Evaluating Satellite-based Rainfall Estimates for Basin-scale Hydrologic Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yilmaz, K. K.; Hogue, T. S.; Hsu, K.; Gupta, H. V.; Mahani, S. E.; Sorooshian, S.

2003-12-01

The reliability of any hydrologic simulation and basin outflow prediction effort depends primarily on the rainfall estimates. The problem of estimating rainfall becomes more obvious in basins with scarce or no rain gauges. We present an evaluation of satellite-based rainfall estimates for basin-scale hydrologic modeling with particular interest in ungauged basins. The initial phase of this study focuses on comparison of mean areal rainfall estimates from ground-based rain gauge network, NEXRAD radar Stage-III, and satellite-based PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks) and their influence on hydrologic model simulations over several basins in the U.S. Six-hourly accumulations of the above competing mean areal rainfall estimates are used as input to the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model. Preliminary experiments for the Leaf River Basin in Mississippi, for the period of March 2000 - June 2002, reveals that seasonality plays an important role in the comparison. There is an overestimation during the summer and underestimation during the winter in satellite-based rainfall with respect to the competing rainfall estimates. The consequence of this result on the hydrologic model is that simulated discharge underestimates the major observed peak discharges during early spring for the basin under study. Future research will entail developing correction procedures, which depend on different factors such as seasonality, geographic location and basin size, for satellite-based rainfall estimates over basins with dense rain gauge network and/or radar coverage. Extension of these correction procedures to satellite-based rainfall estimates over ungauged basins with similar characteristics has the potential for reducing the input uncertainty in ungauged basin modeling efforts.

Scaling up watershed model parameters: flow and load simulations of the Edisto River Basin, South Carolina, 2007-09

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Benedict, Stephen T.; Clark, Jimmy M.; Bradley, Paul M.; Conrads, Paul

2014-01-01

As part of an ongoing effort by the U.S. Geological Survey to expand the understanding of relations among hydrologic, geochemical, and ecological processes that affect fish-tissue mercury concentrations within the Edisto River Basin, analyses and simulations of the hydrology of the Edisto River Basin were made using the topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL). A primary focus of the investigation was to assess the potential for scaling up a previous application of TOPMODEL for the McTier Creek watershed, which is a small headwater catchment to the Edisto River Basin. Scaling up was done in a step-wise manner, beginning with applying the calibration parameters, meteorological data, and topographic-wetness-index data from the McTier Creek TOPMODEL to the Edisto River TOPMODEL. Additional changes were made for subsequent simulations, culminating in the best simulation, which included meteorological and topographic wetness index data from the Edisto River Basin and updated calibration parameters for some of the TOPMODEL calibration parameters. The scaling-up process resulted in nine simulations being made. Simulation 7 best matched the streamflows at station 02175000, Edisto River near Givhans, SC, which was the downstream limit for the TOPMODEL setup, and was obtained by adjusting the scaling factor, including streamflow routing, and using NEXRAD precipitation data for the Edisto River Basin. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of model-fit efficiency and Pearson’s correlation coefficient for simulation 7 were 0.78 and 0.89, respectively. Comparison of goodness-of-fit statistics between measured and simulated daily mean streamflow for the McTier Creek and Edisto River models showed that with calibration, the Edisto River TOPMODEL produced slightly better results than the McTier Creek model, despite the substantial difference in the drainage-area size at the outlet locations for the two models (30.7 and 2,725 square miles, respectively). Along with the TOPMODEL hydrologic simulations, a visualization tool (the Edisto River Data Viewer) was developed to help assess trends and influencing variable in the stream ecosystem. Incorporated into the visualization tool were the water-quality load models TOPLOAD, TOPLOAD–H, and LOADEST. Because the focus of this investigation was on scaling up the models from McTier Creek, water-quality concentrations that were previously collected in the McTier Creek Basin were used in the water-quality load models.

Extension of continental lithosphere - A model for two scales of basin and range deformation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zuber, M. T.; Parmentier, E. M.; Fletcher, R. C.

1986-01-01

The development of a model for deformation in an extending continental lithosphere that is stratified in density and strength is described. The lithosphere model demonstrates that the necking instabilities at two wavelengths originate due to a strong upper crust, a mantle layer, and a weak lower crust. It is observed that the dominant wavelengths of necking are controlled by layer thickness and the strength of the layers control the amplitude of the instabilities. The model is applied to the Basin and Range Province of the western U.S. where deformations in ranges and tile domains are detected. The relation between the Bouguer gravity anomaly and the deformations is studied. The data reveal that the horizontal scale of short wavelength necking correlates with the spacings of individual basins and ranges, and the longer wavelength corresponds to the width of tilt domains. The control of the Basin and Range deformation by two scales of extensional instability is proposed.

Development of a Mechanistically Based, Basin-Scale Stream Temperature Model: Applications to Cumulative Effects Modeling

Treesearch

Douglas Allen; William Dietrich; Peter Baker; Frank Ligon; Bruce Orr

2007-01-01

We describe a mechanistically-based stream model, BasinTemp, which assumes that direct shortwave radiation moderated by riparian and topographic shading, controls stream temperatures during the hottest part of the year. The model was developed to support a temperature TMDL for the South Fork Eel basin in Northern California and couples a GIS and a 1-D energy balance...

Large-Scale Multiphase Flow Modeling of Hydrocarbon Migration and Fluid Sequestration in Faulted Cenozoic Sedimentary Basins, Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, B.; Garven, G.; Boles, J. R.

2011-12-01

Major fault systems play a first-order role in controlling fluid migration in the Earth's crust, and also in the genesis/preservation of hydrocarbon reservoirs in young sedimentary basins undergoing deformation, and therefore understanding the geohydrology of faults is essential for the successful exploration of energy resources. For actively deforming systems like the Santa Barbara Basin and Los Angeles Basin, we have found it useful to develop computational geohydrologic models to study the various coupled and nonlinear processes affecting multiphase fluid migration, including relative permeability, anisotropy, heterogeneity, capillarity, pore pressure, and phase saturation that affect hydrocarbon mobility within fault systems and to search the possible hydrogeologic conditions that enable the natural sequestration of prolific hydrocarbon reservoirs in these young basins. Subsurface geology, reservoir data (fluid pressure-temperature-chemistry), structural reconstructions, and seismic profiles provide important constraints for model geometry and parameter testing, and provide critical insight on how large-scale faults and aquifer networks influence the distribution and the hydrodynamics of liquid and gas-phase hydrocarbon migration. For example, pore pressure changes at a methane seepage site on the seafloor have been carefully analyzed to estimate large-scale fault permeability, which helps to constrain basin-scale natural gas migration models for the Santa Barbara Basin. We have developed our own 2-D multiphase finite element/finite IMPES numerical model, and successfully modeled hydrocarbon gas/liquid movement for intensely faulted and heterogeneous basin profiles of the Los Angeles Basin. Our simulations suggest that hydrocarbon reservoirs that are today aligned with the Newport-Inglewood Fault Zone were formed by massive hydrocarbon flows from deeply buried source beds in the central synclinal region during post-Miocene time. Fault permeability, capillarity forces between the fault and juxtaposition of aquifers/aquitards, source oil saturation, and rate of generation control the efficiency of a petroleum trap and carbon sequestration. This research is focused on natural processes in real geologic systems, but our results will also contribute to an understanding of the subsurface behavior of injected anthropogenic greenhouse gases, especially when targeted storage sites may be influenced by regional faults, which are ubiquitous in the Earth's crust.

Stream classification of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River System to support modeling of aquatic habitat response to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elliott, Caroline M.; Jacobson, Robert B.; Freeman, Mary C.

2014-01-01

A stream classification and associated datasets were developed for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin to support biological modeling of species response to climate change in the southeastern United States. The U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of the Interior’s National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center established the Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) which used downscaled general circulation models to develop landscape-scale assessments of climate change and subsequent effects on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the southeastern United States. The SERAP aquatic and hydrologic dynamics modeling efforts involve multiscale watershed hydrology, stream-temperature, and fish-occupancy models, which all are based on the same stream network. Models were developed for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin and subbasins in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, and for the Upper Roanoke River Basin in Virginia. The stream network was used as the spatial scheme through which information was shared across the various models within SERAP. Because these models operate at different scales, coordinated pair versions of the network were delineated, characterized, and parameterized for coarse- and fine-scale hydrologic and biologic modeling. The stream network used for the SERAP aquatic models was extracted from a 30-meter (m) scale digital elevation model (DEM) using standard topographic analysis of flow accumulation. At the finer scale, reaches were delineated to represent lengths of stream channel with fairly homogenous physical characteristics (mean reach length = 350 m). Every reach in the network is designated with geomorphic attributes including upstream drainage basin area, channel gradient, channel width, valley width, Strahler and Shreve stream order, stream power, and measures of stream confinement. The reach network was aggregated from tributary junction to tributary junction to define segments for the benefit of hydrological, soil erosion, and coarser ecological modeling. Reach attributes are summarized for each segment. In six subbasins segments are assigned additional attributes about barriers (usually impoundments) to fish migration and stream isolation. Segments in the six sub-basins are also attributed with percent urban area for the watershed upstream from the stream segment for each decade from 2010–2100 from models of urban growth. On a broader scale, for application in a coarse-scale species-response model, the stream-network information is aggregated and summarized by 256 drainage subbasins (Hydrologic Response Units) used for watershed hydrologic and stream-temperature models. A model of soil erodibility based on the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation also was developed at this scale to parameterize a model to evaluate stream condition. The reach-scale network was classified using multivariate clustering based on modeled channel width, valley width, and mean reach gradient as variables. The resulting classification consists of a 6-cluster and a 12-cluster classification for every reach in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint Basin. We present an example of the utility of the classification that was tested using the occurrence of two species of darters and two species of minnows in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, the blackbanded darter and Halloween darter, and the bluestripe shiner and blacktail shiner.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Trout Lake Basin, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Trout River Basin at Trout Lake in northern Wisconsin.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Clear Creek Basin, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christiansen, Daniel E.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Clear Creek Basin, near Coralville, Iowa.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Feather River Basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koczot, Kathryn M.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Feather River Basin, California.

Watershed scale response to climate change--South Fork Flathead River Basin, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, Katherine J.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the South Fork Flathead River Basin, Montana.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Cathance Stream Basin, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Cathance Stream Basin, Maine.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Starkweather Coulee Basin, North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vining, Kevin C.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Starkweather Coulee Basin near Webster, North Dakota.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Sagehen Creek Basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Regan, R. Steven

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Sagehen Creek Basin near Truckee, California.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Sprague River Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risley, John; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Sprague River Basin near Chiloquin, Oregon.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Black Earth Creek Basin, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Walker, John F.; Westenbroek, Steven M.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Black Earth Creek Basin, Wisconsin.

Watershed scale response to climate change--East River Basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Battaglin, William A.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the East River Basin, Colorado.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Naches River Basin, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, Mark C.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Naches River Basin below Tieton River in Washington.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Flint River Basin, Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Flint River Basin at Montezuma, Georgia.

Classification of Prairie basins by their hysteretic connected functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shook, K.; Pomeroy, J. W.

2017-12-01

Diagnosing climate change impacts in the post-glacial landscapes of the North American Prairies through hydrological modelling is made difficult by drainage basin physiography. The region is cold, dry and flat with poorly developed stream networks, and so the basin area that is hydrologically connected to the stream outlet varies with basin depressional storage. The connected area controls the contributing area for runoff reaching the stream outlet. As depressional storage fills, ponds spill from one to another; the chain of spilling ponds allows water to flow over the landscape and increases the connected area of the basin. As depressional storage decreases, the connected fraction drops dramatically. Detailed, fine-scale models and remote sensing have shown that the relationship between connected area and the depressional storage is hysteretic in Prairie basins and that the nature of hysteresis varies with basin physiography. This hysteresis needs to be represented in hydrological models to calculate contributing area, and therefore streamflow hydrographs. Parameterisations of the hysteresis are needed for large-scale models used for climate change diagnosis. However, use of parameterisations of hysteresis requires guidance on how to represent them for a particular basin. This study shows that it is possible to relate the shape of hysteretic functions as determined by detailed models to the overall physiography of the basin, such as the fraction of the basin below the outlet, and remote sensing estimates of depressional storage, using the size distribution and location of maximum ponded water areas. By classifying basin physiography, the hysteresis of connected area - storage relationships can be estimated for basins that do not have high-resolution topographic data, and without computationally-expensive high-resolution modelling.

Characteristic mega-basin water storage behavior using GRACE.

PubMed

Reager, J T; Famiglietti, James S

2013-06-01

[1] A long-standing challenge for hydrologists has been a lack of observational data on global-scale basin hydrological behavior. With observations from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, hydrologists are now able to study terrestrial water storage for large river basins (>200,000 km 2 ), with monthly time resolution. Here we provide results of a time series model of basin-averaged GRACE terrestrial water storage anomaly and Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation for the world's largest basins. We address the short (10 year) length of the GRACE record by adopting a parametric spectral method to calculate frequency-domain transfer functions of storage response to precipitation forcing and then generalize these transfer functions based on large-scale basin characteristics, such as percent forest cover and basin temperature. Among the parameters tested, results show that temperature, soil water-holding capacity, and percent forest cover are important controls on relative storage variability, while basin area and mean terrain slope are less important. The derived empirical relationships were accurate (0.54 ≤  E f  ≤ 0.84) in modeling global-scale water storage anomaly time series for the study basins using only precipitation, average basin temperature, and two land-surface variables, offering the potential for synthesis of basin storage time series beyond the GRACE observational period. Such an approach could be applied toward gap filling between current and future GRACE missions and for predicting basin storage given predictions of future precipitation.

Characteristic mega-basin water storage behavior using GRACE

PubMed Central

Reager, J T; Famiglietti, James S

2013-01-01

[1] A long-standing challenge for hydrologists has been a lack of observational data on global-scale basin hydrological behavior. With observations from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, hydrologists are now able to study terrestrial water storage for large river basins (>200,000 km2), with monthly time resolution. Here we provide results of a time series model of basin-averaged GRACE terrestrial water storage anomaly and Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation for the world’s largest basins. We address the short (10 year) length of the GRACE record by adopting a parametric spectral method to calculate frequency-domain transfer functions of storage response to precipitation forcing and then generalize these transfer functions based on large-scale basin characteristics, such as percent forest cover and basin temperature. Among the parameters tested, results show that temperature, soil water-holding capacity, and percent forest cover are important controls on relative storage variability, while basin area and mean terrain slope are less important. The derived empirical relationships were accurate (0.54 ≤ Ef ≤ 0.84) in modeling global-scale water storage anomaly time series for the study basins using only precipitation, average basin temperature, and two land-surface variables, offering the potential for synthesis of basin storage time series beyond the GRACE observational period. Such an approach could be applied toward gap filling between current and future GRACE missions and for predicting basin storage given predictions of future precipitation. PMID:24563556

Scaling Stream Flow Response to Forest Disturbance: the SID Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buttle, J. M.; Beall, F. D.; Creed, I. F.; Gordon, A. M.; Mackereth, R.; McLaughlin, J. W.; Sibley, P. K.

2004-05-01

We do not have a good understanding of the hydrologic implications of forest harvesting in Ontario, either for current or alternative management approaches. Attempts to address these implications face a three-fold problem: data on hydrologic response to forest disturbance in Ontario are lacking; most studies of these responses have been in regions with forest cover and hydrologic conditions that differ from the Ontario context; and these studies have generally been conducted at relatively small scales (<1 km2). It is generally assumed that hydrologic changes induced by forest disturbance should diminish with increasing scale due to the buffering capacity of large drainage basins. Recent modeling exercises and reanalysis of paired-basin results call this widespread applicability of this assumption into question, with important implications for assessing the cumulative impacts of forest disturbance on basin stream flow. The SID (Scalable Indicators of Disturbance) project combines stream flow monitoring across basin scales with the RHESSys modeling framework to identify forest disturbance impacts on stream flow characteristics in Ontario's major forest ecozones. As a precursor to identifying stream flow response to forest disturbance, we are examining the relative control of basin geology, topography, typology and topology on stream flow characteristics under undisturbed conditions. This will assist in identifying the dominant hydrologic processes controlling basin stream flow that must be incorporated into the RHESSys model framework in order to emulate forest disturbance and its hydrologic impacts. We present preliminary results on stream flow characteristics in a low-relief boreal forest landscape, and explore how the dominant processes influencing these characteristics change with basin scale in this landscape under both reference and disturbance conditions.

A multi-approach and multi-scale study on water quantity and quality changes in the Tapajós River basin, Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bezerra Nóbrega, Rodolfo Luiz; Lamparter, Gabriele; Hughes, Harold; Chenjerayi Guzha, Alphonce; Santos Silva Amorim, Ricardo; Gerold, Gerhard

2018-04-01

We analyzed changes in water quantity and quality at different spatial scales within the Tapajós River basin (Amazon) based on experimental fieldwork, hydrological modelling, and statistical time-trend analysis. At a small scale, we compared the river discharge (Q) and suspended-sediment concentrations (SSC) of two adjacent micro-catchments ( < 1 km2) with similar characteristics but contrasting land uses (forest vs. pasture) using empirical data from field measurements. At an intermediary scale, we simulated the hydrological responses of a sub-basin of the Tapajós (Jamanxim River basin, 37 400 km2), using a hydrological model (SWAT) and land-use change scenario in order to quantify the changes in the water balance components due to deforestation. At the Tapajós' River basin scale, we investigated trends in Q, sediments, hydrochemistry, and geochemistry in the river using available data from the HYBAM Observation Service. The results in the micro-catchments showed a higher runoff coefficient in the pasture (0.67) than in the forest catchment (0.28). At this scale, the SSC were also significantly greater during stormflows in the pasture than in the forest catchment. At the Jamanxim watershed scale, the hydrological modelling results showed a 2 % increase in Q and a 5 % reduction of baseflow contribution to total Q after a conversion of 22 % of forest to pasture. In the Tapajós River, however, trend analysis did not show any significant trend in discharge and sediment concentration. However, we found upward trends in dissolved organic carbon and NO3- over the last 20 years. Although the magnitude of anthropogenic impact has shown be scale-dependent, we were able to find changes in the Tapajós River basin in streamflow, sediment concentration, and water quality across all studied scales.

Basin-scale availability of salmonid spawning gravel as influenced by channel type and hydraulic roughness in mountain catchments.

Treesearch

John M. Buffington; David R. Montgomery; Harvey M. Greenberg

2004-01-01

A general framework is presented for examining the effects of channel type and associated hydraulic roughness on salmonid spawning-gravel availability in mountain catchments. Digital elevation models are coupled with grain-size predictions to provide basin-scale assessments of the potential extent and spatial pattern of spawning gravels. To demonstrate both the model...

Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers

PubMed Central

Ponti, Luigi; Gutierrez, Andrew Paul; Ruti, Paolo Michele; Dell’Aquila, Alessandro

2014-01-01

The Mediterranean Basin is a climate and biodiversity hot spot, and climate change threatens agro-ecosystems such as olive, an ancient drought-tolerant crop of considerable ecological and socioeconomic importance. Climate change will impact the interactions of olive and the obligate olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae), and alter the economics of olive culture across the Basin. We estimate the effects of climate change on the dynamics and interaction of olive and the fly using physiologically based demographic models in a geographic information system context as driven by daily climate change scenario weather. A regional climate model that includes fine-scale representation of the effects of topography and the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on regional climate was used to scale the global climate data. The system model for olive/olive fly was used as the production function in our economic analysis, replacing the commonly used production-damage control function. Climate warming will affect olive yield and fly infestation levels across the Basin, resulting in economic winners and losers at the local and regional scales. At the local scale, profitability of small olive farms in many marginal areas of Europe and elsewhere in the Basin will decrease, leading to increased abandonment. These marginal farms are critical to conserving soil, maintaining biodiversity, and reducing fire risk in these areas. Our fine-scale bioeconomic approach provides a realistic prototype for assessing climate change impacts in other Mediterranean agro-ecosystems facing extant and new invasive pests. PMID:24706833

Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers.

PubMed

Ponti, Luigi; Gutierrez, Andrew Paul; Ruti, Paolo Michele; Dell'Aquila, Alessandro

2014-04-15

The Mediterranean Basin is a climate and biodiversity hot spot, and climate change threatens agro-ecosystems such as olive, an ancient drought-tolerant crop of considerable ecological and socioeconomic importance. Climate change will impact the interactions of olive and the obligate olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae), and alter the economics of olive culture across the Basin. We estimate the effects of climate change on the dynamics and interaction of olive and the fly using physiologically based demographic models in a geographic information system context as driven by daily climate change scenario weather. A regional climate model that includes fine-scale representation of the effects of topography and the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on regional climate was used to scale the global climate data. The system model for olive/olive fly was used as the production function in our economic analysis, replacing the commonly used production-damage control function. Climate warming will affect olive yield and fly infestation levels across the Basin, resulting in economic winners and losers at the local and regional scales. At the local scale, profitability of small olive farms in many marginal areas of Europe and elsewhere in the Basin will decrease, leading to increased abandonment. These marginal farms are critical to conserving soil, maintaining biodiversity, and reducing fire risk in these areas. Our fine-scale bioeconomic approach provides a realistic prototype for assessing climate change impacts in other Mediterranean agro-ecosystems facing extant and new invasive pests.

Comprehensive Representation of Hydrologic and Geomorphic Process Coupling in Numerical Models: Internal Dynamics and Basin Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Istanbulluoglu, E.; Vivoni, E. R.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Bras, R. L.

2005-12-01

Landscape morphology has an important control on the spatial and temporal organization of basin hydrologic response to climate forcing, affecting soil moisture redistribution as well as vegetation function. On the other hand, erosion, driven by hydrology and modulated by vegetation, produces landforms over geologic time scales that reflect characteristic signatures of the dominant land forming process. Responding to extreme climate events or anthropogenic disturbances of the land surface, infrequent but rapid forms of erosion (e.g., arroyo development, landsliding) can modify topography such that basin hydrology is significantly influenced. Despite significant advances in both hydrologic and geomorphic modeling over the past two decades, the dynamic interactions between basin hydrology, geomorphology and terrestrial ecology are not adequately captured in current model frameworks. In order to investigate hydrologic-geomorphic-ecologic interactions at the basin scale we present initial efforts in integrating the CHILD landscape evolution model (Tucker et al. 2001) with the tRIBS hydrology model (Ivanov et al. 2004), both developed in a common software environment. In this talk, we present preliminary results of the numerical modeling of the coupled evolution of basin hydro-geomorphic response and resulting landscape morphology in two sets of examples. First, we discuss the long-term evolution of both the hydrologic response and the resulting basin morphology from an initially uplifted plateau. In the second set of modeling experiments, we implement changes in climate and land-use to an existing topography and compare basin hydrologic response to the model results when landscape form is fixed (e.g. no coupling between hydrology and geomorphology). Model results stress the importance of internal basin dynamics, including runoff generation mechanisms and hydrologic states, in shaping hydrologic response as well as the importance of employing comprehensive conceptualizations of hydrology in modeling landscape evolution.

Digital spatial data for predicted nitrate and arsenic concentrations in basin-fill aquifers of the Southwest Principal Aquifers study area

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKinney, Tim S.; Anning, David W.

2012-01-01

This product "Digital spatial data for predicted nitrate and arsenic concentrations in basin-fill aquifers of the Southwest Principal Aquifers study area" is a 1:250,000-scale vector spatial dataset developed as part of a regional Southwest Principal Aquifers (SWPA) study (Anning and others, 2012). The study examined the vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers in the southwestern United States to nitrate contamination and arsenic enrichment. Statistical models were developed by using the random forest classifier algorithm to predict concentrations of nitrate and arsenic across a model grid that represents local- and basin-scale measures of source, aquifer susceptibility, and geochemical conditions.

Parameterizing a Large-scale Water Balance Model in Regions with Sparse Data: The Tigris-Euphrates River Basins as an Example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flint, A. L.; Flint, L. E.

2010-12-01

The characterization of hydrologic response to current and future climates is of increasing importance to many countries around the world that rely heavily on changing and uncertain water supplies. Large-scale models that can calculate a spatially distributed water balance and elucidate groundwater recharge and surface water flows for large river basins provide a basis of estimates of changes due to future climate projections. Unfortunately many regions in the world have very sparse data for parameterization or calibration of hydrologic models. For this study, the Tigris and Euphrates River basins were used for the development of a regional water balance model at 180-m spatial scale, using the Basin Characterization Model, to estimate historical changes in groundwater recharge and surface water flows in the countries of Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. Necessary input parameters include precipitation, air temperature, potential evapotranspiration (PET), soil properties and thickness, and estimates of bulk permeability from geologic units. Data necessary for calibration includes snow cover, reservoir volumes (from satellite data and historic, pre-reservoir elevation data) and streamflow measurements. Global datasets for precipitation, air temperature, and PET were available at very large spatial scales (50 km) through the world scale databases, finer scale WorldClim climate data, and required downscaling to fine scales for model input. Soils data were available through world scale soil maps but required parameterization on the basis of textural data to estimate soil hydrologic properties. Soil depth was interpreted from geomorphologic interpretation and maps of quaternary deposits, and geologic materials were categorized from generalized geologic maps of each country. Estimates of bedrock permeability were made on the basis of literature and data on driller’s logs and adjusted during calibration of the model to streamflow measurements where available. Results of historical water balance calculations throughout the Tigris and Euphrates River basins will be shown along with details of processing input data to provide spatial continuity and downscaling. Basic water availability analysis for recharge and runoff is readily available from a determinisitic solar radiation energy balance model and a global potential evapotranspiration model and global estimates of precipitation and air temperature. Future climate estimates can be readily applied to the same water and energy balance models to evaluate future water availability for countries around the globe.

A Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Scheme for Estimating Erosion Rates Under Current Climate Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowman, L.; Barros, A. P.

2014-12-01

Computational modeling of surface erosion processes is inherently difficult because of the four-dimensional nature of the problem and the multiple temporal and spatial scales that govern individual mechanisms. Landscapes are modified via surface and fluvial erosion and exhumation, each of which takes place over a range of time scales. Traditional field measurements of erosion/exhumation rates are scale dependent, often valid for a single point-wise location or averaging over large aerial extents and periods with intense and mild erosion. We present a method of remotely estimating erosion rates using a Bayesian hierarchical model based upon the stream power erosion law (SPEL). A Bayesian approach allows for estimating erosion rates using the deterministic relationship given by the SPEL and data on channel slopes and precipitation at the basin and sub-basin scale. The spatial scale associated with this framework is the elevation class, where each class is characterized by distinct morphologic behavior observed through different modes in the distribution of basin outlet elevations. Interestingly, the distributions of first-order outlets are similar in shape and extent to the distribution of precipitation events (i.e. individual storms) over a 14-year period between 1998-2011. We demonstrate an application of the Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework for five basins and one intermontane basin located in the central Andes between 5S and 20S. Using remotely sensed data of current annual precipitation rates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and topography from a high resolution (3 arc-seconds) digital elevation map (DEM), our erosion rate estimates are consistent with decadal-scale estimates based on landslide mapping and sediment flux observations and 1-2 orders of magnitude larger than most millennial and million year timescale estimates from thermochronology and cosmogenic nuclides.

Comparison of local- to regional-scale estimates of ground-water recharge in Minnesota, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Delin, G.N.; Healy, R.W.; Lorenz, D.L.; Nimmo, J.R.

2007-01-01

Regional ground-water recharge estimates for Minnesota were compared to estimates made on the basis of four local- and basin-scale methods. Three local-scale methods (unsaturated-zone water balance, water-table fluctuations (WTF) using three approaches, and age dating of ground water) yielded point estimates of recharge that represent spatial scales from about 1 to about 1000 m2. A fourth method (RORA, a basin-scale analysis of streamflow records using a recession-curve-displacement technique) yielded recharge estimates at a scale of 10–1000s of km2. The RORA basin-scale recharge estimates were regionalized to estimate recharge for the entire State of Minnesota on the basis of a regional regression recharge (RRR) model that also incorporated soil and climate data. Recharge rates estimated by the RRR model compared favorably to the local and basin-scale recharge estimates. RRR estimates at study locations were about 41% less on average than the unsaturated-zone water-balance estimates, ranged from 44% greater to 12% less than estimates that were based on the three WTF approaches, were about 4% less than the age dating of ground-water estimates, and were about 5% greater than the RORA estimates. Of the methods used in this study, the WTF method is the simplest and easiest to apply. Recharge estimates made on the basis of the UZWB method were inconsistent with the results from the other methods. Recharge estimates using the RRR model could be a good source of input for regional ground-water flow models; RRR model results currently are being applied for this purpose in USGS studies elsewhere.

Scaling up watershed model parameters--Flow and load simulations of the Edisto River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Benedict, Stephen T.; Clark, Jimmy M.; Bradley, Paul M.; Conrads, Paul

2014-01-01

The Edisto River is the longest and largest river system completely contained in South Carolina and is one of the longest free flowing blackwater rivers in the United States. The Edisto River basin also has fish-tissue mercury concentrations that are some of the highest recorded in the United States. As part of an effort by the U.S. Geological Survey to expand the understanding of relations among hydrologic, geochemical, and ecological processes that affect fish-tissue mercury concentrations within the Edisto River basin, analyses and simulations of the hydrology of the Edisto River basin were made with the topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL). The potential for scaling up a previous application of TOPMODEL for the McTier Creek watershed, which is a small headwater catchment to the Edisto River basin, was assessed. Scaling up was done in a step-wise process beginning with applying the calibration parameters, meteorological data, and topographic wetness index data from the McTier Creek TOPMODEL to the Edisto River TOPMODEL. Additional changes were made with subsequent simulations culminating in the best simulation, which included meteorological and topographic wetness index data from the Edisto River basin and updated calibration parameters for some of the TOPMODEL calibration parameters. Comparison of goodness-of-fit statistics between measured and simulated daily mean streamflow for the two models showed that with calibration, the Edisto River TOPMODEL produced slightly better results than the McTier Creek model, despite the significant difference in the drainage-area size at the outlet locations for the two models (30.7 and 2,725 square miles, respectively). Along with the TOPMODEL hydrologic simulations, a visualization tool (the Edisto River Data Viewer) was developed to help assess trends and influencing variables in the stream ecosystem. Incorporated into the visualization tool were the water-quality load models TOPLOAD, TOPLOAD-H, and LOADEST. Because the focus of this investigation was on scaling up the models from McTier Creek, water-quality concentrations that were previously collected in the McTier Creek basin were used in the water-quality load models.

Tool to address green roof widespread implementation effect in flood characteristics for water management planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tassi, R.; Lorenzini, F.; Allasia, D. G.

2015-06-01

In the last decades, new approaches were adopted to manage stormwater as close to its source as possible through technologies and devices that preserve and recreate natural landscape features. Green Roofs (GR) are examples of these devices that are also incentivized by city's stormwater management plans. Several studies show that GR decreases on-site runoff from impervious surfaces, however, the analysis of the effect of widespread implementation of GR in the flood characteristics at the urban basin scale in subtropical areas are little discussed, mainly because of the absence of data. Thereby, this paper shows results related to the monitoring of an extensive modular GR under subtropical weather conditions, the development of a rainfall-runoff model based on the modified Curve Number (CN) and SCS Triangular Unit Hydrograph (TUH) methods and the analysis of large-scale impact of GR by modelling different basins. The model was calibrated against observed data and showed that GR absorbed almost all the smaller storms and reduced runoff even during the most intense rainfall. The overall CN was estimated in 83 (consistent with available literature) with the shape of hydrographs well reproduced. Large-scale modelling (in basins ranging from 0.03 ha to several square kilometers) showed that the widespread use of GRs reduced peak flows (volumes) around 57% (48%) at source and 38% (32%) at the basin scale. Thus, this research validated a tool for the assessment of structural management measures (specifically GR) to address changes in flood characteristics in the city's water management planning. From the application of this model it was concluded that even if the efficiency of GR decreases as the basin scale increase they still provide a good option to cope with urbanization impact.

Tectonic evolution of the Arizaro basin of the Puna plateau, NW Argentina: Implications for plateau-scale processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyd, John D.

Sedimentary basins of the Altiplano-Puna Plateau within the Andean Plateau in South America contain the record of retro-arc foreland basin evolution during the Cenozoic. The deformation of these basins is characterized by high angle reverse faults and thrusts deforming crystalline basement and sedimentary covers. The mechanism/s responsible for deformation within the region are not fully understood in detail. The relative abundance of intercalated tuffs within these basins and those within the bounding Eastern Cordillera enables the spatial-temporal pattern of deformation across the orogen to be constrained. This study uses the systematic combination of structural, geochronologic and sedimentalogical techniques applied to Cenozoic sedimentary rocks within the Arizaro Basin to investigate the timing of deformation across within the region in order to test two end member models for basin deformation in response to lithospheric processes. The first model attributes the deformation of the basins to internal deformation within an orogenic wedge as part of the taper building process required prior to propagation eastward towards the foreland basin system. The second model attributes basin deformation to isostatic adjustments resulting from small-scale lithospheric foundering. Detailed geologic mapping of the Arizaro Basin reveals a complex interplay of coeval thick-skinned and thin-skinned deformation, which deforms the thick Miocene succession of fluvial-lacustrine strata in both a brittle and ductile manner. Zircon U-Pb analyses of intercalated tuffs from the Vizcachera Formation reveal that approximately three km of the section was deposited between the Early Miocene (ca. 18.3) and the Middle Miocene (ca. 13.9). One tuff in the uppermost Vizcachera Formation constrains the lower limit of timing of deformation for the Arizaro Basin to be 13.9 +/- 0.7 Ma. When combined with published geochronological data across the Puna Plateau and Eastern Cordillera, the new data presented in this study constrains timing of deformation within the basin and the greater Arizaro area to the Middle Miocene. This study also indicates that the spatial-temporal patterns of deformation are likely the result of a combination of both models mentioned above with critical taper theory dominating early deformation associated with basin formation and small-scale lithospheric foundering dominating the later deformation in the Middle Miocene. Deformation at the wedge tip continues in the Eastern Cordillera seemingly without interruption, suggesting that the effects of the isostatic pull-down associated with small-scale lithospheric foundering is localized and does not significantly affect the taper of the orogenic wedge as a whole. Thus, allowing the normal cycle of orogenic wedge propagation to occur, uninhibited.

Scale Issues in Modeling the Water Resources Sector in National Economic Models: A Case study of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strzepek, K. M.; Kirshen, P.; Yohe, G.

2001-05-01

The fundamental theme of this research was to investigate tradeoffs in model resolution for modeling water resources in the context of national economic development and capital investment decisions.. Based on a case study of China, the research team has developed water resource models at relatively fine scales, then investigated how they can be aggregated to regional or national scales and for use in national level planning decisions or global scale integrated assessment models of food and/or environmental change issues. The team has developed regional water supply and water demand functions.. Simplifying and aggregating the supply and demand functions will allow reduced form functions of the water sector for inclusion in large scale national economic models. Water Supply Cost functions were developed looking at both surface and groundwater supplies. Surface Water: Long time series of flows at the mouths of the 36 major river sub-basins in China are used in conjunction with different basin reservoir storage quantities to obtain storage-yield curves. These are then combined with reservoir and transmission cost data to obtain yield-cost or surface water demand curves. The methodology to obtain the long time series of flows for each basin is to fit a simple abcd water balance model to each basin. The costs of reservoir storage have been estimated by using a methodology developed in the USA that relates marginal storage costs to existing storage, slope and geological conditions. USA costs functions have then been adjusted to Chinese costs. The costs of some actual dams in China were used to "ground-truth" the methodology. Groundwater: The purpose of the groundwater work is to estimate the recharge in each basin, and the depths and quality of water of aquifers. A byproduct of the application of the abcd water balance model is the recharge. Depths and quality of aquifers are being taken from many separate reports on groundwater in different parts of China; we have been unable to find any global or regional datasets of groundwater.. Combining Surface and Groundwater Supply Functions Water Demand Curves. Water Use data is reported on political regions. Water Supply is reported and modeled on river basin regions. It is necessary to allocate water demands to river basins. To accomplish this China's 9 major river basins were divided into 36 hydroeconomic regions. The counties were then allocated to one of the 36-hydroeconomic zones. The county-level water use data was aggregated to 5 major water use sectors: 1)industry; 2)urban municipal and vegetable gardens: 3) major irrigation; 4) Energy and 5)Other agriculture (forestry, pasture; fishery). Sectoral Demand functions that include price and income elasticity were developed for the 5 sectors for each of the 9 major river basin. The supply and demand curves were aggregated at a variety of geographical scales as well as levels of economic sectoral aggregation. Implications for investment and sustainable development policies were examined for the various aggregation using partial and general equilibrium modeling of the Chinese economy. These results and policy implications for China as well as insights and recommendation for other developing countries will be presented.

Geologic Storage at the Basin Scale: Region-Based Basin Modeling, Powder River Basin (PRB), NE Wyoming and SE Montana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melick, J. J.; Gardner, M. H.

2008-12-01

Carbon capture and storage from the over 2000 power plants is estimated at 3-5 GT/yr, which requires large- scale geologic storage of greenhouse gasses in sedimentary basins. Unfortunately, determination of basin scale storage capacity is currently based on oversimplified geologic models that are difficult to validate. Simplification involves reducing the number of geologic parameters incorporated into the model, modeling with large grid cells, and treatment of subsurface reservoirs as homogeneous media. The latter problem reflects the focus of current models on fluid and/or fluid-rock interactions rather than fluid movement and migration pathways. For example, homogeneous models over emphasize fluid behavior, like the buoyancy of super-critical CO2, and hence overestimate leakage rates. Fluid mixing and fluid-rock interactions cannot be assessed with models that only investigate these reactions at a human time scale. Preliminary and conservative estimates of the total pore volume for the PRB suggest 200 GT of supercritical CO2 can be stored in this typical onshore sedimentary basin. The connected pore volume (CPV) however is not included in this estimate. Geological characterization of the CPV relates subsurface storage units to the most prolific reservoir classes (RCs). The CPV, number of well penetrations, supercritical storage area, and potential leakage pathways characterize each RC. Within each RC, a hierarchy of stratigraphic cycles is populated with stationary sedimentation regions that control rock property distributions by correlating environment of deposition (EOD) to CPV. The degree to which CPV varies between RCs depends on the geology and attendant heterogeneity retained in the fluid flow model. Region-based modeling of the PRB incorporates 28000 wells correlated across a 70,000 Km2 area, 2 km thick on average. Within this basin, five of the most productive RCs were identified from production history and placed in a fourfold stratigraphic framework (second- through fourth-order cycles). Within the small- scale 4th-order sequences (30-150-m thick, 16 total), sedimentation regions, each corresponding to an EOD, are defined by thickness, lithology and core-calibrated well-log patterns. This talk illustrates the workflow by focusing on one of the 16 layers in the basin-scale model. Isopach maps from this sample layer conform to depositional patterns confirmed through definition of five core-calibrated, well-log defined sedimentation regions. Lithology distributions also conform to thickness trends in nearshore deltas, but not in offshore regions, where sand-rich and sheet-like, but thin-bedded sandstones are flanked by mud-rich intervals of equivalent thickness. These maps represent sedimentation patterns confined by basal erosional sequence boundary and basin-wide bentonite, yet containing up to seven high-frequency sequence boundaries. To illustrate over simplification problems in this same layer, a 14000 km2 sample area is 600 km3 and using standard averaging methods, which are considered to be geologic in origin, the CPV is 16 km3. However, averaging increases connectivity with high CPV more uniformly distributed; significantly, the key mud belt region separating nearshore from offshore sandstones is not represented. Region-based modeling of this layer yields 13 km3 (110 Bbl). Furthermore, significant vertical leakage may exist from the 20000 well penetrations and faults and fractures along the western basin margin. This example illustrates the importance of accurately characterizing heterogeneity and distributing CPV using sedimentation regions.

Description, instructions, and verification for Basinsoft, a computer program to quantify drainage- basin characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harvey, Craig A.; Eash, David A.

1996-01-01

Statistical comparison tests indicate Basinsoft quantifications are not significantly different from manual topographic-map measurements for 9 of 10 basin characteristics tested. The results also indicate that elevation contours generated by ARC/INFO from l:250,000-scale digital elevation model (DEM) data are over-generalized when compared to elevation contours shown on l:250,000-scale topographic maps, and that quantification of basin-slope thus is underestimated using DEM data. A qualitative comparison test indicated that the Basinsoft module used to quantify basin slope is valid and that differences in the quantification of basin slope are due to sourcedata differences.

From mountains to the ocean: quantifying connectivity along the river corridor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez-Velez, J. D.; Harvey, J. W.

2015-12-01

Rivers are the landscape's arteries; they convey water, solutes, energy, and living organisms from the hillslopes, floodplains, aquifers, and atmosphere to the oceans. As water moves along this complex circulatory system, it is continuously exchanged with the surrounding alluvial aquifer, termed hyporheic exchange, which strongly conditions and constrains the biogeochemical evolution of water at the local scale with basin-scale consequences. Over the last two decades, considerable efforts have focused on the use of detailed mathematical models to explore the hydrodynamics and biogeochemical effect of hyporheic exchange at the scale of individual channel morphologies. While these efforts are essential to gain mechanistic understanding, their computational demand makes them impractical for basin applications. In this talk, a parsimonious but physically based model of hyporheic flow for application in large river basins is presented: Networks with EXchange and Subsurface Storage (NEXSS). At the core of NEXSS are the up-scaling of detailed mathematical models and a characterization of the channel geometry, geomorphic features, and related hydraulic drivers based on scaling equations from the literature and readily accessible information such as river discharge, width, grain size, sinuosity, channel slope, and regional groundwater gradients. As a proof-of-concept, we use NEXSS to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of hyporheic exchange and denitrification potential along the Mississippi River basin. This modeling approach allows us to map the location of critical hot spots for biogeochemical transformation, their geomorphic drivers, and cumulative effect. Finally, we discuss new avenues to incorporate exchange with floodplains and ponded waters, which also play a key role in water quality along the river corridor. This new modeling approach is critical to transition from purely empirical continental models of water quality to hybrid approaches that incorporate fundamental physics and take advantage of available hydrogeomorphic data. In particular, hybrid models will be instrumental for predicting outcomes of river basin management practices under present and future socio-economic and climatic conditions.

Combining Mechanistic Approaches for Studying Eco-Hydro-Geomorphic Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francipane, A.; Ivanov, V.; Akutina, Y.; Noto, V.; Istanbullouglu, E.

2008-12-01

Vegetation interacts with hydrology and geomorphic form and processes of a river basin in profound ways. Despite recent advances in hydrological modeling, the dynamic coupling between these processes is yet to be adequately captured at the basin scale to elucidate key features of process interaction and their role in the organization of vegetation and landscape morphology. In this study, we present a blueprint for integrating a geomorphic component into the physically-based, spatially distributed ecohydrological model, tRIBS- VEGGIE, which reproduces essential water and energy processes over the complex topography of a river basin and links them to the basic plant life regulatory processes. We present a preliminary design of the integrated modeling framework in which hillslope and channel erosion processes at the catchment scale, will be coupled with vegetation-hydrology dynamics. We evaluate the developed framework by applying the integrated model to Lucky Hills basin, a sub-catchment of the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (Arizona). The evaluation is carried out by comparing sediment yields at the basin outlet, that follows a detailed verification of simulated land-surface energy partition, biomass dynamics, and soil moisture states.

Deriving Scaling Factors Using a Global Hydrological Model to Restore GRACE Total Water Storage Changes for China's Yangtze River Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Long, Di; Yang, Yuting; Yoshihide, Wada; Hong, Yang; Liang, Wei; Chen, Yaning; Yong, Bin; Hou, Aizhong; Wei, Jiangfeng; Chen, Lu

2015-01-01

This study used a global hydrological model (GHM), PCR-GLOBWB, which simulates surface water storage changes, natural and human induced groundwater storage changes, and the interactions between surface water and subsurface water, to generate scaling factors by mimicking low-pass filtering of GRACE signals. Signal losses in GRACE data were subsequently restored by the scaling factors from PCR-GLOBWB. Results indicate greater spatial heterogeneity in scaling factor from PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0 than that from GLDAS-1 Noah due to comprehensive simulation of surface and subsurface water storage changes for PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0. Filtered GRACE total water storage (TWS) changes applied with PCR-GLOBWB scaling factors show closer agreement with water budget estimates of TWS changes than those with scaling factors from other land surface models (LSMs) in China's Yangtze River basin. Results of this study develop a further understanding of the behavior of scaling factors from different LSMs or GHMs over hydrologically complex basins, and could be valuable in providing more accurate TWS changes for hydrological applications (e.g., monitoring drought and groundwater storage depletion) over regions where human-induced interactions between surface water and subsurface water are intensive.

Modeling basin- and plume-scale processes of CO2 storage for full-scale deployment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Q.; Birkholzer, J.T.; Mehnert, E.

Integrated modeling of basin- and plume-scale processes induced by full-scale deployment of CO{sub 2} storage was applied to the Mt. Simon Aquifer in the Illinois Basin. A three-dimensional mesh was generated with local refinement around 20 injection sites, with approximately 30 km spacing. A total annual injection rate of 100 Mt CO{sub 2} over 50 years was used. The CO{sub 2}-brine flow at the plume scale and the single-phase flow at the basin scale were simulated. Simulation results show the overall shape of a CO{sub 2} plume consisting of a typical gravity-override subplume in the bottom injection zone of highmore » injectivity and a pyramid-shaped subplume in the overlying multilayered Mt. Simon, indicating the important role of a secondary seal with relatively low-permeability and high-entry capillary pressure. The secondary-seal effect is manifested by retarded upward CO{sub 2} migration as a result of multiple secondary seals, coupled with lateral preferential CO{sub 2} viscous fingering through high-permeability layers. The plume width varies from 9.0 to 13.5 km at 200 years, indicating the slow CO{sub 2} migration and no plume interference between storage sites. On the basin scale, pressure perturbations propagate quickly away from injection centers, interfere after less than 1 year, and eventually reach basin margins. The simulated pressure buildup of 35 bar in the injection area is not expected to affect caprock geomechanical integrity. Moderate pressure buildup is observed in Mt. Simon in northern Illinois. However, its impact on groundwater resources is less than the hydraulic drawdown induced by long-term extensive pumping from overlying freshwater aquifers.« less

Watershed scale response to climate change--Pomperaug River Watershed, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjerklie, David M.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Pomperaug River Basin at Southbury, Connecticut.

Modelling uncertainties and possible future trends of precipitation and temperature for 10 sub-basins in Columbia River Basin (CRB)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, A.; Rana, A.; Qin, Y.; Moradkhani, H.

2014-12-01

Trends and changes in future climatic parameters, such as, precipitation and temperature have been a central part of climate change studies. In the present work, we have analyzed the seasonal and yearly trends and uncertainties of prediction in all the 10 sub-basins of Columbia River Basin (CRB) for future time period of 2010-2099. The work is carried out using 2 different sets of statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCMs) projection datasets i.e. Bias correction and statistical downscaling (BCSD) generated at Portland State University and The Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) generated at University of Idaho. The analysis is done for with 10 GCM downscaled products each from CMIP5 daily dataset totaling to 40 different downscaled products for robust analysis. Summer, winter and yearly trend analysis is performed for all the 10 sub-basins using linear regression (significance tested by student t test) and Mann Kendall test (0.05 percent significance level), for precipitation (P), temperature maximum (Tmax) and temperature minimum (Tmin). Thereafter, all the parameters are modelled for uncertainty, across all models, in all the 10 sub-basins and across the CRB for future scenario periods. Results have indicated in varied degree of trends for all the sub-basins, mostly pointing towards a significant increase in all three climatic parameters, for all the seasons and yearly considerations. Uncertainty analysis have reveled very high change in all the parameters across models and sub-basins under consideration. Basin wide uncertainty analysis is performed to corroborate results from smaller, sub-basin scale. Similar trends and uncertainties are reported on the larger scale as well. Interestingly, both trends and uncertainties are higher during winter period than during summer, contributing to large part of the yearly change.

Integrating Remote Sensing Information Into A Distributed Hydrological Model for Improving Water Budget Predictions in Large-scale Basins through Data Assimilation.

PubMed

Qin, Changbo; Jia, Yangwen; Su, Z; Zhou, Zuhao; Qiu, Yaqin; Suhui, Shen

2008-07-29

This paper investigates whether remote sensing evapotranspiration estimates can be integrated by means of data assimilation into a distributed hydrological model for improving the predictions of spatial water distribution over a large river basin with an area of 317,800 km2. A series of available MODIS satellite images over the Haihe River basin in China are used for the year 2005. Evapotranspiration is retrieved from these 1×1 km resolution images using the SEBS (Surface Energy Balance System) algorithm. The physically-based distributed model WEP-L (Water and Energy transfer Process in Large river basins) is used to compute the water balance of the Haihe River basin in the same year. Comparison between model-derived and remote sensing retrieval basin-averaged evapotranspiration estimates shows a good piecewise linear relationship, but their spatial distribution within the Haihe basin is different. The remote sensing derived evapotranspiration shows variability at finer scales. An extended Kalman filter (EKF) data assimilation algorithm, suitable for non-linear problems, is used. Assimilation results indicate that remote sensing observations have a potentially important role in providing spatial information to the assimilation system for the spatially optical hydrological parameterization of the model. This is especially important for large basins, such as the Haihe River basin in this study. Combining and integrating the capabilities of and information from model simulation and remote sensing techniques may provide the best spatial and temporal characteristics for hydrological states/fluxes, and would be both appealing and necessary for improving our knowledge of fundamental hydrological processes and for addressing important water resource management problems.

Integrating Remote Sensing Information Into A Distributed Hydrological Model for Improving Water Budget Predictions in Large-scale Basins through Data Assimilation

PubMed Central

Qin, Changbo; Jia, Yangwen; Su, Z.(Bob); Zhou, Zuhao; Qiu, Yaqin; Suhui, Shen

2008-01-01

This paper investigates whether remote sensing evapotranspiration estimates can be integrated by means of data assimilation into a distributed hydrological model for improving the predictions of spatial water distribution over a large river basin with an area of 317,800 km2. A series of available MODIS satellite images over the Haihe River basin in China are used for the year 2005. Evapotranspiration is retrieved from these 1×1 km resolution images using the SEBS (Surface Energy Balance System) algorithm. The physically-based distributed model WEP-L (Water and Energy transfer Process in Large river basins) is used to compute the water balance of the Haihe River basin in the same year. Comparison between model-derived and remote sensing retrieval basin-averaged evapotranspiration estimates shows a good piecewise linear relationship, but their spatial distribution within the Haihe basin is different. The remote sensing derived evapotranspiration shows variability at finer scales. An extended Kalman filter (EKF) data assimilation algorithm, suitable for non-linear problems, is used. Assimilation results indicate that remote sensing observations have a potentially important role in providing spatial information to the assimilation system for the spatially optical hydrological parameterization of the model. This is especially important for large basins, such as the Haihe River basin in this study. Combining and integrating the capabilities of and information from model simulation and remote sensing techniques may provide the best spatial and temporal characteristics for hydrological states/fluxes, and would be both appealing and necessary for improving our knowledge of fundamental hydrological processes and for addressing important water resource management problems. PMID:27879946

Model study of the impacts of future climate change on the hydrology of Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masood, M.; Yeh, P. J.-F.; Hanasaki, N.; Takeuchi, K.

2014-06-01

The intensity, duration, and geographic extent of floods in Bangladesh mostly depend on the combined influences of three river systems, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM). In addition, climate change is likely to have significant effects on the hydrology and water resources of the GBM basins and might ultimately lead to more serious floods in Bangladesh. However, the assessment of climate change impacts on basin-scale hydrology by using well-constrained hydrologic modelling has rarely been conducted for GBM basins due to the lack of data for model calibration and validation. In this study, a macro-scale hydrologic model H08 has been applied regionally over the basin at a relatively fine grid resolution (10 km) by integrating the fine-resolution (~0.5 km) DEM data for accurate river networks delineation. The model has been calibrated via analyzing model parameter sensitivity and validated based on a long-term observed daily streamflow data. The impact of climate change on not only the runoff, but also the basin-scale hydrology including evapotranspiration, soil moisture and net radiation have been assessed in this study through three time-slice experiments; present-day (1979-2003), near-future (2015-2039) and far-future (2075-2099) periods. Results shows that, by the end of 21st century (a) the entire GBM basin is projected to be warmed by ~3°C (b) the changes of mean precipitation are projected to be +14.0, +10.4, and +15.2%, and the changes of mean runoff to be +14, +15, and +18% in the Brahmaputra, Ganges and Meghna basin respectively (c) evapotranspiration is predicted to increase significantly for the entire GBM basins (Brahmaputra: +14.4%, Ganges: +9.4%, Meghna: +8.8%) due to increased net radiation (Brahmaputra: +6%, Ganges: +5.9%, Meghna: +3.3%) as well as warmer air temperature. Changes of hydrologic variables will be larger in dry season (November-April) than that in wet season (May-October). Amongst three basins, Meghna shows the largest hydrological response which indicates higher possibility of flood occurrence in this basin. The uncertainty due to the specification of key model parameters in predicting hydrologic quantities, has also been analysed explicitly in this study and found that the uncertainty in estimation of runoff, evapotranspiration and net radiation is relatively less. However, the uncertainty in estimation of soil moisture is quite large (coefficient of variation ranges from 11 to 33% for three basins). It is significant in land use management, agriculture in particular and highlights the necessity of physical observation of soil moisture.

Development of a biosphere hydrological model considering vegetation dynamics and its evaluation at basin scale under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qiaoling; Ishidaira, Hiroshi

2012-01-01

SummaryThe biosphere and hydrosphere are intrinsically coupled. The scientific question is if there is a substantial change in one component such as vegetation cover, how will the other components such as transpiration and runoff generation respond, especially under climate change conditions? Stand-alone hydrological models have a detailed description of hydrological processes but do not sufficiently parameterize vegetation as a dynamic component. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are able to simulate transient structural changes in major vegetation types but do not simulate runoff generation reliably. Therefore, both hydrological models and DGVMs have their limitations as well as advantages for addressing this question. In this study a biosphere hydrological model (LPJH) is developed by coupling a prominent DGVM (Lund-Postdam-Jena model referred to as LPJ) with a stand-alone hydrological model (HYMOD), with the objective of analyzing the role of vegetation in the hydrological processes at basin scale and evaluating the impact of vegetation change on the hydrological processes under climate change. The application and validation of the LPJH model to four basins representing a variety of climate and vegetation conditions shows that the performance of LPJH is much better than that of the original LPJ and is similar to that of stand-alone hydrological models for monthly and daily runoff simulation at the basin scale. It is argued that the LPJH model gives more reasonable hydrological simulation since it considers both the spatial variability of soil moisture and vegetation dynamics, which make the runoff generation mechanism more reliable. As an example, it is shown that changing atmospheric CO 2 content alone would result in runoff increases in humid basins and decreases in arid basins. Theses changes are mainly attributable to changes in transpiration driven by vegetation dynamics, which are not simulated in stand-alone hydrological models. Therefore LPJH potentially provides a powerful tool for simulating vegetation response to climate changes in the biosphere hydrological cycle.

Integrating understanding of biophysical processes governing larval fish dispersal with basin-scale management decisions: lessons from the Missouri River, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erwin, S. O.; Jacobson, R. B.; Fischenich, C. J.; Bulliner, E. A., IV; McDonald, R.; DeLonay, A. J.; Braaten, P.; Elliott, C. M.; Chojnacki, K.

2017-12-01

Management of the Missouri River—the longest river in the USA, with a drainage basin covering one sixth of the conterminous USA—is increasingly driven by the need to understand biophysical processes governing the dispersal of 8-mm long larval pallid sturgeon. In both the upper and lower basin, survival of larval sturgeon is thought to be a bottleneck limiting populations, but because of different physical processes at play, different modeling frameworks and resolutions are required to link management actions with population-level responses. In the upper basin, a series of impoundments reduce the length of river for the drifting larval sturgeon to complete their development. Downstream from the mainstem dams, recruitment is most likely diminished by channelization and reduced floodplain connectivity that limit the benthic habitat available for larval sturgeon to settle and initiate feeding. We present a synthesis of complementary field studies, laboratory observations, and numerical simulations that evaluate the physical processes related to larval dispersal of sturgeon in the Missouri River basin. In the upper basin, we use one-dimensional advection-dispersion models, calibrated with field experiments conducted in 2016-2017 using surrogate particles and tracers, to evaluate reservoir management alternatives. Results of field experimentation and numerical modeling show that proposed management alternatives in the upper basin may be limited by insufficient lengths of flowing river for drifting larvae to fully develop into their juvenile lifestage. In the intensively engineered lower basin, we employ higher resolution measurements and models to evaluate potential for channel reconfiguration and flow alteration to promote successful interception of drifting larvae into supportive benthic habitats for the initiation of feeding and transition to the juvenile life stage. We illustrate how refined understanding of small-scale biophysical process has been incorporated into the basin-scale management framework, thereby prompting a shift in restoration actions and design.

A refined regional modeling approach for the Corn Belt - Experiences and recommendations for large-scale integrated modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagopoulos, Yiannis; Gassman, Philip W.; Jha, Manoj K.; Kling, Catherine L.; Campbell, Todd; Srinivasan, Raghavan; White, Michael; Arnold, Jeffrey G.

2015-05-01

Nonpoint source pollution from agriculture is the main source of nitrogen and phosphorus in the stream systems of the Corn Belt region in the Midwestern US. This region is comprised of two large river basins, the intensely row-cropped Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) and Ohio-Tennessee River Basin (OTRB), which are considered the key contributing areas for the Northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone according to the US Environmental Protection Agency. Thus, in this area it is of utmost importance to ensure that intensive agriculture for food, feed and biofuel production can coexist with a healthy water environment. To address these objectives within a river basin management context, an integrated modeling system has been constructed with the hydrologic Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, capable of estimating river basin responses to alternative cropping and/or management strategies. To improve modeling performance compared to previous studies and provide a spatially detailed basis for scenario development, this SWAT Corn Belt application incorporates a greatly refined subwatershed structure based on 12-digit hydrologic units or 'subwatersheds' as defined by the US Geological Service. The model setup, calibration and validation are time-demanding and challenging tasks for these large systems, given the scale intensive data requirements, and the need to ensure the reliability of flow and pollutant load predictions at multiple locations. Thus, the objectives of this study are both to comprehensively describe this large-scale modeling approach, providing estimates of pollution and crop production in the region as well as to present strengths and weaknesses of integrated modeling at such a large scale along with how it can be improved on the basis of the current modeling structure and results. The predictions were based on a semi-automatic hydrologic calibration approach for large-scale and spatially detailed modeling studies, with the use of the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm (SUFI-2) and the SWAT-CUP interface, followed by a manual water quality calibration on a monthly basis. The refined modeling approach developed in this study led to successful predictions across most parts of the Corn Belt region and can be used for testing pollution mitigation measures and agricultural economic scenarios, providing useful information to policy makers and recommendations on similar efforts at the regional scale.

Western Lake Erie Basin: Soft-data-constrained, NHDPlus resolution watershed modeling and exploration of applicable conservation scenarios

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Complex watershed simulation models are powerful tools that can help scientists and policy-makers address challenging topics, such as land use management and water security. In the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB), complex hydrological models have been applied at various scales to help describe relat...

Avulsion Clusters in Alluvial Systems: An Example of Large-Scale Self-Organization in Ancient and Experimental Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajek, E.; Heller, P.; Huzurbazar, S.; Sheets, B.; Paola, C.

2006-12-01

The stratigraphic record of at least some alluvial basins exhibits a spatial structure that may reflect long time- scale (103-105 yr in natural basins) autogenic organization of river avulsions. Current models of avulsion-dominated alluvial sequences emphasize the spatial and temporal distribution of coarse-grained channel-belt deposits amid fine-grained floodplain materials. These models typically assume that individual avulsions move, either randomly or deterministically, to low spots distributed throughout the model space. However, our observations of ancient deposits and experimental stratigraphy indicate a previously unrecognized pattern of channel-belt organization, where clusters of closely-spaced channel-belt deposits are separated from each other by extensive intervals of overbank deposits. We explore potential causes of and controls on avulsion clustering with outcrop and subsurface data from Late Cretaceous/Early Paleogene fluvial deposits in the Rocky Mountains (including the Ferris, Lance, and Fort Union formations of Wyoming) and results of physical stratigraphy experiments from the St. Anthony Falls Lab, University of Minnesota. We use Ripley's K-function to determine the degree and scales of clustering in these basins with results that show moderate statistical clustering in experimental deposits and strong clustering in the Ferris Formation (Hanna Basin, Wyoming). External controls (base level, subsidence rate, and sediment/water supplies) were not varied during the experiment, and therefore not factors in cluster formation. Likewise, the stratigraphic context of the ancient system (including the absence of incised valleys and lack of faulting) suggests that obvious extrinsic controls, such as base level change and local tectonics, were not major influences on the development of clusters. We propose that avulsion clusters, as seen in this study, reflect a scale of self-organization in alluvial basins that is not usually recognized in stratigraphy. However cursory examination of other ancient systems suggests that such structure may be common in the rock record. Understanding mechanisms driving avulsion clustering will shed light on the dominant processes in alluvial basins over long time scales. Furthermore, characterizing autogenic avulsion clusters will be an important factor to consider when interpreting allogenic signals in ancient basin fills.

Modeling of facade leaching in urban catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coutu, S.; Del Giudice, D.; Rossi, L.; Barry, D. A.

2012-12-01

Building facades are protected from microbial attack by incorporation of biocides within them. Flow over facades leaches these biocides and transports them to the urban environment. A parsimonious water quantity/quality model applicable for engineered urban watersheds was developed to compute biocide release from facades and their transport at the urban basin scale. The model couples two lumped submodels applicable at the basin scale, and a local model of biocide leaching at the facade scale. For the facade leaching, an existing model applicable at the individual wall scale was utilized. The two lumped models describe urban hydrodynamics and leachate transport. The integrated model allows prediction of biocide concentrations in urban rivers. It was applied to a 15 km2urban hydrosystem in western Switzerland, the Vuachère river basin, to study three facade biocides (terbutryn, carbendazim, diuron). The water quality simulated by the model matched well most of the pollutographs at the outlet of the Vuachère watershed. The model was then used to estimate possible ecotoxicological impacts of facade leachates. To this end, exceedance probabilities and cumulative pollutant loads from the catchment were estimated. Results showed that the considered biocides rarely exceeded the relevant predicted no-effect concentrations for the riverine system. Despite the heterogeneities and complexity of (engineered) urban catchments, the model application demonstrated that a computationally "light" model can be employed to simulate the hydrograph and pollutograph response within them. It thus allows catchment-scale assessment of the potential ecotoxicological impact of biocides on receiving waters.

The Saale-Project -A multidisciplinary approach towards sustainable integrative catchment management -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bongartz, K.; Flügel, W. A.

2003-04-01

In the joint research project “Development of an integrated methodology for the sustainable management of river basins The Saale River Basin example”, coordinated by the Centre of Environmental Research (UFZ), concepts and tools for an integrated management of large river basins are developed and applied for the Saale river basin. The ultimate objective of the project is to contribute to the holistic assessment and benchmarking approaches in water resource planning, as required by the European Water Framework Directive. The study presented here deals (1) with the development of a river basin information and modelling system, (2) with the refinement of a regionalisation approach adapted for integrated basin modelling. The approach combines a user friendly basin disaggregation method preserving the catchment’s physiographic heterogeneity with a process oriented hydrological basin assessment for scale bridging integrated modelling. The well tested regional distribution concept of Response Units (RUs) will be enhanced by landscape metrics and decision support tools for objective, scale independent and problem oriented RU delineation to provide the spatial modelling entities for process oriented and distributed simulation of vertical and lateral hydrological transport processes. On basis of this RUs suitable hydrological modelling approaches will be further developed with strong respect to a more detailed simulation of the lateral surface and subsurface flows as well as the channel flow. This methodical enhancement of the well recognised RU-concept will be applied to the river basin of the Saale (Ac: 23 179 km2) and validated by a nested catchment approach, which allows multi-response-validation and estimation of uncertainties of the modelling results. Integrated modelling of such a complex basin strongly influenced by manifold human activities (reservoirs, agriculture, urban areas and industry) can only be achieved by coupling the various modelling approaches within a well defined model framework system. The latter is interactively linked with a sophisticated geo-relational database (DB) serving all research teams involved in the project. This interactive linkage is a core element comprising an object-oriented, internet-based modelling framework system (MFS) for building interdisciplinary modelling applications and offering different analysis and visualisation tools.

Velocity Model Analysis Based on Integrated Well and Seismic Data of East Java Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mubin, Fathul; Widya, Aviandy; Eka Nurcahya, Budi; Nurul Mahmudah, Erma; Purwaman, Indro; Radityo, Aryo; Shirly, Agung; Nurwani, Citra

2018-03-01

Time to depth conversion is an important processof seismic interpretationtoidentify hydrocarbonprospectivity. Main objectives of this research are to minimize the risk of error in geometry and time to depth conversion. Since it’s using a large amount of data and had been doing in the large scale of research areas, this research can be classified as a regional scale research. The research was focused on three horizons time interpretation: Top Kujung I, Top Ngimbang and Basement which located in the offshore and onshore areas of east Java basin. These three horizons was selected because they were assumed to be equivalent to the rock formation, which is it has always been the main objective of oil and gas exploration in the East Java Basin. As additional value, there was no previous works on velocity modeling for regional scale using geological parameters in East Java basin. Lithology and interval thickness were identified as geological factors that effected the velocity distribution in East Java Basin. Therefore, a three layer geological model was generated, which was defined by the type of lithology; carbonate (layer 1: Top Kujung I), shale (layer 2: Top Ngimbang) and Basement. A statistical method using three horizons is able to predict the velocity distribution on sparse well data in a regional scale. The average velocity range for Top Kujung I is 400 m/s - 6000 m/s, Top Ngimbang is 500 m/s - 8200 m/s and Basement is 600 m/s - 8000 m/s. Some velocity anomalies found in Madura sub-basin area, caused by geological factor which identified as thick shale deposit and high density values on shale. Result of velocity and depth modeling analysis can be used to define the volume range deterministically and to make geological models to prospect generation in details by geological concept.

Scale-dependent genetic structure of the Idaho giant salamander (Dicamptodon aterrimus) in stream networks.

PubMed

Mullen, Lindy B; Arthur Woods, H; Schwartz, Michael K; Sepulveda, Adam J; Lowe, Winsor H

2010-03-01

The network architecture of streams and rivers constrains evolutionary, demographic and ecological processes of freshwater organisms. This consistent architecture also makes stream networks useful for testing general models of population genetic structure and the scaling of gene flow. We examined genetic structure and gene flow in the facultatively paedomorphic Idaho giant salamander, Dicamptodon aterrimus, in stream networks of Idaho and Montana, USA. We used microsatellite data to test population structure models by (i) examining hierarchical partitioning of genetic variation in stream networks; and (ii) testing for genetic isolation by distance along stream corridors vs. overland pathways. Replicated sampling of streams within catchments within three river basins revealed that hierarchical scale had strong effects on genetic structure and gene flow. amova identified significant structure at all hierarchical scales (among streams, among catchments, among basins), but divergence among catchments had the greatest structural influence. Isolation by distance was detected within catchments, and in-stream distance was a strong predictor of genetic divergence. Patterns of genetic divergence suggest that differentiation among streams within catchments was driven by limited migration, consistent with a stream hierarchy model of population structure. However, there was no evidence of migration among catchments within basins, or among basins, indicating that gene flow only counters the effects of genetic drift at smaller scales (within rather than among catchments). These results show the strong influence of stream networks on population structure and genetic divergence of a salamander, with contrasting effects at different hierarchical scales.

An explicit GIS-based river basin framework for aquatic ecosystem conservation in the Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venticinque, Eduardo; Forsberg, Bruce; Barthem, Ronaldo; Petry, Paulo; Hess, Laura; Mercado, Armando; Cañas, Carlos; Montoya, Mariana; Durigan, Carlos; Goulding, Michael

2016-11-01

Despite large-scale infrastructure development, deforestation, mining and petroleum exploration in the Amazon Basin, relatively little attention has been paid to the management scale required for the protection of wetlands, fisheries and other aspects of aquatic ecosystems. This is due, in part, to the enormous size, multinational composition and interconnected nature of the Amazon River system, as well as to the absence of an adequate spatial model for integrating data across the entire Amazon Basin. In this data article we present a spatially uniform multi-scale GIS framework that was developed especially for the analysis, management and monitoring of various aspects of aquatic systems in the Amazon Basin. The Amazon GIS-Based River Basin Framework is accessible as an ESRI geodatabase at doi:10.5063/F1BG2KX8.

Combining point and distributed snowpack data with landscape-based discretization for hydrologic modeling of the snow-dominated Maipo River basin, in the semi-arid Andes of Central Chile.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McPhee, James; Videla, Yohann

2014-05-01

The 5000-km2 upper Maipo River Basin, in central Chile's Andes, has an adequate streamgage network but almost no meteorological or snow accumulation data. Therefore, hydrologic model parameterization is strongly subject to model errors stemming from input and model-state uncertainty. In this research, we apply the Cold Regions Hydrologic Model (CRHM) to the basin, force it with reanalysis data downscaled to an appropriate resolution, and inform a parsimonious basin discretization, based on the hydrologic response unit concept, with distributed data on snowpack properties obtained through snow surveys for two seasons. With minimal calibration the model is able to reproduce the seasonal accumulation and melt cycle as recorded in the one snow pillow available for the basin, and although a bias in maximum accumulation persists, snowpack persistence in time is appropriately simulated based on snow water equivalent and snow covered area observations. Blowing snow events were simulated by the model whenever daily wind speed surpassed 8 m/s, although the use of daily instead of hourly data to force the model suggests that this phenomenon could be underestimated. We investigate the representation of snow redistribution by the model, and compare it with small-scale observations of wintertime snow accumulation on glaciers, in a first step towards characterizing ice distribution within a HRU spatial discretization. Although built at a different spatial scale, we present a comparison of simulated results with distributed snow depth data obtained within a 40 km2 sub-basin of the main Maipo watershed in two snow surveys carried out at the end of winter seasons 2011 and 2012, and compare basin-wide SWE estimates with a regression tree extrapolation of the observed data.

A comprehensive surface-groundwater flow model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, Jeffrey G.; Allen, Peter M.; Bernhardt, Gilbert

1993-02-01

In this study, a simple groundwater flow and height model was added to an existing basin-scale surface water model. The linked model is: (1) watershed scale, allowing the basin to be subdivided; (2) designed to accept readily available inputs to allow general use over large regions; (3) continuous in time to allow simulation of land management, including such factors as climate and vegetation changes, pond and reservoir management, groundwater withdrawals, and stream and reservoir withdrawals. The model is described, and is validated on a 471 km 2 watershed near Waco, Texas. This linked model should provide a comprehensive tool for water resource managers in development and planning.

Impacts of Changing Climatic Drivers and Land use features on Future Stormwater Runoff in the Northwest Florida Basin: A Large-Scale Hydrologic Modeling Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2017-12-01

Potential changes in climatic drivers and land cover features can significantly influence the stormwater budget in the Northwest Florida Basin. We investigated the hydro-climatic and land use sensitivities of stormwater runoff by developing a large-scale process-based rainfall-runoff model for the large basin by using the EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Climatic and hydrologic variables, as well as land use/cover features were incorporated into the model to account for the key processes of coastal hydrology and its dynamic interactions with groundwater and sea levels. We calibrated and validated the model by historical daily streamflow observations during 2009-2012 at four major rivers in the basin. Downscaled climatic drivers (precipitation, temperature, solar radiation) projected by twenty GCMs-RCMs under CMIP5, along with the projected future land use/cover features were also incorporated into the model. The basin storm runoff was then simulated for the historical (2000s = 1976-2005) and two future periods (2050s = 2030-2059, and 2080s = 2070-2099). Comparative evaluation of the historical and future scenarios leads to important guidelines for stormwater management in Northwest Florida and similar regions under a changing climate and environment.

An Analytical Model for Basin-scale Glacier Erosion as a Function of Climate and Topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaffrey, M.; Hallet, B.

2017-12-01

Knowledge about glacier erosion has advanced considerably over the last few decades with the emergence of a firm mechanistic understanding of abrasion and quarrying, the growing sophistication of complex numerical models of glacial erosion and the evolution of glacial landforms, and the increase in data from field studies of erosion rates. Interest in glacial erosion has also intensified and diversified substantially as it is increasingly recognized as a key process affecting the heights of mountains, the overall evolution of mountain belts, and the coupling of climate, erosion, and tectonics. Yet, the general controls of glacier erosion rates have not been addressed theoretically, and the large range of published basin-scale erosion rates, covering more than 3 orders of magnitude, remains poorly understood. To help gain insight into glacier erosion rates at the scale of glacier basins, the only scale for which extensive data exist, we develop analytically a simple budget of the total mechanical energy per unit time, the power, dissipated by a steady state glacier in sliding, S, and viscous deformation, V. We hypothesize that the power for the work of erosion derives solely from S and that the basin wide erosion rate scales with S averaged over the basin. We solve the power budget directly in terms of climatic and topographic parameters, showing explicitly that the source of power to drive both S and V is the gravitational power supplied by the net snow accumulation (mass balance). The budget leads to the simple metric φ=mbΔz2 for the basin average of S with Δz being the glacier basin relief and mb the gradient of the mass balance with elevation. The dependence of φ on the square of the relief arises from both the mass balance's and potential energy's linear increases with elevation. We validate φ using results from a comprehensive field study of erosion rates paired with glaciological data along a transect extending from Southern Patagonia to the Antarctic Peninsula (Koppes et al. 2015. Nature, 526(7571), 100). Along this transect, φ accounts for 75% ± 12% of the variation in reported erosion rates. The power budget model illuminates the role of climate and topography in basin scale erosion rates with direct implications for the broad community interested in ice masses and their interconnections with climate and topography.

A high-resolution global-scale groundwater model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Graaf, I. E. M.; Sutanudjaja, E. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2015-02-01

Groundwater is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water. It plays a vital role in satisfying basic needs for drinking water, agriculture and industrial activities. During times of drought groundwater sustains baseflow to rivers and wetlands, thereby supporting ecosystems. Most global-scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, mainly due to lack of geohydrological data at the global scale. For the simulation of lateral flow and groundwater head dynamics, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system is needed, especially for GHMs that run at finer resolutions. In this study we present a global-scale groundwater model (run at 6' resolution) using MODFLOW to construct an equilibrium water table at its natural state as the result of long-term climatic forcing. The used aquifer schematization and properties are based on available global data sets of lithology and transmissivities combined with the estimated thickness of an upper, unconfined aquifer. This model is forced with outputs from the land-surface PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) model, specifically net recharge and surface water levels. A sensitivity analysis, in which the model was run with various parameter settings, showed that variation in saturated conductivity has the largest impact on the groundwater levels simulated. Validation with observed groundwater heads showed that groundwater heads are reasonably well simulated for many regions of the world, especially for sediment basins (R2 = 0.95). The simulated regional-scale groundwater patterns and flow paths demonstrate the relevance of lateral groundwater flow in GHMs. Inter-basin groundwater flows can be a significant part of a basin's water budget and help to sustain river baseflows, especially during droughts. Also, water availability of larger aquifer systems can be positively affected by additional recharge from inter-basin groundwater flows.

Fat fractal scaling of drainage networks from a random spatial network model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karlinger, Michael R.; Troutman, Brent M.

1992-01-01

An alternative quantification of the scaling properties of river channel networks is explored using a spatial network model. Whereas scaling descriptions of drainage networks previously have been presented using a fractal analysis primarily of the channel lengths, we illustrate the scaling of the surface area of the channels defining the network pattern with an exponent which is independent of the fractal dimension but not of the fractal nature of the network. The methodology presented is a fat fractal analysis in which the drainage basin minus the channel area is considered the fat fractal. Random channel networks within a fixed basin area are generated on grids of different scales. The sample channel networks generated by the model have a common outlet of fixed width and a rule of upstream channel narrowing specified by a diameter branching exponent using hydraulic and geomorphologic principles. Scaling exponents are computed for each sample network on a given grid size and are regressed against network magnitude. Results indicate that the size of the exponents are related to magnitude of the networks and generally decrease as network magnitude increases. Cases showing differences in scaling exponents with like magnitudes suggest a direction of future work regarding other topologic basin characteristics as potential explanatory variables.

Digital spatial data for observed, predicted, and misclassification errors for observations in the training dataset for nitrate and arsenic concentrations in basin-fill aquifers in the Southwest Principal Aquifers study area

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKinney, Tim S.; Anning, David W.

2012-01-01

This product "Digital spatial data for observed, predicted, and misclassification errors for observations in the training dataset for nitrate and arsenic concentrations in basin-fill aquifers in the Southwest Principal Aquifers study area" is a 1:250,000-scale point spatial dataset developed as part of a regional Southwest Principal Aquifers (SWPA) study (Anning and others, 2012). The study examined the vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers in the southwestern United States to nitrate contamination and arsenic enrichment. Statistical models were developed by using the random forest classifier algorithm to predict concentrations of nitrate and arsenic across a model grid that represents local- and basin-scale measures of source, aquifer susceptibility, and geochemical conditions.

A spatially explicit suspended-sediment load model for western Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wise, Daniel R.; O'Connor, Jim

2016-06-27

Knowledge of the regionally important patterns and factors in suspended-sediment sources and transport could support broad-scale, water-quality management objectives and priorities. Because of biases and limitations of this model, however, these results are most applicable for general comparisons and for broad areas such as large watersheds. For example, despite having similar area, precipitation, and land-use, the Umpqua River Basin generates 68 percent more suspended sediment than the Rogue River Basin, chiefly because of the large area of Coast Range sedimentary province in the Umpqua River Basin. By contrast, the Rogue River Basin contains a much larger area of Klamath terrane rocks, which produce significantly less suspended load, although recent fire disturbance (in 2002) has apparently elevated suspended sediment yields in the tributary Illinois River watershed. Fine-scaled analysis, however, will require more intensive, locally focused measurements.

The role of Natural Flood Management in managing floods in large scale basins during extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, Paul; Owen, Gareth; ODonnell, Greg; Nicholson, Alex; Hetherington, David

2016-04-01

There is a strong evidence database showing the negative impacts of land use intensification and soil degradation in NW European river basins on hydrological response and to flood impact downstream. However, the ability to target zones of high runoff production and the extent to which we can manage flood risk using nature-based flood management solution are less known. A move to planting more trees and having less intense farmed landscapes is part of natural flood management (NFM) solutions and these methods suggest that flood risk can be managed in alternative and more holistic ways. So what local NFM management methods should be used, where in large scale basin should they be deployed and how does flow is propagate to any point downstream? Generally, how much intervention is needed and will it compromise food production systems? If we are observing record levels of rainfall and flow, for example during Storm Desmond in Dec 2015 in the North West of England, what other flood management options are really needed to complement our traditional defences in large basins for the future? In this paper we will show examples of NFM interventions in the UK that have impacted at local scale sites. We will demonstrate the impact of interventions at local, sub-catchment (meso-scale) and finally at the large scale. These tools include observations, process based models and more generalised Flood Impact Models. Issues of synchronisation and the design level of protection will be debated. By reworking observed rainfall and discharge (runoff) for observed extreme events in the River Eden and River Tyne, during Storm Desmond, we will show how much flood protection is needed in large scale basins. The research will thus pose a number of key questions as to how floods may have to be managed in large scale basins in the future. We will seek to support a method of catchment systems engineering that holds water back across the whole landscape as a major opportunity to management water in large scale basins in the future. The broader benefits of engineering landscapes to hold water for pollution control, sediment loss and drought minimisation will also be shown.

Water Balance in the Amazon Basin from a Land Surface Model Ensemble

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Getirana, Augusto C. V.; Dutra, Emanuel; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Kam, Jonghun; Li, Hong-Yi; Decharme, Bertrand; Zhang, Zhengqiu; Ducharne, Agnes; Boone, Aaron; Balsamo, Gianpaolo;

An integrated modeling approach for estimating the water quality benefits of conservation practices at the river basin scale.

PubMed

Santhi, C; Kannan, N; White, M; Di Luzio, M; Arnold, J G; Wang, X; Williams, J R

2014-01-01

The USDA initiated the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) to quantify the environmental benefits of conservation practices at regional and national scales. For this assessment, a sampling and modeling approach is used. This paper provides a technical overview of the modeling approach used in CEAP cropland assessment to estimate the off-site water quality benefits of conservation practices using the Ohio River Basin (ORB) as an example. The modeling approach uses a farm-scale model, Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender (APEX), and a watershed scale model (the Soil and Water Assessment Tool [SWAT]) and databases in the Hydrologic Unit Modeling for the United States system. Databases of land use, soils, land use management, topography, weather, point sources, and atmospheric depositions were developed to derive model inputs. APEX simulates the cultivated cropland, Conserve Reserve Program land, and the practices implemented on them, whereas SWAT simulates the noncultivated land (e.g., pasture, range, urban, and forest) and point sources. Simulation results from APEX are input into SWAT. SWAT routes all sources, including APEX's, to the basin outlet through each eight-digit watershed. Each basin is calibrated for stream flow, sediment, and nutrient loads at multiple gaging sites and turned in for simulating the effects of conservation practice scenarios on water quality. Results indicate that sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads delivered to the Mississippi River from ORB could be reduced by 16, 15, and 23%, respectively, due to current conservation practices. Modeling tools are useful to provide science-based information for assessing existing conservation programs, developing future programs, and developing insights on load reductions necessary for hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Bias-correction and Spatial Disaggregation for Climate Change Impact Assessments at a basin scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyunt, Cho; Koike, Toshio; Yamamoto, Akio; Nemoto, Toshihoro; Kitsuregawa, Masaru

2013-04-01

Basin-scale climate change impact studies mainly rely on general circulation models (GCMs) comprising the related emission scenarios. Realistic and reliable data from GCM is crucial for national scale or basin scale impact and vulnerability assessments to build safety society under climate change. However, GCM fail to simulate regional climate features due to the imprecise parameterization schemes in atmospheric physics and coarse resolution scale. This study describes how to exclude some unsatisfactory GCMs with respect to focused basin, how to minimize the biases of GCM precipitation through statistical bias correction and how to cover spatial disaggregation scheme, a kind of downscaling, within in a basin. GCMs rejection is based on the regional climate features of seasonal evolution as a bench mark and mainly depends on spatial correlation and root mean square error of precipitation and atmospheric variables over the target region. Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Japanese 25-uear Reanalysis Project (JRA-25) are specified as references in figuring spatial pattern and error of GCM. Statistical bias-correction scheme comprises improvements of three main flaws of GCM precipitation such as low intensity drizzled rain days with no dry day, underestimation of heavy rainfall and inter-annual variability of local climate. Biases of heavy rainfall are conducted by generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitting over a peak over threshold series. Frequency of rain day error is fixed by rank order statistics and seasonal variation problem is solved by using a gamma distribution fitting in each month against insi-tu stations vs. corresponding GCM grids. By implementing the proposed bias-correction technique to all insi-tu stations and their respective GCM grid, an easy and effective downscaling process for impact studies at the basin scale is accomplished. The proposed method have been examined its applicability to some of the basins in various climate regions all over the world. The biases are controlled very well by using this scheme in all applied basins. After that, bias-corrected and downscaled GCM precipitation are ready to use for simulating the Water and Energy Budget based Distributed Hydrological Model (WEB-DHM) to analyse the stream flow change or water availability of a target basin under the climate change in near future. Furthermore, it can be investigated any inter-disciplinary studies such as drought, flood, food, health and so on.In summary, an effective and comprehensive statistical bias-correction method was established to fulfil the generative applicability of GCM scale to basin scale without difficulty. This gap filling also promotes the sound decision of river management in the basin with more reliable information to build the resilience society.

Spatial, temporal and frequency based climate change assessment in Columbia River Basin using multi downscaled-scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid

2016-07-01

Uncertainties in climate modelling are well documented in literature. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to downscale the climatic parameters on a regional scale. In the present work, we have analyzed the changes in precipitation and temperature for future scenario period of 2070-2099 with respect to historical period of 1970-2000 from statistically downscaled GCM projections in Columbia River Basin (CRB). Analysis is performed using two different statistically downscaled climate projections (with ten GCMs downscaled products each, for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, from CMIP5 dataset) namely, those from the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique generated at Portland State University and from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) technique, generated at University of Idaho, totaling to 40 different scenarios. The two datasets for BCSD and MACA are downscaled from observed data for both scenarios projections i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Analysis is performed using spatial change (yearly scale), temporal change (monthly scale), percentile change (seasonal scale), quantile change (yearly scale), and wavelet analysis (yearly scale) in the future period from the historical period, respectively, at a scale of 1/16th of degree for entire CRB region. Results have indicated in varied degree of spatial change pattern for the entire Columbia River Basin, especially western part of the basin. At temporal scales, winter precipitation has higher variability than summer and vice versa for temperature. Most of the models have indicated considerate positive change in quantiles and percentiles for both precipitation and temperature. Wavelet analysis provided insights into possible explanation to changes in precipitation.

Regional scale flood modeling using NEXRAD rainfall, GIS, and HEC-HMS/RAS: a case study for the San Antonio River Basin Summer 2002 storm event.

PubMed

Knebl, M R; Yang, Z-L; Hutchison, K; Maidment, D R

2005-06-01

This paper develops a framework for regional scale flood modeling that integrates NEXRAD Level III rainfall, GIS, and a hydrological model (HEC-HMS/RAS). The San Antonio River Basin (about 4000 square miles, 10,000 km2) in Central Texas, USA, is the domain of the study because it is a region subject to frequent occurrences of severe flash flooding. A major flood in the summer of 2002 is chosen as a case to examine the modeling framework. The model consists of a rainfall-runoff model (HEC-HMS) that converts precipitation excess to overland flow and channel runoff, as well as a hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) that models unsteady state flow through the river channel network based on the HEC-HMS-derived hydrographs. HEC-HMS is run on a 4 x 4 km grid in the domain, a resolution consistent with the resolution of NEXRAD rainfall taken from the local river authority. Watershed parameters are calibrated manually to produce a good simulation of discharge at 12 subbasins. With the calibrated discharge, HEC-RAS is capable of producing floodplain polygons that are comparable to the satellite imagery. The modeling framework presented in this study incorporates a portion of the recently developed GIS tool named Map to Map that has been created on a local scale and extends it to a regional scale. The results of this research will benefit future modeling efforts by providing a tool for hydrological forecasts of flooding on a regional scale. While designed for the San Antonio River Basin, this regional scale model may be used as a prototype for model applications in other areas of the country.

Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huss, Matthias; Hock, Regine

2018-01-01

Worldwide glacier retreat and associated future runoff changes raise major concerns over the sustainability of global water resources1-4, but global-scale assessments of glacier decline and the resulting hydrological consequences are scarce5,6. Here we compute global glacier runoff changes for 56 large-scale glacierized drainage basins to 2100 and analyse the glacial impact on streamflow. In roughly half of the investigated basins, the modelled annual glacier runoff continues to rise until a maximum (`peak water') is reached, beyond which runoff steadily declines. In the remaining basins, this tipping point has already been passed. Peak water occurs later in basins with larger glaciers and higher ice-cover fractions. Typically, future glacier runoff increases in early summer but decreases in late summer. Although most of the 56 basins have less than 2% ice coverage, by 2100 one-third of them might experience runoff decreases greater than 10% due to glacier mass loss in at least one month of the melt season, with the largest reductions in central Asia and the Andes. We conclude that, even in large-scale basins with minimal ice-cover fraction, the downstream hydrological effects of continued glacier wastage can be substantial, but the magnitudes vary greatly among basins and throughout the melt season.

Spatial scale effect on sediment dynamics in basin-wide floods within a typical agro-watershed: A case study in the hilly loess region of the Chinese Loess Plateau.

PubMed

Zhang, Le-Tao; Li, Zhan-Bin; Wang, Shan-Shan

2016-12-01

Scale issues, which have been extensively studied in the domain of soil erosion, are considerably significant in geomorphologic processes and hydrologic modelling. However, relatively scarce efforts have been made to quantify the spatial scale effect on event-based sediment dynamics in basin-wide floods. To address this issue, sediment-runoff yield data of 44 basin-wide flood events were collected from gauging stations at the Chabagou river basin, a typical agro-basin (unmanaged) in the hilly loess region of the Chinese Loess Plateau. Thus, the spatial scale effect on event-based sediment dynamics was investigated in the basin system across three different spatial scales from sublateral to basin outlet. Results showed that the event-based suspended sediment concentration, as well as the intra- and inter-scale flow-sediment relationships remained spatially constant. Hence, almost all the sediment-laden flows can reach at the detachment-limited maximum concentration across scales, specifically for hyperconcentrated flows. Consequently, limited influence was exerted by upstream sediment-laden flow on downstream sediment output, particularly for major sediment-producing events. However, flood peak discharge instead of total flood runoff amount can better interpret the dynamics of sediment yield across scales. As a composite parameter, the proposed stream energy factor combines flood runoff depth and flood peak discharge, thereby showing more advantages to describe the event-based inter-scale flow-sediment relationship than other flow-related variables. Overall, this study demonstrates the process-specific characteristics of soil erosion by water flows in the basin system. Therefore, event-based sediment control should be oriented by the process to cut off the connectivity of hyperconcentrated flows and redistribute the erosive energy of flowing water in terms of temporality and spatiality. Furthermore, evaluation of soil conservation benefits should be based on the process of runoff regulation to comprehensively assess the efficiency of anti-erosion strategies in sediment control at the basin scale. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Generating High Resolution Climate Scenarios Through Regional Climate Modelling Over Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndhlovu, G. Z.; Woyessa, Y. E.; Vijayaraghavan, S.

2017-12-01

limate change has impacted the global environment and the Continent of Africa, especially Southern Africa, regarded as one of the most vulnerable regions in Africa, has not been spared from these impacts. Global Climate Models (GCMs) with coarse horizontal resolutions of 150-300 km do not provide sufficient details at the local basin scale due to mismatch between the size of river basins and the grid cell of the GCM. This makes it difficult to apply the outputs of GCMs directly to impact studies such as hydrological modelling. This necessitates the use of regional climate modelling at high resolutions that provide detailed information at regional and local scales to study both climate change and its impacts. To this end, an experiment was set up and conducted with PRECIS, a regional climate model, to generate climate scenarios at a high resolution of 25km for the local region in Zambezi River basin of Southern Africa. The major input data used included lateral and surface boundary conditions based on the GCMs. The data is processed, analysed and compared with CORDEX climate change project data generated for Africa. This paper, highlights the major differences of the climate scenarios generated by PRECIS Model and CORDEX Project for Africa and further gives recommendations for further research on generation of climate scenarios. The climatic variables such as precipitation and temperatures have been analysed for flood and droughts in the region. The paper also describes the setting up and running of an experiment using a high-resolution PRECIS model. In addition, a description has been made in running the model and generating the output variables on a sub basin scale. Regional climate modelling which provides information on climate change impact may lead to enhanced understanding of adaptive water resources management. Understanding the regional climate modelling results on sub basin scale is the first step in analysing complex hydrological processes and a basis for designing of adaptation and mitigation strategies in the region. Key words: Climate change, regional climate modelling, hydrological processes, extremes, scenarios [1] Corresponding author: Email:gndhlovu@cut.ac.za Tel:+27 (0) 51 507 3072

Regional groundwater flow modeling of the Geba basin, northern Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebreyohannes, Tesfamichael; De Smedt, Florimond; Walraevens, Kristine; Gebresilassie, Solomon; Hussien, Abdelwassie; Hagos, Miruts; Amare, Kassa; Deckers, Jozef; Gebrehiwot, Kindeya

2017-05-01

The Geba basin is one of the most food-insecure areas of the Tigray regional state in northern Ethiopia due to recurrent drought resulting from erratic distribution of rainfall. Since the beginning of the 1990s, rain-fed agriculture has been supported through small-scale irrigation schemes mainly by surface-water harvesting, but success has been limited. Hence, use of groundwater for irrigation purposes has gained considerable attention. The main purpose of this study is to assess groundwater resources in the Geba basin by means of a MODFLOW modeling approach. The model is calibrated using observed groundwater levels, yielding a clear insight into the groundwater flow systems and reserves. Results show that none of the hydrogeological formations can be considered as aquifers that can be exploited for large-scale groundwater exploitation. However, aquitards can be identified that can support small-scale groundwater abstraction for irrigation needs in regions that are either designated as groundwater discharge areas or where groundwater levels are shallow and can be tapped by hand-dug wells or shallow boreholes.

Effect of enhanced manganese oxidation in the hyporheic zone on basin-scale geochemical mass balance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harvey, Judson W.; Fuller, Christopher C.

1998-01-01

We determined the role of the hyporheic zone (the subsurface zone where stream water and shallow groundwater mix) in enhancing microbially mediated oxidation of dissolved manganese (to form manganese precipitates) in a drainage basin contaminated by copper mining. The fate of manganese is of overall importance to water quality in Pinal Creek Basin, Arizona, because manganese reactions affect the transport of trace metals. The basin-scale role of the hyporheic zone is difficult to quantify because stream-tracer studies do not always reliably characterize the cumulative effects of the hyporheic zone. This study determined cumulative effects of hyporheic reactions in Pinal Creek basin by characterizing manganese uptake at several spatial scales (stream-reach scale, hyporheic-flow-path scale, and sediment-grain scale). At the stream-reach scale a one-dimensional stream-transport model (including storage zones to represent hyporheic flow paths) was used to determine a reach-averaged time constant for manganese uptake in hyporheic zones, 1/λs, of 1.3 hours, which was somewhat faster but still similar to manganese uptake time constants that were measured directly in centimeter-scale hyporheic flow paths (1/λh= 2.6 hours), and in laboratory batch experiments using streambed sediment (1/λ = 2.7 hours). The modeled depths of subsurface storage zones (ds = 4–17 cm) and modeled residence times of water in storage zones (ts = 3–12 min) were both consistent with direct measurements in hyporheic flow paths (dh = 0–15 cm, th = 1–25 min). There was also good agreement between reach-scale modeling and direct measurements of the percentage removal of dissolved manganese in hyporheic flow paths (fs = 8.9%, andfh = 9.3%rpar;. Manganese uptake experiments in the laboratory using sediment from Pinal Creek demonstrated (through comparison of poisoned and unpoisoned treatments) that the manganese removal process was enhanced by microbially mediated oxidation. The cumulative effect of hyporheic exchange in Pinal Creek basin was to remove approximately 20% of the dissolved manganese flowing out of the drainage basin. Our results illustrate that the cumulative significance of reactive uptake in the hyporheic zone depends on the balance between chemical reaction rates, hyporheic porewater residence time, and turnover of streamflow through hyporheic flow paths. The similarity between the hyporheic reaction timescale (1/λs ≈ 1.3 hours), and the hyporheic porewater residence timescale (ts ≈ 8 min) ensured that there was adequate time for the reaction to progress. Furthermore, it was the similarity between the turnover length for stream water flow through hyporheic flow paths (Ls = stream velocity/storage-zone exchange coefficient ≈ 1.3 km) and the length of Pinal Creek (L ≈ 7 km), which ensured that all stream water passed through hyporheic flow paths several times. As a means to generalize our findings to other sites where similar types of hydrologic and chemical information are available, we suggest a cumulative significance index for hyporheic reactions, Rs = λstsL/Ls (dimensionless); higher values indicate a greater potential for hyporheic reactions to influence geochemical mass balance. Our experience in Pinal Creek basin suggests that values of Rs > 0.2 characterize systems where hyporheic reactions are likely to influence geochemical mass balance at the drainage-basin scale.

Mechanical Stability of Fractured Rift Basin Mudstones: from lab to basin scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakharova, N. V.; Goldberg, D.; Collins, D.; Swager, L.; Payne, W. G.

2016-12-01

Understanding petrophysical and mechanical properties of caprock mudstones is essential for ensuring good containment and mechanical formation stability at potential CO2 storage sites. Natural heterogeneity and presence of fractures, however, create challenges for accurate prediction of mudstone behavior under injection conditions and at reservoir scale. In this study, we present a multi-scale geomechanical analysis for Mesozoic mudstones from the Newark Rift basin, integrating petropyshical core and borehole data, in situ stress measurements, and caprock stability modeling. The project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) focuses on the Newark basin as a representative locality for a series of the Mesozoic rift basins in eastern North America considered as potential CO2 storage sites. An extensive core characterization program, which included laboratory CT scans, XRD, SEM, MICP, porosity, permeability, acoustic velocity measurements, and geomechanical testing under a range of confining pressures, revealed large variability and heterogeneity in both petrophysical and mechanical properties. Estimates of unconfined compressive strength for these predominantly lacustrine mudstones range from 5,000 to 50,000 psi, with only a weak correlation to clay content. Thinly bedded intervals exhibit up to 30% strength anisotropy. Mineralized fractures, abundant in most formations, are characterized by compressive strength as low as 10% of matrix strength. Upscaling these observations from core to reservoir scale is challenging. No simple one-to-one correlation between mechanical and petrophyscial properties exists, and therefore, we develop multivariate empirical relationships among these properties. A large suite of geophysical logs, including new measurements of the in situ stress field, is used to extrapolate these relationships to a basin-scale geomechanical model and predict mudstone behavior under injection conditions.

Improving snow water equivalent simulations in an alpine basin using blended gage precipitation and snow pillow measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sohrabi, M.; Safeeq, M.; Conklin, M. H.

2017-12-01

Snowpack is a critical freshwater reservoir that sustains ecosystem, natural habitat, hydropower, agriculture, and urban water supply in many areas around the world. Accurate estimation of basin scale snow water equivalent (SWE), through both measurement and modeling, has been significantly recognized to improve regional water resource management. Recent advances in remote data acquisition techniques have improved snow measurements but our ability to model snowpack evolution is largely hampered by poor knowledge of inherently variable high-elevation precipitation patterns. For a variety of reasons, majority of the precipitation gages are located in low and mid-elevation range and function as drivers for basin scale hydrologic modeling. Here, we blend observed gage precipitation from low and mid-elevation with point observations of SWE from high-elevation snow pillow into a physically based snow evolution model (SnowModel) to better represent the basin-scale precipitation field and improve snow simulations. To do this, we constructed two scenarios that differed in only precipitation. In WTH scenario, we forced the SnowModel using spatially distributed gage precipitation data. In WTH+SP scenario, the model was forced with spatially distributed precipitation data derived from gage precipitation along with observed precipitation from snow pillows. Since snow pillows do not directly measure precipitation, we uses positive change in SWE as a proxy for precipitation. The SnowModel was implemented at daily time step and 100 m resolution for the Kings River Basin, USA over 2000-2014. Our results show an improvement in snow simulation under WTH+SP as compared to WTH scenario, which can be attributed to better representation in high-elevation precipitation patterns under WTH+SP. The average Nash Sutcliffe efficiency over all snow pillow and course sites was substantially higher for WTH+SP (0.77) than for WTH scenario (0.47). The maximum difference in observed and simulated peak SWE was 810 mm for WTH and 380 mm for WTH+SP, which led to underestimation of snow season length and melt rate by up to 30 days and 12 mm/day, respectively, in WTH scenario. These results indicate that point scale snow observations at higher elevation can be used to improve precipitation input to hydrologic modeling in mountainous basins.

How spatial and temporal rainfall variability affect runoff across basin scales: insights from field observations in the (semi-)urbanised Charlotte watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ten Veldhuis, M. C.; Smith, J. A.; Zhou, Z.

2017-12-01

Impacts of rainfall variability on runoff response are highly scale-dependent. Sensitivity analyses based on hydrological model simulations have shown that impacts are likely to depend on combinations of storm type, basin versus storm scale, temporal versus spatial rainfall variability. So far, few of these conclusions have been confirmed on observational grounds, since high quality datasets of spatially variable rainfall and runoff over prolonged periods are rare. Here we investigate relationships between rainfall variability and runoff response based on 30 years of radar-rainfall datasets and flow measurements for 16 hydrological basins ranging from 7 to 111 km2. Basins vary not only in scale, but also in their degree of urbanisation. We investigated temporal and spatial variability characteristics of rainfall fields across a range of spatial and temporal scales to identify main drivers for variability in runoff response. We identified 3 ranges of basin size with different temporal versus spatial rainfall variability characteristics. Total rainfall volume proved to be the dominant agent determining runoff response at all basin scales, independent of their degree of urbanisation. Peak rainfall intensity and storm core volume are of secondary importance. This applies to all runoff parameters, including runoff volume, runoff peak, volume-to-peak and lag time. Position and movement of the storm with respect to the basin have a negligible influence on runoff response, with the exception of lag times in some of the larger basins. This highlights the importance of accuracy in rainfall estimation: getting the position right but the volume wrong will inevitably lead to large errors in runoff prediction. Our study helps to identify conditions where rainfall variability matters for correct estimation of the rainfall volume as well as the associated runoff response.

Short-term climate change impacts on Mara basin hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demaria, E. M.; Roy, T.; Valdés, J. B.; Lyon, B.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Durcik, M.; Gupta, H.

2017-12-01

The predictability of climate diminishes significantly at shorter time scales (e.g. decadal). Both natural variability as well as sampling variability of climate can obscure or enhance climate change signals in these shorter scales. Therefore, in order to assess the impacts of climate change on basin hydrology, it is important to design climate projections with exhaustive climate scenarios. In this study, we first create seasonal climate scenarios by combining (1) synthetic precipitation projections generated from a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model using the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit (UEA-CRU) data with (2) seasonal trends calculated from 31 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP). The seasonal climate projections are then disaggregated to daily level using the Agricultural Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (AgMERRA) data. The daily climate data are then bias-corrected and used as forcings to the land-surface model, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), to generate different hydrological projections for the Mara River basin in East Africa, which are then evaluated to study the hydrologic changes in the basin in the next three decades (2020-2050).

a Matlab Toolbox for Basin Scale Fluid Flow Modeling Applied to Hydrology and Geothermal Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alcanie, M.; Lupi, M.; Carrier, A.

2017-12-01

Recent boosts in the development of geothermal energy were fostered by the latest oil crises and by the need of reducing CO2 emissions generated by the combustion of fossil fuels. Various numerical codes (e.g. FEHM, CSMP++, HYDROTHERM, TOUGH) have thus been implemented for the simulation and quantification of fluid flow in the upper crust. One possible limitation of such codes is the limited accessibility and the complex structure of the simulators. For this reason, we began to develop a Hydrothermal Fluid Flow Matlab library as part of MRST (Matlab Reservoir Simulation Toolbox). MRST is designed for the simulation of oil and gas problems including carbon capture storage. However, a geothermal module is still missing. We selected the Geneva Basin as a natural laboratory because of the large amount of data available in the region. The Geneva Basin has been intensely investigated in the past with exploration wells, active seismic and gravity surveys. In addition, the energy strategy of Switzerland promotes the development of geothermal energy that lead to recent geophysical prospections. Previous and ongoing projects have shown the geothermal potential of the Geneva Basin but a consistent fluid flow model assessing the deep circulation in the region is yet to be defined. The first step of the study was to create the basin-scale static model. We integrated available active seismic, gravity inversions and borehole data to describe the principal geologic and tectonic features of the Geneva Basin. Petrophysical parameters were obtained from available and widespread well logs. This required adapting MRST to standard text format file imports and outline a new methodology for quick static model creation in an open source environment. We implemented several basin-scale fluid flow models to test the effects of petrophysical properties on the circulation dynamics of deep fluids in the Geneva Basin. Preliminary results allow the identification of preferential fluid flow pathways, which are critical information to define geothermal exploitation locations. The next step will be the implementation of the equation of state for pure water, CO2 - H2O and H2O - CH4 fluid mixtures.

Upscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandenbulcke, Luc; Barth, Alexander

2017-04-01

In the present European operational oceanography context, global and basin-scale models are run daily at different Monitoring and Forecasting Centers from the Copernicus Marine component (CMEMS). Regional forecasting centers, which run outside of CMEMS, then use these forecasts as initial conditions and/or boundary conditions for high-resolution or coastal forecasts. However, these improved simulations are lost to the basin-scale models (i.e. there is no feedback). Therefore, some potential improvements inside (and even outside) the areas covered by regional models are lost, and the risk for discrepancy between basin-scale and regional model remains high. The objective of this study is to simulate two-way nesting by extracting pseudo-observations from the regional models and assimilating them in the basin-scale models. The proposed method is called "upscaling". A ensemble of 100 one-way nested NEMO models of the Mediterranean Sea (Med) (1/16°) and the North-Western Med (1/80°) is implemented to simulate the period 2014-2015. Each member has perturbed initial conditions, atmospheric forcing fields and river discharge data. The Med model uses climatological Rhone river data, while the nested model uses measured daily discharges. The error of the pseudo-observations can be estimated by analyzing the ensemble of nested models. The pseudo-observations are then assimilated in the parent model by means of an Ensemble Kalman Filter. The experiments show that the proposed method improves different processes in the Med model, such as the position of the Northern Current and its incursion (or not) on the Gulf of Lions, the cold water mass on the shelf, and the position of the Rhone river plume. Regarding areas where no operational regional models exist, (some variables of) the parent model can still be improved by relating some resolved parameters to statistical properties of a higher-resolution simulation. This is the topic of a complementary study also presented at the EGU 2017 (Barth et al).

Evolution of Pull-Apart Basins and Their Scale Independence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aydin, Atilla; Nur, Amos

1982-02-01

Pull-apart basins or rhomb grabens and horsts along major strike-slip fault systems in the world are generally associated with horizontal slip along faults. A simple model suggests that the width of the rhombs is controlled by the initial fault geometry, whereas the length increases with increasing fault displacement. We have tested this model by analyzing the shapes of 70 well-defined rhomb-like pull-apart basins and pressure ridges, ranging from tens of meters to tens of kilometers in length, associated with several major strike-slip faults in the western United States, Israel, Turkey, Iran, Guatemala, Venezuela, and New Zealand. In conflict with the model, we find that the length to width ratio of these basins is a constant value of approximately 3; these basins become wider as they grow longer with increasing fault offset. Two possible mechanisms responsible for the increase in width are suggested: (1) coalescence of neighboring rhomb grabens as each graben increases its length and (2) formation of fault strands parallel to the existing ones when large displacements need to be accommodated. The processes of formation and growth of new fault strands promote interaction among the new faults and between the new and preexisting faults on a larger scale. Increased displacement causes the width of the fault zone to increase resulting in wider pull-apart basins.

Watershed System Model: The Essentials to Model Complex Human-Nature System at the River Basin Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xin; Cheng, Guodong; Lin, Hui; Cai, Ximing; Fang, Miao; Ge, Yingchun; Hu, Xiaoli; Chen, Min; Li, Weiyue

2018-03-01

Watershed system models are urgently needed to understand complex watershed systems and to support integrated river basin management. Early watershed modeling efforts focused on the representation of hydrologic processes, while the next-generation watershed models should represent the coevolution of the water-land-air-plant-human nexus in a watershed and provide capability of decision-making support. We propose a new modeling framework and discuss the know-how approach to incorporate emerging knowledge into integrated models through data exchange interfaces. We argue that the modeling environment is a useful tool to enable effective model integration, as well as create domain-specific models of river basin systems. The grand challenges in developing next-generation watershed system models include but are not limited to providing an overarching framework for linking natural and social sciences, building a scientifically based decision support system, quantifying and controlling uncertainties, and taking advantage of new technologies and new findings in the various disciplines of watershed science. The eventual goal is to build transdisciplinary, scientifically sound, and scale-explicit watershed system models that are to be codesigned by multidisciplinary communities.

On estimating the basin-scale ocean circulation from satellite altimetry. Part 1: Straightforward spherical harmonic expansion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tai, Chang-Kou

1988-01-01

Direct estimation of the absolute dynamic topography from satellite altimetry has been confined to the largest scales (basically the basin-scale) owing to the fact that the signal-to-noise ratio is more unfavorable everywhere else. But even for the largest scales, the results are contaminated by the orbit error and geoid uncertainties. Recently a more accurate Earth gravity model (GEM-T1) became available, providing the opportunity to examine the whole question of direct estimation under a more critical limelight. It is found that our knowledge of the Earth's gravity field has indeed improved a great deal. However, it is not yet possible to claim definitively that our knowledge of the ocean circulation has improved through direct estimation. Yet, the improvement in the gravity model has come to the point that it is no longer possible to attribute the discrepancy at the basin scales between altimetric and hydrographic results as mostly due to geoid uncertainties. A substantial part of the difference must be due to other factors; i.e., the orbit error, or the uncertainty of the hydrographically derived dynamic topography.

Cross - Scale Intercomparison of Climate Change Impacts Simulated by Regional and Global Hydrological Models in Eleven Large River Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Florke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.;

Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.

Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity of impact models designed for either scale to climate variability and change is comparable. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climatemore » change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a much better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases with distinct differences in others, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability, but whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models validated against observed discharge should be used.« less

Crustal-scale geological and thermal models of the Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin, Arctic Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sippel, Judith; Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena; Kröger, Karsten; Lewerenz, Björn

2010-05-01

The Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin is a petroliferous province in northwest Arctic Canada and one of the best-known segments of the Arctic Ocean margin due to decades of exploration. Our study is part of the programme MOM (Methane On the Move), which aims to quantify the methane contribution from natural petroleum systems to the atmosphere over geological times. Models reflecting the potential of a sedimentary basin to release methane require well-assessed boundary conditions such as the crustal structure and large-scale temperature variation. We focus on the crustal-scale thermal field of the Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin. This Basin has formed on a post-rift, continental margin which, during the Late Cretaceous and Tertiary, developed into the foreland of the North American Cordilleran foldbelt providing space for the accumulation of up to 16 km of foreland deposits. We present a 3D geological model which integrates the present topography, depth maps of Upper Cretaceous and Tertiary horizons (Kroeger et al., 2008, 2009), tops of formations derived from interpreted 2D reflection seismic lines and 284 boreholes (released by the National Energy Board of Canada), and the sequence stratigraphic framework established by previous studies (e.g. Dixon et al., 1996). To determine the position and geometry of the crust-mantle boundary, an isostatic calculation (Airýs model) is applied to the geological model. We present different crustal-scale models combining isostatic modelling, published deep reflection and refraction seismic lines (e.g. Stephenson et al., 1994; O'Leary et al., 1995), and calculations of the 3D conductive thermal field. References: Dixon, J., 1996. Geological Atlas of the Beaufort-Mackenzie Area, Geological Survey of Canada Miscellaneous Report, 59, Ottawa, 173 pp. Kroeger, K.F., Ondrak, R., di Primio, R. and Horsfield, B., 2008. A three-dimensional insight into the Mackenzie Basin (Canada): Implications for the thermal history and hydrocarbon generation potential of Tertiary deltaic sequences, AAPG Bulletin, 92(2): 225-247. Kroeger, K.F., di Primio, R. and Horsfield, B., (2009). Hydrocarbon flow modeling in complex structures (Mackenzie Basin, Canada), AAPG Bulletin, 93(9): 1-25. O'Leary, D.M., Ellis, R.M., Stephenson, R.A., Lane, L.S. and Zelt, C.A., 1995. Crustal structure of the northern Yukon and Mackenzie Delta, northwestern Canada, Journal of Geophysical Research 100(B7): 9905-9920. Stephenson, R.A., Coflin, K.C., Lane, L.S. and Dietrich, J.R., 1994. Crustal structure and tectonics of the southeastern Beaufort Sea continental margin, Tectonics, 13(2): 389-400.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Getirana, Augusto; Dutra, Emanuel; Guimberteau, Matthieu

Despite recent advances in modeling and remote sensing of land surfaces, estimates of the global water budget are still fairly uncertain. The objective of this study is to evaluate the water budget of the Amazon basin based on several state-of-the-art land surface model (LSM) outputs. Water budget variables [total water storage (TWS), evapotranspiration (ET), surface runoff (R) and baseflow (B)] are evaluated at the basin scale using both remote sensing and in situ data. Fourteen LSMs were run using meteorological forcings at a 3-hourly time step and 1-degree spatial resolution. Three experiments are performed using precipitation which has been rescaledmore » to match monthly global GPCP and GPCC datasets and the daily HYBAM dataset for the Amazon basin. R and B are used to force the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme and simulated discharges are compared against observations at 165 gauges. Simulated ET and TWS are compared against FLUXNET and MOD16A2 evapotranspiration, and GRACE TWS estimates in different catchments. At the basin scale, simulated ET ranges from 2.39mm.d-1 to 3.26mm.d-1 and a low spatial correlation between ET and P indicates that evapotranspiration does not depend on water availability over most of the basin. Results also show that other simulated water budget variables vary significantly as a function of both the LSM and precipitation used, but simulated TWS generally agree at the basin scale. The best water budget simulations resulted from experiments using the HYBAM dataset, mostly explained by a denser rainfall gauge network the daily rescaling.« less

Application and comparison of the SCS-CN-based rainfall-runoff model in meso-scale watershed and field scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, L.; Wang, Z.

2010-12-01

Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) based hydrologic model, has widely been used for agricultural watersheds in recent years. However, there will be relative error when applying it due to differentiation of geographical and climatological conditions. This paper introduces a more adaptable and propagable model based on the modified SCS-CN method, which specializes into two different scale cases of research regions. Combining the typical conditions of the Zhanghe irrigation district in southern part of China, such as hydrometeorologic conditions and surface conditions, SCS-CN based models were established. The Xinbu-Qiao River basin (area =1207 km2) and the Tuanlin runoff test area (area =2.87 km2)were taken as the study areas of basin scale and field scale in Zhanghe irrigation district. Applications were extended from ordinary meso-scale watershed to field scale in Zhanghe paddy field-dominated irrigated . Based on actual measurement data of land use, soil classification, hydrology and meteorology, quantitative evaluation and modifications for two coefficients, i.e. preceding loss and runoff curve, were proposed with corresponding models, table of CN values for different landuse and AMC(antecedent moisture condition) grading standard fitting for research cases were proposed. The simulation precision was increased by putting forward a 12h unit hydrograph of the field area, and 12h unit hydrograph were simplified. Comparison between different scales show that it’s more effectively to use SCS-CN model on field scale after parameters calibrated in basin scale These results can help discovering the rainfall-runoff rule in the district. Differences of established SCS-CN model's parameters between the two study regions are also considered. Varied forms of landuse and impacts of human activities were the important factors which can impact the rainfall-runoff relations in Zhanghe irrigation district.

Basin-scale simulation of current and potential climate changed hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin, United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christiansen, Daniel E.; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.

2014-01-01

The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) is the largest public investment in the Great Lakes in two decades. A task force of 11 Federal agencies developed an action plan to implement the initiative. The U.S. Department of the Interior was one of the 11 agencies that entered into an interagency agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of the GLRI to complete scientific projects throughout the Great Lakes basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, a bureau within the Department of the Interior, is involved in the GLRI to provide scientific support to management decisions as well as measure progress of the Great Lakes basin restoration efforts. This report presents basin-scale simulated current and forecast climatic and hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin. The forecasts were obtained by constructing and calibrating a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model of the Lake Michigan Basin; the PRMS model was calibrated using the parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis (PEST) software suite. The calibrated model was used to evaluate potential responses to climate change by using four simulated carbon emission scenarios from eight general circulation models released by the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3. Statistically downscaled datasets of these scenarios were used to project hydrologic response for the Lake Michigan Basin. In general, most of the observation sites in the Lake Michigan Basin indicated slight increases in annual streamflow in response to future climate change scenarios. Monthly streamflows indicated a general shift from the current (2014) winter-storage/snowmelt-pulse system to a system with a more equally distributed hydrograph throughout the year. Simulated soil moisture within the basin illustrates that conditions within the basin are also expected to change on a monthly timescale. One effect of increasing air temperature as a result of the changing climate was the appreciable increase in the length of the growing season in the Lake Michigan Basin. The increase in growing season will cause an increase in evapotranspiration across the Lake Michigan Basin, which will directly affect soil moisture and late growing season streamflows. Output from the Lake Michigan Basin PRMS model is available through an online dynamic web mapping service available at (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2014/5175/). The map service includes layers for the each of the 8 global climate models and 4 carbon emission scenarios combinations for 12 hydrologic model state variables. The layers are pre-rendered maps of annual hydrologic response from 1977 through 2099 that provide an easily accessible online method to examine climate change effects across the Lake Michigan Basin.

The use of coupled atmospheric and hydrological models for water-resources management in headwater basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leavesley, G.; Hay, L.

1998-01-01

Coupled atmospheric and hydrological models provide an opportunity for the improved management of water resources in headwater basins. Issues currently limiting full implementation of coupled-model methodologies include (a) the degree of uncertainty in the accuracy of precipitation and other meteorological variables simulated by atmospheric models, and (b) the problem of discordant scales between atmospheric and bydrological models. Alternative methodologies being developed to address these issues are reviewed.

A framework for identifying water management typologies for agent based modeling of water resources and its application in the Boise River Basin, USA.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaiser, K. E.; Flores, A. N.; Hillis, V.; Moroney, J.; Schneider, J.

2017-12-01

Modeling the management of water resources necessitates incorporation of complex social and hydrologic dynamics. Simulation of these socio-ecological systems requires characterization of the decision-making process of relevant actors, the mechanisms through which they exert control on the biophysical system, their ability to react and adapt to regional environmental conditions, and the plausible behaviors in response to changes in those conditions. Agent based models (ABMs) are a useful tool in simulating these complex adaptive systems because they can dynamically couple hydrological models and the behavior of decision making actors. ABMs can provide a flexible, integrated framework that can represent multi-scale interactions, and the heterogeneity of information networks and sources. However, the variability in behavior of water management actors across systems makes characterizing agent behaviors and relationships challenging. Agent typologies, or agent functional types (AFTs), group together individuals and/or agencies with similar functional roles, management objectives, and decision-making strategies. AFTs have been used to represent archetypal land managers in the agricultural and forestry sectors in large-scale socio-economic system models. A similar typology of water actors could simplify the representation of water management across river basins, and increase transferability and scaling of resulting ABMs. Here, we present a framework for identifying and classifying major water actors and show how we will link an ABM of water management to a regional hydrologic model in a western river basin. The Boise River Basin in southwest Idaho is an interesting setting to apply our AFT framework because of the diverse stakeholders and associated management objectives which include managing urban growth pressures and water supply in the face of climate change. Precipitation in the upper basin supplies 90% of the surface water used in the basin, thus managers of the reservoir system (located in the upper basin) must balance flood control for the metropolitan area with water supply for downstream agricultural and hydropower use. Identifying dominant water management typologies that include state and federal agencies will increase the transferability of water management ABMs in the western US.

Studying Basin Water Balance Variations at Inter- and Intra-annual Time Scales Based On the Budyko Hypothesis and GRACE Gravimetry Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, H.

2017-12-01

Increasing intensity in global warming and anthropogenic activities has triggered significant changes over regional climates and landscapes, which, in turn, drive the basin water cycle and hydrological balance into a complex and unstable state. Budyko hypothesis is a powerful tool to characterize basin water balance and hydrological variations at long-term average scale. However, due to the absence of basin water storage change, applications of Budyko theory to the inter-annual and intra-annual time scales has been prohibited. The launch of GRACE gavimetry satellites provides a great opportunity to quantify terrestrial water storage change, which can be further introduced into the Budyko hypothesis to reveal the inter- and intra-annual response of basin water components under impacts of climate variability and/or human activities. This research targeted Hai River Basin (in China) and Murray-Darling Basin (in Australia), which have been identified with a continuous groundwater depletion trend as well as impacts by extreme climates in the past decade. This can help us to explore how annual or seasonal precipitation were redistributed to evapotranspiration and runoff via changing basin water storage. Moreover, the impacts of vegetation on annual basin water balance will be re-examined. Our results are expected to provide deep insights about the water cycle and hydrological behaviors for the targeted basins, as well as a proof for a consideration of basin water storage change into the Budyko model at inter- or intra-annual time steps.

Use of Regional Climate Model Output for Hydrologic Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hay, L. E.; Clark, M. P.; Wilby, R. L.; Gutowski, W. J.; Leavesley, G. H.; Pan, Z.; Arritt, R. W.; Takle, E. S.

2001-12-01

Daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature time series from a Regional Climate Model (RegCM2) were used as input to a distributed hydrologic model for a rainfall-dominated basin (Alapaha River at Statenville, Georgia) and three snowmelt-dominated basins (Animas River at Durango, Colorado; East Fork of the Carson River near Gardnerville, Nevada; and Cle Elum River near Roslyn, Washington). For comparison purposes, spatially averaged daily data sets of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature were developed from measured data. These datasets included precipitation and temperature data for all stations that are located within the area of the RegCM2 model output used for each basin, but excluded station data used to calibrate the hydrologic model. Both the RegCM2 output and station data capture the gross aspects of the seasonal cycles of precipitation and temperature. However, in all four basins, the RegCM2- and station-based simulations of runoff show little skill on a daily basis (Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) values ranging from 0.05-0.37 for RegCM2 and -0.08-0.65 for station). When the precipitation and temperature biases are corrected in the RegCM2 output and station data sets (Bias-RegCM2 and Bias-station, respectively) the accuracy of the daily runoff simulations improve dramatically for the snowmelt-dominated basins. In the rainfall-dominated basin, runoff simulations based on the Bias-RegCM2 output show no skill (NS value of 0.09) whereas Bias-All simulated runoff improves (NS value improved from -0.08 to 0.72). These results indicate that the resolution of the RegCM2 output is appropriate for basin-scale modeling, but RegCM2 model output does not contain the day-to-day variability needed for basin-scale modeling in rainfall-dominated basins. Future work is warranted to identify the causes for systematic biases in RegCM2 simulations, develop methods to remove the biases, and improve RegCM2 simulations of daily variability in local climate.

Assessing and managing water scarcity within the Nile River Transboundary Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butts, M. B.; Wendi, D.; Jessen, O. Z.; Riegels, N. D.

2012-04-01

The Nile Basin is the main source of water in the North Eastern Region of Africa and is perhaps one of the most critical river basins in Africa as the riparian countries constitute 40% of the population on the continent but only 10% of the area. This resource is under considerable stress with rising levels of water scarcity, high population growth, watershed degradation, and loss of environmental services. The potential impacts of climate change may significantly exacerbate this situation as the water resources in the Nile Basin are critically sensitive to climate change (Conway, Hanson, Doherty, & Persechino, 2007). The motivation for this study is an assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation potential for floods and droughts within the UNEP project "Adapting to climate change induced water stress in the Nile River Basin", supported by SIDA. This project is being carried out as collaboration between DHI, the UK Met Office, and the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI). The Nile Basin exhibits highly diverse climatological and hydrological characteristics. Thus climate change impacts and adaptive capacity must be addressed at both regional and sub-basin scales. While the main focus of the project is the regional scale, sub-basin scale modelling is required to reflect variability within the basin. One of the major challenges in addressing this variability is the scarcity of data. This paper presents an initial screening modelling study of the water balance of the Nile Basin along with estimates of expected future impacts of climate change on the water balance. This initial study is focussed on the Ethiopian Highlands and the Lake Victoria regions, where the impact of climate change on rainfall is important. A robust sub-basin based monthly water balance model is developed and applied to selected sub-basins. The models were developed and calibrated using publicly available data. One of the major challenges in addressing this variability within the basin is the scarcity of spatial data and the results for the Kagera sub-basin show that it is important to represent the spatial distribution of the hydro-geographic characteristics such as rainfall, soil type, etc., in order to develop a reasonable representation of the water balance. These initial results show that the changes in the water balance and flow regime under climate change exhibit large uncertainty. From an examination the flow duration curves, however, there seems to be a consensus, based on an ensemble of climate projections, that flows will increase slightly the short term (2011-2030) and decrease significantly in the long term 2080-2099. The large uncertainties together with the natural variability in the Nile suggest that there is a strong need to maximise adaptive capacity with the region.

Basin-scale estimates of oceanic primary production by remote sensing - The North Atlantic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Platt, Trevor; Caverhill, Carla; Sathyendranath, Shubha

1991-01-01

The monthly averaged CZCS data for 1979 are used to estimate annual primary production at ocean basin scales in the North Atlantic. The principal supplementary data used were 873 vertical profiles of chlorophyll and 248 sets of parameters derived from photosynthesis-light experiments. Four different procedures were tested for calculation of primary production. The spectral model with nonuniform biomass was considered as the benchmark for comparison against the other three models. The less complete models gave results that differed by as much as 50 percent from the benchmark. Vertically uniform models tended to underestimate primary production by about 20 percent compared to the nonuniform models. At horizontal scale, the differences between spectral and nonspectral models were negligible. The linear correlation between biomass and estimated production was poor outside the tropics, suggesting caution against the indiscriminate use of biomass as a proxy variable for primary production.

A new surface-process model for landscape evolution at a mountain belt scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willett, Sean D.; Braun, Jean; Herman, Frederic

2010-05-01

We present a new surface process model designed for modeling surface erosion and mass transport at an orogenic scale. Modeling surface processes at a large-scale is difficult because surface geomorphic processes are frequently described at the scale of a few meters, and such resolution cannot be represented in orogen-scale models operating over hundreds of square kilometers. We circumvent this problem by implementing a hybrid numerical -- analytical model. Like many previous models, the model is based on a numerical fluvial network represented by a series of nodes linked by model rivers in a descending network, with fluvial incision and sediment transport defined by laws operating on this network. However we only represent the largest rivers in the landscape by nodes in this model. Low-order rivers and water divides between large rivers are determined from analytical solutions assuming steady-state conditions with respect to the local river channel. The analytical solution includes the same fluvial incision law as the large rivers and a channel head with a specified size and mean slope. This permits a precise representation of the position of water divides between river basins. This is a key characteristic in landscape evolution as divide migration provides a positive feedback between river incision and a consequent increase in drainage area. The analytical solution also provides an explicit criterion for river capture, which occurs once a water divide migrates to its neighboring channel. This algorithm avoids the artificial network organization that often results from meshing and remeshing algorithms in numerical models. We demonstrate the use of this model with several simple examples including uniform uplift of a block, simultaneous uplift and shortening of a block, and a model involving strike slip faulting. We find a strong dependence on initial condition, but also a surprisingly strong dependence on channel head height parameters. Low channel heads, as expected, lead to more fluvial capture, but with low initial relief initial and a small channel-head height, runaway capture is common, with a few rivers capturing much of the available drainage area. With larger channel-head relief, lateral capture of rivers is less common, resulting in evenly spaced river basins. Basin spacing ratios matching those observed in nature are obtained for specific channel head parameters. These models thus demonstrate the mixed control on basin characteristics by antecedent river networks and channel-head parameters, which control the mobility of drainage basin water divides.

Improving Watershed-Scale Hydrodynamic Models by Incorporating Synthetic 3D River Bathymetry Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dey, S.; Saksena, S.; Merwade, V.

2017-12-01

Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) have an incomplete representation of river bathymetry, which is critical for simulating river hydrodynamics in flood modeling. Generally, DEMs are augmented with field collected bathymetry data, but such data are available only at individual reaches. Creating a hydrodynamic model covering an entire stream network in the basin requires bathymetry for all streams. This study extends a conceptual bathymetry model, River Channel Morphology Model (RCMM), to estimate the bathymetry for an entire stream network for application in hydrodynamic modeling using a DEM. It is implemented at two large watersheds with different relief and land use characterizations: coastal Guadalupe River basin in Texas with flat terrain and a relatively urban White River basin in Indiana with more relief. After bathymetry incorporation, both watersheds are modeled using HEC-RAS (1D hydraulic model) and Interconnected Pond and Channel Routing (ICPR), a 2-D integrated hydrologic and hydraulic model. A comparison of the streamflow estimated by ICPR at the outlet of the basins indicates that incorporating bathymetry influences streamflow estimates. The inundation maps show that bathymetry has a higher impact on flat terrains of Guadalupe River basin when compared to the White River basin.

Statistical downscaling of GCM simulations to streamflow using relevance vector machine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Subimal; Mujumdar, P. P.

2008-01-01

General circulation models (GCMs), the climate models often used in assessing the impact of climate change, operate on a coarse scale and thus the simulation results obtained from GCMs are not particularly useful in a comparatively smaller river basin scale hydrology. The article presents a methodology of statistical downscaling based on sparse Bayesian learning and Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) to model streamflow at river basin scale for monsoon period (June, July, August, September) using GCM simulated climatic variables. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data have been used for training the model to establish a statistical relationship between streamflow and climatic variables. The relationship thus obtained is used to project the future streamflow from GCM simulations. The statistical methodology involves principal component analysis, fuzzy clustering and RVM. Different kernel functions are used for comparison purpose. The model is applied to Mahanadi river basin in India. The results obtained using RVM are compared with those of state-of-the-art Support Vector Machine (SVM) to present the advantages of RVMs over SVMs. A decreasing trend is observed for monsoon streamflow of Mahanadi due to high surface warming in future, with the CCSR/NIES GCM and B2 scenario.

Estimating aquifer properties using time-lapse, high precision gravity surveys and groundwater modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keating, E.; Cogbill, A. H.; Ferguson, J. F.

2003-12-01

In the past, gravity methods have had limited application for monitoring aquifers, primarily due to the poor drift characteristics of relative gravimeters, which made long-term gravity studies of aquifers prohibitively expensive. Recent developments in portable, very accurate, absolute gravity instruments having essentially zero long-term drift have reawakened interest in using gravity methods for hydrologic monitoring. Such instruments have accuracies of 7 microGals or better and can acquire measurements at the rate of better than one station per hour. Theoretically, temporal changes in gravity can be used to infer storage characteristics and fluxes into and out of the aquifer. The sensitivity of the method to scaling effects, temporal lags between recharge/discharge and changes in storage, and to uncertainties in aquifer structure are poorly understood. In preparation for interpreting a basin-scale, time-lapse gravity data set, we have established a network of gravity stations within the Espanola Basin in northern New Mexico, a semi-arid region which is experiencing rapid population growth and groundwater resource use. We are using an existing basin-scale groundwater flow model to predict changes in mass, given our current level of understanding of inflows, outflows, and aquifer properties. Preliminary model results will be used to examine scaling issues related to the spatial density of the gravity station network and depths to the regional water table. By modeling the gravitational response to water movement in the aquifer, we study the sensitivity of gravity measurements to aquifer storage properties, given other known uncertainties in basin-scale fluxes. Results will be used to evaluate the adequacy of the existing network and to modify its design, if necessary.

Pull-Apart vs. Subduction Rollback Mechanisms For The Cenozoic Formation Of Bohai Basin, Eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellanos, H. A.; Mann, P.

2005-12-01

The Bohai basin of eastern China covers an area of about 200,000 km2 and forms one of a family of basins that record Cenozoic extension along the eastern margin of Asia from Viet Nam to northeastern Russia. Two very different deformational mechanisms have been proposed for the Cenozoic formation of the Bohai basin. The first model proposes a two-stage extension model consisting of Paleogene rifting in a WNW-ESE direction followed by Neogene thermal subsidence that controlled overlying and less deformed sag basins above the rifted section (Ye et al., 1985). The mechanism for two-stage rifting is generally attributed to rollback of the subducted Pacific plate beneath the Asian continent, lithospheric extension of the overriding continental plate, and thermally-driven, regional subsidence. A second model invokes a more localized Cenozoic pull-apart basin formed at a right-step in a right-lateral shear system parallel to the Asian continental margin (Allen et al., 1997). Earthquakes and GPS data indicate that right-lateral strike-slip faulting continues to the present-day in a pattern consistent with the regional-scale "lazy-Z" map pattern of the Cenozoic Bohai depocenter. Allen et al. (1997) propose the subsurface of the large pull-apart structure contains diffuse, sub-parallel strike-slip faults offset by smaller-scale, intrabasinal stepovers. In order to better distinguish the timing and mechanism for the formation of the Bohai basin, we have interpreted 1400 km of offshore 2D seismic data, a 3D seismic volume, and integrated lithostratigraphic data from 6 wells that are tied to these reflection data. Three major units were identified and mapped on a basin-wide scale: basement, a syn-rift unit, and a post-rift sag unit. Thickening trends and ages indicate the syn-rift phase occurred from late Paleocene to late Oligocene. Basin opening occurred on a series of half-grabens trending NNE-SSW. Rifting ended during the late Oligocene when a regional uplift and erosional event affected the basin. The Miocene to recent was marked by the formation of sag basins deformed by widely-spaced strike-slip faults. These active strike-slip faults are commonly localized on earlier normal faults. Given these observations a three stage basin history is proposed: 1) Eocene-late Oligocene basin opening across a diffuse set of half-grabens; the pattern of rifts supports a regional extension possibly related to subduction rollback of the Pacific plate; 2) a late Oligocene uplift and erosional event of unknown origin; and 3) late Oligocene to recent strike-slip faulting; the regional-scale "lazy-Z" map pattern of Bohai depocenter indicates the importance of right-stepping pull-apart control on the younger sag section.

Large-scale hydrological simulations using the soil water assessment tool, protocol development, and application in the danube basin.

PubMed

Pagliero, Liliana; Bouraoui, Fayçal; Willems, Patrick; Diels, Jan

2014-01-01

The Water Framework Directive of the European Union requires member states to achieve good ecological status of all water bodies. A harmonized pan-European assessment of water resources availability and quality, as affected by various management options, is necessary for a successful implementation of European environmental legislation. In this context, we developed a methodology to predict surface water flow at the pan-European scale using available datasets. Among the hydrological models available, the Soil Water Assessment Tool was selected because its characteristics make it suitable for large-scale applications with limited data requirements. This paper presents the results for the Danube pilot basin. The Danube Basin is one of the largest European watersheds, covering approximately 803,000 km and portions of 14 countries. The modeling data used included land use and management information, a detailed soil parameters map, and high-resolution climate data. The Danube Basin was divided into 4663 subwatersheds of an average size of 179 km. A modeling protocol is proposed to cope with the problems of hydrological regionalization from gauged to ungauged watersheds and overparameterization and identifiability, which are usually present during calibration. The protocol involves a cluster analysis for the determination of hydrological regions and multiobjective calibration using a combination of manual and automated calibration. The proposed protocol was successfully implemented, with the modeled discharges capturing well the overall hydrological behavior of the basin. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Characterizing the utility of the TMPA real-time product for hydrologic predictions over global river basins across scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, H.; Zhang, S.; Nijssen, B.; Zhou, T.; Voisin, N.; Sheffield, J.; Lee, K.; Shukla, S.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

Despite its errors and uncertainties, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis real-time product (TMPA-RT) has been widely used for hydrological monitoring and forecasting due to its timely availability for real-time applications. To evaluate the utility of TMPA-RT in hydrologic predictions, many studies have compared modeled streamflows driven by TMPA-RT against gauge data. However, because of the limited availability of streamflow observations in data sparse regions, there is still a lack of comprehensive comparisons for TMPA-RT based hydrologic predictions at the global scale. Furthermore, it is expected that its skill is less optimal at the subbasin scale than the basin scale. In this study, we evaluate and characterize the utility of the TMPA-RT product over selected global river basins during the period of 1998 to 2015 using the TMPA research product (TMPA-RP) as a reference. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which was calibrated and validated previously, is adopted to simulate streamflows driven by TMPA-RT and TMPA-RP, respectively. The objective of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of the hydrologic predictions by answering the following questions: (1) How do the precipitation errors associated with the TMPA-RT product transform into streamflow errors with respect to geographical and climatological characteristics? (2) How do streamflow errors vary across scales within a basin?

Integration of hydrologic and water allocation models in basin-scale water resources management considering crop pattern and climate change: Karkheh River Basin in Iran

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The paradigm of integrated water resources management requires coupled analysis of hydrology and water resources in a river basin. Population growth and uncertainties due to climate change make historic data not a reliable source of information for future planning of water resources, hence necessit...

Effect of climate change on environmental flow indicators in the narew basin, poland.

PubMed

Piniewski, Mikołaj; Laizé, Cédric L R; Acreman, Michael C; Okruszko, Tomasz; Schneider, Christof

2014-01-01

Environmental flows-the quantity of water required to maintain a river ecosystem in its desired state-are of particular importance in areas of high natural value. Water-dependent ecosystems are exposed to the risk of climate change through altered precipitation and evaporation. Rivers in the Narew basin in northeastern Poland are known for their valuable river and wetland ecosystems, many of them in pristine or near-pristine condition. The objective of this study was to assess changes in the environmental flow regime of the Narew river system, caused by climate change, as simulated by hydrological models with different degrees of physical characterization and spatial aggregation. Two models were assessed: the river basin scale model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the continental model of water availability and use WaterGAP. Future climate change scenarios were provided by two general circulation models coupled with the A2 emission scenario: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2. To assess the impact of climate change on environmental flows, a method based conceptually on the "range of variability" approach was used. The results indicate that the environmental flow regime in the Narew basin is subject to climate change risk, whose magnitude and spatial variability varies with climate model and hydrological modeling scale. Most of the analyzed sites experienced moderate impacts for the Generic Environmental Flow Indicator (GEFI), the Floodplain Inundation Indicator, and the River Habitat Availability Indicator. The consistency between SWAT and WaterGAP for GEFI was medium: in 55 to 66% of analyzed sites, the models suggested the same level of impact. Hence, we suggest that state-of-the-art, high-resolution, global- or continental-scale models, such as WaterGAP, could be useful tools for water management decision-makers and wetland conservation practitioners, whereas models such as SWAT should serve as a complementary tool for more specific, smaller-scale, local assessments. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Estimation of regional-scale groundwater flow properties in the Bengal Basin of India and Bangladesh

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, H.A.; Voss, C.I.

2009-01-01

Quantitative evaluation of management strategies for long-term supply of safe groundwater for drinking from the Bengal Basin aquifer (India and Bangladesh) requires estimation of the large-scale hydrogeologic properties that control flow. The Basin consists of a stratified, heterogeneous sequence of sediments with aquitards that may separate aquifers locally, but evidence does not support existence of regional confining units. Considered at a large scale, the Basin may be aptly described as a single aquifer with higher horizontal than vertical hydraulic conductivity. Though data are sparse, estimation of regional-scale aquifer properties is possible from three existing data types: hydraulic heads, 14C concentrations, and driller logs. Estimation is carried out with inverse groundwater modeling using measured heads, by model calibration using estimated water ages based on 14C, and by statistical analysis of driller logs. Similar estimates of hydraulic conductivities result from all three data types; a resulting typical value of vertical anisotropy (ratio of horizontal to vertical conductivity) is 104. The vertical anisotropy estimate is supported by simulation of flow through geostatistical fields consistent with driller log data. The high estimated value of vertical anisotropy in hydraulic conductivity indicates that even disconnected aquitards, if numerous, can strongly control the equivalent hydraulic parameters of an aquifer system. ?? US Government 2009.

Projections of the Ganges-Brahmaputra precipitation: downscaled from GCM predictors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pervez, Md Shahriar; Henebry, Geoffrey M.

2014-01-01

Downscaling Global Climate Model (GCM) projections of future climate is critical for impact studies. Downscaling enables use of GCM experiments for regional scale impact studies by generating regionally specific forecasts connecting global scale predictions and regional scale dynamics. We employed the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) to downscale 21st century precipitation for two data-sparse hydrologically challenging river basins in South Asia—the Ganges and the Brahmaputra. We used CGCM3.1 by Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis version 3.1 predictors in downscaling the precipitation. Downscaling was performed on the basis of established relationships between historical Global Summary of Day observed precipitation records from 43 stations and National Center for Environmental Prediction re-analysis large scale atmospheric predictors. Although the selection of predictors was challenging during the set-up of SDSM, they were found to be indicative of important physical forcings in the basins. The precipitation of both basins was largely influenced by geopotential height: the Ganges precipitation was modulated by the U component of the wind and specific humidity at 500 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels; whereas, the Brahmaputra precipitation was modulated by the V component of the wind at 850 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels. The evaluation of the SDSM performance indicated that model accuracy for reproducing precipitation at the monthly scale was acceptable, but at the daily scale the model inadequately simulated some daily extreme precipitation events. Therefore, while the downscaled precipitation may not be the suitable input to analyze future extreme flooding or drought events, it could be adequate for analysis of future freshwater availability. Analysis of the CGCM3.1 downscaled precipitation projection with respect to observed precipitation reveals that the precipitation regime in each basin may be significantly impacted by climate change. Precipitation during and after the monsoon is likely to increase in both basins under the A1B and A2 emission scenarios; whereas, the pre-monsoon precipitation is likely to decrease. Peak monsoon precipitation is likely to shift from July to August, and may impact the livelihoods of large rural populations linked to subsistence agriculture in the basins. Uncertainty analysis of the downscaled precipitation indicated that the uncertainty in the downscaled precipitation was less than the uncertainty in the original CGCM3.1 precipitation; hence, the CGCM3.1 downscaled precipitation was a better input for the regional hydrological impact studies. However, downscaled precipitation from multiple GCMs is suggested for comprehensive impact studies.

Reconciling Basin-Scale Top-Down and Bottom-Up Methane Emission Measurements for Onshore Oil and Gas Development: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-14-572

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heath, Garvin A.

The overall objective of the Research Partnership to Secure Energy for America (RPSEA)-funded research project is to develop independent estimates of methane emissions using top-down and bottom-up measurement approaches and then to compare the estimates, including consideration of uncertainty. Such approaches will be applied at two scales: basin and facility. At facility scale, multiple methods will be used to measure methane emissions of the whole facility (controlled dual tracer and single tracer releases, aircraft-based mass balance and Gaussian back-trajectory), which are considered top-down approaches. The bottom-up approach will sum emissions from identified point sources measured using appropriate source-level measurement techniquesmore » (e.g., high-flow meters). At basin scale, the top-down estimate will come from boundary layer airborne measurements upwind and downwind of the basin, using a regional mass balance model plus approaches to separate atmospheric methane emissions attributed to the oil and gas sector. The bottom-up estimate will result from statistical modeling (also known as scaling up) of measurements made at selected facilities, with gaps filled through measurements and other estimates based on other studies. The relative comparison of the bottom-up and top-down estimates made at both scales will help improve understanding of the accuracy of the tested measurement and modeling approaches. The subject of this CRADA is NREL's contribution to the overall project. This project resulted from winning a competitive solicitation no. RPSEA RFP2012UN001, proposal no. 12122-95, which is the basis for the overall project. This Joint Work Statement (JWS) details the contributions of NREL and Colorado School of Mines (CSM) in performance of the CRADA effort.« less

Crucial nesting habitat for gunnison sage-grouse: A spatially explicit hierarchical approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aldridge, Cameron L.; Saher, D.J.; Childers, T.M.; Stahlnecker, K.E.; Bowen, Z.H.

2012-01-01

Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of special concern and is currently considered a candidate species under Endangered Species Act. Careful management is therefore required to ensure that suitable habitat is maintained, particularly because much of the species' current distribution is faced with exurban development pressures. We assessed hierarchical nest site selection patterns of Gunnison sage-grouse inhabiting the western portion of the Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA, at multiple spatial scales, using logistic regression-based resource selection functions. Models were selected using Akaike Information Criterion corrected for small sample sizes (AIC c) and predictive surfaces were generated using model averaged relative probabilities. Landscape-scale factors that had the most influence on nest site selection included the proportion of sagebrush cover >5%, mean productivity, and density of 2 wheel-drive roads. The landscape-scale predictive surface captured 97% of known Gunnison sage-grouse nests within the top 5 of 10 prediction bins, implicating 57% of the basin as crucial nesting habitat. Crucial habitat identified by the landscape model was used to define the extent for patch-scale modeling efforts. Patch-scale variables that had the greatest influence on nest site selection were the proportion of big sagebrush cover >10%, distance to residential development, distance to high volume paved roads, and mean productivity. This model accurately predicted independent nest locations. The unique hierarchical structure of our models more accurately captures the nested nature of habitat selection, and allowed for increased discrimination within larger landscapes of suitable habitat. We extrapolated the landscape-scale model to the entire Gunnison Basin because of conservation concerns for this species. We believe this predictive surface is a valuable tool which can be incorporated into land use and conservation planning as well the assessment of future land-use scenarios. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Analogue scale modelling of extensional tectonic processes using a large state-of-the-art centrifuge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Heon-Joon; Lee, Changyeol

2017-04-01

Analogue scale modelling of extensional tectonic processes such as rifting and basin opening has been numerously conducted. Among the controlling factors, gravitational acceleration (g) on the scale models was regarded as a constant (Earth's gravity) in the most of the analogue model studies, and only a few model studies considered larger gravitational acceleration by using a centrifuge (an apparatus generating large centrifugal force by rotating the model at a high speed). Although analogue models using a centrifuge allow large scale-down and accelerated deformation that is derived by density differences such as salt diapir, the possible model size is mostly limited up to 10 cm. A state-of-the-art centrifuge installed at the KOCED Geotechnical Centrifuge Testing Center, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST) allows a large surface area of the scale-models up to 70 by 70 cm under the maximum capacity of 240 g-tons. Using the centrifuge, we will conduct analogue scale modelling of the extensional tectonic processes such as opening of the back-arc basin. Acknowledgement This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education (grant number 2014R1A6A3A04056405).

Evaluating GCM land surface hydrology parameterizations by computing river discharges using a runoff routing model: Application to the Mississippi basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liston, G. E.; Sud, Y. C.; Wood, E. F.

1994-01-01

To relate general circulation model (GCM) hydrologic output to readily available river hydrographic data, a runoff routing scheme that routes gridded runoffs through regional- or continental-scale river drainage basins is developed. By following the basin overland flow paths, the routing model generates river discharge hydrographs that can be compared to observed river discharges, thus allowing an analysis of the GCM representation of monthly, seasonal, and annual water balances over large regions. The runoff routing model consists of two linear reservoirs, a surface reservoir and a groundwater reservoir, which store and transport water. The water transport mechanisms operating within these two reservoirs are differentiated by their time scales; the groundwater reservoir transports water much more slowly than the surface reservior. The groundwater reservior feeds the corresponding surface store, and the surface stores are connected via the river network. The routing model is implemented over the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project Mississippi River basin on a rectangular grid of 2 deg X 2.5 deg. Two land surface hydrology parameterizations provide the gridded runoff data required to run the runoff routing scheme: the variable infiltration capacity model, and the soil moisture component of the simple biosphere model. These parameterizations are driven with 4 deg X 5 deg gridded climatological potential evapotranspiration and 1979 First Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP) Global Experiment precipitation. These investigations have quantified the importance of physically realistic soil moisture holding capacities, evaporation parameters, and runoff mechanisms in land surface hydrology formulations.

Quantitative challenges to our understanding of the tectonostratigraphic evolution of rift basin systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsen, P. E.; Kent, D. V.

2012-12-01

Pervasive orbitally-paced lake level cycles combined with magnetic polarity stratigraphy in central Pangean early Mesozoic rift basins provide a thus far unique and very large-scale quantitative basis for observing patterns of basin fill and comparisons with other basins. The 32 Myr accumulation rate history of the Newark basin is segmented into intervals lasting millions of years with virtually no change in the long-term accumulation rate (at the 400-kyr-scale), and the transitions between segments are abrupt and apparently basin-wide. This is startling, because the basin geometry was, and is, a half graben - triangular in cross section and dish-shaped in along-strike section. The long periods of time with virtually no change is challenging given a simple model of basin growth (1), suggesting some kind of compensation in sediment input for the increasing surface of the area of the basin through time. Perhaps even more challenging are observations based on magnetic polarity stratigraphy and the cyclicity, that basins distributed over a huge area of central Pangea (~700,000 km2) show parallel and correlative quantitative changes in accumulation rate with those of the Newark basin. The synchronous changes in the accumulation rate in these basins suggests a very large-scale linkage, the only plausible mechanism for which would seem to be at the plate-tectonic scale, perhaps involving extension rates. Together, we can speculate that some kind of balance between extension rates, basin accommodation space and perhaps regional drainage basin size might have been in operation The most dramatic accumulation rate change in the basins' histories occurred close to, and perhaps causally related to, the Triassic-Jurassic boundary and end-Triassic extinction. The Newark basin, for example exhibits a 4-to-5-fold increase in accumulation rate during the emplacement of the brief (<1 Myr) and aerially massive Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP) beginning at 201.5 Ma, the only igneous event known during this long rifting episode. Parallel and correlative accumulation rate changes are seen in several of the other northern basins within central Pangea. Surprisingly, the rate of accommodation growth apparently increased dramatically during this time, because not only did the accumulation rate dramatically increase, the lakes apparently deepened during the same time as a huge volume of CAMP igneous material entered the basins. At the same time, the more southern basins in the southeastern US, apparently ceased to subside (2). Our ability to measure time in these rift basins using the orbitally-paced cycles, coupled with the ability to correlate between the basins using magnetic polarity stratigraphy, challenges us to form new mechanistic explanations and quantitative models to test against this rich library of observations. References: 1) Schlische RW & Olsen PE, 1990, Jour. Geol. 98:135. 2) Schlische et al., 2003, in Hames WE et al. (eds), Geophys. Monogr. 136:61.

Watershed Models for Predicting Nitrogen Loads from Artificially Drained Lands

Treesearch

R. Wayne Skaggs; George M. Chescheir; Glenn Fernandez; Devendra M. Amatya

2003-01-01

Non-point sources of pollutants originate at the field scale but water quality problems usually occur at the watershed or basin scale. This paper describes a series of models developed for poorly drained watersheds. The models use DRAINMOD to predict hydrology at the field scale and a range of methods to predict channel hydraulics and nitrogen transport. In-stream...

Controls on groundwater flow in the Bengal Basin of India and Bangladesh: Regional modeling analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, H.A.; Voss, C.I.

2009-01-01

Groundwater for domestic and irrigation purposes is produced primarily from shallow parts of the Bengal Basin aquifer system (India and Bangladesh), which contains high concentrations of dissolved arsenic (exceeding worldwide drinking water standards), though deeper groundwater is generally low in arsenic. An essential first step for determining sustainable management of the deep groundwater resource is identification of hydrogeologic controls on flow and quantification of basin-scale groundwater flow patterns. Results from groundwater modeling, in which the Bengal Basin aquifer system is represented as a single aquifer with higher horizontal than vertical hydraulic conductivity, indicate that this anisotropy is the primary hydrogeologic control on the natural flowpath lengths. Despite extremely low hydraulic gradients due to minimal topographic relief, anisotropy implies large-scale (tens to hundreds of kilometers) flow at depth. Other hydrogeologic factors, including lateral and vertical changes in hydraulic conductivity, have minor effects on overall flow patterns. However, because natural hydraulic gradients are low, the impact of pumping on groundwater flow is overwhelming; modeling indicates that pumping has substantially changed the shallow groundwater budget and flowpaths from predevelopment conditions. ?? Springer-Verlag 2009.

Controls on groundwater flow in the Bengal Basin of India and Bangladesh: regional modeling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michael, Holly A.; Voss, Clifford I.

2009-11-01

Groundwater for domestic and irrigation purposes is produced primarily from shallow parts of the Bengal Basin aquifer system (India and Bangladesh), which contains high concentrations of dissolved arsenic (exceeding worldwide drinking water standards), though deeper groundwater is generally low in arsenic. An essential first step for determining sustainable management of the deep groundwater resource is identification of hydrogeologic controls on flow and quantification of basin-scale groundwater flow patterns. Results from groundwater modeling, in which the Bengal Basin aquifer system is represented as a single aquifer with higher horizontal than vertical hydraulic conductivity, indicate that this anisotropy is the primary hydrogeologic control on the natural flowpath lengths. Despite extremely low hydraulic gradients due to minimal topographic relief, anisotropy implies large-scale (tens to hundreds of kilometers) flow at depth. Other hydrogeologic factors, including lateral and vertical changes in hydraulic conductivity, have minor effects on overall flow patterns. However, because natural hydraulic gradients are low, the impact of pumping on groundwater flow is overwhelming; modeling indicates that pumping has substantially changed the shallow groundwater budget and flowpaths from predevelopment conditions.

Combining numerical modeling and stable isotope values to quantify groundwater recharge from the Chilean Andes to the Pampa del Tamarugal Basin, Atacama Desert, northern Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dodd, J. P.; Pollyea, R.

2014-12-01

The Atacama Desert of northern Chile is one of the driest regions on Earth and receives less than 5mm of precipitation annually. The Pampa del Tamarugal (PdT) Basin contains the largest aquifer system in the region, yet the mechanisms and timing of aquifer recharge and continental-scale groundwater flux are poorly understood. Although there is little debate that the source of groundwater recharge is the higher elevation regions of the Andean Altiplano to the east of the PdT Basin, there remains much uncertainty surrounding the mechanisms and timing of aquifer recharge and continental-scale groundwater flux. Most recharge models of the PdT focus on surface water runoff and alluvial fan recharge on shorter time scales, but many of these models explicitly neglect deep flow pathways. Previous investigators have combined the thermal aquifer profile and 14C groundwater ages to propose an alternative conceptual model in which cold meteoric water infiltrates deep into the Cordillera before circulating upward into the PdT by thermal convection through fault-controlled migration pathways. Although this conceptual model provides a convincing theoretical argument for deep fluid circulation, it cannot constrain the magnitude of this deep recharge flux. In this work, we revisit deep-flow conceptual model by combining the spatial distribution of hydrogen and oxygen isotope values as groundwater tracers with a non-isothermal model of continental scale groundwater flow through a two-dimensional transect from the Chilean Andes to the PdT Basin. This work provides first-order estimates on the contribution of deep groundwater circulation within the PdT Aquifer, while providing a framework for (1) quantifying boundary conditions for high resolution models of groundwater resources within the PdT Aquifer, (2) assessing the influence of variable future climate scenarios for groundwater availability in the region, and (3) further integrating conservative tracers and numerical models for groundwater resource evaluation in hyperarid environments.

How Much Water is in That Snowpack? Improving Basin-wide Snow Water Equivalent Estimates from the Airborne Snow Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bormann, K.; Painter, T. H.; Marks, D. G.; Kirchner, P. B.; Winstral, A. H.; Ramirez, P.; Goodale, C. E.; Richardson, M.; Berisford, D. F.

2014-12-01

In the western US, snowmelt from the mountains contribute the vast majority of fresh water supply, in an otherwise dry region. With much of California currently experiencing extreme drought, it is critical for water managers to have accurate basin-wide estimations of snow water content during the spring melt season. At the forefront of basin-scale snow monitoring is the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO). With combined LiDAR /spectrometer instruments and weekly flights over key basins throughout California, the ASO suite is capable of retrieving high-resolution basin-wide snow depth and albedo observations. To make best use of these high-resolution snow depths, spatially distributed snow density data are required to leverage snow water equivalent (SWE) from the measured depths. Snow density is a spatially and temporally variable property and is difficult to estimate at basin scales. Currently, ASO uses a physically based snow model (iSnobal) to resolve distributed snow density dynamics across the basin. However, there are issues with the density algorithms in iSnobal, particularly with snow depths below 0.50 m. This shortcoming limited the use of snow density fields from iSnobal during the poor snowfall year of 2014 in the Sierra Nevada, where snow depths were generally low. A deeper understanding of iSnobal model performance and uncertainty for snow density estimation is required. In this study, the model is compared to an existing climate-based statistical method for basin-wide snow density estimation in the Tuolumne basin in the Sierra Nevada and sparse field density measurements. The objective of this study is to improve the water resource information provided to water managers during ASO operation in the future by reducing the uncertainty introduced during the snow depth to SWE conversion.

Coupling a basin erosion and river sediment transport model into a large scale hydrological model: an application in the Amazon basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buarque, D. C.; Collischonn, W.; Paiva, R. C. D.

2012-04-01

This study presents the first application and preliminary results of the large scale hydrodynamic/hydrological model MGB-IPH with a new module to predict the spatial distribution of the basin erosion and river sediment transport in a daily time step. The MGB-IPH is a large-scale, distributed and process based hydrological model that uses a catchment based discretization and the Hydrological Response Units (HRU) approach. It uses physical based equations to simulate the hydrological processes, such as the Penman Monteith model for evapotranspiration, and uses the Muskingum Cunge approach and a full 1D hydrodynamic model for river routing; including backwater effects and seasonal flooding. The sediment module of the MGB-IPH model is divided into two components: 1) prediction of erosion over the basin and sediment yield to river network; 2) sediment transport along the river channels. Both MGB-IPH and the sediment module use GIS tools to display relevant maps and to extract parameters from SRTM DEM (a 15" resolution was adopted). Using the catchment discretization the sediment module applies the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation to predict soil loss from each HRU considering three sediment classes defined according to the soil texture: sand, silt and clay. The effects of topography on soil erosion are estimated by a two-dimensional slope length (LS) factor which using the contributing area approach and a local slope steepness (S), both estimated for each DEM pixel using GIS algorithms. The amount of sediment releasing to the catchment river reach in each day is calculated using a linear reservoir. Once the sediment reaches the river they are transported into the river channel using an advection equation for silt and clay and a sediment continuity equation for sand. A sediment balance based on the Yang sediment transport capacity, allowing to compute the amount of erosion and deposition along the rivers, is performed for sand particles as bed load, whilst no erosion or deposition is allowed for silt and clay. The model was first applied on the Madeira River basin, one of the major tributaries of the Amazon River (~1.4*106 km2) accounting for 35% of the suspended sediment amount annually transported for the Amazon river to the ocean. Model results agree with observed data, mainly for monthly and annual time scales. The spatial distribution of soil erosion within the basin showed a large amount of sediment being delivered from the Andean regions of Bolivia and Peru. Spatial distribution of mean annual sediment along the river showed that Madre de Dios, Mamoré and Beni rivers transport the major amount of sediment. Simulated daily suspended solid discharge agree with observed data. The model is able to provide temporaly and spatialy distributed estimates of soil loss source over the basin, locations with tendency for erosion or deposition along the rivers, and to reproduce long term sediment yield at several locations. Despite model results are encouraging, further effort is needed to validate the model considering the scarcity of data at large scale.

Understanding CO2 Plume Behavior and Basin-Scale Pressure Changes during Sequestration Projects through the use of Reservoir Fluid Modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leetaru, H.E.; Frailey, S.M.; Damico, J.; Mehnert, E.; Birkholzer, J.; Zhou, Q.; Jordan, P.D.

2009-01-01

Large scale geologic sequestration tests are in the planning stages around the world. The liability and safety issues of the migration of CO2 away from the primary injection site and/or reservoir are of significant concerns for these sequestration tests. Reservoir models for simulating single or multi-phase fluid flow are used to understand the migration of CO2 in the subsurface. These models can also help evaluate concerns related to brine migration and basin-scale pressure increases that occur due to the injection of additional fluid volumes into the subsurface. The current paper presents different modeling examples addressing these issues, ranging from simple geometric models to more complex reservoir fluid models with single-site and basin-scale applications. Simple geometric models assuming a homogeneous geologic reservoir and piston-like displacement have been used for understanding pressure changes and fluid migration around each CO2 storage site. These geometric models are useful only as broad approximations because they do not account for the variation in porosity, permeability, asymmetry of the reservoir, and dip of the beds. In addition, these simple models are not capable of predicting the interference between different injection sites within the same reservoir. A more realistic model of CO2 plume behavior can be produced using reservoir fluid models. Reservoir simulation of natural gas storage reservoirs in the Illinois Basin Cambrian-age Mt. Simon Sandstone suggest that reservoir heterogeneity will be an important factor for evaluating storage capacity. The Mt. Simon Sandstone is a thick sandstone that underlies many significant coal fired power plants (emitting at least 1 million tonnes per year) in the midwestern United States including the states of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, and Ohio. The initial commercial sequestration sites are expected to inject 1 to 2 million tonnes of CO2 per year. Depending on the geologic structure and permeability anisotropy, the CO2 injected into the Mt. Simon are expected to migrate less than 3 km. After 30 years of continuous injection followed by 100 years of shut-in, the plume from a 1 million tonnes a year injection rate is expected to migrate 1.6 km for a 0 degree dip reservoir and over 3 km for a 5 degree dip reservoir. The region where reservoir pressure increases in response to CO2 injection is typically much larger than the CO2 plume. It can thus be anticipated that there will be basin wide interactions between different CO2 injection sources if multiple, large volume sites are developed. This interaction will result in asymmetric plume migration that may be contrary to reservoir dip. A basin- scale simulation model is being developed to predict CO2 plume migration, brine displacement, and pressure buildup for a possible future sequestration scenario featuring multiple CO2 storage sites within the Illinois Basin Mt. Simon Sandstone. Interactions between different sites will be evaluated with respect to impacts on pressure and CO2 plume migration patterns. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling Surface Water Dynamics in the Amazon Basin Using Mosart-Inundation-v1.0: Impacts of Geomorphological Parameters and River Flow Representation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luo, Xiangyu; Li, Hong-Yi; Leung, Ruby; Tesfa, Teklu K.; Getirana, Augusto; Papa, Fabrice; Hess, Laura L.

2017-01-01

Surface water dynamics play an important role in water, energy and carbon cycles of the Amazon Basin. A macro-scale inundation scheme was integrated with a surface-water transport model and the extended model was applied in this vast basin. We addressed the challenges of improving basin-wide geomorphological parameters and river flow representation for 15 large-scale applications. Vegetation-caused biases embedded in the HydroSHEDS DEM data were alleviated by using a vegetation height map of about 1-km resolution and a land cover dataset of about 90-m resolution. The average elevation deduction from the DEM correction was about 13.2 m for the entire basin. Basin-wide empirical formulae for channel cross-sectional geometry were adjusted based on local information for the major portion of the basin, which could significantly reduce the cross-sectional area for the channels of some subregions. The Manning roughness coefficient of the channel 20 varied with the channel depth to reflect the general rule that the relative importance of riverbed resistance in river flow declined with the increase of river size. The entire basin was discretized into 5395 subbasins (with an average area of 1091.7 km2), which were used as computation units. The model was driven by runoff estimates of 14 years (1994 2007) generated by the ISBA land surface model. The simulated results were evaluated against in situ streamflow records, and remotely sensed Envisat altimetry data and GIEMS inundation data. The hydrographs were reproduced fairly well for the majority of 25 13 major stream gauges. For the 11 subbasins containing or close to 11 of the 13 gauges, the timing of river stage fluctuations was captured; for most of the 11 subbasins, the magnitude of river stage fluctuations was represented well. The inundation estimates were comparable to the GIEMS observations. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that refining floodplain topography, channel morphology and Manning roughness coefficients, as well as accounting for backwater effects could evidently affect local and upstream inundation, which consequently affected flood waves and inundation of the downstream 30 area. It was also shown that the river stage was sensitive to local channel morphology and Manning roughness coefficients, as well as backwater effects. The understanding obtained in this study could be helpful to improving modeling of surface hydrology in basins with evident inundation, especially at regional or larger scales.

The lithospheric-scale 3D structural configuration of the North Alpine Foreland Basin constrained by gravity modelling and the calculation of the 3D load distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Przybycin, Anna M.; Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena; Schneider, Michael

2014-05-01

The North Alpine Foreland Basin is situated in the northern front of the European Alps and extends over parts of France, Switzerland, Germany and Austria. It formed as a wedge shaped depression since the Tertiary in consequence of the Euro - Adriatic continental collision and the Alpine orogeny. The basin is filled with clastic sediments, the Molasse, originating from erosional processes of the Alps and underlain by Mesozoic sedimentary successions and a Paleozoic crystalline crust. For our study we have focused on the German part of the basin. To investigate the deep structure, the isostatic state and the load distribution of this region we have constructed a 3D structural model of the basin and the Alpine area using available depth and thickness maps, regional scale 3D structural models as well as seismic and well data for the sedimentary part. The crust (from the top Paleozoic down to the Moho (Grad et al. 2008)) has been considered as two-parted with a lighter upper crust and a denser lower crust; the partition has been calculated following the approach of isostatic equilibrium of Pratt (1855). By implementing a seismic Lithosphere-Asthenosphere-Boundary (LAB) (Tesauro 2009) the crustal scale model has been extended to the lithospheric-scale. The layer geometry and the assigned bulk densities of this starting model have been constrained by means of 3D gravity modelling (BGI, 2012). Afterwards the 3D load distribution has been calculated using a 3D finite element method. Our results show that the North Alpine Foreland Basin is not isostatically balanced and that the configuration of the crystalline crust strongly controls the gravity field in this area. Furthermore, our results show that the basin area is influenced by varying lateral load differences down to a depth of more than 150 km what allows a first order statement of the required compensating horizontal stress needed to prevent gravitational collapse of the system. BGI (2012). The International Gravimetric Bureau. IAG Geodesist's Handbook, 2012 - Journal of Geodesy, 86(10) Springer Grad, M., Tiira, T. and ESC Working Group (2009). The Moho depth map of 1 the European Plate. Geophysical Journal International 176(1): 279-292. Tesauro, M. (2009). An integrated study of the structure and thermomechanical properties of the European lithosphere. Department of Tectonics Faculty of Earth & Life Sciences. Amsterdam, Vrije Universiteit, Dissertation

Characterizing the impact of spatiotemporal variations in stormwater infrastructure on hydrologic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jovanovic, T.; Mejia, A.; Hale, R. L.; Gironas, J. A.

2015-12-01

Urban stormwater infrastructure design has evolved in time, reflecting changes in stormwater policy and regulations, and in engineering design. This evolution makes urban basins heterogeneous socio-ecological-technological systems. We hypothesize that this heterogeneity creates unique impact trajectories in time and impact hotspots in space within and across cities. To explore this, we develop and implement a network hydro-engineering modeling framework based on high-resolution digital elevation and stormwater infrastructure data. The framework also accounts for climatic, soils, land use, and vegetation conditions in an urban basin, thus making it useful to study the impacts of stormwater infrastructure across cities. Here, to evaluate the framework, we apply it to urban basins in the metropolitan areas of Phoenix, Arizona. We use it to estimate different metrics to characterize the storm-event hydrologic response. We estimate both traditional metrics (e.g., peak flow, time to peak, and runoff volume) as well as new metrics (e.g., basin-scale dispersion mechanisms). We also use the dispersion mechanisms to assess the scaling characteristics of urban basins. Ultimately, we find that the proposed framework can be used to understand and characterize the impacts associated with stormwater infrastructure on hydrologic conditions within a basin. Additionally, we find that the scaling approach helps in synthesizing information but it requires further validation using additional urban basins.

Basin-Scale Freshwater Storage Trends from GRACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Famiglietti, J.; Kiel, B.; Frappart, F.; Syed, T. H.; Rodell, M.

2006-12-01

Four years have passed since the GRACE satellite tandem began recording variations in Earth's gravitational field. On monthly to annual timescales, variations in the gravity signal for a given location correspond primarily to changes in water storage. GRACE thus reveals, in a comprehensive, vertically-integrated manner, which areas and basins have experienced net increases or decreases in water storage. GRACE data (April 2002 to November 2005) released by the Center for Space Research at the University of Texas at Austin (RL01) is used for this study. Model-based data from GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System) is integrated into this study for comparison with the CSR GRACE data. Basin-scale GLDAS storage trends are similar to those from GRACE, except in the Arctic, likely due to the GLDAS snow module. Outside of the Arctic, correlation of GRACE and GLDAS data confirms significant basin-scale storage trends across the GRACE data collection period. Sharp storage decreases are noted in the Congo, Zambezi, Mekong, Parana, and Yukon basins, among others. Significant increases are noted in the Niger, Lena, and Volga basins, and others. Current and future work involves assessment of these trends and their causes in the context of hydroclimatological variability.

A process proof test for model concepts: Modelling the meso-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellebrand, Hugo; Müller, Christoph; Matgen, Patrick; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Savenije, Huub

In hydrological modelling the use of detailed soil data is sometimes troublesome, since often these data are hard to obtain and, if available at all, difficult to interpret and process in a way that makes them meaningful for the model at hand. Intuitively the understanding and mapping of dominant runoff processes in the soil show high potential for improving hydrological models. In this study a labour-intensive methodology to assess dominant runoff processes is simplified in such a way that detailed soil maps are no longer needed. Nonetheless, there is an ongoing debate on how to integrate this type of information in hydrological models. In this study, dominant runoff processes (DRP) are mapped for meso-scale basins using the permeability of the substratum, land use information and the slope in a GIS. During a field campaign the processes are validated and for each DRP assumptions are made concerning their water storage capacity. The latter is done by means of combining soil data obtained during the field campaign with soil data obtained from the literature. Second, several parsimoniously parameterized conceptual hydrological models are used that incorporate certain aspects of the DRP. The result of these models are compared with a benchmark model in which the soil is represented as only one lumped parameter to test the contribution of the DRP in hydrological models. The proposed methodology is tested for 15 meso-scale river basins located in Luxembourg. The main goal of this study is to investigate if integrating dominant runoff processes, which have high information content concerning soil characteristics, with hydrological models allows the improvement of simulation results models with a view to regionalization and predictions in ungauged basins. The regionalization procedure gave no clear results. The calibration procedure and the well-mixed discharge signal of the calibration basins are considered major causes for this and it made the deconvolution of discharge signals of meso-scale basins problematic. From the results it is also suggested that DRP could very well display some sort of uniqueness of place, which was not foreseen in the methods from which they were derived. Furthermore, a strong seasonal influence on model performance was observed, implying a seasonal dependence of the DRP. When comparing the performance between the DRP models and the benchmark model no real distinction was found. To improve the performance of the DRP models, which are used in this study and also for then use of conceptual models in general, there is a need for an improved identification of the mechanisms that cause the different dominant runoff processes at the meso-scale. To achieve this, more orthogonal data could be of use for a better conceptualization of the DRPs. Then, models concepts should be adapted accordingly.

Simulating hydrologic and hydraulic processes throughout the Amazon River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beighley, R.E.; Eggert, K.G.; Dunne, T.; He, Y.; Gummadi, V.; Verdin, K.L.

2009-01-01

Presented here is a model framework based on a land surface topography that can be represented with various degrees of resolution and capable of providing representative channel/floodplain hydraulic characteristics on a daily to hourly scale. The framework integrates two models: (1) a water balance model (WBM) for the vertical fluxes and stores of water in and through the canopy and soil layers based on the conservation of mass and energy, and (2) a routing model for the horizontal routing of surface and subsurface runoff and channel and floodplain waters based on kinematic and diffusion wave methodologies. The WBM is driven by satellite-derived precipitation (TRMM_3B42) and air temperature (MOD08_M3). The model's use of an irregular computational grid is intended to facilitate parallel processing for applications to continental and global scales. Results are presented for the Amazon Basin over the period Jan 2001 through Dec 2005. The model is shown to capture annual runoff totals, annual peaks, seasonal patterns, and daily fluctuations over a range of spatial scales (>1, 000 to < 4·7M km2). For the period of study, results suggest basin-wide total water storage changes in the Amazon vary by approximately + /− 5 to 10 cm, and the fractional components accounting for these changes are: root zone soil moisture (20%), subsurface water being routed laterally to channels (40%) and channel/floodplain discharge (40%). Annual variability in monthly water storage changes by + /− 2·5 cm is likely due to 0·5 to 1 month variability in the arrival of significant rainfall periods throughout the basin.

Bayesian Non-Stationary Flood Frequency Estimation at Ungauged Basins Using Climate Information and a Scaling Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, C. H.; Lall, U.

2010-12-01

Flood frequency statistical analysis most often relies on stationary assumptions, where distribution moments (e.g. mean, standard deviation) and associated flood quantiles do not change over time. In this sense, one expects that flood magnitudes and their frequency of occurrence will remain constant as observed in the historical information. However, evidence of inter-annual and decadal climate variability and anthropogenic change as well as an apparent increase in the number and magnitude of flood events across the globe have made the stationary assumption questionable. Here, we show how to estimate flood quantiles (e.g. 100-year flood) at ungauged basins without needing to consider stationarity. A statistical model based on the well known flow-area scaling law is proposed to estimate flood flows at ungauged basins. The slope and intercept scaling law coefficients are assumed time varying and a hierarchical Bayesian model is used to include climate information and reduce parameter uncertainties. Cross-validated results from 34 streamflow gauges located in a nested Basin in Brazil show that the proposed model is able to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged basins with remarkable skills compared with data based estimates using the full record. The model as developed in this work is also able to simulate sequences of flood flows considering global climate changes provided an appropriate climate index developed from the General Circulation Model is used as a predictor. The time varying flood frequency estimates can be used for pricing insurance models, and in a forecast mode for preparations for flooding, and finally, for timing infrastructure investments and location. Non-stationary 95% interval estimation for the 100-year Flood (shaded gray region) and 95% interval for the 100-year flood estimated from data (horizontal dashed and solid lines). The average distribution of the 100-year flood is shown in green in the right side.

Novel doorways and resonances in large-scale classical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franco-Villafañe, J. A.; Flores, J.; Mateos, J. L.; Méndez-Sánchez, R. A.; Novaro, O.; Seligman, T. H.

2011-05-01

We show how the concept of doorway states carries beyond its typical applications and usual concepts. The scale on which it may occur is increased to large classical wave systems. Specifically we analyze the seismic response of sedimentary basins covered by water-logged clays, a rather common situation for urban sites. A model is introduced in which the doorway state is a plane wave propagating in the interface between the sediments and the clay. This wave is produced by the coupling of a Rayleigh and an evanescent SP-wave. This in turn leads to a strong resonant response in the soft clays near the surface of the basin. Our model calculations are compared with measurements during Mexico City earthquakes, showing quite good agreement. This not only provides a transparent explanation of catastrophic resonant seismic response in certain basins but at the same time constitutes up to this date the largest-scale example of the doorway state mechanism in wave scattering. Furthermore the doorway state itself has interesting and rather unusual characteristics.

Calibration and validation of a spar-type floating offshore wind turbine model using the FAST dynamic simulation tool

DOE PAGES

Browning, J. R.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.; ...

2014-12-16

In this study, high-quality computer simulations are required when designing floating wind turbines because of the complex dynamic responses that are inherent with a high number of degrees of freedom and variable metocean conditions. In 2007, the FAST wind turbine simulation tool, developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was expanded to include capabilities that are suitable for modeling floating offshore wind turbines. In an effort to validate FAST and other offshore wind energy modeling tools, DOE funded the DeepCwind project that tested three prototype floating wind turbines at 1/50 th scalemore » in a wave basin, including a semisubmersible, a tension-leg platform, and a spar buoy. This paper describes the use of the results of the spar wave basin tests to calibrate and validate the FAST offshore floating simulation tool, and presents some initial results of simulated dynamic responses of the spar to several combinations of wind and sea states. Wave basin tests with the spar attached to a scale model of the NREL 5-megawatt reference wind turbine were performed at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands under the DeepCwind project. This project included free-decay tests, tests with steady or turbulent wind and still water (both periodic and irregular waves with no wind), and combined wind/wave tests. The resulting data from the 1/50th model was scaled using Froude scaling to full size and used to calibrate and validate a full-size simulated model in FAST. Results of the model calibration and validation include successes, subtleties, and limitations of both wave basin testing and FAST modeling capabilities.« less

Modelling hydrological processes and analysing water-related ecosystem services of Western Siberian lowland basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmalz, Britta; Kiesel, Jens; Kruse, Marion; Pfannerstill, Matthias; Sheludkov, Artyom; Khoroshavin, Vitaliy; Veshkurseva, Tatyana; Müller, Felix; Fohrer, Nicola

2015-04-01

For discussing and planning sustainable land management of river basins, stakeholders need suitable information on spatio-temporal patterns of hydrological components and ecosystem services. The ecosystem services concept, i.e., services provided by ecosystems that contribute to human welfare benefits, contributes comprehensive information for sustainable river management. This study shows an approach to use ecohydrological modelling results for quantifying and assessing water-related ecosystem services in three lowland river basins in Western Siberia, a region which is of global significance in terms of carbon sequestration, agricultural production and biodiversity preservation. Using the ecohydrological model SWAT, the three basins Pyschma (16762 km²), Vagai (3348 km²) and Loktinka (373 km²) were modelled following a gradient from the landscape units taiga, pre-taiga to forest steppe. For a correct representation of the Siberian lowland hydrology, the consideration of snow melt and retention of surface runoff as well as the implementation of a second groundwater aquifer was of great importance. Good to satisfying model performances were obtained for the extreme hydrological conditions. The simulated SWAT output variables of different hydrological processes were used as indicators for the two regulating services water flow and erosion regulation. The model results were translated into a relative ecosystem service valuation scale. The resulting ecosystem service maps show different spatial and seasonal patterns. Although the high resolution modelling results are averaged out within the aggregated relative valuation scale, seasonal differences can be depicted: during snowmelt, low relevant regulation can be determined, especially for water flow regulation, but a very high relevant regulation was calculated for the vegetation period during summer and for the winter period. The SWAT model serves as a suitable quantification method for the assessment of water-related ecosystem services on different spatial scales and ecoregions of the Western Siberian lowlands.

Towards large scale modelling of wetland water dynamics in northern basins.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedinotti, V.; Sapriza, G.; Stone, L.; Davison, B.; Pietroniro, A.; Quinton, W. L.; Spence, C.; Wheater, H. S.

2015-12-01

Understanding the hydrological behaviour of low topography, wetland-dominated sub-arctic areas is one major issue needed for the improvement of large scale hydrological models. These wet organic soils cover a large extent of Northern America and have a considerable impact on the rainfall-runoff response of a catchment. Moreover their strong interactions with the lower atmosphere and the carbon cycle make of these areas a noteworthy component of the regional climate system. In the framework of the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN), this study aims at providing a model for wetland water dynamics that can be used for large scale applications in cold regions. The modelling system has two main components : a) the simulation of surface runoff using the Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire - Surface and Hydrology (MESH) land surface model driven with several gridded atmospheric datasets and b) the routing of surface runoff using the WATROUTE channel scheme. As a preliminary study, we focus on two small representative study basins in Northern Canada : Scotty Creek in the lower Liard River valley of the Northwest Territories and Baker Creek, located a few kilometers north of Yellowknife. Both areas present characteristic landscapes dominated by a series of peat plateaus, channel fens, small lakes and bogs. Moreover, they constitute important fieldwork sites with detailed data to support our modelling study. The challenge of our new wetland model is to represent the hydrological functioning of the various landscape units encountered in those watersheds and their interactions using simple numerical formulations that can be later extended to larger basins such as the Mackenzie river basin. Using observed datasets, the performance of the model to simulate the temporal evolution of hydrological variables such as the water table depth, frost table depth and discharge is assessed.

Numerical Simulation of Potential Groundwater Contaminant Pathways from Hydraulically Fractured Oil Shale in the Nevada Basin and Range Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybarski, S.; Pohll, G.; Pohlmann, K.; Plume, R.

2014-12-01

In recent years, hydraulic fracturing (fracking) has become an increasingly popular method for extraction of oil and natural gas from tight formations. Concerns have been raised over a number of environmental risks associated with fracking, including contamination of groundwater by fracking fluids, upwelling of deep subsurface brines, and methane migration. Given the potentially long time scale for contaminant transport associated with hydraulic fracturing, numerical modeling remains the best practice for risk assessment. Oil shale in the Humboldt basin of northeastern Nevada has now become a target for hydraulic fracturing operations. Analysis of regional and shallow groundwater flow is used to assess several potential migration pathways specific to the geology and hydrogeology of this basin. The model domain in all simulations is defined by the geologic structure of the basin as determined by deep oil and gas well bores and formation outcrops. Vertical transport of gaseous methane along a density gradient is simulated in TOUGH2, while fluid transport along faults and/or hydraulic fractures and lateral flow through more permeable units adjacent to the targeted shale are modeled in FEFLOW. Sensitivity analysis considers basin, fault, and hydraulic fracturing parameters, and results highlight key processes that control fracking fluid and methane migration and time scales under which it might occur.

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 31; Global Surface Ocean Carbon Estimates in a Model Forced by MERRA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.; Casey, Nancy W.; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

2013-01-01

MERRA products were used to force an established ocean biogeochemical model to estimate surface carbon inventories and fluxes in the global oceans. The results were compared to public archives of in situ carbon data and estimates. The model exhibited skill for ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), partial pressure of ocean CO2 (pCO2) and air-sea fluxes (FCO2). The MERRA-forced model produced global mean differences of 0.02% (approximately 0.3 microns) for DIC, -0.3% (about -1.2 (micro) atm; model lower) for pCO2, and -2.3% (-0.003 mol C/sq m/y) for FCO2 compared to in situ estimates. Basin-scale distributions were significantly correlated with observations for all three variables (r=0.97, 0.76, and 0.73, P<0.05, respectively for DIC, pCO2, and FCO2). All major oceanographic basins were represented as sources to the atmosphere or sinks in agreement with in situ estimates. However, there were substantial basin-scale and local departures.

Modelling hydrologic and hydrodynamic processes in basins with large semi-arid wetlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleischmann, Ayan; Siqueira, Vinícius; Paris, Adrien; Collischonn, Walter; Paiva, Rodrigo; Pontes, Paulo; Crétaux, Jean-François; Bergé-Nguyen, Muriel; Biancamaria, Sylvain; Gosset, Marielle; Calmant, Stephane; Tanimoun, Bachir

2018-06-01

Hydrological and hydrodynamic models are core tools for simulation of large basins and complex river systems associated to wetlands. Recent studies have pointed towards the importance of online coupling strategies, representing feedbacks between floodplain inundation and vertical hydrology. Especially across semi-arid regions, soil-floodplain interactions can be strong. In this study, we included a two-way coupling scheme in a large scale hydrological-hydrodynamic model (MGB) and tested different model structures, in order to assess which processes are important to be simulated in large semi-arid wetlands and how these processes interact with water budget components. To demonstrate benefits from this coupling over a validation case, the model was applied to the Upper Niger River basin encompassing the Niger Inner Delta, a vast semi-arid wetland in the Sahel Desert. Simulation was carried out from 1999 to 2014 with daily TMPA 3B42 precipitation as forcing, using both in-situ and remotely sensed data for calibration and validation. Model outputs were in good agreement with discharge and water levels at stations both upstream and downstream of the Inner Delta (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) >0.6 for most gauges), as well as for flooded areas within the Delta region (NSE = 0.6; r = 0.85). Model estimates of annual water losses across the Delta varied between 20.1 and 30.6 km3/yr, while annual evapotranspiration ranged between 760 mm/yr and 1130 mm/yr. Evaluation of model structure indicated that representation of both floodplain channels hydrodynamics (storage, bifurcations, lateral connections) and vertical hydrological processes (floodplain water infiltration into soil column; evapotranspiration from soil and vegetation and evaporation of open water) are necessary to correctly simulate flood wave attenuation and evapotranspiration along the basin. Two-way coupled models are necessary to better understand processes in large semi-arid wetlands. Finally, such coupled hydrologic and hydrodynamic modelling proves to be an important tool for integrated evaluation of hydrological processes in such poorly gauged, large scale basins. We hope that this model application provides new ways forward for large scale model development in such systems, involving semi-arid regions and complex floodplains.

High Resolution Modelling of the Congo River's Multi-Threaded Main Stem Hydraulics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carr, A. B.; Trigg, M.; Tshimanga, R.; Neal, J. C.; Borman, D.; Smith, M. W.; Bola, G.; Kabuya, P.; Mushie, C. A.; Tschumbu, C. L.

2017-12-01

We present the results of a summer 2017 field campaign by members of the Congo River users Hydraulics and Morphology (CRuHM) project, and a subsequent reach-scale hydraulic modelling study on the Congo's main stem. Sonar bathymetry, ADCP transects, and water surface elevation data have been collected along the Congo's heavily multi-threaded middle reach, which exhibits complex in-channel hydraulic processes that are not well understood. To model the entire basin's hydrodynamics, these in-channel hydraulic processes must be parameterised since it is not computationally feasible to represent them explicitly. Furthermore, recent research suggests that relative to other large global rivers, in-channel flows on the Congo represent a relatively large proportion of total flow through the river-floodplain system. We therefore regard sufficient representation of in-channel hydraulic processes as a Congo River hydrodynamic research priority. To enable explicit representation of in-channel hydraulics, we develop a reach-scale (70 km), high resolution hydraulic model. Simulation of flow through individual channel threads provides new information on flow depths and velocities, and will be used to inform the parameterisation of a broader basin-scale hydrodynamic model. The basin-scale model will ultimately be used to investigate floodplain fluxes, flood wave attenuation, and the impact of future hydrological change scenarios on basin hydrodynamics. This presentation will focus on the methodology we use to develop a reach-scale bathymetric DEM. The bathymetry of only a small proportion of channel threads can realistically be captured, necessitating some estimation of the bathymetry of channels not surveyed. We explore different approaches to this bathymetry estimation, and the extent to which it influences hydraulic model predictions. The CRuHM project is a consortium comprising the Universities of Kinshasa, Rhodes, Dar es Salaam, Bristol, and Leeds, and is funded by Royal Society-DFID Africa Capacity Building Initiative. The project aims to strengthen institutional research capacity and advance our understanding of the hydrology, hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics of the world's second largest river system through fieldwork and development of numerical models.

The Grand Challenge of Basin-Scale Groundwater Quality Management Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fogg, G. E.

2017-12-01

The last 50+ years of agricultural, urban and industrial land and water use practices have accelerated the degradation of groundwater quality in the upper portions of many major aquifer systems upon which much of the world relies for water supply. In the deepest and most extensive systems (e.g., sedimentary basins) that typically have the largest groundwater production rates and hold fresh groundwaters on decadal to millennial time scales, most of the groundwater is not yet contaminated. Predicting the long-term future groundwater quality in such basins is a grand scientific challenge. Moreover, determining what changes in land and water use practices would avert future, irreversible degradation of these massive freshwater stores is a grand challenge both scientifically and societally. It is naïve to think that the problem can be solved by eliminating or reducing enough of the contaminant sources, for human exploitation of land and water resources will likely always result in some contamination. The key lies in both reducing the contaminant sources and more proactively managing recharge in terms of both quantity and quality, such that the net influx of contaminants is sufficiently moderate and appropriately distributed in space and time to reverse ongoing groundwater quality degradation. Just as sustainable groundwater quantity management is greatly facilitated with groundwater flow management models, sustainable groundwater quality management will require the use of groundwater quality management models. This is a new genre of hydrologic models do not yet exist, partly because of the lack of modeling tools and the supporting research to model non-reactive as well as reactive transport on large space and time scales. It is essential that the contaminant hydrogeology community, which has heretofore focused almost entirely on point-source plume-scale problems, direct it's efforts toward the development of process-based transport modeling tools and analyses capable of appropriately upscaling advection-dispersion and reactions at the basin scale (10^2 km). A road map for research and development in groundwater quality management modeling and its application toward securing future groundwater resources will be discussed.

Accounting for Rainfall Spatial Variability in Prediction of Flash Floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saharia, M.; Kirstetter, P. E.; Gourley, J. J.; Hong, Y.; Vergara, H. J.

2016-12-01

Flash floods are a particularly damaging natural hazard worldwide in terms of both fatalities and property damage. In the United States, the lack of a comprehensive database that catalogues information related to flash flood timing, location, causative rainfall, and basin geomorphology has hindered broad characterization studies. First a representative and long archive of more than 20,000 flooding events during 2002-2011 is used to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of flash floods. We also derive large number of spatially distributed geomorphological and climatological parameters such as basin area, mean annual precipitation, basin slope etc. to identify static basin characteristics that influence flood response. For the same period, the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) has produced a decadal archive of Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) radar-only precipitation rates at 1-km spatial resolution with 5-min temporal resolution. This provides an unprecedented opportunity to analyze the impact of event-level precipitation variability on flooding using a big data approach. To analyze the impact of sub-basin scale rainfall spatial variability on flooding, certain indices such as the first and second scaled moment of rainfall, horizontal gap, vertical gap etc. are computed from the MRMS dataset. Finally, flooding characteristics such as rise time, lag time, and peak discharge are linked to derived geomorphologic, climatologic, and rainfall indices to identify basin characteristics that drive flash floods. Next the model is used to predict flash flooding characteristics all over the continental U.S., specifically over regions poorly covered by hydrological observations. So far studies involving rainfall variability indices have only been performed on a case study basis, and a large scale approach is expected to provide a deeper insight into how sub-basin scale precipitation variability affects flooding. Finally, these findings are validated using the National Weather Service storm reports and a historical flood fatalities database. This analysis framework will serve as a baseline for evaluating distributed hydrologic model simulations such as the Flooded Locations And Simulated Hydrographs Project (FLASH) (http://flash.ou.edu).

Are calanco landforms similar to river basins?

PubMed

Caraballo-Arias, N A; Ferro, V

2017-12-15

In the past badlands have been often considered as ideal field laboratories for studying landscape evolution because of their geometrical similarity to larger fluvial systems. For a given hydrological process, no scientific proof exists that badlands can be considered a model of river basin prototypes. In this paper the measurements carried out on 45 Sicilian calanchi, a type of badlands that appears as a small-scale hydrographic unit, are used to establish their morphological similarity with river systems whose data are available in the literature. At first the geomorphological similarity is studied by identifying the dimensionless groups, which can assume the same value or a scaled one in a fixed ratio, representing drainage basin shape, stream network and relief properties. Then, for each property, the dimensionless groups are calculated for the investigated calanchi and the river basins and their corresponding scale ratio is evaluated. The applicability of Hack's, Horton's and Melton's laws for establishing similarity criteria is also tested. The developed analysis allows to conclude that a quantitative morphological similarity between calanco landforms and river basins can be established using commonly applied dimensionless groups. In particular, the analysis showed that i) calanchi and river basins have a geometrically similar shape respect to the parameters Rf and Re with a scale factor close to 1, ii) calanchi and river basins are similar respect to the bifurcation and length ratios (λ=1), iii) for the investigated calanchi the Melton number assumes values less than that (0.694) corresponding to the river case and a scale ratio ranging from 0.52 and 0.78 can be used, iv) calanchi and river basins have similar mean relief ratio values (λ=1.13) and v) calanchi present active geomorphic processes and therefore fall in a more juvenile stage with respect to river basins. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Novel patch modelling method for efficient simulation and prediction uncertainty analysis of multi-scale groundwater flow and transport processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sreekanth, J.; Moore, Catherine

2018-04-01

The application of global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis techniques to groundwater models of deep sedimentary basins are typically challenged by large computational burdens combined with associated numerical stability issues. The highly parameterized approaches required for exploring the predictive uncertainty associated with the heterogeneous hydraulic characteristics of multiple aquifers and aquitards in these sedimentary basins exacerbate these issues. A novel Patch Modelling Methodology is proposed for improving the computational feasibility of stochastic modelling analysis of large-scale and complex groundwater models. The method incorporates a nested groundwater modelling framework that enables efficient simulation of groundwater flow and transport across multiple spatial and temporal scales. The method also allows different processes to be simulated within different model scales. Existing nested model methodologies are extended by employing 'joining predictions' for extrapolating prediction-salient information from one model scale to the next. This establishes a feedback mechanism supporting the transfer of information from child models to parent models as well as parent models to child models in a computationally efficient manner. This feedback mechanism is simple and flexible and ensures that while the salient small scale features influencing larger scale prediction are transferred back to the larger scale, this does not require the live coupling of models. This method allows the modelling of multiple groundwater flow and transport processes using separate groundwater models that are built for the appropriate spatial and temporal scales, within a stochastic framework, while also removing the computational burden associated with live model coupling. The utility of the method is demonstrated by application to an actual large scale aquifer injection scheme in Australia.

Soil erosion and sediment yield and their relationships with vegetation cover in upper stream of the Yellow River.

PubMed

Ouyang, Wei; Hao, Fanghua; Skidmore, Andrew K; Toxopeus, A G

2010-12-15

Soil erosion is a significant concern when considering regional environmental protection, especially in the Yellow River Basin in China. This study evaluated the temporal-spatial interaction of land cover status with soil erosion characteristics in the Longliu Catchment of China, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. SWAT is a physical hydrological model which uses the RUSLE equation as a sediment algorithm. Considering the spatial and temporal scale of the relationship between soil erosion and sediment yield, simulations were undertaken at monthly and annual temporal scales and basin and sub-basin spatial scales. The corresponding temporal and spatial Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) information was summarized from MODIS data, which can integrate regional land cover and climatic features. The SWAT simulation revealed that the annual soil erosion and sediment yield showed similar spatial distribution patterns, but the monthly variation fluctuated significantly. The monthly basin soil erosion varied from almost no erosion load to 3.92 t/ha and the maximum monthly sediment yield was 47,540 tones. The inter-annual simulation focused on the spatial difference and relationship with the corresponding vegetation NDVI value for every sub-basin. It is concluded that, for this continental monsoon climate basin, the higher NDVI vegetation zones prevented sediment transport, but at the same time they also contributed considerable soil erosion. The monthly basin soil erosion and sediment yield both correlated with NDVI, and the determination coefficients of their exponential correlation model were 0.446 and 0.426, respectively. The relationships between soil erosion and sediment yield with vegetation NDVI indicated that the vegetation status has a significant impact on sediment formation and transport. The findings can be used to develop soil erosion conservation programs for the study area. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fate and Transport of Bacteriophage (MS2 and PRD1) During Field-Scale Infiltration at a Research Site in Los Angeles County, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anders, R.; Chrysikopoulos, C. V.

2003-12-01

As the use of tertiary-treated municipal wastewater (recycled water) for replenishment purposes continues to increase, provisions are being established to protect ground-water resources by ensuring that adequate soil-retention time and distance requirements are met for pathogen removal. However, many of the factors controlling virus fate and transport (e.g. hydraulic conditions, ground-water chemistry, and sediment mineralogy) are interrelated and poorly understood. Therefore, conducting field-scale experiments using surrogates for human enteric viruses at an actual recharge basin that uses recycled water may represent the best approach for establishing adequate setback requirements. Three field-scale infiltration experiments were conducted at such a basin using bacterial viruses (bacteriophage) MS2 and PRD1 as surrogates for human viruses, bromide as a conservative tracer, and recycled water. The specific research site consists of a test basin constructed adjacent to a large recharge facility (spreading grounds) located in the Montebello Forebay of Los Angeles County, California. The soil beneath the test basin is predominantly medium to coarse, moderately sorted, grayish-brown sand. The first experiment was conducted over a 2-day period to determine the feasibility of conducting field-scale infiltration experiments using recycled water seeded with high concentrations of bacteriophage and bromide as tracers. Based on the results of the first experiment, a second experiment was completed when similar hydraulic conditions existed at the test basin. The third infiltration experiment was conducted to confirm the results obtained from the second experiment. Data were obtained for samples collected during the second and third field-scale infiltration experiments from the test basin itself and from depths of 0.3, 0.6, 1.0, 1.5, 3.0, and 7.6 m below the bottom of the test basin. These field-scale tracer experiments indicate bacteriophage are attenuated by removal and (or) inactivation during subsurface transport. To simulate the transport and fate of viruses during infiltration, a nonlinear least-squares regression program was used to fit a one-dimensional virus transport model to the experimental data. The model simulates virus transport in homogeneous, saturated porous media with first-order adsorption (or filtration) and inactivation. Furthermore, the model obtains a semi-analytical solution for the special case of a broad pulse and time-dependent source concentration using the principle of superposition. The fitted parameters include the clogging and declogging rate constants and the inactivation constants of suspended and adsorbed viruses. Preliminary results show a reasonable match of the first arrival of bacteriophage and bromide.

Influence of snowpack and melt energy heterogeneity on snow cover depletion and snowmelt runoff simulation in a cold mountain environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeBeer, Chris M.; Pomeroy, John W.

2017-10-01

The spatial heterogeneity of mountain snow cover and ablation is important in controlling patterns of snow cover depletion (SCD), meltwater production, and runoff, yet is not well-represented in most large-scale hydrological models and land surface schemes. Analyses were conducted in this study to examine the influence of various representations of snow cover and melt energy heterogeneity on both simulated SCD and stream discharge from a small alpine basin in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Simulations were performed using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM), where point-scale snowmelt computations were made using a snowpack energy balance formulation and applied to spatial frequency distributions of snow water equivalent (SWE) on individual slope-, aspect-, and landcover-based hydrological response units (HRUs) in the basin. Hydrological routines were added to represent the vertical and lateral transfers of water through the basin and channel system. From previous studies it is understood that the heterogeneity of late winter SWE is a primary control on patterns of SCD. The analyses here showed that spatial variation in applied melt energy, mainly due to differences in net radiation, has an important influence on SCD at multiple scales and basin discharge, and cannot be neglected without serious error in the prediction of these variables. A single basin SWE distribution using the basin-wide mean SWE (SWE ‾) and coefficient of variation (CV; standard deviation/mean) was found to represent the fine-scale spatial heterogeneity of SWE sufficiently well. Simulations that accounted for differences in (SWE ‾) among HRUs but neglected the sub-HRU heterogeneity of SWE were found to yield similar discharge results as simulations that included this heterogeneity, while SCD was poorly represented, even at the basin level. Finally, applying point-scale snowmelt computations based on a single SWE depth for each HRU (thereby neglecting spatial differences in internal snowpack energetics over the distributions) was found to yield similar SCD and discharge results as simulations that resolved internal energy differences. Spatial/internal snowpack melt energy effects are more pronounced at times earlier in spring before the main period of snowmelt and SCD, as shown in previously published work. The paper discusses the importance of these findings as they apply to the warranted complexity of snowmelt process simulation in cold mountain environments, and shows how the end-of-winter SWE distribution represents an effective means of resolving snow cover heterogeneity at multiple scales for modelling, even in steep and complex terrain.

An integrated water system model considering hydrological and biogeochemical processes at basin scale: model construction and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y. Y.; Shao, Q. X.; Ye, A. Z.; Xing, H. T.

2014-08-01

Integrated water system modeling is a reasonable approach to provide scientific understanding and possible solutions to tackle the severe water crisis faced over the world and to promote the implementation of integrated river basin management. Such a modeling practice becomes more feasible nowadays due to better computing facilities and available data sources. In this study, the process-oriented water system model (HEXM) is developed by integrating multiple water related processes including hydrology, biogeochemistry, environment and ecology, as well as the interference of human activities. The model was tested in the Shaying River Catchment, the largest, highly regulated and heavily polluted tributary of Huai River Basin in China. The results show that: HEXM is well integrated with good performance on the key water related components in the complex catchments. The simulated daily runoff series at all the regulated and less-regulated stations matches observations, especially for the high and low flow events. The average values of correlation coefficient and coefficient of efficiency are 0.81 and 0.63, respectively. The dynamics of observed daily ammonia-nitrogen (NH4N) concentration, as an important index to assess water environmental quality in China, are well captured with average correlation coefficient of 0.66. Furthermore, the spatial patterns of nonpoint source pollutant load and grain yield are also simulated properly, and the outputs have good agreements with the statistics at city scale. Our model shows clear superior performance in both calibration and validation in comparison with the widely used SWAT model. This model is expected to give a strong reference for water system modeling in complex basins, and provide the scientific foundation for the implementation of integrated river basin management all over the world as well as the technical guide for the reasonable regulation of dams and sluices and environmental improvement in river basins.

Application of The Rainfall-runoff Model Topkapi For The Entire Basin of The Po River As Part of The European Project Effs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todini, E.; Bartholmes, J.

The project EFFS (European Flood Forecasting System) aims at developing a flood forecasting system for the major river basins all over Europe. To extend the forecast- ing and thus the warning time in a significant way (up to 10 days) meteorological forecasting data from the ECMWF will be used as input to hydrological models. For this purpose it is fundamental to have a reliable rainfall-runoff model. For the river Po basin we chose the TOPKAPI model (Ciarapica, Todini 1998). TOPKAPI is a physi- cally based rainfall-runoff model that maintains its physical significance passing from hillslope to large basin scale. The aim of the distributed version is to reproduce the spatial variability and to lead to a better understanding of scaling effects on meteo- rological data used as well as of physical phenomena and parameters. By now the TOPKAPI model has been applied successfully to basins of smaller and medium size (up to 8000 km2). The present work also proves that TOPKAPI is a valuable flood forecasting tool for larger basins such as the Po river. An advantage of the TOPKAPI model is its physical basis. It doesn't need a "real" calibration in the common sense of the expression. The calibration work that has to be done is due to the unavoidable averaging and approximation in the input data representing various phenomena. This reduces the calibration work as well as the length of data required. The model was implemented on the Po river at spatial steps of 1km and time steps of 1 hour using available data during the year 1994. After the calibration phase, mesoscale forecasts (from ECMWF) as well as forecasts of LAM models (DWD,DMI) will be used as input to the Po river models and their behaviour will be studied as a function of the prediction quality and of the coarseness of the spatial discretisation.

An integrated modeling approach for estimating the water quality benefits of conservation practices at the river basin scale

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The USDA initiated the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) to quantify the environmental benefits of conservation practices at regional and national scales. For this assessment, a sampling and modeling approach is used. This paper provides a technical overview of the modeling approach use...

Comparative Synthesis of Current and Future Urban Stormwater Runoff Scenarios in Tampa Bay Basin under a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2016-12-01

Changes in climatic regimes and basin characteristics such as imperviousness, roughness and land use types would lead to potential changes in stormwater budget. In this study we quantified reference sensitivities of stormwater runoff to the potential climatic and land use/cover changes by developing a large-scale, mechanistic rainfall-runoff model for the Tampa Bay Basin of Florida using the US EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Key processes of urban hydrology, its dynamic interactions with groundwater and sea level, hydro-climatic variables and land use/cover characteristics were incorporated within the model. The model was calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data. We then computed the historical (1970-2000) and potential 2050s stormwater budgets for the Tampa Bay Basin. Climatic scenario projected by the global climate models (GCMs) and the regional climate models (RCMs), along with sea level and land use/cover projections, were utilized to anticipate the future stormwater budget. The comparative assessment of current and future stormwater scenario will aid a proactive management of stormwater runoff under a changing climate in the Tampa Bay Basin and similar urban basins around the world.

Uncertainty prediction for PUB

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendiondo, E. M.; Tucci, C. M.; Clarke, R. T.; Castro, N. M.; Goldenfum, J. A.; Chevallier, P.

2003-04-01

IAHS’ initiative of Prediction in Ungaged Basins (PUB) attempts to integrate monitoring needs and uncertainty prediction for river basins. This paper outlines alternative ways of uncertainty prediction which could be linked with new blueprints for PUB, thereby showing how equifinality-based models should be grasped using practical strategies of gauging like the Nested Catchment Experiment (NCE). Uncertainty prediction is discussed from observations of Potiribu Project, which is a NCE layout at representative basins of a suptropical biome of 300,000 km2 in South America. Uncertainty prediction is assessed at the microscale (1 m2 plots), at the hillslope (0,125 km2) and at the mesoscale (0,125 - 560 km2). At the microscale, uncertainty-based models are constrained by temporal variations of state variables with changing likelihood surfaces of experiments using Green-Ampt model. Two new blueprints emerged from this NCE for PUB: (1) the Scale Transferability Scheme (STS) at the hillslope scale and the Integrating Process Hypothesis (IPH) at the mesoscale. The STS integrates a multi-dimensional scaling with similarity thresholds, as a generalization of the Representative Elementary Area (REA), using spatial correlation from point (distributed) to area (lumped) process. In this way, STS addresses uncertainty-bounds of model parameters, into an upscaling process at the hillslope. In the other hand, the IPH approach regionalizes synthetic hydrographs, thereby interpreting the uncertainty bounds of streamflow variables. Multiscale evidences from Potiribu NCE layout show novel pathways of uncertainty prediction under a PUB perspective in representative basins of world biomes.

The Saskatchewan River Basin - a large scale observatory for water security research (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheater, H. S.

2013-12-01

The 336,000 km2 Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Western Canada illustrates many of the issues of Water Security faced world-wide. It poses globally-important science challenges due to the diversity in its hydro-climate and ecological zones. With one of the world's more extreme climates, it embodies environments of global significance, including the Rocky Mountains (source of the major rivers in Western Canada), the Boreal Forest (representing 30% of Canada's land area) and the Prairies (home to 80% of Canada's agriculture). Management concerns include: provision of water resources to more than three million inhabitants, including indigenous communities; balancing competing needs for water between different uses, such as urban centres, industry, agriculture, hydropower and environmental flows; issues of water allocation between upstream and downstream users in the three prairie provinces; managing the risks of flood and droughts; and assessing water quality impacts of discharges from major cities and intensive agricultural production. Superimposed on these issues is the need to understand and manage uncertain water futures, including effects of economic growth and environmental change, in a highly fragmented water governance environment. Key science questions focus on understanding and predicting the effects of land and water management and environmental change on water quantity and quality. To address the science challenges, observational data are necessary across multiple scales. This requires focussed research at intensively monitored sites and small watersheds to improve process understanding and fine-scale models. To understand large-scale effects on river flows and quality, land-atmosphere feedbacks, and regional climate, integrated monitoring, modelling and analysis is needed at large basin scale. And to support water management, new tools are needed for operational management and scenario-based planning that can be implemented across multiple scales and multiple jurisdictions. The SaskRB has therefore been developed as a large scale observatory, now a Regional Hydroclimate Project of the World Climate Research Programme's GEWEX project, and is available to contribute to the emerging North American Water Program. State-of-the-art hydro-ecological experimental sites have been developed for the key biomes, and a river and lake biogeochemical research facility, focussed on impacts of nutrients and exotic chemicals. Data are integrated at SaskRB scale to support the development of improved large scale climate and hydrological modelling products, the development of DSS systems for local, provincial and basin-scale management, and the development of related social science research, engaging stakeholders in the research and exploring their values and priorities for water security. The observatory provides multiple scales of observation and modelling required to develop: a) new climate, hydrological and ecological science and modelling tools to address environmental change in key environments, and their integrated effects and feedbacks at large catchment scale, b) new tools needed to support river basin management under uncertainty, including anthropogenic controls on land and water management and c) the place-based focus for the development of new transdisciplinary science.

Regional transport modelling for nitrate trend assessment and forecasting in a chalk aquifer.

PubMed

Orban, Philippe; Brouyère, Serge; Batlle-Aguilar, Jordi; Couturier, Julie; Goderniaux, Pascal; Leroy, Mathieu; Maloszewski, Piotr; Dassargues, Alain

2010-10-21

Regional degradation of groundwater resources by nitrate has become one of the main challenges for water managers worldwide. Regulations have been defined to reverse observed nitrate trends in groundwater bodies, such as the Water Framework Directive and the Groundwater Daughter Directive in the European Union. In such a context, one of the main challenges remains to develop efficient approaches for groundwater quality assessment at regional scale, including quantitative numerical modelling, as a decision support for groundwater management. A new approach combining the use of environmental tracers and the innovative 'Hybrid Finite Element Mixing Cell' (HFEMC) modelling technique is developed to study and forecast the groundwater quality at the regional scale, with an application to a regional chalk aquifer in the Geer basin in Belgium. Tritium data and nitrate time series are used to produce a conceptual model for regional groundwater flow and contaminant transport in the combined unsaturated and saturated zones of the chalk aquifer. This shows that the spatial distribution of the contamination in the Geer basin is essentially linked to the hydrodynamic conditions prevailing in the basin, more precisely to groundwater age and mixing and not to the spatial patterns of land use or local hydrodispersive processes. A three-dimensional regional scale groundwater flow and solute transport model is developed. It is able to reproduce the spatial patterns of tritium and nitrate and the observed nitrate trends in the chalk aquifer and it is used to predict the evolution of nitrate concentrations in the basin. The modelling application shows that the global inertia of groundwater quality is strong in the basin and trend reversal is not expected to occur before the 2015 deadline fixed by the European Water Framework Directive. The expected time required for trend reversal ranges between 5 and more than 50 years, depending on the location in the basin and the expected reduction in nitrate application. To reach a good chemical status, nitrate concentrations in the infiltrating water should be reduced as soon as possible below 50mg/l; however, even in that case, more than 50 years is needed to fully reverse upward trends. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global analysis of approaches for deriving total water storage changes from GRACE satellites and implications for groundwater storage change estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, D.; Scanlon, B. R.; Longuevergne, L.; Chen, X.

2015-12-01

Increasing interest in use of GRACE satellites and a variety of new products to monitor changes in total water storage (TWS) underscores the need to assess the reliability of output from different products. The objective of this study was to assess skills and uncertainties of different approaches for processing GRACE data to restore signal losses caused by spatial filtering based on analysis of 1°×1° grid scale data and basin scale data in 60 river basins globally. Results indicate that scaling factors from six land surface models (LSMs), including four models from GLDAS-1 (Noah 2.7, Mosaic, VIC, and CLM 2.0), CLM 4.0, and WGHM, are similar over most humid, sub-humid, and high-latitude regions but can differ by up to 100% over arid and semi-arid basins and areas with intensive irrigation. Large differences in TWS anomalies from three processing approaches (scaling factor, additive, and multiplicative corrections) were found in arid and semi-arid regions, areas with intensive irrigation, and relatively small basins (e.g., ≤ 200,000 km2). Furthermore, TWS anomaly products from gridded data with CLM4.0 scaling factors and the additive correction approach more closely agree with WGHM output than the multiplicative correction approach. Estimation of groundwater storage changes using GRACE satellites requires caution in selecting an appropriate approach for restoring TWS changes. A priori ground-based data used in forward modeling can provide a powerful tool for explaining the distribution of signal gains or losses caused by low-pass filtering in specific regions of interest and should be very useful for more reliable estimation of groundwater storage changes using GRACE satellites.

Modeling surface water dynamics in the Amazon Basin using MOSART-Inundation v1.0: Impacts of geomorphological parameters and river flow representation

DOE PAGES

Luo, Xiangyu; Li, Hong -Yi; Leung, L. Ruby; ...

2017-03-23

In the Amazon Basin, floodplain inundation is a key component of surface water dynamics and plays an important role in water, energy and carbon cycles. The Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART) was extended with a macroscale inundation scheme for representing floodplain inundation. The extended model, named MOSART-Inundation, was used to simulate surface hydrology of the entire Amazon Basin. Previous hydrologic modeling studies in the Amazon Basin identified and addressed a few challenges in simulating surface hydrology of this basin, including uncertainties of floodplain topography and channel geometry, and the representation of river flow in reaches with mild slopes.more » This study further addressed four aspects of these challenges. First, the spatial variability of vegetation-caused biases embedded in the HydroSHEDS digital elevation model (DEM) data was explicitly addressed. A vegetation height map of about 1 km resolution and a land cover dataset of about 90 m resolution were used in a DEM correction procedure that resulted in an average elevation reduction of 13.2 m for the entire basin and led to evident changes in the floodplain topography. Second, basin-wide empirical formulae for channel cross-sectional dimensions were refined for various subregions to improve the representation of spatial variability in channel geometry. Third, the channel Manning roughness coefficient was allowed to vary with the channel depth, as the effect of riverbed resistance on river flow generally declines with increasing river size. Lastly, backwater effects were accounted for to better represent river flow in mild-slope reaches. The model was evaluated against in situ streamflow records and remotely sensed Envisat altimetry data and Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites (GIEMS) inundation data. In a sensitivity study, seven simulations were compared to evaluate the impacts of the five modeling aspects addressed in this study. The comparisons showed that representing floodplain inundation could significantly improve the simulated streamflow and river stages. Refining floodplain topography, channel geometry and Manning roughness coefficients, as well as accounting for backwater effects had notable impacts on the simulated surface water dynamics in the Amazon Basin. As a result, the understanding obtained in this study could be helpful in improving modeling of surface hydrology in basins with evident inundation, especially at regional to continental scales.« less

Modeling surface water dynamics in the Amazon Basin using MOSART-Inundation v1.0: Impacts of geomorphological parameters and river flow representation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Xiangyu; Li, Hong -Yi; Leung, L. Ruby

In the Amazon Basin, floodplain inundation is a key component of surface water dynamics and plays an important role in water, energy and carbon cycles. The Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART) was extended with a macroscale inundation scheme for representing floodplain inundation. The extended model, named MOSART-Inundation, was used to simulate surface hydrology of the entire Amazon Basin. Previous hydrologic modeling studies in the Amazon Basin identified and addressed a few challenges in simulating surface hydrology of this basin, including uncertainties of floodplain topography and channel geometry, and the representation of river flow in reaches with mild slopes.more » This study further addressed four aspects of these challenges. First, the spatial variability of vegetation-caused biases embedded in the HydroSHEDS digital elevation model (DEM) data was explicitly addressed. A vegetation height map of about 1 km resolution and a land cover dataset of about 90 m resolution were used in a DEM correction procedure that resulted in an average elevation reduction of 13.2 m for the entire basin and led to evident changes in the floodplain topography. Second, basin-wide empirical formulae for channel cross-sectional dimensions were refined for various subregions to improve the representation of spatial variability in channel geometry. Third, the channel Manning roughness coefficient was allowed to vary with the channel depth, as the effect of riverbed resistance on river flow generally declines with increasing river size. Lastly, backwater effects were accounted for to better represent river flow in mild-slope reaches. The model was evaluated against in situ streamflow records and remotely sensed Envisat altimetry data and Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites (GIEMS) inundation data. In a sensitivity study, seven simulations were compared to evaluate the impacts of the five modeling aspects addressed in this study. The comparisons showed that representing floodplain inundation could significantly improve the simulated streamflow and river stages. Refining floodplain topography, channel geometry and Manning roughness coefficients, as well as accounting for backwater effects had notable impacts on the simulated surface water dynamics in the Amazon Basin. As a result, the understanding obtained in this study could be helpful in improving modeling of surface hydrology in basins with evident inundation, especially at regional to continental scales.« less

U.S. GODAE: Global Ocean Prediction With the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM)

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-01

REPORT DATE (DD-MM- YYYY) 12-08-2009 2. REPORT TYPE Journal Article 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE U.S. GODAE: Global ...the lerformance and application of eddy-resolving, real-time global - and basin-scale ocean prediction systems using the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean...prediction system outputs. In addnion to providing real-time, eddy-resolving global - and basin-scale ocean prediction systems for the US Navy and NOAA, this

Crustal structure in the Falcón Basin area, northwestern Venezuela, from seismic and gravimetric evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bezada, Maximiliano J.; Schmitz, Michael; Jácome, María Inés; Rodríguez, Josmat; Audemard, Franck; Izarra, Carlos; The Bolivar Active Seismic Working Group

2008-05-01

The Falcón Basin in northwestern Venezuela has a complex geological history driven by the interactions between the South American and Caribbean plates. Igneous intrusive bodies that outcrop along the axis of the basin have been associated with crustal thinning, and gravity modeling has shown evidence for a significantly thinned crust beneath the basin. In this study, crustal scale seismic refraction/wide-angle reflection data derived from onshore/offshore active seismic experiments are interpreted and forward-modeled to generate a P-wave velocity model for a ˜450 km long profile. The final model shows thinning of the crust beneath the Falcón Basin where depth to Moho decreases to 27 km from a value of 40 km about 100 km to the south. A deeper reflected phase on the offshore section is interpreted to be derived from the downgoing Caribbean slab. Velocity values were converted to density and the resulting gravimetric response was shown to be consistent with the regional gravity anomaly. The crustal thinning proposed here supports a rift origin for the Falcón Basin.

Trend analysis of watershed-scale precipitation over Northern California by means of dynamically-downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections.

PubMed

Ishida, K; Gorguner, M; Ercan, A; Trinh, T; Kavvas, M L

2017-08-15

The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9km grid resolution and hourly temporal resolution during a 94-year period (2006-2100). The biases in the model simulations were corrected, and basin-average precipitation over the eight study watersheds was calculated from the dynamically downscaled precipitation data. Based on the dynamically downscaled basin-average precipitation, trends in annual depth and annual peaks of basin-average precipitation during the 21st century were analyzed over the eight study watersheds. The analyses in this study indicate that there may be differences between trends of annual depths and annual peaks of watershed-scale precipitation during the 21st century. Furthermore, trends in watershed-scale precipitation under future climate conditions may be different for different watersheds depending on their location and topography even if they are in the same region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Topographic Evolution and Climate Aridification during Continental Collision: Insights from Computer Simulations

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

How do the feedbacks between tectonics, sediment transport and climate work to shape the topographic evolution of the Earth? This question has been widely addressed via numerical models constrained with thermochronological and geomorphological data at scales ranging from local to orogenic. Here we present a novel numerical model that aims at reproducing the interaction between these processes at the continental scale. For this purpose, we combine in a single computer program: 1) a thin-sheet viscous model of continental deformation; 2) a stream-power surface-transport approach; 3) flexural isostasy allowing for the formation of large sedimentary foreland basins; and 4) an orographic precipitation model that reproduces basic climatic effects such as continentality and rain shadow. We quantify the feedbacks between these processes in a synthetic scenario inspired by the India-Asia collision and the growth of the Tibetan Plateau. We identify a feedback between erosion and crustal thickening leading locally to a <50% increase in deformation rates in places where orographic precipitation is concentrated. This climatically-enhanced deformation takes place preferentially at the upwind flank of the growing plateau, specially at the corners of the indenter (syntaxes). We hypothesize that this may provide clues for better understanding the mechanisms underlying the intriguing tectonic aneurisms documented in the Himalayas. At the continental scale, however, the overall distribution of topographic basins and ranges seems insensitive to climatic factors, despite these do have important, sometimes counterintuitive effects on the amount of sediments trapped within the continent. The dry climatic conditions that naturally develop in the interior of the continent, for example, trigger large intra-continental sediment trapping at basins similar to the Tarim Basin because they determine its endorheic/exorheic drainage. These complex climatic-drainage-tectonic interactions make the development of steady-state topography at the continental scale unlikely. PMID:26244662

Topographic Evolution and Climate Aridification during Continental Collision: Insights from Computer Simulations.

PubMed

Garcia-Castellanos, Daniel; Jiménez-Munt, Ivone

2015-01-01

How do the feedbacks between tectonics, sediment transport and climate work to shape the topographic evolution of the Earth? This question has been widely addressed via numerical models constrained with thermochronological and geomorphological data at scales ranging from local to orogenic. Here we present a novel numerical model that aims at reproducing the interaction between these processes at the continental scale. For this purpose, we combine in a single computer program: 1) a thin-sheet viscous model of continental deformation; 2) a stream-power surface-transport approach; 3) flexural isostasy allowing for the formation of large sedimentary foreland basins; and 4) an orographic precipitation model that reproduces basic climatic effects such as continentality and rain shadow. We quantify the feedbacks between these processes in a synthetic scenario inspired by the India-Asia collision and the growth of the Tibetan Plateau. We identify a feedback between erosion and crustal thickening leading locally to a <50% increase in deformation rates in places where orographic precipitation is concentrated. This climatically-enhanced deformation takes place preferentially at the upwind flank of the growing plateau, specially at the corners of the indenter (syntaxes). We hypothesize that this may provide clues for better understanding the mechanisms underlying the intriguing tectonic aneurisms documented in the Himalayas. At the continental scale, however, the overall distribution of topographic basins and ranges seems insensitive to climatic factors, despite these do have important, sometimes counterintuitive effects on the amount of sediments trapped within the continent. The dry climatic conditions that naturally develop in the interior of the continent, for example, trigger large intra-continental sediment trapping at basins similar to the Tarim Basin because they determine its endorheic/exorheic drainage. These complex climatic-drainage-tectonic interactions make the development of steady-state topography at the continental scale unlikely.

Constraining the physical properties of Titan's empty lake basins using nadir and off-nadir Cassini RADAR backscatter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaelides, R. J.; Hayes, A. G.; Mastrogiuseppe, M.; Zebker, H. A.; Farr, T. G.; Malaska, M. J.; Poggiali, V.; Mullen, J. P.

2016-05-01

We use repeat synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations and complementary altimetry passes acquired by the Cassini spacecraft to study the scattering properties of Titan's empty lake basins. The best-fit coefficients from fitting SAR data to a quasi-specular plus diffuse backscatter model suggest that the bright basin floors have a higher dielectric constant, but similar facet-scale rms surface facet slopes, to surrounding terrain. Waveform analysis of altimetry returns reveals that nadir backscatter returns from basin floors are greater than nadir backscatter returns from basin surroundings and have narrower pulse widths. This suggests that floor deposits are structurally distinct from their surroundings, consistent with the interpretation that some of these basins may be filled with evaporitic and/or sedimentary deposits. Basin floor deposits also express a larger diffuse component to their backscatter, which is likely due to variations in subsurface structure or an increase in roughness at the wavelength scale (Hayes, A.G. et al. [2008]. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, 9). We generate a high-resolution altimetry radargram of the T30 altimetry pass over an empty lake basin, with which we place geometric constraints on the basin's slopes, rim heights, and depth. Finally, the importance of these backscatter observations and geometric measurements for basin formation mechanisms is briefly discussed.

Regional modeling of groundwater flow and arsenic transport in the Bengal Basin: challenges of scale and complexity (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michael, H. A.; Voss, C. I.

2009-12-01

Widespread arsenic poisoning is occurring in large areas of Bangladesh and West Bengal, India due to high arsenic levels in shallow groundwater, which is the primary source of irrigation and drinking water in the region. The high-arsenic groundwater exists in aquifers of the Bengal Basin, a huge sedimentary system approximately 500km x 500km wide and greater than 15km deep in places. Deeper groundwater (>150m) is nearly universally low in arsenic and a potential source of safe drinking water, but evaluation of its sustainability requires understanding of the entire, interconnected regional aquifer system. Numerical modeling of flow and arsenic transport in the basin introduces problems of scale: challenges in representing the system in enough detail to produce meaningful simulations and answer relevant questions while maintaining enough simplicity to understand controls on processes and operating within computational constraints. A regional groundwater flow and transport model of the Bengal Basin was constructed to assess the large-scale functioning of the deep groundwater flow system, the vulnerability of deep groundwater to pumping-induced migration from above, and the effect of chemical properties of sediments (sorption) on sustainability. The primary challenges include the very large spatial scale of the system, dynamic monsoonal hydrology (small temporal scale fluctuations), complex sedimentary architecture (small spatial scale heterogeneity), and a lack of reliable hydrologic and geologic data. The approach was simple. Detailed inputs were reduced to only those that affect the functioning of the deep flow system. Available data were used to estimate upscaled parameter values. Nested small-scale simulations were performed to determine the effects of the simplifications, which include treatment of the top boundary condition and transience, effects of small-scale heterogeneity, and effects of individual pumping wells. Simulation of arsenic transport at the large scale adds another element of complexity. Minimization of numerical oscillation and mass balance errors required experimentation with solvers and discretization. In the face of relatively few data in a very large-scale model, sensitivity analyses were essential. The scale of the system limits evaluation of localized behavior, but results clearly identified the primary controls on the system and effects of various pumping scenarios and sorptive properties. It was shown that limiting deep pumping to domestic supply may result in sustainable arsenic-safe water for 90% of the arsenic-affected region over a 1000 year timescale, and that sorption of arsenic onto deep, oxidized Pleistocene sediments may increase the breakthrough time in unsustainable zones by more than an order of magnitude. Thus, both hydraulic and chemical defenses indicate the potential for sustainable, managed use of deep, safe groundwater resources in the Bengal Basin.

Madden-Julian Oscillation: Western Pacific and Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, Z.; Raymond, D. J.

2016-12-01

The MJO has been and still remains a "holy grail" of today's atmospheric science research. Why does the MJO propagate eastward? What makes it unstable? What is the scaling for the MJO, i.e. why does it prefer long wavelengths or planetary wavenumbers 1-3? The MJO has the strongest signal in the Indian ocean and in the West Pacific, but the average vertical structure is very different in each of those basins. We look at the reanalysis/analysis FNL, ERAI vertical structure of temperature and moisture as well as the surface zonal winds for two ocean basins. We also look at data from DYNAMO and TOGA_COARE in great detail (saturation fraction, temperature, entropy, surface zonal winds, gross moist stability, etc). The findings from observations and field projects for the two ocean basins are then compared to a linear WISHE model on an equatorial beta plane. Though linear WISHE has long been discounted as a plausible model for the MJO, the version we have developed explains many of the observed features of this phenomenon, in particular, the preference for large zonal scale, the eastward propagation, the westward group velocity, and the thermodynamic structure. There is no need to postulate large-scale negative gross moist stability, as destabilization occurs via WISHE at long wavelengths only. This differs from early WISHE models because we take a moisture adjustment time scale of order one day in comparison to the much shorter time scales assumed in earlier models. Linear modeling cannot capture all of the features of the MJO, so we are in the process of adding nonlinearity.

Global scale modeling of riverine sediment loads: tropical rivers in a global context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Sagy; Syvitski, James; Kettner, Albert

2015-04-01

A global scale riverine sediment flux model (termed WBMsed) is introduced. The model predicts spatially and temporally explicit water, suspended sediment and nutrients flux in relatively high resolutions (6 arc-min and daily). Modeled riverine suspended sediment flux through global catchments is used in conjunction with observational data for 35 tropical basins to highlight key basin scaling relationships. A 50 year, daily model simulation illuminates how precipitation, relief, lithology and drainage basin area affect sediment load, yield and concentration. Tropical river systems, wherein much of a drainage basin experiences tropical climate are strongly influenced by the annual and inter-annual variations of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and its derivative monsoonal winds, have comparatively low inter-annual variation in sediment yield. Rivers draining rainforests and those subjected to tropical monsoons typically demonstrate high runoff, but with notable exceptions. High rainfall intensities from burst weather events are common in the tropics. The release of rain-forming aerosols also appears to uniquely increase regional rainfall, but its geomorphic manifestation is hard to detect. Compared to other more temperate river systems, climate-driven tropical rivers do not appear to transport a disproportionate amount of particulate load to the world's oceans, and their warmer, less viscous waters are less competent. Multiple-year hydrographs reveal that seasonality is a dominant feature of most tropical rivers, but the rivers of Papua New Guinea are somewhat unique being less seasonally modulated. Local sediment yield within the Amazon is highest near the Andes, but decreases towards the ocean as the river's discharge is diluted by water influxes from sediment-deprived rainforest tributaries

Application of interleaving models to describe intrusive layers in the Deep Polar Water of the Arctic Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhurbas, Nataliya; Kuzmina, Natalia; Lyzhkov, Dmitry; Izvekova, Yulia N.

2016-04-01

Interleaving models of pure thermohaline and baroclinic frontal zones of finite width are applied to describe intrusions at the fronts found in the upper part of the Deep Polar Water, the Eurasian basin, under stable-stable thermohaline stratification. It is assumed that differential mixing is the main mechanism of the intrusion formation. Different parameterizations of differential mixing (Merrryfield, 2002; Kuzmina et al., 2011) are used in the models. Important parameters of interleaving such as the growth rate, vertical scale, and slope of the most unstable modes are calculated. It is found that the interleaving model of a pure thermohaline front can satisfactory describe the important parameters of intrusions observed at a thermohaline, very low baroclinicity front in the Eurasian basin, just in accordance to Merryfield (2002) findings. In the case of baroclinic front, satisfactory agreement over all the interleaving parameters is found between the model calculations and observations provided that the vertical momentum diffusivity significantly exceeds the corresponding mass diffusivity. Under specific (reasonable) constraints of the vertical momentum diffusivity, the most unstable mode has a vertical scale approximately two-three times smaller than the vertical scale of the observed intrusions. A thorough discussion of the results is presented. References Kuzmina N., Rudels B., Zhurbas V., Stipa T. On the structure and dynamical features of intrusive layering in the Eurasian Basin in the Arctic Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 2011, 116, C00D11, doi:10.1029/2010JC006920. Merryfield W. J. Intrusions in Double-Diffusively Stable Arctic Waters: Evidence for Differential mixing? J. Phys. Oceanogr., 2002, 32, 1452-1439.

Statistical and Hydrological Evaluation of TRMM-Based Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis over the Wangchu Basin of Bhutan: Are the Latest Satellite Precipitation Products 3B42V7 Ready for Use in Ungauged Basins?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xue, Xianwu; Hong, Yang; Limaye, Ashutosh S.; Gourley, Jonathan; Huffman, George J.; Khan, Sadiq Ibrahim; Dorji, Chhimi; Chen, Sheng

2013-01-01

The objective of this study is to quantitatively evaluate the successive Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) products and further to explore the improvements and error propagation of the latest 3B42V7 algorithm relative to its predecessor 3B42V6 using the Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST) hydrologic model in the mountainous Wangchu Basin of Bhutan. First, the comparison to a decade-long (2001-2010) daily rain gauge dataset reveals that: 1) 3B42V7 generally improves upon 3B42V6s underestimation both for the whole basin (bias from -41.15 to -8.38) and for a 0.250.25 grid cell with high-density gauges (bias from -40.25 to 0.04), though with modest enhancement of correlation coefficients (CC) (from 0.36 to 0.40 for basin-wide and from 0.37 to 0.41 for grid); and 2) 3B42V7 also improves its occurrence frequency across the rain intensity spectrum. Using the CREST model that has been calibrated with rain gauge inputs, the 3B42V6-based simulation shows limited hydrologic prediction NSCE skill (0.23 in daily scale and 0.25 in monthly scale) while 3B42V7 performs fairly well (0.66 in daily scale and 0.77 in monthly scale), a comparable skill score with the gauge rainfall simulations. After recalibrating the model with the respective TMPA data, significant improvements are observed for 3B42V6 across all categories, but not as much enhancement for the already well-performing 3B42V7 except for a reduction in bias (from -26.98 to -4.81). In summary, the latest 3B42V7 algorithm reveals a significant upgrade from 3B42V6 both in precipitation accuracy (i.e., correcting the underestimation) thus improving its potential hydrological utility. Forcing the model with 3B42V7 rainfall yields comparable skill scores with in-situ gauges even without recalibration of the hydrological model by the satellite precipitation, a compensating approach often used but not favored by the hydrology community, particularly in ungauged basins.

Connectivity and storage functions of channel fens and flat bogs in northern basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinton, W. L.; Hayashi, M.; Pietroniro, A.

2003-12-01

The hydrological response of low relief, wetland-dominated zones of discontinuous permafrost is poorly understood. This poses a major obstacle to the development of a physically meaningful meso-scale hydrological model for the Mackenzie basin, one of the world's largest northern basins. The present study examines the runoff response of five representative study basins (Scotty Creek, and the Jean-Marie, Birch, Blackstone and Martin Rivers) in the lower Liard River valley as a function of their major biophysical characteristics. High-resolution (4 m × 4 m) IKONOS satellite imagery was used in combination with aerial and ground verification surveys to classify the land cover, and to delineate the wetland area connected to the drainage system. Analysis of the annual hydrographs of each basin for the 4 year period 1997 to 2000, demonstrated that runoff was positively correlated with the drainage density, basin slope, and the percentage of the basin covered by channel fens, and was negatively correlated with the percentage of the basin covered by flat bogs. The detailed analysis of the water-level response to summer rainstorms at several nodes along the main drainage network in the Scotty Creek basin showed that the storm water was slowly routed through channel fens with an average flood-wave velocity of 0·23 km h-1. The flood-wave velocity appears to be controlled by channel slope and hydraulic roughness in a manner consistent with the Manning formula, suggesting that a roughness-based routing algorithm might be useful in large-scale hydrological models. Copyright

Impact of different detachment topographies on pull-apart basin evolution - analog modelling and computer visualisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoprich, M.; Decker, K.; Grasemann, B.; Sokoutis, D.; Willingshofer, E.

2009-04-01

Former analog modeling on pull-apart basins dealt with different sidestep geometries, the symmetry and ratio between velocities of moving blocks, the ratio between ductile base and model thickness, the ratio between fault stepover and model thickness and their influence on basin evolution. In all these models the pull-apart basin is deformed over an even detachment. The Vienna basin, however, is considered a classical thin-skinned pull-apart with a rather peculiar basement structure. Deformation and basin evolution are believed to be limited to the brittle upper crust above the Alpine-Carpathian floor thrust. The latter is not a planar detachment surface, but has a ramp-shaped topography draping the underlying former passive continental margin. In order to estimate the effects of this special geometry, nine experiments were accomplished and the resulting structures were compared with the Vienna basin. The key parameters for the models (fault and basin geometry, detachment depth and topography) were inferred from a 3D GoCad model of the natural Vienna basin, which was compiled from seismic, wells and geological cross sections. The experiments were scaled 1:100.000 ("Ramberg-scaling" for brittle rheology) and built of quartz sand (300 µm grain size). An average depth of 6 km (6 cm) was calculated for the basal detachment, distances between the bounding strike-slip faults of 40 km (40 cm) and a finite length of the natural basin of 200 km were estimated (initial model length: 100 cm). The following parameters were changed through the experimental process: (1) syntectonic sedimentation; (2) the stepover angle between bounding strike slip faults and basal velocity discontinuity; (3) moving of one or both fault blocks (producing an asymmetrical or symmetrical basin); (4) inclination of the basal detachment surface by 5°; (6) installation of 2 and 3 ramp systems at the detachment; (7) simulation of a ductile detachment through a 0.4 cm thick PDMS layer at the basin floor. The surface of the model was photographed after each deformation increment through the experiment. Pictures of serial cross sections cut through the models in their final state every 4 cm were also taken and interpreted. The formation of en-echelon normal faults with relay ramps is observed in all models. These faults are arranged in an acute angle to the basin borders, according to a Riedel-geometry. In the case of an asymmetric basin they emerge within the non-moving fault block. Substantial differences between the models are the number, the distance and the angle of these Riedel faults, the length of the bounding strike-slip faults and the cross basin symmetry. A flat detachment produces straight fault traces, whereas inclined detachments (or inclined ramps) lead to "bending" of the normal faults, rollover and growth strata thickening towards the faults. Positions and the sizes of depocenters also vary, with depocenters preferably developing above ramp-flat-transitions. Depocenter thicknesses increase with ramp heights. A similar relation apparently exists in the natural Vienna basin, which shows ramp-like structures in the detachment just underneath large faults like the Steinberg normal fault and the associated depocenters. The 3-ramp-model also reveals segmentation of the basin above the lowermost ramp. The evolving structure is comparable to the Wiener Neustadt sub-basin in the southern part of the Vienna basin, which is underlain by a topographical high of the detachment. Cross sections through the ductile model show a strong disintergration into a horst-and-graben basin. The thin silicon putty base influences the overlying strata in a way that the basin - unlike the "dry" sand models - becomes very flat and shallow. The top view shows an irregular basin shape and no rhombohedral geometry, which characterises the Vienna basin. The ductile base also leads to a symmetrical distribution of deformation on both fault blocks, even though only one fault block is moved. The stepover angle, the influence of gravitation in a ramp or inclined system and the strain accomodation by a viscous silicone layer can be summarized as factors controlling the characteristics of the models.

Interfacial film formation: influence on oil spreading rates in lab basin tests and dispersant effectiveness testing in a wave tank.

PubMed

King, Thomas L; Clyburne, Jason A C; Lee, Kenneth; Robinson, Brian J

2013-06-15

Test facilities such as lab basins and wave tanks are essential when evaluating the use of chemical dispersants to treat oil spills at sea. However, these test facilities have boundaries (walls) that provide an ideal environment for surface (interfacial) film formation on seawater. Surface films may form from surfactants naturally present in crude oil as well as dispersant drift/overspray when applied to an oil spill. The objective of this study was to examine the impact of surface film formation on oil spreading rates in a small scale lab basin and on dispersant effectiveness conducted in a large scale wave tank. The process of crude oil spreading on the surface of the basin seawater was influenced in the presence of a surface film as shown using a 1st order kinetic model. In addition, interfacial film formation can greatly influence chemically dispersed crude oil in a large scale dynamic wave tank. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variability in warm-season atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns over subtropical South America: relationships between the South Atlantic convergence zone and large-scale organized convection over the La Plata basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattingly, Kyle S.; Mote, Thomas L.

2017-01-01

Warm-season precipitation variability over subtropical South America is characterized by an inverse relationship between the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and precipitation over the central and western La Plata basin of southeastern South America. This study extends the analysis of this "South American Seesaw" precipitation dipole to relationships between the SACZ and large, long-lived mesoscale convective systems (LLCSs) over the La Plata basin. By classifying SACZ events into distinct continental and oceanic categories and building a logistic regression model that relates LLCS activity across the region to continental and oceanic SACZ precipitation, a detailed account of spatial variability in the out-of-phase coupling between the SACZ and large-scale organized convection over the La Plata basin is provided. Enhanced precipitation in the continental SACZ is found to result in increased LLCS activity over northern, northeastern, and western sections of the La Plata basin, in association with poleward atmospheric moisture flux from the Amazon basin toward these regions, and a decrease in the probability of LLCS occurrence over the southeastern La Plata basin. Increased oceanic SACZ precipitation, however, was strongly related to reduced atmospheric moisture and decreased probability of LLCS occurrence over nearly the entire La Plata basin. These results suggest that continental SACZ activity and large-scale organized convection over the northern and eastern sections of the La Plata basin are closely tied to atmospheric moisture transport from the Amazon basin, while the warm coastal Brazil Current may also play an important role as an evaporative moisture source for LLCSs over the central and western La Plata basin.

Design of Deflectors for Little Goose Spillway, Snake River, Oregon: A Physical Model Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

model of the spillway. Four different deflector designs were compared relative to flow conditions in the stilling basin and tailrace area of the...performance in a 1:40-scale section model of the spillway. Four different deflector designs were compared relative to flow conditions in the stilling basin and...ER D C/ CH L TR -1 7- 10 Dissolved Gas Abatement Studies Design of Deflectors for Little Goose Spillway, Snake River, Oregon A

Effects of A Weak Crustal Layer in a Transtensional Pull-Apart Basin: Results from a Scaled Physical Modeling Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dooley, T. P.; Monastero, F. C.; McClay, K. R.

2007-12-01

Results of scaled physical models of a releasing bend in the transtensional, dextral strike-slip Coso geothermal system located in the southwest Basin and Range, U.S.A., are instructive for understanding crustal thinning and heat flow in such settings. The basic geometry of the Coso system has been approximated to a 30? dextral releasing stepover. Twenty-four model runs were made representing successive structural iterations that attempted to replicate geologic structures found in the field. The presence of a shallow brittle-ductile transition in the field known from a well-documented seismic-aseismic boundary, was accommodated by inclusion of layers of silicone polymer in the models. A single polymer layer models a conservative brittle-ductile transition in the Coso area at a depth of 6 km. Dual polymer layers impose a local elevation of the brittle-ductile transition to a depth of 4 km. The best match to known geologic structures was achieved with a double layer of silicone polymers with an overlying layer of 100 µm silica sand, a 5° oblique divergent motion across the master strike-slip faults, and a thin-sheet basal rubber décollement. Variation in the relative displacement of the two base plates resulted in some switching in basin symmetry, but the primary structural features remained essentially the same. Although classic, basin-bounding sidewall fault structures found in all pull-apart basin analog models formed in our models, there were also atypical complex intra-basin horst structures that formed where the cross-basin fault zone is situated. These horsts are flanked by deep sedimentary basins that were the locus of maximum crustal thinning accomplished via high-angle extensional and oblique-extensional faults that become progressively more listric with depth as the brittle-ductile transition was approached. Crustal thinning was as much as 50% of the original model depth in dual polymer models. The weak layer at the base of the upper crust appears to focus brittle deformation and facilitate formation of listric normal faults. The implications of these modeling efforts are that: 1) Releasing stepovers that have associated weak upper crust will undergo a more rapid rate of crustal thinning due to the strain focusing effect of this ductile layer; 2) The origin of listric normal faults in these analog models is related to the presence of the weak, ductile layer; and, 3) Due to high dilatency related to major intra-basin extension these stepover structures can be the loci for high heat flow.

Watershed-scale evaluation of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model in the Lake Tahoe basin

Treesearch

Erin S. Brooks; Mariana Dobre; William J. Elliot; Joan Q. Wu; Jan Boll

2016-01-01

Forest managers need methods to evaluate the impacts of management at the watershed scale. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) has the ability to model disturbed forested hillslopes, but has difficulty addressing some of the critical processes that are important at a watershed scale, including baseflow and water yield. In order to apply WEPP to...

Drought forecasting in Luanhe River basin involving climatic indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Weinan; Wang, Yixuan; Li, Jianzhu; Feng, Ping; Smith, Ronald J.

2017-11-01

Drought is regarded as one of the most severe natural disasters globally. This is especially the case in Tianjin City, Northern China, where drought can affect economic development and people's livelihoods. Drought forecasting, the basis of drought management, is an important mitigation strategy. In this paper, we evolve a probabilistic forecasting model, which forecasts transition probabilities from a current Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) value to a future SPI class, based on conditional distribution of multivariate normal distribution to involve two large-scale climatic indices at the same time, and apply the forecasting model to 26 rain gauges in the Luanhe River basin in North China. The establishment of the model and the derivation of the SPI are based on the hypothesis of aggregated monthly precipitation that is normally distributed. Pearson correlation and Shapiro-Wilk normality tests are used to select appropriate SPI time scale and large-scale climatic indices. Findings indicated that longer-term aggregated monthly precipitation, in general, was more likely to be considered normally distributed and forecasting models should be applied to each gauge, respectively, rather than to the whole basin. Taking Liying Gauge as an example, we illustrate the impact of the SPI time scale and lead time on transition probabilities. Then, the controlled climatic indices of every gauge are selected by Pearson correlation test and the multivariate normality of SPI, corresponding climatic indices for current month and SPI 1, 2, and 3 months later are demonstrated using Shapiro-Wilk normality test. Subsequently, we illustrate the impact of large-scale oceanic-atmospheric circulation patterns on transition probabilities. Finally, we use a score method to evaluate and compare the performance of the three forecasting models and compare them with two traditional models which forecast transition probabilities from a current to a future SPI class. The results show that the three proposed models outperform the two traditional models and involving large-scale climatic indices can improve the forecasting accuracy.

Assessing the groundwater salinization in closed hydrologic basins due to overdraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Z.; Pauloo, R.; Fogg, G. E.

2016-12-01

Population growth and the expansion of agriculture, coupled with climate uncertainties, have accelerated groundwater pumping and overdraft in alluvial aquifers worldwide. In many agricultural basins, the low rate of replenishment is far exceeded by the rate of groundwater pumping in overdrafted aquifers, which results in the substantial water table declines and in effect contributes to the formation of a "closed" basin. In fact, even modest amounts of groundwater system drawdown that do not produce what is construed as overdraft, can result in most of the groundwater discharge occurring as evapotranspiration via irrigation practices, converting the basin to a closed groundwater basin. Moreover, in past decades, extreme weather conditions (i.e., severe drought in California for the past five years) have resulted in substantially reduced surface water storage. This increases demand for groundwater to supplement low surface water supplies, and consequently, drives groundwater overdraft, and hence, groundwater salinization. In these newly closed basins, just as in other naturally closed basins such as Death Valley and the Great Salt Lake, groundwater salinity must increase not only due to evaporation, but also due to rock water interactions in the groundwater system, and lack of a natural outlet for the groundwater. In this study, the water balance and salt balance in closed basins of the Central Valley, California are computed. Groundwater degradation under the current overdraft conditions is further investigated using simple models that are developed by upscaling more complex and heterogeneous transport models. The focus of this study is to determine the applicability of these simple models to represent regional transport without explicitly including the large-scale heterogeneity inherent in the more complex models. Groundwater salinization processes, including salt accumulation caused by evapotranspiration of applied irrigation water and rock-groundwater interactions are simulated, and the time scales under which groundwater salinity may pose a threat to societies is estimated. Lastly, and most importantly, management strategies to mitigate groundwater salinization are examined.

Nonlinear effects of locally heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity fields on regional stream-aquifer exchanges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, J.; Winter, C. L.; Wang, Z.

2015-08-01

Computational experiments are performed to evaluate the effects of locally heterogeneous conductivity fields on regional exchanges of water between stream and aquifer systems in the Middle Heihe River Basin (MHRB) of northwestern China. The effects are found to be nonlinear in the sense that simulated discharges from aquifers to streams are systematically lower than discharges produced by a base model parameterized with relatively coarse effective conductivity. A similar, but weaker, effect is observed for stream leakage. The study is organized around three hypotheses: (H1) small-scale spatial variations of conductivity significantly affect regional exchanges of water between streams and aquifers in river basins, (H2) aggregating small-scale heterogeneities into regional effective parameters systematically biases estimates of stream-aquifer exchanges, and (H3) the biases result from slow-paths in groundwater flow that emerge due to small-scale heterogeneities. The hypotheses are evaluated by comparing stream-aquifer fluxes produced by the base model to fluxes simulated using realizations of the MHRB characterized by local (grid-scale) heterogeneity. Levels of local heterogeneity are manipulated as control variables by adjusting coefficients of variation. All models are implemented using the MODFLOW simulation environment, and the PEST tool is used to calibrate effective conductivities defined over 16 zones within the MHRB. The effective parameters are also used as expected values to develop log-normally distributed conductivity (K) fields on local grid scales. Stream-aquifer exchanges are simulated with K fields at both scales and then compared. Results show that the effects of small-scale heterogeneities significantly influence exchanges with simulations based on local-scale heterogeneities always producing discharges that are less than those produced by the base model. Although aquifer heterogeneities are uncorrelated at local scales, they appear to induce coherent slow-paths in groundwater fluxes that in turn reduce aquifer-stream exchanges. Since surface water-groundwater exchanges are critical hydrologic processes in basin-scale water budgets, these results also have implications for water resources management.

Application of a Nested Modeling Approach Using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the Southeastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafontaine, J.; Hay, L.; Viger, R.; Markstrom, S. L.

2010-12-01

In order to help environmental resource managers assess potential effects of climate change on ecosystems, the Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) began in 2009. One component of the SERAP is development and calibration of a set of multi-resolution hydrologic models of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin. The ACF River Basin is home to multiple fish and wildlife species of conservation concern, is regionally important for water supply, and has been a recent focus of complementary environmental and climate-change research. Hydrologic models of varying spatial extents and resolutions are required to address varied local to regional water-resource management questions as required by the scope and limits of potential management actions. These models were developed using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). The coarse-resolution model for the ACF Basin has a contributing area of approximately 19,200 mi2 with the model outlet located at the USGS streamflow gage on the Apalachicola River near Sumatra, Florida. Six fine-resolution PRMS models ranging in size from 153 mi2 to 1,040 mi2 are nested within the coarse-scale model, and have been developed for the following basins: upper Chattahoochee, Chestatee, and Chipola Rivers, Ichawaynochaway, Potato, and Spring Creeks. All of the models simulate basin hydrology using a daily time-step, measured climate data, and basin characteristics such as land cover and topography. Measured streamflow data are used to calibrate and evaluate computed basin hydrology. Land cover projections will be used in conjunction with downscaled Global Climate Model results to project future hydrologic conditions for this set of models.

Spatial and temporal constraints on regional-scale groundwater flow in the Pampa del Tamarugal Basin, Atacama Desert, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayne, Richard S.; Pollyea, Ryan M.; Dodd, Justin P.; Olson, Elizabeth J.; Swanson, Susan K.

2016-12-01

Aquifers within the Pampa del Tamarugal Basin (Atacama Desert, northern Chile) are the sole source of water for the coastal city of Iquique and the economically important mining industry. Despite this, the regional groundwater system remains poorly understood. Although it is widely accepted that aquifer recharge originates as precipitation in the Altiplano and Andean Cordillera to the east, there remains debate on whether recharge is driven primarily by near-surface groundwater flow in response to periodic flood events or by basal groundwater flux through deep-seated basin fractures. In addressing this debate, the present study quantifies spatial and temporal variability in regional-scale groundwater flow paths at 20.5°S latitude by combining a two-dimensional model of groundwater and heat flow with field observations and δ18O isotope values in surface water and groundwater. Results suggest that both previously proposed aquifer recharge mechanisms are likely influencing aquifers within the Pampa del Tamarugal Basin; however, each mechanism is operating on different spatial and temporal scales. Storm-driven flood events in the Altiplano readily transmit groundwater to the eastern Pampa del Tamarugal Basin through near-surface groundwater flow on short time scales, e.g., 100-101 years, but these effects are likely isolated to aquifers in the eastern third of the basin. In addition, this study illustrates a physical mechanism for groundwater originating in the eastern highlands to recharge aquifers and salars in the western Pampa del Tamarugal Basin over timescales of 104-105 years.

A framework model for water-sharing among co-basin states of a river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garg, N. K.; Azad, Shambhu

2018-05-01

A new framework model is presented in this study for sharing of water in a river basin using certain governing variables, in an effort to enhance the objectivity for a reasonable and equitable allocation of water among co-basin states. The governing variables were normalised to reduce the governing variables of different co-basin states of a river basin on same scale. In the absence of objective methods for evaluating the weights to be assigned to co-basin states for water allocation, a framework was conceptualised and formulated to determine the normalised weighting factors of different co-basin states as a function of the governing variables. The water allocation to any co-basin state had been assumed to be proportional to its struggle for equity, which in turn was assumed to be a function of the normalised discontent, satisfaction, and weighting factors of each co-basin state. System dynamics was used effectively to represent and solve the proposed model formulation. The proposed model was successfully applied to the Vamsadhara river basin located in the South-Eastern part of India, and a sensitivity analysis of the proposed model parameters was carried out to prove its robustness in terms of the proposed model convergence and validity over the broad spectrum values of the proposed model parameters. The solution converged quickly to a final allocation of 1444 million cubic metre (MCM) in the case of the Odisha co-basin state, and to 1067 MCM for the Andhra Pradesh co-basin state. The sensitivity analysis showed that the proposed model's allocation varied from 1584 MCM to 1336 MCM for Odisha state and from 927 to 1175 MCM for Andhra, depending upon the importance weights given to the governing variables for the calculation of the weighting factors. Thus, the proposed model was found to be very flexible to explore various policy options to arrive at a decision in a water sharing problem. It can therefore be effectively applied to any trans-boundary problem where there is conflict about water-sharing among co-basin states.

Recharge and Groundwater Flow Within an Intracratonic Basin, Midwestern United States.

PubMed

Panno, Samuel V; Askari, Zohreh; Kelly, Walton R; Parris, Thomas M; Hackley, Keith C

2018-01-01

The conservative nature of chloride (Cl - ) in groundwater and the abundance of geochemical data from various sources (both published and unpublished) provided a means of developing, for the first time, a representation of the hydrogeology of the Illinois Basin on a basin-wide scale. The creation of Cl - isocons superimposed on plan view maps of selected formations and on cross sections across the Illinois Basin yielded a conceptual model on a basin-wide scale of recharge into, groundwater flow within and through the Illinois Basin. The maps and cross sections reveal the infiltration and movement of freshwater into the basin and dilution of brines within various geologic strata occurring at basin margins and along geologic structures. Cross-formational movement of brines is also seen in the northern part of the basin. The maps and cross sections also show barriers to groundwater movement created by aquitards resulting in areas of apparent isolation/stagnation of concentrated brines within the basin. The distribution of Cl - within the Illinois Basin suggests that the current chemical composition of groundwater and distribution of brines within the basin is dependent on five parameters: (1) presence of bedrock exposures along basin margins; (2) permeability of geologic strata and their distribution relative to one another; (3) presence or absence of major geologic structures; (4) intersection of major waterways with geologic structures, basin margins, and permeable bedrock exposures; and (5) isolation of brines within the basin due to aquitards, inhomogeneous permeability, and, in the case of the deepest part of the basin, brine density effects. © 2017, National Ground Water Association.

Improving evaluation of climate change impacts on the water cycle by remote sensing ET-retrieval

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García Galiano, S. G.; Olmos Giménez, P.; Ángel Martínez Pérez, J.; Diego Giraldo Osorio, J.

2015-05-01

Population growth and intense consumptive water uses are generating pressures on water resources in the southeast of Spain. Improving the knowledge of the climate change impacts on water cycle processes at the basin scale is a step to building adaptive capacity. In this work, regional climate model (RCM) ensembles are considered as an input to the hydrological model, for improving the reliability of hydroclimatic projections. To build the RCMs ensembles, the work focuses on probability density function (PDF)-based evaluation of the ability of RCMs to simulate of rainfall and temperature at the basin scale. To improve the spatial calibration of the continuous hydrological model used, an algorithm for remote sensing actual evapotranspiration (AET) retrieval was applied. From the results, a clear decrease in runoff is expected for 2050 in the headwater basin studied. The plausible future scenario of water shortage will produce negative impacts on the regional economy, where the main activity is irrigated agriculture.

Flood hazard studies in Central Texas using orbital and suborbital remote sensing machinery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, V. R.; Holz, R. K.; Patton, P. C.

1975-01-01

Central Texas is subject to infrequent, unusually intense rainstorms which cause extremely rapid runoff from drainage basins developed on the deeply dissected limestone and marl bedrock of the Edwards Plateau. One approach to flood hazard evaluation in this area is a parametric model relating flood hydrograph characteristics to quantitative geomorphic properties of the drainage basins. The preliminary model uses multiple regression techniques to predict potential peak flood discharge from basin magnitude, drainage density, and ruggedness number. After mapping small catchment networks from remote sensing imagery, input data for the model are generated by network digitization and analysis by a computer assisted routine of watershed analysis. The study evaluated the network resolution capabilities of the following data formats: (1) large-scale (1:24,000) topographic maps, employing Strahler's "method of v's," (2) standard low altitude black and white aerial photography (1:13,000 and 1:20,000 scales), (3) NASA - generated aerial infrared photography at scales ranging from 1:48,000 to 1:123,000, and (4) Skylab Earth Resources Experiment Package S-190A and S-190B sensors (1:750,000 and 1:500,000 respectively).

Diagnostic modeling of trace metal partitioning in south San Francisco Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, T. W.; Baptista, A. M.; Kuwabara, J.S.; Flegal, A.R.

1995-01-01

The numerical results indicate that aqueous speciation will control basin-scale spatial variations in the apparent distribution coefficient, Kda, if the system is close to equilibrium. However, basin-scale spatial variations in Kda are determined by the location of the sources of metal and the suspended solids concentration of the receiving water if the system is far from equilibrium. The overall spatial variability in Kda also increases as the system moves away from equilibrium.

Basin-Scale Hydrologic Impacts of CO2 Storage: Regulatory and Capacity Implications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Birkholzer, J.T.; Zhou, Q.

Industrial-scale injection of CO{sub 2} into saline sedimentary basins will cause large-scale fluid pressurization and migration of native brines, which may affect valuable groundwater resources overlying the deep sequestration reservoirs. In this paper, we discuss how such basin-scale hydrologic impacts can (1) affect regulation of CO{sub 2} storage projects and (2) may reduce current storage capacity estimates. Our assessment arises from a hypothetical future carbon sequestration scenario in the Illinois Basin, which involves twenty individual CO{sub 2} storage projects in a core injection area suitable for long-term storage. Each project is assumed to inject five million tonnes of CO{sub 2}more » per year for 50 years. A regional-scale three-dimensional simulation model was developed for the Illinois Basin that captures both the local-scale CO{sub 2}-brine flow processes and the large-scale groundwater flow patterns in response to CO{sub 2} storage. The far-field pressure buildup predicted for this selected sequestration scenario suggests that (1) the area that needs to be characterized in a permitting process may comprise a very large region within the basin if reservoir pressurization is considered, and (2) permits cannot be granted on a single-site basis alone because the near- and far-field hydrologic response may be affected by interference between individual sites. Our results also support recent studies in that environmental concerns related to near-field and far-field pressure buildup may be a limiting factor on CO{sub 2} storage capacity. In other words, estimates of storage capacity, if solely based on the effective pore volume available for safe trapping of CO{sub 2}, may have to be revised based on assessments of pressure perturbations and their potential impact on caprock integrity and groundwater resources, respectively. We finally discuss some of the challenges in making reliable predictions of large-scale hydrologic impacts related to CO{sub 2} sequestration projects.« less

The Formation of Lunar Impact Basins: Observational Constraints from LRO Datasets and Comparisons with Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, D. M. H.; Head, J. W., III

2016-12-01

Impact basins provide windows into the subsurface and through time on a planetary body. However, meaningful geologic interpretations rely on a detailed understanding of their formation and the origin of basin materials. Data from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) have been critical to advancing our understanding of the formation of impact basins. We present a number of recent observations, including measurements of basin morphometry, mineralogy, and gravity anomalies, which provide a framework for constraining current formation models. Image data from the LRO Wide Angle Camera (WAC) and altimetry data from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) were used to refine the recognition of both fresh and degraded impact basins, including their ring structures. Analyses of gravity anomalies from the GRAIL mission show that mantle uplifts confined within the inner basin rings are characteristics that basins acquire from the onset. We used LOLA data to also make new measurements of basin morphometry. Small basins possessing two concentric rings ("peak-ring basins") have unique topographic signatures, consisting of inner depressions bounded by a peak ring and a higher annulus that grades to steeper wall material. LRO Narrow Angle Camera (NAC) images and Diviner rock abundance maps were used to identify boulder-rich outcrops in basin rings, which focused mineralogical analyses using Moon Mineralogy Mapper hyperspectral data. Crystalline plagioclase and candidate shock plagioclase outcrops were found to be abundant within basins of all sizes. These observations combined with crater scaling laws and lunar crustal thickness constrain the depth of origin of basin peak rings to be near the maximum depth of excavation. Comparisons between iSALE numerical models and observations show important consistencies and inconsistencies that can help to refine current models. In particular, improvements in the match between observed and modeled morphometry of craters transitional between complex craters with central peaks and peak-ring basins are needed. Models of the predicted gravity signature for a range of basin sizes could also benefit from additional comparisons with those observed. This work also provides a framework for understanding the degraded impact-basin record on Earth, including the Chicxulub basin.

Assessment of the water supply:demand ratios in a Mediterranean basin under different global change scenarios and mitigation alternatives.

PubMed

Boithias, Laurie; Acuña, Vicenç; Vergoñós, Laura; Ziv, Guy; Marcé, Rafael; Sabater, Sergi

2014-02-01

Spatial differences in the supply and demand of ecosystem services such as water provisioning often imply that the demand for ecosystem services cannot be fulfilled at the local scale, but it can be fulfilled at larger scales (regional, continental). Differences in the supply:demand (S:D) ratio for a given service result in different values, and these differences might be assessed with monetary or non-monetary metrics. Water scarcity occurs where and when water resources are not enough to meet all the demands, and this affects equally the service of water provisioning and the ecosystem needs. In this study we assess the value of water in a Mediterranean basin under different global change (i.e. both climate and anthropogenic changes) and mitigation scenarios, with a non-monetary metric: the S:D ratio. We computed water balances across the Ebro basin (North-East Spain) with the spatially explicit InVEST model. We highlight the spatial and temporal mismatches existing across a single hydrological basin regarding water provisioning and its consumption, considering or not, the environmental demand (environmental flow). The study shows that water scarcity is commonly a local issue (sub-basin to region), but that all demands are met at the largest considered spatial scale (basin). This was not the case in the worst-case scenario (increasing demands and decreasing supply), as the S:D ratio at the basin scale was near 1, indicating that serious problems of water scarcity might occur in the near future even at the basin scale. The analysis of possible mitigation scenarios reveals that the impact of global change may be counteracted by the decrease of irrigated areas. Furthermore, the comparison between a non-monetary (S:D ratio) and a monetary (water price) valuation metrics reveals that the S:D ratio provides similar values and might be therefore used as a spatially explicit metric to valuate the ecosystem service water provisioning. © 2013.

Evaluation of nutrient retention in vegetated filter strips using the SWAT model.

PubMed

Elçi, Alper

2017-11-01

Nutrient fluxes in stream basins need to be controlled to achieve good water quality status. In stream basins with intensive agricultural activities, nutrients predominantly come from diffuse sources. Therefore, best management practices (BMPs) are increasingly implemented to reduce nutrient input to streams. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of vegetated filter strip (VFS) application as an agricultural BMP. For this purpose, SWAT is chosen, a semi-distributed water quality assessment model that works at the watershed scale, and applied on the Nif stream basin, a small-sized basin in Western Turkey. The model is calibrated with an automated procedure against measured monthly discharge data. Nutrient loads for each sub-basin are estimated considering basin-wide data on chemical fertilizer and manure usage, population data for septic tank effluents and information about the land cover. Nutrient loads for 19 sub-basins are predicted on an annual basis. Average total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads are estimated as 47.85 t/yr and 13.36 t/yr for the entire basin. Results show that VFS application in one sub-basin offers limited retention of nutrients and that a selection of 20-m filter width is most effective from a cost-benefit perspective.

Validating Remotely Sensed Land Surface Evapotranspiration Based on Multi-scale Field Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Z.; Liu, S.; Ziwei, X.; Liang, S.

2012-12-01

The land surface evapotranspiration plays an important role in the surface energy balance and the water cycle. There have been significant technical and theoretical advances in our knowledge of evapotranspiration over the past two decades. Acquisition of the temporally and spatially continuous distribution of evapotranspiration using remote sensing technology has attracted the widespread attention of researchers and managers. However, remote sensing technology still has many uncertainties coming from model mechanism, model inputs, parameterization schemes, and scaling issue in the regional estimation. Achieving remotely sensed evapotranspiration (RS_ET) with confident certainty is required but difficult. As a result, it is indispensable to develop the validation methods to quantitatively assess the accuracy and error sources of the regional RS_ET estimations. This study proposes an innovative validation method based on multi-scale evapotranspiration acquired from field measurements, with the validation results including the accuracy assessment, error source analysis, and uncertainty analysis of the validation process. It is a potentially useful approach to evaluate the accuracy and analyze the spatio-temporal properties of RS_ET at both the basin and local scales, and is appropriate to validate RS_ET in diverse resolutions at different time-scales. An independent RS_ET validation using this method was presented over the Hai River Basin, China in 2002-2009 as a case study. Validation at the basin scale showed good agreements between the 1 km annual RS_ET and the validation data such as the water balanced evapotranspiration, MODIS evapotranspiration products, precipitation, and landuse types. Validation at the local scale also had good results for monthly, daily RS_ET at 30 m and 1 km resolutions, comparing to the multi-scale evapotranspiration measurements from the EC and LAS, respectively, with the footprint model over three typical landscapes. Although some validation experiments demonstrated that the models yield accurate estimates at flux measurement sites, the question remains whether they are performing well over the broader landscape. Moreover, a large number of RS_ET products have been released in recent years. Thus, we also pay attention to the cross-validation method of RS_ET derived from multi-source models. "The Multi-scale Observation Experiment on Evapotranspiration over Heterogeneous Land Surfaces: Flux Observation Matrix" campaign is carried out at the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin, China in 2012. Flux measurements from an observation matrix composed of 22 EC and 4 LAS are acquired to investigate the cross-validation of multi-source models over different landscapes. In this case, six remote sensing models, including the empirical statistical model, the one-source and two-source models, the Penman-Monteith equation based model, the Priestley-Taylor equation based model, and the complementary relationship based model, are used to perform an intercomparison. All the results from the two cases of RS_ET validation showed that the proposed validation methods are reasonable and feasible.

Investigating water budget dynamics in 18 river basins across the Tibetan Plateau through multiple datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Li, Yanzhong; Zhang, Guoqing; Sang, Yan-Fang; Lim, Wee Ho; Liu, Jiahong; Wang, Hong; Bai, Peng

2018-01-01

The dynamics of basin-scale water budgets over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are not well understood nowadays due to the lack of in situ hydro-climatic observations. In this study, we investigate the seasonal cycles and trends of water budget components (e.g. precipitation P, evapotranspiration ET and runoff Q) in 18 TP river basins during the period 1982-2011 through the use of multi-source datasets (e.g. in situ observations, satellite retrievals, reanalysis outputs and land surface model simulations). A water balance-based two-step procedure, which considers the changes in basin-scale water storage on the annual scale, is also adopted to calculate actual ET. The results indicated that precipitation (mainly snowfall from mid-autumn to next spring), which are mainly concentrated during June-October (varied among different monsoons-impacted basins), was the major contributor to the runoff in TP basins. The P, ET and Q were found to marginally increase in most TP basins during the past 30 years except for the upper Yellow River basin and some sub-basins of Yalong River, which were mainly affected by the weakening east Asian monsoon. Moreover, the aridity index (PET/P) and runoff coefficient (Q/P) decreased slightly in most basins, which were in agreement with the warming and moistening climate in the Tibetan Plateau. The results obtained demonstrated the usefulness of integrating multi-source datasets to hydrological applications in the data-sparse regions. More generally, such an approach might offer helpful insights into understanding the water and energy budgets and sustainability of water resource management practices of data-sparse regions in a changing environment.

A Preliminary Model Study of the Large-Scale Seasonal Cycle in Bottom Pressure Over the Global Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ponte, Rui M.

1998-01-01

Output from the primitive equation model of Semtner and Chervin is used to examine the seasonal cycle in bottom pressure (Pb) over the global ocean. Effects of the volume-conserving formulation of the model on the calculation Of Pb are considered. The estimated seasonal, large-scale Pb signals have amplitudes ranging from less than 1 cm over most of the deep ocean to several centimeters over shallow, boundary regions. Variability generally increases toward the western sides of the basins, and is also larger in some Southern Ocean regions. An oscillation between subtropical and higher latitudes in the North Pacific is clear. Comparison with barotropic simulations indicates that, on basin scales, seasonal Pb variability is related to barotropic dynamics and the seasonal cycle in Ekman pumping, and results from a small, net residual in mass divergence from the balance between Ekman and Sverdrup flows.

Soil and Land Resources Information System (SLISYS-Tarim) for Sustainable Management of River Oases along the Tarim River, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Othmanli, Hussein; Zhao, Chengyi; Stahr, Karl

2017-04-01

The Tarim River Basin is the largest continental basin in China. The region has extremely continental desert climate characterized by little rainfall <50 mm/a and high potential evaporation >3000 mm/a. The climate change is affecting severely the basin causing soil salinization, water shortage, and regression in crop production. Therefore, a Soil and Land Resources Information System (SLISYS-Tarim) for the regional simulation of crop yield production in the basin was developed. The SLISYS-Tarim consists of a database and an agro-ecological simulation model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate). The database comprises relational tables including information about soils, terrain conditions, land use, and climate. The soil data implicate information of 50 soil profiles which were dug, analyzed, described and classified in order to characterize the soils in the region. DEM data were integrated with geological maps to build a digital terrain structure. Remote sensing data of Landsat images were applied for soil mapping, and for land use and land cover classification. An additional database for climate data, land management and crop information were linked to the system, too. Construction of the SLISYS-Tarim database was accomplished by integrating and overlaying the recommended thematic maps within environment of the geographic information system (GIS) to meet the data standard of the global and national SOTER digital database. This database forms appropriate input- and output data for the crop modelling with the EPIC model at various scales in the Tarim Basin. The EPIC model was run for simulating cotton production under a constructed scenario characterizing the current management practices, soil properties and climate conditions. For the EPIC model calibration, some parameters were adjusted so that the modeled cotton yield fits to the measured yield on the filed scale. The validation of the modeling results was achieved in a later step based on remote sensing data. The simulated cotton yield varied according to field management, soil type and salinity level, where soil salinity was the main limiting factor. Furthermore, the calibrated and validated EPIC model was run under several scenarios of climate conditions and land management practices to estimate the effect of climate change on cotton production and sustainability of agriculture systems in the basin. The application of SLISYS-Tarim showed that this database can be a suitable framework for storage and retrieval of soil and terrain data at various scales. The simulation with the EPIC model can assess the impact of climate change and management strategies. Therefore, SLISYS-Tarim can be a good tool for regional planning and serve the decision support system on regional and national scale.

Impact of Clean Air Regulations on Nitrogen Fate and Transport in Neuse River Basin

EPA Science Inventory

We investigated impacts of Clean Air Act (CAA) nitrogen emissions regulations on the fate and transport of nitrogen for two watersheds in the Neuse River Basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) models were used. Two scenar...

Grouping like catchments: A novel means to compare 40+ watersheds in the Northeastern U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, S. B.; Walter, M.; Marjerison, R. D.

2008-12-01

One difficulty in understanding the effect of multi-scale patterns in watersheds comes from finding a concise way to identify and compare features across many basins. Comparing raw data (i.e. discharge time series) requires one to account for highly variable climate drivers while extracting meaningful metrics from the data series. Comparing model parameters imposes model assumptions that may obscure fundamental differences, potentially making it an exercise in comparing calibration factors. As a possible middle ground, we have found that the probability of a given basin-wide runoff response can be predicted by combining rainfall frequency with 1. a curve establishing a relationship between basin storage and base flow and 2. the baseflow flow-duration curve. In addition to providing a means to predict runoff, these curves succinctly present empirical runoff-response information, allowing ready graphical comparison of multiple watersheds. From 40+ watersheds throughout the Northeastern U.S., we demonstrate the potential to group watersheds and identify critical hydrologic features, providing particular insight into the influence of land use patterns as well as basin scale.

Evaluation of simulations to understand effects of groundwater development and artificial recharge on the surface water and riparian vegetation Sierra Vista subwatershed, Upper San Pedro Basin, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leake, Stanley A.; Gungle, Bruce

2012-01-01

In 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey documented a five-layer groundwater flow model of the Sierra Vista and Sonoran subwatersheds of the Upper San Pedro Basin. The model has been applied by a private consultant to evaluate the effects of projected groundwater pumping through 2105 and effects of artificial recharge at three near-stream sites for 2012-2111. The main concern regarding simulations of long-term groundwater pumping is the effect of artificial model boundaries on modeled response, particularly for pumping near Cananea, Sonora, Mexico, which is adjacent to an artificial no-flow boundary. Concerns regarding the simulations of the effects of artificial recharge near streams include the resolution of the model and the representation of the model properties at the site scale; a possible limited ability of the model to correctly apportion recharge response between increased streamflow and increased evapotranspiration; a limited ability of the model to simulate detailed geometries of artificial recharge areas and evapotranspiration areas; and stream locations with the 820-foot grid spacing of the basin-scale model. In spite of these concerns, use of the U.S. Geological Survey five-layer groundwater flow model by the consultant are reasonable and valid.

An Investigation on the Spatial Variability of Manning Roughness Coefficients in Continental-scale River Routing Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, X.; Hong, Y.; Lei, X.; Leung, L. R.; Li, H. Y.; Getirana, A.

2017-12-01

As one essential component of the Earth system modeling, the continental-scale river routing computation plays an important role in applications of Earth system models, such as evaluating the impacts of the global change on water resources and flood hazards. The streamflow timing, which depends on the modeled flow velocities, can be an important aspect of the model results. River flow velocities have been estimated by using the Manning's equation where the Manning roughness coefficient is a key and sensitive parameter. In some early continental-scale studies, the Manning coefficient was determined with simplified methods, such as using a constant value for the entire basin. However, large spatial variability is expected in the Manning coefficients for the numerous channels composing the river network in distributed continental-scale hydrologic modeling. In the application of a continental-scale river routing model in the Amazon Basin, we use spatially varying Manning coefficients dependent on channel sizes and attempt to represent the dominant spatial variability of Manning coefficients. Based on the comparisons of simulation results with in situ streamflow records and remotely sensed river stages, we investigate the comparatively optimal Manning coefficients and explicitly demonstrate the advantages of using spatially varying Manning coefficients. The understanding obtained in this study could be helpful in the modeling of surface hydrology at regional to continental scales.

Soil erosion and sediment connectivity modelling in Burgundy vineyards: case study of Mercurey, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fressard, Mathieu; Cossart, Étienne; Lejot, Jêrome; Michel, Kristell; Perret, Franck; Christol, Aurélien; Mathian, Hélène; Navratil, Oldrich

2017-04-01

This research aims at assessing the impact of agricultural landscape structure on soil erosion and sediment connectivity at the catchment scale. The investigations were conducted the vineyards of Mercurey (Burgundy, France), characterized by important issues related to soil loss, flash floods and associated management infrastructures maintenance. The methodology is based on two main steps that include (1) field investigations and (2) modelling. The field investigations consists in DEM acquisition by LiDAR imaging from a drone, soil mapping and human infrastructures impacting runoff classification and mapping (such as crop rows, storm water-basins, drainage network, roads, etc.). These data aims at supplying the models with field observations. The modelling strategy is based on two main steps: First, the modelling of soil sensitivity to erosion, using the spatial application of the RUSLE equation. Secondly, to assess the sediment connectivity in this area, a model based on graph theory developed by Cossart and Fressard (2017) is tested. The results allow defining the influence of different anthropogenic structures on the sediment connectivity and soil erosion at the basin scale. A set of sub-basins influenced by various anthropogenic infrastructures have been identified and show contrasted sensitivities to erosion. The modelling of sediment connectivity show that the runoff pattern is strongly influenced by the vine rows orientation and the drainage network. I has also permitted to identify non collected (by storm water-basins) areas that strongly contribute to the turbid floods sediment supply and to soil loss during high intensity precipitations events.

Modelling spatial and temporal variability of hydrologic impacts under climate changes over the Nenjiang River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hao; Zhang, Wanchang

2017-10-01

The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model was adopted for investigating spatial and temporal variability of hydrologic impacts of climate change over the Nenjiang River Basin (NRB) based on a set of gridded forcing dataset at 1/12th degree resolution from 1970 to 2013. Basin-scale changes in the input forcing data and the simulated hydrological variables of the NRB, as well as station-scale changes in discharges for three major hydrometric stations were examined, which suggested that the model was performed fairly satisfactory in reproducing the observed discharges, meanwhile, the snow cover and evapotranspiration in temporal and spatial patterns were simulated reasonably corresponded to the remotely sensed ones. Wetland maps produced by multi-sources satellite images covering the entire basin between 1978 and 2008 were also utilized for investigating the responses and feedbacks of hydrological regimes on wetland dynamics. Results revealed that significant decreasing trends appeared in annual, spring and autumn streamflow demonstrated strong affection of precipitation and temperature changes over the study watershed, and the effects of climate change on the runoff reduction varied in the sub-basin area over different time scales. The proportion of evapotranspiration to precipitation characterized several severe fluctuations in droughts and floods took place in the region, which implied the enhanced sensitiveness and vulnerability of hydrologic regimes to changing environment of the region. Furthermore, it was found that the different types of wetlands undergone quite unique variation features with the varied hydro-meteorological conditions over the region, such as precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. This study provided effective scientific basis for water resource managers to develop effective eco-environment management plans and strategies that address the consequences of climate changes.

Determination of the hydrological properties of a small-scale catchment area in Northern Greece from ASTER and SRTM DEMs and accuracy assessment with a local DTM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tzanou, E. A.; Vergos, G. S.

2012-04-01

The combined use of Geographic Information Systems and recent high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) from Remote Sensing imagery offers a unique opportunity to study the hydrological properties of basin and catchment dynamics and derive the hydrological features of specific regions of various spatial scales. Until recently, the availability of global DEMs was restricted to low-resolution and accuracy models, e.g., ETOPO5, ETOPO2 and GTOPO30, compared to local Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) derived from photogrammetric methods and offered usually in the form of topographic maps of various scales. The advent of the SRTM and ASTER missions, offer some new tools and opportunities in order to use their data within a GIS to study the hydrological properties of basins and consequently validate their performance both amongst each other, as well as in terms of the results derived from a local DTM. The present work focuses on the use of the recent SRTM v2 90 m and ASTER v2 30 m DEMs along with the national 500 m DTM generated by the Hellenic Military Geographic Service (HMGS), within a GIS in order to assess their performance in determining the hydrological properties of basins. To this respect, the ArcHydro extension tool of ArcGIS v9.3 and HEC-GeoRAS v4.3 have been exploited to determine the hydrographic data of the basins under study which are located in Northern Greece. The hydrological characteristics refer to stream geometry, curve number, flooding areas, etc. as well as the topographic characteristics of the basin itself, such as aspect, hillshade, slope e.t.c..

Development and Application of a Process-based River System Model at a Continental Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. S. H.; Dutta, D.; Vaze, J.; Hughes, J. D.; Yang, A.; Teng, J.

2014-12-01

Existing global and continental scale river models, mainly designed for integrating with global climate model, are of very course spatial resolutions and they lack many important hydrological processes, such as overbank flow, irrigation diversion, groundwater seepage/recharge, which operate at a much finer resolution. Thus, these models are not suitable for producing streamflow forecast at fine spatial resolution and water accounts at sub-catchment levels, which are important for water resources planning and management at regional and national scale. A large-scale river system model has been developed and implemented for water accounting in Australia as part of the Water Information Research and Development Alliance between Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and CSIRO. The model, developed using node-link architecture, includes all major hydrological processes, anthropogenic water utilisation and storage routing that influence the streamflow in both regulated and unregulated river systems. It includes an irrigation model to compute water diversion for irrigation use and associated fluxes and stores and a storage-based floodplain inundation model to compute overbank flow from river to floodplain and associated floodplain fluxes and stores. An auto-calibration tool has been built within the modelling system to automatically calibrate the model in large river systems using Shuffled Complex Evolution optimiser and user-defined objective functions. The auto-calibration tool makes the model computationally efficient and practical for large basin applications. The model has been implemented in several large basins in Australia including the Murray-Darling Basin, covering more than 2 million km2. The results of calibration and validation of the model shows highly satisfactory performance. The model has been operalisationalised in BoM for producing various fluxes and stores for national water accounting. This paper introduces this newly developed river system model describing the conceptual hydrological framework, methods used for representing different hydrological processes in the model and the results and evaluation of the model performance. The operational implementation of the model for water accounting is discussed.

Statistical Comparisons of watershed scale response to climate change in selected basins across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risley, John; Moradkhani, Hamid; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steve

2011-01-01

In an earlier global climate-change study, air temperature and precipitation data for the entire twenty-first century simulated from five general circulation models were used as input to precalibrated watershed models for 14 selected basins across the United States. Simulated daily streamflow and energy output from the watershed models were used to compute a range of statistics. With a side-by-side comparison of the statistical analyses for the 14 basins, regional climatic and hydrologic trends over the twenty-first century could be qualitatively identified. Low-flow statistics (95% exceedance, 7-day mean annual minimum, and summer mean monthly streamflow) decreased for almost all basins. Annual maximum daily streamflow also decreased in all the basins, except for all four basins in California and the Pacific Northwest. An analysis of the supply of available energy and water for the basins indicated that ratios of evaporation to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration to precipitation for most of the basins will increase. Probability density functions (PDFs) were developed to assess the uncertainty and multimodality in the impact of climate change on mean annual streamflow variability. Kolmogorov?Smirnov tests showed significant differences between the beginning and ending twenty-first-century PDFs for most of the basins, with the exception of four basins that are located in the western United States. Almost none of the basin PDFs were normally distributed, and two basins in the upper Midwest had PDFs that were extremely dispersed and skewed.

Statistical self-similarity of width function maxima with implications to floods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Veitzer, S.A.; Gupta, V.K.

2001-01-01

Recently a new theory of random self-similar river networks, called the RSN model, was introduced to explain empirical observations regarding the scaling properties of distributions of various topologic and geometric variables in natural basins. The RSN model predicts that such variables exhibit statistical simple scaling, when indexed by Horton-Strahler order. The average side tributary structure of RSN networks also exhibits Tokunaga-type self-similarity which is widely observed in nature. We examine the scaling structure of distributions of the maximum of the width function for RSNs for nested, complete Strahler basins by performing ensemble simulations. The maximum of the width function exhibits distributional simple scaling, when indexed by Horton-Strahler order, for both RSNs and natural river networks extracted from digital elevation models (DEMs). We also test a powerlaw relationship between Horton ratios for the maximum of the width function and drainage areas. These results represent first steps in formulating a comprehensive physical statistical theory of floods at multiple space-time scales for RSNs as discrete hierarchical branching structures. ?? 2001 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

Terrestrial Water Mass Load Changes from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seo, K.-W.; Wilson, C. R.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Chen, J. L.; Rodell M.

2006-01-01

Recent studies show that data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) is promising for basin- to global-scale water cycle research. This study provides varied assessments of errors associated with GRACE water storage estimates. Thirteen monthly GRACE gravity solutions from August 2002 to December 2004 are examined, along with synthesized GRACE gravity fields for the same period that incorporate simulated errors. The synthetic GRACE fields are calculated using numerical climate models and GRACE internal error estimates. We consider the influence of measurement noise, spatial leakage error, and atmospheric and ocean dealiasing (AOD) model error as the major contributors to the error budget. Leakage error arises from the limited range of GRACE spherical harmonics not corrupted by noise. AOD model error is due to imperfect correction for atmosphere and ocean mass redistribution applied during GRACE processing. Four methods of forming water storage estimates from GRACE spherical harmonics (four different basin filters) are applied to both GRACE and synthetic data. Two basin filters use Gaussian smoothing, and the other two are dynamic basin filters which use knowledge of geographical locations where water storage variations are expected. Global maps of measurement noise, leakage error, and AOD model errors are estimated for each basin filter. Dynamic basin filters yield the smallest errors and highest signal-to-noise ratio. Within 12 selected basins, GRACE and synthetic data show similar amplitudes of water storage change. Using 53 river basins, covering most of Earth's land surface excluding Antarctica and Greenland, we document how error changes with basin size, latitude, and shape. Leakage error is most affected by basin size and latitude, and AOD model error is most dependent on basin latitude.

How well do the GCMs replicate the historical precipitation variability in the Colorado River Basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guentchev, G.; Barsugli, J. J.; Eischeid, J.; Raff, D. A.; Brekke, L.

2009-12-01

Observed precipitation variability measures are compared to measures obtained using the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) General Circulation Models (GCM) data from 36 model projections downscaled by Brekke at al. (2007) and 30 model projections downscaled by Jon Eischeid. Three groups of variability measures are considered in this historical period (1951-1999) comparison: a) basic variability measures, such as standard deviation, interdecadal standard deviation; b) exceedance probability values, i.e., 10% (extreme wet years) and 90% (extreme dry years) exceedance probability values of series of n-year running mean annual amounts, where n=1,12; 10% exceedance probability values of annual maximum monthly precipitation (extreme wet months); and c) runs variability measures, e.g., frequency of negative and positive runs of annual precipitation amounts, total number of the negative and positive runs. Two gridded precipitation data sets produced from observations are used: the Maurer et al. (2002) and the Daly et al. (1994) Precipitation Regression on Independent Slopes Method (PRISM) data sets. The data consist of monthly grid-point precipitation averaged on a United States Geological Survey (USGS) hydrological sub-region scale. The statistical significance of the obtained model minus observed measure differences is assessed using a block bootstrapping approach. The analyses were performed on annual, seasonal and monthly scale. The results indicate that the interdecadal standard deviation is underestimated, in general, on all time scales by the downscaled model data. The differences are statistically significant at a 0.05 significance level for several Lower Colorado Basin sub-regions on annual and seasonal scale, and for several sub-regions located mostly in the Upper Colorado River Basin for the months of March, June, July and November. Although the models simulate drier extreme wet years, wetter extreme dry years and drier extreme wet months for the Upper Colorado basin, the differences are mostly not-significant. Exceptions are the results about the extreme wet years for n=3 for sub-region White-Yampa, for n=6, 7, and 8 for sub-region Upper Colorado-Dolores, and about the extreme dry years for n=11 for sub-region Great Divide-Upper Green. None of the results for the sub-regions in the Lower Colorado Basin were significant. For most of the Upper Colorado sub-regions the models simulate significantly lower frequency of negative and positive 4-6 year runs, while for several sub-regions a significantly higher frequency of 2-year negative runs is evident in the model versus the Maurer data comparisons. The model projections versus the PRISM data comparison reveals similar results for the negative runs, while for the positive runs the results indicate that the models simulate higher frequency of the 2-6 year runs. The results for the Lower Colorado basin sub-regions are similar, in general, to these for the Upper Colorado sub-regions. The differences between the simulated and the observed total number of negative or positive runs were not significant for almost all of the sub-regions within the Colorado River Basin.

Landscape Based Modeling of Nonpoint Source Nitrogen Loading in the Neuse River Basin, North Carolina

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garten, C.T.

2001-01-11

The objective of this research was to arrive at a quantitative and qualitative assessment of nonpoint sources of potential excess N under different land use/land cover (LULC) categories in the Neuse River Basin on a seasonal time scale. This assessment is being supplied to EPA's Landscape Characterization Branch, National Exposure Research Laboratory, in Research Triangle Park, NC, for inclusion in a hydrologic model to predict seasonal fluxes of N from the terrestrial landscape to surface receiving waters and groundwater in the Neuse River Basin. The analysis was performed in the following five steps: (1) development of a conceptual model tomore » predict potential excess N on land, (2) a literature review to parameterize N fluxes under LULC categories found in the Neuse River Basin, (3) acquisition of high resolution (15-m pixel) LULC data from EPA's Landscape Characterization Branch, National Exposure Research Laboratory, in Research Triangle Park, NC, (4) acquisition of a soil N inventory map for the Neuse River Basin, (5) calculations of potential excess N on a seasonal basis for the entire Neuse River Basin.« less

From Sub-basin to Grid Scale Soil Moisture Disaggregation in SMART, A Semi-distributed Hydrologic Modeling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajami, H.; Sharma, A.

2016-12-01

A computationally efficient, semi-distributed hydrologic modeling framework is developed to simulate water balance at a catchment scale. The Soil Moisture and Runoff simulation Toolkit (SMART) is based upon the delineation of contiguous and topologically connected Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs). In SMART, HRUs are delineated using thresholds obtained from topographic and geomorphic analysis of a catchment, and simulation elements are distributed cross sections or equivalent cross sections (ECS) delineated in first order sub-basins. ECSs are formulated by aggregating topographic and physiographic properties of the part or entire first order sub-basins to further reduce computational time in SMART. Previous investigations using SMART have shown that temporal dynamics of soil moisture are well captured at a HRU level using the ECS delineation approach. However, spatial variability of soil moisture within a given HRU is ignored. Here, we examined a number of disaggregation schemes for soil moisture distribution in each HRU. The disaggregation schemes are either based on topographic based indices or a covariance matrix obtained from distributed soil moisture simulations. To assess the performance of the disaggregation schemes, soil moisture simulations from an integrated land surface-groundwater model, ParFlow.CLM in Baldry sub-catchment, Australia are used. ParFlow is a variably saturated sub-surface flow model that is coupled to the Common Land Model (CLM). Our results illustrate that the statistical disaggregation scheme performs better than the methods based on topographic data in approximating soil moisture distribution at a 60m scale. Moreover, the statistical disaggregation scheme maintains temporal correlation of simulated daily soil moisture while preserves the mean sub-basin soil moisture. Future work is focused on assessing the performance of this scheme in catchments with various topographic and climate settings.

Estimating nitrate emissions to surface water at regional and national scale: comparison of models using detailed regional and national-wide databases (France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dupas, R.; Gascuel-Odoux, C.; Durand, P.; Parnaudeau, V.

2012-04-01

The European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires River Basin District managers to carry out an analysis of nutrient pressures and impacts, in order to evaluate the risk of water bodies failing to reach "good ecological status" and to identify those catchments where prioritized nonpoint-source control measures should be implemented. A model has been developed to estimate nitrate nonpoint-source emissions to surface water, using readily available data in France. It was inspired from US model SPARROW (Smith al., 1997) and European model GREEN (Grizzetti et al., 2008), i.e. statistical approaches consisting of linking nitrogen sources and catchments' land and rivers characteristics. The N-nitrate load (L) at the outlet of a catchment is expressed as: L= R*(B*Lsgw+Ldgw+PS)-denitlake Where denitlake is a denitrification factor for lakes and reservoirs, Lsgw is the shallow groundwater discharge to streams (derived from the base flow index and N surplus in kgN.ha-1.yr-1), Ldgw is the deep groundwater discharge to streams (derived from total runoff, the base flow index and deep groundwater N concentration), PS is point sources from domestic and industrial origin (kgN.ha-1.yr-1) and R and B are the river system and basin reduction factor, respectively. Besides calibrating and evaluating the model at a national scale, its predictive quality was compared with those of regionalized models in Brittany (Western France) and in the Seine river basin (Paris basin), where detailed regional databases are available. The national-scale model proved to provide robust predictions in most conditions encountered in France, as it fitted observed N-nitrate load with an efficiency of 0.69. Regionalization of the model reduced the standard error in the prediction of N-nitrate loads by about 19 Hence, the development of regionalized models should be advocated only after the trade-off between improvement of fit and degradation of parameters' estimation has come under scrutiny.

Increasingly, Data Availability Limits Model Predictive Capacity: the Western Lake Erie Basin, a Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behrman, K. D.; Johnson, M. V. V.; Atwood, J. D.; Norfleet, M. L.

2016-12-01

Recent algal blooms in Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) have renewed scientific community's interest in developing process based models to better understand and predict the drivers of eutrophic conditions in the lake. At the same time, in order to prevent future blooms, farmers, local communities and policy makers are interested in developing spatially explicit nutrient and sediment management plans at various scales, from field to watershed. These interests have fueled several modeling exercises intended to locate "hotspots" in the basin where targeted adoption of additional agricultural conservation practices could provide the most benefit to water quality. The models have also been used to simulate various scenarios representing potential agricultural solutions. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and its sister model, the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX), have been used to simulate hydrology of interacting land uses in thousands of scientific studies around the world. High performance computing allows SWAT and APEX users to continue to improve and refine the model specificity to make predictions at small-spatial scales. Consequently, data inputs and calibration/validation data are now becoming the limiting factor to model performance. Water quality data for the tributaries and rivers that flow through WLEB is spatially and temporally limited. Land management data, including conservation practice and nutrient management data, are not publicly available at fine spatial and temporal scales. Here we show the data uncertainties associated with modeling WLEB croplands at a relatively large spatial scale (HUC-4) using site management data from over 1,000 farms collected by the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP). The error associated with downscaling this data to the HUC-8 and HUC-12 scale is shown. Simulations of spatially explicit dynamics can be very informative, but care must be taken when policy decisions are made based on models with unstated, but implicit assumptions. As we interpret modeling results, we must communicate the spatial and temporal scale for which the model was developed and at which the data is valid. When there is little to no data to enable appropriate validation and calibration, the results must be interpreted with appropriate skepticism.

Trends in soil moisture and real evapotranspiration in Douro River for the period 1980-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Valdecasas-Ojeda, Matilde; de Franciscis, Sebastiano; Raquel Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Jesús Esteban-Parra, María

2017-04-01

This study analyzes the evolution of different hydrological variables, such as soil moisture and real evapotranspiration, for the last 30 years, in the Douro Basin, the most extensive basin in the Iberian Peninsula. The different components of the real evaporation, connected to the soil moisture content, can be important when analyzing the intensity of droughts and heat waves, and particularly relevant for the study of the climate change impacts. The real evapotranspiration and soil moisture data are provided by simulations obtained using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model. This model is a large-scale hydrologic model and allows estimates of different variables in the hydrological system of a basin. Land surface is modeled as a grid of large and uniform cells with sub-grid heterogeneity (e.g. land cover), while water influx is local, only depending from the interaction between grid cells and local atmosphere environment. Observational data of temperature and precipitation from Spain02 dataset are used as input variables for VIC model. The simulations have a spatial resolution of about 9 km, and the analysis is carried out on a seasonal time-scale. Additionally, we compare these results with those obtained from a dynamical downscaling driven by ERA-Interim data using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with the same spatial resolution. The results obtained from Spain02 data show a decrease in soil moisture at different parts of the basin during spring and summer, meanwhile soil moisture seems to be increased for autumn. No significant changes are found for real evapotranspiration. Keywords: real evapotranspiration, soil moisture, Douro Basin, trends, VIC, WRF. Acknowledgements: This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-Spain) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER).

Forecasting of extreme events in Andes mountain basins using CFSv2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, L.

2017-12-01

As has been shown in several recent studies related with climate change, there has been an increase in heavy daily precipitation events, and this is expected to continue in almost all areas of the globe. In central Chile, where the hydrological regime is influenced by snow accumulation, an increase in temperatures is expected due to CC, which in turn may cause an elevation of the freezing level. The impact on the freezing level increase is also significant because a larger area of the basin will be exposed to liquid precipitation rather than snow, and afterwards will have a strong impact on streamflow. The frequency of extreme precipitation events and freezing level increases have recently affected the north and central parts of Chile. In order to predict the severity of an extreme hydrometeorological event in a mountainous basin affected by rainfall and freezing level variations, this paper pose that it is necessary to know in advance the expected meteorology and the way it will affect the hydrological response of the basin. To achieve this purpose, it will be necessary to have meteorological forecasts of a numerical model for short-term prediction, corrected and disaggregated at local scale. The methodological process is as follows. First, we consider the generation of daily forecasts at local scale using statistical downscaling methods for the forecasts obtained from an NWP model. Second, we pose to improve our knowledge the spatial-temporal distribution of the meteorological forcings using a dense network of meteorological stations in a mountain basin. With the above, the statistical methods used to represent the spatial-temporal variability of the meteorological forcings at basin scale will be evaluated.

Nonlinear effects of locally heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity fields on regional stream-aquifer exchanges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, J.; Winter, C. L.; Wang, Z.

2015-11-01

Computational experiments are performed to evaluate the effects of locally heterogeneous conductivity fields on regional exchanges of water between stream and aquifer systems in the Middle Heihe River basin (MHRB) of northwestern China. The effects are found to be nonlinear in the sense that simulated discharges from aquifers to streams are systematically lower than discharges produced by a base model parameterized with relatively coarse effective conductivity. A similar, but weaker, effect is observed for stream leakage. The study is organized around three hypotheses: (H1) small-scale spatial variations of conductivity significantly affect regional exchanges of water between streams and aquifers in river basins, (H2) aggregating small-scale heterogeneities into regional effective parameters systematically biases estimates of stream-aquifer exchanges, and (H3) the biases result from slow paths in groundwater flow that emerge due to small-scale heterogeneities. The hypotheses are evaluated by comparing stream-aquifer fluxes produced by the base model to fluxes simulated using realizations of the MHRB characterized by local (grid-scale) heterogeneity. Levels of local heterogeneity are manipulated as control variables by adjusting coefficients of variation. All models are implemented using the MODFLOW (Modular Three-dimensional Finite-difference Groundwater Flow Model) simulation environment, and the PEST (parameter estimation) tool is used to calibrate effective conductivities defined over 16 zones within the MHRB. The effective parameters are also used as expected values to develop lognormally distributed conductivity (K) fields on local grid scales. Stream-aquifer exchanges are simulated with K fields at both scales and then compared. Results show that the effects of small-scale heterogeneities significantly influence exchanges with simulations based on local-scale heterogeneities always producing discharges that are less than those produced by the base model. Although aquifer heterogeneities are uncorrelated at local scales, they appear to induce coherent slow paths in groundwater fluxes that in turn reduce aquifer-stream exchanges. Since surface water-groundwater exchanges are critical hydrologic processes in basin-scale water budgets, these results also have implications for water resources management.

Global and local scale flood discharge simulations in the Rhine River basin for flood risk reduction benchmarking in the Flagship Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gädeke, Anne; Gusyev, Maksym; Magome, Jun; Sugiura, Ai; Cullmann, Johannes; Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi

2015-04-01

The global flood risk assessment is prerequisite to set global measurable targets of post-Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) that mobilize international cooperation and national coordination towards disaster risk reduction (DRR) and requires the establishment of a uniform flood risk assessment methodology on various scales. To address these issues, the International Flood Initiative (IFI) has initiated a Flagship Project, which was launched in year 2013, to support flood risk reduction benchmarking at global, national and local levels. In the Flagship Project road map, it is planned to identify the original risk (1), to identify the reduced risk (2), and to facilitate the risk reduction actions (3). In order to achieve this goal at global, regional and local scales, international research collaboration is absolutely necessary involving domestic and international institutes, academia and research networks such as UNESCO International Centres. The joint collaboration by ICHARM and BfG was the first attempt that produced the first step (1a) results on the flood discharge estimates with inundation maps under way. As a result of this collaboration, we demonstrate the outcomes of the first step of the IFI Flagship Project to identify flood hazard in the Rhine river basin on the global and local scale. In our assessment, we utilized a distributed hydrological Block-wise TOP (BTOP) model on 20-km and 0.5-km scales with local precipitation and temperature input data between 1980 and 2004. We utilized existing 20-km BTOP model, which is applied globally, and constructed the local scale 0.5-km BTOP model for the Rhine River basin. For the BTOP model results, both calibrated 20-km and 0.5-km BTOP models had similar statistical performance and represented observed flood river discharges, epecially for 1993 and 1995 floods. From 20-km and 0.5-km BTOP simulation, the flood discharges of the selected return period were estimated using flood frequency analysis and were comparable to the the river gauging station data at the German part of the Rhine river basin. This is an important finding that both 0.5-km and 20-km BTOP models produce similar flood peak discharges although the 0.5-km BTOP model results indicate the importance of scale in the local flood hazard assessment. In summary, we highlight that this study serves as a demonstrative example of institutional collaboration and is stepping stone for the next step implementation of the IFI Flagship Project.

Hydrologic Evaluation of TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis for Nanliu River Basin in Humid Southwestern China.

PubMed

Zhao, Yinjun; Xie, Qiongying; Lu, Yuan; Hu, Baoqing

2017-06-01

The accuracy of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) multi-satellite precipitation analysis (TMPA) daily accumulated precipitation products (3B42RTV7 and 3B42V7) was evaluated for a small basin (the Nanliu river basin). A direct comparison was performed against gauge observations from a period of 9 years (2000-2009) at temporal and spatial scales. The results show that the temporal-spatial precipitation characteristics of the Nanliu river basin are highly consistent with 3B42V7 relative to 3B42RTV7, with higher correlation coefficient (CC) approximately 0.9 at all temporal scales except for the daily scale and a lower relative bias percentage. 3B42V7 slightly overestimates precipitation at all temporal scales except the yearly scale; it slightly underestimates the precipitation at the daily spatial scale. The results also reveal that the precision of TMPA products increases with longer time-aggregated data, and the detection capability of daily TMPA precipitation products are enhanced by augmentation with daily precipitation rates. In addition, daily TMPA products were input into the Xin'anjiang hydrologic model; the results show that 3B42V7-based simulated outputs were well in line with actual stream flow observations, with a high CC (0.90) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE, 0.79), and the results adequately captured the pattern of the observed flow curve.

Climate change: evaluating your local and regional water resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Thorne, James H.

2015-01-01

The BCM is a fine-scale hydrologic model that uses detailed maps of soils, geology, topography, and transient monthly or daily maps of potential evapotranspiration, air temperature, and precipitation to generate maps of recharge, runoff, snow pack, actual evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit. With these comprehensive environmental inputs and experienced scientific analysis, the BCM provides resource managers with important hydrologic and ecologic understanding of a landscape or basin at hillslope to regional scales. The model is calibrated using historical climate and streamflow data over the range of geologic materials specific to an area. Once calibrated, the model is used to translate climate-change data into hydrologic responses for a defined landscape, to provide managers an understanding of potential ecological risks and threats to water supplies and managed hydrologic systems. Although limited to estimates of unimpaired hydrologic conditions, estimates of impaired conditions, such as agricultural demand, diversions, or reservoir outflows can be incorporated into the calibration of the model to expand its utility. Additionally, the model can be linked to other models, such as groundwater-flow models (that is, MODFLOW) or the integrated hydrologic model (MF-FMP), to provide information about subsurface hydrologic processes. The model can be applied at a relatively small scale, but also can be applied to large-scale national and international river basins.

Multi-Scale Simulations of Past and Future Projections of Hydrology in Lake Tahoe Basin, California-Nevada (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niswonger, R. G.; Huntington, J. L.; Dettinger, M. D.; Rajagopal, S.; Gardner, M.; Morton, C. G.; Reeves, D. M.; Pohll, G. M.

2013-12-01

Water resources in the Tahoe basin are susceptible to long-term climate change and extreme events because it is a middle-altitude, snow-dominated basin that experiences large inter-annual climate variations. Lake Tahoe provides critical water supply for its basin and downstream populations, but changes in water supply are obscured by complex climatic and hydrologic gradients across the high relief, geologically complex basin. An integrated surface and groundwater model of the Lake Tahoe basin has been developed using GSFLOW to assess the effects of climate change and extreme events on surface and groundwater resources. Key hydrologic mechanisms are identified with this model that explains recent changes in water resources of the region. Critical vulnerabilities of regional water-supplies and hazards also were explored. Maintaining a balance between (a) accurate representation of spatial features (e.g., geology, streams, and topography) and hydrologic response (i.e., groundwater, stream, lake, and wetland flows and storages), and (b) computational efficiency, is a necessity for the desired model applications. Potential climatic influences on water resources are analyzed here in simulations of long-term water-availability and flood responses to selected 100-year climate-model projections. GSFLOW is also used to simulate a scenario depicting an especially extreme storm event that was constructed from a combination of two historical atmospheric-river storm events as part of the USGS MultiHazards Demonstration Project. Historical simulated groundwater levels, streamflow, wetlands, and lake levels compare well with measured values for a 30-year historical simulation period. Results are consistent for both small and large model grid cell sizes, due to the model's ability to represent water table altitude, streams, and other hydrologic features at the sub-grid scale. Simulated hydrologic responses are affected by climate change, where less groundwater resources will be available during more frequent droughts. Simulated floods for the region indicate issues related to drainage in the developed areas around Lake Tahoe, and necessary dam releases that create downstream flood risks.

The role of river drainages in shaping the genetic structure of capybara populations.

PubMed

Byrne, María Soledad; Quintana, Rubén Darío; Bolkovic, María Luisa; Cassini, Marcelo H; Túnez, Juan Ignacio

2015-12-01

The capybara, Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris, is an herbivorous rodent widely distributed throughout most of South American wetlands that lives closely associated with aquatic environments. In this work, we studied the genetic structure of the capybara throughout part of its geographic range in Argentina using a DNA fragment of the mitochondrial control region. Haplotypes obtained were compared with those available for populations from Paraguay and Venezuela. We found 22 haplotypes in 303 individuals. Hierarchical AMOVAs were performed to evaluate the role of river drainages in shaping the genetic structure of capybara populations at the regional and basin scales. In addition, two landscape genetic models, isolation by distance and isolation by resistance, were used to test whether genetic distance was associated with Euclidean distance (i.e. isolation by distance) or river corridor distance (i.e. isolation by resistance) at the basin scale. At the regional scale, the results of the AMOVA grouping populations by mayor river basins showed significant differences between them. At the basin scale, we also found significant differences between sub-basins in Paraguay, together with a significant correlation between genetic and river corridor distance. For Argentina and Venezuela, results were not significant. These results suggest that in Paraguay, the current genetic structure of capybaras is associated with the lack of dispersion corridors through permanent rivers. In contrast, limited structuring in Argentina and Venezuela is likely the result of periodic flooding facilitating dispersion.

Alternative spatial configurations to reflect landscape structure in a hydrological model: SUMMA applications to the Reynolds Creek Watershed and the Columbia River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijssen, Bart; Clark, Martyn; Mizukami, Naoki; Chegwidden, Oriana

2016-04-01

Most existing hydrological models use a fixed representation of landscape structure. For example, high-resolution, spatially-distributed models may use grid cells that exchange moisture through the saturated subsurface or may divide the landscape into hydrologic response units that only exchange moisture through surface channels. Alternatively, many regional models represent the landscape through coarse elements that do not model any moisture exchange between these model elements. These spatial organizations are often represented at a low-level in the model code and its data structures, which makes it difficult to evaluate different landscape representations using the same hydrological model. Instead, such experimentation requires the use of multiple, different hydrological models, which in turn complicates the analysis, because differences in model outcomes are no longer constrained by differing spatial representations. This inflexibility in the representation of landscape structure also limits a model's capability for scaling local processes to regional outcomes. In this study, we used the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) to evaluate different model spatial configurations to represent landscape structure and to evaluate scaling behavior. SUMMA can represent the moisture exchange between arbitrarily shaped landscape elements in a number of different ways, while using the same model parameterizations for vertical fluxes. This allows us to isolate the effects of changes in landscape representations on modeled hydrological fluxes and states. We examine the effects of spatial configuration in Reynolds Creek, Idaho, USA, which is a research watershed with gaged areas from 1-20 km2. We then use the same modeling system to evaluate scaling behavior in simulated hydrological fluxes in the Columbia River Basin, Pacific Northwest, USA. This basin drains more than 500,000 km2 and includes the Reynolds Creek Watershed.

Deviation of Long-Period Tides from Equilibrium: Kinematics and Geostrophy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Egbert, Gary D.; Ray, Richard D.

2003-01-01

New empirical estimates of the long-period fortnightly (Mf) tide obtained from TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) altimeter data confirm significant basin-scale deviations from equilibrium. Elevations in the low-latitude Pacific have reduced amplitude and lag those in the Atlantic by 30 deg or more. These interbasin amplitude and phase variations are robust features that are reproduced by numerical solutions of the shallow-water equations, even for a constant-depth ocean with schematic interconnected rectangular basins. A simplified analytical model for cooscillating connected basins also reproduces the principal features observed in the empirical solutions. This simple model is largely kinematic. Zonally averaged elevations within a simple closed basin would be nearly in equilibrium with the gravitational potential, except for a constant offset required to conserve mass. With connected basins these offsets are mostly eliminated by interbasin mass flux. Because of rotation, this flux occurs mostly in a narrow boundary layer across the mouth and at the western edge of each basin, and geostrophic balance in this zone supports small residual offsets (and phase shifts) between basins. The simple model predicts that this effect should decrease roughly linearly with frequency, a result that is confirmed by numerical modeling and empirical T/P estimates of the monthly (Mm) tidal constituent. This model also explains some aspects of the anomalous nonisostatic response of the ocean to atmospheric pressure forcing at periods of around 5 days.

A large-scale simulation of climate change effects on flood regime - A case study for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dullo, T. T.; Gangrade, S.; Marshall, R.; Islam, S. R.; Ghafoor, S. K.; Kao, S. C.; Kalyanapu, A. J.

2017-12-01

The damage and cost of flooding are continuously increasing due to climate change and variability, which compels the development and advance of global flood hazard models. However, due to computational expensiveness, evaluation of large-scale and high-resolution flood regime remains a challenge. The objective of this research is to use a coupled modeling framework that consists of a dynamically downscaled suite of eleven Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, a distributed hydrologic model called DHSVM, and a computational-efficient 2-dimensional hydraulic model called Flood2D-GPU to study the impacts of climate change on flood regime in the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) River Basin. Downscaled meteorologic forcings for 40 years in the historical period (1966-2005) and 40 years in the future period (2011-2050) were used as inputs to drive the calibrated DHSVM to generate annual maximum flood hydrographs. These flood hydrographs along with 30-m resolution digital elevation and estimated surface roughness were then used by Flood2D-GPU to estimate high-resolution flood depth, velocities, duration, and regime. Preliminary results for the Conasauga river basin (an upper subbasin within ACT) indicate that seven of the eleven climate projections show an average increase of 25 km2 in flooded area (between historic and future projections). Future work will focus on illustrating the effects of climate change on flood duration and area for the entire ACT basin.

Large Spatial Scale Variability in Bathyal Macrobenthos Abundance, Biomass, α- and β-Diversity along the Mediterranean Continental Margin

PubMed Central

Baldrighi, Elisa; Lavaleye, Marc; Aliani, Stefano; Conversi, Alessandra; Manini, Elena

2014-01-01

The large-scale deep-sea biodiversity distribution of the benthic fauna was explored in the Mediterranean Sea, which can be seen as a miniature model of the oceans of the world. Within the framework of the BIOFUN project (“Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning in Contrasting Southern European Deep-sea Environments: from viruses to megafauna”), we investigated the large spatial scale variability (over >1,000 km) of the bathyal macrofauna communities that inhabit the Mediterranean basin, and their relationships with the environmental variables. The macrofauna abundance, biomass, community structure and functional diversity were analysed and the α-diversity and β-diversity were estimated across six selected slope areas at different longitudes and along three main depths. The macrobenthic standing stock and α-diversity were lower in the deep-sea sediments of the eastern Mediterranean basin, compared to the western and central basins. The macrofaunal standing stock and diversity decreased significantly from the upper bathyal to the lower bathyal slope stations. The major changes in the community composition of the higher taxa and in the trophic (functional) structure occurred at different longitudes, rather than at increasing water depth. For the β-diversity, very high dissimilarities emerged at all levels: (i) between basins; (ii) between slopes within the same basin; and (iii) between stations at different depths; this therefore demonstrates the high macrofaunal diversity of the Mediterranean basins at large spatial scales. Overall, the food sources (i.e., quantity and quality) that characterised the west, central and eastern Mediterranean basins, as well as sediment grain size, appear to influence the macrobenthic standing stock and the biodiversity along the different slope areas. PMID:25225909

Large spatial scale variability in bathyal macrobenthos abundance, biomass, α- and β-diversity along the Mediterranean continental margin.

PubMed

Baldrighi, Elisa; Lavaleye, Marc; Aliani, Stefano; Conversi, Alessandra; Manini, Elena

2014-01-01

The large-scale deep-sea biodiversity distribution of the benthic fauna was explored in the Mediterranean Sea, which can be seen as a miniature model of the oceans of the world. Within the framework of the BIOFUN project ("Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning in Contrasting Southern European Deep-sea Environments: from viruses to megafauna"), we investigated the large spatial scale variability (over >1,000 km) of the bathyal macrofauna communities that inhabit the Mediterranean basin, and their relationships with the environmental variables. The macrofauna abundance, biomass, community structure and functional diversity were analysed and the α-diversity and β-diversity were estimated across six selected slope areas at different longitudes and along three main depths. The macrobenthic standing stock and α-diversity were lower in the deep-sea sediments of the eastern Mediterranean basin, compared to the western and central basins. The macrofaunal standing stock and diversity decreased significantly from the upper bathyal to the lower bathyal slope stations. The major changes in the community composition of the higher taxa and in the trophic (functional) structure occurred at different longitudes, rather than at increasing water depth. For the β-diversity, very high dissimilarities emerged at all levels: (i) between basins; (ii) between slopes within the same basin; and (iii) between stations at different depths; this therefore demonstrates the high macrofaunal diversity of the Mediterranean basins at large spatial scales. Overall, the food sources (i.e., quantity and quality) that characterised the west, central and eastern Mediterranean basins, as well as sediment grain size, appear to influence the macrobenthic standing stock and the biodiversity along the different slope areas.

Modeling and analysis of Soil Erosion processes by the River Basins model: The Case Study of the Krivacki Potok Watershed, Montenegro

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vujacic, Dusko; Barovic, Goran; Mijanovic, Dragica; Spalevic, Velibor; Curovic, Milic; Tanaskovic, Vjekoslav; Djurovic, Nevenka

2016-04-01

The objective of this research was to study soil erosion processes in one of Northern Montenegrin watersheds, the Krivacki Potok Watershed of the Polimlje River Basin, using modeling techniques: the River Basins computer-graphic model, based on the analytical Erosion Potential Method (EPM) of Gavrilovic for calculation of runoff and soil loss. Our findings indicate a low potential of soil erosion risk, with 554 m³ yr-1 of annual sediment yield; an area-specific sediment yield of 180 m³km-2 yr-1. The calculation outcomes were validated for the entire 57 River Basins of Polimlje, through measurements of lake sediment deposition at the Potpec hydropower plant dam. According to our analysis, the Krivacki Potok drainage basin is with the relatively low sediment discharge; according to the erosion type, it is mixed erosion. The value of the Z coefficient was calculated on 0.297, what indicates that the river basin belongs to 4th destruction category (of five). The calculated peak discharge from the river basin was 73 m3s-1 for the incidence of 100 years and there is a possibility for large flood waves to appear in the studied river basin. Using the adequate computer-graphic and analytical modeling tools, we improved the knowledge on the soil erosion processes of the river basins of this part of Montenegro. The computer-graphic River Basins model of Spalevic, which is based on the EPM analytical method of Gavrilovic, is highly recommended for soil erosion modelling in other river basins of the Southeastern Europe. This is because of its reliable detection and appropriate classification of the areas affected by the soil loss caused by soil erosion, at the same time taking into consideration interactions between the various environmental elements such as Physical-Geographical Features, Climate, Geological, Pedological characteristics, including the analysis of Land Use, all calculated at the catchment scale.

High resolution modeling of reservoir storage and extent dynamics at the continental scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, S.; Pokhrel, Y. N.

2017-12-01

Over the past decade, significant progress has been made in developing reservoir schemes in large scale hydrological models to better simulate hydrological fluxes and storages in highly managed river basins. These schemes have been successfully used to study the impact of reservoir operation on global river basins. However, improvements in the existing schemes are needed for hydrological fluxes and storages, especially at the spatial resolution to be used in hyper-resolution hydrological modeling. In this study, we developed a reservoir routing scheme with explicit representation of reservoir storage and extent at the grid scale of 5km or less. Instead of setting reservoir area to a fixed value or diagnosing it using the area-storage equation, which is a commonly used approach in the existing reservoir schemes, we explicitly simulate the inundated storage and area for all grid cells that are within the reservoir extent. This approach enables a better simulation of river-floodplain-reservoir storage by considering both the natural flood and man-made reservoir storage. Results of the seasonal dynamics of reservoir storage, river discharge at the downstream of dams, and the reservoir inundation extent are evaluated with various datasets from ground-observations and satellite measurements. The new model captures the dynamics of these variables with a good accuracy for most of the large reservoirs in the western United States. It is expected that the incorporation of the newly developed reservoir scheme in large-scale land surface models (LSMs) will lead to improved simulation of river flow and terrestrial water storage in highly managed river basins.

Energy-Water-Land-Climate Nexus: Modeling Impacts from the Asset to Regional Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tidwell, V. C.; Bennett, K. E.; Middleton, R. S.; Behery, S.; Macknick, J.; Corning-Padilla, A.; Brinkman, G.; Meng, M.

2016-12-01

A critical challenge for the energy-water-land nexus is understanding and modeling the connection between the natural system—including changes in climate, land use/cover, and streamflow—and the engineered system including water for energy, agriculture, and society. Equally important is understanding the linkage across scales; that is, how impacts at the asset level aggregate to influence behavior at the local to regional scale. Toward this need, a case study was conducted featuring multi-sector and multi-scale modeling centered on the San Juan River basin (a watershed that accounts for one-tenth of the Colorado River drainage area). Simulations were driven by statistically downscaled climate data from three global climate models (emission scenario RCP 8.5) and planned growth in regional water demand. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model was fitted with a custom vegetation mortality sub-model and used to estimate tributary inflows to the San Juan River and estimate reservoir evaporation. San Juan River operations, including releases from Navajo Reservoir, were subsequently modeled using RiverWare to estimate impacts on water deliveries out to the year 2100. Major water demands included two large coal-fired power plants, a local electric utility, river-side irrigation, the Navajo Indian Irrigation Project and instream flows managed for endangered aquatic species. Also tracked were basin exports, including water (downstream flows to the Colorado River and interbasin transfers to the Rio Grande) and interstate electric power transmission. Implications for the larger western electric grid were assessed using PLEXOS, a sub-hourly dispatch, electric production-cost model. Results highlight asset-level interactions at the energy-water-land nexus driven by climate and population dynamics; specifically, growing vulnerabilities to shorted water deliveries. Analyses also explored linkages across geographic scales from the San Juan to the larger Colorado River and Rio Grande basins as well as the western power grid.

Diagnosing isopycnal diffusivity in an eddying, idealized midlatitude ocean basin via Lagrangian, in Situ, Global, High-Performance Particle Tracking (LIGHT)

DOE PAGES

Wolfram, Phillip J.; Ringler, Todd D.; Maltrud, Mathew E.; ...

2015-08-01

Isopycnal diffusivity due to stirring by mesoscale eddies in an idealized, wind-forced, eddying, midlatitude ocean basin is computed using Lagrangian, in Situ, Global, High-Performance Particle Tracking (LIGHT). Simulation is performed via LIGHT within the Model for Prediction across Scales Ocean (MPAS-O). Simulations are performed at 4-, 8-, 16-, and 32-km resolution, where the first Rossby radius of deformation (RRD) is approximately 30 km. Scalar and tensor diffusivities are estimated at each resolution based on 30 ensemble members using particle cluster statistics. Each ensemble member is composed of 303 665 particles distributed across five potential density surfaces. Diffusivity dependence upon modelmore » resolution, velocity spatial scale, and buoyancy surface is quantified and compared with mixing length theory. The spatial structure of diffusivity ranges over approximately two orders of magnitude with values of O(10 5) m 2 s –1 in the region of western boundary current separation to O(10 3) m 2 s –1 in the eastern region of the basin. Dominant mixing occurs at scales twice the size of the first RRD. Model resolution at scales finer than the RRD is necessary to obtain sufficient model fidelity at scales between one and four RRD to accurately represent mixing. Mixing length scaling with eddy kinetic energy and the Lagrangian time scale yield mixing efficiencies that typically range between 0.4 and 0.8. In conclusion, a reduced mixing length in the eastern region of the domain relative to the west suggests there are different mixing regimes outside the baroclinic jet region.« less

Estimating natural monthly streamflows in California and the likelihood of anthropogenic modification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carlisle, Daren M.; Wolock, David M.; Howard, Jeannette K.; Grantham, Theodore E.; Fesenmyer, Kurt; Wieczorek, Michael

2016-12-12

Because natural patterns of streamflow are a fundamental property of the health of streams, there is a critical need to quantify the degree to which human activities have modified natural streamflows. A requirement for assessing streamflow modification in a given stream is a reliable estimate of flows expected in the absence of human influences. Although there are many techniques to predict streamflows in specific river basins, there is a lack of approaches for making predictions of natural conditions across large regions and over many decades. In this study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with The Nature Conservancy and Trout Unlimited, the primary objective was to develop empirical models that predict natural (that is, unaffected by land use or water management) monthly streamflows from 1950 to 2012 for all stream segments in California. Models were developed using measured streamflow data from the existing network of streams where daily flow monitoring occurs, but where the drainage basins have minimal human influences. Widely available data on monthly weather conditions and the physical attributes of river basins were used as predictor variables. Performance of regional-scale models was comparable to that of published mechanistic models for specific river basins, indicating the models can be reliably used to estimate natural monthly flows in most California streams. A second objective was to develop a model that predicts the likelihood that streams experience modified hydrology. New models were developed to predict modified streamflows at 558 streamflow monitoring sites in California where human activities affect the hydrology, using basin-scale geospatial indicators of land use and water management. Performance of these models was less reliable than that for the natural-flow models, but results indicate the models could be used to provide a simple screening tool for identifying, across the State of California, which streams may be experiencing anthropogenic flow modification.

Initiation, evolution and extinction of pull-apart basins: Implications for opening of the Gulf of California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Wijk, J.; Axen, G.; Abera, R.

2017-11-01

We present a model for the origin, crustal architecture, and evolution of pull-apart basins. The model is based on results of three-dimensional upper crustal elastic models of deformation, field observations, and fault theory, and is generally applicable to basin-scale features, but predicts some intra-basin structural features. Geometric differences between pull-apart basins are inherited from the initial geometry of the strike-slip fault step-over, which results from the forming phase of the strike-slip fault system. As strike-slip motion accumulates, pull-apart basins are stationary with respect to underlying basement, and the fault tips propagate beyond the rift basin, increasing the distance between the fault tips and pull-apart basin center. Because uplift is concentrated near the fault tips, the sediment source areas may rejuvenate and migrate over time. Rift flank uplift results from compression along the flank of the basin. With increasing strike-slip movement the basins deepen and lengthen. Field studies predict that pull-apart basins become extinct when an active basin-crossing fault forms; this is the most likely fate of pull-apart basins, because basin-bounding strike-slip systems tend to straighten and connect as they evolve. The models show that larger length-to-width ratios with overlapping faults are least likely to form basin-crossing faults, and pull-apart basins with this geometry are thus most likely to progress to continental rupture. In the Gulf of California, larger length-to-width ratios are found in the southern Gulf, which is the region where continental breakup occurred rapidly. The initial geometry in the northern Gulf of California and Salton Trough at 6 Ma may have been one of widely-spaced master strike-slip faults (lower length-to-width ratios), which our models suggest inhibits continental breakup and favors straightening of the strike-slip system by formation of basin-crossing faults within the step-over, as began 1.2 Ma when the San Jacinto and Elsinore - Cerro Prieto fault systems formed.

A Large Eddy Simulation Study of Heat Entrainment under Sea Ice in the Canadian Arctic Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramudu, E.; Yang, D.; Gelderloos, R.; Meneveau, C. V.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2016-12-01

Sea ice cover in the Arctic has declined rapidly in recent decades. The much faster than projected retreat suggests that climate models may be missing some key processes, or that these processes are not accurately represented. The entrainment of heat from the mixed layer by small-scale turbulence is one such process. In the Canadian Basin of the Arctic Ocean, relatively warm Pacific Summer Water (PSW) resides at the base of the mixed layer. With an increasing influx of PSW, the upper ocean in the Canadian Basin has been getting warmer and fresher since the early 2000s. While studies show a correlation between sea ice reduction and an increase in PSW temperature, others argue that PSW intrusions in the Canadian Basin cannot affect sea ice thickness because the strongly-stratified halocline prevents heat from the PSW layer from being entrained into the mixed layer and up to the basal ice surface. In this study, we try to resolve this conundrum by simulating the turbulent entrainment of heat from the PSW layer to a moving basal ice surface using large eddy simulation (LES). The LES model is based on a high-fidelity spectral approach on horizontal planes, and includes a Lagrangian dynamic subgrid model that reduces the need for empirical inputs for subgrid-scale viscosities and diffusivities. This LES tool allows us to investigate physical processes in the mixed layer at a very fine scale. We focus our study on summer conditions, when ice is melting, and show for a range of ice-drift velocities, halocline temperatures, and halocline salinity gradients characteristic of the Canadian Basin how much heat can be entrained from the PSW layer to the sea ice. Our results can be used to improve parameterizations of vertical heat flux under sea ice in coarse-grid ocean and climate models.

Assessment of basin-scale hydrologic impacts of CO2 sequestration, Illinois basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Person, M.; Banerjee, A.; Rupp, J.; Medina, C.; Lichtner, P.; Gable, C.; Pawar, R.; Celia, M.; McIntosh, J.; Bense, V.

2010-01-01

Idealized, basin-scale sharp-interface models of CO2 injection were constructed for the Illinois basin. Porosity and permeability were decreased with depth within the Mount Simon Formation. Eau Claire confining unit porosity and permeability were kept fixed. We used 726 injection wells located near 42 power plants to deliver 80 million metric tons of CO2/year. After 100 years of continuous injection, deviatoric fluid pressures varied between 5.6 and 18 MPa across central and southern part of the Illinois basin. Maximum deviatoric pressure reached about 50% of lithostatic levels to the south. The pressure disturbance (>0.03 MPa) propagated 10-25 km away from the injection wells resulting in significant well-well pressure interference. These findings are consistent with single-phase analytical solutions of injection. The radial footprint of the CO2 plume at each well was only 0.5-2 km after 100 years of injection. Net lateral brine displacement was insignificant due to increasing radial distance from injection well and leakage across the Eau Claire confining unit. On geologic time scales CO2 would migrate northward at a rate of about 6 m/1000 years. Because of paleo-seismic events in this region (M5.5-M7.5), care should be taken to avoid high pore pressures in the southern Illinois basin. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Using a basin-scale hydrological model to estimate crop transpiration and soil evaporation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kite, G.

2000-03-01

Increasing populations and expectations, declining crop yields and the resulting increased competition for water necesitate improvements in irrigation management and productivity. A key factor in defining agricultural productivity is to be able to simulate soil evaporation and crop transpiration. In agribusiness terms, crop transpiration is a useful process while soil and open-water evaporations are wasteful processes. In this study a distributed hydrological model was used to compute daily evaporation and transpiration for a variety of crops and other land covers within the 17,200 km 2 Gediz Basin in western Turkey. The model, SLURP, describes the complete hydrological cycle for each land cover within a series of sub-basins including all dams, reservoirs, regulators and irrigation schemes in the basin. The sub-basins and land covers are defined by analysing a digital elevation model and NOAA AVHRR satellite data. In this study, the model uses the FAO implementation of the Penman-Monteith equation to simulate soil evaporation and crop transpiration. The results of the model runs provide time series of data on streamflow at many points along the river system, abstractions and return flows from crops within the irrigation schemes and areally distributed soil evaporation and crop transpiration across the entire basin on each day of an 11 year period. The results show that evaporation and transpiration vary widely across the basin on any one day and over the irrigation season and can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of the various irrigation strategies used in the basin. The advantages of using such a model as compared to deriving evapotranspiration from satellite data are that the model obtains results for each day of an indefinitely long period, as opposed to occasional snapshots, and can also be used to simulate alternate scenarios.

Multiscale verification of water fluxes and states over Pan European river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaniego, Luis; Rakovec, Oldrich; Schaefer, David; Kumar, Rohini; Cuntz, Matthias; Mai, Juliane; Craven, John

2014-05-01

Developing the ability to predict the movement of water at regional scales with a spatial resolution from 1 to 5 km is one of grand challenges in land surface modelling. Coping with this grand challenge implies that land surface models (LSM) should be able to make reliable predictions across locations and/or scales other than those used for parameter estimation. Validating LSM only against integral basin response such as streamflow is a necessary but not a sufficient condition to warranty the appropriate partitioning of incoming precipitation and radiation into different water budget components. Extensive in-situ observations of state variables (e.g., soil moisture), on the contrary, are not feasible at regional scales. Remote sensing has been considered as the solution for this dilemma because they constitute a cost-effective source of information and provide a valuable insight about the spatio-temporal patterns of state variables. Their main disadvantage is their large uncertainty. The mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM 5.0 http://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=31389) is used in this study to estimate uncalibrated water fluxes and states and then to investigate which are the effects of conditioning this model with freely available multiple-scale data sets. The main characteristic of mHM is the treatment of the sub-grid variability of input variables and model parameters which clearly distinguishes this model from existing precipitation-runoff models or land surface models. It uses a Multiscale Parameter Regionalization (MPR) to account for the sub-grid variability and to avoid systematic re-calibration. Another key characteristic of mHM is that it can simultaneously estimate fluxes in nested-scales and/or in multiple basins keeping its global parameters (i.e., regionalization coefficients) unaltered across scales and basins. These key characteristics of the model would allow to assimilate disparate sources of information such as satellite data, streamflow gauging stations, and eddy covariance data at their native resolutions. To address these objectives, mHM was set up over more than 280 Pan-European river basins. This model was forced with the gridded EOBS data set (25x25 km2) obtained from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset projec. The required morphological data was derived from the FAO soil map (1:5,000,000), the SRTM DEM (500 m) and three CORINE land cover scenes (500 m). MODIS LAI (NASA) was used to estimate a dynamic LAI model for every land cover class. mHM simulations were obtained at 25 km spatial resolution for the period 1950-2012. The multi-scale verification of simulated water fluxes was carried out using observation data sets such as: latent heat flux obtained from more than 150 eddy flux stations (FLUXNET), streamflow in more than 250 gauging stations (GRDC), and the remotely sensed Earth's gravity field anomalies retrieved by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) release 05 (Landerer and Swenson, 2012, WRR). The former are used a proxy of the total water storage anomalies in mHM. In Germany, over 1000 weakly groundwater stage stations were used to evaluate and/or condition groundwater level anomalies. mHM water storage anomalies simulated over Europe from 2003 to 2012 at monthly time step were compared with those of GRACE. Results lead to the conclusion that mHM water fluxes are robust since less than 25% of river basins exhibit Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSE) of 0.5 or less. Likewise, the soil moisture and groundwater anomalies, specially in severe drought years such as 2003, exhibit a large spatial correlation with those obtained from remotely sensed products. Comparison against observed latent heat indicates that the dynamics and magnitude of the simulated values were well captured by the model at most locations. In general, deficient model performance (NSE

Biomass production in the Lower Mississippi River Basin: Mitigating associated nutrient and sediment discharge to the Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

Ha, Miae; Zhang, Zhonglong; Wu, May

2018-04-24

A watershed model was developed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) that simulates nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loadings in the Lower Mississippi River Basin (LMRB). The LMRB SWAT model was calibrated and validated using 21 years of observed flow, sediment, and water-quality data. The baseline model results indicate that agricultural lands within the Lower Mississippi River Basin (LMRB) are the dominant sources of nitrogen and phosphorus discharging into the Gulf of Mexico. The model was further used to evaluate the impact of biomass production, in the presence of riparian buffers in the LMRB, on suspended-sediment and nutrient loading discharge from the Mississippi River into the Gulf of Mexico. The interplay among land use, riparian buffers, crop type, land slope, water quality, and hydrology were anlyzed at various scales. Implementing a riparian buffer in the dominant agricultural region within the LMRB could reduce suspended sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loadings at the regional scale by up to 65%, 38%, and 39%, respectively. Implementation of this land management practice can reduce the suspended-sediment content and improve the water quality of the discharge from the LMRB into the Gulf of Mexico and support the potential production of bioenergy and bio-products within the Mississippi River Basin. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Advance and application of the stratigraphic simulation model 2D- SedFlux: From tank experiment to geological scale simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubo, Yu'suke; Syvitski, James P. M.; Hutton, Eric W. H.; Paola, Chris

2005-07-01

The stratigraphic simulation model 2D- SedFlux is further developed and applied to a turbidite experiment in a subsiding minibasin. The new module dynamically simulates evolving hyperpycnal flows and their interaction with the basin bed. Comparison between the numerical results and the experimental results verifies the ability of 2D- SedFlux to predict the distribution of the sediments and the possible feedback from subsidence. The model was subsequently applied to geological-scale minibasins such as are located in the Gulf of Mexico. Distance from the sediment source is determined to be more influential than the sediment entrapment in upstream minibasin. The results suggest that efficiency of sediment entrapment by a basin was not influenced by the distance from the sediment source.

The evolution of impact basins - Viscous relaxation of topographic relief. [for lunar surface modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Solomon, S. C.; Comer, R. P.; Head, J. W.

1982-01-01

A topographic profile of the young large lunar basin, Orientale, is presented in order to examine the effects of viscous relaxation on basin topography. Analytical models for viscous flow are considered, showing a wavelength-dependence of time constants for viscous decay on the decrease in viscosity with depth and on the extent of the isostatic compensation of the initial topography. Lunar rheological models which are developed include a half-space model for uniform Newtonian viscosity, density, and gravitational acceleration, a layer over inviscid half space model with material inviscid over geological time scales, and a layer with isostatic compensation where a uniformly viscous layer overlies an inviscid half space of higher density. Greater roughness is concluded, and has been observed, on the moon's dark side due to continued lower temperatures since the time of heavy bombardment.

Scale dependant compensational stacking of channelized sedimentary deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Straub, K. M.; Hajek, E. A.

2010-12-01

Compensational stacking, the tendency for sediment transport system to preferentially fill topographic lows, thus smoothing out topographic relief is a concept used in the interpretation of the stratigraphic record. Recently, a metric was developed to quantify the strength of compensation in sedimentary basins by comparing observed stacking patterns to what would be expected from simple, uncorrelated stacking. This method uses the rate of decay of spatial variability in sedimentation between picked depositional horizons with increasing vertical stratigraphic averaging distance. We explore how this metric varies as a function of stratigraphic scale using data from physical experiments, stratigraphy exposed in outcrops and numerical models. In an experiment conducted at Tulane University’s Sediment Dynamics Laboratory, the topography of a channelized delta formed by weakly cohesive sediment was monitored along flow-perpendicular transects at a high temporal resolution relative to channel kinematics. Over the course of this experiment a uniform relative subsidence pattern, designed to isolate autogenic processes, resulted in the construction of a stratigraphic package that is 25 times as thick as the depth of the experimental channels. We observe a scale-dependence on the compensational stacking of deposits set by the system’s avulsion time-scale. Above the avulsion time-scale deposits stack purely compensationally, but below this time-scale deposits stack somewhere between randomly and deterministically. The well-exposed Ferris Formation (Cretaceous/Paleogene, Hanna Basin, Wyoming, USA) also shows scale-dependant stratigraphic organization which appears to be set by an avulsion time-scale. Finally, we utilize simple object-based models to illustrate how channel avulsions influence compensation in alluvial basins.

Brugga basin's TACD Model Adaptation to current GIS PCRaster 4.1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez Rozo, Nicolas Antonio; Corzo Perez, Gerald Augusto; Santos Granados, Germán Ricardo

2017-04-01

The process-oriented catchment model TACD (Tracer-Aided Catchment model - Distributed) was developed in the Brugga Basin (Dark Forest, Germany) with a modular structure in the Geographic Information System PCRaster Version 2, in order to dynamically model the natural processes of a complex Basin, such as rainfall, air temperature, solar radiation, evapotranspiration and flow routing among others. Further research and application on this model has been done, such as adapting other meso-scaled basins and adding erosion processes in the hydrological model. However, TACD model is computationally intensive. This has made it not efficient on large and well discretized river basins. Aswell, the current version is not compatible with latest PCRaster Version 4.1, which offers new capabilities on 64-bit hardware architecture, hydraulic calculation improvements, in maps creation, some error and bug fixes. The current work studied and adapted TACD model into the latest GIS PCRaster Version 4.1. This was done by editing the original scripts, replacing deprecated functionalities without losing correctness of the TACD model. The correctness of the adapted TACD model was verified by using the original study case of the Brugga Basin and comparing the adapted model results with the original model results by Stefan Roser in 2001. Small differences were found due to the fact that some hydraulic and hydrological routines were optimized since version 2 of GIS PCRaster. Therefore, the hydraulic and hydrological processes are well represented. With this new working model, further research and development on current topics like uncertainty analysis, GCM downscaling techniques and spatio-temporal modelling are encouraged.

Applying Multimodel Ensemble from Regional Climate Models for Improving Runoff Projections on Semiarid Regions of Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia Galiano, S. G.; Olmos, P.; Giraldo Osorio, J. D.

2015-12-01

In the Mediterranean area, significant changes on temperature and precipitation are expected throughout the century. These trends could exacerbate the existing conditions in regions already vulnerable to climatic variability, reducing the water availability. Improving knowledge about plausible impacts of climate change on water cycle processes at basin scale, is an important step for building adaptive capacity to the impacts in this region, where severe water shortages are expected for the next decades. RCMs ensemble in combination with distributed hydrological models with few parameters, constitutes a valid and robust methodology to increase the reliability of climate and hydrological projections. For reaching this objective, a novel methodology for building Regional Climate Models (RCMs) ensembles of meteorological variables (rainfall an temperatures), was applied. RCMs ensembles are justified for increasing the reliability of climate and hydrological projections. The evaluation of RCMs goodness-of-fit to build the ensemble is based on empirical probability density functions (PDF) extracted from both RCMs dataset and a highly resolution gridded observational dataset, for the time period 1961-1990. The applied method is considering the seasonal and annual variability of the rainfall and temperatures. The RCMs ensembles constitute the input to a distributed hydrological model at basin scale, for assessing the runoff projections. The selected hydrological model is presenting few parameters in order to reduce the uncertainties involved. The study basin corresponds to a head basin of Segura River Basin, located in the South East of Spain. The impacts on runoff and its trend from observational dataset and climate projections, were assessed. Considering the control period 1961-1990, plausible significant decreases in runoff for the time period 2021-2050, were identified.

Surface Freshwater Storage and Variability in the Amazon Basin from Multi-Satellite Observations, 1993-2007

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Papa, Fabrice; Frappart, Frederic; Guntner, Andreas; Prigent, Catherine; Aires, Filipe; Getirana, Augusto; Maurer, Raffael

2013-01-01

The amount of water stored and moving through the surface water bodies of large river basins (river, floodplains, wetlands) plays a major role in the global water and biochemical cycles and is a critical parameter for water resources management. However, the spatio-temporal variations of these freshwater reservoirs are still widely unknown at the global scale. Here, we propose a hypsographic curve approach to estimate surface freshwater storage variations over the Amazon basin combining surface water extent from a multi-satellite-technique with topographic data from the Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) from Advance Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER). Monthly surface water storage variations for 1993-2007 are presented, showing a strong seasonal and interannual variability, and are evaluated against in situ river discharge and precipitation. The basin-scale mean annual amplitude of approx. 1200 cu km is in the range of previous estimates and contributes to about half of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) total water storage variations. For the first time, we map the surface water volume anomaly during the extreme droughts of 1997 (October-November) and 2005 (September-October) and found that during these dry events the water stored in the river and flood-plains of the Amazon basin was, respectively, approx. 230 (approx. 40%) and 210 (approx. 50%) cu km below the 1993-2007 average. This new 15year data set of surface water volume represents an unprecedented source of information for future hydrological or climate modeling of the Amazon. It is also a first step toward the development of such database at the global scale.

Evapotranspiration seasonality across the Amazon Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eiji Maeda, Eduardo; Ma, Xuanlong; Wagner, Fabien Hubert; Kim, Hyungjun; Oki, Taikan; Eamus, Derek; Huete, Alfredo

2017-06-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) of Amazon forests is a main driver of regional climate patterns and an important indicator of ecosystem functioning. Despite its importance, the seasonal variability of ET over Amazon forests, and its relationship with environmental drivers, is still poorly understood. In this study, we carry out a water balance approach to analyse seasonal patterns in ET and their relationships with water and energy drivers over five sub-basins across the Amazon Basin. We used in situ measurements of river discharge, and remotely sensed estimates of terrestrial water storage, rainfall, and solar radiation. We show that the characteristics of ET seasonality in all sub-basins differ in timing and magnitude. The highest mean annual ET was found in the northern Rio Negro basin (˜ 1497 mm year-1) and the lowest values in the Solimões River basin (˜ 986 mm year-1). For the first time in a basin-scale study, using observational data, we show that factors limiting ET vary across climatic gradients in the Amazon, confirming local-scale eddy covariance studies. Both annual mean and seasonality in ET are driven by a combination of energy and water availability, as neither rainfall nor radiation alone could explain patterns in ET. In southern basins, despite seasonal rainfall deficits, deep root water uptake allows increasing rates of ET during the dry season, when radiation is usually higher than in the wet season. We demonstrate contrasting ET seasonality with satellite greenness across Amazon forests, with strong asynchronous relationships in ever-wet watersheds, and positive correlations observed in seasonally dry watersheds. Finally, we compared our results with estimates obtained by two ET models, and we conclude that neither of the two tested models could provide a consistent representation of ET seasonal patterns across the Amazon.

Hydrological responses to dynamically and statistically downscaled climate model output

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilby, R.L.; Hay, L.E.; Gutowski, W.J.; Arritt, R.W.; Takle, E.S.; Pan, Z.; Leavesley, G.H.; Clark, M.P.

2000-01-01

Daily rainfall and surface temperature series were simulated for the Animas River basin, Colorado using dynamically and statistically downscaled output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis. A distributed hydrological model was then applied to the downscaled data. Relative to raw NCEP output, downscaled climate variables provided more realistic stimulations of basin scale hydrology. However, the results highlight the sensitivity of modeled processes to the choice of downscaling technique, and point to the need for caution when interpreting future hydrological scenarios.

Development of the Hydrological-Ecological Integrated watershed Flow Model (HEIFLOW): an application to the Heihe River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Y.; Zheng, Y.; Zheng, C.; Han, F., Sr.

2017-12-01

Physically based and fully-distributed integrated hydrological models (IHMs) can quantitatively depict hydrological processes, both surface and subsurface, with sufficient spatial and temporal details. However, the complexity involved in pre-processing data and setting up models seriously hindered the wider application of IHMs in scientific research and management practice. This study introduces our design and development of Visual HEIFLOW, hereafter referred to as VHF, a comprehensive graphical data processing and modeling system for integrated hydrological simulation. The current version of VHF has been structured to accommodate an IHM named HEIFLOW (Hydrological-Ecological Integrated watershed-scale FLOW model). HEIFLOW is a model being developed by the authors, which has all typical elements of physically based and fully-distributed IHMs. It is based on GSFLOW, a representative integrated surface water-groundwater model developed by USGS. HEIFLOW provides several ecological modules that enable to simulate growth cycle of general vegetation and special plants (maize and populus euphratica). VHF incorporates and streamlines all key steps of the integrated modeling, and accommodates all types of GIS data necessary to hydrological simulation. It provides a GIS-based data processing framework to prepare an IHM for simulations, and has functionalities to flexibly display and modify model features (e.g., model grids, streams, boundary conditions, observational sites, etc.) and their associated data. It enables visualization and various spatio-temporal analyses of all model inputs and outputs at different scales (i.e., computing unit, sub-basin, basin, or user-defined spatial extent). The above system features, as well as many others, can significantly reduce the difficulty and time cost of building and using a complex IHM. The case study in the Heihe River Basin demonstrated the applicability of VHF for large scale integrated SW-GW modeling. Visualization and spatial-temporal analysis of the modeling results by HEIFLOW greatly facilitates our understanding on the complicated hydrologic cycle and relationship among the hydrological and ecological variables in the study area, and provides insights into the regional water resources management.

Deep versus shallow controlling factors of the regional thermal field in the Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin (Arctic Canada)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheck-Wenderoth, M.; Sippel, J.; Lewerenz, B.

2011-12-01

The present-day temperature distribution of the Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin as observed in boreholes indicates large-scale thermal anomalies which have been related to specific tectonic domains and heat transported by convection along major discontinuities (Chen et al., 2008). We have integrated seismic and well data into a crust-scale 3D structural model of the basin, which we have additionally constrained by 3D gravity modelling. This structural model is composed of seven Mesozoic-Cenozoic tectonostratigraphic units which - as a result of a complex foreland depositional and erosional history - tend to be younger, less compacted, and thus less thermally conductive towards the north. The underlying continental crust comprises a low-density upper part (2720 kg/m3 ) and a moderately dense lower part (2850 kg/m3), and it thins considerably towards the north where it passes over to oceanic crust (2900 kg/m2 ). We use the structural model to calculate the 3D conductive thermal field of the basin based on a Finite-Element method, thereby taking one step further towards a quantification of heat transporting processes in this petroliferous region. For the validation of the modelling results, we make use of public domain temperature data from more than 230 wells reaching depths of up to 5000 m. Thermal conductivities are assigned to the different units according to available data sets including also the observed lithology-dependent relationship between conductivity and porosity in the region. The upper boundary condition for the thermal calculations is provided by the well-known depth distribution of the base of permafrost (0 °C isotherm). Assuming a constant heat flow of 30 mW/m2 at the Moho, we find that the modelled temperatures are widely consistent with the observed temperatures in most parts of the basin. Only where large tectonic discontinuities structure the margins of the basin, the misfits are considerable, thus indicating convective heat transport to be an important process. We discuss the predicted temperature variations with respect to the structure of the basin including stratigraphic and tectonic domains, the inferred depth of the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary, and the distribution of permafrost. Chen, Z., Osadetz, K.G., Issler, D.R., Grasby, S.E., 2008. Hydrocarbon migration detected by regional temperature field variations, Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin, Canada. AAPG Bulletin, 92(12): 1639-1653.

Methane emissions from floodplains in the Amazon Basin: towards a process-based model for global applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ringeval, B.; Houweling, S.; van Bodegom, P. M.; Spahni, R.; van Beek, R.; Joos, F.; Röckmann, T.

2013-10-01

Tropical wetlands are estimated to represent about 50% of the natural wetland emissions and explain a large fraction of the observed CH4 variability on time scales ranging from glacial-interglacial cycles to the currently observed year-to-year variability. Despite their importance, however, tropical wetlands are poorly represented in global models aiming to predict global CH4 emissions. This study documents the first regional-scale, process-based model of CH4 emissions from tropical floodplains. The LPX-Bern Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPX hereafter) was modified to represent floodplain hydrology, vegetation and associated CH4 emissions. The extent of tropical floodplains was prescribed using output from the spatially-explicit hydrology model PCR-GLOBWB. We introduced new Plant Functional Types (PFTs) that explicitly represent floodplain vegetation. The PFT parameterizations were evaluated against available remote sensing datasets (GLC2000 land cover and MODIS Net Primary Productivity). Simulated CH4 flux densities were evaluated against field observations and regional flux inventories. Simulated CH4 emissions at Amazon Basin scale were compared to model simulations performed in the WETCHIMP intercomparison project. We found that LPX simulated CH4 flux densities are in reasonable agreement with observations at the field scale but with a~tendency to overestimate the flux observed at specific sites. In addition, the model did not reproduce between-site variations or between-year variations within a site. Unfortunately, site informations are too limited to attest or disprove some model features. At the Amazon Basin scale, our results underline the large uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions. In particular, uncertainties in floodplain extent (i.e., difference between GLC2000 and PCR-GLOBWB output) modulate the simulated emissions by a factor of about 2. Our best estimates, using PCR-GLOBWB in combination with GLC2000, lead to simulated Amazon-integrated emissions of 44.4 ± 4.8 Tg yr-1. Additionally, the LPX emissions are highly sensitive to vegetation distribution. Two simulations with the same mean PFT cover, but different spatial distributions of grasslands within the basin modulated emissions by about 20%. Correcting the LPX simulated NPP using MODIS reduces the Amazon emissions by 11.3%. Finally, due to an intrinsic limitation of LPX to account for seasonality in floodplain extent, the model failed to reproduce the seasonality in CH4 emissions. The Inter Annual Variability (IAV) of the emissions increases by 90% if the IAV in floodplain extent is account for, but still remains lower than in most of WETCHIMP models. While our model includes more mechanisms specific to tropical floodplains, we were unable to reduce the uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions of the Amazon Basin. Our results stress the need for more research to constrain floodplain CH4 emissions and their temporal variability.

The Role of Rough Topography in Mediating Impacts of Bottom Drag in Eddying Ocean Circulation Models.

PubMed

Trossman, David S; Arbic, Brian K; Straub, David N; Richman, James G; Chassignet, Eric P; Wallcraft, Alan J; Xu, Xiaobiao

2017-08-01

Motivated by the substantial sensitivity of eddies in two-layer quasi-geostrophic (QG) turbulence models to the strength of bottom drag, this study explores the sensitivity of eddies in more realistic ocean general circulation model (OGCM) simulations to bottom drag strength. The OGCM results are interpreted using previous results from horizontally homogeneous, two-layer, flat-bottom, f-plane, doubly periodic QG turbulence simulations and new results from two-layer β -plane QG turbulence simulations run in a basin geometry with both flat and rough bottoms. Baroclinicity in all of the simulations varies greatly with drag strength, with weak drag corresponding to more barotropic flow and strong drag corresponding to more baroclinic flow. The sensitivity of the baroclinicity in the QG basin simulations to bottom drag is considerably reduced, however, when rough topography is used in lieu of a flat bottom. Rough topography reduces the sensitivity of the eddy kinetic energy amplitude and horizontal length scales in the QG basin simulations to bottom drag to an even greater degree. The OGCM simulation behavior is qualitatively similar to that in the QG rough bottom basin simulations in that baroclinicity is more sensitive to bottom drag strength than are eddy amplitudes or horizontal length scales. Rough topography therefore appears to mediate the sensitivity of eddies in models to the strength of bottom drag. The sensitivity of eddies to parameterized topographic internal lee wave drag, which has recently been introduced into some OGCMs, is also briefly discussed. Wave drag acts like a strong bottom drag in that it increases the baroclinicity of the flow, without strongly affecting eddy horizontal length scales.

Pluviometric characterization of the Coca river basin by using a stochastic rainfall model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Zeas, Dunia; Chávez-Jiménez, Adriadna; Coello-Rubio, Xavier; Correa, Ángel; Martínez-Codina, Ángela

2014-05-01

An adequate design of the hydraulic infrastructures, as well as, the prediction and simulation of a river basin require historical records with a greater temporal and spatial resolution. However, the lack of an extensive network of precipitation data, the short time scale data and the incomplete information provided by the available rainfall stations limit the analysis and design of complex hydraulic engineering systems. As a consequence, it is necessary to develop new quantitative tools in order to face this obstacle imposed by ungauged or poorly gauged basins. In this context, the use of a spatial-temporal rainfall model allows to simulate the historical behavior of the precipitation and at the same time, to obtain long-term synthetic series that preserve the extremal behavior. This paper provides a characterization of the precipitation in the Coca river basin located in Ecuador by using RainSim V3, a robust and well tested stochastic rainfall model based on a spatial-temporal Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses process. A preliminary consistency analysis of the historical rainfall data available has been done in order to identify climatic regions with similar precipitation behavior patterns. Mean and maximum yearly and monthly fields of precipitation of high resolution spaced grids have been obtained through the use of interpolation techniques. According to the climatological similarity, long time series of daily temporal resolution of precipitation have been generated in order to evaluate the model skill in capturing the structure of daily observed precipitation. The results show a good performance of the model in reproducing very well the gross statistics, including the extreme values of rainfall at daily scale. The spatial pattern represented by the observed and simulated precipitation fields highlights the existence of two important regions characterized by different pluviometric comportment, with lower precipitation in the upper part of the basin and higher precipitation in the lower part of the basin.

The Hydroclimatic Response of the Whitewater River Basin: Influence of Groundwater Time Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beeson, P. C.; Springer, E. P.; Duffy, C. J.

2003-12-01

A near-surface groundwater model was developed to assess the impact of land use and climate variability on the overall water budget of the Whitewater River Basin. The watershed is located in southeastern Kansas within the ARM-SGP as part of the DOE Water Cycle Pilot Study. The Whitewater River Basin has an area of 1,100 square-kilometers, an elevation range of 380 - 470m (amsl), and an average annual precipitation of 858 millimeters. The approach presented here attempts to examine the importance of groundwater in the water budget and hydroclimatic response at the river basin scale. In order to identify the time scales of groundwater in this system, time series and geospatial analyses were used to identify significant spatial structure and dominant temporal modes in the climate, runoff and groundwater response. In this research, we show that the time scales of groundwater baseflow to the river network are proportional to drainage density and position in the hydrologic landscape. The concept of a hydrologic landscape (Winter, JAWRA, April 2001) defines three zones: recharge (upland), translation (intervening steep slopes), and discharge (lowland), and the hydrologic landscape is useful for standardizing the evaluation of physical properties within any watershed. Singular spectrum analysis was used for a 50-year simulation to determine dominant modes and time scales for the hydrologic landscape units in the Whitewater River Basin. We found that the time scale of groundwater baseflow response increases with increasing drainage density. The sensitivity of this response is important to understand and close the water budget for a river basin through observation network design. The effects of climate forcing, both precipitation and evapotranspiration, can be seen through the hydrologic landscapes and channel networks by changes in the baseflow response time. Los Alamos National Laboratory, an affirmative action/equal opportunity employer, is operated by the University of California for the U.S. Department of Energy under contract W-7405-ENG-36.

Accounting for rainfall spatial variability in the prediction of flash floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saharia, Manabendra; Kirstetter, Pierre-Emmanuel; Gourley, Jonathan J.; Hong, Yang; Vergara, Humberto; Flamig, Zachary L.

2017-04-01

Flash floods are a particularly damaging natural hazard worldwide in terms of both fatalities and property damage. In the United States, the lack of a comprehensive database that catalogues information related to flash flood timing, location, causative rainfall, and basin geomorphology has hindered broad characterization studies. First a representative and long archive of more than 15,000 flooding events during 2002-2011 is used to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of flash floods. We also derive large number of spatially distributed geomorphological and climatological parameters such as basin area, mean annual precipitation, basin slope etc. to identify static basin characteristics that influence flood response. For the same period, the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) has produced a decadal archive of Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) radar-only precipitation rates at 1-km spatial resolution with 5-min temporal resolution. This provides an unprecedented opportunity to analyze the impact of event-level precipitation variability on flooding using a big data approach. To analyze the impact of sub-basin scale rainfall spatial variability on flooding, certain indices such as the first and second scaled moment of rainfall, horizontal gap, vertical gap etc. are computed from the MRMS dataset. Finally, flooding characteristics such as rise time, lag time, and peak discharge are linked to derived geomorphologic, climatologic, and rainfall indices to identify basin characteristics that drive flash floods. The database has been subjected to rigorous quality control by accounting for radar beam height and percentage snow in basins. So far studies involving rainfall variability indices have only been performed on a case study basis, and a large scale approach is expected to provide a deeper insight into how sub-basin scale precipitation variability affects flooding. Finally, these findings are validated using the National Weather Service storm reports and a historical flood fatalities database. This analysis framework will serve as a baseline for evaluating distributed hydrologic model simulations such as the Flooded Locations And Simulated Hydrographs Project (FLASH) (http://flash.ou.edu).

Chapter 44: Geology and petroleum potential of the Lincoln Sea Basin, offshore North Greenland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sorensen, K.; Gautier, D.; Pitman, Janet K.; Ruth, Jackson H.; Dahl-Jensen, T.

2011-01-01

A seismic refraction line crossing the Lincoln Sea was acquired in 2006. It proves the existence of a deep sedimentary basin underlying the Lincoln Sea. This basin appears to be comparable in width and depth to the Sverdrup Basin of the Canadian Arctic Islands. The stratigraphy of the Lincoln Sea Basin is modelled in analogy to the Sverdrup Basin and the Central Spitsbergen Basin, two basins between which the Lincoln Sea intervened before the onset of seafloor spreading in the Eurasian Basin. The refraction data indicates that the Lincoln Sea Basin is capped by a kilometre-thick, low-velocity layer, which is taken to indicate an uplift history similar to, or even more favourable than, the fairway part of the Sverdrup Basin. Tectonic activity in the Palaeogene is likely to constitute the major basin scale risk. We conclude that the Lincoln Sea Basin is likely to be petroliferous and contains risked resources on the order of 1 ?? 109 barrels of oil, to which comes an equivalent amount of (associated and nonassociated) gas. ?? 2011 The Geological Society of London.

Combining deterministic and stochastic velocity fields in the analysis of deep crustal seismic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larkin, Steven Paul

Standard crustal seismic modeling obtains deterministic velocity models which ignore the effects of wavelength-scale heterogeneity, known to exist within the Earth's crust. Stochastic velocity models are a means to include wavelength-scale heterogeneity in the modeling. These models are defined by statistical parameters obtained from geologic maps of exposed crystalline rock, and are thus tied to actual geologic structures. Combining both deterministic and stochastic velocity models into a single model allows a realistic full wavefield (2-D) to be computed. By comparing these simulations to recorded seismic data, the effects of wavelength-scale heterogeneity can be investigated. Combined deterministic and stochastic velocity models are created for two datasets, the 1992 RISC seismic experiment in southeastern California and the 1986 PASSCAL seismic experiment in northern Nevada. The RISC experiment was located in the transition zone between the Salton Trough and the southern Basin and Range province. A high-velocity body previously identified beneath the Salton Trough is constrained to pinch out beneath the Chocolate Mountains to the northeast. The lateral extent of this body is evidence for the ephemeral nature of rifting loci as a continent is initially rifted. Stochastic modeling of wavelength-scale structures above this body indicate that little more than 5% mafic intrusion into a more felsic continental crust is responsible for the observed reflectivity. Modeling of the wide-angle RISC data indicates that coda waves following PmP are initially dominated by diffusion of energy out of the near-surface basin as the wavefield reverberates within this low-velocity layer. At later times, this coda consists of scattered body waves and P to S conversions. Surface waves do not play a significant role in this coda. Modeling of the PASSCAL dataset indicates that a high-gradient crust-mantle transition zone or a rough Moho interface is necessary to reduce precritical PmP energy. Possibly related, inconsistencies in published velocity models are rectified by hypothesizing the existence of large, elongate, high-velocity bodies at the base of the crust oriented to and of similar scale as the basins and ranges at the surface. This structure would result in an anisotropic lower crust.

Strategies for Large Scale Implementation of a Multiscale, Multiprocess Integrated Hydrologic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, M.; Duffy, C.

2006-05-01

Distributed models simulate hydrologic state variables in space and time while taking into account the heterogeneities in terrain, surface, subsurface properties and meteorological forcings. Computational cost and complexity associated with these model increases with its tendency to accurately simulate the large number of interacting physical processes at fine spatio-temporal resolution in a large basin. A hydrologic model run on a coarse spatial discretization of the watershed with limited number of physical processes needs lesser computational load. But this negatively affects the accuracy of model results and restricts physical realization of the problem. So it is imperative to have an integrated modeling strategy (a) which can be universally applied at various scales in order to study the tradeoffs between computational complexity (determined by spatio- temporal resolution), accuracy and predictive uncertainty in relation to various approximations of physical processes (b) which can be applied at adaptively different spatial scales in the same domain by taking into account the local heterogeneity of topography and hydrogeologic variables c) which is flexible enough to incorporate different number and approximation of process equations depending on model purpose and computational constraint. An efficient implementation of this strategy becomes all the more important for Great Salt Lake river basin which is relatively large (~89000 sq. km) and complex in terms of hydrologic and geomorphic conditions. Also the types and the time scales of hydrologic processes which are dominant in different parts of basin are different. Part of snow melt runoff generated in the Uinta Mountains infiltrates and contributes as base flow to the Great Salt Lake over a time scale of decades to centuries. The adaptive strategy helps capture the steep topographic and climatic gradient along the Wasatch front. Here we present the aforesaid modeling strategy along with an associated hydrologic modeling framework which facilitates a seamless, computationally efficient and accurate integration of the process model with the data model. The flexibility of this framework leads to implementation of multiscale, multiresolution, adaptive refinement/de-refinement and nested modeling simulations with least computational burden. However, performing these simulations and related calibration of these models over a large basin at higher spatio- temporal resolutions is computationally intensive and requires use of increasing computing power. With the advent of parallel processing architectures, high computing performance can be achieved by parallelization of existing serial integrated-hydrologic-model code. This translates to running the same model simulation on a network of large number of processors thereby reducing the time needed to obtain solution. The paper also discusses the implementation of the integrated model on parallel processors. Also will be discussed the mapping of the problem on multi-processor environment, method to incorporate coupling between hydrologic processes using interprocessor communication models, model data structure and parallel numerical algorithms to obtain high performance.

A basin-scale approach for assessing water resources in a semiarid environment: San Diego region, California and Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, L.E.; Flint, A.L.; Stolp, B.J.; Danskin, W.R.

2012-01-01

Many basins throughout the world have sparse hydrologic and geologic data, but have increasing demands for water and a commensurate need for integrated understanding of surface and groundwater resources. This paper demonstrates a methodology for using a distributed parameter water-balance model, gaged surface-water flow, and a reconnaissance-level groundwater flow model to develop a first-order water balance. Flow amounts are rounded to the nearest 5 million cubic meters per year. The San Diego River basin is 1 of 5 major drainage basins that drain to the San Diego coastal plain, the source of public water supply for the San Diego area. The distributed parameter water-balance model (Basin Characterization Model) was run at a monthly timestep for 1940–2009 to determine a median annual total water inflow of 120 million cubic meters per year for the San Diego region. The model was also run specifically for the San Diego River basin for 1982–2009 to provide constraints to model calibration and to evaluate the proportion of inflow that becomes groundwater discharge, resulting in a median annual total water inflow of 50 million cubic meters per year. On the basis of flow records for the San Diego River at Fashion Valley (US Geological Survey gaging station 11023000), when corrected for upper basin reservoir storage and imported water, the total is 30 million cubic meters per year. The difference between these two flow quantities defines the annual groundwater outflow from the San Diego River basin at 20 million cubic meters per year. These three flow components constitute a first-order water budget estimate for the San Diego River basin. The ratio of surface-water outflow and groundwater outflow to total water inflow are 0.6 and 0.4, respectively. Using total water inflow determined using the Basin Characterization Model for the entire San Diego region and the 0.4 partitioning factor, groundwater outflow from the San Diego region, through the coastal plain aquifer to the Pacific Ocean, is calculated to be approximately 50 million cubic meters per year. The area-scale assessment of water resources highlights several hydrologic features of the San Diego region. Groundwater recharge is episodic; the Basin Characterization Model output shows that 90 percent of simulated recharge occurred during 3 percent of the 1982–2009 period. The groundwater aquifer may also be quite permeable. A reconnaissance-level groundwater flow model for the San Diego River basin was used to check the water budget estimates, and the basic interaction of the surface-water and groundwater system, and the flow values, were found to be reasonable. Horizontal hydraulic conductivity values of the volcanic and metavolcanic bedrock in San Diego region range from 1 to 10 m per day. Overall, results establish an initial hydrologic assessment formulated on the basis of sparse hydrologic data. The described flow variability, extrapolation, and unique characteristics represent a realistic view of current (2012) hydrologic understanding for the San Diego region.

Attributes for MRB_E2RF1 Catchments by Major River Basins in the Conterminous United States: Basin Characteristics, 2002 Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: tabular digital data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wieczorek, Michael; LaMotte, Andrew E.

2010-01-01

This tabular data set represents basin characteristics for the year 2002 compiled for every MRB_E2RF1 catchment of selected Major River Basins (MRBs, Crawford and others, 2006). These characteristics are reach catchment shape index, stream density, sinuosity, mean elevation, mean slope and number of road-stream crossings. The source data sets are based on a modified version of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) RF1_2 and include enhancements to support national and regional-scale surface-water quality modeling (Nolan and others, 2002; Brakebill and others, 2011) and the U.S. Census Bureau's TIGER/Line Files (U.S. Census Bureau,2006). The MRB_E2RF1 catchments are based on a modified version of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) ERF1_2 and include enhancements to support national and regional-scale surface-water quality modeling (Nolan and others, 2002; Brakebill and others, 2011). Data were compiled for every MRB_E2RF1 catchment for the conterminous United States covering New England and Mid-Atlantic (MRB1), South Atlantic-Gulf and Tennessee (MRB2), the Great Lakes, Ohio, Upper Mississippi, and Souris-Red-Rainy (MRB3), the Missouri (MRB4), the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas-White-Red, and Texas-Gulf (MRB5), the Rio Grande, Colorado, and the Great basin (MRB6), the Pacific Northwest (MRB7) river basins, and California (MRB8).

Upscaling key ecosystem functions across the conterminous United States by a water‐centric ecosystem model

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Peter Caldwell; Asko Noormets; Steven G. McNulty; Erika Cohen; al. et.

2011-01-01

We developed a water‐centric monthly scale simulation model (WaSSI‐C) by integrating empirical water and carbon flux measurements from the FLUXNET network and an existing water supply and demand accounting model (WaSSI). The WaSSI‐C model was evaluated with basin‐scale evapotranspiration (ET), gross ecosystem productivity (GEP), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE)...

Monitoring fossil fuel sources of methane in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loh, Zoe; Etheridge, David; Luhar, Ashok; Hibberd, Mark; Thatcher, Marcus; Noonan, Julie; Thornton, David; Spencer, Darren; Gregory, Rebecca; Jenkins, Charles; Zegelin, Steve; Leuning, Ray; Day, Stuart; Barrett, Damian

2017-04-01

CSIRO has been active in identifying and quantifying methane emissions from a range of fossil fuel sources in Australia over the past decade. We present here a history of the development of our work in this domain. While we have principally focused on optimising the use of long term, fixed location, high precision monitoring, paired with both forward and inverse modelling techniques suitable either local or regional scales, we have also incorporated mobile ground surveys and flux calculations from plumes in some contexts. We initially developed leak detection methodologies for geological carbon storage at a local scale using a Bayesian probabilistic approach coupled to a backward Lagrangian particle dispersion model (Luhar et al. JGR, 2014), and single point monitoring with sector analysis (Etheridge et al. In prep.) We have since expanded our modelling techniques to regional scales using both forward and inverse approaches to constrain methane emissions from coal mining and coal seam gas (CSG) production. The Surat Basin (Queensland, Australia) is a region of rapidly expanding CSG production, in which we have established a pair of carefully located, well-intercalibrated monitoring stations. These data sets provide an almost continuous record of (i) background air arriving at the Surat Basin, and (ii) the signal resulting from methane emissions within the Basin, i.e. total downwind methane concentration (comprising emissions including natural geological seeps, agricultural and biogenic sources and fugitive emissions from CSG production) minus background or upwind concentration. We will present our latest results on monitoring from the Surat Basin and their application to estimating methane emissions.

Statistical downscaling of daily precipitation over Llobregat river basin in Catalonia (Spain) using three downscaling methods.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballinas, R.; Versini, P.-A.; Sempere, D.; Escaler, I.

2009-09-01

Any long-term change in the patterns of average weather in a global or regional scale is called climate change. It may cause a progressive increase of atmospheric temperature and consequently may change the amount, frequency and intensity of precipitation. All these changes of meteorological parameters may modify the water cycle: run-off, infiltration, aquifer recharge, etc. Recent studies in Catalonia foresee changes in hydrological systems caused by climate change. This will lead to alterations in the hydrological cycle that could impact in land use, in the regimen of water extractions, in the hydrological characteristics of the territory and reduced groundwater recharge. Besides, can expect a loss of flow in rivers. In addition to possible increases in the frequency of extreme rainfall, being necessary to modify the design of infrastructure. Because this, it work focuses on studying the impacts of climate change in one of the most important basins in Catalonia, the Llobregat River Basin. The basin is the hub of the province of Barcelona. It is a highly populated and urbanized catchment, where water resources are used for different purposes, as drinking water production, agricultural irrigation, industry and hydro-electrical energy production. In consequence, many companies and communities depend on these resources. To study the impact of climate change in the Llobregat basin, storms (frequency, intensity) mainly, we will need regional climate change information. A regional climate is determined by interactions at large, regional and local scales. The general circulation models (GCMs) are run at too coarse resolution to permit accurate description of these regional and local interactions. So far, they have been unable to provide consistent estimates of climate change on a local scale. Several regionalization techniques have been developed to bridge the gap between the large-scale information provided by GCMs and fine spatial scales required for regional and environmental impact studies. Downscaling methods to assess the effect of large-scale circulations on local parameters have. Statistical downscaling methods are based on the view that regional climate can be conditioned by two factors: large-scale climatic state and regional/local features. Local climate information is derived by first developing a statistical model which relates large-scale variables or "predictors" for which GCMs are trustable to regional or local surface "predictands" for which models are less skilful. The main advantage of these methods is that they are computationally inexpensive, and can be applied to outputs from different GCM experiments. Three statistical downscaling methods are applied: Analogue method, Delta Change and Direct Forcing. These methods have been used to determine daily precipitation projections at rain gauge location to study the intensity, frequency and variability of storms in a context of climate change in the Llobregat River Basin in Catalonia, Spain. This work is part of the European project "Water Change" (included in the LIFE + Environment Policy and Governance program). It deals with Medium and long term water resources modelling as a tool for planning and global change adaptation. Two stakeholders involved in the project provided the historical time series: Catalan Water Agency (ACA) and the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET).

Effects of large deep-seated landslides on hillslope morphology, western Southern Alps, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korup, Oliver

2006-03-01

Morphometric analysis and air photo interpretation highlight geomorphic imprints of large landslides (i.e., affecting ≥1 km2) on hillslopes in the western Southern Alps (WSA), New Zealand. Large landslides attain kilometer-scale runout, affect >50% of total basin relief, and in 70% are slope clearing, and thus relief limiting. Landslide terrain shows lower mean local relief, relief variability, slope angles, steepness, and concavity than surrounding terrain. Measuring mean slope angle smoothes out local landslide morphology, masking any relationship between large landslides and possible threshold hillslopes. Large failures also occurred on low-gradient slopes, indicating persistent low-frequency/high-magnitude hillslope adjustment independent of fluvial bedrock incision. At the basin and hillslope scale, slope-area plots partly constrain the effects of landslides on geomorphic process regimes. Landslide imprints gradually blend with relief characteristics at orogen scale (102 km), while being sensitive to length scales of slope failure, topography, sampling, and digital elevation model resolution. This limits means of automated detection, and underlines the importance of local morphologic contrasts for detecting large landslides in the WSA. Landslide controls on low-order drainage include divide lowering and shifting, formation of headwater basins and hanging valleys, and stream piracy. Volumes typically mobilized, yet still stored in numerous deposits despite high denudation rates, are >107 m3, and theoretically equal to 102 years of basin-wide debris production from historic shallow landslides; lack of absolute ages precludes further estimates. Deposit size and mature forest cover indicate residence times of 101-104 years. On these timescales, large landslides require further attention in landscape evolution models of tectonically active orogens.

An integrated framework to assess adaptation options to climate change impacts in an irrigated basin in Central North Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vicuna, S.; Melo, O.; Meza, F. J.; Alvarez, P.; Maureira, F.; Sanchez, A.; Tapia, A.; Cortes, M.; Dale, L. L.

2013-12-01

Future climate conditions could potentially affect water supply and demand on water basins throughout the world but especially on snowmelt-driven agriculture oriented basins that can be found throughout central Chile. Increasing temperature and reducing precipitation will affect both the magnitude and timing of water supply this part of the world. Different adaptation strategies could be implemented to reduce the impacts of such scenarios. Some could be incorporated as planned policies decided at the basin or Water Use Organization levels. Examples include changing large scale irrigation infrastructure (reservoirs and main channels) either physically or its operation. Complementing these strategies it is reasonable to think that at a disaggregated level, farmers would also react (adapt) to these new conditions using a mix of options to either modify their patterns of consumption (irrigation efficiency, crop mix, crop area reduction), increase their ability to access new sources of water (groundwater, water markets) or finally compensate their expected losses (insurance). We present a modeling framework developed to represent these issues using as a case study the Limarí basin located in Central Chile. This basin is a renowned example of how the development of reservoirs and irrigation infrastructure can reduce climate vulnerabilities allowing the economic development of a basin. Farmers in this basin tackle climate variability by adopting different strategies that depend first on the reservoir water volume allocation rule, on the type and size of investment they have at their farms and finally their potential access to water markets and other water supplies options. The framework developed can be used to study these strategies under current and future climate scenarios. The cornerstone of the framework is an hydrology and water resources model developed on the WEAP platform. This model is able to reproduce the large scale hydrologic features of the basin such as snowmelt hydrology, reservoir operation and groundwater dynamics. Crop yield under different water irrigation patterns have been inferred using a calibrated Cropsyst model. These crop yields together with user association irrigation constraints are used in a GAMS optimization model embedded dynamically in WEAP in order to obtain every year decisions on crop mix (including fallow land), irrigation patterns and participation in the spot water market. The GAMS optimization model has been calibrated using annual crop mix time series derived using a combination of sources of information ranging from different type of census plus satellite images. The resulting modeling platform is able to simulate under historic and future climate scenarios water availability in different locations of the basin with associated crop yield and economic consequences. The platform also allows the implementation of autonomous and planned adaptation strategies that could reduce the impacts of climate variability and climate change.

Impact of state updating and multi-parametric ensemble for streamflow hindcasting in European river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, S. J.; Rakovec, O.; Kumar, R.; Samaniego, L. E.

2015-12-01

Accurate and reliable streamflow prediction is essential to mitigate social and economic damage coming from water-related disasters such as flood and drought. Sequential data assimilation (DA) may facilitate improved streamflow prediction using real-time observations to correct internal model states. In conventional DA methods such as state updating, parametric uncertainty is often ignored mainly due to practical limitations of methodology to specify modeling uncertainty with limited ensemble members. However, if parametric uncertainty related with routing and runoff components is not incorporated properly, predictive uncertainty by model ensemble may be insufficient to capture dynamics of observations, which may deteriorate predictability. Recently, a multi-scale parameter regionalization (MPR) method was proposed to make hydrologic predictions at different scales using a same set of model parameters without losing much of the model performance. The MPR method incorporated within the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM, http://www.ufz.de/mhm) could effectively represent and control uncertainty of high-dimensional parameters in a distributed model using global parameters. In this study, we evaluate impacts of streamflow data assimilation over European river basins. Especially, a multi-parametric ensemble approach is tested to consider the effects of parametric uncertainty in DA. Because augmentation of parameters is not required within an assimilation window, the approach could be more stable with limited ensemble members and have potential for operational uses. To consider the response times and non-Gaussian characteristics of internal hydrologic processes, lagged particle filtering is utilized. The presentation will be focused on gains and limitations of streamflow data assimilation and multi-parametric ensemble method over large-scale basins.

Utilizing Gravity Methods for Regional Studies in Basin Delineation: Case Study at Jornada del Muerto basin, New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villalobos, J. I.

2005-12-01

The modeling of basin structures is an important step in the development of plans and policies for ground water management. To facilitate in the analysis of large scale regional structures, gravity data is implemented to examine the overall structural trend of the region. The gravitational attraction of structures in the upper mantle and crust provide vital information about the possible structure and composition of a region. Improved availability of gravity data via internet has promoted extensive construction and interpretation of gravity maps in the analysis of sub-surface structural anomalies. The utilization of gravity data appears to be particularly worthwhile because it is a non-invasive and inexpensive means of addressing the subsurface tectonic framework of large scale regions. In this paper, the author intends to illustrate 1) acquisition of gravity data and its processing; 2) interpretation of gravity data; and 3) sources of uncertainty and errors by using a case study of the Jornada del Muerto basin in South-Central New Mexico where integrated gravity data inferred several faults, sub-basins and thickness variations within the basins structure. The author also explores the integration of gravity method with other geophysical methods to further refine the delineation of basins.

Large-scale runoff generation - parsimonious parameterisation using high-resolution topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, L.; Halldin, S.; Xu, C.-Y.

2011-08-01

World water resources have primarily been analysed by global-scale hydrological models in the last decades. Runoff generation in many of these models are based on process formulations developed at catchments scales. The division between slow runoff (baseflow) and fast runoff is primarily governed by slope and spatial distribution of effective water storage capacity, both acting at very small scales. Many hydrological models, e.g. VIC, account for the spatial storage variability in terms of statistical distributions; such models are generally proven to perform well. The statistical approaches, however, use the same runoff-generation parameters everywhere in a basin. The TOPMODEL concept, on the other hand, links the effective maximum storage capacity with real-world topography. Recent availability of global high-quality, high-resolution topographic data makes TOPMODEL attractive as a basis for a physically-based runoff-generation algorithm at large scales, even if its assumptions are not valid in flat terrain or for deep groundwater systems. We present a new runoff-generation algorithm for large-scale hydrology based on TOPMODEL concepts intended to overcome these problems. The TRG (topography-derived runoff generation) algorithm relaxes the TOPMODEL equilibrium assumption so baseflow generation is not tied to topography. TRG only uses the topographic index to distribute average storage to each topographic index class. The maximum storage capacity is proportional to the range of topographic index and is scaled by one parameter. The distribution of storage capacity within large-scale grid cells is obtained numerically through topographic analysis. The new topography-derived distribution function is then inserted into a runoff-generation framework similar VIC's. Different basin parts are parameterised by different storage capacities, and different shapes of the storage-distribution curves depend on their topographic characteristics. The TRG algorithm is driven by the HydroSHEDS dataset with a resolution of 3" (around 90 m at the equator). The TRG algorithm was validated against the VIC algorithm in a common model framework in 3 river basins in different climates. The TRG algorithm performed equally well or marginally better than the VIC algorithm with one less parameter to be calibrated. The TRG algorithm also lacked equifinality problems and offered a realistic spatial pattern for runoff generation and evaporation.

Large-scale runoff generation - parsimonious parameterisation using high-resolution topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, L.; Halldin, S.; Xu, C.-Y.

2010-09-01

World water resources have primarily been analysed by global-scale hydrological models in the last decades. Runoff generation in many of these models are based on process formulations developed at catchments scales. The division between slow runoff (baseflow) and fast runoff is primarily governed by slope and spatial distribution of effective water storage capacity, both acting a very small scales. Many hydrological models, e.g. VIC, account for the spatial storage variability in terms of statistical distributions; such models are generally proven to perform well. The statistical approaches, however, use the same runoff-generation parameters everywhere in a basin. The TOPMODEL concept, on the other hand, links the effective maximum storage capacity with real-world topography. Recent availability of global high-quality, high-resolution topographic data makes TOPMODEL attractive as a basis for a physically-based runoff-generation algorithm at large scales, even if its assumptions are not valid in flat terrain or for deep groundwater systems. We present a new runoff-generation algorithm for large-scale hydrology based on TOPMODEL concepts intended to overcome these problems. The TRG (topography-derived runoff generation) algorithm relaxes the TOPMODEL equilibrium assumption so baseflow generation is not tied to topography. TGR only uses the topographic index to distribute average storage to each topographic index class. The maximum storage capacity is proportional to the range of topographic index and is scaled by one parameter. The distribution of storage capacity within large-scale grid cells is obtained numerically through topographic analysis. The new topography-derived distribution function is then inserted into a runoff-generation framework similar VIC's. Different basin parts are parameterised by different storage capacities, and different shapes of the storage-distribution curves depend on their topographic characteristics. The TRG algorithm is driven by the HydroSHEDS dataset with a resolution of 3'' (around 90 m at the equator). The TRG algorithm was validated against the VIC algorithm in a common model framework in 3 river basins in different climates. The TRG algorithm performed equally well or marginally better than the VIC algorithm with one less parameter to be calibrated. The TRG algorithm also lacked equifinality problems and offered a realistic spatial pattern for runoff generation and evaporation.

Karst medium characterization and simulation of groundwater flow in Lijiang Riversed, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, B. X.

2015-12-01

It is important to study water and carbon cycle processes for water resource management, pollution prevention and global warming influence on southwest karst region of China. Lijiang river basin is selected as our study region. Interdisciplinary field and laboratory experiments with various technologies are conducted to characterize the karst aquifers in detail. Key processes in the karst water cycle and carbon cycle are determined. Based on the MODFLOW-CFP model, new watershed flow and carbon cycle models are developed coupled subsurface and surface water flow models, flow and chemical/biological models. Our study is focused on the karst springshed in Mao village. The mechanisms coupling carbon cycle and water cycle are explored. Parallel computing technology is used to construct the numerical model for the carbon cycle and water cycle in the small scale watershed, which are calibrated and verified by field observations. The developed coupling model for the small scale watershed is extended to a large scale watershed considering the scale effect of model parameters and proper model structure simplification. The large scale watershed model is used to study water cycle and carbon cycle in Lijiang rivershed, and to calculate the carbon flux and carbon sinks in the Lijiang river basin. The study results provide scientific methods for water resources management and environmental protection in southwest karst region corresponding to global climate change. This study could provide basic theory and simulation method for geological carbon sequestration in China karst region.

Simulation of groundwater flow and evaluation of carbon sink in Lijiang Rivershed, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Bill X.; Cao, Jianhua; Tong, Juxiu; Gao, Bing

2016-04-01

It is important to study water and carbon cycle processes for water resource management, pollution prevention and global warming influence on southwest karst region of China. Lijiang river basin is selected as our study region. Interdisciplinary field and laboratory experiments with various technologies are conducted to characterize the karst aquifers in detail. Key processes in the karst water cycle and carbon cycle are determined. Based on the MODFLOW-CFP model, new watershed flow and carbon cycle models are developed coupled subsurface and surface water flow models, flow and chemical/biological models. Our study is focused on the karst springshed in Mao village. The mechanisms coupling carbon cycle and water cycle are explored. Parallel computing technology is used to construct the numerical model for the carbon cycle and water cycle in the small scale watershed, which are calibrated and verified by field observations. The developed coupling model for the small scale watershed is extended to a large scale watershed considering the scale effect of model parameters and proper model structure simplification. The large scale watershed model is used to study water cycle and carbon cycle in Lijiang rivershed, and to calculate the carbon flux and carbon sinks in the Lijiang river basin. The study results provide scientific methods for water resources management and environmental protection in southwest karst region corresponding to global climate change. This study could provide basic theory and simulation method for geological carbon sequestration in China karst region.

Effects of Model Resolution and Ocean Mixing on Forced Ice-Ocean Physical and Biogeochemical Simulations Using Global and Regional System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Meibing; Deal, Clara; Maslowski, Wieslaw; Matrai, Patricia; Roberts, Andrew; Osinski, Robert; Lee, Younjoo J.; Frants, Marina; Elliott, Scott; Jeffery, Nicole; Hunke, Elizabeth; Wang, Shanlin

2018-01-01

The current coarse-resolution global Community Earth System Model (CESM) can reproduce major and large-scale patterns but is still missing some key biogeochemical features in the Arctic Ocean, e.g., low surface nutrients in the Canada Basin. We incorporated the CESM Version 1 ocean biogeochemical code into the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) and coupled it with a sea-ice algal module to investigate model limitations. Four ice-ocean hindcast cases are compared with various observations: two in a global 1° (40˜60 km in the Arctic) grid: G1deg and G1deg-OLD with/without new sea-ice processes incorporated; two on RASM's 1/12° (˜9 km) grid R9km and R9km-NB with/without a subgrid scale brine rejection parameterization which improves ocean vertical mixing under sea ice. Higher-resolution and new sea-ice processes contributed to lower model errors in sea-ice extent, ice thickness, and ice algae. In the Bering Sea shelf, only higher resolution contributed to lower model errors in salinity, nitrate (NO3), and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a). In the Arctic Basin, model errors in mixed layer depth (MLD) were reduced 36% by brine rejection parameterization, 20% by new sea-ice processes, and 6% by higher resolution. The NO3 concentration biases were caused by both MLD bias and coarse resolution, because of excessive horizontal mixing of high NO3 from the Chukchi Sea into the Canada Basin in coarse resolution models. R9km showed improvements over G1deg on NO3, but not on Chl-a, likely due to light limitation under snow and ice cover in the Arctic Basin.

Are big basins just the sum of small catchments?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shaman, J.; Stieglitz, M.; Burns, D.

2004-01-01

Many challenges remain in extending our understanding of how hydrologic processes within small catchments scale to larger river basins. In this study we examine how low-flow runoff varies as a function of basin scale at 11 catchments, many of which are nested, in the 176 km2 Neversink River watershed in the Catskill Mountains of New York. Topography, vegetation, soil and bedrock structure are similar across this river basin, and previous research has demonstrated the importance of deep groundwater springs for maintaining low-flow stream discharge at small scales in the basin. Therefore, we hypothesized that deep groundwater would contribute an increasing amount to low-flow discharge as basin scale increased, resulting in increased runoff. Instead, we find that, above a critical basin size of 8 to 21 km2, low-flow runoff is similar within the Neversink watershed. These findings are broadly consistent with those of a previous study that examined stream chemistry as a function of basin scale for this watershed. However, we find physical evidence of self-similarity among basins greater than 8 km2, whereas the previous study found gradual changes in stream chemistry among basins greater than 3 km 2. We believe that a better understanding of self-similarity and the subsurface flow processes that affect stream runoff will be attained through simultaneous consideration of both chemical and physical evidence. We also suggest that similar analyses of stream runoff in other basins that represent a range of spatial scales, geomorphologies and climate conditions will further elucidate the issue of scaling of hydrologic processes. Copyright ?? 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Spatial variability of the response to climate change in regional groundwater systems -- examples from simulations in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waibel, Michael S.; Gannett, Marshall W.; Chang, Heejun; Hulbe, Christina L.

2013-01-01

We examine the spatial variability of the response of aquifer systems to climate change in and adjacent to the Cascade Range volcanic arc in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon using downscaled global climate model projections to drive surface hydrologic process and groundwater flow models. Projected warming over the 21st century is anticipated to shift the phase of precipitation toward more rain and less snow in mountainous areas in the Pacific Northwest, resulting in smaller winter snowpack and in a shift in the timing of runoff to earlier in the year. This will be accompanied by spatially variable changes in the timing of groundwater recharge. Analysis of historic climate and hydrologic data and modeling studies show that groundwater plays a key role in determining the response of stream systems to climate change. The spatial variability in the response of groundwater systems to climate change, particularly with regard to flow-system scale, however, has generally not been addressed in the literature. Here we simulate the hydrologic response to projected future climate to show that the response of groundwater systems can vary depending on the location and spatial scale of the flow systems and their aquifer characteristics. Mean annual recharge averaged over the basin does not change significantly between the 1980s and 2080s climate periods given the ensemble of global climate models and emission scenarios evaluated. There are, however, changes in the seasonality of groundwater recharge within the basin. Simulation results show that short-flow-path groundwater systems, such as those providing baseflow to many headwater streams, will likely have substantial changes in the timing of discharge in response changes in seasonality of recharge. Regional-scale aquifer systems with flow paths on the order of many tens of kilometers, in contrast, are much less affected by changes in seasonality of recharge. Flow systems at all spatial scales, however, are likely to reflect interannual changes in total recharge. These results provide insights into the possible impacts of climate change to other regional aquifer systems, and the streams they support, where discharge points represent a range of flow system scales.

Space-Time Controls on Carbon Sequestration Over Large-Scale Amazon Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Cooper, Harry J.; Gu, Jiujing; Grose, Andrew; Norman, John; daRocha, Humberto R.; Starr, David O. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A major research focus of the LBA Ecology Program is an assessment of the carbon budget and the carbon sequestering capacity of the large scale forest-pasture system that dominates the Amazonia landscape, and its time-space heterogeneity manifest in carbon fluxes across the large scale Amazon basin ecosystem. Quantification of these processes requires a combination of in situ measurements, remotely sensed measurements from space, and a realistically forced hydrometeorological model coupled to a carbon assimilation model, capable of simulating details within the surface energy and water budgets along with the principle modes of photosynthesis and respiration. Here we describe the results of an investigation concerning the space-time controls of carbon sources and sinks distributed over the large scale Amazon basin. The results are derived from a carbon-water-energy budget retrieval system for the large scale Amazon basin, which uses a coupled carbon assimilation-hydrometeorological model as an integrating system, forced by both in situ meteorological measurements and remotely sensed radiation fluxes and precipitation retrieval retrieved from a combination of GOES, SSM/I, TOMS, and TRMM satellite measurements. Brief discussion concerning validation of (a) retrieved surface radiation fluxes and precipitation based on 30-min averaged surface measurements taken at Ji-Parana in Rondonia and Manaus in Amazonas, and (b) modeled carbon fluxes based on tower CO2 flux measurements taken at Reserva Jaru, Manaus and Fazenda Nossa Senhora. The space-time controls on carbon sequestration are partitioned into sets of factors classified by: (1) above canopy meteorology, (2) incoming surface radiation, (3) precipitation interception, and (4) indigenous stomatal processes varied over the different land covers of pristine rainforest, partially, and fully logged rainforests, and pasture lands. These are the principle meteorological, thermodynamical, hydrological, and biophysical control paths which perturb net carbon fluxes and sequestration, produce time-space switching of carbon sources and sinks, undergo modulation through atmospheric boundary layer feedbacks, and respond to any discontinuous intervention on the landscape itself such as produced by human intervention in converting rainforest to pasture or conducting selective/clearcut logging operations.

Quantification of Covariance in Tropical Cyclone Activity across Teleconnected Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolwinski-Ward, S. E.; Wang, D.

2015-12-01

Rigorous statistical quantification of natural hazard covariance across regions has important implications for risk management, and is also of fundamental scientific interest. We present a multivariate Bayesian Poisson regression model for inferring the covariance in tropical cyclone (TC) counts across multiple ocean basins and across Saffir-Simpson intensity categories. Such covariability results from the influence of large-scale modes of climate variability on local environments that can alternately suppress or enhance TC genesis and intensification, and our model also simultaneously quantifies the covariance of TC counts with various climatic modes in order to deduce the source of inter-basin TC covariability. The model explicitly treats the time-dependent uncertainty in observed maximum sustained wind data, and hence the nominal intensity category of each TC. Differences in annual TC counts as measured by different agencies are also formally addressed. The probabilistic output of the model can be probed for probabilistic answers to such questions as: - Does the relationship between different categories of TCs differ statistically by basin? - Which climatic predictors have significant relationships with TC activity in each basin? - Are the relationships between counts in different basins conditionally independent given the climatic predictors, or are there other factors at play affecting inter-basin covariability? - How can a portfolio of insured property be optimized across space to minimize risk? Although we present results of our model applied to TCs, the framework is generalizable to covariance estimation between multivariate counts of natural hazards across regions and/or across peril types.

The hydrodynamics of the Big Horn Basin: a study of the role of faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bredehoeft, J.D.; Belitz, K.; Sharp-Hansen, S.

1992-01-01

A three-dimensional mathematical model simulates groundwater flow in the Big Horn basin, Wyoming. The hydraulic head at depth over much of the Big Horn basin is near the land surface elevation, a condition usually defined as hydrostatic. This condition indicates a high, regional-scale, vertical conductivity for the sediments in the basin. Our hypothesis to explain the high conductivity is that the faults act as vertical conduits for fluid flow. These same faults can act as either horizontal barriers to flow or nonbarriers, depending upon whether the fault zones are more permeable or less permeable than the adjoining aquifers. -from Authors

Identification and simulation of space-time variability of past hydrological drought events in the Limpopo river basin, Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trambauer, P.; Maskey, S.; Werner, M.; Pappenberger, F.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Uhlenbrook, S.

2014-03-01

Droughts are widespread natural hazards and in many regions their frequency seems to be increasing. A finer resolution version (0.05° x 0.05°) of the continental scale hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was set up for the Limpopo river basin, one of the most water stressed basins on the African continent. An irrigation module was included to account for large irrigated areas of the basin. The finer resolution model was used to analyse droughts in the Limpopo river basin in the period 1979-2010 with a view to identifying severe droughts that have occurred in the basin. Evaporation, soil moisture, groundwater storage and runoff estimates from the model were derived at a spatial resolution of 0.05° (approximately 5 km) on a daily time scale for the entire basin. PCR-GLOBWB was forced with daily precipitation, temperature and other meteorological variables obtained from the ERA-Interim global atmospheric reanalysis product from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Two agricultural drought indicators were computed: the Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI) and the Root Stress Anomaly Index (RSAI). Hydrological drought was characterised using the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) and the Groundwater Resource Index (GRI), which make use of the streamflow and groundwater storage resulting from the model. Other more widely used drought indicators, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) were also computed for different aggregation periods. Results show that a carefully set up process-based model that makes use of the best available input data can successfully identify hydrological droughts even if the model is largely uncalibrated. The indicators considered are able to represent the most severe droughts in the basin and to some extent identify the spatial variability of droughts. Moreover, results show the importance of computing indicators that can be related to hydrological droughts, and how these add value to the identification of droughts/floods and the temporal evolution of events that would otherwise not have been apparent when considering only meteorological indicators. In some cases, meteorological indicators alone fail to capture the severity of the drought. Therefore, a combination of some of these indicators (e.g. SPEI-3, SRI-6, SPI-12) is found to be a useful measure for identifying hydrological droughts in the Limpopo river basin. Additionally, it is possible to make a characterisation of the drought severity, indicated by its duration and intensity.

Use of regional climate model output for hydrologic simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, L.E.; Clark, M.P.; Wilby, R.L.; Gutowski, W.J.; Leavesley, G.H.; Pan, Z.; Arritt, R.W.; Takle, E.S.

2002-01-01

Daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature time series from a regional climate model (RegCM2) configured using the continental United States as a domain and run on a 52-km (approximately) spatial resolution were used as input to a distributed hydrologic model for one rainfall-dominated basin (Alapaha River at Statenville, Georgia) and three snowmelt-dominated basins (Animas River at Durango. Colorado; east fork of the Carson River near Gardnerville, Nevada: and Cle Elum River near Roslyn, Washington). For comparison purposes, spatially averaged daily datasets of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature were developed from measured data for each basin. These datasets included precipitation and temperature data for all stations (hereafter, All-Sta) located within the area of the RegCM2 output used for each basin, but excluded station data used to calibrate the hydrologic model. Both the RegCM2 output and All-Sta data capture the gross aspects of the seasonal cycles of precipitation and temperature. However, in all four basins, the RegCM2- and All-Sta-based simulations of runoff show little skill on a daily basis [Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) values range from 0.05 to 0.37 for RegCM2 and -0.08 to 0.65 for All-Sta]. When the precipitation and temperature biases are corrected in the RegCM2 output and All-Sta data (Bias-RegCM2 and Bias-All, respectively) the accuracy of the daily runoff simulations improve dramatically for the snowmelt-dominated basins (NS values range from 0.41 to 0.66 for RegCM2 and 0.60 to 0.76 for All-Sta). In the rainfall-dominated basin, runoff simulations based on the Bias-RegCM2 output show no skill (NS value of 0.09) whereas Bias-All simulated runoff improves (NS value improved from - 0.08 to 0.72). These results indicate that measured data at the coarse resolution of the RegCM2 output can be made appropriate for basin-scale modeling through bias correction (essentially a magnitude correction). However, RegCM2 output, even when bias corrected, does not contain the day-to-day variability present in the All-Sta dataset that is necessary for basin-scale modeling. Future work is warranted to identify the causes for systematic biases in RegCM2 simulations, develop methods to remove the biases, and improve RegCM2 simulations of daily variability in local climate.

Where and why hyporheic exchange is important: Inferences from a parsimonious, physically-based river network model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez-Velez, J. D.; Harvey, J. W.

2014-12-01

Hyporheic exchange has been hypothesized to have basin-scale consequences; however, predictions throughout river networks are limited by available geomorphic and hydrogeologic data as well as models that can analyze and aggregate hyporheic exchange flows across large spatial scales. We developed a parsimonious but physically-based model of hyporheic flow for application in large river basins: Networks with EXchange and Subsurface Storage (NEXSS). At the core of NEXSS is a characterization of the channel geometry, geomorphic features, and related hydraulic drivers based on scaling equations from the literature and readily accessible information such as river discharge, bankfull width, median grain size, sinuosity, channel slope, and regional groundwater gradients. Multi-scale hyporheic flow is computed based on combining simple but powerful analytical and numerical expressions that have been previously published. We applied NEXSS across a broad range of geomorphic diversity in river reaches and synthetic river networks. NEXSS demonstrates that vertical exchange beneath submerged bedforms dominates hyporheic fluxes and turnover rates along the river corridor. Moreover, the hyporheic zone's potential for biogeochemical transformations is comparable across stream orders, but the abundance of lower-order channels results in a considerably higher cumulative effect for low-order streams. Thus, vertical exchange beneath submerged bedforms has more potential for biogeochemical transformations than lateral exchange beneath banks, although lateral exchange through meanders may be important in large rivers. These results have implications for predicting outcomes of river and basin management practices.

Hierarchical algorithms for modeling the ocean on hierarchical architectures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, C. N.

2012-12-01

This presentation will describe an approach to using accelerator/co-processor technology that maps hierarchical, multi-scale modeling techniques to an underlying hierarchical hardware architecture. The focus of this work is on making effective use of both CPU and accelerator/co-processor parts of a system, for large scale ocean modeling. In the work, a lower resolution basin scale ocean model is locally coupled to multiple, "embedded", limited area higher resolution sub-models. The higher resolution models execute on co-processor/accelerator hardware and do not interact directly with other sub-models. The lower resolution basin scale model executes on the system CPU(s). The result is a multi-scale algorithm that aligns with hardware designs in the co-processor/accelerator space. We demonstrate this approach being used to substitute explicit process models for standard parameterizations. Code for our sub-models is implemented through a generic abstraction layer, so that we can target multiple accelerator architectures with different programming environments. We will present two application and implementation examples. One uses the CUDA programming environment and targets GPU hardware. This example employs a simple non-hydrostatic two dimensional sub-model to represent vertical motion more accurately. The second example uses a highly threaded three-dimensional model at high resolution. This targets a MIC/Xeon Phi like environment and uses sub-models as a way to explicitly compute sub-mesoscale terms. In both cases the accelerator/co-processor capability provides extra compute cycles that allow improved model fidelity for little or no extra wall-clock time cost.

Using environmental tracer data to identify deep-aquifer, long-term flow patterns and recharge distributions in the Surat Basin, Queensland, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siade, A. J.; Suckow, A. O.; Morris, R.; Raiber, M.; Prommer, H.

2017-12-01

The calibration of regional groundwater flow models, including those investigating coal-seam gas (CSG) impacts in the Surat Basin, Australia, are not typically constrained using environmental tracers, although the use of such data can potentially provide significant reductions in predictive uncertainties. These additional sources of information can also improve the conceptualisation of flow systems and the quantification of groundwater fluxes. In this study, new multi-tracer data (14C, 39Ar, 81Kr, and 36Cl) were collected for the eastern recharge areas of the basin and within the deeper Hutton and Precipice Sandstone formations to complement existing environmental tracer data. These data were used to better understand the recharge mechanisms, recharge rates and the hydraulic properties associated with deep aquifer systems in the Surat Basin. Together with newly acquired pressure data documenting the response to the large-scale reinjection of highly treated CSG co-produced water, the environmental tracer data helped to improve the conceptualisation of the aquifer system, forming the basis for a more robust quantification of the long-term impacts of CSG-related activities. An existing regional scale MODFLOW-USG groundwater flow model of the area was used as the basis for our analysis of existing and new observation data. A variety of surrogate modelling approaches were used to develop simplified models that focussed on the flow and transport behaviour of the deep aquifer systems. These surrogate models were able to represent sub-system behaviour in terms of flow, multi-environmental tracer transport and the observed large-scale hydrogeochemical patterns. The incorporation of the environmental tracer data into the modelling framework provide an improved understanding of the flow regimes of the deeper aquifer systems as well as valuable information on how to reduce uncertainties in hydraulic properties where there is little or no historical observations of hydraulic heads.

Large-Scale Effects of Timber Harvesting on Stream Systems in the Ouachita Mountains, Arkansas, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Lance R.; Taylor, Christopher M.; Warren, Melvin L., Jr.; Clingenpeel, J. Alan

2002-01-01

Using Basin Area Stream Survey (BASS) data from the United States Forest Service, we evaluated how timber harvesting influenced patterns of variation in physical stream features and regional fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages. Data were collected for three years (1990-1992) from six hydrologically variable streams in the Ouachita Mountains, Arkansas, USA that were paired by management regime within three drainage basins. Specifically, we used multivariate techniques to partition variability in assemblage structure (taxonomic and trophic) that could be explained by timber harvesting, drainage basin differences, year-to-year variability, and their shared variance components. Most of the variation in fish assemblages was explained by drainage basin differences, and both basin and year-of-sampling influenced macroinvertebrate assemblages. All three factors modeled, including interactions between drainage basins and timber harvesting, influenced variability in physical stream features. Interactions between timber harvesting and drainage basins indicated that differences in physical stream features were important in determining the effects of logging within a basin. The lack of a logging effect on the biota contradicts predictions for these small, hydrologically variable streams. We believe this pattern is related to the large scale of this study and the high levels of natural variability in the streams. Alternatively, there may be time-specific effects we were unable to detect with our sampling design and analyses.

Quantifying restoration effectiveness using multi-scale habitat models: Implications for sage-grouse in the Great Basin

Treesearch

Robert S. Arkle; David S. Pilliod; Steven E. Hanser; Matthew L. Brooks; Jeanne C. Chambers; James B. Grace; Kevin C. Knutson; David A. Pyke; Justin L. Welty; Troy A. Wirth

2014-01-01

A recurrent challenge in the conservation of wide-ranging, imperiled species is understanding which habitats to protect and whether we are capable of restoring degraded landscapes. For Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a species of conservation concern in the western United States, we approached this problem by developing multi-scale empirical models of...

Spatial and temporal connections in groundwater contribution to evaporation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, A.; Karssenberg, D.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2011-02-01

In climate models, lateral terrestrial water fluxes are usually neglected. We estimated the contribution of vertical and lateral groundwater fluxes to the land surface water budget at a subcontinental scale, by modelling convergence of groundwater and surfacewater fluxes. We present a hydrological model of the entire Danube Basin at 5 km resolution, and use it to show the importance of groundwater for the surface climate. The contribution of groundwater to evaporation is significant, and can be upwards of 30% in summer. We show that this contribution is local by presenting the groundwater travel times and the magnitude of groundwater convergence. Throughout the Danube Basin the lateral fluxes of groundwater are negligible when modelling at this scale and resolution. Also, it is shown that the contribution of groundwater to evaporation has important temporal characteristics. An experiment with the same model shows that a wet episode influences groundwaters contribution to summer evaporation for several years afterwards. This indicates that modelling groundwater flow has the potential to augment the multi-year memory of climate models.

Basin Scale Estimates of Evapotranspiration Using GRACE and other Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodell, M.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Chen, J.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Viterbo, P.; Holl, S.; Wilson, C. R.

2004-01-01

Evapotranspiration is integral to studies of the Earth system, yet it is difficult to measure on regional scales. One estimation technique is a terrestrial water budget, i.e., total precipitation minus the sum of evapotranspiration and net runoff equals the change in water storage. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite gravity observations are now enabling closure of this equation by providing the terrestrial water storage change. Equations are presented here for estimating evapotranspiration using observation based information, taking into account the unique nature of GRACE observations. GRACE water storage changes are first substantiated by comparing with results from a land surface model and a combined atmospheric-terrestrial water budget approach. Evapotranspiration is then estimated for 14 time periods over the Mississippi River basin and compared with output from three modeling systems. The GRACE estimates generally lay in the middle of the models and may provide skill in evaluating modeled evapotranspiration.

Differential exhumation at eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, from apatite fission-track thermochronology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Bin; Liu, Shu-gen; Li, Zhi-wu; Jansa, Luba F.; Liu, Shun; Wang, Guo-zhi; Sun, Wei

2013-04-01

New apatite fission-track (AFT) ages from Mesozoic sediments in the Sichuan basin, combined with previous fission-track data, demonstrate differential uplift and exhumation across the basin. Particularly significant change in exhumation (at least ~ 2000 m) was found across the Huaying Mts. Modeled temperature-time histories and the Boomerang plot of AFT dataset across the basin suggest rapid cooling and exhumation events during 120-80 Ma and at 20-10 Ma. They reflect the start of the basin-scale differential uplift and exhumation which effected the eastern growth of Tibetan Plateau. In particular, nested old-age center separated by Huaying Mts. was found in the center-to-northwest part of the Sichuan basin. A simplified one-dimensional, steady-state solution model was developed to calculate the mean exhumation rate, which is 0.05-0.2 mm/yr in most parts of the basin. It suggests a slow exhumation across much of the basin. The regional pattern of AFT age, length and erosion rate supports a progressive change from the nested old-age center towards the southwest. This pattern supports the idea of a prolonged, steady-state uplift and exhumation process across the basin, controlled by cratonic basin structure. The eastern growth of the Tibetan Plateau has exerted a significant effect on the rapid exhumation of the southwestern part of the Sichuan basin, but not on all of the basin during the Late Cenozoic.

Multi-platform validation of a high-resolution model in the Western Mediterranean Sea: insight into spatial-temporal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguiar, Eva; Mourre, Baptiste; Heslop, Emma; Juza, Mélanie; Escudier, Romain; Tintoré, Joaquín

2017-04-01

This study focuses on the validation of the high resolution Western Mediterranean Operational model (WMOP) developed at SOCIB, the Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System. The Mediterranean Sea is often seen as a small scale ocean laboratory where energetic eddies, fronts and circulation features have important ecological consequences. The Medclic project is a program between "La Caixa" Foundation and SOCIB which aims at characterizing and forecasting the "oceanic weather" in the Western Mediterranean Sea, specifically investigating the interactions between the general circulation and mesoscale processes. We use a WMOP 2009-2015 free run hindcast simulation and available observational datasets (altimetry, moorings and gliders) to both assess the numerical simulation and investigate the ocean variability. WMOP has a 2-km spatial resolution and uses CMEMS Mediterranean products as initial and boundary conditions, with surface forcing from the high-resolution Spanish Meteorological Agency model HIRLAM. Different aspects of the spatial and temporal variability in the model are validated from local to regional and basin scales: (1) the principal axis of variability of the surface circulation using altimetry and moorings along the Iberian coast, (2) the inter-annual changes of the surface flows incorporating also glider data, (3) the propagation of mesoscale eddies formed in the Algerian sub-basin using altimetry, and (4) the statistical properties of eddies (number, rotation, size) applying an eddy tracker detection method in the Western Mediterranean Sea. With these key points evaluated in the model, EOF analysis of sea surface height maps are used to investigate spatial patterns of variability associated with eddies, gyres and the basis-scale circulation and so gain insight into the interconnections between sub-basins, as well as the interactions between physical processes at different scales.

Multi-decadal Dynamics of Mercury in a Complex Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levin, L.

2016-12-01

A suite of air quality and watershed models was applied to track the ecosystem contributions of mercury (Hg), as well as arsenic (As), and selenium (Se) from local and global sources to the San Juan River basin in the Four Corners region of the American Southwest. Long-term changes in surface water and fish tissue mercury concentrations were also simulated, out to the year 2074.Atmospheric mercury was modeled using a nested, spatial-scale modeling system comprising GEOS-Chem (global scale) and CMAQ-APT (national and regional) models. Four emission scenarios were modeled, including two growth scenarios for Asian mercury emissions. Results showed that the average mercury deposition over the San Juan basin was 21 µg/m2-y. Source contributions to mercury deposition range from 2% to 9% of total deposition prior to post-2016 U.S. controls for air toxics regulatory compliance. Most of the contributions to mercury deposition in the basin are from non-U.S. sources. Watershed simulations showed power plant contributions to fish tissue mercury never exceeded 0.035% during the 85-year model simulation period, even with the long-term growth in fish tissue mercury over that period. Local coal-fired power plants contributed relatively small fractions to mercury deposition (less than 4%) in the basin; background and non-U.S. anthropogenic sources dominated. Fish-tissue mercury levels are projected to increase through 2074 due to growth projections for non-U.S. emission sources. The most important contributor to methylmercury in the lower reaches of the watershed was advection of MeHg produced in situ at upstream headwater locations.

Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide—a synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krysanova, Valentina; Vetter, Tobias; Eisner, Stephanie; Huang, Shaochun; Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Strauch, Michael; Gelfan, Alexander; Kumar, Rohini; Aich, Valentin; Arheimer, Berit; Chamorro, Alejandro; van Griensven, Ann; Kundu, Dipangkar; Lobanova, Anastasia; Mishra, Vimal; Plötner, Stefan; Reinhardt, Julia; Seidou, Ousmane; Wang, Xiaoyan; Wortmann, Michel; Zeng, Xiaofan; Hattermann, Fred F.

2017-10-01

An intercomparison of climate change impacts projected by nine regional-scale hydrological models for 12 large river basins on all continents was performed, and sources of uncertainty were quantified in the framework of the ISIMIP project. The models ECOMAG, HBV, HYMOD, HYPE, mHM, SWAT, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP3 were applied in the following basins: Rhine and Tagus in Europe, Niger and Blue Nile in Africa, Ganges, Lena, Upper Yellow and Upper Yangtze in Asia, Upper Mississippi, MacKenzie and Upper Amazon in America, and Darling in Australia. The model calibration and validation was done using WATCH climate data for the period 1971-2000. The results, evaluated with 14 criteria, are mostly satisfactory, except for the low flow. Climate change impacts were analyzed using projections from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways. Trends in the period 2070-2099 in relation to the reference period 1975-2004 were evaluated for three variables: the long-term mean annual flow and high and low flow percentiles Q 10 and Q 90, as well as for flows in three months high- and low-flow periods denoted as HF and LF. For three river basins: the Lena, MacKenzie and Tagus strong trends in all five variables were found (except for Q 10 in the MacKenzie); trends with moderate certainty for three to five variables were confirmed for the Rhine, Ganges and Upper Mississippi; and increases in HF and LF were found for the Upper Amazon, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow. The analysis of projected streamflow seasonality demonstrated increasing streamflow volumes during the high-flow period in four basins influenced by monsoonal precipitation (Ganges, Upper Amazon, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow), an amplification of the snowmelt flood peaks in the Lena and MacKenzie, and a substantial decrease of discharge in the Tagus (all months). The overall average fractions of uncertainty for the annual mean flow projections in the multi-model ensemble applied for all basins were 57% for GCMs, 27% for RCPs, and 16% for hydrological models.

Simulating the potential effects of climate change in two Colorado basins and at two Colorado ski areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Battaglin, William; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steve

2011-01-01

The mountainous areas of Colorado are used for tourism and recreation, and they provide water storage and supply for municipalities, industries, and agriculture. Recent studies suggest that water supply and tourist industries such as skiing are at risk from climate change. In this study, a distributed-parameter watershed model, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), is used to identify the potential effects of future climate on hydrologic conditions for two Colorado basins, the East River at Almont and the Yampa River at Steamboat Springs, and at the subbasin scale for two ski areas within those basins.Climate-change input files for PRMS were generated by modifying daily PRMS precipitation and temperature inputs with mean monthly climate-change fields of precipitation and temperature derived from five general circulation model (GCM) simulations using one current and three future carbon emission scenarios. All GCM simulations of mean daily minimum and maximum air temperature for the East and Yampa River basins indicate a relatively steady increase of up to several degrees Celsius from baseline conditions by 2094. GCM simulations of precipitation in the two basins indicate little change or trend in precipitation, but there is a large range associated with these projections. PRMS projections of basin mean daily streamflow vary by scenario but indicate a central tendency toward slight decreases, with a large range associated with these projections.Decreases in water content or changes in the spatial extent of snowpack in the East and Yampa River basins are important because of potential adverse effects on water supply and recreational activities. PRMS projections of each future scenario indicate a central tendency for decreases in basin mean snow-covered area and snowpack water equivalent, with the range in the projected decreases increasing with time. However, when examined on a monthly basis, the projected decreases are most dramatic during fall and spring. Presumably, ski area locations are picked because of a tendency to receive snow and keep snowpack relative to the surrounding area. This effect of ski area location within the basin was examined by comparing projections of March snow-covered area and snowpack water equivalent for the entire basin with more local projections for the portion of the basin that represents the ski area in the PRMS models. These projections indicate a steady decrease in March snow-covered area for the basins but only small changes in March snow-covered area at both ski areas for the three future scenarios until around 2050. After 2050, larger decreases are possible, but there is a large range in the projections of future scenarios. The rates of decrease for snowpack water equivalent and precipitation that falls as snow are similar at the basin and subbasin scale in both basins. Results from this modeling effort show that there is a wide range of possible outcomes for future snowpack conditions in Colorado. The results also highlight the differences between projections for entire basins and projections for local areas or subbasins within those basins.

Assessing the influence of climate change and inter-basin water diversion on Haihe River basin, eastern China: a coupled model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Jun; Wang, Qiang; Zhang, Xiang; Wang, Rui; She, Dunxian

2018-04-01

The modeling of changes in surface water and groundwater in the areas of inter-basin water diversion projects is quite difficult because surface water and groundwater models are run separately most of the time and the lack of sufficient data limits the application of complex surface-water/groundwater coupling models based on physical laws, especially for developing countries. In this study, a distributed surface-water and groundwater coupling model, named the distributed time variant gain model-groundwater model (DTVGM-GWM), was used to assess the influence of climate change and inter-basin water diversion on a watershed hydrological cycle. The DTVGM-GWM model can reflect the interaction processes of surface water and groundwater at basin scale. The model was applied to the Haihe River Basin (HRB) in eastern China. The possible influences of climate change and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) on surface water and groundwater in the HRB were analyzed under various scenarios. The results showed that the newly constructed model DTVGM-GWM can reasonably simulate the surface and river runoff, and describe the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of groundwater level, groundwater storage and phreatic recharge. The prediction results under different scenarios showed a decline in annual groundwater exploitation and also runoff in the HRB, while an increase of groundwater storage and groundwater level after the SNWDP's operation. Additionally, as the project also addresses future scenarios, a slight increase is predicted in the actual evapotranspiration, soil water content and phreatic recharge. This study provides valuable insights for developing sustainable groundwater management options for the HRB.

Using Hybrid Techniques for Generating Watershed-scale Flood Models in an Integrated Modeling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saksena, S.; Merwade, V.; Singhofen, P.

2017-12-01

There is an increasing global trend towards developing large scale flood models that account for spatial heterogeneity at watershed scales to drive the future flood risk planning. Integrated surface water-groundwater modeling procedures can elucidate all the hydrologic processes taking part during a flood event to provide accurate flood outputs. Even though the advantages of using integrated modeling are widely acknowledged, the complexity of integrated process representation, computation time and number of input parameters required have deterred its application to flood inundation mapping, especially for large watersheds. This study presents a faster approach for creating watershed scale flood models using a hybrid design that breaks down the watershed into multiple regions of variable spatial resolution by prioritizing higher order streams. The methodology involves creating a hybrid model for the Upper Wabash River Basin in Indiana using Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing (ICPR) and comparing the performance with a fully-integrated 2D hydrodynamic model. The hybrid approach involves simplification procedures such as 1D channel-2D floodplain coupling; hydrologic basin (HUC-12) integration with 2D groundwater for rainfall-runoff routing; and varying spatial resolution of 2D overland flow based on stream order. The results for a 50-year return period storm event show that hybrid model (NSE=0.87) performance is similar to the 2D integrated model (NSE=0.88) but the computational time is reduced to half. The results suggest that significant computational efficiency can be obtained while maintaining model accuracy for large-scale flood models by using hybrid approaches for model creation.

Development and application of downscaled hydroclimatic predictor variables for use in climate vulnerability and assessment studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thorne, James; Boynton, Ryan; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; N'goc Le, Thuy

2012-01-01

This paper outlines the production of 270-meter grid-scale maps for 14 climate and derivative hydrologic variables for a region that encompasses the State of California and all the streams that flow into it. The paper describes the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a map-based, mechanistic model used to process the hydrological variables. Three historic and three future time periods of 30 years (1911–1940, 1941–1970, 1971–2000, 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099) were developed that summarize 180 years of monthly historic and future climate values. These comprise a standardized set of fine-scale climate data that were shared with 14 research groups, including the U.S. National Park Service and several University of California groups as part of this project. We present three analyses done with the outputs from the Basin Characterization Model: trends in hydrologic variables over baseline, the most recent 30-year period; a calibration and validation effort that uses measured discharge values from 139 streamgages and compares those to Basin Characterization Model-derived projections of discharge for the same basins; and an assessment of the trends of specific hydrological variables that links historical trend to projected future change under four future climate projections. Overall, increases in potential evapotranspiration dominate other influences in future hydrologic cycles. Increased potential evapotranspiration drives decreasing runoff even under forecasts with increased precipitation, and drives increased climatic water deficit, which may lead to conversion of dominant vegetation types across large parts of the study region as well as have implications for rain-fed agriculture. The potential evapotranspiration is driven by air temperatures, and the Basin Characterization Model permits it to be integrated with a water balance model that can be derived for landscapes and summarized by watershed. These results show the utility of using a process-based model with modules representing different hydrological pathways that can be inter-linked.

Hydrological characterization of Guadalquivir River Basin for the period 1980-2010 using VIC model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Valdecasas-Ojeda, Matilde; de Franciscis, Sebastiano; Raquel Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Jesús Esteban-Parra, María

2017-04-01

This study analyzes the changes of soil moisture and real evapotranspiration (ETR), during the last 30 years, in the Guadalquivir River Basin, located in the south of the Iberian Peninsula. Soil moisture content is related with the different components of the real evaporation, it is a relevant factor when analyzing the intensity of droughts and heat waves, and particularly, for the impact study of the climate change. The soil moisture and real evapotranspiration data consist of simulations obtained by using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model. This is a large-scale hydrologic model and allows the estimations of different variables in the hydrological system of a basin. Land surface is modeled as a grid of large and uniform cells with sub-grid heterogeneity (e.g. land cover), while water influx is local, only depending from the interaction between grid cell and local atmosphere environment. Observational data of temperature and precipitation from Spain02 dataset have been used as input variables for VIC model. Additionally, estimates of actual evapotranspiration and soil moisture are also analyzed using temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity and radiation as input variables for VIC. These variables are obtained from a dynamical downscaling from ERA-Interim data by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The simulations have a spatial resolution about 9 km and the analysis is done on a seasonal time-scale. Preliminary results show that ETR presents very low values for autumn from WRF simulations compared with VIC simulations. Only significant positive trends are found during autumn for the western part of the basin for the ETR obtained with VIC model, meanwhile no significant trends are found for the ETR WRF simulations. Keywords: Soil moisture, Real evapotranspiration, Guadalquivir Basin, trends, VIC, WRF. Acknowledgements: This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-Spain) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER).

Data-base development for water-quality modeling of the Patuxent River basin, Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisher, G.T.; Summers, R.M.

1987-01-01

Procedures and rationale used to develop a data base and data management system for the Patuxent Watershed Nonpoint Source Water Quality Monitoring and Modeling Program of the Maryland Department of the Environment and the U.S. Geological Survey are described. A detailed data base and data management system has been developed to facilitate modeling of the watershed for water quality planning purposes; statistical analysis; plotting of meteorologic, hydrologic and water quality data; and geographic data analysis. The system is Maryland 's prototype for development of a basinwide water quality management program. A key step in the program is to build a calibrated and verified water quality model of the basin using the Hydrological Simulation Program--FORTRAN (HSPF) hydrologic model, which has been used extensively in large-scale basin modeling. The compilation of the substantial existing data base for preliminary calibration of the basin model, including meteorologic, hydrologic, and water quality data from federal and state data bases and a geographic information system containing digital land use and soils data is described. The data base development is significant in its application of an integrated, uniform approach to data base management and modeling. (Lantz-PTT)

Imaging the Subsurface of the Thuringian Basin (Germany) on Different Spatial Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goepel, A.; Krause, M.; Methe, P.; Kukowski, N.

2014-12-01

Understanding the coupled dynamics of near surface and deep fluid flow patterns is essential to characterize the properties of sedimentary basins, to identify the processes of compaction, diagenesis, and transport of mass and energy. The multidisciplinary project INFLUINS (Integrated FLUid dynamics IN Sedimentary basins) aims for investigating the behavior of fluids in the Thuringian Basin, a small intra-continental sedimentary basin in Germany, at different spatial scales, ranging from the pore scale to the extent of the entire basin. As hydraulic properties often significantly vary with spatial scales, e.g. seismic data using different frequencies are required to gain information about the spatial variability of elastic and hydraulic subsurface properties. For the Thuringian Basin, we use seismic and borehole data acquired in the framework of INFLUINS. Basin-wide structural imaging data are available from 2D reflection seismic profiles as well as 2.5D and 3D seismic travel time tomography. Further, core material from a 1,179 m deep drill hole completed in 2013 is available for laboratory seismic experiments on mm- to cm-scale. The data are complemented with logging data along the entire drill hole. This campaign yielded e.g. sonic and density logs allowing the estimation of in-situ P-velocity and acoustic impedance with a spatial resolution on the cm-scale and provides improved information about petrologic and stratigraphic variability at different scales. Joint interpretation of basin scale structural and elastic properties data with laboratory scale data from ultrasound experiments using core samples enables a detailed and realistic imaging of the subsurface properties on different spatial scales. Combining seismic travel time tomography with stratigraphic interpretation provides useful information of variations in the elastic properties for certain geological units and therefore gives indications for changes in hydraulic properties.

The role of physical habitat and sampling effort on estimates of benthic macroinvertebrate taxonomic richness at basin and site scales.

PubMed

Silva, Déborah R O; Ligeiro, Raphael; Hughes, Robert M; Callisto, Marcos

2016-06-01

Taxonomic richness is one of the most important measures of biological diversity in ecological studies, including those with stream macroinvertebrates. However, it is impractical to measure the true richness of any site directly by sampling. Our objective was to evaluate the effect of sampling effort on estimates of macroinvertebrate family and Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) genera richness at two scales: basin and stream site. In addition, we tried to determine which environmental factors at the site scale most influenced the amount of sampling effort needed. We sampled 39 sites in the Cerrado biome (neotropical savanna). In each site, we obtained 11 equidistant samples of the benthic assemblage and multiple physical habitat measurements. The observed basin-scale richness achieved a consistent estimation from Chao 1, Jack 1, and Jack 2 richness estimators. However, at the site scale, there was a constant increase in the observed number of taxa with increased number of samples. Models that best explained the slope of site-scale sampling curves (representing the necessity of greater sampling effort) included metrics that describe habitat heterogeneity, habitat structure, anthropogenic disturbance, and water quality, for both macroinvertebrate family and EPT genera richness. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering basin- and site-scale sampling effort in ecological surveys and that taxa accumulation curves and richness estimators are good tools for assessing sampling efficiency. The physical habitat explained a significant amount of the sampling effort needed. Therefore, future studies should explore the possible implications of physical habitat characteristics when developing sampling objectives, study designs, and calculating the needed sampling effort.

Effects of natural and human factors on groundwater quality of basin-fill aquifers in the southwestern United States-conceptual models for selected contaminants

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bexfield, Laura M.; Thiros, Susan A.; Anning, David W.; Huntington, Jena M.; McKinney, Tim S.

2011-01-01

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program, the Southwest Principal Aquifers (SWPA) study is building a better understanding of the factors that affect water quality in basin-fill aquifers in the Southwestern United States. The SWPA study area includes four principal aquifers of the United States: the Basin and Range basin-fill aquifers in California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona; the Rio Grande aquifer system in New Mexico and Colorado; and the California Coastal Basin and Central Valley aquifer systems in California. Similarities in the hydrogeology, land- and water-use practices, and water-quality issues for alluvial basins within the study area allow for regional analysis through synthesis of the baseline knowledge of groundwater-quality conditions in basins previously studied by the NAWQA Program. Resulting improvements in the understanding of the sources, movement, and fate of contaminants are assisting in the development of tools used to assess aquifer susceptibility and vulnerability.This report synthesizes previously published information about the groundwater systems and water quality of 15 information-rich basin-fill aquifers (SWPA case-study basins) into conceptual models of the primary natural and human factors commonly affecting groundwater quality with respect to selected contaminants, thereby helping to build a regional understanding of the susceptibility and vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers to those contaminants. Four relatively common contaminants (dissolved solids, nitrate, arsenic, and uranium) and two contaminant classes (volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and pesticide compounds) were investigated for sources and controls affecting their occurrence and distribution above specified levels of concern in groundwater of the case-study basins. Conceptual models of factors that are important to aquifer vulnerability with respect to those contaminants and contaminant classes were subsequently formed. The conceptual models are intended in part to provide a foundation for subsequent development of regional-scale statistical models that relate specific constituent concentrations or occurrence in groundwater to natural and human factors.

Multi-scale constraints of sediment source to sink systems in frontier basins: a forward stratigraphic modeling case study of the Levant region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawie, Nicolas; Deschamps, Remy; Granjeon, Didier; Nader, Fadi-Henri; Gorini, Christian; Müller, Carla; Montadert, Lucien; Baudin, François

2015-04-01

Recent scientific work underlined the presence of a thick Cenozoic infill in the Levant Basin reaching up to 12 km. Interestingly; restricted sedimentation was observed along the Levant margin in the Cenozoic. Since the Late Eocene successive regional geodynamic events affecting Afro-Arabia and Eurasia (collision and strike slip deformation)induced fast marginal uplifts. The initiation of local and long-lived regional drainage systems in the Oligo-Miocene period (e.g. Lebanon versus Nile) provoked a change in the depositional pattern along the Levant margin and basin. A shift from carbonate dominated environments into clastic rich systems has been observed. Through this communication we explore the importance of multi-scale constraints (i.e.,seismic, well and field data) in the quantification of the subsidence history, sediment transport and deposition of a Middle-Upper Miocene "multi-source" to sink system along the northernLevant frontier region. We prove through a comprehensive forward stratigraphic modeling workflow that the contribution to the infill of the northern Levant Basin (offshore Lebanon) is split in between proximal and more distal clastic sources as well as in situ carbonate/hemipelagic deposition. In a wider perspective this work falls under the umbrella of multi-disciplinary source to sink studies that investigate the impact of geodynamic events on basin/margin architectural evolutions, consequent sedimentary infill and thus on petroleum systems assessment.

On the Fidelity of Semi-distributed Hydrologic Model Simulations for Large Scale Catchment Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajami, H.; Sharma, A.; Lakshmi, V.

2017-12-01

Application of semi-distributed hydrologic modeling frameworks is a viable alternative to fully distributed hyper-resolution hydrologic models due to computational efficiency and resolving fine-scale spatial structure of hydrologic fluxes and states. However, fidelity of semi-distributed model simulations is impacted by (1) formulation of hydrologic response units (HRUs), and (2) aggregation of catchment properties for formulating simulation elements. Here, we evaluate the performance of a recently developed Soil Moisture and Runoff simulation Toolkit (SMART) for large catchment scale simulations. In SMART, topologically connected HRUs are delineated using thresholds obtained from topographic and geomorphic analysis of a catchment, and simulation elements are equivalent cross sections (ECS) representative of a hillslope in first order sub-basins. Earlier investigations have shown that formulation of ECSs at the scale of a first order sub-basin reduces computational time significantly without compromising simulation accuracy. However, the implementation of this approach has not been fully explored for catchment scale simulations. To assess SMART performance, we set-up the model over the Little Washita watershed in Oklahoma. Model evaluations using in-situ soil moisture observations show satisfactory model performance. In addition, we evaluated the performance of a number of soil moisture disaggregation schemes recently developed to provide spatially explicit soil moisture outputs at fine scale resolution. Our results illustrate that the statistical disaggregation scheme performs significantly better than the methods based on topographic data. Future work is focused on assessing the performance of SMART using remotely sensed soil moisture observations using spatially based model evaluation metrics.

Landscape Level Carbon and Water Balances and Agricultural Production in Mountainous Terrain of the Haean Basin, South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, B.; Geyer, R.; Seo, B.; Lindner, S.; Walther, G.; Tenhunen, J. D.

2009-12-01

The process-based spatial simulation model PIXGRO was used to estimate gross primary production, ecosystem respiration, net ecosystem CO2 exchange and water use by forest and crop fields of Haean Basin, South Korea at landscape scale. Simulations are run for individual years from early spring to late fall, providing estimates for dry land crops and rice paddies with respect to carbon gain, biomass and leaf area development, allocation of photoproducts to the belowground ecosystem compartment, and harvest yields. In the case of deciduous oak forests, gas exchange is estimated, but spatial simulation of growth over the single annual cycles is not included. Spatial parameterization of the model is derived for forest LAI based on remote sensing, for forest and cropland fluxes via eddy covariance and chamber studies, for soil characteristics by generalization from spatial surveys, for climate drivers by generalizing observations at ca. 20 monitoring stations distributed throughout the basin and along the elevation gradient from 500 to 1000 m, and for incident radiation via modelling of the radiation components in complex terrain. Validation of the model is being carried out at point scale based on comparison of model output at selected locations with observations as well as with known trends in ecosystem response documented in the literature. The resulting modelling tool is useful for estimation of ecosystem services at landscape scale, first expressed as kg ha-1 crop yield, but via future cooperative studies also in terms of monetary gain to individual farms and farming cooperatives applying particular management strategies.

Selecting quantitative water management measures at the river basin scale in a global change context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girard, Corentin; Rinaudo, Jean-Daniel; Caballero, Yvan; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2013-04-01

One of the main challenges in the implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) in the European Union is the definition of programme of measures to reach the good status of the European water bodies. In areas where water scarcity is an issue, one of these challenges is the selection of water conservation and capacity expansion measures to ensure minimum environmental in-stream flow requirements. At the same time, the WFD calls for the use of economic analysis to identify the most cost-effective combination of measures at the river basin scale to achieve its objective. With this respect, hydro-economic river basin models, by integrating economics, environmental and hydrological aspects at the river basin scale in a consistent framework, represent a promising approach. This article presents a least-cost river basin optimization model (LCRBOM) that selects the combination of quantitative water management measures to meet environmental flows for future scenarios of agricultural and urban demand taken into account the impact of the climate change. The model has been implemented in a case study on a Mediterranean basin in the south of France, the Orb River basin. The water basin has been identified as in need for quantitative water management measures in order to reach the good status of its water bodies. The LCRBOM has been developed using GAMS, applying Mixed Integer Linear Programming. It is run to select the set of measures that minimizes the total annualized cost of the applied measures, while meeting the demands and minimum in-stream flow constraints. For the economic analysis, the programme of measures is composed of water conservation measures on agricultural and urban water demands. It compares them with measures mobilizing new water resources coming from groundwater, inter-basin transfers and improvement in reservoir operating rules. The total annual cost of each measure is calculated for each demand unit considering operation, maintenance and investment costs. The results show that by combining quantitative water management measures, the flow regime can be improved to better mimic the natural flow regime. However, the acceptability of the higher cost of the program of measures is not yet assessed. Other stages such as stakeholder participation and negotiation processes are as well required to design an acceptable programme of measures. For this purpose, this type of model opens the path to investigate the problems of equity issues, and measures and costs allocation among the stakeholders of the basin. Acknowledgments: The study has been partially supported by the Hérault General Council, the Languedoc-Rousillon Regional Council, the Rhône Mediterranean Corsica Water Agency and the BRGM, as well as the European Community 7th Framework Project GENESIS (n. 226536) on groundwater systems, and the Plan Nacional I+D+I 2008-2011 of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (subprojects CGL2009-13238-C02-01 and CGL2009-13238-C02-02).

The trend of the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, P.; Yu, Z.

2011-12-01

Hydrological problems like estimation of flood and drought frequencies under future climate change are not well addressed as a result of the disability of current climate models to provide reliable prediction (especially for precipitation) shorter than 1 month. In order to assess the possible impacts that multi-scale temporal distribution of precipitation may have on the hydrological processes in Colorado River Basin (CRB), a comparative analysis of multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation as well as the trend of extreme precipitation is conducted in four regions controlled by different climate systems. Multi-scale precipitation variability including within-storm patterns and intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variabilities will be analyzed to explore the possible trends of storm durations, inter-storm periods, average storm precipitation intensities and extremes under both long-term natural climate variability and human-induced warming. Further more, we will examine the ability of current climate models to simulate the multi-scale temporal variability and extremes of precipitation. On the basis of these analyses, a statistical downscaling method will be developed to disaggregate the future precipitation scenarios which will provide a more reliable and finer temporal scale precipitation time series for hydrological modeling. Analysis results and downscaling results will be presented.

Diagnosis of the hydrology of a small Arctic basin at the tundra-taiga transition using a physically based hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krogh, Sebastian A.; Pomeroy, John W.; Marsh, Philip

2017-07-01

A better understanding of cold regions hydrological processes and regimes in transitional environments is critical for predicting future Arctic freshwater fluxes under climate and vegetation change. A physically based hydrological model using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model platform was created for a small Arctic basin in the tundra-taiga transition region. The model represents snow redistribution and sublimation by wind and vegetation, snowmelt energy budget, evapotranspiration, subsurface flow through organic terrain, infiltration to frozen soils, freezing and thawing of soils, permafrost and streamflow routing. The model was used to reconstruct the basin water cycle over 28 years to understand and quantify the mass fluxes controlling its hydrological regime. Model structure and parameters were set from the current understanding of Arctic hydrology, remote sensing, field research in the basin and region, and calibration against streamflow observations. Calibration was restricted to subsurface hydraulic and storage parameters. Multi-objective evaluation of the model using observed streamflow, snow accumulation and ground freeze/thaw state showed adequate simulation. Significant spatial variability in the winter mass fluxes was found between tundra, shrubs and forested sites, particularly due to the substantial blowing snow redistribution and sublimation from the wind-swept upper basin, as well as sublimation of canopy intercepted snow from the forest (about 17% of snowfall). At the basin scale, the model showed that evapotranspiration is the largest loss of water (47%), followed by streamflow (39%) and sublimation (14%). The models streamflow performance sensitivity to a set of parameter was analysed, as well as the mean annual mass balance uncertainty associated with these parameters.

Steady-state numerical groundwater flow model of the Great Basin carbonate and alluvial aquifer system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brooks, Lynette E.; Masbruch, Melissa D.; Sweetkind, Donald S.; Buto, Susan G.

2014-01-01

Examples of potential use of the model to investigate the groundwater system include (1) the effects of different recharge, (2) different interpretations of the extent or offset of long faults or fault zones, and (3) different conceptual models of the spatial variation of hydraulic properties. The model can also be used to examine the ultimate effects of groundwater withdrawals on a regional scale, to provide boundary conditions for local-scale models, and to guide data collection.

Scale effect and value criterion of the permeability of the interlayer staggered zones in the basalt of Jinsha River basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Zhifang; Lin, Mu; Guo, Qiaona; Chen, Meng

2018-05-01

The hydrogeological characteristics of structural planes are different to those of the associated bedrock. The permeability, and therefore hydraulic conductivity (K), of a structural plane can be significantly different at different scales. The interlayer staggered zones in the Emeishan Basalt of early Late Permian were studied; this formation is located in the Baihetan hydropower project area in Jinsha River Basin, China. The seepage flow distribution of a solid model and two generalized models (A and B) were computed using COMSOL. The K values of the interlayer staggered zones for all three models were calculated by both simulation and analytical methods. The results show that the calculated K results of the generalized models can reflect the variation trend of permeability in each section of the solid model, and the approximate analytical calculation of K can be taken into account in the calculation of K in the generalized models instead of that found by simulation. Further studies are needed to investigate permeability variation in the interlayer staggered zones under the condition of different scales, considering the scaling variation in each section of an interlayer staggered zone. The permeability of each section of an interlayer staggered zone presents a certain degree of dispersivity at small scales; however, the permeability values tends to converge to a similar value as the scale of each section increases. The regularity of each section of the interlayer staggered zones under the condition of different scales can provide a scientific basis for reasonable selection of different engineering options.

A boundary condition for layer to level ocean model interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mask, A.; O'Brien, J.; Preller, R.

2003-04-01

A radiation boundary condition based on vertical normal modes is introduced to allow a physical transition between nested/coupled ocean models that are of differing vertical structure and/or differing physics. In this particular study, a fine resolution regional/coastal sigma-coordinate Naval Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) has been successfully nested to a coarse resolution (in the horizontal and vertical) basin scale NCOM and a coarse resolution basin scale Navy Layered Ocean Model (NLOM). Both of these models were developed at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) at Stennis Space Center, Mississippi, USA. This new method, which decomposes the vertical structure of the models into barotropic and baroclinic modes, gives improved results in the coastal domain over Orlanski radiation boundary conditions for the test cases. The principle reason for the improvement is that each mode has the radiation boundary condition applied individually; therefore, the packet of information passing through the boundary is allowed to have multiple phase speeds instead of a single-phase speed. Allowing multiple phase speeds reduces boundary reflections, thus improving results.

Large scale spatially explicit modeling of blue and green water dynamics in a temperate mid-latitude basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Liuying; Rajib, Adnan; Merwade, Venkatesh

2018-07-01

Looking only at climate change impacts provides partial information about a changing hydrologic regime. Understanding the spatio-temporal nature of change in hydrologic processes, and the explicit contributions from both climate and land use drivers, holds more practical value for water resources management and policy intervention. This study presents a comprehensive assessment on the spatio-temporal trend of Blue Water (BW) and Green Water (GW) in a 490,000 km2 temperate mid-latitude basin (Ohio River Basin) over the past 80 years (1935-2014), and from thereon, quantifies the combined as well as relative contributions of climate and land use changes. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is adopted to simulate hydrologic fluxes. Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen statistical tests are performed on the modeled outputs to detect respectively the trend and magnitude of changes at three different spatial scales - the entire basin, regional level, and sub-basin level. Despite the overall volumetric increase of both BW and GW in the entire basin, changes in their annual average values during the period of simulation reveal a distinctive spatial pattern. GW has increased significantly in the upper and lower parts of the basin, which can be related to the prominent land use change in those areas. BW has increased significantly only in the lower part, likely being associated with the notable precipitation change there. Furthermore, the simulation under a time-varying climate but constant land use scenario identifies climate change in the Ohio River Basin to be influential on BW, while the impact is relatively nominal on GW; whereas, land use change increases GW remarkably, but is counterproductive on BW. The approach to quantify combined/relative effects of climate and land use change as shown in this study can be replicated to understand BW-GW dynamics in similar large basins around the globe.

The Tethys Rifting of the Valencia Trough Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viñas, Marina; Ranero, César R.; Cameselle, Alejandra L.

2017-04-01

The western Mediterranean submarine realm is composed of several basin inferred to be formed by a common geodynamic process: upper plate extension during slab rollback of a retreating subduction zone. Although the time evolution of the geometry of the trenches is debated, all models assume that basins opened sequentially from NW (Gulf of Lions) towards the SE (Ligurian-Provençal and later Tyrrhenian basins) and SW (Valencia Trough and later Algerian-South Balearic and Alboran Basin) as trenches migrated. Basin opening history is key to reconstruct kinematics of slab retreat preferred in each model. However, the deep structure of basins is inadequately known due to the paucity of modern wide-angle and multichannel reflection seismic studies across entire systems, and absence of deep drilling in the deep-water regions of the basins, as a result, much of the opening evolution is inferred from indirect evidence. In the Valencia Trough Basin (VTB), drilling and vintage seismic data provide good knowledge of the shallow geology of the basin. However, crustal-scale information across the entire VTB has been limited to two studies (Figure 1): One in the late 80's (Valsis experiment) with three Expanded Spread Profiles that yielded local 1D velocity/depth models used to constrain 2D gravity modeling, and a few multichannel seismic profiles along the Iberian shelf and across segments of the basin. A second study in the early 90's (ESCI experiment) collected a low-resolution deep-penetration multichannel seismic reflection profile across the basin and a coincident wide-angle seismic line with numerous land stations in Iberia but a handful of widely-spaced Ocean Bottom Seismometers. In the absence of modern detailed crustal structure, the origin and evolution of the VTB is still debated. Industry multichannel seismic reflection profiles cover the SW segment of the VTB. This is a region where the basin sea floor is comparatively shallower and has numerous industry wells reaching deep into the sediment sequence, which provides an unprecedented view of the tectonic structure and distribution of synrift deposits across the entire basin, from the Iberian to the North Balearic margin (Figure 2). Here we first show that the seismic records provide full crustal-scale information. Later we discuss the tectonic and sedimentary structure that supports that crustal stretching and basin formation of the VTB occurred fundamentally during the Mesozoic times by strike-slip tectonics and not during Tertiary times by back-arc extension. We show that the current sea floor morphological configuration giving rise to the so-called Valencia Trough does not represent the changes in crystalline basement thickness related to rifting, but fundamentally a product of sediment dynamics, particularly by the development during post-Messinian times of the Ebro-river delta. Our results are significant to understand Tethyan rifting and need to be considered for plate kinematic reconstructions of the western Mediterranean.

Wind driven general circulation of the Mediterranean Sea simulated with a Spectral Element Ocean Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molcard, A.; Pinardi, N.; Iskandarani, M.; Haidvogel, D. B.

2002-05-01

This work is an attempt to simulate the Mediterranean Sea general circulation with a Spectral Finite Element Model. This numerical technique associates the geometrical flexibility of the finite elements for the proper coastline definition with the precision offered by spectral methods. The model is reduced gravity and we study the wind-driven ocean response in order to explain the large scale sub-basin gyres and their variability. The study period goes from January 1987 to December 1993 and two forcing data sets are used. The effect of wind variability in space and time is analyzed and the relationship between wind stress curl and ocean response is stressed. Some of the main permanent structures of the general circulation (Gulf of Lions cyclonic gyre, Rhodes gyre, Gulf of Syrte anticylone) are shown to be induced by permanent wind stress curl structures. The magnitude and spatial variability of the wind is important in determining the appearance or disappearance of some gyres (Tyrrhenian anticyclonic gyre, Balearic anticyclonic gyre, Ionian cyclonic gyre). An EOF analysis of the seasonal variability indicates that the weakening and strengthening of the Levantine basin boundary currents is a major component of the seasonal cycle in the basin. The important discovery is that seasonal and interannual variability peak at the same spatial scales in the ocean response and that the interannual variability includes the change in amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle in the sub-basin scale gyres and boundary currents. The Coriolis term in the vorticity balance seems to be responsible for the weakening of anticyclonic structures and their total disappearance when they are close to a boundary. The process of adjustment to winds produces a train of coastally trapped gravity waves which travel around the eastern and western basins, respectively in approximately 6 months. This corresponds to a phase velocity for the wave of about 1 m/s, comparable to an average velocity of an internal Kelvin wave in the area.

Drainage Basins as Large-Scale Field Laboratories of Change: Hydro-biogeochemical- economic Model Study Support for Water Pollution and Eutrophication Management Under Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Destouni, G.

2008-12-01

Excess nutrient and pollutant releases from various point and diffuse sources at and below the land surface, associated with land use, industry and households, pose serious eutrophication and pollution risks to inland and coastal water ecosystems worldwide. These risks must be assessed, for instance according to the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). The WFD demands economically efficient, basin-scale water management for achieving and maintaining good physico-chemical and ecological status in all the inland and coastal waters of EU member states. This paper synthesizes a series of hydro-biogeochemical and linked economic efficiency studies of basin-scale waterborne nutrient and pollutant flows, the development over the last decades up to the current levels of these flows, the main monitoring and modelling uncertainties associated with their quantification, and the effectiveness and economic efficiency of different possible abatement strategies for abating them in order to meet WFD requirements and other environmental goals on local, national and international levels under climate and other regional change. The studies include different Swedish and Baltic Sea drainage basins. Main findings include quantification of near-coastal monitoring gaps and long-term nutrient and pollutant memory in the subsurface (soil-groundwater-sediment) water systems of drainage basins. The former may significantly mask nutrient and pollutant loads to the sea while the latter may continue to uphold large loads to inland and coastal waters long time after source mitigation. A methodology is presented for finding a rational trade-off between the two resource-demanding options to reduce, or accept and explicitly account for the uncertainties implied by these monitoring gaps and long-term nutrient-pollution memories and time lags, and other knowledge, data and model uncertainties that limit the effectiveness and efficiency of water pollution and eutrophication management.

Lithospheric rheological heterogeneity across an intraplate rift basin (Linfen Basin, North China) constrained from magnetotelluric data: Implications for seismicity and rift evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yaotian; Jin, Sheng; Wei, Wenbo; Ye, Gaofeng; Jing, Jian'en; Zhang, Letian; Dong, Hao; Xie, Chengliang; Liang, Hongda

2017-10-01

We take the Linfen Basin, which is the most active segment of the Cenozoic intraplate Shanxi Rift, as an example, showing how to use magnetotelluric data to constrain lithospheric rheological heterogeneities of intraplate tectonic zones. Electrical resistivity models, combined with previous rheological numerical simulation, show a good correlation between resistivity and rheological strength, indicating the mechanisms of enhanced conductivity could also be reasons of reduced viscosity. The crust beneath the Linfen Basin shows overall stratified features in both electrical resistivity and rheology. The uppermost crustal conductive layer is dominated by friction sliding-type brittle fracturing. The high-resistivity mid-crust is inferred to be high-viscosity metamorphic basement being intersected by deep fault. The plastic lower crust show significantly high-conductivity feature. Seismicity appears to be controlled by crustal rheological heterogeneity. Micro-earthquakes mainly distribute at the brittle-ductile transition zones as indicated by high- to low-resistivity interfaces or the high pore pressure fault zones while the epicenters of two giant destructive historical earthquakes occur within the high-resistivity and therefore high-strength blocks near the inferred rheological interfaces. The lithosphere-scale lateral rheological heterogeneity along the profile can also be illustrated. The crust and upper mantle beneath the Ordos Block, Lüliang Mountains and Taihang Mountains are of high rheological strength as indicated by large-scale high-resistivity zones while a significant high-conductivity, lithosphere-scale weak zone exists beneath the eastern margin of the Linfen Basin. According to previous geodynamic modeling works, we suggest that this kind of lateral rheological heterogeneity may play an essential role for providing driving force for the formation and evolution of the Shanxi Rift, regional lithospheric deformation and earthquake activities under the far-field effects of the India-Eurasian Collision.

Sierra Nevada snowpack and runoff prediction integrating basin-wide wireless-sensor network data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Y.; Conklin, M. H.; Bales, R. C.; Zhang, Z.; Zheng, Z.; Glaser, S. D.

2016-12-01

We focus on characterizing snowpack and estimating runoff from snowmelt in high elevation area (>2100 m) in Sierra Nevada for daily (for use in, e.g. flood and hydropower forecasting), seasonal (supply prediction), and decadal (long-term planning) time scale. Here, basin-wide wireless-sensor network data (ARHO, http://glaser.berkeley.edu/wsn/) is integrated into the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and a case study of the American River basin is presented. In the American River basin, over 140 wireless sensors have been planted in 14 sites considering elevation gradient, slope, aspect, and vegetation density, which provides spatially distributed snow depth, temperature, solar radiation, and soil moisture from 2013. 800 m daily gridded dataset (PRISM) is used as the climate input for the PRMS. Model parameters are obtained from various sources (e.g., NLCD 2011, SSURGO, and NED) with a regionalization method and GIS analysis. We use a stepwise framework for a model calibration to improve model performance and localities of estimates. For this, entire basin is divided into 12 subbasins that include full natural flow measurements. The study period is between 1982 and 2014, which contains three major storm events and recent severe drought. Simulated snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) are initially compared with the water year 2014 ARHO observations. The overall results show reasonable agreements having the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS) of 0.7, ranged from 0.3 to 0.86. However, the results indicate a tendency to underestimate the SWE in a high elevation area compared with ARHO observations, which is caused by the underestimated PRISM precipitation data. Precipitation at gauge-sparse regions (e.g., high elevation area), in general, cannot be well represented in gridded datasets. Streamflow estimates of the basin outlet have NS of 0.93, percent bias of 7.8%, and normalized root mean square error of 3.6% for the monthly time scale.

Dam Construction in Lancang-Mekong River Basin Could Mitigate Future Flood Risk From Warming-Induced Intensified Rainfall: Dam Mitigate Flood Risk in Mekong

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Wei; Lu, Hui; Ruby Leung, L.

Water resources management, in particular flood control, in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) faces two key challenges in the 21st century: climate change and dam construction. A large scale distributed Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model coupled with a simple reservoir regulation model (GBHM-MK-SOP) is used to investigate the relative effects of climate change and dam construction on the flood characteristics in the MRB. Results suggest an increase in both flood magnitude and frequency under climate change, which is more severe in the upstream basin and increases over time. However, dam construction and stream regulation reduce flood risk consistently throughout this century, withmore » more obvious effects in the upstream basin where larger reservoirs will be located. The flood mitigation effect of dam regulation dominates over the flood intensification effect of climate change before 2060, but the latter emerges more prominently after 2060 and dominates the flood risk especially in the lower basin.« less

Dam Construction in Lancang-Mekong River Basin Could Mitigate Future Flood Risk From Warming-Induced Intensified Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wei; Lu, Hui; Ruby Leung, L.; Li, Hong-Yi; Zhao, Jianshi; Tian, Fuqiang; Yang, Kun; Sothea, Khem

2017-10-01

Water resources management, in particular flood control, in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB) faces two key challenges in the 21st century: climate change and dam construction. A large-scale distributed Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model coupled with a simple reservoir regulation model (GBHM-LMK-SOP) is used to investigate the relative effects of climate change and dam construction on the flood characteristics in the LMRB. Results suggest an increase in both flood magnitude and frequency under climate change, which is more severe in the upstream basin and increases over time. However, stream regulation by dam reduces flood risk consistently throughout this century, with more obvious effects in the upstream basin where larger reservoirs will be located. The flood mitigation effect of dam regulation dominates over the flood intensification effect of climate change before 2060, but the latter emerges more prominently after 2060 and dominates the flood risk especially in the lower basin.

Exploring the water storage changes in the largest lake (Selin Co) over the Tibetan Plateau during 2003-2012 from a basin-wide hydrological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Jing; Wang, Lei; Zhang, Yinsheng; Guo, Yanhong

2016-04-01

Lake water storage change (DSw) is an important indicator of the hydrologic cycle and greatly influences lake expansion/shrinkage over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Accurate estimation of DSw will contribute to improved understanding of lake variations in the TP. Based on a water balance, this study explored the variations of DSw for the Lake Selin Co (the largest closed lake on the TP) during 2003-2012 using the Water and Energy Budget-based Distributed Hydrological Model (WEB-DHM) together with two different evapotranspiration (ET) algorithms (the Penman-Monteith method and a simple sublimation estimation approach for water area in unfrozen and frozen period). The contributions of basin discharge and climate causes to the DSw are also quantitatively analyzed. The results showed that WEB-DHM could well reproduce daily discharge, the spatial pattern, and basin-averaged values of MODIS land surface temperature (LST) during nighttime and daytime. Compared with the ET reference values estimated from the basin-wide water balance, our ET estimates showed better performance than three global ET products in reproducing basin-averaged ET. The modeled ET at point scale matches well with short-term in situ daily measurements (RMSE=0.82 mm/d). Lake inflows and precipitation over the water area had stronger relationships with DSw in the warm season and monthly scale, whereas evaporation from the water area had remarkable effects on DSw in the cold season. The total contribution of the three factors to DSw was about 90%, and accounting for 49.5%, 22.1%, and 18.3%, respectively.

3-D basin-scale reconstruction of natural gas hydrate system of the Green Canyon, Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burwicz, Ewa; Reichel, Thomas; Wallmann, Klaus; Rottke, Wolf; Haeckel, Matthias; Hensen, Christian

2017-05-01

Our study presents a basin-scale 3-D modeling solution, quantifying and exploring gas hydrate accumulations in the marine environment around the Green Canyon (GC955) area, Gulf of Mexico. It is the first modeling study that considers the full complexity of gas hydrate formation in a natural geological system. Overall, it comprises a comprehensive basin reconstruction, accounting for depositional and transient thermal history of the basin, source rock maturation, petroleum components generation, expulsion and migration, salt tectonics, and associated multistage fault development. The resulting 3-D gas hydrate distribution in the Green Canyon area is consistent with independent borehole observations. An important mechanism identified in this study and leading to high gas hydrate saturation (>80 vol %) at the base of the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) is the recycling of gas hydrate and free gas enhanced by high Neogene sedimentation rates in the region. Our model predicts the rapid development of secondary intrasalt minibasins situated on top of the allochthonous salt deposits which leads to significant sediment subsidence and an ensuing dislocation of the lower GHSZ boundary. Consequently, large amounts of gas hydrates located in the deepest parts of the basin dissociate and the released free methane gas migrates upward to recharge the GHSZ. In total, we have predicted the gas hydrate budget for the Green Canyon area that amounts to ˜3256 Mt of gas hydrate, which is equivalent to ˜340 Mt of carbon (˜7 × 1011 m3 of CH4 at STP conditions), and consists mostly of biogenic hydrates.

Streamflow model of the six-country transboundary Ganges-Bhramaputra and Meghna river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, K.; Lehmann, A.; Dennedy-Frank, P. J.; Gorelick, S.

2014-12-01

Extremely large-scale river basin modelling remains a challenge for water resources planning in the developing world. Such planning is particularly difficult in the developing world because of the lack of data on both natural (climatological, hydrological) processes and complex anthropological influences. We simulate three enormous river basins located in south Asia. The Ganges-Bhramaputra and Meghna (GBM) River Basins cover an area of 1.75 million km2 associated with 6 different countries, including the Bengal delta, which is the most densely populated delta in the world with ~600 million people. We target this developing region to better understand the hydrological system and improve water management planning in these transboundary watersheds. This effort uses the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate streamflow in the GBM River Basins and assess the use of global climatological datasets for such large scale river modeling. We evaluate the utility of three global rainfall datasets to reproduce measured river discharge: the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) from NASA, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, and the World Metrological Organization (WMO) reanalysis. We use global datasets for spatial information as well: 90m DEM from the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission, 300m GlobCover land use maps, and 1000 km FAO soil map. We find that SWAT discharge estimates match the observed streamflow well (NSE=0.40-0.66, R2=0.60-0.70) when using meteorological estimates from the NCEP reanalysis. However, SWAT estimates diverge from observed discharge when using meteorological estimates from TRMM and the WMO reanalysis.

Snow Depth Mapping at a Basin-Wide Scale in the Western Arctic Using UAS Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Jong, T.; Marsh, P.; Mann, P.; Walker, B.

2015-12-01

Assessing snow depths across the Arctic has proven to be extremely difficult due to the variability of snow depths at scales from metres to 100's of metres. New Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) technology provides the possibility to obtain centimeter level resolution imagery (~3cm), and to create Digital Surface Models (DSM) based on the Structure from Motion method. However, there is an ongoing need to quantify the accuracy of this method over different terrain and vegetation types across the Arctic. In this study, we used a small UAS equipped with a high resolution RGB camera to create DSMs over a 1 km2 watershed in the western Canadian Arctic during snow (end of winter) and snow-free periods. To improve the image georeferencing, 15 Ground Control Points were marked across the watershed and incorporated into the DSM processing. The summer DSM was subtracted from the snowcovered DSM to deliver snow depth measurements across the entire watershed. These snow depth measurements were validated by over 2000 snow depth measurements. This technique has the potential to improve larger scale snow depth mapping across watersheds by providing snow depth measurements at a ~3 cm . The ability of mapping both shallow snow (less than 75cm) covering much of the basin and snow patches (up to 5 m in depth) that cover less than 10% of the basin, but contain a significant portion of total basin snowcover, is important for both water resource applications, as well as for testing snow models.

Global energy and water cycle experiment (GEWEX) continental-scale international project (GCIP); reference data sets CD-ROM

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rea, Alan; Cederstrand, Joel R.

1994-01-01

The data sets on this compact disc are a compilation of several geographic reference data sets of interest to the global-change research community. The data sets were chosen with input from the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project (GCIP) Data Committee and the GCIP Hydrometeorology and Atmospheric Subpanels. The data sets include: locations and periods of record for stream gages, reservoir gages, and meteorological stations; a 500-meter-resolution digital elevation model; grid-node locations for the Eta numerical weather-prediction model; and digital map data sets of geology, land use, streams, large reservoirs, average annual runoff, average annual precipitation, average annual temperature, average annual heating and cooling degree days, hydrologic units, and state and county boundaries. Also included are digital index maps for LANDSAT scenes, and for the U.S. Geological Survey 1:250,000, 1:100,000, and 1:24,000-scale map series. Most of the data sets cover the conterminous United States; the digital elevation model also includes part of southern Canada. The stream and reservoir gage and meteorological station files cover all states having area within the Mississippi River Basin plus that part of the Mississippi River Basin lying within Canada. Several data-base retrievals were processed by state, therefore many sites outside the Mississippi River Basin are included.

A probabilistic approach for shallow rainfall-triggered landslide modeling at basin scale. A case study in the Luquillo Forest, Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dialynas, Y. G.; Arnone, E.; Noto, L. V.; Bras, R. L.

2013-12-01

Slope stability depends on geotechnical and hydrological factors that exhibit wide natural spatial variability, yet sufficient measurements of the related parameters are rarely available over entire study areas. The uncertainty associated with the inability to fully characterize hydrologic behavior has an impact on any attempt to model landslide hazards. This work suggests a way to systematically account for this uncertainty in coupled distributed hydrological-stability models for shallow landslide hazard assessment. A probabilistic approach for the prediction of rainfall-triggered landslide occurrence at basin scale was implemented in an existing distributed eco-hydrological and landslide model, tRIBS-VEGGIE -landslide (Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator - VEGetation Generator for Interactive Evolution). More precisely, we upgraded tRIBS-VEGGIE- landslide to assess the likelihood of shallow landslides by accounting for uncertainty related to geotechnical and hydrological factors that directly affect slope stability. Natural variability of geotechnical soil characteristics was considered by randomizing soil cohesion and friction angle. Hydrological uncertainty related to the estimation of matric suction was taken into account by considering soil retention parameters as correlated random variables. The probability of failure is estimated through an assumed theoretical Factor of Safety (FS) distribution, conditioned on soil moisture content. At each cell, the temporally variant FS statistics are approximated by the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method, as a function of parameters statistical properties. The model was applied on the Rio Mameyes Basin, located in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico, where previous landslide analyses have been carried out. At each time step, model outputs include the probability of landslide occurrence across the basin, and the most probable depth of failure at each soil column. The use of the proposed probabilistic approach for shallow landslide prediction is able to reveal and quantify landslide risk at slopes assessed as stable by simpler deterministic methods.

Agriculture and groundwater nitrate contamination in the Seine basin. The STICS-MODCOU modelling chain.

PubMed

Ledoux, E; Gomez, E; Monget, J M; Viavattene, C; Viennot, P; Ducharne, A; Benoit, M; Mignolet, C; Schott, C; Mary, B

2007-04-01

A software package is presented here to predict the fate of nitrogen fertilizers and the transport of nitrate from the rooting zone of agricultural areas to surface water and groundwater in the Seine basin, taking into account the long residence times of water and nitrate in the unsaturated and aquifer systems. Information on pedological characteristics, land use and farming practices is used to determine the spatial units to be considered. These data are converted into input data for the crop model STICS which simulates the water and nitrogen balances in the soil-plant system with a daily time-step. A spatial application of STICS has been derived at the catchment scale which computes the water and nitrate fluxes at the bottom of the rooting zone. These fluxes are integrated into a surface and groundwater coupled model MODCOU which calculates the daily water balance in the hydrological system, the flow in the rivers and the piezometric variations in the aquifers, using standard climatic data (rainfall, PET). The transport of nitrate and the evolution of nitrate contamination in groundwater and to rivers is computed by the model NEWSAM. This modelling chain is a valuable tool to predict the evolution of crop productivity and nitrate contamination according to various scenarios modifying farming practices and/or climatic changes. Data for the period 1970-2000 are used to simulate the past evolution of nitrogen contamination. The method has been validated using available data bases of nitrate concentrations in the three main aquifers of the Paris basin (Oligocene, Eocene and chalk). The approach has then been used to predict the future evolution of nitrogen contamination up to 2015. A statistical approach allowed estimating the probability of transgression of different concentration thresholds in various areas in the basin. The model is also used to evaluate the cost of the damage resulting of the treatment of drinking water at the scale of a groundwater management unit in the Seine river basin.

Combined Detrital U/Pb Zircon and 40Ar/39Ar Mica Geoochronology to Test Structural Models for a Devonian Orogenic Collapse Basin in the Norwegian Caledonides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Templeton, J.; Anders, M.; Fossen, H.

2014-12-01

The Hornelen basin is the largest of the Devonian 'Old Red' sandstone basins in Norway, comprising 25 km of alluvial-fluvial deposits which are organized into basin-wide, coarsening-upward megacycles. Hornelen sits with several smaller basins in the hanging wall a major extensional shear zone along which the ultra-high pressure metamorphic core of subducted Baltican crust was rapidly exhumed during the extensional collapse of the Caledonian orogeny. The timing of orogenic collapse corresponds closely to the timing of the basins, which are loosely constrained by sparse trace-fossil assemblages to a mid-Devonian age. Further, the basins are now in brittle fault contact with the underlying mylonitic shear zone and the metamorphic core, implying that they are the upper-crustal expression of large-scale extension and deep-crustal exhumation. Two distinct structural models have been proposed for Hornelen to account for these observations. The strike-slip model juxtaposes different source terranes across the basin-controlling fault and predicts spatially changing provenance within chronostratigraphic units. The supradetachment model links the filling of the basin directly to unroofing of the metamorphic core on a low-angle detachment fault, and predicts basin-wide changes in provenance through time with progressive exhumation of the metamorphic hinterland. We present an extensive new provenance dataset, spanning the Hornelen basin strata through space and time. Detrital zircon U/Pb ages from 18 new samples comprise three distinct populations (1.6, 1.0, and 0.43 Ga) with the Caledonian-aged zircons (ca 0.43 Ga) present mainly along the northern margin of the basin, representing an Upper Allochthon source not found on the southern or eastern margins of the basin. Juxtaposition of different source terranes across the basin supports the strike-slip model. 40Ar/39Ar detrital white mica from the same sample set documents a younging of the dominant age peak from 432 Ma in the oldest sediments to 401 Ma in the youngest units, but does not document any difference between northern and southern mica sources. This trend supports the supradetachment model, but may also be explained by passive, isostatically-driven erosional unroofing of the overthickened orogenic crust.

Effects of agricultural conservation practices on N loads in the Mississippi-Atchafalya River Basin

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A modeling framework consisting of a farm-scale model, Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender (APEX); a watershedscale model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT); and databases was used in the Conservation Effects Assessment Project to quantify the environmental benefits of conservation practi...

Latitudinal and Longitudinal Basin-scale Surface Salinity Contrasts and Freshwater Transport by Ocean Thermohaline Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidov, D.; Haupt, B. J.

2003-12-01

The role of sea surface salinity (SSS) contrasts in maintaining vigorous global ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) is revisited. Relative importance of different generalizations of sea surface conditions in climate studies is explored. In numerical experiments using an ocean general circulation model, we have aggregated the observed sea surface temperature (SST) and SSS in several different ways: we used observed unchanged SST with SSS taken as constant (34.25 psu) everywhere; SST unchanged, and SSS zonally averaged globally, i.e., in the whole World Ocean; SST averaged globally, and SSS unchanged; SST zonally averaged globally and SSS zonally averaged basin-wide in individual basins, i.e., in the Atlantic, Indian, Pacific, and Southern Oceans separately; and, finally, both SST and SSS zonally averaged in individual basins. Global zonal averaging removes all longitudinal differences in sea surface climatology among ocean basins. However, latitudinal profiles of zonally averaged parameters preserve the main character of large-scale equator-to-pole sea surface variability. Basin-wide zonal averaging does an even better job of preserving latitudinal distributions within each basin. The results of the experiments could hardly be anticipated a priory. Surprisingly, SST could be used as a 2-D field, or as a zonally-averaged field without much difference in the THC dynamics. Moreover, SST could be averaged either globally, or basin-wide, and it also did not change the overall character of THC. At the same time, THC responded vigorously to how the SSS has been changed. It appeared that the THC structure with the globally averaged SST and basin-wide averaged SSS was very close to the one obtained in the control run (control run operates with 2-D observed SST and SSS). Our main conclusion is that ocean-wide inter-basin sea surface salinity contrasts serve as the major controlling element in global thermohaline circulation. Thermal inter-basin contrasts, as well as longitudinal variation in SSS, are less important than latitudinal thermal gradients and inter-basin salinity contrasts. Details of SSS also decrease in importance as soon as its inter-basin contrasts are retained. This is especially important for paleoclimate and future climate simulations, as only the large-scale inter-basin contrasts of the sea surface conditions really matter.

Active intra-basin faulting in the Northern Basin of Lake Malawi from seismic reflection data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shillington, D. J.; Chindandali, P. R. N.; Scholz, C. A.; Ebinger, C. J.; Onyango, E. A.; Peterson, K.; Gaherty, J. B.; Nyblade, A.; Accardo, N. J.; McCartney, T.; Oliva, S. J.; Kamihanda, G.; Ferdinand, R.; Salima, J.; Mruma, A. H.

2016-12-01

Many questions remain about the development and evolution of fault systems in weakly extended rifts, including the relative roles of border faults and intra-basin faults, and segmentation at various scales. The northern Lake Malawi (Nyasa) rift in the East African Rift System is an early stage rift exhibiting pronounced tectonic segmentation, which is defined by 100-km-long border faults. The basins also contain a series of intrabasinal faults and associated synrift sediments. The occurrence of the 2009 Karonga Earthquake Sequence on one of these intrabasinal faults indicates that some of them are active. Here we present new multichannel seismic reflection data from the Northern Basin of the Malawi Rift collected in 2015 as a part of the SEGMeNT (Study of Extension and maGmatism in Malawi aNd Tanzania) project. This rift basin is bound on its east side by the west-dipping Livingstone border fault. Over 650 km of seismic reflection profiles were acquired in the Northern Basin using a 500 to 1540 cu in air gun array and a 1200- to 1500-m seismic streamer. Dip lines image a series of north-south oriented west-dipping intra-basin faults and basement reflections up to 5 s twtt near the border fault. Cumulative offsets on intra-basin faults decrease to the west. The largest intra-basin fault has a vertical displacement of >2 s two-way travel time, indicating that it has accommodated significant total extension. Some of these intra-basin faults offset the lake bottom and the youngest sediments by up to 50 s twtt ( 37 m), demonstrating they are still active. The two largest intra-basin faults exhibit the largest offsets of young sediments and also correspond to the area of highest seismicity based on analysis of seismic data from the 89-station SEGMeNT onshore/offshore network (see Peterson et al, this session). Fault patterns in MCS profiles vary along the basin, suggesting a smaller scale of segmentation of faults within the basin; these variations in fault patterns appear to correlate with variations in the distribution of aftershocks from the 2009 and 2014 Karonga earthquakes and in background seismicity beneath the lake, providing new constraints on length-displacement scaling for predictive models and earthquake hazards.

Assessing changes in extreme river flow regulation from non-stationarity in hydrological scaling laws

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez, Estiven; Salazar, Juan Fernando; Villegas, Juan Camilo; Mercado-Bettín, Daniel

2018-07-01

Extreme flows are key components of river flow regimes that affect manifold hydrological, geomorphological and ecological processes with societal relevance. One fundamental characteristic of extreme flows in river basins is that they exhibit scaling properties which can be identified through scaling (power) laws. Understanding the physical mechanisms behind such scaling laws is a continuing challenge in hydrology, with potential implications for the prediction of river flow regimes in a changing environment and ungauged basins. After highlighting that the scaling properties are sensitive to environmental change, we develop a physical interpretation of how temporal changes in scaling exponents relate to the capacity of river basins to regulate extreme river flows. Regulation is defined here as the basins' capacity to either dampen high flows or to enhance low flows. Further, we use this framework to infer temporal changes in the regulation capacity of five large basins in tropical South America. Our results indicate that, during the last few decades, the Amazon river basin has been reducing its capacity to enhance low flows, likely as a consequence of pronounced environmental change in its south and south-eastern sub-basins. The proposed framework is widely applicable to different basins, and provides foundations for using scaling laws as empirical tools for inferring temporal changes of hydrological regulation, particularly relevant for identifying and managing hydrological consequences of environmental change.

BASIN-SCALE ASSESSMENTS FOR SUSTAINABLE ECOSYSTEMS (BASE)

EPA Science Inventory

The need for multi-media, multi-stressor, and multi-response models for ecological assessment is widely acknowledged. Assessments at this level of complexity have not been conducted, and therefore pilot assessments are required to identify the critical concepts, models, data, and...

Changes in the relation between snow station observations and basin scale snow water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sexstone, G. A.; Penn, C. A.; Clow, D. W.; Moeser, D.; Liston, G. E.

2017-12-01

Snow monitoring stations that measure snow water equivalent or snow depth provide fundamental observations used for predicting water availability and flood risk in mountainous regions. In the western United States, snow station observations provided by the Natural Resources Conservation Service Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) network are relied upon for forecasting spring and summer streamflow volume. Streamflow forecast accuracy has declined for many regions over the last several decades. Changes in snow accumulation and melt related to climate, land use, and forest cover are not accounted for in current forecasts, and are likely sources of error. Therefore, understanding and updating relations between snow station observations and basin scale snow water resources is crucial to improve accuracy of streamflow prediction. In this study, we investigated the representativeness of snow station observations when compared to simulated basin-wide snow water resources within the Rio Grande headwaters of Colorado. We used the combination of a process-based snow model (SnowModel), field-based measurements, and remote sensing observations to compare the spatiotemporal variability of simulated basin-wide snow accumulation and melt with that of SNOTEL station observations. Results indicated that observations are comparable to simulated basin-average winter precipitation but overestimate both the simulated basin-average snow water equivalent and snowmelt rate. Changes in the representation of snow station observations over time in the Rio Grande headwaters were also investigated and compared to observed streamflow and streamflow forecasting errors. Results from this study provide important insight in the context of non-stationarity for future water availability assessments and streamflow predictions.

Investigating links between climate and orography in the central Andes: Coupling erosion and precipitation using a physical-statistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowman, Lauren E. L.; Barros, Ana P.

2014-06-01

Prior studies evaluated the interplay between climate and orography by investigating the sensitivity of relief to precipitation using the stream power erosion law (SPEL) for specified erosion rates. Here we address the inverse problem, inferring realistic spatial distributions of erosion rates for present-day topography and contemporaneous climate forcing. In the central Andes, similarities in the altitudinal distribution and density of first-order stream outlets and precipitation suggest a direct link between climate and fluvial erosion. Erosion rates are estimated with a Bayesian physical-statistical model based on the SPEL applied at spatial scales that capture joint hydrogeomorphic and hydrometeorological patterns within five river basins and one intermontane basin in Peru and Bolivia. Topographic slope and area data were generated from a high-resolution (˜90 m) digital elevation map, and mean annual precipitation was derived from 14 years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42v.7 product and adjusted with rain gauge data. Estimated decadal-scale erosion rates vary between 0.68 and 11.59 mm/yr, with basin averages of 2.1-8.5 mm/yr. Even accounting for uncertainty in precipitation and simplifying assumptions, these values are 1-2 orders of magnitude larger than most millennial and million year timescale estimates in the central Andes, using various geological dating techniques (e.g., thermochronology and cosmogenic nuclides), but they are consistent with other decadal-scale estimates using landslide mapping and sediment flux observations. The results also reveal a pattern of spatially dependent erosion consistent with basin hypsometry. The modeling framework provides a means of remotely estimating erosion rates and associated uncertainties under current climate conditions over large regions. 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Modeling the hydrologic effects of land and water development interventions: a case study of the upper Blue Nile river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haregeweyn, Nigussie; Tsunekawa, Atsushi; Tsubo, Mitsuru; Meshesha, Derege; Adgo, Enyew; Poesen, Jean; Schütt, Brigitta

2014-05-01

Over 67% of the Ethiopian landmass has been identified as very vulnerable to climate variability and land degradation. These problems are more prevalent in the Upper Blue Nile (UBN, often called Abay) river basin covering a drainage area of about 199,800 km2. The UBN River runs from Lake Tana (NW Ethiopia) to the Ethiopia-Sudan border. To enhance the adaptive capacity to the high climate variability and land degradation in the basin, different land and water management measures (stone/soil bunds, runoff collector trenches, exclosures) have been extensively implemented, especially since recent years. Moreover, multipurpose water harvesting schemes including the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD, reservoir area of ca. 4000 km2) and 17 other similar projects are being or to be implemented by 2025. However, impact studies on land and water management aspects rarely include detailed hydrological components especially at river basin scale, although it is generally regarded as a major determinant of hydrological processes. The main aim of this study is therefore to model the significance of land and water management interventions in surface runoff response at scale of UBN river basin and to suggest some recommendations. Spatially-distributed annual surface runoff was simulated for both present-day and future (2025) land and water management conditions using calibrated values of the proportional loss model in ArcGIS environment. Average annual rainfall map (1998-2012) was produced from calibrated TRMM satellite source and shows high spatial variability of rainfall ranging between ca. 1000 mm in the Eastern part of the basin to ca. 2000 mm in the southern part of the basin. Present-day land use day condition was obtained from Abay Basin Master Plan study. The future land use map was created taking into account the land and water development interventions to be implemented by 2025. Under present-day conditions, high spatial variability of annual runoff depth was observed in the basin ranging from 80 mm in the central part of the basin to over 1700 mm in water bodies. This variation is mainly controlled by variation in surface conditions and areal-extent of each land use type, and rainfall depth. For a specific land use type, runoff depth is found to increase with elevation as this in turn directly influences the rainfall distribution. By 2025, due to the land and water management interventions, total runoff depth in the basin could decrease by up to 40%. Following the conversion of other land use types to water bodies due to the medium to large-scale water harvesting schemes such as GERD reservoir, runoff response in those specific parts of the basin could increase by over 200%. Sub-basins have been prioritized for future land and water management interventions. Further study remains necessary to understand the downstream impacts of those interventions on runoff and sediment discharges. Keywords: Land and water management; Upper Blue Nile; Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam; Spatial variability of runoff; Downstream impact.

Calibration of Noah soil hydraulic property parameters using surface soil moisture from SMOS and basin-wide in situ observations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil hydraulic properties can be retrieved from physical sampling of soil, via surveys, but this is time consuming and only as accurate as the scale of the sample. Remote sensing provides an opportunity to get pertinent soil properties at large scales, which is very useful for large scale modeling....

Probabilistic assessment of the impact of coal seam gas development on groundwater: Surat Basin, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Tao; Moore, Catherine; Raiber, Matthias

2018-05-01

Modelling cumulative impacts of basin-scale coal seam gas (CSG) extraction is challenging due to the long time frames and spatial extent over which impacts occur combined with the need to consider local-scale processes. The computational burden of such models limits the ability to undertake calibration and sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. A framework is presented that integrates recently developed methods and tools to address the computational burdens of an assessment of drawdown impacts associated with rapid CSG development in the Surat Basin, Australia. The null space Monte Carlo method combined with singular value decomposition (SVD)-assisted regularisation was used to analyse the uncertainty of simulated drawdown impacts. The study also describes how the computational burden of assessing local-scale impacts was mitigated by adopting a novel combination of a nested modelling framework which incorporated a model emulator of drawdown in dual-phase flow conditions, and a methodology for representing local faulting. This combination provides a mechanism to support more reliable estimates of regional CSG-related drawdown predictions. The study indicates that uncertainties associated with boundary conditions are reduced significantly when expressing differences between scenarios. The results are analysed and distilled to enable the easy identification of areas where the simulated maximum drawdown impacts could exceed trigger points associated with legislative `make good' requirements; trigger points require that either an adjustment in the development scheme or other measures are implemented to remediate the impact. This report contributes to the currently small body of work that describes modelling and uncertainty analyses of CSG extraction impacts on groundwater.

Integrated groundwater resource management in Indus Basin using satellite gravimetry and physical modeling tools.

PubMed

Iqbal, Naveed; Hossain, Faisal; Lee, Hyongki; Akhter, Gulraiz

2017-03-01

Reliable and frequent information on groundwater behavior and dynamics is very important for effective groundwater resource management at appropriate spatial scales. This information is rarely available in developing countries and thus poses a challenge for groundwater managers. The in situ data and groundwater modeling tools are limited in their ability to cover large domains. Remote sensing technology can now be used to continuously collect information on hydrological cycle in a cost-effective way. This study evaluates the effectiveness of a remote sensing integrated physical modeling approach for groundwater management in Indus Basin. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Satellite (GRACE)-based gravity anomalies from 2003 to 2010 were processed to generate monthly groundwater storage changes using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The groundwater storage is the key parameter of interest for groundwater resource management. The spatial and temporal patterns in groundwater storage (GWS) are useful for devising the appropriate groundwater management strategies. GRACE-estimated GWS information with large-scale coverage is valuable for basin-scale monitoring and decision making. This frequently available information is found useful for the identification of groundwater recharge areas, groundwater storage depletion, and pinpointing of the areas where groundwater sustainability is at risk. The GWS anomalies were found to favorably agree with groundwater model simulations from Visual MODFLOW and in situ data. Mostly, a moderate to severe GWS depletion is observed causing a vulnerable situation to the sustainability of this groundwater resource. For the sustainable groundwater management, the region needs to implement groundwater policies and adopt water conservation techniques.

Watershed boundaries and digital elevation model of Oklahoma derived from 1:100,000-scale digital topographic maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cederstrand, J.R.; Rea, A.H.

1995-01-01

This document provides a general description of the procedures used to develop the data sets included on this compact disc. This compact disc contains watershed boundaries for Oklahoma, a digital elevation model, and other data sets derived from the digital elevation model. The digital elevation model was produced using the ANUDEM software package, written by Michael Hutchinson and licensed from the Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies at The Australian National University. Elevation data (hypsography) and streams (hydrography) from digital versions of the U.S. Geological Survey 1:100,000-scale topographic maps were used by the ANUDEM package to produce a hydrologically conditioned digital elevation model with a 60-meter cell size. This digital elevation model is well suited for drainage-basin delineation using automated techniques. Additional data sets include flow-direction, flow-accumulation, and shaded-relief grids, all derived from the digital elevation model, and the hydrography data set used in producing the digital elevation model. The watershed boundaries derived from the digital elevation model have been edited to be consistent with contours and streams from the U.S. Geological Survey 1:100,000-scale topographic maps. The watershed data set includes boundaries for 11-digit Hydrologic Unit Codes (watersheds) within Oklahoma, and 8-digit Hydrologic Unit Codes (cataloging units) outside Oklahoma. Cataloging-unit boundaries based on 1:250,000-scale maps outside Oklahoma for the Arkansas, Red, and White River basins are included. The other data sets cover Oklahoma, and where available, portions of 1:100,000-scale quadrangles adjoining Oklahoma.

Western Lake Erie Basin: Soft-data-constrained, NHDPlus resolution watershed modeling and exploration of applicable conservation scenarios.

PubMed

Yen, Haw; White, Michael J; Arnold, Jeffrey G; Keitzer, S Conor; Johnson, Mari-Vaughn V; Atwood, Jay D; Daggupati, Prasad; Herbert, Matthew E; Sowa, Scott P; Ludsin, Stuart A; Robertson, Dale M; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Rewa, Charles A

2016-11-01

Complex watershed simulation models are powerful tools that can help scientists and policy-makers address challenging topics, such as land use management and water security. In the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB), complex hydrological models have been applied at various scales to help describe relationships between land use and water, nutrient, and sediment dynamics. This manuscript evaluated the capacity of the current Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict hydrological and water quality processes within WLEB at the finest resolution watershed boundary unit (NHDPlus) along with the current conditions and conservation scenarios. The process based SWAT model was capable of the fine-scale computation and complex routing used in this project, as indicated by measured data at five gaging stations. The level of detail required for fine-scale spatial simulation made the use of both hard and soft data necessary in model calibration, alongside other model adaptations. Limitations to the model's predictive capacity were due to a paucity of data in the region at the NHDPlus scale rather than due to SWAT functionality. Results of treatment scenarios demonstrate variable effects of structural practices and nutrient management on sediment and nutrient loss dynamics. Targeting treatment to acres with critical outstanding conservation needs provides the largest return on investment in terms of nutrient loss reduction per dollar spent, relative to treating acres with lower inherent nutrient loss vulnerabilities. Importantly, this research raises considerations about use of models to guide land management decisions at very fine spatial scales. Decision makers using these results should be aware of data limitations that hinder fine-scale model interpretation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Western Lake Erie Basin: Soft-data-constrained, NHDPlus resolution watershed modeling and exploration of applicable conservation scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yen, Haw; White, Michael J.; Arnold, Jeffrey G.; Keitzer, S. Conor; Johnson, Mari-Vaughn V; Atwood, Jay D.; Daggupati, Prasad; Herbert, Matthew E.; Sowa, Scott P.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Robertson, Dale M.; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Rewa, Charles A.

2016-01-01

Complex watershed simulation models are powerful tools that can help scientists and policy-makers address challenging topics, such as land use management and water security. In the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB), complex hydrological models have been applied at various scales to help describe relationships between land use and water, nutrient, and sediment dynamics. This manuscript evaluated the capacity of the current Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT2012) to predict hydrological and water quality processes within WLEB at the finest resolution watershed boundary unit (NHDPlus) along with the current conditions and conservation scenarios. The process based SWAT model was capable of the fine-scale computation and complex routing used in this project, as indicated by measured data at five gaging stations. The level of detail required for fine-scale spatial simulation made the use of both hard and soft data necessary in model calibration, alongside other model adaptations. Limitations to the model's predictive capacity were due to a paucity of data in the region at the NHDPlus scale rather than due to SWAT functionality. Results of treatment scenarios demonstrate variable effects of structural practices and nutrient management on sediment and nutrient loss dynamics. Targeting treatment to acres with critical outstanding conservation needs provides the largest return on investment in terms of nutrient loss reduction per dollar spent, relative to treating acres with lower inherent nutrient loss vulnerabilities. Importantly, this research raises considerations about use of models to guide land management decisions at very fine spatial scales. Decision makers using these results should be aware of data limitations that hinder fine-scale model interpretation.

Antarctic surface temperature and sea ice biases in coupled climate models linked with cloud and land surface properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skiles, M.; Painter, T. H.; Marks, D. G.; Hedrick, A. R.

2014-12-01

Since 2013 the Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) has been measuring spatial and temporal distribution of both snow water equivalent and snow albedo, the two most critical properties for understanding snowmelt runoff and timing, across key basins in the Western US. It is generally understood that net solar radiation (as controlled by variations in snow albedo and irradiance) provides the energy available for melt in almost all snow-covered environments. Until now, sparse measurements have restricted the ability to utilize measured net solar radiation in energy balance models, and current process simulations and model prediction of albedo evolution rely on oversimplifications of the processes. Data from ASO offers the unprecedented opportunity to utilize weekly measurements of spatially extensive spectral snow albedo to constrain and update snow albedo in a distributed snowmelt model for the first time. Here, we first investigate the sensitivity of the snow energy balance model SNOBAL to prescribed changes in snow albedo at two instrumented alpine catchments: at the point scale across 10 years at Senator Beck Basin Study Area in the San Juan Mountains, southwestern Colorado, and at the distributed scale across 25 years at Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed, Idaho. We then compare distributed energy balance and snowmelt results across the ASO measurement record in the Tuolumne Basin in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California, for model runs with and without integrated snow albedo from ASO.

Delft-FEWS:A Decision Making Platform to Intergrate Data, Model, Algorithm for Large-Scale River Basin Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, T.; Welles, E.

2017-12-01

In this paper, we introduce a flood forecasting and decision making platform, named Delft-FEWS, which has been developed over years at the Delft Hydraulics and now at Deltares. The philosophy of Delft-FEWS is to provide water managers and operators with an open shell tool, which allows the integratation of a variety of hydrological, hydraulics, river routing, and reservoir models with hydrometerological forecasts data. Delft-FEWS serves as an powerful tool for both basin-scale and national-scale water resources management. The essential novelty of Delft-FEWS is to change the flood forecasting and water resources management from a single model or agency centric paradigm to a intergrated framework, in which different model, data, algorithm and stakeholders are strongly linked together. The paper will start with the challenges in water resources managment, and the concept and philosophy of Delft-FEWS. Then, the details of data handling and linkages of Delft-FEWS with different hydrological, hydraulic, and reservoir models, etc. Last, several cases studies and applications of Delft-FEWS will be demonstrated, including the National Weather Service and the Bonneville Power Administration in USA, and a national application in the water board in the Netherland.

Observing and Simulating Diapycnal Mixing in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, K.; Klymak, J. M.; Hu, X.; Myers, P. G.; Williams, W. J.; Melling, H.

2016-12-01

High-spatial-resolution observations in the central Canadian Arctic Archipelago are analysed in conjunction with process-oriented modelling to estimate the flow pathways among the constricted waterways, understand the nature of the hydraulic control(s), and assess the influence of smaller scale (metres to kilometres) phenomena such as internal waves and topographically induced eddies. The observations repeatedly display isopycnal displacements of 50 m as dense water plunges over a sill. Depth-averaged turbulent dissipation rates near the sill estimated from these observations are typically 10-6-10-5 W kg-1, a range that is three orders of magnitude larger than that for the open ocean. These and other estimates are compared against a 1/12° basin-scale model from which we estimate diapycnal mixing rates using a volume-integrated advection-diffusion equation. Much of the mixing in this simulation is concentrated near constrictions within Barrow Strait and Queens Channel, the latter being our observational site. This suggests the model is capable of capturing topographically induced mixing. However, such mixing is expected to be enhanced in the presence of tides, a process not included in our basin scale simulation or other similar models. Quantifying this enhancement is another objective of our process-oriented modelling.

Statistical downscaling of precipitation using long short-term memory recurrent neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, Saptarshi; Sarkar, Sudeshna; Mitra, Pabitra

2017-11-01

Hydrological impacts of global climate change on regional scale are generally assessed by downscaling large-scale climatic variables, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), to regional, small-scale hydrometeorological variables like precipitation, temperature, etc. In this study, we propose a new statistical downscaling model based on Recurrent Neural Network with Long Short-Term Memory which captures the spatio-temporal dependencies in local rainfall. The previous studies have used several other methods such as linear regression, quantile regression, kernel regression, beta regression, and artificial neural networks. Deep neural networks and recurrent neural networks have been shown to be highly promising in modeling complex and highly non-linear relationships between input and output variables in different domains and hence we investigated their performance in the task of statistical downscaling. We have tested this model on two datasets—one on precipitation in Mahanadi basin in India and the second on precipitation in Campbell River basin in Canada. Our autoencoder coupled long short-term memory recurrent neural network model performs the best compared to other existing methods on both the datasets with respect to temporal cross-correlation, mean squared error, and capturing the extremes.

Snow, topography, and the diurnal cycle in streamflow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lundquist, J.D.; Knowles, N.; Dettinger, M.; Cayan, D.

2002-01-01

Because snowmelt processes are spatially complex, point measurements, particularly in mountainous regions, are often inadequate to resolve basin-scale characteristics. Satellite measurements provide good spatial sampling but are often infrequent in time, particularly during cloudy weather. Fortunately, hourly measurements of river discharge provide another widely available, but as yet underutilized, source of information, providing direct information on basin output at a fine temporal scale. The hour of maximum discharge recorded each day reflects the travel time between peak melt and the time most water reaches the gauge. Traditional theories, based on numerical models of melt-water percolation through a snowpack and localized, small-basin observations, report that the hour of daily maximum flow becomes earlier as the snowpack thins and matures, reflecting shorter travel times for surface melt to reach the base of the snowpack. However, an examination of hourly discharge from 100 basins in the Western United States, ranging in size from 1.3 km2 to 10,813 km2, reveals a more complex situation. The sequences of seasonal evolution of the hour of maximum discharge are unique to each basin, but within a given basin are remarkably consistent between years, regardless of the size of the snowpack. This seems to imply that basin topography strongly influences the timing of peak flow. In most of the basins examined, at the end of the melt season, the hour of maximum discharge shifts to later in the day, reflecting increased travel times as the snowline retreats to higher elevations.

Local and Long-Distance Effects of Land Use Change on Nutrient Levels in Streams and Rivers of the Conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, R. A.; Alexander, R. B.; Schwarz, G. E.

2003-12-01

Determining the effects of land use change (e.g. urbanization, deforestation) on water quality at large spatial scales has been difficult because water quality measurements in large rivers with heterogeneous basins show the integrated effects of multiple factors. Moreover, the observed effects of land use changes on water quality in small homogeneous stream basins may not be indicative of downstream effects (including effects on such ecologically relevant characteristics as nutrient levels and elemental ratios) because of loss processes occurring during downstream transport in river channels. In this study we used the USGS SPARROW (Spatially-Referenced Regression on Watersheds) models of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) in streams and rivers of the conterminous US to examine the effects of various aspects of land use change on nutrient concentrations and flux from the pre-development era to the present. The models were calibrated with data from 370 long-term monitoring stations representing a wide range of basin sizes, land use/cover classes, climates, and physiographies. The non-linear formulation for each model includes 20+ statistically estimated parameters relating to land use/cover characteristics and other environmental variables such as temperature, soil conditions, hill slope, and the hydraulic characteristics of 2200 large lakes and reservoirs. Model predictions are available for 62,000 river/stream channel nodes. Model predictions of pre-development water quality compare favorably with nutrient data from 63 undeveloped (reference) sites. Error statistics are available for predictions at all nodes. Model simulations were chosen to compare the effects of selected aspects of land use change on nutrient levels at large and small basin scales, lacustrine and coastal receiving waters, and among the major US geographic regions.

Modeling multidecadal surface water inundation dynamics and key drivers on large river basin scale using multiple time series of Earth-observation and river flow data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heimhuber, V.; Tulbure, M. G.; Broich, M.

2017-02-01

Periodically inundated floodplain areas are hot spots of biodiversity and provide a broad range of ecosystem services but have suffered alarming declines in recent history. Despite their importance, their long-term surface water (SW) dynamics and hydroclimatic drivers remain poorly quantified on continental scales. In this study, we used a 26 year time series of Landsat-derived SW maps in combination with river flow data from 68 gauges and spatial time series of rainfall, evapotranspiration and soil moisture to statistically model SW dynamics as a function of key drivers across Australia's Murray-Darling Basin (˜1 million km2). We fitted generalized additive models for 18,521 individual modeling units made up of 10 × 10 km grid cells, each split into floodplain, floodplain-lake, and nonfloodplain area. Average goodness of fit of models was high across floodplains and floodplain-lakes (r2 > 0.65), which were primarily driven by river flow, and was lower for nonfloodplain areas (r2 > 0.24), which were primarily driven by rainfall. Local climate conditions were more relevant for SW dynamics in the northern compared to the southern basin and had the highest influence in the least regulated and most extended floodplains. We further applied the models of two contrasting floodplain areas to predict SW extents of cloud-affected time steps in the Landsat series during the large 2010 floods with high validated accuracy (r2 > 0.97). Our framework is applicable to other complex river basins across the world and enables a more detailed quantification of large floods and drivers of SW dynamics compared to existing methods.

Integrated Analysis on Gravity and Magnetic Fields of the Hailar Basin, NE China: Implications for Basement Structure and Deep Tectonics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Bin; Wang, Liangshu; Dong, Ping; Wu, YongJing; Li, Changbo; Hu, Bo; Wang, Chong

2012-11-01

The Hailar Basin is one of the typical basins among the NE China Basin Groups, which is situated in the east of East Asia Orogene between the Siberia Plate and the North China Plate. Based on the detailed analysis of magnetic, gravity, petrophysical, geothermal and seismological data, we separate the Gravity and Magnetic Anomalies (GMA) into four orders using Wavelet Multi-scale Decomposition (WMD). The apparent depths of causative sources were then assessed by Power Spectrum Analysis (PSA) of each order. Low-order wavelet detail anomalies were used to study the basin's basement structure such as major faults, the basement lithology, uplifts and depressions. High-order ones were used for the inversion of Moho and Curie discontinuities using the Parker method. The results show that the Moho uplifting area of the Hailar Basin is located at the NE part of the basin, the Curie uplifting area is at the NW part, and neither of them is consistent with the basin's sedimentary center. This indicates that the Hailar Basin may differ in basin building pattern from other middle and eastern basins of the basin groups, and the Hailar Basin might be of a passive type. When the Pacific Plate was subducting to NE China, the frontier of the plate lying on the mantle transition zone didn't pass through the Great Khingan Mountains region, so there is not an obvious magma upwelling or lithospheric extension in the Hailar Basin area. Finally, based on the seismological data and results of WMD, a probable 2D crust model is derived from an across-basin profile using the 2D forward modeling of the Bouguer gravity anomaly. The results agree with those from seismic inversion, suggesting WMD is suitable for identifying major crustal density interfaces.

Assimilation of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Data into a Land Surface Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reichle, Rolf H.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Rodell, Matt

2008-01-01

The NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) system of satellites provides observations of large-scale, monthly terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes. In. this presentation we describe a land data assimilation system that ingests GRACE observations and show that the assimilation improves estimates of water storage and fluxes, as evaluated against independent measurements. The ensemble-based land data assimilation system uses a Kalman smoother approach along with the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM). We assimilated GRACE-derived TWS anomalies for each of the four major sub-basins of the Mississippi into the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM). Compared with the open-loop (no assimilation) CLSM simulation, assimilation estimates of groundwater variability exhibited enhanced skill with respect to measured groundwater. Assimilation also significantly increased the correlation between simulated TWS and gauged river flow for all four sub-basins and for the Mississippi River basin itself. In addition, model performance was evaluated for watersheds smaller than the scale of GRACE observations, in the majority of cases, GRACE assimilation led to increased correlation between TWS estimates and gauged river flow, indicating that data assimilation has considerable potential to downscale GRACE data for hydrological applications. We will also describe how the output from the GRACE land data assimilation system is now being prepared for use in the North American Drought Monitor.

Spatial variability and landscape controls of near-surface permafrost within the Alaskan Yukon River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pastick, Neal J.; Jorgenson, M. Torre; Wylie, Bruce K.; Rose, Joshua R.; Rigge, Matthew; Walvoord, Michelle Ann

2014-01-01

The distribution of permafrost is important to understand because of permafrost's influence on high-latitude ecosystem structure and functions. Moreover, near-surface (defined here as within 1 m of the Earth's surface) permafrost is particularly susceptible to a warming climate and is generally poorly mapped at regional scales. Subsequently, our objectives were to (1) develop the first-known binary and probabilistic maps of near-surface permafrost distributions at a 30 m resolution in the Alaskan Yukon River Basin by employing decision tree models, field measurements, and remotely sensed and mapped biophysical data; (2) evaluate the relative contribution of 39 biophysical variables used in the models; and (3) assess the landscape-scale factors controlling spatial variations in permafrost extent. Areas estimated to be present and absent of near-surface permafrost occupy approximately 46% and 45% of the Alaskan Yukon River Basin, respectively; masked areas (e.g., water and developed) account for the remaining 9% of the landscape. Strong predictors of near-surface permafrost include climatic indices, land cover, topography, and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus spectral information. Our quantitative modeling approach enabled us to generate regional near-surface permafrost maps and provide essential information for resource managers and modelers to better understand near-surface permafrost distribution and how it relates to environmental factors and conditions.

The institutionalization of River Basin Management as politics of scale - Insights from Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houdret, Annabelle; Dombrowsky, Ines; Horlemann, Lena

2014-11-01

River Basin Management (RBM) as an approach to sustainable water use has become the dominant model of water governance. Its introduction, however, entails a fundamental realignment and rescaling of water-sector institutions along hydrological boundaries. Creating such a new governance scale is inherently political, and is being described as politics of scale. This paper analyzes how the politics of scale play out in the institutionalization of RBM in Mongolia. It furthermore scrutinizes the role of the broader political decentralization process in the introduction of RBM, an issue that has so far received little attention. Finally, it assesses whether the river basin is an adequate water management scale in Mongolia. This article finds that institutionalizing RBM in Mongolia is indeed a highly political negotiation process that does not only concern the choice of the governance scale, but also its detailed institutional design. It furthermore reveals that Mongolia's incomplete political decentralization process has for a long time negatively impacted the decentralization of water-related tasks and the implementation of RBM. However, the 2011 Budget Law and the 2012 Water Law provide for a fiscal strengthening of local governments and clearer sharing of responsibilities among the various different institutions involved in water management. Nevertheless, only if the 2012 Water Law is complemented by adequate by-laws - and if the newly created river basin institutions are adequately equipped - can RBM be effectively put into practice. This article confirms the usefulness of a politics-of-scale approach to understand scalar practices and changes in water management. However, the article also argues for a broadening of the analytical perspective to take the interdependencies between changes in water governance and other political processes, such as decentralization, into account.

Towards an equitable allocation of the cost of a global change adaptation plan at the river basin scale: going beyond the perfect cooperation assumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girard, Corentin; Rinaudo, Jean-Daniel; Pulido-Velázquez, Manuel

2015-04-01

Adaptation to global change is a key issue in the planning of water resource systems in a changing world. Adaptation has to be efficient, but also equitable in the share of the costs of joint adaptation at the river basin scale. Least-cost hydro-economic optimization models have been helpful at defining efficient adaptation strategies. However, they often rely on the assumption of a "perfect cooperation" among the stakeholders, required for reaching the optimal solution. Nowadays, most adaptation decisions have to be agreed among the different actors in charge of their implementation, thus challenging the validity of a perfect command-and-control solution. As a first attempt to over-pass this limitation, our work presents a method to allocate the cost of an efficient adaptation programme of measures among the different stakeholders at the river basin scale. Principles of equity are used to define cost allocation scenarios from different perspectives, combining elements from cooperative game theory and axioms from social justice to bring some "food for thought" in the decision making process of adaptation. To illustrate the type of interactions between stakeholders in a river basin, the method has been applied in a French case study, the Orb river basin. Located on the northern rim of the Mediterranean Sea, this river basin is experiencing changes in demand patterns, and its water resources will be impacted by climate change, calling for the design of an adaptation plan. A least-cost river basin optimization model (LCRBOM) has been developed under GAMS to select the combination of demand- and supply-side adaptation measures that allows meeting quantitative water management targets at the river basin scale in a global change context. The optimal adaptation plan encompasses measures in both agricultural and urban sectors, up-stream and down-stream of the basin, disregarding the individual interests of the stakeholders. In order to ensure equity in the cost allocation of the adaptation plan, different allocation scenarios are considered. The LCRBOM allows defining a solution space based on economic rationality concepts from cooperative game theory (the core of the game), and then, to define equitable allocation of the cost of the programme of measures (the Shapley value and the nucleolus). Moreover, alternative allocation scenarios have been considered based on axiomatic principles of social justice, such as "utilitarian", "prior rights" or "strict equality", applied in the case study area. The comparison of the cost allocation scenarios brings insight to inform the decision making process at the river basin scale and potentially reap the efficiency gains from cooperation in the design of adaptation plan. The study has been partially supported by the IMPADAPT project /CGL2013-48424-C2-1-R) from the Spanish ministry MINECO (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad) and European FEDER funds. Corentin Girard is supported by a grant from the University Lecturer Training Program (FPU12/03803) of the Ministry of Education, Culture and Sports of Spain.

Evolution of ice sheets in the early Quaternary of the central North Sea: 2.58 Ma to 0.78 Ma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, R.; Huuse, M.; Stewart, M.; Brocklehurst, S. H.

2016-12-01

Integration of chronostratigraphic proxies with 3D seismic and well-log data has allowed for a basin-wide re-interpretation of the onset of glaciation in the central North Sea during the Quaternary. Mapping of seismic geomorphology, calculations of water depth and sediment accumulation rates, and other basin analysis techniques unravel the evolution of the North Sea basin during the early Pleistocene, a period of dramatic global cooling and rapid 41 kyr glacial-interglacial cycles, identifying a system which is increasingly dominated by large, continental-scale ice sheets. Prior to this study continental-scale ice sheets were generally not considered able to grow in a 41 kyr cycle and the earliest date for such an ice sheet in the North Sea was identified at the onset of tunnel valley formation in the Elsterian (0.48 Ma; MIS 12) which forms a large regional-scale glacial unconformity. At the onset of the Pleistocene at 2.58 Ma the North Sea basin was an elongate `mega-fjord' with water depths of up to 350 m, infilling rapidly as the European river systems deposited a large clinoform complex in the southern end of the basin. This period corresponds to the preservation of large scale ice-berg scouring on clinoform topsets, suggesting the presence of marine-terminating ice sheets with repeated calving events. As the Pleistocene progressed and global climate became increasingly colder the North Sea became smaller and shallower due to the continual infill of the basin. At 1.72 Ma the basin reached a critical point between the cold climate and the shallowing of the basin and the first evidence for grounded glaciation in the form of mega-scale glacial lineations is seen at this level. Between 1.72 and 0.48 Ma there is evidence for ice-streaming in the form of multiple MSGL flow sets re-occupying the central North Sea, as well as a large glaciotectonic complex. The glacial geomorphological evidence presented pushes back the date of grounded glaciation in the central North Sea by over one million years relative to the existing models. This raises important questions about the completeness of glaciation histories of Europe and other high and mid latitude land areas that can only be addressed by in depth scrutiny of their adjacent offshore sedimentary records.

Scale Invariant Power Laws Capture the 3-D Coupling Between Water, Energy and Carbon Budgets Across River Basins of Increasing Horton-Strahler Orders in the Andes-Amazon System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poveda, G.; Zapata, A. F.

2016-12-01

The Andes-Amazon system exhibits complex interactions and feedbacks between hydrological, ecological, biogeochemical and climatic factors in a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. We aim to understand the coupling existing between water, energy and carbon budgets in the Andes-Amazon system, by performing a systematic study of the system for river basins of increasing Horton-Strahler orders, from the headwaters of the Amazon River basin along the Andes (order ω=1 river sub-basins) to the low-lying larger river sub-basins (order ω=10). To that end, this works introduces a 3-D generalization of the Budyko framework that aims to link the water, energy, and Carbon budgets in river basins. The newly proposed 3-D non-dimensional space is defined by: (1) the ratio between long-term mean values of Actual Evapotranspiration (AET) and Precipitation (P), α=AET/P, representing the water balance; (2) the ratio between AET and Potential Evapotranspiration (PET), β=AET/PET, representing the energy balance; and (3) the ratio between AET and Aboveground Net Primary Productivity, δ=AET/ANPP, representing the carbon budget. We use a 3" Digital Elevation Model (DEM), which allows defining river basins with Horton-Strahler orders from 1 to 10. The long-term water, energy, and carbon budgets are estimated for increasing values of the Horton-Strahler orders during the period 1987-2007. Data sets pertaining to the water balance come from ORE-HYBAM, potential evapotranspiration (PET) from GLEAM (Global Land-surface Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology). Data for the energy budget are from the Surface Radiation Budget (SRB). Data for the Carbon budget (annual mean net primary productivity, ANPP, gross primary productivity, GPP, and respiration rates, Rr, come from AMAZALERT and ORCHEDEE (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic EcosystEms), as well as from Flux Tower Data and the LBA project. Our results show that scale invariant power-laws emerge to capture the three 2-D cross-sections of the newly proposed 3-D non-dimensional space. The scaling exponents of the identified power laws remain invariant for river basins of Horton-Strahler orders from ω=2 to ω=8. We advance to explain the scaling exponents of the identified power laws in terms of the main physical processes.

Application of the system of environmental economic accounting for water SEEAW to the Spanish part of the Duero basin: Lessons learned.

PubMed

Vicente, D J; Rodríguez-Sinobas, L; Garrote, L; Sánchez, R

2016-09-01

The System of Environmental-Economic Accounting for Water (SEEA-W) consists of an agreed international framework for organizing hydrological and economic information in a coherent and consistent manner. The methodology yields to the SEEA-W physical tables focusing on the quantitative assessment of the stocks and their changes in a river basin during the accounting period. For that purpose, the information on the abstraction and water discharge is linked with the environment water stocks, which assesses how current levels of abstraction and discharge affect such water stocks. This study presents the methodology and results to fill out the SEEAW tables for asset accounts on the Spanish Duero basin. Duero is a transboundary river between Spain and Portugal where 80% of its basin area (78,860km(2)) runs into the Spanish territory. The Spanish part is divided in five zones and 13 management systems. The methodology applied the three models used by the Spanish Water Authorities for the planning and allocation of water resources in Spain: 'SIMPA' model (rainfall-runoff model), 'ASTER' model (hydro-meteorological model related to snow processes) and 'SIMGES' model (water management simulation model). The required information was collected with the support from the Duero River basin Authority and the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture. Special care was paid to issues such as: inter-annual variability, the selection of spatial and temporal scale, seasonality, disaggregation of human abstractions into use's type, and transboundary agreements. The results highlighted some drawbacks in the SEEAW methodology for the Duero basin. However, the developed balances are a valuable tool to support the decisions of the Spanish Duero basin Authority on the management and allocation of water in the basin and in the transboundary area with Portugal. Finally, the paper outlines some recommendations for future work. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An extended linear scaling method for downscaling temperature and its implication in the Jhelum River basin, Pakistan, and India, using CMIP5 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmood, Rashid; JIA, Shaofeng

2017-11-01

In this study, the linear scaling method used for the downscaling of temperature was extended from monthly scaling factors to daily scaling factors (SFs) to improve the daily variations in the corrected temperature. In the original linear scaling (OLS), mean monthly SFs are used to correct the future data, but mean daily SFs are used to correct the future data in the extended linear scaling (ELS) method. The proposed method was evaluated in the Jhelum River basin for the period 1986-2000, using the observed maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) of 18 climate stations and the simulated Tmax and Tmin of five global climate models (GCMs) (GFDL-ESM2G, NorESM1-ME, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and CanESM2), and the method was also compared with OLS to observe the improvement. Before the evaluation of ELS, these GCMs were also evaluated using their raw data against the observed data for the same period (1986-2000). Four statistical indicators, i.e., error in mean, error in standard deviation, root mean square error, and correlation coefficient, were used for the evaluation process. The evaluation results with GCMs' raw data showed that GFDL-ESM2G and MIROC5 performed better than other GCMs according to all the indicators but with unsatisfactory results that confine their direct application in the basin. Nevertheless, after the correction with ELS, a noticeable improvement was observed in all the indicators except correlation coefficient because this method only adjusts (corrects) the magnitude. It was also noticed that the daily variations of the observed data were better captured by the corrected data with ELS than OLS. Finally, the ELS method was applied for the downscaling of five GCMs' Tmax and Tmin for the period of 2041-2070 under RCP8.5 in the Jhelum basin. The results showed that the basin would face hotter climate in the future relative to the present climate, which may result in increasing water requirements in public, industrial, and agriculture sectors; change in the hydrological cycle and monsoon pattern; and lack of glaciers in the basin.

Detrital zircons from the Nanaimo basin, Vancouver Island, British Columbia: An independent test of Late Cretaceous to Cenozoic northward translation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, W. A.; Guest, B.; Coutts, D.; Bain, H.; Hubbard, S.

2017-05-01

The development of the Cordilleran orogen of western North American is disputed despite a century of study. Paleomagnetic observations require large-scale dextral displacements of crustal fragments along the western margin of North America, from low latitudes to moderate latitudes during the Cretaceous-Paleogene. A lack of corroborating geological evidence for large-scale (>1500 km) displacements has prevented the widespread integration of paleomagnetic data into most contemporary tectonic models for the margin. Here we use detrital zircons from the Nanaimo basin, southwestern British Columbia, Canada as an independent test of its Late Cretaceous paleogeographic position. We compare 4310 detrital zircon U/Pb dates from 16 samples to potential source areas in western North America to test hypothesized northern and southern Late Cretaceous paleogeographic positions. Our detrital zircon data suggest that sediment in the Nanaimo basin derives from either a geographically restricted portion of the Belt-Purcell basin or the Mojave-Sonoran region of southwestern North America. A paleogeographic position for the basin adjacent to the Mojave-Sonoran region is preferred as it is consistent with the paleomagnetic results, but further geological, isotopic, or geophysical data are required to rule out a Belt-Purcell source.

Landsat Evapotranspiration for Historical Field-scale Water Use (1984-2015) in the Upper Rio Grande River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senay, G. B.; Schauer, M.; Singh, R. K.; Friedrichs, M.

2017-12-01

Field-scale water use maps derived from evapotranspiration (ET) can characterize water use patterns and the impacts of water management decisions. This project generated historical (1984-2015) Landsat-based ET maps for the entire Upper Rio Grande basin which makes this one of the largest regions in the United States with remotely sensed historical ET at Landsat resolution. More than 10,000 Landsat images spanning 32 years were processed using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model which integrates weather data and remotely sensed images to estimate monthly and annual ET. Time-series analysis focused on three water-intensive study areas within the basin: the San Luis Valley in Colorado, irrigated fields along the Rio Grande River near Albuquerque, NM, and irrigated fields near Las Cruces, NM. Preliminary analysis suggests land use changes result in declining water use in irrigated areas of the basin which corresponds with increases in land surface temperatures. Time-series analysis of water use patterns at multiple temporal and spatial scales demonstrates the impact of water management decisions on the availability of water in the basin. Comparisons with cropland data from the USDA (NASS CDL) demonstrate how water use for particular crop types changes over time in response to land use changes and shifts in water management. This study illustrates a useful application of "Big Data" earth observation science for quantifying impacts of climate and land use changes on water availability within the United States as well as applications in planning water resource allocation, managing water rights, and sustaining agricultural production in the Upper Rio Grande basin.

A coupled modeling framework for sustainable watershed management in transboundary river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furqan Khan, Hassaan; Yang, Y. C. Ethan; Xie, Hua; Ringler, Claudia

2017-12-01

There is a growing recognition among water resource managers that sustainable watershed management needs to not only account for the diverse ways humans benefit from the environment, but also incorporate the impact of human actions on the natural system. Coupled natural-human system modeling through explicit modeling of both natural and human behavior can help reveal the reciprocal interactions and co-evolution of the natural and human systems. This study develops a spatially scalable, generalized agent-based modeling (ABM) framework consisting of a process-based semi-distributed hydrologic model (SWAT) and a decentralized water system model to simulate the impacts of water resource management decisions that affect the food-water-energy-environment (FWEE) nexus at a watershed scale. Agents within a river basin are geographically delineated based on both political and watershed boundaries and represent key stakeholders of ecosystem services. Agents decide about the priority across three primary water uses: food production, hydropower generation and ecosystem health within their geographical domains. Agents interact with the environment (streamflow) through the SWAT model and interact with other agents through a parameter representing willingness to cooperate. The innovative two-way coupling between the water system model and SWAT enables this framework to fully explore the feedback of human decisions on the environmental dynamics and vice versa. To support non-technical stakeholder interactions, a web-based user interface has been developed that allows for role-play and participatory modeling. The generalized ABM framework is also tested in two key transboundary river basins, the Mekong River basin in Southeast Asia and the Niger River basin in West Africa, where water uses for ecosystem health compete with growing human demands on food and energy resources. We present modeling results for crop production, energy generation and violation of eco-hydrological indicators at both the agent and basin-wide levels to shed light on holistic FWEE management policies in these two basins.

Simulations of hydrologic response in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, Southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Jones, L. Elliott; Painter, Jaime A.

2017-12-29

A suite of hydrologic models has been developed for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin (ACFB) as part of the National Water Census, a U.S. Geological Survey research program that focuses on developing new water accounting tools and assessing water availability and use at the regional and national scales. Seven hydrologic models were developed using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, land cover, and water use on basin hydrology. A coarse-resolution PRMS model was developed for the entire ACFB, and six fine-resolution PRMS models were developed for six subbasins of the ACFB. The coarse-resolution model was loosely coupled with a groundwater model to better assess the effects of water use on streamflow in the lower ACFB, a complex geologic setting with karst features. The PRMS coarse-resolution model was used to provide inputs of recharge to the groundwater model, which in turn provide simulations of groundwater flow that were aggregated with PRMS-based simulations of surface runoff and shallow-subsurface flow. Simulations without the effects of water use were developed for each model for at least the calendar years 1982–2012 with longer periods for the Potato Creek subbasin (1942–2012) and the Spring Creek subbasin (1952–2012). Water-use-affected flows were simulated for 2008–12. Water budget simulations showed heterogeneous distributions of precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, recharge, runoff, and storage change across the ACFB. Streamflow volume differences between no-water-use and water-use simulations were largest along the main stem of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee River Basins, with streamflow percentage differences largest in the upper Chattahoochee and Flint River Basins and Spring Creek in the lower Flint River Basin. Water-use information at a shorter time step and a fully coupled simulation in the lower ACFB may further improve water availability estimates and hydrologic simulations in the basin.

Significant Findings: Seasonal Distributions of Global Ocean Chlorophyll and Nutrients With a Coupled Ocean General Circulation, Biogeochemical, and Radiative Model. 2; Comparisons With Satellite and In Situ Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.; Busalacchi, Antonio (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A coupled ocean general circulation, biogeochemical, and radiative model was constructed to evaluate and understand the nature of seasonal variability of chlorophyll and nutrients in the global oceans. Biogeochemical processes in the model were determined from the influences of circulation and turbulence dynamics, irradiance availability, and the interactions among three functional phytoplankton groups (diatoms, chlorophytes, and picoplankton) and three nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, and silicate). Basin scale (>1000 km) model chlorophyll seasonal distributions were statistically positively correlated with CZCS chlorophyll in 10 of 12 major oceanographic regions, and with SeaWiFS in all 12. Notable disparities in magnitudes occurred, however, in the tropical Pacific, the spring/summer bloom in the Antarctic, autumn in the northern high latitudes, and during the southwest monsoon in the North Indian Ocean. Synoptic scale (100-1000 km) comparisons of satellite and in situ data exhibited broad agreement, although occasional departures were apparent. Model nitrate distributions agreed with in situ data, including seasonal dynamics, except for the equatorial Atlantic. The overall agreement of the model with satellite and in situ data sources indicated that the model dynamics offer a reasonably realistic simulation of phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics on basin and synoptic scales.

Vesta's north pole quadrangle Av-1 (Albana): Geologic map and the nature of the south polar basin antipodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blewett, David T.; Buczkowski, Debra L.; Ruesch, Ottaviano; Scully, Jennifer E.; O'Brien, David P.; Gaskell, Robert; Roatsch, Thomas; Bowling, Timothy J.; Ermakov, Anton; Hiesinger, Harald; Williams, David A.; Raymond, Carol A.; Russell, Christopher T.

2014-12-01

As part of systematic global mapping of Vesta using data returned by the Dawn spacecraft, we have produced a geologic map of the north pole quadrangle, Av-1 Albana. Extensive seasonal shadows were present in the north polar region at the time of the Dawn observations, limiting the ability to map morphological features and employ color or spectral data for determination of composition. The major recognizable units present include ancient cratered highlands and younger crater-related units (undivided ejecta, and mass-wasting material on crater floors). The antipode of Vesta's large southern impact basins, Rheasilvia and Veneneia, lie within or near the Av-1 quadrangle. Therefore it is of particular interest to search for evidence of features of the kind that are found at basin antipodes on other planetary bodies. Albedo markings known as lunar swirls are correlated with basin antipodes and the presence of crustal magnetic anomalies on the Moon, but lighting conditions preclude recognition of such albedo features in images of the antipode of Vesta's Rheasilvia basin. “Hilly and lineated terrain,” found at the antipodes of large basins on the Moon and Mercury, is not present at the Rheasilvia or Veneneia antipodes. We have identified small-scale linear depressions that may be related to increased fracturing in the Rheasilvia and Veneneia antipodal areas, consistent with impact-induced stresses (Buczkowski, D. et al. [2012b]. Analysis of the large scale troughs on Vesta and correlation to a model of giant impact into a differentiated asteroid. Geol. Soc. of America Annual Meeting. Abstract 152-4; Bowling, T.J. et al. [2013]. J. Geophys. Res. - Planets, 118. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jgre.20123). The general high elevation of much of the north polar region could, in part, be a result of uplift caused by the Rheasilvia basin-forming impact, as predicted by numerical modeling (Bowling, T.J. et al. [2013]. J. Geophys. Res. - Planets, 118. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jgre.20123). However, stratigraphic and crater size-frequency distribution analysis indicate that the elevated terrain predates the two southern basins and hence is likely a remnant of the ancient vestan crust. The lack of large-scale morphological features at the basin antipodes can be attributed to weakened antipodal constructive interference of seismic waves caused by an oblique impact or by Vesta's non-spherical shape, or by attenuation of seismic waves because of the physical properties of Vesta's interior. A first-order analysis of the Dawn global digital elevation model for Vesta indicates that areas of permanent shadow are unlikely to be present in the vicinity of the north pole.

MoGIRE: A Model for Integrated Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynaud, A.; Leenhardt, D.

2008-12-01

Climate change and growing water needs have resulted in many parts of the world in water scarcity problems that must by managed by public authorities. Hence, policy-makers are more and more often asked to define and to implement water allocation rules between competitive users. This requires to develop new tools aiming at designing those rules for various scenarios of context (climatic, agronomic, economic). If models have been developed for each type of water use however, very few integrated frameworks link these different uses, while such an integrated approach is a relevant stake for designing regional water and land policies. The lack of such integrated models can be explained by the difficulty of integrating models developed by very different disciplines and by the problem of scale change (collecting data on large area, arbitrate between the computational tractability of models and their level of aggregation). However, modelers are more and more asked to deal with large basin scales while analyzing some policy impacts at very high detailed levels. These contradicting objectives require to develop new modeling tools. The CALVIN economically-driven optimization model developed for managing water in California is a good example of this type of framework, Draper et al. (2003). Recent reviews of the literature on integrated water management at the basin level include Letcher et al. (2007) or Cai (2008). We present here an original framework for integrated water management at the river basin scale called MoGIRE ("Modèle pour la Gestion Intégrée de la Ressource en Eau"). It is intended to optimize water use at the river basin level and to evaluate scenarios (agronomic, climatic or economic) for a better planning of agricultural and non-agricultural water use. MoGIRE includes a nodal representation of the water network. Agricultural, urban and environmental water uses are also represented using mathematical programming and econometric approaches. The model then optimizes at each date (10 days step) the allocation of water across agricultural and urban water demands in order to maximize the social surplus derived from water consumption given the constraints imposed by the water network. An application of the model is proposed for the Neste system located in South-West of France. 67 regions competing for water allocation have been identified in the Neste system. Those regions are characterized by specific cropping systems, specific climate and soil characteristics and by their connections to the water network. The model, including the nodal representation of the water network, has been coded using the algebraic modeling language GAMS. We are currently analyzing the robustness of the approach through scenario testing. Keywords : Integrated water management, optimization-simulation model, agronomic-economic modeling, river basin.

Parametrisation of initial conditions for seasonal stream flow forecasting in the Swiss Rhine basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schick, Simon; Rössler, Ole; Weingartner, Rolf

2016-04-01

Current climate forecast models show - to the best of our knowledge - low skill in forecasting climate variability in Central Europe at seasonal lead times. When it comes to seasonal stream flow forecasting, initial conditions thus play an important role. Here, initial conditions refer to the catchments moisture at the date of forecast, i.e. snow depth, stream flow and lake level, soil moisture content, and groundwater level. The parametrisation of these initial conditions can take place at various spatial and temporal scales. Examples are the grid size of a distributed model or the time aggregation of predictors in statistical models. Therefore, the present study aims to investigate the extent to which the parametrisation of initial conditions at different spatial scales leads to differences in forecast errors. To do so, we conduct a forecast experiment for the Swiss Rhine at Basel, which covers parts of Germany, Austria, and Switzerland and is southerly bounded by the Alps. Seasonal mean stream flow is defined for the time aggregation of 30, 60, and 90 days and forecasted at 24 dates within the calendar year, i.e. at the 1st and 16th day of each month. A regression model is employed due to the various anthropogenic effects on the basins hydrology, which often are not quantifiable but might be grasped by a simple black box model. Furthermore, the pool of candidate predictors consists of antecedent temperature, precipitation, and stream flow only. This pragmatic approach follows the fact that observations of variables relevant for hydrological storages are either scarce in space or time (soil moisture, groundwater level), restricted to certain seasons (snow depth), or regions (lake levels, snow depth). For a systematic evaluation, we therefore focus on the comprehensive archives of meteorological observations and reanalyses to estimate the initial conditions via climate variability prior to the date of forecast. The experiment itself is based on four different approaches, whose differences in model skill were estimated within a rigorous cross-validation framework for the period 1982-2013: The predictands are regressed on antecedent temperature, precipitation, and stream flow. Here, temperature and precipitation constitute basin averages out of the E-OBS gridded data set. As in 1., but temperature and precipitation are used at the E-OBS grid scale (0.25 degree in longitude and latitude) without spatial averaging. As in 1., but the regression model is applied to 66 gauged subcatchments of the Rhine basin. Forecasts for these subcatchments are then simply summed and upscaled to the area of the Rhine basin. As in 3., but the forecasts at the subcatchment scale are additionally weighted in terms of hydrological representativeness of the corresponding subcatchment.

Spatial Scaling of Floods in Atlantic Coastal Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plank, C.

2013-12-01

Climate and land use changes are altering global, regional and local hydrologic cycles. As a result, past events may not accurately represent the events that will occur in the future. Methods for hydrologic prediction, both statistical and deterministic, require adequate data for calibration. Streamflow gauges tend to be located on large rivers. As a result, statistical flood frequency analysis, which relies on gauge data, is biased towards large watersheds. Conversely, the complexity of parameterizing watershed processes in deterministic hydrological models limits these to small watersheds. Spatial scaling relationships between drainage basin area and discharge can be used to bridge these two methodologies and provide new approaches to hydrologic prediction. The relationship of discharge (Q) to drainage basin area (A) can be expressed as a power function: Q = αAθ. This study compares scaling exponents (θ) and coefficients (α) for floods of varying magnitude across a selection of major Atlantic Coast watersheds. Comparisons are made by normalizing flood discharges to a reference area bankfull discharge for each watershed. These watersheds capture the geologic and geomorphic transitions along the Atlantic Coast from narrow bedrock-dominated river valleys to wide coastal plain watersheds. Additionally, there is a range of hydrometeorological events that cause major floods in these basins including tropical storms, thunderstorm systems and winter-spring storms. The mix of flood-producing events changes along a gradient as well, with tropical storms and hurricanes increasing in dominance from north to south as a significant cause of major floods. Scaling exponents and coefficients were determined for both flood quantile estimates (e.g. 1.5-, 10-, 100-year floods) and selected hydrometeorological events (e.g. hurricanes, summer thunderstorms, winter-spring storms). Initial results indicate that southern coastal plain watersheds have lower scaling exponents (θ) than northern watersheds. However, the relative magnitudes of 100-year and other large floods are higher in the coastal plain rivers. In the transition zone between northern and southern watersheds, basins like the Potomac in the Mid-Atlantic region have similar scaling exponents as northern river basins, but relative flood magnitudes comparable to the southern coastal plain watersheds. These differences reflect variations in both geologic/geomorphic and climatic settings. Understanding these variations are important to appropriately using these relationships to improve flood risk models and analyses.

Spatial and temporal patterns of bank failure during extreme flood events: Evidence of nonlinearity and self-organised criticality at the basin scale?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, C. J.; Croke, J. C.; Grove, J. R.

2012-04-01

Non-linearity in physical systems provides a conceptual framework to explain complex patterns and form that are derived from complex internal dynamics rather than external forcings, and can be used to inform modeling and improve landscape management. One process that has been investigated previously to explore the existence of self-organised critical system (SOC) in river systems at the basin-scale is bank failure. Spatial trends in bank failure have been previously quantified to determine if the distribution of bank failures at the basin scale exhibit the necessary power law magnitude/frequency distributions. More commonly bank failures are investigated at a small-scale using several cross-sections with strong emphasis on local-scale factors such as bank height, cohesion and hydraulic properties. Advancing our understanding of non-linearity in such processes, however, requires many more studies where both the spatial and temporal measurements of the process can be used to investigate the existence or otherwise of non-linearity and self-organised criticality. This study presents measurements of bank failure throughout the Lockyer catchment in southeast Queensland, Australia, which experienced an extreme flood event in January 2011 resulting in the loss of human lives and geomorphic channel change. The most dominant form of fluvial adjustment consisted of changes in channel geometry and notably widespread bank failures, which were readily identifiable as 'scalloped' shaped failure scarps. The spatial extents of these were mapped using high-resolution LiDAR derived digital elevation model and were verified by field surveys and air photos. Pre-flood event LiDAR coverage for the catchment also existed allowing direct comparison of the magnitude and frequency of bank failures from both pre and post-flood time periods. Data were collected and analysed within a GIS framework and investigated for power-law relationships. Bank failures appeared random and occurred throughout the basin but plots of magnitude and frequency did display power-law scaling of failures. In addition, there was a lack of site specific correlations between bank failure and other factors such channel width, bank height and stream power. The data are used here to discuss the existence of SOC in fluvial systems and the relative role of local and basin-wide processes in influencing their distribution in space and time.

Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Katrina E.; Bohn, Theodore J.; Solander, Kurt; McDowell, Nathan G.; Xu, Chonggang; Vivoni, Enrique; Middleton, Richard S.

2018-01-01

Accelerated climate change and associated forest disturbances in the southwestern USA are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources. Few studies have quantified the impact of both climate change and land cover disturbances on water balances on the basin scale, and none on the regional scale. In this work, we evaluate the impacts of forest disturbances and climate change on a headwater basin to the Colorado River, the San Juan River watershed, using a robustly calibrated (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency 0.76) hydrologic model run with updated formulations that improve estimates of evapotranspiration for semi-arid regions. Our results show that future disturbances will have a substantial impact on streamflow with implications for water resource management. Our findings are in contradiction with conventional thinking that forest disturbances reduce evapotranspiration and increase streamflow. In this study, annual average regional streamflow under the coupled climate-disturbance scenarios is at least 6-11 % lower than those scenarios accounting for climate change alone; for forested zones of the San Juan River basin, streamflow is 15-21 % lower. The monthly signals of altered streamflow point to an emergent streamflow pattern related to changes in forests of the disturbed systems. Exacerbated reductions of mean and low flows under disturbance scenarios indicate a high risk of low water availability for forested headwater systems of the Colorado River basin. These findings also indicate that explicit representation of land cover disturbances is required in modeling efforts that consider the impact of climate change on water resources.

The Transboundary Waters Assessment Programme (TWAP) River Basin Component Methods and Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Sherbinin, A. M.; Glennie, P.

2014-12-01

The Transboundary Waters Assessment Programme (TWAP) was initiated by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) to create the first baseline assessment of all of the planet's transboundary water resources. The TWAP River Basin component consists of a baseline comparative assessment of 270 transboundary river basins, including all but the smallest basins, to enable the identification of priority issues and hotspots at risk from a variety of stressors. The assessment is indicator based and it is intended to provide a relative analysis of basins based on risks to societies and ecosystems. Models and observational data have been used to create 14 indicators covering environmental, human and agricultural water stress; nutrient and wastewater pollution; extinction risk; governance and institutions; economic dependence on water resources; societal wellbeing at sub-basin scales; and societal risks from climate extremes. The methodology is not limited to transboundary basins, but can be applied to all river basins. This presentation will provide a summary of the methods and results of the TWAP River Basin component. It will also briefly discuss preliminary results of the TWAP lakes and aquifer components.

The Role of Forests in Regulating the River Flow Regime of Large Basins of the World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salazar, J. F.; Villegas, J. C.; Mercado-Bettin, D. A.; Rodríguez, E.

2016-12-01

Many natural and social phenomena depend on river flow regimes that are being altered by global change. Understanding the mechanisms behind such alterations is crucial for predicting river flow regimes in a changing environment. Here we explore potential linkages between the presence of forests and the capacity of river basins for regulating river flows. Regulation is defined here as the capacity of river basins to attenuate the amplitude of the river flow regime, that is to reduce the difference between high and low flows. We first use scaling theory to show how scaling properties of observed river flows can be used to classify river basins as regulated or unregulated. This parsimonious classification is based on a physical interpretation of the scaling properties (particularly the scaling exponents) that is novel (most previous studies have focused on the interpretation of the scaling exponents for floods only), and widely-applicable to different basins (the only assumption is that river flows in a given river basin exhibit scaling properties through well-known power laws). Then we show how this scaling framework can be used to explore global-change-induced temporal variations in the regulation capacity of river basins. Finally, we propose a conceptual hypothesis (the "Forest reservoir concept") to explain how large-scale forests can exert important effects on the long-term water balance partitioning and regulation capacity of large basins of the world. Our quantitative results are based on data analysis (river flows and land cover features) from 22 large basins of the world, with emphasis in the Amazon river and its main tributaries. Collectively, our findings support the hypothesis that forest cover enhances the capacity of large river basins to maintain relatively high mean river flows, as well as to regulate (ameliorate) extreme river flows. Advancing towards this quantitative understanding of the relation between forest cover and river flow regimes is crucial for water management- and land cover-related decisions.

The Role of Forests in Regulating the River Flow Regime of Large Basins of the World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salazar, J. F.; Villegas, J. C.; Mercado-Bettin, D. A.; Rodríguez, E.

2017-12-01

Many natural and social phenomena depend on river flow regimes that are being altered by global change. Understanding the mechanisms behind such alterations is crucial for predicting river flow regimes in a changing environment. Here we explore potential linkages between the presence of forests and the capacity of river basins for regulating river flows. Regulation is defined here as the capacity of river basins to attenuate the amplitude of the river flow regime, that is to reduce the difference between high and low flows. We first use scaling theory to show how scaling properties of observed river flows can be used to classify river basins as regulated or unregulated. This parsimonious classification is based on a physical interpretation of the scaling properties (particularly the scaling exponents) that is novel (most previous studies have focused on the interpretation of the scaling exponents for floods only), and widely-applicable to different basins (the only assumption is that river flows in a given river basin exhibit scaling properties through well-known power laws). Then we show how this scaling framework can be used to explore global-change-induced temporal variations in the regulation capacity of river basins. Finally, we propose a conceptual hypothesis (the "Forest reservoir concept") to explain how large-scale forests can exert important effects on the long-term water balance partitioning and regulation capacity of large basins of the world. Our quantitative results are based on data analysis (river flows and land cover features) from 22 large basins of the world, with emphasis in the Amazon river and its main tributaries. Collectively, our findings support the hypothesis that forest cover enhances the capacity of large river basins to maintain relatively high mean river flows, as well as to regulate (ameliorate) extreme river flows. Advancing towards this quantitative understanding of the relation between forest cover and river flow regimes is crucial for water management- and land cover-related decisions.

The subglacial roughness of Antarctica: Analogs, interpretation and implications for ice thickness uncertainities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, D. A.; Grima, C.; Greenbaum, J. S.; Beem, L.; Cavitte, M. G.; Quartini, E.; Kempf, S. D.; Roberts, J. L.; Siegert, M. J.; Ritz, C.; Blankenship, D. D.

2017-12-01

Over the last twenty five years, extensive ice penetrating radar (IPR) coverage of Antarctica has been obtained, at lines spacings down to 1 km in some cases. However, many glacial processes occur at finer scales, so infering likely landscape parameters is required for a useful interpolation between lines. Profile roughness is also important for understanding the uncertainties inherent in IPR observations. Subglacial roughness has also been used to infer large scale bed rock properties and history. Similar work has been conducted on a regional basis with complilations of data from the 1970's and more recent local studies. Here we present a compilation of IPR-derived profile roughness data covering three great basins of Antarctica: the Byrd Subglacial Basin in West Antarctica, and the Wilkes Subglacial Basin and Aurora Subglacial Basins in East Antarctica; and treat these data using root mean squared deviation (RMSD). Coverage is provied by a range of IPR systems with varying vintages with differing instrument and processing parameters; we present approaches to account for the differences between these systems. We use RMSD, a tool commonly used in planetary investigations, to investigate the self-affine behaviour of the bed at kilometer scales and extract fractal parameters from the data to predict roughness and uncertainties in ice thickness measurement. Lastly, we apply a sensor model to a range of bare-earth terrestrial digital elevation models to futher understand the impact of the sensor model on the inference of subglacial topography and roughness, and to the first order analogies for the lithology of the substrate. This map of roughness, at scales between the pulse limited radar footprint and typical line spacings, provides an understanding of the distribution of Paleogene subglacial sediments, insight in to the distribution of uncertainties and a potential basal properties mask for ice sheet models. A particular goal of this map is to provide insight into required IPR coverage needs for site selection for old ice and subglacial samples for subglacial access systems like US-RAID and SUBGLACIOR.

Basin-scale characterization of river hydromorphology by map derived information: A case study on the Red River (Sông Hông), Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitt, R. J.; Bizzi, S.; Castelletti, A.

2012-12-01

The understanding of river hydromorphological processes has been recognized in the last decades as a priority of modern catchment management, since fluvial geomorphic processes shape physical habitat, affect river infrastructures and influence freshwater ecological processes. Characterization of river hydromorphological features is commonly location specific and highly demanding in terms of field-works, resource and expertise required. Therefore, its routine application at regional or national scales, although an urgent need of catchment management, is infeasible at present. Recently available high-resolution data, such as DEM or LIDAR, opens up novel potential for basin-wide analysis of fluvial processes at limited effort and cost. Specifically, in this study we assess the feasibility of characterizing river hydromorphology from specific map derived geomorphic controls namely: channel gradient, bankfull flow, specific stream power, and degree of channel confinement. The river network, extracted from a digital elevation model and validated with available network shape-files and optical satellite imagery, available flow gauging stations and GIS processing allow producing continuous values of geomorphic drivers defined over given length segments at catchment or regional scales. This generic framework was applied to the Red River (Sông Hông) basin, the second largest basin (87,800 km2) in Vietnam. Besides its economic importance, the river since few years is experiencing severe river bed incisions due to the building of new dams in the upstream part of the catchment and sand mining in the surrounding of the capital city Hanoi. In this context, characterized by an high developing rate, current efforts to increase water productivity by infrastructure and management measures require a thorough understanding of fluvial system and, in particular, of the basin-wide river hydromorphology. The framework proposed has allowed producing high-dimensional samples of spatially distributed geomorphic drivers at catchment scale for the Red River basin. This novel dataset has been then analysed using self-organizing maps (SOM) an artificial neural network model that is capable of learning from complex, multidimensional data without specification of what the outputs should be, and of generating a nonlinear classification of visually decipherable clusters. The use of the above framework allowed to analyze the spatial distribution of geomorphic features at catchment scale, reviling patterns of similarities and dissimilarities within the catchment and allowing classification of river reaches characterized by similar geomorphic drivers and then likely (but still to be validated) fluvial processes. The paper proposes an innovative and promising technique to produce hydromorphological classifications at catchment scale opening the way towards regional or national scale hydromorphological assessments through automatic GIS and statistical procedures with moderate effort, an urgent requirement of modern catchment management.

Modelling nutrient fluxes from diffuse and point emissions to river loads: the Estonian part of the transboundary Lake Peipsi/Chudskoe drainage basin (Russia/Estonia/Latvia).

PubMed

Mourad, D; van der Perk, M

2004-01-01

First results are presented of a large-scale GIS-based nutrient transport modelling for the 1985-1999 period in the Estonian part of the transboundary drainage basin of Lake Peipsi (Estonian)/Chudskoe (Russian), one of the largest lakes in Europe, shared by Russia and Estonia. Although the lake is relatively undisturbed by human pollution, it is vulnerable for eutrophication by increased river loads, as shown in the past, when the north-eastern part of the former Soviet Union suffered from intensive agriculture. The collapse of the Soviet Union caused a dramatic decline in fertilizer application rates and widespread abandonment of agricultural land. Although concentration measurements and modelling results indicate a general decrease in nutrient loads, modelling is complicated by the transfer of nutrients from diffuse emissions, which is strongly governed by retention and assumed periodic release from storages within the river basin, like the root zone, tile drains, ditches, channels, bed sediments, floodplains and lakes. Modelling diffuse emission contribution to river loads can be improved by better knowledge about the spatial and temporal distribution of this retention and release within the drainage basin.

Integrated watershed-scale response to climate change for selected basins across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Ward-Garrison, D. Christian; Risley, John C.; Battaglin, William A.; Bjerklie, David M.; Chase, Katherine J.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Dudley, Robert W.; Hunt, Randall J.; Koczot, Kathryn M.; Mastin, Mark C.; Regan, R. Steven; Viger, Roland J.; Vining, Kevin C.; Walker, John F.

2012-01-01

A study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) evaluated the hydrologic response to different projected carbon emission scenarios of the 21st century using a hydrologic simulation model. This study involved five major steps: (1) setup, calibrate and evaluated the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model in 14 basins across the United States by local USGS personnel; (2) acquire selected simulated carbon emission scenarios from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; (3) statistical downscaling of these scenarios to create PRMS input files which reflect the future climatic conditions of these scenarios; (4) generate PRMS projections for the carbon emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and (5) analyze the modeled hydrologic response. This report presents an overview of this study, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results. A key finding is that the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the United States to potential climate change may be different, depending on the dominant physical processes of that particular region. Also considered is the tremendous amount of uncertainty present in the carbon emission scenarios and how this uncertainty propagates through the hydrologic simulations.

Phosphorus Export Model Development in a Terminal Lake Basin using Concentration-Streamflow Relationship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeannotte, T.; Mahmood, T. H.; Matheney, R.; Hou, X.

2017-12-01

Nutrient export to streams and lakes by anthropogenic activities can lead to eutrophication and degradation of surface water quality. In Devils Lake, ND, the only terminal lake in the Northern Great Plains, the algae boom is of great concern due to the recent increase in streamflow and consequent rise in phosphorus (P) export from prairie agricultural fields. However, to date, very few studies explored the concentration (c) -streamflow (q) relationship in the headwater catchments of the Devils Lake basin. A robust watershed-scale quantitative framework would aid understanding of the c-q relationship, simulating P concentration and load. In this study, we utilize c-q relationships to develop a simple model to estimate phosphorus concentration and export from two headwater catchments of different size (Mauvais Coulee: 1032 km2 and Trib 3: 160 km2) draining to Devils Lake. Our goal is to link the phosphorus export model with a physically based hydrologic model to identify major drivers of phosphorus export. USGS provided the streamflow measurements, and we collected water samples (filtered and unfiltered) three times daily during the spring snowmelt season (March 31, 2017- April 12, 2017) at the outlets of both headwater catchments. Our results indicate that most P is dissolved and very little is particulate, suggesting little export of fine-grained sediment from agricultural fields. Our preliminary analyses in the Mauvais Coulee catchment show a chemostatic c-q relationship in the rising limb of the hydrograph, while the recession limb shows a linear and positive c-q relationship. The poor correlation in the rising limb of the hydrograph suggests intense flushing of P by spring snowmelt runoff. Flushing then continues in the recession limb of the hydrograph, but at a more constant rate. The estimated total P load for the Mauvais Coulee basin is 193 kg/km2, consistent with other catchments of similar size across the Red River of the North basin to the east. We expect our P measurements at Trib 3 basin, a considerably smaller basin compared to Mauvais Coulee, provide an opportunity to investigate the impacts of watershed scales on nutrient exports and c-q relationship. Finally, our study will lay a strong foundation for future nutrient modeling studies in the Devils Lake basin.

Modeled streamflow metrics on small, ungaged stream reaches in the Upper Colorado River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Shafroth, Patrick B.

2016-01-20

Modeling streamflow is an important approach for understanding landscape-scale drivers of flow and estimating flows where there are no streamgage records. In this study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with Colorado State University, the objectives were to model streamflow metrics on small, ungaged streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin and identify streams that are potentially threatened with becoming intermittent under drier climate conditions. The Upper Colorado River Basin is a region that is critical for water resources and also projected to experience large future climate shifts toward a drying climate. A random forest modeling approach was used to model the relationship between streamflow metrics and environmental variables. Flow metrics were then projected to ungaged reaches in the Upper Colorado River Basin using environmental variables for each stream, represented as raster cells, in the basin. Last, the projected random forest models of minimum flow coefficient of variation and specific mean daily flow were used to highlight streams that had greater than 61.84 percent minimum flow coefficient of variation and less than 0.096 specific mean daily flow and suggested that these streams will be most threatened to shift to intermittent flow regimes under drier climate conditions. Map projection products can help scientists, land managers, and policymakers understand current hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin and make informed decisions regarding water resources. With knowledge of which streams are likely to undergo significant drying in the future, managers and scientists can plan for stream-dependent ecosystems and human water users.

Comparing potential recharge estimates from three Land Surface Models across the Western US

PubMed Central

NIRAULA, REWATI; MEIXNER, THOMAS; AJAMI, HOORI; RODELL, MATTHEW; GOCHIS, DAVID; CASTRO, CHRISTOPHER L.

2018-01-01

Groundwater is a major source of water in the western US. However, there are limited recharge estimates available in this region due to the complexity of recharge processes and the challenge of direct observations. Land surface Models (LSMs) could be a valuable tool for estimating current recharge and projecting changes due to future climate change. In this study, simulations of three LSMs (Noah, Mosaic and VIC) obtained from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) are used to estimate potential recharge in the western US. Modeled recharge was compared with published recharge estimates for several aquifers in the region. Annual recharge to precipitation ratios across the study basins varied from 0.01–15% for Mosaic, 3.2–42% for Noah, and 6.7–31.8% for VIC simulations. Mosaic consistently underestimates recharge across all basins. Noah captures recharge reasonably well in wetter basins, but overestimates it in drier basins. VIC slightly overestimates recharge in drier basins and slightly underestimates it for wetter basins. While the average annual recharge values vary among the models, the models were consistent in identifying high and low recharge areas in the region. Models agree in seasonality of recharge occurring dominantly during the spring across the region. Overall, our results highlight that LSMs have the potential to capture the spatial and temporal patterns as well as seasonality of recharge at large scales. Therefore, LSMs (specifically VIC and Noah) can be used as a tool for estimating future recharge rates in data limited regions. PMID:29618845

Evaluation of SNODAS snow depth and snow water equivalent estimates for the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clow, David W.; Nanus, Leora; Verdin, Kristine L.; Schmidt, Jeffrey

2012-01-01

The National Weather Service's Snow Data Assimilation (SNODAS) program provides daily, gridded estimates of snow depth, snow water equivalent (SWE), and related snow parameters at a 1-km2 resolution for the conterminous USA. In this study, SNODAS snow depth and SWE estimates were compared with independent, ground-based snow survey data in the Colorado Rocky Mountains to assess SNODAS accuracy at the 1-km2 scale. Accuracy also was evaluated at the basin scale by comparing SNODAS model output to snowmelt runoff in 31 headwater basins with US Geological Survey stream gauges. Results from the snow surveys indicated that SNODAS performed well in forested areas, explaining 72% of the variance in snow depths and 77% of the variance in SWE. However, SNODAS showed poor agreement with measurements in alpine areas, explaining 16% of the variance in snow depth and 30% of the variance in SWE. At the basin scale, snowmelt runoff was moderately correlated (R2 = 0.52) with SNODAS model estimates. A simple method for adjusting SNODAS SWE estimates in alpine areas was developed that uses relations between prevailing wind direction, terrain, and vegetation to account for wind redistribution of snow in alpine terrain. The adjustments substantially improved agreement between measurements and SNODAS estimates, with the R2 of measured SWE values against SNODAS SWE estimates increasing from 0.42 to 0.63 and the root mean square error decreasing from 12 to 6 cm. Results from this study indicate that SNODAS can provide reliable data for input to moderate-scale to large-scale hydrologic models, which are essential for creating accurate runoff forecasts. Refinement of SNODAS SWE estimates for alpine areas to account for wind redistribution of snow could further improve model performance. Published 2011. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Principles for an interactive multi-scale assessment of sustainable production limits - lessons from the Limpopo river basin case, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Froebrich, Jochen; de Cleccq, Willem; Veraart, Jeroen; Vullings, Wies

2015-04-01

About 7.2 billion people currently live on the Earth and the population is projected to reach 9.6 billion by 2050, that growth will be mainly in developing countries, with more than half in Africa (United Nations 2013). Any local extension of irrigated agriculture in a region of scarce natural resources may potentially restrict the possibility to extend land and water use at another location of the same river basin. In order to support, develop and to assess such future interventions, it is important to define limits until which a sustainable production can take place at a given location, taking into account competing claims on natural resources, human welfare and impacts on environmental quality. We define Sustainable production limits as limits for the possible resource use, within which a production can be extended without restricting the growth opportunities at a neighboured location. The more threatened the natural resources become, the more important it is to consider the effect of other upcoming interventions within the same region. As a consequence, interventions for future resource use have to be assessed against the future available natural resources. This is of particular relevance for evaluating possible extensions of irrigation areas within a river basin. Investigating possible limits for extending irrigated agriculture at local scale requires an understanding of the complexity, including boundaries, activities, stakeholders, and opportunities at river basin scale, and more. Switching between the scales in this information, in a participatory process, appears to be a challenge in its own. Within the Limpopo River basin (South Africa), we analysed (i) possible interventions at local scale (transdisciplinary innovation of irrigation by smallholders, launching of PPPs), (ii) restrictions for developing irrigation at the Letaba sub basin scale, and (iii) water balance at the scale of the Limpopo basin. Experiences from the Limpopo case revealed, that within the field of socio-hydrology interventions affecting land and water use, depend for a large part on entrepreneurial or at least human initiatives and an enabling environment. Such variables cannot be included in quantitative deterministic models. Therefore we have to find other ways to anticipate future developments. Furthermore for the upscaling - downscaling of local interventions it is important to reduce complexity. Instead of providing a plethora of scenarios, which will only hinder decision making, the process of defining sustainable production limits have to cumulate in a jointly shared strategy for the most likely future use of land, water and biodiversity resources. More experience must be gained how to facilitate such an interactive development of a jointly shared strategy best. Modern interactive IT tools can play a major role, but require a strong interaction with hydrological models and water balance calculation at the various scales. Acknowledgement The work has been partly executed within the EU project FP7 EAU4Food, the PPP project Inno Giyani, which is funded by the Dutch Government, and the Dutch funded project "More food on smaller footprint". The authors are grateful to all project partners and colleagues for the contributions and discussion.

New insight on petroleum system modeling of Ghadames basin, Libya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bora, Deepender; Dubey, Siddharth

2015-12-01

Underdown and Redfern (2008) performed a detailed petroleum system modeling of the Ghadames basin along an E-W section. However, hydrocarbon generation, migration and accumulation changes significantly across the basin due to complex geological history. Therefore, a single section can't be considered representative for the whole basin. This study aims at bridging this gap by performing petroleum system modeling along a N-S section and provides new insights on source rock maturation, generation and migration of the hydrocarbons using 2D basin modeling. This study in conjunction with earlier work provides a 3D context of petroleum system modeling in the Ghadames basin. Hydrocarbon generation from the lower Silurian Tanezzuft formation and the Upper Devonian Aouinet Ouenine started during the late Carboniferous. However, high subsidence rate during middle to late Cretaceous and elevated heat flow in Cenozoic had maximum impact on source rock transformation and hydrocarbon generation whereas large-scale uplift and erosion during Alpine orogeny has significant impact on migration and accumulation. Visible migration observed along faults, which reactivated during Austrian unconformity. Peak hydrocarbon expulsion reached during Oligocene for both the Tanezzuft and the Aouinet Ouenine source rocks. Based on modeling results, capillary entry pressure driven downward expulsion of hydrocarbons from the lower Silurian Tanezzuft formation to the underlying Bir Tlacsin formation observed during middle Cretaceous. Kinetic modeling has helped to model hydrocarbon composition and distribution of generated hydrocarbons from both the source rocks. Application of source to reservoir tracking technology suggest some accumulations at shallow stratigraphic level has received hydrocarbons from both the Tanezzuft and Aouinet Ouenine source rocks, implying charge mixing. Five petroleum systems identified based on source to reservoir correlation technology in Petromod*. This Study builds upon the original work of Underdown and Redfern, 2008 and offers new insights and interpretation of the data.

Nutrient delivery to Lake Winnipeg from the Red-Assiniboine River Basin – A binational application of the SPARROW model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benoy, Glenn A.; Jenkinson, R. Wayne; Robertson, Dale M.; Saad, David A.

2016-01-01

Excessive phosphorus (TP) and nitrogen (TN) inputs from the Red–Assiniboine River Basin (RARB) have been linked to eutrophication of Lake Winnipeg; therefore, it is important for the management of water resources to understand where and from what sources these nutrients originate. The RARB straddles the Canada–United States border and includes portions of two provinces and three states. This study represents the first binationally focused application of SPAtially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models to estimate loads and sources of TP and TN by jurisdiction and basin at multiple spatial scales. Major hurdles overcome to develop these models included: (1) harmonization of geospatial data sets, particularly construction of a contiguous stream network; and (2) use of novel calibration steps to accommodate limitations in spatial variability across the model extent and in the number of calibration sites. Using nutrient inputs for a 2002 base year, a RARB TP SPARROW model was calibrated that included inputs from agriculture, forests and wetlands, wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and stream channels, and a TN model was calibrated that included inputs from agriculture, WWTPs and atmospheric deposition. At the RARB outlet, downstream from Winnipeg, Manitoba, the majority of the delivered TP and TN came from the Red River Basin (90%), followed by the Upper Assiniboine River and Souris River basins. Agriculture was the single most important TP and TN source for each major basin, province and state. In general, stream channels (historically deposited nutrients and from bank erosion) were the second most important source of TP. Performance metrics for the RARB SPARROW model are similarly robust compared to other, larger US SPARROW models making it a potentially useful tool to address questions of where nutrients originate and their relative contributions to loads delivered to Lake Winnipeg.

The sensitivity to land use and climate variations in the whitewater river basin, kansas, USA: Closing the water budget using groundwater models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beeson, P.; Duffy, C.; Springer, E.

2003-04-01

A water budget was developed using groundwater models to assess the impact of land use and climate variability on the Whitewater River Basin located in southeastern Kansas within the ARM-SGP as part of the DOE Water Cycle Pilot Study. The Whitewater River Basin has an area of 1,100 km2, an elevation range of 380 - 470 m above mean sea level, and an average annual precipitation of 858 mm. Time series and geospatial analysis are used to identify significant spatial structure and dominant temporal modes in the watershed runoff and groundwater response. Space-time analyses confirmed the hydrogeologic conceptual model developed from the hydrostratigraphic information provided by existing geologic studies and over 2,000 wells located in the area. The groundwater-surface water interactions are identified by time series analysis of stream discharge, precipitation, temperature, and water levels in wells. Singular spectrum analysis suggests a two layer leaky perched system with strong influences of daily, monthly, seasonal, and interannual oscillations. The geospatial analysis identifies the important length scales and the time series analysis the corresponding time scales, which must be incorporated in the model. The fine scale layering, which creates the perched leaky top layer, was represented by using an anisotropy ratio. This ratio was determined from select well data to be 100 (Kh/Kv), by calculating the vertical conductivity from harmonic mean and horizontal conductivity from arithmetic mean. MODFLOW is used to assess the importance of groundwater when attempting to close the water budget. The R-squared value between MODFLOW predicted and observed head values for the watershed was 0.85 indicating a good fit. Mean recharge was estimated to be approximately 17 percent of total annual precipitation. The approach presented here is an initial attempt to examine the importance of groundwater in the water budget of a relatively small river basin.

Hydrological modeling of upper Indus Basin and assessment of deltaic ecology

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Managing water resources is mostly required at watershed scale where the complex hydrology processes and interactions linking land surface, climatic factors and human activities can be studied. Geographical Information System based watershed model; Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is applied f...

Can longer forest harvest intervals increase summer streamflow for salmon recovery?

EPA Science Inventory

The Mashel Streamflow Modeling Project in the Mashel River Basin, Washington, is using a watershed-scale ecohydrological model to assess whether longer forest harvest intervals can remediate summer low flow conditions that have contributed to sharply reduced runs of spawning Chin...

Regional groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin in support of Great Lakes Basin water availability and use studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feinstein, D.T.; Hunt, R.J.; Reeves, H.W.

2010-01-01

A regional groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin and surrounding areas has been developed in support of the Great Lakes Basin Pilot project under the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Availability and Use Program. The transient 2-million-cell model incorporates multiple aquifers and pumping centers that create water-level drawdown that extends into deep saline waters. The 20-layer model simulates the exchange between a dense surface-water network and heterogeneous glacial deposits overlying stratified bedrock of the Wisconsin/Kankakee Arches and Michigan Basin in the Lower and Upper Peninsulas of Michigan; eastern Wisconsin; northern Indiana; and northeastern Illinois. The model is used to quantify changes in the groundwater system in response to pumping and variations in recharge from 1864 to 2005. Model results quantify the sources of water to major pumping centers, illustrate the dynamics of the groundwater system, and yield measures of water availability useful for water-resources management in the region. This report is a complete description of the methods and datasets used to develop the regional model, the underlying conceptual model, and model inputs, including specified values of material properties and the assignment of external and internal boundary conditions. The report also documents the application of the SEAWAT-2000 program for variable-density flow; it details the approach, advanced methods, and results associated with calibration through nonlinear regression using the PEST program; presents the water-level, drawdown, and groundwater flows for various geographic subregions and aquifer systems; and provides analyses of the effects of pumping from shallow and deep wells on sources of water to wells, the migration of groundwater divides, and direct and indirect groundwater discharge to Lake Michigan. The report considers the role of unconfined conditions at the regional scale as well as the influence of salinity on groundwater flow. Lastly, it describes several categories of limitations and discusses ways of extending the regional model to address issues at the local scale. Results of the simulations portray a regional groundwater-flow system that, over time, has largely maintained its natural predevelopment configuration but that locally has been strongly affected by well withdrawals. The quantity of rainfall in the Lake Michigan Basin and adjacent areas supports a dense surface-water network and recharge rates consistent with generally shallow water tables and predominantly shallow groundwater flow. At the regional scale, pumping has not caused major modifications of the shallow flow system, but it has resulted in decreases in base flow to streams and in direct discharge to Lake Michigan (about 2 percent of the groundwater discharged and about 0.5 cubic foot per second per mile of shoreline). On the other hand, well withdrawals have caused major reversals in regional flow patterns around pumping centers in deep, confined aquifers - most noticeably in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system on the west side of Lake Michigan near the cities of Green Bay and Milwaukee in eastern Wisconsin, and around Chicago in northeastern Illinois, as well as in some shallow bedrock aquifers (for example, in the Marshall aquifer near Lansing, Mich.). The reversals in flow have been accompanied by large drawdowns with consequent local decrease in storage. On the west side of Lake Michigan, groundwater withdrawals have caused appreciable migration of the deep groundwater divides. Before the advent of pumping, the deep Lake Michigan groundwater-basin boundaries extended west of the Lake Michigan surface-water basin boundary, in some places by tens of miles. Over time, the pumping centers have replaced Lake Michigan as the regional sink for the deep flow system. The regional model is intended to support the framework pilot study of water availability and use for the Great Lakes Basin (Reeves, in press).

3D thermal history and maturity modelling of the Levant Basin and Margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daher, Samer Bou; Ducros, Mathieu; Michel, Pauline; Nader, Fadi H.; Littke, Ralf

2015-04-01

The gas discoveries recorded in the Levant Basin in the last decade have redirected the industrial and academic communities' interest to this frontier basin and its surroundings. The reported gas in Miocene reservoirs has been assumed to be derived from biogenic sources, although little data has been published so far. The thickness of the sedimentary column and the presence of direct hydrocarbon indicators (DHI) observed in the seismic data suggest the presence of promising prospective thermogenic petroleum systems in deeper intervals in the Levant Basin and along its Margin. In this study we present a large scale 3D thermal history and maturity model of the Levant Basin and Margin, integrating all available calibration data, source rock information collected from onshore Lebanon, and published data. In the first part we will present the main input and assumptions that were made in terms of thicknesses, lithologies, and boundary conditions. In the second part we will discuss the analysed source rocks, their petroleum generation potential and their kinetics. In the third part we will present modelling results including depth maps for key isotherms in addition to transformation ratio and vitrinite reflectance maps for proven and speculative source rocks at different time steps. This will provide a comprehensive assessment of the potential thermogenic petroleum systems in the study area, and allow us to illustrate and discuss the differences between the basinal, marginal, and onshore part of the study area as well as the potential of the northern vis a vis the southern offshore Levant Basin. This model will also allow us to analyse the sensitivity of the system to the various poorly constrained parameters in frontier basins (e.g. crustal thickness, rifting phases, lithologies) and thus identify the most critical data to be collected for future exploration and de-risking strategies.

Mapping Water Vulnerability of the Yangtze River Basin: 1994-2013.

PubMed

Sun, Fengyun; Kuang, Wenhui; Xiang, Weining; Che, Yue

2016-11-01

A holistic understanding of the magnitude and long-term trend of water vulnerability is essential for making management decisions in a given river basin. Existing procedures to assess the spatiotemporal dynamic of water vulnerability in complex mega-scale river basins are inadequate; a new method named ensemble hydrologic assessment was proposed in this study, which allows collection of data and knowledge about many aspects of water resources to be synthesized in a useful way for vulnerability assessment. The objective of this study is to illustrate the practical utility of such an integrated approach in examining water vulnerability in the Yangtze River Basin. Overall, the results demonstrated that the ensemble hydrologic assessment model could largely explain the spatiotemporal evolution of water vulnerability. This paper improves understanding of the status and trends of water resources in the Yangtze River Basin.

Using 10Be to quantify rates of landscape change in 'dead' orogens - millennial scale rates of bedrock and basin-scale erosion in the southern and central Appalachian Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bierman, P. R.; Reusser, L.; Portenga, E.

2011-12-01

The Appalachian Mountain chain stretches north-south along the eastern margin of North America, in places rising a thousand meters and more above the adjacent piedmont. Here, Davis built his paradigm of landscape evolution, seeing landscape rejuvenation and dissected peneplains, a transient landscape. Hack saw the Appalachians as a dynamic system where topography was adjusted to rock strength, a steady-state landscape. Neither had quantitative data by which to test their theories. Today, we approach landscapes of the Appalachian Mountains quite differently. Over the past decade, we and others have measured in situ-produced 10Be in more than 300 samples of quartz isolated from Appalachian drainage basin sediments and in more than 100 samples from exposed Appalachian bedrock outcrops, most of which are on ridgelines. Samples have been collected from the Susquehanna, Potomac, and Shenandoah drainage basins as well as from the area around the Great Smoky Mountain National Park and the Blue Ridge escarpment, and from rivers draining from the Appalachians across the southeastern United States Piedmont. Most areas of the Appalachian Mountains are eroding only slowly; the average for all drainage basin samples analyzed to date is ~18 m/My (n=328). The highest basin-scale erosion rates, 25-70 m/My are found in the Appalachian Plateau and in the Great Smoky Mountains. Lower rates, on the order on 10-20 m/My, characterize the Shenandoah, Potomac, and Blue Ridge escarpment areas. There is a significant, positive relationship between basin-scale erosion rates and average basin slope. Steeper basins are in general eroding more rapidly than less steep basins. On the whole, the erosion rates of bedrock outcrops are either lower than or similar to those measured at a basin scale. The average erosion rate for samples of outcropping bedrock collected from the Appalachians is ~15 m/My (n=101). In the Potomac River Basin and the Great Smoky Mountains, bedrock and basin-scale erosion rates are similar implying long-term steady erosion consistent with dynamic steady state as advocated by Hack. However, in the Susquehanna drainage, basin scale erosion rates are significantly higher than those measured from outcrops suggesting that over time, relief is increasing. The Susquehanna River basin appears to be responding to a transient perturbation, ala Davis.

Impact of river basin management on coastal water quality and ecosystem services: A southern Baltic estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schernewski, Gerald; Hürdler, Jens; Neumann, Thomas; Stybel, Nardine; Venohr, Markus

2010-05-01

Eutrophication management is still a major challenge in the Baltic Sea region. Estuaries or coastal waters linked to large rivers cannot be managed independently. Nutrient loads into these coastal ecosystems depend on processes, utilisation, structure and management in the river basin. In practise this means that we need a large scale approach and integrated models and tools to analyse, assess and evaluate the effects of nutrient loads on coastal water quality as well as the efficiency of river basin management measures on surface waters and especially lagoons and estuaries. The Odra river basin, the Szczecin Lagoon and its coastal waters cover an area of about 150,000 km² and are an eutrophication hot-spot in the Baltic region. To be able to carry out large scale, spatially integrative analyses, we linked the river basin nutrient flux model MONERIS to the coastal 3D-hydrodynamic and ecosystem model ERGOM. Objectives were a) to analyse the eutrophication history in the river basin and the resulting functional changes in the coastal waters between early 1960's and today and b) to analyse the effects of an optimal nitrogen and phosphorus management scenario in the Oder/Odra river basin on coastal water quality. The models show that an optimal river basin management with reduced nutrient loads (e.g. N-load reduction of 35 %) would have positive effects on coastal water quality and algae biomass. The availability of nutrients, N/P ratios and processes like denitrification and nitrogen-fixation would show spatial and temporal changes. It would have positive consequences for ecosystems functions, like the nutrient retention capacity, as well. However, this optimal scenario is by far not sufficient to ensure a good coastal water quality according to the European Water Framework Directive. A "good" water quality in the river will not be sufficient to ensure a "good" water quality in the coastal waters. Further, nitrogen load reductions bear the risk of increased potentially toxic, blue-green algae blooms. The presentation will summarize recent results (Behrendt et al. 2009, Schernewski et al. 2009, Schernewski et al. in press, Schernewski et al. submitted) and give an overview how Climate Change and socio-economic transformation processes in the river basin will effect coastal water quality during the next decades. The opportunities and threats of a changing lagoon ecosystem for tourism and fisheries, the major economic activities, will be shown.

Modeling regional variation in riverine fish biodiversity in the Arkansas-White-Red River basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schweizer, Peter E; Jager, Yetta

The patterns of biodiversity in freshwater systems are shaped by biogeography, environmental gradients, and human-induced factors. In this study, we developed empirical models to explain fish species richness in subbasins of the Arkansas White Red River basin as a function of discharge, elevation, climate, land cover, water quality, dams, and longitudinal position. We used information-theoretic criteria to compare generalized linear mixed models and identified well-supported models. Subbasin attributes that were retained as predictors included discharge, elevation, number of downstream dams, percent forest, percent shrubland, nitrate, total phosphorus, and sediment. The random component of our models, which assumed a negative binomialmore » distribution, included spatial correlation within larger river basins and overdispersed residual variance. This study differs from previous biodiversity modeling efforts in several ways. First, obtaining likelihoods for negative binomial mixed models, and thereby avoiding reliance on quasi-likelihoods, has only recently become practical. We found the ranking of models based on these likelihood estimates to be more believable than that produced using quasi-likelihoods. Second, because we had access to a regional-scale watershed model for this river basin, we were able to include model-estimated water quality attributes as predictors. Thus, the resulting models have potential value as tools with which to evaluate the benefits of water quality improvements to fish.« less

A multi-scaled approach to evaluating the fish assemblage structure within southern Appalachian streams USA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirsch, Joseph; Peterson, James T.

2014-01-01

There is considerable uncertainty about the relative roles of stream habitat and landscape characteristics in structuring stream-fish assemblages. We evaluated the relative importance of environmental characteristics on fish occupancy at the local and landscape scales within the upper Little Tennessee River basin of Georgia and North Carolina. Fishes were sampled using a quadrat sample design at 525 channel units within 48 study reaches during two consecutive years. We evaluated species–habitat relationships (local and landscape factors) by developing hierarchical, multispecies occupancy models. Modeling results suggested that fish occupancy within the Little Tennessee River basin was primarily influenced by stream topology and topography, urban land coverage, and channel unit types. Landscape scale factors (e.g., urban land coverage and elevation) largely controlled the fish assemblage structure at a stream-reach level, and local-scale factors (i.e., channel unit types) influenced fish distribution within stream reaches. Our study demonstrates the utility of a multi-scaled approach and the need to account for hierarchy and the interscale interactions of factors influencing assemblage structure prior to monitoring fish assemblages, developing biological management plans, or allocating management resources throughout a stream system.

Streamflow changes in the Sierra Nevada, California, simulated using a statistically downscaled general circulation model scenario of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilby, Robert L.; Dettinger, Michael D.

2000-01-01

Simulations of future climate using general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases may have significant consequences for the global climate. Of less certainty is the extent to which regional scale (i.e., sub-GCM grid) environmental processes will be affected. In this chapter, a range of downscaling techniques are critiqued. Then a relatively simple (yet robust) statistical downscaling technique and its use in the modelling of future runoff scenarios for three river basins in the Sierra Nevada, California, is described. This region was selected because GCM experiments driven by combined greenhouse-gas and sulphate-aerosol forcings consistently show major changes in the hydro-climate of the southwest United States by the end of the 21st century. The regression-based downscaling method was used to simulate daily rainfall and temperature series for streamflow modelling in three Californian river basins under current-and future-climate conditions. The downscaling involved just three predictor variables (specific humidity, zonal velocity component of airflow, and 500 hPa geopotential heights) supplied by the U.K. Meteorological Office couple ocean-atmosphere model (HadCM2) for the grid point nearest the target basins. When evaluated using independent data, the model showed reasonable skill at reproducing observed area-average precipitation, temperature, and concomitant streamflow variations. Overall, the downscaled data resulted in slight underestimates of mean annual streamflow due to underestimates of precipitation in spring and positive temperature biases in winter. Differences in the skill of simulated streamflows amongst the three basins were attributed to the smoothing effects of snowpack on streamflow responses to climate forcing. The Merced and American River basins drain the western, windward slope of the Sierra Nevada and are snowmelt dominated, whereas the Carson River drains the eastern, leeward slope and is a mix of rainfall runoff and snowmelt runoff. Simulated streamflow in the American River responds rapidly and sensitively to daily-scale temperature and precipitation fluctuations and errors; in the Merced and Carson Rivers, the response to the same short-term influences is much less. Consequently, the skill of simulated flows was significantly lower in the American River model than in the Carson and Merced. The physiography of the three basins also accounts for differences in their sensitivities to future climate change. Increases in winter precipitation exceeding +100% coupled with mean temperature rises greater than +2°C result in increased winter streamflows in all three basins. In the Merced and Carson basins, these streamflow increases reflect large changes in winter snowpack, whereas the streamflow changes in the lower elevation American basin are driven primarily by rainfall runoff. Furthermore, reductions in winter snowpack in the American River basin, owing to less precipitation falling as snow and earlier melting of snow at middle elevations, lead to less spring and summer streamflow. Taken collectively, the downscaling results suggest significant changes to both the timing and magnitude of streamflows in the Sierra Nevada by the end of the 21st Century. In the higher elevation basins, the HadCM2 scenario implies more annual streamflow and more streamflow during the spring and summer months that are critical for water-resources management in California. Depending on the relative significance of rainfall runoff and snowmelt, each basin responds in its own way to regional climate forcing. Generally, then, climate scenarios need to be specified — by whatever means — with sufficient temporal and spatial resolution to capture subtle orographic influences if projections of climate-change responses are to be useful and reproducible.

Linking Governance to Sustainable Management Outcomes: Applying Dynamic Indicator Profiles to River Basin Organization Case Studies around the World.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Y.; Bouckaert, F. W.

2017-12-01

Institutional best practice for integrated river basin management advocates the river basin organisation (RBO) model as pivotal to achieve sustainable management outcomes and stakeholder engagement. The model has been widely practiced in transboundary settings and is increasingly adopted at national scales, though its effectiveness remains poorly studied. A meta-analysis of four river basins has been conducted to assess governance models and linking it to evaluation of biophysical management outcomes. The analysis is based on a Theory of Change framework, and includes functional dynamic governance indicator profiles, coupled to sustainable ecosystem management outcome profiles. The governance and outcome profiles, informed by context specific indicators, demand that targets for setting objectives are required in multiple dimensions, and trajectory outlines are a useful tool to track progress along the journey mapped out by the Theory of Change framework. Priorities, trade-offs and objectives vary in each basin, but the diagnostics tool allows comparison between basins in their capacity to reach targets through successive evaluations. The distance between capacity and target scores determines how program planning should be prioritized and resources allocated for implementation; this is a dynamic process requiring regular evaluations and adaptive management. The findings of this study provide a conceptual framework for combining dimensions of integrated water management principles that bridge tensions between (i) stakeholder engagement and participatory management (bottom-up approach) using localized knowledge and (ii) decision-making, control-and-command, system-scale, accountable and equitable management (top-down approach).The notion of adaptive management is broadened to include whole-of-program learnings, rather than single hypothesis based learning adjustments. This triple loop learning combines exploitative methods refinement with explorative evaluation of underlying paradigms. The significance of these findings suggests that in order to achieve effective management outcomes, a framework is required that combines governance performance with evaluations of bio-physical outcomes.

Estimating Vegetation Primary Production in the Heihe River Basin of China with Multi-Source and Multi-Scale Data.

PubMed

Cui, Tianxiang; Wang, Yujie; Sun, Rui; Qiao, Chen; Fan, Wenjie; Jiang, Guoqing; Hao, Lvyuan; Zhang, Lei

2016-01-01

Estimating gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP) are significant important in studying carbon cycles. Using models driven by multi-source and multi-scale data is a promising approach to estimate GPP and NPP at regional and global scales. With a focus on data that are openly accessible, this paper presents a GPP and NPP model driven by remotely sensed data and meteorological data with spatial resolutions varying from 30 m to 0.25 degree and temporal resolutions ranging from 3 hours to 1 month, by integrating remote sensing techniques and eco-physiological process theories. Our model is also designed as part of the Multi-source data Synergized Quantitative (MuSyQ) Remote Sensing Production System. In the presented MuSyQ-NPP algorithm, daily GPP for a 10-day period was calculated as a product of incident photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and its fraction absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) using a light use efficiency (LUE) model. The autotrophic respiration (Ra) was determined using eco-physiological process theories and the daily NPP was obtained as the balance between GPP and Ra. To test its feasibility at regional scales, our model was performed in an arid and semi-arid region of Heihe River Basin, China to generate daily GPP and NPP during the growing season of 2012. The results indicated that both GPP and NPP exhibit clear spatial and temporal patterns in their distribution over Heihe River Basin during the growing season due to the temperature, water and solar influx conditions. After validated against ground-based measurements, MODIS GPP product (MOD17A2H) and results reported in recent literature, we found the MuSyQ-NPP algorithm could yield an RMSE of 2.973 gC m(-2) d(-1) and an R of 0.842 when compared with ground-based GPP while an RMSE of 8.010 gC m(-2) d(-1) and an R of 0.682 can be achieved for MODIS GPP, the estimated NPP values were also well within the range of previous literature, which proved the reliability of our modelling results. This research suggested that the utilization of multi-source data with various scales would help to the establishment of an appropriate model for calculating GPP and NPP at regional scales with relatively high spatial and temporal resolution.

Estimating Vegetation Primary Production in the Heihe River Basin of China with Multi-Source and Multi-Scale Data

PubMed Central

Cui, Tianxiang; Wang, Yujie; Sun, Rui; Qiao, Chen; Fan, Wenjie; Jiang, Guoqing; Hao, Lvyuan; Zhang, Lei

2016-01-01

Estimating gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP) are significant important in studying carbon cycles. Using models driven by multi-source and multi-scale data is a promising approach to estimate GPP and NPP at regional and global scales. With a focus on data that are openly accessible, this paper presents a GPP and NPP model driven by remotely sensed data and meteorological data with spatial resolutions varying from 30 m to 0.25 degree and temporal resolutions ranging from 3 hours to 1 month, by integrating remote sensing techniques and eco-physiological process theories. Our model is also designed as part of the Multi-source data Synergized Quantitative (MuSyQ) Remote Sensing Production System. In the presented MuSyQ-NPP algorithm, daily GPP for a 10-day period was calculated as a product of incident photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and its fraction absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) using a light use efficiency (LUE) model. The autotrophic respiration (Ra) was determined using eco-physiological process theories and the daily NPP was obtained as the balance between GPP and Ra. To test its feasibility at regional scales, our model was performed in an arid and semi-arid region of Heihe River Basin, China to generate daily GPP and NPP during the growing season of 2012. The results indicated that both GPP and NPP exhibit clear spatial and temporal patterns in their distribution over Heihe River Basin during the growing season due to the temperature, water and solar influx conditions. After validated against ground-based measurements, MODIS GPP product (MOD17A2H) and results reported in recent literature, we found the MuSyQ-NPP algorithm could yield an RMSE of 2.973 gC m-2 d-1 and an R of 0.842 when compared with ground-based GPP while an RMSE of 8.010 gC m-2 d-1 and an R of 0.682 can be achieved for MODIS GPP, the estimated NPP values were also well within the range of previous literature, which proved the reliability of our modelling results. This research suggested that the utilization of multi-source data with various scales would help to the establishment of an appropriate model for calculating GPP and NPP at regional scales with relatively high spatial and temporal resolution. PMID:27088356

Conceptual ecological models to guide integrated landscape monitoring of the Great Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, D.M.; Finn, S.P.; Woodward, Andrea; Torregrosa, Alicia; Miller, M.E.; Bedford, D.R.; Brasher, A.M.

2010-01-01

The Great Basin Integrated Landscape Monitoring Pilot Project was developed in response to the need for a monitoring and predictive capability that addresses changes in broad landscapes and waterscapes. Human communities and needs are nested within landscapes formed by interactions among the hydrosphere, geosphere, and biosphere. Understanding the complex processes that shape landscapes and deriving ways to manage them sustainably while meeting human needs require sophisticated modeling and monitoring. This document summarizes current understanding of ecosystem structure and function for many of the ecosystems within the Great Basin using conceptual models. The conceptual ecosystem models identify key ecological components and processes, identify external drivers, develop a hierarchical set of models that address both site and landscape attributes, inform regional monitoring strategy, and identify critical gaps in our knowledge of ecosystem function. The report also illustrates an approach for temporal and spatial scaling from site-specific models to landscape models and for understanding cumulative effects. Eventually, conceptual models can provide a structure for designing monitoring programs, interpreting monitoring and other data, and assessing the accuracy of our understanding of ecosystem functions and processes.

Co-variability of smoke and fire in the Amazon basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Amit Kumar; Lehahn, Yoav; Rudich, Yinon; Koren, Ilan

2015-05-01

The Amazon basin is a hot spot of anthropogenically-driven biomass burning, accounting for approximately 15% of total global fire emissions. It is essential to accurately measure these fires for robust regional and global modeling of key environmental processes. Here we have explored the link between spatio-temporal variability patterns in the Amazon basin's fires and the resulting smoke loading using 11 years (2002-2012) of data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) observations. Focusing on the peak burning season (July-October), our analysis shows strong inter-annual correlation between aerosol optical depth (AOD) and two MODIS fire products: fire radiative power (FRP) and fire pixel counts (FC). Among these two fire products, the FC better indicates the amount of smoke in the basin, as represented in remotely sensed AOD data. This fire product is significantly correlated both with regional AOD retrievals from MODIS and with point AOD measurements from the AERONET stations, pointing to spatial homogenization of the smoke over the basin on a seasonal time scale. However, MODIS AODs are found better than AERONET AODs observation for linking between smoke and fire. Furthermore, MODIS AOD measurements are strongly correlated with number of fires ∼10-20 to the east, most likely due to westward advection of smoke by the wind. These results can be rationalized by the regional topography and the wind regimes. Our analysis can improve data assimilation of satellite and ground-based observations into regional and global model studies, thus improving the assessment of the environmental and climatic impacts of frequency and distribution variability of the Amazon basin's fires. We also provide the optimal spatial and temporal scales for ground-based observations, which could be used for such applications.

New Views of the Moon's Spin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keane, J. T.; Johnson, B. C.; Matsuyama, I.; Siegler, M. A.

2018-04-01

New geophysical data and numerical models reveal that basin-scale impacts routinely caused the Moon to tumble (non principal axis rotation) early in its history — plausibly driving magnetic fields, erasing primordial volatiles, and more.

Ejecta from large craters on the moon - Comments on the geometric model of McGetchin et al

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pike, R. J.

1974-01-01

Amendments to a quantitative scheme developed by T. R. McGetchin et al. (1973) for predicting the distribution of ejecta from lunar basins yield substantially thicker estimates of ejecta, deposited at the basin rim-crest and at varying ranges beyond, than does the original model. Estimates of the total volume of material ejected from a basin, illustrated by Imbrium, also are much greater. Because many uncertainties affect any geometric model developed primarily from terrestrial analogs of lunar craters, predictions of ejecta thickness and volume on the moon may range within at least an order of magnitude. These problems are exemplified by the variability of T, thickness of ejecta at the rim-crest of terrestrial experimental craters. The proportion of T to crater rim-height depends critically upon scaled depth-of-burst and whether the explosive is nuclear or chemical.

Multiple-basin energy landscapes for large-amplitude conformational motions of proteins: Structure-based molecular dynamics simulations

PubMed Central

Okazaki, Kei-ichi; Koga, Nobuyasu; Takada, Shoji; Onuchic, Jose N.; Wolynes, Peter G.

2006-01-01

Biomolecules often undergo large-amplitude motions when they bind or release other molecules. Unlike macroscopic machines, these biomolecular machines can partially disassemble (unfold) and then reassemble (fold) during such transitions. Here we put forward a minimal structure-based model, the “multiple-basin model,” that can directly be used for molecular dynamics simulation of even very large biomolecular systems so long as the endpoints of the conformational change are known. We investigate the model by simulating large-scale motions of four proteins: glutamine-binding protein, S100A6, dihydrofolate reductase, and HIV-1 protease. The mechanisms of conformational transition depend on the protein basin topologies and change with temperature near the folding transition. The conformational transition rate varies linearly with driving force over a fairly large range. This linearity appears to be a consequence of partial unfolding during the conformational transition. PMID:16877541

Development and testing of a physically based model of streambank erosion for coupling with a basin-scale hydrologic model SWAT

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A comprehensive stream bank erosion model based on excess shear stress has been developed and incorporated in the hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). It takes into account processes such as weathering, vegetative cover, and channel meanders to adjust critical and effective str...

SWAT Check: A screening tool to assist users in the identification of potential model application problems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a basin scale hydrologic model developed by the US Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service. SWAT's broad applicability, user friendly model interfaces, and automatic calibration software have led to a rapid increase in the number of new u...

The Importance of Submesoscale Versus Basin-scale Processes in Driving the Subpolar Spring Phytoplankton Bloom.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brody, S.; Mahadevan, A.; Lozier, M. S.

2014-12-01

The subpolar spring phytoplankton bloom has important consequences for marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle. The timing of the bloom has been conceived of as a basin-scale event: as the ocean warms, the seasonal mixed layer shoals, restricting phytoplankton to shallower depths and increasing available light to a level at which the bloom can begin. Recent studies have highlighted the importance of localized phenomena in driving the bloom initiation. Specifically, the role of lateral density gradients in generating <10km instabilities in the upper ocean, which then stratify the mixed layer before surface heating begins, has been explored with a process study model and fine-scale observations from a field program to study the North Atlantic spring bloom [1]. However, an alternative hypothesis has recently been validated at both the small scale, using the same observational data [2], and at the basin scale, using remote sensing data [3]. According to this hypothesis, blooms begin when surface heat fluxes weaken, mixing shifts from primarily convectively-driven to primarily wind-driven, and the depth of active mixing in the upper ocean consequently decreases. Here, we compare the importance of the barriers to mixing presented by submesoscale instabilities with the decreases in mixing depth caused by changes in surface forcing in driving the initiation of the spring bloom prior to the onset of surface heating. To make this comparison, we use a Lagrangian framework to track the light history of particles seeded in a high-resolution numerical model that we initialize with various surface forcing scenarios, and with and without lateral density gradients. Because the model parameterizes convection with convective adjustment, we present two methodologies to account for turbulent mixing processes that utilize observations of turbulent vertical mixing from a Lagrangian float. We present conclusions on whether and how submesoscale processes affect bloom initiation under varied surface forcing conditions in the context of whether the timing of the subpolar phytoplankton bloom can be thought of as a basin-scale or submesoscale phenomenon. [1] A. Mahadevan et al.. Science 337, 6090 (2012). [2] Brody, S.R. and Lozier, M.S. (under review, ICES J. Mar. Sci) [3] Brody, S.R. and Lozier, M.S. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, (2014).

The Influence of the Green River Lake System on the Local Climate During the Early Eocene Period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elguindi, N.; Thrasher, B.; Sloan, L. C.

2006-12-01

Several modeling efforts have attempted to reproduce the climate of the early Eocene North America. However when compared to proxy data, General Circulation Models (GCMs) tend to produce a large-scale cold-bias. Although higher resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that are able to resolve many of the sub-GCM scale forcings improve this cold bias, RCMs are still unable to reproduce the warm climate of the Eocene. From geologic data, we know that the greater Green River and the Uinta basins were intermontane basins with a large lake system during portions of the Eocene. We speculate that the lack of presence of these lakes in previous modeling studies may explain part of the persistent cold-bias of GCMs and RCMs. In this study, we utilize a regional climate model coupled with a 1D-lake model in an attempt to reduce the uncertainties and biases associated with climate simulations over Eocene western North American. Specifically, we include the Green River Lake system in our RCM simulation and compare climates with and without lakes to proxy data.

Improving the Inventory of Large Lunar Basins: Using LOLA Data to Test Previous Candidates and Search for New Ones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frey, H. V.; Meyer, H. M.; Romine, G. C.

2012-01-01

Topography and crustal thickness data from LOLA altimetry were used to test the validity of 98 candidate large lunar basins derived from photogeologic and earlier topographic and crustal thickness data, and to search for possible new candidates. We eliminate 23 previous candidates but find good evidence for 20 new candidates. The number of basins greater than 300 km diameter on the Moon is almost certainly a factor 2 (maybe 3?) larger than the number of named features having basin-like topography. Unified Lunar Control Net 2005 data [1] and model crustal thickness data [2] were previously used to search for possible previously unrecognized large lunar impact basins [3,4]. An inventory of 98 candidate topographic basins greater than 300 km in diameter was found [5]. This includes 33 named features (only those having basin-like topography) out of the 45 listed by Wilhelms [6], 38 additional Quasi-Circular Depressions (QCDs) found in the ULCN2005 topography, and 27 Circular Thin Areas (CTAs) found in model crustal thickness data [2]. Most named features and additional QCDs have strong CTA signatures, but there may be a class of CTAs that are not easily recognized in the old and low resolution ULCN2005 topography. Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) data have recently become publically available. We used these data to (a) refine the center and ring diameters of known basins, (b) test the viability of the candidate basins previously found (as described above), and (c) search for additional candidate basins not revealed by the earlier lower resolution data. We used the LOLA topography directly but also a recent new model crustal thickness data that includes Kaguya gravity data [7]. We repeated a Topographic Expression (TE) and a Crustal Thickness Expression (CTE) scoring exercise originally done with the basins found in ULCN and earlier model crustal thickness data [5]. Each candidate was scored on a scale from 0 (no topographic basin or circular thin area signature) to 5 (strong circular low or strong circular thin area signature). These were combined into a total score used to rank the probability for each candidate basin. We used the same GRIDVIEW software to stretch, contour and profile the LOLA and new crustal thickness data as was done with the ULCN2005 and older model crustal thickness data.

Predictive Modeling and Mapping of Fish Distributions in Small Streams of the Canadian Rocky Mountain Foothills

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCleary, R. J.; Hassan, M. A.

2006-12-01

An automated procedure was developed to model spatial fish distributions within small streams in the Foothills of Alberta. Native fish populations and their habitats are susceptible to impacts arising from both industrial forestry and rapid development of petroleum resources in the region. Knowledge of fish distributions and the effects of industrial activities on their habitats is required to help conserve native fish populations. Resource selection function (RSF) models were used to explain presence/absence of fish in small streams. Target species were bull trout, rainbow trout and non-native brook trout. Using GIS, the drainage network was divided into reaches with uniform slope and drainage area and then polygons for each reach were created. Predictor variables described stream size, stream energy, climate and land-use. We identified a set of candidate models and selected the best model using a standard Akaike Information Criteria approach. The best models were validated with two external data sets. Drainage area and basin slope parameters were included in all best models. This finding emphasizes the importance of controlling for the energy dimension at the basin scale in investigations into the effects of land-use on aquatic resources in this transitional landscape between the mountains and plains. The best model for bull trout indicated a relation between the presence of artificial migration barriers in downstream areas and the extirpation of the species from headwater reaches. We produced reach-scale maps by species and summarized this information within all small catchments across the 12,000 km2 study area. These maps had included three categories based on predicted probability of capture for individual reaches. The high probability category had a 78 percent accuracy for correctly predicting both fish present and fish not-present reaches. Basin scale maps highlight specific watersheds likely to support both native bull trout and invasive brook trout, while reach-scale maps indicate specific reaches where interactions between these two species are likely to occur. With regional calibration, this automated modeling and mapping procedure could apply in headwater catchments throughout the Rocky Mountain Foothills and other areas where sporadic waterfalls or other natural migration barriers are not an important feature limiting fish distribution.

Sharing the cost of river basin adaptation portfolios to climate change: Insights from social justice and cooperative game theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girard, Corentin; Rinaudo, Jean-Daniel; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2016-10-01

The adaptation of water resource systems to the potential impacts of climate change requires mixed portfolios of supply and demand adaptation measures. The issue is not only to select efficient, robust, and flexible adaptation portfolios but also to find equitable strategies of cost allocation among the stakeholders. Our work addresses such cost allocation problems by applying two different theoretical approaches: social justice and cooperative game theory in a real case study. First of all, a cost-effective portfolio of adaptation measures at the basin scale is selected using a least-cost optimization model. Cost allocation solutions are then defined based on economic rationality concepts from cooperative game theory (the Core). Second, interviews are conducted to characterize stakeholders' perceptions of social justice principles associated with the definition of alternatives cost allocation rules. The comparison of the cost allocation scenarios leads to contrasted insights in order to inform the decision-making process at the river basin scale and potentially reap the efficiency gains from cooperation in the design of river basin adaptation portfolios.

Comparison and evaluation of satellite- and reanalysis-based precipitation products for water resources management in the Brahmaputra River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleh Khan, Abu; Sohel Masud, Md.; Abdulla Hel Kafi, Md.; Sultana, Tashrifa; Lopez Lopez, Patricia

2017-04-01

The Brahmaputra River, with a transboundary basin area of approx. 554,500 km2, has its origin on the northern slope of the Himalayas in China, from where it flows through India, Bhutan and finally Bangladesh. Brahmaputra basin's climatology is heavily conditioned by precipitation during the monsoon months, concentrating about the 85 % of the rainfall in this period and originating severe and frequent floods that impact specially the Bangladeshi population in the delta region. Recent campaigns to increase the quality and to share ground-based hydro-meteorological data, in particular precipitation, within the basin have provided limited results. Global rainfall data from satellite and reanalysis may improve the temporal and spatial availability of in-situ observations for advanced water resources management. This study aims to evaluate the applicability of several global precipitation products from satellite and reanalysis in comparison with in-situ data to quantify their added value for hydrological modeling at a basin and sub-basin scale for the Brahmaputra River. Precipitation products from CMORPH, TRMM-3B42, GsMAP, WFDEI, MSWEP and various combinations with ground-based data were evaluated at basin and sub-basin level at a daily and monthly temporal resolution. The Brahmaputra was delineated into 54 sub-basins for a more detailed evaluation of the precipitation products. The data were analysed and inter-compared for the time period from 2002 to 2010. Precipitation performance assessment was conducted including several indicators, such as probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), Pearson's correlation coefficient (r), bias and root mean square error (RMSE). Preliminary results indicate high correlation and low bias and RMSE values between WFDEI, TRMM-3B42 and CMORPH precipitation and in-situ observations at a monthly time scale. Lower correlations and higher bias and RMSE values were found between GsMAP and MSWEP and ground-observed precipitation. The best performance was achieved with TRMM-3B42 precipitation. Preliminary results also show that precipitation is better captured during monsoon season rather than in dry seasons with all the analysed precipitation products. Moreover, in the comparison at a sub-basin level, precipitation estimates are more accurate in those sub-basins located in the southern part of the Brahmaputra River basin. These results identify the added value of satellite-based and reanalysis derived precipitation products for improving available information and water resources management in the Brahmaputra River basin. Keywords: precipitation, earth observations, hydrological modeling, Brahmaputra River basin.

The role of topography on catchment‐scale water residence time

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGuire, K.J.; McDonnell, Jeffery J.; Weiler, M.; Kendall, C.; McGlynn, B.L.; Welker, J.M.; Seibert, J.

2005-01-01

The age, or residence time, of water is a fundamental descriptor of catchment hydrology, revealing information about the storage, flow pathways, and source of water in a single integrated measure. While there has been tremendous recent interest in residence time estimation to characterize watersheds, there are relatively few studies that have quantified residence time at the watershed scale, and fewer still that have extended those results beyond single catchments to larger landscape scales. We examined topographic controls on residence time for seven catchments (0.085–62.4 km2) that represent diverse geologic and geomorphic conditions in the western Cascade Mountains of Oregon. Our primary objective was to determine the dominant physical controls on catchment‐scale water residence time and specifically test the hypothesis that residence time is related to the size of the basin. Residence times were estimated by simple convolution models that described the transfer of precipitation isotopic composition to the stream network. We found that base flow mean residence times for exponential distributions ranged from 0.8 to 3.3 years. Mean residence time showed no correlation to basin area (r2 < 0.01) but instead was correlated (r2 = 0.91) to catchment terrain indices representing the flow path distance and flow path gradient to the stream network. These results illustrate that landscape organization (i.e., topography) rather than basin area controls catchment‐scale transport. Results from this study may provide a framework for describing scale‐invariant transport across climatic and geologic conditions, whereby the internal form and structure of the basin defines the first‐order control on base flow residence time.

Statistical and Hydrological evaluation of precipitation forecasts from IMD MME and ECMWF numerical weather forecasts for Indian River basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohite, A. R.; Beria, H.; Behera, A. K.; Chatterjee, C.; Singh, R.

2016-12-01

Flood forecasting using hydrological models is an important and cost-effective non-structural flood management measure. For forecasting at short lead times, empirical models using real-time precipitation estimates have proven to be reliable. However, their skill depreciates with increasing lead time. Coupling a hydrologic model with real-time rainfall forecasts issued from numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems could increase the lead time substantially. In this study, we compared 1-5 days precipitation forecasts from India Meteorological Department (IMD) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) with European Center for Medium Weather forecast (ECMWF) NWP forecasts for over 86 major river basins in India. We then evaluated the hydrologic utility of these forecasts over Basantpur catchment (approx. 59,000 km2) of the Mahanadi River basin. Coupled MIKE 11 RR (NAM) and MIKE 11 hydrodynamic (HD) models were used for the development of flood forecast system (FFS). RR model was calibrated using IMD station rainfall data. Cross-sections extracted from SRTM 30 were used as input to the MIKE 11 HD model. IMD started issuing operational MME forecasts from the year 2008, and hence, both the statistical and hydrologic evaluation were carried out from 2008-2014. The performance of FFS was evaluated using both the NWP datasets separately for the year 2011, which was a large flood year in Mahanadi River basin. We will present figures and metrics for statistical (threshold based statistics, skill in terms of correlation and bias) and hydrologic (Nash Sutcliffe efficiency, mean and peak error statistics) evaluation. The statistical evaluation will be at pan-India scale for all the major river basins and the hydrologic evaluation will be for the Basantpur catchment of the Mahanadi River basin.

Basin-fill Aquifer Modeling with Terrestrial Gravity: Assessing Static Offsets in Bulk Datasets using MATLAB; Case Study of Bridgeport, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mlawsky, E. T.; Louie, J. N.; Pohll, G.; Carlson, C. W.; Blakely, R. J.

2015-12-01

Understanding the potential availability of water resources in Eastern California aquifers is of critical importance to making water management policy decisions and determining best-use practices for California, as well as for downstream use in Nevada. Hydrologic well log data can provide valuable information on aquifer capacity, but is often proprietarily inaccessible or economically unfeasible to obtain in sufficient quantity. In the case of basin-fill aquifers, it is possible to make estimates of aquifer geometry and volume using geophysical surveys of gravity, constrained by additional geophysical and geological observations. We use terrestrial gravity data to model depth-to-basement about the Bridgeport, CA basin for application in preserving the Walker Lake biome. In constructing the model, we assess several hundred gravity observations, existing and newly collected. We regard these datasets as "bulk," as the data are compiled from multiple sources. Inconsistencies among datasets can result in "static offsets," or artificial bull's-eye contours, within the gradient. Amending suspect offsets requires the attention of the modeler; picking these offsets by hand can be a time-consuming process when modeling large-scale basin features. We develop a MATLAB script for interpolating the residual Bouguer anomaly about the basin using sparse observation points, and leveling offset points with a user-defined sensitivity. The script is also capable of plotting gravity profiles between any two endpoints within the map extent. The resulting anomaly map provides an efficient means of locating and removing static offsets in the data, while also providing a fast visual representation of a bulk dataset. Additionally, we obtain gridded basin gravity models with an open-source alternative to proprietary modeling tools.

Ecologic and Morphologic Analysis of a Proposed Network of Sediment Diversions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meselhe, E. A.; Sadid, K. M.; Jung, H.; Messina, F.; Esposito, C.; Liang, M.

2017-12-01

Deltaic processes are governed by factors including the characteristics of inflowing sediment (e.g., temporal variability of the load and size class distribution), receiving basins (e.g., water depth, tidal range, circulation pattern, and wind field), and substrate (e.g., sediment type and soil strength). These factors influence the deltaic growth as well as the size and pattern of channel bifurcations. This topic is of importance to deltas experiencing land loss due to subsidence and sea level rise. The Mississippi River Delta is an example where a number of sediment diversions are being considered in conjunction with other restoration actions to minimize loss of wetlands. Historically, the Mississippi River played a significant role in providing sediment, nutrients, and fresh water to support Louisiana's coastal wetland system. As such, a systems perspective for regional-scale implementation of diversions is important. Field observations coupled with numerical modeling at various temporal and spatial scales, has provided insights toward a system-scale approach to design, evaluate and operate sediment diversions. These research activities investigate the uncertainties associated with morphodynamic processes both on the river and receiving basin sides and identify parameters influencing the magnitude and rate of building new land and sustaining existing wetland areas. Specifically, this presentation discusses the impact of extracting sediment and water from fluvial rivers, the ability to convey (and retain) sediment to the receiving basins. In addition to delivering sediment to receiving basins, some proposed sediment diversions could discharge high volumes of nutrient-rich fresh water into existing wetlands and bays. A goal of the analysis presented here is to improve our understanding of morphodynamic responses of the receiving basins and the ecosystem effects of discharges of freshwater and nutrients at this scale.

Multi objective climate change impact assessment using multi downscaled climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid

2016-04-01

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to downscale the climatic parameters on a regional and global scale. In the present study, we have analyzed the changes in precipitation and temperature for future scenario period of 2070-2099 with respect to historical period of 1970-2000 from a set of statistically downscaled GCM projections for Columbia River Basin (CRB). Analysis is performed using 2 different statistically downscaled climate projections namely the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique generated at Portland State University and the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) technique, generated at University of Idaho, totaling to 40 different scenarios. Analysis is performed on spatial, temporal and frequency based parameters in the future period at a scale of 1/16th of degree for entire CRB region. Results have indicated in varied degree of spatial change pattern for the entire Columbia River Basin, especially western part of the basin. At temporal scales, winter precipitation has higher variability than summer and vice-versa for temperature. Frequency analysis provided insights into possible explanation to changes in precipitation.

Basins of coexistence and extinction in spatially extended ecosystems of cyclically competing species.

PubMed

Ni, Xuan; Yang, Rui; Wang, Wen-Xu; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Grebogi, Celso

2010-12-01

Microscopic models based on evolutionary games on spatially extended scales have recently been developed to address the fundamental issue of species coexistence. In this pursuit almost all existing works focus on the relevant dynamical behaviors originated from a single but physically reasonable initial condition. To gain comprehensive and global insights into the dynamics of coexistence, here we explore the basins of coexistence and extinction and investigate how they evolve as a basic parameter of the system is varied. Our model is cyclic competitions among three species as described by the classical rock-paper-scissors game, and we consider both discrete lattice and continuous space, incorporating species mobility and intraspecific competitions. Our results reveal that, for all cases considered, a basin of coexistence always emerges and persists in a substantial part of the parameter space, indicating that coexistence is a robust phenomenon. Factors such as intraspecific competition can, in fact, promote coexistence by facilitating the emergence of the coexistence basin. In addition, we find that the extinction basins can exhibit quite complex structures in terms of the convergence time toward the final state for different initial conditions. We have also developed models based on partial differential equations, which yield basin structures that are in good agreement with those from microscopic stochastic simulations. To understand the origin and emergence of the observed complicated basin structures is challenging at the present due to the extremely high dimensional nature of the underlying dynamical system. © 2010 American Institute of Physics.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wolfram, Phillip J.; Ringler, Todd D.; Maltrud, Mathew E.

Isopycnal diffusivity due to stirring by mesoscale eddies in an idealized, wind-forced, eddying, midlatitude ocean basin is computed using Lagrangian, in Situ, Global, High-Performance Particle Tracking (LIGHT). Simulation is performed via LIGHT within the Model for Prediction across Scales Ocean (MPAS-O). Simulations are performed at 4-, 8-, 16-, and 32-km resolution, where the first Rossby radius of deformation (RRD) is approximately 30 km. Scalar and tensor diffusivities are estimated at each resolution based on 30 ensemble members using particle cluster statistics. Each ensemble member is composed of 303 665 particles distributed across five potential density surfaces. Diffusivity dependence upon modelmore » resolution, velocity spatial scale, and buoyancy surface is quantified and compared with mixing length theory. The spatial structure of diffusivity ranges over approximately two orders of magnitude with values of O(10 5) m 2 s –1 in the region of western boundary current separation to O(10 3) m 2 s –1 in the eastern region of the basin. Dominant mixing occurs at scales twice the size of the first RRD. Model resolution at scales finer than the RRD is necessary to obtain sufficient model fidelity at scales between one and four RRD to accurately represent mixing. Mixing length scaling with eddy kinetic energy and the Lagrangian time scale yield mixing efficiencies that typically range between 0.4 and 0.8. In conclusion, a reduced mixing length in the eastern region of the domain relative to the west suggests there are different mixing regimes outside the baroclinic jet region.« less

The role of storm scale, position and movement in controlling urban flood response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; Zhou, Zhengzheng; Yang, Long; Liu, Shuguang; Smith, James

2018-01-01

The impact of spatial and temporal variability of rainfall on hydrological response remains poorly understood, in particular in urban catchments due to their strong variability in land use, a high degree of imperviousness and the presence of stormwater infrastructure. In this study, we analyze the effect of storm scale, position and movement in relation to basin scale and flow-path network structure on urban hydrological response. A catalog of 279 peak events was extracted from a high-quality observational dataset covering 15 years of flow observations and radar rainfall data for five (semi)urbanized basins ranging from 7.0 to 111.1 km2 in size. Results showed that the largest peak flows in the event catalog were associated with storm core scales exceeding basin scale, for all except the largest basin. Spatial scale of flood-producing storm events in the smaller basins fell into two groups: storms of large spatial scales exceeding basin size or small, concentrated events, with storm core much smaller than basin size. For the majority of events, spatial rainfall variability was strongly smoothed by the flow-path network, increasingly so for larger basin size. Correlation analysis showed that position of the storm in relation to the flow-path network was significantly correlated with peak flow in the smallest and in the two more urbanized basins. Analysis of storm movement relative to the flow-path network showed that direction of storm movement, upstream or downstream relative to the flow-path network, had little influence on hydrological response. Slow-moving storms tend to be associated with higher peak flows and longer lag times. Unexpectedly, position of the storm relative to impervious cover within the basins had little effect on flow peaks. These findings show the importance of observation-based analysis in validating and improving our understanding of interactions between the spatial distribution of rainfall and catchment variability.

Fluvial Connectivity and Sediment Dispersal within Continental Extensional Basins; Assessment of Controlling Factors using Numerical Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geurts, A., Jr.; Cowie, P. A.; Gawthorpe, R.; Huismans, R. S.; Pedersen, V. K.

2017-12-01

Progressive integration of drainage networks has been documented in many regional-scale studies of extensional continental systems. While endorheic drainage and lake sedimentation are common features observed in basin stratigraphy, they often disappear from the record due to the development of a through-going river network. Because changes in the fluvial connectivity of extensional basins have profound impact on erosion and sediment dispersal, and thus the feedback between surface processes and tectonics, it is of great importance to understand what controls them. Headward erosion (also called headward capture or river piracy) is often suggested to be the main mechanism causing basins to become interconnected over time with one another and with the regional/coastal drainage network. We show that overspill mechanisms (basin over-filling or lake over-spilling) play a key role in the actively extending central Italian Apennines, even though this area is theoretically favorable for headward erosion (short distances to the coast in combination with rapid surface uplift). In other tectonic settings (e.g. contractional basins and high plateaux) the role of headward erosion in transverse drainage development and integrating endorheic basins has also been increasingly questioned. These two mechanisms predict very different spatio-temporal patterns of sediment dispersal and thus timing of sediment loading (or erosional unloading) along active normal faults, which in turn may influence the locus of subsequent extensional deformation. By means of surface process modelling we develop a process-based understanding of the controls on fluvial connectivity between extensional basins in the central Italian Apennines. We focus on which conditions (tectonic and erosional) favour headward erosion versus overspill and compare our model results with published field evidence for drainage integration and the timing of basin sedimentation/incision.

Atmospheric nitrogen deposition in the Yangtze River basin: Spatial pattern and source attribution.

PubMed

Xu, Wen; Zhao, Yuanhong; Liu, Xuejun; Dore, Anthony J; Zhang, Lin; Liu, Lei; Cheng, Miaomiao

2018-01-01

The Yangtze River basin is one of the world's hotspots for nitrogen (N) deposition and likely plays an important role in China's riverine N output. Here we constructed a basin-scale total dissolved inorganic N (DIN) deposition (bulk plus dry) pattern based on published data at 100 observational sites between 2000 and 2014, and assessed the relative contributions of different reactive N (N r ) emission sectors to total DIN deposition using the GEOS-Chem model. Our results show a significant spatial variation in total DIN deposition across the Yangtze River basin (33.2 kg N ha -1 yr -1 on average), with the highest fluxes occurring mainly in the central basin (e.g., Sichuan, Hubei and Hunan provinces, and Chongqing municipality). This indicates that controlling N deposition should build on mitigation strategies according to local conditions, namely, implementation of stricter control of N r emissions in N deposition hotspots but moderate control in the areas with low N deposition levels. Total DIN deposition in approximately 82% of the basin area exceeded the critical load of N deposition for semi-natural ecosystems along the basin. On the basin scale, the dominant source of DIN deposition is fertilizer use (40%) relative to livestock (11%), industry (13%), power plant (9%), transportation (9%), and others (18%, which is the sum of contributions from human waste, residential activities, soil, lighting and biomass burning), suggesting that reducing NH 3 emissions from improper fertilizer (including chemical and organic fertilizer) application should be a priority in curbing N deposition. This, together with distinct spatial variations in emission sector contributions to total DIN deposition also suggest that, in addition to fertilizer, major emission sectors in different regions of the basin should be considered when developing synergistic control measures. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Bed turbulent kinetic energy boundary conditions for trapping efficiency and spatial distribution of sediments in basins.

PubMed

Isenmann, Gilles; Dufresne, Matthieu; Vazquez, José; Mose, Robert

2017-10-01

The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a numerical tool for evaluating the performance of a settling basin regarding the trapping of suspended matter. The Euler-Lagrange approach was chosen to model the flow and sediment transport. The numerical model developed relies on the open source library OpenFOAM ® , enhanced with new particle/wall interaction conditions to limit sediment deposition in zones with favourable hydrodynamic conditions (shear stress, turbulent kinetic energy). In particular, a new relation is proposed for calculating the turbulent kinetic energy threshold as a function of the properties of each particle (diameter and density). The numerical model is compared to three experimental datasets taken from the literature and collected for scale models of basins. The comparison of the numerical and experimental results permits concluding on the model's capacity to predict the trapping of particles in a settling basin with an absolute error in the region of 5% when the sediment depositions occur over the entire bed. In the case of sediment depositions localised in preferential zones, their distribution is reproduced well by the model and trapping efficiency is evaluated with an absolute error in the region of 10% (excluding cases of particles with very low density).

Tethys – A Python Package for Spatial and Temporal Downscaling of Global Water Withdrawals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xinya; Vernon, Chris R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.

Downscaling of water withdrawals from regional/national to local scale is a fundamental step and also a common problem when integrating large scale economic and integrated assessment models with high-resolution detailed sectoral models. Tethys, an open-access software written in Python, is developed with statistical downscaling algorithms, to spatially and temporally downscale water withdrawal data to a finer scale. The spatial resolution will be downscaled from region/basin scale to grid (0.5 geographic degree) scale and the temporal resolution will be downscaled from year to month. Tethys is used to produce monthly global gridded water withdrawal products based on estimates from the Globalmore » Change Assessment Model (GCAM).« less

Tethys – A Python Package for Spatial and Temporal Downscaling of Global Water Withdrawals

DOE PAGES

Li, Xinya; Vernon, Chris R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; ...

2018-02-09

Downscaling of water withdrawals from regional/national to local scale is a fundamental step and also a common problem when integrating large scale economic and integrated assessment models with high-resolution detailed sectoral models. Tethys, an open-access software written in Python, is developed with statistical downscaling algorithms, to spatially and temporally downscale water withdrawal data to a finer scale. The spatial resolution will be downscaled from region/basin scale to grid (0.5 geographic degree) scale and the temporal resolution will be downscaled from year to month. Tethys is used to produce monthly global gridded water withdrawal products based on estimates from the Globalmore » Change Assessment Model (GCAM).« less

Multivariate geostatistical modeling of the spatial sediment distribution in a large scale drainage basin, Upper Rhone, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoch, Anna; Blöthe, Jan Henrik; Hoffmann, Thomas; Schrott, Lothar

2018-02-01

There is a notable discrepancy between detailed sediment budget studies in small headwater catchments (< 102 km2) focusing on the identification of sedimentary landforms in the field (e.g. talus cones, moraine deposits, fans) and large scale studies (> 103 km2) in higher order catchments applying modeling and/or remote sensing based approaches for major sediment storage delineation. To bridge the gap between these scales, we compiled an inventory of sediment and bedrock coverage from field mapping, remote sensing analysis and published data for five key sites in the Upper Rhone Basin (Val d'Illiez, Val de la Liène, Turtmanntal, Lötschental, Goms; 360.3 km2, equivalent to 6.7% of the Upper Rhone Basin). This inventory was used as training and testing data for the classification of sediment and bedrock cover. From a digital elevation model (2 × 2 m ground resolution) and Landsat imagery we derived 22 parameters characterizing local morphometry, topography and position, contributing area, and climatic and biotic factors on different spatial scales, which were used as inputs for different statistical models (logistic regression, principal component logistic regression, generalized additive model). Best prediction results with an excellent performance (mean AUROC: 0.8721 ± 0.0012) and both a high spatial and non-spatial transferability were achieved applying a generalized additive model. Since the model has a high thematic consistency, the independent input variables chosen based on their geomorphic relevance are suitable to model the spatial distribution of sediment. Our high-resolution classification shows that 53.5 ± 21.7% of the Upper Rhone Basin are covered with sediment. These are by no means evenly distributed: small headwaters (< 5 km2) feature a very strong variability in sediment coverage, with watersheds drowning in sediments juxtaposed to watersheds devoid of sediment cover. In contrast, larger watersheds predominantly show a bimodal distribution, with highest densities for bedrock (30-40%) being consistently lower than for sediment cover (60-65%). Earlier studies quantifying sedimentary cover and volume focus on the broad glacially overdeepened Rhone Valley that accounts for c. 9% of our study area. While our data support its importance, we conservatively estimate that the remaining 90% of sediment cover, mainly located outside trunk valleys, account for a volume of 2.6-13 km3, i.e. 2-16% of the estimated sediment volume stored in the Rhone Valley between Brig and Lake Geneva. Furthermore, our data reveal increased relative sediment cover in areas deglaciated since the Little Ice Age, as compared to headwater regions without this recent glacial imprint. We therefore conclude that sediment storage in low-order valleys, often neglected in large scale studies, constitutes a significant component of large scale sediment budgets that needs to be better included into future analysis.

Effects of different regional climate model resolution and forcing scales on projected hydrologic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, Pablo A.; Mizukami, Naoki; Ikeda, Kyoko; Clark, Martyn P.; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.; Brekke, Levi D.; Rajagopalan, Balaji

2016-10-01

We examine the effects of regional climate model (RCM) horizontal resolution and forcing scaling (i.e., spatial aggregation of meteorological datasets) on the portrayal of climate change impacts. Specifically, we assess how the above decisions affect: (i) historical simulation of signature measures of hydrologic behavior, and (ii) projected changes in terms of annual water balance and hydrologic signature measures. To this end, we conduct our study in three catchments located in the headwaters of the Colorado River basin. Meteorological forcings for current and a future climate projection are obtained at three spatial resolutions (4-, 12- and 36-km) from dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, and hydrologic changes are computed using four different hydrologic model structures. These projected changes are compared to those obtained from running hydrologic simulations with current and future 4-km WRF climate outputs re-scaled to 12- and 36-km. The results show that the horizontal resolution of WRF simulations heavily affects basin-averaged precipitation amounts, propagating into large differences in simulated signature measures across model structures. The implications of re-scaled forcing datasets on historical performance were primarily observed on simulated runoff seasonality. We also found that the effects of WRF grid resolution on projected changes in mean annual runoff and evapotranspiration may be larger than the effects of hydrologic model choice, which surpasses the effects from re-scaled forcings. Scaling effects on projected variations in hydrologic signature measures were found to be generally smaller than those coming from WRF resolution; however, forcing aggregation in many cases reversed the direction of projected changes in hydrologic behavior.

Discharge prediction in the Upper Senegal River using remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceccarini, Iacopo; Raso, Luciano; Steele-Dunne, Susan; Hrachowitz, Markus; Nijzink, Remko; Bodian, Ansoumana; Claps, Pierluigi

2017-04-01

The Upper Senegal River, West Africa, is a poorly gauged basin. Nevertheless, discharge predictions are required in this river for the optimal operation of the downstream Manantali reservoir, flood forecasting, development plans for the entire basin and studies for adaptation to climate change. Despite the need for reliable discharge predictions, currently available rainfall-runoff models for this basin provide only poor performances, particularly during extreme regimes, both low-flow and high-flow. In this research we develop a rainfall-runoff model that combines remote-sensing input data and a-priori knowledge on catchment physical characteristics. This semi-distributed model, is based on conceptual numerical descriptions of hydrological processes at the catchment scale. Because of the lack of reliable input data from ground observations, we use the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) remote-sensing data for precipitation and the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) for the terrestrial potential evaporation. The model parameters are selected by a combination of calibration, by match of observed output and considering a large set of hydrological signatures, as well as a-priori knowledge on the catchment. The Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method was used to choose the most likely range in which the parameter sets belong. Analysis of different experiments enhances our understanding on the added value of distributed remote-sensing data and a-priori information in rainfall-runoff modelling. Results of this research will be used for decision making at different scales, contributing to a rational use of water resources in this river.

One-way coupling of an integrated assessment model and a water resources model: evaluation and implications of future changes over the US Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voisin, N.; Liu, L.; Hejazi, M.; Tesfa, T.; Li, H.; Huang, M.; Liu, Y.; Leung, L. R.

2013-11-01

An integrated model is being developed to advance our understanding of the interactions between human activities, terrestrial system and water cycle, and to evaluate how system interactions will be affected by a changing climate at the regional scale. As a first step towards that goal, a global integrated assessment model, which includes a water-demand model driven by socioeconomics at regional and global scales, is coupled in a one-way fashion with a land surface hydrology-routing-water resources management model. To reconcile the scale differences between the models, a spatial and temporal disaggregation approach is developed to downscale the annual regional water demand simulations into a daily time step and subbasin representation. The model demonstrates reasonable ability to represent the historical flow regulation and water supply over the US Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi, and Ohio river basins). Implications for future flow regulation, water supply, and supply deficit are investigated using climate change projections with the B1 and A2 emission scenarios, which affect both natural flow and water demand. Although natural flow is projected to increase under climate change in both the B1 and A2 scenarios, there is larger uncertainty in the changes of the regulated flow. Over the Ohio and Upper Mississippi river basins, changes in flow regulation are driven by the change in natural flow due to the limited storage capacity. However, both changes in flow and demand have effects on the Missouri River Basin summer regulated flow. Changes in demand are driven by socioeconomic factors, energy and food demands, global markets and prices with rainfed crop demand handled directly by the land surface modeling component. Even though most of the changes in supply deficit (unmet demand) and the actual supply (met demand) are driven primarily by the change in natural flow over the entire region, the integrated framework shows that supply deficit over the Missouri River Basin sees an increasing sensitivity to changes in demand in future periods. It further shows that the supply deficit is six times as sensitive as the actual supply to changes in flow and demand. A spatial analysis of the supply deficit demonstrates vulnerabilities of urban areas located along mainstream with limited storage.

Basin-scale geothermal model calibration: experience from the Perth Basin, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wellmann, Florian; Reid, Lynn

2014-05-01

The calibration of large-scale geothermal models for entire sedimentary basins is challenging as direct measurements of rock properties and subsurface temperatures are commonly scarce and the basal boundary conditions poorly constrained. Instead of the often applied "trial-and-error" manual model calibration, we examine here if we can gain additional insight into parameter sensitivities and model uncertainty with a model analysis and calibration study. Our geothermal model is based on a high-resolution full 3-D geological model, covering an area of more than 100,000 square kilometers and extending to a depth of 55 kilometers. The model contains all major faults (>80 ) and geological units (13) for the entire basin. This geological model is discretised into a rectilinear mesh with a lateral resolution of 500 x 500 m, and a variable resolution at depth. The highest resolution of 25 m is applied to a depth range of 1000-3000 m where most temperature measurements are available. The entire discretised model consists of approximately 50 million cells. The top thermal boundary condition is derived from surface temperature measurements on land and ocean floor. The base of the model extents below the Moho, and we apply the heat flux over the Moho as a basal heat flux boundary condition. Rock properties (thermal conductivity, porosity, and heat production) have been compiled from several existing data sets. The conductive geothermal forward simulation is performed with SHEMAT, and we then use the stand-alone capabilities of iTOUGH2 for sensitivity analysis and model calibration. Simulated temperatures are compared to 130 quality weighted bottom hole temperature measurements. The sensitivity analysis provided a clear insight into the most sensitive parameters and parameter correlations. This proved to be of value as strong correlations, for example between basal heat flux and heat production in deep geological units, can significantly influence the model calibration procedure. The calibration resulted in a better determination of subsurface temperatures, and, in addition, provided an insight into model quality. Furthermore, a detailed analysis of the measurements used for calibration highlighted potential outliers, and limitations with the model assumptions. Extending the previously existing large-scale geothermal simulation with iTOUGH2 provided us with a valuable insight into the sensitive parameters and data in the model, which would clearly not be possible with a simple trial-and-error calibration method. Using the gained knowledge, future work will include more detailed studies on the influence of advection and convection.

System Dynamics Modeling of Transboundary Systems: The Bear River Basin Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gerald Sehlke; Jake Jacobson

2005-09-01

System dynamics is a computer-aided approach to evaluating the interrelationships of different components and activities within complex systems. Recently, system dynamics models have been developed in areas such as policy design, biological and medical modeling, energy and the environmental analysis, and in various other areas in the natural and social sciences. The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, a multi-purpose national laboratory managed by the Department of Energy, has developed a systems dynamics model in order to evaluate its utility for modeling large complex hydrological systems. We modeled the Bear River Basin, a transboundary basin that includes portions of Idaho,more » Utah and Wyoming. We found that system dynamics modeling is very useful for integrating surface water and groundwater data and for simulating the interactions between these sources within a given basin. In addition, we also found system dynamics modeling is useful for integrating complex hydrologic data with other information (e.g., policy, regulatory and management criteria) to produce a decision support system. Such decision support systems can allow managers and stakeholders to better visualize the key hydrologic elements and management constraints in the basin, which enables them to better understand the system via the simulation of multiple “what-if” scenarios. Although system dynamics models can be developed to conduct traditional hydraulic/hydrologic surface water or groundwater modeling, we believe that their strength lies in their ability to quickly evaluate trends and cause–effect relationships in large-scale hydrological systems; for integrating disparate data; for incorporating output from traditional hydraulic/hydrologic models; and for integration of interdisciplinary data, information and criteria to support better management decisions.« less

System Dynamics Modeling of Transboundary Systems: the Bear River Basin Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gerald Sehlke; Jacob J. Jacobson

2005-09-01

System dynamics is a computer-aided approach to evaluating the interrelationships of different components and activities within complex systems. Recently, system dynamics models have been developed in areas such as policy design, biological and medical modeling, energy and the environmental analysis, and in various other areas in the natural and social sciences. The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, a multi-purpose national laboratory managed by the Department of Energy, has developed a systems dynamics model in order to evaluate its utility for modeling large complex hydrological systems. We modeled the Bear River Basin, a transboundary basin that includes portions of Idaho,more » Utah and Wyoming. We found that system dynamics modeling is very useful for integrating surface water and ground water data and for simulating the interactions between these sources within a given basin. In addition, we also found system dynamics modeling is useful for integrating complex hydrologic data with other information (e.g., policy, regulatory and management criteria) to produce a decision support system. Such decision support systems can allow managers and stakeholders to better visualize the key hydrologic elements and management constraints in the basin, which enables them to better understand the system via the simulation of multiple “what-if” scenarios. Although system dynamics models can be developed to conduct traditional hydraulic/hydrologic surface water or ground water modeling, we believe that their strength lies in their ability to quickly evaluate trends and cause–effect relationships in large-scale hydrological systems; for integrating disparate data; for incorporating output from traditional hydraulic/hydrologic models; and for integration of interdisciplinary data, information and criteria to support better management decisions.« less

Re-plumbing the Terrestrial Hydrosphere: Scope and Impact of Major Inter-basin Water Transfers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shikhmacheva, K. V.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Fekete, B. M.; Afshari, S.; Aside, B.; Chibisova, Y.; Dopson, I.; Link, H.; Mouden, A.

2013-12-01

The availability of water has become one of the main concerns in modern history and it is an important policymaking strategy. Increasing population, agricultural intensification, rapid urbanization, industrial expansion and environmental changes increase water demand on region and global scales. Inter-Basin Water Transfer (IBWT) is an important element of satisfying immediate water requirements. The complex engineering structures divert water flow between watersheds, thus ';re-plumbing' terrestrial hydrosphere. We report here an analysis of inter-basin water transfer for the Northeast region, which is a part of an NSF funded project entitled 'The NorthEast Regional Earth System Model (NE-RESM).' In addition, this work is also a part of a global IBWT study. First, we present the IBWT geo-referenced assembled data set, derived from from maps, published documents and online resources. The information in the data base was classified by project name, diverted volume, source location, usage, status of construction, transport distance and purpose. The key feature of the dataset is geo-location of the projects, that allows further analysis of the hydrologic impact of each of the projects as well as their collective significance. Upon completion of the data-collection phase, the inputs were verified using RiverGIS and ArcGIS software. In addition, we investigated some key measures of IBWT distortion of regional-scale hydrology as well as their socio-economic impacts across the Northeast region. We calculated several indicators to assess these impacts, for example the donor-to-recipient basin flow ratio, which represents the 'gain' and 'loss' of water relative to the natural flow on a basin scale. Elements of the regional IBWT data base will be incorporated into the regional-scale Water Balance Model (WBM), and linked to the operation of reservoirs and dams. While focused on the Northeastern U.S., we believe that this data, its testing and applications will yield broad use and interest across the community, giving researchers a next important resource in the arsenal of datasets depicting human-water interactions.

The potential for land use change to reduce flood risk in mid-sized catchments in the Myjava region of Slovakia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rončák, Peter; Lisovszki, Evelin; Szolgay, Ján; Hlavčová, Kamila; Kohnová, Silvia; Csoma, Rózsa; Poórová, Jana

2017-06-01

The effects of land use management practices on surface runoff are evident on a local scale, but evidence of their impact on the scale of a watershed is limited. This study focuses on an analysis of the impact of land use changes on the flood regime in the Myjava River basin, which is located in Western Slovakia. The Myjava River basin has an area of 641.32 km2 and is typified by the formation of fast runoff processes, intensive soil erosion, and muddy floods. The main factors responsible for these problems with flooding and soil erosion are the basin's location, geology, pedology, agricultural land use, and cropping practices. The GIS-based, spatially distributed WetSpa rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate mean daily discharges in the outlet of the basin as well as the individual components of the water balance. The model was calibrated based on the period between 1997 and 2012 with outstanding results (an NS coefficient of 0.702). Various components of runoff (e.g., surface, interflow and groundwater) and several elements of the hydrological balance (evapotranspiration and soil moisture) were simulated under various land use scenarios. Six land use scenarios (`crop', `grass', `forest', `slope', `elevation' and `optimal') were developed. The first three scenarios exhibited the ability of the WetSpa model to simulate runoff under changed land use conditions and enabled a better adjustment of the land use parameters of the model. Three other "more realistic" land use scenarios, which were based on the distribution of land use classes (arable land, grass and forest) regarding permissible slopes in the catchment, confirmed the possibility of reducing surface runoff and maximum discharges with applicable changes in land use and land management. These scenarios represent practical, realistic and realizable land use management solutions and they could be economically implemented to mitigate soil erosion processes and enhance the flood protection measures in the Myjava River basin.

A hydrogeomorphic river network model predicts where and why hyporheic exchange is important in large basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomez-Velez, Jesus D.; Harvey, Judson

2014-01-01

Hyporheic exchange has been hypothesized to have basin-scale consequences; however, predictions throughout river networks are limited by available geomorphic and hydrogeologic data and by models that can analyze and aggregate hyporheic exchange flows across large spatial scales. We developed a parsimonious but physically based model of hyporheic flow for application in large river basins: Networks with EXchange and Subsurface Storage (NEXSS). We applied NEXSS across a broad range of geomorphic diversity in river reaches and synthetic river networks. NEXSS demonstrates that vertical exchange beneath submerged bed forms rather than lateral exchange through meanders dominates hyporheic fluxes and turnover rates along river corridors. Per kilometer, low-order streams have a biogeochemical potential at least 2 orders of magnitude larger than higher-order streams. However, when biogeochemical potential is examined per average length of each stream order, low- and high-order streams were often found to be comparable. As a result, the hyporheic zone's intrinsic potential for biogeochemical transformations is comparable across different stream orders, but the greater river miles and larger total streambed area of lower order streams result in the highest cumulative impact from low-order streams. Lateral exchange through meander banks may be important in some cases but generally only in large rivers.

A hydrogeomorphic river network model predicts where and why hyporheic exchange is important in large basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez-Velez, Jesus D.; Harvey, Judson W.

2014-09-01

Hyporheic exchange has been hypothesized to have basin-scale consequences; however, predictions throughout river networks are limited by available geomorphic and hydrogeologic data and by models that can analyze and aggregate hyporheic exchange flows across large spatial scales. We developed a parsimonious but physically based model of hyporheic flow for application in large river basins: Networks with EXchange and Subsurface Storage (NEXSS). We applied NEXSS across a broad range of geomorphic diversity in river reaches and synthetic river networks. NEXSS demonstrates that vertical exchange beneath submerged bed forms rather than lateral exchange through meanders dominates hyporheic fluxes and turnover rates along river corridors. Per kilometer, low-order streams have a biogeochemical potential at least 2 orders of magnitude larger than higher-order streams. However, when biogeochemical potential is examined per average length of each stream order, low- and high-order streams were often found to be comparable. As a result, the hyporheic zone's intrinsic potential for biogeochemical transformations is comparable across different stream orders, but the greater river miles and larger total streambed area of lower order streams result in the highest cumulative impact from low-order streams. Lateral exchange through meander banks may be important in some cases but generally only in large rivers.

Global hydrodynamic modelling of flood inundation in continental rivers: How can we achieve it?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamazaki, D.

2016-12-01

Global-scale modelling of river hydrodynamics is essential for understanding global hydrological cycle, and is also required in interdisciplinary research fields . Global river models have been developed continuously for more than two decades, but modelling river flow at a global scale is still a challenging topic because surface water movement in continental rivers is a multi-spatial-scale phenomena. We have to consider the basin-wide water balance (>1000km scale), while hydrodynamics in river channels and floodplains is regulated by much smaller-scale topography (<100m scale). For example, heavy precipitation in upstream regions may later cause flooding in farthest downstream reaches. In order to realistically simulate the timing and amplitude of flood wave propagation for a long distance, consideration of detailed local topography is unavoidable. I have developed the global hydrodynamic model CaMa-Flood to overcome this scale-discrepancy of continental river flow. The CaMa-Flood divides river basins into multiple "unit-catchments", and assumes the water level is uniform within each unit-catchment. One unit-catchment is assigned to each grid-box defined at the typical spatial resolution of global climate models (10 100 km scale). Adopting a uniform water level in a >10km river segment seems to be a big assumption, but it is actually a good approximation for hydrodynamic modelling of continental rivers. The number of grid points required for global hydrodynamic simulations is largely reduced by this "unit-catchment assumption". Alternative to calculating 2-dimensional floodplain flows as in regional flood models, the CaMa-Flood treats floodplain inundation in a unit-catchment as a sub-grid physics. The water level and inundated area in each unit-catchment are diagnosed from water volume using topography parameters derived from high-resolution digital elevation models. Thus, the CaMa-Flood is at least 1000 times computationally more efficient compared to regional flood inundation models while the reality of simulated flood dynamics is kept. I will explain in detail how the CaMa-Flood model has been constructed from high-resolution topography datasets, and how the model can be used for various interdisciplinary applications.

Evaluating Mantle-to-Surface Hydrologic Connections in the Rio Grande Rift using Mathematical Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woolsey, E. E.; Person, M. A.; Crossey, L. J.; Phillips, F. M.; Karlstrom, K. E.; Williams, A. J.

2012-12-01

The southern terminus of the Albuquerque Basin along the Rio Grande Rift (RGR) is characterized by high river salinity (200-700 mg/L), temperature (29°C at 155 m depth), and mantle helium (0.26-0.37 RC/A) anomalies, which are clear indications of complex mixing of mantle and crustal fluids. The zone of maximum uplift of the Socorro Magma Body (SMB) is also localized at the southern end of the Albuquerque Basin. Two end member hypotheses have been proposed to account for salt loading in the Rio Grande: 1) basin constriction forcing brines and warm water to the surface and 2) fault-controlled fluid flow from deep mantle/magmatic sources. A better understanding of the hydrologic controls is necessary to assess the degradation of water quality along the Rio Grande. The role of basin constriction and fault-controlled fluid flow in explaining observed fluxes of salinity, enthalpy and primordial helium is examined in this study using mathematical modeling. A basin-scale, cross-sectional hydrologic model was constructed along the RGR in the Albuquerque and Socorro Basins drawn to a depth of 19 km to incorporate deeply derived inputs related to the SMB. The finite element model used is capable of representing heat, brine and noble gas transport. Geologic maps, well bore lithologic logs, as well as gravity and seismic-surveys were used to construct the general N-S cross-section on which the model is based. The model follows the longitudinal profile of the Rio Grande through the Albuquerque Basin and into the Socorro Basin. Multiple versions of the model were created based on two working hypotheses to better understand the structural and hydrologic controls at the basin boundary. One model assumes that the Tertiary dike exposed at the boundary acts as a conduit for deeply sourced fluids and primordial 3He related to the SMB. An alternate version assumes all the units down to the Precambrian basement rock decrease in depth significantly at the basin boundary due to the southward constriction of the Albuquerque Basin at the transition to the Socorro Basin. New and existing groundwater salinity, temperature, 3He/4He, and 14C data provide the ground truth for model calibration and sensitivity analysis. The model results illustrate the importance of deeply penetrating, moderately permeable fault zones (10-12 to 10-15 m2) in advective transport of groundwater, primordial 3He and mantle volatiles through the ductile boundary to shallow crustal levels. The simulated 3He/4He ratios at the surface conduit exposures are within the published values measured at the basin boundary and within the RGR. Thermal expansion of the magma body is being used to estimate the age of emplacement (≤ 30,000 years) based on 3He, temperature, and Rio Grande terrace deflection data. Both regional and local flow systems are evident in the model and likely account for the salinity increase in the Rio Grande at the basin boundary constriction where the upwelling deep sedimentary basin brines mix with the shallow groundwater system.

Stress and deformation characteristics of sea ice in a high resolution numerical sea ice model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heorton, Harry; Feltham, Daniel; Tsamados, Michel

2017-04-01

The drift and deformation of sea ice floating on the polar oceans is due to the applied wind and ocean currents. The deformations of sea ice over ocean basin length scales have observable patterns; cracks and leads in satellite images and within the velocity fields generated from floe tracking. In a climate sea ice model the deformation of sea ice over ocean basin length scales is modelled using a rheology that represents the relationship between stresses and deformation within the sea ice cover. Here we investigate the link between observable deformation characteristics and the underlying internal sea ice stresses and force balance using the Los Alamos numerical sea ice climate model. In order to mimic laboratory experiments on the deformation of small cubes of sea ice we have developed an idealised square domain that tests the model response at spatial resolutions of up to 500m. We use the Elastic Anisotropic Plastic and Elastic Viscous Plastic rheologies, comparing their stability over varying resolutions and time scales. Sea ice within the domain is forced by idealised winds in order to compare the confinement of wind stresses and internal sea ice stresses. We document the characteristic deformation patterns of convergent, divergent and rotating stress states.

Thermal state of the Arkoma Basin and the Anadarko Basin, Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Youngmin

1999-12-01

One of the most fundamental physical processes that affects virtually all geologic phenomena in sedimentary basins is the flow of heat from the Earth's interiors. The Arkoma Basin and the Anadarko Basin, Oklahoma, are a prolific producer of both oil and natural gas. Both basins also have important geologic phenomena. Understanding the thermal state of the these basins is crucial to understanding the timing and extent of hydrocarbon generation, the genesis of Mississippi Valley-type ore deposits, and the origin of overpressures in the Anadarko Basin. In chapter one, heat flow and heat production in the Arkoma basin and Oklahoma Platform are discussed. Results of this study are not generally supportive of theories which invoke topographically driven regional groundwater flow from the Arkoma Basin in Late Pennsylvanian-Early Permian time (˜290 Ma) to explain the genesis of geologic phenomena. In chapter 2, different types of thermal conductivity temperature corrections that are commonly applied in terrestrial heat flow studies are evaluated. The invariance of the relative rankings with respect to rock porosity suggests the rankings may be valid with respect to in situ conditions. Chapter three addresses heat flow and thermal history of the Anadarko Basin and the western Oklahoma Platform. We found no evidence for heat flow to increase significantly from the Anadarko Basin in the south to the Oklahoma Platform to the north. In chapter four, overpressures in the Anadarko Basin, southwestern Oklahoma are discussed. Using scale analyses and a simple numerical model, we evaluated two endmember hypotheses (compaction disequilibrium and hydrocarbon generation) as possible causes of overpressuring. Geopressure models which invoke compaction disequilibrium do not appear to apply to the Anadarko Basin. The Anadarko Basin belongs to a group of cratonic basins which are tectonically quiescent and are characterized by the association of abnormal pressures with natural gas. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Integrated Basin-Scale Modelling and Assessment: Lessons and Challenges in Linking Biophysical and Socioeconomic Sciences for Enhancing Sustainability Outcomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakeman, A. J.; Croke, B. F.; Letcher, R. A.; Newham, L. T.; Norton, J. P.

2004-12-01

Integrated Assessment (IA) and Integrated Scenario Modelling (ISM) are being increasingly used to assess sustainability options and, in particular, the effects of policy changes, land use management, climate forcing and other uncontrollable drivers on a wide range of river basin outcomes. IA and ISM are processes that invoke the necessary range of biophysical and socioeconomic disciplines and embrace stakeholder involvement as an essential ingredient. The authors report on their IA studies in Australian and Asian river basins. They illustrate a range of modelling frameworks and tools that were used to perform the assessments, engage the relevant interest groups and promote systems understanding and social learning. The studies cover a range of issues and policies including poverty alleviation, industrial investments, infrastructure provision, erosion and sedimentation, water supply allocation, and ecological protection. The positive impacts of these studies are presented, as well as the lessons learnt and the challenges for modellers and disciplinary experts in advancing the reputation and performance of integrated assessment exercises.

Scaling up watershed model parameters - flow and load simulations of the Edisto River basin

Treesearch

Toby Feaster; Stephen Benedict; Jimmy Clark; Paul Bradley; Paul Conrads

2016-01-01

The Edisto River is the longest and largest river system completely contained in South Carolina and is one of the longest free flowing blackwater rivers in the United States. The Edisto River basin also has fish-tissue mercury concentrations that are among the highest recorded in the United States. As part of an ongoing effort by the U.S. Geological Survey to expand...

Simulation of blue and green water resources in the Wei River basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Z.; Zuo, D.

2014-09-01

The Wei River is the largest tributary of the Yellow River in China and it is suffering from water scarcity and water pollution. In order to quantify the amount of water resources in the study area, a hydrological modelling approach was applied by using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), calibrated and validated with SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting program) based on river discharge in the Wei River basin (WRB). Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were also performed to improve the model performance. Water resources components of blue water flow, green water flow and green water storage were estimated at the HRU (Hydrological Response Unit) scales. Water resources in HRUs were also aggregated to sub-basins, river catchments, and then city/region scales for further analysis. The results showed that most parts of the WRB experienced a decrease in blue water resources between the 1960s and 2000s, with a minimum value in the 1990s. The decrease is particularly significant in the most southern part of the WRB (Guanzhong Plain), one of the most important grain production basements in China. Variations of green water flow and green water storage were relatively small on the spatial and temporal dimensions. This study provides strategic information for optimal utilization of water resources and planning of cultivating seasons in the Wei River basin.

Sedimentary basins reconnaissance using the magnetic Tilt-Depth method

USGS Publications Warehouse

Salem, A.; Williams, S.; Samson, E.; Fairhead, D.; Ravat, D.; Blakely, R.J.

2010-01-01

We compute the depth to the top of magnetic basement using the Tilt-Depth method from the best available magnetic anomaly grids covering the continental USA and Australia. For the USA, the Tilt-Depth estimates were compared with sediment thicknesses based on drilling data and show a correlation of 0.86 between the datasets. If random data were used then the correlation value goes to virtually zero. There is little to no lateral offset of the depth of basinal features although there is a tendency for the Tilt-Depth results to be slightly shallower than the drill depths. We also applied the Tilt-Depth method to a local-scale, relatively high-resolution aeromagnetic survey over the Olympic Peninsula of Washington State. The Tilt-Depth method successfully identified a variety of important tectonic elements known from geological mapping. Of particular interest, the Tilt-Depth method illuminated deep (3km) contacts within the non-magnetic sedimentary core of the Olympic Mountains, where magnetic anomalies are subdued and low in amplitude. For Australia, the Tilt-Depth estimates also give a good correlation with known areas of shallow basement and sedimentary basins. Our estimates of basement depth are not restricted to regional analysis but work equally well at the micro scale (basin scale) with depth estimates agreeing well with drill hole and seismic data. We focus on the eastern Officer Basin as an example of basin scale studies and find a good level of agreement between previously-derived basin models. However, our study potentially reveals depocentres not previously mapped due to the sparse distribution of well data. This example thus shows the potential additional advantage of the method in geological interpretation. The success of this study suggests that the Tilt-Depth method is useful in estimating the depth to crystalline basement when appropriate quality aeromagnetic anomaly data are used (i.e. line spacing on the order of or less than the expected depth to basement). The method is especially valuable as a reconnaissance tool in regions where drillhole or seismic information are either scarce, lacking, or ambiguous.

Screening variability and change of soil moisture under wide-ranging climate conditions: Snow dynamics effects.

PubMed

Verrot, Lucile; Destouni, Georgia

2015-01-01

Soil moisture influences and is influenced by water, climate, and ecosystem conditions, affecting associated ecosystem services in the landscape. This paper couples snow storage-melting dynamics with an analytical modeling approach to screening basin-scale, long-term soil moisture variability and change in a changing climate. This coupling enables assessment of both spatial differences and temporal changes across a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Model application is exemplified for two major Swedish hydrological basins, Norrström and Piteälven. These are located along a steep temperature gradient and have experienced different hydro-climatic changes over the time period of study, 1950-2009. Spatially, average intra-annual variability of soil moisture differs considerably between the basins due to their temperature-related differences in snow dynamics. With regard to temporal change, the long-term average state and intra-annual variability of soil moisture have not changed much, while inter-annual variability has changed considerably in response to hydro-climatic changes experienced so far in each basin.

PROJECTING THE BIOLOGICAL CONDITION OF STREAMS UNDER ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS OF HUMAN LAND USE

EPA Science Inventory

We present empirical models for estimating the status of fish and aquatic invertebrate communities in all second to fourth-order streams (1:100,000 scale; total stream length = 6476 km) throughout the Willamette River Basin, Oregon. The models project fish and invertebrate status...

Comparing The North-east German Basin With The Polish Basin, Influenced By Major Crustal Fractures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamarche, J.; Scheck, M.; Otto, V.; Bayer, U.; Lewerenz, B.

The North-East German Basin (NEGB) and the Polish Basin (PB) are two intraplate sedimentary basins in Central Europe, the development of which was controlled by deep crustal structures: the Elbe Fault System and the Teisseyre-Tornquist Zone, re- spectively. 3D structural models performed separately for each basin led to indepen- dent interpretations showing major similarities, but also significant differences. The outlook of the comparison between the NEGB and the PB is to lead to a joined 3D structural model, which allows reconstructing the synthetic geodynamic evolution of the area. The NEGB and PB are NW-SE-oriented. Both were initiated during Late Carboniferous and Lower Permian, when the post-Variscan rifting affected the com- posite Palaeozoic basement of Central Europe. During Triassic to Cretaceous times, both basins evolved due to thermal subsidence and pulses of tectonic subsidence. At the end of Cretaceous, the basins were tectonically inverted. The sedimentary succes- sions of the NEGB and PB are comparable. Particularly, the Zechstein salt induced comparable sedimentary structures and provided a decoupling level between pre- and post-Zechstein rocks during the Late Cretaceous tectonic inversion in both basins. At the crustal scale, both basins are presently limited to the SW by the NW-SE-oriented Elbe Fault System, that correlates with a positive gravity anomaly. Finally, both basins show a N-S differentiation regarding the detailed subsidence history, the structural set- ting and the salt pattern. In spite of the very similar tectonic evolution of the NEGB and the PB, their large-scale geometry and inversion-related structures are different. The NEGB is asymmetric with a shallow northern slope and a steep bounding fault at the SW margin (Elbe Fault System). In the NEGB, the Late Cretaceous tectonic inversion resulted in asymmetric uplift of the SW' border along the Elbe Fault Sys- tem, and in decreasing deformation in the cover towards North. In contrast, the PB is a symmetric basin, that developed above the Teisseyre-Tornquist Zone. The tectonic inversion resulted in a rather symmetric swell, uplifted along the axis of the former basin. The occurrence and rejuvenation of the deep-seated Teisseyre-Tornquist Zone is held responsible for the symmetry of the PB during its development and later inver- sion, whereas the reactivation of the Elbe Fault Zone induced asymmetric deformation in the Mesozoic cover at the SW margin of the NEGB.

A Physically-based Model For Rainfall-triggered Landslides At A Regional Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teles, V.; Capolongo, D.; Bras, R. L.

Rainfall has long been recognized as a major cause of landslides. Historical records have shown that large rainfall can generate hundreds of landslides over hundreds of square kilometers. Although a great body of work has documented the morphology and mechanics of individual slope failure, few studies have considered the process at basin and regional scale. A landslide model is integrated in the landscape evolution model CHILD and simulates rainfall-triggered events based on a geotechnical index, the factor of safety, which takes into account the slope, the soil effective cohesion and weight, the friction angle, the regolith thickness and the saturated thickness. The stat- urated thickness is represented by the wetness index developed in the TOPMODEL. The topography is represented by a Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN). The factor of safety is computed at each node of the TIN. If the factor of safety is lower than 1, a landslide is intiated at this node. The regolith is then moved downstream. We applied the model to the Fortore basin whose valley cuts the flysch terrain that constitute the framework of the so called "sub-Apennines" chain that is the most eastern part of the Southern Apennines (Italy). We will discuss its value according to its sensitivity to the used parameters and compare it to the actual data available for this basin.

An analytical study on nested flow systems in a Tóthian basin with a periodically changing water table

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Ke-Yu; Jiang, Xiao-Wei; Wang, Xu-Sheng; Wan, Li; Wang, Jun-Zhi; Wang, Heng; Li, Hailong

2018-01-01

Classical understanding on basin-scale groundwater flow patterns is based on Tóth's findings of a single flow system in a unit basin (Tóth, 1962) and nested flow systems in a complex basin (Tóth, 1963), both of which were based on steady state models. Vandenberg (1980) extended Tóth (1962) by deriving a transient solution under a periodically changing water table in a unit basin and examined the flow field distortion under different dimensionless response time, τ∗. Following Vandenberg's (1980) approach, we extended Tóth (1963) by deriving the transient solution under a periodically changing water table in a complex basin and examined the transient behavior of nested flow systems. Due to the effect of specific storage, the flow field is asymmetric with respect to the midline, and the trajectory of internal stagnation points constitutes a non-enclosed loop, whose width decreases when τ∗ decreases. The distribution of the relative magnitude of hydraulic head fluctuation, Δh∗ , is dependent on the horizontal distance away from a divide and the depth below the land surface. In the shallow part, Δh∗ decreases from 1 at the divide to 0 at its neighboring valley under all τ∗, while in the deep part, Δh∗ reaches a threshold, whose value decreases when τ∗ increases. The zones with flowing wells are also found to change periodically. As water table falls, there is a general trend of shrinkage in the area of zones with flowing wells, which has a lag to the declining water table under a large τ∗. Although fluxes have not been assigned in our model, the recharge/discharge flux across the top boundary can be obtained. This study is critical to understand a series of periodically changing hydrogeological phenomena in large-scale basins.

Geochemical evolution of groundwater salinity at basin scale: a case study from Datong basin, Northern China.

PubMed

Wu, Ya; Wang, Yanxin

2014-05-01

A hydrogeochemical investigation using integrated methods of stable isotopes ((18)O, (2)H), (87)Sr/(86)Sr ratios, Cl/Br ratios, chloride-mass balance, mass balance and hydrogeochemical modeling was conducted to interpret the geochemical evolution of groundwater salinity in Datong basin, northern China. The δ(2)H, δ(18)O ratios in precipitation exhibited a local meteoric water line of δ(2)H = 6.4 δ(18)O -5 (R(2) = 0.94), while those in groundwater suggested their meteoric origin in a historically colder climatic regime with a speculated recharge rate of less than 20.5 mm overall per year, in addition to recharge from a component of deep residual ancient lake water enriched with Br. According to the Sr isotope binary mixing model, the mixing of recharges from the Shentou karst springs (24%), the western margins (11%) and the eastern margins (65%) accounts for the groundwater from the deep aquifers of the down-gradient parts in the central basin is a possible mixing mechanism. In Datong, hydrolysis of silicate minerals is the most important hydrogeochemical process responsible for groundwater chemistry, in addition to dissolution of carbonate and evaporites. In the recharge areas, silicate chemical weathering is typically at the bisiallitization stage, while that in the central basin is mostly at the monosiallitization stage with limited evidence of being in equilibrium with gibbsite. Na exchange with bound Ca, Mg prevails at basin scale, and intensifies with groundwater salinity, while Ca, Mg exchange with bound Na locally occurs in the east pluvial and alluvial plains. Although groundwater salinity increases with the progress of water-rock/sediment interactions along the flow path, as a result of carbonate solubility control and continuous evapotranspiration, Na-HCO3 and Na-Cl-SO4 types of water are usually characterized respectively in the deep and the shallow aquifers of an inland basin with a silicate terrain in an arid climatic regime.

How widely applicable is river basin management? An analysis of wastewater management in an arid transboundary case.

PubMed

Dombrowsky, Ines; Almog, Ram; Becker, Nir; Feitelson, Eran; Klawitter, Simone; Lindemann, Stefan; Mutlak, Natalie

2010-05-01

The basin scale has been promoted universally as the optimal management unit that allows for the internalization of all external effects caused by multiple water uses. However, the basin scale has been put forward largely on the basis of experience in temperate zones. Hence whether the basin scale is the best scale for management in other settings remains questionable. To address these questions this paper analyzes the economic viability and the political feasibility of alternative management options in the Kidron/Wadi Nar region. The Kidron/Wadi Nar is a small basin in which wastewater from eastern Jerusalem flows through the desert to the Dead Sea. Various options for managing these wastewater flows were analyzed ex ante on the basis of both a cost benefit and a multi-criteria analysis. The paper finds that due to economies of scale, a pure basin approach is not desirable from a physical and economic perspective. Furthermore, in terms of political feasibility, it seems that the option which prompts the fewest objections from influential stakeholder groups in the two entities under the current asymmetrical political setting is not a basin solution either, but a two plant solution based on an outsourcing arrangement. These findings imply that the river basin management approach can not be considered the best management approach for the arid transboundary case at hand, and hence is not unequivocally universally applicable.

How Widely Applicable is River Basin Management? An Analysis of Wastewater Management in an Arid Transboundary Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dombrowsky, Ines; Almog, Ram; Becker, Nir; Feitelson, Eran; Klawitter, Simone; Lindemann, Stefan; Mutlak, Natalie

2010-05-01

The basin scale has been promoted universally as the optimal management unit that allows for the internalization of all external effects caused by multiple water uses. However, the basin scale has been put forward largely on the basis of experience in temperate zones. Hence whether the basin scale is the best scale for management in other settings remains questionable. To address these questions this paper analyzes the economic viability and the political feasibility of alternative management options in the Kidron/Wadi Nar region. The Kidron/Wadi Nar is a small basin in which wastewater from eastern Jerusalem flows through the desert to the Dead Sea. Various options for managing these wastewater flows were analyzed ex ante on the basis of both a cost benefit and a multi-criteria analysis. The paper finds that due to economies of scale, a pure basin approach is not desirable from a physical and economic perspective. Furthermore, in terms of political feasibility, it seems that the option which prompts the fewest objections from influential stakeholder groups in the two entities under the current asymmetrical political setting is not a basin solution either, but a two plant solution based on an outsourcing arrangement. These findings imply that the river basin management approach can not be considered the best management approach for the arid transboundary case at hand, and hence is not unequivocally universally applicable.

Formation and inversion of extensional ramp-syncline basins with pre-kinematic salt layers. Experimental results and application to Iberian Mesozoic analogues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roma, Maria; Pla, Oriol; Butillé, Mireia; Roca, Eduard; Ferrer, Oriol

2015-04-01

The widespread extensional deformation that took place during Jurassic to Cretaceous times in the Western Europe and north-Atlantic realm resulted in the formation of several rift systems. Some of the basins associated to these rifts show broad syncline-shapes filled by thick sedimentary successions deposited overlying a hyperextended crust (i.e., Parentis, Cameros, Organyà or Columbrets basins in Iberia). The development of these syncline basins has been associated to the slip of low-angle lithospheric-scale extensional faults with ramp/flat geometries. The shape and kinematics of such faults have been usually established using the architecture of syn-kinematic layers and assuming a complete coupling of the hangingwall rocks and a layer parallel flexural slip deformation mechanism. However almost all these basins include pre-kinematic Upper Triassic salt layers which undubtoufully acted as an effective detachment decoupling the structure of sub- and suprasalt units. The presence of this salt is denoted by the growth of salt structures as diapirs or salt walls at the edges of these basins where the overburden was thinner. During latest Cretaceous and Cenozoic these basins were partially inverted and often incorporated into thrust-and-fold belts as the Pyrenees . Contractional deformation resulted in the reactivation of major extensional faults and, above the salt, the squeezing of pre-existent salt structures. The pre-kinematic salt clearly acted again as as a major detachment decoupling the contractional deformation. Using an experimental approach (scaled sand-box models) the aim of our research is threefold: 1) to determine the geometrical features of the hangingwall above a convex upwards ramp of a low angle extensional fault with and without pre-kinematic salt, and consequently; 2) to decipher the role played by a pre-kinematic viscous layer, such as salt, in the development of these syncline basins; and 3) to characterize the contractional deformation that took place in them during a later contractional inversion. To achieve this goal an experimental program including seven different sand-box models has been carried out. The experimental results show that fault shape controls the geometry and the kinematic evolution of the ramp synclines formed on the hangingwall during extension and subsequent inversion. Regarding this, the experiments also demonstrate that the presence of a viscous layer changed significantly the kinematic of the basin developing two clearly different structural styles above and below the polymer. The kinematic of this basin during extension change dramatically when the silicone layer was depleted with the formation of primary welds. Since this moment model's kinematic becomes similar to the models without silicone. During the inversion, models show that low shortening produced the contractional reactivation of the major fault arched and uplifted the basin. In this scenario, if salt is rather continuous, took place an incipient reactivation of the silicone layer as a contractional detachment. By contrast, high shortening produces the total inversion of the detachment faults and the pop-up of the extensional basin. Finally, models are compared with different natural analogues from Iberia validating previous published interpretations or proposing new interpretations inferring the geometry of the major fault, specially if the presence of a salt interlayer in the deformed rocks is known or suspected.

Assessing variable rate nitrogen fertilizer strategies within an extensively instrument field site using the MicroBasin model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, N. K.; Maureira, F.; Yourek, M. A.; Brooks, E. S.; Stockle, C. O.

2014-12-01

The current use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers in agriculture has many negative environmental and economic costs, necessitating improved nitrogen management. In the highly heterogeneous landscape of the Palouse region in eastern Washington and northern Idaho, crop nitrogen needs vary widely within a field. Site-specific nitrogen management is a promising strategy to reduce excess nitrogen lost to the environment while maintaining current yields by matching crop needs with inputs. This study used in-situ hydrologic, nutrient, and crop yield data from a heavily instrumented field site in the high precipitation zone of the wheat-producing Palouse region to assess the performance of the MicroBasin model. MicroBasin is a high-resolution watershed-scale ecohydrologic model with nutrient cycling and cropping algorithms based on the CropSyst model. Detailed soil mapping conducted at the site was used to parameterize the model and the model outputs were evaluated with observed measurements. The calibrated MicroBasin model was then used to evaluate the impact of various nitrogen management strategies on crop yield and nitrate losses. The strategies include uniform application as well as delineating the field into multiple zones of varying nitrogen fertilizer rates to optimize nitrogen use efficiency. We present how coupled modeling and in-situ data sets can inform agricultural management and policy to encourage improved nitrogen management.

Groundwater availability of the Denver Basin aquifer system, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paschke, Suzanne

2011-01-01

The Denver Basin aquifer system is a critical water resource for growing municipal, industrial, and domestic uses along the semiarid Front Range urban corridor of Colorado. The confined bedrock aquifer system is located along the eastern edge of the Rocky Mountain Front Range where the mountains meet the Great Plains physiographic province. Continued population growth and the resulting need for additional water supplies in the Denver Basin and throughout the western United States emphasize the need to continually monitor and reassess the availability of groundwater resources. In 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated large-scale regional studies to provide updated groundwater-availability assessments of important principal aquifers across the United States, including the Denver Basin. This study of the Denver Basin aquifer system evaluates the hydrologic effects of continued pumping and documents an updated groundwater flow model useful for appraisal of hydrologic conditions.

Validation of A Global Hydrological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doell, P.; Lehner, B.; Kaspar, F.; Vassolo, S.

Freshwater availability has been recognized as a global issue, and its consistent quan- tification not only in individual river basins but also at the global scale is required to support the sustainable use of water. The Global Hydrology Model WGHM, which is a submodel of the global water use and availability model WaterGAP 2, computes sur- face runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.5. WGHM is based on the best global data sets currently available, including a newly developed drainage direction map and a data set of wetlands, lakes and reservoirs. It calculates both natural and actual discharge by simulating the reduction of river discharge by human water consumption (as computed by the water use submodel of WaterGAP 2). WGHM is calibrated against observed discharge at 724 gauging sta- tions (representing about 50% of the global land area) by adjusting a parameter of the soil water balance. It not only computes the long-term average water resources but also water availability indicators that take into account the interannual and seasonal variability of runoff and discharge. The reliability of the model results is assessed by comparing observed and simulated discharges at the calibration stations and at se- lected other stations. We conclude that reliable results can be obtained for basins of more than 20,000 km2. In particular, the 90% reliable monthly discharge is simu- lated well. However, there is the tendency that semi-arid and arid basins are modeled less satisfactorily than humid ones, which is partially due to neglecting river channel losses and evaporation of runoff from small ephemeral ponds in the model. Also, the hydrology of highly developed basins with large artificial storages, basin transfers and irrigation schemes cannot be simulated well. The seasonality of discharge in snow- dominated basins is overestimated by WGHM, and if the snow-dominated basin is uncalibrated, discharge is likely to be underestimated due to the precipitation mea- surement errors. Even though the explicit modeling of wetlands and lakes leads to a much improved modeling of both the vertical water balance and the lateral transport of water, not enough information is included in WGHM to accurately capture the hy- drology of these water bodies. Certainly, the reliability of model results is highest at the locations at which WGHM was calibrated. The validation indicates that reliability for cells inside calibrated basins is satisfactory if the basin is relatively homogeneous. Analyses of the few available stations outside of calibrated basins indicate a reason- ably high model reliability, particularly in humid regions.

Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River

DOE PAGES

Bennett, Katrina E.; Bohn, Theodore J.; Solander, Kurt; ...

2018-01-26

Accelerated climate change and associated forest disturbances in the southwestern USA are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources. Few studies have quantified the impact of both climate change and land cover disturbances on water balances on the basin scale, and none on the regional scale. In this work, we evaluate the impacts of forest disturbances and climate change on a headwater basin to the Colorado River, the San Juan River watershed, using a robustly calibrated (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency 0.76) hydrologic model run with updated formulations that improve estimates of evapotranspiration for semi-arid regions. Our results show that futuremore » disturbances will have a substantial impact on streamflow with implications for water resource management. Our findings are in contradiction with conventional thinking that forest disturbances reduce evapotranspiration and increase streamflow. In this study, annual average regional streamflow under the coupled climate–disturbance scenarios is at least 6–11 % lower than those scenarios accounting for climate change alone; for forested zones of the San Juan River basin, streamflow is 15–21 % lower. The monthly signals of altered streamflow point to an emergent streamflow pattern related to changes in forests of the disturbed systems. Exacerbated reductions of mean and low flows under disturbance scenarios indicate a high risk of low water availability for forested headwater systems of the Colorado River basin. Furthermore, these findings also indicate that explicit representation of land cover disturbances is required in modeling efforts that consider the impact of climate change on water resources.« less

Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennett, Katrina E.; Bohn, Theodore J.; Solander, Kurt

Accelerated climate change and associated forest disturbances in the southwestern USA are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources. Few studies have quantified the impact of both climate change and land cover disturbances on water balances on the basin scale, and none on the regional scale. In this work, we evaluate the impacts of forest disturbances and climate change on a headwater basin to the Colorado River, the San Juan River watershed, using a robustly calibrated (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency 0.76) hydrologic model run with updated formulations that improve estimates of evapotranspiration for semi-arid regions. Our results show that futuremore » disturbances will have a substantial impact on streamflow with implications for water resource management. Our findings are in contradiction with conventional thinking that forest disturbances reduce evapotranspiration and increase streamflow. In this study, annual average regional streamflow under the coupled climate–disturbance scenarios is at least 6–11 % lower than those scenarios accounting for climate change alone; for forested zones of the San Juan River basin, streamflow is 15–21 % lower. The monthly signals of altered streamflow point to an emergent streamflow pattern related to changes in forests of the disturbed systems. Exacerbated reductions of mean and low flows under disturbance scenarios indicate a high risk of low water availability for forested headwater systems of the Colorado River basin. Furthermore, these findings also indicate that explicit representation of land cover disturbances is required in modeling efforts that consider the impact of climate change on water resources.« less

Combined use of local and global hydrometeorological data with regional and global hydrological models in the Magdalena - Cauca river basin, Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, Erasmo; Sanchez, Ines; Duque, Nicolas; Lopez, Patricia; Kaune, Alexander; Werner, Micha; Arboleda, Pedro

2017-04-01

The Magdalena Cauca Macrobasin (MCMB) in Colombia, with an area of about 257,000 km2, is the largest and most important water resources system in the country. With almost 80% of the Colombian population (46 million people) settled in the basin, it is the main source of water for demands including human consumption, agriculture, hydropower generation, industrial activities and ecosystems. Despite its importance, the basin has witnessed enormous changes in land-cover and extensive deforestation during the last three decades. To make things more complicated, the MCMB currently lacks a set of tools to support planning and decision making processes at scale of the whole watershed. Considering this, the MCMB has been selected as one of the six different regional case studies in the eartH2Observe research project, in which hydrological and meteorological reanalysis products are being validated for the period 1980-2012. The combined use of the hydrological and meteorological reanalysis data, with local hydrometeorological data (precipitation, temperature and streamflow) provided by the National Hydrometeorological Agency (IDEAM), has given us the opportunity to implement and test three hydrological models (VIC, WFLOW and a Water Balance Model based on the Budyko framework) at the basin scale. Additionally, results from the global models in the eartH2Observe hydrological reanalysis have been used to evaluate their performance against the observed streamflow data. This paper discusses the comparison between streamflow observations and simulations from the global hydrological models forced with the WFDEI data, and regional models forced with a combination of observed and meteorological reanalysis data, in the whole domain of the MCMB. For the three regional models analysed results show good performances for some sub-basins and poor performances for others. This can be due to the smoothing of the precipitation fields, interpolated from point daily rainfall data, the effect of horizontal precipitation (not included in the models) and weaknesses in the models structures; for example the poor performance of the VIC model in base flow dominated basins. In order to improve these simulations a strategy based on a hydrological model ensemble is currently being developed in the case study. Results from the global models, show that these consistently tend to overestimate runoff. This may be due to the coarse resolution used (50 km), biases in the ERA-Interim precipitation forcing, and the different partitioning within the global models of the precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff. It is expected that within the Tier II hydrological reanalysis, where the models will produce outputs at 25 km resolution, some improvements may be identified.

Field Operations For The "Intelligent River" Observation System: A Basin-wide Water Quality Observation System In The Savannah River Basin And Platform Supporting Related Diverse Initiatives.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutton, A.; Koons, M.; O'Brien-Gayes, P.; Moorer, R.; Hallstrom, J.; Post, C.; Gayes, P. T.

2017-12-01

The Intelligent River (IR) initiative is an NSF sponsored study developing new data management technology for a range of basin-scale applications. The technology developed by Florida Atlantic and Clemson University established a network of real-time reporting water quality sondes; from the mountains to the estuary of the Savannah River basin. Coastal Carolina University led the field operations campaign. Ancillary studies, student projects and initiatives benefitted from the associated instrumentation, infrastructure and operational support of the IR program. This provided a vehicle for students to participate in fieldwork across the watershed and pursue individual interests. Student projects included: 1) a Multibeam sonar survey investigating channel morphology in the area of an IR sensor station and 2) field tests of developing techniques for acquiring and assimilating flood velocity data into model systems associated with a separate NSF Rapid award. The multibeam survey within the lower Savannah basin exhibited a range of complexity in bathymetry, bedforms and bottom habitat in the vicinity of one of the water quality stations. The complex morphology and bottom habitat reflect complex flow patterns, localized areas of depositional and erosive tendencies providing a valuable context for considering point-source water quality time series. Micro- Lagrangian drifters developed by ISENSE at Florida Atlantic University, a sled mounted ADCP, and particle tracking from imagery collected by a photogrammetric drone were tested and used to develop methodology for establishing velocity, direction and discharge levels to validate, initialize and assimilate data into advance models systems during future flood events. The prospect of expanding wide scale observing systems can serve as a platform to integrate small and large-scale cooperative studies across disciplines as well as basic and applied research interests. Such initiatives provide opportunities for embedded education and experience for students that add to the understanding of broad integrated complex systems.

Fault-Related CO 2 Degassing, Geothermics, and Fluid Flow in Southern California Basins--Physiochemical Evidence and Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garven, Grant

2015-08-11

Our studies have had an important impact on societal issues. Experimental and field observations show that CO 2 degassing, such as might occur from stored CO 2 reservoir gas, can result in significant stable isotopic disequilibrium. In the offshore South Ellwood field of the Santa Barbara channel, we show how oil production has reduced natural seep rates in the area, thereby reducing greenhouse gases. Permeability is calculated to be ~20-30 millidarcys for km-scale fault-focused fluid flow, using changes in natural gas seepage rates from well production, and poroelastic changes in formation pore-water pressure. In the Los Angeles (LA) basin, ourmore » characterization of formation water chemistry, including stable isotopic studies, allows the distinction between deep and shallow formations waters. Our multiphase computational-based modeling of petroleum migration demonstrates the important role of major faults on geological-scale fluid migration in the LA basin, and show how petroleum was dammed up against the Newport-Inglewood fault zone in a “geologically fast” interval of time (less than 0.5 million years). Furthermore, these fluid studies also will allow evaluation of potential cross-formational mixing of formation fluids. Lastly, our new study of helium isotopes in the LA basin shows a significant leakage of mantle helium along the Newport Inglewood fault zone (NIFZ), at flow rates up to 2 cm/yr. Crustal-scale fault permeability (~60 microdarcys) and advective versus conductive heat transport rates have been estimated using the observed helium isotopic data. The NIFZ is an important deep-seated fault that may crosscut a proposed basin decollement fault in this heavily populated area, and appears to allow seepage of helium from the mantle sources about 30 km beneath Los Angeles. The helium study has been widely cited in recent weeks by the news media, both in radio and on numerous web sites.« less

Structural heritage, reactivation and distribution of fault and fracture network in a rifting context: Case study of the western shoulder of the Upper Rhine Graben

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertrand, Lionel; Jusseaume, Jessie; Géraud, Yves; Diraison, Marc; Damy, Pierre-Clément; Navelot, Vivien; Haffen, Sébastien

2018-03-01

In fractured reservoirs in the basement of extensional basins, fault and fracture parameters like density, spacing and length distribution are key properties for modelling and prediction of reservoir properties and fluids flow. As only large faults are detectable using basin-scale geophysical investigations, these fine-scale parameters need to be inferred from faults and fractures in analogous rocks at the outcrop. In this study, we use the western shoulder of the Upper Rhine Graben as an outcropping analogue of several deep borehole projects in the basement of the graben. Geological regional data, DTM (Digital Terrain Model) mapping and outcrop studies with scanlines are used to determine the spatial arrangement of the faults from the regional to the reservoir scale. The data shows that: 1) The fault network can be hierarchized in three different orders of scale and structural blocks with a characteristic structuration. This is consistent with other basement rocks studies in other rifting system allowing the extrapolation of the important parameters for modelling. 2) In the structural blocks, the fracture network linked to the faults is linked to the interplay between rock facies variation linked to the rock emplacement and the rifting event.

Flow regulation in the Swiss Alps: a river network modelling approach to investigate the impacts on bed load and grain size distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, A.; Molnar, P.; Schmitt, R. J. P.

2017-12-01

The grain size distribution (GSD) of river bed sediment results from the long term balance between transport capacity and sediment supply. Changes in climate and human activities may alter the spatial distribution of transport capacity and sediment supply along channels and hence impact local bedload transport and GSD. The effects of changed flow are not easily inferable due the non-linear, threshold-based nature of the relation between discharge and sediment mobilization, and the network-scale control on local sediment supply. We present a network-scale model for fractional sediment transport to quantify the impact of hydropower (HP) operations on river network GSD. We represent the river network as a series of connected links for which we extract the geometric characteristics from satellite images and a digital elevation model. We assign surface roughness based on the channel bed GSD. Bed shear stress is estimated at link-scale under the assumptions of rectangular prismatic cross sections and normal flow. The mass balance between sediment supply and transport capacity, computed with the Wilcock and Crowe model, determines transport rates of multiple grain size classes and the resulting GSD. We apply the model to the upper Rhone basin, a large Alpine basin in Switzerland. Since 1960s, changed flow conditions due to HP operations and sediment storage behind dams have potentially altered the sediment transport of the basin. However, little is known on the magnitude and spatial distribution of these changes. We force the model with time series of daily discharge derived with a spatially distributed hydrological model for pre and post HP scenarios. We initialize GSD under the assumption that coarse grains (d90) are mobilized only during mean annual maximum flows, and on the basis of ratios between d90 and characteristic diameters estimated from field measurements. Results show that effects of flow regulation vary significantly in space and in time and are grain size dependent. HP operations led to an overall reduction of sediment transport at network scale, especially in summer and for coarser grains, leading to a general coarsening of the river bed sediments at the upstream reaches. The model allows investigating the impact of modified HP operations and climate change projections on sediment dynamics at the network scale.

Mechanisms of intracratonic and rift basin formation: Insights from Canning Basin, northwest Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bender, Andre Adriano

2000-10-01

The Canning basin was investigated in order to determine the mechanisms responsible for its initiation and development. The basement morphology, determined using magnetic and gravity inversion techniques, was used to map the distribution, amplitude and subsidence history of the basin. The sag development of the Canning basin is hypothesized to be a consequence of a major late Proterozoic thermal event that induced broad-scale uplift, extrusion of tholeiitic basalt, and substantial crustal erosion. The development of the Canning basin is consistent with removal of up to 11 km of crustal rocks, followed by isostatic re-adjustment during the cooling of the lithosphere. Earlier models that employed both lower crustal metamorphism and erosion are considered inappropriate mechanisms for intracratonic basin formation because this work has shown that their effects are mutually exclusive. The time scale for the metamorphic-related subsidence is typically short (<10 m.y.) and the maximum subsidence is small (<4 km) compared to the long subsidence (ca. 200 m.y.) and maximum depths (6--7 km) recorded in the Canning basin. Observed amplitudes and rates of basement subsidence are compatible with a thermal anomaly that began to dissipate in the early Cambrian and lasted until the Permian. Punctuating the long-lived intracratonic basin subsidence is a series of extensional pulses that in Silurian to Carboniferous/Permian time led to the development of several prominent normal faults in the northeastern portion of the Canning basin (Fitzroy graben). Stratigraphic and structural data and section-balancing techniques have helped to elucidate the geometry and evolution of the basin-bounding fault of the Fitzroy graben. The fault is listric, with a dip that decreases from approximately 50° at the surface to 20° at a depth of 20 km, and with an estimated horizontal offset of 32--41 km. The southern margin of the Fitzroy graben was tilted, truncated, and onlapped from the south, consistent with the flexural rebound of a lithosphere with an elastic thickness of ca. 30 km.

Watershed-scale response to climate change through the twenty-first century for selected basins across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven; Ward-Garrison, Christian D.

2011-01-01

The hydrologic response of different climate-change emission scenarios for the twenty-first century were evaluated in 14 basins from different hydroclimatic regions across the United States using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a process-based, distributed-parameter watershed model. This study involves four major steps: 1) setup and calibration of the PRMS model in 14 basins across the United States by local U.S. Geological Survey personnel; 2) statistical downscaling of the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 climate-change emission scenarios to create PRMS input files that reflect these emission scenarios; 3) run PRMS for the climate-change emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and 4) evaluation of the PRMS output.This paper presents an overview of this project, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results. A key finding is that the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the United States to potential climate change may be very different, depending on the dominant physical processes of that particular region. Also considered is the tremendous amount of uncertainty present in the climate emission scenarios and how this uncertainty propagates through the hydrologic simulations. This paper concludes with a discussion of the lessons learned and potential for future work.

Spatial and temporal connections in groundwater contribution to evaporation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, A.; Karssenberg, D.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2011-08-01

In climate models, lateral terrestrial water fluxes are usually neglected. We estimated the contribution of vertical and lateral groundwater fluxes to the land surface water budget at a subcontinental scale, by modeling convergence of groundwater and surfacewater fluxes. We present a hydrological model of the entire Danube Basin at 5 km resolution, and use it to show the importance of groundwater for the surface climate. Results show that the contribution of groundwater to evaporation is significant, and can locally be higher than 30 % in summer. We demonstrate through the same model that this contribution also has important temporal characteristics. A wet episode can influence groundwater contribution to summer evaporation for several years afterwards. This indicates that modeling groundwater flow has the potential to augment the multi-year memory of climate models. We also show that the groundwater contribution to evaporation is local by presenting the groundwater travel times and the magnitude of groundwater convergence. Throughout the Danube Basin the lateral fluxes of groundwater are negligible when modeling at this scale and resolution. This suggests that groundwater can be adequately added in land surface models by including a lower closed groundwater reservoir of sufficient size with two-way interaction with surface water and the overlying soil layers.

Bridging the gap between small and large scale sediment budgets? - A scaling challenge in the Upper Rhone Basin, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoch, Anna; Blöthe, Jan; Hoffmann, Thomas; Schrott, Lothar

2016-04-01

A large number of sediment budgets have been compiled on different temporal and spatial scales in alpine regions. Detailed sediment budgets based on the quantification of a number of sediment storages (e.g. talus cones, moraine deposits) exist only for a few small scale drainage basins (up to 10² km²). In contrast, large scale sediment budgets (> 10³ km²) consider only long term sediment sinks such as valley fills and lakes. Until now, these studies often neglect small scale sediment storages in the headwaters. However, the significance of these sediment storages have been reported. A quantitative verification whether headwaters function as sediment source regions is lacking. Despite substantial transport energy in mountain environments due to steep gradients and high relief, sediment flux in large river systems is frequently disconnected from alpine headwaters. This leads to significant storage of coarse-grained sediment along the flow path from rockwall source regions to large sedimentary sinks in major alpine valleys. To improve the knowledge on sediment budgets in large scale alpine catchments and to bridge the gap between small and large scale sediment budgets, we apply a multi-method approach comprising investigations on different spatial scales in the Upper Rhone Basin (URB). The URB is the largest inneralpine basin in the European Alps with a size of > 5400 km². It is a closed system with Lake Geneva acting as an ultimate sediment sink for suspended and clastic sediment. We examine the spatial pattern and volumes of sediment storages as well as the morphometry on the local and catchment-wide scale. We mapped sediment storages and bedrock in five sub-regions of the study area (Goms, Lötschen valley, Val d'Illiez, Vallée de la Liène, Turtmann valley) in the field and from high-resolution remote sensing imagery to investigate the spatial distribution of different sediment storage types (e.g. talus deposits, debris flow cones, alluvial fans). These sub-regions cover all three litho-tectonic units of the URB (Helvetic nappes, Penninic nappes, External massifs) and different catchment sizes to capture the inherent variability. Different parameters characterizing topography, surface characteristics, and vegetation cover are analyzed for each storage type. The data is then used in geostatistical models (PCA, stepwise logistic regression) to predict the spatial distribution of sediment storage for the whole URB. We further conduct morphometric analyses of the URB to gain information on the varying degree of glacial imprint and postglacial landscape evolution and their control on the spatial distribution of sediment storage in a large scale drainage basin. Geophysical methods (ground penetrating radar and electrical resistivity tomography) are applied on different sediment storage types on the local scale to estimate mean thicknesses. Additional data from published studies are used to complement our dataset. We integrate the local data in the statistical model on the spatial distribution of sediment storages for the whole URB. Hence, we can extrapolate the stored sediment volumes to the regional scale in order to bridge the gap between small and large scale studies.

Application of the Basin Characterization Model to Estimate In-Place Recharge and Runoff Potential in the Basin and Range Carbonate-Rock Aquifer System, White Pine County, Nevada, and Adjacent Areas in Nevada and Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Alan L.; Flint, Lorraine E.

2007-01-01

A regional-scale water-balance model was used to estimate recharge and runoff potential and support U.S. Geological Survey efforts to develop a better understanding of water availability for the Basin and Range carbonate-rock aquifer system (BARCAS) study in White Pine County, Nevada, and adjacent areas in Nevada and Utah. The water-balance model, or Basin Characterization Model (BCM), was used to estimate regional ground-water recharge for the 13 hydrographic areas in the study area. The BCM calculates recharge by using a distributed-parameter, water-balance method and monthly climatic boundary conditions. The BCM requires geographic information system coverages of soil, geology, and topographic information with monthly time-varying climatic conditions of air temperature and precipitation. Potential evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, and snowmelt are distributed spatially with process models. When combined with surface properties of soil-water storage and saturated hydraulic conductivity of bedrock and alluvium, the potential water available for in-place recharge and runoff is calculated using monthly time steps using a grid scale of 866 feet (270 meters). The BCM was used with monthly climatic inputs from 1970 to 2004, and results were averaged to provide an estimate of the average annual recharge for the BARCAS study area. The model estimates 526,000 acre-feet of potential in-place recharge and approximately 398,000 acre-feet of potential runoff. Assuming 15 percent of the runoff becomes recharge, the model estimates average annual ground-water recharge for the BARCAS area of about 586,000 acre-feet. When precipitation is extrapolated to the long-term climatic record (1895-2006), average annual recharge is estimated to be 530,000 acre-feet, or about 9 percent less than the recharge estimated for 1970-2004.

Geothermal heating in the Panama Basin and its impact on water mass transformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banyte, D.; Morales Maqueda, M. A.; Hobbs, R. W.; Megann, A.; Smeed, D.

2017-12-01

Geothermal heating is a driving force of abyssal water transformation. To quantify its impact at the basin scale, a hydrographic survey of the Panama Basin was carried out in 2014-2015 as part of the international project OSCAR (Oceanographic and Seismic Characterisation of heat dissipation and alteration by hydrothermal fluids at an Axial Ridge). The study shows that about half of the water entering the basin, which is connected to the Pacific Ocean only through the a narrow passage part of the Ecuador Trench, is converted to lighter water within just 200 km downstream of the passage. Of the resulting water, a staggering 90% is transformed by geothermal heating inside the basin, welling up into the ocean interior from a bottom boundary layer (BBL) that can be up to 1000 m thick. The geothermal forcing leaves an imprint in temperature-salinity properties hundreds of meters above the thick BBL. We present a conceptual model of the abyssal water transformation in the basin that incorporates these processes.

Sediment budget variation at watershed scale due to anthropogenic pressures, and its relationship to coastal erosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aiello, Antonello; Adamo, Maria; Canora, Filomena

2014-05-01

The transfer of sediments from hydrographic basins towards the coast is a significant pathway of material transfer on Earth. In sedimentary environment, the main portion of sediment that enters the coastal areas is derived originally from erosion in the coastal watersheds. Extensive anthropogenic pressures carried out within coastal basins have long shown negative impacts on littoral environments. In fluvial systems, sediments trapped behind dams and in-stream gravel mining cause the reduction in sediment supply to the coast. Along the Jonian littoral of the Basilicata Region (southern Italy), natural coastal processes have been severely disrupted since the second half of the 20th century as a result of riverbed sand and gravel mining and dam construction, when economic advantages were measured in terms of the development of infrastructure, water storage, and hydropower production for the agricultural, industrial and socio-economic development of the area. Particularly, the large numbers of dams and impoundments that have been built in the hydrographic basins have led a signi?cant reduction on river sediment loads. As a result, the Jonian littoral is experiencing a catalysed erosion phenomenon. In order to increase understanding of the morpho-dynamics of the Jonian littoral environment and more fully appreciate the amount of coastal erosion, an evaluation of the sediment budget change due to dam construction within the hydrographic basins of the Basilicata Region needs to be explored. Since quantitative data on decadal trends in river sediment supply before and after dam construction are lacking, as well as updated dam silting values, river basin assessment of the spatial patterns and estimated amount of sediment erosion and deposition are important in evaluating changes in the sediment budget. As coastal areas are being affected by an increasing number of population and socio-economic activities, the amount of sediment deficit at the littoral can permit to forecast coastline fluctuations caused by such anthropogenic interventions. These are valuable information for both the management of and development of future plans for coastal environments and for reducing exposure risk to coastal erosion. The purpose of this study was to compare and to evaluate the suitability of the RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation), RUSLE 3D and USPED (Unit Stream Power-based Erosion Deposition) models in assessing the sediment budget variation at watershed scale. In order to assess the rate of net soil erosion, the three models were applied to the Bradano river basin and to the sub-basin subtended by the San Giuliano Dam. To this end, digital terrain model, products derived from satellite remote sensing (multi-temporal Landsat imagery), soil texture maps and ancillary data were integrated and processed in a GIS. To test the models, the computed soil erosion rates were integrated over the San Giuliano sub-basin surface, and compared with the dam silting value provided by an interregional authority responsible for its management. The three models have proven to be effective in quantifying the soil erosion at watershed scale.

Reinforcement Learning Multi-Agent Modeling of Decision-Making Agents for the Study of Transboundary Surface Water Conflicts with Application to the Syr Darya River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riegels, N.; Siegfried, T.; Pereira Cardenal, S. J.; Jensen, R. A.; Bauer-Gottwein, P.

2008-12-01

In most economics--driven approaches to optimizing water use at the river basin scale, the system is modelled deterministically with the goal of maximizing overall benefits. However, actual operation and allocation decisions must be made under hydrologic and economic uncertainty. In addition, river basins often cross political boundaries, and different states may not be motivated to cooperate so as to maximize basin- scale benefits. Even within states, competing agents such as irrigation districts, municipal water agencies, and large industrial users may not have incentives to cooperate to realize efficiency gains identified in basin- level studies. More traditional simulation--optimization approaches assume pre-commitment by individual agents and stakeholders and unconditional compliance on each side. While this can help determine attainable gains and tradeoffs from efficient management, such hardwired policies do not account for dynamic feedback between agents themselves or between agents and their environments (e.g. due to climate change etc.). In reality however, we are dealing with an out-of-equilibrium multi-agent system, where there is neither global knowledge nor global control, but rather continuous strategic interaction between decision making agents. Based on the theory of stochastic games, we present a computational framework that allows for studying the dynamic feedback between decision--making agents themselves and an inherently uncertain environment in a spatially and temporally distributed manner. Agents with decision-making control over water allocation such as countries, irrigation districts, and municipalities are represented by reinforcement learning agents and coupled to a detailed hydrologic--economic model. This approach emphasizes learning by agents from their continuous interaction with other agents and the environment. It provides a convenient framework for the solution of the problem of dynamic decision-making in a mixed cooperative / non-cooperative environment with which different institutional setups and incentive systems can be studied so to identify reasonable ways to reach desirable, Pareto--optimal allocation outcomes. Preliminary results from an application to the Syr Darya river basin in Central Asia will be presented and discussed. The Syr Darya River is a classic example of a transboundary river basin in which basin-wide efficiency gains identified in optimization studies have not been sufficient to induce cooperative management of the river by the riparian states.

Basin-scale assessment of the land surface energy budget in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational and research NLDAS-2 systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Youlong; Cosgrove, Brian A.; Mitchell, Kenneth E.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Ek, Michael B.; Kumar, Sujay; Mocko, David; Wei, Helin

2016-01-01

This paper compares the annual and monthly components of the simulated energy budget from the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 (NLDAS-2) with reference products over the domains of the 12 River Forecast Centers (RFCs) of the continental United States (CONUS). The simulations are calculated from both operational and research versions of NLDAS-2. The reference radiation components are obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Surface Radiation Budget product. The reference sensible and latent heat fluxes are obtained from a multitree ensemble method applied to gridded FLUXNET data from the Max Planck Institute, Germany. As these references are obtained from different data sources, they cannot fully close the energy budget, although the range of closure error is less than 15% for mean annual results. The analysis here demonstrates the usefulness of basin-scale surface energy budget analysis for evaluating model skill and deficiencies. The operational (i.e., Noah, Mosaic, and VIC) and research (i.e., Noah-I and VIC4.0.5) NLDAS-2 land surface models exhibit similarities and differences in depicting basin-averaged energy components. For example, the energy components of the five models have similar seasonal cycles, but with different magnitudes. Generally, Noah and VIC overestimate (underestimate) sensible (latent) heat flux over several RFCs of the eastern CONUS. In contrast, Mosaic underestimates (overestimates) sensible (latent) heat flux over almost all 12 RFCs. The research Noah-I and VIC4.0.5 versions show moderate-to-large improvements (basin and model dependent) relative to their operational versions, which indicates likely pathways for future improvements in the operational NLDAS-2 system.

Understanding multiple stressors in a Mediterranean basin: Combined effects of land use, water scarcity and nutrient enrichment.

PubMed

Segurado, Pedro; Almeida, Carina; Neves, Ramiro; Ferreira, Maria Teresa; Branco, Paulo

2018-05-15

River basins are extremely complex hierarchical and directional systems that are affected by a multitude of interacting stressors. This complexity hampers effective management and conservation planning to be effectively implemented, especially under climate change. The objective of this work is to provide a wide scale approach to basin management by interpreting the effect of isolated and interacting factors in several biotic elements (fish, macroinvertebrates, phytobenthos and macrophytes). For that, a case study in the Sorraia basin (Central Portugal), a Mediterranean system mainly facing water scarcity and diffuse pollution problems, was chosen. To develop the proposed framework, a combination of process-based modelling to simulate hydrological and nutrient enrichment stressors and empirical modelling to relate these stressors - along with land use and natural background - with biotic indicators, was applied. Biotic indicators based on ecological quality ratios from WFD biomonitoring data were used as response variables. Temperature, river slope, % of agriculture in the upstream catchment and total N were the variables more frequently ranked as the most relevant. Both the two significant interactions found between single hydrological and nutrient enrichment stressors indicated antagonistic effects. This study demonstrates the potentialities of coupling process-based modelling with empirical modelling within a single framework, allowing relationships among different ecosystem states to be hierarchized, interpreted and predicted at multiple spatial and temporal scales. It also demonstrates how isolated and interacting stressors can have a different impact on biotic quality. When performing conservation or management plans, the stressor hierarchy should be considered as a way of prioritizing actions in a cost-effective perspective. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Basin-Scale Assessment of the Land Surface Energy Budget in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Operational and Research NLDAS-2 Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xia, Youlong; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Cosgrove, Brian A.; Mitchell, Kenneth E.; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Ek, Michael B.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Mocko, David M.; Wei, Helin

2015-01-01

This paper compares the annual and monthly components of the simulated energy budget from the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 (NLDAS-2) with reference products over the domains of the 12 River Forecast Centers (RFCs) of the continental United States (CONUS). The simulations are calculated from both operational and research versions of NLDAS-2. The reference radiation components are obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Surface Radiation Budget product. The reference sensible and latent heat fluxes are obtained from a multitree ensemble method applied to gridded FLUXNET data from the Max Planck Institute, Germany. As these references are obtained from different data sources, they cannot fully close the energy budget, although the range of closure error is less than 15%formean annual results. The analysis here demonstrates the usefulness of basin-scale surface energy budget analysis for evaluating model skill and deficiencies. The operational (i.e., Noah, Mosaic, and VIC) and research (i.e., Noah-I and VIC4.0.5) NLDAS-2 land surface models exhibit similarities and differences in depicting basin-averaged energy components. For example, the energy components of the five models have similar seasonal cycles, but with different magnitudes. Generally, Noah and VIC overestimate (underestimate) sensible (latent) heat flux over several RFCs of the eastern CONUS. In contrast, Mosaic underestimates (overestimates) sensible (latent) heat flux over almost all 12 RFCs. The research Noah-I and VIC4.0.5 versions show moderate-to-large improvements (basin and model dependent) relative to their operational versions, which indicates likely pathways for future improvements in the operational NLDAS-2 system.

Snow depth spatial structure from hillslope to basin scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deems, J. S.

2017-12-01

Knowledge of spatial patterns of snow accumulation is required for understanding the hydrology, climatology, and ecology of mountain regions. Spatial structure in snow accumulation patterns changes with the scale of observation, a feature that has been characterized using fractal dimensions calculated from lidar-derived snow depth maps: fractal scaling structure at short length scales, with a `scale break' transition to more stochastic patterns at longer separation distances. Previous work has shown that this fractal structure of snow depth distributions differs between sites with different vegetation and terrain characteristics. Forested areas showed a transition to a nearly random spatial distribution at a much shorter lag distance than do unforested sites, enabling a statistical characterization. Alpine areas, however, showed strong spatial structure for a much wider scale range, and were the source of the dominant spatial pattern observable over a wider area. These spatial structure characteristics suggest that the choice of measurement or model resolution (satellite sensor, DEM, field survey point spacing, etc.) will strongly affect the estimates of snow volume or mass, as well as the magnitude of spatial variability. These prior efforts used data sets that were high resolution ( 1 m laser point spacing) but of limited extent ( 1 km2), constraining detection of scale features such as fractal dimension or scale breaks to areas of relatively similar characteristics and to lag distances of under 500 m. New datasets available from the NASA JPL Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) provide similar resolution but over large areas, enabling assessment of snow spatial structure across an entire watershed, or in similar vegetation or physiography but in different parts of the basin. Additionally, the multi-year ASO time series allows an investigation into the temporal stability of these scale characteristics, within a single snow season and between seasons of strongly varying accumulation totals and patterns. This presentation will explore initial results from this study, using data from the Tuolumne River Basin in California, USA. Fractal scaling characteristics derived from ASO lidar snow depth measurements are examined at the basin scale, as well as in varying topographic and forest cover environments.

Effective use of integrated hydrological models in basin-scale water resources management: surrogate modeling approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Y.; Wu, B.; Wu, X.

2015-12-01

Integrated hydrological models (IHMs) consider surface water and subsurface water as a unified system, and have been widely adopted in basin-scale water resources studies. However, due to IHMs' mathematical complexity and high computational cost, it is difficult to implement them in an iterative model evaluation process (e.g., Monte Carlo Simulation, simulation-optimization analysis, etc.), which diminishes their applicability for supporting decision-making in real-world situations. Our studies investigated how to effectively use complex IHMs to address real-world water issues via surrogate modeling. Three surrogate modeling approaches were considered, including 1) DYCORS (DYnamic COordinate search using Response Surface models), a well-established response surface-based optimization algorithm; 2) SOIM (Surrogate-based Optimization for Integrated surface water-groundwater Modeling), a response surface-based optimization algorithm that we developed specifically for IHMs; and 3) Probabilistic Collocation Method (PCM), a stochastic response surface approach. Our investigation was based on a modeling case study in the Heihe River Basin (HRB), China's second largest endorheic river basin. The GSFLOW (Coupled Ground-Water and Surface-Water Flow Model) model was employed. Two decision problems were discussed. One is to optimize, both in time and in space, the conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater for agricultural irrigation in the middle HRB region; and the other is to cost-effectively collect hydrological data based on a data-worth evaluation. Overall, our study results highlight the value of incorporating an IHM in making decisions of water resources management and hydrological data collection. An IHM like GSFLOW can provide great flexibility to formulating proper objective functions and constraints for various optimization problems. On the other hand, it has been demonstrated that surrogate modeling approaches can pave the path for such incorporation in real-world situations, since they can dramatically reduce the computational cost of using IHMs in an iterative model evaluation process. In addition, our studies generated insights into the human-nature water conflicts in the specific study area and suggested potential solutions to address them.

Comparison of modelled runoff with observed proglacial discharge across the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moustafa, S.; Rennermalm, A.; van As, D.; Overeem, I.; Tedesco, M.; Mote, T. L.; Koenig, L.; Smith, L. C.; Hagedorn, B.; Sletten, R. S.; Mikkelsen, A. B.; Hasholt, B.; Hall, D. K.; Fettweis, X.; Pitcher, L. H.; Hubbard, A.

2017-12-01

Greenland ice sheet surface ablation now dominates its total mass loss contributions to sea-level rise. Despite the increasing importance of Greenland's sea-level contribution, a quantitative inter-comparison between modeled and measured melt, runoff and discharge across multiple drainage basins is conspicuously lacking. Here we investigate the accuracy of model discharge estimates from the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR v3.5.2) regional climate model by comparison with in situ proglacial river discharge measurements at three West Greenland drainage basins - North River (Thule), Watson River (Kangerlussuaq), and Naujat Kuat River (Nuuk). At each target catchment, we: 1) determine optimal drainage basin delineations; 2) assess primary drivers of melt; 3) evaluate MAR at daily, 5-, 10- and 20-day time scales; and 4) identify potential sources for model-observation discrepancies. Our results reveal that MAR resolves daily discharge variability poorly in the Nuuk and Thule basins (r2 = 0.4-0.5), but does capture variability over 5-, 10-, and 20-day means (r2 > 0.7). Model agreement with river flow data, though, is reduced during periods of peak discharge, particularly for the exceptional melt and discharge events of July 2012. Daily discharge is best captured by MAR across the Watson River basin, whilst there is lower correspondence between modeled and observed discharge at the Thule and Naujat Kuat River basins. We link the main source of model error to an underestimation of cloud cover, overestimation of surface albedo, and apparent warm bias in near-surface air temperatures. For future inter-comparison, we recommend using observations from catchments that have a self-contained and well-defined drainage area and an accurate discharge record over variable years coincident with a reliable automatic weather station record. Our study highlights the importance of improving MAR modeled surface albedo, cloud cover representation, and delay functions to reduce model error and to improve prediction of Greenland's future runoff contribution to global sea level rise.

Thermal evolution of a hyperextended rift basin, Mauléon Basin, western Pyrenees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, Nicole R.; Stockli, Daniel F.; Lavier, Luc L.; Hayman, Nicholas W.

2017-06-01

Onshore and offshore geological and geophysical observations and numerical modeling have greatly improved the conceptual understanding of magma-poor rifted margins. However, critical questions remain concerning the thermal evolution of the prerift to synrift phases of thinning ending with the formation of hyperextended crust and mantle exhumation. In the western Pyrenees, the Mauléon Basin preserves the structural and stratigraphic record of Cretaceous extension, exhumation, and sedimentation of the proximal-to-distal margin development. Pyrenean shortening uplifted basement and overlying sedimentary basins without pervasive shortening or reheating, making the Mauléon Basin an ideal locality to study the temporal and thermal evolution of magma-poor hyperextended rift systems through coupling bedrock and detrital zircon (U-Th)/He thermochronometric data from transects characterizing different structural rifting domains. These new data indicate that the basin was heated during early rifting to >180°C with geothermal gradients of 80-100°C/km. The proximal margin recorded rift-related exhumation/cooling at circa 98 Ma, whereas the distal margin remained >180°C until the onset of Paleocene Pyrenean shortening. Lithospheric-scale numerical modeling shows that high geothermal gradients, >80°C/km, and synrift sediments >180°C, can be reached early in rift evolution via heat advection by lithospheric depth-dependent thinning and blanketing caused by the lower thermal conductivity of synrift sediments. Mauléon Basin thermochronometric data and numerical modeling illustrate that reheating of basement and synrift strata might play an important role and should be considered in the future development of conceptual and numerical models for hyperextended magma-poor continental rifted margins.

Assessment and Calibration of Terrestrial Water Storage in North America with GRACE Level-1B Inter-satellite Residuals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loomis, B.; Luthcke, S. B.

2016-12-01

The global time-variable gravity products from GRACE continue to provide unique and important measurements of vertically integrated terrestrial water storage (TWS). Despite substantial improvements in recent years to the quality of the GRACE solutions and analysis techniques, significant disagreements can still exist between various approaches to compute basin scale TWS. Applying the GRACE spherical harmonic solutions to TWS analysis requires the selection, design, and implementation of one of a wide variety of available filters. It is common to then estimate and apply a set of scale factors to these filtered solutions in an attempt to restore lost signal. The advent of global mascon solutions, such as those produced by our group at NASA GSFC, are an important advancement in time-variable gravity estimation. This method applies data-driven regularization at the normal equation level, resulting in improved estimates of regional TWS. Though mascons are a valuable product, the design of the constraint matrix, the global minimization of observation residuals, and the arc-specific parameters, all introduce the possibility that localized basin scale signals are not perfectly recovered. The precise inter-satellite ranging instrument provides the primary observation set for the GRACE gravity solutions. Recently, we have developed an approach to analyze and calibrate basin scale TWS estimates directly from the inter-satellite observation residuals. To summarize, we compute the range-acceleration residuals for two different forward models by executing separate runs of our Level-1B processing system. We then quantify the linear relationship that exists between the modeled mass and the residual differences, defining a simple differential correction procedure that is applied to the modeled signals. This new calibration procedure does not require the computationally expensive formation and inversion of normal equations, and it eliminates any influence the solution technique may have on the determined regional time series of TWS. We apply this calibration approach to sixteen drainage basins that cover North America and present new measurements of TWS determined directly from the Level-1B range-acceleration residuals. Lastly, we compare these new solutions to other GRACE solutions and independent datasets.

Tree-ring-based estimates of long-term seasonal precipitation in the Souris River Region of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Akyüz, F. Adnan; Lin, Wei

2016-01-01

Historically unprecedented flooding occurred in the Souris River Basin of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba in 2011, during a longer term period of wet conditions in the basin. In order to develop a model of future flows, there is a need to evaluate effects of past multidecadal climate variability and/or possible climate change on precipitation. In this study, tree-ring chronologies and historical precipitation data in a four-degree buffer around the Souris River Basin were analyzed to develop regression models that can be used for predicting long-term variations of precipitation. To focus on longer term variability, 12-year moving average precipitation was modeled in five subregions (determined through cluster analysis of measures of precipitation) of the study area over three seasons (November–February, March–June and July–October). The models used multiresolution decomposition (an additive decomposition based on powers of two using a discrete wavelet transform) of tree-ring chronologies from Canada and the US and seasonal 12-year moving average precipitation based on Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data and US Historical Climatology Network data. Results show that precipitation varies on long-term (multidecadal) time scales of 16, 32 and 64 years. Past extended pluvial and drought events, which can vary greatly with season and subregion, were highlighted by the models. Results suggest that the recent wet period may be a part of natural variability on a very long time scale.

Track-pattern-based seasonal prediction model for intense tropical cyclone activities over the North Atlantic and the western North Pacific basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, W.; Ho, C. H.

2015-12-01

Intense tropical cyclones (TCs) accompanying heavy rainfall and destructive wind gusts sometimes cause incredible socio-economic damages in the regions near their landfall. This study aims to analyze intense TC activities in the North Atlantic (NA) and the western North Pacific (WNP) basins and develop their track propensity seasonal prediction model. Considering that the number of TCs in the NA basin is much smaller than that in the WNP basin, different intensity criteria are used; category 1 and above for NA and category 3 and above for WNP based on Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. By using a fuzzy clustering method, intense TC tracks in the NA and the WNP basins are classified into two and three representative patterns, respectively. Each pattern shows empirical relationships with climate variabilities such as sea surface temperature distribution associated with El Niño/La Niña or Atlantic Meridional Mode, Pacific decadal oscillation, upper and low level zonal wind, and strength of subtropical high. The hybrid statistical-dynamical method has been used to develop the seasonal prediction model for each pattern based on statistical relationships between the intense TC activity and seasonal averaged key predictors. The model performance is statistically assessed by cross validation for the training period (1982-2013) and has been applied for the 2014 and 2015 prediction. This study suggests applicability of this model to real prediction work and provide bridgehead of attempt for intense TC prediction.

Detrital zircon geochronology support for Baja-BC hypothesis or Why zircons in the Nanaimo Basin, British Columbia are not from the Rocky Mountains.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guest, B.; Matthews, W.; Hubbard, S. M.; Coutts, D. S.; Bain, H.

2016-12-01

The development of Cordilleran orogen of western North American is disputed despite a century of study. Paleomagnetic observations require large-scale dextral displacement of crustal fragments along the western margin of North America, from low latitudes to moderate latitudes during the Cretaceous-Paleogene. A lack of corroborating geological evidence for large-scale displacements has prevented the widespread integration of paleomagnetic data into contemporary tectonic models for the margin. Here we investigate the Cretaceous paleogeographic position of the Baja-BC block, a crustal fragment consisting of the Alexander and Wrangel terranes, using detrital zircons from the Nanaimo Basin of Vancouver Island, British Columbia. We compare 4310 detrital zircon U/Pb analyses from 16 samples to potential source areas in western North America to test hypothesized northern and southern paleogeographic positions. Our detrital zircon data suggest that sediment in the Nanaimo Basin derives from the Mojave-Sonoran Region of southwestern North America, supporting a southerly late Cretaceous paleogeographic position. We present a speculative Cretaceous to Paleogene paleogeographic reconstruction for the southwestern United States and northern Mexico that accommodates the presence, and northward transport, of the Baja-BC block. We propose that the Western Coast Mountains Batholith and the Nanaimo Basin represent the missing segment of the Mesozoic magmatic arc and associated forearc regions, between the Sierra Nevada and Peninsular Ranges Batholiths. This segment was translated northward following capture by the Kula plate. As such, we reconcile the paleomagnetic data for the Baja-BC block with the geology of the southwestern United States. Our model, albeit speculative, is compatible with the large-scale tectonic and magmatic processes that affected western North America in the Late Cretaceous and Paleogene.

Examining geological controls on baseflow index (BFI) using regression analysis: An illustration from the Thames Basin, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloomfield, J. P.; Allen, D. J.; Griffiths, K. J.

2009-06-01

SummaryLinear regression methods can be used to quantify geological controls on baseflow index (BFI). This is illustrated using an example from the Thames Basin, UK. Two approaches have been adopted. The areal extents of geological classes based on lithostratigraphic and hydrogeological classification schemes have been correlated with BFI for 44 'natural' catchments from the Thames Basin. When regression models are built using lithostratigraphic classes that include a constant term then the model is shown to have some physical meaning and the relative influence of the different geological classes on BFI can be quantified. For example, the regression constants for two such models, 0.64 and 0.69, are consistent with the mean observed BFI (0.65) for the Thames Basin, and the signs and relative magnitudes of the regression coefficients for each of the lithostratigraphic classes are consistent with the hydrogeology of the Basin. In addition, regression coefficients for the lithostratigraphic classes scale linearly with estimates of log 10 hydraulic conductivity for each lithological class. When a regression is built using a hydrogeological classification scheme with no constant term, the model does not have any physical meaning, but it has a relatively high adjusted R2 value and because of the continuous coverage of the hydrogeological classification scheme, the model can be used for predictive purposes. A model calibrated on the 44 'natural' catchments and using four hydrogeological classes (low-permeability surficial deposits, consolidated aquitards, fractured aquifers and intergranular aquifers) is shown to perform as well as a model based on a hydrology of soil types (BFIHOST) scheme in predicting BFI in the Thames Basin. Validation of this model using 110 other 'variably impacted' catchments in the Basin shows that there is a correlation between modelled and observed BFI. Where the observed BFI is significantly higher than modelled BFI the deviations can be explained by an exogenous factor, catchment urban area. It is inferred that this is may be due influences from sewage discharge, mains leakage, and leakage from septic tanks.

Human impact on sediment fluxes within the Blue Nile and Atbara River basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balthazar, Vincent; Vanacker, Veerle; Girma, Atkilt; Poesen, Jean; Golla, Semunesh

2013-01-01

A regional assessment of the spatial variability in sediment yields allows filling the gap between detailed, process-based understanding of erosion at field scale and empirical sediment flux models at global scale. In this paper, we focus on the intrabasin variability in sediment yield within the Blue Nile and Atbara basins as biophysical and anthropogenic factors are presumably acting together to accelerate soil erosion. The Blue Nile and Atbara River systems are characterized by an important spatial variability in sediment fluxes, with area-specific sediment yield (SSY) values ranging between 4 and 4935 t/km2/y. Statistical analyses show that 41% of the observed variation in SSY can be explained by remote sensing proxy data of surface vegetation cover, rainfall intensity, mean annual temperature, and human impact. The comparison of a locally adapted regression model with global predictive sediment flux models indicates that global flux models such as the ART and BQART models are less suited to capture the spatial variability in area-specific sediment yields (SSY), but they are very efficient to predict absolute sediment yields (SY). We developed a modified version of the BQART model that estimates the human influence on sediment yield based on a high resolution composite measure of local human impact (human footprint index) instead of countrywide estimates of GNP/capita. Our modified version of the BQART is able to explain 80% of the observed variation in SY for the Blue Nile and Atbara basins and thereby performs only slightly less than locally adapted regression models.

Annual water, sediment, nutrient, and organic carbon fluxes in river basins: A global meta-analysis as a function of scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mutema, M.; Chaplot, V.; Jewitt, G.; Chivenge, P.; Blöschl, G.

2015-11-01

Process controls on water, sediment, nutrient, and organic carbon exports from the landscape through runoff are not fully understood. This paper provides analyses from 446 sites worldwide to evaluate the impact of environmental factors (MAP and MAT: mean annual precipitation and temperature; CLAY and BD: soil clay content and bulk density; S: slope gradient; LU: land use) on annual exports (RC: runoff coefficients; SL: sediment loads; TOCL: organic carbon losses; TNL: nitrogen losses; TPL: phosphorus losses) from different spatial scales. RC was found to increase, on average, from 18% at local scale (in headwaters), 25% at microcatchment and subcatchment scale (midreaches) to 41% at catchment scale (lower reaches of river basins) in response to multiple factors. SL increased from microplots (468 g m-2 yr-1) to plots (901 g m-2 yr-1), accompanied by decreasing TOCL and TNL. Climate was a major control masking the effects of other factors. For example, RC, SL, TOCL, TNL, and TPL tended to increase with MAP at all spatial scales. These variables, however, decreased with MAT. The impact of CLAY, BD, LU, and S on erosion variables was largely confined to the hillslope scale, where RC, SL, and TOCL decreased with CLAY, while TNL and TPL increased. The results contribute to better understanding of water, nutrient, and carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems and should inform river basin modeling and ecosystem management. The important role of spatial climate variability points to a need for comparative research in specific environments at nested spatiotemporal scales.

Residence times in river basins as determined by analysis of long-term tritium records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michel, R.L.

1992-01-01

The US Geological Survey has maintained a network of stations to collect samples for the measurement of tritium concentrations in precipitation and streamflow since the early 1960s. Tritium data from outflow waters of river basins draining 4500-75000 km2 are used to determine average residence times of water within the basins. The basins studied are the Colorado River above Cisco, Utah; the Kissimmee River above Lake Okeechobee, Florida; the Mississippi River above Anoka, Minnesota; the Neuse River above Streets Ferry Bridge near Vanceboro, North Carolina; the Potomac River above Point of Rocks, Maryland; the Sacramento River above Sacramento, California; the Susquehanna River above Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. The basins are modeled with the assumption that the outflow in the river comes from two sources-prompt (within-year) runoff from precipitation, and flow from the long-term reservoirs of the basin. Tritium concentration in the outflow water of the basin is dependent on three factors: (1) tritium concentration in runoff from the long-term reservoir, which depends on the residence time for the reservoir and historical tritium concentrations in precipitation; (2) tritium concentrations in precipitation (the within-year runoff component); (3) relative contributions of flow from the long-term and within-year components. Predicted tritium concentrations for the outflow water in the river basins were calculated for different residence times and for different relative contributions from the two reservoirs. A box model was used to calculate tritium concentrations in the long-term reservoir. Calculated values of outflow tritium concentrations for the basin were regressed against the measured data to obtain a slope as close as possible to 1. These regressions assumed an intercept of zero and were carried out for different values of residence time and reservoir contribution to maximize the fit of modeled versus actual data for all the above rivers. The final slopes of the fitted regression lines ranged from 0.95 to 1.01 (correlation coefficient > 0.96) for the basins studied. Values for the residence time of waters within the basins and average relative contributions of the within-year and long-term reservoirs to outflow were obtained. Values for river basin residence times ranged from 2 years for the Kissimmee River basin to 20 years for the Potomac River basin. The residence times indicate the time scale in which the basin responds to anthropogenic inputs. The modeled tritium concentrations for the basins also furnish input data for urban and agricultural settings where these river waters are used. ?? 1992.

A stream temperature model for the Peace-Athabasca River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morales-Marin, L. A.; Rokaya, P.; Wheater, H. S.; Lindenschmidt, K. E.

2017-12-01

Water temperature plays a fundamental role in water ecosystem functioning. Because it regulates flow energy and metabolic rates in organism productivity over a broad spectrum of space and time scales, water temperature constitutes an important indicator of aquatic ecosystems health. In cold region basins, stream water temperature modelling is also fundamental to predict ice freeze-up and break-up events in order to improve flood management. Multiple model approaches such as linear and multivariable regression methods, neural network and thermal energy budged models have been developed and implemented to simulate stream water temperature. Most of these models have been applied to specific stream reaches and trained using observed data, but very little has been done to simulate water temperature in large catchment river networks. We present the coupling of RBM model, a semi-Lagrangian water temperature model for advection-dominated river system, and MESH, a semi-distributed hydrological model, to simulate stream water temperature in river catchments. The coupled models are implemented in the Peace-Athabasca River basin in order to analyze the variation in stream temperature regimes under changing hydrological and meteorological conditions. Uncertainty of stream temperature simulations is also assessed in order to determine the degree of reliability of the estimates.

Building the ensemble flood prediction system by using numerical weather prediction data: Case study in Kinu river basin, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishitsuka, Y.; Yoshimura, K.

2016-12-01

Floods have a potential to be a major source of economic or human damage caused by natural disasters. Flood prediction systems were developed all over the world and to treat the uncertainty of the prediction ensemble simulation is commonly adopted. In this study, ensemble flood prediction system using global scale land surface and hydrodynamic model was developed. The system requests surface atmospheric forcing and Land Surface Model, MATSIRO, calculates runoff. Those generated runoff is inputted to hydrodynamic model CaMa-Flood to calculate discharge and flood inundation. CaMa-Flood can simulate flood area and its fraction by introducing floodplain connected to river channel. Forecast leadtime was set 39hours according to forcing data. For the case study, the flood occurred at Kinu river basin, Japan in 2015 was hindcasted. In a 1761 km² Kinu river basin, 3-days accumulated average rainfall was 384mm and over 4000 people was left in the inundated area. Available ensemble numerical weather prediction data at that time was inputted to the system in a resolution of 0.05 degrees and 1hour time step. As a result, the system predicted the flood occurrence by 45% and 84% at 23 and 11 hours before the water level exceeded the evacuation threshold, respectively. Those prediction lead time may provide the chance for early preparation for the floods such as levee reinforcement or evacuation. Adding to the discharge, flood area predictability was also analyzed. Although those models were applied for Japan region, this system can be applied easily to other region or even global scale. The areal flood prediction in meso to global scale would be useful for detecting hot zones or vulnerable areas over each region.

How restructuring river connectivity changes freshwater fish biodiversity and biogeography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lynch, Heather L.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Arunachalam, Muthukumarasamy; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Fagan, William F.

2011-01-01

Interbasin water transfer projects, in which river connectivity is restructured via man-made canals, are an increasingly popular solution to address the spatial mismatch between supply and demand of fresh water. However, the ecological consequences of such restructuring remain largely unexplored, and there are no general theoretical guidelines from which to derive these expectations. River systems provide excellent opportunities to explore how network connectivity shapes habitat occupancy, community dynamics, and biogeographic patterns. We apply a neutral model (which assumes competitive equivalence among species within a stochastic framework) to an empirically derived river network to explore how proposed changes in network connectivity may impact patterns of freshwater fish biodiversity. Without predicting the responses of individual extant species, we find the addition of canals connecting hydrologically isolated river basins facilitates the spread of common species and increases average local species richness without changing the total species richness of the system. These impacts are sensitive to the parameters controlling the spatial scale of fish dispersal, with increased dispersal affording more opportunities for biotic restructuring at the community and landscape scales. Connections between isolated basins have a much larger effect on local species richness than those connecting reaches within a river basin, even when those within-basin reaches are far apart. As a result, interbasin canal projects have the potential for long-term impacts to continental-scale riverine communities.

Satellite-based Flood Modeling Using TRMM-based Rainfall Products

PubMed Central

Harris, Amanda; Rahman, Sayma; Hossain, Faisal; Yarborough, Lance; Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios C.; Easson, Greg

2007-01-01

Increasingly available and a virtually uninterrupted supply of satellite-estimated rainfall data is gradually becoming a cost-effective source of input for flood prediction under a variety of circumstances. However, most real-time and quasi-global satellite rainfall products are currently available at spatial scales ranging from 0.25° to 0.50° and hence, are considered somewhat coarse for dynamic hydrologic modeling of basin-scale flood events. This study assesses the question: what are the hydrologic implications of uncertainty of satellite rainfall data at the coarse scale? We investigated this question on the 970 km2 Upper Cumberland river basin of Kentucky. The satellite rainfall product assessed was NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) product called 3B41RT that is available in pseudo real time with a latency of 6-10 hours. We observed that bias adjustment of satellite rainfall data can improve application in flood prediction to some extent with the trade-off of more false alarms in peak flow. However, a more rational and regime-based adjustment procedure needs to be identified before the use of satellite data can be institutionalized among flood modelers. PMID:28903302

2D numerical modeling of gravity-driven giant-scale deformation processes in the offshore Barreirinhas Basin (Brazil)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cruciani, Francesco; Manconi, Andrea; Rinaldo Barchi, Massimiliano

2014-05-01

Gravity-driven deformation processes at continental passive margins occur at different scales, from small-scale turbidity currents and sediment slides, to large-scale mass transport complexes (MTCs), to the giant-scale deep water fold and thrust belts (DW-FTBs), which affect most or the entire sedimentary sequence. This kind of giant structures, quite widespread in passive margins, may be active for tens of millions of years. In this context, the Brazilian Atlantic margin hosts several well-known DW-FTBs detached on both shale and salt décollement. Despite of their relevant scientific and economic importance, the mechanical processes driving the onset and evolution of these giant-scale structures are still poorly investigated. In this work, we focus on the shale décollement DW-FTB of the Barreirinhas Basin, where the continental slope has been affected by multi-phase gravitational processes since the Late Cretaceous. This DW-FTB consists of a linked fault system of listric normal faults updip and thrust faults downdip, detached over a common concave upward décollement surface. From the onshore extensional to the offshore compressional domain the DW-FTB is about 50 km wide and involve a sedimentary sequence up to 5 km thick. Shortening within the compressional domain is accommodated almost entirely from a single thrust ramp with a large related anticline fold. Previous studies have shown that the main activity phases of the gravitational processes are closely linked to significant increases in the sediment supply within the basin. Indeed, the highest deformation rate, accounting for about 80% of the net strain, occurred in the Upper Miocene following a drainage rearrangement which led to the birth of the modern Amazon River drainage system. The Barreirinhas Basin DW-FTB entails a rather simple geometrical structure, which can be well schematized, therefore is particularly suitable for numerical simulations aimed to study and understand the dynamics of DW-FTB at this particular place and also elsewhere. We set up a 2D fluid dynamic model by considering a Finite Element Method (FEM) environment, which allows us to well represent the geometries, densities and viscosities of the geological materials, as derived from geophysical investigations. Our study aims at understanding whether the long-term mechanical behavior of the Barreirinhas Basin DW-FTB can be reproduced by considering a simplified Newtonian fluid dynamics environment or it is controlled by a more complex rheology, which might include the effect of additional parameters such as internal friction, cohesive strength and pore-fluid pressure at the basal detachment.

Impact of basin scale and time-weighted mercury metrics on intra-/inter-basin mercury comparisons

Treesearch

Paul Bradley; Mark E. Brigham

2016-01-01

Understanding anthropogenic and environmental controls on fluvial Mercury (Hg) bioaccumulation over global and national gradients can be challenging due to the need to integrate discrete-sample results from numerous small scale investigations. Two fundamental issues for such integrative Hg assessments are the wide range of basin scales for included studies and how well...

Central magnetic anomalies of Nectarian-aged lunar impact basins: Probable evidence for an early core dynamo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hood, Lon L.

2011-02-01

A re-examination of all available low-altitude LP magnetometer data confirms that magnetic anomalies are present in at least four Nectarian-aged lunar basins: Moscoviense, Mendel-Rydberg, Humboldtianum, and Crisium. In three of the four cases, a single main anomaly is present near the basin center while, in the case of Crisium, anomalies are distributed in a semi-circular arc about the basin center. These distributions, together with a lack of other anomalies near the basins, indicate that the sources of the anomalies are genetically associated with the respective basin-forming events. These central basin anomalies are difficult to attribute to shock remanent magnetization of a shocked central uplift and most probably imply thermoremanent magnetization of impact melt rocks in a steady magnetizing field. Iterative forward modeling of the single strongest and most isolated anomaly, the northern Crisium anomaly, yields a paleomagnetic pole position at 81° ± 19°N, 143° ± 31°E, not far from the present rotational pole. Assuming no significant true polar wander since the Crisium impact, this position is consistent with that expected for a core dynamo magnetizing field. Further iterative forward modeling demonstrates that the remaining Crisium anomalies can be approximately simulated assuming a multiple source model with a single magnetization direction equal to that inferred for the northernmost anomaly. This result is most consistent with a steady, large-scale magnetizing field. The inferred mean magnetization intensity within the strongest basin sources is ˜1 A/m assuming a 1-km thickness for the source layer. Future low-altitude orbital and surface magnetometer measurements will more strongly constrain the depth and/or thicknesses of the sources.

Examining the effects of urban agglomeration polders on flood events in Qinhuai River basin, China with HEC-HMS model.

PubMed

Gao, Yuqin; Yuan, Yu; Wang, Huaizhi; Schmidt, Arthur R; Wang, Kexuan; Ye, Liu

2017-05-01

The urban agglomeration polders type of flood control pattern is a general flood control pattern in the eastern plain area and some of the secondary river basins in China. A HEC-HMS model of Qinhuai River basin based on the flood control pattern was established for simulating basin runoff, examining the impact of urban agglomeration polders on flood events, and estimating the effects of urbanization on hydrological processes of the urban agglomeration polders in Qinhuai River basin. The results indicate that the urban agglomeration polders could increase the peak flow and flood volume. The smaller the scale of the flood, the more significant the influence of the polder was to the flood volume. The distribution of the city circle polder has no obvious impact on the flood volume, but has effect on the peak flow. The closer the polder is to basin output, the smaller the influence it has on peak flows. As the level of urbanization gradually improving of city circle polder, flood volumes and peak flows gradually increase compared to those with the current level of urbanization (the impervious rate was 20%). The potential change in flood volume and peak flow with increasing impervious rate shows a linear relationship.

The role of interbasin groundwater transfers in geologically complex terranes, demonstrated by the Great Basin in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, Stephen T.; Mayo, Alan L.

2014-06-01

In the Great Basin, USA, bedrock interbasin flow is conceptualized as the mechanism by which large groundwater fluxes flow through multiple basins and intervening mountains. Interbasin flow is propounded based on: (1) water budget imbalances, (2) potential differences between basins, (3) stable isotope evidence, and (4) modeling studies. However, water budgets are too imprecise to discern interbasin transfers and potential differences may exist with or without interbasin fluxes. Potentiometric maps are dependent on conceptual underpinnings, leading to possible false inferences regarding interbasin transfers. Isotopic evidence is prone to non-unique interpretation and may be confounded by the effects of climate change. Structural and stratigraphic considerations in a geologically complex region like the Great Basin should produce compartmentalization, where increasing aquifer size increases the odds of segmentation along a given flow path. Initial conceptual hypotheses should explain flow with local recharge and short flow paths. Where bedrock interbasin flow is suspected, it is most likely controlled by diversion of water into the damage zones of normal faults, where fault cores act as barriers. Large-scale bedrock interbasin flow where fluxes must transect multiple basins, ranges, and faults at high angles should be the conceptual model of last resort.

On neutral metacommunity patterns of river basins at different scales of aggregation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Convertino, Matteo; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Azaele, Sandro; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Rinaldo, Andrea; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2009-08-01

Neutral metacommunity models for spatial biodiversity patterns are implemented on river networks acting as ecological corridors at different resolution. Coarse-graining elevation fields (under the constraint of preserving the basin mean elevation) produce a set of reconfigured drainage networks. The hydrologic assumption made implies uniform runoff production such that each link has the same habitat capacity. Despite the universal scaling properties shown by river basins regardless of size, climate, vegetation, or exposed lithology, we find that species richness at local and regional scales exhibits resolution-dependent behavior. In addition, we investigate species-area relationships and rank-abundance patterns. The slopes of the species-area relationships, which are consistent over coarse-graining resolutions, match those found in real landscapes in the case of long-distance dispersal. The rank-abundance patterns are independent of the resolution over a broad range of dispersal length. Our results confirm that strong interactions occur between network structure and the dispersal of species and that under the assumption of neutral dynamics, these interactions produce resolution-dependent biodiversity patterns that diverge from expectations following from universal geomorphic scaling laws. Both in theoretical and in applied ecology studying how patterns change in resolution is relevant for understanding how ecological dynamics work in fragmented landscape and for sampling and biodiversity management campaigns, especially in consideration of climate change.

Using Lunar Impact Basin Relaxation to Test Impact Flux Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nimmo, F.; Conrad, J. W.; Neumann, G. A.; Kamata, S.; Fassett, C.

2017-12-01

Gravity data obtained by the GRAIL mission [1] has constrained the number and distribution of lunar impact basins [2]. We analyzed crater densities for newly-proposed basins to assign relative ages. The extent to which a basin is relaxed is calculated using GRAIL-derived crustal thickness models [3] by comparing the mantle uplift under basins to the surrounding region. With our catalog we can investigate the distribution of basin properties through relative time. We identify a relaxation state transition (RT) around the pre-Nectarian 4 relative age group for basins with diameters > 450 km, similar to previous results using a pre-GRAIL basin catalog [4]. This RT likely signals a change in the global thermal state of the crust, representing the time at which the lunar moho temperature fell below 1400 K [4]. This transition happens 50-100 million years (Myr) after the lunar magma ocean (LMO) solidifies [4]. Based on models and inferences of LMO solidification [5, 6] the RT is expected to occur at 4.25-4.50 Ga, depending on the rate of cooling once a crustal lid has formed [5] and the amount of tidal heating in the early crust [6]. Monotonically declining impact flux models, such as [7] and [8] predict a younger RT; 4.07-4.08 and 4.24-4.27 Ga respectively. A scaled-down version of [8] can fit the RT but fails to match the observed number of younger, unrelaxed basins. Models that invoke a later transient increase in impact flux can reproduce the inferred RT time; for instance, the model of [9] gives a RT age of 4.43-4.46 Ga. This model matches the number of younger basins and implies that basin preservation started at 4.49 Ga, likely before the LMO completely solidified. [1] Zuber M.T. et al. (2013) Science, 339, 668-671. [2] Neumann G.A. et al. (2015) Science Advances, 1, e1500852. [3] Wieczorek M.A. (2013) Science, 339, 671-675. [4] Kamata S. et al. (2015) Icarus, 250, 492-504. [5] Elkins-Tanton L.T. et al. (2011) Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 304, 326-336. [6] Meyer, J. et al. (2010) Icarus, 208, 1-10. [7] Robbins S.J. (2014) Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 403, 188-198. [8] Neukum G. et al. (2001) Space Sci. Rev., 96, 55-86. [9] Morbidelli A. et al. (2012) Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 355, 144-151.

Late Mesozoic and Cenozoic thermotectonic evolution of the central Brooks Range and adjacent North Slope foreland basin, Alaska: Including fission track results from the Trans-Alaska Crustal Transect (TACT)

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Sullivan, P. B.; Murphy, J.M.; Blythe, A.E.

1997-01-01

Apatite fission track data are used to evaluate the thermal and tectonic history of the central Brooks Range and the North Slope foreland basin in northern Alaska along the northern leg of the Trans-Alaska Crustal Transect (TACT). Fission track analyses of the detrital apatite grains in most sedimentary units resolve the timing of structures and denudation within the Brooks Range, ranging in scale from the entire mountain range to relatively small-scale folds and faults. Interpretation of the results indicates that rocks exposed within the central Brooks Range cooled rapidly from paleotemperatures 110?? to 50??C during discrete episodes at ???100??5 Ma, ???60??4 Ma, and ???24??3 Ma, probably in response to kilometer-scale denudation. North of the mountain front, rocks in the southern half of the foreland basin were exposed to maximum paleotemperatures 110??C in the Late Cretaceous to early Paleocene as a result of burial by Upper Jurassic and Cretaceous sedimentary rocks. Rapid cooling from these elevated paleotemperatures also occurred due to distinct episodes of kilometer-scale denudation at ???60??4 Ma, 46??3 Ma, 35??2 Ma, and ???24??3 Ma. Combined, the apatite analyses indicate that rocks exposed along the TACT line through the central Brooks Range and foreland basin experienced episodic rapid cooling throughout the Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic in response to at least three distinct kilometer-scale denudation events. Future models explaining orogenic events in northern Alaska must consider these new constraints from fission track thermochronology. Copyright 1997 by the American Geophysical Union.

High-Elevation Evapotranspiration Estimates During Drought: Using Streamflow and NASA Airborne Snow Observatory SWE Observations to Close the Upper Tuolumne River Basin Water Balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henn, Brian; Painter, Thomas H.; Bormann, Kat J.; McGurk, Bruce; Flint, Alan L.; Flint, Lorraine E.; White, Vince; Lundquist, Jessica D.

2018-02-01

Hydrologic variables such as evapotranspiration (ET) and soil water storage are difficult to observe across spatial scales in complex terrain. Streamflow and lidar-derived snow observations provide information about distributed hydrologic processes such as snowmelt, infiltration, and storage. We use a distributed streamflow data set across eight basins in the upper Tuolumne River region of Yosemite National Park in the Sierra Nevada mountain range, and the NASA Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) lidar-derived snow data set over 3 years (2013-2015) during a prolonged drought in California, to estimate basin-scale water balance components. We compare snowmelt and cumulative precipitation over periods from the ASO flight to the end of the water year against cumulative streamflow observations. The basin water balance residual term (snow melt plus precipitation minus streamflow) is calculated for each basin and year. Using soil moisture observations and hydrologic model simulations, we show that the residual term represents short-term changes in basin water storage over the snowmelt season, but that over the period from peak snow water equivalent (SWE) to the end of summer, it represents cumulative basin-mean ET. Warm-season ET estimated from this approach is 168 (85-252 at 95% confidence), 162 (0-326) and 191 (48-334) mm averaged across the basins in 2013, 2014, and 2015, respectively. These values are lower than previous full-year and point ET estimates in the Sierra Nevada, potentially reflecting reduced ET during drought, the effects of spatial variability, and the part-year time period. Using streamflow and ASO snow observations, we quantify spatially-distributed hydrologic processes otherwise difficult to observe.