Pre-Whaling Genetic Diversity and Population Ecology in Eastern Pacific Gray Whales: Insights from Ancient DNA and Stable Isotopes

PubMed Central

Alter, S. Elizabeth; Newsome, Seth D.; Palumbi, Stephen R.

2012-01-01

Commercial whaling decimated many whale populations, including the eastern Pacific gray whale, but little is known about how population dynamics or ecology differed prior to these removals. Of particular interest is the possibility of a large population decline prior to whaling, as such a decline could explain the ∼5-fold difference between genetic estimates of prior abundance and estimates based on historical records. We analyzed genetic (mitochondrial control region) and isotopic information from modern and prehistoric gray whales using serial coalescent simulations and Bayesian skyline analyses to test for a pre-whaling decline and to examine prehistoric genetic diversity, population dynamics and ecology. Simulations demonstrate that significant genetic differences observed between ancient and modern samples could be caused by a large, recent population bottleneck, roughly concurrent with commercial whaling. Stable isotopes show minimal differences between modern and ancient gray whale foraging ecology. Using rejection-based Approximate Bayesian Computation, we estimate the size of the population bottleneck at its minimum abundance and the pre-bottleneck abundance. Our results agree with previous genetic studies suggesting the historical size of the eastern gray whale population was roughly three to five times its current size. PMID:22590499

A history estimate and evolutionary analysis of rabies virus variants in China.

PubMed

Ming, Pinggang; Yan, Jiaxin; Rayner, Simon; Meng, Shengli; Xu, Gelin; Tang, Qing; Wu, Jie; Luo, Jing; Yang, Xiaoming

2010-03-01

To investigate the evolutionary dynamics of rabies virus (RABV) in China, we collected and sequenced 55 isolates sampled from 14 Chinese provinces over the last 40 years and performed a coalescent-based analysis of the G gene. This revealed that the RABV currently circulating in China is composed of three main groups. Bayesian coalescent analysis estimated the date of the most recent common ancestor for the current RABV Chinese strains to be 1412 (with a 95 % confidence interval of 1006-1736). The estimated mean substitution rate for the G gene sequences (3.961x10(-4) substitutions per site per year) was in accordance with previous reports for RABV.

Sky island diversification meets the multispecies coalescent - divergence in the spruce-fir moss spider (Microhexura montivaga, Araneae, Mygalomorphae) on the highest peaks of southern Appalachia.

PubMed

Hedin, Marshal; Carlson, Dave; Coyle, Fred

2015-07-01

Microhexura montivaga is a miniature tarantula-like spider endemic to the highest peaks of the southern Appalachian mountains and is known only from six allopatric, highly disjunct montane populations. Because of severe declines in spruce-fir forest in the late 20th century, M. montivaga was formally listed as a US federally endangered species in 1995. Using DNA sequence data from one mitochondrial and seven nuclear genes, patterns of multigenic genetic divergence were assessed for six montane populations. Independent mitochondrial and nuclear discovery analyses reveal obvious genetic fragmentation both within and among montane populations, with five to seven primary genetic lineages recovered. Multispecies coalescent validation analyses [guide tree and unguided Bayesian Phylogenetics and Phylogeography (BPP), Bayes factor delimitation (BFD)] using nuclear-only data congruently recover six or seven distinct lineages; BFD analyses using combined nuclear plus mitochondrial data favour seven or eight lineages. In stark contrast to this clear genetic fragmentation, a survey of secondary sexual features for available males indicates morphological conservatism across montane populations. While it is certainly possible that morphologically cryptic speciation has occurred in this taxon, this system may alternatively represent a case where extreme population genetic structuring (but not speciation) leads to an oversplitting of lineage diversity by multispecies coalescent methods. Our results have clear conservation implications for this federally endangered taxon and illustrate a methodological issue expected to become more common as genomic-scale data sets are gathered for taxa found in naturally fragmented habitats. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reconstruction of a windborne insect invasion using a particle dispersal model, historical wind data, and Bayesian analysis of genetic data

PubMed Central

Lander, Tonya A; Klein, Etienne K; Oddou-Muratorio, Sylvie; Candau, Jean-Noël; Gidoin, Cindy; Chalon, Alain; Roig, Anne; Fallour, Delphine; Auger-Rozenberg, Marie-Anne; Boivin, Thomas

2014-01-01

Understanding how invasive species establish and spread is vital for developing effective management strategies for invaded areas and identifying new areas where the risk of invasion is highest. We investigated the explanatory power of dispersal histories reconstructed based on local-scale wind data and a regional-scale wind-dispersed particle trajectory model for the invasive seed chalcid wasp Megastigmus schimitscheki (Hymenoptera: Torymidae) in France. The explanatory power was tested by: (1) survival analysis of empirical data on M. schimitscheki presence, absence and year of arrival at 52 stands of the wasp's obligate hosts, Cedrus (true cedar trees); and (2) Approximate Bayesian analysis of M. schimitscheki genetic data using a coalescence model. The Bayesian demographic modeling and traditional population genetic analysis suggested that initial invasion across the range was the result of long-distance dispersal from the longest established sites. The survival analyses of the windborne expansion patterns derived from a particle dispersal model indicated that there was an informative correlation between the M. schimitscheki presence/absence data from the annual surveys and the scenarios based on regional-scale wind data. These three very different analyses produced highly congruent results supporting our proposal that wind is the most probable vector for passive long-distance dispersal of this invasive seed wasp. This result confirms that long-distance dispersal from introduction areas is a likely driver of secondary expansion of alien invasive species. Based on our results, management programs for this and other windborne invasive species may consider (1) focusing effort at the longest established sites and (2) monitoring outlying populations remains critically important due to their influence on rates of spread. We also suggest that there is a distinct need for new analysis methods that have the capacity to combine empirical spatiotemporal field data, genetic data, and environmental data to investigate dispersal and invasion. PMID:25558356

Molecular species delimitation methods recover most song-delimited cicada species in the European Cicadetta montana complex.

PubMed

Wade, E J; Hertach, T; Gogala, M; Trilar, T; Simon, C

2015-12-01

Molecular species delimitation is increasingly being used to discover and illuminate species level diversity, and a number of methods have been developed. Here, we compare the ability of two molecular species delimitation methods to recover song-delimited species in the Cicadetta montana cryptic species complex throughout Europe. Recent bioacoustics studies of male calling songs (premating reproductive barriers) have revealed cryptic species diversity in this complex. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses were used to analyse the mitochondrial genes COI and COII and the nuclear genes EF1α and period for thirteen European Cicadetta species as well as the closely related monotypic genus Euboeana. Two molecular species delimitation methods, general mixed Yule-coalescent (GMYC) and Bayesian phylogenetics and phylogeography, identified the majority of song-delimited species and were largely congruent with each other. None of the molecular delimitation methods were able to fully recover a recent radiation of four Greek species. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Multilocus approach to clarify species status and the divergence history of the Bemisia tabaci (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) species complex.

PubMed

Hsieh, Chia-Hung; Ko, Chiun-Cheng; Chung, Cheng-Han; Wang, Hurng-Yi

2014-07-01

The sweet potato whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, is a highly differentiated species complex. Despite consisting of several morphologically indistinguishable entities and frequent invasions on all continents with important associated economic losses, the phylogenetic relationships, species status, and evolutionary history of this species complex is still debated. We sequenced and analyzed one mitochondrial and three single-copy nuclear genes from 9 of the 12 genetic groups of B. tabaci and 5 closely related species. Bayesian species delimitation was applied to investigate the speciation events of B. tabaci. The species statuses of the different genetic groups were strongly supported under different prior settings and phylogenetic scenarios. Divergence histories were estimated by a multispecies coalescence approach implemented in (*)BEAST. Based on mitochondrial locus, B. tabaci was originated 6.47 million years ago (MYA). Nevertheless, the time was 1.25MYA based on nuclear loci. According to the method of approximate Bayesian computation, this difference is probably due to different degrees of migration among loci; i.e., although the mitochondrial locus had differentiated, gene flow at nuclear loci was still possible, a scenario similar to parapatric mode of speciation. This is the first study in whiteflies using multilocus data and incorporating Bayesian coalescence approaches, both of which provide a more biologically realistic framework for delimiting species status and delineating the divergence history of B. tabaci. Our study illustrates that gene flow during species divergence should not be overlooked and has a great impact on divergence time estimation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Insights into the phylogeny of Northern Hemisphere Armillaria: Neighbor-net and Bayesian analyses of translation elongation factor 1-α gene sequences.

PubMed

Klopfenstein, Ned B; Stewart, Jane E; Ota, Yuko; Hanna, John W; Richardson, Bryce A; Ross-Davis, Amy L; Elías-Román, Rubén D; Korhonen, Kari; Keča, Nenad; Iturritxa, Eugenia; Alvarado-Rosales, Dionicio; Solheim, Halvor; Brazee, Nicholas J; Łakomy, Piotr; Cleary, Michelle R; Hasegawa, Eri; Kikuchi, Taisei; Garza-Ocañas, Fortunato; Tsopelas, Panaghiotis; Rigling, Daniel; Prospero, Simone; Tsykun, Tetyana; Bérubé, Jean A; Stefani, Franck O P; Jafarpour, Saeideh; Antonín, Vladimír; Tomšovský, Michal; McDonald, Geral I; Woodward, Stephen; Kim, Mee-Sook

2017-01-01

Armillaria possesses several intriguing characteristics that have inspired wide interest in understanding phylogenetic relationships within and among species of this genus. Nuclear ribosomal DNA sequence-based analyses of Armillaria provide only limited information for phylogenetic studies among widely divergent taxa. More recent studies have shown that translation elongation factor 1-α (tef1) sequences are highly informative for phylogenetic analysis of Armillaria species within diverse global regions. This study used Neighbor-net and coalescence-based Bayesian analyses to examine phylogenetic relationships of newly determined and existing tef1 sequences derived from diverse Armillaria species from across the Northern Hemisphere, with Southern Hemisphere Armillaria species included for reference. Based on the Bayesian analysis of tef1 sequences, Armillaria species from the Northern Hemisphere are generally contained within the following four superclades, which are named according to the specific epithet of the most frequently cited species within the superclade: (i) Socialis/Tabescens (exannulate) superclade including Eurasian A. ectypa, North American A. socialis (A. tabescens), and Eurasian A. socialis (A. tabescens) clades; (ii) Mellea superclade including undescribed annulate North American Armillaria sp. (Mexico) and four separate clades of A. mellea (Europe and Iran, eastern Asia, and two groups from North America); (iii) Gallica superclade including Armillaria Nag E (Japan), multiple clades of A. gallica (Asia and Europe), A. calvescens (eastern North America), A. cepistipes (North America), A. altimontana (western USA), A. nabsnona (North America and Japan), and at least two A. gallica clades (North America); and (iv) Solidipes/Ostoyae superclade including two A. solidipes/ostoyae clades (North America), A. gemina (eastern USA), A. solidipes/ostoyae (Eurasia), A. cepistipes (Europe and Japan), A. sinapina (North America and Japan), and A. borealis (Eurasia) clade 2. Of note is that A. borealis (Eurasia) clade 1 appears basal to the Solidipes/Ostoyae and Gallica superclades. The Neighbor-net analysis showed similar phylogenetic relationships. This study further demonstrates the utility of tef1 for global phylogenetic studies of Armillaria species and provides critical insights into multiple taxonomic issues that warrant further study.

Species trees from consensus single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data: Testing phylogenetic approaches with simulated and empirical data.

PubMed

Schmidt-Lebuhn, Alexander N; Aitken, Nicola C; Chuah, Aaron

2017-11-01

Datasets of hundreds or thousands of SNPs (Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms) from multiple individuals per species are increasingly used to study population structure, species delimitation and shallow phylogenetics. The principal software tool to infer species or population trees from SNP data is currently the BEAST template SNAPP which uses a Bayesian coalescent analysis. However, it is computationally extremely demanding and tolerates only small amounts of missing data. We used simulated and empirical SNPs from plants (Australian Craspedia, Asteraceae, and Pelargonium, Geraniaceae) to compare species trees produced (1) by SNAPP, (2) using SVD quartets, and (3) using Bayesian and parsimony analysis with several different approaches to summarising data from multiple samples into one set of traits per species. Our aims were to explore the impact of tree topology and missing data on the results, and to test which data summarising and analyses approaches would best approximate the results obtained from SNAPP for empirical data. SVD quartets retrieved the correct topology from simulated data, as did SNAPP except in the case of a very unbalanced phylogeny. Both methods failed to retrieve the correct topology when large amounts of data were missing. Bayesian analysis of species level summary data scoring the two alleles of each SNP as independent characters and parsimony analysis of data scoring each SNP as one character produced trees with branch length distributions closest to the true trees on which SNPs were simulated. For empirical data, Bayesian inference and Dollo parsimony analysis of data scored allele-wise produced phylogenies most congruent with the results of SNAPP. In the case of study groups divergent enough for missing data to be phylogenetically informative (because of additional mutations preventing amplification of genomic fragments or bioinformatic establishment of homology), scoring of SNP data as a presence/absence matrix irrespective of allele content might be an additional option. As this depends on sampling across species being reasonably even and a random distribution of non-informative instances of missing data, however, further exploration of this approach is needed. Properly chosen data summary approaches to inferring species trees from SNP data may represent a potential alternative to currently available individual-level coalescent analyses especially for quick data exploration and when dealing with computationally demanding or patchy datasets. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Are Antarctic minke whales unusually abundant because of 20th century whaling?

PubMed

Ruegg, Kristen C; Anderson, Eric C; Scott Baker, C; Vant, Murdoch; Jackson, Jennifer A; Palumbi, Stephen R

2010-01-01

Severe declines in megafauna worldwide illuminate the role of top predators in ecosystem structure. In the Antarctic, the Krill Surplus Hypothesis posits that the killing of more than 2 million large whales led to competitive release for smaller krill-eating species like the Antarctic minke whale. If true, the current size of the Antarctic minke whale population may be unusually high as an indirect result of whaling. Here, we estimate the long-term population size of the Antarctic minke whale prior to whaling by sequencing 11 nuclear genetic markers from 52 modern samples purchased in Japanese meat markets. We use coalescent simulations to explore the potential influence of population substructure and find that even though our samples are drawn from a limited geographic area, our estimate reflects ocean-wide genetic diversity. Using Bayesian estimates of the mutation rate and coalescent-based analyses of genetic diversity across loci, we calculate the long-term population size of the Antarctic minke whale to be 670,000 individuals (95% confidence interval: 374,000-1,150,000). Our estimate of long-term abundance is similar to, or greater than, contemporary abundance estimates, suggesting that managing Antarctic ecosystems under the assumption that Antarctic minke whales are unusually abundant is not warranted.

Nuclear genomic sequences reveal that polar bears are an old and distinct bear lineage.

PubMed

Hailer, Frank; Kutschera, Verena E; Hallström, Björn M; Klassert, Denise; Fain, Steven R; Leonard, Jennifer A; Arnason, Ulfur; Janke, Axel

2012-04-20

Recent studies have shown that the polar bear matriline (mitochondrial DNA) evolved from a brown bear lineage since the late Pleistocene, potentially indicating rapid speciation and adaption to arctic conditions. Here, we present a high-resolution data set from multiple independent loci across the nuclear genomes of a broad sample of polar, brown, and black bears. Bayesian coalescent analyses place polar bears outside the brown bear clade and date the divergence much earlier, in the middle Pleistocene, about 600 (338 to 934) thousand years ago. This provides more time for polar bear evolution and confirms previous suggestions that polar bears carry introgressed brown bear mitochondrial DNA due to past hybridization. Our results highlight that multilocus genomic analyses are crucial for an accurate understanding of evolutionary history.

Genealogical Working Distributions for Bayesian Model Testing with Phylogenetic Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Suchard, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Marginal likelihood estimates to compare models using Bayes factors frequently accompany Bayesian phylogenetic inference. Approaches to estimate marginal likelihoods have garnered increased attention over the past decade. In particular, the introduction of path sampling (PS) and stepping-stone sampling (SS) into Bayesian phylogenetics has tremendously improved the accuracy of model selection. These sampling techniques are now used to evaluate complex evolutionary and population genetic models on empirical data sets, but considerable computational demands hamper their widespread adoption. Further, when very diffuse, but proper priors are specified for model parameters, numerical issues complicate the exploration of the priors, a necessary step in marginal likelihood estimation using PS or SS. To avoid such instabilities, generalized SS (GSS) has recently been proposed, introducing the concept of “working distributions” to facilitate—or shorten—the integration process that underlies marginal likelihood estimation. However, the need to fix the tree topology currently limits GSS in a coalescent-based framework. Here, we extend GSS by relaxing the fixed underlying tree topology assumption. To this purpose, we introduce a “working” distribution on the space of genealogies, which enables estimating marginal likelihoods while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. We propose two different “working” distributions that help GSS to outperform PS and SS in terms of accuracy when comparing demographic and evolutionary models applied to synthetic data and real-world examples. Further, we show that the use of very diffuse priors can lead to a considerable overestimation in marginal likelihood when using PS and SS, while still retrieving the correct marginal likelihood using both GSS approaches. The methods used in this article are available in BEAST, a powerful user-friendly software package to perform Bayesian evolutionary analyses. PMID:26526428

Species trees for the tree swallows (Genus Tachycineta): an alternative phylogenetic hypothesis to the mitochondrial gene tree.

PubMed

Dor, Roi; Carling, Matthew D; Lovette, Irby J; Sheldon, Frederick H; Winkler, David W

2012-10-01

The New World swallow genus Tachycineta comprises nine species that collectively have a wide geographic distribution and remarkable variation both within- and among-species in ecologically important traits. Existing phylogenetic hypotheses for Tachycineta are based on mitochondrial DNA sequences, thus they provide estimates of a single gene tree. In this study we sequenced multiple individuals from each species at 16 nuclear intron loci. We used gene concatenated approaches (Bayesian and maximum likelihood) as well as coalescent-based species tree inference to reconstruct phylogenetic relationships of the genus. We examined the concordance and conflict between the nuclear and mitochondrial trees and between concatenated and coalescent-based inferences. Our results provide an alternative phylogenetic hypothesis to the existing mitochondrial DNA estimate of phylogeny. This new hypothesis provides a more accurate framework in which to explore trait evolution and examine the evolution of the mitochondrial genome in this group. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evolution of the viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus: divergence, selection and origin.

PubMed

He, Mei; Yan, Xue-Chun; Liang, Yang; Sun, Xiao-Wen; Teng, Chun-Bo

2014-08-01

Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) is an economically significant rhabdovirus that affects an increasing number of freshwater and marine fish species. Extensive studies have been conducted on the molecular epizootiology, genetic diversity, and phylogeny of VHSV. However, there are discrepancies between the reported estimates of the nucleotide substitution rate for the G gene and the divergence times for the genotypes. Herein, Bayesian coalescent analyses were conducted to the time-stamped entire coding sequences of the six VHSV genes. Rate estimates based on the G gene indicated that the marine genotypes/subtypes might not all evolve slower than their major European freshwater counterpart. Age calculations on the six genes revealed that the first bifurcation event of the analyzed isolates might have taken place within the last 300 years, which was much younger than previously thought. Selection analyses suggested that two codons of the G gene might be positively selected. Surveys of codon usage bias showed that the P, M and NV genes exhibited genotype-specific variations. Furthermore, we proposed that VHSV originated from the Pacific Northwest of North America. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population dynamics of American horseshoe crabs-historic climatic events and recent anthropogenic pressures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faurby, S.; King, T.L.; Obst, M.; Hallerman, E.M.; Pertoldi, C.; Funch, P.

2010-01-01

Populations of the American horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, have declined, but neither the causes nor the magnitude are fully understood. In order to evaluate historic demography, variation at 12 microsatellite DNA loci surveyed in 1218 L. polyphemus sampled from 28 localities was analysed with Bayesian coalescent-based methods. The analysis showed strong declines in population sizes throughout the species' distribution except in the geographically isolated southern-most population in Mexico, where a strong increase in population size was inferred. Analyses suggested that demographic changes in the core of the distribution occurred in association with the recolonization after the Ice Age and also by anthropogenic effects, such as the past overharvest of the species for fertilizer or the current use of the animals as bait for American eel (Anguilla rostrata) and whelk (Busycon spp.) fisheries. This study highlights the importance of considering both climatic changes and anthropogenic effects in efforts to understand population dynamics-a topic which is highly relevant in the ongoing assessments of the effects of climate change and overharvest. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Population dynamics of American horseshoe crabs--historic climatic events and recent anthropogenic pressures.

PubMed

Faurby, Søren; King, Tim L; Obst, Matthias; Hallerman, Eric M; Pertoldi, Cino; Funch, Peter

2010-08-01

Populations of the American horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, have declined, but neither the causes nor the magnitude are fully understood. In order to evaluate historic demography, variation at 12 microsatellite DNA loci surveyed in 1218 L. polyphemus sampled from 28 localities was analysed with Bayesian coalescent-based methods. The analysis showed strong declines in population sizes throughout the species' distribution except in the geographically isolated southern-most population in Mexico, where a strong increase in population size was inferred. Analyses suggested that demographic changes in the core of the distribution occurred in association with the recolonization after the Ice Age and also by anthropogenic effects, such as the past overharvest of the species for fertilizer or the current use of the animals as bait for American eel (Anguilla rostrata) and whelk (Busycon spp.) fisheries. This study highlights the importance of considering both climatic changes and anthropogenic effects in efforts to understand population dynamics--a topic which is highly relevant in the ongoing assessments of the effects of climate change and overharvest.

Phylogenomic analysis of a rapid radiation of misfit fishes (Syngnathiformes) using ultraconserved elements.

PubMed

Longo, S J; Faircloth, B C; Meyer, A; Westneat, M W; Alfaro, M E; Wainwright, P C

2017-08-01

Phylogenetics is undergoing a revolution as large-scale molecular datasets reveal unexpected but repeatable rearrangements of clades that were previously thought to be disparate lineages. One of the most unusual clades of fishes that has been found using large-scale molecular datasets is an expanded Syngnathiformes including traditional long-snouted syngnathiform lineages (Aulostomidae, Centriscidae, Fistulariidae, Solenostomidae, Syngnathidae), as well as a diverse set of largely benthic-associated fishes (Callionymoidei, Dactylopteridae, Mullidae, Pegasidae) that were previously dispersed across three orders. The monophyly of this surprising clade of fishes has been upheld by recent studies utilizing both nuclear and mitogenomic data, but the relationships among major lineages within Syngnathiformes remain ambiguous; previous analyses have inconsistent topologies and are plagued by low support at deep divergences between the major lineages. In this study, we use a dataset of ultraconserved elements (UCEs) to conduct the first phylogenomic study of Syngnathiformes. UCEs have been effective markers for resolving deep phylogenetic relationships in fishes and, combined with increased taxon sampling, we expected UCEs to resolve problematic syngnathiform relationships. Overall, UCEs were effective at resolving relationships within Syngnathiformes at a range of evolutionary timescales. We find consistent support for the monophyly of traditional long-snouted syngnathiform lineages (Aulostomidae, Centriscidae, Fistulariidae, Solenostomidae, Syngnathidae), which better agrees with morphological hypotheses than previously published topologies from molecular data. This result was supported by all Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses, was robust to differences in matrix completeness and potential sources of bias, and was highly supported in coalescent-based analyses in ASTRAL when matrices were filtered to contain the most phylogenetically informative loci. While Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses found support for a benthic-associated clade (Callionymidae, Dactylopteridae, Mullidae, and Pegasidae) as sister to the long-snouted clade, this result was not replicated in the ASTRAL analyses. The base of our phylogeny is characterized by short internodes separating major syngnathiform lineages and is consistent with the hypothesis of an ancient rapid radiation at the base of Syngnathiformes. Syngnathiformes therefore present an exciting opportunity to study patterns of morphological variation and functional innovation arising from rapid but ancient radiation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A multilocus perspective on the speciation history of a North American aridland toad (Anaxyrus punctatus).

PubMed

Bryson, Robert W; Jaeger, Jef R; Lemos-Espinal, Julio A; Lazcano, David

2012-09-01

Interpretations of phylogeographic patterns can change when analyses shift from single gene-tree to multilocus coalescent analyses. Using multilocus coalescent approaches, a species tree and divergence times can be estimated from a set of gene trees while accounting for gene-tree stochasticity. We utilized the conceptual strengths of a multilocus coalescent approach coupled with complete range-wide sampling to examine the speciation history of a broadly distributed, North American warm-desert toad, Anaxyrus punctatus. Phylogenetic analyses provided strong support for three major lineages within A. punctatus. Each lineage broadly corresponded to one of three desert regions. Early speciation in A. punctatus appeared linked to late Miocene-Pliocene development of the Baja California peninsula. This event was likely followed by a Pleistocene divergence associated with the separation of the Chihuahuan and Sonoran Deserts. Our multilocus coalescent-based reconstruction provides an informative contrast to previous single gene-tree estimates of the evolutionary history of A. punctatus. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Possible Geographic Origin of Endemic Hepatitis C Virus 6a in Hong Kong: Evidences for the Association with Vietnamese Immigration

PubMed Central

Zhou, Xiaoming; Chan, Paul K. S.; Tam, John S.; Tang, Julian W.

2011-01-01

Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV) 6a accounts for 23.6% of all HCV infections of the general population and 58.5% of intravenous drug users in Hong Kong. However, the geographical origin of this highly predominant HCV subgenotype is largely unknown. This study explores a hypothesis for one possible transmission route of HCV 6a to Hong Kong. Methods NS5A sequences derived from 26 HCV 6a samples were chosen from a five year period (1999–2004) from epidemiologically unrelated patients from Hong Kong. Partial-NS5A sequences (513-bp from nt 6728 to 7240) were adopted for Bayesian coalescent analysis to reconstruct the evolutionary history of HCV infections in Hong Kong using the BEAST v1.3 program. A rooted phylogenetic tree was drawn for these sequences by alignment with reference Vietnamese sequences. Demographic data were accessed from “The Statistic Yearbooks of Hong Kong”. Results Bayesian coalescent analysis showed that the rapid increase in 6a infections, which had increased more than 90-fold in Hong Kong from 1986 to 1994 correlated to two peaks of Vietnamese immigration to Hong Kong from 1978 to 1997. The second peak, which occurred from 1987 through 1997, overlapped with the rapid increase of HCV 6a occurrence in Hong Kong. Phylogenetic analyses have further revealed that HCV 6a strains from Vietnam may be ancestral to Hong Kong counterparts. Conclusions The high predominance of HCV 6a infections in Hong Kong was possibly associated with Vietnamese immigration during 1987–1997. PMID:21931867

A possible geographic origin of endemic hepatitis C virus 6a in Hong Kong: evidences for the association with Vietnamese immigration.

PubMed

Zhou, Xiaoming; Chan, Paul K S; Tam, John S; Tang, Julian W

2011-01-01

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) 6a accounts for 23.6% of all HCV infections of the general population and 58.5% of intravenous drug users in Hong Kong. However, the geographical origin of this highly predominant HCV subgenotype is largely unknown. This study explores a hypothesis for one possible transmission route of HCV 6a to Hong Kong. NS5A sequences derived from 26 HCV 6a samples were chosen from a five year period (1999-2004) from epidemiologically unrelated patients from Hong Kong. Partial-NS5A sequences (513-bp from nt 6728 to 7240) were adopted for Bayesian coalescent analysis to reconstruct the evolutionary history of HCV infections in Hong Kong using the BEAST v1.3 program. A rooted phylogenetic tree was drawn for these sequences by alignment with reference Vietnamese sequences. Demographic data were accessed from "The Statistic Yearbooks of Hong Kong". Bayesian coalescent analysis showed that the rapid increase in 6a infections, which had increased more than 90-fold in Hong Kong from 1986 to 1994 correlated to two peaks of Vietnamese immigration to Hong Kong from 1978 to 1997. The second peak, which occurred from 1987 through 1997, overlapped with the rapid increase of HCV 6a occurrence in Hong Kong. Phylogenetic analyses have further revealed that HCV 6a strains from Vietnam may be ancestral to Hong Kong counterparts. The high predominance of HCV 6a infections in Hong Kong was possibly associated with Vietnamese immigration during 1987-1997.

Analyzing contentious relationships and outlier genes in phylogenomics.

PubMed

Walker, Joseph F; Brown, Joseph W; Smith, Stephen A

2018-06-08

Recent studies have demonstrated that conflict is common among gene trees in phylogenomic studies, and that less than one percent of genes may ultimately drive species tree inference in supermatrix analyses. Here, we examined two datasets where supermatrix and coalescent-based species trees conflict. We identified two highly influential "outlier" genes in each dataset. When removed from each dataset, the inferred supermatrix trees matched the topologies obtained from coalescent analyses. We also demonstrate that, while the outlier genes in the vertebrate dataset have been shown in a previous study to be the result of errors in orthology detection, the outlier genes from a plant dataset did not exhibit any obvious systematic error and therefore may be the result of some biological process yet to be determined. While topological comparisons among a small set of alternate topologies can be helpful in discovering outlier genes, they can be limited in several ways, such as assuming all genes share the same topology. Coalescent species tree methods relax this assumption but do not explicitly facilitate the examination of specific edges. Coalescent methods often also assume that conflict is the result of incomplete lineage sorting (ILS). Here we explored a framework that allows for quickly examining alternative edges and support for large phylogenomic datasets that does not assume a single topology for all genes. For both datasets, these analyses provided detailed results confirming the support for coalescent-based topologies. This framework suggests that we can improve our understanding of the underlying signal in phylogenomic datasets by asking more targeted edge-based questions.

Cryptic genetic diversity, population structure, and gene flow in the Mojave rattlesnake (Crotalus scutulatus).

PubMed

Schield, Drew R; Adams, Richard H; Card, Daren C; Corbin, Andrew B; Jezkova, Tereza; Hales, Nicole R; Meik, Jesse M; Perry, Blair W; Spencer, Carol L; Smith, Lydia L; García, Gustavo Campillo; Bouzid, Nassima M; Strickland, Jason L; Parkinson, Christopher L; Borja, Miguel; Castañeda-Gaytán, Gamaliel; Bryson, Robert W; Flores-Villela, Oscar A; Mackessy, Stephen P; Castoe, Todd A

2018-06-15

The Mojave rattlesnake (Crotalus scutulatus) inhabits deserts and arid grasslands of the western United States and Mexico. Despite considerable interest in its highly toxic venom and the recognition of two subspecies, no molecular studies have characterized range-wide genetic diversity and population structure or tested species limits within C. scutulatus. We used mitochondrial DNA and thousands of nuclear loci from double-digest restriction site associated DNA sequencing to infer population genetic structure throughout the range of C. scutulatus, and to evaluate divergence times and gene flow between populations. We find strong support for several divergent mitochondrial and nuclear clades of C. scutulatus, including splits coincident with two major phylogeographic barriers: the Continental Divide and the elevational increase associated with the Central Mexican Plateau. We apply Bayesian clustering, phylogenetic inference, and coalescent-based species delimitation to our nuclear genetic data to test hypotheses of population structure. We also performed demographic analyses to test hypotheses relating to population divergence and gene flow. Collectively, our results support the existence of four distinct lineages within C. scutulatus, and genetically defined populations do not correspond with currently recognized subspecies ranges. Finally, we use approximate Bayesian computation to test hypotheses of divergence among multiple rattlesnake species groups distributed across the Continental Divide, and find evidence for co-divergence at this boundary during the mid-Pleistocene. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Genetic homogeneity of the invasive lionfish across the Northwestern Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico based on Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms.

PubMed

Pérez-Portela, R; Bumford, A; Coffman, B; Wedelich, S; Davenport, M; Fogg, A; Swenarton, M K; Coleman, F; Johnston, M A; Crawford, D L; Oleksiak, M F

2018-03-22

Despite the devastating impact of the lionfish (Pterois volitans) invasion on NW Atlantic ecosystems, little genetic information about the invasion process is available. We applied Genotyping by Sequencing techniques to identify 1,220 single nucleotide polymorphic sites (SNPs) from 162 lionfish samples collected between 2013 and 2015 from two areas chronologically identified as the first and last invaded areas in US waters: the east coast of Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. We used population genomic analyses, including phylogenetic reconstruction, Bayesian clustering, genetic distances, Discriminant Analyses of Principal Components, and coalescence simulations for detection of outlier SNPs, to understand genetic trends relevant to the lionfish's long-term persistence. We found no significant differences in genetic structure or diversity between the two areas (F ST p-values > 0.01, and t-test p-values > 0.05). In fact, our genomic analyses showed genetic homogeneity, with enough gene flow between the east coast of Florida and Gulf of Mexico to erase previous signals of genetic divergence detected between these areas, secondary spreading, and bottlenecks in the Gulf of Mexico. These findings suggest rapid genetic changes over space and time during the invasion, resulting in one panmictic population with no signs of divergence between areas due to local adaptation.

Unravelling the genetic differentiation among varieties of the Neotropical savanna tree Hancornia speciosa Gomes.

PubMed

Collevatti, Rosane G; Rodrigues, Eduardo E; Vitorino, Luciana C; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S; Chaves, Lázaro J; Telles, Mariana P C

2018-04-20

Spatial distribution of species genetic diversity is often driven by geographical distance (isolation by distance) or environmental conditions (isolation by environment), especially under climate change scenarios such as Quaternary glaciations. Here, we used coalescent analyses coupled with ecological niche modelling (ENM), spatially explicit quantile regression analyses and the multiple matrix regression with randomization (MMRR) approach to unravel the patterns of genetic differentiation in the widely distributed Neotropical savanna tree, Hancornia speciosa (Apocynaceae). Due to its high morphological differentiation, the species was originally classified into six botanical varieties by Monachino, and has recently been recognized as only two varieties by Flora do Brasil 2020. Thus, H. speciosa is a good biological model for learning about evolution of phenotypic plasticity under genetic and ecological effects, and predicting their responses to changing environmental conditions. We sampled 28 populations (777 individuals) of Monachino's four varieties of H. speciosa and used seven microsatellite loci to genotype them. Bayesian clustering showed five distinct genetic groups (K = 5) with high admixture among Monachino's varieties, mainly among populations in the central area of the species geographical range. Genetic differentiation among Monachino's varieties was lower than the genetic differentiation among populations within varieties, with higher within-population inbreeding. A high historical connectivity among populations of the central Cerrado shown by coalescent analyses may explain the high admixture among varieties. In addition, areas of higher climatic suitability also presented higher genetic diversity in such a way that the wide historical refugium across central Brazil might have promoted the long-term connectivity among populations. Yet, FST was significantly related to geographic distances, but not to environmental distances, and coalescent analyses and ENM predicted a demographical scenario of quasi-stability through time. Our findings show that demographical history and isolation by distance, but not isolation by environment, drove genetic differentiation of populations. Finally, the genetic clusters do not support the two recently recognized botanical varieties of H. speciosa, but partially support Monachino's classification at least for the four sampled varieties, similar to morphological variation.

Congruence between distribution modelling and phylogeographical analyses reveals Quaternary survival of a toadflax species (Linaria elegans) in oceanic climate areas of a mountain ring range.

PubMed

Fernández-Mazuecos, Mario; Vargas, Pablo

2013-06-01

· The role of Quaternary climatic shifts in shaping the distribution of Linaria elegans, an Iberian annual plant, was investigated using species distribution modelling and molecular phylogeographical analyses. Three hypotheses are proposed to explain the Quaternary history of its mountain ring range. · The distribution of L. elegans was modelled using the maximum entropy method and projected to the last interglacial and to the last glacial maximum (LGM) using two different paleoclimatic models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC). Two nuclear and three plastid DNA regions were sequenced for 24 populations (119 individuals sampled). Bayesian phylogenetic, phylogeographical, dating and coalescent-based population genetic analyses were conducted. · Molecular analyses indicated the existence of northern and southern glacial refugia and supported two routes of post-glacial recolonization. These results were consistent with the LGM distribution as inferred under the CCSM paleoclimatic model (but not under the MIROC model). Isolation between two major refugia was dated back to the Riss or Mindel glaciations, > 100 kyr before present (bp). · The Atlantic distribution of inferred refugia suggests that the oceanic (buffered)-continental (harsh) gradient may have played a key and previously unrecognized role in determining Quaternary distribution shifts of Mediterranean plants. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

On incomplete sampling under birth-death models and connections to the sampling-based coalescent.

PubMed

Stadler, Tanja

2009-11-07

The constant rate birth-death process is used as a stochastic model for many biological systems, for example phylogenies or disease transmission. As the biological data are usually not fully available, it is crucial to understand the effect of incomplete sampling. In this paper, we analyze the constant rate birth-death process with incomplete sampling. We derive the density of the bifurcation events for trees on n leaves which evolved under this birth-death-sampling process. This density is used for calculating prior distributions in Bayesian inference programs and for efficiently simulating trees. We show that the birth-death-sampling process can be interpreted as a birth-death process with reduced rates and complete sampling. This shows that joint inference of birth rate, death rate and sampling probability is not possible. The birth-death-sampling process is compared to the sampling-based population genetics model, the coalescent. It is shown that despite many similarities between these two models, the distribution of bifurcation times remains different even in the case of very large population sizes. We illustrate these findings on an Hepatitis C virus dataset from Egypt. We show that the transmission times estimates are significantly different-the widely used Gamma statistic even changes its sign from negative to positive when switching from the coalescent to the birth-death process.

EggLib: processing, analysis and simulation tools for population genetics and genomics

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background With the considerable growth of available nucleotide sequence data over the last decade, integrated and flexible analytical tools have become a necessity. In particular, in the field of population genetics, there is a strong need for automated and reliable procedures to conduct repeatable and rapid polymorphism analyses, coalescent simulations, data manipulation and estimation of demographic parameters under a variety of scenarios. Results In this context, we present EggLib (Evolutionary Genetics and Genomics Library), a flexible and powerful C++/Python software package providing efficient and easy to use computational tools for sequence data management and extensive population genetic analyses on nucleotide sequence data. EggLib is a multifaceted project involving several integrated modules: an underlying computationally efficient C++ library (which can be used independently in pure C++ applications); two C++ programs; a Python package providing, among other features, a high level Python interface to the C++ library; and the egglib script which provides direct access to pre-programmed Python applications. Conclusions EggLib has been designed aiming to be both efficient and easy to use. A wide array of methods are implemented, including file format conversion, sequence alignment edition, coalescent simulations, neutrality tests and estimation of demographic parameters by Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Classes implementing different demographic scenarios for ABC analyses can easily be developed by the user and included to the package. EggLib source code is distributed freely under the GNU General Public License (GPL) from its website http://egglib.sourceforge.net/ where a full documentation and a manual can also be found and downloaded. PMID:22494792

EggLib: processing, analysis and simulation tools for population genetics and genomics.

PubMed

De Mita, Stéphane; Siol, Mathieu

2012-04-11

With the considerable growth of available nucleotide sequence data over the last decade, integrated and flexible analytical tools have become a necessity. In particular, in the field of population genetics, there is a strong need for automated and reliable procedures to conduct repeatable and rapid polymorphism analyses, coalescent simulations, data manipulation and estimation of demographic parameters under a variety of scenarios. In this context, we present EggLib (Evolutionary Genetics and Genomics Library), a flexible and powerful C++/Python software package providing efficient and easy to use computational tools for sequence data management and extensive population genetic analyses on nucleotide sequence data. EggLib is a multifaceted project involving several integrated modules: an underlying computationally efficient C++ library (which can be used independently in pure C++ applications); two C++ programs; a Python package providing, among other features, a high level Python interface to the C++ library; and the egglib script which provides direct access to pre-programmed Python applications. EggLib has been designed aiming to be both efficient and easy to use. A wide array of methods are implemented, including file format conversion, sequence alignment edition, coalescent simulations, neutrality tests and estimation of demographic parameters by Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Classes implementing different demographic scenarios for ABC analyses can easily be developed by the user and included to the package. EggLib source code is distributed freely under the GNU General Public License (GPL) from its website http://egglib.sourceforge.net/ where a full documentation and a manual can also be found and downloaded.

In the shadows: Phylogenomics and coalescent species delimitation unveil cryptic diversity in a Cerrado endemic lizard (Squamata: Tropidurus).

PubMed

Domingos, Fabricius M C B; Colli, Guarino R; Lemmon, Alan; Lemmon, Emily Moriarty; Beheregaray, Luciano B

2017-02-01

The recognition of cryptic diversity within geographically widespread species is gradually becoming a trend in the highly speciose Neotropical biomes. The statistical methods to recognise such cryptic lineages are rapidly advancing, but have rarely been applied to genomic-scale datasets. Herein, we used phylogenomic data to investigate phylogenetic history and cryptic diversity within Tropidurus itambere, a lizard endemic to the Cerrado biodiversity hotspot. We applied a series of phylogenetic methods to reconstruct evolutionary relationships and a coalescent Bayesian species delimitation approach (BPP) to clarify species limits. The BPP results suggest that the widespread nominal taxon comprises a complex of 5 highly supported and geographically structured cryptic species. We highlight and discuss the different topological patterns recovered by concatenated and coalescent species tree methods for these closely related lineages. Finally, we suggest that the existence of cryptic lineages in the Cerrado is much more common than traditionally thought, highlighting the value of using NGS data and coalescent techniques to investigate patterns of species diversity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian approach to multi-messenger astronomy: identification of gravitational-wave host galaxies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, XiLong; Messenger, Christopher; Heng, Ik Siong

We present a general framework for incorporating astrophysical information into Bayesian parameter estimation techniques used by gravitational wave data analysis to facilitate multi-messenger astronomy. Since the progenitors of transient gravitational wave events, such as compact binary coalescences, are likely to be associated with a host galaxy, improvements to the source sky location estimates through the use of host galaxy information are explored. To demonstrate how host galaxy properties can be included, we simulate a population of compact binary coalescences and show that for ∼8.5% of simulations within 200 Mpc, the top 10 most likely galaxies account for a ∼50% ofmore » the total probability of hosting a gravitational wave source. The true gravitational wave source host galaxy is in the top 10 galaxy candidates ∼10% of the time. Furthermore, we show that by including host galaxy information, a better estimate of the inclination angle of a compact binary gravitational wave source can be obtained. We also demonstrate the flexibility of our method by incorporating the use of either the B or K band into our analysis.« less

Impact of Bayesian Priors on the Characterization of Binary Black Hole Coalescences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vitale, Salvatore; Gerosa, Davide; Haster, Carl-Johan; Chatziioannou, Katerina; Zimmerman, Aaron

2017-12-01

In a regime where data are only mildly informative, prior choices can play a significant role in Bayesian statistical inference, potentially affecting the inferred physics. We show this is indeed the case for some of the parameters inferred from current gravitational-wave measurements of binary black hole coalescences. We reanalyze the first detections performed by the twin LIGO interferometers using alternative (and astrophysically motivated) prior assumptions. We find different prior distributions can introduce deviations in the resulting posteriors that impact the physical interpretation of these systems. For instance, (i) limits on the 90% credible interval on the effective black hole spin χeff are subject to variations of ˜10 % if a prior with black hole spins mostly aligned to the binary's angular momentum is considered instead of the standard choice of isotropic spin directions, and (ii) under priors motivated by the initial stellar mass function, we infer tighter constraints on the black hole masses, and in particular, we find no support for any of the inferred masses within the putative mass gap M ≲5 M⊙.

Impact of Bayesian Priors on the Characterization of Binary Black Hole Coalescences.

PubMed

Vitale, Salvatore; Gerosa, Davide; Haster, Carl-Johan; Chatziioannou, Katerina; Zimmerman, Aaron

2017-12-22

In a regime where data are only mildly informative, prior choices can play a significant role in Bayesian statistical inference, potentially affecting the inferred physics. We show this is indeed the case for some of the parameters inferred from current gravitational-wave measurements of binary black hole coalescences. We reanalyze the first detections performed by the twin LIGO interferometers using alternative (and astrophysically motivated) prior assumptions. We find different prior distributions can introduce deviations in the resulting posteriors that impact the physical interpretation of these systems. For instance, (i) limits on the 90% credible interval on the effective black hole spin χ_{eff} are subject to variations of ∼10% if a prior with black hole spins mostly aligned to the binary's angular momentum is considered instead of the standard choice of isotropic spin directions, and (ii) under priors motivated by the initial stellar mass function, we infer tighter constraints on the black hole masses, and in particular, we find no support for any of the inferred masses within the putative mass gap M≲5  M_{⊙}.

Applying species-tree analyses to deep phylogenetic histories: challenges and potential suggested from a survey of empirical phylogenetic studies.

PubMed

Lanier, Hayley C; Knowles, L Lacey

2015-02-01

Coalescent-based methods for species-tree estimation are becoming a dominant approach for reconstructing species histories from multi-locus data, with most of the studies examining these methodologies focused on recently diverged species. However, deeper phylogenies, such as the datasets that comprise many Tree of Life (ToL) studies, also exhibit gene-tree discordance. This discord may also arise from the stochastic sorting of gene lineages during the speciation process (i.e., reflecting the random coalescence of gene lineages in ancestral populations). It remains unknown whether guidelines regarding methodologies and numbers of loci established by simulation studies at shallow tree depths translate into accurate species relationships for deeper phylogenetic histories. We address this knowledge gap and specifically identify the challenges and limitations of species-tree methods that account for coalescent variance for deeper phylogenies. Using simulated data with characteristics informed by empirical studies, we evaluate both the accuracy of estimated species trees and the characteristics associated with recalcitrant nodes, with a specific focus on whether coalescent variance is generally responsible for the lack of resolution. By determining the proportion of coalescent genealogies that support a particular node, we demonstrate that (1) species-tree methods account for coalescent variance at deep nodes and (2) mutational variance - not gene-tree discord arising from the coalescent - posed the primary challenge for accurate reconstruction across the tree. For example, many nodes were accurately resolved despite predicted discord from the random coalescence of gene lineages and nodes with poor support were distributed across a range of depths (i.e., they were not restricted to a particular recent divergences). Given their broad taxonomic scope and large sampling of taxa, deep level phylogenies pose several potential methodological complications including difficulties with MCMC convergence and estimation of requisite population genetic parameters for coalescent-based approaches. Despite these difficulties, the findings generally support the utility of species-tree analyses for the estimation of species relationships throughout the ToL. We discuss strategies for successful application of species-tree approaches to deep phylogenies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Micro- and macro-geographic scale effect on the molecular imprint of selection and adaptation in Norway spruce.

PubMed

Scalfi, Marta; Mosca, Elena; Di Pierro, Erica Adele; Troggio, Michela; Vendramin, Giovanni Giuseppe; Sperisen, Christoph; La Porta, Nicola; Neale, David B

2014-01-01

Forest tree species of temperate and boreal regions have undergone a long history of demographic changes and evolutionary adaptations. The main objective of this study was to detect signals of selection in Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst), at different sampling-scales and to investigate, accounting for population structure, the effect of environment on species genetic diversity. A total of 384 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) representing 290 genes were genotyped at two geographic scales: across 12 populations distributed along two altitudinal-transects in the Alps (micro-geographic scale), and across 27 populations belonging to the range of Norway spruce in central and south-east Europe (macro-geographic scale). At the macrogeographic scale, principal component analysis combined with Bayesian clustering revealed three major clusters, corresponding to the main areas of southern spruce occurrence, i.e. the Alps, Carpathians, and Hercynia. The populations along the altitudinal transects were not differentiated. To assess the role of selection in structuring genetic variation, we applied a Bayesian and coalescent-based F(ST)-outlier method and tested for correlations between allele frequencies and climatic variables using regression analyses. At the macro-geographic scale, the F(ST)-outlier methods detected together 11 F(ST)-outliers. Six outliers were detected when the same analyses were carried out taking into account the genetic structure. Regression analyses with population structure correction resulted in the identification of two (micro-geographic scale) and 38 SNPs (macro-geographic scale) significantly correlated with temperature and/or precipitation. Six of these loci overlapped with F(ST)-outliers, among them two loci encoding an enzyme involved in riboflavin biosynthesis and a sucrose synthase. The results of this study indicate a strong relationship between genetic and environmental variation at both geographic scales. It also suggests that an integrative approach combining different outlier detection methods and population sampling at different geographic scales is useful to identify loci potentially involved in adaptation.

Micro- and Macro-Geographic Scale Effect on the Molecular Imprint of Selection and Adaptation in Norway Spruce

PubMed Central

Scalfi, Marta; Mosca, Elena; Di Pierro, Erica Adele; Troggio, Michela; Vendramin, Giovanni Giuseppe; Sperisen, Christoph; La Porta, Nicola; Neale, David B.

2014-01-01

Forest tree species of temperate and boreal regions have undergone a long history of demographic changes and evolutionary adaptations. The main objective of this study was to detect signals of selection in Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst), at different sampling-scales and to investigate, accounting for population structure, the effect of environment on species genetic diversity. A total of 384 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) representing 290 genes were genotyped at two geographic scales: across 12 populations distributed along two altitudinal-transects in the Alps (micro-geographic scale), and across 27 populations belonging to the range of Norway spruce in central and south-east Europe (macro-geographic scale). At the macrogeographic scale, principal component analysis combined with Bayesian clustering revealed three major clusters, corresponding to the main areas of southern spruce occurrence, i.e. the Alps, Carpathians, and Hercynia. The populations along the altitudinal transects were not differentiated. To assess the role of selection in structuring genetic variation, we applied a Bayesian and coalescent-based F ST-outlier method and tested for correlations between allele frequencies and climatic variables using regression analyses. At the macro-geographic scale, the F ST-outlier methods detected together 11 F ST-outliers. Six outliers were detected when the same analyses were carried out taking into account the genetic structure. Regression analyses with population structure correction resulted in the identification of two (micro-geographic scale) and 38 SNPs (macro-geographic scale) significantly correlated with temperature and/or precipitation. Six of these loci overlapped with F ST-outliers, among them two loci encoding an enzyme involved in riboflavin biosynthesis and a sucrose synthase. The results of this study indicate a strong relationship between genetic and environmental variation at both geographic scales. It also suggests that an integrative approach combining different outlier detection methods and population sampling at different geographic scales is useful to identify loci potentially involved in adaptation. PMID:25551624

Divergence and codon usage bias of Betanodavirus, a neurotropic pathogen in fish.

PubMed

He, Mei; Teng, Chun-Bo

2015-02-01

Betanodavirus is a small bipartite RNA virus of global economical significance that can cause severe neurological disorders to an increasing number of marine fish species. Herein, to further the understanding of the evolution of betanodavirus, Bayesian coalescent analyses were conducted to the time-stamped entire coding sequences of their RNA polymerase and coat protein genes. Similar moderate nucleotide substitution rates were then estimated for the two genes. According to age calculations, the divergence of the two genes into the four genotypes initiated nearly simultaneously at ∼700 years ago, despite the different scenarios, whereas the seven analyzed chimeric isolates might be the outcomes of a single genetic reassortment event taking place in the early 1980s in Southern Europe. Furthermore, codon usage bias analyses indicated that each gene had influences in addition to mutational bias and codon choice of betanodavirus was not completely complied with that of fish host. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Holarctic genetic structure and range dynamics in the woolly mammoth

PubMed Central

Palkopoulou, Eleftheria; Dalén, Love; Lister, Adrian M.; Vartanyan, Sergey; Sablin, Mikhail; Sher, Andrei; Edmark, Veronica Nyström; Brandström, Mikael D.; Germonpré, Mietje; Barnes, Ian; Thomas, Jessica A.

2013-01-01

Ancient DNA analyses have provided enhanced resolution of population histories in many Pleistocene taxa. However, most studies are spatially restricted, making inference of species-level biogeographic histories difficult. Here, we analyse mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation in the woolly mammoth from across its Holarctic range to reconstruct its history over the last 200 thousand years (kyr). We identify a previously undocumented major mtDNA lineage in Europe, which was replaced by another major mtDNA lineage 32–34 kyr before present (BP). Coalescent simulations provide support for demographic expansions at approximately 121 kyr BP, suggesting that the previous interglacial was an important driver for demography and intraspecific genetic divergence. Furthermore, our results suggest an expansion into Eurasia from America around 66 kyr BP, coinciding with the first exposure of the Bering Land Bridge during the Late Pleistocene. Bayesian inference indicates Late Pleistocene demographic stability until 20–15 kyr BP, when a severe population size decline occurred. PMID:24026825

When do species-tree and concatenated estimates disagree? An empirical analysis with higher-level scincid lizard phylogeny.

PubMed

Lambert, Shea M; Reeder, Tod W; Wiens, John J

2015-01-01

Simulation studies suggest that coalescent-based species-tree methods are generally more accurate than concatenated analyses. However, these species-tree methods remain impractical for many large datasets. Thus, a critical but unresolved issue is when and why concatenated and coalescent species-tree estimates will differ. We predict such differences for branches in concatenated trees that are short, weakly supported, and have conflicting gene trees. We test these predictions in Scincidae, the largest lizard family, with data from 10 nuclear genes for 17 ingroup taxa and 44 genes for 12 taxa. We support our initial predictions, andsuggest that simply considering uncertainty in concatenated trees may sometimes encompass the differences between these methods. We also found that relaxed-clock concatenated trees can be surprisingly similar to the species-tree estimate. Remarkably, the coalescent species-tree estimates had slightly lower support values when based on many more genes (44 vs. 10) and a small (∼30%) reduction in taxon sampling. Thus, taxon sampling may be more important than gene sampling when applying species-tree methods to deep phylogenetic questions. Finally, our coalescent species-tree estimates tentatively support division of Scincidae into three monophyletic subfamilies, a result otherwise found only in concatenated analyses with extensive species sampling. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Weighted Statistical Binning: Enabling Statistically Consistent Genome-Scale Phylogenetic Analyses

PubMed Central

Bayzid, Md Shamsuzzoha; Mirarab, Siavash; Boussau, Bastien; Warnow, Tandy

2015-01-01

Because biological processes can result in different loci having different evolutionary histories, species tree estimation requires multiple loci from across multiple genomes. While many processes can result in discord between gene trees and species trees, incomplete lineage sorting (ILS), modeled by the multi-species coalescent, is considered to be a dominant cause for gene tree heterogeneity. Coalescent-based methods have been developed to estimate species trees, many of which operate by combining estimated gene trees, and so are called "summary methods". Because summary methods are generally fast (and much faster than more complicated coalescent-based methods that co-estimate gene trees and species trees), they have become very popular techniques for estimating species trees from multiple loci. However, recent studies have established that summary methods can have reduced accuracy in the presence of gene tree estimation error, and also that many biological datasets have substantial gene tree estimation error, so that summary methods may not be highly accurate in biologically realistic conditions. Mirarab et al. (Science 2014) presented the "statistical binning" technique to improve gene tree estimation in multi-locus analyses, and showed that it improved the accuracy of MP-EST, one of the most popular coalescent-based summary methods. Statistical binning, which uses a simple heuristic to evaluate "combinability" and then uses the larger sets of genes to re-calculate gene trees, has good empirical performance, but using statistical binning within a phylogenomic pipeline does not have the desirable property of being statistically consistent. We show that weighting the re-calculated gene trees by the bin sizes makes statistical binning statistically consistent under the multispecies coalescent, and maintains the good empirical performance. Thus, "weighted statistical binning" enables highly accurate genome-scale species tree estimation, and is also statistically consistent under the multi-species coalescent model. New data used in this study are available at DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.1411146, and the software is available at https://github.com/smirarab/binning. PMID:26086579

Phylogenetic analysis at deep timescales: unreliable gene trees, bypassed hidden support, and the coalescence/concatalescence conundrum.

PubMed

Gatesy, John; Springer, Mark S

2014-11-01

Large datasets are required to solve difficult phylogenetic problems that are deep in the Tree of Life. Currently, two divergent systematic methods are commonly applied to such datasets: the traditional supermatrix approach (= concatenation) and "shortcut" coalescence (= coalescence methods wherein gene trees and the species tree are not co-estimated). When applied to ancient clades, these contrasting frameworks often produce congruent results, but in recent phylogenetic analyses of Placentalia (placental mammals), this is not the case. A recent series of papers has alternatively disputed and defended the utility of shortcut coalescence methods at deep phylogenetic scales. Here, we examine this exchange in the context of published phylogenomic data from Mammalia; in particular we explore two critical issues - the delimitation of data partitions ("genes") in coalescence analysis and hidden support that emerges with the combination of such partitions in phylogenetic studies. Hidden support - increased support for a clade in combined analysis of all data partitions relative to the support evident in separate analyses of the various data partitions, is a hallmark of the supermatrix approach and a primary rationale for concatenating all characters into a single matrix. In the most extreme cases of hidden support, relationships that are contradicted by all gene trees are supported when all of the genes are analyzed together. A valid fear is that shortcut coalescence methods might bypass or distort character support that is hidden in individual loci because small gene fragments are analyzed in isolation. Given the extensive systematic database for Mammalia, the assumptions and applicability of shortcut coalescence methods can be assessed with rigor to complement a small but growing body of simulation work that has directly compared these methods to concatenation. We document several remarkable cases of hidden support in both supermatrix and coalescence paradigms and argue that in most instances, the emergent support in the shortcut coalescence analyses is an artifact. By referencing rigorous molecular clock studies of Mammalia, we suggest that inaccurate gene trees that imply unrealistically deep coalescences debilitate shortcut coalescence analyses of the placental dataset. We document contradictory coalescence results for Placentalia, and outline a critical conundrum that challenges the general utility of shortcut coalescence methods at deep phylogenetic scales. In particular, the basic unit of analysis in coalescence analysis, the coalescence-gene, is expected to shrink in size as more taxa are analyzed, but as the amount of data for reconstruction of a gene tree ratchets downward, the number of nodes in the gene tree that need to be resolved ratchets upward. Some advocates of shortcut coalescence methods have attempted to address problems with inaccurate gene trees by concatenating multiple coalescence-genes to yield "gene trees" that better match the species tree. However, this hybrid concatenation/coalescence approach, "concatalescence," contradicts the most basic biological rationale for performing a coalescence analysis in the first place. We discuss this reality in the context of recent simulation work that also suggests inaccurate reconstruction of gene trees is more problematic for shortcut coalescence methods than deep coalescence of independently segregating loci is for concatenation methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inference of Epidemiological Dynamics Based on Simulated Phylogenies Using Birth-Death and Coalescent Models

PubMed Central

Boskova, Veronika; Bonhoeffer, Sebastian; Stadler, Tanja

2014-01-01

Quantifying epidemiological dynamics is crucial for understanding and forecasting the spread of an epidemic. The coalescent and the birth-death model are used interchangeably to infer epidemiological parameters from the genealogical relationships of the pathogen population under study, which in turn are inferred from the pathogen genetic sequencing data. To compare the performance of these widely applied models, we performed a simulation study. We simulated phylogenetic trees under the constant rate birth-death model and the coalescent model with a deterministic exponentially growing infected population. For each tree, we re-estimated the epidemiological parameters using both a birth-death and a coalescent based method, implemented as an MCMC procedure in BEAST v2.0. In our analyses that estimate the growth rate of an epidemic based on simulated birth-death trees, the point estimates such as the maximum a posteriori/maximum likelihood estimates are not very different. However, the estimates of uncertainty are very different. The birth-death model had a higher coverage than the coalescent model, i.e. contained the true value in the highest posterior density (HPD) interval more often (2–13% vs. 31–75% error). The coverage of the coalescent decreases with decreasing basic reproductive ratio and increasing sampling probability of infecteds. We hypothesize that the biases in the coalescent are due to the assumption of deterministic rather than stochastic population size changes. Both methods performed reasonably well when analyzing trees simulated under the coalescent. The methods can also identify other key epidemiological parameters as long as one of the parameters is fixed to its true value. In summary, when using genetic data to estimate epidemic dynamics, our results suggest that the birth-death method will be less sensitive to population fluctuations of early outbreaks than the coalescent method that assumes a deterministic exponentially growing infected population. PMID:25375100

The conquering of North America: dated phylogenetic and biogeographic inference of migratory behavior in bee hummingbirds.

PubMed

Licona-Vera, Yuyini; Ornelas, Juan Francisco

2017-06-05

Geographical and temporal patterns of diversification in bee hummingbirds (Mellisugini) were assessed with respect to the evolution of migration, critical for colonization of North America. We generated a dated multilocus phylogeny of the Mellisugini based on a dense sampling using Bayesian inference, maximum-likelihood and maximum parsimony methods, and reconstructed the ancestral states of distributional areas in a Bayesian framework and migratory behavior using maximum parsimony, maximum-likelihood and re-rooting methods. All phylogenetic analyses confirmed monophyly of the Mellisugini and the inclusion of Atthis, Calothorax, Doricha, Eulidia, Mellisuga, Microstilbon, Myrmia, Tilmatura, and Thaumastura. Mellisugini consists of two clades: (1) South American species (including Tilmatura dupontii), and (2) species distributed in North and Central America and the Caribbean islands. The second clade consists of four subclades: Mexican (Calothorax, Doricha) and Caribbean (Archilochus, Calliphlox, Mellisuga) sheartails, Calypte, and Selasphorus (incl. Atthis). Coalescent-based dating places the origin of the Mellisugini in the mid-to-late Miocene, with crown ages of most subclades in the early Pliocene, and subsequent species splits in the Pleistocene. Bee hummingbirds reached western North America by the end of the Miocene and the ancestral mellisuginid (bee hummingbirds) was reconstructed as sedentary, with four independent gains of migratory behavior during the evolution of the Mellisugini. Early colonization of North America and subsequent evolution of migration best explained biogeographic and diversification patterns within the Mellisugini. The repeated evolution of long-distance migration by different lineages was critical for the colonization of North America, contributing to the radiation of bee hummingbirds. Comparative phylogeography is needed to test whether the repeated evolution of migration resulted from northward expansion of southern sedentary populations.

Unveiling an ancient biological invasion: molecular analysis of an old European alien, the crested porcupine (Hystrix cristata).

PubMed

Trucchi, Emiliano; Sbordoni, Valerio

2009-05-18

Biological invasions can be considered one of the main threats to biodiversity, and the recognition of common ecological and evolutionary features among invaders can help developing a predictive framework to control further invasions. In particular, the analysis of successful invasive species and of their autochthonous source populations by means of genetic, phylogeographic and demographic tools can provide novel insights into the study of biological invasion patterns. Today, long-term dynamics of biological invasions are still poorly understood and need further investigations. Moreover, distribution and molecular data on native populations could contribute to the recognition of common evolutionary features of successful aliens. We analyzed 2,195 mitochondrial base pairs, including Cytochrome b, Control Region and rRNA 12S, in 161 Italian and 27 African specimens and assessed the ancient invasive origin of Italian crested porcupine (Hystrix cristata) populations from Tunisia. Molecular coalescent-based Bayesian analyses proposed the Roman Age as a putative timeframe of introduction and suggested a retention of genetic diversity during the early phases of colonization. The characterization of the native African genetic background revealed the existence of two differentiated clades: a Mediterranean group and a Sub-Saharan one. Both standard population genetic and advanced molecular demography tools (Bayesian Skyline Plot) did not evidence a clear genetic signature of the expected increase in population size after introduction. Along with the genetic diversity retention during the bottlenecked steps of introduction, this finding could be better described by hypothesizing a multi-invasion event. Evidences of the ancient anthropogenic invasive origin of the Italian Hystrix cristata populations were clearly shown and the native African genetic background was preliminary described. A more complex pattern than a simple demographic exponential growth from a single propagule seems to have characterized this long-term invasion.

Bayesian techniques for analyzing group differences in the Iowa Gambling Task: A case study of intuitive and deliberate decision-makers.

PubMed

Steingroever, Helen; Pachur, Thorsten; Šmíra, Martin; Lee, Michael D

2018-06-01

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is one of the most popular experimental paradigms for comparing complex decision-making across groups. Most commonly, IGT behavior is analyzed using frequentist tests to compare performance across groups, and to compare inferred parameters of cognitive models developed for the IGT. Here, we present a Bayesian alternative based on Bayesian repeated-measures ANOVA for comparing performance, and a suite of three complementary model-based methods for assessing the cognitive processes underlying IGT performance. The three model-based methods involve Bayesian hierarchical parameter estimation, Bayes factor model comparison, and Bayesian latent-mixture modeling. We illustrate these Bayesian methods by applying them to test the extent to which differences in intuitive versus deliberate decision style are associated with differences in IGT performance. The results show that intuitive and deliberate decision-makers behave similarly on the IGT, and the modeling analyses consistently suggest that both groups of decision-makers rely on similar cognitive processes. Our results challenge the notion that individual differences in intuitive and deliberate decision styles have a broad impact on decision-making. They also highlight the advantages of Bayesian methods, especially their ability to quantify evidence in favor of the null hypothesis, and that they allow model-based analyses to incorporate hierarchical and latent-mixture structures.

An Experimental Study of the Fracture Coalescence Behaviour of Brittle Sandstone Specimens Containing Three Fissures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S. Q.; Yang, D. S.; Jing, H. W.; Li, Y. H.; Wang, S. Y.

2012-07-01

To analyse the fracture coalescence behaviour of rock, rectangular prismatic sandstone specimens (80 × 160 × 30 mm in size) containing three fissures were tested under uniaxial compression. The strength and deformation behaviours of the specimens are first analysed by investigating the effects of the ligament angle β2 on the peak strength, peak strain and crack initiation stress of the specimens. To confirm the sequence of crack coalescence, a photographic monitoring technique is used throughout the entire period of deformation. Based on the results, the relationship between the real-time crack coalescence process and the axial stress-strain curve of brittle sandstone specimens is also developed, and this relationship can be used to evaluate the macroscopic deformation characteristics of pre-cracked rock. The equivalent strain evolution fields of the specimen, with α = β1 = 45° and β2 = 90°, are obtained using the digital image correlation technique and show good agreement with the experimental results of pre-cracked brittle sandstone. These experimental results are expected to improve the understanding of fracture mechanisms and be used in rock engineering with intermittent structures, such as deep underground excavated tunnels.

Toward a DNA Taxonomy of Alpine Rhithrogena (Ephemeroptera: Heptageniidae) Using a Mixed Yule-Coalescent Analysis of Mitochondrial and Nuclear DNA

PubMed Central

Vuataz, Laurent; Sartori, Michel; Wagner, André; Monaghan, Michael T.

2011-01-01

Aquatic larvae of many Rhithrogena mayflies (Ephemeroptera) inhabit sensitive Alpine environments. A number of species are on the IUCN Red List and many recognized species have restricted distributions and are of conservation interest. Despite their ecological and conservation importance, ambiguous morphological differences among closely related species suggest that the current taxonomy may not accurately reflect the evolutionary diversity of the group. Here we examined the species status of nearly 50% of European Rhithrogena diversity using a widespread sampling scheme of Alpine species that included 22 type localities, general mixed Yule-coalescent (GMYC) model analysis of one standard mtDNA marker and one newly developed nDNA marker, and morphological identification where possible. Using sequences from 533 individuals from 144 sampling localities, we observed significant clustering of the mitochondrial (cox1) marker into 31 GMYC species. Twenty-one of these could be identified based on the presence of topotypes (expertly identified specimens from the species' type locality) or unambiguous morphology. These results strongly suggest the presence of both cryptic diversity and taxonomic oversplitting in Rhithrogena. Significant clustering was not detected with protein-coding nuclear PEPCK, although nine GMYC species were congruent with well supported terminal clusters of nDNA. Lack of greater congruence in the two data sets may be the result of incomplete sorting of ancestral polymorphism. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of both gene regions recovered four of the six recognized Rhithrogena species groups in our samples as monophyletic. Future development of more nuclear markers would facilitate multi-locus analysis of unresolved, closely related species pairs. The DNA taxonomy developed here lays the groundwork for a future revision of the important but cryptic Rhithrogena genus in Europe. PMID:21611178

Coalescent methods for estimating phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Liu, Liang; Yu, Lili; Kubatko, Laura; Pearl, Dennis K; Edwards, Scott V

2009-10-01

We review recent models to estimate phylogenetic trees under the multispecies coalescent. Although the distinction between gene trees and species trees has come to the fore of phylogenetics, only recently have methods been developed that explicitly estimate species trees. Of the several factors that can cause gene tree heterogeneity and discordance with the species tree, deep coalescence due to random genetic drift in branches of the species tree has been modeled most thoroughly. Bayesian approaches to estimating species trees utilizes two likelihood functions, one of which has been widely used in traditional phylogenetics and involves the model of nucleotide substitution, and the second of which is less familiar to phylogeneticists and involves the probability distribution of gene trees given a species tree. Other recent parametric and nonparametric methods for estimating species trees involve parsimony criteria, summary statistics, supertree and consensus methods. Species tree approaches are an appropriate goal for systematics, appear to work well in some cases where concatenation can be misleading, and suggest that sampling many independent loci will be paramount. Such methods can also be challenging to implement because of the complexity of the models and computational time. In addition, further elaboration of the simplest of coalescent models will be required to incorporate commonly known issues such as deviation from the molecular clock, gene flow and other genetic forces.

Identifying the rooted species tree from the distribution of unrooted gene trees under the coalescent.

PubMed

Allman, Elizabeth S; Degnan, James H; Rhodes, John A

2011-06-01

Gene trees are evolutionary trees representing the ancestry of genes sampled from multiple populations. Species trees represent populations of individuals-each with many genes-splitting into new populations or species. The coalescent process, which models ancestry of gene copies within populations, is often used to model the probability distribution of gene trees given a fixed species tree. This multispecies coalescent model provides a framework for phylogeneticists to infer species trees from gene trees using maximum likelihood or Bayesian approaches. Because the coalescent models a branching process over time, all trees are typically assumed to be rooted in this setting. Often, however, gene trees inferred by traditional phylogenetic methods are unrooted. We investigate probabilities of unrooted gene trees under the multispecies coalescent model. We show that when there are four species with one gene sampled per species, the distribution of unrooted gene tree topologies identifies the unrooted species tree topology and some, but not all, information in the species tree edges (branch lengths). The location of the root on the species tree is not identifiable in this situation. However, for 5 or more species with one gene sampled per species, we show that the distribution of unrooted gene tree topologies identifies the rooted species tree topology and all its internal branch lengths. The length of any pendant branch leading to a leaf of the species tree is also identifiable for any species from which more than one gene is sampled.

Spreading of hepatitis C virus subtypes 1a and 1b through the central region of Argentina.

PubMed

Culasso, Andrés Carlos Alberto; Farías, Adrián; Di Lello, Federico Alejandro; Golemba, Marcelo Darío; Ré, Viviana; Barbini, Luciana; Campos, Rodolfo

2014-08-01

The recent history of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) subtypes 1a and 1b in the central region of Argentina is hypothesized by phylogeographic reconstruction using coalescent based Bayesian analyses. Direct partial E2 sequences from HCV 1a and 1b infected patients attending different health-care centers of the country were analyzed. The inferred date of the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) for HCV-1a was: 1962 (between 1943 and 1977) and for HCV-1b was earlier: 1929 (between 1895 and 1953). Diverse ancestral populations were inferred from both subtypes in Córdoba and in Buenos Aires cities and after that, HCV spread within and between larger cities and to other smaller cities. The analyses suggested that HCV-1b was dispersed first and it is currently in a stationary phase whereas HCV-1a was dispersed latter and it is still in a growth phase. Finally, as it was observed in the developed countries, while the transmission of HCV-1b appears to have been somehow prevented, the HCV-1a may still represent a concern in the public health. Further work should be carried out to address their current transmission rate (and its main transmission route) in the Argentinean population. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

TIGER: A data analysis pipeline for testing the strong-field dynamics of general relativity with gravitational wave signals from coalescing compact binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agathos, M.; Del Pozzo, W.; Li, T. G. F.; Van Den Broeck, C.; Veitch, J.; Vitale, S.

2014-04-01

The direct detection of gravitational waves with upcoming second-generation gravitational wave observatories such as Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo will allow us to probe the genuinely strong-field dynamics of general relativity (GR) for the first time. We have developed a data analysis pipeline called TIGER (test infrastructure for general relativity), which uses signals from compact binary coalescences to perform a model-independent test of GR. In this paper we focus on signals from coalescing binary neutron stars, for which sufficiently accurate waveform models are already available which can be generated fast enough on a computer that they can be used in Bayesian inference. By performing numerical experiments in stationary, Gaussian noise, we show that for such systems, TIGER is robust against a number of unmodeled fundamental, astrophysical, and instrumental effects, such as differences between waveform approximants, a limited number of post-Newtonian phase contributions being known, the effects of neutron star tidal deformability on the orbital motion, neutron star spins, and instrumental calibration errors.

On the Evolutionary and Biogeographic History of Saxifraga sect. Trachyphyllum (Gaud.) Koch (Saxifragaceae Juss.)

PubMed Central

DeChaine, Eric G.; Anderson, Stacy A.; McNew, Jennifer M.; Wendling, Barry M.

2013-01-01

Arctic-alpine plants in the genus Saxifraga L. (Saxifragaceae Juss.) provide an excellent system for investigating the process of diversification in northern regions. Yet, sect. Trachyphyllum (Gaud.) Koch, which is comprised of about 8 to 26 species, has still not been explored by molecular systematists even though taxonomists concur that the section needs to be thoroughly re-examined. Our goals were to use chloroplast trnL-F and nuclear ITS DNA sequence data to circumscribe the section phylogenetically, test models of geographically-based population divergence, and assess the utility of morphological characters in estimating evolutionary relationships. To do so, we sequenced both genetic markers for 19 taxa within the section. The phylogenetic inferences of sect. Trachyphyllum using maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses showed that the section is polyphyletic, with S. aspera L. and S bryoides L. falling outside the main clade. In addition, the analyses supported several taxonomic re-classifications to prior names. We used two approaches to test biogeographic hypotheses: i) a coalescent approach in Mesquite to test the fit of our reconstructed gene trees to geographically-based models of population divergence and ii) a maximum likelihood inference in Lagrange. These tests uncovered strong support for an origin of the clade in the Southern Rocky Mountains of North America followed by dispersal and divergence episodes across refugia. Finally we adopted a stochastic character mapping approach in SIMMAP to investigate the utility of morphological characters in estimating evolutionary relationships among taxa. We found that few morphological characters were phylogenetically informative and many were misleading. Our molecular analyses provide a foundation for the diversity and evolutionary relationships within sect. Trachyphyllum and hypotheses for better understanding the patterns and processes of divergence in this section, other saxifrages, and plants inhabiting the North Pacific Rim. PMID:23922810

Molecular and morphological data reveal non-monophyly and speciation in imperiled freshwater mussels (Anodontoides and Strophitus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Chase; Johnson, Nathan A.; Pfeiffer, John M.; Gangloff, Michael M.

2018-01-01

Accurate taxonomic placement is vital to conservation efforts considering many intrinsic biological characteristics of understudied species are inferred from closely related taxa. The rayed creekshell, Anodontoides radiatus (Conrad, 1834), exists in the Gulf of Mexico drainages from western Florida to Louisiana and has been petitioned for listing under the Endangered Species Act. We set out to resolve the evolutionary history of A. radiatus, primarily generic placement and species boundaries, using phylogenetic, morphometric, and geographic information. Our molecular matrix contained 3 loci: cytochrome c oxidase subunit I, NADH dehydrogenase subunit I, and the nuclear-encoded ribosomal internal transcribed spacer I. We employed maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference to estimate a phylogeny and test the monophyly of Anodontoides and Strophitus. We implemented two coalescent-based species delimitation models to test seven species models and evaluate species boundaries within A. radiatus. Concomitant to molecular data, we also employed linear morphometrics and geographic information to further evaluate species boundaries. Molecular and morphological evidence supports the inclusion of A. radiatus in the genus Strophitus, and we resurrect the binomial Strophitus radiatus to reflect their shared common ancestry. We also found strong support for polyphyly in Strophitus and advocate the resurrection of the genus Pseudodontoideus to represent ‘Strophitus’ connasaugaensis and ‘Strophitus’ subvexus. Strophitus radiatus exists in six well-supported clades that were distinguished as evolutionary independent lineages using Bayesian inference, maximum likelihood, and coalescent-based species delimitation models. Our integrative approach found evidence for as many as 4 evolutionary divergent clades within S. radiatus. Therefore, we formally describe two new species from the S. radiatus species complex (Strophitus williamsi and Strophitus pascagoulaensis) and recognize the potential for a third putative species (Strophitus sp. cf. pascagoulaensis). Our findings aid stakeholders in establishing conservation and management strategies for the members of Anodontoides, Strophitus, and Pseudodontoideus.

A Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert M.; Rodriguez, Daniel Taylor

2012-01-01

1. A Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data containing covariates of species occurrence and species detection probabilities is usually completed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in conjunction with software programs that can implement those methods for any statistical model, not just site-occupancy models. Although these software programs are quite flexible, considerable experience is often required to specify a model and to initialize the Markov chain so that summaries of the posterior distribution can be estimated efficiently and accurately. 2. As an alternative to these programs, we develop a Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data that include covariates of species occurrence and species detection probabilities. This Gibbs sampler is based on a class of site-occupancy models in which probabilities of species occurrence and detection are specified as probit-regression functions of site- and survey-specific covariate measurements. 3. To illustrate the Gibbs sampler, we analyse site-occupancy data of the blue hawker, Aeshna cyanea (Odonata, Aeshnidae), a common dragonfly species in Switzerland. Our analysis includes a comparison of results based on Bayesian and classical (non-Bayesian) methods of inference. We also provide code (based on the R software program) for conducting Bayesian and classical analyses of site-occupancy data.

Integrated Taxonomy and DNA Barcoding of Alpine Midges (Diptera: Chironomidae)

PubMed Central

Montagna, Matteo; Mereghetti, Valeria; Lencioni, Valeria; Rossaro, Bruno

2016-01-01

Rapid and efficient DNA-based tools are recommended for the evaluation of the insect biodiversity of high-altitude streams. In the present study, focused principally on larvae of the genus Diamesa Meigen 1835 (Diptera: Chironomidae), the congruence between morphological/molecular delimitation of species as well as performances in taxonomic assignments were evaluated. A fragment of the mitochondrial cox1 gene was obtained from 112 larvae, pupae and adults (Diamesinae, Orthocladiinae and Tanypodinae) that were collected in different mountain regions of the Alps and Apennines. On the basis of morphological characters 102 specimens were attributed to 16 species, and the remaining ten specimens were identified to the genus level. Molecular species delimitation was performed using: i) distance-based Automatic Barcode Gap Discovery (ABGD), with no a priori assumptions on species identification; and ii) coalescent tree-based approaches as the Generalized Mixed Yule Coalescent model, its Bayesian implementation and Bayesian Poisson Tree Processes. The ABGD analysis, estimating an optimal intra/interspecific nucleotide distance threshold of 0.7%-1.4%, identified 23 putative species; the tree-based approaches, identified between 25–26 entities, provided nearly identical results. All species belonging to zernyi, steinboecki, latitarsis, bertrami, dampfi and incallida groups, as well as outgroup species, are recovered as separate entities, perfectly matching the identified morphospecies. In contrast, within the cinerella group, cases of discrepancy arose: i) the two morphologically separate species D. cinerella and D. tonsa are neither monophyletic nor diagnosable exhibiting low values of between-taxa nucleotide mean divergence (0.94%); ii) few cases of larvae morphological misidentification were observed. Head capsule color is confirmed to be a valid character able to discriminate larvae of D. zernyi, D. tonsa and D. cinerella, but it is here better defined as a color gradient between the setae submenti and genal setae. DNA barcodes performances were high: average accuracy was ~89% and precision of ~99%. On the basis of the present data, we can thus conclude that molecular identification represents a promising tool that could be effectively adopted in evaluating biodiversity of high-altitude streams. PMID:26938660

Integrated Taxonomy and DNA Barcoding of Alpine Midges (Diptera: Chironomidae).

PubMed

Montagna, Matteo; Mereghetti, Valeria; Lencioni, Valeria; Rossaro, Bruno

2016-01-01

Rapid and efficient DNA-based tools are recommended for the evaluation of the insect biodiversity of high-altitude streams. In the present study, focused principally on larvae of the genus Diamesa Meigen 1835 (Diptera: Chironomidae), the congruence between morphological/molecular delimitation of species as well as performances in taxonomic assignments were evaluated. A fragment of the mitochondrial cox1 gene was obtained from 112 larvae, pupae and adults (Diamesinae, Orthocladiinae and Tanypodinae) that were collected in different mountain regions of the Alps and Apennines. On the basis of morphological characters 102 specimens were attributed to 16 species, and the remaining ten specimens were identified to the genus level. Molecular species delimitation was performed using: i) distance-based Automatic Barcode Gap Discovery (ABGD), with no a priori assumptions on species identification; and ii) coalescent tree-based approaches as the Generalized Mixed Yule Coalescent model, its Bayesian implementation and Bayesian Poisson Tree Processes. The ABGD analysis, estimating an optimal intra/interspecific nucleotide distance threshold of 0.7%-1.4%, identified 23 putative species; the tree-based approaches, identified between 25-26 entities, provided nearly identical results. All species belonging to zernyi, steinboecki, latitarsis, bertrami, dampfi and incallida groups, as well as outgroup species, are recovered as separate entities, perfectly matching the identified morphospecies. In contrast, within the cinerella group, cases of discrepancy arose: i) the two morphologically separate species D. cinerella and D. tonsa are neither monophyletic nor diagnosable exhibiting low values of between-taxa nucleotide mean divergence (0.94%); ii) few cases of larvae morphological misidentification were observed. Head capsule color is confirmed to be a valid character able to discriminate larvae of D. zernyi, D. tonsa and D. cinerella, but it is here better defined as a color gradient between the setae submenti and genal setae. DNA barcodes performances were high: average accuracy was ~89% and precision of ~99%. On the basis of the present data, we can thus conclude that molecular identification represents a promising tool that could be effectively adopted in evaluating biodiversity of high-altitude streams.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Del Pozzo, Walter; Nikhef National Institute for Subatomic Physics, Science Park 105, 1098 XG Amsterdam; Veitch, John

Second-generation interferometric gravitational-wave detectors, such as Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo, are expected to begin operation by 2015. Such instruments plan to reach sensitivities that will offer the unique possibility to test general relativity in the dynamical, strong-field regime and investigate departures from its predictions, in particular, using the signal from coalescing binary systems. We introduce a statistical framework based on Bayesian model selection in which the Bayes factor between two competing hypotheses measures which theory is favored by the data. Probability density functions of the model parameters are then used to quantify the inference on individual parameters. We alsomore » develop a method to combine the information coming from multiple independent observations of gravitational waves, and show how much stronger inference could be. As an introduction and illustration of this framework-and a practical numerical implementation through the Monte Carlo integration technique of nested sampling-we apply it to gravitational waves from the inspiral phase of coalescing binary systems as predicted by general relativity and a very simple alternative theory in which the graviton has a nonzero mass. This method can (and should) be extended to more realistic and physically motivated theories.« less

Effects of waveform model systematics on the interpretation of GW150914

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Abernathy, M. R.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V. B.; Affeldt, C.; Agathos, M.; Agatsuma, K.; Aggarwal, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Aiello, L.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allocca, A.; Altin, P. A.; Ananyeva, A.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Appert, S.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Areeda, J. S.; Arnaud, N.; Arun, K. G.; Ascenzi, S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, M.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Avila-Alvarez, A.; Babak, S.; Bacon, P.; Bader, M. K. M.; Baker, P. T.; Baldaccini, F.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S. W.; Barayoga, J. C.; E Barclay, S.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barta, D.; Bartlett, J.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J. C.; Baune, C.; Bavigadda, V.; Bazzan, M.; Beer, C.; Bejger, M.; Belahcene, I.; Belgin, M.; Bell, A. S.; Berger, B. K.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Billman, C. R.; Birch, J.; Birney, R.; Birnholtz, O.; Biscans, S.; Bisht, A.; Bitossi, M.; Biwer, C.; Bizouard, M. A.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackman, J.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D. G.; Blair, R. M.; Bloemen, S.; Bock, O.; Boer, M.; Bogaert, G.; Bohe, A.; Bondu, F.; Bonnand, R.; Boom, B. A.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bouffanais, Y.; Bozzi, A.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; E Brau, J.; Briant, T.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brockill, P.; E Broida, J.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brown, D. D.; Brown, N. M.; Brunett, S.; Buchanan, C. C.; Buikema, A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cabero, M.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Cahillane, C.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Callister, T. A.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, H.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Capocasa, E.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Casanueva Diaz, J.; Casentini, C.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C. B.; Cerboni Baiardi, L.; Cerretani, G.; Cesarini, E.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chan, M.; Chao, S.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Cheeseboro, B. D.; Chen, H. Y.; Chen, Y.; Cheng, H.-P.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Chmiel, T.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chua, A. J. K.; Chua, S.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Cleva, F.; Cocchieri, C.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P.-F.; Colla, A.; Collette, C. G.; Cominsky, L.; Constancio, M., Jr.; Conti, L.; Cooper, S. J.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Cortese, S.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coughlin, S. B.; Coulon, J.-P.; Countryman, S. T.; Couvares, P.; Covas, P. B.; E Cowan, E.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; E Creighton, J. D.; Creighton, T. D.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cullen, T. J.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Dal Canton, T.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dasgupta, A.; Da Silva Costa, C. F.; Dattilo, V.; Dave, I.; Davier, M.; Davies, G. S.; Davis, D.; Daw, E. J.; Day, B.; Day, R.; De, S.; DeBra, D.; Debreczeni, G.; Degallaix, J.; De Laurentis, M.; Deléglise, S.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dergachev, V.; De Rosa, R.; DeRosa, R. T.; DeSalvo, R.; Devenson, J.; Devine, R. C.; Dhurandhar, S.; Díaz, M. C.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Giovanni, M.; Di Girolamo, T.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Pace, S.; Di Palma, I.; Di Virgilio, A.; Doctor, Z.; Dolique, V.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Dorrington, I.; Douglas, R.; Dovale Álvarez, M.; Downes, T. P.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Ducrot, M.; E Dwyer, S.; Edo, T. B.; Edwards, M. C.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Eisenstein, R. A.; Essick, R. C.; Etienne, Z.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T. M.; Everett, R.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fair, H.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Fauchon-Jones, E. J.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Fejer, M. M.; Fernández Galiana, A.; Ferrante, I.; Ferreira, E. C.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Fiori, I.; Fiorucci, D.; Fisher, R. P.; Flaminio, R.; Fletcher, M.; Fong, H.; Forsyth, S. S.; Fournier, J.-D.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Frey, V.; Fries, E. M.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gabbard, H.; Gadre, B. U.; Gaebel, S. M.; Gair, J. R.; Gammaitoni, L.; Gaonkar, S. G.; Garufi, F.; Gaur, G.; Gayathri, V.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; George, J.; Gergely, L.; Germain, V.; Ghonge, S.; Ghosh, Abhirup; Ghosh, Archisman; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, K.; Glaefke, A.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gondan, L.; González, G.; Gonzalez Castro, J. M.; Gopakumar, A.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; E Gossan, S.; Gosselin, M.; Gouaty, R.; Grado, A.; Graef, C.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greco, G.; Green, A. C.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Guo, X.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, M. K.; E Gushwa, K.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hacker, J. J.; Hall, B. R.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.; Haney, M.; Hanke, M. M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannam, M. D.; Hanson, J.; Hardwick, T.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M. J.; Hartman, M. T.; Haster, C.-J.; Haughian, K.; Healy, J.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Hennig, J.; Henry, J.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hofman, D.; Holt, K.; E Holz, D.; Hopkins, P.; Hough, J.; Houston, E. A.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huerta, E. A.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Isa, H. N.; Isac, J.-M.; Isi, M.; Isogai, T.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacqmin, T.; Jani, K.; Jaranowski, P.; Jawahar, S.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; Junker, J.; Kalaghatgi, C. V.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Karki, S.; Karvinen, K. S.; Kasprzack, M.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, S.; Kaur, T.; Kawabe, K.; Kéfélian, F.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D. B.; Kennedy, R.; Key, J. S.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, I.; Khan, S.; Khan, Z.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kijbunchoo, N.; Kim, Chunglee; Kim, J. C.; Kim, Whansun; Kim, W.; Kim, Y.-M.; Kimbrell, S. J.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kirchhoff, R.; Kissel, J. S.; Klein, B.; Kleybolte, L.; Klimenko, S.; Koch, P.; Koehlenbeck, S. M.; Koley, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kontos, A.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D. B.; Krämer, C.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Królak, A.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, P.; Kumar, R.; Kuo, L.; Kutynia, A.; Lackey, B. D.; Landry, M.; Lang, R. N.; Lange, J.; Lantz, B.; Lanza, R. K.; Lartaux-Vollard, A.; Lasky, P. D.; Laxen, M.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lebigot, E. O.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Lee, K.; Lehmann, J.; Lenon, A.; Leonardi, M.; Leong, J. R.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levin, Y.; Li, T. G. F.; Libson, A.; Littenberg, T. B.; Liu, J.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lombardi, A. L.; London, L. T.; E Lord, J.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J. D.; Lovelace, G.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; Macfoy, S.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magaña-Sandoval, F.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Malvezzi, V.; Man, N.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Manske, M.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A. S.; Maros, E.; Martelli, F.; Martellini, L.; Martin, I. W.; Martynov, D. V.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Masso-Reid, M.; Mastrogiovanni, S.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazumder, N.; McCarthy, R.; E McClelland, D.; McCormick, S.; McGrath, C.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McManus, D. J.; McRae, T.; McWilliams, S. T.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Meidam, J.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mendoza-Gandara, D.; Mercer, R. A.; Merilh, E. L.; Merzougui, M.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Messick, C.; Metzdorff, R.; Meyers, P. M.; Mezzani, F.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Middleton, H.; E Mikhailov, E.; Milano, L.; Miller, A. L.; Miller, A.; Miller, B. B.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Minenkov, Y.; Ming, J.; Mirshekari, S.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moggi, A.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Montani, M.; Moore, B. C.; Moore, C. J.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morriss, S. R.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, G.; Muir, A. W.; Mukherjee, Arunava; Mukherjee, D.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukund, N.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Muniz, E. A. M.; Murray, P. G.; Mytidis, A.; Napier, K.; Nardecchia, I.; Naticchioni, L.; Nelemans, G.; Nelson, T. J. N.; Neri, M.; Nery, M.; Neunzert, A.; Newport, J. M.; Newton, G.; Nguyen, T. T.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A.; Noack, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E. N.; Nuttall, L. K.; Oberling, J.; Ochsner, E.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oliver, M.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, Richard J.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ottaway, D. J.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; E Pace, A.; Page, J.; Pai, A.; Pai, S. A.; Palamos, J. R.; Palashov, O.; Palomba, C.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoli, A.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H. R.; Parker, W.; Pascucci, D.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patricelli, B.; Pearlstone, B. L.; Pedraza, M.; Pedurand, R.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Perez, C. J.; Perreca, A.; Perri, L. M.; Pfeiffer, H. P.; Phelps, M.; Piccinni, O. J.; Pichot, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pillant, G.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poe, M.; Poggiani, R.; Popolizio, P.; Post, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Pratt, J. W. W.; Predoi, V.; Prestegard, T.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L. G.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Pürrer, M.; Qi, H.; Qin, J.; Qiu, S.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E. A.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rajan, C.; Rakhmanov, M.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Razzano, M.; Re, V.; Read, J.; Regimbau, T.; Rei, L.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Rew, H.; Reyes, S. D.; Rhoades, E.; Ricci, F.; Riles, K.; Rizzo, M.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V. J.; Romano, J. D.; Romano, R.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Sachdev, S.; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Sakellariadou, M.; Salconi, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Samajdar, A.; Sammut, L.; Sampson, L. M.; Sanchez, E. J.; Sandberg, V.; Sanders, J. R.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Sauter, O.; Savage, R. L.; Sawadsky, A.; Schale, P.; Scheuer, J.; Schmidt, E.; Schmidt, J.; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schönbeck, A.; Schreiber, E.; Schuette, D.; Schutz, B. F.; Schwalbe, S. G.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sequino, V.; Sergeev, A.; Setyawati, Y.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shaffer, T. J.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Sheperd, A.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Shoemaker, D. M.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sieniawska, M.; Sigg, D.; Silva, A. D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L. P.; Singh, A.; Singh, R.; Singhal, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, B.; Smith, J. R.; E Smith, R. J.; Son, E. J.; Sorazu, B.; Sorrentino, F.; Souradeep, T.; Spencer, A. P.; Srivastava, A. K.; Staley, A.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Stevenson, S. P.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Straniero, N.; Stratta, G.; E Strigin, S.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, L.; Sunil, S.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B. L.; Szczepańczyk, M. J.; Tacca, M.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tápai, M.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, R.; Theeg, T.; Thomas, E. G.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thrane, E.; Tippens, T.; Tiwari, S.; Tiwari, V.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Toland, K.; Tomlinson, C.; Tonelli, M.; Tornasi, Z.; Torrie, C. I.; Töyrä, D.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trifirò, D.; Trinastic, J.; Tringali, M. C.; Trozzo, L.; Tse, M.; Tso, R.; Turconi, M.; Tuyenbayev, D.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; van Bakel, N.; van Beuzekom, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; Vander-Hyde, D. C.; van der Schaaf, L.; van Heijningen, J. V.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vardaro, M.; Varma, V.; Vass, S.; Vasúth, M.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Venugopalan, G.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Viets, A. D.; Vinciguerra, S.; Vine, D. J.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Voss, D. V.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; E Wade, L.; Wade, M.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, G.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Wang, Y.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Watchi, J.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L.-W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Wen, L.; Weßels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whiting, B. F.; Whittle, C.; Williams, D.; Williams, R. D.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M. H.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Woehler, J.; Worden, J.; Wright, J. L.; Wu, D. S.; Wu, G.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yap, M. J.; Yu, Hang; Yu, Haocun; Yvert, M.; Zadrożny, A.; Zangrando, L.; Zanolin, M.; Zendri, J.-P.; Zevin, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, T.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, S. J.; Zhu, X. J.; E Zucker, M.; Zweizig, J.; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration; Boyle, M.; Chu, T.; Hemberger, D.; Hinder, I.; E Kidder, L.; Ossokine, S.; Scheel, M.; Szilagyi, B.; Teukolsky, S.; Vano Vinuales, A.

2017-05-01

Parameter estimates of GW150914 were obtained using Bayesian inference, based on three semi-analytic waveform models for binary black hole coalescences. These waveform models differ from each other in their treatment of black hole spins, and all three models make some simplifying assumptions, notably to neglect sub-dominant waveform harmonic modes and orbital eccentricity. Furthermore, while the models are calibrated to agree with waveforms obtained by full numerical solutions of Einstein’s equations, any such calibration is accurate only to some non-zero tolerance and is limited by the accuracy of the underlying phenomenology, availability, quality, and parameter-space coverage of numerical simulations. This paper complements the original analyses of GW150914 with an investigation of the effects of possible systematic errors in the waveform models on estimates of its source parameters. To test for systematic errors we repeat the original Bayesian analysis on mock signals from numerical simulations of a series of binary configurations with parameters similar to those found for GW150914. Overall, we find no evidence for a systematic bias relative to the statistical error of the original parameter recovery of GW150914 due to modeling approximations or modeling inaccuracies. However, parameter biases are found to occur for some configurations disfavored by the data of GW150914: for binaries inclined edge-on to the detector over a small range of choices of polarization angles, and also for eccentricities greater than  ˜0.05. For signals with higher signal-to-noise ratio than GW150914, or in other regions of the binary parameter space (lower masses, larger mass ratios, or higher spins), we expect that systematic errors in current waveform models may impact gravitational-wave measurements, making more accurate models desirable for future observations.

Using Discrete Loss Functions and Weighted Kappa for Classification: An Illustration Based on Bayesian Network Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zwick, Rebecca; Lenaburg, Lubella

2009-01-01

In certain data analyses (e.g., multiple discriminant analysis and multinomial log-linear modeling), classification decisions are made based on the estimated posterior probabilities that individuals belong to each of several distinct categories. In the Bayesian network literature, this type of classification is often accomplished by assigning…

Phylotranscriptomic analysis of the origin and early diversification of land plants

PubMed Central

Wickett, Norman J.; Mirarab, Siavash; Nguyen, Nam; Warnow, Tandy; Carpenter, Eric; Matasci, Naim; Ayyampalayam, Saravanaraj; Barker, Michael S.; Burleigh, J. Gordon; Gitzendanner, Matthew A.; Ruhfel, Brad R.; Wafula, Eric; Graham, Sean W.; Mathews, Sarah; Melkonian, Michael; Soltis, Douglas E.; Soltis, Pamela S.; Miles, Nicholas W.; Rothfels, Carl J.; Pokorny, Lisa; Shaw, A. Jonathan; DeGironimo, Lisa; Stevenson, Dennis W.; Surek, Barbara; Villarreal, Juan Carlos; Roure, Béatrice; Philippe, Hervé; dePamphilis, Claude W.; Chen, Tao; Deyholos, Michael K.; Baucom, Regina S.; Kutchan, Toni M.; Augustin, Megan M.; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Yong; Tian, Zhijian; Yan, Zhixiang; Wu, Xiaolei; Sun, Xiao; Wong, Gane Ka-Shu; Leebens-Mack, James

2014-01-01

Reconstructing the origin and evolution of land plants and their algal relatives is a fundamental problem in plant phylogenetics, and is essential for understanding how critical adaptations arose, including the embryo, vascular tissue, seeds, and flowers. Despite advances in molecular systematics, some hypotheses of relationships remain weakly resolved. Inferring deep phylogenies with bouts of rapid diversification can be problematic; however, genome-scale data should significantly increase the number of informative characters for analyses. Recent phylogenomic reconstructions focused on the major divergences of plants have resulted in promising but inconsistent results. One limitation is sparse taxon sampling, likely resulting from the difficulty and cost of data generation. To address this limitation, transcriptome data for 92 streptophyte taxa were generated and analyzed along with 11 published plant genome sequences. Phylogenetic reconstructions were conducted using up to 852 nuclear genes and 1,701,170 aligned sites. Sixty-nine analyses were performed to test the robustness of phylogenetic inferences to permutations of the data matrix or to phylogenetic method, including supermatrix, supertree, and coalescent-based approaches, maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods, partitioned and unpartitioned analyses, and amino acid versus DNA alignments. Among other results, we find robust support for a sister-group relationship between land plants and one group of streptophyte green algae, the Zygnematophyceae. Strong and robust support for a clade comprising liverworts and mosses is inconsistent with a widely accepted view of early land plant evolution, and suggests that phylogenetic hypotheses used to understand the evolution of fundamental plant traits should be reevaluated. PMID:25355905

Droplets coalescence at microchannel intersection chambers with different shapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhaomiao; Wang, Xiang; Cao, Rentuo; Pang, Yan

2016-11-01

The influence of microchannel intersection chamber shape on droplets coalescence process is investigated in this study. Three kinds of chamber shapes (half-round, triangle and camber) are designed to realize head-on droplets coalescence. The coalescence processes are visualized with high-speed camera system and the internal flow patterns are resolved with micro-PIV system. Experimental analyses on droplets coalescence position, coalescence time and the critical conditions are discussed. Both direct coalescence and late coalescence can be observed in the camber junction while only the late coalescence is present for the half-round and the triangle junction. The critical capillary number Ca* varies for different working systems or intersection shapes. Ca* in the camber junction is larger than that in the other two junctions for each working system and it decreases with the increase of the viscosity ratios for each intersection shape. Moreover, the characteristics of the velocity fields for different coalescence cases are analyzed for in-depth understanding of the process. The authors do appreciate the financial support of No.11572013 of National Nature Scicence Funding of China.

Ancient mitochondrial DNA provides high-resolution time scale of the peopling of the Americas.

PubMed

Llamas, Bastien; Fehren-Schmitz, Lars; Valverde, Guido; Soubrier, Julien; Mallick, Swapan; Rohland, Nadin; Nordenfelt, Susanne; Valdiosera, Cristina; Richards, Stephen M; Rohrlach, Adam; Romero, Maria Inés Barreto; Espinoza, Isabel Flores; Cagigao, Elsa Tomasto; Jiménez, Lucía Watson; Makowski, Krzysztof; Reyna, Ilán Santiago Leboreiro; Lory, Josefina Mansilla; Torrez, Julio Alejandro Ballivián; Rivera, Mario A; Burger, Richard L; Ceruti, Maria Constanza; Reinhard, Johan; Wells, R Spencer; Politis, Gustavo; Santoro, Calogero M; Standen, Vivien G; Smith, Colin; Reich, David; Ho, Simon Y W; Cooper, Alan; Haak, Wolfgang

2016-04-01

The exact timing, route, and process of the initial peopling of the Americas remains uncertain despite much research. Archaeological evidence indicates the presence of humans as far as southern Chile by 14.6 thousand years ago (ka), shortly after the Pleistocene ice sheets blocking access from eastern Beringia began to retreat. Genetic estimates of the timing and route of entry have been constrained by the lack of suitable calibration points and low genetic diversity of Native Americans. We sequenced 92 whole mitochondrial genomes from pre-Columbian South American skeletons dating from 8.6 to 0.5 ka, allowing a detailed, temporally calibrated reconstruction of the peopling of the Americas in a Bayesian coalescent analysis. The data suggest that a small population entered the Americas via a coastal route around 16.0 ka, following previous isolation in eastern Beringia for ~2.4 to 9 thousand years after separation from eastern Siberian populations. Following a rapid movement throughout the Americas, limited gene flow in South America resulted in a marked phylogeographic structure of populations, which persisted through time. All of the ancient mitochondrial lineages detected in this study were absent from modern data sets, suggesting a high extinction rate. To investigate this further, we applied a novel principal components multiple logistic regression test to Bayesian serial coalescent simulations. The analysis supported a scenario in which European colonization caused a substantial loss of pre-Columbian lineages.

Bayesian survival analysis in clinical trials: What methods are used in practice?

PubMed

Brard, Caroline; Le Teuff, Gwénaël; Le Deley, Marie-Cécile; Hampson, Lisa V

2017-02-01

Background Bayesian statistics are an appealing alternative to the traditional frequentist approach to designing, analysing, and reporting of clinical trials, especially in rare diseases. Time-to-event endpoints are widely used in many medical fields. There are additional complexities to designing Bayesian survival trials which arise from the need to specify a model for the survival distribution. The objective of this article was to critically review the use and reporting of Bayesian methods in survival trials. Methods A systematic review of clinical trials using Bayesian survival analyses was performed through PubMed and Web of Science databases. This was complemented by a full text search of the online repositories of pre-selected journals. Cost-effectiveness, dose-finding studies, meta-analyses, and methodological papers using clinical trials were excluded. Results In total, 28 articles met the inclusion criteria, 25 were original reports of clinical trials and 3 were re-analyses of a clinical trial. Most trials were in oncology (n = 25), were randomised controlled (n = 21) phase III trials (n = 13), and half considered a rare disease (n = 13). Bayesian approaches were used for monitoring in 14 trials and for the final analysis only in 14 trials. In the latter case, Bayesian survival analyses were used for the primary analysis in four cases, for the secondary analysis in seven cases, and for the trial re-analysis in three cases. Overall, 12 articles reported fitting Bayesian regression models (semi-parametric, n = 3; parametric, n = 9). Prior distributions were often incompletely reported: 20 articles did not define the prior distribution used for the parameter of interest. Over half of the trials used only non-informative priors for monitoring and the final analysis (n = 12) when it was specified. Indeed, no articles fitting Bayesian regression models placed informative priors on the parameter of interest. The prior for the treatment effect was based on historical data in only four trials. Decision rules were pre-defined in eight cases when trials used Bayesian monitoring, and in only one case when trials adopted a Bayesian approach to the final analysis. Conclusion Few trials implemented a Bayesian survival analysis and few incorporated external data into priors. There is scope to improve the quality of reporting of Bayesian methods in survival trials. Extension of the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials statement for reporting Bayesian clinical trials is recommended.

Sorting through the chaff, nDNA gene trees for phylogenetic inference and hybrid identification of annual sunflowers (Helianthus sect. Helianthus).

PubMed

Moody, Michael L; Rieseberg, Loren H

2012-07-01

The annual sunflowers (Helianthus sect. Helianthus) present a formidable challenge for phylogenetic inference because of ancient hybrid speciation, recent introgression, and suspected issues with deep coalescence. Here we analyze sequence data from 11 nuclear DNA (nDNA) genes for multiple genotypes of species within the section to (1) reconstruct the phylogeny of this group, (2) explore the utility of nDNA gene trees for detecting hybrid speciation and introgression; and (3) test an empirical method of hybrid identification based on the phylogenetic congruence of nDNA gene trees from tightly linked genes. We uncovered considerable topological heterogeneity among gene trees with or without three previously identified hybrid species included in the analyses, as well as a general lack of reciprocal monophyly of species. Nonetheless, partitioned Bayesian analyses provided strong support for the reciprocal monophyly of all species except H. annuus (0.89 PP), the most widespread and abundant annual sunflower. Previous hypotheses of relationships among taxa were generally strongly supported (1.0 PP), except among taxa typically associated with H. annuus, apparently due to the paraphyly of the latter in all gene trees. While the individual nDNA gene trees provided a useful means for detecting recent hybridization, identification of ancient hybridization was problematic for all ancient hybrid species, even when linkage was considered. We discuss biological factors that affect the efficacy of phylogenetic methods for hybrid identification.

"Contrasting patterns of selection at Pinus pinaster Ait. Drought stress candidate genes as revealed by genetic differentiation analyses".

PubMed

Eveno, Emmanuelle; Collada, Carmen; Guevara, M Angeles; Léger, Valérie; Soto, Alvaro; Díaz, Luis; Léger, Patrick; González-Martínez, Santiago C; Cervera, M Teresa; Plomion, Christophe; Garnier-Géré, Pauline H

2008-02-01

The importance of natural selection for shaping adaptive trait differentiation among natural populations of allogamous tree species has long been recognized. Determining the molecular basis of local adaptation remains largely unresolved, and the respective roles of selection and demography in shaping population structure are actively debated. Using a multilocus scan that aims to detect outliers from simulated neutral expectations, we analyzed patterns of nucleotide diversity and genetic differentiation at 11 polymorphic candidate genes for drought stress tolerance in phenotypically contrasted Pinus pinaster Ait. populations across its geographical range. We compared 3 coalescent-based methods: 2 frequentist-like, including 1 approach specifically developed for biallelic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) here and 1 Bayesian. Five genes showed outlier patterns that were robust across methods at the haplotype level for 2 of them. Two genes presented higher F(ST) values than expected (PR-AGP4 and erd3), suggesting that they could have been affected by the action of diversifying selection among populations. In contrast, 3 genes presented lower F(ST) values than expected (dhn-1, dhn2, and lp3-1), which could represent signatures of homogenizing selection among populations. A smaller proportion of outliers were detected at the SNP level suggesting the potential functional significance of particular combinations of sites in drought-response candidate genes. The Bayesian method appeared robust to low sample sizes, flexible to assumptions regarding migration rates, and powerful for detecting selection at the haplotype level, but the frequentist-like method adapted to SNPs was more efficient for the identification of outlier SNPs showing low differentiation. Population-specific effects estimated in the Bayesian method also revealed populations with lower immigration rates, which could have led to favorable situations for local adaptation. Outlier patterns are discussed in relation to the different genes' putative involvement in drought tolerance responses, from published results in transcriptomics and association mapping in P. pinaster and other related species. These genes clearly constitute relevant candidates for future association studies in P. pinaster.

Wright-Fisher diffusion bridges.

PubMed

Griffiths, Robert C; Jenkins, Paul A; Spanò, Dario

2017-10-06

The trajectory of the frequency of an allele which begins at x at time 0 and is known to have frequency z at time T can be modelled by the bridge process of the Wright-Fisher diffusion. Bridges when x=z=0 are particularly interesting because they model the trajectory of the frequency of an allele which appears at a time, then is lost by random drift or mutation after a time T. The coalescent genealogy back in time of a population in a neutral Wright-Fisher diffusion process is well understood. In this paper we obtain a new interpretation of the coalescent genealogy of the population in a bridge from a time t∈(0,T). In a bridge with allele frequencies of 0 at times 0 and T the coalescence structure is that the population coalesces in two directions from t to 0 and t to T such that there is just one lineage of the allele under consideration at times 0 and T. The genealogy in Wright-Fisher diffusion bridges with selection is more complex than in the neutral model, but still with the property of the population branching and coalescing in two directions from time t∈(0,T). The density of the frequency of an allele at time t is expressed in a way that shows coalescence in the two directions. A new algorithm for exact simulation of a neutral Wright-Fisher bridge is derived. This follows from knowing the density of the frequency in a bridge and exact simulation from the Wright-Fisher diffusion. The genealogy of the neutral Wright-Fisher bridge is also modelled by branching Pólya urns, extending a representation in a Wright-Fisher diffusion. This is a new very interesting representation that relates Wright-Fisher bridges to classical urn models in a Bayesian setting. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nuclear and plastid markers reveal the persistence of genetic identity: a new perspective on the evolutionary history of Petunia exserta.

PubMed

Segatto, Ana Lúcia Anversa; Cazé, Ana Luíza Ramos; Turchetto, Caroline; Klahre, Ulrich; Kuhlemeier, Cris; Bonatto, Sandro Luis; Freitas, Loreta Brandão

2014-01-01

Recently divergent species that can hybridize are ideal models for investigating the genetic exchanges that can occur while preserving the species boundaries. Petunia exserta is an endemic species from a very limited and specific area that grows exclusively in rocky shelters. These shaded spots are an inhospitable habitat for all other Petunia species, including the closely related and widely distributed species P. axillaris. Individuals with intermediate morphologic characteristics have been found near the rocky shelters and were believed to be putative hybrids between P. exserta and P. axillaris, suggesting a situation where Petunia exserta is losing its genetic identity. In the current study, we analyzed the plastid intergenic spacers trnS/trnG and trnH/psbA and six nuclear CAPS markers in a large sampling design of both species to understand the evolutionary process occurring in this biological system. Bayesian clustering methods, cpDNA haplotype networks, genetic diversity statistics, and coalescence-based analyses support a scenario where hybridization occurs while two genetic clusters corresponding to two species are maintained. Our results reinforce the importance of coupling differentially inherited markers with an extensive geographic sample to assess the evolutionary dynamics of recently diverged species that can hybridize. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Speciation, population structure, and demographic history of the Mojave Fringe-toed Lizard (Uma scoparia), a species of conservation concern

PubMed Central

Gottscho, Andrew D; Marks, Sharyn B; Jennings, W Bryan

2014-01-01

The North American deserts were impacted by both Neogene plate tectonics and Quaternary climatic fluctuations, yet it remains unclear how these events influenced speciation in this region. We tested published hypotheses regarding the timing and mode of speciation, population structure, and demographic history of the Mojave Fringe-toed Lizard (Uma scoparia), a sand dune specialist endemic to the Mojave Desert of California and Arizona. We sampled 109 individual lizards representing 22 insular dune localities, obtained DNA sequences for 14 nuclear loci, and found that U. scoparia has low genetic diversity relative to the U. notata species complex, comparable to that of chimpanzees and southern elephant seals. Analyses of genotypes using Bayesian clustering algorithms did not identify discrete populations within U. scoparia. Using isolation-with-migration (IM) models and a novel coalescent-based hypothesis testing approach, we estimated that U. scoparia diverged from U. notata in the Pleistocene epoch. The likelihood ratio test and the Akaike Information Criterion consistently rejected nested speciation models that included parameters for migration and population growth of U. scoparia. We reject the Neogene vicariance hypothesis for the speciation of U. scoparia and define this species as a single evolutionarily significant unit for conservation purposes. PMID:25360285

Comparing maternal genetic variation across two millennia reveals the demographic history of an ancient human population in southwest Turkey

PubMed Central

Ottoni, Claudio; Willet, Rinse; Claeys, Johan; Talloen, Peter; Van de Vijver, Katrien; Chikhi, Lounès; Poblome, Jeroen; Decorte, Ronny

2016-01-01

More than two decades of archaeological research at the site of Sagalassos, in southwest Turkey, resulted in the study of the former urban settlement in all its features. Originally settled in late Classical/early Hellenistic times, possibly from the later fifth century BCE onwards, the city of Sagalassos and its surrounding territory saw empires come and go. The Plague of Justinian in the sixth century CE, which is considered to have caused the death of up to a third of the population in Anatolia, and an earthquake in the seventh century CE, which is attested to have devastated many monuments in the city, may have severely affected the contemporary Sagalassos community. Human occupation continued, however, and Byzantine Sagalassos was eventually abandoned around 1200 CE. In order to investigate whether these historical events resulted in demographic changes across time, we compared the mitochondrial DNA variation of two population samples from Sagalassos (Roman and Middle Byzantine) and a modern sample from the nearby town of Ağlasun. Our analyses revealed no genetic discontinuity across two millennia in the region and Bayesian coalescence-based simulations indicated that a major population decline in the area coincided with the final abandonment of Sagalassos, rather than with the Plague of Justinian or the mentioned earthquake. PMID:26998313

Competing risk models in reliability systems, a weibull distribution model with bayesian analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iskandar, Ismed; Satria Gondokaryono, Yudi

2016-02-01

In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range between the true value and the maximum likelihood estimated value lines.

Reconstructing gravitational wave source parameters via direct comparisons to numerical relativity II: Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Shaughnessy, Richard; Lange, Jacob; Healy, James; Carlos, Lousto; Shoemaker, Deirdre; Lovelace, Geoffrey; Scheel, Mark

2016-03-01

In this talk, we apply a procedure to reconstruct the parameters of sufficiently massive coalescing compact binaries via direct comparison with numerical relativity simulations. We illustrate how to use only comparisons between synthetic data and these simulations to reconstruct properties of a synthetic candidate source. We demonstrate using selected examples that we can reconstruct posterior distributions obtained by other Bayesian methods with our sparse grid. We describe how followup simulations can corroborate and improve our understanding of a candidate signal.

Automating approximate Bayesian computation by local linear regression.

PubMed

Thornton, Kevin R

2009-07-07

In several biological contexts, parameter inference often relies on computationally-intensive techniques. "Approximate Bayesian Computation", or ABC, methods based on summary statistics have become increasingly popular. A particular flavor of ABC based on using a linear regression to approximate the posterior distribution of the parameters, conditional on the summary statistics, is computationally appealing, yet no standalone tool exists to automate the procedure. Here, I describe a program to implement the method. The software package ABCreg implements the local linear-regression approach to ABC. The advantages are: 1. The code is standalone, and fully-documented. 2. The program will automatically process multiple data sets, and create unique output files for each (which may be processed immediately in R), facilitating the testing of inference procedures on simulated data, or the analysis of multiple data sets. 3. The program implements two different transformation methods for the regression step. 4. Analysis options are controlled on the command line by the user, and the program is designed to output warnings for cases where the regression fails. 5. The program does not depend on any particular simulation machinery (coalescent, forward-time, etc.), and therefore is a general tool for processing the results from any simulation. 6. The code is open-source, and modular.Examples of applying the software to empirical data from Drosophila melanogaster, and testing the procedure on simulated data, are shown. In practice, the ABCreg simplifies implementing ABC based on local-linear regression.

Indigenous Wildlife Rabies in Taiwan: Ferret Badgers, a Long Term Terrestrial Reservoir.

PubMed

Lan, Yu-Ching; Wen, Tzai-Hung; Chang, Chao-Chin; Liu, Hsin-Fu; Lee, Pei-Fen; Huang, Chung-Yuan; Chomel, Bruno B; Chen, Yi-Ming A

2017-01-01

The emerging disease of rabies was confirmed in Taiwan ferret badgers (FBs) and reported to the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) on July 17, 2013. The spread of wildlife rabies can be related to neighborhood countries in Asia. The phylogenetic analysis was conducted by maximum likelihood (ML) methods and the Bayesian coalescent approach based on the glycoprotein (G) and nucleoprotein (N) genes. The phylogeographic and spatial temporal dynamics of viral transmission were determined by using SPREAD, QGIS. Therefore, the origin and the change with time of the viruses can be identified. Results showed the rabies virus of FB strains in Taiwan is a unique clade among other strains in Asia. According to the phylogeographic coalescent tree, three major genotypes of the FB rabies virus have circulated in three different geographical areas in Taiwan. Two genotypes have distributed into central and southern Taiwan between two ecological river barriers. The third genotype has been limited in southeastern Taiwan by the natural mountain barrier. The diversity of FB rabies viruses indicates that the biological profile of FBs could vary in different geographical areas in Taiwan. An enhanced surveillance system needs to be established near the currently identified natural barriers for early warnings of the rabies virus outbreak in Taiwan.

Indigenous Wildlife Rabies in Taiwan: Ferret Badgers, a Long Term Terrestrial Reservoir

PubMed Central

Wen, Tzai-Hung; Liu, Hsin-Fu; Lee, Pei-Fen; Chomel, Bruno B.

2017-01-01

The emerging disease of rabies was confirmed in Taiwan ferret badgers (FBs) and reported to the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) on July 17, 2013. The spread of wildlife rabies can be related to neighborhood countries in Asia. The phylogenetic analysis was conducted by maximum likelihood (ML) methods and the Bayesian coalescent approach based on the glycoprotein (G) and nucleoprotein (N) genes. The phylogeographic and spatial temporal dynamics of viral transmission were determined by using SPREAD, QGIS. Therefore, the origin and the change with time of the viruses can be identified. Results showed the rabies virus of FB strains in Taiwan is a unique clade among other strains in Asia. According to the phylogeographic coalescent tree, three major genotypes of the FB rabies virus have circulated in three different geographical areas in Taiwan. Two genotypes have distributed into central and southern Taiwan between two ecological river barriers. The third genotype has been limited in southeastern Taiwan by the natural mountain barrier. The diversity of FB rabies viruses indicates that the biological profile of FBs could vary in different geographical areas in Taiwan. An enhanced surveillance system needs to be established near the currently identified natural barriers for early warnings of the rabies virus outbreak in Taiwan. PMID:28497055

Travelling to the south: Phylogeographic spatial diffusion model in Monttea aphylla (Plantaginaceae), an endemic plant of the Monte Desert

PubMed Central

Cosacov, Andrea; Ferreiro, Gabriela; Johnson, Leigh A.; Sérsic, Alicia N.

2017-01-01

Effects of Pleistocene climatic oscillations on plant phylogeographic patterns are relatively well studied in forest, savanna and grassland biomes, but such impacts remain less explored on desert regions of the world, especially in South America. Here, we performed a phylogeographical study of Monttea aphylla, an endemic species of the Monte Desert, to understand the evolutionary history of vegetation communities inhabiting the South American Arid Diagonal. We obtained sequences of three chloroplast (trnS–trnfM, trnH–psbA and trnQ–rps16) and one nuclear (ITS) intergenic spacers from 272 individuals of 34 localities throughout the range of the species. Population genetic and Bayesian coalescent analyses were performed to infer genealogical relationships among haplotypes, population genetic structure, and demographic history of the study species. Timing of demographic events was inferred using Bayesian Skyline Plot and the spatio-temporal patterns of lineage diversification was reconstructed using Bayesian relaxed diffusion models. Palaeo-distribution models (PDM) were performed through three different timescales to validate phylogeographical patterns. Twenty-five and 22 haplotypes were identified in the cpDNA and nDNA data, respectively. that clustered into two main genealogical lineages following a latitudinal pattern, the northern and the southern Monte (south of 35° S). The northern Monte showed two lineages of high genetic structure, and more relative stable demography than the southern Monte that retrieved three groups with little phylogenetic structure and a strong signal of demographic expansion that would have started during the Last Interglacial period (ca. 120 Ka). The PDM and diffusion models analyses agreed in the southeast direction of the range expansion. Differential effect of climatic oscillations across the Monte phytogeographic province was observed in Monttea aphylla lineages. In northern Monte, greater genetic structure and more relative stable demography resulted from a more stable climate than in the southern Monte. Pleistocene glaciations drastically decreased the species area in the southern Monte, which expanded in a southeastern direction to the new available areas during the interglacial periods. PMID:28582433

Coalescence of Fluid-Driven Fractures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Keeffe, Niall; Zheng, Zhong; Huppert, Herbert; Linden, Paul

2017-11-01

We present an experimental study on the coalescence of two in-plane fluid-driven penny-shaped fractures in a brittle elastic medium. Initially, two fluid-driven fractures propagate independently of each other in the same plane. Then when the radial extent of each fracture reaches a certain distance the fractures begin to interact and coalesce. This coalescence forms a bridge between the fractures and then, in an intermediate period following the contact of the two fractures, most growth is observed to focus along this bridge, perpendicular to the line connecting the injection sources. We analyse the growth and shape of this bridge at various stages after coalescence and the transitions between different stages of growth. We also investigate the influence of the injection rate, the distance between two injection points, the viscosity of the fluid and the Young's modulus of the elastic medium on the coalescence of the fractures.

Comparative Phylogeographic Analyses Illustrate the Complex Evolutionary History of Threatened Cloud Forests of Northern Mesoamerica

PubMed Central

Ornelas, Juan Francisco; Sosa, Victoria; Soltis, Douglas E.; Daza, Juan M.; González, Clementina; Soltis, Pamela S.; Gutiérrez-Rodríguez, Carla; de los Monteros, Alejandro Espinosa; Castoe, Todd A.; Bell, Charles; Ruiz-Sanchez, Eduardo

2013-01-01

Comparative phylogeography can elucidate the influence of historical events on current patterns of biodiversity and can identify patterns of co-vicariance among unrelated taxa that span the same geographic areas. Here we analyze temporal and spatial divergence patterns of cloud forest plant and animal species and relate them to the evolutionary history of naturally fragmented cloud forests–among the most threatened vegetation types in northern Mesoamerica. We used comparative phylogeographic analyses to identify patterns of co-vicariance in taxa that share geographic ranges across cloud forest habitats and to elucidate the influence of historical events on current patterns of biodiversity. We document temporal and spatial genetic divergence of 15 species (including seed plants, birds and rodents), and relate them to the evolutionary history of the naturally fragmented cloud forests. We used fossil-calibrated genealogies, coalescent-based divergence time inference, and estimates of gene flow to assess the permeability of putative barriers to gene flow. We also used the hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation (HABC) method implemented in the program msBayes to test simultaneous versus non-simultaneous divergence of the cloud forest lineages. Our results show shared phylogeographic breaks that correspond to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Los Tuxtlas, and the Chiapas Central Depression, with the Isthmus representing the most frequently shared break among taxa. However, dating analyses suggest that the phylogeographic breaks corresponding to the Isthmus occurred at different times in different taxa. Current divergence patterns are therefore consistent with the hypothesis of broad vicariance across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec derived from different mechanisms operating at different times. This study, coupled with existing data on divergence cloud forest species, indicates that the evolutionary history of contemporary cloud forest lineages is complex and often lineage-specific, and thus difficult to capture in a simple conservation strategy. PMID:23409165

A novel multilocus phylogenetic estimation reveals unrecognized diversity in Asian horned toads, genus Megophrys sensu lato (Anura: Megophryidae).

PubMed

Chen, Jin-Min; Zhou, Wei-Wei; Poyarkov, Nikolay A; Stuart, Bryan L; Brown, Rafe M; Lathrop, Amy; Wang, Ying-Yong; Yuan, Zhi-Yong; Jiang, Ke; Hou, Mian; Chen, Hong-Man; Suwannapoom, Chatmongkon; Nguyen, Sang Ngoc; Duong, Tang Van; Papenfuss, Theodore J; Murphy, Robert W; Zhang, Ya-Ping; Che, Jing

2017-01-01

The horned toad assemblage, genus Megophrys sensu lato, currently includes three groups previously recognized as the genera Atympanophrys, Xenophrys and Megophrys sensu stricto. The taxonomic status and species composition of the three groups remain controversial due to conflicting phenotypic analyses and insufficient phylogenetic reconstruction; likewise, the position of the monotypic Borneophrys remains uncertain with respect to the horned toads. Further, the diversity of the horned toads remains poorly understood, especially for widespread species. Herein, we evaluate species-level diversity based on 45 of the 57 described species from throughout southern China, Southeast Asia and the Himalayas using Bayesian inference trees and the Generalized Mixed Yule Coalescent (GMYC) approach. We estimate the phylogeny using both mitochondrial and nuclear DNA data. Analyses reveal statistically significant mito-nuclear discordance. All analyses resolve paraphyly for horned toads involving multiple strongly supported clades. These clades correspond with geography. We resurrect the genera Atympanophrys and Xenophrys from the synonymy of Megophrys to eliminate paraphyly of Megophrys s.l. and to account for the morphological, molecular and biogeographic differences among these groups, but we also provide an alternative option. Our study suggests that Borneophrys is junior synonym of Megophrys sensu stricto. We provide an estimation of timeframe for the horned toads. The mitochondrial and nuclear trees indicate the presence of many putative undescribed species. Widespread species, such as Xenophrys major and X. minor, likely have dramatically underestimated diversity. The integration of morphological and molecular evidence can validate this discovery. Montane forest dynamics appear to play a significant role in driving diversification of horned toads. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multi-locus phylogeny using topotype specimens sheds light on the systematics of Niviventer (Rodentia, Muridae) in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Bin; He, Kai; Wan, Tao; Chen, Peng; Sun, Guozheng; Liu, Shaoying; Nguyen, Truong Son; Lin, Liangkong; Jiang, Xuelong

2016-12-01

Niviventer is a genus of white-bellied rats that are among the most common rodents in the Indo-Sundaic region. The taxonomy of the genus has undergone extensive revisions and remains controversial. The current phylogeny is unresolved and was developed primarily on the basis of mitochondrial genes. Identification is extremely difficult, and a large number of GenBank sequences seem to be problematic. We extensively sampled specimens of Niviventer in China and neighboring northern Vietnam, including topotypes of the most reported species (n = 6), subspecies (n = 8), and synonyms (n = 4). We estimated phylogenetic relationships on the basis of one mitochondrial and three nuclear genes, using concatenation and coalescent-based approaches. We also employed molecular species delimitation approaches to test the existence of cryptic and putative new species. Our phylogeny was finely resolved, especially for the N. confucianus-like species. Our data provided the first support for N. brahma and N. eha as sister species, an assignment that is congruent with their morphological similarities. Species delimitation analyses provided new insight into species diversity and systematics. Three geographic populations of N. confucianus and one of N. fulvescens were supported as genetically distinct in our species delimitation analyses, while three recognized species (N. coninga, N. huang, and N. lotipes) were not strongly supported as distinct. Our results suggested that several genetically distinct species may be contained within the species currently known as N. confucianus and N. fulvescens. In addition, the results of Bayesian Phylogenetics and Phylogeography (BPP) for N. coninga, N. huang, and N. lotipes indicated that either inter-specific gene flow had occurred or imperfect taxonomy was present. Morphological examinations and morphometric analyses are warranted to examine the molecular results.

Pan-African Genetic Structure in the African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer): Investigating Intraspecific Divergence

PubMed Central

Smitz, Nathalie; Berthouly, Cécile; Cornélis, Daniel; Heller, Rasmus; Van Hooft, Pim; Chardonnet, Philippe; Caron, Alexandre; Prins, Herbert; van Vuuren, Bettine Jansen; De Iongh, Hans; Michaux, Johan

2013-01-01

The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) exhibits extreme morphological variability, which has led to controversies about the validity and taxonomic status of the various recognized subspecies. The present study aims to clarify these by inferring the pan-African spatial distribution of genetic diversity, using a comprehensive set of mitochondrial D-loop sequences from across the entire range of the species. All analyses converged on the existence of two distinct lineages, corresponding to a group encompassing West and Central African populations and a group encompassing East and Southern African populations. The former is currently assigned to two to three subspecies (S. c. nanus, S. c. brachyceros, S. c. aequinoctialis) and the latter to a separate subspecies (S. c. caffer). Forty-two per cent of the total amount of genetic diversity is explained by the between-lineage component, with one to seventeen female migrants per generation inferred as consistent with the isolation-with-migration model. The two lineages diverged between 145 000 to 449 000 years ago, with strong indications for a population expansion in both lineages, as revealed by coalescent-based analyses, summary statistics and a star-like topology of the haplotype network for the S. c. caffer lineage. A Bayesian analysis identified the most probable historical migration routes, with the Cape buffalo undertaking successive colonization events from Eastern toward Southern Africa. Furthermore, our analyses indicate that, in the West-Central African lineage, the forest ecophenotype may be a derived form of the savanna ecophenotype and not vice versa, as has previously been proposed. The African buffalo most likely expanded and diverged in the late to middle Pleistocene from an ancestral population located around the current-day Central African Republic, adapting morphologically to colonize new habitats, hence developing the variety of ecophenotypes observed today. PMID:23437100

Bayesian multimodel inference for dose-response studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Albers, P.H.

2007-01-01

Statistical inference in dose?response studies is model-based: The analyst posits a mathematical model of the relation between exposure and response, estimates parameters of the model, and reports conclusions conditional on the model. Such analyses rarely include any accounting for the uncertainties associated with model selection. The Bayesian inferential system provides a convenient framework for model selection and multimodel inference. In this paper we briefly describe the Bayesian paradigm and Bayesian multimodel inference. We then present a family of models for multinomial dose?response data and apply Bayesian multimodel inferential methods to the analysis of data on the reproductive success of American kestrels (Falco sparveriuss) exposed to various sublethal dietary concentrations of methylmercury.

Bayesian Analysis of Evolutionary Divergence with Genomic Data under Diverse Demographic Models.

PubMed

Chung, Yujin; Hey, Jody

2017-06-01

We present a new Bayesian method for estimating demographic and phylogenetic history using population genomic data. Several key innovations are introduced that allow the study of diverse models within an Isolation-with-Migration framework. The new method implements a 2-step analysis, with an initial Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) phase that samples simple coalescent trees, followed by the calculation of the joint posterior density for the parameters of a demographic model. In step 1, the MCMC sampling phase, the method uses a reduced state space, consisting of coalescent trees without migration paths, and a simple importance sampling distribution without the demography of interest. Once obtained, a single sample of trees can be used in step 2 to calculate the joint posterior density for model parameters under multiple diverse demographic models, without having to repeat MCMC runs. Because migration paths are not included in the state space of the MCMC phase, but rather are handled by analytic integration in step 2 of the analysis, the method is scalable to a large number of loci with excellent MCMC mixing properties. With an implementation of the new method in the computer program MIST, we demonstrate the method's accuracy, scalability, and other advantages using simulated data and DNA sequences of two common chimpanzee subspecies: Pan troglodytes (P. t.) troglodytes and P. t. verus. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Ancient mitochondrial DNA provides high-resolution time scale of the peopling of the Americas

PubMed Central

Llamas, Bastien; Fehren-Schmitz, Lars; Valverde, Guido; Soubrier, Julien; Mallick, Swapan; Rohland, Nadin; Nordenfelt, Susanne; Valdiosera, Cristina; Richards, Stephen M.; Rohrlach, Adam; Romero, Maria Inés Barreto; Espinoza, Isabel Flores; Cagigao, Elsa Tomasto; Jiménez, Lucía Watson; Makowski, Krzysztof; Reyna, Ilán Santiago Leboreiro; Lory, Josefina Mansilla; Torrez, Julio Alejandro Ballivián; Rivera, Mario A.; Burger, Richard L.; Ceruti, Maria Constanza; Reinhard, Johan; Wells, R. Spencer; Politis, Gustavo; Santoro, Calogero M.; Standen, Vivien G.; Smith, Colin; Reich, David; Ho, Simon Y. W.; Cooper, Alan; Haak, Wolfgang

2016-01-01

The exact timing, route, and process of the initial peopling of the Americas remains uncertain despite much research. Archaeological evidence indicates the presence of humans as far as southern Chile by 14.6 thousand years ago (ka), shortly after the Pleistocene ice sheets blocking access from eastern Beringia began to retreat. Genetic estimates of the timing and route of entry have been constrained by the lack of suitable calibration points and low genetic diversity of Native Americans. We sequenced 92 whole mitochondrial genomes from pre-Columbian South American skeletons dating from 8.6 to 0.5 ka, allowing a detailed, temporally calibrated reconstruction of the peopling of the Americas in a Bayesian coalescent analysis. The data suggest that a small population entered the Americas via a coastal route around 16.0 ka, following previous isolation in eastern Beringia for ~2.4 to 9 thousand years after separation from eastern Siberian populations. Following a rapid movement throughout the Americas, limited gene flow in South America resulted in a marked phylogeographic structure of populations, which persisted through time. All of the ancient mitochondrial lineages detected in this study were absent from modern data sets, suggesting a high extinction rate. To investigate this further, we applied a novel principal components multiple logistic regression test to Bayesian serial coalescent simulations. The analysis supported a scenario in which European colonization caused a substantial loss of pre-Columbian lineages. PMID:27051878

Rapid radiation in spiny lobsters (Palinurus spp) as revealed by classic and ABC methods using mtDNA and microsatellite data.

PubMed

Palero, Ferran; Lopes, Joao; Abelló, Pere; Macpherson, Enrique; Pascual, Marta; Beaumont, Mark A

2009-11-09

Molecular tools may help to uncover closely related and still diverging species from a wide variety of taxa and provide insight into the mechanisms, pace and geography of marine speciation. There is a certain controversy on the phylogeography and speciation modes of species-groups with an Eastern Atlantic-Western Indian Ocean distribution, with previous studies suggesting that older events (Miocene) and/or more recent (Pleistocene) oceanographic processes could have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa. The spiny lobster genus Palinurus allows for testing among speciation hypotheses, since it has a particular distribution with two groups of three species each in the Northeastern Atlantic (P. elephas, P. mauritanicus and P. charlestoni) and Southeastern Atlantic and Southwestern Indian Oceans (P. gilchristi, P. delagoae and P. barbarae). In the present study, we obtain a more complete understanding of the phylogenetic relationships among these species through a combined dataset with both nuclear and mitochondrial markers, by testing alternative hypotheses on both the mutation rate and tree topology under the recently developed approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods. Our analyses support a North-to-South speciation pattern in Palinurus with all the South-African species forming a monophyletic clade nested within the Northern Hemisphere species. Coalescent-based ABC methods allowed us to reject the previously proposed hypothesis of a Middle Miocene speciation event related with the closure of the Tethyan Seaway. Instead, divergence times obtained for Palinurus species using the combined mtDNA-microsatellite dataset and standard mutation rates for mtDNA agree with known glaciation-related processes occurring during the last 2 my. The Palinurus speciation pattern is a typical example of a series of rapid speciation events occurring within a group, with very short branches separating different species. Our results support the hypothesis that recent climate change-related oceanographic processes have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa, with most Palinurus species originating during the last two million years. The present study highlights the value of new coalescent-based statistical methods such as ABC for testing different speciation hypotheses using molecular data.

A Comparison of Imputation Methods for Bayesian Factor Analysis Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merkle, Edgar C.

2011-01-01

Imputation methods are popular for the handling of missing data in psychology. The methods generally consist of predicting missing data based on observed data, yielding a complete data set that is amiable to standard statistical analyses. In the context of Bayesian factor analysis, this article compares imputation under an unrestricted…

A three-stage colonization model for the peopling of the Americas.

PubMed

Kitchen, Andrew; Miyamoto, Michael M; Mulligan, Connie J

2008-02-13

We evaluate the process by which the Americas were originally colonized and propose a three-stage model that integrates current genetic, archaeological, geological, and paleoecological data. Specifically, we analyze mitochondrial and nuclear genetic data by using complementary coalescent models of demographic history and incorporating non-genetic data to enhance the anthropological relevance of the analysis. Bayesian skyline plots, which provide dynamic representations of population size changes over time, indicate that Amerinds went through two stages of growth approximately 40,000 and approximately 15,000 years ago separated by a long period of population stability. Isolation-with-migration coalescent analyses, which utilize data from sister populations to estimate a divergence date and founder population sizes, suggest an Amerind population expansion starting approximately 15,000 years ago. These results support a model for the peopling of the New World in which Amerind ancestors diverged from the Asian gene pool prior to 40,000 years ago and experienced a gradual population expansion as they moved into Beringia. After a long period of little change in population size in greater Beringia, Amerinds rapidly expanded into the Americas approximately 15,000 years ago either through an interior ice-free corridor or along the coast. This rapid colonization of the New World was achieved by a founder group with an effective population size of approximately 1,000-5,400 individuals. Our model presents a detailed scenario for the timing and scale of the initial migration to the Americas, substantially refines the estimate of New World founders, and provides a unified theory for testing with future datasets and analytic methods.

Bayesian Divergence-Time Estimation with Genome-Wide SNP Data of Sea Catfishes (Ariidae) Supports Miocene Closure of the Panamanian Isthmus.

PubMed

Stange, Madlen; Sánchez-Villagra, Marcelo R; Salzburger, Walter; Matschiner, Michael

2018-01-27

The closure of the Isthmus of Panama has long been considered to be one of the best defined biogeographic calibration points for molecular divergence-time estimation. However, geological and biological evidence has recently cast doubt on the presumed timing of the initial isthmus closure around 3 Ma but has instead suggested the existence of temporary land bridges as early as the Middle or Late Miocene. The biological evidence supporting these earlier land bridges was based either on only few molecular markers or on concatenation of genome-wide sequence data, an approach that is known to result in potentially misleading branch lengths and divergence times, which could compromise the reliability of this evidence. To allow divergence-time estimation with genomic data using the more appropriate multi-species coalescent model, we here develop a new method combining the SNP-based Bayesian species-tree inference of the software SNAPP with a molecular clock model that can be calibrated with fossil or biogeographic constraints. We validate our approach with simulations and use our method to reanalyze genomic data of Neotropical army ants (Dorylinae) that previously supported divergence times of Central and South American populations before the isthmus closure around 3 Ma. Our reanalysis with the multi-species coalescent model shifts all of these divergence times to ages younger than 3 Ma, suggesting that the older estimates supporting the earlier existence of temporary land bridges were artifacts resulting at least partially from the use of concatenation. We then apply our method to a new RAD-sequencing data set of Neotropical sea catfishes (Ariidae) and calibrate their species tree with extensive information from the fossil record. We identify a series of divergences between groups of Caribbean and Pacific sea catfishes around 10 Ma, indicating that processes related to the emergence of the isthmus led to vicariant speciation already in the Late Miocene, millions of years before the final isthmus closure. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Powell, James A.

2017-01-01

Ecological diffusion is a theory that can be used to understand and forecast spatio-temporal processes such as dispersal, invasion, and the spread of disease. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling provides a framework to make statistical inference and probabilistic forecasts, using mechanistic ecological models. To illustrate, we show how hierarchical Bayesian models of ecological diffusion can be implemented for large data sets that are distributed densely across space and time. The hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to understand and forecast the growth and geographic spread in the prevalence of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We compare statistical inference and forecasts from our hierarchical Bayesian model to phenomenological regression-based methods that are commonly used to analyse spatial occurrence data. The mechanistic statistical model based on ecological diffusion led to important ecological insights, obviated a commonly ignored type of collinearity, and was the most accurate method for forecasting.

Population Genetic Structure of the Tropical Two-Wing Flyingfish (Exocoetus volitans)

PubMed Central

Lewallen, Eric A.; Bohonak, Andrew J.; Bonin, Carolina A.; van Wijnen, Andre J.; Pitman, Robert L.; Lovejoy, Nathan R.

2016-01-01

Delineating populations of pantropical marine fish is a difficult process, due to widespread geographic ranges and complex life history traits in most species. Exocoetus volitans, a species of two-winged flyingfish, is a good model for understanding large-scale patterns of epipelagic fish population structure because it has a circumtropical geographic range and completes its entire life cycle in the epipelagic zone. Buoyant pelagic eggs should dictate high local dispersal capacity in this species, although a brief larval phase, small body size, and short lifespan may limit the dispersal of individuals over large spatial scales. Based on these biological features, we hypothesized that E. volitans would exhibit statistically and biologically significant population structure defined by recognized oceanographic barriers. We tested this hypothesis by analyzing cytochrome b mtDNA sequence data (1106 bps) from specimens collected in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans (n = 266). AMOVA, Bayesian, and coalescent analytical approaches were used to assess and interpret population-level genetic variability. A parsimony-based haplotype network did not reveal population subdivision among ocean basins, but AMOVA revealed limited, statistically significant population structure between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (ΦST = 0.035, p<0.001). A spatially-unbiased Bayesian approach identified two circumtropical population clusters north and south of the Equator (ΦST = 0.026, p<0.001), a previously unknown dispersal barrier for an epipelagic fish. Bayesian demographic modeling suggested the effective population size of this species increased by at least an order of magnitude ~150,000 years ago, to more than 1 billion individuals currently. Thus, high levels of genetic similarity observed in E. volitans can be explained by high rates of gene flow, a dramatic and recent population expansion, as well as extensive and consistent dispersal throughout the geographic range of the species. PMID:27736863

Population Genetic Structure of the Tropical Two-Wing Flyingfish (Exocoetus volitans).

PubMed

Lewallen, Eric A; Bohonak, Andrew J; Bonin, Carolina A; van Wijnen, Andre J; Pitman, Robert L; Lovejoy, Nathan R

2016-01-01

Delineating populations of pantropical marine fish is a difficult process, due to widespread geographic ranges and complex life history traits in most species. Exocoetus volitans, a species of two-winged flyingfish, is a good model for understanding large-scale patterns of epipelagic fish population structure because it has a circumtropical geographic range and completes its entire life cycle in the epipelagic zone. Buoyant pelagic eggs should dictate high local dispersal capacity in this species, although a brief larval phase, small body size, and short lifespan may limit the dispersal of individuals over large spatial scales. Based on these biological features, we hypothesized that E. volitans would exhibit statistically and biologically significant population structure defined by recognized oceanographic barriers. We tested this hypothesis by analyzing cytochrome b mtDNA sequence data (1106 bps) from specimens collected in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans (n = 266). AMOVA, Bayesian, and coalescent analytical approaches were used to assess and interpret population-level genetic variability. A parsimony-based haplotype network did not reveal population subdivision among ocean basins, but AMOVA revealed limited, statistically significant population structure between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (ΦST = 0.035, p<0.001). A spatially-unbiased Bayesian approach identified two circumtropical population clusters north and south of the Equator (ΦST = 0.026, p<0.001), a previously unknown dispersal barrier for an epipelagic fish. Bayesian demographic modeling suggested the effective population size of this species increased by at least an order of magnitude ~150,000 years ago, to more than 1 billion individuals currently. Thus, high levels of genetic similarity observed in E. volitans can be explained by high rates of gene flow, a dramatic and recent population expansion, as well as extensive and consistent dispersal throughout the geographic range of the species.

Molecular Epidemiology and Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of the H3N8 Equine Influenza Virus in South America

PubMed Central

Olguin Perglione, Cecilia; Golemba, Marcelo D.; Torres, Carolina; Barrandeguy, Maria

2016-01-01

Equine influenza virus (EIV) is considered the most important respiratory pathogen of horses as outbreaks of the disease lead to substantial economic losses. The H3N8 EIV has caused respiratory disease in horses across the world, including South American countries. Nucleotide and deduced amino acid sequences for the complete haemagglutinin gene of the H3N8 EIV detected in South America since 1963 were analyzed. Phylogenetic and Bayesian coalescent analyses were carried out to study the origin, the time of the most recent common ancestors (tMRCA), the demographic and the phylogeographic patterns of the H3N8 EIV. The phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that the H3N8 EIV detected in South America grouped in 5 well-supported monophyletic clades, each associated with strains of different origins. The tMRCA estimated for each group suggested that the virus was circulating in North America at least one year before its effective circulation in the South American population. Phylogenetic and coalescent analyses revealed a polyphyletic behavior of the viruses causing the outbreaks in South America between 1963 and 2012, possibly due to the introduction of at least 4 different EIVs through the international movement of horses. In addition, phylodynamic analysis suggested South America as the starting point of the spread of the H3N8 EIV in 1963 and showed migration links from the United States to South America in the subsequent EIV irruptions. Further, an increase in the relative genetic diversity was observed between 2006 and 2007 and a subsequent decline since 2009, probably due to the co-circulation of different lineages and as a result of the incorporation of the Florida clade 2 strain in vaccines, respectively. The observed data highlight the importance of epidemiological surveillance and the implementation of appropriate quarantine procedures to prevent outbreaks of the disease. PMID:27754468

Ecological and Genetic Divergences with Gene Flow of Two Sister Species (Leucomeris decora and Nouelia insignis) Driving by Climatic Transition in Southwest China.

PubMed

Zhao, Yujuan; Yin, Genshen; Pan, Yuezhi; Gong, Xun

2018-01-01

Understanding of the processes of divergence and speciation is a major task for biodiversity researches and may offer clearer insight into mechanisms generating biological diversity. Here, we employ an integrative approach to explore genetic and ecological differentiation of Leucomeris decora and Nouelia insignis distributed allopatrically along the two sides of the biogeographic boundary 'Tanaka Line' in Southwest China. We addressed these questions using ten low-copy nuclear genes and nine plastid DNA regions sequenced among individuals sampled from 28 populations across their geographic ranges in China. Phylogenetic, coalescent-based population genetic analyses, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework and ecological niche models (ENMs) were conducted. We identified a closer phylogenetic relationship in maternal lineage of L. decora with N. insignis than that between L . decora and congeneric Leucomeris spectabilis . A deep divergence between the two species was observed and occurred at the boundary between later Pliocene and early Pleistocene. However, the evidence of significant chloroplast DNA gene flow was also detected between the marginal populations of L. decora and N. insignis . Niche models and statistical analyses showed significant ecological differentiation, and two nuclear loci among the ten nuclear genes may be under divergent selection. These integrative results imply that the role of climatic shift from Pliocene to Pleistocene may be the prominent factor for the divergence of L . decora and N . insignis , and population expansion after divergence may have given rise to chloroplast DNA introgression. The divergence was maintained by differential selection despite in the face of gene flow.

Species-Level Phylogeny and Polyploid Relationships in Hordeum (Poaceae) Inferred by Next-Generation Sequencing and In Silico Cloning of Multiple Nuclear Loci.

PubMed

Brassac, Jonathan; Blattner, Frank R

2015-09-01

Polyploidization is an important speciation mechanism in the barley genus Hordeum. To analyze evolutionary changes after allopolyploidization, knowledge of parental relationships is essential. One chloroplast and 12 nuclear single-copy loci were amplified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in all Hordeum plus six out-group species. Amplicons from each of 96 individuals were pooled, sheared, labeled with individual-specific barcodes and sequenced in a single run on a 454 platform. Reference sequences were obtained by cloning and Sanger sequencing of all loci for nine supplementary individuals. The 454 reads were assembled into contigs representing the 13 loci and, for polyploids, also homoeologues. Phylogenetic analyses were conducted for all loci separately and for a concatenated data matrix of all loci. For diploid taxa, a Bayesian concordance analysis and a coalescent-based dated species tree was inferred from all gene trees. Chloroplast matK was used to determine the maternal parent in allopolyploid taxa. The relative performance of different multilocus analyses in the presence of incomplete lineage sorting and hybridization was also assessed. The resulting multilocus phylogeny reveals for the first time species phylogeny and progenitor-derivative relationships of all di- and polyploid Hordeum taxa within a single analysis. Our study proves that it is possible to obtain a multilocus species-level phylogeny for di- and polyploid taxa by combining PCR with next-generation sequencing, without cloning and without creating a heavy load of sequence data. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

Effects of fullerene coalescence on the thermal conductivity of carbon nanopeapods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiaqian; Shen, Haijun

2018-05-01

The heat conduction and its dependence on fullerene coalescence in carbon nanopeapods (CNPs) have been investigated by equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations. The effects of fullerene coalescence on the thermal conductivity of CNPs were discussed under different temperatures. It is shown that the thermal conductivity of the CNPs decreases with the coalescence of encapsulated fullerene molecules. The thermal transmission mechanism of the effect of fullerene coalescence was analysed by the mass transfer contribution, the relative contributions of phonon oscillation frequencies to total heat current and the phonon vibrational density of states (VDOS). The mass transfer in CNPs is mainly attributed to the motion of encapsulated fullerene molecule and it gets more restricted with the coalescence of the fullerene. It shows that the low-frequency phonon modes below 20 THz contribute mostly to thermal conductivity in CNPs. The analysis of VDOS demonstrates that the dominating contribution to heat transfer is from the inner fullerene chain. With the coalescence of fullerene, the interfacial heat transfer between the CNT and fullerene chain is strengthened; however, the heat conduction of the fullerene chain decreases more rapidly at the same time.

Predictive distributions for between-study heterogeneity and simple methods for their application in Bayesian meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Turner, Rebecca M; Jackson, Dan; Wei, Yinghui; Thompson, Simon G; Higgins, Julian P T

2015-01-01

Numerous meta-analyses in healthcare research combine results from only a small number of studies, for which the variance representing between-study heterogeneity is estimated imprecisely. A Bayesian approach to estimation allows external evidence on the expected magnitude of heterogeneity to be incorporated. The aim of this paper is to provide tools that improve the accessibility of Bayesian meta-analysis. We present two methods for implementing Bayesian meta-analysis, using numerical integration and importance sampling techniques. Based on 14 886 binary outcome meta-analyses in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, we derive a novel set of predictive distributions for the degree of heterogeneity expected in 80 settings depending on the outcomes assessed and comparisons made. These can be used as prior distributions for heterogeneity in future meta-analyses. The two methods are implemented in R, for which code is provided. Both methods produce equivalent results to standard but more complex Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches. The priors are derived as log-normal distributions for the between-study variance, applicable to meta-analyses of binary outcomes on the log odds-ratio scale. The methods are applied to two example meta-analyses, incorporating the relevant predictive distributions as prior distributions for between-study heterogeneity. We have provided resources to facilitate Bayesian meta-analysis, in a form accessible to applied researchers, which allow relevant prior information on the degree of heterogeneity to be incorporated. © 2014 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:25475839

Can the Site-Frequency Spectrum Distinguish Exponential Population Growth from Multiple-Merger Coalescents?

PubMed Central

Eldon, Bjarki; Birkner, Matthias; Blath, Jochen; Freund, Fabian

2015-01-01

The ability of the site-frequency spectrum (SFS) to reflect the particularities of gene genealogies exhibiting multiple mergers of ancestral lines as opposed to those obtained in the presence of population growth is our focus. An excess of singletons is a well-known characteristic of both population growth and multiple mergers. Other aspects of the SFS, in particular, the weight of the right tail, are, however, affected in specific ways by the two model classes. Using an approximate likelihood method and minimum-distance statistics, our estimates of statistical power indicate that exponential and algebraic growth can indeed be distinguished from multiple-merger coalescents, even for moderate sample sizes, if the number of segregating sites is high enough. A normalized version of the SFS (nSFS) is also used as a summary statistic in an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach. The results give further positive evidence as to the general eligibility of the SFS to distinguish between the different histories. PMID:25575536

Bayesian data analysis in population ecology: motivations, methods, and benefits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert

2016-01-01

During the 20th century ecologists largely relied on the frequentist system of inference for the analysis of their data. However, in the past few decades ecologists have become increasingly interested in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this article I provide guidance to ecologists who would like to decide whether Bayesian methods can be used to improve their conclusions and predictions. I begin by providing a concise summary of Bayesian methods of analysis, including a comparison of differences between Bayesian and frequentist approaches to inference when using hierarchical models. Next I provide a list of problems where Bayesian methods of analysis may arguably be preferred over frequentist methods. These problems are usually encountered in analyses based on hierarchical models of data. I describe the essentials required for applying modern methods of Bayesian computation, and I use real-world examples to illustrate these methods. I conclude by summarizing what I perceive to be the main strengths and weaknesses of using Bayesian methods to solve ecological inference problems.

Dated tribe-wide whole chloroplast genome phylogeny indicates recurrent hybridizations within Triticeae.

PubMed

Bernhardt, Nadine; Brassac, Jonathan; Kilian, Benjamin; Blattner, Frank R

2017-06-16

Triticeae, the tribe of wheat grasses, harbours the cereals barley, rye and wheat and their wild relatives. Although economically important, relationships within the tribe are still not understood. We analysed the phylogeny of chloroplast lineages among nearly all monogenomic Triticeae taxa and polyploid wheat species aiming at a deeper understanding of the tribe's evolution. We used on- and off-target reads of a target-enrichment experiment followed by Illumina sequencing. The read data was used to assemble the plastid locus ndhF for 194 individuals and the whole chloroplast genome for 183 individuals, representing 53 Triticeae species and 15 genera. We conducted Bayesian and multispecies coalescent analyses to infer relationships and estimate divergence times of the taxa. We present the most comprehensive dated Triticeae chloroplast phylogeny and review previous hypotheses in the framework of our results. Monophyly of Triticeae chloroplasts could not be confirmed, as either Bromus or Psathyrostachys captured a chloroplast from a lineage closely related to a Bromus-Triticeae ancestor. The most recent common ancestor of Triticeae occurred approximately between ten and 19 million years ago. The comparison of the chloroplast phylogeny with available nuclear data in several cases revealed incongruences indicating past hybridizations. Recent events of chloroplast capture were detected as individuals grouped apart from con-specific accessions in otherwise monopyhletic groups.

Experimental study on the coalescence process of SiO2 supported colloidal Au nanoparticles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruffino, F.; Torrisi, V.; Grimaldi, M. G.

2015-11-01

We report on an experimental study of the coalescence-driven grow process of colloidal Au nanoparticles on SiO2 surface. Nanoparticles with 30, 50, 80, 100 nm nominal diameters on a SiO2 substrate were deposited, from solutions, by the drop-casting method. Then, annealing processes, in the 573-1173 K temperature range and 900-3600 s time range, were performed. Using scanning electron microscopy analyses, the temporal evolution of the nanoparticles sizes has been studied. In particular, for all classes of nanoparticles, the experimental-obtained diameters distributions evidenced double-peak shapes (i. e. bimodal distributions): a first peak centered (and unchanged changing the annealing temperature and/or time) at the nominal diameter of the as-deposited nanoparticles, , and a second peak shifting at higher mean diameters, , increasing the annealing temperature and/or time. This observation suggested us a coalescence-driven growth process of a nanoparticles sub-population. As a consequence, the temporal evolution of (for each class of nanoparticles and each annealing temperature), within the well-established particles coalescence theoretical framework, has been analyzed. In particular, by the analyses of the experimental data using relations as prescribed by the theoretical model, a characteristic size-dependent activation energy for the Au nanoparticles coalescence process has been evaluated.

Multi-locus phylogeny and divergence time estimates of Enallagma damselflies (Odonata: Coenagrionidae).

PubMed

Callahan, Melissa S; McPeek, Mark A

2016-01-01

Reconstructing evolutionary patterns of species and populations provides a framework for asking questions about the impacts of climate change. Here we use a multilocus dataset to estimate gene trees under maximum likelihood and Bayesian models to obtain a robust estimate of relationships for a genus of North American damselflies, Enallagma. Using a relaxed molecular clock, we estimate the divergence times for this group. Furthermore, to account for the fact that gene tree analyses can overestimate ages of population divergences, we use a multi-population coalescent model to gain a more accurate estimate of divergence times. We also infer diversification rates using a method that allows for variation in diversification rate through time and among lineages. Our results reveal a complex evolutionary history of Enallagma, in which divergence events both predate and occur during Pleistocene climate fluctuations. There is also evidence of diversification rate heterogeneity across the tree. These divergence time estimates provide a foundation for addressing the relative significance of historical climatic events in the diversification of this genus. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Evolutionary History, Demography, and Spread of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex.

PubMed

Barbier, Maxime; Wirth, Thierry

2016-08-01

With the advent of next-generation sequencing technology, the genotyping of clinical Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains went through a major breakup that dramatically improved the field of molecular epidemiology but also revolutionized our deep understanding of the M. tuberculosis complex evolutionary history. The intricate paths of the pathogen and its human host are reflected by a common geographical origin in Africa and strong biogeographical associations that largely reflect the past migration waves out of Africa. This long coevolutionary history is cardinal for our understanding of the host-pathogen dynamic, including past and ongoing demographic components, strains' genetic background, as well as the immune system genetic architecture of the host. Coalescent- and Bayesian-based analyses allowed us to reconstruct population size changes of M. tuberculosis through time, to date the most recent common ancestor and the several phylogenetic lineages. This information will ultimately help us to understand the spread of the Beijing lineage, the rise of multidrug-resistant sublineages, or the fall of others in the light of socioeconomic events, antibiotic programs, or host population densities. If we leave the present and go through the looking glass, thanks to our ability to handle small degraded molecules combined with targeted capture, paleomicrobiology covering the Pleistocene era will possibly unravel lineage replacements, dig out extinct ones, and eventually ask for major revisions of the current model.

Genetic divergence and phylogeographic history of two closely related species (Leucomeris decora and Nouelia insignis) across the 'Tanaka Line' in Southwest China.

PubMed

Zhao, Yu-Juan; Gong, Xun

2015-07-08

Leucomeris decora and Nouelia insignis (Asteraceae) are narrowly and allopatrically distributed species, separated by the important biogeographic boundary Tanaka Line in Southwest China. Previous morphological, cytogenetic and molecular studies suggested that L. decora is sister to N. insignis. However, it is less clear how the two species diverged, whether in full isolation or occurring gene flow across the Tanaka Line. Here, we performed a molecular study at the population level to characterize genetic differentiation and decipher phylogeographic history in two closely related species based on variation examined in plastid and nuclear DNAs using a coalescent-based approach. These morphologically distinct species share plastid DNA (cpDNA) haplotypes. In contrast, Bayesian analysis of nuclear DNA (nDNA) uncovered two distinct clusters corresponding to L. decora and N. insignis. Based on the IMa analysis, no strong indication of migration was detected based on both cpDNA and nDNA sequences. The molecular data pointed to a major west-east split in nuclear DNA between the two species corresponding with the Tanaka Line. The coalescent time estimate for all cpDNA haplotypes dated to the Mid-Late Pleistocene. The estimated demographic parameters showed that the population size of L. decora was similar to that of N. insignis and both experienced limited demographic fluctuations recently. The study revealed comprehensive species divergence and phylogeographic histories of N. insignis and L. decora divided by the Tanaka Line. The phylogeographic pattern inferred from cpDNA reflected ancestrally shared polymorphisms without post-divergence gene flow between species. The marked genealogical lineage divergence in nDNA provided some indication of Tanaka Line for its role as a barrier to plant dispersal, and lent support to its importance in promoting strong population structure and allopatric divergence.

A default Bayesian hypothesis test for mediation.

PubMed

Nuijten, Michèle B; Wetzels, Ruud; Matzke, Dora; Dolan, Conor V; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2015-03-01

In order to quantify the relationship between multiple variables, researchers often carry out a mediation analysis. In such an analysis, a mediator (e.g., knowledge of a healthy diet) transmits the effect from an independent variable (e.g., classroom instruction on a healthy diet) to a dependent variable (e.g., consumption of fruits and vegetables). Almost all mediation analyses in psychology use frequentist estimation and hypothesis-testing techniques. A recent exception is Yuan and MacKinnon (Psychological Methods, 14, 301-322, 2009), who outlined a Bayesian parameter estimation procedure for mediation analysis. Here we complete the Bayesian alternative to frequentist mediation analysis by specifying a default Bayesian hypothesis test based on the Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow approach. We further extend this default Bayesian test by allowing a comparison to directional or one-sided alternatives, using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques implemented in JAGS. All Bayesian tests are implemented in the R package BayesMed (Nuijten, Wetzels, Matzke, Dolan, & Wagenmakers, 2014).

On the use of higher order wave forms in the search for gravitational waves emitted by compact binary coalescences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKechan, David J. A.

2010-11-01

This thesis concerns the use, in gravitational wave data analysis, of higher order wave form models of the gravitational radiation emitted by compact binary coalescences. We begin with an introductory chapter that includes an overview of the theory of general relativity, gravitational radiation and ground-based interferometric gravitational wave detectors. We then discuss, in Chapter 2, the gravitational waves emitted by compact binary coalescences, with an explanation of higher order waveforms and how they differ from leading order waveforms we also introduce the post-Newtonian formalism. In Chapter 3 the method and results of a gravitational wave search for low mass compact binary coalescences using a subset of LIGO's 5th science run data are presented and in the subsequent chapter we examine how one could use higher order waveforms in such analyses. We follow the development of a new search algorithm that incorporates higher order waveforms with promising results for detection efficiency and parameter estimation. In Chapter 5, a new method of windowing time-domain waveforms that offers benefit to gravitational wave searches is presented. The final chapter covers the development of a game designed as an outreach project to raise public awareness and understanding of the search for gravitational waves.

A Three-Stage Colonization Model for the Peopling of the Americas

PubMed Central

Kitchen, Andrew; Miyamoto, Michael M.; Mulligan, Connie J.

2008-01-01

Background We evaluate the process by which the Americas were originally colonized and propose a three-stage model that integrates current genetic, archaeological, geological, and paleoecological data. Specifically, we analyze mitochondrial and nuclear genetic data by using complementary coalescent models of demographic history and incorporating non-genetic data to enhance the anthropological relevance of the analysis. Methodology/Findings Bayesian skyline plots, which provide dynamic representations of population size changes over time, indicate that Amerinds went through two stages of growth ≈40,000 and ≈15,000 years ago separated by a long period of population stability. Isolation-with-migration coalescent analyses, which utilize data from sister populations to estimate a divergence date and founder population sizes, suggest an Amerind population expansion starting ≈15,000 years ago. Conclusions/Significance These results support a model for the peopling of the New World in which Amerind ancestors diverged from the Asian gene pool prior to 40,000 years ago and experienced a gradual population expansion as they moved into Beringia. After a long period of little change in population size in greater Beringia, Amerinds rapidly expanded into the Americas ≈15,000 years ago either through an interior ice-free corridor or along the coast. This rapid colonization of the New World was achieved by a founder group with an effective population size of ≈1,000–5,400 individuals. Our model presents a detailed scenario for the timing and scale of the initial migration to the Americas, substantially refines the estimate of New World founders, and provides a unified theory for testing with future datasets and analytic methods. PMID:18270583

Bayesian statistical inference enhances the interpretation of contemporary randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Wijeysundera, Duminda N; Austin, Peter C; Hux, Janet E; Beattie, W Scott; Laupacis, Andreas

2009-01-01

Randomized trials generally use "frequentist" statistics based on P-values and 95% confidence intervals. Frequentist methods have limitations that might be overcome, in part, by Bayesian inference. To illustrate these advantages, we re-analyzed randomized trials published in four general medical journals during 2004. We used Medline to identify randomized superiority trials with two parallel arms, individual-level randomization and dichotomous or time-to-event primary outcomes. Studies with P<0.05 in favor of the intervention were deemed "positive"; otherwise, they were "negative." We used several prior distributions and exact conjugate analyses to calculate Bayesian posterior probabilities for clinically relevant effects. Of 88 included studies, 39 were positive using a frequentist analysis. Although the Bayesian posterior probabilities of any benefit (relative risk or hazard ratio<1) were high in positive studies, these probabilities were lower and variable for larger benefits. The positive studies had only moderate probabilities for exceeding the effects that were assumed for calculating the sample size. By comparison, there were moderate probabilities of any benefit in negative studies. Bayesian and frequentist analyses complement each other when interpreting the results of randomized trials. Future reports of randomized trials should include both.

Bayesian spatial prediction of the site index in the study of the Missouri Ozark Forest Ecosystem Project

Treesearch

Xiaoqian Sun; Zhuoqiong He; John Kabrick

2008-01-01

This paper presents a Bayesian spatial method for analysing the site index data from the Missouri Ozark Forest Ecosystem Project (MOFEP). Based on ecological background and availability, we select three variables, the aspect class, the soil depth and the land type association as covariates for analysis. To allow great flexibility of the smoothness of the random field,...

Bayesian inference for psychology. Part II: Example applications with JASP.

PubMed

Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Love, Jonathon; Marsman, Maarten; Jamil, Tahira; Ly, Alexander; Verhagen, Josine; Selker, Ravi; Gronau, Quentin F; Dropmann, Damian; Boutin, Bruno; Meerhoff, Frans; Knight, Patrick; Raj, Akash; van Kesteren, Erik-Jan; van Doorn, Johnny; Šmíra, Martin; Epskamp, Sacha; Etz, Alexander; Matzke, Dora; de Jong, Tim; van den Bergh, Don; Sarafoglou, Alexandra; Steingroever, Helen; Derks, Koen; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Morey, Richard D

2018-02-01

Bayesian hypothesis testing presents an attractive alternative to p value hypothesis testing. Part I of this series outlined several advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing, including the ability to quantify evidence and the ability to monitor and update this evidence as data come in, without the need to know the intention with which the data were collected. Despite these and other practical advantages, Bayesian hypothesis tests are still reported relatively rarely. An important impediment to the widespread adoption of Bayesian tests is arguably the lack of user-friendly software for the run-of-the-mill statistical problems that confront psychologists for the analysis of almost every experiment: the t-test, ANOVA, correlation, regression, and contingency tables. In Part II of this series we introduce JASP ( http://www.jasp-stats.org ), an open-source, cross-platform, user-friendly graphical software package that allows users to carry out Bayesian hypothesis tests for standard statistical problems. JASP is based in part on the Bayesian analyses implemented in Morey and Rouder's BayesFactor package for R. Armed with JASP, the practical advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing are only a mouse click away.

Impact of censoring on learning Bayesian networks in survival modelling.

PubMed

Stajduhar, Ivan; Dalbelo-Basić, Bojana; Bogunović, Nikola

2009-11-01

Bayesian networks are commonly used for presenting uncertainty and covariate interactions in an easily interpretable way. Because of their efficient inference and ability to represent causal relationships, they are an excellent choice for medical decision support systems in diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis. Although good procedures for learning Bayesian networks from data have been defined, their performance in learning from censored survival data has not been widely studied. In this paper, we explore how to use these procedures to learn about possible interactions between prognostic factors and their influence on the variate of interest. We study how censoring affects the probability of learning correct Bayesian network structures. Additionally, we analyse the potential usefulness of the learnt models for predicting the time-independent probability of an event of interest. We analysed the influence of censoring with a simulation on synthetic data sampled from randomly generated Bayesian networks. We used two well-known methods for learning Bayesian networks from data: a constraint-based method and a score-based method. We compared the performance of each method under different levels of censoring to those of the naive Bayes classifier and the proportional hazards model. We did additional experiments on several datasets from real-world medical domains. The machine-learning methods treated censored cases in the data as event-free. We report and compare results for several commonly used model evaluation metrics. On average, the proportional hazards method outperformed other methods in most censoring setups. As part of the simulation study, we also analysed structural similarities of the learnt networks. Heavy censoring, as opposed to no censoring, produces up to a 5% surplus and up to 10% missing total arcs. It also produces up to 50% missing arcs that should originally be connected to the variate of interest. Presented methods for learning Bayesian networks from data can be used to learn from censored survival data in the presence of light censoring (up to 20%) by treating censored cases as event-free. Given intermediate or heavy censoring, the learnt models become tuned to the majority class and would thus require a different approach.

Evaluation of a Partial Genome Screening of Two Asthma Susceptibility Regions Using Bayesian Network Based Bayesian Multilevel Analysis of Relevance

PubMed Central

Antal, Péter; Kiszel, Petra Sz.; Gézsi, András; Hadadi, Éva; Virág, Viktor; Hajós, Gergely; Millinghoffer, András; Nagy, Adrienne; Kiss, András; Semsei, Ágnes F.; Temesi, Gergely; Melegh, Béla; Kisfali, Péter; Széll, Márta; Bikov, András; Gálffy, Gabriella; Tamási, Lilla; Falus, András; Szalai, Csaba

2012-01-01

Genetic studies indicate high number of potential factors related to asthma. Based on earlier linkage analyses we selected the 11q13 and 14q22 asthma susceptibility regions, for which we designed a partial genome screening study using 145 SNPs in 1201 individuals (436 asthmatic children and 765 controls). The results were evaluated with traditional frequentist methods and we applied a new statistical method, called Bayesian network based Bayesian multilevel analysis of relevance (BN-BMLA). This method uses Bayesian network representation to provide detailed characterization of the relevance of factors, such as joint significance, the type of dependency, and multi-target aspects. We estimated posteriors for these relations within the Bayesian statistical framework, in order to estimate the posteriors whether a variable is directly relevant or its association is only mediated. With frequentist methods one SNP (rs3751464 in the FRMD6 gene) provided evidence for an association with asthma (OR = 1.43(1.2–1.8); p = 3×10−4). The possible role of the FRMD6 gene in asthma was also confirmed in an animal model and human asthmatics. In the BN-BMLA analysis altogether 5 SNPs in 4 genes were found relevant in connection with asthma phenotype: PRPF19 on chromosome 11, and FRMD6, PTGER2 and PTGDR on chromosome 14. In a subsequent step a partial dataset containing rhinitis and further clinical parameters was used, which allowed the analysis of relevance of SNPs for asthma and multiple targets. These analyses suggested that SNPs in the AHNAK and MS4A2 genes were indirectly associated with asthma. This paper indicates that BN-BMLA explores the relevant factors more comprehensively than traditional statistical methods and extends the scope of strong relevance based methods to include partial relevance, global characterization of relevance and multi-target relevance. PMID:22432035

Gravitational waves: search results, data analysis and parameter estimation: Amaldi 10 Parallel session C2.

PubMed

Astone, Pia; Weinstein, Alan; Agathos, Michalis; Bejger, Michał; Christensen, Nelson; Dent, Thomas; Graff, Philip; Klimenko, Sergey; Mazzolo, Giulio; Nishizawa, Atsushi; Robinet, Florent; Schmidt, Patricia; Smith, Rory; Veitch, John; Wade, Madeline; Aoudia, Sofiane; Bose, Sukanta; Calderon Bustillo, Juan; Canizares, Priscilla; Capano, Colin; Clark, James; Colla, Alberto; Cuoco, Elena; Da Silva Costa, Carlos; Dal Canton, Tito; Evangelista, Edgar; Goetz, Evan; Gupta, Anuradha; Hannam, Mark; Keitel, David; Lackey, Benjamin; Logue, Joshua; Mohapatra, Satyanarayan; Piergiovanni, Francesco; Privitera, Stephen; Prix, Reinhard; Pürrer, Michael; Re, Virginia; Serafinelli, Roberto; Wade, Leslie; Wen, Linqing; Wette, Karl; Whelan, John; Palomba, C; Prodi, G

The Amaldi 10 Parallel Session C2 on gravitational wave (GW) search results, data analysis and parameter estimation included three lively sessions of lectures by 13 presenters, and 34 posters. The talks and posters covered a huge range of material, including results and analysis techniques for ground-based GW detectors, targeting anticipated signals from different astrophysical sources: compact binary inspiral, merger and ringdown; GW bursts from intermediate mass binary black hole mergers, cosmic string cusps, core-collapse supernovae, and other unmodeled sources; continuous waves from spinning neutron stars; and a stochastic GW background. There was considerable emphasis on Bayesian techniques for estimating the parameters of coalescing compact binary systems from the gravitational waveforms extracted from the data from the advanced detector network. This included methods to distinguish deviations of the signals from what is expected in the context of General Relativity.

Gravitational Waves: Search Results, Data Analysis and Parameter Estimation. Amaldi 10 Parallel Session C2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Astone, Pia; Weinstein, Alan; Agathos, Michalis; Bejger, Michal; Christensen, Nelson; Dent, Thomas; Graff, Philip; Klimenko, Sergey; Mazzolo, Giulio; Nishizawa, Atsushi

2015-01-01

The Amaldi 10 Parallel Session C2 on gravitational wave(GW) search results, data analysis and parameter estimation included three lively sessions of lectures by 13 presenters, and 34 posters. The talks and posters covered a huge range of material, including results and analysis techniques for ground-based GW detectors, targeting anticipated signals from different astrophysical sources: compact binary inspiral, merger and ringdown; GW bursts from intermediate mass binary black hole mergers, cosmic string cusps, core-collapse supernovae, and other unmodeled sources; continuous waves from spinning neutron stars; and a stochastic GW background. There was considerable emphasis on Bayesian techniques for estimating the parameters of coalescing compact binary systems from the gravitational waveforms extracted from the data from the advanced detector network. This included methods to distinguish deviations of the signals from what is expected in the context of General Relativity.

Resolving Recent Plant Radiations: Power and Robustness of Genotyping-by-Sequencing.

PubMed

Fernández-Mazuecos, Mario; Mellers, Greg; Vigalondo, Beatriz; Sáez, Llorenç; Vargas, Pablo; Glover, Beverley J

2018-03-01

Disentangling species boundaries and phylogenetic relationships within recent evolutionary radiations is a challenge due to the poor morphological differentiation and low genetic divergence between species, frequently accompanied by phenotypic convergence, interspecific gene flow and incomplete lineage sorting. Here we employed a genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) approach, in combination with morphometric analyses, to investigate a small western Mediterranean clade in the flowering plant genus Linaria that radiated in the Quaternary. After confirming the morphological and genetic distinctness of eight species, we evaluated the relative performances of concatenation and coalescent methods to resolve phylogenetic relationships. Specifically, we focused on assessing the robustness of both approaches to variations in the parameter used to estimate sequence homology (clustering threshold). Concatenation analyses suffered from strong systematic bias, as revealed by the high statistical support for multiple alternative topologies depending on clustering threshold values. By contrast, topologies produced by two coalescent-based methods (NJ$_{\\mathrm{st}}$, SVDquartets) were robust to variations in the clustering threshold. Reticulate evolution may partly explain incongruences between NJ$_{\\mathrm{st}}$, SVDquartets and concatenated trees. Integration of morphometric and coalescent-based phylogenetic results revealed (i) extensive morphological divergence associated with recent splits between geographically close or sympatric sister species and (ii) morphological convergence in geographically disjunct species. These patterns are particularly true for floral traits related to pollinator specialization, including nectar spur length, tube width and corolla color, suggesting pollinator-driven diversification. Given its relatively simple and inexpensive implementation, GBS is a promising technique for the phylogenetic and systematic study of recent radiations, but care must be taken to evaluate the robustness of results to variation of data assembly parameters.

Phylogeography of Tibouchina papyrus (Pohl) Toledo (Melastomataceae), an endangered tree species from rocky savannas, suggests bidirectional expansion due to climate cooling in the Pleistocene

PubMed Central

Collevatti, Rosane Garcia; de Castro, Thaís Guimarães; de Souza Lima, Jacqueline; de Campos Telles, Mariana Pires

2012-01-01

Many endemic species present disjunct geographical distribution; therefore, they are suitable models to test hypotheses about the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms involved in the origin of disjunct distributions in these habitats. We studied the genetic structure and phylogeography of Tibouchina papyrus (Melastomataceae), endemic to rocky savannas in Central Brazil, to test hypothesis of vicariance and dispersal in the origin of the disjunct geographical distribution. We sampled 474 individuals from the three localities where the species is reported: Serra dos Pirineus, Serra Dourada, and Serra de Natividade. Analyses were based on the polymorphisms at cpDNA and on nuclear microsatellite loci. To test for vicariance and dispersal we constructed a median-joining network and performed an analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA). We also tested population bottleneck and estimated demographic parameters and time to most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) using coalescent analyses. A remarkable differentiation among populations was found. No significant effect of population expansion was detected and coalescent analyses showed a negligible gene flow among populations and an ancient coalescence time for chloroplast genome. Our results support that the disjunct distribution of T. papyrus may represent a climatic relict. With an estimated TMRCA dated from ∼836.491 ± 107.515 kyr BP (before present), we hypothesized that the disjunct distribution may be the outcome of bidirectional expansion of the geographical distribution favored by the drier and colder conditions that prevailed in much of Brazil during the Pre-Illinoian glaciation, followed by the retraction as the climate became warmer and moister. PMID:22837846

Inferences about binary stellar populations using gravitational wave observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wysocki, Daniel; Gerosa, Davide; O'Shaughnessy, Richard; Belczynski, Krzysztof; Gladysz, Wojciech; Berti, Emanuele; Kesden, Michael; Holz, Daniel

2018-01-01

With the dawn of gravitational wave astronomy, enabled by the LIGO and Virgo interferometers, we now have a new window into the Universe. In the short time these detectors have been in use, multiple confirmed detections of gravitational waves from compact binary coalescences have been made. Stellar binary systems are one of the likely progenitors of the observed compact binary sources. If this is indeed the case, then we can use measured properties of these binary systems to learn about their progenitors. We will discuss the Bayesian framework in which we make these inferences, and results which include mass and spin distributions.

Ancient DNA Reveals Prehistoric Gene-Flow from Siberia in the Complex Human Population History of North East Europe

PubMed Central

Der Sarkissian, Clio; Balanovsky, Oleg; Brandt, Guido; Khartanovich, Valery; Buzhilova, Alexandra; Koshel, Sergey; Zaporozhchenko, Valery; Gronenborn, Detlef; Moiseyev, Vyacheslav; Kolpakov, Eugen; Shumkin, Vladimir; Alt, Kurt W.; Balanovska, Elena; Cooper, Alan; Haak, Wolfgang

2013-01-01

North East Europe harbors a high diversity of cultures and languages, suggesting a complex genetic history. Archaeological, anthropological, and genetic research has revealed a series of influences from Western and Eastern Eurasia in the past. While genetic data from modern-day populations is commonly used to make inferences about their origins and past migrations, ancient DNA provides a powerful test of such hypotheses by giving a snapshot of the past genetic diversity. In order to better understand the dynamics that have shaped the gene pool of North East Europeans, we generated and analyzed 34 mitochondrial genotypes from the skeletal remains of three archaeological sites in northwest Russia. These sites were dated to the Mesolithic and the Early Metal Age (7,500 and 3,500 uncalibrated years Before Present). We applied a suite of population genetic analyses (principal component analysis, genetic distance mapping, haplotype sharing analyses) and compared past demographic models through coalescent simulations using Bayesian Serial SimCoal and Approximate Bayesian Computation. Comparisons of genetic data from ancient and modern-day populations revealed significant changes in the mitochondrial makeup of North East Europeans through time. Mesolithic foragers showed high frequencies and diversity of haplogroups U (U2e, U4, U5a), a pattern observed previously in European hunter-gatherers from Iberia to Scandinavia. In contrast, the presence of mitochondrial DNA haplogroups C, D, and Z in Early Metal Age individuals suggested discontinuity with Mesolithic hunter-gatherers and genetic influx from central/eastern Siberia. We identified remarkable genetic dissimilarities between prehistoric and modern-day North East Europeans/Saami, which suggests an important role of post-Mesolithic migrations from Western Europe and subsequent population replacement/extinctions. This work demonstrates how ancient DNA can improve our understanding of human population movements across Eurasia. It contributes to the description of the spatio-temporal distribution of mitochondrial diversity and will be of significance for future reconstructions of the history of Europeans. PMID:23459685

Historical isolation and contemporary gene flow drive population diversity of the brown alga Sargassum thunbergii along the coast of China.

PubMed

Li, Jing-Jing; Hu, Zi-Min; Sun, Zhong-Min; Yao, Jian-Ting; Liu, Fu-Li; Fresia, Pablo; Duan, De-Lin

2017-12-07

Long-term survival in isolated marginal seas of the China coast during the late Pleistocene ice ages is widely believed to be an important historical factor contributing to population genetic structure in coastal marine species. Whether or not contemporary factors (e.g. long-distance dispersal via coastal currents) continue to shape diversity gradients in marine organisms with high dispersal capability remains poorly understood. Our aim was to explore how historical and contemporary factors influenced the genetic diversity and distribution of the brown alga Sargassum thunbergii, which can drift on surface water, leading to long-distance dispersal. We used 11 microsatellites and the plastid RuBisCo spacer to evaluate the genetic diversity of 22 Sargassum thunbergii populations sampled along the China coast. Population structure and differentiation was inferred based on genotype clustering and pairwise F ST and allele-frequency analyses. Integrated genetic analyses revealed two genetic clusters in S. thunbergii that dominated in the Yellow-Bohai Sea (YBS) and East China Sea (ECS) respectively. Higher levels of genetic diversity and variation were detected among populations in the YBS than in the ECS. Bayesian coalescent theory was used to estimate contemporary and historical gene flow. High levels of contemporary gene flow were detected from the YBS (north) to the ECS (south), whereas low levels of historical gene flow occurred between the two regions. Our results suggest that the deep genetic divergence in S. thunbergii along the China coast may result from long-term geographic isolation during glacial periods. The dispersal of S. thunbergii driven by coastal currents may facilitate the admixture between southern and northern regimes. Our findings exemplify how both historical and contemporary forces are needed to understand phylogeographical patterns in coastal marine species with long-distance dispersal.

Genealogical relationships between early medieval and modern inhabitants of Piedmont.

PubMed

Vai, Stefania; Ghirotto, Silvia; Pilli, Elena; Tassi, Francesca; Lari, Martina; Rizzi, Ermanno; Matas-Lalueza, Laura; Ramirez, Oscar; Lalueza-Fox, Carles; Achilli, Alessandro; Olivieri, Anna; Torroni, Antonio; Lancioni, Hovirag; Giostra, Caterina; Bedini, Elena; Pejrani Baricco, Luisella; Matullo, Giuseppe; Di Gaetano, Cornelia; Piazza, Alberto; Veeramah, Krishna; Geary, Patrick; Caramelli, David; Barbujani, Guido

2015-01-01

In the period between 400 to 800 AD, also known as the period of the Barbarian invasions, intense migration is documented in the historical record of Europe. However, little is known about the demographic impact of these historical movements, potentially ranging from negligible to substantial. As a pilot study in a broader project on Medieval Europe, we sampled 102 specimens from 5 burial sites in Northwestern Italy, archaeologically classified as belonging to Lombards or Longobards, a Germanic people ruling over a vast section of the Italian peninsula from 568 to 774. We successfully amplified and typed the mitochondrial hypervariable region I (HVR-I) of 28 individuals. Comparisons of genetic diversity with other ancient populations and haplotype networks did not suggest that these samples are heterogeneous, and hence allowed us to jointly compare them with three isolated contemporary populations, and with a modern sample of a large city, representing a control for the effects of recent immigration. We then generated by serial coalescent simulations 16 millions of genealogies, contrasting a model of genealogical continuity with one in which the contemporary samples are genealogically independent from the medieval sample. Analyses by Approximate Bayesian Computation showed that the latter model fits the data in most cases, with one exception, Trino Vercellese, in which the evidence was compatible with persistence up to the present time of genetic features observed among this early medieval population. We conclude that it is possible, in general, to detect evidence of genealogical ties between medieval and specific modern populations. However, only seldom did mitochondrial DNA data allow us to reject with confidence either model tested, which indicates that broader analyses, based on larger assemblages of samples and genetic markers, are needed to understand in detail the effects of medieval migration.

Genealogical Relationships between Early Medieval and Modern Inhabitants of Piedmont

PubMed Central

Vai, Stefania; Ghirotto, Silvia; Pilli, Elena; Tassi, Francesca; Lari, Martina; Rizzi, Ermanno; Matas-Lalueza, Laura; Ramirez, Oscar; Lalueza-Fox, Carles; Achilli, Alessandro; Olivieri, Anna; Torroni, Antonio; Lancioni, Hovirag; Giostra, Caterina; Bedini, Elena; Baricco, Luisella Pejrani; Matullo, Giuseppe; Di Gaetano, Cornelia; Piazza, Alberto; Veeramah, Krishna; Geary, Patrick; Caramelli, David; Barbujani, Guido

2015-01-01

In the period between 400 to 800 AD, also known as the period of the Barbarian invasions, intense migration is documented in the historical record of Europe. However, little is known about the demographic impact of these historical movements, potentially ranging from negligible to substantial. As a pilot study in a broader project on Medieval Europe, we sampled 102 specimens from 5 burial sites in Northwestern Italy, archaeologically classified as belonging to Lombards or Longobards, a Germanic people ruling over a vast section of the Italian peninsula from 568 to 774. We successfully amplified and typed the mitochondrial hypervariable region I (HVR-I) of 28 individuals. Comparisons of genetic diversity with other ancient populations and haplotype networks did not suggest that these samples are heterogeneous, and hence allowed us to jointly compare them with three isolated contemporary populations, and with a modern sample of a large city, representing a control for the effects of recent immigration. We then generated by serial coalescent simulations 16 millions of genealogies, contrasting a model of genealogical continuity with one in which the contemporary samples are genealogically independent from the medieval sample. Analyses by Approximate Bayesian Computation showed that the latter model fits the data in most cases, with one exception, Trino Vercellese, in which the evidence was compatible with persistence up to the present time of genetic features observed among this early medieval population. We conclude that it is possible, in general, to detect evidence of genealogical ties between medieval and specific modern populations. However, only seldom did mitochondrial DNA data allow us to reject with confidence either model tested, which indicates that broader analyses, based on larger assemblages of samples and genetic markers, are needed to understand in detail the effects of medieval migration. PMID:25635682

Population dynamics and in vitro antibody pressure of porcine parvovirus indicate a decrease in variability.

PubMed

Streck, André Felipe; Homeier, Timo; Foerster, Tessa; Truyen, Uwe

2013-09-01

To estimate the impact of porcine parvovirus (PPV) vaccines on the emergence of new phenotypes, the population dynamic history of the virus was calculated using the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method with a Bayesian skyline coalescent model. Additionally, an in vitro model was performed with consecutive passages of the 'Challenge' strain (a virulent field strain) and NADL2 strain (a vaccine strain) in a PK-15 cell line supplemented with polyclonal antibodies raised against the vaccine strain. A decrease in genetic diversity was observed in the presence of antibodies in vitro or after vaccination (as estimated by the in silico model). We hypothesized that the antibodies induced a selective pressure that may reduce the incidence of neutral selection, which should play a major role in the emergence of new mutations. In this scenario, vaccine failures and non-vaccinated populations (e.g. wild boars) may have an important impact in the emergence of new phenotypes.

Estimating mutation parameters, population history and genealogy simultaneously from temporally spaced sequence data.

PubMed Central

Drummond, Alexei J; Nicholls, Geoff K; Rodrigo, Allen G; Solomon, Wiremu

2002-01-01

Molecular sequences obtained at different sampling times from populations of rapidly evolving pathogens and from ancient subfossil and fossil sources are increasingly available with modern sequencing technology. Here, we present a Bayesian statistical inference approach to the joint estimation of mutation rate and population size that incorporates the uncertainty in the genealogy of such temporally spaced sequences by using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) integration. The Kingman coalescent model is used to describe the time structure of the ancestral tree. We recover information about the unknown true ancestral coalescent tree, population size, and the overall mutation rate from temporally spaced data, that is, from nucleotide sequences gathered at different times, from different individuals, in an evolving haploid population. We briefly discuss the methodological implications and show what can be inferred, in various practically relevant states of prior knowledge. We develop extensions for exponentially growing population size and joint estimation of substitution model parameters. We illustrate some of the important features of this approach on a genealogy of HIV-1 envelope (env) partial sequences. PMID:12136032

Estimating mutation parameters, population history and genealogy simultaneously from temporally spaced sequence data.

PubMed

Drummond, Alexei J; Nicholls, Geoff K; Rodrigo, Allen G; Solomon, Wiremu

2002-07-01

Molecular sequences obtained at different sampling times from populations of rapidly evolving pathogens and from ancient subfossil and fossil sources are increasingly available with modern sequencing technology. Here, we present a Bayesian statistical inference approach to the joint estimation of mutation rate and population size that incorporates the uncertainty in the genealogy of such temporally spaced sequences by using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) integration. The Kingman coalescent model is used to describe the time structure of the ancestral tree. We recover information about the unknown true ancestral coalescent tree, population size, and the overall mutation rate from temporally spaced data, that is, from nucleotide sequences gathered at different times, from different individuals, in an evolving haploid population. We briefly discuss the methodological implications and show what can be inferred, in various practically relevant states of prior knowledge. We develop extensions for exponentially growing population size and joint estimation of substitution model parameters. We illustrate some of the important features of this approach on a genealogy of HIV-1 envelope (env) partial sequences.

Implementing informative priors for heterogeneity in meta-analysis using meta-regression and pseudo data.

PubMed

Rhodes, Kirsty M; Turner, Rebecca M; White, Ian R; Jackson, Dan; Spiegelhalter, David J; Higgins, Julian P T

2016-12-20

Many meta-analyses combine results from only a small number of studies, a situation in which the between-study variance is imprecisely estimated when standard methods are applied. Bayesian meta-analysis allows incorporation of external evidence on heterogeneity, providing the potential for more robust inference on the effect size of interest. We present a method for performing Bayesian meta-analysis using data augmentation, in which we represent an informative conjugate prior for between-study variance by pseudo data and use meta-regression for estimation. To assist in this, we derive predictive inverse-gamma distributions for the between-study variance expected in future meta-analyses. These may serve as priors for heterogeneity in new meta-analyses. In a simulation study, we compare approximate Bayesian methods using meta-regression and pseudo data against fully Bayesian approaches based on importance sampling techniques and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We compare the frequentist properties of these Bayesian methods with those of the commonly used frequentist DerSimonian and Laird procedure. The method is implemented in standard statistical software and provides a less complex alternative to standard MCMC approaches. An importance sampling approach produces almost identical results to standard MCMC approaches, and results obtained through meta-regression and pseudo data are very similar. On average, data augmentation provides closer results to MCMC, if implemented using restricted maximum likelihood estimation rather than DerSimonian and Laird or maximum likelihood estimation. The methods are applied to real datasets, and an extension to network meta-analysis is described. The proposed method facilitates Bayesian meta-analysis in a way that is accessible to applied researchers. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cross-Border Sexual Transmission of the Newly Emerging HIV-1 Clade CRF51_01B

PubMed Central

Cheong, Hui Ting; Ng, Kim Tien; Ong, Lai Yee; Chook, Jack Bee; Chan, Kok Gan; Takebe, Yutaka; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Tee, Kok Keng

2014-01-01

A novel HIV-1 recombinant clade (CRF51_01B) was recently identified among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Singapore. As cases of sexually transmitted HIV-1 infection increase concurrently in two socioeconomically intimate countries such as Malaysia and Singapore, cross transmission of HIV-1 between said countries is highly probable. In order to investigate the timeline for the emergence of HIV-1 CRF51_01B in Singapore and its possible introduction into Malaysia, 595 HIV-positive subjects recruited in Kuala Lumpur from 2008 to 2012 were screened. Phylogenetic relationship of 485 amplified polymerase gene sequences was determined through neighbour-joining method. Next, near-full length sequences were amplified for genomic sequences inferred to be CRF51_01B and subjected to further analysis implemented through Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and maximum likelihood methods. Based on the near full length genomes, two isolates formed a phylogenetic cluster with CRF51_01B sequences of Singapore origin, sharing identical recombination structure. Spatial and temporal information from Bayesian MCMC coalescent and maximum likelihood analysis of the protease, gp120 and gp41 genes suggest that Singapore is probably the country of origin of CRF51_01B (as early as in the mid-1990s) and featured a Malaysian who acquired the infection through heterosexual contact as host for its ancestral lineages. CRF51_01B then spread rapidly among the MSM in Singapore and Malaysia. Although the importation of CRF51_01B from Singapore to Malaysia is supported by coalescence analysis, the narrow timeframe of the transmission event indicates a closely linked epidemic. Discrepancies in the estimated divergence times suggest that CRF51_01B may have arisen through multiple recombination events from more than one parental lineage. We report the cross transmission of a novel CRF51_01B lineage between countries that involved different sexual risk groups. Understanding the cross-border transmission of HIV-1 involving sexual networks is crucial for effective intervention strategies in the region. PMID:25340817

Cross-border sexual transmission of the newly emerging HIV-1 clade CRF51_01B.

PubMed

Cheong, Hui Ting; Ng, Kim Tien; Ong, Lai Yee; Chook, Jack Bee; Chan, Kok Gan; Takebe, Yutaka; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Tee, Kok Keng

2014-01-01

A novel HIV-1 recombinant clade (CRF51_01B) was recently identified among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Singapore. As cases of sexually transmitted HIV-1 infection increase concurrently in two socioeconomically intimate countries such as Malaysia and Singapore, cross transmission of HIV-1 between said countries is highly probable. In order to investigate the timeline for the emergence of HIV-1 CRF51_01B in Singapore and its possible introduction into Malaysia, 595 HIV-positive subjects recruited in Kuala Lumpur from 2008 to 2012 were screened. Phylogenetic relationship of 485 amplified polymerase gene sequences was determined through neighbour-joining method. Next, near-full length sequences were amplified for genomic sequences inferred to be CRF51_01B and subjected to further analysis implemented through Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and maximum likelihood methods. Based on the near full length genomes, two isolates formed a phylogenetic cluster with CRF51_01B sequences of Singapore origin, sharing identical recombination structure. Spatial and temporal information from Bayesian MCMC coalescent and maximum likelihood analysis of the protease, gp120 and gp41 genes suggest that Singapore is probably the country of origin of CRF51_01B (as early as in the mid-1990s) and featured a Malaysian who acquired the infection through heterosexual contact as host for its ancestral lineages. CRF51_01B then spread rapidly among the MSM in Singapore and Malaysia. Although the importation of CRF51_01B from Singapore to Malaysia is supported by coalescence analysis, the narrow timeframe of the transmission event indicates a closely linked epidemic. Discrepancies in the estimated divergence times suggest that CRF51_01B may have arisen through multiple recombination events from more than one parental lineage. We report the cross transmission of a novel CRF51_01B lineage between countries that involved different sexual risk groups. Understanding the cross-border transmission of HIV-1 involving sexual networks is crucial for effective intervention strategies in the region.

Accounting for Uncertainty in Gene Tree Estimation: Summary-Coalescent Species Tree Inference in a Challenging Radiation of Australian Lizards.

PubMed

Blom, Mozes P K; Bragg, Jason G; Potter, Sally; Moritz, Craig

2017-05-01

Accurate gene tree inference is an important aspect of species tree estimation in a summary-coalescent framework. Yet, in empirical studies, inferred gene trees differ in accuracy due to stochastic variation in phylogenetic signal between targeted loci. Empiricists should, therefore, examine the consistency of species tree inference, while accounting for the observed heterogeneity in gene tree resolution of phylogenomic data sets. Here, we assess the impact of gene tree estimation error on summary-coalescent species tree inference by screening ${\\sim}2000$ exonic loci based on gene tree resolution prior to phylogenetic inference. We focus on a phylogenetically challenging radiation of Australian lizards (genus Cryptoblepharus, Scincidae) and explore effects on topology and support. We identify a well-supported topology based on all loci and find that a relatively small number of high-resolution gene trees can be sufficient to converge on the same topology. Adding gene trees with decreasing resolution produced a generally consistent topology, and increased confidence for specific bipartitions that were poorly supported when using a small number of informative loci. This corroborates coalescent-based simulation studies that have highlighted the need for a large number of loci to confidently resolve challenging relationships and refutes the notion that low-resolution gene trees introduce phylogenetic noise. Further, our study also highlights the value of quantifying changes in nodal support across locus subsets of increasing size (but decreasing gene tree resolution). Such detailed analyses can reveal anomalous fluctuations in support at some nodes, suggesting the possibility of model violation. By characterizing the heterogeneity in phylogenetic signal among loci, we can account for uncertainty in gene tree estimation and assess its effect on the consistency of the species tree estimate. We suggest that the evaluation of gene tree resolution should be incorporated in the analysis of empirical phylogenomic data sets. This will ultimately increase our confidence in species tree estimation using summary-coalescent methods and enable us to exploit genomic data for phylogenetic inference. [Coalescence; concatenation; Cryptoblepharus; exon capture; gene tree; phylogenomics; species tree.]. © The authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permission@oup.com.

Coalescence computations for large samples drawn from populations of time-varying sizes

PubMed Central

Polanski, Andrzej; Szczesna, Agnieszka; Garbulowski, Mateusz; Kimmel, Marek

2017-01-01

We present new results concerning probability distributions of times in the coalescence tree and expected allele frequencies for coalescent with large sample size. The obtained results are based on computational methodologies, which involve combining coalescence time scale changes with techniques of integral transformations and using analytical formulae for infinite products. We show applications of the proposed methodologies for computing probability distributions of times in the coalescence tree and their limits, for evaluation of accuracy of approximate expressions for times in the coalescence tree and expected allele frequencies, and for analysis of large human mitochondrial DNA dataset. PMID:28170404

Bayesian Analysis of Silica Exposure and Lung Cancer Using Human and Animal Studies.

PubMed

Bartell, Scott M; Hamra, Ghassan Badri; Steenland, Kyle

2017-03-01

Bayesian methods can be used to incorporate external information into epidemiologic exposure-response analyses of silica and lung cancer. We used data from a pooled mortality analysis of silica and lung cancer (n = 65,980), using untransformed and log-transformed cumulative exposure. Animal data came from chronic silica inhalation studies using rats. We conducted Bayesian analyses with informative priors based on the animal data and different cross-species extrapolation factors. We also conducted analyses with exposure measurement error corrections in the absence of a gold standard, assuming Berkson-type error that increased with increasing exposure. The pooled animal data exposure-response coefficient was markedly higher (log exposure) or lower (untransformed exposure) than the coefficient for the pooled human data. With 10-fold uncertainty, the animal prior had little effect on results for pooled analyses and only modest effects in some individual studies. One-fold uncertainty produced markedly different results for both pooled and individual studies. Measurement error correction had little effect in pooled analyses using log exposure. Using untransformed exposure, measurement error correction caused a 5% decrease in the exposure-response coefficient for the pooled analysis and marked changes in some individual studies. The animal prior had more impact for smaller human studies and for one-fold versus three- or 10-fold uncertainty. Adjustment for Berkson error using Bayesian methods had little effect on the exposure-response coefficient when exposure was log transformed or when the sample size was large. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B160.

Bayesian model selection techniques as decision support for shaping a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial: An example from a vertigo phase III study with longitudinal count data as primary endpoint

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background A statistical analysis plan (SAP) is a critical link between how a clinical trial is conducted and the clinical study report. To secure objective study results, regulatory bodies expect that the SAP will meet requirements in pre-specifying inferential analyses and other important statistical techniques. To write a good SAP for model-based sensitivity and ancillary analyses involves non-trivial decisions on and justification of many aspects of the chosen setting. In particular, trials with longitudinal count data as primary endpoints pose challenges for model choice and model validation. In the random effects setting, frequentist strategies for model assessment and model diagnosis are complex and not easily implemented and have several limitations. Therefore, it is of interest to explore Bayesian alternatives which provide the needed decision support to finalize a SAP. Methods We focus on generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) for the analysis of longitudinal count data. A series of distributions with over- and under-dispersion is considered. Additionally, the structure of the variance components is modified. We perform a simulation study to investigate the discriminatory power of Bayesian tools for model criticism in different scenarios derived from the model setting. We apply the findings to the data from an open clinical trial on vertigo attacks. These data are seen as pilot data for an ongoing phase III trial. To fit GLMMs we use a novel Bayesian computational approach based on integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs). The INLA methodology enables the direct computation of leave-one-out predictive distributions. These distributions are crucial for Bayesian model assessment. We evaluate competing GLMMs for longitudinal count data according to the deviance information criterion (DIC) or probability integral transform (PIT), and by using proper scoring rules (e.g. the logarithmic score). Results The instruments under study provide excellent tools for preparing decisions within the SAP in a transparent way when structuring the primary analysis, sensitivity or ancillary analyses, and specific analyses for secondary endpoints. The mean logarithmic score and DIC discriminate well between different model scenarios. It becomes obvious that the naive choice of a conventional random effects Poisson model is often inappropriate for real-life count data. The findings are used to specify an appropriate mixed model employed in the sensitivity analyses of an ongoing phase III trial. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian methods are not only appealing for inference but notably provide a sophisticated insight into different aspects of model performance, such as forecast verification or calibration checks, and can be applied within the model selection process. The mean of the logarithmic score is a robust tool for model ranking and is not sensitive to sample size. Therefore, these Bayesian model selection techniques offer helpful decision support for shaping sensitivity and ancillary analyses in a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial with longitudinal count data as the primary endpoint. PMID:22962944

Bayesian model selection techniques as decision support for shaping a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial: an example from a vertigo phase III study with longitudinal count data as primary endpoint.

PubMed

Adrion, Christine; Mansmann, Ulrich

2012-09-10

A statistical analysis plan (SAP) is a critical link between how a clinical trial is conducted and the clinical study report. To secure objective study results, regulatory bodies expect that the SAP will meet requirements in pre-specifying inferential analyses and other important statistical techniques. To write a good SAP for model-based sensitivity and ancillary analyses involves non-trivial decisions on and justification of many aspects of the chosen setting. In particular, trials with longitudinal count data as primary endpoints pose challenges for model choice and model validation. In the random effects setting, frequentist strategies for model assessment and model diagnosis are complex and not easily implemented and have several limitations. Therefore, it is of interest to explore Bayesian alternatives which provide the needed decision support to finalize a SAP. We focus on generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) for the analysis of longitudinal count data. A series of distributions with over- and under-dispersion is considered. Additionally, the structure of the variance components is modified. We perform a simulation study to investigate the discriminatory power of Bayesian tools for model criticism in different scenarios derived from the model setting. We apply the findings to the data from an open clinical trial on vertigo attacks. These data are seen as pilot data for an ongoing phase III trial. To fit GLMMs we use a novel Bayesian computational approach based on integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs). The INLA methodology enables the direct computation of leave-one-out predictive distributions. These distributions are crucial for Bayesian model assessment. We evaluate competing GLMMs for longitudinal count data according to the deviance information criterion (DIC) or probability integral transform (PIT), and by using proper scoring rules (e.g. the logarithmic score). The instruments under study provide excellent tools for preparing decisions within the SAP in a transparent way when structuring the primary analysis, sensitivity or ancillary analyses, and specific analyses for secondary endpoints. The mean logarithmic score and DIC discriminate well between different model scenarios. It becomes obvious that the naive choice of a conventional random effects Poisson model is often inappropriate for real-life count data. The findings are used to specify an appropriate mixed model employed in the sensitivity analyses of an ongoing phase III trial. The proposed Bayesian methods are not only appealing for inference but notably provide a sophisticated insight into different aspects of model performance, such as forecast verification or calibration checks, and can be applied within the model selection process. The mean of the logarithmic score is a robust tool for model ranking and is not sensitive to sample size. Therefore, these Bayesian model selection techniques offer helpful decision support for shaping sensitivity and ancillary analyses in a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial with longitudinal count data as the primary endpoint.

Bayesian analyses of time-interval data for environmental radiation monitoring.

PubMed

Luo, Peng; Sharp, Julia L; DeVol, Timothy A

2013-01-01

Time-interval (time difference between two consecutive pulses) analysis based on the principles of Bayesian inference was investigated for online radiation monitoring. Using experimental and simulated data, Bayesian analysis of time-interval data [Bayesian (ti)] was compared with Bayesian and a conventional frequentist analysis of counts in a fixed count time [Bayesian (cnt) and single interval test (SIT), respectively]. The performances of the three methods were compared in terms of average run length (ARL) and detection probability for several simulated detection scenarios. Experimental data were acquired with a DGF-4C system in list mode. Simulated data were obtained using Monte Carlo techniques to obtain a random sampling of the Poisson distribution. All statistical algorithms were developed using the R Project for statistical computing. Bayesian analysis of time-interval information provided a similar detection probability as Bayesian analysis of count information, but the authors were able to make a decision with fewer pulses at relatively higher radiation levels. In addition, for the cases with very short presence of the source (< count time), time-interval information is more sensitive to detect a change than count information since the source data is averaged by the background data over the entire count time. The relationships of the source time, change points, and modifications to the Bayesian approach for increasing detection probability are presented.

Multispecies coalescent analysis of the early diversification of neotropical primates: phylogenetic inference under strong gene trees/species tree conflict.

PubMed

Schrago, Carlos G; Menezes, Albert N; Furtado, Carolina; Bonvicino, Cibele R; Seuanez, Hector N

2014-11-05

Neotropical primates (NP) are presently distributed in the New World from Mexico to northern Argentina, comprising three large families, Cebidae, Atelidae, and Pitheciidae, consequently to their diversification following their separation from Old World anthropoids near the Eocene/Oligocene boundary, some 40 Ma. The evolution of NP has been intensively investigated in the last decade by studies focusing on their phylogeny and timescale. However, despite major efforts, the phylogenetic relationship between these three major clades and the age of their last common ancestor are still controversial because these inferences were based on limited numbers of loci and dating analyses that did not consider the evolutionary variation associated with the distribution of gene trees within the proposed phylogenies. We show, by multispecies coalescent analyses of selected genome segments, spanning along 92,496,904 bp that the early diversification of extant NP was marked by a 2-fold increase of their effective population size and that Atelids and Cebids are more closely related respective to Pitheciids. The molecular phylogeny of NP has been difficult to solve because of population-level phenomena at the early evolution of the lineage. The association of evolutionary variation with the distribution of gene trees within proposed phylogenies is crucial for distinguishing the mean genetic divergence between species (the mean coalescent time between loci) from speciation time. This approach, based on extensive genomic data provided by new generation DNA sequencing, provides more accurate reconstructions of phylogenies and timescales for all organisms. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Bayesian B-spline mapping for dynamic quantitative traits.

PubMed

Xing, Jun; Li, Jiahan; Yang, Runqing; Zhou, Xiaojing; Xu, Shizhong

2012-04-01

Owing to their ability and flexibility to describe individual gene expression at different time points, random regression (RR) analyses have become a popular procedure for the genetic analysis of dynamic traits whose phenotypes are collected over time. Specifically, when modelling the dynamic patterns of gene expressions in the RR framework, B-splines have been proved successful as an alternative to orthogonal polynomials. In the so-called Bayesian B-spline quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping, B-splines are used to characterize the patterns of QTL effects and individual-specific time-dependent environmental errors over time, and the Bayesian shrinkage estimation method is employed to estimate model parameters. Extensive simulations demonstrate that (1) in terms of statistical power, Bayesian B-spline mapping outperforms the interval mapping based on the maximum likelihood; (2) for the simulated dataset with complicated growth curve simulated by B-splines, Legendre polynomial-based Bayesian mapping is not capable of identifying the designed QTLs accurately, even when higher-order Legendre polynomials are considered and (3) for the simulated dataset using Legendre polynomials, the Bayesian B-spline mapping can find the same QTLs as those identified by Legendre polynomial analysis. All simulation results support the necessity and flexibility of B-spline in Bayesian mapping of dynamic traits. The proposed method is also applied to a real dataset, where QTLs controlling the growth trajectory of stem diameters in Populus are located.

Phylogenetic Relationships and Species Delimitation in Pinus Section Trifoliae Inferrred from Plastid DNA

PubMed Central

Hernández-León, Sergio; Gernandt, David S.; Pérez de la Rosa, Jorge A.; Jardón-Barbolla, Lev

2013-01-01

Recent diversification followed by secondary contact and hybridization may explain complex patterns of intra- and interspecific morphological and genetic variation in the North American hard pines (Pinus section Trifoliae), a group of approximately 49 tree species distributed in North and Central America and the Caribbean islands. We concatenated five plastid DNA markers for an average of 3.9 individuals per putative species and assessed the suitability of the five regions as DNA bar codes for species identification, species delimitation, and phylogenetic reconstruction. The ycf1 gene accounted for the greatest proportion of the alignment (46.9%), the greatest proportion of variable sites (74.9%), and the most unique sequences (75 haplotypes). Phylogenetic analysis recovered clades corresponding to subsections Australes, Contortae, and Ponderosae. Sequences for 23 of the 49 species were monophyletic and sequences for another 9 species were paraphyletic. Morphologically similar species within subsections usually grouped together, but there were exceptions consistent with incomplete lineage sorting or introgression. Bayesian relaxed molecular clock analyses indicated that all three subsections diversified relatively recently during the Miocene. The general mixed Yule-coalescent method gave a mixed model estimate of only 22 or 23 evolutionary entities for the plastid sequences, which corresponds to less than half the 49 species recognized based on morphological species assignments. Including more unique haplotypes per species may result in higher estimates, but low mutation rates, recent diversification, and large effective population sizes may limit the effectiveness of this method to detect evolutionary entities. PMID:23936218

Inferring genealogical processes from patterns of Bronze-Age and modern DNA variation in Sardinia.

PubMed

Ghirotto, Silvia; Mona, Stefano; Benazzo, Andrea; Paparazzo, Francesco; Caramelli, David; Barbujani, Guido

2010-04-01

The ancient inhabitants of a region are often regarded as ancestral, and hence genetically related, to the modern dwellers (for instance, in studies of admixture), but so far, this assumption has not been tested empirically using ancient DNA data. We studied mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation in Sardinia, across a time span of 2,500 years, comparing 23 Bronze-Age (nuragic) mtDNA sequences with those of 254 modern individuals from two regions, Ogliastra (a likely genetic isolate) and Gallura, and considering the possible impact of gene flow from mainland Italy. To understand the genealogical relationships between past and present populations, we developed seven explicit demographic models; we tested whether these models can account for the levels and patterns of genetic diversity in the data and which one does it best. Extensive simulation based on a serial coalescent algorithm allowed us to compare the posterior probability of each model and estimate the relevant evolutionary (mutation and migration rates) and demographic (effective population sizes, times since population splits) parameters, by approximate Bayesian computations. We then validated the analyses by investigating how well parameters estimated from the simulated data can reproduce the observed data set. We show that a direct genealogical continuity between Bronze-Age Sardinians and the current people of Ogliastra, but not Gallura, has a much higher probability than any alternative scenarios and that genetic diversity in Gallura evolved largely independently, owing in part to gene flow from the mainland.

Forest corridors maintain historical gene flow in a tiger metapopulation in the highlands of central India.

PubMed

Sharma, Sandeep; Dutta, Trishna; Maldonado, Jesús E; Wood, Thomas C; Panwar, Hemendra Singh; Seidensticker, John

2013-09-22

Understanding the patterns of gene flow of an endangered species metapopulation occupying a fragmented habitat is crucial for landscape-level conservation planning and devising effective conservation strategies. Tigers (Panthera tigris) are globally endangered and their populations are highly fragmented and exist in a few isolated metapopulations across their range. We used multi-locus genotypic data from 273 individual tigers (Panthera tigris tigris) from four tiger populations of the Satpura-Maikal landscape of central India to determine whether the corridors in this landscape are functional. This 45 000 km(2) landscape contains 17% of India's tiger population and 12% of its tiger habitat. We applied Bayesian and coalescent-based analyses to estimate contemporary and historical gene flow among these populations and to infer their evolutionary history. We found that the tiger metapopulation in central India has high rates of historical and contemporary gene flow. The tests for population history reveal that tigers populated central India about 10 000 years ago. Their population subdivision began about 1000 years ago and accelerated about 200 years ago owing to habitat fragmentation, leading to four spatially separated populations. These four populations have been in migration-drift equilibrium maintained by high gene flow. We found the highest rates of contemporary gene flow in populations that are connected by forest corridors. This information is highly relevant to conservation practitioners and policy makers, because deforestation, road widening and mining are imminent threats to these corridors.

Forest corridors maintain historical gene flow in a tiger metapopulation in the highlands of central India

PubMed Central

Sharma, Sandeep; Dutta, Trishna; Maldonado, Jesús E.; Wood, Thomas C.; Panwar, Hemendra Singh; Seidensticker, John

2013-01-01

Understanding the patterns of gene flow of an endangered species metapopulation occupying a fragmented habitat is crucial for landscape-level conservation planning and devising effective conservation strategies. Tigers (Panthera tigris) are globally endangered and their populations are highly fragmented and exist in a few isolated metapopulations across their range. We used multi-locus genotypic data from 273 individual tigers (Panthera tigris tigris) from four tiger populations of the Satpura–Maikal landscape of central India to determine whether the corridors in this landscape are functional. This 45 000 km2 landscape contains 17% of India's tiger population and 12% of its tiger habitat. We applied Bayesian and coalescent-based analyses to estimate contemporary and historical gene flow among these populations and to infer their evolutionary history. We found that the tiger metapopulation in central India has high rates of historical and contemporary gene flow. The tests for population history reveal that tigers populated central India about 10 000 years ago. Their population subdivision began about 1000 years ago and accelerated about 200 years ago owing to habitat fragmentation, leading to four spatially separated populations. These four populations have been in migration–drift equilibrium maintained by high gene flow. We found the highest rates of contemporary gene flow in populations that are connected by forest corridors. This information is highly relevant to conservation practitioners and policy makers, because deforestation, road widening and mining are imminent threats to these corridors. PMID:23902910

Phylogenetic relationships and species delimitation in pinus section trifoliae inferrred from plastid DNA.

PubMed

Hernández-León, Sergio; Gernandt, David S; Pérez de la Rosa, Jorge A; Jardón-Barbolla, Lev

2013-01-01

Recent diversification followed by secondary contact and hybridization may explain complex patterns of intra- and interspecific morphological and genetic variation in the North American hard pines (Pinus section Trifoliae), a group of approximately 49 tree species distributed in North and Central America and the Caribbean islands. We concatenated five plastid DNA markers for an average of 3.9 individuals per putative species and assessed the suitability of the five regions as DNA bar codes for species identification, species delimitation, and phylogenetic reconstruction. The ycf1 gene accounted for the greatest proportion of the alignment (46.9%), the greatest proportion of variable sites (74.9%), and the most unique sequences (75 haplotypes). Phylogenetic analysis recovered clades corresponding to subsections Australes, Contortae, and Ponderosae. Sequences for 23 of the 49 species were monophyletic and sequences for another 9 species were paraphyletic. Morphologically similar species within subsections usually grouped together, but there were exceptions consistent with incomplete lineage sorting or introgression. Bayesian relaxed molecular clock analyses indicated that all three subsections diversified relatively recently during the Miocene. The general mixed Yule-coalescent method gave a mixed model estimate of only 22 or 23 evolutionary entities for the plastid sequences, which corresponds to less than half the 49 species recognized based on morphological species assignments. Including more unique haplotypes per species may result in higher estimates, but low mutation rates, recent diversification, and large effective population sizes may limit the effectiveness of this method to detect evolutionary entities.

Prevalence of cryptic species in morphologically uniform taxa - fast speciation and evolutionary radiation in Asian toads.

PubMed

Liu, Zuyao; Chen, Guoling; Zhu, Tianqi; Zeng, Zhaochi; Lyu, Zhitong; Wang, Jian; Messenger, Kevin; Greenberg, Anthony J; Guo, Zixiao; Yang, Ziheng; Shi, Suhua; Wang, Yingyong

2018-06-16

Diversity and distributions of cryptic species have long been a vexing issue. Identification of species boundaries is made difficult by the lack of obvious morphological differences. Here, we investigate the cryptic diversity and evolutionary history of an underappreciated group of Asian frog species (Megophrys) to explore the pattern and dynamic of amphibian cryptic species. We sequenced four mitochondrial genes and five nuclear genes and delineated species using multiple approaches, combining DNA and mating-call data. A Bayesian species tree was generated to estimate divergence times and to reconstruct ancestral ranges. Macroevolutionary analyses and hybridization tests were conducted to explore the evolutionary dynamics of this cryptic group. Our phylogenies support the current subgenera. We revealed 43 cryptic species, 158% higher than previously thought. The species-delimitation results were further confirmed by mating-call data and morphological divergence. We found that these Asian frogss entered China from the Sunda Shelf 48 Mya, followed by an ancient radiation event during middle Miocene. We confirmed the efficiency of the multispecies coalescent model for delimitation of species with low morphological diversity. Species diversity of Megophrys is severely underappreciated, and species distributions have been misestimated as a result. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A Bayesian approach to meta-analysis of plant pathology studies.

PubMed

Mila, A L; Ngugi, H K

2011-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are used for meta-analysis in many disciplines, including medicine, molecular biology, and engineering, but have not yet been applied for quantitative synthesis of plant pathology studies. In this paper, we illustrate the key concepts of Bayesian statistics and outline the differences between Bayesian and classical (frequentist) methods in the way parameters describing population attributes are considered. We then describe a Bayesian approach to meta-analysis and present a plant pathological example based on studies evaluating the efficacy of plant protection products that induce systemic acquired resistance for the management of fire blight of apple. In a simple random-effects model assuming a normal distribution of effect sizes and no prior information (i.e., a noninformative prior), the results of the Bayesian meta-analysis are similar to those obtained with classical methods. Implementing the same model with a Student's t distribution and a noninformative prior for the effect sizes, instead of a normal distribution, yields similar results for all but acibenzolar-S-methyl (Actigard) which was evaluated only in seven studies in this example. Whereas both the classical (P = 0.28) and the Bayesian analysis with a noninformative prior (95% credibility interval [CRI] for the log response ratio: -0.63 to 0.08) indicate a nonsignificant effect for Actigard, specifying a t distribution resulted in a significant, albeit variable, effect for this product (CRI: -0.73 to -0.10). These results confirm the sensitivity of the analytical outcome (i.e., the posterior distribution) to the choice of prior in Bayesian meta-analyses involving a limited number of studies. We review some pertinent literature on more advanced topics, including modeling of among-study heterogeneity, publication bias, analyses involving a limited number of studies, and methods for dealing with missing data, and show how these issues can be approached in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian meta-analysis can readily include information not easily incorporated in classical methods, and allow for a full evaluation of competing models. Given the power and flexibility of Bayesian methods, we expect them to become widely adopted for meta-analysis of plant pathology studies.

Bayesian methods including nonrandomized study data increased the efficiency of postlaunch RCTs.

PubMed

Schmidt, Amand F; Klugkist, Irene; Klungel, Olaf H; Nielen, Mirjam; de Boer, Anthonius; Hoes, Arno W; Groenwold, Rolf H H

2015-04-01

Findings from nonrandomized studies on safety or efficacy of treatment in patient subgroups may trigger postlaunch randomized clinical trials (RCTs). In the analysis of such RCTs, results from nonrandomized studies are typically ignored. This study explores the trade-off between bias and power of Bayesian RCT analysis incorporating information from nonrandomized studies. A simulation study was conducted to compare frequentist with Bayesian analyses using noninformative and informative priors in their ability to detect interaction effects. In simulated subgroups, the effect of a hypothetical treatment differed between subgroups (odds ratio 1.00 vs. 2.33). Simulations varied in sample size, proportions of the subgroups, and specification of the priors. As expected, the results for the informative Bayesian analyses were more biased than those from the noninformative Bayesian analysis or frequentist analysis. However, because of a reduction in posterior variance, informative Bayesian analyses were generally more powerful to detect an effect. In scenarios where the informative priors were in the opposite direction of the RCT data, type 1 error rates could be 100% and power 0%. Bayesian methods incorporating data from nonrandomized studies can meaningfully increase power of interaction tests in postlaunch RCTs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Coalescent: an open-source and scalable framework for exact calculations in coalescent theory

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Currently, there is no open-source, cross-platform and scalable framework for coalescent analysis in population genetics. There is no scalable GUI based user application either. Such a framework and application would not only drive the creation of more complex and realistic models but also make them truly accessible. Results As a first attempt, we built a framework and user application for the domain of exact calculations in coalescent analysis. The framework provides an API with the concepts of model, data, statistic, phylogeny, gene tree and recursion. Infinite-alleles and infinite-sites models are considered. It defines pluggable computations such as counting and listing all the ancestral configurations and genealogies and computing the exact probability of data. It can visualize a gene tree, trace and visualize the internals of the recursion algorithm for further improvement and attach dynamically a number of output processors. The user application defines jobs in a plug-in like manner so that they can be activated, deactivated, installed or uninstalled on demand. Multiple jobs can be run and their inputs edited. Job inputs are persisted across restarts and running jobs can be cancelled where applicable. Conclusions Coalescent theory plays an increasingly important role in analysing molecular population genetic data. Models involved are mathematically difficult and computationally challenging. An open-source, scalable framework that lets users immediately take advantage of the progress made by others will enable exploration of yet more difficult and realistic models. As models become more complex and mathematically less tractable, the need for an integrated computational approach is obvious. Object oriented designs, though has upfront costs, are practical now and can provide such an integrated approach. PMID:23033878

Analyzing the relationship between sequence divergence and nodal support using Bayesian phylogenetic analyses.

PubMed

Makowsky, Robert; Cox, Christian L; Roelke, Corey; Chippindale, Paul T

2010-11-01

Determining the appropriate gene for phylogeny reconstruction can be a difficult process. Rapidly evolving genes tend to resolve recent relationships, but suffer from alignment issues and increased homoplasy among distantly related species. Conversely, slowly evolving genes generally perform best for deeper relationships, but lack sufficient variation to resolve recent relationships. We determine the relationship between sequence divergence and Bayesian phylogenetic reconstruction ability using both natural and simulated datasets. The natural data are based on 28 well-supported relationships within the subphylum Vertebrata. Sequences of 12 genes were acquired and Bayesian analyses were used to determine phylogenetic support for correct relationships. Simulated datasets were designed to determine whether an optimal range of sequence divergence exists across extreme phylogenetic conditions. Across all genes we found that an optimal range of divergence for resolving the correct relationships does exist, although this level of divergence expectedly depends on the distance metric. Simulated datasets show that an optimal range of sequence divergence exists across diverse topologies and models of evolution. We determine that a simple to measure property of genetic sequences (genetic distance) is related to phylogenic reconstruction ability in Bayesian analyses. This information should be useful for selecting the most informative gene to resolve any relationships, especially those that are difficult to resolve, as well as minimizing both cost and confounding information during project design. Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Colonization and diversification of aquatic insects on three Macaronesian archipelagos using 59 nuclear loci derived from a draft genome.

PubMed

Rutschmann, Sereina; Detering, Harald; Simon, Sabrina; Funk, David H; Gattolliat, Jean-Luc; Hughes, Samantha J; Raposeiro, Pedro M; DeSalle, Rob; Sartori, Michel; Monaghan, Michael T

2017-02-01

The study of processes driving diversification requires a fully sampled and well resolved phylogeny, although a lack of phylogenetic markers remains a limitation for many non-model groups. Multilocus approaches to the study of recent diversification provide a powerful means to study the evolutionary process, but their application remains restricted because multiple unlinked loci with suitable variation for phylogenetic or coalescent analysis are not available for most non-model taxa. Here we identify novel, putative single-copy nuclear DNA (nDNA) phylogenetic markers to study the colonization and diversification of an aquatic insect species complex, Cloeon dipterum L. 1761 (Ephemeroptera: Baetidae), in Macaronesia. Whole-genome sequencing data from one member of the species complex were used to identify 59 nDNA loci (32,213 base pairs), followed by Sanger sequencing of 29 individuals sampled from 13 islands of three Macaronesian archipelagos. Multispecies coalescent analyses established six putative species. Three island species formed a monophyletic clade, with one species occurring on the Azores, Europe and North America. Ancestral state reconstruction indicated at least two colonization events from the mainland (to the Canaries, respectively Azores) and one within the archipelago (between Madeira and the Canaries). Random subsets of the 59 loci showed a positive linear relationship between number of loci and node support. In contrast, node support in the multispecies coalescent tree was negatively correlated with mean number of phylogenetically informative sites per locus, suggesting a complex relationship between tree resolution and marker variability. Our approach highlights the value of combining genomics, coalescent-based phylogeography, species delimitation, and phylogenetic reconstruction to resolve recent diversification events in an archipelago species complex. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of Bayesian techniques for controlling model complexity and selecting inputs in a neural network for short-term load forecasting.

PubMed

Hippert, Henrique S; Taylor, James W

2010-04-01

Artificial neural networks have frequently been proposed for electricity load forecasting because of their capabilities for the nonlinear modelling of large multivariate data sets. Modelling with neural networks is not an easy task though; two of the main challenges are defining the appropriate level of model complexity, and choosing the input variables. This paper evaluates techniques for automatic neural network modelling within a Bayesian framework, as applied to six samples containing daily load and weather data for four different countries. We analyse input selection as carried out by the Bayesian 'automatic relevance determination', and the usefulness of the Bayesian 'evidence' for the selection of the best structure (in terms of number of neurones), as compared to methods based on cross-validation. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population dynamic of the extinct European aurochs: genetic evidence of a north-south differentiation pattern and no evidence of post-glacial expansion.

PubMed

Mona, Stefano; Catalano, Giulio; Lari, Martina; Larson, Greger; Boscato, Paolo; Casoli, Antonella; Sineo, Luca; Di Patti, Carolina; Pecchioli, Elena; Caramelli, David; Bertorelle, Giorgio

2010-03-26

The aurochs (Bos primigenius) was a large bovine that ranged over almost the entirety of the Eurasian continent and North Africa. It is the wild ancestor of the modern cattle (Bos taurus), and went extinct in 1627 probably as a consequence of human hunting and the progressive reduction of its habitat. To investigate in detail the genetic history of this species and to compare the population dynamics in different European areas, we analysed Bos primigenius remains from various sites across Italy. Fourteen samples provided ancient DNA fragments from the mitochondrial hypervariable region. Our data, jointly analysed with previously published sequences, support the view that Italian aurochsen were genetically similar to modern bovine breeds, but very different from northern/central European aurochsen. Bayesian analyses and coalescent simulations indicate that the genetic variation pattern in both Italian and northern/central European aurochsen is compatible with demographic stability after the last glaciation. We provide evidence that signatures of population expansion can erroneously arise in stable aurochsen populations when the different ages of the samples are not taken into account. Distinct groups of aurochsen probably inhabited Italy and northern/central Europe after the last glaciation, respectively. On the contrary, Italian and Fertile Crescent aurochsen likely shared several mtDNA sequences, now common in modern breeds. We argue that a certain level of genetic homogeneity characterized aurochs populations in Southern Europe and the Middle East, and also that post-glacial recolonization of northern and central Europe advanced, without major demographic expansions, from eastern, and not southern, refugia.

Population dynamic of the extinct European aurochs: genetic evidence of a north-south differentiation pattern and no evidence of post-glacial expansion

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The aurochs (Bos primigenius) was a large bovine that ranged over almost the entirety of the Eurasian continent and North Africa. It is the wild ancestor of the modern cattle (Bos taurus), and went extinct in 1627 probably as a consequence of human hunting and the progressive reduction of its habitat. To investigate in detail the genetic history of this species and to compare the population dynamics in different European areas, we analysed Bos primigenius remains from various sites across Italy. Results Fourteen samples provided ancient DNA fragments from the mitochondrial hypervariable region. Our data, jointly analysed with previously published sequences, support the view that Italian aurochsen were genetically similar to modern bovine breeds, but very different from northern/central European aurochsen. Bayesian analyses and coalescent simulations indicate that the genetic variation pattern in both Italian and northern/central European aurochsen is compatible with demographic stability after the last glaciation. We provide evidence that signatures of population expansion can erroneously arise in stable aurochsen populations when the different ages of the samples are not taken into account. Conclusions Distinct groups of aurochsen probably inhabited Italy and northern/central Europe after the last glaciation, respectively. On the contrary, Italian and Fertile Crescent aurochsen likely shared several mtDNA sequences, now common in modern breeds. We argue that a certain level of genetic homogeneity characterized aurochs populations in Southern Europe and the Middle East, and also that post-glacial recolonization of northern and central Europe advanced, without major demographic expansions, from eastern, and not southern, refugia. PMID:20346116

Coalescent Simulation and Paleodistribution Modeling for Tabebuia rosealba Do Not Support South American Dry Forest Refugia Hypothesis

PubMed Central

de Melo, Warita Alves; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S.; Terribile, Levi Carina

2016-01-01

Studies based on contemporary plant occurrences and pollen fossil records have proposed that the current disjunct distribution of seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) across South America is the result of fragmentation of a formerly widespread and continuously distributed dry forest during the arid climatic conditions associated with the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), which is known as the modern-day dry forest refugia hypothesis. We studied the demographic history of Tabebuia rosealba (Bignoniaceae) to understand the disjunct geographic distribution of South American SDTFs based on statistical phylogeography and ecological niche modeling (ENM). We specifically tested the dry forest refugia hypothesis; i.e., if the multiple and isolated patches of SDTFs are current climatic relicts of a widespread and continuously distributed dry forest during the LGM. We sampled 235 individuals across 18 populations in Central Brazil and analyzed the polymorphisms at chloroplast (trnS-trnG, psbA-trnH and ycf6-trnC intergenic spacers) and nuclear (ITS nrDNA) genomes. We performed coalescence simulations of alternative hypotheses under demographic expectations from two a priori biogeographic hypotheses (1. the Pleistocene Arc hypothesis and, 2. a range shift to Amazon Basin) and other two demographic expectances predicted by ENMs (3. expansion throughout the Neotropical South America, including Amazon Basin, and 4. retraction during the LGM). Phylogenetic analyses based on median-joining network showed haplotype sharing among populations with evidence of incomplete lineage sorting. Coalescent analyses showed smaller effective population sizes for T. roseoalba during the LGM compared to the present-day. Simulations and ENM also showed that its current spatial pattern of genetic diversity is most likely due to a scenario of range retraction during the LGM instead of the fragmentation from a once extensive and largely contiguous SDTF across South America, not supporting the South American dry forest refugia hypothesis. PMID:27458982

Coalescent Simulation and Paleodistribution Modeling for Tabebuia rosealba Do Not Support South American Dry Forest Refugia Hypothesis.

PubMed

de Melo, Warita Alves; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S; Terribile, Levi Carina; Collevatti, Rosane G

2016-01-01

Studies based on contemporary plant occurrences and pollen fossil records have proposed that the current disjunct distribution of seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) across South America is the result of fragmentation of a formerly widespread and continuously distributed dry forest during the arid climatic conditions associated with the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), which is known as the modern-day dry forest refugia hypothesis. We studied the demographic history of Tabebuia rosealba (Bignoniaceae) to understand the disjunct geographic distribution of South American SDTFs based on statistical phylogeography and ecological niche modeling (ENM). We specifically tested the dry forest refugia hypothesis; i.e., if the multiple and isolated patches of SDTFs are current climatic relicts of a widespread and continuously distributed dry forest during the LGM. We sampled 235 individuals across 18 populations in Central Brazil and analyzed the polymorphisms at chloroplast (trnS-trnG, psbA-trnH and ycf6-trnC intergenic spacers) and nuclear (ITS nrDNA) genomes. We performed coalescence simulations of alternative hypotheses under demographic expectations from two a priori biogeographic hypotheses (1. the Pleistocene Arc hypothesis and, 2. a range shift to Amazon Basin) and other two demographic expectances predicted by ENMs (3. expansion throughout the Neotropical South America, including Amazon Basin, and 4. retraction during the LGM). Phylogenetic analyses based on median-joining network showed haplotype sharing among populations with evidence of incomplete lineage sorting. Coalescent analyses showed smaller effective population sizes for T. roseoalba during the LGM compared to the present-day. Simulations and ENM also showed that its current spatial pattern of genetic diversity is most likely due to a scenario of range retraction during the LGM instead of the fragmentation from a once extensive and largely contiguous SDTF across South America, not supporting the South American dry forest refugia hypothesis.

The effects of Medieval dams on genetic divergence and demographic history in brown trout populations

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Habitat fragmentation has accelerated within the last century, but may have been ongoing over longer time scales. We analyzed the timing and genetic consequences of fragmentation in two isolated lake-dwelling brown trout populations. They are from the same river system (the Gudenå River, Denmark) and have been isolated from downstream anadromous trout by dams established ca. 600–800 years ago. For reference, we included ten other anadromous populations and two hatchery strains. Based on analysis of 44 microsatellite loci we investigated if the lake populations have been naturally genetically differentiated from anadromous trout for thousands of years, or have diverged recently due to the establishment of dams. Results Divergence time estimates were based on 1) Approximate Bayesian Computation and 2) a coalescent-based isolation-with-gene-flow model. Both methods suggested divergence times ca. 600–800 years bp, providing strong evidence for establishment of dams in the Medieval as the factor causing divergence. Bayesian cluster analysis showed influence of stocked trout in several reference populations, but not in the focal lake and anadromous populations. Estimates of effective population size using a linkage disequilibrium method ranged from 244 to > 1,000 in all but one anadromous population, but were lower (153 and 252) in the lake populations. Conclusions We show that genetic divergence of lake-dwelling trout in two Danish lakes reflects establishment of water mills and impassable dams ca. 600–800 years ago rather than a natural genetic population structure. Although effective population sizes of the two lake populations are not critically low they may ultimately limit response to selection and thereby future adaptation. Our results demonstrate that populations may have been affected by anthropogenic disturbance over longer time scales than normally assumed. PMID:24903056

The effects of Medieval dams on genetic divergence and demographic history in brown trout populations.

PubMed

Hansen, Michael M; Limborg, Morten T; Ferchaud, Anne-Laure; Pujolar, José-Martin

2014-06-05

Habitat fragmentation has accelerated within the last century, but may have been ongoing over longer time scales. We analyzed the timing and genetic consequences of fragmentation in two isolated lake-dwelling brown trout populations. They are from the same river system (the Gudenå River, Denmark) and have been isolated from downstream anadromous trout by dams established ca. 600-800 years ago. For reference, we included ten other anadromous populations and two hatchery strains. Based on analysis of 44 microsatellite loci we investigated if the lake populations have been naturally genetically differentiated from anadromous trout for thousands of years, or have diverged recently due to the establishment of dams. Divergence time estimates were based on 1) Approximate Bayesian Computation and 2) a coalescent-based isolation-with-gene-flow model. Both methods suggested divergence times ca. 600-800 years bp, providing strong evidence for establishment of dams in the Medieval as the factor causing divergence. Bayesian cluster analysis showed influence of stocked trout in several reference populations, but not in the focal lake and anadromous populations. Estimates of effective population size using a linkage disequilibrium method ranged from 244 to > 1,000 in all but one anadromous population, but were lower (153 and 252) in the lake populations. We show that genetic divergence of lake-dwelling trout in two Danish lakes reflects establishment of water mills and impassable dams ca. 600-800 years ago rather than a natural genetic population structure. Although effective population sizes of the two lake populations are not critically low they may ultimately limit response to selection and thereby future adaptation. Our results demonstrate that populations may have been affected by anthropogenic disturbance over longer time scales than normally assumed.

Estimating trace-suspect match probabilities for singleton Y-STR haplotypes using coalescent theory.

PubMed

Andersen, Mikkel Meyer; Caliebe, Amke; Jochens, Arne; Willuweit, Sascha; Krawczak, Michael

2013-02-01

Estimation of match probabilities for singleton haplotypes of lineage markers, i.e. for haplotypes observed only once in a reference database augmented by a suspect profile, is an important problem in forensic genetics. We compared the performance of four estimators of singleton match probabilities for Y-STRs, namely the count estimate, both with and without Brenner's so-called 'kappa correction', the surveying estimate, and a previously proposed, but rarely used, coalescent-based approach implemented in the BATWING software. Extensive simulation with BATWING of the underlying population history, haplotype evolution and subsequent database sampling revealed that the coalescent-based approach is characterized by lower bias and lower mean squared error than the uncorrected count estimator and the surveying estimator. Moreover, in contrast to the two count estimators, both the surveying and the coalescent-based approach exhibited a good correlation between the estimated and true match probabilities. However, although its overall performance is thus better than that of any other recognized method, the coalescent-based estimator is still computation-intense on the verge of general impracticability. Its application in forensic practice therefore will have to be limited to small reference databases, or to isolated cases of particular interest, until more powerful algorithms for coalescent simulation have become available. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reconstructing Past Admixture Processes from Local Genomic Ancestry Using Wavelet Transformation

PubMed Central

Sanderson, Jean; Sudoyo, Herawati; Karafet, Tatiana M.; Hammer, Michael F.; Cox, Murray P.

2015-01-01

Admixture between long-separated populations is a defining feature of the genomes of many species. The mosaic block structure of admixed genomes can provide information about past contact events, including the time and extent of admixture. Here, we describe an improved wavelet-based technique that better characterizes ancestry block structure from observed genomic patterns. principal components analysis is first applied to genomic data to identify the primary population structure, followed by wavelet decomposition to develop a new characterization of local ancestry information along the chromosomes. For testing purposes, this method is applied to human genome-wide genotype data from Indonesia, as well as virtual genetic data generated using genome-scale sequential coalescent simulations under a wide range of admixture scenarios. Time of admixture is inferred using an approximate Bayesian computation framework, providing robust estimates of both admixture times and their associated levels of uncertainty. Crucially, we demonstrate that this revised wavelet approach, which we have released as the R package adwave, provides improved statistical power over existing wavelet-based techniques and can be used to address a broad range of admixture questions. PMID:25852078

Phylogeographic analysis of the true lemurs (genus Eulemur) underlines the role of river catchments for the evolution of micro-endemism in Madagascar.

PubMed

Markolf, Matthias; Kappeler, Peter M

2013-11-14

Due to its remarkable species diversity and micro-endemism, Madagascar has recently been suggested to serve as a biogeographic model region. However, hypothesis-based tests of various diversification mechanisms that have been proposed for the evolution of the island's micro-endemic lineages are still limited. Here, we test the fit of several diversification hypotheses with new data on the broadly distributed genus Eulemur using coalescent-based phylogeographic analyses. Time-calibrated species tree analyses and population genetic clustering resolved the previously polytomic species relationships among eulemurs. The most recent common ancestor of eulemurs was estimated to have lived about 4.45 million years ago (mya). Divergence date estimates furthermore suggested a very recent diversification among the members of the "brown lemur complex", i.e. former subspecies of E. fulvus, during the Pleistocene (0.33-1.43 mya). Phylogeographic model comparisons of past migration rates showed significant levels of gene flow between lineages of neighboring river catchments as well as between eastern and western populations of the redfronted lemur (E. rufifrons). Together, our results are concordant with the centers of endemism hypothesis (Wilmé et al. 2006, Science 312:1063-1065), highlight the importance of river catchments for the evolution of Madagascar's micro-endemic biota, and they underline the usefulness of testing diversification mechanisms using coalescent-based phylogeographic methods.

Bayesian Retrieval of Complete Posterior PDFs of Oceanic Rain Rate From Microwave Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chiu, J. Christine; Petty, Grant W.

2005-01-01

This paper presents a new Bayesian algorithm for retrieving surface rain rate from Tropical Rainfall Measurements Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) over the ocean, along with validations against estimates from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). The Bayesian approach offers a rigorous basis for optimally combining multichannel observations with prior knowledge. While other rain rate algorithms have been published that are based at least partly on Bayesian reasoning, this is believed to be the first self-contained algorithm that fully exploits Bayes Theorem to yield not just a single rain rate, but rather a continuous posterior probability distribution of rain rate. To advance our understanding of theoretical benefits of the Bayesian approach, we have conducted sensitivity analyses based on two synthetic datasets for which the true conditional and prior distribution are known. Results demonstrate that even when the prior and conditional likelihoods are specified perfectly, biased retrievals may occur at high rain rates. This bias is not the result of a defect of the Bayesian formalism but rather represents the expected outcome when the physical constraint imposed by the radiometric observations is weak, due to saturation effects. It is also suggested that the choice of the estimators and the prior information are both crucial to the retrieval. In addition, the performance of our Bayesian algorithm is found to be comparable to that of other benchmark algorithms in real-world applications, while having the additional advantage of providing a complete continuous posterior probability distribution of surface rain rate.

Phylogeny of sipunculan worms: A combined analysis of four gene regions and morphology.

PubMed

Schulze, Anja; Cutler, Edward B; Giribet, Gonzalo

2007-01-01

The intra-phyletic relationships of sipunculan worms were analyzed based on DNA sequence data from four gene regions and 58 morphological characters. Initially we analyzed the data under direct optimization using parsimony as optimality criterion. An implied alignment resulting from the direct optimization analysis was subsequently utilized to perform a Bayesian analysis with mixed models for the different data partitions. For this we applied a doublet model for the stem regions of the 18S rRNA. Both analyses support monophyly of Sipuncula and most of the same clades within the phylum. The analyses differ with respect to the relationships among the major groups but whereas the deep nodes in the direct optimization analysis generally show low jackknife support, they are supported by 100% posterior probability in the Bayesian analysis. Direct optimization has been useful for handling sequences of unequal length and generating conservative phylogenetic hypotheses whereas the Bayesian analysis under mixed models provided high resolution in the basal nodes of the tree.

Solving the relativistic inverse stellar problem through gravitational waves observation of binary neutron stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdelsalhin, Tiziano; Maselli, Andrea; Ferrari, Valeria

2018-04-01

The LIGO/Virgo Collaboration has recently announced the direct detection of gravitational waves emitted in the coalescence of a neutron star binary. This discovery allows, for the first time, to set new constraints on the behavior of matter at supranuclear density, complementary with those coming from astrophysical observations in the electromagnetic band. In this paper we demonstrate the feasibility of using gravitational signals to solve the relativistic inverse stellar problem, i.e., to reconstruct the parameters of the equation of state (EoS) from measurements of the stellar mass and tidal Love number. We perform Bayesian inference of mock data, based on different models of the star internal composition, modeled through piecewise polytropes. Our analysis shows that the detection of a small number of sources by a network of advanced interferometers would allow to put accurate bounds on the EoS parameters, and to perform a model selection among the realistic equations of state proposed in the literature.

Demographic history and gene flow during silkworm domestication

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Gene flow plays an important role in domestication history of domesticated species. However, little is known about the demographic history of domesticated silkworm involving gene flow with its wild relative. Results In this study, four model-based evolutionary scenarios to describe the demographic history of B. mori were hypothesized. Using Approximate Bayesian Computation method and DNA sequence data from 29 nuclear loci, we found that the gene flow at bottleneck model is the most likely scenario for silkworm domestication. The starting time of silkworm domestication was estimated to be approximate 7,500 years ago; the time of domestication termination was 3,984 years ago. Using coalescent simulation analysis, we also found that bi-directional gene flow occurred during silkworm domestication. Conclusions Estimates of silkworm domestication time are nearly consistent with the archeological evidence and our previous results. Importantly, we found that the bi-directional gene flow might occur during silkworm domestication. Our findings add a dimension to highlight the important role of gene flow in domestication of crops and animals. PMID:25123546

Innovative Bayesian and Parsimony Phylogeny of Dung Beetles (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae, Scarabaeinae) Enhanced by Ontology-Based Partitioning of Morphological Characters

PubMed Central

Tarasov, Sergei; Génier, François

2015-01-01

Scarabaeine dung beetles are the dominant dung feeding group of insects and are widely used as model organisms in conservation, ecology and developmental biology. Due to the conflicts among 13 recently published phylogenies dealing with the higher-level relationships of dung beetles, the phylogeny of this lineage remains largely unresolved. In this study, we conduct rigorous phylogenetic analyses of dung beetles, based on an unprecedented taxon sample (110 taxa) and detailed investigation of morphology (205 characters). We provide the description of morphology and thoroughly illustrate the used characters. Along with parsimony, traditionally used in the analysis of morphological data, we also apply the Bayesian method with a novel approach that uses anatomy ontology for matrix partitioning. This approach allows for heterogeneity in evolutionary rates among characters from different anatomical regions. Anatomy ontology generates a number of parameter-partition schemes which we compare using Bayes factor. We also test the effect of inclusion of autapomorphies in the morphological analysis, which hitherto has not been examined. Generally, schemes with more parameters were favored in the Bayesian comparison suggesting that characters located on different body regions evolve at different rates and that partitioning of the data matrix using anatomy ontology is reasonable; however, trees from the parsimony and all the Bayesian analyses were quite consistent. The hypothesized phylogeny reveals many novel clades and provides additional support for some clades recovered in previous analyses. Our results provide a solid basis for a new classification of dung beetles, in which the taxonomic limits of the tribes Dichotomiini, Deltochilini and Coprini are restricted and many new tribes must be described. Based on the consistency of the phylogeny with biogeography, we speculate that dung beetles may have originated in the Mesozoic contrary to the traditional view pointing to a Cenozoic origin. PMID:25781019

Analysis of Skylab IV fluid mechanic science demonstration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klett, M. G.; Bourgeois, S. V.

1975-01-01

Several science demonstrations performed on Skylab III and IV were concerned with the behavior of fluid drops free floating in microgravity. These demonstrations, with large liquid drops, included the oscillation, rotation, impact and coalescence, and air injection into the drops. Rayleigh's analysis of the oscillation of spherical drops of a liquid predicts accurately the effect of size and surface tension on the frequency of vibrated water globules in the Skylab demonstration. However, damping occurred much faster than predicted by Lamb's or Scriven's analyses of the damping time for spherical drops. The impact demonstrations indicated that a minimum velocity is necessary to overcome surface forces and effect a coalescence, but a precise criterion for the coalescence of liquids in low g could not be determined.

Posterior Predictive Bayesian Phylogenetic Model Selection

PubMed Central

Lewis, Paul O.; Xie, Wangang; Chen, Ming-Hui; Fan, Yu; Kuo, Lynn

2014-01-01

We present two distinctly different posterior predictive approaches to Bayesian phylogenetic model selection and illustrate these methods using examples from green algal protein-coding cpDNA sequences and flowering plant rDNA sequences. The Gelfand–Ghosh (GG) approach allows dissection of an overall measure of model fit into components due to posterior predictive variance (GGp) and goodness-of-fit (GGg), which distinguishes this method from the posterior predictive P-value approach. The conditional predictive ordinate (CPO) method provides a site-specific measure of model fit useful for exploratory analyses and can be combined over sites yielding the log pseudomarginal likelihood (LPML) which is useful as an overall measure of model fit. CPO provides a useful cross-validation approach that is computationally efficient, requiring only a sample from the posterior distribution (no additional simulation is required). Both GG and CPO add new perspectives to Bayesian phylogenetic model selection based on the predictive abilities of models and complement the perspective provided by the marginal likelihood (including Bayes Factor comparisons) based solely on the fit of competing models to observed data. [Bayesian; conditional predictive ordinate; CPO; L-measure; LPML; model selection; phylogenetics; posterior predictive.] PMID:24193892

Phase segregation due to simultaneous migration and coalescence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Robert H.

1994-01-01

The primary objective of the research is to perform ground-based analysis and experiments on the interaction and coalescence of drops (or bubbles) leading to macroscopic phase separation. Migration of the drops occurs as a result of the individual and collective action of gravity and thermocapillary effects. Larger drops migrate faster than smaller ones, leading to the possibility of collisions and coalescence. Coalescence increases the rate of macroscopic phase separation, since the result is larger drops with higher migration rates. It is hoped that the understanding gained will lead to the design of microgravity experiments to further elucidate the mechanisms governing coalescence and phase separation.

Evolution of the human immunodeficiency virus envelope gene is dominated by purifying selection.

PubMed

Edwards, C T T; Holmes, E C; Pybus, O G; Wilson, D J; Viscidi, R P; Abrams, E J; Phillips, R E; Drummond, A J

2006-11-01

The evolution of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1) during chronic infection involves the rapid, continuous turnover of genetic diversity. However, the role of natural selection, relative to random genetic drift, in governing this process is unclear. We tested a stochastic model of genetic drift using partial envelope sequences sampled longitudinally in 28 infected children. In each case the Bayesian posterior (empirical) distribution of coalescent genealogies was estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Posterior predictive simulation was then used to generate a null distribution of genealogies assuming neutrality, with the null and empirical distributions compared using four genealogy-based summary statistics sensitive to nonneutral evolution. Because both null and empirical distributions were generated within a coalescent framework, we were able to explicitly account for the confounding influence of demography. From the distribution of corrected P-values across patients, we conclude that empirical genealogies are more asymmetric than expected if evolution is driven by mutation and genetic drift only, with an excess of low-frequency polymorphisms in the population. This indicates that although drift may still play an important role, natural selection has a strong influence on the evolution of HIV-1 envelope. A negative relationship between effective population size and substitution rate indicates that as the efficacy of selection increases, a smaller proportion of mutations approach fixation in the population. This suggests the presence of deleterious mutations. We therefore conclude that intrahost HIV-1 evolution in envelope is dominated by purifying selection against low-frequency deleterious mutations that do not reach fixation.

An analysis of shock coalescence including three-dimensional effects with application to sonic boom extrapolation. Ph.D. Thesis - George Washington Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Darden, C. M.

1984-01-01

A method for analyzing shock coalescence which includes three dimensional effects was developed. The method is based on an extension of the axisymmetric solution, with asymmetric effects introduced through an additional set of governing equations, derived by taking the second circumferential derivative of the standard shock equations in the plane of symmetry. The coalescence method is consistent with and has been combined with a nonlinear sonic boom extrapolation program which is based on the method of characteristics. The extrapolation program, is able to extrapolate pressure signatures which include embedded shocks from an initial data line in the plane of symmetry at approximately one body length from the axis of the aircraft to the ground. The axisymmetric shock coalescence solution, the asymmetric shock coalescence solution, the method of incorporating these solutions into the extrapolation program, and the methods used to determine spatial derivatives needed in the coalescence solution are described. Results of the method are shown for a body of revolution at a small, positive angle of attack.

Bayesian decoding using unsorted spikes in the rat hippocampus

PubMed Central

Layton, Stuart P.; Chen, Zhe; Wilson, Matthew A.

2013-01-01

A fundamental task in neuroscience is to understand how neural ensembles represent information. Population decoding is a useful tool to extract information from neuronal populations based on the ensemble spiking activity. We propose a novel Bayesian decoding paradigm to decode unsorted spikes in the rat hippocampus. Our approach uses a direct mapping between spike waveform features and covariates of interest and avoids accumulation of spike sorting errors. Our decoding paradigm is nonparametric, encoding model-free for representing stimuli, and extracts information from all available spikes and their waveform features. We apply the proposed Bayesian decoding algorithm to a position reconstruction task for freely behaving rats based on tetrode recordings of rat hippocampal neuronal activity. Our detailed decoding analyses demonstrate that our approach is efficient and better utilizes the available information in the nonsortable hash than the standard sorting-based decoding algorithm. Our approach can be adapted to an online encoding/decoding framework for applications that require real-time decoding, such as brain-machine interfaces. PMID:24089403

Origin and Evolution of the Unique Hepatitis C Virus Circulating Recombinant Form 2k/1b

PubMed Central

Thomas, Xiomara V.; Koekkoek, Sylvie M.; Schinkel, Janke; Molenkamp, Richard; van de Laar, Thijs J.; Takebe, Yutaka; Tanaka, Yasuhito; Mizokami, Masashi; Rambaut, Andrew

2012-01-01

Since its initial identification in St. Petersburg, Russia, the recombinant hepatitis C virus (HCV) 2k/1b has been isolated from several countries throughout Eurasia. The 2k/1b strain is the only recombinant HCV to have spread widely, raising questions about the epidemiological background in which it first appeared. In order to further understand the circumstances by which HCV recombinants might be formed and spread, we estimated the date of the recombination event that generated the 2k/1b strain using a Bayesian phylogenetic approach. Our study incorporates newly isolated 2k/1b strains from Amsterdam, The Netherlands, and has employed a hierarchical Bayesian framework to combine information from different genomic regions. We estimate that 2k/1b originated sometime between 1923 and 1956, substantially before the first detection of the strain in 1999. The timescale and the geographic spread of 2k/1b suggest that it originated in the former Soviet Union at about the time that the world's first centralized national blood transfusion and storage service was being established. We also reconstructed the epidemic history of 2k/1b using coalescent theory-based methods, matching patterns previously reported for other epidemic HCV subtypes. This study demonstrates the practicality of jointly estimating dates of recombination from flanking regions of the breakpoint and further illustrates that rare genetic-exchange events can be particularly informative about the underlying epidemiological processes. PMID:22114341

Bayesian Population Genomic Inference of Crossing Over and Gene Conversion

PubMed Central

Padhukasahasram, Badri; Rannala, Bruce

2011-01-01

Meiotic recombination is a fundamental cellular mechanism in sexually reproducing organisms and its different forms, crossing over and gene conversion both play an important role in shaping genetic variation in populations. Here, we describe a coalescent-based full-likelihood Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for jointly estimating the crossing-over, gene-conversion, and mean tract length parameters from population genomic data under a Bayesian framework. Although computationally more expensive than methods that use approximate likelihoods, the relative efficiency of our method is expected to be optimal in theory. Furthermore, it is also possible to obtain a posterior sample of genealogies for the data using this method. We first check the performance of the new method on simulated data and verify its correctness. We also extend the method for inference under models with variable gene-conversion and crossing-over rates and demonstrate its ability to identify recombination hotspots. Then, we apply the method to two empirical data sets that were sequenced in the telomeric regions of the X chromosome of Drosophila melanogaster. Our results indicate that gene conversion occurs more frequently than crossing over in the su-w and su-s gene sequences while the local rates of crossing over as inferred by our program are not low. The mean tract lengths for gene-conversion events are estimated to be ∼70 bp and 430 bp, respectively, for these data sets. Finally, we discuss ideas and optimizations for reducing the execution time of our algorithm. PMID:21840857

Bouncing and coalescence of droplets on falling liquid films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Che, Zhizhao; Deygas, Amandine; Matar, Omar

2014-11-01

When a droplet impacts on a falling liquid film, the outcome depends on the fluid properties of the droplet, its speed, and angle of incidence, as well as on the film flow rate and associated flow regimes. In this study, the oblique impact of droplets on a falling liquid film is investigated experimentally. The falling film is created on an inclined substrate and the Reynolds number is varied. Droplets with different sizes and different speeds are used to study the impact process for different Weber and Ohnesorge numbers. Different phenomena of droplet impact are identified and analysed, such as bouncing, partial coalescence, total coalescence, and splashing. An impact regime map is generated, and the effects of droplet impact speed and size, and the film flow rates are studied. The propagation of waves on the liquid film post-impact is analysed. The results show that the flowing film can significantly affect the impact process of droplets, and the latter can alter the propagation of waves on the falling film. EPSRC Programme Grant, MEMPHIS, EP/K0039761/1.

Historical and current introgression in a Mesoamerican hummingbird species complex: a biogeographic perspective

PubMed Central

Jiménez, Rosa Alicia

2016-01-01

The influence of geologic and Pleistocene glacial cycles might result in morphological and genetic complex scenarios in the biota of the Mesoamerican region. We tested whether berylline, blue-tailed and steely-blue hummingbirds, Amazilia beryllina, Amazilia cyanura and Amazilia saucerottei, show evidence of historical or current introgression as their plumage colour variation might suggest. We also analysed the role of past and present climatic events in promoting genetic introgression and species diversification. We collected mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence data and microsatellite loci scores for populations throughout the range of the three Amazilia species, as well as morphological and ecological data. Haplotype network, Bayesian phylogenetic and divergence time inference, historical demography, palaeodistribution modelling, and niche divergence tests were used to reconstruct the evolutionary history of this Amazilia species complex. An isolation-with-migration coalescent model and Bayesian assignment analysis were assessed to determine historical introgression and current genetic admixture. mtDNA haplotypes were geographically unstructured, with haplotypes from disparate areas interdispersed on a shallow tree and an unresolved haplotype network. Assignment analysis of the nuclear genome (nuDNA) supported three genetic groups with signs of genetic admixture, corresponding to: (1) A. beryllina populations located west of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec; (2) A. cyanura populations between the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and the Nicaraguan Depression (Nuclear Central America); and (3) A. saucerottei populations southeast of the Nicaraguan Depression. Gene flow and divergence time estimates, and demographic and palaeodistribution patterns suggest an evolutionary history of introgression mediated by Quaternary climatic fluctuations. High levels of gene flow were indicated by mtDNA and asymmetrical isolation-with-migration, whereas the microsatellite analyses found evidence for three genetic clusters with distributions corresponding to isolation by the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and the Nicaraguan Depression and signs of admixture. Historical levels of migration between genetically distinct groups estimated using microsatellites were higher than contemporary levels of migration. These results support the scenario of secondary contact and range contact during the glacial periods of the Pleistocene and strongly imply that the high levels of structure currently observed are a consequence of the limited dispersal of these hummingbirds across the isthmus and depression barriers. PMID:26788433

Delimiting Coalescence Genes (C-Genes) in Phylogenomic Data Sets.

PubMed

Springer, Mark S; Gatesy, John

2018-02-26

coalescence methods have emerged as a popular alternative for inferring species trees with large genomic datasets, because these methods explicitly account for incomplete lineage sorting. However, statistical consistency of summary coalescence methods is not guaranteed unless several model assumptions are true, including the critical assumption that recombination occurs freely among but not within coalescence genes (c-genes), which are the fundamental units of analysis for these methods. Each c-gene has a single branching history, and large sets of these independent gene histories should be the input for genome-scale coalescence estimates of phylogeny. By contrast, numerous studies have reported the results of coalescence analyses in which complete protein-coding sequences are treated as c-genes even though exons for these loci can span more than a megabase of DNA. Empirical estimates of recombination breakpoints suggest that c-genes may be much shorter, especially when large clades with many species are the focus of analysis. Although this idea has been challenged recently in the literature, the inverse relationship between c-gene size and increased taxon sampling in a dataset-the 'recombination ratchet'-is a fundamental property of c-genes. For taxonomic groups characterized by genes with long intron sequences, complete protein-coding sequences are likely not valid c-genes and are inappropriate units of analysis for summary coalescence methods unless they occur in recombination deserts that are devoid of incomplete lineage sorting (ILS). Finally, it has been argued that coalescence methods are robust when the no-recombination within loci assumption is violated, but recombination must matter at some scale because ILS, a by-product of recombination, is the raison d'etre for coalescence methods. That is, extensive recombination is required to yield the large number of independently segregating c-genes used to infer a species tree. If coalescent methods are powerful enough to infer the correct species tree for difficult phylogenetic problems in the anomaly zone, where concatenation is expected to fail because of ILS, then there should be a decreasing probability of inferring the correct species tree using longer loci with many intralocus recombination breakpoints (i.e., increased levels of concatenation).

Delimiting Coalescence Genes (C-Genes) in Phylogenomic Data Sets

PubMed Central

Springer, Mark S.; Gatesy, John

2018-01-01

Summary coalescence methods have emerged as a popular alternative for inferring species trees with large genomic datasets, because these methods explicitly account for incomplete lineage sorting. However, statistical consistency of summary coalescence methods is not guaranteed unless several model assumptions are true, including the critical assumption that recombination occurs freely among but not within coalescence genes (c-genes), which are the fundamental units of analysis for these methods. Each c-gene has a single branching history, and large sets of these independent gene histories should be the input for genome-scale coalescence estimates of phylogeny. By contrast, numerous studies have reported the results of coalescence analyses in which complete protein-coding sequences are treated as c-genes even though exons for these loci can span more than a megabase of DNA. Empirical estimates of recombination breakpoints suggest that c-genes may be much shorter, especially when large clades with many species are the focus of analysis. Although this idea has been challenged recently in the literature, the inverse relationship between c-gene size and increased taxon sampling in a dataset—the ‘recombination ratchet’—is a fundamental property of c-genes. For taxonomic groups characterized by genes with long intron sequences, complete protein-coding sequences are likely not valid c-genes and are inappropriate units of analysis for summary coalescence methods unless they occur in recombination deserts that are devoid of incomplete lineage sorting (ILS). Finally, it has been argued that coalescence methods are robust when the no-recombination within loci assumption is violated, but recombination must matter at some scale because ILS, a by-product of recombination, is the raison d’etre for coalescence methods. That is, extensive recombination is required to yield the large number of independently segregating c-genes used to infer a species tree. If coalescent methods are powerful enough to infer the correct species tree for difficult phylogenetic problems in the anomaly zone, where concatenation is expected to fail because of ILS, then there should be a decreasing probability of inferring the correct species tree using longer loci with many intralocus recombination breakpoints (i.e., increased levels of concatenation). PMID:29495400

Diversification in the South American Pampas: the genetic and morphological variation of the widespread Petunia axillaris complex (Solanaceae).

PubMed

Turchetto, Caroline; Fagundes, Nelson J R; Segatto, Ana L A; Kuhlemeier, Cris; Solís Neffa, Viviana G; Speranza, Pablo R; Bonatto, Sandro L; Freitas, Loreta B

2014-02-01

Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of genetic variation and the ways in which this distribution is connected to the ecological context of natural populations is fundamental for understanding the nature and mode of intraspecific and, ultimately, interspecific differentiation. The Petunia axillaris complex is endemic to the grasslands of southern South America and includes three subspecies: P. a. axillaris, P. a. parodii and P. a. subandina. These subspecies are traditionally delimited based on both geography and floral morphology, although the latter is highly variable. Here, we determined the patterns of genetic (nuclear and cpDNA), morphological and ecological (bioclimatic) variation of a large number of P. axillaris populations and found that they are mostly coincident with subspecies delimitation. The nuclear data suggest that the subspecies are likely independent evolutionary units, and their morphological differences may be associated with local adaptations to diverse climatic and/or edaphic conditions and population isolation. The demographic dynamics over time estimated by skyline plot analyses showed different patterns for each subspecies in the last 100 000 years, which is compatible with a divergence time between 35 000 and 107 000 years ago between P. a. axillaris and P. a. parodii, as estimated with the IMa program. Coalescent simulation tests using Approximate Bayesian Computation do not support previous suggestions of extensive gene flow between P. a. axillaris and P. a. parodii in their contact zone. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reconstructing population histories from single nucleotide polymorphism data.

PubMed

Sirén, Jukka; Marttinen, Pekka; Corander, Jukka

2011-01-01

Population genetics encompasses a strong theoretical and applied research tradition on the multiple demographic processes that shape genetic variation present within a species. When several distinct populations exist in the current generation, it is often natural to consider the pattern of their divergence from a single ancestral population in terms of a binary tree structure. Inference about such population histories based on molecular data has been an intensive research topic in the recent years. The most common approach uses coalescent theory to model genealogies of individuals sampled from the current populations. Such methods are able to compare several different evolutionary scenarios and to estimate demographic parameters. However, their major limitation is the enormous computational complexity associated with the indirect modeling of the demographies, which limits the application to small data sets. Here, we propose a novel Bayesian method for inferring population histories from unlinked single nucleotide polymorphisms, which is applicable also to data sets harboring large numbers of individuals from distinct populations. We use an approximation to the neutral Wright-Fisher diffusion to model random fluctuations in allele frequencies. The population histories are modeled as binary rooted trees that represent the historical order of divergence of the different populations. A combination of analytical, numerical, and Monte Carlo integration techniques are utilized for the inferences. A particularly important feature of our approach is that it provides intuitive measures of statistical uncertainty related with the estimates computed, which may be entirely lacking for the alternative methods in this context. The potential of our approach is illustrated by analyses of both simulated and real data sets.

Montane and coastal species diversification in the economically important Mexican grasshopper genus Sphenarium (Orthoptera: Pyrgomorphidae).

PubMed

Pedraza-Lara, Carlos; Barrientos-Lozano, Ludivina; Rocha-Sánchez, Aurora Y; Zaldívar-Riverón, Alejandro

2015-03-01

The genus Sphenarium (Pyrgomorphidae) is a small group of grasshoppers endemic to México and Guatemala that are economically and culturally important both as a food source and as agricultural pests. However, its taxonomy has been largely neglected mainly due to its conserved interspecific external morphology and the considerable intraspecific variation in colour pattern of some taxa. Here we examined morphological as well as mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence data to assess the species boundaries and evolutionary history in Sphenarium. Our morphological identification and DNA sequence-based species delimitation, carried out with three different approaches (DNA barcoding, general mixed Yule-coalescent model, Bayesian species delimitation), all recovered a higher number of putative species of Sphenarium than previously recognised. We unambiguously delimit seven species, and between five and ten additional species depending on the data/method analysed. Phylogenetic relationships within the genus strongly support two main clades, one exclusively montane, the other coastal. Divergence time estimates suggest late Miocene to Pliocene ages for the origin and most of the early diversification events in the genus, which were probably influenced by the formation of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. A series of Pleistocene events could have led to the current species diversification in both montane and coastal regions. This study not only reveals an overlooked species richness for the most popular edible insect in Mexico, but also highlights the influence of the dynamic geological and climatic history of the region in shaping its current diversity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Insights into the phylogeny of Northern Hemisphere Armillaria: Neighbor-net and Bayesian analyses of translation elongation factor 1-α gene sequences

Treesearch

Ned B. Klopfenstein; Jane E. Stewart; Yuko Ota; John W. Hanna; Bryce A. Richardson; Amy L. Ross-Davis; Ruben D. Elias-Roman; Kari Korhonen; Nenad Keca; Eugenia Iturritxa; Dionicio Alvarado-Rosales; Halvor Solheim; Nicholas J. Brazee; Piotr Lakomy; Michelle R. Cleary; Eri Hasegawa; Taisei Kikuchi; Fortunato Garza-Ocanas; Panaghiotis Tsopelas; Daniel Rigling; Simone Prospero; Tetyana Tsykun; Jean A. Berube; Franck O. P. Stefani; Saeideh Jafarpour; Vladimir Antonin; Michal Tomsovsky; Geral I. McDonald; Stephen Woodward; Mee-Sook Kim

2017-01-01

Armillaria possesses several intriguing characteristics that have inspired wide interest in understanding phylogenetic relationships within and among species of this genus. Nuclear ribosomal DNA sequence–based analyses of Armillaria provide only limited information for phylogenetic studies among widely divergent taxa. More recent studies have shown that translation...

Coalescent Modelling Suggests Recent Secondary-Contact of Cryptic Penguin Species

PubMed Central

Grosser, Stefanie; Burridge, Christopher P.; Peucker, Amanda J.; Waters, Jonathan M.

2015-01-01

Molecular genetic analyses present powerful tools for elucidating demographic and biogeographic histories of taxa. Here we present genetic evidence showing a dynamic history for two cryptic lineages within Eudyptula, the world's smallest penguin. Specifically, we use a suite of genetic markers to reveal that two congeneric taxa ('Australia' and 'New Zealand') co-occur in southern New Zealand, with only low levels of hybridization. Coalescent modelling suggests that the Australian little penguin only recently expanded into southern New Zealand. Analyses conducted under time-dependent molecular evolutionary rates lend support to the hypothesis of recent anthropogenic turnover, consistent with shifts detected in several other New Zealand coastal vertebrate taxa. This apparent turnover event highlights the dynamic nature of the region’s coastal ecosystem. PMID:26675310

Coalescent Modelling Suggests Recent Secondary-Contact of Cryptic Penguin Species.

PubMed

Grosser, Stefanie; Burridge, Christopher P; Peucker, Amanda J; Waters, Jonathan M

2015-01-01

Molecular genetic analyses present powerful tools for elucidating demographic and biogeographic histories of taxa. Here we present genetic evidence showing a dynamic history for two cryptic lineages within Eudyptula, the world's smallest penguin. Specifically, we use a suite of genetic markers to reveal that two congeneric taxa ('Australia' and 'New Zealand') co-occur in southern New Zealand, with only low levels of hybridization. Coalescent modelling suggests that the Australian little penguin only recently expanded into southern New Zealand. Analyses conducted under time-dependent molecular evolutionary rates lend support to the hypothesis of recent anthropogenic turnover, consistent with shifts detected in several other New Zealand coastal vertebrate taxa. This apparent turnover event highlights the dynamic nature of the region's coastal ecosystem.

Lineage diversification of fringe-toed lizards (Phrynosomatidae: Uma notata complex) in the Colorado Desert: Delimiting species in the presence of gene flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gottscho, Andrew D.; Wood, Dustin A.; Vandergast, Amy; Lemos Espinal, Julio A.; Gatesy, John; Reeder, Tod

2017-01-01

Multi-locus nuclear DNA data were used to delimit species of fringe-toed lizards of theUma notata complex, which are specialized for living in wind-blown sand habitats in the deserts of southwestern North America, and to infer whether Quaternary glacial cycles or Tertiary geological events were important in shaping the historical biogeography of this group. We analyzed ten nuclear loci collected using Sanger sequencing and genome-wide sequence and single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data collected using restriction-associated DNA (RAD) sequencing. A combination of species discovery methods (concatenated phylogenies, parametric and non-parametric clustering algorithms) and species validation approaches (coalescent-based species tree/isolation-with-migration models) were used to delimit species, infer phylogenetic relationships, and to estimate effective population sizes, migration rates, and speciation times. Uma notata, U. inornata, U. cowlesi, and an undescribed species from Mohawk Dunes, Arizona (U. sp.) were supported as distinct in the concatenated analyses and by clustering algorithms, and all operational taxonomic units were decisively supported as distinct species by ranking hierarchical nested speciation models with Bayes factors based on coalescent-based species tree methods. However, significant unidirectional gene flow (2NM >1) from U. cowlesi and U. notata into U. rufopunctata was detected under the isolation-with-migration model. Therefore, we conservatively delimit four species-level lineages within this complex (U. inornata, U. notata, U. cowlesi, and U. sp.), treating U. rufopunctata as a hybrid population (U. notata x cowlesi). Both concatenated and coalescent-based estimates of speciation times support the hypotheses that speciation within the complex occurred during the late Pleistocene, and that the geological evolution of the Colorado River delta during this period was an important process shaping the observed phylogeographic patterns.

A Coalescent-Based Estimator of Admixture From DNA Sequences

PubMed Central

Wang, Jinliang

2006-01-01

A variety of estimators have been developed to use genetic marker information in inferring the admixture proportions (parental contributions) of a hybrid population. The majority of these estimators used allele frequency data, ignored molecular information that is available in markers such as microsatellites and DNA sequences, and assumed that mutations are absent since the admixture event. As a result, these estimators may fail to deliver an estimate or give rather poor estimates when admixture is ancient and thus mutations are not negligible. A previous molecular estimator based its inference of admixture proportions on the average coalescent times between pairs of genes taken from within and between populations. In this article I propose an estimator that considers the entire genealogy of all of the sampled genes and infers admixture proportions from the numbers of segregating sites in DNA sequence samples. By considering the genealogy of all sequences rather than pairs of sequences, this new estimator also allows the joint estimation of other interesting parameters in the admixture model, such as admixture time, divergence time, population size, and mutation rate. Comparative analyses of simulated data indicate that the new coalescent estimator generally yields better estimates of admixture proportions than the previous molecular estimator, especially when the parental populations are not highly differentiated. It also gives reasonably accurate estimates of other admixture parameters. A human mtDNA sequence data set was analyzed to demonstrate the method, and the analysis results are discussed and compared with those from previous studies. PMID:16624918

TOPICAL REVIEW: Predictions for the rates of compact binary coalescences observable by ground-based gravitational-wave detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abadie, J.; Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abernathy, M.; Accadia, T.; Acernese, F.; Adams, C.; Adhikari, R.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allen, G.; Amador Ceron, E.; Amin, R. S.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Antonucci, F.; Aoudia, S.; Arain, M. A.; Araya, M.; Aronsson, M.; Arun, K. G.; Aso, Y.; Aston, S.; Astone, P.; Atkinson, D. E.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Babak, S.; Baker, P.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S.; Barker, D.; Barnum, S.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barriga, P.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barton, M. A.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Bastarrika, M.; Bauchrowitz, J.; Bauer, Th S.; Behnke, B.; Beker, M. G.; Belczynski, K.; Benacquista, M.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Beveridge, N.; Beyersdorf, P. T.; Bigotta, S.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birch, J.; Birindelli, S.; Biswas, R.; Bitossi, M.; Bizouard, M. A.; Black, E.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackburn, L.; Blair, D.; Bland, B.; Blom, M.; Blomberg, A.; Boccara, C.; Bock, O.; Bodiya, T. P.; Bondarescu, R.; Bondu, F.; Bonelli, L.; Bork, R.; Born, M.; Bose, S.; Bosi, L.; Boyle, M.; Braccini, S.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Brau, J. E.; Breyer, J.; Bridges, D. O.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Britzger, M.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Budzyński, R.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Burguet-Castell, J.; Burmeister, O.; Buskulic, D.; Byer, R. L.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Campagna, E.; Campsie, P.; Cannizzo, J.; Cannon, K. C.; Canuel, B.; Cao, J.; Capano, C.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C.; Cesarini, E.; Chalermsongsak, T.; Chalkley, E.; Charlton, P.; Chassande Mottin, E.; Chelkowski, S.; Chen, Y.; Chincarini, A.; Christensen, N.; Chua, S. S. Y.; Chung, C. T. Y.; Clark, D.; Clark, J.; Clayton, J. H.; Cleva, F.; Coccia, E.; Colacino, C. N.; Colas, J.; Colla, A.; Colombini, M.; Conte, R.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R.; Corda, C.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Costa, C. A.; Coulon, J. P.; Coward, D.; Coyne, D. C.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cruise, A. M.; Culter, R. M.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Dahl, K.; Danilishin, S. L.; Dannenberg, R.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dari, A.; Das, K.; Dattilo, V.; Daudert, B.; Davier, M.; Davies, G.; Davis, A.; Daw, E. J.; Day, R.; Dayanga, T.; De Rosa, R.; DeBra, D.; Degallaix, J.; del Prete, M.; Dergachev, V.; DeRosa, R.; DeSalvo, R.; Devanka, P.; Dhurandhar, S.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Palma, I.; Emilio, M. Di Paolo; Di Virgilio, A.; Díaz, M.; Dietz, A.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doomes, E. E.; Dorsher, S.; Douglas, E. S. D.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Dueck, J.; Dumas, J. C.; Eberle, T.; Edgar, M.; Edwards, M.; Effler, A.; Ehrens, P.; Engel, R.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T.; Fafone, V.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, Y.; Farr, B. F.; Fazi, D.; Fehrmann, H.; Feldbaum, D.; Ferrante, I.; Fidecaro, F.; Finn, L. S.; Fiori, I.; Flaminio, R.; Flanigan, M.; Flasch, K.; Foley, S.; Forrest, C.; Forsi, E.; Fotopoulos, N.; Fournier, J. D.; Franc, J.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frede, M.; Frei, M.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Fricke, T. T.; Friedrich, D.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gammaitoni, L.; Garofoli, J. A.; Garufi, F.; Gemme, G.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; Gholami, I.; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giampanis, S.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, C.; Goetz, E.; Goggin, L. M.; González, G.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Goßler, S.; Gouaty, R.; Graef, C.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greenhalgh, R. J. S.; Gretarsson, A. M.; Greverie, C.; Grosso, R.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hage, B.; Hall, P.; Hallam, J. M.; Hammer, D.; Hammond, G.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hanson, J.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Harstad, E. D.; Haughian, K.; Hayama, K.; Heefner, J.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Heng, I. S.; Heptonstall, A.; Hewitson, M.; Hild, S.; Hirose, E.; Hoak, D.; Hodge, K. A.; Holt, K.; Hosken, D. J.; Hough, J.; Howell, E.; Hoyland, D.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Isogai, T.; Ivanov, A.; Jaranowski, P.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, G.; Jones, R.; Ju, L.; Kalmus, P.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kanner, J.; Katsavounidis, E.; Kawabe, K.; Kawamura, S.; Kawazoe, F.; Kells, W.; Keppel, D. G.; Khalaidovski, A.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kim, C.; Kim, H.; King, P. J.; Kinzel, D. L.; Kissel, J. S.; Klimenko, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kopparapu, R.; Koranda, S.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D.; Krause, T.; Kringel, V.; Krishnamurthy, S.; Krishnan, B.; Królak, A.; Kuehn, G.; Kullman, J.; Kumar, R.; Kwee, P.; Landry, M.; Lang, M.; Lantz, B.; Lastzka, N.; Lazzarini, A.; Leaci, P.; Leong, J.; Leonor, I.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Li, J.; Li, T. G. F.; Lin, H.; Lindquist, P. E.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lodhia, D.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lu, P.; Luan, J.; Lubiński, M.; Lucianetti, A.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Mackowski, J. M.; Mageswaran, M.; Mailand, K.; Majorana, E.; Mak, C.; Man, N.; Mandel, I.; Mandic, V.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Maros, E.; Marque, J.; Martelli, F.; Martin, I. W.; Martin, R. M.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Matzner, R. A.; Mavalvala, N.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIvor, G.; McKechan, D. J. A.; Meadors, G.; Mehmet, M.; Meier, T.; Melatos, A.; Melissinos, A. C.; Mendell, G.; Menéndez, D. F.; Mercer, R. A.; Merill, L.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Meyer, M. S.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Milano, L.; Miller, J.; Minenkov, Y.; Mino, Y.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moe, B.; Mohan, M.; Mohanty, S. D.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Moraru, D.; Moreau, J.; Moreno, G.; Morgado, N.; Morgia, A.; Morioka, T.; Mors, K.; Mosca, S.; Moscatelli, V.; Mossavi, K.; Mours, B.; MowLowry, C.; Mueller, G.; Mukherjee, S.; Mullavey, A.; Müller-Ebhardt, H.; Munch, J.; Murray, P. G.; Nash, T.; Nawrodt, R.; Nelson, J.; Neri, I.; Newton, G.; Nishizawa, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Ochsner, E.; O'Dell, J.; Ogin, G. H.; Oldenburg, R. G.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Osthelder, C.; Ottaway, D. J.; Ottens, R. S.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Page, A.; Pagliaroli, G.; Palladino, L.; Palomba, C.; Pan, Y.; Pankow, C.; Paoletti, F.; Papa, M. A.; Pardi, S.; Pareja, M.; Parisi, M.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patel, P.; Pedraza, M.; Pekowsky, L.; Penn, S.; Peralta, C.; Perreca, A.; Persichetti, G.; Pichot, M.; Pickenpack, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pietka, M.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Pletsch, H. J.; Plissi, M. V.; Poggiani, R.; Postiglione, F.; Prato, M.; Predoi, V.; Price, L. R.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prix, R.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Quetschke, V.; Raab, F. J.; Rabaste, O.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radke, T.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Rakhmanov, M.; Rankins, B.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Re, V.; Reed, C. M.; Reed, T.; Regimbau, T.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Ricci, F.; Riesen, R.; Riles, K.; Roberts, P.; Robertson, N. A.; Robinet, F.; Robinson, C.; Robinson, E. L.; Rocchi, A.; Roddy, S.; Röver, C.; Rogstad, S.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J.; Romano, J. D.; Romano, R.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Sakata, S.; Sakosky, M.; Salemi, F.; Sammut, L.; Sancho de la Jordana, L.; Sandberg, V.; Sannibale, V.; Santamaría, L.; Santostasi, G.; Saraf, S.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Sato, S.; Satterthwaite, M.; Saulson, P. R.; Savage, R.; Schilling, R.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R.; Schulz, B.; Schutz, B. F.; Schwinberg, P.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Searle, A. C.; Seifert, F.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sergeev, A.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Sibley, A.; Siemens, X.; Sigg, D.; Singer, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Skelton, G.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Slutsky, J.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, M. R.; Smith, N. D.; Somiya, K.; Sorazu, B.; Speirits, F. C.; Stein, A. J.; Stein, L. C.; Steinlechner, S.; Steplewski, S.; Stochino, A.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Strigin, S.; Stroeer, A.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sung, M.; Susmithan, S.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taylor, J. R.; Taylor, R.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Thüring, A.; Titsler, C.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Toncelli, A.; Tonelli, M.; Torres, C.; Torrie, C. I.; Tournefier, E.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trias, M.; Trummer, J.; Tseng, K.; Ugolini, D.; Urbanek, K.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vaishnav, B.; Vajente, G.; Vallisneri, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; van der Putten, S.; van der Sluys, M. V.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vass, S.; Vaulin, R.; Vavoulidis, M.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Veltkamp, C.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Villar, A.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Vyachanin, S. P.; Waldman, S. J.; Wallace, L.; Wanner, A.; Ward, R. L.; Was, M.; Wei, P.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Wen, L.; Wen, S.; Wessels, P.; West, M.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whitcomb, S. E.; White, D. J.; Whiting, B. F.; Wilkinson, C.; Willems, P. A.; Williams, L.; Willke, B.; Winkelmann, L.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wiseman, A. G.; Woan, G.; Wooley, R.; Worden, J.; Yakushin, I.; Yamamoto, H.; Yamamoto, K.; Yeaton-Massey, D.; Yoshida, S.; Yu, P. P.; Yvert, M.; Zanolin, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, C.; Zotov, N.; Zucker, M. E.; Zweizig, J.; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration

2010-09-01

We present an up-to-date, comprehensive summary of the rates for all types of compact binary coalescence sources detectable by the initial and advanced versions of the ground-based gravitational-wave detectors LIGO and Virgo. Astrophysical estimates for compact-binary coalescence rates depend on a number of assumptions and unknown model parameters and are still uncertain. The most confident among these estimates are the rate predictions for coalescing binary neutron stars which are based on extrapolations from observed binary pulsars in our galaxy. These yield a likely coalescence rate of 100 Myr-1 per Milky Way Equivalent Galaxy (MWEG), although the rate could plausibly range from 1 Myr-1 MWEG-1 to 1000 Myr-1 MWEG-1 (Kalogera et al 2004 Astrophys. J. 601 L179; Kalogera et al 2004 Astrophys. J. 614 L137 (erratum)). We convert coalescence rates into detection rates based on data from the LIGO S5 and Virgo VSR2 science runs and projected sensitivities for our advanced detectors. Using the detector sensitivities derived from these data, we find a likely detection rate of 0.02 per year for Initial LIGO-Virgo interferometers, with a plausible range between 2 × 10-4 and 0.2 per year. The likely binary neutron-star detection rate for the Advanced LIGO-Virgo network increases to 40 events per year, with a range between 0.4 and 400 per year.

Global diversity and oceanic divergence of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae).

PubMed

Jackson, Jennifer A; Steel, Debbie J; Beerli, P; Congdon, Bradley C; Olavarría, Carlos; Leslie, Matthew S; Pomilla, Cristina; Rosenbaum, Howard; Baker, C Scott

2014-07-07

Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) annually undertake the longest migrations between seasonal feeding and breeding grounds of any mammal. Despite this dispersal potential, discontinuous seasonal distributions and migratory patterns suggest that humpbacks form discrete regional populations within each ocean. To better understand the worldwide population history of humpbacks, and the interplay of this species with the oceanic environment through geological time, we assembled mitochondrial DNA control region sequences representing approximately 2700 individuals (465 bp, 219 haplotypes) and eight nuclear intronic sequences representing approximately 70 individuals (3700 bp, 140 alleles) from the North Pacific, North Atlantic and Southern Hemisphere. Bayesian divergence time reconstructions date the origin of humpback mtDNA lineages to the Pleistocene (880 ka, 95% posterior intervals 550-1320 ka) and estimate radiation of current Northern Hemisphere lineages between 50 and 200 ka, indicating colonization of the northern oceans prior to the Last Glacial Maximum. Coalescent analyses reveal restricted gene flow between ocean basins, with long-term migration rates (individual migrants per generation) of less than 3.3 for mtDNA and less than 2 for nuclear genomic DNA. Genetic evidence suggests that humpbacks in the North Pacific, North Atlantic and Southern Hemisphere are on independent evolutionary trajectories, supporting taxonomic revision of M. novaeangliae to three subspecies. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Global diversity and oceanic divergence of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae)

PubMed Central

Jackson, Jennifer A.; Steel, Debbie J.; Beerli, P.; Congdon, Bradley C.; Olavarría, Carlos; Leslie, Matthew S.; Pomilla, Cristina; Rosenbaum, Howard; Baker, C. Scott

2014-01-01

Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) annually undertake the longest migrations between seasonal feeding and breeding grounds of any mammal. Despite this dispersal potential, discontinuous seasonal distributions and migratory patterns suggest that humpbacks form discrete regional populations within each ocean. To better understand the worldwide population history of humpbacks, and the interplay of this species with the oceanic environment through geological time, we assembled mitochondrial DNA control region sequences representing approximately 2700 individuals (465 bp, 219 haplotypes) and eight nuclear intronic sequences representing approximately 70 individuals (3700 bp, 140 alleles) from the North Pacific, North Atlantic and Southern Hemisphere. Bayesian divergence time reconstructions date the origin of humpback mtDNA lineages to the Pleistocene (880 ka, 95% posterior intervals 550–1320 ka) and estimate radiation of current Northern Hemisphere lineages between 50 and 200 ka, indicating colonization of the northern oceans prior to the Last Glacial Maximum. Coalescent analyses reveal restricted gene flow between ocean basins, with long-term migration rates (individual migrants per generation) of less than 3.3 for mtDNA and less than 2 for nuclear genomic DNA. Genetic evidence suggests that humpbacks in the North Pacific, North Atlantic and Southern Hemisphere are on independent evolutionary trajectories, supporting taxonomic revision of M. novaeangliae to three subspecies. PMID:24850919

Delimiting cryptic pathogen species causing apple Valsa canker with multilocus data

PubMed Central

Wang, Xuli; Zang, Rui; Yin, Zhiyuan; Kang, Zhensheng; Huang, Lili

2014-01-01

Fungal diseases are posing tremendous threats to global economy and food safety. Among them, Valsa canker, caused by fungi of Valsa and their Cytospora anamorphs, has been a serious threat to fruit and forest trees and is one of the most destructive diseases of apple in East Asia, particularly. Accurate and robust delimitation of pathogen species is not only essential for the development of effective disease control programs, but also will advance our understanding of the emergence of plant diseases. However, species delimitation is especially difficult in Valsa because of the high variability of morphological traits and in many cases the lack of the teleomorph. In this study, we delimitated species boundary for pathogens causing apple Valsa canker with a multifaceted approach. Based on three independent loci, the internal transcribed spacer (ITS), β-tubulin (Btu), and translation elongation factor-1 alpha (EF1α), we inferred gene trees with both maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, estimated species tree with Bayesian multispecies coalescent approaches, and validated species tree with Bayesian species delimitation. Through divergence time estimation and ancestral host reconstruction, we tested the possible underlying mechanisms for fungal speciation and host-range change. Our results proved that two varieties of the former morphological species V. mali represented two distinct species, V. mali and V. pyri, which diverged about 5 million years ago, much later than the divergence of their preferred hosts, excluding a scenario of fungi–host co-speciation. The marked different thermal preferences and contrasting pathogenicity in cross-inoculation suggest ecological divergences between the two species. Apple was the most likely ancestral host for both V. mali and V. pyri. Host-range expansion led to the occurrence of V. pyri on both pear and apple. Our results also represent an example in which ITS data might underestimate species diversity. PMID:24834333

Univariate and bivariate likelihood-based meta-analysis methods performed comparably when marginal sensitivity and specificity were the targets of inference.

PubMed

Dahabreh, Issa J; Trikalinos, Thomas A; Lau, Joseph; Schmid, Christopher H

2017-03-01

To compare statistical methods for meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity of medical tests (e.g., diagnostic or screening tests). We constructed a database of PubMed-indexed meta-analyses of test performance from which 2 × 2 tables for each included study could be extracted. We reanalyzed the data using univariate and bivariate random effects models fit with inverse variance and maximum likelihood methods. Analyses were performed using both normal and binomial likelihoods to describe within-study variability. The bivariate model using the binomial likelihood was also fit using a fully Bayesian approach. We use two worked examples-thoracic computerized tomography to detect aortic injury and rapid prescreening of Papanicolaou smears to detect cytological abnormalities-to highlight that different meta-analysis approaches can produce different results. We also present results from reanalysis of 308 meta-analyses of sensitivity and specificity. Models using the normal approximation produced sensitivity and specificity estimates closer to 50% and smaller standard errors compared to models using the binomial likelihood; absolute differences of 5% or greater were observed in 12% and 5% of meta-analyses for sensitivity and specificity, respectively. Results from univariate and bivariate random effects models were similar, regardless of estimation method. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods produced almost identical summary estimates under the bivariate model; however, Bayesian analyses indicated greater uncertainty around those estimates. Bivariate models produced imprecise estimates of the between-study correlation of sensitivity and specificity. Differences between methods were larger with increasing proportion of studies that were small or required a continuity correction. The binomial likelihood should be used to model within-study variability. Univariate and bivariate models give similar estimates of the marginal distributions for sensitivity and specificity. Bayesian methods fully quantify uncertainty and their ability to incorporate external evidence may be useful for imprecisely estimated parameters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Estimation of Small Effects in Exercise and Sports Science.

PubMed

Mengersen, Kerrie L; Drovandi, Christopher C; Robert, Christian P; Pyne, David B; Gore, Christopher J

2016-01-01

The aim of this paper is to provide a Bayesian formulation of the so-called magnitude-based inference approach to quantifying and interpreting effects, and in a case study example provide accurate probabilistic statements that correspond to the intended magnitude-based inferences. The model is described in the context of a published small-scale athlete study which employed a magnitude-based inference approach to compare the effect of two altitude training regimens (live high-train low (LHTL), and intermittent hypoxic exposure (IHE)) on running performance and blood measurements of elite triathletes. The posterior distributions, and corresponding point and interval estimates, for the parameters and associated effects and comparisons of interest, were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayesian analysis was shown to provide more direct probabilistic comparisons of treatments and able to identify small effects of interest. The approach avoided asymptotic assumptions and overcame issues such as multiple testing. Bayesian analysis of unscaled effects showed a probability of 0.96 that LHTL yields a substantially greater increase in hemoglobin mass than IHE, a 0.93 probability of a substantially greater improvement in running economy and a greater than 0.96 probability that both IHE and LHTL yield a substantially greater improvement in maximum blood lactate concentration compared to a Placebo. The conclusions are consistent with those obtained using a 'magnitude-based inference' approach that has been promoted in the field. The paper demonstrates that a fully Bayesian analysis is a simple and effective way of analysing small effects, providing a rich set of results that are straightforward to interpret in terms of probabilistic statements.

Coalescence driven self-organization of growing nanodroplets around a microcap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dyett, Brendan; Hao, Hao; Lohse, Detlef; Zhang, Xuehua

The coalescence between growing droplets is important for the surface coverage and spatial arrangements of droplets on surfaces. In this work, total internal reflection fluorescence (TIRF) microscopy is utilized to in-situ investigate the formation of nanodroplets around the rim of a polymer microcap, with sub-micron spatial and millisecond temporal resolution. We observe that the coalescence among droplets occurs frequently during their growth by solvent exchange. Our experimental results show that the position of the droplet from two merged droplets is related to the size of the parent droplets. The position of the coalesced droplet and the ratio of parent droplet sizes obey a scaling law, reflecting a coalescence preference based on the size inequality. As a result of droplet coalescence, the angles between the centroids of two neighbouring droplets increase with time, obeying a nearly symmetrical arrangement of droplets at various time intervals. The evolution of the position and number from coalescence of growing droplets is modelled. The mechanism for coalescence driven self-organization of growing droplets is general, applicable to microcaps of different sizes and droplets of different liquids. The understanding from this work may be valuable for positioning nanodroplets by nucleation and growth without using templates.

Coalescence driven self-organization of growing nanodroplets around a microcap.

PubMed

Dyett, Brendan; Hao, Hao; Lohse, Detlef; Zhang, Xuehua

2018-04-04

The coalescence between growing droplets is important for the surface coverage and spatial arrangements of droplets on surfaces. In this work, total internal reflection fluorescence (TIRF) microscopy is utilized to in situ investigate the formation of nanodroplets around the rim of a polymer microcap, with sub-micron spatial and millisecond temporal resolution. We observe that the coalescence among droplets occurs frequently during their growth by solvent exchange. Our experimental results show that the position of the droplet from two merged droplets is related to the size of the parent droplets. The position of the coalesced droplet and the ratio of parent droplet sizes obey a scaling law, reflecting a coalescence preference based on the size inequality. As a result of droplet coalescence, the angles between the centroids of two neighbouring droplets increase with time, obeying a nearly symmetrical arrangement of droplets at various time intervals. The evolution of the position and number from coalescence of growing droplets is modelled. The mechanism for coalescence driven self-organization of growing droplets is general, applicable to microcaps of different sizes and droplets of different liquids. The understanding from this work may be valuable for positioning nanodroplets by nucleation and growth without using templates.

Determination of the coalescence temperature of latexes by environmental scanning electron microscopy.

PubMed

Gonzalez, Edurne; Tollan, Christopher; Chuvilin, Andrey; Barandiaran, Maria J; Paulis, Maria

2012-08-01

A new methodology for quantitative characterization of the coalescence process of waterborne polymer dispersion (latex) particles by environmental scanning electron microscopy (ESEM) is proposed. The experimental setup has been developed to provide reproducible latex monolayer depositions, optimized contrast of the latex particles, and a reliable readout of the sample temperature. Quantification of the coalescence process under dry conditions has been performed by image processing based on evaluation of the image autocorrelation function. As a proof of concept the coalescence of two latexes with known and differing glass transition temperatures has been measured. It has been shown that a reproducibility of better than 1.5 °C can be obtained for the measurement of the coalescence temperature.

Extensive cryptic species diversity and fine-scale endemism in the marine red alga Portieria in the Philippines

PubMed Central

Payo, Dioli Ann; Leliaert, Frederik; Verbruggen, Heroen; D'hondt, Sofie; Calumpong, Hilconida P.; De Clerck, Olivier

2013-01-01

We investigated species diversity and distribution patterns of the marine red alga Portieria in the Philippine archipelago. Species boundaries were tested based on mitochondrial, plastid and nuclear encoded loci, using a general mixed Yule-coalescent (GMYC) model-based approach and a Bayesian multilocus species delimitation method. The outcome of the GMYC analysis of the mitochondrial encoded cox2-3 dataset was highly congruent with the multilocus analysis. In stark contrast with the current morphology-based assumption that the genus includes a single, widely distributed species in the Indo-West Pacific (Portieria hornemannii), DNA-based species delimitation resulted in the recognition of 21 species within the Philippines. Species distributions were found to be highly structured with most species restricted to island groups within the archipelago. These extremely narrow species ranges and high levels of intra-archipelagic endemism contrast with the wide-held belief that marine organisms generally have large geographical ranges and that endemism is at most restricted to the archipelagic level. Our results indicate that speciation in the marine environment may occur at spatial scales smaller than 100 km, comparable with some terrestrial systems. Our finding of fine-scale endemism has important consequences for marine conservation and management. PMID:23269854

Studying the kinematic asymmetries of disks and post-coalescence mergers using a new "kinemetry" criterion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellocchi, E.; Arribas, S.; Colina, L.

2012-06-01

Context. Ultra luminous and luminous infrared galaxies [(U)LIRGs] are important galaxy populations for studying galaxy evolution, and are likely to have been responsible for a significant fraction of the star formation that occurred prior to z ~ 1. Local (U)LIRGs can be used to study criteria that are suitable for characterizing similar high redshift populations. We are particularly interested in identifying reliable kinematic-based methods capable of distinguishing disks and mergers, as their relative fraction is a key observational input to constrain different evolutionary scenarios. Aims: Our goal is to analyze in detail the kinematics of the ionized gas of a small sample of LIRGs and study criteria that permit us to characterize the evolutionary status of these systems. Methods: We obtained Very Large Telescope VIMOS optical integral field spectroscopy (IFS) data of four LIRGs selected at similar distances (~70 Mpc) to avoid relative resolution effects. Two of these systems had been previously classified as regular isolated disks galaxies and the other two as post-coalescence mergers based on their morphology. The kinemetry method (developed by Krajnović and coworkers) is used to characterize the kinematic properties of these galaxies and discuss new criteria for distinguishing their status. Results: We present and discuss new kinematic maps (i.e., velocity field and velocity dispersion) for these four galaxies. These kinematic data suggest that nuclear outflows exist in all these galaxies, and are particularly intense for the post-coalescence merger systems. The vc/σc parameter has values between those that are typical of local spiral galaxies (i.e., vc/σc = 5-15) and those obtained for Lyman break analogs at z ~ 0.2 (i.e., vc/σc = 0.4-1.8). Our use of one-dimensional parameters, such as vc/σc or vshear/Σ, does not allow us to distinguish between the two groups (i.e., disks, post-coalescence systems). However, when the full two-dimensional kinematic information of the IFS data is analyzed by means of kinemetry, their morphological and kinematic classifications are consistent, with disks having lower kinematic asymmetries than post-coalescence mergers. We propose and discuss a new kinematic criterion to differentiate between these two groups. In particular, we introduce a weighting that favors the outer parts of the kinematic maps when computing the total asymmetries. This step is taken because post-coalescence mergers display relatively small kinematic asymmetries in their inner parts as a consequence of the rapid relaxation of gas into a rotating disk, whereas the outer parts continue to be out of equilibrium (i.e., to have larger asymmetries). We find that, in addition to distinguishing post-coalescence mergers from rotating disks, this new criterion has the advantage of being less sensitive to angular resolution effects. According to previous kinemetry-based analyses designed to distinguish disks and mergers at high-z, the present post-coalescence systems would have been classified as disks. This indicates that the separation of disks from mergers depends on the definition of a merger. It also suggests that previous estimates of the merger/disk ratio might have been underestimated, but larger samples are necessary to establish a firmer conclusion.

Bayesian methods in reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

1991-11-01

The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

The evolutionary relationships and age of Homo naledi: An assessment using dated Bayesian phylogenetic methods.

PubMed

Dembo, Mana; Radovčić, Davorka; Garvin, Heather M; Laird, Myra F; Schroeder, Lauren; Scott, Jill E; Brophy, Juliet; Ackermann, Rebecca R; Musiba, Chares M; de Ruiter, Darryl J; Mooers, Arne Ø; Collard, Mark

2016-08-01

Homo naledi is a recently discovered species of fossil hominin from South Africa. A considerable amount is already known about H. naledi but some important questions remain unanswered. Here we report a study that addressed two of them: "Where does H. naledi fit in the hominin evolutionary tree?" and "How old is it?" We used a large supermatrix of craniodental characters for both early and late hominin species and Bayesian phylogenetic techniques to carry out three analyses. First, we performed a dated Bayesian analysis to generate estimates of the evolutionary relationships of fossil hominins including H. naledi. Then we employed Bayes factor tests to compare the strength of support for hypotheses about the relationships of H. naledi suggested by the best-estimate trees. Lastly, we carried out a resampling analysis to assess the accuracy of the age estimate for H. naledi yielded by the dated Bayesian analysis. The analyses strongly supported the hypothesis that H. naledi forms a clade with the other Homo species and Australopithecus sediba. The analyses were more ambiguous regarding the position of H. naledi within the (Homo, Au. sediba) clade. A number of hypotheses were rejected, but several others were not. Based on the available craniodental data, Homo antecessor, Asian Homo erectus, Homo habilis, Homo floresiensis, Homo sapiens, and Au. sediba could all be the sister taxon of H. naledi. According to the dated Bayesian analysis, the most likely age for H. naledi is 912 ka. This age estimate was supported by the resampling analysis. Our findings have a number of implications. Most notably, they support the assignment of the new specimens to Homo, cast doubt on the claim that H. naledi is simply a variant of H. erectus, and suggest H. naledi is younger than has been previously proposed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Real-time prediction of acute cardiovascular events using hardware-implemented Bayesian networks.

PubMed

Tylman, Wojciech; Waszyrowski, Tomasz; Napieralski, Andrzej; Kamiński, Marek; Trafidło, Tamara; Kulesza, Zbigniew; Kotas, Rafał; Marciniak, Paweł; Tomala, Radosław; Wenerski, Maciej

2016-02-01

This paper presents a decision support system that aims to estimate a patient׳s general condition and detect situations which pose an immediate danger to the patient׳s health or life. The use of this system might be especially important in places such as accident and emergency departments or admission wards, where a small medical team has to take care of many patients in various general conditions. Particular stress is laid on cardiovascular and pulmonary conditions, including those leading to sudden cardiac arrest. The proposed system is a stand-alone microprocessor-based device that works in conjunction with a standard vital signs monitor, which provides input signals such as temperature, blood pressure, pulseoxymetry, ECG, and ICG. The signals are preprocessed and analysed by a set of artificial intelligence algorithms, the core of which is based on Bayesian networks. The paper focuses on the construction and evaluation of the Bayesian network, both its structure and numerical specification. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Introduction to Bayesian statistical approaches to compositional analyses of transgenic crops 1. Model validation and setting the stage.

PubMed

Harrison, Jay M; Breeze, Matthew L; Harrigan, George G

2011-08-01

Statistical comparisons of compositional data generated on genetically modified (GM) crops and their near-isogenic conventional (non-GM) counterparts typically rely on classical significance testing. This manuscript presents an introduction to Bayesian methods for compositional analysis along with recommendations for model validation. The approach is illustrated using protein and fat data from two herbicide tolerant GM soybeans (MON87708 and MON87708×MON89788) and a conventional comparator grown in the US in 2008 and 2009. Guidelines recommended by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in conducting Bayesian analyses of clinical studies on medical devices were followed. This study is the first Bayesian approach to GM and non-GM compositional comparisons. The evaluation presented here supports a conclusion that a Bayesian approach to analyzing compositional data can provide meaningful and interpretable results. We further describe the importance of method validation and approaches to model checking if Bayesian approaches to compositional data analysis are to be considered viable by scientists involved in GM research and regulation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Developing Critical Thinking about Reporting of Bayesian Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pullenayegum, Eleanor M.; Guo, Qing; Hopkins, Robert B.

2012-01-01

Graduate students in the health sciences who hope to become independent researchers must be able to write up their results at a standard suitable for submission to peer-reviewed journals. Bayesian analyses are still rare in the medical literature, and students are often unclear on what should be included in a manuscript. Whilst there are published…

A Bayesian network model for predicting type 2 diabetes risk based on electronic health records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Jiang; Liu, Yan; Zeng, Xu; Zhang, Wu; Mei, Zhen

2017-07-01

An extensive, in-depth study of diabetes risk factors (DBRF) is of crucial importance to prevent (or reduce) the chance of suffering from type 2 diabetes (T2D). Accumulation of electronic health records (EHRs) makes it possible to build nonlinear relationships between risk factors and diabetes. However, the current DBRF researches mainly focus on qualitative analyses, and the inconformity of physical examination items makes the risk factors likely to be lost, which drives us to study the novel machine learning approach for risk model development. In this paper, we use Bayesian networks (BNs) to analyze the relationship between physical examination information and T2D, and to quantify the link between risk factors and T2D. Furthermore, with the quantitative analyses of DBRF, we adopt EHR and propose a machine learning approach based on BNs to predict the risk of T2D. The experiments demonstrate that our approach can lead to better predictive performance than the classical risk model.

Species delimitation using Bayes factors: simulations and application to the Sceloporus scalaris species group (Squamata: Phrynosomatidae).

PubMed

Grummer, Jared A; Bryson, Robert W; Reeder, Tod W

2014-03-01

Current molecular methods of species delimitation are limited by the types of species delimitation models and scenarios that can be tested. Bayes factors allow for more flexibility in testing non-nested species delimitation models and hypotheses of individual assignment to alternative lineages. Here, we examined the efficacy of Bayes factors in delimiting species through simulations and empirical data from the Sceloporus scalaris species group. Marginal-likelihood scores of competing species delimitation models, from which Bayes factor values were compared, were estimated with four different methods: harmonic mean estimation (HME), smoothed harmonic mean estimation (sHME), path-sampling/thermodynamic integration (PS), and stepping-stone (SS) analysis. We also performed model selection using a posterior simulation-based analog of the Akaike information criterion through Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis (AICM). Bayes factor species delimitation results from the empirical data were then compared with results from the reversible-jump MCMC (rjMCMC) coalescent-based species delimitation method Bayesian Phylogenetics and Phylogeography (BP&P). Simulation results show that HME and sHME perform poorly compared with PS and SS marginal-likelihood estimators when identifying the true species delimitation model. Furthermore, Bayes factor delimitation (BFD) of species showed improved performance when species limits are tested by reassigning individuals between species, as opposed to either lumping or splitting lineages. In the empirical data, BFD through PS and SS analyses, as well as the rjMCMC method, each provide support for the recognition of all scalaris group taxa as independent evolutionary lineages. Bayes factor species delimitation and BP&P also support the recognition of three previously undescribed lineages. In both simulated and empirical data sets, harmonic and smoothed harmonic mean marginal-likelihood estimators provided much higher marginal-likelihood estimates than PS and SS estimators. The AICM displayed poor repeatability in both simulated and empirical data sets, and produced inconsistent model rankings across replicate runs with the empirical data. Our results suggest that species delimitation through the use of Bayes factors with marginal-likelihood estimates via PS or SS analyses provide a useful and complementary alternative to existing species delimitation methods.

Critical Void Volume Fraction fc at Void Coalescence for S235JR Steel at Low Initial Stress Triaxiality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grzegorz Kossakowski, Paweł; Wciślik, Wiktor

2017-10-01

The paper is concerned with the nucleation, growth and coalescence of microdefects in the form of voids in S235JR steel. The material is known to be one of the basic steel grades commonly used in the construction industry. The theory and methods of damage mechanics were applied to determine and describe the failure mechanisms that occur when the material undergoes deformation. Until now, engineers have generally employed the Gurson-Tvergaard- Needleman model. This material model based on damage mechanics is well suited to define and analyze failure processes taking place in the microstructure of S235JR steel. It is particularly important to determine the critical void volume fraction fc , which is one of the basic parameters of the Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman material model. As the critical void volume fraction fc refers to the failure stage, it is determined from the data collected for the void coalescence phase. A case of multi-axial stresses is considered taking into account the effects of spatial stress state. In this study, the parameter of stress triaxiality η was used to describe the failure phenomena. Cylindrical tensile specimens with a circumferential notch were analysed to obtain low values of initial stress triaxiality (η = 0.556 of the range) in order to determine the critical void volume fraction fc . It is essential to emphasize how unique the method applied is and how different it is from the other more common methods involving parameter calibration, i.e. curve-fitting methods. The critical void volume fraction fc at void coalescence was established through digital image analysis of surfaces of S235JR steel, which involved studying real, physical results obtained directly from the material tested.

Recent results and persisting problems in modeling flow induced coalescence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fortelný, I., E-mail: fortelny@imc.cas.cz, E-mail: juza@imc.cas.cz; Jza, J., E-mail: fortelny@imc.cas.cz, E-mail: juza@imc.cas.cz

2014-05-15

The contribution summarizes recent results of description of the flow induced coalescence in immiscible polymer blends and addresses problems that call for which solving. The theory of coalescence based on the switch between equations for matrix drainage between spherical or deformed droplets provides a good agreement with more complicated modeling and available experimental data for probability, P{sub c}, that the collision of droplets will be followed by their fusion. A new equation for description of the matrix drainage between deformed droplets, applicable to the whole range of viscosity ratios, p, of the droplets and matrixes, is proposed. The theory facilitatesmore » to consider the effect of the matrix elasticity on coalescence. P{sub c} decreases with the matrix relaxation time but this decrease is not pronounced for relaxation times typical of most commercial polymers. Modeling of the flow induced coalescence in concentrated systems is needed for prediction of the dependence of coalescence rate on volume fraction of droplets. The effect of the droplet anisometry on P{sub c} should be studied for better understanding the coalescence in flow field with high and moderate deformation rates. A reliable description of coalescence in mixing and processing devices requires proper modeling of complex flow fields.« less

Bayesian just-so stories in psychology and neuroscience.

PubMed

Bowers, Jeffrey S; Davis, Colin J

2012-05-01

According to Bayesian theories in psychology and neuroscience, minds and brains are (near) optimal in solving a wide range of tasks. We challenge this view and argue that more traditional, non-Bayesian approaches are more promising. We make 3 main arguments. First, we show that the empirical evidence for Bayesian theories in psychology is weak. This weakness relates to the many arbitrary ways that priors, likelihoods, and utility functions can be altered in order to account for the data that are obtained, making the models unfalsifiable. It further relates to the fact that Bayesian theories are rarely better at predicting data compared with alternative (and simpler) non-Bayesian theories. Second, we show that the empirical evidence for Bayesian theories in neuroscience is weaker still. There are impressive mathematical analyses showing how populations of neurons could compute in a Bayesian manner but little or no evidence that they do. Third, we challenge the general scientific approach that characterizes Bayesian theorizing in cognitive science. A common premise is that theories in psychology should largely be constrained by a rational analysis of what the mind ought to do. We question this claim and argue that many of the important constraints come from biological, evolutionary, and processing (algorithmic) considerations that have no adaptive relevance to the problem per se. In our view, these factors have contributed to the development of many Bayesian "just so" stories in psychology and neuroscience; that is, mathematical analyses of cognition that can be used to explain almost any behavior as optimal. 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Critical frequency for coalescence of emulsions in an AC electric field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhou; Ali, Faizi Hammad; Shum, Ho Cheung

2017-11-01

Applying an electric field to trigger the coalescence of emulsions has been applied in various applications which include crude oil recovery, emulsion stability characterization as well as pico-injection and droplet-based chemical reaction in microfluidics. In this work, we systematically investigated the responses of surfactant-stabilized emulsions to a controlled AC electric field using a customer-built chip. At a given amplitude of the AC voltage, we found a critical frequency beyond which the emulsions remain stable. When the frequency is decreased to below the critical value, emulsions coalesce immediately. Such critical frequency is found to be dependent of amplitude of the AC voltage, viscosity of the fluids, concentration and type of the surfactant as well as the electric conductivity of the droplet phase. Using a model based on the drainage of thin film, we have explored the mechanism behind and interpret this phenomenon systematically. Our work extends the understanding of the electro-coalescence of emulsions and can be beneficial for any applications involve the coalescence of droplets in an AC electric field.

Gene tree rooting methods give distributions that mimic the coalescent process.

PubMed

Tian, Yuan; Kubatko, Laura S

2014-01-01

Multi-locus phylogenetic inference is commonly carried out via models that incorporate the coalescent process to model the possibility that incomplete lineage sorting leads to incongruence between gene trees and the species tree. An interesting question that arises in this context is whether data "fit" the coalescent model. Previous work (Rosenfeld et al., 2012) has suggested that rooting of gene trees may account for variation in empirical data that has been previously attributed to the coalescent process. We examine this possibility using simulated data. We show that, in the case of four taxa, the distribution of gene trees observed from rooting estimated gene trees with either the molecular clock or with outgroup rooting can be closely matched by the distribution predicted by the coalescent model with specific choices of species tree branch lengths. We apply commonly-used coalescent-based methods of species tree inference to assess their performance in these situations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pareto genealogies arising from a Poisson branching evolution model with selection.

PubMed

Huillet, Thierry E

2014-02-01

We study a class of coalescents derived from a sampling procedure out of N i.i.d. Pareto(α) random variables, normalized by their sum, including β-size-biasing on total length effects (β < α). Depending on the range of α we derive the large N limit coalescents structure, leading either to a discrete-time Poisson-Dirichlet (α, -β) Ξ-coalescent (α ε[0, 1)), or to a family of continuous-time Beta (2 - α, α - β)Λ-coalescents (α ε[1, 2)), or to the Kingman coalescent (α ≥ 2). We indicate that this class of coalescent processes (and their scaling limits) may be viewed as the genealogical processes of some forward in time evolving branching population models including selection effects. In such constant-size population models, the reproduction step, which is based on a fitness-dependent Poisson Point Process with scaling power-law(α) intensity, is coupled to a selection step consisting of sorting out the N fittest individuals issued from the reproduction step.

Minimal-assumption inference from population-genomic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weissman, Daniel; Hallatschek, Oskar

Samples of multiple complete genome sequences contain vast amounts of information about the evolutionary history of populations, much of it in the associations among polymorphisms at different loci. Current methods that take advantage of this linkage information rely on models of recombination and coalescence, limiting the sample sizes and populations that they can analyze. We introduce a method, Minimal-Assumption Genomic Inference of Coalescence (MAGIC), that reconstructs key features of the evolutionary history, including the distribution of coalescence times, by integrating information across genomic length scales without using an explicit model of recombination, demography or selection. Using simulated data, we show that MAGIC's performance is comparable to PSMC' on single diploid samples generated with standard coalescent and recombination models. More importantly, MAGIC can also analyze arbitrarily large samples and is robust to changes in the coalescent and recombination processes. Using MAGIC, we show that the inferred coalescence time histories of samples of multiple human genomes exhibit inconsistencies with a description in terms of an effective population size based on single-genome data.

Prevention of nanoparticle coalescence under high-temperature annealing.

PubMed

Mizuno, Mikihisa; Sasaki, Yuichi; Yu, Andrew C C; Inoue, Makoto

2004-12-21

An effective method of employing 3-aminopropyldimethylethoxysilane linker molecules to stabilize 4.4 nm FePt nanoparticle monolayer films on a SiO2 substrate as well as to prevent coalescence of the particles under 800 degrees C annealing is reported. As-deposited FePt nanoparticle films in chemically disordered face-centered-cubic phase transform to mostly chemically ordered L1 0 structure after annealing, while the nanoparticles are free from serious coalescence. The method may fulfill the pressing need to prevent nanoparticle coalescence under high-temperature annealing for the development of FePt nanoparticle based products, such as ultrahigh-density magnetic recording media and novel memory devices.

Molecular phylogenetics reveals convergent evolution in lower Congo River spiny eels.

PubMed

Alter, S Elizabeth; Brown, Bianca; Stiassny, Melanie L J

2015-10-15

The lower Congo River (LCR) is a region of exceptional species diversity and endemism in the Congo basin, including numerous species of spiny eels (genus Mastacembelus). Four of these exhibit distinctive phenotypes characterized by greatly reduced optic globes deeply embedded into the head (cryptophthalmia) and reduced (or absent) melanin pigmentation, among other characteristics. A strikingly similar cryptophthalmic phenotype is also found in members of a number of unrelated fish families, strongly suggesting the possibility of convergent evolution. However, little is known about the evolutionary processes that shaped diversification in LCR Mastacembelus, their biogeographic origins, or when colonization of the LCR occurred. We sequenced mitochondrial and nuclear genes from Mastacembelus species collected in the lower Congo River, and compared them with other African species and Asian representatives as outgroups. We analyzed the sequence data using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic inference. Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic analyses, and Bayesian coalescent methods for species tree reconstruction, reveal that endemic LCR spiny eels derive from two independent origins, clearly demonstrating convergent evolution of the cryptophthalmic phenotype. Mastacembelus crassus, M. aviceps, and M. simbi form a clade, allied to species found in southern, eastern and central Africa. Unexpectedly, M. brichardi and brachyrhinus fall within a clade otherwise endemic to Lake Tanganikya (LT) ca. 1500 km east of the LCR. Divergence dating suggests the ages of these two clades of LCR endemics differ markedly. The age of the crassus group is estimated at ~4 Myr while colonization of the LCR by the brichardi-brachyrhinus progenitor was considerably more recent, dated at ~0.5 Myr. The phylogenetic framework of spiny eels presented here, the first to include LCR species, demonstrates that cryptophthalmia and associated traits evolved at least twice in Mastacembelus: once in M. brichardi and at least once in the M. crassus clade. Timing of diversification is broadly consistent with the onset of modern high-energy flow conditions in the LCR and with previous studies of endemic cichlids. The close genetic relationship between M. brichardi and M. brachyrhinus is particularly notable given the extreme difference in phenotype between these species, and additional work is needed to better understand the evolutionary history of diversification in this clade. The findings presented here demonstrate strong, multi-trait convergence in LCR spiny eels, suggesting that extreme selective pressures have shaped numerous phenotypic attributes of the endemic species of this region.

Near Full-Length Characterization and Population Dynamics of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type I Circulating Recombinant Form 42 (CRF42_BF) in Luxembourg.

PubMed

Struck, Daniel; Roman, François; De Landtsheer, Sébastien; Servais, Jean-Yves; Lambert, Christine; Masquelier, Cécile; Venard, Véronique; Ruelle, Jean; Nijhuis, Monique; Schmit, Jean-Claude; Seguin-Devaux, Carole

2015-05-01

A new recombinant form representing a mosaic of HIV-1 subtype B and F1 and designated as CRF42_BF was identified in Luxembourg. We confirmed the inedited nature of CRF42_BF by near full-length genome characterization and retrieved a possible ancestor originating from Brazil. The demographic history of CRF42_BF in Luxembourg using Bayesian coalescent-based methods was investigated. The exponential phase of the logistic growth happened in a very short time period of approximately 5 months associated with a high mean rate of population growth of 15.02 new infections per year. However, CRF42_BF was not characterized by either a higher ex vivo replication capacity in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) or a higher ex vivo transmission efficiency from monocyte-derived dendritic cells to PBMCs as compared to B and F1 viruses. These data do not support a high pathogenic potential of CFR42_BF but rather an initial bursting spread of the recombinant probably due to a more favorable transmission route.

Molecular phylogenetics and species delimitation of leaf-toed geckos (Phyllodactylidae: Phyllodactylus) throughout the Mexican tropical dry forest.

PubMed

Blair, Christopher; Méndez de la Cruz, Fausto R; Law, Christopher; Murphy, Robert W

2015-03-01

Methods and approaches for accurate species delimitation continue to be a highly controversial subject in the systematics community. Inaccurate assessment of species' limits precludes accurate inference of historical evolutionary processes. Recent evidence suggests that multilocus coalescent methods show promise in delimiting species in cryptic clades. We combine multilocus sequence data with coalescence-based phylogenetics in a hypothesis-testing framework to assess species limits and elucidate the timing of diversification in leaf-toed geckos (Phyllodactylus) of Mexico's dry forests. Tropical deciduous forests (TDF) of the Neotropics are among the planet's most diverse ecosystems. However, in comparison to moist tropical forests, little is known about the mode and tempo of biotic evolution throughout this threatened biome. We find increased speciation and substantial, cryptic molecular diversity originating following the formation of Mexican TDF 30-20million years ago due to orogenesis of the Sierra Madre Occidental and Mexican Volcanic Belt. Phylogenetic results suggest that the Mexican Volcanic Belt, the Rio Fuerte, and Isthmus of Tehuantepec may be important biogeographic barriers. Single- and multilocus coalescent analyses suggest that nearly every sampling locality may be a distinct species. These results suggest unprecedented levels of diversity, a complex evolutionary history, and that the formation and expansion of TDF vegetation in the Miocene may have influenced subsequent cladogenesis of leaf-toed geckos throughout western Mexico. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary dynamics of Hepatitis C virus in a chronic HIV co-infected patient and its correlation with the immune status.

PubMed

Culasso, Andrés Carlos Alberto; Monzani, María Cecilia; Baré, Patricia; Campos, Rodolfo Hector

2018-05-04

The HCV evolutionary dynamics play a key role in the infection onset, maintenance of chronicity, pathogenicity, and drug resistance variants fixation, and are thought to be one of the main caveats in the development of an effective vaccine. Previous studies in HCV/HIV co-infected patients suggest that a decline in the immune status is related with increases in the HCV intra-host genetic diversity. However, these findings are based on single point sequence diversity measures or coalescence analyses in several virus-host interactions. In this work, we describe the molecular evolution of HCV-E2 region in a single HIV-co-infected patient with two clearly defined immune conditions. The phylogenetic analysis of the HCV-1a sequences from the studied patient showed that he was co-infected with three different viral lineages. These lineages were not evenly detected throughout time. The sequence diversity and coalescence analyses of these lineages suggested the action of different evolutionary patterns in different immune conditions: a slow rate, drift-like process in an immunocompromised condition (low levels of CD4+ T lymphocytes); and a fast rate, variant-switch process in an immunocompetent condition (high levels of CD4+ T lymphocytes). Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Inferring phylogeny and speciation of Gymnosporangium species, and their coevolution with host plants

PubMed Central

Zhao, Peng; Liu, Fang; Li, Ying-Ming; Cai, Lei

2016-01-01

Gymnosporangium species (Pucciniaceae, Pucciniales) cause serious diseases and significant economic losses to apple cultivars. Most of the reported species are heteroecious and complete their life cycles on two different plant hosts belonging to two unrelated genera, i.e. Juniperus and Malus. However, the phylogenetic relationships among Gymnosporangium species and the evolutionary history of Gymnosporangium on its aecial and telial hosts were still undetermined. In this study, we recognized species based on rDNA sequence data by using coalescent method of generalized mixed Yule-coalescent (GMYC) and Poisson Tree Processes (PTP) models. The evolutionary relationships of Gymnosporangium species and their hosts were investigated by comparing the cophylogenetic analyses of Gymnosporangium species with Malus species and Juniperus species, respectively. The concordant results of GMYC and PTP analyses recognized 14 species including 12 known species and two undescribed species. In addition, host alternations of 10 Gymnosporangium species were uncovered by linking the derived sequences between their aecial and telial stages. This study revealed the evolutionary process of Gymnosporangium species, and clarified that the aecial hosts played more important roles than telial hosts in the speciation of Gymnosporangium species. Host switch, losses, duplication and failure to divergence all contributed to the speciation of Gymnosporangium species. PMID:27385413

Hidden Genetic Diversity in an Asexually Reproducing Lichen Forming Fungal Group

PubMed Central

Del-Prado, Ruth; Divakar, Pradeep Kumar; Lumbsch, H. Thorsten; Crespo, Ana M.

2016-01-01

Asexual species with vegetative propagation of both symbiont partners (soredia) in lichens may harbor lower species diversity because they may indeed represent evolutionary dead ends or clones. In this study we aim to critically examine species boundaries in the sorediate lichen forming fungi Parmotrema reticulatum–Parmotrema pseudoreticulatum complex applying coalescent-based approaches and other recently developed DNA-based methods. To this end, we gathered 180 samples from Africa, Asia, Australasia, Europe, North and South America and generated sequences of internal transcribed spacer of nuclear ribosomal DNA (ITS) and DNA replication licensing factor MCM7 (MCM7). The dataset was analysed using different approaches such as traditional phylogeny–maximum likelihood and Bayesian–genetic distances, automatic barcode gap discovery and coalescent-based methods–PTP, GMYC, spedeSTEM and *Beast–in order to test congruence among results. Additionally, the divergence times were also estimated to elucidate diversification events. Delimitations inferred from the different analyses are comparable with only minor differences, and following a conservative approach we propose that the sampled specimens of the P. reticulatum–P. pseudoreticulatum complex belong to at least eight distinct species-level lineages. Seven are currently classified under P. reticulatum and one as P. pseudoreticulatum. In this work we discuss one of only few examples of cryptic species that have so far been found in sorediate reproducing lichen forming fungi. Additionally our estimates suggest a recent origin of the species complex–during the Miocene. Consequently, the wide distribution of several of the cryptic species has to be explained by intercontinental long-distance dispersal events. PMID:27513649

Anchoring quartet-based phylogenetic distances and applications to species tree reconstruction.

PubMed

Sayyari, Erfan; Mirarab, Siavash

2016-11-11

Inferring species trees from gene trees using the coalescent-based summary methods has been the subject of much attention, yet new scalable and accurate methods are needed. We introduce DISTIQUE, a new statistically consistent summary method for inferring species trees from gene trees under the coalescent model. We generalize our results to arbitrary phylogenetic inference problems; we show that two arbitrarily chosen leaves, called anchors, can be used to estimate relative distances between all other pairs of leaves by inferring relevant quartet trees. This results in a family of distance-based tree inference methods, with running times ranging between quadratic to quartic in the number of leaves. We show in simulated studies that DISTIQUE has comparable accuracy to leading coalescent-based summary methods and reduced running times.

Molecular Evolution of Viruses of the Family Filoviridae Based on 97 Whole-Genome Sequences

PubMed Central

Carroll, Serena A.; Towner, Jonathan S.; Sealy, Tara K.; McMullan, Laura K.; Khristova, Marina L.; Burt, Felicity J.; Swanepoel, Robert; Rollin, Pierre E.

2013-01-01

Viruses in the Ebolavirus and Marburgvirus genera (family Filoviridae) have been associated with large outbreaks of hemorrhagic fever in human and nonhuman primates. The first documented cases occurred in primates over 45 years ago, but the amount of virus genetic diversity detected within bat populations, which have recently been identified as potential reservoir hosts, suggests that the filoviruses are much older. Here, detailed Bayesian coalescent phylogenetic analyses are performed on 97 whole-genome sequences, 55 of which are newly reported, to comprehensively examine molecular evolutionary rates and estimate dates of common ancestry for viruses within the family Filoviridae. Molecular evolutionary rates for viruses belonging to different species range from 0.46 × 10−4 nucleotide substitutions/site/year for Sudan ebolavirus to 8.21 × 10−4 nucleotide substitutions/site/year for Reston ebolavirus. Most recent common ancestry can be traced back only within the last 50 years for Reston ebolavirus and Zaire ebolavirus species and suggests that viruses within these species may have undergone recent genetic bottlenecks. Viruses within Marburg marburgvirus and Sudan ebolavirus species can be traced back further and share most recent common ancestors approximately 700 and 850 years before the present, respectively. Examination of the whole family suggests that members of the Filoviridae, including the recently described Lloviu virus, shared a most recent common ancestor approximately 10,000 years ago. These data will be valuable for understanding the evolution of filoviruses in the context of natural history as new reservoir hosts are identified and, further, for determining mechanisms of emergence, pathogenicity, and the ongoing threat to public health. PMID:23255795

Strong and stable geographic differentiation of swamp buffalo maternal and paternal lineages indicates domestication in the China/Indochina border region.

PubMed

Zhang, Yi; Lu, Yongfang; Yindee, Marnoch; Li, Kuan-Yi; Kuo, Hsiao-Yun; Ju, Yu-Ten; Ye, Shaohui; Faruque, Md Omar; Li, Qiang; Wang, Yachun; Cuong, Vu Chi; Pham, Lan Doan; Bouahom, Bounthong; Yang, Bingzhuang; Liang, Xianwei; Cai, Zhihua; Vankan, Dianne; Manatchaiworakul, Wallaya; Kowlim, Nonglid; Duangchantrasiri, Somphot; Wajjwalku, Worawidh; Colenbrander, Ben; Zhang, Yuan; Beerli, Peter; Lenstra, Johannes A; Barker, J Stuart F

2016-04-01

The swamp type of the Asian water buffalo is assumed to have been domesticated by about 4000 years BP, following the introduction of rice cultivation. Previous localizations of the domestication site were based on mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation within China, accounting only for the maternal lineage. We carried out a comprehensive sampling of China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, Nepal and Bangladesh and sequenced the mtDNA Cytochrome b gene and control region and the Y-chromosomal ZFY, SRY and DBY sequences. Swamp buffalo has a higher diversity of both maternal and paternal lineages than river buffalo, with also a remarkable contrast between a weak phylogeographic structure of river buffalo and a strong geographic differentiation of swamp buffalo. The highest diversity of the swamp buffalo maternal lineages was found in south China and north Indochina on both banks of the Mekong River, while the highest diversity in paternal lineages was in the China/Indochina border region. We propose that domestication in this region was later followed by introgressive capture of wild cows west of the Mekong. Migration to the north followed the Yangtze valley as well as a more eastern route, but also involved translocations of both cows and bulls over large distances with a minor influence of river buffaloes in recent decades. Bayesian analyses of various migration models also supported domestication in the China/Indochina border region. Coalescence analysis yielded consistent estimates for the expansion of the major swamp buffalo haplogroups with a credibility interval of 900 to 3900 years BP. The spatial differentiation of mtDNA and Y-chromosomal haplotype distributions indicates a lack of gene flow between established populations that is unprecedented in livestock. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Origin and Population Dynamics of a Novel HIV-1 Subtype G Clade Circulating in Cape Verde and Portugal

PubMed Central

Guimarães, Monick L.; Morgado, Mariza G.; Bello, Gonzalo

2015-01-01

The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype G is the most prevalent and second most prevalent HIV-1 clade in Cape Verde and Portugal, respectively; but there is no information about the origin and spatiotemporal dispersal pattern of this HIV-1 clade circulating in those countries. To this end, we used Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian coalescent-based methods to analyze a collection of 578 HIV-1 subtype G pol sequences sampled throughout Portugal, Cape Verde and 11 other countries from West and Central Africa over a period of 22 years (1992 to 2013). Our analyses indicate that most subtype G sequences from Cape Verde (80%) and Portugal (95%) branched together in a distinct monophyletic cluster (here called GCV-PT). The GCV-PT clade probably emerged after a single migration of the virus out of Central Africa into Cape Verde between the late 1970s and the middle 1980s, followed by a rapid dissemination to Portugal a couple of years later. Reconstruction of the demographic history of the GCV-PT clade circulating in Cape Verde and Portugal indicates that this viral clade displayed an initial phase of exponential growth during the 1980s and 1990s, followed by a decline in growth rate since the early 2000s. Our data also indicate that during the exponential growth phase the GCV-PT clade recombined with a preexisting subtype B viral strain circulating in Portugal, originating the CRF14_BG clade that was later disseminated to Spain and Cape Verde. Historical and recent human population movements between Angola, Cape Verde and Portugal probably played a key role in the origin and dispersal of the GCV-PT and CRF14_BG clades. PMID:25993094

Origin and Population Dynamics of a Novel HIV-1 Subtype G Clade Circulating in Cape Verde and Portugal.

PubMed

de Pina-Araujo, Isabel Inês M; Delatorre, Edson; Guimarães, Monick L; Morgado, Mariza G; Bello, Gonzalo

2015-01-01

The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype G is the most prevalent and second most prevalent HIV-1 clade in Cape Verde and Portugal, respectively; but there is no information about the origin and spatiotemporal dispersal pattern of this HIV-1 clade circulating in those countries. To this end, we used Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian coalescent-based methods to analyze a collection of 578 HIV-1 subtype G pol sequences sampled throughout Portugal, Cape Verde and 11 other countries from West and Central Africa over a period of 22 years (1992 to 2013). Our analyses indicate that most subtype G sequences from Cape Verde (80%) and Portugal (95%) branched together in a distinct monophyletic cluster (here called G(CV-PT)). The G(CV-PT) clade probably emerged after a single migration of the virus out of Central Africa into Cape Verde between the late 1970s and the middle 1980s, followed by a rapid dissemination to Portugal a couple of years later. Reconstruction of the demographic history of the G(CV-PT) clade circulating in Cape Verde and Portugal indicates that this viral clade displayed an initial phase of exponential growth during the 1980s and 1990s, followed by a decline in growth rate since the early 2000s. Our data also indicate that during the exponential growth phase the G(CV-PT) clade recombined with a preexisting subtype B viral strain circulating in Portugal, originating the CRF14_BG clade that was later disseminated to Spain and Cape Verde. Historical and recent human population movements between Angola, Cape Verde and Portugal probably played a key role in the origin and dispersal of the G(CV-PT )and CRF14_BG clades.

Phase segregation due to simultaneous migration and coalescence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Robert H.; Wang, Hua; Hawker, Debra

1994-01-01

Ground-based modeling and experiments have been performed on the interaction and coalescence of drops leading to macroscopic phase separation. The focus has been on gravity-induced motion, with research also initiated on thermocapillary motion of drops. The drop size distribution initially shifts toward larger drops with time due to coalescence, and then a back towards smaller drops due to the larger preferentially settling out. As a consequence, the phase separation rate initially increases with time and then decreases.

Identifying food deserts and swamps based on relative healthy food access: a spatio-temporal Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Luan, Hui; Law, Jane; Quick, Matthew

2015-12-30

Obesity and other adverse health outcomes are influenced by individual- and neighbourhood-scale risk factors, including the food environment. At the small-area scale, past research has analysed spatial patterns of food environments for one time period, overlooking how food environments change over time. Further, past research has infrequently analysed relative healthy food access (RHFA), a measure that is more representative of food purchasing and consumption behaviours than absolute outlet density. This research applies a Bayesian hierarchical model to analyse the spatio-temporal patterns of RHFA in the Region of Waterloo, Canada, from 2011 to 2014 at the small-area level. RHFA is calculated as the proportion of healthy food outlets (healthy outlets/healthy + unhealthy outlets) within 4-km from each small-area. This model measures spatial autocorrelation of RHFA, temporal trend of RHFA for the study region, and spatio-temporal trends of RHFA for small-areas. For the study region, a significant decreasing trend in RHFA is observed (-0.024), suggesting that food swamps have become more prevalent during the study period. For small-areas, significant decreasing temporal trends in RHFA were observed for all small-areas. Specific small-areas located in south Waterloo, north Kitchener, and southeast Cambridge exhibited the steepest decreasing spatio-temporal trends and are classified as spatio-temporal food swamps. This research demonstrates a Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling approach to analyse RHFA at the small-area scale. Results suggest that food swamps are more prevalent than food deserts in the Region of Waterloo. Analysing spatio-temporal trends of RHFA improves understanding of local food environment, highlighting specific small-areas where policies should be targeted to increase RHFA and reduce risk factors of adverse health outcomes such as obesity.

Cross-validation to select Bayesian hierarchical models in phylogenetics.

PubMed

Duchêne, Sebastián; Duchêne, David A; Di Giallonardo, Francesca; Eden, John-Sebastian; Geoghegan, Jemma L; Holt, Kathryn E; Ho, Simon Y W; Holmes, Edward C

2016-05-26

Recent developments in Bayesian phylogenetic models have increased the range of inferences that can be drawn from molecular sequence data. Accordingly, model selection has become an important component of phylogenetic analysis. Methods of model selection generally consider the likelihood of the data under the model in question. In the context of Bayesian phylogenetics, the most common approach involves estimating the marginal likelihood, which is typically done by integrating the likelihood across model parameters, weighted by the prior. Although this method is accurate, it is sensitive to the presence of improper priors. We explored an alternative approach based on cross-validation that is widely used in evolutionary analysis. This involves comparing models according to their predictive performance. We analysed simulated data and a range of viral and bacterial data sets using a cross-validation approach to compare a variety of molecular clock and demographic models. Our results show that cross-validation can be effective in distinguishing between strict- and relaxed-clock models and in identifying demographic models that allow growth in population size over time. In most of our empirical data analyses, the model selected using cross-validation was able to match that selected using marginal-likelihood estimation. The accuracy of cross-validation appears to improve with longer sequence data, particularly when distinguishing between relaxed-clock models. Cross-validation is a useful method for Bayesian phylogenetic model selection. This method can be readily implemented even when considering complex models where selecting an appropriate prior for all parameters may be difficult.

Spatial quantile regression using INLA with applications to childhood overweight in Malawi.

PubMed

Mtambo, Owen P L; Masangwi, Salule J; Kazembe, Lawrence N M

2015-04-01

Analyses of childhood overweight have mainly used mean regression. However, using quantile regression is more appropriate as it provides flexibility to analyse the determinants of overweight corresponding to quantiles of interest. The main objective of this study was to fit a Bayesian additive quantile regression model with structured spatial effects for childhood overweight in Malawi using the 2010 Malawi DHS data. Inference was fully Bayesian using R-INLA package. The significant determinants of childhood overweight ranged from socio-demographic factors such as type of residence to child and maternal factors such as child age and maternal BMI. We observed significant positive structured spatial effects on childhood overweight in some districts of Malawi. We recommended that the childhood malnutrition policy makers should consider timely interventions based on risk factors as identified in this paper including spatial targets of interventions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ancestral sequence reconstruction in primate mitochondrial DNA: compositional bias and effect on functional inference.

PubMed

Krishnan, Neeraja M; Seligmann, Hervé; Stewart, Caro-Beth; De Koning, A P Jason; Pollock, David D

2004-10-01

Reconstruction of ancestral DNA and amino acid sequences is an important means of inferring information about past evolutionary events. Such reconstructions suggest changes in molecular function and evolutionary processes over the course of evolution and are used to infer adaptation and convergence. Maximum likelihood (ML) is generally thought to provide relatively accurate reconstructed sequences compared to parsimony, but both methods lead to the inference of multiple directional changes in nucleotide frequencies in primate mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). To better understand this surprising result, as well as to better understand how parsimony and ML differ, we constructed a series of computationally simple "conditional pathway" methods that differed in the number of substitutions allowed per site along each branch, and we also evaluated the entire Bayesian posterior frequency distribution of reconstructed ancestral states. We analyzed primate mitochondrial cytochrome b (Cyt-b) and cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) genes and found that ML reconstructs ancestral frequencies that are often more different from tip sequences than are parsimony reconstructions. In contrast, frequency reconstructions based on the posterior ensemble more closely resemble extant nucleotide frequencies. Simulations indicate that these differences in ancestral sequence inference are probably due to deterministic bias caused by high uncertainty in the optimization-based ancestral reconstruction methods (parsimony, ML, Bayesian maximum a posteriori). In contrast, ancestral nucleotide frequencies based on an average of the Bayesian set of credible ancestral sequences are much less biased. The methods involving simpler conditional pathway calculations have slightly reduced likelihood values compared to full likelihood calculations, but they can provide fairly unbiased nucleotide reconstructions and may be useful in more complex phylogenetic analyses than considered here due to their speed and flexibility. To determine whether biased reconstructions using optimization methods might affect inferences of functional properties, ancestral primate mitochondrial tRNA sequences were inferred and helix-forming propensities for conserved pairs were evaluated in silico. For ambiguously reconstructed nucleotides at sites with high base composition variability, ancestral tRNA sequences from Bayesian analyses were more compatible with canonical base pairing than were those inferred by other methods. Thus, nucleotide bias in reconstructed sequences apparently can lead to serious bias and inaccuracies in functional predictions.

Marangoni-flow-induced partial coalescence of a droplet on a liquid/air interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Kai; Zhang, Peng; Che, Zhizhao; Wang, Tianyou

2018-02-01

The coalescence of a droplet and a liquid/air interface of lower surface tension was numerically studied by using the lattice Boltzmann phase-field method. The experimental phenomenon of droplet ejection observed by Blanchette et al. [Phys. Fluids 21, 072107 (2009), 10.1063/1.3177339] at sufficiently large surface tension differences was successfully reproduced for the first time. Furthermore, the emergence, disappearance, and re-emergence of "partial coalescence" with increasing surface tension difference was observed and explained. The re-emergence of partial coalescence under large surface tension differences is caused by the remarkable lifting motion of the Marangoni flow, which significantly retards the vertical collapse. Two different modes of partial coalescence were identified by the simulation, namely peak injection occurs at lower Ohnesorge numbers and bottom pinch-off at higher Ohnesorge numbers. By comparing the characteristic timescales of the upward Marangoni flow with that of the downward flow driven by capillary pressure, a criterion for the transition from partial to total coalescence was derived based on scaling analysis and numerically validated.

Gravitational Waves from Coalescing Binary Black Holes: Theoretical and Experimental Challenges

ScienceCinema

Damour, Thibault

2018-05-22

A network of ground-based interferometric gravitational wave detectors (LIGO/VIRGO/GEO/...) is currently taking data near its planned sensitivity. Coalescing black hole binaries are among the most promising, and most exciting, gravitational wave sources for these detectors. The talk will review the theoretical and experimental challenges that must be met in order to successfully detect gravitational waves from coalescing black hole binaries, and to be able to reliably measure the physical parameters of the source (masses, spins, ...).

Void growth and coalescence in irradiated copper under deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrioz, P. O.; Hure, J.; Tanguy, B.

2018-04-01

A decrease of fracture toughness of irradiated materials is usually observed, as reported for austenitic stainless steels in Light Water Reactors (LWRs) or copper alloys for fusion applications. For a wide range of applications (e.g. structural steels irradiated at low homologous temperature), void growth and coalescence fracture mechanism has been shown to be still predominant. As a consequence, a comprehensive study of the effects of irradiation-induced hardening mechanisms on void growth and coalescence in irradiated materials is required. The effects of irradiation on ductile fracture mechanisms - void growth to coalescence - are assessed in this study based on model experiments. Pure copper thin tensile samples have been irradiated with protons up to 0.01 dpa. Micron-scale holes drilled through the thickness of these samples subjected to uniaxial loading conditions allow a detailed description of void growth and coalescence. In this study, experimental data show that physical mechanisms of micron-scale void growth and coalescence are similar between the unirradiated and irradiated copper. However, an acceleration of void growth is observed in the later case, resulting in earlier coalescence, which is consistent with the decrease of fracture toughness reported in irradiated materials. These results are qualitatively reproduced with numerical simulations accounting for irradiation macroscopic hardening and decrease of strain-hardening capability.

Rational hypocrisy: a Bayesian analysis based on informal argumentation and slippery slopes.

PubMed

Rai, Tage S; Holyoak, Keith J

2014-01-01

Moral hypocrisy is typically viewed as an ethical accusation: Someone is applying different moral standards to essentially identical cases, dishonestly claiming that one action is acceptable while otherwise equivalent actions are not. We suggest that in some instances the apparent logical inconsistency stems from different evaluations of a weak argument, rather than dishonesty per se. Extending Corner, Hahn, and Oaksford's (2006) analysis of slippery slope arguments, we develop a Bayesian framework in which accusations of hypocrisy depend on inferences of shared category membership between proposed actions and previous standards, based on prior probabilities that inform the strength of competing hypotheses. Across three experiments, we demonstrate that inferences of hypocrisy increase as perceptions of the likelihood of shared category membership between precedent cases and current cases increase, that these inferences follow established principles of category induction, and that the presence of self-serving motives increases inferences of hypocrisy independent of changes in the actions themselves. Taken together, these results demonstrate that Bayesian analyses of weak arguments may have implications for assessing moral reasoning. © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Empirical Bayes estimation of proportions with application to cowbird parasitism rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Hahn, D.C.

1996-01-01

Bayesian models provide a structure for studying collections of parameters such as are considered in the investigation of communities, ecosystems, and landscapes. This structure allows for improved estimation of individual parameters, by considering them in the context of a group of related parameters. Individual estimates are differentially adjusted toward an overall mean, with the magnitude of their adjustment based on their precision. Consequently, Bayesian estimation allows for a more credible identification of extreme values in a collection of estimates. Bayesian models regard individual parameters as values sampled from a specified probability distribution, called a prior. The requirement that the prior be known is often regarded as an unattractive feature of Bayesian analysis and may be the reason why Bayesian analyses are not frequently applied in ecological studies. Empirical Bayes methods provide an alternative approach that incorporates the structural advantages of Bayesian models while requiring a less stringent specification of prior knowledge. Rather than requiring that the prior distribution be known, empirical Bayes methods require only that it be in a certain family of distributions, indexed by hyperparameters that can be estimated from the available data. This structure is of interest per se, in addition to its value in allowing for improved estimation of individual parameters; for example, hypotheses regarding the existence of distinct subgroups in a collection of parameters can be considered under the empirical Bayes framework by allowing the hyperparameters to vary among subgroups. Though empirical Bayes methods have been applied in a variety of contexts, they have received little attention in the ecological literature. We describe the empirical Bayes approach in application to estimation of proportions, using data obtained in a community-wide study of cowbird parasitism rates for illustration. Since observed proportions based on small sample sizes are heavily adjusted toward the mean, extreme values among empirical Bayes estimates identify those species for which there is the greatest evidence of extreme parasitism rates. Applying a subgroup analysis to our data on cowbird parasitism rates, we conclude that parasitism rates for Neotropical Migrants as a group are no greater than those of Resident/Short-distance Migrant species in this forest community. Our data and analyses demonstrate that the parasitism rates for certain Neotropical Migrant species are remarkably low (Wood Thrush and Rose-breasted Grosbeak) while those for others are remarkably high (Ovenbird and Red-eyed Vireo).

Bayesian correction for covariate measurement error: A frequentist evaluation and comparison with regression calibration.

PubMed

Bartlett, Jonathan W; Keogh, Ruth H

2018-06-01

Bayesian approaches for handling covariate measurement error are well established and yet arguably are still relatively little used by researchers. For some this is likely due to unfamiliarity or disagreement with the Bayesian inferential paradigm. For others a contributory factor is the inability of standard statistical packages to perform such Bayesian analyses. In this paper, we first give an overview of the Bayesian approach to handling covariate measurement error, and contrast it with regression calibration, arguably the most commonly adopted approach. We then argue why the Bayesian approach has a number of statistical advantages compared to regression calibration and demonstrate that implementing the Bayesian approach is usually quite feasible for the analyst. Next, we describe the closely related maximum likelihood and multiple imputation approaches and explain why we believe the Bayesian approach to generally be preferable. We then empirically compare the frequentist properties of regression calibration and the Bayesian approach through simulation studies. The flexibility of the Bayesian approach to handle both measurement error and missing data is then illustrated through an analysis of data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

Multilocus genetic diversity and historical biogeography of the endemic wall lizard from Ibiza and Formentera, Podarcis pityusensis (Squamata: Lacertidae).

PubMed

Rodríguez, V; Brown, R P; Terrasa, B; Pérez-Mellado, V; Castro, J A; Picornell, A; Ramon, M M

2013-10-01

Two monophyletic sister species of wall lizards inhabit the two main groups of Balearic Islands: Podarcis lilfordi from islets and small islands around Mallorca and Menorca and Podarcis pityusensis from Ibiza, Formentera and associated islets. Genetic diversity within the endangered P. lilfordi has been well characterized, but P. pityusensis has not been studied in depth. Here, 2430 bp of mtDNA and 15 microsatellite loci were analysed from P. pityusensis populations from across its natural range. Two main genetic groupings were identified, although geographical structuring differed slightly between the mtDNA and the nuclear loci. In general, individuals from islets/islands adjacent to the main island of Ibiza were genetically distinct from those from Formentera and the associated Freus islands for both mtDNA and the nuclear loci. However, most individuals from the island of Ibiza were grouped with neighbouring islets/islands for nuclear loci, but with Formentera and Freus islands for the mitochondrial locus. A time-calibrated Bayesian tree was constructed for the principal mitochondrial lineages within the Balearics, using the multispecies coalescent model, and provided statistical support for divergence of the two main P. pityusensis lineages 0.111-0.295 Ma. This suggests a mid-late Pleistocene intraspecific divergence, compared with an early Pleistocene divergence in P. lilfordi, and postdates some major increases in sea level between 0.4 and 0.6 Ma, which may have flooded Formentera. The program IMa2 provided a posterior divergence time of 0.089-0.221 Ma, which was similar to the multispecies coalescent tree estimate. More significantly, it indicated low but asymmetric effective gene copy migration rates, with higher migration from Formentera to Ibiza populations. Our findings suggest that much of the present-day diversity may have originated from a late Pleistocene colonization of one island group from the other, followed by allopatric divergence of these populations. Subsequent gene flow between these insular groups seems likely to be explained by recent human introductions. Two evolutionary significant units can be defined for P. pityusensis but these units would need to exclude the populations that have been the subjects of recent admixture. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Gene flow and hybridization between numerically imbalanced populations of two duck species on the subantarctic island of South Georgia.

PubMed

McCracken, Kevin G; Wilson, Robert E; Martin, Anthony R

2013-01-01

Hybridization is common between species of animals, particularly in waterfowl (Anatidae). One factor shown to promote hybridization is restricted mate choice, which can occur when 2 species occur in sympatry but one is rare. According to the Hubbs principle, or "desperation hypothesis," the rarer species is more likely to mate with heterospecifics. We report the second of 2 independent examples of hybridization between 2 species of ducks inhabiting island ecosystems in the Subantarctic and South Atlantic Ocean. Yellow-billed pintails (Anas georgica) and speckled teal (Anas flavirostris) are abundant in continental South America, where they are sympatric and coexist in mixed flocks. But on South Georgia, an isolated island in the Subantarctic, the pintail population of approximately 6000 pairs outnumbers a small breeding population of speckled teal 300∶1. Using 6 genetic loci (mtDNA and 5 nuclear introns) and Bayesian assignment tests coupled with coalescent analyses, we identified hybrid-origin speckled teal alleles in 2 pintails on South Georgia. While it is unclear whether introgression has also occurred into the speckled teal population, our data suggest that this hybridization was not a recent event, but occurred some time ago. We also failed to identify unequivocal evidence of introgression in a much larger sample of pintails and speckled teal from Argentina using a 3-population "Isolation-with-Migration" coalescent analysis. Combined with parallel findings of hybridization between these same 2 duck species in the Falkland Islands, where population ratios are reversed and pintails are outnumbered by speckled teal 1:10, our results provide further support for the desperation hypothesis, which predicts that scarcity in one population and abundance of another will often lead to hybridization. While the South Georgia pintail population appears to be thriving, it's possible that low density of conspecific mates and inverse density dependence (Allee effect) may be one factor limiting the reproductive output of the speckled teal population, and this situation may persist unless speckled teal increase in abundance on South Georgia.

Bayesian molecular dating: opening up the black box.

PubMed

Bromham, Lindell; Duchêne, Sebastián; Hua, Xia; Ritchie, Andrew M; Duchêne, David A; Ho, Simon Y W

2018-05-01

Molecular dating analyses allow evolutionary timescales to be estimated from genetic data, offering an unprecedented capacity for investigating the evolutionary past of all species. These methods require us to make assumptions about the relationship between genetic change and evolutionary time, often referred to as a 'molecular clock'. Although initially regarded with scepticism, molecular dating has now been adopted in many areas of biology. This broad uptake has been due partly to the development of Bayesian methods that allow complex aspects of molecular evolution, such as variation in rates of change across lineages, to be taken into account. But in order to do this, Bayesian dating methods rely on a range of assumptions about the evolutionary process, which vary in their degree of biological realism and empirical support. These assumptions can have substantial impacts on the estimates produced by molecular dating analyses. The aim of this review is to open the 'black box' of Bayesian molecular dating and have a look at the machinery inside. We explain the components of these dating methods, the important decisions that researchers must make in their analyses, and the factors that need to be considered when interpreting results. We illustrate the effects that the choices of different models and priors can have on the outcome of the analysis, and suggest ways to explore these impacts. We describe some major research directions that may improve the reliability of Bayesian dating. The goal of our review is to help researchers to make informed choices when using Bayesian phylogenetic methods to estimate evolutionary rates and timescales. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty.

PubMed

de Villemereuil, Pierre; Wells, Jessie A; Edwards, Robert D; Blomberg, Simon P

2012-06-28

Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a) phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b) uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow) and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small). Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible general purpose tool for phylogenetic comparative analyses, particularly for modelling in the face of phylogenetic uncertainty and accounting for measurement error or individual variation in explanatory variables. Code for all models is provided in the BUGS model description language.

Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a) phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b) uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow) and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small). Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible general purpose tool for phylogenetic comparative analyses, particularly for modelling in the face of phylogenetic uncertainty and accounting for measurement error or individual variation in explanatory variables. Code for all models is provided in the BUGS model description language. PMID:22741602

A Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis to Synthesize the Influence of Contexts of Scaffolding Use on Cognitive Outcomes in STEM Education.

PubMed

Belland, Brian R; Walker, Andrew E; Kim, Nam Ju

2017-12-01

Computer-based scaffolding provides temporary support that enables students to participate in and become more proficient at complex skills like problem solving, argumentation, and evaluation. While meta-analyses have addressed between-subject differences on cognitive outcomes resulting from scaffolding, none has addressed within-subject gains. This leaves much quantitative scaffolding literature not covered by existing meta-analyses. To address this gap, this study used Bayesian network meta-analysis to synthesize within-subjects (pre-post) differences resulting from scaffolding in 56 studies. We generated the posterior distribution using 20,000 Markov Chain Monte Carlo samples. Scaffolding has a consistently strong effect across student populations, STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) disciplines, and assessment levels, and a strong effect when used with most problem-centered instructional models (exception: inquiry-based learning and modeling visualization) and educational levels (exception: secondary education). Results also indicate some promising areas for future scaffolding research, including scaffolding among students with learning disabilities, for whom the effect size was particularly large (ḡ = 3.13).

A Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis to Synthesize the Influence of Contexts of Scaffolding Use on Cognitive Outcomes in STEM Education

PubMed Central

Belland, Brian R.; Walker, Andrew E.; Kim, Nam Ju

2017-01-01

Computer-based scaffolding provides temporary support that enables students to participate in and become more proficient at complex skills like problem solving, argumentation, and evaluation. While meta-analyses have addressed between-subject differences on cognitive outcomes resulting from scaffolding, none has addressed within-subject gains. This leaves much quantitative scaffolding literature not covered by existing meta-analyses. To address this gap, this study used Bayesian network meta-analysis to synthesize within-subjects (pre–post) differences resulting from scaffolding in 56 studies. We generated the posterior distribution using 20,000 Markov Chain Monte Carlo samples. Scaffolding has a consistently strong effect across student populations, STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) disciplines, and assessment levels, and a strong effect when used with most problem-centered instructional models (exception: inquiry-based learning and modeling visualization) and educational levels (exception: secondary education). Results also indicate some promising areas for future scaffolding research, including scaffolding among students with learning disabilities, for whom the effect size was particularly large (ḡ = 3.13). PMID:29200508

Diagnostic accuracy of a bayesian latent group analysis for the detection of malingering-related poor effort.

PubMed

Ortega, Alonso; Labrenz, Stephan; Markowitsch, Hans J; Piefke, Martina

2013-01-01

In the last decade, different statistical techniques have been introduced to improve assessment of malingering-related poor effort. In this context, we have recently shown preliminary evidence that a Bayesian latent group model may help to optimize classification accuracy using a simulation research design. In the present study, we conducted two analyses. Firstly, we evaluated how accurately this Bayesian approach can distinguish between participants answering in an honest way (honest response group) and participants feigning cognitive impairment (experimental malingering group). Secondly, we tested the accuracy of our model in the differentiation between patients who had real cognitive deficits (cognitively impaired group) and participants who belonged to the experimental malingering group. All Bayesian analyses were conducted using the raw scores of a visual recognition forced-choice task (2AFC), the Test of Memory Malingering (TOMM, Trial 2), and the Word Memory Test (WMT, primary effort subtests). The first analysis showed 100% accuracy for the Bayesian model in distinguishing participants of both groups with all effort measures. The second analysis showed outstanding overall accuracy of the Bayesian model when estimates were obtained from the 2AFC and the TOMM raw scores. Diagnostic accuracy of the Bayesian model diminished when using the WMT total raw scores. Despite, overall diagnostic accuracy can still be considered excellent. The most plausible explanation for this decrement is the low performance in verbal recognition and fluency tasks of some patients of the cognitively impaired group. Additionally, the Bayesian model provides individual estimates, p(zi |D), of examinees' effort levels. In conclusion, both high classification accuracy levels and Bayesian individual estimates of effort may be very useful for clinicians when assessing for effort in medico-legal settings.

Trypanosoma janseni n. sp. (Trypanosomatida: Trypanosomatidae) isolated from Didelphis aurita (Mammalia: Didelphidae) in the Atlantic Rainforest of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: integrative taxonomy and phylogeography within the Trypanosoma cruzi clade.

PubMed

Lopes, Camila Madeira Tavares; Menna-Barreto, Rubem Figueiredo Sadok; Pavan, Márcio Galvão; Pereira, Mirian Cláudia De Souza; Roque, André Luiz R

2018-01-01

Didelphis spp. are a South American marsupial species that are among the most ancient hosts for the Trypanosoma spp. We characterise a new species (Trypanosoma janseni n. sp.) isolated from the spleen and liver tissues of Didelphis aurita in the Atlantic Rainforest of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The parasites were isolated and a growth curve was performed in NNN and Schneider's media containing 10% foetal bovine serum. Parasite morphology was evaluated via light microscopy on Giemsa-stained culture smears, as well as scanning and transmission electron microscopy. Molecular taxonomy was based on a partial region (737-bp) of the small subunit (18S) ribosomal RNA gene and 708 bp of the nuclear marker, glycosomal glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (gGAPDH) genes. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference methods were used to perform a species coalescent analysis and to generate individual and concatenated gene trees. Divergence times among species that belong to the T. cruzi clade were also inferred. In vitro growth curves demonstrated a very short log phase, achieving a maximum growth rate at day 3 followed by a sharp decline. Only epimastigote forms were observed under light and scanning microscopy. Transmission electron microscopy analysis showed structures typical to Trypanosoma spp., except one structure that presented as single-membraned, usually grouped in stacks of three or four. Phylogeography analyses confirmed the distinct species status of T. janseni n. sp. within the T. cruzi clade. Trypanosoma janseni n. sp. clusters with T. wauwau in a well-supported clade, which is exclusive and monophyletic. The separation of the South American T. wauwau + T. janseni coincides with the separation of the Southern Super Continent. This clade is a sister group of the trypanosomes found in Australian marsupials and its discovery sheds light on the initial diversification process based on what we currently know about the T. cruzi clade.

Measuring neutron star tidal deformability with Advanced LIGO: A Bayesian analysis of neutron star-black hole binary observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Prayush; Pürrer, Michael; Pfeiffer, Harald P.

2017-02-01

The pioneering discovery of gravitational waves (GWs) by Advanced LIGO has ushered us into an era of observational GW astrophysics. Compact binaries remain the primary target sources for GW observation, of which neutron star-black hole (NSBH) binaries form an important subset. GWs from NSBH sources carry signatures of (a) the tidal distortion of the neutron star by its companion black hole during inspiral, and (b) its potential tidal disruption near merger. In this paper, we present a Bayesian study of the measurability of neutron star tidal deformability ΛNS∝(R /M )NS5 using observation(s) of inspiral-merger GW signals from disruptive NSBH coalescences, taking into account the crucial effect of black hole spins. First, we find that if nontidal templates are used to estimate source parameters for an NSBH signal, the bias introduced in the estimation of nontidal physical parameters will only be significant for loud signals with signal-to-noise ratios greater than ≃30 . For similarly loud signals, we also find that we can begin to put interesting constraints on ΛNS (factor of 1-2) with individual observations. Next, we study how a population of realistic NSBH detections will improve our measurement of neutron star tidal deformability. For an astrophysically likely population of disruptive NSBH coalescences, we find that 20-35 events are sufficient to constrain ΛNS within ±25 %- 50 % , depending on the neutron star equation of state. For these calculations we assume that LIGO will detect black holes with masses within the astrophysical mass gap. In case the mass gap remains preserved in NSBHs detected by LIGO, we estimate that approximately 25% additional detections will furnish comparable ΛNS measurement accuracy. In both cases, we find that it is the loudest 5-10 events that provide most of the tidal information, and not the combination of tens of low-SNR events, thereby facilitating targeted numerical-GR follow-ups of NSBHs. We find these results encouraging, and recommend that an effort to measure ΛNS be planned for upcoming NSBH observations with the LIGO-Virgo instruments.

Improving phylogenetic analyses by incorporating additional information from genetic sequence databases.

PubMed

Liang, Li-Jung; Weiss, Robert E; Redelings, Benjamin; Suchard, Marc A

2009-10-01

Statistical analyses of phylogenetic data culminate in uncertain estimates of underlying model parameters. Lack of additional data hinders the ability to reduce this uncertainty, as the original phylogenetic dataset is often complete, containing the entire gene or genome information available for the given set of taxa. Informative priors in a Bayesian analysis can reduce posterior uncertainty; however, publicly available phylogenetic software specifies vague priors for model parameters by default. We build objective and informative priors using hierarchical random effect models that combine additional datasets whose parameters are not of direct interest but are similar to the analysis of interest. We propose principled statistical methods that permit more precise parameter estimates in phylogenetic analyses by creating informative priors for parameters of interest. Using additional sequence datasets from our lab or public databases, we construct a fully Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical model to combine datasets. A dynamic iteratively reweighted Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm conveniently recycles posterior samples from the individual analyses. We demonstrate the value of our approach by examining the insertion-deletion (indel) process in the enolase gene across the Tree of Life using the phylogenetic software BALI-PHY; we incorporate prior information about indels from 82 curated alignments downloaded from the BAliBASE database.

Sediment classification using neural networks: An example from the site-U1344A of IODP Expedition 323 in the Bering Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ojha, Maheswar; Maiti, Saumen

2016-03-01

A novel approach based on the concept of Bayesian neural network (BNN) has been implemented for classifying sediment boundaries using downhole log data obtained during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 323 in the Bering Sea slope region. The Bayesian framework in conjunction with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)/hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) learning paradigm has been applied to constrain the lithology boundaries using density, density porosity, gamma ray, sonic P-wave velocity and electrical resistivity at the Hole U1344A. We have demonstrated the effectiveness of our supervised classification methodology by comparing our findings with a conventional neural network and a Bayesian neural network optimized by scaled conjugate gradient method (SCG), and tested the robustness of the algorithm in the presence of red noise in the data. The Bayesian results based on the HMC algorithm (BNN.HMC) resolve detailed finer structures at certain depths in addition to main lithology such as silty clay, diatom clayey silt and sandy silt. Our method also recovers the lithology information from a depth ranging between 615 and 655 m Wireline log Matched depth below Sea Floor of no core recovery zone. Our analyses demonstrate that the BNN based approach renders robust means for the classification of complex lithology successions at the Hole U1344A, which could be very useful for other studies and understanding the oceanic crustal inhomogeneity and structural discontinuities.

Bayesian statistics in medicine: a 25 year review.

PubMed

Ashby, Deborah

2006-11-15

This review examines the state of Bayesian thinking as Statistics in Medicine was launched in 1982, reflecting particularly on its applicability and uses in medical research. It then looks at each subsequent five-year epoch, with a focus on papers appearing in Statistics in Medicine, putting these in the context of major developments in Bayesian thinking and computation with reference to important books, landmark meetings and seminal papers. It charts the growth of Bayesian statistics as it is applied to medicine and makes predictions for the future. From sparse beginnings, where Bayesian statistics was barely mentioned, Bayesian statistics has now permeated all the major areas of medical statistics, including clinical trials, epidemiology, meta-analyses and evidence synthesis, spatial modelling, longitudinal modelling, survival modelling, molecular genetics and decision-making in respect of new technologies.

High endemism at cave entrances: a case study of spiders of the genus Uthina

PubMed Central

Yao, Zhiyuan; Dong, Tingting; Zheng, Guo; Fu, Jinzhong; Li, Shuqiang

2016-01-01

Endemism, which is typically high on islands and in caves, has rarely been studied in the cave entrance ecotone. We investigated the endemism of the spider genus Uthina at cave entrances. Totally 212 spiders were sampled from 46 localities, from Seychelles across Southeast Asia to Fiji. They mostly occur at cave entrances but occasionally appear at various epigean environments. Phylogenetic analysis of DNA sequence data from COI and 28S genes suggested that Uthina was grouped into 13 well-supported clades. We used three methods, the Bayesian Poisson Tree Processes (bPTP) model, the Bayesian Phylogenetics and Phylogeography (BPP) method, and the general mixed Yule coalescent (GMYC) model, to investigate species boundaries. Both bPTP and BPP identified the 13 clades as 13 separate species, while GMYC identified 19 species. Furthermore, our results revealed high endemism at cave entrances. Of the 13 provisional species, twelve (one known and eleven new) are endemic to one or a cluster of caves, and all of them occurred only at cave entrances except for one population of one species. The only widely distributed species, U. luzonica, mostly occurred in epigean environments while three populations were found at cave entrances. Additionally, eleven new species of the genus are described. PMID:27775081

An introduction to using Bayesian linear regression with clinical data.

PubMed

Baldwin, Scott A; Larson, Michael J

2017-11-01

Statistical training psychology focuses on frequentist methods. Bayesian methods are an alternative to standard frequentist methods. This article provides researchers with an introduction to fundamental ideas in Bayesian modeling. We use data from an electroencephalogram (EEG) and anxiety study to illustrate Bayesian models. Specifically, the models examine the relationship between error-related negativity (ERN), a particular event-related potential, and trait anxiety. Methodological topics covered include: how to set up a regression model in a Bayesian framework, specifying priors, examining convergence of the model, visualizing and interpreting posterior distributions, interval estimates, expected and predicted values, and model comparison tools. We also discuss situations where Bayesian methods can outperform frequentist methods as well has how to specify more complicated regression models. Finally, we conclude with recommendations about reporting guidelines for those using Bayesian methods in their own research. We provide data and R code for replicating our analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How Much Can We Learn from a Single Chromatographic Experiment? A Bayesian Perspective.

PubMed

Wiczling, Paweł; Kaliszan, Roman

2016-01-05

In this work, we proposed and investigated a Bayesian inference procedure to find the desired chromatographic conditions based on known analyte properties (lipophilicity, pKa, and polar surface area) using one preliminary experiment. A previously developed nonlinear mixed effect model was used to specify the prior information about a new analyte with known physicochemical properties. Further, the prior (no preliminary data) and posterior predictive distribution (prior + one experiment) were determined sequentially to search towards the desired separation. The following isocratic high-performance reversed-phase liquid chromatographic conditions were sought: (1) retention time of a single analyte within the range of 4-6 min and (2) baseline separation of two analytes with retention times within the range of 4-10 min. The empirical posterior Bayesian distribution of parameters was estimated using the "slice sampling" Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm implemented in Matlab. The simulations with artificial analytes and experimental data of ketoprofen and papaverine were used to test the proposed methodology. The simulation experiment showed that for a single and two randomly selected analytes, there is 97% and 74% probability of obtaining a successful chromatogram using none or one preliminary experiment. The desired separation for ketoprofen and papaverine was established based on a single experiment. It was confirmed that the search for a desired separation rarely requires a large number of chromatographic analyses at least for a simple optimization problem. The proposed Bayesian-based optimization scheme is a powerful method of finding a desired chromatographic separation based on a small number of preliminary experiments.

Detecting the transition to failure: wavelet analysis of multi-scale crack patterns at different confining pressures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizzo, R. E.; Healy, D.; Farrell, N. J.

2017-12-01

Numerous laboratory brittle deformation experiments have shown that a rapid transition exists in the behaviour of porous materials under stress: at a certain point, early formed tensile cracks interact and coalesce into a `single' narrow zone, the shear plane, rather than remaining distributed throughout the material. In this work, we present and apply a novel image processing tool which is able to quantify this transition between distributed (`stable') damage accumulation and localised (`unstable') deformation, in terms of size, density, and orientation of cracks at the point of failure. Our technique, based on a two-dimensional (2D) continuous Morlet wavelet analysis, can recognise, extract and visually separate the multi-scale changes occurring in the fracture network during the deformation process. We have analysed high-resolution SEM-BSE images of thin sections of Hopeman Sandstone (Scotland, UK) taken from core plugs deformed under triaxial conditions, with increasing confining pressure. Through this analysis, we can determine the relationship between the initial orientation of tensile microcracks and the final geometry of the through-going shear fault, exploiting the total areal coverage of the analysed image. In addition, by comparing patterns of fractures in thin sections derived from triaxial (σ1>σ2=σ3=Pc) laboratory experiments conducted at different confining pressures (Pc), we can quantitatively explore the relationship between the observed geometry and the inferred mechanical processes. The methodology presented here can have important implications for larger-scale mechanical problems related to major fault propagation. Just as a core plug scale fault localises through extension and coalescence of microcracks, larger faults also grow by extension and coalescence of segments in a multi-scale process by which microscopic cracks can ultimately lead to macroscopic faulting. Consequently, wavelet analysis represents a useful tool for fracture pattern recognition, applicable to the detection of the transitions occurring at the time of catastrophic rupture.

Do Bayesian adaptive trials offer advantages for comparative effectiveness research? Protocol for the RE-ADAPT study

PubMed Central

Luce, Bryan R; Broglio, Kristine R; Ishak, K Jack; Mullins, C Daniel; Vanness, David J; Fleurence, Rachael; Saunders, Elijah; Davis, Barry R

2013-01-01

Background Randomized clinical trials, particularly for comparative effectiveness research (CER), are frequently criticized for being overly restrictive or untimely for health-care decision making. Purpose Our prospectively designed REsearch in ADAptive methods for Pragmatic Trials (RE-ADAPT) study is a ‘proof of concept’ to stimulate investment in Bayesian adaptive designs for future CER trials. Methods We will assess whether Bayesian adaptive designs offer potential efficiencies in CER by simulating a re-execution of the Antihypertensive and Lipid Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial (ALLHAT) study using actual data from ALLHAT. Results We prospectively define seven alternate designs consisting of various combinations of arm dropping, adaptive randomization, and early stopping and describe how these designs will be compared to the original ALLHAT design. We identify the one particular design that would have been executed, which incorporates early stopping and information-based adaptive randomization. Limitations While the simulation realistically emulates patient enrollment, interim analyses, and adaptive changes to design, it cannot incorporate key features like the involvement of data monitoring committee in making decisions about adaptive changes. Conclusion This article describes our analytic approach for RE-ADAPT. The next stage of the project is to conduct the re-execution analyses using the seven prespecified designs and the original ALLHAT data. PMID:23983160

Use of Principal Components Analysis and Kriging to Predict Groundwater-Sourced Rural Drinking Water Quality in Saskatchewan

PubMed Central

McLeod, Lianne; Bharadwaj, Lalita; Epp, Tasha; Waldner, Cheryl L.

2017-01-01

Groundwater drinking water supply surveillance data were accessed to summarize water quality delivered as public and private water supplies in southern Saskatchewan as part of an exposure assessment for epidemiologic analyses of associations between water quality and type 2 diabetes or cardiovascular disease. Arsenic in drinking water has been linked to a variety of chronic diseases and previous studies have identified multiple wells with arsenic above the drinking water standard of 0.01 mg/L; therefore, arsenic concentrations were of specific interest. Principal components analysis was applied to obtain principal component (PC) scores to summarize mixtures of correlated parameters identified as health standards and those identified as aesthetic objectives in the Saskatchewan Drinking Water Quality Standards and Objective. Ordinary, universal, and empirical Bayesian kriging were used to interpolate arsenic concentrations and PC scores in southern Saskatchewan, and the results were compared. Empirical Bayesian kriging performed best across all analyses, based on having the greatest number of variables for which the root mean square error was lowest. While all of the kriging methods appeared to underestimate high values of arsenic and PC scores, empirical Bayesian kriging was chosen to summarize large scale geographic trends in groundwater-sourced drinking water quality and assess exposure to mixtures of trace metals and ions. PMID:28914824

Use of Principal Components Analysis and Kriging to Predict Groundwater-Sourced Rural Drinking Water Quality in Saskatchewan.

PubMed

McLeod, Lianne; Bharadwaj, Lalita; Epp, Tasha; Waldner, Cheryl L

2017-09-15

Groundwater drinking water supply surveillance data were accessed to summarize water quality delivered as public and private water supplies in southern Saskatchewan as part of an exposure assessment for epidemiologic analyses of associations between water quality and type 2 diabetes or cardiovascular disease. Arsenic in drinking water has been linked to a variety of chronic diseases and previous studies have identified multiple wells with arsenic above the drinking water standard of 0.01 mg/L; therefore, arsenic concentrations were of specific interest. Principal components analysis was applied to obtain principal component (PC) scores to summarize mixtures of correlated parameters identified as health standards and those identified as aesthetic objectives in the Saskatchewan Drinking Water Quality Standards and Objective. Ordinary, universal, and empirical Bayesian kriging were used to interpolate arsenic concentrations and PC scores in southern Saskatchewan, and the results were compared. Empirical Bayesian kriging performed best across all analyses, based on having the greatest number of variables for which the root mean square error was lowest. While all of the kriging methods appeared to underestimate high values of arsenic and PC scores, empirical Bayesian kriging was chosen to summarize large scale geographic trends in groundwater-sourced drinking water quality and assess exposure to mixtures of trace metals and ions.

Phylodynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba.

PubMed

Delatorre, Edson; Bello, Gonzalo

2013-01-01

Previous studies have shown that the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba displayed a complex molecular epidemiologic profile with circulation of several subtypes and circulating recombinant forms (CRF); but the evolutionary and population history of those viral variants remains unknown. HIV-1 pol sequences of the most prevalent Cuban lineages (subtypes B, C and G, CRF18_cpx, CRF19_cpx, and CRFs20/23/24_BG) isolated between 1999 and 2011 were analyzed. Maximum-likelihood analyses revealed multiple introductions of subtype B (n≥66), subtype C (n≥10), subtype G (n≥8) and CRF18_cpx (n≥2) viruses in Cuba. The bulk of HIV-1 infections in this country, however, was caused by dissemination of a few founder strains probably introduced from North America/Europe (clades B(CU-I) and B(CU-II)), east Africa (clade C(CU-I)) and central Africa (clades G(CU), CRF18(CU) and CRF19(CU)), or locally generated (clades CRFs20/23/24_BG). Bayesian-coalescent analyses show that the major HIV-1 founder strains were introduced into Cuba during 1985-1995; whereas the CRFs_BG strains emerged in the second half of the 1990s. Most HIV-1 Cuban clades appear to have experienced an initial period of fast exponential spread during the 1990s and early 2000s, followed by a more recent decline in growth rate. The median initial growth rate of HIV-1 Cuban clades ranged from 0.4 year⁻¹ to 1.6 year⁻¹. Thus, the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba has been a result of the successful introduction of a few viral strains that began to circulate at a rather late time of the AIDS pandemic, but then were rapidly disseminated through local transmission networks.

Pleistocene evolutionary history of the Clouded Apollo (Parnassius mnemosyne): genetic signatures of climate cycles and a 'time-dependent' mitochondrial substitution rate.

PubMed

Gratton, P; Konopiński, M K; Sbordoni, V

2008-10-01

Genetic data are currently providing a large amount of new information on past distribution of species and are contributing to a new vision of Pleistocene ice ages. Nonetheless, an increasing number of studies on the 'time dependency' of mutation rates suggest that date assessments for evolutionary events of the Pleistocene might be overestimated. We analysed mitochondrial (mt) DNA (COI) sequence variation in 225 Parnassius mnemosyne individuals sampled across central and eastern Europe in order to assess (i) the existence of genetic signatures of Pleistocene climate shifts; and (ii) the timescale of demographic and evolutionary events. Our analyses reveal a phylogeographical pattern markedly influenced by the Pleistocene/Holocene climate shifts. Eastern Alpine and Balkan populations display comparatively high mtDNA diversity, suggesting multiple glacial refugia. On the other hand, three widely distributed and spatially segregated lineages occupy most of northern and eastern Europe, indicating postglacial recolonization from different refugial areas. We show that a conventional 'phylogenetic' substitution rate cannot account for the present distribution of genetic variation in this species, and we combine phylogeographical pattern and palaeoecological information in order to determine a suitable intraspecific rate through a Bayesian coalescent approach. We argue that our calibrated 'time-dependent' rate (0.096 substitutions/ million years), offers the most convincing time frame for the evolutionary events inferred from sequence data. When scaled by the new rate, estimates of divergence between Balkan and Alpine lineages point to c. 19 000 years before present (last glacial maximum), and parameters of demographic expansion for northern lineages are consistent with postglacial warming (5-11 000 years before present).

Challenges in Species Tree Estimation Under the Multispecies Coalescent Model

PubMed Central

Xu, Bo; Yang, Ziheng

2016-01-01

The multispecies coalescent (MSC) model has emerged as a powerful framework for inferring species phylogenies while accounting for ancestral polymorphism and gene tree-species tree conflict. A number of methods have been developed in the past few years to estimate the species tree under the MSC. The full likelihood methods (including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference) average over the unknown gene trees and accommodate their uncertainties properly but involve intensive computation. The approximate or summary coalescent methods are computationally fast and are applicable to genomic datasets with thousands of loci, but do not make an efficient use of information in the multilocus data. Most of them take the two-step approach of reconstructing the gene trees for multiple loci by phylogenetic methods and then treating the estimated gene trees as observed data, without accounting for their uncertainties appropriately. In this article we review the statistical nature of the species tree estimation problem under the MSC, and explore the conceptual issues and challenges of species tree estimation by focusing mainly on simple cases of three or four closely related species. We use mathematical analysis and computer simulation to demonstrate that large differences in statistical performance may exist between the two classes of methods. We illustrate that several counterintuitive behaviors may occur with the summary methods but they are due to inefficient use of information in the data by summary methods and vanish when the data are analyzed using full-likelihood methods. These include (i) unidentifiability of parameters in the model, (ii) inconsistency in the so-called anomaly zone, (iii) singularity on the likelihood surface, and (iv) deterioration of performance upon addition of more data. We discuss the challenges and strategies of species tree inference for distantly related species when the molecular clock is violated, and highlight the need for improving the computational efficiency and model realism of the likelihood methods as well as the statistical efficiency of the summary methods. PMID:27927902

A Microsoft-Excel-based tool for running and critically appraising network meta-analyses--an overview and application of NetMetaXL.

PubMed

Brown, Stephen; Hutton, Brian; Clifford, Tammy; Coyle, Doug; Grima, Daniel; Wells, George; Cameron, Chris

2014-09-29

The use of network meta-analysis has increased dramatically in recent years. WinBUGS, a freely available Bayesian software package, has been the most widely used software package to conduct network meta-analyses. However, the learning curve for WinBUGS can be daunting, especially for new users. Furthermore, critical appraisal of network meta-analyses conducted in WinBUGS can be challenging given its limited data manipulation capabilities and the fact that generation of graphical output from network meta-analyses often relies on different software packages than the analyses themselves. We developed a freely available Microsoft-Excel-based tool called NetMetaXL, programmed in Visual Basic for Applications, which provides an interface for conducting a Bayesian network meta-analysis using WinBUGS from within Microsoft Excel. . This tool allows the user to easily prepare and enter data, set model assumptions, and run the network meta-analysis, with results being automatically displayed in an Excel spreadsheet. It also contains macros that use NetMetaXL's interface to generate evidence network diagrams, forest plots, league tables of pairwise comparisons, probability plots (rankograms), and inconsistency plots within Microsoft Excel. All figures generated are publication quality, thereby increasing the efficiency of knowledge transfer and manuscript preparation. We demonstrate the application of NetMetaXL using data from a network meta-analysis published previously which compares combined resynchronization and implantable defibrillator therapy in left ventricular dysfunction. We replicate results from the previous publication while demonstrating result summaries generated by the software. Use of the freely available NetMetaXL successfully demonstrated its ability to make running network meta-analyses more accessible to novice WinBUGS users by allowing analyses to be conducted entirely within Microsoft Excel. NetMetaXL also allows for more efficient and transparent critical appraisal of network meta-analyses, enhanced standardization of reporting, and integration with health economic evaluations which are frequently Excel-based.

Computer-Based Model Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis: Terms and Concepts

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-01

uncertainty analyses throughout the lifecycle of planning, designing, and operating of Civil Works flood risk management projects as described in...value 95% of the time. In the frequentist approach to PE, model parameters area regarded as having true values, and their estimate is based on the...in catchment models. 1. Evaluating parameter uncertainty. Water Resources Research 19(5):1151–1172. Lee, P. M. 2012. Bayesian statistics: An

Fast genomic predictions via Bayesian G-BLUP and multilocus models of threshold traits including censored Gaussian data.

PubMed

Kärkkäinen, Hanni P; Sillanpää, Mikko J

2013-09-04

Because of the increased availability of genome-wide sets of molecular markers along with reduced cost of genotyping large samples of individuals, genomic estimated breeding values have become an essential resource in plant and animal breeding. Bayesian methods for breeding value estimation have proven to be accurate and efficient; however, the ever-increasing data sets are placing heavy demands on the parameter estimation algorithms. Although a commendable number of fast estimation algorithms are available for Bayesian models of continuous Gaussian traits, there is a shortage for corresponding models of discrete or censored phenotypes. In this work, we consider a threshold approach of binary, ordinal, and censored Gaussian observations for Bayesian multilocus association models and Bayesian genomic best linear unbiased prediction and present a high-speed generalized expectation maximization algorithm for parameter estimation under these models. We demonstrate our method with simulated and real data. Our example analyses suggest that the use of the extra information present in an ordered categorical or censored Gaussian data set, instead of dichotomizing the data into case-control observations, increases the accuracy of genomic breeding values predicted by Bayesian multilocus association models or by Bayesian genomic best linear unbiased prediction. Furthermore, the example analyses indicate that the correct threshold model is more accurate than the directly used Gaussian model with a censored Gaussian data, while with a binary or an ordinal data the superiority of the threshold model could not be confirmed.

Fast Genomic Predictions via Bayesian G-BLUP and Multilocus Models of Threshold Traits Including Censored Gaussian Data

PubMed Central

Kärkkäinen, Hanni P.; Sillanpää, Mikko J.

2013-01-01

Because of the increased availability of genome-wide sets of molecular markers along with reduced cost of genotyping large samples of individuals, genomic estimated breeding values have become an essential resource in plant and animal breeding. Bayesian methods for breeding value estimation have proven to be accurate and efficient; however, the ever-increasing data sets are placing heavy demands on the parameter estimation algorithms. Although a commendable number of fast estimation algorithms are available for Bayesian models of continuous Gaussian traits, there is a shortage for corresponding models of discrete or censored phenotypes. In this work, we consider a threshold approach of binary, ordinal, and censored Gaussian observations for Bayesian multilocus association models and Bayesian genomic best linear unbiased prediction and present a high-speed generalized expectation maximization algorithm for parameter estimation under these models. We demonstrate our method with simulated and real data. Our example analyses suggest that the use of the extra information present in an ordered categorical or censored Gaussian data set, instead of dichotomizing the data into case-control observations, increases the accuracy of genomic breeding values predicted by Bayesian multilocus association models or by Bayesian genomic best linear unbiased prediction. Furthermore, the example analyses indicate that the correct threshold model is more accurate than the directly used Gaussian model with a censored Gaussian data, while with a binary or an ordinal data the superiority of the threshold model could not be confirmed. PMID:23821618

Molecular phylogeny of black fungus gnats (Diptera: Sciaroidea: Sciaridae) and the evolution of larval habitats.

PubMed

Shin, Seunggwan; Jung, Sunghoon; Menzel, Frank; Heller, Kai; Lee, Heungsik; Lee, Seunghwan

2013-03-01

The phylogeny of the family Sciaridae is reconstructed, based on maximum likelihood, maximum parsimony, and Bayesian analyses of 4809bp from two mitochondrial (COI and 16S) and two nuclear (18S and 28S) genes for 100 taxa including the outgroup taxa. According to the present phylogenetic analyses, Sciaridae comprise three subfamilies and two genus groups: Sciarinae, Chaetosciara group, Cratyninae, and Pseudolycoriella group+Megalosphyinae. Our molecular results are largely congruent with one of the former hypotheses based on morphological data with respect to the monophyly of genera and subfamilies (Sciarinae, Megalosphyinae, and part of postulated "new subfamily"); however, the subfamily Cratyninae is shown to be polyphyletic, and the genera Bradysia, Corynoptera, Leptosciarella, Lycoriella, and Phytosciara are also recognized as non-monophyletic groups. While the ancestral larval habitat state of the family Sciaridae, based on Bayesian inference, is dead plant material (plant litter+rotten wood), the common ancestors of Phytosciara and Bradysia are inferred to living plants habitat. Therefore, shifts in larval habitats from dead plant material to living plants may have occurred within the Sciaridae at least once. Based on the results, we discuss phylogenetic relationships within the family, and present an evolutionary scenario of development of larval habitats. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Shear driven droplet shedding and coalescence on a superhydrophobic surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moghtadernejad, S.; Tembely, M.; Jadidi, M.; Esmail, N.; Dolatabadi, A.

2015-03-01

The interest on shedding and coalescence of sessile droplets arises from the importance of these phenomena in various scientific problems and industrial applications such as ice formation on wind turbine blades, power lines, nacelles, and aircraft wings. It is shown recently that one of the ways to reduce the probability of ice accretion on industrial components is using superhydrophobic coatings due to their low adhesion to water droplets. In this study, a combined experimental and numerical approach is used to investigate droplet shedding and coalescence phenomena under the influence of air shear flow on a superhydrophobic surface. Droplets with a size of 2 mm are subjected to various air speeds ranging from 5 to 90 m/s. A numerical simulation based on the Volume of Fluid method coupled with the Large Eddy Simulation turbulent model is carried out in conjunction with the validating experiments to shed more light on the coalescence of droplets and detachment phenomena through a detailed analysis of the aerodynamics forces and velocity vectors on the droplet and the streamlines around it. The results indicate a contrast in the mechanism of two-droplet coalescence and subsequent detachment with those related to the case of a single droplet shedding. At lower speeds, the two droplets coalesce by attracting each other with successive rebounds of the merged droplet on the substrate, while at higher speeds, the detachment occurs almost instantly after coalescence, with a detachment time decreasing exponentially with the air speed. It is shown that coalescence phenomenon assists droplet detachment from the superhydrophobic substrate at lower air speeds.

The Bayesian approach to reporting GSR analysis results: some first-hand experiences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charles, Sebastien; Nys, Bart

2010-06-01

The use of Bayesian principles in the reporting of forensic findings has been a matter of interest for some years. Recently, also the GSR community is gradually exploring the advantages of this method, or rather approach, for writing reports. Since last year, our GSR group is adapting reporting procedures to the use of Bayesian principles. The police and magistrates find the reports more directly accessible and useful in their part of the criminal investigation. In the lab we find that, through applying the Bayesian principles, unnecessary analyses can be eliminated and thus time can be freed on the instruments.

"A Bayesian sensitivity analysis to evaluate the impact of unmeasured confounding with external data: a real world comparative effectiveness study in osteoporosis".

PubMed

Zhang, Xiang; Faries, Douglas E; Boytsov, Natalie; Stamey, James D; Seaman, John W

2016-09-01

Observational studies are frequently used to assess the effectiveness of medical interventions in routine clinical practice. However, the use of observational data for comparative effectiveness is challenged by selection bias and the potential of unmeasured confounding. This is especially problematic for analyses using a health care administrative database, in which key clinical measures are often not available. This paper provides an approach to conducting a sensitivity analyses to investigate the impact of unmeasured confounding in observational studies. In a real world osteoporosis comparative effectiveness study, the bone mineral density (BMD) score, an important predictor of fracture risk and a factor in the selection of osteoporosis treatments, is unavailable in the data base and lack of baseline BMD could potentially lead to significant selection bias. We implemented Bayesian twin-regression models, which simultaneously model both the observed outcome and the unobserved unmeasured confounder, using information from external sources. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to assess the robustness of our conclusions to changes in such external data. The use of Bayesian modeling in this study suggests that the lack of baseline BMD did have a strong impact on the analysis, reversing the direction of the estimated effect (odds ratio of fracture incidence at 24 months: 0.40 vs. 1.36, with/without adjusting for unmeasured baseline BMD). The Bayesian twin-regression models provide a flexible sensitivity analysis tool to quantitatively assess the impact of unmeasured confounding in observational studies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bayesian hierarchical functional data analysis via contaminated informative priors.

PubMed

Scarpa, Bruno; Dunson, David B

2009-09-01

A variety of flexible approaches have been proposed for functional data analysis, allowing both the mean curve and the distribution about the mean to be unknown. Such methods are most useful when there is limited prior information. Motivated by applications to modeling of temperature curves in the menstrual cycle, this article proposes a flexible approach for incorporating prior information in semiparametric Bayesian analyses of hierarchical functional data. The proposed approach is based on specifying the distribution of functions as a mixture of a parametric hierarchical model and a nonparametric contamination. The parametric component is chosen based on prior knowledge, while the contamination is characterized as a functional Dirichlet process. In the motivating application, the contamination component allows unanticipated curve shapes in unhealthy menstrual cycles. Methods are developed for posterior computation, and the approach is applied to data from a European fecundability study.

Species-richness of the Anopheles annulipes Complex (Diptera: Culicidae) Revealed by Tree and Model-Based Allozyme Clustering Analyses

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

including tree- based methods such as the unweighted pair group method of analysis ( UPGMA ) and Neighbour-joining (NJ) (Saitou & Nei, 1987). By...based Bayesian approach and the tree-based UPGMA and NJ cluster- ing methods. The results obtained suggest that far more species occur in the An...unlikely that groups that differ by more than these levels are conspecific. Genetic distances were clustered using the UPGMA and NJ algorithms in MEGA

A Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis to Synthesize the Influence of Contexts of Scaffolding Use on Cognitive Outcomes in STEM Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Belland, Brian R.; Walker, Andrew E.; Kim, Nam Ju

2017-01-01

Computer-based scaffolding provides temporary support that enables students to participate in and become more proficient at complex skills like problem solving, argumentation, and evaluation. While meta-analyses have addressed between-subject differences on cognitive outcomes resulting from scaffolding, none has addressed within-subject gains.…

Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzysztofowicz, R.; Reese, S.

1991-12-01

Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to the ex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971 1988.

Emerging Concepts of Data Integration in Pathogen Phylodynamics.

PubMed

Baele, Guy; Suchard, Marc A; Rambaut, Andrew; Lemey, Philippe

2017-01-01

Phylodynamics has become an increasingly popular statistical framework to extract evolutionary and epidemiological information from pathogen genomes. By harnessing such information, epidemiologists aim to shed light on the spatio-temporal patterns of spread and to test hypotheses about the underlying interaction of evolutionary and ecological dynamics in pathogen populations. Although the field has witnessed a rich development of statistical inference tools with increasing levels of sophistication, these tools initially focused on sequences as their sole primary data source. Integrating various sources of information, however, promises to deliver more precise insights in infectious diseases and to increase opportunities for statistical hypothesis testing. Here, we review how the emerging concept of data integration is stimulating new advances in Bayesian evolutionary inference methodology which formalize a marriage of statistical thinking and evolutionary biology. These approaches include connecting sequence to trait evolution, such as for host, phenotypic and geographic sampling information, but also the incorporation of covariates of evolutionary and epidemic processes in the reconstruction procedures. We highlight how a full Bayesian approach to covariate modeling and testing can generate further insights into sequence evolution, trait evolution, and population dynamics in pathogen populations. Specific examples demonstrate how such approaches can be used to test the impact of host on rabies and HIV evolutionary rates, to identify the drivers of influenza dispersal as well as the determinants of rabies cross-species transmissions, and to quantify the evolutionary dynamics of influenza antigenicity. Finally, we briefly discuss how data integration is now also permeating through the inference of transmission dynamics, leading to novel insights into tree-generative processes and detailed reconstructions of transmission trees. [Bayesian inference; birth–death models; coalescent models; continuous trait evolution; covariates; data integration; discrete trait evolution; pathogen phylodynamics.

Emerging Concepts of Data Integration in Pathogen Phylodynamics

PubMed Central

Baele, Guy; Suchard, Marc A.; Rambaut, Andrew; Lemey, Philippe

2017-01-01

Phylodynamics has become an increasingly popular statistical framework to extract evolutionary and epidemiological information from pathogen genomes. By harnessing such information, epidemiologists aim to shed light on the spatio-temporal patterns of spread and to test hypotheses about the underlying interaction of evolutionary and ecological dynamics in pathogen populations. Although the field has witnessed a rich development of statistical inference tools with increasing levels of sophistication, these tools initially focused on sequences as their sole primary data source. Integrating various sources of information, however, promises to deliver more precise insights in infectious diseases and to increase opportunities for statistical hypothesis testing. Here, we review how the emerging concept of data integration is stimulating new advances in Bayesian evolutionary inference methodology which formalize a marriage of statistical thinking and evolutionary biology. These approaches include connecting sequence to trait evolution, such as for host, phenotypic and geographic sampling information, but also the incorporation of covariates of evolutionary and epidemic processes in the reconstruction procedures. We highlight how a full Bayesian approach to covariate modeling and testing can generate further insights into sequence evolution, trait evolution, and population dynamics in pathogen populations. Specific examples demonstrate how such approaches can be used to test the impact of host on rabies and HIV evolutionary rates, to identify the drivers of influenza dispersal as well as the determinants of rabies cross-species transmissions, and to quantify the evolutionary dynamics of influenza antigenicity. Finally, we briefly discuss how data integration is now also permeating through the inference of transmission dynamics, leading to novel insights into tree-generative processes and detailed reconstructions of transmission trees. [Bayesian inference; birth–death models; coalescent models; continuous trait evolution; covariates; data integration; discrete trait evolution; pathogen phylodynamics. PMID:28173504

Approximate Bayesian estimation of extinction rate in the Finnish Daphnia magna metapopulation.

PubMed

Robinson, John D; Hall, David W; Wares, John P

2013-05-01

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is useful for parameterizing complex models in population genetics. In this study, ABC was applied to simultaneously estimate parameter values for a model of metapopulation coalescence and test two alternatives to a strict metapopulation model in the well-studied network of Daphnia magna populations in Finland. The models shared four free parameters: the subpopulation genetic diversity (θS), the rate of gene flow among patches (4Nm), the founding population size (N0) and the metapopulation extinction rate (e) but differed in the distribution of extinction rates across habitat patches in the system. The three models had either a constant extinction rate in all populations (strict metapopulation), one population that was protected from local extinction (i.e. a persistent source), or habitat-specific extinction rates drawn from a distribution with specified mean and variance. Our model selection analysis favoured the model including a persistent source population over the two alternative models. Of the closest 750,000 data sets in Euclidean space, 78% were simulated under the persistent source model (estimated posterior probability = 0.769). This fraction increased to more than 85% when only the closest 150,000 data sets were considered (estimated posterior probability = 0.774). Approximate Bayesian computation was then used to estimate parameter values that might produce the observed set of summary statistics. Our analysis provided posterior distributions for e that included the point estimate obtained from previous data from the Finnish D. magna metapopulation. Our results support the use of ABC and population genetic data for testing the strict metapopulation model and parameterizing complex models of demography. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Tracing the spatio-temporal dynamics of endangered fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) within baleen whale (Mysticeti) lineages: a mitogenomic perspective.

PubMed

Yu, Jihyun; Nam, Bo-Hye; Yoon, Joon; Kim, Eun Bae; Park, Jung Youn; Kim, Heebal; Yoon, Sook Hee

2017-12-01

To explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of endangered fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) within the baleen whale (Mysticeti) lineages, we analyzed 148 published mitochondrial genome sequences of baleen whales. We used a Bayesian coalescent approach as well as Bayesian inferences and maximum likelihood methods. The results showed that the fin whales had a single maternal origin, and that there is a significant correlation between geographic location and evolution of global fin whales. The most recent common female ancestor of this species lived approximately 9.88 million years ago (Mya). Here, North Pacific fin whales first appeared about 7.48 Mya, followed by a subsequent divergence in Southern Hemisphere approximately 6.63 Mya and North Atlantic about 4.42 Mya. Relatively recently, approximately 1.76 and 1.42 Mya, there were two additional occurrences of North Pacific populations; one originated from the Southern Hemisphere and the other from an uncertain location. The evolutionary rate of this species was 1.002 × 10 -3 substitutions/site/My. Our Bayesian skyline plot illustrates that the fin whale population has the rapid expansion event since ~ 2.5 Mya, during the Quaternary glaciation stage. Additionally, this study indicates that the fin whale has a sister group relationship with humpback whale (Meganoptera novaeangliae) within the baleen whale lineages. Of the 16 genomic regions, NADH5 showed the most powerful signal for baleen whale phylogenetics. Interestingly, fin whales have 16 species-specific amino acid residues in eight mitochondrial genes: NADH2, COX2, COX3, ATPase6, ATPase8, NADH4, NADH5, and Cytb.

Estimating diversifying selection and functional constraint in the presence of recombination.

PubMed

Wilson, Daniel J; McVean, Gilean

2006-03-01

Models of molecular evolution that incorporate the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous polymorphism (dN/dS ratio) as a parameter can be used to identify sites that are under diversifying selection or functional constraint in a sample of gene sequences. However, when there has been recombination in the evolutionary history of the sequences, reconstructing a single phylogenetic tree is not appropriate, and inference based on a single tree can give misleading results. In the presence of high levels of recombination, the identification of sites experiencing diversifying selection can suffer from a false-positive rate as high as 90%. We present a model that uses a population genetics approximation to the coalescent with recombination and use reversible-jump MCMC to perform Bayesian inference on both the dN/dS ratio and the recombination rate, allowing each to vary along the sequence. We demonstrate that the method has the power to detect variation in the dN/dS ratio and the recombination rate and does not suffer from a high false-positive rate. We use the method to analyze the porB gene of Neisseria meningitidis and verify the inferences using prior sensitivity analysis and model criticism techniques.

Estimating Diversifying Selection and Functional Constraint in the Presence of Recombination

PubMed Central

Wilson, Daniel J.; McVean, Gilean

2006-01-01

Models of molecular evolution that incorporate the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous polymorphism (dN/dS ratio) as a parameter can be used to identify sites that are under diversifying selection or functional constraint in a sample of gene sequences. However, when there has been recombination in the evolutionary history of the sequences, reconstructing a single phylogenetic tree is not appropriate, and inference based on a single tree can give misleading results. In the presence of high levels of recombination, the identification of sites experiencing diversifying selection can suffer from a false-positive rate as high as 90%. We present a model that uses a population genetics approximation to the coalescent with recombination and use reversible-jump MCMC to perform Bayesian inference on both the dN/dS ratio and the recombination rate, allowing each to vary along the sequence. We demonstrate that the method has the power to detect variation in the dN/dS ratio and the recombination rate and does not suffer from a high false-positive rate. We use the method to analyze the porB gene of Neisseria meningitidis and verify the inferences using prior sensitivity analysis and model criticism techniques. PMID:16387887

Measurements of the Young's modulus of hydroxide catalysis bonds, and the effect on thermal noise in ground-based gravitational wave detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phelps, Margot; van Veggel, Anna-Maria; Hough, James; Messenger, Chris; Hughes, David; Cunningham, William; Haughian, Karen; Rowan, Sheila

2018-05-01

With the outstanding results from the detection and observation of gravitational waves from coalescing black holes and neutron star inspirals, it is essential that pathways to further improve the sensitivities of the LIGO and VIRGO detectors are explored. There are a number of factors that potentially limit the sensitivities of the detectors. One such factor is thermal noise, a component of which results from the mechanical loss in the bond material between the silica fibre suspensions and the test mass mirrors. To calculate its magnitude, the Young's modulus of the bond material has to be known with reasonable accuracy. In this paper we present a new combination of ultrasonic technology and Bayesian analysis to measure the Young's modulus of hydroxide catalysis bonds between fused silica substrates. Using this novel technique, we measure the bond Young's modulus to be 18.5 ±2.32.0 GPa . We show that by applying this value to thermal noise models of bonded test masses with suitable attachment geometries, a reduction in suspension thermal noise consistent with an overall design sensitivity improvement allows a factor of 5 increase in event rate to be achieved.

High correlations between MRI brain volume measurements based on NeuroQuant® and FreeSurfer.

PubMed

Ross, David E; Ochs, Alfred L; Tate, David F; Tokac, Umit; Seabaugh, John; Abildskov, Tracy J; Bigler, Erin D

2018-05-30

NeuroQuant ® (NQ) and FreeSurfer (FS) are commonly used computer-automated programs for measuring MRI brain volume. Previously they were reported to have high intermethod reliabilities but often large intermethod effect size differences. We hypothesized that linear transformations could be used to reduce the large effect sizes. This study was an extension of our previously reported study. We performed NQ and FS brain volume measurements on 60 subjects (including normal controls, patients with traumatic brain injury, and patients with Alzheimer's disease). We used two statistical approaches in parallel to develop methods for transforming FS volumes into NQ volumes: traditional linear regression, and Bayesian linear regression. For both methods, we used regression analyses to develop linear transformations of the FS volumes to make them more similar to the NQ volumes. The FS-to-NQ transformations based on traditional linear regression resulted in effect sizes which were small to moderate. The transformations based on Bayesian linear regression resulted in all effect sizes being trivially small. To our knowledge, this is the first report describing a method for transforming FS to NQ data so as to achieve high reliability and low effect size differences. Machine learning methods like Bayesian regression may be more useful than traditional methods. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phylogeny and Bayesian divergence time estimations of small-headed flies (Diptera: Acroceridae) using multiple molecular markers.

PubMed

Winterton, Shaun L; Wiegmann, Brian M; Schlinger, Evert I

2007-06-01

The first formal analysis of phylogenetic relationships among small-headed flies (Acroceridae) is presented based on DNA sequence data from two ribosomal (16S and 28S) and two protein-encoding genes: carbomoylphosphate synthase (CPS) domain of CAD (i.e., rudimentary locus) and cytochrome oxidase I (COI). DNA sequences from 40 species in 22 genera of Acroceridae (representing all three subfamilies) were compared with outgroup exemplars from Nemestrinidae, Stratiomyidae, Tabanidae, and Xylophagidae. Parsimony and Bayesian simultaneous analyses of the full data set recover a well-resolved and strongly supported hypothesis of phylogenetic relationships for major lineages within the family. Molecular evidence supports the monophyly of traditionally recognised subfamilies Philopotinae and Panopinae, but Acrocerinae are polyphyletic. Panopinae, sometimes considered "primitive" based on morphology and host-use, are always placed in a more derived position in the current study. Furthermore, these data support emerging morphological evidence that the type genus Acrocera Meigen, and its sister genus Sphaerops, are atypical acrocerids, comprising a sister lineage to all other Acroceridae. Based on the phylogeny generated in the simultaneous analysis, historical divergence times were estimated using Bayesian methodology constrained with fossil data. These estimates indicate Acroceridae likely evolved during the late Triassic but did not diversify greatly until the Cretaceous.

A Microsoft-Excel-based tool for running and critically appraising network meta-analyses—an overview and application of NetMetaXL

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The use of network meta-analysis has increased dramatically in recent years. WinBUGS, a freely available Bayesian software package, has been the most widely used software package to conduct network meta-analyses. However, the learning curve for WinBUGS can be daunting, especially for new users. Furthermore, critical appraisal of network meta-analyses conducted in WinBUGS can be challenging given its limited data manipulation capabilities and the fact that generation of graphical output from network meta-analyses often relies on different software packages than the analyses themselves. Methods We developed a freely available Microsoft-Excel-based tool called NetMetaXL, programmed in Visual Basic for Applications, which provides an interface for conducting a Bayesian network meta-analysis using WinBUGS from within Microsoft Excel. . This tool allows the user to easily prepare and enter data, set model assumptions, and run the network meta-analysis, with results being automatically displayed in an Excel spreadsheet. It also contains macros that use NetMetaXL’s interface to generate evidence network diagrams, forest plots, league tables of pairwise comparisons, probability plots (rankograms), and inconsistency plots within Microsoft Excel. All figures generated are publication quality, thereby increasing the efficiency of knowledge transfer and manuscript preparation. Results We demonstrate the application of NetMetaXL using data from a network meta-analysis published previously which compares combined resynchronization and implantable defibrillator therapy in left ventricular dysfunction. We replicate results from the previous publication while demonstrating result summaries generated by the software. Conclusions Use of the freely available NetMetaXL successfully demonstrated its ability to make running network meta-analyses more accessible to novice WinBUGS users by allowing analyses to be conducted entirely within Microsoft Excel. NetMetaXL also allows for more efficient and transparent critical appraisal of network meta-analyses, enhanced standardization of reporting, and integration with health economic evaluations which are frequently Excel-based. PMID:25267416

A taxonomic monograph of Nearctic Scolytus Geoffroy (Coleoptera, Curculionidae, Scolytinae).

PubMed

Smith, Sarah M; Cognato, Anthony I

2014-01-01

The Nearctic bark beetle genus Scolytus Geoffroy was revised based in part on a molecular and morphological phylogeny. Monophyly of the native species was tested using mitochondrial (COI) and nuclear (28S, CAD, ArgK) genes and 43 morphological characters in parsimony and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses. Parsimony analyses of molecular and combined datasets provided mixed results while Bayesian analysis recovered most nodes with posterior probabilities >90%. Native hardwood- and conifer-feeding Scolytus species were recovered as paraphyletic. Native Nearctic species were recovered as paraphyletic with hardwood-feeding species sister to Palearctic hardwood-feeding species rather than to native conifer-feeding species. The Nearctic conifer-feeding species were monophyletic. Twenty-five species were recognized. Four new synonyms were discovered: Scolytuspraeceps LeConte, 1868 (= Scolytusabietis Blackman, 1934; = Scolytusopacus Blackman, 1934), Scolytusreflexus Blackman, 1934 (= Scolytusvirgatus Bright, 1972; = Scolytuswickhami Blackman, 1934). Two species were reinstated: Scolytusfiskei Blackman, 1934 and Scolytussilvaticus Bright, 1972. A diagnosis, description, distribution, host records and images were provided for each species and a key is presented to all species.

Flocculation and coalescence of droplets in oil-in-water emulsions formed with highly hydrolysed whey proteins as influenced by starch.

PubMed

Ye, Aiqian; Hemar, Yacine; Singh, Harjinder

2004-10-10

The effects of added unmodified amylopectin starch, modified amylopectin starch and amylose starch on the formation and properties of emulsions (4 wt.% corn oil) made with an extensively hydrolysed commercial whey protein (WPH) product under a range of conditions were examined. The rate of coalescence was calculated based on the changes in the droplet size of the emulsions during storage at 20 degrees C. The rates of creaming and coalescence in emulsions containing amylopectin starches were enhanced with increasing concentration of the starches during storage for up to 7 days. At a given starch concentration, the rate of coalescence was higher in the emulsions containing modified amylopectin starch than in those containing unmodified amylopectin starch, whereas it was lowest in the emulsions containing amylose starch. All emulsions containing unmodified and modified amylopectin starches showed flocculation of oil droplets by a depletion mechanism. However, flocculation was not observed in the emulsions containing amylose starch. The extent of flocculation was considered to correlate with the rate of coalescence of oil droplets. The different rates of coalescence could be explained on the basis of the strength of the depletion potential, which was dependent on the molecular weight and the radius of gyration of the starches. At high levels of starch addition (>1.5%), the rate of coalescence decreased gradually, apparently because of the high viscosity of the aqueous phase caused by the starch.

A dual-core double emulsion platform for osmolarity-controlled microreactor triggered by coalescence of encapsulated droplets.

PubMed

Guan, Xuewei; Hou, Likai; Ren, Yukun; Deng, Xiaokang; Lang, Qi; Jia, Yankai; Hu, Qingming; Tao, Ye; Liu, Jiangwei; Jiang, Hongyuan

2016-05-01

Droplet-based microfluidics has provided a means to generate multi-core double emulsions, which are versatile platforms for microreactors in materials science, synthetic biology, and chemical engineering. To provide new opportunities for double emulsion platforms, here, we report a glass capillary microfluidic approach to first fabricate osmolarity-responsive Water-in-Oil-in-Water (W/O/W) double emulsion containing two different inner droplets/cores and to then trigger the coalescence between the encapsulated droplets precisely. To achieve this, we independently control the swelling speed and size of each droplet in the dual-core double emulsion by controlling the osmotic pressure between the inner droplets and the collection solutions. When the inner two droplets in one W/O/W double emulsion swell to the same size and reach the instability of the oil film interface between the inner droplets, core-coalescence happens and this coalescence process can be controlled precisely. This microfluidic methodology enables the generation of highly monodisperse dual-core double emulsions and the osmolarity-controlled swelling behavior provides new stimuli to trigger the coalescence between the encapsulated droplets. Such swelling-caused core-coalescence behavior in dual-core double emulsion establishes a novel microreactor for nanoliter-scale reactions, which can protect reaction materials and products from being contaminated or released.

A dual-core double emulsion platform for osmolarity-controlled microreactor triggered by coalescence of encapsulated droplets

PubMed Central

Guan, Xuewei; Hou, Likai; Ren, Yukun; Deng, Xiaokang; Lang, Qi; Jia, Yankai; Hu, Qingming; Tao, Ye; Liu, Jiangwei; Jiang, Hongyuan

2016-01-01

Droplet-based microfluidics has provided a means to generate multi-core double emulsions, which are versatile platforms for microreactors in materials science, synthetic biology, and chemical engineering. To provide new opportunities for double emulsion platforms, here, we report a glass capillary microfluidic approach to first fabricate osmolarity-responsive Water-in-Oil-in-Water (W/O/W) double emulsion containing two different inner droplets/cores and to then trigger the coalescence between the encapsulated droplets precisely. To achieve this, we independently control the swelling speed and size of each droplet in the dual-core double emulsion by controlling the osmotic pressure between the inner droplets and the collection solutions. When the inner two droplets in one W/O/W double emulsion swell to the same size and reach the instability of the oil film interface between the inner droplets, core-coalescence happens and this coalescence process can be controlled precisely. This microfluidic methodology enables the generation of highly monodisperse dual-core double emulsions and the osmolarity-controlled swelling behavior provides new stimuli to trigger the coalescence between the encapsulated droplets. Such swelling-caused core-coalescence behavior in dual-core double emulsion establishes a novel microreactor for nanoliter-scale reactions, which can protect reaction materials and products from being contaminated or released. PMID:27279935

Mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequences reveal recent divergence in morphologically indistinguishable petrels.

PubMed

Welch, Andreanna J; Yoshida, Allison A; Fleischer, Robert C

2011-04-01

Often during the process of divergence, genetic markers will only gradually obtain the signal of isolation. Studies of recently diverged taxa utilizing both mitochondrial and nuclear data sets may therefore yield gene trees with differing levels of phylogenetic signal as a result of differences in coalescence times. However, several factors can lead to this same pattern, and it is important to distinguish between them to gain a better understanding of the process of divergence and the factors driving it. Here, we employ three nuclear intron loci in addition to the mitochondrial Cytochrome b gene to investigate the magnitude and timing of divergence between two endangered and nearly indistinguishable petrel taxa: the Galapagos (GAPE) and Hawaiian (HAPE) petrels (Pterodroma phaeopygia and P. sandwichensis). Phylogenetic analyses indicated reciprocal monophyly between these two taxa for the mitochondrial data set, but trees derived from the nuclear introns were unresolved. Coalescent analyses revealed effectively no migration between GAPE and HAPE over the last 100,000 generations and that they diverged relatively recently, approximately 550,000 years ago, coincident with a time of intense ecological change in both the Galapagos and Hawaiian archipelagoes. This indicates that recent divergence and incomplete lineage sorting are causing the difference in the strength of the phylogenetic signal of each data set, instead of insufficient variability or ongoing male-biased dispersal. Further coalescent analyses show that gene flow is low even between islands within each archipelago suggesting that divergence may be continuing at a local scale. Accurately identifying recently isolated taxa is becoming increasingly important as many clearly recognizable species are already threatened by extinction. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Underestimation of Variance of Predicted Health Utilities Derived from Multiattribute Utility Instruments.

PubMed

Chan, Kelvin K W; Xie, Feng; Willan, Andrew R; Pullenayegum, Eleanor M

2017-04-01

Parameter uncertainty in value sets of multiattribute utility-based instruments (MAUIs) has received little attention previously. This false precision leads to underestimation of the uncertainty of the results of cost-effectiveness analyses. The aim of this study is to examine the use of multiple imputation as a method to account for this uncertainty of MAUI scoring algorithms. We fitted a Bayesian model with random effects for respondents and health states to the data from the original US EQ-5D-3L valuation study, thereby estimating the uncertainty in the EQ-5D-3L scoring algorithm. We applied these results to EQ-5D-3L data from the Commonwealth Fund (CWF) Survey for Sick Adults ( n = 3958), comparing the standard error of the estimated mean utility in the CWF population using the predictive distribution from the Bayesian mixed-effect model (i.e., incorporating parameter uncertainty in the value set) with the standard error of the estimated mean utilities based on multiple imputation and the standard error using the conventional approach of using MAUI (i.e., ignoring uncertainty in the value set). The mean utility in the CWF population based on the predictive distribution of the Bayesian model was 0.827 with a standard error (SE) of 0.011. When utilities were derived using the conventional approach, the estimated mean utility was 0.827 with an SE of 0.003, which is only 25% of the SE based on the full predictive distribution of the mixed-effect model. Using multiple imputation with 20 imputed sets, the mean utility was 0.828 with an SE of 0.011, which is similar to the SE based on the full predictive distribution. Ignoring uncertainty of the predicted health utilities derived from MAUIs could lead to substantial underestimation of the variance of mean utilities. Multiple imputation corrects for this underestimation so that the results of cost-effectiveness analyses using MAUIs can report the correct degree of uncertainty.

A phylogenetic framework for root lesion nematodes of the genus Pratylenchus (Nematoda): Evidence from 18S and D2-D3 expansion segments of 28S ribosomal RNA genes and morphological characters.

PubMed

Subbotin, Sergei A; Ragsdale, Erik J; Mullens, Teresa; Roberts, Philip A; Mundo-Ocampo, Manuel; Baldwin, James G

2008-08-01

The root lesion nematodes of the genus Pratylenchus Filipjev, 1936 are migratory endoparasites of plant roots, considered among the most widespread and important nematode parasites in a variety of crops. We obtained gene sequences from the D2 and D3 expansion segments of 28S rRNA partial and 18S rRNA from 31 populations belonging to 11 valid and two unidentified species of root lesion nematodes and five outgroup taxa. These datasets were analyzed using maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference. The alignments were generated using the secondary structure models for these molecules and analyzed with Bayesian inference under the standard models and the complex model, considering helices under the doublet model and loops and bulges under the general time reversible model. The phylogenetic informativeness of morphological characters is tested by reconstruction of their histories on rRNA based trees using parallel parsimony and Bayesian approaches. Phylogenetic and sequence analyses of the 28S D2-D3 dataset with 145 accessions for 28 species and 18S dataset with 68 accessions for 15 species confirmed among large numbers of geographical diverse isolates that most classical morphospecies are monophyletic. Phylogenetic analyses revealed at least six distinct major clades of examined Pratylenchus species and these clades are generally congruent with those defined by characters derived from lip patterns, numbers of lip annules, and spermatheca shape. Morphological results suggest the need for sophisticated character discovery and analysis for morphology based phylogenetics in nematodes.

Bayesian Unimodal Density Regression for Causal Inference

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karabatsos, George; Walker, Stephen G.

2011-01-01

Karabatsos and Walker (2011) introduced a new Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) regression model. Through analyses of real and simulated data, they showed that the BNP regression model outperforms other parametric and nonparametric regression models of common use, in terms of predictive accuracy of the outcome (dependent) variable. The other,…

Bayesian and Frequentist Methods for Estimating Joint Uncertainty of Freundlich Adsorption Isotherm Fitting Parameters

EPA Science Inventory

In this paper, we present methods for estimating Freundlich isotherm fitting parameters (K and N) and their joint uncertainty, which have been implemented into the freeware software platforms R and WinBUGS. These estimates were determined by both Frequentist and Bayesian analyse...

Editorial: Bayesian benefits for child psychology and psychiatry researchers.

PubMed

Oldehinkel, Albertine J

2016-09-01

For many scientists, performing statistical tests has become an almost automated routine. However, p-values are frequently used and interpreted incorrectly; and even when used appropriately, p-values tend to provide answers that do not match researchers' questions and hypotheses well. Bayesian statistics present an elegant and often more suitable alternative. The Bayesian approach has rarely been applied in child psychology and psychiatry research so far, but the development of user-friendly software packages and tutorials has placed it well within reach now. Because Bayesian analyses require a more refined definition of hypothesized probabilities of possible outcomes than the classical approach, going Bayesian may offer the additional benefit of sparkling the development and refinement of theoretical models in our field. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Demographic Divergence History of Pied Flycatcher and Collared Flycatcher Inferred from Whole-Genome Re-sequencing Data

PubMed Central

Nadachowska-Brzyska, Krystyna; Burri, Reto; Olason, Pall I.; Kawakami, Takeshi; Smeds, Linnéa; Ellegren, Hans

2013-01-01

Profound knowledge of demographic history is a prerequisite for the understanding and inference of processes involved in the evolution of population differentiation and speciation. Together with new coalescent-based methods, the recent availability of genome-wide data enables investigation of differentiation and divergence processes at unprecedented depth. We combined two powerful approaches, full Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis (ABC) and pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent modeling (PSMC), to reconstruct the demographic history of the split between two avian speciation model species, the pied flycatcher and collared flycatcher. Using whole-genome re-sequencing data from 20 individuals, we investigated 15 demographic models including different levels and patterns of gene flow, and changes in effective population size over time. ABC provided high support for recent (mode 0.3 my, range <0.7 my) species divergence, declines in effective population size of both species since their initial divergence, and unidirectional recent gene flow from pied flycatcher into collared flycatcher. The estimated divergence time and population size changes, supported by PSMC results, suggest that the ancestral species persisted through one of the glacial periods of middle Pleistocene and then split into two large populations that first increased in size before going through severe bottlenecks and expanding into their current ranges. Secondary contact appears to have been established after the last glacial maximum. The severity of the bottlenecks at the last glacial maximum is indicated by the discrepancy between current effective population sizes (20,000–80,000) and census sizes (5–50 million birds) of the two species. The recent divergence time challenges the supposition that avian speciation is a relatively slow process with extended times for intrinsic postzygotic reproductive barriers to evolve. Our study emphasizes the importance of using genome-wide data to unravel tangled demographic histories. Moreover, it constitutes one of the first examples of the inference of divergence history from genome-wide data in non-model species. PMID:24244198

Demographic divergence history of pied flycatcher and collared flycatcher inferred from whole-genome re-sequencing data.

PubMed

Nadachowska-Brzyska, Krystyna; Burri, Reto; Olason, Pall I; Kawakami, Takeshi; Smeds, Linnéa; Ellegren, Hans

2013-11-01

Profound knowledge of demographic history is a prerequisite for the understanding and inference of processes involved in the evolution of population differentiation and speciation. Together with new coalescent-based methods, the recent availability of genome-wide data enables investigation of differentiation and divergence processes at unprecedented depth. We combined two powerful approaches, full Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis (ABC) and pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent modeling (PSMC), to reconstruct the demographic history of the split between two avian speciation model species, the pied flycatcher and collared flycatcher. Using whole-genome re-sequencing data from 20 individuals, we investigated 15 demographic models including different levels and patterns of gene flow, and changes in effective population size over time. ABC provided high support for recent (mode 0.3 my, range <0.7 my) species divergence, declines in effective population size of both species since their initial divergence, and unidirectional recent gene flow from pied flycatcher into collared flycatcher. The estimated divergence time and population size changes, supported by PSMC results, suggest that the ancestral species persisted through one of the glacial periods of middle Pleistocene and then split into two large populations that first increased in size before going through severe bottlenecks and expanding into their current ranges. Secondary contact appears to have been established after the last glacial maximum. The severity of the bottlenecks at the last glacial maximum is indicated by the discrepancy between current effective population sizes (20,000-80,000) and census sizes (5-50 million birds) of the two species. The recent divergence time challenges the supposition that avian speciation is a relatively slow process with extended times for intrinsic postzygotic reproductive barriers to evolve. Our study emphasizes the importance of using genome-wide data to unravel tangled demographic histories. Moreover, it constitutes one of the first examples of the inference of divergence history from genome-wide data in non-model species.

Major clades of Agaricales: a multilocus phylogenetic overview.

Treesearch

P. Brandon Matheny; Judd M. Curtis; Valerie Hofstetter; M. Catherine Aime; Jean-Marc Moncalvo; Zai-Wei Ge; Zhu-Liang Yang; Joseph F. Ammirati; Timothy J. Baroni; Neale L. Bougher; Karen W. Lodge Hughes; Richard W. Kerrigan; Michelle T. Seidl; Aanen; Matthew Duur K. DeNitis; Graciela M. Daniele; Dennis E. Desjardin; Bradley R. Kropp; Lorelei L. Norvell; Andrew Parker; Else C. Vellinga; Rytas Vilgalys; David S. Hibbett

2006-01-01

An overview of the phylogeny of the Agaricales is presented based on a multilocus analysis of a six-gene region supermatrix. Bayesian analyses of 5611 nucleotide characters of rpb1, rpb1-intron 2, rpb2 and 18S, 25S, and 5.8S ribosomal RNA genes recovered six major clades, which are recognized informally and labeled the Agaricoid, Tricholomatoid, Marasmioid, Pluteoid,...

A Bayesian algorithm for detecting differentially expressed proteins and its application in breast cancer research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santra, Tapesh; Delatola, Eleni Ioanna

2016-07-01

Presence of considerable noise and missing data points make analysis of mass-spectrometry (MS) based proteomic data a challenging task. The missing values in MS data are caused by the inability of MS machines to reliably detect proteins whose abundances fall below the detection limit. We developed a Bayesian algorithm that exploits this knowledge and uses missing data points as a complementary source of information to the observed protein intensities in order to find differentially expressed proteins by analysing MS based proteomic data. We compared its accuracy with many other methods using several simulated datasets. It consistently outperformed other methods. We then used it to analyse proteomic screens of a breast cancer (BC) patient cohort. It revealed large differences between the proteomic landscapes of triple negative and Luminal A, which are the most and least aggressive types of BC. Unexpectedly, majority of these differences could be attributed to the direct transcriptional activity of only seven transcription factors some of which are known to be inactive in triple negative BC. We also identified two new proteins which significantly correlated with the survival of BC patients, and therefore may have potential diagnostic/prognostic values.

Trophic interactions between native and introduced fish species in a littoral fish community.

PubMed

Monroy, M; Maceda-Veiga, A; Caiola, N; De Sostoa, A

2014-11-01

The trophic interactions between 15 native and two introduced fish species, silverside Odontesthes bonariensis and rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss, collected in a major fishery area at Lake Titicaca were explored by integrating traditional ecological knowledge and stable-isotope analyses (SIA). SIA suggested the existence of six trophic groups in this fish community based on δ(13)C and δ(15)N signatures. This was supported by ecological evidence illustrating marked spatial segregation between groups, but a similar trophic level for most of the native groups. Based on Bayesian ellipse analyses, niche overlap appeared to occur between small O. bonariensis (<90 mm) and benthopelagic native species (31.6%), and between the native pelagic killifish Orestias ispi and large O. bonariensis (39%) or O. mykiss (19.7%). In addition, Bayesian mixing models suggested that O. ispi and epipelagic species are likely to be the main prey items for the two introduced fish species. This study reveals a trophic link between native and introduced fish species, and demonstrates the utility of combining both SIA and traditional ecological knowledge to understand trophic relationships between fish species with similar feeding habits. © 2014 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Sensitivity analyses for sparse-data problems-using weakly informative bayesian priors.

PubMed

Hamra, Ghassan B; MacLehose, Richard F; Cole, Stephen R

2013-03-01

Sparse-data problems are common, and approaches are needed to evaluate the sensitivity of parameter estimates based on sparse data. We propose a Bayesian approach that uses weakly informative priors to quantify sensitivity of parameters to sparse data. The weakly informative prior is based on accumulated evidence regarding the expected magnitude of relationships using relative measures of disease association. We illustrate the use of weakly informative priors with an example of the association of lifetime alcohol consumption and head and neck cancer. When data are sparse and the observed information is weak, a weakly informative prior will shrink parameter estimates toward the prior mean. Additionally, the example shows that when data are not sparse and the observed information is not weak, a weakly informative prior is not influential. Advancements in implementation of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation make this sensitivity analysis easily accessible to the practicing epidemiologist.

Sensitivity Analyses for Sparse-Data Problems—Using Weakly Informative Bayesian Priors

PubMed Central

Hamra, Ghassan B.; MacLehose, Richard F.; Cole, Stephen R.

2013-01-01

Sparse-data problems are common, and approaches are needed to evaluate the sensitivity of parameter estimates based on sparse data. We propose a Bayesian approach that uses weakly informative priors to quantify sensitivity of parameters to sparse data. The weakly informative prior is based on accumulated evidence regarding the expected magnitude of relationships using relative measures of disease association. We illustrate the use of weakly informative priors with an example of the association of lifetime alcohol consumption and head and neck cancer. When data are sparse and the observed information is weak, a weakly informative prior will shrink parameter estimates toward the prior mean. Additionally, the example shows that when data are not sparse and the observed information is not weak, a weakly informative prior is not influential. Advancements in implementation of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation make this sensitivity analysis easily accessible to the practicing epidemiologist. PMID:23337241

A phylotranscriptomic backbone of the orb-weaving spider family Araneidae (Arachnida, Araneae) supported by multiple methodological approaches.

PubMed

Kallal, Robert J; Fernández, Rosa; Giribet, Gonzalo; Hormiga, Gustavo

2018-04-07

The orb-weaving spider family Araneidae is extremely diverse (>3100 spp.) and its members can be charismatic terrestrial arthropods, many of them recognizable by their iconic orbicular snare web, such as the common garden spiders. Despite considerable effort to better understand their backbone relationships based on multiple sources of data (morphological, behavioral and molecular), pervasive low support remains in recent studies. In addition, no overarching phylogeny of araneids is available to date, hampering further comparative work. In this study, we analyze the transcriptomes of 33 taxa, including 19 araneids - 12 of them new to this study - representing most of the core family lineages, to examine the relationships within the family using genomic-scale datasets resulting from various methodological treatments, namely ortholog selection and gene occupancy as a measure of matrix completion. Six matrices were constructed to assess these effects by varying orthology inference method and gene occupancy threshold. Orthology methods used are the benchmarking tool BUSCO and the tree-based method UPhO; three gene occupancy thresholds (45%, 65%, 85%) were used to assess the effect of missing data. Gene tree and species tree-based methods (including multi-species coalescent and concatenation approaches, as well as maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference) were used totalling 17 analytical treatments. The monophyly of Araneidae and the placement of core araneid lineages were supported, together with some previously unsound backbone divergences; these include high support for Zygiellinae as the earliest diverging subfamily (followed by Nephilinae), the placement of Gasteracanthinae as sister group to Cyclosa and close relatives, and close relationships between the Araneus + Neoscona clade and Cyrtophorinae + Argiopinae clade. Incongruences were relegated to short branches in the clade comprising Cyclosa and its close relatives. We found congruence between most of the completed analyses, with minimal topological effects from occupancy/missing data and orthology assessment. The resulting number of genes by certain combinations of orthology and occupancy thresholds being analyzed had the greatest effect on the resulting trees, with anomalous outcomes recovered from analysis of lower numbers of genes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal Phylogenetic Analysis and Molecular Characterisation of Infectious Bursal Disease Viruses Based on the VP2 Hyper-Variable Region

PubMed Central

Dolz, Roser; Valle, Rosa; Perera, Carmen L.; Bertran, Kateri; Frías, Maria T.; Majó, Natàlia; Ganges, Llilianne; Pérez, Lester J.

2013-01-01

Background Infectious bursal disease is a highly contagious and acute viral disease caused by the infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV); it affects all major poultry producing areas of the world. The current study was designed to rigorously measure the global phylogeographic dynamics of IBDV strains to gain insight into viral population expansion as well as the emergence, spread and pattern of the geographical structure of very virulent IBDV (vvIBDV) strains. Methodology/Principal Findings Sequences of the hyper-variable region of the VP2 (HVR-VP2) gene from IBDV strains isolated from diverse geographic locations were obtained from the GenBank database; Cuban sequences were obtained in the current work. All sequences were analysed by Bayesian phylogeographic analysis, implemented in the Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis Sampling Trees (BEAST), Bayesian Tip-association Significance testing (BaTS) and Spatial Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Evolutionary Dynamics (SPREAD) software packages. Selection pressure on the HVR-VP2 was also assessed. The phylogeographic association-trait analysis showed that viruses sampled from individual countries tend to cluster together, suggesting a geographic pattern for IBDV strains. Spatial analysis from this study revealed that strains carrying sequences that were linked to increased virulence of IBDV appeared in Iran in 1981 and spread to Western Europe (Belgium) in 1987, Africa (Egypt) around 1990, East Asia (China and Japan) in 1993, the Caribbean Region (Cuba) by 1995 and South America (Brazil) around 2000. Selection pressure analysis showed that several codons in the HVR-VP2 region were under purifying selection. Conclusions/Significance To our knowledge, this work is the first study applying the Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction approach to analyse the emergence and spread of vvIBDV strains worldwide. PMID:23805195

Spatiotemporal Phylogenetic Analysis and Molecular Characterisation of Infectious Bursal Disease Viruses Based on the VP2 Hyper-Variable Region.

PubMed

Alfonso-Morales, Abdulahi; Martínez-Pérez, Orlando; Dolz, Roser; Valle, Rosa; Perera, Carmen L; Bertran, Kateri; Frías, Maria T; Majó, Natàlia; Ganges, Llilianne; Pérez, Lester J

2013-01-01

Infectious bursal disease is a highly contagious and acute viral disease caused by the infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV); it affects all major poultry producing areas of the world. The current study was designed to rigorously measure the global phylogeographic dynamics of IBDV strains to gain insight into viral population expansion as well as the emergence, spread and pattern of the geographical structure of very virulent IBDV (vvIBDV) strains. Sequences of the hyper-variable region of the VP2 (HVR-VP2) gene from IBDV strains isolated from diverse geographic locations were obtained from the GenBank database; Cuban sequences were obtained in the current work. All sequences were analysed by Bayesian phylogeographic analysis, implemented in the Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis Sampling Trees (BEAST), Bayesian Tip-association Significance testing (BaTS) and Spatial Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Evolutionary Dynamics (SPREAD) software packages. Selection pressure on the HVR-VP2 was also assessed. The phylogeographic association-trait analysis showed that viruses sampled from individual countries tend to cluster together, suggesting a geographic pattern for IBDV strains. Spatial analysis from this study revealed that strains carrying sequences that were linked to increased virulence of IBDV appeared in Iran in 1981 and spread to Western Europe (Belgium) in 1987, Africa (Egypt) around 1990, East Asia (China and Japan) in 1993, the Caribbean Region (Cuba) by 1995 and South America (Brazil) around 2000. Selection pressure analysis showed that several codons in the HVR-VP2 region were under purifying selection. To our knowledge, this work is the first study applying the Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction approach to analyse the emergence and spread of vvIBDV strains worldwide.

A Bayesian model averaging approach with non-informative priors for cost-effectiveness analyses.

PubMed

Conigliani, Caterina

2010-07-20

We consider the problem of assessing new and existing technologies for their cost-effectiveness in the case where data on both costs and effects are available from a clinical trial, and we address it by means of the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve. The main difficulty in these analyses is that cost data usually exhibit highly skew and heavy-tailed distributions, so that it can be extremely difficult to produce realistic probabilistic models for the underlying population distribution. Here, in order to integrate the uncertainty about the model into the analysis of cost data and into cost-effectiveness analyses, we consider an approach based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in the particular case of weak prior informations about the unknown parameters of the different models involved in the procedure. The main consequence of this assumption is that the marginal densities required by BMA are undetermined. However, in accordance with the theory of partial Bayes factors and in particular of fractional Bayes factors, we suggest replacing each marginal density with a ratio of integrals that can be efficiently computed via path sampling. Copyright (c) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Rate of Bubble Coalescence following Quasi-Static Approach: Screening and Neutralization of the Electric Double Layer

PubMed Central

Katsir, Yael; Marmur, Abraham

2014-01-01

Air-bubble coalescence in aqueous electrolytic solutions, following quasi-static approach, was studied in order to understand its slow rate in purified water and high rate in electrolytic solutions. The former is found to be due to surface charges, originating from the speciation of dissolved CO2, which sustain the electric double layer repulsion. Rapid coalescence in electrolytic solutions is shown to occur via two different mechanisms: (1) neutralization of the carbonaceous, charged species by acids; or (2) screening of the repulsive charge effects by salts and bases. The results do not indicate any ion specificity. They can be explained within the DLVO theory for the van der Waals and electric double layer interactions between particles, in contrast to observations of coalescence following dynamic approach. The present conclusions should serve as a reference point to understanding the dynamic behavior. PMID:24589528

Identifying predictors of time-inhomogeneous viral evolutionary processes.

PubMed

Bielejec, Filip; Baele, Guy; Rodrigo, Allen G; Suchard, Marc A; Lemey, Philippe

2016-07-01

Various factors determine the rate at which mutations are generated and fixed in viral genomes. Viral evolutionary rates may vary over the course of a single persistent infection and can reflect changes in replication rates and selective dynamics. Dedicated statistical inference approaches are required to understand how the complex interplay of these processes shapes the genetic diversity and divergence in viral populations. Although evolutionary models accommodating a high degree of complexity can now be formalized, adequately informing these models by potentially sparse data, and assessing the association of the resulting estimates with external predictors, remains a major challenge. In this article, we present a novel Bayesian evolutionary inference method, which integrates multiple potential predictors and tests their association with variation in the absolute rates of synonymous and non-synonymous substitutions along the evolutionary history. We consider clinical and virological measures as predictors, but also changes in population size trajectories that are simultaneously inferred using coalescent modelling. We demonstrate the potential of our method in an application to within-host HIV-1 sequence data sampled throughout the infection of multiple patients. While analyses of individual patient populations lack statistical power, we detect significant evidence for an abrupt drop in non-synonymous rates in late stage infection and a more gradual increase in synonymous rates over the course of infection in a joint analysis across all patients. The former is predicted by the immune relaxation hypothesis while the latter may be in line with increasing replicative fitness during the asymptomatic stage.

The space of ultrametric phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Gavryushkin, Alex; Drummond, Alexei J

2016-08-21

The reliability of a phylogenetic inference method from genomic sequence data is ensured by its statistical consistency. Bayesian inference methods produce a sample of phylogenetic trees from the posterior distribution given sequence data. Hence the question of statistical consistency of such methods is equivalent to the consistency of the summary of the sample. More generally, statistical consistency is ensured by the tree space used to analyse the sample. In this paper, we consider two standard parameterisations of phylogenetic time-trees used in evolutionary models: inter-coalescent interval lengths and absolute times of divergence events. For each of these parameterisations we introduce a natural metric space on ultrametric phylogenetic trees. We compare the introduced spaces with existing models of tree space and formulate several formal requirements that a metric space on phylogenetic trees must possess in order to be a satisfactory space for statistical analysis, and justify them. We show that only a few known constructions of the space of phylogenetic trees satisfy these requirements. However, our results suggest that these basic requirements are not enough to distinguish between the two metric spaces we introduce and that the choice between metric spaces requires additional properties to be considered. Particularly, that the summary tree minimising the square distance to the trees from the sample might be different for different parameterisations. This suggests that further fundamental insight is needed into the problem of statistical consistency of phylogenetic inference methods. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of phylogenomic data and coalescent species-tree methods for resolving difficult nodes in the phylogeny of advanced snakes (Serpentes: Caenophidia).

PubMed

Pyron, R Alexander; Hendry, Catriona R; Chou, Vincent M; Lemmon, Emily M; Lemmon, Alan R; Burbrink, Frank T

2014-12-01

Next-generation genomic sequencing promises to quickly and cheaply resolve remaining contentious nodes in the Tree of Life, and facilitates species-tree estimation while taking into account stochastic genealogical discordance among loci. Recent methods for estimating species trees bypass full likelihood-based estimates of the multi-species coalescent, and approximate the true species-tree using simpler summary metrics. These methods converge on the true species-tree with sufficient genomic sampling, even in the anomaly zone. However, no studies have yet evaluated their efficacy on a large-scale phylogenomic dataset, and compared them to previous concatenation strategies. Here, we generate such a dataset for Caenophidian snakes, a group with >2500 species that contains several rapid radiations that were poorly resolved with fewer loci. We generate sequence data for 333 single-copy nuclear loci with ∼100% coverage (∼0% missing data) for 31 major lineages. We estimate phylogenies using neighbor joining, maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and three summary species-tree approaches (NJst, STAR, and MP-EST). All methods yield similar resolution and support for most nodes. However, not all methods support monophyly of Caenophidia, with Acrochordidae placed as the sister taxon to Pythonidae in some analyses. Thus, phylogenomic species-tree estimation may occasionally disagree with well-supported relationships from concatenated analyses of small numbers of nuclear or mitochondrial genes, a consideration for future studies. In contrast for at least two diverse, rapid radiations (Lamprophiidae and Colubridae), phylogenomic data and species-tree inference do little to improve resolution and support. Thus, certain nodes may lack strong signal, and larger datasets and more sophisticated analyses may still fail to resolve them. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian approach for counting experiment statistics applied to a neutrino point source analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bose, D.; Brayeur, L.; Casier, M.; de Vries, K. D.; Golup, G.; van Eijndhoven, N.

2013-12-01

In this paper we present a model independent analysis method following Bayesian statistics to analyse data from a generic counting experiment and apply it to the search for neutrinos from point sources. We discuss a test statistic defined following a Bayesian framework that will be used in the search for a signal. In case no signal is found, we derive an upper limit without the introduction of approximations. The Bayesian approach allows us to obtain the full probability density function for both the background and the signal rate. As such, we have direct access to any signal upper limit. The upper limit derivation directly compares with a frequentist approach and is robust in the case of low-counting observations. Furthermore, it allows also to account for previous upper limits obtained by other analyses via the concept of prior information without the need of the ad hoc application of trial factors. To investigate the validity of the presented Bayesian approach, we have applied this method to the public IceCube 40-string configuration data for 10 nearby blazars and we have obtained a flux upper limit, which is in agreement with the upper limits determined via a frequentist approach. Furthermore, the upper limit obtained compares well with the previously published result of IceCube, using the same data set.

Examination of ductile spall failure through direct numerical simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, Richard

2017-06-01

Direct numerical simulation is used to examine the growth and coalescence of a random population of voids leading to spall failure. Void nucleating particles are explicitly represented in the initial geometry, and the arbitrary Lagrange-Eulerian finite element code tracks the void evolution to create the spall surface. The flow fields capture strain localization associated with void interaction at low porosities and ligament necking at final coalescence. Simulations are run to assess the influence of material strain hardening and strain rate sensitivity on void growth and coalescence. These analyses also provide the evolution of longitudinal stress and the energy dissipated, and they reveal a length scale associated with the spall. Additional calculations are performed to examine the influence of loading pulse shape on spall behavior for triangular shaped pressure loading. A dependence of spall scab thickness on pulse shape is determined. These results show localization delayed until porosities reach a few percent and they demonstrate a consistent stress versus porosity relation. The simulations also provide a direct correlation between the spall stress history and the free surface velocity, which can aid in understanding stress corrections applied to experimental data.

Ancient lineage, young troglobites: recent colonization of caves by Nesticella spiders.

PubMed

Zhang, Yuanyuan; Li, Shuqiang

2013-09-04

The evolution and origin of cave organisms is a recurring issue in evolutionary studies, but analyses are often hindered by the inaccessibility of caves, morphological convergence, and complex colonization processes. Here we investigated the evolutionary history of Nesticella cave spiders, which are mainly distributed in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China. With comprehensive sampling and phylogenetic and coalescent-based analyses, we investigated the tempo and mode of diversification and the origins of these troglobites. We also aimed to determine which factors have influenced the diversification of this little-known group. Coalescent-based species delimitation validated the 18 species recognized by morphological inspection and also suggested the existence of cryptic lineages. Divergence time estimates suggested that Nesticella cave spiders in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau constituted a monophyletic troglobite clade that originated in the middle Miocene (11.1-18.6 Ma). Although the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau clade was composed exclusively of troglobite species, suggesting an ancient common subterranean ancestor, we favor multiple, independent cave colonizations during the Pleistocene over a single ancient cave colonization event to explain the origin of these cave faunas. The diversification of plateau Nesticella has been greatly influenced by the sequential uplift of the plateau and likely reflects multiple cave colonizations over time by epigean ancestors during Pleistocene glacial advances. We concluded that plateau cave Nesticella represent an ancient group of spiders, but with young troglobite lineages that invaded caves only recently. The absence of extant epigean relatives and nearly complete isolation among caves supported their relict status. Our work highlights the importance of comprehensive sampling for studies of subterranean diversity and the evolution of cave organisms. The existence of potentially cryptic species and the relict status of Nesticella highlight the need to conserve these cave spiders.

Ancient lineage, young troglobites: recent colonization of caves by Nesticella spiders

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The evolution and origin of cave organisms is a recurring issue in evolutionary studies, but analyses are often hindered by the inaccessibility of caves, morphological convergence, and complex colonization processes. Here we investigated the evolutionary history of Nesticella cave spiders, which are mainly distributed in the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau, China. With comprehensive sampling and phylogenetic and coalescent-based analyses, we investigated the tempo and mode of diversification and the origins of these troglobites. We also aimed to determine which factors have influenced the diversification of this little-known group. Results Coalescent-based species delimitation validated the 18 species recognized by morphological inspection and also suggested the existence of cryptic lineages. Divergence time estimates suggested that Nesticella cave spiders in the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau constituted a monophyletic troglobite clade that originated in the middle Miocene (11.1–18.6 Ma). Although the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau clade was composed exclusively of troglobite species, suggesting an ancient common subterranean ancestor, we favor multiple, independent cave colonizations during the Pleistocene over a single ancient cave colonization event to explain the origin of these cave faunas. The diversification of plateau Nesticella has been greatly influenced by the sequential uplift of the plateau and likely reflects multiple cave colonizations over time by epigean ancestors during Pleistocene glacial advances. Conclusions We concluded that plateau cave Nesticella represent an ancient group of spiders, but with young troglobite lineages that invaded caves only recently. The absence of extant epigean relatives and nearly complete isolation among caves supported their relict status. Our work highlights the importance of comprehensive sampling for studies of subterranean diversity and the evolution of cave organisms. The existence of potentially cryptic species and the relict status of Nesticella highlight the need to conserve these cave spiders. PMID:24006950

Inferences of biogeographical histories within subfamily Hyacinthoideae using S-DIVA and Bayesian binary MCMC analysis implemented in RASP (Reconstruct Ancestral State in Phylogenies)

PubMed Central

Ali, Syed Shujait; Yu, Yan; Pfosser, Martin; Wetschnig, Wolfgang

2012-01-01

Background and Aims Subfamily Hyacinthoideae (Hyacinthaceae) comprises more than 400 species. Members are distributed in sub-Saharan Africa, Madagascar, India, eastern Asia, the Mediterranean region and Eurasia. Hyacinthoideae, like many other plant lineages, show disjunct distribution patterns. The aim of this study was to reconstruct the biogeographical history of Hyacinthoideae based on phylogenetic analyses, to find the possible ancestral range of Hyacinthoideae and to identify factors responsible for the current disjunct distribution pattern. Methods Parsimony and Bayesian approaches were applied to obtain phylogenetic trees, based on sequences of the trnL-F region. Biogeographical inferences were obtained by applying statistical dispersal-vicariance analysis (S-DIVA) and Bayesian binary MCMC (BBM) analysis implemented in RASP (Reconstruct Ancestral State in Phylogenies). Key Results S-DIVA and BBM analyses suggest that the Hyacinthoideae clade seem to have originated in sub-Saharan Africa. Dispersal and vicariance played vital roles in creating the disjunct distribution pattern. Results also suggest an early dispersal to the Mediterranean region, and thus the northward route (from sub-Saharan Africa to Mediterranean) of dispersal is plausible for members of subfamily Hyacinthoideae. Conclusions Biogeographical analyses reveal that subfamily Hyacinthoideae has originated in sub-Saharan Africa. S-DIVA indicates an early dispersal event to the Mediterranean region followed by a vicariance event, which resulted in Hyacintheae and Massonieae tribes. By contrast, BBM analysis favours dispersal to the Mediterranean region, eastern Asia and Europe. Biogeographical analysis suggests that sub-Saharan Africa and the Mediterranean region have played vital roles as centres of diversification and radiation within subfamily Hyacinthoideae. In this bimodal distribution pattern, sub-Saharan Africa is the primary centre of diversity and the Mediterranean region is the secondary centre of diversity. Sub-Saharan Africa was the source area for radiation toward Madagascar, the Mediterranean region and India. Radiations occurred from the Mediterranean region to eastern Asia, Europe, western Asia and India. PMID:22039008

Incorporating external evidence in trial-based cost-effectiveness analyses: the use of resampling methods

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) that use patient-specific data from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) are popular, yet such CEAs are criticized because they neglect to incorporate evidence external to the trial. A popular method for quantifying uncertainty in a RCT-based CEA is the bootstrap. The objective of the present study was to further expand the bootstrap method of RCT-based CEA for the incorporation of external evidence. Methods We utilize the Bayesian interpretation of the bootstrap and derive the distribution for the cost and effectiveness outcomes after observing the current RCT data and the external evidence. We propose simple modifications of the bootstrap for sampling from such posterior distributions. Results In a proof-of-concept case study, we use data from a clinical trial and incorporate external evidence on the effect size of treatments to illustrate the method in action. Compared to the parametric models of evidence synthesis, the proposed approach requires fewer distributional assumptions, does not require explicit modeling of the relation between external evidence and outcomes of interest, and is generally easier to implement. A drawback of this approach is potential computational inefficiency compared to the parametric Bayesian methods. Conclusions The bootstrap method of RCT-based CEA can be extended to incorporate external evidence, while preserving its appealing features such as no requirement for parametric modeling of cost and effectiveness outcomes. PMID:24888356

Incorporating external evidence in trial-based cost-effectiveness analyses: the use of resampling methods.

PubMed

Sadatsafavi, Mohsen; Marra, Carlo; Aaron, Shawn; Bryan, Stirling

2014-06-03

Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) that use patient-specific data from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) are popular, yet such CEAs are criticized because they neglect to incorporate evidence external to the trial. A popular method for quantifying uncertainty in a RCT-based CEA is the bootstrap. The objective of the present study was to further expand the bootstrap method of RCT-based CEA for the incorporation of external evidence. We utilize the Bayesian interpretation of the bootstrap and derive the distribution for the cost and effectiveness outcomes after observing the current RCT data and the external evidence. We propose simple modifications of the bootstrap for sampling from such posterior distributions. In a proof-of-concept case study, we use data from a clinical trial and incorporate external evidence on the effect size of treatments to illustrate the method in action. Compared to the parametric models of evidence synthesis, the proposed approach requires fewer distributional assumptions, does not require explicit modeling of the relation between external evidence and outcomes of interest, and is generally easier to implement. A drawback of this approach is potential computational inefficiency compared to the parametric Bayesian methods. The bootstrap method of RCT-based CEA can be extended to incorporate external evidence, while preserving its appealing features such as no requirement for parametric modeling of cost and effectiveness outcomes.

Climate change underlies global demographic, genetic, and cultural transitions in pre-Columbian southern Peru.

PubMed

Fehren-Schmitz, Lars; Haak, Wolfgang; Mächtle, Bertil; Masch, Florian; Llamas, Bastien; Cagigao, Elsa Tomasto; Sossna, Volker; Schittek, Karsten; Isla Cuadrado, Johny; Eitel, Bernhard; Reindel, Markus

2014-07-01

Several archaeological studies in the Central Andes have pointed at the temporal coincidence of climatic fluctuations (both long- and short-term) and episodes of cultural transition and changes of socioeconomic structures throughout the pre-Columbian period. Although most scholars explain the connection between environmental and cultural changes by the impact of climatic alterations on the capacities of the ecosystems inhabited by pre-Columbian cultures, direct evidence for assumed demographic consequences is missing so far. In this study, we address directly the impact of climatic changes on the spatial population dynamics of the Central Andes. We use a large dataset of pre-Columbian mitochondrial DNA sequences from the northern Rio Grande de Nasca drainage (RGND) in southern Peru, dating from ∼840 BC to 1450 AD. Alternative demographic scenarios are tested using Bayesian serial coalescent simulations in an approximate Bayesian computational framework. Our results indicate migrations from the lower coastal valleys of southern Peru into the Andean highlands coincident with increasing climate variability at the end of the Nasca culture at ∼640 AD. We also find support for a back-migration from the highlands to the coast coincident with droughts in the southeastern Andean highlands and improvement of climatic conditions on the coast after the decline of the Wari and Tiwanaku empires (∼1200 AD), leading to a genetic homogenization in the RGND and probably southern Peru as a whole.

Climate change underlies global demographic, genetic, and cultural transitions in pre-Columbian southern Peru

PubMed Central

Fehren-Schmitz, Lars; Haak, Wolfgang; Mächtle, Bertil; Masch, Florian; Llamas, Bastien; Tomasto Cagigao, Elsa; Sossna, Volker; Schittek, Karsten; Isla Cuadrado, Johny; Eitel, Bernhard; Reindel, Markus

2014-01-01

Several archaeological studies in the Central Andes have pointed at the temporal coincidence of climatic fluctuations (both long- and short-term) and episodes of cultural transition and changes of socioeconomic structures throughout the pre-Columbian period. Although most scholars explain the connection between environmental and cultural changes by the impact of climatic alterations on the capacities of the ecosystems inhabited by pre-Columbian cultures, direct evidence for assumed demographic consequences is missing so far. In this study, we address directly the impact of climatic changes on the spatial population dynamics of the Central Andes. We use a large dataset of pre-Columbian mitochondrial DNA sequences from the northern Rio Grande de Nasca drainage (RGND) in southern Peru, dating from ∼840 BC to 1450 AD. Alternative demographic scenarios are tested using Bayesian serial coalescent simulations in an approximate Bayesian computational framework. Our results indicate migrations from the lower coastal valleys of southern Peru into the Andean highlands coincident with increasing climate variability at the end of the Nasca culture at ∼640 AD. We also find support for a back-migration from the highlands to the coast coincident with droughts in the southeastern Andean highlands and improvement of climatic conditions on the coast after the decline of the Wari and Tiwanaku empires (∼1200 AD), leading to a genetic homogenization in the RGND and probably southern Peru as a whole. PMID:24979787

Is black-hole ringdown a memory of its progenitor?

PubMed

Kamaretsos, Ioannis; Hannam, Mark; Sathyaprakash, B S

2012-10-05

We perform an extensive numerical study of coalescing black-hole binaries to understand the gravitational-wave spectrum of quasinormal modes excited in the merged black hole. Remarkably, we find that the masses and spins of the progenitor are clearly encoded in the mode spectrum of the ringdown signal. Some of the mode amplitudes carry the signature of the binary's mass ratio, while others depend critically on the spins. Simulations of precessing binaries suggest that our results carry over to generic systems. Using Bayesian inference, we demonstrate that it is possible to accurately measure the mass ratio and a proper combination of spins even when the binary is itself invisible to a detector. Using a mapping of the binary masses and spins to the final black-hole spin allows us to further extract the spin components of the progenitor. Our results could have tremendous implications for gravitational astronomy by facilitating novel tests of general relativity using merging black holes.

Origin of Clothing Lice Indicates Early Clothing Use by Anatomically Modern Humans in Africa

PubMed Central

Toups, Melissa A.; Kitchen, Andrew; Light, Jessica E.; Reed, David L.

2011-01-01

Clothing use is an important modern behavior that contributed to the successful expansion of humans into higher latitudes and cold climates. Previous research suggests that clothing use originated anywhere between 40,000 and 3 Ma, though there is little direct archaeological, fossil, or genetic evidence to support more specific estimates. Since clothing lice evolved from head louse ancestors once humans adopted clothing, dating the emergence of clothing lice may provide more specific estimates of the origin of clothing use. Here, we use a Bayesian coalescent modeling approach to estimate that clothing lice diverged from head louse ancestors at least by 83,000 and possibly as early as 170,000 years ago. Our analysis suggests that the use of clothing likely originated with anatomically modern humans in Africa and reinforces a broad trend of modern human developments in Africa during the Middle to Late Pleistocene. PMID:20823373

Growth Mechanism of Lipid-Based Nanodiscs -- a Model Membrane for Studying Kinetics of Particle Coalescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nieh, Mu-Ping; Dizon, Anthony; Li, Ming; Hu, Andrew; Fan, Tai-Hsi

2012-02-01

Lipid-based nanodiscs composed of long- and short- chain lipids [namely, dimyristoyl phosphatidylcholine (DMPC), dimyristoyl phosphatidylglycerol (DMPG) and dihexanoyl phosphatidylcholine (DHPC)] constantly form at high lipid concentrations and at low temperatures (i.e., below the melting transition temperature of DMPC, TM). The initial size of these nanodiscs (at high total lipid concentration, CL> 20 wt.%) is relatively uniform and of similar dimension (according to dynamic light scattering and small angle neutron scattering experiments), seemingly independent of thermal history. Upon dilution, the nanodiscs slowly coalesce and grow in size with time irreversibly. Our preliminary result shows that the growth rate strongly depends on several parameters such as charge density, CL and temperature. We have also found that the nanodisc coalescence is a reaction limit instead of diffusion limit process through a time-resolved study.

Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Cronbach's Coefficient Alpha to Evaluate Informative Hypotheses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Okada, Kensuke

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a new method to evaluate informative hypotheses for meta-analysis of Cronbach's coefficient alpha using a Bayesian approach. The coefficient alpha is one of the most widely used reliability indices. In meta-analyses of reliability, researchers typically form specific informative hypotheses beforehand, such as "alpha of…

Evidence of major genes affecting stress response in rainbow trout using Bayesian methods of complex segregation analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As a first step towards the genetic mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTL) affecting stress response variation in rainbow trout, we performed complex segregation analyses (CSA) fitting mixed inheritance models of plasma cortisol using Bayesian methods in large full-sib families of rainbow trout. ...

Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilkey, Kelly M.; Myers, Jerry G.; McRae, Michael P.; Griffin, Elise A.; Kallrui, Aditya S.

2012-01-01

The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

Development of a Bayesian response-adaptive trial design for the Dexamethasone for Excessive Menstruation study.

PubMed

Holm Hansen, Christian; Warner, Pamela; Parker, Richard A; Walker, Brian R; Critchley, Hilary Od; Weir, Christopher J

2017-12-01

It is often unclear what specific adaptive trial design features lead to an efficient design which is also feasible to implement. This article describes the preparatory simulation study for a Bayesian response-adaptive dose-finding trial design. Dexamethasone for Excessive Menstruation aims to assess the efficacy of Dexamethasone in reducing excessive menstrual bleeding and to determine the best dose for further study. To maximise learning about the dose response, patients receive placebo or an active dose with randomisation probabilities adapting based on evidence from patients already recruited. The dose-response relationship is estimated using a flexible Bayesian Normal Dynamic Linear Model. Several competing design options were considered including: number of doses, proportion assigned to placebo, adaptation criterion, and number and timing of adaptations. We performed a fractional factorial study using SAS software to simulate virtual trial data for candidate adaptive designs under a variety of scenarios and to invoke WinBUGS for Bayesian model estimation. We analysed the simulated trial results using Normal linear models to estimate the effects of each design feature on empirical type I error and statistical power. Our readily-implemented approach using widely available statistical software identified a final design which performed robustly across a range of potential trial scenarios.

Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data.

PubMed

Guo, Xuan; Liu, Bing; Chen, Le; Chen, Guantao; Pan, Yi; Zhang, Jing

2016-01-01

This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM), Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM), and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM), and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

Getting a Kick Out of Numerical Relativity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, John G.; Centrella, Joan; Dale, Choi; Koppitz, Michael; vanMeter, James R.; Miller, M. Coleman

2005-01-01

Recent developments in numerical relativity have made it possible to follow reliably the coalescence of two black holes from near the innermost stable circular orbit to final ringdown. This opens up a wide variety of exciting astrophysical applications of these simulations. Chief among these is the net kick received when two unequal mass or spinning black holes merge. The magnitude of this kick has bearing on the production and growth of supermassive black holes during the epoch of structure formation; and on the retention of black holes in stellar clusters. Here we report the first accurate numerical calculation of this kick, for two nonspinning black holes in a 1.5:1 mass ratio, which is expected based on analytic considerations to give a significant fraction of the maximum possible recoil. Our estimated kick is 10(exp 5) km/s with an error of less than 10%. This is intermediate between the estimates from two recent post-Newtonian analyses and suggests that at redshifts z greater than or approx. equal to 10, halos with masses less than or approx. equal to 10(exp 9) Solar Mass will have difficulty retaining coalesced black holes after major mergers.

Tipping point analysis of atmospheric oxygen concentration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Livina, V. N.; Forbes, A. B.; Vaz Martins, T. M.

2015-03-15

We apply tipping point analysis to nine observational oxygen concentration records around the globe, analyse their dynamics and perform projections under possible future scenarios, leading to oxygen deficiency in the atmosphere. The analysis is based on statistical physics framework with stochastic modelling, where we represent the observed data as a composition of deterministic and stochastic components estimated from the observed data using Bayesian and wavelet techniques.

Program SPACECAP: software for estimating animal density using spatially explicit capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hines, James E.; Singh, Pallavi; Jathanna, Devcharan; Kumar, N. Samba; Karanth, K. Ullas

2012-01-01

1. The advent of spatially explicit capture-recapture models is changing the way ecologists analyse capture-recapture data. However, the advantages offered by these new models are not fully exploited because they can be difficult to implement. 2. To address this need, we developed a user-friendly software package, created within the R programming environment, called SPACECAP. This package implements Bayesian spatially explicit hierarchical models to analyse spatial capture-recapture data. 3. Given that a large number of field biologists prefer software with graphical user interfaces for analysing their data, SPACECAP is particularly useful as a tool to increase the adoption of Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture methods in practice.

Bayesian generalized linear mixed modeling of Tuberculosis using informative priors.

PubMed

Ojo, Oluwatobi Blessing; Lougue, Siaka; Woldegerima, Woldegebriel Assefa

2017-01-01

TB is rated as one of the world's deadliest diseases and South Africa ranks 9th out of the 22 countries with hardest hit of TB. Although many pieces of research have been carried out on this subject, this paper steps further by inculcating past knowledge into the model, using Bayesian approach with informative prior. Bayesian statistics approach is getting popular in data analyses. But, most applications of Bayesian inference technique are limited to situations of non-informative prior, where there is no solid external information about the distribution of the parameter of interest. The main aim of this study is to profile people living with TB in South Africa. In this paper, identical regression models are fitted for classical and Bayesian approach both with non-informative and informative prior, using South Africa General Household Survey (GHS) data for the year 2014. For the Bayesian model with informative prior, South Africa General Household Survey dataset for the year 2011 to 2013 are used to set up priors for the model 2014.

Species limits in the Morelet's Alligator lizard (Anguidae: Gerrhonotinae).

PubMed

Solano-Zavaleta, Israel; Nieto-Montes de Oca, Adrián

2018-03-01

The widely distributed, Central American anguid lizard Mesaspis moreletii is currently recognized as a polytypic species with five subspecies (M. m. fulvus, M. m. moreletii, M. m. rafaeli, M. m. salvadorensis, and M. m. temporalis). We reevaluated the species limits within Mesaspis moreletii using DNA sequences of one mitochondrial and three nuclear genes. The multi-locus data set included samples of all of the subspecies of M. moreletii, the other species of Mesaspis in Central America (M. cuchumatanus and M. monticola), and some populations assignable to M. moreletii but of uncertain subspecific identity from Honduras and Nicaragua. We first used a tree-based method for delimiting species based on mtDNA data to identify potential evolutionary independent lineages, and then analized the multilocus dataset with two species delimitation methods that use the multispecies coalescent model to evaluate different competing species delimitation models: the Bayes factors species delimitation method (BFD) implemented in ∗ BEAST, and the Bayesian Phylogenetics and Phylogeography (BP&P) method. Our results suggest that M. m. moreletii, M. m. rafaeli, M. m. salvadorensis, and M. m. temporalis represent distinct evolutionary independent lineages, and that the populations of uncertain status from Honduras and Nicaragua may represent additional undescribed species. Our results also suggest that M. m. fulvus is a synonym of M. m. moreletii. The biogeography of the Central American lineages of Mesaspis is discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Decision Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berliner, M.

2017-12-01

Bayesian statistical decision theory offers a natural framework for decision-policy making in the presence of uncertainty. Key advantages of the approach include efficient incorporation of information and observations. However, in complicated settings it is very difficult, perhaps essentially impossible, to formalize the mathematical inputs needed in the approach. Nevertheless, using the approach as a template is useful for decision support; that is, organizing and communicating our analyses. Bayesian hierarchical modeling is valuable in quantifying and managing uncertainty such cases. I review some aspects of the idea emphasizing statistical model development and use in the context of sea-level rise.

Finding the best resolution for the Kingman-Tajima coalescent: theory and applications.

PubMed

Sainudiin, Raazesh; Stadler, Tanja; Véber, Amandine

2015-05-01

Many summary statistics currently used in population genetics and in phylogenetics depend only on a rather coarse resolution of the underlying tree (the number of extant lineages, for example). Hence, for computational purposes, working directly on these resolutions appears to be much more efficient. However, this approach seems to have been overlooked in the past. In this paper, we describe six different resolutions of the Kingman-Tajima coalescent together with the corresponding Markov chains, which are essential for inference methods. Two of the resolutions are the well-known n-coalescent and the lineage death process due to Kingman. Two other resolutions were mentioned by Kingman and Tajima, but never explicitly formalized. Another two resolutions are novel, and complete the picture of a multi-resolution coalescent. For all of them, we provide the forward and backward transition probabilities, the probability of visiting a given state as well as the probability of a given realization of the full Markov chain. We also provide a description of the state-space that highlights the computational gain obtained by working with lower-resolution objects. Finally, we give several examples of summary statistics that depend on a coarser resolution of Kingman's coalescent, on which simulations are usually based.

Time-series analyses of air pollution and mortality in the United States: a subsampling approach.

PubMed

Moolgavkar, Suresh H; McClellan, Roger O; Dewanji, Anup; Turim, Jay; Luebeck, E Georg; Edwards, Melanie

2013-01-01

Hierarchical Bayesian methods have been used in previous papers to estimate national mean effects of air pollutants on daily deaths in time-series analyses. We obtained maximum likelihood estimates of the common national effects of the criteria pollutants on mortality based on time-series data from ≤ 108 metropolitan areas in the United States. We used a subsampling bootstrap procedure to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates and confidence bounds for common national effects of the criteria pollutants, as measured by the percentage increase in daily mortality associated with a unit increase in daily 24-hr mean pollutant concentration on the previous day, while controlling for weather and temporal trends. We considered five pollutants [PM10, ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2)] in single- and multipollutant analyses. Flexible ambient concentration-response models for the pollutant effects were considered as well. We performed limited sensitivity analyses with different degrees of freedom for time trends. In single-pollutant models, we observed significant associations of daily deaths with all pollutants. The O3 coefficient was highly sensitive to the degree of smoothing of time trends. Among the gases, SO2 and NO2 were most strongly associated with mortality. The flexible ambient concentration-response curve for O3 showed evidence of nonlinearity and a threshold at about 30 ppb. Differences between the results of our analyses and those reported from using the Bayesian approach suggest that estimates of the quantitative impact of pollutants depend on the choice of statistical approach, although results are not directly comparable because they are based on different data. In addition, the estimate of the O3-mortality coefficient depends on the amount of smoothing of time trends.

Neural network modeling and an uncertainty analysis in Bayesian framework: A case study from the KTB borehole site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maiti, Saumen; Tiwari, Ram Krishna

2010-10-01

A new probabilistic approach based on the concept of Bayesian neural network (BNN) learning theory is proposed for decoding litho-facies boundaries from well-log data. We show that how a multi-layer-perceptron neural network model can be employed in Bayesian framework to classify changes in litho-log successions. The method is then applied to the German Continental Deep Drilling Program (KTB) well-log data for classification and uncertainty estimation in the litho-facies boundaries. In this framework, a posteriori distribution of network parameter is estimated via the principle of Bayesian probabilistic theory, and an objective function is minimized following the scaled conjugate gradient optimization scheme. For the model development, we inflict a suitable criterion, which provides probabilistic information by emulating different combinations of synthetic data. Uncertainty in the relationship between the data and the model space is appropriately taken care by assuming a Gaussian a priori distribution of networks parameters (e.g., synaptic weights and biases). Prior to applying the new method to the real KTB data, we tested the proposed method on synthetic examples to examine the sensitivity of neural network hyperparameters in prediction. Within this framework, we examine stability and efficiency of this new probabilistic approach using different kinds of synthetic data assorted with different level of correlated noise. Our data analysis suggests that the designed network topology based on the Bayesian paradigm is steady up to nearly 40% correlated noise; however, adding more noise (˜50% or more) degrades the results. We perform uncertainty analyses on training, validation, and test data sets with and devoid of intrinsic noise by making the Gaussian approximation of the a posteriori distribution about the peak model. We present a standard deviation error-map at the network output corresponding to the three types of the litho-facies present over the entire litho-section of the KTB. The comparisons of maximum a posteriori geological sections constructed here, based on the maximum a posteriori probability distribution, with the available geological information and the existing geophysical findings suggest that the BNN results reveal some additional finer details in the KTB borehole data at certain depths, which appears to be of some geological significance. We also demonstrate that the proposed BNN approach is superior to the conventional artificial neural network in terms of both avoiding "over-fitting" and aiding uncertainty estimation, which are vital for meaningful interpretation of geophysical records. Our analyses demonstrate that the BNN-based approach renders a robust means for the classification of complex changes in the litho-facies successions and thus could provide a useful guide for understanding the crustal inhomogeneity and the structural discontinuity in many other tectonically complex regions.

A semiparametric Bayesian proportional hazards model for interval censored data with frailty effects.

PubMed

Henschel, Volkmar; Engel, Jutta; Hölzel, Dieter; Mansmann, Ulrich

2009-02-10

Multivariate analysis of interval censored event data based on classical likelihood methods is notoriously cumbersome. Likelihood inference for models which additionally include random effects are not available at all. Developed algorithms bear problems for practical users like: matrix inversion, slow convergence, no assessment of statistical uncertainty. MCMC procedures combined with imputation are used to implement hierarchical models for interval censored data within a Bayesian framework. Two examples from clinical practice demonstrate the handling of clustered interval censored event times as well as multilayer random effects for inter-institutional quality assessment. The software developed is called survBayes and is freely available at CRAN. The proposed software supports the solution of complex analyses in many fields of clinical epidemiology as well as health services research.

Characterization of solids deposited on the modular caustic-side solvent extraction unit (MCU) coalescer media removed in October 2014

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fondeur, F.

2016-03-01

In February 2015, Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) received a Strip Effluent (SE) coalescer (FLT-304) from MCU. That coalescer was first installed at MCU in July 2014 and removed in October 2014. While processing approximately 31,400 gallons of strip solution, the pressure drop steadily increased from 1 psi to beyond the administrative limit of 20 psi. The physical and chemical analysis was conducted on this coalescer to determine the mechanism that led to the plugging of this coalescer. Characterization of this coalescer revealed the adsorption of organic containing amines as well as MCU modifier. The amines are probably from themore » decomposition of the suppressor (TiDG) as well as from bacteria. This adsorption may have changed the surface energetics (characteristics) of the coalescer fibers and therefore, their wetting behavior. A very small amount of inorganic solids were found to have deposited on this coalescer (possibly an artifact of cleaning the coalescer with Boric acid. However, we believe that inorganic precipitation, as has been seen in the past, did not play a role in the high pressure drop rise of this coalescer. With regards to the current practice of reducing the radioactive content of the SE coalescer, it is recommended that future SE coalescer should be flushed with 10 mM boric acid which is currently used at MCU. Plugging of the SE coalescer was most likely due to the formation and accumulation of a water-in-oil emulsion that reduced the overall porosity of the coalescer. There is also evidence that a bimodal oil particle distribution may have entered and deposited in the coalescer and caused the initial increase in pressure drop.« less

Field-Controlled Electrical Switch with Liquid Metal.

PubMed

Wissman, James; Dickey, Michael D; Majidi, Carmel

2017-12-01

When immersed in an electrolyte, droplets of Ga-based liquid metal (LM) alloy can be manipulated in ways not possible with conventional electrocapillarity or electrowetting. This study demonstrates how LM electrochemistry can be exploited to coalesce and separate droplets under moderate voltages of ~1-10 V. This novel approach to droplet interaction can be explained with a theory that accounts for oxidation and reduction as well as fluidic instabilities. Based on simulations and experimental analysis, this study finds that droplet separation is governed by a unique limit-point instability that arises from gradients in bipolar electrochemical reactions that lead to gradients in interfacial tension. The LM coalescence and separation are used to create a field-programmable electrical switch. As with conventional relays or flip-flop latch circuits, the system can transition between bistable (separated or coalesced) states, making it useful for memory storage, logic, and shape-programmable circuitry using entirely liquids instead of solid-state materials.

The evolution of autodigestion in the mushroom family Psathyrellaceae (Agaricales) inferred from Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian methods.

PubMed

Nagy, László G; Urban, Alexander; Orstadius, Leif; Papp, Tamás; Larsson, Ellen; Vágvölgyi, Csaba

2010-12-01

Recently developed comparative phylogenetic methods offer a wide spectrum of applications in evolutionary biology, although it is generally accepted that their statistical properties are incompletely known. Here, we examine and compare the statistical power of the ML and Bayesian methods with regard to selection of best-fit models of fruiting-body evolution and hypothesis testing of ancestral states on a real-life data set of a physiological trait (autodigestion) in the family Psathyrellaceae. Our phylogenies are based on the first multigene data set generated for the family. Two different coding regimes (binary and multistate) and two data sets differing in taxon sampling density are examined. The Bayesian method outperformed Maximum Likelihood with regard to statistical power in all analyses. This is particularly evident if the signal in the data is weak, i.e. in cases when the ML approach does not provide support to choose among competing hypotheses. Results based on binary and multistate coding differed only modestly, although it was evident that multistate analyses were less conclusive in all cases. It seems that increased taxon sampling density has favourable effects on inference of ancestral states, while model parameters are influenced to a smaller extent. The model best fitting our data implies that the rate of losses of deliquescence equals zero, although model selection in ML does not provide proper support to reject three of the four candidate models. The results also support the hypothesis that non-deliquescence (lack of autodigestion) has been ancestral in Psathyrellaceae, and that deliquescent fruiting bodies represent the preferred state, having evolved independently several times during evolution. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Are Student Evaluations of Teaching Effectiveness Valid for Measuring Student Learning Outcomes in Business Related Classes? A Neural Network and Bayesian Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Galbraith, Craig S.; Merrill, Gregory B.; Kline, Doug M.

2012-01-01

In this study we investigate the underlying relational structure between student evaluations of teaching effectiveness (SETEs) and achievement of student learning outcomes in 116 business related courses. Utilizing traditional statistical techniques, a neural network analysis and a Bayesian data reduction and classification algorithm, we find…

Genome-wide regression and prediction with the BGLR statistical package.

PubMed

Pérez, Paulino; de los Campos, Gustavo

2014-10-01

Many modern genomic data analyses require implementing regressions where the number of parameters (p, e.g., the number of marker effects) exceeds sample size (n). Implementing these large-p-with-small-n regressions poses several statistical and computational challenges, some of which can be confronted using Bayesian methods. This approach allows integrating various parametric and nonparametric shrinkage and variable selection procedures in a unified and consistent manner. The BGLR R-package implements a large collection of Bayesian regression models, including parametric variable selection and shrinkage methods and semiparametric procedures (Bayesian reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces regressions, RKHS). The software was originally developed for genomic applications; however, the methods implemented are useful for many nongenomic applications as well. The response can be continuous (censored or not) or categorical (either binary or ordinal). The algorithm is based on a Gibbs sampler with scalar updates and the implementation takes advantage of efficient compiled C and Fortran routines. In this article we describe the methods implemented in BGLR, present examples of the use of the package, and discuss practical issues emerging in real-data analysis. Copyright © 2014 by the Genetics Society of America.

A Tutorial in Bayesian Potential Outcomes Mediation Analysis.

PubMed

Miočević, Milica; Gonzalez, Oscar; Valente, Matthew J; MacKinnon, David P

2018-01-01

Statistical mediation analysis is used to investigate intermediate variables in the relation between independent and dependent variables. Causal interpretation of mediation analyses is challenging because randomization of subjects to levels of the independent variable does not rule out the possibility of unmeasured confounders of the mediator to outcome relation. Furthermore, commonly used frequentist methods for mediation analysis compute the probability of the data given the null hypothesis, which is not the probability of a hypothesis given the data as in Bayesian analysis. Under certain assumptions, applying the potential outcomes framework to mediation analysis allows for the computation of causal effects, and statistical mediation in the Bayesian framework gives indirect effects probabilistic interpretations. This tutorial combines causal inference and Bayesian methods for mediation analysis so the indirect and direct effects have both causal and probabilistic interpretations. Steps in Bayesian causal mediation analysis are shown in the application to an empirical example.

Einstein's Gift: Stellar Mass Black Holes in the LIGO Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cadonati, Laura; Georgia Institute of Technology, LIGO-Virgo Collaboration

2017-01-01

The discovery of gravitational waves from the coalescence of black hole binary systems in LIGO has provided the first evidence for heavy stellar mass black holes. In this talk, I will review the observational evidence for black holes in LIGO data, its astrophysical implications and the plans for the near and long term future of ground based gravitational wave detection of black hole binary coalescences.

The problem of estimating recent genetic connectivity in a changing world.

PubMed

Samarasin, Pasan; Shuter, Brian J; Wright, Stephen I; Rodd, F Helen

2017-02-01

Accurate understanding of population connectivity is important to conservation because dispersal can play an important role in population dynamics, microevolution, and assessments of extirpation risk and population rescue. Genetic methods are increasingly used to infer population connectivity because advances in technology have made them more advantageous (e.g., cost effective) relative to ecological methods. Given the reductions in wildlife population connectivity since the Industrial Revolution and more recent drastic reductions from habitat loss, it is important to know the accuracy of and biases in genetic connectivity estimators when connectivity has declined recently. Using simulated data, we investigated the accuracy and bias of 2 common estimators of migration (movement of individuals among populations) rate. We focused on the timing of the connectivity change and the magnitude of that change on the estimates of migration by using a coalescent-based method (Migrate-n) and a disequilibrium-based method (BayesAss). Contrary to expectations, when historically high connectivity had declined recently: (i) both methods over-estimated recent migration rates; (ii) the coalescent-based method (Migrate-n) provided better estimates of recent migration rate than the disequilibrium-based method (BayesAss); (iii) the coalescent-based method did not accurately reflect long-term genetic connectivity. Overall, our results highlight the problems with comparing coalescent and disequilibrium estimates to make inferences about the effects of recent landscape change on genetic connectivity among populations. We found that contrasting these 2 estimates to make inferences about genetic-connectivity changes over time could lead to inaccurate conclusions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

On the energetics of tensile and shear void coalescences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, W. H.; Guo, T. F.

2015-09-01

This paper investigates the mechanisms of tensile and shear void coalescences in ductile materials from energetics perspective. By examining and comparing the elastic and plastic energies of a voided cell throughout its deformation history, the onset of and final coalescence can be distinctly established. This energy-based approach offers a single unified method and criterion for determining the occurrences of both mechanisms. This paper also reports a novel micromechanics model that considers general stress states described by three macroscopic normal stresses and one macroscopic shear stress. Detailed formulation of the model is presented that includes the homogenization-based derivation and implementation of a 4×4 orthogonal transformation matrix, which relates the macroscopic deformation rate of the cell to displacement rates of non-physical degrees-of-freedom (DOFs), and the polar decomposition of the macroscopic deformation gradient tensor which admits the explicit determination of the logarithmic strain measures and rotation angle. In terms of stress ratios, ρ1 (=Σ11 /Σ22) ,ρ2 (=Σ12 /Σ22) ,ρ3 (=Σ33 /Σ22), it is analytically shown that multiple macroscopic stress states {ρ1 ,ρ2 ,ρ3 } can exist that result in the same stress triaxiality T and Lode parameter L. Specifically, it is shown that for a prescribed pair of T and L and in the absence of shear stress, at most six stress states {ρ1 , 0 ,ρ3 } are possible. On the other extreme in the presence of shear stress, an infinite number of stress states is possible, due to the existence of Mohr's circle for this stress state. This model, together with the proposed energy-based criteria, is used to examine void coalescence under multiple stress-state conditions for any given T and L. Numerical results have shown that the presence of shear stress has a significant effect of reducing the effective strains for the onset of and final void coalescences. In addition, a relationship has also been established between shear angle and effective strain at the onset of shear void coalescence.

A taxonomic monograph of Nearctic Scolytus Geoffroy (Coleoptera, Curculionidae, Scolytinae)

PubMed Central

Smith, Sarah M.; Cognato, Anthony I.

2014-01-01

Abstract The Nearctic bark beetle genus Scolytus Geoffroy was revised based in part on a molecular and morphological phylogeny. Monophyly of the native species was tested using mitochondrial (COI) and nuclear (28S, CAD, ArgK) genes and 43 morphological characters in parsimony and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses. Parsimony analyses of molecular and combined datasets provided mixed results while Bayesian analysis recovered most nodes with posterior probabilities >90%. Native hardwood- and conifer-feeding Scolytus species were recovered as paraphyletic. Native Nearctic species were recovered as paraphyletic with hardwood-feeding species sister to Palearctic hardwood-feeding species rather than to native conifer-feeding species. The Nearctic conifer-feeding species were monophyletic. Twenty-five species were recognized. Four new synonyms were discovered: Scolytus praeceps LeConte, 1868 (= Scolytus abietis Blackman, 1934; = Scolytus opacus Blackman, 1934), Scolytus reflexus Blackman, 1934 (= Scolytus virgatus Bright, 1972; = Scolytus wickhami Blackman, 1934). Two species were reinstated: Scolytus fiskei Blackman, 1934 and Scolytus silvaticus Bright, 1972. A diagnosis, description, distribution, host records and images were provided for each species and a key is presented to all species. PMID:25408617

1970s and ‘Patient 0’ HIV-1 genomes illuminate early HIV/AIDS history in North America

PubMed Central

Worobey, Michael; Watts, Thomas D.; McKay, Richard A.; Suchard, Marc A.; Granade, Timothy; Teuwen, Dirk E.; Koblin, Beryl A.; Heneine, Walid; Lemey, Philippe; Jaffe, Harold W.

2017-01-01

The emergence of HIV-1 group M subtype B in North American men who have sex with men (MSM) was a key turning point in the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Phylogenetic studies have suggested cryptic subtype B circulation in the United States (US) throughout the 1970s2,3 and an even older presence in the Caribbean3. However, these timing and geographical inferences, based upon partial HIV-1 genomes that postdate the recognition of AIDS in 1981, remain contentious1,4 and the earliest movements of the virus within the US are unknown. We serologically screened >2000 1970s serum samples and developed a highly sensitive new approach for recovering viral RNA from degraded archival samples. Here, we report eight coding-complete genomes from US serum samples from 1978–79 – eight of the nine oldest HIV-1 group M genomes to date. This early, full-genome ‘snapshot’ reveals the US HIV-1 epidemic exhibited surprisingly extensive genetic diversity in the 1970s but also provides strong evidence of its emergence from a pre-existing Caribbean epidemic. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses estimate the jump to the US at ~1970 and place the ancestral US virus in New York City with 0.99 posterior probability support, strongly suggesting this was the crucial hub of early US HIV/AIDS diversification. Logistic growth coalescent models reveal epidemic doubling times of 0.86 and 1.12 years for the US and Caribbean, respectively, suggesting rapid early expansion in each location1. Comparisons with more recent data reveal many of these insights to be unattainable without archival, full-genome sequences. We also recovered the HIV-1 genome from the individual known as ‘Patient 0’5 and show there is neither biological nor historical evidence he was the primary case in the US or for subtype B as a whole. We discuss the genesis and persistence of this belief in the light of these evolutionary insights. PMID:27783600

1970s and 'Patient 0' HIV-1 genomes illuminate early HIV/AIDS history in North America.

PubMed

Worobey, Michael; Watts, Thomas D; McKay, Richard A; Suchard, Marc A; Granade, Timothy; Teuwen, Dirk E; Koblin, Beryl A; Heneine, Walid; Lemey, Philippe; Jaffe, Harold W

2016-11-03

The emergence of HIV-1 group M subtype B in North American men who have sex with men was a key turning point in the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Phylogenetic studies have suggested cryptic subtype B circulation in the United States (US) throughout the 1970s and an even older presence in the Caribbean. However, these temporal and geographical inferences, based upon partial HIV-1 genomes that postdate the recognition of AIDS in 1981, remain contentious and the earliest movements of the virus within the US are unknown. We serologically screened >2,000 1970s serum samples and developed a highly sensitive approach for recovering viral RNA from degraded archival samples. Here, we report eight coding-complete genomes from US serum samples from 1978-1979-eight of the nine oldest HIV-1 group M genomes to date. This early, full-genome 'snapshot' reveals that the US HIV-1 epidemic exhibited extensive genetic diversity in the 1970s but also provides strong evidence for its emergence from a pre-existing Caribbean epidemic. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses estimate the jump to the US at around 1970 and place the ancestral US virus in New York City with 0.99 posterior probability support, strongly suggesting this was the crucial hub of early US HIV/AIDS diversification. Logistic growth coalescent models reveal epidemic doubling times of 0.86 and 1.12 years for the US and Caribbean, respectively, suggesting rapid early expansion in each location. Comparisons with more recent data reveal many of these insights to be unattainable without archival, full-genome sequences. We also recovered the HIV-1 genome from the individual known as 'Patient 0' (ref. 5) and found neither biological nor historical evidence that he was the primary case in the US or for subtype B as a whole. We discuss the genesis and persistence of this belief in the light of these evolutionary insights.

Bayesian inference based on dual generalized order statistics from the exponentiated Weibull model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Sobhi, Mashail M.

2015-02-01

Bayesian estimation for the two parameters and the reliability function of the exponentiated Weibull model are obtained based on dual generalized order statistics (DGOS). Also, Bayesian prediction bounds for future DGOS from exponentiated Weibull model are obtained. The symmetric and asymmetric loss functions are considered for Bayesian computations. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used for computing the Bayes estimates and prediction bounds. The results have been specialized to the lower record values. Comparisons are made between Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimators via Monte Carlo simulation.

Crack Coalescence in Molded Gypsum and Carrara Marble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, N.; Einstein, H. H.

2007-12-01

This research investigates the fracturing and coalescence behavior in prismatic laboratory-molded gypsum and Carrara marble specimens, which consist of either one or two pre-existing open flaws, under uniaxial compression. The tests are monitored by a high speed video system with a frame rate up to 24,000 frames/second. It allows one to precisely observe the cracking mechanisms, in particular if shear or tensile fracturing takes place. Seven crack types and nine crack coalescence categories are identified. The flaw inclination angle, the ligament length and the bridging angle between two flaws have different extents of influence on the coalescence patterns. For coplanar flaws, as the flaw inclination angle increases, there is a general trend of variation from shear coalescence to tensile coalescence. For stepped flaws, as the bridging angle changes from negative to small positive, and further up to large positive values, the coalescence generally progresses from categories of no coalescence, indirect coalescence to direct coalescence. For direct coalescence, it generally progresses from shear, mixed shear-tensile to tensile as the bridging angle increases. Some differences in fracturing and coalescence processes are observed in gypsum and marble, particularly the crack initiation in marble is preceded by the development of macroscopic white patches, but not in gypsum. Scanning Electron Microprobe (SEM) study reveals that the white patches consist of zones of microcracks (process zones).

Mechanism and simulation of droplet coalescence in molten steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ni, Bing; Zhang, Tao; Ni, Hai-qi; Luo, Zhi-guo

2017-11-01

Droplet coalescence in liquid steel was carefully investigated through observations of the distribution pattern of inclusions in solidified steel samples. The process of droplet coalescence was slow, and the critical Weber number ( We) was used to evaluate the coalescence or separation of droplets. The relationship between the collision parameter and the critical We indicated whether slow coalescence or bouncing of droplets occurred. The critical We was 5.5, which means that the droplets gradually coalesce when We ≤ 5.5, whereas they bounce when We > 5.5. For the carbonate wire feeding into liquid steel, a mathematical model implementing a combined computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-discrete element method (DEM) approach was developed to simulate the movement and coalescence of variably sized droplets in a bottom-argon-blowing ladle. In the CFD model, the flow field was solved on the premise that the fluid was a continuous medium. Meanwhile, the droplets were dispersed in the DEM model, and the coalescence criterion of the particles was added to simulate the collision- coalescence process of the particles. The numerical simulation results and observations of inclusion coalescence in steel samples are consistent.

Detecting the existence of gene flow between Spanish and North African goats through a coalescent approach.

PubMed

Martínez, Amparo; Manunza, Arianna; Delgado, Juan Vicente; Landi, Vincenzo; Adebambo, Ayotunde; Ismaila, Muritala; Capote, Juan; El Ouni, Mabrouk; Elbeltagy, Ahmed; Abushady, Asmaa M; Galal, Salah; Ferrando, Ainhoa; Gómez, Mariano; Pons, Agueda; Badaoui, Bouabid; Jordana, Jordi; Vidal, Oriol; Amills, Marcel

2016-12-14

Human-driven migrations are one of the main processes shaping the genetic diversity and population structure of domestic species. However, their magnitude and direction have been rarely analysed in a statistical framework. We aimed to estimate the impact of migration on the population structure of Spanish and African goats. To achieve this goal, we analysed a dataset of 1,472 individuals typed with 23 microsatellites. Population structure of African and Spanish goats was moderate (mean F ST  = 0.07), with the exception of the Canarian and South African breeds that displayed a significant differentiation when compared to goats from North Africa and Nigeria. Measurement of gene flow with Migrate-n and IMa coalescent genealogy samplers supported the existence of a bidirectional gene flow between African and Spanish goats. Moreover, IMa estimates of the effective number of migrants were remarkably lower than those calculated with Migrate-n and classical approaches. Such discrepancies suggest that recent divergence, rather than extensive gene flow, is the main cause of the weak population structure observed in caprine breeds.

Detecting the existence of gene flow between Spanish and North African goats through a coalescent approach

PubMed Central

Martínez, Amparo; Manunza, Arianna; Delgado, Juan Vicente; Landi, Vincenzo; Adebambo, Ayotunde; Ismaila, Muritala; Capote, Juan; El Ouni, Mabrouk; Elbeltagy, Ahmed; Abushady, Asmaa M.; Galal, Salah; Ferrando, Ainhoa; Gómez, Mariano; Pons, Agueda; Badaoui, Bouabid; Jordana, Jordi; Vidal, Oriol; Amills, Marcel

2016-01-01

Human-driven migrations are one of the main processes shaping the genetic diversity and population structure of domestic species. However, their magnitude and direction have been rarely analysed in a statistical framework. We aimed to estimate the impact of migration on the population structure of Spanish and African goats. To achieve this goal, we analysed a dataset of 1,472 individuals typed with 23 microsatellites. Population structure of African and Spanish goats was moderate (mean FST = 0.07), with the exception of the Canarian and South African breeds that displayed a significant differentiation when compared to goats from North Africa and Nigeria. Measurement of gene flow with Migrate-n and IMa coalescent genealogy samplers supported the existence of a bidirectional gene flow between African and Spanish goats. Moreover, IMa estimates of the effective number of migrants were remarkably lower than those calculated with Migrate-n and classical approaches. Such discrepancies suggest that recent divergence, rather than extensive gene flow, is the main cause of the weak population structure observed in caprine breeds. PMID:27966592

Phylodynamic Analysis of Clinical and Environmental Vibrio cholerae Isolates from Haiti Reveals Diversification Driven by Positive Selection

PubMed Central

Azarian, Taj; Ali, Afsar; Johnson, Judith A.; Mohr, David; Prosperi, Mattia; Veras, Nazle M.; Jubair, Mohammed; Strickland, Samantha L.; Rashid, Mohammad H.; Alam, Meer T.; Weppelmann, Thomas A.; Katz, Lee S.; Tarr, Cheryl L.; Colwell, Rita R.

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT Phylodynamic analysis of genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data is a powerful tool to investigate underlying evolutionary processes of bacterial epidemics. The method was applied to investigate a collection of 65 clinical and environmental isolates of Vibrio cholerae from Haiti collected between 2010 and 2012. Characterization of isolates recovered from environmental samples identified a total of four toxigenic V. cholerae O1 isolates, four non-O1/O139 isolates, and a novel nontoxigenic V. cholerae O1 isolate with the classical tcpA gene. Phylogenies of strains were inferred from genome-wide SNPs using coalescent-based demographic models within a Bayesian framework. A close phylogenetic relationship between clinical and environmental toxigenic V. cholerae O1 strains was observed. As cholera spread throughout Haiti between October 2010 and August 2012, the population size initially increased and then fluctuated over time. Selection analysis along internal branches of the phylogeny showed a steady accumulation of synonymous substitutions and a progressive increase of nonsynonymous substitutions over time, suggesting diversification likely was driven by positive selection. Short-term accumulation of nonsynonymous substitutions driven by selection may have significant implications for virulence, transmission dynamics, and even vaccine efficacy. PMID:25538191

Semisupervised learning using Bayesian interpretation: application to LS-SVM.

PubMed

Adankon, Mathias M; Cheriet, Mohamed; Biem, Alain

2011-04-01

Bayesian reasoning provides an ideal basis for representing and manipulating uncertain knowledge, with the result that many interesting algorithms in machine learning are based on Bayesian inference. In this paper, we use the Bayesian approach with one and two levels of inference to model the semisupervised learning problem and give its application to the successful kernel classifier support vector machine (SVM) and its variant least-squares SVM (LS-SVM). Taking advantage of Bayesian interpretation of LS-SVM, we develop a semisupervised learning algorithm for Bayesian LS-SVM using our approach based on two levels of inference. Experimental results on both artificial and real pattern recognition problems show the utility of our method.

Bayesian Framework for Water Quality Model Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management

EPA Science Inventory

A formal Bayesian methodology is presented for integrated model calibration and risk-based water quality management using Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and maximum likelihood estimation (BMCML). The primary focus is on lucid integration of model calibration with risk-based wat...

Control of Partial Coalescence of Self-Assembled Metal Nano-Particles across Lyotropic Liquid Crystals Templates towards Long Range Meso-Porous Metal Frameworks Design

PubMed Central

Dumée, Ludovic F.; Lemoine, Jean-Baptiste; Ancel, Alice; Hameed, Nishar; He, Li; Kong, Lingxue

2015-01-01

The formation of purely metallic meso-porous metal thin films by partial interface coalescence of self-assembled metal nano-particles across aqueous solutions of Pluronics triblock lyotropic liquid crystals is demonstrated for the first time. Small angle X-ray scattering was used to study the influence of the thin film composition and processing conditions on the ordered structures. The structural characteristics of the meso-structures formed demonstrated to primarily rely on the lyotropic liquid crystal properties while the nature of the metal nano-particles used as well as the their diameters were found to affect the ordered structure formation. The impact of the annealing temperature on the nano-particle coalescence and efficiency at removing the templating lyotropic liquid crystals was also analysed. It is demonstrated that the lyotropic liquid crystal is rendered slightly less thermally stable, upon mixing with metal nano-particles and that low annealing temperatures are sufficient to form purely metallic frameworks with average pore size distributions smaller than 500 nm and porosity around 45% with potential application in sensing, catalysis, nanoscale heat exchange, and molecular separation. PMID:28347094

Wavelength-Dependent Plasmon-Mediated Coalescence of Two Gold Nanorods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liaw, Jiunn-Woei; Lin, Wu-Chun; Kuo, Mao-Kuen

2017-04-01

Plasmon-mediated coalescence of two nearby gold nanorods (NRs) suspended in water induced by the illumination of a linearly polarized (LP) light was studied theoretically. We analyzed the coupled optical forces and torques in terms of Maxwell’s stress tensor upon two identical NRs irradiated by a LP plane wave using the multiple multipole method to estimate the optomechanical outcome. Numerical results show that the light-matter interaction can perform attraction or repulsion, depending on their initial configurations. For the attraction, the end-to-end or side-by-side coalescence of the two gold NRs could be caused by the LP light, depending on the wavelength. For example, the side-by-side coalescence of two adjacent NRs of r = 15 nm and L = 120 nm is most likely induced by 800-nm LP laser beam, whereas the end-to-end coalescence by 1064-nm or 1700-nm LP laser. These distinct phenomena are attributed to the perpendicular or parallel alignment of NR to the polarization of LP light in different wavelength ranges. The magnitude of optical force, proportional to the light’s fluence, could be stronger than van der Waals force. The estimation based on quasi-static model without considering the fluid dynamics may provide an insight to optical manipulation on the self-assembly of gold colloid.

Bayesian generalized linear mixed modeling of Tuberculosis using informative priors

PubMed Central

Woldegerima, Woldegebriel Assefa

2017-01-01

TB is rated as one of the world’s deadliest diseases and South Africa ranks 9th out of the 22 countries with hardest hit of TB. Although many pieces of research have been carried out on this subject, this paper steps further by inculcating past knowledge into the model, using Bayesian approach with informative prior. Bayesian statistics approach is getting popular in data analyses. But, most applications of Bayesian inference technique are limited to situations of non-informative prior, where there is no solid external information about the distribution of the parameter of interest. The main aim of this study is to profile people living with TB in South Africa. In this paper, identical regression models are fitted for classical and Bayesian approach both with non-informative and informative prior, using South Africa General Household Survey (GHS) data for the year 2014. For the Bayesian model with informative prior, South Africa General Household Survey dataset for the year 2011 to 2013 are used to set up priors for the model 2014. PMID:28257437

Molecular Phylogenetics and Systematics of the Bivalve Family Ostreidae Based on rRNA Sequence-Structure Models and Multilocus Species Tree

PubMed Central

Salvi, Daniele; Macali, Armando; Mariottini, Paolo

2014-01-01

The bivalve family Ostreidae has a worldwide distribution and includes species of high economic importance. Phylogenetics and systematic of oysters based on morphology have proved difficult because of their high phenotypic plasticity. In this study we explore the phylogenetic information of the DNA sequence and secondary structure of the nuclear, fast-evolving, ITS2 rRNA and the mitochondrial 16S rRNA genes from the Ostreidae and we implemented a multi-locus framework based on four loci for oyster phylogenetics and systematics. Sequence-structure rRNA models aid sequence alignment and improved accuracy and nodal support of phylogenetic trees. In agreement with previous molecular studies, our phylogenetic results indicate that none of the currently recognized subfamilies, Crassostreinae, Ostreinae, and Lophinae, is monophyletic. Single gene trees based on Maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian (BA) methods and on sequence-structure ML were congruent with multilocus trees based on a concatenated (ML and BA) and coalescent based (BA) approaches and consistently supported three main clades: (i) Crassostrea, (ii) Saccostrea, and (iii) an Ostreinae-Lophinae lineage. Therefore, the subfamily Crassotreinae (including Crassostrea), Saccostreinae subfam. nov. (including Saccostrea and tentatively Striostrea) and Ostreinae (including Ostreinae and Lophinae taxa) are recognized. Based on phylogenetic and biogeographical evidence the Asian species of Crassostrea from the Pacific Ocean are assigned to Magallana gen. nov., whereas an integrative taxonomic revision is required for the genera Ostrea and Dendostrea. This study pointed out the suitability of the ITS2 marker for DNA barcoding of oyster and the relevance of using sequence-structure rRNA models and features of the ITS2 folding in molecular phylogenetics and taxonomy. The multilocus approach allowed inferring a robust phylogeny of Ostreidae providing a broad molecular perspective on their systematics. PMID:25250663

Molecular phylogenetics and systematics of the bivalve family Ostreidae based on rRNA sequence-structure models and multilocus species tree.

PubMed

Salvi, Daniele; Macali, Armando; Mariottini, Paolo

2014-01-01

The bivalve family Ostreidae has a worldwide distribution and includes species of high economic importance. Phylogenetics and systematic of oysters based on morphology have proved difficult because of their high phenotypic plasticity. In this study we explore the phylogenetic information of the DNA sequence and secondary structure of the nuclear, fast-evolving, ITS2 rRNA and the mitochondrial 16S rRNA genes from the Ostreidae and we implemented a multi-locus framework based on four loci for oyster phylogenetics and systematics. Sequence-structure rRNA models aid sequence alignment and improved accuracy and nodal support of phylogenetic trees. In agreement with previous molecular studies, our phylogenetic results indicate that none of the currently recognized subfamilies, Crassostreinae, Ostreinae, and Lophinae, is monophyletic. Single gene trees based on Maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian (BA) methods and on sequence-structure ML were congruent with multilocus trees based on a concatenated (ML and BA) and coalescent based (BA) approaches and consistently supported three main clades: (i) Crassostrea, (ii) Saccostrea, and (iii) an Ostreinae-Lophinae lineage. Therefore, the subfamily Crassostreinae (including Crassostrea), Saccostreinae subfam. nov. (including Saccostrea and tentatively Striostrea) and Ostreinae (including Ostreinae and Lophinae taxa) are recognized [corrected]. Based on phylogenetic and biogeographical evidence the Asian species of Crassostrea from the Pacific Ocean are assigned to Magallana gen. nov., whereas an integrative taxonomic revision is required for the genera Ostrea and Dendostrea. This study pointed out the suitability of the ITS2 marker for DNA barcoding of oyster and the relevance of using sequence-structure rRNA models and features of the ITS2 folding in molecular phylogenetics and taxonomy. The multilocus approach allowed inferring a robust phylogeny of Ostreidae providing a broad molecular perspective on their systematics.

Multi-locus phylogenetics, lineage sorting, and reticulation in Pinus subsection Australes.

PubMed

Gernandt, David S; Aguirre Dugua, Xitlali; Vázquez-Lobo, Alejandra; Willyard, Ann; Moreno Letelier, Alejandra; Pérez de la Rosa, Jorge A; Piñero, Daniel; Liston, Aaron

2018-04-23

Both incomplete lineage sorting and reticulation have been proposed as causes of phylogenetic incongruence. Disentangling these factors may be most difficult in long-lived, wind-pollinated plants with large population sizes and weak reproductive barriers. We used solution hybridization for targeted enrichment and massive parallel sequencing to characterize low-copy-number nuclear genes and high-copy-number plastomes (Hyb-Seq) in 74 individuals of Pinus subsection Australes, a group of ~30 New World pine species of exceptional ecological and economic importance. We inferred relationships using methods that account for both incomplete lineage sorting and reticulation. Concatenation- and coalescent-based trees inferred from nuclear genes mainly agreed with one another, but they contradicted the plastid DNA tree in recovering the Attenuatae (the California closed-cone pines) and Oocarpae (the egg-cone pines of Mexico and Central America) as monophyletic and the Australes sensu stricto (the southern yellow pines) as paraphyletic to the Oocarpae. The plastid tree featured some relationships that were discordant with morphological and geographic evidence and species limits. Incorporating gene flow into the coalescent analyses better fit the data, but evidence supporting the hypothesis that hybridization explains the non-monophyly of the Attenuatae in the plastid tree was equivocal. Our analyses document cytonuclear discordance in Pinus subsection Australes. We attribute this discordance to ancient and recent introgression and present a phylogenetic hypothesis in which mostly hierarchical relationships are overlain by gene flow. © 2018 The Authors. American Journal of Botany is published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the Botanical Society of America.

Bears in a Forest of Gene Trees: Phylogenetic Inference Is Complicated by Incomplete Lineage Sorting and Gene Flow

PubMed Central

Kutschera, Verena E.; Bidon, Tobias; Hailer, Frank; Rodi, Julia L.; Fain, Steven R.; Janke, Axel

2014-01-01

Ursine bears are a mammalian subfamily that comprises six morphologically and ecologically distinct extant species. Previous phylogenetic analyses of concatenated nuclear genes could not resolve all relationships among bears, and appeared to conflict with the mitochondrial phylogeny. Evolutionary processes such as incomplete lineage sorting and introgression can cause gene tree discordance and complicate phylogenetic inferences, but are not accounted for in phylogenetic analyses of concatenated data. We generated a high-resolution data set of autosomal introns from several individuals per species and of Y-chromosomal markers. Incorporating intraspecific variability in coalescence-based phylogenetic and gene flow estimation approaches, we traced the genealogical history of individual alleles. Considerable heterogeneity among nuclear loci and discordance between nuclear and mitochondrial phylogenies were found. A species tree with divergence time estimates indicated that ursine bears diversified within less than 2 My. Consistent with a complex branching order within a clade of Asian bear species, we identified unidirectional gene flow from Asian black into sloth bears. Moreover, gene flow detected from brown into American black bears can explain the conflicting placement of the American black bear in mitochondrial and nuclear phylogenies. These results highlight that both incomplete lineage sorting and introgression are prominent evolutionary forces even on time scales up to several million years. Complex evolutionary patterns are not adequately captured by strictly bifurcating models, and can only be fully understood when analyzing multiple independently inherited loci in a coalescence framework. Phylogenetic incongruence among gene trees hence needs to be recognized as a biologically meaningful signal. PMID:24903145

Spatiotemporal dynamics of HIV-1 transmission in France (1999-2014) and impact of targeted prevention strategies.

PubMed

Chaillon, Antoine; Essat, Asma; Frange, Pierre; Smith, Davey M; Delaugerre, Constance; Barin, Francis; Ghosn, Jade; Pialoux, Gilles; Robineau, Olivier; Rouzioux, Christine; Goujard, Cécile; Meyer, Laurence; Chaix, Marie-Laure

2017-02-21

Characterizing HIV-1 transmission networks can be important in understanding the evolutionary patterns and geospatial spread of the epidemic. We reconstructed the broad molecular epidemiology of HIV from individuals with primary HIV-1 infection (PHI) enrolled in France in the ANRS PRIMO C06 cohort over 15 years. Sociodemographic, geographic, clinical, biological and pol sequence data from 1356 patients were collected between 1999 and 2014. Network analysis was performed to infer genetic relationships, i.e. clusters of transmission, between HIV-1 sequences. Bayesian coalescent-based methods were used to examine the temporal and spatial dynamics of identified clusters from different regions in France. We also evaluated the use of network information to target prevention efforts. Participants were mostly Caucasian (85.9%) and men (86.7%) who reported sex with men (MSM, 71.4%). Overall, 387 individuals (28.5%) were involved in clusters: 156 patients (11.5%) in 78 dyads and 231 participants (17%) in 42 larger clusters (median size: 4, range 3-41). Compared to individuals with single PHI (n = 969), those in clusters were more frequently men (95.9 vs 83%, p < 0.01), MSM (85.8 vs 65.6%, p < 0.01) and infected with CRF02_AG (20.4 vs 13.4%, p < 0.01). Reconstruction of viral migrations across time suggests that Paris area was the major hub of dissemination of both subtype B and CRF02_AG epidemics. By targeting clustering individuals belonging to the identified active transmission network before 2010, 60 of the 143 onward transmissions could have been prevented. These analyses support the hypothesis of a recent and rapid rise of CRF02_AG within the French HIV-1 epidemic among MSM. Combined with a short turnaround time for sample processing, targeting prevention efforts based on phylogenetic monitoring may be an efficient way to deliver prevention interventions but would require near real time targeted interventions on the identified index cases and their partners.

Genetic structuring and migration patterns of Atlantic bigeye tuna, Thunnus obesus (Lowe, 1839).

PubMed

Gonzalez, Elena G; Beerli, Peter; Zardoya, Rafael

2008-09-17

Large pelagic fishes are generally thought to have little population genetic structuring based on their cosmopolitan distribution, large population sizes and high dispersal capacities. However, gene flow can be influenced by ecological (e.g. homing behaviour) and physical (e.g. present-day ocean currents, past changes in sea temperature and levels) factors. In this regard, Atlantic bigeye tuna shows an interesting genetic structuring pattern with two highly divergent mitochondrial clades (Clades I and II), which are assumed to have been originated during the last Pleistocene glacial maxima. We assess genetic structure patterns of Atlantic bigeye tuna at the nuclear level, and compare them with mitochondrial evidence. We examined allele size variation of nine microsatellite loci in 380 individuals from the Gulf of Guinea, Canary, Azores, Canada, Indian Ocean, and Pacific Ocean. To investigate temporal stability of genetic structure, three Atlantic Ocean sites were re-sampled a second year. Hierarchical AMOVA tests, RST pairwise comparisons, isolation by distance (Mantel) tests, Bayesian clustering analyses, and coalescence-based migration rate inferences supported unrestricted gene flow within the Atlantic Ocean at the nuclear level, and therefore interbreeding between individuals belonging to both mitochondrial clades. Moreover, departures from HWE in several loci were inferred for the samples of Guinea, and attributed to a Wahlund effect supporting the role of this region as a spawning and nursery area. Our microsatellite data supported a single worldwide panmictic unit for bigeye tunas. Despite the strong Agulhas Current, immigration rates seem to be higher from the Atlantic Ocean into the Indo-Pacific Ocean, but the actual number of individuals moving per generation is relatively low compared to the large population sizes inhabiting each ocean basin. Lack of congruence between mt and nuclear evidences, which is also found in other species, most likely reflects past events of isolation and secondary contact. Given the inferred relatively low number of immigrants per generation around the Cape of Good Hope, the proportions of the mitochondrial clades in the different oceans may keep stable, and it seems plausible that the presence of individuals belonging to the mt Clade I in the Atlantic Ocean may be due to extensive migrations that predated the last glaciation.

Phylodynamic Analysis Reveals CRF01_AE Dissemination between Japan and Neighboring Asian Countries and the Role of Intravenous Drug Use in Transmission

PubMed Central

Shiino, Teiichiro; Hattori, Junko; Yokomaku, Yoshiyuki; Iwatani, Yasumasa; Sugiura, Wataru

2014-01-01

Background One major circulating HIV-1 subtype in Southeast Asian countries is CRF01_AE, but little is known about its epidemiology in Japan. We conducted a molecular phylodynamic study of patients newly diagnosed with CRF01_AE from 2003 to 2010. Methods Plasma samples from patients registered in Japanese Drug Resistance HIV-1 Surveillance Network were analyzed for protease-reverse transcriptase sequences; all sequences undergo subtyping and phylogenetic analysis using distance-matrix-based, maximum likelihood and Bayesian coalescent Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) phylogenetic inferences. Transmission clusters were identified using interior branch test and depth-first searches for sub-tree partitions. Times of most recent common ancestor (tMRCAs) of significant clusters were estimated using Bayesian MCMC analysis. Results Among 3618 patient registered in our network, 243 were infected with CRF01_AE. The majority of individuals with CRF01_AE were Japanese, predominantly male, and reported heterosexual contact as their risk factor. We found 5 large clusters with ≥5 members and 25 small clusters consisting of pairs of individuals with highly related CRF01_AE strains. The earliest cluster showed a tMRCA of 1996, and consisted of individuals with their known risk as heterosexual contacts. The other four large clusters showed later tMRCAs between 2000 and 2002 with members including intravenous drug users (IVDU) and non-Japanese, but not men who have sex with men (MSM). In contrast, small clusters included a high frequency of individuals reporting MSM risk factors. Phylogenetic analysis also showed that some individuals infected with HIV strains spread in East and South-eastern Asian countries. Conclusions Introduction of CRF01_AE viruses into Japan is estimated to have occurred in the 1990s. CFR01_AE spread via heterosexual behavior, then among persons connected with non-Japanese, IVDU, and MSM. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that some viral variants are largely restricted to Japan, while others have a broad geographic distribution. PMID:25025900

Kinetics of copper growth on graphene revealed by time-resolved small-angle x-ray scattering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodas, M.; Siffalovic, P.; Jergel, M.; Pelletta, M.; Halahovets, Y.; Vegso, K.; Kotlar, M.; Majkova, E.

2017-01-01

Metal growth on graphene has many applications. Transition metals are known to favor three-dimensional (3D) cluster growth on graphene. Copper is of particular interest for cost-effective surface-supported catalysis applications and as a contact material in electronics. This paper presents an in situ real-time study of Cu growth kinetics on graphene covering all stages preceding formation of a continuous film performed by laboratory-based grazing-incidence small-angle x-ray scattering (GISAXS) technique. In particular, nucleation and 3D cluster growth, coalescence, and percolation stages were identified. The cluster nucleation saturates after reaching a density of 1012c m-2 at ≈1 monolayer thickness. A Kratky plot and a paracrystal model with cumulative structural disorder were necessary to evaluate properly cluster growth and coalescence, respectively. The power law scaling constants 0.27 ±0.05 and 0.81 ±0.02 of the temporal evolution of Cu cluster size suggest the growth of isolated clusters and dynamic cluster coalescence keeping the cluster shape, respectively. Coalescence and percolation thresholds occur at Cu thicknesses of 2 ±0.4 and 8.8 ±0.7 nm , respectively. This paper demonstrates the potential of laboratory-based in situ GISAXS as a vital diagnostic tool for tailoring a large variety of Cu nanostructures on graphene based on an in situ Cu growth monitoring which is applicable in a broad range of deposition times.

Speciation at the Mogollon Rim in the Arizona Mountain Kingsnake (Lampropeltis pyromelana).

PubMed

Burbrink, Frank T; Yao, Helen; Ingrasci, Matthew; Bryson, Robert W; Guiher, Timothy J; Ruane, Sara

2011-09-01

Studies of speciation and taxon delimitation are usually decoupled. Combining these methods provides a stronger theoretical ground for recognizing new taxa and understanding processes of speciation. Using coalescent methods, we examine speciation, post-speciation population demographics, and taxon delimitation in the Arizona Mountain Kingsnake (Lampropeltis pyromelana), a species restricted to high elevations in southwestern United States and northern Mexico (SW). These methods provide a solid foundation for understanding how biogeographic barriers operate at the regional scale in the SW. Bayesian species delimitation methods, using three loci from samples of L. pyromelana taken throughout their range, show strong support for the existence of two species that are separated by low elevation habitats found between the Colorado Plateau/ Mogollon Rim and the Sierra Madre Occidental. Our results suggest an allopatric mode of speciation given the near absence of gene flow over time, which resulted in two lineages of unequal population sizes. Speciation likely occurred prior to the Pleistocene, during the aridification of the SW and/or the uplift of the Colorado Plateau, and while these species occupy similar high-elevation niches, they are isolated by xeric conditions found in the intervening low deserts. Furthermore, post-speciation demographics suggest that populations of both lineages were not negatively impacted by climate change throughout the Pleistocene. Finally, our results suggest that at least for this group, where divergence is old and gene flow is low, Bayesian species delimitation performs well. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An experimental study on the coalescence process of binary droplets in oil under ultrasonic standing waves.

PubMed

Luo, Xiaoming; Cao, Juhang; He, Limin; Wang, Hongping; Yan, Haipeng; Qin, Yahua

2017-01-01

The coalescence process of binary droplets in oil under ultrasonic standing waves was investigated with high-speed photography. Three motion models of binary droplets in coalescence process were illustrated: (1) slight translational oscillation; (2) sinusoidal translational oscillation; (3) migration along with acoustic streaming. To reveal the droplets coalescence mechanisms, the influence of main factors (such as acoustic intensity, droplet size, viscosity and interfacial tension, etc) on the motion and coalescence of binary droplets was studied under ultrasonic standing waves. Results indicate that the shortest coalescence time is achieved when binary droplets show sinusoidal translational oscillation. The corresponding acoustic intensity in this case is the optimum acoustic intensity. Under the optimum acoustic intensity, drop size decrease will bring about coalescence time decrease by enhancing the binary droplets oscillation. Moreover, there is an optimum interfacial tension to achieve the shortest coalescence time. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Generalized empirical Bayesian methods for discovery of differential data in high-throughput biology.

PubMed

Hardcastle, Thomas J

2016-01-15

High-throughput data are now commonplace in biological research. Rapidly changing technologies and application mean that novel methods for detecting differential behaviour that account for a 'large P, small n' setting are required at an increasing rate. The development of such methods is, in general, being done on an ad hoc basis, requiring further development cycles and a lack of standardization between analyses. We present here a generalized method for identifying differential behaviour within high-throughput biological data through empirical Bayesian methods. This approach is based on our baySeq algorithm for identification of differential expression in RNA-seq data based on a negative binomial distribution, and in paired data based on a beta-binomial distribution. Here we show how the same empirical Bayesian approach can be applied to any parametric distribution, removing the need for lengthy development of novel methods for differently distributed data. Comparisons with existing methods developed to address specific problems in high-throughput biological data show that these generic methods can achieve equivalent or better performance. A number of enhancements to the basic algorithm are also presented to increase flexibility and reduce computational costs. The methods are implemented in the R baySeq (v2) package, available on Bioconductor http://www.bioconductor.org/packages/release/bioc/html/baySeq.html. tjh48@cam.ac.uk Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

An algorithm for computing the gene tree probability under the multispecies coalescent and its application in the inference of population tree

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Motivation: Gene tree represents the evolutionary history of gene lineages that originate from multiple related populations. Under the multispecies coalescent model, lineages may coalesce outside the species (population) boundary. Given a species tree (with branch lengths), the gene tree probability is the probability of observing a specific gene tree topology under the multispecies coalescent model. There are two existing algorithms for computing the exact gene tree probability. The first algorithm is due to Degnan and Salter, where they enumerate all the so-called coalescent histories for the given species tree and the gene tree topology. Their algorithm runs in exponential time in the number of gene lineages in general. The second algorithm is the STELLS algorithm (2012), which is usually faster but also runs in exponential time in almost all the cases. Results: In this article, we present a new algorithm, called CompactCH, for computing the exact gene tree probability. This new algorithm is based on the notion of compact coalescent histories: multiple coalescent histories are represented by a single compact coalescent history. The key advantage of our new algorithm is that it runs in polynomial time in the number of gene lineages if the number of populations is fixed to be a constant. The new algorithm is more efficient than the STELLS algorithm both in theory and in practice when the number of populations is small and there are multiple gene lineages from each population. As an application, we show that CompactCH can be applied in the inference of population tree (i.e. the population divergence history) from population haplotypes. Simulation results show that the CompactCH algorithm enables efficient and accurate inference of population trees with much more haplotypes than a previous approach. Availability: The CompactCH algorithm is implemented in the STELLS software package, which is available for download at http://www.engr.uconn.edu/ywu/STELLS.html. Contact: ywu@engr.uconn.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:27307621

Accurate quantification of within- and between-host HBV evolutionary rates requires explicit transmission chain modelling.

PubMed

Vrancken, Bram; Suchard, Marc A; Lemey, Philippe

2017-07-01

Analyses of virus evolution in known transmission chains have the potential to elucidate the impact of transmission dynamics on the viral evolutionary rate and its difference within and between hosts. Lin et al. (2015, Journal of Virology , 89/7: 3512-22) recently investigated the evolutionary history of hepatitis B virus in a transmission chain and postulated that the 'colonization-adaptation-transmission' model can explain the differential impact of transmission on synonymous and non-synonymous substitution rates. Here, we revisit this dataset using a full probabilistic Bayesian phylogenetic framework that adequately accounts for the non-independence of sequence data when estimating evolutionary parameters. Examination of the transmission chain data under a flexible coalescent prior reveals a general inconsistency between the estimated timings and clustering patterns and the known transmission history, highlighting the need to incorporate host transmission information in the analysis. Using an explicit genealogical transmission chain model, we find strong support for a transmission-associated decrease of the overall evolutionary rate. However, in contrast to the initially reported larger transmission effect on non-synonymous substitution rate, we find a similar decrease in both non-synonymous and synonymous substitution rates that cannot be adequately explained by the colonization-adaptation-transmission model. An alternative explanation may involve a transmission/establishment advantage of hepatitis B virus variants that have accumulated fewer within-host substitutions, perhaps by spending more time in the covalently closed circular DNA state between each round of viral replication. More generally, this study illustrates that ignoring phylogenetic relationships can lead to misleading evolutionary estimates.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Brazil during the pandemic and post-pandemic periods.

PubMed

Manito, Alessandra C B; Gräf, Tiago; Lunge, Vagner R; Ikuta, Nilo

2017-06-15

Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was responsible for the first global flu pandemic in 21st century affecting all the world. In Brazil, A(H1N1)pdm09 is still circulating as a seasonal virus, causing deaths every year. Nevertheless, the viral diffusion process that yearly seeds new influenza strains in the country was not investigated yet. The aim of the current study was to describe the phylodynamics and phylogeography of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Brazil between 2009 and 2014. Neuraminidase sequences from Brazil and other regions of the World were retrieved and analyzed. Bayesian phylogeographic and phylodynamic model approaches were used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal and demographic history of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Brazil (divided in subtropical and tropical regions) and related countries. Our analyses reveal that new influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 lineages are seeded in Brazil in almost each year and the main sources of viral diversity are North America, Europe and East Asia. The phylogeographic asymmetric model also revealed that Brazil, mainly the subtropical region, seeds viral lineages into other countries. Coalescent analysis of the compiled dataset reconstructed the peak of viral transmissions in the winter months of Southern hemisphere. The results presented in this study can be informative to public health, guide intervention strategies and in the understanding of flu virus migration, which helps to predict antigenic drift and consequently the developing of new vaccines. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The genetic prehistory of domesticated cattle from their origin to the spread across Europe.

PubMed

Scheu, Amelie; Powell, Adam; Bollongino, Ruth; Vigne, Jean-Denis; Tresset, Anne; Çakırlar, Canan; Benecke, Norbert; Burger, Joachim

2015-05-28

Cattle domestication started in the 9(th) millennium BC in Southwest Asia. Domesticated cattle were then introduced into Europe during the Neolithic transition. However, the scarcity of palaeogenetic data from the first European domesticated cattle still inhibits the accurate reconstruction of their early demography. In this study, mitochondrial DNA from 193 ancient and 597 modern domesticated cattle (Bos taurus) from sites across Europe, Western Anatolia and Iran were analysed to provide insight into the Neolithic dispersal process and the role of the local European aurochs population during cattle domestication. Using descriptive summary statistics and serial coalescent simulations paired with approximate Bayesian computation we find: (i) decreasing genetic diversity in a southeast to northwest direction, (ii) strong correlation of genetic and geographical distances, iii) an estimated effective size of the Near Eastern female founder population of 81, iv) that the expansion of cattle from the Near East and Anatolia into Europe does not appear to constitute a significant bottleneck, and that v) there is evidence for gene-flow between the Near Eastern/Anatolian and European cattle populations in the early phases of the European Neolithic, but that it is restricted after 5,000 BCE. The most plausible scenario to explain these results is a single and regionally restricted domestication process of cattle in the Near East with subsequent migration into Europe during the Neolithic transition without significant maternal interbreeding with the endogenous wild stock. Evidence for gene-flow between cattle populations from Southwestern Asia and Europe during the earlier phases of the European Neolithic points towards intercontinental trade connections between Neolithic farmers.

Molecular diversity and evolutionary history of rabies virus strains circulating in the Balkans.

PubMed

McElhinney, L M; Marston, D A; Freuling, C M; Cragg, W; Stankov, S; Lalosevic, D; Lalosevic, V; Müller, T; Fooks, A R

2011-09-01

Molecular studies of European classical rabies viruses (RABV) have revealed a number of geographically clustered lineages. To study the diversity of Balkan RABV, partial nucleoprotein (N) gene sequences were analysed from a unique panel of isolates (n = 210), collected from various hosts between 1972 and 2006. All of the Balkan isolates grouped within the European/Middle East Lineage, with the majority most closely related to East European strains. A number of RABV from Bosnia & Herzegovina and Montenegro, collected between 1986 and 2006, grouped with the West European strains, believed to be responsible for the rabies epizootic that spread throughout Europe in the latter half of the 20th Century. In contrast, no Serbian RABV belonged to this sublineage. However, a distinct group of Serbian fox RABV provided further evidence for the southwards wildlife-mediated movement of rabies from Hungary, Romania and Serbia into Bulgaria. To determine the optimal region for evolutionary analysis, partial, full and concatenated N-gene and glycoprotein (G) gene sequences were compared. Whilst both the divergence times and evolutionary rates were similar irrespective of genomic region, the 95 % highest probability density (HPD) limits were significantly reduced for full N-gene and concatenated NG-gene sequences compared with partial gene sequences. Bayesian coalescent analysis estimated the date of the most common recent ancestor of the Balkan RABV to be 1885 (95 % HPD, 1852-1913), and skyline plots suggested an expansion of the local viral population in 1980-1990, which coincides with the observed emergence of fox rabies in the region.

Hierarchical structure of the Sicilian goats revealed by Bayesian analyses of microsatellite information.

PubMed

Siwek, M; Finocchiaro, R; Curik, I; Portolano, B

2011-02-01

Genetic structure and relationship amongst the main goat populations in Sicily (Girgentana, Derivata di Siria, Maltese and Messinese) were analysed using information from 19 microsatellite markers genotyped on 173 individuals. A posterior Bayesian approach implemented in the program STRUCTURE revealed a hierarchical structure with two clusters at the first level (Girgentana vs. Messinese, Derivata di Siria and Maltese), explaining 4.8% of variation (amovaФ(ST) estimate). Seven clusters nested within these first two clusters (further differentiations of Girgentana, Derivata di Siria and Maltese), explaining 8.5% of variation (amovaФ(SC) estimate). The analyses and methods applied in this study indicate their power to detect subtle population structure. © 2010 The Authors, Animal Genetics © 2010 Stichting International Foundation for Animal Genetics.

The utility of Bayesian predictive probabilities for interim monitoring of clinical trials

PubMed Central

Connor, Jason T.; Ayers, Gregory D; Alvarez, JoAnn

2014-01-01

Background Bayesian predictive probabilities can be used for interim monitoring of clinical trials to estimate the probability of observing a statistically significant treatment effect if the trial were to continue to its predefined maximum sample size. Purpose We explore settings in which Bayesian predictive probabilities are advantageous for interim monitoring compared to Bayesian posterior probabilities, p-values, conditional power, or group sequential methods. Results For interim analyses that address prediction hypotheses, such as futility monitoring and efficacy monitoring with lagged outcomes, only predictive probabilities properly account for the amount of data remaining to be observed in a clinical trial and have the flexibility to incorporate additional information via auxiliary variables. Limitations Computational burdens limit the feasibility of predictive probabilities in many clinical trial settings. The specification of prior distributions brings additional challenges for regulatory approval. Conclusions The use of Bayesian predictive probabilities enables the choice of logical interim stopping rules that closely align with the clinical decision making process. PMID:24872363

Bayesian inference of a historical bottleneck in a heavily exploited marine mammal.

PubMed

Hoffman, J I; Grant, S M; Forcada, J; Phillips, C D

2011-10-01

Emerging Bayesian analytical approaches offer increasingly sophisticated means of reconstructing historical population dynamics from genetic data, but have been little applied to scenarios involving demographic bottlenecks. Consequently, we analysed a large mitochondrial and microsatellite dataset from the Antarctic fur seal Arctocephalus gazella, a species subjected to one of the most extreme examples of uncontrolled exploitation in history when it was reduced to the brink of extinction by the sealing industry during the late eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Classical bottleneck tests, which exploit the fact that rare alleles are rapidly lost during demographic reduction, yielded ambiguous results. In contrast, a strong signal of recent demographic decline was detected using both Bayesian skyline plots and Approximate Bayesian Computation, the latter also allowing derivation of posterior parameter estimates that were remarkably consistent with historical observations. This was achieved using only contemporary samples, further emphasizing the potential of Bayesian approaches to address important problems in conservation and evolutionary biology. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Bayesian alternative to the ISO-GUM's use of the Welch Satterthwaite formula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kacker, Raghu N.

2006-02-01

In certain disciplines, uncertainty is traditionally expressed as an interval about an estimate for the value of the measurand. Development of such uncertainty intervals with a stated coverage probability based on the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) requires a description of the probability distribution for the value of the measurand. The ISO-GUM propagates the estimates and their associated standard uncertainties for various input quantities through a linear approximation of the measurement equation to determine an estimate and its associated standard uncertainty for the value of the measurand. This procedure does not yield a probability distribution for the value of the measurand. The ISO-GUM suggests that under certain conditions motivated by the central limit theorem the distribution for the value of the measurand may be approximated by a scaled-and-shifted t-distribution with effective degrees of freedom obtained from the Welch-Satterthwaite (W-S) formula. The approximate t-distribution may then be used to develop an uncertainty interval with a stated coverage probability for the value of the measurand. We propose an approximate normal distribution based on a Bayesian uncertainty as an alternative to the t-distribution based on the W-S formula. A benefit of the approximate normal distribution based on a Bayesian uncertainty is that it greatly simplifies the expression of uncertainty by eliminating altogether the need for calculating effective degrees of freedom from the W-S formula. In the special case where the measurand is the difference between two means, each evaluated from statistical analyses of independent normally distributed measurements with unknown and possibly unequal variances, the probability distribution for the value of the measurand is known to be a Behrens-Fisher distribution. We compare the performance of the approximate normal distribution based on a Bayesian uncertainty and the approximate t-distribution based on the W-S formula with respect to the Behrens-Fisher distribution. The approximate normal distribution is simpler and better in this case. A thorough investigation of the relative performance of the two approximate distributions would require comparison for a range of measurement equations by numerical methods.

Binary Black Hole Mergers and Recoil Kicks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Centrella, Joan; Baker, J.; Choi, D.; Koppitz, M.; vanMeter, J.; Miller, C.

2006-01-01

Recent developments in numerical relativity have made it possible to follow reliably the coalescence of two black holes from near the innermost stable circular orbit to final ringdown. This opens up a wide variety of exciting astrophysical applications of these simulations. Chief among these is the net kick received when two unequal mass or spinning black holes merge. The magnitude of this kick has bearing on the production and growth of supermassive black holes during the epoch of structure formation, and on the retention of black holes in stellar clusters. Here we report the first accurate numerical calculation of this kick, for two nonspinning black holes in a 1.5:1 mass ratio, which is expected based on analytic considerations to give a significant fraction of the maximum possible recoil. We have performed multiple runs with different initial separations, orbital angular momenta, resolutions, extraction radii, and gauges. The full range of our kick speeds is 86-116 kilometers per second, and the most reliable runs give kicks between 86 and 97 kilometers per second. This is intermediate between the estimates from two recent post-Newtonian analyses and suggests that at redshifts z greater than 10, halos with masses less than 10(exp 9) M(sub SUN) will have difficulty retaining coalesced black holes after major mergers.

Reducing the Uncertainty in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Projections Using Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; An, S. I.

2016-12-01

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the ocean might slow down in the future, which can lead to a host of climatic effects in North Atlantic and throughout the world. Despite improvements in climate models and availability of new observations, AMOC projections remain uncertain. Here we constrain CMIP5 multi-model ensemble output with observations of a recently developed AMOC index to provide improved Bayesian predictions of future AMOC. Specifically, we first calculate yearly AMOC index loosely based on Rahmstorf et al. (2015) for years 1880—2004 for both observations, and the CMIP5 models for which relevant output is available. We then assign a weight to each model based on a Bayesian Model Averaging method that accounts for differential model skill in terms of both mean state and variability. We include the temporal autocorrelation in climate model errors, and account for the uncertainty in the parameters of our statistical model. We use the weights to provide future weighted projections of AMOC, and compare them to un-weighted ones. Our projections use bootstrapping to account for uncertainty in internal AMOC variability. We also perform spectral and other statistical analyses to show that AMOC index variability, both in models and in observations, is consistent with red noise. Our results improve on and complement previous work by using a new ensemble of climate models, a different observational metric, and an improved Bayesian weighting method that accounts for differential model skill at reproducing internal variability. Reference: Rahmstorf, S., Box, J. E., Feulner, G., Mann, M. E., Robinson, A., Rutherford, S., & Schaffernicht, E. J. (2015). Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in atlantic ocean overturning circulation. Nature Climate Change, 5(5), 475-480. doi:10.1038/nclimate2554

Reproductive isolation, evolutionary distinctiveness and setting conservation priorities: The case of European lake whitefish and the endangered North Sea houting (Coregonus spp.)

PubMed Central

2008-01-01

Background Adaptive radiation within fishes of the Coregonus lavaretus complex has created numerous morphs, posing significant challenges for taxonomy and conservation priorities. The highly endangered North Sea houting (C. oxyrhynchus; abbreviated NSH) has been considered a separate species from European lake whitefish (C. lavaretus; abbreviated ELW) due to morphological divergence and adaptation to oceanic salinities. However, its evolutionary and taxonomic status is controversial. We analysed microsatellite DNA polymorphism in nine populations from the Jutland Peninsula and the Baltic Sea, representing NSH (three populations, two of which are reintroduced) and ELW (six populations). The objectives were to: 1) analyse postglacial recolonization of whitefish in the region; 2) assess the evolutionary distinctiveness of NSH, and 3) apply several approaches for defining conservation units towards setting conservation priorities for NSH. Results Bayesian cluster analyses of genetic differentiation identified four major groups, corresponding to NSH and three groups of ELW (Western Jutland, Central Jutland, Baltic Sea). Estimates of historical migration rates indicated recolonization in a north-eastern direction, suggesting that all except the Baltic Sea population predominantly represent postglacial recolonization via the ancient Elbe River. Contemporary gene flow has not occurred between NSH and ELW, with a divergence time within the last 4,000 years suggested from coalescence methods. NSH showed interbreeding with ELW when brought into contact by stocking. Thus, reproductive isolation of NSH was not absolute, although possible interbreeding beyond the F1 level could not be resolved. Conclusion Fishes of the C. lavaretus complex in the Jutland Peninsula originate from the same recolonization event. NSH has evolved recently and its species status may be questioned due to incomplete reproductive isolation from ELW, but it was shown to merit consideration as an independent conservation unit. Yet, application of several approaches for defining conservation units generated mixed outcomes regarding its conservation priority. Within the total species complex, it remains one among many recently evolved unique forms. Its uniqueness and high conservation priority is more evident at a local geographical scale, where conservation efforts will also benefit populations of a number of other endangered species. PMID:18471278

A phylogenetic study of Laeliinae (Orchidaceae) based on combined nuclear and plastid DNA sequences

PubMed Central

van den Berg, Cássio; Higgins, Wesley E.; Dressler, Robert L.; Whitten, W. Mark; Soto-Arenas, Miguel A.; Chase, Mark W.

2009-01-01

Background and Aims Laeliinae are a neotropical orchid subtribe with approx. 1500 species in 50 genera. In this study, an attempt is made to assess generic alliances based on molecular phylogenetic analysis of DNA sequence data. Methods Six DNA datasets were gathered: plastid trnL intron, trnL-F spacer, matK gene and trnK introns upstream and dowstream from matK and nuclear ITS rDNA. Data were analysed with maximum parsimony (MP) and Bayesian analysis with mixed models (BA). Key Results Although relationships between Laeliinae and outgroups are well supported, within the subtribe sequence variation is low considering the broad taxonomic range covered. Localized incongruence between the ITS and plastid trees was found. A combined tree followed the ITS trees more closely, but the levels of support obtained with MP were low. The Bayesian analysis recovered more well-supported nodes. The trees from combined MP and BA allowed eight generic alliances to be recognized within Laeliinae, all of which show trends in morphological characters but lack unambiguous synapomorphies. Conclusions By using combined plastid and nuclear DNA data in conjunction with mixed-models Bayesian inference, it is possible to delimit smaller groups within Laeliinae and discuss general patterns of pollination and hybridization compatibility. Furthermore, these small groups can now be used for further detailed studies to explain morphological evolution and diversification patterns within the subtribe. PMID:19423551

Investigating the Effects of Imputation Methods for Modelling Gene Networks Using a Dynamic Bayesian Network from Gene Expression Data

PubMed Central

CHAI, Lian En; LAW, Chow Kuan; MOHAMAD, Mohd Saberi; CHONG, Chuii Khim; CHOON, Yee Wen; DERIS, Safaai; ILLIAS, Rosli Md

2014-01-01

Background: Gene expression data often contain missing expression values. Therefore, several imputation methods have been applied to solve the missing values, which include k-nearest neighbour (kNN), local least squares (LLS), and Bayesian principal component analysis (BPCA). However, the effects of these imputation methods on the modelling of gene regulatory networks from gene expression data have rarely been investigated and analysed using a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN). Methods: In the present study, we separately imputed datasets of the Escherichia coli S.O.S. DNA repair pathway and the Saccharomyces cerevisiae cell cycle pathway with kNN, LLS, and BPCA, and subsequently used these to generate gene regulatory networks (GRNs) using a discrete DBN. We made comparisons on the basis of previous studies in order to select the gene network with the least error. Results: We found that BPCA and LLS performed better on larger networks (based on the S. cerevisiae dataset), whereas kNN performed better on smaller networks (based on the E. coli dataset). Conclusion: The results suggest that the performance of each imputation method is dependent on the size of the dataset, and this subsequently affects the modelling of the resultant GRNs using a DBN. In addition, on the basis of these results, a DBN has the capacity to discover potential edges, as well as display interactions, between genes. PMID:24876803

A Continuous Method for Gene Flow

PubMed Central

Palczewski, Michal; Beerli, Peter

2013-01-01

Most modern population genetics inference methods are based on the coalescence framework. Methods that allow estimating parameters of structured populations commonly insert migration events into the genealogies. For these methods the calculation of the coalescence probability density of a genealogy requires a product over all time periods between events. Data sets that contain populations with high rates of gene flow among them require an enormous number of calculations. A new method, transition probability-structured coalescence (TPSC), replaces the discrete migration events with probability statements. Because the speed of calculation is independent of the amount of gene flow, this method allows calculating the coalescence densities efficiently. The current implementation of TPSC uses an approximation simplifying the interaction among lineages. Simulations and coverage comparisons of TPSC vs. MIGRATE show that TPSC allows estimation of high migration rates more precisely, but because of the approximation the estimation of low migration rates is biased. The implementation of TPSC into programs that calculate quantities on phylogenetic tree structures is straightforward, so the TPSC approach will facilitate more general inferences in many computer programs. PMID:23666937

A multiphase ion-transport analysis of the electrostatic disjoining pressure: implications for binary droplet coalescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mason, Lachlan; Gebauer, Felix; Bart, Hans-Jörg; Stevens, Geoffrey; Harvie, Dalton

2016-11-01

Understanding the physics of emulsion coalescence is critical for the robust simulation of industrial solvent extraction processes, in which loaded organic and raffinate phases are separated via the coalescence of dispersed droplets. At the droplet scale, predictive collision-outcome models require an accurate description of the repulsive surface forces arising from electrical-double-layer interactions. The conventional disjoining-pressure treatment of double-layer forces, however, relies on assumptions which do not hold generally for deformable droplet collisions: namely, low interfacial curvature and negligible advection of ion species. This study investigates the validity bounds of the disjoining pressure approximation for low-inertia droplet interactions. A multiphase ion-transport model, based on a coupling of droplet-scale Nernst-Planck and Navier-Stokes equations, predicts ion-concentration fields that are consistent with the equilibrium Boltzmann distribution; indicating that the disjoining-pressure approach is valid for both static and dynamic interactions in low-Reynolds-number settings. The present findings support the development of coalescence kernels for application in macro-scale population balance modelling.

DEMOGRAPHIC CONSEQUENCES OF COALESCENCE IN SPORELING POPULATIONS OF MAZZAELLA LAMINARIOIDES (GIGARTINALES, RHODOPHYTA)(1).

PubMed

Santelices, B; Alvarado, J L

2008-06-01

Coalescing macroalgae are ecologically important members of intertidal and shallow subtidal communities. However, we still lack quantitative information on the demographic consequences of coalescence. Using demographic models developed for modular invertebrates, we studied the demography of settlement and early recruitment in the coalescing macroalga Mazzaella laminarioides (Bory) Fredericq. Permanently marked microscopic fields on laboratory-incubated and field-incubated plates were monitored regularly (at 15, 30, 45, and 60 d) using image analysis techniques to evaluate the relative importance of settler abundance, mortality, coalescence (fusion), and fission on the changes in size and numbers of recruits. On the plates, spores settled individually or in groups. Over time, spores in close proximity may coalesce, resulting in a mixture of unisporic and multisporic crusts. When new spores arrive, they may or may not coalesce with previously settled crusts. Coalescence and mortality reduce the number of sporelings, but coalescence increases the size of the sporelings, thereby reducing further probability of sporeling mortality. Crust fissions are negligible in frequency, while the frequency of coalescence increases from ∼25% after only 3 d, to ∼75% after 60 d. Thus, as a result of variable settlement, mortality, and coalescence, any area colonized by M. laminarioides would contain a mixture of crusts of different sizes, ages, and genetic constitution. The interactions between the above three processes create a more complex survivorship curve than the ones known for unitary organisms. © 2008 Phycological Society of America.

Nuclear introns outperform mitochondrial DNA in inter-specific phylogenetic reconstruction: Lessons from horseshoe bats (Rhinolophidae: Chiroptera).

PubMed

Dool, Serena E; Puechmaille, Sebastien J; Foley, Nicole M; Allegrini, Benjamin; Bastian, Anna; Mutumi, Gregory L; Maluleke, Tinyiko G; Odendaal, Lizelle J; Teeling, Emma C; Jacobs, David S

2016-04-01

Despite many studies illustrating the perils of utilising mitochondrial DNA in phylogenetic studies, it remains one of the most widely used genetic markers for this purpose. Over the last decade, nuclear introns have been proposed as alternative markers for phylogenetic reconstruction. However, the resolution capabilities of mtDNA and nuclear introns have rarely been quantified and compared. In the current study we generated a novel ∼5kb dataset comprising six nuclear introns and a mtDNA fragment. We assessed the relative resolution capabilities of the six intronic fragments with respect to each other, when used in various combinations together, and when compared to the traditionally used mtDNA. We focused on a major clade in the horseshoe bat family (Afro-Palaearctic clade; Rhinolophidae) as our case study. This old, widely distributed and speciose group contains a high level of conserved morphology. This morphological stasis renders the reconstruction of the phylogeny of this group with traditional morphological characters complex. We sampled multiple individuals per species to represent their geographic distributions as best as possible (122 individuals, 24 species, 68 localities). We reconstructed the species phylogeny using several complementary methods (partitioned Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian and Bayesian multispecies-coalescent) and made inferences based on consensus across these methods. We computed pairwise comparisons based on Robinson-Foulds tree distance metric between all Bayesian topologies generated (27,000) for every gene(s) and visualised the tree space using multidimensional scaling (MDS) plots. Using our supported species phylogeny we estimated the ancestral state of key traits of interest within this group, e.g. echolocation peak frequency which has been implicated in speciation. Our results revealed many potential cryptic species within this group, even in taxa where this was not suspected a priori and also found evidence for mtDNA introgression. We demonstrated that by using just two introns one can recover a better supported species tree than when using the mtDNA alone, despite the shorter overall length of the combined introns. Additionally, when combining any single intron with mtDNA, we showed that the result is highly similar to the mtDNA gene tree and far from the true species tree and therefore this approach should be avoided. We caution against the indiscriminate use of mtDNA in phylogenetic studies and advocate for pilot studies to select nuclear introns. The selection of marker type and number is a crucial step that is best based on critical examination of preliminary or previously published data. Based on our findings and previous publications, we recommend the following markers to recover phylogenetic relationships between recently diverged taxa (<20 My) in bats and other mammals: ACOX2, COPS7A, BGN, ROGDI and STAT5A. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian structural equation modeling: a more flexible representation of substantive theory.

PubMed

Muthén, Bengt; Asparouhov, Tihomir

2012-09-01

This article proposes a new approach to factor analysis and structural equation modeling using Bayesian analysis. The new approach replaces parameter specifications of exact zeros with approximate zeros based on informative, small-variance priors. It is argued that this produces an analysis that better reflects substantive theories. The proposed Bayesian approach is particularly beneficial in applications where parameters are added to a conventional model such that a nonidentified model is obtained if maximum-likelihood estimation is applied. This approach is useful for measurement aspects of latent variable modeling, such as with confirmatory factor analysis, and the measurement part of structural equation modeling. Two application areas are studied, cross-loadings and residual correlations in confirmatory factor analysis. An example using a full structural equation model is also presented, showing an efficient way to find model misspecification. The approach encompasses 3 elements: model testing using posterior predictive checking, model estimation, and model modification. Monte Carlo simulations and real data are analyzed using Mplus. The real-data analyses use data from Holzinger and Swineford's (1939) classic mental abilities study, Big Five personality factor data from a British survey, and science achievement data from the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988.

BASiCS: Bayesian Analysis of Single-Cell Sequencing Data

PubMed Central

Vallejos, Catalina A.; Marioni, John C.; Richardson, Sylvia

2015-01-01

Single-cell mRNA sequencing can uncover novel cell-to-cell heterogeneity in gene expression levels in seemingly homogeneous populations of cells. However, these experiments are prone to high levels of unexplained technical noise, creating new challenges for identifying genes that show genuine heterogeneous expression within the population of cells under study. BASiCS (Bayesian Analysis of Single-Cell Sequencing data) is an integrated Bayesian hierarchical model where: (i) cell-specific normalisation constants are estimated as part of the model parameters, (ii) technical variability is quantified based on spike-in genes that are artificially introduced to each analysed cell’s lysate and (iii) the total variability of the expression counts is decomposed into technical and biological components. BASiCS also provides an intuitive detection criterion for highly (or lowly) variable genes within the population of cells under study. This is formalised by means of tail posterior probabilities associated to high (or low) biological cell-to-cell variance contributions, quantities that can be easily interpreted by users. We demonstrate our method using gene expression measurements from mouse Embryonic Stem Cells. Cross-validation and meaningful enrichment of gene ontology categories within genes classified as highly (or lowly) variable supports the efficacy of our approach. PMID:26107944

BASiCS: Bayesian Analysis of Single-Cell Sequencing Data.

PubMed

Vallejos, Catalina A; Marioni, John C; Richardson, Sylvia

2015-06-01

Single-cell mRNA sequencing can uncover novel cell-to-cell heterogeneity in gene expression levels in seemingly homogeneous populations of cells. However, these experiments are prone to high levels of unexplained technical noise, creating new challenges for identifying genes that show genuine heterogeneous expression within the population of cells under study. BASiCS (Bayesian Analysis of Single-Cell Sequencing data) is an integrated Bayesian hierarchical model where: (i) cell-specific normalisation constants are estimated as part of the model parameters, (ii) technical variability is quantified based on spike-in genes that are artificially introduced to each analysed cell's lysate and (iii) the total variability of the expression counts is decomposed into technical and biological components. BASiCS also provides an intuitive detection criterion for highly (or lowly) variable genes within the population of cells under study. This is formalised by means of tail posterior probabilities associated to high (or low) biological cell-to-cell variance contributions, quantities that can be easily interpreted by users. We demonstrate our method using gene expression measurements from mouse Embryonic Stem Cells. Cross-validation and meaningful enrichment of gene ontology categories within genes classified as highly (or lowly) variable supports the efficacy of our approach.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Bayesian Data Analysis in Astronomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Sanjib

2017-08-01

Markov Chain Monte Carlo based Bayesian data analysis has now become the method of choice for analyzing and interpreting data in almost all disciplines of science. In astronomy, over the last decade, we have also seen a steady increase in the number of papers that employ Monte Carlo based Bayesian analysis. New, efficient Monte Carlo based methods are continuously being developed and explored. In this review, we first explain the basics of Bayesian theory and discuss how to set up data analysis problems within this framework. Next, we provide an overview of various Monte Carlo based methods for performing Bayesian data analysis. Finally, we discuss advanced ideas that enable us to tackle complex problems and thus hold great promise for the future. We also distribute downloadable computer software (available at https://github.com/sanjibs/bmcmc/ ) that implements some of the algorithms and examples discussed here.

A menu-driven software package of Bayesian nonparametric (and parametric) mixed models for regression analysis and density estimation.

PubMed

Karabatsos, George

2017-02-01

Most of applied statistics involves regression analysis of data. In practice, it is important to specify a regression model that has minimal assumptions which are not violated by data, to ensure that statistical inferences from the model are informative and not misleading. This paper presents a stand-alone and menu-driven software package, Bayesian Regression: Nonparametric and Parametric Models, constructed from MATLAB Compiler. Currently, this package gives the user a choice from 83 Bayesian models for data analysis. They include 47 Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) infinite-mixture regression models; 5 BNP infinite-mixture models for density estimation; and 31 normal random effects models (HLMs), including normal linear models. Each of the 78 regression models handles either a continuous, binary, or ordinal dependent variable, and can handle multi-level (grouped) data. All 83 Bayesian models can handle the analysis of weighted observations (e.g., for meta-analysis), and the analysis of left-censored, right-censored, and/or interval-censored data. Each BNP infinite-mixture model has a mixture distribution assigned one of various BNP prior distributions, including priors defined by either the Dirichlet process, Pitman-Yor process (including the normalized stable process), beta (two-parameter) process, normalized inverse-Gaussian process, geometric weights prior, dependent Dirichlet process, or the dependent infinite-probits prior. The software user can mouse-click to select a Bayesian model and perform data analysis via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. After the sampling completes, the software automatically opens text output that reports MCMC-based estimates of the model's posterior distribution and model predictive fit to the data. Additional text and/or graphical output can be generated by mouse-clicking other menu options. This includes output of MCMC convergence analyses, and estimates of the model's posterior predictive distribution, for selected functionals and values of covariates. The software is illustrated through the BNP regression analysis of real data.

Extension to Higher Mass Numbers of an Improved Knockout-Ablation-Coalescence Model for Secondary Neutron and Light Ion Production in Cosmic Ray Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Indi Sriprisan, Sirikul; Townsend, Lawrence; Cucinotta, Francis A.; Miller, Thomas M.

Purpose: An analytical knockout-ablation-coalescence model capable of making quantitative predictions of the neutron spectra from high-energy nucleon-nucleus and nucleus-nucleus collisions is being developed for use in space radiation protection studies. The FORTRAN computer code that implements this model is called UBERNSPEC. The knockout or abrasion stage of the model is based on Glauber multiple scattering theory. The ablation part of the model uses the classical evaporation model of Weisskopf-Ewing. In earlier work, the knockout-ablation model has been extended to incorporate important coalescence effects into the formalism. Recently, alpha coalescence has been incorporated, and the ability to predict light ion spectra with the coalescence model added. The earlier versions were limited to nuclei with mass numbers less than 69. In this work, the UBERNSPEC code has been extended to make predictions of secondary neutrons and light ion production from the interactions of heavy charged particles with higher mass numbers (as large as 238). The predictions are compared with published measurements of neutron spectra and light ion energy for a variety of collision pairs. Furthermore, the predicted spectra from this work are compared with the predictions from the recently-developed heavy ion event generator incorporated in the Monte Carlo radiation transport code HETC-HEDS.

A zero-gravity demonstration of the collision and coalescence of water droplets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hung, R. J.; Vaughan, O. H.; Smith, R. E.

1974-01-01

The mechanics of the collision and coalescence of liquid droplets is one of the main research areas in the fields of nuclear physics, astrophysics, meteorology and fluid mechanics. The crew members on the Skylab 3 and 4 missions were requested to perform demonstrations of the collision and coalescence of water droplets under the low gravity environment at orbital altitude. In Skylab 4 two water droplets with equal volumes, 30 cu cm each, were used. A dark colored droplet (contaminated with grape drink) moving with a velocity of 3.14 cm/sec collided with a stationary pink colored droplet (contaminated with strawberry drink) and coalescence occurred. Theoretical models are proposed to study the various stages of the collision-coalescence processes. Special considerations are concentrated in the investigation of the bounce-coalescence and coalescence-instability processes. The surface tension of the coalesced droplets was calculated to be 52 dynes/cm in perfect agreement with laboratory measurements made after the flight using a reproduction of the liquids.

Coalescence-Induced Jumping of Multiple Condensate Droplets on Hierarchical Superhydrophobic Surfaces

PubMed Central

Chen, Xuemei; Patel, Ravi S.; Weibel, Justin A.; Garimella, Suresh V.

2016-01-01

Coalescence-induced jumping of condensate droplets from a superhydrophobic surface with hierarchical micro/nanoscale roughness is quantitatively characterized. Experimental observations show that the condensate droplet jumping is induced by coalescence of multiple droplets of different sizes, and that the coalesced droplet trajectories typically deviate from the surface normal. A depth-from-defocus image processing technique is developed to track the out-of-plane displacement of the jumping droplets, so as to accurately measure the droplet size and velocity. The results demonstrate that the highest jumping velocity is achieved when two droplets coalesce. The jumping velocity decreases gradually with an increase in the number of coalescing droplets, despite the greater potential surface energy released upon coalescence. A general theoretical model that accounts for viscous dissipation, surface adhesion, line tension, the initial droplet wetting states, and the number and sizes of the coalescing droplets is developed to explain the trends of droplet jumping velocity observed in the experiments. PMID:26725512

Impact of Colic Pain as a Significant Factor for Predicting the Stone Free Rate of One-Session Shock Wave Lithotripsy for Treating Ureter Stones: A Bayesian Logistic Regression Model Analysis

PubMed Central

Chung, Doo Yong; Cho, Kang Su; Lee, Dae Hun; Han, Jang Hee; Kang, Dong Hyuk; Jung, Hae Do; Kown, Jong Kyou; Ham, Won Sik; Choi, Young Deuk; Lee, Joo Yong

2015-01-01

Purpose This study was conducted to evaluate colic pain as a prognostic pretreatment factor that can influence ureter stone clearance and to estimate the probability of stone-free status in shock wave lithotripsy (SWL) patients with a ureter stone. Materials and Methods We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 1,418 patients who underwent their first SWL between 2005 and 2013. Among these patients, 551 had a ureter stone measuring 4–20 mm and were thus eligible for our analyses. The colic pain as the chief complaint was defined as either subjective flank pain during history taking and physical examination. Propensity-scores for established for colic pain was calculated for each patient using multivariate logistic regression based upon the following covariates: age, maximal stone length (MSL), and mean stone density (MSD). Each factor was evaluated as predictor for stone-free status by Bayesian and non-Bayesian logistic regression model. Results After propensity-score matching, 217 patients were extracted in each group from the total patient cohort. There were no statistical differences in variables used in propensity- score matching. One-session success and stone-free rate were also higher in the painful group (73.7% and 71.0%, respectively) than in the painless group (63.6% and 60.4%, respectively). In multivariate non-Bayesian and Bayesian logistic regression models, a painful stone, shorter MSL, and lower MSD were significant factors for one-session stone-free status in patients who underwent SWL. Conclusions Colic pain in patients with ureter calculi was one of the significant predicting factors including MSL and MSD for one-session stone-free status of SWL. PMID:25902059

Bayesian wavelet PCA methodology for turbomachinery damage diagnosis under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Shengli; Jiang, Xiaomo; Huang, Jinzhi; Yang, Shuhua; Wang, Xiaofang

2016-12-01

Centrifugal compressor often suffers various defects such as impeller cracking, resulting in forced outage of the total plant. Damage diagnostics and condition monitoring of such a turbomachinery system has become an increasingly important and powerful tool to prevent potential failure in components and reduce unplanned forced outage and further maintenance costs, while improving reliability, availability and maintainability of a turbomachinery system. This paper presents a probabilistic signal processing methodology for damage diagnostics using multiple time history data collected from different locations of a turbomachine, considering data uncertainty and multivariate correlation. The proposed methodology is based on the integration of three advanced state-of-the-art data mining techniques: discrete wavelet packet transform, Bayesian hypothesis testing, and probabilistic principal component analysis. The multiresolution wavelet analysis approach is employed to decompose a time series signal into different levels of wavelet coefficients. These coefficients represent multiple time-frequency resolutions of a signal. Bayesian hypothesis testing is then applied to each level of wavelet coefficient to remove possible imperfections. The ratio of posterior odds Bayesian approach provides a direct means to assess whether there is imperfection in the decomposed coefficients, thus avoiding over-denoising. Power spectral density estimated by the Welch method is utilized to evaluate the effectiveness of Bayesian wavelet cleansing method. Furthermore, the probabilistic principal component analysis approach is developed to reduce dimensionality of multiple time series and to address multivariate correlation and data uncertainty for damage diagnostics. The proposed methodology and generalized framework is demonstrated with a set of sensor data collected from a real-world centrifugal compressor with impeller cracks, through both time series and contour analyses of vibration signal and principal components.

Bayesian species delimitation in Pleophylla chafers (Coleoptera) - the importance of prior choice and morphology.

PubMed

Eberle, Jonas; Warnock, Rachel C M; Ahrens, Dirk

2016-05-05

Defining species units can be challenging, especially during the earliest stages of speciation, when phylogenetic inference and delimitation methods may be compromised by incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) or secondary gene flow. Integrative approaches to taxonomy, which combine molecular and morphological evidence, have the potential to be valuable in such cases. In this study we investigated the South African scarab beetle genus Pleophylla using data collected from 110 individuals of eight putative morphospecies. The dataset included four molecular markers (cox1, 16S, rrnL, ITS1) and morphometric data based on male genital morphology. We applied a suite of molecular and morphological approaches to species delimitation, and implemented a novel Bayesian approach in the software iBPP, which enables continuous morphological trait and molecular data to be combined. Traditional morphology-based species assignments were supported quantitatively by morphometric analyses of the male genitalia (eigenshape analysis, CVA, LDA). While the ITS1-based delineation was also broadly congruent with the morphospecies, the cox1 data resulted in over-splitting (GMYC modelling, haplotype networks, PTP, ABGD). In the most extreme case morphospecies shared identical haplotypes, which may be attributable to ILS based on statistical tests performed using the software JML. We found the strongest support for putative morphospecies based on phylogenetic evidence using the combined approach implemented in iBPP. However, support for putative species was sensitive to the use of alternative guide trees and alternative combinations of priors on the population size (θ) and rootage (τ 0 ) parameters, especially when the analysis was based on molecular or morphological data alone. We demonstrate that continuous morphological trait data can be extremely valuable in assessing competing hypotheses to species delimitation. In particular, we show that the inclusion of morphological data in an integrative Bayesian framework can improve the resolution of inferred species units. However, we also demonstrate that this approach is extremely sensitive to guide tree and prior parameter choice. These parameters should be chosen with caution - if possible - based on independent empirical evidence, or careful sensitivity analyses should be performed to assess the robustness of results. Young species provide exemplars for investigating the mechanisms of speciation and for assessing the performance of tools used to delimit species on the basis of molecular and/or morphological evidence.

Estimating the Effective Sample Size of Tree Topologies from Bayesian Phylogenetic Analyses

PubMed Central

Lanfear, Robert; Hua, Xia; Warren, Dan L.

2016-01-01

Bayesian phylogenetic analyses estimate posterior distributions of phylogenetic tree topologies and other parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Before making inferences from these distributions, it is important to assess their adequacy. To this end, the effective sample size (ESS) estimates how many truly independent samples of a given parameter the output of the MCMC represents. The ESS of a parameter is frequently much lower than the number of samples taken from the MCMC because sequential samples from the chain can be non-independent due to autocorrelation. Typically, phylogeneticists use a rule of thumb that the ESS of all parameters should be greater than 200. However, we have no method to calculate an ESS of tree topology samples, despite the fact that the tree topology is often the parameter of primary interest and is almost always central to the estimation of other parameters. That is, we lack a method to determine whether we have adequately sampled one of the most important parameters in our analyses. In this study, we address this problem by developing methods to estimate the ESS for tree topologies. We combine these methods with two new diagnostic plots for assessing posterior samples of tree topologies, and compare their performance on simulated and empirical data sets. Combined, the methods we present provide new ways to assess the mixing and convergence of phylogenetic tree topologies in Bayesian MCMC analyses. PMID:27435794

Using multi-level Bayesian lesion-symptom mapping to probe the body-part-specificity of gesture imitation skills.

PubMed

Achilles, Elisabeth I S; Weiss, Peter H; Fink, Gereon R; Binder, Ellen; Price, Cathy J; Hope, Thomas M H

2017-11-01

Past attempts to identify the neural substrates of hand and finger imitation skills in the left hemisphere of the brain have yielded inconsistent results. Here, we analyse those associations in a large sample of 257 left hemisphere stroke patients. By introducing novel Bayesian methods, we characterise lesion symptom associations at three levels: the voxel-level, the single-region level (using anatomically defined regions), and the region-pair level. The results are inconsistent across those three levels and we argue that each level of analysis makes assumptions which constrain the results it can produce. Regardless of the inconsistencies across levels, and contrary to past studies which implicated differential neural substrates for hand and finger imitation, we find no consistent voxels or regions, where damage affects one imitation skill and not the other, at any of the three analysis levels. Our novel Bayesian approach indicates that any apparent differences appear to be driven by an increased sensitivity of hand imitation skills to lesions that also impair finger imitation. In our analyses, the results of the highest level of analysis (region-pairs) emphasise a role of the primary somatosensory and motor cortices, and the occipital lobe in imitation. We argue that this emphasis supports an account of both imitation tasks based on direct sensor-motor connections, which throws doubt on past accounts which imply the need for an intermediate (e.g. body-part-coding) system of representation. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Origin, Spread and Demography of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex

PubMed Central

Wirth, Thierry; Hildebrand, Falk; Allix-Béguec, Caroline; Wölbeling, Florian; Kubica, Tanja; Kremer, Kristin; van Soolingen, Dick; Rüsch-Gerdes, Sabine; Locht, Camille; Brisse, Sylvain; Meyer, Axel

2008-01-01

The evolutionary timing and spread of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC), one of the most successful groups of bacterial pathogens, remains largely unknown. Here, using mycobacterial tandem repeat sequences as genetic markers, we show that the MTBC consists of two independent clades, one composed exclusively of M. tuberculosis lineages from humans and the other composed of both animal and human isolates. The latter also likely derived from a human pathogenic lineage, supporting the hypothesis of an original human host. Using Bayesian statistics and experimental data on the variability of the mycobacterial markers in infected patients, we estimated the age of the MTBC at 40,000 years, coinciding with the expansion of “modern” human populations out of Africa. Furthermore, coalescence analysis revealed a strong and recent demographic expansion in almost all M. tuberculosis lineages, which coincides with the human population explosion over the last two centuries. These findings thus unveil the dynamic dimension of the association between human host and pathogen populations. PMID:18802459

Evolutionary history and dynamics of dog rabies virus in western and central Africa.

PubMed

Talbi, Chiraz; Holmes, Edward C; de Benedictis, Paola; Faye, Ousmane; Nakouné, Emmanuel; Gamatié, Djibo; Diarra, Abass; Elmamy, Bezeid Ould; Sow, Adama; Adjogoua, Edgard Valery; Sangare, Oumou; Dundon, William G; Capua, Ilaria; Sall, Amadou A; Bourhy, Hervé

2009-04-01

The burden of rabies in Africa is estimated at 24,000 human deaths year(-1), almost all of which result from infection with dog rabies viruses (RABV). To investigate the evolutionary dynamics of RABV in western and central Africa, 92 isolates sampled from 27 African countries over 29 years were collected and sequenced. This revealed that RABV currently circulating in dogs in this region fell into a single lineage designated 'Africa 2'. A detailed analysis of the phylogeographical structure of this Africa 2 lineage revealed strong population subdivision at the country level, with only limited movement of virus among localities, including a possible east-to-west spread across Africa. In addition, Bayesian coalescent analysis suggested that the Africa 2 lineage was introduced into this region of Africa only recently (probably <200 years ago), in accordance with the timescale of expanding European colonial influence and urbanization, and then spread relatively slowly, perhaps occupying the entire region in a 100 year period.

A bayesian approach to classification criteria for spectacled eiders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, B.L.; Wade, P.R.; Stehn, R.A.; Cochrane, J.F.

1996-01-01

To facilitate decisions to classify species according to risk of extinction, we used Bayesian methods to analyze trend data for the Spectacled Eider, an arctic sea duck. Trend data from three independent surveys of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta were analyzed individually and in combination to yield posterior distributions for population growth rates. We used classification criteria developed by the recovery team for Spectacled Eiders that seek to equalize errors of under- or overprotecting the species. We conducted both a Bayesian decision analysis and a frequentist (classical statistical inference) decision analysis. Bayesian decision analyses are computationally easier, yield basically the same results, and yield results that are easier to explain to nonscientists. With the exception of the aerial survey analysis of the 10 most recent years, both Bayesian and frequentist methods indicated that an endangered classification is warranted. The discrepancy between surveys warrants further research. Although the trend data are abundance indices, we used a preliminary estimate of absolute abundance to demonstrate how to calculate extinction distributions using the joint probability distributions for population growth rate and variance in growth rate generated by the Bayesian analysis. Recent apparent increases in abundance highlight the need for models that apply to declining and then recovering species.

Characterization of Solids Deposited on the Modular Caustic-Side Solvent Extraction Unit (MCU) Strip Effluent (SE) Coalescer Media Removed in April 2015

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fondeur, F. F.

On June 2015, Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) received a Strip Effluent (SE) coalescer (FLT-304) from MCU. That coalescer was first installed at MCU in late October 2014 and removed in April 2015. While processing approximately 48,700 gallons of strip solution, the pressure drop steadily increased linearly from 1 psi to near 16 psi (the administrative limit is 17 psi) with the total filtrate volume (2.1E-4 psi/gal of filtrate). The linear behavior is due to the combined effect of a constant deposition of material that starts from the closed-end to the mid-section of the coalescer reducing the available surface areamore » of the coalescer for fluid passage (linearly with filtrate volume) and the formation of a secondary emulsion (water in NG-CSSX) on the fibers of the coalescer media. Both effects reduced the coalescer porosity by at least 13% (after processing 48,700 gallons). Before the coalescer was removed, it was flushed with a 10 mM boric acid solution to reduce the dose level. To determine the nature of the deposited material, a physical and chemical analysis of the coalescer was conducted. Characterization of this coalescer revealed the adsorption of organic containing amines (secondary amides and primary amines), TiDG, degraded modifier (with no hydroxyl group), MaxCalix, and oxidized hydrocarbon (possibly from Isopar™L or from lubricant used at MCU) onto the coalescer media. The amide and amines are possibly from the decomposition of the suppressor (TiDG). The modifier and MaxCalix were the largest components of the deposited organic material, as determined from leaching the coalescer with dichloromethane. Both the Fourier-Transformed Infrared (FTIR) and Fourier-Transformed Hydrogen Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (FT-HNMR) results indicated that some of the modifier was degraded (missing their OH groups). The modifier was observed everywhere in the examined coalescer pieces (FTIR), while the TiDG and its decomposition products were observed at the entrance discs of the coalescer. A solvent trim (a cocktail of solvent components with a high concentration of modifier) was added to the solvent on 2/22/2015. It is believed that the trim did not mix completely with the solvent and that it was subsequently spread around the MCU components including the coalescers, where it may have deposited. Chronologically, the modifier, the TiDG’s decomposition products and silicates deposited on the entrance discs first and after the pressure drop increased significantly, parts of the coalescer media detached itself from the central porous steel mandrel and a significant amount of steel debris, mercury, titanium, and additional aluminum and silicates deposited on the coalescer.« less

Coalescence preference in densely packed microbubbles

DOE PAGES

Kim, Yeseul; Lim, Su Jin; Gim, Bopil; ...

2015-01-13

A bubble merged from two parent bubbles with different size tends to be placed closer to the larger parent. This phenomenon is known as the coalescence preference. Here we demonstrate that the coalescence preference can be blocked inside a densely packed cluster of bubbles. We utilized high-speed high-resolution X-ray microscopy to clearly visualize individual coalescence events inside densely packed microbubbles with a local packing fraction of ~40%. Thus, the surface energy release theory predicts an exponent of 5 in a relation between the relative coalescence position and the parent size ratio, whereas our observation for coalescence in densely packed microbubblesmore » shows a different exponent of 2. We believe that this result would be important to understand the reality of coalescence dynamics in a variety of packing situations of soft matter.« less

Coalescence preference in densely packed microbubbles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Yeseul; Lim, Su Jin; Gim, Bopil

A bubble merged from two parent bubbles with different size tends to be placed closer to the larger parent. This phenomenon is known as the coalescence preference. Here we demonstrate that the coalescence preference can be blocked inside a densely packed cluster of bubbles. We utilized high-speed high-resolution X-ray microscopy to clearly visualize individual coalescence events inside densely packed microbubbles with a local packing fraction of ~40%. Thus, the surface energy release theory predicts an exponent of 5 in a relation between the relative coalescence position and the parent size ratio, whereas our observation for coalescence in densely packed microbubblesmore » shows a different exponent of 2. We believe that this result would be important to understand the reality of coalescence dynamics in a variety of packing situations of soft matter.« less

Contrasting support for alternative models of genomic variation based on microhabitat preference: species-specific effects of climate change in alpine sedges.

PubMed

Massatti, Rob; Knowles, L Lacey

2016-08-01

Deterministic processes may uniquely affect codistributed species' phylogeographic patterns such that discordant genetic variation among taxa is predicted. Yet, explicitly testing expectations of genomic discordance in a statistical framework remains challenging. Here, we construct spatially and temporally dynamic models to investigate the hypothesized effect of microhabitat preferences on the permeability of glaciated regions to gene flow in two closely related montane species. Utilizing environmental niche models from the Last Glacial Maximum and the present to inform demographic models of changes in habitat suitability over time, we evaluate the relative probabilities of two alternative models using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) in which glaciated regions are either (i) permeable or (ii) a barrier to gene flow. Results based on the fit of the empirical data to data sets simulated using a spatially explicit coalescent under alternative models indicate that genomic data are consistent with predictions about the hypothesized role of microhabitat in generating discordant patterns of genetic variation among the taxa. Specifically, a model in which glaciated areas acted as a barrier was much more probable based on patterns of genomic variation in Carex nova, a wet-adapted species. However, in the dry-adapted Carex chalciolepis, the permeable model was more probable, although the difference in the support of the models was small. This work highlights how statistical inferences can be used to distinguish deterministic processes that are expected to result in discordant genomic patterns among species, including species-specific responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Phylogeography and disjunct distribution in Lychnophora ericoides (Asteraceae), an endangered cerrado shrub species.

PubMed

Collevatti, Rosane Garcia; Rabelo, Suelen Gonçalves; Vieira, Roberto F

2009-09-01

Lychnophora ericoides (Asteraceae) presents disjunct geographical distribution in cerrado rupestre in the south-east and central Brazil. The phylogeography of the species was investigated to understand the origin of the disjunct geographical distribution. Populations in the south and centre of Serra do Espinhaço, south-east Brazil and on ten other localities in Federal District and Goiás in central Brazil were sampled. Analyses were based on the polymorphisms at chloroplast (trnL intron and psbA-trnH intergenic spacer) and nuclear (ITS nrDNA) genomes. From 12 populations, 192 individuals were sequenced. Network analysis, AMOVA and the Mantel test were performed to understand the relationships among haplotypes and population genetic structure. To understand better the origin of disjunct distribution, demographic parameters and time to most recent common ancestor (T(MRCA)) were estimated using coalescent analyses. A remarkable differentiation between populations from the south-east and central Brazil was found and no haplotype was shared between these two regions. No significant effect of isolation by distance was detected. Coalescent analyses showed that some populations are shrinking and others are expanding and that gene flow between populations from the south-east and central Brazil was probably negligible. The results strongly support that the disjunct distribution of L. ericoides may represent a climatic relict and that long-distance gene flow is unlikely. With an estimated time to most recent common ancestor (T(MRCA)) dated from approx. 790,655 +/- 36,551 years bp (chloroplast) and approx. 623,555 +/- 55,769 years bp (ITS), it was hypothesized that the disjunct distribution may be a consequence of an expansion of the geographical distribution favoured by the drier and colder conditions that prevailed in much of Brazil during the Kansan glaciation, followed by the retraction of the distribution due to the extinction of populations in some areas as climate became warmer and moister.

Phylogeography and disjunct distribution in Lychnophora ericoides (Asteraceae), an endangered cerrado shrub species

PubMed Central

Collevatti, Rosane Garcia; Rabelo, Suelen Gonçalves; Vieira, Roberto F.

2009-01-01

Background and Aims Lychnophora ericoides (Asteraceae) presents disjunct geographical distribution in cerrado rupestre in the south-east and central Brazil. The phylogeography of the species was investigated to understand the origin of the disjunct geographical distribution. Methods Populations in the south and centre of Serra do Espinhaço, south-east Brazil and on ten other localities in Federal District and Goiás in central Brazil were sampled. Analyses were based on the polymorphisms at chloroplast (trnL intron and psbA-trnH intergenic spacer) and nuclear (ITS nrDNA) genomes. From 12 populations, 192 individuals were sequenced. Network analysis, AMOVA and the Mantel test were performed to understand the relationships among haplotypes and population genetic structure. To understand better the origin of disjunct distribution, demographic parameters and time to most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) were estimated using coalescent analyses. Key Results A remarkable differentiation between populations from the south-east and central Brazil was found and no haplotype was shared between these two regions. No significant effect of isolation by distance was detected. Coalescent analyses showed that some populations are shrinking and others are expanding and that gene flow between populations from the south-east and central Brazil was probably negligible. Conclusions The results strongly support that the disjunct distribution of L. ericoides may represent a climatic relict and that long-distance gene flow is unlikely. With an estimated time to most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) dated from approx. 790 655 ± 36 551 years bp (chloroplast) and approx. 623 555 ± 55 769 years bp (ITS), it was hypothesized that the disjunct distribution may be a consequence of an expansion of the geographical distribution favoured by the drier and colder conditions that prevailed in much of Brazil during the Kansan glaciation, followed by the retraction of the distribution due to the extinction of populations in some areas as climate became warmer and moister. PMID:19656805

Meta-analysis of two studies in the presence of heterogeneity with applications in rare diseases.

PubMed

Friede, Tim; Röver, Christian; Wandel, Simon; Neuenschwander, Beat

2017-07-01

Random-effects meta-analyses are used to combine evidence of treatment effects from multiple studies. Since treatment effects may vary across trials due to differences in study characteristics, heterogeneity in treatment effects between studies must be accounted for to achieve valid inference. The standard model for random-effects meta-analysis assumes approximately normal effect estimates and a normal random-effects model. However, standard methods based on this model ignore the uncertainty in estimating the between-trial heterogeneity. In the special setting of only two studies and in the presence of heterogeneity, we investigate here alternatives such as the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman method (HKSJ), the modified Knapp-Hartung method (mKH, a variation of the HKSJ method) and Bayesian random-effects meta-analyses with priors covering plausible heterogeneity values; R code to reproduce the examples is presented in an appendix. The properties of these methods are assessed by applying them to five examples from various rare diseases and by a simulation study. Whereas the standard method based on normal quantiles has poor coverage, the HKSJ and mKH generally lead to very long, and therefore inconclusive, confidence intervals. The Bayesian intervals on the whole show satisfying properties and offer a reasonable compromise between these two extremes. © 2016 The Authors. Biometrical Journal published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Fundamentals and Recent Developments in Approximate Bayesian Computation

PubMed Central

Lintusaari, Jarno; Gutmann, Michael U.; Dutta, Ritabrata; Kaski, Samuel; Corander, Jukka

2017-01-01

Abstract Bayesian inference plays an important role in phylogenetics, evolutionary biology, and in many other branches of science. It provides a principled framework for dealing with uncertainty and quantifying how it changes in the light of new evidence. For many complex models and inference problems, however, only approximate quantitative answers are obtainable. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) refers to a family of algorithms for approximate inference that makes a minimal set of assumptions by only requiring that sampling from a model is possible. We explain here the fundamentals of ABC, review the classical algorithms, and highlight recent developments. [ABC; approximate Bayesian computation; Bayesian inference; likelihood-free inference; phylogenetics; simulator-based models; stochastic simulation models; tree-based models.] PMID:28175922

The image recognition based on neural network and Bayesian decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chugege

2018-04-01

The artificial neural network began in 1940, which is an important part of artificial intelligence. At present, it has become a hot topic in the fields of neuroscience, computer science, brain science, mathematics, and psychology. Thomas Bayes firstly reported the Bayesian theory in 1763. After the development in the twentieth century, it has been widespread in all areas of statistics. In recent years, due to the solution of the problem of high-dimensional integral calculation, Bayesian Statistics has been improved theoretically, which solved many problems that cannot be solved by classical statistics and is also applied to the interdisciplinary fields. In this paper, the related concepts and principles of the artificial neural network are introduced. It also summarizes the basic content and principle of Bayesian Statistics, and combines the artificial neural network technology and Bayesian decision theory and implement them in all aspects of image recognition, such as enhanced face detection method based on neural network and Bayesian decision, as well as the image classification based on the Bayesian decision. It can be seen that the combination of artificial intelligence and statistical algorithms has always been the hot research topic.

Models and simulation of 3D neuronal dendritic trees using Bayesian networks.

PubMed

López-Cruz, Pedro L; Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro; Benavides-Piccione, Ruth; DeFelipe, Javier

2011-12-01

Neuron morphology is crucial for neuronal connectivity and brain information processing. Computational models are important tools for studying dendritic morphology and its role in brain function. We applied a class of probabilistic graphical models called Bayesian networks to generate virtual dendrites from layer III pyramidal neurons from three different regions of the neocortex of the mouse. A set of 41 morphological variables were measured from the 3D reconstructions of real dendrites and their probability distributions used in a machine learning algorithm to induce the model from the data. A simulation algorithm is also proposed to obtain new dendrites by sampling values from Bayesian networks. The main advantage of this approach is that it takes into account and automatically locates the relationships between variables in the data instead of using predefined dependencies. Therefore, the methodology can be applied to any neuronal class while at the same time exploiting class-specific properties. Also, a Bayesian network was defined for each part of the dendrite, allowing the relationships to change in the different sections and to model heterogeneous developmental factors or spatial influences. Several univariate statistical tests and a novel multivariate test based on Kullback-Leibler divergence estimation confirmed that virtual dendrites were similar to real ones. The analyses of the models showed relationships that conform to current neuroanatomical knowledge and support model correctness. At the same time, studying the relationships in the models can help to identify new interactions between variables related to dendritic morphology.

A Bayesian Analysis of the Post-seismic Deformation of the Great 11 March 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Mw 9.0) Earthquake: Implications for Future Earthquake Occurrence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortega Culaciati, F. H.; Simons, M.; Minson, S. E.; Owen, S. E.; Moore, A. W.; Hetland, E. A.

2011-12-01

We aim to quantify the spatial distribution of after-slip following the Great 11 March 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Mw 9.0) earthquake and its implications for the occurrence of a future Great Earthquake, particularly in the Ibaraki region of Japan. We use a Bayesian approach (CATMIP algorithm), constrained by on-land Geonet GPS time series, to infer models of after-slip to date in the Japan megathrust. Unlike traditional inverse methods, in which a single optimum model is found, the Bayesian approach allows a complete characterization of the model parameter space by searching a-posteriori estimates of the range of plausible models. We use the Kullback-Liebler information divergence as a metric of the information gain on each subsurface slip patch, to quantify the extent to which land-based geodetic observations can constrain the upper parts of the megathrust, where the Great Tohoku-Oki earthquake took place. We aim to understand the relationships of spatial distribution of fault slip behavior in the different stages of the seismic cycle. We compare our post-seismic slip distributions to inter- and co-seismic slip distributions obtained through a Bayesian methodology as well as through traditional (optimization) inverse estimates in the published literature. We discuss implications of these analyses for the occurrence of a large earthquake in the Japan megathrust regions adjacent to the Great Tohoku-Oki earthquake.

Experimental Studies of the Effects of Anode Composition and Process Parameters on Anode Slime Adhesion and Cathode Copper Purity by Performing Copper Electrorefining in a Pilot-Scale Cell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Weizhi; Wang, Shijie; Free, Michael L.

2016-10-01

Copper electrorefining tests were conducted in a pilot-scale cell under commercial tankhouse environment to study the effects of anode compositions, current density, cathode blank width, and flow rate on anode slime behavior and cathode copper purity. Three different types of anodes (high, mid, and low impurity levels) were used in the tests and were analyzed under SEM/EDS. The harvested copper cathodes were weighed and analyzed for impurities concentrations using DC Arc. The adhered slimes and released slimes were collected, weighed, and analyzed for compositions using ICP. It was shown that the lead-to-arsenic ratio in the anodes affects the sintering and coalescence of slime particles. High current density condition can improve anode slime adhesion and cathode purity by intensifying slime particles' coalescence and dissolving part of the particles. Wide cathode blanks can raise the anodic current densities significantly and result in massive release of large slime particle aggregates, which are not likely to contaminate the cathode copper. Low flow rate can cause anode passivation and increase local temperatures in front of the anode, which leads to very intense sintering and coalescence of slime particles. The results and analyses of the tests present potential solutions for industrial copper electrorefining process.

Production of W/O/W (water-in-oil-in-water) multiple emulsions: droplet breakup and release of water.

PubMed

Schuch, Anna; Deiters, Philipp; Henne, Julius; Köhler, Karsten; Schuchmann, Heike P

2013-07-15

We investigate breakup of W/O/W double emulsion droplets at high viscosity ratios and coalescence of inner water droplets dependent on the dispersed phase content (DPC) of the inner emulsion. The rheological analyses of the inner emulsions confirm the behavior expected from literature - increasing viscosity with increasing DPC and elastic behavior for high DPC. The resulting droplet sizes seem to be influenced only by the viscosity ratio calculated using the viscosity of the inner emulsion. An influence of the elastic properties of the inner emulsions could not be observed. Moreover, breakup of double emulsion droplets seems to follow the same rules as breakup of Newtonian droplets. In the second part of the paper we focus on the release of water from double emulsions by coalescence. A direct correlation between resulting double emulsion droplet sizes and encapsulation efficiency was found for each system. The initial inner dispersed phase content has a big influence on the release rate. This can partly be explained by the influence of the dispersed phase content on collision rate. Moreover, it was found that for high internal phase concentrations inner droplets coalesce with each other. The so formed bigger inner droplets seem to increase the overall release rate. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating an icon of population persistence: the Devil's Hole pupfish

PubMed Central

Reed, J. Michael; Stockwell, Craig A.

2014-01-01

The Devil's Hole pupfish Cyprinodon diabolis has iconic status among conservation biologists because it is one of the World's most vulnerable species. Furthermore, C. diabolis is the most widely cited example of a persistent, small, isolated vertebrate population; a chronic exception to the rule that small populations do not persist long in isolation. It is widely asserted that this species has persisted in small numbers (less than 400 adults) for 10 000–20 000 years, but this assertion has never been evaluated. Here, we analyse the time series of count data for this species, and we estimate time to coalescence from microsatellite data to evaluate this hypothesis. We conclude that mean time to extinction is approximately 360–2900 years (median 410–1800), with less than a 2.1% probability of persisting 10 000 years. Median times to coalescence varied from 217 to 2530 years, but all five approximations had wide credible intervals. Our analyses suggest that Devil's Hole pupfish colonized this pool well after the Pleistocene Lakes receded, probably within the last few hundred to few thousand years; this could have occurred through human intervention. PMID:25232135

Phylogenetic Analyses: A Toolbox Expanding towards Bayesian Methods

PubMed Central

Aris-Brosou, Stéphane; Xia, Xuhua

2008-01-01

The reconstruction of phylogenies is becoming an increasingly simple activity. This is mainly due to two reasons: the democratization of computing power and the increased availability of sophisticated yet user-friendly software. This review describes some of the latest additions to the phylogenetic toolbox, along with some of their theoretical and practical limitations. It is shown that Bayesian methods are under heavy development, as they offer the possibility to solve a number of long-standing issues and to integrate several steps of the phylogenetic analyses into a single framework. Specific topics include not only phylogenetic reconstruction, but also the comparison of phylogenies, the detection of adaptive evolution, and the estimation of divergence times between species. PMID:18483574

Bayesian sensitivity analysis methods to evaluate bias due to misclassification and missing data using informative priors and external validation data.

PubMed

Luta, George; Ford, Melissa B; Bondy, Melissa; Shields, Peter G; Stamey, James D

2013-04-01

Recent research suggests that the Bayesian paradigm may be useful for modeling biases in epidemiological studies, such as those due to misclassification and missing data. We used Bayesian methods to perform sensitivity analyses for assessing the robustness of study findings to the potential effect of these two important sources of bias. We used data from a study of the joint associations of radiotherapy and smoking with primary lung cancer among breast cancer survivors. We used Bayesian methods to provide an operational way to combine both validation data and expert opinion to account for misclassification of the two risk factors and missing data. For comparative purposes we considered a "full model" that allowed for both misclassification and missing data, along with alternative models that considered only misclassification or missing data, and the naïve model that ignored both sources of bias. We identified noticeable differences between the four models with respect to the posterior distributions of the odds ratios that described the joint associations of radiotherapy and smoking with primary lung cancer. Despite those differences we found that the general conclusions regarding the pattern of associations were the same regardless of the model used. Overall our results indicate a nonsignificantly decreased lung cancer risk due to radiotherapy among nonsmokers, and a mildly increased risk among smokers. We described easy to implement Bayesian methods to perform sensitivity analyses for assessing the robustness of study findings to misclassification and missing data. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coalescence of viscous drops translating through a capillary tube

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AlMatroushi, Eisa; Borhan, Ali

2014-03-01

An experimental study of the interaction and coalescence of viscous drops moving through a cylindrical capillary tube under low Reynolds number conditions is presented. The combined pressure- and buoyancy-driven motion of drops in a Newtonian continuous phase is examined. The interaction between two drops is quantified using image analysis, and measurements of the coalescence time are reported for various drop size ratios, Bond numbers, and viscosity ratios. The time scale for coalescence in the non-axisymmetric configuration is found to be substantially larger than that for coalescence in the axisymmetric configuration. Measurements of the radius of the liquid film formed between the two drops at the instant of apparent contact are used in conjunction with a planar film drainage model to predict the dependence of the coalescence time on drop size ratio for coalescence of low viscosity-ratio drops in the axisymmetric configuration.

A Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model decomposition of performance in Approach–Avoidance Tasks

PubMed Central

Krypotos, Angelos-Miltiadis; Beckers, Tom; Kindt, Merel; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2015-01-01

Common methods for analysing response time (RT) tasks, frequently used across different disciplines of psychology, suffer from a number of limitations such as the failure to directly measure the underlying latent processes of interest and the inability to take into account the uncertainty associated with each individual's point estimate of performance. Here, we discuss a Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model and apply it to RT data. This model allows researchers to decompose performance into meaningful psychological processes and to account optimally for individual differences and commonalities, even with relatively sparse data. We highlight the advantages of the Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model decomposition by applying it to performance on Approach–Avoidance Tasks, widely used in the emotion and psychopathology literature. Model fits for two experimental data-sets demonstrate that the model performs well. The Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model overcomes important limitations of current analysis procedures and provides deeper insight in latent psychological processes of interest. PMID:25491372

Molecular characterization and epidemic history of hepatitis C virus using core sequences of isolates from Central Province, Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Shier, Medhat K; Iles, James C; El-Wetidy, Mohammad S; Ali, Hebatallah H; Al Qattan, Mohammad M

2017-01-01

The source of HCV transmission in Saudi Arabia is unknown. This study aimed to determine HCV genotypes in a representative sample of chronically infected patients in Saudi Arabia. All HCV isolates were genotyped and subtyped by sequencing of the HCV core region and 54 new HCV isolates were identified. Three sets of primers targeting the core region were used for both amplification and sequencing of all isolates resulting in a 326 bp fragment. Most HCV isolates were genotype 4 (85%), whereas only a few isolates were recognized as genotype 1 (15%). With the assistance of Genbank database and BLAST, subtyping results showed that most of genotype 4 isolates were 4d whereas most of genotype 1 isolates were 1b. Nucleotide conservation and variation rates of HCV core sequences showed that 4a and 1b have the highest levels of variation. Phylogenetic analysis of sequences by Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Coalescent methods was used to explore the source of HCV transmission by investigating the relationship between Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Middle East and Africa. Coalescent analysis showed that transmissions of HCV from Egypt to Saudi Arabia are estimated to have occurred in three major clusters: 4d was introduced into the country before 1900, the major 4a clade's MRCA was introduced between 1900 and 1920, and the remaining lineages were introduced between 1940 and 1960 from Egypt and Middle Africa. Results showed that no lineages seem to have crossed from Egypt to Saudi Arabia in the last 15 years. Finally, sequencing and characterization of new HCV isolates from Saudi Arabia will enrich the HCV database and help further studies related to treatment and management of the virus.

Molecular characterization and epidemic history of hepatitis C virus using core sequences of isolates from Central Province, Saudi Arabia

PubMed Central

Iles, James C.; El-Wetidy, Mohammad S.; Ali, Hebatallah H.; Al Qattan, Mohammad M.

2017-01-01

The source of HCV transmission in Saudi Arabia is unknown. This study aimed to determine HCV genotypes in a representative sample of chronically infected patients in Saudi Arabia. All HCV isolates were genotyped and subtyped by sequencing of the HCV core region and 54 new HCV isolates were identified. Three sets of primers targeting the core region were used for both amplification and sequencing of all isolates resulting in a 326 bp fragment. Most HCV isolates were genotype 4 (85%), whereas only a few isolates were recognized as genotype 1 (15%). With the assistance of Genbank database and BLAST, subtyping results showed that most of genotype 4 isolates were 4d whereas most of genotype 1 isolates were 1b. Nucleotide conservation and variation rates of HCV core sequences showed that 4a and 1b have the highest levels of variation. Phylogenetic analysis of sequences by Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Coalescent methods was used to explore the source of HCV transmission by investigating the relationship between Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Middle East and Africa. Coalescent analysis showed that transmissions of HCV from Egypt to Saudi Arabia are estimated to have occurred in three major clusters: 4d was introduced into the country before 1900, the major 4a clade’s MRCA was introduced between 1900 and 1920, and the remaining lineages were introduced between 1940 and 1960 from Egypt and Middle Africa. Results showed that no lineages seem to have crossed from Egypt to Saudi Arabia in the last 15 years. Finally, sequencing and characterization of new HCV isolates from Saudi Arabia will enrich the HCV database and help further studies related to treatment and management of the virus. PMID:28863156

A molecular phylogeny of the Australian huntsman spiders (Sparassidae, Deleninae): implications for taxonomy and social behaviour.

PubMed

Agnarsson, Ingi; Rayor, Linda S

2013-12-01

Huntsman spiders (Sparassidae) are a diverse group with a worldwide distribution, yet are poorly known both taxonomically and phylogenetically. They are particularly diverse in Australia where an endemic lineage, Deleninae, has diversified to form nearly 100 species. One unusual species, Delena cancerides, has been believed to be the sole group-living sparassid. Unlike all of the other subsocial and social spiders which are capture-web based or live in silken tunnels, D. cancerides are non-web building spiders that live in large matrilineal colonies of a single adult female and her offspring from multiple clutches of under the bark of dead trees. Here we report the discovery of two additional prolonged subsocial sparassid species, currently in Eodelena but here formally proposed as a synonomy of Delena (new synonoymy), Delena (Eodelena) lapidicola and D. (E.) melanochelis. We briefly describe their social demographics, behavior, and habitat use. In order to understand the evolutionary relationships among these species, and thus origin of sociality and other traits in this group, we also offer the first molecular phylogeny of Deleninae and relatives. We employ model based phylogenetic analyses on two mtDNA and three nuDNA loci using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, including both 'classical' concatenation approach as well as coalescent-based analysis of species trees from gene trees. Our results support the hypothesis that the delenine huntsman spiders are a monophyletic Australian radiation, approximately 23 million year old, and indicate that the current ten genera should be merged to six genera in four clades. Our findings are inconsistent with some relatively recent changes in the taxonomy of Deleninae. The three known group-living delenine species are related and likely represent a single origin of sociality with a single reversal to solitary life-styles. Our results provide strong support for the classical Isopeda, but not for the recent splitting of that taxon into Isopeda, Isopedella, and Holconia. Another moderately supported clade within Deleninae unites three genera (Pediana, Beregama, Typostola) that, while morphologically diverse, all share extraordinary locomotory speed. A fourth clade is comprised of the speciose Neosparassus, containing Zachria. In sum, our study results in a robust phylogeny of Deleninae, casting light on the origin of sociality in the group, and facilitating future work on these unusual spiders. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Bears in a forest of gene trees: phylogenetic inference is complicated by incomplete lineage sorting and gene flow.

PubMed

Kutschera, Verena E; Bidon, Tobias; Hailer, Frank; Rodi, Julia L; Fain, Steven R; Janke, Axel

2014-08-01

Ursine bears are a mammalian subfamily that comprises six morphologically and ecologically distinct extant species. Previous phylogenetic analyses of concatenated nuclear genes could not resolve all relationships among bears, and appeared to conflict with the mitochondrial phylogeny. Evolutionary processes such as incomplete lineage sorting and introgression can cause gene tree discordance and complicate phylogenetic inferences, but are not accounted for in phylogenetic analyses of concatenated data. We generated a high-resolution data set of autosomal introns from several individuals per species and of Y-chromosomal markers. Incorporating intraspecific variability in coalescence-based phylogenetic and gene flow estimation approaches, we traced the genealogical history of individual alleles. Considerable heterogeneity among nuclear loci and discordance between nuclear and mitochondrial phylogenies were found. A species tree with divergence time estimates indicated that ursine bears diversified within less than 2 My. Consistent with a complex branching order within a clade of Asian bear species, we identified unidirectional gene flow from Asian black into sloth bears. Moreover, gene flow detected from brown into American black bears can explain the conflicting placement of the American black bear in mitochondrial and nuclear phylogenies. These results highlight that both incomplete lineage sorting and introgression are prominent evolutionary forces even on time scales up to several million years. Complex evolutionary patterns are not adequately captured by strictly bifurcating models, and can only be fully understood when analyzing multiple independently inherited loci in a coalescence framework. Phylogenetic incongruence among gene trees hence needs to be recognized as a biologically meaningful signal. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages.

PubMed

Drummond, Alexei J; Stadler, Tanja

2016-07-19

Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth-death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the 'morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Dating species divergences using rocks and clocks'. © 2016 The Authors.

Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages

PubMed Central

Drummond, Alexei J.; Stadler, Tanja

2016-01-01

Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth–death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the ‘morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Dating species divergences using rocks and clocks’. PMID:27325827

Fragment virtual screening based on Bayesian categorization for discovering novel VEGFR-2 scaffolds.

PubMed

Zhang, Yanmin; Jiao, Yu; Xiong, Xiao; Liu, Haichun; Ran, Ting; Xu, Jinxing; Lu, Shuai; Xu, Anyang; Pan, Jing; Qiao, Xin; Shi, Zhihao; Lu, Tao; Chen, Yadong

2015-11-01

The discovery of novel scaffolds against a specific target has long been one of the most significant but challengeable goals in discovering lead compounds. A scaffold that binds in important regions of the active pocket is more favorable as a starting point because scaffolds generally possess greater optimization possibilities. However, due to the lack of sufficient chemical space diversity of the databases and the ineffectiveness of the screening methods, it still remains a great challenge to discover novel active scaffolds. Since the strengths and weaknesses of both fragment-based drug design and traditional virtual screening (VS), we proposed a fragment VS concept based on Bayesian categorization for the discovery of novel scaffolds. This work investigated the proposal through an application on VEGFR-2 target. Firstly, scaffold and structural diversity of chemical space for 10 compound databases were explicitly evaluated. Simultaneously, a robust Bayesian classification model was constructed for screening not only compound databases but also their corresponding fragment databases. Although analysis of the scaffold diversity demonstrated a very unevenly distribution of scaffolds over molecules, results showed that our Bayesian model behaved better in screening fragments than molecules. Through a literature retrospective research, several generated fragments with relatively high Bayesian scores indeed exhibit VEGFR-2 biological activity, which strongly proved the effectiveness of fragment VS based on Bayesian categorization models. This investigation of Bayesian-based fragment VS can further emphasize the necessity for enrichment of compound databases employed in lead discovery by amplifying the diversity of databases with novel structures.

Analysing and exemplifying forensic conclusion criteria in terms of Bayesian decision theory.

PubMed

Biedermann, A; Bozza, S; Taroni, F

2018-03-01

There is ongoing discussion in forensic science and the law about the nature of the conclusions reached based on scientific evidence, and on how such conclusions - and conclusion criteria - may be justified by rational argument. Examples, among others, are encountered in fields such as fingermarks (e.g., 'this fingermark comes from Mr. A's left thumb'), handwriting examinations (e.g., 'the questioned signature is that of Mr. A'), kinship analyses (e.g., 'Mr. A is the father of child C') or anthropology (e.g., 'these are human remains'). Considerable developments using formal methods of reasoning based on, for example (Bayesian) decision theory, are available in literature, but currently such reference principles are not explicitly used in operational forensic reporting and ensuing decision-making. Moreover, applied examples, illustrating the principles, are scarce. A potential consequence of this in practical proceedings, and hence a cause of concern, is that underlying ingredients of decision criteria (such as losses quantifying the undesirability of adverse decision consequences), are not properly dealt with. There is merit, thus, in pursuing the study and discussion of practical examples, demonstrating that formal decision-theoretic principles are not merely conceptual considerations. Actually, these principles can be shown to underpin practical decision-making procedures and existing legal decision criteria, though often not explicitly apparent as such. In this paper, we will present such examples and discuss their properties from a Bayesian decision-theoretic perspective. We will argue that these are essential concepts for an informed discourse on decision-making across forensic disciplines and the development of a coherent view on this topic. We will also emphasize that these principles are of normative nature in the sense that they provide standards against which actual judgment and decision-making may be compared. Most importantly, these standards are justified independently of peoples' observable decision behaviour, and of whether or not one endorses these formal methods of reasoning. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identification of lung cancer histology-specific variants applying Bayesian framework variant prioritization approaches within the TRICL and ILCCO consortia

PubMed Central

Brenner, Darren R.; Amos, Christopher I.; Brhane, Yonathan; Timofeeva, Maria N.; Caporaso, Neil; Wang, Yufei; Christiani, David C.; Bickeböller, Heike; Yang, Ping; Albanes, Demetrius; Stevens, Victoria L.; Gapstur, Susan; McKay, James; Boffetta, Paolo; Zaridze, David; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonilia; Lissowska, Jolanta; Rudnai, Peter; Fabianova, Eleonora; Mates, Dana; Bencko, Vladimir; Foretova, Lenka; Janout, Vladimir; Krokan, Hans E.; Skorpen, Frank; Gabrielsen, Maiken E.; Vatten, Lars; Njølstad, Inger; Chen, Chu; Goodman, Gary; Lathrop, Mark; Vooder, Tõnu; Välk, Kristjan; Nelis, Mari; Metspalu, Andres; Broderick, Peter; Eisen, Timothy; Wu, Xifeng; Zhang, Di; Chen, Wei; Spitz, Margaret R.; Wei, Yongyue; Su, Li; Xie, Dong; She, Jun; Matsuo, Keitaro; Matsuda, Fumihiko; Ito, Hidemi; Risch, Angela; Heinrich, Joachim; Rosenberger, Albert; Muley, Thomas; Dienemann, Hendrik; Field, John K.; Raji, Olaide; Chen, Ying; Gosney, John; Liloglou, Triantafillos; Davies, Michael P.A.; Marcus, Michael; McLaughlin, John; Orlow, Irene; Han, Younghun; Li, Yafang; Zong, Xuchen; Johansson, Mattias; Liu, Geoffrey; Tworoger, Shelley S.; Le Marchand, Loic; Henderson, Brian E.; Wilkens, Lynne R.; Dai, Juncheng; Shen, Hongbing; Houlston, Richard S.; Landi, Maria T.; Brennan, Paul; Hung, Rayjean J.

2015-01-01

Large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have likely uncovered all common variants at the GWAS significance level. Additional variants within the suggestive range (0.0001> P > 5×10−8) are, however, still of interest for identifying causal associations. This analysis aimed to apply novel variant prioritization approaches to identify additional lung cancer variants that may not reach the GWAS level. Effects were combined across studies with a total of 33456 controls and 6756 adenocarcinoma (AC; 13 studies), 5061 squamous cell carcinoma (SCC; 12 studies) and 2216 small cell lung cancer cases (9 studies). Based on prior information such as variant physical properties and functional significance, we applied stratified false discovery rates, hierarchical modeling and Bayesian false discovery probabilities for variant prioritization. We conducted a fine mapping analysis as validation of our methods by examining top-ranking novel variants in six independent populations with a total of 3128 cases and 2966 controls. Three novel loci in the suggestive range were identified based on our Bayesian framework analyses: KCNIP4 at 4p15.2 (rs6448050, P = 4.6×10−7) and MTMR2 at 11q21 (rs10501831, P = 3.1×10−6) with SCC, as well as GAREM at 18q12.1 (rs11662168, P = 3.4×10−7) with AC. Use of our prioritization methods validated two of the top three loci associated with SCC (P = 1.05×10−4 for KCNIP4, represented by rs9799795) and AC (P = 2.16×10−4 for GAREM, represented by rs3786309) in the independent fine mapping populations. This study highlights the utility of using prior functional data for sequence variants in prioritization analyses to search for robust signals in the suggestive range. PMID:26363033

Identification of lung cancer histology-specific variants applying Bayesian framework variant prioritization approaches within the TRICL and ILCCO consortia.

PubMed

Brenner, Darren R; Amos, Christopher I; Brhane, Yonathan; Timofeeva, Maria N; Caporaso, Neil; Wang, Yufei; Christiani, David C; Bickeböller, Heike; Yang, Ping; Albanes, Demetrius; Stevens, Victoria L; Gapstur, Susan; McKay, James; Boffetta, Paolo; Zaridze, David; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonilia; Lissowska, Jolanta; Rudnai, Peter; Fabianova, Eleonora; Mates, Dana; Bencko, Vladimir; Foretova, Lenka; Janout, Vladimir; Krokan, Hans E; Skorpen, Frank; Gabrielsen, Maiken E; Vatten, Lars; Njølstad, Inger; Chen, Chu; Goodman, Gary; Lathrop, Mark; Vooder, Tõnu; Välk, Kristjan; Nelis, Mari; Metspalu, Andres; Broderick, Peter; Eisen, Timothy; Wu, Xifeng; Zhang, Di; Chen, Wei; Spitz, Margaret R; Wei, Yongyue; Su, Li; Xie, Dong; She, Jun; Matsuo, Keitaro; Matsuda, Fumihiko; Ito, Hidemi; Risch, Angela; Heinrich, Joachim; Rosenberger, Albert; Muley, Thomas; Dienemann, Hendrik; Field, John K; Raji, Olaide; Chen, Ying; Gosney, John; Liloglou, Triantafillos; Davies, Michael P A; Marcus, Michael; McLaughlin, John; Orlow, Irene; Han, Younghun; Li, Yafang; Zong, Xuchen; Johansson, Mattias; Liu, Geoffrey; Tworoger, Shelley S; Le Marchand, Loic; Henderson, Brian E; Wilkens, Lynne R; Dai, Juncheng; Shen, Hongbing; Houlston, Richard S; Landi, Maria T; Brennan, Paul; Hung, Rayjean J

2015-11-01

Large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have likely uncovered all common variants at the GWAS significance level. Additional variants within the suggestive range (0.0001> P > 5×10(-8)) are, however, still of interest for identifying causal associations. This analysis aimed to apply novel variant prioritization approaches to identify additional lung cancer variants that may not reach the GWAS level. Effects were combined across studies with a total of 33456 controls and 6756 adenocarcinoma (AC; 13 studies), 5061 squamous cell carcinoma (SCC; 12 studies) and 2216 small cell lung cancer cases (9 studies). Based on prior information such as variant physical properties and functional significance, we applied stratified false discovery rates, hierarchical modeling and Bayesian false discovery probabilities for variant prioritization. We conducted a fine mapping analysis as validation of our methods by examining top-ranking novel variants in six independent populations with a total of 3128 cases and 2966 controls. Three novel loci in the suggestive range were identified based on our Bayesian framework analyses: KCNIP4 at 4p15.2 (rs6448050, P = 4.6×10(-7)) and MTMR2 at 11q21 (rs10501831, P = 3.1×10(-6)) with SCC, as well as GAREM at 18q12.1 (rs11662168, P = 3.4×10(-7)) with AC. Use of our prioritization methods validated two of the top three loci associated with SCC (P = 1.05×10(-4) for KCNIP4, represented by rs9799795) and AC (P = 2.16×10(-4) for GAREM, represented by rs3786309) in the independent fine mapping populations. This study highlights the utility of using prior functional data for sequence variants in prioritization analyses to search for robust signals in the suggestive range. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Analysis of Genetic Diversity and Structure Pattern of Indigofera Pseudotinctoria in Karst Habitats of the Wushan Mountains Using AFLP Markers.

PubMed

Fan, Yan; Zhang, Chenglin; Wu, Wendan; He, Wei; Zhang, Li; Ma, Xiao

2017-10-16

Indigofera pseudotinctoria Mats is an agronomically and economically important perennial legume shrub with a high forage yield, protein content and strong adaptability, which is subject to natural habitat fragmentation and serious human disturbance. Until now, our knowledge of the genetic relationships and intraspecific genetic diversity for its wild collections is still poor, especially at small spatial scales. Here amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) technology was employed for analysis of genetic diversity, differentiation, and structure of 364 genotypes of I. pseudotinctoria from 15 natural locations in Wushan Montain, a highly structured mountain with typical karst landforms in Southwest China. We also tested whether eco-climate factors has affected genetic structure by correlating genetic diversity with habitat features. A total of 515 distinctly scoreable bands were generated, and 324 of them were polymorphic. The polymorphic information content (PIC) ranged from 0.694 to 0.890 with an average of 0.789 per primer pair. On species level, Nei's gene diversity ( H j ), the Bayesian genetic diversity index ( H B ) and the Shannon information index ( I ) were 0.2465, 0.2363 and 0.3772, respectively. The high differentiation among all sampling sites was detected ( F ST = 0.2217, G ST = 0.1746, G' ST = 0.2060, θ B = 0.1844), and instead, gene flow among accessions ( N m = 1.1819) was restricted. The population genetic structure resolved by the UPGMA tree, principal coordinate analysis, and Bayesian-based cluster analyses irrefutably grouped all accessions into two distinct clusters, i.e., lowland and highland groups. The population genetic structure resolved by the UPGMA tree, principal coordinate analysis, and Bayesian-based cluster analyses irrefutably grouped all accessions into two distinct clusters, i.e., lowland and highland groups. This structure pattern may indicate joint effects by the neutral evolution and natural selection. Restricted N m was observed across all accessions, and genetic barriers were detected between adjacent accessions due to specifically geographical landform.

Post-Boreotropical dispersals explain the pantropical disjunction in Paederia (Rubiaceae)

PubMed Central

Nie, Ze-Long; Deng, Tao; Meng, Ying; Sun, Hang; Wen, Jun

2013-01-01

Background and Aims Pantropical intercontinental disjunction is a common biogeographical pattern in flowering plants exhibiting a discontinuous distribution primarily in tropical Asia, Africa and the Americas. Only a few plant groups with this pattern have been investigated at the generic level with molecular phylogenetic and biogeographical methods. Paederia (Rubiaceae) is a pantropical genus of 31 species of woody lianas, with the greatest species diversity in continental Asia and Madagascar and only two species from tropical America. The aim of this study was to reconstruct the biogeographical history of Paederia based on phylogenetic analyses to explore how the genus attained its pantropical distribution. Methods Maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference were used for phylogenetic analyses using sequences of five plastid markers (the rbcL gene, rps16 intron, trnT-F region, atpB-rbcL spacer and psbA-trnH spacer). Biogeographical inferences were based on a Bayesian uncorrelated lognormal relaxed molecular clock together with both Bayesian and likelihood ancestral area reconstructions. Key Results The data suggest an early diverged Asian lineage sister to the clade of the remaining species consisting of a predominantly Asian sub-clade and a primarily Malagasy sub-clade. Paederia is inferred to have originated in the Oligocene in tropical continental Asia. It then reached Africa in the early to middle Miocene, most probably via long-distance dispersal across the Indian Ocean. The two Neotropical species are inferred to have derived independently in the late Miocene from ancestors of Asia and East Africa, respectively. Conclusions The results demonstrate the importance of post-Boreotropical long-distance dispersals (across three major oceans) in shaping the global pantropical disjunction in some plants, such as Paederia, with small, winged diaspores adapted to long-distance dispersal by various agents including wind, ocean currents or birds. Overland migration is less likely to explain its palaeotropical disjunction between Asia and Africa. PMID:23478944

Bayesian Networks Improve Causal Environmental Assessments for Evidence-Based Policy.

PubMed

Carriger, John F; Barron, Mace G; Newman, Michael C

2016-12-20

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on valued ecological resources. These aspects are demonstrated through hypothetical problem scenarios that explore some major benefits of using Bayesian networks for reasoning and making inferences in evidence-based policy.

Genetic Variability Under the Seedbank Coalescent.

PubMed

Blath, Jochen; González Casanova, Adrián; Eldon, Bjarki; Kurt, Noemi; Wilke-Berenguer, Maite

2015-07-01

We analyze patterns of genetic variability of populations in the presence of a large seedbank with the help of a new coalescent structure called the seedbank coalescent. This ancestral process appears naturally as a scaling limit of the genealogy of large populations that sustain seedbanks, if the seedbank size and individual dormancy times are of the same order as those of the active population. Mutations appear as Poisson processes on the active lineages and potentially at reduced rate also on the dormant lineages. The presence of "dormant" lineages leads to qualitatively altered times to the most recent common ancestor and nonclassical patterns of genetic diversity. To illustrate this we provide a Wright-Fisher model with a seedbank component and mutation, motivated from recent models of microbial dormancy, whose genealogy can be described by the seedbank coalescent. Based on our coalescent model, we derive recursions for the expectation and variance of the time to most recent common ancestor, number of segregating sites, pairwise differences, and singletons. Estimates (obtained by simulations) of the distributions of commonly employed distance statistics, in the presence and absence of a seedbank, are compared. The effect of a seedbank on the expected site-frequency spectrum is also investigated using simulations. Our results indicate that the presence of a large seedbank considerably alters the distribution of some distance statistics, as well as the site-frequency spectrum. Thus, one should be able to detect from genetic data the presence of a large seedbank in natural populations. Copyright © 2015 by the Genetics Society of America.

Genetic Variability Under the Seedbank Coalescent

PubMed Central

Blath, Jochen; González Casanova, Adrián; Eldon, Bjarki; Kurt, Noemi; Wilke-Berenguer, Maite

2015-01-01

We analyze patterns of genetic variability of populations in the presence of a large seedbank with the help of a new coalescent structure called the seedbank coalescent. This ancestral process appears naturally as a scaling limit of the genealogy of large populations that sustain seedbanks, if the seedbank size and individual dormancy times are of the same order as those of the active population. Mutations appear as Poisson processes on the active lineages and potentially at reduced rate also on the dormant lineages. The presence of “dormant” lineages leads to qualitatively altered times to the most recent common ancestor and nonclassical patterns of genetic diversity. To illustrate this we provide a Wright–Fisher model with a seedbank component and mutation, motivated from recent models of microbial dormancy, whose genealogy can be described by the seedbank coalescent. Based on our coalescent model, we derive recursions for the expectation and variance of the time to most recent common ancestor, number of segregating sites, pairwise differences, and singletons. Estimates (obtained by simulations) of the distributions of commonly employed distance statistics, in the presence and absence of a seedbank, are compared. The effect of a seedbank on the expected site-frequency spectrum is also investigated using simulations. Our results indicate that the presence of a large seedbank considerably alters the distribution of some distance statistics, as well as the site-frequency spectrum. Thus, one should be able to detect from genetic data the presence of a large seedbank in natural populations. PMID:25953769

Complex Population Dynamics and the Coalescent Under Neutrality

PubMed Central

Volz, Erik M.

2012-01-01

Estimates of the coalescent effective population size Ne can be poorly correlated with the true population size. The relationship between Ne and the population size is sensitive to the way in which birth and death rates vary over time. The problem of inference is exacerbated when the mechanisms underlying population dynamics are complex and depend on many parameters. In instances where nonparametric estimators of Ne such as the skyline struggle to reproduce the correct demographic history, model-based estimators that can draw on prior information about population size and growth rates may be more efficient. A coalescent model is developed for a large class of populations such that the demographic history is described by a deterministic nonlinear dynamical system of arbitrary dimension. This class of demographic model differs from those typically used in population genetics. Birth and death rates are not fixed, and no assumptions are made regarding the fraction of the population sampled. Furthermore, the population may be structured in such a way that gene copies reproduce both within and across demes. For this large class of models, it is shown how to derive the rate of coalescence, as well as the likelihood of a gene genealogy with heterochronous sampling and labeled taxa, and how to simulate a coalescent tree conditional on a complex demographic history. This theoretical framework encapsulates many of the models used by ecologists and epidemiologists and should facilitate the integration of population genetics with the study of mathematical population dynamics. PMID:22042576

A New Method for Predicting Patient Survivorship Using Efficient Bayesian Network Learning

PubMed Central

Jiang, Xia; Xue, Diyang; Brufsky, Adam; Khan, Seema; Neapolitan, Richard

2014-01-01

The purpose of this investigation is to develop and evaluate a new Bayesian network (BN)-based patient survivorship prediction method. The central hypothesis is that the method predicts patient survivorship well, while having the capability to handle high-dimensional data and be incorporated into a clinical decision support system (CDSS). We have developed EBMC_Survivorship (EBMC_S), which predicts survivorship for each year individually. EBMC_S is based on the EBMC BN algorithm, which has been shown to handle high-dimensional data. BNs have excellent architecture for decision support systems. In this study, we evaluate EBMC_S using the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) dataset, which concerns breast tumors. A 5-fold cross-validation study indicates that EMBC_S performs better than the Cox proportional hazard model and is comparable to the random survival forest method. We show that EBMC_S provides additional information such as sensitivity analyses, which covariates predict each year, and yearly areas under the ROC curve (AUROCs). We conclude that our investigation supports the central hypothesis. PMID:24558297

A new method for predicting patient survivorship using efficient bayesian network learning.

PubMed

Jiang, Xia; Xue, Diyang; Brufsky, Adam; Khan, Seema; Neapolitan, Richard

2014-01-01

The purpose of this investigation is to develop and evaluate a new Bayesian network (BN)-based patient survivorship prediction method. The central hypothesis is that the method predicts patient survivorship well, while having the capability to handle high-dimensional data and be incorporated into a clinical decision support system (CDSS). We have developed EBMC_Survivorship (EBMC_S), which predicts survivorship for each year individually. EBMC_S is based on the EBMC BN algorithm, which has been shown to handle high-dimensional data. BNs have excellent architecture for decision support systems. In this study, we evaluate EBMC_S using the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) dataset, which concerns breast tumors. A 5-fold cross-validation study indicates that EMBC_S performs better than the Cox proportional hazard model and is comparable to the random survival forest method. We show that EBMC_S provides additional information such as sensitivity analyses, which covariates predict each year, and yearly areas under the ROC curve (AUROCs). We conclude that our investigation supports the central hypothesis.

Bayesian averaging over Decision Tree models for trauma severity scoring.

PubMed

Schetinin, V; Jakaite, L; Krzanowski, W

2018-01-01

Health care practitioners analyse possible risks of misleading decisions and need to estimate and quantify uncertainty in predictions. We have examined the "gold" standard of screening a patient's conditions for predicting survival probability, based on logistic regression modelling, which is used in trauma care for clinical purposes and quality audit. This methodology is based on theoretical assumptions about data and uncertainties. Models induced within such an approach have exposed a number of problems, providing unexplained fluctuation of predicted survival and low accuracy of estimating uncertainty intervals within which predictions are made. Bayesian method, which in theory is capable of providing accurate predictions and uncertainty estimates, has been adopted in our study using Decision Tree models. Our approach has been tested on a large set of patients registered in the US National Trauma Data Bank and has outperformed the standard method in terms of prediction accuracy, thereby providing practitioners with accurate estimates of the predictive posterior densities of interest that are required for making risk-aware decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stochastic Background from Coalescences of Neutron Star-Neutron Star Binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regimbau, T.; de Freitas Pacheco, J. A.

2006-05-01

In this work, numerical simulations were used to investigate the gravitational stochastic background produced by coalescences of double neutron star systems occurring up to z~5. The cosmic coalescence rate was derived from Monte Carlo methods using the probability distributions for massive binaries to form and for a coalescence to occur in a given redshift. A truly continuous background is produced by events located only beyond the critical redshift z*=0.23. Events occurring in the redshift interval 0.027

Using amphiphilic nanostructures to enable long-range ensemble coalescence and surface rejuvenation in dropwise condensation.

PubMed

Anderson, David M; Gupta, Maneesh K; Voevodin, Andrey A; Hunter, Chad N; Putnam, Shawn A; Tsukruk, Vladimir V; Fedorov, Andrei G

2012-04-24

Controlling coalescence events in a heterogeneous ensemble of condensing droplets on a surface is an outstanding fundamental challenge in surface and interfacial sciences, with a broad practical importance in applications ranging from thermal management of high-performance electronic devices to moisture management in high-humidity environments. Nature-inspired superhydrophobic surfaces have been actively explored to enhance heat and mass transfer rates by achieving favorable dynamics during dropwise condensation; however, the effectiveness of such chemically homogeneous surfaces has been limited because condensing droplets tend to form as pinned Wenzel drops rather than mobile Cassie ones. Here, we introduce an amphiphilic nanostructured surface, consisting of a hydrophilic base with hydrophobic tips, which promotes the periodic regeneration of nucleation sites for small droplets, thus rendering the surface self-rejuvenating. This unique amphiphilic nanointerface generates an arrangement of condensed Wenzel droplets that are fluidically linked by a wetted sublayer, promoting previously unobserved coalescence events where numerous droplets simultaneously merge, without direct contact. Such ensemble coalescences rapidly create fresh nucleation sites, thereby shifting the overall population toward smaller droplets and enhancing the rates of mass and heat transfer during condensation.

Electromigration Mechanism of Failure in Flip-Chip Solder Joints Based on Discrete Void Formation.

PubMed

Chang, Yuan-Wei; Cheng, Yin; Helfen, Lukas; Xu, Feng; Tian, Tian; Scheel, Mario; Di Michiel, Marco; Chen, Chih; Tu, King-Ning; Baumbach, Tilo

2017-12-20

In this investigation, SnAgCu and SN100C solders were electromigration (EM) tested, and the 3D laminography imaging technique was employed for in-situ observation of the microstructure evolution during testing. We found that discrete voids nucleate, grow and coalesce along the intermetallic compound/solder interface during EM testing. A systematic analysis yields quantitative information on the number, volume, and growth rate of voids, and the EM parameter of DZ*. We observe that fast intrinsic diffusion in SnAgCu solder causes void growth and coalescence, while in the SN100C solder this coalescence was not significant. To deduce the current density distribution, finite-element models were constructed on the basis of the laminography images. The discrete voids do not change the global current density distribution, but they induce the local current crowding around the voids: this local current crowding enhances the lateral void growth and coalescence. The correlation between the current density and the probability of void formation indicates that a threshold current density exists for the activation of void formation. There is a significant increase in the probability of void formation when the current density exceeds half of the maximum value.

BEASTling: A software tool for linguistic phylogenetics using BEAST 2

PubMed Central

Forkel, Robert; Kaiping, Gereon A.; Atkinson, Quentin D.

2017-01-01

We present a new open source software tool called BEASTling, designed to simplify the preparation of Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of linguistic data using the BEAST 2 platform. BEASTling transforms comparatively short and human-readable configuration files into the XML files used by BEAST to specify analyses. By taking advantage of Creative Commons-licensed data from the Glottolog language catalog, BEASTling allows the user to conveniently filter datasets using names for recognised language families, to impose monophyly constraints so that inferred language trees are backward compatible with Glottolog classifications, or to assign geographic location data to languages for phylogeographic analyses. Support for the emerging cross-linguistic linked data format (CLDF) permits easy incorporation of data published in cross-linguistic linked databases into analyses. BEASTling is intended to make the power of Bayesian analysis more accessible to historical linguists without strong programming backgrounds, in the hopes of encouraging communication and collaboration between those developing computational models of language evolution (who are typically not linguists) and relevant domain experts. PMID:28796784

BEASTling: A software tool for linguistic phylogenetics using BEAST 2.

PubMed

Maurits, Luke; Forkel, Robert; Kaiping, Gereon A; Atkinson, Quentin D

2017-01-01

We present a new open source software tool called BEASTling, designed to simplify the preparation of Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of linguistic data using the BEAST 2 platform. BEASTling transforms comparatively short and human-readable configuration files into the XML files used by BEAST to specify analyses. By taking advantage of Creative Commons-licensed data from the Glottolog language catalog, BEASTling allows the user to conveniently filter datasets using names for recognised language families, to impose monophyly constraints so that inferred language trees are backward compatible with Glottolog classifications, or to assign geographic location data to languages for phylogeographic analyses. Support for the emerging cross-linguistic linked data format (CLDF) permits easy incorporation of data published in cross-linguistic linked databases into analyses. BEASTling is intended to make the power of Bayesian analysis more accessible to historical linguists without strong programming backgrounds, in the hopes of encouraging communication and collaboration between those developing computational models of language evolution (who are typically not linguists) and relevant domain experts.

Phylogenetic relationships of South American lizards of the genus Stenocercus (Squamata: Iguania): A new approach using a general mixture model for gene sequence data.

PubMed

Torres-Carvajal, Omar; Schulte, James A; Cadle, John E

2006-04-01

The South American iguanian lizard genus Stenocercus includes 54 species occurring mostly in the Andes and adjacent lowland areas from northern Venezuela and Colombia to central Argentina at elevations of 0-4000m. Small taxon or character sampling has characterized all phylogenetic analyses of Stenocercus, which has long been recognized as sister taxon to the Tropidurus Group. In this study, we use mtDNA sequence data to perform phylogenetic analyses that include 32 species of Stenocercus and 12 outgroup taxa. Monophyly of this genus is strongly supported by maximum parsimony and Bayesian analyses. Evolutionary relationships within Stenocercus are further analyzed with a Bayesian implementation of a general mixture model, which accommodates variability in the pattern of evolution across sites. These analyses indicate a basal split of Stenocercus into two clades, one of which receives very strong statistical support. In addition, we test previous hypotheses using non-parametric and parametric statistical methods, and provide a phylogenetic classification for Stenocercus.

Experimental and numerical study of the effects of a wall on the coalescence and collapse of bubble pairs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Rui; Zhang, A.-Man; Li, Shuai; Zong, Zhi

2018-04-01

Two-bubble interaction is the most fundamental problem in multi-bubbles dynamics, which is crucial in many practical applications involving air-gun arrays and underwater explosions. In this paper, we experimentally and numerically investigate coalescence, collapse, and rebound of non-buoyant bubble pairs below a rigid wall. Two oscillating vapor bubbles with similar size are generated simultaneously near a rigid wall in axisymmetric configuration using the underwater electric discharge method, and the physical process is captured by a high-speed camera. Numerical simulations are conducted based on potential flow theory coupled with the boundary integral method. Our numerical results show excellent agreement with the experimental data until the splashing of the jet impact sets in. With different ranges of γbw (the dimensionless distance between the rigid wall and the nearest bubble center), the interaction between the coalesced bubble and the rigid wall is divided into three types, i.e., "weak," "intermediate," and "strong." As γbw decreases, the contact point of the two axial jets migrates toward the wall. In "strong interaction" cases, only an upward jet towards the upper rigid wall forms and a secondary jet with a larger width appears at the base of the first jet. The collapsing coalesced bubble in a toroidal form splits into many smaller bubbles due to the instabilities and presents as bubble clouds during the rebounding phase, which may lead to a weakened pressure wave because the focusing energy associated with the collapsing bubble is disintegrated.

Phylogenomic analyses data of the avian phylogenomics project.

PubMed

Jarvis, Erich D; Mirarab, Siavash; Aberer, Andre J; Li, Bo; Houde, Peter; Li, Cai; Ho, Simon Y W; Faircloth, Brant C; Nabholz, Benoit; Howard, Jason T; Suh, Alexander; Weber, Claudia C; da Fonseca, Rute R; Alfaro-Núñez, Alonzo; Narula, Nitish; Liu, Liang; Burt, Dave; Ellegren, Hans; Edwards, Scott V; Stamatakis, Alexandros; Mindell, David P; Cracraft, Joel; Braun, Edward L; Warnow, Tandy; Jun, Wang; Gilbert, M Thomas Pius; Zhang, Guojie

2015-01-01

Determining the evolutionary relationships among the major lineages of extant birds has been one of the biggest challenges in systematic biology. To address this challenge, we assembled or collected the genomes of 48 avian species spanning most orders of birds, including all Neognathae and two of the five Palaeognathae orders. We used these genomes to construct a genome-scale avian phylogenetic tree and perform comparative genomic analyses. Here we present the datasets associated with the phylogenomic analyses, which include sequence alignment files consisting of nucleotides, amino acids, indels, and transposable elements, as well as tree files containing gene trees and species trees. Inferring an accurate phylogeny required generating: 1) A well annotated data set across species based on genome synteny; 2) Alignments with unaligned or incorrectly overaligned sequences filtered out; and 3) Diverse data sets, including genes and their inferred trees, indels, and transposable elements. Our total evidence nucleotide tree (TENT) data set (consisting of exons, introns, and UCEs) gave what we consider our most reliable species tree when using the concatenation-based ExaML algorithm or when using statistical binning with the coalescence-based MP-EST algorithm (which we refer to as MP-EST*). Other data sets, such as the coding sequence of some exons, revealed other properties of genome evolution, namely convergence. The Avian Phylogenomics Project is the largest vertebrate phylogenomics project to date that we are aware of. The sequence, alignment, and tree data are expected to accelerate analyses in phylogenomics and other related areas.

A Bayesian network approach to the database search problem in criminal proceedings

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The ‘database search problem’, that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method’s graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication. PMID:22849390

Invited commentary: Lost in estimation--searching for alternatives to markov chains to fit complex Bayesian models.

PubMed

Molitor, John

2012-03-01

Bayesian methods have seen an increase in popularity in a wide variety of scientific fields, including epidemiology. One of the main reasons for their widespread application is the power of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques generally used to fit these models. As a result, researchers often implicitly associate Bayesian models with MCMC estimation procedures. However, Bayesian models do not always require Markov-chain-based methods for parameter estimation. This is important, as MCMC estimation methods, while generally quite powerful, are complex and computationally expensive and suffer from convergence problems related to the manner in which they generate correlated samples used to estimate probability distributions for parameters of interest. In this issue of the Journal, Cole et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2012;175(5):368-375) present an interesting paper that discusses non-Markov-chain-based approaches to fitting Bayesian models. These methods, though limited, can overcome some of the problems associated with MCMC techniques and promise to provide simpler approaches to fitting Bayesian models. Applied researchers will find these estimation approaches intuitively appealing and will gain a deeper understanding of Bayesian models through their use. However, readers should be aware that other non-Markov-chain-based methods are currently in active development and have been widely published in other fields.

A Single Early Introduction of HIV-1 Subtype B into Central America Accounts for Most Current Cases

PubMed Central

Murillo, Wendy; Veras, Nazle; Prosperi, Mattia; de Rivera, Ivette Lorenzana; Paz-Bailey, Gabriela; Morales-Miranda, Sonia; Juarez, Sandra I.; Yang, Chunfu; DeVos, Joshua; Marín, José Pablo; Mild, Mattias; Albert, Jan

2013-01-01

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) variants show considerable geographical separation across the world, but there is limited information from Central America. We provide the first detailed investigation of the genetic diversity and molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 in six Central American countries. Phylogenetic analysis was performed on 625 HIV-1 pol gene sequences collected between 2002 and 2010 in Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Belize. Published sequences from neighboring countries (n = 57) and the rest of the world (n = 740) were included as controls. Maximum likelihood methods were used to explore phylogenetic relationships. Bayesian coalescence-based methods were used to time HIV-1 introductions. Nearly all (98.9%) Central American sequences were of subtype B. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that 437 (70%) sequences clustered within five significantly supported monophyletic clades formed essentially by Central American sequences. One clade contained 386 (62%) sequences from all six countries; the other four clades were smaller and more country specific, suggesting discrete subepidemics. The existence of one large well-supported Central American clade provides evidence that a single introduction of HIV-1 subtype B in Central America accounts for most current cases. An introduction during the early phase of the HIV-1 pandemic may explain its epidemiological success. Moreover, the smaller clades suggest a subsequent regional spread related to specific transmission networks within each country. PMID:23616665

Hybridization and restricted gene flow between native and introduced stocks of Alpine whitefish (Coregonus sp.) across multiple environments

PubMed Central

Winkler, Kathrin A; Pamminger-Lahnsteiner, Barbara; Wanzenböck, Josef; Weiss, Steven

2011-01-01

Translocations of Baltic whitefish (Coregonus sp.) into Austrian Alpine lakes have created ‘artificial hybrid zones’, threatening the genetic integrity of native lineages. We evaluate the genetic structure of Coregonus in Austrian lakes and characterize hybridization and introgression between native and introduced lineages. Fifteen populations (N= 747) were assessed for allelic variation at eight microsatellite loci and a reduced set (N= 253) for variation across two mtDNA genes (cyt b and NADH-3). Bayesian approaches were used to estimate individual admixture proportions (q-values) and classify genotypes as native, introduced or hybrids. q-value distributions varied among populations highlighting differential hybridization and introgression histories. Many lakes revealed a clear distinction between native and introduced genotypes despite hybridization, whereas some locations revealed hybrid swarms. Genetic structure among lakes was congruent with morphological divergence and novelty raising speculation of multiple taxa, including a population south of the Alps, outside the putative native range of Coregonus. Although statistically congruent with inferences based on nuclear markers, mitochondrial haplotype data was not diagnostic with respect to native and non-native lineages, supporting that the Alpine region was colonized post-glacially by an admixture of mtDNA lineages, which coalesce >1 Ma. Mechanisms promoting or eroding lineage isolation are discussed, as well as a high potential to conserve native Alpine lineages despite the extensive historical use of introduced Baltic stocks. PMID:21199024

The Scirtothrips dorsalis Species Complex: Endemism and Invasion in a Global Pest

PubMed Central

Dickey, Aaron M.; Kumar, Vivek; Hoddle, Mark S.; Funderburk, Joe E.; Morgan, J. Kent; Jara-Cavieres, Antonella; Shatters, Robert G. Jr.; Osborne, Lance S.; McKenzie, Cindy L.

2015-01-01

Invasive arthropods pose unique management challenges in various environments, the first of which is correct identification. This apparently mundane task is particularly difficult if multiple species are morphologically indistinguishable but accurate identification can be determined with DNA barcoding provided an adequate reference set is available. Scirtothrips dorsalis is a highly polyphagous plant pest with a rapidly expanding global distribution and this species, as currently recognized, may be comprised of cryptic species. Here we report the development of a comprehensive DNA barcode library for S. dorsalis and seven nuclear markers via next-generation sequencing for identification use within the complex. We also report the delimitation of nine cryptic species and two morphologically distinguishable species comprising the S. dorsalis species complex using histogram analysis of DNA barcodes, Bayesian phylogenetics, and the multi-species coalescent. One member of the complex, here designated the South Asia 1 cryptic species, is highly invasive, polyphagous, and likely the species implicated in tospovirus transmission. Two other species, South Asia 2, and East Asia 1 are also highly polyphagous and appear to be at an earlier stage of global invasion. The remaining members of the complex are regionally endemic, varying in their pest status and degree of polyphagy. In addition to patterns of invasion and endemism, our results provide a framework both for identifying members of the complex based on their DNA barcode, and for future species delimiting efforts. PMID:25893251

Hiding deep in the trees: discovery of divergent mitochondrial lineages in Malagasy chameleons of the Calumma nasutum group

PubMed Central

Gehring, Philip-Sebastian; Tolley, Krystal A; Eckhardt, Falk Sebastian; Townsend, Ted M; Ziegler, Thomas; Ratsoavina, Fanomezana; Glaw, Frank; Vences, Miguel

2012-01-01

We conducted a comprehensive molecular phylogenetic study for a group of chameleons from Madagascar (Chamaeleonidae: Calumma nasutum group, comprising seven nominal species) to examine the genetic and species diversity in this widespread genus. Based on DNA sequences of the mitochondrial gene (ND2) from 215 specimens, we reconstructed the phylogeny using a Bayesian approach. Our results show deep divergences among several unnamed mitochondrial lineages that are difficult to identify morphologically. We evaluated lineage diversification using a number of statistical phylogenetic methods (general mixed Yule-coalescent model; SpeciesIdentifier; net p-distances) to objectively delimit lineages that we here consider as operational taxonomic units (OTUs), and for which the taxonomic status remains largely unknown. In addition, we compared molecular and morphological differentiation in detail for one particularly diverse clade (the C. boettgeri complex) from northern Madagascar. To assess the species boundaries within this group we used an integrative taxonomic approach, combining evidence from two independent molecular markers (ND2 and CMOS), together with genital and other external morphological characters, and conclude that some of the newly discovered OTUs are separate species (confirmed candidate species, CCS), while others should best be considered as deep conspecific lineages (DCLs). Our analysis supports a total of 33 OTUs, of which seven correspond to described species, suggesting that the taxonomy of the C. nasutum group is in need of revision. PMID:22957155

Chronology of the last glacial maximum in the upper Bear River Basin, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laabs, B.J.C.; Munroe, Jeffrey S.; Rosenbaum, J.G.; Refsnider, K.A.; Mickelson, D.M.; Singer, B.S.; Caffee, M.W.

2007-01-01

The headwaters of the Bear River drainage were occupied during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) by outlet glaciers of the Western Uinta Ice Field, an extensive ice mass (???685 km2) that covered the western slope of the Uinta Mountains. A well-preserved sequence of latero-frontal moraines in the drainage indicates that outlet glaciers advanced beyond the mountain front and coalesced on the piedmont. Glacial deposits in the Bear River drainage provide a unique setting where both 10Be cosmogenic surface-exposure dating of moraine boulders and 14C dating of sediment in Bear Lake downstream of the glaciated area set age limits on the timing of glaciation. Limiting 14C ages of glacial flour in Bear Lake (corrected to calendar years using CALIB 5.0) indicate that ice advance began at 32 ka and culminated at about 24 ka. Based on a Bayesian statistical analysis of cosmogenic surface-exposure ages from two areas on the terminal moraine complex, the Bear River glacier began its final retreat at about 18.7 to 18.1 ka, approximately coincident with the start of deglaciation elsewhere in the central Rocky Mountains and many other alpine glacial localities worldwide. Unlike valleys of the southwestern Uinta Mountains, deglaciation of the Bear River drainage began prior to the hydrologie fall of Lake Bonneville from the Provo shoreline at about 16 ka. ?? 2007 Regents of the University of Colorado.

Divergent evolutionary processes associated with colonization of offshore islands.

PubMed

Martínková, Natália; Barnett, Ross; Cucchi, Thomas; Struchen, Rahel; Pascal, Marine; Pascal, Michel; Fischer, Martin C; Higham, Thomas; Brace, Selina; Ho, Simon Y W; Quéré, Jean-Pierre; O'Higgins, Paul; Excoffier, Laurent; Heckel, Gerald; Hoelzel, A Rus; Dobney, Keith M; Searle, Jeremy B

2013-10-01

Oceanic islands have been a test ground for evolutionary theory, but here, we focus on the possibilities for evolutionary study created by offshore islands. These can be colonized through various means and by a wide range of species, including those with low dispersal capabilities. We use morphology, modern and ancient sequences of cytochrome b (cytb) and microsatellite genotypes to examine colonization history and evolutionary change associated with occupation of the Orkney archipelago by the common vole (Microtus arvalis), a species found in continental Europe but not in Britain. Among possible colonization scenarios, our results are most consistent with human introduction at least 5100 bp (confirmed by radiocarbon dating). We used approximate Bayesian computation of population history to infer the coast of Belgium as the possible source and estimated the evolutionary timescale using a Bayesian coalescent approach. We showed substantial morphological divergence of the island populations, including a size increase presumably driven by selection and reduced microsatellite variation likely reflecting founder events and genetic drift. More surprisingly, our results suggest that a recent and widespread cytb replacement event in the continental source area purged cytb variation there, whereas the ancestral diversity is largely retained in the colonized islands as a genetic 'ark'. The replacement event in the continental M. arvalis was probably triggered by anthropogenic causes (land-use change). Our studies illustrate that small offshore islands can act as field laboratories for studying various evolutionary processes over relatively short timescales, informing about the mainland source area as well as the island. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Coalescence-induced jumping of nanoscale droplets on super-hydrophobic surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Zhi; Keblinski, Pawel; Nanoscale Science; Engineering Center Team

The coalescence-induced jumping of tens of microns size droplets on super-hydrophobic surfaces has been observed in both experiments and simulations. However, whether the coalescence-induced jumping would occur for smaller, particularly nanoscale droplets, is an open question. Using molecular dynamics simulations, we demonstrate that in spite of the large internal viscous dissipation, coalescence of two nanoscale droplets on a super-hydrophobic surface can result in a jumping of the coalesced droplet from the surface with a speed of a few m/s. Similar to the coalescence-induced jumping of microscale droplets, we observe that the bridge between the coalescing nano-droplets expands and impacts the solid surface, which leads to an acceleration of the coalesced droplet by the pressure force from the solid surface. We observe that the jumping velocity decreases with the droplet size and its ratio to the inertial-capillary velocity is a constant of about 0.126, which is close to the minimum value of 0.111 predicted by continuum-level modeling of Enright et al. [R. Enright, N. Miljkovic, J. Sprittles, K. Nolan, R. Mitchell, and E. N. Wang, ACS Nano 8, 10352 (2014)].

Effect of electrolytes on bubble coalescence in columns observed with visualization techniques.

PubMed

Aguilera, María Eugenia; Ojeda, Antonieta; Rondón, Carolina; López De Ramos, Aura

2002-10-01

Bubble coalescence and the effect of electrolytes on this phenomenon have been previously studied. This interfacial phenomenon has attracted attention for reactor design/operation and enhanced oil recovery. Predicting bubble coalescence may help prevent low yields in reactors and predict crude oil recovery. Because of the importance of bubble coalescence, the objectives of this work were to improve the accuracy of measuring the percentage of coalescing bubbles and to observe the interfacial gas-liquid behavior. An experimental setup was designed and constructed. Bubble interactions were monitored with a visualization setup. The percentage of air bubble coalescence was 100% in distilled water, about 50% in 0.1 M sodium chloride (NaCl) aqueous solution, and 0% in 0.145 M NaCl aqueous solution. A reduction of the contact gas-liquid area was observed in distillate water. The volume of the resulting bubble was the sum of the original bubble volumes. Repulsion of bubbles was observed in NaCl solutions exceeding 0.07 M. The percentage of bubble coalescence diminishes as the concentration of NaCl chloride increases. High-speed video recording is an accurate technique to measure the percentage of bubble coalescence, and represents an important advance in gas-liquid interfacial studies.

Optofluidic droplet coalescence on a microfluidic chip

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Jin Ho; Lee, Kyung Heon; Lee, Kang Soo; Cho, Hyunjun; Ha, Byung Hang; Destgeer, Ghulam; Sung, Hyung Jin

2013-11-01

Coalescence is the procedure that two or more droplets fuse during contact to form a larger droplet. Optofluidic droplet coalescence on a microfluidic chip was demonstrated with theoretical and experimental approaches. Droplets were produced in a T-junction geometry and their velocities and sizes were adjusted by flow rate. In order to bring them in a direct contact of coalescence, optical gradient force was used to trap the droplets. A theoretical modeling of the coalescence was derived by combining the optical force and drag force on the droplet. The analytical expression of the optical force on a sphere droplet was employed to estimate the trapping efficiency in the ray optics regime. The drag force acting on the droplet was calculated in terms of the fluid velocity, viscosity and the geometrical parameters of a microfluidic channel. The droplet coalescence was conducted in a microfluidic setup equipped with a 1064 CW laser, focusing optics, a syringe pump, a custom-made stage and a sCMOS camera. The droplets were successfully coalesced using the optical gradient force. The experimental data of coalescence were in good agreement with the prediction. This work was supported by the Creative Research Initiatives program (No.2013-003364) of the National Research Foundation of Korea (MSIP).

BAYESIAN LARGE-SCALE MULTIPLE REGRESSION WITH SUMMARY STATISTICS FROM GENOME-WIDE ASSOCIATION STUDIES1

PubMed Central

Zhu, Xiang; Stephens, Matthew

2017-01-01

Bayesian methods for large-scale multiple regression provide attractive approaches to the analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS). For example, they can estimate heritability of complex traits, allowing for both polygenic and sparse models; and by incorporating external genomic data into the priors, they can increase power and yield new biological insights. However, these methods require access to individual genotypes and phenotypes, which are often not easily available. Here we provide a framework for performing these analyses without individual-level data. Specifically, we introduce a “Regression with Summary Statistics” (RSS) likelihood, which relates the multiple regression coefficients to univariate regression results that are often easily available. The RSS likelihood requires estimates of correlations among covariates (SNPs), which also can be obtained from public databases. We perform Bayesian multiple regression analysis by combining the RSS likelihood with previously proposed prior distributions, sampling posteriors by Markov chain Monte Carlo. In a wide range of simulations RSS performs similarly to analyses using the individual data, both for estimating heritability and detecting associations. We apply RSS to a GWAS of human height that contains 253,288 individuals typed at 1.06 million SNPs, for which analyses of individual-level data are practically impossible. Estimates of heritability (52%) are consistent with, but more precise, than previous results using subsets of these data. We also identify many previously unreported loci that show evidence for association with height in our analyses. Software is available at https://github.com/stephenslab/rss. PMID:29399241

Deep Learning Neural Networks and Bayesian Neural Networks in Data Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chernoded, Andrey; Dudko, Lev; Myagkov, Igor; Volkov, Petr

2017-10-01

Most of the modern analyses in high energy physics use signal-versus-background classification techniques of machine learning methods and neural networks in particular. Deep learning neural network is the most promising modern technique to separate signal and background and now days can be widely and successfully implemented as a part of physical analysis. In this article we compare Deep learning and Bayesian neural networks application as a classifiers in an instance of top quark analysis.

A Bayesian Approach to the Overlap Analysis of Epidemiologically Linked Traits.

PubMed

Asimit, Jennifer L; Panoutsopoulou, Kalliope; Wheeler, Eleanor; Berndt, Sonja I; Cordell, Heather J; Morris, Andrew P; Zeggini, Eleftheria; Barroso, Inês

2015-12-01

Diseases often cooccur in individuals more often than expected by chance, and may be explained by shared underlying genetic etiology. A common approach to genetic overlap analyses is to use summary genome-wide association study data to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with multiple traits at a selected P-value threshold. However, P-values do not account for differences in power, whereas Bayes' factors (BFs) do, and may be approximated using summary statistics. We use simulation studies to compare the power of frequentist and Bayesian approaches with overlap analyses, and to decide on appropriate thresholds for comparison between the two methods. It is empirically illustrated that BFs have the advantage over P-values of a decreasing type I error rate as study size increases for single-disease associations. Consequently, the overlap analysis of traits from different-sized studies encounters issues in fair P-value threshold selection, whereas BFs are adjusted automatically. Extensive simulations show that Bayesian overlap analyses tend to have higher power than those that assess association strength with P-values, particularly in low-power scenarios. Calibration tables between BFs and P-values are provided for a range of sample sizes, as well as an approximation approach for sample sizes that are not in the calibration table. Although P-values are sometimes thought more intuitive, these tables assist in removing the opaqueness of Bayesian thresholds and may also be used in the selection of a BF threshold to meet a certain type I error rate. An application of our methods is used to identify variants associated with both obesity and osteoarthritis. © 2015 The Authors. *Genetic Epidemiology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A comment on priors for Bayesian occupancy models.

PubMed

Northrup, Joseph M; Gerber, Brian D

2018-01-01

Understanding patterns of species occurrence and the processes underlying these patterns is fundamental to the study of ecology. One of the more commonly used approaches to investigate species occurrence patterns is occupancy modeling, which can account for imperfect detection of a species during surveys. In recent years, there has been a proliferation of Bayesian modeling in ecology, which includes fitting Bayesian occupancy models. The Bayesian framework is appealing to ecologists for many reasons, including the ability to incorporate prior information through the specification of prior distributions on parameters. While ecologists almost exclusively intend to choose priors so that they are "uninformative" or "vague", such priors can easily be unintentionally highly informative. Here we report on how the specification of a "vague" normally distributed (i.e., Gaussian) prior on coefficients in Bayesian occupancy models can unintentionally influence parameter estimation. Using both simulated data and empirical examples, we illustrate how this issue likely compromises inference about species-habitat relationships. While the extent to which these informative priors influence inference depends on the data set, researchers fitting Bayesian occupancy models should conduct sensitivity analyses to ensure intended inference, or employ less commonly used priors that are less informative (e.g., logistic or t prior distributions). We provide suggestions for addressing this issue in occupancy studies, and an online tool for exploring this issue under different contexts.

An Integrative Framework for Bayesian Variable Selection with Informative Priors for Identifying Genes and Pathways

PubMed Central

Ander, Bradley P.; Zhang, Xiaoshuai; Xue, Fuzhong; Sharp, Frank R.; Yang, Xiaowei

2013-01-01

The discovery of genetic or genomic markers plays a central role in the development of personalized medicine. A notable challenge exists when dealing with the high dimensionality of the data sets, as thousands of genes or millions of genetic variants are collected on a relatively small number of subjects. Traditional gene-wise selection methods using univariate analyses face difficulty to incorporate correlational, structural, or functional structures amongst the molecular measures. For microarray gene expression data, we first summarize solutions in dealing with ‘large p, small n’ problems, and then propose an integrative Bayesian variable selection (iBVS) framework for simultaneously identifying causal or marker genes and regulatory pathways. A novel partial least squares (PLS) g-prior for iBVS is developed to allow the incorporation of prior knowledge on gene-gene interactions or functional relationships. From the point view of systems biology, iBVS enables user to directly target the joint effects of multiple genes and pathways in a hierarchical modeling diagram to predict disease status or phenotype. The estimated posterior selection probabilities offer probabilitic and biological interpretations. Both simulated data and a set of microarray data in predicting stroke status are used in validating the performance of iBVS in a Probit model with binary outcomes. iBVS offers a general framework for effective discovery of various molecular biomarkers by combining data-based statistics and knowledge-based priors. Guidelines on making posterior inferences, determining Bayesian significance levels, and improving computational efficiencies are also discussed. PMID:23844055

An integrative framework for Bayesian variable selection with informative priors for identifying genes and pathways.

PubMed

Peng, Bin; Zhu, Dianwen; Ander, Bradley P; Zhang, Xiaoshuai; Xue, Fuzhong; Sharp, Frank R; Yang, Xiaowei

2013-01-01

The discovery of genetic or genomic markers plays a central role in the development of personalized medicine. A notable challenge exists when dealing with the high dimensionality of the data sets, as thousands of genes or millions of genetic variants are collected on a relatively small number of subjects. Traditional gene-wise selection methods using univariate analyses face difficulty to incorporate correlational, structural, or functional structures amongst the molecular measures. For microarray gene expression data, we first summarize solutions in dealing with 'large p, small n' problems, and then propose an integrative Bayesian variable selection (iBVS) framework for simultaneously identifying causal or marker genes and regulatory pathways. A novel partial least squares (PLS) g-prior for iBVS is developed to allow the incorporation of prior knowledge on gene-gene interactions or functional relationships. From the point view of systems biology, iBVS enables user to directly target the joint effects of multiple genes and pathways in a hierarchical modeling diagram to predict disease status or phenotype. The estimated posterior selection probabilities offer probabilitic and biological interpretations. Both simulated data and a set of microarray data in predicting stroke status are used in validating the performance of iBVS in a Probit model with binary outcomes. iBVS offers a general framework for effective discovery of various molecular biomarkers by combining data-based statistics and knowledge-based priors. Guidelines on making posterior inferences, determining Bayesian significance levels, and improving computational efficiencies are also discussed.

A Multilocus Molecular Phylogeny of the Parrots (Psittaciformes): Support for a Gondwanan Origin during the Cretaceous

PubMed Central

Schirtzinger, Erin E.; Matsumoto, Tania; Eberhard, Jessica R.; Graves, Gary R.; Sanchez, Juan J.; Capelli, Sara; Müller, Heinrich; Scharpegge, Julia; Chambers, Geoffrey K.; Fleischer, Robert C.

2008-01-01

The question of when modern birds (Neornithes) first diversified has generated much debate among avian systematists. Fossil evidence generally supports a Tertiary diversification, whereas estimates based on molecular dating favor an earlier diversification in the Cretaceous period. In this study, we used an alternate approach, the inference of historical biogeographic patterns, to test the hypothesis that the initial radiation of the Order Psittaciformes (the parrots and cockatoos) originated on the Gondwana supercontinent during the Cretaceous. We utilized broad taxonomic sampling (representatives of 69 of the 82 extant genera and 8 outgroup taxa) and multilocus molecular character sampling (3,941 bp from mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genes cytochrome oxidase I and NADH dehydrogenase 2 and nuclear introns of rhodopsin intron 1, tropomyosin alpha-subunit intron 5, and transforming growth factor ß-2) to generate phylogenetic hypotheses for the Psittaciformes. Analyses of the combined character partitions using maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian criteria produced well-resolved and topologically similar trees in which the New Zealand taxa Strigops and Nestor (Psittacidae) were sister to all other psittaciforms and the cockatoo clade (Cacatuidae) was sister to a clade containing all remaining parrots (Psittacidae). Within this large clade of Psittacidae, some traditionally recognized tribes and subfamilies were monophyletic (e.g., Arini, Psittacini, and Loriinae), whereas several others were polyphyletic (e.g., Cyclopsittacini, Platycercini, Psittaculini, and Psittacinae). Ancestral area reconstructions using our Bayesian phylogenetic hypothesis and current distributions of genera supported the hypothesis of an Australasian origin for the Psittaciformes. Separate analyses of the timing of parrot diversification constructed with both Bayesian relaxed-clock and penalized likelihood approaches showed better agreement between geologic and diversification events in the chronograms based on a Cretaceous dating of the basal split within parrots than the chronograms based on a Tertiary dating of this split, although these data are more equivocal. Taken together, our results support a Cretaceous origin of Psittaciformes in Gondwana after the separation of Africa and the India/Madagascar block with subsequent diversification through both vicariance and dispersal. These well-resolved molecular phylogenies will be of value for comparative studies of behavior, ecology, and life history in parrots. PMID:18653733

Application of parametric equations of motion to study the resonance coalescence in H2(+).

PubMed

Kalita, Dhruba J; Gupta, Ashish K

2012-12-07

Recently, occurrence of coalescence point was reported in H(2)(+) undergoing multiphoton dissociation in strong laser field. We have applied parametric equations of motion and smooth exterior scaling method to study the coalescence phenomenon of H(2)(+). The advantage of this method is that one can easily trace the different states that are changing as the field parameters change. It was reported earlier that in the parameter space, only two bound states coalesce [R. Lefebvre, O. Atabek, M. Sindelka, and N. Moiseyev, Phys. Rev. Lett. 103, 123003 (2009)]. However, it is found that increasing the accuracy of the calculation leads to the coalescence between resonance states originating from the bound and the continuum states. We have also reported many other coalescence points.

Multi-body coalescence in Pickering emulsions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Tong; Wang, Haitao; Jing, Benxin; Liu, Fang; Burns, Peter C.; Na, Chongzheng

2015-01-01

Particle-stabilized Pickering emulsions have shown unusual behaviours such as the formation of non-spherical droplets and the sudden halt of coalescence between individual droplets. Here we report another unusual behaviour of Pickering emulsions—the simultaneous coalescence of multiple droplets in a single event. Using latex particles, silica particles and carbon nanotubes as model stabilizers, we show that multi-body coalescence can occur in both water-in-oil and oil-in-water emulsions. The number of droplets involved in the nth coalscence event equals four times the corresponding number of the tetrahedral sequence in close packing. Furthermore, coalescence is promoted by repulsive latex and silica particles but inhibited by attractive carbon nanotubes. The revelation of multi-body coalescence is expected to help better understand Pickering emulsions in natural systems and improve their designs in engineering applications.

Pickering Particles Prepared from Food Waste

PubMed Central

Gould, Joanne; Garcia-Garcia, Guillermo; Wolf, Bettina

2016-01-01

In this paper, we demonstrate the functionality and functionalisation of waste particles as an emulsifier for oil-in-water (o/w) and water-in-oil (w/o) emulsions. Ground coffee waste was chosen as a candidate waste material due to its naturally high content of lignin, a chemical component imparting emulsifying ability. The waste coffee particles readily stabilised o/w emulsions and following hydrothermal treatment adapted from the bioenergy field they also stabilised w/o emulsions. The hydrothermal treatment relocated the lignin component of the cell walls within the coffee particles onto the particle surface thereby increasing the surface hydrophobicity of the particles as demonstrated by an emulsion assay. Emulsion droplet sizes were comparable to those found in processed foods in the case of hydrophilic waste coffee particles stabilizing o/w emulsions. These emulsions were stable against coalescence for at least 12 weeks, flocculated but stable against coalescence in shear and stable to pasteurisation conditions (10 min at 80 °C). Emulsion droplet size was also insensitive to pH of the aqueous phase during preparation (pH 3–pH 9). Stable against coalescence, the water droplets in w/o emulsions prepared with hydrothermally treated waste coffee particles were considerably larger and microscopic examination showed evidence of arrested coalescence indicative of particle jamming at the surface of the emulsion droplets. Refinement of the hydrothermal treatment and broadening out to other lignin-rich plant or plant based food waste material are promising routes to bring closer the development of commercially relevant lignin based food Pickering particles applicable to emulsion based processed foods ranging from fat continuous spreads and fillings to salad dressings. PMID:28773909

Coalescence preference and droplet size inequality during fluid phase segregation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Sutapa

2018-02-01

Using molecular dynamics simulations and scaling arguments, we investigate the coalescence preference dynamics of liquid droplets in a phase-segregating off-critical, single-component fluid. It is observed that the preferential distance of the product drop from its larger parent, during a coalescence event, gets smaller for large parent size inequality. The relative coalescence position exhibits a power-law dependence on the parent size ratio with an exponent q ≃ 3.1 . This value of q is in strong contrast with earlier reports 2.1 and 5.1 in the literature. The dissimilarity is explained by considering the underlying coalescence mechanisms.

Investigation of immiscible systems and potential applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markworth, A. J.; Oldfield, W.; Duga, J.; Gelles, S. H.

1975-01-01

The droplet coalescence kinetics at 0 g and 1 g were considered for two systems which contained liquid droplets in a host liquid. One of these (Al-In) typified a system containing a liquid phase miscibility gap and the order (oil-water) a mixture of two essentially insoluble liquids. A number of coalescence mechanisms potentially prominent at low g in this system were analyzed and explanations are presented for the observed unusual stability of the emulsion. Ground base experiments were conducted on the coalescence of In droplets in and Al-In alloy during cooling through the miscibility gap at different cooling rates. These were in qualitative agreement with the computer simulation. Potential applications for systems with liquid phase miscibility gaps were explored. Possibilities included superconductors, electrical contact materials, superplastic materials, catalysts, magnetic materials, and others. The role of space processing in their production was also analyzed.

A sequential coalescent algorithm for chromosomal inversions

PubMed Central

Peischl, S; Koch, E; Guerrero, R F; Kirkpatrick, M

2013-01-01

Chromosomal inversions are common in natural populations and are believed to be involved in many important evolutionary phenomena, including speciation, the evolution of sex chromosomes and local adaptation. While recent advances in sequencing and genotyping methods are leading to rapidly increasing amounts of genome-wide sequence data that reveal interesting patterns of genetic variation within inverted regions, efficient simulation methods to study these patterns are largely missing. In this work, we extend the sequential Markovian coalescent, an approximation to the coalescent with recombination, to include the effects of polymorphic inversions on patterns of recombination. Results show that our algorithm is fast, memory-efficient and accurate, making it feasible to simulate large inversions in large populations for the first time. The SMC algorithm enables studies of patterns of genetic variation (for example, linkage disequilibria) and tests of hypotheses (using simulation-based approaches) that were previously intractable. PMID:23632894

A stereological analysis of ductile fracture by microvoid coalescence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steele, J.H., Jr.

A stereological analysis for ductile fracture by microvoid coalescence is presented based upon the model of Widgery and Knott which postulates that microvoids link with a propagating crack if they lie within a certain interaction distance of its plane. A 3- dimensional analytical expression for dimple density and shape is developed from this model using projected image relationships for a thin slab. Void nucleation and growth are incorporated into the analysis using numerical integration of the Rice-Tracey growth equation over the appropriate strain range. An evaluation of the stereological approach is given using tensile data from a spheroidized 1045 steelmore » to predict the effect of hydrostatic pressure upon the dimple density. The analysis, which is consistent with observed correlations between dimple density and second phase particle density, is shown to provide an estimate of dimple size and microroughness parameter used in local stain models for microvoid coalescence. 24 refs., 10 figs.« less

Design of a Bayesian adaptive phase 2 proof-of-concept trial for BAN2401, a putative disease-modifying monoclonal antibody for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Satlin, Andrew; Wang, Jinping; Logovinsky, Veronika; Berry, Scott; Swanson, Chad; Dhadda, Shobha; Berry, Donald A

2016-01-01

Recent failures in phase 3 clinical trials in Alzheimer's disease (AD) suggest that novel approaches to drug development are urgently needed. Phase 3 risk can be mitigated by ensuring that clinical efficacy is established before initiating confirmatory trials, but traditional phase 2 trials in AD can be lengthy and costly. We designed a Bayesian adaptive phase 2, proof-of-concept trial with a clinical endpoint to evaluate BAN2401, a monoclonal antibody targeting amyloid protofibrils. The study design used dose response and longitudinal modeling. Simulations were used to refine study design features to achieve optimal operating characteristics. The study design includes five active treatment arms plus placebo, a clinical outcome, 12-month primary endpoint, and a maximum sample size of 800. The average overall probability of success is ≥80% when at least one dose shows a treatment effect that would be considered clinically meaningful. Using frequent interim analyses, the randomization ratios are adapted based on the clinical endpoint, and the trial can be stopped for success or futility before full enrollment. Bayesian statistics can enhance the efficiency of analyzing the study data. The adaptive randomization generates more data on doses that appear to be more efficacious, which can improve dose selection for phase 3. The interim analyses permit stopping as soon as a predefined signal is detected, which can accelerate decision making. Both features can reduce the size and duration of the trial. This study design can mitigate some of the risks associated with advancing to phase 3 in the absence of data demonstrating clinical efficacy. Limitations to the approach are discussed.

Isotopic reconstruction of the weaning process in the archaeological population of Canímar Abajo, Cuba: A Bayesian probability mixing model approach

PubMed Central

Roksandic, Mirjana; Nikitović, Dejana; Rodríguez Suárez, Roberto; Smith, David; Kanik, Nadine; García Jordá, Dailys; Buhay, William M.

2017-01-01

The general lack of well-preserved juvenile skeletal remains from Caribbean archaeological sites has, in the past, prevented evaluations of juvenile dietary changes. Canímar Abajo (Cuba), with a large number of well-preserved juvenile and adult skeletal remains, provided a unique opportunity to fully assess juvenile paleodiets from an ancient Caribbean population. Ages for the start and the end of weaning and possible food sources used for weaning were inferred by combining the results of two Bayesian probability models that help to reduce some of the uncertainties inherent to bone collagen isotope based paleodiet reconstructions. Bone collagen (31 juveniles, 18 adult females) was used for carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses. The isotope results were assessed using two Bayesian probability models: Weaning Ages Reconstruction with Nitrogen isotopes and Stable Isotope Analyses in R. Breast milk seems to have been the most important protein source until two years of age with some supplementary food such as tropical fruits and root cultigens likely introduced earlier. After two, juvenile diets were likely continuously supplemented by starch rich foods such as root cultigens and legumes. By the age of three, the model results suggest that the weaning process was completed. Additional indications suggest that animal marine/riverine protein and maize, while part of the Canímar Abajo female diets, were likely not used to supplement juvenile diets. The combined use of both models here provided a more complete assessment of the weaning process for an ancient Caribbean population, indicating not only the start and end ages of weaning but also the relative importance of different food sources for different age juveniles. PMID:28459816

Isotopic reconstruction of the weaning process in the archaeological population of Canímar Abajo, Cuba: A Bayesian probability mixing model approach.

PubMed

Chinique de Armas, Yadira; Roksandic, Mirjana; Nikitović, Dejana; Rodríguez Suárez, Roberto; Smith, David; Kanik, Nadine; García Jordá, Dailys; Buhay, William M

2017-01-01

The general lack of well-preserved juvenile skeletal remains from Caribbean archaeological sites has, in the past, prevented evaluations of juvenile dietary changes. Canímar Abajo (Cuba), with a large number of well-preserved juvenile and adult skeletal remains, provided a unique opportunity to fully assess juvenile paleodiets from an ancient Caribbean population. Ages for the start and the end of weaning and possible food sources used for weaning were inferred by combining the results of two Bayesian probability models that help to reduce some of the uncertainties inherent to bone collagen isotope based paleodiet reconstructions. Bone collagen (31 juveniles, 18 adult females) was used for carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses. The isotope results were assessed using two Bayesian probability models: Weaning Ages Reconstruction with Nitrogen isotopes and Stable Isotope Analyses in R. Breast milk seems to have been the most important protein source until two years of age with some supplementary food such as tropical fruits and root cultigens likely introduced earlier. After two, juvenile diets were likely continuously supplemented by starch rich foods such as root cultigens and legumes. By the age of three, the model results suggest that the weaning process was completed. Additional indications suggest that animal marine/riverine protein and maize, while part of the Canímar Abajo female diets, were likely not used to supplement juvenile diets. The combined use of both models here provided a more complete assessment of the weaning process for an ancient Caribbean population, indicating not only the start and end ages of weaning but also the relative importance of different food sources for different age juveniles.

Integrative Taxonomy and Species Delimitation in Harvestmen: A Revision of the Western North American Genus Sclerobunus (Opiliones: Laniatores: Travunioidea)

PubMed Central

Derkarabetian, Shahan; Hedin, Marshal

2014-01-01

Alpha taxonomy, and specifically the delimitation of species, is becoming increasingly objective and integrative. The use of coalescent-based methods applied to genetic data is providing new tools for the discovery and delimitation of species. Here, we use an integrative approach via a combination of discovery-based multivariate morphological analyses to detect potential new species. These potential species are then used as a priori species in hypothesis-driven validation analyses with genetic data. This research focuses on the harvestmen genus Sclerobunus found throughout the mountainous regions of western North America. Based on our analyses, we conduct a revision of Sclerobunus resulting in synonymy of Cyptobunus with Sclerobunus including transfer of S. cavicolens comb. nov. and elevation of both subspecies of S. ungulatus: S. ungulatus comb. nov. and S. madhousensis comb. nov., stat. nov. The three subspecies of S. robustus are elevated, S. robustus, S. glorietus stat. nov., and S. idahoensis stat. nov. Additionally, five new species of Sclerobunus are described from New Mexico and Colorado, including S. jemez sp. nov., S. klomax sp. nov., S. skywalkeri sp. nov., S. speoventus sp. nov., and S. steinmanni sp. nov. Several of the newly described species are single-cave endemics, and our findings suggest that further exploration of western North American cave habitats will likely yield additional new species. PMID:25144370

A molecular phylogenetic appraisal of the acanthostomines Acanthostomum and Timoniella and their position within Cryptogonimidae (Trematoda: Opisthorchioidea)

PubMed Central

Vidal-Martínez, Victor M.

2017-01-01

The phylogenetic position of three taxa from two trematode genera, belonging to the subfamily Acanthostominae (Opisthorchioidea: Cryptogonimidae), were analysed using partial 28S ribosomal DNA (Domains 1–2) and internal transcribed spacers (ITS1–5.8S–ITS2). Bayesian inference and Maximum likelihood analyses of combined 28S rDNA and ITS1 + 5.8S + ITS2 sequences indicated the monophyly of the genus Acanthostomum (A. cf. americanum and A. burminis) and paraphyly of the Acanthostominae. These phylogenetic relationships were consistent in analyses of 28S alone and concatenated 28S + ITS1 + 5.8S + ITS2 sequences analyses. Based on molecular phylogenetic analyses, the subfamily Acanthostominae is therefore a paraphyletic taxon, in contrast with previous classifications based on morphological data. Phylogenetic patterns of host specificity inferred from adult stages of other cryptogonimid taxa are also well supported. However, analyses using additional genera and species are necessary to support the phylogenetic inferences from this study. Our molecular phylogenetic reconstruction linked two larval stages of A. cf. americanum cercariae and metacercariae. Here, we present the evolutionary and ecological implications of parasitic infections in freshwater and brackish environments. PMID:29250471

A molecular phylogenetic appraisal of the acanthostomines Acanthostomum and Timoniella and their position within Cryptogonimidae (Trematoda: Opisthorchioidea).

PubMed

Martínez-Aquino, Andrés; Vidal-Martínez, Victor M; Aguirre-Macedo, M Leopoldina

2017-01-01

The phylogenetic position of three taxa from two trematode genera, belonging to the subfamily Acanthostominae (Opisthorchioidea: Cryptogonimidae), were analysed using partial 28S ribosomal DNA (Domains 1-2) and internal transcribed spacers (ITS1-5.8S-ITS2). Bayesian inference and Maximum likelihood analyses of combined 28S rDNA and ITS1 + 5.8S + ITS2 sequences indicated the monophyly of the genus Acanthostomum ( A. cf. americanum and A. burminis ) and paraphyly of the Acanthostominae . These phylogenetic relationships were consistent in analyses of 28S alone and concatenated 28S + ITS1 + 5.8S + ITS2 sequences analyses. Based on molecular phylogenetic analyses, the subfamily Acanthostominae is therefore a paraphyletic taxon, in contrast with previous classifications based on morphological data. Phylogenetic patterns of host specificity inferred from adult stages of other cryptogonimid taxa are also well supported. However, analyses using additional genera and species are necessary to support the phylogenetic inferences from this study. Our molecular phylogenetic reconstruction linked two larval stages of A. cf. americanum cercariae and metacercariae. Here, we present the evolutionary and ecological implications of parasitic infections in freshwater and brackish environments.

Asymptotic Distributions of Coalescence Times and Ancestral Lineage Numbers for Populations with Temporally Varying Size

PubMed Central

Chen, Hua; Chen, Kun

2013-01-01

The distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers play an essential role in coalescent modeling and ancestral inference. Both exact distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers are expressed as the sum of alternating series, and the terms in the series become numerically intractable for large samples. More computationally attractive are their asymptotic distributions, which were derived in Griffiths (1984) for populations with constant size. In this article, we derive the asymptotic distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers for populations with temporally varying size. For a sample of size n, denote by Tm the mth coalescent time, when m + 1 lineages coalesce into m lineages, and An(t) the number of ancestral lineages at time t back from the current generation. Similar to the results in Griffiths (1984), the number of ancestral lineages, An(t), and the coalescence times, Tm, are asymptotically normal, with the mean and variance of these distributions depending on the population size function, N(t). At the very early stage of the coalescent, when t → 0, the number of coalesced lineages n − An(t) follows a Poisson distribution, and as m → n, n(n−1)Tm/2N(0) follows a gamma distribution. We demonstrate the accuracy of the asymptotic approximations by comparing to both exact distributions and coalescent simulations. Several applications of the theoretical results are also shown: deriving statistics related to the properties of gene genealogies, such as the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) and the total branch length (TBL) of the genealogy, and deriving the allele frequency spectrum for large genealogies. With the advent of genomic-level sequencing data for large samples, the asymptotic distributions are expected to have wide applications in theoretical and methodological development for population genetic inference. PMID:23666939

Asymptotic distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers for populations with temporally varying size.

PubMed

Chen, Hua; Chen, Kun

2013-07-01

The distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers play an essential role in coalescent modeling and ancestral inference. Both exact distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers are expressed as the sum of alternating series, and the terms in the series become numerically intractable for large samples. More computationally attractive are their asymptotic distributions, which were derived in Griffiths (1984) for populations with constant size. In this article, we derive the asymptotic distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers for populations with temporally varying size. For a sample of size n, denote by Tm the mth coalescent time, when m + 1 lineages coalesce into m lineages, and An(t) the number of ancestral lineages at time t back from the current generation. Similar to the results in Griffiths (1984), the number of ancestral lineages, An(t), and the coalescence times, Tm, are asymptotically normal, with the mean and variance of these distributions depending on the population size function, N(t). At the very early stage of the coalescent, when t → 0, the number of coalesced lineages n - An(t) follows a Poisson distribution, and as m → n, $$n\\left(n-1\\right){T}_{m}/2N\\left(0\\right)$$ follows a gamma distribution. We demonstrate the accuracy of the asymptotic approximations by comparing to both exact distributions and coalescent simulations. Several applications of the theoretical results are also shown: deriving statistics related to the properties of gene genealogies, such as the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) and the total branch length (TBL) of the genealogy, and deriving the allele frequency spectrum for large genealogies. With the advent of genomic-level sequencing data for large samples, the asymptotic distributions are expected to have wide applications in theoretical and methodological development for population genetic inference.

Model based inference from microvascular measurements: Combining experimental measurements and model predictions using a Bayesian probabilistic approach

PubMed Central

Rasmussen, Peter M.; Smith, Amy F.; Sakadžić, Sava; Boas, David A.; Pries, Axel R.; Secomb, Timothy W.; Østergaard, Leif

2017-01-01

Objective In vivo imaging of the microcirculation and network-oriented modeling have emerged as powerful means of studying microvascular function and understanding its physiological significance. Network-oriented modeling may provide the means of summarizing vast amounts of data produced by high-throughput imaging techniques in terms of key, physiological indices. To estimate such indices with sufficient certainty, however, network-oriented analysis must be robust to the inevitable presence of uncertainty due to measurement errors as well as model errors. Methods We propose the Bayesian probabilistic data analysis framework as a means of integrating experimental measurements and network model simulations into a combined and statistically coherent analysis. The framework naturally handles noisy measurements and provides posterior distributions of model parameters as well as physiological indices associated with uncertainty. Results We applied the analysis framework to experimental data from three rat mesentery networks and one mouse brain cortex network. We inferred distributions for more than five hundred unknown pressure and hematocrit boundary conditions. Model predictions were consistent with previous analyses, and remained robust when measurements were omitted from model calibration. Conclusion Our Bayesian probabilistic approach may be suitable for optimizing data acquisition and for analyzing and reporting large datasets acquired as part of microvascular imaging studies. PMID:27987383

Forensic Signature Detection of Yersinia Pestis Culturing Practices Across Institutions Using a Bayesian Network

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo M.; Corley, Courtney D.; McCue, Lee Ann

The field of bioforensics is focused on the analysis of evidence from a biocrime. Existing laboratory analyses can identify the specific strain of an organism in the evidence, as well signatures of the specific culture batch of organisms, such as low-frequency contaminants or indicators of growth and processing methods. To link these disparate types of physical data to potential suspects, investigators may need to identify institutions or individuals whose access to strains and culturing practices match those identified from the evidence. In this work we present a Bayesian statistical network to fuse different types of analytical measurements that predict themore » production environment of a Yersinia pestis sample under investigation with automated test processing of scientific publications to identify institutions with a history of growing Y. pestis under similar conditions. Furthermore, the textual and experimental signatures were evaluated recursively to determine the overall sensitivity of the network across all levels of false positives. We illustrate that institutions associated with several specific culturing practices can be accurately selected based on the experimental signature from only a few analytical measurements. These findings demonstrate that similar Bayesian networks can be generated generically for many organisms of interest and their deployment is not prohibitive due to either computational or experimental factors.« less

Making Sense of a Negative Clinical Trial Result: A Bayesian Analysis of a Clinical Trial of Lorazepam and Diazepam for Pediatric Status Epilepticus.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Daniel B; Chamberlain, James M

2017-01-01

We demonstrate the application of a Bayesian approach to a recent negative clinical trial result. A Bayesian analysis of such a trial can provide a more useful interpretation of results and can incorporate previous evidence. This was a secondary analysis of the efficacy and safety results of the Pediatric Seizure Study, a randomized clinical trial of lorazepam versus diazepam for pediatric status epilepticus. We included the published results from the only prospective pediatric study of status in a Bayesian hierarchic model, and we performed sensitivity analyses on the amount of pooling between studies. We evaluated 3 summary analyses for the results: superiority, noninferiority (margin <-10%), and practical equivalence (within ±10%). Consistent with the original study's classic analysis of study results, we did not demonstrate superiority of lorazepam over diazepam. There is a 95% probability that the true efficacy of lorazepam is in the range of 66% to 80%. For both the efficacy and safety outcomes, there was greater than 95% probability that lorazepam is noninferior to diazepam, and there was greater than 90% probability that the 2 medications are practically equivalent. The results were largely driven by the current study because of the sample sizes of our study (n=273) and the previous pediatric study (n=61). Because Bayesian analysis estimates the probability of one or more hypotheses, such an approach can provide more useful information about the meaning of the results of a negative trial outcome. In the case of pediatric status epilepticus, it is highly likely that lorazepam is noninferior and practically equivalent to diazepam. Copyright © 2016 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects for patient-centered outcomes research.

PubMed

Henderson, Nicholas C; Louis, Thomas A; Wang, Chenguang; Varadhan, Ravi

2016-01-01

Evaluation of heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE) is an essential aspect of personalized medicine and patient-centered outcomes research. Our goal in this article is to promote the use of Bayesian methods for subgroup analysis and to lower the barriers to their implementation by describing the ways in which the companion software beanz can facilitate these types of analyses. To advance this goal, we describe several key Bayesian models for investigating HTE and outline the ways in which they are well-suited to address many of the commonly cited challenges in the study of HTE. Topics highlighted include shrinkage estimation, model choice, sensitivity analysis, and posterior predictive checking. A case study is presented in which we demonstrate the use of the methods discussed.

Bayesian analysis of non-homogeneous Markov chains: application to mental health data.

PubMed

Sung, Minje; Soyer, Refik; Nhan, Nguyen

2007-07-10

In this paper we present a formal treatment of non-homogeneous Markov chains by introducing a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Our work is motivated by the analysis of correlated categorical data which arise in assessment of psychiatric treatment programs. In our development, we introduce a Markovian structure to describe the non-homogeneity of transition patterns. In doing so, we introduce a logistic regression set-up for Markov chains and incorporate covariates in our model. We present a Bayesian model using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and develop inference procedures to address issues encountered in the analyses of data from psychiatric treatment programs. Our model and inference procedures are implemented to some real data from a psychiatric treatment study. Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Statistical inference on genetic data reveals the complex demographic history of human populations in central Asia.

PubMed

Palstra, Friso P; Heyer, Evelyne; Austerlitz, Frédéric

2015-06-01

The demographic history of modern humans constitutes a combination of expansions, colonizations, contractions, and remigrations. The advent of large scale genetic data combined with statistically refined methods facilitates inference of this complex history. Here we study the demographic history of two genetically admixed ethnic groups in Central Asia, an area characterized by high levels of genetic diversity and a history of recurrent immigration. Using Approximate Bayesian Computation, we infer that the timing of admixture markedly differs between the two groups. Admixture in the traditionally agricultural Tajiks could be dated back to the onset of the Neolithic transition in the region, whereas admixture in Kyrgyz is more recent, and may have involved the westward movement of Turkic peoples. These results are confirmed by a coalescent method that fits an isolation-with-migration model to the genetic data, with both Central Asian groups having received gene flow from the extremities of Eurasia. Interestingly, our analyses also uncover signatures of gene flow from Eastern to Western Eurasia during Paleolithic times. In conclusion, the high genetic diversity currently observed in these two Central Asian peoples most likely reflects the effects of recurrent immigration that likely started before historical times. Conversely, conquests during historical times may have had a relatively limited genetic impact. These results emphasize the need for a better understanding of the genetic consequences of transmission of culture and technological innovations, as well as those of invasions and conquests. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The genomic landscape at a late stage of stickleback speciation: High genomic divergence interspersed by small localized regions of introgression.

PubMed

Ravinet, Mark; Yoshida, Kohta; Shigenobu, Shuji; Toyoda, Atsushi; Fujiyama, Asao; Kitano, Jun

2018-05-01

Speciation is a continuous process and analysis of species pairs at different stages of divergence provides insight into how it unfolds. Previous genomic studies on young species pairs have revealed peaks of divergence and heterogeneous genomic differentiation. Yet less known is how localised peaks of differentiation progress to genome-wide divergence during the later stages of speciation in the presence of persistent gene flow. Spanning the speciation continuum, stickleback species pairs are ideal for investigating how genomic divergence builds up during speciation. However, attention has largely focused on young postglacial species pairs, with little knowledge of the genomic signatures of divergence and introgression in older stickleback systems. The Japanese stickleback species pair, composed of the Pacific Ocean three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) and the Japan Sea stickleback (G. nipponicus), which co-occur in the Japanese islands, is at a late stage of speciation. Divergence likely started well before the end of the last glacial period and crosses between Japan Sea females and Pacific Ocean males result in hybrid male sterility. Here we use coalescent analyses and Approximate Bayesian Computation to show that the two species split approximately 0.68-1 million years ago but that they have continued to exchange genes at a low rate throughout divergence. Population genomic data revealed that, despite gene flow, a high level of genomic differentiation is maintained across the majority of the genome. However, we identified multiple, small regions of introgression, occurring mainly in areas of low recombination rate. Our results demonstrate that a high level of genome-wide divergence can establish in the face of persistent introgression and that gene flow can be localized to small genomic regions at the later stages of speciation with gene flow.

Bayes in biological anthropology.

PubMed

Konigsberg, Lyle W; Frankenberg, Susan R

2013-12-01

In this article, we both contend and illustrate that biological anthropologists, particularly in the Americas, often think like Bayesians but act like frequentists when it comes to analyzing a wide variety of data. In other words, while our research goals and perspectives are rooted in probabilistic thinking and rest on prior knowledge, we often proceed to use statistical hypothesis tests and confidence interval methods unrelated (or tenuously related) to the research questions of interest. We advocate for applying Bayesian analyses to a number of different bioanthropological questions, especially since many of the programming and computational challenges to doing so have been overcome in the past two decades. To facilitate such applications, this article explains Bayesian principles and concepts, and provides concrete examples of Bayesian computer simulations and statistics that address questions relevant to biological anthropology, focusing particularly on bioarchaeology and forensic anthropology. It also simultaneously reviews the use of Bayesian methods and inference within the discipline to date. This article is intended to act as primer to Bayesian methods and inference in biological anthropology, explaining the relationships of various methods to likelihoods or probabilities and to classical statistical models. Our contention is not that traditional frequentist statistics should be rejected outright, but that there are many situations where biological anthropology is better served by taking a Bayesian approach. To this end it is hoped that the examples provided in this article will assist researchers in choosing from among the broad array of statistical methods currently available. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Tmax Determined Using a Bayesian Estimation Deconvolution Algorithm Applied to Bolus Tracking Perfusion Imaging: A Digital Phantom Validation Study.

PubMed

Uwano, Ikuko; Sasaki, Makoto; Kudo, Kohsuke; Boutelier, Timothé; Kameda, Hiroyuki; Mori, Futoshi; Yamashita, Fumio

2017-01-10

The Bayesian estimation algorithm improves the precision of bolus tracking perfusion imaging. However, this algorithm cannot directly calculate Tmax, the time scale widely used to identify ischemic penumbra, because Tmax is a non-physiological, artificial index that reflects the tracer arrival delay (TD) and other parameters. We calculated Tmax from the TD and mean transit time (MTT) obtained by the Bayesian algorithm and determined its accuracy in comparison with Tmax obtained by singular value decomposition (SVD) algorithms. The TD and MTT maps were generated by the Bayesian algorithm applied to digital phantoms with time-concentration curves that reflected a range of values for various perfusion metrics using a global arterial input function. Tmax was calculated from the TD and MTT using constants obtained by a linear least-squares fit to Tmax obtained from the two SVD algorithms that showed the best benchmarks in a previous study. Correlations between the Tmax values obtained by the Bayesian and SVD methods were examined. The Bayesian algorithm yielded accurate TD and MTT values relative to the true values of the digital phantom. Tmax calculated from the TD and MTT values with the least-squares fit constants showed excellent correlation (Pearson's correlation coefficient = 0.99) and agreement (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.99) with Tmax obtained from SVD algorithms. Quantitative analyses of Tmax values calculated from Bayesian-estimation algorithm-derived TD and MTT from a digital phantom correlated and agreed well with Tmax values determined using SVD algorithms.

Generalizability of Evidence-Based Assessment Recommendations for Pediatric Bipolar Disorder

PubMed Central

Jenkins, Melissa M.; Youngstrom, Eric A.; Youngstrom, Jennifer Kogos; Feeny, Norah C.; Findling, Robert L.

2013-01-01

Bipolar disorder is frequently clinically diagnosed in youths who do not actually satisfy DSM-IV criteria, yet cases that would satisfy full DSM-IV criteria are often undetected clinically. Evidence-based assessment methods that incorporate Bayesian reasoning have demonstrated improved diagnostic accuracy, and consistency; however, their clinical utility is largely unexplored. The present study examines the effectiveness of promising evidence-based decision-making compared to the clinical gold standard. Participants were 562 youth, ages 5-17 and predominantly African American, drawn from a community mental health clinic. Research diagnoses combined semi-structured interview with youths’ psychiatric, developmental, and family mental health histories. Independent Bayesian estimates relied on published risk estimates from other samples discriminated bipolar diagnoses, Area Under Curve=.75, p<.00005. The Bayes and confidence ratings correlated rs =.30. Agreement about an evidence-based assessment intervention “threshold model” (wait/assess/treat) had K=.24, p<.05. No potential moderators of agreement between the Bayesian estimates and confidence ratings, including type of bipolar illness, were significant. Bayesian risk estimates were highly correlated with logistic regression estimates using optimal sample weights, r=.81, p<.0005. Clinical and Bayesian approaches agree in terms of overall concordance and deciding next clinical action, even when Bayesian predictions are based on published estimates from clinically and demographically different samples. Evidence-based assessment methods may be useful in settings that cannot routinely employ gold standard assessments, and they may help decrease rates of overdiagnosis while promoting earlier identification of true cases. PMID:22004538

Coalescent histories for caterpillar-like families.

PubMed

Rosenberg, Noah A

2013-01-01

A coalescent history is an assignment of branches of a gene tree to branches of a species tree on which coalescences in the gene tree occur. The number of coalescent histories for a pair consisting of a labeled gene tree topology and a labeled species tree topology is important in gene tree probability computations, and more generally, in studying evolutionary possibilities for gene trees on species trees. Defining the Tr-caterpillar-like family as a sequence of n-taxon trees constructed by replacing the r-taxon subtree of n-taxon caterpillars by a specific r-taxon labeled topology Tr, we examine the number of coalescent histories for caterpillar-like families with matching gene tree and species tree labeled topologies. For each Tr with size r≤8, we compute the number of coalescent histories for n-taxon trees in the Tr-caterpillar-like family. Next, as n→∞, we find that the limiting ratio of the numbers of coalescent histories for the Tr family and caterpillars themselves is correlated with the number of labeled histories for Tr. The results support a view that large numbers of coalescent histories occur when a tree has both a relatively balanced subtree and a high tree depth, contributing to deeper understanding of the combinatorics of gene trees and species trees.

Daniel Goodman’s empirical approach to Bayesian statistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerrodette, Tim; Ward, Eric; Taylor, Rebecca L.; Schwarz, Lisa K.; Eguchi, Tomoharu; Wade, Paul; Himes Boor, Gina

2016-01-01

Bayesian statistics, in contrast to classical statistics, uses probability to represent uncertainty about the state of knowledge. Bayesian statistics has often been associated with the idea that knowledge is subjective and that a probability distribution represents a personal degree of belief. Dr. Daniel Goodman considered this viewpoint problematic for issues of public policy. He sought to ground his Bayesian approach in data, and advocated the construction of a prior as an empirical histogram of “similar” cases. In this way, the posterior distribution that results from a Bayesian analysis combined comparable previous data with case-specific current data, using Bayes’ formula. Goodman championed such a data-based approach, but he acknowledged that it was difficult in practice. If based on a true representation of our knowledge and uncertainty, Goodman argued that risk assessment and decision-making could be an exact science, despite the uncertainties. In his view, Bayesian statistics is a critical component of this science because a Bayesian analysis produces the probabilities of future outcomes. Indeed, Goodman maintained that the Bayesian machinery, following the rules of conditional probability, offered the best legitimate inference from available data. We give an example of an informative prior in a recent study of Steller sea lion spatial use patterns in Alaska.