Randomized path optimization for thevMitigated counter detection of UAVS

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

using Bayesian filtering . The KL divergence is used to compare the probability density of aircraft termination to a normal distribution around the...Bayesian filtering . The KL divergence is used to compare the probability density of aircraft termination to a normal distribution around the true terminal...algorithm’s success. A recursive Bayesian filtering scheme is used to assimilate noisy measurements of the UAVs position to predict its terminal location. We

The effects of Medieval dams on genetic divergence and demographic history in brown trout populations

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Habitat fragmentation has accelerated within the last century, but may have been ongoing over longer time scales. We analyzed the timing and genetic consequences of fragmentation in two isolated lake-dwelling brown trout populations. They are from the same river system (the Gudenå River, Denmark) and have been isolated from downstream anadromous trout by dams established ca. 600–800 years ago. For reference, we included ten other anadromous populations and two hatchery strains. Based on analysis of 44 microsatellite loci we investigated if the lake populations have been naturally genetically differentiated from anadromous trout for thousands of years, or have diverged recently due to the establishment of dams. Results Divergence time estimates were based on 1) Approximate Bayesian Computation and 2) a coalescent-based isolation-with-gene-flow model. Both methods suggested divergence times ca. 600–800 years bp, providing strong evidence for establishment of dams in the Medieval as the factor causing divergence. Bayesian cluster analysis showed influence of stocked trout in several reference populations, but not in the focal lake and anadromous populations. Estimates of effective population size using a linkage disequilibrium method ranged from 244 to > 1,000 in all but one anadromous population, but were lower (153 and 252) in the lake populations. Conclusions We show that genetic divergence of lake-dwelling trout in two Danish lakes reflects establishment of water mills and impassable dams ca. 600–800 years ago rather than a natural genetic population structure. Although effective population sizes of the two lake populations are not critically low they may ultimately limit response to selection and thereby future adaptation. Our results demonstrate that populations may have been affected by anthropogenic disturbance over longer time scales than normally assumed. PMID:24903056

The effects of Medieval dams on genetic divergence and demographic history in brown trout populations.

PubMed

Hansen, Michael M; Limborg, Morten T; Ferchaud, Anne-Laure; Pujolar, José-Martin

2014-06-05

Habitat fragmentation has accelerated within the last century, but may have been ongoing over longer time scales. We analyzed the timing and genetic consequences of fragmentation in two isolated lake-dwelling brown trout populations. They are from the same river system (the Gudenå River, Denmark) and have been isolated from downstream anadromous trout by dams established ca. 600-800 years ago. For reference, we included ten other anadromous populations and two hatchery strains. Based on analysis of 44 microsatellite loci we investigated if the lake populations have been naturally genetically differentiated from anadromous trout for thousands of years, or have diverged recently due to the establishment of dams. Divergence time estimates were based on 1) Approximate Bayesian Computation and 2) a coalescent-based isolation-with-gene-flow model. Both methods suggested divergence times ca. 600-800 years bp, providing strong evidence for establishment of dams in the Medieval as the factor causing divergence. Bayesian cluster analysis showed influence of stocked trout in several reference populations, but not in the focal lake and anadromous populations. Estimates of effective population size using a linkage disequilibrium method ranged from 244 to > 1,000 in all but one anadromous population, but were lower (153 and 252) in the lake populations. We show that genetic divergence of lake-dwelling trout in two Danish lakes reflects establishment of water mills and impassable dams ca. 600-800 years ago rather than a natural genetic population structure. Although effective population sizes of the two lake populations are not critically low they may ultimately limit response to selection and thereby future adaptation. Our results demonstrate that populations may have been affected by anthropogenic disturbance over longer time scales than normally assumed.

Empirical and Bayesian approaches to fossil-only divergence times: A study across three reptile clades.

PubMed

Turner, Alan H; Pritchard, Adam C; Matzke, Nicholas J

2017-01-01

Estimating divergence times on phylogenies is critical in paleontological and neontological studies. Chronostratigraphically-constrained fossils are the only direct evidence of absolute timing of species divergence. Strict temporal calibration of fossil-only phylogenies provides minimum divergence estimates, and various methods have been proposed to estimate divergences beyond these minimum values. We explore the utility of simultaneous estimation of tree topology and divergence times using BEAST tip-dating on datasets consisting only of fossils by using relaxed morphological clocks and birth-death tree priors that include serial sampling (BDSS) at a constant rate through time. We compare BEAST results to those from the traditional maximum parsimony (MP) and undated Bayesian inference (BI) methods. Three overlapping datasets were used that span 250 million years of archosauromorph evolution leading to crocodylians. The first dataset focuses on early Sauria (31 taxa, 240 chars.), the second on early Archosauria (76 taxa, 400 chars.) and the third on Crocodyliformes (101 taxa, 340 chars.). For each dataset three time-calibrated trees (timetrees) were calculated: a minimum-age timetree with node ages based on earliest occurrences in the fossil record; a 'smoothed' timetree using a range of time added to the root that is then averaged over zero-length internodes; and a tip-dated timetree. Comparisons within datasets show that the smoothed and tip-dated timetrees provide similar estimates. Only near the root node do BEAST estimates fall outside the smoothed timetree range. The BEAST model is not able to overcome limited sampling to correctly estimate divergences considerably older than sampled fossil occurrence dates. Conversely, the smoothed timetrees consistently provide node-ages far older than the strict dates or BEAST estimates for morphologically conservative sister-taxa when they sit on long ghost lineages. In this latter case, the relaxed-clock model appears to be correctly moderating the node-age estimate based on the limited morphological divergence. Topologies are generally similar across analyses, but BEAST trees for crocodyliforms differ when clades are deeply nested but contain very old taxa. It appears that the constant-rate sampling assumption of the BDSS tree prior influences topology inference by disfavoring long, unsampled branches.

Empirical and Bayesian approaches to fossil-only divergence times: A study across three reptile clades

PubMed Central

Turner, Alan H.; Pritchard, Adam C.; Matzke, Nicholas J.

2017-01-01

Estimating divergence times on phylogenies is critical in paleontological and neontological studies. Chronostratigraphically-constrained fossils are the only direct evidence of absolute timing of species divergence. Strict temporal calibration of fossil-only phylogenies provides minimum divergence estimates, and various methods have been proposed to estimate divergences beyond these minimum values. We explore the utility of simultaneous estimation of tree topology and divergence times using BEAST tip-dating on datasets consisting only of fossils by using relaxed morphological clocks and birth-death tree priors that include serial sampling (BDSS) at a constant rate through time. We compare BEAST results to those from the traditional maximum parsimony (MP) and undated Bayesian inference (BI) methods. Three overlapping datasets were used that span 250 million years of archosauromorph evolution leading to crocodylians. The first dataset focuses on early Sauria (31 taxa, 240 chars.), the second on early Archosauria (76 taxa, 400 chars.) and the third on Crocodyliformes (101 taxa, 340 chars.). For each dataset three time-calibrated trees (timetrees) were calculated: a minimum-age timetree with node ages based on earliest occurrences in the fossil record; a ‘smoothed’ timetree using a range of time added to the root that is then averaged over zero-length internodes; and a tip-dated timetree. Comparisons within datasets show that the smoothed and tip-dated timetrees provide similar estimates. Only near the root node do BEAST estimates fall outside the smoothed timetree range. The BEAST model is not able to overcome limited sampling to correctly estimate divergences considerably older than sampled fossil occurrence dates. Conversely, the smoothed timetrees consistently provide node-ages far older than the strict dates or BEAST estimates for morphologically conservative sister-taxa when they sit on long ghost lineages. In this latter case, the relaxed-clock model appears to be correctly moderating the node-age estimate based on the limited morphological divergence. Topologies are generally similar across analyses, but BEAST trees for crocodyliforms differ when clades are deeply nested but contain very old taxa. It appears that the constant-rate sampling assumption of the BDSS tree prior influences topology inference by disfavoring long, unsampled branches. PMID:28187191

Strategies for improving approximate Bayesian computation tests for synchronous diversification.

PubMed

Overcast, Isaac; Bagley, Justin C; Hickerson, Michael J

2017-08-24

Estimating the variability in isolation times across co-distributed taxon pairs that may have experienced the same allopatric isolating mechanism is a core goal of comparative phylogeography. The use of hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and coalescent models to infer temporal dynamics of lineage co-diversification has been a contentious topic in recent years. Key issues that remain unresolved include the choice of an appropriate prior on the number of co-divergence events (Ψ), as well as the optimal strategies for data summarization. Through simulation-based cross validation we explore the impact of the strategy for sorting summary statistics and the choice of prior on Ψ on the estimation of co-divergence variability. We also introduce a new setting (β) that can potentially improve estimation of Ψ by enforcing a minimal temporal difference between pulses of co-divergence. We apply this new method to three empirical datasets: one dataset each of co-distributed taxon pairs of Panamanian frogs and freshwater fishes, and a large set of Neotropical butterfly sister-taxon pairs. We demonstrate that the choice of prior on Ψ has little impact on inference, but that sorting summary statistics yields substantially more reliable estimates of co-divergence variability despite violations of assumptions about exchangeability. We find the implementation of β improves estimation of Ψ, with improvement being most dramatic given larger numbers of taxon pairs. We find equivocal support for synchronous co-divergence for both of the Panamanian groups, but we find considerable support for asynchronous divergence among the Neotropical butterflies. Our simulation experiments demonstrate that using sorted summary statistics results in improved estimates of the variability in divergence times, whereas the choice of hyperprior on Ψ has negligible effect. Additionally, we demonstrate that estimating the number of pulses of co-divergence across co-distributed taxon-pairs is improved by applying a flexible buffering regime over divergence times. This improves the correlation between Ψ and the true variability in isolation times and allows for more meaningful interpretation of this hyperparameter. This will allow for more accurate identification of the number of temporally distinct pulses of co-divergence that generated the diversification pattern of a given regional assemblage of sister-taxon-pairs.

High-throughput sequencing of complete human mtDNA genomes from the Caucasus and West Asia: high diversity and demographic inferences.

PubMed

Schönberg, Anna; Theunert, Christoph; Li, Mingkun; Stoneking, Mark; Nasidze, Ivan

2011-09-01

To investigate the demographic history of human populations from the Caucasus and surrounding regions, we used high-throughput sequencing to generate 147 complete mtDNA genome sequences from random samples of individuals from three groups from the Caucasus (Armenians, Azeri and Georgians), and one group each from Iran and Turkey. Overall diversity is very high, with 144 different sequences that fall into 97 different haplogroups found among the 147 individuals. Bayesian skyline plots (BSPs) of population size change through time show a population expansion around 40-50 kya, followed by a constant population size, and then another expansion around 15-18 kya for the groups from the Caucasus and Iran. The BSP for Turkey differs the most from the others, with an increase from 35 to 50 kya followed by a prolonged period of constant population size, and no indication of a second period of growth. An approximate Bayesian computation approach was used to estimate divergence times between each pair of populations; the oldest divergence times were between Turkey and the other four groups from the South Caucasus and Iran (~400-600 generations), while the divergence time of the three Caucasus groups from each other was comparable to their divergence time from Iran (average of ~360 generations). These results illustrate the value of random sampling of complete mtDNA genome sequences that can be obtained with high-throughput sequencing platforms.

Analyzing the relationship between sequence divergence and nodal support using Bayesian phylogenetic analyses.

PubMed

Makowsky, Robert; Cox, Christian L; Roelke, Corey; Chippindale, Paul T

2010-11-01

Determining the appropriate gene for phylogeny reconstruction can be a difficult process. Rapidly evolving genes tend to resolve recent relationships, but suffer from alignment issues and increased homoplasy among distantly related species. Conversely, slowly evolving genes generally perform best for deeper relationships, but lack sufficient variation to resolve recent relationships. We determine the relationship between sequence divergence and Bayesian phylogenetic reconstruction ability using both natural and simulated datasets. The natural data are based on 28 well-supported relationships within the subphylum Vertebrata. Sequences of 12 genes were acquired and Bayesian analyses were used to determine phylogenetic support for correct relationships. Simulated datasets were designed to determine whether an optimal range of sequence divergence exists across extreme phylogenetic conditions. Across all genes we found that an optimal range of divergence for resolving the correct relationships does exist, although this level of divergence expectedly depends on the distance metric. Simulated datasets show that an optimal range of sequence divergence exists across diverse topologies and models of evolution. We determine that a simple to measure property of genetic sequences (genetic distance) is related to phylogenic reconstruction ability in Bayesian analyses. This information should be useful for selecting the most informative gene to resolve any relationships, especially those that are difficult to resolve, as well as minimizing both cost and confounding information during project design. Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Phylogeography of the Western Lyresnake (Trimorphodon biscutatus): testing aridland biogeographical hypotheses across the Nearctic-Neotropical transition.

PubMed

Devitt, Thomas J

2006-12-01

The Western Lyresnake (Trimorphodon biscutatus) is a widespread, polytypic taxon inhabiting arid regions from the warm deserts of the southwestern United States southward along the Pacific versant of Mexico to the tropical deciduous forests of Mesoamerica. This broadly distributed species provides a unique opportunity to evaluate a priori biogeographical hypotheses spanning two major distinct biogeographical realms (the Nearctic and Neotropical) that are usually treated separately in phylogeographical analyses. I investigated the phylogeography of T. biscutatus using maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from across this species' range. Phylogenetic analyses recovered five well-supported clades whose boundaries are concordant with existing geographical barriers, a pattern consistent with a model of vicariant allopatric divergence. Assuming a vicariance model, divergence times between mitochondrial lineages were estimated using Bayesian relaxed molecular clock methods calibrated using geological information from putative vicariant events. Divergence time point estimates were bounded by broad confidence intervals, and thus these highly conservative estimates should be considered tentative hypotheses at best. Comparison of mtDNA lineages and taxa traditionally recognized as subspecies based on morphology suggest this taxon is comprised of multiple independent lineages at various stages of divergence, ranging from putative secondary contact and hybridization to sympatry of 'subspecies'.

Multi-locus phylogeny and divergence time estimates of Enallagma damselflies (Odonata: Coenagrionidae).

PubMed

Callahan, Melissa S; McPeek, Mark A

2016-01-01

Reconstructing evolutionary patterns of species and populations provides a framework for asking questions about the impacts of climate change. Here we use a multilocus dataset to estimate gene trees under maximum likelihood and Bayesian models to obtain a robust estimate of relationships for a genus of North American damselflies, Enallagma. Using a relaxed molecular clock, we estimate the divergence times for this group. Furthermore, to account for the fact that gene tree analyses can overestimate ages of population divergences, we use a multi-population coalescent model to gain a more accurate estimate of divergence times. We also infer diversification rates using a method that allows for variation in diversification rate through time and among lineages. Our results reveal a complex evolutionary history of Enallagma, in which divergence events both predate and occur during Pleistocene climate fluctuations. There is also evidence of diversification rate heterogeneity across the tree. These divergence time estimates provide a foundation for addressing the relative significance of historical climatic events in the diversification of this genus. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Theoretical Foundation of the RelTime Method for Estimating Divergence Times from Variable Evolutionary Rates

PubMed Central

Tamura, Koichiro; Tao, Qiqing; Kumar, Sudhir

2018-01-01

Abstract RelTime estimates divergence times by relaxing the assumption of a strict molecular clock in a phylogeny. It shows excellent performance in estimating divergence times for both simulated and empirical molecular sequence data sets in which evolutionary rates varied extensively throughout the tree. RelTime is computationally efficient and scales well with increasing size of data sets. Until now, however, RelTime has not had a formal mathematical foundation. Here, we show that the basis of the RelTime approach is a relative rate framework (RRF) that combines comparisons of evolutionary rates in sister lineages with the principle of minimum rate change between evolutionary lineages and their respective descendants. We present analytical solutions for estimating relative lineage rates and divergence times under RRF. We also discuss the relationship of RRF with other approaches, including the Bayesian framework. We conclude that RelTime will be useful for phylogenies with branch lengths derived not only from molecular data, but also morphological and biochemical traits. PMID:29893954

Bayesian Divergence-Time Estimation with Genome-Wide SNP Data of Sea Catfishes (Ariidae) Supports Miocene Closure of the Panamanian Isthmus.

PubMed

Stange, Madlen; Sánchez-Villagra, Marcelo R; Salzburger, Walter; Matschiner, Michael

2018-01-27

The closure of the Isthmus of Panama has long been considered to be one of the best defined biogeographic calibration points for molecular divergence-time estimation. However, geological and biological evidence has recently cast doubt on the presumed timing of the initial isthmus closure around 3 Ma but has instead suggested the existence of temporary land bridges as early as the Middle or Late Miocene. The biological evidence supporting these earlier land bridges was based either on only few molecular markers or on concatenation of genome-wide sequence data, an approach that is known to result in potentially misleading branch lengths and divergence times, which could compromise the reliability of this evidence. To allow divergence-time estimation with genomic data using the more appropriate multi-species coalescent model, we here develop a new method combining the SNP-based Bayesian species-tree inference of the software SNAPP with a molecular clock model that can be calibrated with fossil or biogeographic constraints. We validate our approach with simulations and use our method to reanalyze genomic data of Neotropical army ants (Dorylinae) that previously supported divergence times of Central and South American populations before the isthmus closure around 3 Ma. Our reanalysis with the multi-species coalescent model shifts all of these divergence times to ages younger than 3 Ma, suggesting that the older estimates supporting the earlier existence of temporary land bridges were artifacts resulting at least partially from the use of concatenation. We then apply our method to a new RAD-sequencing data set of Neotropical sea catfishes (Ariidae) and calibrate their species tree with extensive information from the fossil record. We identify a series of divergences between groups of Caribbean and Pacific sea catfishes around 10 Ma, indicating that processes related to the emergence of the isthmus led to vicariant speciation already in the Late Miocene, millions of years before the final isthmus closure. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages.

PubMed

Drummond, Alexei J; Stadler, Tanja

2016-07-19

Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth-death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the 'morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Dating species divergences using rocks and clocks'. © 2016 The Authors.

Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages

PubMed Central

Drummond, Alexei J.; Stadler, Tanja

2016-01-01

Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth–death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the ‘morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Dating species divergences using rocks and clocks’. PMID:27325827

Phylogeny, time divergence, and historical biogeography of the South American Liolaemus alticolor-bibronii group (Iguania: Liolaemidae)

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The genus Liolaemus comprises more than 260 species and can be divided in two subgenera: Eulaemus and Liolaemus sensu stricto. In this paper, we present a phylogenetic analysis, divergence times, and ancestral distribution ranges of the Liolaemus alticolor-bibronii group (Liolaemus sensu stricto subgenus). We inferred a total evidence phylogeny combining molecular (Cytb and 12S genes) and morphological characters using Maximum Parsimony and Bayesian Inference. Divergence times were calculated using Bayesian MCMC with an uncorrelated lognormal distributed relaxed clock, calibrated with a fossil record. Ancestral ranges were estimated using the Dispersal-Extinction-Cladogenesis (DEC-Lagrange). Effects of some a priori parameters of DEC were also tested. Distribution ranged from central Perú to southern Argentina, including areas at sea level up to the high Andes. The L. alticolor-bibronii group was recovered as monophyletic, formed by two clades: L. walkeri and L. gracilis, the latter can be split in two groups. Additionally, many species candidates were recognized. We estimate that the L. alticolor-bibronii group diversified 14.5 Myr ago, during the Middle Miocene. Our results suggest that the ancestor of the Liolaemus alticolor-bibronii group was distributed in a wide area including Patagonia and Puna highlands. The speciation pattern follows the South-North Diversification Hypothesis, following the Andean uplift. PMID:29479502

Divergence Times and the Evolutionary Radiation of New World Monkeys (Platyrrhini, Primates): An Analysis of Fossil and Molecular Data.

PubMed

Perez, S Ivan; Tejedor, Marcelo F; Novo, Nelson M; Aristide, Leandro

2013-01-01

The estimation of phylogenetic relationships and divergence times among a group of organisms is a fundamental first step toward understanding its biological diversification. The time of the most recent or last common ancestor (LCA) of extant platyrrhines is one of the most controversial among scholars of primate evolution. Here we use two molecular based approaches to date the initial divergence of the platyrrhine clade, Bayesian estimations under a relaxed-clock model and substitution rate plus generation time and body size, employing the fossil record and genome datasets. We also explore the robustness of our estimations with respect to changes in topology, fossil constraints and substitution rate, and discuss the implications of our findings for understanding the platyrrhine radiation. Our results suggest that fossil constraints, topology and substitution rate have an important influence on our divergence time estimates. Bayesian estimates using conservative but realistic fossil constraints suggest that the LCA of extant platyrrhines existed at ca. 29 Ma, with the 95% confidence limit for the node ranging from 27-31 Ma. The LCA of extant platyrrhine monkeys based on substitution rate corrected by generation time and body size was established between 21-29 Ma. The estimates based on the two approaches used in this study recalibrate the ages of the major platyrrhine clades and corroborate the hypothesis that they constitute very old lineages. These results can help reconcile several controversial points concerning the affinities of key early Miocene fossils that have arisen among paleontologists and molecular systematists. However, they cannot resolve the controversy of whether these fossil species truly belong to the extant lineages or to a stem platyrrhine clade. That question can only be resolved by morphology. Finally, we show that the use of different approaches and well supported fossil information gives a more robust divergence time estimate of a clade.

Divergence Times and the Evolutionary Radiation of New World Monkeys (Platyrrhini, Primates): An Analysis of Fossil and Molecular Data

PubMed Central

Perez, S. Ivan; Tejedor, Marcelo F.; Novo, Nelson M.; Aristide, Leandro

2013-01-01

The estimation of phylogenetic relationships and divergence times among a group of organisms is a fundamental first step toward understanding its biological diversification. The time of the most recent or last common ancestor (LCA) of extant platyrrhines is one of the most controversial among scholars of primate evolution. Here we use two molecular based approaches to date the initial divergence of the platyrrhine clade, Bayesian estimations under a relaxed-clock model and substitution rate plus generation time and body size, employing the fossil record and genome datasets. We also explore the robustness of our estimations with respect to changes in topology, fossil constraints and substitution rate, and discuss the implications of our findings for understanding the platyrrhine radiation. Our results suggest that fossil constraints, topology and substitution rate have an important influence on our divergence time estimates. Bayesian estimates using conservative but realistic fossil constraints suggest that the LCA of extant platyrrhines existed at ca. 29 Ma, with the 95% confidence limit for the node ranging from 27–31 Ma. The LCA of extant platyrrhine monkeys based on substitution rate corrected by generation time and body size was established between 21–29 Ma. The estimates based on the two approaches used in this study recalibrate the ages of the major platyrrhine clades and corroborate the hypothesis that they constitute very old lineages. These results can help reconcile several controversial points concerning the affinities of key early Miocene fossils that have arisen among paleontologists and molecular systematists. However, they cannot resolve the controversy of whether these fossil species truly belong to the extant lineages or to a stem platyrrhine clade. That question can only be resolved by morphology. Finally, we show that the use of different approaches and well supported fossil information gives a more robust divergence time estimate of a clade. PMID:23826358

Phylogeny and Bayesian divergence time estimations of small-headed flies (Diptera: Acroceridae) using multiple molecular markers.

PubMed

Winterton, Shaun L; Wiegmann, Brian M; Schlinger, Evert I

2007-06-01

The first formal analysis of phylogenetic relationships among small-headed flies (Acroceridae) is presented based on DNA sequence data from two ribosomal (16S and 28S) and two protein-encoding genes: carbomoylphosphate synthase (CPS) domain of CAD (i.e., rudimentary locus) and cytochrome oxidase I (COI). DNA sequences from 40 species in 22 genera of Acroceridae (representing all three subfamilies) were compared with outgroup exemplars from Nemestrinidae, Stratiomyidae, Tabanidae, and Xylophagidae. Parsimony and Bayesian simultaneous analyses of the full data set recover a well-resolved and strongly supported hypothesis of phylogenetic relationships for major lineages within the family. Molecular evidence supports the monophyly of traditionally recognised subfamilies Philopotinae and Panopinae, but Acrocerinae are polyphyletic. Panopinae, sometimes considered "primitive" based on morphology and host-use, are always placed in a more derived position in the current study. Furthermore, these data support emerging morphological evidence that the type genus Acrocera Meigen, and its sister genus Sphaerops, are atypical acrocerids, comprising a sister lineage to all other Acroceridae. Based on the phylogeny generated in the simultaneous analysis, historical divergence times were estimated using Bayesian methodology constrained with fossil data. These estimates indicate Acroceridae likely evolved during the late Triassic but did not diversify greatly until the Cretaceous.

Context Effects in Multi-Alternative Decision Making: Empirical Data and a Bayesian Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hawkins, Guy; Brown, Scott D.; Steyvers, Mark; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2012-01-01

For decisions between many alternatives, the benchmark result is Hick's Law: that response time increases log-linearly with the number of choice alternatives. Even when Hick's Law is observed for response times, divergent results have been observed for error rates--sometimes error rates increase with the number of choice alternatives, and…

Fast algorithms for computing phylogenetic divergence time.

PubMed

Crosby, Ralph W; Williams, Tiffani L

2017-12-06

The inference of species divergence time is a key step in most phylogenetic studies. Methods have been available for the last ten years to perform the inference, but the performance of the methods does not yet scale well to studies with hundreds of taxa and thousands of DNA base pairs. For example a study of 349 primate taxa was estimated to require over 9 months of processing time. In this work, we present a new algorithm, AncestralAge, that significantly improves the performance of the divergence time process. As part of AncestralAge, we demonstrate a new method for the computation of phylogenetic likelihood and our experiments show a 90% improvement in likelihood computation time on the aforementioned dataset of 349 primates taxa with over 60,000 DNA base pairs. Additionally, we show that our new method for the computation of the Bayesian prior on node ages reduces the running time for this computation on the 349 taxa dataset by 99%. Through the use of these new algorithms we open up the ability to perform divergence time inference on large phylogenetic studies.

Cryptic genetic diversity, population structure, and gene flow in the Mojave rattlesnake (Crotalus scutulatus).

PubMed

Schield, Drew R; Adams, Richard H; Card, Daren C; Corbin, Andrew B; Jezkova, Tereza; Hales, Nicole R; Meik, Jesse M; Perry, Blair W; Spencer, Carol L; Smith, Lydia L; García, Gustavo Campillo; Bouzid, Nassima M; Strickland, Jason L; Parkinson, Christopher L; Borja, Miguel; Castañeda-Gaytán, Gamaliel; Bryson, Robert W; Flores-Villela, Oscar A; Mackessy, Stephen P; Castoe, Todd A

2018-06-15

The Mojave rattlesnake (Crotalus scutulatus) inhabits deserts and arid grasslands of the western United States and Mexico. Despite considerable interest in its highly toxic venom and the recognition of two subspecies, no molecular studies have characterized range-wide genetic diversity and population structure or tested species limits within C. scutulatus. We used mitochondrial DNA and thousands of nuclear loci from double-digest restriction site associated DNA sequencing to infer population genetic structure throughout the range of C. scutulatus, and to evaluate divergence times and gene flow between populations. We find strong support for several divergent mitochondrial and nuclear clades of C. scutulatus, including splits coincident with two major phylogeographic barriers: the Continental Divide and the elevational increase associated with the Central Mexican Plateau. We apply Bayesian clustering, phylogenetic inference, and coalescent-based species delimitation to our nuclear genetic data to test hypotheses of population structure. We also performed demographic analyses to test hypotheses relating to population divergence and gene flow. Collectively, our results support the existence of four distinct lineages within C. scutulatus, and genetically defined populations do not correspond with currently recognized subspecies ranges. Finally, we use approximate Bayesian computation to test hypotheses of divergence among multiple rattlesnake species groups distributed across the Continental Divide, and find evidence for co-divergence at this boundary during the mid-Pleistocene. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Calibrated birth-death phylogenetic time-tree priors for bayesian inference.

PubMed

Heled, Joseph; Drummond, Alexei J

2015-05-01

Here we introduce a general class of multiple calibration birth-death tree priors for use in Bayesian phylogenetic inference. All tree priors in this class separate ancestral node heights into a set of "calibrated nodes" and "uncalibrated nodes" such that the marginal distribution of the calibrated nodes is user-specified whereas the density ratio of the birth-death prior is retained for trees with equal values for the calibrated nodes. We describe two formulations, one in which the calibration information informs the prior on ranked tree topologies, through the (conditional) prior, and the other which factorizes the prior on divergence times and ranked topologies, thus allowing uniform, or any arbitrary prior distribution on ranked topologies. Although the first of these formulations has some attractive properties, the algorithm we present for computing its prior density is computationally intensive. However, the second formulation is always faster and computationally efficient for up to six calibrations. We demonstrate the utility of the new class of multiple-calibration tree priors using both small simulations and a real-world analysis and compare the results to existing schemes. The two new calibrated tree priors described in this article offer greater flexibility and control of prior specification in calibrated time-tree inference and divergence time dating, and will remove the need for indirect approaches to the assessment of the combined effect of calibration densities and tree priors in Bayesian phylogenetic inference. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

Branch length estimation and divergence dating: estimates of error in Bayesian and maximum likelihood frameworks.

PubMed

Schwartz, Rachel S; Mueller, Rachel L

2010-01-11

Estimates of divergence dates between species improve our understanding of processes ranging from nucleotide substitution to speciation. Such estimates are frequently based on molecular genetic differences between species; therefore, they rely on accurate estimates of the number of such differences (i.e. substitutions per site, measured as branch length on phylogenies). We used simulations to determine the effects of dataset size, branch length heterogeneity, branch depth, and analytical framework on branch length estimation across a range of branch lengths. We then reanalyzed an empirical dataset for plethodontid salamanders to determine how inaccurate branch length estimation can affect estimates of divergence dates. The accuracy of branch length estimation varied with branch length, dataset size (both number of taxa and sites), branch length heterogeneity, branch depth, dataset complexity, and analytical framework. For simple phylogenies analyzed in a Bayesian framework, branches were increasingly underestimated as branch length increased; in a maximum likelihood framework, longer branch lengths were somewhat overestimated. Longer datasets improved estimates in both frameworks; however, when the number of taxa was increased, estimation accuracy for deeper branches was less than for tip branches. Increasing the complexity of the dataset produced more misestimated branches in a Bayesian framework; however, in an ML framework, more branches were estimated more accurately. Using ML branch length estimates to re-estimate plethodontid salamander divergence dates generally resulted in an increase in the estimated age of older nodes and a decrease in the estimated age of younger nodes. Branch lengths are misestimated in both statistical frameworks for simulations of simple datasets. However, for complex datasets, length estimates are quite accurate in ML (even for short datasets), whereas few branches are estimated accurately in a Bayesian framework. Our reanalysis of empirical data demonstrates the magnitude of effects of Bayesian branch length misestimation on divergence date estimates. Because the length of branches for empirical datasets can be estimated most reliably in an ML framework when branches are <1 substitution/site and datasets are > or =1 kb, we suggest that divergence date estimates using datasets, branch lengths, and/or analytical techniques that fall outside of these parameters should be interpreted with caution.

The historical biogeography of the freshwater knifefishes using mitogenomic approaches: a mesozoic origin of the Asian notopterids (Actinopterygii: Osteoglossomorpha).

PubMed

Inoue, Jun G; Kumazawa, Yoshinori; Miya, Masaki; Nishida, Mutsumi

2009-06-01

The continental distributions of freshwater fishes in the family Notopteridae (Osteoglossomorpha) across Africa, India, and Southeast Asia constitute a long standing and enigmatic problem of freshwater biogeography. The migrational pathway of the Asian notopterids has been discussed in light of two competing schemes: the first posits recent transcontinental dispersal while the second relies on distributions being shaped by ancient vicariance associated with plate-tectonic events. In this study, we determined complete mitochondrial DNA sequences from 10 osteoglossomorph fishes to estimate phylogenetic relationships using partitioned Bayesian and maximum likelihood methods and divergence dates of the family Notopteridae with a partitioned Bayesian approach. We used six species representing the major lineages of the Notopteridae and seven species from the remaining osteoglossomorph families. Fourteen more-derived teleosts, nine basal actinopterygians, two coelacanths, and one shark were used as outgroups. Phylogenetic analyses indicated that the African and Asian notopterids formed a sister group to each other and that these notopterids were a sister to a clade comprising two African families (Mormyridae and Gymnarchidae). Estimated divergence time between the African and Asian notopterids dated back to the early Cretaceous when India-Madagascar separated from the African part of Gondwanaland. Thus, estimated time of divergence based on the molecular evidence is at odds with the recent dispersal model. It can be reconciled with the geological and paleontological evidence to support the vicariance model in which the Asian notopterids diverged from the African notopterids in Gondwanaland and migrated into Eurasia on the Indian subcontinent from the Cretaceous to the Tertiary. However, we could not exclude an alternative explanation that the African and Asian notopterids diverged in Pangea before its complete separation into Laurasia and Gondwanaland, to which these two lineages were later confined, respectively.

Pre- versus post-mass extinction divergence of Mesozoic marine reptiles dictated by time-scale dependence of evolutionary rates.

PubMed

Motani, Ryosuke; Jiang, Da-Yong; Tintori, Andrea; Ji, Cheng; Huang, Jian-Dong

2017-05-17

The fossil record of a major clade often starts after a mass extinction even though evolutionary rates, molecular or morphological, suggest its pre-extinction emergence (e.g. squamates, placentals and teleosts). The discrepancy is larger for older clades, and the presence of a time-scale-dependent methodological bias has been suggested, yet it has been difficult to avoid the bias using Bayesian phylogenetic methods. This paradox raises the question of whether ecological vacancies, such as those after mass extinctions, prompt the radiations. We addressed this problem by using a unique temporal characteristic of the morphological data and a high-resolution stratigraphic record, for the oldest clade of Mesozoic marine reptiles, Ichthyosauromorpha. The evolutionary rate was fastest during the first few million years of ichthyosauromorph evolution and became progressively slower over time, eventually becoming six times slower. Using the later slower rates, estimates of divergence time become excessively older. The fast, initial rate suggests the emergence of ichthyosauromorphs after the end-Permian mass extinction, matching an independent result from high-resolution stratigraphic confidence intervals. These reptiles probably invaded the sea as a new ecosystem was formed after the end-Permian mass extinction. Lack of information on early evolution biased Bayesian clock rates. © 2017 The Author(s).

Pre- versus post-mass extinction divergence of Mesozoic marine reptiles dictated by time-scale dependence of evolutionary rates

PubMed Central

Ji, Cheng; Huang, Jian-dong

2017-01-01

The fossil record of a major clade often starts after a mass extinction even though evolutionary rates, molecular or morphological, suggest its pre-extinction emergence (e.g. squamates, placentals and teleosts). The discrepancy is larger for older clades, and the presence of a time-scale-dependent methodological bias has been suggested, yet it has been difficult to avoid the bias using Bayesian phylogenetic methods. This paradox raises the question of whether ecological vacancies, such as those after mass extinctions, prompt the radiations. We addressed this problem by using a unique temporal characteristic of the morphological data and a high-resolution stratigraphic record, for the oldest clade of Mesozoic marine reptiles, Ichthyosauromorpha. The evolutionary rate was fastest during the first few million years of ichthyosauromorph evolution and became progressively slower over time, eventually becoming six times slower. Using the later slower rates, estimates of divergence time become excessively older. The fast, initial rate suggests the emergence of ichthyosauromorphs after the end-Permian mass extinction, matching an independent result from high-resolution stratigraphic confidence intervals. These reptiles probably invaded the sea as a new ecosystem was formed after the end-Permian mass extinction. Lack of information on early evolution biased Bayesian clock rates. PMID:28515201

Characterization of the uncertainty of divergence time estimation under relaxed molecular clock models using multiple loci.

PubMed

Zhu, Tianqi; Dos Reis, Mario; Yang, Ziheng

2015-03-01

Genetic sequence data provide information about the distances between species or branch lengths in a phylogeny, but not about the absolute divergence times or the evolutionary rates directly. Bayesian methods for dating species divergences estimate times and rates by assigning priors on them. In particular, the prior on times (node ages on the phylogeny) incorporates information in the fossil record to calibrate the molecular tree. Because times and rates are confounded, our posterior time estimates will not approach point values even if an infinite amount of sequence data are used in the analysis. In a previous study we developed a finite-sites theory to characterize the uncertainty in Bayesian divergence time estimation in analysis of large but finite sequence data sets under a strict molecular clock. As most modern clock dating analyses use more than one locus and are conducted under relaxed clock models, here we extend the theory to the case of relaxed clock analysis of data from multiple loci (site partitions). Uncertainty in posterior time estimates is partitioned into three sources: Sampling errors in the estimates of branch lengths in the tree for each locus due to limited sequence length, variation of substitution rates among lineages and among loci, and uncertainty in fossil calibrations. Using a simple but analogous estimation problem involving the multivariate normal distribution, we predict that as the number of loci ([Formula: see text]) goes to infinity, the variance in posterior time estimates decreases and approaches the infinite-data limit at the rate of 1/[Formula: see text], and the limit is independent of the number of sites in the sequence alignment. We then confirmed the predictions by using computer simulation on phylogenies of two or three species, and by analyzing a real genomic data set for six primate species. Our results suggest that with the fossil calibrations fixed, analyzing multiple loci or site partitions is the most effective way for improving the precision of posterior time estimation. However, even if a huge amount of sequence data is analyzed, considerable uncertainty will persist in time estimates. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

Historical reconstruction of climatic and elevation preferences and the evolution of cloud forest-adapted tree ferns in Mesoamerica.

PubMed

Sosa, Victoria; Ornelas, Juan Francisco; Ramírez-Barahona, Santiago; Gándara, Etelvina

2016-01-01

Cloud forests, characterized by a persistent, frequent or seasonal low-level cloud cover and fragmented distribution, are one of the most threatened habitats, especially in the Neotropics. Tree ferns are among the most conspicuous elements in these forests, and ferns are restricted to regions in which minimum temperatures rarely drop below freezing and rainfall is high and evenly distributed around the year. Current phylogeographic data suggest that some of the cloud forest-adapted species remained in situ or expanded to the lowlands during glacial cycles and contracted allopatrically during the interglacials. Although the observed genetic signals of population size changes of cloud forest-adapted species including tree ferns correspond to predicted changes by Pleistocene climate change dynamics, the observed patterns of intraspecific lineage divergence showed temporal incongruence. Here we combined phylogenetic analyses, ancestral area reconstruction, and divergence time estimates with climatic and altitudinal data (environmental space) for phenotypic traits of tree fern species to make inferences about evolutionary processes in deep time. We used phylogenetic Bayesian inference and geographic and altitudinal distribution of tree ferns to investigate ancestral area and elevation and environmental preferences of Mesoamerican tree ferns. The phylogeny was then used to estimate divergence times and ask whether the ancestral area and elevation and environmental shifts were linked to climatic events and historical climatic preferences. Bayesian trees retrieved Cyathea, Alsophyla, Gymnosphaera and Sphaeropteris in monophyletic clades. Splits for species in these genera found in Mesoamerican cloud forests are recent, from the Neogene to the Quaternary, Australia was identified as the ancestral area for the clades of these genera, except for Gymnosphaera that was Mesoamerica. Climate tolerance was not divergent from hypothesized ancestors for the most significant variables or elevation. For elevational shifts, we found repeated change from low to high elevations. Our data suggest that representatives of Cyatheaceae main lineages migrated from Australia to Mesoamerican cloud forests in different times and have persisted in these environmentally unstable areas but extant species diverged recentrly from their ancestors.

Historical reconstruction of climatic and elevation preferences and the evolution of cloud forest-adapted tree ferns in Mesoamerica

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Background Cloud forests, characterized by a persistent, frequent or seasonal low-level cloud cover and fragmented distribution, are one of the most threatened habitats, especially in the Neotropics. Tree ferns are among the most conspicuous elements in these forests, and ferns are restricted to regions in which minimum temperatures rarely drop below freezing and rainfall is high and evenly distributed around the year. Current phylogeographic data suggest that some of the cloud forest-adapted species remained in situ or expanded to the lowlands during glacial cycles and contracted allopatrically during the interglacials. Although the observed genetic signals of population size changes of cloud forest-adapted species including tree ferns correspond to predicted changes by Pleistocene climate change dynamics, the observed patterns of intraspecific lineage divergence showed temporal incongruence. Methods Here we combined phylogenetic analyses, ancestral area reconstruction, and divergence time estimates with climatic and altitudinal data (environmental space) for phenotypic traits of tree fern species to make inferences about evolutionary processes in deep time. We used phylogenetic Bayesian inference and geographic and altitudinal distribution of tree ferns to investigate ancestral area and elevation and environmental preferences of Mesoamerican tree ferns. The phylogeny was then used to estimate divergence times and ask whether the ancestral area and elevation and environmental shifts were linked to climatic events and historical climatic preferences. Results Bayesian trees retrieved Cyathea, Alsophyla, Gymnosphaera and Sphaeropteris in monophyletic clades. Splits for species in these genera found in Mesoamerican cloud forests are recent, from the Neogene to the Quaternary, Australia was identified as the ancestral area for the clades of these genera, except for Gymnosphaera that was Mesoamerica. Climate tolerance was not divergent from hypothesized ancestors for the most significant variables or elevation. For elevational shifts, we found repeated change from low to high elevations. Conclusions Our data suggest that representatives of Cyatheaceae main lineages migrated from Australia to Mesoamerican cloud forests in different times and have persisted in these environmentally unstable areas but extant species diverged recentrly from their ancestors. PMID:27896030

Divergence times and colonization of the Canary Islands by Gallotia lizards.

PubMed

Cox, Siobhan C; Carranza, Salvador; Brown, Richard P

2010-08-01

The Canary Islands have become a model region for evolutionary studies. We obtained 1.8 Kbp of mtDNA sequence from all known island forms of the endemic lizard genus Gallotia and from its sister taxon Psammodromus in order to reanalyze phylogenetic relationships within the archipelago, estimate lineage divergence times, and reconstruct the colonization history of this group. Well-supported phylogenies were obtained using maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference. Previous studies have been unable to establish the branching pattern at the base of the tree. We found evidence that G. stehlini (Gran Canaria) originated from the most basal Gallotia node and G. atlantica from the subsequent node. Divergence times were estimated under a global clock using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods implemented by three different programs: BEAST, MCMCTREE, MULTIDIVTIME. Node constraints were derived from subaerial island appearance data and were incorporated into the analyses as soft or hard maximal bounds. Posterior node ages differed slightly between programs, possibly due to different priors on divergence times. The most eastern Canary Islands first emerged just over 20 mya and their colonization appears to have taken place relatively quickly, around 17-20 mya. The subsequent node is consistent with cladogenesis due to colonization of Gran Canaria from the eastern islands about 11-13 mya. The western islands appear to have been colonized by a dispersal event from Lanzarote/Fuerteventura in the east to either La Gomera or one of the ancient edifices that subsequently formed Tenerife in the west, about 9-10 mya. Within the western islands, the most recent node that is ancestral to both the G. intermedia/G. gomerana/G. simonyi and the G.galloti/G. caesaris clades is dated at about 5-6 mya. Subsequent dispersal events between ancient Tenerife islands and La Gomera are dated at around 3 mya in both clades, although the direction of dispersal cannot be determined. Finally, we show that G. galloti is likely to have colonized La Palma more than 0.5 Ma after emergence of the island 1.77 mya, while G. caesaris from the same clade may have colonized El Hierro very soon after it emerged 1.12 mya. There are tentative indications that the large-bodied endangered G. simonyi colonized El Hierro around the same time or even later than the smaller-bodied G. caesaris. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of Bayesian dating of a phylogeny in helping reconstruct the historical pattern of dispersal across an oceanic archipelago. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Delimiting cryptic pathogen species causing apple Valsa canker with multilocus data

PubMed Central

Wang, Xuli; Zang, Rui; Yin, Zhiyuan; Kang, Zhensheng; Huang, Lili

2014-01-01

Fungal diseases are posing tremendous threats to global economy and food safety. Among them, Valsa canker, caused by fungi of Valsa and their Cytospora anamorphs, has been a serious threat to fruit and forest trees and is one of the most destructive diseases of apple in East Asia, particularly. Accurate and robust delimitation of pathogen species is not only essential for the development of effective disease control programs, but also will advance our understanding of the emergence of plant diseases. However, species delimitation is especially difficult in Valsa because of the high variability of morphological traits and in many cases the lack of the teleomorph. In this study, we delimitated species boundary for pathogens causing apple Valsa canker with a multifaceted approach. Based on three independent loci, the internal transcribed spacer (ITS), β-tubulin (Btu), and translation elongation factor-1 alpha (EF1α), we inferred gene trees with both maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, estimated species tree with Bayesian multispecies coalescent approaches, and validated species tree with Bayesian species delimitation. Through divergence time estimation and ancestral host reconstruction, we tested the possible underlying mechanisms for fungal speciation and host-range change. Our results proved that two varieties of the former morphological species V. mali represented two distinct species, V. mali and V. pyri, which diverged about 5 million years ago, much later than the divergence of their preferred hosts, excluding a scenario of fungi–host co-speciation. The marked different thermal preferences and contrasting pathogenicity in cross-inoculation suggest ecological divergences between the two species. Apple was the most likely ancestral host for both V. mali and V. pyri. Host-range expansion led to the occurrence of V. pyri on both pear and apple. Our results also represent an example in which ITS data might underestimate species diversity. PMID:24834333

Analyses of amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLP) indicate rapid radiation of Diospyros species (Ebenaceae) endemic to New Caledonia

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Radiation in some plant groups has occurred on islands and due to the characteristic rapid pace of phenotypic evolution, standard molecular markers often provide insufficient variation for phylogenetic reconstruction. To resolve relationships within a clade of 21 closely related New Caledonian Diospyros species and evaluate species boundaries we analysed genome-wide DNA variation via amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLP). Results A neighbour-joining (NJ) dendrogram based on Dice distances shows all species except D. minimifolia, D. parviflora and D. vieillardii to form unique clusters of genetically similar accessions. However, there was little variation between these species clusters, resulting in unresolved species relationships and a star-like general NJ topology. Correspondingly, analyses of molecular variance showed more variation within species than between them. A Bayesian analysis with BEAST produced a similar result. Another Bayesian method, this time a clustering method, Structure, demonstrated the presence of two groups, highly congruent with those observed in a principal coordinate analysis (PCO). Molecular divergence between the two groups is low and does not correspond to any hypothesised taxonomic, ecological or geographical patterns. Conclusions We hypothesise that such a pattern could have been produced by rapid and complex evolution involving a widespread progenitor for which an initial split into two groups was followed by subsequent fragmentation into many diverging populations, which was followed by range expansion of then divergent entities. Overall, this process resulted in an opportunistic pattern of phenotypic diversification. The time since divergence was probably insufficient for some species to become genetically well-differentiated, resulting in progenitor/derivative relationships being exhibited in a few cases. In other cases, our analyses may have revealed evidence for the existence of cryptic species, for which more study of morphology and ecology are now required. PMID:24330478

Molecular phylogenetic analysis of the Persea group (Lauraceae) and its biogeographic implications on the evolution of tropical and subtropical Amphi-Pacific disjunctions.

PubMed

Li, Lang; Li, Jie; Rohwer, Jens G; van der Werff, Henk; Wang, Zhi-Hua; Li, Hsi-Wen

2011-09-01

The Persea group (Lauraceae) has a tropical and subtropical amphi-pacific disjunct distribution with most of its members, and it includes two Macaronesian species. The relationships within the group are still controversial, and its intercontinental disjunction has not been investigated with extensive sampling and precise time dating. • ITS and LEAFY intron II sequences of 78 Persea group species and nine other Lauraceae species were analyzed with maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference. Divergence time estimation employed Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method under a relaxed clock. • Several traditional genera or subgenera within the Persea group form well-supported monophyletic groups except Alseodaphne and Dehaasia. The divergence time of the Persea group is estimated as ∼55.3 (95% higher posterior densities [HPD] 41.4-69.9) million years ago (mya). Two major divergences within the Persea group are estimated as ∼51.9 (95% HPD 38.9-63.9) mya and ∼48.5 (95% HPD 35.9-59.9) mya. • Persea can be retained as a genus by the inclusion of Apollonias barbujana and exclusion a few species that do not fit into the established subgenera. A major revision is recommended for the delimitation between Alseodaphne, Dehaasia, and Nothaphoebe. We suggest that the Persea group originated from the Perseeae-Laureae radiation in early Eocene Laurasia. Its amphi-pacific disjunction results from the disruption of boreotropical flora by climatic cooling during the mid- to late Eocene. The American-Macaronesian disjunction may be explained by the long-distance dispersal.

Dynamic Bayesian Networks as a Probabilistic Metamodel for Combat Simulations

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-18

test is commonly used for large data sets and is the method of comparison presented in Section 5.5. 4.3.3 Kullback - Leibler Divergence Goodness of Fit ...methods exist that might improve the results. A goodness of fit test using the Kullback - Leibler Divergence was proposed in the first paper, but still... Kullback - Leibler Divergence Goodness of Fit Test . . .

Phylogeography on the rocks: The contribution of current and historical factors in shaping the genetic structure of Chthamalus montagui (Crustacea, Cirripedia).

PubMed

Pannacciulli, Federica G; Maltagliati, Ferruccio; de Guttry, Christian; Achituv, Yair

2017-01-01

The model marine broadcast-spawner barnacle Chthamalus montagui was investigated to understand its genetic structure and quantify levels of population divergence, and to make inference on historical demography in terms of time of divergence and changes in population size. We collected specimens from rocky shores of the north-east Atlantic Ocean (4 locations), Mediterranean Sea (8) and Black Sea (1). The 312 sequences 537 bp) of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I allowed to detect 130 haplotypes. High within-location genetic variability was recorded, with haplotype diversity ranging between h = 0.750 and 0.967. Parameters of genetic divergence, haplotype network and Bayesian assignment analysis were consistent in rejecting the hypothesis of panmixia. C. montagui is genetically structured in three geographically discrete populations, which corresponded to north-eastern Atlantic Ocean, western-central Mediterranean Sea, and Aegean Sea-Black Sea. These populations are separated by two main effective barriers to gene flow located at the Almeria-Oran Front and in correspondence of the Cyclades Islands. According to the 'isolation with migration' model, adjacent population pairs diverged during the early to middle Pleistocene transition, a period in which geological events provoked significant changes in the structure and composition of palaeocommunities. Mismatch distributions, neutrality tests and Bayesian skyline plots showed past population expansions, which started approximately in the Mindel-Riss interglacial, in which ecological conditions were favourable for temperate species and calcium-uptaking marine organisms.

Phylogeography on the rocks: The contribution of current and historical factors in shaping the genetic structure of Chthamalus montagui (Crustacea, Cirripedia)

PubMed Central

Pannacciulli, Federica G.; de Guttry, Christian; Achituv, Yair

2017-01-01

The model marine broadcast-spawner barnacle Chthamalus montagui was investigated to understand its genetic structure and quantify levels of population divergence, and to make inference on historical demography in terms of time of divergence and changes in population size. We collected specimens from rocky shores of the north-east Atlantic Ocean (4 locations), Mediterranean Sea (8) and Black Sea (1). The 312 sequences 537 bp) of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I allowed to detect 130 haplotypes. High within-location genetic variability was recorded, with haplotype diversity ranging between h = 0.750 and 0.967. Parameters of genetic divergence, haplotype network and Bayesian assignment analysis were consistent in rejecting the hypothesis of panmixia. C. montagui is genetically structured in three geographically discrete populations, which corresponded to north-eastern Atlantic Ocean, western-central Mediterranean Sea, and Aegean Sea-Black Sea. These populations are separated by two main effective barriers to gene flow located at the Almeria-Oran Front and in correspondence of the Cyclades Islands. According to the ‘isolation with migration’ model, adjacent population pairs diverged during the early to middle Pleistocene transition, a period in which geological events provoked significant changes in the structure and composition of palaeocommunities. Mismatch distributions, neutrality tests and Bayesian skyline plots showed past population expansions, which started approximately in the Mindel-Riss interglacial, in which ecological conditions were favourable for temperate species and calcium-uptaking marine organisms. PMID:28594840

A multilocus evaluation of ermine (Mustela erminea) across the Holarctic, testing hypotheses of Pleistocene diversification in response to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dawson, Natalie G.; Hope, Andrew G.; Talbot, Sandra L.; Cook, Joseph A.

2013-01-01

Aim: We examined data for ermine (Mustela erminea) to test two sets of diversification hypotheses concerning the number and location of late Pleistocene refugia, the timing and mode of diversification, and the evolutionary influence of insularization. Location: Temperate and sub-Arctic Northern Hemisphere. Methods: We used up to two mitochondrial and four nuclear loci from 237 specimens for statistical phylogeographical and demographic analyses. Coalescent species-tree estimation used a Bayesian approach for clade divergence based on external mutation rate calibrations. Approximate Bayesian methods were used to assess population size, timing of divergence and gene flow. Results: Limited structure coupled with evidence of population growth across broad regions, including previously ice-covered areas, indicated expansion from multiple centres of differentiation, but high endemism along the North Pacific coast (NPC). A bifurcating model of diversification with recent growth spanning three glacial cycles best explained the empirical data. Main conclusions: A newly identified clade in North America indicated a fourth refugial area for ermine. The shallow coalescence of all extant ermine reflects a recent history of diversification overlying a deeper fossil record. Post-glacial colonization has led to potential contact zones for multiple lineages in north-western North America. A model of diversification of ermine accompanied by recent gene flow was marginally less well supported than a model of divergence of major clades in response to the most recent glacial cycles.

Fossils matter: improved estimates of divergence times in Pinus reveal older diversification.

PubMed

Saladin, Bianca; Leslie, Andrew B; Wüest, Rafael O; Litsios, Glenn; Conti, Elena; Salamin, Nicolas; Zimmermann, Niklaus E

2017-04-04

The taxonomy of pines (genus Pinus) is widely accepted and a robust gene tree based on entire plastome sequences exists. However, there is a large discrepancy in estimated divergence times of major pine clades among existing studies, mainly due to differences in fossil placement and dating methods used. We currently lack a dated molecular phylogeny that makes use of the rich pine fossil record, and this study is the first to estimate the divergence dates of pines based on a large number of fossils (21) evenly distributed across all major clades, in combination with applying both node and tip dating methods. We present a range of molecular phylogenetic trees of Pinus generated within a Bayesian framework. We find the origin of crown Pinus is likely up to 30 Myr older (Early Cretaceous) than inferred in most previous studies (Late Cretaceous) and propose generally older divergence times for major clades within Pinus than previously thought. Our age estimates vary significantly between the different dating approaches, but the results generally agree on older divergence times. We present a revised list of 21 fossils that are suitable to use in dating or comparative analyses of pines. Reliable estimates of divergence times in pines are essential if we are to link diversification processes and functional adaptation of this genus to geological events or to changing climates. In addition to older divergence times in Pinus, our results also indicate that node age estimates in pines depend on dating approaches and the specific fossil sets used, reflecting inherent differences in various dating approaches. The sets of dated phylogenetic trees of pines presented here provide a way to account for uncertainties in age estimations when applying comparative phylogenetic methods.

Understanding Short-Term Nonmigrating Tidal Variability in the Ionospheric Dynamo Region from SABER Using Information Theory and Bayesian Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumari, K.; Oberheide, J.

2017-12-01

Nonmigrating tidal diagnostics of SABER temperature observations in the ionospheric dynamo region reveal a large amount of variability on time-scales of a few days to weeks. In this paper, we discuss the physical reasons for the observed short-term tidal variability using a novel approach based on Information theory and Bayesian statistics. We diagnose short-term tidal variability as a function of season, QBO, ENSO, and solar cycle and other drivers using time dependent probability density functions, Shannon entropy and Kullback-Leibler divergence. The statistical significance of the approach and its predictive capability is exemplified using SABER tidal diagnostics with emphasis on the responses to the QBO and solar cycle. Implications for F-region plasma density will be discussed.

Phylogenetic Analyses: A Toolbox Expanding towards Bayesian Methods

PubMed Central

Aris-Brosou, Stéphane; Xia, Xuhua

2008-01-01

The reconstruction of phylogenies is becoming an increasingly simple activity. This is mainly due to two reasons: the democratization of computing power and the increased availability of sophisticated yet user-friendly software. This review describes some of the latest additions to the phylogenetic toolbox, along with some of their theoretical and practical limitations. It is shown that Bayesian methods are under heavy development, as they offer the possibility to solve a number of long-standing issues and to integrate several steps of the phylogenetic analyses into a single framework. Specific topics include not only phylogenetic reconstruction, but also the comparison of phylogenies, the detection of adaptive evolution, and the estimation of divergence times between species. PMID:18483574

Testing the molecular clock using mechanistic models of fossil preservation and molecular evolution

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Molecular sequence data provide information about relative times only, and fossil-based age constraints are the ultimate source of information about absolute times in molecular clock dating analyses. Thus, fossil calibrations are critical to molecular clock dating, but competing methods are difficult to evaluate empirically because the true evolutionary time scale is never known. Here, we combine mechanistic models of fossil preservation and sequence evolution in simulations to evaluate different approaches to constructing fossil calibrations and their impact on Bayesian molecular clock dating, and the relative impact of fossil versus molecular sampling. We show that divergence time estimation is impacted by the model of fossil preservation, sampling intensity and tree shape. The addition of sequence data may improve molecular clock estimates, but accuracy and precision is dominated by the quality of the fossil calibrations. Posterior means and medians are poor representatives of true divergence times; posterior intervals provide a much more accurate estimate of divergence times, though they may be wide and often do not have high coverage probability. Our results highlight the importance of increased fossil sampling and improved statistical approaches to generating calibrations, which should incorporate the non-uniform nature of ecological and temporal fossil species distributions. PMID:28637852

Phylogeography of the Central American lancehead Bothrops asper (SERPENTES: VIPERIDAE)

PubMed Central

Parkinson, Christopher L.; Daza, Juan M.; Wüster, Wolfgang

2017-01-01

The uplift and final connection of the Central American land bridge is considered the major event that allowed biotic exchange between vertebrate lineages of northern and southern origin in the New World. However, given the complex tectonics that shaped Middle America, there is still substantial controversy over details of this geographical reconnection, and its role in determining biogeographic patterns in the region. Here, we examine the phylogeography of Bothrops asper, a widely distributed pitviper in Middle America and northwestern South America, in an attempt to evaluate how the final Isthmian uplift and other biogeographical boundaries in the region influenced genealogical lineage divergence in this species. We examined sequence data from two mitochondrial genes (MT-CYB and MT-ND4) from 111 specimens of B. asper, representing 70 localities throughout the species’ distribution. We reconstructed phylogeographic patterns using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods and estimated divergence time using the Bayesian relaxed clock method. Within the nominal species, an early split led to two divergent lineages of B. asper: one includes five phylogroups distributed in Caribbean Middle America and southwestern Ecuador, and the other comprises five other groups scattered in the Pacific slope of Isthmian Central America and northwestern South America. Our results provide evidence of a complex transition that involves at least two dispersal events into Middle America during the final closure of the Isthmus. PMID:29176806

Phylogeography of the Central American lancehead Bothrops asper (SERPENTES: VIPERIDAE).

PubMed

Saldarriaga-Córdoba, Mónica; Parkinson, Christopher L; Daza, Juan M; Wüster, Wolfgang; Sasa, Mahmood

2017-01-01

The uplift and final connection of the Central American land bridge is considered the major event that allowed biotic exchange between vertebrate lineages of northern and southern origin in the New World. However, given the complex tectonics that shaped Middle America, there is still substantial controversy over details of this geographical reconnection, and its role in determining biogeographic patterns in the region. Here, we examine the phylogeography of Bothrops asper, a widely distributed pitviper in Middle America and northwestern South America, in an attempt to evaluate how the final Isthmian uplift and other biogeographical boundaries in the region influenced genealogical lineage divergence in this species. We examined sequence data from two mitochondrial genes (MT-CYB and MT-ND4) from 111 specimens of B. asper, representing 70 localities throughout the species' distribution. We reconstructed phylogeographic patterns using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods and estimated divergence time using the Bayesian relaxed clock method. Within the nominal species, an early split led to two divergent lineages of B. asper: one includes five phylogroups distributed in Caribbean Middle America and southwestern Ecuador, and the other comprises five other groups scattered in the Pacific slope of Isthmian Central America and northwestern South America. Our results provide evidence of a complex transition that involves at least two dispersal events into Middle America during the final closure of the Isthmus.

Phylogenetic relationships and evolutionary history of the Mesoamerican endemic freshwater fish family Profundulidae (Cyprinodontiformes: Actinopterygii).

PubMed

Morcillo, Felipe; Ornelas-García, Claudia Patricia; Alcaraz, Lourdes; Matamoros, Wilfredo A; Doadrio, Ignacio

2016-01-01

Freshwater fishes of Profundulidae, which until now was composed of two subgenera, represent one of the few extant fish families endemic to Mesoamerica. In this study we investigated the phylogenetic relationships and evolutionary history of the eight recognized extant species (from 37 populations) of Profundulidae using three mitochondrial and one nuclear gene markers (∼2.9 Kbp). We applied a Bayesian species delimitation method as a first approach to resolving speciation patterns within Profundulidae considering two different scenarios, eight-species and twelve-species models, obtained in a previous phylogenetic analysis. Based on our results, each of the two subgenera was resolved as monophyletic, with a remarkable molecular divergence of 24.5% for mtDNA and 7.8% for nDNA uncorrected p distances, and thus we propose that they correspond to separate genera. Moreover, we propose a conservative taxonomic hypothesis with five species within Profundulus and three within Tlaloc, although both eight-species and twelve-species models were highly supported by the bayesian species delimitation analysis, providing additional evidence of higher taxonomic diversity than currently recognized in this family. According to our divergence time estimates, the family originated during the Upper Oligocene 26 Mya, and Profundulus and Tlaloc diverged in the Upper Oligocene or Lower Miocene about 20 Mya. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cultural and climatic changes shape the evolutionary history of the Uralic languages.

PubMed

Honkola, T; Vesakoski, O; Korhonen, K; Lehtinen, J; Syrjänen, K; Wahlberg, N

2013-06-01

Quantitative phylogenetic methods have been used to study the evolutionary relationships and divergence times of biological species, and recently, these have also been applied to linguistic data to elucidate the evolutionary history of language families. In biology, the factors driving macroevolutionary processes are assumed to be either mainly biotic (the Red Queen model) or mainly abiotic (the Court Jester model) or a combination of both. The applicability of these models is assumed to depend on the temporal and spatial scale observed as biotic factors act on species divergence faster and in smaller spatial scale than the abiotic factors. Here, we used the Uralic language family to investigate whether both 'biotic' interactions (i.e. cultural interactions) and abiotic changes (i.e. climatic fluctuations) are also connected to language diversification. We estimated the times of divergence using Bayesian phylogenetics with a relaxed-clock method and related our results to climatic, historical and archaeological information. Our timing results paralleled the previous linguistic studies but suggested a later divergence of Finno-Ugric, Finnic and Saami languages. Some of the divergences co-occurred with climatic fluctuation and some with cultural interaction and migrations of populations. Thus, we suggest that both 'biotic' and abiotic factors contribute either directly or indirectly to the diversification of languages and that both models can be applied when studying language evolution. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2013 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

A Bayesian framework to estimate diversification rates and their variation through time and space

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Patterns of species diversity are the result of speciation and extinction processes, and molecular phylogenetic data can provide valuable information to derive their variability through time and across clades. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods offer a promising framework to incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty when estimating rates of diversification. Results We introduce a new approach to estimate diversification rates in a Bayesian framework over a distribution of trees under various constant and variable rate birth-death and pure-birth models, and test it on simulated phylogenies. Furthermore, speciation and extinction rates and their posterior credibility intervals can be estimated while accounting for non-random taxon sampling. The framework is particularly suitable for hypothesis testing using Bayes factors, as we demonstrate analyzing dated phylogenies of Chondrostoma (Cyprinidae) and Lupinus (Fabaceae). In addition, we develop a model that extends the rate estimation to a meta-analysis framework in which different data sets are combined in a single analysis to detect general temporal and spatial trends in diversification. Conclusions Our approach provides a flexible framework for the estimation of diversification parameters and hypothesis testing while simultaneously accounting for uncertainties in the divergence times and incomplete taxon sampling. PMID:22013891

Genomics of the divergence continuum in an African plant biodiversity hotspot, I: drivers of population divergence in Restio capensis (Restionaceae).

PubMed

Lexer, C; Wüest, R O; Mangili, S; Heuertz, M; Stölting, K N; Pearman, P B; Forest, F; Salamin, N; Zimmermann, N E; Bossolini, E

2014-09-01

Understanding the drivers of population divergence, speciation and species persistence is of great interest to molecular ecology, especially for species-rich radiations inhabiting the world's biodiversity hotspots. The toolbox of population genomics holds great promise for addressing these key issues, especially if genomic data are analysed within a spatially and ecologically explicit context. We have studied the earliest stages of the divergence continuum in the Restionaceae, a species-rich and ecologically important plant family of the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) of South Africa, using the widespread CFR endemic Restio capensis (L.) H.P. Linder & C.R. Hardy as an example. We studied diverging populations of this morphotaxon for plastid DNA sequences and >14 400 nuclear DNA polymorphisms from Restriction site Associated DNA (RAD) sequencing and analysed the results jointly with spatial, climatic and phytogeographic data, using a Bayesian generalized linear mixed modelling (GLMM) approach. The results indicate that population divergence across the extreme environmental mosaic of the CFR is mostly driven by isolation by environment (IBE) rather than isolation by distance (IBD) for both neutral and non-neutral markers, consistent with genome hitchhiking or coupling effects during early stages of divergence. Mixed modelling of plastid DNA and single divergent outlier loci from a Bayesian genome scan confirmed the predominant role of climate and pointed to additional drivers of divergence, such as drift and ecological agents of selection captured by phytogeographic zones. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of population genomics for disentangling the effects of IBD and IBE along the divergence continuum often found in species radiations across heterogeneous ecological landscapes. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bayesian or Laplacien inference, entropy and information theory and information geometry in data and signal processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammad-Djafari, Ali

2015-01-01

The main object of this tutorial article is first to review the main inference tools using Bayesian approach, Entropy, Information theory and their corresponding geometries. This review is focused mainly on the ways these tools have been used in data, signal and image processing. After a short introduction of the different quantities related to the Bayes rule, the entropy and the Maximum Entropy Principle (MEP), relative entropy and the Kullback-Leibler divergence, Fisher information, we will study their use in different fields of data and signal processing such as: entropy in source separation, Fisher information in model order selection, different Maximum Entropy based methods in time series spectral estimation and finally, general linear inverse problems.

Notes on the birth-death prior with fossil calibrations for Bayesian estimation of species divergence times.

PubMed

Dos Reis, Mario

2016-07-19

Constructing a multi-dimensional prior on the times of divergence (the node ages) of species in a phylogeny is not a trivial task, in particular, if the prior density is the result of combining different sources of information such as a speciation process with fossil calibration densities. Yang & Rannala (2006 Mol. Biol. Evol 23, 212-226. (doi:10.1093/molbev/msj024)) laid out the general approach to combine the birth-death process with arbitrary fossil-based densities to construct a prior on divergence times. They achieved this by calculating the density of node ages without calibrations conditioned on the ages of the calibrated nodes. Here, I show that the conditional density obtained by Yang & Rannala is misspecified. The misspecified density can sometimes be quite strange-looking and can lead to unintentionally informative priors on node ages without fossil calibrations. I derive the correct density and provide a few illustrative examples. Calculation of the density involves a sum over a large set of labelled histories, and so obtaining the density in a computer program seems hard at the moment. A general algorithm that may provide a way forward is given.This article is part of the themed issue 'Dating species divergences using rocks and clocks'. © 2016 The Author(s).

The influence of ignoring secondary structure on divergence time estimates from ribosomal RNA genes.

PubMed

Dohrmann, Martin

2014-02-01

Genes coding for ribosomal RNA molecules (rDNA) are among the most popular markers in molecular phylogenetics and evolution. However, coevolution of sites that code for pairing regions (stems) in the RNA secondary structure can make it challenging to obtain accurate results from such loci. While the influence of ignoring secondary structure on multiple sequence alignment and tree topology has been investigated in numerous studies, its effect on molecular divergence time estimates is still poorly known. Here, I investigate this issue in Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (BMCMC) and penalized likelihood (PL) frameworks, using empirical datasets from dragonflies (Odonata: Anisoptera) and glass sponges (Porifera: Hexactinellida). My results indicate that highly biased inferences under substitution models that ignore secondary structure only occur if maximum-likelihood estimates of branch lengths are used as input to PL dating, whereas in a BMCMC framework and in PL dating based on Bayesian consensus branch lengths, the effect is far less severe. I conclude that accounting for coevolution of paired sites in molecular dating studies is not as important as previously suggested, as long as the estimates are based on Bayesian consensus branch lengths instead of ML point estimates. This finding is especially relevant for studies where computational limitations do not allow the use of secondary-structure specific substitution models, or where accurate consensus structures cannot be predicted. I also found that the magnitude and direction (over- vs. underestimating node ages) of bias in age estimates when secondary structure is ignored was not distributed randomly across the nodes of the phylogenies, a phenomenon that requires further investigation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Potential for bias and low precision in molecular divergence time estimation of the Canopy of Life: an example from aquatic bird families

PubMed Central

van Tuinen, Marcel; Torres, Christopher R.

2015-01-01

Uncertainty in divergence time estimation is frequently studied from many angles but rarely from the perspective of phylogenetic node age. If appropriate molecular models and fossil priors are used, a multi-locus, partitioned analysis is expected to equally minimize error in accuracy and precision across all nodes of a given phylogeny. In contrast, if available models fail to completely account for rate heterogeneity, substitution saturation and incompleteness of the fossil record, uncertainty in divergence time estimation may increase with node age. While many studies have stressed this concern with regard to deep nodes in the Tree of Life, the inference that molecular divergence time estimation of shallow nodes is less sensitive to erroneous model choice has not been tested explicitly in a Bayesian framework. Because of available divergence time estimation methods that permit fossil priors across any phylogenetic node and the present increase in efficient, cheap collection of species-level genomic data, insight is needed into the performance of divergence time estimation of shallow (<10 MY) nodes. Here, we performed multiple sensitivity analyses in a multi-locus data set of aquatic birds with six fossil constraints. Comparison across divergence time analyses that varied taxon and locus sampling, number and position of fossil constraint and shape of prior distribution showed various insights. Deviation from node ages obtained from a reference analysis was generally highest for the shallowest nodes but determined more by temporal placement than number of fossil constraints. Calibration with only the shallowest nodes significantly underestimated the aquatic bird fossil record, indicating the presence of saturation. Although joint calibration with all six priors yielded ages most consistent with the fossil record, ages of shallow nodes were overestimated. This bias was found in both mtDNA and nDNA regions. Thus, divergence time estimation of shallow nodes may suffer from bias and low precision, even when appropriate fossil priors and best available substitution models are chosen. Much care must be taken to address the possible ramifications of substitution saturation across the entire Tree of Life. PMID:26106406

Adaptive statistical pattern classifiers for remotely sensed data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gonzalez, R. C.; Pace, M. O.; Raulston, H. S.

1975-01-01

A technique for the adaptive estimation of nonstationary statistics necessary for Bayesian classification is developed. The basic approach to the adaptive estimation procedure consists of two steps: (1) an optimal stochastic approximation of the parameters of interest and (2) a projection of the parameters in time or position. A divergence criterion is developed to monitor algorithm performance. Comparative results of adaptive and nonadaptive classifier tests are presented for simulated four dimensional spectral scan data.

Uncertainty in the Timing of Origin of Animals and the Limits of Precision in Molecular Timescales

PubMed Central

dos Reis, Mario; Thawornwattana, Yuttapong; Angelis, Konstantinos; Telford, Maximilian J.; Donoghue, Philip C.J.; Yang, Ziheng

2015-01-01

Summary The timing of divergences among metazoan lineages is integral to understanding the processes of animal evolution, placing the biological events of species divergences into the correct geological timeframe. Recent fossil discoveries and molecular clock dating studies have suggested a divergence of bilaterian phyla >100 million years before the Cambrian, when the first definite crown-bilaterian fossils occur. Most previous molecular clock dating studies, however, have suffered from limited data and biases in methodologies, and virtually all have failed to acknowledge the large uncertainties associated with the fossil record of early animals, leading to inconsistent estimates among studies. Here we use an unprecedented amount of molecular data, combined with four fossil calibration strategies (reflecting disparate and controversial interpretations of the metazoan fossil record) to obtain Bayesian estimates of metazoan divergence times. Our results indicate that the uncertain nature of ancient fossils and violations of the molecular clock impose a limit on the precision that can be achieved in estimates of ancient molecular timescales. For example, although we can assert that crown Metazoa originated during the Cryogenian (with most crown-bilaterian phyla diversifying during the Ediacaran), it is not possible with current data to pinpoint the divergence events with sufficient accuracy to test for correlations between geological and biological events in the history of animals. Although a Cryogenian origin of crown Metazoa agrees with current geological interpretations, the divergence dates of the bilaterians remain controversial. Thus, attempts to build evolutionary narratives of early animal evolution based on molecular clock timescales appear to be premature. PMID:26603774

Testing the molecular clock using mechanistic models of fossil preservation and molecular evolution.

PubMed

Warnock, Rachel C M; Yang, Ziheng; Donoghue, Philip C J

2017-06-28

Molecular sequence data provide information about relative times only, and fossil-based age constraints are the ultimate source of information about absolute times in molecular clock dating analyses. Thus, fossil calibrations are critical to molecular clock dating, but competing methods are difficult to evaluate empirically because the true evolutionary time scale is never known. Here, we combine mechanistic models of fossil preservation and sequence evolution in simulations to evaluate different approaches to constructing fossil calibrations and their impact on Bayesian molecular clock dating, and the relative impact of fossil versus molecular sampling. We show that divergence time estimation is impacted by the model of fossil preservation, sampling intensity and tree shape. The addition of sequence data may improve molecular clock estimates, but accuracy and precision is dominated by the quality of the fossil calibrations. Posterior means and medians are poor representatives of true divergence times; posterior intervals provide a much more accurate estimate of divergence times, though they may be wide and often do not have high coverage probability. Our results highlight the importance of increased fossil sampling and improved statistical approaches to generating calibrations, which should incorporate the non-uniform nature of ecological and temporal fossil species distributions. © 2017 The Authors.

Estimation of divergence from Hardy-Weinberg form.

PubMed

Stark, Alan E

2015-08-01

The Hardy–Weinberg (HW) principle explains how random mating (RM) can produce and maintain a population in equilibrium, that is, with constant genotypic proportions. When proportions diverge from HW form, it is of interest to estimate the fixation index F, which reflects the degree of divergence. Starting from a sample of genotypic counts, a mixed procedure gives first the orthodox estimate of gene frequency q and then a Bayesian estimate of F, based on a credible prior distribution of F, which is described here.

Functional Bregman Divergence and Bayesian Estimation of Distributions (Preprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

shows that if the set of possible minimizers A includes EPF [F ], then g∗ = EPF [F ] minimizes the expectation of any Bregman divergence. Note the theorem...probability distribution PF defined over the set M. Let A be a set of functions that includes EPF [F ] if it exists. Suppose the function g∗ minimizes...the expected Bregman divergence between the random function F and any function g ∈ A such that g∗ = arg inf g∈A EPF [dφ(F, g)]. Then, if g∗ exists

Mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequences support a Cretaceous origin of Columbiformes and a dispersal-driven radiation in the Paleocene .

PubMed

Pereira, Sergio L; Johnson, Kevin P; Clayton, Dale H; Baker, Allan J

2007-08-01

Phylogenetic relationships among genera of pigeons and doves (Aves, Columbiformes) have not been fully resolved because of limited sampling of taxa and characters in previous studies. We therefore sequenced multiple nuclear and mitochondrial DNA genes totaling over 9000 bp from 33 of 41 genera plus 8 outgroup taxa, and, together with sequences from 5 other pigeon genera retrieved from GenBank, recovered a strong phylogenetic hypothesis for the Columbiformes. Three major clades were recovered with the combined data set, comprising the basally branching New World pigeons and allies (clade A) that are sister to Neotropical ground doves (clade B), and the Afro-Eurasian and Australasian taxa (clade C). None of these clades supports the monophyly of current families and subfamilies. The extinct, flightless dodo and solitaires (Raphidae) were embedded within pigeons and doves (Columbidae) in clade C, and monophyly of the subfamily Columbinae was refuted because the remaining subfamilies were nested within it. Divergence times estimated using a Bayesian framework suggest that Columbiformes diverged from outgroups such as Apodiformes and Caprimulgiformes in the Cretaceous before the mass extinction that marks the end of this period. Bayesian and maximum likelihood inferences of ancestral areas, accounting for phylogenetic uncertainty and divergence times, respectively, favor an ancient origin of Columbiformes in the Neotropical portion of what was then Gondwana. The radiation of modern genera of Columbiformes started in the Early Eocene to the Middle Miocene, as previously estimated for other avian groups such as ratites, tinamous, galliform birds, penguins, shorebirds, parrots, passerine birds, and toucans. Multiple dispersals of more derived Columbiformes between Australasian and Afro-Eurasian regions are required to explain current distributions.

Genetic, Ecological and Morphological Divergence between Populations of the Endangered Mexican Sheartail Hummingbird (Doricha eliza)

PubMed Central

Licona-Vera, Yuyini; Ornelas, Juan Francisco

2014-01-01

The Mexican Sheartail (Doricha eliza), an endangered hummingbird, is endemic to Mexico where two populations have a disjunct distribution. One population is distributed along the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula whereas the other is mostly restricted to central Veracruz. Despite their disjunct distribution, previous work has failed to detect morphological or behavioral differences between these populations. Here we use variation in morphology, mtDNA and nuDNA sequences to determine the degree of morphological and molecular divergence between populations, their divergence time, and historical demography. We use species distribution modeling and niche divergence tests to infer the relative roles of vicariance and dispersal in driving divergence in the genus. Our Bayesian and maximum likelihood phylogenetic analyses revealed that Doricha eliza populations form a monophyletic clade and support their sister relationship with D. enicura. We found marked genetic differentiation, with reciprocal monophyly of haplotypes and highly restricted gene flow, supporting a history of isolation over the last 120,000 years. Genetic divergence between populations is consistent with the lack of overlap in environmental space and slight morphological differences between males. Our findings indicate that the divergence of the Veracruz and Yucatan populations is best explained by a combination of a short period of isolation exacerbated by subsequent divergence in climate conditions, and that rather than vicariance, the two isolated ranges of D. eliza are the product of recent colonization and divergence in isolation. PMID:24992589

Uncertainty Quantification using Exponential Epi-Splines

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

Leibler divergence. The choice of κ in applications can be informed by the fact that the Kullback - Leibler divergence between two normal densities, ϕ1... of ran- dom output quantities of interests. The framework systematically incorporates hard information derived from physics-based sensors, field test ... information , and determines the ‘best’ estimate within that family. Bayesian estima- tion makes use of prior soft information

Comparison of Bayesian clustering and edge detection methods for inferring boundaries in landscape genetics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Safner, T.; Miller, M.P.; McRae, B.H.; Fortin, M.-J.; Manel, S.

2011-01-01

Recently, techniques available for identifying clusters of individuals or boundaries between clusters using genetic data from natural populations have expanded rapidly. Consequently, there is a need to evaluate these different techniques. We used spatially-explicit simulation models to compare three spatial Bayesian clustering programs and two edge detection methods. Spatially-structured populations were simulated where a continuous population was subdivided by barriers. We evaluated the ability of each method to correctly identify boundary locations while varying: (i) time after divergence, (ii) strength of isolation by distance, (iii) level of genetic diversity, and (iv) amount of gene flow across barriers. To further evaluate the methods' effectiveness to detect genetic clusters in natural populations, we used previously published data on North American pumas and a European shrub. Our results show that with simulated and empirical data, the Bayesian spatial clustering algorithms outperformed direct edge detection methods. All methods incorrectly detected boundaries in the presence of strong patterns of isolation by distance. Based on this finding, we support the application of Bayesian spatial clustering algorithms for boundary detection in empirical datasets, with necessary tests for the influence of isolation by distance. ?? 2011 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.

Estimation of divergence times in cnidarian evolution based on mitochondrial protein-coding genes and the fossil record.

PubMed

Park, Eunji; Hwang, Dae-Sik; Lee, Jae-Seong; Song, Jun-Im; Seo, Tae-Kun; Won, Yong-Jin

2012-01-01

The phylum Cnidaria is comprised of remarkably diverse and ecologically significant taxa, such as the reef-forming corals, and occupies a basal position in metazoan evolution. The origin of this phylum and the most recent common ancestors (MRCAs) of its modern classes remain mostly unknown, although scattered fossil evidence provides some insights on this topic. Here, we investigate the molecular divergence times of the major taxonomic groups of Cnidaria (27 Hexacorallia, 16 Octocorallia, and 5 Medusozoa) on the basis of mitochondrial DNA sequences of 13 protein-coding genes. For this analysis, the complete mitochondrial genomes of seven octocoral and two scyphozoan species were newly sequenced and combined with all available mitogenomic data from GenBank. Five reliable fossil dates were used to calibrate the Bayesian estimates of divergence times. The molecular evidence suggests that cnidarians originated 741 million years ago (Ma) (95% credible region of 686-819), and the major taxa diversified prior to the Cambrian (543 Ma). The Octocorallia and Scleractinia may have originated from radiations of survivors of the Permian-Triassic mass extinction, which matches their fossil record well. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Demographic Divergence History of Pied Flycatcher and Collared Flycatcher Inferred from Whole-Genome Re-sequencing Data

PubMed Central

Nadachowska-Brzyska, Krystyna; Burri, Reto; Olason, Pall I.; Kawakami, Takeshi; Smeds, Linnéa; Ellegren, Hans

2013-01-01

Profound knowledge of demographic history is a prerequisite for the understanding and inference of processes involved in the evolution of population differentiation and speciation. Together with new coalescent-based methods, the recent availability of genome-wide data enables investigation of differentiation and divergence processes at unprecedented depth. We combined two powerful approaches, full Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis (ABC) and pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent modeling (PSMC), to reconstruct the demographic history of the split between two avian speciation model species, the pied flycatcher and collared flycatcher. Using whole-genome re-sequencing data from 20 individuals, we investigated 15 demographic models including different levels and patterns of gene flow, and changes in effective population size over time. ABC provided high support for recent (mode 0.3 my, range <0.7 my) species divergence, declines in effective population size of both species since their initial divergence, and unidirectional recent gene flow from pied flycatcher into collared flycatcher. The estimated divergence time and population size changes, supported by PSMC results, suggest that the ancestral species persisted through one of the glacial periods of middle Pleistocene and then split into two large populations that first increased in size before going through severe bottlenecks and expanding into their current ranges. Secondary contact appears to have been established after the last glacial maximum. The severity of the bottlenecks at the last glacial maximum is indicated by the discrepancy between current effective population sizes (20,000–80,000) and census sizes (5–50 million birds) of the two species. The recent divergence time challenges the supposition that avian speciation is a relatively slow process with extended times for intrinsic postzygotic reproductive barriers to evolve. Our study emphasizes the importance of using genome-wide data to unravel tangled demographic histories. Moreover, it constitutes one of the first examples of the inference of divergence history from genome-wide data in non-model species. PMID:24244198

Demographic divergence history of pied flycatcher and collared flycatcher inferred from whole-genome re-sequencing data.

PubMed

Nadachowska-Brzyska, Krystyna; Burri, Reto; Olason, Pall I; Kawakami, Takeshi; Smeds, Linnéa; Ellegren, Hans

2013-11-01

Profound knowledge of demographic history is a prerequisite for the understanding and inference of processes involved in the evolution of population differentiation and speciation. Together with new coalescent-based methods, the recent availability of genome-wide data enables investigation of differentiation and divergence processes at unprecedented depth. We combined two powerful approaches, full Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis (ABC) and pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent modeling (PSMC), to reconstruct the demographic history of the split between two avian speciation model species, the pied flycatcher and collared flycatcher. Using whole-genome re-sequencing data from 20 individuals, we investigated 15 demographic models including different levels and patterns of gene flow, and changes in effective population size over time. ABC provided high support for recent (mode 0.3 my, range <0.7 my) species divergence, declines in effective population size of both species since their initial divergence, and unidirectional recent gene flow from pied flycatcher into collared flycatcher. The estimated divergence time and population size changes, supported by PSMC results, suggest that the ancestral species persisted through one of the glacial periods of middle Pleistocene and then split into two large populations that first increased in size before going through severe bottlenecks and expanding into their current ranges. Secondary contact appears to have been established after the last glacial maximum. The severity of the bottlenecks at the last glacial maximum is indicated by the discrepancy between current effective population sizes (20,000-80,000) and census sizes (5-50 million birds) of the two species. The recent divergence time challenges the supposition that avian speciation is a relatively slow process with extended times for intrinsic postzygotic reproductive barriers to evolve. Our study emphasizes the importance of using genome-wide data to unravel tangled demographic histories. Moreover, it constitutes one of the first examples of the inference of divergence history from genome-wide data in non-model species.

Advances in Time Estimation Methods for Molecular Data.

PubMed

Kumar, Sudhir; Hedges, S Blair

2016-04-01

Molecular dating has become central to placing a temporal dimension on the tree of life. Methods for estimating divergence times have been developed for over 50 years, beginning with the proposal of molecular clock in 1962. We categorize the chronological development of these methods into four generations based on the timing of their origin. In the first generation approaches (1960s-1980s), a strict molecular clock was assumed to date divergences. In the second generation approaches (1990s), the equality of evolutionary rates between species was first tested and then a strict molecular clock applied to estimate divergence times. The third generation approaches (since ∼2000) account for differences in evolutionary rates across the tree by using a statistical model, obviating the need to assume a clock or to test the equality of evolutionary rates among species. Bayesian methods in the third generation require a specific or uniform prior on the speciation-process and enable the inclusion of uncertainty in clock calibrations. The fourth generation approaches (since 2012) allow rates to vary from branch to branch, but do not need prior selection of a statistical model to describe the rate variation or the specification of speciation model. With high accuracy, comparable to Bayesian approaches, and speeds that are orders of magnitude faster, fourth generation methods are able to produce reliable timetrees of thousands of species using genome scale data. We found that early time estimates from second generation studies are similar to those of third and fourth generation studies, indicating that methodological advances have not fundamentally altered the timetree of life, but rather have facilitated time estimation by enabling the inclusion of more species. Nonetheless, we feel an urgent need for testing the accuracy and precision of third and fourth generation methods, including their robustness to misspecification of priors in the analysis of large phylogenies and data sets. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Comparative Phylogeographic Analyses Illustrate the Complex Evolutionary History of Threatened Cloud Forests of Northern Mesoamerica

PubMed Central

Ornelas, Juan Francisco; Sosa, Victoria; Soltis, Douglas E.; Daza, Juan M.; González, Clementina; Soltis, Pamela S.; Gutiérrez-Rodríguez, Carla; de los Monteros, Alejandro Espinosa; Castoe, Todd A.; Bell, Charles; Ruiz-Sanchez, Eduardo

2013-01-01

Comparative phylogeography can elucidate the influence of historical events on current patterns of biodiversity and can identify patterns of co-vicariance among unrelated taxa that span the same geographic areas. Here we analyze temporal and spatial divergence patterns of cloud forest plant and animal species and relate them to the evolutionary history of naturally fragmented cloud forests–among the most threatened vegetation types in northern Mesoamerica. We used comparative phylogeographic analyses to identify patterns of co-vicariance in taxa that share geographic ranges across cloud forest habitats and to elucidate the influence of historical events on current patterns of biodiversity. We document temporal and spatial genetic divergence of 15 species (including seed plants, birds and rodents), and relate them to the evolutionary history of the naturally fragmented cloud forests. We used fossil-calibrated genealogies, coalescent-based divergence time inference, and estimates of gene flow to assess the permeability of putative barriers to gene flow. We also used the hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation (HABC) method implemented in the program msBayes to test simultaneous versus non-simultaneous divergence of the cloud forest lineages. Our results show shared phylogeographic breaks that correspond to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Los Tuxtlas, and the Chiapas Central Depression, with the Isthmus representing the most frequently shared break among taxa. However, dating analyses suggest that the phylogeographic breaks corresponding to the Isthmus occurred at different times in different taxa. Current divergence patterns are therefore consistent with the hypothesis of broad vicariance across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec derived from different mechanisms operating at different times. This study, coupled with existing data on divergence cloud forest species, indicates that the evolutionary history of contemporary cloud forest lineages is complex and often lineage-specific, and thus difficult to capture in a simple conservation strategy. PMID:23409165

On the occurrence of false positives in tests of migration under an isolation with migration model

PubMed Central

Hey, Jody; Chung, Yujin; Sethuraman, Arun

2015-01-01

The population genetic study of divergence is often done using a Bayesian genealogy sampler, like those implemented in IMa2 and related programs, and these analyses frequently include a likelihood-ratio test of the null hypothesis of no migration between populations. Cruickshank and Hahn (2014, Molecular Ecology, 23, 3133–3157) recently reported a high rate of false positive test results with IMa2 for data simulated with small numbers of loci under models with no migration and recent splitting times. We confirm these findings and discover that they are caused by a failure of the assumptions underlying likelihood ratio tests that arises when using marginal likelihoods for a subset of model parameters. We also show that for small data sets, with little divergence between samples from two populations, an excellent fit can often be found by a model with a low migration rate and recent splitting time and a model with a high migration rate and a deep splitting time. PMID:26456794

Phylogeny and divergence of the pinnipeds (Carnivora: Mammalia) assessed using a multigene dataset

PubMed Central

Higdon, Jeff W; Bininda-Emonds, Olaf RP; Beck, Robin MD; Ferguson, Steven H

2007-01-01

Background Phylogenetic comparative methods are often improved by complete phylogenies with meaningful branch lengths (e.g., divergence dates). This study presents a dated molecular supertree for all 34 world pinniped species derived from a weighted matrix representation with parsimony (MRP) supertree analysis of 50 gene trees, each determined under a maximum likelihood (ML) framework. Divergence times were determined by mapping the same sequence data (plus two additional genes) on to the supertree topology and calibrating the ML branch lengths against a range of fossil calibrations. We assessed the sensitivity of our supertree topology in two ways: 1) a second supertree with all mtDNA genes combined into a single source tree, and 2) likelihood-based supermatrix analyses. Divergence dates were also calculated using a Bayesian relaxed molecular clock with rate autocorrelation to test the sensitivity of our supertree results further. Results The resulting phylogenies all agreed broadly with recent molecular studies, in particular supporting the monophyly of Phocidae, Otariidae, and the two phocid subfamilies, as well as an Odobenidae + Otariidae sister relationship; areas of disagreement were limited to four more poorly supported regions. Neither the supertree nor supermatrix analyses supported the monophyly of the two traditional otariid subfamilies, supporting suggestions for the need for taxonomic revision in this group. Phocid relationships were similar to other recent studies and deeper branches were generally well-resolved. Halichoerus grypus was nested within a paraphyletic Pusa, although relationships within Phocina tend to be poorly supported. Divergence date estimates for the supertree were in good agreement with other studies and the available fossil record; however, the Bayesian relaxed molecular clock divergence date estimates were significantly older. Conclusion Our results join other recent studies and highlight the need for a re-evaluation of pinniped taxonomy, especially as regards the subfamilial classification of otariids and the generic nomenclature of Phocina. Even with the recent publication of new sequence data, the available genetic sequence information for several species, particularly those in Arctocephalus, remains very limited, especially for nuclear markers. However, resolution of parts of the tree will probably remain difficult, even with additional data, due to apparent rapid radiations. Our study addresses the lack of a recent pinniped phylogeny that includes all species and robust divergence dates for all nodes, and will therefore prove indispensable to comparative and macroevolutionary studies of this group of carnivores. PMID:17996107

The tale of a modern animal plague: Tracing the evolutionary history and determining the time-scale for foot and mouth disease virus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tully, Damien C.; Fares, Mario A.

2008-12-20

Despite significant advances made in the understanding of its epidemiology, foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) is among the most unexpected agricultural devastating plagues. While the disease manifests itself as seven immunologically distinct strains their origin, population dynamics, migration patterns and divergence times remain unknown. Herein we have assembled a comprehensive data set of gene sequences representing the global diversity of the disease and inferred the time-scale and evolutionary history for FMDV. Serotype-specific rates of evolution and divergence times were estimated using a Bayesian coalescent framework. We report that an ancient precursor FMDV gave rise to two major diversification eventsmore » spanning a relatively short interval of time. This radiation event is estimated to have taken place towards the end of the 17th and the beginning of the 18th century giving us the present circulating Euro-Asiatic and South African viral strains. Furthermore our results hint that Europe acted as a possible hub for the disease from where it successfully dispersed elsewhere via exploration and trading routes.« less

Deep phylogeographic divergence and cytonuclear discordance in the grasshopper Oedaleus decorus.

PubMed

Kindler, Eveline; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Heckel, Gerald

2012-11-01

The grasshopper Oedaleus decorus is a thermophilic insect with a large, mostly south-Palaearctic distribution range, stretching from the Mediterranean regions in Europe to Central-Asia and China. In this study, we analyzed the extent of phylogenetic divergence and the recent evolutionary history of the species based on 274 specimens from 26 localities across the distribution range in Europe. Phylogenetic relationships were determined using sequences of two mitochondrial loci (ctr, ND2) with neighbour-joining and Bayesian methods. Additionally, genetic differentiation was analyzed based on mitochondrial DNA and 11 microsatellite markers using F-statistics, model-free multivariate and model-based Bayesian clustering approaches. Phylogenetic analyses detected consistently two highly divergent, allopatrically distributed lineages within O. decorus. The divergence among these Western and Eastern lineages meeting in the region of the Alps was similar to the divergence of each lineage to the sister species O. asiaticus. Genetic differentiation for ctr was extremely high between Western and Eastern grasshopper populations (F(ct)=0.95). Microsatellite markers detected much lower but nevertheless very significant genetic structure among population samples. The nuclear data also demonstrated a case of cytonuclear discordance because the affiliation with mitochondrial lineages was incongruent in Northern Italy. Taken together these results provide evidence of an ancient separation within Oedaleus and either historical introgression of mtDNA among lineages and/or ongoing sex-specific gene flow in this grasshopper. Our study stresses the importance of multilocus approaches for unravelling the history and status of taxa of uncertain evolutionary divergence. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Diversification of Rice Yellow Mottle Virus and Related Viruses Spans the History of Agriculture from the Neolithic to the Present

PubMed Central

Fargette, Denis; Pinel-Galzi, Agnès; Sérémé, Drissa; Lacombe, Séverine; Hébrard, Eugénie; Traoré, Oumar; Konaté, Gnissa

2008-01-01

The mechanisms of evolution of plant viruses are being unraveled, yet the timescale of their evolution remains an enigma. To address this critical issue, the divergence time of plant viruses at the intra- and inter-specific levels was assessed. The time of the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of Rice yellow mottle virus (RYMV; genus Sobemovirus) was calculated by a Bayesian coalescent analysis of the coat protein sequences of 253 isolates collected between 1966 and 2006 from all over Africa. It is inferred that RYMV diversified approximately 200 years ago in Africa, i.e., centuries after rice was domesticated or introduced, and decades before epidemics were reported. The divergence time of sobemoviruses and viruses of related genera was subsequently assessed using the age of RYMV under a relaxed molecular clock for calibration. The divergence time between sobemoviruses and related viruses was estimated to be approximately 9,000 years, that between sobemoviruses and poleroviruses approximately 5,000 years, and that among sobemoviruses approximately 3,000 years. The TMRCA of closely related pairs of sobemoviruses, poleroviruses, and luteoviruses was approximately 500 years, which is a measure of the time associated with plant virus speciation. It is concluded that the diversification of RYMV and related viruses has spanned the history of agriculture, from the Neolithic age to the present. PMID:18704169

Models and simulation of 3D neuronal dendritic trees using Bayesian networks.

PubMed

López-Cruz, Pedro L; Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro; Benavides-Piccione, Ruth; DeFelipe, Javier

2011-12-01

Neuron morphology is crucial for neuronal connectivity and brain information processing. Computational models are important tools for studying dendritic morphology and its role in brain function. We applied a class of probabilistic graphical models called Bayesian networks to generate virtual dendrites from layer III pyramidal neurons from three different regions of the neocortex of the mouse. A set of 41 morphological variables were measured from the 3D reconstructions of real dendrites and their probability distributions used in a machine learning algorithm to induce the model from the data. A simulation algorithm is also proposed to obtain new dendrites by sampling values from Bayesian networks. The main advantage of this approach is that it takes into account and automatically locates the relationships between variables in the data instead of using predefined dependencies. Therefore, the methodology can be applied to any neuronal class while at the same time exploiting class-specific properties. Also, a Bayesian network was defined for each part of the dendrite, allowing the relationships to change in the different sections and to model heterogeneous developmental factors or spatial influences. Several univariate statistical tests and a novel multivariate test based on Kullback-Leibler divergence estimation confirmed that virtual dendrites were similar to real ones. The analyses of the models showed relationships that conform to current neuroanatomical knowledge and support model correctness. At the same time, studying the relationships in the models can help to identify new interactions between variables related to dendritic morphology.

A Bayesian Approach to Genome/Linguistic Relationships in Native South Americans

PubMed Central

Amorim, Carlos Eduardo Guerra; Bisso-Machado, Rafael; Ramallo, Virginia; Bortolini, Maria Cátira; Bonatto, Sandro Luis; Salzano, Francisco Mauro; Hünemeier, Tábita

2013-01-01

The relationship between the evolution of genes and languages has been studied for over three decades. These studies rely on the assumption that languages, as many other cultural traits, evolve in a gene-like manner, accumulating heritable diversity through time and being subjected to evolutionary mechanisms of change. In the present work we used genetic data to evaluate South American linguistic classifications. We compared discordant models of language classifications to the current Native American genome-wide variation using realistic demographic models analyzed under an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework. Data on 381 STRs spread along the autosomes were gathered from the literature for populations representing the five main South Amerindian linguistic groups: Andean, Arawakan, Chibchan-Paezan, Macro-Jê, and Tupí. The results indicated a higher posterior probability for the classification proposed by J.H. Greenberg in 1987, although L. Campbell's 1997 classification cannot be ruled out. Based on Greenberg's classification, it was possible to date the time of Tupí-Arawakan divergence (2.8 kya), and the time of emergence of the structure between present day major language groups in South America (3.1 kya). PMID:23696865

A bayesian approach to genome/linguistic relationships in native South Americans.

PubMed

Amorim, Carlos Eduardo Guerra; Bisso-Machado, Rafael; Ramallo, Virginia; Bortolini, Maria Cátira; Bonatto, Sandro Luis; Salzano, Francisco Mauro; Hünemeier, Tábita

2013-01-01

The relationship between the evolution of genes and languages has been studied for over three decades. These studies rely on the assumption that languages, as many other cultural traits, evolve in a gene-like manner, accumulating heritable diversity through time and being subjected to evolutionary mechanisms of change. In the present work we used genetic data to evaluate South American linguistic classifications. We compared discordant models of language classifications to the current Native American genome-wide variation using realistic demographic models analyzed under an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework. Data on 381 STRs spread along the autosomes were gathered from the literature for populations representing the five main South Amerindian linguistic groups: Andean, Arawakan, Chibchan-Paezan, Macro-Jê, and Tupí. The results indicated a higher posterior probability for the classification proposed by J.H. Greenberg in 1987, although L. Campbell's 1997 classification cannot be ruled out. Based on Greenberg's classification, it was possible to date the time of Tupí-Arawakan divergence (2.8 kya), and the time of emergence of the structure between present day major language groups in South America (3.1 kya).

Divergence times and the evolution of morphological complexity in an early land plant lineage (Marchantiopsida) with a slow molecular rate.

PubMed

Villarreal A, Juan Carlos; Crandall-Stotler, Barbara J; Hart, Michelle L; Long, David G; Forrest, Laura L

2016-03-01

We present a complete generic-level phylogeny of the complex thalloid liverworts, a lineage that includes the model system Marchantia polymorpha. The complex thalloids are remarkable for their slow rate of molecular evolution and for being the only extant plant lineage to differentiate gas exchange tissues in the gametophyte generation. We estimated the divergence times and analyzed the evolutionary trends of morphological traits, including air chambers, rhizoids and specialized reproductive structures. A multilocus dataset was analyzed using maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. Relative rates were estimated using local clocks. Our phylogeny cements the early branching in complex thalloids. Marchantia is supported in one of the earliest divergent lineages. The rate of evolution in organellar loci is slower than for other liverwort lineages, except for two annual lineages. Most genera diverged in the Cretaceous. Marchantia polymorpha diversified in the Late Miocene, giving a minimum age estimate for the evolution of its sex chromosomes. The complex thalloid ancestor, excluding Blasiales, is reconstructed as a plant with a carpocephalum, with filament-less air chambers opening via compound pores, and without pegged rhizoids. Our comprehensive study of the group provides a temporal framework for the analysis of the evolution of critical traits essential for plants during land colonization. © 2015 Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Phylogeographic patterns of genetic diversity in eastern Mediterranean water frogs have been determined by geological processes and climate change in the Late Cenozoic.

PubMed

Akın, Ciğdem; Bilgin, C Can; Beerli, Peter; Westaway, Rob; Ohst, Torsten; Litvinchuk, Spartak N; Uzzell, Thomas; Bilgin, Metin; Hotz, Hansjürg; Guex, Gaston-Denis; Plötner, Jörg

2010-11-01

AIM: Our aims were to assess the phylogeographic patterns of genetic diversity in eastern Mediterranean water frogs and to estimate divergence times using different geological scenarios. We related divergence times to past geological events and discuss the relevance of our data for the systematics of eastern Mediterranean water frogs. LOCATION: The eastern Mediterranean region. METHODS: Genetic diversity and divergence were calculated using sequences of two protein-coding mitochondrial (mt) genes: ND2 (1038 bp, 119 sequences) and ND3 (340 bp, 612 sequences). Divergence times were estimated in a Bayesian framework under four geological scenarios representing alternative possible geological histories for the eastern Mediterranean. We then compared the different scenarios using Bayes factors and additional geological data. RESULTS: Extensive genetic diversity in mtDNA divides eastern Mediterranean water frogs into six main haplogroups (MHG). Three MHGs were identified on the Anatolian mainland; the most widespread MHG with the highest diversity is distributed from western Anatolia to the northern shore of the Caspian Sea, including the type locality of Pelophylax ridibundus. The other two Anatolian MHGs are restricted to south-eastern Turkey, occupying localities west and east of the Amanos mountain range. One of the remaining three MHGs is restricted to Cyprus; a second to the Levant; the third was found in the distribution area of European lake frogs (P. ridibundus group), including the Balkans. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Based on geological evidence and estimates of genetic divergence we hypothesize that the water frogs of Cyprus have been isolated from the Anatolian mainland populations since the end of the Messinian salinity crisis (MSC), i.e. since c. 5.5-5.3 Ma, while our divergence time estimates indicate that the isolation of Crete from the mainland populations (Peloponnese, Anatolia) most likely pre-dates the MSC. The observed rates of divergence imply a time window of c. 1.6-1.1 million years for diversification of the largest Anatolian MHG; divergence between the two other Anatolian MHGs may have begun about 3.0 Ma, apparently as a result of uplift of the Amanos Mountains. Our mtDNA data suggest that the Anatolian water frogs and frogs from Cyprus represent several undescribed species.

The Past Sure is Tense: On Interpreting Phylogenetic Divergence Time Estimates.

PubMed

Brown, Joseph W; Smith, Stephen A

2018-03-01

Divergence time estimation-the calibration of a phylogeny to geological time-is an integral first step in modeling the tempo of biological evolution (traits and lineages). However, despite increasingly sophisticated methods to infer divergence times from molecular genetic sequences, the estimated age of many nodes across the tree of life contrast significantly and consistently with timeframes conveyed by the fossil record. This is perhaps best exemplified by crown angiosperms, where molecular clock (Triassic) estimates predate the oldest (Early Cretaceous) undisputed angiosperm fossils by tens of millions of years or more. While the incompleteness of the fossil record is a common concern, issues of data limitation and model inadequacy are viable (if underexplored) alternative explanations. In this vein, Beaulieu et al. (2015) convincingly demonstrated how methods of divergence time inference can be misled by both (i) extreme state-dependent molecular substitution rate heterogeneity and (ii) biased sampling of representative major lineages. These results demonstrate the impact of (potentially common) model violations. Here, we suggest another potential challenge: that the configuration of the statistical inference problem (i.e., the parameters, their relationships, and associated priors) alone may preclude the reconstruction of the paleontological timeframe for the crown age of angiosperms. We demonstrate, through sampling from the joint prior (formed by combining the tree (diversification) prior with the calibration densities specified for fossil-calibrated nodes) that with no data present at all, that an Early Cretaceous crown angiosperms is rejected (i.e., has essentially zero probability). More worrisome, however, is that for the 24 nodes calibrated by fossils, almost all have indistinguishable marginal prior and posterior age distributions when employing routine lognormal fossil calibration priors. These results indicate that there is inadequate information in the data to over-rule the joint prior. Given that these calibrated nodes are strategically placed in disparate regions of the tree, they act to anchor the tree scaffold, and so the posterior inference for the tree as a whole is largely determined by the pseudodata present in the (often arbitrary) calibration densities. We recommend, as for any Bayesian analysis, that marginal prior and posterior distributions be carefully compared to determine whether signal is coming from the data or prior belief, especially for parameters of direct interest. This recommendation is not novel. However, given how rarely such checks are carried out in evolutionary biology, it bears repeating. Our results demonstrate the fundamental importance of prior/posterior comparisons in any Bayesian analysis, and we hope that they further encourage both researchers and journals to consistently adopt this crucial step as standard practice. Finally, we note that the results presented here do not refute the biological modeling concerns identified by Beaulieu et al. (2015). Both sets of issues remain apposite to the goals of accurate divergence time estimation, and only by considering them in tandem can we move forward more confidently.

Molecular phylogenetic analysis of nuclear genes suggests a Cenozoic over-water dispersal origin for the Cuban solenodon.

PubMed

Sato, Jun J; Ohdachi, Satoshi D; Echenique-Diaz, Lazaro M; Borroto-Páez, Rafael; Begué-Quiala, Gerardo; Delgado-Labañino, Jorge L; Gámez-Díez, Jorgelino; Alvarez-Lemus, José; Nguyen, Son Truong; Yamaguchi, Nobuyuki; Kita, Masaki

2016-08-08

The Cuban solenodon (Solenodon cubanus) is one of the most enigmatic mammals and is an extremely rare species with a distribution limited to a small part of the island of Cuba. Despite its rarity, in 2012 seven individuals of S. cubanus were captured and sampled successfully for DNA analysis, providing new insights into the evolutionary origin of this species and into the origins of the Caribbean fauna, which remain controversial. We conducted molecular phylogenetic analyses of five nuclear genes (Apob, Atp7a, Bdnf, Brca1 and Rag1; total, 4,602 bp) from 35 species of the mammalian order Eulipotyphla. Based on Bayesian relaxed molecular clock analyses, the family Solenodontidae diverged from other eulipotyphlan in the Paleocene, after the bolide impact on the Yucatan Peninsula, and S. cubanus diverged from the Hispaniolan solenodon (S. paradoxus) in the Early Pliocene. The strikingly recent divergence time estimates suggest that S. cubanus and its ancestral lineage originated via over-water dispersal rather than vicariance events, as had previously been hypothesised.

Molecular phylogenetic analysis of nuclear genes suggests a Cenozoic over-water dispersal origin for the Cuban solenodon

PubMed Central

Sato, Jun J.; Ohdachi, Satoshi D.; Echenique-Diaz, Lazaro M.; Borroto-Páez, Rafael; Begué-Quiala, Gerardo; Delgado-Labañino, Jorge L.; Gámez-Díez, Jorgelino; Alvarez-Lemus, José; Nguyen, Son Truong; Yamaguchi, Nobuyuki; Kita, Masaki

2016-01-01

The Cuban solenodon (Solenodon cubanus) is one of the most enigmatic mammals and is an extremely rare species with a distribution limited to a small part of the island of Cuba. Despite its rarity, in 2012 seven individuals of S. cubanus were captured and sampled successfully for DNA analysis, providing new insights into the evolutionary origin of this species and into the origins of the Caribbean fauna, which remain controversial. We conducted molecular phylogenetic analyses of five nuclear genes (Apob, Atp7a, Bdnf, Brca1 and Rag1; total, 4,602 bp) from 35 species of the mammalian order Eulipotyphla. Based on Bayesian relaxed molecular clock analyses, the family Solenodontidae diverged from other eulipotyphlan in the Paleocene, after the bolide impact on the Yucatan Peninsula, and S. cubanus diverged from the Hispaniolan solenodon (S. paradoxus) in the Early Pliocene. The strikingly recent divergence time estimates suggest that S. cubanus and its ancestral lineage originated via over-water dispersal rather than vicariance events, as had previously been hypothesised. PMID:27498968

Divergences and estimating tight bounds on Bayes error with applications to multivariate Gaussian copula and latent Gaussian copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thelen, Brian J.; Xique, Ismael J.; Burns, Joseph W.; Goley, G. Steven; Nolan, Adam R.; Benson, Jonathan W.

2017-04-01

In Bayesian decision theory, there has been a great amount of research into theoretical frameworks and information- theoretic quantities that can be used to provide lower and upper bounds for the Bayes error. These include well-known bounds such as Chernoff, Battacharrya, and J-divergence. Part of the challenge of utilizing these various metrics in practice is (i) whether they are "loose" or "tight" bounds, (ii) how they might be estimated via either parametric or non-parametric methods, and (iii) how accurate the estimates are for limited amounts of data. In general what is desired is a methodology for generating relatively tight lower and upper bounds, and then an approach to estimate these bounds efficiently from data. In this paper, we explore the so-called triangle divergence which has been around for a while, but was recently made more prominent in some recent research on non-parametric estimation of information metrics. Part of this work is motivated by applications for quantifying fundamental information content in SAR/LIDAR data, and to help in this, we have developed a flexible multivariate modeling framework based on multivariate Gaussian copula models which can be combined with the triangle divergence framework to quantify this information, and provide approximate bounds on Bayes error. In this paper we present an overview of the bounds, including those based on triangle divergence and verify that under a number of multivariate models, the upper and lower bounds derived from triangle divergence are significantly tighter than the other common bounds, and often times, dramatically so. We also propose some simple but effective means for computing the triangle divergence using Monte Carlo methods, and then discuss estimation of the triangle divergence from empirical data based on Gaussian Copula models.

Origin of microbial biomineralization and magnetotaxis during the Archean.

PubMed

Lin, Wei; Paterson, Greig A; Zhu, Qiyun; Wang, Yinzhao; Kopylova, Evguenia; Li, Ying; Knight, Rob; Bazylinski, Dennis A; Zhu, Rixiang; Kirschvink, Joseph L; Pan, Yongxin

2017-02-28

Microbes that synthesize minerals, a process known as microbial biomineralization, contributed substantially to the evolution of current planetary environments through numerous important geochemical processes. Despite its geological significance, the origin and evolution of microbial biomineralization remain poorly understood. Through combined metagenomic and phylogenetic analyses of deep-branching magnetotactic bacteria from the Nitrospirae phylum, and using a Bayesian molecular clock-dating method, we show here that the gene cluster responsible for biomineralization of magnetosomes, and the arrangement of magnetosome chain(s) within cells, both originated before or near the Archean divergence between the Nitrospirae and Proteobacteria This phylogenetic divergence occurred well before the Great Oxygenation Event. Magnetotaxis likely evolved due to environmental pressures conferring an evolutionary advantage to navigation via the geomagnetic field. Earth's dynamo must therefore have been sufficiently strong to sustain microbial magnetotaxis in the Archean, suggesting that magnetotaxis coevolved with the geodynamo over geological time.

Topology, divergence dates, and macroevolutionary inferences vary between different tip-dating approaches applied to fossil theropods (Dinosauria).

PubMed

Bapst, D W; Wright, A M; Matzke, N J; Lloyd, G T

2016-07-01

Dated phylogenies of fossil taxa allow palaeobiologists to estimate the timing of major divergences and placement of extinct lineages, and to test macroevolutionary hypotheses. Recently developed Bayesian 'tip-dating' methods simultaneously infer and date the branching relationships among fossil taxa, and infer putative ancestral relationships. Using a previously published dataset for extinct theropod dinosaurs, we contrast the dated relationships inferred by several tip-dating approaches and evaluate potential downstream effects on phylogenetic comparative methods. We also compare tip-dating analyses to maximum-parsimony trees time-scaled via alternative a posteriori approaches including via the probabilistic cal3 method. Among tip-dating analyses, we find opposing but strongly supported relationships, despite similarity in inferred ancestors. Overall, tip-dating methods infer divergence dates often millions (or tens of millions) of years older than the earliest stratigraphic appearance of that clade. Model-comparison analyses of the pattern of body-size evolution found that the support for evolutionary mode can vary across and between tree samples from cal3 and tip-dating approaches. These differences suggest that model and software choice in dating analyses can have a substantial impact on the dated phylogenies obtained and broader evolutionary inferences. © 2016 The Author(s).

Phylogenetic analyses of complete mitochondrial genome sequences suggest a basal divergence of the enigmatic rodent Anomalurus

PubMed Central

Horner, David S; Lefkimmiatis, Konstantinos; Reyes, Aurelio; Gissi, Carmela; Saccone, Cecilia; Pesole, Graziano

2007-01-01

Background Phylogenetic relationships between Lagomorpha, Rodentia and Primates and their allies (Euarchontoglires) have long been debated. While it is now generally agreed that Rodentia constitutes a monophyletic sister-group of Lagomorpha and that this clade (Glires) is sister to Primates and Dermoptera, higher-level relationships within Rodentia remain contentious. Results We have sequenced and performed extensive evolutionary analyses on the mitochondrial genome of the scaly-tailed flying squirrel Anomalurus sp., an enigmatic rodent whose phylogenetic affinities have been obscure and extensively debated. Our phylogenetic analyses of the coding regions of available complete mitochondrial genome sequences from Euarchontoglires suggest that Anomalurus is a sister taxon to the Hystricognathi, and that this clade represents the most basal divergence among sampled Rodentia. Bayesian dating methods incorporating a relaxed molecular clock provide divergence-time estimates which are consistently in agreement with the fossil record and which indicate a rapid radiation within Glires around 60 million years ago. Conclusion Taken together, the data presented provide a working hypothesis as to the phylogenetic placement of Anomalurus, underline the utility of mitochondrial sequences in the resolution of even relatively deep divergences and go some way to explaining the difficulty of conclusively resolving higher-level relationships within Glires with available data and methodologies. PMID:17288612

Revealing Less Derived Nature of Cartilaginous Fish Genomes with Their Evolutionary Time Scale Inferred with Nuclear Genes

PubMed Central

Renz, Adina J.; Meyer, Axel; Kuraku, Shigehiro

2013-01-01

Cartilaginous fishes, divided into Holocephali (chimaeras) and Elasmoblanchii (sharks, rays and skates), occupy a key phylogenetic position among extant vertebrates in reconstructing their evolutionary processes. Their accurate evolutionary time scale is indispensable for better understanding of the relationship between phenotypic and molecular evolution of cartilaginous fishes. However, our current knowledge on the time scale of cartilaginous fish evolution largely relies on estimates using mitochondrial DNA sequences. In this study, making the best use of the still partial, but large-scale sequencing data of cartilaginous fish species, we estimate the divergence times between the major cartilaginous fish lineages employing nuclear genes. By rigorous orthology assessment based on available genomic and transcriptomic sequence resources for cartilaginous fishes, we selected 20 protein-coding genes in the nuclear genome, spanning 2973 amino acid residues. Our analysis based on the Bayesian inference resulted in the mean divergence time of 421 Ma, the late Silurian, for the Holocephali-Elasmobranchii split, and 306 Ma, the late Carboniferous, for the split between sharks and rays/skates. By applying these results and other documented divergence times, we measured the relative evolutionary rate of the Hox A cluster sequences in the cartilaginous fish lineages, which resulted in a lower substitution rate with a factor of at least 2.4 in comparison to tetrapod lineages. The obtained time scale enables mapping phenotypic and molecular changes in a quantitative framework. It is of great interest to corroborate the less derived nature of cartilaginous fish at the molecular level as a genome-wide phenomenon. PMID:23825540

Revealing less derived nature of cartilaginous fish genomes with their evolutionary time scale inferred with nuclear genes.

PubMed

Renz, Adina J; Meyer, Axel; Kuraku, Shigehiro

2013-01-01

Cartilaginous fishes, divided into Holocephali (chimaeras) and Elasmoblanchii (sharks, rays and skates), occupy a key phylogenetic position among extant vertebrates in reconstructing their evolutionary processes. Their accurate evolutionary time scale is indispensable for better understanding of the relationship between phenotypic and molecular evolution of cartilaginous fishes. However, our current knowledge on the time scale of cartilaginous fish evolution largely relies on estimates using mitochondrial DNA sequences. In this study, making the best use of the still partial, but large-scale sequencing data of cartilaginous fish species, we estimate the divergence times between the major cartilaginous fish lineages employing nuclear genes. By rigorous orthology assessment based on available genomic and transcriptomic sequence resources for cartilaginous fishes, we selected 20 protein-coding genes in the nuclear genome, spanning 2973 amino acid residues. Our analysis based on the Bayesian inference resulted in the mean divergence time of 421 Ma, the late Silurian, for the Holocephali-Elasmobranchii split, and 306 Ma, the late Carboniferous, for the split between sharks and rays/skates. By applying these results and other documented divergence times, we measured the relative evolutionary rate of the Hox A cluster sequences in the cartilaginous fish lineages, which resulted in a lower substitution rate with a factor of at least 2.4 in comparison to tetrapod lineages. The obtained time scale enables mapping phenotypic and molecular changes in a quantitative framework. It is of great interest to corroborate the less derived nature of cartilaginous fish at the molecular level as a genome-wide phenomenon.

Climatic Factors Drive Population Divergence and Demography: Insights Based on the Phylogeography of a Riparian Plant Species Endemic to the Hengduan Mountains and Adjacent Regions.

PubMed

Wang, Zhi-Wei; Chen, Shao-Tian; Nie, Ze-Long; Zhang, Jian-Wen; Zhou, Zhuo; Deng, Tao; Sun, Hang

2015-01-01

Quaternary climatic factors have played a significant role in population divergence and demography. Here we investigated the phylogeography of Osteomeles schwerinae, a dominant riparian plant species of the hot/warm-dry river valleys of the Hengduan Mountains (HDM), Qinling Mountains (QLM) and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau (YGP). Three chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) regions (trnD-trnT, psbD-trnT, petL-psbE), one single copy nuclear gene (glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate dehydrogenase; G3pdh), and climatic data during the Last Interglacial (LIG; c. 120-140 ka), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; c. 21 ka), and Current (c. 1950-2000) periods were used in this study. Six cpDNA haplotypes and 15 nuclear DNA (nDNA) haplotypes were identified in the 40 populations of O. schwerinae. Spatial Analysis of Molecular Variance, median-joining networks, and Bayesian phylogenetic trees based on the cpDNA and nDNA datasets, all suggested population divergence between the QLM and HDM-YGP regions. Our climatic analysis identified significant heterogeneity of the climatic factors in the QLM and HDM-YGP regions during the aforementioned three periods. The divergence times based on cpDNA and nDNA haplotypes were estimated to be 466.4-159.4 ka and 315.8-160.3 ka, respectively, which coincide with the time of the weakening of the Asian monsoons in these regions. In addition, unimodal pairwise mismatch distribution curves, expansion times, and Ecological Niche Modeling suggested a history of population expansion (rather than contraction) during the last glaciation. Interestingly, the expansion times were found being well consistent with the intensification of the Asian monsoons during this period. We inferred that the divergence between the two main lineages is probably caused by disruption of more continuous distribution because of weakening of monsoons/less precipitation, whilst subsequent intensification of the Asian monsoons during the last glaciation facilitated the expansion of O. schwerinae populations.

Analysis and comparison of safety models using average daily, average hourly, and microscopic traffic.

PubMed

Wang, Ling; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Xuesong; Yu, Rongjie

2018-02-01

There have been plenty of traffic safety studies based on average daily traffic (ADT), average hourly traffic (AHT), or microscopic traffic at 5 min intervals. Nevertheless, not enough research has compared the performance of these three types of safety studies, and seldom of previous studies have intended to find whether the results of one type of study is transferable to the other two studies. First, this study built three models: a Bayesian Poisson-lognormal model to estimate the daily crash frequency using ADT, a Bayesian Poisson-lognormal model to estimate the hourly crash frequency using AHT, and a Bayesian logistic regression model for the real-time safety analysis using microscopic traffic. The model results showed that the crash contributing factors found by different models were comparable but not the same. Four variables, i.e., the logarithm of volume, the standard deviation of speed, the logarithm of segment length, and the existence of diverge segment, were positively significant in the three models. Additionally, weaving segments experienced higher daily and hourly crash frequencies than merge and basic segments. Then, each of the ADT-based, AHT-based, and real-time models was used to estimate safety conditions at different levels: daily and hourly, meanwhile, the real-time model was also used in 5 min intervals. The results uncovered that the ADT- and AHT-based safety models performed similar in predicting daily and hourly crash frequencies, and the real-time safety model was able to provide hourly crash frequency. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recursive algorithms for phylogenetic tree counting.

PubMed

Gavryushkina, Alexandra; Welch, David; Drummond, Alexei J

2013-10-28

In Bayesian phylogenetic inference we are interested in distributions over a space of trees. The number of trees in a tree space is an important characteristic of the space and is useful for specifying prior distributions. When all samples come from the same time point and no prior information available on divergence times, the tree counting problem is easy. However, when fossil evidence is used in the inference to constrain the tree or data are sampled serially, new tree spaces arise and counting the number of trees is more difficult. We describe an algorithm that is polynomial in the number of sampled individuals for counting of resolutions of a constraint tree assuming that the number of constraints is fixed. We generalise this algorithm to counting resolutions of a fully ranked constraint tree. We describe a quadratic algorithm for counting the number of possible fully ranked trees on n sampled individuals. We introduce a new type of tree, called a fully ranked tree with sampled ancestors, and describe a cubic time algorithm for counting the number of such trees on n sampled individuals. These algorithms should be employed for Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo inference when fossil data are included or data are serially sampled.

Historical connectivity, contemporary isolation and local adaptation in a widespread but discontinuously distributed species endemic to Taiwan, Rhododendron oldhamii (Ericaceae)

PubMed Central

Hsieh, Y-C; Chung, J-D; Wang, C-N; Chang, C-T; Chen, C-Y; Hwang, S-Y

2013-01-01

Elucidation of the evolutionary processes that constrain or facilitate adaptive divergence is a central goal in evolutionary biology, especially in non-model organisms. We tested whether changes in dynamics of gene flow (historical vs contemporary) caused population isolation and examined local adaptation in response to environmental selective forces in fragmented Rhododendron oldhamii populations. Variation in 26 expressed sequence tag-simple sequence repeat loci from 18 populations in Taiwan was investigated by examining patterns of genetic diversity, inbreeding, geographic structure, recent bottlenecks, and historical and contemporary gene flow. Selection associated with environmental variables was also examined. Bayesian clustering analysis revealed four regional population groups of north, central, south and southeast with significant genetic differentiation. Historical bottlenecks beginning 9168–13,092 years ago and ending 1584–3504 years ago were revealed by estimates using approximate Bayesian computation for all four regional samples analyzed. Recent migration within and across geographic regions was limited. However, major dispersal sources were found within geographic regions. Altitudinal clines of allelic frequencies of environmentally associated positively selected outliers were found, indicating adaptive divergence. Our results point to a transition from historical population connectivity toward contemporary population isolation and divergence on a regional scale. Spatial and temporal dispersal differences may have resulted in regional population divergence and local adaptation associated with environmental variables, which may have played roles as selective forces at a regional scale. PMID:23591517

Comparative phylogeography of Mississippi embayment fishes.

PubMed

Egge, Jacob J D; Hagbo, Taylor J

2015-01-01

The Mississippi Embayment is a prominent physiographic feature of eastern North America consisting of primarily lowland aquatic habitats and a fish fauna that is largely distinct from nearby highland regions. Numerous studies have demonstrated that both pre-Pleistocene and Pleistocene events have had a strong influence on the distributions and relationships of highland fishes in eastern North America. However, the extent to which these same events affected Embayment distributed taxa remains largely unexplored. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relative roles of pre-Pleistocene and Pleistocene events in shaping phylogeographic relationships of four stream dwelling fishes in the Mississippi Embayment. Molecular genetic analyses of the mitochondrial gene cytochrome b were performed for three ictalurid catfish species (Noturus miurus, n = 67; Noturus hildebrandi, n = 93, and Noturus phaeus, n = 44) and one minnow species (Cyprinella camura, n = 78), all distributed in tributary streams of the Mississippi Embayment. Phylogenetic relationships and divergence times among haplotypes for each species were estimated using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. Phylogenetic analyses recovered 6 major haplotype clades within N. miurus, 5 within N. hildbrandi, 8 within N. phaeus, and 8 within C. camura. All three Noturus species show a high degree of isolation by drainage, which is less evident in C. camura. A clade of haplotypes from tributaries in the southern portion of the Mississippi Embayment was consistently recovered in all four species. Divergence times among clades spanned the Pleistocene, Pliocene, and Miocene. Novel relationships presented here for C. camura and N. phaeus suggest the potential for cryptic species. Pre-Pleistocene and Pleistocene era sea level fluctuations coincide with some divergence events, but no single event explains any common divergence across all taxa. Like their highland relatives, a combination of both pre-Pleistocene and Pleistocene era events have driven divergences among Embayment lineages.

Diversification in North American arid lands: niche conservatism, divergence and expansion of habitat explain speciation in the genus Ephedra.

PubMed

Loera, Israel; Sosa, Victoria; Ickert-Bond, Stefanie M

2012-11-01

A lineage of 12 arid land shrubby species in the gymnosperm genus Ephedra (Gnetales) from North America is used to evaluate the influence of climate on speciation. With a long evolutionary history, and a well documented fossil record this lineage is an ideal model for understanding the process of speciation under a niche conservatism scenario. Using seven DNA molecular markers, Bayesian inference is carried out to uncover sister species and to estimate time of divergence of the lineages. Ecological niche models are generated for four parapatric and sympatric sister species and two analyses of niche evolution are performed, one based on ecological niche models and another using raw data and multivariate analysis. As previous analyses suggest, the diversification of North America Ephedra species may be the result of a recent secondary radiation. Both parapatric and sympatric species diverged mostly in a scenario of climatic niche conservatism. However, we also found strong evidence for niche divergence for one of the sister species pairs (E. californica-E. trifurca). Moreover, the multivariate analysis found environmental differences for some variables between sister species. The estimated divergence time of three pairs of sister species distributed in southwestern North America (E. cutleri-E. aspera, E. californica-E. trifurca and E. torreyana-E. viridis) is inferred to have occurred in the Late Miocene to Pliocene and for the sister species pair E. antisyphilitica-E. coryi distributed in the southern United States and northeastern Mexico, it was inferred from the Pliocene to Pleistocene. The orogenetic and climatic changes documented for these regions related to expansion of arid lands, may have contributed to the diversification in North American Ephedra, rather than adaptations to new climatic conditions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A dated molecular phylogeny of manta and devil rays (Mobulidae) based on mitogenome and nuclear sequences.

PubMed

Poortvliet, Marloes; Olsen, Jeanine L; Croll, Donald A; Bernardi, Giacomo; Newton, Kelly; Kollias, Spyros; O'Sullivan, John; Fernando, Daniel; Stevens, Guy; Galván Magaña, Felipe; Seret, Bernard; Wintner, Sabine; Hoarau, Galice

2015-02-01

Manta and devil rays are an iconic group of globally distributed pelagic filter feeders, yet their evolutionary history remains enigmatic. We employed next generation sequencing of mitogenomes for nine of the 11 recognized species and two outgroups; as well as additional Sanger sequencing of two mitochondrial and two nuclear genes in an extended taxon sampling set. Analysis of the mitogenome coding regions in a Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian framework provided a well-resolved phylogeny. The deepest divergences distinguished three clades with high support, one containing Manta birostris, Manta alfredi, Mobula tarapacana, Mobula japanica and Mobula mobular; one containing Mobula kuhlii, Mobula eregoodootenkee and Mobula thurstoni; and one containing Mobula munkiana, Mobula hypostoma and Mobula rochebrunei. Mobula remains paraphyletic with the inclusion of Manta, a result that is in agreement with previous studies based on molecular and morphological data. A fossil-calibrated Bayesian random local clock analysis suggests that mobulids diverged from Rhinoptera around 30 Mya. Subsequent divergences are characterized by long internodes followed by short bursts of speciation extending from an initial episode of divergence in the Early and Middle Miocene (19-17 Mya) to a second episode during the Pliocene and Pleistocene (3.6 Mya - recent). Estimates of divergence dates overlap significantly with periods of global warming, during which upwelling intensity - and related high primary productivity in upwelling regions - decreased markedly. These periods are hypothesized to have led to fragmentation and isolation of feeding regions leading to possible regional extinctions, as well as the promotion of allopatric speciation. The closely shared evolutionary history of mobulids in combination with ongoing threats from fisheries and climate change effects on upwelling and food supply, reinforces the case for greater protection of this charismatic family of pelagic filter feeders. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Divergence history of the Carpathian and smooth newts modelled in space and time.

PubMed

Zieliński, P; Nadachowska-Brzyska, K; Dudek, K; Babik, W

2016-08-01

Information about demographic history is essential for the understanding of the processes of divergence and speciation. Patterns of genetic variation within and between closely related species provide insights into the history of their interactions. Here, we investigated historical demography and genetic exchange between the Carpathian (Lissotriton montandoni, Lm) and smooth (L. vulgaris, Lv) newts. We combine an extensive geographical sampling and multilocus nuclear sequence data with the approximate Bayesian computation framework to test alternative scenarios of divergence and reconstruct the temporal and spatial pattern of gene flow between species. A model of recent (last glacial period) interspecific gene flow was favoured over alternative models. Thus, despite the relatively old divergence (4-6 mya) and presumably long periods of isolation, the species have retained the ability to exchange genes. Nevertheless, the low migration rates (ca. 10(-6) per gene copy per generation) are consistent with strong reproductive isolation between the species. Models allowing demographic changes were favoured, suggesting that the effective population sizes of both species at least doubled as divergence reaching the current ca. 0.2 million in Lm and 1 million in Lv. We found asymmetry in rates of interspecific gene flow between Lm and one evolutionary lineage of Lv. We suggest that intraspecific polymorphism for hybrid incompatibilities segregating within Lv could explain this pattern and propose further tests to distinguish between alternative explanations. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating intraspecific genetic structure into the models investigating the history of divergence. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Biogeography of the Pistia clade (Araceae): based on chloroplast and mitochondrial DNA sequences and Bayesian divergence time inference.

PubMed

Renner, Susanne S; Zhang, Li-Bing

2004-06-01

Pistia stratiotes (water lettuce) and Lemna (duckweeds) are the only free-floating aquatic Araceae. The geographic origin and phylogenetic placement of these unrelated aroids present long-standing problems because of their highly modified reproductive structures and wide geographical distributions. We sampled chloroplast (trnL-trnF and rpl20-rps12 spacers, trnL intron) and mitochondrial sequences (nad1 b/c intron) for all genera implicated as close relatives of Pistia by morphological, restriction site, and sequencing data, and present a hypothesis about its geographic origin based on the consensus of trees obtained from the combined data, using Bayesian, maximum likelihood, parsimony, and distance analyses. Of the 14 genera closest to Pistia, only Alocasia, Arisaema, and Typhonium are species-rich, and the latter two were studied previously, facilitating the choice of representatives that span the roots of these genera. Results indicate that Pistia and the Seychelles endemic Protarum sechellarum are the basalmost branches in a grade comprising the tribes Colocasieae (Ariopsis, Steudnera, Remusatia, Alocasia, Colocasia), Arisaemateae (Arisaema, Pinellia), and Areae (Arum, Biarum, Dracunculus, Eminium, Helicodiceros, Theriophonum, Typhonium). Unexpectedly, all Areae genera are embedded in Typhonium, which throws new light on the geographic history of Areae. A Bayesian analysis of divergence times that explores the effects of multiple fossil and geological calibration points indicates that the Pistia lineage is 90 to 76 million years (my) old. The oldest fossils of the Pistia clade, though not Pistia itself, are 45-my-old leaves from Germany; the closest outgroup, Peltandreae (comprising a few species in Florida, the Mediterranean, and Madagascar), is known from 60-my-old leaves from Europe, Kazakhstan, North Dakota, and Tennessee. Based on the geographic ranges of close relatives, Pistia likely originated in the Tethys region, with Protarum then surviving on the Seychelles, which became isolated from Madagascar and India in the Late Cretaceous (85 my ago). Pistia and Protarum provide striking examples of ancient lineages that appear to have survived in unique or isolated habitats.

Bayesian screening for active compounds in high-dimensional chemical spaces combining property descriptors and molecular fingerprints.

PubMed

Vogt, Martin; Bajorath, Jürgen

2008-01-01

Bayesian classifiers are increasingly being used to distinguish active from inactive compounds and search large databases for novel active molecules. We introduce an approach to directly combine the contributions of property descriptors and molecular fingerprints in the search for active compounds that is based on a Bayesian framework. Conventionally, property descriptors and fingerprints are used as alternative features for virtual screening methods. Following the approach introduced here, probability distributions of descriptor values and fingerprint bit settings are calculated for active and database molecules and the divergence between the resulting combined distributions is determined as a measure of biological activity. In test calculations on a large number of compound activity classes, this methodology was found to consistently perform better than similarity searching using fingerprints and multiple reference compounds or Bayesian screening calculations using probability distributions calculated only from property descriptors. These findings demonstrate that there is considerable synergy between different types of property descriptors and fingerprints in recognizing diverse structure-activity relationships, at least in the context of Bayesian modeling.

Evolution of the viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus: divergence, selection and origin.

PubMed

He, Mei; Yan, Xue-Chun; Liang, Yang; Sun, Xiao-Wen; Teng, Chun-Bo

2014-08-01

Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) is an economically significant rhabdovirus that affects an increasing number of freshwater and marine fish species. Extensive studies have been conducted on the molecular epizootiology, genetic diversity, and phylogeny of VHSV. However, there are discrepancies between the reported estimates of the nucleotide substitution rate for the G gene and the divergence times for the genotypes. Herein, Bayesian coalescent analyses were conducted to the time-stamped entire coding sequences of the six VHSV genes. Rate estimates based on the G gene indicated that the marine genotypes/subtypes might not all evolve slower than their major European freshwater counterpart. Age calculations on the six genes revealed that the first bifurcation event of the analyzed isolates might have taken place within the last 300 years, which was much younger than previously thought. Selection analyses suggested that two codons of the G gene might be positively selected. Surveys of codon usage bias showed that the P, M and NV genes exhibited genotype-specific variations. Furthermore, we proposed that VHSV originated from the Pacific Northwest of North America. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

When virulence originates from non-agricultural hosts: new insights into plant breeding.

PubMed

Leroy, Thibault; Le Cam, Bruno; Lemaire, Christophe

2014-10-01

Monogenic plant resistance breakdown is a model for testing evolution in action in pathogens. As a rule, plant pathologists argue that virulence - the allele that allows pathogens to overcome resistance - is due to a new mutation at the avirulence locus within the native/endemic population that infects susceptible crops. In this article, we develop an alternative and neglected scenario where a given virulence pre-exists in a non-agricultural host and might be accidentally released or introduced on the matching resistant cultivar in the field. The main difference between the two scenarios is the divergence time expected between the avirulent and the virulent populations. As a consequence, population genetic approaches such as genome scans and Approximate Bayesian Computation methods allow explicit testing of the two scenarios by timing the divergence. This review then explores the fundamental implications of this alternative scenario for plant breeding, including the invasion of virulence or the evolution of more aggressive hybrids, and proposes concrete solutions to achieve a sustainable resistance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The phylogeny and evolutionary history of tyrannosauroid dinosaurs.

PubMed

Brusatte, Stephen L; Carr, Thomas D

2016-02-02

Tyrannosauroids--the group of carnivores including Tyrannosaurs rex--are some of the most familiar dinosaurs of all. A surge of recent discoveries has helped clarify some aspects of their evolution, but competing phylogenetic hypotheses raise questions about their relationships, biogeography, and fossil record quality. We present a new phylogenetic dataset, which merges published datasets and incorporates recently discovered taxa. We analyze it with parsimony and, for the first time for a tyrannosauroid dataset, Bayesian techniques. The parsimony and Bayesian results are highly congruent, and provide a framework for interpreting the biogeography and evolutionary history of tyrannosauroids. Our phylogenies illustrate that the body plan of the colossal species evolved piecemeal, imply no clear division between northern and southern species in western North America as had been argued, and suggest that T. rex may have been an Asian migrant to North America. Over-reliance on cranial shape characters may explain why published parsimony studies have diverged and filling three major gaps in the fossil record holds the most promise for future work.

The phylogeny and evolutionary history of tyrannosauroid dinosaurs

PubMed Central

Brusatte, Stephen L.; Carr, Thomas D.

2016-01-01

Tyrannosauroids—the group of carnivores including Tyrannosaurs rex—are some of the most familiar dinosaurs of all. A surge of recent discoveries has helped clarify some aspects of their evolution, but competing phylogenetic hypotheses raise questions about their relationships, biogeography, and fossil record quality. We present a new phylogenetic dataset, which merges published datasets and incorporates recently discovered taxa. We analyze it with parsimony and, for the first time for a tyrannosauroid dataset, Bayesian techniques. The parsimony and Bayesian results are highly congruent, and provide a framework for interpreting the biogeography and evolutionary history of tyrannosauroids. Our phylogenies illustrate that the body plan of the colossal species evolved piecemeal, imply no clear division between northern and southern species in western North America as had been argued, and suggest that T. rex may have been an Asian migrant to North America. Over-reliance on cranial shape characters may explain why published parsimony studies have diverged and filling three major gaps in the fossil record holds the most promise for future work. PMID:26830019

The phylogeny and evolutionary history of tyrannosauroid dinosaurs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brusatte, Stephen L.; Carr, Thomas D.

2016-02-01

Tyrannosauroids—the group of carnivores including Tyrannosaurs rex—are some of the most familiar dinosaurs of all. A surge of recent discoveries has helped clarify some aspects of their evolution, but competing phylogenetic hypotheses raise questions about their relationships, biogeography, and fossil record quality. We present a new phylogenetic dataset, which merges published datasets and incorporates recently discovered taxa. We analyze it with parsimony and, for the first time for a tyrannosauroid dataset, Bayesian techniques. The parsimony and Bayesian results are highly congruent, and provide a framework for interpreting the biogeography and evolutionary history of tyrannosauroids. Our phylogenies illustrate that the body plan of the colossal species evolved piecemeal, imply no clear division between northern and southern species in western North America as had been argued, and suggest that T. rex may have been an Asian migrant to North America. Over-reliance on cranial shape characters may explain why published parsimony studies have diverged and filling three major gaps in the fossil record holds the most promise for future work.

A Bayesian Analysis of the Post-seismic Deformation of the Great 11 March 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Mw 9.0) Earthquake: Implications for Future Earthquake Occurrence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortega Culaciati, F. H.; Simons, M.; Minson, S. E.; Owen, S. E.; Moore, A. W.; Hetland, E. A.

2011-12-01

We aim to quantify the spatial distribution of after-slip following the Great 11 March 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Mw 9.0) earthquake and its implications for the occurrence of a future Great Earthquake, particularly in the Ibaraki region of Japan. We use a Bayesian approach (CATMIP algorithm), constrained by on-land Geonet GPS time series, to infer models of after-slip to date in the Japan megathrust. Unlike traditional inverse methods, in which a single optimum model is found, the Bayesian approach allows a complete characterization of the model parameter space by searching a-posteriori estimates of the range of plausible models. We use the Kullback-Liebler information divergence as a metric of the information gain on each subsurface slip patch, to quantify the extent to which land-based geodetic observations can constrain the upper parts of the megathrust, where the Great Tohoku-Oki earthquake took place. We aim to understand the relationships of spatial distribution of fault slip behavior in the different stages of the seismic cycle. We compare our post-seismic slip distributions to inter- and co-seismic slip distributions obtained through a Bayesian methodology as well as through traditional (optimization) inverse estimates in the published literature. We discuss implications of these analyses for the occurrence of a large earthquake in the Japan megathrust regions adjacent to the Great Tohoku-Oki earthquake.

Mitochondrial genomes of two Australian fishflies with an evolutionary timescale of Chauliodinae.

PubMed

Yang, Fan; Jiang, Yunlan; Yang, Ding; Liu, Xingyue

2017-06-30

Fishflies (Corydalidae: Chauliodinae) with a total of ca. 130 extant species are one of the major groups of the holometabolous insect order Megaloptera. As a group which originated during the Mesozoic, the phylogeny and historical biogeography of fishflies are of high interest. The previous hypothesis on the evolutionary history of fishflies was based primarily on morphological data. To further test the existing phylogenetic relationships and to understand the divergence pattern of fishflies, we conducted a molecule-based study. We determined the complete mitochondrial (mt) genomes of two Australian fishfly species, Archichauliodes deceptor Kimmins, 1954 and Protochauliodes biconicus Kimmins, 1954, both members of a major subgroup of Chauliodinae with high phylogenetic significance. A phylogenomic analysis was carried out based on 13 mt protein coding genes (PCGs) and two rRNAs genes from the megalopteran species with determined mt genomes. Both maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference analyses recovered the Dysmicohermes clade as the sister group of the Archichauliodes clade + the Protochauliodes clade, which is consistent with the previous morphology-based hypothesis. The divergence time estimation suggested that the divergence among the three major subgroups of fishflies occurred during the Late Jurassic and Early Cretaceous when the supercontinent Pangaea was undergoing sequential breakup.

Host jumps shaped the diversity of extant rust fungi (Pucciniales).

PubMed

McTaggart, Alistair R; Shivas, Roger G; van der Nest, Magriet A; Roux, Jolanda; Wingfield, Brenda D; Wingfield, Michael J

2016-02-01

The aim of this study was to determine the evolutionary time line for rust fungi and date key speciation events using a molecular clock. Evidence is provided that supports a contemporary view for a recent origin of rust fungi, with a common ancestor on a flowering plant. Divergence times for > 20 genera of rust fungi were studied with Bayesian evolutionary analyses. A relaxed molecular clock was applied to ribosomal and mitochondrial genes, calibrated against estimated divergence times for the hosts of rust fungi, such as Acacia (Fabaceae), angiosperms and the cupressophytes. Results showed that rust fungi shared a most recent common ancestor with a mean age between 113 and 115 million yr. This dates rust fungi to the Cretaceous period, which is much younger than previous estimations. Host jumps, whether taxonomically large or between host genera in the same family, most probably shaped the diversity of rust genera. Likewise, species diversified by host shifts (through coevolution) or via subsequent host jumps. This is in contrast to strict coevolution with their hosts. Puccinia psidii was recovered in Sphaerophragmiaceae, a family distinct from Raveneliaceae, which were regarded as confamilial in previous studies. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Wing patterning genes and coevolution of Müllerian mimicry in Heliconius butterflies: Support from phylogeography, cophylogeny, and divergence times.

PubMed

Hoyal Cuthill, Jennifer F; Charleston, Michael

2015-12-01

Examples of long-term coevolution are rare among free-living organisms. Müllerian mimicry in Heliconius butterflies had been suggested as a key example of coevolution by early genetic studies. However, research over the last two decades has been dominated by the idea that the best-studied comimics, H. erato and H. melpomene, did not coevolve at all. Recently sequenced genes associated with wing color pattern phenotype offer a new opportunity to resolve this controversy. Here, we test the hypothesis of coevolution between H. erato and H. melpomene using Bayesian multilocus analysis of five color pattern genes and five neutral genetic markers. We first explore the extent of phylogenetic agreement versus conflict between the different genes. Coevolution is then tested against three aspects of the mimicry diversifications: phylogenetic branching patterns, divergence times, and, for the first time, phylogeographic histories. We show that all three lines of evidence are compatible with strict coevolution of the diverse mimicry wing patterns, contrary to some recent suggestions. Instead, these findings tally with a coevolutionary diversification driven primarily by the ecological force of Müllerian mimicry. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Mean Field Variational Bayesian Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vrettas, M.; Cornford, D.; Opper, M.

2012-04-01

Current data assimilation schemes propose a range of approximate solutions to the classical data assimilation problem, particularly state estimation. Broadly there are three main active research areas: ensemble Kalman filter methods which rely on statistical linearization of the model evolution equations, particle filters which provide a discrete point representation of the posterior filtering or smoothing distribution and 4DVAR methods which seek the most likely posterior smoothing solution. In this paper we present a recent extension to our variational Bayesian algorithm which seeks the most probably posterior distribution over the states, within the family of non-stationary Gaussian processes. Our original work on variational Bayesian approaches to data assimilation sought the best approximating time varying Gaussian process to the posterior smoothing distribution for stochastic dynamical systems. This approach was based on minimising the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the true posterior over paths, and our Gaussian process approximation. So long as the observation density was sufficiently high to bring the posterior smoothing density close to Gaussian the algorithm proved very effective, on lower dimensional systems. However for higher dimensional systems, the algorithm was computationally very demanding. We have been developing a mean field version of the algorithm which treats the state variables at a given time as being independent in the posterior approximation, but still accounts for their relationships between each other in the mean solution arising from the original dynamical system. In this work we present the new mean field variational Bayesian approach, illustrating its performance on a range of classical data assimilation problems. We discuss the potential and limitations of the new approach. We emphasise that the variational Bayesian approach we adopt, in contrast to other variational approaches, provides a bound on the marginal likelihood of the observations given parameters in the model which also allows inference of parameters such as observation errors, and parameters in the model and model error representation, particularly if this is written as a deterministic form with small additive noise. We stress that our approach can address very long time window and weak constraint settings. However like traditional variational approaches our Bayesian variational method has the benefit of being posed as an optimisation problem. We finish with a sketch of the future directions for our approach.

Phylogeny and evolutionary radiation of the marine mussels (Bivalvia: Mytilidae) based on mitochondrial and nuclear genes.

PubMed

Liu, Jun; Liu, Helu; Zhang, Haibin

2018-04-22

The marine mussels (Mytilidae) are distributed in the oceans worldwide and occupy various habitats with diverse life styles. However, their taxonomy and phylogeny remain unclear from genus to family level due to equivocal morphological and anatomical characters among some taxa. In this study, we inferred the deep phylogenetic relationships among 42 mytiloid species, 19 genera, and five subfamilies of the extant marine mussels by using two mitochondrial (COI and 16S rRNA) and three nuclear (18S and 28S rRNA, and histone H3) genes. Phylogeny was reconstructed with a combination of five genes using Bayesian inference and maximum likelihood method, and divergence time was estimated for the major nodes using a relaxed clock model with three fossil calibrations. Phylogenetic trees revealed two major clades (Clades 1 and 2). In Clade 1, the deep-sea mussels (subfamily Bathymodiolinae) were sister to subfamily Modiolinae (represented by Modiolus), and then was clustered with Leiosolenus (subfamily Lithophaginae). Clade 2 comprised Lithophaga (Lithophaginae) and subfamily Mytilinae. Additionally, a Modiolus species and Musculus senhousia (subfamily Crenellinae) were positioned within the subfamily Mytilinae. The phylogenetic results strongly indicated monophyly of Mytilidae and Bathymodiolinae, polyphyly of Modiolinae and Lithophaginae, and paraphyly of Mytilinae. Divergence time estimation showed an ancient and gradual divergence in most mussel groups, whereas the deep-sea mussels originated recently and diverged rapidly during the Paleogene. The present study provides new insight into the evolutionary history of the marine mussels, and supports taxonomic revision for this important bivalve group. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Historical and current introgression in a Mesoamerican hummingbird species complex: a biogeographic perspective

PubMed Central

Jiménez, Rosa Alicia

2016-01-01

The influence of geologic and Pleistocene glacial cycles might result in morphological and genetic complex scenarios in the biota of the Mesoamerican region. We tested whether berylline, blue-tailed and steely-blue hummingbirds, Amazilia beryllina, Amazilia cyanura and Amazilia saucerottei, show evidence of historical or current introgression as their plumage colour variation might suggest. We also analysed the role of past and present climatic events in promoting genetic introgression and species diversification. We collected mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence data and microsatellite loci scores for populations throughout the range of the three Amazilia species, as well as morphological and ecological data. Haplotype network, Bayesian phylogenetic and divergence time inference, historical demography, palaeodistribution modelling, and niche divergence tests were used to reconstruct the evolutionary history of this Amazilia species complex. An isolation-with-migration coalescent model and Bayesian assignment analysis were assessed to determine historical introgression and current genetic admixture. mtDNA haplotypes were geographically unstructured, with haplotypes from disparate areas interdispersed on a shallow tree and an unresolved haplotype network. Assignment analysis of the nuclear genome (nuDNA) supported three genetic groups with signs of genetic admixture, corresponding to: (1) A. beryllina populations located west of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec; (2) A. cyanura populations between the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and the Nicaraguan Depression (Nuclear Central America); and (3) A. saucerottei populations southeast of the Nicaraguan Depression. Gene flow and divergence time estimates, and demographic and palaeodistribution patterns suggest an evolutionary history of introgression mediated by Quaternary climatic fluctuations. High levels of gene flow were indicated by mtDNA and asymmetrical isolation-with-migration, whereas the microsatellite analyses found evidence for three genetic clusters with distributions corresponding to isolation by the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and the Nicaraguan Depression and signs of admixture. Historical levels of migration between genetically distinct groups estimated using microsatellites were higher than contemporary levels of migration. These results support the scenario of secondary contact and range contact during the glacial periods of the Pleistocene and strongly imply that the high levels of structure currently observed are a consequence of the limited dispersal of these hummingbirds across the isthmus and depression barriers. PMID:26788433

New Biogeographic insight into Bauhinia s.l. (Leguminosae): integration from fossil records and molecular analyses

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Given that most species that have ever existed on earth are extinct, it stands to reason that the evolutionary history can be better understood with fossil taxa. Bauhinia is a typical genus of pantropical intercontinental disjunction among the Asian, African, and American continents. Geographic distribution patterns are better recognized when fossil records and molecular sequences are combined in the analyses. Here, we describe a new macrofossil species of Bauhinia from the Upper Miocene Xiaolongtan Formation in Wenshan County, Southeast Yunnan, China, and elucidate the biogeographic significance through the analyses of molecules and fossils. Results Morphometric analysis demonstrates that the leaf shapes of B. acuminata, B. championii, B. chalcophylla, B. purpurea, and B. podopetala closely resemble the leaf shapes of the new finding fossil. Phylogenetic relationships among the Bauhinia species were reconstructed using maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference, which inferred that species in Bauhinia species are well-resolved into three main groups. Divergence times were estimated by the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method under a relaxed clock, and inferred that the stem diversification time of Bauhinia was ca. 62.7 Ma. The Asian lineage first diverged at ca. 59.8 Ma, followed by divergence of the Africa lineage starting during the late Eocene, whereas that of the neotropical lineage starting during the middle Miocene. Conclusions Hypotheses relying on vicariance or continental history to explain pantropical disjunct distributions are dismissed because they require mostly Palaeogene and older tectonic events. We suggest that Bauhinia originated in the middle Paleocene in Laurasia, probably in Asia, implying a possible Tethys Seaway origin or an “Out of Tropical Asia”, and dispersal of legumes. Its present pantropical disjunction resulted from disruption of the boreotropical flora by climatic cooling after the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). North Atlantic land bridges (NALB) seem the most plausible route for migration of Bauhinia from Asia to America; and additional aspects of the Bauhinia species distribution are explained by migration and long distance dispersal (LDD) from Eurasia to the African and American continents. PMID:25288346

New Biogeographic insight into Bauhinia s.l. (Leguminosae): integration from fossil records and molecular analyses.

PubMed

Meng, Hong-Hu; Jacques, Frédéric Mb; Su, Tao; Huang, Yong-Jiang; Zhang, Shi-Tao; Ma, Hong-Jie; Zhou, Zhe-Kun

2014-08-10

Given that most species that have ever existed on earth are extinct, it stands to reason that the evolutionary history can be better understood with fossil taxa. Bauhinia is a typical genus of pantropical intercontinental disjunction among the Asian, African, and American continents. Geographic distribution patterns are better recognized when fossil records and molecular sequences are combined in the analyses. Here, we describe a new macrofossil species of Bauhinia from the Upper Miocene Xiaolongtan Formation in Wenshan County, Southeast Yunnan, China, and elucidate the biogeographic significance through the analyses of molecules and fossils. Morphometric analysis demonstrates that the leaf shapes of B. acuminata, B. championii, B. chalcophylla, B. purpurea, and B. podopetala closely resemble the leaf shapes of the new finding fossil. Phylogenetic relationships among the Bauhinia species were reconstructed using maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference, which inferred that species in Bauhinia species are well-resolved into three main groups. Divergence times were estimated by the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method under a relaxed clock, and inferred that the stem diversification time of Bauhinia was ca. 62.7 Ma. The Asian lineage first diverged at ca. 59.8 Ma, followed by divergence of the Africa lineage starting during the late Eocene, whereas that of the neotropical lineage starting during the middle Miocene. Hypotheses relying on vicariance or continental history to explain pantropical disjunct distributions are dismissed because they require mostly Palaeogene and older tectonic events. We suggest that Bauhinia originated in the middle Paleocene in Laurasia, probably in Asia, implying a possible Tethys Seaway origin or an "Out of Tropical Asia", and dispersal of legumes. Its present pantropical disjunction resulted from disruption of the boreotropical flora by climatic cooling after the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). North Atlantic land bridges (NALB) seem the most plausible route for migration of Bauhinia from Asia to America; and additional aspects of the Bauhinia species distribution are explained by migration and long distance dispersal (LDD) from Eurasia to the African and American continents.

Molecular phylogenetic and dating analyses using mitochondrial DNA sequences of eyelid geckos (Squamata: Eublepharidae).

PubMed

Jonniaux, Pierre; Kumazawa, Yoshinori

2008-01-15

Mitochondrial DNA sequences of approximately 2.3 kbp including the complete NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2 gene and its flanking genes, as well as parts of 12S and 16S rRNA genes were determined from major species of the eyelid gecko family Eublepharidae sensu [Kluge, A.G. 1987. Cladistic relationships in the Gekkonoidea (Squamata, Sauria). Misc. Publ. Mus. Zool. Univ. Michigan 173, 1-54.]. In contrast to previous morphological studies, phylogenetic analyses based on these sequences supported that Eublepharidae and Gekkonidae form a sister group with Pygopodidae, raising the possibility of homoplasious character change in some key features of geckos, such as reduction of movable eyelids and innovation of climbing toe pads. The phylogenetic analyses also provided a well-resolved tree for relationships between the eublepharid species. The Bayesian estimation of divergence times without assuming the molecular clock suggested the Jurassic divergence of Eublepharidae from Gekkonidae and radiations of most eublepharid genera around the Cretaceous. These dating results appeared to be robust against some conditional changes for time estimation, such as gene regions used, taxon representation, and data partitioning. Taken together with geological evidence, these results support the vicariant divergence of Eublepharidae and Gekkonidae by the breakup of Pangea into Laurasia and Gondwanaland, and recent dispersal of two African eublepharid genera from Eurasia to Africa after these landmasses were connected in the Early Miocene.

A Poisson nonnegative matrix factorization method with parameter subspace clustering constraint for endmember extraction in hyperspectral imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Weiwei; Ma, Jun; Yang, Gang; Du, Bo; Zhang, Liangpei

2017-06-01

A new Bayesian method named Poisson Nonnegative Matrix Factorization with Parameter Subspace Clustering Constraint (PNMF-PSCC) has been presented to extract endmembers from Hyperspectral Imagery (HSI). First, the method integrates the liner spectral mixture model with the Bayesian framework and it formulates endmember extraction into a Bayesian inference problem. Second, the Parameter Subspace Clustering Constraint (PSCC) is incorporated into the statistical program to consider the clustering of all pixels in the parameter subspace. The PSCC could enlarge differences among ground objects and helps finding endmembers with smaller spectrum divergences. Meanwhile, the PNMF-PSCC method utilizes the Poisson distribution as the prior knowledge of spectral signals to better explain the quantum nature of light in imaging spectrometer. Third, the optimization problem of PNMF-PSCC is formulated into maximizing the joint density via the Maximum A Posterior (MAP) estimator. The program is finally solved by iteratively optimizing two sub-problems via the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) framework and the FURTHESTSUM initialization scheme. Five state-of-the art methods are implemented to make comparisons with the performance of PNMF-PSCC on both the synthetic and real HSI datasets. Experimental results show that the PNMF-PSCC outperforms all the five methods in Spectral Angle Distance (SAD) and Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE), and especially it could identify good endmembers for ground objects with smaller spectrum divergences.

Comparative phylogeography reveals deep lineages and regional evolutionary hotspots in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Dustin A.; Vandergast, Amy G.; Barr, Kelly R.; Inman, Richard D.; Esque, Todd C.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Fisher, Robert N.

2013-01-01

Aim: We explored lineage diversification within desert-dwelling fauna. Our goals were (1) to determine whether phylogenetic lineages and population expansions were consistent with younger Pleistocene climate fluctuation hypotheses or much older events predicted by pre-Pleistocene vicariance hypotheses, (2) to assess concordance in spatial patterns of genetic divergence and diversity among species and (3) to identify regional evolutionary hotspots of divergence and diversity and assess their conservation status. Location: Mojave, Colorado, and Sonoran Deserts, USA. Methods: We analysed previously published gene sequence data for twelve species. We used Bayesian gene tree methods to estimate lineages and divergence times. Within each lineage, we tested for population expansion and age of expansion using coalescent approaches. We mapped interpopulation genetic divergence and intra-population genetic diversity in a GIS to identify hotspots of highest genetic divergence and diversity and to assess whether protected lands overlapped with evolutionary hotspots. Results: In seven of the 12 species, lineage divergence substantially predated the Pleistocene. Historical population expansion was found in eight species, but expansion events postdated the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in only four. For all species assessed, six hotspots of high genetic divergence and diversity were concentrated in the Colorado Desert, along the Colorado River and in the Mojave/Sonoran ecotone. At least some proportion of the land within each recovered hotspot was categorized as protected, yet four of the six also overlapped with major areas of human development. Main conclusions: Most of the species studied here diversified into distinct Mojave and Sonoran lineages prior to the LGM – supporting older diversification hypotheses. Several evolutionary hotspots were recovered but are not strategically paired with areas of protected land. Long-term preservation of species-level biodiversity would entail selecting areas for protection in Mojave and Sonoran Deserts to retain divergent genetic diversity and ensure connectedness across environmental gradients.

Neogene paleogeography provides context for understanding the origin and spatial distribution of cryptic diversity in a widespread Balkan freshwater amphipod

PubMed Central

Mamos, Tomasz; Bącela-Spychalska, Karolina; Rewicz, Tomasz; Wattier, Remi A.

2017-01-01

Background The Balkans are a major worldwide biodiversity and endemism hotspot. Among the freshwater biota, amphipods are known for their high cryptic diversity. However, little is known about the temporal and paleogeographic aspects of their evolutionary history. We used paleogeography as a framework for understanding the onset of diversification in Gammarus roeselii: (1) we hypothesised that, given the high number of isolated waterbodies in the Balkans, the species is characterised by high level of cryptic diversity, even on a local scale; (2) the long geological history of the region might promote pre-Pleistocene divergence between lineages; (3) given that G. roeselii thrives both in lakes and rivers, its evolutionary history could be linked to the Balkan Neogene paleolake system; (4) we inspected whether the Pleistocene decline of hydrological networks could have any impact on the diversification of G. roeselii. Material and Methods DNA was extracted from 177 individuals collected from 26 sites all over Balkans. All individuals were amplified for ca. 650 bp long fragment of the mtDNA cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI). After defining molecular operational taxonomic units (MOTU) based on COI, 50 individuals were amplified for ca. 900 bp long fragment of the nuclear 28S rDNA. Molecular diversity, divergence, differentiation and historical demography based on COI sequences were estimated for each MOTU. The relative frequency, geographic distribution and molecular divergence between COI haplotypes were presented as a median-joining network. COI was used also to reconstruct time-calibrated phylogeny with Bayesian inference. Probabilities of ancestors’ occurrence in riverine or lacustrine habitats, as well their possible geographic locations, were estimated with the Bayesian method. A Neighbour Joining tree was constructed to illustrate the phylogenetic relationships between 28S rDNA haplotypes. Results We revealed that G. roeselii includes at least 13 cryptic species or molecular operational taxonomic units (MOTUs), mostly of Miocene origin. A substantial Pleistocene diversification within-MOTUs was observed in several cases. We evidenced secondary contacts between very divergent MOTUs and introgression of nDNA. The Miocene ancestors could live in either lacustrine or riverine habitats yet their presumed geographic localisations overlapped with those of the Neogene lakes. Several extant riverine populations had Pleistocene lacustrine ancestors. Discussion Neogene divergence of lineages resulting in substantial cryptic diversity may be a common phenomenon in extant freshwater benthic crustaceans occupying areas that were not glaciated during the Pleistocene. Evolution of G. roeselii could be associated with gradual deterioration of the paleolakes. The within-MOTU diversification might be driven by fragmentation of river systems during the Pleistocene. Extant ancient lakes could serve as local microrefugia during that time. PMID:28265503

Genetic divergence and phylogeographic history of two closely related species (Leucomeris decora and Nouelia insignis) across the 'Tanaka Line' in Southwest China.

PubMed

Zhao, Yu-Juan; Gong, Xun

2015-07-08

Leucomeris decora and Nouelia insignis (Asteraceae) are narrowly and allopatrically distributed species, separated by the important biogeographic boundary Tanaka Line in Southwest China. Previous morphological, cytogenetic and molecular studies suggested that L. decora is sister to N. insignis. However, it is less clear how the two species diverged, whether in full isolation or occurring gene flow across the Tanaka Line. Here, we performed a molecular study at the population level to characterize genetic differentiation and decipher phylogeographic history in two closely related species based on variation examined in plastid and nuclear DNAs using a coalescent-based approach. These morphologically distinct species share plastid DNA (cpDNA) haplotypes. In contrast, Bayesian analysis of nuclear DNA (nDNA) uncovered two distinct clusters corresponding to L. decora and N. insignis. Based on the IMa analysis, no strong indication of migration was detected based on both cpDNA and nDNA sequences. The molecular data pointed to a major west-east split in nuclear DNA between the two species corresponding with the Tanaka Line. The coalescent time estimate for all cpDNA haplotypes dated to the Mid-Late Pleistocene. The estimated demographic parameters showed that the population size of L. decora was similar to that of N. insignis and both experienced limited demographic fluctuations recently. The study revealed comprehensive species divergence and phylogeographic histories of N. insignis and L. decora divided by the Tanaka Line. The phylogeographic pattern inferred from cpDNA reflected ancestrally shared polymorphisms without post-divergence gene flow between species. The marked genealogical lineage divergence in nDNA provided some indication of Tanaka Line for its role as a barrier to plant dispersal, and lent support to its importance in promoting strong population structure and allopatric divergence.

Phylogeography of the Macaronesian Lettuce Species Lactuca watsoniana and L. palmensis (Asteraceae).

PubMed

Dias, Elisabete F; Kilian, Norbert; Silva, Luís; Schaefer, Hanno; Carine, Mark; Rudall, Paula J; Santos-Guerra, Arnoldo; Moura, Mónica

2018-02-24

The phylogenetic relationships and phylogeography of two relatively rare Macaronesian Lactuca species, Lactuca watsoniana (Azores) and L. palmensis (Canary Islands), were, until this date, unclear. Karyological information of the Azorean species was also unknown. For this study, a chromosome count was performed and L. watsoniana showed 2n = 34. A phylogenetic approach was used to clarify the relationships of the Azorean endemic L. watsoniana and the La Palma endemic L. palmensis within the subtribe Lactucinae. Maximum parsimony, Maximum likelihood and Bayesian analysis of a combined molecular dataset (ITS and four chloroplast DNA regions) and molecular clock analyses were performed with the Macaronesian Lactuca species, as well as a TCS haplotype network. The analyses revealed that L. watsoniana and L. palmensis belong to different subclades of the Lactuca clade. Lactuca watsoniana showed a strongly supported phylogenetic relationship with North American species, while L. palmensis was closely related to L. tenerrima and L. inermis, from Europe and Africa. Lactuca watsoniana showed four single-island haplotypes. A divergence time estimation of the Macaronesian lineages was used to examine island colonization pathways. Results obtained with BEAST suggest a divergence of L. palmensis and L. watsoniana clades c. 11 million years ago, L. watsoniana diverged from its North American sister species c. 3.8 million years ago and L. palmensis diverged from its sister L. tenerrima, c. 1.3 million years ago, probably originating from an African ancestral lineage which colonized the Canary Islands. Divergence analyses with *BEAST indicate a more recent divergence of the L. watsoniana crown, c. 0.9 million years ago. In the Azores colonization, in a stepping stone, east-to-west dispersal pattern, associated with geological events might explain the current distribution range of L. watsoniana.

Divergence and codon usage bias of Betanodavirus, a neurotropic pathogen in fish.

PubMed

He, Mei; Teng, Chun-Bo

2015-02-01

Betanodavirus is a small bipartite RNA virus of global economical significance that can cause severe neurological disorders to an increasing number of marine fish species. Herein, to further the understanding of the evolution of betanodavirus, Bayesian coalescent analyses were conducted to the time-stamped entire coding sequences of their RNA polymerase and coat protein genes. Similar moderate nucleotide substitution rates were then estimated for the two genes. According to age calculations, the divergence of the two genes into the four genotypes initiated nearly simultaneously at ∼700 years ago, despite the different scenarios, whereas the seven analyzed chimeric isolates might be the outcomes of a single genetic reassortment event taking place in the early 1980s in Southern Europe. Furthermore, codon usage bias analyses indicated that each gene had influences in addition to mutational bias and codon choice of betanodavirus was not completely complied with that of fish host. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Diversification in the Andes: age and origins of South American Heliotropium lineages (Heliotropiaceae, Boraginales).

PubMed

Luebert, Federico; Hilger, Hartmut H; Weigend, Maximilian

2011-10-01

The uplift of the Andes was a major factor for plant diversification in South America and had significant effects on the climatic patterns at the continental scale. It was crucial for the formation of the arid environments in south-eastern and western South America. However, both the timing of the major stages of the Andean uplift and the onset of aridity in western South America remain controversial. In this paper we examine the hypothesis that the Andean South American groups of Heliotropium originated and diversified in response to Andean orogeny during the late Miocene and a the subsequent development of aridity. To this end, we estimate divergence times and likely biogeographical origins of the major clades in the phylogeny of Heliotropium, using both Bayesian and likelihood methods. Divergence times of all Andean clades in Heliotropium are estimated to be of late Miocene or Pliocene ages. At least three independent Andean diversification events can be recognized within Heliotropium. Timing of the diversification in the Andean lineages Heliotropium sects.Heliothamnus, Cochranea, Heliotrophytum, Hypsogenia, Plagiomeris, Platygyne clearly correspond to a rapid, late Miocene uplift of the Andes and a Pliocene development of arid environments in South America. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The complete mitochondrial genome of dhole Cuon alpinus: phylogenetic analysis and dating evolutionary divergence within Canidae.

PubMed

Zhang, Honghai; Chen, Lei

2011-03-01

The dhole (Cuon alpinus) is the only existent species in the genus Cuon (Carnivora: Canidae). In the present study, the complete mitochondrial genome of the dhole was sequenced. The total length is 16672 base pairs which is the shortest in Canidae. Sequence analysis revealed that most mitochondrial genomic functional regions were highly consistent among canid animals except the CSB domain of the control region. The difference in length among the Canidae mitochondrial genome sequences is mainly due to the number of short segments of tandem repeated in the CSB domain. Phylogenetic analysis was progressed based on the concatenated data set of 14 mitochondrial genes of 8 canid animals by using maximum parsimony (MP), maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian (BI) inference methods. The genera Vulpes and Nyctereutes formed a sister group and split first within Canidae, followed by that in the Cuon. The divergence in the genus Canis was the latest. The divarication of domestic dogs after that of the Canis lupus laniger is completely supported by all the three topologies. Pairwise sequence divergence data of different mitochondrial genes among canid animals were also determined. Except for the synonymous substitutions in protein-coding genes, the control region exhibits the highest sequence divergences. The synonymous rates are approximately two to six times higher than those of the non-synonymous sites except for a slightly higher rate in the non-synonymous substitution between Cuon alpinus and Vulpes vulpes. 16S rRNA genes have a slightly faster sequence divergence than 12S rRNA and tRNA genes. Based on nucleotide substitutions of tRNA genes and rRNA genes, the times since divergence between dhole and other canid animals, and between domestic dogs and three subspecies of wolves were evaluated. The result indicates that Vulpes and Nyctereutes have a close phylogenetic relationship and the divergence of Nyctereutes is a little earlier. The Tibetan wolf may be an archaic pedigree within wolf subspecies. The genetic distance between wolves and domestic dogs is less than that among different subspecies of wolves. The domestication of dogs was about 1.56-1.92 million years ago or even earlier.

Divergent gene copies in the asexual class Bdelloidea (Rotifera) separated before the bdelloid radiation or within bdelloid families.

PubMed

Mark Welch, David B; Cummings, Michael P; Hillis, David M; Meselson, Matthew

2004-02-10

Rotifers of the asexual class Bdelloidea are unusual in possessing two or more divergent copies of every gene that has been examined. Phylogenetic analysis of the heat-shock gene hsp82 and the TATA-box-binding protein gene tbp in multiple bdelloid species suggested that for each gene, each copy belonged to one of two lineages that began to diverge before the bdelloid radiation. Such gene trees are consistent with the two lineages having descended from former alleles that began to diverge after meiotic segregation ceased or from subgenomes of an alloploid ancestor of the bdelloids. However, the original analyses of bdelloid gene-copy divergence used only a single outgroup species and were based on parsimony and neighbor joining. We have now used maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference methods and, for hsp82, multiple outgroups in an attempt to produce more robust gene trees. Here we report that the available data do not unambiguously discriminate between gene trees that root the origin of hsp82 and tbp copy divergence before the bdelloid radiation and those which indicate that the gene copies began to diverge within bdelloid families. The remarkable presence of multiple diverged gene copies in individual genomes is nevertheless consistent with the loss of sex in an ancient ancestor of bdelloids.

Kernel and divergence techniques in high energy physics separations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouř, Petr; Kůs, Václav; Franc, Jiří

2017-10-01

Binary decision trees under the Bayesian decision technique are used for supervised classification of high-dimensional data. We present a great potential of adaptive kernel density estimation as the nested separation method of the supervised binary divergence decision tree. Also, we provide a proof of alternative computing approach for kernel estimates utilizing Fourier transform. Further, we apply our method to Monte Carlo data set from the particle accelerator Tevatron at DØ experiment in Fermilab and provide final top-antitop signal separation results. We have achieved up to 82 % AUC while using the restricted feature selection entering the signal separation procedure.

Total-Evidence Dating under the Fossilized Birth–Death Process

PubMed Central

Zhang, Chi; Stadler, Tanja; Klopfstein, Seraina; Heath, Tracy A.; Ronquist, Fredrik

2016-01-01

Bayesian total-evidence dating involves the simultaneous analysis of morphological data from the fossil record and morphological and sequence data from recent organisms, and it accommodates the uncertainty in the placement of fossils while dating the phylogenetic tree. Due to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, total-evidence dating can also incorporate additional sources of information. Here, we take advantage of this and expand the analysis to include information about fossilization and sampling processes. Our work is based on the recently described fossilized birth–death (FBD) process, which has been used to model speciation, extinction, and fossilization rates that can vary over time in a piecewise manner. So far, sampling of extant and fossil taxa has been assumed to be either complete or uniformly at random, an assumption which is only valid for a minority of data sets. We therefore extend the FBD process to accommodate diversified sampling of extant taxa, which is standard practice in studies of higher-level taxa. We verify the implementation using simulations and apply it to the early radiation of Hymenoptera (wasps, ants, and bees). Previous total-evidence dating analyses of this data set were based on a simple uniform tree prior and dated the initial radiation of extant Hymenoptera to the late Carboniferous (309 Ma). The analyses using the FBD prior under diversified sampling, however, date the radiation to the Triassic and Permian (252 Ma), slightly older than the age of the oldest hymenopteran fossils. By exploring a variety of FBD model assumptions, we show that it is mainly the accommodation of diversified sampling that causes the push toward more recent divergence times. Accounting for diversified sampling thus has the potential to close the long-discussed gap between rocks and clocks. We conclude that the explicit modeling of fossilization and sampling processes can improve divergence time estimates, but only if all important model aspects, including sampling biases, are adequately addressed. PMID:26493827

Total-Evidence Dating under the Fossilized Birth-Death Process.

PubMed

Zhang, Chi; Stadler, Tanja; Klopfstein, Seraina; Heath, Tracy A; Ronquist, Fredrik

2016-03-01

Bayesian total-evidence dating involves the simultaneous analysis of morphological data from the fossil record and morphological and sequence data from recent organisms, and it accommodates the uncertainty in the placement of fossils while dating the phylogenetic tree. Due to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, total-evidence dating can also incorporate additional sources of information. Here, we take advantage of this and expand the analysis to include information about fossilization and sampling processes. Our work is based on the recently described fossilized birth-death (FBD) process, which has been used to model speciation, extinction, and fossilization rates that can vary over time in a piecewise manner. So far, sampling of extant and fossil taxa has been assumed to be either complete or uniformly at random, an assumption which is only valid for a minority of data sets. We therefore extend the FBD process to accommodate diversified sampling of extant taxa, which is standard practice in studies of higher-level taxa. We verify the implementation using simulations and apply it to the early radiation of Hymenoptera (wasps, ants, and bees). Previous total-evidence dating analyses of this data set were based on a simple uniform tree prior and dated the initial radiation of extant Hymenoptera to the late Carboniferous (309 Ma). The analyses using the FBD prior under diversified sampling, however, date the radiation to the Triassic and Permian (252 Ma), slightly older than the age of the oldest hymenopteran fossils. By exploring a variety of FBD model assumptions, we show that it is mainly the accommodation of diversified sampling that causes the push toward more recent divergence times. Accounting for diversified sampling thus has the potential to close the long-discussed gap between rocks and clocks. We conclude that the explicit modeling of fossilization and sampling processes can improve divergence time estimates, but only if all important model aspects, including sampling biases, are adequately addressed. ©The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

Iterative Calibration: A Novel Approach for Calibrating the Molecular Clock Using Complex Geological Events.

PubMed

Loeza-Quintana, Tzitziki; Adamowicz, Sarah J

2018-02-01

During the past 50 years, the molecular clock has become one of the main tools for providing a time scale for the history of life. In the era of robust molecular evolutionary analysis, clock calibration is still one of the most basic steps needing attention. When fossil records are limited, well-dated geological events are the main resource for calibration. However, biogeographic calibrations have often been used in a simplistic manner, for example assuming simultaneous vicariant divergence of multiple sister lineages. Here, we propose a novel iterative calibration approach to define the most appropriate calibration date by seeking congruence between the dates assigned to multiple allopatric divergences and the geological history. Exploring patterns of molecular divergence in 16 trans-Bering sister clades of echinoderms, we demonstrate that the iterative calibration is predominantly advantageous when using complex geological or climatological events-such as the opening/reclosure of the Bering Strait-providing a powerful tool for clock dating that can be applied to other biogeographic calibration systems and further taxa. Using Bayesian analysis, we observed that evolutionary rate variability in the COI-5P gene is generally distributed in a clock-like fashion for Northern echinoderms. The results reveal a large range of genetic divergences, consistent with multiple pulses of trans-Bering migrations. A resulting rate of 2.8% pairwise Kimura-2-parameter sequence divergence per million years is suggested for the COI-5P gene in Northern echinoderms. Given that molecular rates may vary across latitudes and taxa, this study provides a new context for dating the evolutionary history of Arctic marine life.

Probabilistic inversion of expert assessments to inform projections about Antarctic ice sheet responses.

PubMed

Fuller, Robert William; Wong, Tony E; Keller, Klaus

2017-01-01

The response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to changing global temperatures is a key component of sea-level projections. Current projections of the AIS contribution to sea-level changes are deeply uncertain. This deep uncertainty stems, in part, from (i) the inability of current models to fully resolve key processes and scales, (ii) the relatively sparse available data, and (iii) divergent expert assessments. One promising approach to characterizing the deep uncertainty stemming from divergent expert assessments is to combine expert assessments, observations, and simple models by coupling probabilistic inversion and Bayesian inversion. Here, we present a proof-of-concept study that uses probabilistic inversion to fuse a simple AIS model and diverse expert assessments. We demonstrate the ability of probabilistic inversion to infer joint prior probability distributions of model parameters that are consistent with expert assessments. We then confront these inferred expert priors with instrumental and paleoclimatic observational data in a Bayesian inversion. These additional constraints yield tighter hindcasts and projections. We use this approach to quantify how the deep uncertainty surrounding expert assessments affects the joint probability distributions of model parameters and future projections.

Phylogeny and diversity of neotropical monkey lizards (Iguanidae: Polychrus Cuvier, 1817).

PubMed

Torres-Carvajal, Omar; Koch, Claudia; Venegas, Pablo J; Poe, Steve

2017-01-01

Neotropical monkey lizards (Polychrus) are arboreal lizards with compressed bodies, partially fused eyelids and strikingly long, whip-like tails. The eight currently recognized species occur in the lowlands of South and Central America. Based on the largest taxon and character sampling to date, we analyze three mitochondrial and one nuclear gene using Bayesian methods to (1) infer the phylogeny of Polychrus under both concatenated-tree and species-tree methods; (2) identify lineages that could represent putative undescribed species; and (3) estimate divergence times. Our species tree places P. acutirostris as the sister taxon to all other species of Polychrus. While the phylogenetic position of P. gutturosus and P. peruvianus is poorly resolved, P. marmoratus and P. femoralis are strongly supported as sister to P. liogaster and P. jacquelinae, respectively. Recognition of P. auduboni and P. marmoratus sensu stricto as distinct species indicates that the populations of "P. marmoratus" from the Amazon and the Atlantic coast in Brazil represent separate species. Similarly, populations of P. femoralis from the Tumbes region might belong to a cryptic undescribed species. Relative divergence times and published age estimates suggest that the orogeny of the Andes did not play a significant role in the early evolution of Polychrus.

Phylogeny and diversity of neotropical monkey lizards (Iguanidae: Polychrus Cuvier, 1817)

PubMed Central

Venegas, Pablo J.; Poe, Steve

2017-01-01

Neotropical monkey lizards (Polychrus) are arboreal lizards with compressed bodies, partially fused eyelids and strikingly long, whip-like tails. The eight currently recognized species occur in the lowlands of South and Central America. Based on the largest taxon and character sampling to date, we analyze three mitochondrial and one nuclear gene using Bayesian methods to (1) infer the phylogeny of Polychrus under both concatenated-tree and species-tree methods; (2) identify lineages that could represent putative undescribed species; and (3) estimate divergence times. Our species tree places P. acutirostris as the sister taxon to all other species of Polychrus. While the phylogenetic position of P. gutturosus and P. peruvianus is poorly resolved, P. marmoratus and P. femoralis are strongly supported as sister to P. liogaster and P. jacquelinae, respectively. Recognition of P. auduboni and P. marmoratus sensu stricto as distinct species indicates that the populations of "P. marmoratus" from the Amazon and the Atlantic coast in Brazil represent separate species. Similarly, populations of P. femoralis from the Tumbes region might belong to a cryptic undescribed species. Relative divergence times and published age estimates suggest that the orogeny of the Andes did not play a significant role in the early evolution of Polychrus. PMID:28570575

Rate variation and estimation of divergence times using strict and relaxed clocks.

PubMed

Brown, Richard P; Yang, Ziheng

2011-09-26

Understanding causes of biological diversity may be greatly enhanced by knowledge of divergence times. Strict and relaxed clock models are used in Bayesian estimation of divergence times. We examined whether: i) strict clock models are generally more appropriate in shallow phylogenies where rate variation is expected to be low, ii) the likelihood ratio test of the clock (LRT) reliably informs which model is appropriate for dating divergence times. Strict and relaxed models were used to analyse sequences simulated under different levels of rate variation. Published shallow phylogenies (Black bass, Primate-sucking lice, Podarcis lizards, Gallotiinae lizards, and Caprinae mammals) were also analysed to determine natural levels of rate variation relative to the performance of the different models. Strict clock analyses performed well on data simulated under the independent rates model when the standard deviation of log rate on branches, σ, was low (≤ 0.1), but were inappropriate when σ>0.1 (95% of rates fall within 0.0082-0.0121 subs/site/Ma when σ = 0.1, for a mean rate of 0.01). The independent rates relaxed clock model performed well at all levels of rate variation, although posterior intervals on times were significantly wider than for the strict clock. The strict clock is therefore superior when rate variation is low. The performance of a correlated rates relaxed clock model was similar to the strict clock. Increased numbers of independent loci led to slightly narrower posteriors under the relaxed clock while older root ages provided proportionately narrower posteriors. The LRT had low power for σ = 0.01-0.1, but high power for σ = 0.5-2.0. Posterior means of σ2 were useful for assessing rate variation in published datasets. Estimates of natural levels of rate variation ranged from 0.05-3.38 for different partitions. Differences in divergence times between relaxed and strict clock analyses were greater in two datasets with higher σ2 for one or more partitions, supporting the simulation results. The strict clock can be superior for trees with shallow roots because of low levels of rate variation between branches. The LRT allows robust assessment of suitability of the clock model as does examination of posteriors on σ2.

Evolution of a Planktonic Foraminifer during Environmental Changes in the Tropical Oceans.

PubMed

Ujiié, Yurika; Ishitani, Yoshiyuki

2016-01-01

Ecological adaptation to environmental changes is a strong driver of evolution, enabling speciation of pelagic plankton in the open ocean without the presence of effective physical barriers to gene flow. The tropical ocean environment, which plays an important role in shaping marine biodiversity, has drastically and frequently changed since the Pliocene. Nevertheless, the evolutionary history of tropical pelagic plankton has been poorly understood, as phylogeographic investigations are still in the developing state and paleontological approaches are insufficient to obtain a sequential record from the deep-sea sediments. The planktonic foraminifer Pulleniatina obliquiloculata is widely distributed in the tropical area throughout the world's oceans, and its phylogeography is well established. It is thus one of the best candidates to examine how past environmental changes may have shifted the spatial distribution and affected the diversification of tropical pelagic plankton. Such an examination requires the divergence history of the planktonic foraminifers, yet the gene marker (partial small subunit (SSU) rDNA) previously used for phylogeographic studies was not powerful enough to achieve a high accuracy in estimating the divergence times. The present study focuses on improving the precision of divergence time estimates for the splits between sibling species (genetic types) of planktonic foraminifers by increasing the number of genes as well as the number of nucleotide bases used for molecular clock estimates. We have amplified the entire coding regions of two ribosomal RNA genes (SSU rDNA and large subunit (LSU) rDNA) of three genetic types of P. obliquiloculata and two closely related species for the first time and applied them to the Bayesian relaxed clock method. The comparison of the credible intervals of the four datasets consisting either of sequences of the partial SSU rDNA, the complete SSU rDNA, LSU rDNA, or a combination of both genes (SSU+LSU) clearly demonstrated that the two-gene dataset improved the accuracy of divergence time estimates. The P. obliquiloculata lineage diverged twice, first at the end of the Pliocene (3.1 Ma) and again in the middle Pleistocene (1.4 Ma). Both timings coincided with the environmental changes, which indirectly involved geographic separation of populations. The habitat of P. obliquiloculata was expanded toward the higher latitudinal zones during the stable warm periods and subsequently placed on the steep environmental gradients following the global cooling. Different environmental conditions in the stable warm tropics and unstable higher latitudes may have triggered ecological divergence among the populations, leading to adaptive differentiation and eventually speciation. A comprehensive analysis of divergence time estimates combined with phylogeography enabled us to reveal the evolutionary history of the pelagic plankton and to find the potential paleoenvironmental events, which could have changed their biogeography and ecology.

Mitochondrial DNA Detects a Complex Evolutionary History with Pleistocene Epoch Divergence for the Neotropical Malaria Vector Anopheles nuneztovari Sensu Lato

PubMed Central

Scarpassa, Vera Margarete; Conn, Jan E.

2011-01-01

Cryptic species and lineages characterize Anopheles nuneztovari s.l. Gabaldón, an important malaria vector in South America. We investigated the phylogeographic structure across the range of this species with cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) mitochondrial DNA sequences to estimate the number of clades and levels of divergence. Bayesian and maximum-likelihood phylogenetic analyses detected four groups distributed in two major monophyletic clades (I and II). Samples from the Amazon Basin were clustered in clade I, as were subclades II-A and II-B, whereas those from Bolivia/Colombia/Venezuela were restricted to one basal subclade (II-C). These data, together with a statistical parsimony network, confirm results of previous studies that An. nuneztovari is a species complex consisting of at least two cryptic taxa, one occurring in Colombia and Venezuela and the another occurring in the Amazon Basin. These data also suggest that additional incipient species may exist in the Amazon Basin. Divergence time and expansion tests suggested that these groups separated and expanded in the Pleistocene Epoch. In addition, the COI sequences clearly separated An. nuneztovari s.l. from the closely related species An. dunhami Causey, and three new records are reported for An. dunhami in Amazonian Brazil. These findings are relevant for vector control programs in areas where both species occur. Our analyses support dynamic geologic and landscape changes in northern South America, and infer particularly active divergence during the Pleistocene Epoch for New World anophelines. PMID:22049039

Evaluation of DNA barcoding and identification of new haplomorphs in Canadian deerflies and horseflies.

PubMed

Cywinska, A; Hannan, M A; Kevan, P G; Roughley, R E; Iranpour, M; Hunter, F F

2010-12-01

This paper reports the first tests of the suitability of the standardized mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) barcoding system for the identification of Canadian deerflies and horseflies. Two additional mitochondrial molecular markers were used to determine whether unambiguous species recognition in tabanids can be achieved. Our 332 Canadian tabanid samples yielded 650 sequences from five genera and 42 species. Standard COI barcodes demonstrated a strong A + T bias (mean 68.1%), especially at third codon positions (mean 93.0%). Our preliminary test of this system showed that the standard COI barcode worked well for Canadian Tabanidae: the target DNA can be easily recovered from small amounts of insect tissue and aligned for all tabanid taxa. Each tabanid species possessed distinctive sets of COI haplotypes which discriminated well among species. Average conspecific Kimura two-parameter (K2P) divergence (0.49%) was 12 times lower than the average divergence within species. Both the neighbour-joining and the Bayesian methods produced trees with identical monophyletic species groups. Two species, Chrysops dawsoni Philip and Chrysops montanus Osten Sacken (Diptera: Tabanidae), showed relatively deep intraspecific sequence divergences (∼ 10 times the average) for all three mitochondrial gene regions analysed. We suggest provisional differentiation of Ch. montanus into two haplotypes, namely, Ch. montanus haplomorph 1 and Ch. montanus haplomorph 2, both defined by their molecular sequences and by newly discovered differences in structural features near their ocelli. © 2010 Brock University. Medical and Veterinary Entomology © 2010 The Royal Entomological Society.

A Simple Method for Estimating Informative Node Age Priors for the Fossil Calibration of Molecular Divergence Time Analyses

PubMed Central

Nowak, Michael D.; Smith, Andrew B.; Simpson, Carl; Zwickl, Derrick J.

2013-01-01

Molecular divergence time analyses often rely on the age of fossil lineages to calibrate node age estimates. Most divergence time analyses are now performed in a Bayesian framework, where fossil calibrations are incorporated as parametric prior probabilities on node ages. It is widely accepted that an ideal parameterization of such node age prior probabilities should be based on a comprehensive analysis of the fossil record of the clade of interest, but there is currently no generally applicable approach for calculating such informative priors. We provide here a simple and easily implemented method that employs fossil data to estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade, which can be used to fit an informative parametric prior probability distribution on a node age. Specifically, our method uses the extant diversity and the stratigraphic distribution of fossil lineages confidently assigned to a clade to fit a branching model of lineage diversification. Conditioning this on a simple model of fossil preservation, we estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade. The likelihood surface of missing history can then be translated into a parametric prior probability distribution on the age of the clade of interest. We show that the method performs well with simulated fossil distribution data, but that the likelihood surface of missing history can at times be too complex for the distribution-fitting algorithm employed by our software tool. An empirical example of the application of our method is performed to estimate echinoid node ages. A simulation-based sensitivity analysis using the echinoid data set shows that node age prior distributions estimated under poor preservation rates are significantly less informative than those estimated under high preservation rates. PMID:23755303

Evolutionary history of Otophysi (Teleostei), a major clade of the modern freshwater fishes: Pangaean origin and Mesozoic radiation

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Freshwater harbors approximately 12,000 fish species accounting for 43% of the diversity of all modern fish. A single ancestral lineage evolved into about two-thirds of this enormous biodiversity (≈ 7900 spp.) and is currently distributed throughout the world's continents except Antarctica. Despite such remarkable species diversity and ubiquity, the evolutionary history of this major freshwater fish clade, Otophysi, remains largely unexplored. To gain insight into the history of otophysan diversification, we constructed a timetree based on whole mitogenome sequences across 110 species representing 55 of the 64 families. Results Partitioned maximum likelihood analysis based on unambiguously aligned sequences (9923 bp) confidently recovered the monophyly of Otophysi and the two constituent subgroups (Cypriniformes and Characiphysi). The latter clade comprised three orders (Gymnotiformes, Characiformes, Siluriformes), and Gymnotiformes was sister to the latter two groups. One of the two suborders in Characiformes (Characoidei) was more closely related to Siluriformes than to its own suborder (Citharinoidei), rendering the characiforms paraphyletic. Although this novel relationship did not receive strong statistical support, it was supported by analyzing independent nuclear markers. A relaxed molecular clock Bayesian analysis of the divergence times and reconstruction of ancestral habitats on the timetree suggest a Pangaean origin and Mesozoic radiation of otophysans. Conclusions The present timetree demonstrates that survival of the ancestral lineages through the two consecutive mass extinctions on Pangaea, and subsequent radiations during the Jurassic through early Cretaceous shaped the modern familial diversity of otophysans. This evolutionary scenario is consistent with recent arguments based on biogeographic inferences and molecular divergence time estimates. No fossil otophysan, however, has been recorded before the Albian, the early Cretaceous 100-112 Ma, creating an over 100 million year time span without fossil evidence. This formidable ghost range partially reflects a genuine difference between the estimated ages of stem group origin (molecular divergence time) and crown group morphological diversification (fossil divergence time); the ghost range, however, would be filled with discoveries of older fossils that can be used as more reasonable time constraints as well as with developments of more realistic models that capture the rates of molecular sequences accurately. PMID:21693066

Evolutionary history of Otophysi (Teleostei), a major clade of the modern freshwater fishes: Pangaean origin and Mesozoic radiation.

PubMed

Nakatani, Masanori; Miya, Masaki; Mabuchi, Kohji; Saitoh, Kenji; Nishida, Mutsumi

2011-06-22

Freshwater harbors approximately 12,000 fish species accounting for 43% of the diversity of all modern fish. A single ancestral lineage evolved into about two-thirds of this enormous biodiversity (≈ 7900 spp.) and is currently distributed throughout the world's continents except Antarctica. Despite such remarkable species diversity and ubiquity, the evolutionary history of this major freshwater fish clade, Otophysi, remains largely unexplored. To gain insight into the history of otophysan diversification, we constructed a timetree based on whole mitogenome sequences across 110 species representing 55 of the 64 families. Partitioned maximum likelihood analysis based on unambiguously aligned sequences (9923 bp) confidently recovered the monophyly of Otophysi and the two constituent subgroups (Cypriniformes and Characiphysi). The latter clade comprised three orders (Gymnotiformes, Characiformes, Siluriformes), and Gymnotiformes was sister to the latter two groups. One of the two suborders in Characiformes (Characoidei) was more closely related to Siluriformes than to its own suborder (Citharinoidei), rendering the characiforms paraphyletic. Although this novel relationship did not receive strong statistical support, it was supported by analyzing independent nuclear markers. A relaxed molecular clock Bayesian analysis of the divergence times and reconstruction of ancestral habitats on the timetree suggest a Pangaean origin and Mesozoic radiation of otophysans. The present timetree demonstrates that survival of the ancestral lineages through the two consecutive mass extinctions on Pangaea, and subsequent radiations during the Jurassic through early Cretaceous shaped the modern familial diversity of otophysans. This evolutionary scenario is consistent with recent arguments based on biogeographic inferences and molecular divergence time estimates. No fossil otophysan, however, has been recorded before the Albian, the early Cretaceous 100-112 Ma, creating an over 100 million year time span without fossil evidence. This formidable ghost range partially reflects a genuine difference between the estimated ages of stem group origin (molecular divergence time) and crown group morphological diversification (fossil divergence time); the ghost range, however, would be filled with discoveries of older fossils that can be used as more reasonable time constraints as well as with developments of more realistic models that capture the rates of molecular sequences accurately.

Divergence of cryptic species of Doryteuthis plei Blainville, 1823 (Loliginidae, Cephalopoda) in the Western Atlantic Ocean is associated with the formation of the Caribbean Sea.

PubMed

Sales, João Bráullio de L; Rodrigues-Filho, Luis F da S; Ferreira, Yrlene do S; Carneiro, Jeferson; Asp, Nils E; Shaw, Paul W; Haimovici, Manuel; Markaida, Unai; Ready, Jonathan; Schneider, Horacio; Sampaio, Iracilda

2017-01-01

Although recent years have seen an increase in genetic analyses that identify new species of cephalopods and phylogeographic patterns, the loliginid squid of South America remain one of the least studied groups. The suggestion that Doryteuthis plei may represent distinct lineages within its extensive distribution along the western Atlantic coasts from Cape Hatteras, USA (36°N) to northern Argentina (35°S) is consistent with significant variation in a number of environmental variables along this range including in both temperature and salinity. In the present study D. plei samples were obtained from a large number of localities along the western Atlantic coasts to investigate the distribution of these possible species in a phylogeographic context. Phylogeographic analyses were performed using the mitochondrial Cytochrome Oxidase I gene and nuclear Rhodopsin gene. Divergence times were estimated using Bayesian strict clock dating with calibrations based on fossil records for divergence from the lineage containing Vampyroteuthis infernalis (162mya), the probable origins of the North American loliginids (45mya), and the European loliginids (20mya) and fossil statolith from Doryteuthis opalescens (3mya). Our results suggest a deep genetic divergence within Doryteuthis plei. The currently described specie consists of two genetically distinct clades (pair-wise genetic divergence of between 7.7 and 9.1%). One clade composed of individuals collected in northwestern Atlantic and Central Caribbean Atlantic waters and the other from southwestern Atlantic waters. The divergence time and sampling locations suggest the speciation process at approximately 16Mya, which is in full agreement with the middle Miocene orogeny of the Caribbean plate, ending up with the formation of the Lesser Antilles and the adjacent subduction zone, coinciding with a particularly low global sea level, resulting in the practical absence of continental shelves at the area, and therefore an effective geographic barrier for D. plei. Furthermore, this study also provides evidence of previously undocumented sub-population structuring in the Gulf of Mexico. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evidence for cryptic northern refugia in the last glacial period in Cryptomeria japonica

PubMed Central

Kimura, Megumi K.; Uchiyama, Kentaro; Nakao, Katsuhiro; Moriguchi, Yoshinari; San Jose-Maldia, Lerma; Tsumura, Yoshihiko

2014-01-01

Background and Aims Distribution shifts and natural selection during past climatic changes are important factors in determining the genetic structure of forest species. In particular, climatic fluctuations during the Quaternary appear to have caused changes in the distribution ranges of plants, and thus strongly affected their genetic structure. This study was undertaken to identify the responses of the conifer Cryptomeria japonica, endemic to the Japanese Archipelago, to past climatic changes using a combination of phylogeography and species distribution modelling (SDM) methods. Specifically, this study focused on the locations of refugia during the last glacial maximum (LGM). Methods Genetic diversity and structure were examined using 20 microsatellite markers in 37 populations of C. japonica. The locations of glacial refugia were assessed using STRUCTURE analysis, and potential habitats under current and past climate conditions were predicted using SDM. The process of genetic divergence was also examined using the approximate Bayesian computation procedure (ABC) in DIY ABC to test the divergence time between the gene pools detected by the STRUCTURE analysis. Key Results STRUCTURE analysis identified four gene pools: northern Tohoku district; from Chubu to Chugoku district; from Tohoku to Shikoku district on the Pacific Ocean side of the Archipelago; and Yakushima Island. DIY ABC analysis indicated that the four gene pools diverged at the same time before the LGM. SDM also indicated potential northern cryptic refugia. Conclusions The combined evidence from microsatellites and SDM clearly indicates that climatic changes have shaped the genetic structure of C. japonica. The gene pool detected in northern Tohoku district is likely to have been established by cryptic northern refugia on the coast of the Japan Sea to the west of the Archipelago. The gene pool in Yakushima Island can probably be explained simply by long-term isolation from the other gene pools since the LGM. These results are supported by those of SDM and the predicted divergence time determined using ABC analysis. PMID:25355521

Australasian orchid biogeography at continental scale: molecular phylogenetic insights from the sun orchids (Thelymitra, Orchidaceae).

PubMed

Nauheimer, Lars; Schley, Rowan J; Clements, Mark A; Micheneau, Claire; Nargar, Katharina

2018-06-02

Australia harbours a rich and highly endemic orchid flora, with c. 90 % of species endemic to the country. Despite that, the biogeographic history of Australasian orchid lineages is only poorly understood. Here we examined evolutionary relationships and the spatio-temporal evolution of the sun orchids (Thelymitra, 119 species), which display disjunct distribution patterns frequently found in Australasian orchid lineages. Phylogenetic analyses were conducted based on one nuclear (ITS) and three plastid markers (matK, psbJ-petA, ycf1) using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian inference. Divergence time estimations were carried out with a relaxed molecular clock in a Bayesian framework. Ancestral ranges were estimated using the dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis model and an area coding based on major disjunctions. The phylogenetic analyses clarified intergeneric relationships within Thelymitrinae, with Epiblema being sister to Thelymitra plus Calochilus, both of which were well-supported. Within Thelymitra, eight major and several minor clades were retrieved in the nuclear and plastid phylogenetic reconstructions. Five major clades corresponded to species complexes previously recognized based on morphological characters, whereas other previously recognized species groups were found to be paraphyletic. Conflicting signals between the nuclear and plastid phylogenetic reconstructions provided support for hybridization and plastid capture events both in the deeper evolutionary history of the genus and more recently. Divergence time estimation placed the origin of Thelymitra in the late Miocene (c. 10.8 Ma) and the origin of the majority of the main clades within Thelymitra during the late Pliocene and early Pleistocene, with the majority of extant species arising during the Pleistocene. Ancestral range reconstruction revealed that the early diversification of the genus in the late Miocene and Pliocene took place predominantly in southwest Australia, where most species with highly restricted distributional ranges occur. Several long-distance dispersal events eastwards across the Nullarbor Plain were inferred, recurrently resulting in lineage divergence within the genus. The predominant eastwards direction of long-distance dispersal events in Thelymitra highlights the importance of the West Wind Drift for the present-day distribution of the genus, giving rise to the Thelymitra floras of Tasmania, New Zealand and New Caledonia, which were inferred to be of comparatively recent origin. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

On the statistical properties of viral misinformation in online social media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bessi, Alessandro

2017-03-01

The massive diffusion of online social media allows for the rapid and uncontrolled spreading of conspiracy theories, hoaxes, unsubstantiated claims, and false news. Such an impressive amount of misinformation can influence policy preferences and encourage behaviors strongly divergent from recommended practices. In this paper, we study the statistical properties of viral misinformation in online social media. By means of methods belonging to Extreme Value Theory, we show that the number of extremely viral posts over time follows a homogeneous Poisson process, and that the interarrival times between such posts are independent and identically distributed, following an exponential distribution. Moreover, we characterize the uncertainty around the rate parameter of the Poisson process through Bayesian methods. Finally, we are able to derive the predictive posterior probability distribution of the number of posts exceeding a certain threshold of shares over a finite interval of time.

A total-evidence approach to dating with fossils, applied to the early radiation of the hymenoptera.

PubMed

Ronquist, Fredrik; Klopfstein, Seraina; Vilhelmsen, Lars; Schulmeister, Susanne; Murray, Debra L; Rasnitsyn, Alexandr P

2012-12-01

Phylogenies are usually dated by calibrating interior nodes against the fossil record. This relies on indirect methods that, in the worst case, misrepresent the fossil information. Here, we contrast such node dating with an approach that includes fossils along with the extant taxa in a Bayesian total-evidence analysis. As a test case, we focus on the early radiation of the Hymenoptera, mostly documented by poorly preserved impression fossils that are difficult to place phylogenetically. Specifically, we compare node dating using nine calibration points derived from the fossil record with total-evidence dating based on 343 morphological characters scored for 45 fossil (4--20 complete) and 68 extant taxa. In both cases we use molecular data from seven markers (∼5 kb) for the extant taxa. Because it is difficult to model speciation, extinction, sampling, and fossil preservation realistically, we develop a simple uniform prior for clock trees with fossils, and we use relaxed clock models to accommodate rate variation across the tree. Despite considerable uncertainty in the placement of most fossils, we find that they contribute significantly to the estimation of divergence times in the total-evidence analysis. In particular, the posterior distributions on divergence times are less sensitive to prior assumptions and tend to be more precise than in node dating. The total-evidence analysis also shows that four of the seven Hymenoptera calibration points used in node dating are likely to be based on erroneous or doubtful assumptions about the fossil placement. With respect to the early radiation of Hymenoptera, our results suggest that the crown group dates back to the Carboniferous, ∼309 Ma (95% interval: 291--347 Ma), and diversified into major extant lineages much earlier than previously thought, well before the Triassic. [Bayesian inference; fossil dating; morphological evolution; relaxed clock; statistical phylogenetics.].

A Total-Evidence Approach to Dating with Fossils, Applied to the Early Radiation of the Hymenoptera

PubMed Central

Ronquist, Fredrik; Klopfstein, Seraina; Vilhelmsen, Lars; Schulmeister, Susanne; Murray, Debra L.; Rasnitsyn, Alexandr P.

2012-01-01

Abstract Phylogenies are usually dated by calibrating interior nodes against the fossil record. This relies on indirect methods that, in the worst case, misrepresent the fossil information. Here, we contrast such node dating with an approach that includes fossils along with the extant taxa in a Bayesian total-evidence analysis. As a test case, we focus on the early radiation of the Hymenoptera, mostly documented by poorly preserved impression fossils that are difficult to place phylogenetically. Specifically, we compare node dating using nine calibration points derived from the fossil record with total-evidence dating based on 343 morphological characters scored for 45 fossil (4--20 complete) and 68 extant taxa. In both cases we use molecular data from seven markers (∼5 kb) for the extant taxa. Because it is difficult to model speciation, extinction, sampling, and fossil preservation realistically, we develop a simple uniform prior for clock trees with fossils, and we use relaxed clock models to accommodate rate variation across the tree. Despite considerable uncertainty in the placement of most fossils, we find that they contribute significantly to the estimation of divergence times in the total-evidence analysis. In particular, the posterior distributions on divergence times are less sensitive to prior assumptions and tend to be more precise than in node dating. The total-evidence analysis also shows that four of the seven Hymenoptera calibration points used in node dating are likely to be based on erroneous or doubtful assumptions about the fossil placement. With respect to the early radiation of Hymenoptera, our results suggest that the crown group dates back to the Carboniferous, ∼309 Ma (95% interval: 291--347 Ma), and diversified into major extant lineages much earlier than previously thought, well before the Triassic. [Bayesian inference; fossil dating; morphological evolution; relaxed clock; statistical phylogenetics.] PMID:22723471

Insights into the phylogeny of Northern Hemisphere Armillaria: Neighbor-net and Bayesian analyses of translation elongation factor 1-α gene sequences

Treesearch

Ned B. Klopfenstein; Jane E. Stewart; Yuko Ota; John W. Hanna; Bryce A. Richardson; Amy L. Ross-Davis; Ruben D. Elias-Roman; Kari Korhonen; Nenad Keca; Eugenia Iturritxa; Dionicio Alvarado-Rosales; Halvor Solheim; Nicholas J. Brazee; Piotr Lakomy; Michelle R. Cleary; Eri Hasegawa; Taisei Kikuchi; Fortunato Garza-Ocanas; Panaghiotis Tsopelas; Daniel Rigling; Simone Prospero; Tetyana Tsykun; Jean A. Berube; Franck O. P. Stefani; Saeideh Jafarpour; Vladimir Antonin; Michal Tomsovsky; Geral I. McDonald; Stephen Woodward; Mee-Sook Kim

2017-01-01

Armillaria possesses several intriguing characteristics that have inspired wide interest in understanding phylogenetic relationships within and among species of this genus. Nuclear ribosomal DNA sequence–based analyses of Armillaria provide only limited information for phylogenetic studies among widely divergent taxa. More recent studies have shown that translation...

Mitochondrial DNA Reveals Genetic Structuring of Pinna nobilis across the Mediterranean Sea

PubMed Central

Sanna, Daria; Cossu, Piero; Dedola, Gian Luca; Scarpa, Fabio; Maltagliati, Ferruccio; Castelli, Alberto; Franzoi, Piero; Lai, Tiziana; Cristo, Benedetto; Curini-Galletti, Marco; Francalacci, Paolo; Casu, Marco

2013-01-01

Pinna nobilis is the largest endemic Mediterranean marine bivalve. During past centuries, various human activities have promoted the regression of its populations. As a consequence of stringent standards of protection, demographic expansions are currently reported in many sites. The aim of this study was to provide the first large broad-scale insight into the genetic variability of P. nobilis in the area that encompasses the western Mediterranean, Ionian Sea, and Adriatic Sea marine ecoregions. To accomplish this objective twenty-five populations from this area were surveyed using two mitochondrial DNA markers (COI and 16S). Our dataset was then merged with those obtained in other studies for the Aegean and Tunisian populations (eastern Mediterranean), and statistical analyses (Bayesian model-based clustering, median-joining network, AMOVA, mismatch distribution, Tajima’s and Fu’s neutrality tests and Bayesian skyline plots) were performed. The results revealed genetic divergence among three distinguishable areas: (1) western Mediterranean and Ionian Sea; (2) Adriatic Sea; and (3) Aegean Sea and Tunisian coastal areas. From a conservational point of view, populations from the three genetically divergent groups found may be considered as different management units. PMID:23840684

Probabilistic inversion of expert assessments to inform projections about Antarctic ice sheet responses

PubMed Central

Wong, Tony E.; Keller, Klaus

2017-01-01

The response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to changing global temperatures is a key component of sea-level projections. Current projections of the AIS contribution to sea-level changes are deeply uncertain. This deep uncertainty stems, in part, from (i) the inability of current models to fully resolve key processes and scales, (ii) the relatively sparse available data, and (iii) divergent expert assessments. One promising approach to characterizing the deep uncertainty stemming from divergent expert assessments is to combine expert assessments, observations, and simple models by coupling probabilistic inversion and Bayesian inversion. Here, we present a proof-of-concept study that uses probabilistic inversion to fuse a simple AIS model and diverse expert assessments. We demonstrate the ability of probabilistic inversion to infer joint prior probability distributions of model parameters that are consistent with expert assessments. We then confront these inferred expert priors with instrumental and paleoclimatic observational data in a Bayesian inversion. These additional constraints yield tighter hindcasts and projections. We use this approach to quantify how the deep uncertainty surrounding expert assessments affects the joint probability distributions of model parameters and future projections. PMID:29287095

Rapid molecular evolution of human bocavirus revealed by Bayesian coalescent inference.

PubMed

Zehender, Gianguglielmo; De Maddalena, Chiara; Canuti, Marta; Zappa, Alessandra; Amendola, Antonella; Lai, Alessia; Galli, Massimo; Tanzi, Elisabetta

2010-03-01

Human bocavirus (HBoV) is a linear single-stranded DNA virus belonging to the Parvoviridae family that has recently been isolated from the upper respiratory tract of children with acute respiratory infection. All of the strains observed so far segregate into two genotypes (1 and 2) with a low level of polymorphism. Given the recent description of the infection and the lack of epidemiological and molecular data, we estimated the virus's rates of molecular evolution and population dynamics. A dataset of forty-nine dated VP2 sequences, including also eight new isolates obtained from pharyngeal swabs of Italian patients with acute respiratory tract infections, was submitted to phylogenetic analysis. The model parameters, evolutionary rates and population dynamics were co-estimated using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach, and site-specific positive and negative selection was also investigated. Recombination was investigated by seven different methods and one suspected recombinant strain was excluded from further analysis. The estimated mean evolutionary rate of HBoV was 8.6x10(-4)subs/site/year, and that of the 1st+2nd codon positions was more than 15 times less than that of the 3rd codon position. Viral population dynamics analysis revealed that the two known genotypes diverged recently (mean tMRCA: 24 years), and that the epidemic due to HBoV genotype 2 grew exponentially at a rate of 1.01year(-1). Selection analysis of the partial VP2 showed that 8.5% of sites were under significant negative pressure and the absence of positive selection. Our results show that, like other parvoviruses, HBoV is characterised by a rapid evolution. The low level of polymorphism is probably due to a relatively recent divergence between the circulating genotypes and strong purifying selection acting on viral antigens.

Genomic regions with a history of divergent selection affect fitness of hybrids between two butterfly species.

PubMed

Gompert, Zachariah; Lucas, Lauren K; Nice, Chris C; Fordyce, James A; Forister, Matthew L; Buerkle, C Alex

2012-07-01

Speciation is the process by which reproductively isolated lineages arise, and is one of the fundamental means by which the diversity of life increases. Whereas numerous studies have documented an association between ecological divergence and reproductive isolation, relatively little is known about the role of natural selection in genome divergence during the process of speciation. Here, we use genome-wide DNA sequences and Bayesian models to test the hypothesis that loci under divergent selection between two butterfly species (Lycaeides idas and L. melissa) also affect fitness in an admixed population. Locus-specific measures of genetic differentiation between L. idas and L. melissa and genomic introgression in hybrids varied across the genome. The most differentiated genetic regions were characterized by elevated L. idas ancestry in the admixed population, which occurs in L. idas-like habitat, consistent with the hypothesis that local adaptation contributes to speciation. Moreover, locus-specific measures of genetic differentiation (a metric of divergent selection) were positively associated with extreme genomic introgression (a metric of hybrid fitness). Interestingly, concordance of differentiation and introgression was only partial. We discuss multiple, complementary explanations for this partial concordance. © 2012 The Author(s).

Using more than the oldest fossils: dating osmundaceae with three Bayesian clock approaches.

PubMed

Grimm, Guido W; Kapli, Paschalia; Bomfleur, Benjamin; McLoughlin, Stephen; Renner, Susanne S

2015-05-01

A major concern in molecular clock dating is how to use information from the fossil record to calibrate genetic distances from DNA sequences. Here we apply three Bayesian dating methods that differ in how calibration is achieved-"node dating" (ND) in BEAST, "total evidence" (TE) dating in MrBayes, and the "fossilized birth-death" (FBD) in FDPPDiv-to infer divergence times in the royal ferns. Osmundaceae have 16-17 species in four genera, two mainly in the Northern Hemisphere and two in South Africa and Australasia; they are the sister clade to the remaining leptosporangiate ferns. Their fossil record consists of at least 150 species in ∼17 genera. For ND, we used the five oldest fossils, whereas for TE and FBD dating, which do not require forcing fossils to nodes and thus can use more fossils, we included up to 36 rhizomes and frond compression/impression fossils, which for TE dating were scored for 33 morphological characters. We also subsampled 10%, 25%, and 50% of the 36 fossils to assess model sensitivity. FBD-derived divergence ages were generally greater than those inferred from ND; two of seven TE-derived ages agreed with FBD-obtained ages, the others were much younger or much older than ND or FBD ages. We prefer the FBD-derived ages because they best fit the Osmundales fossil record (including Triassic fossils not used in our study). Under the preferred model, the clade encompassing extant Osmundaceae (and many fossils) dates to the latest Paleozoic to Early Triassic; divergences of the extant species occurred during the Neogene. Under the assumption of constant speciation and extinction rates, the FBD approach yielded speciation and extinction rates that overlapped those obtained from just neontological data. However, FBD estimates of speciation and extinction are sensitive to violations in the assumption of continuous fossil sampling; therefore, these estimates should be treated with caution. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Divergent ancestral lineages of newfound hantaviruses harbored by phylogenetically related crocidurine shrew species in Korea

PubMed Central

Arai, Satoru; Gu, Se Hun; Baek, Luck Ju; Tabara, Kenji; Bennett, Shannon; Oh, Hong-Shik; Takada, Nobuhiro; Kang, Hae Ji; Tanaka-Taya, Keiko; Morikawa, Shigeru; Okabe, Nobuhiko; Yanagihara, Richard; Song, Jin-Won

2012-01-01

Spurred by the recent isolation of a novel hantavirus, named Imjin virus (MJNV), from the Ussuri white-toothed shrew (Crocidura lasiura), targeted trapping was conducted for the phylogenetically related Asian lesser white-toothed shrew (Crocidura shantungensis). Pair-wise alignment and comparison of the S, M and L segments of a newfound hantavirus, designated Jeju virus (JJUV), indicated remarkably low nucleotide and amino acid sequence similarity with MJNV. Phylogenetic analyses, using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, showed divergent ancestral lineages for JJUV and MJNV, despite the close phylogenetic relationship of their reservoir soricid hosts. Also, no evidence of host switching was apparent in tanglegrams, generated by TreeMap 2.0β. PMID:22230701

The evolutionary history of Lygodactylus lizards in the South American open diagonal.

PubMed

Lanna, Flávia M; Werneck, Fernanda P; Gehara, Marcelo; Fonseca, Emanuel M; Colli, Guarino R; Sites, Jack W; Rodrigues, Miguel T; Garda, Adrian A

2018-06-12

The Pleistocenic Arc Hypothesis (PAH) posits that South American Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (SDTF) were interconnected during Pleistocene glacial periods, enabling the expansion of species ranges that were subsequently fragmented in interglacial periods, promoting speciation. The lizard genus Lygodactylus occurs in Africa, Madagascar, and South America. Compared to the high diversity of African Lygodactylus, only two species are known to occur in South America, L. klugei and L. wetzeli, distributed in SDTFs and the Chaco, respectively. We use a phylogenetic approach based on mitochondrial (ND2) and nuclear (RAG-1) markers covering the known range of South American Lygodactylus to investigate (i) if they are monophyletic relative to their African congeners, (ii) if their divergence is congruent with the fragmentation of the PAH, and (iii) if cryptic diversity exists within currently recognized species. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses recovered a well-supported monophyletic South American Lygodactylus, presumably resulting from a single trans-Atlantic dispersal event 29 Mya. Species delimitation analyses supported the existence of five putative species, three of them undescribed. Divergence times among L. klugei and the three putative undescribed species, all endemic to the SDTFs, are not congruent with the fragmentation of the PAH. However, fragmentation of the once broader and continuous SDTFs likely influenced the divergence of L. wetzeli in the Chaco and Lygodactylus sp. 3 (in a SDTF enclave in the Cerrado). Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Genetic evidence for subspecies differentiation of the Himalayan marmot, Marmota himalayana, in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

PubMed Central

Lin, Gonghua; Li, Qian; Chen, Jiarui; Qin, Wen; Su, Jianping; Zhang, Tongzuo

2017-01-01

The primary host of plague in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), China, is Marmota himalayana, which plays an essential role in the maintenance, transmission, and prevalence of plague. To achieve a more clear insight into the differentiation of M. himalayana, complete cytochrome b (cyt b) gene and 11 microsatellite loci were analyzed for a total of 423 individuals from 43 localities in the northeast of the QTP. Phylogenetic analyses with maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference methods showed that all derived haplotypes diverged into two primary well-supported monophyletic lineages, I and II, which corresponded to the referential sequences of two recognized subspecies, M. h. himalayana and M. h. robusta, respectively. The divergence between the two lineages was estimated to be at about 1.03 million years ago, nearly synchronously with the divergence between M. baibacina and M. kastschenkoi and much earlier than that between M. vancouverensis and M. caligata. Genetic structure analyses based on the microsatellite dataset detected significant admixture between the two lineages in the mixed region, which verified the intraspecies level of the differentiation between the two lineages. Our results for the first time demonstrated the coexistence of M. h. himalayana and M. h. robusta, and also, determined the distribution range of the two subspecies in the northeast of QTP. We provided fundamental information for more effective plague control in the QTP. PMID:28809943

The Processing of Somatosensory Information Shifts from an Early Parallel into a Serial Processing Mode: A Combined fMRI/MEG Study.

PubMed

Klingner, Carsten M; Brodoehl, Stefan; Huonker, Ralph; Witte, Otto W

2016-01-01

The question regarding whether somatosensory inputs are processed in parallel or in series has not been clearly answered. Several studies that have applied dynamic causal modeling (DCM) to fMRI data have arrived at seemingly divergent conclusions. However, these divergent results could be explained by the hypothesis that the processing route of somatosensory information changes with time. Specifically, we suggest that somatosensory stimuli are processed in parallel only during the early stage, whereas the processing is later dominated by serial processing. This hypothesis was revisited in the present study based on fMRI analyses of tactile stimuli and the application of DCM to magnetoencephalographic (MEG) data collected during sustained (260 ms) tactile stimulation. Bayesian model comparisons were used to infer the processing stream. We demonstrated that the favored processing stream changes over time. We found that the neural activity elicited in the first 100 ms following somatosensory stimuli is best explained by models that support a parallel processing route, whereas a serial processing route is subsequently favored. These results suggest that the secondary somatosensory area (SII) receives information regarding a new stimulus in parallel with the primary somatosensory area (SI), whereas later processing in the SII is dominated by the preprocessed input from the SI.

The tempo and mode of New World monkey evolution and biogeography in the context of phylogenomic analysis.

PubMed

Jameson Kiesling, Natalie M; Yi, Soojin V; Xu, Ke; Gianluca Sperone, F; Wildman, Derek E

2015-01-01

The development and evolution of organisms is heavily influenced by their environment. Thus, understanding the historical biogeography of taxa can provide insights into their evolutionary history, adaptations and trade-offs realized throughout time. In the present study we have taken a phylogenomic approach to infer New World monkey phylogeny, upon which we have reconstructed the biogeographic history of extant platyrrhines. In order to generate sufficient phylogenetic signal within the New World monkey clade, we carried out a large-scale phylogenetic analysis of approximately 40 kb of non-genic genomic DNA sequence in a 36 species subset of extant New World monkeys. Maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference analysis all converged on a single optimal tree topology. Divergence dating and biogeographic analysis reconstruct the timing and geographic location of divergence events. The ancestral area reconstruction describes the geographic locations of the last common ancestor of extant platyrrhines and provides insight into key biogeographic events occurring during platyrrhine diversification. Through these analyses we conclude that the diversification of the platyrrhines took place concurrently with the establishment and diversification of the Amazon rainforest. This suggests that an expanding rainforest environment rather than geographic isolation drove platyrrhine diversification. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Processing of Somatosensory Information Shifts from an Early Parallel into a Serial Processing Mode: A Combined fMRI/MEG Study

PubMed Central

Klingner, Carsten M.; Brodoehl, Stefan; Huonker, Ralph; Witte, Otto W.

2016-01-01

The question regarding whether somatosensory inputs are processed in parallel or in series has not been clearly answered. Several studies that have applied dynamic causal modeling (DCM) to fMRI data have arrived at seemingly divergent conclusions. However, these divergent results could be explained by the hypothesis that the processing route of somatosensory information changes with time. Specifically, we suggest that somatosensory stimuli are processed in parallel only during the early stage, whereas the processing is later dominated by serial processing. This hypothesis was revisited in the present study based on fMRI analyses of tactile stimuli and the application of DCM to magnetoencephalographic (MEG) data collected during sustained (260 ms) tactile stimulation. Bayesian model comparisons were used to infer the processing stream. We demonstrated that the favored processing stream changes over time. We found that the neural activity elicited in the first 100 ms following somatosensory stimuli is best explained by models that support a parallel processing route, whereas a serial processing route is subsequently favored. These results suggest that the secondary somatosensory area (SII) receives information regarding a new stimulus in parallel with the primary somatosensory area (SI), whereas later processing in the SII is dominated by the preprocessed input from the SI. PMID:28066197

Global diversity and oceanic divergence of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae).

PubMed

Jackson, Jennifer A; Steel, Debbie J; Beerli, P; Congdon, Bradley C; Olavarría, Carlos; Leslie, Matthew S; Pomilla, Cristina; Rosenbaum, Howard; Baker, C Scott

2014-07-07

Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) annually undertake the longest migrations between seasonal feeding and breeding grounds of any mammal. Despite this dispersal potential, discontinuous seasonal distributions and migratory patterns suggest that humpbacks form discrete regional populations within each ocean. To better understand the worldwide population history of humpbacks, and the interplay of this species with the oceanic environment through geological time, we assembled mitochondrial DNA control region sequences representing approximately 2700 individuals (465 bp, 219 haplotypes) and eight nuclear intronic sequences representing approximately 70 individuals (3700 bp, 140 alleles) from the North Pacific, North Atlantic and Southern Hemisphere. Bayesian divergence time reconstructions date the origin of humpback mtDNA lineages to the Pleistocene (880 ka, 95% posterior intervals 550-1320 ka) and estimate radiation of current Northern Hemisphere lineages between 50 and 200 ka, indicating colonization of the northern oceans prior to the Last Glacial Maximum. Coalescent analyses reveal restricted gene flow between ocean basins, with long-term migration rates (individual migrants per generation) of less than 3.3 for mtDNA and less than 2 for nuclear genomic DNA. Genetic evidence suggests that humpbacks in the North Pacific, North Atlantic and Southern Hemisphere are on independent evolutionary trajectories, supporting taxonomic revision of M. novaeangliae to three subspecies. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Global diversity and oceanic divergence of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae)

PubMed Central

Jackson, Jennifer A.; Steel, Debbie J.; Beerli, P.; Congdon, Bradley C.; Olavarría, Carlos; Leslie, Matthew S.; Pomilla, Cristina; Rosenbaum, Howard; Baker, C. Scott

2014-01-01

Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) annually undertake the longest migrations between seasonal feeding and breeding grounds of any mammal. Despite this dispersal potential, discontinuous seasonal distributions and migratory patterns suggest that humpbacks form discrete regional populations within each ocean. To better understand the worldwide population history of humpbacks, and the interplay of this species with the oceanic environment through geological time, we assembled mitochondrial DNA control region sequences representing approximately 2700 individuals (465 bp, 219 haplotypes) and eight nuclear intronic sequences representing approximately 70 individuals (3700 bp, 140 alleles) from the North Pacific, North Atlantic and Southern Hemisphere. Bayesian divergence time reconstructions date the origin of humpback mtDNA lineages to the Pleistocene (880 ka, 95% posterior intervals 550–1320 ka) and estimate radiation of current Northern Hemisphere lineages between 50 and 200 ka, indicating colonization of the northern oceans prior to the Last Glacial Maximum. Coalescent analyses reveal restricted gene flow between ocean basins, with long-term migration rates (individual migrants per generation) of less than 3.3 for mtDNA and less than 2 for nuclear genomic DNA. Genetic evidence suggests that humpbacks in the North Pacific, North Atlantic and Southern Hemisphere are on independent evolutionary trajectories, supporting taxonomic revision of M. novaeangliae to three subspecies. PMID:24850919

Phylogeography of the sandy beach amphipod Haustorioides japonicus along the Sea of Japan: Paleogeographical signatures of cryptic regional divergences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takada, Yoshitake; Sakuma, Kay; Fujii, Tetsuo; Kojima, Shigeaki

2018-01-01

Recent findings of genetic breaks within apparently continuous marine populations challenge the traditional vicariance paradigm in population genetics. Such "invisible" boundaries are sometimes associated with potential geographic barriers that have forced divergence of an ancestral population, habitat discontinuities, biogeographic disjunctions due to environmental gradients, or a combination of these factors. To explore the factors that influence the genetic population structure of apparently continuous populations along the Sea of Japan, the sandy beach amphipod Haustorioides japonicus was examined. We sampled a total of 300 individuals of H. japonicus from the coast of Japan, and obtained partial sequences of the mitochondrial COI gene. The sequences from 19 local populations were clustered into five groups (Northwestern Pacific, Northern, Central, Southern Sea of Japan, and East China Sea) based on a spatial genetic mixture analysis and a minimum-spanning network. AMOVA and pairwise Fst tests further supported the significant divergence of the five groups. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the relationship among the haplotypes of H. japonicus and outgroups, which inferred the northward range expansion of the species. A relaxed molecular-clock Bayesian analysis inferred the early-to middle-Pleistocene divergence of the populations. Among the five clusters, the Central Sea of Japan showed the highest values for genetic diversity indices indicating the existence of a relatively stable and large population there. The hypothesis is also supported by Bayesian Skyline Plots that showed sudden population expansion for all the clusters except for Central Sea of Japan. The present study shows genetic boundaries between the Sea of Japan and the neighboring seas, probably due to geographic isolation during the Pleistocene glacial periods. We further found divergence between the populations along the apparently continuous coast of the Sea of Japan. Historical changes in the geographic range of H. japonicus in relation to sandy beach habitat availability, account for the genetic breaks among the three populations in the Sea of Japan. The present results infer that the past geographic events influenced the population formation of H. japonicus.

Divergence times in the termite genus Macrotermes (Isoptera: Termitidae).

PubMed

Brandl, R; Hyodo, F; Korff-Schmising, M von; Maekawa, K; Miura, T; Takematsu, Y; Matsumoto, T; Abe, T; Bagine, R; Kaib, M

2007-10-01

The evolution of fungus-growing termites is supposed to have started in the African rain forests with multiple invasions of semi-arid habitats as well as multiple invasions of the Oriental region. We used sequences of the mitochondrial COII gene and Bayesian dating to investigate the time frame of the evolution of Macrotermes, an important genus of fungus-growing termites. We found that the genus Macrotermes consists of at least 6 distantly related clades. Furthermore, the COII sequences suggested some cryptic diversity within the analysed African Macrotermes species. The dates calculated with the COII data using a fossilized termite mound to calibrate the clock were in good agreement with dates calculated with COI sequences using the split between Locusta and Chortippus as calibration point which supports the consistency of the calibration points. The clades from the Oriental region dated back to the early Tertiary. These estimates of divergence times suggested that Macrotermes invaded Asia during periods with humid climates. For Africa, many speciation events predated the Pleistocene and fall in range of 6-23 million years ago. These estimates suggest that savannah-adapted African clades radiated with the spread of the semi-arid ecosystems during the Miocene. Apparently, events during the Pleistocene were of little importance for speciation within the genus Macrotermes. However, further investigations are necessary to increase the number of taxa for phylogenetic analysis.

Phylogeny and biogeography of the Petaurista philippensis complex (Rodentia: Sciuridae), inter- and intraspecific relationships inferred from molecular and morphometric analysis.

PubMed

Yu, Farong; Yu, Fahong; Pang, Junfeng; Kilpatrick, C William; McGuire, Peter M; Wang, Yingxiang; Lu, Shunqing; Woods, Charles A

2006-03-01

With modified DNA extraction and purification protocols, the complete cytochrome b gene sequences (1140 bp) were determined from degraded museum specimens. Molecular analysis and morphological examination of cranial characteristics of the giant flying squirrels of Petaurista philippensis complex (P. grandis, P. hainana, and P. yunanensis) and other Petaurista species yielded new insights into long-standing controversies in the Petaurista systematics. Patterns of genetic variations and morphological differences observed in this study indicate that P. hainana, P. albiventer, and P. yunanensis can be recognized as distinct species, and P. grandis and P. petaurista are conspecific populations. Phylogenetic relationships reconstructed by using parsimony, likelihood, and Bayesian methods reveal that, with P. leucogenys as the basal branch, all Petaurista groups formed two distinct clades. Petaurista philippensis, P. hainana, P. yunanensis, and P. albiventer are clustered in the same clade, while P. grandis shows a close relationship to P. petaurista. Deduced divergence times based on Bayesian analysis and the transversional substitution at the third codon suggest that the retreating of glaciers and upheavals or movements of tectonic plates in the Pliocene-Pleistocene were the major factors responsible for the present geographical distributions of Petaurista groups.

Phylogeography of speciation: allopatric divergence and secondary contact between outcrossing and selfing Clarkia.

PubMed

Pettengill, James B; Moeller, David A

2012-09-01

The origins of hybrid zones between parapatric taxa have been of particular interest for understanding the evolution of reproductive isolation and the geographic context of species divergence. One challenge has been to distinguish between allopatric divergence (followed by secondary contact) versus primary intergradation (parapatric speciation) as alternative divergence histories. Here, we use complementary phylogeographic and population genetic analyses to investigate the recent divergence of two subspecies of Clarkia xantiana and the formation of a hybrid zone within the narrow region of sympatry. We tested alternative phylogeographic models of divergence using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and found strong support for a secondary contact model and little support for a model allowing for gene flow throughout the divergence process (i.e. primary intergradation). Two independent methods for inferring the ancestral geography of each subspecies, one based on probabilistic character state reconstructions and the other on palaeo-distribution modelling, also support a model of divergence in allopatry and range expansion leading to secondary contact. The membership of individuals to genetic clusters suggests geographic substructure within each taxon where allopatric and sympatric samples are primarily found in separate clusters. We also observed coincidence and concordance of genetic clines across three types of molecular markers, which suggests that there is a strong barrier to gene flow. Taken together, our results provide evidence for allopatric divergence followed by range expansion leading to secondary contact. The location of refugial populations and the directionality of range expansion are consistent with expectations based on climate change since the last glacial maximum. Our approach also illustrates the utility of combining phylogeographic hypothesis testing with species distribution modelling and fine-scale population genetic analyses for inferring the geography of the divergence process. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Diversification in continental island archipelagos: new evidence on the roles of fragmentation, colonization and gene flow on the genetic divergence of Aegean Nigella (Ranunculaceae).

PubMed

Jaros, Ursula; Tribsch, Andreas; Comes, Hans Peter

2018-02-12

Disentangling the relative roles of past fragmentation (vicariance), colonization (dispersal) and post-divergence gene flow in the genetic divergence of continental island organisms remains a formidable challenge. Amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs) were used to (1) gain further insights into the biogeographical processes underlying the Pleistocene diversification of the Aegean Nigella arvensis complex; (2) evaluate the role of potential key factors driving patterns of population genetic variability (mating system, geographical isolation and historical contingencies); and (3) test the robustness of conclusions previously drawn from chloroplast (cp) DNA. Genetic diversity was analysed for 235 AFLP markers from 48 populations (497 individuals) representing 11 taxa of the complex using population genetic methods and Bayesian assignment tests. Most designated taxa are identifiable as genetically distinct units. Both fragmentation and dispersal-driven diversification processes occurred at different geological time scales, from Early to Late Pleistocene, specifically (1) sea barrier-induced vicariant speciation in the Cyclades, the Western Cretan Strait and Ikaria; and (2) bi-regional colonizations of the 'Southern Aegean Island Arc' from the Western vs. Eastern Aegean mainland, followed by allopatric divergences in Crete vs. Rhodos and Karpathos/Kasos. Outcrossing island taxa experienced drift-related demographic processes that are magnified in the two insular selfing species. Population genetic differentiation on the mainland seems largely driven by dispersal limitation, while in the Central Aegean it may still be influenced by historical events (island fragmentation and sporadic long-distance colonization). The biogeographical history of Aegean Nigella is more complex than expected for a strictly allopatric vicariant model of divergence. Nonetheless, the major phylogeographical boundaries of this radiation are largely congruent with the geography and history of islands, with little evidence for ongoing gene exchange between divergent taxa. The present results emphasize the need to investigate further biological and landscape features and contemporary vs. historical processes in driving population divergence and taxon diversification in Aegean plant radiations. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Allotetraploid origin and divergence in Eleusine (Chloridoideae, Poaceae): evidence from low-copy nuclear gene phylogenies and a plastid gene chronogram.

PubMed

Liu, Qing; Triplett, Jimmy K; Wen, Jun; Peterson, Paul M

2011-11-01

Eleusine (Poaceae) is a small genus of the subfamily Chloridoideae exhibiting considerable morphological and ecological diversity in East Africa and the Americas. The interspecific phylogenetic relationships of Eleusine are investigated in order to identify its allotetraploid origin, and a chronogram is estimated to infer temporal relationships between palaeoenvironment changes and divergence of Eleusine in East Africa. Two low-copy nuclear (LCN) markers, Pepc4 and EF-1α, were analysed using parsimony, likelihood and Bayesian approaches. A chronogram of Eleusine was inferred from a combined data set of six plastid DNA markers (ndhA intron, ndhF, rps16-trnK, rps16 intron, rps3, and rpl32-trnL) using the Bayesian dating method. The monophyly of Eleusine is strongly supported by sequence data from two LCN markers. In the cpDNA phylogeny, three tetraploid species (E. africana, E. coracana and E. kigeziensis) share a common ancestor with the E. indica-E. tristachya clade, which is considered a source of maternal parents for allotetraploids. Two homoeologous loci are isolated from three tetraploid species in the Pepc4 phylogeny, and the maternal parents receive further support. The A-type EF-1α sequences possess three characters, i.e. a large number of variations of intron 2; clade E-A distantly diverged from clade E-B and other diploid species; and seven deletions in intron 2, implying a possible derivation through a gene duplication event. The crown age of Eleusine and the allotetraploid lineage are 3·89 million years ago (mya) and 1·40 mya, respectively. The molecular data support independent allotetraploid origins for E. kigeziensis and the E. africana-E. coracana clade. Both events may have involved diploids E. indica and E. tristachya as the maternal parents, but the paternal parents remain unidentified. The habitat-specific hypothesis is proposed to explain the divergence of Eleusine and its allotetraploid lineage.

Allotetraploid origin and divergence in Eleusine (Chloridoideae, Poaceae): evidence from low-copy nuclear gene phylogenies and a plastid gene chronogram

PubMed Central

Liu, Qing; Triplett, Jimmy K.; Wen, Jun; Peterson, Paul M.

2011-01-01

Background and Aims Eleusine (Poaceae) is a small genus of the subfamily Chloridoideae exhibiting considerable morphological and ecological diversity in East Africa and the Americas. The interspecific phylogenetic relationships of Eleusine are investigated in order to identify its allotetraploid origin, and a chronogram is estimated to infer temporal relationships between palaeoenvironment changes and divergence of Eleusine in East Africa. Methods Two low-copy nuclear (LCN) markers, Pepc4 and EF-1α, were analysed using parsimony, likelihood and Bayesian approaches. A chronogram of Eleusine was inferred from a combined data set of six plastid DNA markers (ndhA intron, ndhF, rps16-trnK, rps16 intron, rps3, and rpl32-trnL) using the Bayesian dating method. Key Results The monophyly of Eleusine is strongly supported by sequence data from two LCN markers. In the cpDNA phylogeny, three tetraploid species (E. africana, E. coracana and E. kigeziensis) share a common ancestor with the E. indica–E. tristachya clade, which is considered a source of maternal parents for allotetraploids. Two homoeologous loci are isolated from three tetraploid species in the Pepc4 phylogeny, and the maternal parents receive further support. The A-type EF-1α sequences possess three characters, i.e. a large number of variations of intron 2; clade E-A distantly diverged from clade E-B and other diploid species; and seven deletions in intron 2, implying a possible derivation through a gene duplication event. The crown age of Eleusine and the allotetraploid lineage are 3·89 million years ago (mya) and 1·40 mya, respectively. Conclusions The molecular data support independent allotetraploid origins for E. kigeziensis and the E. africana–E. coracana clade. Both events may have involved diploids E. indica and E. tristachya as the maternal parents, but the paternal parents remain unidentified. The habitat-specific hypothesis is proposed to explain the divergence of Eleusine and its allotetraploid lineage. PMID:21880659

Origin of mitochondrial DNA diversity of domestic yaks

PubMed Central

Guo, Songchang; Savolainen, Peter; Su, Jianping; Zhang, Qian; Qi, Delin; Zhou, Jie; Zhong, Yang; Zhao, Xinquan; Liu, Jianquan

2006-01-01

Background The domestication of plants and animals was extremely important anthropologically. Previous studies have revealed a general tendency for populations of livestock species to include deeply divergent maternal lineages, indicating that they were domesticated in multiple, independent events from genetically discrete wild populations. However, in water buffalo, there are suggestions that a similar deep maternal bifurcation may have originated from a single population. These hypotheses have rarely been rigorously tested because of a lack of sufficient wild samples. To investigate the origin of the domestic yak (Poephagus grunnies), we analyzed 637 bp of maternal inherited mtDNA from 13 wild yaks (including eight wild yaks from a small population in west Qinghai) and 250 domesticated yaks from major herding regions. Results The domestic yak populations had two deeply divergent phylogenetic groups with a divergence time of > 100,000 yrs BP. We here show that haplotypes clustering with two deeply divergent maternal lineages in domesticated yaks occur in a single, small, wild population. This finding suggests that all domestic yaks are derived from a single wild gene pool. However, there is no clear correlation of the mtDNA phylogenetic clades and the 10 morphological types of sampled yaks indicating that the latter diversified recently. Relatively high diversity was found in Qinghai and Tibet around the current wild distribution, in accordance with previous suggestions that the earliest domestications occurred in this region. Conventional molecular clock estimation led to an unrealistic early dating of the start of the domestication. However, Bayesian estimation of the coalescence time allowing a relaxation of the mutation rate are better in agreement with a domestication during the Holocene as supported by archeological records. Conclusion The information gathered here and the previous studies of other animals show that the demographic histories of domestication of livestock species were highly diverse despite the common general feature of deeply divergent maternal lineages. The results further suggest that domestication of local wild prey ungulate animals was a common occurrence during the development of human civilization following the postglacial colonization in different locations of the world, including the high, arid Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. PMID:16995938

Multilocus genetic diversity and historical biogeography of the endemic wall lizard from Ibiza and Formentera, Podarcis pityusensis (Squamata: Lacertidae).

PubMed

Rodríguez, V; Brown, R P; Terrasa, B; Pérez-Mellado, V; Castro, J A; Picornell, A; Ramon, M M

2013-10-01

Two monophyletic sister species of wall lizards inhabit the two main groups of Balearic Islands: Podarcis lilfordi from islets and small islands around Mallorca and Menorca and Podarcis pityusensis from Ibiza, Formentera and associated islets. Genetic diversity within the endangered P. lilfordi has been well characterized, but P. pityusensis has not been studied in depth. Here, 2430 bp of mtDNA and 15 microsatellite loci were analysed from P. pityusensis populations from across its natural range. Two main genetic groupings were identified, although geographical structuring differed slightly between the mtDNA and the nuclear loci. In general, individuals from islets/islands adjacent to the main island of Ibiza were genetically distinct from those from Formentera and the associated Freus islands for both mtDNA and the nuclear loci. However, most individuals from the island of Ibiza were grouped with neighbouring islets/islands for nuclear loci, but with Formentera and Freus islands for the mitochondrial locus. A time-calibrated Bayesian tree was constructed for the principal mitochondrial lineages within the Balearics, using the multispecies coalescent model, and provided statistical support for divergence of the two main P. pityusensis lineages 0.111-0.295 Ma. This suggests a mid-late Pleistocene intraspecific divergence, compared with an early Pleistocene divergence in P. lilfordi, and postdates some major increases in sea level between 0.4 and 0.6 Ma, which may have flooded Formentera. The program IMa2 provided a posterior divergence time of 0.089-0.221 Ma, which was similar to the multispecies coalescent tree estimate. More significantly, it indicated low but asymmetric effective gene copy migration rates, with higher migration from Formentera to Ibiza populations. Our findings suggest that much of the present-day diversity may have originated from a late Pleistocene colonization of one island group from the other, followed by allopatric divergence of these populations. Subsequent gene flow between these insular groups seems likely to be explained by recent human introductions. Two evolutionary significant units can be defined for P. pityusensis but these units would need to exclude the populations that have been the subjects of recent admixture. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Demographic expansion of two Tamarix species along the Yellow River caused by geological events and climate change in the Pleistocene.

PubMed

Liang, Hong-Yan; Feng, Zhi-Pei; Pei, Bing; Li, Yong; Yang, Xi-Tian

2018-01-08

The geological events and climatic fluctuations during the Pleistocene played important roles in shaping patterns of species distribution. However, few studies have evaluated the patterns of species distribution that were influenced by the Yellow River. The present work analyzed the demography of two endemic tree species that are widely distributed along the Yellow River, Tamarix austromongolica and Tamarix chinensis, to understand the role of the Yellow River and Pleistocene climate in shaping their distribution patterns. The most common chlorotype, chlorotype 1, was found in all populations, and its divergence time could be dated back to 0.19 million years ago (Ma). This dating coincides well with the formation of the modern Yellow River and the timing of Marine Isotope Stages 5e-6 (MIS 5e-6). Bayesian reconstructions along with models of paleodistribution revealed that these two species experienced a demographic expansion in population size during the Quaternary period. Approximate Bayesian computation analyses supported a scenario of expansion approximately from the upper to lower reaches of the Yellow River. Our results provide support for the roles of the Yellow River and the Pleistocene climate in driving demographic expansion of the populations of T. austromongolica and T. chinensis. These findings are useful for understanding the effects of geological events and past climatic fluctuations on species distribution patterns.

Phylogenetic Status and Timescale for the Diversification of Steno and Sotalia Dolphins

PubMed Central

Cunha, Haydée A.; Moraes, Lucas C.; Medeiros, Bruna V.; Lailson-Brito, José; da Silva, Vera M. F.; Solé-Cava, Antonio M.; Schrago, Carlos G.

2011-01-01

Molecular data have provided many insights into cetacean evolution but some unsettled issues still remain. We estimated the topology and timing of cetacean evolutionary relationships using Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses of complete mitochondrial genomes. In order to clarify the phylogenetic placement of Sotalia and Steno within the Delphinidae, we sequenced three new delphinid mitogenomes. Our analyses support three delphinid clades: one joining Steno and Sotalia (supporting the revised subfamily Stenoninae); another placing Sousa within the Delphininae; and a third, the Globicephalinae, which includes Globicephala, Feresa, Pseudorca, Peponocephala and Grampus. We also conclude that Orcinus does not belong in the Globicephalinae, but Orcaella may be part of that subfamily. Divergence dates were estimated using the relaxed molecular clock calibrated with fossil data. We hypothesise that the timing of separation of the marine and Amazonian Sotalia species (2.3 Ma) coincided with the establishment of the modern Amazon River basin. PMID:22163290

Phylogenetic status and timescale for the diversification of Steno and Sotalia dolphins.

PubMed

Cunha, Haydée A; Moraes, Lucas C; Medeiros, Bruna V; Lailson-Brito, José; da Silva, Vera M F; Solé-Cava, Antonio M; Schrago, Carlos G

2011-01-01

Molecular data have provided many insights into cetacean evolution but some unsettled issues still remain. We estimated the topology and timing of cetacean evolutionary relationships using bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses of complete mitochondrial genomes. In order to clarify the phylogenetic placement of Sotalia and Steno within the Delphinidae, we sequenced three new delphinid mitogenomes. Our analyses support three delphinid clades: one joining Steno and Sotalia (supporting the revised subfamily Stenoninae); another placing Sousa within the Delphininae; and a third, the Globicephalinae, which includes Globicephala, Feresa, Pseudorca, Peponocephala and Grampus. We also conclude that Orcinus does not belong in the Globicephalinae, but Orcaella may be part of that subfamily. Divergence dates were estimated using the relaxed molecular clock calibrated with fossil data. We hypothesise that the timing of separation of the marine and Amazonian Sotalia species (2.3 Ma) coincided with the establishment of the modern Amazon River basin.

Bayesian analyses of time-interval data for environmental radiation monitoring.

PubMed

Luo, Peng; Sharp, Julia L; DeVol, Timothy A

2013-01-01

Time-interval (time difference between two consecutive pulses) analysis based on the principles of Bayesian inference was investigated for online radiation monitoring. Using experimental and simulated data, Bayesian analysis of time-interval data [Bayesian (ti)] was compared with Bayesian and a conventional frequentist analysis of counts in a fixed count time [Bayesian (cnt) and single interval test (SIT), respectively]. The performances of the three methods were compared in terms of average run length (ARL) and detection probability for several simulated detection scenarios. Experimental data were acquired with a DGF-4C system in list mode. Simulated data were obtained using Monte Carlo techniques to obtain a random sampling of the Poisson distribution. All statistical algorithms were developed using the R Project for statistical computing. Bayesian analysis of time-interval information provided a similar detection probability as Bayesian analysis of count information, but the authors were able to make a decision with fewer pulses at relatively higher radiation levels. In addition, for the cases with very short presence of the source (< count time), time-interval information is more sensitive to detect a change than count information since the source data is averaged by the background data over the entire count time. The relationships of the source time, change points, and modifications to the Bayesian approach for increasing detection probability are presented.

The genomic landscape at a late stage of stickleback speciation: High genomic divergence interspersed by small localized regions of introgression.

PubMed

Ravinet, Mark; Yoshida, Kohta; Shigenobu, Shuji; Toyoda, Atsushi; Fujiyama, Asao; Kitano, Jun

2018-05-01

Speciation is a continuous process and analysis of species pairs at different stages of divergence provides insight into how it unfolds. Previous genomic studies on young species pairs have revealed peaks of divergence and heterogeneous genomic differentiation. Yet less known is how localised peaks of differentiation progress to genome-wide divergence during the later stages of speciation in the presence of persistent gene flow. Spanning the speciation continuum, stickleback species pairs are ideal for investigating how genomic divergence builds up during speciation. However, attention has largely focused on young postglacial species pairs, with little knowledge of the genomic signatures of divergence and introgression in older stickleback systems. The Japanese stickleback species pair, composed of the Pacific Ocean three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) and the Japan Sea stickleback (G. nipponicus), which co-occur in the Japanese islands, is at a late stage of speciation. Divergence likely started well before the end of the last glacial period and crosses between Japan Sea females and Pacific Ocean males result in hybrid male sterility. Here we use coalescent analyses and Approximate Bayesian Computation to show that the two species split approximately 0.68-1 million years ago but that they have continued to exchange genes at a low rate throughout divergence. Population genomic data revealed that, despite gene flow, a high level of genomic differentiation is maintained across the majority of the genome. However, we identified multiple, small regions of introgression, occurring mainly in areas of low recombination rate. Our results demonstrate that a high level of genome-wide divergence can establish in the face of persistent introgression and that gene flow can be localized to small genomic regions at the later stages of speciation with gene flow.

Transcutaneous vagus nerve stimulation (tVNS) enhances divergent thinking.

PubMed

Colzato, Lorenza S; Ritter, Simone M; Steenbergen, Laura

2018-03-01

Creativity is one of the most important cognitive skills in our complex and fast-changing world. Previous correlative evidence showed that gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) is involved in divergent but not convergent thinking. In the current study, a placebo/sham-controlled, randomized between-group design was used to test a causal relation between vagus nerve and creativity. We employed transcutaneous vagus nerve stimulation (tVNS), a novel non-invasive brain stimulation technique to stimulate afferent fibers of the vagus nerve and speculated to increase GABA levels, in 80 healthy young volunteers. Creative performance was assessed in terms of divergent thinking (Alternate Uses Task) and convergent thinking tasks (Remote Associates Test, Creative Problem Solving Task, Idea Selection Task). Results demonstrate active tVNS, compared to sham stimulation, enhanced divergent thinking. Bayesian analysis reported the data to be inconclusive regarding a possible effect of tVNS on convergent thinking. Therefore, our findings corroborate the idea that the vagus nerve is causally involved in creative performance. Even thought we did not directly measure GABA levels, our results suggest that GABA (likely to be increased in active tVNS condition) supports the ability to select among competing options in high selection demand (divergent thinking) but not in low selection demand (convergent thinking). Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Model-based analyses reveal insular population diversification and cryptic frog species in the Ischnocnema parva complex in the Atlantic forest of Brazil.

PubMed

Gehara, Marcelo; Barth, Adriane; Oliveira, Eliana Faria de; Costa, Marco Antonio; Haddad, Célio Fernando Baptista; Vences, Miguel

2017-07-01

The Atlantic Forest (AF) of Brazil has long been recognized as a biodiversity conservation hotspot. Despite decades of studies the species inventory of this biome continues to increase with the discovery of cryptic diversity and the description of new species. Different diversification mechanisms have been proposed to explain the diversity in the region, including models of forest dynamics, barriers to gene flow and dispersal. Also, sea level change is thought to have influenced coastal diversification and isolated populations on continental islands. However, the timing and mode of diversification of insular populations in the AF region were rarely investigated. Here, we analyze the phylogeography and species diversity of the small-sized direct-developing frog Ischnocnema parva. These frogs are independent from water bodies but dependent on forest cover and high humidity, and provide good models to understand forest dynamics and insular diversification. Our analysis was based on DNA sequences for one mitochondrial and four nuclear genes of 71 samples from 18 localities including two islands, São Sebastião, municipality of Ilhabela, and Mar Virado, municipality of Ubatuba, both in the state of São Paulo. We use molecular taxonomic methods to show that I. parva is composed of six independently evolving lineages, with the nominal I. parva likely endemic to the type locality. The time-calibrated species tree shows that these lineages have diverged in the Pliocene and Pleistocene, suggesting the persistence of micro-refuges of forest in the AF. For the two insular populations we used approximate Bayesian computation to test different diversification hypotheses. Our findings support isolation with migration for São Sebastião population, with ∼1Mya divergence time, and isolation without migration for Mar Virado population, with ∼13Kya divergence time, suggesting a combination of different processes for diversification on AF islands. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Divergent trophic levels in two cryptic sibling bat species.

PubMed

Siemers, Björn M; Greif, Stefan; Borissov, Ivailo; Voigt-Heucke, Silke L; Voigt, Christian C

2011-05-01

Changes in dietary preferences in animal species play a pivotal role in niche specialization. Here, we investigate how divergence of foraging behaviour affects the trophic position of animals and thereby their role for ecosystem processes. As a model, we used two closely related bat species, Myotis myotis and M. blythii oxygnathus, that are morphologically very similar and share the same roosts, but show clear behavioural divergence in habitat selection and foraging. Based on previous dietary studies on synanthropic populations in Central Europe, we hypothesised that M. myotis would mainly prey on predatory arthropods (i.e., secondary consumers) while M. blythii oxygnathus would eat herbivorous insects (i.e., primary consumers). We thus expected that the sibling bats would be at different trophic levels. We first conducted a validation experiment with captive bats in the laboratory and measured isotopic discrimination, i.e., the stepwise enrichment of heavy in relation to light isotopes between consumer and diet, in insectivorous bats for the first time. We then tested our trophic level hypothesis in the field at an ancient site of natural coexistence for the two species (Bulgaria, south-eastern Europe) using stable isotope analyses. As predicted, secondary consumer arthropods (carabid beetles; Coleoptera) were more enriched in (15)N than primary consumer arthropods (tettigoniids; Orthoptera), and accordingly wing tissue of M. myotis was more enriched in (15)N than tissue of M. blythii oxygnathus. According to a Bayesian mixing model, M. blythii oxygnathus indeed fed almost exclusively on primary consumers (98%), while M. myotis ate a mix of secondary (50%), but also, and to a considerable extent, primary consumers (50%). Our study highlights that morphologically almost identical, sympatric sibling species may forage at divergent trophic levels, and, thus may have different effects on ecosystem processes.

Reconstructing the colonisation and diversification history of the endemic freshwater crab (Seychellum alluaudi) in the granitic and volcanic Seychelles Archipelago.

PubMed

Daniels, Savel R

2011-11-01

The endemic, monotypic freshwater crab species Seychellum alluaudi was used as a template to examine the initial colonisation and evolutionary history among the major islands in the Seychelles Archipelago. Five of the "inner" islands in the Seychelles Archipelago including Mahé, Praslin, Silhouette, La Digue and Frégate were sampled. Two partial mtDNA fragments, 16S rRNA and cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) was sequenced for 83 specimens of S. alluaudi. Evolutionary relationships between populations were inferred from the combined mtDNA dataset using maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian inferences. Analyses of molecular variance (AMOVA) were used to examine genetic variation among and within clades. A haplotype network was constructed using TCS while BEAST was employed to date the colonisation and divergence of lineages on the islands. Phylogenetic analyses of the combined mtDNA data set of 1103 base pairs retrieved a monophyletic S. alluaudi group comprised three statistically well-supported monophyletic clades. Clade one was exclusive to Silhouette; clade two included samples from Praslin sister to La Digue, while clade three comprised samples from Mahé sister to Frégate. The haplotype network corresponded to the three clades. Within Mahé, substantial phylogeographic substructure was evident. AMOVA results revealed limited genetic variation within localities with most variation occurring among localities. Divergence time estimations predated the Holocene sea level regressions and indicated a Pliocene/Pleistocene divergence between the three clades evident within S. alluaudi. The monophyly of each clade suggests that transoceanic dispersal is rare. The absence of shared haplotypes between the three clades, coupled with marked sequence divergence values suggests the presence of three allospecies within S. alluaudi. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian hierarchical approach to comparative audit for carotid surgery.

PubMed

Kuhan, G; Marshall, E C; Abidia, A F; Chetter, I C; McCollum, P T

2002-12-01

the aim of this study was to illustrate how a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach can aid the reliable comparison of outcome rates between surgeons. retrospective analysis of prospective and retrospective data. binary outcome data (death/stroke within 30 days), together with information on 15 possible risk factors specific for CEA were available on 836 CEAs performed by four vascular surgeons from 1992-99. The median patient age was 68 (range 38-86) years and 60% were men. the model was developed using the WinBUGS software. After adjusting for patient-level risk factors, a cross-validatory approach was adopted to identify "divergent" performance. A ranking exercise was also carried out. the overall observed 30-day stroke/death rate was 3.9% (33/836). The model found diabetes, stroke and heart disease to be significant risk factors. There was no significant difference between the predicted and observed outcome rates for any surgeon (Bayesian p -value>0.05). Each surgeon had a median rank of 3 with associated 95% CI 1.0-5.0, despite the variability of observed stroke/death rate from 2.9-4.4%. After risk adjustment, there was very little residual between-surgeon variability in outcome rate. Bayesian hierarchical models can help to accurately quantify the uncertainty associated with surgeons' performance and rank.

The phylogeny of brown lacewings (Neuroptera: Hemerobiidae) reveals multiple reductions in wing venation.

PubMed

Garzón-Orduña, Ivonne J; Menchaca-Armenta, Imelda; Contreras-Ramos, Atilano; Liu, Xingyue; Winterton, Shaun L

2016-09-20

The last time the phylogenetic relationships among members of the family Hemerobiidae were studied quantitatively was over 12 years ago and based exclusively on morphology. Our study builds upon this morphological evidence by adding sequence data from three gene loci to provide a total evidence phylogeny of brown lacewings (Neuroptera: Hemerobiidae). Thirty-seven species representing nineteen Hemerobiidae genera were compared with outgroups from the families Ithonidae, Psychopsidae and Chrysopidae in Bayesian and parsimony analyses using a single nuclear gene (CAD) and two mitochondrial (16S rDNA and Cytochrome Oxidase I) genes. We compare divergence time estimates of Hemerobiidae cladogenesis under the two most commonly used relaxed clock models and discuss the evolution of wing venation in the family. We recovered a phylogeny largely incongruent with previously published morphological studies, although all but two subfamilies (i.e., Notiobiellinae and Drepanacrinae) were recovered as monophyletic. We found the subfamily Drepanacrinae paraphyletic with respect to Psychobiellinae, and Notiobiellinae to be polyphyletic. We thus offer a revised concept of Notiobiellinae, comprising only Notiobiella Banks, and erect a new subfamily Zachobiellinae including the remaining genera previously placed in Notiobiellinae. Psychobiellinae is synonymized with Drepanacrinae. Unlike the previous hypothesis that proposed a remarkably laddered topology, our tree suggests that hemerobiids diverged as three main clades. Moreover, in contrast to the vein proliferation hypothesis, we found that hemerobiids have instead undergone multiple reductions in the number of radial veins, this scenario questions the relevance of this character as diagnostic of various subfamilies Our phylogenetic hypothesis and divergence times analysis suggest that extant hemerobiids originated around the end of the Triassic and evolved as three distinct clades that diverged from one another during the Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous. Contrary to earlier phylogenetic hypotheses, Carobius Banks (Carobiinae) is sister to the previously unplaced genus Notherobius New in a clade more closely related to Sympherobiinae, Megalominae and Zachobiellinae subfam. nov. The addition of taxa which are not available for DNA sequencing should be the focus of future studies, especially Adelphohemerobius Oswald, which is particularly important to test our inferences regarding the evolution of wing venation in Hemerobiidae.

Geographic isolation drives divergence of uncorrelated genetic and song variation in the Ruddy-capped Nightingale-Thrush (Catharus frantzii; Aves: Turdidae).

PubMed

Ortiz-Ramírez, Marco F; Andersen, Michael J; Zaldívar-Riverón, Alejandro; Ornelas, Juan Francisco; Navarro-Sigüenza, Adolfo G

2016-01-01

Montane barriers influence the evolutionary history of lineages by promoting isolation of populations. The effects of these historical processes are evident in patterns of differentiation among extant populations, which are often expressed as genetic and behavioral variation between populations. We investigated the effects of geographic barriers on the evolutionary history of a Mesoamerican bird by studying patterns of genetic and vocal variation in the Ruddy-capped Nightingale-Thrush (Turdidae: Catharus frantzii), a non-migratory oscine bird that inhabits montane forests from central Mexico to Panama. We reconstructed the phylogeographic history and estimated divergence times between populations using Bayesian and maximum likelihood methods. We found strong support for the existence of four mitochondrial lineages of C. frantzii corresponding to isolated mountain ranges: Sierra Madre Oriental; Sierra Madre del Sur; the highlands of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador; and the Talamanca Cordillera. Vocal features in C. frantzii were highly variable among the four observed clades, but vocal variation and genetic variation were uncorrelated. Song variation in C. frantzii suggests that sexual selection and cultural drift could be important factors driving song differentiation in C. frantzii. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of cryptic species in morphologically uniform taxa - fast speciation and evolutionary radiation in Asian toads.

PubMed

Liu, Zuyao; Chen, Guoling; Zhu, Tianqi; Zeng, Zhaochi; Lyu, Zhitong; Wang, Jian; Messenger, Kevin; Greenberg, Anthony J; Guo, Zixiao; Yang, Ziheng; Shi, Suhua; Wang, Yingyong

2018-06-16

Diversity and distributions of cryptic species have long been a vexing issue. Identification of species boundaries is made difficult by the lack of obvious morphological differences. Here, we investigate the cryptic diversity and evolutionary history of an underappreciated group of Asian frog species (Megophrys) to explore the pattern and dynamic of amphibian cryptic species. We sequenced four mitochondrial genes and five nuclear genes and delineated species using multiple approaches, combining DNA and mating-call data. A Bayesian species tree was generated to estimate divergence times and to reconstruct ancestral ranges. Macroevolutionary analyses and hybridization tests were conducted to explore the evolutionary dynamics of this cryptic group. Our phylogenies support the current subgenera. We revealed 43 cryptic species, 158% higher than previously thought. The species-delimitation results were further confirmed by mating-call data and morphological divergence. We found that these Asian frogss entered China from the Sunda Shelf 48 Mya, followed by an ancient radiation event during middle Miocene. We confirmed the efficiency of the multispecies coalescent model for delimitation of species with low morphological diversity. Species diversity of Megophrys is severely underappreciated, and species distributions have been misestimated as a result. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Fossil record of stem groups employed in evaluating the chronogram of insects (Arthropoda: Hexapoda)

PubMed Central

Wang, Yan-hui; Engel, Michael S.; Rafael, José A.; Wu, Hao-yang; Rédei, Dávid; Xie, Qiang; Wang, Gang; Liu, Xiao-guang; Bu, Wen-jun

2016-01-01

Insecta s. str. (=Ectognatha), comprise the largest and most diversified group of living organisms, accounting for roughly half of the biodiversity on Earth. Understanding insect relationships and the specific time intervals for their episodes of radiation and extinction are critical to any comprehensive perspective on evolutionary events. Although some deeper nodes have been resolved congruently, the complete evolution of insects has remained obscure due to the lack of direct fossil evidence. Besides, various evolutionary phases of insects and the corresponding driving forces of diversification remain to be recognized. In this study, a comprehensive sample of all insect orders was used to reconstruct their phylogenetic relationships and estimate deep divergences. The phylogenetic relationships of insect orders were congruently recovered by Bayesian inference and maximum likelihood analyses. A complete timescale of divergences based on an uncorrelated log-normal relaxed clock model was established among all lineages of winged insects. The inferred timescale for various nodes are congruent with major historical events including the increase of atmospheric oxygen in the Late Silurian and earliest Devonian, the radiation of vascular plants in the Devonian, and with the available fossil record of the stem groups to various insect lineages in the Devonian and Carboniferous. PMID:27958352

Cretaceous origin and repeated tertiary diversification of the redefined butterflies

PubMed Central

Heikkilä, Maria; Kaila, Lauri; Mutanen, Marko; Peña, Carlos; Wahlberg, Niklas

2012-01-01

Although the taxonomy of the ca 18 000 species of butterflies and skippers is well known, the family-level relationships are still debated. Here, we present, to our knowledge, the most comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of the superfamilies Papilionoidea, Hesperioidea and Hedyloidea to date based on morphological and molecular data. We reconstructed their phylogenetic relationships using parsimony and Bayesian approaches. We estimated times and rates of diversification along lineages in order to reconstruct their evolutionary history. Our results suggest that the butterflies, as traditionally understood, are paraphyletic, with Papilionidae being the sister-group to Hesperioidea, Hedyloidea and all other butterflies. Hence, the families in the current three superfamilies should be placed in a single superfamily Papilionoidea. In addition, we find that Hedylidae is sister to Hesperiidae, and this novel relationship is supported by two morphological characters. The families diverged in the Early Cretaceous but diversified after the Cretaceous–Palaeogene event. The diversification of butterflies is characterized by a slow speciation rate in the lineage leading to Baronia brevicornis, a period of stasis by the skippers after divergence and a burst of diversification in the lineages leading to Nymphalidae, Riodinidae and Lycaenidae. PMID:21920981

Cretaceous origin and repeated tertiary diversification of the redefined butterflies.

PubMed

Heikkilä, Maria; Kaila, Lauri; Mutanen, Marko; Peña, Carlos; Wahlberg, Niklas

2012-03-22

Although the taxonomy of the ca 18 000 species of butterflies and skippers is well known, the family-level relationships are still debated. Here, we present, to our knowledge, the most comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of the superfamilies Papilionoidea, Hesperioidea and Hedyloidea to date based on morphological and molecular data. We reconstructed their phylogenetic relationships using parsimony and Bayesian approaches. We estimated times and rates of diversification along lineages in order to reconstruct their evolutionary history. Our results suggest that the butterflies, as traditionally understood, are paraphyletic, with Papilionidae being the sister-group to Hesperioidea, Hedyloidea and all other butterflies. Hence, the families in the current three superfamilies should be placed in a single superfamily Papilionoidea. In addition, we find that Hedylidae is sister to Hesperiidae, and this novel relationship is supported by two morphological characters. The families diverged in the Early Cretaceous but diversified after the Cretaceous-Palaeogene event. The diversification of butterflies is characterized by a slow speciation rate in the lineage leading to Baronia brevicornis, a period of stasis by the skippers after divergence and a burst of diversification in the lineages leading to Nymphalidae, Riodinidae and Lycaenidae.

Nuclear genomic sequences reveal that polar bears are an old and distinct bear lineage.

PubMed

Hailer, Frank; Kutschera, Verena E; Hallström, Björn M; Klassert, Denise; Fain, Steven R; Leonard, Jennifer A; Arnason, Ulfur; Janke, Axel

2012-04-20

Recent studies have shown that the polar bear matriline (mitochondrial DNA) evolved from a brown bear lineage since the late Pleistocene, potentially indicating rapid speciation and adaption to arctic conditions. Here, we present a high-resolution data set from multiple independent loci across the nuclear genomes of a broad sample of polar, brown, and black bears. Bayesian coalescent analyses place polar bears outside the brown bear clade and date the divergence much earlier, in the middle Pleistocene, about 600 (338 to 934) thousand years ago. This provides more time for polar bear evolution and confirms previous suggestions that polar bears carry introgressed brown bear mitochondrial DNA due to past hybridization. Our results highlight that multilocus genomic analyses are crucial for an accurate understanding of evolutionary history.

Implications of High Molecular Divergence of Nuclear rRNA and Phylogenetic Structure for the Dinoflagellate Prorocentrum (Dinophyceae, Prorocentrales).

PubMed

Boopathi, Thangavelu; Faria, Daphne Georgina; Cheon, Ju-Yong; Youn, Seok Hyun; Ki, Jang-Seu

2015-01-01

The small and large nuclear subunit molecular phylogeny of the genus Prorocentrum demonstrated that the species are dichotomized into two clades. These two clades were significantly different (one-factor ANOVA, p < 0.01) with patterns compatible for both small and large subunit Bayesian phylogenetic trees, and for a larger taxon sampled dinoflagellate phylogeny. Evaluation of the molecular divergence levels showed that intraspecies genetic variations were significantly low (t-test, p < 0.05), than those for interspecies variations (> 2.9% and > 26.8% dissimilarity in the small and large subunit [D1/D2], respectively). Based on the calculated molecular divergence, the genus comprises two genetically distinct groups that should be considered as two separate genera, thereby setting the pace for major systematic changes for the genus Prorocentrum sensu Dodge. Moreover, the information presented in this study would be useful for improving species identification, detection of novel clades from environmental samples. © 2015 The Author(s) Journal of Eukaryotic Microbiology © 2015 International Society of Protistologists.

Molecular systematics and biogeography of the circumglobally distributed genus Seriola (Pisces: Carangidae).

PubMed

Swart, Belinda L; von der Heyden, Sophie; Bester-van der Merwe, Aletta; Roodt-Wilding, Rouvay

2015-12-01

The genus Seriola includes several important commercially exploited species and has a disjunct distribution globally; yet phylogenetic relationships within this genus have not been thoroughly investigated. This study reports the first comprehensive molecular phylogeny for this genus based on mitochondrial (Cytb) and nuclear gene (RAG1 and Rhod) DNA sequence data for all extant Seriola species (nine species, n=27). All species were found to be monophyletic based on Maximum parsimony, Maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. The closure of the Tethys Sea (12-20 MYA) coincides with the divergence of a clade containing ((S. fasciata and S. peruana), S. carpenteri) from the rest of the Seriola species, while the formation of the Isthmus of Panama (±3 MYA) played an important role in the divergence of S. fasciata and S. peruana. Furthermore, factors such as climate and water temperature fluctuations during the Pliocene played important roles during the divergence of the remaining Seriola species. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ancient papillomavirus-host co-speciation in Felidae

PubMed Central

Rector, Annabel; Lemey, Philippe; Tachezy, Ruth; Mostmans, Sara; Ghim, Shin-Je; Van Doorslaer, Koenraad; Roelke, Melody; Bush, Mitchell; Montali, Richard J; Joslin, Janis; Burk, Robert D; Jenson, Alfred B; Sundberg, John P; Shapiro, Beth; Van Ranst, Marc

2007-01-01

Background Estimating evolutionary rates for slowly evolving viruses such as papillomaviruses (PVs) is not possible using fossil calibrations directly or sequences sampled over a time-scale of decades. An ability to correlate their divergence with a host species, however, can provide a means to estimate evolutionary rates for these viruses accurately. To determine whether such an approach is feasible, we sequenced complete feline PV genomes, previously available only for the domestic cat (Felis domesticus, FdPV1), from four additional, globally distributed feline species: Lynx rufus PV type 1, Puma concolor PV type 1, Panthera leo persica PV type 1, and Uncia uncia PV type 1. Results The feline PVs all belong to the Lambdapapillomavirus genus, and contain an unusual second noncoding region between the early and late protein region, which is only present in members of this genus. Our maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses demonstrate that the evolutionary relationships between feline PVs perfectly mirror those of their feline hosts, despite a complex and dynamic phylogeographic history. By applying host species divergence times, we provide the first precise estimates for the rate of evolution for each PV gene, with an overall evolutionary rate of 1.95 × 10-8 (95% confidence interval 1.32 × 10-8 to 2.47 × 10-8) nucleotide substitutions per site per year for the viral coding genome. Conclusion Our work provides evidence for long-term virus-host co-speciation of feline PVs, indicating that viral diversity in slowly evolving viruses can be used to investigate host species evolution. These findings, however, should not be extrapolated to other viral lineages without prior confirmation of virus-host co-divergence. PMID:17430578

Bayesian reconstruction of the evolutionary history and cross-species transition of variola virus and orthopoxviruses.

PubMed

Zehender, Gianguglielmo; Lai, Alessia; Veo, Carla; Bergna, Annalisa; Ciccozzi, Massimo; Galli, Massimo

2018-06-01

Variola virus (VARV), the causative agent of smallpox, is an exclusively human virus belonging to the genus Orthopoxvirus, which includes many other viral species covering a wide range of mammal hosts, such as vaccinia, cowpox, camelpox, taterapox, ectromelia, and monkeypox virus. The tempo and mode of evolution of Orthopoxviruses were reconstructed using a Bayesian phylodynamic framework by analysing 80 hemagglutinin sequences retrieved from public databases. Bayesian phylogeography was used to estimate their putative ancestral hosts. In order to estimate the substitution rate, the tree including all of the available Orthopoxviruses was calibrated using historical references dating the South American variola minor clade (alastrim) to between the XVI and XIX century. The mean substitution rate determined by the analysis was 6.5 × 10 -6 substitutions/site/year. Based on this evolutionary estimate, the time of the most recent common ancestor of the genus Orthopoxvirus was placed at about 10 000 years before the present. Cowpox virus was the species closest to the root of the phylogenetic tree. The root of VARV circulating in the XX century was estimated to be about 700 years ago, corresponding to about 1300 AD. The divergence between West African and South American VARV went back about 500 years ago (falling approximately in the XVI century). A rodent species is the most probable ancestral host from which the ancestors of all the known Orthopoxviruses were transmitted to the other mammal host species, and each of these species represented a dead-end for each new poxvirus species, without any further inter-specific spread. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Diversification in Hawaiian long-legged flies (Diptera: Dolichopodidae: Campsicnemus): biogeographic isolation and ecological adaptation.

PubMed

Goodman, Kari Roesch; Evenhuis, Neal L; Bartošová-Sojková, Pavla; O'Grady, Patrick M

2014-12-01

Flies in the genus Campsicnemus have diversified into the second-largest adaptive radiation of Diptera in the Hawaiian Islands, with 179 Hawaiian endemic species currently described. Here we present the first phylogenetic analysis of Campsicnemus, with a focus on the Hawaiian fauna. We analyzed a combination of two nuclear (CAD, EF1α) and five mitochondrial (COI, COII, 12S, 16S, ND2) loci using Bayesian and maximum likelihood approaches to generate a phylogenetic hypothesis for the genus Campsicnemus. Our sampling included a total of 84 species (6 species from Europe, 1 from North America, 7 species from French Polynesia and 70 species from the Hawaiian Islands). The phylogenies were used to estimate divergence times, reconstruct biogeographic history, and infer ancestral ecological associations within this large genus. We found strong support for a South Pacific+Hawaiian clade, as well as for a monophyletic Hawaiian lineage. Divergence time estimates suggest that Hawaiian Islands were colonized approximately 4.6 million years ago, suggesting that most of the diversity within Campsicnemus evolved since the current high islands began forming ∼5 million years ago. We also observe a novel ecotype within the Pacific Campsicnemus; a widespread obligate water-skating form that has arisen multiple times across the Pacific Islands. Together, these analyses suggest that a combination of ecological, biogeographic and temporal factors have led to the impressive diversity of long-legged flies in Hawaii and elsewhere in the Pacific. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Efficacy of Consensus Tree Methods for Summarizing Phylogenetic Relationships from a Posterior Sample of Trees Estimated from Morphological Data.

PubMed

O'Reilly, Joseph E; Donoghue, Philip C J

2018-03-01

Consensus trees are required to summarize trees obtained through MCMC sampling of a posterior distribution, providing an overview of the distribution of estimated parameters such as topology, branch lengths, and divergence times. Numerous consensus tree construction methods are available, each presenting a different interpretation of the tree sample. The rise of morphological clock and sampled-ancestor methods of divergence time estimation, in which times and topology are coestimated, has increased the popularity of the maximum clade credibility (MCC) consensus tree method. The MCC method assumes that the sampled, fully resolved topology with the highest clade credibility is an adequate summary of the most probable clades, with parameter estimates from compatible sampled trees used to obtain the marginal distributions of parameters such as clade ages and branch lengths. Using both simulated and empirical data, we demonstrate that MCC trees, and trees constructed using the similar maximum a posteriori (MAP) method, often include poorly supported and incorrect clades when summarizing diffuse posterior samples of trees. We demonstrate that the paucity of information in morphological data sets contributes to the inability of MCC and MAP trees to accurately summarise of the posterior distribution. Conversely, majority-rule consensus (MRC) trees represent a lower proportion of incorrect nodes when summarizing the same posterior samples of trees. Thus, we advocate the use of MRC trees, in place of MCC or MAP trees, in attempts to summarize the results of Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of morphological data.

The Efficacy of Consensus Tree Methods for Summarizing Phylogenetic Relationships from a Posterior Sample of Trees Estimated from Morphological Data

PubMed Central

O’Reilly, Joseph E; Donoghue, Philip C J

2018-01-01

Abstract Consensus trees are required to summarize trees obtained through MCMC sampling of a posterior distribution, providing an overview of the distribution of estimated parameters such as topology, branch lengths, and divergence times. Numerous consensus tree construction methods are available, each presenting a different interpretation of the tree sample. The rise of morphological clock and sampled-ancestor methods of divergence time estimation, in which times and topology are coestimated, has increased the popularity of the maximum clade credibility (MCC) consensus tree method. The MCC method assumes that the sampled, fully resolved topology with the highest clade credibility is an adequate summary of the most probable clades, with parameter estimates from compatible sampled trees used to obtain the marginal distributions of parameters such as clade ages and branch lengths. Using both simulated and empirical data, we demonstrate that MCC trees, and trees constructed using the similar maximum a posteriori (MAP) method, often include poorly supported and incorrect clades when summarizing diffuse posterior samples of trees. We demonstrate that the paucity of information in morphological data sets contributes to the inability of MCC and MAP trees to accurately summarise of the posterior distribution. Conversely, majority-rule consensus (MRC) trees represent a lower proportion of incorrect nodes when summarizing the same posterior samples of trees. Thus, we advocate the use of MRC trees, in place of MCC or MAP trees, in attempts to summarize the results of Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of morphological data. PMID:29106675

Ecological and Genetic Divergences with Gene Flow of Two Sister Species (Leucomeris decora and Nouelia insignis) Driving by Climatic Transition in Southwest China.

PubMed

Zhao, Yujuan; Yin, Genshen; Pan, Yuezhi; Gong, Xun

2018-01-01

Understanding of the processes of divergence and speciation is a major task for biodiversity researches and may offer clearer insight into mechanisms generating biological diversity. Here, we employ an integrative approach to explore genetic and ecological differentiation of Leucomeris decora and Nouelia insignis distributed allopatrically along the two sides of the biogeographic boundary 'Tanaka Line' in Southwest China. We addressed these questions using ten low-copy nuclear genes and nine plastid DNA regions sequenced among individuals sampled from 28 populations across their geographic ranges in China. Phylogenetic, coalescent-based population genetic analyses, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework and ecological niche models (ENMs) were conducted. We identified a closer phylogenetic relationship in maternal lineage of L. decora with N. insignis than that between L . decora and congeneric Leucomeris spectabilis . A deep divergence between the two species was observed and occurred at the boundary between later Pliocene and early Pleistocene. However, the evidence of significant chloroplast DNA gene flow was also detected between the marginal populations of L. decora and N. insignis . Niche models and statistical analyses showed significant ecological differentiation, and two nuclear loci among the ten nuclear genes may be under divergent selection. These integrative results imply that the role of climatic shift from Pliocene to Pleistocene may be the prominent factor for the divergence of L . decora and N . insignis , and population expansion after divergence may have given rise to chloroplast DNA introgression. The divergence was maintained by differential selection despite in the face of gene flow.

Testing founder effect speciation: Divergence population genetics of the Spoonbills Platalea regia and Pl. minor (Threskiornithidae, Aves)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yeung, Carol K.L.; Tsai, Pi-Wen; Chesser, R. Terry; Lin, Rong-Chien; Yao, Cheng-Te; Tian, Xiu-Hua; Li, Shou-Hsien

2011-01-01

Although founder effect speciation has been a popular theoretical model for the speciation of geographically isolated taxa, its empirical importance has remained difficult to evaluate due to the intractability of past demography, which in a founder effect speciation scenario would involve a speciational bottleneck in the emergent species and the complete cessation of gene flow following divergence. Using regression-weighted approximate Bayesian computation, we tested the validity of these two fundamental conditions of founder effect speciation in a pair of sister species with disjunct distributions: the royal spoonbill Platalea regia in Australasia and the black-faced spoonbill Pl. minor in eastern Asia. When compared with genetic polymorphism observed at 20 nuclear loci in the two species, simulations showed that the founder effect speciation model had an extremely low posterior probability (1.55 × 10-8) of producing the extant genetic pattern. In contrast, speciation models that allowed for postdivergence gene flow were much more probable (posterior probabilities were 0.37 and 0.50 for the bottleneck with gene flow and the gene flow models, respectively) and postdivergence gene flow persisted for a considerable period of time (more than 80% of the divergence history in both models) following initial divergence (median = 197,000 generations, 95% credible interval [CI]: 50,000-478,000, for the bottleneck with gene flow model; and 186,000 generations, 95% CI: 45,000-477,000, for the gene flow model). Furthermore, the estimated population size reduction in Pl. regia to 7,000 individuals (median, 95% CI: 487-12,000, according to the bottleneck with gene flow model) was unlikely to have been severe enough to be considered a bottleneck. Therefore, these results do not support founder effect speciation in Pl. regia but indicate instead that the divergence between Pl. regia and Pl. minor was probably driven by selection despite continuous gene flow. In this light, we discuss the potential importance of evolutionarily labile traits with significant fitness consequences, such as migratory behavior and habitat preference, in facilitating divergence of the spoonbills.

Genetic Population Structure Analysis in New Hampshire Reveals Eastern European Ancestry

PubMed Central

Sloan, Chantel D.; Andrew, Angeline D.; Duell, Eric J.; Williams, Scott M.; Karagas, Margaret R.; Moore, Jason H.

2009-01-01

Genetic structure due to ancestry has been well documented among many divergent human populations. However, the ability to associate ancestry with genetic substructure without using supervised clustering has not been explored in more presumably homogeneous and admixed US populations. The goal of this study was to determine if genetic structure could be detected in a United States population from a single state where the individuals have mixed European ancestry. Using Bayesian clustering with a set of 960 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) we found evidence of population stratification in 864 individuals from New Hampshire that can be used to differentiate the population into six distinct genetic subgroups. We then correlated self-reported ancestry of the individuals with the Bayesian clustering results. Finnish and Russian/Polish/Lithuanian ancestries were most notably found to be associated with genetic substructure. The ancestral results were further explained and substantiated using New Hampshire census data from 1870 to 1930 when the largest waves of European immigrants came to the area. We also discerned distinct patterns of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between the genetic groups in the growth hormone receptor gene (GHR). To our knowledge, this is the first time such an investigation has uncovered a strong link between genetic structure and ancestry in what would otherwise be considered a homogenous US population. PMID:19738909

A Bayesian phylogenetic study of the Dravidian language family

PubMed Central

Kolipakam, Vishnupriya

2018-01-01

The Dravidian language family consists of about 80 varieties (Hammarström H. 2016 Glottolog 2.7) spoken by 220 million people across southern and central India and surrounding countries (Steever SB. 1998 In The Dravidian languages (ed. SB Steever), pp. 1–39: 1). Neither the geographical origin of the Dravidian language homeland nor its exact dispersal through time are known. The history of these languages is crucial for understanding prehistory in Eurasia, because despite their current restricted range, these languages played a significant role in influencing other language groups including Indo-Aryan (Indo-European) and Munda (Austroasiatic) speakers. Here, we report the results of a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of cognate-coded lexical data, elicited first hand from native speakers, to investigate the subgrouping of the Dravidian language family, and provide dates for the major points of diversification. Our results indicate that the Dravidian language family is approximately 4500 years old, a finding that corresponds well with earlier linguistic and archaeological studies. The main branches of the Dravidian language family (North, Central, South I, South II) are recovered, although the placement of languages within these main branches diverges from previous classifications. We find considerable uncertainty with regard to the relationships between the main branches. PMID:29657761

The role of peripheral endemism in species diversification: evidence from the coral reef fish genus Anampses (Family: Labridae).

PubMed

Hodge, Jennifer R; Read, Charmaine I; van Herwerden, Lynne; Bellwood, David R

2012-02-01

We examined how peripherally isolated endemic species may have contributed to the biodiversity of the Indo-Australian Archipelago biodiversity hotspot by reconstructing the evolutionary history of the wrasse genus Anampses. We identified three alternate models of diversification: the vicariance-based 'successive division' model, and the dispersal-based 'successive colonisation' and 'peripheral budding' models. The genus was well suited for this study given its relatively high proportion (42%) of endemic species, its reasonably low diversity (12 species), which permitted complete taxon sampling, and its widespread tropical Indo-Pacific distribution. Monophyly of the genus was strongly supported by three phylogenetic analyses: maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference based on mitochondrial CO1 and 12S rRNA and nuclear S7 sequences. Estimates of species divergence times from fossil-calibrated Bayesian inference suggest that Anampses arose in the mid-Eocene and subsequently diversified throughout the Miocene. Evolutionary relationships within the genus, combined with limited spatial and temporal concordance among endemics, offer support for all three alternate models of diversification. Our findings emphasise the importance of peripherally isolated locations in creating and maintaining endemic species and their contribution to the biodiversity of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Genetic population structure analysis in New Hampshire reveals Eastern European ancestry.

PubMed

Sloan, Chantel D; Andrew, Angeline D; Duell, Eric J; Williams, Scott M; Karagas, Margaret R; Moore, Jason H

2009-09-07

Genetic structure due to ancestry has been well documented among many divergent human populations. However, the ability to associate ancestry with genetic substructure without using supervised clustering has not been explored in more presumably homogeneous and admixed US populations. The goal of this study was to determine if genetic structure could be detected in a United States population from a single state where the individuals have mixed European ancestry. Using Bayesian clustering with a set of 960 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) we found evidence of population stratification in 864 individuals from New Hampshire that can be used to differentiate the population into six distinct genetic subgroups. We then correlated self-reported ancestry of the individuals with the Bayesian clustering results. Finnish and Russian/Polish/Lithuanian ancestries were most notably found to be associated with genetic substructure. The ancestral results were further explained and substantiated using New Hampshire census data from 1870 to 1930 when the largest waves of European immigrants came to the area. We also discerned distinct patterns of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between the genetic groups in the growth hormone receptor gene (GHR). To our knowledge, this is the first time such an investigation has uncovered a strong link between genetic structure and ancestry in what would otherwise be considered a homogenous US population.

A comprehensive phylogeny of the genus Kurixalus (Rhacophoridae, Anura) sheds light on the geographical range evolution of frilled swamp treefrogs.

PubMed

Lv, Yun-Yun; He, Kai; Klaus, Sebastian; Brown, Rafe M; Li, Jia-Tang

2018-04-01

Currently, the genus Kurixalus comprises 14 species distributed in Southern, Southeast and East Asia. Because of their relatively low dispersal capability and intolerance of seawater, this group is ideal for the study of terrestrial range evolution, especially that portion of its range that extends into the island archipelagos of Southern Asia. We assembled a large dataset of mitochondrial and nuclear genes, and estimated phylogeny by maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, and we explored the history of each species via divergence-time estimation based on fossil-calibrations. A variety of ancestral-area reconstruction strategies were employed to estimate past changes of the species' geographical range, and to evaluate the impact of different abiotic barriers on range evolution. We found that frilled swamp treefrogs probably originated in Taiwan or South Vietnam in the Oligocene. Alternatively, the lineage leading to Kurixalus appendiculatus strongly supports a hypothesis of terrestrial connection between the Indian and Asian continents in the Oligocene. The outcome of both our divergence-time estimates and ancestral-area reconstruction suggests that the divergence between species from Indochina and Taiwan can probably be attributed to the opening of the South China Sea, approximately 33 million years ago. We could not find evidence for dispersal between mainland China and Taiwan Island. Formation of both Mekong and Red River valleys did not have any impact on Kurixalus species diversification. However, coincidence in timing of climate change and availability of plausible dispersal routes from the Oligocene to the middle Miocene, plausibly implied that Kurixalus diversification in Asia resulted from contemporaneous, climate-induced environmental upheaval (Late Oligocene Warming at 29 Ma; Mi-1 glaciation since 24.4-21.5 Ma; Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum at 14 Ma), which alternatively opened and closed dispersal routes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Origin and Diversification of Major Clades in Parmelioid Lichens (Parmeliaceae, Ascomycota) during the Paleogene Inferred by Bayesian Analysis

PubMed Central

Amo de Paz, Guillermo; Cubas, Paloma; Divakar, Pradeep K.; Lumbsch, H. Thorsten; Crespo, Ana

2011-01-01

There is a long-standing debate on the extent of vicariance and long-distance dispersal events to explain the current distribution of organisms, especially in those with small diaspores potentially prone to long-distance dispersal. Age estimates of clades play a crucial role in evaluating the impact of these processes. The aim of this study is to understand the evolutionary history of the largest clade of macrolichens, the parmelioid lichens (Parmeliaceae, Lecanoromycetes, Ascomycota) by dating the origin of the group and its major lineages. They have a worldwide distribution with centers of distribution in the Neo- and Paleotropics, and semi-arid subtropical regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Phylogenetic analyses were performed using DNA sequences of nuLSU and mtSSU rDNA, and the protein-coding RPB1 gene. The three DNA regions had different evolutionary rates: RPB1 gave a rate two to four times higher than nuLSU and mtSSU. Divergence times of the major clades were estimated with partitioned BEAST analyses allowing different rates for each DNA region and using a relaxed clock model. Three calibrations points were used to date the tree: an inferred age at the stem of Lecanoromycetes, and two dated fossils: Parmelia in the parmelioid group, and Alectoria. Palaeoclimatic conditions and the palaeogeological area cladogram were compared to the dated phylogeny of parmelioid. The parmelioid group diversified around the K/T boundary, and the major clades diverged during the Eocene and Oligocene. The radiation of the genera occurred through globally changing climatic condition of the early Oligocene, Miocene and early Pliocene. The estimated divergence times are consistent with long-distance dispersal events being the major factor to explain the biogeographical distribution patterns of Southern Hemisphere parmelioids, especially for Africa-Australia disjunctions, because the sequential break-up of Gondwana started much earlier than the origin of these clades. However, our data cannot reject vicariance to explain South America-Australia disjunctions. PMID:22174775

Evolutionary Roots and Diversification of the Genus Aeromonas.

PubMed

Sanglas, Ariadna; Albarral, Vicenta; Farfán, Maribel; Lorén, J G; Fusté, M C

2017-01-01

Despite the importance of diversification rates in the study of prokaryote evolution, they have not been quantitatively assessed for the majority of microorganism taxa. The investigation of evolutionary patterns in prokaryotes constitutes a challenge due to a very scarce fossil record, limited morphological differentiation and frequently complex taxonomic relationships, which make even species recognition difficult. Although the speciation models and speciation rates in eukaryotes have traditionally been established by analyzing the fossil record data, this is frequently incomplete, and not always available. More recently, several methods based on molecular sequence data have been developed to estimate speciation and extinction rates from phylogenies reconstructed from contemporary taxa. In this work, we determined the divergence time and temporal diversification of the genus Aeromonas by applying these methods widely used with eukaryotic taxa. Our analysis involved 150 Aeromonas strains using the concatenated sequences of two housekeeping genes (approximately 2,000 bp). Dating and diversification model analyses were performed using two different approaches: obtaining the consensus sequence from the concatenated sequences corresponding to all the strains belonging to the same species, or generating the species tree from multiple alignments of each gene. We used BEAST to perform a Bayesian analysis to estimate both the phylogeny and the divergence times. A global molecular clock cannot be assumed for any gene. From the chronograms obtained, we carried out a diversification analysis using several approaches. The results suggest that the genus Aeromonas began to diverge approximately 250 millions of years (Ma) ago. All methods used to determine Aeromonas diversification gave similar results, suggesting that the speciation process in this bacterial genus followed a rate-constant (Yule) diversification model, although there is a small probability that a slight deceleration occurred in recent times. We also determined the constant of diversification (λ) values, which in all cases were very similar, about 0.01 species/Ma, a value clearly lower than those described for different eukaryotes.

Evolutionary Roots and Diversification of the Genus Aeromonas

PubMed Central

Sanglas, Ariadna; Albarral, Vicenta; Farfán, Maribel; Lorén, J. G.; Fusté, M. C.

2017-01-01

Despite the importance of diversification rates in the study of prokaryote evolution, they have not been quantitatively assessed for the majority of microorganism taxa. The investigation of evolutionary patterns in prokaryotes constitutes a challenge due to a very scarce fossil record, limited morphological differentiation and frequently complex taxonomic relationships, which make even species recognition difficult. Although the speciation models and speciation rates in eukaryotes have traditionally been established by analyzing the fossil record data, this is frequently incomplete, and not always available. More recently, several methods based on molecular sequence data have been developed to estimate speciation and extinction rates from phylogenies reconstructed from contemporary taxa. In this work, we determined the divergence time and temporal diversification of the genus Aeromonas by applying these methods widely used with eukaryotic taxa. Our analysis involved 150 Aeromonas strains using the concatenated sequences of two housekeeping genes (approximately 2,000 bp). Dating and diversification model analyses were performed using two different approaches: obtaining the consensus sequence from the concatenated sequences corresponding to all the strains belonging to the same species, or generating the species tree from multiple alignments of each gene. We used BEAST to perform a Bayesian analysis to estimate both the phylogeny and the divergence times. A global molecular clock cannot be assumed for any gene. From the chronograms obtained, we carried out a diversification analysis using several approaches. The results suggest that the genus Aeromonas began to diverge approximately 250 millions of years (Ma) ago. All methods used to determine Aeromonas diversification gave similar results, suggesting that the speciation process in this bacterial genus followed a rate-constant (Yule) diversification model, although there is a small probability that a slight deceleration occurred in recent times. We also determined the constant of diversification (λ) values, which in all cases were very similar, about 0.01 species/Ma, a value clearly lower than those described for different eukaryotes. PMID:28228750

Phylogenetic Position and Subspecies Divergence of the Endangered New Zealand Dotterel (Charadrius obscurus)

PubMed Central

Barth, Julia M. I.; Matschiner, Michael; Robertson, Bruce C.

2013-01-01

The New Zealand Dotterel (Charadrius obscurus), an endangered shorebird of the family Charadriidae, is endemic to New Zealand where two subspecies are recognized. These subspecies are not only separated geographically, with C. o. aquilonius being distributed in the New Zealand North Island and C. o. obscurus mostly restricted to Stewart Island, but also differ substantially in morphology and behavior. Despite these divergent traits, previous work has failed to detect genetic differentiation between the subspecies, and the question of when and where the two populations separated is still open. Here, we use mitochondrial and nuclear markers to address molecular divergence between the subspecies, and apply maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods to place C. obscurus within the non-monophyletic genus Charadrius. Despite very little overall differentiation, distinct haplotypes for the subspecies were detected, thus supporting molecular separation of the northern and southern populations. Phylogenetic analysis recovers a monophyletic clade combining the New Zealand Dotterel with two other New Zealand endemic shorebirds, the Wrybill and the Double-Banded Plover, thus suggesting a single dispersal event as the origin of this group. Divergence dates within Charadriidae were estimated with BEAST 2, and our results indicate a Middle Miocene origin of New Zealand endemic Charadriidae, a Late Miocene emergence of the lineage leading to the New Zealand Dotterel, and a Middle to Late Pleistocene divergence of the two New Zealand Dotterel subspecies. PMID:24205094

Global biogeography of scaly tree ferns (Cyatheaceae): evidence for Gondwanan vicariance and limited transoceanic dispersal

PubMed Central

Korall, Petra; Pryer, Kathleen M

2014-01-01

Aim Scaly tree ferns, Cyatheaceae, are a well-supported group of mostly tree-forming ferns found throughout the tropics, the subtropics and the south-temperate zone. Fossil evidence shows that the lineage originated in the Late Jurassic period. We reconstructed large-scale historical biogeographical patterns of Cyatheaceae and tested the hypothesis that some of the observed distribution patterns are in fact compatible, in time and space, with a vicariance scenario related to the break-up of Gondwana. Location Tropics, subtropics and south-temperate areas of the world. Methods The historical biogeography of Cyatheaceae was analysed in a maximum likelihood framework using Lagrange. The 78 ingroup taxa are representative of the geographical distribution of the entire family. The phylogenies that served as a basis for the analyses were obtained by Bayesian inference analyses of mainly previously published DNA sequence data using MrBayes. Lineage divergence dates were estimated in a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo framework using beast. Results Cyatheaceae originated in the Late Jurassic in either South America or Australasia. Following a range expansion, the ancestral distribution of the marginate-scaled clade included both these areas, whereas Sphaeropteris is reconstructed as having its origin only in Australasia. Within the marginate-scaled clade, reconstructions of early divergences are hampered by the unresolved relationships among the Alsophila, Cyathea and Gymnosphaera lineages. Nevertheless, it is clear that the occurrence of the Cyathea and Sphaeropteris lineages in South America may be related to vicariance, whereas transoceanic dispersal needs to be inferred for the range shifts seen in Alsophila and Gymnosphaera. Main conclusions The evolutionary history of Cyatheaceae involves both Gondwanan vicariance scenarios as well as long-distance dispersal events. The number of transoceanic dispersals reconstructed for the family is rather few when compared with other fern lineages. We suggest that a causal relationship between reproductive mode (outcrossing) and dispersal limitations is the most plausible explanation for the pattern observed. PMID:25435648

Global biogeography of scaly tree ferns (Cyatheaceae): evidence for Gondwanan vicariance and limited transoceanic dispersal.

PubMed

Korall, Petra; Pryer, Kathleen M

2014-02-01

Scaly tree ferns, Cyatheaceae, are a well-supported group of mostly tree-forming ferns found throughout the tropics, the subtropics and the south-temperate zone. Fossil evidence shows that the lineage originated in the Late Jurassic period. We reconstructed large-scale historical biogeographical patterns of Cyatheaceae and tested the hypothesis that some of the observed distribution patterns are in fact compatible, in time and space, with a vicariance scenario related to the break-up of Gondwana. Tropics, subtropics and south-temperate areas of the world. The historical biogeography of Cyatheaceae was analysed in a maximum likelihood framework using Lagrange. The 78 ingroup taxa are representative of the geographical distribution of the entire family. The phylogenies that served as a basis for the analyses were obtained by Bayesian inference analyses of mainly previously published DNA sequence data using MrBayes. Lineage divergence dates were estimated in a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo framework using beast. Cyatheaceae originated in the Late Jurassic in either South America or Australasia. Following a range expansion, the ancestral distribution of the marginate-scaled clade included both these areas, whereas Sphaeropteris is reconstructed as having its origin only in Australasia. Within the marginate-scaled clade, reconstructions of early divergences are hampered by the unresolved relationships among the Alsophila , Cyathea and Gymnosphaera lineages. Nevertheless, it is clear that the occurrence of the Cyathea and Sphaeropteris lineages in South America may be related to vicariance, whereas transoceanic dispersal needs to be inferred for the range shifts seen in Alsophila and Gymnosphaera . The evolutionary history of Cyatheaceae involves both Gondwanan vicariance scenarios as well as long-distance dispersal events. The number of transoceanic dispersals reconstructed for the family is rather few when compared with other fern lineages. We suggest that a causal relationship between reproductive mode (outcrossing) and dispersal limitations is the most plausible explanation for the pattern observed.

Information content of incubation experiments for inverse estimation of pools in the Rothamsted carbon model: a Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scharnagl, Benedikt; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Vereecken, Harry; Herbst, Michael

2010-05-01

Turnover of soil organic matter is usually described with multi-compartment models. However, a major drawback of these models is that the conceptually defined compartments (or pools) do not necessarily correspond to measurable soil organic carbon (SOC) fractions in real practice. This not only impairs our ability to rigorously evaluate SOC models but also makes it difficult to derive accurate initial states. In this study, we tested the usefulness and applicability of inverse modeling to derive the various carbon pool sizes in the Rothamsted carbon model (ROTHC) using a synthetic time series of mineralization rates from laboratory incubation. To appropriately account for data and model uncertainty we considered a Bayesian approach using the recently developed DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. This Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme derives the posterior probability density distribution of the initial pool sizes at the start of incubation from observed mineralization rates. We used the Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify the information contained in the data and to illustrate the effect of increasing incubation times on the reliability of the pool size estimates. Our results show that measured mineralization rates generally provide sufficient information to reliably estimate the sizes of all active pools in the ROTHC model. However, with about 900 days of incubation, these experiments are excessively long. The use of prior information on microbial biomass provided a way forward to significantly reduce uncertainty and required duration of incubation to about 600 days. Explicit consideration of model parameter uncertainty in the estimation process further impaired the identifiability of initial pools, especially for the more slowly decomposing pools. Our illustrative case studies show how Bayesian inverse modeling can be used to provide important insights into the information content of incubation experiments. Moreover, the outcome of this virtual experiment helps to explain the results of related real-world studies on SOC dynamics.

Multiple independent introductions of Plasmodium falciparum in South America

PubMed Central

Yalcindag, Erhan; Elguero, Eric; Arnathau, Céline; Durand, Patrick; Akiana, Jean; Anderson, Timothy J.; Aubouy, Agnes; Balloux, François; Besnard, Patrick; Bogreau, Hervé; Carnevale, Pierre; D'Alessandro, Umberto; Fontenille, Didier; Gamboa, Dionicia; Jombart, Thibaut; Le Mire, Jacques; Leroy, Eric; Maestre, Amanda; Mayxay, Mayfong; Ménard, Didier; Musset, Lise; Newton, Paul N.; Nkoghé, Dieudonné; Noya, Oscar; Ollomo, Benjamin; Rogier, Christophe; Veron, Vincent; Wide, Albina; Zakeri, Sedigheh; Carme, Bernard; Legrand, Eric; Chevillon, Christine; Ayala, Francisco J.; Renaud, François; Prugnolle, Franck

2012-01-01

The origin of Plasmodium falciparum in South America is controversial. Some studies suggest a recent introduction during the European colonizations and the transatlantic slave trade. Other evidence—archeological and genetic—suggests a much older origin. We collected and analyzed P. falciparum isolates from different regions of the world, encompassing the distribution range of the parasite, including populations from sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South America. Analyses of microsatellite and SNP polymorphisms show that the populations of P. falciparum in South America are subdivided in two main genetic clusters (northern and southern). Phylogenetic analyses, as well as Approximate Bayesian Computation methods suggest independent introductions of the two clusters from African sources. Our estimates of divergence time between the South American populations and their likely sources favor a likely introduction from Africa during the transatlantic slave trade. PMID:22203975

Molecular phylogeny of the subgenus Ceratotropis (genus Vigna, Leguminosae) reveals three eco-geographical groups and Late Pliocene-Pleistocene diversification: evidence from four plastid DNA region sequences.

PubMed

Javadi, Firouzeh; Tun, Ye Tun; Kawase, Makoto; Guan, Kaiyun; Yamaguchi, Hirofumi

2011-08-01

The subgenus Ceratotropis in the genus Vigna is widely distributed from the Himalayan highlands to South, Southeast and East Asia. However, the interspecific and geographical relationships of its members are poorly understood. This study investigates the phylogeny and biogeography of the subgenus Ceratotropis using chloroplast DNA sequence data. Sequence data from four intergenic spacer regions (petA-psbJ, psbD-trnT, trnT-trnE and trnT-trnL) of chloroplast DNA, alone and in combination, were analysed using Bayesian and parsimony methods. Divergence times for major clades were estimated with penalized likelihood. Character evolution was examined by means of parsimony optimization and MacClade. Parsimony and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses on the combined data demonstrated well-resolved species relationships in which 18 Vigna species were divided into two major geographical clades: the East Asia-Southeast Asian clade and the Indian subcontinent clade. Within these two clades, three well-supported eco-geographical groups, temperate and subtropical (the East Asia-Southeast Asian clade) and tropical (the Indian subcontinent clade), are recognized. The temperate group consists of V. minima, V. nepalensis and V. angularis. The subtropical group comprises the V. nakashimae-V. riukiuensis-V. minima subgroup and the V. hirtella-V. exilis-V. umbellata subgroup. The tropical group contains two subgroups: the V. trinervia-V. reflexo-pilosa-V. trilobata subgroup and the V. mungo-V. grandiflora subgroup. An evolutionary rate analysis estimated the divergence time between the East Asia-Southeast Asia clade and the Indian subcontinent clade as 3·62 ± 0·3 million years, and that between the temperate and subtropical groups as 2·0 ± 0·2 million years. The findings provide an improved understanding of the interspecific relationships, and ecological and geographical phylogenetic structure of the subgenus Ceratotropis. The quaternary diversification of the subgenus Ceratotropis implicates its geographical dispersal in the south-eastern part of Asia involving adaptation to climatic condition after the collision of the Indian subcontinent with the Asian plate. The phylogenetic results indicate that the epigeal germination is plesiomorphic, and the germination type evolved independently multiple times in this subgenus, implying its limited taxonomic utility.

Repeated and Time-Correlated Morphological Convergence in Cave-Dwelling Harvestmen (Opiliones, Laniatores) from Montane Western North America

PubMed Central

Derkarabetian, Shahan; Steinmann, David B.; Hedin, Marshal

2010-01-01

Background Many cave-dwelling animal species display similar morphologies (troglomorphism) that have evolved convergent within and among lineages under the similar selective pressures imposed by cave habitats. Here we study such ecomorphological evolution in cave-dwelling Sclerobuninae harvestmen (Opiliones) from the western United States, providing general insights into morphological homoplasy, rates of morphological change, and the temporal context of cave evolution. Methodology/Principal Findings We gathered DNA sequence data from three independent gene regions, and combined these data with Bayesian hypothesis testing, morphometrics analysis, study of penis morphology, and relaxed molecular clock analyses. Using multivariate morphometric analysis, we find that phylogenetically unrelated taxa have convergently evolved troglomorphism; alternative phylogenetic hypotheses involving less morphological convergence are not supported by Bayesian hypothesis testing. In one instance, this morphology is found in specimens from a high-elevation stony debris habitat, suggesting that troglomorphism can evolve in non-cave habitats. We discovered a strong positive relationship between troglomorphy index and relative divergence time, making it possible to predict taxon age from morphology. Most of our time estimates for the origin of highly-troglomorphic cave forms predate the Pleistocene. Conclusions/Significance While several regions in the eastern and central United States are well-known hotspots for cave evolution, few modern phylogenetic studies have addressed the evolution of cave-obligate species in the western United States. Our integrative studies reveal the recurrent evolution of troglomorphism in a perhaps unexpected geographic region, at surprisingly deep time depths, and in sometimes surprising habitats. Because some newly discovered troglomorphic populations represent undescribed species, our findings stress the need for further biological exploration, integrative systematic research, and conservation efforts in western US cave habitats. PMID:20479884

Phylogeny of world stag beetles (Coleoptera: Lucanidae) reveals a Gondwanan origin of Darwin's stag beetle.

PubMed

Kim, Sang Il; Farrell, Brian D

2015-05-01

Stag beetles (family Lucanidae Latreille, 1804) are one of the earliest branching lineages of scarab beetles that are characterized by the striking development of the male mandibles. Despite stag beetles' popularity among traditional taxonomists and amateur collectors, there has been almost no study of lucanid relationships and evolution. Entomologists, including Jeannel (1942), have long recognized resemblance between the austral stag beetles of the tribes Chiasognathini, Colophonini, Lamprimini, Pholidotini, Rhyssonotini, and Streptocerini, but this hypothesis of their close relationship across the continents has never been tested. To gain further insight into lucanid phylogeny and biogeography, we reconstructed the first molecular phylogeny of world stag beetles using DNA sequences from mitochondrial 16S rDNA, nuclear 18S and 28S rDNA, and the nuclear protein-coding (NPC) gene wingless for 93 lucanid species representing all extant subfamilies and 24 out of the 27 tribes, together with 14 representative samples of other early branching scarabaeoid families and two staphyliniform beetle families as outgroups. Both Bayesian inference (BI) and maximum likelihood inference (MLI) strongly supported the monophyly of Lucanidae sensu lato that includes Diphyllostomatidae. Within Lucanidae sensu stricto, the subfamilies Lucaninae and Lampriminae appeared monophyletic under both methods of phylogenetic inferences; however, Aesalinae and Syndesinae were found to be polyphyletic. A time-calibrated phylogeny based on five fossil data estimated the origin of crown group Lucanidae as circa 160 million years ago (MYA). Divergence between the Neotropical and Australasian groups of the Chiasognathini was estimated to be circa 47MYA, with the South African Colophonini branching off from the ancient Chiasognathini lineage around 87MYA. Another Gondwanan relationship was recovered between the Australasian Eucarteria and the Neotropical Casignetus, which diverged circa 58MYA. Lastly, as Jeannel's hypothesis predicted, divergence within Lampriminae between the Australasian Lamprima and the Neotropical Streptocerus was estimated to be circa 37MYA. The split of these lineages were generally concordant with the pattern of continental break-up of the super-continent Gondwana, and our biogeographic reconstructions based on the dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis model (DEC) corroborate our view that the divergences in these austral lineages were caused by vicariance events following the Gondwanan break-up. In addition, the phylogenetic position and geographic origin of the Hawaiian genus Apterocyclus was revealed for the first time. Overall, our results provide the framework toward studying lucanid relationships and divergence time estimates, which allowed for more accurate biogeographic explanations and discussions on ancestral lucanids and the evolutionary origin of the enlarged male mandibles. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inferring spatial patterns and drivers of population divergence of Neolitsea sericea (Lauraceae), based on molecular phylogeography and landscape genomics.

PubMed

Cao, Ya-Nan; Wang, Ian J; Chen, Lu-Yao; Ding, Yan-Qian; Liu, Lu-Xian; Qiu, Ying-Xiong

2018-04-17

The relative roles of geography, climate and ecology in driving population divergence and (incipient) speciation has so far been largely neglected in studies addressing the evolution of East Asia's island flora. Here, we employed chloroplast and ribosomal DNA sequences and restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) loci to investigate the phylogeography and drivers of population divergence of Neolitsea sericea. These data sets support the subdivision of N. sericea populations into the Southern and Northern lineages across the 'Tokara gap'. Two distinct sublineages were further identified for the Northern lineage of N. sericea from the RADseq data. RADseq was also used along with approximate Bayesian computation to show that the current distribution and differentiation of N. sericea populations resulted from a combination of relatively ancient migration and successive vicariant events that likely occurred during the mid to late Pleistocene. Landscape genomic analyses showed that, apart from geographic barriers, barrier, potentially local adaptation to different climatic conditions appears to be one of the major drivers for lineage diversification of N. sericea. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Complete Mitochondrial Genome of the Land Snail Cornu aspersum (Helicidae: Mollusca): Intra-Specific Divergence of Protein-Coding Genes and Phylogenetic Considerations within Euthyneura

PubMed Central

Gaitán-Espitia, Juan Diego; Nespolo, Roberto F.; Opazo, Juan C.

2013-01-01

The complete sequences of three mitochondrial genomes from the land snail Cornu aspersum were determined. The mitogenome has a length of 14050 bp, and it encodes 13 protein-coding genes, 22 transfer RNA genes and two ribosomal RNA genes. It also includes nine small intergene spacers, and a large AT-rich intergenic spacer. The intra-specific divergence analysis revealed that COX1 has the lower genetic differentiation, while the most divergent genes were NADH1, NADH3 and NADH4. With the exception of Euhadra herklotsi, the structural comparisons showed the same gene order within the family Helicidae, and nearly identical gene organization to that found in order Pulmonata. Phylogenetic reconstruction recovered Basommatophora as polyphyletic group, whereas Eupulmonata and Pulmonata as paraphyletic groups. Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood analyses showed that C. aspersum is a close relative of Cepaea nemoralis, and with the other Helicidae species form a sister group of Albinaria caerulea, supporting the monophyly of the Stylommatophora clade. PMID:23826260

Adaptive evolution in the Arabidopsis MADS-box gene family inferred from its complete resolved phylogeny

PubMed Central

Martínez-Castilla, León Patricio; Alvarez-Buylla, Elena R.

2003-01-01

Gene duplication is a substrate of evolution. However, the relative importance of positive selection versus relaxation of constraints in the functional divergence of gene copies is still under debate. Plant MADS-box genes encode transcriptional regulators key in various aspects of development and have undergone extensive duplications to form a large family. We recovered 104 MADS sequences from the Arabidopsis genome. Bayesian phylogenetic trees recover type II lineage as a monophyletic group and resolve a branching sequence of monophyletic groups within this lineage. The type I lineage is comprised of several divergent groups. However, contrasting gene structure and patterns of chromosomal distribution between type I and II sequences suggest that they had different evolutionary histories and support the placement of the root of the gene family between these two groups. Site-specific and site-branch analyses of positive Darwinian selection (PDS) suggest that different selection regimes could have affected the evolution of these lineages. We found evidence for PDS along the branch leading to flowering time genes that have a direct impact on plant fitness. Sites with high probabilities of having been under PDS were found in the MADS and K domains, suggesting that these played important roles in the acquisition of novel functions during MADS-box diversification. Detected sites are targets for further experimental analyses. We argue that adaptive changes in MADS-domain protein sequences have been important for their functional divergence, suggesting that changes within coding regions of transcriptional regulators have influenced phenotypic evolution of plants. PMID:14597714

Multilocus phylogeographic assessment of the California Mountain Kingsnake (Lampropeltis zonata) suggests alternative patterns of diversification for the California Floristic Province.

PubMed

Myers, E A; Rodríguez-Robles, J A; Denardo, D F; Staub, R E; Stropoli, A; Ruane, S; Burbrink, F T

2013-11-01

Phylogeographic inference can determine the timing of population divergence, historical demographic processes, patterns of migration, and when extended to multiple species, the history of communities. Single-locus analyses can mislead interpretations of the evolutionary history of taxa and comparative analyses. It is therefore important to revisit previous single-locus phylogeographic studies, particularly those that have been used to propose general patterns for regional biotas and the processes responsible for generating inferred patterns. Here, we employ a multilocus statistical approach to re-examine the phylogeography of Lampropeltis zonata. Using nonparametic and Bayesian species delimitation, we determined that there are two well-supported species within L. zonata. Ecological niche modelling supports the delimitation of these taxa, suggesting that the two species inhabit distinct climatic environments. Gene flow between the two taxa is low and appears to occur unidirectionally. Further, our data suggest that gene flow was mediated by females, a rare pattern in snakes. In contrast to previous analyses, we determined that the divergence between the two lineages occurred in the late Pliocene (c. 2.07 Ma). Spatially and temporally, the divergence of these lineages is associated with the inundation of central California by the Monterey Bay. The effective population sizes of the two species appear to have been unaffected by Pleistocene glaciation. Our increased sampling of loci for L. zonata, combined with previously published multilocus analyses of other sympatric species, suggests that previous conclusions reached by comparative phylogeographic studies conducted within the California Floristic Province should be reassessed. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Distinct subspecies or phenotypic plasticity? Genetic and morphological differentiation of mountain honey bees in East Africa.

PubMed

Gruber, Karl; Schöning, Caspar; Otte, Marianne; Kinuthia, Wanja; Hasselmann, Martin

2013-09-01

Identifying the forces shaping intraspecific phenotypic and genotypic divergence are of key importance in evolutionary biology. Phenotypic divergence may result from local adaptation or, especially in species with strong gene flow, from pronounced phenotypic plasticity. Here, we examine morphological and genetic divergence among populations of the western honey bee Apis mellifera in the topographically heterogeneous East African region. The currently accepted "mountain refugia hypothesis" states that populations living in disjunct montane forests belong to a different lineage than those in savanna habitats surrounding these forests. We obtained microsatellite data, mitochondrial sequences, and morphometric data from worker honey bees collected from feral colonies in three montane forests and corresponding neighboring savanna regions in Kenya. Honey bee colonies from montane forests showed distinct worker morphology compared with colonies in savanna areas. Mitochondrial sequence data did not support the existence of the two currently accepted subspecies. Furthermore, analyses of the microsatellite data with a Bayesian clustering method did not support the existence of two source populations as it would be expected under the mountain refugia scenario. Our findings suggest that phenotypic plasticity rather than distinct ancestry is the leading cause behind the phenotypic divergence observed between montane forest and savanna honey bees. Our study thus corroborates the idea that high gene flow may select for increased plasticity.

Do cryptic species exist in Hoplobatrachus rugulosus? An examination using four nuclear genes, the cyt b gene and the complete MT genome.

PubMed

Yu, Danna; Zhang, Jiayong; Li, Peng; Zheng, Rongquan; Shao, Chen

2015-01-01

he Chinese tiger frog Hoplobatrachus rugulosus is widely distributed in southern China, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. It is listed in Appendix II of CITES as the only Class II nationally-protected frog in China. The bred tiger frog known as the Thailand tiger frog, is also identified as H. rugulosus. Our analysis of the Cyt b gene showed high genetic divergence (13.8%) between wild and bred samples of tiger frog. Unexpected genetic divergence of the complete mt genome (14.0%) was also observed between wild and bred samples of tiger frog. Yet, the nuclear genes (NCX1, Rag1, Rhod, Tyr) showed little divergence between them. Despite this and their very similar morphology, the features of the mitochondrial genome including genetic divergence of other genes, different three-dimensional structures of ND5 proteins, and gene rearrangements indicate that H. rugulosus may be a cryptic species complex. Using Bayesian inference, maximum likelihood, and maximum parsimony analyses, Hoplobatrachus was resolved as a sister clade to Euphlyctis, and H. rugulosus (BT) as a sister clade to H. rugulosus (WT). We suggest that we should prevent Thailand tiger frogs (bred type) from escaping into wild environments lest they produce hybrids with Chinese tiger frogs (wild type).

Do Cryptic Species Exist in Hoplobatrachus rugulosus? An Examination Using Four Nuclear Genes, the Cyt b Gene and the Complete MT Genome

PubMed Central

Li, Peng; Zheng, Rongquan; Shao, Chen

2015-01-01

he Chinese tiger frog Hoplobatrachus rugulosus is widely distributed in southern China, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. It is listed in Appendix II of CITES as the only Class II nationally-protected frog in China. The bred tiger frog known as the Thailand tiger frog, is also identified as H. rugulosus. Our analysis of the Cyt b gene showed high genetic divergence (13.8%) between wild and bred samples of tiger frog. Unexpected genetic divergence of the complete mt genome (14.0%) was also observed between wild and bred samples of tiger frog. Yet, the nuclear genes (NCX1, Rag1, Rhod, Tyr) showed little divergence between them. Despite this and their very similar morphology, the features of the mitochondrial genome including genetic divergence of other genes, different three-dimensional structures of ND5 proteins, and gene rearrangements indicate that H. rugulosus may be a cryptic species complex. Using Bayesian inference, maximum likelihood, and maximum parsimony analyses, Hoplobatrachus was resolved as a sister clade to Euphlyctis, and H. rugulosus (BT) as a sister clade to H. rugulosus (WT). We suggest that we should prevent Thailand tiger frogs (bred type) from escaping into wild environments lest they produce hybrids with Chinese tiger frogs (wild type). PMID:25875761

The evolutionary stability of cross-sex, cross-trait genetic covariances.

PubMed

Gosden, Thomas P; Chenoweth, Stephen F

2014-06-01

Although knowledge of the selective agents behind the evolution of sexual dimorphism has advanced considerably in recent years, we still lack a clear understanding of the evolutionary durability of cross-sex genetic covariances that often constrain its evolution. We tested the relative stability of cross-sex genetic covariances for a suite of homologous contact pheromones of the fruit fly Drosophila serrata, along a latitudinal gradient where these traits have diverged in mean. Using a Bayesian framework, which allowed us to account for uncertainty in all parameter estimates, we compared divergence in the total amount and orientation of genetic variance across populations, finding divergence in orientation but not total variance. We then statistically compared orientation divergence of within-sex (G) to cross-sex (B) covariance matrices. In line with a previous theoretical prediction, we find that the cross-sex covariance matrix, B, is more variable than either within-sex G matrix. Decomposition of B matrices into their symmetrical and nonsymmetrical components revealed that instability is linked to the degree of asymmetry. We also find that the degree of asymmetry correlates with latitude suggesting a role for spatially varying natural selection in shaping genetic constraints on the evolution of sexual dimorphism. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Epigenetic differentiation and relationship to adaptive genetic divergence in discrete populations of the violet Viola cazorlensis.

PubMed

Herrera, Carlos M; Bazaga, Pilar

2010-08-01

*In plants, epigenetic variations based on DNA methylation are often heritable and could influence the course of evolution. Before this hypothesis can be assessed, fundamental questions about epigenetic variation remain to be addressed in a real-world context, including its magnitude, structuring within and among natural populations, and autonomy in relation to the genetic context. *Extent and patterns of cytosine methylation, and the relationship to adaptive genetic divergence between populations, were investigated for wild populations of the southern Spanish violet Viola cazorlensis (Violaceae) using the methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP) technique, a modification of the amplified fragment length polymorphism method (AFLP) based on the differential sensitivity of isoschizomeric restriction enzymes to site-specific cytosine methylation. *The genome of V. cazorlensis plants exhibited extensive levels of methylation, and methylation-based epigenetic variation was structured into distinct between- and within- population components. Epigenetic differentiation of populations was correlated with adaptive genetic divergence revealed by a Bayesian population-genomic analysis of AFLP data. Significant associations existed at the individual genome level between adaptive AFLP loci and the methylation state of methylation-susceptible MSAP loci. *Population-specific, divergent patterns of correlated selection on epigenetic and genetic individual variation could account for the coordinated epigenetic-genetic adaptive population differentiation revealed by this study.

Corrected placement of Mus-Rattus fossil calibration forces precision in the molecular tree of rodents.

PubMed

Kimura, Yuri; Hawkins, Melissa T R; McDonough, Molly M; Jacobs, Louis L; Flynn, Lawrence J

2015-09-28

Time calibration derived from the fossil record is essential for molecular phylogenetic and evolutionary studies. Fossil mice and rats, discovered in the Siwalik Group of Pakistan, have served as one of the best-known fossil calibration points in molecular phylogenic studies. Although these fossils have been widely used as the 12 Ma date for the Mus/Rattus split or a more basal split, conclusive paleontological evidence for the nodal assignments has been absent. This study analyzes newly recognized characters that demonstrate lineage separation in the fossil record of Siwalik murines and examines the most reasonable nodal placement of the diverging lineages in a molecular phylogenetic tree by ancestral state reconstruction. Our specimen-based approach strongly indicates that Siwalik murines of the Karnimata clade are fossil members of the Arvicanthini-Otomyini-Millardini clade, which excludes Rattus and its relatives. Combining the new interpretation with the widely accepted hypothesis that the Progonomys clade includes Mus, the lineage separation event in the Siwalik fossil record represents the Mus/Arvicanthis split. Our test analysis on Bayesian age estimates shows that this new calibration point provides more accurate estimates of murine divergence than previous applications. Thus, we define this fossil calibration point and refine two other fossil-based points for molecular dating.

Corrected placement of Mus-Rattus fossil calibration forces precision in the molecular tree of rodents

PubMed Central

Kimura, Yuri; Hawkins, Melissa T. R.; McDonough, Molly M.; Jacobs, Louis L.; Flynn, Lawrence J.

2015-01-01

Time calibration derived from the fossil record is essential for molecular phylogenetic and evolutionary studies. Fossil mice and rats, discovered in the Siwalik Group of Pakistan, have served as one of the best-known fossil calibration points in molecular phylogenic studies. Although these fossils have been widely used as the 12 Ma date for the Mus/Rattus split or a more basal split, conclusive paleontological evidence for the nodal assignments has been absent. This study analyzes newly recognized characters that demonstrate lineage separation in the fossil record of Siwalik murines and examines the most reasonable nodal placement of the diverging lineages in a molecular phylogenetic tree by ancestral state reconstruction. Our specimen-based approach strongly indicates that Siwalik murines of the Karnimata clade are fossil members of the Arvicanthini-Otomyini-Millardini clade, which excludes Rattus and its relatives. Combining the new interpretation with the widely accepted hypothesis that the Progonomys clade includes Mus, the lineage separation event in the Siwalik fossil record represents the Mus/Arvicanthis split. Our test analysis on Bayesian age estimates shows that this new calibration point provides more accurate estimates of murine divergence than previous applications. Thus, we define this fossil calibration point and refine two other fossil-based points for molecular dating. PMID:26411391

Genetic homogeneity of the invasive lionfish across the Northwestern Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico based on Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms.

PubMed

Pérez-Portela, R; Bumford, A; Coffman, B; Wedelich, S; Davenport, M; Fogg, A; Swenarton, M K; Coleman, F; Johnston, M A; Crawford, D L; Oleksiak, M F

2018-03-22

Despite the devastating impact of the lionfish (Pterois volitans) invasion on NW Atlantic ecosystems, little genetic information about the invasion process is available. We applied Genotyping by Sequencing techniques to identify 1,220 single nucleotide polymorphic sites (SNPs) from 162 lionfish samples collected between 2013 and 2015 from two areas chronologically identified as the first and last invaded areas in US waters: the east coast of Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. We used population genomic analyses, including phylogenetic reconstruction, Bayesian clustering, genetic distances, Discriminant Analyses of Principal Components, and coalescence simulations for detection of outlier SNPs, to understand genetic trends relevant to the lionfish's long-term persistence. We found no significant differences in genetic structure or diversity between the two areas (F ST p-values > 0.01, and t-test p-values > 0.05). In fact, our genomic analyses showed genetic homogeneity, with enough gene flow between the east coast of Florida and Gulf of Mexico to erase previous signals of genetic divergence detected between these areas, secondary spreading, and bottlenecks in the Gulf of Mexico. These findings suggest rapid genetic changes over space and time during the invasion, resulting in one panmictic population with no signs of divergence between areas due to local adaptation.

BiomeNet: A Bayesian Model for Inference of Metabolic Divergence among Microbial Communities

PubMed Central

Chipman, Hugh; Gu, Hong; Bielawski, Joseph P.

2014-01-01

Metagenomics yields enormous numbers of microbial sequences that can be assigned a metabolic function. Using such data to infer community-level metabolic divergence is hindered by the lack of a suitable statistical framework. Here, we describe a novel hierarchical Bayesian model, called BiomeNet (Bayesian inference of metabolic networks), for inferring differential prevalence of metabolic subnetworks among microbial communities. To infer the structure of community-level metabolic interactions, BiomeNet applies a mixed-membership modelling framework to enzyme abundance information. The basic idea is that the mixture components of the model (metabolic reactions, subnetworks, and networks) are shared across all groups (microbiome samples), but the mixture proportions vary from group to group. Through this framework, the model can capture nested structures within the data. BiomeNet is unique in modeling each metagenome sample as a mixture of complex metabolic systems (metabosystems). The metabosystems are composed of mixtures of tightly connected metabolic subnetworks. BiomeNet differs from other unsupervised methods by allowing researchers to discriminate groups of samples through the metabolic patterns it discovers in the data, and by providing a framework for interpreting them. We describe a collapsed Gibbs sampler for inference of the mixture weights under BiomeNet, and we use simulation to validate the inference algorithm. Application of BiomeNet to human gut metagenomes revealed a metabosystem with greater prevalence among inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients. Based on the discriminatory subnetworks for this metabosystem, we inferred that the community is likely to be closely associated with the human gut epithelium, resistant to dietary interventions, and interfere with human uptake of an antioxidant connected to IBD. Because this metabosystem has a greater capacity to exploit host-associated glycans, we speculate that IBD-associated communities might arise from opportunist growth of bacteria that can circumvent the host's nutrient-based mechanism for bacterial partner selection. PMID:25412107

Getting there and around: Host range oscillations during colonization of the Canary Islands by the parasitic nematode Spauligodon.

PubMed

Jorge, Fátima; Perera, Ana; Poulin, Robert; Roca, Vicente; Carretero, Miguel A

2018-01-01

Episodes of expansion and isolation in geographic range over space and time, during which parasites have the opportunity to expand their host range, are linked to the development of host-parasite mosaic assemblages and parasite diversification. In this study, we investigated whether island colonization events lead to host range oscillations in a taxon of host-specific parasitic nematodes of the genus Spauligodon in the Canary Islands. We further investigated whether range oscillations also resulted in shifts in host breadth (i.e., specialization), as expected for parasites on islands. Parasite phylogeny and divergence time estimates were inferred from molecular data with Bayesian methods. Host divergence times were set as calibration priors after a priori evaluation with a global-fit method of which individual host-parasite associations likely represent cospeciation links. Parasite colonization history was reconstructed, followed by an estimation of oscillation events and specificity level. The results indicate the presence of four Spauligodon clades in the Canary Islands, which originated from at least three different colonization events. We found evidence of host range oscillations to truly novel hosts, which in one case led to higher diversification. Contemporary host-parasite associations show strong host specificity, suggesting that changes in host breadth were limited to the shift period. Lineages with more frequent and wider taxonomic host range oscillations prior to the initial colonization event showed wider range oscillations during colonization and diversification within the archipelago. Our results suggest that a lineage's evolutionary past may be the best indicator of a parasite's potential for future range expansions. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Iterative Bayesian Estimation of Travel Times on Urban Arterials: Fusing Loop Detector and Probe Vehicle Data.

PubMed

Liu, Kai; Cui, Meng-Ying; Cao, Peng; Wang, Jiang-Bo

2016-01-01

On urban arterials, travel time estimation is challenging especially from various data sources. Typically, fusing loop detector data and probe vehicle data to estimate travel time is a troublesome issue while considering the data issue of uncertain, imprecise and even conflicting. In this paper, we propose an improved data fusing methodology for link travel time estimation. Link travel times are simultaneously pre-estimated using loop detector data and probe vehicle data, based on which Bayesian fusion is then applied to fuse the estimated travel times. Next, Iterative Bayesian estimation is proposed to improve Bayesian fusion by incorporating two strategies: 1) substitution strategy which replaces the lower accurate travel time estimation from one sensor with the current fused travel time; and 2) specially-designed conditions for convergence which restrict the estimated travel time in a reasonable range. The estimation results show that, the proposed method outperforms probe vehicle data based method, loop detector based method and single Bayesian fusion, and the mean absolute percentage error is reduced to 4.8%. Additionally, iterative Bayesian estimation performs better for lighter traffic flows when the variability of travel time is practically higher than other periods.

Iterative Bayesian Estimation of Travel Times on Urban Arterials: Fusing Loop Detector and Probe Vehicle Data

PubMed Central

Cui, Meng-Ying; Cao, Peng; Wang, Jiang-Bo

2016-01-01

On urban arterials, travel time estimation is challenging especially from various data sources. Typically, fusing loop detector data and probe vehicle data to estimate travel time is a troublesome issue while considering the data issue of uncertain, imprecise and even conflicting. In this paper, we propose an improved data fusing methodology for link travel time estimation. Link travel times are simultaneously pre-estimated using loop detector data and probe vehicle data, based on which Bayesian fusion is then applied to fuse the estimated travel times. Next, Iterative Bayesian estimation is proposed to improve Bayesian fusion by incorporating two strategies: 1) substitution strategy which replaces the lower accurate travel time estimation from one sensor with the current fused travel time; and 2) specially-designed conditions for convergence which restrict the estimated travel time in a reasonable range. The estimation results show that, the proposed method outperforms probe vehicle data based method, loop detector based method and single Bayesian fusion, and the mean absolute percentage error is reduced to 4.8%. Additionally, iterative Bayesian estimation performs better for lighter traffic flows when the variability of travel time is practically higher than other periods. PMID:27362654

Tracing the colonization history of the Indian Ocean scops-owls (Strigiformes: Otus) with further insight into the spatio-temporal origin of the Malagasy avifauna.

PubMed

Fuchs, Jérôme; Pons, Jean-Marc; Goodman, Steven M; Bretagnolle, Vincent; Melo, Martim; Bowie, Rauri C K; Currie, David; Safford, Roger; Virani, Munir Z; Thomsett, Simon; Hija, Alawi; Cruaud, Corinne; Pasquet, Eric

2008-07-09

The island of Madagascar and surrounding volcanic and coralline islands are considered to form a biodiversity hotspot with large numbers of unique taxa. The origin of this endemic fauna can be explained by two different factors: vicariance or over-water-dispersal. Deciphering which factor explains the current distributional pattern of a given taxonomic group requires robust phylogenies as well as estimates of divergence times. The lineage of Indian Ocean scops-owls (Otus: Strigidae) includes six or seven species that are endemic to Madagascar and portions of the Comoros and Seychelles archipelagos; little is known about the species limits, biogeographic affinities and relationships to each other. In the present study, using DNA sequence data gathered from six loci, we examine the biogeographic history of the Indian Ocean scops-owls. We also compare the pattern and timing of colonization of the Indian Ocean islands by scops-owls with divergence times already proposed for other bird taxa. Our analyses revealed that Indian Ocean islands scops-owls do not form a monophyletic assemblage: the Seychelles Otus insularis is genetically closer to the South-East Asian endemic O. sunia than to species from the Comoros and Madagascar. The Pemba Scops-owls O. pembaensis, often considered closely related to, if not conspecific with O. rutilus of Madagascar, is instead closely related to the African mainland O. senegalensis. Relationships among the Indian Ocean taxa from the Comoros and Madagascar are unresolved, despite the analysis of over 4000 bp, suggesting a diversification burst after the initial colonization event. We also highlight one case of putative back-colonization to the Asian mainland from an island ancestor (O. sunia). Our divergence date estimates, using a Bayesian relaxed clock method, suggest that all these events occurred during the last 3.6 myr; albeit colonization of the Indian Ocean islands were not synchronous, O. pembaensis diverged from O. senegalensis about 1.7 mya while species from Madagascar and the Comoro diverged from their continental sister-group about 3.6 mya. We highlight that our estimates coincide with estimates of diversification from other bird lineages. Our analyses revealed the occurrence of multiple synchronous colonization events of the Indian Ocean islands by scops-owls, at a time when faunistic exchanges involving Madagascar was common as a result of lowered sea-level that would have allowed the formation of stepping-stone islands. Patterns of diversification that emerged from the scops-owls data are: 1) a star-like pattern concerning the order of colonization of the Indian Ocean islands and 2) the high genetic distinctiveness among all Indian Ocean taxa, reinforcing their recognition as distinct species.

Tracing the colonization history of the Indian Ocean scops-owls (Strigiformes: Otus) with further insight into the spatio-temporal origin of the Malagasy avifauna

PubMed Central

2008-01-01

Background The island of Madagascar and surrounding volcanic and coralline islands are considered to form a biodiversity hotspot with large numbers of unique taxa. The origin of this endemic fauna can be explained by two different factors: vicariance or over-water-dispersal. Deciphering which factor explains the current distributional pattern of a given taxonomic group requires robust phylogenies as well as estimates of divergence times. The lineage of Indian Ocean scops-owls (Otus: Strigidae) includes six or seven species that are endemic to Madagascar and portions of the Comoros and Seychelles archipelagos; little is known about the species limits, biogeographic affinities and relationships to each other. In the present study, using DNA sequence data gathered from six loci, we examine the biogeographic history of the Indian Ocean scops-owls. We also compare the pattern and timing of colonization of the Indian Ocean islands by scops-owls with divergence times already proposed for other bird taxa. Results Our analyses revealed that Indian Ocean islands scops-owls do not form a monophyletic assemblage: the Seychelles Otus insularis is genetically closer to the South-East Asian endemic O. sunia than to species from the Comoros and Madagascar. The Pemba Scops-owls O. pembaensis, often considered closely related to, if not conspecific with O. rutilus of Madagascar, is instead closely related to the African mainland O. senegalensis. Relationships among the Indian Ocean taxa from the Comoros and Madagascar are unresolved, despite the analysis of over 4000 bp, suggesting a diversification burst after the initial colonization event. We also highlight one case of putative back-colonization to the Asian mainland from an island ancestor (O. sunia). Our divergence date estimates, using a Bayesian relaxed clock method, suggest that all these events occurred during the last 3.6 myr; albeit colonization of the Indian Ocean islands were not synchronous, O. pembaensis diverged from O. senegalensis about 1.7 mya while species from Madagascar and the Comoro diverged from their continental sister-group about 3.6 mya. We highlight that our estimates coincide with estimates of diversification from other bird lineages. Conclusion Our analyses revealed the occurrence of multiple synchronous colonization events of the Indian Ocean islands by scops-owls, at a time when faunistic exchanges involving Madagascar was common as a result of lowered sea-level that would have allowed the formation of stepping-stone islands. Patterns of diversification that emerged from the scops-owls data are: 1) a star-like pattern concerning the order of colonization of the Indian Ocean islands and 2) the high genetic distinctiveness among all Indian Ocean taxa, reinforcing their recognition as distinct species. PMID:18611281

Spatio-temporal interpolation of precipitation during monsoon periods in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Ijaz; Spöck, Gunter; Pilz, Jürgen; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2010-08-01

Spatio-temporal estimation of precipitation over a region is essential to the modeling of hydrologic processes for water resources management. The changes of magnitude and space-time heterogeneity of rainfall observations make space-time estimation of precipitation a challenging task. In this paper we propose a Box-Cox transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation method for the skewed response variable. The proposed method is applied to estimate space-time monthly precipitation in the monsoon periods during 1974-2000, and 27-year monthly average precipitation data are obtained from 51 stations in Pakistan. The results of transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation are compared to those of non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian interpolation by using cross-validation. The software developed by [11] is used for Bayesian non-stationary multivariate space-time interpolation. It is observed that the transformed hierarchical Bayesian method provides more accuracy than the non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian method.

Shedding Light on the Grey Zone of Speciation along a Continuum of Genomic Divergence.

PubMed

Roux, Camille; Fraïsse, Christelle; Romiguier, Jonathan; Anciaux, Yoann; Galtier, Nicolas; Bierne, Nicolas

2016-12-01

Speciation results from the progressive accumulation of mutations that decrease the probability of mating between parental populations or reduce the fitness of hybrids-the so-called species barriers. The speciation genomic literature, however, is mainly a collection of case studies, each with its own approach and specificities, such that a global view of the gradual process of evolution from one to two species is currently lacking. Of primary importance is the prevalence of gene flow between diverging entities, which is central in most species concepts and has been widely discussed in recent years. Here, we explore the continuum of speciation thanks to a comparative analysis of genomic data from 61 pairs of populations/species of animals with variable levels of divergence. Gene flow between diverging gene pools is assessed under an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework. We show that the intermediate "grey zone" of speciation, in which taxonomy is often controversial, spans from 0.5% to 2% of net synonymous divergence, irrespective of species life history traits or ecology. Thanks to appropriate modeling of among-locus variation in genetic drift and introgression rate, we clarify the status of the majority of ambiguous cases and uncover a number of cryptic species. Our analysis also reveals the high incidence in animals of semi-isolated species (when some but not all loci are affected by barriers to gene flow) and highlights the intrinsic difficulty, both statistical and conceptual, of delineating species in the grey zone of speciation.

Phylogeny and temporal diversification of darters (Percidae: Etheostomatinae).

PubMed

Near, Thomas J; Bossu, Christen M; Bradburd, Gideon S; Carlson, Rose L; Harrington, Richard C; Hollingsworth, Phillip R; Keck, Benjamin P; Etnier, David A

2011-10-01

Discussions aimed at resolution of the Tree of Life are most often focused on the interrelationships of major organismal lineages. In this study, we focus on the resolution of some of the most apical branches in the Tree of Life through exploration of the phylogenetic relationships of darters, a species-rich clade of North American freshwater fishes. With a near-complete taxon sampling of close to 250 species, we aim to investigate strategies for efficient multilocus data sampling and the estimation of divergence times using relaxed-clock methods when a clade lacks a fossil record. Our phylogenetic data set comprises a single mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) gene and two nuclear genes sampled from 245 of the 248 darter species. This dense sampling allows us to determine if a modest amount of nuclear DNA sequence data can resolve relationships among closely related animal species. Darters lack a fossil record to provide age calibration priors in relaxed-clock analyses. Therefore, we use a near-complete species-sampled phylogeny of the perciform clade Centrarchidae, which has a rich fossil record, to assess two distinct strategies of external calibration in relaxed-clock divergence time estimates of darters: using ages inferred from the fossil record and molecular evolutionary rate estimates. Comparison of Bayesian phylogenies inferred from mtDNA and nuclear genes reveals that heterospecific mtDNA is present in approximately 12.5% of all darter species. We identify three patterns of mtDNA introgression in darters: proximal mtDNA transfer, which involves the transfer of mtDNA among extant and sympatric darter species, indeterminate introgression, which involves the transfer of mtDNA from a lineage that cannot be confidently identified because the introgressed haplotypes are not clearly referable to mtDNA haplotypes in any recognized species, and deep introgression, which is characterized by species diversification within a recipient clade subsequent to the transfer of heterospecific mtDNA. The results of our analyses indicate that DNA sequences sampled from single-copy nuclear genes can provide appreciable phylogenetic resolution for closely related animal species. A well-resolved near-complete species-sampled phylogeny of darters was estimated with Bayesian methods using a concatenated mtDNA and nuclear gene data set with all identified heterospecific mtDNA haplotypes treated as missing data. The relaxed-clock analyses resulted in very similar posterior age estimates across the three sampled genes and methods of calibration and therefore offer a viable strategy for estimating divergence times for clades that lack a fossil record. In addition, an informative rank-free clade-based classification of darters that preserves the rich history of nomenclature in the group and provides formal taxonomic communication of darter clades was constructed using the mtDNA and nuclear gene phylogeny. On the whole, the appeal of mtDNA for phylogeny inference among closely related animal species is diminished by the observations of extensive mtDNA introgression and by finding appreciable phylogenetic signal in a modest sampling of nuclear genes in our phylogenetic analyses of darters.

Genetic and morphological analyses indicate that the Australian endemic scorpion Urodacus yaschenkoi (Scorpiones: Urodacidae) is a species complex

PubMed Central

Luna-Ramirez, Karen; Miller, Adam D.

2017-01-01

Background Australian scorpions have received far less attention from researchers than their overseas counterparts. Here we provide the first insight into the molecular variation and evolutionary history of the endemic Australian scorpion Urodacus yaschenkoi. Also known as the inland robust scorpion, it is widely distributed throughout arid zones of the continent and is emerging as a model organism in biomedical research due to the chemical nature of its venom. Methods We employed Bayesian Inference (BI) methods for the phylogenetic reconstructions and divergence dating among lineages, using unique haplotype sequences from two mitochondrial loci (COXI, 16S) and one nuclear locus (28S). We also implemented two DNA taxonomy approaches (GMYC and PTP/dPTP) to evaluate the presence of cryptic species. Linear Discriminant Analysis was used to test whether the linear combination of 21 variables (ratios of morphological measurements) can predict individual’s membership to a putative species. Results Genetic and morphological data suggest that U. yaschenkoi is a species complex. High statistical support for the monophyly of several divergent lineages was found both at the mitochondrial loci and at a nuclear locus. The extent of mitochondrial divergence between these lineages exceeds estimates of interspecific divergence reported for other scorpion groups. The GMYC model and the PTP/bPTP approach identified major lineages and several sub-lineages as putative species. Ratios of several traits that approximate body shape had a strong predictive power (83–100%) in discriminating two major molecular lineages. A time-calibrated phylogeny dates the early divergence at the onset of continental-wide aridification in late Miocene and Pliocene, with finer-scale phylogeographic patterns emerging during the Pleistocene. This structuring dynamics is congruent with the diversification history of other fauna of the Australian arid zones. Discussion Our results indicate that the taxonomic status of U. yaschenkoi requires revision, and we provide recommendations for such future efforts. A complex evolutionary history and extensive diversity highlights the importance of conserving U. yaschenkoi populations from different Australian arid zones in order to preserve patterns of endemism and evolutionary potential. PMID:28123903

Information content of incubation experiments for inverse estimation of pools in the Rothamsted carbon model: a Bayesian perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scharnagl, B.; Vrugt, J. A.; Vereecken, H.; Herbst, M.

2010-02-01

A major drawback of current soil organic carbon (SOC) models is that their conceptually defined pools do not necessarily correspond to measurable SOC fractions in real practice. This not only impairs our ability to rigorously evaluate SOC models but also makes it difficult to derive accurate initial states of the individual carbon pools. In this study, we tested the feasibility of inverse modelling for estimating pools in the Rothamsted carbon model (ROTHC) using mineralization rates observed during incubation experiments. This inverse approach may provide an alternative to existing SOC fractionation methods. To illustrate our approach, we used a time series of synthetically generated mineralization rates using the ROTHC model. We adopted a Bayesian approach using the recently developed DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm to infer probability density functions of the various carbon pools at the start of incubation. The Kullback-Leibler divergence was used to quantify the information content of the mineralization rate data. Our results indicate that measured mineralization rates generally provided sufficient information to reliably estimate all carbon pools in the ROTHC model. The incubation time necessary to appropriately constrain all pools was about 900 days. The use of prior information on microbial biomass carbon significantly reduced the uncertainty of the initial carbon pools, decreasing the required incubation time to about 600 days. Simultaneous estimation of initial carbon pools and decomposition rate constants significantly increased the uncertainty of the carbon pools. This effect was most pronounced for the intermediate and slow pools. Altogether, our results demonstrate that it is particularly difficult to derive reasonable estimates of the humified organic matter pool and the inert organic matter pool from inverse modelling of mineralization rates observed during incubation experiments.

Bayesian random local clocks, or one rate to rule them all

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Relaxed molecular clock models allow divergence time dating and "relaxed phylogenetic" inference, in which a time tree is estimated in the face of unequal rates across lineages. We present a new method for relaxing the assumption of a strict molecular clock using Markov chain Monte Carlo to implement Bayesian modeling averaging over random local molecular clocks. The new method approaches the problem of rate variation among lineages by proposing a series of local molecular clocks, each extending over a subregion of the full phylogeny. Each branch in a phylogeny (subtending a clade) is a possible location for a change of rate from one local clock to a new one. Thus, including both the global molecular clock and the unconstrained model results, there are a total of 22n-2 possible rate models available for averaging with 1, 2, ..., 2n - 2 different rate categories. Results We propose an efficient method to sample this model space while simultaneously estimating the phylogeny. The new method conveniently allows a direct test of the strict molecular clock, in which one rate rules them all, against a large array of alternative local molecular clock models. We illustrate the method's utility on three example data sets involving mammal, primate and influenza evolution. Finally, we explore methods to visualize the complex posterior distribution that results from inference under such models. Conclusions The examples suggest that large sequence datasets may only require a small number of local molecular clocks to reconcile their branch lengths with a time scale. All of the analyses described here are implemented in the open access software package BEAST 1.5.4 (http://beast-mcmc.googlecode.com/). PMID:20807414

Plastid phylogenomics of the cool-season grass subfamily: clarification of relationships among early-diverging tribes.

PubMed

Saarela, Jeffery M; Wysocki, William P; Barrett, Craig F; Soreng, Robert J; Davis, Jerrold I; Clark, Lynn G; Kelchner, Scot A; Pires, J Chris; Edger, Patrick P; Mayfield, Dustin R; Duvall, Melvin R

2015-05-04

Whole plastid genomes are being sequenced rapidly from across the green plant tree of life, and phylogenetic analyses of these are increasing resolution and support for relationships that have varied among or been unresolved in earlier single- and multi-gene studies. Pooideae, the cool-season grass lineage, is the largest of the 12 grass subfamilies and includes important temperate cereals, turf grasses and forage species. Although numerous studies of the phylogeny of the subfamily have been undertaken, relationships among some 'early-diverging' tribes conflict among studies, and some relationships among subtribes of Poeae have not yet been resolved. To address these issues, we newly sequenced 25 whole plastomes, which showed rearrangements typical of Poaceae. These plastomes represent 9 tribes and 11 subtribes of Pooideae, and were analysed with 20 existing plastomes for the subfamily. Maximum likelihood (ML), maximum parsimony (MP) and Bayesian inference (BI) robustly resolve most deep relationships in the subfamily. Complete plastome data provide increased nodal support compared with protein-coding data alone at nodes that are not maximally supported. Following the divergence of Brachyelytrum, Phaenospermateae, Brylkinieae-Meliceae and Ampelodesmeae-Stipeae are the successive sister groups of the rest of the subfamily. Ampelodesmeae are nested within Stipeae in the plastome trees, consistent with its hybrid origin between a phaenospermatoid and a stipoid grass (the maternal parent). The core Pooideae are strongly supported and include Brachypodieae, a Bromeae-Triticeae clade and Poeae. Within Poeae, a novel sister group relationship between Phalaridinae and Torreyochloinae is found, and the relative branching order of this clade and Aveninae, with respect to an Agrostidinae-Brizinae clade, are discordant between MP and ML/BI trees. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses strongly support Airinae and Holcinae as the successive sister groups of a Dactylidinae-Loliinae clade. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Mitochondrial phylogenomics of Hemiptera reveals adaptive innovations driving the diversification of true bugs

PubMed Central

Li, Hu; Leavengood, John M.; Chapman, Eric G.; Burkhardt, Daniel; Song, Fan; Jiang, Pei; Liu, Jinpeng; Cai, Wanzhi

2017-01-01

Hemiptera, the largest non-holometabolous order of insects, represents approximately 7% of metazoan diversity. With extraordinary life histories and highly specialized morphological adaptations, hemipterans have exploited diverse habitats and food sources through approximately 300 Myr of evolution. To elucidate the phylogeny and evolutionary history of Hemiptera, we carried out the most comprehensive mitogenomics analysis on the richest taxon sampling to date covering all the suborders and infraorders, including 34 newly sequenced and 94 published mitogenomes. With optimized branch length and sequence heterogeneity, Bayesian analyses using a site-heterogeneous mixture model resolved the higher-level hemipteran phylogeny as (Sternorrhyncha, (Auchenorrhyncha, (Coleorrhyncha, Heteroptera))). Ancestral character state reconstruction and divergence time estimation suggest that the success of true bugs (Heteroptera) is probably due to angiosperm coevolution, but key adaptive innovations (e.g. prognathous mouthpart, predatory behaviour, and haemelytron) facilitated multiple independent shifts among diverse feeding habits and multiple independent colonizations of aquatic habitats. PMID:28878063

Pancrustacean phylogeny: hexapods are terrestrial crustaceans and maxillopods are not monophyletic

PubMed Central

Regier, Jerome C.; Shultz, Jeffrey W.; Kambic, Robert E.

2005-01-01

Recent molecular analyses indicate that crustaceans and hexapods form a clade (Pancrustacea or Tetraconata), but relationships among its constituent lineages, including monophyly of crustaceans, are controversial. Our phylogenetic analysis of three protein-coding nuclear genes from 62 arthropods and lobopods (Onychophora and Tardigrada) demonstrates that Hexapoda is most closely related to the crustaceans Branchiopoda (fairy shrimp, water fleas, etc.) and Cephalocarida+Remipedia, thereby making hexapods terrestrial crustaceans and the traditionally defined Crustacea paraphyletic. Additional findings are that Malacostraca (crabs, isopods, etc.) unites with Cirripedia (barnacles, etc.) and they, in turn, with Copepoda, making the traditional crustacean class Maxillopoda paraphyletic. Ostracoda (seed shrimp)—either all or a subgroup—is associated with Branchiura (fish lice) and likely to be basal to all other pancrustaceans. A Bayesian statistical (non-clock) estimate of divergence times suggests a Precambrian origin for Pancrustacea (600 Myr ago or more), which precedes the first unambiguous arthropod fossils by over 60 Myr. PMID:15734694

A Bayesian Alternative for Multi-objective Ecohydrological Model Specification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Y.; Marshall, L. A.; Sharma, A.; Ajami, H.

2015-12-01

Process-based ecohydrological models combine the study of hydrological, physical, biogeochemical and ecological processes of the catchments, which are usually more complex and parametric than conceptual hydrological models. Thus, appropriate calibration objectives and model uncertainty analysis are essential for ecohydrological modeling. In recent years, Bayesian inference has become one of the most popular tools for quantifying the uncertainties in hydrological modeling with the development of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Our study aims to develop appropriate prior distributions and likelihood functions that minimize the model uncertainties and bias within a Bayesian ecohydrological framework. In our study, a formal Bayesian approach is implemented in an ecohydrological model which combines a hydrological model (HyMOD) and a dynamic vegetation model (DVM). Simulations focused on one objective likelihood (Streamflow/LAI) and multi-objective likelihoods (Streamflow and LAI) with different weights are compared. Uniform, weakly informative and strongly informative prior distributions are used in different simulations. The Kullback-leibler divergence (KLD) is used to measure the dis(similarity) between different priors and corresponding posterior distributions to examine the parameter sensitivity. Results show that different prior distributions can strongly influence posterior distributions for parameters, especially when the available data is limited or parameters are insensitive to the available data. We demonstrate differences in optimized parameters and uncertainty limits in different cases based on multi-objective likelihoods vs. single objective likelihoods. We also demonstrate the importance of appropriately defining the weights of objectives in multi-objective calibration according to different data types.

A Bayesian network modeling approach to forecasting the 21st century worldwide status of polar bears

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amstrup, Steven C.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Douglas, David C.

To inform the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service decision, whether or not to list polar bears as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), we projected the status of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) for decades centered on future years 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2095. We defined four ecoregions based on current and projected sea ice conditions: seasonal ice, Canadian Archipelago, polar basin divergent, and polar basin convergent ecoregions. We incorporated general circulation model projections of future sea ice into a Bayesian network (BN) model structured around the factors considered in ESA decisions. This first-generation BN model combined empirical data, interpretations of data, and professional judgments of one polar bear expert into a probabilistic framework that identifies causal links between environmental stressors and polar bear responses. We provide guidance regarding steps necessary to refine the model, including adding inputs from other experts. The BN model projected extirpation of polar bears from the seasonal ice and polar basin divergent ecoregions, where ≈2/3 of the world's polar bears currently occur, by mid century. Projections were less dire in other ecoregions. Decline in ice habitat was the overriding factor driving the model outcomes. Although this is a first-generation model, the dependence of polar bears on sea ice is universally accepted, and the observed sea ice decline is faster than models suggest. Therefore, incorporating judgments of multiple experts in a final model is not expected to fundamentally alter the outlook for polar bears described here.

Genetic divergence among Psidium accessions based on single nucleotide polymorphisms developed for Eucalyptus.

PubMed

Costa, S R; Santos, C A F

2017-05-04

The goal of this study was to analyze the genetic divergence among Psidium species accessions based on SNPs developed for Eucalyptus. Fifty-three Psidium accessions, including 47 P. guajava, were genotyped with EUCHIP60K. The dendrogram similarity ranged from 0.58 to 1.00, with a cophenetic value of 0.97. Five groups were identified at dendrogram cut point of 0.7: the first with 44 guava accessions, the second with 1 guava accession, the third with 3 P. guineense accessions, the forth with 2 guava accessions, and the fifth with 3 P. cattleianum accessions. The Bayesian analyses suggested seven subpopulations, with formation of two additional groups with guava accessions. Primers designed with Eucalyptus SNP sequences resulted in reliable Psidium amplicons on 6% polyacrylamide gels. In general, the SNP dendrogram agreed with biological genus structure, since different species were not grouped, indicating that transferability among Myrtaceae genus was possible and reliable.

Cladistic analysis of Bantu languages: a new tree based on combined lexical and grammatical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rexová, Kateřina; Bastin, Yvonne; Frynta, Daniel

2006-04-01

The phylogeny of the Bantu languages is reconstructed by application of the cladistic methodology to the combined lexical and grammatical data (87 languages, 144 characters). A maximum parsimony tree and Bayesian analysis supported some previously recognized clades, e.g., that of eastern and southern Bantu languages. Moreover, the results revealed that Bantu languages south and east of the equatorial forest are probably monophyletic. It suggests an unorthodox scenario of Bantu expansion including (after initial radiation in their homelands and neighboring territories) just a single passage through rainforest areas followed by a subsequent divergence into major clades. The likely localization of this divergence is in the area west of the Great Lakes. It conforms to the view that demographic expansion and dispersal throughout the dry-forests and savanna regions of subequatorial Africa was associated with the acquisition of new technologies (iron metallurgy and grain cultivation).

A reinvestigation of phylogeny and divergence times of the Ablepharus kitaibelii species complex (Sauria, Scincidae) based on mtDNA and nuDNA genes.

PubMed

Skourtanioti, Eirini; Kapli, Paschalia; Ilgaz, Çetin; Kumlutaş, Yusuf; Avcı, Aziz; Ahmadzadeh, Faraham; Crnobrnja-Isailović, Jelka; Gherghel, Iulian; Lymberakis, Petros; Poulakakis, Nikos

2016-10-01

Morphological and DNA data support that the East Mediterranean snake-eyed skink Ablepharus kitaibelii represents a species complex that includes four species A. kitaibelii, A. budaki, A. chernovi, and A. rueppellii, highlighting the need of its taxonomic reevaluation. Here, we used Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood methods to estimate the phylogenetic relationships of all members of the complex based on two mitochondrial (cyt b, 16S rRNA) and two nuclear markers (MC1R, and NKTR) and using Chalcides, Eumeces, and Eutropis as outgroups. The biogeographic history of the complex was also investigated through the application of several phylogeographic (BEAST) and biogeographic (BBM) analyses. Paleogeographic and paleoclimatic data were used to support the inferred phylogeographic patterns. The A. kitaibelli species complex exhibits high genetic diversity, revealing cases of hidden diversity and cases of non-monophyletic species such as A. kitaibelii and A. budaki. Our results indicate that A. pannonicus branches off first and a group that comprises specimens of A. kitaibelli and A. budaki from Kastelorizo Island group (southeast Greece) and southwest Turkey, respectively is differentiated from the rest A. kitaibelli and A. budaki populations and may represent a new species. The estimated divergence times place the origin of the complex in the Middle Miocene (∼16Mya) and the divergence of most currently recognized species in the Late Miocene. The inferred ancestral distribution suggests that the complex originated in Anatolia, supposing that several vicariance and dispersal events that are related with the formation of the Mid-Aegean Trench, the Anatolian Diagonal and the orogenesis of the mountain chains in southern and eastern Anatolia have led to current distribution pattern of A. kitaibelii species complex in the Balkans and Middle East. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multilocus Phylogeny of the Afrotropical Freshwater Crab Fauna Reveals Historical Drainage Connectivity and Transoceanic Dispersal Since the Eocene.

PubMed

Daniels, Savel R; Phiri, Ethel E; Klaus, Sebastian; Albrecht, Christian; Cumberlidge, Neil

2015-07-01

Phylogenetic reconstruction, divergence time estimations and ancestral range estimation were undertaken for 66% of the Afrotropical freshwater crab fauna (Potamonautidae) based on four partial DNA loci (12S rRNA, 16S rRNA, cytochrome oxidase one [COI], and histone 3). The present study represents the most comprehensive taxonomic sampling of any freshwater crab family globally, and explores the impact of paleodrainage interconnectivity on cladogenesis among freshwater crabs. Phylogenetic analyses of the total evidence data using maximum-likelihood (ML), maximum parsimony (MP), and Bayesian inference (BI) produced a robust statistically well-supported tree topology that reaffirmed the monophyly of the Afrotropical freshwater crab fauna. The estimated divergence times suggest that the Afrotropical Potamonautidae diverged during the Eocene. Cladogenesis within and among several genera occurred predominantly during the Miocene, which was associated with major tectonic and climatic ameliorations throughout the region. Paleodrainage connectivity was observed with specimens from the Nilo-Sudan and East African coast proving to be sister to specimens from the Upper Guinea Forests in West Africa. In addition, we observed strong sister taxon affinity between specimens from East Africa and the Congo basin, including specimens from Lake Tanganyika, while the southern African fauna was retrieved as sister to the Angolan taxa. Within the East African clade we observed two independent transoceanic dispersal events, one to the Seychelles Archipelago and a second to Madagascar, while we observe a single transoceanic dispersal event from West Africa to São Tomé. The ancestral area estimation suggested a West African/East African ancestral range for the family with multiple dispersal events between southern Africa and East Africa, and between East Africa and Central Africa The taxonomic implications of our results are discussed in light of the widespread paraphyly evident among a number of genera. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Evolution of exceptional species richness among lineages of fleshy-fruited Myrtaceae

PubMed Central

Biffin, Ed; Lucas, Eve J.; Craven, Lyn A.; Ribeiro da Costa, Itayguara; Harrington, Mark G.; Crisp, Michael D.

2010-01-01

Background and Aims The angiosperm family Myrtaceae comprises 17 tribes with more than half of the estimated 5500 species being referred to the fleshy-fruited and predominantly rainforest associated Syzygieae and Myrteae. Previous studies suggest that fleshy fruits have evolved separately in these lineages, whereas generally shifts in fruit morphology have been variously implicated in diversification rate shifts among angiosperms. A phylogenetic hypothesis and estimate divergence times for Myrtaceae is developed as a basis to explore the evidence for, and drivers of, elevated diversification rates among the fleshy-fruited tribes of Myrtaceae. Methods Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of plastid and nuclear DNA sequences were used to estimate intertribal relationships and lineage divergence times in Myrtaceae. Focusing on the fleshy-fruited tribes, a variety of statistical approaches were used to assess diversification rates and diversification rate shifts across the family. Key Results Analyses of the sequence data provide a strongly supported phylogenetic hypothesis for Myrtaceae. Relative to previous studies, substantially younger ages for many of the clades are reported, and it is argued that the use of flexible calibrations to incorporate fossil data provides more realistic divergence estimates than the use of errorless point calibrations. It is found that Syzygieae and Myrteae have experienced elevated diversification rates relative to other lineages of Myrtaceae. Positive shifts in diversification rate have occurred separately in each lineage, associated with a shift from dry to fleshy fruit. Conclusions Fleshy fruits have evolved independently in Syzygieae and Myrteae, and this is accompanied by exceptional diversification rate shifts in both instances, suggesting that the evolution of fleshy fruits is a key innovation for rainforest Myrtaceae. Noting the scale dependency of this hypothesis, more complex explanations may be required to explain diversification rate shifts occurring within the fleshy-fruited tribes, and the suggested phylogenetic hypothesis provides an appropriate framework for this undertaking. PMID:20462850

Efficient Mean Field Variational Algorithm for Data Assimilation (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vrettas, M. D.; Cornford, D.; Opper, M.

2013-12-01

Data assimilation algorithms combine available observations of physical systems with the assumed model dynamics in a systematic manner, to produce better estimates of initial conditions for prediction. Broadly they can be categorized in three main approaches: (a) sequential algorithms, (b) sampling methods and (c) variational algorithms which transform the density estimation problem to an optimization problem. However, given finite computational resources, only a handful of ensemble Kalman filters and 4DVar algorithms have been applied operationally to very high dimensional geophysical applications, such as weather forecasting. In this paper we present a recent extension to our variational Bayesian algorithm which seeks the ';optimal' posterior distribution over the continuous time states, within a family of non-stationary Gaussian processes. Our initial work on variational Bayesian approaches to data assimilation, unlike the well-known 4DVar method which seeks only the most probable solution, computes the best time varying Gaussian process approximation to the posterior smoothing distribution for dynamical systems that can be represented by stochastic differential equations. This approach was based on minimising the Kullback-Leibler divergence, over paths, between the true posterior and our Gaussian process approximation. Whilst the observations were informative enough to keep the posterior smoothing density close to Gaussian the algorithm proved very effective on low dimensional systems (e.g. O(10)D). However for higher dimensional systems, the high computational demands make the algorithm prohibitively expensive. To overcome the difficulties presented in the original framework and make our approach more efficient in higher dimensional systems we have been developing a new mean field version of the algorithm which treats the state variables at any given time as being independent in the posterior approximation, while still accounting for their relationships in the mean solution arising from the original system dynamics. Here we present this new mean field approach, illustrating its performance on a range of benchmark data assimilation problems whose dimensionality varies from O(10) to O(10^3)D. We emphasise that the variational Bayesian approach we adopt, unlike other variational approaches, provides a natural bound on the marginal likelihood of the observations given the model parameters which also allows for inference of (hyper-) parameters such as observational errors, parameters in the dynamical model and model error representation. We also stress that since our approach is intrinsically parallel it can be implemented very efficiently to address very long data assimilation time windows. Moreover, like most traditional variational approaches our Bayesian variational method has the benefit of being posed as an optimisation problem therefore its complexity can be tuned to the available computational resources. We finish with a sketch of possible future directions.

Distinct subspecies or phenotypic plasticity? Genetic and morphological differentiation of mountain honey bees in East Africa

PubMed Central

Gruber, Karl; Schöning, Caspar; Otte, Marianne; Kinuthia, Wanja; Hasselmann, Martin

2013-01-01

Identifying the forces shaping intraspecific phenotypic and genotypic divergence are of key importance in evolutionary biology. Phenotypic divergence may result from local adaptation or, especially in species with strong gene flow, from pronounced phenotypic plasticity. Here, we examine morphological and genetic divergence among populations of the western honey bee Apis mellifera in the topographically heterogeneous East African region. The currently accepted “mountain refugia hypothesis” states that populations living in disjunct montane forests belong to a different lineage than those in savanna habitats surrounding these forests. We obtained microsatellite data, mitochondrial sequences, and morphometric data from worker honey bees collected from feral colonies in three montane forests and corresponding neighboring savanna regions in Kenya. Honey bee colonies from montane forests showed distinct worker morphology compared with colonies in savanna areas. Mitochondrial sequence data did not support the existence of the two currently accepted subspecies. Furthermore, analyses of the microsatellite data with a Bayesian clustering method did not support the existence of two source populations as it would be expected under the mountain refugia scenario. Our findings suggest that phenotypic plasticity rather than distinct ancestry is the leading cause behind the phenotypic divergence observed between montane forest and savanna honey bees. Our study thus corroborates the idea that high gene flow may select for increased plasticity. PMID:24223262

Phylogeographic patterns of the desert poplar in Northwest China shaped by both geology and climatic oscillations.

PubMed

Zeng, Yan-Fei; Zhang, Jian-Guo; Abuduhamiti, Bawerjan; Wang, Wen-Ting; Jia, Zhi-Qing

2018-05-25

The effects of historical geology and climatic events on the evolution of plants around the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region have been at the center of debate for years. To identify the influence of the uplift of the Tianshan Mountains and/or climatic oscillations on the evolution of plants in arid northwest China, we investigated the phylogeography of the Euphrates poplar (Populus euphratica) using chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) sequences and nuclear microsatellites, and estimated its historical distribution using Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM). We found that the Euphrates poplar differed from another desert poplar, P. pruinosa, in both nuclear and chloroplast DNA. The low clonal diversity in both populations reflected the low regeneration rate by seed/seedlings in many locations. Both cpDNA and nuclear markers demonstrated a clear divergence between the Euphrates poplar populations from northern and southern Xinjiang regions. The divergence time was estimated to be early Pleistocene based on cpDNA, and late Pleistocene using an Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis based on microsatellites. Estimated gene flow was low between these two regions, and the limited gene flow occurred mainly via dispersal from eastern regions. ENM analysis supported a wider distribution of the Euphrates poplar at 3 Ma, but a more constricted distribution during both the glacial period and the interglacial period. These results indicate that the deformation of the Tianshan Mountains has impeded gene flow of the Euphrates poplar populations from northern and southern Xinjiang, and the distribution constriction due to climatic oscillations further accelerated the divergence of populations from these regions. To protect the desert poplars, more effort is needed to encourage seed germination and seedling establishment, and to conserve endemic gene resources in the northern Xinjiang region.

Digest: Demographic inferences accounting for selection at linked sites†.

PubMed

Simon, Alexis; Duranton, Maud

2018-05-16

Complex demography and selection at linked sites can generate spurious signatures of divergent selection. Unfortunately, many attempts at demographic inference consider overly simple models and neglect the effect of selection at linked sites. In this issue, Rougemont and Bernatchez (2018) applied an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework that accounts for indirect selection to reveal a complex history of secondary contacts in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) that might explain a high rate of latitudinal clines in this species. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

DNA Barcode Analysis of Thrips (Thysanoptera) Diversity in Pakistan Reveals Cryptic Species Complexes.

PubMed

Iftikhar, Romana; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Rasool, Akhtar; Hebert, Paul D N

2016-01-01

Although thrips are globally important crop pests and vectors of viral disease, species identifications are difficult because of their small size and inconspicuous morphological differences. Sequence variation in the mitochondrial COI-5' (DNA barcode) region has proven effective for the identification of species in many groups of insect pests. We analyzed barcode sequence variation among 471 thrips from various plant hosts in north-central Pakistan. The Barcode Index Number (BIN) system assigned these sequences to 55 BINs, while the Automatic Barcode Gap Discovery detected 56 partitions, a count that coincided with the number of monophyletic lineages recognized by Neighbor-Joining analysis and Bayesian inference. Congeneric species showed an average of 19% sequence divergence (range = 5.6% - 27%) at COI, while intraspecific distances averaged 0.6% (range = 0.0% - 7.6%). BIN analysis suggested that all intraspecific divergence >3.0% actually involved a species complex. In fact, sequences for three major pest species (Haplothrips reuteri, Thrips palmi, Thrips tabaci), and one predatory thrips (Aeolothrips intermedius) showed deep intraspecific divergences, providing evidence that each is a cryptic species complex. The study compiles the first barcode reference library for the thrips of Pakistan, and examines global haplotype diversity in four important pest thrips.

Inter- and intra-specific genetic divergence of Asian tiger frogs (genus Hoplobatrachus), with special reference to the population structure of H. tigerinus in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Sultana, Nasrin; Igawa, Takeshi; Islam, Mohammed Mafizul; Hasan, Mahmudul; Alam, Mohammad Shafiqul; Komaki, Shohei; Kawamura, Kensuke; Khan, Md Mukhlesur Rahman; Sumida, Masayuki

2017-03-17

The five frog species of the genus Hoplobatrachus are widely distributed in Asia and Africa, with Asia being considered the genus' origin. However, the evolutionary relationships of Asian Hoplobatrachus species remain ambiguous. Additionally, genetic diversity and fundamental differentiation processes within species have not been studied. We conducted molecular phylogenetic analysis on Asian Hoplobatrachus frogs and population genetic analysis on H. tigerinus in Bangladesh using the mitochondrial CYTB gene and 21 microsatellite markers. The resultant phylogenetic tree revealed monophyly in each species, notwithstanding the involvement of cryptic species in H. chinensis and H. tigerinus, which are evident from the higher genetic divergence between populations. Bayesian inference of population structure revealed genetic divergence between western and eastern H. tigerinus populations in Bangladesh, suggesting restricted gene flow caused by barriers posed by major rivers. However, genetic distances among populations were generally low. A discrete population is located in the low riverine delta region, which likely reflects long-distance dispersal. These results strongly suggest that the environment specific to this river system has maintained the population structure of H. tigerinus in this region.

Genetic divergence in nuclear genomes between populations of Fagus crenata along the Japan Sea and Pacific sides of Japan.

PubMed

Hiraoka, Koichi; Tomaru, Nobuhiro

2009-05-01

Genetic diversity and structure in Fagus crenata were studied by analyzing 14 nuclear microsatellite loci in 23 populations distributed throughout the species' range. Although population differentiation was very low (F (ST) = 0.027; R (ST) = 0.041), both neighbor-joining tree and Bayesian clustering analyses provided clear evidence of genetic divergence between populations along the Japan Sea (Japan Sea lineage) and Pacific (Pacific lineage) sides of Japan, indicating that physical barriers to migration and gene flow, notably the mountain ranges separating the populations along the Japan Sea and Pacific sides, have promoted genetic divergence between these populations. The two lineages of the nuclear genome are generally consistent with those of the chloroplast genome detected in a previous study, with several discrepancies between the two genomes. Within-population genetic diversity was generally very high (average H (E) = 0.839), but decreased in a clinal fashion from southwest to northeast, largely among populations of the Japan Sea lineage. This geographical gradient may have resulted from the late-glacial and postglacial recolonization to the northeast, which led to a loss of within-population genetic diversity due to cumulative founder effects.

Phylogenetic analysis of the Pacific cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki ssp.: Salmonidae) based on partial mtDNA ND4 sequences: a closer look at the highly fragmented inland species.

PubMed

Wilson, Wade D; Turner, Thomas F

2009-08-01

The genus Oncorhynchus includes Pacific salmon and trout (anadromous and land-locked) species of the western United States and Mexico. All species and subspecies in this group are threatened, endangered, sensitive, or species of conservation concern in portions of their native ranges. To examine the relationships of the species within Oncorhynchus we sequenced a 768 bp fragment of the protein-encoding ND4 mtDNA region. We included all six recognized subspecies of O. clarki (cutthroat trout), O. gilaegilae (Gila trout) and O. g. apache (Apache trout). Gene trees from likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses revealed that Salvelinus was the sister group to Oncorhynchus, and as expected based on previous studies, O. clarki was sister to a clade that consisted of O. mykiss plus O. g. gilae and O. g. apache. Within the cutthroat clade (O. clarki), the coastal form O. c. clarki was basal with the Rio Grande cutthroat (O. c. virginalis) most derived. Divergence dating based on a fossil calibration molecular clock showed the oldest clade (mean node age) was O. masou ssp., which diverged roughly 7.6 MYA. Highest probability density intervals for divergence of O. masou overlapped with divergence (6.3 MYA) of Pacific salmon clades ((O. gorbuscha + O. nerka) and (O. tshawytscha + O. kisutch)). The Pacific trout clade ((O. mykiss + O. gilae ssp.) + (O. clarki ssp.)) diverged from the Pacific salmon around 6.3 MYA, with most of the diversification within the O. clarki clade occurring in the last 1 MY.

Ecological divergence and evolutionary transition of resprouting types in Banksia attenuata.

PubMed

He, Tianhua

2014-08-01

Resprouting is a key functional trait that allows plants to survive diverse disturbances. The fitness benefits associated with resprouting include a rapid return to adult growth, early flowering, and setting seed. The resprouting responses observed following fire are varied, as are the ecological outcomes. Understanding the ecological divergence and evolutionary pathways of different resprouting types and how the environment and genetics interact to drive such morphological evolution represents an important, but under-studied, topic. In the present study, microsatellite markers and microevolutionary approaches were used to better understand: (1) whether genetic differentiation is related to morphological divergence among resprouting types and if so, whether there are any specific genetic variations associated with morphological divergence and (2) the evolutionary pathway of the transitions between two resprouting types in Banksia attenuata (epicormic resprouting from aerial stems or branch; resprouting from a underground lignotuber). The results revealed an association between population genetic differentiation and the morphological divergence of postfire resprouting types in B. attenuata. A microsatellite allele has been shown to be associated with epicormic populations. Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis revealed a likely evolutionary transition from epicormic to lignotuberous resprouting in B. attenuata. It is concluded that the postfire resprouting type in B. attenuata is likely determined by the fire's characteristics. The differentiated expression of postfire resprouting types in different environments is likely a consequence of local genetic adaptation. The capacity to shift the postfire resprouting type to adapt to diverse fire regimes is most likely the key factor explaining why B. attenuata is the most widespread member of the Banksia genus.

Bayesian Inference for Time Trends in Parameter Values using Weighted Evidence Sets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

D. L. Kelly; A. Malkhasyan

2010-09-01

There is a nearly ubiquitous assumption in PSA that parameter values are at least piecewise-constant in time. As a result, Bayesian inference tends to incorporate many years of plant operation, over which there have been significant changes in plant operational and maintenance practices, plant management, etc. These changes can cause significant changes in parameter values over time; however, failure to perform Bayesian inference in the proper time-dependent framework can mask these changes. Failure to question the assumption of constant parameter values, and failure to perform Bayesian inference in the proper time-dependent framework were noted as important issues in NUREG/CR-6813, performedmore » for the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards in 2003. That report noted that “in-dustry lacks tools to perform time-trend analysis with Bayesian updating.” This paper describes an applica-tion of time-dependent Bayesian inference methods developed for the European Commission Ageing PSA Network. These methods utilize open-source software, implementing Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The paper also illustrates an approach to incorporating multiple sources of data via applicability weighting factors that address differences in key influences, such as vendor, component boundaries, conditions of the operating environment, etc.« less

Bayesian Inference for Time Trends in Parameter Values: Case Study for the Ageing PSA Network of the European Commission

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dana L. Kelly; Albert Malkhasyan

2010-06-01

There is a nearly ubiquitous assumption in PSA that parameter values are at least piecewise-constant in time. As a result, Bayesian inference tends to incorporate many years of plant operation, over which there have been significant changes in plant operational and maintenance practices, plant management, etc. These changes can cause significant changes in parameter values over time; however, failure to perform Bayesian inference in the proper time-dependent framework can mask these changes. Failure to question the assumption of constant parameter values, and failure to perform Bayesian inference in the proper time-dependent framework were noted as important issues in NUREG/CR-6813, performedmore » for the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards in 2003. That report noted that “industry lacks tools to perform time-trend analysis with Bayesian updating.” This paper describes an application of time-dependent Bayesian inference methods developed for the European Commission Ageing PSA Network. These methods utilize open-source software, implementing Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The paper also illustrates the development of a generic prior distribution, which incorporates multiple sources of generic data via weighting factors that address differences in key influences, such as vendor, component boundaries, conditions of the operating environment, etc.« less

A 3D model retrieval approach based on Bayesian networks lightfield descriptor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Qinhan; Li, Yanjun

2009-12-01

A new 3D model retrieval methodology is proposed by exploiting a novel Bayesian networks lightfield descriptor (BNLD). There are two key novelties in our approach: (1) a BN-based method for building lightfield descriptor; and (2) a 3D model retrieval scheme based on the proposed BNLD. To overcome the disadvantages of the existing 3D model retrieval methods, we explore BN for building a new lightfield descriptor. Firstly, 3D model is put into lightfield, about 300 binary-views can be obtained along a sphere, then Fourier descriptors and Zernike moments descriptors can be calculated out from binaryviews. Then shape feature sequence would be learned into a BN model based on BN learning algorithm; Secondly, we propose a new 3D model retrieval method by calculating Kullback-Leibler Divergence (KLD) between BNLDs. Beneficial from the statistical learning, our BNLD is noise robustness as compared to the existing methods. The comparison between our method and the lightfield descriptor-based approach is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methodology.

A three-stage colonization model for the peopling of the Americas.

PubMed

Kitchen, Andrew; Miyamoto, Michael M; Mulligan, Connie J

2008-02-13

We evaluate the process by which the Americas were originally colonized and propose a three-stage model that integrates current genetic, archaeological, geological, and paleoecological data. Specifically, we analyze mitochondrial and nuclear genetic data by using complementary coalescent models of demographic history and incorporating non-genetic data to enhance the anthropological relevance of the analysis. Bayesian skyline plots, which provide dynamic representations of population size changes over time, indicate that Amerinds went through two stages of growth approximately 40,000 and approximately 15,000 years ago separated by a long period of population stability. Isolation-with-migration coalescent analyses, which utilize data from sister populations to estimate a divergence date and founder population sizes, suggest an Amerind population expansion starting approximately 15,000 years ago. These results support a model for the peopling of the New World in which Amerind ancestors diverged from the Asian gene pool prior to 40,000 years ago and experienced a gradual population expansion as they moved into Beringia. After a long period of little change in population size in greater Beringia, Amerinds rapidly expanded into the Americas approximately 15,000 years ago either through an interior ice-free corridor or along the coast. This rapid colonization of the New World was achieved by a founder group with an effective population size of approximately 1,000-5,400 individuals. Our model presents a detailed scenario for the timing and scale of the initial migration to the Americas, substantially refines the estimate of New World founders, and provides a unified theory for testing with future datasets and analytic methods.

Testing for Divergent Transmission Histories among Cultural Characters: A Study Using Bayesian Phylogenetic Methods and Iranian Tribal Textile Data

PubMed Central

Matthews, Luke J.; Tehrani, Jamie J.; Jordan, Fiona M.; Collard, Mark; Nunn, Charles L.

2011-01-01

Background Archaeologists and anthropologists have long recognized that different cultural complexes may have distinct descent histories, but they have lacked analytical techniques capable of easily identifying such incongruence. Here, we show how Bayesian phylogenetic analysis can be used to identify incongruent cultural histories. We employ the approach to investigate Iranian tribal textile traditions. Methods We used Bayes factor comparisons in a phylogenetic framework to test two models of cultural evolution: the hierarchically integrated system hypothesis and the multiple coherent units hypothesis. In the hierarchically integrated system hypothesis, a core tradition of characters evolves through descent with modification and characters peripheral to the core are exchanged among contemporaneous populations. In the multiple coherent units hypothesis, a core tradition does not exist. Rather, there are several cultural units consisting of sets of characters that have different histories of descent. Results For the Iranian textiles, the Bayesian phylogenetic analyses supported the multiple coherent units hypothesis over the hierarchically integrated system hypothesis. Our analyses suggest that pile-weave designs represent a distinct cultural unit that has a different phylogenetic history compared to other textile characters. Conclusions The results from the Iranian textiles are consistent with the available ethnographic evidence, which suggests that the commercial rug market has influenced pile-rug designs but not the techniques or designs incorporated in the other textiles produced by the tribes. We anticipate that Bayesian phylogenetic tests for inferring cultural units will be of great value for researchers interested in studying the evolution of cultural traits including language, behavior, and material culture. PMID:21559083

Divergent evolutionary processes associated with colonization of offshore islands.

PubMed

Martínková, Natália; Barnett, Ross; Cucchi, Thomas; Struchen, Rahel; Pascal, Marine; Pascal, Michel; Fischer, Martin C; Higham, Thomas; Brace, Selina; Ho, Simon Y W; Quéré, Jean-Pierre; O'Higgins, Paul; Excoffier, Laurent; Heckel, Gerald; Hoelzel, A Rus; Dobney, Keith M; Searle, Jeremy B

2013-10-01

Oceanic islands have been a test ground for evolutionary theory, but here, we focus on the possibilities for evolutionary study created by offshore islands. These can be colonized through various means and by a wide range of species, including those with low dispersal capabilities. We use morphology, modern and ancient sequences of cytochrome b (cytb) and microsatellite genotypes to examine colonization history and evolutionary change associated with occupation of the Orkney archipelago by the common vole (Microtus arvalis), a species found in continental Europe but not in Britain. Among possible colonization scenarios, our results are most consistent with human introduction at least 5100 bp (confirmed by radiocarbon dating). We used approximate Bayesian computation of population history to infer the coast of Belgium as the possible source and estimated the evolutionary timescale using a Bayesian coalescent approach. We showed substantial morphological divergence of the island populations, including a size increase presumably driven by selection and reduced microsatellite variation likely reflecting founder events and genetic drift. More surprisingly, our results suggest that a recent and widespread cytb replacement event in the continental source area purged cytb variation there, whereas the ancestral diversity is largely retained in the colonized islands as a genetic 'ark'. The replacement event in the continental M. arvalis was probably triggered by anthropogenic causes (land-use change). Our studies illustrate that small offshore islands can act as field laboratories for studying various evolutionary processes over relatively short timescales, informing about the mainland source area as well as the island. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Phylogeographic reconstruction of African yellow fever virus isolates indicates recent simultaneous dispersal into east and west Africa.

PubMed

Beck, Andrew; Guzman, Hilda; Li, Li; Ellis, Brett; Tesh, Robert B; Barrett, Alan D T

2013-01-01

Yellow fever virus (YFV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that is a major public health problem in tropical areas of Africa and South America. There have been detailed studies on YFV ecology in West Africa and South America, but current understanding of YFV circulation on the African continent is incomplete. This inadequacy is especially notable for East and Central Africa, for which the unpredictability of human outbreaks is compounded by limitations in both historical and present surveillance efforts. Sparse availability of nucleotide sequence data makes it difficult to investigate the dispersal of YFV in these regions of the continent. To remedy this, we constructed Bayesian phylogenetic and geographic analyses utilizing 49 partial genomic sequences to infer the structure of YFV divergence across the known range of the virus on the African continent. Relaxed clock analysis demonstrated evidence for simultaneous divergence of YFV into east and west lineages, a finding that differs from previous hypotheses of YFV dispersal from reservoirs located on edges of the endemic range. Using discrete and continuous geographic diffusion models, we provide detailed structure of YFV lineage diversity. Significant transition links between extant East and West African lineages are presented, implying connection between areas of known sylvatic cycling. The results of demographic modeling reinforce the existence of a stably maintained population of YFV with spillover events into human populations occurring periodically. Geographically distinct foci of circulation are reconstructed, which have significant implications for studies of YFV ecology and emergence of human disease. We propose further incorporation of Bayesian phylogeography into formal GIS analyses to augment studies of arboviral disease.

Spatio-Temporal History of HIV-1 CRF35_AD in Afghanistan and Iran.

PubMed

Eybpoosh, Sana; Bahrampour, Abbas; Karamouzian, Mohammad; Azadmanesh, Kayhan; Jahanbakhsh, Fatemeh; Mostafavi, Ehsan; Zolala, Farzaneh; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar

2016-01-01

HIV-1 Circulating Recombinant Form 35_AD (CRF35_AD) has an important position in the epidemiological profile of Afghanistan and Iran. Despite the presence of this clade in Afghanistan and Iran for over a decade, our understanding of its origin and dissemination patterns is limited. In this study, we performed a Bayesian phylogeographic analysis to reconstruct the spatio-temporal dispersion pattern of this clade using eligible CRF35_AD gag and pol sequences available in the Los Alamos HIV database (432 sequences available from Iran, 16 sequences available from Afghanistan, and a single CRF35_AD-like pol sequence available from USA). Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm was implemented in BEAST v1.8.1. Between-country dispersion rates were tested with Bayesian stochastic search variable selection method and were considered significant where Bayes factor values were greater than three. The findings suggested that CRF35_AD sequences were genetically similar to parental sequences from Kenya and Uganda, and to a set of subtype A1 sequences available from Afghan refugees living in Pakistan. Our results also showed that across all phylogenies, Afghan and Iranian CRF35_AD sequences formed a monophyletic cluster (posterior clade credibility> 0.7). The divergence date of this cluster was estimated to be between 1990 and 1992. Within this cluster, a bidirectional dispersion of the virus was observed across Afghanistan and Iran. We could not clearly identify if Afghanistan or Iran first established or received this epidemic, as the root location of this cluster could not be robustly estimated. Three CRF35_AD sequences from Afghan refugees living in Pakistan nested among Afghan and Iranian CRF35_AD branches. However, the CRF35_AD-like sequence available from USA diverged independently from Kenyan subtype A1 sequences, suggesting it not to be a true CRF35_AD lineage. Potential factors contributing to viral exchange between Afghanistan and Iran could be injection drug networks and mass migration of Afghan refugees and labours to Iran, which calls for extensive preventive efforts.

Spatio-Temporal History of HIV-1 CRF35_AD in Afghanistan and Iran

PubMed Central

Eybpoosh, Sana; Bahrampour, Abbas; Karamouzian, Mohammad; Azadmanesh, Kayhan; Jahanbakhsh, Fatemeh; Mostafavi, Ehsan; Zolala, Farzaneh; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar

2016-01-01

HIV-1 Circulating Recombinant Form 35_AD (CRF35_AD) has an important position in the epidemiological profile of Afghanistan and Iran. Despite the presence of this clade in Afghanistan and Iran for over a decade, our understanding of its origin and dissemination patterns is limited. In this study, we performed a Bayesian phylogeographic analysis to reconstruct the spatio-temporal dispersion pattern of this clade using eligible CRF35_AD gag and pol sequences available in the Los Alamos HIV database (432 sequences available from Iran, 16 sequences available from Afghanistan, and a single CRF35_AD-like pol sequence available from USA). Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm was implemented in BEAST v1.8.1. Between-country dispersion rates were tested with Bayesian stochastic search variable selection method and were considered significant where Bayes factor values were greater than three. The findings suggested that CRF35_AD sequences were genetically similar to parental sequences from Kenya and Uganda, and to a set of subtype A1 sequences available from Afghan refugees living in Pakistan. Our results also showed that across all phylogenies, Afghan and Iranian CRF35_AD sequences formed a monophyletic cluster (posterior clade credibility> 0.7). The divergence date of this cluster was estimated to be between 1990 and 1992. Within this cluster, a bidirectional dispersion of the virus was observed across Afghanistan and Iran. We could not clearly identify if Afghanistan or Iran first established or received this epidemic, as the root location of this cluster could not be robustly estimated. Three CRF35_AD sequences from Afghan refugees living in Pakistan nested among Afghan and Iranian CRF35_AD branches. However, the CRF35_AD-like sequence available from USA diverged independently from Kenyan subtype A1 sequences, suggesting it not to be a true CRF35_AD lineage. Potential factors contributing to viral exchange between Afghanistan and Iran could be injection drug networks and mass migration of Afghan refugees and labours to Iran, which calls for extensive preventive efforts. PMID:27280293

Treating fossils as terminal taxa in divergence time estimation reveals ancient vicariance patterns in the palpimanoid spiders.

PubMed

Wood, Hannah Marie; Matzke, Nicholas J; Gillespie, Rosemary G; Griswold, Charles E

2013-03-01

Incorporation of fossils into biogeographic studies can have a profound effect on the conclusions that result, particularly when fossil ranges are nonoverlapping with extant ranges. This is the case in archaeid spiders, where there are known fossils from the Northern Hemisphere, yet all living members are restricted to the Southern Hemisphere. To better understand the biogeographic patterns of archaeid spiders and their palpimanoid relatives, we estimate a dated phylogeny using a relaxed clock on a combined molecular and morphological data set. Dating information is compared with treating the archaeid fossil taxa as both node calibrations and as noncontemporaneous terminal tips, both with and without additional calibration points. Estimation of ancestral biogeographic ranges is then performed, using likelihood and Bayesian methods to take into account uncertainty in phylogeny and in dating. We find that treating the fossils as terminal tips within a Bayesian framework, as opposed to dating the phylogeny based only on molecular data with the dates coming from node calibrations, removes the subjectivity involved in assigning priors, which has not been possible with previous methods. Our analyses suggest that the diversification of the northern and southern archaeid lineages was congruent with the breakup of Pangaea into Laurasia and Gondwanaland. This analysis provides a rare example, and perhaps the most strongly supported, where a dated phylogeny confirms a biogeographical hypothesis based on vicariance due to the breakup of the ancient continental plates.

In situ genetic differentiation in a Hispaniolan lizard (Ameiva chrysolaema): a multilocus perspective.

PubMed

Gifford, Matthew E; Larson, Allan

2008-10-01

A previous phylogeographic study of mitochondrial haplotypes for the Hispaniolan lizard Ameiva chrysolaema revealed deep genetic structure associated with seawater inundation during the late Pliocene/early Pleistocene and evidence of subsequent population expansion into formerly inundated areas. We revisit hypotheses generated by our previous study using increased geographic sampling of populations and analysis of three nuclear markers (alpha-enolase intron 8, alpha-cardiac-actin intron 4, and beta-actin intron 3) in addition to mitochondrial haplotypes (ND2). Large genetic discontinuities correspond spatially and temporally with historical barriers to gene flow (sea inundations). NCPA cross-validation analysis and Bayesian multilocus analyses of divergence times (IMa and MCMCcoal) reveal two separate episodes of fragmentation associated with Pliocene and Pleistocene sea inundations, separating the species into historically separate Northern, East-Central, West-Central, and Southern population lineages. Multilocus Bayesian analysis using IMa indicates asymmetrical migration from the East-Central to the West-Central populations following secondary contact, consistent with expectations from the more pervasive sea inundation in the western region. The West-Central lineage has a genetic signature of population growth consistent with the expectation of geographic expansion into formerly inundated areas. Within each lineage, significant spatial genetic structure indicates isolation by distance at comparable temporal scales. This study adds to the growing body of evidence that vicariant speciation may be the prevailing source of lineage accumulation on oceanic islands. Thus, prior theories of island biogeography generally underestimate the role and temporal scale of intra-island vicariant processes.

Novel patterns of historical isolation, dispersal, and secondary contact across Baja California in the Rosy Boa (Lichanura trivirgata).

PubMed

Wood, Dustin A; Fisher, Robert N; Reeder, Tod W

2008-02-01

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence variation was examined in 131 individuals of the Rosy Boa (Lichanura trivirgata) from across the species range in southwestern North America. Bayesian inference and nested clade phylogeographic analyses (NCPA) were used to estimate relationships and infer evolutionary processes. These patterns were evaluated as they relate to previously hypothesized vicariant events and new insights are provided into the biogeographic and evolutionary processes important in Baja California and surrounding North American deserts. Three major lineages (Lineages A, B, and C) are revealed with very little overlap. Lineage A and B are predominately separated along the Colorado River and are found primarily within California and Arizona (respectively), while Lineage C consists of disjunct groups distributed along the Baja California peninsula as well as south-central Arizona, southward along the coastal regions of Sonora, Mexico. Estimated divergence time points (using a Bayesian relaxed molecular clock) and geographic congruence with postulated vicariant events suggest early extensions of the Gulf of California and subsequent development of the Colorado River during the Late Miocene-Pliocene led to the formation of these mtDNA lineages. Our results also suggest that vicariance hypotheses alone do not fully explain patterns of genetic variation. Therefore, we highlight the importance of dispersal to explain these patterns and current distribution of populations. We also compare the mtDNA lineages with those based on morphological variation and evaluate their implications for taxonomy.

Novel patterns of historical isolation, dispersal, and secondary contact across Baja California in the Rosy Boa (Lichanura trivirgata)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, D.A.; Fisher, R.N.; Reeder, T.W.

2008-01-01

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence variation was examined in 131 individuals of the Rosy Boa (Lichanura trivirgata) from across the species range in southwestern North America. Bayesian inference and nested clade phylogeographic analyses (NCPA) were used to estimate relationships and infer evolutionary processes. These patterns were evaluated as they relate to previously hypothesized vicariant events and new insights are provided into the biogeographic and evolutionary processes important in Baja California and surrounding North American deserts. Three major lineages (Lineages A, B, and C) are revealed with very little overlap. Lineage A and B are predominately separated along the Colorado River and are found primarily within California and Arizona (respectively), while Lineage C consists of disjunct groups distributed along the Baja California peninsula as well as south-central Arizona, southward along the coastal regions of Sonora, Mexico. Estimated divergence time points (using a Bayesian relaxed molecular clock) and geographic congruence with postulated vicariant events suggest early extensions of the Gulf of California and subsequent development of the Colorado River during the Late Miocene-Pliocene led to the formation of these mtDNA lineages. Our results also suggest that vicariance hypotheses alone do not fully explain patterns of genetic variation. Therefore, we highlight the importance of dispersal to explain these patterns and current distribution of populations. We also compare the mtDNA lineages with those based on morphological variation and evaluate their implications for taxonomy. ?? 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Speciation at the Mogollon Rim in the Arizona Mountain Kingsnake (Lampropeltis pyromelana).

PubMed

Burbrink, Frank T; Yao, Helen; Ingrasci, Matthew; Bryson, Robert W; Guiher, Timothy J; Ruane, Sara

2011-09-01

Studies of speciation and taxon delimitation are usually decoupled. Combining these methods provides a stronger theoretical ground for recognizing new taxa and understanding processes of speciation. Using coalescent methods, we examine speciation, post-speciation population demographics, and taxon delimitation in the Arizona Mountain Kingsnake (Lampropeltis pyromelana), a species restricted to high elevations in southwestern United States and northern Mexico (SW). These methods provide a solid foundation for understanding how biogeographic barriers operate at the regional scale in the SW. Bayesian species delimitation methods, using three loci from samples of L. pyromelana taken throughout their range, show strong support for the existence of two species that are separated by low elevation habitats found between the Colorado Plateau/ Mogollon Rim and the Sierra Madre Occidental. Our results suggest an allopatric mode of speciation given the near absence of gene flow over time, which resulted in two lineages of unequal population sizes. Speciation likely occurred prior to the Pleistocene, during the aridification of the SW and/or the uplift of the Colorado Plateau, and while these species occupy similar high-elevation niches, they are isolated by xeric conditions found in the intervening low deserts. Furthermore, post-speciation demographics suggest that populations of both lineages were not negatively impacted by climate change throughout the Pleistocene. Finally, our results suggest that at least for this group, where divergence is old and gene flow is low, Bayesian species delimitation performs well. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Biogeographical Consequences of Cenozoic Tectonic Events within East Asian Margins: A Case Study of Hynobius Biogeography

PubMed Central

Li, Jun; Fu, Cuizhang; Lei, Guangchun

2011-01-01

Few studies have explored the role of Cenozoic tectonic evolution in shaping patterns and processes of extant animal distributions within East Asian margins. We select Hynobius salamanders (Amphibia: Hynobiidae) as a model to examine biogeographical consequences of Cenozoic tectonic events within East Asian margins. First, we use GenBank molecular data to reconstruct phylogenetic interrelationships of Hynobius by Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses. Second, we estimate the divergence time using the Bayesian relaxed clock approach and infer dispersal/vicariance histories under the ‘dispersal–extinction–cladogenesis’ model. Finally, we test whether evolutionary history and biogeographical processes of Hynobius should coincide with the predictions of two major hypotheses (the ‘vicariance’/‘out of southwestern Japan’ hypothesis). The resulting phylogeny confirmed Hynobius as a monophyletic group, which could be divided into nine major clades associated with six geographical areas. Our results show that: (1) the most recent common ancestor of Hynobius was distributed in southwestern Japan and Hokkaido Island, (2) a sister taxon relationship between Hynobius retardatus and all remaining species was the results of a vicariance event between Hokkaido Island and southwestern Japan in the Middle Eocene, (3) ancestral Hynobius in southwestern Japan dispersed into the Taiwan Island, central China, ‘Korean Peninsula and northeastern China’ as well as northeastern Honshu during the Late Eocene–Late Miocene. Our findings suggest that Cenozoic tectonic evolution plays an important role in shaping disjunctive distributions of extant Hynobius within East Asian margins. PMID:21738684

The Species versus Subspecies Conundrum: Quantitative Delimitation from Integrating Multiple Data Types within a Single Bayesian Approach in Hercules Beetles.

PubMed

Huang, Jen-Pan; Knowles, L Lacey

2016-07-01

With the recent attention and focus on quantitative methods for species delimitation, an overlooked but equally important issue regards what has actually been delimited. This study investigates the apparent arbitrariness of some taxonomic distinctions, and in particular how species and subspecies are assigned. Specifically, we use a recently developed Bayesian model-based approach to show that in the Hercules beetles (genus Dynastes) there is no statistical difference in the probability that putative taxa represent different species, irrespective of whether they were given species or subspecies designations. By considering multiple data types, as opposed to relying exclusively on genetic data alone, we also show that both previously recognized species and subspecies represent a variety of points along the speciation spectrum (i.e., previously recognized species are not systematically further along the continuum than subspecies). For example, based on evolutionary models of divergence, some taxa are statistically distinguishable on more than one axis of differentiation (e.g., along both phenotypic and genetic dimensions), whereas other taxa can only be delimited statistically from a single data type. Because both phenotypic and genetic data are analyzed in a common Bayesian framework, our study provides a framework for investigating whether disagreements in species boundaries among data types reflect (i) actual discordance with the actual history of lineage splitting, or instead (ii) differences among data types in the amount of time required for differentiation to become apparent among the delimited taxa. We discuss what the answers to these questions imply about what characters are used to delimit species, as well as the diverse processes involved in the origin and maintenance of species boundaries. With this in mind, we then reflect more generally on how quantitative methods for species delimitation are used to assign taxonomic status. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Nuclear and mtDNA phylogenetic analyses clarify the evolutionary history of two species of native Hawaiian bats and the taxonomy of Lasiurini (Mammalia: Chiroptera).

PubMed

Baird, Amy B; Braun, Janet K; Engstrom, Mark D; Holbert, Ashlyn C; Huerta, Maritza G; Lim, Burton K; Mares, Michael A; Patton, John C; Bickham, John W

2017-01-01

Previous studies on genetics of hoary bats produced differing conclusions on the timing of their colonization of the Hawaiian Islands and whether or not North American (Aeorestes cinereus) and Hawaiian (A. semotus) hoary bats are distinct species. One study, using mtDNA COI and nuclear Rag2 and CMA1, concluded that hoary bats colonized the Hawaiian Islands no more than 10,000 years ago based on indications of population expansion at that time using Extended Bayesian Skyline Plots. The other study, using 3 mtDNA and 1 Y-chromosome locus, concluded that the Hawaiian Islands were colonized about 1 million years ago. To address the marked inconsistencies between those studies, we examined DNA sequences from 4 mitochondrial and 2 nuclear loci in lasiurine bats to investigate the timing of colonization of the Hawaiian Islands by hoary bats, test the hypothesis that Hawaiian and North American hoary bats belong to different species, and further investigate the generic level taxonomy within the tribe. Phylogenetic analysis and dating of the nodes of mtDNA haplotypes and of nuclear CMA1 alleles show that A. semotus invaded the Hawaiian Islands approximately 1.35 Ma and that multiple arrivals of A. cinereus occurred much more recently. Extended Bayesian Skyline plots show population expansion at about 20,000 years ago in the Hawaiian Islands, which we conclude does not represent the timing of colonization of the Hawaiian Islands given the high degree of genetic differentiation among A. cinereus and A. semotus (4.2% divergence at mtDNA Cytb) and the high degree of genetic diversity within A. semotus. Rather, population expansion 20,000 years ago could have resulted from colonization of additional islands, expansion after a bottleneck, or other factors. New genetic data also support the recognition of A. semotus and A. cinereus as distinct species, a finding consistent with previous morphological and behavioral studies. The phylogenetic analysis of CMA1 alleles shows the presence of 2 clades that are primarily associated with A. semotus mtDNA haplotypes, and are unique to the Hawaiian Islands. There is evidence for low levels of hybridization between A. semotus and A. cinereus on the Hawaiian Islands, but it is not extensive (<15% of individuals are of hybrid origin), and clearly each species is able to maintain its own genetic distinctiveness. Both mtDNA and nuclear DNA sequences show deep divergence between the 3 groups (genera) of lasiurine bats that correspond to the previously recognized morphological differences between them. We show that the Tribe Lasiurini contains the genera Aeorestes (hoary bats), Lasiurus (red bats), and Dasypterus (yellow bats).

Nuclear and mtDNA phylogenetic analyses clarify the evolutionary history of two species of native Hawaiian bats and the taxonomy of Lasiurini (Mammalia: Chiroptera)

PubMed Central

Braun, Janet K.; Engstrom, Mark D.; Holbert, Ashlyn C.; Huerta, Maritza G.; Lim, Burton K.; Mares, Michael A.; Patton, John C.

2017-01-01

Previous studies on genetics of hoary bats produced differing conclusions on the timing of their colonization of the Hawaiian Islands and whether or not North American (Aeorestes cinereus) and Hawaiian (A. semotus) hoary bats are distinct species. One study, using mtDNA COI and nuclear Rag2 and CMA1, concluded that hoary bats colonized the Hawaiian Islands no more than 10,000 years ago based on indications of population expansion at that time using Extended Bayesian Skyline Plots. The other study, using 3 mtDNA and 1 Y-chromosome locus, concluded that the Hawaiian Islands were colonized about 1 million years ago. To address the marked inconsistencies between those studies, we examined DNA sequences from 4 mitochondrial and 2 nuclear loci in lasiurine bats to investigate the timing of colonization of the Hawaiian Islands by hoary bats, test the hypothesis that Hawaiian and North American hoary bats belong to different species, and further investigate the generic level taxonomy within the tribe. Phylogenetic analysis and dating of the nodes of mtDNA haplotypes and of nuclear CMA1 alleles show that A. semotus invaded the Hawaiian Islands approximately 1.35 Ma and that multiple arrivals of A. cinereus occurred much more recently. Extended Bayesian Skyline plots show population expansion at about 20,000 years ago in the Hawaiian Islands, which we conclude does not represent the timing of colonization of the Hawaiian Islands given the high degree of genetic differentiation among A. cinereus and A. semotus (4.2% divergence at mtDNA Cytb) and the high degree of genetic diversity within A. semotus. Rather, population expansion 20,000 years ago could have resulted from colonization of additional islands, expansion after a bottleneck, or other factors. New genetic data also support the recognition of A. semotus and A. cinereus as distinct species, a finding consistent with previous morphological and behavioral studies. The phylogenetic analysis of CMA1 alleles shows the presence of 2 clades that are primarily associated with A. semotus mtDNA haplotypes, and are unique to the Hawaiian Islands. There is evidence for low levels of hybridization between A. semotus and A. cinereus on the Hawaiian Islands, but it is not extensive (<15% of individuals are of hybrid origin), and clearly each species is able to maintain its own genetic distinctiveness. Both mtDNA and nuclear DNA sequences show deep divergence between the 3 groups (genera) of lasiurine bats that correspond to the previously recognized morphological differences between them. We show that the Tribe Lasiurini contains the genera Aeorestes (hoary bats), Lasiurus (red bats), and Dasypterus (yellow bats). PMID:29020097

Divergence and gene flow in the globally distributed blue-winged ducks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, Joel; Wilson, Robert E.; McCracken, Kevin G.; Cumming, Graeme; Joseph, Leo; Guay, Patrick-Jean; Peters, Jeffrey

2017-01-01

The ability to disperse over long distances can result in a high propensity for colonizing new geographic regions, including uninhabited continents, and lead to lineage diversification via allopatric speciation. However, high vagility can also result in gene flow between otherwise allopatric populations, and in some cases, parapatric or divergence-with-gene-flow models might be more applicable to widely distributed lineages. Here, we use five nuclear introns and the mitochondrial control region along with Bayesian models of isolation with migration to examine divergence, gene flow, and phylogenetic relationships within a cosmopolitan lineage comprising six species, the blue-winged ducks (genus Anas), which inhabit all continents except Antarctica. We found two primary sub-lineages, the globally-distributed shoveler group and the New World blue-winged/cinnamon teal group. The blue-winged/cinnamon sub-lineage is composed of sister taxa from North America and South America, and taxa with parapatric distributions are characterized by low to moderate levels of gene flow. In contrast, our data support strict allopatry for most comparisons within the shovelers. However, we found evidence of gene flow from the migratory, Holarctic northern shoveler (A. clypeata) and the more sedentary, African Cape shoveler (A. smithii) into the Australasian shoveler (A. rhynchotis), although we could not reject strict allopatry. Given the diverse mechanisms of speciation within this complex, the shovelers and blue-winged/cinnamon teals can serve as an effective model system for examining how the genome diverges under different evolutionary processes and how genetic variation is partitioned among highly dispersive taxa.

Bayesian B-spline mapping for dynamic quantitative traits.

PubMed

Xing, Jun; Li, Jiahan; Yang, Runqing; Zhou, Xiaojing; Xu, Shizhong

2012-04-01

Owing to their ability and flexibility to describe individual gene expression at different time points, random regression (RR) analyses have become a popular procedure for the genetic analysis of dynamic traits whose phenotypes are collected over time. Specifically, when modelling the dynamic patterns of gene expressions in the RR framework, B-splines have been proved successful as an alternative to orthogonal polynomials. In the so-called Bayesian B-spline quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping, B-splines are used to characterize the patterns of QTL effects and individual-specific time-dependent environmental errors over time, and the Bayesian shrinkage estimation method is employed to estimate model parameters. Extensive simulations demonstrate that (1) in terms of statistical power, Bayesian B-spline mapping outperforms the interval mapping based on the maximum likelihood; (2) for the simulated dataset with complicated growth curve simulated by B-splines, Legendre polynomial-based Bayesian mapping is not capable of identifying the designed QTLs accurately, even when higher-order Legendre polynomials are considered and (3) for the simulated dataset using Legendre polynomials, the Bayesian B-spline mapping can find the same QTLs as those identified by Legendre polynomial analysis. All simulation results support the necessity and flexibility of B-spline in Bayesian mapping of dynamic traits. The proposed method is also applied to a real dataset, where QTLs controlling the growth trajectory of stem diameters in Populus are located.

Evolutionary History and Phylodynamics of Influenza A and B Neuraminidase (NA) Genes Inferred from Large-Scale Sequence Analyses

PubMed Central

Xu, Jianpeng; Davis, C. Todd; Christman, Mary C.; Rivailler, Pierre; Zhong, Haizhen; Donis, Ruben O.; Lu, Guoqing

2012-01-01

Background Influenza neuraminidase (NA) is an important surface glycoprotein and plays a vital role in viral replication and drug development. The NA is found in influenza A and B viruses, with nine subtypes classified in influenza A. The complete knowledge of influenza NA evolutionary history and phylodynamics, although critical for the prevention and control of influenza epidemics and pandemics, remains lacking. Methodology/Principal findings Evolutionary and phylogenetic analyses of influenza NA sequences using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian MCMC methods demonstrated that the divergence of influenza viruses into types A and B occurred earlier than the divergence of influenza A NA subtypes. Twenty-three lineages were identified within influenza A, two lineages were classified within influenza B, and most lineages were specific to host, subtype or geographical location. Interestingly, evolutionary rates vary not only among lineages but also among branches within lineages. The estimated tMRCAs of influenza lineages suggest that the viruses of different lineages emerge several months or even years before their initial detection. The d N /d S ratios ranged from 0.062 to 0.313 for influenza A lineages, and 0.257 to 0.259 for influenza B lineages. Structural analyses revealed that all positively selected sites are at the surface of the NA protein, with a number of sites found to be important for host antibody and drug binding. Conclusions/Significance The divergence into influenza type A and B from a putative ancestral NA was followed by the divergence of type A into nine NA subtypes, of which 23 lineages subsequently diverged. This study provides a better understanding of influenza NA lineages and their evolutionary dynamics, which may facilitate early detection of newly emerging influenza viruses and thus improve influenza surveillance. PMID:22808012

Relative information content of polymorphic microsatellites and mitochondrial DNA for inferring dispersal and population genetic structure in the olive sea snake, Aipysurus laevis.

PubMed

Lukoschek, V; Waycott, M; Keogh, J S

2008-07-01

Polymorphic microsatellites are widely considered more powerful for resolving population structure than mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers, particularly for recently diverged lineages or geographically proximate populations. Weaker population subdivision for biparentally inherited nuclear markers than maternally inherited mtDNA may signal male-biased dispersal but can also be attributed to marker-specific evolutionary characteristics and sampling properties. We discriminated between these competing explanations with a population genetic study on olive sea snakes, Aipysurus laevis. A previous mtDNA study revealed strong regional population structure for A. laevis around northern Australia, where Pleistocene sea-level fluctuations have influenced the genetic signatures of shallow-water marine species. Divergences among phylogroups dated to the Late Pleistocene, suggesting recent range expansions by previously isolated matrilines. Fine-scale population structure within regions was, however, poorly resolved for mtDNA. In order to improve estimates of fine-scale genetic divergence and to compare population structure between nuclear and mtDNA, 354 olive sea snakes (previously sequenced for mtDNA) were genotyped for five microsatellite loci. F statistics and Bayesian multilocus genotype clustering analyses found similar regional population structure as mtDNA and, after standardizing microsatellite F statistics for high heterozygosities, regional divergence estimates were quantitatively congruent between marker classes. Over small spatial scales, however, microsatellites recovered almost no genetic structure and standardized F statistics were orders of magnitude smaller than for mtDNA. Three tests for male-biased dispersal were not significant, suggesting that recent demographic expansions to the typically large population sizes of A. laevis have prevented microsatellites from reaching mutation-drift equilibrium and local populations may still be diverging.

An infrared divergence in the cosmological measure theory and the anthropic reasoning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yurov, A. V.; Yurov, V. A.; Astashenok, A. V.; Shpilevoi, A. A.

2011-10-01

An anthropic principle has made it possible to answer the difficult question of why the observable value of cosmological constant ( Λ˜10-47 GeV4) is so disconcertingly tiny compared to the predicted value of vacuum energy density ρ SUSY˜1012 GeV4. Unfortunately, there is a darker side to this argument; being combined with the cosmic heat death scenario, it consequently leads to another absurd prediction: the probability of randomly selected observer observing Λ=0 ends up being exactly equal to 1. We shall call this controversy an infrared divergence problem. It is shown that the IRD prediction can be avoided with the help of a singular runaway measure coupled with the calculation of relative Bayesian probabilities by the means of the doomsday argument. Moreover, it is shown that while the IRD problem occurs for the prediction stage of value of Λ, it disappears at the explanatory stage when Λ has already been measured by the observer.

Speciation within Columnea section Angustiflora (Gesneriaceae): islands, pollinators and climate.

PubMed

Schulte, Lacie J; Clark, John L; Novak, Stephen J; Jeffries, Shandra K; Smith, James F

2015-03-01

Despite many advances in evolutionary biology, understanding the proximate mechanisms that lead to speciation for many taxonomic groups remains elusive. Phylogenetic analyses provide a means to generate well-supported estimates of species relationships. Understanding how genetic isolation (restricted gene flow) occurred in the past requires not only a well-supported molecular phylogenetic analysis, but also an understanding of when character states that define species may have changed. In this study, phylogenetic trees resolve species level relationships for fourteen of the fifteen species within Columnea section Angustiflorae (Gesneriaceae). The distributions of sister species pairs are compared and ancestral character states are reconstructed using Bayesian stochastic mapping. Climate variables were also assessed and shifts in ancestral climate conditions were mapped using SEEVA. The relationships between morphological character states and climate variables were assessed with correlation analyses. These results indicate that species in section Angustiflorae have likely diverged as a result of allopatric, parapatric, and sympatric speciation, with both biotic and abiotic forces driving morphological and phenological divergence. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development and comparison of Bayesian modularization method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Xu, C.-Y.; Engeland, K.

2012-04-01

With respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, different approaches have been used in hydrological models. Bayesian method is one of the most widely used methods for uncertainty assessment of hydrological models, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayesian theorem. However, none of these applications can well treat the uncertainty in extreme flows of hydrological models' simulations. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization method approach in uncertainty assessment of conceptual hydrological models by considering the extreme flows. It includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by a new Bayesian modularization method approach and traditional Bayesian models using the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions are used in combination with traditional Bayesian: the AR (1) plus Normal and time period independent model (Model 1), the AR (1) plus Normal and time period dependent model (Model 2) and the AR (1) plus multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that (1) the simulations derived from Bayesian modularization method are more accurate with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value, and (2) the Bayesian modularization method performs best in uncertainty estimates of entire flows and in terms of the application and computational efficiency. The study thus introduces a new approach for reducing the extreme flow's effect on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian. Keywords: extreme flow, uncertainty assessment, Bayesian modularization, hydrological model, WASMOD

Evolutionary and biogeographic history of weasel-like carnivorans (Musteloidea).

PubMed

Sato, Jun J; Wolsan, Mieczyslaw; Prevosti, Francisco J; D'Elía, Guillermo; Begg, Colleen; Begg, Keith; Hosoda, Tetsuji; Campbell, Kevin L; Suzuki, Hitoshi

2012-06-01

We analyzed a concatenated (8492 bp) nuclear-mitochondrial DNA data set from 44 musteloids (including the first genetic data for Lyncodon patagonicus) with parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian methods of phylogenetic and biogeographic inference and two Bayesian methods of chronological inference. Here we show that Musteloidea emerged approximately 32.4-30.9 million years ago (MYA) in Asia, shortly after the greenhouse-icehouse global climate shift at the Eocene-Oligocene transition. During their Oligocene radiation, which proceeded wholly or mostly in Asia, musteloids diversified into four primary divisions: the Mephitidae lineage separated first, succeeded by Ailuridae and the divergence of the Procyonidae and Mustelidae lineages. Mustelidae arose approximately 16.1 MYA within the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum, and extensively diversified in the Miocene, mostly in Asia. The early offshoots of this radiation largely evolved into badger and marten ecological niches (Taxidiinae, Melinae, Mellivorinae, Guloninae, and Helictidinae), whereas the later divergences have adapted to other niches including those of weasels, polecats, minks, and otters (Mustelinae, Ictonychinae, and Lutrinae). Notably, and contrary to traditional beliefs, the morphological adaptations of badgers, martens, weasels, polecats, and minks each evolved independently more than once within Mustelidae. Ictonychinae (which is most closely related to Lutrinae) arose approximately 9.5-8.9 MYA, most likely in Asia, where it diverged into the Old World Ictonychini (Vormela, Poecilictis, Ictonyx, and Poecilogale) and New World Lyncodontini (Lyncodon and Galictis) lineages. Ictonychini presumably entered Africa during the Messinian Salinity Crisis (at the Miocene-Pliocene transition), which interposed the origins of this clade (approximately 6.5-6.0 MYA) and its African Poecilictis-Ictonyx-Poecilogale subclade (approximately 4.8-4.5 MYA). Lyncodontini originated approximately 2.9-2.6 MYA at the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition in South America, slightly after the emergence of the Panamanian land bridge that provided for the Great American Biotic Interchange. As the genera Martes and Ictonyx (as currently circumscribed) are paraphyletic with respect to the genera Gulo and Poecilogale, respectively, we propose that Pekaniaand Poecilictis be treated as valid genera and that "Martes"pennanti and "Ictonyx"libyca, respectively, be assigned to these genera. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistical analysis of textural features for improved classification of oral histopathological images.

PubMed

Muthu Rama Krishnan, M; Shah, Pratik; Chakraborty, Chandan; Ray, Ajoy K

2012-04-01

The objective of this paper is to provide an improved technique, which can assist oncopathologists in correct screening of oral precancerous conditions specially oral submucous fibrosis (OSF) with significant accuracy on the basis of collagen fibres in the sub-epithelial connective tissue. The proposed scheme is composed of collagen fibres segmentation, its textural feature extraction and selection, screening perfomance enhancement under Gaussian transformation and finally classification. In this study, collagen fibres are segmented on R,G,B color channels using back-probagation neural network from 60 normal and 59 OSF histological images followed by histogram specification for reducing the stain intensity variation. Henceforth, textural features of collgen area are extracted using fractal approaches viz., differential box counting and brownian motion curve . Feature selection is done using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence criterion and the screening performance is evaluated based on various statistical tests to conform Gaussian nature. Here, the screening performance is enhanced under Gaussian transformation of the non-Gaussian features using hybrid distribution. Moreover, the routine screening is designed based on two statistical classifiers viz., Bayesian classification and support vector machines (SVM) to classify normal and OSF. It is observed that SVM with linear kernel function provides better classification accuracy (91.64%) as compared to Bayesian classifier. The addition of fractal features of collagen under Gaussian transformation improves Bayesian classifier's performance from 80.69% to 90.75%. Results are here studied and discussed.

A divergent Cardinium found in daddy long-legs (Arachnida: Opiliones).

PubMed

Chang, Jin; Masters, Amber; Avery, Amanda; Werren, John H

2010-11-01

Recent studies indicate that a newly described bacterial endosymbiont, Cardinium, is widespread in arthropods and induces different reproductive manipulations in hosts. In this study, we used a portion of the 16S rRNA gene of the Cardinium to screen 16 Opilionid species from the suborder Palptores. We found the incidence of Cardinium in these Opiliones was significantly higher than in other pooled arthropods (31.2% versus 7.2%, P=0.007). Phylogenetic analyses using maximum parsimony (MP) and Bayesian analysis revealed two distinct clades in Opiliones. One is a divergent monophyletic clade with strong support that has so far not been found in other arthropods, and a second one contains Cardinium both from Opiliones and other arthropods. There is not complete concordance of the Cardinium strains with host phylogeny, suggesting some horizontal movement of the bacteria among Opiliones. Although the divergence in the sequenced 16S rRNA region between the Cardinium infecting Opiliones and Cardinium from other arthropods is greater than among Cardinium found in other arthropods, all are monophyletic with respect to the outgroup bacteria (endosymbionts of Acanthamoeba). Based on high pairwise genetic distances, deep branch, and a distinct phylogenetic grouping, we conclude that some Opiliones harbor a newly discovered Cardinium clade. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population history, phylogeography, and conservation genetics of the last Neotropical mega-herbivore, the lowland tapir (Tapirus terrestris)

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Understanding the forces that shaped Neotropical diversity is central issue to explain tropical biodiversity and inform conservation action; yet few studies have examined large, widespread species. Lowland tapir (Tapirus terrrestris, Perissodactyla, Tapiridae) is the largest Neotropical herbivore whose ancestors arrived in South America during the Great American Biotic Interchange. A Pleistocene diversification is inferred for the genus Tapirus from the fossil record, but only two species survived the Pleistocene megafauna extinction. Here, we investigate the history of lowland tapir as revealed by variation at the mitochondrial gene Cytochrome b, compare it to the fossil data, and explore mechanisms that could have shaped the observed structure of current populations. Results Separate methodological approaches found mutually exclusive divergence times for lowland tapir, either in the late or in the early Pleistocene, although a late Pleistocene divergence is more in tune with the fossil record. Bayesian analysis favored mountain tapir (T. pinchaque) paraphyly in relation to lowland tapir over reciprocal monophyly, corroborating the inferences from the fossil data these species are sister taxa. A coalescent-based analysis rejected a null hypothesis of allopatric divergence, suggesting a complex history. Based on the geographic distribution of haplotypes we propose (i) a central role for western Amazonia in tapir diversification, with a key role of the ecological gradient along the transition between Andean subcloud forests and Amazon lowland forest, and (ii) that the Amazon river acted as an barrier to gene flow. Finally, the branching patterns and estimates based on nucleotide diversity indicate a population expansion after the Last Glacial Maximum. Conclusions This study is the first examining lowland tapir phylogeography. Climatic events at the end of the Pleistocene, parapatric speciation, divergence along the Andean foothill, and role of the Amazon river, have similarly shaped the history of other taxa. Nevertheless further work with additional samples and loci is needed to improve our initial assessment. From a conservation perspective, we did not find a correspondence between genetic structure in lowland tapir and ecogeographic regions proposed to define conservation priorities in the Neotropics. This discrepancy sheds doubt into this scheme's ability to generate effective conservation planning for vagile species. PMID:20840756

Population history, phylogeography, and conservation genetics of the last Neotropical mega-herbivore, the lowland tapir (Tapirus terrestris).

PubMed

de Thoisy, Benoit; da Silva, Anders Gonçalves; Ruiz-García, Manuel; Tapia, Andrés; Ramirez, Oswaldo; Arana, Margarita; Quse, Viviana; Paz-y-Miño, César; Tobler, Mathias; Pedraza, Carlos; Lavergne, Anne

2010-09-14

Understanding the forces that shaped Neotropical diversity is central issue to explain tropical biodiversity and inform conservation action; yet few studies have examined large, widespread species. Lowland tapir (Tapirus terrrestris, Perissodactyla, Tapiridae) is the largest Neotropical herbivore whose ancestors arrived in South America during the Great American Biotic Interchange. A Pleistocene diversification is inferred for the genus Tapirus from the fossil record, but only two species survived the Pleistocene megafauna extinction. Here, we investigate the history of lowland tapir as revealed by variation at the mitochondrial gene Cytochrome b, compare it to the fossil data, and explore mechanisms that could have shaped the observed structure of current populations. Separate methodological approaches found mutually exclusive divergence times for lowland tapir, either in the late or in the early Pleistocene, although a late Pleistocene divergence is more in tune with the fossil record. Bayesian analysis favored mountain tapir (T. pinchaque) paraphyly in relation to lowland tapir over reciprocal monophyly, corroborating the inferences from the fossil data these species are sister taxa. A coalescent-based analysis rejected a null hypothesis of allopatric divergence, suggesting a complex history. Based on the geographic distribution of haplotypes we propose (i) a central role for western Amazonia in tapir diversification, with a key role of the ecological gradient along the transition between Andean subcloud forests and Amazon lowland forest, and (ii) that the Amazon river acted as an barrier to gene flow. Finally, the branching patterns and estimates based on nucleotide diversity indicate a population expansion after the Last Glacial Maximum. This study is the first examining lowland tapir phylogeography. Climatic events at the end of the Pleistocene, parapatric speciation, divergence along the Andean foothill, and role of the Amazon river, have similarly shaped the history of other taxa. Nevertheless further work with additional samples and loci is needed to improve our initial assessment. From a conservation perspective, we did not find a correspondence between genetic structure in lowland tapir and ecogeographic regions proposed to define conservation priorities in the Neotropics. This discrepancy sheds doubt into this scheme's ability to generate effective conservation planning for vagile species.

Ancient DNA sequence revealed by error-correcting codes.

PubMed

Brandão, Marcelo M; Spoladore, Larissa; Faria, Luzinete C B; Rocha, Andréa S L; Silva-Filho, Marcio C; Palazzo, Reginaldo

2015-07-10

A previously described DNA sequence generator algorithm (DNA-SGA) using error-correcting codes has been employed as a computational tool to address the evolutionary pathway of the genetic code. The code-generated sequence alignment demonstrated that a residue mutation revealed by the code can be found in the same position in sequences of distantly related taxa. Furthermore, the code-generated sequences do not promote amino acid changes in the deviant genomes through codon reassignment. A Bayesian evolutionary analysis of both code-generated and homologous sequences of the Arabidopsis thaliana malate dehydrogenase gene indicates an approximately 1 MYA divergence time from the MDH code-generated sequence node to its paralogous sequences. The DNA-SGA helps to determine the plesiomorphic state of DNA sequences because a single nucleotide alteration often occurs in distantly related taxa and can be found in the alternative codon patterns of noncanonical genetic codes. As a consequence, the algorithm may reveal an earlier stage of the evolution of the standard code.

Ancient DNA sequence revealed by error-correcting codes

PubMed Central

Brandão, Marcelo M.; Spoladore, Larissa; Faria, Luzinete C. B.; Rocha, Andréa S. L.; Silva-Filho, Marcio C.; Palazzo, Reginaldo

2015-01-01

A previously described DNA sequence generator algorithm (DNA-SGA) using error-correcting codes has been employed as a computational tool to address the evolutionary pathway of the genetic code. The code-generated sequence alignment demonstrated that a residue mutation revealed by the code can be found in the same position in sequences of distantly related taxa. Furthermore, the code-generated sequences do not promote amino acid changes in the deviant genomes through codon reassignment. A Bayesian evolutionary analysis of both code-generated and homologous sequences of the Arabidopsis thaliana malate dehydrogenase gene indicates an approximately 1 MYA divergence time from the MDH code-generated sequence node to its paralogous sequences. The DNA-SGA helps to determine the plesiomorphic state of DNA sequences because a single nucleotide alteration often occurs in distantly related taxa and can be found in the alternative codon patterns of noncanonical genetic codes. As a consequence, the algorithm may reveal an earlier stage of the evolution of the standard code. PMID:26159228

Species Radiation of Carabid Beetles (Broscini: Mecodema) in New Zealand

PubMed Central

Goldberg, Julia; Knapp, Michael; Emberson, Rowan M.; Townsend, J. Ian; Trewick, Steven A.

2014-01-01

New Zealand biodiversity has often been viewed as Gondwanan in origin and age, but it is increasingly apparent from molecular studies that diversification, and in many cases origination of lineages, postdate the break-up of Gondwanaland. Relatively few studies of New Zealand animal species radiations have as yet been reported, and here we consider the species-rich genus of carabid beetles, Mecodema. Constrained stratigraphic information (emergence of the Chatham Islands) and a substitution rate for Coleoptera were separately used to calibrate Bayesian relaxed molecular clock date estimates for diversification of Mecodema. The inferred timings indicate radiation of these beetles no earlier than the mid-Miocene with most divergences being younger, dating to the Plio-Pleistocene. A shallow age for the radiation along with a complex spatial distribution of these taxa involving many instances of sympatry implicates recent ecological speciation rather than a simplistic allopatric model. This emphasises the youthful and dynamic nature of New Zealand evolution that will be further elucidated with detailed ecological and population genetic analyses. PMID:24465949

Genetic and epigenetic divergence between disturbed and undisturbed subpopulations of a Mediterranean shrub: a 20-year field experiment.

PubMed

Herrera, Carlos M; Bazaga, Pilar

2016-06-01

Little is known on the potential of ecological disturbance to cause genetic and epigenetic changes in plant populations. We take advantage of a long-term field experiment initiated in 1986 to study the demography of the shrub Lavandula latifolia , and compare genetic and epigenetic characteristics of plants in two adjacent subplots, one experimentally disturbed and one left undisturbed, 20 years after disturbance. Experimental setup was comparable to an unreplicated 'Before-After-Control-Impact' (BACI) design where a single pair of perturbed and control areas were compared. When sampled in 2005, plants in the two subplots had roughly similar ages, but they had established in contrasting environments: dense conspecific population ('Undisturbed' subpopulation) versus open area with all conspecifics removed ('Disturbed' subpopulation). Plants were characterized genetically and epigenetically using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) and two classes of methylation-sensitive AFLP (MSAP) markers. Subpopulations were similar in genetic diversity but differed in epigenetic diversity and multilocus genetic and epigenetic characteristics. Epigenetic divergence between subpopulations was statistically unrelated to genetic divergence. Bayesian clustering revealed an abrupt linear boundary between subpopulations closely coincident with the arbitrary demarcation line between subplots drawn 20 years back, which supports that genetic and epigenetic divergence between subpopulations was caused by artificial disturbance. There was significant fine-scale spatial structuring of MSAP markers in both subpopulations, which in the Undisturbed one was indistinguishable from that of AFLP markers. Genetic differences between subpopulations could be explained by divergent selection alone, while the concerted action of divergent selection and disturbance-driven appearance of new methylation variants in the Disturbed subpopulation is proposed to explain epigenetic differences. This study provides the first empirical evidence to date suggesting that relatively mild disturbances could leave genetic and epigenetic signatures on the next adult generation of long-lived plants.

Testing for shared biogeographic history in the lower Central American freshwater fish assemblage using comparative phylogeography: concerted, independent, or multiple evolutionary responses?

PubMed Central

Bagley, Justin C; Johnson, Jerald B

2014-01-01

A central goal of comparative phylogeography is determining whether codistributed species experienced (1) concerted evolutionary responses to past geological and climatic events, indicated by congruent spatial and temporal patterns (“concerted-response hypothesis”); (2) independent responses, indicated by spatial incongruence (“independent-response hypothesis”); or (3) multiple responses (“multiple-response hypothesis”), indicated by spatial congruence but temporal incongruence (“pseudocongruence”) or spatial and temporal incongruence (“pseudoincongruence”). We tested these competing hypotheses using DNA sequence data from three livebearing fish species codistributed in the Nicaraguan depression of Central America (Alfaro cultratus, Poecilia gillii, and Xenophallus umbratilis) that we predicted might display congruent responses due to co-occurrence in identical freshwater drainages. Spatial analyses recovered different subdivisions of genetic structure for each species, despite shared finer-scale breaks in northwestern Costa Rica (also supported by phylogenetic results). Isolation-with-migration models estimated incongruent timelines of among-region divergences, with A. cultratus and Xenophallus populations diverging over Miocene–mid-Pleistocene while P. gillii populations diverged over mid-late Pleistocene. Approximate Bayesian computation also lent substantial support to multiple discrete divergences over a model of simultaneous divergence across shared spatial breaks (e.g., Bayes factor [B10] = 4.303 for Ψ [no. of divergences] > 1 vs. Ψ = 1). Thus, the data support phylogeographic pseudoincongruence consistent with the multiple-response hypothesis. Model comparisons also indicated incongruence in historical demography, for example, support for intraspecific late Pleistocene population growth was unique to P. gillii, despite evidence for finer-scale population expansions in the other taxa. Empirical tests for phylogeographic congruence indicate that multiple evolutionary responses to historical events have shaped the population structure of freshwater species codistributed within the complex landscapes in/around the Nicaraguan depression. Recent community assembly through different routes (i.e., different past distributions or colonization routes), and intrinsic ecological differences among species, has likely contributed to the unique phylogeographical patterns displayed by these Neotropical fishes. PMID:24967085

Bayesian inferences suggest that Amazon Yunga Natives diverged from Andeans less than 5000 ybp: implications for South American prehistory.

PubMed

Scliar, Marilia O; Gouveia, Mateus H; Benazzo, Andrea; Ghirotto, Silvia; Fagundes, Nelson J R; Leal, Thiago P; Magalhães, Wagner C S; Pereira, Latife; Rodrigues, Maira R; Soares-Souza, Giordano B; Cabrera, Lilia; Berg, Douglas E; Gilman, Robert H; Bertorelle, Giorgio; Tarazona-Santos, Eduardo

2014-09-30

Archaeology reports millenary cultural contacts between Peruvian Coast-Andes and the Amazon Yunga, a rainforest transitional region between Andes and Lower Amazonia. To clarify the relationships between cultural and biological evolution of these populations, in particular between Amazon Yungas and Andeans, we used DNA-sequence data, a model-based Bayesian approach and several statistical validations to infer a set of demographic parameters. We found that the genetic diversity of the Shimaa (an Amazon Yunga population) is a subset of that of Quechuas from Central-Andes. Using the Isolation-with-Migration population genetics model, we inferred that the Shimaa ancestors were a small subgroup that split less than 5300 years ago (after the development of complex societies) from an ancestral Andean population. After the split, the most plausible scenario compatible with our results is that the ancestors of Shimaas moved toward the Peruvian Amazon Yunga and incorporated the culture and language of some of their neighbors, but not a substantial amount of their genes. We validated our results using Approximate Bayesian Computations, posterior predictive tests and the analysis of pseudo-observed datasets. We presented a case study in which model-based Bayesian approaches, combined with necessary statistical validations, shed light into the prehistoric demographic relationship between Andeans and a population from the Amazon Yunga. Our results offer a testable model for the peopling of this large transitional environmental region between the Andes and the Lower Amazonia. However, studies on larger samples and involving more populations of these regions are necessary to confirm if the predominant Andean biological origin of the Shimaas is the rule, and not the exception.

Quantifying the uncertainty of nonpoint source attribution in distributed water quality models: A Bayesian assessment of SWAT's sediment export predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wellen, Christopher; Arhonditsis, George B.; Long, Tanya; Boyd, Duncan

2014-11-01

Spatially distributed nonpoint source watershed models are essential tools to estimate the magnitude and sources of diffuse pollution. However, little work has been undertaken to understand the sources and ramifications of the uncertainty involved in their use. In this study we conduct the first Bayesian uncertainty analysis of the water quality components of the SWAT model, one of the most commonly used distributed nonpoint source models. Working in Southern Ontario, we apply three Bayesian configurations for calibrating SWAT to Redhill Creek, an urban catchment, and Grindstone Creek, an agricultural one. We answer four interrelated questions: can SWAT determine suspended sediment sources with confidence when end of basin data is used for calibration? How does uncertainty propagate from the discharge submodel to the suspended sediment submodels? Do the estimated sediment sources vary when different calibration approaches are used? Can we combine the knowledge gained from different calibration approaches? We show that: (i) despite reasonable fit at the basin outlet, the simulated sediment sources are subject to uncertainty sufficient to undermine the typical approach of reliance on a single, best fit simulation; (ii) more than a third of the uncertainty of sediment load predictions may stem from the discharge submodel; (iii) estimated sediment sources do vary significantly across the three statistical configurations of model calibration despite end-of-basin predictions being virtually identical; and (iv) Bayesian model averaging is an approach that can synthesize predictions when a number of adequate distributed models make divergent source apportionments. We conclude with recommendations for future research to reduce the uncertainty encountered when using distributed nonpoint source models for source apportionment.

Comparable Ages for the Independent Origins of Electrogenesis in African and South American Weakly Electric Fishes

PubMed Central

Lavoué, Sébastien; Miya, Masaki; Arnegard, Matthew E.; Sullivan, John P.; Hopkins, Carl D.; Nishida, Mutsumi

2012-01-01

One of the most remarkable examples of convergent evolution among vertebrates is illustrated by the independent origins of an active electric sense in South American and African weakly electric fishes, the Gymnotiformes and Mormyroidea, respectively. These groups independently evolved similar complex systems for object localization and communication via the generation and reception of weak electric fields. While good estimates of divergence times are critical to understanding the temporal context for the evolution and diversification of these two groups, their respective ages have been difficult to estimate due to the absence of an informative fossil record, use of strict molecular clock models in previous studies, and/or incomplete taxonomic sampling. Here, we examine the timing of the origins of the Gymnotiformes and the Mormyroidea using complete mitogenome sequences and a parametric Bayesian method for divergence time reconstruction. Under two different fossil-based calibration methods, we estimated similar ages for the independent origins of the Mormyroidea and Gymnotiformes. Our absolute estimates for the origins of these groups either slightly postdate, or just predate, the final separation of Africa and South America by continental drift. The most recent common ancestor of the Mormyroidea and Gymnotiformes was found to be a non-electrogenic basal teleost living more than 85 millions years earlier. For both electric fish lineages, we also estimated similar intervals (16–19 or 22–26 million years, depending on calibration method) between the appearance of electroreception and the origin of myogenic electric organs, providing rough upper estimates for the time periods during which these complex electric organs evolved de novo from skeletal muscle precursors. The fact that the Gymnotiformes and Mormyroidea are of similar age enhances the comparative value of the weakly electric fish system for investigating pathways to evolutionary novelty, as well as the influences of key innovations in communication on the process of species radiation. PMID:22606250

Time-varying nonstationary multivariate risk analysis using a dynamic Bayesian copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, Ali; Burn, Donald H.; Concepción Ausín, María.; Wiper, Michael P.

2016-03-01

A time-varying risk analysis is proposed for an adaptive design framework in nonstationary conditions arising from climate change. A Bayesian, dynamic conditional copula is developed for modeling the time-varying dependence structure between mixed continuous and discrete multiattributes of multidimensional hydrometeorological phenomena. Joint Bayesian inference is carried out to fit the marginals and copula in an illustrative example using an adaptive, Gibbs Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. Posterior mean estimates and credible intervals are provided for the model parameters and the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) is used to select the model that best captures different forms of nonstationarity over time. This study also introduces a fully Bayesian, time-varying joint return period for multivariate time-dependent risk analysis in nonstationary environments. The results demonstrate that the nature and the risk of extreme-climate multidimensional processes are changed over time under the impact of climate change, and accordingly the long-term decision making strategies should be updated based on the anomalies of the nonstationary environment.

A Bayesian Approach for Summarizing and Modeling Time-Series Exposure Data with Left Censoring.

PubMed

Houseman, E Andres; Virji, M Abbas

2017-08-01

Direct reading instruments are valuable tools for measuring exposure as they provide real-time measurements for rapid decision making. However, their use is limited to general survey applications in part due to issues related to their performance. Moreover, statistical analysis of real-time data is complicated by autocorrelation among successive measurements, non-stationary time series, and the presence of left-censoring due to limit-of-detection (LOD). A Bayesian framework is proposed that accounts for non-stationary autocorrelation and LOD issues in exposure time-series data in order to model workplace factors that affect exposure and estimate summary statistics for tasks or other covariates of interest. A spline-based approach is used to model non-stationary autocorrelation with relatively few assumptions about autocorrelation structure. Left-censoring is addressed by integrating over the left tail of the distribution. The model is fit using Markov-Chain Monte Carlo within a Bayesian paradigm. The method can flexibly account for hierarchical relationships, random effects and fixed effects of covariates. The method is implemented using the rjags package in R, and is illustrated by applying it to real-time exposure data. Estimates for task means and covariates from the Bayesian model are compared to those from conventional frequentist models including linear regression, mixed-effects, and time-series models with different autocorrelation structures. Simulations studies are also conducted to evaluate method performance. Simulation studies with percent of measurements below the LOD ranging from 0 to 50% showed lowest root mean squared errors for task means and the least biased standard deviations from the Bayesian model compared to the frequentist models across all levels of LOD. In the application, task means from the Bayesian model were similar to means from the frequentist models, while the standard deviations were different. Parameter estimates for covariates were significant in some frequentist models, but in the Bayesian model their credible intervals contained zero; such discrepancies were observed in multiple datasets. Variance components from the Bayesian model reflected substantial autocorrelation, consistent with the frequentist models, except for the auto-regressive moving average model. Plots of means from the Bayesian model showed good fit to the observed data. The proposed Bayesian model provides an approach for modeling non-stationary autocorrelation in a hierarchical modeling framework to estimate task means, standard deviations, quantiles, and parameter estimates for covariates that are less biased and have better performance characteristics than some of the contemporary methods. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society 2017.

Temporal and spatial diversification of Pteroglossus araçaris (AVES: Ramphastidae) in the neotropics: constant rate of diversification does not support an increase in radiation during the Pleistocene.

PubMed

Patel, Swati; Weckstein, Jason D; Patané, José S L; Bates, John M; Aleixo, Alexandre

2011-01-01

We use the small-bodied toucan genus Pteroglossus to test hypotheses about diversification in the lowland Neotropics. We sequenced three mitochondrial genes and one nuclear intron from all Pteroglossus species and used these data to reconstruct phylogenetic trees based on maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian analyses. These phylogenetic trees were used to make inferences regarding both the pattern and timing of diversification for the group. We used the uplift of the Talamanca highlands of Costa Rica and western Panama as a geologic calibration for estimating divergence times on the Pteroglossus tree and compared these results with a standard molecular clock calibration. Then, we used likelihood methods to model the rate of diversification. Based on our analyses, the onset of the Pteroglossus radiation predates the Pleistocene, which has been predicted to have played a pivotal role in diversification in the Amazon rainforest biota. We found a constant rate of diversification in Pteroglossus evolutionary history, and thus no support that events during the Pleistocene caused an increase in diversification. We compare our data to other avian phylogenies to better understand major biogeographic events in the Neotropics. These comparisons support recurring forest connections between the Amazonian and Atlantic forests, and the splitting of cis/trans Andean species after the final uplift of the Andes. At the subspecies level, there is evidence for reciprocal monophyly and groups are often separated by major rivers, demonstrating the important role of rivers in causing or maintaining divergence. Because some of the results presented here conflict with current taxonomy of Pteroglossus, new taxonomic arrangements are suggested. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary Diversification of New Caledonian Araucaria

PubMed Central

Kranitz, Mai Lan; Biffin, Edward; Clark, Alexandra; Hollingsworth, Michelle L.; Ruhsam, Markus; Gardner, Martin F.; Thomas, Philip; Mill, Robert R.; Ennos, Richard A.; Gaudeul, Myriam; Lowe, Andrew J.; Hollingsworth, Peter M.

2014-01-01

New Caledonia is a global biodiversity hotspot. Hypotheses for its biotic richness suggest either that the island is a ‘museum’ for an old Gondwana biota or alternatively it has developed following relatively recent long distance dispersal and in situ radiation. The conifer genus Araucaria (Araucariaceae) comprises 19 species globally with 13 endemic to this island. With a typically Gondwanan distribution, Araucaria is particularly well suited to testing alternative biogeographic hypotheses concerning the origins of New Caledonian biota. We derived phylogenetic estimates using 11 plastid and rDNA ITS2 sequence data for a complete sampling of Araucaria (including multiple accessions of each of the 13 New Caledonian Araucaria species). In addition, we developed a dataset comprising 4 plastid regions for a wider taxon sample to facilitate fossil based molecular dating. Following statistical analyses to identify a credible and internally consistent set of fossil constraints, divergence times estimated using a Bayesian relaxed clock approach were contrasted with geological scenarios to explore the biogeographic history of Araucaria. The phylogenetic data resolve relationships within Araucariaceae and among the main lineages in Araucaria, but provide limited resolution within the monophyletic New Caledonian species group. Divergence time estimates suggest a Late Cretaceous-Cenozoic radiation of extant Araucaria and a Neogene radiation of the New Caledonian lineage. A molecular timescale for the evolution of Araucariaceae supports a relatively recent radiation, and suggests that earlier (pre-Cenozoic) fossil types assigned to Araucaria may have affinities elsewhere in Araucariaceae. While additional data will be required to adequately resolve relationships among the New Caledonian species, their recent origin is consistent with overwater dispersal following Eocene emersion of New Caledonia but is too old to support a single dispersal from Australia to Norfolk Island for the radiation of the Pacific Araucaria sect. Eutacta clade. PMID:25340350

A jungle tale: Molecular phylogeny and divergence time estimates of the Desmopsis-Stenanona clade (Annonaceae) in Mesoamerica.

PubMed

Ortiz-Rodriguez, Andrés Ernesto; Ornelas, Juan Francisco; Ruiz-Sanchez, Eduardo

2018-05-01

The predominantly Asian tribe Miliuseae (Annonaceae) includes over 37 Neotropical species that are mainly distributed across Mesoamerica, from southern Mexico to northern Colombia. The tremendous ecological and morphological diversity of this clade, including ramiflory, cauliflory, flagelliflory, and clonality, suggests adaptive radiation. Despite the spectacular phenotypic divergence of this clade, little is known about its phylogenetic and evolutionary history. In this study we used a nuclear DNA marker and seven chloroplast markers, and maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference methods to reconstruct a comprehensive time-calibrated phylogeny of tribe Miliuseae, especially focusing on the Desmopsis-Stenanona clade. We also perform ancestral area reconstructions to infer the biogeographic history of this group. Finally, we use ecological niche modeling, lineage distribution models, and niche overlap tests to assess whether geographic isolation and ecological specialization influenced the diversification of lineages within this clade. We reconstructed a monophyletic Miliuseae that is divided into two strongly supported clades: (i) a Sapranthus-Tridimeris clade and (ii) a Desmopsis-Stenanona clade. The colonization of the Neotropics and subsequent diversification of Neotropical Miliuseae seems to have been associated with the expansion of the boreotropical forests during the late Eocene and their subsequent fragmentation and southern displacement. Further speciation within Neotropical Miliuseae out of the Maya block seems to have occurred during the last 15 million years. Lastly, the geographic structuring of major lineages of the Desmopsis-Stenanona clade seems to have followed a climatic gradient, supporting the hypothesis that morphological differentiation between closely related species resulted from both long-term isolation between geographic ranges and adaptation to environmental conditions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Three-Stage Colonization Model for the Peopling of the Americas

PubMed Central

Kitchen, Andrew; Miyamoto, Michael M.; Mulligan, Connie J.

2008-01-01

Background We evaluate the process by which the Americas were originally colonized and propose a three-stage model that integrates current genetic, archaeological, geological, and paleoecological data. Specifically, we analyze mitochondrial and nuclear genetic data by using complementary coalescent models of demographic history and incorporating non-genetic data to enhance the anthropological relevance of the analysis. Methodology/Findings Bayesian skyline plots, which provide dynamic representations of population size changes over time, indicate that Amerinds went through two stages of growth ≈40,000 and ≈15,000 years ago separated by a long period of population stability. Isolation-with-migration coalescent analyses, which utilize data from sister populations to estimate a divergence date and founder population sizes, suggest an Amerind population expansion starting ≈15,000 years ago. Conclusions/Significance These results support a model for the peopling of the New World in which Amerind ancestors diverged from the Asian gene pool prior to 40,000 years ago and experienced a gradual population expansion as they moved into Beringia. After a long period of little change in population size in greater Beringia, Amerinds rapidly expanded into the Americas ≈15,000 years ago either through an interior ice-free corridor or along the coast. This rapid colonization of the New World was achieved by a founder group with an effective population size of ≈1,000–5,400 individuals. Our model presents a detailed scenario for the timing and scale of the initial migration to the Americas, substantially refines the estimate of New World founders, and provides a unified theory for testing with future datasets and analytic methods. PMID:18270583

Phylogeographic Reconstruction of African Yellow Fever Virus Isolates Indicates Recent Simultaneous Dispersal into East and West Africa

PubMed Central

Beck, Andrew; Guzman, Hilda; Li, Li; Ellis, Brett; Tesh, Robert B.; Barrett, Alan D. T.

2013-01-01

Yellow fever virus (YFV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that is a major public health problem in tropical areas of Africa and South America. There have been detailed studies on YFV ecology in West Africa and South America, but current understanding of YFV circulation on the African continent is incomplete. This inadequacy is especially notable for East and Central Africa, for which the unpredictability of human outbreaks is compounded by limitations in both historical and present surveillance efforts. Sparse availability of nucleotide sequence data makes it difficult to investigate the dispersal of YFV in these regions of the continent. To remedy this, we constructed Bayesian phylogenetic and geographic analyses utilizing 49 partial genomic sequences to infer the structure of YFV divergence across the known range of the virus on the African continent. Relaxed clock analysis demonstrated evidence for simultaneous divergence of YFV into east and west lineages, a finding that differs from previous hypotheses of YFV dispersal from reservoirs located on edges of the endemic range. Using discrete and continuous geographic diffusion models, we provide detailed structure of YFV lineage diversity. Significant transition links between extant East and West African lineages are presented, implying connection between areas of known sylvatic cycling. The results of demographic modeling reinforce the existence of a stably maintained population of YFV with spillover events into human populations occurring periodically. Geographically distinct foci of circulation are reconstructed, which have significant implications for studies of YFV ecology and emergence of human disease. We propose further incorporation of Bayesian phylogeography into formal GIS analyses to augment studies of arboviral disease. PMID:23516640

Bayesian phylogeny of sucrose transporters: ancient origins, differential expansion and convergent evolution in monocots and dicots

PubMed Central

Peng, Duo; Gu, Xi; Xue, Liang-Jiao; Leebens-Mack, James H.; Tsai, Chung-Jui

2014-01-01

Sucrose transporters (SUTs) are essential for the export and efficient movement of sucrose from source leaves to sink organs in plants. The angiosperm SUT family was previously classified into three or four distinct groups, Types I, II (subgroup IIB), and III, with dicot-specific Type I and monocot-specific Type IIB functioning in phloem loading. To shed light on the underlying drivers of SUT evolution, Bayesian phylogenetic inference was undertaken using 41 sequenced plant genomes, including seven basal lineages at key evolutionary junctures. Our analysis supports four phylogenetically and structurally distinct SUT subfamilies, originating from two ancient groups (AG1 and AG2) that diverged early during terrestrial colonization. In both AG1 and AG2, multiple intron acquisition events in the progenitor vascular plant established the gene structures of modern SUTs. Tonoplastic Type III and plasmalemmal Type II represent evolutionarily conserved descendants of AG1 and AG2, respectively. Type I and Type IIB were previously thought to evolve after the dicot-monocot split. We show, however, that divergence of Type I from Type III SUT predated basal angiosperms, likely associated with evolution of vascular cambium and phloem transport. Type I SUT was subsequently lost in monocots along with vascular cambium, and independent evolution of Type IIB coincided with modified monocot vasculature. Both Type I and Type IIB underwent lineage-specific expansion. In multiple unrelated taxa, the newly-derived SUTs exhibit biased expression in reproductive tissues, suggesting a functional link between phloem loading and reproductive fitness. Convergent evolution of Type I and Type IIB for SUT function in phloem loading and reproductive organs supports the idea that differential vascular development in dicots and monocots is a strong driver for SUT family evolution in angiosperms. PMID:25429293

The roles of history and ecology in chloroplast phylogeographic patterns of the bird-dispersed plant parasite Phoradendron californicum (Viscaceae) in the Sonoran Desert.

PubMed

Lira-Noriega, Andrés; Toro-Núñez, Oscar; Oaks, Jamie R; Mort, Mark E

2015-01-01

• A recurrent explanation for phylogeographic discontinuities in the Baja California Peninsula and the Sonoran Desert Region has been the association of vicariant events with Pliocene and Pleistocene seaway breaks. Nevertheless, despite its relevance for plant dispersal, other explanations such as ecological and paleoclimatic factors have received little attention. Here, we analyzed the role of several of these factors to describe the phylogeographic patterns of the desert mistletoe, Phoradendron californicum.• Using noncoding chloroplast regions, we assess the marginal probability of 19 a priori hypotheses related to geological and ecological factors to predict the cpDNA variation in P. californicum using a Bayesian coalescent framework. Complementarily, we used the macrofossil record and niche model projections on Last Glacial Maximum climatic conditions for hosts, mistletoe, and a bird specialist to interpret phylogeographic patterns.• Genealogical reconstructions revealed five clades, which suggest a combination of cryptic divergence, long-distance seed dispersal, and isolating postdivergence events. Bayesian hypothesis test favored a series of Pliocene and Pleistocene geological events related to the formation of the Baja California Peninsula and seaways across the peninsula as the most supported explanation for this genealogical pattern. However, age estimates, niche projections, and fossil records show dynamic host-mistletoe interactions and evidence of host races, indicating that ecological and geological factors have been interacting during the formation and structuring of phylogeographic divergence.• Variation in cpDNA across the species range results from the interplay of vicariant events, past climatic oscillations, and more dynamic factors related to ecological processes at finer temporal and spatial scales. © 2015 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

Deep divergence and structure in the Tropical Oceanic Pacific: a multilocus phylogeography of a widespread gekkonid lizard (Squamata: Gekkonidae: Gehyra oceanica)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tonione, Maria A.; Fisher, Robert N.; Zhu, Catherine; Moritz, Craig

2016-01-01

Aim The islands of the Tropical Oceanic Pacific (TOP) host both local radiations and widespread, colonizing species. The few phylogeographical analyses of widespread species often point to recent human-aided expansions through the Pacific, suggesting that the communities are recently assembled. Here we apply multilocus data to infer biogeographical history of the gekkonid lizard, Gehyra oceanica, which is widespread, but for which prior analyses suggested a pre-human history and in situ diversification. Location Tropical Oceanic Pacific. Methods We generated a data set including mtDNA and diagnostic SNPs for 173 individuals of G. oceanica spanning Micronesia, Melanesia, and Polynesia. For a subset of these individuals, we also sequenced nuclear loci. From these data, we performed maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference to reveal major clades. We also performed Bayesian clustering analyses and coalescence–based species delimitation tests to infer the number of species in this area. Results We found evidence for six independent evolutionary lineages (candidate species) within G. oceanica that diverged between the Pliocene and the early Pleistocene, with high diversity through northern Melanesia, and pairing of northern Melanesian endemic taxa with widespread lineages across Micronesia and Polynesia. Main conclusions The islands of northern Melanesia not only have unrecognized diversity, but also were the source of independent expansions of lineages through the more remote northern and eastern Pacific. These results highlight the very different evolutionary histories of island faunas on remote archipelagos versus those across Melanesia and point to the need for more intensive studies of fauna within Melanesia if we are to understand the evolution of diversity across the tropical Pacific.

Comparative phylogeography highlights the double-edged sword of climate change faced by arctic- and alpine-adapted mammals.

PubMed

Lanier, Hayley C; Gunderson, Aren M; Weksler, Marcelo; Fedorov, Vadim B; Olson, Link E

2015-01-01

Recent studies suggest that alpine and arctic organisms may have distinctly different phylogeographic histories from temperate or tropical taxa, with recent range contraction into interglacial refugia as opposed to post-glacial expansion out of refugia. We use a combination of phylogeographic inference, demographic reconstructions, and hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation to test for phylodemographic concordance among five species of alpine-adapted small mammals in eastern Beringia. These species (Collared Pikas, Hoary Marmots, Brown Lemmings, Arctic Ground Squirrels, and Singing Voles) vary in specificity to alpine and boreal-tundra habitat but share commonalities (e.g., cold tolerance and nunatak survival) that might result in concordant responses to Pleistocene glaciations. All five species contain a similar phylogeographic disjunction separating eastern and Beringian lineages, which we show to be the result of simultaneous divergence. Genetic diversity is similar within each haplogroup for each species, and there is no support for a post-Pleistocene population expansion in eastern lineages relative to those from Beringia. Bayesian skyline plots for four of the five species do not support Pleistocene population contraction. Brown Lemmings show evidence of late Quaternary demographic expansion without subsequent population decline. The Wrangell-St. Elias region of eastern Alaska appears to be an important zone of recent secondary contact for nearctic alpine mammals. Despite differences in natural history and ecology, similar phylogeographic histories are supported for all species, suggesting that these, and likely other, alpine- and arctic-adapted taxa are already experiencing population and/or range declines that are likely to synergistically accelerate in the face of rapid climate change. Climate change may therefore be acting as a double-edged sword that erodes genetic diversity within populations but promotes divergence and the generation of biodiversity.

Plastid phylogenomics of the cool-season grass subfamily: clarification of relationships among early-diverging tribes

PubMed Central

Saarela, Jeffery M.; Wysocki, William P.; Barrett, Craig F.; Soreng, Robert J.; Davis, Jerrold I.; Clark, Lynn G.; Kelchner, Scot A.; Pires, J. Chris; Edger, Patrick P.; Mayfield, Dustin R.; Duvall, Melvin R.

2015-01-01

Whole plastid genomes are being sequenced rapidly from across the green plant tree of life, and phylogenetic analyses of these are increasing resolution and support for relationships that have varied among or been unresolved in earlier single- and multi-gene studies. Pooideae, the cool-season grass lineage, is the largest of the 12 grass subfamilies and includes important temperate cereals, turf grasses and forage species. Although numerous studies of the phylogeny of the subfamily have been undertaken, relationships among some ‘early-diverging’ tribes conflict among studies, and some relationships among subtribes of Poeae have not yet been resolved. To address these issues, we newly sequenced 25 whole plastomes, which showed rearrangements typical of Poaceae. These plastomes represent 9 tribes and 11 subtribes of Pooideae, and were analysed with 20 existing plastomes for the subfamily. Maximum likelihood (ML), maximum parsimony (MP) and Bayesian inference (BI) robustly resolve most deep relationships in the subfamily. Complete plastome data provide increased nodal support compared with protein-coding data alone at nodes that are not maximally supported. Following the divergence of Brachyelytrum, Phaenospermateae, Brylkinieae–Meliceae and Ampelodesmeae–Stipeae are the successive sister groups of the rest of the subfamily. Ampelodesmeae are nested within Stipeae in the plastome trees, consistent with its hybrid origin between a phaenospermatoid and a stipoid grass (the maternal parent). The core Pooideae are strongly supported and include Brachypodieae, a Bromeae–Triticeae clade and Poeae. Within Poeae, a novel sister group relationship between Phalaridinae and Torreyochloinae is found, and the relative branching order of this clade and Aveninae, with respect to an Agrostidinae–Brizinae clade, are discordant between MP and ML/BI trees. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses strongly support Airinae and Holcinae as the successive sister groups of a Dactylidinae–Loliinae clade. PMID:25940204

Comparative Phylogeography Highlights the Double-Edged Sword of Climate Change Faced by Arctic- and Alpine-Adapted Mammals

PubMed Central

Lanier, Hayley C.; Gunderson, Aren M.; Weksler, Marcelo; Fedorov, Vadim B.; Olson, Link E.

2015-01-01

Recent studies suggest that alpine and arctic organisms may have distinctly different phylogeographic histories from temperate or tropical taxa, with recent range contraction into interglacial refugia as opposed to post-glacial expansion out of refugia. We use a combination of phylogeographic inference, demographic reconstructions, and hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation to test for phylodemographic concordance among five species of alpine-adapted small mammals in eastern Beringia. These species (Collared Pikas, Hoary Marmots, Brown Lemmings, Arctic Ground Squirrels, and Singing Voles) vary in specificity to alpine and boreal-tundra habitat but share commonalities (e.g., cold tolerance and nunatak survival) that might result in concordant responses to Pleistocene glaciations. All five species contain a similar phylogeographic disjunction separating eastern and Beringian lineages, which we show to be the result of simultaneous divergence. Genetic diversity is similar within each haplogroup for each species, and there is no support for a post-Pleistocene population expansion in eastern lineages relative to those from Beringia. Bayesian skyline plots for four of the five species do not support Pleistocene population contraction. Brown Lemmings show evidence of late Quaternary demographic expansion without subsequent population decline. The Wrangell-St. Elias region of eastern Alaska appears to be an important zone of recent secondary contact for nearctic alpine mammals. Despite differences in natural history and ecology, similar phylogeographic histories are supported for all species, suggesting that these, and likely other, alpine- and arctic-adapted taxa are already experiencing population and/or range declines that are likely to synergistically accelerate in the face of rapid climate change. Climate change may therefore be acting as a double-edged sword that erodes genetic diversity within populations but promotes divergence and the generation of biodiversity. PMID:25734275

Overcoming deep roots, fast rates, and short internodes to resolve the ancient rapid radiation of eupolypod II ferns.

PubMed

Rothfels, Carl J; Larsson, Anders; Kuo, Li-Yaung; Korall, Petra; Chiou, Wen-Liang; Pryer, Kathleen M

2012-05-01

Backbone relationships within the large eupolypod II clade, which includes nearly a third of extant fern species, have resisted elucidation by both molecular and morphological data. Earlier studies suggest that much of the phylogenetic intractability of this group is due to three factors: (i) a long root that reduces apparent levels of support in the ingroup; (ii) long ingroup branches subtended by a series of very short backbone internodes (the "ancient rapid radiation" model); and (iii) significantly heterogeneous lineage-specific rates of substitution. To resolve the eupolypod II phylogeny, with a particular emphasis on the backbone internodes, we assembled a data set of five plastid loci (atpA, atpB, matK, rbcL, and trnG-R) from a sample of 81 accessions selected to capture the deepest divergences in the clade. We then evaluated our phylogenetic hypothesis against potential confounding factors, including those induced by rooting, ancient rapid radiation, rate heterogeneity, and the Bayesian star-tree paradox artifact. While the strong support we inferred for the backbone relationships proved robust to these potential problems, their investigation revealed unexpected model-mediated impacts of outgroup composition, divergent effects of methods for countering the star-tree paradox artifact, and gave no support to concerns about the applicability of the unrooted model to data sets with heterogeneous lineage-specific rates of substitution. This study is among few to investigate these factors with empirical data, and the first to compare the performance of the two primary methods for overcoming the Bayesian star-tree paradox artifact. Among the significant phylogenetic results is the near-complete support along the eupolypod II backbone, the demonstrated paraphyly of Woodsiaceae as currently circumscribed, and the well-supported placement of the enigmatic genera Homalosorus, Diplaziopsis, and Woodsia.

Estimating phylogenetic relationships despite discordant gene trees across loci: the species tree of a diverse species group of feather mites (Acari: Proctophyllodidae).

PubMed

Knowles, Lacey L; Klimov, Pavel B

2011-11-01

With the increased availability of multilocus sequence data, the lack of concordance of gene trees estimated for independent loci has focused attention on both the biological processes producing the discord and the methodologies used to estimate phylogenetic relationships. What has emerged is a suite of new analytical tools for phylogenetic inference--species tree approaches. In contrast to traditional phylogenetic methods that are stymied by the idiosyncrasies of gene trees, approaches for estimating species trees explicitly take into account the cause of discord among loci and, in the process, provides a direct estimate of phylogenetic history (i.e. the history of species divergence, not divergence of specific loci). We illustrate the utility of species tree estimates with an analysis of a diverse group of feather mites, the pinnatus species group (genus Proctophyllodes). Discord among four sequenced nuclear loci is consistent with theoretical expectations, given the short time separating speciation events (as evident by short internodes relative to terminal branch lengths in the trees). Nevertheless, many of the relationships are well resolved in a Bayesian estimate of the species tree; the analysis also highlights ambiguous aspects of the phylogeny that require additional loci. The broad utility of species tree approaches is discussed, and specifically, their application to groups with high speciation rates--a history of diversification with particular prevalence in host/parasite systems where species interactions can drive rapid diversification.

Speech Enhancement, Gain, and Noise Spectrum Adaptation Using Approximate Bayesian Estimation

PubMed Central

Hao, Jiucang; Attias, Hagai; Nagarajan, Srikantan; Lee, Te-Won; Sejnowski, Terrence J.

2010-01-01

This paper presents a new approximate Bayesian estimator for enhancing a noisy speech signal. The speech model is assumed to be a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) in the log-spectral domain. This is in contrast to most current models in frequency domain. Exact signal estimation is a computationally intractable problem. We derive three approximations to enhance the efficiency of signal estimation. The Gaussian approximation transforms the log-spectral domain GMM into the frequency domain using minimal Kullback–Leiber (KL)-divergency criterion. The frequency domain Laplace method computes the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator for the spectral amplitude. Correspondingly, the log-spectral domain Laplace method computes the MAP estimator for the log-spectral amplitude. Further, the gain and noise spectrum adaptation are implemented using the expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm within the GMM under Gaussian approximation. The proposed algorithms are evaluated by applying them to enhance the speeches corrupted by the speech-shaped noise (SSN). The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithms offer improved signal-to-noise ratio, lower word recognition error rate, and less spectral distortion. PMID:20428253

Comprehensive review: Computational modelling of schizophrenia.

PubMed

Valton, Vincent; Romaniuk, Liana; Douglas Steele, J; Lawrie, Stephen; Seriès, Peggy

2017-12-01

Computational modelling has been used to address: (1) the variety of symptoms observed in schizophrenia using abstract models of behavior (e.g. Bayesian models - top-down descriptive models of psychopathology); (2) the causes of these symptoms using biologically realistic models involving abnormal neuromodulation and/or receptor imbalance (e.g. connectionist and neural networks - bottom-up realistic models of neural processes). These different levels of analysis have been used to answer different questions (i.e. understanding behavioral vs. neurobiological anomalies) about the nature of the disorder. As such, these computational studies have mostly supported diverging hypotheses of schizophrenia's pathophysiology, resulting in a literature that is not always expanding coherently. Some of these hypotheses are however ripe for revision using novel empirical evidence. Here we present a review that first synthesizes the literature of computational modelling for schizophrenia and psychotic symptoms into categories supporting the dopamine, glutamate, GABA, dysconnection and Bayesian inference hypotheses respectively. Secondly, we compare model predictions against the accumulated empirical evidence and finally we identify specific hypotheses that have been left relatively under-investigated. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Assessment of Manual Operation Time for the Manufacturing of Thin Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Display: A Bayesian Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Chien-wen

2009-01-01

During the processes of TFT-LCD manufacturing, steps like visual inspection of panel surface defects still heavily rely on manual operations. As the manual inspection time of TFT-LCD manufacturing could range from 4 hours to 1 day, the reliability of time forecasting is thus important for production planning, scheduling and customer response. This study would like to propose a practical and easy-to-implement prediction model through the approach of Bayesian networks for time estimation of manual operated procedures in TFT-LCD manufacturing. Given the lack of prior knowledge about manual operation time, algorithms of necessary path condition and expectation-maximization are used for structural learning and estimation of conditional probability distributions respectively. This study also applied Bayesian inference to evaluate the relationships between explanatory variables and manual operation time. With the empirical applications of this proposed forecasting model, approach of Bayesian networks demonstrates its practicability and prediction accountability.

Efficient Probabilistic Diagnostics for Electrical Power Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengshoel, Ole J.; Chavira, Mark; Cascio, Keith; Poll, Scott; Darwiche, Adnan; Uckun, Serdar

2008-01-01

We consider in this work the probabilistic approach to model-based diagnosis when applied to electrical power systems (EPSs). Our probabilistic approach is formally well-founded, as it based on Bayesian networks and arithmetic circuits. We investigate the diagnostic task known as fault isolation, and pay special attention to meeting two of the main challenges . model development and real-time reasoning . often associated with real-world application of model-based diagnosis technologies. To address the challenge of model development, we develop a systematic approach to representing electrical power systems as Bayesian networks, supported by an easy-to-use speci.cation language. To address the real-time reasoning challenge, we compile Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits. Arithmetic circuit evaluation supports real-time diagnosis by being predictable and fast. In essence, we introduce a high-level EPS speci.cation language from which Bayesian networks that can diagnose multiple simultaneous failures are auto-generated, and we illustrate the feasibility of using arithmetic circuits, compiled from Bayesian networks, for real-time diagnosis on real-world EPSs of interest to NASA. The experimental system is a real-world EPS, namely the Advanced Diagnostic and Prognostic Testbed (ADAPT) located at the NASA Ames Research Center. In experiments with the ADAPT Bayesian network, which currently contains 503 discrete nodes and 579 edges, we .nd high diagnostic accuracy in scenarios where one to three faults, both in components and sensors, were inserted. The time taken to compute the most probable explanation using arithmetic circuits has a small mean of 0.2625 milliseconds and standard deviation of 0.2028 milliseconds. In experiments with data from ADAPT we also show that arithmetic circuit evaluation substantially outperforms joint tree propagation and variable elimination, two alternative algorithms for diagnosis using Bayesian network inference.

Bayesian Threshold Estimation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gustafson, S. C.; Costello, C. S.; Like, E. C.; Pierce, S. J.; Shenoy, K. N.

2009-01-01

Bayesian estimation of a threshold time (hereafter simply threshold) for the receipt of impulse signals is accomplished given the following: 1) data, consisting of the number of impulses received in a time interval from zero to one and the time of the largest time impulse; 2) a model, consisting of a uniform probability density of impulse time…

Phylogeography of the wild and cultivated stimulant plant qat (Catha edulis, Celastraceae) in areas of historical cultivation.

PubMed

Tembrock, Luke R; Simmons, Mark P; Richards, Christopher M; Reeves, Patrick A; Reilley, Ann; Curto, Manuel A; Meimberg, Harald; Ngugi, Grace; Demissew, Sebsebe; Al Khulaidi, Abdul Wali; Al-Thobhani, Mansoor; Simpson, Sheron; Varisco, Daniel M

2017-04-01

Qat ( Catha edulis , Celastraceae) is a woody plant species cultivated for its stimulant alkaloids. Qat is important to the economy and culture in large regions of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Yemen. Despite the importance of this species, the wild origins and dispersal of cultivars have only been described in often contradictory historical documents. We examined the wild origins, human-mediated dispersal, and genetic divergence of cultivated qat compared to wild qat. We sampled 17 SSR markers and 1561 wild and cultivated individuals across the historical areas of qat cultivation. On the basis of genetic structure inferred using Bayesian and nonparametric methods, two centers of origin in Kenya and one in Ethiopia were found for cultivated qat. The centers of origin in Ethiopia and northeast of Mt. Kenya are the primary sources of cultivated qat genotypes. Qat cultivated in Yemen is derived from Ethiopian genotypes rather than Yemeni wild populations. Cultivated qat with a wild Kenyan origin has not spread to Ethiopia or Yemen, whereas a small minority of qat cultivated in Kenya originated in Ethiopia. Hybrid genotypes with both Ethiopian and Kenyan parentage are present in northern Kenya. Ethiopian cultivars have diverged from their wild relatives, whereas Kenyan qat has diverged less. This pattern of divergence could be caused by the extinction of the wild-source qat populations in Ethiopia due to deforestation, undersampling, and/or artificial selection for agronomically important traits. © 2017 Tembrock et al. Published by the Botanical Society of America. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons public domain license (CC0 1.0).

Nonnegative matrix factorization with the Itakura-Saito divergence: with application to music analysis.

PubMed

Févotte, Cédric; Bertin, Nancy; Durrieu, Jean-Louis

2009-03-01

This letter presents theoretical, algorithmic, and experimental results about nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) with the Itakura-Saito (IS) divergence. We describe how IS-NMF is underlaid by a well-defined statistical model of superimposed gaussian components and is equivalent to maximum likelihood estimation of variance parameters. This setting can accommodate regularization constraints on the factors through Bayesian priors. In particular, inverse-gamma and gamma Markov chain priors are considered in this work. Estimation can be carried out using a space-alternating generalized expectation-maximization (SAGE) algorithm; this leads to a novel type of NMF algorithm, whose convergence to a stationary point of the IS cost function is guaranteed. We also discuss the links between the IS divergence and other cost functions used in NMF, in particular, the Euclidean distance and the generalized Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. As such, we describe how IS-NMF can also be performed using a gradient multiplicative algorithm (a standard algorithm structure in NMF) whose convergence is observed in practice, though not proven. Finally, we report a furnished experimental comparative study of Euclidean-NMF, KL-NMF, and IS-NMF algorithms applied to the power spectrogram of a short piano sequence recorded in real conditions, with various initializations and model orders. Then we show how IS-NMF can successfully be employed for denoising and upmix (mono to stereo conversion) of an original piece of early jazz music. These experiments indicate that IS-NMF correctly captures the semantics of audio and is better suited to the representation of music signals than NMF with the usual Euclidean and KL costs.

A Variational Bayes Genomic-Enabled Prediction Model with Genotype × Environment Interaction

PubMed Central

Montesinos-López, Osval A.; Montesinos-López, Abelardo; Crossa, José; Montesinos-López, José Cricelio; Luna-Vázquez, Francisco Javier; Salinas-Ruiz, Josafhat; Herrera-Morales, José R.; Buenrostro-Mariscal, Raymundo

2017-01-01

There are Bayesian and non-Bayesian genomic models that take into account G×E interactions. However, the computational cost of implementing Bayesian models is high, and becomes almost impossible when the number of genotypes, environments, and traits is very large, while, in non-Bayesian models, there are often important and unsolved convergence problems. The variational Bayes method is popular in machine learning, and, by approximating the probability distributions through optimization, it tends to be faster than Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. For this reason, in this paper, we propose a new genomic variational Bayes version of the Bayesian genomic model with G×E using half-t priors on each standard deviation (SD) term to guarantee highly noninformative and posterior inferences that are not sensitive to the choice of hyper-parameters. We show the complete theoretical derivation of the full conditional and the variational posterior distributions, and their implementations. We used eight experimental genomic maize and wheat data sets to illustrate the new proposed variational Bayes approximation, and compared its predictions and implementation time with a standard Bayesian genomic model with G×E. Results indicated that prediction accuracies are slightly higher in the standard Bayesian model with G×E than in its variational counterpart, but, in terms of computation time, the variational Bayes genomic model with G×E is, in general, 10 times faster than the conventional Bayesian genomic model with G×E. For this reason, the proposed model may be a useful tool for researchers who need to predict and select genotypes in several environments. PMID:28391241

A Variational Bayes Genomic-Enabled Prediction Model with Genotype × Environment Interaction.

PubMed

Montesinos-López, Osval A; Montesinos-López, Abelardo; Crossa, José; Montesinos-López, José Cricelio; Luna-Vázquez, Francisco Javier; Salinas-Ruiz, Josafhat; Herrera-Morales, José R; Buenrostro-Mariscal, Raymundo

2017-06-07

There are Bayesian and non-Bayesian genomic models that take into account G×E interactions. However, the computational cost of implementing Bayesian models is high, and becomes almost impossible when the number of genotypes, environments, and traits is very large, while, in non-Bayesian models, there are often important and unsolved convergence problems. The variational Bayes method is popular in machine learning, and, by approximating the probability distributions through optimization, it tends to be faster than Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. For this reason, in this paper, we propose a new genomic variational Bayes version of the Bayesian genomic model with G×E using half-t priors on each standard deviation (SD) term to guarantee highly noninformative and posterior inferences that are not sensitive to the choice of hyper-parameters. We show the complete theoretical derivation of the full conditional and the variational posterior distributions, and their implementations. We used eight experimental genomic maize and wheat data sets to illustrate the new proposed variational Bayes approximation, and compared its predictions and implementation time with a standard Bayesian genomic model with G×E. Results indicated that prediction accuracies are slightly higher in the standard Bayesian model with G×E than in its variational counterpart, but, in terms of computation time, the variational Bayes genomic model with G×E is, in general, 10 times faster than the conventional Bayesian genomic model with G×E. For this reason, the proposed model may be a useful tool for researchers who need to predict and select genotypes in several environments. Copyright © 2017 Montesinos-López et al.

Limited, episodic diversification and contrasting phylogeography in a New Zealand cicada radiation.

PubMed

Marshall, David C; Hill, Kathy B R; Marske, Katharine A; Chambers, Colleen; Buckley, Thomas R; Simon, Chris

2012-09-11

The New Zealand (NZ) cicada fauna contains two co-distributed lineages that independently colonized the isolated continental fragment in the Miocene. One extensively studied lineage includes 90% of the extant species (Kikihia + Maoricicada + Rhodopsalta; ca 51 spp.), while the other contains just four extant species (Amphipsalta - 3 spp. + Notopsalta - 1 sp.) and has been little studied. We examined mitochondrial and nuclear-gene phylogenies and phylogeography, Bayesian relaxed-clock divergence timing (incorporating literature-based uncertainty of molecular clock estimates) and ecological niche models of the species from the smaller radiation. Mitochondrial and nuclear-gene trees supported the monophyly of Amphipsalta. Most interspecific diversification within Amphipsalta-Notopsalta occurred from the mid-Miocene to the Pliocene. However, interspecific divergence time estimates had large confidence intervals and were highly dependent on the assumed tree prior, and comparisons of uncorrected and patristic distances suggested difficulty in estimation of branch lengths. In contrast, intraspecific divergence times varied little across analyses, and all appear to have occurred during the Pleistocene. Two large-bodied forest taxa (A. cingulata, A. zelandica) showed minimal phylogeographic structure, with intraspecific diversification dating to ca. 0.16 and 0.37 Ma, respectively. Mid-Pleistocene-age phylogeographic structure was found within two smaller-bodied species (A. strepitans - 1.16 Ma, N. sericea - 1.36 Ma] inhabiting dry open habitats. Branches separating independently evolving species were long compared to intraspecific branches. Ecological niche models hindcast to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) matched expectations from the genetic datasets for A. zelandica and A. strepitans, suggesting that the range of A. zelandica was greatly reduced while A. strepitans refugia were more extensive. However, no LGM habitat could be reconstructed for A. cingulata and N. sericea, suggesting survival in microhabitats not detectable with our downscaled climate data. Unlike the large and continuous diversification exhibited by the Kikihia-Maoricicada-Rhodopsalta clade, the contemporaneous Amphipsalta-Notopsalta lineage contains four comparatively old (early branching) species that show only recent diversification. This indicates either a long period of stasis with no speciation, or one or more bouts of extinction that have pruned the radiation. Within Amphipsalta-Notopsalta, greater population structure is found in dry-open-habitat species versus forest specialists. We attribute this difference to the fact that NZ lowland forests were repeatedly reduced in extent during glacial periods, while steep, open habitats likely became more available during late Pleistocene uplift.

Phylogeny and biogeography of the amphi-Pacific genus Aphananthe

PubMed Central

Yang, Mei-Qing; Li, De-Zhu; Wen, Jun; Yi, Ting-Shuang

2017-01-01

Aphananthe is a small genus of five species showing an intriguing amphi-Pacific distribution in eastern, southern and southeastern Asia, Australia, and Mexico, also with one species in Madagascar. The phylogenetic relationships of Aphananthe were reconstructed with two nuclear (ITS & ETS) and two plastid (psbA-trnH & trnL-trnF) regions. Clade divergence times were estimated with a Bayesian approach, and the ancestral areas were inferred using the dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis and Bayesian Binary MCMC analyses. Aphananthe was supported to be monophyletic, with the eastern Asian A. aspera resolved as sister to a clade of the remaining four species. Aphananthe was inferred to have originated in the Late Cretaceous (71.5 mya, with 95% HPD: 66.6–81.3 mya), and the crown age of the genus was dated to be in the early Miocene (19.1 mya, with 95% HPD: 12.4–28.9 mya). The fossil record indicates that Aphananthe was present in the high latitude thermophilic forests in the early Tertiary, and experienced extinctions from the middle Tertiary onwards. Aphananthe originated in Europe based on the inference that included fossil and extant species, but eastern Asia was estimated to be the ancestral area of the clade of the extant species of Aphananthe. Both the West Gondwanan vicariance hypothesis and the boreotropics hypothesis could be excluded as explanation for its amphi-Pacific distribution. Long-distance dispersals out of eastern Asia into North America, southern and southeastern Asia and Australia, and Madagascar during the Miocene account for its wide intercontinental disjunct distribution. PMID:28170425

Reconstructing the history of a fragmented and heavily exploited red deer population using ancient and contemporary DNA.

PubMed

Rosvold, Jørgen; Røed, Knut H; Hufthammer, Anne Karin; Andersen, Reidar; Stenøien, Hans K

2012-09-26

Red deer (Cervus elaphus) have been an important human resource for millennia, experiencing intensive human influence through habitat alterations, hunting and translocation of animals. In this study we investigate a time series of ancient and contemporary DNA from Norwegian red deer spanning about 7,000 years. Our main aim was to investigate how increasing agricultural land use, hunting pressure and possibly human mediated translocation of animals have affected the genetic diversity on a long-term scale. We obtained mtDNA (D-loop) sequences from 73 ancient specimens. These show higher genetic diversity in ancient compared to extant samples, with the highest diversity preceding the onset of agricultural intensification in the Early Iron Age. Using standard diversity indices, Bayesian skyline plot and approximate Bayesian computation, we detected a population reduction which was more prolonged than, but not as severe as, historic documents indicate. There are signs of substantial changes in haplotype frequencies primarily due to loss of haplotypes through genetic drift. There is no indication of human mediated translocations into the Norwegian population. All the Norwegian sequences show a western European origin, from which the Norwegian lineage diverged approximately 15,000 years ago. Our results provide direct insight into the effects of increasing habitat fragmentation and human hunting pressure on genetic diversity and structure of red deer populations. They also shed light on the northward post-glacial colonisation process of red deer in Europe and suggest increased precision in inferring past demographic events when including both ancient and contemporary DNA.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ng, B

This survey gives an overview of popular generative models used in the modeling of stochastic temporal systems. In particular, this survey is organized into two parts. The first part discusses the discrete-time representations of dynamic Bayesian networks and dynamic relational probabilistic models, while the second part discusses the continuous-time representation of continuous-time Bayesian networks.

Peripatric speciation in an endemic Macaronesian plant after recent divergence from a widespread relative.

PubMed

Valtueña, Francisco J; Rodríguez-Riaño, Tomás; López, Josefa; Mayo, Carlos; Ortega-Olivencia, Ana

2017-01-01

The Macaronesian Scrophularia lowei is hypothesized to have arisen from the widespread S. arguta on the basis of several phylogenetic studies of the genus, but sampling has been limited. Although these two annual species are morphologically distinct, the origin of S. lowei is unclear because genetic studies focused on this Macaronesian species are lacking. We studied 5 S. lowei and 25 S. arguta populations to determine the relationship of both species and to infer the geographical origin of S. lowei. The timing of S. lowei divergence and differentiation was inferred by dating analysis of the ITS region. A phylogenetic analysis of two nuclear (ITS and ETS) and two chloroplast (psbJ-petA and psbA-trnH) DNA regions was performed to study the relationship between the two species, and genetic differentiation was analysed by AMOVA. Haplotype network construction and Bayesian phylogeographic analysis were conducted using chloroplast DNA regions and a spatial clustering analysis was carried out on a combined dataset of all studied regions. Our results indicate that both species constitute a well-supported clade that diverged in the Miocene and differentiated in the Late Miocene-Pleistocene. Although S. lowei constitutes a well-supported clade according to nDNA, cpDNA revealed a close relationship between S. lowei and western Canarian S. arguta, a finding supported by the spatial clustering analysis. Both species have strong population structure, with most genetic variability explained by inter-population differences. Our study therefore supports a recent peripatric speciation of S. lowei-a taxon that differs morphologically and genetically at the nDNA level from its closest relative, S. arguta, but not according to cpDNA, from the closest Macaronesian populations of that species. In addition, a recent dispersal of S. arguta to Madeira from Canary Islands or Selvagens Islands and a rapid morphological differentiation after the colonization to generate S. lowei is the most likely hypothesis to explain the origin of the last taxon.

Peripatric speciation in an endemic Macaronesian plant after recent divergence from a widespread relative

PubMed Central

Rodríguez-Riaño, Tomás; López, Josefa; Mayo, Carlos; Ortega-Olivencia, Ana

2017-01-01

The Macaronesian Scrophularia lowei is hypothesized to have arisen from the widespread S. arguta on the basis of several phylogenetic studies of the genus, but sampling has been limited. Although these two annual species are morphologically distinct, the origin of S. lowei is unclear because genetic studies focused on this Macaronesian species are lacking. We studied 5 S. lowei and 25 S. arguta populations to determine the relationship of both species and to infer the geographical origin of S. lowei. The timing of S. lowei divergence and differentiation was inferred by dating analysis of the ITS region. A phylogenetic analysis of two nuclear (ITS and ETS) and two chloroplast (psbJ–petA and psbA–trnH) DNA regions was performed to study the relationship between the two species, and genetic differentiation was analysed by AMOVA. Haplotype network construction and Bayesian phylogeographic analysis were conducted using chloroplast DNA regions and a spatial clustering analysis was carried out on a combined dataset of all studied regions. Our results indicate that both species constitute a well-supported clade that diverged in the Miocene and differentiated in the Late Miocene-Pleistocene. Although S. lowei constitutes a well-supported clade according to nDNA, cpDNA revealed a close relationship between S. lowei and western Canarian S. arguta, a finding supported by the spatial clustering analysis. Both species have strong population structure, with most genetic variability explained by inter-population differences. Our study therefore supports a recent peripatric speciation of S. lowei—a taxon that differs morphologically and genetically at the nDNA level from its closest relative, S. arguta, but not according to cpDNA, from the closest Macaronesian populations of that species. In addition, a recent dispersal of S. arguta to Madeira from Canary Islands or Selvagens Islands and a rapid morphological differentiation after the colonization to generate S. lowei is the most likely hypothesis to explain the origin of the last taxon. PMID:28575081

Complete mitochondrial genomes of living and extinct pigeons revise the timing of the columbiform radiation.

PubMed

Soares, André E R; Novak, Ben J; Haile, James; Heupink, Tim H; Fjeldså, Jon; Gilbert, M Thomas P; Poinar, Hendrik; Church, George M; Shapiro, Beth

2016-10-26

Pigeons and doves (Columbiformes) are one of the oldest and most diverse extant lineages of birds. However, the nature and timing of the group's evolutionary radiation remains poorly resolved, despite recent advances in DNA sequencing and assembly and the growing database of pigeon mitochondrial genomes. One challenge has been to generate comparative data from the large number of extinct pigeon lineages, some of which are morphologically unique and therefore difficult to place in a phylogenetic context. We used ancient DNA and next generation sequencing approaches to assemble complete mitochondrial genomes for eleven pigeons, including the extinct Ryukyu wood pigeon (Columba jouyi), the thick-billed ground dove (Alopecoenas salamonis), the spotted green pigeon (Caloenas maculata), the Rodrigues solitaire (Pezophaps solitaria), and the dodo (Raphus cucullatus). We used a Bayesian approach to infer the evolutionary relationships among 24 species of living and extinct pigeons and doves. Our analyses indicate that the earliest radiation of the Columbidae crown group most likely occurred during the Oligocene, with continued divergence of major clades into the Miocene, suggesting that diversification within the Columbidae occurred more recently than has been reported previously.

Bayesian state space models for dynamic genetic network construction across multiple tissues.

PubMed

Liang, Yulan; Kelemen, Arpad

2016-08-01

Construction of gene-gene interaction networks and potential pathways is a challenging and important problem in genomic research for complex diseases while estimating the dynamic changes of the temporal correlations and non-stationarity are the keys in this process. In this paper, we develop dynamic state space models with hierarchical Bayesian settings to tackle this challenge for inferring the dynamic profiles and genetic networks associated with disease treatments. We treat both the stochastic transition matrix and the observation matrix time-variant and include temporal correlation structures in the covariance matrix estimations in the multivariate Bayesian state space models. The unevenly spaced short time courses with unseen time points are treated as hidden state variables. Hierarchical Bayesian approaches with various prior and hyper-prior models with Monte Carlo Markov Chain and Gibbs sampling algorithms are used to estimate the model parameters and the hidden state variables. We apply the proposed Hierarchical Bayesian state space models to multiple tissues (liver, skeletal muscle, and kidney) Affymetrix time course data sets following corticosteroid (CS) drug administration. Both simulation and real data analysis results show that the genomic changes over time and gene-gene interaction in response to CS treatment can be well captured by the proposed models. The proposed dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian state space modeling approaches could be expanded and applied to other large scale genomic data, such as next generation sequence (NGS) combined with real time and time varying electronic health record (EHR) for more comprehensive and robust systematic and network based analysis in order to transform big biomedical data into predictions and diagnostics for precision medicine and personalized healthcare with better decision making and patient outcomes.

Development and comparison in uncertainty assessment based Bayesian modularization method in hydrological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lu; Xu, Chong-Yu; Engeland, Kolbjørn

2013-04-01

SummaryWith respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, various regression and probabilistic approaches are used in hydrological modeling. A family of Bayesian methods, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayes' theorem, is widely used for uncertainty assessment. However, none of these approaches can well treat the impact of high flows in hydrological modeling. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization uncertainty assessment approach in which the highest streamflow observations are treated as suspect information that should not influence the inference of the main bulk of the model parameters. This study includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by our new Bayesian modularization method and standard Bayesian methods using the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions were used in combination with standard Bayesian method: the AR(1) plus Normal model independent of time (Model 1), the AR(1) plus Normal model dependent on time (Model 2) and the AR(1) plus Multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that the Bayesian modularization method provides the most accurate streamflow estimates measured by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and provide the best in uncertainty estimates for low, medium and entire flows compared to standard Bayesian methods. The study thus provides a new approach for reducing the impact of high flows on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian method.

Practical Bayesian tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granade, Christopher; Combes, Joshua; Cory, D. G.

2016-03-01

In recent years, Bayesian methods have been proposed as a solution to a wide range of issues in quantum state and process tomography. State-of-the-art Bayesian tomography solutions suffer from three problems: numerical intractability, a lack of informative prior distributions, and an inability to track time-dependent processes. Here, we address all three problems. First, we use modern statistical methods, as pioneered by Huszár and Houlsby (2012 Phys. Rev. A 85 052120) and by Ferrie (2014 New J. Phys. 16 093035), to make Bayesian tomography numerically tractable. Our approach allows for practical computation of Bayesian point and region estimators for quantum states and channels. Second, we propose the first priors on quantum states and channels that allow for including useful experimental insight. Finally, we develop a method that allows tracking of time-dependent states and estimates the drift and diffusion processes affecting a state. We provide source code and animated visual examples for our methods.

Deciphering and dating the red panda's ancestry and early adaptive radiation of Musteloidea.

PubMed

Sato, Jun J; Wolsan, Mieczyslaw; Minami, Shinji; Hosoda, Tetsuji; Sinaga, Martua H; Hiyama, Kozue; Yamaguchi, Yasunori; Suzuki, Hitoshi

2009-12-01

Few species have been of more disputed affinities than the red or lesser panda (Ailurus fulgens), an endangered endemic Southeast Asian vegetarian member of the placental mammalian order Carnivora. This peculiar carnivoran has mostly been classified with raccoons (Procyonidae) or bears (Ursidae), grouped with the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) in their own family, or considered a separate lineage of equivocal ancestry. Recent molecular studies have indicated a close affinity of the red panda to a clade of procyonids and mustelids (weasels, otters, martens, badgers, and allies), but have failed to unambiguously resolve the position of this species relative to mephitids (skunks and stink badgers). We examined the relationship of the red panda to other extant species of the carnivoran suborder Caniformia using a set of concatenated approximately 5.5-kb sequences from protein-coding exons of five nuclear genes. Bayesian, maximum likelihood, and parsimony phylogenetic analyses strongly supported the red panda as the closest living relative of a clade containing Procyonidae and Mustelidae to the exclusion of Mephitidae. These three families together with the red panda (which is classified here as a single extant species of a distinct family, Ailuridae) compose the superfamily Musteloidea, a clade strongly supported by all our phylogenetic analyses as sister to the monophyletic Pinnipedia (seals, sea lions, walruses). The approximately unbiased, Kishino-Hasegawa, and Templeton topology tests rejected (P<0.05) each of all possible alternative hypotheses about the relationships among the red panda and mephitids, procyonids, and mustelids. We also estimated divergence times for the red panda's lineage and ones of other caniform taxa, as well as the ages of the first appearance datums for the crown and total clades of musteloids and the total clades of the red panda, mephitids, procyonids, and mustelids. Bayesian relaxed molecular-clock analysis using combined information from all sampled genes yielded a approximately 42-Myr timescale to caniform evolution and provided evidence of five periods of increased diversification. The red panda's lineage and those of other extant musteloid families are estimated to have diverged during a 3-Myr interval from the mid-Early Oligocene to near the Early/Late Oligocene boundary. We present fossil evidence that extends the early adaptive radiation of the total clade of musteloids to the Eocene-Oligocene transition and also suggests Asia as a center of this radiation.

On how to avoid input and structural uncertainties corrupt the inference of hydrological parameters using a Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández, Mario R.; Francés, Félix

2015-04-01

One phase of the hydrological models implementation process, significantly contributing to the hydrological predictions uncertainty, is the calibration phase in which values of the unknown model parameters are tuned by optimizing an objective function. An unsuitable error model (e.g. Standard Least Squares or SLS) introduces noise into the estimation of the parameters. The main sources of this noise are the input errors and the hydrological model structural deficiencies. Thus, the biased calibrated parameters cause the divergence model phenomenon, where the errors variance of the (spatially and temporally) forecasted flows far exceeds the errors variance in the fitting period, and provoke the loss of part or all of the physical meaning of the modeled processes. In other words, yielding a calibrated hydrological model which works well, but not for the right reasons. Besides, an unsuitable error model yields a non-reliable predictive uncertainty assessment. Hence, with the aim of prevent all these undesirable effects, this research focuses on the Bayesian joint inference (BJI) of both the hydrological and error model parameters, considering a general additive (GA) error model that allows for correlation, non-stationarity (in variance and bias) and non-normality of model residuals. As hydrological model, it has been used a conceptual distributed model called TETIS, with a particular split structure of the effective model parameters. Bayesian inference has been performed with the aid of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm called Dream-ZS. MCMC algorithm quantifies the uncertainty of the hydrological and error model parameters by getting the joint posterior probability distribution, conditioned on the observed flows. The BJI methodology is a very powerful and reliable tool, but it must be used correctly this is, if non-stationarity in errors variance and bias is modeled, the Total Laws must be taken into account. The results of this research show that the application of BJI with a GA error model outperforms the hydrological parameters robustness (diminishing the divergence model phenomenon) and improves the reliability of the streamflow predictive distribution, in respect of the results of a bad error model as SLS. Finally, the most likely prediction in a validation period, for both BJI+GA and SLS error models shows a similar performance.

Tmax Determined Using a Bayesian Estimation Deconvolution Algorithm Applied to Bolus Tracking Perfusion Imaging: A Digital Phantom Validation Study.

PubMed

Uwano, Ikuko; Sasaki, Makoto; Kudo, Kohsuke; Boutelier, Timothé; Kameda, Hiroyuki; Mori, Futoshi; Yamashita, Fumio

2017-01-10

The Bayesian estimation algorithm improves the precision of bolus tracking perfusion imaging. However, this algorithm cannot directly calculate Tmax, the time scale widely used to identify ischemic penumbra, because Tmax is a non-physiological, artificial index that reflects the tracer arrival delay (TD) and other parameters. We calculated Tmax from the TD and mean transit time (MTT) obtained by the Bayesian algorithm and determined its accuracy in comparison with Tmax obtained by singular value decomposition (SVD) algorithms. The TD and MTT maps were generated by the Bayesian algorithm applied to digital phantoms with time-concentration curves that reflected a range of values for various perfusion metrics using a global arterial input function. Tmax was calculated from the TD and MTT using constants obtained by a linear least-squares fit to Tmax obtained from the two SVD algorithms that showed the best benchmarks in a previous study. Correlations between the Tmax values obtained by the Bayesian and SVD methods were examined. The Bayesian algorithm yielded accurate TD and MTT values relative to the true values of the digital phantom. Tmax calculated from the TD and MTT values with the least-squares fit constants showed excellent correlation (Pearson's correlation coefficient = 0.99) and agreement (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.99) with Tmax obtained from SVD algorithms. Quantitative analyses of Tmax values calculated from Bayesian-estimation algorithm-derived TD and MTT from a digital phantom correlated and agreed well with Tmax values determined using SVD algorithms.

Phylogenetic relationships and timing of diversification in gonorynchiform fishes inferred using nuclear gene DNA sequences (Teleostei: Ostariophysi).

PubMed

Near, Thomas J; Dornburg, Alex; Friedman, Matt

2014-11-01

The Gonorynchiformes are the sister lineage of the species-rich Otophysi and provide important insights into the diversification of ostariophysan fishes. Phylogenies of gonorynchiforms inferred using morphological characters and mtDNA gene sequences provide differing resolutions with regard to the sister lineage of all other gonorynchiforms (Chanos vs. Gonorynchus) and support for monophyly of the two miniaturized lineages Cromeria and Grasseichthys. In this study the phylogeny and divergence times of gonorynchiforms are investigated with DNA sequences sampled from nine nuclear genes and a published morphological character matrix. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses reveal substantial congruence among individual gene trees with inferences from eight genes placing Gonorynchus as the sister lineage to all other gonorynchiforms. Seven gene trees resolve Cromeria and Grasseichthys as a clade, supporting previous inferences using morphological characters. Phylogenies resulting from either concatenating the nuclear genes, performing a multispecies coalescent species tree analysis, or combining the morphological and nuclear gene DNA sequences resolve Gonorynchus as the living sister lineage of all other gonorynchiforms, strongly support the monophyly of Cromeria and Grasseichthys, and resolve a clade containing Parakneria, Cromeria, and Grasseichthys. The morphological dataset, which includes 13 gonorynchiform fossil taxa that range in age from Early Cretaceous to Eocene, was analyzed in combination with DNA sequences from the nine nuclear genes and a relaxed molecular clock to estimate times of evolutionary divergence. This "tip dating" strategy accommodates uncertainty in the phylogenetic resolution of fossil taxa that provide calibration information in the relaxed molecular clock analysis. The estimated age of the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of living gonorynchiforms is slightly older than estimates from previous node dating efforts, but the molecular tip dating estimated ages of Kneriinae (Kneria, Parakneria, Cromeria, and Grasseichthys) and the two paedomorphic lineages, Cromeria and Grasseichthys, are considerably younger. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Expectation propagation for large scale Bayesian inference of non-linear molecular networks from perturbation data.

PubMed

Narimani, Zahra; Beigy, Hamid; Ahmad, Ashar; Masoudi-Nejad, Ali; Fröhlich, Holger

2017-01-01

Inferring the structure of molecular networks from time series protein or gene expression data provides valuable information about the complex biological processes of the cell. Causal network structure inference has been approached using different methods in the past. Most causal network inference techniques, such as Dynamic Bayesian Networks and ordinary differential equations, are limited by their computational complexity and thus make large scale inference infeasible. This is specifically true if a Bayesian framework is applied in order to deal with the unavoidable uncertainty about the correct model. We devise a novel Bayesian network reverse engineering approach using ordinary differential equations with the ability to include non-linearity. Besides modeling arbitrary, possibly combinatorial and time dependent perturbations with unknown targets, one of our main contributions is the use of Expectation Propagation, an algorithm for approximate Bayesian inference over large scale network structures in short computation time. We further explore the possibility of integrating prior knowledge into network inference. We evaluate the proposed model on DREAM4 and DREAM8 data and find it competitive against several state-of-the-art existing network inference methods.

Genetic diversity, endemism and phylogeny of lampreys within the genus Lampetra sensu stricto (Petromyzontiformes: Petromyzontidae) in western North America.

PubMed

Boguski, D A; Reid, S B; Goodman, D H; Docker, M F

2012-11-01

Phylogenetic structure of four Lampetra species from the Pacific drainage of North America (western brook lamprey Lampetra richardsoni, Pacific brook lamprey Lampetra pacifica, river lamprey Lampetra ayresii and Kern brook lamprey Lampetra hubbsi) and unidentified Lampetra specimens (referred to as Lampetra sp.) from 36 locations was estimated using the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene. Maximum parsimony and Bayesian inferences did not correspond with any taxonomic scheme proposed to date. Rather, although L. richardsoni (from Alaska to California) and L. ayresii (from British Columbia to California) together constituted a well-supported clade distinct from several genetically divergent Lampetra populations in Oregon and California, these two species were not reciprocally monophyletic. The genetically divergent populations included L. pacifica (from the Columbia River basin) and L. hubbsi (from the Kern River basin) and four Lampetra sp. populations in Oregon (Siuslaw River and Fourmile Creek) and California (Kelsey and Mark West Creeks). These four Lampetra sp. populations showed genetic divergence between 2.3 and 5.7% from any known species (and up to 8.0% from each other), and may represent morphologically cryptic and thus previously undescribed species. A fifth population (from Paynes Creek, California) may represent a range extension of L. hubbsi into the Upper Sacramento River. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2012 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Small Sample Properties of Bayesian Multivariate Autoregressive Time Series Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Price, Larry R.

2012-01-01

The aim of this study was to compare the small sample (N = 1, 3, 5, 10, 15) performance of a Bayesian multivariate vector autoregressive (BVAR-SEM) time series model relative to frequentist power and parameter estimation bias. A multivariate autoregressive model was developed based on correlated autoregressive time series vectors of varying…

Phylogenetic relationships in Myrceugenia (Myrtaceae) based on plastid and nuclear DNA sequences

PubMed Central

Murillo-A., José; Ruiz-P., Eduardo; Landrum, Leslie R.; Stuessy, Tod F.; Barfuss, Michael H.J.

2012-01-01

Myrceugenia is a genus endemic to South America with a disjunct distribution: 12 species occurring mainly in central Chile and approximately 25 in southeastern Brazil. Relationships are reconstructed within Myrceugenia from four plastid markers (partial trnK-matK, rpl32-trnL, trnQ-5′rps16 and rpl16) and two ribosomal nuclear regions (ETS and ITS) using maximum parsimony and Bayesian analyses. Relationships inferred previously from morphological data are not completely consistent with those from molecular data. All molecular analyses support the hypothesis that Myrceugenia is monophyletic, except for M. fernadeziana that falls outside the genus. Chilean species and Brazilian species form two separate lineages. Chilean species form three early diverging clades, whereas Brazilian species are a strongly supported monophyletic group in a terminal position. Least average evolutionary divergence, low resolution, short branches, and high species diversity found in the Brazilian clade suggest rapid radiation. Geographical distributions and phylogenetic reconstructions suggest that extant Myrceugenia species arose in northern Chile followed by colonization southward and finally to the Juan Fernández Islands and southeastern Brazil. PMID:22155422

Inferring species divergence times using pairwise sequential Markovian coalescent modelling and low-coverage genomic data.

PubMed

Cahill, James A; Soares, André E R; Green, Richard E; Shapiro, Beth

2016-07-19

Understanding when species diverged aids in identifying the drivers of speciation, but the end of gene flow between populations can be difficult to ascertain from genetic data. We explore the use of pairwise sequential Markovian coalescent (PSMC) modelling to infer the timing of divergence between species and populations. PSMC plots generated using artificial hybrid genomes show rapid increases in effective population size at the time when the two parent lineages diverge, and this approach has been used previously to infer divergence between human lineages. We show that, even without high coverage or phased input data, PSMC can detect the end of significant gene flow between populations by comparing the PSMC output from artificial hybrids to the output of simulations with known demographic histories. We then apply PSMC to detect divergence times among lineages within two real datasets: great apes and bears within the genus Ursus Our results confirm most previously proposed divergence times for these lineages, and suggest that gene flow between recently diverged lineages may have been common among bears and great apes, including up to one million years of continued gene flow between chimpanzees and bonobos after the formation of the Congo River.This article is part of the themed issue 'Dating species divergences using rocks and clocks'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data.

PubMed

Guo, Xuan; Liu, Bing; Chen, Le; Chen, Guantao; Pan, Yi; Zhang, Jing

2016-01-01

This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM), Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM), and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM), and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

Mitochondrial Analysis of the Most Basal Canid Reveals Deep Divergence between Eastern and Western North American Gray Foxes (Urocyon spp.) and Ancient Roots in Pleistocene California.

PubMed

Goddard, Natalie S; Statham, Mark J; Sacks, Benjamin N

2015-01-01

Pleistocene aridification in central North America caused many temperate forest-associated vertebrates to split into eastern and western lineages. Such divisions can be cryptic when Holocene expansions have closed the gaps between once-disjunct ranges or when local morphological variation obscures deeper regional divergences. We investigated such cryptic divergence in the gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus), the most basal extant canid in the world. We also investigated the phylogeography of this species and its diminutive relative, the island fox (U. littoralis), in California. The California Floristic Province was a significant source of Pleistocene diversification for a wide range of taxa and, we hypothesized, for the gray fox as well. Alternatively, gray foxes in California potentially reflected a recent Holocene expansion from further south. We sequenced mitochondrial DNA from 169 gray foxes from the southeastern and southwestern United States and 11 island foxes from three of the Channel Islands. We estimated a 1.3% sequence divergence in the cytochrome b gene between eastern and western foxes and used coalescent simulations to date the divergence to approximately 500,000 years before present (YBP), which is comparable to that between recognized sister species within the Canidae. Gray fox samples collected from throughout California exhibited high haplotype diversity, phylogeographic structure, and genetic signatures of a late-Holocene population decline. Bayesian skyline analysis also indicated an earlier population increase dating to the early Wisconsin glaciation (~70,000 YBP) and a root height extending back to the previous interglacial (~100,000 YBP). Together these findings support California's role as a long-term Pleistocene refugium for western Urocyon. Lastly, based both on our results and re-interpretation of those of another study, we conclude that island foxes of the Channel Islands trace their origins to at least 3 distinct female founders from the mainland rather than to a single matriline, as previously suggested.

Mitochondrial Analysis of the Most Basal Canid Reveals Deep Divergence between Eastern and Western North American Gray Foxes (Urocyon spp.) and Ancient Roots in Pleistocene California

PubMed Central

Goddard, Natalie S.; Statham, Mark J.; Sacks, Benjamin N.

2015-01-01

Pleistocene aridification in central North America caused many temperate forest-associated vertebrates to split into eastern and western lineages. Such divisions can be cryptic when Holocene expansions have closed the gaps between once-disjunct ranges or when local morphological variation obscures deeper regional divergences. We investigated such cryptic divergence in the gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus), the most basal extant canid in the world. We also investigated the phylogeography of this species and its diminutive relative, the island fox (U. littoralis), in California. The California Floristic Province was a significant source of Pleistocene diversification for a wide range of taxa and, we hypothesized, for the gray fox as well. Alternatively, gray foxes in California potentially reflected a recent Holocene expansion from further south. We sequenced mitochondrial DNA from 169 gray foxes from the southeastern and southwestern United States and 11 island foxes from three of the Channel Islands. We estimated a 1.3% sequence divergence in the cytochrome b gene between eastern and western foxes and used coalescent simulations to date the divergence to approximately 500,000 years before present (YBP), which is comparable to that between recognized sister species within the Canidae. Gray fox samples collected from throughout California exhibited high haplotype diversity, phylogeographic structure, and genetic signatures of a late-Holocene population decline. Bayesian skyline analysis also indicated an earlier population increase dating to the early Wisconsin glaciation (~70,000 YBP) and a root height extending back to the previous interglacial (~100,000 YBP). Together these findings support California’s role as a long-term Pleistocene refugium for western Urocyon. Lastly, based both on our results and re-interpretation of those of another study, we conclude that island foxes of the Channel Islands trace their origins to at least 3 distinct female founders from the mainland rather than to a single matriline, as previously suggested. PMID:26288066

Peripatric speciation of an endemic species driven by Pleistocene climate change: The case of the Mexican prairie dog (Cynomys mexicanus).

PubMed

Castellanos-Morales, Gabriela; Gámez, Niza; Castillo-Gámez, Reyna A; Eguiarte, Luis E

2016-01-01

The hypothesis that endemic species could have originated by the isolation and divergence of peripheral populations of widespread species can be tested through the use of ecological niche models (ENMs) and statistical phylogeography. The joint use of these tools provides complementary perspectives on historical dynamics and allows testing hypotheses regarding the origin of endemic taxa. We used this approach to infer the historical processes that have influenced the origin of a species endemic to the Mexican Plateau (Cynomys mexicanus) and its divergence from a widespread ancestor (Cynomys ludovicianus), and to test whether this endemic species originated through peripatric speciation. We obtained genetic data for 295 individuals for two species of black-tailed prairie dogs (C. ludovicianus and C. mexicanus). Genetic data consisted of mitochondrial DNA sequences (cytochrome b and control region), and 10 nuclear microsatellite loci. We estimated dates of divergence between species and between lineages within each species and performed ecological niche modelling (Present, Last Glacial Maximum and Last Interglacial) to determine changes in the distribution range of both species during the Pleistocene. Finally, we used Bayesian inference methods (DIYABC) to test different hypotheses regarding the divergence and demographic history of these species. Data supported the hypothesis of the origin of C. mexicanus from a peripheral population isolated during the Pleistocene [∼230,000 years ago (0.1-0.43 Ma 95% HPD)], with a Pleistocene-Holocene (∼9,000-11,000 years ago) population expansion (∼10-fold increase in population size). We identified the presence of two possible refugia in the southern area of the distribution range of C. ludovicianus and another, consistent with the distribution range of C. mexicanus. Our analyses suggest that Pleistocene climate change had a strong impact in the distribution of these species, promoting peripatric speciation for the origin of C. mexicanus and lineage divergence within C. ludovicianus. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A FAST BAYESIAN METHOD FOR UPDATING AND FORECASTING HOURLY OZONE LEVELS

EPA Science Inventory

A Bayesian hierarchical space-time model is proposed by combining information from real-time ambient AIRNow air monitoring data, and output from a computer simulation model known as the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (Eta-CMAQ) forecast model. A model validation analysis shows...

Multiple Invasions into Freshwater by Pufferfishes (Teleostei: Tetraodontidae): A Mitogenomic Perspective

PubMed Central

Yamanoue, Yusuke; Miya, Masaki; Doi, Hiroyuki; Mabuchi, Kohji; Sakai, Harumi; Nishida, Mutsumi

2011-01-01

Pufferfishes of the Family Tetraodontidae are the most speciose group in the Order Tetraodontiformes and mainly inhabit coastal waters along continents. Although no members of other tetraodontiform families have fully discarded their marine lives, approximately 30 tetraodontid species spend their entire lives in freshwaters in disjunct tropical regions of South America, Central Africa, and Southeast Asia. To investigate the interrelationships of tetraodontid pufferfishes and thereby elucidate the evolutionary origins of their freshwater habitats, we performed phylogenetic analysis based on whole mitochondrial genome sequences from 50 tetraodontid species and closely related species (including 31 newly determined sequences). The resulting phylogenies reveal that the family is composed of four major lineages and that freshwater species from the different continents are independently nested in two of the four lineages. A monophyletic origin of the use of freshwater habitats was statistically rejected, and ancestral habitat reconstruction on the resulting tree demonstrates that tetraodontids independently entered freshwater habitats in different continents at least three times. Relaxed molecular-clock Bayesian divergence time estimation suggests that the timing of these invasions differs between continents, occurring at 0–10 million years ago (MA) in South America, 17–38 MA in Central Africa, and 48–78 MA in Southeast Asia. These timings are congruent with geological events that could facilitate adaptation to freshwater habitats in each continent. PMID:21364898

Automated Bayesian model development for frequency detection in biological time series.

PubMed

Granqvist, Emma; Oldroyd, Giles E D; Morris, Richard J

2011-06-24

A first step in building a mathematical model of a biological system is often the analysis of the temporal behaviour of key quantities. Mathematical relationships between the time and frequency domain, such as Fourier Transforms and wavelets, are commonly used to extract information about the underlying signal from a given time series. This one-to-one mapping from time points to frequencies inherently assumes that both domains contain the complete knowledge of the system. However, for truncated, noisy time series with background trends this unique mapping breaks down and the question reduces to an inference problem of identifying the most probable frequencies. In this paper we build on the method of Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and demonstrate its advantages over conventional methods by applying it to a number of test cases, including two types of biological time series. Firstly, oscillations of calcium in plant root cells in response to microbial symbionts are non-stationary and noisy, posing challenges to data analysis. Secondly, circadian rhythms in gene expression measured over only two cycles highlights the problem of time series with limited length. The results show that the Bayesian frequency detection approach can provide useful results in specific areas where Fourier analysis can be uninformative or misleading. We demonstrate further benefits of the Bayesian approach for time series analysis, such as direct comparison of different hypotheses, inherent estimation of noise levels and parameter precision, and a flexible framework for modelling the data without pre-processing. Modelling in systems biology often builds on the study of time-dependent phenomena. Fourier Transforms are a convenient tool for analysing the frequency domain of time series. However, there are well-known limitations of this method, such as the introduction of spurious frequencies when handling short and noisy time series, and the requirement for uniformly sampled data. Biological time series often deviate significantly from the requirements of optimality for Fourier transformation. In this paper we present an alternative approach based on Bayesian inference. We show the value of placing spectral analysis in the framework of Bayesian inference and demonstrate how model comparison can automate this procedure.

Automated Bayesian model development for frequency detection in biological time series

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background A first step in building a mathematical model of a biological system is often the analysis of the temporal behaviour of key quantities. Mathematical relationships between the time and frequency domain, such as Fourier Transforms and wavelets, are commonly used to extract information about the underlying signal from a given time series. This one-to-one mapping from time points to frequencies inherently assumes that both domains contain the complete knowledge of the system. However, for truncated, noisy time series with background trends this unique mapping breaks down and the question reduces to an inference problem of identifying the most probable frequencies. Results In this paper we build on the method of Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and demonstrate its advantages over conventional methods by applying it to a number of test cases, including two types of biological time series. Firstly, oscillations of calcium in plant root cells in response to microbial symbionts are non-stationary and noisy, posing challenges to data analysis. Secondly, circadian rhythms in gene expression measured over only two cycles highlights the problem of time series with limited length. The results show that the Bayesian frequency detection approach can provide useful results in specific areas where Fourier analysis can be uninformative or misleading. We demonstrate further benefits of the Bayesian approach for time series analysis, such as direct comparison of different hypotheses, inherent estimation of noise levels and parameter precision, and a flexible framework for modelling the data without pre-processing. Conclusions Modelling in systems biology often builds on the study of time-dependent phenomena. Fourier Transforms are a convenient tool for analysing the frequency domain of time series. However, there are well-known limitations of this method, such as the introduction of spurious frequencies when handling short and noisy time series, and the requirement for uniformly sampled data. Biological time series often deviate significantly from the requirements of optimality for Fourier transformation. In this paper we present an alternative approach based on Bayesian inference. We show the value of placing spectral analysis in the framework of Bayesian inference and demonstrate how model comparison can automate this procedure. PMID:21702910

Genetic structure and hierarchical population divergence history of Acer mono var. mono in South and Northeast China.

PubMed

Liu, Chunping; Tsuda, Yoshiaki; Shen, Hailong; Hu, Lijiang; Saito, Yoko; Ide, Yuji

2014-01-01

Knowledge of the genetic structure and evolutionary history of tree species across their ranges is essential for the development of effective conservation and forest management strategies. Acer mono var. mono, an economically and ecologically important maple species, is extensively distributed in Northeast China (NE), whereas it has a scattered and patchy distribution in South China (SC). In this study, the genetic structure and demographic history of 56 natural populations of A. mono var. mono were evaluated using seven nuclear microsatellite markers. Neighbor-joining tree and STRUCTURE analysis clearly separated populations into NE and SC groups with two admixed-like populations. Allelic richness significantly decreased with increasing latitude within the NE group while both allelic richness and expected heterozygosity showed significant positive correlation with latitude within the SC group. Especially in the NE region, previous studies in Quercus mongolica and Fraxinus mandshurica have also detected reductions in genetic diversity with increases in latitude, suggesting this pattern may be common for tree species in this region, probably due to expansion from single refugium following the last glacial maximum (LGM). Approximate Bayesian Computation-based analysis revealed two major features of hierarchical population divergence in the species' evolutionary history. Recent divergence between the NE group and the admixed-like group corresponded to the LGM period and ancient divergence of SC groups took place during mid-late Pleistocene period. The level of genetic differentiation was moderate (FST  = 0.073; G'ST  = 0.278) among all populations, but significantly higher in the SC group than the NE group, mirroring the species' more scattered distribution in SC. Conservation measures for this species are proposed, taking into account the genetic structure and past demographic history identified in this study.

Divergent pattern of nuclear genetic diversity across the range of the Afromontane Prunus africana mirrors variable climate of African highlands

PubMed Central

Kadu, Caroline A. C.; Konrad, Heino; Schueler, Silvio; Muluvi, Geoffrey M.; Eyog-Matig, Oscar; Muchugi, Alice; Williams, Vivienne L.; Ramamonjisoa, Lolona; Kapinga, Consolatha; Foahom, Bernard; Katsvanga, Cuthbert; Hafashimana, David; Obama, Crisantos; Geburek, Thomas

2013-01-01

Background and Aims Afromontane forest ecosystems share a high similarity of plant and animal biodiversity, although they occur mainly on isolated mountain massifs throughout the continent. This resemblance has long provoked questions on former wider distribution of Afromontane forests. In this study Prunus africana (one of the character trees of Afromontane forests) is used as a model for understanding the biogeography of this vegetation zone. Methods Thirty natural populations from nine African countries covering a large part of Afromontane regions were analysed using six nuclear microsatellites. Standard population genetic analysis as well as Bayesian and maximum likelihood models were used to infer genetic diversity, population differentiation, barriers to gene flow, and recent and all migration among populations. Key Results Prunus africana exhibits strong divergence among five main Afromontane regions: West Africa, East Africa west of the Eastern Rift Valley (ERV), East Africa east of the ERV, southern Africa and Madagascar. The strongest divergence was evident between Madagascar and continental Africa. Populations from West Africa showed high similarity with East African populations west of the ERV, whereas populations east of the ERV are closely related to populations of southern Africa, respectively. Conclusions The observed patterns indicate divergent population history across the continent most likely associated to Pleistocene changes in climatic conditions. The high genetic similarity between populations of West Africa with population of East Africa west of the ERV is in agreement with faunistic and floristic patterns and provides further evidence for a historical migration route. Contrasting estimates of recent and historical gene flow indicate a shift of the main barrier to gene flow from the Lake Victoria basin to the ERV, highlighting the dynamic environmental and evolutionary history of the region. PMID:23250908

Genetic Structure and Hierarchical Population Divergence History of Acer mono var. mono in South and Northeast China

PubMed Central

Shen, Hailong; Hu, Lijiang; Saito, Yoko; Ide, Yuji

2014-01-01

Knowledge of the genetic structure and evolutionary history of tree species across their ranges is essential for the development of effective conservation and forest management strategies. Acer mono var. mono, an economically and ecologically important maple species, is extensively distributed in Northeast China (NE), whereas it has a scattered and patchy distribution in South China (SC). In this study, the genetic structure and demographic history of 56 natural populations of A. mono var. mono were evaluated using seven nuclear microsatellite markers. Neighbor-joining tree and STRUCTURE analysis clearly separated populations into NE and SC groups with two admixed-like populations. Allelic richness significantly decreased with increasing latitude within the NE group while both allelic richness and expected heterozygosity showed significant positive correlation with latitude within the SC group. Especially in the NE region, previous studies in Quercus mongolica and Fraxinus mandshurica have also detected reductions in genetic diversity with increases in latitude, suggesting this pattern may be common for tree species in this region, probably due to expansion from single refugium following the last glacial maximum (LGM). Approximate Bayesian Computation-based analysis revealed two major features of hierarchical population divergence in the species’ evolutionary history. Recent divergence between the NE group and the admixed-like group corresponded to the LGM period and ancient divergence of SC groups took place during mid-late Pleistocene period. The level of genetic differentiation was moderate (FST = 0.073; G′ST = 0.278) among all populations, but significantly higher in the SC group than the NE group, mirroring the species’ more scattered distribution in SC. Conservation measures for this species are proposed, taking into account the genetic structure and past demographic history identified in this study. PMID:24498039

On the Evolutionary and Biogeographic History of Saxifraga sect. Trachyphyllum (Gaud.) Koch (Saxifragaceae Juss.)

PubMed Central

DeChaine, Eric G.; Anderson, Stacy A.; McNew, Jennifer M.; Wendling, Barry M.

2013-01-01

Arctic-alpine plants in the genus Saxifraga L. (Saxifragaceae Juss.) provide an excellent system for investigating the process of diversification in northern regions. Yet, sect. Trachyphyllum (Gaud.) Koch, which is comprised of about 8 to 26 species, has still not been explored by molecular systematists even though taxonomists concur that the section needs to be thoroughly re-examined. Our goals were to use chloroplast trnL-F and nuclear ITS DNA sequence data to circumscribe the section phylogenetically, test models of geographically-based population divergence, and assess the utility of morphological characters in estimating evolutionary relationships. To do so, we sequenced both genetic markers for 19 taxa within the section. The phylogenetic inferences of sect. Trachyphyllum using maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses showed that the section is polyphyletic, with S. aspera L. and S bryoides L. falling outside the main clade. In addition, the analyses supported several taxonomic re-classifications to prior names. We used two approaches to test biogeographic hypotheses: i) a coalescent approach in Mesquite to test the fit of our reconstructed gene trees to geographically-based models of population divergence and ii) a maximum likelihood inference in Lagrange. These tests uncovered strong support for an origin of the clade in the Southern Rocky Mountains of North America followed by dispersal and divergence episodes across refugia. Finally we adopted a stochastic character mapping approach in SIMMAP to investigate the utility of morphological characters in estimating evolutionary relationships among taxa. We found that few morphological characters were phylogenetically informative and many were misleading. Our molecular analyses provide a foundation for the diversity and evolutionary relationships within sect. Trachyphyllum and hypotheses for better understanding the patterns and processes of divergence in this section, other saxifrages, and plants inhabiting the North Pacific Rim. PMID:23922810

A practical divergence measure for survival distributions that can be estimated from Kaplan-Meier curves.

PubMed

Cox, Trevor F; Czanner, Gabriela

2016-06-30

This paper introduces a new simple divergence measure between two survival distributions. For two groups of patients, the divergence measure between their associated survival distributions is based on the integral of the absolute difference in probabilities that a patient from one group dies at time t and a patient from the other group survives beyond time t and vice versa. In the case of non-crossing hazard functions, the divergence measure is closely linked to the Harrell concordance index, C, the Mann-Whitney test statistic and the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve. The measure can be used in a dynamic way where the divergence between two survival distributions from time zero up to time t is calculated enabling real-time monitoring of treatment differences. The divergence can be found for theoretical survival distributions or can be estimated non-parametrically from survival data using Kaplan-Meier estimates of the survivor functions. The estimator of the divergence is shown to be generally unbiased and approximately normally distributed. For the case of proportional hazards, the constituent parts of the divergence measure can be used to assess the proportional hazards assumption. The use of the divergence measure is illustrated on the survival of pancreatic cancer patients. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Genetic Divergence Disclosing a Rapid Prehistorical Dispersion of Native Americans in Central and South America

PubMed Central

He, Yungang; Wang, Wei R.; Li, Ran; Wang, Sijia; Jin, Li

2012-01-01

An accurate estimate of the divergence time between Native Americans is important for understanding the initial entry and early dispersion of human beings in the New World. Current methods for estimating the genetic divergence time of populations could seriously depart from a linear relationship with the true divergence for multiple populations of a different population size and significant population expansion. Here, to address this problem, we propose a novel measure to estimate the genetic divergence time of populations. Computer simulation revealed that the new measure maintained an excellent linear correlation with the population divergence time in complicated multi-population scenarios with population expansion. Utilizing the new measure and microsatellite data of 21 Native American populations, we investigated the genetic divergences of the Native American populations. The results indicated that genetic divergences between North American populations are greater than that between Central and South American populations. None of the divergences, however, were large enough to constitute convincing evidence supporting the two-wave or multi-wave migration model for the initial entry of human beings into America. The genetic affinity of the Native American populations was further explored using Neighbor-Net and the genetic divergences suggested that these populations could be categorized into four genetic groups living in four different ecologic zones. The divergence of the population groups suggests that the early dispersion of human beings in America was a multi-step procedure. Further, the divergences suggest the rapid dispersion of Native Americans in Central and South Americas after a long standstill period in North America. PMID:22970308

Footprints in the sand: independent reduction of subdigital lamellae in the Namib-Kalahari burrowing geckos.

PubMed

Lamb, Trip; Bauer, Aaron M

2006-04-07

Many desert organisms exhibit convergence, and certain physical factors such as windblown sands have generated remarkably similar ecomorphs across divergent lineages. The burrowing geckos Colopus, Chondrodactylus and Palmatogecko occupy dune ecosystems in the Namib and Kalahari deserts of southwest Africa. Considered closely related, they share several putative synapomorphies, including reduced subdigital pads (toe pads) and spinose digital scales. Though recognized as part of Africa's ecologically diverse Pachydactylus Group, the burrowing geckos' precise phylogenetic affinities remain elusive. Convergent pedal modification provides a tenable alternative explaining the geckos' derived terrestriality and adaptation to Namib and Kalahari sands. We generated a molecular phylogeny for the Pachydactylus Group to examine evolutionary relationships among the burrowing geckos and infer historical patterns of pedal character change. Bayesian and parsimony analyses revealed all three burrowing genera to be deeply nested within Pachydactylus, each genus belonging to a separate clade. Strong support for these distinct clades indicates ecomorphological adaptations for burrowing have evolved independently three times in the southern Pachydactylus Group. We argue that the physical properties of Namib and Kalahari sands played a principal role in selecting for pedal similarity.

Children Can Solve Bayesian Problems: The Role of Representation in Mental Computation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhu, Liqi; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2006-01-01

Can children reason the Bayesian way? We argue that the answer to this question depends on how numbers are represented, because a representation can do part of the computation. We test, for the first time, whether Bayesian reasoning can be elicited in children by means of natural frequencies. We show that when information was presented to fourth,…

Variational Gaussian approximation for Poisson data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arridge, Simon R.; Ito, Kazufumi; Jin, Bangti; Zhang, Chen

2018-02-01

The Poisson model is frequently employed to describe count data, but in a Bayesian context it leads to an analytically intractable posterior probability distribution. In this work, we analyze a variational Gaussian approximation to the posterior distribution arising from the Poisson model with a Gaussian prior. This is achieved by seeking an optimal Gaussian distribution minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence from the posterior distribution to the approximation, or equivalently maximizing the lower bound for the model evidence. We derive an explicit expression for the lower bound, and show the existence and uniqueness of the optimal Gaussian approximation. The lower bound functional can be viewed as a variant of classical Tikhonov regularization that penalizes also the covariance. Then we develop an efficient alternating direction maximization algorithm for solving the optimization problem, and analyze its convergence. We discuss strategies for reducing the computational complexity via low rank structure of the forward operator and the sparsity of the covariance. Further, as an application of the lower bound, we discuss hierarchical Bayesian modeling for selecting the hyperparameter in the prior distribution, and propose a monotonically convergent algorithm for determining the hyperparameter. We present extensive numerical experiments to illustrate the Gaussian approximation and the algorithms.

Inferring population history with DIY ABC: a user-friendly approach to approximate Bayesian computation.

PubMed

Cornuet, Jean-Marie; Santos, Filipe; Beaumont, Mark A; Robert, Christian P; Marin, Jean-Michel; Balding, David J; Guillemaud, Thomas; Estoup, Arnaud

2008-12-01

Genetic data obtained on population samples convey information about their evolutionary history. Inference methods can extract part of this information but they require sophisticated statistical techniques that have been made available to the biologist community (through computer programs) only for simple and standard situations typically involving a small number of samples. We propose here a computer program (DIY ABC) for inference based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), in which scenarios can be customized by the user to fit many complex situations involving any number of populations and samples. Such scenarios involve any combination of population divergences, admixtures and population size changes. DIY ABC can be used to compare competing scenarios, estimate parameters for one or more scenarios and compute bias and precision measures for a given scenario and known values of parameters (the current version applies to unlinked microsatellite data). This article describes key methods used in the program and provides its main features. The analysis of one simulated and one real dataset, both with complex evolutionary scenarios, illustrates the main possibilities of DIY ABC. The software DIY ABC is freely available at http://www.montpellier.inra.fr/CBGP/diyabc.

Estimating the periodic components of a biomedical signal through inverse problem modelling and Bayesian inference with sparsity enforcing prior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumitru, Mircea; Djafari, Ali-Mohammad

2015-01-01

The recent developments in chronobiology need a periodic components variation analysis for the signals expressing the biological rhythms. A precise estimation of the periodic components vector is required. The classical approaches, based on FFT methods, are inefficient considering the particularities of the data (short length). In this paper we propose a new method, using the sparsity prior information (reduced number of non-zero values components). The considered law is the Student-t distribution, viewed as a marginal distribution of a Infinite Gaussian Scale Mixture (IGSM) defined via a hidden variable representing the inverse variances and modelled as a Gamma Distribution. The hyperparameters are modelled using the conjugate priors, i.e. using Inverse Gamma Distributions. The expression of the joint posterior law of the unknown periodic components vector, hidden variables and hyperparameters is obtained and then the unknowns are estimated via Joint Maximum A Posteriori (JMAP) and Posterior Mean (PM). For the PM estimator, the expression of the posterior law is approximated by a separable one, via the Bayesian Variational Approximation (BVA), using the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. Finally we show the results on synthetic data in cancer treatment applications.

Online Variational Bayesian Filtering-Based Mobile Target Tracking in Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Zhou, Bingpeng; Chen, Qingchun; Li, Tiffany Jing; Xiao, Pei

2014-01-01

The received signal strength (RSS)-based online tracking for a mobile node in wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is investigated in this paper. Firstly, a multi-layer dynamic Bayesian network (MDBN) is introduced to characterize the target mobility with either directional or undirected movement. In particular, it is proposed to employ the Wishart distribution to approximate the time-varying RSS measurement precision's randomness due to the target movement. It is shown that the proposed MDBN offers a more general analysis model via incorporating the underlying statistical information of both the target movement and observations, which can be utilized to improve the online tracking capability by exploiting the Bayesian statistics. Secondly, based on the MDBN model, a mean-field variational Bayesian filtering (VBF) algorithm is developed to realize the online tracking of a mobile target in the presence of nonlinear observations and time-varying RSS precision, wherein the traditional Bayesian filtering scheme cannot be directly employed. Thirdly, a joint optimization between the real-time velocity and its prior expectation is proposed to enable online velocity tracking in the proposed online tacking scheme. Finally, the associated Bayesian Cramer–Rao Lower Bound (BCRLB) analysis and numerical simulations are conducted. Our analysis unveils that, by exploiting the potential state information via the general MDBN model, the proposed VBF algorithm provides a promising solution to the online tracking of a mobile node in WSNs. In addition, it is shown that the final tracking accuracy linearly scales with its expectation when the RSS measurement precision is time-varying. PMID:25393784

Bayesian Probability Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

2014-06-01

Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

Phylogeography of the Small Indian Civet and Origin of Introductions to Western Indian Ocean Islands.

PubMed

Gaubert, Philippe; Patel, Riddhi P; Veron, Géraldine; Goodman, Steven M; Willsch, Maraike; Vasconcelos, Raquel; Lourenço, André; Sigaud, Marie; Justy, Fabienne; Joshi, Bheem Dutt; Fickel, Jörns; Wilting, Andreas

2017-05-01

The biogeographic dynamics affecting the Indian subcontinent, East and Southeast Asia during the Plio-Pleistocene has generated complex biodiversity patterns. We assessed the molecular biogeography of the small Indian civet (Viverricula indica) through mitogenome and cytochrome b + control region sequencing of 89 historical and modern samples to (1) establish a time-calibrated phylogeography across the species' native range and (2) test introduction scenarios to western Indian Ocean islands. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses identified 3 geographic lineages (East Asia, sister-group to Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent + northern Indochina) diverging 3.2-2.3 million years ago (Mya), with no clear signature of past demographic expansion. Within Southeast Asia, Balinese populations separated from the rest 2.6-1.3 Mya. Western Indian Ocean populations were assigned to the Indian subcontinent + northern Indochina lineage and had the lowest mitochondrial diversity. Approximate Bayesian computation did not distinguish between single versus multiple introduction scenarios. The early diversification of the small Indian civet was likely shaped by humid periods in the Late Pliocene-Early Pleistocene that created evergreen rainforest barriers, generating areas of intra-specific endemism in the Indian subcontinent, East, and Southeast Asia. Later, Pleistocene dispersals through drier conditions in South and Southeast Asia were likely, giving rise to the species' current natural distribution. Our molecular data supported the delineation of only 4 subspecies in V. indica, including an endemic Balinese lineage. Our study also highlighted the influence of prefirst millennium AD introductions to western Indian Ocean islands, with Indian and/or Arab traders probably introducing the species for its civet oil. © The American Genetic Association 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Biogeographic history of Pistacia (Anacardiaceae), emphasizing the evolution of the Madrean-Tethyan and the eastern Asian-Tethyan disjunctions.

PubMed

Xie, Lei; Yang, Zhi-Yun; Wen, Jun; Li, De-Zhu; Yi, Ting-Shuang

2014-08-01

Pistacia L. exhibits a disjunct distribution in Mediterranean Eurasia and adjacent North Africa, eastern Asia, and North to Central America. The spatio-temporal diversification history of Pistacia was assessed to test hypotheses on the Madrean-Tethyan and the Eurasian Tethyan disjunctions through phylogenetic and biogeographic analyses. Maximum parsimony and Bayesian methods were employed to analyze sequences of multiple nuclear and plastid loci of Pistacia species. Bayesian dating analysis was conducted to estimate the divergence times of clades. The likelihood method LAGRANGE was used to infer ancestral areas. The New World species of Pistacia formed a clade sister to the Old World clade in all phylogenetic analyses. The eastern Asian Pistacia weinmannifolia-P. cucphuongensis clade was sister to a clade of the remaining Old World species, which were further resolved into three subclades. Pistacia was estimated to have originated at 37.60 mya (with 95% highest posterior density interval (HPD): 25.42-48.51 mya). A vicariance event in the early Miocene (19.79 mya with 95% HPD: 10.88-30.36 mya) was inferred to account for the intercontinental disjunction between the New World and the Old World species, which is consistent with the Madrean-Tethyan hypothesis. The two Old World eastern Asian-Tethyan disjunctions are best explained by one vicariance event in the early Miocene (15.87 mya with 95% HPD: 8.36-24.36 mya) and one dispersal event in late Miocene (5.89 mya with 95% HPD: 2.68-9.16 mya). The diversification of the Old World Pistacia species was significantly affected by extensive geological and climatic changes in the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau (QTP) and in the Mediterranean region. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The evolution of giant flightless birds and novel phylogenetic relationships for extinct fowl (Aves, Galloanseres)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worthy, Trevor H.; Degrange, Federico J.; Handley, Warren D.; Lee, Michael S. Y.

2017-10-01

The extinct dromornithids, gastornithids and phorusrhacids are among the most spectacular birds to have ever lived, with some giants exceeding 500 kg. The affinities and evolution of these and other related extinct birds remain contentious, with previous phylogenetic analyses being affected by widespread convergence and limited taxon sampling. We address these problems using both parsimony and tip-dated Bayesian approaches on an expansive taxon set that includes all key extinct flightless and flighted (e.g. Vegavis and lithornithids) forms, an extensive array of extant fowl (Galloanseres), representative Neoaves and palaeognaths. The Paleogene volant Lithornithidae are recovered as stem palaeognaths in the Bayesian analyses. The Galloanseres comprise four clades inferred to have diverged in the Late Cretaceous on Gondwana. In addition to Anseriformes and Galliformes, we recognize a robust new clade (Gastornithiformes) for the giant flightless Dromornithidae (Australia) and Gastornithidae (Eurasia, North America). This clade exhibits parallels to ratite palaeognaths in that flight presumably was lost and giant size attained multiple times. A fourth clade is represented by the Cretaceous Vegavis (Antarctica), which was strongly excluded from Anseriformes; thus, a crucial molecular calibration point needs to be reconsidered. The presbyornithids Wilaru (Australia) and Presbyornis (Northern Hemisphere) are robustly found to be the sister group to Anatoidea (Anseranatidae + Anatidae), a relatively more basal position than hitherto recognized. South America's largest bird, Brontornis, is not a galloansere, but a member of Neoaves related to Cariamiformes; therefore, giant Galloanseres remain unknown from this continent. Trait analyses showed that while gigantism and flightlessness evolved repeatedly in groups, diet is constrained by phylogeny: all giant Galloanseres and palaeognaths are herbivores or mainly herbivorous, and giant neoavians are zoophagous or omnivorous.

Generic reclassification and species boundaries in the rediscovered freshwater mussel ‘Quadrula’ mitchelli (Simpson in Dall, 1896)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pfeiffer, John M.; Johnson, Nathan A.; Randklev, Charles R.; Howells, Robert G.; Williams, James D.

2016-01-01

The Central Texas endemic freshwater mussel, Quadrula mitchelli (Simpson in Dall, 1896), had been presumed extinct until relict populations were recently rediscovered. To help guide ongoing and future conservation efforts focused on Q. mitchelli we set out to resolve several uncertainties regarding its evolutionary history, specifically its unknown generic position and untested species boundaries. We designed a molecular matrix consisting of two loci (cytochrome c oxidase subunit I and internal transcribed spacer I) and 57 terminal taxa to test the generic position of Q. mitchelli using Bayesian inference and maximum likelihood phylogenetic reconstruction. We also employed two Bayesian species validation methods to test five a priori species models (i.e. hypotheses of species delimitation). Our study is the first to test the generic position of Q.mitchelli and we found robust support for its inclusion in the genusFusconaia. Accordingly, we introduce the binomial, Fusconaia mitchelli comb. nov., to accurately represent the systematic position of the species. We resolved F. mitchelli individuals in two well supported and divergent clades that were generally distinguished as distinct species using Bayesian species validation methods, although alternative hypotheses of species delineation were also supported. Despite strong evidence of genetic isolation within F. mitchelli, we do not advocate for species-level status of the two clades as they are allopatrically distributed and no morphological, behavioral, or ecological characters are known to distinguish them. These results are discussed in the context of the systematics, distribution, and conservation ofF. mitchelli.

Single-Case Time Series with Bayesian Analysis: A Practitioner's Guide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, W. Paul

2003-01-01

This article illustrates a simplified time series analysis for use by the counseling researcher practitioner in single-case baseline plus intervention studies with a Bayesian probability analysis to integrate findings from replications. The C statistic is recommended as a primary analysis tool with particular relevance in the context of actual…

A study of finite mixture model: Bayesian approach on financial time series data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

2014-07-01

Recently, statistician have emphasized on the fitting finite mixture model by using Bayesian method. Finite mixture model is a mixture of distributions in modeling a statistical distribution meanwhile Bayesian method is a statistical method that use to fit the mixture model. Bayesian method is being used widely because it has asymptotic properties which provide remarkable result. In addition, Bayesian method also shows consistency characteristic which means the parameter estimates are close to the predictive distributions. In the present paper, the number of components for mixture model is studied by using Bayesian Information Criterion. Identify the number of component is important because it may lead to an invalid result. Later, the Bayesian method is utilized to fit the k-component mixture model in order to explore the relationship between rubber price and stock market price for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia. Lastly, the results showed that there is a negative effect among rubber price and stock market price for all selected countries.

Bayesian estimates of the incidence of rare cancers in Europe.

PubMed

Botta, Laura; Capocaccia, Riccardo; Trama, Annalisa; Herrmann, Christian; Salmerón, Diego; De Angelis, Roberta; Mallone, Sandra; Bidoli, Ettore; Marcos-Gragera, Rafael; Dudek-Godeau, Dorota; Gatta, Gemma; Cleries, Ramon

2018-04-21

The RARECAREnet project has updated the estimates of the burden of the 198 rare cancers in each European country. Suspecting that scant data could affect the reliability of statistical analysis, we employed a Bayesian approach to estimate the incidence of these cancers. We analyzed about 2,000,000 rare cancers diagnosed in 2000-2007 provided by 83 population-based cancer registries from 27 European countries. We considered European incidence rates (IRs), calculated over all the data available in RARECAREnet, as a valid a priori to merge with country-specific observed data. Therefore we provided (1) Bayesian estimates of IRs and the yearly numbers of cases of rare cancers in each country; (2) the expected time (T) in years needed to observe one new case; and (3) practical criteria to decide when to use the Bayesian approach. Bayesian and classical estimates did not differ much; substantial differences (>10%) ranged from 77 rare cancers in Iceland to 14 in England. The smaller the population the larger the number of rare cancers needing a Bayesian approach. Bayesian estimates were useful for cancers with fewer than 150 observed cases in a country during the study period; this occurred mostly when the population of the country is small. For the first time the Bayesian estimates of IRs and the yearly expected numbers of cases for each rare cancer in each individual European country were calculated. Moreover, the indicator T is useful to convey incidence estimates for exceptionally rare cancers and in small countries; it far exceeds the professional lifespan of a medical doctor. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamical Bayesian inference of time-evolving interactions: from a pair of coupled oscillators to networks of oscillators.

PubMed

Duggento, Andrea; Stankovski, Tomislav; McClintock, Peter V E; Stefanovska, Aneta

2012-12-01

Living systems have time-evolving interactions that, until recently, could not be identified accurately from recorded time series in the presence of noise. Stankovski et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 109, 024101 (2012)] introduced a method based on dynamical Bayesian inference that facilitates the simultaneous detection of time-varying synchronization, directionality of influence, and coupling functions. It can distinguish unsynchronized dynamics from noise-induced phase slips. The method is based on phase dynamics, with Bayesian inference of the time-evolving parameters being achieved by shaping the prior densities to incorporate knowledge of previous samples. We now present the method in detail using numerically generated data, data from an analog electronic circuit, and cardiorespiratory data. We also generalize the method to encompass networks of interacting oscillators and thus demonstrate its applicability to small-scale networks.

Bayesian analysis of time-series data under case-crossover designs: posterior equivalence and inference.

PubMed

Li, Shi; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Batterman, Stuart; Ghosh, Malay

2013-12-01

Case-crossover designs are widely used to study short-term exposure effects on the risk of acute adverse health events. While the frequentist literature on this topic is vast, there is no Bayesian work in this general area. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, the paper establishes Bayesian equivalence results that require characterization of the set of priors under which the posterior distributions of the risk ratio parameters based on a case-crossover and time-series analysis are identical. Second, the paper studies inferential issues under case-crossover designs in a Bayesian framework. Traditionally, a conditional logistic regression is used for inference on risk-ratio parameters in case-crossover studies. We consider instead a more general full likelihood-based approach which makes less restrictive assumptions on the risk functions. Formulation of a full likelihood leads to growth in the number of parameters proportional to the sample size. We propose a semi-parametric Bayesian approach using a Dirichlet process prior to handle the random nuisance parameters that appear in a full likelihood formulation. We carry out a simulation study to compare the Bayesian methods based on full and conditional likelihood with the standard frequentist approaches for case-crossover and time-series analysis. The proposed methods are illustrated through the Detroit Asthma Morbidity, Air Quality and Traffic study, which examines the association between acute asthma risk and ambient air pollutant concentrations. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

The impact of fossil calibrations, codon positions and relaxed clocks on the divergence time estimates of the native Australian rodents (Conilurini).

PubMed

Nilsson, Maria A; Härlid, Anna; Kullberg, Morgan; Janke, Axel

2010-05-01

The native rodents are the most species-rich placental mammal group on the Australian continent. Fossils of native Australian rodents belonging to the group Conilurini are known from Northern Australia at 4.5Ma. These fossil assemblages already display a rich diversity of rodents, but the exact timing of their arrival on the Australian continent is not yet established. The complete mitochondrial genomes of two native Australian rodents, Leggadina lakedownensis (Lakeland Downs mouse) and Pseudomys chapmani (Western Pebble-mound mouse) were sequenced for investigating their evolutionary history. The molecular data were used for studying the phylogenetic position and divergence times of the Australian rodents, using 12 calibration points and various methods. Phylogenetic analyses place the native Australian rodents as the sister-group to the genus Mus. The Mus-Conilurini calibration point (7.3-11.0Ma) is highly critical for estimating rodent divergence times, while the influence of the different algorithms on estimating divergence times is negligible. The influence of the data type was investigated, indicating that amino acid data are more likely to reflect the correct divergence times than nucleotide sequences. The study on the problems related to estimating divergence times in fast-evolving lineages such as rodents, emphasize the choice of data and calibration points as being critical. Furthermore, it is essential to include accurate calibration points for fast-evolving groups, because the divergence times can otherwise be estimated to be significantly older. The divergence times of the Australian rodents are highly congruent and are estimated to 6.5-7.2Ma, a date that is compatible with their fossil record.

Genetic and phenotypic divergence in an island bird: isolation by distance, by colonization or by adaptation?

PubMed

Spurgin, Lewis G; Illera, Juan Carlos; Jorgensen, Tove H; Dawson, Deborah A; Richardson, David S

2014-03-01

Discerning the relative roles of adaptive and nonadaptive processes in generating differences among populations and species, as well as how these processes interact, is a fundamental aim in biology. Both genetic and phenotypic divergence across populations can be the product of limited dispersal and gradual genetic drift across populations (isolation by distance), of colonization history and founder effects (isolation by colonization) or of adaptation to different environments preventing migration between populations (isolation by adaptation). Here, we attempt to differentiate between these processes using island populations of Berthelot's pipit (Anthus berthelotii), a passerine bird endemic to three Atlantic archipelagos. Using microsatellite markers and approximate Bayesian computation, we reveal that the northward colonization of this species ca. 8500 years ago resulted in genetic bottlenecks in the colonized archipelagos. We then show that high levels of genetic structure exist across archipelagos and that these are consistent with a pattern of isolation by colonization, but not with isolation by distance or adaptation. Finally, we show that substantial morphological divergence also exists and that this is strongly concordant with patterns of genetic structure and bottleneck history, but not with environmental differences or geographic distance. Overall, our data suggest that founder effects are responsible for both genetic and phenotypic changes across archipelagos. Our findings provide a rare example of how founder effects can persist over evolutionary timescales and suggest that they may play an important role in the early stages of speciation. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Interrelationships of Placental Mammals and the Limits of Phylogenetic Inference.

PubMed

Tarver, James E; Dos Reis, Mario; Mirarab, Siavash; Moran, Raymond J; Parker, Sean; O'Reilly, Joseph E; King, Benjamin L; O'Connell, Mary J; Asher, Robert J; Warnow, Tandy; Peterson, Kevin J; Donoghue, Philip C J; Pisani, Davide

2016-01-05

Placental mammals comprise three principal clades: Afrotheria (e.g., elephants and tenrecs), Xenarthra (e.g., armadillos and sloths), and Boreoeutheria (all other placental mammals), the relationships among which are the subject of controversy and a touchstone for debate on the limits of phylogenetic inference. Previous analyses have found support for all three hypotheses, leading some to conclude that this phylogenetic problem might be impossible to resolve due to the compounded effects of incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) and a rapid radiation. Here we show, using a genome scale nucleotide data set, microRNAs, and the reanalysis of the three largest previously published amino acid data sets, that the root of Placentalia lies between Atlantogenata and Boreoeutheria. Although we found evidence for ILS in early placental evolution, we are able to reject previous conclusions that the placental root is a hard polytomy that cannot be resolved. Reanalyses of previous data sets recover Atlantogenata + Boreoeutheria and show that contradictory results are a consequence of poorly fitting evolutionary models; instead, when the evolutionary process is better-modeled, all data sets converge on Atlantogenata. Our Bayesian molecular clock analysis estimates that marsupials diverged from placentals 157-170 Ma, crown Placentalia diverged 86-100 Ma, and crown Atlantogenata diverged 84-97 Ma. Our results are compatible with placental diversification being driven by dispersal rather than vicariance mechanisms, postdating early phases in the protracted opening of the Atlantic Ocean. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Genetic variation and phylogenetic relationship analysis of Jatropha curcas L. inferred from nrDNA ITS sequences.

PubMed

Guo, Guo-Ye; Chen, Fang; Shi, Xiao-Dong; Tian, Yin-Shuai; Yu, Mao-Qun; Han, Xue-Qin; Yuan, Li-Chun; Zhang, Ying

2016-01-01

Genetic variation and phylogenetic relationships among 102 Jatropha curcas accessions from Asia, Africa, and the Americas were assessed using the internal transcribed spacer region of nuclear ribosomal DNA (nrDNA ITS). The average G+C content (65.04%) was considerably higher than the A+T (34.96%) content. The estimated genetic diversity revealed moderate genetic variation. The pairwise genetic divergences (GD) between haplotypes were evaluated and ranged from 0.000 to 0.017, suggesting a higher level of genetic differentiation in Mexican accessions than those of other regions. Phylogenetic relationships and intraspecific divergence were inferred by Bayesian inference (BI), maximum parsimony (MP), and median joining (MJ) network analysis and were generally resolved. The J. curcas accessions were consistently divided into three lineages, groups A, B, and C, which demonstrated distant geographical isolation and genetic divergence between American accessions and those from other regions. The MJ network analysis confirmed that Central America was the possible center of origin. The putative migration route suggested that J. curcas was distributed from Mexico or Brazil, via Cape Verde and then split into two routes. One route was dispersed to Spain, then migrated to China, eventually spreading to southeastern Asia, while the other route was dispersed to Africa, via Madagascar and migrated to China, later spreading to southeastern Asia. Copyright © 2016 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Limited genetic divergence among Australian alpine Poa tussock grasses coupled with regional structuring points to ongoing gene flow and taxonomic challenges

PubMed Central

Griffin, Philippa C.; Hoffmann, Ary A.

2014-01-01

Background and Aims While molecular approaches can often accurately reconstruct species relationships, taxa that are incompletely differentiated pose a challenge even with extensive data. Such taxa are functionally differentiated, but may be genetically differentiated only at small and/or patchy regions of the genome. This issue is considered here in Poa tussock grass species that dominate grassland and herbfields in the Australian alpine zone. Methods Previously reported tetraploidy was confirmed in all species by sequencing seven nuclear regions and five microsatellite markers. A Bayesian approach was used to co-estimate nuclear and chloroplast gene trees with an overall dated species tree. The resulting species tree was used to examine species structure and recent hybridization, and intertaxon fertility was tested by experimental crosses. Key Results Species tree estimation revealed Poa gunnii, a Tasmanian endemic species, as sister to the rest of the Australian alpine Poa. The taxa have radiated in the last 0·5–1·2 million years and the non-gunnii taxa are not supported as genetically distinct. Recent hybridization following past species divergence was also not supported. Ongoing gene flow is suggested, with some broad-scale geographic structure within the group. Conclusions The Australian alpine Poa species are not genetically distinct despite being distinguishable phenotypically, suggesting recent adaptive divergence with ongoing intertaxon gene flow. This highlights challenges in using conventional molecular taxonomy to infer species relationships in recent, rapid radiations. PMID:24607721

Evolutionary Insights from a Genetically Divergent Hantavirus Harbored by the European Common Mole (Talpa europaea)

PubMed Central

Kang, Hae Ji; Bennett, Shannon N.; Sumibcay, Laarni; Arai, Satoru; Hope, Andrew G.; Mocz, Gabor; Song, Jin-Won; Cook, Joseph A.; Yanagihara, Richard

2009-01-01

Background The discovery of genetically distinct hantaviruses in shrews (Order Soricomorpha, Family Soricidae) from widely separated geographic regions challenges the hypothesis that rodents (Order Rodentia, Family Muridae and Cricetidae) are the primordial reservoir hosts of hantaviruses and also predicts that other soricomorphs harbor hantaviruses. Recently, novel hantavirus genomes have been detected in moles of the Family Talpidae, including the Japanese shrew mole (Urotrichus talpoides) and American shrew mole (Neurotrichus gibbsii). We present new insights into the evolutionary history of hantaviruses gained from a highly divergent hantavirus, designated Nova virus (NVAV), identified in the European common mole (Talpa europaea) captured in Hungary. Methodology/Principal Findings Pair-wise alignment and comparison of the full-length S- and L-genomic segments indicated moderately low sequence similarity of 54–65% and 46–63% at the nucleotide and amino acid levels, respectively, between NVAV and representative rodent- and soricid-borne hantaviruses. Despite the high degree of sequence divergence, the predicted secondary structure of the NVAV nucleocapsid protein exhibited the characteristic coiled-coil domains at the amino-terminal end, and the L-segment motifs, typically found in hantaviruses, were well conserved. Phylogenetic analyses, using maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods, showed that NVAV formed a distinct clade that was evolutionarily distant from all other hantaviruses. Conclusions Newly identified hantaviruses harbored by shrews and moles support long-standing virus-host relationships and suggest that ancestral soricomorphs, rather than rodents, may have been the early or original mammalian hosts. PMID:19582155

Unique mitochondrial DNA lineages in Irish stickleback populations: cryptic refugium or rapid recolonization?

PubMed

Ravinet, Mark; Harrod, Chris; Eizaguirre, Christophe; Prodöhl, Paulo A

2014-06-01

Repeated recolonization of freshwater environments following Pleistocene glaciations has played a major role in the evolution and adaptation of anadromous taxa. Located at the western fringe of Europe, Ireland and Britain were likely recolonized rapidly by anadromous fishes from the North Atlantic following the last glacial maximum (LGM). While the presence of unique mitochondrial haplotypes in Ireland suggests that a cryptic northern refugium may have played a role in recolonization, no explicit test of this hypothesis has been conducted. The three-spined stickleback is native and ubiquitous to aquatic ecosystems throughout Ireland, making it an excellent model species with which to examine the biogeographical history of anadromous fishes in the region. We used mitochondrial and microsatellite markers to examine the presence of divergent evolutionary lineages and to assess broad-scale patterns of geographical clustering among postglacially isolated populations. Our results confirm that Ireland is a region of secondary contact for divergent mitochondrial lineages and that endemic haplotypes occur in populations in Central and Southern Ireland. To test whether a putative Irish lineage arose from a cryptic Irish refugium, we used approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). However, we found no support for this hypothesis. Instead, the Irish lineage likely diverged from the European lineage as a result of postglacial isolation of freshwater populations by rising sea levels. These findings emphasize the need to rigorously test biogeographical hypothesis and contribute further evidence that postglacial processes may have shaped genetic diversity in temperate fauna.

Phylogeographic structure in long-tailed voles (Rodentia: Arvicolinae) belies the complex Pleistocene history of isolation, divergence, and recolonization of Northwest North America's fauna.

PubMed

Sawyer, Yadéeh E; Cook, Joseph A

2016-09-01

Quaternary climate fluctuations restructured biodiversity across North American high latitudes through repeated episodes of range contraction, population isolation and divergence, and subsequent expansion. Identifying how species responded to changing environmental conditions not only allows us to explore the mode and tempo of evolution in northern taxa, but also provides a basis for forecasting future biotic response across the highly variable topography of western North America. Using a multilocus approach under a Bayesian coalescent framework, we investigated the phylogeography of a wide-ranging mammal, the long-tailed vole, Microtus longicaudus . We focused on populations along the North Pacific Coast to refine our understanding of diversification by exploring the potentially compounding roles of multiple glacial refugia and more recent fragmentation of an extensive coastal archipelago. Through a combination of genetic data and species distribution models (SDMs), we found that historical climate variability influenced contemporary genetic structure, with multiple isolated locations of persistence (refugia) producing multiple divergent lineages (Beringian or northern, southeast Alaska or coastal, and southern or continental) during glacial advances. These vole lineages all occur along the North Pacific Coast where the confluence of numerous independent lineages in other species has produced overlapping zones of secondary contact, collectively a suture zone. Finally, we detected high levels of neoendemism due to complex island geography that developed in the last 10,000 years with the rising sea levels of the Holocene.

Unique mitochondrial DNA lineages in Irish stickleback populations: cryptic refugium or rapid recolonization?

PubMed Central

Ravinet, Mark; Harrod, Chris; Eizaguirre, Christophe; Prodöhl, Paulo A

2014-01-01

Repeated recolonization of freshwater environments following Pleistocene glaciations has played a major role in the evolution and adaptation of anadromous taxa. Located at the western fringe of Europe, Ireland and Britain were likely recolonized rapidly by anadromous fishes from the North Atlantic following the last glacial maximum (LGM). While the presence of unique mitochondrial haplotypes in Ireland suggests that a cryptic northern refugium may have played a role in recolonization, no explicit test of this hypothesis has been conducted. The three-spined stickleback is native and ubiquitous to aquatic ecosystems throughout Ireland, making it an excellent model species with which to examine the biogeographical history of anadromous fishes in the region. We used mitochondrial and microsatellite markers to examine the presence of divergent evolutionary lineages and to assess broad-scale patterns of geographical clustering among postglacially isolated populations. Our results confirm that Ireland is a region of secondary contact for divergent mitochondrial lineages and that endemic haplotypes occur in populations in Central and Southern Ireland. To test whether a putative Irish lineage arose from a cryptic Irish refugium, we used approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). However, we found no support for this hypothesis. Instead, the Irish lineage likely diverged from the European lineage as a result of postglacial isolation of freshwater populations by rising sea levels. These findings emphasize the need to rigorously test biogeographical hypothesis and contribute further evidence that postglacial processes may have shaped genetic diversity in temperate fauna. PMID:25360281

Supermatrix and species tree methods resolve phylogenetic relationships within the big cats, Panthera (Carnivora: Felidae).

PubMed

Davis, Brian W; Li, Gang; Murphy, William J

2010-07-01

The pantherine lineage of cats diverged from the remainder of modern Felidae less than 11 million years ago and consists of the five big cats of the genus Panthera, the lion, tiger, jaguar, leopard, and snow leopard, as well as the closely related clouded leopard. A significant problem exists with respect to the precise phylogeny of these highly threatened great cats. Despite multiple publications on the subject, no two molecular studies have reconstructed Panthera with the same topology. These evolutionary relationships remain unresolved partially due to the recent and rapid radiation of pantherines in the Pliocene, individual speciation events occurring within less than 1 million years, and probable introgression between lineages following their divergence. We provide an alternative, highly supported interpretation of the evolutionary history of the pantherine lineage using novel and published DNA sequence data from the autosomes, both sex chromosomes and the mitochondrial genome. New sequences were generated for 39 single-copy regions of the felid Y chromosome, as well as four mitochondrial and four autosomal gene segments, totaling 28.7 kb. Phylogenetic analysis of these new data, combined with all published data in GenBank, highlighted the prevalence of phylogenetic disparities stemming either from the amplification of a mitochondrial to nuclear translocation event (numt), or errors in species identification. Our 47.6 kb combined dataset was analyzed as a supermatrix and with respect to individual partitions using maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic inference, in conjunction with Bayesian Estimation of Species Trees (BEST) which accounts for heterogeneous gene histories. Our results yield a robust consensus topology supporting the monophyly of lion and leopard, with jaguar sister to these species, as well as a sister species relationship of tiger and snow leopard. These results highlight new avenues for the study of speciation genomics and understanding the historical events surrounding the origin of the members of this lineage. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Bayesian reader: explaining word recognition as an optimal Bayesian decision process.

PubMed

Norris, Dennis

2006-04-01

This article presents a theory of visual word recognition that assumes that, in the tasks of word identification, lexical decision, and semantic categorization, human readers behave as optimal Bayesian decision makers. This leads to the development of a computational model of word recognition, the Bayesian reader. The Bayesian reader successfully simulates some of the most significant data on human reading. The model accounts for the nature of the function relating word frequency to reaction time and identification threshold, the effects of neighborhood density and its interaction with frequency, and the variation in the pattern of neighborhood density effects seen in different experimental tasks. Both the general behavior of the model and the way the model predicts different patterns of results in different tasks follow entirely from the assumption that human readers approximate optimal Bayesian decision makers. ((c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).

The Bayesian approach to reporting GSR analysis results: some first-hand experiences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charles, Sebastien; Nys, Bart

2010-06-01

The use of Bayesian principles in the reporting of forensic findings has been a matter of interest for some years. Recently, also the GSR community is gradually exploring the advantages of this method, or rather approach, for writing reports. Since last year, our GSR group is adapting reporting procedures to the use of Bayesian principles. The police and magistrates find the reports more directly accessible and useful in their part of the criminal investigation. In the lab we find that, through applying the Bayesian principles, unnecessary analyses can be eliminated and thus time can be freed on the instruments.

Creative Cognition in Secondary Science: An exploration of divergent thinking in science among adolescents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antink-Meyer, Allison; Lederman, Norman G.

2015-07-01

The divergent thinking skills in science of 282 US high school students were investigated across 16 weeks of instruction in order to determine whether typical academic time periods can significantly influence changes in thinking skills. Students' from 6 high school science classrooms completed the Scientific Structures Creativity Measure (SSCM) before and after a semester of instruction. Even the short time frame of a typical academic term was found to be sufficient to promote both improvements in divergent thinking skills as well as declining divergent thinking. Declining divergent thinking skills were more common in this time frame than were improvements. The nature of student performance on the SSCM and implications are discussed.

Cytotaxonomy and molecular phylogeny of the genus Cerapanorpa Gao, Ma & Hua, 2016 (Mecoptera: Panorpidae).

PubMed

Miao, Ying; Ma, Na; Hua, Bao-Zhen

2017-07-03

The species of the genus Cerapanorpa Gao, Ma & Hua, 2016 (Mecoptera: Panorpidae) are characterized mainly by the presence of a finger-like anal horn on tergum VI of males and are distributed in the Oriental and eastern Palearctic regions. Herein, we investigated the pachytene banding patterns and reconstructed the Bayesian time-calibrated tree of some species of Cerapanorpa. All species examined display achiasmate meiosis and the same meiformula 2n = 42 + X0, reconfirming the monophyly of Cerapanorpa. The great variations in the size and number of heterochromatic bands suggest that they are reliable traits for species delimitation in Cerapanorpa. The existence of natural C-banding polymorphism indicates that chromosomal rearrangements likely have contributed to the diversification of chromosomal bands in Cerapanorpa. The closely related species of Cerapanorpa are reconfirmed to be evolutionarily independent entities by cytogenetic and molecular data. The divergence time estimated from the BEAST analysis shows that Cerapanorpa likely originated in the period from the Rupelian (30.7 Ma) to the Burdigalian (19.9 Ma), and most diversification occurred from the Burdigalian to the Piacenzian (17.4-2.8 Ma) in the Neogene. Our data suggest that chromosome rearrangements likely play a significant role in the speciation of Cerapanorpa.

Juvenile habitat partitioning and relative productivity in allochronically isolated sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka).

PubMed

Miller, Ek Fillatre; Bradbury, Ir; Heath, Dd

2011-12-01

Allochronic divergence, like spatial isolation, may contribute to population diversity and adaptation, however the challenges for tracking habitat utilization in shared environments are far greater. Adult Klukshu River (Yukon, Canada) sockeye salmon, Oncorhynchus nerka, return as genetically distinct "early" and "late" runs. Early and late adult spawning populations (1999 and 2000) and their subsequent fry (sampled at 7 sites in 2000 and at 8 sites in 2001 throughout Klukshu Lake and River) were genotyped at eight microsatellite loci. Bayesian assignment was used to determine the spatial distribution of early versus late fry; although intermixed, the distribution of fry significantly differed in Klukshu Lake and in the Klukshu River in 2001, based on crosstab analyses. Late-run fry predominated in Klukshu Lake at all sites, while early-run fry were most common in the north and south of Klukshu Lake and in Klukshu River. Early-run spawners had significantly higher relative productivity (early life survival) than late-run fish (2.9 times more fry produced per early-run adult in 2000, and 9.2 times more in 2001). This study demonstrates spatial habitat partitioning and differences in the contribution of allochronically isolated populations to fry abundance, and highlights annual variability that likely contributes to recruitment variation.

Juvenile habitat partitioning and relative productivity in allochronically isolated sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka)

PubMed Central

Miller, EK Fillatre; Bradbury, IR; Heath, DD

2011-01-01

Allochronic divergence, like spatial isolation, may contribute to population diversity and adaptation, however the challenges for tracking habitat utilization in shared environments are far greater. Adult Klukshu River (Yukon, Canada) sockeye salmon, Oncorhynchus nerka, return as genetically distinct “early” and “late” runs. Early and late adult spawning populations (1999 and 2000) and their subsequent fry (sampled at 7 sites in 2000 and at 8 sites in 2001 throughout Klukshu Lake and River) were genotyped at eight microsatellite loci. Bayesian assignment was used to determine the spatial distribution of early versus late fry; although intermixed, the distribution of fry significantly differed in Klukshu Lake and in the Klukshu River in 2001, based on crosstab analyses. Late-run fry predominated in Klukshu Lake at all sites, while early-run fry were most common in the north and south of Klukshu Lake and in Klukshu River. Early-run spawners had significantly higher relative productivity (early life survival) than late-run fish (2.9 times more fry produced per early-run adult in 2000, and 9.2 times more in 2001). This study demonstrates spatial habitat partitioning and differences in the contribution of allochronically isolated populations to fry abundance, and highlights annual variability that likely contributes to recruitment variation. PMID:22393527

Phylogenetic study of Oryzoideae species and related taxa of the Poaceae based on atpB-rbcL and ndhF DNA sequences.

PubMed

Zeng, Xu; Yuan, Zhengrong; Tong, Xin; Li, Qiushi; Gao, Weiwei; Qin, Minjian; Liu, Zhihua

2012-05-01

Oryzoideae (Poaceae) plants have economic and ecological value. However, the phylogenetic position of some plants is not clear, such as Hygroryza aristata (Retz.) Nees. and Porteresia coarctata (Roxb.) Tateoka (syn. Oryza coarctata). Comprehensive molecular phylogenetic studies have been carried out on many genera in the Poaceae. The different DNA sequences, including nuclear and chloroplast sequences, had been extensively employed to determine relationships at both higher and lower taxonomic levels in the Poaceae. Chloroplast DNA ndhF gene and atpB-rbcL spacer were used to construct phylogenetic trees and estimate the divergence time of Oryzoideae, Bambusoideae, Panicoideae, Pooideae and so on. Complete sequences of atpB-rbcL and ndhF were generated for 17 species representing six species of the Oryzoideae and related subfamilies. Nicotiana tabacum L. was the outgroup species. The two DNA datasets were analyzed, using Maximum Parsimony and Bayesian analysis methods. The molecular phylogeny revealed that H. aristata (Retz.) Nees was the sister to Chikusichloa aquatica Koidz. Moreover, P. coarctata (Roxb.) Tateoka was in the genus Oryza. Furthermore, the result of evolution analysis, which based on the ndhF marker, indicated that the time of origin of Oryzoideae might be 31 million years ago.

Scale Mixture Models with Applications to Bayesian Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Zhaohui S.; Damien, Paul; Walker, Stephen

2003-11-01

Scale mixtures of uniform distributions are used to model non-normal data in time series and econometrics in a Bayesian framework. Heteroscedastic and skewed data models are also tackled using scale mixture of uniform distributions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crooks, Gavin; Sivak, David

Many interesting divergence measures between conjugate ensembles of nonequilibrium trajectories can be experimentally determined from the work distribution of the process. Herein, we review the statistical and physical significance of several of these measures, in particular the relative entropy (dissipation), Jeffreys divergence (hysteresis), Jensen-Shannon divergence (time-asymmetry), Chernoff divergence (work cumulant generating function), and Renyi divergence.

Dynamical Bayesian inference of time-evolving interactions: From a pair of coupled oscillators to networks of oscillators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duggento, Andrea; Stankovski, Tomislav; McClintock, Peter V. E.; Stefanovska, Aneta

2012-12-01

Living systems have time-evolving interactions that, until recently, could not be identified accurately from recorded time series in the presence of noise. Stankovski [Phys. Rev. Lett.PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.109.024101 109, 024101 (2012)] introduced a method based on dynamical Bayesian inference that facilitates the simultaneous detection of time-varying synchronization, directionality of influence, and coupling functions. It can distinguish unsynchronized dynamics from noise-induced phase slips. The method is based on phase dynamics, with Bayesian inference of the time-evolving parameters being achieved by shaping the prior densities to incorporate knowledge of previous samples. We now present the method in detail using numerically generated data, data from an analog electronic circuit, and cardiorespiratory data. We also generalize the method to encompass networks of interacting oscillators and thus demonstrate its applicability to small-scale networks.

Mitogenomic analysis of the genus Panthera.

PubMed

Wei, Lei; Wu, Xiaobing; Zhu, Lixin; Jiang, Zhigang

2011-10-01

The complete sequences of the mitochondrial DNA genomes of Panthera tigris, Panthera pardus, and Panthera uncia were determined using the polymerase chain reaction method. The lengths of the complete mitochondrial DNA sequences of the three species were 16990, 16964, and 16773 bp, respectively. Each of the three mitochondrial DNA genomes included 13 protein-coding genes, 22 tRNA, two rRNA, one O(L)R, and one control region. The structures of the genomes were highly similar to those of Felis catus, Acinonyx jubatus, and Neofelis nebulosa. The phylogenies of the genus Panthera were inferred from two combined mitochondrial sequence data sets and the complete mitochondrial genome sequences, by MP (maximum parsimony), ML (maximum likelihood), and Bayesian analysis. The results showed that Panthera was composed of Panthera leo, P. uncia, P. pardus, Panthera onca, P. tigris, and N. nebulosa, which was included as the most basal member. The phylogeny within Panthera genus was N. nebulosa (P. tigris (P. onca (P. pardus, (P. leo, P. uncia)))). The divergence times for Panthera genus were estimated based on the ML branch lengths and four well-established calibration points. The results showed that at about 11.3 MYA, the Panthera genus separated from other felid species and then evolved into the several species of the genus. In detail, N. nebulosa was estimated to be founded about 8.66 MYA, P. tigris about 6.55 MYA, P. uncia about 4.63 MYA, and P. pardus about 4.35 MYA. All these estimated times were older than those estimated from the fossil records. The divergence event, evolutionary process, speciation, and distribution pattern of P. uncia, a species endemic to the central Asia with core habitats on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and surrounding highlands, mostly correlated with the geological tectonic events and intensive climate shifts that happened at 8, 3.6, 2.5, and 1.7 MYA on the plateau during the late Cenozoic period.

Whole-genome analyses of DS-1-like human G2P[4] and G8P[4] rotavirus strains from Eastern, Western and Southern Africa

PubMed Central

Nyaga, Martin M.; Stucker, Karla M.; Esona, Mathew D.; Jere, Khuzwayo C.; Mwinyi, Bakari; Shonhai, Annie; Tsolenyanu, Enyonam; Mulindwa, Augustine; Chibumbya, Julia N.; Adolfine, Hokororo; Halpin, Rebecca A.; Roy, Sunando; Stockwell, Timothy B.; Berejena, Chipo; Seheri, Mapaseka L.; Mwenda, Jason M.; Steele, A. Duncan; Wentworth, David E.

2018-01-01

Group A rotaviruses (RVAs) with distinct G and P genotype combinations have been reported globally. We report the genome composition and possible origin of seven G8P[4] and five G2P[4] human RVA strains based on the genetic evolution of all 11 genome segments at the nucleotide level. Twelve RVA ELISA positive stool samples collected in the representative countries of Eastern, Southern and West Africa during the 2007–2012 surveillance seasons were subjected to sequencing using the Ion Torrent PGM and Illumina MiSeq platforms. A reference-based assembly was performed using CLC Bio’s clc_ref_assemble_long program, and full-genome consensus sequences were obtained. With the exception of the neutralising antigen, VP7, all study strains exhibited the DS-1-like genome constellation (P[4]-I2-R2-C2-M2-A2-N2-T2-E2-H2) and clustered phylogenetically with reference strains having a DS-1-like genetic backbone. Comparison of the nucleotide and amino acid sequences with selected global cognate genome segments revealed nucleotide and amino acid sequence identities of 81.7–100 % and 90.6–100 %, respectively, with NSP4 gene segment showing the most diversity among the strains. Bayesian analyses of all gene sequences to estimate the time of divergence of the lineage indicated that divergence times ranged from 16 to 44 years, except for the NSP4 gene where the lineage seemed to arise in the more distant past at an estimated 203 years ago. However, the long-term effects of changes found within the NSP4 genome segment should be further explored, and thus we recommend continued whole-genome analyses from larger sample sets to determine the evolutionary mechanisms of the DS-1-like strains collected in Africa. PMID:24952422

Were sea level changes during the Pleistocene in the South Atlantic Coastal Plain a driver of speciation in Petunia (Solanaceae)?

PubMed

Ramos-Fregonezi, Aline M C; Fregonezi, Jeferson N; Cybis, Gabriela B; Fagundes, Nelson J R; Bonatto, Sandro L; Freitas, Loreta B

2015-05-20

Quaternary climatic changes led to variations in sea level and these variations played a significant role in the generation of marine terrace deposits in the South Atlantic Coastal Plain. The main consequence of the increase in sea level was local extinction or population displacement, such that coastal species would be found around the new coastline. Our main goal was to investigate the effects of sea level changes on the geographical structure and variability of genetic lineages from a Petunia species endemic to the South Atlantic Coastal Plain. We employed a phylogeographic approach based on plastid sequences obtained from individuals collected from the complete geographic distribution of Petunia integrifolia ssp. depauperata and its sister group. We used population genetics tests to evaluate the degree of genetic variation and structure among and within populations, and we used haplotype network analysis and Bayesian phylogenetic methods to estimate divergence times and population growth. We observed three major genetic lineages whose geographical distribution may be related to different transgression/regression events that occurred in this region during the Pleistocene. The divergence time between the monophyletic group P. integrifolia ssp. depauperata and its sister group (P. integrifolia ssp. integrifolia) was compatible with geological estimates of the availability of the coastal plain. Similarly, the origin of each genetic lineage is congruent with geological estimates of habitat availability. Diversification of P. integrifolia ssp. depauperata possibly occurred as a consequence of the marine transgression/regression cycles during the Pleistocene. In periods of high sea level, plants were most likely restricted to a refuge area corresponding to fossil dunes and granitic hills, from which they colonized the coast once the sea level came down. The modern pattern of lineage geographical distribution and population variation was established by a range expansion with serial founder effects conditioned on soil availability.

Refining value-at-risk estimates using a Bayesian Markov-switching GJR-GARCH copula-EVT model.

PubMed

Sampid, Marius Galabe; Hasim, Haslifah M; Dai, Hongsheng

2018-01-01

In this paper, we propose a model for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a Bayesian Markov-switching GJR-GARCH(1,1) model with skewed Student's-t innovation, copula functions and extreme value theory. A Bayesian Markov-switching GJR-GARCH(1,1) model that identifies non-constant volatility over time and allows the GARCH parameters to vary over time following a Markov process, is combined with copula functions and EVT to formulate the Bayesian Markov-switching GJR-GARCH(1,1) copula-EVT VaR model, which is then used to forecast the level of risk on financial asset returns. We further propose a new method for threshold selection in EVT analysis, which we term the hybrid method. Empirical and back-testing results show that the proposed VaR models capture VaR reasonably well in periods of calm and in periods of crisis.

Divergence between human populations estimated from linkage disequilibrium.

PubMed

Sved, John A; McRae, Allan F; Visscher, Peter M

2008-12-01

Observed linkage disequilibrium (LD) between genetic markers in different populations descended independently from a common ancestral population can be used to estimate their absolute time of divergence, because the correlation of LD between populations will be reduced each generation by an amount that, approximately, depends only on the recombination rate between markers. Although drift leads to divergence in allele frequencies, it has less effect on divergence in LD values. We derived the relationship between LD and time of divergence and verified it with coalescent simulations. We then used HapMap Phase II data to estimate time of divergence between human populations. Summed over large numbers of pairs of loci, we find a positive correlation of LD between African and non-African populations at levels of up to approximately 0.3 cM. We estimate that the observed correlation of LD is consistent with an effective separation time of approximately 1,000 generations or approximately 25,000 years before present. The most likely explanation for such relatively low separation times is the existence of substantial levels of migration between populations after the initial separation. Theory and results from coalescent simulations confirm that low levels of migration can lead to a downward bias in the estimate of separation time.

Evolution of plant growth and defense in a continental introduction.

PubMed

Agrawal, Anurag A; Hastings, Amy P; Bradburd, Gideon S; Woods, Ellen C; Züst, Tobias; Harvey, Jeffrey A; Bukovinszky, Tibor

2015-07-01

Substantial research has addressed adaptation of nonnative biota to novel environments, yet surprisingly little work has integrated population genetic structure and the mechanisms underlying phenotypic differentiation in ecologically important traits. We report on studies of the common milkweed Asclepias syriaca, which was introduced from North America to Europe over the past 400 years and which lacks most of its specialized herbivores in the introduced range. Using 10 populations from each continent grown in a common environment, we identified several growth and defense traits that have diverged, despite low neutral genetic differentiation between continents. We next developed a Bayesian modeling approach to account for relationships between molecular and phenotypic differences, confirming that continental trait differentiation was greater than expected from neutral genetic differentiation. We found evidence that growth-related traits adaptively diverged within and between continents. Inducible defenses triggered by monarch butterfly herbivory were substantially reduced in European populations, and this reduction in inducibility was concordant with altered phytohormonal dynamics, reduced plant growth, and a trade-off with constitutive investment. Freedom from the community of native and specialized herbivores may have favored constitutive over induced defense. Our replicated analysis of plant growth and defense, including phenotypically plastic traits, suggests adaptive evolution following a continental introduction.

Evolution of foraging behaviour: Deep intra-generic genetic divergence between territorial and non-territorial southern African patellid limpets.

PubMed

Mmonwa, Kolobe L; Teske, Peter R; McQuaid, Christopher D; Barker, Nigel P

2017-12-01

Southern Africa is a biodiversity hotspot of patellid limpets, with three genera (Helcion, Cymbula and Scutellastra) identified and described in the region. Scutellastra is the most diverse and most frequently studied of these and, along with Cymbula, includes species with territorial and non-territorial foraging behaviours. We used three mitochondrial markers (12S rRNA, 16S rRNA and COI) and one nuclear marker (ATPSβ intron) to assess evolutionary relationships among species of Cymbula and Scutellastra with these two foraging behaviours and to identify which foraging mode is the more ancient. Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference phylogenetic analyses revealed that the species sharing a foraging type are monophyletic in both genera. Territoriality is a derived character, as the clades with this foraging type are nested within a tree that otherwise comprises non-territorial taxa. These include Helcion, which was recovered as sister to the Cymbula/Scutellastra clade, and the next basal genus, Patella, which is ancestral to all southern African patellogastropods. Deep genetic divergence between the two foraging traits reflects strong adaptive effects of resource partitioning in the evolution of southern African patellid limpets. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of bayesian networks to real-time flood risk estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrote, L.; Molina, M.; Blasco, G.

2003-04-01

This paper presents the application of a computational paradigm taken from the field of artificial intelligence - the bayesian network - to model the behaviour of hydrologic basins during floods. The final goal of this research is to develop representation techniques for hydrologic simulation models in order to define, develop and validate a mechanism, supported by a software environment, oriented to build decision models for the prediction and management of river floods in real time. The emphasis is placed on providing decision makers with tools to incorporate their knowledge of basin behaviour, usually formulated in terms of rainfall-runoff models, in the process of real-time decision making during floods. A rainfall-runoff model is only a step in the process of decision making. If a reliable rainfall forecast is available and the rainfall-runoff model is well calibrated, decisions can be based mainly on model results. However, in most practical situations, uncertainties in rainfall forecasts or model performance have to be incorporated in the decision process. The computation paradigm adopted for the simulation of hydrologic processes is the bayesian network. A bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph that represents causal influences between linked variables. Under this representation, uncertain qualitative variables are related through causal relations quantified with conditional probabilities. The solution algorithm allows the computation of the expected probability distribution of unknown variables conditioned to the observations. An approach to represent hydrologic processes by bayesian networks with temporal and spatial extensions is presented in this paper, together with a methodology for the development of bayesian models using results produced by deterministic hydrologic simulation models

Parameter Estimation with Entangled Photons Produced by Parametric Down-Conversion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cable, Hugo; Durkin, Gabriel A.

2010-01-01

We explore the advantages offered by twin light beams produced in parametric down-conversion for precision measurement. The symmetry of these bipartite quantum states, even under losses, suggests that monitoring correlations between the divergent beams permits a high-precision inference of any symmetry-breaking effect, e.g., fiber birefringence. We show that the quantity of entanglement is not the key feature for such an instrument. In a lossless setting, scaling of precision at the ultimate "Heisenberg" limit is possible with photon counting alone. Even as photon losses approach 100% the precision is shot-noise limited, and we identify the crossover point between quantum and classical precision as a function of detected flux. The predicted hypersensitivity is demonstrated with a Bayesian simulation.

Parameter estimation with entangled photons produced by parametric down-conversion.

PubMed

Cable, Hugo; Durkin, Gabriel A

2010-07-02

We explore the advantages offered by twin light beams produced in parametric down-conversion for precision measurement. The symmetry of these bipartite quantum states, even under losses, suggests that monitoring correlations between the divergent beams permits a high-precision inference of any symmetry-breaking effect, e.g., fiber birefringence. We show that the quantity of entanglement is not the key feature for such an instrument. In a lossless setting, scaling of precision at the ultimate "Heisenberg" limit is possible with photon counting alone. Even as photon losses approach 100% the precision is shot-noise limited, and we identify the crossover point between quantum and classical precision as a function of detected flux. The predicted hypersensitivity is demonstrated with a Bayesian simulation.

Encoding dependence in Bayesian causal networks

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Bayesian networks (BNs) represent complex, uncertain spatio-temporal dynamics by propagation of conditional probabilities between identifiable states with a testable causal interaction model. Typically, they assume random variables are discrete in time and space with a static network structure that ...

Identification of the same polyomavirus species in different African horseshoe bat species is indicative of short-range host-switching events.

PubMed

Carr, Michael; Gonzalez, Gabriel; Sasaki, Michihito; Dool, Serena E; Ito, Kimihito; Ishii, Akihiro; Hang'ombe, Bernard M; Mweene, Aaron S; Teeling, Emma C; Hall, William W; Orba, Yasuko; Sawa, Hirofumi

2017-10-06

Polyomaviruses (PyVs) are considered to be highly host-specific in different mammalian species, with no well-supported evidence for host-switching events. We examined the species diversity and host specificity of PyVs in horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus spp.), a broadly distributed and highly speciose mammalian genus. We annotated six PyV genomes, comprising four new PyV species, based on pairwise identity within the large T antigen (LTAg) coding region. Phylogenetic comparisons revealed two instances of highly related PyV species, one in each of the Alphapolyomavirus and Betapolyomavirus genera, present in different horseshoe bat host species (Rhinolophus blasii and R. simulator), suggestive of short-range host-switching events. The two pairs of Rhinolophus PyVs in different horseshoe bat host species were 99.9 and 88.8 % identical with each other over their respective LTAg coding sequences and thus constitute the same virus species. To corroborate the species identification of the bat hosts, we analysed mitochondrial cytb and a large nuclear intron dataset derived from six independent and neutrally evolving loci for bat taxa of interest. Bayesian estimates of the ages of the most recent common ancestors suggested that the near-identical and more distantly related PyV species diverged approximately 9.1E4 (5E3-2.8E5) and 9.9E6 (4E6-18E6) years before the present, respectively, in contrast to the divergence times of the bat host species: 12.4E6 (10.4E6-15.4E6). Our findings provide evidence that short-range host-switching of PyVs is possible in horseshoe bats, suggesting that PyV transmission between closely related mammalian species can occur.

Atlantic forests to the all Americas: Biogeographical history and divergence times of Neotropical Ficus (Moraceae).

PubMed

Machado, Anderson Ferreira Pinto; Rønsted, Nina; Bruun-Lund, Sam; Pereira, Rodrigo Augusto Santinelo; Paganucci de Queiroz, Luciano

2018-05-01

Ficus (Moraceae) is well diversified in the Neotropics with two lineages inhabiting the wet forests of this region. The hemiepiphytes of section Americanae are the most diversified with c. 120 species, whereas section Pharmacosycea includes about 20 species mostly with a terrestrial habit. To reconstruct the biogeographical history and diversification of Ficus in the Americas, we produced a dated Bayesian phylogenetic hypothesis of Neotropical Ficus including two thirds of the species sequenced for five nuclear regions (At103, ETS, G3pdh, ITS/5.8S and Tpi). Ancestral range was estimated using all models available in Biogeobears and Binary State Speciation and Extinction analysis was used to evaluate the role of the initial habit and propagule size in diversification. The phylogenetic analyses resolved both Neotropical sections as monophyletic but the internal relationships between species in section Americanae remain unclear. Ficus started their diversification in the Neotropics between the Oligocene and Miocene. The genus experienced two bursts of diversification: in the middle Miocene and the Pliocene. Colonization events from the Amazon to adjacent areas coincide with the end of the Pebas system (10 Mya) and the connection of landmasses. Divergence of endemic species in the Atlantic forest is inferred to have happened after its isolation and the opening and consolidation of the Cerrado. Our results suggest a complex diversification in the Atlantic forest differing between postulated refuges and more instable areas in the South distribution of the forest. Finally the selection for initial hemiepiphytic habit and small to medium propagule size influenced the diversification and current distribution of the species at Neotropical forests marked by the historical instability and long-distance dispersal. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Strong population structure of Schizopygopsis chengi and the origin of S. chengi baoxingensis revealed by mtDNA and microsatellite markers.

PubMed

Liu, Dongqi; Hou, Feixia; Liu, Qin; Zhang, Xiuyue; Yan, Taiming; Song, Zhaobin

2015-02-01

The Tibetan Plateau underwent dramatic geological and climatic changes, which had important implications for genetic divergence and population dynamics of freshwater fish populations. Fluctuations of the ecogeographical environment and major hydrographic formations might have promoted the formation of new subspecies or species. In order to understand the impact of plateau uplift on freshwater fish evolutionary history, we estimated the genetic diversity and population structure in two subspecies of Schizopygopsis chengi (S. c. chengi and S. c. baoxingensis) in upper Yangtze River in Tibetan Plateau area using mitochondrial DNA control region and eight microsatellite markers, which suggested that there was a close genetic relationship. S. chengi showed some significant genetic structure that did not correlate with geographic distance. Bayesian assignment tests indicated that S. chengi samples in the study could be divided into four populations: upstream population, midstream population, tributary population and S. c. baoxingensis population. S. c. chengi and S. c. baoxingensis showed significant genetic divergence. However, phylogenetic analysis, population structure analysis and historical gene flow estimation suggested that there was close genetic relationship between S. c. baoxingensis and the Dawei population which belongs to populations of S. c. chengi. The time that Dawei population suffered from a bottleneck and S. c. baoxingensis underwent population expansion was congruent with the last glacial period on the Tibetan Plateau. The results confirmed the hypothesis that the Dawei River and Baoxing River were once connected, and the Dawei and Baoxing populations originated from a single population, but were isolated into separate populations because of crustal movements and the Baoxing population evolved as S. c. baoxingensis.

Mitogenome Phylogenetics: The Impact of Using Single Regions and Partitioning Schemes on Topology, Substitution Rate and Divergence Time Estimation

PubMed Central

Duchêne, Sebastián; Archer, Frederick I.; Vilstrup, Julia; Caballero, Susana; Morin, Phillip A.

2011-01-01

The availability of mitochondrial genome sequences is growing as a result of recent technological advances in molecular biology. In phylogenetic analyses, the complete mitogenome is increasingly becoming the marker of choice, usually providing better phylogenetic resolution and precision relative to traditional markers such as cytochrome b (CYTB) and the control region (CR). In some cases, the differences in phylogenetic estimates between mitogenomic and single-gene markers have yielded incongruent conclusions. By comparing phylogenetic estimates made from different genes, we identified the most informative mitochondrial regions and evaluated the minimum amount of data necessary to reproduce the same results as the mitogenome. We compared results among individual genes and the mitogenome for recently published complete mitogenome datasets of selected delphinids (Delphinidae) and killer whales (genus Orcinus). Using Bayesian phylogenetic methods, we investigated differences in estimation of topologies, divergence dates, and clock-like behavior among genes for both datasets. Although the most informative regions were not the same for each taxonomic group (COX1, CYTB, ND3 and ATP6 for Orcinus, and ND1, COX1 and ND4 for Delphinidae), in both cases they were equivalent to less than a quarter of the complete mitogenome. This suggests that gene information content can vary among groups, but can be adequately represented by a portion of the complete sequence. Although our results indicate that complete mitogenomes provide the highest phylogenetic resolution and most precise date estimates, a minimum amount of data can be selected using our approach when the complete sequence is unavailable. Studies based on single genes can benefit from the addition of a few more mitochondrial markers, producing topologies and date estimates similar to those obtained using the entire mitogenome. PMID:22073275

A multi-locus analysis of phylogenetic relationships within grass subfamily Pooideae (Poaceae) inferred from sequences of nuclear single copy gene regions compared with plastid DNA.

PubMed

Hochbach, Anne; Schneider, Julia; Röser, Martin

2015-06-01

To investigate phylogenetic relationships within the grass subfamily Pooideae we studied about 50 taxa covering all recognized tribes, using one plastid DNA (cpDNA) marker (matK gene-3'trnK exon) and for the first time four nuclear single copy gene loci. DNA sequence information from two parts of the nuclear genes topoisomerase 6 (Topo6) spanning the exons 8-13 and 17-19, the exons 9-13 encoding plastid acetyl-CoA-carboxylase (Acc1) and the partial exon 1 of phytochrome B (PhyB) were generated. Individual and nuclear combined data were evaluated using maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. All of the phylogenetic results show Brachyelytrum and the tribe Nardeae as earliest diverging lineages within the subfamily. The 'core' Pooideae (Hordeeae and the Aveneae/Poeae tribe complex) are also strongly supported, as well as the monophyly of the tribes Brachypodieae, Meliceae and Stipeae (except PhyB). The beak grass tribe Diarrheneae and the tribe Duthieeae are not monophyletic in some of the analyses. However, the combined nuclear DNA (nDNA) tree yields the highest resolution and the best delimitation of the tribes, and provides the following evolutionary hypothesis for the tribes: Brachyelytrum, Nardeae, Duthieeae, Meliceae, Stipeae, Diarrheneae, Brachypodieae and the 'core' Pooideae. Within the individual datasets, the phylogenetic trees obtained from Topo6 exon 8-13 shows the most interesting results. The divergent positions of some clone sequences of Ampelodesmos mauritanicus and Trikeraia pappiformis, for instance, may indicate a hybrid origin of these stipoid taxa. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Postglacial range shift and demographic expansion of the marine intertidal snail Batillaria attramentaria

PubMed Central

Ho, Phuong-Thao; Kwan, Ye-Seul; Kim, Boa; Won, Yong-Jin

2015-01-01

To address the impacts of past climate changes, particularly since the last glacial period, on the history of the distribution and demography of marine species, we investigated the evolutionary and demographic responses of the intertidal batillariid gastropod, Batillaria attramentaria, to these changes, using the snail as a model species in the northwest Pacific. We applied phylogeographic and divergence population genetic approaches to mitochondrial COI sequences from B. attramentaria. To cover much of its distributional range, 197 individuals collected throughout Korea and 507 publically available sequences (mostly from Japan) were used. Finally, a Bayesian skyline plot (BSP) method was applied to reconstruct the demographic history of this species. We found four differentiated geographic groups around Korea, confirming the presence of two distinct, geographically subdivided haplogroups on the Japanese coastlines along the bifurcated routes of the warm Tsushima and Kuroshio Currents. These two haplogroups were estimated to have begun to split approximately 400,000 years ago. Population divergence analysis supported the hypothesis that the Yellow Sea was populated by a northward range expansion of a small fraction of founders that split from a southern ancestral population since the last glacial maximum (LGM: 26,000–19,000 years ago), when the southern area became re-submerged. BSP analyses on six geographically and genetically defined groups in Korea and Japan consistently demonstrated that each group has exponentially increased approximately since the LGM. This study resolved the phylogeography of B. attramentaria as a series of events connected over space and time; while paleoceanographic conditions determining the connectivity of neighboring seas in East Asia are responsible for the vicariance of this species, the postglacial sea-level rise and warming temperatures have played a crucial role in rapid range shifts and broad demographic expansions of its populations. PMID:25691968

Out of Borneo: biogeography, phylogeny and divergence date estimates of Artocarpus (Moraceae)

PubMed Central

Gardner, Elliot M.; Harris, Robert; Chaveerach, Arunrat; Pereira, Joan T.

2017-01-01

Abstract Background and Aims The breadfruit genus (Artocarpus, Moraceae) includes valuable underutilized fruit tree crops with a centre of diversity in Southeast Asia. It belongs to the monophyletic tribe Artocarpeae, whose only other members include two small neotropical genera. This study aimed to reconstruct the phylogeny, estimate divergence dates and infer ancestral ranges of Artocarpeae, especially Artocarpus, to better understand spatial and temporal evolutionary relationships and dispersal patterns in a geologically complex region. Methods To investigate the phylogeny and biogeography of Artocarpeae, this study used Bayesian and maximum likelihood approaches to analyze DNA sequences from six plastid and two nuclear regions from 75% of Artocarpus species, both neotropical Artocarpeae genera, and members of all other Moraceae tribes. Six fossil-based calibrations within the Moraceae family were used to infer divergence times. Ancestral areas and estimated dispersal events were also inferred. Key Results Artocarpeae, Artocarpus and four monophyletic Artocarpus subgenera were well supported. A late Cretaceous origin of the Artocarpeae tribe in the Americas is inferred, followed by Eocene radiation of Artocarpus in Asia, with the greatest diversification occurring during the Miocene. Borneo is reconstructed as the ancestral range of Artocarpus, with dozens of independent in situ diversification events inferred there, as well as dispersal events to other regions of Southeast Asia. Dispersal pathways of Artocarpus and its ancestors are proposed. Conclusions Borneo was central in the diversification of the genus Artocarpus and probably served as the centre from which species dispersed and diversified in several directions. The greatest amount of diversification is inferred to have occurred during the Miocene, when sea levels fluctuated and land connections frequently existed between Borneo, mainland Asia, Sumatra and Java. Many species found in these areas have extant overlapping ranges, suggesting that sympatric speciation may have occurred. By contrast, Artocarpus diversity east of Borneo (where many of the islands have no historical connections to the landmasses of the Sunda and Sahul shelves) is unique and probably the product of over water long-distance dispersal events and subsequent diversification in allopatry. This work represents the most comprehensive Artocarpus phylogeny and biogeography study to date and supports Borneo as an evolutionary biodiversity hotspot. PMID:28073771

iGLASS: An Improvement to the GLASS Method for Estimating Species Trees from Gene Trees

PubMed Central

Rosenberg, Noah A.

2012-01-01

Abstract Several methods have been designed to infer species trees from gene trees while taking into account gene tree/species tree discordance. Although some of these methods provide consistent species tree topology estimates under a standard model, most either do not estimate branch lengths or are computationally slow. An exception, the GLASS method of Mossel and Roch, is consistent for the species tree topology, estimates branch lengths, and is computationally fast. However, GLASS systematically overestimates divergence times, leading to biased estimates of species tree branch lengths. By assuming a multispecies coalescent model in which multiple lineages are sampled from each of two taxa at L independent loci, we derive the distribution of the waiting time until the first interspecific coalescence occurs between the two taxa, considering all loci and measuring from the divergence time. We then use the mean of this distribution to derive a correction to the GLASS estimator of pairwise divergence times. We show that our improved estimator, which we call iGLASS, consistently estimates the divergence time between a pair of taxa as the number of loci approaches infinity, and that it is an unbiased estimator of divergence times when one lineage is sampled per taxon. We also show that many commonly used clustering methods can be combined with the iGLASS estimator of pairwise divergence times to produce a consistent estimator of the species tree topology. Through simulations, we show that iGLASS can greatly reduce the bias and mean squared error in obtaining estimates of divergence times in a species tree. PMID:22216756

Cryptic diversity and deep divergence in an upper Amazonian leaflitter frog, Eleutherodactylus ockendeni

PubMed Central

Elmer, Kathryn R; Dávila, José A; Lougheed, Stephen C

2007-01-01

Background The forests of the upper Amazon basin harbour some of the world's highest anuran species richness, but to date we have only the sparsest understanding of the distribution of genetic diversity within and among species in this region. To quantify region-wide genealogical patterns and to test for the presence of deep intraspecific divergences that have been documented in some other neotropical anurans, we developed a molecular phylogeny of the wide-spread terrestrial leaflitter frog Eleutherodactylus ockendeni (Leptodactylidae) from 13 localities throughout its range in Ecuador using data from two mitochondrial genes (16S and cyt b; 1246 base pairs). We examined the relation between divergence of mtDNA and the nuclear genome, as sampled by five species-specific microsatellite loci, to evaluate indirectly whether lineages are reproductively isolated where they co-occur. Our extensive phylogeographic survey thus assesses the spatial distribution of E. ockendeni genetic diversity across eastern Ecuador. Results We identified three distinct and well-supported clades within the Ecuadorean range of E. ockendeni: an uplands clade spanning north to south, a northeastern and central lowlands clade, and a central and southeastern clade, which is basal. Clades are separated by 12% to 15% net corrected p-distance for cytochrome b, with comparatively low sequence divergence within clades. Clades marginally overlap in some geographic areas (e.g., Napo River basin) but are reproductively isolated, evidenced by diagnostic differences in microsatellite PCR amplification profiles or DNA repeat number and coalescent analyses (in MDIV) best modelled without migration. Using Bayesian (BEAST) and net phylogenetic estimates, the Southeastern Clade diverged from the Upland/Lowland clades in the mid-Miocene or late Oligocene. Lowland and Upland clades speciated more recently, in the early or late Miocene. Conclusion Our findings uncover previously unsuspected cryptic species diversity within the common leaflitter frog E. ockendeni, with at least three different species in Ecuador. While these clades are clearly geographically circumscribed, they do not coincide with any existing landscape barriers. Divergences are ancient, from the Miocene, before the most dramatic mountain building in the Ecuadorean Andes. Therefore, this diversity is not a product of Pleistocene refuges. Our research coupled with other studies suggests that species richness in the upper Amazon is drastically underestimated by current inventories based on morphospecies. PMID:18154647

A Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for the molecular clock based on Bayesian ensembles of phylogenies

PubMed Central

Antoneli, Fernando; Passos, Fernando M.; Lopes, Luciano R.

2018-01-01

Divergence date estimates are central to understand evolutionary processes and depend, in the case of molecular phylogenies, on tests of molecular clocks. Here we propose two non-parametric tests of strict and relaxed molecular clocks built upon a framework that uses the empirical cumulative distribution (ECD) of branch lengths obtained from an ensemble of Bayesian trees and well known non-parametric (one-sample and two-sample) Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) goodness-of-fit test. In the strict clock case, the method consists in using the one-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test to directly test if the phylogeny is clock-like, in other words, if it follows a Poisson law. The ECD is computed from the discretized branch lengths and the parameter λ of the expected Poisson distribution is calculated as the average branch length over the ensemble of trees. To compensate for the auto-correlation in the ensemble of trees and pseudo-replication we take advantage of thinning and effective sample size, two features provided by Bayesian inference MCMC samplers. Finally, it is observed that tree topologies with very long or very short branches lead to Poisson mixtures and in this case we propose the use of the two-sample KS test with samples from two continuous branch length distributions, one obtained from an ensemble of clock-constrained trees and the other from an ensemble of unconstrained trees. Moreover, in this second form the test can also be applied to test for relaxed clock models. The use of a statistically equivalent ensemble of phylogenies to obtain the branch lengths ECD, instead of one consensus tree, yields considerable reduction of the effects of small sample size and provides a gain of power. PMID:29300759

Evaluating the Impact of Genomic Data and Priors on Bayesian Estimates of the Angiosperm Evolutionary Timescale.

PubMed

Foster, Charles S P; Sauquet, Hervê; van der Merwe, Marlien; McPherson, Hannah; Rossetto, Maurizio; Ho, Simon Y W

2017-05-01

The evolutionary timescale of angiosperms has long been a key question in biology. Molecular estimates of this timescale have shown considerable variation, being influenced by differences in taxon sampling, gene sampling, fossil calibrations, evolutionary models, and choices of priors. Here, we analyze a data set comprising 76 protein-coding genes from the chloroplast genomes of 195 taxa spanning 86 families, including novel genome sequences for 11 taxa, to evaluate the impact of models, priors, and gene sampling on Bayesian estimates of the angiosperm evolutionary timescale. Using a Bayesian relaxed molecular-clock method, with a core set of 35 minimum and two maximum fossil constraints, we estimated that crown angiosperms arose 221 (251-192) Ma during the Triassic. Based on a range of additional sensitivity and subsampling analyses, we found that our date estimates were generally robust to large changes in the parameters of the birth-death tree prior and of the model of rate variation across branches. We found an exception to this when we implemented fossil calibrations in the form of highly informative gamma priors rather than as uniform priors on node ages. Under all other calibration schemes, including trials of seven maximum age constraints, we consistently found that the earliest divergences of angiosperm clades substantially predate the oldest fossils that can be assigned unequivocally to their crown group. Overall, our results and experiments with genome-scale data suggest that reliable estimates of the angiosperm crown age will require increased taxon sampling, significant methodological changes, and new information from the fossil record. [Angiospermae, chloroplast, genome, molecular dating, Triassic.]. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Tracing the spatio-temporal dynamics of endangered fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) within baleen whale (Mysticeti) lineages: a mitogenomic perspective.

PubMed

Yu, Jihyun; Nam, Bo-Hye; Yoon, Joon; Kim, Eun Bae; Park, Jung Youn; Kim, Heebal; Yoon, Sook Hee

2017-12-01

To explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of endangered fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) within the baleen whale (Mysticeti) lineages, we analyzed 148 published mitochondrial genome sequences of baleen whales. We used a Bayesian coalescent approach as well as Bayesian inferences and maximum likelihood methods. The results showed that the fin whales had a single maternal origin, and that there is a significant correlation between geographic location and evolution of global fin whales. The most recent common female ancestor of this species lived approximately 9.88 million years ago (Mya). Here, North Pacific fin whales first appeared about 7.48 Mya, followed by a subsequent divergence in Southern Hemisphere approximately 6.63 Mya and North Atlantic about 4.42 Mya. Relatively recently, approximately 1.76 and 1.42 Mya, there were two additional occurrences of North Pacific populations; one originated from the Southern Hemisphere and the other from an uncertain location. The evolutionary rate of this species was 1.002 × 10 -3 substitutions/site/My. Our Bayesian skyline plot illustrates that the fin whale population has the rapid expansion event since ~ 2.5 Mya, during the Quaternary glaciation stage. Additionally, this study indicates that the fin whale has a sister group relationship with humpback whale (Meganoptera novaeangliae) within the baleen whale lineages. Of the 16 genomic regions, NADH5 showed the most powerful signal for baleen whale phylogenetics. Interestingly, fin whales have 16 species-specific amino acid residues in eight mitochondrial genes: NADH2, COX2, COX3, ATPase6, ATPase8, NADH4, NADH5, and Cytb.

Nonparametric Bayesian Segmentation of a Multivariate Inhomogeneous Space-Time Poisson Process.

PubMed

Ding, Mingtao; He, Lihan; Dunson, David; Carin, Lawrence

2012-12-01

A nonparametric Bayesian model is proposed for segmenting time-evolving multivariate spatial point process data. An inhomogeneous Poisson process is assumed, with a logistic stick-breaking process (LSBP) used to encourage piecewise-constant spatial Poisson intensities. The LSBP explicitly favors spatially contiguous segments, and infers the number of segments based on the observed data. The temporal dynamics of the segmentation and of the Poisson intensities are modeled with exponential correlation in time, implemented in the form of a first-order autoregressive model for uniformly sampled discrete data, and via a Gaussian process with an exponential kernel for general temporal sampling. We consider and compare two different inference techniques: a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, which has relatively high computational complexity; and an approximate and efficient variational Bayesian analysis. The model is demonstrated with a simulated example and a real example of space-time crime events in Cincinnati, Ohio, USA.

Application of Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filter in parameter calibration of groundwater flow model in PingTung Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, Shao-Yong; Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2017-04-01

Due to the limited hydrogeological observation data and high levels of uncertainty within, parameter estimation of the groundwater model has been an important issue. There are many methods of parameter estimation, for example, Kalman filter provides a real-time calibration of parameters through measurement of groundwater monitoring wells, related methods such as Extended Kalman Filter and Ensemble Kalman Filter are widely applied in groundwater research. However, Kalman Filter method is limited to linearity. This study propose a novel method, Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filtering, which provides a method that can considers the uncertainty of data in parameter estimation. With this two methods, we can estimate parameter by given hard data (certain) and soft data (uncertain) in the same time. In this study, we use Python and QGIS in groundwater model (MODFLOW) and development of Extended Kalman Filter and Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filtering in Python in parameter estimation. This method may provide a conventional filtering method and also consider the uncertainty of data. This study was conducted through numerical model experiment to explore, combine Bayesian maximum entropy filter and a hypothesis for the architecture of MODFLOW groundwater model numerical estimation. Through the virtual observation wells to simulate and observe the groundwater model periodically. The result showed that considering the uncertainty of data, the Bayesian maximum entropy filter will provide an ideal result of real-time parameters estimation.

Origin of marine planktonic cyanobacteria.

PubMed

Sánchez-Baracaldo, Patricia

2015-12-01

Marine planktonic cyanobacteria contributed to the widespread oxygenation of the oceans towards the end of the Pre-Cambrian and their evolutionary origin represents a key transition in the geochemical evolution of the Earth surface. Little is known, however, about the evolutionary events that led to the appearance of marine planktonic cyanobacteria. I present here phylogenomic (135 proteins and two ribosomal RNAs), Bayesian relaxed molecular clock (18 proteins, SSU and LSU) and Bayesian stochastic character mapping analyses from 131 cyanobacteria genomes with the aim to unravel key evolutionary steps involved in the origin of marine planktonic cyanobacteria. While filamentous cell types evolved early on at around 2,600-2,300 Mya and likely dominated microbial mats in benthic environments for most of the Proterozoic (2,500-542 Mya), marine planktonic cyanobacteria evolved towards the end of the Proterozoic and early Phanerozoic. Crown groups of modern terrestrial and/or benthic coastal cyanobacteria appeared during the late Paleoproterozoic to early Mesoproterozoic. Decrease in cell diameter and loss of filamentous forms contributed to the evolution of unicellular planktonic lineages during the middle of the Mesoproterozoic (1,600-1,000 Mya) in freshwater environments. This study shows that marine planktonic cyanobacteria evolved from benthic marine and some diverged from freshwater ancestors during the Neoproterozoic (1,000-542 Mya).

Origin of marine planktonic cyanobacteria

PubMed Central

Sánchez-Baracaldo, Patricia

2015-01-01

Marine planktonic cyanobacteria contributed to the widespread oxygenation of the oceans towards the end of the Pre-Cambrian and their evolutionary origin represents a key transition in the geochemical evolution of the Earth surface. Little is known, however, about the evolutionary events that led to the appearance of marine planktonic cyanobacteria. I present here phylogenomic (135 proteins and two ribosomal RNAs), Bayesian relaxed molecular clock (18 proteins, SSU and LSU) and Bayesian stochastic character mapping analyses from 131 cyanobacteria genomes with the aim to unravel key evolutionary steps involved in the origin of marine planktonic cyanobacteria. While filamentous cell types evolved early on at around 2,600–2,300 Mya and likely dominated microbial mats in benthic environments for most of the Proterozoic (2,500–542 Mya), marine planktonic cyanobacteria evolved towards the end of the Proterozoic and early Phanerozoic. Crown groups of modern terrestrial and/or benthic coastal cyanobacteria appeared during the late Paleoproterozoic to early Mesoproterozoic. Decrease in cell diameter and loss of filamentous forms contributed to the evolution of unicellular planktonic lineages during the middle of the Mesoproterozoic (1,600–1,000 Mya) in freshwater environments. This study shows that marine planktonic cyanobacteria evolved from benthic marine and some diverged from freshwater ancestors during the Neoproterozoic (1,000–542 Mya). PMID:26621203

Inferring population history with DIY ABC: a user-friendly approach to approximate Bayesian computation

PubMed Central

Cornuet, Jean-Marie; Santos, Filipe; Beaumont, Mark A.; Robert, Christian P.; Marin, Jean-Michel; Balding, David J.; Guillemaud, Thomas; Estoup, Arnaud

2008-01-01

Summary: Genetic data obtained on population samples convey information about their evolutionary history. Inference methods can extract part of this information but they require sophisticated statistical techniques that have been made available to the biologist community (through computer programs) only for simple and standard situations typically involving a small number of samples. We propose here a computer program (DIY ABC) for inference based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), in which scenarios can be customized by the user to fit many complex situations involving any number of populations and samples. Such scenarios involve any combination of population divergences, admixtures and population size changes. DIY ABC can be used to compare competing scenarios, estimate parameters for one or more scenarios and compute bias and precision measures for a given scenario and known values of parameters (the current version applies to unlinked microsatellite data). This article describes key methods used in the program and provides its main features. The analysis of one simulated and one real dataset, both with complex evolutionary scenarios, illustrates the main possibilities of DIY ABC. Availability: The software DIY ABC is freely available at http://www.montpellier.inra.fr/CBGP/diyabc. Contact: j.cornuet@imperial.ac.uk Supplementary information: Supplementary data are also available at http://www.montpellier.inra.fr/CBGP/diyabc PMID:18842597

Traffic Video Image Segmentation Model Based on Bayesian and Spatio-Temporal Markov Random Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Jun; Bao, Xu; Li, Dawei; Yin, Yongwen

2017-10-01

Traffic video image is a kind of dynamic image and its background and foreground is changed at any time, which results in the occlusion. In this case, using the general method is more difficult to get accurate image segmentation. A segmentation algorithm based on Bayesian and Spatio-Temporal Markov Random Field is put forward, which respectively build the energy function model of observation field and label field to motion sequence image with Markov property, then according to Bayesian' rule, use the interaction of label field and observation field, that is the relationship of label field’s prior probability and observation field’s likelihood probability, get the maximum posterior probability of label field’s estimation parameter, use the ICM model to extract the motion object, consequently the process of segmentation is finished. Finally, the segmentation methods of ST - MRF and the Bayesian combined with ST - MRF were analyzed. Experimental results: the segmentation time in Bayesian combined with ST-MRF algorithm is shorter than in ST-MRF, and the computing workload is small, especially in the heavy traffic dynamic scenes the method also can achieve better segmentation effect.

Rapid allopolyploid radiation of moonwort ferns (Botrychium; Ophioglossaceae) revealed by PacBio sequencing of homologous and homeologous nuclear regions.

PubMed

Dauphin, Benjamin; Grant, Jason R; Farrar, Donald R; Rothfels, Carl J

2018-03-01

Polyploidy is a major speciation process in vascular plants, and is postulated to be particularly important in shaping the diversity of extant ferns. However, limitations in the availability of bi-parental markers for ferns have greatly limited phylogenetic investigation of polyploidy in this group. With a large number of allopolyploid species, the genus Botrychium is a classic example in ferns where recurrent polyploidy is postulated to have driven frequent speciation events. Here, we use PacBio sequencing and the PURC bioinformatics pipeline to capture all homeologous or allelic copies of four long (∼1 kb) low-copy nuclear regions from a sample of 45 specimens (25 diploids and 20 polyploids) representing 37 Botrychium taxa, and three outgroups. This sample includes most currently recognized Botrychium species in Europe and North America, and the majority of our specimens were genotyped with co-dominant nuclear allozymes to ensure species identification. We analyzed the sequence data using maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian inference (BI) concatenated-data ("gene tree") approaches to explore the relationships among Botrychium species. Finally, we estimated divergence times among Botrychium lineages and inferred the multi-labeled polyploid species tree showing the origins of the polyploid taxa, and their relationships to each other and to their diploid progenitors. We found strong support for the monophyly of the major lineages within Botrychium and identified most of the parental donors of the polyploids; these results largely corroborate earlier morphological and allozyme-based investigations. Each polyploid had at least two distinct homeologs, indicating that all sampled polyploids are likely allopolyploids (rather than autopolyploids). Our divergence-time analyses revealed that these allopolyploid lineages originated recently-within the last two million years-and thus that the genus has undergone a recent radiation, correlated with multiple independent allopolyploidizations across the phylogeny. Also, we found strong parental biases in the formation of allopolyploids, with individual diploid species participating multiple times as either the maternal or paternal donor (but not both). Finally, we discuss the role of polyploidy in the evolutionary history of Botrychium and the interspecific reproductive barriers possibly involved in these parental biases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian wavelet PCA methodology for turbomachinery damage diagnosis under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Shengli; Jiang, Xiaomo; Huang, Jinzhi; Yang, Shuhua; Wang, Xiaofang

2016-12-01

Centrifugal compressor often suffers various defects such as impeller cracking, resulting in forced outage of the total plant. Damage diagnostics and condition monitoring of such a turbomachinery system has become an increasingly important and powerful tool to prevent potential failure in components and reduce unplanned forced outage and further maintenance costs, while improving reliability, availability and maintainability of a turbomachinery system. This paper presents a probabilistic signal processing methodology for damage diagnostics using multiple time history data collected from different locations of a turbomachine, considering data uncertainty and multivariate correlation. The proposed methodology is based on the integration of three advanced state-of-the-art data mining techniques: discrete wavelet packet transform, Bayesian hypothesis testing, and probabilistic principal component analysis. The multiresolution wavelet analysis approach is employed to decompose a time series signal into different levels of wavelet coefficients. These coefficients represent multiple time-frequency resolutions of a signal. Bayesian hypothesis testing is then applied to each level of wavelet coefficient to remove possible imperfections. The ratio of posterior odds Bayesian approach provides a direct means to assess whether there is imperfection in the decomposed coefficients, thus avoiding over-denoising. Power spectral density estimated by the Welch method is utilized to evaluate the effectiveness of Bayesian wavelet cleansing method. Furthermore, the probabilistic principal component analysis approach is developed to reduce dimensionality of multiple time series and to address multivariate correlation and data uncertainty for damage diagnostics. The proposed methodology and generalized framework is demonstrated with a set of sensor data collected from a real-world centrifugal compressor with impeller cracks, through both time series and contour analyses of vibration signal and principal components.

When can stress facilitate divergence by altering time to flowering?

PubMed

Jordan, Crispin Y; Ally, Dilara; Hodgins, Kathryn A

2015-12-01

Stressors and heterogeneity are ubiquitous features of natural environments, and theory suggests that when environmental qualities alter flowering schedules through phenotypic plasticity, assortative mating can result that promotes evolutionary divergence. Therefore, it is important to determine whether common ecological stressors induce similar changes in flowering time. We review previous studies to determine whether two important stressors, water restriction and herbivory, induce consistent flowering time responses among species; for example, how often do water restriction and herbivory both delay flowering? We focus on the direction of change in flowering time, which affects the potential for divergence in heterogeneous environments. We also tested whether these stressors influenced time to flowering and nonphenology traits using Mimulus guttatus. The literature review suggests that water restriction has variable effects on flowering time, whereas herbivory delays flowering with exceptional consistency. In the Mimulus experiment, low water and herbivory advanced and delayed flowering, respectively. Overall, our results temper theoretical predictions for evolutionary divergence due to habitat-induced changes in flowering time; in particular, we discuss how accounting for variation in the direction of change in flowering time can either increase or decrease the potential for divergence. In addition, we caution against adaptive interpretations of stress-induced phenology shifts.

On the uncertainty in single molecule fluorescent lifetime and energy emission measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Emery N.; Zhang, Zhenhua; Mccollom, Alex D.

1995-01-01

Time-correlated single photon counting has recently been combined with mode-locked picosecond pulsed excitation to measure the fluorescent lifetimes and energy emissions of single molecules in a flow stream. Maximum likelihood (ML) and least square methods agree and are optimal when the number of detected photons is large however, in single molecule fluorescence experiments the number of detected photons can be less than 20, 67% of those can be noise and the detection time is restricted to 10 nanoseconds. Under the assumption that the photon signal and background noise are two independent inhomogeneous poisson processes, we derive the exact joint arrival time probably density of the photons collected in a single counting experiment performed in the presence of background noise. The model obviates the need to bin experimental data for analysis, and makes it possible to analyze formally the effect of background noise on the photon detection experiment using both ML or Bayesian methods. For both methods we derive the joint and marginal probability densities of the fluorescent lifetime and fluorescent emission. the ML and Bayesian methods are compared in an analysis of simulated single molecule fluorescence experiments of Rhodamine 110 using different combinations of expected background nose and expected fluorescence emission. While both the ML or Bayesian procedures perform well for analyzing fluorescence emissions, the Bayesian methods provide more realistic measures of uncertainty in the fluorescent lifetimes. The Bayesian methods would be especially useful for measuring uncertainty in fluorescent lifetime estimates in current single molecule flow stream experiments where the expected fluorescence emission is low. Both the ML and Bayesian algorithms can be automated for applications in molecular biology.

On the Uncertainty in Single Molecule Fluorescent Lifetime and Energy Emission Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Emery N.; Zhang, Zhenhua; McCollom, Alex D.

1996-01-01

Time-correlated single photon counting has recently been combined with mode-locked picosecond pulsed excitation to measure the fluorescent lifetimes and energy emissions of single molecules in a flow stream. Maximum likelihood (ML) and least squares methods agree and are optimal when the number of detected photons is large, however, in single molecule fluorescence experiments the number of detected photons can be less than 20, 67 percent of those can be noise, and the detection time is restricted to 10 nanoseconds. Under the assumption that the photon signal and background noise are two independent inhomogeneous Poisson processes, we derive the exact joint arrival time probability density of the photons collected in a single counting experiment performed in the presence of background noise. The model obviates the need to bin experimental data for analysis, and makes it possible to analyze formally the effect of background noise on the photon detection experiment using both ML or Bayesian methods. For both methods we derive the joint and marginal probability densities of the fluorescent lifetime and fluorescent emission. The ML and Bayesian methods are compared in an analysis of simulated single molecule fluorescence experiments of Rhodamine 110 using different combinations of expected background noise and expected fluorescence emission. While both the ML or Bayesian procedures perform well for analyzing fluorescence emissions, the Bayesian methods provide more realistic measures of uncertainty in the fluorescent lifetimes. The Bayesian methods would be especially useful for measuring uncertainty in fluorescent lifetime estimates in current single molecule flow stream experiments where the expected fluorescence emission is low. Both the ML and Bayesian algorithms can be automated for applications in molecular biology.

A molecular phylogeny of the nightjars (Aves: Caprimulgidae) suggests extensive conservation of primitive morphological traits across multiple lineages.

PubMed

Larsen, Carl; Speed, Michael; Harvey, Nicholas; Noyes, Harry A

2007-03-01

We report a molecular re-assessment of the classification of the nightjars which draws conclusions that are strongly at odds with the traditional, morphology-based classifications. We used maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods to compare the cytochrome b gene for 14 species from seven of the 15 genera of the Caprimulgidae and partial cytochrome b sequence data was available for a further seven species including three further genera. We found that within the Caprimulgidae there were four geographically isolated clades with bootstrap support greater than 70%. One of these clades contained just Chordeiles species, the remaining three clades each contained a mixture of genera including Caprimulgus sp. A clade of exclusively South American nightjars included the genera Caprimulgus, Uropsalis, Eleopthreptus and Hydropsalis. A clade of African and Eurasian birds included Caprimulgus and Macrodipteryx. Phalaenoptilus nuttallii and Caprimulgus vociferous formed a clade of North American birds. Two ecological factors appear to make morphological classification potentially misleading: first, the apparent retention of primitive anti-predator and foraging-related traits across genetically divergent groups; second, rapid divergence in other traits, especially those related to mating, which generate high levels of morphological divergence between species that are genetically very similar. The cytochrome b data suggests that the genus Caprimulgus is not monophyletic and is restricted to Africa and Eurasia and that Caprimulgus species from outside this area have been misclassified as a consequence of retention of primitive adaptations for crepuscular/nocturnal living. Some other genera also appear to have little support from the cytochrome b data.

Intrabreed Stratification Related to Divergent Selection Regimes in Purebred Dogs May Affect the Interpretation of Genetic Association Studies

PubMed Central

Chang, Melanie L.; Yokoyama, Jennifer S.; Branson, Nick; Dyer, Donna J.; Hitte, Christophe; Overall, Karen L.

2009-01-01

Until recently, canine genetic research has not focused on population structure within breeds, which may confound the results of case–control studies by introducing spurious correlations between phenotype and genotype that reflect population history. Intrabreed structure may exist when geographical origin or divergent selection regimes influence the choices of potential mates for breeding dogs. We present evidence for intrabreed stratification from a genome-wide marker survey in a sample of unrelated dogs. We genotyped 76 Border Collies, 49 Australian Shepherds, 17 German Shepherd Dogs, and 17 Portuguese Water Dogs for our primary analyses using Affymetrix Canine v2.0 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays. Subsets of autosomal markers were examined using clustering algorithms to facilitate assignment of individuals to populations and estimation of the number of populations represented in the sample. SNPs passing stringent quality control filters were employed for explicitly phylogenetic analyses reconstructing relationships between individuals using maximum parsimony and Bayesian methods. We used simulation studies to explore the possible effects of intrabreed stratification on genome-wide association studies. These analyses demonstrate significant stratification in at least one of our primary breeds of interest, the Border Collie. Demographic and pedigree data suggest that this population substructure may result from geographic isolation or divergent selection regimes practiced by breeders with different breeding program goals. Simulation studies indicate that such stratification could result in false discovery rates significant enough to confound genome-wide association analyses. Intrabreed stratification should be accounted for when designing and interpreting the results of case–control association studies using purebred dogs.

High Cryptic Diversity across the Global Range of the Migratory Planktonic Copepods Pleuromamma piseki and P. gracilis

PubMed Central

Halbert, Kristin M. K.; Goetze, Erica; Carlon, David B.

2013-01-01

Although holoplankton are ocean drifters and exhibit high dispersal potential, a number of studies on single species are finding highly divergent genetic clades. These cryptic species complexes are important to discover and describe, as identification of common marine species is fundamental to understanding ecosystem dynamics. Here we investigate the global diversity within Pleuromamma piseki and P. gracilis, two dominant members of the migratory zooplankton assemblage in subtropical and tropical waters worldwide. Using DNA sequence data from the mitochondrial gene cytochrome c oxidase subunit II (mtCOII) from 522 specimens collected across the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans, we discover twelve well-resolved genetically distinct clades in this species complex (Bayesian posterior probabilities >0.7; 6.3–17% genetic divergence between clades). The morphologically described species P. piseki and P. gracilis did not form monophyletic groups, rather they were distributed throughout the phylogeny and sometimes co-occurred within well-resolved clades: this result suggests that morphological characters currently used for taxonomic identification of P. gracilis and P. piseki may be inaccurate as indicators of species’ boundaries. Cryptic clades within the species complex ranged from being common to rare, and from cosmopolitan to highly restricted in distribution across the global ocean. These novel lineages appear to be ecologically divergent, with distinct biogeographic distributions across varied pelagic habitats. We hypothesize that these mtDNA lineages are distinct species and suggest that resolving their systematic status is important, given the ecological significance of the genus Pleuromamma in subtropical-tropical waters worldwide. PMID:24167556

Link Between the Adult and the Metacercaria of Clinostomum heluans Braun, 1899 (Trematoda: Clinostomidae) Through DNA Sequences, and its Phylogenetic Position Within the Genus Clinostomum Leidy, 1856.

PubMed

Briosio-Aguilar, R; Pinto, H A; Rodríguez-Santiago, M A; López-García, K; García-Varela, M; de León, G Pérez-Ponce

2018-06-01

The phylogenetic position of Clinostomum heluans Braun, 1899 within the genus Clinostomum Leidy, 1856 is reported in this study based on sequences of the barcoding region of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 gene ( COX1). Additionally, molecular data are used to link the adult and the metacercariae of the species. The metacercariae of C. heluans were found encysted infecting the cichlid fish Australoheros sp. in Minas Gerais, Brazil, whereas the adults were obtained from the mouth cavity of the Great White Egret, Ardea alba, in Campeche, Mexico. The COX1 sequences obtained for the Mexican clinostomes and the Brazilian metacercaria were almost identical (0.2% molecular divergence), indicating conspecificity. Similar molecular divergence (0.2-0.4%) was found between sequences of C. heluans reported here and Clinostomum sp. 6 previously obtained from a metacercaria recovered from the cichlid Cichlasoma boliviense in Santa Cruz, Bolivia. Both maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference analyses unequivocally showed the conspecificity between C. heluans and Clinostomum sp. 6, which form a monophyletic clade with high nodal support and very low genetic divergence. Moreover, tree topology reveals that C. heluans occupies a basal position with respect to New World species of Clinostomum, although a denser taxon sampling of species within the genus is further required. The metacercaria of C. heluans seems to be specific to cichlid fish because both samples from South America were recovered from species of this fish family, although not closely related.

Molecular determinants for the thermodynamic and functional divergence of uniporter GLUT1 and proton symporter XylE

PubMed Central

Ke, Meng; Jiang, Xin; Yan, Nieng

2017-01-01

GLUT1 facilitates the down-gradient translocation of D-glucose across cell membrane in mammals. XylE, an Escherichia coli homolog of GLUT1, utilizes proton gradient as an energy source to drive uphill D-xylose transport. Previous studies of XylE and GLUT1 suggest that the variation between an acidic residue (Asp27 in XylE) and a neutral one (Asn29 in GLUT1) is a key element for their mechanistic divergence. In this work, we combined computational and biochemical approaches to investigate the mechanism of proton coupling by XylE and the functional divergence between GLUT1 and XylE. Using molecular dynamics simulations, we evaluated the free energy profiles of the transition between inward- and outward-facing conformations for the apo proteins. Our results revealed the correlation between the protonation state and conformational preference in XylE, which is supported by the crystal structures. In addition, our simulations suggested a thermodynamic difference between XylE and GLUT1 that cannot be explained by the single residue variation at the protonation site. To understand the molecular basis, we applied Bayesian network models to analyze the alteration in the architecture of the hydrogen bond networks during conformational transition. The models and subsequent experimental validation suggest that multiple residue substitutions are required to produce the thermodynamic and functional distinction between XylE and GLUT1. Despite the lack of simulation studies with substrates, these computational and biochemical characterizations provide unprecedented insight into the mechanistic difference between proton symporters and uniporters. PMID:28617850

Time-varying Concurrent Risk of Extreme Droughts and Heatwaves in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Ausin, M. C.

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena such as droughts and heatwaves. The concurrent of these nature-changing climatic extremes may result in intensifying undesirable consequences in terms of human health and destructive effects in water resources. The present study assesses the risk of concurrent extreme droughts and heatwaves under dynamic nonstationary conditions arising from climate change in California. For doing so, a generalized fully Bayesian time-varying multivariate risk framework is proposed evolving through time under dynamic human-induced environment. In this methodology, an extreme, Bayesian, dynamic copula (Gumbel) is developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes. The time-varying extreme marginals are previously modeled using a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference is integrated to estimate parameters of the nonstationary marginals and copula using a Gibbs sampling method. Modelled marginals and copula are then used to develop a fully Bayesian, time-varying joint return period concept for the estimation of concurrent risk. Here we argue that climate change has increased the chance of concurrent droughts and heatwaves over decades in California. It is also demonstrated that a time-varying multivariate perspective should be incorporated to assess realistic concurrent risk of the extremes for water resources planning and management in a changing climate in this area. The proposed generalized methodology can be applied for other stochastic nature-changing compound climate extremes that are under the influence of climate change.

Bayesian inference of interaction properties of noisy dynamical systems with time-varying coupling: capabilities and limitations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilting, Jens; Lehnertz, Klaus

2015-08-01

We investigate a recently published analysis framework based on Bayesian inference for the time-resolved characterization of interaction properties of noisy, coupled dynamical systems. It promises wide applicability and a better time resolution than well-established methods. At the example of representative model systems, we show that the analysis framework has the same weaknesses as previous methods, particularly when investigating interacting, structurally different non-linear oscillators. We also inspect the tracking of time-varying interaction properties and propose a further modification of the algorithm, which improves the reliability of obtained results. We exemplarily investigate the suitability of this algorithm to infer strength and direction of interactions between various regions of the human brain during an epileptic seizure. Within the limitations of the applicability of this analysis tool, we show that the modified algorithm indeed allows a better time resolution through Bayesian inference when compared to previous methods based on least square fits.

Evolution of multicellularity coincided with increased diversification of cyanobacteria and the Great Oxidation Event.

PubMed

Schirrmeister, Bettina E; de Vos, Jurriaan M; Antonelli, Alexandre; Bagheri, Homayoun C

2013-01-29

Cyanobacteria are among the most diverse prokaryotic phyla, with morphotypes ranging from unicellular to multicellular filamentous forms, including those able to terminally (i.e., irreversibly) differentiate in form and function. It has been suggested that cyanobacteria raised oxygen levels in the atmosphere around 2.45-2.32 billion y ago during the Great Oxidation Event (GOE), hence dramatically changing life on the planet. However, little is known about the temporal evolution of cyanobacterial lineages, and possible interplay between the origin of multicellularity, diversification of cyanobacteria, and the rise of atmospheric oxygen. We estimated divergence times of extant cyanobacterial lineages under Bayesian relaxed clocks for a dataset of 16S rRNA sequences representing the entire known diversity of this phylum. We tested whether the evolution of multicellularity overlaps with the GOE, and whether multicellularity is associated with significant shifts in diversification rates in cyanobacteria. Our results indicate an origin of cyanobacteria before the rise of atmospheric oxygen. The evolution of multicellular forms coincides with the onset of the GOE and an increase in diversification rates. These results suggest that multicellularity could have played a key role in triggering cyanobacterial evolution around the GOE.

DLRS: gene tree evolution in light of a species tree.

PubMed

Sjöstrand, Joel; Sennblad, Bengt; Arvestad, Lars; Lagergren, Jens

2012-11-15

PrIME-DLRS (or colloquially: 'Delirious') is a phylogenetic software tool to simultaneously infer and reconcile a gene tree given a species tree. It accounts for duplication and loss events, a relaxed molecular clock and is intended for the study of homologous gene families, for example in a comparative genomics setting involving multiple species. PrIME-DLRS uses a Bayesian MCMC framework, where the input is a known species tree with divergence times and a multiple sequence alignment, and the output is a posterior distribution over gene trees and model parameters. PrIME-DLRS is available for Java SE 6+ under the New BSD License, and JAR files and source code can be downloaded from http://code.google.com/p/jprime/. There is also a slightly older C++ version available as a binary package for Ubuntu, with download instructions at http://prime.sbc.su.se. The C++ source code is available upon request. joel.sjostrand@scilifelab.se or jens.lagergren@scilifelab.se. PrIME-DLRS is based on a sound probabilistic model (Åkerborg et al., 2009) and has been thoroughly validated on synthetic and biological datasets (Supplementary Material online).

Evolution of multicellularity coincided with increased diversification of cyanobacteria and the Great Oxidation Event

PubMed Central

Schirrmeister, Bettina E.; de Vos, Jurriaan M.; Antonelli, Alexandre; Bagheri, Homayoun C.

2013-01-01

Cyanobacteria are among the most diverse prokaryotic phyla, with morphotypes ranging from unicellular to multicellular filamentous forms, including those able to terminally (i.e., irreversibly) differentiate in form and function. It has been suggested that cyanobacteria raised oxygen levels in the atmosphere around 2.45–2.32 billion y ago during the Great Oxidation Event (GOE), hence dramatically changing life on the planet. However, little is known about the temporal evolution of cyanobacterial lineages, and possible interplay between the origin of multicellularity, diversification of cyanobacteria, and the rise of atmospheric oxygen. We estimated divergence times of extant cyanobacterial lineages under Bayesian relaxed clocks for a dataset of 16S rRNA sequences representing the entire known diversity of this phylum. We tested whether the evolution of multicellularity overlaps with the GOE, and whether multicellularity is associated with significant shifts in diversification rates in cyanobacteria. Our results indicate an origin of cyanobacteria before the rise of atmospheric oxygen. The evolution of multicellular forms coincides with the onset of the GOE and an increase in diversification rates. These results suggest that multicellularity could have played a key role in triggering cyanobacterial evolution around the GOE. PMID:23319632

Multi-Phase US Spread and Habitat Switching of a Post-Columbian Invasive, Sorghum halepense

PubMed Central

Barney, Jacob N.; Atwater, Daniel Z.; Pederson, Gary A.; Pederson, Jeffrey F.; Chandler, J. Mike; Cox, T. Stan; Cox, Sheila; Dotray, Peter; Kopec, David; Smith, Steven E.; Schroeder, Jill; Wright, Steven D.; Jiao, Yuannian; Kong, Wenqian; Goff, Valorie; Auckland, Susan; Rainville, Lisa K.; Pierce, Gary J.; Lemke, Cornelia; Compton, Rosana; Phillips, Christine; Kerr, Alexandra; Mettler, Matthew; Paterson, Andrew H.

2016-01-01

Johnsongrass (Sorghum halepense) is a striking example of a post-Columbian founder event. This natural experiment within ecological time-scales provides a unique opportunity for understanding patterns of continent-wide genetic diversity following range expansion. Microsatellite markers were used for population genetic analyses including leaf-optimized Neighbor-Joining tree, pairwise FST, mismatch analysis, principle coordinate analysis, Tajima’s D, Fu’s F and Bayesian clusterings of population structure. Evidence indicates two geographically distant introductions of divergent genotypes, which spread across much of the US in <200 years. Based on geophylogeny, gene flow patterns can be inferred to have involved five phases. Centers of genetic diversity have shifted from two introduction sites separated by ~2000 miles toward the middle of the range, consistent with admixture between genotypes from the respective introductions. Genotyping provides evidence for a ‘habitat switch’ from agricultural to non-agricultural systems and may contribute to both Johnsongrass ubiquity and aggressiveness. Despite lower and more structured diversity at the invasion front, Johnsongrass continues to advance northward into cooler and drier habitats. Association genetic approaches may permit identification of alleles contributing to the habitat switch or other traits important to weed/invasive management and/or crop improvement. PMID:27755565

The historical biogeography of Mammalia

PubMed Central

Springer, Mark S.; Meredith, Robert W.; Janecka, Jan E.; Murphy, William J.

2011-01-01

Palaeobiogeographic reconstructions are underpinned by phylogenies, divergence times and ancestral area reconstructions, which together yield ancestral area chronograms that provide a basis for proposing and testing hypotheses of dispersal and vicariance. Methods for area coding include multi-state coding with a single character, binary coding with multiple characters and string coding. Ancestral reconstruction methods are divided into parsimony versus Bayesian/likelihood approaches. We compared nine methods for reconstructing ancestral areas for placental mammals. Ambiguous reconstructions were a problem for all methods. Important differences resulted from coding areas based on the geographical ranges of extant species versus the geographical provenance of the oldest fossil for each lineage. Africa and South America were reconstructed as the ancestral areas for Afrotheria and Xenarthra, respectively. Most methods reconstructed Eurasia as the ancestral area for Boreoeutheria, Euarchontoglires and Laurasiatheria. The coincidence of molecular dates for the separation of Afrotheria and Xenarthra at approximately 100 Ma with the plate tectonic sundering of Africa and South America hints at the importance of vicariance in the early history of Placentalia. Dispersal has also been important including the origins of Madagascar's endemic mammal fauna. Further studies will benefit from increased taxon sampling and the application of new ancestral area reconstruction methods. PMID:21807730

Dengue Virus Type 4 Phylogenetics in Brazil 2011: Looking beyond the Veil

PubMed Central

de Souza, Renato Pereira; Rocco, Iray M.; Maeda, Adriana Y.; Spenassatto, Carine; Bisordi, Ivani; Suzuki, Akemi; Silveira, Vivian R.; Silva, Sarai J. S.; Azevedo, Roberta M.; Tolentino, Fernanda M.; Assis, Jaqueline C.; Bassi, Margarida G.; Dambrós, Bibiana P.; Tumioto, Gabriela L.; Gregianini, Tatiana S.; Souza, Luiza Terezinha M.; Timenetsky, Maria do Carmo S. T.; Santos, Cecília L. S.

2011-01-01

Dengue Fever and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever are diseases affecting approximately 100 million people/year and are a major concern in developing countries. In the present study, the phylogenetic relationship of six strains of the first autochthonous cases of DENV-4 infection occurred in Sao Paulo State, Parana State and Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil, 2011 were studied. Nucleotide sequences of the envelope gene were determined and compared with sequences representative of the genotypes I, II, III and Sylvatic for DEN4 retrieved from GenBank. We employed a Bayesian phylogenetic approach to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationships of Brazilian DENV-4 and we estimated evolutionary rates and dates of divergence for DENV-4 found in Brazil in 2011. All samples sequenced in this study were located in Genotype II. The studied strains are monophyletic and our data suggest that they have been evolving separately for at least 4 to 6 years. Our data suggest that the virus might have been present in the region for some time, without being noticed by Health Surveillance Services due to a low level of circulation and a higher prevalence of DENV-1 and DENV- 2. PMID:22216365

Molecular Phylogeny and Historical Biogeography of the Neotropical Swarm-Founding Social Wasp Genus Synoeca (Hymenoptera: Vespidae)

PubMed Central

Menezes, Rodolpho Santos Telles; Brady, Seán Gary; Carvalho, Antônio Freire; Del Lama, Marco Antonio; Costa, Marco Antônio

2015-01-01

The Neotropical Region harbors high biodiversity and many studies on mammals, reptiles, amphibians and avifauna have investigated the causes for this pattern. However, there is a paucity of such studies that focus on Neotropical insect groups. Synoeca de Saussure, 1852 is a Neotropical swarm-founding social wasp genus with five described species that is broadly and conspicuously distributed throughout the Neotropics. Here, we infer the phylogenetic relationships, diversification times, and historical biogeography of Synoeca species. We also investigate samples of the disjoint populations of S. septentrionalis that occur in both northwestern parts of South America through Central American and the Brazilian Atlantic rainforests. Our results showed that the interspecific relationships for Synoeca could be described as follows: (S. chalibea + S. virginea) + (S. cyanea + (S. septentrionalis/S. surinama)). Notably, samples of S. septentrionalis and S. surinama collected in the Atlantic Forest were interrelated and may be the result of incomplete lineage sorting and/or mitochondrial introgression among them. Our Bayesian divergence dating analysis revealed recent Plio-Pleistocene diversification in Synoeca. Moreover, our biogeographical analysis suggested an Amazonian origin of Synoeca, with three main dispersal events subsequently occurring during the Plio-Pleistocene. PMID:25738705

Design optimization using adjoint of Long-time LES for the trailing edge of a transonic turbine vane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Talnikar, Chaitanya; Wang, Qiqi

2017-11-01

Adjoint-based design optimization methods have been applied to low-fidelity simulation methods like Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) and are useful for designing fluid machinery components. But to reliably capture the complex flow phenomena involved in turbomachinery, high fidelity simulations like large eddy simulation (LES) are required. Unfortunately due to the chaotic dynamics of turbulence, the unsteady adjoint method for LES diverges and produces incorrect gradients. Using a viscosity stabilized unsteady adjoint method developed for LES, the gradient can be obtained with reasonable accuracy. In this paper, design of the trailing edge of a gas turbine inlet guide vane is performed with the objective to reduce stagnation pressure loss and heat transfer over the surface of the vane. Slight changes in the shape of trailing edge can significantly impact these quantities by altering the boundary layer development process and separation points. The trailing edge is parameterized using a linear combination of 5 convex designs. Bayesian optimization is used as a global optimizer with the objective function evaluated from the LES and gradients obtained using the viscosity adjoint method. Results from the optimization, performed on the supercomputer Mira, are presented.

Footprints in the sand: independent reduction of subdigital lamellae in the Namib–Kalahari burrowing geckos

PubMed Central

Lamb, Trip; Bauer, Aaron M

2005-01-01

Many desert organisms exhibit convergence, and certain physical factors such as windblown sands have generated remarkably similar ecomorphs across divergent lineages. The burrowing geckos Colopus, Chondrodactylus and Palmatogecko occupy dune ecosystems in the Namib and Kalahari deserts of southwest Africa. Considered closely related, they share several putative synapomorphies, including reduced subdigital pads (toe pads) and spinose digital scales. Though recognized as part of Africa's ecologically diverse Pachydactylus Group, the burrowing geckos' precise phylogenetic affinities remain elusive. Convergent pedal modification provides a tenable alternative explaining the geckos' derived terrestriality and adaptation to Namib and Kalahari sands. We generated a molecular phylogeny for the Pachydactylus Group to examine evolutionary relationships among the burrowing geckos and infer historical patterns of pedal character change. Bayesian and parsimony analyses revealed all three burrowing genera to be deeply nested within Pachydactylus, each genus belonging to a separate clade. Strong support for these distinct clades indicates ecomorphological adaptations for burrowing have evolved independently three times in the southern Pachydactylus Group. We argue that the physical properties of Namib and Kalahari sands played a principal role in selecting for pedal similarity. PMID:16618680

Phylogenetic study of Class Armophorea (Alveolata, Ciliophora) based on 18S-rDNA data.

PubMed

da Silva Paiva, Thiago; do Nascimento Borges, Bárbara; da Silva-Neto, Inácio Domingos

2013-12-01

The 18S rDNA phylogeny of Class Armophorea, a group of anaerobic ciliates, is proposed based on an analysis of 44 sequences (out of 195) retrieved from the NCBI/GenBank database. Emphasis was placed on the use of two nucleotide alignment criteria that involved variation in the gap-opening and gap-extension parameters and the use of rRNA secondary structure to orientate multiple-alignment. A sensitivity analysis of 76 data sets was run to assess the effect of variations in indel parameters on tree topologies. Bayesian inference, maximum likelihood and maximum parsimony phylogenetic analyses were used to explore how different analytic frameworks influenced the resulting hypotheses. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the relationships among higher taxa of the Intramacronucleata were dependent upon how indels were determined during multiple-alignment of nucleotides. The phylogenetic analyses rejected the monophyly of the Armophorea most of the time and consistently indicated that the Metopidae and Nyctotheridae were related to the Litostomatea. There was no consensus on the placement of the Caenomorphidae, which could be a sister group of the Metopidae + Nyctorheridae, or could have diverged at the base of the Spirotrichea branch or the Intramacronucleata tree.

Phylogenetic study of Class Armophorea (Alveolata, Ciliophora) based on 18S-rDNA data

PubMed Central

da Silva Paiva, Thiago; do Nascimento Borges, Bárbara; da Silva-Neto, Inácio Domingos

2013-01-01

The 18S rDNA phylogeny of Class Armophorea, a group of anaerobic ciliates, is proposed based on an analysis of 44 sequences (out of 195) retrieved from the NCBI/GenBank database. Emphasis was placed on the use of two nucleotide alignment criteria that involved variation in the gap-opening and gap-extension parameters and the use of rRNA secondary structure to orientate multiple-alignment. A sensitivity analysis of 76 data sets was run to assess the effect of variations in indel parameters on tree topologies. Bayesian inference, maximum likelihood and maximum parsimony phylogenetic analyses were used to explore how different analytic frameworks influenced the resulting hypotheses. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the relationships among higher taxa of the Intramacronucleata were dependent upon how indels were determined during multiple-alignment of nucleotides. The phylogenetic analyses rejected the monophyly of the Armophorea most of the time and consistently indicated that the Metopidae and Nyctotheridae were related to the Litostomatea. There was no consensus on the placement of the Caenomorphidae, which could be a sister group of the Metopidae + Nyctorheridae, or could have diverged at the base of the Spirotrichea branch or the Intramacronucleata tree. PMID:24385862

Evolution and dispersal of St. Louis encephalitis virus in the Americas.

PubMed

Auguste, Albert J; Pybus, Oliver G; Carrington, Christine V F

2009-07-01

Using a Bayesian coalescent approach on a dataset of 73 envelope gene sequences we estimated substitution rates and dates of divergence for St. Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV) in the Americas. We found significant rate heterogeneity among lineages, such that "relaxed" molecular clock models were much better supported than a strict molecular clock. The mean substitution rate estimated for all SLEV was 4.1x10(-4)substitutions/site/year (95% HPD 2.5-5.7)-higher than previous estimates that relied on the less well-suited strict clock. Mean substitution rates for individual lineages varied from 3.7x10(-4) to 7.2x10(-4)substitutions/site/year. For the first time we also assessed the magnitude and direction of viral gene flow within the Americas. The overall direction of gene flow during the period represented by the phylogeny is from South to North, and the region between 15 degrees N and 30 degrees N latitude appears to be the major source of virus for the rest of North America, which is consistent with migratory birds returning to their northern breeding grounds having acquired infection while wintering in the region of the Gulf of Mexico.

Molecular phylogenetics reveals convergent evolution in lower Congo River spiny eels.

PubMed

Alter, S Elizabeth; Brown, Bianca; Stiassny, Melanie L J

2015-10-15

The lower Congo River (LCR) is a region of exceptional species diversity and endemism in the Congo basin, including numerous species of spiny eels (genus Mastacembelus). Four of these exhibit distinctive phenotypes characterized by greatly reduced optic globes deeply embedded into the head (cryptophthalmia) and reduced (or absent) melanin pigmentation, among other characteristics. A strikingly similar cryptophthalmic phenotype is also found in members of a number of unrelated fish families, strongly suggesting the possibility of convergent evolution. However, little is known about the evolutionary processes that shaped diversification in LCR Mastacembelus, their biogeographic origins, or when colonization of the LCR occurred. We sequenced mitochondrial and nuclear genes from Mastacembelus species collected in the lower Congo River, and compared them with other African species and Asian representatives as outgroups. We analyzed the sequence data using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic inference. Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic analyses, and Bayesian coalescent methods for species tree reconstruction, reveal that endemic LCR spiny eels derive from two independent origins, clearly demonstrating convergent evolution of the cryptophthalmic phenotype. Mastacembelus crassus, M. aviceps, and M. simbi form a clade, allied to species found in southern, eastern and central Africa. Unexpectedly, M. brichardi and brachyrhinus fall within a clade otherwise endemic to Lake Tanganikya (LT) ca. 1500 km east of the LCR. Divergence dating suggests the ages of these two clades of LCR endemics differ markedly. The age of the crassus group is estimated at ~4 Myr while colonization of the LCR by the brichardi-brachyrhinus progenitor was considerably more recent, dated at ~0.5 Myr. The phylogenetic framework of spiny eels presented here, the first to include LCR species, demonstrates that cryptophthalmia and associated traits evolved at least twice in Mastacembelus: once in M. brichardi and at least once in the M. crassus clade. Timing of diversification is broadly consistent with the onset of modern high-energy flow conditions in the LCR and with previous studies of endemic cichlids. The close genetic relationship between M. brichardi and M. brachyrhinus is particularly notable given the extreme difference in phenotype between these species, and additional work is needed to better understand the evolutionary history of diversification in this clade. The findings presented here demonstrate strong, multi-trait convergence in LCR spiny eels, suggesting that extreme selective pressures have shaped numerous phenotypic attributes of the endemic species of this region.

A New Phylogeographic Pattern of Endemic Bufo bankorensis in Taiwan Island Is Attributed to the Genetic Variation of Populations

PubMed Central

Yu, Teng-Lang; Lin, Hung-Du; Weng, Ching-Feng

2014-01-01

Aim To comprehend the phylogeographic patterns of genetic variation in anurans at Taiwan Island, this study attempted to examine (1) the existence of various geological barriers (Central Mountain Ranges, CMRs); and (2) the genetic variation of Bufo bankorensis using mtDNA sequences among populations located in different regions of Taiwan, characterized by different climates and existing under extreme conditions when compared available sequences of related species B. gargarizans of mainland China. Methodology/Principal Findings Phylogenetic analyses of the dataset with mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) D-loop gene (348 bp) recovered a close relationship between B. bankorensis and B. gargarizans, identified three distinct lineages. Furthermore, the network of mtDNA D-loop gene (564 bp) amplified (279 individuals, 27 localities) from Taiwan Island indicated three divergent clades within B. bankorensis (Clade W, E and S), corresponding to the geography, thereby verifying the importance of the CMRs and Kaoping River drainage as major biogeographic barriers. Mismatch distribution analysis, neutrality tests and Bayesian skyline plots revealed that a significant population expansion occurred for the total population and Clade W, with horizons dated to approximately 0.08 and 0.07 Mya, respectively. These results suggest that the population expansion of Taiwan Island species B. bankorensis might have resulted from the release of available habitat in post-glacial periods, the genetic variation on mtDNA showing habitat selection, subsequent population dispersal, and co-distribution among clades. Conclusions The multiple origins (different clades) of B. bankorensis mtDNA sequences were first evident in this study. The divergent genetic clades found within B. bankorensis could be independent colonization by previously diverged lineages; inferring B. bankorensis originated from B. gargarizans of mainland China, then dispersal followed by isolation within Taiwan Island. Highly divergent clades between W and E of B. bankorensis, implies that the CMRs serve as a genetic barrier and separated the whole island into the western and eastern phylogroups. PMID:24853679

Phylogeography of the prehensile-tailed skink Corucia zebrata on the Solomon Archipelago.

PubMed

Hagen, Ingerid J; Donnellan, Stephen C; Bull, C Michael

2012-06-01

The biogeography of islands is often strongly influenced by prior geological events. Corucia zebrata (Squamata: Scincidae) is endemic to the geologically complex Solomon Archipelago in Northern Melanesia. We examined the level of divergence for different island populations of C. zebrata and discussed these patterns in light of Pleistocene land bridges, island isolation, and island age. Corucia zebrata was sampled from 14 locations across the Solomon Archipelago and sequenced at two mitochondrial genes (ND2 and ND4; 1697 bp in total) and four nuclear loci (rhodopsin, an unknown intron, AKAP9, and PTPN12). Measures of genetic divergence, analyses of genetic variation, and Bayesian phylogenetic inference were used and the data assessed in light of geological information. Populations of C. zebrata on separate islands were found to be genetically different from each other, with reciprocal monophyly on mitochondrial DNA. Populations on islands previously connected by Pleistocene land bridges were marginally less divergent from each other than from populations on other nearby but isolated islands. There are indications that C. zebrata has radiated across the eastern islands of the archipelago within the last 1-4 million years. Nuclear loci were not sufficiently informative to yield further information about the phylogeography of C. zebrata on the Solomon Archipelago. Analyses of the mitochondrial data suggest that dispersal between islands has been very limited and that there are barriers to gene flow within the major islands. Islands that have been isolated during the Pleistocene glacial cycles are somewhat divergent in their mitochondrial genotypes, however, isolation by distance (IBD) and recent colonization of isolated but geologically younger islands appear to have had stronger effects on the phylogeography of C. zebrata than the Pleistocene glacial cycles. This contrasts with patterns reported for avian taxa, and highlights the fact that biogeographic regions for island species cannot be directly extrapolated among taxa of differing dispersal ability.

Ensemble Bayesian forecasting system Part I: Theory and algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herr, Henry D.; Krzysztofowicz, Roman

2015-05-01

The ensemble Bayesian forecasting system (EBFS), whose theory was published in 2001, is developed for the purpose of quantifying the total uncertainty about a discrete-time, continuous-state, non-stationary stochastic process such as a time series of stages, discharges, or volumes at a river gauge. The EBFS is built of three components: an input ensemble forecaster (IEF), which simulates the uncertainty associated with random inputs; a deterministic hydrologic model (of any complexity), which simulates physical processes within a river basin; and a hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP), which simulates the hydrologic uncertainty (an aggregate of all uncertainties except input). It works as a Monte Carlo simulator: an ensemble of time series of inputs (e.g., precipitation amounts) generated by the IEF is transformed deterministically through a hydrologic model into an ensemble of time series of outputs, which is next transformed stochastically by the HUP into an ensemble of time series of predictands (e.g., river stages). Previous research indicated that in order to attain an acceptable sampling error, the ensemble size must be on the order of hundreds (for probabilistic river stage forecasts and probabilistic flood forecasts) or even thousands (for probabilistic stage transition forecasts). The computing time needed to run the hydrologic model this many times renders the straightforward simulations operationally infeasible. This motivates the development of the ensemble Bayesian forecasting system with randomization (EBFSR), which takes full advantage of the analytic meta-Gaussian HUP and generates multiple ensemble members after each run of the hydrologic model; this auxiliary randomization reduces the required size of the meteorological input ensemble and makes it operationally feasible to generate a Bayesian ensemble forecast of large size. Such a forecast quantifies the total uncertainty, is well calibrated against the prior (climatic) distribution of predictand, possesses a Bayesian coherence property, constitutes a random sample of the predictand, and has an acceptable sampling error-which makes it suitable for rational decision making under uncertainty.

An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reddy, Vikas; Charisse Farr, Anna; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.

2014-03-01

Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.

Bayesian data analysis in observational comparative effectiveness research: rationale and examples.

PubMed

Olson, William H; Crivera, Concetta; Ma, Yi-Wen; Panish, Jessica; Mao, Lian; Lynch, Scott M

2013-11-01

Many comparative effectiveness research and patient-centered outcomes research studies will need to be observational for one or both of two reasons: first, randomized trials are expensive and time-consuming; and second, only observational studies can answer some research questions. It is generally recognized that there is a need to increase the scientific validity and efficiency of observational studies. Bayesian methods for the design and analysis of observational studies are scientifically valid and offer many advantages over frequentist methods, including, importantly, the ability to conduct comparative effectiveness research/patient-centered outcomes research more efficiently. Bayesian data analysis is being introduced into outcomes studies that we are conducting. Our purpose here is to describe our view of some of the advantages of Bayesian methods for observational studies and to illustrate both realized and potential advantages by describing studies we are conducting in which various Bayesian methods have been or could be implemented.

The Bayesian boom: good thing or bad?

PubMed Central

Hahn, Ulrike

2014-01-01

A series of high-profile critiques of Bayesian models of cognition have recently sparked controversy. These critiques question the contribution of rational, normative considerations in the study of cognition. The present article takes central claims from these critiques and evaluates them in light of specific models. Closer consideration of actual examples of Bayesian treatments of different cognitive phenomena allows one to defuse these critiques showing that they cannot be sustained across the diversity of applications of the Bayesian framework for cognitive modeling. More generally, there is nothing in the Bayesian framework that would inherently give rise to the deficits that these critiques perceive, suggesting they have been framed at the wrong level of generality. At the same time, the examples are used to demonstrate the different ways in which consideration of rationality uniquely benefits both theory and practice in the study of cognition. PMID:25152738

When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Powell, James A.

2017-01-01

Ecological diffusion is a theory that can be used to understand and forecast spatio-temporal processes such as dispersal, invasion, and the spread of disease. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling provides a framework to make statistical inference and probabilistic forecasts, using mechanistic ecological models. To illustrate, we show how hierarchical Bayesian models of ecological diffusion can be implemented for large data sets that are distributed densely across space and time. The hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to understand and forecast the growth and geographic spread in the prevalence of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We compare statistical inference and forecasts from our hierarchical Bayesian model to phenomenological regression-based methods that are commonly used to analyse spatial occurrence data. The mechanistic statistical model based on ecological diffusion led to important ecological insights, obviated a commonly ignored type of collinearity, and was the most accurate method for forecasting.

Phylogenetic estimates of diversification rate are affected by molecular rate variation.

PubMed

Duchêne, D A; Hua, X; Bromham, L

2017-10-01

Molecular phylogenies are increasingly being used to investigate the patterns and mechanisms of macroevolution. In particular, node heights in a phylogeny can be used to detect changes in rates of diversification over time. Such analyses rest on the assumption that node heights in a phylogeny represent the timing of diversification events, which in turn rests on the assumption that evolutionary time can be accurately predicted from DNA sequence divergence. But there are many influences on the rate of molecular evolution, which might also influence node heights in molecular phylogenies, and thus affect estimates of diversification rate. In particular, a growing number of studies have revealed an association between the net diversification rate estimated from phylogenies and the rate of molecular evolution. Such an association might, by influencing the relative position of node heights, systematically bias estimates of diversification time. We simulated the evolution of DNA sequences under several scenarios where rates of diversification and molecular evolution vary through time, including models where diversification and molecular evolutionary rates are linked. We show that commonly used methods, including metric-based, likelihood and Bayesian approaches, can have a low power to identify changes in diversification rate when molecular substitution rates vary. Furthermore, the association between the rates of speciation and molecular evolution rate can cause the signature of a slowdown or speedup in speciation rates to be lost or misidentified. These results suggest that the multiple sources of variation in molecular evolutionary rates need to be considered when inferring macroevolutionary processes from phylogenies. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

2017-08-01

Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been developed and widely applied, but there is still room for improvements. Future research in the context of Bayesian flood forecasting should be on assimilation of various sources of newly available information and improvement of predictive performance assessment methods.

Strikingly variable divergence times inferred across an Amazonian butterfly ‘suture zone’

PubMed Central

Whinnett, Alaine; Zimmermann, Marie; Willmott, Keith R; Herrera, Nimiadina; Mallarino, Ricardo; Simpson, Fraser; Joron, Mathieu; Lamas, Gerardo; Mallet, James

2005-01-01

‘Suture zones’ are areas where hybrid and contact zones of multiple taxa are clustered. Such zones have been regarded as strong evidence for allopatric divergence by proponents of the Pleistocene forest refugia theory, a vicariance hypothesis frequently used to explain diversification in the Amazon basin. A central prediction of the refugia and other vicariance theories is that the taxa should have a common history so that divergence times should be coincident among taxa. A suture zone for Ithomiinae butterflies near Tarapoto, NE Peru, was therefore studied to examine divergence times of taxa in contact across the zone. We sequenced 1619 bp of the mitochondrial COI/COII region in 172 individuals of 31 species from across the suture zone. Inferred divergence times differed remarkably, with divergence between some pairs of widespread species (each of which may have two or more subspecies interacting in the zone, as in the genus Melinaea) being considerably less than that between hybridizing subspecies in other genera (for instance in Oleria). Our data therefore strongly refute a simple hypothesis of simultaneous vicariance and suggest that ongoing parapatric or other modes of differentiation in continuous forest may be important in driving diversification in Amazonia. PMID:16271979

Bayesian methods for outliers detection in GNSS time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qianqian, Zhang; Qingming, Gui

2013-07-01

This article is concerned with the problem of detecting outliers in GNSS time series based on Bayesian statistical theory. Firstly, a new model is proposed to simultaneously detect different types of outliers based on the conception of introducing different types of classification variables corresponding to the different types of outliers; the problem of outlier detection is converted into the computation of the corresponding posterior probabilities, and the algorithm for computing the posterior probabilities based on standard Gibbs sampler is designed. Secondly, we analyze the reasons of masking and swamping about detecting patches of additive outliers intensively; an unmasking Bayesian method for detecting additive outlier patches is proposed based on an adaptive Gibbs sampler. Thirdly, the correctness of the theories and methods proposed above is illustrated by simulated data and then by analyzing real GNSS observations, such as cycle slips detection in carrier phase data. Examples illustrate that the Bayesian methods for outliers detection in GNSS time series proposed by this paper are not only capable of detecting isolated outliers but also capable of detecting additive outlier patches. Furthermore, it can be successfully used to process cycle slips in phase data, which solves the problem of small cycle slips.

Enhancements of Bayesian Blocks; Application to Large Light Curve Databases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scargle, Jeff

2015-01-01

Bayesian Blocks are optimal piecewise linear representations (step function fits) of light-curves. The simple algorithm implementing this idea, using dynamic programming, has been extended to include more data modes and fitness metrics, multivariate analysis, and data on the circle (Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. VI. Bayesian Block Representations, Scargle, Norris, Jackson and Chiang 2013, ApJ, 764, 167), as well as new results on background subtraction and refinement of the procedure for precise timing of transient events in sparse data. Example demonstrations will include exploratory analysis of the Kepler light curve archive in a search for "star-tickling" signals from extraterrestrial civilizations. (The Cepheid Galactic Internet, Learned, Kudritzki, Pakvasa1, and Zee, 2008, arXiv: 0809.0339; Walkowicz et al., in progress).

How to interpret the results of medical time series data analysis: Classical statistical approaches versus dynamic Bayesian network modeling.

PubMed

Onisko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J; Austin, R Marshall

2016-01-01

Classical statistics is a well-established approach in the analysis of medical data. While the medical community seems to be familiar with the concept of a statistical analysis and its interpretation, the Bayesian approach, argued by many of its proponents to be superior to the classical frequentist approach, is still not well-recognized in the analysis of medical data. The goal of this study is to encourage data analysts to use the Bayesian approach, such as modeling with graphical probabilistic networks, as an insightful alternative to classical statistical analysis of medical data. This paper offers a comparison of two approaches to analysis of medical time series data: (1) classical statistical approach, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and (2) dynamic Bayesian network modeling. Our comparison is based on time series cervical cancer screening data collected at Magee-Womens Hospital, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center over 10 years. The main outcomes of our comparison are cervical cancer risk assessments produced by the three approaches. However, our analysis discusses also several aspects of the comparison, such as modeling assumptions, model building, dealing with incomplete data, individualized risk assessment, results interpretation, and model validation. Our study shows that the Bayesian approach is (1) much more flexible in terms of modeling effort, and (2) it offers an individualized risk assessment, which is more cumbersome for classical statistical approaches.

Phylogenetic relationships of rock-wallabies, Petrogale (Marsupialia: Macropodidae) and their biogeographic history within Australia.

PubMed

Potter, Sally; Cooper, Steven J B; Metcalfe, Cushla J; Taggart, David A; Eldridge, Mark D B

2012-02-01

The rock-wallaby genus Petrogale comprises a group of habitat-specialist macropodids endemic to Australia. Their restriction to rocky outcrops, with infrequent interpopulation dispersal, has been suggested as the cause of their recent and rapid diversification. Molecular phylogenetic relationships within and among species of Petrogale were analysed using mitochondrial (cytochrome oxidase c subunit 1, cytochrome b, NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2) and nuclear (omega-globin intron, breast and ovarian cancer susceptibility gene) sequence data with representatives that encompassed the morphological and chromosomal variation within the genus, including for the first time both Petrogale concinna and Petrogale purpureicollis. Four distinct lineages were identified, (1) the brachyotis group, (2) Petrogale persephone, (3) Petrogalexanthopus and (4) the lateralis-penicillata group. Three of these lineages include taxa with the ancestral karyotype (2n=22). Paraphyletic relationships within the brachyotis group indicate the need for a focused phylogeographic study. There was support for P. purpureicollis being reinstated as a full species and P. concinna being placed within Petrogale rather than in the monotypic genus Peradorcas. Bayesian analyses of divergence times suggest that episodes of diversification commenced in the late Miocene-Pliocene and continued throughout the Pleistocene. Ancestral state reconstructions suggest that Petrogale originated in a mesic environment and dispersed into more arid environments, events that correlate with the timing of radiations in other arid zone vertebrate taxa across Australia. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian sparse channel estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chulong; Zoltowski, Michael D.

2012-05-01

In Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) systems, the technique used to estimate and track the time-varying multipath channel is critical to ensure reliable, high data rate communications. It is recognized that wireless channels often exhibit a sparse structure, especially for wideband and ultra-wideband systems. In order to exploit this sparse structure to reduce the number of pilot tones and increase the channel estimation quality, the application of compressed sensing to channel estimation is proposed. In this article, to make the compressed channel estimation more feasible for practical applications, it is investigated from a perspective of Bayesian learning. Under the Bayesian learning framework, the large-scale compressed sensing problem, as well as large time delay for the estimation of the doubly selective channel over multiple consecutive OFDM symbols, can be avoided. Simulation studies show a significant improvement in channel estimation MSE and less computing time compared to the conventional compressed channel estimation techniques.

Sequencing of Chloroplast Genomes from Wheat, Barley, Rye and Their Relatives Provides a Detailed Insight into the Evolution of the Triticeae Tribe

PubMed Central

Middleton, Christopher P.; Senerchia, Natacha; Stein, Nils; Akhunov, Eduard D.; Keller, Beat

2014-01-01

Using Roche/454 technology, we sequenced the chloroplast genomes of 12 Triticeae species, including bread wheat, barley and rye, as well as the diploid progenitors and relatives of bread wheat Triticum urartu, Aegilops speltoides and Ae. tauschii. Two wild tetraploid taxa, Ae. cylindrica and Ae. geniculata, were also included. Additionally, we incorporated wild Einkorn wheat Triticum boeoticum and its domesticated form T. monococcum and two Hordeum spontaneum (wild barley) genotypes. Chloroplast genomes were used for overall sequence comparison, phylogenetic analysis and dating of divergence times. We estimate that barley diverged from rye and wheat approximately 8–9 million years ago (MYA). The genome donors of hexaploid wheat diverged between 2.1–2.9 MYA, while rye diverged from Triticum aestivum approximately 3–4 MYA, more recently than previously estimated. Interestingly, the A genome taxa T. boeoticum and T. urartu were estimated to have diverged approximately 570,000 years ago. As these two have a reproductive barrier, the divergence time estimate also provides an upper limit for the time required for the formation of a species boundary between the two. Furthermore, we conclusively show that the chloroplast genome of hexaploid wheat was contributed by the B genome donor and that this unknown species diverged from Ae. speltoides about 980,000 years ago. Additionally, sequence alignments identified a translocation of a chloroplast segment to the nuclear genome which is specific to the rye/wheat lineage. We propose the presented phylogeny and divergence time estimates as a reference framework for future studies on Triticeae. PMID:24614886

Tracking composite material damage evolution using Bayesian filtering and flash thermography data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregory, Elizabeth D.; Holland, Steve D.

2016-05-01

We propose a method for tracking the condition of a composite part using Bayesian filtering of ash thermography data over the lifetime of the part. In this demonstration, composite panels were fabricated; impacted to induce subsurface delaminations; and loaded in compression over multiple time steps, causing the delaminations to grow in size. Flash thermography data was collected between each damage event to serve as a time history of the part. The ash thermography indicated some areas of damage but provided little additional information as to the exact nature or depth of the damage. Computed tomography (CT) data was also collected after each damage event and provided a high resolution volume model of damage that acted as truth. After each cycle, the condition estimate, from the ash thermography data and the Bayesian filter, was compared to 'ground truth'. The Bayesian process builds on the lifetime history of ash thermography scans and can give better estimates of material condition as compared to the most recent scan alone, which is common practice in the aerospace industry. Bayesian inference provides probabilistic estimates of damage condition that are updated as each new set of data becomes available. The method was tested on simulated data and then on an experimental data set.

A Bayesian Approach for Analyzing Longitudinal Structural Equation Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Song, Xin-Yuan; Lu, Zhao-Hua; Hser, Yih-Ing; Lee, Sik-Yum

2011-01-01

This article considers a Bayesian approach for analyzing a longitudinal 2-level nonlinear structural equation model with covariates, and mixed continuous and ordered categorical variables. The first-level model is formulated for measures taken at each time point nested within individuals for investigating their characteristics that are dynamically…

Not an ancient relic: the endemic Livistona palms of arid central Australia could have been introduced by humans

PubMed Central

Kondo, Toshiaki; Crisp, Michael D.; Linde, Celeste; Bowman, David M. J. S.; Kawamura, Kensuke; Kaneko, Shingo; Isagi, Yuji

2012-01-01

Livistona mariae is an endemic palm localized in arid central Australia. This species is separated by about 1000 km from its congener L. rigida, which grows distantly in the Roper River and Nicholson–Gregory River catchments in northern Australia. Such an isolated distribution of L. mariae has been assumed to have resulted from contraction of ancestral populations as Australia aridified from the Mid-Miocene (ca 15 Ma). To test this hypothesis at the population level, we examined the genetic relationships among 14 populations of L. mariae and L. rigida using eight nuclear microsatellite loci. Our population tree and Bayesian clustering revealed that these populations comprised two genetically distinct groups that did not correspond to the current classification at species rank, and L. mariae showed closest affinity with L. rigida from Roper River. Furthermore, coalescent divergence-time estimations suggested that the disjunction between the northern populations (within L. rigida) could have originated by intermittent colonization along an ancient river that has been drowned repeatedly by marine transgression. During that time, L. mariae populations could have been established by opportunistic immigrants from Roper River about 15 000 years ago, concurrently with the settlement of indigenous Australians in central Australia, who are thus plausible vectors. Thus, our results rule out the ancient relic hypothesis for the origin of L. mariae. PMID:22398168

Phylogenetic framework for coevolutionary studies: a compass for exploring jungles of tangled trees.

PubMed

Martínez-Aquino, Andrés

2016-08-01

Phylogenetics is used to detect past evolutionary events, from how species originated to how their ecological interactions with other species arose, which can mirror cophylogenetic patterns. Cophylogenetic reconstructions uncover past ecological relationships between taxa through inferred coevolutionary events on trees, for example, codivergence, duplication, host-switching, and loss. These events can be detected by cophylogenetic analyses based on nodes and the length and branching pattern of the phylogenetic trees of symbiotic associations, for example, host-parasite. In the past 2 decades, algorithms have been developed for cophylogetenic analyses and implemented in different software, for example, statistical congruence index and event-based methods. Based on the combination of these approaches, it is possible to integrate temporal information into cophylogenetical inference, such as estimates of lineage divergence times between 2 taxa, for example, hosts and parasites. Additionally, the advances in phylogenetic biogeography applying methods based on parametric process models and combined Bayesian approaches, can be useful for interpreting coevolutionary histories in a scenario of biogeographical area connectivity through time. This article briefly reviews the basics of parasitology and provides an overview of software packages in cophylogenetic methods. Thus, the objective here is to present a phylogenetic framework for coevolutionary studies, with special emphasis on groups of parasitic organisms. Researchers wishing to undertake phylogeny-based coevolutionary studies can use this review as a "compass" when "walking" through jungles of tangled phylogenetic trees.

Looking for trees in the forest: summary tree from posterior samples

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Bayesian phylogenetic analysis generates a set of trees which are often condensed into a single tree representing the whole set. Many methods exist for selecting a representative topology for a set of unrooted trees, few exist for assigning branch lengths to a fixed topology, and even fewer for simultaneously setting the topology and branch lengths. However, there is very little research into locating a good representative for a set of rooted time trees like the ones obtained from a BEAST analysis. Results We empirically compare new and known methods for generating a summary tree. Some new methods are motivated by mathematical constructions such as tree metrics, while the rest employ tree concepts which work well in practice. These use more of the posterior than existing methods, which discard information not directly mapped to the chosen topology. Using results from a large number of simulations we assess the quality of a summary tree, measuring (a) how well it explains the sequence data under the model and (b) how close it is to the “truth”, i.e to the tree used to generate the sequences. Conclusions Our simulations indicate that no single method is “best”. Methods producing good divergence time estimates have poor branch lengths and lower model fit, and vice versa. Using the results presented here, a user can choose the appropriate method based on the purpose of the summary tree. PMID:24093883

Looking for trees in the forest: summary tree from posterior samples.

PubMed

Heled, Joseph; Bouckaert, Remco R

2013-10-04

Bayesian phylogenetic analysis generates a set of trees which are often condensed into a single tree representing the whole set. Many methods exist for selecting a representative topology for a set of unrooted trees, few exist for assigning branch lengths to a fixed topology, and even fewer for simultaneously setting the topology and branch lengths. However, there is very little research into locating a good representative for a set of rooted time trees like the ones obtained from a BEAST analysis. We empirically compare new and known methods for generating a summary tree. Some new methods are motivated by mathematical constructions such as tree metrics, while the rest employ tree concepts which work well in practice. These use more of the posterior than existing methods, which discard information not directly mapped to the chosen topology. Using results from a large number of simulations we assess the quality of a summary tree, measuring (a) how well it explains the sequence data under the model and (b) how close it is to the "truth", i.e to the tree used to generate the sequences. Our simulations indicate that no single method is "best". Methods producing good divergence time estimates have poor branch lengths and lower model fit, and vice versa. Using the results presented here, a user can choose the appropriate method based on the purpose of the summary tree.

Phylogenetic framework for coevolutionary studies: a compass for exploring jungles of tangled trees

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Abstract Phylogenetics is used to detect past evolutionary events, from how species originated to how their ecological interactions with other species arose, which can mirror cophylogenetic patterns. Cophylogenetic reconstructions uncover past ecological relationships between taxa through inferred coevolutionary events on trees, for example, codivergence, duplication, host-switching, and loss. These events can be detected by cophylogenetic analyses based on nodes and the length and branching pattern of the phylogenetic trees of symbiotic associations, for example, host–parasite. In the past 2 decades, algorithms have been developed for cophylogetenic analyses and implemented in different software, for example, statistical congruence index and event-based methods. Based on the combination of these approaches, it is possible to integrate temporal information into cophylogenetical inference, such as estimates of lineage divergence times between 2 taxa, for example, hosts and parasites. Additionally, the advances in phylogenetic biogeography applying methods based on parametric process models and combined Bayesian approaches, can be useful for interpreting coevolutionary histories in a scenario of biogeographical area connectivity through time. This article briefly reviews the basics of parasitology and provides an overview of software packages in cophylogenetic methods. Thus, the objective here is to present a phylogenetic framework for coevolutionary studies, with special emphasis on groups of parasitic organisms. Researchers wishing to undertake phylogeny-based coevolutionary studies can use this review as a “compass” when “walking” through jungles of tangled phylogenetic trees. PMID:29491928

Molecular phylogeny of Pompilinae (Hymenoptera: Pompilidae): Evidence for rapid diversification and host shifts in spider wasps.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Juanita; Pitts, James P; Florez, Jaime A; Bond, Jason E; von Dohlen, Carol D

2016-01-01

Pompilinae is one of the largest subfamilies of spider wasps (Pompilidae). Most pompilines are generalist spider predators at the family level, but some taxa exhibit ecological specificity (i.e., to spider-host guild). Here we present the first molecular phylogenetic analysis of Pompilinae, toward the aim of evaluating the monophyly of tribes and genera. We further test whether changes in the rate of diversification are associated with host-guild shifts. Molecular data were collected from five nuclear loci (28S, EF1-F2, LWRh, Wg, Pol2) for 76 taxa in 39 genera. Data were analyzed using maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian inference (BI). The phylogenetic results were compared with previous hypotheses of subfamilial and tribal classification, as well as generic relationships in the subfamily. The classification of Pompilus and Agenioideus is also discussed. A Bayesian relaxed molecular clock analysis was used to examine divergence times. Diversification rate-shift tests accounted for taxon-sampling bias using ML and BI approaches. Ancestral host family and host guild were reconstructed using MP and ML methods. Ancestral host guild for all Pompilinae, for the ancestor at the node where a diversification rate-shift was detected, and two more nodes back in time was inferred using BI. In the resulting phylogenies, Aporini was the only previously proposed monophyletic tribe. Several genera (e.g., Pompilus, Microphadnus and Schistonyx) are also not monophyletic. Dating analyses produced a well-supported chronogram consistent with topologies from BI and ML results. The BI ancestral host-use reconstruction inferred the use of spiders belonging to the guild "other hunters" (frequenting the ground and vegetation) as the ancestral state for Pompilinae. This guild had the highest probability for the ML reconstruction and was equivocal for the MP reconstruction; various switching events to other guilds occurred throughout the evolution of the group. The diversification of Pompilinae shows one main rate-shift coinciding with a shift to ground-hunter spiders, as reconstructed by the BI ancestral character-state analysis. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian account of quantum histories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marlow, Thomas

2006-05-15

We investigate whether quantum history theories can be consistent with Bayesian reasoning and whether such an analysis helps clarify the interpretation of such theories. First, we summarise and extend recent work categorising two different approaches to formalising multi-time measurements in quantum theory. The standard approach consists of describing an ordered series of measurements in terms of history propositions with non-additive 'probabilities.' The non-standard approach consists of defining multi-time measurements to consist of sets of exclusive and exhaustive history propositions and recovering the single-time exclusivity of results when discussing single-time history propositions. We analyse whether such history propositions can be consistentmore » with Bayes' rule. We show that certain class of histories are given a natural Bayesian interpretation, namely, the linearly positive histories originally introduced by Goldstein and Page. Thus, we argue that this gives a certain amount of interpretational clarity to the non-standard approach. We also attempt a justification of our analysis using Cox's axioms of probability theory.« less

A planktonic diatom displays genetic structure over small spatial scales.

PubMed

Sefbom, Josefin; Kremp, Anke; Rengefors, Karin; Jonsson, Per R; Sjöqvist, Conny; Godhe, Anna

2018-04-03

Marine planktonic microalgae have potentially global dispersal, yet reduced gene flow has been confirmed repeatedly for several species. Over larger distances (>200 km) geographic isolation and restricted oceanographic connectivity have been recognized as instrumental in driving population divergence. Here we investigated whether similar patterns, that is, structured populations governed by geographic isolation and/or oceanographic connectivity, can be observed at smaller (6-152 km) geographic scales. To test this we established 425 clonal cultures of the planktonic diatom Skeletonema marinoi collected from 11 locations in the Archipelago Sea (northern Baltic Sea). The region is characterized by a complex topography, entailing several mixing regions of which four were included in the sampling area. Using eight microsatellite markers and conventional F-statistics, significant genetic differentiation was observed between several sites. Moreover, Bayesian cluster analysis revealed the co-occurrence of two genetic groups spread throughout the area. However, geographic isolation and oceanographic connectivity could not explain the genetic patterns observed. Our data reveal hierarchical genetic structuring whereby despite high dispersal potential, significantly diverged populations have developed over small spatial scales. Our results suggest that biological characteristics and historical events may be more important in generating barriers to gene flow than physical barriers at small spatial scales. © 2018 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Nuclear and plastid markers reveal the persistence of genetic identity: a new perspective on the evolutionary history of Petunia exserta.

PubMed

Segatto, Ana Lúcia Anversa; Cazé, Ana Luíza Ramos; Turchetto, Caroline; Klahre, Ulrich; Kuhlemeier, Cris; Bonatto, Sandro Luis; Freitas, Loreta Brandão

2014-01-01

Recently divergent species that can hybridize are ideal models for investigating the genetic exchanges that can occur while preserving the species boundaries. Petunia exserta is an endemic species from a very limited and specific area that grows exclusively in rocky shelters. These shaded spots are an inhospitable habitat for all other Petunia species, including the closely related and widely distributed species P. axillaris. Individuals with intermediate morphologic characteristics have been found near the rocky shelters and were believed to be putative hybrids between P. exserta and P. axillaris, suggesting a situation where Petunia exserta is losing its genetic identity. In the current study, we analyzed the plastid intergenic spacers trnS/trnG and trnH/psbA and six nuclear CAPS markers in a large sampling design of both species to understand the evolutionary process occurring in this biological system. Bayesian clustering methods, cpDNA haplotype networks, genetic diversity statistics, and coalescence-based analyses support a scenario where hybridization occurs while two genetic clusters corresponding to two species are maintained. Our results reinforce the importance of coupling differentially inherited markers with an extensive geographic sample to assess the evolutionary dynamics of recently diverged species that can hybridize. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Phylogeography above the species level for perennial species in a composite genus

PubMed Central

Tremetsberger, Karin; Ortiz, María Ángeles; Terrab, Anass; Balao, Francisco; Casimiro-Soriguer, Ramón; Talavera, María; Talavera, Salvador

2016-01-01

In phylogeography, DNA sequence and fingerprint data at the population level are used to infer evolutionary histories of species. Phylogeography above the species level is concerned with the genealogical aspects of divergent lineages. Here, we present a phylogeographic study to examine the evolutionary history of a western Mediterranean composite, focusing on the perennial species of Helminthotheca (Asteraceae, Cichorieae). We used molecular markers (amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP), internal transcribed spacer and plastid DNA sequences) to infer relationships among populations throughout the distributional range of the group. Interpretation is aided by biogeographic and molecular clock analyses. Four coherent entities are revealed by Bayesian mixture clustering of AFLP data, which correspond to taxa previously recognized at the rank of subspecies. The origin of the group was in western North Africa, from where it expanded across the Strait of Gibraltar to the Iberian Peninsula and across the Strait of Sicily to Sicily. Pleistocene lineage divergence is inferred within western North Africa as well as within the western Iberian region. The existence of the four entities as discrete evolutionary lineages suggests that they should be elevated to the rank of species, yielding H. aculeata, H. comosa, H. maroccana and H. spinosa, whereby the latter two necessitate new combinations. PMID:26644340

Genotypic Characterization of Rickettsia bellii Reveals Distinct Lineages in the United States and South America.

PubMed

Krawczak, Felipe S; Labruna, Marcelo B; Hecht, Joy A; Paddock, Christopher D; Karpathy, Sandor E

2018-01-01

The bacterium Rickettsia bellii belongs to a basal group of rickettsiae that diverged prior to the pathogenic spotted fever group and typhus group Rickettsia species. Despite a diverse representation of R. bellii across more than 25 species of hard and soft ticks in the American continent, phylogeographical relationships among strains of this basal group- Rickettsia species are unknown; the work described here explores these relationships. DNA was extracted from 30 R. bellii tick isolates: 15 from the United States, 14 from Brazil, and 1 from Argentina. A total of 2,269 aligned nucleotide sites of 3 protein coding genes ( glt A, atp A, and cox A) and 2 intergenic regions ( rpm E -tRN A fmet and RC1027-xth A 2 ) were concatenated and subjected to phylogenetic analysis by Bayesian methods. Results showed a separation of almost all isolates between North and South Americas, suggesting that they have radiated within their respective continents. Phylogenetic positions of the 30 isolates could be a result of not only their geographical origin but also the tick hosts they have coevolved with. Whether R. bellii originated with ticks in North or South America remains obscure, as our analyses did not show evidence for greater genetic divergence of R. bellii in either continent.

A sub-space greedy search method for efficient Bayesian Network inference.

PubMed

Zhang, Qing; Cao, Yong; Li, Yong; Zhu, Yanming; Sun, Samuel S M; Guo, Dianjing

2011-09-01

Bayesian network (BN) has been successfully used to infer the regulatory relationships of genes from microarray dataset. However, one major limitation of BN approach is the computational cost because the calculation time grows more than exponentially with the dimension of the dataset. In this paper, we propose a sub-space greedy search method for efficient Bayesian Network inference. Particularly, this method limits the greedy search space by only selecting gene pairs with higher partial correlation coefficients. Using both synthetic and real data, we demonstrate that the proposed method achieved comparable results with standard greedy search method yet saved ∼50% of the computational time. We believe that sub-space search method can be widely used for efficient BN inference in systems biology. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phylogeographic and population genetic structure of bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) in North American deserts.

PubMed

Buchalski, Michael R; Sacks, Benjamin N; Gille, Daphne A; Penedo, Maria Cecilia T; Ernest, Holly B; Morrison, Scott A; Boyce, Walter M

2016-06-09

Fossil data are ambiguous regarding the evolutionary origin of contemporary desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis subspecies). To address this uncertainty, we conducted phylogeographic and population genetic analyses on bighorn sheep subspecies found in southwestern North America. We analyzed 515 base pairs of mtDNA control region sequence and 39 microsatellites in 804 individuals from 58 locations. Phylogenetic analyses revealed 2 highly divergent clades concordant with Sierra Nevada ( O. c. sierrae ) and Rocky Mountain ( O. c. canadensis ) bighorn and showed that these 2 subspecies both diverged from desert bighorn prior to or during the Illinoian glaciation (~315-94 thousand years ago [kya]). Desert bighorn comprised several more recently diverged haplogroups concordant with the putative Nelson ( O. c. nelsoni ), Mexican ( O. c. mexicana ), and Peninsular ( O. c. cremnobates ) subspecies. Corresponding estimates of effective splitting times (~17-3 kya), and haplogroup ages (~85-72 kya) placed the most likely timeframe for divergence among desert bighorn subspecies somewhere within the last glacial maximum. Median-joining haplotype network and Bayesian skyline analyses both indicated that desert bighorn collectively comprised a historically large and haplotype-diverse population, which subsequently lost much of its diversity through demographic decline. Using microsatellite data, discriminant analysis of principle components (DAPC) and Bayesian clustering analyses both indicated genetic structure concordant with the geographic distribution of 3 desert subspecies. Likewise, microsatellite and mitochondrial-based F ST comparisons revealed significant fixation indices among the desert bighorn genetic clusters. We conclude these desert subspecies represent ancient lineages likely descended from separate Pleistocene refugial populations and should therefore be managed as distinct taxa to preserve maximal biodiversity. Los datos de fósiles sobre el origen evolutivo de las ovejas del desierto ( Ovis canadensis subespecies) contemporáneas son ambiguos. Para dilucidar esta incertidumbre, llevamos a cabo análisis filogeográficos y de genética de poblaciones entre cinco subespecies de ovejas del suroccidente de Norteamérica. Analizamos 515 pb de secuencia de la región control del ADN mitocondrial y 39 microsatélites en 804 ovejas de 58 localidades. Los análisis filogenéticos revelaron 2 clados altamente divergentes concordantes con ovejas de la Sierra Nevada ( O. c. sierrae ) y de las Montañas Rocosas ( O. c. canadensis ), y demostraron que estas dos subespecies divergieron antes o durante la glaciación de Illinois (315,000-94,000 años). Las ovejas del desierto formaron varios haplogrupos recientemente derivados concordantes con las subespecies de Nelson ( O. c. nelsoni ), México ( O. c. mexicana ) y peninsular ( O. c. cremnobates ). Las estimaciones correspondientes al tiempo de separación efectiva (17,000-3,000 años) y edades de haplogrupos (85,000-72,000 años) son los plazos más probables para las divergencias entre subespecies de ovejas del desierto dentro de la última glaciación máxima. Análisis de redes de haplotipos de unión de medias y análisis bayesianos de líneas de horizonte indicaron que las ovejas del desierto formaron una población históricamente grande y diversa en términos de haplotipos, que luego perdieron gran parte de su diversidad a través de un descenso demográfico. Utilizando datos de microsatélites los análisis DAPC y TESS indicaron agrupamiento genético concordante con la distribución geográfica actual de las tres subespecies. Asimismo, comparaciones de F ST con datos de microsatélites y mitocondriales revelaron índices de fijación significativos entre los grupos genéticos de ovejas del desierto. Concluimos que estas subespecies de ovejas del desierto representan linajes antiguos que probablemente descienden de poblaciones de distintos refugios del Pleistoceno, y que por lo tanto deben ser manejadas como taxones distintos para preservar su biodiversidad máxima.

Contrasting patterns of genetic and phenotypic differentiation in two invasive salmonids in the southern hemisphere

PubMed Central

Monzón-Argüello, Catalina; Consuegra, Sofia; Gajardo, Gonzalo; Marco-Rius, Francisco; Fowler, Daniel M; DeFaveri, Jacquelin; Garcia de Leaniz, Carlos

2014-01-01

Invasion success may be expected to increase with residence time (i.e., time since first introduction) and secondary releases (i.e., those that follow the original introduction), but this has rarely been tested in natural fish populations. We compared genetic and phenotypic divergence in rainbow trout and brown trout in Chile and the Falkland Islands to test the prediction that adaptive divergence, measured as PST/FST, would increase with residence time and secondary releases. We also explored whether interspecific competition between invaders could drive phenotypic divergence. Residence time had no significant effect on genetic diversity, phenotypic divergence, effective population size, or signatures of expansion of invasive trout. In contrast, secondary releases had a major effect on trout invasions, and rainbow trout populations mostly affected by aquaculture escapees showed significant divergence from less affected populations. Coexistence with brown trout had a positive effect on phenotypic divergence of rainbow trout. Our results highlight an important role of secondary releases in shaping fish invasions, but do not support the contention that older invaders are more differentiated than younger ones. They also suggest that exotic trout may not have yet developed local adaptations in these recently invaded habitats, at least with respect to growth-related traits. PMID:25469171

Bayesian dynamic mediation analysis.

PubMed

Huang, Jing; Yuan, Ying

2017-12-01

Most existing methods for mediation analysis assume that mediation is a stationary, time-invariant process, which overlooks the inherently dynamic nature of many human psychological processes and behavioral activities. In this article, we consider mediation as a dynamic process that continuously changes over time. We propose Bayesian multilevel time-varying coefficient models to describe and estimate such dynamic mediation effects. By taking the nonparametric penalized spline approach, the proposed method is flexible and able to accommodate any shape of the relationship between time and mediation effects. Simulation studies show that the proposed method works well and faithfully reflects the true nature of the mediation process. By modeling mediation effect nonparametrically as a continuous function of time, our method provides a valuable tool to help researchers obtain a more complete understanding of the dynamic nature of the mediation process underlying psychological and behavioral phenomena. We also briefly discuss an alternative approach of using dynamic autoregressive mediation model to estimate the dynamic mediation effect. The computer code is provided to implement the proposed Bayesian dynamic mediation analysis. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Bayesian randomized clinical trials: From fixed to adaptive design.

PubMed

Yin, Guosheng; Lam, Chi Kin; Shi, Haolun

2017-08-01

Randomized controlled studies are the gold standard for phase III clinical trials. Using α-spending functions to control the overall type I error rate, group sequential methods are well established and have been dominating phase III studies. Bayesian randomized design, on the other hand, can be viewed as a complement instead of competitive approach to the frequentist methods. For the fixed Bayesian design, the hypothesis testing can be cast in the posterior probability or Bayes factor framework, which has a direct link to the frequentist type I error rate. Bayesian group sequential design relies upon Bayesian decision-theoretic approaches based on backward induction, which is often computationally intensive. Compared with the frequentist approaches, Bayesian methods have several advantages. The posterior predictive probability serves as a useful and convenient tool for trial monitoring, and can be updated at any time as the data accrue during the trial. The Bayesian decision-theoretic framework possesses a direct link to the decision making in the practical setting, and can be modeled more realistically to reflect the actual cost-benefit analysis during the drug development process. Other merits include the possibility of hierarchical modeling and the use of informative priors, which would lead to a more comprehensive utilization of information from both historical and longitudinal data. From fixed to adaptive design, we focus on Bayesian randomized controlled clinical trials and make extensive comparisons with frequentist counterparts through numerical studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lithium ion beam divergence on SABRE extraction ion diode experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanson, D.L.; Cuneo, M.E.; Johnson, D.J.

Intense lithium beams are of particular interest for light ion inertial confinement fusion applications because lithium ions can be accelerated at high voltage in a single charge state (Li{sup +}) with a high mass-to-charge ratio and appropriate range for efficient focusing and heating of a hohlraum ICF target. Scaling to ion power densities adequate to drive high gain pellet implosions (600 TW at 30 MeV) will require a large number of beams transported, temporally bunched, and focused onto a target, with the necessary target standoff to ensure survival of the driver modules. For efficient long distance transport and focusing tomore » a small pellet, lithium beam divergence must be reduced to about 12 mrad or less (depending on the transport scheme). To support the eventual development of a light ion driver module for ICF applications, the authors are currently working to improve the composition, uniformity, and divergence of lithium ion beams produced by both passive LiF and active laser-generated lithium ion sources on extraction applied-B ion diodes on the SABRE accelerator (1 TW, 5 MV, 250 kA). While lithium beam divergence accounting and control are an essential goal of these experiments, divergence measurements for lithium beams present some unique problems not encountered to the same degree in divergence measurements on proton sources. To avoid these difficulties, the authors have developed a large aperture ion imaging diagnostic for time-resolved lithium divergence measurements. The authors will report on the operation of this lithium beam divergence diagnostic and on results of time-resolved divergence measurements in progress for passive LiF ion sources and laser-produced active lithium sources operated in diode configurations designed to control divergence growth. Comparisons will also be made with time-integrated divergence results obtained with small entrance aperture ultracompact pinhole cameras.« less

Predicting forest insect flight activity: A Bayesian network approach

Treesearch

Stephen M. Pawson; Bruce G. Marcot; Owen G. Woodberry

2017-01-01

Daily flight activity patterns of forest insects are influenced by temporal and meteorological conditions. Temperature and time of day are frequently cited as key drivers of activity; however, complex interactions between multiple contributing factors have also been proposed. Here, we report individual Bayesian network models to assess the probability of flight...

Pretense, Counterfactuals, and Bayesian Causal Models: Why What Is Not Real Really Matters

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weisberg, Deena S.; Gopnik, Alison

2013-01-01

Young children spend a large portion of their time pretending about non-real situations. Why? We answer this question by using the framework of Bayesian causal models to argue that pretending and counterfactual reasoning engage the same component cognitive abilities: disengaging with current reality, making inferences about an alternative…

Bayesian statistics: estimating plant demographic parameters

Treesearch

James S. Clark; Michael Lavine

2001-01-01

There are times when external information should be brought tobear on an ecological analysis. experiments are never conducted in a knowledge-free context. The inference we draw from an observation may depend on everything else we know about the process. Bayesian analysis is a method that brings outside evidence into the analysis of experimental and observational data...

Maritime Transportation Risk Assessment of Tianjin Port with Bayesian Belief Networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Jinfen; Teixeira, Ângelo P; Guedes Soares, C; Yan, Xinping; Liu, Kezhong

2016-06-01

This article develops a Bayesian belief network model for the prediction of accident consequences in the Tianjin port. The study starts with a statistical analysis of historical accident data of six years from 2008 to 2013. Then a Bayesian belief network is constructed to express the dependencies between the indicator variables and accident consequences. The statistics and expert knowledge are synthesized in the Bayesian belief network model to obtain the probability distribution of the consequences. By a sensitivity analysis, several indicator variables that have influence on the consequences are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequences are most sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred, followed by time of day and ship length. The results also reflect that the navigational risk of the Tianjin port is at the acceptable level, despite that there is more room of improvement. These results can be used by the Maritime Safety Administration to take effective measures to enhance maritime safety in the Tianjin port. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Time irreversibility of financial time series based on higher moments and multiscale Kullback-Leibler divergence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jinyang; Shang, Pengjian

2018-07-01

Irreversibility is an important property of time series. In this paper, we propose the higher moments and multiscale Kullback-Leibler divergence to analyze time series irreversibility. The higher moments Kullback-Leibler divergence (HMKLD) can amplify irreversibility and make the irreversibility variation more obvious. Therefore, many time series whose irreversibility is hard to be found are also able to show the variations. We employ simulated data and financial stock data to test and verify this method, and find that HMKLD of stock data is growing in the form of fluctuations. As for multiscale Kullback-Leibler divergence (MKLD), it is very complex in the dynamic system, so that exploring the law of simulation and stock system is difficult. In conventional multiscale entropy method, the coarse-graining process is non-overlapping, however we apply a different coarse-graining process and obtain a surprising discovery. The result shows when the scales are 4 and 5, their entropy is nearly similar, which demonstrates MKLD is efficient to display characteristics of time series irreversibility.

Advanced obstacle avoidance for a laser based wheelchair using optimised Bayesian neural networks.

PubMed

Trieu, Hoang T; Nguyen, Hung T; Willey, Keith

2008-01-01

In this paper we present an advanced method of obstacle avoidance for a laser based intelligent wheelchair using optimized Bayesian neural networks. Three neural networks are designed for three separate sub-tasks: passing through a door way, corridor and wall following and general obstacle avoidance. The accurate usable accessible space is determined by including the actual wheelchair dimensions in a real-time map used as inputs to each networks. Data acquisitions are performed separately to collect the patterns required for specified sub-tasks. Bayesian frame work is used to determine the optimal neural network structure in each case. Then these networks are trained under the supervision of Bayesian rule. Experiment results showed that compare to the VFH algorithm our neural networks navigated a smoother path following a near optimum trajectory.

Impact of duplicate gene copies on phylogenetic analysis and divergence time estimates in butterflies.

PubMed

Pohl, Nélida; Sison-Mangus, Marilou P; Yee, Emily N; Liswi, Saif W; Briscoe, Adriana D

2009-05-13

The increase in availability of genomic sequences for a wide range of organisms has revealed gene duplication to be a relatively common event. Encounters with duplicate gene copies have consequently become almost inevitable in the context of collecting gene sequences for inferring species trees. Here we examine the effect of incorporating duplicate gene copies evolving at different rates on tree reconstruction and time estimation of recent and deep divergences in butterflies. Sequences from ultraviolet-sensitive (UVRh), blue-sensitive (BRh), and long-wavelength sensitive (LWRh) opsins,EF-1 and COI were obtained from 27 taxa representing the five major butterfly families (5535 bp total). Both BRh and LWRh are present in multiple copies in some butterfly lineages and the different copies evolve at different rates. Regardless of the phylogenetic reconstruction method used, we found that analyses of combined data sets using either slower or faster evolving copies of duplicate genes resulted in a single topology in agreement with our current understanding of butterfly family relationships based on morphology and molecules. Interestingly, individual analyses of BRh and LWRh sequences also recovered these family-level relationships. Two different relaxed clock methods resulted in similar divergence time estimates at the shallower nodes in the tree, regardless of whether faster or slower evolving copies were used, with larger discrepancies observed at deeper nodes in the phylogeny. The time of divergence between the monarch butterfly Danaus plexippus and the queen D. gilippus (15.3-35.6 Mya) was found to be much older than the time of divergence between monarch co-mimic Limenitis archippus and red-spotted purple L. arthemis (4.7-13.6 Mya), and overlapping with the time of divergence of the co-mimetic passionflower butterflies Heliconius erato and H. melpomene (13.5-26.1 Mya). Our family-level results are congruent with recent estimates found in the literature and indicate an age of 84-113 million years for the divergence of all butterfly families. These results are consistent with diversification of the butterfly families following the radiation of angiosperms and suggest that some classes of opsin genes may be usefully employed for both phylogenetic reconstruction and divergence time estimation.

A comparison of two worlds: How does Bayes hold up to the status quo for the analysis of clinical trials?

PubMed

Pressman, Alice R; Avins, Andrew L; Hubbard, Alan; Satariano, William A

2011-07-01

There is a paucity of literature comparing Bayesian analytic techniques with traditional approaches for analyzing clinical trials using real trial data. We compared Bayesian and frequentist group sequential methods using data from two published clinical trials. We chose two widely accepted frequentist rules, O'Brien-Fleming and Lan-DeMets, and conjugate Bayesian priors. Using the nonparametric bootstrap, we estimated a sampling distribution of stopping times for each method. Because current practice dictates the preservation of an experiment-wise false positive rate (Type I error), we approximated these error rates for our Bayesian and frequentist analyses with the posterior probability of detecting an effect in a simulated null sample. Thus for the data-generated distribution represented by these trials, we were able to compare the relative performance of these techniques. No final outcomes differed from those of the original trials. However, the timing of trial termination differed substantially by method and varied by trial. For one trial, group sequential designs of either type dictated early stopping of the study. In the other, stopping times were dependent upon the choice of spending function and prior distribution. Results indicate that trialists ought to consider Bayesian methods in addition to traditional approaches for analysis of clinical trials. Though findings from this small sample did not demonstrate either method to consistently outperform the other, they did suggest the need to replicate these comparisons using data from varied clinical trials in order to determine the conditions under which the different methods would be most efficient. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A comparison of two worlds: How does Bayes hold up to the status quo for the analysis of clinical trials?

PubMed Central

Pressman, Alice R.; Avins, Andrew L.; Hubbard, Alan; Satariano, William A.

2014-01-01

Background There is a paucity of literature comparing Bayesian analytic techniques with traditional approaches for analyzing clinical trials using real trial data. Methods We compared Bayesian and frequentist group sequential methods using data from two published clinical trials. We chose two widely accepted frequentist rules, O'Brien–Fleming and Lan–DeMets, and conjugate Bayesian priors. Using the nonparametric bootstrap, we estimated a sampling distribution of stopping times for each method. Because current practice dictates the preservation of an experiment-wise false positive rate (Type I error), we approximated these error rates for our Bayesian and frequentist analyses with the posterior probability of detecting an effect in a simulated null sample. Thus for the data-generated distribution represented by these trials, we were able to compare the relative performance of these techniques. Results No final outcomes differed from those of the original trials. However, the timing of trial termination differed substantially by method and varied by trial. For one trial, group sequential designs of either type dictated early stopping of the study. In the other, stopping times were dependent upon the choice of spending function and prior distribution. Conclusions Results indicate that trialists ought to consider Bayesian methods in addition to traditional approaches for analysis of clinical trials. Though findings from this small sample did not demonstrate either method to consistently outperform the other, they did suggest the need to replicate these comparisons using data from varied clinical trials in order to determine the conditions under which the different methods would be most efficient. PMID:21453792

Alternative glacial-interglacial refugia demographic hypotheses tested on Cephalocereus columna-trajani (Cactaceae) in the intertropical Mexican drylands

PubMed Central

Cornejo-Romero, Amelia; Aguilar-Martínez, Gustavo F.; Medina-Sánchez, Javier; Rendón-Aguilar, Beatriz; Valverde, Pedro Luis; Zavala-Hurtado, Jose Alejandro; Serrato, Alejandra; Rivas-Arancibia, Sombra; Pérez-Hernández, Marco Aurelio; López-Ortega, Gerardo; Jiménez-Sierra, Cecilia

2017-01-01

Historic demography changes of plant species adapted to New World arid environments could be consistent with either the Glacial Refugium Hypothesis (GRH), which posits that populations contracted to refuges during the cold-dry glacial and expanded in warm-humid interglacial periods, or with the Interglacial Refugium Hypothesis (IRH), which suggests that populations contracted during interglacials and expanded in glacial times. These contrasting hypotheses are developed in the present study for the giant columnar cactus Cephalocereus columna-trajani in the intertropical Mexican drylands where the effects of Late Quaternary climatic changes on phylogeography of cacti remain largely unknown. In order to determine if the historic demography and phylogeographic structure of the species are consistent with either hypothesis, sequences of the chloroplast regions psbA-trnH and trnT-trnL from 110 individuals from 10 populations comprising the full distribution range of this species were analysed. Standard estimators of genetic diversity and structure were calculated. The historic demography was analysed using a Bayesian approach and the palaeodistribution was derived from ecological niche modelling to determine if, in the arid environments of south-central Mexico, glacial-interglacial cycles drove the genetic divergence and diversification of this species. Results reveal low but statistically significant population differentiation (FST = 0.124, P < 0.001), although very clear geographic clusters are not formed. Genetic diversity, haplotype network and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) demographic analyses suggest a population expansion estimated to have taken place in the Last Interglacial (123.04 kya, 95% CI 115.3–130.03). The species palaeodistribution is consistent with the ABC analyses and indicates that the potential area of palaedistribution and climatic suitability were larger during the Last Interglacial and Holocene than in the Last Glacial Maximum. Overall, these results suggest that C. columna-trajani experienced an expansion following the warm conditions of interglacials, in accordance with the GRH. PMID:28426818

Alternative glacial-interglacial refugia demographic hypotheses tested on Cephalocereus columna-trajani (Cactaceae) in the intertropical Mexican drylands.

PubMed

Cornejo-Romero, Amelia; Vargas-Mendoza, Carlos Fabián; Aguilar-Martínez, Gustavo F; Medina-Sánchez, Javier; Rendón-Aguilar, Beatriz; Valverde, Pedro Luis; Zavala-Hurtado, Jose Alejandro; Serrato, Alejandra; Rivas-Arancibia, Sombra; Pérez-Hernández, Marco Aurelio; López-Ortega, Gerardo; Jiménez-Sierra, Cecilia

2017-01-01

Historic demography changes of plant species adapted to New World arid environments could be consistent with either the Glacial Refugium Hypothesis (GRH), which posits that populations contracted to refuges during the cold-dry glacial and expanded in warm-humid interglacial periods, or with the Interglacial Refugium Hypothesis (IRH), which suggests that populations contracted during interglacials and expanded in glacial times. These contrasting hypotheses are developed in the present study for the giant columnar cactus Cephalocereus columna-trajani in the intertropical Mexican drylands where the effects of Late Quaternary climatic changes on phylogeography of cacti remain largely unknown. In order to determine if the historic demography and phylogeographic structure of the species are consistent with either hypothesis, sequences of the chloroplast regions psbA-trnH and trnT-trnL from 110 individuals from 10 populations comprising the full distribution range of this species were analysed. Standard estimators of genetic diversity and structure were calculated. The historic demography was analysed using a Bayesian approach and the palaeodistribution was derived from ecological niche modelling to determine if, in the arid environments of south-central Mexico, glacial-interglacial cycles drove the genetic divergence and diversification of this species. Results reveal low but statistically significant population differentiation (FST = 0.124, P < 0.001), although very clear geographic clusters are not formed. Genetic diversity, haplotype network and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) demographic analyses suggest a population expansion estimated to have taken place in the Last Interglacial (123.04 kya, 95% CI 115.3-130.03). The species palaeodistribution is consistent with the ABC analyses and indicates that the potential area of palaedistribution and climatic suitability were larger during the Last Interglacial and Holocene than in the Last Glacial Maximum. Overall, these results suggest that C. columna-trajani experienced an expansion following the warm conditions of interglacials, in accordance with the GRH.

Multiple continental radiations and correlates of diversification in Lupinus (Leguminosae): testing for key innovation with incomplete taxon sampling.

PubMed

Drummond, Christopher S; Eastwood, Ruth J; Miotto, Silvia T S; Hughes, Colin E

2012-05-01

Replicate radiations provide powerful comparative systems to address questions about the interplay between opportunity and innovation in driving episodes of diversification and the factors limiting their subsequent progression. However, such systems have been rarely documented at intercontinental scales. Here, we evaluate the hypothesis of multiple radiations in the genus Lupinus (Leguminosae), which exhibits some of the highest known rates of net diversification in plants. Given that incomplete taxon sampling, background extinction, and lineage-specific variation in diversification rates can confound macroevolutionary inferences regarding the timing and mechanisms of cladogenesis, we used Bayesian relaxed clock phylogenetic analyses as well as MEDUSA and BiSSE birth-death likelihood models of diversification, to evaluate the evolutionary patterns of lineage accumulation in Lupinus. We identified 3 significant shifts to increased rates of net diversification (r) relative to background levels in the genus (r = 0.18-0.48 lineages/myr). The primary shift occurred approximately 4.6 Ma (r = 0.48-1.76) in the montane regions of western North America, followed by a secondary shift approximately 2.7 Ma (r = 0.89-3.33) associated with range expansion and diversification of allopatrically distributed sister clades in the Mexican highlands and Andes. We also recovered evidence for a third independent shift approximately 6.5 Ma at the base of a lower elevation eastern South American grassland and campo rupestre clade (r = 0.36-1.33). Bayesian ancestral state reconstructions and BiSSE likelihood analyses of correlated diversification indicated that increased rates of speciation are strongly associated with the derived evolution of perennial life history and invasion of montane ecosystems. Although we currently lack hard evidence for "replicate adaptive radiations" in the sense of convergent morphological and ecological trajectories among species in different clades, these results are consistent with the hypothesis that iteroparity functioned as an adaptive key innovation, providing a mechanism for range expansion and rapid divergence in upper elevation regions across much of the New World.

Spatially constrained Bayesian inversion of frequency- and time-domain electromagnetic data from the Tellus projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiyan, Duygu; Rath, Volker; Delhaye, Robert

2017-04-01

The frequency- and time-domain airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data collected under the Tellus projects of the Geological Survey of Ireland (GSI) which represent a wealth of information on the multi-dimensional electrical structure of Ireland's near-surface. Our project, which was funded by GSI under the framework of their Short Call Research Programme, aims to develop and implement inverse techniques based on various Bayesian methods for these densely sampled data. We have developed a highly flexible toolbox using Python language for the one-dimensional inversion of AEM data along the flight lines. The computational core is based on an adapted frequency- and time-domain forward modelling core derived from the well-tested open-source code AirBeo, which was developed by the CSIRO (Australia) and the AMIRA consortium. Three different inversion methods have been implemented: (i) Tikhonov-type inversion including optimal regularisation methods (Aster el al., 2012; Zhdanov, 2015), (ii) Bayesian MAP inversion in parameter and data space (e.g. Tarantola, 2005), and (iii) Full Bayesian inversion with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (Sambridge and Mosegaard, 2002; Mosegaard and Sambridge, 2002), all including different forms of spatial constraints. The methods have been tested on synthetic and field data. This contribution will introduce the toolbox and present case studies on the AEM data from the Tellus projects.

Light-sheet Bayesian microscopy enables deep-cell super-resolution imaging of heterochromatin in live human embryonic stem cells.

PubMed

Hu, Ying S; Zhu, Quan; Elkins, Keri; Tse, Kevin; Li, Yu; Fitzpatrick, James A J; Verma, Inder M; Cang, Hu

2013-01-01

Heterochromatin in the nucleus of human embryonic cells plays an important role in the epigenetic regulation of gene expression. The architecture of heterochromatin and its dynamic organization remain elusive because of the lack of fast and high-resolution deep-cell imaging tools. We enable this task by advancing instrumental and algorithmic implementation of the localization-based super-resolution technique. We present light-sheet Bayesian super-resolution microscopy (LSBM). We adapt light-sheet illumination for super-resolution imaging by using a novel prism-coupled condenser design to illuminate a thin slice of the nucleus with high signal-to-noise ratio. Coupled with a Bayesian algorithm that resolves overlapping fluorophores from high-density areas, we show, for the first time, nanoscopic features of the heterochromatin structure in both fixed and live human embryonic stem cells. The enhanced temporal resolution allows capturing the dynamic change of heterochromatin with a lateral resolution of 50-60 nm on a time scale of 2.3 s. Light-sheet Bayesian microscopy opens up broad new possibilities of probing nanometer-scale nuclear structures and real-time sub-cellular processes and other previously difficult-to-access intracellular regions of living cells at the single-molecule, and single cell level.