Testing Models of Stellar Structure and Evolution I. Comparison with Detached Eclipsing Binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

del Burgo, C.; Allende Prieto, C.

2018-05-01

We present the results of an analysis aimed at testing the accuracy and precision of the PARSEC v1.2S library of stellar evolution models, combined with a Bayesian approach, to infer stellar parameters. We mainly employ the online DEBCat catalogue by Southworth, a compilation of detached eclipsing binary systems with published measurements of masses and radii to ˜ 2 per cent precision. We select a sample of 318 binary components, with masses between 0.10 and 14.5 solar units, and distances between 1.3 pc and ˜ 8 kpc for Galactic objects and ˜ 44-68 kpc for the extragalactic ones. The Bayesian analysis applied takes on input effective temperature, radius, and [Fe/H], and their uncertainties, returning theoretical predictions for other stellar parameters. From the comparison with dynamical masses, we conclude inferred masses are precisely derived for stars on the main-sequence and in the core-helium-burning phase, with respective uncertainties of 4 per cent and 7 per cent, on average. Subgiants and red giants masses are predicted within 14 per cent, and early asymptotic giant branch stars within 24 per cent. These results are helpful to further improve the models, in particular for advanced evolutionary stages for which our understanding is limited. We obtain distances and ages for the binary systems and compare them, whenever possible, with precise literature estimates, finding excellent agreement. We discuss evolutionary effects and the challenges associated with the inference of stellar ages from evolutionary models. We also provide useful polynomial fittings to theoretical zero-age main-sequence relations.

A Systematic Bayesian Integration of Epidemiological and Genetic Data

PubMed Central

Lau, Max S. Y.; Marion, Glenn; Streftaris, George; Gibson, Gavin

2015-01-01

Genetic sequence data on pathogens have great potential to inform inference of their transmission dynamics ultimately leading to better disease control. Where genetic change and disease transmission occur on comparable timescales additional information can be inferred via the joint analysis of such genetic sequence data and epidemiological observations based on clinical symptoms and diagnostic tests. Although recently introduced approaches represent substantial progress, for computational reasons they approximate genuine joint inference of disease dynamics and genetic change in the pathogen population, capturing partially the joint epidemiological-evolutionary dynamics. Improved methods are needed to fully integrate such genetic data with epidemiological observations, for achieving a more robust inference of the transmission tree and other key epidemiological parameters such as latent periods. Here, building on current literature, a novel Bayesian framework is proposed that infers simultaneously and explicitly the transmission tree and unobserved transmitted pathogen sequences. Our framework facilitates the use of realistic likelihood functions and enables systematic and genuine joint inference of the epidemiological-evolutionary process from partially observed outbreaks. Using simulated data it is shown that this approach is able to infer accurately joint epidemiological-evolutionary dynamics, even when pathogen sequences and epidemiological data are incomplete, and when sequences are available for only a fraction of exposures. These results also characterise and quantify the value of incomplete and partial sequence data, which has important implications for sampling design, and demonstrate the abilities of the introduced method to identify multiple clusters within an outbreak. The framework is used to analyse an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the UK, enhancing current understanding of its transmission dynamics and evolutionary process. PMID:26599399

Novel non-parametric models to estimate evolutionary rates and divergence times from heterochronous sequence data.

PubMed

Fourment, Mathieu; Holmes, Edward C

2014-07-24

Early methods for estimating divergence times from gene sequence data relied on the assumption of a molecular clock. More sophisticated methods were created to model rate variation and used auto-correlation of rates, local clocks, or the so called "uncorrelated relaxed clock" where substitution rates are assumed to be drawn from a parametric distribution. In the case of Bayesian inference methods the impact of the prior on branching times is not clearly understood, and if the amount of data is limited the posterior could be strongly influenced by the prior. We develop a maximum likelihood method--Physher--that uses local or discrete clocks to estimate evolutionary rates and divergence times from heterochronous sequence data. Using two empirical data sets we show that our discrete clock estimates are similar to those obtained by other methods, and that Physher outperformed some methods in the estimation of the root age of an influenza virus data set. A simulation analysis suggests that Physher can outperform a Bayesian method when the real topology contains two long branches below the root node, even when evolution is strongly clock-like. These results suggest it is advisable to use a variety of methods to estimate evolutionary rates and divergence times from heterochronous sequence data. Physher and the associated data sets used here are available online at http://code.google.com/p/physher/.

Evolutionary history of African mongoose rabies.

PubMed

Van Zyl, N; Markotter, W; Nel, L H

2010-06-01

Two biotypes or variants of rabies virus (RABV) occur in southern Africa. These variants are respectively adapted to hosts belonging to the Canidae family (the canid variant) and hosts belonging to the Herpestidae family (the mongoose variant). Due to the distinct host adaptation and differences in epidemiology and pathogenesis, it has been hypothesized that the two variants were introduced into Africa at different times. The objective of this study was to investigate the molecular phylogeny of representative RABV isolates of the mongoose variant towards a better understanding of the origins of this group. The study was based on an analysis of the full nucleoprotein and glycoprotein gene sequences of a panel of 27 viruses. Phylogenetic analysis of this dataset confirmed extended evolutionary adaptation of isolates in specific geographic areas. The evolutionary dynamics of this virus variant was investigated using Bayesian methodology, allowing for rate variation among viral lineages. Molecular clock analysis estimated the age of the African mongoose RABV to be approximately 200 years old, which is in concurrence with literature describing rabies in mongooses since the early 1800 s. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The ConSurf-DB: pre-calculated evolutionary conservation profiles of protein structures.

PubMed

Goldenberg, Ofir; Erez, Elana; Nimrod, Guy; Ben-Tal, Nir

2009-01-01

ConSurf-DB is a repository for evolutionary conservation analysis of the proteins of known structures in the Protein Data Bank (PDB). Sequence homologues of each of the PDB entries were collected and aligned using standard methods. The evolutionary conservation of each amino acid position in the alignment was calculated using the Rate4Site algorithm, implemented in the ConSurf web server. The algorithm takes into account the phylogenetic relations between the aligned proteins and the stochastic nature of the evolutionary process explicitly. Rate4Site assigns a conservation level for each position in the multiple sequence alignment using an empirical Bayesian inference. Visual inspection of the conservation patterns on the 3D structure often enables the identification of key residues that comprise the functionally important regions of the protein. The repository is updated with the latest PDB entries on a monthly basis and will be rebuilt annually. ConSurf-DB is available online at http://consurfdb.tau.ac.il/

The ConSurf-DB: pre-calculated evolutionary conservation profiles of protein structures

PubMed Central

Goldenberg, Ofir; Erez, Elana; Nimrod, Guy; Ben-Tal, Nir

2009-01-01

ConSurf-DB is a repository for evolutionary conservation analysis of the proteins of known structures in the Protein Data Bank (PDB). Sequence homologues of each of the PDB entries were collected and aligned using standard methods. The evolutionary conservation of each amino acid position in the alignment was calculated using the Rate4Site algorithm, implemented in the ConSurf web server. The algorithm takes into account the phylogenetic relations between the aligned proteins and the stochastic nature of the evolutionary process explicitly. Rate4Site assigns a conservation level for each position in the multiple sequence alignment using an empirical Bayesian inference. Visual inspection of the conservation patterns on the 3D structure often enables the identification of key residues that comprise the functionally important regions of the protein. The repository is updated with the latest PDB entries on a monthly basis and will be rebuilt annually. ConSurf-DB is available online at http://consurfdb.tau.ac.il/ PMID:18971256

Analysis of 41 plant genomes supports a wave of successful genome duplications in association with the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary

PubMed Central

Vanneste, Kevin; Baele, Guy; Maere, Steven; Van de Peer, Yves

2014-01-01

Ancient whole-genome duplications (WGDs), also referred to as paleopolyploidizations, have been reported in most evolutionary lineages. Their attributed role remains a major topic of discussion, ranging from an evolutionary dead end to a road toward evolutionary success, with evidence supporting both fates. Previously, based on dating WGDs in a limited number of plant species, we found a clustering of angiosperm paleopolyploidizations around the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) extinction event about 66 million years ago. Here we revisit this finding, which has proven controversial, by combining genome sequence information for many more plant lineages and using more sophisticated analyses. We include 38 full genome sequences and three transcriptome assemblies in a Bayesian evolutionary analysis framework that incorporates uncorrelated relaxed clock methods and fossil uncertainty. In accordance with earlier findings, we demonstrate a strongly nonrandom pattern of genome duplications over time with many WGDs clustering around the K–Pg boundary. We interpret these results in the context of recent studies on invasive polyploid plant species, and suggest that polyploid establishment is promoted during times of environmental stress. We argue that considering the evolutionary potential of polyploids in light of the environmental and ecological conditions present around the time of polyploidization could mitigate the stark contrast in the proposed evolutionary fates of polyploids. PMID:24835588

Convergence among cave catfishes: long-branch attraction and a Bayesian relative rates test.

PubMed

Wilcox, T P; García de León, F J; Hendrickson, D A; Hillis, D M

2004-06-01

Convergence has long been of interest to evolutionary biologists. Cave organisms appear to be ideal candidates for studying convergence in morphological, physiological, and developmental traits. Here we report apparent convergence in two cave-catfishes that were described on morphological grounds as congeners: Prietella phreatophila and Prietella lundbergi. We collected mitochondrial DNA sequence data from 10 species of catfishes, representing five of the seven genera in Ictaluridae, as well as seven species from a broad range of siluriform outgroups. Analysis of the sequence data under parsimony supports a monophyletic Prietella. However, both maximum-likelihood and Bayesian analyses support polyphyly of the genus, with P. lundbergi sister to Ictalurus and P. phreatophila sister to Ameiurus. The topological difference between parsimony and the other methods appears to result from long-branch attraction between the Prietella species. Similarly, the sequence data do not support several other relationships within Ictaluridae supported by morphology. We develop a new Bayesian method for examining variation in molecular rates of evolution across a phylogeny.

Restricted Gene Flow among Hospital Subpopulations of Enterococcus faecium

PubMed Central

Willems, Rob J. L.; Top, Janetta; van Schaik, Willem; Leavis, Helen; Bonten, Marc; Sirén, Jukka; Hanage, William P.; Corander, Jukka

2012-01-01

ABSTRACT Enterococcus faecium has recently emerged as an important multiresistant nosocomial pathogen. Defining population structure in this species is required to provide insight into the existence, distribution, and dynamics of specific multiresistant or pathogenic lineages in particular environments, like the hospital. Here, we probe the population structure of E. faecium using Bayesian-based population genetic modeling implemented in Bayesian Analysis of Population Structure (BAPS) software. The analysis involved 1,720 isolates belonging to 519 sequence types (STs) (491 for E. faecium and 28 for Enterococcus faecalis). E. faecium isolates grouped into 13 BAPS (sub)groups, but the large majority (80%) of nosocomial isolates clustered in two subgroups (2-1 and 3-3). Phylogenetic and eBURST analysis of BAPS groups 2 and 3 confirmed the existence of three separate hospital lineages (17, 18, and 78), highlighting different evolutionary trajectories for BAPS 2-1 (lineage 78) and 3-3 (lineage 17 and lineage 18) isolates. Phylogenomic analysis of 29 E. faecium isolates showed agreement between BAPS assignment of STs and their relative positions in the phylogenetic tree. Odds ratio calculation confirmed the significant association between hospital isolates with BAPS 3-3 and lineages 17, 18, and 78. Admixture analysis showed a scarce number of recombination events between the different BAPS groups. For the E. faecium hospital population, we propose an evolutionary model in which strains with a high propensity to colonize and infect hospitalized patients arise through horizontal gene transfer. Once adapted to the distinct hospital niche, this subpopulation becomes isolated, and recombination with other populations declines. PMID:22807567

Phylogenetic analysis and victim contact tracing of rabies virus from humans and dogs in Bali, Indonesia.

PubMed

Mahardika, G N K; Dibia, N; Budayanti, N S; Susilawathi, N M; Subrata, K; Darwinata, A E; Wignall, F S; Richt, J A; Valdivia-Granda, W A; Sudewi, A A R

2014-06-01

The emergence of human and animal rabies in Bali since November 2008 has attracted local, national and international interest. The potential origin and time of introduction of rabies virus to Bali is described. The nucleoprotein (N) gene of rabies virus from dog brain and human clinical specimens was sequenced using an automated DNA sequencer. Phylogenetic inference with Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis using the Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis by Sampling Trees (BEAST) v. 1.7.5 software confirmed that the outbreak of rabies in Bali was caused by an Indonesian lineage virus following a single introduction. The ancestor of Bali viruses was the descendant of a virus from Kalimantan. Contact tracing showed that the event most likely occurred in early 2008. The introduction of rabies into a large unvaccinated dog population in Bali clearly demonstrates the risk of disease transmission for government agencies and should lead to an increased preparedness and efforts for sustained risk reduction to prevent such events from occurring in future.

The mitochondrial genome of Elodia flavipalpis Aldrich (Diptera: Tachinidae) and the evolutionary timescale of Tachinid flies.

PubMed

Zhao, Zhe; Su, Tian-Juan; Chesters, Douglas; Wang, Shi-di; Ho, Simon Y W; Zhu, Chao-Dong; Chen, Xiao-Lin; Zhang, Chun-Tian

2013-01-01

Tachinid flies are natural enemies of many lepidopteran and coleopteran pests of forests, crops, and fruit trees. In order to address the lack of genetic data in this economically important group, we sequenced the complete mitochondrial genome of the Palaearctic tachinid fly Elodia flavipalpis Aldrich, 1933. Usually found in Northern China and Japan, this species is one of the primary natural enemies of the leaf-roller moths (Tortricidae), which are major pests of various fruit trees. The 14,932-bp mitochondrial genome was typical of Diptera, with 13 protein-coding genes, 22 tRNA genes, and 2 rRNA genes. However, its control region is only 105 bp in length, which is the shortest found so far in flies. In order to estimate dipteran evolutionary relationships, we conducted a phylogenetic analysis of 58 mitochondrial genomes from 23 families. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods supported the monophyly of both Tachinidae and superfamily Oestroidea. Within the subsection Calyptratae, Muscidae was inferred as the sister group to Oestroidea. Within Oestroidea, Calliphoridae and Sarcophagidae formed a sister clade to Oestridae and Tachinidae. Using a Bayesian relaxed clock calibrated with fossil data, we estimated that Tachinidae originated in the middle Eocene.

The Mitochondrial Genome of Elodia flavipalpis Aldrich (Diptera: Tachinidae) and the Evolutionary Timescale of Tachinid Flies

PubMed Central

Zhao, Zhe; Su, Tian-juan; Chesters, Douglas; Wang, Shi-di; Ho, Simon Y. W.; Zhu, Chao-dong; Chen, Xiao-lin; Zhang, Chun-tian

2013-01-01

Tachinid flies are natural enemies of many lepidopteran and coleopteran pests of forests, crops, and fruit trees. In order to address the lack of genetic data in this economically important group, we sequenced the complete mitochondrial genome of the Palaearctic tachinid fly Elodia flavipalpis Aldrich, 1933. Usually found in Northern China and Japan, this species is one of the primary natural enemies of the leaf-roller moths (Tortricidae), which are major pests of various fruit trees. The 14,932-bp mitochondrial genome was typical of Diptera, with 13 protein-coding genes, 22 tRNA genes, and 2 rRNA genes. However, its control region is only 105 bp in length, which is the shortest found so far in flies. In order to estimate dipteran evolutionary relationships, we conducted a phylogenetic analysis of 58 mitochondrial genomes from 23 families. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods supported the monophyly of both Tachinidae and superfamily Oestroidea. Within the subsection Calyptratae, Muscidae was inferred as the sister group to Oestroidea. Within Oestroidea, Calliphoridae and Sarcophagidae formed a sister clade to Oestridae and Tachinidae. Using a Bayesian relaxed clock calibrated with fossil data, we estimated that Tachinidae originated in the middle Eocene. PMID:23626734

Inferring population history with DIY ABC: a user-friendly approach to approximate Bayesian computation.

PubMed

Cornuet, Jean-Marie; Santos, Filipe; Beaumont, Mark A; Robert, Christian P; Marin, Jean-Michel; Balding, David J; Guillemaud, Thomas; Estoup, Arnaud

2008-12-01

Genetic data obtained on population samples convey information about their evolutionary history. Inference methods can extract part of this information but they require sophisticated statistical techniques that have been made available to the biologist community (through computer programs) only for simple and standard situations typically involving a small number of samples. We propose here a computer program (DIY ABC) for inference based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), in which scenarios can be customized by the user to fit many complex situations involving any number of populations and samples. Such scenarios involve any combination of population divergences, admixtures and population size changes. DIY ABC can be used to compare competing scenarios, estimate parameters for one or more scenarios and compute bias and precision measures for a given scenario and known values of parameters (the current version applies to unlinked microsatellite data). This article describes key methods used in the program and provides its main features. The analysis of one simulated and one real dataset, both with complex evolutionary scenarios, illustrates the main possibilities of DIY ABC. The software DIY ABC is freely available at http://www.montpellier.inra.fr/CBGP/diyabc.

The effect of iconicity of visual displays on statistical reasoning: evidence in favor of the null hypothesis.

PubMed

Sirota, Miroslav; Kostovičová, Lenka; Juanchich, Marie

2014-08-01

Knowing which properties of visual displays facilitate statistical reasoning bears practical and theoretical implications. Therefore, we studied the effect of one property of visual diplays - iconicity (i.e., the resemblance of a visual sign to its referent) - on Bayesian reasoning. Two main accounts of statistical reasoning predict different effect of iconicity on Bayesian reasoning. The ecological-rationality account predicts a positive iconicity effect, because more highly iconic signs resemble more individuated objects, which tap better into an evolutionary-designed frequency-coding mechanism that, in turn, facilitates Bayesian reasoning. The nested-sets account predicts a null iconicity effect, because iconicity does not affect the salience of a nested-sets structure-the factor facilitating Bayesian reasoning processed by a general reasoning mechanism. In two well-powered experiments (N = 577), we found no support for a positive iconicity effect across different iconicity levels that were manipulated in different visual displays (meta-analytical overall effect: log OR = -0.13, 95% CI [-0.53, 0.28]). A Bayes factor analysis provided strong evidence in favor of the null hypothesis-the null iconicity effect. Thus, these findings corroborate the nested-sets rather than the ecological-rationality account of statistical reasoning.

New Mycobacterium tuberculosis LAM sublineage with geographical specificity for the Old World revealed by phylogenetical and Bayesian analyses.

PubMed

Reynaud, Yann; Rastogi, Nalin

2016-12-01

We recently showed that the Mycobacterium tuberculosis sublineage LAM9 could be subdivided as two distinct subpopulations - each reflecting its unique biogeographical structure and evolutionary history. We subsequently attempted to verify if this genetic structuration could be traced in an enlarged global sample. For this purpose, we analyzed global evolutionary relationships of LAM strains in a large dataset (n = 1923 isolates from 35 countries worldwide) with concomitant spoligotyping and MIRU-VNTR data, followed by a deeper analysis of LAM9 sublineage (n = 851 isolates). Based on a combination of phylogenetical analysis and Bayesian statistics, a total of three different clusters, tentatively named LAM9C1, C2 and C3 were described in this dataset. Closer inspection of the phylogenetic tree with concomitant data on origin of isolates with genetic clusterization revealed LAM9C3 being the most tightly knit group exclusively found in the Old World as opposed to LAM9C2 being a loosely-knit group without any phylogeographical specificity; while LAM9C1 appeared with a majority of strains being well-clustered despite some isolates that intermixed with unrelated LAM clusters. Subsequently, we hereby describe a new M. tuberculosis LAM sublineage named LAM9C3 with phylogeographical specificity for the Old World. These findings open new perspectives to study respective migration histories and adaptation to human hosts of specific M. tuberculosis clones during the exploration and conquest of the New World. We therefore plan to reevaluate the nomenclature and evolutionary history of various LAM sublineages using Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simultaneously estimating evolutionary history and repeated traits phylogenetic signal: applications to viral and host phenotypic evolution

PubMed Central

Vrancken, Bram; Lemey, Philippe; Rambaut, Andrew; Bedford, Trevor; Longdon, Ben; Günthard, Huldrych F.; Suchard, Marc A.

2014-01-01

Phylogenetic signal quantifies the degree to which resemblance in continuously-valued traits reflects phylogenetic relatedness. Measures of phylogenetic signal are widely used in ecological and evolutionary research, and are recently gaining traction in viral evolutionary studies. Standard estimators of phylogenetic signal frequently condition on data summary statistics of the repeated trait observations and fixed phylogenetics trees, resulting in information loss and potential bias. To incorporate the observation process and phylogenetic uncertainty in a model-based approach, we develop a novel Bayesian inference method to simultaneously estimate the evolutionary history and phylogenetic signal from molecular sequence data and repeated multivariate traits. Our approach builds upon a phylogenetic diffusion framework that model continuous trait evolution as a Brownian motion process and incorporates Pagel’s λ transformation parameter to estimate dependence among traits. We provide a computationally efficient inference implementation in the BEAST software package. We evaluate the synthetic performance of the Bayesian estimator of phylogenetic signal against standard estimators, and demonstrate the use of our coherent framework to address several virus-host evolutionary questions, including virulence heritability for HIV, antigenic evolution in influenza and HIV, and Drosophila sensitivity to sigma virus infection. Finally, we discuss model extensions that will make useful contributions to our flexible framework for simultaneously studying sequence and trait evolution. PMID:25780554

Phylogenetic relationships and evolutionary history of the Mesoamerican endemic freshwater fish family Profundulidae (Cyprinodontiformes: Actinopterygii).

PubMed

Morcillo, Felipe; Ornelas-García, Claudia Patricia; Alcaraz, Lourdes; Matamoros, Wilfredo A; Doadrio, Ignacio

2016-01-01

Freshwater fishes of Profundulidae, which until now was composed of two subgenera, represent one of the few extant fish families endemic to Mesoamerica. In this study we investigated the phylogenetic relationships and evolutionary history of the eight recognized extant species (from 37 populations) of Profundulidae using three mitochondrial and one nuclear gene markers (∼2.9 Kbp). We applied a Bayesian species delimitation method as a first approach to resolving speciation patterns within Profundulidae considering two different scenarios, eight-species and twelve-species models, obtained in a previous phylogenetic analysis. Based on our results, each of the two subgenera was resolved as monophyletic, with a remarkable molecular divergence of 24.5% for mtDNA and 7.8% for nDNA uncorrected p distances, and thus we propose that they correspond to separate genera. Moreover, we propose a conservative taxonomic hypothesis with five species within Profundulus and three within Tlaloc, although both eight-species and twelve-species models were highly supported by the bayesian species delimitation analysis, providing additional evidence of higher taxonomic diversity than currently recognized in this family. According to our divergence time estimates, the family originated during the Upper Oligocene 26 Mya, and Profundulus and Tlaloc diverged in the Upper Oligocene or Lower Miocene about 20 Mya. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Overcoming the effects of rogue taxa: Evolutionary relationships of the bee flies

PubMed Central

Trautwein, Michelle D.; Wiegmann, Brian M.; Yeates, David K

2011-01-01

Bombyliidae (5000 sp.), or bee flies, are a lower brachyceran family of flower-visiting flies that, as larvae, act as parasitoids of other insects. The evolutionary relationships are known from a morphological analysis that yielded minimal support for higher-level groupings. We use the protein-coding gene CAD and 28S rDNA to determine phylogeny and to test the monophyly of existing subfamilies, the divisions Tomophtalmae, and ‘the sand chamber subfamilies’. Additionally, we demonstrate that consensus networks can be used to identify rogue taxa in a Bayesian framework. Pruning rogue taxa post-analysis from the final tree distribution results in increased posterior probabilities. We find 8 subfamilies to be monophyletic and the subfamilies Heterotropinae and Mythicomyiinae to be the earliest diverging lineages. The large subfamily Bombyliinae is found to be polyphyletic and our data does not provide evidence for the monophyly of Tomophthalmae or the ‘sand chamber subfamilies’. PMID:21686308

Evolutionary history of the little fire ant Wasmannia auropunctata before global invasion: inferring dispersal patterns, niche requirements, and past and present distribution within its native range

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The evolutionary history of invasive species within their native range may involve key processes that allow them to colonize new habitats. We integrated classic and Bayesian phylogeographic methods with a paleodistribution modeling approach to study the demographic patterns that shaped the distribut...

Genealogical Working Distributions for Bayesian Model Testing with Phylogenetic Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Suchard, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Marginal likelihood estimates to compare models using Bayes factors frequently accompany Bayesian phylogenetic inference. Approaches to estimate marginal likelihoods have garnered increased attention over the past decade. In particular, the introduction of path sampling (PS) and stepping-stone sampling (SS) into Bayesian phylogenetics has tremendously improved the accuracy of model selection. These sampling techniques are now used to evaluate complex evolutionary and population genetic models on empirical data sets, but considerable computational demands hamper their widespread adoption. Further, when very diffuse, but proper priors are specified for model parameters, numerical issues complicate the exploration of the priors, a necessary step in marginal likelihood estimation using PS or SS. To avoid such instabilities, generalized SS (GSS) has recently been proposed, introducing the concept of “working distributions” to facilitate—or shorten—the integration process that underlies marginal likelihood estimation. However, the need to fix the tree topology currently limits GSS in a coalescent-based framework. Here, we extend GSS by relaxing the fixed underlying tree topology assumption. To this purpose, we introduce a “working” distribution on the space of genealogies, which enables estimating marginal likelihoods while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. We propose two different “working” distributions that help GSS to outperform PS and SS in terms of accuracy when comparing demographic and evolutionary models applied to synthetic data and real-world examples. Further, we show that the use of very diffuse priors can lead to a considerable overestimation in marginal likelihood when using PS and SS, while still retrieving the correct marginal likelihood using both GSS approaches. The methods used in this article are available in BEAST, a powerful user-friendly software package to perform Bayesian evolutionary analyses. PMID:26526428

Bayesian reconstruction of the evolutionary history and cross-species transition of variola virus and orthopoxviruses.

PubMed

Zehender, Gianguglielmo; Lai, Alessia; Veo, Carla; Bergna, Annalisa; Ciccozzi, Massimo; Galli, Massimo

2018-06-01

Variola virus (VARV), the causative agent of smallpox, is an exclusively human virus belonging to the genus Orthopoxvirus, which includes many other viral species covering a wide range of mammal hosts, such as vaccinia, cowpox, camelpox, taterapox, ectromelia, and monkeypox virus. The tempo and mode of evolution of Orthopoxviruses were reconstructed using a Bayesian phylodynamic framework by analysing 80 hemagglutinin sequences retrieved from public databases. Bayesian phylogeography was used to estimate their putative ancestral hosts. In order to estimate the substitution rate, the tree including all of the available Orthopoxviruses was calibrated using historical references dating the South American variola minor clade (alastrim) to between the XVI and XIX century. The mean substitution rate determined by the analysis was 6.5 × 10 -6 substitutions/site/year. Based on this evolutionary estimate, the time of the most recent common ancestor of the genus Orthopoxvirus was placed at about 10 000 years before the present. Cowpox virus was the species closest to the root of the phylogenetic tree. The root of VARV circulating in the XX century was estimated to be about 700 years ago, corresponding to about 1300 AD. The divergence between West African and South American VARV went back about 500 years ago (falling approximately in the XVI century). A rodent species is the most probable ancestral host from which the ancestors of all the known Orthopoxviruses were transmitted to the other mammal host species, and each of these species represented a dead-end for each new poxvirus species, without any further inter-specific spread. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Evaluating the Impact of Genomic Data and Priors on Bayesian Estimates of the Angiosperm Evolutionary Timescale.

PubMed

Foster, Charles S P; Sauquet, Hervê; van der Merwe, Marlien; McPherson, Hannah; Rossetto, Maurizio; Ho, Simon Y W

2017-05-01

The evolutionary timescale of angiosperms has long been a key question in biology. Molecular estimates of this timescale have shown considerable variation, being influenced by differences in taxon sampling, gene sampling, fossil calibrations, evolutionary models, and choices of priors. Here, we analyze a data set comprising 76 protein-coding genes from the chloroplast genomes of 195 taxa spanning 86 families, including novel genome sequences for 11 taxa, to evaluate the impact of models, priors, and gene sampling on Bayesian estimates of the angiosperm evolutionary timescale. Using a Bayesian relaxed molecular-clock method, with a core set of 35 minimum and two maximum fossil constraints, we estimated that crown angiosperms arose 221 (251-192) Ma during the Triassic. Based on a range of additional sensitivity and subsampling analyses, we found that our date estimates were generally robust to large changes in the parameters of the birth-death tree prior and of the model of rate variation across branches. We found an exception to this when we implemented fossil calibrations in the form of highly informative gamma priors rather than as uniform priors on node ages. Under all other calibration schemes, including trials of seven maximum age constraints, we consistently found that the earliest divergences of angiosperm clades substantially predate the oldest fossils that can be assigned unequivocally to their crown group. Overall, our results and experiments with genome-scale data suggest that reliable estimates of the angiosperm crown age will require increased taxon sampling, significant methodological changes, and new information from the fossil record. [Angiospermae, chloroplast, genome, molecular dating, Triassic.]. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The evolution of virulence in primate malaria parasites based on Bayesian reconstructions of ancestral states.

PubMed

Garamszegi, László Zsolt

2011-02-01

Plasmodium parasites, the causative agents of malaria, are generally considered as harmful parasites, but many of them cause mild symptoms. Little is known about the evolutionary history and phylogenetic constraints that generate this interspecific variation in virulence due to uncertainties about the phylogenetic associations of parasites. Here, to account for such phylogenetic uncertainty, phylogenetic methods based on Bayesian statistics were followed in combination with sequence data from five genes to estimate the ancestral state of virulence in primate Plasmodium parasites. When recent parasites were categorised according to the damage caused to the host, Bayesian estimates of ancestral states indicated that the acquisition of a harmful host exploitation strategy is more likely to be a recent evolutionary event than a result of an ancient change in a character state altering virulence. On the contrary, there was more evidence for moderate host exploitation having a deep origin along the phylogenetic tree. Moreover, the evolution of host severity is determined by the phylogenetic relationships of parasites, as severity gains did not appear randomly on the evolutionary tree. Such phylogenetic constraints can be mediated by the acquisition of virulence genes. As the impact of a parasite on a host is the result of both the parasite's investment in reproduction and host sensitivity, virulence was also estimated by calculating peak parasitemia after eliminating host effects. A directional random-walk evolutionary model showed that the ancestral primate malarias reproduced at very low parasitemia in their hosts. Consequently, the extreme variation in the outcome of malaria infection in different host species can be better understood in light of the phylogeny of parasites. Copyright © 2010 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cross-validation to select Bayesian hierarchical models in phylogenetics.

PubMed

Duchêne, Sebastián; Duchêne, David A; Di Giallonardo, Francesca; Eden, John-Sebastian; Geoghegan, Jemma L; Holt, Kathryn E; Ho, Simon Y W; Holmes, Edward C

2016-05-26

Recent developments in Bayesian phylogenetic models have increased the range of inferences that can be drawn from molecular sequence data. Accordingly, model selection has become an important component of phylogenetic analysis. Methods of model selection generally consider the likelihood of the data under the model in question. In the context of Bayesian phylogenetics, the most common approach involves estimating the marginal likelihood, which is typically done by integrating the likelihood across model parameters, weighted by the prior. Although this method is accurate, it is sensitive to the presence of improper priors. We explored an alternative approach based on cross-validation that is widely used in evolutionary analysis. This involves comparing models according to their predictive performance. We analysed simulated data and a range of viral and bacterial data sets using a cross-validation approach to compare a variety of molecular clock and demographic models. Our results show that cross-validation can be effective in distinguishing between strict- and relaxed-clock models and in identifying demographic models that allow growth in population size over time. In most of our empirical data analyses, the model selected using cross-validation was able to match that selected using marginal-likelihood estimation. The accuracy of cross-validation appears to improve with longer sequence data, particularly when distinguishing between relaxed-clock models. Cross-validation is a useful method for Bayesian phylogenetic model selection. This method can be readily implemented even when considering complex models where selecting an appropriate prior for all parameters may be difficult.

Effective Online Bayesian Phylogenetics via Sequential Monte Carlo with Guided Proposals

PubMed Central

Fourment, Mathieu; Claywell, Brian C; Dinh, Vu; McCoy, Connor; Matsen IV, Frederick A; Darling, Aaron E

2018-01-01

Abstract Modern infectious disease outbreak surveillance produces continuous streams of sequence data which require phylogenetic analysis as data arrives. Current software packages for Bayesian phylogenetic inference are unable to quickly incorporate new sequences as they become available, making them less useful for dynamically unfolding evolutionary stories. This limitation can be addressed by applying a class of Bayesian statistical inference algorithms called sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) to conduct online inference, wherein new data can be continuously incorporated to update the estimate of the posterior probability distribution. In this article, we describe and evaluate several different online phylogenetic sequential Monte Carlo (OPSMC) algorithms. We show that proposing new phylogenies with a density similar to the Bayesian prior suffers from poor performance, and we develop “guided” proposals that better match the proposal density to the posterior. Furthermore, we show that the simplest guided proposals can exhibit pathological behavior in some situations, leading to poor results, and that the situation can be resolved by heating the proposal density. The results demonstrate that relative to the widely used MCMC-based algorithm implemented in MrBayes, the total time required to compute a series of phylogenetic posteriors as sequences arrive can be significantly reduced by the use of OPSMC, without incurring a significant loss in accuracy. PMID:29186587

SpreaD3: Interactive Visualization of Spatiotemporal History and Trait Evolutionary Processes.

PubMed

Bielejec, Filip; Baele, Guy; Vrancken, Bram; Suchard, Marc A; Rambaut, Andrew; Lemey, Philippe

2016-08-01

Model-based phylogenetic reconstructions increasingly consider spatial or phenotypic traits in conjunction with sequence data to study evolutionary processes. Alongside parameter estimation, visualization of ancestral reconstructions represents an integral part of these analyses. Here, we present a complete overhaul of the spatial phylogenetic reconstruction of evolutionary dynamics software, now called SpreaD3 to emphasize the use of data-driven documents, as an analysis and visualization package that primarily complements Bayesian inference in BEAST (http://beast.bio.ed.ac.uk, last accessed 9 May 2016). The integration of JavaScript D3 libraries (www.d3.org, last accessed 9 May 2016) offers novel interactive web-based visualization capacities that are not restricted to spatial traits and extend to any discrete or continuously valued trait for any organism of interest. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Revisiting the origin and diversification of vascular plants through a comprehensive Bayesian analysis of the fossil record.

PubMed

Silvestro, Daniele; Cascales-Miñana, Borja; Bacon, Christine D; Antonelli, Alexandre

2015-07-01

Plants have a long evolutionary history, during which mass extinction events dramatically affected Earth's ecosystems and its biodiversity. The fossil record can shed light on the diversification dynamics of plant life and reveal how changes in the origination-extinction balance have contributed to shaping the current flora. We use a novel Bayesian approach to estimate origination and extinction rates in plants throughout their history. We focus on the effect of the 'Big Five' mass extinctions and on estimating the timing of origin of vascular plants, seed plants and angiosperms. Our analyses show that plant diversification is characterized by several shifts in origination and extinction rates, often matching the most important geological boundaries. The estimated origin of major plant clades predates the oldest macrofossils when considering the uncertainties associated with the fossil record and the preservation process. Our findings show that the commonly recognized mass extinctions have affected each plant group differently and that phases of high extinction often coincided with major floral turnovers. For instance, after the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary we infer negligible shifts in diversification of nonflowering seed plants, but find significantly decreased extinction in spore-bearing plants and increased origination rates in angiosperms, contributing to their current ecological and evolutionary dominance. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Inferring population history with DIY ABC: a user-friendly approach to approximate Bayesian computation

PubMed Central

Cornuet, Jean-Marie; Santos, Filipe; Beaumont, Mark A.; Robert, Christian P.; Marin, Jean-Michel; Balding, David J.; Guillemaud, Thomas; Estoup, Arnaud

2008-01-01

Summary: Genetic data obtained on population samples convey information about their evolutionary history. Inference methods can extract part of this information but they require sophisticated statistical techniques that have been made available to the biologist community (through computer programs) only for simple and standard situations typically involving a small number of samples. We propose here a computer program (DIY ABC) for inference based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), in which scenarios can be customized by the user to fit many complex situations involving any number of populations and samples. Such scenarios involve any combination of population divergences, admixtures and population size changes. DIY ABC can be used to compare competing scenarios, estimate parameters for one or more scenarios and compute bias and precision measures for a given scenario and known values of parameters (the current version applies to unlinked microsatellite data). This article describes key methods used in the program and provides its main features. The analysis of one simulated and one real dataset, both with complex evolutionary scenarios, illustrates the main possibilities of DIY ABC. Availability: The software DIY ABC is freely available at http://www.montpellier.inra.fr/CBGP/diyabc. Contact: j.cornuet@imperial.ac.uk Supplementary information: Supplementary data are also available at http://www.montpellier.inra.fr/CBGP/diyabc PMID:18842597

Short communication: phylodynamics analysis of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 envelope gene in mother and child pairs.

PubMed

Santos, Luciane Amorim; Gray, Rebecca R; Monteiro-Cunha, Joana Paixão; Strazza, Evandra; Kashima, Simone; Santos, Edson de Souza; Araújo, Thessika Hialla Almeida; Gonçalves, Marilda de Souza; Salemi, Marco; Alcantara, Luiz Carlos Junior

2015-09-01

Characterizing the impact of HIV transmission routes on viral genetic diversity can improve the understanding of the mechanisms of virus evolution and adaptation. HIV vertical transmission can occur in utero, during delivery, or while breastfeeding. The present study investigated the phylodynamics of the HIV-1 env gene in mother-to-child transmission by analyzing one chronically infected pair from Brazil and three acutely infected pairs from Zambia, with three to five time points. Sequences from 25 clones from each sample were obtained and aligned using Clustal X. ML trees were constructed in PhyML using the best evolutionary model. Bayesian analyses testing the relaxed and strict molecular clock were performed using BEAST and a Bayesian Skyline Plot (BSP) was construed. The genetic variability of previously described epitopes was investigated and compared between each individual time point and between mother and child sequences. The relaxed molecular clock was the best-fitted model for all datasets. The tree topologies did not show differentiation in the evolutionary dynamics of the virus circulating in the mother from the viral population in the child. In the BSP, the effective population size was more constant in time in the chronically infected patients while in the acute patients it was possible to detect bottlenecks. The genetic variability within viral epitopes recognized by the human immune system was considerably higher among the chronically infected pair in comparison with acutely infected pairs. These results contribute to a better understanding of HIV-1 evolutionary dynamics in mother-to-child transmission.

Bayesian estimation and use of high-throughput remote sensing indices for quantitative genetic analyses of leaf growth.

PubMed

Baker, Robert L; Leong, Wen Fung; An, Nan; Brock, Marcus T; Rubin, Matthew J; Welch, Stephen; Weinig, Cynthia

2018-02-01

We develop Bayesian function-valued trait models that mathematically isolate genetic mechanisms underlying leaf growth trajectories by factoring out genotype-specific differences in photosynthesis. Remote sensing data can be used instead of leaf-level physiological measurements. Characterizing the genetic basis of traits that vary during ontogeny and affect plant performance is a major goal in evolutionary biology and agronomy. Describing genetic programs that specifically regulate morphological traits can be complicated by genotypic differences in physiological traits. We describe the growth trajectories of leaves using novel Bayesian function-valued trait (FVT) modeling approaches in Brassica rapa recombinant inbred lines raised in heterogeneous field settings. While frequentist approaches estimate parameter values by treating each experimental replicate discretely, Bayesian models can utilize information in the global dataset, potentially leading to more robust trait estimation. We illustrate this principle by estimating growth asymptotes in the face of missing data and comparing heritabilities of growth trajectory parameters estimated by Bayesian and frequentist approaches. Using pseudo-Bayes factors, we compare the performance of an initial Bayesian logistic growth model and a model that incorporates carbon assimilation (A max ) as a cofactor, thus statistically accounting for genotypic differences in carbon resources. We further evaluate two remotely sensed spectroradiometric indices, photochemical reflectance (pri2) and MERIS Terrestrial Chlorophyll Index (mtci) as covariates in lieu of A max , because these two indices were genetically correlated with A max across years and treatments yet allow much higher throughput compared to direct leaf-level gas-exchange measurements. For leaf lengths in uncrowded settings, including A max improves model fit over the initial model. The mtci and pri2 indices also outperform direct A max measurements. Of particular importance for evolutionary biologists and plant breeders, hierarchical Bayesian models estimating FVT parameters improve heritabilities compared to frequentist approaches.

Rapid molecular evolution of human bocavirus revealed by Bayesian coalescent inference.

PubMed

Zehender, Gianguglielmo; De Maddalena, Chiara; Canuti, Marta; Zappa, Alessandra; Amendola, Antonella; Lai, Alessia; Galli, Massimo; Tanzi, Elisabetta

2010-03-01

Human bocavirus (HBoV) is a linear single-stranded DNA virus belonging to the Parvoviridae family that has recently been isolated from the upper respiratory tract of children with acute respiratory infection. All of the strains observed so far segregate into two genotypes (1 and 2) with a low level of polymorphism. Given the recent description of the infection and the lack of epidemiological and molecular data, we estimated the virus's rates of molecular evolution and population dynamics. A dataset of forty-nine dated VP2 sequences, including also eight new isolates obtained from pharyngeal swabs of Italian patients with acute respiratory tract infections, was submitted to phylogenetic analysis. The model parameters, evolutionary rates and population dynamics were co-estimated using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach, and site-specific positive and negative selection was also investigated. Recombination was investigated by seven different methods and one suspected recombinant strain was excluded from further analysis. The estimated mean evolutionary rate of HBoV was 8.6x10(-4)subs/site/year, and that of the 1st+2nd codon positions was more than 15 times less than that of the 3rd codon position. Viral population dynamics analysis revealed that the two known genotypes diverged recently (mean tMRCA: 24 years), and that the epidemic due to HBoV genotype 2 grew exponentially at a rate of 1.01year(-1). Selection analysis of the partial VP2 showed that 8.5% of sites were under significant negative pressure and the absence of positive selection. Our results show that, like other parvoviruses, HBoV is characterised by a rapid evolution. The low level of polymorphism is probably due to a relatively recent divergence between the circulating genotypes and strong purifying selection acting on viral antigens.

Molecular species delimitation methods recover most song-delimited cicada species in the European Cicadetta montana complex.

PubMed

Wade, E J; Hertach, T; Gogala, M; Trilar, T; Simon, C

2015-12-01

Molecular species delimitation is increasingly being used to discover and illuminate species level diversity, and a number of methods have been developed. Here, we compare the ability of two molecular species delimitation methods to recover song-delimited species in the Cicadetta montana cryptic species complex throughout Europe. Recent bioacoustics studies of male calling songs (premating reproductive barriers) have revealed cryptic species diversity in this complex. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses were used to analyse the mitochondrial genes COI and COII and the nuclear genes EF1α and period for thirteen European Cicadetta species as well as the closely related monotypic genus Euboeana. Two molecular species delimitation methods, general mixed Yule-coalescent (GMYC) and Bayesian phylogenetics and phylogeography, identified the majority of song-delimited species and were largely congruent with each other. None of the molecular delimitation methods were able to fully recover a recent radiation of four Greek species. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

An improved approximate-Bayesian model-choice method for estimating shared evolutionary history

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background To understand biological diversification, it is important to account for large-scale processes that affect the evolutionary history of groups of co-distributed populations of organisms. Such events predict temporally clustered divergences times, a pattern that can be estimated using genetic data from co-distributed species. I introduce a new approximate-Bayesian method for comparative phylogeographical model-choice that estimates the temporal distribution of divergences across taxa from multi-locus DNA sequence data. The model is an extension of that implemented in msBayes. Results By reparameterizing the model, introducing more flexible priors on demographic and divergence-time parameters, and implementing a non-parametric Dirichlet-process prior over divergence models, I improved the robustness, accuracy, and power of the method for estimating shared evolutionary history across taxa. Conclusions The results demonstrate the improved performance of the new method is due to (1) more appropriate priors on divergence-time and demographic parameters that avoid prohibitively small marginal likelihoods for models with more divergence events, and (2) the Dirichlet-process providing a flexible prior on divergence histories that does not strongly disfavor models with intermediate numbers of divergence events. The new method yields more robust estimates of posterior uncertainty, and thus greatly reduces the tendency to incorrectly estimate models of shared evolutionary history with strong support. PMID:24992937

Divergent evolutionary processes associated with colonization of offshore islands.

PubMed

Martínková, Natália; Barnett, Ross; Cucchi, Thomas; Struchen, Rahel; Pascal, Marine; Pascal, Michel; Fischer, Martin C; Higham, Thomas; Brace, Selina; Ho, Simon Y W; Quéré, Jean-Pierre; O'Higgins, Paul; Excoffier, Laurent; Heckel, Gerald; Hoelzel, A Rus; Dobney, Keith M; Searle, Jeremy B

2013-10-01

Oceanic islands have been a test ground for evolutionary theory, but here, we focus on the possibilities for evolutionary study created by offshore islands. These can be colonized through various means and by a wide range of species, including those with low dispersal capabilities. We use morphology, modern and ancient sequences of cytochrome b (cytb) and microsatellite genotypes to examine colonization history and evolutionary change associated with occupation of the Orkney archipelago by the common vole (Microtus arvalis), a species found in continental Europe but not in Britain. Among possible colonization scenarios, our results are most consistent with human introduction at least 5100 bp (confirmed by radiocarbon dating). We used approximate Bayesian computation of population history to infer the coast of Belgium as the possible source and estimated the evolutionary timescale using a Bayesian coalescent approach. We showed substantial morphological divergence of the island populations, including a size increase presumably driven by selection and reduced microsatellite variation likely reflecting founder events and genetic drift. More surprisingly, our results suggest that a recent and widespread cytb replacement event in the continental source area purged cytb variation there, whereas the ancestral diversity is largely retained in the colonized islands as a genetic 'ark'. The replacement event in the continental M. arvalis was probably triggered by anthropogenic causes (land-use change). Our studies illustrate that small offshore islands can act as field laboratories for studying various evolutionary processes over relatively short timescales, informing about the mainland source area as well as the island. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Phylogenetic Factor Analysis.

PubMed

Tolkoff, Max R; Alfaro, Michael E; Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Suchard, Marc A

2018-05-01

Phylogenetic comparative methods explore the relationships between quantitative traits adjusting for shared evolutionary history. This adjustment often occurs through a Brownian diffusion process along the branches of the phylogeny that generates model residuals or the traits themselves. For high-dimensional traits, inferring all pair-wise correlations within the multivariate diffusion is limiting. To circumvent this problem, we propose phylogenetic factor analysis (PFA) that assumes a small unknown number of independent evolutionary factors arise along the phylogeny and these factors generate clusters of dependent traits. Set in a Bayesian framework, PFA provides measures of uncertainty on the factor number and groupings, combines both continuous and discrete traits, integrates over missing measurements and incorporates phylogenetic uncertainty with the help of molecular sequences. We develop Gibbs samplers based on dynamic programming to estimate the PFA posterior distribution, over 3-fold faster than for multivariate diffusion and a further order-of-magnitude more efficiently in the presence of latent traits. We further propose a novel marginal likelihood estimator for previously impractical models with discrete data and find that PFA also provides a better fit than multivariate diffusion in evolutionary questions in columbine flower development, placental reproduction transitions and triggerfish fin morphometry.

Genomic Analysis of Hepatitis B Virus Reveals Antigen State and Genotype as Sources of Evolutionary Rate Variation

PubMed Central

Harrison, Abby; Lemey, Philippe; Hurles, Matthew; Moyes, Chris; Horn, Susanne; Pryor, Jan; Malani, Joji; Supuri, Mathias; Masta, Andrew; Teriboriki, Burentau; Toatu, Tebuka; Penny, David; Rambaut, Andrew; Shapiro, Beth

2011-01-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) genomes are small, semi-double-stranded DNA circular genomes that contain alternating overlapping reading frames and replicate through an RNA intermediary phase. This complex biology has presented a challenge to estimating an evolutionary rate for HBV, leading to difficulties resolving the evolutionary and epidemiological history of the virus. Here, we re-examine rates of HBV evolution using a novel data set of 112 within-host, transmission history (pedigree) and among-host genomes isolated over 20 years from the indigenous peoples of the South Pacific, combined with 313 previously published HBV genomes. We employ Bayesian phylogenetic approaches to examine several potential causes and consequences of evolutionary rate variation in HBV. Our results reveal rate variation both between genotypes and across the genome, as well as strikingly slower rates when genomes are sampled in the Hepatitis B e antigen positive state, compared to the e antigen negative state. This Hepatitis B e antigen rate variation was found to be largely attributable to changes during the course of infection in the preCore and Core genes and their regulatory elements. PMID:21765983

Detailed phylogenetic analysis of primate T-lymphotropic virus type 1 (PTLV-1) sequences from orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus) reveals new insights into the evolutionary history of PTLV-1 in Asia.

PubMed

Reid, Michael J C; Switzer, William M; Schillaci, Michael A; Ragonnet-Cronin, Manon; Joanisse, Isabelle; Caminiti, Kyna; Lowenberger, Carl A; Galdikas, Birute Mary F; Sandstrom, Paul A; Brooks, James I

2016-09-01

While human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1) originates from ancient cross-species transmission of simian T-lymphotropic virus type 1 (STLV-1) from infected nonhuman primates, much debate exists on whether the first HTLV-1 occurred in Africa, or in Asia during early human evolution and migration. This topic is complicated by a lack of representative Asian STLV-1 to infer PTLV-1 evolutionary histories. In this study we obtained new STLV-1 LTR and tax sequences from a wild-born Bornean orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus) and performed detailed phylogenetic analyses using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference of available Asian PTLV-1 and African STLV-1 sequences. Phylogenies, divergence dates and nucleotide substitution rates were co-inferred and compared using six different molecular clock calibrations in a Bayesian framework, including both archaeological and/or nucleotide substitution rate calibrations. We then combined our molecular results with paleobiogeographical and ecological data to infer the most likely evolutionary history of PTLV-1. Based on the preferred models our analyses robustly inferred an Asian source for PTLV-1 with cross-species transmission of STLV-1 likely from a macaque (Macaca sp.) to an orangutan about 37.9-48.9kya, and to humans between 20.3-25.5kya. An orangutan diversification of STLV-1 commenced approximately 6.4-7.3kya. Our analyses also inferred that HTLV-1 was first introduced into Australia ~3.1-3.7kya, corresponding to both genetic and archaeological changes occurring in Australia at that time. Finally, HTLV-1 appears in Melanesia at ~2.3-2.7kya corresponding to the migration of the Lapita peoples into the region. Our results also provide an important future reference for calibrating information essential for PTLV evolutionary timescale inference. Longer sequence data, or full genomes from a greater representation of Asian primates, including gibbons, leaf monkeys, and Sumatran orangutans are needed to fully elucidate these evolutionary dates and relationships using the model criteria suggested herein. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary history and dynamics of dog rabies virus in western and central Africa.

PubMed

Talbi, Chiraz; Holmes, Edward C; de Benedictis, Paola; Faye, Ousmane; Nakouné, Emmanuel; Gamatié, Djibo; Diarra, Abass; Elmamy, Bezeid Ould; Sow, Adama; Adjogoua, Edgard Valery; Sangare, Oumou; Dundon, William G; Capua, Ilaria; Sall, Amadou A; Bourhy, Hervé

2009-04-01

The burden of rabies in Africa is estimated at 24,000 human deaths year(-1), almost all of which result from infection with dog rabies viruses (RABV). To investigate the evolutionary dynamics of RABV in western and central Africa, 92 isolates sampled from 27 African countries over 29 years were collected and sequenced. This revealed that RABV currently circulating in dogs in this region fell into a single lineage designated 'Africa 2'. A detailed analysis of the phylogeographical structure of this Africa 2 lineage revealed strong population subdivision at the country level, with only limited movement of virus among localities, including a possible east-to-west spread across Africa. In addition, Bayesian coalescent analysis suggested that the Africa 2 lineage was introduced into this region of Africa only recently (probably <200 years ago), in accordance with the timescale of expanding European colonial influence and urbanization, and then spread relatively slowly, perhaps occupying the entire region in a 100 year period.

Approximate likelihood calculation on a phylogeny for Bayesian estimation of divergence times.

PubMed

dos Reis, Mario; Yang, Ziheng

2011-07-01

The molecular clock provides a powerful way to estimate species divergence times. If information on some species divergence times is available from the fossil or geological record, it can be used to calibrate a phylogeny and estimate divergence times for all nodes in the tree. The Bayesian method provides a natural framework to incorporate different sources of information concerning divergence times, such as information in the fossil and molecular data. Current models of sequence evolution are intractable in a Bayesian setting, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to generate the posterior distribution of divergence times and evolutionary rates. This method is computationally expensive, as it involves the repeated calculation of the likelihood function. Here, we explore the use of Taylor expansion to approximate the likelihood during MCMC iteration. The approximation is much faster than conventional likelihood calculation. However, the approximation is expected to be poor when the proposed parameters are far from the likelihood peak. We explore the use of parameter transforms (square root, logarithm, and arcsine) to improve the approximation to the likelihood curve. We found that the new methods, particularly the arcsine-based transform, provided very good approximations under relaxed clock models and also under the global clock model when the global clock is not seriously violated. The approximation is poorer for analysis under the global clock when the global clock is seriously wrong and should thus not be used. The results suggest that the approximate method may be useful for Bayesian dating analysis using large data sets.

Bayesian inference of a historical bottleneck in a heavily exploited marine mammal.

PubMed

Hoffman, J I; Grant, S M; Forcada, J; Phillips, C D

2011-10-01

Emerging Bayesian analytical approaches offer increasingly sophisticated means of reconstructing historical population dynamics from genetic data, but have been little applied to scenarios involving demographic bottlenecks. Consequently, we analysed a large mitochondrial and microsatellite dataset from the Antarctic fur seal Arctocephalus gazella, a species subjected to one of the most extreme examples of uncontrolled exploitation in history when it was reduced to the brink of extinction by the sealing industry during the late eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Classical bottleneck tests, which exploit the fact that rare alleles are rapidly lost during demographic reduction, yielded ambiguous results. In contrast, a strong signal of recent demographic decline was detected using both Bayesian skyline plots and Approximate Bayesian Computation, the latter also allowing derivation of posterior parameter estimates that were remarkably consistent with historical observations. This was achieved using only contemporary samples, further emphasizing the potential of Bayesian approaches to address important problems in conservation and evolutionary biology. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Tutorial: Asteroseismic Data Analysis with DIAMONDS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corsaro, Enrico

Since the advent of the space-based photometric missions such as CoRoT and NASA's Kepler, asteroseismology has acquired a central role in our understanding about stellar physics. The Kepler spacecraft, especially, is still releasing excellent photometric observations that contain a large amount of information not yet investigated. For exploiting the full potential of these data, sophisticated and robust analysis tools are now essential, so that further constraining of stellar structure and evolutionary models can be obtained. In addition, extracting detailed asteroseismic properties for many stars can yield new insights on their correlations to fundamental stellar properties and dynamics. After a brief introduction to the Bayesian notion of probability, I describe the code Diamonds for Bayesian parameter estimation and model comparison by means of the nested sampling Monte Carlo (NSMC) algorithm. NSMC constitutes an efficient and powerful method, in replacement to standard Markov chain Monte Carlo, very suitable for high-dimensional and multimodal problems that are typical of detailed asteroseismic analyses, such as the fitting and mode identification of individual oscillation modes in stars (known as peak-bagging). Diamonds is able to provide robust results for statistical inferences involving tens of individual oscillation modes, while at the same time preserving a considerable computational efficiency for identifying the solution. In the tutorial, I will present the fitting of the stellar background signal and the peak-bagging analysis of the oscillation modes in a red-giant star, providing an example to use Bayesian evidence for assessing the peak significance of the fitted oscillation peaks.

Molecular insights into the historic demography of bowhead whales: understanding the evolutionary basis of contemporary management practices

PubMed Central

Phillips, C D; Hoffman, J I; George, J C; Suydam, R S; Huebinger, R M; Patton, J C; Bickham, J W

2013-01-01

Patterns of genetic variation observed within species reflect evolutionary histories that include signatures of past demography. Understanding the demographic component of species' history is fundamental to informed management because changes in effective population size affect response to environmental change and evolvability, the strength of genetic drift, and maintenance of genetic variability. Species experiencing anthropogenic population reductions provide valuable case studies for understanding the genetic response to demographic change because historic changes in the census size are often well documented. A classic example is the bowhead whale, Balaena mysticetus, which experienced dramatic population depletion due to commercial whaling in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Consequently, we analyzed a large multi-marker dataset of bowhead whales using a variety of analytical methods, including extended Bayesian skyline analysis and approximate Bayesian computation, to characterize genetic signatures of both ancient and contemporary demographic histories. No genetic signature of recent population depletion was recovered through any analysis incorporating realistic mutation assumptions, probably due to the combined influences of long generation time, short bottleneck duration, and the magnitude of population depletion. In contrast, a robust signal of population expansion was detected around 70,000 years ago, followed by a population decline around 15,000 years ago. The timing of these events coincides to a historic glacial period and the onset of warming at the end of the last glacial maximum, respectively. By implication, climate driven long-term variation in Arctic Ocean productivity, rather than recent anthropogenic disturbance, appears to have been the primary driver of historic bowhead whale demography. PMID:23403722

Phenotypic landscape inference reveals multiple evolutionary paths to C4 photosynthesis

PubMed Central

Williams, Ben P; Johnston, Iain G; Covshoff, Sarah; Hibberd, Julian M

2013-01-01

C4 photosynthesis has independently evolved from the ancestral C3 pathway in at least 60 plant lineages, but, as with other complex traits, how it evolved is unclear. Here we show that the polyphyletic appearance of C4 photosynthesis is associated with diverse and flexible evolutionary paths that group into four major trajectories. We conducted a meta-analysis of 18 lineages containing species that use C3, C4, or intermediate C3–C4 forms of photosynthesis to parameterise a 16-dimensional phenotypic landscape. We then developed and experimentally verified a novel Bayesian approach based on a hidden Markov model that predicts how the C4 phenotype evolved. The alternative evolutionary histories underlying the appearance of C4 photosynthesis were determined by ancestral lineage and initial phenotypic alterations unrelated to photosynthesis. We conclude that the order of C4 trait acquisition is flexible and driven by non-photosynthetic drivers. This flexibility will have facilitated the convergent evolution of this complex trait. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00961.001 PMID:24082995

Identification of a current hot spot of HIV type 1 transmission in Mongolia by molecular epidemiological analysis.

PubMed

Davaalkham, Jagdagsuren; Unenchimeg, Puntsag; Baigalmaa, Chultem; Erdenetuya, Gombo; Nyamkhuu, Dulmaa; Shiino, Teiichiro; Tsuchiya, Kiyoto; Hayashida, Tsunefusa; Gatanaga, Hiroyuki; Oka, Shinichi

2011-10-01

We investigated the current molecular epidemiological status of HIV-1 in Mongolia, a country with very low incidence of HIV-1 though with rapid expansion in recent years. HIV-1 pol (1065 nt) and env (447 nt) genes were sequenced to construct phylogenetic trees. The evolutionary rates, molecular clock phylogenies, and other evolutionary parameters were estimated from heterochronous genomic sequences of HIV-1 subtype B by the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We obtained 41 sera from 56 reported HIV-1-positive cases as of May 2009. The main route of infection was men who have sex with men (MSM). Dominant subtypes were subtype B in 32 cases (78%) followed by subtype CRF02_AG (9.8%). The phylogenetic analysis of the pol gene identified two clusters in subtype B sequences. Cluster 1 consisted of 21 cases including MSM and other routes of infection, and cluster 2 consisted of eight MSM cases. The tree analyses demonstrated very short branch lengths in cluster 1, suggesting a surprisingly active expansion of HIV-1 transmission during a short period with the same ancestor virus. Evolutionary analysis indicated that the outbreak started around the early 2000s. This study identified a current hot spot of HIV-1 transmission and potential seed of the epidemic in Mongolia. Comprehensive preventive measures targeting this group are urgently needed.

BAYESIAN PROTEIN STRUCTURE ALIGNMENT.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Abel; Schmidler, Scott C

The analysis of the three-dimensional structure of proteins is an important topic in molecular biochemistry. Structure plays a critical role in defining the function of proteins and is more strongly conserved than amino acid sequence over evolutionary timescales. A key challenge is the identification and evaluation of structural similarity between proteins; such analysis can aid in understanding the role of newly discovered proteins and help elucidate evolutionary relationships between organisms. Computational biologists have developed many clever algorithmic techniques for comparing protein structures, however, all are based on heuristic optimization criteria, making statistical interpretation somewhat difficult. Here we present a fully probabilistic framework for pairwise structural alignment of proteins. Our approach has several advantages, including the ability to capture alignment uncertainty and to estimate key "gap" parameters which critically affect the quality of the alignment. We show that several existing alignment methods arise as maximum a posteriori estimates under specific choices of prior distributions and error models. Our probabilistic framework is also easily extended to incorporate additional information, which we demonstrate by including primary sequence information to generate simultaneous sequence-structure alignments that can resolve ambiguities obtained using structure alone. This combined model also provides a natural approach for the difficult task of estimating evolutionary distance based on structural alignments. The model is illustrated by comparison with well-established methods on several challenging protein alignment examples.

Morphological homoplasy, life history evolution, and historical biogeography of plethodontid salamanders inferred from complete mitochondrial genomes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mueller, Rachel Lockridge; Macey, J. Robert; Jaekel, Martin

2004-08-01

The evolutionary history of the largest salamander family (Plethodontidae) is characterized by extreme morphological homoplasy. Analysis of the mechanisms generating such homoplasy requires an independent, molecular phylogeny. To this end, we sequenced 24 complete mitochondrial genomes (22 plethodontids and two outgroup taxa), added data for three species from GenBank, and performed partitioned and unpartitioned Bayesian, ML, and MP phylogenetic analyses. We explored four dataset partitioning strategies to account for evolutionary process heterogeneity among genes and codon positions, all of which yielded increased model likelihoods and decreased numbers of supported nodes in the topologies (PP > 0.95) relative to the unpartitionedmore » analysis. Our phylogenetic analyses yielded congruent trees that contrast with the traditional morphology-based taxonomy; the monophyly of three out of four major groups is rejected. Reanalysis of current hypotheses in light of these new evolutionary relationships suggests that (1) a larval life history stage re-evolved from a direct-developing ancestor multiple times, (2) there is no phylogenetic support for the ''Out of Appalachia'' hypothesis of plethodontid origins, and (3) novel scenarios must be reconstructed for the convergent evolution of projectile tongues, reduction in toe number, and specialization for defensive tail loss. Some of these novel scenarios imply morphological transformation series that proceed in the opposite direction than was previously thought. In addition, they suggest surprising evolutionary lability in traits previously interpreted to be conservative.« less

Lithium and age of pre-main sequence stars: the case of Parenago 1802

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giarrusso, M.; Tognelli, E.; Catanzaro, G.; Degl'Innocenti, S.; Dell'Omodarme, M.; Lamia, L.; Leone, F.; Pizzone, R. G.; Prada Moroni, P. G.; Romano, S.; Spitaleri, C.

2016-04-01

With the aim to test the present capability of the stellar surface lithium abundance in providing an estimation for the age of PMS stars, we analyze the case of the detached, double-lined, eclipsing binary system PAR 1802. For this system, the lithium age has been compared with the theoretical one, as estimated by applying a Bayesian analysis method on a large grid of stellar evolutionary models. The models have been computed for several values of chemical composition and mixing length, by means of the code FRANEC updated with the Trojan Horse reaction rates involving lithium burning.

Analysis of Evolutionary Processes of Species Jump in Waterfowl Parvovirus

PubMed Central

Fan, Wentao; Sun, Zhaoyu; Shen, Tongtong; Xu, Danning; Huang, Kehe; Zhou, Jiyong; Song, Suquan; Yan, Liping

2017-01-01

Waterfowl parvoviruses are classified into goose parvovirus (GPV) and Muscovy duck parvovirus (MDPV) according to their antigenic features and host preferences. A novel duck parvovirus (NDPV), identified as a new variant of GPV, is currently infecting ducks, thus causing considerable economic loss. This study analyzed the molecular evolution and population dynamics of the emerging parvovirus capsid gene to investigate the evolutionary processes concerning the host shift of NDPV. Two important amino acids changes (Asn-489 and Asn-650) were identified in NDPV, which may be responsible for host shift of NDPV. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the currently circulating NDPV originated from the GPV lineage. The Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo tree indicated that the NDPV diverged from GPV approximately 20 years ago. Evolutionary rate analyses demonstrated that GPV evolved with 7.674 × 10-4 substitutions/site/year, and the data for MDPV was 5.237 × 10-4 substitutions/site/year, whereas the substitution rate in NDPV branch was 2.25 × 10-3 substitutions/site/year. Meanwhile, viral population dynamics analysis revealed that the GPV major clade, including NDPV, grew exponentially at a rate of 1.717 year-1. Selection pressure analysis showed that most sites are subject to strong purifying selection and no positively selected sites were found in NDPV. The unique immune-epitopes in waterfowl parvovirus were also estimated, which may be helpful for the prediction of antibody binding sites against NDPV in ducks. PMID:28352261

The phylogeny and evolutionary history of tyrannosauroid dinosaurs.

PubMed

Brusatte, Stephen L; Carr, Thomas D

2016-02-02

Tyrannosauroids--the group of carnivores including Tyrannosaurs rex--are some of the most familiar dinosaurs of all. A surge of recent discoveries has helped clarify some aspects of their evolution, but competing phylogenetic hypotheses raise questions about their relationships, biogeography, and fossil record quality. We present a new phylogenetic dataset, which merges published datasets and incorporates recently discovered taxa. We analyze it with parsimony and, for the first time for a tyrannosauroid dataset, Bayesian techniques. The parsimony and Bayesian results are highly congruent, and provide a framework for interpreting the biogeography and evolutionary history of tyrannosauroids. Our phylogenies illustrate that the body plan of the colossal species evolved piecemeal, imply no clear division between northern and southern species in western North America as had been argued, and suggest that T. rex may have been an Asian migrant to North America. Over-reliance on cranial shape characters may explain why published parsimony studies have diverged and filling three major gaps in the fossil record holds the most promise for future work.

The phylogeny and evolutionary history of tyrannosauroid dinosaurs

PubMed Central

Brusatte, Stephen L.; Carr, Thomas D.

2016-01-01

Tyrannosauroids—the group of carnivores including Tyrannosaurs rex—are some of the most familiar dinosaurs of all. A surge of recent discoveries has helped clarify some aspects of their evolution, but competing phylogenetic hypotheses raise questions about their relationships, biogeography, and fossil record quality. We present a new phylogenetic dataset, which merges published datasets and incorporates recently discovered taxa. We analyze it with parsimony and, for the first time for a tyrannosauroid dataset, Bayesian techniques. The parsimony and Bayesian results are highly congruent, and provide a framework for interpreting the biogeography and evolutionary history of tyrannosauroids. Our phylogenies illustrate that the body plan of the colossal species evolved piecemeal, imply no clear division between northern and southern species in western North America as had been argued, and suggest that T. rex may have been an Asian migrant to North America. Over-reliance on cranial shape characters may explain why published parsimony studies have diverged and filling three major gaps in the fossil record holds the most promise for future work. PMID:26830019

The phylogeny and evolutionary history of tyrannosauroid dinosaurs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brusatte, Stephen L.; Carr, Thomas D.

2016-02-01

Tyrannosauroids—the group of carnivores including Tyrannosaurs rex—are some of the most familiar dinosaurs of all. A surge of recent discoveries has helped clarify some aspects of their evolution, but competing phylogenetic hypotheses raise questions about their relationships, biogeography, and fossil record quality. We present a new phylogenetic dataset, which merges published datasets and incorporates recently discovered taxa. We analyze it with parsimony and, for the first time for a tyrannosauroid dataset, Bayesian techniques. The parsimony and Bayesian results are highly congruent, and provide a framework for interpreting the biogeography and evolutionary history of tyrannosauroids. Our phylogenies illustrate that the body plan of the colossal species evolved piecemeal, imply no clear division between northern and southern species in western North America as had been argued, and suggest that T. rex may have been an Asian migrant to North America. Over-reliance on cranial shape characters may explain why published parsimony studies have diverged and filling three major gaps in the fossil record holds the most promise for future work.

Taming the BEAST—A Community Teaching Material Resource for BEAST 2

PubMed Central

Barido-Sottani, Joëlle; Bošková, Veronika; Plessis, Louis Du; Kühnert, Denise; Magnus, Carsten; Mitov, Venelin; Müller, Nicola F.; PečErska, Jūlija; Rasmussen, David A.; Zhang, Chi; Drummond, Alexei J.; Heath, Tracy A.; Pybus, Oliver G.; Vaughan, Timothy G.; Stadler, Tanja

2018-01-01

Abstract Phylogenetics and phylodynamics are central topics in modern evolutionary biology. Phylogenetic methods reconstruct the evolutionary relationships among organisms, whereas phylodynamic approaches reveal the underlying diversification processes that lead to the observed relationships. These two fields have many practical applications in disciplines as diverse as epidemiology, developmental biology, palaeontology, ecology, and linguistics. The combination of increasingly large genetic data sets and increases in computing power is facilitating the development of more sophisticated phylogenetic and phylodynamic methods. Big data sets allow us to answer complex questions. However, since the required analyses are highly specific to the particular data set and question, a black-box method is not sufficient anymore. Instead, biologists are required to be actively involved with modeling decisions during data analysis. The modular design of the Bayesian phylogenetic software package BEAST 2 enables, and in fact enforces, this involvement. At the same time, the modular design enables computational biology groups to develop new methods at a rapid rate. A thorough understanding of the models and algorithms used by inference software is a critical prerequisite for successful hypothesis formulation and assessment. In particular, there is a need for more readily available resources aimed at helping interested scientists equip themselves with the skills to confidently use cutting-edge phylogenetic analysis software. These resources will also benefit researchers who do not have access to similar courses or training at their home institutions. Here, we introduce the “Taming the Beast” (https://taming-the-beast.github.io/) resource, which was developed as part of a workshop series bearing the same name, to facilitate the usage of the Bayesian phylogenetic software package BEAST 2. PMID:28673048

Structure and stability of genetic variance-covariance matrices: A Bayesian sparse factor analysis of transcriptional variation in the three-spined stickleback.

PubMed

Siren, J; Ovaskainen, O; Merilä, J

2017-10-01

The genetic variance-covariance matrix (G) is a quantity of central importance in evolutionary biology due to its influence on the rate and direction of multivariate evolution. However, the predictive power of empirically estimated G-matrices is limited for two reasons. First, phenotypes are high-dimensional, whereas traditional statistical methods are tuned to estimate and analyse low-dimensional matrices. Second, the stability of G to environmental effects and over time remains poorly understood. Using Bayesian sparse factor analysis (BSFG) designed to estimate high-dimensional G-matrices, we analysed levels variation and covariation in 10,527 expressed genes in a large (n = 563) half-sib breeding design of three-spined sticklebacks subject to two temperature treatments. We found significant differences in the structure of G between the treatments: heritabilities and evolvabilities were higher in the warm than in the low-temperature treatment, suggesting more and faster opportunity to evolve in warm (stressful) conditions. Furthermore, comparison of G and its phenotypic equivalent P revealed the latter is a poor substitute of the former. Most strikingly, the results suggest that the expected impact of G on evolvability-as well as the similarity among G-matrices-may depend strongly on the number of traits included into analyses. In our results, the inclusion of only few traits in the analyses leads to underestimation in the differences between the G-matrices and their predicted impacts on evolution. While the results highlight the challenges involved in estimating G, they also illustrate that by enabling the estimation of large G-matrices, the BSFG method can improve predicted evolutionary responses to selection. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Taming the BEAST-A Community Teaching Material Resource for BEAST 2.

PubMed

Barido-Sottani, Joëlle; Bošková, Veronika; Plessis, Louis Du; Kühnert, Denise; Magnus, Carsten; Mitov, Venelin; Müller, Nicola F; PecErska, Julija; Rasmussen, David A; Zhang, Chi; Drummond, Alexei J; Heath, Tracy A; Pybus, Oliver G; Vaughan, Timothy G; Stadler, Tanja

2018-01-01

Phylogenetics and phylodynamics are central topics in modern evolutionary biology. Phylogenetic methods reconstruct the evolutionary relationships among organisms, whereas phylodynamic approaches reveal the underlying diversification processes that lead to the observed relationships. These two fields have many practical applications in disciplines as diverse as epidemiology, developmental biology, palaeontology, ecology, and linguistics. The combination of increasingly large genetic data sets and increases in computing power is facilitating the development of more sophisticated phylogenetic and phylodynamic methods. Big data sets allow us to answer complex questions. However, since the required analyses are highly specific to the particular data set and question, a black-box method is not sufficient anymore. Instead, biologists are required to be actively involved with modeling decisions during data analysis. The modular design of the Bayesian phylogenetic software package BEAST 2 enables, and in fact enforces, this involvement. At the same time, the modular design enables computational biology groups to develop new methods at a rapid rate. A thorough understanding of the models and algorithms used by inference software is a critical prerequisite for successful hypothesis formulation and assessment. In particular, there is a need for more readily available resources aimed at helping interested scientists equip themselves with the skills to confidently use cutting-edge phylogenetic analysis software. These resources will also benefit researchers who do not have access to similar courses or training at their home institutions. Here, we introduce the "Taming the Beast" (https://taming-the-beast.github.io/) resource, which was developed as part of a workshop series bearing the same name, to facilitate the usage of the Bayesian phylogenetic software package BEAST 2. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

A dated molecular phylogeny of manta and devil rays (Mobulidae) based on mitogenome and nuclear sequences.

PubMed

Poortvliet, Marloes; Olsen, Jeanine L; Croll, Donald A; Bernardi, Giacomo; Newton, Kelly; Kollias, Spyros; O'Sullivan, John; Fernando, Daniel; Stevens, Guy; Galván Magaña, Felipe; Seret, Bernard; Wintner, Sabine; Hoarau, Galice

2015-02-01

Manta and devil rays are an iconic group of globally distributed pelagic filter feeders, yet their evolutionary history remains enigmatic. We employed next generation sequencing of mitogenomes for nine of the 11 recognized species and two outgroups; as well as additional Sanger sequencing of two mitochondrial and two nuclear genes in an extended taxon sampling set. Analysis of the mitogenome coding regions in a Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian framework provided a well-resolved phylogeny. The deepest divergences distinguished three clades with high support, one containing Manta birostris, Manta alfredi, Mobula tarapacana, Mobula japanica and Mobula mobular; one containing Mobula kuhlii, Mobula eregoodootenkee and Mobula thurstoni; and one containing Mobula munkiana, Mobula hypostoma and Mobula rochebrunei. Mobula remains paraphyletic with the inclusion of Manta, a result that is in agreement with previous studies based on molecular and morphological data. A fossil-calibrated Bayesian random local clock analysis suggests that mobulids diverged from Rhinoptera around 30 Mya. Subsequent divergences are characterized by long internodes followed by short bursts of speciation extending from an initial episode of divergence in the Early and Middle Miocene (19-17 Mya) to a second episode during the Pliocene and Pleistocene (3.6 Mya - recent). Estimates of divergence dates overlap significantly with periods of global warming, during which upwelling intensity - and related high primary productivity in upwelling regions - decreased markedly. These periods are hypothesized to have led to fragmentation and isolation of feeding regions leading to possible regional extinctions, as well as the promotion of allopatric speciation. The closely shared evolutionary history of mobulids in combination with ongoing threats from fisheries and climate change effects on upwelling and food supply, reinforces the case for greater protection of this charismatic family of pelagic filter feeders. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Unveiling an ancient biological invasion: molecular analysis of an old European alien, the crested porcupine (Hystrix cristata).

PubMed

Trucchi, Emiliano; Sbordoni, Valerio

2009-05-18

Biological invasions can be considered one of the main threats to biodiversity, and the recognition of common ecological and evolutionary features among invaders can help developing a predictive framework to control further invasions. In particular, the analysis of successful invasive species and of their autochthonous source populations by means of genetic, phylogeographic and demographic tools can provide novel insights into the study of biological invasion patterns. Today, long-term dynamics of biological invasions are still poorly understood and need further investigations. Moreover, distribution and molecular data on native populations could contribute to the recognition of common evolutionary features of successful aliens. We analyzed 2,195 mitochondrial base pairs, including Cytochrome b, Control Region and rRNA 12S, in 161 Italian and 27 African specimens and assessed the ancient invasive origin of Italian crested porcupine (Hystrix cristata) populations from Tunisia. Molecular coalescent-based Bayesian analyses proposed the Roman Age as a putative timeframe of introduction and suggested a retention of genetic diversity during the early phases of colonization. The characterization of the native African genetic background revealed the existence of two differentiated clades: a Mediterranean group and a Sub-Saharan one. Both standard population genetic and advanced molecular demography tools (Bayesian Skyline Plot) did not evidence a clear genetic signature of the expected increase in population size after introduction. Along with the genetic diversity retention during the bottlenecked steps of introduction, this finding could be better described by hypothesizing a multi-invasion event. Evidences of the ancient anthropogenic invasive origin of the Italian Hystrix cristata populations were clearly shown and the native African genetic background was preliminary described. A more complex pattern than a simple demographic exponential growth from a single propagule seems to have characterized this long-term invasion.

Inferring the global phylodynamics of influenza A/H3N2 viruses in Taiwan.

PubMed

Gong, Yu-Nong; Tsao, Kuo-Chien; Chen, Guang-Wu

2018-02-20

Influenza A/H3N2 viruses are characterized by highly mutated RNA genomes. In this study, we focused on tracing the phylodynamics of Taiwanese strains over the past four decades. All Taiwanese H3N2 HA1 sequences and references were downloaded from public database. A Bayesian skyline plot (BSP) and phylogenetic tree were used to analyze the evolutionary history, and Bayesian phylogeographic analysis was applied to predict the spatiotemporal migrations of influenza outbreaks. Genetic diversity was found to have peaked near the summer of 2009 in BSP, in addition to the two earlier reported ones in summer of 2005 and 2007. We predicted their spatiotemporal migrations and found the summer epidemic of 2005 from Korea, and 2007 and 2009 from the Western United States. BSP also predicted an elevated genetic diversity in 2015-2017. Quasispecies were found over approximately 20% of the strains included in this time span. In addition, a first-time seen N31S mutation was noted in Taiwan in 2016-2017. We comprehensively investigated the evolutionary history of Taiwanese strains in 1979-2017. An epidemic caution could thus be raised if genetic diversity was found to have peaked. An example showed a newly-discovered cluster in 2016-2017 strains featuring a mutation N31S together with HA-160 quasispecies. Phylogeographic analysis, moreover, provided useful insights in tracing the possible source and migrations of these epidemics around the world. We demonstrated that Asian destinations including Taiwan were the immediate followers, while U.S. continent was predicted the origin of two summer epidemics in 2007 and 2009. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Pre- versus post-mass extinction divergence of Mesozoic marine reptiles dictated by time-scale dependence of evolutionary rates.

PubMed

Motani, Ryosuke; Jiang, Da-Yong; Tintori, Andrea; Ji, Cheng; Huang, Jian-Dong

2017-05-17

The fossil record of a major clade often starts after a mass extinction even though evolutionary rates, molecular or morphological, suggest its pre-extinction emergence (e.g. squamates, placentals and teleosts). The discrepancy is larger for older clades, and the presence of a time-scale-dependent methodological bias has been suggested, yet it has been difficult to avoid the bias using Bayesian phylogenetic methods. This paradox raises the question of whether ecological vacancies, such as those after mass extinctions, prompt the radiations. We addressed this problem by using a unique temporal characteristic of the morphological data and a high-resolution stratigraphic record, for the oldest clade of Mesozoic marine reptiles, Ichthyosauromorpha. The evolutionary rate was fastest during the first few million years of ichthyosauromorph evolution and became progressively slower over time, eventually becoming six times slower. Using the later slower rates, estimates of divergence time become excessively older. The fast, initial rate suggests the emergence of ichthyosauromorphs after the end-Permian mass extinction, matching an independent result from high-resolution stratigraphic confidence intervals. These reptiles probably invaded the sea as a new ecosystem was formed after the end-Permian mass extinction. Lack of information on early evolution biased Bayesian clock rates. © 2017 The Author(s).

Origin of marine planktonic cyanobacteria.

PubMed

Sánchez-Baracaldo, Patricia

2015-12-01

Marine planktonic cyanobacteria contributed to the widespread oxygenation of the oceans towards the end of the Pre-Cambrian and their evolutionary origin represents a key transition in the geochemical evolution of the Earth surface. Little is known, however, about the evolutionary events that led to the appearance of marine planktonic cyanobacteria. I present here phylogenomic (135 proteins and two ribosomal RNAs), Bayesian relaxed molecular clock (18 proteins, SSU and LSU) and Bayesian stochastic character mapping analyses from 131 cyanobacteria genomes with the aim to unravel key evolutionary steps involved in the origin of marine planktonic cyanobacteria. While filamentous cell types evolved early on at around 2,600-2,300 Mya and likely dominated microbial mats in benthic environments for most of the Proterozoic (2,500-542 Mya), marine planktonic cyanobacteria evolved towards the end of the Proterozoic and early Phanerozoic. Crown groups of modern terrestrial and/or benthic coastal cyanobacteria appeared during the late Paleoproterozoic to early Mesoproterozoic. Decrease in cell diameter and loss of filamentous forms contributed to the evolution of unicellular planktonic lineages during the middle of the Mesoproterozoic (1,600-1,000 Mya) in freshwater environments. This study shows that marine planktonic cyanobacteria evolved from benthic marine and some diverged from freshwater ancestors during the Neoproterozoic (1,000-542 Mya).

Origin of marine planktonic cyanobacteria

PubMed Central

Sánchez-Baracaldo, Patricia

2015-01-01

Marine planktonic cyanobacteria contributed to the widespread oxygenation of the oceans towards the end of the Pre-Cambrian and their evolutionary origin represents a key transition in the geochemical evolution of the Earth surface. Little is known, however, about the evolutionary events that led to the appearance of marine planktonic cyanobacteria. I present here phylogenomic (135 proteins and two ribosomal RNAs), Bayesian relaxed molecular clock (18 proteins, SSU and LSU) and Bayesian stochastic character mapping analyses from 131 cyanobacteria genomes with the aim to unravel key evolutionary steps involved in the origin of marine planktonic cyanobacteria. While filamentous cell types evolved early on at around 2,600–2,300 Mya and likely dominated microbial mats in benthic environments for most of the Proterozoic (2,500–542 Mya), marine planktonic cyanobacteria evolved towards the end of the Proterozoic and early Phanerozoic. Crown groups of modern terrestrial and/or benthic coastal cyanobacteria appeared during the late Paleoproterozoic to early Mesoproterozoic. Decrease in cell diameter and loss of filamentous forms contributed to the evolution of unicellular planktonic lineages during the middle of the Mesoproterozoic (1,600–1,000 Mya) in freshwater environments. This study shows that marine planktonic cyanobacteria evolved from benthic marine and some diverged from freshwater ancestors during the Neoproterozoic (1,000–542 Mya). PMID:26621203

Pre- versus post-mass extinction divergence of Mesozoic marine reptiles dictated by time-scale dependence of evolutionary rates

PubMed Central

Ji, Cheng; Huang, Jian-dong

2017-01-01

The fossil record of a major clade often starts after a mass extinction even though evolutionary rates, molecular or morphological, suggest its pre-extinction emergence (e.g. squamates, placentals and teleosts). The discrepancy is larger for older clades, and the presence of a time-scale-dependent methodological bias has been suggested, yet it has been difficult to avoid the bias using Bayesian phylogenetic methods. This paradox raises the question of whether ecological vacancies, such as those after mass extinctions, prompt the radiations. We addressed this problem by using a unique temporal characteristic of the morphological data and a high-resolution stratigraphic record, for the oldest clade of Mesozoic marine reptiles, Ichthyosauromorpha. The evolutionary rate was fastest during the first few million years of ichthyosauromorph evolution and became progressively slower over time, eventually becoming six times slower. Using the later slower rates, estimates of divergence time become excessively older. The fast, initial rate suggests the emergence of ichthyosauromorphs after the end-Permian mass extinction, matching an independent result from high-resolution stratigraphic confidence intervals. These reptiles probably invaded the sea as a new ecosystem was formed after the end-Permian mass extinction. Lack of information on early evolution biased Bayesian clock rates. PMID:28515201

Accurate quantification of within- and between-host HBV evolutionary rates requires explicit transmission chain modelling.

PubMed

Vrancken, Bram; Suchard, Marc A; Lemey, Philippe

2017-07-01

Analyses of virus evolution in known transmission chains have the potential to elucidate the impact of transmission dynamics on the viral evolutionary rate and its difference within and between hosts. Lin et al. (2015, Journal of Virology , 89/7: 3512-22) recently investigated the evolutionary history of hepatitis B virus in a transmission chain and postulated that the 'colonization-adaptation-transmission' model can explain the differential impact of transmission on synonymous and non-synonymous substitution rates. Here, we revisit this dataset using a full probabilistic Bayesian phylogenetic framework that adequately accounts for the non-independence of sequence data when estimating evolutionary parameters. Examination of the transmission chain data under a flexible coalescent prior reveals a general inconsistency between the estimated timings and clustering patterns and the known transmission history, highlighting the need to incorporate host transmission information in the analysis. Using an explicit genealogical transmission chain model, we find strong support for a transmission-associated decrease of the overall evolutionary rate. However, in contrast to the initially reported larger transmission effect on non-synonymous substitution rate, we find a similar decrease in both non-synonymous and synonymous substitution rates that cannot be adequately explained by the colonization-adaptation-transmission model. An alternative explanation may involve a transmission/establishment advantage of hepatitis B virus variants that have accumulated fewer within-host substitutions, perhaps by spending more time in the covalently closed circular DNA state between each round of viral replication. More generally, this study illustrates that ignoring phylogenetic relationships can lead to misleading evolutionary estimates.

Molecular epidemiology of Powassan virus in North America.

PubMed

Pesko, Kendra N; Torres-Perez, Fernando; Hjelle, Brian L; Ebel, Gregory D

2010-11-01

Powassan virus (POW) is a tick-borne flavivirus distributed in Canada, the northern USA and the Primorsky region of Russia. POW is the only tick-borne flavivirus endemic to the western hemisphere, where it is transmitted mainly between Ixodes cookei and groundhogs (Marmota monax). Deer tick virus (DTV), a genotype of POW that has been frequently isolated from deer ticks (Ixodes scapularis), appears to be maintained in an enzootic cycle between these ticks and white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus). DTV has been isolated from ticks in several regions of North America, including the upper Midwest and the eastern seaboard. The incidence of human disease due to POW is apparently increasing. Previous analysis of tick-borne flaviviruses endemic to North America have been limited to relatively short genome fragments. We therefore assessed the evolutionary dynamics of POW using newly generated complete and partial genome sequences. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic inferences showed two well-supported, reciprocally monophyletic lineages corresponding to POW and DTV. Bayesian skyline plots based on year-of-sampling data indicated no significant population size change for either virus lineage. Statistical model-based selection analyses showed evidence of purifying selection in both lineages. Positive selection was detected in NS-5 sequences for both lineages and envelope sequences for POW. Our findings confirm that POW and DTV sequences are relatively stable over time, which suggests strong evolutionary constraint, and support field observations that suggest that tick-borne flavivirus populations are extremely stable in enzootic foci.

Historical connectivity, contemporary isolation and local adaptation in a widespread but discontinuously distributed species endemic to Taiwan, Rhododendron oldhamii (Ericaceae)

PubMed Central

Hsieh, Y-C; Chung, J-D; Wang, C-N; Chang, C-T; Chen, C-Y; Hwang, S-Y

2013-01-01

Elucidation of the evolutionary processes that constrain or facilitate adaptive divergence is a central goal in evolutionary biology, especially in non-model organisms. We tested whether changes in dynamics of gene flow (historical vs contemporary) caused population isolation and examined local adaptation in response to environmental selective forces in fragmented Rhododendron oldhamii populations. Variation in 26 expressed sequence tag-simple sequence repeat loci from 18 populations in Taiwan was investigated by examining patterns of genetic diversity, inbreeding, geographic structure, recent bottlenecks, and historical and contemporary gene flow. Selection associated with environmental variables was also examined. Bayesian clustering analysis revealed four regional population groups of north, central, south and southeast with significant genetic differentiation. Historical bottlenecks beginning 9168–13,092 years ago and ending 1584–3504 years ago were revealed by estimates using approximate Bayesian computation for all four regional samples analyzed. Recent migration within and across geographic regions was limited. However, major dispersal sources were found within geographic regions. Altitudinal clines of allelic frequencies of environmentally associated positively selected outliers were found, indicating adaptive divergence. Our results point to a transition from historical population connectivity toward contemporary population isolation and divergence on a regional scale. Spatial and temporal dispersal differences may have resulted in regional population divergence and local adaptation associated with environmental variables, which may have played roles as selective forces at a regional scale. PMID:23591517

Molecular evolution of respiratory syncytial virus subgroup A genotype NA1 and ON1 attachment glycoprotein (G) gene in central Vietnam.

PubMed

Yoshihara, Keisuke; Le, Minh Nhat; Nagasawa, Koo; Tsukagoshi, Hiroyuki; Nguyen, Hien Anh; Toizumi, Michiko; Moriuchi, Hiroyuki; Hashizume, Masahiro; Ariyoshi, Koya; Dang, Duc Anh; Kimura, Hirokazu; Yoshida, Lay-Myint

2016-11-01

We performed molecular evolutionary analyses of the G gene C-terminal 3rd hypervariable region of RSV-A genotypes NA1 and ON1 strains from the paediatric acute respiratory infection patients in central Vietnam during the 2010-2012 study period. Time-scaled phylogenetic analyses were performed using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, and pairwise distances (p-distances) were calculated. Bayesian Skyline Plot (BSP) was constructed to analyze the time-trend relative genetic diversity of central Vietnam RSV-A strains. We also estimated the N-glycosylation sites within G gene hypervariable region. Amino acid substitutions under positive and negative selection pressure were examined using Conservative Single Likelihood Ancestor Counting (SLAC), Fixed Effects Likelihood (FEL), Internal Fixed Effects Likelihood (IFEL) and Mixed Effects Model for Episodic Diversifying Selection (MEME) models. The majority of central Vietnam ON1 strains detected in 2012 were classified into lineage 1 with few positively selected substitutions. As for the Vietnamese NA1 strains, four lineages were circulating during the study period with a few positive selection sites. Shifting patterns of the predominantly circulating NA1 lineage were observed in each year during the investigation period. Median p-distance of central Vietnam NA1 strains was wider (p-distance=0.028) than that of ON1 (p-distance=0.012). The molecular evolutionary rate of central Vietnam ON1 strains was estimated to be 2.55×10 -2 (substitutions/site/year) and was faster than NA1 (7.12×10 -3 (substitutions/site/year)). Interestingly, the evolutionary rates of both genotypes ON1 and NA1 strains from central Vietnam were faster than the global strains respectively. Furthermore, the shifts of N-glycosylation pattern within the G gene 3rd hypervariable region of Vietnamese NA1 strains were observed in each year. BSP analysis indicated the rapid growth of RSV-A effective population size in early 2012. These results suggested that the molecular evolution of RSV-A G gene detected in central Vietnam was fast with unique evolutionary dynamics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probability, statistics, and computational science.

PubMed

Beerenwinkel, Niko; Siebourg, Juliane

2012-01-01

In this chapter, we review basic concepts from probability theory and computational statistics that are fundamental to evolutionary genomics. We provide a very basic introduction to statistical modeling and discuss general principles, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. Markov chains, hidden Markov models, and Bayesian network models are introduced in more detail as they occur frequently and in many variations in genomics applications. In particular, we discuss efficient inference algorithms and methods for learning these models from partially observed data. Several simple examples are given throughout the text, some of which point to models that are discussed in more detail in subsequent chapters.

Identifying predictors of time-inhomogeneous viral evolutionary processes.

PubMed

Bielejec, Filip; Baele, Guy; Rodrigo, Allen G; Suchard, Marc A; Lemey, Philippe

2016-07-01

Various factors determine the rate at which mutations are generated and fixed in viral genomes. Viral evolutionary rates may vary over the course of a single persistent infection and can reflect changes in replication rates and selective dynamics. Dedicated statistical inference approaches are required to understand how the complex interplay of these processes shapes the genetic diversity and divergence in viral populations. Although evolutionary models accommodating a high degree of complexity can now be formalized, adequately informing these models by potentially sparse data, and assessing the association of the resulting estimates with external predictors, remains a major challenge. In this article, we present a novel Bayesian evolutionary inference method, which integrates multiple potential predictors and tests their association with variation in the absolute rates of synonymous and non-synonymous substitutions along the evolutionary history. We consider clinical and virological measures as predictors, but also changes in population size trajectories that are simultaneously inferred using coalescent modelling. We demonstrate the potential of our method in an application to within-host HIV-1 sequence data sampled throughout the infection of multiple patients. While analyses of individual patient populations lack statistical power, we detect significant evidence for an abrupt drop in non-synonymous rates in late stage infection and a more gradual increase in synonymous rates over the course of infection in a joint analysis across all patients. The former is predicted by the immune relaxation hypothesis while the latter may be in line with increasing replicative fitness during the asymptomatic stage.

A likelihood ratio test for evolutionary rate shifts and functional divergence among proteins

PubMed Central

Knudsen, Bjarne; Miyamoto, Michael M.

2001-01-01

Changes in protein function can lead to changes in the selection acting on specific residues. This can often be detected as evolutionary rate changes at the sites in question. A maximum-likelihood method for detecting evolutionary rate shifts at specific protein positions is presented. The method determines significance values of the rate differences to give a sound statistical foundation for the conclusions drawn from the analyses. A statistical test for detecting slowly evolving sites is also described. The methods are applied to a set of Myc proteins for the identification of both conserved sites and those with changing evolutionary rates. Those positions with conserved and changing rates are related to the structures and functions of their proteins. The results are compared with an earlier Bayesian method, thereby highlighting the advantages of the new likelihood ratio tests. PMID:11734650

Evolutionary Dynamics of West Nile Virus in the United States, 1999–2011: Phylogeny, Selection Pressure and Evolutionary Time-Scale Analysis

PubMed Central

Chancey, Caren; Ball, Christopher; Akolkar, Namita; Land, Kevin J.; Winkelman, Valerie; Stramer, Susan L.; Kramer, Laura D.; Rios, Maria

2013-01-01

West Nile virus (WNV), an arbovirus maintained in a bird-mosquito enzootic cycle, can infect other vertebrates including humans. WNV was first reported in the US in 1999 where, to date, three genotypes belonging to WNV lineage I have been described (NY99, WN02, SW/WN03). We report here the WNV sequences obtained from two birds, one mosquito, and 29 selected human samples acquired during the US epidemics from 2006–2011 and our examination of the evolutionary dynamics in the open-reading frame of WNV isolates reported from 1999–2011. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods were used to perform the phylogenetic analyses and selection pressure analyses were conducted with the HyPhy package. Phylogenetic analysis identified human WNV isolates within the main WNV genotypes that have circulated in the US. Within genotype SW/WN03, we have identified a cluster with strains derived from blood donors and birds from Idaho and North Dakota collected during 2006–2007, termed here MW/WN06. Using different codon-based and branch-site selection models, we detected a number of codons subjected to positive pressure in WNV genes. The mean nucleotide substitution rate for WNV isolates obtained from humans was calculated to be 5.06×10−4 substitutions/site/year (s/s/y). The Bayesian skyline plot shows that after a period of high genetic variability following the introduction of WNV into the US, the WNV population appears to have reached genetic stability. The establishment of WNV in the US represents a unique opportunity to understand how an arbovirus adapts and evolves in a naïve environment. We describe a novel, well-supported cluster of WNV formed by strains collected from humans and birds from Idaho and North Dakota. Adequate genetic surveillance is essential to public health since new mutants could potentially affect viral pathogenesis, decrease performance of diagnostic assays, and negatively impact the efficacy of vaccines and the development of specific therapies. PMID:23738027

Reconstructing the ups and downs of primate brain evolution: implications for adaptive hypotheses and Homo floresiensis

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Brain size is a key adaptive trait. It is often assumed that increasing brain size was a general evolutionary trend in primates, yet recent fossil discoveries have documented brain size decreases in some lineages, raising the question of how general a trend there was for brains to increase in mass over evolutionary time. We present the first systematic phylogenetic analysis designed to answer this question. Results We performed ancestral state reconstructions of three traits (absolute brain mass, absolute body mass, relative brain mass) using 37 extant and 23 extinct primate species and three approaches to ancestral state reconstruction: parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo. Both absolute and relative brain mass generally increased over evolutionary time, but body mass did not. Nevertheless both absolute and relative brain mass decreased along several branches. Applying these results to the contentious case of Homo floresiensis, we find a number of scenarios under which the proposed evolution of Homo floresiensis' small brain appears to be consistent with patterns observed along other lineages, dependent on body mass and phylogenetic position. Conclusions Our results confirm that brain expansion began early in primate evolution and show that increases occurred in all major clades. Only in terms of an increase in absolute mass does the human lineage appear particularly striking, with both the rate of proportional change in mass and relative brain size having episodes of greater expansion elsewhere on the primate phylogeny. However, decreases in brain mass also occurred along branches in all major clades, and we conclude that, while selection has acted to enlarge primate brains, in some lineages this trend has been reversed. Further analyses of the phylogenetic position of Homo floresiensis and better body mass estimates are required to confirm the plausibility of the evolution of its small brain mass. We find that for our dataset the Bayesian analysis for ancestral state reconstruction is least affected by inclusion of fossil data suggesting that this approach might be preferable for future studies on other taxa with a poor fossil record. PMID:20105283

Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.

PubMed

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.

Evolutionary Divergence in Brain Size between Migratory and Resident Birds

PubMed Central

Sol, Daniel; Garcia, Núria; Iwaniuk, Andrew; Davis, Katie; Meade, Andrew; Boyle, W. Alice; Székely, Tamás

2010-01-01

Despite important recent progress in our understanding of brain evolution, controversy remains regarding the evolutionary forces that have driven its enormous diversification in size. Here, we report that in passerine birds, migratory species tend to have brains that are substantially smaller (relative to body size) than those of resident species, confirming and generalizing previous studies. Phylogenetic reconstructions based on Bayesian Markov chain methods suggest an evolutionary scenario in which some large brained tropical passerines that invaded more seasonal regions evolved migratory behavior and migration itself selected for smaller brain size. Selection for smaller brains in migratory birds may arise from the energetic and developmental costs associated with a highly mobile life cycle, a possibility that is supported by a path analysis. Nevertheless, an important fraction (over 68%) of the correlation between brain mass and migratory distance comes from a direct effect of migration on brain size, perhaps reflecting costs associated with cognitive functions that have become less necessary in migratory species. Overall, our results highlight the importance of retrospective analyses in identifying selective pressures that have shaped brain evolution, and indicate that when it comes to the brain, larger is not always better. PMID:20224776

Evolutionary paths of streptococcal and staphylococcal superantigens

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Streptococcus pyogenes (GAS) harbors several superantigens (SAgs) in the prophage region of its genome, although speG and smez are not located in this region. The diversity of SAgs is thought to arise during horizontal transfer, but their evolutionary pathways have not yet been determined. We recently completed sequencing the entire genome of S. dysgalactiae subsp. equisimilis (SDSE), the closest relative of GAS. Although speG is the only SAg gene of SDSE, speG was present in only 50% of clinical SDSE strains and smez in none. In this study, we analyzed the evolutionary paths of streptococcal and staphylococcal SAgs. Results We compared the sequences of the 12–60 kb speG regions of nine SDSE strains, five speG+ and four speG–. We found that the synteny of this region was highly conserved, whether or not the speG gene was present. Synteny analyses based on genome-wide comparisons of GAS and SDSE indicated that speG is the direct descendant of a common ancestor of streptococcal SAgs, whereas smez was deleted from SDSE after SDSE and GAS split from a common ancestor. Cumulative nucleotide skew analysis of SDSE genomes suggested that speG was located outside segments of steeper slopes than the stable region in the genome, whereas the region flanking smez was unstable, as expected from the results of GAS. We also detected a previously undescribed staphylococcal SAg gene, selW, and a staphylococcal SAg -like gene, ssl, in the core genomes of all Staphylococcus aureus strains sequenced. Amino acid substitution analyses, based on dN/dS window analysis of the products encoded by speG, selW and ssl suggested that all three genes have been subjected to strong positive selection. Evolutionary analysis based on the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method showed that each clade included at least one direct descendant. Conclusions Our findings reveal a plausible model for the comprehensive evolutionary pathway of streptococcal and staphylococcal SAgs. PMID:22900646

Inferring the mode of origin of polyploid species from next-generation sequence data.

PubMed

Roux, Camille; Pannell, John R

2015-03-01

Many eukaryote organisms are polyploid. However, despite their importance, evolutionary inference of polyploid origins and modes of inheritance has been limited by a need for analyses of allele segregation at multiple loci using crosses. The increasing availability of sequence data for nonmodel species now allows the application of established approaches for the analysis of genomic data in polyploids. Here, we ask whether approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), applied to realistic traditional and next-generation sequence data, allows correct inference of the evolutionary and demographic history of polyploids. Using simulations, we evaluate the robustness of evolutionary inference by ABC for tetraploid species as a function of the number of individuals and loci sampled, and the presence or absence of an outgroup. We find that ABC adequately retrieves the recent evolutionary history of polyploid species on the basis of both old and new sequencing technologies. The application of ABC to sequence data from diploid and polyploid species of the plant genus Capsella confirms its utility. Our analysis strongly supports an allopolyploid origin of C. bursa-pastoris about 80 000 years ago. This conclusion runs contrary to previous findings based on the same data set but using an alternative approach and is in agreement with recent findings based on whole-genome sequencing. Our results indicate that ABC is a promising and powerful method for revealing the evolution of polyploid species, without the need to attribute alleles to a homeologous chromosome pair. The approach can readily be extended to more complex scenarios involving higher ploidy levels. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bayesian Fundamentalism or Enlightenment? On the explanatory status and theoretical contributions of Bayesian models of cognition.

PubMed

Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

2011-08-01

The prominence of Bayesian modeling of cognition has increased recently largely because of mathematical advances in specifying and deriving predictions from complex probabilistic models. Much of this research aims to demonstrate that cognitive behavior can be explained from rational principles alone, without recourse to psychological or neurological processes and representations. We note commonalities between this rational approach and other movements in psychology - namely, Behaviorism and evolutionary psychology - that set aside mechanistic explanations or make use of optimality assumptions. Through these comparisons, we identify a number of challenges that limit the rational program's potential contribution to psychological theory. Specifically, rational Bayesian models are significantly unconstrained, both because they are uninformed by a wide range of process-level data and because their assumptions about the environment are generally not grounded in empirical measurement. The psychological implications of most Bayesian models are also unclear. Bayesian inference itself is conceptually trivial, but strong assumptions are often embedded in the hypothesis sets and the approximation algorithms used to derive model predictions, without a clear delineation between psychological commitments and implementational details. Comparing multiple Bayesian models of the same task is rare, as is the realization that many Bayesian models recapitulate existing (mechanistic level) theories. Despite the expressive power of current Bayesian models, we argue they must be developed in conjunction with mechanistic considerations to offer substantive explanations of cognition. We lay out several means for such an integration, which take into account the representations on which Bayesian inference operates, as well as the algorithms and heuristics that carry it out. We argue this unification will better facilitate lasting contributions to psychological theory, avoiding the pitfalls that have plagued previous theoretical movements.

Properties of O dwarf stars in 30 Doradus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabín-Sanjulián, Carolina; VFTS Collaboration

2017-11-01

We perform a quantitative spectroscopic analysis of 105 presumably single O dwarf stars in 30 Doradus, located within the Large Magellanic Cloud. We use mid-to-high resolution multi-epoch optical spectroscopic data obtained within the VLT-FLAMES Tarantula Survey. Stellar and wind parameters are derived by means of the automatic tool iacob-gbat, which is based on a large grid of fastwind models. We also benefit from the Bayesian tool bonnsai to estimate evolutionary masses. We provide a spectral calibration for the effective temperature of O dwarf stars in the LMC, deal with the mass discrepancy problem and investigate the wind properties of the sample.

Weak Genetic Structure in Northern African Dromedary Camels Reflects Their Unique Evolutionary History

PubMed Central

Cherifi, Youcef Amine; Gaouar, Suheil Bechir Semir; Guastamacchia, Rosangela; El-Bahrawy, Khalid Ahmed; Abushady, Asmaa Mohammed Aly; Sharaf, Abdoallah Aboelnasr; Harek, Derradji; Lacalandra, Giovanni Michele; Saïdi-Mehtar, Nadhira

2017-01-01

Knowledge on genetic diversity and structure of camel populations is fundamental for sustainable herd management and breeding program implementation in this species. Here we characterized a total of 331 camels from Northern Africa, representative of six populations and thirteen Algerian and Egyptian geographic regions, using 20 STR markers. The nineteen polymorphic loci displayed an average of 9.79 ± 5.31 alleles, ranging from 2 (CVRL8) to 24 (CVRL1D). Average He was 0.647 ± 0.173. Eleven loci deviated significantly from Hardy-Weinberg proportions (P<0.05), due to excess of homozygous genotypes in all cases except one (CMS18). Distribution of genetic diversity along a weak geographic gradient as suggested by network analysis was not supported by either unsupervised and supervised Bayesian clustering. Traditional extensive/nomadic herding practices, together with the historical use as a long-range beast of burden and its peculiar evolutionary history, with domestication likely occurring from a bottlenecked and geographically confined wild progenitor, may explain the observed genetic patterns. PMID:28103238

Ancient DNA sequence revealed by error-correcting codes.

PubMed

Brandão, Marcelo M; Spoladore, Larissa; Faria, Luzinete C B; Rocha, Andréa S L; Silva-Filho, Marcio C; Palazzo, Reginaldo

2015-07-10

A previously described DNA sequence generator algorithm (DNA-SGA) using error-correcting codes has been employed as a computational tool to address the evolutionary pathway of the genetic code. The code-generated sequence alignment demonstrated that a residue mutation revealed by the code can be found in the same position in sequences of distantly related taxa. Furthermore, the code-generated sequences do not promote amino acid changes in the deviant genomes through codon reassignment. A Bayesian evolutionary analysis of both code-generated and homologous sequences of the Arabidopsis thaliana malate dehydrogenase gene indicates an approximately 1 MYA divergence time from the MDH code-generated sequence node to its paralogous sequences. The DNA-SGA helps to determine the plesiomorphic state of DNA sequences because a single nucleotide alteration often occurs in distantly related taxa and can be found in the alternative codon patterns of noncanonical genetic codes. As a consequence, the algorithm may reveal an earlier stage of the evolution of the standard code.

Ancient DNA sequence revealed by error-correcting codes

PubMed Central

Brandão, Marcelo M.; Spoladore, Larissa; Faria, Luzinete C. B.; Rocha, Andréa S. L.; Silva-Filho, Marcio C.; Palazzo, Reginaldo

2015-01-01

A previously described DNA sequence generator algorithm (DNA-SGA) using error-correcting codes has been employed as a computational tool to address the evolutionary pathway of the genetic code. The code-generated sequence alignment demonstrated that a residue mutation revealed by the code can be found in the same position in sequences of distantly related taxa. Furthermore, the code-generated sequences do not promote amino acid changes in the deviant genomes through codon reassignment. A Bayesian evolutionary analysis of both code-generated and homologous sequences of the Arabidopsis thaliana malate dehydrogenase gene indicates an approximately 1 MYA divergence time from the MDH code-generated sequence node to its paralogous sequences. The DNA-SGA helps to determine the plesiomorphic state of DNA sequences because a single nucleotide alteration often occurs in distantly related taxa and can be found in the alternative codon patterns of noncanonical genetic codes. As a consequence, the algorithm may reveal an earlier stage of the evolution of the standard code. PMID:26159228

Bayesian identification of acoustic impedance in treated ducts.

PubMed

Buot de l'Épine, Y; Chazot, J-D; Ville, J-M

2015-07-01

The noise reduction of a liner placed in the nacelle of a turbofan engine is still difficult to predict due to the lack of knowledge of its acoustic impedance that depends on grazing flow profile, mode order, and sound pressure level. An eduction method, based on a Bayesian approach, is presented here to adjust an impedance model of the liner from sound pressures measured in a rectangular treated duct under multimodal propagation and flow. The cost function is regularized with prior information provided by Guess's [J. Sound Vib. 40, 119-137 (1975)] impedance of a perforated plate. The multi-parameter optimization is achieved with an Evolutionary-Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo algorithm.

A controllable sensor management algorithm capable of learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osadciw, Lisa A.; Veeramacheneni, Kalyan K.

2005-03-01

Sensor management technology progress is challenged by the geographic space it spans, the heterogeneity of the sensors, and the real-time timeframes within which plans controlling the assets are executed. This paper presents a new sensor management paradigm and demonstrates its application in a sensor management algorithm designed for a biometric access control system. This approach consists of an artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm focused on uncertainty measures, which makes the high level decisions to reduce uncertainties and interfaces with the user, integrated cohesively with a bottom up evolutionary algorithm, which optimizes the sensor network"s operation as determined by the AI algorithm. The sensor management algorithm presented is composed of a Bayesian network, the AI algorithm component, and a swarm optimization algorithm, the evolutionary algorithm. Thus, the algorithm can change its own performance goals in real-time and will modify its own decisions based on observed measures within the sensor network. The definition of the measures as well as the Bayesian network determine the robustness of the algorithm and its utility in reacting dynamically to changes in the global system.

Reuse, Recycle, Reweigh: Combating Influenza through Efficient Sequential Bayesian Computation for Massive Data.

PubMed

Tom, Jennifer A; Sinsheimer, Janet S; Suchard, Marc A

Massive datasets in the gigabyte and terabyte range combined with the availability of increasingly sophisticated statistical tools yield analyses at the boundary of what is computationally feasible. Compromising in the face of this computational burden by partitioning the dataset into more tractable sizes results in stratified analyses, removed from the context that justified the initial data collection. In a Bayesian framework, these stratified analyses generate intermediate realizations, often compared using point estimates that fail to account for the variability within and correlation between the distributions these realizations approximate. However, although the initial concession to stratify generally precludes the more sensible analysis using a single joint hierarchical model, we can circumvent this outcome and capitalize on the intermediate realizations by extending the dynamic iterative reweighting MCMC algorithm. In doing so, we reuse the available realizations by reweighting them with importance weights, recycling them into a now tractable joint hierarchical model. We apply this technique to intermediate realizations generated from stratified analyses of 687 influenza A genomes spanning 13 years allowing us to revisit hypotheses regarding the evolutionary history of influenza within a hierarchical statistical framework.

Reuse, Recycle, Reweigh: Combating Influenza through Efficient Sequential Bayesian Computation for Massive Data

PubMed Central

Tom, Jennifer A.; Sinsheimer, Janet S.; Suchard, Marc A.

2015-01-01

Massive datasets in the gigabyte and terabyte range combined with the availability of increasingly sophisticated statistical tools yield analyses at the boundary of what is computationally feasible. Compromising in the face of this computational burden by partitioning the dataset into more tractable sizes results in stratified analyses, removed from the context that justified the initial data collection. In a Bayesian framework, these stratified analyses generate intermediate realizations, often compared using point estimates that fail to account for the variability within and correlation between the distributions these realizations approximate. However, although the initial concession to stratify generally precludes the more sensible analysis using a single joint hierarchical model, we can circumvent this outcome and capitalize on the intermediate realizations by extending the dynamic iterative reweighting MCMC algorithm. In doing so, we reuse the available realizations by reweighting them with importance weights, recycling them into a now tractable joint hierarchical model. We apply this technique to intermediate realizations generated from stratified analyses of 687 influenza A genomes spanning 13 years allowing us to revisit hypotheses regarding the evolutionary history of influenza within a hierarchical statistical framework. PMID:26681992

Long-Branch Attraction Bias and Inconsistency in Bayesian Phylogenetics

PubMed Central

Kolaczkowski, Bryan; Thornton, Joseph W.

2009-01-01

Bayesian inference (BI) of phylogenetic relationships uses the same probabilistic models of evolution as its precursor maximum likelihood (ML), so BI has generally been assumed to share ML's desirable statistical properties, such as largely unbiased inference of topology given an accurate model and increasingly reliable inferences as the amount of data increases. Here we show that BI, unlike ML, is biased in favor of topologies that group long branches together, even when the true model and prior distributions of evolutionary parameters over a group of phylogenies are known. Using experimental simulation studies and numerical and mathematical analyses, we show that this bias becomes more severe as more data are analyzed, causing BI to infer an incorrect tree as the maximum a posteriori phylogeny with asymptotically high support as sequence length approaches infinity. BI's long branch attraction bias is relatively weak when the true model is simple but becomes pronounced when sequence sites evolve heterogeneously, even when this complexity is incorporated in the model. This bias—which is apparent under both controlled simulation conditions and in analyses of empirical sequence data—also makes BI less efficient and less robust to the use of an incorrect evolutionary model than ML. Surprisingly, BI's bias is caused by one of the method's stated advantages—that it incorporates uncertainty about branch lengths by integrating over a distribution of possible values instead of estimating them from the data, as ML does. Our findings suggest that trees inferred using BI should be interpreted with caution and that ML may be a more reliable framework for modern phylogenetic analysis. PMID:20011052

Long-branch attraction bias and inconsistency in Bayesian phylogenetics.

PubMed

Kolaczkowski, Bryan; Thornton, Joseph W

2009-12-09

Bayesian inference (BI) of phylogenetic relationships uses the same probabilistic models of evolution as its precursor maximum likelihood (ML), so BI has generally been assumed to share ML's desirable statistical properties, such as largely unbiased inference of topology given an accurate model and increasingly reliable inferences as the amount of data increases. Here we show that BI, unlike ML, is biased in favor of topologies that group long branches together, even when the true model and prior distributions of evolutionary parameters over a group of phylogenies are known. Using experimental simulation studies and numerical and mathematical analyses, we show that this bias becomes more severe as more data are analyzed, causing BI to infer an incorrect tree as the maximum a posteriori phylogeny with asymptotically high support as sequence length approaches infinity. BI's long branch attraction bias is relatively weak when the true model is simple but becomes pronounced when sequence sites evolve heterogeneously, even when this complexity is incorporated in the model. This bias--which is apparent under both controlled simulation conditions and in analyses of empirical sequence data--also makes BI less efficient and less robust to the use of an incorrect evolutionary model than ML. Surprisingly, BI's bias is caused by one of the method's stated advantages--that it incorporates uncertainty about branch lengths by integrating over a distribution of possible values instead of estimating them from the data, as ML does. Our findings suggest that trees inferred using BI should be interpreted with caution and that ML may be a more reliable framework for modern phylogenetic analysis.

Innovative Bayesian and Parsimony Phylogeny of Dung Beetles (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae, Scarabaeinae) Enhanced by Ontology-Based Partitioning of Morphological Characters

PubMed Central

Tarasov, Sergei; Génier, François

2015-01-01

Scarabaeine dung beetles are the dominant dung feeding group of insects and are widely used as model organisms in conservation, ecology and developmental biology. Due to the conflicts among 13 recently published phylogenies dealing with the higher-level relationships of dung beetles, the phylogeny of this lineage remains largely unresolved. In this study, we conduct rigorous phylogenetic analyses of dung beetles, based on an unprecedented taxon sample (110 taxa) and detailed investigation of morphology (205 characters). We provide the description of morphology and thoroughly illustrate the used characters. Along with parsimony, traditionally used in the analysis of morphological data, we also apply the Bayesian method with a novel approach that uses anatomy ontology for matrix partitioning. This approach allows for heterogeneity in evolutionary rates among characters from different anatomical regions. Anatomy ontology generates a number of parameter-partition schemes which we compare using Bayes factor. We also test the effect of inclusion of autapomorphies in the morphological analysis, which hitherto has not been examined. Generally, schemes with more parameters were favored in the Bayesian comparison suggesting that characters located on different body regions evolve at different rates and that partitioning of the data matrix using anatomy ontology is reasonable; however, trees from the parsimony and all the Bayesian analyses were quite consistent. The hypothesized phylogeny reveals many novel clades and provides additional support for some clades recovered in previous analyses. Our results provide a solid basis for a new classification of dung beetles, in which the taxonomic limits of the tribes Dichotomiini, Deltochilini and Coprini are restricted and many new tribes must be described. Based on the consistency of the phylogeny with biogeography, we speculate that dung beetles may have originated in the Mesozoic contrary to the traditional view pointing to a Cenozoic origin. PMID:25781019

Genome-wide analysis and expression profiling of the GRF gene family in oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.).

PubMed

Ma, Jin-Qi; Jian, Hong-Ju; Yang, Bo; Lu, Kun; Zhang, Ao-Xiang; Liu, Pu; Li, Jia-Na

2017-07-15

Growth regulating-factors (GRFs) are plant-specific transcription factors that help regulate plant growth and development. Genome-wide identification and evolutionary analyses of GRF gene families have been performed in Arabidopsis thaliana, Zea mays, Oryza sativa, and Brassica rapa, but a comprehensive analysis of the GRF gene family in oilseed rape (Brassica napus) has not yet been reported. In the current study, we identified 35 members of the BnGRF family in B. napus. We analyzed the chromosomal distribution, phylogenetic relationships (Bayesian Inference and Neighbor Joining method), gene structures, and motifs of the BnGRF family members, as well as the cis-acting regulatory elements in their promoters. We also analyzed the expression patterns of 15 randomly selected BnGRF genes in various tissues and in plant varieties with different harvest indices and gibberellic acid (GA) responses. The expression levels of BnGRFs under GA treatment suggested the presence of possible negative feedback regulation. The evolutionary patterns and expression profiles of BnGRFs uncovered in this study increase our understanding of the important roles played by these genes in oilseed rape. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

MrBayes tgMC3++: A High Performance and Resource-Efficient GPU-Oriented Phylogenetic Analysis Method.

PubMed

Ling, Cheng; Hamada, Tsuyoshi; Gao, Jingyang; Zhao, Guoguang; Sun, Donghong; Shi, Weifeng

2016-01-01

MrBayes is a widespread phylogenetic inference tool harnessing empirical evolutionary models and Bayesian statistics. However, the computational cost on the likelihood estimation is very expensive, resulting in undesirably long execution time. Although a number of multi-threaded optimizations have been proposed to speed up MrBayes, there are bottlenecks that severely limit the GPU thread-level parallelism of likelihood estimations. This study proposes a high performance and resource-efficient method for GPU-oriented parallelization of likelihood estimations. Instead of having to rely on empirical programming, the proposed novel decomposition storage model implements high performance data transfers implicitly. In terms of performance improvement, a speedup factor of up to 178 can be achieved on the analysis of simulated datasets by four Tesla K40 cards. In comparison to the other publicly available GPU-oriented MrBayes, the tgMC 3 ++ method (proposed herein) outperforms the tgMC 3 (v1.0), nMC 3 (v2.1.1) and oMC 3 (v1.00) methods by speedup factors of up to 1.6, 1.9 and 2.9, respectively. Moreover, tgMC 3 ++ supports more evolutionary models and gamma categories, which previous GPU-oriented methods fail to take into analysis.

Host switch during evolution of a genetically distinct hantavirus in the American shrew mole (Neurotrichus gibbsii)

PubMed Central

Kang, Hae Ji; Bennett, Shannon N.; Dizney, Laurie; Sumibcay, Laarni; Arai, Satoru; Ruedas, Luis A.; Song, Jin-Won; Yanagihara, Richard

2009-01-01

A genetically distinct hantavirus, designated Oxbow virus (OXBV), was detected in tissues of an American shrew mole (Neurotrichus gibbsii), captured in Gresham, Oregon, in September 2003. Pairwise analysis of full-length S- and M- and partial L-segment nucleotide and amino acid sequences of OXBV indicated low sequence similarity with rodent-borne hantaviruses. Phylogenetic analyses using maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods, and host-parasite evolutionary comparisons, showed that OXBV and Asama virus, a hantavirus recently identified from the Japanese shrew mole (Urotrichus talpoides), were related to soricine shrew-borne hantaviruses from North America and Eurasia, respectively, suggesting parallel evolution associated with cross-species transmission. PMID:19394994

Theory of Mind: Did Evolution Fool Us?

PubMed Central

Devaine, Marie; Hollard, Guillaume; Daunizeau, Jean

2014-01-01

Theory of Mind (ToM) is the ability to attribute mental states (e.g., beliefs and desires) to other people in order to understand and predict their behaviour. If others are rewarded to compete or cooperate with you, then what they will do depends upon what they believe about you. This is the reason why social interaction induces recursive ToM, of the sort “I think that you think that I think, etc.”. Critically, recursion is the common notion behind the definition of sophistication of human language, strategic thinking in games, and, arguably, ToM. Although sophisticated ToM is believed to have high adaptive fitness, broad experimental evidence from behavioural economics, experimental psychology and linguistics point towards limited recursivity in representing other’s beliefs. In this work, we test whether such apparent limitation may not in fact be proven to be adaptive, i.e. optimal in an evolutionary sense. First, we propose a meta-Bayesian approach that can predict the behaviour of ToM sophistication phenotypes who engage in social interactions. Second, we measure their adaptive fitness using evolutionary game theory. Our main contribution is to show that one does not have to appeal to biological costs to explain our limited ToM sophistication. In fact, the evolutionary cost/benefit ratio of ToM sophistication is non trivial. This is partly because an informational cost prevents highly sophisticated ToM phenotypes to fully exploit less sophisticated ones (in a competitive context). In addition, cooperation surprisingly favours lower levels of ToM sophistication. Taken together, these quantitative corollaries of the “social Bayesian brain” hypothesis provide an evolutionary account for both the limitation of ToM sophistication in humans as well as the persistence of low ToM sophistication levels. PMID:24505296

Theory of mind: did evolution fool us?

PubMed

Devaine, Marie; Hollard, Guillaume; Daunizeau, Jean

2014-01-01

Theory of Mind (ToM) is the ability to attribute mental states (e.g., beliefs and desires) to other people in order to understand and predict their behaviour. If others are rewarded to compete or cooperate with you, then what they will do depends upon what they believe about you. This is the reason why social interaction induces recursive ToM, of the sort "I think that you think that I think, etc.". Critically, recursion is the common notion behind the definition of sophistication of human language, strategic thinking in games, and, arguably, ToM. Although sophisticated ToM is believed to have high adaptive fitness, broad experimental evidence from behavioural economics, experimental psychology and linguistics point towards limited recursivity in representing other's beliefs. In this work, we test whether such apparent limitation may not in fact be proven to be adaptive, i.e. optimal in an evolutionary sense. First, we propose a meta-Bayesian approach that can predict the behaviour of ToM sophistication phenotypes who engage in social interactions. Second, we measure their adaptive fitness using evolutionary game theory. Our main contribution is to show that one does not have to appeal to biological costs to explain our limited ToM sophistication. In fact, the evolutionary cost/benefit ratio of ToM sophistication is non trivial. This is partly because an informational cost prevents highly sophisticated ToM phenotypes to fully exploit less sophisticated ones (in a competitive context). In addition, cooperation surprisingly favours lower levels of ToM sophistication. Taken together, these quantitative corollaries of the "social Bayesian brain" hypothesis provide an evolutionary account for both the limitation of ToM sophistication in humans as well as the persistence of low ToM sophistication levels.

Secondary Contact and Admixture between Independently Invading Populations of the Western Corn Rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera in Europe

PubMed Central

Bermond, Gérald; Ciosi, Marc; Lombaert, Eric; Blin, Aurélie; Boriani, Marco; Furlan, Lorenzo; Toepfer, Stefan; Guillemaud, Thomas

2012-01-01

The western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), is one of the most destructive pests of corn in North America and is currently invading Europe. The two major invasive outbreaks of rootworm in Europe have occurred, in North-West Italy and in Central and South-Eastern Europe. These two outbreaks originated from independent introductions from North America. Secondary contact probably occurred in North Italy between these two outbreaks, in 2008. We used 13 microsatellite markers to conduct a population genetics study, to demonstrate that this geographic contact resulted in a zone of admixture in the Italian region of Veneto. We show that i) genetic variation is greater in the contact zone than in the parental outbreaks; ii) several signs of admixture were detected in some Venetian samples, in a Bayesian analysis of the population structure and in an approximate Bayesian computation analysis of historical scenarios and, finally, iii) allelic frequency clines were observed at microsatellite loci. The contact between the invasive outbreaks in North-West Italy and Central and South-Eastern Europe resulted in a zone of admixture, with particular characteristics. The evolutionary implications of the existence of a zone of admixture in Northern Italy and their possible impact on the invasion success of the western corn rootworm are discussed. PMID:23189184

Evolutionary origin and phylogeny of the modern holocephalans (Chondrichthyes: Chimaeriformes): a mitogenomic perspective.

PubMed

Inoue, Jun G; Miya, Masaki; Lam, Kevin; Tay, Boon-Hui; Danks, Janine A; Bell, Justin; Walker, Terrence I; Venkatesh, Byrappa

2010-11-01

With our increasing ability for generating whole-genome sequences, comparative analysis of whole genomes has become a powerful tool for understanding the structure, function, and evolutionary history of human and other vertebrate genomes. By virtue of their position basal to bony vertebrates, cartilaginous fishes (class Chondrichthyes) are a valuable outgroup in comparative studies of vertebrates. Recently, a holocephalan cartilaginous fish, the elephant shark, Callorhinchus milii (Subclass Holocephali: Order Chimaeriformes), has been proposed as a model genome, and low-coverage sequence of its genome has been generated. Despite such an increasing interest, the evolutionary history of the modern holocephalans-a previously successful and diverse group but represented by only 39 extant species-and their relationship with elasmobranchs and other jawed vertebrates has been poorly documented largely owing to a lack of well-preserved fossil materials after the end-Permian about 250 Ma. In this study, we assembled the whole mitogenome sequences for eight representatives from all the three families of the modern holocephalans and investigated their phylogenetic relationships and evolutionary history. Unambiguously aligned sequences from these holocephalans together with 17 other vertebrates (9,409 nt positions excluding entire third codon positions) were subjected to partitioned maximum likelihood analysis. The resulting tree strongly supported a single origin of the modern holocephalans and their sister-group relationship with elasmobranchs. The mitogenomic tree recovered the most basal callorhinchids within the chimaeriforms, which is sister to a clade comprising the remaining two families (rhinochimaerids and chimaerids). The timetree derived from a relaxed molecular clock Bayesian method suggests that the holocephalans originated in the Silurian about 420 Ma, having survived from the end-Permian (250 Ma) mass extinction and undergoing familial diversifications during the late Jurassic to early Cretaceous (170-120 Ma). This postulated evolutionary scenario agrees well with that based on the paleontological observations.

Evolutionary history of the little fire ant Wasmannia auropunctata before global invasion: inferring dispersal patterns, niche requirements, and past and present distribution within its native range

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We integrated classic and Bayesian phylogeographic tools with a paleodistribution modeling approach to study the historical demographic processes that shaped the distribution of the invasive ant Wasmannia auropunctata in its native South America. We generated mitochondrial Cytochrome Oxidase I seque...

Inferring the origin of populations introduced from a genetically structured native range by approximate Bayesian computation: case study of the invasive ladybird Harmonia axyridis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The correct identification of the source population of an invasive species is a prerequisite for defining and testing different hypotheses concerning the environmental and evolutionary factors responsible for biological invasions. The native area of invasive species may be large, barely known and/or...

MDTS: automatic complex materials design using Monte Carlo tree search.

PubMed

M Dieb, Thaer; Ju, Shenghong; Yoshizoe, Kazuki; Hou, Zhufeng; Shiomi, Junichiro; Tsuda, Koji

2017-01-01

Complex materials design is often represented as a black-box combinatorial optimization problem. In this paper, we present a novel python library called MDTS (Materials Design using Tree Search). Our algorithm employs a Monte Carlo tree search approach, which has shown exceptional performance in computer Go game. Unlike evolutionary algorithms that require user intervention to set parameters appropriately, MDTS has no tuning parameters and works autonomously in various problems. In comparison to a Bayesian optimization package, our algorithm showed competitive search efficiency and superior scalability. We succeeded in designing large Silicon-Germanium (Si-Ge) alloy structures that Bayesian optimization could not deal with due to excessive computational cost. MDTS is available at https://github.com/tsudalab/MDTS.

MDTS: automatic complex materials design using Monte Carlo tree search

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieb, Thaer M.; Ju, Shenghong; Yoshizoe, Kazuki; Hou, Zhufeng; Shiomi, Junichiro; Tsuda, Koji

2017-12-01

Complex materials design is often represented as a black-box combinatorial optimization problem. In this paper, we present a novel python library called MDTS (Materials Design using Tree Search). Our algorithm employs a Monte Carlo tree search approach, which has shown exceptional performance in computer Go game. Unlike evolutionary algorithms that require user intervention to set parameters appropriately, MDTS has no tuning parameters and works autonomously in various problems. In comparison to a Bayesian optimization package, our algorithm showed competitive search efficiency and superior scalability. We succeeded in designing large Silicon-Germanium (Si-Ge) alloy structures that Bayesian optimization could not deal with due to excessive computational cost. MDTS is available at https://github.com/tsudalab/MDTS.

Object-oriented Bayesian networks for paternity cases with allelic dependencies

PubMed Central

Hepler, Amanda B.; Weir, Bruce S.

2008-01-01

This study extends the current use of Bayesian networks by incorporating the effects of allelic dependencies in paternity calculations. The use of object-oriented networks greatly simplify the process of building and interpreting forensic identification models, allowing researchers to solve new, more complex problems. We explore two paternity examples: the most common scenario where DNA evidence is available from the alleged father, the mother and the child; a more complex casewhere DNA is not available from the alleged father, but is available from the alleged father’s brother. Object-oriented networks are built, using HUGIN, for each example which incorporate the effects of allelic dependence caused by evolutionary relatedness. PMID:19079769

Bayesian Morphological Clock Methods Resurrect Placoderm Monophyly and Reveal Rapid Early Evolution in Jawed Vertebrates.

PubMed

King, Benedict; Qiao, Tuo; Lee, Michael S Y; Zhu, Min; Long, John A

2017-07-01

The phylogeny of early gnathostomes provides an important framework for understanding one of the most significant evolutionary events, the origin and diversification of jawed vertebrates. A series of recent cladistic analyses have suggested that the placoderms, an extinct group of armoured fish, form a paraphyletic group basal to all other jawed vertebrates. We revised and expanded this morphological data set, most notably by sampling autapomorphies in a similar way to parsimony-informative traits, thus ensuring this data (unlike most existing morphological data sets) satisfied an important assumption of Bayesian tip-dated morphological clock approaches. We also found problems with characters supporting placoderm paraphyly, including character correlation and incorrect codings. Analysis of this data set reveals that paraphyly and monophyly of core placoderms (excluding maxillate forms) are essentially equally parsimonious. The two alternative topologies have different root positions for the jawed vertebrates but are otherwise similar. However, analysis using tip-dated clock methods reveals strong support for placoderm monophyly, due to this analysis favoring trees with more balanced rates of evolution. Furthermore, enforcing placoderm paraphyly results in higher levels and unusual patterns of rate heterogeneity among branches, similar to that generated from simulated trees reconstructed with incorrect root positions. These simulations also show that Bayesian tip-dated clock methods outperform parsimony when the outgroup is largely uninformative (e.g., due to inapplicable characters), as might be the case here. The analysis also reveals that gnathostomes underwent a rapid burst of evolution during the Silurian period which declined during the Early Devonian. This rapid evolution during a period with few articulated fossils might partly explain the difficulty in ascertaining the root position of jawed vertebrates. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Global distribution of NA1 genotype of respiratory syncytial virus and its evolutionary dynamics assessed from the past 11 years.

PubMed

Haider, Md Shakir Hussain; Deeba, Farah; Khan, Wajihul Hasan; Naqvi, Irshad H; Ali, Sher; Ahmed, Anwar; Broor, Shobha; Alsenaidy, Hytham A; Alsenaidy, Abdulrahman M; Dohare, Ravins; Parveen, Shama

2018-06-01

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a potent pathogen having global distribution. The main purpose of this study was to gain an insight into distribution pattern of the NA1 genotype of group A RSV across the globe together with its evolutionary dynamics. We focused on the second hypervariable region of the G protein gene and used the same for Phylogenetic, Bayesian and Network analyses. Eighteen percent of the samples collected from 500 symptomatic pediatric patients with acute respiratory tract infection (ARI) were found to be positive for RSV during 2011-15 from New Delhi, India. Of these, group B RSV was predominant and clustered into two different genotypes (BA and SAB4). Similarly, group A viruses clustered into two genotypes (NA1 and ON1). The data set from the group A viruses included 543 sequences from 23 different countries including 67 strains from India. The local evolutionary dynamics suggested consistent virus population of NA1 genotype in India during 2009 to 2014. The molecular clock analysis suggested that most recent common ancestor of group A and NA1 genotype have emerged in during the years 1953 and 2000, respectively. The global evolutionary rates of group A viruses and NA1 genotype were estimated to be 3.49 × 10 -3 (95% HPD, 2.90-4.17 × 10 -3 ) and 3.56 × 10 -3 (95% HPD, 2.91 × 10 -3 -4.18 × 10 -3 ) substitution/site/year, respectively. Analysis of the NA1 genotype of group A RSV reported during 11 years i.e. from 2004 to 2014 showed its dominance in 21 different countries across the globe reflecting its evolutionary dynamics. The Network analysis showed highly intricate but an inconsistent pattern of haplotypes of NA1 genotype circulating in the world. Present study seems to be first comprehensive attempt on global distribution and evolution of NA1 genotype augmenting the optimism towards the vaccine development. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The evolutionary history of Eugenia sect. Phyllocalyx (Myrtaceae) corroborates historically stable areas in the southern Atlantic forests

PubMed Central

de Oliveira Bünger, Mariana; Fernanda Mazine, Fiorella; Forest, Félix; Leandro Bueno, Marcelo; Renato Stehmann, João; Lucas, Eve J.

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Eugenia sect. Phyllocalyx Nied. includes 14 species endemic to the Neotropics, mostly distributed in the Atlantic coastal forests of Brazil. Here the first comprehensive phylogenetic study of this group is presented, and this phylogeny is used as the basis to evaluate the recent infrageneric classification in Eugenia sensu lato (s.l.) to test the history of the evolution of traits in the group and test hypotheses associated with the history of this clade. Methods A total of 42 taxa were sampled, of which 14 were Eugenia sect. Phyllocalyx for one nuclear (ribosomal internal transcribed spacer) and four plastid markers (psbA-trnH, rpl16, trnL-rpl32 and trnQ-rps16). The relationships were reconstructed based on Bayesian analysis and maximum likelihood. Additionally, ancestral area analysis and modelling methods were used to estimate species dispersal, comparing historically climatic stable (refuges) and unstable areas. Key Results Maximum likelihood and Bayesian inferences indicate that Eugenia sect. Phyllocalyx is paraphyletic and the two clades recovered are characterized by combinations of morphological characters. Phylogenetic relationships support a link between Cerrado and south-eastern species and a difference in the composition of species from north-eastern and south-eastern Atlantic forest. Refugia and stable areas identified within unstable areas suggest that these areas were important to maintain diversity in the Atlantic forest biodiversity hotspot. Conclusion This study provides a robust phylogenetic framework to address important historical questions for Eugenia s.l. within an evolutionary context, supporting the need for better taxonomic study of one of the largest genera in the Neotropics. Furthermore, valuable insight is offered into diversification and biome shifts of plant species in the highly environmentally impacted Atlantic forest of South America. Evidence is presented that climate stability in the south-eastern Atlantic forest during the Quaternary contributed to the highest levels of plant diversity in this region that acted as a refugium. PMID:27974324

Theoretical Foundation of the RelTime Method for Estimating Divergence Times from Variable Evolutionary Rates

PubMed Central

Tamura, Koichiro; Tao, Qiqing; Kumar, Sudhir

2018-01-01

Abstract RelTime estimates divergence times by relaxing the assumption of a strict molecular clock in a phylogeny. It shows excellent performance in estimating divergence times for both simulated and empirical molecular sequence data sets in which evolutionary rates varied extensively throughout the tree. RelTime is computationally efficient and scales well with increasing size of data sets. Until now, however, RelTime has not had a formal mathematical foundation. Here, we show that the basis of the RelTime approach is a relative rate framework (RRF) that combines comparisons of evolutionary rates in sister lineages with the principle of minimum rate change between evolutionary lineages and their respective descendants. We present analytical solutions for estimating relative lineage rates and divergence times under RRF. We also discuss the relationship of RRF with other approaches, including the Bayesian framework. We conclude that RelTime will be useful for phylogenies with branch lengths derived not only from molecular data, but also morphological and biochemical traits. PMID:29893954

Effects of Mitochondrial DNA Rate Variation on Reconstruction of Pleistocene Demographic History in a Social Avian Species, Pomatostomus superciliosus

PubMed Central

Norman, Janette A.; Blackmore, Caroline J.; Rourke, Meaghan; Christidis, Les

2014-01-01

Mitochondrial sequence data is often used to reconstruct the demographic history of Pleistocene populations in an effort to understand how species have responded to past climate change events. However, departures from neutral equilibrium conditions can confound evolutionary inference in species with structured populations or those that have experienced periods of population expansion or decline. Selection can affect patterns of mitochondrial DNA variation and variable mutation rates among mitochondrial genes can compromise inferences drawn from single markers. We investigated the contribution of these factors to patterns of mitochondrial variation and estimates of time to most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) for two clades in a co-operatively breeding avian species, the white-browed babbler Pomatostomus superciliosus. Both the protein-coding ND3 gene and hypervariable domain I control region sequences showed departures from neutral expectations within the superciliosus clade, and a two-fold difference in TMRCA estimates. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis provided evidence of departure from a strict clock model of molecular evolution in domain I, leading to an over-estimation of TMRCA for the superciliosus clade at this marker. Our results suggest mitochondrial studies that attempt to reconstruct Pleistocene demographic histories should rigorously evaluate data for departures from neutral equilibrium expectations, including variation in evolutionary rates across multiple markers. Failure to do so can lead to serious errors in the estimation of evolutionary parameters and subsequent demographic inferences concerning the role of climate as a driver of evolutionary change. These effects may be especially pronounced in species with complex social structures occupying heterogeneous environments. We propose that environmentally driven differences in social structure may explain observed differences in evolutionary rate of domain I sequences, resulting from longer than expected retention times for matriarchal lineages in the superciliosus clade. PMID:25181547

Evolutionary Relations of Hexanchiformes Deep-Sea Sharks Elucidated by Whole Mitochondrial Genome Sequences

PubMed Central

Tanaka, Keiko; Tomita, Taketeru; Suzuki, Shingo; Hosomichi, Kazuyoshi; Sano, Kazumi; Doi, Hiroyuki; Kono, Azumi; Inoko, Hidetoshi; Kulski, Jerzy K.; Tanaka, Sho

2013-01-01

Hexanchiformes is regarded as a monophyletic taxon, but the morphological and genetic relationships between the five extant species within the order are still uncertain. In this study, we determined the whole mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences of seven sharks including representatives of the five Hexanchiformes, one squaliform, and one carcharhiniform and inferred the phylogenetic relationships among those species and 12 other Chondrichthyes (cartilaginous fishes) species for which the complete mitogenome is available. The monophyly of Hexanchiformes and its close relation with all other Squaliformes sharks were strongly supported by likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of 13,749 aligned nucleotides of 13 protein coding genes and two rRNA genes that were derived from the whole mDNA sequences of the 19 species. The phylogeny suggested that Hexanchiformes is in the superorder Squalomorphi, Chlamydoselachus anguineus (frilled shark) is the sister species to all other Hexanchiformes, and the relations within Hexanchiformes are well resolved as Chlamydoselachus, (Notorynchus, (Heptranchias, (Hexanchus griseus, H. nakamurai))). Based on our phylogeny, we discussed evolutionary scenarios of the jaw suspension mechanism and gill slit numbers that are significant features in the sharks. PMID:24089661

Coral reefs as drivers of cladogenesis: expanding coral reefs, cryptic extinction events, and the development of biodiversity hotspots.

PubMed

Cowman, P F; Bellwood, D R

2011-12-01

Diversification rates within four conspicuous coral reef fish families (Labridae, Chaetodontidae, Pomacentridae and Apogonidae) were estimated using Bayesian inference. Lineage through time plots revealed a possible late Eocene/early Oligocene cryptic extinction event coinciding with the collapse of the ancestral Tethyan/Arabian hotspot. Rates of diversification analysis revealed elevated cladogenesis in all families in the Oligocene/Miocene. Throughout the Miocene, lineages with a high percentage of coral reef-associated taxa display significantly higher net diversification rates than expected. The development of a complex mosaic of reef habitats in the Indo-Australian Archipelago (IAA) during the Oligocene/Miocene appears to have been a significant driver of cladogenesis. Patterns of diversification suggest that coral reefs acted as a refuge from high extinction, as reef taxa are able to sustain diversification at high extinction rates. The IAA appears to support both cladogenesis and survival in associated lineages, laying the foundation for the recent IAA marine biodiversity hotspot. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2011 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Mitogenomes of two neotropical bird species and the multiple independent origin of mitochondrial gene orders in Passeriformes.

PubMed

Caparroz, Renato; Rocha, Amanda V; Cabanne, Gustavo S; Tubaro, Pablo; Aleixo, Alexandre; Lemmon, Emily M; Lemmon, Alan R

2018-06-01

At least four mitogenome arrangements occur in Passeriformes and differences among them are derived from an initial tandem duplication involving a segment containing the control region (CR), followed by loss or reduction of some parts of this segment. However, it is still unclear how often duplication events have occurred in this bird order. In this study, the mitogenomes from two species of Neotropical passerines (Sicalis olivascens and Lepidocolaptes angustirostris) with different gene arrangements were first determined. We also estimated how often duplication events occurred in Passeriformes and if the two CR copies demonstrate a pattern of concerted evolution in Sylvioidea. One tissue sample for each species was used to obtain the mitogenomes as a byproduct using next generation sequencing. The evolutionary history of mitogenome rearrangements was reconstructed mapping these characters onto a mitogenome Bayesian phylogenetic tree of Passeriformes. Finally, we performed a Bayesian analysis for both CRs from some Sylvioidea species in order to evaluate the evolutionary process involving these two copies. Both mitogenomes described comprise 2 rRNAs, 22 tRNAs, 13 protein-codon genes and the CR. However, S. olivascens has 16,768 bp showing the ancestral avian arrangement, while L. angustirostris has 16,973 bp and the remnant CR2 arrangement. Both species showed the expected gene order compared to their closest relatives. The ancestral state reconstruction suggesting at least six independent duplication events followed by partial deletions or loss of one copy in some lineages. Our results also provide evidence that both CRs in some Sylvioidea species seem to be maintained in an apparently functional state, perhaps by concerted evolution, and that this mechanism may be important for the evolution of the bird mitogenome.

Coestimation of recombination, substitution and molecular adaptation rates by approximate Bayesian computation.

PubMed

Lopes, J S; Arenas, M; Posada, D; Beaumont, M A

2014-03-01

The estimation of parameters in molecular evolution may be biased when some processes are not considered. For example, the estimation of selection at the molecular level using codon-substitution models can have an upward bias when recombination is ignored. Here we address the joint estimation of recombination, molecular adaptation and substitution rates from coding sequences using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). We describe the implementation of a regression-based strategy for choosing subsets of summary statistics for coding data, and show that this approach can accurately infer recombination allowing for intracodon recombination breakpoints, molecular adaptation and codon substitution rates. We demonstrate that our ABC approach can outperform other analytical methods under a variety of evolutionary scenarios. We also show that although the choice of the codon-substitution model is important, our inferences are robust to a moderate degree of model misspecification. In addition, we demonstrate that our approach can accurately choose the evolutionary model that best fits the data, providing an alternative for when the use of full-likelihood methods is impracticable. Finally, we applied our ABC method to co-estimate recombination, substitution and molecular adaptation rates from 24 published human immunodeficiency virus 1 coding data sets.

The First Comprehensive Phylogeny of Coptis (Ranunculaceae) and Its Implications for Character Evolution and Classification

PubMed Central

Xiang, Kun-Li; Wu, Sheng-Dan; Yu, Sheng-Xian; Liu, Yang; Jabbour, Florian; Erst, Andrey S.; Zhao, Liang; Wang, Wei; Chen, Zhi-Duan

2016-01-01

Coptis (Ranunculaceae) contains 15 species and is one of the pharmaceutically most important plant genera in eastern Asia. Understanding of the evolution of morphological characters and phylogenetic relationships within the genus is very limited. Here, we present the first comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of the genus based on two plastid and one nuclear markers. The phylogeny was reconstructed using Bayesian inference, as well as maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood methods. The Swofford-Olsen-Waddell-Hillis and Bayesian tests were used to assess the strength of the conflicts between traditional taxonomic units and those suggested by the phylogenetic inferences. Evolution of morphological characters was inferred using Bayesian method to identify synapomorphies for the infrageneric lineages. Our data recognize two strongly supported clades within Coptis. The first clade contains subgenus Coptis and section Japonocoptis of subgenus Metacoptis, supported by morphological characters, such as traits of the central leaflet base, petal color, and petal shape. The second clade consists of section Japonocoptis of subgenus Metacoptis. Coptis morii is not united with C. quinquefolia, in contrast with the view that C. morii is a synonym of C. quinquefolia. Two varieties of C. chinensis do not cluster together. Coptis groenlandica and C. lutescens are reduced to C. trifolia and C. japonica, respectively. Central leaflet base, sepal shape, and petal blade carry a strong phylogenetic signal in Coptis, while leaf type, sepal and petal color, and petal shape exhibit relatively higher levels of evolutionary flexibility. PMID:27044035

Advances in Time Estimation Methods for Molecular Data.

PubMed

Kumar, Sudhir; Hedges, S Blair

2016-04-01

Molecular dating has become central to placing a temporal dimension on the tree of life. Methods for estimating divergence times have been developed for over 50 years, beginning with the proposal of molecular clock in 1962. We categorize the chronological development of these methods into four generations based on the timing of their origin. In the first generation approaches (1960s-1980s), a strict molecular clock was assumed to date divergences. In the second generation approaches (1990s), the equality of evolutionary rates between species was first tested and then a strict molecular clock applied to estimate divergence times. The third generation approaches (since ∼2000) account for differences in evolutionary rates across the tree by using a statistical model, obviating the need to assume a clock or to test the equality of evolutionary rates among species. Bayesian methods in the third generation require a specific or uniform prior on the speciation-process and enable the inclusion of uncertainty in clock calibrations. The fourth generation approaches (since 2012) allow rates to vary from branch to branch, but do not need prior selection of a statistical model to describe the rate variation or the specification of speciation model. With high accuracy, comparable to Bayesian approaches, and speeds that are orders of magnitude faster, fourth generation methods are able to produce reliable timetrees of thousands of species using genome scale data. We found that early time estimates from second generation studies are similar to those of third and fourth generation studies, indicating that methodological advances have not fundamentally altered the timetree of life, but rather have facilitated time estimation by enabling the inclusion of more species. Nonetheless, we feel an urgent need for testing the accuracy and precision of third and fourth generation methods, including their robustness to misspecification of priors in the analysis of large phylogenies and data sets. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

New phiomorph rodents from the latest Eocene of Egypt, and the impact of Bayesian "clock"-based phylogenetic methods on estimates of basal hystricognath relationships and biochronology.

PubMed

Sallam, Hesham M; Seiffert, Erik R

2016-01-01

The Fayum Depression of Egypt has yielded fossils of hystricognathous rodents from multiple Eocene and Oligocene horizons that range in age from ∼37 to ∼30 Ma and document several phases in the early evolution of crown Hystricognathi and one of its major subclades, Phiomorpha. Here we describe two new genera and species of basal phiomorphs, Birkamys korai and Mubhammys vadumensis, based on rostra and maxillary and mandibular remains from the terminal Eocene (∼34 Ma) Fayum Locality 41 (L-41). Birkamys is the smallest known Paleogene hystricognath, has very simple molars, and, like derived Oligocene-to-Recent phiomorphs (but unlike contemporaneous and older taxa) apparently retained dP(4)∕4 late into life, with no evidence for P(4)∕4 eruption or formation. Mubhammys is very similar in dental morphology to Birkamys, and also shows no evidence for P(4)∕4 formation or eruption, but is considerably larger. Though parsimony analysis with all characters equally weighted places Birkamys and Mubhammys as sister taxa of extant Thryonomys to the exclusion of much younger relatives of that genus, all other methods (standard Bayesian inference, Bayesian "tip-dating," and parsimony analysis with scaled transitions between "fixed" and polymorphic states) place these species in more basal positions within Hystricognathi, as sister taxa of Oligocene-to-Recent phiomorphs. We also employ tip-dating as a means for estimating the ages of early hystricognath-bearing localities, many of which are not well-constrained by geological, geochronological, or biostratigraphic evidence. By simultaneously taking into account phylogeny, evolutionary rates, and uniform priors that appropriately encompass the range of possible ages for fossil localities, dating of tips in this Bayesian framework allows paleontologists to move beyond vague and assumption-laden "stage of evolution" arguments in biochronology to provide relatively rigorous age assessments of poorly-constrained faunas. This approach should become increasingly robust as estimates are combined from multiple independent analyses of distantly related clades, and is broadly applicable across the tree of life; as such it is deserving of paleontologists' close attention. Notably, in the example provided here, hystricognathous rodents from Libya and Namibia that are controversially considered to be of middle Eocene age are instead estimated to be of late Eocene and late Oligocene age, respectively. Finally, we reconstruct the evolution of first lower molar size among Paleogene African hystricognaths using a Bayesian approach; the results of this analysis reconstruct a rapid latest Eocene dwarfing event along the lineage leading to Birkamys.

A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A. G.

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are…

Molecular diversity and evolutionary history of rabies virus strains circulating in the Balkans.

PubMed

McElhinney, L M; Marston, D A; Freuling, C M; Cragg, W; Stankov, S; Lalosevic, D; Lalosevic, V; Müller, T; Fooks, A R

2011-09-01

Molecular studies of European classical rabies viruses (RABV) have revealed a number of geographically clustered lineages. To study the diversity of Balkan RABV, partial nucleoprotein (N) gene sequences were analysed from a unique panel of isolates (n = 210), collected from various hosts between 1972 and 2006. All of the Balkan isolates grouped within the European/Middle East Lineage, with the majority most closely related to East European strains. A number of RABV from Bosnia & Herzegovina and Montenegro, collected between 1986 and 2006, grouped with the West European strains, believed to be responsible for the rabies epizootic that spread throughout Europe in the latter half of the 20th Century. In contrast, no Serbian RABV belonged to this sublineage. However, a distinct group of Serbian fox RABV provided further evidence for the southwards wildlife-mediated movement of rabies from Hungary, Romania and Serbia into Bulgaria. To determine the optimal region for evolutionary analysis, partial, full and concatenated N-gene and glycoprotein (G) gene sequences were compared. Whilst both the divergence times and evolutionary rates were similar irrespective of genomic region, the 95 % highest probability density (HPD) limits were significantly reduced for full N-gene and concatenated NG-gene sequences compared with partial gene sequences. Bayesian coalescent analysis estimated the date of the most common recent ancestor of the Balkan RABV to be 1885 (95 % HPD, 1852-1913), and skyline plots suggested an expansion of the local viral population in 1980-1990, which coincides with the observed emergence of fox rabies in the region.

Iterative Calibration: A Novel Approach for Calibrating the Molecular Clock Using Complex Geological Events.

PubMed

Loeza-Quintana, Tzitziki; Adamowicz, Sarah J

2018-02-01

During the past 50 years, the molecular clock has become one of the main tools for providing a time scale for the history of life. In the era of robust molecular evolutionary analysis, clock calibration is still one of the most basic steps needing attention. When fossil records are limited, well-dated geological events are the main resource for calibration. However, biogeographic calibrations have often been used in a simplistic manner, for example assuming simultaneous vicariant divergence of multiple sister lineages. Here, we propose a novel iterative calibration approach to define the most appropriate calibration date by seeking congruence between the dates assigned to multiple allopatric divergences and the geological history. Exploring patterns of molecular divergence in 16 trans-Bering sister clades of echinoderms, we demonstrate that the iterative calibration is predominantly advantageous when using complex geological or climatological events-such as the opening/reclosure of the Bering Strait-providing a powerful tool for clock dating that can be applied to other biogeographic calibration systems and further taxa. Using Bayesian analysis, we observed that evolutionary rate variability in the COI-5P gene is generally distributed in a clock-like fashion for Northern echinoderms. The results reveal a large range of genetic divergences, consistent with multiple pulses of trans-Bering migrations. A resulting rate of 2.8% pairwise Kimura-2-parameter sequence divergence per million years is suggested for the COI-5P gene in Northern echinoderms. Given that molecular rates may vary across latitudes and taxa, this study provides a new context for dating the evolutionary history of Arctic marine life.

Bayesian data analysis in population ecology: motivations, methods, and benefits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert

2016-01-01

During the 20th century ecologists largely relied on the frequentist system of inference for the analysis of their data. However, in the past few decades ecologists have become increasingly interested in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this article I provide guidance to ecologists who would like to decide whether Bayesian methods can be used to improve their conclusions and predictions. I begin by providing a concise summary of Bayesian methods of analysis, including a comparison of differences between Bayesian and frequentist approaches to inference when using hierarchical models. Next I provide a list of problems where Bayesian methods of analysis may arguably be preferred over frequentist methods. These problems are usually encountered in analyses based on hierarchical models of data. I describe the essentials required for applying modern methods of Bayesian computation, and I use real-world examples to illustrate these methods. I conclude by summarizing what I perceive to be the main strengths and weaknesses of using Bayesian methods to solve ecological inference problems.

Evolutionary change in physiological phenotypes along the human lineage

PubMed Central

Vining, Alexander Q.; Nunn, Charles L.

2016-01-01

Background and Objectives: Research in evolutionary medicine provides many examples of how evolution has shaped human susceptibility to disease. Traits undergoing rapid evolutionary change may result in associated costs or reduce the energy available to other traits. We hypothesize that humans have experienced more such changes than other primates as a result of major evolutionary change along the human lineage. We investigated 41 physiological traits across 50 primate species to identify traits that have undergone marked evolutionary change along the human lineage. Methodology: We analysed the data using two Bayesian phylogenetic comparative methods. One approach models trait covariation in non-human primates and predicts human phenotypes to identify whether humans are evolutionary outliers. The other approach models adaptive shifts under an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model of evolution to assess whether inferred shifts are more common on the human branch than on other primate lineages. Results: We identified four traits with strong evidence for an evolutionary increase on the human lineage (amylase, haematocrit, phosphorus and monocytes) and one trait with strong evidence for decrease (neutrophilic bands). Humans exhibited more cases of distinct evolutionary change than other primates. Conclusions and Implications: Human physiology has undergone increased evolutionary change compared to other primates. Long distance running may have contributed to increases in haematocrit and mean corpuscular haemoglobin concentration, while dietary changes are likely related to increases in amylase. In accordance with the pathogen load hypothesis, human monocyte levels were increased, but many other immune-related measures were not. Determining the mechanisms underlying conspicuous evolutionary change in these traits may provide new insights into human disease. PMID:27615376

Revealing Less Derived Nature of Cartilaginous Fish Genomes with Their Evolutionary Time Scale Inferred with Nuclear Genes

PubMed Central

Renz, Adina J.; Meyer, Axel; Kuraku, Shigehiro

2013-01-01

Cartilaginous fishes, divided into Holocephali (chimaeras) and Elasmoblanchii (sharks, rays and skates), occupy a key phylogenetic position among extant vertebrates in reconstructing their evolutionary processes. Their accurate evolutionary time scale is indispensable for better understanding of the relationship between phenotypic and molecular evolution of cartilaginous fishes. However, our current knowledge on the time scale of cartilaginous fish evolution largely relies on estimates using mitochondrial DNA sequences. In this study, making the best use of the still partial, but large-scale sequencing data of cartilaginous fish species, we estimate the divergence times between the major cartilaginous fish lineages employing nuclear genes. By rigorous orthology assessment based on available genomic and transcriptomic sequence resources for cartilaginous fishes, we selected 20 protein-coding genes in the nuclear genome, spanning 2973 amino acid residues. Our analysis based on the Bayesian inference resulted in the mean divergence time of 421 Ma, the late Silurian, for the Holocephali-Elasmobranchii split, and 306 Ma, the late Carboniferous, for the split between sharks and rays/skates. By applying these results and other documented divergence times, we measured the relative evolutionary rate of the Hox A cluster sequences in the cartilaginous fish lineages, which resulted in a lower substitution rate with a factor of at least 2.4 in comparison to tetrapod lineages. The obtained time scale enables mapping phenotypic and molecular changes in a quantitative framework. It is of great interest to corroborate the less derived nature of cartilaginous fish at the molecular level as a genome-wide phenomenon. PMID:23825540

Revealing less derived nature of cartilaginous fish genomes with their evolutionary time scale inferred with nuclear genes.

PubMed

Renz, Adina J; Meyer, Axel; Kuraku, Shigehiro

2013-01-01

Cartilaginous fishes, divided into Holocephali (chimaeras) and Elasmoblanchii (sharks, rays and skates), occupy a key phylogenetic position among extant vertebrates in reconstructing their evolutionary processes. Their accurate evolutionary time scale is indispensable for better understanding of the relationship between phenotypic and molecular evolution of cartilaginous fishes. However, our current knowledge on the time scale of cartilaginous fish evolution largely relies on estimates using mitochondrial DNA sequences. In this study, making the best use of the still partial, but large-scale sequencing data of cartilaginous fish species, we estimate the divergence times between the major cartilaginous fish lineages employing nuclear genes. By rigorous orthology assessment based on available genomic and transcriptomic sequence resources for cartilaginous fishes, we selected 20 protein-coding genes in the nuclear genome, spanning 2973 amino acid residues. Our analysis based on the Bayesian inference resulted in the mean divergence time of 421 Ma, the late Silurian, for the Holocephali-Elasmobranchii split, and 306 Ma, the late Carboniferous, for the split between sharks and rays/skates. By applying these results and other documented divergence times, we measured the relative evolutionary rate of the Hox A cluster sequences in the cartilaginous fish lineages, which resulted in a lower substitution rate with a factor of at least 2.4 in comparison to tetrapod lineages. The obtained time scale enables mapping phenotypic and molecular changes in a quantitative framework. It is of great interest to corroborate the less derived nature of cartilaginous fish at the molecular level as a genome-wide phenomenon.

Ecological divergence and evolutionary transition of resprouting types in Banksia attenuata.

PubMed

He, Tianhua

2014-08-01

Resprouting is a key functional trait that allows plants to survive diverse disturbances. The fitness benefits associated with resprouting include a rapid return to adult growth, early flowering, and setting seed. The resprouting responses observed following fire are varied, as are the ecological outcomes. Understanding the ecological divergence and evolutionary pathways of different resprouting types and how the environment and genetics interact to drive such morphological evolution represents an important, but under-studied, topic. In the present study, microsatellite markers and microevolutionary approaches were used to better understand: (1) whether genetic differentiation is related to morphological divergence among resprouting types and if so, whether there are any specific genetic variations associated with morphological divergence and (2) the evolutionary pathway of the transitions between two resprouting types in Banksia attenuata (epicormic resprouting from aerial stems or branch; resprouting from a underground lignotuber). The results revealed an association between population genetic differentiation and the morphological divergence of postfire resprouting types in B. attenuata. A microsatellite allele has been shown to be associated with epicormic populations. Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis revealed a likely evolutionary transition from epicormic to lignotuberous resprouting in B. attenuata. It is concluded that the postfire resprouting type in B. attenuata is likely determined by the fire's characteristics. The differentiated expression of postfire resprouting types in different environments is likely a consequence of local genetic adaptation. The capacity to shift the postfire resprouting type to adapt to diverse fire regimes is most likely the key factor explaining why B. attenuata is the most widespread member of the Banksia genus.

Evolutionary model selection and parameter estimation for protein-protein interaction network based on differential evolution algorithm

PubMed Central

Huang, Lei; Liao, Li; Wu, Cathy H.

2016-01-01

Revealing the underlying evolutionary mechanism plays an important role in understanding protein interaction networks in the cell. While many evolutionary models have been proposed, the problem about applying these models to real network data, especially for differentiating which model can better describe evolutionary process for the observed network urgently remains as a challenge. The traditional way is to use a model with presumed parameters to generate a network, and then evaluate the fitness by summary statistics, which however cannot capture the complete network structures information and estimate parameter distribution. In this work we developed a novel method based on Approximate Bayesian Computation and modified Differential Evolution (ABC-DEP) that is capable of conducting model selection and parameter estimation simultaneously and detecting the underlying evolutionary mechanisms more accurately. We tested our method for its power in differentiating models and estimating parameters on the simulated data and found significant improvement in performance benchmark, as compared with a previous method. We further applied our method to real data of protein interaction networks in human and yeast. Our results show Duplication Attachment model as the predominant evolutionary mechanism for human PPI networks and Scale-Free model as the predominant mechanism for yeast PPI networks. PMID:26357273

Diversity Dynamics in Nymphalidae Butterflies: Effect of Phylogenetic Uncertainty on Diversification Rate Shift Estimates

PubMed Central

Peña, Carlos; Espeland, Marianne

2015-01-01

The species rich butterfly family Nymphalidae has been used to study evolutionary interactions between plants and insects. Theories of insect-hostplant dynamics predict accelerated diversification due to key innovations. In evolutionary biology, analysis of maximum credibility trees in the software MEDUSA (modelling evolutionary diversity using stepwise AIC) is a popular method for estimation of shifts in diversification rates. We investigated whether phylogenetic uncertainty can produce different results by extending the method across a random sample of trees from the posterior distribution of a Bayesian run. Using the MultiMEDUSA approach, we found that phylogenetic uncertainty greatly affects diversification rate estimates. Different trees produced diversification rates ranging from high values to almost zero for the same clade, and both significant rate increase and decrease in some clades. Only four out of 18 significant shifts found on the maximum clade credibility tree were consistent across most of the sampled trees. Among these, we found accelerated diversification for Ithomiini butterflies. We used the binary speciation and extinction model (BiSSE) and found that a hostplant shift to Solanaceae is correlated with increased net diversification rates in Ithomiini, congruent with the diffuse cospeciation hypothesis. Our results show that taking phylogenetic uncertainty into account when estimating net diversification rate shifts is of great importance, as very different results can be obtained when using the maximum clade credibility tree and other trees from the posterior distribution. PMID:25830910

Diversity dynamics in Nymphalidae butterflies: effect of phylogenetic uncertainty on diversification rate shift estimates.

PubMed

Peña, Carlos; Espeland, Marianne

2015-01-01

The species rich butterfly family Nymphalidae has been used to study evolutionary interactions between plants and insects. Theories of insect-hostplant dynamics predict accelerated diversification due to key innovations. In evolutionary biology, analysis of maximum credibility trees in the software MEDUSA (modelling evolutionary diversity using stepwise AIC) is a popular method for estimation of shifts in diversification rates. We investigated whether phylogenetic uncertainty can produce different results by extending the method across a random sample of trees from the posterior distribution of a Bayesian run. Using the MultiMEDUSA approach, we found that phylogenetic uncertainty greatly affects diversification rate estimates. Different trees produced diversification rates ranging from high values to almost zero for the same clade, and both significant rate increase and decrease in some clades. Only four out of 18 significant shifts found on the maximum clade credibility tree were consistent across most of the sampled trees. Among these, we found accelerated diversification for Ithomiini butterflies. We used the binary speciation and extinction model (BiSSE) and found that a hostplant shift to Solanaceae is correlated with increased net diversification rates in Ithomiini, congruent with the diffuse cospeciation hypothesis. Our results show that taking phylogenetic uncertainty into account when estimating net diversification rate shifts is of great importance, as very different results can be obtained when using the maximum clade credibility tree and other trees from the posterior distribution.

Bayesian Analysis of Evolutionary Divergence with Genomic Data under Diverse Demographic Models.

PubMed

Chung, Yujin; Hey, Jody

2017-06-01

We present a new Bayesian method for estimating demographic and phylogenetic history using population genomic data. Several key innovations are introduced that allow the study of diverse models within an Isolation-with-Migration framework. The new method implements a 2-step analysis, with an initial Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) phase that samples simple coalescent trees, followed by the calculation of the joint posterior density for the parameters of a demographic model. In step 1, the MCMC sampling phase, the method uses a reduced state space, consisting of coalescent trees without migration paths, and a simple importance sampling distribution without the demography of interest. Once obtained, a single sample of trees can be used in step 2 to calculate the joint posterior density for model parameters under multiple diverse demographic models, without having to repeat MCMC runs. Because migration paths are not included in the state space of the MCMC phase, but rather are handled by analytic integration in step 2 of the analysis, the method is scalable to a large number of loci with excellent MCMC mixing properties. With an implementation of the new method in the computer program MIST, we demonstrate the method's accuracy, scalability, and other advantages using simulated data and DNA sequences of two common chimpanzee subspecies: Pan troglodytes (P. t.) troglodytes and P. t. verus. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective.

PubMed

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

In the practice of data analysis, there is a conceptual distinction between hypothesis testing, on the one hand, and estimation with quantified uncertainty on the other. Among frequentists in psychology, a shift of emphasis from hypothesis testing to estimation has been dubbed "the New Statistics" (Cumming 2014). A second conceptual distinction is between frequentist methods and Bayesian methods. Our main goal in this article is to explain how Bayesian methods achieve the goals of the New Statistics better than frequentist methods. The article reviews frequentist and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and to estimation with confidence or credible intervals. The article also describes Bayesian approaches to meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials, and power analysis.

Adaptive evolution of Mediterranean pines.

PubMed

Grivet, Delphine; Climent, José; Zabal-Aguirre, Mario; Neale, David B; Vendramin, Giovanni G; González-Martínez, Santiago C

2013-09-01

Mediterranean pines represent an extremely heterogeneous assembly. Although they have evolved under similar environmental conditions, they diversified long ago, ca. 10 Mya, and present distinct biogeographic and demographic histories. Therefore, it is of special interest to understand whether and to what extent they have developed specific strategies of adaptive evolution through time and space. To explore evolutionary patterns, the Mediterranean pines' phylogeny was first reconstructed analyzing a new set of 21 low-copy nuclear genes with multilocus Bayesian tree reconstruction methods. Secondly, a phylogenetic approach was used to search for footprints of natural selection and to examine the evolution of multiple phenotypic traits. We identified two genes (involved in pines' defense and stress responses) that have likely played a role in the adaptation of Mediterranean pines to their environment. Moreover, few life-history traits showed historical or evolutionary adaptive convergence in Mediterranean lineages, while patterns of character evolution revealed various evolutionary trade-offs linking growth-development, reproduction and fire-related traits. Assessing the evolutionary path of important life-history traits, as well as the genomic basis of adaptive variation is central to understanding the past evolutionary success of Mediterranean pines and their future response to environmental changes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fully Bayesian tests of neutrality using genealogical summary statistics.

PubMed

Drummond, Alexei J; Suchard, Marc A

2008-10-31

Many data summary statistics have been developed to detect departures from neutral expectations of evolutionary models. However questions about the neutrality of the evolution of genetic loci within natural populations remain difficult to assess. One critical cause of this difficulty is that most methods for testing neutrality make simplifying assumptions simultaneously about the mutational model and the population size model. Consequentially, rejecting the null hypothesis of neutrality under these methods could result from violations of either or both assumptions, making interpretation troublesome. Here we harness posterior predictive simulation to exploit summary statistics of both the data and model parameters to test the goodness-of-fit of standard models of evolution. We apply the method to test the selective neutrality of molecular evolution in non-recombining gene genealogies and we demonstrate the utility of our method on four real data sets, identifying significant departures of neutrality in human influenza A virus, even after controlling for variation in population size. Importantly, by employing a full model-based Bayesian analysis, our method separates the effects of demography from the effects of selection. The method also allows multiple summary statistics to be used in concert, thus potentially increasing sensitivity. Furthermore, our method remains useful in situations where analytical expectations and variances of summary statistics are not available. This aspect has great potential for the analysis of temporally spaced data, an expanding area previously ignored for limited availability of theory and methods.

Luria-Delbrück, revisited: the classic experiment does not rule out Lamarckian evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, Caroline M.; Ghafari, Mahan; Abbas, Anzar; Saravanan, Varun; Nemenman, Ilya

2017-10-01

We re-examined data from the classic Luria-Delbrück fluctuation experiment, which is often credited with establishing a Darwinian basis for evolution. We argue that, for the Lamarckian model of evolution to be ruled out by the experiment, the experiment must favor pure Darwinian evolution over both the Lamarckian model and a model that allows both Darwinian and Lamarckian mechanisms (as would happen for bacteria with CRISPR-Cas immunity). Analysis of the combined model was not performed in the original 1943 paper. The Luria-Delbrück paper also did not consider the possibility of neither model fitting the experiment. Using Bayesian model selection, we find that the Luria-Delbrück experiment, indeed, favors the Darwinian evolution over purely Lamarckian. However, our analysis does not rule out the combined model, and hence cannot rule out Lamarckian contributions to the evolutionary dynamics.

Luria-Delbrück, revisited: the classic experiment does not rule out Lamarckian evolution.

PubMed

Holmes, Caroline M; Ghafari, Mahan; Abbas, Anzar; Saravanan, Varun; Nemenman, Ilya

2017-08-21

We re-examined data from the classic Luria-Delbrück fluctuation experiment, which is often credited with establishing a Darwinian basis for evolution. We argue that, for the Lamarckian model of evolution to be ruled out by the experiment, the experiment must favor pure Darwinian evolution over both the Lamarckian model and a model that allows both Darwinian and Lamarckian mechanisms (as would happen for bacteria with CRISPR-Cas immunity). Analysis of the combined model was not performed in the original 1943 paper. The Luria-Delbrück paper also did not consider the possibility of neither model fitting the experiment. Using Bayesian model selection, we find that the Luria-Delbrück experiment, indeed, favors the Darwinian evolution over purely Lamarckian. However, our analysis does not rule out the combined model, and hence cannot rule out Lamarckian contributions to the evolutionary dynamics.

Is probabilistic bias analysis approximately Bayesian?

PubMed Central

MacLehose, Richard F.; Gustafson, Paul

2011-01-01

Case-control studies are particularly susceptible to differential exposure misclassification when exposure status is determined following incident case status. Probabilistic bias analysis methods have been developed as ways to adjust standard effect estimates based on the sensitivity and specificity of exposure misclassification. The iterative sampling method advocated in probabilistic bias analysis bears a distinct resemblance to a Bayesian adjustment; however, it is not identical. Furthermore, without a formal theoretical framework (Bayesian or frequentist), the results of a probabilistic bias analysis remain somewhat difficult to interpret. We describe, both theoretically and empirically, the extent to which probabilistic bias analysis can be viewed as approximately Bayesian. While the differences between probabilistic bias analysis and Bayesian approaches to misclassification can be substantial, these situations often involve unrealistic prior specifications and are relatively easy to detect. Outside of these special cases, probabilistic bias analysis and Bayesian approaches to exposure misclassification in case-control studies appear to perform equally well. PMID:22157311

Bayesian Mediation Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

2009-01-01

In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

Evolutionary Inference across Eukaryotes Identifies Specific Pressures Favoring Mitochondrial Gene Retention.

PubMed

Johnston, Iain G; Williams, Ben P

2016-02-24

Since their endosymbiotic origin, mitochondria have lost most of their genes. Although many selective mechanisms underlying the evolution of mitochondrial genomes have been proposed, a data-driven exploration of these hypotheses is lacking, and a quantitatively supported consensus remains absent. We developed HyperTraPS, a methodology coupling stochastic modeling with Bayesian inference, to identify the ordering of evolutionary events and suggest their causes. Using 2015 complete mitochondrial genomes, we inferred evolutionary trajectories of mtDNA gene loss across the eukaryotic tree of life. We find that proteins comprising the structural cores of the electron transport chain are preferentially encoded within mitochondrial genomes across eukaryotes. A combination of high GC content and high protein hydrophobicity is required to explain patterns of mtDNA gene retention; a model that accounts for these selective pressures can also predict the success of artificial gene transfer experiments in vivo. This work provides a general method for data-driven inference of the ordering of evolutionary and progressive events, here identifying the distinct features shaping mitochondrial genomes of present-day species. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Accounting for rate variation among lineages in comparative demographic analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hope, Andrew G.; Ho, Simon Y. W.; Malaney, Jason L.; Cook, Joseph A.; Talbot, Sandra L.

2014-01-01

Genetic analyses of contemporary populations can be used to estimate the demographic histories of species within an ecological community. Comparison of these demographic histories can shed light on community responses to past climatic events. However, species experience different rates of molecular evolution, and this presents a major obstacle to comparative demographic analyses. We address this problem by using a Bayesian relaxed-clock method to estimate the relative evolutionary rates of 22 small mammal taxa distributed across northwestern North America. We found that estimates of the relative molecular substitution rate for each taxon were consistent across the range of sampling schemes that we compared. Using three different reference rates, we rescaled the relative rates so that they could be used to estimate absolute evolutionary timescales. Accounting for rate variation among taxa led to temporal shifts in our skyline-plot estimates of demographic history, highlighting both uniform and idiosyncratic evolutionary responses to directional climate trends for distinct ecological subsets of the small mammal community. Our approach can be used in evolutionary analyses of populations from multiple species, including comparative demographic studies.

Prior approval: the growth of Bayesian methods in psychology.

PubMed

Andrews, Mark; Baguley, Thom

2013-02-01

Within the last few years, Bayesian methods of data analysis in psychology have proliferated. In this paper, we briefly review the history or the Bayesian approach to statistics, and consider the implications that Bayesian methods have for the theory and practice of data analysis in psychology.

ESS++: a C++ objected-oriented algorithm for Bayesian stochastic search model exploration

PubMed Central

Bottolo, Leonardo; Langley, Sarah R.; Petretto, Enrico; Tiret, Laurence; Tregouet, David; Richardson, Sylvia

2011-01-01

Summary: ESS++ is a C++ implementation of a fully Bayesian variable selection approach for single and multiple response linear regression. ESS++ works well both when the number of observations is larger than the number of predictors and in the ‘large p, small n’ case. In the current version, ESS++ can handle several hundred observations, thousands of predictors and a few responses simultaneously. The core engine of ESS++ for the selection of relevant predictors is based on Evolutionary Monte Carlo. Our implementation is open source, allowing community-based alterations and improvements. Availability: C++ source code and documentation including compilation instructions are available under GNU licence at http://bgx.org.uk/software/ESS.html. Contact: l.bottolo@imperial.ac.uk Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:21233165

Towards a unification of evolutionary dynamics. Comment on "Answering Schrödinger's question: A free-energy formulation" by Maxwell James Désormeau Ramstead et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, John O.

2018-03-01

In 2006 Karl Friston introduced the free energy principle (FEP) to neuroscience as a unifying concept [1]. This proposal, along with its use in developing the 'Bayesian Brain' formulation quickly gained traction and a 2008 feature article in New Scientist heralded it as providing a promising unified theory of the brain [2]:

The role of peripheral endemism in species diversification: evidence from the coral reef fish genus Anampses (Family: Labridae).

PubMed

Hodge, Jennifer R; Read, Charmaine I; van Herwerden, Lynne; Bellwood, David R

2012-02-01

We examined how peripherally isolated endemic species may have contributed to the biodiversity of the Indo-Australian Archipelago biodiversity hotspot by reconstructing the evolutionary history of the wrasse genus Anampses. We identified three alternate models of diversification: the vicariance-based 'successive division' model, and the dispersal-based 'successive colonisation' and 'peripheral budding' models. The genus was well suited for this study given its relatively high proportion (42%) of endemic species, its reasonably low diversity (12 species), which permitted complete taxon sampling, and its widespread tropical Indo-Pacific distribution. Monophyly of the genus was strongly supported by three phylogenetic analyses: maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference based on mitochondrial CO1 and 12S rRNA and nuclear S7 sequences. Estimates of species divergence times from fossil-calibrated Bayesian inference suggest that Anampses arose in the mid-Eocene and subsequently diversified throughout the Miocene. Evolutionary relationships within the genus, combined with limited spatial and temporal concordance among endemics, offer support for all three alternate models of diversification. Our findings emphasise the importance of peripherally isolated locations in creating and maintaining endemic species and their contribution to the biodiversity of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study is to explore Bayesian model averaging in the propensity score context. Previous research on Bayesian propensity score analysis does not take into account model uncertainty. In this regard, an internally consistent Bayesian framework for model building and estimation must also account for model uncertainty. The…

Evolutionary change in physiological phenotypes along the human lineage.

PubMed

Vining, Alexander Q; Nunn, Charles L

2016-01-01

Research in evolutionary medicine provides many examples of how evolution has shaped human susceptibility to disease. Traits undergoing rapid evolutionary change may result in associated costs or reduce the energy available to other traits. We hypothesize that humans have experienced more such changes than other primates as a result of major evolutionary change along the human lineage. We investigated 41 physiological traits across 50 primate species to identify traits that have undergone marked evolutionary change along the human lineage. We analysed the data using two Bayesian phylogenetic comparative methods. One approach models trait covariation in non-human primates and predicts human phenotypes to identify whether humans are evolutionary outliers. The other approach models adaptive shifts under an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model of evolution to assess whether inferred shifts are more common on the human branch than on other primate lineages. We identified four traits with strong evidence for an evolutionary increase on the human lineage (amylase, haematocrit, phosphorus and monocytes) and one trait with strong evidence for decrease (neutrophilic bands). Humans exhibited more cases of distinct evolutionary change than other primates. Human physiology has undergone increased evolutionary change compared to other primates. Long distance running may have contributed to increases in haematocrit and mean corpuscular haemoglobin concentration, while dietary changes are likely related to increases in amylase. In accordance with the pathogen load hypothesis, human monocyte levels were increased, but many other immune-related measures were not. Determining the mechanisms underlying conspicuous evolutionary change in these traits may provide new insights into human disease. The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Foundation for Evolution, Medicine, and Public Health.

Bayesian analyses of time-interval data for environmental radiation monitoring.

PubMed

Luo, Peng; Sharp, Julia L; DeVol, Timothy A

2013-01-01

Time-interval (time difference between two consecutive pulses) analysis based on the principles of Bayesian inference was investigated for online radiation monitoring. Using experimental and simulated data, Bayesian analysis of time-interval data [Bayesian (ti)] was compared with Bayesian and a conventional frequentist analysis of counts in a fixed count time [Bayesian (cnt) and single interval test (SIT), respectively]. The performances of the three methods were compared in terms of average run length (ARL) and detection probability for several simulated detection scenarios. Experimental data were acquired with a DGF-4C system in list mode. Simulated data were obtained using Monte Carlo techniques to obtain a random sampling of the Poisson distribution. All statistical algorithms were developed using the R Project for statistical computing. Bayesian analysis of time-interval information provided a similar detection probability as Bayesian analysis of count information, but the authors were able to make a decision with fewer pulses at relatively higher radiation levels. In addition, for the cases with very short presence of the source (< count time), time-interval information is more sensitive to detect a change than count information since the source data is averaged by the background data over the entire count time. The relationships of the source time, change points, and modifications to the Bayesian approach for increasing detection probability are presented.

Comparative and Evolutionary Analysis of the HES/HEY Gene Family Reveal Exon/Intron Loss and Teleost Specific Duplication Events

PubMed Central

Ma, Zhaowu; Zhou, Yang; Abbood, Nibras Najm; Liu, Jianfeng; Su, Li; Jia, Haibo; Guo, An-Yuan

2012-01-01

Background HES/HEY genes encode a family of basic helix-loop-helix (bHLH) transcription factors with both bHLH and Orange domain. HES/HEY proteins are direct targets of the Notch signaling pathway and play an essential role in developmental decisions, such as the developments of nervous system, somitogenesis, blood vessel and heart. Despite their important functions, the origin and evolution of this HES/HEY gene family has yet to be elucidated. Methods and Findings In this study, we identified genes of the HES/HEY family in representative species and performed evolutionary analysis to elucidate their origin and evolutionary process. Our results showed that the HES/HEY genes only existed in metazoans and may originate from the common ancestor of metazoans. We identified HES/HEY genes in more than 10 species representing the main lineages. Combining the bHLH and Orange domain sequences, we constructed the phylogenetic trees by different methods (Bayesian, ML, NJ and ME) and classified the HES/HEY gene family into four groups. Our results indicated that this gene family had undergone three expansions, which were along with the origins of Eumetazoa, vertebrate, and teleost. Gene structure analysis revealed that the HES/HEY genes were involved in exon and/or intron loss in different species lineages. Genes of this family were duplicated in bony fishes and doubled than other vertebrates. Furthermore, we studied the teleost-specific duplications in zebrafish and investigated the expression pattern of duplicated genes in different tissues by RT-PCR. Finally, we proposed a model to show the evolution of this gene family with processes of expansion, exon/intron loss, and motif loss. Conclusions Our study revealed the evolution of HES/HEY gene family, the expression and function divergence of duplicated genes, which also provide clues for the research of Notch function in development. This study shows a model of gene family analysis with gene structure evolution and duplication. PMID:22808219

Comparative and evolutionary analysis of the HES/HEY gene family reveal exon/intron loss and teleost specific duplication events.

PubMed

Zhou, Mi; Yan, Jun; Ma, Zhaowu; Zhou, Yang; Abbood, Nibras Najm; Liu, Jianfeng; Su, Li; Jia, Haibo; Guo, An-Yuan

2012-01-01

HES/HEY genes encode a family of basic helix-loop-helix (bHLH) transcription factors with both bHLH and Orange domain. HES/HEY proteins are direct targets of the Notch signaling pathway and play an essential role in developmental decisions, such as the developments of nervous system, somitogenesis, blood vessel and heart. Despite their important functions, the origin and evolution of this HES/HEY gene family has yet to be elucidated. In this study, we identified genes of the HES/HEY family in representative species and performed evolutionary analysis to elucidate their origin and evolutionary process. Our results showed that the HES/HEY genes only existed in metazoans and may originate from the common ancestor of metazoans. We identified HES/HEY genes in more than 10 species representing the main lineages. Combining the bHLH and Orange domain sequences, we constructed the phylogenetic trees by different methods (Bayesian, ML, NJ and ME) and classified the HES/HEY gene family into four groups. Our results indicated that this gene family had undergone three expansions, which were along with the origins of Eumetazoa, vertebrate, and teleost. Gene structure analysis revealed that the HES/HEY genes were involved in exon and/or intron loss in different species lineages. Genes of this family were duplicated in bony fishes and doubled than other vertebrates. Furthermore, we studied the teleost-specific duplications in zebrafish and investigated the expression pattern of duplicated genes in different tissues by RT-PCR. Finally, we proposed a model to show the evolution of this gene family with processes of expansion, exon/intron loss, and motif loss. Our study revealed the evolution of HES/HEY gene family, the expression and function divergence of duplicated genes, which also provide clues for the research of Notch function in development. This study shows a model of gene family analysis with gene structure evolution and duplication.

Comprehensive evolutionary analysis of the Anthroherpon radiation (Coleoptera, Leiodidae, Leptodirini).

PubMed

Njunjić, Iva; Perrard, Adrien; Hendriks, Kasper; Schilthuizen, Menno; Perreau, Michel; Merckx, Vincent; Baylac, Michel; Deharveng, Louis

2018-01-01

The genus Anthroherpon Reitter, 1889 exhibits the most pronounced troglomorphic characters among Coleoptera, and represents one of the most spectacular radiations of subterranean beetles. However, radiation, diversification, and biogeography of this genus have never been studied in a phylogenetic context. This study provides a comprehensive evolutionary analysis of the Anthroherpon radiation, using a dated molecular phylogeny as a framework for understanding Anthroherpon diversification, reconstructing the ancestral range, and exploring troglomorphic diversity. Based on 16 species and 22 subspecies, i.e. the majority of Anthroherpon diversity, we reconstructed the phylogeny using Bayesian analysis of six loci, both mitochondrial and nuclear, comprising a total of 4143 nucleotides. In parallel, a morphometric analysis was carried out with 79 landmarks on the body that were subjected to geometric morphometrics. We optimized morphometric features to phylogeny, in order to recognize the way troglomorphy was expressed in different clades of the tree, and did character evolution analyses. Finally, we reconstructed the ancestral range of the genus using BioGeoBEARS. Besides further elucidating the suprageneric classification of the East-Mediterranean Leptodirini, our main findings also show that Anthroherpon dates back to the Early Miocene (ca. 22 MYA) and that the genus diversified entirely underground. Biogeographic reconstruction of the ancestral range shows the origin of the genus in the area comprising three high mountains in western Montenegro, which is in the accordance with the available data on the paleogeography of the Balkan Peninsula. Character evolution analysis indicates that troglomorphic morphometric traits in Anthroherpon mostly evolve neutrally but may diverge adaptively under syntopic competition.

Incorporating prior knowledge induced from stochastic differential equations in the classification of stochastic observations.

PubMed

Zollanvari, Amin; Dougherty, Edward R

2016-12-01

In classification, prior knowledge is incorporated in a Bayesian framework by assuming that the feature-label distribution belongs to an uncertainty class of feature-label distributions governed by a prior distribution. A posterior distribution is then derived from the prior and the sample data. An optimal Bayesian classifier (OBC) minimizes the expected misclassification error relative to the posterior distribution. From an application perspective, prior construction is critical. The prior distribution is formed by mapping a set of mathematical relations among the features and labels, the prior knowledge, into a distribution governing the probability mass across the uncertainty class. In this paper, we consider prior knowledge in the form of stochastic differential equations (SDEs). We consider a vector SDE in integral form involving a drift vector and dispersion matrix. Having constructed the prior, we develop the optimal Bayesian classifier between two models and examine, via synthetic experiments, the effects of uncertainty in the drift vector and dispersion matrix. We apply the theory to a set of SDEs for the purpose of differentiating the evolutionary history between two species.

The phylodynamics of the rabies virus in the Russian Federation

PubMed Central

Lukashev, Alexander N.; Poleshchuk, Elena M.; Dedkov, Vladimir G.; Tkachev, Sergey E.; Sidorov, Gennadiy N.; Karganova, Galina G.; Galkina, Irina V.; Shchelkanov, Mikhail Yu.; Shipulin, German A.

2017-01-01

Near complete rabies virus N gene sequences (1,110 nt) were determined for 82 isolates obtained from different regions of Russia between 2008 and 2016. These sequences were analyzed together with 108 representative GenBank sequences from 1977–2016 using the Bayesian coalescent approach. The timing of the major evolutionary events was estimated. Most of the isolates represented the steppe rabies virus group C, which was found over a vast geographic region from Central Russia to Mongolia and split into three groups (C0-C2) with discrete geographic prevalence. A single strain of the steppe rabies virus lineage was isolated in the far eastern part of Russia (Primorsky Krai), likely as a result of a recent anthropogenic introduction. For the first time the polar rabies virus group A2, previously reported in Alaska, was described in the northern part of European Russia and at the Franz Josef Land. Phylogenetic analysis suggested that all currently circulating rabies virus groups in the Russian Federation were introduced within the few last centuries, with most of the groups spreading in the 20th century. The dating of evolutionary events was highly concordant with the historical epidemiological data. PMID:28225771

Inferring 'weak spots' in phylogenetic trees: application to mosasauroid nomenclature.

PubMed

Madzia, Daniel; Cau, Andrea

2017-01-01

Mosasauroid squamates represented the apex predators within the Late Cretaceous marine and occasionally also freshwater ecosystems. Proper understanding of the origin of their ecological adaptations or paleobiogeographic dispersals requires adequate knowledge of their phylogeny. The studies assessing the position of mosasauroids on the squamate evolutionary tree and their origins have long given conflicting results. The phylogenetic relationships within Mosasauroidea, however, have experienced only little changes throughout the last decades. Considering the substantial improvements in the development of phylogenetic methodology that have undergone in recent years, resulting, among others, in numerous alterations in the phylogenetic hypotheses of other fossil amniotes, we test the robustness in our understanding of mosasauroid beginnings and their evolutionary history. We re-examined a data set that results from modifications assembled in the course of the last 20 years and performed multiple parsimony analyses and Bayesian tip-dating analysis. Following the inferred topologies and the 'weak spots' in the phylogeny of mosasauroids, we revise the nomenclature of the 'traditionally' recognized mosasauroid clades, to acknowledge the overall weakness among branches and the alternative topologies suggested previously, and discuss several factors that might have an impact on the differing phylogenetic hypotheses and their statistical support.

Mitochondrial genomes of two Australian fishflies with an evolutionary timescale of Chauliodinae.

PubMed

Yang, Fan; Jiang, Yunlan; Yang, Ding; Liu, Xingyue

2017-06-30

Fishflies (Corydalidae: Chauliodinae) with a total of ca. 130 extant species are one of the major groups of the holometabolous insect order Megaloptera. As a group which originated during the Mesozoic, the phylogeny and historical biogeography of fishflies are of high interest. The previous hypothesis on the evolutionary history of fishflies was based primarily on morphological data. To further test the existing phylogenetic relationships and to understand the divergence pattern of fishflies, we conducted a molecule-based study. We determined the complete mitochondrial (mt) genomes of two Australian fishfly species, Archichauliodes deceptor Kimmins, 1954 and Protochauliodes biconicus Kimmins, 1954, both members of a major subgroup of Chauliodinae with high phylogenetic significance. A phylogenomic analysis was carried out based on 13 mt protein coding genes (PCGs) and two rRNAs genes from the megalopteran species with determined mt genomes. Both maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference analyses recovered the Dysmicohermes clade as the sister group of the Archichauliodes clade + the Protochauliodes clade, which is consistent with the previous morphology-based hypothesis. The divergence time estimation suggested that the divergence among the three major subgroups of fishflies occurred during the Late Jurassic and Early Cretaceous when the supercontinent Pangaea was undergoing sequential breakup.

Inferring ‘weak spots’ in phylogenetic trees: application to mosasauroid nomenclature

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Mosasauroid squamates represented the apex predators within the Late Cretaceous marine and occasionally also freshwater ecosystems. Proper understanding of the origin of their ecological adaptations or paleobiogeographic dispersals requires adequate knowledge of their phylogeny. The studies assessing the position of mosasauroids on the squamate evolutionary tree and their origins have long given conflicting results. The phylogenetic relationships within Mosasauroidea, however, have experienced only little changes throughout the last decades. Considering the substantial improvements in the development of phylogenetic methodology that have undergone in recent years, resulting, among others, in numerous alterations in the phylogenetic hypotheses of other fossil amniotes, we test the robustness in our understanding of mosasauroid beginnings and their evolutionary history. We re-examined a data set that results from modifications assembled in the course of the last 20 years and performed multiple parsimony analyses and Bayesian tip-dating analysis. Following the inferred topologies and the ‘weak spots’ in the phylogeny of mosasauroids, we revise the nomenclature of the ‘traditionally’ recognized mosasauroid clades, to acknowledge the overall weakness among branches and the alternative topologies suggested previously, and discuss several factors that might have an impact on the differing phylogenetic hypotheses and their statistical support. PMID:28929018

A SAS Interface for Bayesian Analysis with WinBUGS

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Zhiyong; McArdle, John J.; Wang, Lijuan; Hamagami, Fumiaki

2008-01-01

Bayesian methods are becoming very popular despite some practical difficulties in implementation. To assist in the practical application of Bayesian methods, we show how to implement Bayesian analysis with WinBUGS as part of a standard set of SAS routines. This implementation procedure is first illustrated by fitting a multiple regression model…

A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

PubMed Central

van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B; Neyer, Franz J; van Aken, Marcel AG

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are introduced using a simplified example. Thereafter, the advantages and pitfalls of the specification of prior knowledge are discussed. To illustrate Bayesian methods explained in this study, in a second example a series of studies that examine the theoretical framework of dynamic interactionism are considered. In the Discussion the advantages and disadvantages of using Bayesian statistics are reviewed, and guidelines on how to report on Bayesian statistics are provided. PMID:24116396

APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS TO A LAGRANGIAN PHOTOCHEMICAL AIR QUALITY MODEL. (R824792)

EPA Science Inventory

Uncertainties in ozone concentrations predicted with a Lagrangian photochemical air quality model have been estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) analysis. Bayesian Monte Carlo analysis provides a means of combining subjective "prior" uncertainty estimates developed ...

Ancestral sequence reconstruction in primate mitochondrial DNA: compositional bias and effect on functional inference.

PubMed

Krishnan, Neeraja M; Seligmann, Hervé; Stewart, Caro-Beth; De Koning, A P Jason; Pollock, David D

2004-10-01

Reconstruction of ancestral DNA and amino acid sequences is an important means of inferring information about past evolutionary events. Such reconstructions suggest changes in molecular function and evolutionary processes over the course of evolution and are used to infer adaptation and convergence. Maximum likelihood (ML) is generally thought to provide relatively accurate reconstructed sequences compared to parsimony, but both methods lead to the inference of multiple directional changes in nucleotide frequencies in primate mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). To better understand this surprising result, as well as to better understand how parsimony and ML differ, we constructed a series of computationally simple "conditional pathway" methods that differed in the number of substitutions allowed per site along each branch, and we also evaluated the entire Bayesian posterior frequency distribution of reconstructed ancestral states. We analyzed primate mitochondrial cytochrome b (Cyt-b) and cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) genes and found that ML reconstructs ancestral frequencies that are often more different from tip sequences than are parsimony reconstructions. In contrast, frequency reconstructions based on the posterior ensemble more closely resemble extant nucleotide frequencies. Simulations indicate that these differences in ancestral sequence inference are probably due to deterministic bias caused by high uncertainty in the optimization-based ancestral reconstruction methods (parsimony, ML, Bayesian maximum a posteriori). In contrast, ancestral nucleotide frequencies based on an average of the Bayesian set of credible ancestral sequences are much less biased. The methods involving simpler conditional pathway calculations have slightly reduced likelihood values compared to full likelihood calculations, but they can provide fairly unbiased nucleotide reconstructions and may be useful in more complex phylogenetic analyses than considered here due to their speed and flexibility. To determine whether biased reconstructions using optimization methods might affect inferences of functional properties, ancestral primate mitochondrial tRNA sequences were inferred and helix-forming propensities for conserved pairs were evaluated in silico. For ambiguously reconstructed nucleotides at sites with high base composition variability, ancestral tRNA sequences from Bayesian analyses were more compatible with canonical base pairing than were those inferred by other methods. Thus, nucleotide bias in reconstructed sequences apparently can lead to serious bias and inaccuracies in functional predictions.

Phylogeny of Selaginellaceae: There is value in morphology after all!

PubMed

Weststrand, Stina; Korall, Petra

2016-12-01

The cosmopolitan lycophyte family Selaginellaceae, dating back to the Late Devonian-Early Carboniferous, is notorious for its many species with a seemingly undifferentiated gross morphology. This morphological stasis has for a long time hampered our understanding of the evolutionary history of the single genus Selaginella. Here we present a large-scale phylogenetic analysis of Selaginella, and based on the resulting phylogeny, we discuss morphological evolution in the group. We sampled about one-third of the approximately 750 recognized Selaginella species. Evolutionary relationships were inferred from both chloroplast (rbcL) and single-copy nuclear gene data (pgiC and SQD1) using a Bayesian inference approach. The morphology of the group was studied and important features mapped onto the phylogeny. We present an overall well-supported phylogeny of Selaginella, and the phylogenetic positions of some previously problematic taxa (i.e., S. sinensis and allies) are now resolved with strong support. We show that even though the evolution of most morphological characters involves reversals and/or parallelisms, several characters are phylogenetically informative. Seven major clades are identified, which each can be uniquely diagnosed by a suite of morphological features. There is value in morphology after all! Our hypothesis of the evolutionary relationships of Selaginella is well founded based on DNA sequence data, as well as morphology, and is in line with previous findings. It will serve as a firm basis for further studies on Selaginella with respect to, e.g., the poorly known alpha taxonomy, as well as evolutionary questions such as historical biogeographic reconstructions. © 2016 Weststrand and Korall. Published by the Botanical Society of America. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY 4.0).

Complete genome sequencing and evolutionary phylogeography analysis of Indian isolates of Dengue virus type 1.

PubMed

Dash, Paban Kumar; Sharma, Shashi; Soni, Manisha; Agarwal, Ankita; Sahni, Ajay Kumar; Parida, Manmohan

2015-01-02

Dengue is now hyper-endemic in most parts of south and southeast Asia including India. The northern India particularly national capital New Delhi witnessed major Dengue outbreaks with Dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1) as the dominant serotype since last five years. This study was initiated to decipher the complete genome information of recently circulating DENV-1 (2009-2011) along with the prototype Indian DENV-1, isolated in 1956. Further extensive ML phylogenetic and Bayesian phylogeography analysis was carried out to investigate the evolution of this virus and understand its spatiotemporal diffusion across the globe. The complete genome analysis revealed deletion of a unique 21-nucleotide stretch in the 3' un-translated region of recent Indian DENV-1. The north Indian DENV-1 revealed up to 5.2% nucleotide sequence difference compared to recent isolates from southern India. Selection pressure analysis revealed positive selection in few amino acid sites of both structural and non-structural proteins. The molecular phylogeny classified the Indian DENV-1 into genotype III, which is also known as cosmopolitan genotype. The northern and southern Indian DENV-1 were grouped into distinct clades. The molecular clock analysis estimated a mean evolutionary rate of 7.08×10(-4) substitutions/site/year for cosmopolitan genotype. The phylogeography analysis revealed that the cosmopolitan genotype DENV-1 originated ∼1938 in India and subsequently spread globally. The diffusion of virus from India to Caribbean and South America was confirmed through SPREAD analysis. This study also confirmed the temporal displacement of different clades of DENV-1 in India over last five decades. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The evolutionary host switches of Polychromophilus: a multi-gene phylogeny of the bat malaria genus suggests a second invasion of mammals by a haemosporidian parasite

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The majority of Haemosporida species infect birds or reptiles, but many important genera, including Plasmodium, infect mammals. Dipteran vectors shared by avian, reptilian and mammalian Haemosporida, suggest multiple invasions of Mammalia during haemosporidian evolution; yet, phylogenetic analyses have detected only a single invasion event. Until now, several important mammal-infecting genera have been absent in these analyses. This study focuses on the evolutionary origin of Polychromophilus, a unique malaria genus that only infects bats (Microchiroptera) and is transmitted by bat flies (Nycteribiidae). Methods Two species of Polychromophilus were obtained from wild bats caught in Switzerland. These were molecularly characterized using four genes (asl, clpc, coI, cytb) from the three different genomes (nucleus, apicoplast, mitochondrion). These data were then combined with data of 60 taxa of Haemosporida available in GenBank. Bayesian inference, maximum likelihood and a range of rooting methods were used to test specific hypotheses concerning the phylogenetic relationships between Polychromophilus and the other haemosporidian genera. Results The Polychromophilus melanipherus and Polychromophilus murinus samples show genetically distinct patterns and group according to species. The Bayesian tree topology suggests that the monophyletic clade of Polychromophilus falls within the avian/saurian clade of Plasmodium and directed hypothesis testing confirms the Plasmodium origin. Conclusion Polychromophilus' ancestor was most likely a bird- or reptile-infecting Plasmodium before it switched to bats. The invasion of mammals as hosts has, therefore, not been a unique event in the evolutionary history of Haemosporida, despite the suspected costs of adapting to a new host. This was, moreover, accompanied by a switch in dipteran host. PMID:22356874

The evolutionary history of Eugenia sect. Phyllocalyx (Myrtaceae) corroborates historically stable areas in the southern Atlantic forests.

PubMed

de Oliveira Bünger, Mariana; Fernanda Mazine, Fiorella; Forest, Félix; Leandro Bueno, Marcelo; Renato Stehmann, João; Lucas, Eve J

2016-12-01

Eugenia sect. Phyllocalyx Nied. includes 14 species endemic to the Neotropics, mostly distributed in the Atlantic coastal forests of Brazil. Here the first comprehensive phylogenetic study of this group is presented, and this phylogeny is used as the basis to evaluate the recent infrageneric classification in Eugenia sensu lato (s.l.) to test the history of the evolution of traits in the group and test hypotheses associated with the history of this clade. A total of 42 taxa were sampled, of which 14 were Eugenia sect. Phyllocalyx for one nuclear (ribosomal internal transcribed spacer) and four plastid markers (psbA-trnH, rpl16, trnL-rpl32 and trnQ-rps16). The relationships were reconstructed based on Bayesian analysis and maximum likelihood. Additionally, ancestral area analysis and modelling methods were used to estimate species dispersal, comparing historically climatic stable (refuges) and unstable areas. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian inferences indicate that Eugenia sect. Phyllocalyx is paraphyletic and the two clades recovered are characterized by combinations of morphological characters. Phylogenetic relationships support a link between Cerrado and south-eastern species and a difference in the composition of species from north-eastern and south-eastern Atlantic forest. Refugia and stable areas identified within unstable areas suggest that these areas were important to maintain diversity in the Atlantic forest biodiversity hotspot. This study provides a robust phylogenetic framework to address important historical questions for Eugenia s.l. within an evolutionary context, supporting the need for better taxonomic study of one of the largest genera in the Neotropics. Furthermore, valuable insight is offered into diversification and biome shifts of plant species in the highly environmentally impacted Atlantic forest of South America. Evidence is presented that climate stability in the south-eastern Atlantic forest during the Quaternary contributed to the highest levels of plant diversity in this region that acted as a refugium. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Historical and current introgression in a Mesoamerican hummingbird species complex: a biogeographic perspective

PubMed Central

Jiménez, Rosa Alicia

2016-01-01

The influence of geologic and Pleistocene glacial cycles might result in morphological and genetic complex scenarios in the biota of the Mesoamerican region. We tested whether berylline, blue-tailed and steely-blue hummingbirds, Amazilia beryllina, Amazilia cyanura and Amazilia saucerottei, show evidence of historical or current introgression as their plumage colour variation might suggest. We also analysed the role of past and present climatic events in promoting genetic introgression and species diversification. We collected mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence data and microsatellite loci scores for populations throughout the range of the three Amazilia species, as well as morphological and ecological data. Haplotype network, Bayesian phylogenetic and divergence time inference, historical demography, palaeodistribution modelling, and niche divergence tests were used to reconstruct the evolutionary history of this Amazilia species complex. An isolation-with-migration coalescent model and Bayesian assignment analysis were assessed to determine historical introgression and current genetic admixture. mtDNA haplotypes were geographically unstructured, with haplotypes from disparate areas interdispersed on a shallow tree and an unresolved haplotype network. Assignment analysis of the nuclear genome (nuDNA) supported three genetic groups with signs of genetic admixture, corresponding to: (1) A. beryllina populations located west of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec; (2) A. cyanura populations between the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and the Nicaraguan Depression (Nuclear Central America); and (3) A. saucerottei populations southeast of the Nicaraguan Depression. Gene flow and divergence time estimates, and demographic and palaeodistribution patterns suggest an evolutionary history of introgression mediated by Quaternary climatic fluctuations. High levels of gene flow were indicated by mtDNA and asymmetrical isolation-with-migration, whereas the microsatellite analyses found evidence for three genetic clusters with distributions corresponding to isolation by the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and the Nicaraguan Depression and signs of admixture. Historical levels of migration between genetically distinct groups estimated using microsatellites were higher than contemporary levels of migration. These results support the scenario of secondary contact and range contact during the glacial periods of the Pleistocene and strongly imply that the high levels of structure currently observed are a consequence of the limited dispersal of these hummingbirds across the isthmus and depression barriers. PMID:26788433

Combined Mitochondrial and Nuclear Markers Revealed a Deep Vicariant History for Leopoldamys neilli, a Cave-Dwelling Rodent of Thailand

PubMed Central

Latinne, Alice; Waengsothorn, Surachit; Rojanadilok, Prateep; Eiamampai, Krairat; Sribuarod, Kriangsak; Michaux, Johan R.

2012-01-01

Background Historical biogeography and evolutionary processes of cave taxa have been widely studied in temperate regions. However, Southeast Asian cave ecosystems remain largely unexplored despite their high scientific interest. Here we studied the phylogeography of Leopoldamys neilli, a cave-dwelling murine rodent living in limestone karsts of Thailand, and compared the molecular signature of mitochondrial and nuclear markers. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a large sampling (n = 225) from 28 localities in Thailand and a combination of mitochondrial and nuclear markers with various evolutionary rates (two intronic regions and 12 microsatellites). The evolutionary history of L. neilli and the relative role of vicariance and dispersal were investigated using ancestral range reconstruction analysis and Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Both mitochondrial and nuclear markers support a large-scale population structure of four main groups (west, centre, north and northeast) and a strong finer structure within each of these groups. A deep genealogical divergence among geographically close lineages is observed and denotes a high population fragmentation. Our findings suggest that the current phylogeographic pattern of this species results from the fragmentation of a widespread ancestral population and that vicariance has played a significant role in the evolutionary history of L. neilli. These deep vicariant events that occurred during Plio-Pleistocene are related to the formation of the Central Plain of Thailand. Consequently, the western, central, northern and northeastern groups of populations were historically isolated and should be considered as four distinct Evolutionarily Significant Units (ESUs). Conclusions/Significance Our study confirms the benefit of using several independent genetic markers to obtain a comprehensive and reliable picture of L. neilli evolutionary history at different levels of resolution. The complex genetic structure of Leopoldamys neilli is supported by congruent mitochondrial and nuclear markers and has been influenced by the geological history of Thailand during Plio-Pleistocene. PMID:23118888

New phiomorph rodents from the latest Eocene of Egypt, and the impact of Bayesian “clock”-based phylogenetic methods on estimates of basal hystricognath relationships and biochronology

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The Fayum Depression of Egypt has yielded fossils of hystricognathous rodents from multiple Eocene and Oligocene horizons that range in age from ∼37 to ∼30 Ma and document several phases in the early evolution of crown Hystricognathi and one of its major subclades, Phiomorpha. Here we describe two new genera and species of basal phiomorphs, Birkamys korai and Mubhammys vadumensis, based on rostra and maxillary and mandibular remains from the terminal Eocene (∼34 Ma) Fayum Locality 41 (L-41). Birkamys is the smallest known Paleogene hystricognath, has very simple molars, and, like derived Oligocene-to-Recent phiomorphs (but unlike contemporaneous and older taxa) apparently retained dP4∕4 late into life, with no evidence for P4∕4 eruption or formation. Mubhammys is very similar in dental morphology to Birkamys, and also shows no evidence for P4∕4 formation or eruption, but is considerably larger. Though parsimony analysis with all characters equally weighted places Birkamys and Mubhammys as sister taxa of extant Thryonomys to the exclusion of much younger relatives of that genus, all other methods (standard Bayesian inference, Bayesian “tip-dating,” and parsimony analysis with scaled transitions between “fixed” and polymorphic states) place these species in more basal positions within Hystricognathi, as sister taxa of Oligocene-to-Recent phiomorphs. We also employ tip-dating as a means for estimating the ages of early hystricognath-bearing localities, many of which are not well-constrained by geological, geochronological, or biostratigraphic evidence. By simultaneously taking into account phylogeny, evolutionary rates, and uniform priors that appropriately encompass the range of possible ages for fossil localities, dating of tips in this Bayesian framework allows paleontologists to move beyond vague and assumption-laden “stage of evolution” arguments in biochronology to provide relatively rigorous age assessments of poorly-constrained faunas. This approach should become increasingly robust as estimates are combined from multiple independent analyses of distantly related clades, and is broadly applicable across the tree of life; as such it is deserving of paleontologists’ close attention. Notably, in the example provided here, hystricognathous rodents from Libya and Namibia that are controversially considered to be of middle Eocene age are instead estimated to be of late Eocene and late Oligocene age, respectively. Finally, we reconstruct the evolution of first lower molar size among Paleogene African hystricognaths using a Bayesian approach; the results of this analysis reconstruct a rapid latest Eocene dwarfing event along the lineage leading to Birkamys. PMID:26966657

Bayesian survival analysis in clinical trials: What methods are used in practice?

PubMed

Brard, Caroline; Le Teuff, Gwénaël; Le Deley, Marie-Cécile; Hampson, Lisa V

2017-02-01

Background Bayesian statistics are an appealing alternative to the traditional frequentist approach to designing, analysing, and reporting of clinical trials, especially in rare diseases. Time-to-event endpoints are widely used in many medical fields. There are additional complexities to designing Bayesian survival trials which arise from the need to specify a model for the survival distribution. The objective of this article was to critically review the use and reporting of Bayesian methods in survival trials. Methods A systematic review of clinical trials using Bayesian survival analyses was performed through PubMed and Web of Science databases. This was complemented by a full text search of the online repositories of pre-selected journals. Cost-effectiveness, dose-finding studies, meta-analyses, and methodological papers using clinical trials were excluded. Results In total, 28 articles met the inclusion criteria, 25 were original reports of clinical trials and 3 were re-analyses of a clinical trial. Most trials were in oncology (n = 25), were randomised controlled (n = 21) phase III trials (n = 13), and half considered a rare disease (n = 13). Bayesian approaches were used for monitoring in 14 trials and for the final analysis only in 14 trials. In the latter case, Bayesian survival analyses were used for the primary analysis in four cases, for the secondary analysis in seven cases, and for the trial re-analysis in three cases. Overall, 12 articles reported fitting Bayesian regression models (semi-parametric, n = 3; parametric, n = 9). Prior distributions were often incompletely reported: 20 articles did not define the prior distribution used for the parameter of interest. Over half of the trials used only non-informative priors for monitoring and the final analysis (n = 12) when it was specified. Indeed, no articles fitting Bayesian regression models placed informative priors on the parameter of interest. The prior for the treatment effect was based on historical data in only four trials. Decision rules were pre-defined in eight cases when trials used Bayesian monitoring, and in only one case when trials adopted a Bayesian approach to the final analysis. Conclusion Few trials implemented a Bayesian survival analysis and few incorporated external data into priors. There is scope to improve the quality of reporting of Bayesian methods in survival trials. Extension of the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials statement for reporting Bayesian clinical trials is recommended.

The Application of Bayesian Analysis to Issues in Developmental Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walker, Lawrence J.; Gustafson, Paul; Frimer, Jeremy A.

2007-01-01

This article reviews the concepts and methods of Bayesian statistical analysis, which can offer innovative and powerful solutions to some challenging analytical problems that characterize developmental research. In this article, we demonstrate the utility of Bayesian analysis, explain its unique adeptness in some circumstances, address some…

A default Bayesian hypothesis test for mediation.

PubMed

Nuijten, Michèle B; Wetzels, Ruud; Matzke, Dora; Dolan, Conor V; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2015-03-01

In order to quantify the relationship between multiple variables, researchers often carry out a mediation analysis. In such an analysis, a mediator (e.g., knowledge of a healthy diet) transmits the effect from an independent variable (e.g., classroom instruction on a healthy diet) to a dependent variable (e.g., consumption of fruits and vegetables). Almost all mediation analyses in psychology use frequentist estimation and hypothesis-testing techniques. A recent exception is Yuan and MacKinnon (Psychological Methods, 14, 301-322, 2009), who outlined a Bayesian parameter estimation procedure for mediation analysis. Here we complete the Bayesian alternative to frequentist mediation analysis by specifying a default Bayesian hypothesis test based on the Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow approach. We further extend this default Bayesian test by allowing a comparison to directional or one-sided alternatives, using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques implemented in JAGS. All Bayesian tests are implemented in the R package BayesMed (Nuijten, Wetzels, Matzke, Dolan, & Wagenmakers, 2014).

A Tutorial in Bayesian Potential Outcomes Mediation Analysis.

PubMed

Miočević, Milica; Gonzalez, Oscar; Valente, Matthew J; MacKinnon, David P

2018-01-01

Statistical mediation analysis is used to investigate intermediate variables in the relation between independent and dependent variables. Causal interpretation of mediation analyses is challenging because randomization of subjects to levels of the independent variable does not rule out the possibility of unmeasured confounders of the mediator to outcome relation. Furthermore, commonly used frequentist methods for mediation analysis compute the probability of the data given the null hypothesis, which is not the probability of a hypothesis given the data as in Bayesian analysis. Under certain assumptions, applying the potential outcomes framework to mediation analysis allows for the computation of causal effects, and statistical mediation in the Bayesian framework gives indirect effects probabilistic interpretations. This tutorial combines causal inference and Bayesian methods for mediation analysis so the indirect and direct effects have both causal and probabilistic interpretations. Steps in Bayesian causal mediation analysis are shown in the application to an empirical example.

ANUBIS: artificial neuromodulation using a Bayesian inference system.

PubMed

Smith, Benjamin J H; Saaj, Chakravarthini M; Allouis, Elie

2013-01-01

Gain tuning is a crucial part of controller design and depends not only on an accurate understanding of the system in question, but also on the designer's ability to predict what disturbances and other perturbations the system will encounter throughout its operation. This letter presents ANUBIS (artificial neuromodulation using a Bayesian inference system), a novel biologically inspired technique for automatically tuning controller parameters in real time. ANUBIS is based on the Bayesian brain concept and modifies it by incorporating a model of the neuromodulatory system comprising four artificial neuromodulators. It has been applied to the controller of EchinoBot, a prototype walking rover for Martian exploration. ANUBIS has been implemented at three levels of the controller; gait generation, foot trajectory planning using Bézier curves, and foot trajectory tracking using a terminal sliding mode controller. We compare the results to a similar system that has been tuned using a multilayer perceptron. The use of Bayesian inference means that the system retains mathematical interpretability, unlike other intelligent tuning techniques, which use neural networks, fuzzy logic, or evolutionary algorithms. The simulation results show that ANUBIS provides significant improvements in efficiency and adaptability of the three controller components; it allows the robot to react to obstacles and uncertainties faster than the system tuned with the MLP, while maintaining stability and accuracy. As well as advancing rover autonomy, ANUBIS could also be applied to other situations where operating conditions are likely to change or cannot be accurately modeled in advance, such as process control. In addition, it demonstrates one way in which neuromodulation could fit into the Bayesian brain framework.

HOW TO STUDY ADAPTATION (AND WHY TO DO IT THAT WAY).

PubMed

Olson, Mark E; Arroyo-Santos, Alfonso

2015-06-01

Some adaptationist explanations are regarded as maximally solid and others fanciful just-so stories. Just-so stories are explanations based on very little evidence. Lack of evidence leads to circular-sounding reasoning: "this trait was shaped by selection in unseen ancestral populations and this selection must have occurred because the trait is present." Well-supported adaptationist explanations include evidence that is not only abundant but selected from comparative, populational, and optimality perspectives, the three adaptationist subdisciplines. Each subdiscipline obtains its broad relevance in evolutionary biology via assumptions that can only be tested with the methods of the other subdisciplines. However, even in the best-supported explanations, assumptions regarding variation, heritability, and fitness in unseen ancestral populations are always present. These assumptions are accepted given how well they would explain the data if they were true. This means that some degree of "circularity" is present in all evolutionary explanations. Evolutionary explanation corresponds not to a deductive structure, as biologists usually assert, but instead to ones such as abduction or Bayesianism. With these structures in mind, we show the way to a healthier view of "circularity" in evolutionary biology and why integration across the comparative, populational, and optimality approaches is necessary.

Accounting for rate variation among lineages in comparative demographic analyses.

PubMed

Hope, Andrew G; Ho, Simon Y W; Malaney, Jason L; Cook, Joseph A; Talbot, Sandra L

2014-09-01

Genetic analyses of contemporary populations can be used to estimate the demographic histories of species within an ecological community. Comparison of these demographic histories can shed light on community responses to past climatic events. However, species experience different rates of molecular evolution, and this presents a major obstacle to comparative demographic analyses. We address this problem by using a Bayesian relaxed-clock method to estimate the relative evolutionary rates of 22 small mammal taxa distributed across northwestern North America. We found that estimates of the relative molecular substitution rate for each taxon were consistent across the range of sampling schemes that we compared. Using three different reference rates, we rescaled the relative rates so that they could be used to estimate absolute evolutionary timescales. Accounting for rate variation among taxa led to temporal shifts in our skyline-plot estimates of demographic history, highlighting both uniform and idiosyncratic evolutionary responses to directional climate trends for distinct ecological subsets of the small mammal community. Our approach can be used in evolutionary analyses of populations from multiple species, including comparative demographic studies. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Supermatrix and species tree methods resolve phylogenetic relationships within the big cats, Panthera (Carnivora: Felidae).

PubMed

Davis, Brian W; Li, Gang; Murphy, William J

2010-07-01

The pantherine lineage of cats diverged from the remainder of modern Felidae less than 11 million years ago and consists of the five big cats of the genus Panthera, the lion, tiger, jaguar, leopard, and snow leopard, as well as the closely related clouded leopard. A significant problem exists with respect to the precise phylogeny of these highly threatened great cats. Despite multiple publications on the subject, no two molecular studies have reconstructed Panthera with the same topology. These evolutionary relationships remain unresolved partially due to the recent and rapid radiation of pantherines in the Pliocene, individual speciation events occurring within less than 1 million years, and probable introgression between lineages following their divergence. We provide an alternative, highly supported interpretation of the evolutionary history of the pantherine lineage using novel and published DNA sequence data from the autosomes, both sex chromosomes and the mitochondrial genome. New sequences were generated for 39 single-copy regions of the felid Y chromosome, as well as four mitochondrial and four autosomal gene segments, totaling 28.7 kb. Phylogenetic analysis of these new data, combined with all published data in GenBank, highlighted the prevalence of phylogenetic disparities stemming either from the amplification of a mitochondrial to nuclear translocation event (numt), or errors in species identification. Our 47.6 kb combined dataset was analyzed as a supermatrix and with respect to individual partitions using maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic inference, in conjunction with Bayesian Estimation of Species Trees (BEST) which accounts for heterogeneous gene histories. Our results yield a robust consensus topology supporting the monophyly of lion and leopard, with jaguar sister to these species, as well as a sister species relationship of tiger and snow leopard. These results highlight new avenues for the study of speciation genomics and understanding the historical events surrounding the origin of the members of this lineage. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gene trees, species trees, and morphology converge on a similar phylogeny of living gars (Actinopterygii: Holostei: Lepisosteidae), an ancient clade of ray-finned fishes.

PubMed

Wright, Jeremy J; David, Solomon R; Near, Thomas J

2012-06-01

Extant gars represent the remaining members of a formerly diverse assemblage of ancient ray-finned fishes and have been the subject of multiple phylogenetic analyses using morphological data. Here, we present the first hypothesis of phylogenetic relationships among living gar species based on molecular data, through the examination of gene tree heterogeneity and coalescent species tree analyses of a portion of one mitochondrial (COI) and seven nuclear (ENC1, myh6, plagl2, S7 ribosomal protein intron 1, sreb2, tbr1, and zic1) genes. Individual gene trees displayed varying degrees of resolution with regards to species-level relationships, and the gene trees inferred from COI and the S7 intron were the only two that were completely resolved. Coalescent species tree analyses of nuclear genes resulted in a well-resolved and strongly supported phylogenetic tree of living gar species, for which Bayesian posterior node support was further improved by the inclusion of the mitochondrial gene. Species-level relationships among gars inferred from our molecular data set were highly congruent with previously published morphological phylogenies, with the exception of the placement of two species, Lepisosteus osseus and L. platostomus. Re-examination of the character coding used by previous authors provided partial resolution of this topological discordance, resulting in broad concordance in the phylogenies inferred from individual genes, the coalescent species tree analysis, and morphology. The completely resolved phylogeny inferred from the molecular data set with strong Bayesian posterior support at all nodes provided insights into the potential for introgressive hybridization and patterns of allopatric speciation in the evolutionary history of living gars, as well as a solid foundation for future examinations of functional diversification and evolutionary stasis in a "living fossil" lineage. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Genetic structure of pike (Esox lucius) reveals a complex and previously unrecognized colonization history of Ireland

PubMed Central

Pedreschi, Debbi; Kelly-Quinn, Mary; Caffrey, Joe; O’Grady, Martin; Mariani, Stefano; Phillimore, Albert

2014-01-01

Aim We investigated genetic variation of Irish pike populations and their relationship with European outgroups, in order to elucidate the origin of this species to the island, which is largely assumed to have occurred as a human-mediated introduction over the past few hundred years. We aimed thereby to provide new insights into population structure to improve fisheries and biodiversity management in Irish freshwaters. Location Ireland, Britain and continental Europe. Methods A total of 752 pike (Esox lucius) were sampled from 15 locations around Ireland, and 9 continental European sites, and genotyped at six polymorphic microsatellite loci. Patterns and mechanisms of population genetic structure were assessed through a diverse array of methods, including Bayesian clustering, hierarchical analysis of molecular variance, and approximate Bayesian computation. Results Varying levels of genetic diversity and a high degree of population genetic differentiation were detected. Clear substructure within Ireland was identified, with two main groups being evident. One of the Irish populations showed high similarity with British populations. The other, more widespread, Irish strain did not group with any European population examined. Approximate Bayesian computation suggested that this widespread Irish strain is older, and may have colonized Ireland independently of humans. Main conclusions Population genetic substructure in Irish pike is high and comparable to the levels observed elsewhere in Europe. A comparison of evolutionary scenarios upholds the possibility that pike may have colonized Ireland in two ‘waves’, the first of which, being independent of human colonization, would represent the first evidence for natural colonization of a non-anadromous freshwater fish to the island of Ireland. Although further investigations using comprehensive genomic techniques will be necessary to confirm this, the present results warrant a reappraisal of current management strategies for this species. PMID:25435649

Genetic structure of pike (Esox lucius) reveals a complex and previously unrecognized colonization history of Ireland.

PubMed

Pedreschi, Debbi; Kelly-Quinn, Mary; Caffrey, Joe; O'Grady, Martin; Mariani, Stefano; Phillimore, Albert

2014-03-01

We investigated genetic variation of Irish pike populations and their relationship with European outgroups, in order to elucidate the origin of this species to the island, which is largely assumed to have occurred as a human-mediated introduction over the past few hundred years. We aimed thereby to provide new insights into population structure to improve fisheries and biodiversity management in Irish freshwaters. Ireland, Britain and continental Europe. A total of 752 pike ( Esox lucius ) were sampled from 15 locations around Ireland, and 9 continental European sites, and genotyped at six polymorphic microsatellite loci. Patterns and mechanisms of population genetic structure were assessed through a diverse array of methods, including Bayesian clustering, hierarchical analysis of molecular variance, and approximate Bayesian computation. Varying levels of genetic diversity and a high degree of population genetic differentiation were detected. Clear substructure within Ireland was identified, with two main groups being evident. One of the Irish populations showed high similarity with British populations. The other, more widespread, Irish strain did not group with any European population examined. Approximate Bayesian computation suggested that this widespread Irish strain is older, and may have colonized Ireland independently of humans. Population genetic substructure in Irish pike is high and comparable to the levels observed elsewhere in Europe. A comparison of evolutionary scenarios upholds the possibility that pike may have colonized Ireland in two 'waves', the first of which, being independent of human colonization, would represent the first evidence for natural colonization of a non-anadromous freshwater fish to the island of Ireland. Although further investigations using comprehensive genomic techniques will be necessary to confirm this, the present results warrant a reappraisal of current management strategies for this species.

A Bayesian approach to meta-analysis of plant pathology studies.

PubMed

Mila, A L; Ngugi, H K

2011-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are used for meta-analysis in many disciplines, including medicine, molecular biology, and engineering, but have not yet been applied for quantitative synthesis of plant pathology studies. In this paper, we illustrate the key concepts of Bayesian statistics and outline the differences between Bayesian and classical (frequentist) methods in the way parameters describing population attributes are considered. We then describe a Bayesian approach to meta-analysis and present a plant pathological example based on studies evaluating the efficacy of plant protection products that induce systemic acquired resistance for the management of fire blight of apple. In a simple random-effects model assuming a normal distribution of effect sizes and no prior information (i.e., a noninformative prior), the results of the Bayesian meta-analysis are similar to those obtained with classical methods. Implementing the same model with a Student's t distribution and a noninformative prior for the effect sizes, instead of a normal distribution, yields similar results for all but acibenzolar-S-methyl (Actigard) which was evaluated only in seven studies in this example. Whereas both the classical (P = 0.28) and the Bayesian analysis with a noninformative prior (95% credibility interval [CRI] for the log response ratio: -0.63 to 0.08) indicate a nonsignificant effect for Actigard, specifying a t distribution resulted in a significant, albeit variable, effect for this product (CRI: -0.73 to -0.10). These results confirm the sensitivity of the analytical outcome (i.e., the posterior distribution) to the choice of prior in Bayesian meta-analyses involving a limited number of studies. We review some pertinent literature on more advanced topics, including modeling of among-study heterogeneity, publication bias, analyses involving a limited number of studies, and methods for dealing with missing data, and show how these issues can be approached in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian meta-analysis can readily include information not easily incorporated in classical methods, and allow for a full evaluation of competing models. Given the power and flexibility of Bayesian methods, we expect them to become widely adopted for meta-analysis of plant pathology studies.

Bayesian structural equation modeling in sport and exercise psychology.

PubMed

Stenling, Andreas; Ivarsson, Andreas; Johnson, Urban; Lindwall, Magnus

2015-08-01

Bayesian statistics is on the rise in mainstream psychology, but applications in sport and exercise psychology research are scarce. In this article, the foundations of Bayesian analysis are introduced, and we will illustrate how to apply Bayesian structural equation modeling in a sport and exercise psychology setting. More specifically, we contrasted a confirmatory factor analysis on the Sport Motivation Scale II estimated with the most commonly used estimator, maximum likelihood, and a Bayesian approach with weakly informative priors for cross-loadings and correlated residuals. The results indicated that the model with Bayesian estimation and weakly informative priors provided a good fit to the data, whereas the model estimated with a maximum likelihood estimator did not produce a well-fitting model. The reasons for this discrepancy between maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation are discussed as well as potential advantages and caveats with the Bayesian approach.

Bayesian Statistics for Biological Data: Pedigree Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stanfield, William D.; Carlton, Matthew A.

2004-01-01

The use of Bayes' formula is applied to the biological problem of pedigree analysis to show that the Bayes' formula and non-Bayesian or "classical" methods of probability calculation give different answers. First year college students of biology can be introduced to the Bayesian statistics.

Ockham's razor and Bayesian analysis. [statistical theory for systems evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jefferys, William H.; Berger, James O.

1992-01-01

'Ockham's razor', the ad hoc principle enjoining the greatest possible simplicity in theoretical explanations, is presently shown to be justifiable as a consequence of Bayesian inference; Bayesian analysis can, moreover, clarify the nature of the 'simplest' hypothesis consistent with the given data. By choosing the prior probabilities of hypotheses, it becomes possible to quantify the scientific judgment that simpler hypotheses are more likely to be correct. Bayesian analysis also shows that a hypothesis with fewer adjustable parameters intrinsically possesses an enhanced posterior probability, due to the clarity of its predictions.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Bayesian Data Analysis in Astronomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Sanjib

2017-08-01

Markov Chain Monte Carlo based Bayesian data analysis has now become the method of choice for analyzing and interpreting data in almost all disciplines of science. In astronomy, over the last decade, we have also seen a steady increase in the number of papers that employ Monte Carlo based Bayesian analysis. New, efficient Monte Carlo based methods are continuously being developed and explored. In this review, we first explain the basics of Bayesian theory and discuss how to set up data analysis problems within this framework. Next, we provide an overview of various Monte Carlo based methods for performing Bayesian data analysis. Finally, we discuss advanced ideas that enable us to tackle complex problems and thus hold great promise for the future. We also distribute downloadable computer software (available at https://github.com/sanjibs/bmcmc/ ) that implements some of the algorithms and examples discussed here.

Tempo and mode of performance evolution across multiple independent origins of adhesive toe pads in lizards.

PubMed

Hagey, Travis J; Uyeda, Josef C; Crandell, Kristen E; Cheney, Jorn A; Autumn, Kellar; Harmon, Luke J

2017-10-01

Understanding macroevolutionary dynamics of trait evolution is an important endeavor in evolutionary biology. Ecological opportunity can liberate a trait as it diversifies through trait space, while genetic and selective constraints can limit diversification. While many studies have examined the dynamics of morphological traits, diverse morphological traits may yield the same or similar performance and as performance is often more proximately the target of selection, examining only morphology may give an incomplete understanding of evolutionary dynamics. Here, we ask whether convergent evolution of pad-bearing lizards has followed similar evolutionary dynamics, or whether independent origins are accompanied by unique constraints and selective pressures over macroevolutionary time. We hypothesized that geckos and anoles each have unique evolutionary tempos and modes. Using performance data from 59 species, we modified Brownian motion (BM) and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) models to account for repeated origins estimated using Bayesian ancestral state reconstructions. We discovered that adhesive performance in geckos evolved in a fashion consistent with Brownian motion with a trend, whereas anoles evolved in bounded performance space consistent with more constrained evolution (an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model). Our results suggest that convergent phenotypes can have quite distinctive evolutionary patterns, likely as a result of idiosyncratic constraints or ecological opportunities. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Cultural and climatic changes shape the evolutionary history of the Uralic languages.

PubMed

Honkola, T; Vesakoski, O; Korhonen, K; Lehtinen, J; Syrjänen, K; Wahlberg, N

2013-06-01

Quantitative phylogenetic methods have been used to study the evolutionary relationships and divergence times of biological species, and recently, these have also been applied to linguistic data to elucidate the evolutionary history of language families. In biology, the factors driving macroevolutionary processes are assumed to be either mainly biotic (the Red Queen model) or mainly abiotic (the Court Jester model) or a combination of both. The applicability of these models is assumed to depend on the temporal and spatial scale observed as biotic factors act on species divergence faster and in smaller spatial scale than the abiotic factors. Here, we used the Uralic language family to investigate whether both 'biotic' interactions (i.e. cultural interactions) and abiotic changes (i.e. climatic fluctuations) are also connected to language diversification. We estimated the times of divergence using Bayesian phylogenetics with a relaxed-clock method and related our results to climatic, historical and archaeological information. Our timing results paralleled the previous linguistic studies but suggested a later divergence of Finno-Ugric, Finnic and Saami languages. Some of the divergences co-occurred with climatic fluctuation and some with cultural interaction and migrations of populations. Thus, we suggest that both 'biotic' and abiotic factors contribute either directly or indirectly to the diversification of languages and that both models can be applied when studying language evolution. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2013 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Power in Bayesian Mediation Analysis for Small Sample Research

PubMed Central

Miočević, Milica; MacKinnon, David P.; Levy, Roy

2018-01-01

It was suggested that Bayesian methods have potential for increasing power in mediation analysis (Koopman, Howe, Hollenbeck, & Sin, 2015; Yuan & MacKinnon, 2009). This paper compares the power of Bayesian credibility intervals for the mediated effect to the power of normal theory, distribution of the product, percentile, and bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals at N≤ 200. Bayesian methods with diffuse priors have power comparable to the distribution of the product and bootstrap methods, and Bayesian methods with informative priors had the most power. Varying degrees of precision of prior distributions were also examined. Increased precision led to greater power only when N≥ 100 and the effects were small, N < 60 and the effects were large, and N < 200 and the effects were medium. An empirical example from psychology illustrated a Bayesian analysis of the single mediator model from prior selection to interpreting results. PMID:29662296

Power in Bayesian Mediation Analysis for Small Sample Research.

PubMed

Miočević, Milica; MacKinnon, David P; Levy, Roy

2017-01-01

It was suggested that Bayesian methods have potential for increasing power in mediation analysis (Koopman, Howe, Hollenbeck, & Sin, 2015; Yuan & MacKinnon, 2009). This paper compares the power of Bayesian credibility intervals for the mediated effect to the power of normal theory, distribution of the product, percentile, and bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals at N≤ 200. Bayesian methods with diffuse priors have power comparable to the distribution of the product and bootstrap methods, and Bayesian methods with informative priors had the most power. Varying degrees of precision of prior distributions were also examined. Increased precision led to greater power only when N≥ 100 and the effects were small, N < 60 and the effects were large, and N < 200 and the effects were medium. An empirical example from psychology illustrated a Bayesian analysis of the single mediator model from prior selection to interpreting results.

Bayesian methods including nonrandomized study data increased the efficiency of postlaunch RCTs.

PubMed

Schmidt, Amand F; Klugkist, Irene; Klungel, Olaf H; Nielen, Mirjam; de Boer, Anthonius; Hoes, Arno W; Groenwold, Rolf H H

2015-04-01

Findings from nonrandomized studies on safety or efficacy of treatment in patient subgroups may trigger postlaunch randomized clinical trials (RCTs). In the analysis of such RCTs, results from nonrandomized studies are typically ignored. This study explores the trade-off between bias and power of Bayesian RCT analysis incorporating information from nonrandomized studies. A simulation study was conducted to compare frequentist with Bayesian analyses using noninformative and informative priors in their ability to detect interaction effects. In simulated subgroups, the effect of a hypothetical treatment differed between subgroups (odds ratio 1.00 vs. 2.33). Simulations varied in sample size, proportions of the subgroups, and specification of the priors. As expected, the results for the informative Bayesian analyses were more biased than those from the noninformative Bayesian analysis or frequentist analysis. However, because of a reduction in posterior variance, informative Bayesian analyses were generally more powerful to detect an effect. In scenarios where the informative priors were in the opposite direction of the RCT data, type 1 error rates could be 100% and power 0%. Bayesian methods incorporating data from nonrandomized studies can meaningfully increase power of interaction tests in postlaunch RCTs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sexually Antagonistic Selection in Human Male Homosexuality

PubMed Central

Camperio Ciani, Andrea; Cermelli, Paolo; Zanzotto, Giovanni

2008-01-01

Several lines of evidence indicate the existence of genetic factors influencing male homosexuality and bisexuality. In spite of its relatively low frequency, the stable permanence in all human populations of this apparently detrimental trait constitutes a puzzling ‘Darwinian paradox’. Furthermore, several studies have pointed out relevant asymmetries in the distribution of both male homosexuality and of female fecundity in the parental lines of homosexual vs. heterosexual males. A number of hypotheses have attempted to give an evolutionary explanation for the long-standing persistence of this trait, and for its asymmetric distribution in family lines; however a satisfactory understanding of the population genetics of male homosexuality is lacking at present. We perform a systematic mathematical analysis of the propagation and equilibrium of the putative genetic factors for male homosexuality in the population, based on the selection equation for one or two diallelic loci and Bayesian statistics for pedigree investigation. We show that only the two-locus genetic model with at least one locus on the X chromosome, and in which gene expression is sexually antagonistic (increasing female fitness but decreasing male fitness), accounts for all known empirical data. Our results help clarify the basic evolutionary dynamics of male homosexuality, establishing this as a clearly ascertained sexually antagonistic human trait. PMID:18560521

Evolutionary analysis of rubella viruses in mainland China during 2010–2012: endemic circulation of genotype 1E and introductions of genotype 2B

PubMed Central

Zhu, Zhen; Rivailler, Pierre; Abernathy, Emily; Cui, Aili; Zhang, Yan; Mao, Naiyin; Xu, Songtao; Zhou, Shujie; Lei, Yue; Wang, Yan; Zheng, Huanying; He, Jilan; Chen, Ying; Li, Chongshan; Bo, Fang; Zhao, Chunfang; Chen, Meng; Lu, Peishan; Li, Fangcai; Gu, Suyi; Gao, Hui; Guo, Yu; Chen, Hui; Feng, Daxing; Wang, Shuang; Tang, Xiaomin; Lei, Yake; Feng, Yan; Deng, Lili; Gong, Tian; Fan, Lixia; Xu, Wenbo; Icenogle, Joseph; Chen, Xia; Tian, Hong; Ma, Yan; Liu, Leng; Liu, Li; Liu, Jianfeng; Fu, Hong; Yang, Yuying; Ma, Yujie; Zhao, Hua; Huang, Fang; Hu, Ying; Zhang, Hong; Tian, Xiaoling; Du, Hui; Ma, Xuemin; Zhang, Zhenying; Xu, Jin; Zhou, Jianhui; Ye, Xufang; Li, Jing; Lu, Yiyu; Liu, Wei; Zhang, Yanni; Zhao, Shengcang; Ba, Zhuoma

2015-01-01

Rubella remains a significant burden in mainland China. In this report, 667 viruses collected in 24 of 31 provinces of mainland China during 2010–2012 were sequenced and analyzed, significantly extending previous reports on limited numbers of viruses collected before 2010. Only viruses of genotypes 1E and 2B were found. Genotype 1E viruses were found in all 24 provinces. Genotype 1E viruses were likely introduced into mainland China around 1997 and endemic transmission of primarily one lineage became established. Viruses reported here from 2010–2012 are largely in a single cluster within this lineage. Genotype 2B viruses were rarely detected in China prior to 2010. This report documents a previously undetected 2B lineage, which likely became endemic in eastern provinces of China between 2010 and 2012. Bayesian analyses were performed to estimate the evolutionary rates and dates of appearance of the genotype 1E and 2B viral linages in China. A skyline plot of viral population diversity did not provide evidence of reduction of diversity as a result of vaccination, but should be useful as a baseline for such reductions as vaccination programs for rubella become widespread in mainland China. PMID:25613734

Evolutionary analysis of rubella viruses in mainland China during 2010-2012: endemic circulation of genotype 1E and introductions of genotype 2B.

PubMed

Zhu, Zhen; Rivailler, Pierre; Abernathy, Emily; Cui, Aili; Zhang, Yan; Mao, Naiyin; Xu, Songtao; Zhou, Shujie; Lei, Yue; Wang, Yan; Zheng, Huanying; He, Jilan; Chen, Ying; Li, Chongshan; Bo, Fang; Zhao, Chunfang; Chen, Meng; Lu, Peishan; Li, Fangcai; Gu, Suyi; Gao, Hui; Guo, Yu; Chen, Hui; Feng, Daxing; Wang, Shuang; Tang, Xiaomin; Lei, Yake; Feng, Yan; Deng, Lili; Gong, Tian; Fan, Lixia; Xu, Wenbo; Icenogle, Joseph

2015-01-23

Rubella remains a significant burden in mainland China. In this report, 667 viruses collected in 24 of 31 provinces of mainland China during 2010-2012 were sequenced and analyzed, significantly extending previous reports on limited numbers of viruses collected before 2010. Only viruses of genotypes 1E and 2B were found. Genotype 1E viruses were found in all 24 provinces. Genotype 1E viruses were likely introduced into mainland China around 1997 and endemic transmission of primarily one lineage became established. Viruses reported here from 2010-2012 are largely in a single cluster within this lineage. Genotype 2B viruses were rarely detected in China prior to 2010. This report documents a previously undetected 2B lineage, which likely became endemic in eastern provinces of China between 2010 and 2012. Bayesian analyses were performed to estimate the evolutionary rates and dates of appearance of the genotype 1E and 2B viral linages in China. A skyline plot of viral population diversity did not provide evidence of reduction of diversity as a result of vaccination, but should be useful as a baseline for such reductions as vaccination programs for rubella become widespread in mainland China.

Epidemic history of hepatitis C virus infection in two remote communities in Nigeria, West Africa.

PubMed

Forbi, Joseph C; Purdy, Michael A; Campo, David S; Vaughan, Gilberto; Dimitrova, Zoya E; Ganova-Raeva, Lilia M; Xia, Guo-Liang; Khudyakov, Yury E

2012-07-01

We investigated the molecular epidemiology and population dynamics of HCV infection among indigenes of two semi-isolated communities in North-Central Nigeria. Despite remoteness and isolation, ~15% of the population had serological or molecular markers of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Phylogenetic analysis of the NS5b sequences obtained from 60 HCV-infected residents showed that HCV variants belonged to genotype 1 (n=51; 85%) and genotype 2 (n=9; 15%). All sequences were unique and intermixed in the phylogenetic tree with HCV sequences from people infected from other West African countries. The high-throughput 454 pyrosequencing of the HCV hypervariable region 1 and an empirical threshold error correction algorithm were used to evaluate intra-host heterogeneity of HCV strains of genotype 1 (n=43) and genotype 2 (n=6) from residents of the communities. Analysis revealed a rare detectable intermixing of HCV intra-host variants among residents. Identification of genetically close HCV variants among all known groups of relatives suggests a common intra-familial HCV transmission in the communities. Applying Bayesian coalescent analysis to the NS5b sequences, the most recent common ancestors for genotype 1 and 2 variants were estimated to have existed 675 and 286 years ago, respectively. Bayesian skyline plots suggest that HCV lineages of both genotypes identified in the Nigerian communities experienced epidemic growth for 200-300 years until the mid-20th century. The data suggest a massive introduction of numerous HCV variants to the communities during the 20th century in the background of a dynamic evolutionary history of the hepatitis C epidemic in Nigeria over the past three centuries.

Doctor, what does my positive test mean? From Bayesian textbook tasks to personalized risk communication

PubMed Central

Navarrete, Gorka; Correia, Rut; Sirota, Miroslav; Juanchich, Marie; Huepe, David

2015-01-01

Most of the research on Bayesian reasoning aims to answer theoretical questions about the extent to which people are able to update their beliefs according to Bayes' Theorem, about the evolutionary nature of Bayesian inference, or about the role of cognitive abilities in Bayesian inference. Few studies aim to answer practical, mainly health-related questions, such as, “What does it mean to have a positive test in a context of cancer screening?” or “What is the best way to communicate a medical test result so a patient will understand it?”. This type of research aims to translate empirical findings into effective ways of providing risk information. In addition, the applied research often adopts the paradigms and methods of the theoretically-motivated research. But sometimes it works the other way around, and the theoretical research borrows the importance of the practical question in the medical context. The study of Bayesian reasoning is relevant to risk communication in that, to be as useful as possible, applied research should employ specifically tailored methods and contexts specific to the recipients of the risk information. In this paper, we concentrate on the communication of the result of medical tests and outline the epidemiological and test parameters that affect the predictive power of a test—whether it is correct or not. Building on this, we draw up recommendations for better practice to convey the results of medical tests that could inform health policy makers (What are the drawbacks of mass screenings?), be used by health practitioners and, in turn, help patients to make better and more informed decisions. PMID:26441711

Bayesian State-Space Modelling of Conventional Acoustic Tracking Provides Accurate Descriptors of Home Range Behavior in a Small-Bodied Coastal Fish Species

PubMed Central

Alós, Josep; Palmer, Miquel; Balle, Salvador; Arlinghaus, Robert

2016-01-01

State-space models (SSM) are increasingly applied in studies involving biotelemetry-generated positional data because they are able to estimate movement parameters from positions that are unobserved or have been observed with non-negligible observational error. Popular telemetry systems in marine coastal fish consist of arrays of omnidirectional acoustic receivers, which generate a multivariate time-series of detection events across the tracking period. Here we report a novel Bayesian fitting of a SSM application that couples mechanistic movement properties within a home range (a specific case of random walk weighted by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process) with a model of observational error typical for data obtained from acoustic receiver arrays. We explored the performance and accuracy of the approach through simulation modelling and extensive sensitivity analyses of the effects of various configurations of movement properties and time-steps among positions. Model results show an accurate and unbiased estimation of the movement parameters, and in most cases the simulated movement parameters were properly retrieved. Only in extreme situations (when fast swimming speeds are combined with pooling the number of detections over long time-steps) the model produced some bias that needs to be accounted for in field applications. Our method was subsequently applied to real acoustic tracking data collected from a small marine coastal fish species, the pearly razorfish, Xyrichtys novacula. The Bayesian SSM we present here constitutes an alternative for those used to the Bayesian way of reasoning. Our Bayesian SSM can be easily adapted and generalized to any species, thereby allowing studies in freely roaming animals on the ecological and evolutionary consequences of home ranges and territory establishment, both in fishes and in other taxa. PMID:27119718

Silencing, positive selection and parallel evolution: busy history of primate cytochromes C.

PubMed

Pierron, Denis; Opazo, Juan C; Heiske, Margit; Papper, Zack; Uddin, Monica; Chand, Gopi; Wildman, Derek E; Romero, Roberto; Goodman, Morris; Grossman, Lawrence I

2011-01-01

Cytochrome c (cyt c) participates in two crucial cellular processes, energy production and apoptosis, and unsurprisingly is a highly conserved protein. However, previous studies have reported for the primate lineage (i) loss of the paralogous testis isoform, (ii) an acceleration and then a deceleration of the amino acid replacement rate of the cyt c somatic isoform, and (iii) atypical biochemical behavior of human cyt c. To gain insight into the cause of these major evolutionary events, we have retraced the history of cyt c loci among primates. For testis cyt c, all primate sequences examined carry the same nonsense mutation, which suggests that silencing occurred before the primates diversified. For somatic cyt c, maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses yielded the same tree topology. The evolutionary analyses show that a fast accumulation of non-synonymous mutations (suggesting positive selection) occurred specifically on the anthropoid lineage root and then continued in parallel on the early catarrhini and platyrrhini stems. Analysis of evolutionary changes using the 3D structure suggests they are focused on the respiratory chain rather than on apoptosis or other cyt c functions. In agreement with previous biochemical studies, our results suggest that silencing of the cyt c testis isoform could be linked with the decrease of primate reproduction rate. Finally, the evolution of cyt c in the two sister anthropoid groups leads us to propose that somatic cyt c evolution may be related both to COX evolution and to the convergent brain and body mass enlargement in these two anthropoid clades.

Silencing, Positive Selection and Parallel Evolution: Busy History of Primate Cytochromes c

PubMed Central

Pierron, Denis; Opazo, Juan C.; Heiske, Margit; Papper, Zack; Uddin, Monica; Chand, Gopi; Wildman, Derek E.; Romero, Roberto; Goodman, Morris; Grossman, Lawrence I.

2011-01-01

Cytochrome c (cyt c) participates in two crucial cellular processes, energy production and apoptosis, and unsurprisingly is a highly conserved protein. However, previous studies have reported for the primate lineage (i) loss of the paralogous testis isoform, (ii) an acceleration and then a deceleration of the amino acid replacement rate of the cyt c somatic isoform, and (iii) atypical biochemical behavior of human cyt c. To gain insight into the cause of these major evolutionary events, we have retraced the history of cyt c loci among primates. For testis cyt c, all primate sequences examined carry the same nonsense mutation, which suggests that silencing occurred before the primates diversified. For somatic cyt c, maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses yielded the same tree topology. The evolutionary analyses show that a fast accumulation of non-synonymous mutations (suggesting positive selection) occurred specifically on the anthropoid lineage root and then continued in parallel on the early catarrhini and platyrrhini stems. Analysis of evolutionary changes using the 3D structure suggests they are focused on the respiratory chain rather than on apoptosis or other cyt c functions. In agreement with previous biochemical studies, our results suggest that silencing of the cyt c testis isoform could be linked with the decrease of primate reproduction rate. Finally, the evolution of cyt c in the two sister anthropoid groups leads us to propose that somatic cyt c evolution may be related both to COX evolution and to the convergent brain and body mass enlargement in these two anthropoid clades. PMID:22028846

Phylogeny of the genus Yumtaax Boucher (Coleoptera, Passalidae, Proculini): Taxonomic and evolutionary implications with descriptions of three new species

PubMed Central

Beza-Beza, Cristian Fernando; Beck, James; Reyes-Castillo, Pedro; Jameson, Mary Liz

2017-01-01

Abstract Yumtaax Boucher (Coleoptera: Passalidae) is an endemic genus from the temperate sierras of Mexico and includes six narrowly distributed species. Yumtaax species have been assigned to several genera of Passalidae throughout history, and a phylogenetic approach is necessary to understand species delimitation and interspecific relationships. This study reconstructed the molecular phylogeny of six Yumtaax morphotypes using parsimony and Bayesian analysis of DNA sequence data from the ribosomal nuclear gene region 28S and the mitochondrial gene regions 12S and cytochrome oxidase I (COI) in addition to morphological characters. Analyses recovered two well-supported Yumtaax clades (the Yumtaax laticornis and Yumtaax imbellis clades) that are possible sister lineages. One synapomorphic morphological character state and the geographic isolation of the group provide corroborative evidence for monophyly. Molecular phylogenetic analyses and traditional morphological examinations also resulted in the discovery of two undescribed Yumtaax species and the discovery of two separate evolutionary lineages (cryptic species) within Yumtaax recticornis. As a result we describe three new species (Yumtaax veracrucensis Beza-Beza, Reyes-Castillo & Jameson, sp. n., Yumtaax cameliae Beza-Beza, Reyes-Castillo & Jameson, sp. n., and Yumtaax jimenezi Beza-Beza, Reyes-Castillo & Jameson, sp. n.), redescribe two species (Yumtaax recticornis [Burmeister 1847] and Yumtaax laticornis [Truqui 1857]), and provide a key to all nine Yumtaax species. This study is one of two studies to use molecular data to evaluate the evolutionary relationships of a genus of Bess Beetles (Passalidae), an ecologically important insect group exhibiting low morphological variability and heretofore lacking molecular phylogenetic study. PMID:28769637

Moving beyond qualitative evaluations of Bayesian models of cognition.

PubMed

Hemmer, Pernille; Tauber, Sean; Steyvers, Mark

2015-06-01

Bayesian models of cognition provide a powerful way to understand the behavior and goals of individuals from a computational point of view. Much of the focus in the Bayesian cognitive modeling approach has been on qualitative model evaluations, where predictions from the models are compared to data that is often averaged over individuals. In many cognitive tasks, however, there are pervasive individual differences. We introduce an approach to directly infer individual differences related to subjective mental representations within the framework of Bayesian models of cognition. In this approach, Bayesian data analysis methods are used to estimate cognitive parameters and motivate the inference process within a Bayesian cognitive model. We illustrate this integrative Bayesian approach on a model of memory. We apply the model to behavioral data from a memory experiment involving the recall of heights of people. A cross-validation analysis shows that the Bayesian memory model with inferred subjective priors predicts withheld data better than a Bayesian model where the priors are based on environmental statistics. In addition, the model with inferred priors at the individual subject level led to the best overall generalization performance, suggesting that individual differences are important to consider in Bayesian models of cognition.

Evolution of Dengue Virus Type 3 Genotype III in Venezuela: Diversification, Rates and Population Dynamics

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Dengue virus (DENV) is a member of the genus Flavivirus of the family Flaviviridae. DENV are comprised of four distinct serotypes (DENV-1 through DENV-4) and each serotype can be divided in different genotypes. Currently, there is a dramatic emergence of DENV-3 genotype III in Latin America. Nevertheless, we still have an incomplete understanding of the evolutionary forces underlying the evolution of this genotype in this region of the world. In order to gain insight into the degree of genetic variability, rates and patterns of evolution of this genotype in Venezuela and the South American region, phylogenetic analysis, based on a large number (n = 119) of envelope gene sequences from DENV-3 genotype III strains isolated in Venezuela from 2001 to 2008, were performed. Results Phylogenetic analysis revealed an in situ evolution of DENV-3 genotype III following its introduction in the Latin American region, where three different genetic clusters (A to C) can be observed among the DENV-3 genotype III strains circulating in this region. Bayesian coalescent inference analyses revealed an evolutionary rate of 8.48 × 10-4 substitutions/site/year (s/s/y) for strains of cluster A, composed entirely of strains isolated in Venezuela. Amino acid substitution at position 329 of domain III of the E protein (A→V) was found in almost all E proteins from Cluster A strains. Conclusions A significant evolutionary change between DENV-3 genotype III strains that circulated in the initial years of the introduction in the continent and strains isolated in the Latin American region in recent years was observed. The presence of DENV-3 genotype III strains belonging to different clusters was observed in Venezuela, revealing several introduction events into this country. The evolutionary rate found for Cluster A strains circulating in Venezuela is similar to the others previously established for this genotype in other regions of the world. This suggests a lack of correlation among DENV genotype III substitution rate and ecological pattern of virus spread. PMID:21087501

A Preliminary Bayesian Analysis of Incomplete Longitudinal Data from a Small Sample: Methodological Advances in an International Comparative Study of Educational Inequality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hsieh, Chueh-An; Maier, Kimberly S.

2009-01-01

The capacity of Bayesian methods in estimating complex statistical models is undeniable. Bayesian data analysis is seen as having a range of advantages, such as an intuitive probabilistic interpretation of the parameters of interest, the efficient incorporation of prior information to empirical data analysis, model averaging and model selection.…

The evolutionary history of seahorses (Syngnathidae: Hippocampus): molecular data suggest a West Pacific origin and two invasions of the Atlantic Ocean.

PubMed

Teske, Peter R; Cherry, Michael I; Matthee, Conrad A

2004-02-01

Sequence data derived from four markers (the nuclear RP1 and Aldolase and the mitochondrial 16S rRNA and cytochrome b genes) were used to determine the phylogenetic relationships among 32 species belonging to the genus Hippocampus. There were marked differences in the rate of evolution among these gene fragments, with Aldolase evolving the slowest and the mtDNA cytochrome b gene the fastest. The RP1 gene recovered the highest number of nodes supported by >70% bootstrap values from parsimony analysis and >95% posterior probabilities from Bayesian inference. The combined analysis based on 2317 nucleotides resulted in the most robust phylogeny. A distinct phylogenetic split was identified between the pygmy seahorse, Hippocampus bargibanti, and a clade including all other species. Three species from the western Pacific Ocean included in our study, namely H. bargibanti, H. breviceps, and H. abdominalis occupy basal positions in the phylogeny. This and the high species richness in the region suggests that the genus evolved somewhere in the West Pacific. There is also fairly strong molecular support for the remaining species being subdivided into three main evolutionary lineages: two West Pacific clades and a clade of species present in both the Indo-Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean. The phylogeny obtained herein suggests at least two independent colonization events of the Atlantic Ocean, once before the closure of the Tethyan seaway, and once afterwards.

Overcoming Species Boundaries in Peptide Identification with Bayesian Information Criterion-driven Error-tolerant Peptide Search (BICEPS)*

PubMed Central

Renard, Bernhard Y.; Xu, Buote; Kirchner, Marc; Zickmann, Franziska; Winter, Dominic; Korten, Simone; Brattig, Norbert W.; Tzur, Amit; Hamprecht, Fred A.; Steen, Hanno

2012-01-01

Currently, the reliable identification of peptides and proteins is only feasible when thoroughly annotated sequence databases are available. Although sequencing capacities continue to grow, many organisms remain without reliable, fully annotated reference genomes required for proteomic analyses. Standard database search algorithms fail to identify peptides that are not exactly contained in a protein database. De novo searches are generally hindered by their restricted reliability, and current error-tolerant search strategies are limited by global, heuristic tradeoffs between database and spectral information. We propose a Bayesian information criterion-driven error-tolerant peptide search (BICEPS) and offer an open source implementation based on this statistical criterion to automatically balance the information of each single spectrum and the database, while limiting the run time. We show that BICEPS performs as well as current database search algorithms when such algorithms are applied to sequenced organisms, whereas BICEPS only uses a remotely related organism database. For instance, we use a chicken instead of a human database corresponding to an evolutionary distance of more than 300 million years (International Chicken Genome Sequencing Consortium (2004) Sequence and comparative analysis of the chicken genome provide unique perspectives on vertebrate evolution. Nature 432, 695–716). We demonstrate the successful application to cross-species proteomics with a 33% increase in the number of identified proteins for a filarial nematode sample of Litomosoides sigmodontis. PMID:22493179

A Possible Geographic Origin of Endemic Hepatitis C Virus 6a in Hong Kong: Evidences for the Association with Vietnamese Immigration

PubMed Central

Zhou, Xiaoming; Chan, Paul K. S.; Tam, John S.; Tang, Julian W.

2011-01-01

Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV) 6a accounts for 23.6% of all HCV infections of the general population and 58.5% of intravenous drug users in Hong Kong. However, the geographical origin of this highly predominant HCV subgenotype is largely unknown. This study explores a hypothesis for one possible transmission route of HCV 6a to Hong Kong. Methods NS5A sequences derived from 26 HCV 6a samples were chosen from a five year period (1999–2004) from epidemiologically unrelated patients from Hong Kong. Partial-NS5A sequences (513-bp from nt 6728 to 7240) were adopted for Bayesian coalescent analysis to reconstruct the evolutionary history of HCV infections in Hong Kong using the BEAST v1.3 program. A rooted phylogenetic tree was drawn for these sequences by alignment with reference Vietnamese sequences. Demographic data were accessed from “The Statistic Yearbooks of Hong Kong”. Results Bayesian coalescent analysis showed that the rapid increase in 6a infections, which had increased more than 90-fold in Hong Kong from 1986 to 1994 correlated to two peaks of Vietnamese immigration to Hong Kong from 1978 to 1997. The second peak, which occurred from 1987 through 1997, overlapped with the rapid increase of HCV 6a occurrence in Hong Kong. Phylogenetic analyses have further revealed that HCV 6a strains from Vietnam may be ancestral to Hong Kong counterparts. Conclusions The high predominance of HCV 6a infections in Hong Kong was possibly associated with Vietnamese immigration during 1987–1997. PMID:21931867

A possible geographic origin of endemic hepatitis C virus 6a in Hong Kong: evidences for the association with Vietnamese immigration.

PubMed

Zhou, Xiaoming; Chan, Paul K S; Tam, John S; Tang, Julian W

2011-01-01

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) 6a accounts for 23.6% of all HCV infections of the general population and 58.5% of intravenous drug users in Hong Kong. However, the geographical origin of this highly predominant HCV subgenotype is largely unknown. This study explores a hypothesis for one possible transmission route of HCV 6a to Hong Kong. NS5A sequences derived from 26 HCV 6a samples were chosen from a five year period (1999-2004) from epidemiologically unrelated patients from Hong Kong. Partial-NS5A sequences (513-bp from nt 6728 to 7240) were adopted for Bayesian coalescent analysis to reconstruct the evolutionary history of HCV infections in Hong Kong using the BEAST v1.3 program. A rooted phylogenetic tree was drawn for these sequences by alignment with reference Vietnamese sequences. Demographic data were accessed from "The Statistic Yearbooks of Hong Kong". Bayesian coalescent analysis showed that the rapid increase in 6a infections, which had increased more than 90-fold in Hong Kong from 1986 to 1994 correlated to two peaks of Vietnamese immigration to Hong Kong from 1978 to 1997. The second peak, which occurred from 1987 through 1997, overlapped with the rapid increase of HCV 6a occurrence in Hong Kong. Phylogenetic analyses have further revealed that HCV 6a strains from Vietnam may be ancestral to Hong Kong counterparts. The high predominance of HCV 6a infections in Hong Kong was possibly associated with Vietnamese immigration during 1987-1997.

Informative Bayesian Type A uncertainty evaluation, especially applicable to a small number of observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, M.; Shirono, K.

2017-10-01

A criticism levelled at the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) is that it is based on a mixture of frequentist and Bayesian thinking. In particular, the GUM’s Type A (statistical) uncertainty evaluations are frequentist, whereas the Type B evaluations, using state-of-knowledge distributions, are Bayesian. In contrast, making the GUM fully Bayesian implies, among other things, that a conventional objective Bayesian approach to Type A uncertainty evaluation for a number n of observations leads to the impractical consequence that n must be at least equal to 4, thus presenting a difficulty for many metrologists. This paper presents a Bayesian analysis of Type A uncertainty evaluation that applies for all n ≥slant 2 , as in the frequentist analysis in the current GUM. The analysis is based on assuming that the observations are drawn from a normal distribution (as in the conventional objective Bayesian analysis), but uses an informative prior based on lower and upper bounds for the standard deviation of the sampling distribution for the quantity under consideration. The main outcome of the analysis is a closed-form mathematical expression for the factor by which the standard deviation of the mean observation should be multiplied to calculate the required standard uncertainty. Metrological examples are used to illustrate the approach, which is straightforward to apply using a formula or look-up table.

Mitochondrial phylogenomics of Hemiptera reveals adaptive innovations driving the diversification of true bugs

PubMed Central

Li, Hu; Leavengood, John M.; Chapman, Eric G.; Burkhardt, Daniel; Song, Fan; Jiang, Pei; Liu, Jinpeng; Cai, Wanzhi

2017-01-01

Hemiptera, the largest non-holometabolous order of insects, represents approximately 7% of metazoan diversity. With extraordinary life histories and highly specialized morphological adaptations, hemipterans have exploited diverse habitats and food sources through approximately 300 Myr of evolution. To elucidate the phylogeny and evolutionary history of Hemiptera, we carried out the most comprehensive mitogenomics analysis on the richest taxon sampling to date covering all the suborders and infraorders, including 34 newly sequenced and 94 published mitogenomes. With optimized branch length and sequence heterogeneity, Bayesian analyses using a site-heterogeneous mixture model resolved the higher-level hemipteran phylogeny as (Sternorrhyncha, (Auchenorrhyncha, (Coleorrhyncha, Heteroptera))). Ancestral character state reconstruction and divergence time estimation suggest that the success of true bugs (Heteroptera) is probably due to angiosperm coevolution, but key adaptive innovations (e.g. prognathous mouthpart, predatory behaviour, and haemelytron) facilitated multiple independent shifts among diverse feeding habits and multiple independent colonizations of aquatic habitats. PMID:28878063

Phylogenetic estimates of diversification rate are affected by molecular rate variation.

PubMed

Duchêne, D A; Hua, X; Bromham, L

2017-10-01

Molecular phylogenies are increasingly being used to investigate the patterns and mechanisms of macroevolution. In particular, node heights in a phylogeny can be used to detect changes in rates of diversification over time. Such analyses rest on the assumption that node heights in a phylogeny represent the timing of diversification events, which in turn rests on the assumption that evolutionary time can be accurately predicted from DNA sequence divergence. But there are many influences on the rate of molecular evolution, which might also influence node heights in molecular phylogenies, and thus affect estimates of diversification rate. In particular, a growing number of studies have revealed an association between the net diversification rate estimated from phylogenies and the rate of molecular evolution. Such an association might, by influencing the relative position of node heights, systematically bias estimates of diversification time. We simulated the evolution of DNA sequences under several scenarios where rates of diversification and molecular evolution vary through time, including models where diversification and molecular evolutionary rates are linked. We show that commonly used methods, including metric-based, likelihood and Bayesian approaches, can have a low power to identify changes in diversification rate when molecular substitution rates vary. Furthermore, the association between the rates of speciation and molecular evolution rate can cause the signature of a slowdown or speedup in speciation rates to be lost or misidentified. These results suggest that the multiple sources of variation in molecular evolutionary rates need to be considered when inferring macroevolutionary processes from phylogenies. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

An Exploratory Study Examining the Feasibility of Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Circuit Analysis Understanding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chung, Gregory K. W. K.; Dionne, Gary B.; Kaiser, William J.

2006-01-01

Our research question was whether we could develop a feasible technique, using Bayesian networks, to diagnose gaps in student knowledge. Thirty-four college-age participants completed tasks designed to measure conceptual knowledge, procedural knowledge, and problem-solving skills related to circuit analysis. A Bayesian network was used to model…

A comprehensive probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, C.; Qin, T. X.; Jiang, B.; Huang, C.

2018-02-01

Oil pipelines network is one of the most important facilities of energy transportation. But oil pipelines network accident may result in serious disasters. Some analysis models for these accidents have been established mainly based on three methods, including event-tree, accident simulation and Bayesian network. Among these methods, Bayesian network is suitable for probabilistic analysis. But not all the important influencing factors are considered and the deployment rule of the factors has not been established. This paper proposed a probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network. Most of the important influencing factors, including the key environment condition and emergency response are considered in this model. Moreover, the paper also introduces a deployment rule for these factors. The model can be used in probabilistic analysis and sensitive analysis of oil pipelines network accident.

Novel patterns of historical isolation, dispersal, and secondary contact across Baja California in the Rosy Boa (Lichanura trivirgata).

PubMed

Wood, Dustin A; Fisher, Robert N; Reeder, Tod W

2008-02-01

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence variation was examined in 131 individuals of the Rosy Boa (Lichanura trivirgata) from across the species range in southwestern North America. Bayesian inference and nested clade phylogeographic analyses (NCPA) were used to estimate relationships and infer evolutionary processes. These patterns were evaluated as they relate to previously hypothesized vicariant events and new insights are provided into the biogeographic and evolutionary processes important in Baja California and surrounding North American deserts. Three major lineages (Lineages A, B, and C) are revealed with very little overlap. Lineage A and B are predominately separated along the Colorado River and are found primarily within California and Arizona (respectively), while Lineage C consists of disjunct groups distributed along the Baja California peninsula as well as south-central Arizona, southward along the coastal regions of Sonora, Mexico. Estimated divergence time points (using a Bayesian relaxed molecular clock) and geographic congruence with postulated vicariant events suggest early extensions of the Gulf of California and subsequent development of the Colorado River during the Late Miocene-Pliocene led to the formation of these mtDNA lineages. Our results also suggest that vicariance hypotheses alone do not fully explain patterns of genetic variation. Therefore, we highlight the importance of dispersal to explain these patterns and current distribution of populations. We also compare the mtDNA lineages with those based on morphological variation and evaluate their implications for taxonomy.

Novel patterns of historical isolation, dispersal, and secondary contact across Baja California in the Rosy Boa (Lichanura trivirgata)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, D.A.; Fisher, R.N.; Reeder, T.W.

2008-01-01

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence variation was examined in 131 individuals of the Rosy Boa (Lichanura trivirgata) from across the species range in southwestern North America. Bayesian inference and nested clade phylogeographic analyses (NCPA) were used to estimate relationships and infer evolutionary processes. These patterns were evaluated as they relate to previously hypothesized vicariant events and new insights are provided into the biogeographic and evolutionary processes important in Baja California and surrounding North American deserts. Three major lineages (Lineages A, B, and C) are revealed with very little overlap. Lineage A and B are predominately separated along the Colorado River and are found primarily within California and Arizona (respectively), while Lineage C consists of disjunct groups distributed along the Baja California peninsula as well as south-central Arizona, southward along the coastal regions of Sonora, Mexico. Estimated divergence time points (using a Bayesian relaxed molecular clock) and geographic congruence with postulated vicariant events suggest early extensions of the Gulf of California and subsequent development of the Colorado River during the Late Miocene-Pliocene led to the formation of these mtDNA lineages. Our results also suggest that vicariance hypotheses alone do not fully explain patterns of genetic variation. Therefore, we highlight the importance of dispersal to explain these patterns and current distribution of populations. We also compare the mtDNA lineages with those based on morphological variation and evaluate their implications for taxonomy. ?? 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Contemporary genetic structure and postglacial demographic history of the black scorpionfish, Scorpaena porcus, in the Mediterranean and the Black Seas.

PubMed

Boissin, E; Micu, D; Janczyszyn-Le Goff, M; Neglia, V; Bat, L; Todorova, V; Panayotova, M; Kruschel, C; Macic, V; Milchakova, N; Keskin, Ç; Anastasopoulou, A; Nasto, I; Zane, L; Planes, S

2016-05-01

Understanding the distribution of genetic diversity in the light of past demographic events linked with climatic shifts will help to forecast evolutionary trajectories of ecosystems within the current context of climate change. In this study, mitochondrial sequences and microsatellite loci were analysed using traditional population genetic approaches together with Bayesian dating and the more recent approximate Bayesian computation scenario testing. The genetic structure and demographic history of a commercial fish, the black scorpionfish, Scorpaena porcus, was investigated throughout the Mediterranean and Black Seas. The results suggest that the species recently underwent population expansions, in both seas, likely concomitant with the warming period following the Last Glacial Maximum, 20 000 years ago. A weak contemporaneous genetic differentiation was identified between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. However, the genetic diversity was similar for populations of the two seas, suggesting a high number of colonizers entered the Black Sea during the interglacial period and/or the presence of a refugial population in the Black Sea during the glacial period. Finally, within seas, an east/west genetic differentiation in the Adriatic seems to prevail, whereas the Black Sea does not show any structured spatial genetic pattern of its population. Overall, these results suggest that the Black Sea is not that isolated from the Mediterranean, and both seas revealed similar evolutionary patterns related to climate change and changes in sea level. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using SPM 12’s Second-Level Bayesian Inference Procedure for fMRI Analysis: Practical Guidelines for End Users

PubMed Central

Han, Hyemin; Park, Joonsuk

2018-01-01

Recent debates about the conventional traditional threshold used in the fields of neuroscience and psychology, namely P < 0.05, have spurred researchers to consider alternative ways to analyze fMRI data. A group of methodologists and statisticians have considered Bayesian inference as a candidate methodology. However, few previous studies have attempted to provide end users of fMRI analysis tools, such as SPM 12, with practical guidelines about how to conduct Bayesian inference. In the present study, we aim to demonstrate how to utilize Bayesian inference, Bayesian second-level inference in particular, implemented in SPM 12 by analyzing fMRI data available to public via NeuroVault. In addition, to help end users understand how Bayesian inference actually works in SPM 12, we examine outcomes from Bayesian second-level inference implemented in SPM 12 by comparing them with those from classical second-level inference. Finally, we provide practical guidelines about how to set the parameters for Bayesian inference and how to interpret the results, such as Bayes factors, from the inference. We also discuss the practical and philosophical benefits of Bayesian inference and directions for future research. PMID:29456498

An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology.

PubMed

Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly M; Clifton, James P; van de Schoot, Rens; Tiemensma, Jitske

2017-09-01

The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of health psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation models, latent growth curve (and mixture) models, and hierarchical linear models. Likewise, Bayesian methods can be used with small sample sizes since they do not rely on large sample theory. In this article, we discuss several important components of Bayesian statistics as they relate to health-based inquiries. We discuss the incorporation and impact of prior knowledge into the estimation process and the different components of the analysis that should be reported in an article. We present an example implementing Bayesian estimation in the context of blood pressure changes after participants experienced an acute stressor. We conclude with final thoughts on the implementation of Bayesian statistics in health psychology, including suggestions for reviewing Bayesian manuscripts and grant proposals. We have also included an extensive amount of online supplementary material to complement the content presented here, including Bayesian examples using many different software programmes and an extensive sensitivity analysis examining the impact of priors.

Molecular and morphological data reveal non-monophyly and speciation in imperiled freshwater mussels (Anodontoides and Strophitus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Chase; Johnson, Nathan A.; Pfeiffer, John M.; Gangloff, Michael M.

2018-01-01

Accurate taxonomic placement is vital to conservation efforts considering many intrinsic biological characteristics of understudied species are inferred from closely related taxa. The rayed creekshell, Anodontoides radiatus (Conrad, 1834), exists in the Gulf of Mexico drainages from western Florida to Louisiana and has been petitioned for listing under the Endangered Species Act. We set out to resolve the evolutionary history of A. radiatus, primarily generic placement and species boundaries, using phylogenetic, morphometric, and geographic information. Our molecular matrix contained 3 loci: cytochrome c oxidase subunit I, NADH dehydrogenase subunit I, and the nuclear-encoded ribosomal internal transcribed spacer I. We employed maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference to estimate a phylogeny and test the monophyly of Anodontoides and Strophitus. We implemented two coalescent-based species delimitation models to test seven species models and evaluate species boundaries within A. radiatus. Concomitant to molecular data, we also employed linear morphometrics and geographic information to further evaluate species boundaries. Molecular and morphological evidence supports the inclusion of A. radiatus in the genus Strophitus, and we resurrect the binomial Strophitus radiatus to reflect their shared common ancestry. We also found strong support for polyphyly in Strophitus and advocate the resurrection of the genus Pseudodontoideus to represent ‘Strophitus’ connasaugaensis and ‘Strophitus’ subvexus. Strophitus radiatus exists in six well-supported clades that were distinguished as evolutionary independent lineages using Bayesian inference, maximum likelihood, and coalescent-based species delimitation models. Our integrative approach found evidence for as many as 4 evolutionary divergent clades within S. radiatus. Therefore, we formally describe two new species from the S. radiatus species complex (Strophitus williamsi and Strophitus pascagoulaensis) and recognize the potential for a third putative species (Strophitus sp. cf. pascagoulaensis). Our findings aid stakeholders in establishing conservation and management strategies for the members of Anodontoides, Strophitus, and Pseudodontoideus.

Uncertainty aggregation and reduction in structure-material performance prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zhen; Mahadevan, Sankaran; Ao, Dan

2018-02-01

An uncertainty aggregation and reduction framework is presented for structure-material performance prediction. Different types of uncertainty sources, structural analysis model, and material performance prediction model are connected through a Bayesian network for systematic uncertainty aggregation analysis. To reduce the uncertainty in the computational structure-material performance prediction model, Bayesian updating using experimental observation data is investigated based on the Bayesian network. It is observed that the Bayesian updating results will have large error if the model cannot accurately represent the actual physics, and that this error will be propagated to the predicted performance distribution. To address this issue, this paper proposes a novel uncertainty reduction method by integrating Bayesian calibration with model validation adaptively. The observation domain of the quantity of interest is first discretized into multiple segments. An adaptive algorithm is then developed to perform model validation and Bayesian updating over these observation segments sequentially. Only information from observation segments where the model prediction is highly reliable is used for Bayesian updating; this is found to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of uncertainty reduction. A composite rotorcraft hub component fatigue life prediction model, which combines a finite element structural analysis model and a material damage model, is used to demonstrate the proposed method.

A Two-Step Bayesian Approach for Propensity Score Analysis: Simulations and Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

2012-01-01

A two-step Bayesian propensity score approach is introduced that incorporates prior information in the propensity score equation and outcome equation without the problems associated with simultaneous Bayesian propensity score approaches. The corresponding variance estimators are also provided. The two-step Bayesian propensity score is provided for…

Comparative mitochondrial genomics of snakes: extraordinary substitution rate dynamics and functionality of the duplicate control region

PubMed Central

Jiang, Zhi J; Castoe, Todd A; Austin, Christopher C; Burbrink, Frank T; Herron, Matthew D; McGuire, Jimmy A; Parkinson, Christopher L; Pollock, David D

2007-01-01

Background The mitochondrial genomes of snakes are characterized by an overall evolutionary rate that appears to be one of the most accelerated among vertebrates. They also possess other unusual features, including short tRNAs and other genes, and a duplicated control region that has been stably maintained since it originated more than 70 million years ago. Here, we provide a detailed analysis of evolutionary dynamics in snake mitochondrial genomes to better understand the basis of these extreme characteristics, and to explore the relationship between mitochondrial genome molecular evolution, genome architecture, and molecular function. We sequenced complete mitochondrial genomes from Slowinski's corn snake (Pantherophis slowinskii) and two cottonmouths (Agkistrodon piscivorus) to complement previously existing mitochondrial genomes, and to provide an improved comparative view of how genome architecture affects molecular evolution at contrasting levels of divergence. Results We present a Bayesian genetic approach that suggests that the duplicated control region can function as an additional origin of heavy strand replication. The two control regions also appear to have different intra-specific versus inter-specific evolutionary dynamics that may be associated with complex modes of concerted evolution. We find that different genomic regions have experienced substantial accelerated evolution along early branches in snakes, with different genes having experienced dramatic accelerations along specific branches. Some of these accelerations appear to coincide with, or subsequent to, the shortening of various mitochondrial genes and the duplication of the control region and flanking tRNAs. Conclusion Fluctuations in the strength and pattern of selection during snake evolution have had widely varying gene-specific effects on substitution rates, and these rate accelerations may have been functionally related to unusual changes in genomic architecture. The among-lineage and among-gene variation in rate dynamics observed in snakes is the most extreme thus far observed in animal genomes, and provides an important study system for further evaluating the biochemical and physiological basis of evolutionary pressures in vertebrate mitochondria. PMID:17655768

Prior elicitation and Bayesian analysis of the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial.

PubMed

See, Craig W; Srinivasan, Muthiah; Saravanan, Somu; Oldenburg, Catherine E; Esterberg, Elizabeth J; Ray, Kathryn J; Glaser, Tanya S; Tu, Elmer Y; Zegans, Michael E; McLeod, Stephen D; Acharya, Nisha R; Lietman, Thomas M

2012-12-01

To elicit expert opinion on the use of adjunctive corticosteroid therapy in bacterial corneal ulcers. To perform a Bayesian analysis of the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial (SCUT), using expert opinion as a prior probability. The SCUT was a placebo-controlled trial assessing visual outcomes in patients receiving topical corticosteroids or placebo as adjunctive therapy for bacterial keratitis. Questionnaires were conducted at scientific meetings in India and North America to gauge expert consensus on the perceived benefit of corticosteroids as adjunct treatment. Bayesian analysis, using the questionnaire data as a prior probability and the primary outcome of SCUT as a likelihood, was performed. For comparison, an additional Bayesian analysis was performed using the results of the SCUT pilot study as a prior distribution. Indian respondents believed there to be a 1.21 Snellen line improvement, and North American respondents believed there to be a 1.24 line improvement with corticosteroid therapy. The SCUT primary outcome found a non-significant 0.09 Snellen line benefit with corticosteroid treatment. The results of the Bayesian analysis estimated a slightly greater benefit than did the SCUT primary analysis (0.19 lines verses 0.09 lines). Indian and North American experts had similar expectations on the effectiveness of corticosteroids in bacterial corneal ulcers; that corticosteroids would markedly improve visual outcomes. Bayesian analysis produced results very similar to those produced by the SCUT primary analysis. The similarity in result is likely due to the large sample size of SCUT and helps validate the results of SCUT.

Careful with Those Priors: A Note on Bayesian Estimation in Two-Parameter Logistic Item Response Theory Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marcoulides, Katerina M.

2018-01-01

This study examined the use of Bayesian analysis methods for the estimation of item parameters in a two-parameter logistic item response theory model. Using simulated data under various design conditions with both informative and non-informative priors, the parameter recovery of Bayesian analysis methods were examined. Overall results showed that…

A bayesian approach to classification criteria for spectacled eiders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, B.L.; Wade, P.R.; Stehn, R.A.; Cochrane, J.F.

1996-01-01

To facilitate decisions to classify species according to risk of extinction, we used Bayesian methods to analyze trend data for the Spectacled Eider, an arctic sea duck. Trend data from three independent surveys of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta were analyzed individually and in combination to yield posterior distributions for population growth rates. We used classification criteria developed by the recovery team for Spectacled Eiders that seek to equalize errors of under- or overprotecting the species. We conducted both a Bayesian decision analysis and a frequentist (classical statistical inference) decision analysis. Bayesian decision analyses are computationally easier, yield basically the same results, and yield results that are easier to explain to nonscientists. With the exception of the aerial survey analysis of the 10 most recent years, both Bayesian and frequentist methods indicated that an endangered classification is warranted. The discrepancy between surveys warrants further research. Although the trend data are abundance indices, we used a preliminary estimate of absolute abundance to demonstrate how to calculate extinction distributions using the joint probability distributions for population growth rate and variance in growth rate generated by the Bayesian analysis. Recent apparent increases in abundance highlight the need for models that apply to declining and then recovering species.

Dating the Cryptococcus gattii Dispersal to the North American Pacific Northwest

PubMed Central

Roe, Chandler C.; Bowers, Jolene; Oltean, Hanna; DeBess, Emilio; Dufresne, Philippe J.; McBurney, Scott; Overy, David P.; Wanke, Bodo; Lysen, Colleen; Chiller, Tom; Meyer, Wieland; Thompson, George R.; Lockhart, Shawn R.; Hepp, Crystal M.

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT The emergence of Cryptococcus gattii, previously regarded as a predominantly tropical pathogen, in the temperate climate of the North American Pacific Northwest (PNW) in 1999 prompted several questions. The most prevalent among these was the timing of the introduction of this pathogen to this novel environment. Here, we infer tip-dated timing estimates for the three clonal C. gattii populations observed in the PNW, VGIIa, VGIIb, and VGIIc, based on whole-genome sequencing of 134 C. gattii isolates and using Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees (BEAST). We estimated the nucleotide substitution rate for each lineage (1.59 × 10−8, 1.59 × 10−8, and 2.70 × 10−8, respectively) to be an order of magnitude higher than common neutral fungal mutation rates (2.0 × 10−9), indicating a microevolutionary rate (e.g., successive clonal generations in a laboratory) in comparison to a species’ slower, macroevolutionary rate (e.g., when using fossil records). The clonal nature of the PNW C. gattii emergence over a narrow number of years would therefore possibly explain our higher mutation rates. Our results suggest that the mean time to most recent common ancestor for all three sublineages occurred within the last 60 to 100 years. While the cause of C. gattii dispersal to the PNW is still unclear, our research estimates that the arrival is neither ancient nor very recent (i.e., <25 years ago), making a strong case for an anthropogenic introduction. IMPORTANCE The recent emergence of the pathogenic fungus Cryptococcus gattii in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) resulted in numerous investigations into the epidemiological and enzootic impacts, as well as multiple genomic explorations of the three primary molecular subtypes of the fungus that were discovered. These studies lead to the general conclusion that the subtypes identified likely emerged out of Brazil. Here, we conducted genomic dating analyses to determine the ages of the various lineages seen in the PNW and propose hypothetical causes for the dispersal events. Bayesian evolutionary analysis strongly suggests that these independent fungal populations in the PNW are all 60 to 100 years old, providing a timing that is subsequent to the opening of the Panama Canal, which allowed for more direct shipping between Brazil and the western North American coastline, a possible driving event for these fungal translocation events. PMID:29359190

Dating the Cryptococcus gattii Dispersal to the North American Pacific Northwest.

PubMed

Roe, Chandler C; Bowers, Jolene; Oltean, Hanna; DeBess, Emilio; Dufresne, Philippe J; McBurney, Scott; Overy, David P; Wanke, Bodo; Lysen, Colleen; Chiller, Tom; Meyer, Wieland; Thompson, George R; Lockhart, Shawn R; Hepp, Crystal M; Engelthaler, David M

2018-01-01

The emergence of Cryptococcus gattii , previously regarded as a predominantly tropical pathogen, in the temperate climate of the North American Pacific Northwest (PNW) in 1999 prompted several questions. The most prevalent among these was the timing of the introduction of this pathogen to this novel environment. Here, we infer tip-dated timing estimates for the three clonal C. gattii populations observed in the PNW, VGIIa, VGIIb, and VGIIc, based on whole-genome sequencing of 134 C. gattii isolates and using Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees (BEAST). We estimated the nucleotide substitution rate for each lineage (1.59 × 10 -8 , 1.59 × 10 -8 , and 2.70 × 10 -8 , respectively) to be an order of magnitude higher than common neutral fungal mutation rates (2.0 × 10 -9 ), indicating a microevolutionary rate (e.g., successive clonal generations in a laboratory) in comparison to a species' slower, macroevolutionary rate (e.g., when using fossil records). The clonal nature of the PNW C. gattii emergence over a narrow number of years would therefore possibly explain our higher mutation rates. Our results suggest that the mean time to most recent common ancestor for all three sublineages occurred within the last 60 to 100 years. While the cause of C. gattii dispersal to the PNW is still unclear, our research estimates that the arrival is neither ancient nor very recent (i.e., <25 years ago), making a strong case for an anthropogenic introduction. IMPORTANCE The recent emergence of the pathogenic fungus Cryptococcus gattii in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) resulted in numerous investigations into the epidemiological and enzootic impacts, as well as multiple genomic explorations of the three primary molecular subtypes of the fungus that were discovered. These studies lead to the general conclusion that the subtypes identified likely emerged out of Brazil. Here, we conducted genomic dating analyses to determine the ages of the various lineages seen in the PNW and propose hypothetical causes for the dispersal events. Bayesian evolutionary analysis strongly suggests that these independent fungal populations in the PNW are all 60 to 100 years old, providing a timing that is subsequent to the opening of the Panama Canal, which allowed for more direct shipping between Brazil and the western North American coastline, a possible driving event for these fungal translocation events.

CytoBayesJ: software tools for Bayesian analysis of cytogenetic radiation dosimetry data.

PubMed

Ainsbury, Elizabeth A; Vinnikov, Volodymyr; Puig, Pedro; Maznyk, Nataliya; Rothkamm, Kai; Lloyd, David C

2013-08-30

A number of authors have suggested that a Bayesian approach may be most appropriate for analysis of cytogenetic radiation dosimetry data. In the Bayesian framework, probability of an event is described in terms of previous expectations and uncertainty. Previously existing, or prior, information is used in combination with experimental results to infer probabilities or the likelihood that a hypothesis is true. It has been shown that the Bayesian approach increases both the accuracy and quality assurance of radiation dose estimates. New software entitled CytoBayesJ has been developed with the aim of bringing Bayesian analysis to cytogenetic biodosimetry laboratory practice. CytoBayesJ takes a number of Bayesian or 'Bayesian like' methods that have been proposed in the literature and presents them to the user in the form of simple user-friendly tools, including testing for the most appropriate model for distribution of chromosome aberrations and calculations of posterior probability distributions. The individual tools are described in detail and relevant examples of the use of the methods and the corresponding CytoBayesJ software tools are given. In this way, the suitability of the Bayesian approach to biological radiation dosimetry is highlighted and its wider application encouraged by providing a user-friendly software interface and manual in English and Russian. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The riddle of Tasmanian languages

PubMed Central

Bowern, Claire

2012-01-01

Recent work which combines methods from linguistics and evolutionary biology has been fruitful in discovering the history of major language families because of similarities in evolutionary processes. Such work opens up new possibilities for language research on previously unsolvable problems, especially in areas where information from other sources may be lacking. I use phylogenetic methods to investigate Tasmanian languages. Existing materials are so fragmentary that scholars have been unable to discover how many languages are represented in the sources. Using a clustering algorithm which identifies admixture, source materials representing more than one language are identified. Using the Neighbor-Net algorithm, 12 languages are identified in five clusters. Bayesian phylogenetic methods reveal that the families are not demonstrably related; an important result, given the importance of Tasmanian Aborigines for information about how societies have responded to population collapse in prehistory. This work provides insight into the societies of prehistoric Tasmania and illustrates a new utility of phylogenetics in reconstructing linguistic history. PMID:23015621

Bayesian data analysis in observational comparative effectiveness research: rationale and examples.

PubMed

Olson, William H; Crivera, Concetta; Ma, Yi-Wen; Panish, Jessica; Mao, Lian; Lynch, Scott M

2013-11-01

Many comparative effectiveness research and patient-centered outcomes research studies will need to be observational for one or both of two reasons: first, randomized trials are expensive and time-consuming; and second, only observational studies can answer some research questions. It is generally recognized that there is a need to increase the scientific validity and efficiency of observational studies. Bayesian methods for the design and analysis of observational studies are scientifically valid and offer many advantages over frequentist methods, including, importantly, the ability to conduct comparative effectiveness research/patient-centered outcomes research more efficiently. Bayesian data analysis is being introduced into outcomes studies that we are conducting. Our purpose here is to describe our view of some of the advantages of Bayesian methods for observational studies and to illustrate both realized and potential advantages by describing studies we are conducting in which various Bayesian methods have been or could be implemented.

Using Bayesian analysis in repeated preclinical in vivo studies for a more effective use of animals.

PubMed

Walley, Rosalind; Sherington, John; Rastrick, Joe; Detrait, Eric; Hanon, Etienne; Watt, Gillian

2016-05-01

Whilst innovative Bayesian approaches are increasingly used in clinical studies, in the preclinical area Bayesian methods appear to be rarely used in the reporting of pharmacology data. This is particularly surprising in the context of regularly repeated in vivo studies where there is a considerable amount of data from historical control groups, which has potential value. This paper describes our experience with introducing Bayesian analysis for such studies using a Bayesian meta-analytic predictive approach. This leads naturally either to an informative prior for a control group as part of a full Bayesian analysis of the next study or using a predictive distribution to replace a control group entirely. We use quality control charts to illustrate study-to-study variation to the scientists and describe informative priors in terms of their approximate effective numbers of animals. We describe two case studies of animal models: the lipopolysaccharide-induced cytokine release model used in inflammation and the novel object recognition model used to screen cognitive enhancers, both of which show the advantage of a Bayesian approach over the standard frequentist analysis. We conclude that using Bayesian methods in stable repeated in vivo studies can result in a more effective use of animals, either by reducing the total number of animals used or by increasing the precision of key treatment differences. This will lead to clearer results and supports the "3Rs initiative" to Refine, Reduce and Replace animals in research. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bayesian estimation of post-Messinian divergence times in Balearic Island lizards.

PubMed

Brown, R P; Terrasa, B; Pérez-Mellado, V; Castro, J A; Hoskisson, P A; Picornell, A; Ramon, M M

2008-07-01

Phylogenetic relationships and timings of major cladogenesis events are investigated in the Balearic Island lizards Podarcislilfordi and P.pityusensis using 2675bp of mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequences. Partitioned Bayesian and Maximum Parsimony analyses provided a well-resolved phylogeny with high node-support values. Bayesian MCMC estimation of node dates was investigated by comparing means of posterior distributions from different subsets of the sequence against the most robust analysis which used multiple partitions and allowed for rate heterogeneity among branches under a rate-drift model. Evolutionary rates were systematically underestimated and thus divergence times overestimated when sequences containing lower numbers of variable sites were used (based on ingroup node constraints). The following analyses allowed the best recovery of node times under the constant-rate (i.e., perfect clock) model: (i) all cytochrome b sequence (partitioned by codon position), (ii) cytochrome b (codon position 3 alone), (iii) NADH dehydrogenase (subunits 1 and 2; partitioned by codon position), (iv) cytochrome b and NADH dehydrogenase sequence together (six gene-codon partitions), (v) all unpartitioned sequence, (vi) a full multipartition analysis (nine partitions). Of these, only (iv) and (vi) performed well under the rate-drift model. These findings have significant implications for dating of recent divergence times in other taxa. The earliest P.lilfordi cladogenesis event (divergence of Menorcan populations), occurred before the end of the Pliocene, some 2.6Ma. Subsequent events led to a West Mallorcan lineage (2.0Ma ago), followed 1.2Ma ago by divergence of populations from the southern part of the Cabrera archipelago from a widely-distributed group from north Cabrera, northern and southern Mallorcan islets. Divergence within P.pityusensis is more recent with the main Ibiza and Formentera clades sharing a common ancestor at about 1.0Ma ago. Climatic and sea level changes are likely to have initiated cladogenesis, with lineages making secondary contact during periodic landbridge formation. This oscillating cross-archipelago pattern in which ancient divergence is followed by repeated contact resembles that seen between East-West refugia populations from mainland Europe.

Bayesian linkage and segregation analysis: factoring the problem.

PubMed

Matthysse, S

2000-01-01

Complex segregation analysis and linkage methods are mathematical techniques for the genetic dissection of complex diseases. They are used to delineate complex modes of familial transmission and to localize putative disease susceptibility loci to specific chromosomal locations. The computational problem of Bayesian linkage and segregation analysis is one of integration in high-dimensional spaces. In this paper, three available techniques for Bayesian linkage and segregation analysis are discussed: Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), importance sampling, and exact calculation. The contribution of each to the overall integration will be explicitly discussed.

Development and comparison of Bayesian modularization method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Xu, C.-Y.; Engeland, K.

2012-04-01

With respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, different approaches have been used in hydrological models. Bayesian method is one of the most widely used methods for uncertainty assessment of hydrological models, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayesian theorem. However, none of these applications can well treat the uncertainty in extreme flows of hydrological models' simulations. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization method approach in uncertainty assessment of conceptual hydrological models by considering the extreme flows. It includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by a new Bayesian modularization method approach and traditional Bayesian models using the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions are used in combination with traditional Bayesian: the AR (1) plus Normal and time period independent model (Model 1), the AR (1) plus Normal and time period dependent model (Model 2) and the AR (1) plus multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that (1) the simulations derived from Bayesian modularization method are more accurate with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value, and (2) the Bayesian modularization method performs best in uncertainty estimates of entire flows and in terms of the application and computational efficiency. The study thus introduces a new approach for reducing the extreme flow's effect on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian. Keywords: extreme flow, uncertainty assessment, Bayesian modularization, hydrological model, WASMOD

A Primer on Bayesian Analysis for Experimental Psychopathologists

PubMed Central

Krypotos, Angelos-Miltiadis; Blanken, Tessa F.; Arnaudova, Inna; Matzke, Dora; Beckers, Tom

2016-01-01

The principal goals of experimental psychopathology (EPP) research are to offer insights into the pathogenic mechanisms of mental disorders and to provide a stable ground for the development of clinical interventions. The main message of the present article is that those goals are better served by the adoption of Bayesian statistics than by the continued use of null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST). In the first part of the article we list the main disadvantages of NHST and explain why those disadvantages limit the conclusions that can be drawn from EPP research. Next, we highlight the advantages of Bayesian statistics. To illustrate, we then pit NHST and Bayesian analysis against each other using an experimental data set from our lab. Finally, we discuss some challenges when adopting Bayesian statistics. We hope that the present article will encourage experimental psychopathologists to embrace Bayesian statistics, which could strengthen the conclusions drawn from EPP research. PMID:28748068

Testing students' e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling.

PubMed

Salarzadeh Jenatabadi, Hashem; Moghavvemi, Sedigheh; Wan Mohamed Radzi, Che Wan Jasimah Bt; Babashamsi, Parastoo; Arashi, Mohammad

2017-01-01

Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students' intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data) were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods' results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated.

Testing students’ e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling

PubMed Central

Moghavvemi, Sedigheh; Wan Mohamed Radzi, Che Wan Jasimah Bt; Babashamsi, Parastoo; Arashi, Mohammad

2017-01-01

Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students’ intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data) were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods’ results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated. PMID:28886019

The Gaia-ESO Survey: open clusters in Gaia-DR1 . A way forward to stellar age calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randich, S.; Tognelli, E.; Jackson, R.; Jeffries, R. D.; Degl'Innocenti, S.; Pancino, E.; Re Fiorentin, P.; Spagna, A.; Sacco, G.; Bragaglia, A.; Magrini, L.; Prada Moroni, P. G.; Alfaro, E.; Franciosini, E.; Morbidelli, L.; Roccatagliata, V.; Bouy, H.; Bravi, L.; Jiménez-Esteban, F. M.; Jordi, C.; Zari, E.; Tautvaišiene, G.; Drazdauskas, A.; Mikolaitis, S.; Gilmore, G.; Feltzing, S.; Vallenari, A.; Bensby, T.; Koposov, S.; Korn, A.; Lanzafame, A.; Smiljanic, R.; Bayo, A.; Carraro, G.; Costado, M. T.; Heiter, U.; Hourihane, A.; Jofré, P.; Lewis, J.; Monaco, L.; Prisinzano, L.; Sbordone, L.; Sousa, S. G.; Worley, C. C.; Zaggia, S.

2018-05-01

Context. Determination and calibration of the ages of stars, which heavily rely on stellar evolutionary models, are very challenging, while representing a crucial aspect in many astrophysical areas. Aims: We describe the methodologies that, taking advantage of Gaia-DR1 and the Gaia-ESO Survey data, enable the comparison of observed open star cluster sequences with stellar evolutionary models. The final, long-term goal is the exploitation of open clusters as age calibrators. Methods: We perform a homogeneous analysis of eight open clusters using the Gaia-DR1 TGAS catalogue for bright members and information from the Gaia-ESO Survey for fainter stars. Cluster membership probabilities for the Gaia-ESO Survey targets are derived based on several spectroscopic tracers. The Gaia-ESO Survey also provides the cluster chemical composition. We obtain cluster parallaxes using two methods. The first one relies on the astrometric selection of a sample of bona fide members, while the other one fits the parallax distribution of a larger sample of TGAS sources. Ages and reddening values are recovered through a Bayesian analysis using the 2MASS magnitudes and three sets of standard models. Lithium depletion boundary (LDB) ages are also determined using literature observations and the same models employed for the Bayesian analysis. Results: For all but one cluster, parallaxes derived by us agree with those presented in Gaia Collaboration (2017, A&A, 601, A19), while a discrepancy is found for NGC 2516; we provide evidence supporting our own determination. Inferred cluster ages are robust against models and are generally consistent with literature values. Conclusions: The systematic parallax errors inherent in the Gaia DR1 data presently limit the precision of our results. Nevertheless, we have been able to place these eight clusters onto the same age scale for the first time, with good agreement between isochronal and LDB ages where there is overlap. Our approach appears promising and demonstrates the potential of combining Gaia and ground-based spectroscopic datasets. Based on observations collected with the FLAMES instrument at VLT/UT2 telescope (Paranal Observatory, ESO, Chile), for the Gaia-ESO Large Public Spectroscopic Survey (188.B-3002, 193.B-0936).Additional tables are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/612/A99

Phylodynamic analysis and molecular diversity of the avian infectious bronchitis virus of chickens in Brazil.

PubMed

Fraga, Aline Padilha de; Gräf, Tiago; Pereira, Cleiton Schneider; Ikuta, Nilo; Fonseca, André Salvador Kazantzi; Lunge, Vagner Ricardo

2018-07-01

Avian infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) is the etiological agent of a highly contagious disease, which results in severe economic losses to the poultry industry. The spike protein (S1 subunit) is responsible for the molecular diversity of the virus and many sero/genotypes are described around the world. Recently a new standardized classification of the IBV molecular diversity was conducted, based on phylogenetic analysis of the S1 gene sequences sampled worldwide. Brazil is one of the biggest poultry producers in the world and the present study aimed to review the molecular diversity and reconstruct the evolutionary history of IBV in the country. All IBV S1 gene sequences, with local and year of collection information available on GenBank, were retrieved. Phylogenetic analyses were carried out based on a maximum likelihood method for the classification of genotypes occurring in Brazil, according to the new classification. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses were performed with the Brazilian clade and related international sequences to determine the evolutionary history of IBV in Brazil. A total of 143 Brazilian sequences were classified as GI-11 and 46 as GI-1 (Mass). Within the GI-11 clade, we have identified a potential recombinant strain circulating in Brazil. Phylodynamic analysis demonstrated that IBV GI-11 lineage was introduced in Brazil in the 1950s (1951, 1917-1975 95% HPD) and population dynamics was mostly constant throughout the time. Despite the national vaccination protocols, our results show the widespread dissemination and maintenance of the IBV GI-11 lineage in Brazil and highlight the importance of continuous surveillance to evaluate the impact of currently used vaccine strains on the observed viral diversity of the country. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Bayesian statistics in medicine -- part II: main applications and inference].

PubMed

Montomoli, C; Nichelatti, M

2008-01-01

Bayesian statistics is not only used when one is dealing with 2-way tables, but it can be used for inferential purposes. Using the basic concepts presented in the first part, this paper aims to give a simple overview of Bayesian methods by introducing its foundation (Bayes' theorem) and then applying this rule to a very simple practical example; whenever possible, the elementary processes at the basis of analysis are compared to those of frequentist (classical) statistical analysis. The Bayesian reasoning is naturally connected to medical activity, since it appears to be quite similar to a diagnostic process.

Decoupled evolution of floral traits and climatic preferences in a clade of Neotropical Gesneriaceae.

PubMed

Serrano-Serrano, Martha Liliana; Perret, Mathieu; Guignard, Maïté; Chautems, Alain; Silvestro, Daniele; Salamin, Nicolas

2015-11-10

Major factors influencing the phenotypic diversity of a lineage can be recognized by characterizing the extent and mode of trait evolution between related species. Here, we compared the evolutionary dynamics of traits associated with floral morphology and climatic preferences in a clade composed of the genera Codonanthopsis, Codonanthe and Nematanthus (Gesneriaceae). To test the mode and specific components that lead to phenotypic diversity in this group, we performed a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of combined nuclear and plastid DNA sequences and modeled the evolution of quantitative traits related to flower shape and size and to climatic preferences. We propose an alternative approach to display graphically the complex dynamics of trait evolution along a phylogenetic tree using a wide range of evolutionary scenarios. Our results demonstrated heterogeneous trait evolution. Floral shapes displaced into separate regimes selected by the different pollinator types (hummingbirds versus insects), while floral size underwent a clade-specific evolution. Rates of evolution were higher for the clade that is hummingbird pollinated and experienced flower resupination, compared with species pollinated by bees, suggesting a relevant role of plant-pollinator interactions in lowland rainforest. The evolution of temperature preferences is best explained by a model with distinct selective regimes between the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and the other biomes, whereas differentiation along the precipitation axis was characterized by higher rates, compared with temperature, and no regime or clade-specific patterns. Our study shows different selective regimes and clade-specific patterns in the evolution of morphological and climatic components during the diversification of Neotropical species. Our new graphical visualization tool allows the representation of trait trajectories under parameter-rich models, thus contributing to a better understanding of complex evolutionary dynamics.

Molecular and phenotypic diversity in Chionactis occipitalis (Western Shovel-nosed Snake), with emphasis on the status of C. o. klauberi (Tucson Shovel-nosed Snake).

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, D.A.; Meik, J.M.; Holycross, A.T.; Fisher, R.N.; Vandergast, A.G.

2008-01-01

Chionactis occipitalis (Western Shovel-nosed Snake) is a small colubrid snake inhabiting the arid regions of the Mojave, Sonoran, and Colorado deserts. Morphological assessments of taxonomy currently recognize four subspecies. However, these taxonomic proposals were largely based on weak morphological differentiation and inadequate geographic sampling. Our goal was to explore evolutionary relationships and boundaries among subspecies of C. occipitalis, with particular focus on individuals within the known range of C. o. klauberi (Tucson Shovel-nosed snake). Population sizes and range for C. o. klauberi have declined over the last 25 years due to habitat alteration and loss prompting a petition to list this subspecies as endangered. We examined the phylogeography, population structure, and subspecific taxonomy of C. occipitalis across its geographic range with genetic analysis of 1100 bases of mitochondrial DNA sequence and reanalysis of 14 morphological characters from 1543 museum specimens. We estimated the species gene phylogeny from 81 snakes using Bayesian inference and explored possible factors influencing genetic variation using landscape genetic analyses. Phylogenetic and population genetic analyses reveal genetic isolation and independent evolutionary trajectories for two primary clades. Our data indicate that diversification between these clades has developed as a result of both historical vicariance and environmental isolating mechanisms. Thus these two clades likely comprise 'evolutionary significant units' (ESUs). Neither molecular nor morphological data are concordant with the traditional C. occipitalis subspecies taxonomy. Mitochondrial sequences suggest specimens recognized as C. o. klauberi are embedded in a larger geographic clade whose range has expanded from western Arizona populations, and these data are concordant with clinal longitudinal variation in morphology. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Soft-tissue anatomy of the primates: phylogenetic analyses based on the muscles of the head, neck, pectoral region and upper limb, with notes on the evolution of these muscles

PubMed Central

Diogo, R; Wood, B

2011-01-01

Apart from molecular data, nearly all the evidence used to study primate relationships comes from hard tissues. Here, we provide details of the first parsimony and Bayesian cladistic analyses of the order Primates based exclusively on muscle data. The most parsimonious tree obtained from the cladistic analysis of 166 characters taken from the head, neck, pectoral and upper limb musculature is fully congruent with the most recent evolutionary molecular tree of Primates. That is, this tree recovers not only the relationships among the major groups of primates, i.e. Strepsirrhini {Tarsiiformes [Platyrrhini (Cercopithecidae, Hominoidea)]}, but it also recovers the relationships within each of these inclusive groups. Of the 301 character state changes occurring in this tree, ca. 30% are non-homoplasic evolutionary transitions; within the 220 changes that are unambiguously optimized in the tree, ca. 15% are reversions. The trees obtained by using characters derived from the muscles of the head and neck are more similar to the most recent evolutionary molecular tree than are the trees obtained by using characters derived from the pectoral and upper limb muscles. It was recently argued that since the Pan/Homo split, chimpanzees accumulated more phenotypic adaptations than humans, but our results indicate that modern humans accumulated more muscle character state changes than chimpanzees, and that both these taxa accumulated more changes than gorillas. This overview of the evolution of the primate head, neck, pectoral and upper limb musculature suggests that the only muscle groups for which modern humans have more muscles than most other extant primates are the muscles of the face, larynx and forearm. PMID:21689100

Gradual and contingent evolutionary emergence of leaf mimicry in butterfly wing patterns.

PubMed

Suzuki, Takao K; Tomita, Shuichiro; Sezutsu, Hideki

2014-11-25

Special resemblance of animals to natural objects such as leaves provides a representative example of evolutionary adaptation. The existence of such sophisticated features challenges our understanding of how complex adaptive phenotypes evolved. Leaf mimicry typically consists of several pattern elements, the spatial arrangement of which generates the leaf venation-like appearance. However, the process by which leaf patterns evolved remains unclear. In this study we show the evolutionary origin and process for the leaf pattern in Kallima (Nymphalidae) butterflies. Using comparative morphological analyses, we reveal that the wing patterns of Kallima and 45 closely related species share the same ground plan, suggesting that the pattern elements of leaf mimicry have been inherited across species with lineage-specific changes of their character states. On the basis of these analyses, phylogenetic comparative methods estimated past states of the pattern elements and enabled reconstruction of the wing patterns of the most recent common ancestor. This analysis shows that the leaf pattern has evolved through several intermediate patterns. Further, we use Bayesian statistical methods to estimate the temporal order of character-state changes in the pattern elements by which leaf mimesis evolved, and show that the pattern elements changed their spatial arrangement (e.g., from a curved line to a straight line) in a stepwise manner and finally establish a close resemblance to a leaf venation-like appearance. Our study provides the first evidence for stepwise and contingent evolution of leaf mimicry.　 Leaf mimicry patterns evolved in a gradual, rather than a sudden, manner from a non-mimetic ancestor. Through a lineage of Kallima butterflies, the leaf patterns evolutionarily originated through temporal accumulation of orchestrated changes in multiple pattern elements.

Soft-tissue anatomy of the primates: phylogenetic analyses based on the muscles of the head, neck, pectoral region and upper limb, with notes on the evolution of these muscles.

PubMed

Diogo, R; Wood, B

2011-09-01

Apart from molecular data, nearly all the evidence used to study primate relationships comes from hard tissues. Here, we provide details of the first parsimony and Bayesian cladistic analyses of the order Primates based exclusively on muscle data. The most parsimonious tree obtained from the cladistic analysis of 166 characters taken from the head, neck, pectoral and upper limb musculature is fully congruent with the most recent evolutionary molecular tree of Primates. That is, this tree recovers not only the relationships among the major groups of primates, i.e. Strepsirrhini {Tarsiiformes [Platyrrhini (Cercopithecidae, Hominoidea)]}, but it also recovers the relationships within each of these inclusive groups. Of the 301 character state changes occurring in this tree, ca. 30% are non-homoplasic evolutionary transitions; within the 220 changes that are unambiguously optimized in the tree, ca. 15% are reversions. The trees obtained by using characters derived from the muscles of the head and neck are more similar to the most recent evolutionary molecular tree than are the trees obtained by using characters derived from the pectoral and upper limb muscles. It was recently argued that since the Pan/Homo split, chimpanzees accumulated more phenotypic adaptations than humans, but our results indicate that modern humans accumulated more muscle character state changes than chimpanzees, and that both these taxa accumulated more changes than gorillas. This overview of the evolution of the primate head, neck, pectoral and upper limb musculature suggests that the only muscle groups for which modern humans have more muscles than most other extant primates are the muscles of the face, larynx and forearm. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Anatomy © 2011 Anatomical Society of Great Britain and Ireland.

Prior Elicitation and Bayesian Analysis of the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial

PubMed Central

See, Craig W.; Srinivasan, Muthiah; Saravanan, Somu; Oldenburg, Catherine E.; Esterberg, Elizabeth J.; Ray, Kathryn J.; Glaser, Tanya S.; Tu, Elmer Y.; Zegans, Michael E.; McLeod, Stephen D.; Acharya, Nisha R.; Lietman, Thomas M.

2013-01-01

Purpose To elicit expert opinion on the use of adjunctive corticosteroid therapy in bacterial corneal ulcers. To perform a Bayesian analysis of the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial (SCUT), using expert opinion as a prior probability. Methods The SCUT was a placebo-controlled trial assessing visual outcomes in patients receiving topical corticosteroids or placebo as adjunctive therapy for bacterial keratitis. Questionnaires were conducted at scientific meetings in India and North America to gauge expert consensus on the perceived benefit of corticosteroids as adjunct treatment. Bayesian analysis, using the questionnaire data as a prior probability and the primary outcome of SCUT as a likelihood, was performed. For comparison, an additional Bayesian analysis was performed using the results of the SCUT pilot study as a prior distribution. Results Indian respondents believed there to be a 1.21 Snellen line improvement, and North American respondents believed there to be a 1.24 line improvement with corticosteroid therapy. The SCUT primary outcome found a non-significant 0.09 Snellen line benefit with corticosteroid treatment. The results of the Bayesian analysis estimated a slightly greater benefit than did the SCUT primary analysis (0.19 lines verses 0.09 lines). Conclusion Indian and North American experts had similar expectations on the effectiveness of corticosteroids in bacterial corneal ulcers; that corticosteroids would markedly improve visual outcomes. Bayesian analysis produced results very similar to those produced by the SCUT primary analysis. The similarity in result is likely due to the large sample size of SCUT and helps validate the results of SCUT. PMID:23171211

Phylogenetic relationships of South American lizards of the genus Stenocercus (Squamata: Iguania): A new approach using a general mixture model for gene sequence data.

PubMed

Torres-Carvajal, Omar; Schulte, James A; Cadle, John E

2006-04-01

The South American iguanian lizard genus Stenocercus includes 54 species occurring mostly in the Andes and adjacent lowland areas from northern Venezuela and Colombia to central Argentina at elevations of 0-4000m. Small taxon or character sampling has characterized all phylogenetic analyses of Stenocercus, which has long been recognized as sister taxon to the Tropidurus Group. In this study, we use mtDNA sequence data to perform phylogenetic analyses that include 32 species of Stenocercus and 12 outgroup taxa. Monophyly of this genus is strongly supported by maximum parsimony and Bayesian analyses. Evolutionary relationships within Stenocercus are further analyzed with a Bayesian implementation of a general mixture model, which accommodates variability in the pattern of evolution across sites. These analyses indicate a basal split of Stenocercus into two clades, one of which receives very strong statistical support. In addition, we test previous hypotheses using non-parametric and parametric statistical methods, and provide a phylogenetic classification for Stenocercus.

Molecular phylogenetic analysis of nuclear genes suggests a Cenozoic over-water dispersal origin for the Cuban solenodon.

PubMed

Sato, Jun J; Ohdachi, Satoshi D; Echenique-Diaz, Lazaro M; Borroto-Páez, Rafael; Begué-Quiala, Gerardo; Delgado-Labañino, Jorge L; Gámez-Díez, Jorgelino; Alvarez-Lemus, José; Nguyen, Son Truong; Yamaguchi, Nobuyuki; Kita, Masaki

2016-08-08

The Cuban solenodon (Solenodon cubanus) is one of the most enigmatic mammals and is an extremely rare species with a distribution limited to a small part of the island of Cuba. Despite its rarity, in 2012 seven individuals of S. cubanus were captured and sampled successfully for DNA analysis, providing new insights into the evolutionary origin of this species and into the origins of the Caribbean fauna, which remain controversial. We conducted molecular phylogenetic analyses of five nuclear genes (Apob, Atp7a, Bdnf, Brca1 and Rag1; total, 4,602 bp) from 35 species of the mammalian order Eulipotyphla. Based on Bayesian relaxed molecular clock analyses, the family Solenodontidae diverged from other eulipotyphlan in the Paleocene, after the bolide impact on the Yucatan Peninsula, and S. cubanus diverged from the Hispaniolan solenodon (S. paradoxus) in the Early Pliocene. The strikingly recent divergence time estimates suggest that S. cubanus and its ancestral lineage originated via over-water dispersal rather than vicariance events, as had previously been hypothesised.

treespace: Statistical exploration of landscapes of phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Jombart, Thibaut; Kendall, Michelle; Almagro-Garcia, Jacob; Colijn, Caroline

2017-11-01

The increasing availability of large genomic data sets as well as the advent of Bayesian phylogenetics facilitates the investigation of phylogenetic incongruence, which can result in the impossibility of representing phylogenetic relationships using a single tree. While sometimes considered as a nuisance, phylogenetic incongruence can also reflect meaningful biological processes as well as relevant statistical uncertainty, both of which can yield valuable insights in evolutionary studies. We introduce a new tool for investigating phylogenetic incongruence through the exploration of phylogenetic tree landscapes. Our approach, implemented in the R package treespace, combines tree metrics and multivariate analysis to provide low-dimensional representations of the topological variability in a set of trees, which can be used for identifying clusters of similar trees and group-specific consensus phylogenies. treespace also provides a user-friendly web interface for interactive data analysis and is integrated alongside existing standards for phylogenetics. It fills a gap in the current phylogenetics toolbox in R and will facilitate the investigation of phylogenetic results. © 2017 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Resources Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A “Shallow Phylogeny” of Shallow Barnacles (Chthamalus)

PubMed Central

Wares, John P.; Pankey, M. Sabrina; Pitombo, Fabio; Daglio, Liza Gómez; Achituv, Yair

2009-01-01

Background We present a multi-locus phylogenetic analysis of the shallow water (high intertidal) barnacle genus Chthamalus, focusing on member species in the western hemisphere. Understanding the phylogeny of this group improves interpretation of classical ecological work on competition, distributional changes associated with climate change, and the morphological evolution of complex cirripede phenotypes. Methodology and Findings We use traditional and Bayesian phylogenetic and ‘deep coalescent’ approaches to identify a phylogeny that supports the monophyly of the mostly American ‘fissus group’ of Chthamalus, but that also supports a need for taxonomic revision of Chthamalus and Microeuraphia. Two deep phylogeographic breaks were also found within the range of two tropical American taxa (C. angustitergum and C. southwardorum) as well. Conclusions Our data, which include two novel gene regions for phylogenetic analysis of cirripedes, suggest that much more evaluation of the morphological evolutionary history and taxonomy of Chthamalid barnacles is necessary. These data and associated analyses also indicate that the radiation of species in the late Pliocene and Pleistocene was very rapid, and may provide new insights toward speciation via transient allopatry or ecological barriers. PMID:19440543

Molecular phylogenetic analysis of nuclear genes suggests a Cenozoic over-water dispersal origin for the Cuban solenodon

PubMed Central

Sato, Jun J.; Ohdachi, Satoshi D.; Echenique-Diaz, Lazaro M.; Borroto-Páez, Rafael; Begué-Quiala, Gerardo; Delgado-Labañino, Jorge L.; Gámez-Díez, Jorgelino; Alvarez-Lemus, José; Nguyen, Son Truong; Yamaguchi, Nobuyuki; Kita, Masaki

2016-01-01

The Cuban solenodon (Solenodon cubanus) is one of the most enigmatic mammals and is an extremely rare species with a distribution limited to a small part of the island of Cuba. Despite its rarity, in 2012 seven individuals of S. cubanus were captured and sampled successfully for DNA analysis, providing new insights into the evolutionary origin of this species and into the origins of the Caribbean fauna, which remain controversial. We conducted molecular phylogenetic analyses of five nuclear genes (Apob, Atp7a, Bdnf, Brca1 and Rag1; total, 4,602 bp) from 35 species of the mammalian order Eulipotyphla. Based on Bayesian relaxed molecular clock analyses, the family Solenodontidae diverged from other eulipotyphlan in the Paleocene, after the bolide impact on the Yucatan Peninsula, and S. cubanus diverged from the Hispaniolan solenodon (S. paradoxus) in the Early Pliocene. The strikingly recent divergence time estimates suggest that S. cubanus and its ancestral lineage originated via over-water dispersal rather than vicariance events, as had previously been hypothesised. PMID:27498968

A Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert M.; Rodriguez, Daniel Taylor

2012-01-01

1. A Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data containing covariates of species occurrence and species detection probabilities is usually completed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in conjunction with software programs that can implement those methods for any statistical model, not just site-occupancy models. Although these software programs are quite flexible, considerable experience is often required to specify a model and to initialize the Markov chain so that summaries of the posterior distribution can be estimated efficiently and accurately. 2. As an alternative to these programs, we develop a Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data that include covariates of species occurrence and species detection probabilities. This Gibbs sampler is based on a class of site-occupancy models in which probabilities of species occurrence and detection are specified as probit-regression functions of site- and survey-specific covariate measurements. 3. To illustrate the Gibbs sampler, we analyse site-occupancy data of the blue hawker, Aeshna cyanea (Odonata, Aeshnidae), a common dragonfly species in Switzerland. Our analysis includes a comparison of results based on Bayesian and classical (non-Bayesian) methods of inference. We also provide code (based on the R software program) for conducting Bayesian and classical analyses of site-occupancy data.

The molecular systematics of blowflies and screwworm flies (Diptera: Calliphoridae) using 28S rRNA, COX1 and EF-1α: insights into the evolution of dipteran parasitism.

PubMed

McDonagh, Laura M; Stevens, Jamie R

2011-11-01

The Calliphoridae include some of the most economically significant myiasis-causing flies in the world - blowflies and screwworm flies - with many being notorious for their parasitism of livestock. However, despite more than 50 years of research, key taxonomic relationships within the family remain unresolved. This study utilizes nucleotide sequence data from the protein-coding genes COX1 (mitochondrial) and EF1α (nuclear), and the 28S rRNA (nuclear) gene, from 57 blowfly taxa to improve resolution of key evolutionary relationships within the family Calliphoridae. Bayesian phylogenetic inference was carried out for each single-gene data set, demonstrating significant topological difference between the three gene trees. Nevertheless, all gene trees supported a Calliphorinae-Luciliinae subfamily sister-lineage, with respect to Chrysomyinae. In addition, this study also elucidates the taxonomic and evolutionary status of several less well-studied groups, including the genus Bengalia (either within Calliphoridae or as a separate sister-family), genus Onesia (as a sister-genera to, or sub-genera within, Calliphora), genus Dyscritomyia and Lucilia bufonivora, a specialised parasite of frogs and toads. The occurrence of cross-species hybridisation within Calliphoridae is also further explored, focusing on the two economically significant species Lucilia cuprina and Lucilia sericata. In summary, this study represents the most comprehensive molecular phylogenetic analysis of family Calliphoridae undertaken to date.

Phylodynamic reconstruction of O CATHAY topotype foot-and-mouth disease virus epidemics in the Philippines.

PubMed

Di Nardo, Antonello; Knowles, Nick J; Wadsworth, Jemma; Haydon, Daniel T; King, Donald P

2014-08-24

Reconstructing the evolutionary history, demographic signal and dispersal processes from viral genome sequences contributes to our understanding of the epidemiological dynamics underlying epizootic events. In this study, a Bayesian phylogenetic framework was used to explore the phylodynamics and spatio-temporal dispersion of the O CATHAY topotype of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) that caused epidemics in the Philippines between 1994 and 2005. Sequences of the FMDV genome encoding the VP1 showed that the O CATHAY FMD epizootic in the Philippines resulted from a single introduction and was characterised by three main transmission hubs in Rizal, Bulacan and Manila Provinces. From a wider regional perspective, phylogenetic reconstruction of all available O CATHAY VP1 nucleotide sequences identified three distinct sub-lineages associated with country-based clusters originating in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), the Philippines and Taiwan. The root of this phylogenetic tree was located in Hong Kong SAR, representing the most likely source for the introduction of this lineage into the Philippines and Taiwan. The reconstructed O CATHAY phylodynamics revealed three chronologically distinct evolutionary phases, culminating in a reduction in viral diversity over the final 10 years. The analysis suggests that viruses from the O CATHAY topotype have been continually maintained within swine industries close to Hong Kong SAR, following the extinction of virus lineages from the Philippines and the reduced number of FMD cases in Taiwan.

Convergent Evolution Associated with Habitat Decouples Phenotype from Phylogeny in a Clade of Lizards

PubMed Central

Edwards, Shelley; Vanhooydonck, Bieke; Herrel, Anthony; Measey, G. John; Tolley, Krystal A.

2012-01-01

Convergent evolution can explain similarity in morphology between species, due to selection on a fitness-enhancing phenotype in response to local environmental conditions. As selective pressures on body morphology may be strong, these have confounded our understanding of the evolutionary relationships between species. Within the speciose African radiation of lacertid lizards (Eremiadini), some species occupy a narrow habitat range (e.g. open habitat, cluttered habitat, strictly rupicolous, or strictly psammophilic), which may exert strong selective pressures on lizard body morphology. Here we show that the overall body plan is unrelated to shared ancestry in the African radiation of Eremiadini, but is instead coupled to habitat use. Comprehensive Bayesian and likelihood phylogenies using multiple representatives from all genera (2 nuclear, 2 mitochondrial markers) show that morphologically convergent species thought to represent sister taxa within the same genus are distantly related evolutionary lineages (Ichnotropis squamulosa and Ichnotropis spp.; Australolacerta rupicola and A. australis). Hierarchical clustering and multivariate analysis of morphological characters suggest that body, and head, width and height (stockiness), all of which are ecologically relevant with respect to movement through habitat, are similar between the genetically distant species. Our data show that convergence in morphology, due to adaptation to similar environments, has confounded the assignment of species leading to misidentification of the taxonomic position of I. squamulosa and the Australolacerta species. PMID:23251601

Spatial Temporal Dynamics and Molecular Evolution of Re-Emerging Rabies Virus in Taiwan.

PubMed

Lin, Yung-Cheng; Chu, Pei-Yu; Chang, Mei-Yin; Hsiao, Kuang-Liang; Lin, Jih-Hui; Liu, Hsin-Fu

2016-03-17

Taiwan has been recognized by the World Organization for Animal Health as rabies-free since 1961. Surprisingly, rabies virus (RABV) was identified in a dead Formosan ferret badger in July 2013. Later, more infected ferret badgers were reported from different geographic regions of Taiwan. In order to know its evolutionary history and spatial temporal dynamics of this virus, phylogeny was reconstructed by maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods based on the full-length of glycoprotein (G), matrix protein (M), and nucleoprotein (N) genes. The evolutionary rates and phylogeographic were determined using Beast and SPREAD software. Phylogenetic trees showed a monophyletic group containing all of RABV isolates from Taiwan and it further separated into three sub-groups. The estimated nucleotide substitution rates of G, M, and N genes were between 2.49 × 10(-4)-4.75 × 10(-4) substitutions/site/year, and the mean ratio of dN/dS was significantly low. The time of the most recent common ancestor was estimated around 75, 89, and 170 years, respectively. Phylogeographic analysis suggested the origin of the epidemic could be in Eastern Taiwan, then the Formosan ferret badger moved across the Central Range of Taiwan to western regions and separated into two branches. In this study, we illustrated the evolution history and phylogeographic of RABV in Formosan ferret badgers.

Altitudinal gradients, biogeographic history and microhabitat adaptation affect fine-scale spatial genetic structure in African and Neotropical populations of an ancient tropical tree species.

PubMed

Torroba-Balmori, Paloma; Budde, Katharina B; Heer, Katrin; González-Martínez, Santiago C; Olsson, Sanna; Scotti-Saintagne, Caroline; Casalis, Maxime; Sonké, Bonaventure; Dick, Christopher W; Heuertz, Myriam

2017-01-01

The analysis of fine-scale spatial genetic structure (FSGS) within populations can provide insights into eco-evolutionary processes. Restricted dispersal and locally occurring genetic drift are the primary causes for FSGS at equilibrium, as described in the isolation by distance (IBD) model. Beyond IBD expectations, spatial, environmental or historical factors can affect FSGS. We examined FSGS in seven African and Neotropical populations of the late-successional rain forest tree Symphonia globulifera L. f. (Clusiaceae) to discriminate the influence of drift-dispersal vs. landscape/ecological features and historical processes on FSGS. We used spatial principal component analysis and Bayesian clustering to assess spatial genetic heterogeneity at SSRs and examined its association with plastid DNA and habitat features. African populations (from Cameroon and São Tomé) displayed a stronger FSGS than Neotropical populations at both marker types (mean Sp = 0.025 vs. Sp = 0.008 at SSRs) and had a stronger spatial genetic heterogeneity. All three African populations occurred in pronounced altitudinal gradients, possibly restricting animal-mediated seed dispersal. Cyto-nuclear disequilibria in Cameroonian populations also suggested a legacy of biogeographic history to explain these genetic patterns. Conversely, Neotropical populations exhibited a weaker FSGS, which may reflect more efficient wide-ranging seed dispersal by Neotropical bats and other dispersers. The population from French Guiana displayed an association of plastid haplotypes with two morphotypes characterized by differential habitat preferences. Our results highlight the importance of the microenvironment for eco-evolutionary processes within persistent tropical tree populations.

A tree of life based on ninety-eight expressed genes conserved across diverse eukaryotic species

PubMed Central

Jayaswal, Pawan Kumar; Dogra, Vivek; Shanker, Asheesh; Sharma, Tilak Raj

2017-01-01

Rapid advances in DNA sequencing technologies have resulted in the accumulation of large data sets in the public domain, facilitating comparative studies to provide novel insights into the evolution of life. Phylogenetic studies across the eukaryotic taxa have been reported but on the basis of a limited number of genes. Here we present a genome-wide analysis across different plant, fungal, protist, and animal species, with reference to the 36,002 expressed genes of the rice genome. Our analysis revealed 9831 genes unique to rice and 98 genes conserved across all 49 eukaryotic species analysed. The 98 genes conserved across diverse eukaryotes mostly exhibited binding and catalytic activities and shared common sequence motifs; and hence appeared to have a common origin. The 98 conserved genes belonged to 22 functional gene families including 26S protease, actin, ADP–ribosylation factor, ATP synthase, casein kinase, DEAD-box protein, DnaK, elongation factor 2, glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate, phosphatase 2A, ras-related protein, Ser/Thr protein phosphatase family protein, tubulin, ubiquitin and others. The consensus Bayesian eukaryotic tree of life developed in this study demonstrated widely separated clades of plants, fungi, and animals. Musa acuminata provided an evolutionary link between monocotyledons and dicotyledons, and Salpingoeca rosetta provided an evolutionary link between fungi and animals, which indicating that protozoan species are close relatives of fungi and animals. The divergence times for 1176 species pairs were estimated accurately by integrating fossil information with synonymous substitution rates in the comprehensive set of 98 genes. The present study provides valuable insight into the evolution of eukaryotes. PMID:28922368

Altitudinal gradients, biogeographic history and microhabitat adaptation affect fine-scale spatial genetic structure in African and Neotropical populations of an ancient tropical tree species

PubMed Central

Torroba-Balmori, Paloma; Budde, Katharina B.; Heer, Katrin; González-Martínez, Santiago C.; Olsson, Sanna; Scotti-Saintagne, Caroline; Sonké, Bonaventure; Dick, Christopher W.

2017-01-01

The analysis of fine-scale spatial genetic structure (FSGS) within populations can provide insights into eco-evolutionary processes. Restricted dispersal and locally occurring genetic drift are the primary causes for FSGS at equilibrium, as described in the isolation by distance (IBD) model. Beyond IBD expectations, spatial, environmental or historical factors can affect FSGS. We examined FSGS in seven African and Neotropical populations of the late-successional rain forest tree Symphonia globulifera L. f. (Clusiaceae) to discriminate the influence of drift-dispersal vs. landscape/ecological features and historical processes on FSGS. We used spatial principal component analysis and Bayesian clustering to assess spatial genetic heterogeneity at SSRs and examined its association with plastid DNA and habitat features. African populations (from Cameroon and São Tomé) displayed a stronger FSGS than Neotropical populations at both marker types (mean Sp = 0.025 vs. Sp = 0.008 at SSRs) and had a stronger spatial genetic heterogeneity. All three African populations occurred in pronounced altitudinal gradients, possibly restricting animal-mediated seed dispersal. Cyto-nuclear disequilibria in Cameroonian populations also suggested a legacy of biogeographic history to explain these genetic patterns. Conversely, Neotropical populations exhibited a weaker FSGS, which may reflect more efficient wide-ranging seed dispersal by Neotropical bats and other dispersers. The population from French Guiana displayed an association of plastid haplotypes with two morphotypes characterized by differential habitat preferences. Our results highlight the importance of the microenvironment for eco-evolutionary processes within persistent tropical tree populations. PMID:28771629

Comparative phylogeography and population genetics within Buteo lineatus reveals evidence of distinct evolutionary lineages

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hull, J.M.; Strobel, Bradley N.; Boal, C.W.; Hull, A.C.; Dykstra, C.R.; Irish, A.M.; Fish, A.M.; Ernest, H.B.

2008-01-01

Traditional subspecies classifications may suggest phylogenetic relationships that are discordant with evolutionary history and mislead evolutionary inference. To more accurately describe evolutionary relationships and inform conservation efforts, we investigated the genetic relationships and demographic histories of Buteo lineatus subspecies in eastern and western North America using 21 nuclear microsatellite loci and 375-base pairs of mitochondrial control region sequence. Frequency based analyses of mitochondrial sequence data support significant population distinction between eastern (B. l. lineatus/alleni/texanus) and western (B. l. elegans) subspecies of B. lineatus. This distinction was further supported by frequency and Bayesian analyses of the microsatellite data. We found evidence of differing demographic histories between regions; among eastern sites, mitochondrial data suggested that rapid population expansion occurred following the end of the last glacial maximum, with B. l. texanus population expansion preceding that of B. l. lineatus/alleni. No evidence of post-glacial population expansion was detected among western samples (B. l. elegans). Rather, microsatellite data suggest that the western population has experienced a recent bottleneck, presumably associated with extensive anthropogenic habitat loss during the 19th and 20th centuries. Our data indicate that eastern and western populations of B. lineatus are genetically distinct lineages, have experienced very different demographic histories, and suggest management as separate conservation units may be warranted. ?? 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

RECONSTRUCTING EXPOSURE SCENARIOS USING DOSE BIOMARKERS - AN APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

We use Bayesian uncertainty analysis to explore how to estimate pollutant exposures from biomarker concentrations. The growing number of national databases with exposure data makes such an analysis possible. They contain datasets of pharmacokinetic biomarkers for many polluta...

The VLT-FLAMES Tarantula Survey. XXVI. Properties of the O-dwarf population in 30 Doradus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabín-Sanjulián, C.; Simón-Díaz, S.; Herrero, A.; Puls, J.; Schneider, F. R. N.; Evans, C. J.; Garcia, M.; Najarro, F.; Brott, I.; Castro, N.; Crowther, P. A.; de Koter, A.; de Mink, S. E.; Gräfener, G.; Grin, N. J.; Holgado, G.; Langer, N.; Lennon, D. J.; Maíz Apellániz, J.; Ramírez-Agudelo, O. H.; Sana, H.; Taylor, W. D.; Vink, J. S.; Walborn, N. R.

2017-05-01

Context. The VLT-FLAMES Tarantula Survey has observed hundreds of O-type stars in the 30 Doradus region of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). Aims: We study the properties of a statistically significant sample of O-type dwarfs in the same star-forming region and test the latest atmospheric and evolutionary models of the early main-sequence phase of massive stars. Methods: We performed quantitative spectroscopic analysis of 105 apparently single O-type dwarfs. To determine stellar and wind parameters, we used the iacob-gbat package, an automatic procedure based on a large grid of atmospheric models that are calculated with the fastwind code. This package was developed for the analysis of optical spectra of O-type stars. In addition to classical techniques, we applied the Bayesian bonnsai tool to estimate evolutionary masses. Results: We provide a new calibration of effective temperature vs. spectral type for O-type dwarfs in the LMC, based on our homogeneous analysis of the largest sample of such objects to date and including all spectral subtypes. Good agreement with previous results is found, although the sampling at the earliest subtypes could be improved. Rotation rates and helium abundances are studied in an evolutionary context. We find that most of the rapid rotators (v sin I > 300 km s-1) in our sample have masses below 25 M⊙ and intermediate rotation-corrected gravities (3.9 < log gc < 4.1). Such rapid rotators are scarce at higher gravities (I.e. younger ages) and absent at lower gravities (larger ages). This is not expected from theoretical evolutionary models, and does not appear to be due to a selection bias in our sample. We compare the estimated evolutionary and spectroscopic masses, finding a trend that the former is higher for masses below 20 M⊙. This can be explained as a consequence of limiting our sample to the O-type stars, and we see no compelling evidence for a systematic mass discrepancy. For most of the stars in the sample we were unable to estimate the wind-strength parameter (hence mass-loss rates) reliably, particularly for objects with lower luminosity (log L/L⊙ ≲ 5.1). Only with ultraviolet spectroscopy will we be able to undertake a detailed investigation of the wind properties of these dwarfs. Based on observations at the European Southern Observatory Very Large Telescope in program 182.D-0222.Tables A.1 to B.2 are also available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/601/A79

Prevalence of cryptic species in morphologically uniform taxa - fast speciation and evolutionary radiation in Asian toads.

PubMed

Liu, Zuyao; Chen, Guoling; Zhu, Tianqi; Zeng, Zhaochi; Lyu, Zhitong; Wang, Jian; Messenger, Kevin; Greenberg, Anthony J; Guo, Zixiao; Yang, Ziheng; Shi, Suhua; Wang, Yingyong

2018-06-16

Diversity and distributions of cryptic species have long been a vexing issue. Identification of species boundaries is made difficult by the lack of obvious morphological differences. Here, we investigate the cryptic diversity and evolutionary history of an underappreciated group of Asian frog species (Megophrys) to explore the pattern and dynamic of amphibian cryptic species. We sequenced four mitochondrial genes and five nuclear genes and delineated species using multiple approaches, combining DNA and mating-call data. A Bayesian species tree was generated to estimate divergence times and to reconstruct ancestral ranges. Macroevolutionary analyses and hybridization tests were conducted to explore the evolutionary dynamics of this cryptic group. Our phylogenies support the current subgenera. We revealed 43 cryptic species, 158% higher than previously thought. The species-delimitation results were further confirmed by mating-call data and morphological divergence. We found that these Asian frogss entered China from the Sunda Shelf 48 Mya, followed by an ancient radiation event during middle Miocene. We confirmed the efficiency of the multispecies coalescent model for delimitation of species with low morphological diversity. Species diversity of Megophrys is severely underappreciated, and species distributions have been misestimated as a result. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Evolutionary inference via the Poisson Indel Process.

PubMed

Bouchard-Côté, Alexandre; Jordan, Michael I

2013-01-22

We address the problem of the joint statistical inference of phylogenetic trees and multiple sequence alignments from unaligned molecular sequences. This problem is generally formulated in terms of string-valued evolutionary processes along the branches of a phylogenetic tree. The classic evolutionary process, the TKF91 model [Thorne JL, Kishino H, Felsenstein J (1991) J Mol Evol 33(2):114-124] is a continuous-time Markov chain model composed of insertion, deletion, and substitution events. Unfortunately, this model gives rise to an intractable computational problem: The computation of the marginal likelihood under the TKF91 model is exponential in the number of taxa. In this work, we present a stochastic process, the Poisson Indel Process (PIP), in which the complexity of this computation is reduced to linear. The Poisson Indel Process is closely related to the TKF91 model, differing only in its treatment of insertions, but it has a global characterization as a Poisson process on the phylogeny. Standard results for Poisson processes allow key computations to be decoupled, which yields the favorable computational profile of inference under the PIP model. We present illustrative experiments in which Bayesian inference under the PIP model is compared with separate inference of phylogenies and alignments.

Evolutionary inference via the Poisson Indel Process

PubMed Central

Bouchard-Côté, Alexandre; Jordan, Michael I.

2013-01-01

We address the problem of the joint statistical inference of phylogenetic trees and multiple sequence alignments from unaligned molecular sequences. This problem is generally formulated in terms of string-valued evolutionary processes along the branches of a phylogenetic tree. The classic evolutionary process, the TKF91 model [Thorne JL, Kishino H, Felsenstein J (1991) J Mol Evol 33(2):114–124] is a continuous-time Markov chain model composed of insertion, deletion, and substitution events. Unfortunately, this model gives rise to an intractable computational problem: The computation of the marginal likelihood under the TKF91 model is exponential in the number of taxa. In this work, we present a stochastic process, the Poisson Indel Process (PIP), in which the complexity of this computation is reduced to linear. The Poisson Indel Process is closely related to the TKF91 model, differing only in its treatment of insertions, but it has a global characterization as a Poisson process on the phylogeny. Standard results for Poisson processes allow key computations to be decoupled, which yields the favorable computational profile of inference under the PIP model. We present illustrative experiments in which Bayesian inference under the PIP model is compared with separate inference of phylogenies and alignments. PMID:23275296

A hierarchical bayesian analysis of parasite prevalence and sociocultural outcomes: The role of structural racism and sanitation infrastructure.

PubMed

Ross, Cody T; Winterhalder, Bruce

2016-01-01

We conduct a revaluation of the Thornhill and Fincher research project on parasites using finely-resolved geographic data on parasite prevalence, individual-level sociocultural data, and multilevel Bayesian modeling. In contrast to the evolutionary psychological mechanisms linking parasites to human behavior and cultural characteristics proposed by Thornhill and Fincher, we offer an alternative hypothesis that structural racism and differential access to sanitation systems drive both variation in parasite prevalence and differential behaviors and cultural characteristics. We adopt a Bayesian framework to estimate parasite prevalence rates in 51 districts in eight Latin American countries using the disease status of 170,220 individuals tested for infection with the intestinal roundworm Ascaris lumbricoides (Hürlimann et al., []: PLoS Negl Trop Dis 5:e1404). We then use district-level estimates of parasite prevalence and individual-level social data from 5,558 individuals in the same 51 districts (Latinobarómetro, 2008) to assess claims of causal associations between parasite prevalence and sociocultural characteristics. We find, contrary to Thornhill and Fincher, that parasite prevalence is positively associated with preferences for democracy, negatively associated with preferences for collectivism, and not associated with violent crime rates or gender inequality. A positive association between parasite prevalence and religiosity, as in Fincher and Thornhill (: Behav Brain Sci 35:61-79), and a negative association between parasite prevalence and achieved education, as predicted by Eppig et al. (: Proc R S B: Biol Sci 277:3801-3808), become negative and unreliable when reasonable controls are included in the model. We find support for all predictions derived from our hypothesis linking structural racism to both parasite prevalence and cultural outcomes. We conclude that best practices in biocultural modeling require examining more than one hypothesis, retaining individual-level data and its associated variance whenever possible, and adopting multilevel techniques suited to the structuring of the data. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Bayesian approach to the modelling of α Cen A

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bazot, M.; Bourguignon, S.; Christensen-Dalsgaard, J.

2012-12-01

Determining the physical characteristics of a star is an inverse problem consisting of estimating the parameters of models for the stellar structure and evolution, and knowing certain observable quantities. We use a Bayesian approach to solve this problem for α Cen A, which allows us to incorporate prior information on the parameters to be estimated, in order to better constrain the problem. Our strategy is based on the use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to estimate the posterior probability densities of the stellar parameters: mass, age, initial chemical composition, etc. We use the stellar evolutionary code ASTEC to model the star. To constrain this model both seismic and non-seismic observations were considered. Several different strategies were tested to fit these values, using either two free parameters or five free parameters in ASTEC. We are thus able to show evidence that MCMC methods become efficient with respect to more classical grid-based strategies when the number of parameters increases. The results of our MCMC algorithm allow us to derive estimates for the stellar parameters and robust uncertainties thanks to the statistical analysis of the posterior probability densities. We are also able to compute odds for the presence of a convective core in α Cen A. When using core-sensitive seismic observational constraints, these can rise above ˜40 per cent. The comparison of results to previous studies also indicates that these seismic constraints are of critical importance for our knowledge of the structure of this star.

Remarkable convergent evolution in specialized parasitic Thecostraca (Crustacea)

PubMed Central

Pérez-Losada, Marcos; Høeg, Jens T; Crandall, Keith A

2009-01-01

Background The Thecostraca are arguably the most morphologically and biologically variable group within the Crustacea, including both suspension feeders (Cirripedia: Thoracica and Acrothoracica) and parasitic forms (Cirripedia: Rhizocephala, Ascothoracida and Facetotecta). Similarities between the metamorphosis found in the Facetotecta and Rhizocephala suggests a common evolutionary origin, but until now no comprehensive study has looked at the basic evolution of these thecostracan groups. Results To this end, we collected DNA sequences from three nuclear genes [18S rRNA (2,305), 28S rRNA (2,402), Histone H3 (328)] and 41 larval characters in seven facetotectans, five ascothoracidans, three acrothoracicans, 25 rhizocephalans and 39 thoracicans (ingroup) and 12 Malacostraca and 10 Copepoda (outgroup). Maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses showed the Facetotecta, Ascothoracida and Cirripedia each as monophyletic. The better resolved and highly supported DNA maximum likelihood and morphological-DNA Bayesian analysis trees depicted the main phylogenetic relationships within the Thecostraca as (Facetotecta, (Ascothoracida, (Acrothoracica, (Rhizocephala, Thoracica)))). Conclusion Our analyses indicate a convergent evolution of the very similar and highly reduced slug-shaped stages found during metamorphosis of both the Rhizocephala and the Facetotecta. This provides a remarkable case of convergent evolution and implies that the advanced endoparasitic mode of life known from the Rhizocephala and strongly indicated for the Facetotecta had no common origin. Future analyses are needed to determine whether the most recent common ancestor of the Thecostraca was free-living or some primitive form of ectoparasite. PMID:19374762

Bayesian Inference of Shared Recombination Hotspots Between Humans and Chimpanzees

PubMed Central

Wang, Ying; Rannala, Bruce

2014-01-01

Recombination generates variation and facilitates evolution. Recombination (or lack thereof) also contributes to human genetic disease. Methods for mapping genes influencing complex genetic diseases via association rely on linkage disequilibrium (LD) in human populations, which is influenced by rates of recombination across the genome. Comparative population genomic analyses of recombination using related primate species can identify factors influencing rates of recombination in humans. Such studies can indicate how variable hotspots for recombination may be both among individuals (or populations) and over evolutionary timescales. Previous studies have suggested that locations of recombination hotspots are not conserved between humans and chimpanzees. We made use of the data sets from recent resequencing projects and applied a Bayesian method for identifying hotspots and estimating recombination rates. We also reanalyzed SNP data sets for regions with known hotspots in humans using samples from the human and chimpanzee. The Bayes factors (BF) of shared recombination hotspots between human and chimpanzee across regions were obtained. Based on the analysis of the aligned regions of human chromosome 21, locations where the two species show evidence of shared recombination hotspots (with high BFs) were identified. Interestingly, previous comparative studies of human and chimpanzee that focused on the known human recombination hotspots within the β-globin and HLA regions did not find overlapping of hotspots. Our results show high BFs of shared hotspots at locations within both regions, and the estimated locations of shared hotspots overlap with the locations of human recombination hotspots obtained from sperm-typing studies. PMID:25261696

Bayesian Factor Analysis as a Variable Selection Problem: Alternative Priors and Consequences

PubMed Central

Lu, Zhao-Hua; Chow, Sy-Miin; Loken, Eric

2016-01-01

Factor analysis is a popular statistical technique for multivariate data analysis. Developments in the structural equation modeling framework have enabled the use of hybrid confirmatory/exploratory approaches in which factor loading structures can be explored relatively flexibly within a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) framework. Recently, a Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) approach (Muthén & Asparouhov, 2012) has been proposed as a way to explore the presence of cross-loadings in CFA models. We show that the issue of determining factor loading patterns may be formulated as a Bayesian variable selection problem in which Muthén and Asparouhov’s approach can be regarded as a BSEM approach with ridge regression prior (BSEM-RP). We propose another Bayesian approach, denoted herein as the Bayesian structural equation modeling with spike and slab prior (BSEM-SSP), which serves as a one-stage alternative to the BSEM-RP. We review the theoretical advantages and disadvantages of both approaches and compare their empirical performance relative to two modification indices-based approaches and exploratory factor analysis with target rotation. A teacher stress scale data set (Byrne, 2012; Pettegrew & Wolf, 1982) is used to demonstrate our approach. PMID:27314566

Application of a data-mining method based on Bayesian networks to lesion-deficit analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herskovits, Edward H.; Gerring, Joan P.

2003-01-01

Although lesion-deficit analysis (LDA) has provided extensive information about structure-function associations in the human brain, LDA has suffered from the difficulties inherent to the analysis of spatial data, i.e., there are many more variables than subjects, and data may be difficult to model using standard distributions, such as the normal distribution. We herein describe a Bayesian method for LDA; this method is based on data-mining techniques that employ Bayesian networks to represent structure-function associations. These methods are computationally tractable, and can represent complex, nonlinear structure-function associations. When applied to the evaluation of data obtained from a study of the psychiatric sequelae of traumatic brain injury in children, this method generates a Bayesian network that demonstrates complex, nonlinear associations among lesions in the left caudate, right globus pallidus, right side of the corpus callosum, right caudate, and left thalamus, and subsequent development of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, confirming and extending our previous statistical analysis of these data. Furthermore, analysis of simulated data indicates that methods based on Bayesian networks may be more sensitive and specific for detecting associations among categorical variables than methods based on chi-square and Fisher exact statistics.

Diagnostic accuracy of a bayesian latent group analysis for the detection of malingering-related poor effort.

PubMed

Ortega, Alonso; Labrenz, Stephan; Markowitsch, Hans J; Piefke, Martina

2013-01-01

In the last decade, different statistical techniques have been introduced to improve assessment of malingering-related poor effort. In this context, we have recently shown preliminary evidence that a Bayesian latent group model may help to optimize classification accuracy using a simulation research design. In the present study, we conducted two analyses. Firstly, we evaluated how accurately this Bayesian approach can distinguish between participants answering in an honest way (honest response group) and participants feigning cognitive impairment (experimental malingering group). Secondly, we tested the accuracy of our model in the differentiation between patients who had real cognitive deficits (cognitively impaired group) and participants who belonged to the experimental malingering group. All Bayesian analyses were conducted using the raw scores of a visual recognition forced-choice task (2AFC), the Test of Memory Malingering (TOMM, Trial 2), and the Word Memory Test (WMT, primary effort subtests). The first analysis showed 100% accuracy for the Bayesian model in distinguishing participants of both groups with all effort measures. The second analysis showed outstanding overall accuracy of the Bayesian model when estimates were obtained from the 2AFC and the TOMM raw scores. Diagnostic accuracy of the Bayesian model diminished when using the WMT total raw scores. Despite, overall diagnostic accuracy can still be considered excellent. The most plausible explanation for this decrement is the low performance in verbal recognition and fluency tasks of some patients of the cognitively impaired group. Additionally, the Bayesian model provides individual estimates, p(zi |D), of examinees' effort levels. In conclusion, both high classification accuracy levels and Bayesian individual estimates of effort may be very useful for clinicians when assessing for effort in medico-legal settings.

Large-scale genomic analyses reveal the population structure and evolutionary trends of Streptococcus agalactiae strains in Brazilian fish farms.

PubMed

Barony, Gustavo M; Tavares, Guilherme C; Pereira, Felipe L; Carvalho, Alex F; Dorella, Fernanda A; Leal, Carlos A G; Figueiredo, Henrique C P

2017-10-19

Streptococcus agalactiae is a major pathogen and a hindrance on tilapia farming worldwide. The aims of this work were to analyze the genomic evolution of Brazilian strains of S. agalactiae and to establish spatial and temporal relations between strains isolated from different outbreaks of streptococcosis. A total of 39 strains were obtained from outbreaks and their whole genomes were sequenced and annotated for comparative analysis of multilocus sequence typing, genomic similarity and whole genome multilocus sequence typing (wgMLST). The Brazilian strains presented two sequence types, including a newly described ST, and a non-typeable lineage. The use of wgMLST could differentiate each strain in a single clone and was used to establish temporal and geographical correlations among strains. Bayesian phylogenomic analysis suggests that the studied Brazilian population was co-introduced in the country with their host, approximately 60 years ago. Brazilian strains of S. agalactiae were shown to be heterogeneous in their genome sequences and were distributed in different regions of the country according to their genotype, which allowed the use of wgMLST analysis to track each outbreak event individually.

Deep phylogeographic divergence and cytonuclear discordance in the grasshopper Oedaleus decorus.

PubMed

Kindler, Eveline; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Heckel, Gerald

2012-11-01

The grasshopper Oedaleus decorus is a thermophilic insect with a large, mostly south-Palaearctic distribution range, stretching from the Mediterranean regions in Europe to Central-Asia and China. In this study, we analyzed the extent of phylogenetic divergence and the recent evolutionary history of the species based on 274 specimens from 26 localities across the distribution range in Europe. Phylogenetic relationships were determined using sequences of two mitochondrial loci (ctr, ND2) with neighbour-joining and Bayesian methods. Additionally, genetic differentiation was analyzed based on mitochondrial DNA and 11 microsatellite markers using F-statistics, model-free multivariate and model-based Bayesian clustering approaches. Phylogenetic analyses detected consistently two highly divergent, allopatrically distributed lineages within O. decorus. The divergence among these Western and Eastern lineages meeting in the region of the Alps was similar to the divergence of each lineage to the sister species O. asiaticus. Genetic differentiation for ctr was extremely high between Western and Eastern grasshopper populations (F(ct)=0.95). Microsatellite markers detected much lower but nevertheless very significant genetic structure among population samples. The nuclear data also demonstrated a case of cytonuclear discordance because the affiliation with mitochondrial lineages was incongruent in Northern Italy. Taken together these results provide evidence of an ancient separation within Oedaleus and either historical introgression of mtDNA among lineages and/or ongoing sex-specific gene flow in this grasshopper. Our study stresses the importance of multilocus approaches for unravelling the history and status of taxa of uncertain evolutionary divergence. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian inference of selection in a heterogeneous environment from genetic time-series data.

PubMed

Gompert, Zachariah

2016-01-01

Evolutionary geneticists have sought to characterize the causes and molecular targets of selection in natural populations for many years. Although this research programme has been somewhat successful, most statistical methods employed were designed to detect consistent, weak to moderate selection. In contrast, phenotypic studies in nature show that selection varies in time and that individual bouts of selection can be strong. Measurements of the genomic consequences of such fluctuating selection could help test and refine hypotheses concerning the causes of ecological specialization and the maintenance of genetic variation in populations. Herein, I proposed a Bayesian nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model to estimate effective population sizes and quantify variable selection in heterogeneous environments from genetic time-series data. The model is described and then evaluated using a series of simulated data, including cases where selection occurs on a trait with a simple or polygenic molecular basis. The proposed method accurately distinguished neutral loci from non-neutral loci under strong selection, but not from those under weak selection. Selection coefficients were accurately estimated when selection was constant or when the fitness values of genotypes varied linearly with the environment, but these estimates were less accurate when fitness was polygenic or the relationship between the environment and the fitness of genotypes was nonlinear. Past studies of temporal evolutionary dynamics in laboratory populations have been remarkably successful. The proposed method makes similar analyses of genetic time-series data from natural populations more feasible and thereby could help answer fundamental questions about the causes and consequences of evolution in the wild. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Adaptive MCMC in Bayesian phylogenetics: an application to analyzing partitioned data in BEAST.

PubMed

Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Rambaut, Andrew; Suchard, Marc A

2017-06-15

Advances in sequencing technology continue to deliver increasingly large molecular sequence datasets that are often heavily partitioned in order to accurately model the underlying evolutionary processes. In phylogenetic analyses, partitioning strategies involve estimating conditionally independent models of molecular evolution for different genes and different positions within those genes, requiring a large number of evolutionary parameters that have to be estimated, leading to an increased computational burden for such analyses. The past two decades have also seen the rise of multi-core processors, both in the central processing unit (CPU) and Graphics processing unit processor markets, enabling massively parallel computations that are not yet fully exploited by many software packages for multipartite analyses. We here propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach using an adaptive multivariate transition kernel to estimate in parallel a large number of parameters, split across partitioned data, by exploiting multi-core processing. Across several real-world examples, we demonstrate that our approach enables the estimation of these multipartite parameters more efficiently than standard approaches that typically use a mixture of univariate transition kernels. In one case, when estimating the relative rate parameter of the non-coding partition in a heterochronous dataset, MCMC integration efficiency improves by > 14-fold. Our implementation is part of the BEAST code base, a widely used open source software package to perform Bayesian phylogenetic inference. guy.baele@kuleuven.be. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Evolutionary History of Wild Barley (Hordeum vulgare subsp. spontaneum) Analyzed Using Multilocus Sequence Data and Paleodistribution Modeling

PubMed Central

Jakob, Sabine S.; Rödder, Dennis; Engler, Jan O.; Shaaf, Salar; Özkan, Hakan; Blattner, Frank R.; Kilian, Benjamin

2014-01-01

Studies of Hordeum vulgare subsp. spontaneum, the wild progenitor of cultivated barley, have mostly relied on materials collected decades ago and maintained since then ex situ in germplasm repositories. We analyzed spatial genetic variation in wild barley populations collected rather recently, exploring sequence variations at seven single-copy nuclear loci, and inferred the relationships among these populations and toward the genepool of the crop. The wild barley collection covers the whole natural distribution area from the Mediterranean to Middle Asia. In contrast to earlier studies, Bayesian assignment analyses revealed three population clusters, in the Levant, Turkey, and east of Turkey, respectively. Genetic diversity was exceptionally high in the Levant, while eastern populations were depleted of private alleles. Species distribution modeling based on climate parameters and extant occurrence points of the taxon inferred suitable habitat conditions during the ice-age, particularly in the Levant and Turkey. Together with the ecologically wide range of habitats, they might contribute to structured but long-term stable populations in this region and their high genetic diversity. For recently collected individuals, Bayesian assignment to geographic clusters was generally unambiguous, but materials from genebanks often showed accessions that were not placed according to their assumed geographic origin or showed traces of introgression from cultivated barley. We assign this to gene flow among accessions during ex situ maintenance. Evolutionary studies based on such materials might therefore result in wrong conclusions regarding the history of the species or the origin and mode of domestication of the crop, depending on the accessions included. PMID:24586028

Phylodynamics and evolutionary epidemiology of African swine fever p72-CVR genes in Eurasia and Africa.

PubMed

Alkhamis, Moh A; Gallardo, Carmina; Jurado, Cristina; Soler, Alejandro; Arias, Marisa; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José M

2018-01-01

African swine fever (ASF) is a complex infectious disease of swine that constitutes devastating impacts on animal health and the world economy. Here, we investigated the evolutionary epidemiology of ASF virus (ASFV) in Eurasia and Africa using the concatenated gene sequences of the viral protein 72 and the central variable region of isolates collected between 1960 and 2015. We used Bayesian phylodynamic models to reconstruct the evolutionary history of the virus, to identify virus population demographics and to quantify dispersal patterns between host species. Results suggest that ASFV exhibited a significantly high evolutionary rate and population growth through time since its divergence in the 18th century from East Africa, with no signs of decline till recent years. This increase corresponds to the growing pig trade activities between continents during the 19th century, and may be attributed to an evolutionary drift that resulted from either continuous circulation or maintenance of the virus within Africa and Eurasia. Furthermore, results implicate wild suids as the ancestral host species (root state posterior probability = 0.87) for ASFV in the early 1700s in Africa. Moreover, results indicate the transmission cycle between wild suids and pigs is an important cycle for ASFV spread and maintenance in pig populations, while ticks are an important natural reservoir that can facilitate ASFV spread and maintenance in wild swine populations. We illustrated the prospects of phylodynamic methods in improving risk-based surveillance, support of effective animal health policies, and epidemic preparedness in countries at high risk of ASFV incursion.

Phylodynamics and evolutionary epidemiology of African swine fever p72-CVR genes in Eurasia and Africa

PubMed Central

Jurado, Cristina; Soler, Alejandro; Arias, Marisa; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José M.

2018-01-01

African swine fever (ASF) is a complex infectious disease of swine that constitutes devastating impacts on animal health and the world economy. Here, we investigated the evolutionary epidemiology of ASF virus (ASFV) in Eurasia and Africa using the concatenated gene sequences of the viral protein 72 and the central variable region of isolates collected between 1960 and 2015. We used Bayesian phylodynamic models to reconstruct the evolutionary history of the virus, to identify virus population demographics and to quantify dispersal patterns between host species. Results suggest that ASFV exhibited a significantly high evolutionary rate and population growth through time since its divergence in the 18th century from East Africa, with no signs of decline till recent years. This increase corresponds to the growing pig trade activities between continents during the 19th century, and may be attributed to an evolutionary drift that resulted from either continuous circulation or maintenance of the virus within Africa and Eurasia. Furthermore, results implicate wild suids as the ancestral host species (root state posterior probability = 0.87) for ASFV in the early 1700s in Africa. Moreover, results indicate the transmission cycle between wild suids and pigs is an important cycle for ASFV spread and maintenance in pig populations, while ticks are an important natural reservoir that can facilitate ASFV spread and maintenance in wild swine populations. We illustrated the prospects of phylodynamic methods in improving risk-based surveillance, support of effective animal health policies, and epidemic preparedness in countries at high risk of ASFV incursion. PMID:29489860

The impact of using informative priors in a Bayesian cost-effectiveness analysis: an application of endovascular versus open surgical repair for abdominal aortic aneurysms in high-risk patients.

PubMed

McCarron, C Elizabeth; Pullenayegum, Eleanor M; Thabane, Lehana; Goeree, Ron; Tarride, Jean-Eric

2013-04-01

Bayesian methods have been proposed as a way of synthesizing all available evidence to inform decision making. However, few practical applications of the use of Bayesian methods for combining patient-level data (i.e., trial) with additional evidence (e.g., literature) exist in the cost-effectiveness literature. The objective of this study was to compare a Bayesian cost-effectiveness analysis using informative priors to a standard non-Bayesian nonparametric method to assess the impact of incorporating additional information into a cost-effectiveness analysis. Patient-level data from a previously published nonrandomized study were analyzed using traditional nonparametric bootstrap techniques and bivariate normal Bayesian models with vague and informative priors. Two different types of informative priors were considered to reflect different valuations of the additional evidence relative to the patient-level data (i.e., "face value" and "skeptical"). The impact of using different distributions and valuations was assessed in a sensitivity analysis. Models were compared in terms of incremental net monetary benefit (INMB) and cost-effectiveness acceptability frontiers (CEAFs). The bootstrapping and Bayesian analyses using vague priors provided similar results. The most pronounced impact of incorporating the informative priors was the increase in estimated life years in the control arm relative to what was observed in the patient-level data alone. Consequently, the incremental difference in life years originally observed in the patient-level data was reduced, and the INMB and CEAF changed accordingly. The results of this study demonstrate the potential impact and importance of incorporating additional information into an analysis of patient-level data, suggesting this could alter decisions as to whether a treatment should be adopted and whether more information should be acquired.

Bayesian analyses of Yemeni mitochondrial genomes suggest multiple migration events with Africa and Western Eurasia.

PubMed

Vyas, Deven N; Kitchen, Andrew; Miró-Herrans, Aida T; Pearson, Laurel N; Al-Meeri, Ali; Mulligan, Connie J

2016-03-01

Anatomically, modern humans are thought to have migrated out of Africa ∼60,000 years ago in the first successful global dispersal. This initial migration may have passed through Yemen, a region that has experienced multiple migrations events with Africa and Eurasia throughout human history. We use Bayesian phylogenetics to determine how ancient and recent migrations have shaped Yemeni mitogenomic variation. We sequenced 113 mitogenomes from multiple Yemeni regions with a focus on haplogroups M, N, and L3(xM,N) as these groups have the oldest evolutionary history outside of Africa. We performed Bayesian evolutionary analyses to generate time-measured phylogenies calibrated by Neanderthal and Denisovan mitogenomes in order to determine the age of Yemeni-specific clades. As defined by Yemeni monophyly, Yemeni in situ evolution is limited to the Holocene or latest Pleistocene (ages of clades in subhaplogroups L3b1a1a, L3h2, L3x1, M1a1f, M1a5, N1a1a3, and N1a3 range from 2 to 14 kya) and is often situated within broader Horn of Africa/southern Arabia in situ evolution (L3h2, L3x1, M1a1f, M1a5, and N1a1a3 ages range from 7 to 29 kya). Five subhaplogroups show no monophyly and are candidates for Holocene migration into Yemen (L0a2a2a, L3d1a1a, L3i2, M1a1b, and N1b1a). Yemeni mitogenomes are largely the product of Holocene migration, and subsequent in situ evolution, from Africa and western Eurasia. However, we hypothesize that recent population movements may obscure the genetic signature of more ancient migrations. Additional research, e.g., analyses of Yemeni nuclear genetic data, is needed to better reconstruct the complex population and migration histories associated with Out of Africa. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Single-Case Time Series with Bayesian Analysis: A Practitioner's Guide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, W. Paul

2003-01-01

This article illustrates a simplified time series analysis for use by the counseling researcher practitioner in single-case baseline plus intervention studies with a Bayesian probability analysis to integrate findings from replications. The C statistic is recommended as a primary analysis tool with particular relevance in the context of actual…

Daniel Goodman’s empirical approach to Bayesian statistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerrodette, Tim; Ward, Eric; Taylor, Rebecca L.; Schwarz, Lisa K.; Eguchi, Tomoharu; Wade, Paul; Himes Boor, Gina

2016-01-01

Bayesian statistics, in contrast to classical statistics, uses probability to represent uncertainty about the state of knowledge. Bayesian statistics has often been associated with the idea that knowledge is subjective and that a probability distribution represents a personal degree of belief. Dr. Daniel Goodman considered this viewpoint problematic for issues of public policy. He sought to ground his Bayesian approach in data, and advocated the construction of a prior as an empirical histogram of “similar” cases. In this way, the posterior distribution that results from a Bayesian analysis combined comparable previous data with case-specific current data, using Bayes’ formula. Goodman championed such a data-based approach, but he acknowledged that it was difficult in practice. If based on a true representation of our knowledge and uncertainty, Goodman argued that risk assessment and decision-making could be an exact science, despite the uncertainties. In his view, Bayesian statistics is a critical component of this science because a Bayesian analysis produces the probabilities of future outcomes. Indeed, Goodman maintained that the Bayesian machinery, following the rules of conditional probability, offered the best legitimate inference from available data. We give an example of an informative prior in a recent study of Steller sea lion spatial use patterns in Alaska.

Robust Bayesian Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayashi, Kentaro; Yuan, Ke-Hai

2003-01-01

Bayesian factor analysis (BFA) assumes the normal distribution of the current sample conditional on the parameters. Practical data in social and behavioral sciences typically have significant skewness and kurtosis. If the normality assumption is not attainable, the posterior analysis will be inaccurate, although the BFA depends less on the current…

Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Coefficient Alpha

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brannick, Michael T.; Zhang, Nanhua

2013-01-01

The current paper describes and illustrates a Bayesian approach to the meta-analysis of coefficient alpha. Alpha is the most commonly used estimate of the reliability or consistency (freedom from measurement error) for educational and psychological measures. The conventional approach to meta-analysis uses inverse variance weights to combine…

The Genealogical Population Dynamics of HIV-1 in a Large Transmission Chain: Bridging within and among Host Evolutionary Rates

PubMed Central

Vrancken, Bram; Rambaut, Andrew; Suchard, Marc A.; Drummond, Alexei; Baele, Guy; Derdelinckx, Inge; Van Wijngaerden, Eric; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Van Laethem, Kristel; Lemey, Philippe

2014-01-01

Transmission lies at the interface of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) evolution within and among hosts and separates distinct selective pressures that impose differences in both the mode of diversification and the tempo of evolution. In the absence of comprehensive direct comparative analyses of the evolutionary processes at different biological scales, our understanding of how fast within-host HIV-1 evolutionary rates translate to lower rates at the between host level remains incomplete. Here, we address this by analyzing pol and env data from a large HIV-1 subtype C transmission chain for which both the timing and the direction is known for most transmission events. To this purpose, we develop a new transmission model in a Bayesian genealogical inference framework and demonstrate how to constrain the viral evolutionary history to be compatible with the transmission history while simultaneously inferring the within-host evolutionary and population dynamics. We show that accommodating a transmission bottleneck affords the best fit our data, but the sparse within-host HIV-1 sampling prevents accurate quantification of the concomitant loss in genetic diversity. We draw inference under the transmission model to estimate HIV-1 evolutionary rates among epidemiologically-related patients and demonstrate that they lie in between fast intra-host rates and lower rates among epidemiologically unrelated individuals infected with HIV subtype C. Using a new molecular clock approach, we quantify and find support for a lower evolutionary rate along branches that accommodate a transmission event or branches that represent the entire backbone of transmitted lineages in our transmission history. Finally, we recover the rate differences at the different biological scales for both synonymous and non-synonymous substitution rates, which is only compatible with the ‘store and retrieve’ hypothesis positing that viruses stored early in latently infected cells preferentially transmit or establish new infections upon reactivation. PMID:24699231

Analyzing small data sets using Bayesian estimation: the case of posttraumatic stress symptoms following mechanical ventilation in burn survivors

PubMed Central

van de Schoot, Rens; Broere, Joris J.; Perryck, Koen H.; Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, Mariëlle; van Loey, Nancy E.

2015-01-01

Background The analysis of small data sets in longitudinal studies can lead to power issues and often suffers from biased parameter values. These issues can be solved by using Bayesian estimation in conjunction with informative prior distributions. By means of a simulation study and an empirical example concerning posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) following mechanical ventilation in burn survivors, we demonstrate the advantages and potential pitfalls of using Bayesian estimation. Methods First, we show how to specify prior distributions and by means of a sensitivity analysis we demonstrate how to check the exact influence of the prior (mis-) specification. Thereafter, we show by means of a simulation the situations in which the Bayesian approach outperforms the default, maximum likelihood and approach. Finally, we re-analyze empirical data on burn survivors which provided preliminary evidence of an aversive influence of a period of mechanical ventilation on the course of PTSS following burns. Results Not suprisingly, maximum likelihood estimation showed insufficient coverage as well as power with very small samples. Only when Bayesian analysis, in conjunction with informative priors, was used power increased to acceptable levels. As expected, we showed that the smaller the sample size the more the results rely on the prior specification. Conclusion We show that two issues often encountered during analysis of small samples, power and biased parameters, can be solved by including prior information into Bayesian analysis. We argue that the use of informative priors should always be reported together with a sensitivity analysis. PMID:25765534

Analyzing small data sets using Bayesian estimation: the case of posttraumatic stress symptoms following mechanical ventilation in burn survivors.

PubMed

van de Schoot, Rens; Broere, Joris J; Perryck, Koen H; Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, Mariëlle; van Loey, Nancy E

2015-01-01

Background : The analysis of small data sets in longitudinal studies can lead to power issues and often suffers from biased parameter values. These issues can be solved by using Bayesian estimation in conjunction with informative prior distributions. By means of a simulation study and an empirical example concerning posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) following mechanical ventilation in burn survivors, we demonstrate the advantages and potential pitfalls of using Bayesian estimation. Methods : First, we show how to specify prior distributions and by means of a sensitivity analysis we demonstrate how to check the exact influence of the prior (mis-) specification. Thereafter, we show by means of a simulation the situations in which the Bayesian approach outperforms the default, maximum likelihood and approach. Finally, we re-analyze empirical data on burn survivors which provided preliminary evidence of an aversive influence of a period of mechanical ventilation on the course of PTSS following burns. Results : Not suprisingly, maximum likelihood estimation showed insufficient coverage as well as power with very small samples. Only when Bayesian analysis, in conjunction with informative priors, was used power increased to acceptable levels. As expected, we showed that the smaller the sample size the more the results rely on the prior specification. Conclusion : We show that two issues often encountered during analysis of small samples, power and biased parameters, can be solved by including prior information into Bayesian analysis. We argue that the use of informative priors should always be reported together with a sensitivity analysis.

Bayesian dose-response analysis for epidemiological studies with complex uncertainty in dose estimation.

PubMed

Kwon, Deukwoo; Hoffman, F Owen; Moroz, Brian E; Simon, Steven L

2016-02-10

Most conventional risk analysis methods rely on a single best estimate of exposure per person, which does not allow for adjustment for exposure-related uncertainty. Here, we propose a Bayesian model averaging method to properly quantify the relationship between radiation dose and disease outcomes by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainty in estimated dose. Our Bayesian risk analysis method utilizes multiple realizations of sets (vectors) of doses generated by a two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation method that properly separates shared and unshared errors in dose estimation. The exposure model used in this work is taken from a study of the risk of thyroid nodules among a cohort of 2376 subjects who were exposed to fallout from nuclear testing in Kazakhstan. We assessed the performance of our method through an extensive series of simulations and comparisons against conventional regression risk analysis methods. When the estimated doses contain relatively small amounts of uncertainty, the Bayesian method using multiple a priori plausible draws of dose vectors gave similar results to the conventional regression-based methods of dose-response analysis. However, when large and complex mixtures of shared and unshared uncertainties are present, the Bayesian method using multiple dose vectors had significantly lower relative bias than conventional regression-based risk analysis methods and better coverage, that is, a markedly increased capability to include the true risk coefficient within the 95% credible interval of the Bayesian-based risk estimate. An evaluation of the dose-response using our method is presented for an epidemiological study of thyroid disease following radiation exposure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Importance of Proving the Null

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gallistel, C. R.

2009-01-01

Null hypotheses are simple, precise, and theoretically important. Conventional statistical analysis cannot support them; Bayesian analysis can. The challenge in a Bayesian analysis is to formulate a suitably vague alternative, because the vaguer the alternative is (the more it spreads out the unit mass of prior probability), the more the null is…

Bayesian Analysis of Nonlinear Structural Equation Models with Nonignorable Missing Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Sik-Yum

2006-01-01

A Bayesian approach is developed for analyzing nonlinear structural equation models with nonignorable missing data. The nonignorable missingness mechanism is specified by a logistic regression model. A hybrid algorithm that combines the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to produce the joint Bayesian estimates of…

Bayesian Data-Model Fit Assessment for Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levy, Roy

2011-01-01

Bayesian approaches to modeling are receiving an increasing amount of attention in the areas of model construction and estimation in factor analysis, structural equation modeling (SEM), and related latent variable models. However, model diagnostics and model criticism remain relatively understudied aspects of Bayesian SEM. This article describes…

Bayesian Posterior Odds Ratios: Statistical Tools for Collaborative Evaluations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hicks, Tyler; Rodríguez-Campos, Liliana; Choi, Jeong Hoon

2018-01-01

To begin statistical analysis, Bayesians quantify their confidence in modeling hypotheses with priors. A prior describes the probability of a certain modeling hypothesis apart from the data. Bayesians should be able to defend their choice of prior to a skeptical audience. Collaboration between evaluators and stakeholders could make their choices…

Development and comparison in uncertainty assessment based Bayesian modularization method in hydrological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lu; Xu, Chong-Yu; Engeland, Kolbjørn

2013-04-01

SummaryWith respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, various regression and probabilistic approaches are used in hydrological modeling. A family of Bayesian methods, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayes' theorem, is widely used for uncertainty assessment. However, none of these approaches can well treat the impact of high flows in hydrological modeling. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization uncertainty assessment approach in which the highest streamflow observations are treated as suspect information that should not influence the inference of the main bulk of the model parameters. This study includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by our new Bayesian modularization method and standard Bayesian methods using the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions were used in combination with standard Bayesian method: the AR(1) plus Normal model independent of time (Model 1), the AR(1) plus Normal model dependent on time (Model 2) and the AR(1) plus Multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that the Bayesian modularization method provides the most accurate streamflow estimates measured by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and provide the best in uncertainty estimates for low, medium and entire flows compared to standard Bayesian methods. The study thus provides a new approach for reducing the impact of high flows on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian method.

Bayesian correction for covariate measurement error: A frequentist evaluation and comparison with regression calibration.

PubMed

Bartlett, Jonathan W; Keogh, Ruth H

2018-06-01

Bayesian approaches for handling covariate measurement error are well established and yet arguably are still relatively little used by researchers. For some this is likely due to unfamiliarity or disagreement with the Bayesian inferential paradigm. For others a contributory factor is the inability of standard statistical packages to perform such Bayesian analyses. In this paper, we first give an overview of the Bayesian approach to handling covariate measurement error, and contrast it with regression calibration, arguably the most commonly adopted approach. We then argue why the Bayesian approach has a number of statistical advantages compared to regression calibration and demonstrate that implementing the Bayesian approach is usually quite feasible for the analyst. Next, we describe the closely related maximum likelihood and multiple imputation approaches and explain why we believe the Bayesian approach to generally be preferable. We then empirically compare the frequentist properties of regression calibration and the Bayesian approach through simulation studies. The flexibility of the Bayesian approach to handle both measurement error and missing data is then illustrated through an analysis of data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

A parametric interpretation of Bayesian Nonparametric Inference from Gene Genealogies: Linking ecological, population genetics and evolutionary processes.

PubMed

Ponciano, José Miguel

2017-11-22

Using a nonparametric Bayesian approach Palacios and Minin (2013) dramatically improved the accuracy, precision of Bayesian inference of population size trajectories from gene genealogies. These authors proposed an extension of a Gaussian Process (GP) nonparametric inferential method for the intensity function of non-homogeneous Poisson processes. They found that not only the statistical properties of the estimators were improved with their method, but also, that key aspects of the demographic histories were recovered. The authors' work represents the first Bayesian nonparametric solution to this inferential problem because they specify a convenient prior belief without a particular functional form on the population trajectory. Their approach works so well and provides such a profound understanding of the biological process, that the question arises as to how truly "biology-free" their approach really is. Using well-known concepts of stochastic population dynamics, here I demonstrate that in fact, Palacios and Minin's GP model can be cast as a parametric population growth model with density dependence and environmental stochasticity. Making this link between population genetics and stochastic population dynamics modeling provides novel insights into eliciting biologically meaningful priors for the trajectory of the effective population size. The results presented here also bring novel understanding of GP as models for the evolution of a trait. Thus, the ecological principles foundation of Palacios and Minin (2013)'s prior adds to the conceptual and scientific value of these authors' inferential approach. I conclude this note by listing a series of insights brought about by this connection with Ecology. Copyright © 2017 The Author. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Specialist and generalist symbionts show counterintuitive levels of genetic diversity and discordant demographic histories along the Florida Reef Tract

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titus, Benjamin M.; Daly, Marymegan

2017-03-01

Specialist and generalist life histories are expected to result in contrasting levels of genetic diversity at the population level, and symbioses are expected to lead to patterns that reflect a shared biogeographic history and co-diversification. We test these assumptions using mtDNA sequencing and a comparative phylogeographic approach for six co-occurring crustacean species that are symbiotic with sea anemones on western Atlantic coral reefs, yet vary in their host specificities: four are host specialists and two are host generalists. We first conducted species discovery analyses to delimit cryptic lineages, followed by classic population genetic diversity analyses for each delimited taxon, and then reconstructed the demographic history for each taxon using traditional summary statistics, Bayesian skyline plots, and approximate Bayesian computation to test for signatures of recent and concerted population expansion. The genetic diversity values recovered here contravene the expectations of the specialist-generalist variation hypothesis and classic population genetics theory; all specialist lineages had greater genetic diversity than generalists. Demography suggests recent population expansions in all taxa, although Bayesian skyline plots and approximate Bayesian computation suggest the timing and magnitude of these events were idiosyncratic. These results do not meet the a priori expectation of concordance among symbiotic taxa and suggest that intrinsic aspects of species biology may contribute more to phylogeographic history than extrinsic forces that shape whole communities. The recovery of two cryptic specialist lineages adds an additional layer of biodiversity to this symbiosis and contributes to an emerging pattern of cryptic speciation in the specialist taxa. Our results underscore the differences in the evolutionary processes acting on marine systems from the terrestrial processes that often drive theory. Finally, we continue to highlight the Florida Reef Tract as an important biodiversity hotspot.

Enhancing the Modeling of PFOA Pharmacokinetics with Bayesian Analysis

EPA Science Inventory

The detail sufficient to describe the pharmacokinetics (PK) for perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and the methods necessary to combine information from multiple data sets are both subjects of ongoing investigation. Bayesian analysis provides tools to accommodate these goals. We exa...

Molecular Phylogeny of Hantaviruses Harbored by Insectivorous Bats in Côte d’Ivoire and Vietnam

PubMed Central

Gu, Se Hun; Lim, Burton K.; Kadjo, Blaise; Arai, Satoru; Kim, Jeong-Ah; Nicolas, Violaine; Lalis, Aude; Denys, Christiane; Cook, Joseph A.; Dominguez, Samuel R.; Holmes, Kathryn V.; Urushadze, Lela; Sidamonidze, Ketevan; Putkaradze, Davit; Kuzmin, Ivan V.; Kosoy, Michael Y.; Song, Jin-Won; Yanagihara, Richard

2014-01-01

The recent discovery of genetically distinct hantaviruses in multiple species of shrews and moles prompted a further exploration of their host diversification by analyzing frozen, ethanol-fixed and RNAlater®-preserved archival tissues and fecal samples from 533 bats (representing seven families, 28 genera and 53 species in the order Chiroptera), captured in Asia, Africa and the Americas in 1981–2012, using RT-PCR. Hantavirus RNA was detected in Pomona roundleaf bats (Hipposideros pomona) (family Hipposideridae), captured in Vietnam in 1997 and 1999, and in banana pipistrelles (Neoromicia nanus) (family Vespertilionidae), captured in Côte d’Ivoire in 2011. Phylogenetic analysis, based on the full-length S- and partial M- and L-segment sequences using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, demonstrated that the newfound hantaviruses formed highly divergent lineages, comprising other recently recognized bat-borne hantaviruses in Sierra Leone and China. The detection of bat-associated hantaviruses opens a new era in hantavirology and provides insights into their evolutionary origins. PMID:24784569

Speciation within Columnea section Angustiflora (Gesneriaceae): islands, pollinators and climate.

PubMed

Schulte, Lacie J; Clark, John L; Novak, Stephen J; Jeffries, Shandra K; Smith, James F

2015-03-01

Despite many advances in evolutionary biology, understanding the proximate mechanisms that lead to speciation for many taxonomic groups remains elusive. Phylogenetic analyses provide a means to generate well-supported estimates of species relationships. Understanding how genetic isolation (restricted gene flow) occurred in the past requires not only a well-supported molecular phylogenetic analysis, but also an understanding of when character states that define species may have changed. In this study, phylogenetic trees resolve species level relationships for fourteen of the fifteen species within Columnea section Angustiflorae (Gesneriaceae). The distributions of sister species pairs are compared and ancestral character states are reconstructed using Bayesian stochastic mapping. Climate variables were also assessed and shifts in ancestral climate conditions were mapped using SEEVA. The relationships between morphological character states and climate variables were assessed with correlation analyses. These results indicate that species in section Angustiflorae have likely diverged as a result of allopatric, parapatric, and sympatric speciation, with both biotic and abiotic forces driving morphological and phenological divergence. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Minimal effects of latitude on present-day speciation rates in New World birds

PubMed Central

Rabosky, Daniel L.; Title, Pascal O.; Huang, Huateng

2015-01-01

The tropics contain far greater numbers of species than temperate regions, suggesting that rates of species formation might differ systematically between tropical and non-tropical areas. We tested this hypothesis by reconstructing the history of speciation in New World (NW) land birds using BAMM, a Bayesian framework for modelling complex evolutionary dynamics on phylogenetic trees. We estimated marginal distributions of present-day speciation rates for each of 2571 species of birds. The present-day rate of speciation varies approximately 30-fold across NW birds, but there is no difference in the rate distributions for tropical and temperate taxa. Using macroevolutionary cohort analysis, we demonstrate that clades with high tropical membership do not produce species more rapidly than temperate clades. For nearly any value of present-day speciation rate, there are far more species in the tropics than the temperate zone. Any effects of latitude on speciation rate are marginal in comparison to the dramatic variation in rates among clades. PMID:26019156

Demographic history and gene flow during silkworm domestication

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Gene flow plays an important role in domestication history of domesticated species. However, little is known about the demographic history of domesticated silkworm involving gene flow with its wild relative. Results In this study, four model-based evolutionary scenarios to describe the demographic history of B. mori were hypothesized. Using Approximate Bayesian Computation method and DNA sequence data from 29 nuclear loci, we found that the gene flow at bottleneck model is the most likely scenario for silkworm domestication. The starting time of silkworm domestication was estimated to be approximate 7,500 years ago; the time of domestication termination was 3,984 years ago. Using coalescent simulation analysis, we also found that bi-directional gene flow occurred during silkworm domestication. Conclusions Estimates of silkworm domestication time are nearly consistent with the archeological evidence and our previous results. Importantly, we found that the bi-directional gene flow might occur during silkworm domestication. Our findings add a dimension to highlight the important role of gene flow in domestication of crops and animals. PMID:25123546

Origin, Spread and Demography of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex

PubMed Central

Wirth, Thierry; Hildebrand, Falk; Allix-Béguec, Caroline; Wölbeling, Florian; Kubica, Tanja; Kremer, Kristin; van Soolingen, Dick; Rüsch-Gerdes, Sabine; Locht, Camille; Brisse, Sylvain; Meyer, Axel

2008-01-01

The evolutionary timing and spread of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC), one of the most successful groups of bacterial pathogens, remains largely unknown. Here, using mycobacterial tandem repeat sequences as genetic markers, we show that the MTBC consists of two independent clades, one composed exclusively of M. tuberculosis lineages from humans and the other composed of both animal and human isolates. The latter also likely derived from a human pathogenic lineage, supporting the hypothesis of an original human host. Using Bayesian statistics and experimental data on the variability of the mycobacterial markers in infected patients, we estimated the age of the MTBC at 40,000 years, coinciding with the expansion of “modern” human populations out of Africa. Furthermore, coalescence analysis revealed a strong and recent demographic expansion in almost all M. tuberculosis lineages, which coincides with the human population explosion over the last two centuries. These findings thus unveil the dynamic dimension of the association between human host and pathogen populations. PMID:18802459

Rather than by direct acquisition via lateral gene transfer, GHF5 cellulases were passed on from early Pratylenchidae to root-knot and cyst nematodes.

PubMed

Rybarczyk-Mydłowska, Katarzyna; Maboreke, Hazel Ruvimbo; van Megen, Hanny; van den Elsen, Sven; Mooyman, Paul; Smant, Geert; Bakker, Jaap; Helder, Johannes

2012-11-21

Plant parasitic nematodes are unusual Metazoans as they are equipped with genes that allow for symbiont-independent degradation of plant cell walls. Among the cell wall-degrading enzymes, glycoside hydrolase family 5 (GHF5) cellulases are relatively well characterized, especially for high impact parasites such as root-knot and cyst nematodes. Interestingly, ancestors of extant nematodes most likely acquired these GHF5 cellulases from a prokaryote donor by one or multiple lateral gene transfer events. To obtain insight into the origin of GHF5 cellulases among evolutionary advanced members of the order Tylenchida, cellulase biodiversity data from less distal family members were collected and analyzed. Single nematodes were used to obtain (partial) genomic sequences of cellulases from representatives of the genera Meloidogyne, Pratylenchus, Hirschmanniella and Globodera. Combined Bayesian analysis of ≈ 100 cellulase sequences revealed three types of catalytic domains (A, B, and C). Represented by 84 sequences, type B is numerically dominant, and the overall topology of the catalytic domain type shows remarkable resemblance with trees based on neutral (= pathogenicity-unrelated) small subunit ribosomal DNA sequences. Bayesian analysis further suggested a sister relationship between the lesion nematode Pratylenchus thornei and all type B cellulases from root-knot nematodes. Yet, the relationship between the three catalytic domain types remained unclear. Superposition of intron data onto the cellulase tree suggests that types B and C are related, and together distinct from type A that is characterized by two unique introns. All Tylenchida members investigated here harbored one or multiple GHF5 cellulases. Three types of catalytic domains are distinguished, and the presence of at least two types is relatively common among plant parasitic Tylenchida. Analysis of coding sequences of cellulases suggests that root-knot and cyst nematodes did not acquire this gene directly by lateral genes transfer. More likely, these genes were passed on by ancestors of a family nowadays known as the Pratylenchidae.

The tempo and mode of New World monkey evolution and biogeography in the context of phylogenomic analysis.

PubMed

Jameson Kiesling, Natalie M; Yi, Soojin V; Xu, Ke; Gianluca Sperone, F; Wildman, Derek E

2015-01-01

The development and evolution of organisms is heavily influenced by their environment. Thus, understanding the historical biogeography of taxa can provide insights into their evolutionary history, adaptations and trade-offs realized throughout time. In the present study we have taken a phylogenomic approach to infer New World monkey phylogeny, upon which we have reconstructed the biogeographic history of extant platyrrhines. In order to generate sufficient phylogenetic signal within the New World monkey clade, we carried out a large-scale phylogenetic analysis of approximately 40 kb of non-genic genomic DNA sequence in a 36 species subset of extant New World monkeys. Maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference analysis all converged on a single optimal tree topology. Divergence dating and biogeographic analysis reconstruct the timing and geographic location of divergence events. The ancestral area reconstruction describes the geographic locations of the last common ancestor of extant platyrrhines and provides insight into key biogeographic events occurring during platyrrhine diversification. Through these analyses we conclude that the diversification of the platyrrhines took place concurrently with the establishment and diversification of the Amazon rainforest. This suggests that an expanding rainforest environment rather than geographic isolation drove platyrrhine diversification. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian statistics: estimating plant demographic parameters

Treesearch

James S. Clark; Michael Lavine

2001-01-01

There are times when external information should be brought tobear on an ecological analysis. experiments are never conducted in a knowledge-free context. The inference we draw from an observation may depend on everything else we know about the process. Bayesian analysis is a method that brings outside evidence into the analysis of experimental and observational data...

Spatial Dependence and Heterogeneity in Bayesian Factor Analysis: A Cross-National Investigation of Schwartz Values

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stakhovych, Stanislav; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.; Wedel, Michel

2012-01-01

In this article, we present a Bayesian spatial factor analysis model. We extend previous work on confirmatory factor analysis by including geographically distributed latent variables and accounting for heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation. The simulation study shows excellent recovery of the model parameters and demonstrates the consequences…

Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling: A More Flexible Representation of Substantive Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muthen, Bengt; Asparouhov, Tihomir

2012-01-01

This article proposes a new approach to factor analysis and structural equation modeling using Bayesian analysis. The new approach replaces parameter specifications of exact zeros with approximate zeros based on informative, small-variance priors. It is argued that this produces an analysis that better reflects substantive theories. The proposed…

BCM: toolkit for Bayesian analysis of Computational Models using samplers.

PubMed

Thijssen, Bram; Dijkstra, Tjeerd M H; Heskes, Tom; Wessels, Lodewyk F A

2016-10-21

Computational models in biology are characterized by a large degree of uncertainty. This uncertainty can be analyzed with Bayesian statistics, however, the sampling algorithms that are frequently used for calculating Bayesian statistical estimates are computationally demanding, and each algorithm has unique advantages and disadvantages. It is typically unclear, before starting an analysis, which algorithm will perform well on a given computational model. We present BCM, a toolkit for the Bayesian analysis of Computational Models using samplers. It provides efficient, multithreaded implementations of eleven algorithms for sampling from posterior probability distributions and for calculating marginal likelihoods. BCM includes tools to simplify the process of model specification and scripts for visualizing the results. The flexible architecture allows it to be used on diverse types of biological computational models. In an example inference task using a model of the cell cycle based on ordinary differential equations, BCM is significantly more efficient than existing software packages, allowing more challenging inference problems to be solved. BCM represents an efficient one-stop-shop for computational modelers wishing to use sampler-based Bayesian statistics.

Bayesian Analysis of Longitudinal Data Using Growth Curve Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Zhiyong; Hamagami, Fumiaki; Wang, Lijuan Lijuan; Nesselroade, John R.; Grimm, Kevin J.

2007-01-01

Bayesian methods for analyzing longitudinal data in social and behavioral research are recommended for their ability to incorporate prior information in estimating simple and complex models. We first summarize the basics of Bayesian methods before presenting an empirical example in which we fit a latent basis growth curve model to achievement data…

Introduction to Bayesian statistical approaches to compositional analyses of transgenic crops 1. Model validation and setting the stage.

PubMed

Harrison, Jay M; Breeze, Matthew L; Harrigan, George G

2011-08-01

Statistical comparisons of compositional data generated on genetically modified (GM) crops and their near-isogenic conventional (non-GM) counterparts typically rely on classical significance testing. This manuscript presents an introduction to Bayesian methods for compositional analysis along with recommendations for model validation. The approach is illustrated using protein and fat data from two herbicide tolerant GM soybeans (MON87708 and MON87708×MON89788) and a conventional comparator grown in the US in 2008 and 2009. Guidelines recommended by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in conducting Bayesian analyses of clinical studies on medical devices were followed. This study is the first Bayesian approach to GM and non-GM compositional comparisons. The evaluation presented here supports a conclusion that a Bayesian approach to analyzing compositional data can provide meaningful and interpretable results. We further describe the importance of method validation and approaches to model checking if Bayesian approaches to compositional data analysis are to be considered viable by scientists involved in GM research and regulation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian analysis of rare events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straub, Daniel; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

2016-06-01

In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

Phylogenetic analysis of nitrite, nitric oxide, and nitrous oxide respiratory enzymes reveal a complex evolutionary history for denitrification.

PubMed

Jones, Christopher M; Stres, Blaz; Rosenquist, Magnus; Hallin, Sara

2008-09-01

Denitrification is a facultative respiratory pathway in which nitrite (NO2(-)), nitric oxide (NO), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are successively reduced to nitrogen gas (N(2)), effectively closing the nitrogen cycle. The ability to denitrify is widely dispersed among prokaryotes, and this polyphyletic distribution has raised the possibility of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) having a substantial role in the evolution of denitrification. Comparisons of 16S rRNA and denitrification gene phylogenies in recent studies support this possibility; however, these results remain speculative as they are based on visual comparisons of phylogenies from partial sequences. We reanalyzed publicly available nirS, nirK, norB, and nosZ partial sequences using Bayesian and maximum likelihood phylogenetic inference. Concomitant analysis of denitrification genes with 16S rRNA sequences from the same organisms showed substantial differences between the trees, which were supported by examining the posterior probability of monophyletic constraints at different taxonomic levels. Although these differences suggest HGT of denitrification genes, the presence of structural variants for nirK, norB, and nosZ makes it difficult to determine HGT from other evolutionary events. Additional analysis using phylogenetic networks and likelihood ratio tests of phylogenies based on full-length sequences retrieved from genomes also revealed significant differences in tree topologies among denitrification and 16S rRNA gene phylogenies, with the exception of the nosZ gene phylogeny within the data set of the nirK-harboring genomes. However, inspection of codon usage and G + C content plots from complete genomes gave no evidence for recent HGT. Instead, the close proximity of denitrification gene copies in the genomes of several denitrifying bacteria suggests duplication. Although HGT cannot be ruled out as a factor in the evolution of denitrification genes, our analysis suggests that other phenomena, such gene duplication/divergence and lineage sorting, may have differently influenced the evolution of each denitrification gene.

Phylogenetics of tribe Orchideae (Orchidaceae: Orchidoideae) based on combined DNA matrices: inferences regarding timing of diversification and evolution of pollination syndromes

PubMed Central

Inda, Luis A.; Pimentel, Manuel; Chase, Mark W.

2012-01-01

Background and aims Tribe Orchideae (Orchidaceae: Orchidoideae) comprises around 62 mostly terrestrial genera, which are well represented in the Northern Temperate Zone and less frequently in tropical areas of both the Old and New Worlds. Phylogenetic relationships within this tribe have been studied previously using only nuclear ribosomal DNA (nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer, nrITS). However, different parts of the phylogenetic tree in these analyses were weakly supported, and integrating information from different plant genomes is clearly necessary in orchids, where reticulate evolution events are putatively common. The aims of this study were to: (1) obtain a well-supported and dated phylogenetic hypothesis for tribe Orchideae, (ii) assess appropriateness of recent nomenclatural changes in this tribe in the last decade, (3) detect possible examples of reticulate evolution and (4) analyse in a temporal context evolutionary trends for subtribe Orchidinae with special emphasis on pollination systems. Methods The analyses included 118 samples, belonging to 103 species and 25 genera, for three DNA regions (nrITS, mitochondrial cox1 intron and plastid rpl16 intron). Bayesian and maximum-parsimony methods were used to construct a well-supported and dated tree. Evolutionary trends in the subtribe were analysed using Bayesian and maximum-likelihood methods of character evolution. Key Results The dated phylogenetic tree strongly supported the recently recircumscribed generic concepts of Bateman and collaborators. Moreover, it was found that Orchidinae have diversified in the Mediterranean basin during the last 15 million years, and one potential example of reticulate evolution in the subtribe was identified. In Orchidinae, pollination systems have shifted on numerous occasions during the last 23 million years. Conclusions The results indicate that ancestral Orchidinae were hymenopteran-pollinated, food-deceptive plants and that these traits have been dominant throughout the evolutionary history of the subtribe in the Mediterranean. Evidence was also obtained that the onset of sexual deception might be linked to an increase in labellum size, and the possibility is discussed that diversification in Orchidinae developed in parallel with diversification of bees and wasps from the Miocene onwards. PMID:22539542

A guide to Bayesian model selection for ecologists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooten, Mevin B.; Hobbs, N.T.

2015-01-01

The steady upward trend in the use of model selection and Bayesian methods in ecological research has made it clear that both approaches to inference are important for modern analysis of models and data. However, in teaching Bayesian methods and in working with our research colleagues, we have noticed a general dissatisfaction with the available literature on Bayesian model selection and multimodel inference. Students and researchers new to Bayesian methods quickly find that the published advice on model selection is often preferential in its treatment of options for analysis, frequently advocating one particular method above others. The recent appearance of many articles and textbooks on Bayesian modeling has provided welcome background on relevant approaches to model selection in the Bayesian framework, but most of these are either very narrowly focused in scope or inaccessible to ecologists. Moreover, the methodological details of Bayesian model selection approaches are spread thinly throughout the literature, appearing in journals from many different fields. Our aim with this guide is to condense the large body of literature on Bayesian approaches to model selection and multimodel inference and present it specifically for quantitative ecologists as neutrally as possible. We also bring to light a few important and fundamental concepts relating directly to model selection that seem to have gone unnoticed in the ecological literature. Throughout, we provide only a minimal discussion of philosophy, preferring instead to examine the breadth of approaches as well as their practical advantages and disadvantages. This guide serves as a reference for ecologists using Bayesian methods, so that they can better understand their options and can make an informed choice that is best aligned with their goals for inference.

BATSE gamma-ray burst line search. 2: Bayesian consistency methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Band, D. L.; Ford, L. A.; Matteson, J. L.; Briggs, M.; Paciesas, W.; Pendleton, G.; Preece, R.; Palmer, D.; Teegarden, B.; Schaefer, B.

1994-01-01

We describe a Bayesian methodology to evaluate the consistency between the reported Ginga and Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) detections of absorption features in gamma-ray burst spectra. Currently no features have been detected by BATSE, but this methodology will still be applicable if and when such features are discovered. The Bayesian methodology permits the comparison of hypotheses regarding the two detectors' observations and makes explicit the subjective aspects of our analysis (e.g., the quantification of our confidence in detector performance). We also present non-Bayesian consistency statistics. Based on preliminary calculations of line detectability, we find that both the Bayesian and non-Bayesian techniques show that the BATSE and Ginga observations are consistent given our understanding of these detectors.

Application of Bayesian Approach in Cancer Clinical Trial

PubMed Central

Bhattacharjee, Atanu

2014-01-01

The application of Bayesian approach in clinical trials becomes more useful over classical method. It is beneficial from design to analysis phase. The straight forward statement is possible to obtain through Bayesian about the drug treatment effect. Complex computational problems are simple to handle with Bayesian techniques. The technique is only feasible to performing presence of prior information of the data. The inference is possible to establish through posterior estimates. However, some limitations are present in this method. The objective of this work was to explore the several merits and demerits of Bayesian approach in cancer research. The review of the technique will be helpful for the clinical researcher involved in the oncology to explore the limitation and power of Bayesian techniques. PMID:29147387

Revisiting the phylogeography, demography and taxonomy of the frog genus Ptychadena in the Ethiopian highlands with the use of genome-wide SNP data.

PubMed

Reyes-Velasco, Jacobo; Manthey, Joseph D; Bourgeois, Yann; Freilich, Xenia; Boissinot, Stéphane

2018-01-01

Understanding the diversification of biological lineages is central to evolutionary studies. To properly study the process of speciation, it is necessary to link micro-evolutionary studies with macro-evolutionary mechanisms. Micro-evolutionary studies require proper sampling across a taxon's range to adequately infer genetic diversity. Here we use the grass frogs of the genus Ptychadena from the Ethiopian highlands as a model to study the process of lineage diversification in this unique biodiversity hotspot. We used thousands of genome-wide SNPs obtained from double digest restriction site associated DNA sequencing (ddRAD-seq) in populations of the Ptychadena neumanni species complex from the Ethiopian highlands in order to infer their phylogenetic relationships and genetic structure, as well as to study their demographic history. Our genome-wide phylogenetic study supports the existence of approximately 13 lineages clustered into 3 species groups. Our phylogenetic and phylogeographic reconstructions suggest that those endemic lineages diversified in allopatry, and subsequently specialized to different habitats and elevations. Demographic analyses point to a continuous decrease in the population size across the majority of lineages and populations during the Pleistocene, which is consistent with a continuous period of aridification that East Africa experienced since the Pliocene. We discuss the taxonomic implications of our analyses and, in particular, we warn against the recent practice to solely use Bayesian species delimitation methods when proposing taxonomic changes.

Revisiting the phylogeography, demography and taxonomy of the frog genus Ptychadena in the Ethiopian highlands with the use of genome-wide SNP data

PubMed Central

Manthey, Joseph D.; Bourgeois, Yann; Freilich, Xenia; Boissinot, Stéphane

2018-01-01

Understanding the diversification of biological lineages is central to evolutionary studies. To properly study the process of speciation, it is necessary to link micro-evolutionary studies with macro-evolutionary mechanisms. Micro-evolutionary studies require proper sampling across a taxon’s range to adequately infer genetic diversity. Here we use the grass frogs of the genus Ptychadena from the Ethiopian highlands as a model to study the process of lineage diversification in this unique biodiversity hotspot. We used thousands of genome-wide SNPs obtained from double digest restriction site associated DNA sequencing (ddRAD-seq) in populations of the Ptychadena neumanni species complex from the Ethiopian highlands in order to infer their phylogenetic relationships and genetic structure, as well as to study their demographic history. Our genome-wide phylogenetic study supports the existence of approximately 13 lineages clustered into 3 species groups. Our phylogenetic and phylogeographic reconstructions suggest that those endemic lineages diversified in allopatry, and subsequently specialized to different habitats and elevations. Demographic analyses point to a continuous decrease in the population size across the majority of lineages and populations during the Pleistocene, which is consistent with a continuous period of aridification that East Africa experienced since the Pliocene. We discuss the taxonomic implications of our analyses and, in particular, we warn against the recent practice to solely use Bayesian species delimitation methods when proposing taxonomic changes. PMID:29389966

Insights into the origin and distribution of biodiversity in the Brazilian Atlantic forest hot spot: a statistical phylogeographic study using a low-dispersal organism.

PubMed

Álvarez-Presas, M; Sánchez-Gracia, A; Carbayo, F; Rozas, J; Riutort, M

2014-06-01

The relative importance of the processes that generate and maintain biodiversity is a major and controversial topic in evolutionary biology with large implications for conservation management. The Atlantic Forest of Brazil, one of the world's richest biodiversity hot spots, is severely damaged by human activities. To formulate an efficient conservation policy, a good understanding of spatial and temporal biodiversity patterns and their underlying evolutionary mechanisms is required. With this aim, we performed a comprehensive phylogeographic study using a low-dispersal organism, the land planarian species Cephaloflexa bergi (Platyhelminthes, Tricladida). Analysing multi-locus DNA sequence variation under the Approximate Bayesian Computation framework, we evaluated two scenarios proposed to explain the diversity of Southern Atlantic Forest (SAF) region. We found that most sampled localities harbour high levels of genetic diversity, with lineages sharing common ancestors that predate the Pleistocene. Remarkably, we detected the molecular hallmark of the isolation-by-distance effect and little evidence of a recent colonization of SAF localities; nevertheless, some populations might result from very recent secondary contacts. We conclude that extant SAF biodiversity originated and has been shaped by complex interactions between ancient geological events and more recent evolutionary processes, whereas Pleistocene climate changes had a minor influence in generating present-day diversity. We also demonstrate that land planarians are an advantageous biological model for making phylogeographic and, particularly, fine-scale evolutionary inferences, and propose appropriate conservation policies.

AFLP markers provide insights into the evolutionary relationships and diversification of New Caledonian Araucaria species (Araucariaceae).

PubMed

Gaudeul, Myriam; Rouhan, Germinal; Gardner, Martin F; Hollingsworth, Peter M

2012-01-01

Despite its small size, New Caledonia is characterized by a very diverse flora and striking environmental gradients, which make it an ideal setting to study species diversification. Thirteen of the 19 Araucaria species are endemic to the territory and form a monophyletic group, but patterns and processes that lead to such a high species richness are largely unexplored. We used 142 polymorphic AFLP markers and performed analyses based on Bayesian clustering algorithms, genetic distances, and cladistics on 71 samples representing all New Caledonian Araucaria species. We examined correlations between the inferred evolutionary relationships and shared morphological, ecological, or geographic parameters among species, to investigate evolutionary processes that may have driven speciation. We showed that genetic divergence among the present New Caledonian Araucaria species is low, suggesting recent diversification rather than pre-existence on Gondwana. We identified three genetic groups that included small-leaved, large-leaved, and coastal species, but detected no association with soil preference, ecological habitat, or rainfall. The observed patterns suggested that speciation events resulted from both differential adaptation and vicariance. Last, we hypothesize that speciation is ongoing and/or there are cryptic species in some genetically (sometimes also morphologically) divergent populations. Further data are required to provide better resolution and understanding of the diversification of New Caledonian Araucaria species. Nevertheless, our study allowed insights into their evolutionary relationships and provides a framework for future investigations on the evolution of this emblematic group of plants in one of the world's biodiversity hotspots.

How to interpret the results of medical time series data analysis: Classical statistical approaches versus dynamic Bayesian network modeling.

PubMed

Onisko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J; Austin, R Marshall

2016-01-01

Classical statistics is a well-established approach in the analysis of medical data. While the medical community seems to be familiar with the concept of a statistical analysis and its interpretation, the Bayesian approach, argued by many of its proponents to be superior to the classical frequentist approach, is still not well-recognized in the analysis of medical data. The goal of this study is to encourage data analysts to use the Bayesian approach, such as modeling with graphical probabilistic networks, as an insightful alternative to classical statistical analysis of medical data. This paper offers a comparison of two approaches to analysis of medical time series data: (1) classical statistical approach, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and (2) dynamic Bayesian network modeling. Our comparison is based on time series cervical cancer screening data collected at Magee-Womens Hospital, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center over 10 years. The main outcomes of our comparison are cervical cancer risk assessments produced by the three approaches. However, our analysis discusses also several aspects of the comparison, such as modeling assumptions, model building, dealing with incomplete data, individualized risk assessment, results interpretation, and model validation. Our study shows that the Bayesian approach is (1) much more flexible in terms of modeling effort, and (2) it offers an individualized risk assessment, which is more cumbersome for classical statistical approaches.

Spatiotemporal Bayesian analysis of Lyme disease in New York state, 1990-2000.

PubMed

Chen, Haiyan; Stratton, Howard H; Caraco, Thomas B; White, Dennis J

2006-07-01

Mapping ordinarily increases our understanding of nontrivial spatial and temporal heterogeneities in disease rates. However, the large number of parameters required by the corresponding statistical models often complicates detailed analysis. This study investigates the feasibility of a fully Bayesian hierarchical regression approach to the problem and identifies how it outperforms two more popular methods: crude rate estimates (CRE) and empirical Bayes standardization (EBS). In particular, we apply a fully Bayesian approach to the spatiotemporal analysis of Lyme disease incidence in New York state for the period 1990-2000. These results are compared with those obtained by CRE and EBS in Chen et al. (2005). We show that the fully Bayesian regression model not only gives more reliable estimates of disease rates than the other two approaches but also allows for tractable models that can accommodate more numerous sources of variation and unknown parameters.

Evolutionary History and Phylodynamics of Influenza A and B Neuraminidase (NA) Genes Inferred from Large-Scale Sequence Analyses

PubMed Central

Xu, Jianpeng; Davis, C. Todd; Christman, Mary C.; Rivailler, Pierre; Zhong, Haizhen; Donis, Ruben O.; Lu, Guoqing

2012-01-01

Background Influenza neuraminidase (NA) is an important surface glycoprotein and plays a vital role in viral replication and drug development. The NA is found in influenza A and B viruses, with nine subtypes classified in influenza A. The complete knowledge of influenza NA evolutionary history and phylodynamics, although critical for the prevention and control of influenza epidemics and pandemics, remains lacking. Methodology/Principal findings Evolutionary and phylogenetic analyses of influenza NA sequences using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian MCMC methods demonstrated that the divergence of influenza viruses into types A and B occurred earlier than the divergence of influenza A NA subtypes. Twenty-three lineages were identified within influenza A, two lineages were classified within influenza B, and most lineages were specific to host, subtype or geographical location. Interestingly, evolutionary rates vary not only among lineages but also among branches within lineages. The estimated tMRCAs of influenza lineages suggest that the viruses of different lineages emerge several months or even years before their initial detection. The d N /d S ratios ranged from 0.062 to 0.313 for influenza A lineages, and 0.257 to 0.259 for influenza B lineages. Structural analyses revealed that all positively selected sites are at the surface of the NA protein, with a number of sites found to be important for host antibody and drug binding. Conclusions/Significance The divergence into influenza type A and B from a putative ancestral NA was followed by the divergence of type A into nine NA subtypes, of which 23 lineages subsequently diverged. This study provides a better understanding of influenza NA lineages and their evolutionary dynamics, which may facilitate early detection of newly emerging influenza viruses and thus improve influenza surveillance. PMID:22808012

The Evolution of Bony Vertebrate Enhancers at Odds with Their Coding Sequence Landscape.

PubMed

Yousaf, Aisha; Sohail Raza, Muhammad; Ali Abbasi, Amir

2015-08-06

Enhancers lie at the heart of transcriptional and developmental gene regulation. Therefore, changes in enhancer sequences usually disrupt the target gene expression and result in disease phenotypes. Despite the well-established role of enhancers in development and disease, evolutionary sequence studies are lacking. The current study attempts to unravel the puzzle of bony vertebrates' conserved noncoding elements (CNE) enhancer evolution. Bayesian phylogenetics of enhancer sequences spotlights promising interordinal relationships among placental mammals, proposing a closer relationship between humans and laurasiatherians while placing rodents at the basal position. Clock-based estimates of enhancer evolution provided a dynamic picture of interspecific rate changes across the bony vertebrate lineage. Moreover, coelacanth in the study augmented our appreciation of the vertebrate cis-regulatory evolution during water-land transition. Intriguingly, we observed a pronounced upsurge in enhancer evolution in land-dwelling vertebrates. These novel findings triggered us to further investigate the evolutionary trend of coding as well as CNE nonenhancer repertoires, to highlight the relative evolutionary dynamics of diverse genomic landscapes. Surprisingly, the evolutionary rates of enhancer sequences were clearly at odds with those of the coding and the CNE nonenhancer sequences during vertebrate adaptation to land, with land vertebrates exhibiting significantly reduced rates of coding sequence evolution in comparison to their fast evolving regulatory landscape. The observed variation in tetrapod cis-regulatory elements caused the fine-tuning of associated gene regulatory networks. Therefore, the increased evolutionary rate of tetrapods' enhancer sequences might be responsible for the variation in developmental regulatory circuits during the process of vertebrate adaptation to land. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Intercontinental and intracontinental biogeography of the eastern Asian - Eastern North American disjunct Panax (the ginseng genus, Araliaceae), emphasizing its diversification processes in eastern Asia.

PubMed

Zuo, Yun-Juan; Wen, Jun; Zhou, Shi-Liang

2017-12-01

The intercontinental biogeography between eastern Asia and eastern North America has attracted much attention from evolutionary biologists. Further insights into understanding the evolution of the intercontinental disjunctions have been hampered by the lack of studies on the intracontinental biogeography in eastern Asia, a region with complex geology, geography, climates and habitats. Herein we studied the biogeographic history of the eastern Asian-eastern North American disjunct genus Panax with special emphasis on the investigation of its uneven diversification in Asia. This study reconstructs the diversification history of Panax and also emphasizes a large clade of Panax taxa, which has a wide distribution in eastern Asia, but was unresolved in previous studies. We examined the noncoding plastid DNA fragments of trnH-psbA, rps16, and psbM-trnD, the mitochondrial b/c intron of NAD1, and the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region of 356 samples from 47 populations. The results revealed the subtropical Northern Hemisphere origin (Asia or Asia and North America) of Panax in the Paleocene. Intercontinental disjunctions between eastern Asia and eastern North America formed twice in Panax, once estimated in early Eocene for the split of P. trifolius and another in mid-Miocene for the divergence of P. quinquefolius. Intercontinental diversifications in Panax showed temporal correlation with the increase of global temperature. The evolutionary radiation of the P. bipinnatifidus species complex occurred around the boundary of Oligocene and Miocene. Strong genetic structure among populations of the species complex was detected and the populations may be isolated by distance. The backbone network and the Bayesian clustering analysis revealed a major evolutionary radiation centered in the Hengduan Mountains of western China. Our results suggested that the evolutionary radiation of Panax was promoted by geographic barriers, including mountain ranges (Hengduan Mountains, Nanling Mountains and Wuyishan Mountains), oceans and altitudinal shifts, which further contribute to the knowledge of the uneven species diversification between eastern Asia and North America. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data.

PubMed

Guo, Xuan; Liu, Bing; Chen, Le; Chen, Guantao; Pan, Yi; Zhang, Jing

2016-01-01

This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM), Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM), and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM), and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

Was Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus introduced into China via the ancient Silk Road? An evolutionary perspective.

PubMed

Liu, Zhenqiu; Fang, Qiwen; Zuo, Jialu; Minhas, Veenu; Wood, Charles; He, Na; Zhang, Tiejun

2017-10-01

Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV) has become widely dispersed worldwide since it was first reported in 1994, but the seroprevalence of KSHV varies geographically. KSHV is relatively ubiquitous in Mediterranean areas and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China. The origin of KSHV has long been puzzling. In the present study, we collected and analysed 154 KSHV ORF-K1 sequences obtained from samples originating from Xinjiang, Italy, Greece, Iran and southern Siberia using Bayesian evolutionary analysis in BEAST to test the hypothesis that KSHV was introduced into Xinjiang via the ancient Silk Road. According to the phylogenetic analysis, 72 sequences were subtype A and 82 subtype C, with C2 (n = 56) being the predominant subtype. The times to the most recent common ancestors (tMRCAs) of KSHV were 29,872 years (95% highest probability density [HPD], 26,851-32,760 years) for all analysed sequences and 2037 years (95% HPD, 1843-2229 years) for Xinjiang sequences in particular. The tMRCA of Xinjiang KSHV was exactly matched with the time period of the ancient Silk Road approximately two thousand years ago. This route began in Chang'an, the capital of the Han dynasty of China, and crossed Central Asia, ending in the Roman Empire. The evolution rate of KSHV was slow, with 3.44 × 10 -6 substitutions per site per year (95% HPD, 2.26 × 10 -6 to 4.71 × 10 -6 ), although 11 codons were discovered to be under positive selection pressure. The geographic distances from Italy to Iran and Xinjiang are more than 4000 and 7000 kilometres, respectively, but no explicit relationship between genetic distance and geographic distance was detected.

Historical environmental change in Africa drives divergence and admixture of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes: a precursor to successful worldwide colonization?

PubMed

Bennett, Kelly Louise; Shija, Fortunate; Linton, Yvonne-Marie; Misinzo, Gerald; Kaddumukasa, Martha; Djouaka, Rousseau; Anyaele, Okorie; Harris, Angela; Irish, Seth; Hlaing, Thaung; Prakash, Anil; Lutwama, Julius; Walton, Catherine

2016-09-01

Increasing globalization has promoted the spread of exotic species, including disease vectors. Understanding the evolutionary processes involved in such colonizations is both of intrinsic biological interest and important to predict and mitigate future disease risks. The Aedes aegypti mosquito is a major vector of dengue, chikungunya and Zika, the worldwide spread of which has been facilitated by Ae. aegypti's adaption to human-modified environments. Understanding the evolutionary processes involved in this invasion requires characterization of the genetic make-up of the source population(s). The application of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to sequence data from four nuclear and one mitochondrial marker revealed that African populations of Ae. aegypti best fit a demographic model of lineage diversification, historical admixture and recent population structuring. As ancestral Ae. aegypti were dependent on forests, this population history is consistent with the effects of forest fragmentation and expansion driven by Pleistocene climatic change. Alternatively, or additionally, historical human movement across the continent may have facilitated their recent spread and mixing. ABC analysis and haplotype networks support earlier inferences of a single out-of-Africa colonization event, while a cline of decreasing genetic diversity indicates that Ae. aegypti moved first from Africa to the Americas and then to Asia. ABC analysis was unable to verify this colonization route, possibly because the genetic signal of admixture obscures the true colonization pathway. By increasing genetic diversity and forming novel allelic combinations, divergence and historical admixture within Africa could have provided the adaptive potential needed for the successful worldwide spread of Ae. aegypti. © 2016 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Phylogeny and population dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (Rsv) A and B.

PubMed

Martinelli, Marianna; Frati, Elena Rosanna; Zappa, Alessandra; Ebranati, Erika; Bianchi, Silvia; Pariani, Elena; Amendola, Antonella; Zehender, Gianguglielmo; Tanzi, Elisabetta

2014-08-30

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of lower respiratory tract infections in infants and young children. RSV is characterised by high variability, especially in the G glycoprotein, which may play a significant role in RSV pathogenicity by allowing immune evasion. To reconstruct the origin and phylodynamic history of RSV, we evaluated the genetic diversity and evolutionary dynamics of RSV A and RSV B isolated from children under 3 years old infected in Italy from 2006 to 2012. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that most of the RSV A sequences clustered with the NA1 genotype, and RSV B sequences were included in the Buenos Aires genotype. The mean evolutionary rates for RSV A and RSV B were estimated to be 2.1 × 10(-3) substitutions (subs)/site/year and 3.03 × 10(-3) subs/site/year, respectively. The time of most recent common ancestor for the tree root went back to the 1940s (95% highest posterior density-HPD: 1927-1951) for RSV A and the 1950s (95%HPD: 1951-1960) for RSV B. The RSV A Bayesian skyline plot (BSP) showed a decrease in transmission events ending in about 2005, when a sharp growth restored the original viral population size. RSV B BSP showed a similar trend. Site-specific selection analysis identified 10 codons under positive selection in RSV A sequences and only one site in RSV B sequences. Although RSV remains difficult to control due to its antigenic diversity, it is important to monitor changes in its coding sequences, to permit the identification of future epidemic strains and to implement vaccine and therapy strategies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic structure and hierarchical population divergence history of Acer mono var. mono in South and Northeast China.

PubMed

Liu, Chunping; Tsuda, Yoshiaki; Shen, Hailong; Hu, Lijiang; Saito, Yoko; Ide, Yuji

2014-01-01

Knowledge of the genetic structure and evolutionary history of tree species across their ranges is essential for the development of effective conservation and forest management strategies. Acer mono var. mono, an economically and ecologically important maple species, is extensively distributed in Northeast China (NE), whereas it has a scattered and patchy distribution in South China (SC). In this study, the genetic structure and demographic history of 56 natural populations of A. mono var. mono were evaluated using seven nuclear microsatellite markers. Neighbor-joining tree and STRUCTURE analysis clearly separated populations into NE and SC groups with two admixed-like populations. Allelic richness significantly decreased with increasing latitude within the NE group while both allelic richness and expected heterozygosity showed significant positive correlation with latitude within the SC group. Especially in the NE region, previous studies in Quercus mongolica and Fraxinus mandshurica have also detected reductions in genetic diversity with increases in latitude, suggesting this pattern may be common for tree species in this region, probably due to expansion from single refugium following the last glacial maximum (LGM). Approximate Bayesian Computation-based analysis revealed two major features of hierarchical population divergence in the species' evolutionary history. Recent divergence between the NE group and the admixed-like group corresponded to the LGM period and ancient divergence of SC groups took place during mid-late Pleistocene period. The level of genetic differentiation was moderate (FST  = 0.073; G'ST  = 0.278) among all populations, but significantly higher in the SC group than the NE group, mirroring the species' more scattered distribution in SC. Conservation measures for this species are proposed, taking into account the genetic structure and past demographic history identified in this study.

Genetic Structure and Hierarchical Population Divergence History of Acer mono var. mono in South and Northeast China

PubMed Central

Shen, Hailong; Hu, Lijiang; Saito, Yoko; Ide, Yuji

2014-01-01

Knowledge of the genetic structure and evolutionary history of tree species across their ranges is essential for the development of effective conservation and forest management strategies. Acer mono var. mono, an economically and ecologically important maple species, is extensively distributed in Northeast China (NE), whereas it has a scattered and patchy distribution in South China (SC). In this study, the genetic structure and demographic history of 56 natural populations of A. mono var. mono were evaluated using seven nuclear microsatellite markers. Neighbor-joining tree and STRUCTURE analysis clearly separated populations into NE and SC groups with two admixed-like populations. Allelic richness significantly decreased with increasing latitude within the NE group while both allelic richness and expected heterozygosity showed significant positive correlation with latitude within the SC group. Especially in the NE region, previous studies in Quercus mongolica and Fraxinus mandshurica have also detected reductions in genetic diversity with increases in latitude, suggesting this pattern may be common for tree species in this region, probably due to expansion from single refugium following the last glacial maximum (LGM). Approximate Bayesian Computation-based analysis revealed two major features of hierarchical population divergence in the species’ evolutionary history. Recent divergence between the NE group and the admixed-like group corresponded to the LGM period and ancient divergence of SC groups took place during mid-late Pleistocene period. The level of genetic differentiation was moderate (FST = 0.073; G′ST = 0.278) among all populations, but significantly higher in the SC group than the NE group, mirroring the species’ more scattered distribution in SC. Conservation measures for this species are proposed, taking into account the genetic structure and past demographic history identified in this study. PMID:24498039

Bayesian Factor Analysis When Only a Sample Covariance Matrix Is Available

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayashi, Kentaro; Arav, Marina

2006-01-01

In traditional factor analysis, the variance-covariance matrix or the correlation matrix has often been a form of inputting data. In contrast, in Bayesian factor analysis, the entire data set is typically required to compute the posterior estimates, such as Bayes factor loadings and Bayes unique variances. We propose a simple method for computing…

A menu-driven software package of Bayesian nonparametric (and parametric) mixed models for regression analysis and density estimation.

PubMed

Karabatsos, George

2017-02-01

Most of applied statistics involves regression analysis of data. In practice, it is important to specify a regression model that has minimal assumptions which are not violated by data, to ensure that statistical inferences from the model are informative and not misleading. This paper presents a stand-alone and menu-driven software package, Bayesian Regression: Nonparametric and Parametric Models, constructed from MATLAB Compiler. Currently, this package gives the user a choice from 83 Bayesian models for data analysis. They include 47 Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) infinite-mixture regression models; 5 BNP infinite-mixture models for density estimation; and 31 normal random effects models (HLMs), including normal linear models. Each of the 78 regression models handles either a continuous, binary, or ordinal dependent variable, and can handle multi-level (grouped) data. All 83 Bayesian models can handle the analysis of weighted observations (e.g., for meta-analysis), and the analysis of left-censored, right-censored, and/or interval-censored data. Each BNP infinite-mixture model has a mixture distribution assigned one of various BNP prior distributions, including priors defined by either the Dirichlet process, Pitman-Yor process (including the normalized stable process), beta (two-parameter) process, normalized inverse-Gaussian process, geometric weights prior, dependent Dirichlet process, or the dependent infinite-probits prior. The software user can mouse-click to select a Bayesian model and perform data analysis via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. After the sampling completes, the software automatically opens text output that reports MCMC-based estimates of the model's posterior distribution and model predictive fit to the data. Additional text and/or graphical output can be generated by mouse-clicking other menu options. This includes output of MCMC convergence analyses, and estimates of the model's posterior predictive distribution, for selected functionals and values of covariates. The software is illustrated through the BNP regression analysis of real data.

Nuclear and plastid markers reveal the persistence of genetic identity: a new perspective on the evolutionary history of Petunia exserta.

PubMed

Segatto, Ana Lúcia Anversa; Cazé, Ana Luíza Ramos; Turchetto, Caroline; Klahre, Ulrich; Kuhlemeier, Cris; Bonatto, Sandro Luis; Freitas, Loreta Brandão

2014-01-01

Recently divergent species that can hybridize are ideal models for investigating the genetic exchanges that can occur while preserving the species boundaries. Petunia exserta is an endemic species from a very limited and specific area that grows exclusively in rocky shelters. These shaded spots are an inhospitable habitat for all other Petunia species, including the closely related and widely distributed species P. axillaris. Individuals with intermediate morphologic characteristics have been found near the rocky shelters and were believed to be putative hybrids between P. exserta and P. axillaris, suggesting a situation where Petunia exserta is losing its genetic identity. In the current study, we analyzed the plastid intergenic spacers trnS/trnG and trnH/psbA and six nuclear CAPS markers in a large sampling design of both species to understand the evolutionary process occurring in this biological system. Bayesian clustering methods, cpDNA haplotype networks, genetic diversity statistics, and coalescence-based analyses support a scenario where hybridization occurs while two genetic clusters corresponding to two species are maintained. Our results reinforce the importance of coupling differentially inherited markers with an extensive geographic sample to assess the evolutionary dynamics of recently diverged species that can hybridize. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evolution of sperm structure and energetics in passerine birds

PubMed Central

Rowe, Melissah; Laskemoen, Terje; Johnsen, Arild; Lifjeld, Jan T.

2013-01-01

Spermatozoa exhibit considerable interspecific variability in size and shape. Our understanding of the adaptive significance of this diversity, however, remains limited. Determining how variation in sperm structure translates into variation in sperm performance will contribute to our understanding of the evolutionary diversification of sperm form. Here, using data from passerine birds, we test the hypothesis that longer sperm swim faster because they have more available energy. We found that sperm with longer midpieces have higher levels of intracellular adenosine triphosphate (ATP), but that greater energy reserves do not translate into faster-swimming sperm. Additionally, we found that interspecific variation in sperm ATP concentration is not associated with the level of sperm competition faced by males. Finally, using Bayesian methods, we compared the evolutionary trajectories of sperm morphology and ATP content, and show that both traits have undergone directional evolutionary change. However, in contrast to recent suggestions in other taxa, we show that changes in ATP are unlikely to have preceded changes in morphology in passerine sperm. These results suggest that variable selective pressures are likely to have driven the evolution of sperm traits in different taxa, and highlight fundamental biological differences between taxa with internal and external fertilization, as well as those with and without sperm storage. PMID:23282997

Phylogeography above the species level for perennial species in a composite genus

PubMed Central

Tremetsberger, Karin; Ortiz, María Ángeles; Terrab, Anass; Balao, Francisco; Casimiro-Soriguer, Ramón; Talavera, María; Talavera, Salvador

2016-01-01

In phylogeography, DNA sequence and fingerprint data at the population level are used to infer evolutionary histories of species. Phylogeography above the species level is concerned with the genealogical aspects of divergent lineages. Here, we present a phylogeographic study to examine the evolutionary history of a western Mediterranean composite, focusing on the perennial species of Helminthotheca (Asteraceae, Cichorieae). We used molecular markers (amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP), internal transcribed spacer and plastid DNA sequences) to infer relationships among populations throughout the distributional range of the group. Interpretation is aided by biogeographic and molecular clock analyses. Four coherent entities are revealed by Bayesian mixture clustering of AFLP data, which correspond to taxa previously recognized at the rank of subspecies. The origin of the group was in western North Africa, from where it expanded across the Strait of Gibraltar to the Iberian Peninsula and across the Strait of Sicily to Sicily. Pleistocene lineage divergence is inferred within western North Africa as well as within the western Iberian region. The existence of the four entities as discrete evolutionary lineages suggests that they should be elevated to the rank of species, yielding H. aculeata, H. comosa, H. maroccana and H. spinosa, whereby the latter two necessitate new combinations. PMID:26644340

A Bayesian Approach to Genome/Linguistic Relationships in Native South Americans

PubMed Central

Amorim, Carlos Eduardo Guerra; Bisso-Machado, Rafael; Ramallo, Virginia; Bortolini, Maria Cátira; Bonatto, Sandro Luis; Salzano, Francisco Mauro; Hünemeier, Tábita

2013-01-01

The relationship between the evolution of genes and languages has been studied for over three decades. These studies rely on the assumption that languages, as many other cultural traits, evolve in a gene-like manner, accumulating heritable diversity through time and being subjected to evolutionary mechanisms of change. In the present work we used genetic data to evaluate South American linguistic classifications. We compared discordant models of language classifications to the current Native American genome-wide variation using realistic demographic models analyzed under an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework. Data on 381 STRs spread along the autosomes were gathered from the literature for populations representing the five main South Amerindian linguistic groups: Andean, Arawakan, Chibchan-Paezan, Macro-Jê, and Tupí. The results indicated a higher posterior probability for the classification proposed by J.H. Greenberg in 1987, although L. Campbell's 1997 classification cannot be ruled out. Based on Greenberg's classification, it was possible to date the time of Tupí-Arawakan divergence (2.8 kya), and the time of emergence of the structure between present day major language groups in South America (3.1 kya). PMID:23696865

A bayesian approach to genome/linguistic relationships in native South Americans.

PubMed

Amorim, Carlos Eduardo Guerra; Bisso-Machado, Rafael; Ramallo, Virginia; Bortolini, Maria Cátira; Bonatto, Sandro Luis; Salzano, Francisco Mauro; Hünemeier, Tábita

2013-01-01

The relationship between the evolution of genes and languages has been studied for over three decades. These studies rely on the assumption that languages, as many other cultural traits, evolve in a gene-like manner, accumulating heritable diversity through time and being subjected to evolutionary mechanisms of change. In the present work we used genetic data to evaluate South American linguistic classifications. We compared discordant models of language classifications to the current Native American genome-wide variation using realistic demographic models analyzed under an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework. Data on 381 STRs spread along the autosomes were gathered from the literature for populations representing the five main South Amerindian linguistic groups: Andean, Arawakan, Chibchan-Paezan, Macro-Jê, and Tupí. The results indicated a higher posterior probability for the classification proposed by J.H. Greenberg in 1987, although L. Campbell's 1997 classification cannot be ruled out. Based on Greenberg's classification, it was possible to date the time of Tupí-Arawakan divergence (2.8 kya), and the time of emergence of the structure between present day major language groups in South America (3.1 kya).

A bayesian hierarchical model for classification with selection of functional predictors.

PubMed

Zhu, Hongxiao; Vannucci, Marina; Cox, Dennis D

2010-06-01

In functional data classification, functional observations are often contaminated by various systematic effects, such as random batch effects caused by device artifacts, or fixed effects caused by sample-related factors. These effects may lead to classification bias and thus should not be neglected. Another issue of concern is the selection of functions when predictors consist of multiple functions, some of which may be redundant. The above issues arise in a real data application where we use fluorescence spectroscopy to detect cervical precancer. In this article, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model that takes into account random batch effects and selects effective functions among multiple functional predictors. Fixed effects or predictors in nonfunctional form are also included in the model. The dimension of the functional data is reduced through orthonormal basis expansion or functional principal components. For posterior sampling, we use a hybrid Metropolis-Hastings/Gibbs sampler, which suffers slow mixing. An evolutionary Monte Carlo algorithm is applied to improve the mixing. Simulation and real data application show that the proposed model provides accurate selection of functional predictors as well as good classification.

The Interrelationships of Placental Mammals and the Limits of Phylogenetic Inference.

PubMed

Tarver, James E; Dos Reis, Mario; Mirarab, Siavash; Moran, Raymond J; Parker, Sean; O'Reilly, Joseph E; King, Benjamin L; O'Connell, Mary J; Asher, Robert J; Warnow, Tandy; Peterson, Kevin J; Donoghue, Philip C J; Pisani, Davide

2016-01-05

Placental mammals comprise three principal clades: Afrotheria (e.g., elephants and tenrecs), Xenarthra (e.g., armadillos and sloths), and Boreoeutheria (all other placental mammals), the relationships among which are the subject of controversy and a touchstone for debate on the limits of phylogenetic inference. Previous analyses have found support for all three hypotheses, leading some to conclude that this phylogenetic problem might be impossible to resolve due to the compounded effects of incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) and a rapid radiation. Here we show, using a genome scale nucleotide data set, microRNAs, and the reanalysis of the three largest previously published amino acid data sets, that the root of Placentalia lies between Atlantogenata and Boreoeutheria. Although we found evidence for ILS in early placental evolution, we are able to reject previous conclusions that the placental root is a hard polytomy that cannot be resolved. Reanalyses of previous data sets recover Atlantogenata + Boreoeutheria and show that contradictory results are a consequence of poorly fitting evolutionary models; instead, when the evolutionary process is better-modeled, all data sets converge on Atlantogenata. Our Bayesian molecular clock analysis estimates that marsupials diverged from placentals 157-170 Ma, crown Placentalia diverged 86-100 Ma, and crown Atlantogenata diverged 84-97 Ma. Our results are compatible with placental diversification being driven by dispersal rather than vicariance mechanisms, postdating early phases in the protracted opening of the Atlantic Ocean. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Phylogenetic Relationships and Species Delimitation in Pinus Section Trifoliae Inferrred from Plastid DNA

PubMed Central

Hernández-León, Sergio; Gernandt, David S.; Pérez de la Rosa, Jorge A.; Jardón-Barbolla, Lev

2013-01-01

Recent diversification followed by secondary contact and hybridization may explain complex patterns of intra- and interspecific morphological and genetic variation in the North American hard pines (Pinus section Trifoliae), a group of approximately 49 tree species distributed in North and Central America and the Caribbean islands. We concatenated five plastid DNA markers for an average of 3.9 individuals per putative species and assessed the suitability of the five regions as DNA bar codes for species identification, species delimitation, and phylogenetic reconstruction. The ycf1 gene accounted for the greatest proportion of the alignment (46.9%), the greatest proportion of variable sites (74.9%), and the most unique sequences (75 haplotypes). Phylogenetic analysis recovered clades corresponding to subsections Australes, Contortae, and Ponderosae. Sequences for 23 of the 49 species were monophyletic and sequences for another 9 species were paraphyletic. Morphologically similar species within subsections usually grouped together, but there were exceptions consistent with incomplete lineage sorting or introgression. Bayesian relaxed molecular clock analyses indicated that all three subsections diversified relatively recently during the Miocene. The general mixed Yule-coalescent method gave a mixed model estimate of only 22 or 23 evolutionary entities for the plastid sequences, which corresponds to less than half the 49 species recognized based on morphological species assignments. Including more unique haplotypes per species may result in higher estimates, but low mutation rates, recent diversification, and large effective population sizes may limit the effectiveness of this method to detect evolutionary entities. PMID:23936218

Phylogenetic relationships and species delimitation in pinus section trifoliae inferrred from plastid DNA.

PubMed

Hernández-León, Sergio; Gernandt, David S; Pérez de la Rosa, Jorge A; Jardón-Barbolla, Lev

2013-01-01

Recent diversification followed by secondary contact and hybridization may explain complex patterns of intra- and interspecific morphological and genetic variation in the North American hard pines (Pinus section Trifoliae), a group of approximately 49 tree species distributed in North and Central America and the Caribbean islands. We concatenated five plastid DNA markers for an average of 3.9 individuals per putative species and assessed the suitability of the five regions as DNA bar codes for species identification, species delimitation, and phylogenetic reconstruction. The ycf1 gene accounted for the greatest proportion of the alignment (46.9%), the greatest proportion of variable sites (74.9%), and the most unique sequences (75 haplotypes). Phylogenetic analysis recovered clades corresponding to subsections Australes, Contortae, and Ponderosae. Sequences for 23 of the 49 species were monophyletic and sequences for another 9 species were paraphyletic. Morphologically similar species within subsections usually grouped together, but there were exceptions consistent with incomplete lineage sorting or introgression. Bayesian relaxed molecular clock analyses indicated that all three subsections diversified relatively recently during the Miocene. The general mixed Yule-coalescent method gave a mixed model estimate of only 22 or 23 evolutionary entities for the plastid sequences, which corresponds to less than half the 49 species recognized based on morphological species assignments. Including more unique haplotypes per species may result in higher estimates, but low mutation rates, recent diversification, and large effective population sizes may limit the effectiveness of this method to detect evolutionary entities.

Genetic Structuration, Demography and Evolutionary History of Mycobacterium tuberculosis LAM9 Sublineage in the Americas as Two Distinct Subpopulations Revealed by Bayesian Analyses

PubMed Central

Reynaud, Yann; Millet, Julie; Rastogi, Nalin

2015-01-01

Tuberculosis (TB) remains broadly present in the Americas despite intense global efforts for its control and elimination. Starting from a large dataset comprising spoligotyping (n = 21183 isolates) and 12-loci MIRU-VNTRs data (n = 4022 isolates) from a total of 31 countries of the Americas (data extracted from the SITVIT2 database), this study aimed to get an overview of lineages circulating in the Americas. A total of 17119 (80.8%) strains belonged to the Euro-American lineage 4, among which the most predominant genotypic family belonged to the Latin American and Mediterranean (LAM) lineage (n = 6386, 30.1% of strains). By combining classical phylogenetic analyses and Bayesian approaches, this study revealed for the first time a clear genetic structuration of LAM9 sublineage into two subpopulations named LAM9C1 and LAM9C2, with distinct genetic characteristics. LAM9C1 was predominant in Chile, Colombia and USA, while LAM9C2 was predominant in Brazil, Dominican Republic, Guadeloupe and French Guiana. Globally, LAM9C2 was characterized by higher allelic richness as compared to LAM9C1 isolates. Moreover, LAM9C2 sublineage appeared to expand close to twenty times more than LAM9C1 and showed older traces of expansion. Interestingly, a significant proportion of LAM9C2 isolates presented typical signature of ancestral LAM-RDRio MIRU-VNTR type (224226153321). Further studies based on Whole Genome Sequencing of LAM strains will provide the needed resolution to decipher the biogeographical structure and evolutionary history of this successful family. PMID:26517715

Deep divergence and structure in the Tropical Oceanic Pacific: a multilocus phylogeography of a widespread gekkonid lizard (Squamata: Gekkonidae: Gehyra oceanica)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tonione, Maria A.; Fisher, Robert N.; Zhu, Catherine; Moritz, Craig

2016-01-01

Aim The islands of the Tropical Oceanic Pacific (TOP) host both local radiations and widespread, colonizing species. The few phylogeographical analyses of widespread species often point to recent human-aided expansions through the Pacific, suggesting that the communities are recently assembled. Here we apply multilocus data to infer biogeographical history of the gekkonid lizard, Gehyra oceanica, which is widespread, but for which prior analyses suggested a pre-human history and in situ diversification. Location Tropical Oceanic Pacific. Methods We generated a data set including mtDNA and diagnostic SNPs for 173 individuals of G. oceanica spanning Micronesia, Melanesia, and Polynesia. For a subset of these individuals, we also sequenced nuclear loci. From these data, we performed maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference to reveal major clades. We also performed Bayesian clustering analyses and coalescence–based species delimitation tests to infer the number of species in this area. Results We found evidence for six independent evolutionary lineages (candidate species) within G. oceanica that diverged between the Pliocene and the early Pleistocene, with high diversity through northern Melanesia, and pairing of northern Melanesian endemic taxa with widespread lineages across Micronesia and Polynesia. Main conclusions The islands of northern Melanesia not only have unrecognized diversity, but also were the source of independent expansions of lineages through the more remote northern and eastern Pacific. These results highlight the very different evolutionary histories of island faunas on remote archipelagos versus those across Melanesia and point to the need for more intensive studies of fauna within Melanesia if we are to understand the evolution of diversity across the tropical Pacific.

Extensively Parameterized Mutation-Selection Models Reliably Capture Site-Specific Selective Constraint.

PubMed

Spielman, Stephanie J; Wilke, Claus O

2016-11-01

The mutation-selection model of coding sequence evolution has received renewed attention for its use in estimating site-specific amino acid propensities and selection coefficient distributions. Two computationally tractable mutation-selection inference frameworks have been introduced: One framework employs a fixed-effects, highly parameterized maximum likelihood approach, whereas the other employs a random-effects Bayesian Dirichlet Process approach. While both implementations follow the same model, they appear to make distinct predictions about the distribution of selection coefficients. The fixed-effects framework estimates a large proportion of highly deleterious substitutions, whereas the random-effects framework estimates that all substitutions are either nearly neutral or weakly deleterious. It remains unknown, however, how accurately each method infers evolutionary constraints at individual sites. Indeed, selection coefficient distributions pool all site-specific inferences, thereby obscuring a precise assessment of site-specific estimates. Therefore, in this study, we use a simulation-based strategy to determine how accurately each approach recapitulates the selective constraint at individual sites. We find that the fixed-effects approach, despite its extensive parameterization, consistently and accurately estimates site-specific evolutionary constraint. By contrast, the random-effects Bayesian approach systematically underestimates the strength of natural selection, particularly for slowly evolving sites. We also find that, despite the strong differences between their inferred selection coefficient distributions, the fixed- and random-effects approaches yield surprisingly similar inferences of site-specific selective constraint. We conclude that the fixed-effects mutation-selection framework provides the more reliable software platform for model application and future development. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Genetic Structuration, Demography and Evolutionary History of Mycobacterium tuberculosis LAM9 Sublineage in the Americas as Two Distinct Subpopulations Revealed by Bayesian Analyses.

PubMed

Reynaud, Yann; Millet, Julie; Rastogi, Nalin

2015-01-01

Tuberculosis (TB) remains broadly present in the Americas despite intense global efforts for its control and elimination. Starting from a large dataset comprising spoligotyping (n = 21183 isolates) and 12-loci MIRU-VNTRs data (n = 4022 isolates) from a total of 31 countries of the Americas (data extracted from the SITVIT2 database), this study aimed to get an overview of lineages circulating in the Americas. A total of 17119 (80.8%) strains belonged to the Euro-American lineage 4, among which the most predominant genotypic family belonged to the Latin American and Mediterranean (LAM) lineage (n = 6386, 30.1% of strains). By combining classical phylogenetic analyses and Bayesian approaches, this study revealed for the first time a clear genetic structuration of LAM9 sublineage into two subpopulations named LAM9C1 and LAM9C2, with distinct genetic characteristics. LAM9C1 was predominant in Chile, Colombia and USA, while LAM9C2 was predominant in Brazil, Dominican Republic, Guadeloupe and French Guiana. Globally, LAM9C2 was characterized by higher allelic richness as compared to LAM9C1 isolates. Moreover, LAM9C2 sublineage appeared to expand close to twenty times more than LAM9C1 and showed older traces of expansion. Interestingly, a significant proportion of LAM9C2 isolates presented typical signature of ancestral LAM-RDRio MIRU-VNTR type (224226153321). Further studies based on Whole Genome Sequencing of LAM strains will provide the needed resolution to decipher the biogeographical structure and evolutionary history of this successful family.

Fully Bayesian inference for structural MRI: application to segmentation and statistical analysis of T2-hypointensities.

PubMed

Schmidt, Paul; Schmid, Volker J; Gaser, Christian; Buck, Dorothea; Bührlen, Susanne; Förschler, Annette; Mühlau, Mark

2013-01-01

Aiming at iron-related T2-hypointensity, which is related to normal aging and neurodegenerative processes, we here present two practicable approaches, based on Bayesian inference, for preprocessing and statistical analysis of a complex set of structural MRI data. In particular, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods were used to simulate posterior distributions. First, we rendered a segmentation algorithm that uses outlier detection based on model checking techniques within a Bayesian mixture model. Second, we rendered an analytical tool comprising a Bayesian regression model with smoothness priors (in the form of Gaussian Markov random fields) mitigating the necessity to smooth data prior to statistical analysis. For validation, we used simulated data and MRI data of 27 healthy controls (age: [Formula: see text]; range, [Formula: see text]). We first observed robust segmentation of both simulated T2-hypointensities and gray-matter regions known to be T2-hypointense. Second, simulated data and images of segmented T2-hypointensity were analyzed. We found not only robust identification of simulated effects but also a biologically plausible age-related increase of T2-hypointensity primarily within the dentate nucleus but also within the globus pallidus, substantia nigra, and red nucleus. Our results indicate that fully Bayesian inference can successfully be applied for preprocessing and statistical analysis of structural MRI data.

Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

PubMed Central

Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.; Piatek, Rémi

2014-01-01

This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates from a high dimensional set of psychological measurements. PMID:25431517

Evolutionary history of Otophysi (Teleostei), a major clade of the modern freshwater fishes: Pangaean origin and Mesozoic radiation

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Freshwater harbors approximately 12,000 fish species accounting for 43% of the diversity of all modern fish. A single ancestral lineage evolved into about two-thirds of this enormous biodiversity (≈ 7900 spp.) and is currently distributed throughout the world's continents except Antarctica. Despite such remarkable species diversity and ubiquity, the evolutionary history of this major freshwater fish clade, Otophysi, remains largely unexplored. To gain insight into the history of otophysan diversification, we constructed a timetree based on whole mitogenome sequences across 110 species representing 55 of the 64 families. Results Partitioned maximum likelihood analysis based on unambiguously aligned sequences (9923 bp) confidently recovered the monophyly of Otophysi and the two constituent subgroups (Cypriniformes and Characiphysi). The latter clade comprised three orders (Gymnotiformes, Characiformes, Siluriformes), and Gymnotiformes was sister to the latter two groups. One of the two suborders in Characiformes (Characoidei) was more closely related to Siluriformes than to its own suborder (Citharinoidei), rendering the characiforms paraphyletic. Although this novel relationship did not receive strong statistical support, it was supported by analyzing independent nuclear markers. A relaxed molecular clock Bayesian analysis of the divergence times and reconstruction of ancestral habitats on the timetree suggest a Pangaean origin and Mesozoic radiation of otophysans. Conclusions The present timetree demonstrates that survival of the ancestral lineages through the two consecutive mass extinctions on Pangaea, and subsequent radiations during the Jurassic through early Cretaceous shaped the modern familial diversity of otophysans. This evolutionary scenario is consistent with recent arguments based on biogeographic inferences and molecular divergence time estimates. No fossil otophysan, however, has been recorded before the Albian, the early Cretaceous 100-112 Ma, creating an over 100 million year time span without fossil evidence. This formidable ghost range partially reflects a genuine difference between the estimated ages of stem group origin (molecular divergence time) and crown group morphological diversification (fossil divergence time); the ghost range, however, would be filled with discoveries of older fossils that can be used as more reasonable time constraints as well as with developments of more realistic models that capture the rates of molecular sequences accurately. PMID:21693066

Evolutionary history of Otophysi (Teleostei), a major clade of the modern freshwater fishes: Pangaean origin and Mesozoic radiation.

PubMed

Nakatani, Masanori; Miya, Masaki; Mabuchi, Kohji; Saitoh, Kenji; Nishida, Mutsumi

2011-06-22

Freshwater harbors approximately 12,000 fish species accounting for 43% of the diversity of all modern fish. A single ancestral lineage evolved into about two-thirds of this enormous biodiversity (≈ 7900 spp.) and is currently distributed throughout the world's continents except Antarctica. Despite such remarkable species diversity and ubiquity, the evolutionary history of this major freshwater fish clade, Otophysi, remains largely unexplored. To gain insight into the history of otophysan diversification, we constructed a timetree based on whole mitogenome sequences across 110 species representing 55 of the 64 families. Partitioned maximum likelihood analysis based on unambiguously aligned sequences (9923 bp) confidently recovered the monophyly of Otophysi and the two constituent subgroups (Cypriniformes and Characiphysi). The latter clade comprised three orders (Gymnotiformes, Characiformes, Siluriformes), and Gymnotiformes was sister to the latter two groups. One of the two suborders in Characiformes (Characoidei) was more closely related to Siluriformes than to its own suborder (Citharinoidei), rendering the characiforms paraphyletic. Although this novel relationship did not receive strong statistical support, it was supported by analyzing independent nuclear markers. A relaxed molecular clock Bayesian analysis of the divergence times and reconstruction of ancestral habitats on the timetree suggest a Pangaean origin and Mesozoic radiation of otophysans. The present timetree demonstrates that survival of the ancestral lineages through the two consecutive mass extinctions on Pangaea, and subsequent radiations during the Jurassic through early Cretaceous shaped the modern familial diversity of otophysans. This evolutionary scenario is consistent with recent arguments based on biogeographic inferences and molecular divergence time estimates. No fossil otophysan, however, has been recorded before the Albian, the early Cretaceous 100-112 Ma, creating an over 100 million year time span without fossil evidence. This formidable ghost range partially reflects a genuine difference between the estimated ages of stem group origin (molecular divergence time) and crown group morphological diversification (fossil divergence time); the ghost range, however, would be filled with discoveries of older fossils that can be used as more reasonable time constraints as well as with developments of more realistic models that capture the rates of molecular sequences accurately.

SIBIS: a Bayesian model for inconsistent protein sequence estimation.

PubMed

Khenoussi, Walyd; Vanhoutrève, Renaud; Poch, Olivier; Thompson, Julie D

2014-09-01

The prediction of protein coding genes is a major challenge that depends on the quality of genome sequencing, the accuracy of the model used to elucidate the exonic structure of the genes and the complexity of the gene splicing process leading to different protein variants. As a consequence, today's protein databases contain a huge amount of inconsistency, due to both natural variants and sequence prediction errors. We have developed a new method, called SIBIS, to detect such inconsistencies based on the evolutionary information in multiple sequence alignments. A Bayesian framework, combined with Dirichlet mixture models, is used to estimate the probability of observing specific amino acids and to detect inconsistent or erroneous sequence segments. We evaluated the performance of SIBIS on a reference set of protein sequences with experimentally validated errors and showed that the sensitivity is significantly higher than previous methods, with only a small loss of specificity. We also assessed a large set of human sequences from the UniProt database and found evidence of inconsistency in 48% of the previously uncharacterized sequences. We conclude that the integration of quality control methods like SIBIS in automatic analysis pipelines will be critical for the robust inference of structural, functional and phylogenetic information from these sequences. Source code, implemented in C on a linux system, and the datasets of protein sequences are freely available for download at http://www.lbgi.fr/∼julie/SIBIS. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Bayesian inference of shared recombination hotspots between humans and chimpanzees.

PubMed

Wang, Ying; Rannala, Bruce

2014-12-01

Recombination generates variation and facilitates evolution. Recombination (or lack thereof) also contributes to human genetic disease. Methods for mapping genes influencing complex genetic diseases via association rely on linkage disequilibrium (LD) in human populations, which is influenced by rates of recombination across the genome. Comparative population genomic analyses of recombination using related primate species can identify factors influencing rates of recombination in humans. Such studies can indicate how variable hotspots for recombination may be both among individuals (or populations) and over evolutionary timescales. Previous studies have suggested that locations of recombination hotspots are not conserved between humans and chimpanzees. We made use of the data sets from recent resequencing projects and applied a Bayesian method for identifying hotspots and estimating recombination rates. We also reanalyzed SNP data sets for regions with known hotspots in humans using samples from the human and chimpanzee. The Bayes factors (BF) of shared recombination hotspots between human and chimpanzee across regions were obtained. Based on the analysis of the aligned regions of human chromosome 21, locations where the two species show evidence of shared recombination hotspots (with high BFs) were identified. Interestingly, previous comparative studies of human and chimpanzee that focused on the known human recombination hotspots within the β-globin and HLA regions did not find overlapping of hotspots. Our results show high BFs of shared hotspots at locations within both regions, and the estimated locations of shared hotspots overlap with the locations of human recombination hotspots obtained from sperm-typing studies. Copyright © 2014 by the Genetics Society of America.

Molecular phylogenetic analysis supports a Gondwanan origin of the Hyriidae (Mollusca: Bivalvia: Unionida) and the paraphyly of Australasian taxa.

PubMed

Graf, Daniel L; Jones, Hugh; Geneva, Anthony J; Pfeiffer, John M; Klunzinger, Michael W

2015-04-01

The freshwater mussel family Hyriidae (Mollusca: Bivalvia: Unionida) has a disjunct trans-Pacific distribution in Australasia and South America. Previous phylogenetic analyses have estimated the evolutionary relationships of the family and the major infra-familial taxa (Velesunioninae and Hyriinae: Hyridellini in Australia; Hyriinae: Hyriini, Castaliini, and Rhipidodontini in South America), but taxon and character sampling have been too incomplete to support a predictive classification or allow testing of biogeographical hypotheses. We sampled 30 freshwater mussel individuals representing the aforementioned hyriid taxa, as well as outgroup species representing the five other freshwater mussel families and their marine sister group (order Trigoniida). Our ingroup included representatives of all Australian genera. Phylogenetic relationships were estimated from three gene fragments (nuclear 28S, COI and 16S mtDNA) using maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference, and we applied a Bayesian relaxed clock model calibrated with fossil dates to estimate node ages. Our analyses found good support for monophyly of the Hyriidae and the subfamilies and tribes, as well as the paraphyly of the Australasian taxa (Velesunioninae, (Hyridellini, (Rhipidodontini, (Castaliini, Hyriini)))). The Hyriidae was recovered as sister to a clade comprised of all other Recent freshwater mussel families. Our molecular date estimation supported Cretaceous origins of the major hyriid clades, pre-dating the Tertiary isolation of South America from Antarctica/Australia. We hypothesize that early diversification of the Hyriidae was driven by terrestrial barriers on Gondwana rather than marine barriers following disintegration of the super-continent. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

2D Bayesian automated tilted-ring fitting of disc galaxies in large H I galaxy surveys: 2DBAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Se-Heon; Staveley-Smith, Lister; Spekkens, Kristine; Kamphuis, Peter; Koribalski, Bärbel S.

2018-01-01

We present a novel algorithm based on a Bayesian method for 2D tilted-ring analysis of disc galaxy velocity fields. Compared to the conventional algorithms based on a chi-squared minimization procedure, this new Bayesian-based algorithm suffers less from local minima of the model parameters even with highly multimodal posterior distributions. Moreover, the Bayesian analysis, implemented via Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, only requires broad ranges of posterior distributions of the parameters, which makes the fitting procedure fully automated. This feature will be essential when performing kinematic analysis on the large number of resolved galaxies expected to be detected in neutral hydrogen (H I) surveys with the Square Kilometre Array and its pathfinders. The so-called 2D Bayesian Automated Tilted-ring fitter (2DBAT) implements Bayesian fits of 2D tilted-ring models in order to derive rotation curves of galaxies. We explore 2DBAT performance on (a) artificial H I data cubes built based on representative rotation curves of intermediate-mass and massive spiral galaxies, and (b) Australia Telescope Compact Array H I data from the Local Volume H I Survey. We find that 2DBAT works best for well-resolved galaxies with intermediate inclinations (20° < i < 70°), complementing 3D techniques better suited to modelling inclined galaxies.

Applying Bayesian Modeling and Receiver Operating Characteristic Methodologies for Test Utility Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Qiu; Diemer, Matthew A.; Maier, Kimberly S.

2013-01-01

This study integrated Bayesian hierarchical modeling and receiver operating characteristic analysis (BROCA) to evaluate how interest strength (IS) and interest differentiation (ID) predicted low–socioeconomic status (SES) youth's interest-major congruence (IMC). Using large-scale Kuder Career Search online-assessment data, this study fit three…

Metrics for evaluating performance and uncertainty of Bayesian network models

Treesearch

Bruce G. Marcot

2012-01-01

This paper presents a selected set of existing and new metrics for gauging Bayesian network model performance and uncertainty. Selected existing and new metrics are discussed for conducting model sensitivity analysis (variance reduction, entropy reduction, case file simulation); evaluating scenarios (influence analysis); depicting model complexity (numbers of model...

Monte Carlo Algorithms for a Bayesian Analysis of the Cosmic Microwave Background

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jewell, Jeffrey B.; Eriksen, H. K.; ODwyer, I. J.; Wandelt, B. D.; Gorski, K.; Knox, L.; Chu, M.

2006-01-01

A viewgraph presentation on the review of Bayesian approach to Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) analysis, numerical implementation with Gibbs sampling, a summary of application to WMAP I and work in progress with generalizations to polarization, foregrounds, asymmetric beams, and 1/f noise is given.

Bayesian analysis of rare events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Straub, Daniel, E-mail: straub@tum.de; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

2016-06-01

In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into themore » probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.« less

Implementing informative priors for heterogeneity in meta-analysis using meta-regression and pseudo data.

PubMed

Rhodes, Kirsty M; Turner, Rebecca M; White, Ian R; Jackson, Dan; Spiegelhalter, David J; Higgins, Julian P T

2016-12-20

Many meta-analyses combine results from only a small number of studies, a situation in which the between-study variance is imprecisely estimated when standard methods are applied. Bayesian meta-analysis allows incorporation of external evidence on heterogeneity, providing the potential for more robust inference on the effect size of interest. We present a method for performing Bayesian meta-analysis using data augmentation, in which we represent an informative conjugate prior for between-study variance by pseudo data and use meta-regression for estimation. To assist in this, we derive predictive inverse-gamma distributions for the between-study variance expected in future meta-analyses. These may serve as priors for heterogeneity in new meta-analyses. In a simulation study, we compare approximate Bayesian methods using meta-regression and pseudo data against fully Bayesian approaches based on importance sampling techniques and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We compare the frequentist properties of these Bayesian methods with those of the commonly used frequentist DerSimonian and Laird procedure. The method is implemented in standard statistical software and provides a less complex alternative to standard MCMC approaches. An importance sampling approach produces almost identical results to standard MCMC approaches, and results obtained through meta-regression and pseudo data are very similar. On average, data augmentation provides closer results to MCMC, if implemented using restricted maximum likelihood estimation rather than DerSimonian and Laird or maximum likelihood estimation. The methods are applied to real datasets, and an extension to network meta-analysis is described. The proposed method facilitates Bayesian meta-analysis in a way that is accessible to applied researchers. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Improved inference in Bayesian segmentation using Monte Carlo sampling: application to hippocampal subfield volumetry.

PubMed

Iglesias, Juan Eugenio; Sabuncu, Mert Rory; Van Leemput, Koen

2013-10-01

Many segmentation algorithms in medical image analysis use Bayesian modeling to augment local image appearance with prior anatomical knowledge. Such methods often contain a large number of free parameters that are first estimated and then kept fixed during the actual segmentation process. However, a faithful Bayesian analysis would marginalize over such parameters, accounting for their uncertainty by considering all possible values they may take. Here we propose to incorporate this uncertainty into Bayesian segmentation methods in order to improve the inference process. In particular, we approximate the required marginalization over model parameters using computationally efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We illustrate the proposed approach using a recently developed Bayesian method for the segmentation of hippocampal subfields in brain MRI scans, showing a significant improvement in an Alzheimer's disease classification task. As an additional benefit, the technique also allows one to compute informative "error bars" on the volume estimates of individual structures. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved Inference in Bayesian Segmentation Using Monte Carlo Sampling: Application to Hippocampal Subfield Volumetry

PubMed Central

Iglesias, Juan Eugenio; Sabuncu, Mert Rory; Leemput, Koen Van

2013-01-01

Many segmentation algorithms in medical image analysis use Bayesian modeling to augment local image appearance with prior anatomical knowledge. Such methods often contain a large number of free parameters that are first estimated and then kept fixed during the actual segmentation process. However, a faithful Bayesian analysis would marginalize over such parameters, accounting for their uncertainty by considering all possible values they may take. Here we propose to incorporate this uncertainty into Bayesian segmentation methods in order to improve the inference process. In particular, we approximate the required marginalization over model parameters using computationally efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We illustrate the proposed approach using a recently developed Bayesian method for the segmentation of hippocampal subfields in brain MRI scans, showing a significant improvement in an Alzheimer’s disease classification task. As an additional benefit, the technique also allows one to compute informative “error bars” on the volume estimates of individual structures. PMID:23773521

Age estimation by assessment of pulp chamber volume: a Bayesian network for the evaluation of dental evidence.

PubMed

Sironi, Emanuele; Taroni, Franco; Baldinotti, Claudio; Nardi, Cosimo; Norelli, Gian-Aristide; Gallidabino, Matteo; Pinchi, Vilma

2017-11-14

The present study aimed to investigate the performance of a Bayesian method in the evaluation of dental age-related evidence collected by means of a geometrical approximation procedure of the pulp chamber volume. Measurement of this volume was based on three-dimensional cone beam computed tomography images. The Bayesian method was applied by means of a probabilistic graphical model, namely a Bayesian network. Performance of that method was investigated in terms of accuracy and bias of the decisional outcomes. Influence of an informed elicitation of the prior belief of chronological age was also studied by means of a sensitivity analysis. Outcomes in terms of accuracy were adequate with standard requirements for forensic adult age estimation. Findings also indicated that the Bayesian method does not show a particular tendency towards under- or overestimation of the age variable. Outcomes of the sensitivity analysis showed that results on estimation are improved with a ration elicitation of the prior probabilities of age.

Inter- and intra-specific genetic divergence of Asian tiger frogs (genus Hoplobatrachus), with special reference to the population structure of H. tigerinus in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Sultana, Nasrin; Igawa, Takeshi; Islam, Mohammed Mafizul; Hasan, Mahmudul; Alam, Mohammad Shafiqul; Komaki, Shohei; Kawamura, Kensuke; Khan, Md Mukhlesur Rahman; Sumida, Masayuki

2017-03-17

The five frog species of the genus Hoplobatrachus are widely distributed in Asia and Africa, with Asia being considered the genus' origin. However, the evolutionary relationships of Asian Hoplobatrachus species remain ambiguous. Additionally, genetic diversity and fundamental differentiation processes within species have not been studied. We conducted molecular phylogenetic analysis on Asian Hoplobatrachus frogs and population genetic analysis on H. tigerinus in Bangladesh using the mitochondrial CYTB gene and 21 microsatellite markers. The resultant phylogenetic tree revealed monophyly in each species, notwithstanding the involvement of cryptic species in H. chinensis and H. tigerinus, which are evident from the higher genetic divergence between populations. Bayesian inference of population structure revealed genetic divergence between western and eastern H. tigerinus populations in Bangladesh, suggesting restricted gene flow caused by barriers posed by major rivers. However, genetic distances among populations were generally low. A discrete population is located in the low riverine delta region, which likely reflects long-distance dispersal. These results strongly suggest that the environment specific to this river system has maintained the population structure of H. tigerinus in this region.

Luria-Delbrück Revisited: The Classic Experiment Doesn't Rule out Lamarckian Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, Caroline; Ghafari, Mahan; Abbas, Anzar; Saravanan, Varun; Nemenman, Ilya

We re-examine data from the classic 1943 Luria-Delbruck fluctuation experiment. This experiment is often credited with establishing that phage resistance in bacteria is acquired through a Darwinian mechanism (natural selection on standing variation) rather than through a Lamarckian mechanism (environmentally induced mutations). We argue that, for the Lamarckian model of evolution to be ruled out by the experiment, the experiment must favor pure Darwinian evolution over both the Lamarckian model and a model that allows both Darwinian and Lamarckian mechanisms. Analysis of the combined model was not performed in the 1943 paper, and nor was analysis of the possibility of neither model fitting the experiment. Using Bayesian model selection, we find that: 1) all datasets from the paper favor Darwinian over purely Lamarckian evolution, 2) some of the datasets are unable to distinguish between the purely Darwinian and the combined models, and 3) the other datasets cannot be explained by any of the models considered. In summary, the classic experiment cannot rule out Lamarckian contributions to the evolutionary dynamics. This work was supported by National Science Foundation Grant 1410978, NIH training Grant 5R90DA033462, and James S. McDonnell Foundation Grant 220020321.

Next Steps in Bayesian Structural Equation Models: Comments on, Variations of, and Extensions to Muthen and Asparouhov (2012)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rindskopf, David

2012-01-01

Muthen and Asparouhov (2012) made a strong case for the advantages of Bayesian methodology in factor analysis and structural equation models. I show additional extensions and adaptations of their methods and show how non-Bayesians can take advantage of many (though not all) of these advantages by using interval restrictions on parameters. By…

A Bayesian Approach to Person Fit Analysis in Item Response Theory Models. Research Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glas, Cees A. W.; Meijer, Rob R.

A Bayesian approach to the evaluation of person fit in item response theory (IRT) models is presented. In a posterior predictive check, the observed value on a discrepancy variable is positioned in its posterior distribution. In a Bayesian framework, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure can be used to generate samples of the posterior distribution…

Bayesian Latent Class Analysis Tutorial.

PubMed

Li, Yuelin; Lord-Bessen, Jennifer; Shiyko, Mariya; Loeb, Rebecca

2018-01-01

This article is a how-to guide on Bayesian computation using Gibbs sampling, demonstrated in the context of Latent Class Analysis (LCA). It is written for students in quantitative psychology or related fields who have a working knowledge of Bayes Theorem and conditional probability and have experience in writing computer programs in the statistical language R . The overall goals are to provide an accessible and self-contained tutorial, along with a practical computation tool. We begin with how Bayesian computation is typically described in academic articles. Technical difficulties are addressed by a hypothetical, worked-out example. We show how Bayesian computation can be broken down into a series of simpler calculations, which can then be assembled together to complete a computationally more complex model. The details are described much more explicitly than what is typically available in elementary introductions to Bayesian modeling so that readers are not overwhelmed by the mathematics. Moreover, the provided computer program shows how Bayesian LCA can be implemented with relative ease. The computer program is then applied in a large, real-world data set and explained line-by-line. We outline the general steps in how to extend these considerations to other methodological applications. We conclude with suggestions for further readings.

Bayesian multimodel inference for dose-response studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Albers, P.H.

2007-01-01

Statistical inference in dose?response studies is model-based: The analyst posits a mathematical model of the relation between exposure and response, estimates parameters of the model, and reports conclusions conditional on the model. Such analyses rarely include any accounting for the uncertainties associated with model selection. The Bayesian inferential system provides a convenient framework for model selection and multimodel inference. In this paper we briefly describe the Bayesian paradigm and Bayesian multimodel inference. We then present a family of models for multinomial dose?response data and apply Bayesian multimodel inferential methods to the analysis of data on the reproductive success of American kestrels (Falco sparveriuss) exposed to various sublethal dietary concentrations of methylmercury.

Phylodynamic Analysis of Clinical and Environmental Vibrio cholerae Isolates from Haiti Reveals Diversification Driven by Positive Selection

PubMed Central

Azarian, Taj; Ali, Afsar; Johnson, Judith A.; Mohr, David; Prosperi, Mattia; Veras, Nazle M.; Jubair, Mohammed; Strickland, Samantha L.; Rashid, Mohammad H.; Alam, Meer T.; Weppelmann, Thomas A.; Katz, Lee S.; Tarr, Cheryl L.; Colwell, Rita R.

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT Phylodynamic analysis of genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data is a powerful tool to investigate underlying evolutionary processes of bacterial epidemics. The method was applied to investigate a collection of 65 clinical and environmental isolates of Vibrio cholerae from Haiti collected between 2010 and 2012. Characterization of isolates recovered from environmental samples identified a total of four toxigenic V. cholerae O1 isolates, four non-O1/O139 isolates, and a novel nontoxigenic V. cholerae O1 isolate with the classical tcpA gene. Phylogenies of strains were inferred from genome-wide SNPs using coalescent-based demographic models within a Bayesian framework. A close phylogenetic relationship between clinical and environmental toxigenic V. cholerae O1 strains was observed. As cholera spread throughout Haiti between October 2010 and August 2012, the population size initially increased and then fluctuated over time. Selection analysis along internal branches of the phylogeny showed a steady accumulation of synonymous substitutions and a progressive increase of nonsynonymous substitutions over time, suggesting diversification likely was driven by positive selection. Short-term accumulation of nonsynonymous substitutions driven by selection may have significant implications for virulence, transmission dynamics, and even vaccine efficacy. PMID:25538191

A combined chloroplast atpB-rbcL and trnL-F phylogeny unveils the ancestry of balsams (Impatiens spp.) in the Western Ghats of India.

PubMed

Shajitha, P P; Dhanesh, N R; Ebin, P J; Laly, Joseph; Aneesha, Devassy; Reshma, John; Augustine, Jomy; Linu, Mathew

2016-12-01

Only a few Impatiens spp. from South India (one of the five centers of diversity for Impatiens species) were included in the published datum of molecular phylogeny of the family Balsaminaceae. The present investigation is a novel attempt to reveal the phylogenetic association of Impatiens species of South India, by placing them in the global phylogeny of Impatiens based on a combined analysis of two chloroplast genes. Thirty species of genus Impatiens were collected from different locations of South India. Total genomic DNA was extracted from fresh plant leaf, and polymerase chain reaction was carried out using atpB-rbcL and trnL-F intergenic spacer-specific forward and reverse primers. Thirteen sequences of Impatiens species from three centers of diversity were obtained from GenBank for reconstructing the evolutionary relationships within the genus Impatiens. Bayesian inference analysis was carried out in MrBayes v.3.2.2. This analysis supported Southeast Asia as the ancestral place of origin of extant Impatiens species. Molecular phylogeny of South Indian Impatiens spp. based on combined chloroplast sequences showed the same association as that of morphological taxonomy. Sections Scapigerae, Tomentosae, Sub-Umbellatae, and Racemosae showed Southeast Asian relationship, while sections Annuae and Microsepalae showed African affinity.

Phylogenetic Information Content of Copepoda Ribosomal DNA Repeat Units: ITS1 and ITS2 Impact

PubMed Central

Zagoskin, Maxim V.; Lazareva, Valentina I.; Grishanin, Andrey K.; Mukha, Dmitry V.

2014-01-01

The utility of various regions of the ribosomal repeat unit for phylogenetic analysis was examined in 16 species representing four families, nine genera, and two orders of the subclass Copepoda (Crustacea). Fragments approximately 2000 bp in length containing the ribosomal DNA (rDNA) 18S and 28S gene fragments, the 5.8S gene, and the internal transcribed spacer regions I and II (ITS1 and ITS2) were amplified and analyzed. The DAMBE (Data Analysis in Molecular Biology and Evolution) software was used to analyze the saturation of nucleotide substitutions; this test revealed the suitability of both the 28S gene fragment and the ITS1/ITS2 rDNA regions for the reconstruction of phylogenetic trees. Distance (minimum evolution) and probabilistic (maximum likelihood, Bayesian) analyses of the data revealed that the 28S rDNA and the ITS1 and ITS2 regions are informative markers for inferring phylogenetic relationships among families of copepods and within the Cyclopidae family and associated genera. Split-graph analysis of concatenated ITS1/ITS2 rDNA regions of cyclopoid copepods suggested that the Mesocyclops, Thermocyclops, and Macrocyclops genera share complex evolutionary relationships. This study revealed that the ITS1 and ITS2 regions potentially represent different phylogenetic signals. PMID:25215300

Bayesian B-spline mapping for dynamic quantitative traits.

PubMed

Xing, Jun; Li, Jiahan; Yang, Runqing; Zhou, Xiaojing; Xu, Shizhong

2012-04-01

Owing to their ability and flexibility to describe individual gene expression at different time points, random regression (RR) analyses have become a popular procedure for the genetic analysis of dynamic traits whose phenotypes are collected over time. Specifically, when modelling the dynamic patterns of gene expressions in the RR framework, B-splines have been proved successful as an alternative to orthogonal polynomials. In the so-called Bayesian B-spline quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping, B-splines are used to characterize the patterns of QTL effects and individual-specific time-dependent environmental errors over time, and the Bayesian shrinkage estimation method is employed to estimate model parameters. Extensive simulations demonstrate that (1) in terms of statistical power, Bayesian B-spline mapping outperforms the interval mapping based on the maximum likelihood; (2) for the simulated dataset with complicated growth curve simulated by B-splines, Legendre polynomial-based Bayesian mapping is not capable of identifying the designed QTLs accurately, even when higher-order Legendre polynomials are considered and (3) for the simulated dataset using Legendre polynomials, the Bayesian B-spline mapping can find the same QTLs as those identified by Legendre polynomial analysis. All simulation results support the necessity and flexibility of B-spline in Bayesian mapping of dynamic traits. The proposed method is also applied to a real dataset, where QTLs controlling the growth trajectory of stem diameters in Populus are located.

Bayesian inference for psychology. Part II: Example applications with JASP.

PubMed

Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Love, Jonathon; Marsman, Maarten; Jamil, Tahira; Ly, Alexander; Verhagen, Josine; Selker, Ravi; Gronau, Quentin F; Dropmann, Damian; Boutin, Bruno; Meerhoff, Frans; Knight, Patrick; Raj, Akash; van Kesteren, Erik-Jan; van Doorn, Johnny; Šmíra, Martin; Epskamp, Sacha; Etz, Alexander; Matzke, Dora; de Jong, Tim; van den Bergh, Don; Sarafoglou, Alexandra; Steingroever, Helen; Derks, Koen; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Morey, Richard D

2018-02-01

Bayesian hypothesis testing presents an attractive alternative to p value hypothesis testing. Part I of this series outlined several advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing, including the ability to quantify evidence and the ability to monitor and update this evidence as data come in, without the need to know the intention with which the data were collected. Despite these and other practical advantages, Bayesian hypothesis tests are still reported relatively rarely. An important impediment to the widespread adoption of Bayesian tests is arguably the lack of user-friendly software for the run-of-the-mill statistical problems that confront psychologists for the analysis of almost every experiment: the t-test, ANOVA, correlation, regression, and contingency tables. In Part II of this series we introduce JASP ( http://www.jasp-stats.org ), an open-source, cross-platform, user-friendly graphical software package that allows users to carry out Bayesian hypothesis tests for standard statistical problems. JASP is based in part on the Bayesian analyses implemented in Morey and Rouder's BayesFactor package for R. Armed with JASP, the practical advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing are only a mouse click away.

Applying Bayesian statistics to the study of psychological trauma: A suggestion for future research.

PubMed

Yalch, Matthew M

2016-03-01

Several contemporary researchers have noted the virtues of Bayesian methods of data analysis. Although debates continue about whether conventional or Bayesian statistics is the "better" approach for researchers in general, there are reasons why Bayesian methods may be well suited to the study of psychological trauma in particular. This article describes how Bayesian statistics offers practical solutions to the problems of data non-normality, small sample size, and missing data common in research on psychological trauma. After a discussion of these problems and the effects they have on trauma research, this article explains the basic philosophical and statistical foundations of Bayesian statistics and how it provides solutions to these problems using an applied example. Results of the literature review and the accompanying example indicates the utility of Bayesian statistics in addressing problems common in trauma research. Bayesian statistics provides a set of methodological tools and a broader philosophical framework that is useful for trauma researchers. Methodological resources are also provided so that interested readers can learn more. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis for Unordered Categorical Outcomes with Incomplete Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmid, Christopher H.; Trikalinos, Thomas A.; Olkin, Ingram

2014-01-01

We develop a Bayesian multinomial network meta-analysis model for unordered (nominal) categorical outcomes that allows for partially observed data in which exact event counts may not be known for each category. This model properly accounts for correlations of counts in mutually exclusive categories and enables proper comparison and ranking of…

A Comparison of Imputation Methods for Bayesian Factor Analysis Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merkle, Edgar C.

2011-01-01

Imputation methods are popular for the handling of missing data in psychology. The methods generally consist of predicting missing data based on observed data, yielding a complete data set that is amiable to standard statistical analyses. In the context of Bayesian factor analysis, this article compares imputation under an unrestricted…

Modeling Associations among Multivariate Longitudinal Categorical Variables in Survey Data: A Semiparametric Bayesian Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tchumtchoua, Sylvie; Dey, Dipak K.

2012-01-01

This paper proposes a semiparametric Bayesian framework for the analysis of associations among multivariate longitudinal categorical variables in high-dimensional data settings. This type of data is frequent, especially in the social and behavioral sciences. A semiparametric hierarchical factor analysis model is developed in which the…

Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Cronbach's Coefficient Alpha to Evaluate Informative Hypotheses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Okada, Kensuke

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a new method to evaluate informative hypotheses for meta-analysis of Cronbach's coefficient alpha using a Bayesian approach. The coefficient alpha is one of the most widely used reliability indices. In meta-analyses of reliability, researchers typically form specific informative hypotheses beforehand, such as "alpha of…

Assessment of Matrix Multiplication Learning with a Rule-Based Analytical Model--"A Bayesian Network Representation"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Zhidong

2016-01-01

This study explored an alternative assessment procedure to examine learning trajectories of matrix multiplication. It took rule-based analytical and cognitive task analysis methods specifically to break down operation rules for a given matrix multiplication. Based on the analysis results, a hierarchical Bayesian network, an assessment model,…

Using Discrete Loss Functions and Weighted Kappa for Classification: An Illustration Based on Bayesian Network Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zwick, Rebecca; Lenaburg, Lubella

2009-01-01

In certain data analyses (e.g., multiple discriminant analysis and multinomial log-linear modeling), classification decisions are made based on the estimated posterior probabilities that individuals belong to each of several distinct categories. In the Bayesian network literature, this type of classification is often accomplished by assigning…

Application of Multiple Imputation for Missing Values in Three-Way Three-Mode Multi-Environment Trial Data

PubMed Central

Tian, Ting; McLachlan, Geoffrey J.; Dieters, Mark J.; Basford, Kaye E.

2015-01-01

It is a common occurrence in plant breeding programs to observe missing values in three-way three-mode multi-environment trial (MET) data. We proposed modifications of models for estimating missing observations for these data arrays, and developed a novel approach in terms of hierarchical clustering. Multiple imputation (MI) was used in four ways, multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering, normal distribution model, normal regression model, and predictive mean match. The later three models used both Bayesian analysis and non-Bayesian analysis, while the first approach used a clustering procedure with randomly selected attributes and assigned real values from the nearest neighbour to the one with missing observations. Different proportions of data entries in six complete datasets were randomly selected to be missing and the MI methods were compared based on the efficiency and accuracy of estimating those values. The results indicated that the models using Bayesian analysis had slightly higher accuracy of estimation performance than those using non-Bayesian analysis but they were more time-consuming. However, the novel approach of multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering demonstrated the overall best performances. PMID:26689369

Application of Multiple Imputation for Missing Values in Three-Way Three-Mode Multi-Environment Trial Data.

PubMed

Tian, Ting; McLachlan, Geoffrey J; Dieters, Mark J; Basford, Kaye E

2015-01-01

It is a common occurrence in plant breeding programs to observe missing values in three-way three-mode multi-environment trial (MET) data. We proposed modifications of models for estimating missing observations for these data arrays, and developed a novel approach in terms of hierarchical clustering. Multiple imputation (MI) was used in four ways, multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering, normal distribution model, normal regression model, and predictive mean match. The later three models used both Bayesian analysis and non-Bayesian analysis, while the first approach used a clustering procedure with randomly selected attributes and assigned real values from the nearest neighbour to the one with missing observations. Different proportions of data entries in six complete datasets were randomly selected to be missing and the MI methods were compared based on the efficiency and accuracy of estimating those values. The results indicated that the models using Bayesian analysis had slightly higher accuracy of estimation performance than those using non-Bayesian analysis but they were more time-consuming. However, the novel approach of multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering demonstrated the overall best performances.

Phylogenetic inference under varying proportions of indel-induced alignment gaps

PubMed Central

Dwivedi, Bhakti; Gadagkar, Sudhindra R

2009-01-01

Background The effect of alignment gaps on phylogenetic accuracy has been the subject of numerous studies. In this study, we investigated the relationship between the total number of gapped sites and phylogenetic accuracy, when the gaps were introduced (by means of computer simulation) to reflect indel (insertion/deletion) events during the evolution of DNA sequences. The resulting (true) alignments were subjected to commonly used gap treatment and phylogenetic inference methods. Results (1) In general, there was a strong – almost deterministic – relationship between the amount of gap in the data and the level of phylogenetic accuracy when the alignments were very "gappy", (2) gaps resulting from deletions (as opposed to insertions) contributed more to the inaccuracy of phylogenetic inference, (3) the probabilistic methods (Bayesian, PhyML & "MLε, " a method implemented in DNAML in PHYLIP) performed better at most levels of gap percentage when compared to parsimony (MP) and distance (NJ) methods, with Bayesian analysis being clearly the best, (4) methods that treat gapped sites as missing data yielded less accurate trees when compared to those that attribute phylogenetic signal to the gapped sites (by coding them as binary character data – presence/absence, or as in the MLε method), and (5) in general, the accuracy of phylogenetic inference depended upon the amount of available data when the gaps resulted from mainly deletion events, and the amount of missing data when insertion events were equally likely to have caused the alignment gaps. Conclusion When gaps in an alignment are a consequence of indel events in the evolution of the sequences, the accuracy of phylogenetic analysis is likely to improve if: (1) alignment gaps are categorized as arising from insertion events or deletion events and then treated separately in the analysis, (2) the evolutionary signal provided by indels is harnessed in the phylogenetic analysis, and (3) methods that utilize the phylogenetic signal in indels are developed for distance methods too. When the true homology is known and the amount of gaps is 20 percent of the alignment length or less, the methods used in this study are likely to yield trees with 90–100 percent accuracy. PMID:19698168

Approximate string matching algorithms for limited-vocabulary OCR output correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasko, Thomas A.; Hauser, Susan E.

2000-12-01

Five methods for matching words mistranslated by optical character recognition to their most likely match in a reference dictionary were tested on data from the archives of the National Library of Medicine. The methods, including an adaptation of the cross correlation algorithm, the generic edit distance algorithm, the edit distance algorithm with a probabilistic substitution matrix, Bayesian analysis, and Bayesian analysis on an actively thinned reference dictionary were implemented and their accuracy rates compared. Of the five, the Bayesian algorithm produced the most correct matches (87%), and had the advantage of producing scores that have a useful and practical interpretation.

Bayesian conditional-independence modeling of the AIDS epidemic in England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilks, Walter R.; De Angelis, Daniela; Day, Nicholas E.

We describe the use of conditional-independence modeling, Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo, to model and project the HIV-AIDS epidemic in homosexual/bisexual males in England and Wales. Complexity in this analysis arises through selectively missing data, indirectly observed underlying processes, and measurement error. Our emphasis is on presentation and discussion of the concepts, not on the technicalities of this analysis, which can be found elsewhere [D. De Angelis, W.R. Gilks, N.E. Day, Bayesian projection of the the acquired immune deficiency syndrome epidemic (with discussion), Applied Statistics, in press].

Time-varying nonstationary multivariate risk analysis using a dynamic Bayesian copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, Ali; Burn, Donald H.; Concepción Ausín, María.; Wiper, Michael P.

2016-03-01

A time-varying risk analysis is proposed for an adaptive design framework in nonstationary conditions arising from climate change. A Bayesian, dynamic conditional copula is developed for modeling the time-varying dependence structure between mixed continuous and discrete multiattributes of multidimensional hydrometeorological phenomena. Joint Bayesian inference is carried out to fit the marginals and copula in an illustrative example using an adaptive, Gibbs Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. Posterior mean estimates and credible intervals are provided for the model parameters and the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) is used to select the model that best captures different forms of nonstationarity over time. This study also introduces a fully Bayesian, time-varying joint return period for multivariate time-dependent risk analysis in nonstationary environments. The results demonstrate that the nature and the risk of extreme-climate multidimensional processes are changed over time under the impact of climate change, and accordingly the long-term decision making strategies should be updated based on the anomalies of the nonstationary environment.

Bayesian model reduction and empirical Bayes for group (DCM) studies

PubMed Central

Friston, Karl J.; Litvak, Vladimir; Oswal, Ashwini; Razi, Adeel; Stephan, Klaas E.; van Wijk, Bernadette C.M.; Ziegler, Gabriel; Zeidman, Peter

2016-01-01

This technical note describes some Bayesian procedures for the analysis of group studies that use nonlinear models at the first (within-subject) level – e.g., dynamic causal models – and linear models at subsequent (between-subject) levels. Its focus is on using Bayesian model reduction to finesse the inversion of multiple models of a single dataset or a single (hierarchical or empirical Bayes) model of multiple datasets. These applications of Bayesian model reduction allow one to consider parametric random effects and make inferences about group effects very efficiently (in a few seconds). We provide the relatively straightforward theoretical background to these procedures and illustrate their application using a worked example. This example uses a simulated mismatch negativity study of schizophrenia. We illustrate the robustness of Bayesian model reduction to violations of the (commonly used) Laplace assumption in dynamic causal modelling and show how its recursive application can facilitate both classical and Bayesian inference about group differences. Finally, we consider the application of these empirical Bayesian procedures to classification and prediction. PMID:26569570

A Pragmatic Bayesian Perspective on Correlation Analysis. The exoplanetary gravity - stellar activity case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figueira, P.; Faria, J. P.; Adibekyan, V. Zh.; Oshagh, M.; Santos, N. C.

2016-11-01

We apply the Bayesian framework to assess the presence of a correlation between two quantities. To do so, we estimate the probability distribution of the parameter of interest, ρ, characterizing the strength of the correlation. We provide an implementation of these ideas and concepts using python programming language and the pyMC module in a very short (˜ 130 lines of code, heavily commented) and user-friendly program. We used this tool to assess the presence and properties of the correlation between planetary surface gravity and stellar activity level as measured by the log(R^' }_{ {HK}}) indicator. The results of the Bayesian analysis are qualitatively similar to those obtained via p-value analysis, and support the presence of a correlation in the data. The results are more robust in their derivation and more informative, revealing interesting features such as asymmetric posterior distributions or markedly different credible intervals, and allowing for a deeper exploration. We encourage the reader interested in this kind of problem to apply our code to his/her own scientific problems. The full understanding of what the Bayesian framework is can only be gained through the insight that comes by handling priors, assessing the convergence of Monte Carlo runs, and a multitude of other practical problems. We hope to contribute so that Bayesian analysis becomes a tool in the toolkit of researchers, and they understand by experience its advantages and limitations.

Diversity and Evolutionary Histories of Human Coronaviruses NL63 and 229E Associated with Acute Upper Respiratory Tract Symptoms in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

PubMed

Al-Khannaq, Maryam Nabiel; Ng, Kim Tien; Oong, Xiang Yong; Pang, Yong Kek; Takebe, Yutaka; Chook, Jack Bee; Hanafi, Nik Sherina; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Tee, Kok Keng

2016-05-04

The human alphacoronaviruses HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-229E are commonly associated with upper respiratory tract infections (URTI). Information on their molecular epidemiology and evolutionary dynamics in the tropical region of southeast Asia however is limited. Here, we analyzed the phylogenetic, temporal distribution, population history, and clinical manifestations among patients infected with HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-229E. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from 2,060 consenting adults presented with acute URTI symptoms in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, between 2012 and 2013. The presence of HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-229E was detected using multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The spike glycoprotein, nucleocapsid, and 1a genes were sequenced for phylogenetic reconstruction and Bayesian coalescent inference. A total of 68/2,060 (3.3%) subjects were positive for human alphacoronavirus; HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-229E were detected in 45 (2.2%) and 23 (1.1%) patients, respectively. A peak in the number of HCoV-NL63 infections was recorded between June and October 2012. Phylogenetic inference revealed that 62.8% of HCoV-NL63 infections belonged to genotype B, 37.2% was genotype C, while all HCoV-229E sequences were clustered within group 4. Molecular dating analysis indicated that the origin of HCoV-NL63 was dated to 1921, before it diverged into genotype A (1975), genotype B (1996), and genotype C (2003). The root of the HCoV-229E tree was dated to 1955, before it diverged into groups 1-4 between the 1970s and 1990s. The study described the seasonality, molecular diversity, and evolutionary dynamics of human alphacoronavirus infections in a tropical region. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Recombination and evolution of duplicate control regions in the mitochondrial genome of the Asian big-headed turtle, Platysternon megacephalum.

PubMed

Zheng, Chenfei; Nie, Liuwang; Wang, Jue; Zhou, Huaxing; Hou, Huazhen; Wang, Hao; Liu, Juanjuan

2013-01-01

Complete mitochondrial (mt) genome sequences with duplicate control regions (CRs) have been detected in various animal species. In Testudines, duplicate mtCRs have been reported in the mtDNA of the Asian big-headed turtle, Platysternon megacephalum, which has three living subspecies. However, the evolutionary pattern of these CRs remains unclear. In this study, we report the completed sequences of duplicate CRs from 20 individuals belonging to three subspecies of this turtle and discuss the micro-evolutionary analysis of the evolution of duplicate CRs. Genetic distances calculated with MEGA 4.1 using the complete duplicate CR sequences revealed that within turtle subspecies, genetic distances between orthologous copies from different individuals were 0.63% for CR1 and 1.2% for CR2app:addword:respectively, and the average distance between paralogous copies of CR1 and CR2 was 4.8%. Phylogenetic relationships were reconstructed from the CR sequences, excluding the variable number of tandem repeats (VNTRs) at the 3' end using three methods: neighbor-joining, maximum likelihood algorithm, and Bayesian inference. These data show that any two CRs within individuals were more genetically distant from orthologous genes in different individuals within the same subspecies. This suggests independent evolution of the two mtCRs within each P. megacephalum subspecies. Reconstruction of separate phylogenetic trees using different CR components (TAS, CD, CSB, and VNTRs) suggested the role of recombination in the evolution of duplicate CRs. Consequently, recombination events were detected using RDP software with break points at ≈290 bp and ≈1,080 bp. Based on these results, we hypothesize that duplicate CRs in P. megacephalum originated from heterological ancestral recombination of mtDNA. Subsequent recombination could have resulted in homogenization during independent evolutionary events, thus maintaining the functions of duplicate CRs in the mtDNA of P. megacephalum.

Recombination and Evolution of Duplicate Control Regions in the Mitochondrial Genome of the Asian Big-Headed Turtle, Platysternon megacephalum

PubMed Central

Zheng, Chenfei; Nie, Liuwang; Wang, Jue; Zhou, Huaxing; Hou, Huazhen; Wang, Hao; Liu, Juanjuan

2013-01-01

Complete mitochondrial (mt) genome sequences with duplicate control regions (CRs) have been detected in various animal species. In Testudines, duplicate mtCRs have been reported in the mtDNA of the Asian big-headed turtle, Platysternon megacephalum, which has three living subspecies. However, the evolutionary pattern of these CRs remains unclear. In this study, we report the completed sequences of duplicate CRs from 20 individuals belonging to three subspecies of this turtle and discuss the micro-evolutionary analysis of the evolution of duplicate CRs. Genetic distances calculated with MEGA 4.1 using the complete duplicate CR sequences revealed that within turtle subspecies, genetic distances between orthologous copies from different individuals were 0.63% for CR1 and 1.2% for CR2app:addword:respectively, and the average distance between paralogous copies of CR1 and CR2 was 4.8%. Phylogenetic relationships were reconstructed from the CR sequences, excluding the variable number of tandem repeats (VNTRs) at the 3′ end using three methods: neighbor-joining, maximum likelihood algorithm, and Bayesian inference. These data show that any two CRs within individuals were more genetically distant from orthologous genes in different individuals within the same subspecies. This suggests independent evolution of the two mtCRs within each P. megacephalum subspecies. Reconstruction of separate phylogenetic trees using different CR components (TAS, CD, CSB, and VNTRs) suggested the role of recombination in the evolution of duplicate CRs. Consequently, recombination events were detected using RDP software with break points at ≈290 bp and ≈1,080 bp. Based on these results, we hypothesize that duplicate CRs in P. megacephalum originated from heterological ancestral recombination of mtDNA. Subsequent recombination could have resulted in homogenization during independent evolutionary events, thus maintaining the functions of duplicate CRs in the mtDNA of P. megacephalum. PMID:24367563

The Complete Genome Phylogeny of Geographically Distinct Dengue Virus Serotype 2 Isolates (1944-2013) Supports Further Groupings within the Cosmopolitan Genotype

PubMed Central

Ali, Akhtar; Ali, Ijaz

2015-01-01

Dengue virus serotype 2 (DENV-2) isolates have been implicated in deadly outbreaks of dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in several regions of the world. Phylogenetic analysis of DENV-2 isolates collected from particular countries has been performed using partial or individual genes but only a few studies have examined complete whole-genome sequences collected worldwide. Herein, 50 complete genome sequences of DENV-2 isolates, reported over the past 70 years from 19 different countries, were downloaded from GenBank. Phylogenetic analysis was conducted and evolutionary distances of the 50 DENV-2 isolates were determined using maximum likelihood (ML) trees or Bayesian phylogenetic analysis created from complete genome nucleotide (nt) and amino acid (aa) sequences or individual gene sequences. The results showed that all DENV-2 isolates fell into seven main groups containing five previously defined genotypes. A Cosmopolitan genotype showed further division into three groups (C-I, C-II, and C-III) with the C-I group containing two subgroups (C-IA and C-IB). Comparison of the aa sequences showed specific mutations among the various groups of DENV-2 isolates. A maximum number of aa mutations was observed in the NS5 gene, followed by the NS2A, NS3 and NS1 genes, while the smallest number of aa substitutions was recorded in the capsid gene, followed by the PrM/M, NS4A, and NS4B genes. Maximum evolutionary distances were found in the NS2A gene, followed by the NS4A and NS4B genes. Based on these results, we propose that genotyping of DENV-2 isolates in future studies should be performed on entire genome sequences in order to gain a complete understanding of the evolution of various isolates reported from different geographical locations around the world. PMID:26414178

Evolutionary Roots and Diversification of the Genus Aeromonas.

PubMed

Sanglas, Ariadna; Albarral, Vicenta; Farfán, Maribel; Lorén, J G; Fusté, M C

2017-01-01

Despite the importance of diversification rates in the study of prokaryote evolution, they have not been quantitatively assessed for the majority of microorganism taxa. The investigation of evolutionary patterns in prokaryotes constitutes a challenge due to a very scarce fossil record, limited morphological differentiation and frequently complex taxonomic relationships, which make even species recognition difficult. Although the speciation models and speciation rates in eukaryotes have traditionally been established by analyzing the fossil record data, this is frequently incomplete, and not always available. More recently, several methods based on molecular sequence data have been developed to estimate speciation and extinction rates from phylogenies reconstructed from contemporary taxa. In this work, we determined the divergence time and temporal diversification of the genus Aeromonas by applying these methods widely used with eukaryotic taxa. Our analysis involved 150 Aeromonas strains using the concatenated sequences of two housekeeping genes (approximately 2,000 bp). Dating and diversification model analyses were performed using two different approaches: obtaining the consensus sequence from the concatenated sequences corresponding to all the strains belonging to the same species, or generating the species tree from multiple alignments of each gene. We used BEAST to perform a Bayesian analysis to estimate both the phylogeny and the divergence times. A global molecular clock cannot be assumed for any gene. From the chronograms obtained, we carried out a diversification analysis using several approaches. The results suggest that the genus Aeromonas began to diverge approximately 250 millions of years (Ma) ago. All methods used to determine Aeromonas diversification gave similar results, suggesting that the speciation process in this bacterial genus followed a rate-constant (Yule) diversification model, although there is a small probability that a slight deceleration occurred in recent times. We also determined the constant of diversification (λ) values, which in all cases were very similar, about 0.01 species/Ma, a value clearly lower than those described for different eukaryotes.

Evolutionary Roots and Diversification of the Genus Aeromonas

PubMed Central

Sanglas, Ariadna; Albarral, Vicenta; Farfán, Maribel; Lorén, J. G.; Fusté, M. C.

2017-01-01

Despite the importance of diversification rates in the study of prokaryote evolution, they have not been quantitatively assessed for the majority of microorganism taxa. The investigation of evolutionary patterns in prokaryotes constitutes a challenge due to a very scarce fossil record, limited morphological differentiation and frequently complex taxonomic relationships, which make even species recognition difficult. Although the speciation models and speciation rates in eukaryotes have traditionally been established by analyzing the fossil record data, this is frequently incomplete, and not always available. More recently, several methods based on molecular sequence data have been developed to estimate speciation and extinction rates from phylogenies reconstructed from contemporary taxa. In this work, we determined the divergence time and temporal diversification of the genus Aeromonas by applying these methods widely used with eukaryotic taxa. Our analysis involved 150 Aeromonas strains using the concatenated sequences of two housekeeping genes (approximately 2,000 bp). Dating and diversification model analyses were performed using two different approaches: obtaining the consensus sequence from the concatenated sequences corresponding to all the strains belonging to the same species, or generating the species tree from multiple alignments of each gene. We used BEAST to perform a Bayesian analysis to estimate both the phylogeny and the divergence times. A global molecular clock cannot be assumed for any gene. From the chronograms obtained, we carried out a diversification analysis using several approaches. The results suggest that the genus Aeromonas began to diverge approximately 250 millions of years (Ma) ago. All methods used to determine Aeromonas diversification gave similar results, suggesting that the speciation process in this bacterial genus followed a rate-constant (Yule) diversification model, although there is a small probability that a slight deceleration occurred in recent times. We also determined the constant of diversification (λ) values, which in all cases were very similar, about 0.01 species/Ma, a value clearly lower than those described for different eukaryotes. PMID:28228750

Bayesian analysis of time-series data under case-crossover designs: posterior equivalence and inference.

PubMed

Li, Shi; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Batterman, Stuart; Ghosh, Malay

2013-12-01

Case-crossover designs are widely used to study short-term exposure effects on the risk of acute adverse health events. While the frequentist literature on this topic is vast, there is no Bayesian work in this general area. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, the paper establishes Bayesian equivalence results that require characterization of the set of priors under which the posterior distributions of the risk ratio parameters based on a case-crossover and time-series analysis are identical. Second, the paper studies inferential issues under case-crossover designs in a Bayesian framework. Traditionally, a conditional logistic regression is used for inference on risk-ratio parameters in case-crossover studies. We consider instead a more general full likelihood-based approach which makes less restrictive assumptions on the risk functions. Formulation of a full likelihood leads to growth in the number of parameters proportional to the sample size. We propose a semi-parametric Bayesian approach using a Dirichlet process prior to handle the random nuisance parameters that appear in a full likelihood formulation. We carry out a simulation study to compare the Bayesian methods based on full and conditional likelihood with the standard frequentist approaches for case-crossover and time-series analysis. The proposed methods are illustrated through the Detroit Asthma Morbidity, Air Quality and Traffic study, which examines the association between acute asthma risk and ambient air pollutant concentrations. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Molecular phylogenetics reveals convergent evolution in lower Congo River spiny eels.

PubMed

Alter, S Elizabeth; Brown, Bianca; Stiassny, Melanie L J

2015-10-15

The lower Congo River (LCR) is a region of exceptional species diversity and endemism in the Congo basin, including numerous species of spiny eels (genus Mastacembelus). Four of these exhibit distinctive phenotypes characterized by greatly reduced optic globes deeply embedded into the head (cryptophthalmia) and reduced (or absent) melanin pigmentation, among other characteristics. A strikingly similar cryptophthalmic phenotype is also found in members of a number of unrelated fish families, strongly suggesting the possibility of convergent evolution. However, little is known about the evolutionary processes that shaped diversification in LCR Mastacembelus, their biogeographic origins, or when colonization of the LCR occurred. We sequenced mitochondrial and nuclear genes from Mastacembelus species collected in the lower Congo River, and compared them with other African species and Asian representatives as outgroups. We analyzed the sequence data using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic inference. Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic analyses, and Bayesian coalescent methods for species tree reconstruction, reveal that endemic LCR spiny eels derive from two independent origins, clearly demonstrating convergent evolution of the cryptophthalmic phenotype. Mastacembelus crassus, M. aviceps, and M. simbi form a clade, allied to species found in southern, eastern and central Africa. Unexpectedly, M. brichardi and brachyrhinus fall within a clade otherwise endemic to Lake Tanganikya (LT) ca. 1500 km east of the LCR. Divergence dating suggests the ages of these two clades of LCR endemics differ markedly. The age of the crassus group is estimated at ~4 Myr while colonization of the LCR by the brichardi-brachyrhinus progenitor was considerably more recent, dated at ~0.5 Myr. The phylogenetic framework of spiny eels presented here, the first to include LCR species, demonstrates that cryptophthalmia and associated traits evolved at least twice in Mastacembelus: once in M. brichardi and at least once in the M. crassus clade. Timing of diversification is broadly consistent with the onset of modern high-energy flow conditions in the LCR and with previous studies of endemic cichlids. The close genetic relationship between M. brichardi and M. brachyrhinus is particularly notable given the extreme difference in phenotype between these species, and additional work is needed to better understand the evolutionary history of diversification in this clade. The findings presented here demonstrate strong, multi-trait convergence in LCR spiny eels, suggesting that extreme selective pressures have shaped numerous phenotypic attributes of the endemic species of this region.

When new human-modified habitats favour the expansion of an amphibian pioneer species: Evolutionary history of the natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) in a coal basin.

PubMed

Faucher, Leslie; Hénocq, Laura; Vanappelghem, Cédric; Rondel, Stéphanie; Quevillart, Robin; Gallina, Sophie; Godé, Cécile; Jaquiéry, Julie; Arnaud, Jean-François

2017-09-01

Human activities affect microevolutionary dynamics by inducing environmental changes. In particular, land cover conversion and loss of native habitats decrease genetic diversity and jeopardize the adaptive ability of populations. Nonetheless, new anthropogenic habitats can also promote the successful establishment of emblematic pioneer species. We investigated this issue by examining the population genetic features and evolutionary history of the natterjack toad (Bufo [Epidalea] calamita) in northern France, where populations can be found in native coastal habitats and coalfield habitats shaped by European industrial history, along with an additional set of European populations located outside this focal area. We predicted contrasting patterns of genetic structure, with newly settled coalfield populations departing from migration-drift equilibrium. As expected, coalfield populations showed a mosaic of genetically divergent populations with short-range patterns of gene flow, and native coastal populations indicated an equilibrium state with an isolation-by-distance pattern suggestive of postglacial range expansion. However, coalfield populations exhibited (i) high levels of genetic diversity, (ii) no evidence of local inbreeding or reduced effective population size and (iii) multiple maternal mitochondrial lineages, a genetic footprint depicting independent colonization events. Furthermore, approximate Bayesian computations suggested several evolutionary trajectories from ancient isolation in glacial refugia during the Pleistocene, with biogeographical signatures of recent expansion probably confounded by human-mediated mixing of different lineages. From an evolutionary and conservation perspective, this study highlights the ecological value of industrial areas, provided that ongoing regional gene flow is ensured within the existing lineage boundaries. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Bayesian approach to reporting GSR analysis results: some first-hand experiences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charles, Sebastien; Nys, Bart

2010-06-01

The use of Bayesian principles in the reporting of forensic findings has been a matter of interest for some years. Recently, also the GSR community is gradually exploring the advantages of this method, or rather approach, for writing reports. Since last year, our GSR group is adapting reporting procedures to the use of Bayesian principles. The police and magistrates find the reports more directly accessible and useful in their part of the criminal investigation. In the lab we find that, through applying the Bayesian principles, unnecessary analyses can be eliminated and thus time can be freed on the instruments.

Bayesian Analysis of Multidimensional Item Response Theory Models: A Discussion and Illustration of Three Response Style Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leventhal, Brian C.; Stone, Clement A.

2018-01-01

Interest in Bayesian analysis of item response theory (IRT) models has grown tremendously due to the appeal of the paradigm among psychometricians, advantages of these methods when analyzing complex models, and availability of general-purpose software. Possible models include models which reflect multidimensionality due to designed test structure,…

Symptoms of Depression and Challenging Behaviours in People with Intellectual Disability: A Bayesian Analysis. Brief Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tsiouris, John; Mann, Rachel; Patti, Paul; Sturmey, Peter

2004-01-01

Clinicians need to know the likelihood of a condition given a positive or negative diagnostic test. In this study a Bayesian analysis of the Clinical Behavior Checklist for Persons with Intellectual Disabilities (CBCPID) to predict depression in people with intellectual disability was conducted. The CBCPID was administered to 92 adults with…

Bayesian analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects for patient-centered outcomes research.

PubMed

Henderson, Nicholas C; Louis, Thomas A; Wang, Chenguang; Varadhan, Ravi

2016-01-01

Evaluation of heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE) is an essential aspect of personalized medicine and patient-centered outcomes research. Our goal in this article is to promote the use of Bayesian methods for subgroup analysis and to lower the barriers to their implementation by describing the ways in which the companion software beanz can facilitate these types of analyses. To advance this goal, we describe several key Bayesian models for investigating HTE and outline the ways in which they are well-suited to address many of the commonly cited challenges in the study of HTE. Topics highlighted include shrinkage estimation, model choice, sensitivity analysis, and posterior predictive checking. A case study is presented in which we demonstrate the use of the methods discussed.

Enhancements of Bayesian Blocks; Application to Large Light Curve Databases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scargle, Jeff

2015-01-01

Bayesian Blocks are optimal piecewise linear representations (step function fits) of light-curves. The simple algorithm implementing this idea, using dynamic programming, has been extended to include more data modes and fitness metrics, multivariate analysis, and data on the circle (Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. VI. Bayesian Block Representations, Scargle, Norris, Jackson and Chiang 2013, ApJ, 764, 167), as well as new results on background subtraction and refinement of the procedure for precise timing of transient events in sparse data. Example demonstrations will include exploratory analysis of the Kepler light curve archive in a search for "star-tickling" signals from extraterrestrial civilizations. (The Cepheid Galactic Internet, Learned, Kudritzki, Pakvasa1, and Zee, 2008, arXiv: 0809.0339; Walkowicz et al., in progress).

Horizontal gene transfer in silkworm, Bombyx mori.

PubMed

Zhu, Bo; Lou, Miao-Miao; Xie, Guan-Lin; Zhang, Guo-Qing; Zhou, Xue-Ping; Li, Bin; Jin, Gu-Lei

2011-05-19

The domesticated silkworm, Bombyx mori, is the model insect for the order Lepidoptera, has economically important values, and has gained some representative behavioral characteristics compared to its wild ancestor. The genome of B. mori has been fully sequenced while function analysis of BmChi-h and BmSuc1 genes revealed that horizontal gene transfer (HGT) maybe bestow a clear selective advantage to B. mori. However, the role of HGT in the evolutionary history of B. mori is largely unexplored. In this study, we compare the whole genome of B. mori with those of 382 prokaryotic and eukaryotic species to investigate the potential HGTs. Ten candidate HGT events were defined in B. mori by comprehensive sequence analysis using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian method combining with EST checking. Phylogenetic analysis of the candidate HGT genes suggested that one HGT was plant-to- B. mori transfer while nine were bacteria-to- B. mori transfer. Furthermore, functional analysis based on expression, coexpression and related literature searching revealed that several HGT candidate genes have added important characters, such as resistance to pathogen, to B. mori. Results from this study clearly demonstrated that HGTs play an important role in the evolution of B. mori although the number of HGT events in B. mori is in general smaller than those of microbes and other insects. In particular, interdomain HGTs in B. mori may give rise to functional, persistent, and possibly evolutionarily significant new genes.

Estimating size and scope economies in the Portuguese water sector using the Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis.

PubMed

Carvalho, Pedro; Marques, Rui Cunha

2016-02-15

This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the Portuguese water sector applying Bayesian and classical statistics to make inference in stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). This study proves the usefulness and advantages of the application of Bayesian statistics for making inference in SFA over traditional SFA which just uses classical statistics. The resulting Bayesian methods allow overcoming some problems that arise in the application of the traditional SFA, such as the bias in small samples and skewness of residuals. In the present case study of the water sector in Portugal, these Bayesian methods provide more plausible and acceptable results. Based on the results obtained we found that there are important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope in the Portuguese water sector, pointing out to the huge advantages in undertaking mergers by joining the retail and wholesale components and by joining the drinking water and wastewater services. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Efficient Bayesian hierarchical functional data analysis with basis function approximations using Gaussian-Wishart processes.

PubMed

Yang, Jingjing; Cox, Dennis D; Lee, Jong Soo; Ren, Peng; Choi, Taeryon

2017-12-01

Functional data are defined as realizations of random functions (mostly smooth functions) varying over a continuum, which are usually collected on discretized grids with measurement errors. In order to accurately smooth noisy functional observations and deal with the issue of high-dimensional observation grids, we propose a novel Bayesian method based on the Bayesian hierarchical model with a Gaussian-Wishart process prior and basis function representations. We first derive an induced model for the basis-function coefficients of the functional data, and then use this model to conduct posterior inference through Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Compared to the standard Bayesian inference that suffers serious computational burden and instability in analyzing high-dimensional functional data, our method greatly improves the computational scalability and stability, while inheriting the advantage of simultaneously smoothing raw observations and estimating the mean-covariance functions in a nonparametric way. In addition, our method can naturally handle functional data observed on random or uncommon grids. Simulation and real studies demonstrate that our method produces similar results to those obtainable by the standard Bayesian inference with low-dimensional common grids, while efficiently smoothing and estimating functional data with random and high-dimensional observation grids when the standard Bayesian inference fails. In conclusion, our method can efficiently smooth and estimate high-dimensional functional data, providing one way to resolve the curse of dimensionality for Bayesian functional data analysis with Gaussian-Wishart processes. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Phylogenetic relationships, diversification and expansion of chili peppers (Capsicum, Solanaceae)

PubMed Central

Carrizo García, Carolina; Barfuss, Michael H. J.; Sehr, Eva M.; Barboza, Gloria E.; Samuel, Rosabelle; Moscone, Eduardo A.; Ehrendorfer, Friedrich

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Capsicum (Solanaceae), native to the tropical and temperate Americas, comprises the well-known sweet and hot chili peppers and several wild species. So far, only partial taxonomic and phylogenetic analyses have been done for the genus. Here, the phylogenetic relationships between nearly all taxa of Capsicum were explored to test the monophyly of the genus and to obtain a better knowledge of species relationships, diversification and expansion. Methods Thirty-four of approximately 35 Capsicum species were sampled. Maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference analyses were performed using two plastid markers (matK and psbA-trnH) and one single-copy nuclear gene (waxy). The evolutionary changes of nine key features were reconstructed following the parsimony ancestral states method. Ancestral areas were reconstructed through a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis. Key Results Capsicum forms a monophyletic clade, with Lycianthes as a sister group, following both phylogenetic approaches. Eleven well-supported clades (four of them monotypic) can be recognized within Capsicum, although some interspecific relationships need further analysis. A few features are useful to characterize different clades (e.g. fruit anatomy, chromosome base number), whereas some others are highly homoplastic (e.g. seed colour). The origin of Capsicum is postulated in an area along the Andes of western to north-western South America. The expansion of the genus has followed a clockwise direction around the Amazon basin, towards central and south-eastern Brazil, then back to western South America, and finally northwards to Central America. Conclusions New insights are provided regarding interspecific relationships, character evolution, and geographical origin and expansion of Capsicum. A clearly distinct early-diverging clade can be distinguished, centred in western–north-western South America. Subsequent rapid speciation has led to the origin of the remaining clades. The diversification of Capsicum has culminated in the origin of the main cultivated species in several regions of South to Central America. PMID:27245634

Bayesian Group Bridge for Bi-level Variable Selection.

PubMed

Mallick, Himel; Yi, Nengjun

2017-06-01

A Bayesian bi-level variable selection method (BAGB: Bayesian Analysis of Group Bridge) is developed for regularized regression and classification. This new development is motivated by grouped data, where generic variables can be divided into multiple groups, with variables in the same group being mechanistically related or statistically correlated. As an alternative to frequentist group variable selection methods, BAGB incorporates structural information among predictors through a group-wise shrinkage prior. Posterior computation proceeds via an efficient MCMC algorithm. In addition to the usual ease-of-interpretation of hierarchical linear models, the Bayesian formulation produces valid standard errors, a feature that is notably absent in the frequentist framework. Empirical evidence of the attractiveness of the method is illustrated by extensive Monte Carlo simulations and real data analysis. Finally, several extensions of this new approach are presented, providing a unified framework for bi-level variable selection in general models with flexible penalties.

Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jesus, J. F.; Valentim, R.; Andrade-Oliveira, F.

2017-09-01

Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3αH0 model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

Alveolar ridge preservation after tooth extraction: a Bayesian Network meta-analysis of grafting materials efficacy on prevention of bone height and width reduction.

PubMed

Iocca, Oreste; Farcomeni, Alessio; Pardiñas Lopez, Simon; Talib, Huzefa S

2017-01-01

To conduct a traditional meta-analysis and a Bayesian Network meta-analysis to synthesize the information coming from randomized controlled trials on different socket grafting materials and combine the resulting indirect evidence in order to make inferences on treatments that have not been compared directly. RCTs were identified for inclusion in the systematic review and subsequent statistical analysis. Bone height and width remodelling were selected as the chosen summary measures for comparison. First, a series of pairwise meta-analyses were performed and overall mean difference (MD) in mm with 95% CI was calculated between grafted versus non-grafted sockets. Then, a Bayesian Network meta-analysis was performed to draw indirect conclusions on which grafting materials can be considered most likely the best compared to the others. From the six included studies, seven comparisons were obtained. Traditional meta-analysis showed statistically significant results in favour of grafting the socket compared to no-graft both for height (MD 1.02, 95% CI 0.44-1.59, p value < 0.001) than for width (MD 1.52 95% CI 1.18-1.86, p value <0.000001) remodelling. Bayesian Network meta-analysis allowed to obtain a rank of intervention efficacy. On the basis of the results of the present analysis, socket grafting seems to be more favourable than unassisted socket healing. Moreover, Bayesian Network meta-analysis indicates that freeze-dried bone graft plus membrane is the most likely effective in the reduction of bone height remodelling. Autologous bone marrow resulted the most likely effective when width remodelling was considered. Studies with larger samples and less risk of bias should be conducted in the future in order to further strengthen the results of this analysis. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Divergent trait and environment relationships among parallel radiations in Pelargonium (Geraniaceae): a role for evolutionary legacy?

PubMed

Moore, Timothy E; Schlichting, Carl D; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Mocko, Kerri; Jones, Cynthia S

2018-05-11

Functional traits in closely related lineages are expected to vary similarly along common environmental gradients as a result of shared evolutionary and biogeographic history, or legacy effects, and as a result of biophysical tradeoffs in construction. We test these predictions in Pelargonium, a relatively recent evolutionary radiation. Bayesian phylogenetic mixed effects models assessed, at the subclade level, associations between plant height, leaf area, leaf nitrogen content and leaf mass per area (LMA), and five environmental variables capturing temperature and rainfall gradients across the Greater Cape Floristic Region of South Africa. Trait-trait integration was assessed via pairwise correlations within subclades. Of 20 trait-environment associations, 17 differed among subclades. Signs of regression coefficients diverged for height, leaf area and leaf nitrogen content, but not for LMA. Subclades also differed in trait-trait relationships and these differences were modulated by rainfall seasonality. Leave-one-out cross-validation revealed that whether trait variation was better predicted by environmental predictors or trait-trait integration depended on the clade and trait in question. Legacy signals in trait-environment and trait-trait relationships were apparently lost during the earliest diversification of Pelargonium, but then retained during subsequent subclade evolution. Overall, we demonstrate that global-scale patterns are poor predictors of patterns of trait variation at finer geographic and taxonomic scales. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

The impact of calibration and clock-model choice on molecular estimates of divergence times.

PubMed

Duchêne, Sebastián; Lanfear, Robert; Ho, Simon Y W

2014-09-01

Phylogenetic estimates of evolutionary timescales can be obtained from nucleotide sequence data using the molecular clock. These estimates are important for our understanding of evolutionary processes across all taxonomic levels. The molecular clock needs to be calibrated with an independent source of information, such as fossil evidence, to allow absolute ages to be inferred. Calibration typically involves fixing or constraining the age of at least one node in the phylogeny, enabling the ages of the remaining nodes to be estimated. We conducted an extensive simulation study to investigate the effects of the position and number of calibrations on the resulting estimate of the timescale. Our analyses focused on Bayesian estimates obtained using relaxed molecular clocks. Our findings suggest that an effective strategy is to include multiple calibrations and to prefer those that are close to the root of the phylogeny. Under these conditions, we found that evolutionary timescales could be estimated accurately even when the relaxed-clock model was misspecified and when the sequence data were relatively uninformative. We tested these findings in a case study of simian foamy virus, where we found that shallow calibrations caused the overall timescale to be underestimated by up to three orders of magnitude. Finally, we provide some recommendations for improving the practice of molecular-clock calibration. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary dynamics and genetic diversity from three genes of Anguillid rhabdovirus.

PubMed

Bellec, Laure; Cabon, Joelle; Bergmann, Sven; de Boisséson, Claire; Engelsma, Marc; Haenen, Olga; Morin, Thierry; Olesen, Niels Jørgen; Schuetze, Heike; Toffan, Anna; Way, Keith; Bigarré, Laurent

2014-11-01

Wild freshwater eel populations have dramatically declined in recent past decades in Europe and America, partially through the impact of several factors including the wide spread of infectious diseases. The anguillid rhabdoviruses eel virus European X (EVEX) and eel virus American (EVA) potentially play a role in this decline, even if their real contribution is still unclear. In this study, we investigate the evolutionary dynamics and genetic diversity of anguiillid rhabdoviruses by analysing sequences from the glycoprotein, nucleoprotein and phosphoprotein (P) genes of 57 viral strains collected from seven countries over 40 years using maximum-likelihood and Bayesian approaches. Phylogenetic trees from the three genes are congruent and allow two monophyletic groups, European and American, to be clearly distinguished. Results of nucleotide substitution rates per site per year indicate that the P gene is expected to evolve most rapidly. The nucleotide diversity observed is low (2-3 %) for the three genes, with a significantly higher variability within the P gene, which encodes multiple proteins from a single genomic RNA sequence, particularly a small C protein. This putative C protein is a potential molecular marker suitable for characterization of distinct genotypes within anguillid rhabdoviruses. This study provides, to our knowledge, the first molecular characterization of EVA, brings new insights to the evolutionary dynamics of two genotypes of Anguillid rhabdovirus, and is a baseline for further investigations on the tracking of its spread.

Coevolution between flight morphology, vertical stratification and sexual dimorphism: what can we learn from tropical butterflies?

PubMed

Graça, M B; Pequeno, P A C L; Franklin, E; Morais, J W

2017-10-01

Occurrence patterns are partly shaped by the affinity of species with habitat conditions. For winged organisms, flight-related attributes are vital for ecological performance. However, due to the different reproductive roles of each sex, we expect divergence in flight energy budget, and consequently different selection responses between sexes. We used tropical frugivorous butterflies as models to investigate coevolution between flight morphology, sex dimorphism and vertical stratification. We studied 94 species of Amazonian fruit-feeding butterflies sampled in seven sites across 3341 ha. We used wing-thorax ratio as a proxy for flight capacity and hierarchical Bayesian modelling to estimate stratum preference. We detected a strong phylogenetic signal in wing-thorax ratio in both sexes. Stouter fast-flying species preferred the canopy, whereas more slender slow-flying species preferred the understorey. However, this relationship was stronger in females than in males, suggesting that female phenotype associates more intimately with habitat conditions. Within species, males were stouter than females and sexual dimorphism was sharper in understorey species. Because trait-habitat relationships were independent from phylogeny, the matching between flight morphology and stratum preference is more likely to reflect adaptive radiation than shared ancestry. This study sheds light on the impact of flight and sexual dimorphism on the evolution and ecological adaptation of flying organisms. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Multi-locus phylogeny and divergence time estimates of Enallagma damselflies (Odonata: Coenagrionidae).

PubMed

Callahan, Melissa S; McPeek, Mark A

2016-01-01

Reconstructing evolutionary patterns of species and populations provides a framework for asking questions about the impacts of climate change. Here we use a multilocus dataset to estimate gene trees under maximum likelihood and Bayesian models to obtain a robust estimate of relationships for a genus of North American damselflies, Enallagma. Using a relaxed molecular clock, we estimate the divergence times for this group. Furthermore, to account for the fact that gene tree analyses can overestimate ages of population divergences, we use a multi-population coalescent model to gain a more accurate estimate of divergence times. We also infer diversification rates using a method that allows for variation in diversification rate through time and among lineages. Our results reveal a complex evolutionary history of Enallagma, in which divergence events both predate and occur during Pleistocene climate fluctuations. There is also evidence of diversification rate heterogeneity across the tree. These divergence time estimates provide a foundation for addressing the relative significance of historical climatic events in the diversification of this genus. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The genetic diversity and evolutionary history of hepatitis C virus in Vietnam

PubMed Central

Li, Chunhua; Yuan, Manqiong; Lu, Ling; Lu, Teng; Xia, Wenjie; Pham, Van H.; Vo, An X.D.; Nguyen, Mindie H.; Abe, Kenji

2014-01-01

Vietnam has a unique history in association with foreign countries, which may have resulted in multiple introductions of the alien HCV strains to mix with those indigenous ones. In this study, we characterized the HCV sequences in Core-E1 and NS5B regions from 236 Vietnamese individuals. We identified multiple HCV lineages; 6a, 6e, 6h, 6k, 6l, 6o, 6p, and two novel variants may represent the indigenous strains; 1a was probably introduced from the US; 1b and 2a possibly originated in East Asia; while 2i, 2j, and 2m were likely brought by French explorers. We inferred the evolutionary history for four major subtypes: 1a, 1b, 6a, and 6e. The obtained Bayesian Skyline Plots (BSPs) consistently showed the rapid HCV population growth from 1955-1963 until 1984 or after, corresponding to the era of the Vietnam War. We also estimated HCV growth rates and reconstructed phylogeographic trees for comparing subtypes 1a, 1b, and HCV-2. PMID:25193655

Phylogeography of Arenaria balearica L. (Caryophyllaceae): evolutionary history of a disjunct endemic from the Western Mediterranean continental islands.

PubMed

Bobo-Pinilla, Javier; Barrios de León, Sara B; Seguí Colomar, Jaume; Fenu, Giuseppe; Bacchetta, Gianluigi; Peñas de Giles, Julio; Martínez-Ortega, María Montserrat

2016-01-01

Although it has been traditionally accepted that Arenaria balearica (Caryophyllaceae) could be a relict Tertiary plant species, this has never been experimentally tested. Nor have the palaeohistorical reasons underlying the highly fragmented distribution of the species in the Western Mediterranean region been investigated. We have analysed AFLP data (213) and plastid DNA sequences (226) from a total of 250 plants from 29 populations sampled throughout the entire distribution range of the species in Majorca, Corsica, Sardinia, and the Tuscan Archipelago. The AFLP data analyses indicate very low geographic structure and population differentiation. Based on plastid DNA data, six alternative phylogeographic hypotheses were tested using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). These analyses revealed ancient area fragmentation as the most probable scenario, which is in accordance with the star-like topology of the parsimony network that suggests a pattern of long term survival and subsequent in situ differentiation. Overall low levels of genetic diversity and plastid DNA variation were found, reflecting evolutionary stasis of a species preserved in locally long-term stable habitats.

The tale of a modern animal plague: Tracing the evolutionary history and determining the time-scale for foot and mouth disease virus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tully, Damien C.; Fares, Mario A.

2008-12-20

Despite significant advances made in the understanding of its epidemiology, foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) is among the most unexpected agricultural devastating plagues. While the disease manifests itself as seven immunologically distinct strains their origin, population dynamics, migration patterns and divergence times remain unknown. Herein we have assembled a comprehensive data set of gene sequences representing the global diversity of the disease and inferred the time-scale and evolutionary history for FMDV. Serotype-specific rates of evolution and divergence times were estimated using a Bayesian coalescent framework. We report that an ancient precursor FMDV gave rise to two major diversification eventsmore » spanning a relatively short interval of time. This radiation event is estimated to have taken place towards the end of the 17th and the beginning of the 18th century giving us the present circulating Euro-Asiatic and South African viral strains. Furthermore our results hint that Europe acted as a possible hub for the disease from where it successfully dispersed elsewhere via exploration and trading routes.« less

Population genetic structure and conservation genetics of threatened Okaloosa darters (Etheostoma okaloosae).

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, James D.; Jelks, Howard L.; Tate, Bill; Johnson, Aria R.; Jordan, Frank

2011-01-01

Imperiled Okaloosa darters (Etheostoma okaloosae) are small, benthic fish limited to six streams that flow into three bayous of Choctawhatchee Bay in northwest Florida, USA. We analyzed the complete mitochondrial cytochrome b gene and 10 nuclear microsatellite loci for 255 and 273 Okaloosa darters, respectively. Bayesian clustering analyses and AMOVA reflect congruent population genetic structure in both mitochondrial and microsatellite DNA. This structure reveals historical isolation of Okaloosa darter streams nested within bayous. Most of the six streams appear to have exchanged migrants though they remain genetically distinct. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recently reclassified Okaloosa darters from endangered to threatened status. Our genetic data support the reclassification of Okaloosa darter Evolutionary Significant Units (ESUs) in the larger Tom's, Turkey, and Rocky creeks from endangered to threatened status. However, the three smaller drainages (Mill, Swift, and Turkey Bolton creeks) remain at risk due to their small population sizes and anthropogenic pressures on remaining habitat. Natural resource managers now have the evolutionary information to guide recovery actions within and among drainages throughout the range of the Okaloosa darter.

A Bayesian Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial Comparing Antimetabolite Therapies for Non-Infectious Uveitis.

PubMed

Browne, Erica N; Rathinam, Sivakumar R; Kanakath, Anuradha; Thundikandy, Radhika; Babu, Manohar; Lietman, Thomas M; Acharya, Nisha R

2017-02-01

To conduct a Bayesian analysis of a randomized clinical trial (RCT) for non-infectious uveitis using expert opinion as a subjective prior belief. A RCT was conducted to determine which antimetabolite, methotrexate or mycophenolate mofetil, is more effective as an initial corticosteroid-sparing agent for the treatment of intermediate, posterior, and pan-uveitis. Before the release of trial results, expert opinion on the relative effectiveness of these two medications was collected via online survey. Members of the American Uveitis Society executive committee were invited to provide an estimate for the relative decrease in efficacy with a 95% credible interval (CrI). A prior probability distribution was created from experts' estimates. A Bayesian analysis was performed using the constructed expert prior probability distribution and the trial's primary outcome. A total of 11 of the 12 invited uveitis specialists provided estimates. Eight of 11 experts (73%) believed mycophenolate mofetil is more effective. The group prior belief was that the odds of treatment success for patients taking mycophenolate mofetil were 1.4-fold the odds of those taking methotrexate (95% CrI 0.03-45.0). The odds of treatment success with mycophenolate mofetil compared to methotrexate was 0.4 from the RCT (95% confidence interval 0.1-1.2) and 0.7 (95% CrI 0.2-1.7) from the Bayesian analysis. A Bayesian analysis combining expert belief with the trial's result did not indicate preference for one drug. However, the wide credible interval leaves open the possibility of a substantial treatment effect. This suggests clinical equipoise necessary to allow a larger, more definitive RCT.

Dating the origin and dispersal of Human Papillomavirus type 16 on the basis of ancestral human migrations.

PubMed

Zehender, Gianguglielmo; Frati, Elena Rosanna; Martinelli, Marianna; Bianchi, Silvia; Amendola, Antonella; Ebranati, Erika; Ciccozzi, Massimo; Galli, Massimo; Lai, Alessia; Tanzi, Elisabetta

2016-04-01

A major limitation when reconstructing the origin and evolution of HPV-16 is the lack of reliable substitution rate estimates for the viral genes. On the basis of the hypothesis of human HPV-16 co-divergence, we estimated a mean evolutionary rate of 1.47×10(-7) (95% HPD=0.64-2.47×10(-7)) subs/site/year for the viral LCR region. The results of a Bayesian phylogeographical analysis suggest that the currently circulating HPV-16 most probably originated in Africa about 110 thousand years ago (Kya), before giving rise to four known geographical lineages: the Asian/European lineage, which most probably originated in Asia a mean 38 Kya, and the Asian/American and two African lineages, which probably respectively originated about 33 and 27 Kya. These data closely reflect current hypotheses concerning modern human expansion based on studies of mitochondrial DNA phylogeny. The correlation between ancient human migration and the present HPV phylogeny may be explained by the co-existence of modes of transmission other than sexual transmission. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Bayesian Correlation Analysis for Sequence Count Data

PubMed Central

Lau, Nelson; Perkins, Theodore J.

2016-01-01

Evaluating the similarity of different measured variables is a fundamental task of statistics, and a key part of many bioinformatics algorithms. Here we propose a Bayesian scheme for estimating the correlation between different entities’ measurements based on high-throughput sequencing data. These entities could be different genes or miRNAs whose expression is measured by RNA-seq, different transcription factors or histone marks whose expression is measured by ChIP-seq, or even combinations of different types of entities. Our Bayesian formulation accounts for both measured signal levels and uncertainty in those levels, due to varying sequencing depth in different experiments and to varying absolute levels of individual entities, both of which affect the precision of the measurements. In comparison with a traditional Pearson correlation analysis, we show that our Bayesian correlation analysis retains high correlations when measurement confidence is high, but suppresses correlations when measurement confidence is low—especially for entities with low signal levels. In addition, we consider the influence of priors on the Bayesian correlation estimate. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that naive, uniform priors on entities’ signal levels can lead to highly biased correlation estimates, particularly when different experiments have widely varying sequencing depths. However, we propose two alternative priors that provably mitigate this problem. We also prove that, like traditional Pearson correlation, our Bayesian correlation calculation constitutes a kernel in the machine learning sense, and thus can be used as a similarity measure in any kernel-based machine learning algorithm. We demonstrate our approach on two RNA-seq datasets and one miRNA-seq dataset. PMID:27701449

Online Variational Bayesian Filtering-Based Mobile Target Tracking in Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Zhou, Bingpeng; Chen, Qingchun; Li, Tiffany Jing; Xiao, Pei

2014-01-01

The received signal strength (RSS)-based online tracking for a mobile node in wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is investigated in this paper. Firstly, a multi-layer dynamic Bayesian network (MDBN) is introduced to characterize the target mobility with either directional or undirected movement. In particular, it is proposed to employ the Wishart distribution to approximate the time-varying RSS measurement precision's randomness due to the target movement. It is shown that the proposed MDBN offers a more general analysis model via incorporating the underlying statistical information of both the target movement and observations, which can be utilized to improve the online tracking capability by exploiting the Bayesian statistics. Secondly, based on the MDBN model, a mean-field variational Bayesian filtering (VBF) algorithm is developed to realize the online tracking of a mobile target in the presence of nonlinear observations and time-varying RSS precision, wherein the traditional Bayesian filtering scheme cannot be directly employed. Thirdly, a joint optimization between the real-time velocity and its prior expectation is proposed to enable online velocity tracking in the proposed online tacking scheme. Finally, the associated Bayesian Cramer–Rao Lower Bound (BCRLB) analysis and numerical simulations are conducted. Our analysis unveils that, by exploiting the potential state information via the general MDBN model, the proposed VBF algorithm provides a promising solution to the online tracking of a mobile node in WSNs. In addition, it is shown that the final tracking accuracy linearly scales with its expectation when the RSS measurement precision is time-varying. PMID:25393784

Model-based Bayesian inference for ROC data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Tianhu; Bae, K. Ty

2013-03-01

This paper presents a study of model-based Bayesian inference to Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) data. The model is a simple version of general non-linear regression model. Different from Dorfman model, it uses a probit link function with a covariate variable having zero-one two values to express binormal distributions in a single formula. Model also includes a scale parameter. Bayesian inference is implemented by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method carried out by Bayesian analysis Using Gibbs Sampling (BUGS). Contrast to the classical statistical theory, Bayesian approach considers model parameters as random variables characterized by prior distributions. With substantial amount of simulated samples generated by sampling algorithm, posterior distributions of parameters as well as parameters themselves can be accurately estimated. MCMC-based BUGS adopts Adaptive Rejection Sampling (ARS) protocol which requires the probability density function (pdf) which samples are drawing from be log concave with respect to the targeted parameters. Our study corrects a common misconception and proves that pdf of this regression model is log concave with respect to its scale parameter. Therefore, ARS's requirement is satisfied and a Gaussian prior which is conjugate and possesses many analytic and computational advantages is assigned to the scale parameter. A cohort of 20 simulated data sets and 20 simulations from each data set are used in our study. Output analysis and convergence diagnostics for MCMC method are assessed by CODA package. Models and methods by using continuous Gaussian prior and discrete categorical prior are compared. Intensive simulations and performance measures are given to illustrate our practice in the framework of model-based Bayesian inference using MCMC method.

Systemic antibiotics in the treatment of aggressive periodontitis. A systematic review and a Bayesian Network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Rabelo, Cleverton Correa; Feres, Magda; Gonçalves, Cristiane; Figueiredo, Luciene C; Faveri, Marcelo; Tu, Yu-Kang; Chambrone, Leandro

2015-07-01

The aim of this study was to assess the effect of systemic antibiotic therapy on the treatment of aggressive periodontitis (AgP). This study was conducted and reported in accordance with the PRISMA statement. The MEDLINE, EMBASE and CENTRAL databases were searched up to June 2014 for randomized clinical trials comparing the treatment of subjects with AgP with either scaling and root planing (SRP) alone or associated with systemic antibiotics. Bayesian network meta-analysis was prepared using the Bayesian random-effects hierarchical models and the outcomes reported at 6-month post-treatment. Out of 350 papers identified, 14 studies were eligible. Greater gain in clinical attachment (CA) (mean difference [MD]: 1.08 mm; p < 0.0001) and reduction in probing depth (PD) (MD: 1.05 mm; p < 0.00001) were observed for SRP + metronidazole (Mtz), and for SRP + Mtz + amoxicillin (Amx) (MD: 0.45 mm, MD: 0.53 mm, respectively; p < 0.00001) than SRP alone/placebo. Bayesian network meta-analysis showed additional benefits in CA gain and PD reduction when SRP was associated with systemic antibiotics. SRP plus systemic antibiotics led to an additional clinical effect compared with SRP alone in the treatment of AgP. Of the antibiotic protocols available for inclusion into the Bayesian network meta-analysis, Mtz and Mtz/Amx provided to the most beneficial outcomes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bayesian model reduction and empirical Bayes for group (DCM) studies.

PubMed

Friston, Karl J; Litvak, Vladimir; Oswal, Ashwini; Razi, Adeel; Stephan, Klaas E; van Wijk, Bernadette C M; Ziegler, Gabriel; Zeidman, Peter

2016-03-01

This technical note describes some Bayesian procedures for the analysis of group studies that use nonlinear models at the first (within-subject) level - e.g., dynamic causal models - and linear models at subsequent (between-subject) levels. Its focus is on using Bayesian model reduction to finesse the inversion of multiple models of a single dataset or a single (hierarchical or empirical Bayes) model of multiple datasets. These applications of Bayesian model reduction allow one to consider parametric random effects and make inferences about group effects very efficiently (in a few seconds). We provide the relatively straightforward theoretical background to these procedures and illustrate their application using a worked example. This example uses a simulated mismatch negativity study of schizophrenia. We illustrate the robustness of Bayesian model reduction to violations of the (commonly used) Laplace assumption in dynamic causal modelling and show how its recursive application can facilitate both classical and Bayesian inference about group differences. Finally, we consider the application of these empirical Bayesian procedures to classification and prediction. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Molecular systematics of the freshwater stingrays (myliobatiformes: potamotrygonidae) of the Amazon, Orinoco, Magdalena, Esequibo, Caribbean, and Maracaibo basins (Colombia - Venezuela): evidence from three mitochondrial genes.

PubMed

Garcia, David Alejandro; Lasso, Carlos Andres; Morales, Monica; Caballero, Susana Josefina

2016-11-01

Lack of adequate information about the taxonomic and evolutionary relationships, ecology, biology, and distribution of several species belonging to the family Potamotrygonidae makes these species vulnerable to anthropic activities, including commercial overexploitation for the ornamental fish market. The aim of this study was to investigate the systematic relationships among genera and species belonging to this family by analyses of three mitochondrial gene regions. Samples were collected from the main river basins in Colombia and Venezuela for four genera and seven species of the family, as well as for what appear to be unidentified species. Three mitochondrial molecular markers COI, Cytb, and ATP6 were amplified and sequenced. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference analysis were performed to obtain topologies for each marker and for a concatenated dataset including the three genes. Small dataset may compromise some methods estimations of sequence divergence in the ATP6 marker. Monophyly of the four genera in Potamotrygonidae was confirmed and phylogenetic relationships among members of the Potamotrygon genus were not clearly resolved. However, results obtained with the molecular marker Cytb appear to offer a good starting point to differentiate among genera and species as a tool that could be used for barcoding. The application of this gene as a barcode could be applied for management and regulation of extraction practices for these genera. Sequencing complete mitochondrial genomes would be the next step for testing evolutionary hypothesis among these genera. Population structure analyses should be undertaken for Paratrygon, Potamotrygon magdalenae and motoro.

A New Perspective on Listeria monocytogenes Evolution

PubMed Central

Ragon, Marie; Wirth, Thierry; Hollandt, Florian; Lavenir, Rachel; Lecuit, Marc; Le Monnier, Alban; Brisse, Sylvain

2008-01-01

Listeria monocytogenes is a model organism for cellular microbiology and host–pathogen interaction studies and an important food-borne pathogen widespread in the environment, thus representing an attractive model to study the evolution of virulence. The phylogenetic structure of L. monocytogenes was determined by sequencing internal portions of seven housekeeping genes (3,288 nucleotides) in 360 representative isolates. Fifty-eight of the 126 disclosed sequence types were grouped into seven well-demarcated clonal complexes (clones) that comprised almost 75% of clinical isolates. Each clone had a unique or dominant serotype (4b for clones 1, 2 and 4, 1/2b for clones 3 and 5, 1/2a for clone 7, and 1/2c for clone 9), with no association of clones with clinical forms of human listeriosis. Homologous recombination was extremely limited (r/m<1 for nucleotides), implying long-term genetic stability of multilocus genotypes over time. Bayesian analysis based on 438 SNPs recovered the three previously defined lineages, plus one unclassified isolate of mixed ancestry. The phylogenetic distribution of serotypes indicated that serotype 4b evolved once from 1/2b, the likely ancestral serotype of lineage I. Serotype 1/2c derived once from 1/2a, with reference strain EGDe (1/2a) likely representing an intermediate evolutionary state. In contrast to housekeeping genes, the virulence factor internalin (InlA) evolved by localized recombination resulting in a mosaic pattern, with convergent evolution indicative of natural selection towards a truncation of InlA protein. This work provides a reference evolutionary framework for future studies on L. monocytogenes epidemiology, ecology, and virulence. PMID:18773117

Bayesian phylogeny of sucrose transporters: ancient origins, differential expansion and convergent evolution in monocots and dicots

PubMed Central

Peng, Duo; Gu, Xi; Xue, Liang-Jiao; Leebens-Mack, James H.; Tsai, Chung-Jui

2014-01-01

Sucrose transporters (SUTs) are essential for the export and efficient movement of sucrose from source leaves to sink organs in plants. The angiosperm SUT family was previously classified into three or four distinct groups, Types I, II (subgroup IIB), and III, with dicot-specific Type I and monocot-specific Type IIB functioning in phloem loading. To shed light on the underlying drivers of SUT evolution, Bayesian phylogenetic inference was undertaken using 41 sequenced plant genomes, including seven basal lineages at key evolutionary junctures. Our analysis supports four phylogenetically and structurally distinct SUT subfamilies, originating from two ancient groups (AG1 and AG2) that diverged early during terrestrial colonization. In both AG1 and AG2, multiple intron acquisition events in the progenitor vascular plant established the gene structures of modern SUTs. Tonoplastic Type III and plasmalemmal Type II represent evolutionarily conserved descendants of AG1 and AG2, respectively. Type I and Type IIB were previously thought to evolve after the dicot-monocot split. We show, however, that divergence of Type I from Type III SUT predated basal angiosperms, likely associated with evolution of vascular cambium and phloem transport. Type I SUT was subsequently lost in monocots along with vascular cambium, and independent evolution of Type IIB coincided with modified monocot vasculature. Both Type I and Type IIB underwent lineage-specific expansion. In multiple unrelated taxa, the newly-derived SUTs exhibit biased expression in reproductive tissues, suggesting a functional link between phloem loading and reproductive fitness. Convergent evolution of Type I and Type IIB for SUT function in phloem loading and reproductive organs supports the idea that differential vascular development in dicots and monocots is a strong driver for SUT family evolution in angiosperms. PMID:25429293

Assessing the prevalence of hybridization between sympatric Canis species surrounding the red wolf (Canis rufus) recovery area in North Carolina.

PubMed

Bohling, Justin H; Waits, Lisette P

2011-05-01

Predicting spatial patterns of hybridization is important for evolutionary and conservation biology yet are hampered by poor understanding of how hybridizing species can interact. This is especially pertinent in contact zones where hybridizing populations are sympatric. In this study, we examined the extent of red wolf (Canis rufus) colonization and introgression where the species contacts a coyote (C. latrans) population in North Carolina, USA. We surveyed 22,000km(2) in the winter of 2008 for scat and identified individual canids through genetic analysis. Of 614 collected scats, 250 were assigned to canids by mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequencing. Canid samples were genotyped at 6-17 microsatellite loci (nDNA) and assigned to species using three admixture criteria implemented in two Bayesian clustering programs. We genotyped 82 individuals but none were identified as red wolves. Two individuals had red wolf mtDNA but no significant red wolf nDNA ancestry. One individual possessed significant red wolf nDNA ancestry (approximately 30%) using all criteria, although seven other individuals showed evidence of red wolf ancestry (11-21%) using the relaxed criterion. Overall, seven individuals were classified as hybrids using the conservative criteria and 37 using the relaxed criterion. We found evidence of dog (C. familiaris) and gray wolf (C. lupus) introgression into the coyote population. We compared the performance of different methods and criteria by analyzing known red wolves and hybrids. These results suggest that red wolf colonization and introgression in North Carolina is minimal and provide insights into the utility of Bayesian clustering methods to detect hybridization. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Maritime Transportation Risk Assessment of Tianjin Port with Bayesian Belief Networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Jinfen; Teixeira, Ângelo P; Guedes Soares, C; Yan, Xinping; Liu, Kezhong

2016-06-01

This article develops a Bayesian belief network model for the prediction of accident consequences in the Tianjin port. The study starts with a statistical analysis of historical accident data of six years from 2008 to 2013. Then a Bayesian belief network is constructed to express the dependencies between the indicator variables and accident consequences. The statistics and expert knowledge are synthesized in the Bayesian belief network model to obtain the probability distribution of the consequences. By a sensitivity analysis, several indicator variables that have influence on the consequences are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequences are most sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred, followed by time of day and ship length. The results also reflect that the navigational risk of the Tianjin port is at the acceptable level, despite that there is more room of improvement. These results can be used by the Maritime Safety Administration to take effective measures to enhance maritime safety in the Tianjin port. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

2016-08-01

Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

Using a multi-gene approach to infer the complicated phylogeny and evolutionary history of lorises (Order Primates: Family Lorisidae).

PubMed

Munds, Rachel A; Titus, Chelsea L; Eggert, Lori S; Blomquist, Gregory E

2018-05-25

Extensive phylogenetic studies have found robust phylogenies are modeled by using a multi-gene approach and sampling from the majority of the taxa of interest. Yet, molecular studies focused on the lorises, a cryptic primate family, have often relied on one gene, or just mitochondrial DNA, and many were unable to include all four genera in the analyses, resulting in inconclusive phylogenies. Past phylogenetic loris studies resulted in lorises being monophyletic, paraphyletic, or an unresolvable trichotomy with the closely related galagos. The purpose of our study is to improve our understanding of loris phylogeny and evolutionary history by using a multi-gene approach. We used the mitochondrial genes cytochrome b, and cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1, along with a nuclear intron (recombination activating gene 2) and nuclear exon (the melanocortin 1 receptor). Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses were conducted based on data from each locus, as well as on the concatenated sequences. The robust, concatenated results found lorises to be a monophyletic family (Lorisidae) (PP ≥ 0.99) with two distinct subfamilies: the African Perodictinae (PP ≥ 0.99) and the Asian Lorisinae (PP ≥ 0.99). Additionally, from these analyses all four genera were all recovered as monophyletic (PP ≥ 0.99). Some of our single-gene analyses recovered monophyly, but many had discordances, with some showing paraphyly or a deep-trichotomy. Bayesian partitioned analyses inferred the most recent common ancestors of lorises emerged ∼42 ± 6 million years ago (mya), the Asian Lorisinae separated ∼30 ± 9 mya, and Perodictinae arose ∼26 ± 10 mya. These times fit well with known historical tectonic shifts of the area, as well as with the sparse loris fossil record. Additionally, our results agree with previous multi-gene studies on Lorisidae which found lorises to be monophyletic and arising ∼40 mya (Perelman et al., 2011; Pozzi et al., 2014). By taking a multi-gene approach, we were able to recover a well-supported, monophyletic loris phylogeny and inferred the evolutionary history of this cryptic family. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Embedding the results of focussed Bayesian fusion into a global context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sander, Jennifer; Heizmann, Michael

2014-05-01

Bayesian statistics offers a well-founded and powerful fusion methodology also for the fusion of heterogeneous information sources. However, except in special cases, the needed posterior distribution is not analytically derivable. As consequence, Bayesian fusion may cause unacceptably high computational and storage costs in practice. Local Bayesian fusion approaches aim at reducing the complexity of the Bayesian fusion methodology significantly. This is done by concentrating the actual Bayesian fusion on the potentially most task relevant parts of the domain of the Properties of Interest. Our research on these approaches is motivated by an analogy to criminal investigations where criminalists pursue clues also only locally. This publication follows previous publications on a special local Bayesian fusion technique called focussed Bayesian fusion. Here, the actual calculation of the posterior distribution gets completely restricted to a suitably chosen local context. By this, the global posterior distribution is not completely determined. Strategies for using the results of a focussed Bayesian analysis appropriately are needed. In this publication, we primarily contrast different ways of embedding the results of focussed Bayesian fusion explicitly into a global context. To obtain a unique global posterior distribution, we analyze the application of the Maximum Entropy Principle that has been shown to be successfully applicable in metrology and in different other areas. To address the special need for making further decisions subsequently to the actual fusion task, we further analyze criteria for decision making under partial information.

Phylogeny of sipunculan worms: A combined analysis of four gene regions and morphology.

PubMed

Schulze, Anja; Cutler, Edward B; Giribet, Gonzalo

2007-01-01

The intra-phyletic relationships of sipunculan worms were analyzed based on DNA sequence data from four gene regions and 58 morphological characters. Initially we analyzed the data under direct optimization using parsimony as optimality criterion. An implied alignment resulting from the direct optimization analysis was subsequently utilized to perform a Bayesian analysis with mixed models for the different data partitions. For this we applied a doublet model for the stem regions of the 18S rRNA. Both analyses support monophyly of Sipuncula and most of the same clades within the phylum. The analyses differ with respect to the relationships among the major groups but whereas the deep nodes in the direct optimization analysis generally show low jackknife support, they are supported by 100% posterior probability in the Bayesian analysis. Direct optimization has been useful for handling sequences of unequal length and generating conservative phylogenetic hypotheses whereas the Bayesian analysis under mixed models provided high resolution in the basal nodes of the tree.

Multilocus approach to clarify species status and the divergence history of the Bemisia tabaci (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) species complex.

PubMed

Hsieh, Chia-Hung; Ko, Chiun-Cheng; Chung, Cheng-Han; Wang, Hurng-Yi

2014-07-01

The sweet potato whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, is a highly differentiated species complex. Despite consisting of several morphologically indistinguishable entities and frequent invasions on all continents with important associated economic losses, the phylogenetic relationships, species status, and evolutionary history of this species complex is still debated. We sequenced and analyzed one mitochondrial and three single-copy nuclear genes from 9 of the 12 genetic groups of B. tabaci and 5 closely related species. Bayesian species delimitation was applied to investigate the speciation events of B. tabaci. The species statuses of the different genetic groups were strongly supported under different prior settings and phylogenetic scenarios. Divergence histories were estimated by a multispecies coalescence approach implemented in (*)BEAST. Based on mitochondrial locus, B. tabaci was originated 6.47 million years ago (MYA). Nevertheless, the time was 1.25MYA based on nuclear loci. According to the method of approximate Bayesian computation, this difference is probably due to different degrees of migration among loci; i.e., although the mitochondrial locus had differentiated, gene flow at nuclear loci was still possible, a scenario similar to parapatric mode of speciation. This is the first study in whiteflies using multilocus data and incorporating Bayesian coalescence approaches, both of which provide a more biologically realistic framework for delimiting species status and delineating the divergence history of B. tabaci. Our study illustrates that gene flow during species divergence should not be overlooked and has a great impact on divergence time estimation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Generic reclassification and species boundaries in the rediscovered freshwater mussel ‘Quadrula’ mitchelli (Simpson in Dall, 1896)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pfeiffer, John M.; Johnson, Nathan A.; Randklev, Charles R.; Howells, Robert G.; Williams, James D.

2016-01-01

The Central Texas endemic freshwater mussel, Quadrula mitchelli (Simpson in Dall, 1896), had been presumed extinct until relict populations were recently rediscovered. To help guide ongoing and future conservation efforts focused on Q. mitchelli we set out to resolve several uncertainties regarding its evolutionary history, specifically its unknown generic position and untested species boundaries. We designed a molecular matrix consisting of two loci (cytochrome c oxidase subunit I and internal transcribed spacer I) and 57 terminal taxa to test the generic position of Q. mitchelli using Bayesian inference and maximum likelihood phylogenetic reconstruction. We also employed two Bayesian species validation methods to test five a priori species models (i.e. hypotheses of species delimitation). Our study is the first to test the generic position of Q.mitchelli and we found robust support for its inclusion in the genusFusconaia. Accordingly, we introduce the binomial, Fusconaia mitchelli comb. nov., to accurately represent the systematic position of the species. We resolved F. mitchelli individuals in two well supported and divergent clades that were generally distinguished as distinct species using Bayesian species validation methods, although alternative hypotheses of species delineation were also supported. Despite strong evidence of genetic isolation within F. mitchelli, we do not advocate for species-level status of the two clades as they are allopatrically distributed and no morphological, behavioral, or ecological characters are known to distinguish them. These results are discussed in the context of the systematics, distribution, and conservation ofF. mitchelli.

Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

2015-01-01

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

Semiparametric Thurstonian Models for Recurrent Choices: A Bayesian Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ansari, Asim; Iyengar, Raghuram

2006-01-01

We develop semiparametric Bayesian Thurstonian models for analyzing repeated choice decisions involving multinomial, multivariate binary or multivariate ordinal data. Our modeling framework has multiple components that together yield considerable flexibility in modeling preference utilities, cross-sectional heterogeneity and parameter-driven…

Deep Learning Neural Networks and Bayesian Neural Networks in Data Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chernoded, Andrey; Dudko, Lev; Myagkov, Igor; Volkov, Petr

2017-10-01

Most of the modern analyses in high energy physics use signal-versus-background classification techniques of machine learning methods and neural networks in particular. Deep learning neural network is the most promising modern technique to separate signal and background and now days can be widely and successfully implemented as a part of physical analysis. In this article we compare Deep learning and Bayesian neural networks application as a classifiers in an instance of top quark analysis.

A Bayesian test for Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium of biallelic X-chromosomal markers

PubMed Central

Puig, X; Ginebra, J; Graffelman, J

2017-01-01

The X chromosome is a relatively large chromosome, harboring a lot of genetic information. Much of the statistical analysis of X-chromosomal information is complicated by the fact that males only have one copy. Recently, frequentist statistical tests for Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium have been proposed specifically for dealing with markers on the X chromosome. Bayesian test procedures for Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium for the autosomes have been described, but Bayesian work on the X chromosome in this context is lacking. This paper gives the first Bayesian approach for testing Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium with biallelic markers at the X chromosome. Marginal and joint posterior distributions for the inbreeding coefficient in females and the male to female allele frequency ratio are computed, and used for statistical inference. The paper gives a detailed account of the proposed Bayesian test, and illustrates it with data from the 1000 Genomes project. In that implementation, a novel approach to tackle multiple testing from a Bayesian perspective through posterior predictive checks is used. PMID:28900292

Characterization of the uncertainty of divergence time estimation under relaxed molecular clock models using multiple loci.

PubMed

Zhu, Tianqi; Dos Reis, Mario; Yang, Ziheng

2015-03-01

Genetic sequence data provide information about the distances between species or branch lengths in a phylogeny, but not about the absolute divergence times or the evolutionary rates directly. Bayesian methods for dating species divergences estimate times and rates by assigning priors on them. In particular, the prior on times (node ages on the phylogeny) incorporates information in the fossil record to calibrate the molecular tree. Because times and rates are confounded, our posterior time estimates will not approach point values even if an infinite amount of sequence data are used in the analysis. In a previous study we developed a finite-sites theory to characterize the uncertainty in Bayesian divergence time estimation in analysis of large but finite sequence data sets under a strict molecular clock. As most modern clock dating analyses use more than one locus and are conducted under relaxed clock models, here we extend the theory to the case of relaxed clock analysis of data from multiple loci (site partitions). Uncertainty in posterior time estimates is partitioned into three sources: Sampling errors in the estimates of branch lengths in the tree for each locus due to limited sequence length, variation of substitution rates among lineages and among loci, and uncertainty in fossil calibrations. Using a simple but analogous estimation problem involving the multivariate normal distribution, we predict that as the number of loci ([Formula: see text]) goes to infinity, the variance in posterior time estimates decreases and approaches the infinite-data limit at the rate of 1/[Formula: see text], and the limit is independent of the number of sites in the sequence alignment. We then confirmed the predictions by using computer simulation on phylogenies of two or three species, and by analyzing a real genomic data set for six primate species. Our results suggest that with the fossil calibrations fixed, analyzing multiple loci or site partitions is the most effective way for improving the precision of posterior time estimation. However, even if a huge amount of sequence data is analyzed, considerable uncertainty will persist in time estimates. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

Uncertainty Analysis and Parameter Estimation For Nearshore Hydrodynamic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardani, S.; Kaihatu, J. M.

2012-12-01

Numerical models represent deterministic approaches used for the relevant physical processes in the nearshore. Complexity of the physics of the model and uncertainty involved in the model inputs compel us to apply a stochastic approach to analyze the robustness of the model. The Bayesian inverse problem is one powerful way to estimate the important input model parameters (determined by apriori sensitivity analysis) and can be used for uncertainty analysis of the outputs. Bayesian techniques can be used to find the range of most probable parameters based on the probability of the observed data and the residual errors. In this study, the effect of input data involving lateral (Neumann) boundary conditions, bathymetry and off-shore wave conditions on nearshore numerical models are considered. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to a deterministic numerical model (the Delft3D modeling suite for coupled waves and flow) for the resulting uncertainty analysis of the outputs (wave height, flow velocity, mean sea level and etc.). Uncertainty analysis of outputs is performed by random sampling from the input probability distribution functions and running the model as required until convergence to the consistent results is achieved. The case study used in this analysis is the Duck94 experiment, which was conducted at the U.S. Army Field Research Facility at Duck, North Carolina, USA in the fall of 1994. The joint probability of model parameters relevant for the Duck94 experiments will be found using the Bayesian approach. We will further show that, by using Bayesian techniques to estimate the optimized model parameters as inputs and applying them for uncertainty analysis, we can obtain more consistent results than using the prior information for input data which means that the variation of the uncertain parameter will be decreased and the probability of the observed data will improve as well. Keywords: Monte Carlo Simulation, Delft3D, uncertainty analysis, Bayesian techniques, MCMC

A Nonstationary Markov Model Detects Directional Evolution in Hymenopteran Morphology.

PubMed

Klopfstein, Seraina; Vilhelmsen, Lars; Ronquist, Fredrik

2015-11-01

Directional evolution has played an important role in shaping the morphological, ecological, and molecular diversity of life. However, standard substitution models assume stationarity of the evolutionary process over the time scale examined, thus impeding the study of directionality. Here we explore a simple, nonstationary model of evolution for discrete data, which assumes that the state frequencies at the root differ from the equilibrium frequencies of the homogeneous evolutionary process along the rest of the tree (i.e., the process is nonstationary, nonreversible, but homogeneous). Within this framework, we develop a Bayesian approach for testing directional versus stationary evolution using a reversible-jump algorithm. Simulations show that when only data from extant taxa are available, the success in inferring directionality is strongly dependent on the evolutionary rate, the shape of the tree, the relative branch lengths, and the number of taxa. Given suitable evolutionary rates (0.1-0.5 expected substitutions between root and tips), accounting for directionality improves tree inference and often allows correct rooting of the tree without the use of an outgroup. As an empirical test, we apply our method to study directional evolution in hymenopteran morphology. We focus on three character systems: wing veins, muscles, and sclerites. We find strong support for a trend toward loss of wing veins and muscles, while stationarity cannot be ruled out for sclerites. Adding fossil and time information in a total-evidence dating approach, we show that accounting for directionality results in more precise estimates not only of the ancestral state at the root of the tree, but also of the divergence times. Our model relaxes the assumption of stationarity and reversibility by adding a minimum of additional parameters, and is thus well suited to studying the nature of the evolutionary process in data sets of limited size, such as morphology and ecology. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

Automated Bayesian model development for frequency detection in biological time series.

PubMed

Granqvist, Emma; Oldroyd, Giles E D; Morris, Richard J

2011-06-24

A first step in building a mathematical model of a biological system is often the analysis of the temporal behaviour of key quantities. Mathematical relationships between the time and frequency domain, such as Fourier Transforms and wavelets, are commonly used to extract information about the underlying signal from a given time series. This one-to-one mapping from time points to frequencies inherently assumes that both domains contain the complete knowledge of the system. However, for truncated, noisy time series with background trends this unique mapping breaks down and the question reduces to an inference problem of identifying the most probable frequencies. In this paper we build on the method of Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and demonstrate its advantages over conventional methods by applying it to a number of test cases, including two types of biological time series. Firstly, oscillations of calcium in plant root cells in response to microbial symbionts are non-stationary and noisy, posing challenges to data analysis. Secondly, circadian rhythms in gene expression measured over only two cycles highlights the problem of time series with limited length. The results show that the Bayesian frequency detection approach can provide useful results in specific areas where Fourier analysis can be uninformative or misleading. We demonstrate further benefits of the Bayesian approach for time series analysis, such as direct comparison of different hypotheses, inherent estimation of noise levels and parameter precision, and a flexible framework for modelling the data without pre-processing. Modelling in systems biology often builds on the study of time-dependent phenomena. Fourier Transforms are a convenient tool for analysing the frequency domain of time series. However, there are well-known limitations of this method, such as the introduction of spurious frequencies when handling short and noisy time series, and the requirement for uniformly sampled data. Biological time series often deviate significantly from the requirements of optimality for Fourier transformation. In this paper we present an alternative approach based on Bayesian inference. We show the value of placing spectral analysis in the framework of Bayesian inference and demonstrate how model comparison can automate this procedure.

Automated Bayesian model development for frequency detection in biological time series

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background A first step in building a mathematical model of a biological system is often the analysis of the temporal behaviour of key quantities. Mathematical relationships between the time and frequency domain, such as Fourier Transforms and wavelets, are commonly used to extract information about the underlying signal from a given time series. This one-to-one mapping from time points to frequencies inherently assumes that both domains contain the complete knowledge of the system. However, for truncated, noisy time series with background trends this unique mapping breaks down and the question reduces to an inference problem of identifying the most probable frequencies. Results In this paper we build on the method of Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and demonstrate its advantages over conventional methods by applying it to a number of test cases, including two types of biological time series. Firstly, oscillations of calcium in plant root cells in response to microbial symbionts are non-stationary and noisy, posing challenges to data analysis. Secondly, circadian rhythms in gene expression measured over only two cycles highlights the problem of time series with limited length. The results show that the Bayesian frequency detection approach can provide useful results in specific areas where Fourier analysis can be uninformative or misleading. We demonstrate further benefits of the Bayesian approach for time series analysis, such as direct comparison of different hypotheses, inherent estimation of noise levels and parameter precision, and a flexible framework for modelling the data without pre-processing. Conclusions Modelling in systems biology often builds on the study of time-dependent phenomena. Fourier Transforms are a convenient tool for analysing the frequency domain of time series. However, there are well-known limitations of this method, such as the introduction of spurious frequencies when handling short and noisy time series, and the requirement for uniformly sampled data. Biological time series often deviate significantly from the requirements of optimality for Fourier transformation. In this paper we present an alternative approach based on Bayesian inference. We show the value of placing spectral analysis in the framework of Bayesian inference and demonstrate how model comparison can automate this procedure. PMID:21702910

Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting.

PubMed

Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen

2015-12-28

We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.

Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen

2015-12-01

We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.

The mitochondrial phylogeny of an ancient lineage of ray-finned fishes (Polypteridae) with implications for the evolution of body elongation, pelvic fin loss, and craniofacial morphology in Osteichthyes

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The family Polypteridae, commonly known as "bichirs", is a lineage that diverged early in the evolutionary history of Actinopterygii (ray-finned fish), but has been the subject of far less evolutionary study than other members of that clade. Uncovering patterns of morphological change within Polypteridae provides an important opportunity to evaluate if the mechanisms underlying morphological evolution are shared among actinoptyerygians, and in fact, perhaps the entire osteichthyan (bony fish and tetrapods) tree of life. However, the greatest impediment to elucidating these patterns is the lack of a well-resolved, highly-supported phylogenetic tree of Polypteridae. In fact, the interrelationships of polypterid species have never been subject to molecular phylogenetic analysis. Here, we infer the first molecular phylogeny of bichirs, including all 12 recognized species and multiple subspecies using Bayesian analyses of 16S and cyt-b mtDNA. We use this mitochondrial phylogeny, ancestral state reconstruction, and geometric morphometrics to test whether patterns of morphological evolution, including the evolution of body elongation, pelvic fin reduction, and craniofacial morphology, are shared throughout the osteichthyan tree of life. Results Our molecular phylogeny reveals 1) a basal divergence between Erpetoichthys and Polypterus, 2) polyphyly of P. endlicheri and P. palmas, and thus 3) the current taxonomy of Polypteridae masks its underlying genetic diversity. Ancestral state reconstructions suggest that pelvic fins were lost independently in Erpetoichthys, and unambiguously estimate multiple independent derivations of body elongation and shortening. Our mitochondrial phylogeny suggested species that have lower jaw protrusion and up-righted orbit are closely related to each other, indicating a single transformation of craniofacial morphology. Conclusion The mitochondrial phylogeny of polypterid fish provides a strongly-supported phylogenetic framework for future comparative evolutionary, physiological, ecological, and genetic analyses. Indeed, ancestral reconstruction and geometric morphometric analyses revealed that the patterns of morphological evolution in Polypteridae are similar to those seen in other osteichthyans, thus implying the underlying genetic and developmental mechanisms responsible for those patterns were established early in the evolutionary history of Osteichthyes. We propose developmental and genetic mechanisms to be tested under the light of this new phylogenetic framework. PMID:20100320

Comparative Phylogeographic Analyses Illustrate the Complex Evolutionary History of Threatened Cloud Forests of Northern Mesoamerica

PubMed Central

Ornelas, Juan Francisco; Sosa, Victoria; Soltis, Douglas E.; Daza, Juan M.; González, Clementina; Soltis, Pamela S.; Gutiérrez-Rodríguez, Carla; de los Monteros, Alejandro Espinosa; Castoe, Todd A.; Bell, Charles; Ruiz-Sanchez, Eduardo

2013-01-01

Comparative phylogeography can elucidate the influence of historical events on current patterns of biodiversity and can identify patterns of co-vicariance among unrelated taxa that span the same geographic areas. Here we analyze temporal and spatial divergence patterns of cloud forest plant and animal species and relate them to the evolutionary history of naturally fragmented cloud forests–among the most threatened vegetation types in northern Mesoamerica. We used comparative phylogeographic analyses to identify patterns of co-vicariance in taxa that share geographic ranges across cloud forest habitats and to elucidate the influence of historical events on current patterns of biodiversity. We document temporal and spatial genetic divergence of 15 species (including seed plants, birds and rodents), and relate them to the evolutionary history of the naturally fragmented cloud forests. We used fossil-calibrated genealogies, coalescent-based divergence time inference, and estimates of gene flow to assess the permeability of putative barriers to gene flow. We also used the hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation (HABC) method implemented in the program msBayes to test simultaneous versus non-simultaneous divergence of the cloud forest lineages. Our results show shared phylogeographic breaks that correspond to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Los Tuxtlas, and the Chiapas Central Depression, with the Isthmus representing the most frequently shared break among taxa. However, dating analyses suggest that the phylogeographic breaks corresponding to the Isthmus occurred at different times in different taxa. Current divergence patterns are therefore consistent with the hypothesis of broad vicariance across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec derived from different mechanisms operating at different times. This study, coupled with existing data on divergence cloud forest species, indicates that the evolutionary history of contemporary cloud forest lineages is complex and often lineage-specific, and thus difficult to capture in a simple conservation strategy. PMID:23409165

Population Genetic Structure of Cnesterodon decemmaculatus (Poeciliidae): A Freshwater Look at the Pampa Biome in Southern South America

PubMed Central

Ramos-Fregonezi, Aline M. C.; Malabarba, Luiz R.; Fagundes, Nelson J. R.

2017-01-01

The Pampas is a Neotropical biome formed primarily by low altitude grasslands and encompasses the southernmost portion of Brazil, Uruguay, and part of Argentina. Despite the high level of endemism, and its significant environmental heterogeneity, Pampean species are underrepresented in phylogeographic studies, especially aquatic organisms. The Pampean hydrological system resulted from a long history of tectonism, climate, and sea level changes since the Neogene. In this study, we examined the population genetic structure of Cnesterodon decemmaculatus, a freshwater fish species that occurs throughout most of the Pampa biome. We characterized mitochondrial and autosomal genetic lineages in populations sampled from Southern Brazil and Uruguay to investigate (1) the correspondence between current drainage systems and evolutionary lineages, (2) the demographic history for each genetic lineage, and (3) the temporal depth of these lineages. Overall, we found that the major evolutionary lineages in this species are strongly related to the main Pampean drainage systems, even though stream capture events may have affected the distribution of genetic lineages among drainages. There was evidence for recent population growth in the lineages occupying drainages closest to the shore, which may indicate the effect of quaternary sea-level changes. In general, divergence time estimates among evolutionary lineages were shallow, ranging from 20,000 to 800,000 years before present, indicating a geologically recent history for this group, as previously reported in other Pampean species. A Bayesian phylogeographical reconstruction suggested that an ancestral lineage probably colonized the Uruguay River Basin, and then expanded throughout the Pampas. This evolutionary scenario may represent useful starting models for other freshwater species having a similar distribution. PMID:29312439

Ancient papillomavirus-host co-speciation in Felidae

PubMed Central

Rector, Annabel; Lemey, Philippe; Tachezy, Ruth; Mostmans, Sara; Ghim, Shin-Je; Van Doorslaer, Koenraad; Roelke, Melody; Bush, Mitchell; Montali, Richard J; Joslin, Janis; Burk, Robert D; Jenson, Alfred B; Sundberg, John P; Shapiro, Beth; Van Ranst, Marc

2007-01-01

Background Estimating evolutionary rates for slowly evolving viruses such as papillomaviruses (PVs) is not possible using fossil calibrations directly or sequences sampled over a time-scale of decades. An ability to correlate their divergence with a host species, however, can provide a means to estimate evolutionary rates for these viruses accurately. To determine whether such an approach is feasible, we sequenced complete feline PV genomes, previously available only for the domestic cat (Felis domesticus, FdPV1), from four additional, globally distributed feline species: Lynx rufus PV type 1, Puma concolor PV type 1, Panthera leo persica PV type 1, and Uncia uncia PV type 1. Results The feline PVs all belong to the Lambdapapillomavirus genus, and contain an unusual second noncoding region between the early and late protein region, which is only present in members of this genus. Our maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses demonstrate that the evolutionary relationships between feline PVs perfectly mirror those of their feline hosts, despite a complex and dynamic phylogeographic history. By applying host species divergence times, we provide the first precise estimates for the rate of evolution for each PV gene, with an overall evolutionary rate of 1.95 × 10-8 (95% confidence interval 1.32 × 10-8 to 2.47 × 10-8) nucleotide substitutions per site per year for the viral coding genome. Conclusion Our work provides evidence for long-term virus-host co-speciation of feline PVs, indicating that viral diversity in slowly evolving viruses can be used to investigate host species evolution. These findings, however, should not be extrapolated to other viral lineages without prior confirmation of virus-host co-divergence. PMID:17430578

Assessing Multivariate Constraints to Evolution across Ten Long-Term Avian Studies

PubMed Central

Teplitsky, Celine; Tarka, Maja; Møller, Anders P.; Nakagawa, Shinichi; Balbontín, Javier; Burke, Terry A.; Doutrelant, Claire; Gregoire, Arnaud; Hansson, Bengt; Hasselquist, Dennis; Gustafsson, Lars; de Lope, Florentino; Marzal, Alfonso; Mills, James A.; Wheelwright, Nathaniel T.; Yarrall, John W.; Charmantier, Anne

2014-01-01

Background In a rapidly changing world, it is of fundamental importance to understand processes constraining or facilitating adaptation through microevolution. As different traits of an organism covary, genetic correlations are expected to affect evolutionary trajectories. However, only limited empirical data are available. Methodology/Principal Findings We investigate the extent to which multivariate constraints affect the rate of adaptation, focusing on four morphological traits often shown to harbour large amounts of genetic variance and considered to be subject to limited evolutionary constraints. Our data set includes unique long-term data for seven bird species and a total of 10 populations. We estimate population-specific matrices of genetic correlations and multivariate selection coefficients to predict evolutionary responses to selection. Using Bayesian methods that facilitate the propagation of errors in estimates, we compare (1) the rate of adaptation based on predicted response to selection when including genetic correlations with predictions from models where these genetic correlations were set to zero and (2) the multivariate evolvability in the direction of current selection to the average evolvability in random directions of the phenotypic space. We show that genetic correlations on average decrease the predicted rate of adaptation by 28%. Multivariate evolvability in the direction of current selection was systematically lower than average evolvability in random directions of space. These significant reductions in the rate of adaptation and reduced evolvability were due to a general nonalignment of selection and genetic variance, notably orthogonality of directional selection with the size axis along which most (60%) of the genetic variance is found. Conclusions These results suggest that genetic correlations can impose significant constraints on the evolution of avian morphology in wild populations. This could have important impacts on evolutionary dynamics and hence population persistence in the face of rapid environmental change. PMID:24608111

Population Genetic Structure of Cnesterodon decemmaculatus (Poeciliidae): A Freshwater Look at the Pampa Biome in Southern South America.

PubMed

Ramos-Fregonezi, Aline M C; Malabarba, Luiz R; Fagundes, Nelson J R

2017-01-01

The Pampas is a Neotropical biome formed primarily by low altitude grasslands and encompasses the southernmost portion of Brazil, Uruguay, and part of Argentina. Despite the high level of endemism, and its significant environmental heterogeneity, Pampean species are underrepresented in phylogeographic studies, especially aquatic organisms. The Pampean hydrological system resulted from a long history of tectonism, climate, and sea level changes since the Neogene. In this study, we examined the population genetic structure of Cnesterodon decemmaculatus , a freshwater fish species that occurs throughout most of the Pampa biome. We characterized mitochondrial and autosomal genetic lineages in populations sampled from Southern Brazil and Uruguay to investigate (1) the correspondence between current drainage systems and evolutionary lineages, (2) the demographic history for each genetic lineage, and (3) the temporal depth of these lineages. Overall, we found that the major evolutionary lineages in this species are strongly related to the main Pampean drainage systems, even though stream capture events may have affected the distribution of genetic lineages among drainages. There was evidence for recent population growth in the lineages occupying drainages closest to the shore, which may indicate the effect of quaternary sea-level changes. In general, divergence time estimates among evolutionary lineages were shallow, ranging from 20,000 to 800,000 years before present, indicating a geologically recent history for this group, as previously reported in other Pampean species. A Bayesian phylogeographical reconstruction suggested that an ancestral lineage probably colonized the Uruguay River Basin, and then expanded throughout the Pampas. This evolutionary scenario may represent useful starting models for other freshwater species having a similar distribution.

BANYAN. IV. Fundamental parameters of low-mass star candidates in nearby young stellar kinematic groups—isochronal age determination using magnetic evolutionary models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Malo, Lison; Doyon, René; Albert, Loïc

2014-09-01

Based on high-resolution optical spectra obtained with ESPaDOnS at Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope, we determine fundamental parameters (T {sub eff}, R, L {sub bol}, log g, and metallicity) for 59 candidate members of nearby young kinematic groups. The candidates were identified through the BANYAN Bayesian inference method of Malo et al., which takes into account the position, proper motion, magnitude, color, radial velocity, and parallax (when available) to establish a membership probability. The derived parameters are compared to Dartmouth magnetic evolutionary models and field stars with the goal of constraining the age of our candidates. We find that, in general, low-mass starsmore » in our sample are more luminous and have inflated radii compared to older stars, a trend expected for pre-main-sequence stars. The Dartmouth magnetic evolutionary models show a good fit to observations of field K and M stars, assuming a magnetic field strength of a few kG, as typically observed for cool stars. Using the low-mass members of the β Pictoris moving group, we have re-examined the age inconsistency problem between lithium depletion age and isochronal age (Hertzspring-Russell diagram). We find that the inclusion of the magnetic field in evolutionary models increases the isochronal age estimates for the K5V-M5V stars. Using these models and field strengths, we derive an average isochronal age between 15 and 28 Myr and we confirm a clear lithium depletion boundary from which an age of 26 ± 3 Myr is derived, consistent with previous age estimates based on this method.« less

Evolutionary history and molecular epidemiology of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus in the Iberian Peninsula and Western Europe

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) is a highly virulent calicivirus, first described in domestic rabbits in China in 1984. RHDV appears to be a mutant form of a benign virus that existed in Europe long before the first outbreak. In the Iberian Peninsula, the first epidemic in 1988 severely reduced the populations of autochthonous European wild rabbit. To examine the evolutionary history of RHDV in the Iberian Peninsula, we collected virus samples from wild rabbits and sequenced a fragment of the capsid protein gene VP60. These data together with available sequences from other Western European countries, were analyzed following Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to infer their phylogenetic relationships, evolutionary rates and demographic history. Results Evolutionary relationships of RHDV revealed three main lineages with significant phylogeographic structure. All lineages seem to have emerged at a common period of time, between ~1875 and ~1976. The Iberian Peninsula showed evidences of genetic isolation, probably due to geographic barriers to gene flow, and was also the region with the youngest MRCA. Overall, demographic analyses showed an initial increase and stabilization of the relative genetic diversity of RHDV, and a subsequent reduction in genetic diversity after the first epidemic breakout in 1984, which is compatible with a decline in effective population size. Conclusions Results were consistent with the hypothesis that the current Iberian RHDV arose from a single infection between 1869 and 1955 (95% HPD), and rendered a temporal pattern of appearance and extinction of lineages. We propose that the rising positive selection pressure observed throughout the history of RHDV is likely mediated by the host immune system as a consequence of the genetic changes that rendered the virus virulent. Consequently, this relationship is suggested to condition RHDV demographic history. PMID:21067589

Contrasting evolutionary patterns of multiple loci uncover new aspects in the genome origin and evolutionary history of Leymus (Triticeae; Poaceae).

PubMed

Sha, Li-Na; Fan, Xing; Li, Jun; Liao, Jin-Qiu; Zeng, Jian; Wang, Yi; Kang, Hou-Yang; Zhang, Hai-Qin; Zheng, You-Liang; Zhou, Yong-Hong

2017-09-01

Leymus Hochst. (Triticeae: Poaceae), a group of allopolyploid species with the NsXm genomes, is a perennial genus with diversity in morphology, cytology, ecology, and distribution in the Triticeae. To investigate the genome origin and evolutionary history of Leymus, three unlinked low-copy nuclear genes (Acc1, Pgk1, and GBSSI) and three chloroplast regions (trnL-F, matK, and rbcL) of 32 Leymus species were analyzed with those of 36 diploid species representing 18 basic genomes in the Triticeae. The phylogenetic relationships were reconstructed using Bayesian inference, Maximum parsimony, and NeighborNet methods. A time-calibrated phylogeny was generated to estimate the evolutionary history of Leymus. The results suggest that reticulate evolution has occurred in Leymus species, with several distinct progenitors contributing to the Leymus. The molecular data in resolution of the Xm-genome lineage resulted in two apparently contradictory results, with one placing the Xm-genome lineage as closely related to the P/F genome and the other splitting the Xm-genome lineage as sister to the Ns-genome donor. Our results suggested that (1) the Ns genome of Leymus was donated by Psathyrostachys, and additional Ns-containing alleles may be introgressed into some Leymus polyploids by recurrent hybridization; (2) The phylogenetic incongruence regarding the resolution of the Xm-genome lineage suggested that the Xm genome of Leymus was closely related to the P genome of Agropyron; (3) Both Ns- and Xm-genome lineages served as the maternal donor during the speciation of Leymus species; (4) The Pseudoroegneria, Lophopyrum and Australopyrum genomes contributed to some Leymus species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pleistocene evolutionary history of the Clouded Apollo (Parnassius mnemosyne): genetic signatures of climate cycles and a 'time-dependent' mitochondrial substitution rate.

PubMed

Gratton, P; Konopiński, M K; Sbordoni, V

2008-10-01

Genetic data are currently providing a large amount of new information on past distribution of species and are contributing to a new vision of Pleistocene ice ages. Nonetheless, an increasing number of studies on the 'time dependency' of mutation rates suggest that date assessments for evolutionary events of the Pleistocene might be overestimated. We analysed mitochondrial (mt) DNA (COI) sequence variation in 225 Parnassius mnemosyne individuals sampled across central and eastern Europe in order to assess (i) the existence of genetic signatures of Pleistocene climate shifts; and (ii) the timescale of demographic and evolutionary events. Our analyses reveal a phylogeographical pattern markedly influenced by the Pleistocene/Holocene climate shifts. Eastern Alpine and Balkan populations display comparatively high mtDNA diversity, suggesting multiple glacial refugia. On the other hand, three widely distributed and spatially segregated lineages occupy most of northern and eastern Europe, indicating postglacial recolonization from different refugial areas. We show that a conventional 'phylogenetic' substitution rate cannot account for the present distribution of genetic variation in this species, and we combine phylogeographical pattern and palaeoecological information in order to determine a suitable intraspecific rate through a Bayesian coalescent approach. We argue that our calibrated 'time-dependent' rate (0.096 substitutions/ million years), offers the most convincing time frame for the evolutionary events inferred from sequence data. When scaled by the new rate, estimates of divergence between Balkan and Alpine lineages point to c. 19 000 years before present (last glacial maximum), and parameters of demographic expansion for northern lineages are consistent with postglacial warming (5-11 000 years before present).

On the Evolutionary and Biogeographic History of Saxifraga sect. Trachyphyllum (Gaud.) Koch (Saxifragaceae Juss.)

PubMed Central

DeChaine, Eric G.; Anderson, Stacy A.; McNew, Jennifer M.; Wendling, Barry M.

2013-01-01

Arctic-alpine plants in the genus Saxifraga L. (Saxifragaceae Juss.) provide an excellent system for investigating the process of diversification in northern regions. Yet, sect. Trachyphyllum (Gaud.) Koch, which is comprised of about 8 to 26 species, has still not been explored by molecular systematists even though taxonomists concur that the section needs to be thoroughly re-examined. Our goals were to use chloroplast trnL-F and nuclear ITS DNA sequence data to circumscribe the section phylogenetically, test models of geographically-based population divergence, and assess the utility of morphological characters in estimating evolutionary relationships. To do so, we sequenced both genetic markers for 19 taxa within the section. The phylogenetic inferences of sect. Trachyphyllum using maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses showed that the section is polyphyletic, with S. aspera L. and S bryoides L. falling outside the main clade. In addition, the analyses supported several taxonomic re-classifications to prior names. We used two approaches to test biogeographic hypotheses: i) a coalescent approach in Mesquite to test the fit of our reconstructed gene trees to geographically-based models of population divergence and ii) a maximum likelihood inference in Lagrange. These tests uncovered strong support for an origin of the clade in the Southern Rocky Mountains of North America followed by dispersal and divergence episodes across refugia. Finally we adopted a stochastic character mapping approach in SIMMAP to investigate the utility of morphological characters in estimating evolutionary relationships among taxa. We found that few morphological characters were phylogenetically informative and many were misleading. Our molecular analyses provide a foundation for the diversity and evolutionary relationships within sect. Trachyphyllum and hypotheses for better understanding the patterns and processes of divergence in this section, other saxifrages, and plants inhabiting the North Pacific Rim. PMID:23922810

Making Sense of a Negative Clinical Trial Result: A Bayesian Analysis of a Clinical Trial of Lorazepam and Diazepam for Pediatric Status Epilepticus.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Daniel B; Chamberlain, James M

2017-01-01

We demonstrate the application of a Bayesian approach to a recent negative clinical trial result. A Bayesian analysis of such a trial can provide a more useful interpretation of results and can incorporate previous evidence. This was a secondary analysis of the efficacy and safety results of the Pediatric Seizure Study, a randomized clinical trial of lorazepam versus diazepam for pediatric status epilepticus. We included the published results from the only prospective pediatric study of status in a Bayesian hierarchic model, and we performed sensitivity analyses on the amount of pooling between studies. We evaluated 3 summary analyses for the results: superiority, noninferiority (margin <-10%), and practical equivalence (within ±10%). Consistent with the original study's classic analysis of study results, we did not demonstrate superiority of lorazepam over diazepam. There is a 95% probability that the true efficacy of lorazepam is in the range of 66% to 80%. For both the efficacy and safety outcomes, there was greater than 95% probability that lorazepam is noninferior to diazepam, and there was greater than 90% probability that the 2 medications are practically equivalent. The results were largely driven by the current study because of the sample sizes of our study (n=273) and the previous pediatric study (n=61). Because Bayesian analysis estimates the probability of one or more hypotheses, such an approach can provide more useful information about the meaning of the results of a negative trial outcome. In the case of pediatric status epilepticus, it is highly likely that lorazepam is noninferior and practically equivalent to diazepam. Copyright © 2016 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial Comparing Antimetabolite Therapies for Non-Infectious Uveitis

PubMed Central

Browne, Erica N; Rathinam, Sivakumar R; Kanakath, Anuradha; Thundikandy, Radhika; Babu, Manohar; Lietman, Thomas M; Acharya, Nisha R

2017-01-01

Purpose To conduct a Bayesian analysis of a randomized clinical trial (RCT) for non-infectious uveitis using expert opinion as a subjective prior belief. Methods A RCT was conducted to determine which antimetabolite, methotrexate or mycophenolate mofetil, is more effective as an initial corticosteroid-sparing agent for the treatment of intermediate, posterior, and pan- uveitis. Before the release of trial results, expert opinion on the relative effectiveness of these two medications was collected via online survey. Members of the American Uveitis Society executive committee were invited to provide an estimate for the relative decrease in efficacy with a 95% credible interval (CrI). A prior probability distribution was created from experts’ estimates. A Bayesian analysis was performed using the constructed expert prior probability distribution and the trial’s primary outcome. Results 11 of 12 invited uveitis specialists provided estimates. Eight of 11 experts (73%) believed mycophenolate mofetil is more effective. The group prior belief was that the odds of treatment success for patients taking mycophenolate mofetil were 1.4-fold the odds of those taking methotrexate (95% CrI 0.03 – 45.0). The odds of treatment success with mycophenolate mofetil compared to methotrexate was 0.4 from the RCT (95% confidence interval 0.1–1.2) and 0.7 (95% CrI 0.2–1.7) from the Bayesian analysis. Conclusions A Bayesian analysis combining expert belief with the trial’s result did not indicate preference for one drug. However, the wide credible interval leaves open the possibility of a substantial treatment effect. This suggests clinical equipoise necessary to allow a larger, more definitive RCT. PMID:27982726

Genetic consequences of sequential founder events by an island-colonizing bird.

PubMed

Clegg, Sonya M; Degnan, Sandie M; Kikkawa, Jiro; Moritz, Craig; Estoup, Arnaud; Owens, Ian P F

2002-06-11

The importance of founder events in promoting evolutionary changes on islands has been a subject of long-running controversy. Resolution of this debate has been hindered by a lack of empirical evidence from naturally founded island populations. Here we undertake a genetic analysis of a series of historically documented, natural colonization events by the silvereye species-complex (Zosterops lateralis), a group used to illustrate the process of island colonization in the original founder effect model. Our results indicate that single founder events do not affect levels of heterozygosity or allelic diversity, nor do they result in immediate genetic differentiation between populations. Instead, four to five successive founder events are required before indices of diversity and divergence approach that seen in evolutionarily old forms. A Bayesian analysis based on computer simulation allows inferences to be made on the number of effective founders and indicates that founder effects are weak because island populations are established from relatively large flocks. Indeed, statistical support for a founder event model was not significantly higher than for a gradual-drift model for all recently colonized islands. Taken together, these results suggest that single colonization events in this species complex are rarely accompanied by severe founder effects, and multiple founder events and/or long-term genetic drift have been of greater consequence for neutral genetic diversity.

Cretaceous origin of the unique prey-capture apparatus in mega-diverse genus: stem lineage of Steninae rove beetles discovered in Burmese amber

PubMed Central

Żyła, Dagmara; Yamamoto, Shûhei; Wolf-Schwenninger, Karin; Solodovnikov, Alexey

2017-01-01

Stenus is the largest genus of rove beetles and the second largest among animals. Its evolutionary success was associated with the adhesive labial prey-capture apparatus, a unique apomorphy of that genus. Definite Stenus with prey-capture apparatus are known from the Cenozoic fossils, while the age and early evolution of Steninae was hardly ever hypothesized. Our study of several Cretaceous Burmese amber inclusions revealed a stem lineage of Steninae that possibly possesses the Stenus-like prey-capture apparatus. Phylogenetic analysis of extinct and extant taxa of Steninae and putatively allied subfamilies of Staphylinidae with parsimony and Bayesian approaches resolved the Burmese amber lineage as a member of Steninae. It justified the description of a new extinct stenine genus Festenus with two new species, F. robustus and F. gracilis. The Late Cretaceous age of Festenus suggests an early origin of prey-capture apparatus in Steninae that, perhaps, drove the evolution towards the crown Stenus. Our analysis confirmed the well-established sister relationships between Steninae and Euaesthetinae and resolved Scydmaeninae as their next closest relative, the latter having no stable position in recent phylogenetic studies of rove beetles. Close affiliation of Megalopsidiinae, a subfamily often considered as a sister group to Euaesthetinae + Steninae clade, is rejected. PMID:28397786

Assessment of parametric uncertainty for groundwater reactive transport modeling,

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shi, Xiaoqing; Ye, Ming; Curtis, Gary P.; Miller, Geoffery L.; Meyer, Philip D.; Kohler, Matthias; Yabusaki, Steve; Wu, Jichun

2014-01-01

The validity of using Gaussian assumptions for model residuals in uncertainty quantification of a groundwater reactive transport model was evaluated in this study. Least squares regression methods explicitly assume Gaussian residuals, and the assumption leads to Gaussian likelihood functions, model parameters, and model predictions. While the Bayesian methods do not explicitly require the Gaussian assumption, Gaussian residuals are widely used. This paper shows that the residuals of the reactive transport model are non-Gaussian, heteroscedastic, and correlated in time; characterizing them requires using a generalized likelihood function such as the formal generalized likelihood function developed by Schoups and Vrugt (2010). For the surface complexation model considered in this study for simulating uranium reactive transport in groundwater, parametric uncertainty is quantified using the least squares regression methods and Bayesian methods with both Gaussian and formal generalized likelihood functions. While the least squares methods and Bayesian methods with Gaussian likelihood function produce similar Gaussian parameter distributions, the parameter distributions of Bayesian uncertainty quantification using the formal generalized likelihood function are non-Gaussian. In addition, predictive performance of formal generalized likelihood function is superior to that of least squares regression and Bayesian methods with Gaussian likelihood function. The Bayesian uncertainty quantification is conducted using the differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM(zs)) algorithm; as a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, it is a robust tool for quantifying uncertainty in groundwater reactive transport models. For the surface complexation model, the regression-based local sensitivity analysis and Morris- and DREAM(ZS)-based global sensitivity analysis yield almost identical ranking of parameter importance. The uncertainty analysis may help select appropriate likelihood functions, improve model calibration, and reduce predictive uncertainty in other groundwater reactive transport and environmental modeling.

A Bayesian Multinomial Probit MODEL FOR THE ANALYSIS OF PANEL CHOICE DATA.

PubMed

Fong, Duncan K H; Kim, Sunghoon; Chen, Zhe; DeSarbo, Wayne S

2016-03-01

A new Bayesian multinomial probit model is proposed for the analysis of panel choice data. Using a parameter expansion technique, we are able to devise a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to compute our Bayesian estimates efficiently. We also show that the proposed procedure enables the estimation of individual level coefficients for the single-period multinomial probit model even when the available prior information is vague. We apply our new procedure to consumer purchase data and reanalyze a well-known scanner panel dataset that reveals new substantive insights. In addition, we delineate a number of advantageous features of our proposed procedure over several benchmark models. Finally, through a simulation analysis employing a fractional factorial design, we demonstrate that the results from our proposed model are quite robust with respect to differing factors across various conditions.

Predictive distributions for between-study heterogeneity and simple methods for their application in Bayesian meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Turner, Rebecca M; Jackson, Dan; Wei, Yinghui; Thompson, Simon G; Higgins, Julian P T

2015-01-01

Numerous meta-analyses in healthcare research combine results from only a small number of studies, for which the variance representing between-study heterogeneity is estimated imprecisely. A Bayesian approach to estimation allows external evidence on the expected magnitude of heterogeneity to be incorporated. The aim of this paper is to provide tools that improve the accessibility of Bayesian meta-analysis. We present two methods for implementing Bayesian meta-analysis, using numerical integration and importance sampling techniques. Based on 14 886 binary outcome meta-analyses in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, we derive a novel set of predictive distributions for the degree of heterogeneity expected in 80 settings depending on the outcomes assessed and comparisons made. These can be used as prior distributions for heterogeneity in future meta-analyses. The two methods are implemented in R, for which code is provided. Both methods produce equivalent results to standard but more complex Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches. The priors are derived as log-normal distributions for the between-study variance, applicable to meta-analyses of binary outcomes on the log odds-ratio scale. The methods are applied to two example meta-analyses, incorporating the relevant predictive distributions as prior distributions for between-study heterogeneity. We have provided resources to facilitate Bayesian meta-analysis, in a form accessible to applied researchers, which allow relevant prior information on the degree of heterogeneity to be incorporated. © 2014 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:25475839

A fully Bayesian before-after analysis of permeable friction course (PFC) pavement wet weather safety.

PubMed

Buddhavarapu, Prasad; Smit, Andre F; Prozzi, Jorge A

2015-07-01

Permeable friction course (PFC), a porous hot-mix asphalt, is typically applied to improve wet weather safety on high-speed roadways in Texas. In order to warrant expensive PFC construction, a statistical evaluation of its safety benefits is essential. Generally, the literature on the effectiveness of porous mixes in reducing wet-weather crashes is limited and often inconclusive. In this study, the safety effectiveness of PFC was evaluated using a fully Bayesian before-after safety analysis. First, two groups of road segments overlaid with PFC and non-PFC material were identified across Texas; the non-PFC or reference road segments selected were similar to their PFC counterparts in terms of site specific features. Second, a negative binomial data generating process was assumed to model the underlying distribution of crash counts of PFC and reference road segments to perform Bayesian inference on the safety effectiveness. A data-augmentation based computationally efficient algorithm was employed for a fully Bayesian estimation. The statistical analysis shows that PFC is not effective in reducing wet weather crashes. It should be noted that the findings of this study are in agreement with the existing literature, although these studies were not based on a fully Bayesian statistical analysis. Our study suggests that the safety effectiveness of PFC road surfaces, or any other safety infrastructure, largely relies on its interrelationship with the road user. The results suggest that the safety infrastructure must be properly used to reap the benefits of the substantial investments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A fully Bayesian method for jointly fitting instrumental calibration and X-ray spectral models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Jin; Yu, Yaming; Van Dyk, David A.

2014-10-20

Owing to a lack of robust principled methods, systematic instrumental uncertainties have generally been ignored in astrophysical data analysis despite wide recognition of the importance of including them. Ignoring calibration uncertainty can cause bias in the estimation of source model parameters and can lead to underestimation of the variance of these estimates. We previously introduced a pragmatic Bayesian method to address this problem. The method is 'pragmatic' in that it introduced an ad hoc technique that simplified computation by neglecting the potential information in the data for narrowing the uncertainty for the calibration product. Following that work, we use amore » principal component analysis to efficiently represent the uncertainty of the effective area of an X-ray (or γ-ray) telescope. Here, however, we leverage this representation to enable a principled, fully Bayesian method that coherently accounts for the calibration uncertainty in high-energy spectral analysis. In this setting, the method is compared with standard analysis techniques and the pragmatic Bayesian method. The advantage of the fully Bayesian method is that it allows the data to provide information not only for estimation of the source parameters but also for the calibration product—here the effective area, conditional on the adopted spectral model. In this way, it can yield more accurate and efficient estimates of the source parameters along with valid estimates of their uncertainty. Provided that the source spectrum can be accurately described by a parameterized model, this method allows rigorous inference about the effective area by quantifying which possible curves are most consistent with the data.« less

Bayesian Techniques for Plasma Theory to Bridge the Gap Between Space and Lab Plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crabtree, Chris; Ganguli, Gurudas; Tejero, Erik

2017-10-01

We will show how Bayesian techniques provide a general data analysis methodology that is better suited to investigate phenomena that require a nonlinear theory for an explanation. We will provide short examples of how Bayesian techniques have been successfully used in the radiation belts to provide precise nonlinear spectral estimates of whistler mode chorus and how these techniques have been verified in laboratory plasmas. We will demonstrate how Bayesian techniques allow for the direct competition of different physical theories with data acting as the necessary arbitrator. This work is supported by the Naval Research Laboratory base program and by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant No. NNH15AZ90I.

Evaluation of a Partial Genome Screening of Two Asthma Susceptibility Regions Using Bayesian Network Based Bayesian Multilevel Analysis of Relevance

PubMed Central

Antal, Péter; Kiszel, Petra Sz.; Gézsi, András; Hadadi, Éva; Virág, Viktor; Hajós, Gergely; Millinghoffer, András; Nagy, Adrienne; Kiss, András; Semsei, Ágnes F.; Temesi, Gergely; Melegh, Béla; Kisfali, Péter; Széll, Márta; Bikov, András; Gálffy, Gabriella; Tamási, Lilla; Falus, András; Szalai, Csaba

2012-01-01

Genetic studies indicate high number of potential factors related to asthma. Based on earlier linkage analyses we selected the 11q13 and 14q22 asthma susceptibility regions, for which we designed a partial genome screening study using 145 SNPs in 1201 individuals (436 asthmatic children and 765 controls). The results were evaluated with traditional frequentist methods and we applied a new statistical method, called Bayesian network based Bayesian multilevel analysis of relevance (BN-BMLA). This method uses Bayesian network representation to provide detailed characterization of the relevance of factors, such as joint significance, the type of dependency, and multi-target aspects. We estimated posteriors for these relations within the Bayesian statistical framework, in order to estimate the posteriors whether a variable is directly relevant or its association is only mediated. With frequentist methods one SNP (rs3751464 in the FRMD6 gene) provided evidence for an association with asthma (OR = 1.43(1.2–1.8); p = 3×10−4). The possible role of the FRMD6 gene in asthma was also confirmed in an animal model and human asthmatics. In the BN-BMLA analysis altogether 5 SNPs in 4 genes were found relevant in connection with asthma phenotype: PRPF19 on chromosome 11, and FRMD6, PTGER2 and PTGDR on chromosome 14. In a subsequent step a partial dataset containing rhinitis and further clinical parameters was used, which allowed the analysis of relevance of SNPs for asthma and multiple targets. These analyses suggested that SNPs in the AHNAK and MS4A2 genes were indirectly associated with asthma. This paper indicates that BN-BMLA explores the relevant factors more comprehensively than traditional statistical methods and extends the scope of strong relevance based methods to include partial relevance, global characterization of relevance and multi-target relevance. PMID:22432035

A Two-Step Bayesian Approach for Propensity Score Analysis: Simulations and Case Study.

PubMed

Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

2012-07-01

A two-step Bayesian propensity score approach is introduced that incorporates prior information in the propensity score equation and outcome equation without the problems associated with simultaneous Bayesian propensity score approaches. The corresponding variance estimators are also provided. The two-step Bayesian propensity score is provided for three methods of implementation: propensity score stratification, weighting, and optimal full matching. Three simulation studies and one case study are presented to elaborate the proposed two-step Bayesian propensity score approach. Results of the simulation studies reveal that greater precision in the propensity score equation yields better recovery of the frequentist-based treatment effect. A slight advantage is shown for the Bayesian approach in small samples. Results also reveal that greater precision around the wrong treatment effect can lead to seriously distorted results. However, greater precision around the correct treatment effect parameter yields quite good results, with slight improvement seen with greater precision in the propensity score equation. A comparison of coverage rates for the conventional frequentist approach and proposed Bayesian approach is also provided. The case study reveals that credible intervals are wider than frequentist confidence intervals when priors are non-informative.

Robust Bayesian Analysis of Heavy-tailed Stochastic Volatility Models using Scale Mixtures of Normal Distributions

PubMed Central

Abanto-Valle, C. A.; Bandyopadhyay, D.; Lachos, V. H.; Enriquez, I.

2009-01-01

A Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility (SV) models using the class of symmetric scale mixtures of normal (SMN) distributions is considered. In the face of non-normality, this provides an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of the normal distribution. Specific distributions examined include the normal, student-t, slash and the variance gamma distributions. Using a Bayesian paradigm, an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is introduced for parameter estimation. Moreover, the mixing parameters obtained as a by-product of the scale mixture representation can be used to identify outliers. The methods developed are applied to analyze daily stock returns data on S&P500 index. Bayesian model selection criteria as well as out-of- sample forecasting results reveal that the SV models based on heavy-tailed SMN distributions provide significant improvement in model fit as well as prediction to the S&P500 index data over the usual normal model. PMID:20730043

Bayesian Analysis of the Association between Family-Level Factors and Siblings' Dental Caries.

PubMed

Wen, A; Weyant, R J; McNeil, D W; Crout, R J; Neiswanger, K; Marazita, M L; Foxman, B

2017-07-01

We conducted a Bayesian analysis of the association between family-level socioeconomic status and smoking and the prevalence of dental caries among siblings (children from infant to 14 y) among children living in rural and urban Northern Appalachia using data from the Center for Oral Health Research in Appalachia (COHRA). The observed proportion of siblings sharing caries was significantly different from predicted assuming siblings' caries status was independent. Using a Bayesian hierarchical model, we found the inclusion of a household factor significantly improved the goodness of fit. Other findings showed an inverse association between parental education and siblings' caries and a positive association between households with smokers and siblings' caries. Our study strengthens existing evidence suggesting that increased parental education and decreased parental cigarette smoking are associated with reduced childhood caries in the household. Our results also demonstrate the value of a Bayesian approach, which allows us to include household as a random effect, thereby providing more accurate estimates than obtained using generalized linear mixed models.

Bayesian generalized least squares regression with application to log Pearson type 3 regional skew estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reis, D. S.; Stedinger, J. R.; Martins, E. S.

2005-10-01

This paper develops a Bayesian approach to analysis of a generalized least squares (GLS) regression model for regional analyses of hydrologic data. The new approach allows computation of the posterior distributions of the parameters and the model error variance using a quasi-analytic approach. Two regional skew estimation studies illustrate the value of the Bayesian GLS approach for regional statistical analysis of a shape parameter and demonstrate that regional skew models can be relatively precise with effective record lengths in excess of 60 years. With Bayesian GLS the marginal posterior distribution of the model error variance and the corresponding mean and variance of the parameters can be computed directly, thereby providing a simple but important extension of the regional GLS regression procedures popularized by Tasker and Stedinger (1989), which is sensitive to the likely values of the model error variance when it is small relative to the sampling error in the at-site estimator.

Bayesian Estimation of the True Prevalence and of the Diagnostic Test Sensitivity and Specificity of Enteropathogenic Yersinia in Finnish Pig Serum Samples.

PubMed

Vilar, M J; Ranta, J; Virtanen, S; Korkeala, H

2015-01-01

Bayesian analysis was used to estimate the pig's and herd's true prevalence of enteropathogenic Yersinia in serum samples collected from Finnish pig farms. The sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test were also estimated for the commercially available ELISA which is used for antibody detection against enteropathogenic Yersinia. The Bayesian analysis was performed in two steps; the first step estimated the prior true prevalence of enteropathogenic Yersinia with data obtained from a systematic review of the literature. In the second step, data of the apparent prevalence (cross-sectional study data), prior true prevalence (first step), and estimated sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods were used for building the Bayesian model. The true prevalence of Yersinia in slaughter-age pigs was 67.5% (95% PI 63.2-70.9). The true prevalence of Yersinia in sows was 74.0% (95% PI 57.3-82.4). The estimates of sensitivity and specificity values of the ELISA were 79.5% and 96.9%.

Is evolutionary biology becoming too politically correct? A reflection on the scala naturae, phylogenetically basal clades, anatomically plesiomorphic taxa, and 'lower' animals.

PubMed

Diogo, Rui; Ziermann, Janine M; Linde-Medina, Marta

2015-05-01

The notion of scala naturae dates back to thinkers such as Aristotle, who placed plants below animals and ranked the latter along a graded scale of complexity from 'lower' to 'higher' animals, such as humans. In the last decades, evolutionary biologists have tended to move from one extreme (i.e. the idea of scala naturae or the existence of a general evolutionary trend in complexity from 'lower' to "higher" taxa, with Homo sapiens as the end stage) to the other, opposite, extreme (i.e. to avoid using terms such as 'phylogenetically basal' and 'anatomically plesiomorphic' taxa, which are seen as the undesired vestige of old teleological theories). The latter view tries to avoid any possible connotations with the original anthropocentric idea of a scala naturae crowned by man and, in that sense, it can be regarded as a more politically correct view. In the past years and months there has been renewed interest in these topics, which have been discussed in various papers and monographs that tend to subscribe, in general, to the points defended in the more politically correct view. Importantly, most evolutionary and phylogenetic studies of tetrapods and other vertebrates, and therefore most discussions on the scala naturae and related issues have been based on hard tissue and, more recently, on molecular data. Here we provide the first discussion of these topics based on a comparative myological study of all the major vertebrate clades and of myological cladistic and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of bony fish and tetrapods, including Primates. We specifically (i) contradict the notions of a scala naturae or evolutionary progressive trends leading to more complexity in 'higher' animals and culminating in Homo sapiens, and (ii) stress that the refutation of these old notions does not necessarily mean that one should not keep using the terms 'phylogenetically basal' and particularly 'anatomically plesiomorphic' to refer to groups such as the urodeles within the Tetrapoda, or the strepsirrhines and lemurs within the Primates, for instance. This review will contribute to improving our understanding of these broad evolutionary issues and of the evolution of the vertebrate Bauplans, and hopefully will stimulate future phylogenetic, evolutionary and developmental studies of these clades. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

A Bayesian Approach to a Multiple-Group Latent Class-Profile Analysis: The Timing of Drinking Onset and Subsequent Drinking Behaviors among U.S. Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chung, Hwan; Anthony, James C.

2013-01-01

This article presents a multiple-group latent class-profile analysis (LCPA) by taking a Bayesian approach in which a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is employed to achieve more robust estimates for latent growth patterns. This article describes and addresses a label-switching problem that involves the LCPA likelihood function, which has…

Bayesian Logic Programs for Plan Recognition and Machine Reading

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-01

models is that they can handle both uncertainty and structured/ relational data. As a result, they are widely used in domains like social network...data. As a result, they are widely used in domains like social net- work analysis, biological data analysis, and natural language processing. Bayesian...the Story Understanding data set. (b) The logical representation of the observations. (c) The set of ground rules obtained from logical abduction

Molecular epidemiology and evolutionary histories of human coronavirus OC43 and HKU1 among patients with upper respiratory tract infections in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

PubMed

Al-Khannaq, Maryam Nabiel; Ng, Kim Tien; Oong, Xiang Yong; Pang, Yong Kek; Takebe, Yutaka; Chook, Jack Bee; Hanafi, Nik Sherina; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Tee, Kok Keng

2016-02-25

Despite the worldwide circulation of human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) and HKU1 (HCoV-HKU1), data on their molecular epidemiology and evolutionary dynamics in the tropical Southeast Asia region is lacking. The study aimed to investigate the genetic diversity, temporal distribution, population history and clinical symptoms of betacoronavirus infections in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia between 2012 and 2013. A total of 2,060 adults presented with acute respiratory symptoms were screened for the presence of betacoronaviruses using multiplex PCR. The spike glycoprotein, nucleocapsid and 1a genes were sequenced for phylogenetic reconstruction and Bayesian coalescent inference. A total of 48/2060 (2.4 %) specimens were tested positive for HCoV-OC43 (1.3 %) and HCoV-HKU1 (1.1 %). Both HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 were co-circulating throughout the year, with the lowest detection rates reported in the October-January period. Phylogenetic analysis of the spike gene showed that the majority of HCoV-OC43 isolates were grouped into two previously undefined genotypes, provisionally assigned as novel lineage 1 and novel lineage 2. Sign of natural recombination was observed in these potentially novel lineages. Location mapping showed that the novel lineage 1 is currently circulating in Malaysia, Thailand, Japan and China, while novel lineage 2 can be found in Malaysia and China. Molecular dating showed the origin of HCoV-OC43 around late 1950s, before it diverged into genotypes A (1960s), B (1990s), and other genotypes (2000s). Phylogenetic analysis revealed that 27.3 % of the HCoV-HKU1 strains belong to genotype A while 72.7 % belongs to genotype B. The tree root of HCoV-HKU1 was similar to that of HCoV-OC43, with the tMRCA of genotypes A and B estimated around the 1990s and 2000s, respectively. Correlation of HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 with the severity of respiratory symptoms was not observed. The present study reported the molecular complexity and evolutionary dynamics of human betacoronaviruses among adults with acute respiratory symptoms in a tropical country. Two novel HCoV-OC43 genetic lineages were identified, warranting further investigation on their genotypic and phenotypic characteristics.

Bayesian Models for Astrophysical Data Using R, JAGS, Python, and Stan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hilbe, Joseph M.; de Souza, Rafael S.; Ishida, Emille E. O.

2017-05-01

This comprehensive guide to Bayesian methods in astronomy enables hands-on work by supplying complete R, JAGS, Python, and Stan code, to use directly or to adapt. It begins by examining the normal model from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives and then progresses to a full range of Bayesian generalized linear and mixed or hierarchical models, as well as additional types of models such as ABC and INLA. The book provides code that is largely unavailable elsewhere and includes details on interpreting and evaluating Bayesian models. Initial discussions offer models in synthetic form so that readers can easily adapt them to their own data; later the models are applied to real astronomical data. The consistent focus is on hands-on modeling, analysis of data, and interpretations that address scientific questions. A must-have for astronomers, its concrete approach will also be attractive to researchers in the sciences more generally.

Toward an ecological analysis of Bayesian inferences: how task characteristics influence responses

PubMed Central

Hafenbrädl, Sebastian; Hoffrage, Ulrich

2015-01-01

In research on Bayesian inferences, the specific tasks, with their narratives and characteristics, are typically seen as exchangeable vehicles that merely transport the structure of the problem to research participants. In the present paper, we explore whether, and possibly how, task characteristics that are usually ignored influence participants’ responses in these tasks. We focus on both quantitative dimensions of the tasks, such as their base rates, hit rates, and false-alarm rates, as well as qualitative characteristics, such as whether the task involves a norm violation or not, whether the stakes are high or low, and whether the focus is on the individual case or on the numbers. Using a data set of 19 different tasks presented to 500 different participants who provided a total of 1,773 responses, we analyze these responses in two ways: first, on the level of the numerical estimates themselves, and second, on the level of various response strategies, Bayesian and non-Bayesian, that might have produced the estimates. We identified various contingencies, and most of the task characteristics had an influence on participants’ responses. Typically, this influence has been stronger when the numerical information in the tasks was presented in terms of probabilities or percentages, compared to natural frequencies – and this effect cannot be fully explained by a higher proportion of Bayesian responses when natural frequencies were used. One characteristic that did not seem to influence participants’ response strategy was the numerical value of the Bayesian solution itself. Our exploratory study is a first step toward an ecological analysis of Bayesian inferences, and highlights new avenues for future research. PMID:26300791

Hip fracture in the elderly: a re-analysis of the EPIDOS study with causal Bayesian networks.

PubMed

Caillet, Pascal; Klemm, Sarah; Ducher, Michel; Aussem, Alexandre; Schott, Anne-Marie

2015-01-01

Hip fractures commonly result in permanent disability, institutionalization or death in elderly. Existing hip-fracture predicting tools are underused in clinical practice, partly due to their lack of intuitive interpretation. By use of a graphical layer, Bayesian network models could increase the attractiveness of fracture prediction tools. Our aim was to study the potential contribution of a causal Bayesian network in this clinical setting. A logistic regression was performed as a standard control approach to check the robustness of the causal Bayesian network approach. EPIDOS is a multicenter study, conducted in an ambulatory care setting in five French cities between 1992 and 1996 and updated in 2010. The study included 7598 women aged 75 years or older, in which fractures were assessed quarterly during 4 years. A causal Bayesian network and a logistic regression were performed on EPIDOS data to describe major variables involved in hip fractures occurrences. Both models had similar association estimations and predictive performances. They detected gait speed and mineral bone density as variables the most involved in the fracture process. The causal Bayesian network showed that gait speed and bone mineral density were directly connected to fracture and seem to mediate the influence of all the other variables included in our model. The logistic regression approach detected multiple interactions involving psychotropic drug use, age and bone mineral density. Both approaches retrieved similar variables as predictors of hip fractures. However, Bayesian network highlighted the whole web of relation between the variables involved in the analysis, suggesting a possible mechanism leading to hip fracture. According to the latter results, intervention focusing concomitantly on gait speed and bone mineral density may be necessary for an optimal prevention of hip fracture occurrence in elderly people.

Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

2017-08-01

Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been developed and widely applied, but there is still room for improvements. Future research in the context of Bayesian flood forecasting should be on assimilation of various sources of newly available information and improvement of predictive performance assessment methods.

Applications of Bayesian Procrustes shape analysis to ensemble radar reflectivity nowcast verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, Neil I.; Micheas, Athanasios C.; Peng, Yuqiang

2016-07-01

This paper introduces the use of Bayesian full Procrustes shape analysis in object-oriented meteorological applications. In particular, the Procrustes methodology is used to generate mean forecast precipitation fields from a set of ensemble forecasts. This approach has advantages over other ensemble averaging techniques in that it can produce a forecast that retains the morphological features of the precipitation structures and present the range of forecast outcomes represented by the ensemble. The production of the ensemble mean avoids the problems of smoothing that result from simple pixel or cell averaging, while producing credible sets that retain information on ensemble spread. Also in this paper, the full Bayesian Procrustes scheme is used as an object verification tool for precipitation forecasts. This is an extension of a previously presented Procrustes shape analysis based verification approach into a full Bayesian format designed to handle the verification of precipitation forecasts that match objects from an ensemble of forecast fields to a single truth image. The methodology is tested on radar reflectivity nowcasts produced in the Warning Decision Support System - Integrated Information (WDSS-II) by varying parameters in the K-means cluster tracking scheme.

Bayesian analysis of non-homogeneous Markov chains: application to mental health data.

PubMed

Sung, Minje; Soyer, Refik; Nhan, Nguyen

2007-07-10

In this paper we present a formal treatment of non-homogeneous Markov chains by introducing a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Our work is motivated by the analysis of correlated categorical data which arise in assessment of psychiatric treatment programs. In our development, we introduce a Markovian structure to describe the non-homogeneity of transition patterns. In doing so, we introduce a logistic regression set-up for Markov chains and incorporate covariates in our model. We present a Bayesian model using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and develop inference procedures to address issues encountered in the analyses of data from psychiatric treatment programs. Our model and inference procedures are implemented to some real data from a psychiatric treatment study. Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A FAST BAYESIAN METHOD FOR UPDATING AND FORECASTING HOURLY OZONE LEVELS

EPA Science Inventory

A Bayesian hierarchical space-time model is proposed by combining information from real-time ambient AIRNow air monitoring data, and output from a computer simulation model known as the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (Eta-CMAQ) forecast model. A model validation analysis shows...

EvoluCode: Evolutionary Barcodes as a Unifying Framework for Multilevel Evolutionary Data.

PubMed

Linard, Benjamin; Nguyen, Ngoc Hoan; Prosdocimi, Francisco; Poch, Olivier; Thompson, Julie D

2012-01-01

Evolutionary systems biology aims to uncover the general trends and principles governing the evolution of biological networks. An essential part of this process is the reconstruction and analysis of the evolutionary histories of these complex, dynamic networks. Unfortunately, the methodologies for representing and exploiting such complex evolutionary histories in large scale studies are currently limited. Here, we propose a new formalism, called EvoluCode (Evolutionary barCode), which allows the integration of different evolutionary parameters (eg, sequence conservation, orthology, synteny …) in a unifying format and facilitates the multilevel analysis and visualization of complex evolutionary histories at the genome scale. The advantages of the approach are demonstrated by constructing barcodes representing the evolution of the complete human proteome. Two large-scale studies are then described: (i) the mapping and visualization of the barcodes on the human chromosomes and (ii) automatic clustering of the barcodes to highlight protein subsets sharing similar evolutionary histories and their functional analysis. The methodologies developed here open the way to the efficient application of other data mining and knowledge extraction techniques in evolutionary systems biology studies. A database containing all EvoluCode data is available at: http://lbgi.igbmc.fr/barcodes.

Uncertainty estimation of a complex water quality model: The influence of Box-Cox transformation on Bayesian approaches and comparison with a non-Bayesian method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freni, Gabriele; Mannina, Giorgio

In urban drainage modelling, uncertainty analysis is of undoubted necessity. However, uncertainty analysis in urban water-quality modelling is still in its infancy and only few studies have been carried out. Therefore, several methodological aspects still need to be experienced and clarified especially regarding water quality modelling. The use of the Bayesian approach for uncertainty analysis has been stimulated by its rigorous theoretical framework and by the possibility of evaluating the impact of new knowledge on the modelling predictions. Nevertheless, the Bayesian approach relies on some restrictive hypotheses that are not present in less formal methods like the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE). One crucial point in the application of Bayesian method is the formulation of a likelihood function that is conditioned by the hypotheses made regarding model residuals. Statistical transformations, such as the use of Box-Cox equation, are generally used to ensure the homoscedasticity of residuals. However, this practice may affect the reliability of the analysis leading to a wrong uncertainty estimation. The present paper aims to explore the influence of the Box-Cox equation for environmental water quality models. To this end, five cases were considered one of which was the “real” residuals distributions (i.e. drawn from available data). The analysis was applied to the Nocella experimental catchment (Italy) which is an agricultural and semi-urbanised basin where two sewer systems, two wastewater treatment plants and a river reach were monitored during both dry and wet weather periods. The results show that the uncertainty estimation is greatly affected by residual transformation and a wrong assumption may also affect the evaluation of model uncertainty. The use of less formal methods always provide an overestimation of modelling uncertainty with respect to Bayesian method but such effect is reduced if a wrong assumption is made regarding the residuals distribution. If residuals are not normally distributed, the uncertainty is over-estimated if Box-Cox transformation is not applied or non-calibrated parameter is used.

Propagation of population pharmacokinetic information using a Bayesian approach: comparison with meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dokoumetzidis, Aristides; Aarons, Leon

2005-08-01

We investigated the propagation of population pharmacokinetic information across clinical studies by applying Bayesian techniques. The aim was to summarize the population pharmacokinetic estimates of a study in appropriate statistical distributions in order to use them as Bayesian priors in consequent population pharmacokinetic analyses. Various data sets of simulated and real clinical data were fitted with WinBUGS, with and without informative priors. The posterior estimates of fittings with non-informative priors were used to build parametric informative priors and the whole procedure was carried on in a consecutive manner. The posterior distributions of the fittings with informative priors where compared to those of the meta-analysis fittings of the respective combinations of data sets. Good agreement was found, for the simulated and experimental datasets when the populations were exchangeable, with the posterior distribution from the fittings with the prior to be nearly identical to the ones estimated with meta-analysis. However, when populations were not exchangeble an alternative parametric form for the prior, the natural conjugate prior, had to be used in order to have consistent results. In conclusion, the results of a population pharmacokinetic analysis may be summarized in Bayesian prior distributions that can be used consecutively with other analyses. The procedure is an alternative to meta-analysis and gives comparable results. It has the advantage that it is faster than the meta-analysis, due to the large datasets used with the latter and can be performed when the data included in the prior are not actually available.

A Development of Nonstationary Regional Frequency Analysis Model with Large-scale Climate Information: Its Application to Korean Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jin-Young; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Kim, Hung-Soo

2015-04-01

The existing regional frequency analysis has disadvantages in that it is difficult to consider geographical characteristics in estimating areal rainfall. In this regard, this study aims to develop a hierarchical Bayesian model based nonstationary regional frequency analysis in that spatial patterns of the design rainfall with geographical information (e.g. latitude, longitude and altitude) are explicitly incorporated. This study assumes that the parameters of Gumbel (or GEV distribution) are a function of geographical characteristics within a general linear regression framework. Posterior distribution of the regression parameters are estimated by Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, and the identified functional relationship is used to spatially interpolate the parameters of the distributions by using digital elevation models (DEM) as inputs. The proposed model is applied to derive design rainfalls over the entire Han-river watershed. It was found that the proposed Bayesian regional frequency analysis model showed similar results compared to L-moment based regional frequency analysis. In addition, the model showed an advantage in terms of quantifying uncertainty of the design rainfall and estimating the area rainfall considering geographical information. Finally, comprehensive discussion on design rainfall in the context of nonstationary will be presented. KEYWORDS: Regional frequency analysis, Nonstationary, Spatial information, Bayesian Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Population Genetics of the São Tomé Caecilian (Gymnophiona: Dermophiidae: Schistometopum thomense) Reveals Strong Geographic Structuring

PubMed Central

Stoelting, Ricka E.; Measey, G. John; Drewes, Robert C.

2014-01-01

Islands provide exciting opportunities for exploring ecological and evolutionary mechanisms. The oceanic island of São Tomé in the Gulf of Guinea exhibits high diversity of fauna including the endemic caecilian amphibian, Schistometopum thomense. Variation in pigmentation, morphology and size of this taxon over its c. 45 km island range is extreme, motivating a number of taxonomic, ecological, and evolutionary hypotheses to explain the observed diversity. We conducted a population genetic study of S. thomense using partial sequences of two mitochondrial DNA genes (ND4 and 16S), together with morphological examination, to address competing hypotheses of taxonomic or clinal variation. Using Bayesian phylogenetic analysis and Spatial Analysis of Molecular Variance, we found evidence of four geographic clades, whose range and approximated age (c. 253 Kya – 27 Kya) are consistent with the spread and age of recent volcanic flows. These clades explained 90% of variation in ND4 (φCT = 0.892), and diverged by 4.3% minimum pairwise distance at the deepest node. Most notably, using Mismatch Distributions and Mantel Tests, we identified a zone of population admixture that dissected the island. In the northern clade, we found evidence of recent population expansion (Fu's Fs = −13.08 and Tajima's D = −1.80) and limited dispersal (Mantel correlation coefficient = 0.36, p = 0.01). Color assignment to clades was not absolute. Paired with multinomial regression of chromatic data, our analyses suggested that the genetic groups and a latitudinal gradient together describe variation in color of S. thomense. We propose that volcanism and limited dispersal ability are the likely proximal causes of the observed genetic structure. This is the first population genetic study of any caecilian and demonstrates that these animals have deep genetic divisions over very small areas in accordance with previous speculations of low dispersal abilities. PMID:25171066

Genetic Diversity and Demographic History of Wild and Cultivated/Naturalised Plant Populations: Evidence from Dalmatian Sage (Salvia officinalis L., Lamiaceae).

PubMed

Rešetnik, Ivana; Baričevič, Dea; Batîr Rusu, Diana; Carović-Stanko, Klaudija; Chatzopoulou, Paschalina; Dajić-Stevanović, Zora; Gonceariuc, Maria; Grdiša, Martina; Greguraš, Danijela; Ibraliu, Alban; Jug-Dujaković, Marija; Krasniqi, Elez; Liber, Zlatko; Murtić, Senad; Pećanac, Dragana; Radosavljević, Ivan; Stefkov, Gjoshe; Stešević, Danijela; Šoštarić, Ivan; Šatović, Zlatko

2016-01-01

Dalmatian sage (Salvia officinalis L., Lamiaceae) is a well-known aromatic and medicinal Mediterranean plant that is native in coastal regions of the western Balkan and southern Apennine Peninsulas and is commonly cultivated worldwide. It is widely used in the food, pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries. Knowledge of its genetic diversity and spatiotemporal patterns is important for plant breeding programmes and conservation. We used eight microsatellite markers to investigate evolutionary history of indigenous populations as well as genetic diversity and structure within and among indigenous and cultivated/naturalised populations distributed across the Balkan Peninsula. The results showed a clear separation between the indigenous and cultivated/naturalised groups, with the cultivated material originating from one restricted geographical area. Most of the genetic diversity in both groups was attributable to differences among individuals within populations, although spatial genetic analysis of indigenous populations indicated the existence of isolation by distance. Geographical structuring of indigenous populations was found using clustering analysis, with three sub-clusters of indigenous populations. The highest level of gene diversity and the greatest number of private alleles were found in the central part of the eastern Adriatic coast, while decreases in gene diversity and number of private alleles were evident towards the northwestern Adriatic coast and southern and eastern regions of the Balkan Peninsula. The results of Ecological Niche Modelling during Last Glacial Maximum and Approximate Bayesian Computation suggested two plausible evolutionary trajectories: 1) the species survived in the glacial refugium in southern Adriatic coastal region with subsequent colonization events towards northern, eastern and southern Balkan Peninsula; 2) species survived in several refugia exhibiting concurrent divergence into three genetic groups. The insight into genetic diversity and structure also provide the baseline data for conservation of S. officinalis genetic resources valuable for future breeding programmes.

Genetic Diversity and Demographic History of Wild and Cultivated/Naturalised Plant Populations: Evidence from Dalmatian Sage (Salvia officinalis L., Lamiaceae)

PubMed Central

Rešetnik, Ivana; Baričevič, Dea; Batîr Rusu, Diana; Carović-Stanko, Klaudija; Chatzopoulou, Paschalina; Dajić-Stevanović, Zora; Gonceariuc, Maria; Grdiša, Martina; Greguraš, Danijela; Ibraliu, Alban; Jug-Dujaković, Marija; Krasniqi, Elez; Liber, Zlatko; Murtić, Senad; Pećanac, Dragana; Radosavljević, Ivan; Stefkov, Gjoshe; Stešević, Danijela; Šoštarić, Ivan; Šatović, Zlatko

2016-01-01

Dalmatian sage (Salvia officinalis L., Lamiaceae) is a well-known aromatic and medicinal Mediterranean plant that is native in coastal regions of the western Balkan and southern Apennine Peninsulas and is commonly cultivated worldwide. It is widely used in the food, pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries. Knowledge of its genetic diversity and spatiotemporal patterns is important for plant breeding programmes and conservation. We used eight microsatellite markers to investigate evolutionary history of indigenous populations as well as genetic diversity and structure within and among indigenous and cultivated/naturalised populations distributed across the Balkan Peninsula. The results showed a clear separation between the indigenous and cultivated/naturalised groups, with the cultivated material originating from one restricted geographical area. Most of the genetic diversity in both groups was attributable to differences among individuals within populations, although spatial genetic analysis of indigenous populations indicated the existence of isolation by distance. Geographical structuring of indigenous populations was found using clustering analysis, with three sub-clusters of indigenous populations. The highest level of gene diversity and the greatest number of private alleles were found in the central part of the eastern Adriatic coast, while decreases in gene diversity and number of private alleles were evident towards the northwestern Adriatic coast and southern and eastern regions of the Balkan Peninsula. The results of Ecological Niche Modelling during Last Glacial Maximum and Approximate Bayesian Computation suggested two plausible evolutionary trajectories: 1) the species survived in the glacial refugium in southern Adriatic coastal region with subsequent colonization events towards northern, eastern and southern Balkan Peninsula; 2) species survived in several refugia exhibiting concurrent divergence into three genetic groups. The insight into genetic diversity and structure also provide the baseline data for conservation of S. officinalis genetic resources valuable for future breeding programmes. PMID:27441834

Major Radiations in the Evolution of Caviid Rodents: Reconciling Fossils, Ghost Lineages, and Relaxed Molecular Clocks

PubMed Central

Pérez, María Encarnación; Pol, Diego

2012-01-01

Background Caviidae is a diverse group of caviomorph rodents that is broadly distributed in South America and is divided into three highly divergent extant lineages: Caviinae (cavies), Dolichotinae (maras), and Hydrochoerinae (capybaras). The fossil record of Caviidae is only abundant and diverse since the late Miocene. Caviids belongs to Cavioidea sensu stricto (Cavioidea s.s.) that also includes a diverse assemblage of extinct taxa recorded from the late Oligocene to the middle Miocene of South America (“eocardiids”). Results A phylogenetic analysis combining morphological and molecular data is presented here, evaluating the time of diversification of selected nodes based on the calibration of phylogenetic trees with fossil taxa and the use of relaxed molecular clocks. This analysis reveals three major phases of diversification in the evolutionary history of Cavioidea s.s. The first two phases involve two successive radiations of extinct lineages that occurred during the late Oligocene and the early Miocene. The third phase consists of the diversification of Caviidae. The initial split of caviids is dated as middle Miocene by the fossil record. This date falls within the 95% higher probability distribution estimated by the relaxed Bayesian molecular clock, although the mean age estimate ages are 3.5 to 7 Myr older. The initial split of caviids is followed by an obscure period of poor fossil record (refered here as the Mayoan gap) and then by the appearance of highly differentiated modern lineages of caviids, which evidentially occurred at the late Miocene as indicated by both the fossil record and molecular clock estimates. Conclusions The integrated approach used here allowed us identifying the agreements and discrepancies of the fossil record and molecular clock estimates on the timing of the major events in cavioid evolution, revealing evolutionary patterns that would not have been possible to gather using only molecular or paleontological data alone. PMID:23144757