Probabilistic Models and Generative Neural Networks: Towards an Unified Framework for Modeling Normal and Impaired Neurocognitive Functions.

PubMed

Testolin, Alberto; Zorzi, Marco

2016-01-01

Connectionist models can be characterized within the more general framework of probabilistic graphical models, which allow to efficiently describe complex statistical distributions involving a large number of interacting variables. This integration allows building more realistic computational models of cognitive functions, which more faithfully reflect the underlying neural mechanisms at the same time providing a useful bridge to higher-level descriptions in terms of Bayesian computations. Here we discuss a powerful class of graphical models that can be implemented as stochastic, generative neural networks. These models overcome many limitations associated with classic connectionist models, for example by exploiting unsupervised learning in hierarchical architectures (deep networks) and by taking into account top-down, predictive processing supported by feedback loops. We review some recent cognitive models based on generative networks, and we point out promising research directions to investigate neuropsychological disorders within this approach. Though further efforts are required in order to fill the gap between structured Bayesian models and more realistic, biophysical models of neuronal dynamics, we argue that generative neural networks have the potential to bridge these levels of analysis, thereby improving our understanding of the neural bases of cognition and of pathologies caused by brain damage.

Probabilistic Graphical Model Representation in Phylogenetics

PubMed Central

Höhna, Sebastian; Heath, Tracy A.; Boussau, Bastien; Landis, Michael J.; Ronquist, Fredrik; Huelsenbeck, John P.

2014-01-01

Recent years have seen a rapid expansion of the model space explored in statistical phylogenetics, emphasizing the need for new approaches to statistical model representation and software development. Clear communication and representation of the chosen model is crucial for: (i) reproducibility of an analysis, (ii) model development, and (iii) software design. Moreover, a unified, clear and understandable framework for model representation lowers the barrier for beginners and nonspecialists to grasp complex phylogenetic models, including their assumptions and parameter/variable dependencies. Graphical modeling is a unifying framework that has gained in popularity in the statistical literature in recent years. The core idea is to break complex models into conditionally independent distributions. The strength lies in the comprehensibility, flexibility, and adaptability of this formalism, and the large body of computational work based on it. Graphical models are well-suited to teach statistical models, to facilitate communication among phylogeneticists and in the development of generic software for simulation and statistical inference. Here, we provide an introduction to graphical models for phylogeneticists and extend the standard graphical model representation to the realm of phylogenetics. We introduce a new graphical model component, tree plates, to capture the changing structure of the subgraph corresponding to a phylogenetic tree. We describe a range of phylogenetic models using the graphical model framework and introduce modules to simplify the representation of standard components in large and complex models. Phylogenetic model graphs can be readily used in simulation, maximum likelihood inference, and Bayesian inference using, for example, Metropolis–Hastings or Gibbs sampling of the posterior distribution. [Computation; graphical models; inference; modularization; statistical phylogenetics; tree plate.] PMID:24951559

Program SPACECAP: software for estimating animal density using spatially explicit capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hines, James E.; Singh, Pallavi; Jathanna, Devcharan; Kumar, N. Samba; Karanth, K. Ullas

2012-01-01

1. The advent of spatially explicit capture-recapture models is changing the way ecologists analyse capture-recapture data. However, the advantages offered by these new models are not fully exploited because they can be difficult to implement. 2. To address this need, we developed a user-friendly software package, created within the R programming environment, called SPACECAP. This package implements Bayesian spatially explicit hierarchical models to analyse spatial capture-recapture data. 3. Given that a large number of field biologists prefer software with graphical user interfaces for analysing their data, SPACECAP is particularly useful as a tool to increase the adoption of Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture methods in practice.

Boosting Probabilistic Graphical Model Inference by Incorporating Prior Knowledge from Multiple Sources

PubMed Central

Praveen, Paurush; Fröhlich, Holger

2013-01-01

Inferring regulatory networks from experimental data via probabilistic graphical models is a popular framework to gain insights into biological systems. However, the inherent noise in experimental data coupled with a limited sample size reduces the performance of network reverse engineering. Prior knowledge from existing sources of biological information can address this low signal to noise problem by biasing the network inference towards biologically plausible network structures. Although integrating various sources of information is desirable, their heterogeneous nature makes this task challenging. We propose two computational methods to incorporate various information sources into a probabilistic consensus structure prior to be used in graphical model inference. Our first model, called Latent Factor Model (LFM), assumes a high degree of correlation among external information sources and reconstructs a hidden variable as a common source in a Bayesian manner. The second model, a Noisy-OR, picks up the strongest support for an interaction among information sources in a probabilistic fashion. Our extensive computational studies on KEGG signaling pathways as well as on gene expression data from breast cancer and yeast heat shock response reveal that both approaches can significantly enhance the reconstruction accuracy of Bayesian Networks compared to other competing methods as well as to the situation without any prior. Our framework allows for using diverse information sources, like pathway databases, GO terms and protein domain data, etc. and is flexible enough to integrate new sources, if available. PMID:23826291

Comparative evaluation of reverse engineering gene regulatory networks with relevance networks, graphical gaussian models and bayesian networks.

PubMed

Werhli, Adriano V; Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

2006-10-15

An important problem in systems biology is the inference of biochemical pathways and regulatory networks from postgenomic data. Various reverse engineering methods have been proposed in the literature, and it is important to understand their relative merits and shortcomings. In the present paper, we compare the accuracy of reconstructing gene regulatory networks with three different modelling and inference paradigms: (1) Relevance networks (RNs): pairwise association scores independent of the remaining network; (2) graphical Gaussian models (GGMs): undirected graphical models with constraint-based inference, and (3) Bayesian networks (BNs): directed graphical models with score-based inference. The evaluation is carried out on the Raf pathway, a cellular signalling network describing the interaction of 11 phosphorylated proteins and phospholipids in human immune system cells. We use both laboratory data from cytometry experiments as well as data simulated from the gold-standard network. We also compare passive observations with active interventions. On Gaussian observational data, BNs and GGMs were found to outperform RNs. The difference in performance was not significant for the non-linear simulated data and the cytoflow data, though. Also, we did not observe a significant difference between BNs and GGMs on observational data in general. However, for interventional data, BNs outperform GGMs and RNs, especially when taking the edge directions rather than just the skeletons of the graphs into account. This suggests that the higher computational costs of inference with BNs over GGMs and RNs are not justified when using only passive observations, but that active interventions in the form of gene knockouts and over-expressions are required to exploit the full potential of BNs. Data, software and supplementary material are available from http://www.bioss.sari.ac.uk/staff/adriano/research.html

Bayesian networks of age estimation and classification based on dental evidence: A study on the third molar mineralization.

PubMed

Sironi, Emanuele; Pinchi, Vilma; Pradella, Francesco; Focardi, Martina; Bozza, Silvia; Taroni, Franco

2018-04-01

Not only does the Bayesian approach offer a rational and logical environment for evidence evaluation in a forensic framework, but it also allows scientists to coherently deal with uncertainty related to a collection of multiple items of evidence, due to its flexible nature. Such flexibility might come at the expense of elevated computational complexity, which can be handled by using specific probabilistic graphical tools, namely Bayesian networks. In the current work, such probabilistic tools are used for evaluating dental evidence related to the development of third molars. A set of relevant properties characterizing the graphical models are discussed and Bayesian networks are implemented to deal with the inferential process laying beyond the estimation procedure, as well as to provide age estimates. Such properties include operationality, flexibility, coherence, transparence and sensitivity. A data sample composed of Italian subjects was employed for the analysis; results were in agreement with previous studies in terms of point estimate and age classification. The influence of the prior probability elicitation in terms of Bayesian estimate and classifies was also analyzed. Findings also supported the opportunity to take into consideration multiple teeth in the evaluative procedure, since it can be shown this results in an increased robustness towards the prior probability elicitation process, as well as in more favorable outcomes from a forensic perspective. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Revealing the ISO/IEC 9126-1 Clique Tree for COTS Software Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, A. Terry

2007-01-01

Previous research has shown that acyclic dependency models, if they exist, can be extracted from software quality standards and that these models can be used to assess software safety and product quality. In the case of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) software, the extracted dependency model can be used in a probabilistic Bayesian network context for COTS software evaluation. Furthermore, while experts typically employ Bayesian networks to encode domain knowledge, secondary structures (clique trees) from Bayesian network graphs can be used to determine the probabilistic distribution of any software variable (attribute) using any clique that contains that variable. Secondary structures, therefore, provide insight into the fundamental nature of graphical networks. This paper will apply secondary structure calculations to reveal the clique tree of the acyclic dependency model extracted from the ISO/IEC 9126-1 software quality standard. Suggestions will be provided to describe how the clique tree may be exploited to aid efficient transformation of an evaluation model.

Investigating Psychometric Isomorphism for Traditional and Performance-Based Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fay, Derek M.; Levy, Roy; Mehta, Vandhana

2018-01-01

A common practice in educational assessment is to construct multiple forms of an assessment that consists of tasks with similar psychometric properties. This study utilizes a Bayesian multilevel item response model and descriptive graphical representations to evaluate the psychometric similarity of variations of the same task. These approaches for…

A Bayesian joint probability modeling approach for seasonal forecasting of streamflows at multiple sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, D. E.; Chiew, F. H. S.

2009-05-01

Seasonal forecasting of streamflows can be highly valuable for water resources management. In this paper, a Bayesian joint probability (BJP) modeling approach for seasonal forecasting of streamflows at multiple sites is presented. A Box-Cox transformed multivariate normal distribution is proposed to model the joint distribution of future streamflows and their predictors such as antecedent streamflows and El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices and other climate indicators. Bayesian inference of model parameters and uncertainties is implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, leading to joint probabilistic forecasts of streamflows at multiple sites. The model provides a parametric structure for quantifying relationships between variables, including intersite correlations. The Box-Cox transformed multivariate normal distribution has considerable flexibility for modeling a wide range of predictors and predictands. The Bayesian inference formulated allows the use of data that contain nonconcurrent and missing records. The model flexibility and data-handling ability means that the BJP modeling approach is potentially of wide practical application. The paper also presents a number of statistical measures and graphical methods for verification of probabilistic forecasts of continuous variables. Results for streamflows at three river gauges in the Murrumbidgee River catchment in southeast Australia show that the BJP modeling approach has good forecast quality and that the fitted model is consistent with observed data.

Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

2016-08-01

Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

Bayesian outcome-based strategy classification.

PubMed

Lee, Michael D

2016-03-01

Hilbig and Moshagen (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21, 1431-1443, 2014) recently developed a method for making inferences about the decision processes people use in multi-attribute forced choice tasks. Their paper makes a number of worthwhile theoretical and methodological contributions. Theoretically, they provide an insightful psychological motivation for a probabilistic extension of the widely-used "weighted additive" (WADD) model, and show how this model, as well as other important models like "take-the-best" (TTB), can and should be expressed in terms of meaningful priors. Methodologically, they develop an inference approach based on the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principles that balances both the goodness-of-fit and complexity of the decision models they consider. This paper aims to preserve these useful contributions, but provide a complementary Bayesian approach with some theoretical and methodological advantages. We develop a simple graphical model, implemented in JAGS, that allows for fully Bayesian inferences about which models people use to make decisions. To demonstrate the Bayesian approach, we apply it to the models and data considered by Hilbig and Moshagen (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21, 1431-1443, 2014), showing how a prior predictive analysis of the models, and posterior inferences about which models people use and the parameter settings at which they use them, can contribute to our understanding of human decision making.

Application of dynamic uncertain causality graph in spacecraft fault diagnosis: Logic cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Quanying; Zhang, Qin; Liu, Peng; Yang, Ping; Zhu, Ma; Wang, Xiaochen

2017-04-01

Intelligent diagnosis system are applied to fault diagnosis in spacecraft. Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph (DUCG) is a new probability graphic model with many advantages. In the knowledge expression of spacecraft fault diagnosis, feedback among variables is frequently encountered, which may cause directed cyclic graphs (DCGs). Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) such as bayesian network (BN) have been widely applied in uncertain causality representation and probabilistic reasoning, but BN does not allow DCGs. In this paper, DUGG is applied to fault diagnosis in spacecraft: introducing the inference algorithm for the DUCG to deal with feedback. Now, DUCG has been tested in 16 typical faults with 100% diagnosis accuracy.

Age estimation by assessment of pulp chamber volume: a Bayesian network for the evaluation of dental evidence.

PubMed

Sironi, Emanuele; Taroni, Franco; Baldinotti, Claudio; Nardi, Cosimo; Norelli, Gian-Aristide; Gallidabino, Matteo; Pinchi, Vilma

2017-11-14

The present study aimed to investigate the performance of a Bayesian method in the evaluation of dental age-related evidence collected by means of a geometrical approximation procedure of the pulp chamber volume. Measurement of this volume was based on three-dimensional cone beam computed tomography images. The Bayesian method was applied by means of a probabilistic graphical model, namely a Bayesian network. Performance of that method was investigated in terms of accuracy and bias of the decisional outcomes. Influence of an informed elicitation of the prior belief of chronological age was also studied by means of a sensitivity analysis. Outcomes in terms of accuracy were adequate with standard requirements for forensic adult age estimation. Findings also indicated that the Bayesian method does not show a particular tendency towards under- or overestimation of the age variable. Outcomes of the sensitivity analysis showed that results on estimation are improved with a ration elicitation of the prior probabilities of age.

Incorporating networks in a probabilistic graphical model to find drivers for complex human diseases.

PubMed

Mezlini, Aziz M; Goldenberg, Anna

2017-10-01

Discovering genetic mechanisms driving complex diseases is a hard problem. Existing methods often lack power to identify the set of responsible genes. Protein-protein interaction networks have been shown to boost power when detecting gene-disease associations. We introduce a Bayesian framework, Conflux, to find disease associated genes from exome sequencing data using networks as a prior. There are two main advantages to using networks within a probabilistic graphical model. First, networks are noisy and incomplete, a substantial impediment to gene discovery. Incorporating networks into the structure of a probabilistic models for gene inference has less impact on the solution than relying on the noisy network structure directly. Second, using a Bayesian framework we can keep track of the uncertainty of each gene being associated with the phenotype rather than returning a fixed list of genes. We first show that using networks clearly improves gene detection compared to individual gene testing. We then show consistently improved performance of Conflux compared to the state-of-the-art diffusion network-based method Hotnet2 and a variety of other network and variant aggregation methods, using randomly generated and literature-reported gene sets. We test Hotnet2 and Conflux on several network configurations to reveal biases and patterns of false positives and false negatives in each case. Our experiments show that our novel Bayesian framework Conflux incorporates many of the advantages of the current state-of-the-art methods, while offering more flexibility and improved power in many gene-disease association scenarios.

How to interpret the results of medical time series data analysis: Classical statistical approaches versus dynamic Bayesian network modeling.

PubMed

Onisko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J; Austin, R Marshall

2016-01-01

Classical statistics is a well-established approach in the analysis of medical data. While the medical community seems to be familiar with the concept of a statistical analysis and its interpretation, the Bayesian approach, argued by many of its proponents to be superior to the classical frequentist approach, is still not well-recognized in the analysis of medical data. The goal of this study is to encourage data analysts to use the Bayesian approach, such as modeling with graphical probabilistic networks, as an insightful alternative to classical statistical analysis of medical data. This paper offers a comparison of two approaches to analysis of medical time series data: (1) classical statistical approach, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and (2) dynamic Bayesian network modeling. Our comparison is based on time series cervical cancer screening data collected at Magee-Womens Hospital, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center over 10 years. The main outcomes of our comparison are cervical cancer risk assessments produced by the three approaches. However, our analysis discusses also several aspects of the comparison, such as modeling assumptions, model building, dealing with incomplete data, individualized risk assessment, results interpretation, and model validation. Our study shows that the Bayesian approach is (1) much more flexible in terms of modeling effort, and (2) it offers an individualized risk assessment, which is more cumbersome for classical statistical approaches.

bnstruct: an R package for Bayesian Network structure learning in the presence of missing data.

PubMed

Franzin, Alberto; Sambo, Francesco; Di Camillo, Barbara

2017-04-15

A Bayesian Network is a probabilistic graphical model that encodes probabilistic dependencies between a set of random variables. We introduce bnstruct, an open source R package to (i) learn the structure and the parameters of a Bayesian Network from data in the presence of missing values and (ii) perform reasoning and inference on the learned Bayesian Networks. To the best of our knowledge, there is no other open source software that provides methods for all of these tasks, particularly the manipulation of missing data, which is a common situation in practice. The software is implemented in R and C and is available on CRAN under a GPL licence. francesco.sambo@unipd.it. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Quantum Graphical Models and Belief Propagation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leifer, M.S.; Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics, 31 Caroline Street North, Waterloo Ont., N2L 2Y5; Poulin, D.

Belief Propagation algorithms acting on Graphical Models of classical probability distributions, such as Markov Networks, Factor Graphs and Bayesian Networks, are amongst the most powerful known methods for deriving probabilistic inferences amongst large numbers of random variables. This paper presents a generalization of these concepts and methods to the quantum case, based on the idea that quantum theory can be thought of as a noncommutative, operator-valued, generalization of classical probability theory. Some novel characterizations of quantum conditional independence are derived, and definitions of Quantum n-Bifactor Networks, Markov Networks, Factor Graphs and Bayesian Networks are proposed. The structure of Quantum Markovmore » Networks is investigated and some partial characterization results are obtained, along the lines of the Hammersley-Clifford theorem. A Quantum Belief Propagation algorithm is presented and is shown to converge on 1-Bifactor Networks and Markov Networks when the underlying graph is a tree. The use of Quantum Belief Propagation as a heuristic algorithm in cases where it is not known to converge is discussed. Applications to decoding quantum error correcting codes and to the simulation of many-body quantum systems are described.« less

A menu-driven software package of Bayesian nonparametric (and parametric) mixed models for regression analysis and density estimation.

PubMed

Karabatsos, George

2017-02-01

Most of applied statistics involves regression analysis of data. In practice, it is important to specify a regression model that has minimal assumptions which are not violated by data, to ensure that statistical inferences from the model are informative and not misleading. This paper presents a stand-alone and menu-driven software package, Bayesian Regression: Nonparametric and Parametric Models, constructed from MATLAB Compiler. Currently, this package gives the user a choice from 83 Bayesian models for data analysis. They include 47 Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) infinite-mixture regression models; 5 BNP infinite-mixture models for density estimation; and 31 normal random effects models (HLMs), including normal linear models. Each of the 78 regression models handles either a continuous, binary, or ordinal dependent variable, and can handle multi-level (grouped) data. All 83 Bayesian models can handle the analysis of weighted observations (e.g., for meta-analysis), and the analysis of left-censored, right-censored, and/or interval-censored data. Each BNP infinite-mixture model has a mixture distribution assigned one of various BNP prior distributions, including priors defined by either the Dirichlet process, Pitman-Yor process (including the normalized stable process), beta (two-parameter) process, normalized inverse-Gaussian process, geometric weights prior, dependent Dirichlet process, or the dependent infinite-probits prior. The software user can mouse-click to select a Bayesian model and perform data analysis via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. After the sampling completes, the software automatically opens text output that reports MCMC-based estimates of the model's posterior distribution and model predictive fit to the data. Additional text and/or graphical output can be generated by mouse-clicking other menu options. This includes output of MCMC convergence analyses, and estimates of the model's posterior predictive distribution, for selected functionals and values of covariates. The software is illustrated through the BNP regression analysis of real data.

Probabilistic Inference in General Graphical Models through Sampling in Stochastic Networks of Spiking Neurons

PubMed Central

Pecevski, Dejan; Buesing, Lars; Maass, Wolfgang

2011-01-01

An important open problem of computational neuroscience is the generic organization of computations in networks of neurons in the brain. We show here through rigorous theoretical analysis that inherent stochastic features of spiking neurons, in combination with simple nonlinear computational operations in specific network motifs and dendritic arbors, enable networks of spiking neurons to carry out probabilistic inference through sampling in general graphical models. In particular, it enables them to carry out probabilistic inference in Bayesian networks with converging arrows (“explaining away”) and with undirected loops, that occur in many real-world tasks. Ubiquitous stochastic features of networks of spiking neurons, such as trial-to-trial variability and spontaneous activity, are necessary ingredients of the underlying computational organization. We demonstrate through computer simulations that this approach can be scaled up to neural emulations of probabilistic inference in fairly large graphical models, yielding some of the most complex computations that have been carried out so far in networks of spiking neurons. PMID:22219717

Models and simulation of 3D neuronal dendritic trees using Bayesian networks.

PubMed

López-Cruz, Pedro L; Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro; Benavides-Piccione, Ruth; DeFelipe, Javier

2011-12-01

Neuron morphology is crucial for neuronal connectivity and brain information processing. Computational models are important tools for studying dendritic morphology and its role in brain function. We applied a class of probabilistic graphical models called Bayesian networks to generate virtual dendrites from layer III pyramidal neurons from three different regions of the neocortex of the mouse. A set of 41 morphological variables were measured from the 3D reconstructions of real dendrites and their probability distributions used in a machine learning algorithm to induce the model from the data. A simulation algorithm is also proposed to obtain new dendrites by sampling values from Bayesian networks. The main advantage of this approach is that it takes into account and automatically locates the relationships between variables in the data instead of using predefined dependencies. Therefore, the methodology can be applied to any neuronal class while at the same time exploiting class-specific properties. Also, a Bayesian network was defined for each part of the dendrite, allowing the relationships to change in the different sections and to model heterogeneous developmental factors or spatial influences. Several univariate statistical tests and a novel multivariate test based on Kullback-Leibler divergence estimation confirmed that virtual dendrites were similar to real ones. The analyses of the models showed relationships that conform to current neuroanatomical knowledge and support model correctness. At the same time, studying the relationships in the models can help to identify new interactions between variables related to dendritic morphology.

Hip fracture in the elderly: a re-analysis of the EPIDOS study with causal Bayesian networks.

PubMed

Caillet, Pascal; Klemm, Sarah; Ducher, Michel; Aussem, Alexandre; Schott, Anne-Marie

2015-01-01

Hip fractures commonly result in permanent disability, institutionalization or death in elderly. Existing hip-fracture predicting tools are underused in clinical practice, partly due to their lack of intuitive interpretation. By use of a graphical layer, Bayesian network models could increase the attractiveness of fracture prediction tools. Our aim was to study the potential contribution of a causal Bayesian network in this clinical setting. A logistic regression was performed as a standard control approach to check the robustness of the causal Bayesian network approach. EPIDOS is a multicenter study, conducted in an ambulatory care setting in five French cities between 1992 and 1996 and updated in 2010. The study included 7598 women aged 75 years or older, in which fractures were assessed quarterly during 4 years. A causal Bayesian network and a logistic regression were performed on EPIDOS data to describe major variables involved in hip fractures occurrences. Both models had similar association estimations and predictive performances. They detected gait speed and mineral bone density as variables the most involved in the fracture process. The causal Bayesian network showed that gait speed and bone mineral density were directly connected to fracture and seem to mediate the influence of all the other variables included in our model. The logistic regression approach detected multiple interactions involving psychotropic drug use, age and bone mineral density. Both approaches retrieved similar variables as predictors of hip fractures. However, Bayesian network highlighted the whole web of relation between the variables involved in the analysis, suggesting a possible mechanism leading to hip fracture. According to the latter results, intervention focusing concomitantly on gait speed and bone mineral density may be necessary for an optimal prevention of hip fracture occurrence in elderly people.

F-MAP: A Bayesian approach to infer the gene regulatory network using external hints

PubMed Central

Shahdoust, Maryam; Mahjub, Hossein; Sadeghi, Mehdi

2017-01-01

The Common topological features of related species gene regulatory networks suggest reconstruction of the network of one species by using the further information from gene expressions profile of related species. We present an algorithm to reconstruct the gene regulatory network named; F-MAP, which applies the knowledge about gene interactions from related species. Our algorithm sets a Bayesian framework to estimate the precision matrix of one species microarray gene expressions dataset to infer the Gaussian Graphical model of the network. The conjugate Wishart prior is used and the information from related species is applied to estimate the hyperparameters of the prior distribution by using the factor analysis. Applying the proposed algorithm on six related species of drosophila shows that the precision of reconstructed networks is improved considerably compared to the precision of networks constructed by other Bayesian approaches. PMID:28938012

Stochastic DT-MRI connectivity mapping on the GPU.

PubMed

McGraw, Tim; Nadar, Mariappan

2007-01-01

We present a method for stochastic fiber tract mapping from diffusion tensor MRI (DT-MRI) implemented on graphics hardware. From the simulated fibers we compute a connectivity map that gives an indication of the probability that two points in the dataset are connected by a neuronal fiber path. A Bayesian formulation of the fiber model is given and it is shown that the inversion method can be used to construct plausible connectivity. An implementation of this fiber model on the graphics processing unit (GPU) is presented. Since the fiber paths can be stochastically generated independently of one another, the algorithm is highly parallelizable. This allows us to exploit the data-parallel nature of the GPU fragment processors. We also present a framework for the connectivity computation on the GPU. Our implementation allows the user to interactively select regions of interest and observe the evolving connectivity results during computation. Results are presented from the stochastic generation of over 250,000 fiber steps per iteration at interactive frame rates on consumer-grade graphics hardware.

Data-driven Modeling of Metal-oxide Sensors with Dynamic Bayesian Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gosangi, Rakesh; Gutierrez-Osuna, Ricardo

2011-09-01

We present a data-driven probabilistic framework to model the transient response of MOX sensors modulated with a sequence of voltage steps. Analytical models of MOX sensors are usually built based on the physico-chemical properties of the sensing materials. Although building these models provides an insight into the sensor behavior, they also require a thorough understanding of the underlying operating principles. Here we propose a data-driven approach to characterize the dynamical relationship between sensor inputs and outputs. Namely, we use dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), probabilistic models that represent temporal relations between a set of random variables. We identify a set of control variables that influence the sensor responses, create a graphical representation that captures the causal relations between these variables, and finally train the model with experimental data. We validated the approach on experimental data in terms of predictive accuracy and classification performance. Our results show that DBNs can accurately predict the dynamic response of MOX sensors, as well as capture the discriminatory information present in the sensor transients.

pytc: Open-Source Python Software for Global Analyses of Isothermal Titration Calorimetry Data.

PubMed

Duvvuri, Hiranmayi; Wheeler, Lucas C; Harms, Michael J

2018-05-08

Here we describe pytc, an open-source Python package for global fits of thermodynamic models to multiple isothermal titration calorimetry experiments. Key features include simplicity, the ability to implement new thermodynamic models, a robust maximum likelihood fitter, a fast Bayesian Markov-Chain Monte Carlo sampler, rigorous implementation, extensive documentation, and full cross-platform compatibility. pytc fitting can be done using an application program interface or via a graphical user interface. It is available for download at https://github.com/harmslab/pytc .

High-throughput Bayesian Network Learning using Heterogeneous Multicore Computers

PubMed Central

Linderman, Michael D.; Athalye, Vivek; Meng, Teresa H.; Asadi, Narges Bani; Bruggner, Robert; Nolan, Garry P.

2017-01-01

Aberrant intracellular signaling plays an important role in many diseases. The causal structure of signal transduction networks can be modeled as Bayesian Networks (BNs), and computationally learned from experimental data. However, learning the structure of Bayesian Networks (BNs) is an NP-hard problem that, even with fast heuristics, is too time consuming for large, clinically important networks (20–50 nodes). In this paper, we present a novel graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated implementation of a Monte Carlo Markov Chain-based algorithm for learning BNs that is up to 7.5-fold faster than current general-purpose processor (GPP)-based implementations. The GPU-based implementation is just one of several implementations within the larger application, each optimized for a different input or machine configuration. We describe the methodology we use to build an extensible application, assembled from these variants, that can target a broad range of heterogeneous systems, e.g., GPUs, multicore GPPs. Specifically we show how we use the Merge programming model to efficiently integrate, test and intelligently select among the different potential implementations. PMID:28819655

Bayesian random-effect model for predicting outcome fraught with heterogeneity--an illustration with episodes of 44 patients with intractable epilepsy.

PubMed

Yen, A M-F; Liou, H-H; Lin, H-L; Chen, T H-H

2006-01-01

The study aimed to develop a predictive model to deal with data fraught with heterogeneity that cannot be explained by sampling variation or measured covariates. The random-effect Poisson regression model was first proposed to deal with over-dispersion for data fraught with heterogeneity after making allowance for measured covariates. Bayesian acyclic graphic model in conjunction with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique was then applied to estimate the parameters of both relevant covariates and random effect. Predictive distribution was then generated to compare the predicted with the observed for the Bayesian model with and without random effect. Data from repeated measurement of episodes among 44 patients with intractable epilepsy were used as an illustration. The application of Poisson regression without taking heterogeneity into account to epilepsy data yielded a large value of heterogeneity (heterogeneity factor = 17.90, deviance = 1485, degree of freedom (df) = 83). After taking the random effect into account, the value of heterogeneity factor was greatly reduced (heterogeneity factor = 0.52, deviance = 42.5, df = 81). The Pearson chi2 for the comparison between the expected seizure frequencies and the observed ones at two and three months of the model with and without random effect were 34.27 (p = 1.00) and 1799.90 (p < 0.0001), respectively. The Bayesian acyclic model using the MCMC method was demonstrated to have great potential for disease prediction while data show over-dispersion attributed either to correlated property or to subject-to-subject variability.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pichara, Karim; Protopapas, Pavlos

We present an automatic classification method for astronomical catalogs with missing data. We use Bayesian networks and a probabilistic graphical model that allows us to perform inference to predict missing values given observed data and dependency relationships between variables. To learn a Bayesian network from incomplete data, we use an iterative algorithm that utilizes sampling methods and expectation maximization to estimate the distributions and probabilistic dependencies of variables from data with missing values. To test our model, we use three catalogs with missing data (SAGE, Two Micron All Sky Survey, and UBVI) and one complete catalog (MACHO). We examine howmore » classification accuracy changes when information from missing data catalogs is included, how our method compares to traditional missing data approaches, and at what computational cost. Integrating these catalogs with missing data, we find that classification of variable objects improves by a few percent and by 15% for quasar detection while keeping the computational cost the same.« less

Combining Bayesian Networks and Agent Based Modeling to develop a decision-support model in Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nong, Bao Anh; Ertsen, Maurits; Schoups, Gerrit

2016-04-01

Complexity and uncertainty in natural resources management have been focus themes in recent years. Within these debates, with the aim to define an approach feasible for water management practice, we are developing an integrated conceptual modeling framework for simulating decision-making processes of citizens, in our case in the Day river area, Vietnam. The model combines Bayesian Networks (BNs) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). BNs are able to combine both qualitative data from consultants / experts / stakeholders, and quantitative data from observations on different phenomena or outcomes from other models. Further strengths of BNs are that the relationship between variables in the system is presented in a graphical interface, and that components of uncertainty are explicitly related to their probabilistic dependencies. A disadvantage is that BNs cannot easily identify the feedback of agents in the system once changes appear. Hence, ABM was adopted to represent the reaction among stakeholders under changes. The modeling framework is developed as an attempt to gain better understanding about citizen's behavior and factors influencing their decisions in order to reduce uncertainty in the implementation of water management policy.

Variational Bayesian Learning for Wavelet Independent Component Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roussos, E.; Roberts, S.; Daubechies, I.

2005-11-01

In an exploratory approach to data analysis, it is often useful to consider the observations as generated from a set of latent generators or "sources" via a generally unknown mapping. For the noisy overcomplete case, where we have more sources than observations, the problem becomes extremely ill-posed. Solutions to such inverse problems can, in many cases, be achieved by incorporating prior knowledge about the problem, captured in the form of constraints. This setting is a natural candidate for the application of the Bayesian methodology, allowing us to incorporate "soft" constraints in a natural manner. The work described in this paper is mainly driven by problems in functional magnetic resonance imaging of the brain, for the neuro-scientific goal of extracting relevant "maps" from the data. This can be stated as a `blind' source separation problem. Recent experiments in the field of neuroscience show that these maps are sparse, in some appropriate sense. The separation problem can be solved by independent component analysis (ICA), viewed as a technique for seeking sparse components, assuming appropriate distributions for the sources. We derive a hybrid wavelet-ICA model, transforming the signals into a domain where the modeling assumption of sparsity of the coefficients with respect to a dictionary is natural. We follow a graphical modeling formalism, viewing ICA as a probabilistic generative model. We use hierarchical source and mixing models and apply Bayesian inference to the problem. This allows us to perform model selection in order to infer the complexity of the representation, as well as automatic denoising. Since exact inference and learning in such a model is intractable, we follow a variational Bayesian mean-field approach in the conjugate-exponential family of distributions, for efficient unsupervised learning in multi-dimensional settings. The performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated on some representative experiments.

Bayesian Integration of Isotope Ratio for Geographic Sourcing of Castor Beans

DOE PAGES

Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo; Kreuzer, Helen; Hart, Garret; ...

2012-01-01

Recenmore » t years have seen an increase in the forensic interest associated with the poison ricin, which is extracted from the seeds of the Ricinus communis plant. Both light element (C, N, O, and H) and strontium (Sr) isotope ratios have previously been used to associate organic material with geographic regions of origin. We present a Bayesian integration methodology that can more accurately predict the region of origin for a castor bean than individual models developed independently for light element stable isotopes or Sr isotope ratios. Our results demonstrate a clear improvement in the ability to correctly classify regions based on the integrated model with a class accuracy of 60.9 ± 2.1 % versus 55.9 ± 2.1 % and 40.2 ± 1.8 % for the light element and strontium (Sr) isotope ratios, respectively. In addition, we show graphically the strengths and weaknesses of each dataset in respect to class prediction and how the integration of these datasets strengthens the overall model.« less

Bayesian Integration of Isotope Ratios for Geographic Sourcing of Castor Beans

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo M.; Kreuzer, Helen W.; Hart, Garret L.

Recent years have seen an increase in the forensic interest associated with the poison ricin, which is extracted from the seeds of the Ricinus communis plant. Both light element (C, N, O, and H) and strontium (Sr) isotope ratios have previously been used to associate organic material with geographic regions of origin. We present a Bayesian integration methodology that can more accurately predict the region of origin for a castor bean than individual models developed independently for light element stable isotopes or Sr isotope ratios. Our results demonstrate a clear improvement in the ability to correctly classify regions based onmore » the integrated model with a class accuracy of 6 0 . 9 {+-} 2 . 1 % versus 5 5 . 9 {+-} 2 . 1 % and 4 0 . 2 {+-} 1 . 8 % for the light element and strontium (Sr) isotope ratios, respectively. In addition, we show graphically the strengths and weaknesses of each dataset in respect to class prediction and how the integration of these datasets strengthens the overall model.« less

Bayesian Integration of Isotope Ratio for Geographic Sourcing of Castor Beans

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo; Kreuzer, Helen; Hart, Garret

Recenmore » t years have seen an increase in the forensic interest associated with the poison ricin, which is extracted from the seeds of the Ricinus communis plant. Both light element (C, N, O, and H) and strontium (Sr) isotope ratios have previously been used to associate organic material with geographic regions of origin. We present a Bayesian integration methodology that can more accurately predict the region of origin for a castor bean than individual models developed independently for light element stable isotopes or Sr isotope ratios. Our results demonstrate a clear improvement in the ability to correctly classify regions based on the integrated model with a class accuracy of 60.9 ± 2.1 % versus 55.9 ± 2.1 % and 40.2 ± 1.8 % for the light element and strontium (Sr) isotope ratios, respectively. In addition, we show graphically the strengths and weaknesses of each dataset in respect to class prediction and how the integration of these datasets strengthens the overall model.« less

Bayesian Integration of Isotope Ratio for Geographic Sourcing of Castor Beans

PubMed Central

Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo; Kreuzer, Helen; Hart, Garret; Ehleringer, James; West, Jason; Gill, Gary; Duckworth, Douglas

2012-01-01

Recent years have seen an increase in the forensic interest associated with the poison ricin, which is extracted from the seeds of the Ricinus communis plant. Both light element (C, N, O, and H) and strontium (Sr) isotope ratios have previously been used to associate organic material with geographic regions of origin. We present a Bayesian integration methodology that can more accurately predict the region of origin for a castor bean than individual models developed independently for light element stable isotopes or Sr isotope ratios. Our results demonstrate a clear improvement in the ability to correctly classify regions based on the integrated model with a class accuracy of 60.9 ± 2.1% versus 55.9 ± 2.1% and 40.2 ± 1.8% for the light element and strontium (Sr) isotope ratios, respectively. In addition, we show graphically the strengths and weaknesses of each dataset in respect to class prediction and how the integration of these datasets strengthens the overall model. PMID:22919270

Quantum Inference on Bayesian Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoder, Theodore; Low, Guang Hao; Chuang, Isaac

2014-03-01

Because quantum physics is naturally probabilistic, it seems reasonable to expect physical systems to describe probabilities and their evolution in a natural fashion. Here, we use quantum computation to speedup sampling from a graphical probability model, the Bayesian network. A specialization of this sampling problem is approximate Bayesian inference, where the distribution on query variables is sampled given the values e of evidence variables. Inference is a key part of modern machine learning and artificial intelligence tasks, but is known to be NP-hard. Classically, a single unbiased sample is obtained from a Bayesian network on n variables with at most m parents per node in time (nmP(e) - 1 / 2) , depending critically on P(e) , the probability the evidence might occur in the first place. However, by implementing a quantum version of rejection sampling, we obtain a square-root speedup, taking (n2m P(e) -1/2) time per sample. The speedup is the result of amplitude amplification, which is proving to be broadly applicable in sampling and machine learning tasks. In particular, we provide an explicit and efficient circuit construction that implements the algorithm without the need for oracle access.

Predicting human immunodeficiency virus inhibitors using multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers.

PubMed

Borchani, Hanen; Bielza, Concha; Toro, Carlos; Larrañaga, Pedro

2013-03-01

Our aim is to use multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers in order to predict the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) reverse transcriptase and protease inhibitors given an input set of respective resistance mutations that an HIV patient carries. Multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers (MBCs) are probabilistic graphical models especially designed to solve multi-dimensional classification problems, where each input instance in the data set has to be assigned simultaneously to multiple output class variables that are not necessarily binary. In this paper, we introduce a new method, named MB-MBC, for learning MBCs from data by determining the Markov blanket around each class variable using the HITON algorithm. Our method is applied to both reverse transcriptase and protease data sets obtained from the Stanford HIV-1 database. Regarding the prediction of antiretroviral combination therapies, the experimental study shows promising results in terms of classification accuracy compared with state-of-the-art MBC learning algorithms. For reverse transcriptase inhibitors, we get 71% and 11% in mean and global accuracy, respectively; while for protease inhibitors, we get more than 84% and 31% in mean and global accuracy, respectively. In addition, the analysis of MBC graphical structures lets us gain insight into both known and novel interactions between reverse transcriptase and protease inhibitors and their respective resistance mutations. MB-MBC algorithm is a valuable tool to analyze the HIV-1 reverse transcriptase and protease inhibitors prediction problem and to discover interactions within and between these two classes of inhibitors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian inference for psychology. Part II: Example applications with JASP.

PubMed

Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Love, Jonathon; Marsman, Maarten; Jamil, Tahira; Ly, Alexander; Verhagen, Josine; Selker, Ravi; Gronau, Quentin F; Dropmann, Damian; Boutin, Bruno; Meerhoff, Frans; Knight, Patrick; Raj, Akash; van Kesteren, Erik-Jan; van Doorn, Johnny; Šmíra, Martin; Epskamp, Sacha; Etz, Alexander; Matzke, Dora; de Jong, Tim; van den Bergh, Don; Sarafoglou, Alexandra; Steingroever, Helen; Derks, Koen; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Morey, Richard D

2018-02-01

Bayesian hypothesis testing presents an attractive alternative to p value hypothesis testing. Part I of this series outlined several advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing, including the ability to quantify evidence and the ability to monitor and update this evidence as data come in, without the need to know the intention with which the data were collected. Despite these and other practical advantages, Bayesian hypothesis tests are still reported relatively rarely. An important impediment to the widespread adoption of Bayesian tests is arguably the lack of user-friendly software for the run-of-the-mill statistical problems that confront psychologists for the analysis of almost every experiment: the t-test, ANOVA, correlation, regression, and contingency tables. In Part II of this series we introduce JASP ( http://www.jasp-stats.org ), an open-source, cross-platform, user-friendly graphical software package that allows users to carry out Bayesian hypothesis tests for standard statistical problems. JASP is based in part on the Bayesian analyses implemented in Morey and Rouder's BayesFactor package for R. Armed with JASP, the practical advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing are only a mouse click away.

Uncertainty Quantification of Hypothesis Testing for the Integrated Knowledge Engine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cuellar, Leticia

2012-05-31

The Integrated Knowledge Engine (IKE) is a tool of Bayesian analysis, based on Bayesian Belief Networks or Bayesian networks for short. A Bayesian network is a graphical model (directed acyclic graph) that allows representing the probabilistic structure of many variables assuming a localized type of dependency called the Markov property. The Markov property in this instance makes any node or random variable to be independent of any non-descendant node given information about its parent. A direct consequence of this property is that it is relatively easy to incorporate new evidence and derive the appropriate consequences, which in general is notmore » an easy or feasible task. Typically we use Bayesian networks as predictive models for a small subset of the variables, either the leave nodes or the root nodes. In IKE, since most applications deal with diagnostics, we are interested in predicting the likelihood of the root nodes given new observations on any of the children nodes. The root nodes represent the various possible outcomes of the analysis, and an important problem is to determine when we have gathered enough evidence to lean toward one of these particular outcomes. This document presents criteria to decide when the evidence gathered is sufficient to draw a particular conclusion or decide in favor of a particular outcome by quantifying the uncertainty in the conclusions that are drawn from the data. The material in this document is organized as follows: Section 2 presents briefly a forensics Bayesian network, and we explore evaluating the information provided by new evidence by looking first at the posterior distribution of the nodes of interest, and then at the corresponding posterior odds ratios. Section 3 presents a third alternative: Bayes Factors. In section 4 we finalize by showing the relation between the posterior odds ratios and Bayes factors and showing examples these cases, and in section 5 we conclude by providing clear guidelines of how to use these for the type of Bayesian networks used in IKE.« less

Machine Learning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chikkagoudar, Satish; Chatterjee, Samrat; Thomas, Dennis G.

The absence of a robust and unified theory of cyber dynamics presents challenges and opportunities for using machine learning based data-driven approaches to further the understanding of the behavior of such complex systems. Analysts can also use machine learning approaches to gain operational insights. In order to be operationally beneficial, cybersecurity machine learning based models need to have the ability to: (1) represent a real-world system, (2) infer system properties, and (3) learn and adapt based on expert knowledge and observations. Probabilistic models and Probabilistic graphical models provide these necessary properties and are further explored in this chapter. Bayesian Networksmore » and Hidden Markov Models are introduced as an example of a widely used data driven classification/modeling strategy.« less

Multi-subject hierarchical inverse covariance modelling improves estimation of functional brain networks.

PubMed

Colclough, Giles L; Woolrich, Mark W; Harrison, Samuel J; Rojas López, Pedro A; Valdes-Sosa, Pedro A; Smith, Stephen M

2018-05-07

A Bayesian model for sparse, hierarchical, inver-covariance estimation is presented, and applied to multi-subject functional connectivity estimation in the human brain. It enables simultaneous inference of the strength of connectivity between brain regions at both subject and population level, and is applicable to fMRI, MEG and EEG data. Two versions of the model can encourage sparse connectivity, either using continuous priors to suppress irrelevant connections, or using an explicit description of the network structure to estimate the connection probability between each pair of regions. A large evaluation of this model, and thirteen methods that represent the state of the art of inverse covariance modelling, is conducted using both simulated and resting-state functional imaging datasets. Our novel Bayesian approach has similar performance to the best extant alternative, Ng et al.'s Sparse Group Gaussian Graphical Model algorithm, which also is based on a hierarchical structure. Using data from the Human Connectome Project, we show that these hierarchical models are able to reduce the measurement error in MEG beta-band functional networks by 10%, producing concomitant increases in estimates of the genetic influence on functional connectivity. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Taming Many-Parameter BSM Models with Bayesian Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuchera, M. P.; Karbo, A.; Prosper, H. B.; Sanchez, A.; Taylor, J. Z.

2017-09-01

The search for physics Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) is a major focus of large-scale high energy physics experiments. One method is to look for specific deviations from the Standard Model that are predicted by BSM models. In cases where the model has a large number of free parameters, standard search methods become intractable due to computation time. This talk presents results using Bayesian Neural Networks, a supervised machine learning method, to enable the study of higher-dimensional models. The popular phenomenological Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model was studied as an example of the feasibility and usefulness of this method. Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) are used to expedite the calculations. Cross-section predictions for 13 TeV proton collisions will be presented. My participation in the Conference Experience for Undergraduates (CEU) in 2004-2006 exposed me to the national and global significance of cutting-edge research. At the 2005 CEU, I presented work from the previous summer's SULI internship at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, where I learned to program while working on the Majorana Project. That work inspired me to follow a similar research path, which led me to my current work on computational methods applied to BSM physics.

An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reddy, Vikas; Charisse Farr, Anna; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.

2014-03-01

Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.

Bayesian joint modelling of benefit and risk in drug development.

PubMed

Costa, Maria J; Drury, Thomas

2018-05-01

To gain regulatory approval, a new medicine must demonstrate that its benefits outweigh any potential risks, ie, that the benefit-risk balance is favourable towards the new medicine. For transparency and clarity of the decision, a structured and consistent approach to benefit-risk assessment that quantifies uncertainties and accounts for underlying dependencies is desirable. This paper proposes two approaches to benefit-risk evaluation, both based on the idea of joint modelling of mixed outcomes that are potentially dependent at the subject level. Using Bayesian inference, the two approaches offer interpretability and efficiency to enhance qualitative frameworks. Simulation studies show that accounting for correlation leads to a more accurate assessment of the strength of evidence to support benefit-risk profiles of interest. Several graphical approaches are proposed that can be used to communicate the benefit-risk balance to project teams. Finally, the two approaches are illustrated in a case study using real clinical trial data. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reconstruction of metabolic pathways by combining probabilistic graphical model-based and knowledge-based methods

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Automatic reconstruction of metabolic pathways for an organism from genomics and transcriptomics data has been a challenging and important problem in bioinformatics. Traditionally, known reference pathways can be mapped into an organism-specific ones based on its genome annotation and protein homology. However, this simple knowledge-based mapping method might produce incomplete pathways and generally cannot predict unknown new relations and reactions. In contrast, ab initio metabolic network construction methods can predict novel reactions and interactions, but its accuracy tends to be low leading to a lot of false positives. Here we combine existing pathway knowledge and a new ab initio Bayesian probabilistic graphical model together in a novel fashion to improve automatic reconstruction of metabolic networks. Specifically, we built a knowledge database containing known, individual gene / protein interactions and metabolic reactions extracted from existing reference pathways. Known reactions and interactions were then used as constraints for Bayesian network learning methods to predict metabolic pathways. Using individual reactions and interactions extracted from different pathways of many organisms to guide pathway construction is new and improves both the coverage and accuracy of metabolic pathway construction. We applied this probabilistic knowledge-based approach to construct the metabolic networks from yeast gene expression data and compared its results with 62 known metabolic networks in the KEGG database. The experiment showed that the method improved the coverage of metabolic network construction over the traditional reference pathway mapping method and was more accurate than pure ab initio methods. PMID:25374614

Bayesian deconvolution and quantification of metabolites in complex 1D NMR spectra using BATMAN.

PubMed

Hao, Jie; Liebeke, Manuel; Astle, William; De Iorio, Maria; Bundy, Jacob G; Ebbels, Timothy M D

2014-01-01

Data processing for 1D NMR spectra is a key bottleneck for metabolomic and other complex-mixture studies, particularly where quantitative data on individual metabolites are required. We present a protocol for automated metabolite deconvolution and quantification from complex NMR spectra by using the Bayesian automated metabolite analyzer for NMR (BATMAN) R package. BATMAN models resonances on the basis of a user-controllable set of templates, each of which specifies the chemical shifts, J-couplings and relative peak intensities for a single metabolite. Peaks are allowed to shift position slightly between spectra, and peak widths are allowed to vary by user-specified amounts. NMR signals not captured by the templates are modeled non-parametrically by using wavelets. The protocol covers setting up user template libraries, optimizing algorithmic input parameters, improving prior information on peak positions, quality control and evaluation of outputs. The outputs include relative concentration estimates for named metabolites together with associated Bayesian uncertainty estimates, as well as the fit of the remainder of the spectrum using wavelets. Graphical diagnostics allow the user to examine the quality of the fit for multiple spectra simultaneously. This approach offers a workflow to analyze large numbers of spectra and is expected to be useful in a wide range of metabolomics studies.

Probabilistic mapping of descriptive health status responses onto health state utilities using Bayesian networks: an empirical analysis converting SF-12 into EQ-5D utility index in a national US sample.

PubMed

Le, Quang A; Doctor, Jason N

2011-05-01

As quality-adjusted life years have become the standard metric in health economic evaluations, mapping health-profile or disease-specific measures onto preference-based measures to obtain quality-adjusted life years has become a solution when health utilities are not directly available. However, current mapping methods are limited due to their predictive validity, reliability, and/or other methodological issues. We employ probability theory together with a graphical model, called a Bayesian network, to convert health-profile measures into preference-based measures and to compare the results to those estimated with current mapping methods. A sample of 19,678 adults who completed both the 12-item Short Form Health Survey (SF-12v2) and EuroQoL 5D (EQ-5D) questionnaires from the 2003 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey was split into training and validation sets. Bayesian networks were constructed to explore the probabilistic relationships between each EQ-5D domain and 12 items of the SF-12v2. The EQ-5D utility scores were estimated on the basis of the predicted probability of each response level of the 5 EQ-5D domains obtained from the Bayesian inference process using the following methods: Monte Carlo simulation, expected utility, and most-likely probability. Results were then compared with current mapping methods including multinomial logistic regression, ordinary least squares, and censored least absolute deviations. The Bayesian networks consistently outperformed other mapping models in the overall sample (mean absolute error=0.077, mean square error=0.013, and R overall=0.802), in different age groups, number of chronic conditions, and ranges of the EQ-5D index. Bayesian networks provide a new robust and natural approach to map health status responses into health utility measures for health economic evaluations.

Quantum Bayesian networks with application to games displaying Parrondo's paradox

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pejic, Michael

Bayesian networks and their accompanying graphical models are widely used for prediction and analysis across many disciplines. We will reformulate these in terms of linear maps. This reformulation will suggest a natural extension, which we will show is equivalent to standard textbook quantum mechanics. Therefore, this extension will be termed quantum. However, the term quantum should not be taken to imply this extension is necessarily only of utility in situations traditionally thought of as in the domain of quantum mechanics. In principle, it may be employed in any modelling situation, say forecasting the weather or the stock market---it is up to experiment to determine if this extension is useful in practice. Even restricting to the domain of quantum mechanics, with this new formulation the advantages of Bayesian networks can be maintained for models incorporating quantum and mixed classical-quantum behavior. The use of these will be illustrated by various basic examples. Parrondo's paradox refers to the situation where two, multi-round games with a fixed winning criteria, both with probability greater than one-half for one player to win, are combined. Using a possibly biased coin to determine the rule to employ for each round, paradoxically, the previously losing player now wins the combined game with probabilitygreater than one-half. Using the extended Bayesian networks, we will formulate and analyze classical observed, classical hidden, and quantum versions of a game that displays this paradox, finding bounds for the discrepancy from naive expectations for the occurrence of the paradox. A quantum paradox inspired by Parrondo's paradox will also be analyzed. We will prove a bound for the discrepancy from naive expectations for this paradox as well. Games involving quantum walks that achieve this bound will be presented.

The discounting model selector: Statistical software for delay discounting applications.

PubMed

Gilroy, Shawn P; Franck, Christopher T; Hantula, Donald A

2017-05-01

Original, open-source computer software was developed and validated against established delay discounting methods in the literature. The software executed approximate Bayesian model selection methods from user-supplied temporal discounting data and computed the effective delay 50 (ED50) from the best performing model. Software was custom-designed to enable behavior analysts to conveniently apply recent statistical methods to temporal discounting data with the aid of a graphical user interface (GUI). The results of independent validation of the approximate Bayesian model selection methods indicated that the program provided results identical to that of the original source paper and its methods. Monte Carlo simulation (n = 50,000) confirmed that true model was selected most often in each setting. Simulation code and data for this study were posted to an online repository for use by other researchers. The model selection approach was applied to three existing delay discounting data sets from the literature in addition to the data from the source paper. Comparisons of model selected ED50 were consistent with traditional indices of discounting. Conceptual issues related to the development and use of computer software by behavior analysts and the opportunities afforded by free and open-sourced software are discussed and a review of possible expansions of this software are provided. © 2017 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Capturing changes in flood risk with Bayesian approaches for flood damage assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, Kristin; Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Thieken, Annegret; Müller, Meike; Sieg, Tobias; Laudan, Jonas; Kienzler, Sarah; Weise, Laura; Merz, Bruno; Scherbaum, Frank

2016-04-01

Flood risk is a function of hazard as well as of exposure and vulnerability. All three components are under change over space and time and have to be considered for reliable damage estimations and risk analyses, since this is the basis for an efficient, adaptable risk management. Hitherto, models for estimating flood damage are comparatively simple and cannot sufficiently account for changing conditions. The Bayesian network approach allows for a multivariate modeling of complex systems without relying on expert knowledge about physical constraints. In a Bayesian network each model component is considered to be a random variable. The way of interactions between those variables can be learned from observations or be defined by expert knowledge. Even a combination of both is possible. Moreover, the probabilistic framework captures uncertainties related to the prediction and provides a probability distribution for the damage instead of a point estimate. The graphical representation of Bayesian networks helps to study the change of probabilities for changing circumstances and may thus simplify the communication between scientists and public authorities. In the framework of the DFG-Research Training Group "NatRiskChange" we aim to develop Bayesian networks for flood damage and vulnerability assessments of residential buildings and companies under changing conditions. A Bayesian network learned from data, collected over the last 15 years in flooded regions in the Elbe and Danube catchments (Germany), reveals the impact of many variables like building characteristics, precaution and warning situation on flood damage to residential buildings. While the handling of incomplete and hybrid (discrete mixed with continuous) data are the most challenging issues in the study on residential buildings, a similar study, that focuses on the vulnerability of small to medium sized companies, bears new challenges. Relying on a much smaller data set for the determination of the model parameters, overly complex models should be avoided. A so called Markov Blanket approach aims at the identification of the most relevant factors and constructs a Bayesian network based on those findings. With our approach we want to exploit a major advantage of Bayesian networks which is their ability to consider dependencies not only pairwise, but to capture the joint effects and interactions of driving forces. Hence, the flood damage network does not only show the impact of precaution on the building damage separately, but also reveals the mutual effects of precaution and the quality of warning for a variety of flood settings. Thus, it allows for a consideration of changing conditions and different courses of action and forms a novel and valuable tool for decision support. This study is funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) within the research training program GRK 2043/1 "NatRiskChange - Natural hazards and risks in a changing world" at the University of Potsdam.

Back to BaySICS: a user-friendly program for Bayesian Statistical Inference from Coalescent Simulations.

PubMed

Sandoval-Castellanos, Edson; Palkopoulou, Eleftheria; Dalén, Love

2014-01-01

Inference of population demographic history has vastly improved in recent years due to a number of technological and theoretical advances including the use of ancient DNA. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) stands among the most promising methods due to its simple theoretical fundament and exceptional flexibility. However, limited availability of user-friendly programs that perform ABC analysis renders it difficult to implement, and hence programming skills are frequently required. In addition, there is limited availability of programs able to deal with heterochronous data. Here we present the software BaySICS: Bayesian Statistical Inference of Coalescent Simulations. BaySICS provides an integrated and user-friendly platform that performs ABC analyses by means of coalescent simulations from DNA sequence data. It estimates historical demographic population parameters and performs hypothesis testing by means of Bayes factors obtained from model comparisons. Although providing specific features that improve inference from datasets with heterochronous data, BaySICS also has several capabilities making it a suitable tool for analysing contemporary genetic datasets. Those capabilities include joint analysis of independent tables, a graphical interface and the implementation of Markov-chain Monte Carlo without likelihoods.

Using Object Oriented Bayesian Networks to Model Linkage, Linkage Disequilibrium and Mutations between STR Markers

PubMed Central

Kling, Daniel; Egeland, Thore; Mostad, Petter

2012-01-01

In a number of applications there is a need to determine the most likely pedigree for a group of persons based on genetic markers. Adequate models are needed to reach this goal. The markers used to perform the statistical calculations can be linked and there may also be linkage disequilibrium (LD) in the population. The purpose of this paper is to present a graphical Bayesian Network framework to deal with such data. Potential LD is normally ignored and it is important to verify that the resulting calculations are not biased. Even if linkage does not influence results for regular paternity cases, it may have substantial impact on likelihood ratios involving other, more extended pedigrees. Models for LD influence likelihoods for all pedigrees to some degree and an initial estimate of the impact of ignoring LD and/or linkage is desirable, going beyond mere rules of thumb based on marker distance. Furthermore, we show how one can readily include a mutation model in the Bayesian Network; extending other programs or formulas to include such models may require considerable amounts of work and will in many case not be practical. As an example, we consider the two STR markers vWa and D12S391. We estimate probabilities for population haplotypes to account for LD using a method based on data from trios, while an estimate for the degree of linkage is taken from the literature. The results show that accounting for haplotype frequencies is unnecessary in most cases for this specific pair of markers. When doing calculations on regular paternity cases, the markers can be considered statistically independent. In more complex cases of disputed relatedness, for instance cases involving siblings or so-called deficient cases, or when small differences in the LR matter, independence should not be assumed. (The networks are freely available at http://arken.umb.no/~dakl/BayesianNetworks.) PMID:22984448

A Bayesian network approach for modeling local failure in lung cancer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Jung Hun; Craft, Jeffrey; Lozi, Rawan Al; Vaidya, Manushka; Meng, Yifan; Deasy, Joseph O.; Bradley, Jeffrey D.; El Naqa, Issam

2011-03-01

Locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients suffer from a high local failure rate following radiotherapy. Despite many efforts to develop new dose-volume models for early detection of tumor local failure, there was no reported significant improvement in their application prospectively. Based on recent studies of biomarker proteins' role in hypoxia and inflammation in predicting tumor response to radiotherapy, we hypothesize that combining physical and biological factors with a suitable framework could improve the overall prediction. To test this hypothesis, we propose a graphical Bayesian network framework for predicting local failure in lung cancer. The proposed approach was tested using two different datasets of locally advanced NSCLC patients treated with radiotherapy. The first dataset was collected retrospectively, which comprises clinical and dosimetric variables only. The second dataset was collected prospectively in which in addition to clinical and dosimetric information, blood was drawn from the patients at various time points to extract candidate biomarkers as well. Our preliminary results show that the proposed method can be used as an efficient method to develop predictive models of local failure in these patients and to interpret relationships among the different variables in the models. We also demonstrate the potential use of heterogeneous physical and biological variables to improve the model prediction. With the first dataset, we achieved better performance compared with competing Bayesian-based classifiers. With the second dataset, the combined model had a slightly higher performance compared to individual physical and biological models, with the biological variables making the largest contribution. Our preliminary results highlight the potential of the proposed integrated approach for predicting post-radiotherapy local failure in NSCLC patients.

Spatial Bayesian belief networks as a planning decision tool for mapping ecosystem services trade-offs on forested landscapes.

PubMed

Gonzalez-Redin, Julen; Luque, Sandra; Poggio, Laura; Smith, Ron; Gimona, Alessandro

2016-01-01

An integrated methodology, based on linking Bayesian belief networks (BBN) with GIS, is proposed for combining available evidence to help forest managers evaluate implications and trade-offs between forest production and conservation measures to preserve biodiversity in forested habitats. A Bayesian belief network is a probabilistic graphical model that represents variables and their dependencies through specifying probabilistic relationships. In spatially explicit decision problems where it is difficult to choose appropriate combinations of interventions, the proposed integration of a BBN with GIS helped to facilitate shared understanding of the human-landscape relationships, while fostering collective management that can be incorporated into landscape planning processes. Trades-offs become more and more relevant in these landscape contexts where the participation of many and varied stakeholder groups is indispensable. With these challenges in mind, our integrated approach incorporates GIS-based data with expert knowledge to consider two different land use interests - biodiversity value for conservation and timber production potential - with the focus on a complex mountain landscape in the French Alps. The spatial models produced provided different alternatives of suitable sites that can be used by policy makers in order to support conservation priorities while addressing management options. The approach provided provide a common reasoning language among different experts from different backgrounds while helped to identify spatially explicit conflictive areas. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fuzzy Intervals for Designing Structural Signature: An Application to Graphic Symbol Recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luqman, Muhammad Muzzamil; Delalandre, Mathieu; Brouard, Thierry; Ramel, Jean-Yves; Lladós, Josep

The motivation behind our work is to present a new methodology for symbol recognition. The proposed method employs a structural approach for representing visual associations in symbols and a statistical classifier for recognition. We vectorize a graphic symbol, encode its topological and geometrical information by an attributed relational graph and compute a signature from this structural graph. We have addressed the sensitivity of structural representations to noise, by using data adapted fuzzy intervals. The joint probability distribution of signatures is encoded by a Bayesian network, which serves as a mechanism for pruning irrelevant features and choosing a subset of interesting features from structural signatures of underlying symbol set. The Bayesian network is deployed in a supervised learning scenario for recognizing query symbols. The method has been evaluated for robustness against degradations & deformations on pre-segmented 2D linear architectural & electronic symbols from GREC databases, and for its recognition abilities on symbols with context noise i.e. cropped symbols.

How good is crude MDL for solving the bias-variance dilemma? An empirical investigation based on Bayesian networks.

PubMed

Cruz-Ramírez, Nicandro; Acosta-Mesa, Héctor Gabriel; Mezura-Montes, Efrén; Guerra-Hernández, Alejandro; Hoyos-Rivera, Guillermo de Jesús; Barrientos-Martínez, Rocío Erandi; Gutiérrez-Fragoso, Karina; Nava-Fernández, Luis Alonso; González-Gaspar, Patricia; Novoa-del-Toro, Elva María; Aguilera-Rueda, Vicente Josué; Ameca-Alducin, María Yaneli

2014-01-01

The bias-variance dilemma is a well-known and important problem in Machine Learning. It basically relates the generalization capability (goodness of fit) of a learning method to its corresponding complexity. When we have enough data at hand, it is possible to use these data in such a way so as to minimize overfitting (the risk of selecting a complex model that generalizes poorly). Unfortunately, there are many situations where we simply do not have this required amount of data. Thus, we need to find methods capable of efficiently exploiting the available data while avoiding overfitting. Different metrics have been proposed to achieve this goal: the Minimum Description Length principle (MDL), Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), among others. In this paper, we focus on crude MDL and empirically evaluate its performance in selecting models with a good balance between goodness of fit and complexity: the so-called bias-variance dilemma, decomposition or tradeoff. Although the graphical interaction between these dimensions (bias and variance) is ubiquitous in the Machine Learning literature, few works present experimental evidence to recover such interaction. In our experiments, we argue that the resulting graphs allow us to gain insights that are difficult to unveil otherwise: that crude MDL naturally selects balanced models in terms of bias-variance, which not necessarily need be the gold-standard ones. We carry out these experiments using a specific model: a Bayesian network. In spite of these motivating results, we also should not overlook three other components that may significantly affect the final model selection: the search procedure, the noise rate and the sample size.

How Good Is Crude MDL for Solving the Bias-Variance Dilemma? An Empirical Investigation Based on Bayesian Networks

PubMed Central

Cruz-Ramírez, Nicandro; Acosta-Mesa, Héctor Gabriel; Mezura-Montes, Efrén; Guerra-Hernández, Alejandro; Hoyos-Rivera, Guillermo de Jesús; Barrientos-Martínez, Rocío Erandi; Gutiérrez-Fragoso, Karina; Nava-Fernández, Luis Alonso; González-Gaspar, Patricia; Novoa-del-Toro, Elva María; Aguilera-Rueda, Vicente Josué; Ameca-Alducin, María Yaneli

2014-01-01

The bias-variance dilemma is a well-known and important problem in Machine Learning. It basically relates the generalization capability (goodness of fit) of a learning method to its corresponding complexity. When we have enough data at hand, it is possible to use these data in such a way so as to minimize overfitting (the risk of selecting a complex model that generalizes poorly). Unfortunately, there are many situations where we simply do not have this required amount of data. Thus, we need to find methods capable of efficiently exploiting the available data while avoiding overfitting. Different metrics have been proposed to achieve this goal: the Minimum Description Length principle (MDL), Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), among others. In this paper, we focus on crude MDL and empirically evaluate its performance in selecting models with a good balance between goodness of fit and complexity: the so-called bias-variance dilemma, decomposition or tradeoff. Although the graphical interaction between these dimensions (bias and variance) is ubiquitous in the Machine Learning literature, few works present experimental evidence to recover such interaction. In our experiments, we argue that the resulting graphs allow us to gain insights that are difficult to unveil otherwise: that crude MDL naturally selects balanced models in terms of bias-variance, which not necessarily need be the gold-standard ones. We carry out these experiments using a specific model: a Bayesian network. In spite of these motivating results, we also should not overlook three other components that may significantly affect the final model selection: the search procedure, the noise rate and the sample size. PMID:24671204

Signatures of Higgs dilaton and critical Higgs inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Bellido, Juan

2018-01-01

We test the Higgs dilaton inflation model (HDM) using the latest cosmological datasets, including the cosmic microwave background temperature, polarization and lensing data from the Planck satellite (2015), the BICEP and Keck Array experiments, the type Ia supernovae from the JLA catalogue, the baryon acoustic oscillations from CMASS, LOWZ and 6dF, the weak lensing data from the CFHTLenS survey and the matter power spectrum measurements from the latest SDSS data release. We find that the values of all cosmological parameters allowed by the HDM are well within the Planck satellite (2015) constraints. In particular, we determine , , , and (at 95.5% c.l.). We also place new stringent constraints on the couplings of the HDM, ξχ<0.00328 and (at 95.5% c.l.). We find that the HDM is only slightly better than the w0waCDM model, with . Given that the HDM has two fewer parameters, we find Bayesian evidence favouring the HDM over the w0waCDM model. We also study the critical Higgs inflation model, taking into account the running of both the self-coupling λ(μ) and the non-minimal coupling to gravity ξ(μ). We find peaks in the curvature power spectrum at scales corresponding to the critical value μ that re-enter during the radiation era and collapse to form a broad distribution of clustered primordial black holes, which could constitute today the main component of dark matter. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue `Higgs cosmology'.

Probabilistic evaluation of n traces with no putative source: A likelihood ratio based approach in an investigative framework.

PubMed

De March, I; Sironi, E; Taroni, F

2016-09-01

Analysis of marks recovered from different crime scenes can be useful to detect a linkage between criminal cases, even though a putative source for the recovered traces is not available. This particular circumstance is often encountered in the early stage of investigations and thus, the evaluation of evidence association may provide useful information for the investigators. This association is evaluated here from a probabilistic point of view: a likelihood ratio based approach is suggested in order to quantify the strength of the evidence of trace association in the light of two mutually exclusive propositions, namely that the n traces come from a common source or from an unspecified number of sources. To deal with this kind of problem, probabilistic graphical models are used, in form of Bayesian networks and object-oriented Bayesian networks, allowing users to intuitively handle with uncertainty related to the inferential problem. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT) availability stochastic model: integrating failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), influence diagram, and Bayesian network together

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verzichelli, Gianluca

2016-08-01

An Availability Stochastic Model for the E-ELT has been developed in GeNIE. The latter is a Graphical User Interface (GUI) for the Structural Modeling, Inference, and Learning Engine (SMILE), originally distributed by the Decision Systems Laboratory from the University of Pittsburgh, and now being a product of Bayes Fusion, LLC. The E-ELT will be the largest optical/near-infrared telescope in the world. Its design comprises an Alt-Azimuth mount reflecting telescope with a 39-metre-diameter segmented primary mirror, a 4-metre-diameter secondary mirror, a 3.75-metre-diameter tertiary mirror, adaptive optics and multiple instruments. This paper highlights how a Model has been developed for an earlier on assessment of the Telescope Avail- ability. It also describes the modular structure and the underlying assumptions that have been adopted for developing the model and demonstrates the integration of FMEA, Influence Diagram and Bayesian Network elements. These have been considered for a better characterization of the Model inputs and outputs and for taking into account Degraded-based Reliability (DBR). Lastly, it provides an overview of how the information and knowledge captured in the model may be used for an earlier on definition of the Failure, Detection, Isolation and Recovery (FDIR) Control Strategy and the Telescope Minimum Master Equipment List (T-MMEL).

Constructing a clinical decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy using a Bayesian Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hargrave, C.; Moores, M.; Deegan, T.; Gibbs, A.; Poulsen, M.; Harden, F.; Mengersen, K.

2014-03-01

A decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) is being developed using a Bayesian Network (BN) to graphically describe, and probabilistically quantify, the many interacting factors that are involved in this complex clinical process. Outputs of the BN will provide decision-support for radiation therapists to assist them to make correct inferences relating to the likelihood of treatment delivery accuracy for a given image-guided set-up correction. The framework is being developed as a dynamic object-oriented BN, allowing for complex modelling with specific subregions, as well as representation of the sequential decision-making and belief updating associated with IGRT. A prototype graphic structure for the BN was developed by analysing IGRT practices at a local radiotherapy department and incorporating results obtained from a literature review. Clinical stakeholders reviewed the BN to validate its structure. The BN consists of a sub-network for evaluating the accuracy of IGRT practices and technology. The directed acyclic graph (DAG) contains nodes and directional arcs representing the causal relationship between the many interacting factors such as tumour site and its associated critical organs, technology and technique, and inter-user variability. The BN was extended to support on-line and off-line decision-making with respect to treatment plan compliance. Following conceptualisation of the framework, the BN will be quantified. It is anticipated that the finalised decision-making framework will provide a foundation to develop better decision-support strategies and automated correction algorithms for IGRT.

Detection of Low-order Curves in Images using Biologically-plausible Hardware

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-29

the intersections of iso-eccentricity and iso-polar contours were entered into the computer via a graphics tablet . In regions where there was...functional mri . Cerebral Cortex, 7:181 – 192, 1997. [25] Jacob Feldman. Bayesian contour integration. Perception and Psychophysics, 63:1171 – 1182, 2001. [26

Assessing compositional variability through graphical analysis and Bayesian statistical approaches: case studies on transgenic crops.

PubMed

Harrigan, George G; Harrison, Jay M

2012-01-01

New transgenic (GM) crops are subjected to extensive safety assessments that include compositional comparisons with conventional counterparts as a cornerstone of the process. The influence of germplasm, location, environment, and agronomic treatments on compositional variability is, however, often obscured in these pair-wise comparisons. Furthermore, classical statistical significance testing can often provide an incomplete and over-simplified summary of highly responsive variables such as crop composition. In order to more clearly describe the influence of the numerous sources of compositional variation we present an introduction to two alternative but complementary approaches to data analysis and interpretation. These include i) exploratory data analysis (EDA) with its emphasis on visualization and graphics-based approaches and ii) Bayesian statistical methodology that provides easily interpretable and meaningful evaluations of data in terms of probability distributions. The EDA case-studies include analyses of herbicide-tolerant GM soybean and insect-protected GM maize and soybean. Bayesian approaches are presented in an analysis of herbicide-tolerant GM soybean. Advantages of these approaches over classical frequentist significance testing include the more direct interpretation of results in terms of probabilities pertaining to quantities of interest and no confusion over the application of corrections for multiple comparisons. It is concluded that a standardized framework for these methodologies could provide specific advantages through enhanced clarity of presentation and interpretation in comparative assessments of crop composition.

Validation workflow for a clinical Bayesian network model in multidisciplinary decision making in head and neck oncology treatment.

PubMed

Cypko, Mario A; Stoehr, Matthaeus; Kozniewski, Marcin; Druzdzel, Marek J; Dietz, Andreas; Berliner, Leonard; Lemke, Heinz U

2017-11-01

Oncological treatment is being increasingly complex, and therefore, decision making in multidisciplinary teams is becoming the key activity in the clinical pathways. The increased complexity is related to the number and variability of possible treatment decisions that may be relevant to a patient. In this paper, we describe validation of a multidisciplinary cancer treatment decision in the clinical domain of head and neck oncology. Probabilistic graphical models and corresponding inference algorithms, in the form of Bayesian networks, can support complex decision-making processes by providing a mathematically reproducible and transparent advice. The quality of BN-based advice depends on the quality of the model. Therefore, it is vital to validate the model before it is applied in practice. For an example BN subnetwork of laryngeal cancer with 303 variables, we evaluated 66 patient records. To validate the model on this dataset, a validation workflow was applied in combination with quantitative and qualitative analyses. In the subsequent analyses, we observed four sources of imprecise predictions: incorrect data, incomplete patient data, outvoting relevant observations, and incorrect model. Finally, the four problems were solved by modifying the data and the model. The presented validation effort is related to the model complexity. For simpler models, the validation workflow is the same, although it may require fewer validation methods. The validation success is related to the model's well-founded knowledge base. The remaining laryngeal cancer model may disclose additional sources of imprecise predictions.

A note on probabilistic models over strings: the linear algebra approach.

PubMed

Bouchard-Côté, Alexandre

2013-12-01

Probabilistic models over strings have played a key role in developing methods that take into consideration indels as phylogenetically informative events. There is an extensive literature on using automata and transducers on phylogenies to do inference on these probabilistic models, in which an important theoretical question is the complexity of computing the normalization of a class of string-valued graphical models. This question has been investigated using tools from combinatorics, dynamic programming, and graph theory, and has practical applications in Bayesian phylogenetics. In this work, we revisit this theoretical question from a different point of view, based on linear algebra. The main contribution is a set of results based on this linear algebra view that facilitate the analysis and design of inference algorithms on string-valued graphical models. As an illustration, we use this method to give a new elementary proof of a known result on the complexity of inference on the "TKF91" model, a well-known probabilistic model over strings. Compared to previous work, our proving method is easier to extend to other models, since it relies on a novel weak condition, triangular transducers, which is easy to establish in practice. The linear algebra view provides a concise way of describing transducer algorithms and their compositions, opens the possibility of transferring fast linear algebra libraries (for example, based on GPUs), as well as low rank matrix approximation methods, to string-valued inference problems.

Quantifying the uncertainty in discharge data using hydraulic knowledge and uncertain gaugings: a Bayesian method named BaRatin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Coz, Jérôme; Renard, Benjamin; Bonnifait, Laurent; Branger, Flora; Le Boursicaud, Raphaël; Horner, Ivan; Mansanarez, Valentin; Lang, Michel; Vigneau, Sylvain

2015-04-01

River discharge is a crucial variable for Hydrology: as the output variable of most hydrologic models, it is used for sensitivity analyses, model structure identification, parameter estimation, data assimilation, prediction, etc. A major difficulty stems from the fact that river discharge is not measured continuously. Instead, discharge time series used by hydrologists are usually based on simple stage-discharge relations (rating curves) calibrated using a set of direct stage-discharge measurements (gaugings). In this presentation, we present a Bayesian approach (cf. Le Coz et al., 2014) to build such hydrometric rating curves, to estimate the associated uncertainty and to propagate this uncertainty to discharge time series. The three main steps of this approach are described: (1) Hydraulic analysis: identification of the hydraulic controls that govern the stage-discharge relation, identification of the rating curve equation and specification of prior distributions for the rating curve parameters; (2) Rating curve estimation: Bayesian inference of the rating curve parameters, accounting for the individual uncertainties of available gaugings, which often differ according to the discharge measurement procedure and the flow conditions; (3) Uncertainty propagation: quantification of the uncertainty in discharge time series, accounting for both the rating curve uncertainties and the uncertainty of recorded stage values. The rating curve uncertainties combine the parametric uncertainties and the remnant uncertainties that reflect the limited accuracy of the mathematical model used to simulate the physical stage-discharge relation. In addition, we also discuss current research activities, including the treatment of non-univocal stage-discharge relationships (e.g. due to hydraulic hysteresis, vegetation growth, sudden change of the geometry of the section, etc.). An operational version of the BaRatin software and its graphical interface are made available free of charge on request to the authors. J. Le Coz, B. Renard, L. Bonnifait, F. Branger, R. Le Boursicaud (2014). Combining hydraulic knowledge and uncertain gaugings in the estimation of hydrometric rating curves: a Bayesian approach, Journal of Hydrology, 509, 573-587.

SU-F-R-44: Modeling Lung SBRT Tumor Response Using Bayesian Network Averaging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diamant, A; Ybarra, N; Seuntjens, J

2016-06-15

Purpose: The prediction of tumor control after a patient receives lung SBRT (stereotactic body radiation therapy) has proven to be challenging, due to the complex interactions between an individual’s biology and dose-volume metrics. Many of these variables have predictive power when combined, a feature that we exploit using a graph modeling approach based on Bayesian networks. This provides a probabilistic framework that allows for accurate and visually intuitive predictive modeling. The aim of this study is to uncover possible interactions between an individual patient’s characteristics and generate a robust model capable of predicting said patient’s treatment outcome. Methods: We investigatedmore » a cohort of 32 prospective patients from multiple institutions whom had received curative SBRT to the lung. The number of patients exhibiting tumor failure was observed to be 7 (event rate of 22%). The serum concentration of 5 biomarkers previously associated with NSCLC (non-small cell lung cancer) was measured pre-treatment. A total of 21 variables were analyzed including: dose-volume metrics with BED (biologically effective dose) correction and clinical variables. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique estimated the posterior probability distribution of the potential graphical structures. The probability of tumor failure was then estimated by averaging the top 100 graphs and applying Baye’s rule. Results: The optimal Bayesian model generated throughout this study incorporated the PTV volume, the serum concentration of the biomarker EGFR (epidermal growth factor receptor) and prescription BED. This predictive model recorded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.94(1), providing better performance compared to competing methods in other literature. Conclusion: The use of biomarkers in conjunction with dose-volume metrics allows for the generation of a robust predictive model. The preliminary results of this report demonstrate that it is possible to accurately model the prognosis of an individual lung SBRT patient’s treatment.« less

Quantitative assessment of Pb sources in isotopic mixtures using a Bayesian mixing model.

PubMed

Longman, Jack; Veres, Daniel; Ersek, Vasile; Phillips, Donald L; Chauvel, Catherine; Tamas, Calin G

2018-04-18

Lead (Pb) isotopes provide valuable insights into the origin of Pb within a sample, typically allowing for reliable fingerprinting of their source. This is useful for a variety of applications, from tracing sources of pollution-related Pb, to the origins of Pb in archaeological artefacts. However, current approaches investigate source proportions via graphical means, or simple mixing models. As such, an approach, which quantitatively assesses source proportions and fingerprints the signature of analysed Pb, especially for larger numbers of sources, would be valuable. Here we use an advanced Bayesian isotope mixing model for three such applications: tracing dust sources in pre-anthropogenic environmental samples, tracking changing ore exploitation during the Roman period, and identifying the source of Pb in a Roman-age mining artefact. These examples indicate this approach can understand changing Pb sources deposited during both pre-anthropogenic times, when natural cycling of Pb dominated, and the Roman period, one marked by significant anthropogenic pollution. Our archaeometric investigation indicates clear input of Pb from Romanian ores previously speculated, but not proven, to have been the Pb source. Our approach can be applied to a range of disciplines, providing a new method for robustly tracing sources of Pb observed within a variety of environments.

Development of a Bayesian model to estimate health care outcomes in the severely wounded

PubMed Central

Stojadinovic, Alexander; Eberhardt, John; Brown, Trevor S; Hawksworth, Jason S; Gage, Frederick; Tadaki, Douglas K; Forsberg, Jonathan A; Davis, Thomas A; Potter, Benjamin K; Dunne, James R; Elster, E A

2010-01-01

Background: Graphical probabilistic models have the ability to provide insights as to how clinical factors are conditionally related. These models can be used to help us understand factors influencing health care outcomes and resource utilization, and to estimate morbidity and clinical outcomes in trauma patient populations. Study design: Thirty-two combat casualties with severe extremity injuries enrolled in a prospective observational study were analyzed using step-wise machine-learned Bayesian belief network (BBN) and step-wise logistic regression (LR). Models were evaluated using 10-fold cross-validation to calculate area-under-the-curve (AUC) from receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Results: Our BBN showed important associations between various factors in our data set that could not be developed using standard regression methods. Cross-validated ROC curve analysis showed that our BBN model was a robust representation of our data domain and that LR models trained on these findings were also robust: hospital-acquired infection (AUC: LR, 0.81; BBN, 0.79), intensive care unit length of stay (AUC: LR, 0.97; BBN, 0.81), and wound healing (AUC: LR, 0.91; BBN, 0.72) showed strong AUC. Conclusions: A BBN model can effectively represent clinical outcomes and biomarkers in patients hospitalized after severe wounding, and is confirmed by 10-fold cross-validation and further confirmed through logistic regression modeling. The method warrants further development and independent validation in other, more diverse patient populations. PMID:21197361

Bayesian networks for satellite payload testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Przytula, Krzysztof W.; Hagen, Frank; Yung, Kar

1999-11-01

Satellite payloads are fast increasing in complexity, resulting in commensurate growth in cost of manufacturing and operation. A need exists for a software tool, which would assist engineers in production and operation of satellite systems. We have designed and implemented a software tool, which performs part of this task. The tool aids a test engineer in debugging satellite payloads during system testing. At this stage of satellite integration and testing both the tested payload and the testing equipment represent complicated systems consisting of a very large number of components and devices. When an error is detected during execution of a test procedure, the tool presents to the engineer a ranked list of potential sources of the error and a list of recommended further tests. The engineer decides this on this basis if to perform some of the recommended additional test or replace the suspect component. The tool has been installed in payload testing facility. The tool is based on Bayesian networks, a graphical method of representing uncertainty in terms of probabilistic influences. The Bayesian network was configured using detailed flow diagrams of testing procedures and block diagrams of the payload and testing hardware. The conditional and prior probability values were initially obtained from experts and refined in later stages of design. The Bayesian network provided a very informative model of the payload and testing equipment and inspired many new ideas regarding the future test procedures and testing equipment configurations. The tool is the first step in developing a family of tools for various phases of satellite integration and operation.

A Bayesian Belief Network approach to assess the potential of non wood forest products for small scale forest owners

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vacik, Harald; Huber, Patrick; Hujala, Teppo; Kurtilla, Mikko; Wolfslehner, Bernhard

2015-04-01

It is an integral element of the European understanding of sustainable forest management to foster the design and marketing of forest products, non-wood forest products (NWFPs) and services that go beyond the production of timber. Despite the relevance of NWFPs in Europe, forest management and planning methods have been traditionally tailored towards wood and wood products, because most forest management models and silviculture techniques were developed to ensure a sustained production of timber. Although several approaches exist which explicitly consider NWFPs as management objectives in forest planning, specific models are needed for the assessment of their production potential in different environmental contexts and for different management regimes. Empirical data supporting a comprehensive assessment of the potential of NWFPs are rare, thus making development of statistical models particularly problematic. However, the complex causal relationships between the sustained production of NWFPs, the available ecological resources, as well as the organizational and the market potential of forest management regimes are well suited for knowledge-based expert models. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) are a kind of probabilistic graphical model that have become very popular to practitioners and scientists mainly due to the powerful probability theory involved, which makes BBNs suitable to deal with a wide range of environmental problems. In this contribution we present the development of a Bayesian belief network to assess the potential of NWFPs for small scale forest owners. A three stage iterative process with stakeholder and expert participation was used to develop the Bayesian Network within the frame of the StarTree Project. The group of participants varied in the stages of the modelling process. A core team, consisting of one technical expert and two domain experts was responsible for the entire modelling process as well as for the first prototype of the network structure, including nodes and relationships. A top-level causal network, was further decomposed to sub level networks. Stakeholder participation including a group of experts from different related subject areas was used in model verification and validation. We demonstrate that BBNs can be used to transfer expert knowledge from science to practice and thus have the ability to contribute to improved problem understanding of non-expert decision makers for a sustainable production of NWFPs.

Performance assessment of a Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS) for real-time flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biondi, D.; De Luca, D. L.

2013-02-01

SummaryThe paper evaluates, for a number of flood events, the performance of a Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS), with the aim of evaluating total uncertainty in real-time flood forecasting. The predictive uncertainty of future streamflow is estimated through the Bayesian integration of two separate processors. The former evaluates the propagation of input uncertainty on simulated river discharge, the latter computes the hydrological uncertainty of actual river discharge associated with all other possible sources of error. A stochastic model and a distributed rainfall-runoff model were assumed, respectively, for rainfall and hydrological response simulations. A case study was carried out for a small basin in the Calabria region (southern Italy). The performance assessment of the BFS was performed with adequate verification tools suited for probabilistic forecasts of continuous variables such as streamflow. Graphical tools and scalar metrics were used to evaluate several attributes of the forecast quality of the entire time-varying predictive distributions: calibration, sharpness, accuracy, and continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). Besides the overall system, which incorporates both sources of uncertainty, other hypotheses resulting from the BFS properties were examined, corresponding to (i) a perfect hydrological model; (ii) a non-informative rainfall forecast for predicting streamflow; and (iii) a perfect input forecast. The results emphasize the importance of using different diagnostic approaches to perform comprehensive analyses of predictive distributions, to arrive at a multifaceted view of the attributes of the prediction. For the case study, the selected criteria revealed the interaction of the different sources of error, in particular the crucial role of the hydrological uncertainty processor when compensating, at the cost of wider forecast intervals, for the unreliable and biased predictive distribution resulting from the Precipitation Uncertainty Processor.

Using a Bayesian network to clarify areas requiring research in a host-pathogen system.

PubMed

Bower, D S; Mengersen, K; Alford, R A; Schwarzkopf, L

2017-12-01

Bayesian network analyses can be used to interactively change the strength of effect of variables in a model to explore complex relationships in new ways. In doing so, they allow one to identify influential nodes that are not well studied empirically so that future research can be prioritized. We identified relationships in host and pathogen biology to examine disease-driven declines of amphibians associated with amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We constructed a Bayesian network consisting of behavioral, genetic, physiological, and environmental variables that influence disease and used them to predict host population trends. We varied the impacts of specific variables in the model to reveal factors with the most influence on host population trend. The behavior of the nodes (the way in which the variables probabilistically responded to changes in states of the parents, which are the nodes or variables that directly influenced them in the graphical model) was consistent with published results. The frog population had a 49% probability of decline when all states were set at their original values, and this probability increased when body temperatures were cold, the immune system was not suppressing infection, and the ambient environment was conducive to growth of B. dendrobatidis. These findings suggest the construction of our model reflected the complex relationships characteristic of host-pathogen interactions. Changes to climatic variables alone did not strongly influence the probability of population decline, which suggests that climate interacts with other factors such as the capacity of the frog immune system to suppress disease. Changes to the adaptive immune system and disease reservoirs had a large effect on the population trend, but there was little empirical information available for model construction. Our model inputs can be used as a base to examine other systems, and our results show that such analyses are useful tools for reviewing existing literature, identifying links poorly supported by evidence, and understanding complexities in emerging infectious-disease systems. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Autonomic Closure for Turbulent Flows Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doronina, Olga; Christopher, Jason; Hamlington, Peter; Dahm, Werner

2017-11-01

Autonomic closure is a new technique for achieving fully adaptive and physically accurate closure of coarse-grained turbulent flow governing equations, such as those solved in large eddy simulations (LES). Although autonomic closure has been shown in recent a priori tests to more accurately represent unclosed terms than do dynamic versions of traditional LES models, the computational cost of the approach makes it challenging to implement for simulations of practical turbulent flows at realistically high Reynolds numbers. The optimization step used in the approach introduces large matrices that must be inverted and is highly memory intensive. In order to reduce memory requirements, here we propose to use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) in place of the optimization step, thereby yielding a computationally-efficient implementation of autonomic closure that trades memory-intensive for processor-intensive computations. The latter challenge can be overcome as co-processors such as general purpose graphical processing units become increasingly available on current generation petascale and exascale supercomputers. In this work, we outline the formulation of ABC-enabled autonomic closure and present initial results demonstrating the accuracy and computational cost of the approach.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Da Rio, Nicola; Robberto, Massimo, E-mail: ndario@rssd.esa.int

We present the Tool for Astrophysical Data Analysis (TA-DA), a new software aimed to greatly simplify and improve the analysis of stellar photometric data in comparison with theoretical models, and allow the derivation of stellar parameters from multi-band photometry. Its flexibility allows one to address a number of such problems: from the interpolation of stellar models, or sets of stellar physical parameters in general, to the computation of synthetic photometry in arbitrary filters or units; from the analysis of observed color-magnitude diagrams to a Bayesian derivation of stellar parameters (and extinction) based on multi-band data. TA-DA is available as amore » pre-compiled Interactive Data Language widget-based application; its graphical user interface makes it considerably user-friendly. In this paper, we describe the software and its functionalities.« less

Getting more from accuracy and response time data: methods for fitting the linear ballistic accumulator.

PubMed

Donkin, Chris; Averell, Lee; Brown, Scott; Heathcote, Andrew

2009-11-01

Cognitive models of the decision process provide greater insight into response time and accuracy than do standard ANOVA techniques. However, such models can be mathematically and computationally difficult to apply. We provide instructions and computer code for three methods for estimating the parameters of the linear ballistic accumulator (LBA), a new and computationally tractable model of decisions between two or more choices. These methods-a Microsoft Excel worksheet, scripts for the statistical program R, and code for implementation of the LBA into the Bayesian sampling software WinBUGS-vary in their flexibility and user accessibility. We also provide scripts in R that produce a graphical summary of the data and model predictions. In a simulation study, we explored the effect of sample size on parameter recovery for each method. The materials discussed in this article may be downloaded as a supplement from http://brm.psychonomic-journals.org/content/supplemental.

Markov blanket-based approach for learning multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers: an application to predict the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) from the 39-item Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire (PDQ-39).

PubMed

Borchani, Hanen; Bielza, Concha; Martı Nez-Martı N, Pablo; Larrañaga, Pedro

2012-12-01

Multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers (MBCs) are probabilistic graphical models recently proposed to deal with multi-dimensional classification problems, where each instance in the data set has to be assigned to more than one class variable. In this paper, we propose a Markov blanket-based approach for learning MBCs from data. Basically, it consists of determining the Markov blanket around each class variable using the HITON algorithm, then specifying the directionality over the MBC subgraphs. Our approach is applied to the prediction problem of the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) from the 39-item Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire (PDQ-39) in order to estimate the health-related quality of life of Parkinson's patients. Fivefold cross-validation experiments were carried out on randomly generated synthetic data sets, Yeast data set, as well as on a real-world Parkinson's disease data set containing 488 patients. The experimental study, including comparison with additional Bayesian network-based approaches, back propagation for multi-label learning, multi-label k-nearest neighbor, multinomial logistic regression, ordinary least squares, and censored least absolute deviations, shows encouraging results in terms of predictive accuracy as well as the identification of dependence relationships among class and feature variables. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis and meta-analysis of single-case designs: an introduction.

PubMed

Shadish, William R

2014-04-01

The last 10 years have seen great progress in the analysis and meta-analysis of single-case designs (SCDs). This special issue includes five articles that provide an overview of current work on that topic, including standardized mean difference statistics, multilevel models, Bayesian statistics, and generalized additive models. Each article analyzes a common example across articles and presents syntax or macros for how to do them. These articles are followed by commentaries from single-case design researchers and journal editors. This introduction briefly describes each article and then discusses several issues that must be addressed before we can know what analyses will eventually be best to use in SCD research. These issues include modeling trend, modeling error covariances, computing standardized effect size estimates, assessing statistical power, incorporating more accurate models of outcome distributions, exploring whether Bayesian statistics can improve estimation given the small samples common in SCDs, and the need for annotated syntax and graphical user interfaces that make complex statistics accessible to SCD researchers. The article then discusses reasons why SCD researchers are likely to incorporate statistical analyses into their research more often in the future, including changing expectations and contingencies regarding SCD research from outside SCD communities, changes and diversity within SCD communities, corrections of erroneous beliefs about the relationship between SCD research and statistics, and demonstrations of how statistics can help SCD researchers better meet their goals. Copyright © 2013 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Verification of Bayesian Clustering in Travel Behaviour Research – First Step to Macroanalysis of Travel Behaviour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satra, P.; Carsky, J.

2018-04-01

Our research is looking at the travel behaviour from a macroscopic view, taking one municipality as a basic unit. The travel behaviour of one municipality as a whole is becoming one piece of a data in the research of travel behaviour of a larger area, perhaps a country. A data pre-processing is used to cluster the municipalities in groups, which show similarities in their travel behaviour. Such groups can be then researched for reasons of their prevailing pattern of travel behaviour without any distortion caused by municipalities with a different pattern. This paper deals with actual settings of the clustering process, which is based on Bayesian statistics, particularly the mixture model. An optimization of the settings parameters based on correlation of pointer model parameters and relative number of data in clusters is helpful, however not fully reliable method. Thus, method for graphic representation of clusters needs to be developed in order to check their quality. A training of the setting parameters in 2D has proven to be a beneficial method, because it allows visual control of the produced clusters. The clustering better be applied on separate groups of municipalities, where competition of only identical transport modes can be found.

Accommodating Uncertainty in Prior Distributions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Picard, Richard Roy; Vander Wiel, Scott Alan

2017-01-19

A fundamental premise of Bayesian methodology is that a priori information is accurately summarized by a single, precisely de ned prior distribution. In many cases, especially involving informative priors, this premise is false, and the (mis)application of Bayes methods produces posterior quantities whose apparent precisions are highly misleading. We examine the implications of uncertainty in prior distributions, and present graphical methods for dealing with them.

EEG and MEG data analysis in SPM8.

PubMed

Litvak, Vladimir; Mattout, Jérémie; Kiebel, Stefan; Phillips, Christophe; Henson, Richard; Kilner, James; Barnes, Gareth; Oostenveld, Robert; Daunizeau, Jean; Flandin, Guillaume; Penny, Will; Friston, Karl

2011-01-01

SPM is a free and open source software written in MATLAB (The MathWorks, Inc.). In addition to standard M/EEG preprocessing, we presently offer three main analysis tools: (i) statistical analysis of scalp-maps, time-frequency images, and volumetric 3D source reconstruction images based on the general linear model, with correction for multiple comparisons using random field theory; (ii) Bayesian M/EEG source reconstruction, including support for group studies, simultaneous EEG and MEG, and fMRI priors; (iii) dynamic causal modelling (DCM), an approach combining neural modelling with data analysis for which there are several variants dealing with evoked responses, steady state responses (power spectra and cross-spectra), induced responses, and phase coupling. SPM8 is integrated with the FieldTrip toolbox , making it possible for users to combine a variety of standard analysis methods with new schemes implemented in SPM and build custom analysis tools using powerful graphical user interface (GUI) and batching tools.

EEG and MEG Data Analysis in SPM8

PubMed Central

Litvak, Vladimir; Mattout, Jérémie; Kiebel, Stefan; Phillips, Christophe; Henson, Richard; Kilner, James; Barnes, Gareth; Oostenveld, Robert; Daunizeau, Jean; Flandin, Guillaume; Penny, Will; Friston, Karl

2011-01-01

SPM is a free and open source software written in MATLAB (The MathWorks, Inc.). In addition to standard M/EEG preprocessing, we presently offer three main analysis tools: (i) statistical analysis of scalp-maps, time-frequency images, and volumetric 3D source reconstruction images based on the general linear model, with correction for multiple comparisons using random field theory; (ii) Bayesian M/EEG source reconstruction, including support for group studies, simultaneous EEG and MEG, and fMRI priors; (iii) dynamic causal modelling (DCM), an approach combining neural modelling with data analysis for which there are several variants dealing with evoked responses, steady state responses (power spectra and cross-spectra), induced responses, and phase coupling. SPM8 is integrated with the FieldTrip toolbox , making it possible for users to combine a variety of standard analysis methods with new schemes implemented in SPM and build custom analysis tools using powerful graphical user interface (GUI) and batching tools. PMID:21437221

Predicting Flavonoid UGT Regioselectivity

PubMed Central

Jackson, Rhydon; Knisley, Debra; McIntosh, Cecilia; Pfeiffer, Phillip

2011-01-01

Machine learning was applied to a challenging and biologically significant protein classification problem: the prediction of avonoid UGT acceptor regioselectivity from primary sequence. Novel indices characterizing graphical models of residues were proposed and found to be widely distributed among existing amino acid indices and to cluster residues appropriately. UGT subsequences biochemically linked to regioselectivity were modeled as sets of index sequences. Several learning techniques incorporating these UGT models were compared with classifications based on standard sequence alignment scores. These techniques included an application of time series distance functions to protein classification. Time series distances defined on the index sequences were used in nearest neighbor and support vector machine classifiers. Additionally, Bayesian neural network classifiers were applied to the index sequences. The experiments identified improvements over the nearest neighbor and support vector machine classifications relying on standard alignment similarity scores, as well as strong correlations between specific subsequences and regioselectivities. PMID:21747849

Bayesian methods to determine performance differences and to quantify variability among centers in multi-center trials: the IHAST trial.

PubMed

Bayman, Emine O; Chaloner, Kathryn M; Hindman, Bradley J; Todd, Michael M

2013-01-16

To quantify the variability among centers and to identify centers whose performance are potentially outside of normal variability in the primary outcome and to propose a guideline that they are outliers. Novel statistical methodology using a Bayesian hierarchical model is used. Bayesian methods for estimation and outlier detection are applied assuming an additive random center effect on the log odds of response: centers are similar but different (exchangeable). The Intraoperative Hypothermia for Aneurysm Surgery Trial (IHAST) is used as an example. Analyses were adjusted for treatment, age, gender, aneurysm location, World Federation of Neurological Surgeons scale, Fisher score and baseline NIH stroke scale scores. Adjustments for differences in center characteristics were also examined. Graphical and numerical summaries of the between-center standard deviation (sd) and variability, as well as the identification of potential outliers are implemented. In the IHAST, the center-to-center variation in the log odds of favorable outcome at each center is consistent with a normal distribution with posterior sd of 0.538 (95% credible interval: 0.397 to 0.726) after adjusting for the effects of important covariates. Outcome differences among centers show no outlying centers. Four potential outlying centers were identified but did not meet the proposed guideline for declaring them as outlying. Center characteristics (number of subjects enrolled from the center, geographical location, learning over time, nitrous oxide, and temporary clipping use) did not predict outcome, but subject and disease characteristics did. Bayesian hierarchical methods allow for determination of whether outcomes from a specific center differ from others and whether specific clinical practices predict outcome, even when some centers/subgroups have relatively small sample sizes. In the IHAST no outlying centers were found. The estimated variability between centers was moderately large.

Sensor fusion V; Proceedings of the Meeting, Boston, MA, Nov. 15-17, 1992

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schenker, Paul S. (Editor)

1992-01-01

Topics addressed include 3D object perception, human-machine interface in multisensor systems, sensor fusion architecture, fusion of multiple and distributed sensors, interface and decision models for sensor fusion, computational networks, simple sensing for complex action, multisensor-based control, and metrology and calibration of multisensor systems. Particular attention is given to controlling 3D objects by sketching 2D views, the graphical simulation and animation environment for flexible structure robots, designing robotic systems from sensorimotor modules, cylindrical object reconstruction from a sequence of images, an accurate estimation of surface properties by integrating information using Bayesian networks, an adaptive fusion model for a distributed detection system, multiple concurrent object descriptions in support of autonomous navigation, robot control with multiple sensors and heuristic knowledge, and optical array detectors for image sensors calibration. (No individual items are abstracted in this volume)

Detangling complex relationships in forensic data: principles and use of causal networks and their application to clinical forensic science.

PubMed

Lefèvre, Thomas; Lepresle, Aude; Chariot, Patrick

2015-09-01

The search for complex, nonlinear relationships and causality in data is hindered by the availability of techniques in many domains, including forensic science. Linear multivariable techniques are useful but present some shortcomings. In the past decade, Bayesian approaches have been introduced in forensic science. To date, authors have mainly focused on providing an alternative to classical techniques for quantifying effects and dealing with uncertainty. Causal networks, including Bayesian networks, can help detangle complex relationships in data. A Bayesian network estimates the joint probability distribution of data and graphically displays dependencies between variables and the circulation of information between these variables. In this study, we illustrate the interest in utilizing Bayesian networks for dealing with complex data through an application in clinical forensic science. Evaluating the functional impairment of assault survivors is a complex task for which few determinants are known. As routinely estimated in France, the duration of this impairment can be quantified by days of 'Total Incapacity to Work' ('Incapacité totale de travail,' ITT). In this study, we used a Bayesian network approach to identify the injury type, victim category and time to evaluation as the main determinants of the 'Total Incapacity to Work' (TIW). We computed the conditional probabilities associated with the TIW node and its parents. We compared this approach with a multivariable analysis, and the results of both techniques were converging. Thus, Bayesian networks should be considered a reliable means to detangle complex relationships in data.

Moving beyond qualitative evaluations of Bayesian models of cognition.

PubMed

Hemmer, Pernille; Tauber, Sean; Steyvers, Mark

2015-06-01

Bayesian models of cognition provide a powerful way to understand the behavior and goals of individuals from a computational point of view. Much of the focus in the Bayesian cognitive modeling approach has been on qualitative model evaluations, where predictions from the models are compared to data that is often averaged over individuals. In many cognitive tasks, however, there are pervasive individual differences. We introduce an approach to directly infer individual differences related to subjective mental representations within the framework of Bayesian models of cognition. In this approach, Bayesian data analysis methods are used to estimate cognitive parameters and motivate the inference process within a Bayesian cognitive model. We illustrate this integrative Bayesian approach on a model of memory. We apply the model to behavioral data from a memory experiment involving the recall of heights of people. A cross-validation analysis shows that the Bayesian memory model with inferred subjective priors predicts withheld data better than a Bayesian model where the priors are based on environmental statistics. In addition, the model with inferred priors at the individual subject level led to the best overall generalization performance, suggesting that individual differences are important to consider in Bayesian models of cognition.

A Comparison of FPGA and GPGPU Designs for Bayesian Occupancy Filters.

PubMed

Medina, Luis; Diez-Ochoa, Miguel; Correal, Raul; Cuenca-Asensi, Sergio; Serrano, Alejandro; Godoy, Jorge; Martínez-Álvarez, Antonio; Villagra, Jorge

2017-11-11

Grid-based perception techniques in the automotive sector based on fusing information from different sensors and their robust perceptions of the environment are proliferating in the industry. However, one of the main drawbacks of these techniques is the traditionally prohibitive, high computing performance that is required for embedded automotive systems. In this work, the capabilities of new computing architectures that embed these algorithms are assessed in a real car. The paper compares two ad hoc optimized designs of the Bayesian Occupancy Filter; one for General Purpose Graphics Processing Unit (GPGPU) and the other for Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA). The resulting implementations are compared in terms of development effort, accuracy and performance, using datasets from a realistic simulator and from a real automated vehicle.

Power plant fault detection using artificial neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thanakodi, Suresh; Nazar, Nazatul Shiema Moh; Joini, Nur Fazriana; Hidzir, Hidzrin Dayana Mohd; Awira, Mohammad Zulfikar Khairul

2018-02-01

The fault that commonly occurs in power plants is due to various factors that affect the system outage. There are many types of faults in power plants such as single line to ground fault, double line to ground fault, and line to line fault. The primary aim of this paper is to diagnose the fault in 14 buses power plants by using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The Multilayered Perceptron Network (MLP) that detection trained utilized the offline training methods such as Gradient Descent Backpropagation (GDBP), Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), and Bayesian Regularization (BR). The best method is used to build the Graphical User Interface (GUI). The modelling of 14 buses power plant, network training, and GUI used the MATLAB software.

Development and comparison of Bayesian modularization method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Xu, C.-Y.; Engeland, K.

2012-04-01

With respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, different approaches have been used in hydrological models. Bayesian method is one of the most widely used methods for uncertainty assessment of hydrological models, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayesian theorem. However, none of these applications can well treat the uncertainty in extreme flows of hydrological models' simulations. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization method approach in uncertainty assessment of conceptual hydrological models by considering the extreme flows. It includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by a new Bayesian modularization method approach and traditional Bayesian models using the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions are used in combination with traditional Bayesian: the AR (1) plus Normal and time period independent model (Model 1), the AR (1) plus Normal and time period dependent model (Model 2) and the AR (1) plus multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that (1) the simulations derived from Bayesian modularization method are more accurate with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value, and (2) the Bayesian modularization method performs best in uncertainty estimates of entire flows and in terms of the application and computational efficiency. The study thus introduces a new approach for reducing the extreme flow's effect on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian. Keywords: extreme flow, uncertainty assessment, Bayesian modularization, hydrological model, WASMOD

Estimating extreme river discharges in Europe through a Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paprotny, Dominik; Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo

2017-06-01

Large-scale hydrological modelling of flood hazards requires adequate extreme discharge data. In practise, models based on physics are applied alongside those utilizing only statistical analysis. The former require enormous computational power, while the latter are mostly limited in accuracy and spatial coverage. In this paper we introduce an alternate, statistical approach based on Bayesian networks (BNs), a graphical model for dependent random variables. We use a non-parametric BN to describe the joint distribution of extreme discharges in European rivers and variables representing the geographical characteristics of their catchments. Annual maxima of daily discharges from more than 1800 river gauges (stations with catchment areas ranging from 1.4 to 807 000 km2) were collected, together with information on terrain, land use and local climate. The (conditional) correlations between the variables are modelled through copulas, with the dependency structure defined in the network. The results show that using this method, mean annual maxima and return periods of discharges could be estimated with an accuracy similar to existing studies using physical models for Europe and better than a comparable global statistical model. Performance of the model varies slightly between regions of Europe, but is consistent between different time periods, and remains the same in a split-sample validation. Though discharge prediction under climate change is not the main scope of this paper, the BN was applied to a large domain covering all sizes of rivers in the continent both for present and future climate, as an example. Results show substantial variation in the influence of climate change on river discharges. The model can be used to provide quick estimates of extreme discharges at any location for the purpose of obtaining input information for hydraulic modelling.

A Bayesian network analysis of posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms in adults reporting childhood sexual abuse

PubMed Central

McNally, Richard J.; Heeren, Alexandre; Robinaugh, Donald J.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: The network approach to mental disorders offers a novel framework for conceptualizing posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) as a causal system of interacting symptoms. Objective: In this study, we extended this work by estimating the structure of relations among PTSD symptoms in adults reporting personal histories of childhood sexual abuse (CSA; N = 179).   Method: We employed two complementary methods. First, using the graphical LASSO, we computed a sparse, regularized partial correlation network revealing associations (edges) between pairs of PTSD symptoms (nodes). Next, using a Bayesian approach, we computed a directed acyclic graph (DAG) to estimate a directed, potentially causal model of the relations among symptoms. Results: For the first network, we found that physiological reactivity to reminders of trauma, dreams about the trauma, and lost of interest in previously enjoyed activities were highly central nodes. However, stability analyses suggest that these findings were unstable across subsets of our sample. The DAG suggests that becoming physiologically reactive and upset in response to reminders of the trauma may be key drivers of other symptoms in adult survivors of CSA. Conclusions: Our study illustrates the strengths and limitations of these network analytic approaches to PTSD. PMID:29038690

A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach to Test Equating

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karabatsos, George; Walker, Stephen G.

2009-01-01

A Bayesian nonparametric model is introduced for score equating. It is applicable to all major equating designs, and has advantages over previous equating models. Unlike the previous models, the Bayesian model accounts for positive dependence between distributions of scores from two tests. The Bayesian model and the previous equating models are…

Model Diagnostics for Bayesian Networks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sinharay, Sandip

2006-01-01

Bayesian networks are frequently used in educational assessments primarily for learning about students' knowledge and skills. There is a lack of works on assessing fit of Bayesian networks. This article employs the posterior predictive model checking method, a popular Bayesian model checking tool, to assess fit of simple Bayesian networks. A…

Bayesian network modeling: A case study of an epidemiologic system analysis of cardiovascular risk.

PubMed

Fuster-Parra, P; Tauler, P; Bennasar-Veny, M; Ligęza, A; López-González, A A; Aguiló, A

2016-04-01

An extensive, in-depth study of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) seems to be of crucial importance in the research of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in order to prevent (or reduce) the chance of developing or dying from CVD. The main focus of data analysis is on the use of models able to discover and understand the relationships between different CVRF. In this paper a report on applying Bayesian network (BN) modeling to discover the relationships among thirteen relevant epidemiological features of heart age domain in order to analyze cardiovascular lost years (CVLY), cardiovascular risk score (CVRS), and metabolic syndrome (MetS) is presented. Furthermore, the induced BN was used to make inference taking into account three reasoning patterns: causal reasoning, evidential reasoning, and intercausal reasoning. Application of BN tools has led to discovery of several direct and indirect relationships between different CVRF. The BN analysis showed several interesting results, among them: CVLY was highly influenced by smoking being the group of men the one with highest risk in CVLY; MetS was highly influence by physical activity (PA) being again the group of men the one with highest risk in MetS, and smoking did not show any influence. BNs produce an intuitive, transparent, graphical representation of the relationships between different CVRF. The ability of BNs to predict new scenarios when hypothetical information is introduced makes BN modeling an Artificial Intelligence (AI) tool of special interest in epidemiological studies. As CVD is multifactorial the use of BNs seems to be an adequate modeling tool. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

EuroForMix: An open source software based on a continuous model to evaluate STR DNA profiles from a mixture of contributors with artefacts.

PubMed

Bleka, Øyvind; Storvik, Geir; Gill, Peter

2016-03-01

We have released a software named EuroForMix to analyze STR DNA profiles in a user-friendly graphical user interface. The software implements a model to explain the allelic peak height on a continuous scale in order to carry out weight-of-evidence calculations for profiles which could be from a mixture of contributors. Through a properly parameterized model we are able to do inference on mixture proportions, the peak height properties, stutter proportion and degradation. In addition, EuroForMix includes models for allele drop-out, allele drop-in and sub-population structure. EuroForMix supports two inference approaches for likelihood ratio calculations. The first approach uses maximum likelihood estimation of the unknown parameters. The second approach is Bayesian based which requires prior distributions to be specified for the parameters involved. The user may specify any number of known and unknown contributors in the model, however we find that there is a practical computing time limit which restricts the model to a maximum of four unknown contributors. EuroForMix is the first freely open source, continuous model (accommodating peak height, stutter, drop-in, drop-out, population substructure and degradation), to be reported in the literature. It therefore serves an important purpose to act as an unrestricted platform to compare different solutions that are available. The implementation of the continuous model used in the software showed close to identical results to the R-package DNAmixtures, which requires a HUGIN Expert license to be used. An additional feature in EuroForMix is the ability for the user to adapt the Bayesian inference framework by incorporating their own prior information. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study is to explore Bayesian model averaging in the propensity score context. Previous research on Bayesian propensity score analysis does not take into account model uncertainty. In this regard, an internally consistent Bayesian framework for model building and estimation must also account for model uncertainty. The…

Stochastic inference with spiking neurons in the high-conductance state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrovici, Mihai A.; Bill, Johannes; Bytschok, Ilja; Schemmel, Johannes; Meier, Karlheinz

2016-10-01

The highly variable dynamics of neocortical circuits observed in vivo have been hypothesized to represent a signature of ongoing stochastic inference but stand in apparent contrast to the deterministic response of neurons measured in vitro. Based on a propagation of the membrane autocorrelation across spike bursts, we provide an analytical derivation of the neural activation function that holds for a large parameter space, including the high-conductance state. On this basis, we show how an ensemble of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons with conductance-based synapses embedded in a spiking environment can attain the correct firing statistics for sampling from a well-defined target distribution. For recurrent networks, we examine convergence toward stationarity in computer simulations and demonstrate sample-based Bayesian inference in a mixed graphical model. This points to a new computational role of high-conductance states and establishes a rigorous link between deterministic neuron models and functional stochastic dynamics on the network level.

Intelligent tutoring system for clinical reasoning skill acquisition in dental students.

PubMed

Suebnukarn, Siriwan

2009-10-01

Learning clinical reasoning is an important core activity of the modern dental curriculum. This article describes an intelligent tutoring system (ITS) for clinical reasoning skill acquisition. The system is designed to provide an experience that emulates that of live human-tutored problem-based learning (PBL) sessions as much as possible, while at the same time permitting the students to participate collaboratively from disparate locations. The system uses Bayesian networks to model individual student knowledge and activity, as well as that of the group. Tutoring algorithms use the models to generate tutoring hints. The system incorporates a multimodal interface that integrates text and graphics so as to provide a rich communication channel between the students and the system, as well as among students in the group. Comparison of learning outcomes shows that student clinical reasoning gains from the ITS are similar to those obtained from human-tutored sessions.

Massive parallelization of serial inference algorithms for a complex generalized linear model

PubMed Central

Suchard, Marc A.; Simpson, Shawn E.; Zorych, Ivan; Ryan, Patrick; Madigan, David

2014-01-01

Following a series of high-profile drug safety disasters in recent years, many countries are redoubling their efforts to ensure the safety of licensed medical products. Large-scale observational databases such as claims databases or electronic health record systems are attracting particular attention in this regard, but present significant methodological and computational concerns. In this paper we show how high-performance statistical computation, including graphics processing units, relatively inexpensive highly parallel computing devices, can enable complex methods in large databases. We focus on optimization and massive parallelization of cyclic coordinate descent approaches to fit a conditioned generalized linear model involving tens of millions of observations and thousands of predictors in a Bayesian context. We find orders-of-magnitude improvement in overall run-time. Coordinate descent approaches are ubiquitous in high-dimensional statistics and the algorithms we propose open up exciting new methodological possibilities with the potential to significantly improve drug safety. PMID:25328363

A Parallel and Incremental Approach for Data-Intensive Learning of Bayesian Networks.

PubMed

Yue, Kun; Fang, Qiyu; Wang, Xiaoling; Li, Jin; Liu, Weiyi

2015-12-01

Bayesian network (BN) has been adopted as the underlying model for representing and inferring uncertain knowledge. As the basis of realistic applications centered on probabilistic inferences, learning a BN from data is a critical subject of machine learning, artificial intelligence, and big data paradigms. Currently, it is necessary to extend the classical methods for learning BNs with respect to data-intensive computing or in cloud environments. In this paper, we propose a parallel and incremental approach for data-intensive learning of BNs from massive, distributed, and dynamically changing data by extending the classical scoring and search algorithm and using MapReduce. First, we adopt the minimum description length as the scoring metric and give the two-pass MapReduce-based algorithms for computing the required marginal probabilities and scoring the candidate graphical model from sample data. Then, we give the corresponding strategy for extending the classical hill-climbing algorithm to obtain the optimal structure, as well as that for storing a BN by pairs. Further, in view of the dynamic characteristics of the changing data, we give the concept of influence degree to measure the coincidence of the current BN with new data, and then propose the corresponding two-pass MapReduce-based algorithms for BNs incremental learning. Experimental results show the efficiency, scalability, and effectiveness of our methods.

Data-driven confounder selection via Markov and Bayesian networks.

PubMed

Häggström, Jenny

2018-06-01

To unbiasedly estimate a causal effect on an outcome unconfoundedness is often assumed. If there is sufficient knowledge on the underlying causal structure then existing confounder selection criteria can be used to select subsets of the observed pretreatment covariates, X, sufficient for unconfoundedness, if such subsets exist. Here, estimation of these target subsets is considered when the underlying causal structure is unknown. The proposed method is to model the causal structure by a probabilistic graphical model, for example, a Markov or Bayesian network, estimate this graph from observed data and select the target subsets given the estimated graph. The approach is evaluated by simulation both in a high-dimensional setting where unconfoundedness holds given X and in a setting where unconfoundedness only holds given subsets of X. Several common target subsets are investigated and the selected subsets are compared with respect to accuracy in estimating the average causal effect. The proposed method is implemented with existing software that can easily handle high-dimensional data, in terms of large samples and large number of covariates. The results from the simulation study show that, if unconfoundedness holds given X, this approach is very successful in selecting the target subsets, outperforming alternative approaches based on random forests and LASSO, and that the subset estimating the target subset containing all causes of outcome yields smallest MSE in the average causal effect estimation. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Nonparametric analysis of Minnesota spruce and aspen tree data and LANDSAT data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scott, D. W.; Jee, R.

1984-01-01

The application of nonparametric methods in data-intensive problems faced by NASA is described. The theoretical development of efficient multivariate density estimators and the novel use of color graphics workstations are reviewed. The use of nonparametric density estimates for data representation and for Bayesian classification are described and illustrated. Progress in building a data analysis system in a workstation environment is reviewed and preliminary runs presented.

Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data.

PubMed

Guo, Xuan; Liu, Bing; Chen, Le; Chen, Guantao; Pan, Yi; Zhang, Jing

2016-01-01

This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM), Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM), and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM), and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

A Comparison of FPGA and GPGPU Designs for Bayesian Occupancy Filters

PubMed Central

Medina, Luis; Diez-Ochoa, Miguel; Correal, Raul; Cuenca-Asensi, Sergio; Godoy, Jorge; Martínez-Álvarez, Antonio

2017-01-01

Grid-based perception techniques in the automotive sector based on fusing information from different sensors and their robust perceptions of the environment are proliferating in the industry. However, one of the main drawbacks of these techniques is the traditionally prohibitive, high computing performance that is required for embedded automotive systems. In this work, the capabilities of new computing architectures that embed these algorithms are assessed in a real car. The paper compares two ad hoc optimized designs of the Bayesian Occupancy Filter; one for General Purpose Graphics Processing Unit (GPGPU) and the other for Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA). The resulting implementations are compared in terms of development effort, accuracy and performance, using datasets from a realistic simulator and from a real automated vehicle. PMID:29137137

Transmembrane Topology and Signal Peptide Prediction Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

PubMed Central

Reynolds, Sheila M.; Käll, Lukas; Riffle, Michael E.; Bilmes, Jeff A.; Noble, William Stafford

2008-01-01

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been successfully applied to the tasks of transmembrane protein topology prediction and signal peptide prediction. In this paper we expand upon this work by making use of the more powerful class of dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). Our model, Philius, is inspired by a previously published HMM, Phobius, and combines a signal peptide submodel with a transmembrane submodel. We introduce a two-stage DBN decoder that combines the power of posterior decoding with the grammar constraints of Viterbi-style decoding. Philius also provides protein type, segment, and topology confidence metrics to aid in the interpretation of the predictions. We report a relative improvement of 13% over Phobius in full-topology prediction accuracy on transmembrane proteins, and a sensitivity and specificity of 0.96 in detecting signal peptides. We also show that our confidence metrics correlate well with the observed precision. In addition, we have made predictions on all 6.3 million proteins in the Yeast Resource Center (YRC) database. This large-scale study provides an overall picture of the relative numbers of proteins that include a signal-peptide and/or one or more transmembrane segments as well as a valuable resource for the scientific community. All DBNs are implemented using the Graphical Models Toolkit. Source code for the models described here is available at http://noble.gs.washington.edu/proj/philius. A Philius Web server is available at http://www.yeastrc.org/philius, and the predictions on the YRC database are available at http://www.yeastrc.org/pdr. PMID:18989393

Bayesian structural equation modeling in sport and exercise psychology.

PubMed

Stenling, Andreas; Ivarsson, Andreas; Johnson, Urban; Lindwall, Magnus

2015-08-01

Bayesian statistics is on the rise in mainstream psychology, but applications in sport and exercise psychology research are scarce. In this article, the foundations of Bayesian analysis are introduced, and we will illustrate how to apply Bayesian structural equation modeling in a sport and exercise psychology setting. More specifically, we contrasted a confirmatory factor analysis on the Sport Motivation Scale II estimated with the most commonly used estimator, maximum likelihood, and a Bayesian approach with weakly informative priors for cross-loadings and correlated residuals. The results indicated that the model with Bayesian estimation and weakly informative priors provided a good fit to the data, whereas the model estimated with a maximum likelihood estimator did not produce a well-fitting model. The reasons for this discrepancy between maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation are discussed as well as potential advantages and caveats with the Bayesian approach.

Bayesian model reduction and empirical Bayes for group (DCM) studies

PubMed Central

Friston, Karl J.; Litvak, Vladimir; Oswal, Ashwini; Razi, Adeel; Stephan, Klaas E.; van Wijk, Bernadette C.M.; Ziegler, Gabriel; Zeidman, Peter

2016-01-01

This technical note describes some Bayesian procedures for the analysis of group studies that use nonlinear models at the first (within-subject) level – e.g., dynamic causal models – and linear models at subsequent (between-subject) levels. Its focus is on using Bayesian model reduction to finesse the inversion of multiple models of a single dataset or a single (hierarchical or empirical Bayes) model of multiple datasets. These applications of Bayesian model reduction allow one to consider parametric random effects and make inferences about group effects very efficiently (in a few seconds). We provide the relatively straightforward theoretical background to these procedures and illustrate their application using a worked example. This example uses a simulated mismatch negativity study of schizophrenia. We illustrate the robustness of Bayesian model reduction to violations of the (commonly used) Laplace assumption in dynamic causal modelling and show how its recursive application can facilitate both classical and Bayesian inference about group differences. Finally, we consider the application of these empirical Bayesian procedures to classification and prediction. PMID:26569570

An introduction to using Bayesian linear regression with clinical data.

PubMed

Baldwin, Scott A; Larson, Michael J

2017-11-01

Statistical training psychology focuses on frequentist methods. Bayesian methods are an alternative to standard frequentist methods. This article provides researchers with an introduction to fundamental ideas in Bayesian modeling. We use data from an electroencephalogram (EEG) and anxiety study to illustrate Bayesian models. Specifically, the models examine the relationship between error-related negativity (ERN), a particular event-related potential, and trait anxiety. Methodological topics covered include: how to set up a regression model in a Bayesian framework, specifying priors, examining convergence of the model, visualizing and interpreting posterior distributions, interval estimates, expected and predicted values, and model comparison tools. We also discuss situations where Bayesian methods can outperform frequentist methods as well has how to specify more complicated regression models. Finally, we conclude with recommendations about reporting guidelines for those using Bayesian methods in their own research. We provide data and R code for replicating our analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Network inference using informative priors

PubMed Central

Mukherjee, Sach; Speed, Terence P.

2008-01-01

Recent years have seen much interest in the study of systems characterized by multiple interacting components. A class of statistical models called graphical models, in which graphs are used to represent probabilistic relationships between variables, provides a framework for formal inference regarding such systems. In many settings, the object of inference is the network structure itself. This problem of “network inference” is well known to be a challenging one. However, in scientific settings there is very often existing information regarding network connectivity. A natural idea then is to take account of such information during inference. This article addresses the question of incorporating prior information into network inference. We focus on directed models called Bayesian networks, and use Markov chain Monte Carlo to draw samples from posterior distributions over network structures. We introduce prior distributions on graphs capable of capturing information regarding network features including edges, classes of edges, degree distributions, and sparsity. We illustrate our approach in the context of systems biology, applying our methods to network inference in cancer signaling. PMID:18799736

Network inference using informative priors.

PubMed

Mukherjee, Sach; Speed, Terence P

2008-09-23

Recent years have seen much interest in the study of systems characterized by multiple interacting components. A class of statistical models called graphical models, in which graphs are used to represent probabilistic relationships between variables, provides a framework for formal inference regarding such systems. In many settings, the object of inference is the network structure itself. This problem of "network inference" is well known to be a challenging one. However, in scientific settings there is very often existing information regarding network connectivity. A natural idea then is to take account of such information during inference. This article addresses the question of incorporating prior information into network inference. We focus on directed models called Bayesian networks, and use Markov chain Monte Carlo to draw samples from posterior distributions over network structures. We introduce prior distributions on graphs capable of capturing information regarding network features including edges, classes of edges, degree distributions, and sparsity. We illustrate our approach in the context of systems biology, applying our methods to network inference in cancer signaling.

Identity-by-Descent-Based Phasing and Imputation in Founder Populations Using Graphical Models

PubMed Central

Palin, Kimmo; Campbell, Harry; Wright, Alan F; Wilson, James F; Durbin, Richard

2011-01-01

Accurate knowledge of haplotypes, the combination of alleles co-residing on a single copy of a chromosome, enables powerful gene mapping and sequence imputation methods. Since humans are diploid, haplotypes must be derived from genotypes by a phasing process. In this study, we present a new computational model for haplotype phasing based on pairwise sharing of haplotypes inferred to be Identical-By-Descent (IBD). We apply the Bayesian network based model in a new phasing algorithm, called systematic long-range phasing (SLRP), that can capitalize on the close genetic relationships in isolated founder populations, and show with simulated and real genome-wide genotype data that SLRP substantially reduces the rate of phasing errors compared to previous phasing algorithms. Furthermore, the method accurately identifies regions of IBD, enabling linkage-like studies without pedigrees, and can be used to impute most genotypes with very low error rate. Genet. Epidemiol. 2011. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.35:853-860, 2011 PMID:22006673

Development and comparison in uncertainty assessment based Bayesian modularization method in hydrological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lu; Xu, Chong-Yu; Engeland, Kolbjørn

2013-04-01

SummaryWith respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, various regression and probabilistic approaches are used in hydrological modeling. A family of Bayesian methods, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayes' theorem, is widely used for uncertainty assessment. However, none of these approaches can well treat the impact of high flows in hydrological modeling. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization uncertainty assessment approach in which the highest streamflow observations are treated as suspect information that should not influence the inference of the main bulk of the model parameters. This study includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by our new Bayesian modularization method and standard Bayesian methods using the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions were used in combination with standard Bayesian method: the AR(1) plus Normal model independent of time (Model 1), the AR(1) plus Normal model dependent on time (Model 2) and the AR(1) plus Multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that the Bayesian modularization method provides the most accurate streamflow estimates measured by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and provide the best in uncertainty estimates for low, medium and entire flows compared to standard Bayesian methods. The study thus provides a new approach for reducing the impact of high flows on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian method.

Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

2015-01-01

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

Bayesian model reduction and empirical Bayes for group (DCM) studies.

PubMed

Friston, Karl J; Litvak, Vladimir; Oswal, Ashwini; Razi, Adeel; Stephan, Klaas E; van Wijk, Bernadette C M; Ziegler, Gabriel; Zeidman, Peter

2016-03-01

This technical note describes some Bayesian procedures for the analysis of group studies that use nonlinear models at the first (within-subject) level - e.g., dynamic causal models - and linear models at subsequent (between-subject) levels. Its focus is on using Bayesian model reduction to finesse the inversion of multiple models of a single dataset or a single (hierarchical or empirical Bayes) model of multiple datasets. These applications of Bayesian model reduction allow one to consider parametric random effects and make inferences about group effects very efficiently (in a few seconds). We provide the relatively straightforward theoretical background to these procedures and illustrate their application using a worked example. This example uses a simulated mismatch negativity study of schizophrenia. We illustrate the robustness of Bayesian model reduction to violations of the (commonly used) Laplace assumption in dynamic causal modelling and show how its recursive application can facilitate both classical and Bayesian inference about group differences. Finally, we consider the application of these empirical Bayesian procedures to classification and prediction. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Pittsburgh Cervical Cancer Screening Model: a risk assessment tool.

PubMed

Austin, R Marshall; Onisko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J

2010-05-01

Evaluation of cervical cancer screening has grown increasingly complex with the introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and newer screening technologies approved by the US Food and Drug Administration. To create a unique Pittsburgh Cervical Cancer Screening Model (PCCSM) that quantifies risk for histopathologic cervical precancer (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia [CIN] 2, CIN3, and adenocarcinoma in situ) and cervical cancer in an environment predominantly using newer screening technologies. The PCCSM is a dynamic Bayesian network consisting of 19 variables available in the laboratory information system, including patient history data (most recent HPV vaccination data), Papanicolaou test results, high-risk HPV results, procedure data, and histopathologic results. The model's graphic structure was based on the published literature. Results from 375 441 patient records from 2005 through 2008 were used to build and train the model. Additional data from 45 930 patients were used to test the model. The PCCSM compares risk quantitatively over time for histopathologically verifiable CIN2, CIN3, adenocarcinoma in situ, and cervical cancer in screened patients for each current cytology result category and for each HPV result. For each current cytology result, HPV test results affect risk; however, the degree of cytologic abnormality remains the largest positive predictor of risk. Prior history also alters the CIN2, CIN3, adenocarcinoma in situ, and cervical cancer risk for patients with common current cytology and HPV test results. The PCCSM can also generate negative risk projections, estimating the likelihood of the absence of histopathologic CIN2, CIN3, adenocarcinoma in situ, and cervical cancer in screened patients. The PCCSM is a dynamic Bayesian network that computes quantitative cervical disease risk estimates for patients undergoing cervical screening. Continuously updatable with current system data, the PCCSM provides a new tool to monitor cervical disease risk in the evolving postvaccination era.

Arlequin suite ver 3.5: a new series of programs to perform population genetics analyses under Linux and Windows.

PubMed

Excoffier, Laurent; Lischer, Heidi E L

2010-05-01

We present here a new version of the Arlequin program available under three different forms: a Windows graphical version (Winarl35), a console version of Arlequin (arlecore), and a specific console version to compute summary statistics (arlsumstat). The command-line versions run under both Linux and Windows. The main innovations of the new version include enhanced outputs in XML format, the possibility to embed graphics displaying computation results directly into output files, and the implementation of a new method to detect loci under selection from genome scans. Command-line versions are designed to handle large series of files, and arlsumstat can be used to generate summary statistics from simulated data sets within an Approximate Bayesian Computation framework. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

A study of finite mixture model: Bayesian approach on financial time series data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

2014-07-01

Recently, statistician have emphasized on the fitting finite mixture model by using Bayesian method. Finite mixture model is a mixture of distributions in modeling a statistical distribution meanwhile Bayesian method is a statistical method that use to fit the mixture model. Bayesian method is being used widely because it has asymptotic properties which provide remarkable result. In addition, Bayesian method also shows consistency characteristic which means the parameter estimates are close to the predictive distributions. In the present paper, the number of components for mixture model is studied by using Bayesian Information Criterion. Identify the number of component is important because it may lead to an invalid result. Later, the Bayesian method is utilized to fit the k-component mixture model in order to explore the relationship between rubber price and stock market price for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia. Lastly, the results showed that there is a negative effect among rubber price and stock market price for all selected countries.

Sign: large-scale gene network estimation environment for high performance computing.

PubMed

Tamada, Yoshinori; Shimamura, Teppei; Yamaguchi, Rui; Imoto, Seiya; Nagasaki, Masao; Miyano, Satoru

2011-01-01

Our research group is currently developing software for estimating large-scale gene networks from gene expression data. The software, called SiGN, is specifically designed for the Japanese flagship supercomputer "K computer" which is planned to achieve 10 petaflops in 2012, and other high performance computing environments including Human Genome Center (HGC) supercomputer system. SiGN is a collection of gene network estimation software with three different sub-programs: SiGN-BN, SiGN-SSM and SiGN-L1. In these three programs, five different models are available: static and dynamic nonparametric Bayesian networks, state space models, graphical Gaussian models, and vector autoregressive models. All these models require a huge amount of computational resources for estimating large-scale gene networks and therefore are designed to be able to exploit the speed of 10 petaflops. The software will be available freely for "K computer" and HGC supercomputer system users. The estimated networks can be viewed and analyzed by Cell Illustrator Online and SBiP (Systems Biology integrative Pipeline). The software project web site is available at http://sign.hgc.jp/ .

Bayesian Data-Model Fit Assessment for Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levy, Roy

2011-01-01

Bayesian approaches to modeling are receiving an increasing amount of attention in the areas of model construction and estimation in factor analysis, structural equation modeling (SEM), and related latent variable models. However, model diagnostics and model criticism remain relatively understudied aspects of Bayesian SEM. This article describes…

Bayesian multimodel inference for dose-response studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Albers, P.H.

2007-01-01

Statistical inference in dose?response studies is model-based: The analyst posits a mathematical model of the relation between exposure and response, estimates parameters of the model, and reports conclusions conditional on the model. Such analyses rarely include any accounting for the uncertainties associated with model selection. The Bayesian inferential system provides a convenient framework for model selection and multimodel inference. In this paper we briefly describe the Bayesian paradigm and Bayesian multimodel inference. We then present a family of models for multinomial dose?response data and apply Bayesian multimodel inferential methods to the analysis of data on the reproductive success of American kestrels (Falco sparveriuss) exposed to various sublethal dietary concentrations of methylmercury.

A guide to Bayesian model selection for ecologists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooten, Mevin B.; Hobbs, N.T.

2015-01-01

The steady upward trend in the use of model selection and Bayesian methods in ecological research has made it clear that both approaches to inference are important for modern analysis of models and data. However, in teaching Bayesian methods and in working with our research colleagues, we have noticed a general dissatisfaction with the available literature on Bayesian model selection and multimodel inference. Students and researchers new to Bayesian methods quickly find that the published advice on model selection is often preferential in its treatment of options for analysis, frequently advocating one particular method above others. The recent appearance of many articles and textbooks on Bayesian modeling has provided welcome background on relevant approaches to model selection in the Bayesian framework, but most of these are either very narrowly focused in scope or inaccessible to ecologists. Moreover, the methodological details of Bayesian model selection approaches are spread thinly throughout the literature, appearing in journals from many different fields. Our aim with this guide is to condense the large body of literature on Bayesian approaches to model selection and multimodel inference and present it specifically for quantitative ecologists as neutrally as possible. We also bring to light a few important and fundamental concepts relating directly to model selection that seem to have gone unnoticed in the ecological literature. Throughout, we provide only a minimal discussion of philosophy, preferring instead to examine the breadth of approaches as well as their practical advantages and disadvantages. This guide serves as a reference for ecologists using Bayesian methods, so that they can better understand their options and can make an informed choice that is best aligned with their goals for inference.

Incorporating uncertainty into medical decision making: an approach to unexpected test results.

PubMed

Bianchi, Matt T; Alexander, Brian M; Cash, Sydney S

2009-01-01

The utility of diagnostic tests derives from the ability to translate the population concepts of sensitivity and specificity into information that will be useful for the individual patient: the predictive value of the result. As the array of available diagnostic testing broadens, there is a temptation to de-emphasize history and physical findings and defer to the objective rigor of technology. However, diagnostic test interpretation is not always straightforward. One significant barrier to routine use of probability-based test interpretation is the uncertainty inherent in pretest probability estimation, the critical first step of Bayesian reasoning. The context in which this uncertainty presents the greatest challenge is when test results oppose clinical judgment. It is this situation when decision support would be most helpful. The authors propose a simple graphical approach that incorporates uncertainty in pretest probability and has specific application to the interpretation of unexpected results. This method quantitatively demonstrates how uncertainty in disease probability may be amplified when test results are unexpected (opposing clinical judgment), even for tests with high sensitivity and specificity. The authors provide a simple nomogram for determining whether an unexpected test result suggests that one should "switch diagnostic sides.'' This graphical framework overcomes the limitation of pretest probability uncertainty in Bayesian analysis and guides decision making when it is most challenging: interpretation of unexpected test results.

On the Adequacy of Bayesian Evaluations of Categorization Models: Reply to Vanpaemel and Lee (2012)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wills, Andy J.; Pothos, Emmanuel M.

2012-01-01

Vanpaemel and Lee (2012) argued, and we agree, that the comparison of formal models can be facilitated by Bayesian methods. However, Bayesian methods neither precede nor supplant our proposals (Wills & Pothos, 2012), as Bayesian methods can be applied both to our proposals and to their polar opposites. Furthermore, the use of Bayesian methods to…

Uncertainty aggregation and reduction in structure-material performance prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zhen; Mahadevan, Sankaran; Ao, Dan

2018-02-01

An uncertainty aggregation and reduction framework is presented for structure-material performance prediction. Different types of uncertainty sources, structural analysis model, and material performance prediction model are connected through a Bayesian network for systematic uncertainty aggregation analysis. To reduce the uncertainty in the computational structure-material performance prediction model, Bayesian updating using experimental observation data is investigated based on the Bayesian network. It is observed that the Bayesian updating results will have large error if the model cannot accurately represent the actual physics, and that this error will be propagated to the predicted performance distribution. To address this issue, this paper proposes a novel uncertainty reduction method by integrating Bayesian calibration with model validation adaptively. The observation domain of the quantity of interest is first discretized into multiple segments. An adaptive algorithm is then developed to perform model validation and Bayesian updating over these observation segments sequentially. Only information from observation segments where the model prediction is highly reliable is used for Bayesian updating; this is found to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of uncertainty reduction. A composite rotorcraft hub component fatigue life prediction model, which combines a finite element structural analysis model and a material damage model, is used to demonstrate the proposed method.

Bayesian selection of misspecified models is overconfident and may cause spurious posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Yang, Ziheng; Zhu, Tianqi

2018-02-20

The Bayesian method is noted to produce spuriously high posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees in analysis of large datasets, but the precise reasons for this overconfidence are unknown. In general, the performance of Bayesian selection of misspecified models is poorly understood, even though this is of great scientific interest since models are never true in real data analysis. Here we characterize the asymptotic behavior of Bayesian model selection and show that when the competing models are equally wrong, Bayesian model selection exhibits surprising and polarized behaviors in large datasets, supporting one model with full force while rejecting the others. If one model is slightly less wrong than the other, the less wrong model will eventually win when the amount of data increases, but the method may become overconfident before it becomes reliable. We suggest that this extreme behavior may be a major factor for the spuriously high posterior probabilities for evolutionary trees. The philosophical implications of our results to the application of Bayesian model selection to evaluate opposing scientific hypotheses are yet to be explored, as are the behaviors of non-Bayesian methods in similar situations.

Bayesian analysis of stage-fall-discharge rating curves and their uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansanarez, V.; Le Coz, J.; Renard, B.; Lang, M.; Pierrefeu, G.; Vauchel, P.

2016-09-01

Stage-fall-discharge (SFD) rating curves are traditionally used to compute streamflow records at sites where the energy slope of the flow is variable due to variable backwater effects. We introduce a model with hydraulically interpretable parameters for estimating SFD rating curves and their uncertainties. Conventional power functions for channel and section controls are used. The transition to a backwater-affected channel control is computed based on a continuity condition, solved either analytically or numerically. The practical use of the method is demonstrated with two real twin-gauge stations, the Rhône River at Valence, France, and the Guthusbekken stream at station 0003ṡ0033, Norway. Those stations are typical of a channel control and a section control, respectively, when backwater-unaffected conditions apply. The performance of the method is investigated through sensitivity analysis to prior information on controls and to observations (i.e., available gaugings) for the station of Valence. These analyses suggest that precisely identifying SFD rating curves requires adapted gauging strategy and/or informative priors. The Madeira River, one of the largest tributaries of the Amazon, provides a challenging case typical of large, flat, tropical river networks where bed roughness can also be variable in addition to slope. In this case, the difference in staff gauge reference levels must be estimated as another uncertain parameter of the SFD model. The proposed Bayesian method is a valuable alternative solution to the graphical and empirical techniques still proposed in hydrometry guidance and standards.

Bayesian Fundamentalism or Enlightenment? On the explanatory status and theoretical contributions of Bayesian models of cognition.

PubMed

Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

2011-08-01

The prominence of Bayesian modeling of cognition has increased recently largely because of mathematical advances in specifying and deriving predictions from complex probabilistic models. Much of this research aims to demonstrate that cognitive behavior can be explained from rational principles alone, without recourse to psychological or neurological processes and representations. We note commonalities between this rational approach and other movements in psychology - namely, Behaviorism and evolutionary psychology - that set aside mechanistic explanations or make use of optimality assumptions. Through these comparisons, we identify a number of challenges that limit the rational program's potential contribution to psychological theory. Specifically, rational Bayesian models are significantly unconstrained, both because they are uninformed by a wide range of process-level data and because their assumptions about the environment are generally not grounded in empirical measurement. The psychological implications of most Bayesian models are also unclear. Bayesian inference itself is conceptually trivial, but strong assumptions are often embedded in the hypothesis sets and the approximation algorithms used to derive model predictions, without a clear delineation between psychological commitments and implementational details. Comparing multiple Bayesian models of the same task is rare, as is the realization that many Bayesian models recapitulate existing (mechanistic level) theories. Despite the expressive power of current Bayesian models, we argue they must be developed in conjunction with mechanistic considerations to offer substantive explanations of cognition. We lay out several means for such an integration, which take into account the representations on which Bayesian inference operates, as well as the algorithms and heuristics that carry it out. We argue this unification will better facilitate lasting contributions to psychological theory, avoiding the pitfalls that have plagued previous theoretical movements.

How the Bayesians Got Their Beliefs (and What Those Beliefs Actually Are): Comment on Bowers and Davis (2012)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffiths, Thomas L.; Chater, Nick; Norris, Dennis; Pouget, Alexandre

2012-01-01

Bowers and Davis (2012) criticize Bayesian modelers for telling "just so" stories about cognition and neuroscience. Their criticisms are weakened by not giving an accurate characterization of the motivation behind Bayesian modeling or the ways in which Bayesian models are used and by not evaluating this theoretical framework against specific…

The explosion at institute: modeling and analyzing the situation awareness factor.

PubMed

Naderpour, Mohsen; Lu, Jie; Zhang, Guangquan

2014-12-01

In 2008 a runaway chemical reaction caused an explosion at a methomyl unit in West Virginia, USA, killing two employees, injuring eight people, evacuating more than 40,000 residents adjacent to the facility, disrupting traffic on a nearby highway and causing significant business loss and interruption. Although the accident was formally investigated, the role of the situation awareness (SA) factor, i.e., a correct understanding of the situation, and appropriate models to maintain SA, remain unexplained. This paper extracts details of abnormal situations within the methomyl unit and models them into a situational network using dynamic Bayesian networks. A fuzzy logic system is used to resemble the operator's thinking when confronted with these abnormal situations. The combined situational network and fuzzy logic system make it possible for the operator to assess such situations dynamically to achieve accurate SA. The findings show that the proposed structure provides a useful graphical model that facilitates the inclusion of prior background knowledge and the updating of this knowledge when new information is available from monitoring systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Regression with Network Prior: Optimal Bayesian Filtering Perspective

PubMed Central

Qian, Xiaoning; Dougherty, Edward R.

2017-01-01

The recently introduced intrinsically Bayesian robust filter (IBRF) provides fully optimal filtering relative to a prior distribution over an uncertainty class ofjoint random process models, whereas formerly the theory was limited to model-constrained Bayesian robust filters, for which optimization was limited to the filters that are optimal for models in the uncertainty class. This paper extends the IBRF theory to the situation where there are both a prior on the uncertainty class and sample data. The result is optimal Bayesian filtering (OBF), where optimality is relative to the posterior distribution derived from the prior and the data. The IBRF theories for effective characteristics and canonical expansions extend to the OBF setting. A salient focus of the present work is to demonstrate the advantages of Bayesian regression within the OBF setting over the classical Bayesian approach in the context otlinear Gaussian models. PMID:28824268

Modeling Diagnostic Assessments with Bayesian Networks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Almond, Russell G.; DiBello, Louis V.; Moulder, Brad; Zapata-Rivera, Juan-Diego

2007-01-01

This paper defines Bayesian network models and examines their applications to IRT-based cognitive diagnostic modeling. These models are especially suited to building inference engines designed to be synchronous with the finer grained student models that arise in skills diagnostic assessment. Aspects of the theory and use of Bayesian network models…

Comparing spatially varying coefficient models: a case study examining violent crime rates and their relationships to alcohol outlets and illegal drug arrests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheeler, David C.; Waller, Lance A.

2009-03-01

In this paper, we compare and contrast a Bayesian spatially varying coefficient process (SVCP) model with a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model for the estimation of the potentially spatially varying regression effects of alcohol outlets and illegal drug activity on violent crime in Houston, Texas. In addition, we focus on the inherent coefficient shrinkage properties of the Bayesian SVCP model as a way to address increased coefficient variance that follows from collinearity in GWR models. We outline the advantages of the Bayesian model in terms of reducing inflated coefficient variance, enhanced model flexibility, and more formal measuring of model uncertainty for prediction. We find spatially varying effects for alcohol outlets and drug violations, but the amount of variation depends on the type of model used. For the Bayesian model, this variation is controllable through the amount of prior influence placed on the variance of the coefficients. For example, the spatial pattern of coefficients is similar for the GWR and Bayesian models when a relatively large prior variance is used in the Bayesian model.

Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics

PubMed Central

Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

2015-01-01

A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. PMID:22364575

Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics.

PubMed

Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

2013-02-01

A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

Bayesian inference based on dual generalized order statistics from the exponentiated Weibull model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Sobhi, Mashail M.

2015-02-01

Bayesian estimation for the two parameters and the reliability function of the exponentiated Weibull model are obtained based on dual generalized order statistics (DGOS). Also, Bayesian prediction bounds for future DGOS from exponentiated Weibull model are obtained. The symmetric and asymmetric loss functions are considered for Bayesian computations. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used for computing the Bayes estimates and prediction bounds. The results have been specialized to the lower record values. Comparisons are made between Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimators via Monte Carlo simulation.

Fundamentals and Recent Developments in Approximate Bayesian Computation

PubMed Central

Lintusaari, Jarno; Gutmann, Michael U.; Dutta, Ritabrata; Kaski, Samuel; Corander, Jukka

2017-01-01

Abstract Bayesian inference plays an important role in phylogenetics, evolutionary biology, and in many other branches of science. It provides a principled framework for dealing with uncertainty and quantifying how it changes in the light of new evidence. For many complex models and inference problems, however, only approximate quantitative answers are obtainable. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) refers to a family of algorithms for approximate inference that makes a minimal set of assumptions by only requiring that sampling from a model is possible. We explain here the fundamentals of ABC, review the classical algorithms, and highlight recent developments. [ABC; approximate Bayesian computation; Bayesian inference; likelihood-free inference; phylogenetics; simulator-based models; stochastic simulation models; tree-based models.] PMID:28175922

An R package for state-trace analysis.

PubMed

Prince, Melissa; Hawkins, Guy; Love, Jonathon; Heathcote, Andrew

2012-09-01

State-trace analysis (Bamber, Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 19, 137-181, 1979) is a graphical analysis that can determine whether one or more than one latent variable mediates an apparent dissociation between the effects of two experimental manipulations. State-trace analysis makes only ordinal assumptions and so, is not confounded by range effects that plague alternative methods, especially when performance is measured on a bounded scale (such as accuracy). We describe and illustrate the application of a freely available GUI driven package, StateTrace, for the R language. StateTrace automates many aspects of a state-trace analysis of accuracy and other binary response data, including customizable graphics and the efficient management of computationally intensive Bayesian methods for quantifying evidence about the outcomes of a state-trace experiment, developed by Prince, Brown, and Heathcote (Psychological Methods, 17, 78-99, 2012).

Bayesian inference of T Tauri star properties using multi-wavelength survey photometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barentsen, Geert; Vink, J. S.; Drew, J. E.; Sale, S. E.

2013-03-01

There are many pertinent open issues in the area of star and planet formation. Large statistical samples of young stars across star-forming regions are needed to trigger a breakthrough in our understanding, but most optical studies are based on a wide variety of spectrographs and analysis methods, which introduces large biases. Here we show how graphical Bayesian networks can be employed to construct a hierarchical probabilistic model which allows pre-main-sequence ages, masses, accretion rates and extinctions to be estimated using two widely available photometric survey data bases (Isaac Newton Telescope Photometric Hα Survey r'/Hα/i' and Two Micron All Sky Survey J-band magnitudes). Because our approach does not rely on spectroscopy, it can easily be applied to ho-mogeneously study the large number of clusters for which Gaia will yield membership lists. We explain how the analysis is carried out using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method and provide PYTHON source code. We then demonstrate its use on 587 known low-mass members of the star-forming region NGC 2264 (Cone Nebula), arriving at a median age of 3.0 Myr, an accretion fraction of 20 ± 2 per cent and a median accretion rate of 10-8.4 M⊙ yr-1. The Bayesian analysis formulated in this work delivers results which are in agreement with spectroscopic studies already in the literature, but achieves this with great efficiency by depending only on photometry. It is a significant step forward from previous photometric studies because the probabilistic approach ensures that nuisance parameters, such as extinction and distance, are fully included in the analysis with a clear picture on any degeneracies.

Individual and population pharmacokinetic compartment analysis: a graphic procedure for quantification of predictive performance.

PubMed

Eksborg, Staffan

2013-01-01

Pharmacokinetic studies are important for optimizing of drug dosing, but requires proper validation of the used pharmacokinetic procedures. However, simple and reliable statistical methods suitable for evaluation of the predictive performance of pharmacokinetic analysis are essentially lacking. The aim of the present study was to construct and evaluate a graphic procedure for quantification of predictive performance of individual and population pharmacokinetic compartment analysis. Original data from previously published pharmacokinetic compartment analyses after intravenous, oral, and epidural administration, and digitized data, obtained from published scatter plots of observed vs predicted drug concentrations from population pharmacokinetic studies using the NPEM algorithm and NONMEM computer program and Bayesian forecasting procedures, were used for estimating the predictive performance according to the proposed graphical method and by the method of Sheiner and Beal. The graphical plot proposed in the present paper proved to be a useful tool for evaluation of predictive performance of both individual and population compartment pharmacokinetic analysis. The proposed method is simple to use and gives valuable information concerning time- and concentration-dependent inaccuracies that might occur in individual and population pharmacokinetic compartment analysis. Predictive performance can be quantified by the fraction of concentration ratios within arbitrarily specified ranges, e.g. within the range 0.8-1.2.

Efficient fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithms for incorporating expert knowledge in parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajabi, Mohammad Mahdi; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad

2016-05-01

Bayesian inference has traditionally been conceived as the proper framework for the formal incorporation of expert knowledge in parameter estimation of groundwater models. However, conventional Bayesian inference is incapable of taking into account the imprecision essentially embedded in expert provided information. In order to solve this problem, a number of extensions to conventional Bayesian inference have been introduced in recent years. One of these extensions is 'fuzzy Bayesian inference' which is the result of integrating fuzzy techniques into Bayesian statistics. Fuzzy Bayesian inference has a number of desirable features which makes it an attractive approach for incorporating expert knowledge in the parameter estimation process of groundwater models: (1) it is well adapted to the nature of expert provided information, (2) it allows to distinguishably model both uncertainty and imprecision, and (3) it presents a framework for fusing expert provided information regarding the various inputs of the Bayesian inference algorithm. However an important obstacle in employing fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater numerical modeling applications is the computational burden, as the required number of numerical model simulations often becomes extremely exhaustive and often computationally infeasible. In this paper, a novel approach of accelerating the fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithm is proposed which is based on using approximate posterior distributions derived from surrogate modeling, as a screening tool in the computations. The proposed approach is first applied to a synthetic test case of seawater intrusion (SWI) in a coastal aquifer. It is shown that for this synthetic test case, the proposed approach decreases the number of required numerical simulations by an order of magnitude. Then the proposed approach is applied to a real-world test case involving three-dimensional numerical modeling of SWI in Kish Island, located in the Persian Gulf. An expert elicitation methodology is developed and applied to the real-world test case in order to provide a road map for the use of fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater modeling applications.

The Importance of Proving the Null

PubMed Central

Gallistel, C. R.

2010-01-01

Null hypotheses are simple, precise, and theoretically important. Conventional statistical analysis cannot support them; Bayesian analysis can. The challenge in a Bayesian analysis is to formulate a suitably vague alternative, because the vaguer the alternative is (the more it spreads out the unit mass of prior probability), the more the null is favored. A general solution is a sensitivity analysis: Compute the odds for or against the null as a function of the limit(s) on the vagueness of the alternative. If the odds on the null approach 1 from above as the hypothesized maximum size of the possible effect approaches 0, then the data favor the null over any vaguer alternative to it. The simple computations and the intuitive graphic representation of the analysis are illustrated by the analysis of diverse examples from the current literature. They pose 3 common experimental questions: (a) Are 2 means the same? (b) Is performance at chance? (c) Are factors additive? PMID:19348549

An Illustrative Guide to the Minerva Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flom, Erik; Leonard, Patrick; Hoeffel, Udo; Kwak, Sehyun; Pavone, Andrea; Svensson, Jakob; Krychowiak, Maciej; Wendelstein 7-X Team Collaboration

2017-10-01

Modern phsyics experiments require tracking and modelling data and their associated uncertainties on a large scale, as well as the combined implementation of multiple independent data streams for sophisticated modelling and analysis. The Minerva Framework offers a centralized, user-friendly method of large-scale physics modelling and scientific inference. Currently used by teams at multiple large-scale fusion experiments including the Joint European Torus (JET) and Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X), the Minerva framework provides a forward-model friendly architecture for developing and implementing models for large-scale experiments. One aspect of the framework involves so-called data sources, which are nodes in the graphical model. These nodes are supplied with engineering and physics parameters. When end-user level code calls a node, it is checked network-wide against its dependent nodes for changes since its last implementation and returns version-specific data. Here, a filterscope data node is used as an illustrative example of the Minerva Framework's data management structure and its further application to Bayesian modelling of complex systems. This work has been carried out within the framework of the EUROfusion Consortium and has received funding from the Euratom research and training programme 2014-2018 under Grant Agreement No. 633053.

Hand gesture recognition in confined spaces with partial observability and occultation constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirkhodaie, Amir; Chan, Alex; Hu, Shuowen

2016-05-01

Human activity detection and recognition capabilities have broad applications for military and homeland security. These tasks are very complicated, however, especially when multiple persons are performing concurrent activities in confined spaces that impose significant obstruction, occultation, and observability uncertainty. In this paper, our primary contribution is to present a dedicated taxonomy and kinematic ontology that are developed for in-vehicle group human activities (IVGA). Secondly, we describe a set of hand-observable patterns that represents certain IVGA examples. Thirdly, we propose two classifiers for hand gesture recognition and compare their performance individually and jointly. Finally, we present a variant of Hidden Markov Model for Bayesian tracking, recognition, and annotation of hand motions, which enables spatiotemporal inference to human group activity perception and understanding. To validate our approach, synthetic (graphical data from virtual environment) and real physical environment video imagery are employed to verify the performance of these hand gesture classifiers, while measuring their efficiency and effectiveness based on the proposed Hidden Markov Model for tracking and interpreting dynamic spatiotemporal IVGA scenarios.

Bayesian cross-validation for model evaluation and selection, with application to the North American Breeding Bird Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, William; Sauer, John R.

2016-01-01

The analysis of ecological data has changed in two important ways over the last 15 years. The development and easy availability of Bayesian computational methods has allowed and encouraged the fitting of complex hierarchical models. At the same time, there has been increasing emphasis on acknowledging and accounting for model uncertainty. Unfortunately, the ability to fit complex models has outstripped the development of tools for model selection and model evaluation: familiar model selection tools such as Akaike's information criterion and the deviance information criterion are widely known to be inadequate for hierarchical models. In addition, little attention has been paid to the evaluation of model adequacy in context of hierarchical modeling, i.e., to the evaluation of fit for a single model. In this paper, we describe Bayesian cross-validation, which provides tools for model selection and evaluation. We describe the Bayesian predictive information criterion and a Bayesian approximation to the BPIC known as the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion. We illustrate the use of these tools for model selection, and the use of Bayesian cross-validation as a tool for model evaluation, using three large data sets from the North American Breeding Bird Survey.

Bayesian networks for maritime traffic accident prevention: benefits and challenges.

PubMed

Hänninen, Maria

2014-12-01

Bayesian networks are quantitative modeling tools whose applications to the maritime traffic safety context are becoming more popular. This paper discusses the utilization of Bayesian networks in maritime safety modeling. Based on literature and the author's own experiences, the paper studies what Bayesian networks can offer to maritime accident prevention and safety modeling and discusses a few challenges in their application to this context. It is argued that the capability of representing rather complex, not necessarily causal but uncertain relationships makes Bayesian networks an attractive modeling tool for the maritime safety and accidents. Furthermore, as the maritime accident and safety data is still rather scarce and has some quality problems, the possibility to combine data with expert knowledge and the easy way of updating the model after acquiring more evidence further enhance their feasibility. However, eliciting the probabilities from the maritime experts might be challenging and the model validation can be tricky. It is concluded that with the utilization of several data sources, Bayesian updating, dynamic modeling, and hidden nodes for latent variables, Bayesian networks are rather well-suited tools for the maritime safety management and decision-making. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Framework for Water Quality Model Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management

EPA Science Inventory

A formal Bayesian methodology is presented for integrated model calibration and risk-based water quality management using Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and maximum likelihood estimation (BMCML). The primary focus is on lucid integration of model calibration with risk-based wat...

A Comparison of General Diagnostic Models (GDM) and Bayesian Networks Using a Middle School Mathematics Test

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wu, Haiyan

2013-01-01

General diagnostic models (GDMs) and Bayesian networks are mathematical frameworks that cover a wide variety of psychometric models. Both extend latent class models, and while GDMs also extend item response theory (IRT) models, Bayesian networks can be parameterized using discretized IRT. The purpose of this study is to examine similarities and…

Understanding seasonal variability of uncertainty in hydrological prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, M.; Wang, Q. J.

2012-04-01

Understanding uncertainty in hydrological prediction can be highly valuable for improving the reliability of streamflow prediction. In this study, a monthly water balance model, WAPABA, in a Bayesian joint probability with error models are presented to investigate the seasonal dependency of prediction error structure. A seasonal invariant error model, analogous to traditional time series analysis, uses constant parameters for model error and account for no seasonal variations. In contrast, a seasonal variant error model uses a different set of parameters for bias, variance and autocorrelation for each individual calendar month. Potential connection amongst model parameters from similar months is not considered within the seasonal variant model and could result in over-fitting and over-parameterization. A hierarchical error model further applies some distributional restrictions on model parameters within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. An iterative algorithm is implemented to expedite the maximum a posterior (MAP) estimation of a hierarchical error model. Three error models are applied to forecasting streamflow at a catchment in southeast Australia in a cross-validation analysis. This study also presents a number of statistical measures and graphical tools to compare the predictive skills of different error models. From probability integral transform histograms and other diagnostic graphs, the hierarchical error model conforms better to reliability when compared to the seasonal invariant error model. The hierarchical error model also generally provides the most accurate mean prediction in terms of the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient and the best probabilistic prediction in terms of the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). The model parameters of the seasonal variant error model are very sensitive to each cross validation, while the hierarchical error model produces much more robust and reliable model parameters. Furthermore, the result of the hierarchical error model shows that most of model parameters are not seasonal variant except for error bias. The seasonal variant error model is likely to use more parameters than necessary to maximize the posterior likelihood. The model flexibility and robustness indicates that the hierarchical error model has great potential for future streamflow predictions.

Perceptual decision making: drift-diffusion model is equivalent to a Bayesian model

PubMed Central

Bitzer, Sebastian; Park, Hame; Blankenburg, Felix; Kiebel, Stefan J.

2014-01-01

Behavioral data obtained with perceptual decision making experiments are typically analyzed with the drift-diffusion model. This parsimonious model accumulates noisy pieces of evidence toward a decision bound to explain the accuracy and reaction times of subjects. Recently, Bayesian models have been proposed to explain how the brain extracts information from noisy input as typically presented in perceptual decision making tasks. It has long been known that the drift-diffusion model is tightly linked with such functional Bayesian models but the precise relationship of the two mechanisms was never made explicit. Using a Bayesian model, we derived the equations which relate parameter values between these models. In practice we show that this equivalence is useful when fitting multi-subject data. We further show that the Bayesian model suggests different decision variables which all predict equal responses and discuss how these may be discriminated based on neural correlates of accumulated evidence. In addition, we discuss extensions to the Bayesian model which would be difficult to derive for the drift-diffusion model. We suggest that these and other extensions may be highly useful for deriving new experiments which test novel hypotheses. PMID:24616689

Construction of monitoring model and algorithm design on passenger security during shipping based on improved Bayesian network.

PubMed

Wang, Jiali; Zhang, Qingnian; Ji, Wenfeng

2014-01-01

A large number of data is needed by the computation of the objective Bayesian network, but the data is hard to get in actual computation. The calculation method of Bayesian network was improved in this paper, and the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was obtained. Then, the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was used to reason Bayesian network model when the data is limited. The security of passengers during shipping is affected by various factors, and it is hard to predict and control. The index system that has the impact on the passenger safety during shipping was established on basis of the multifield coupling theory in this paper. Meanwhile, the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was applied to monitor the security of passengers in the shipping process. The model was applied to monitor the passenger safety during shipping of a shipping company in Hainan, and the effectiveness of this model was examined. This research work provides guidance for guaranteeing security of passengers during shipping.

Construction of Monitoring Model and Algorithm Design on Passenger Security during Shipping Based on Improved Bayesian Network

PubMed Central

Wang, Jiali; Zhang, Qingnian; Ji, Wenfeng

2014-01-01

A large number of data is needed by the computation of the objective Bayesian network, but the data is hard to get in actual computation. The calculation method of Bayesian network was improved in this paper, and the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was obtained. Then, the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was used to reason Bayesian network model when the data is limited. The security of passengers during shipping is affected by various factors, and it is hard to predict and control. The index system that has the impact on the passenger safety during shipping was established on basis of the multifield coupling theory in this paper. Meanwhile, the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was applied to monitor the security of passengers in the shipping process. The model was applied to monitor the passenger safety during shipping of a shipping company in Hainan, and the effectiveness of this model was examined. This research work provides guidance for guaranteeing security of passengers during shipping. PMID:25254227

Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Fluid-Induced Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broccardo, M.; Mignan, A.; Wiemer, S.; Stojadinovic, B.; Giardini, D.

2017-11-01

In this study, we present a Bayesian hierarchical framework to model fluid-induced seismicity. The framework is based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a fluid-induced seismicity rate proportional to the rate of injected fluid. The fluid-induced seismicity rate model depends upon a set of physically meaningful parameters and has been validated for six fluid-induced case studies. In line with the vision of hierarchical Bayesian modeling, the rate parameters are considered as random variables. We develop both the Bayesian inference and updating rules, which are used to develop a probabilistic forecasting model. We tested the Basel 2006 fluid-induced seismic case study to prove that the hierarchical Bayesian model offers a suitable framework to coherently encode both epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability. Moreover, it provides a robust and consistent short-term seismic forecasting model suitable for online risk quantification and mitigation.

Estimating virus occurrence using Bayesian modeling in multiple drinking water systems of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Varughese, Eunice A.; Brinkman, Nichole E; Anneken, Emily M; Cashdollar, Jennifer S; Fout, G. Shay; Furlong, Edward T.; Kolpin, Dana W.; Glassmeyer, Susan T.; Keely, Scott P

2017-01-01

incorporated into a Bayesian model to more accurately determine viral load in both source and treated water. Results of the Bayesian model indicated that viruses are present in source water and treated water. By using a Bayesian framework that incorporates inhibition, as well as many other parameters that affect viral detection, this study offers an approach for more accurately estimating the occurrence of viral pathogens in environmental waters.

A local approach for focussed Bayesian fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sander, Jennifer; Heizmann, Michael; Goussev, Igor; Beyerer, Jürgen

2009-04-01

Local Bayesian fusion approaches aim to reduce high storage and computational costs of Bayesian fusion which is separated from fixed modeling assumptions. Using the small world formalism, we argue why this proceeding is conform with Bayesian theory. Then, we concentrate on the realization of local Bayesian fusion by focussing the fusion process solely on local regions that are task relevant with a high probability. The resulting local models correspond then to restricted versions of the original one. In a previous publication, we used bounds for the probability of misleading evidence to show the validity of the pre-evaluation of task specific knowledge and prior information which we perform to build local models. In this paper, we prove the validity of this proceeding using information theoretic arguments. For additional efficiency, local Bayesian fusion can be realized in a distributed manner. Here, several local Bayesian fusion tasks are evaluated and unified after the actual fusion process. For the practical realization of distributed local Bayesian fusion, software agents are predestinated. There is a natural analogy between the resulting agent based architecture and criminal investigations in real life. We show how this analogy can be used to improve the efficiency of distributed local Bayesian fusion additionally. Using a landscape model, we present an experimental study of distributed local Bayesian fusion in the field of reconnaissance, which highlights its high potential.

A Variational Bayes Genomic-Enabled Prediction Model with Genotype × Environment Interaction

PubMed Central

Montesinos-López, Osval A.; Montesinos-López, Abelardo; Crossa, José; Montesinos-López, José Cricelio; Luna-Vázquez, Francisco Javier; Salinas-Ruiz, Josafhat; Herrera-Morales, José R.; Buenrostro-Mariscal, Raymundo

2017-01-01

There are Bayesian and non-Bayesian genomic models that take into account G×E interactions. However, the computational cost of implementing Bayesian models is high, and becomes almost impossible when the number of genotypes, environments, and traits is very large, while, in non-Bayesian models, there are often important and unsolved convergence problems. The variational Bayes method is popular in machine learning, and, by approximating the probability distributions through optimization, it tends to be faster than Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. For this reason, in this paper, we propose a new genomic variational Bayes version of the Bayesian genomic model with G×E using half-t priors on each standard deviation (SD) term to guarantee highly noninformative and posterior inferences that are not sensitive to the choice of hyper-parameters. We show the complete theoretical derivation of the full conditional and the variational posterior distributions, and their implementations. We used eight experimental genomic maize and wheat data sets to illustrate the new proposed variational Bayes approximation, and compared its predictions and implementation time with a standard Bayesian genomic model with G×E. Results indicated that prediction accuracies are slightly higher in the standard Bayesian model with G×E than in its variational counterpart, but, in terms of computation time, the variational Bayes genomic model with G×E is, in general, 10 times faster than the conventional Bayesian genomic model with G×E. For this reason, the proposed model may be a useful tool for researchers who need to predict and select genotypes in several environments. PMID:28391241

A Variational Bayes Genomic-Enabled Prediction Model with Genotype × Environment Interaction.

PubMed

Montesinos-López, Osval A; Montesinos-López, Abelardo; Crossa, José; Montesinos-López, José Cricelio; Luna-Vázquez, Francisco Javier; Salinas-Ruiz, Josafhat; Herrera-Morales, José R; Buenrostro-Mariscal, Raymundo

2017-06-07

There are Bayesian and non-Bayesian genomic models that take into account G×E interactions. However, the computational cost of implementing Bayesian models is high, and becomes almost impossible when the number of genotypes, environments, and traits is very large, while, in non-Bayesian models, there are often important and unsolved convergence problems. The variational Bayes method is popular in machine learning, and, by approximating the probability distributions through optimization, it tends to be faster than Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. For this reason, in this paper, we propose a new genomic variational Bayes version of the Bayesian genomic model with G×E using half-t priors on each standard deviation (SD) term to guarantee highly noninformative and posterior inferences that are not sensitive to the choice of hyper-parameters. We show the complete theoretical derivation of the full conditional and the variational posterior distributions, and their implementations. We used eight experimental genomic maize and wheat data sets to illustrate the new proposed variational Bayes approximation, and compared its predictions and implementation time with a standard Bayesian genomic model with G×E. Results indicated that prediction accuracies are slightly higher in the standard Bayesian model with G×E than in its variational counterpart, but, in terms of computation time, the variational Bayes genomic model with G×E is, in general, 10 times faster than the conventional Bayesian genomic model with G×E. For this reason, the proposed model may be a useful tool for researchers who need to predict and select genotypes in several environments. Copyright © 2017 Montesinos-López et al.

Bayesian Models for Astrophysical Data Using R, JAGS, Python, and Stan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hilbe, Joseph M.; de Souza, Rafael S.; Ishida, Emille E. O.

2017-05-01

This comprehensive guide to Bayesian methods in astronomy enables hands-on work by supplying complete R, JAGS, Python, and Stan code, to use directly or to adapt. It begins by examining the normal model from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives and then progresses to a full range of Bayesian generalized linear and mixed or hierarchical models, as well as additional types of models such as ABC and INLA. The book provides code that is largely unavailable elsewhere and includes details on interpreting and evaluating Bayesian models. Initial discussions offer models in synthetic form so that readers can easily adapt them to their own data; later the models are applied to real astronomical data. The consistent focus is on hands-on modeling, analysis of data, and interpretations that address scientific questions. A must-have for astronomers, its concrete approach will also be attractive to researchers in the sciences more generally.

Statistical tools for analysis and modeling of cosmic populations and astronomical time series: CUDAHM and TSE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loredo, Thomas; Budavari, Tamas; Scargle, Jeffrey D.

2018-01-01

This presentation provides an overview of open-source software packages addressing two challenging classes of astrostatistics problems. (1) CUDAHM is a C++ framework for hierarchical Bayesian modeling of cosmic populations, leveraging graphics processing units (GPUs) to enable applying this computationally challenging paradigm to large datasets. CUDAHM is motivated by measurement error problems in astronomy, where density estimation and linear and nonlinear regression must be addressed for populations of thousands to millions of objects whose features are measured with possibly complex uncertainties, potentially including selection effects. An example calculation demonstrates accurate GPU-accelerated luminosity function estimation for simulated populations of $10^6$ objects in about two hours using a single NVIDIA Tesla K40c GPU. (2) Time Series Explorer (TSE) is a collection of software in Python and MATLAB for exploratory analysis and statistical modeling of astronomical time series. It comprises a library of stand-alone functions and classes, as well as an application environment for interactive exploration of times series data. The presentation will summarize key capabilities of this emerging project, including new algorithms for analysis of irregularly-sampled time series.

Bayesian Analysis of Nonlinear Structural Equation Models with Nonignorable Missing Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Sik-Yum

2006-01-01

A Bayesian approach is developed for analyzing nonlinear structural equation models with nonignorable missing data. The nonignorable missingness mechanism is specified by a logistic regression model. A hybrid algorithm that combines the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to produce the joint Bayesian estimates of…

Dynamic Bayesian Network Modeling of Game Based Diagnostic Assessments. CRESST Report 837

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levy, Roy

2014-01-01

Digital games offer an appealing environment for assessing student proficiencies, including skills and misconceptions in a diagnostic setting. This paper proposes a dynamic Bayesian network modeling approach for observations of student performance from an educational video game. A Bayesian approach to model construction, calibration, and use in…

Bayesian techniques for analyzing group differences in the Iowa Gambling Task: A case study of intuitive and deliberate decision-makers.

PubMed

Steingroever, Helen; Pachur, Thorsten; Šmíra, Martin; Lee, Michael D

2018-06-01

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is one of the most popular experimental paradigms for comparing complex decision-making across groups. Most commonly, IGT behavior is analyzed using frequentist tests to compare performance across groups, and to compare inferred parameters of cognitive models developed for the IGT. Here, we present a Bayesian alternative based on Bayesian repeated-measures ANOVA for comparing performance, and a suite of three complementary model-based methods for assessing the cognitive processes underlying IGT performance. The three model-based methods involve Bayesian hierarchical parameter estimation, Bayes factor model comparison, and Bayesian latent-mixture modeling. We illustrate these Bayesian methods by applying them to test the extent to which differences in intuitive versus deliberate decision style are associated with differences in IGT performance. The results show that intuitive and deliberate decision-makers behave similarly on the IGT, and the modeling analyses consistently suggest that both groups of decision-makers rely on similar cognitive processes. Our results challenge the notion that individual differences in intuitive and deliberate decision styles have a broad impact on decision-making. They also highlight the advantages of Bayesian methods, especially their ability to quantify evidence in favor of the null hypothesis, and that they allow model-based analyses to incorporate hierarchical and latent-mixture structures.

Invited commentary: Lost in estimation--searching for alternatives to markov chains to fit complex Bayesian models.

PubMed

Molitor, John

2012-03-01

Bayesian methods have seen an increase in popularity in a wide variety of scientific fields, including epidemiology. One of the main reasons for their widespread application is the power of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques generally used to fit these models. As a result, researchers often implicitly associate Bayesian models with MCMC estimation procedures. However, Bayesian models do not always require Markov-chain-based methods for parameter estimation. This is important, as MCMC estimation methods, while generally quite powerful, are complex and computationally expensive and suffer from convergence problems related to the manner in which they generate correlated samples used to estimate probability distributions for parameters of interest. In this issue of the Journal, Cole et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2012;175(5):368-375) present an interesting paper that discusses non-Markov-chain-based approaches to fitting Bayesian models. These methods, though limited, can overcome some of the problems associated with MCMC techniques and promise to provide simpler approaches to fitting Bayesian models. Applied researchers will find these estimation approaches intuitively appealing and will gain a deeper understanding of Bayesian models through their use. However, readers should be aware that other non-Markov-chain-based methods are currently in active development and have been widely published in other fields.

The Bayesian reader: explaining word recognition as an optimal Bayesian decision process.

PubMed

Norris, Dennis

2006-04-01

This article presents a theory of visual word recognition that assumes that, in the tasks of word identification, lexical decision, and semantic categorization, human readers behave as optimal Bayesian decision makers. This leads to the development of a computational model of word recognition, the Bayesian reader. The Bayesian reader successfully simulates some of the most significant data on human reading. The model accounts for the nature of the function relating word frequency to reaction time and identification threshold, the effects of neighborhood density and its interaction with frequency, and the variation in the pattern of neighborhood density effects seen in different experimental tasks. Both the general behavior of the model and the way the model predicts different patterns of results in different tasks follow entirely from the assumption that human readers approximate optimal Bayesian decision makers. ((c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).

bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections

PubMed Central

Ševčíková, Hana; Raftery, Adrian E.

2016-01-01

We describe bayesPop, an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the World Population Prospects. PMID:28077933

Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

2017-08-01

Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been developed and widely applied, but there is still room for improvements. Future research in the context of Bayesian flood forecasting should be on assimilation of various sources of newly available information and improvement of predictive performance assessment methods.

Bayesian modeling of flexible cognitive control

PubMed Central

Jiang, Jiefeng; Heller, Katherine; Egner, Tobias

2014-01-01

“Cognitive control” describes endogenous guidance of behavior in situations where routine stimulus-response associations are suboptimal for achieving a desired goal. The computational and neural mechanisms underlying this capacity remain poorly understood. We examine recent advances stemming from the application of a Bayesian learner perspective that provides optimal prediction for control processes. In reviewing the application of Bayesian models to cognitive control, we note that an important limitation in current models is a lack of a plausible mechanism for the flexible adjustment of control over conflict levels changing at varying temporal scales. We then show that flexible cognitive control can be achieved by a Bayesian model with a volatility-driven learning mechanism that modulates dynamically the relative dependence on recent and remote experiences in its prediction of future control demand. We conclude that the emergent Bayesian perspective on computational mechanisms of cognitive control holds considerable promise, especially if future studies can identify neural substrates of the variables encoded by these models, and determine the nature (Bayesian or otherwise) of their neural implementation. PMID:24929218

Bayesian generalized linear mixed modeling of Tuberculosis using informative priors.

PubMed

Ojo, Oluwatobi Blessing; Lougue, Siaka; Woldegerima, Woldegebriel Assefa

2017-01-01

TB is rated as one of the world's deadliest diseases and South Africa ranks 9th out of the 22 countries with hardest hit of TB. Although many pieces of research have been carried out on this subject, this paper steps further by inculcating past knowledge into the model, using Bayesian approach with informative prior. Bayesian statistics approach is getting popular in data analyses. But, most applications of Bayesian inference technique are limited to situations of non-informative prior, where there is no solid external information about the distribution of the parameter of interest. The main aim of this study is to profile people living with TB in South Africa. In this paper, identical regression models are fitted for classical and Bayesian approach both with non-informative and informative prior, using South Africa General Household Survey (GHS) data for the year 2014. For the Bayesian model with informative prior, South Africa General Household Survey dataset for the year 2011 to 2013 are used to set up priors for the model 2014.

Bayesian statistics in medicine: a 25 year review.

PubMed

Ashby, Deborah

2006-11-15

This review examines the state of Bayesian thinking as Statistics in Medicine was launched in 1982, reflecting particularly on its applicability and uses in medical research. It then looks at each subsequent five-year epoch, with a focus on papers appearing in Statistics in Medicine, putting these in the context of major developments in Bayesian thinking and computation with reference to important books, landmark meetings and seminal papers. It charts the growth of Bayesian statistics as it is applied to medicine and makes predictions for the future. From sparse beginnings, where Bayesian statistics was barely mentioned, Bayesian statistics has now permeated all the major areas of medical statistics, including clinical trials, epidemiology, meta-analyses and evidence synthesis, spatial modelling, longitudinal modelling, survival modelling, molecular genetics and decision-making in respect of new technologies.

GPU MrBayes V3.1: MrBayes on Graphics Processing Units for Protein Sequence Data.

PubMed

Pang, Shuai; Stones, Rebecca J; Ren, Ming-Ming; Liu, Xiao-Guang; Wang, Gang; Xia, Hong-ju; Wu, Hao-Yang; Liu, Yang; Xie, Qiang

2015-09-01

We present a modified GPU (graphics processing unit) version of MrBayes, called ta(MC)(3) (GPU MrBayes V3.1), for Bayesian phylogenetic inference on protein data sets. Our main contributions are 1) utilizing 64-bit variables, thereby enabling ta(MC)(3) to process larger data sets than MrBayes; and 2) to use Kahan summation to improve accuracy, convergence rates, and consequently runtime. Versus the current fastest software, we achieve a speedup of up to around 2.5 (and up to around 90 vs. serial MrBayes), and more on multi-GPU hardware. GPU MrBayes V3.1 is available from http://sourceforge.net/projects/mrbayes-gpu/. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Bayesian Parameter Inference and Model Selection by Population Annealing in Systems Biology

PubMed Central

Murakami, Yohei

2014-01-01

Parameter inference and model selection are very important for mathematical modeling in systems biology. Bayesian statistics can be used to conduct both parameter inference and model selection. Especially, the framework named approximate Bayesian computation is often used for parameter inference and model selection in systems biology. However, Monte Carlo methods needs to be used to compute Bayesian posterior distributions. In addition, the posterior distributions of parameters are sometimes almost uniform or very similar to their prior distributions. In such cases, it is difficult to choose one specific value of parameter with high credibility as the representative value of the distribution. To overcome the problems, we introduced one of the population Monte Carlo algorithms, population annealing. Although population annealing is usually used in statistical mechanics, we showed that population annealing can be used to compute Bayesian posterior distributions in the approximate Bayesian computation framework. To deal with un-identifiability of the representative values of parameters, we proposed to run the simulations with the parameter ensemble sampled from the posterior distribution, named “posterior parameter ensemble”. We showed that population annealing is an efficient and convenient algorithm to generate posterior parameter ensemble. We also showed that the simulations with the posterior parameter ensemble can, not only reproduce the data used for parameter inference, but also capture and predict the data which was not used for parameter inference. Lastly, we introduced the marginal likelihood in the approximate Bayesian computation framework for Bayesian model selection. We showed that population annealing enables us to compute the marginal likelihood in the approximate Bayesian computation framework and conduct model selection depending on the Bayes factor. PMID:25089832

Investigation of hit-and-run crash occurrence and severity using real-time loop detector data and hierarchical Bayesian binary logit model with random effects.

PubMed

Xie, Meiquan; Cheng, Wen; Gill, Gurdiljot Singh; Zhou, Jiao; Jia, Xudong; Choi, Simon

2018-02-17

Most of the extensive research dedicated to identifying the influential factors of hit-and-run (HR) crashes has utilized typical maximum likelihood estimation binary logit models, and none have employed real-time traffic data. To fill this gap, this study focused on investigating factors contributing to HR crashes, as well as the severity levels of HR. This study analyzed 4-year crash and real-time loop detector data by employing hierarchical Bayesian models with random effects within a sequential logit structure. In addition to evaluation of the impact of random effects on model fitness and complexity, the prediction capability of the models was examined. Stepwise incremental sensitivity and specificity were calculated and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were utilized to graphically illustrate the predictive performance of the model. Among the real-time flow variables, the average occupancy and speed from the upstream detector were observed to be positively correlated with HR crash possibility. The average upstream speed and speed difference between upstream and downstream speeds were correlated with the occurrence of severe HR crashes. In addition to real-time factors, other variables found influential for HR and severe HR crashes were length of segment, adverse weather conditions, dark lighting conditions with malfunctioning street lights, driving under the influence of alcohol, width of inner shoulder, and nighttime. This study suggests the potential traffic conditions of HR and severe HR occurrence, which refer to relatively congested upstream traffic conditions with high upstream speed and significant speed deviations on long segments. The above findings suggest that traffic enforcement should be directed toward mitigating risky driving under the aforementioned traffic conditions. Moreover, enforcement agencies may employ alcohol checkpoints to counter driving under the influence (DUI) at night. With regard to engineering improvements, wider inner shoulders may be constructed to potentially reduce HR cases and street lights should be installed and maintained in working condition to make roads less prone to such crashes.

An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology.

PubMed

Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly M; Clifton, James P; van de Schoot, Rens; Tiemensma, Jitske

2017-09-01

The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of health psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation models, latent growth curve (and mixture) models, and hierarchical linear models. Likewise, Bayesian methods can be used with small sample sizes since they do not rely on large sample theory. In this article, we discuss several important components of Bayesian statistics as they relate to health-based inquiries. We discuss the incorporation and impact of prior knowledge into the estimation process and the different components of the analysis that should be reported in an article. We present an example implementing Bayesian estimation in the context of blood pressure changes after participants experienced an acute stressor. We conclude with final thoughts on the implementation of Bayesian statistics in health psychology, including suggestions for reviewing Bayesian manuscripts and grant proposals. We have also included an extensive amount of online supplementary material to complement the content presented here, including Bayesian examples using many different software programmes and an extensive sensitivity analysis examining the impact of priors.

A Graphical Modelling Approach to the Dissection of Highly Correlated Transcription Factor Binding Site Profiles

PubMed Central

Stojnic, Robert; Fu, Audrey Qiuyan; Adryan, Boris

2012-01-01

Inferring the combinatorial regulatory code of transcription factors (TFs) from genome-wide TF binding profiles is challenging. A major reason is that TF binding profiles significantly overlap and are therefore highly correlated. Clustered occurrence of multiple TFs at genomic sites may arise from chromatin accessibility and local cooperation between TFs, or binding sites may simply appear clustered if the profiles are generated from diverse cell populations. Overlaps in TF binding profiles may also result from measurements taken at closely related time intervals. It is thus of great interest to distinguish TFs that directly regulate gene expression from those that are indirectly associated with gene expression. Graphical models, in particular Bayesian networks, provide a powerful mathematical framework to infer different types of dependencies. However, existing methods do not perform well when the features (here: TF binding profiles) are highly correlated, when their association with the biological outcome is weak, and when the sample size is small. Here, we develop a novel computational method, the Neighbourhood Consistent PC (NCPC) algorithms, which deal with these scenarios much more effectively than existing methods do. We further present a novel graphical representation, the Direct Dependence Graph (DDGraph), to better display the complex interactions among variables. NCPC and DDGraph can also be applied to other problems involving highly correlated biological features. Both methods are implemented in the R package ddgraph, available as part of Bioconductor (http://bioconductor.org/packages/2.11/bioc/html/ddgraph.html). Applied to real data, our method identified TFs that specify different classes of cis-regulatory modules (CRMs) in Drosophila mesoderm differentiation. Our analysis also found depletion of the early transcription factor Twist binding at the CRMs regulating expression in visceral and somatic muscle cells at later stages, which suggests a CRM-specific repression mechanism that so far has not been characterised for this class of mesodermal CRMs. PMID:23144600

Adaptive MCMC in Bayesian phylogenetics: an application to analyzing partitioned data in BEAST.

PubMed

Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Rambaut, Andrew; Suchard, Marc A

2017-06-15

Advances in sequencing technology continue to deliver increasingly large molecular sequence datasets that are often heavily partitioned in order to accurately model the underlying evolutionary processes. In phylogenetic analyses, partitioning strategies involve estimating conditionally independent models of molecular evolution for different genes and different positions within those genes, requiring a large number of evolutionary parameters that have to be estimated, leading to an increased computational burden for such analyses. The past two decades have also seen the rise of multi-core processors, both in the central processing unit (CPU) and Graphics processing unit processor markets, enabling massively parallel computations that are not yet fully exploited by many software packages for multipartite analyses. We here propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach using an adaptive multivariate transition kernel to estimate in parallel a large number of parameters, split across partitioned data, by exploiting multi-core processing. Across several real-world examples, we demonstrate that our approach enables the estimation of these multipartite parameters more efficiently than standard approaches that typically use a mixture of univariate transition kernels. In one case, when estimating the relative rate parameter of the non-coding partition in a heterochronous dataset, MCMC integration efficiency improves by > 14-fold. Our implementation is part of the BEAST code base, a widely used open source software package to perform Bayesian phylogenetic inference. guy.baele@kuleuven.be. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Tractography-Based Score for Learning Effective Connectivity From Multimodal Imaging Data Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks.

PubMed

Dang, Shilpa; Chaudhury, Santanu; Lall, Brejesh; Roy, Prasun K

2018-05-01

Effective connectivity (EC) is the methodology for determining functional-integration among the functionally active segregated regions of the brain. By definition EC is "the causal influence exerted by one neuronal group on another" which is constrained by anatomical connectivity (AC) (axonal connections). AC is necessary for EC but does not fully determine it, because synaptic communication occurs dynamically in a context-dependent fashion. Although there is a vast emerging evidence of structure-function relationship using multimodal imaging studies, till date only a few studies have done joint modeling of the two modalities: functional MRI (fMRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). We aim to propose a unified probabilistic framework that combines information from both sources to learn EC using dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). DBNs are probabilistic graphical temporal models that learn EC in an exploratory fashion. Specifically, we propose a novel anatomically informed (AI) score that evaluates fitness of a given connectivity structure to both DTI and fMRI data simultaneously. The AI score is employed in structure learning of DBN given the data. Experiments with synthetic-data demonstrate the face validity of structure learning with our AI score over anatomically uninformed counterpart. Moreover, real-data results are cross-validated by performing classification-experiments. EC inferred on real fMRI-DTI datasets is found to be consistent with previous literature and show promising results in light of the AC present as compared to other classically used techniques such as Granger-causality. Multimodal analyses provide a more reliable basis for differentiating brain under abnormal/diseased conditions than the single modality analysis.

A Bayesian Approach for Summarizing and Modeling Time-Series Exposure Data with Left Censoring.

PubMed

Houseman, E Andres; Virji, M Abbas

2017-08-01

Direct reading instruments are valuable tools for measuring exposure as they provide real-time measurements for rapid decision making. However, their use is limited to general survey applications in part due to issues related to their performance. Moreover, statistical analysis of real-time data is complicated by autocorrelation among successive measurements, non-stationary time series, and the presence of left-censoring due to limit-of-detection (LOD). A Bayesian framework is proposed that accounts for non-stationary autocorrelation and LOD issues in exposure time-series data in order to model workplace factors that affect exposure and estimate summary statistics for tasks or other covariates of interest. A spline-based approach is used to model non-stationary autocorrelation with relatively few assumptions about autocorrelation structure. Left-censoring is addressed by integrating over the left tail of the distribution. The model is fit using Markov-Chain Monte Carlo within a Bayesian paradigm. The method can flexibly account for hierarchical relationships, random effects and fixed effects of covariates. The method is implemented using the rjags package in R, and is illustrated by applying it to real-time exposure data. Estimates for task means and covariates from the Bayesian model are compared to those from conventional frequentist models including linear regression, mixed-effects, and time-series models with different autocorrelation structures. Simulations studies are also conducted to evaluate method performance. Simulation studies with percent of measurements below the LOD ranging from 0 to 50% showed lowest root mean squared errors for task means and the least biased standard deviations from the Bayesian model compared to the frequentist models across all levels of LOD. In the application, task means from the Bayesian model were similar to means from the frequentist models, while the standard deviations were different. Parameter estimates for covariates were significant in some frequentist models, but in the Bayesian model their credible intervals contained zero; such discrepancies were observed in multiple datasets. Variance components from the Bayesian model reflected substantial autocorrelation, consistent with the frequentist models, except for the auto-regressive moving average model. Plots of means from the Bayesian model showed good fit to the observed data. The proposed Bayesian model provides an approach for modeling non-stationary autocorrelation in a hierarchical modeling framework to estimate task means, standard deviations, quantiles, and parameter estimates for covariates that are less biased and have better performance characteristics than some of the contemporary methods. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society 2017.

A Hierarchical Multivariate Bayesian Approach to Ensemble Model output Statistics in Atmospheric Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-09-01

efficacy of statistical post-processing methods downstream of these dynamical model components with a hierarchical multivariate Bayesian approach to...Bayesian hierarchical modeling, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods , Metropolis algorithm, machine learning, atmospheric prediction 15. NUMBER OF PAGES...scale processes. However, this dissertation explores the efficacy of statistical post-processing methods downstream of these dynamical model components

Bayesian Learning and the Psychology of Rule Induction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Endress, Ansgar D.

2013-01-01

In recent years, Bayesian learning models have been applied to an increasing variety of domains. While such models have been criticized on theoretical grounds, the underlying assumptions and predictions are rarely made concrete and tested experimentally. Here, I use Frank and Tenenbaum's (2011) Bayesian model of rule-learning as a case study to…

Properties of the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van de Sande, Brett

2013-01-01

Bayesian Knowledge Tracing is used very widely to model student learning. It comes in two different forms: The first form is the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing "hidden Markov model" which predicts the probability of correct application of a skill as a function of the number of previous opportunities to apply that skill and the model…

Bayesian Analysis of Longitudinal Data Using Growth Curve Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Zhiyong; Hamagami, Fumiaki; Wang, Lijuan Lijuan; Nesselroade, John R.; Grimm, Kevin J.

2007-01-01

Bayesian methods for analyzing longitudinal data in social and behavioral research are recommended for their ability to incorporate prior information in estimating simple and complex models. We first summarize the basics of Bayesian methods before presenting an empirical example in which we fit a latent basis growth curve model to achievement data…

Testing students' e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling.

PubMed

Salarzadeh Jenatabadi, Hashem; Moghavvemi, Sedigheh; Wan Mohamed Radzi, Che Wan Jasimah Bt; Babashamsi, Parastoo; Arashi, Mohammad

2017-01-01

Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students' intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data) were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods' results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated.

Testing students’ e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling

PubMed Central

Moghavvemi, Sedigheh; Wan Mohamed Radzi, Che Wan Jasimah Bt; Babashamsi, Parastoo; Arashi, Mohammad

2017-01-01

Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students’ intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data) were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods’ results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated. PMID:28886019

When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Powell, James A.

2017-01-01

Ecological diffusion is a theory that can be used to understand and forecast spatio-temporal processes such as dispersal, invasion, and the spread of disease. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling provides a framework to make statistical inference and probabilistic forecasts, using mechanistic ecological models. To illustrate, we show how hierarchical Bayesian models of ecological diffusion can be implemented for large data sets that are distributed densely across space and time. The hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to understand and forecast the growth and geographic spread in the prevalence of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We compare statistical inference and forecasts from our hierarchical Bayesian model to phenomenological regression-based methods that are commonly used to analyse spatial occurrence data. The mechanistic statistical model based on ecological diffusion led to important ecological insights, obviated a commonly ignored type of collinearity, and was the most accurate method for forecasting.

Bayesian naturalness, simplicity, and testability applied to the B ‑ L MSSM GUT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fundira, Panashe; Purves, Austin

2018-04-01

Recent years have seen increased use of Bayesian model comparison to quantify notions such as naturalness, simplicity, and testability, especially in the area of supersymmetric model building. After demonstrating that Bayesian model comparison can resolve a paradox that has been raised in the literature concerning the naturalness of the proton mass, we apply Bayesian model comparison to GUTs, an area to which it has not been applied before. We find that the GUTs are substantially favored over the nonunifying puzzle model. Of the GUTs we consider, the B ‑ L MSSM GUT is the most favored, but the MSSM GUT is almost equally favored.

A methodology to model causal relationships on offshore safety assessment focusing on human and organizational factors.

PubMed

Ren, J; Jenkinson, I; Wang, J; Xu, D L; Yang, J B

2008-01-01

Focusing on people and organizations, this paper aims to contribute to offshore safety assessment by proposing a methodology to model causal relationships. The methodology is proposed in a general sense that it will be capable of accommodating modeling of multiple risk factors considered in offshore operations and will have the ability to deal with different types of data that may come from different resources. Reason's "Swiss cheese" model is used to form a generic offshore safety assessment framework, and Bayesian Network (BN) is tailored to fit into the framework to construct a causal relationship model. The proposed framework uses a five-level-structure model to address latent failures within the causal sequence of events. The five levels include Root causes level, Trigger events level, Incidents level, Accidents level, and Consequences level. To analyze and model a specified offshore installation safety, a BN model was established following the guideline of the proposed five-level framework. A range of events was specified, and the related prior and conditional probabilities regarding the BN model were assigned based on the inherent characteristics of each event. This paper shows that Reason's "Swiss cheese" model and BN can be jointly used in offshore safety assessment. On the one hand, the five-level conceptual model is enhanced by BNs that are capable of providing graphical demonstration of inter-relationships as well as calculating numerical values of occurrence likelihood for each failure event. Bayesian inference mechanism also makes it possible to monitor how a safety situation changes when information flow travel forwards and backwards within the networks. On the other hand, BN modeling relies heavily on experts' personal experiences and is therefore highly domain specific. "Swiss cheese" model is such a theoretic framework that it is based on solid behavioral theory and therefore can be used to provide industry with a roadmap for BN modeling and implications. A case study of the collision risk between a Floating Production, Storage and Offloading (FPSO) unit and authorized vessels caused by human and organizational factors (HOFs) during operations is used to illustrate an industrial application of the proposed methodology.

Comparison Between Linear and Non-parametric Regression Models for Genome-Enabled Prediction in Wheat

PubMed Central

Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; Gianola, Daniel; González-Camacho, Juan Manuel; Crossa, José; Manès, Yann; Dreisigacker, Susanne

2012-01-01

In genome-enabled prediction, parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric regression models have been used. This study assessed the predictive ability of linear and non-linear models using dense molecular markers. The linear models were linear on marker effects and included the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B. The non-linear models (this refers to non-linearity on markers) were reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) regression, Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNN), and radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). These statistical models were compared using 306 elite wheat lines from CIMMYT genotyped with 1717 diversity array technology (DArT) markers and two traits, days to heading (DTH) and grain yield (GY), measured in each of 12 environments. It was found that the three non-linear models had better overall prediction accuracy than the linear regression specification. Results showed a consistent superiority of RKHS and RBFNN over the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B models. PMID:23275882

Comparison between linear and non-parametric regression models for genome-enabled prediction in wheat.

PubMed

Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; Gianola, Daniel; González-Camacho, Juan Manuel; Crossa, José; Manès, Yann; Dreisigacker, Susanne

2012-12-01

In genome-enabled prediction, parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric regression models have been used. This study assessed the predictive ability of linear and non-linear models using dense molecular markers. The linear models were linear on marker effects and included the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B. The non-linear models (this refers to non-linearity on markers) were reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) regression, Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNN), and radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). These statistical models were compared using 306 elite wheat lines from CIMMYT genotyped with 1717 diversity array technology (DArT) markers and two traits, days to heading (DTH) and grain yield (GY), measured in each of 12 environments. It was found that the three non-linear models had better overall prediction accuracy than the linear regression specification. Results showed a consistent superiority of RKHS and RBFNN over the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B models.

Fast genomic predictions via Bayesian G-BLUP and multilocus models of threshold traits including censored Gaussian data.

PubMed

Kärkkäinen, Hanni P; Sillanpää, Mikko J

2013-09-04

Because of the increased availability of genome-wide sets of molecular markers along with reduced cost of genotyping large samples of individuals, genomic estimated breeding values have become an essential resource in plant and animal breeding. Bayesian methods for breeding value estimation have proven to be accurate and efficient; however, the ever-increasing data sets are placing heavy demands on the parameter estimation algorithms. Although a commendable number of fast estimation algorithms are available for Bayesian models of continuous Gaussian traits, there is a shortage for corresponding models of discrete or censored phenotypes. In this work, we consider a threshold approach of binary, ordinal, and censored Gaussian observations for Bayesian multilocus association models and Bayesian genomic best linear unbiased prediction and present a high-speed generalized expectation maximization algorithm for parameter estimation under these models. We demonstrate our method with simulated and real data. Our example analyses suggest that the use of the extra information present in an ordered categorical or censored Gaussian data set, instead of dichotomizing the data into case-control observations, increases the accuracy of genomic breeding values predicted by Bayesian multilocus association models or by Bayesian genomic best linear unbiased prediction. Furthermore, the example analyses indicate that the correct threshold model is more accurate than the directly used Gaussian model with a censored Gaussian data, while with a binary or an ordinal data the superiority of the threshold model could not be confirmed.

Fast Genomic Predictions via Bayesian G-BLUP and Multilocus Models of Threshold Traits Including Censored Gaussian Data

PubMed Central

Kärkkäinen, Hanni P.; Sillanpää, Mikko J.

2013-01-01

Because of the increased availability of genome-wide sets of molecular markers along with reduced cost of genotyping large samples of individuals, genomic estimated breeding values have become an essential resource in plant and animal breeding. Bayesian methods for breeding value estimation have proven to be accurate and efficient; however, the ever-increasing data sets are placing heavy demands on the parameter estimation algorithms. Although a commendable number of fast estimation algorithms are available for Bayesian models of continuous Gaussian traits, there is a shortage for corresponding models of discrete or censored phenotypes. In this work, we consider a threshold approach of binary, ordinal, and censored Gaussian observations for Bayesian multilocus association models and Bayesian genomic best linear unbiased prediction and present a high-speed generalized expectation maximization algorithm for parameter estimation under these models. We demonstrate our method with simulated and real data. Our example analyses suggest that the use of the extra information present in an ordered categorical or censored Gaussian data set, instead of dichotomizing the data into case-control observations, increases the accuracy of genomic breeding values predicted by Bayesian multilocus association models or by Bayesian genomic best linear unbiased prediction. Furthermore, the example analyses indicate that the correct threshold model is more accurate than the directly used Gaussian model with a censored Gaussian data, while with a binary or an ordinal data the superiority of the threshold model could not be confirmed. PMID:23821618

APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS TO A LAGRANGIAN PHOTOCHEMICAL AIR QUALITY MODEL. (R824792)

EPA Science Inventory

Uncertainties in ozone concentrations predicted with a Lagrangian photochemical air quality model have been estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) analysis. Bayesian Monte Carlo analysis provides a means of combining subjective "prior" uncertainty estimates developed ...

A SEMIPARAMETRIC BAYESIAN MODEL FOR CIRCULAR-LINEAR REGRESSION

EPA Science Inventory

We present a Bayesian approach to regress a circular variable on a linear predictor. The regression coefficients are assumed to have a nonparametric distribution with a Dirichlet process prior. The semiparametric Bayesian approach gives added flexibility to the model and is usefu...

A Bayesian alternative for multi-objective ecohydrological model specification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Yating; Marshall, Lucy; Sharma, Ashish; Ajami, Hoori

2018-01-01

Recent studies have identified the importance of vegetation processes in terrestrial hydrologic systems. Process-based ecohydrological models combine hydrological, physical, biochemical and ecological processes of the catchments, and as such are generally more complex and parametric than conceptual hydrological models. Thus, appropriate calibration objectives and model uncertainty analysis are essential for ecohydrological modeling. In recent years, Bayesian inference has become one of the most popular tools for quantifying the uncertainties in hydrological modeling with the development of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. The Bayesian approach offers an appealing alternative to traditional multi-objective hydrologic model calibrations by defining proper prior distributions that can be considered analogous to the ad-hoc weighting often prescribed in multi-objective calibration. Our study aims to develop appropriate prior distributions and likelihood functions that minimize the model uncertainties and bias within a Bayesian ecohydrological modeling framework based on a traditional Pareto-based model calibration technique. In our study, a Pareto-based multi-objective optimization and a formal Bayesian framework are implemented in a conceptual ecohydrological model that combines a hydrological model (HYMOD) and a modified Bucket Grassland Model (BGM). Simulations focused on one objective (streamflow/LAI) and multiple objectives (streamflow and LAI) with different emphasis defined via the prior distribution of the model error parameters. Results show more reliable outputs for both predicted streamflow and LAI using Bayesian multi-objective calibration with specified prior distributions for error parameters based on results from the Pareto front in the ecohydrological modeling. The methodology implemented here provides insight into the usefulness of multiobjective Bayesian calibration for ecohydrologic systems and the importance of appropriate prior distributions in such approaches.

Diagnostic accuracy of a bayesian latent group analysis for the detection of malingering-related poor effort.

PubMed

Ortega, Alonso; Labrenz, Stephan; Markowitsch, Hans J; Piefke, Martina

2013-01-01

In the last decade, different statistical techniques have been introduced to improve assessment of malingering-related poor effort. In this context, we have recently shown preliminary evidence that a Bayesian latent group model may help to optimize classification accuracy using a simulation research design. In the present study, we conducted two analyses. Firstly, we evaluated how accurately this Bayesian approach can distinguish between participants answering in an honest way (honest response group) and participants feigning cognitive impairment (experimental malingering group). Secondly, we tested the accuracy of our model in the differentiation between patients who had real cognitive deficits (cognitively impaired group) and participants who belonged to the experimental malingering group. All Bayesian analyses were conducted using the raw scores of a visual recognition forced-choice task (2AFC), the Test of Memory Malingering (TOMM, Trial 2), and the Word Memory Test (WMT, primary effort subtests). The first analysis showed 100% accuracy for the Bayesian model in distinguishing participants of both groups with all effort measures. The second analysis showed outstanding overall accuracy of the Bayesian model when estimates were obtained from the 2AFC and the TOMM raw scores. Diagnostic accuracy of the Bayesian model diminished when using the WMT total raw scores. Despite, overall diagnostic accuracy can still be considered excellent. The most plausible explanation for this decrement is the low performance in verbal recognition and fluency tasks of some patients of the cognitively impaired group. Additionally, the Bayesian model provides individual estimates, p(zi |D), of examinees' effort levels. In conclusion, both high classification accuracy levels and Bayesian individual estimates of effort may be very useful for clinicians when assessing for effort in medico-legal settings.

Probabilistic Inference: Task Dependency and Individual Differences of Probability Weighting Revealed by Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling

PubMed Central

Boos, Moritz; Seer, Caroline; Lange, Florian; Kopp, Bruno

2016-01-01

Cognitive determinants of probabilistic inference were examined using hierarchical Bayesian modeling techniques. A classic urn-ball paradigm served as experimental strategy, involving a factorial two (prior probabilities) by two (likelihoods) design. Five computational models of cognitive processes were compared with the observed behavior. Parameter-free Bayesian posterior probabilities and parameter-free base rate neglect provided inadequate models of probabilistic inference. The introduction of distorted subjective probabilities yielded more robust and generalizable results. A general class of (inverted) S-shaped probability weighting functions had been proposed; however, the possibility of large differences in probability distortions not only across experimental conditions, but also across individuals, seems critical for the model's success. It also seems advantageous to consider individual differences in parameters of probability weighting as being sampled from weakly informative prior distributions of individual parameter values. Thus, the results from hierarchical Bayesian modeling converge with previous results in revealing that probability weighting parameters show considerable task dependency and individual differences. Methodologically, this work exemplifies the usefulness of hierarchical Bayesian modeling techniques for cognitive psychology. Theoretically, human probabilistic inference might be best described as the application of individualized strategic policies for Bayesian belief revision. PMID:27303323

Estimating Tree Height-Diameter Models with the Bayesian Method

PubMed Central

Duan, Aiguo; Zhang, Jianguo; Xiang, Congwei

2014-01-01

Six candidate height-diameter models were used to analyze the height-diameter relationships. The common methods for estimating the height-diameter models have taken the classical (frequentist) approach based on the frequency interpretation of probability, for example, the nonlinear least squares method (NLS) and the maximum likelihood method (ML). The Bayesian method has an exclusive advantage compared with classical method that the parameters to be estimated are regarded as random variables. In this study, the classical and Bayesian methods were used to estimate six height-diameter models, respectively. Both the classical method and Bayesian method showed that the Weibull model was the “best” model using data1. In addition, based on the Weibull model, data2 was used for comparing Bayesian method with informative priors with uninformative priors and classical method. The results showed that the improvement in prediction accuracy with Bayesian method led to narrower confidence bands of predicted value in comparison to that for the classical method, and the credible bands of parameters with informative priors were also narrower than uninformative priors and classical method. The estimated posterior distributions for parameters can be set as new priors in estimating the parameters using data2. PMID:24711733

Estimating tree height-diameter models with the Bayesian method.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiongqing; Duan, Aiguo; Zhang, Jianguo; Xiang, Congwei

2014-01-01

Six candidate height-diameter models were used to analyze the height-diameter relationships. The common methods for estimating the height-diameter models have taken the classical (frequentist) approach based on the frequency interpretation of probability, for example, the nonlinear least squares method (NLS) and the maximum likelihood method (ML). The Bayesian method has an exclusive advantage compared with classical method that the parameters to be estimated are regarded as random variables. In this study, the classical and Bayesian methods were used to estimate six height-diameter models, respectively. Both the classical method and Bayesian method showed that the Weibull model was the "best" model using data1. In addition, based on the Weibull model, data2 was used for comparing Bayesian method with informative priors with uninformative priors and classical method. The results showed that the improvement in prediction accuracy with Bayesian method led to narrower confidence bands of predicted value in comparison to that for the classical method, and the credible bands of parameters with informative priors were also narrower than uninformative priors and classical method. The estimated posterior distributions for parameters can be set as new priors in estimating the parameters using data2.

Accurate Biomass Estimation via Bayesian Adaptive Sampling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, Kevin R.; Knuth, Kevin H.; Castle, Joseph P.; Lvov, Nikolay

2005-01-01

The following concepts were introduced: a) Bayesian adaptive sampling for solving biomass estimation; b) Characterization of MISR Rahman model parameters conditioned upon MODIS landcover. c) Rigorous non-parametric Bayesian approach to analytic mixture model determination. d) Unique U.S. asset for science product validation and verification.

Sparse Event Modeling with Hierarchical Bayesian Kernel Methods

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-05

SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: The research objective of this proposal was to develop a predictive Bayesian kernel approach to model count data based on...several predictive variables. Such an approach, which we refer to as the Poisson Bayesian kernel model , is able to model the rate of occurrence of...which adds specificity to the model and can make nonlinear data more manageable. Early results show that the 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE

Bayesian generalized linear mixed modeling of Tuberculosis using informative priors

PubMed Central

Woldegerima, Woldegebriel Assefa

2017-01-01

TB is rated as one of the world’s deadliest diseases and South Africa ranks 9th out of the 22 countries with hardest hit of TB. Although many pieces of research have been carried out on this subject, this paper steps further by inculcating past knowledge into the model, using Bayesian approach with informative prior. Bayesian statistics approach is getting popular in data analyses. But, most applications of Bayesian inference technique are limited to situations of non-informative prior, where there is no solid external information about the distribution of the parameter of interest. The main aim of this study is to profile people living with TB in South Africa. In this paper, identical regression models are fitted for classical and Bayesian approach both with non-informative and informative prior, using South Africa General Household Survey (GHS) data for the year 2014. For the Bayesian model with informative prior, South Africa General Household Survey dataset for the year 2011 to 2013 are used to set up priors for the model 2014. PMID:28257437

A Bayesian belief network approach for assessing uncertainty in conceptual site models at contaminated sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomsen, Nanna I.; Binning, Philip J.; McKnight, Ursula S.; Tuxen, Nina; Bjerg, Poul L.; Troldborg, Mads

2016-05-01

A key component in risk assessment of contaminated sites is in the formulation of a conceptual site model (CSM). A CSM is a simplified representation of reality and forms the basis for the mathematical modeling of contaminant fate and transport at the site. The CSM should therefore identify the most important site-specific features and processes that may affect the contaminant transport behavior at the site. However, the development of a CSM will always be associated with uncertainties due to limited data and lack of understanding of the site conditions. CSM uncertainty is often found to be a major source of model error and it should therefore be accounted for when evaluating uncertainties in risk assessments. We present a Bayesian belief network (BBN) approach for constructing CSMs and assessing their uncertainty at contaminated sites. BBNs are graphical probabilistic models that are effective for integrating quantitative and qualitative information, and thus can strengthen decisions when empirical data are lacking. The proposed BBN approach facilitates a systematic construction of multiple CSMs, and then determines the belief in each CSM using a variety of data types and/or expert opinion at different knowledge levels. The developed BBNs combine data from desktop studies and initial site investigations with expert opinion to assess which of the CSMs are more likely to reflect the actual site conditions. The method is demonstrated on a Danish field site, contaminated with chlorinated ethenes. Four different CSMs are developed by combining two contaminant source zone interpretations (presence or absence of a separate phase contamination) and two geological interpretations (fractured or unfractured clay till). The beliefs in each of the CSMs are assessed sequentially based on data from three investigation stages (a screening investigation, a more detailed investigation, and an expert consultation) to demonstrate that the belief can be updated as more information becomes available.

A Fast Surrogate-facilitated Data-driven Bayesian Approach to Uncertainty Quantification of a Regional Groundwater Flow Model with Structural Error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, T.; Valocchi, A. J.; Ye, M.; Liang, F.

2016-12-01

Due to simplification and/or misrepresentation of the real aquifer system, numerical groundwater flow and solute transport models are usually subject to model structural error. During model calibration, the hydrogeological parameters may be overly adjusted to compensate for unknown structural error. This may result in biased predictions when models are used to forecast aquifer response to new forcing. In this study, we extend a fully Bayesian method [Xu and Valocchi, 2015] to calibrate a real-world, regional groundwater flow model. The method uses a data-driven error model to describe model structural error and jointly infers model parameters and structural error. In this study, Bayesian inference is facilitated using high performance computing and fast surrogate models. The surrogate models are constructed using machine learning techniques to emulate the response simulated by the computationally expensive groundwater model. We demonstrate in the real-world case study that explicitly accounting for model structural error yields parameter posterior distributions that are substantially different from those derived by the classical Bayesian calibration that does not account for model structural error. In addition, the Bayesian with error model method gives significantly more accurate prediction along with reasonable credible intervals.

The Bayesian Revolution Approaches Psychological Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shultz, Thomas R.

2007-01-01

This commentary reviews five articles that apply Bayesian ideas to psychological development, some with psychology experiments, some with computational modeling, and some with both experiments and modeling. The reviewed work extends the current Bayesian revolution into tasks often studied in children, such as causal learning and word learning, and…

Decoupled evolution of floral traits and climatic preferences in a clade of Neotropical Gesneriaceae.

PubMed

Serrano-Serrano, Martha Liliana; Perret, Mathieu; Guignard, Maïté; Chautems, Alain; Silvestro, Daniele; Salamin, Nicolas

2015-11-10

Major factors influencing the phenotypic diversity of a lineage can be recognized by characterizing the extent and mode of trait evolution between related species. Here, we compared the evolutionary dynamics of traits associated with floral morphology and climatic preferences in a clade composed of the genera Codonanthopsis, Codonanthe and Nematanthus (Gesneriaceae). To test the mode and specific components that lead to phenotypic diversity in this group, we performed a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of combined nuclear and plastid DNA sequences and modeled the evolution of quantitative traits related to flower shape and size and to climatic preferences. We propose an alternative approach to display graphically the complex dynamics of trait evolution along a phylogenetic tree using a wide range of evolutionary scenarios. Our results demonstrated heterogeneous trait evolution. Floral shapes displaced into separate regimes selected by the different pollinator types (hummingbirds versus insects), while floral size underwent a clade-specific evolution. Rates of evolution were higher for the clade that is hummingbird pollinated and experienced flower resupination, compared with species pollinated by bees, suggesting a relevant role of plant-pollinator interactions in lowland rainforest. The evolution of temperature preferences is best explained by a model with distinct selective regimes between the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and the other biomes, whereas differentiation along the precipitation axis was characterized by higher rates, compared with temperature, and no regime or clade-specific patterns. Our study shows different selective regimes and clade-specific patterns in the evolution of morphological and climatic components during the diversification of Neotropical species. Our new graphical visualization tool allows the representation of trait trajectories under parameter-rich models, thus contributing to a better understanding of complex evolutionary dynamics.

Incorporating approximation error in surrogate based Bayesian inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Zeng, L.; Li, W.; Wu, L.

2015-12-01

There are increasing interests in applying surrogates for inverse Bayesian modeling to reduce repetitive evaluations of original model. In this way, the computational cost is expected to be saved. However, the approximation error of surrogate model is usually overlooked. This is partly because that it is difficult to evaluate the approximation error for many surrogates. Previous studies have shown that, the direct combination of surrogates and Bayesian methods (e.g., Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC) may lead to biased estimations when the surrogate cannot emulate the highly nonlinear original system. This problem can be alleviated by implementing MCMC in a two-stage manner. However, the computational cost is still high since a relatively large number of original model simulations are required. In this study, we illustrate the importance of incorporating approximation error in inverse Bayesian modeling. Gaussian process (GP) is chosen to construct the surrogate for its convenience in approximation error evaluation. Numerical cases of Bayesian experimental design and parameter estimation for contaminant source identification are used to illustrate this idea. It is shown that, once the surrogate approximation error is well incorporated into Bayesian framework, promising results can be obtained even when the surrogate is directly used, and no further original model simulations are required.

Moving in Parallel Toward a Modern Modeling Epistemology: Bayes Factors and Frequentist Modeling Methods.

PubMed

Rodgers, Joseph Lee

2016-01-01

The Bayesian-frequentist debate typically portrays these statistical perspectives as opposing views. However, both Bayesian and frequentist statisticians have expanded their epistemological basis away from a singular focus on the null hypothesis, to a broader perspective involving the development and comparison of competing statistical/mathematical models. For frequentists, statistical developments such as structural equation modeling and multilevel modeling have facilitated this transition. For Bayesians, the Bayes factor has facilitated this transition. The Bayes factor is treated in articles within this issue of Multivariate Behavioral Research. The current presentation provides brief commentary on those articles and more extended discussion of the transition toward a modern modeling epistemology. In certain respects, Bayesians and frequentists share common goals.

A Bayesian Model of the Memory Colour Effect.

PubMed

Witzel, Christoph; Olkkonen, Maria; Gegenfurtner, Karl R

2018-01-01

According to the memory colour effect, the colour of a colour-diagnostic object is not perceived independently of the object itself. Instead, it has been shown through an achromatic adjustment method that colour-diagnostic objects still appear slightly in their typical colour, even when they are colourimetrically grey. Bayesian models provide a promising approach to capture the effect of prior knowledge on colour perception and to link these effects to more general effects of cue integration. Here, we model memory colour effects using prior knowledge about typical colours as priors for the grey adjustments in a Bayesian model. This simple model does not involve any fitting of free parameters. The Bayesian model roughly captured the magnitude of the measured memory colour effect for photographs of objects. To some extent, the model predicted observed differences in memory colour effects across objects. The model could not account for the differences in memory colour effects across different levels of realism in the object images. The Bayesian model provides a particularly simple account of memory colour effects, capturing some of the multiple sources of variation of these effects.

A Bayesian Model of the Memory Colour Effect

PubMed Central

Olkkonen, Maria; Gegenfurtner, Karl R.

2018-01-01

According to the memory colour effect, the colour of a colour-diagnostic object is not perceived independently of the object itself. Instead, it has been shown through an achromatic adjustment method that colour-diagnostic objects still appear slightly in their typical colour, even when they are colourimetrically grey. Bayesian models provide a promising approach to capture the effect of prior knowledge on colour perception and to link these effects to more general effects of cue integration. Here, we model memory colour effects using prior knowledge about typical colours as priors for the grey adjustments in a Bayesian model. This simple model does not involve any fitting of free parameters. The Bayesian model roughly captured the magnitude of the measured memory colour effect for photographs of objects. To some extent, the model predicted observed differences in memory colour effects across objects. The model could not account for the differences in memory colour effects across different levels of realism in the object images. The Bayesian model provides a particularly simple account of memory colour effects, capturing some of the multiple sources of variation of these effects. PMID:29760874

Analyzing chromatographic data using multilevel modeling.

PubMed

Wiczling, Paweł

2018-06-01

It is relatively easy to collect chromatographic measurements for a large number of analytes, especially with gradient chromatographic methods coupled with mass spectrometry detection. Such data often have a hierarchical or clustered structure. For example, analytes with similar hydrophobicity and dissociation constant tend to be more alike in their retention than a randomly chosen set of analytes. Multilevel models recognize the existence of such data structures by assigning a model for each parameter, with its parameters also estimated from data. In this work, a multilevel model is proposed to describe retention time data obtained from a series of wide linear organic modifier gradients of different gradient duration and different mobile phase pH for a large set of acids and bases. The multilevel model consists of (1) the same deterministic equation describing the relationship between retention time and analyte-specific and instrument-specific parameters, (2) covariance relationships relating various physicochemical properties of the analyte to chromatographically specific parameters through quantitative structure-retention relationship based equations, and (3) stochastic components of intra-analyte and interanalyte variability. The model was implemented in Stan, which provides full Bayesian inference for continuous-variable models through Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Graphical abstract Relationships between log k and MeOH content for acidic, basic, and neutral compounds with different log P. CI credible interval, PSA polar surface area.

Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra

2013-01-01

In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…

Bayesian Posterior Odds Ratios: Statistical Tools for Collaborative Evaluations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hicks, Tyler; Rodríguez-Campos, Liliana; Choi, Jeong Hoon

2018-01-01

To begin statistical analysis, Bayesians quantify their confidence in modeling hypotheses with priors. A prior describes the probability of a certain modeling hypothesis apart from the data. Bayesians should be able to defend their choice of prior to a skeptical audience. Collaboration between evaluators and stakeholders could make their choices…

Bayesian accrual prediction for interim review of clinical studies: open source R package and smartphone application.

PubMed

Jiang, Yu; Guarino, Peter; Ma, Shuangge; Simon, Steve; Mayo, Matthew S; Raghavan, Rama; Gajewski, Byron J

2016-07-22

Subject recruitment for medical research is challenging. Slow patient accrual leads to increased costs and delays in treatment advances. Researchers need reliable tools to manage and predict the accrual rate. The previously developed Bayesian method integrates researchers' experience on former trials and data from an ongoing study, providing a reliable prediction of accrual rate for clinical studies. In this paper, we present a user-friendly graphical user interface program developed in R. A closed-form solution for the total subjects that can be recruited within a fixed time is derived. We also present a built-in Android system using Java for web browsers and mobile devices. Using the accrual software, we re-evaluated the Veteran Affairs Cooperative Studies Program 558- ROBOTICS study. The application of the software in monitoring and management of recruitment is illustrated for different stages of the trial. This developed accrual software provides a more convenient platform for estimation and prediction of the accrual process.

The importance of proving the null.

PubMed

Gallistel, C R

2009-04-01

Null hypotheses are simple, precise, and theoretically important. Conventional statistical analysis cannot support them; Bayesian analysis can. The challenge in a Bayesian analysis is to formulate a suitably vague alternative, because the vaguer the alternative is (the more it spreads out the unit mass of prior probability), the more the null is favored. A general solution is a sensitivity analysis: Compute the odds for or against the null as a function of the limit(s) on the vagueness of the alternative. If the odds on the null approach 1 from above as the hypothesized maximum size of the possible effect approaches 0, then the data favor the null over any vaguer alternative to it. The simple computations and the intuitive graphic representation of the analysis are illustrated by the analysis of diverse examples from the current literature. They pose 3 common experimental questions: (a) Are 2 means the same? (b) Is performance at chance? (c) Are factors additive? (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved

BCM: toolkit for Bayesian analysis of Computational Models using samplers.

PubMed

Thijssen, Bram; Dijkstra, Tjeerd M H; Heskes, Tom; Wessels, Lodewyk F A

2016-10-21

Computational models in biology are characterized by a large degree of uncertainty. This uncertainty can be analyzed with Bayesian statistics, however, the sampling algorithms that are frequently used for calculating Bayesian statistical estimates are computationally demanding, and each algorithm has unique advantages and disadvantages. It is typically unclear, before starting an analysis, which algorithm will perform well on a given computational model. We present BCM, a toolkit for the Bayesian analysis of Computational Models using samplers. It provides efficient, multithreaded implementations of eleven algorithms for sampling from posterior probability distributions and for calculating marginal likelihoods. BCM includes tools to simplify the process of model specification and scripts for visualizing the results. The flexible architecture allows it to be used on diverse types of biological computational models. In an example inference task using a model of the cell cycle based on ordinary differential equations, BCM is significantly more efficient than existing software packages, allowing more challenging inference problems to be solved. BCM represents an efficient one-stop-shop for computational modelers wishing to use sampler-based Bayesian statistics.

Two Approaches to Calibration in Metrology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Campanelli, Mark

2014-04-01

Inferring mathematical relationships with quantified uncertainty from measurement data is common to computational science and metrology. Sufficient knowledge of measurement process noise enables Bayesian inference. Otherwise, an alternative approach is required, here termed compartmentalized inference, because collection of uncertain data and model inference occur independently. Bayesian parameterized model inference is compared to a Bayesian-compatible compartmentalized approach for ISO-GUM compliant calibration problems in renewable energy metrology. In either approach, model evidence can help reduce model discrepancy.

Bayesian data analysis in population ecology: motivations, methods, and benefits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert

2016-01-01

During the 20th century ecologists largely relied on the frequentist system of inference for the analysis of their data. However, in the past few decades ecologists have become increasingly interested in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this article I provide guidance to ecologists who would like to decide whether Bayesian methods can be used to improve their conclusions and predictions. I begin by providing a concise summary of Bayesian methods of analysis, including a comparison of differences between Bayesian and frequentist approaches to inference when using hierarchical models. Next I provide a list of problems where Bayesian methods of analysis may arguably be preferred over frequentist methods. These problems are usually encountered in analyses based on hierarchical models of data. I describe the essentials required for applying modern methods of Bayesian computation, and I use real-world examples to illustrate these methods. I conclude by summarizing what I perceive to be the main strengths and weaknesses of using Bayesian methods to solve ecological inference problems.

[Evaluation of estimation of prevalence ratio using bayesian log-binomial regression model].

PubMed

Gao, W L; Lin, H; Liu, X N; Ren, X W; Li, J S; Shen, X P; Zhu, S L

2017-03-10

To evaluate the estimation of prevalence ratio ( PR ) by using bayesian log-binomial regression model and its application, we estimated the PR of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea in their infants by using bayesian log-binomial regression model in Openbugs software. The results showed that caregivers' recognition of infant' s risk signs of diarrhea was associated significantly with a 13% increase of medical care-seeking. Meanwhile, we compared the differences in PR 's point estimation and its interval estimation of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea and convergence of three models (model 1: not adjusting for the covariates; model 2: adjusting for duration of caregivers' education, model 3: adjusting for distance between village and township and child month-age based on model 2) between bayesian log-binomial regression model and conventional log-binomial regression model. The results showed that all three bayesian log-binomial regression models were convergence and the estimated PRs were 1.130(95 %CI : 1.005-1.265), 1.128(95 %CI : 1.001-1.264) and 1.132(95 %CI : 1.004-1.267), respectively. Conventional log-binomial regression model 1 and model 2 were convergence and their PRs were 1.130(95 % CI : 1.055-1.206) and 1.126(95 % CI : 1.051-1.203), respectively, but the model 3 was misconvergence, so COPY method was used to estimate PR , which was 1.125 (95 %CI : 1.051-1.200). In addition, the point estimation and interval estimation of PRs from three bayesian log-binomial regression models differed slightly from those of PRs from conventional log-binomial regression model, but they had a good consistency in estimating PR . Therefore, bayesian log-binomial regression model can effectively estimate PR with less misconvergence and have more advantages in application compared with conventional log-binomial regression model.

Updating Parameters for Volcanic Hazard Assessment Using Multi-parameter Monitoring Data Streams And Bayesian Belief Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odbert, Henry; Aspinall, Willy

2014-05-01

Evidence-based hazard assessment at volcanoes assimilates knowledge about the physical processes of hazardous phenomena and observations that indicate the current state of a volcano. Incorporating both these lines of evidence can inform our belief about the likelihood (probability) and consequences (impact) of possible hazardous scenarios, forming a basis for formal quantitative hazard assessment. However, such evidence is often uncertain, indirect or incomplete. Approaches to volcano monitoring have advanced substantially in recent decades, increasing the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence thus becomes increasingly complex. In practice, interpreting many timeseries requires an individual to be familiar with the idiosyncrasies of the volcano, monitoring techniques, configuration of recording instruments, observations from other datasets, and so on. In making such interpretations, an individual must consider how different volcanic processes may manifest as measureable observations, and then infer from the available data what can or cannot be deduced about those processes. We examine how parts of this process may be synthesised algorithmically using Bayesian inference. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple strands of evidence (e.g. observations, model results and interpretations) and their associated uncertainties in a methodical manner. BBNs are usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic data from the long-lived eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We discuss the uncertainty of inferences, and how our method provides a route to formal propagation of uncertainties in hazard models. Such approaches provide an attractive route to developing an interface between volcano monitoring analyses and probabilistic hazard scenario analysis. We discuss the use of BBNs in hazard analysis as a tractable and traceable tool for fast, rational assimilation of complex, multi-parameter data sets in the context of timely volcanic crisis decision support.

Combining Volcano Monitoring Timeseries Analyses with Bayesian Belief Networks to Update Hazard Forecast Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odbert, Henry; Hincks, Thea; Aspinall, Willy

2015-04-01

Volcanic hazard assessments must combine information about the physical processes of hazardous phenomena with observations that indicate the current state of a volcano. Incorporating both these lines of evidence can inform our belief about the likelihood (probability) and consequences (impact) of possible hazardous scenarios, forming a basis for formal quantitative hazard assessment. However, such evidence is often uncertain, indirect or incomplete. Approaches to volcano monitoring have advanced substantially in recent decades, increasing the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence thus becomes increasingly complex. In practice, interpreting many timeseries requires an individual to be familiar with the idiosyncrasies of the volcano, monitoring techniques, configuration of recording instruments, observations from other datasets, and so on. In making such interpretations, an individual must consider how different volcanic processes may manifest as measureable observations, and then infer from the available data what can or cannot be deduced about those processes. We examine how parts of this process may be synthesised algorithmically using Bayesian inference. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple strands of evidence (e.g. observations, model results and interpretations) and their associated uncertainties in a methodical manner. BBNs are usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic data from the long-lived eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We show how our method provides a route to formal propagation of uncertainties in hazard models. Such approaches provide an attractive route to developing an interface between volcano monitoring analyses and probabilistic hazard scenario analysis. We discuss the use of BBNs in hazard analysis as a tractable and traceable tool for fast, rational assimilation of complex, multi-parameter data sets in the context of timely volcanic crisis decision support.

A Preliminary Bayesian Analysis of Incomplete Longitudinal Data from a Small Sample: Methodological Advances in an International Comparative Study of Educational Inequality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hsieh, Chueh-An; Maier, Kimberly S.

2009-01-01

The capacity of Bayesian methods in estimating complex statistical models is undeniable. Bayesian data analysis is seen as having a range of advantages, such as an intuitive probabilistic interpretation of the parameters of interest, the efficient incorporation of prior information to empirical data analysis, model averaging and model selection.…

Bayesian model selection: Evidence estimation based on DREAM simulation and bridge sampling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volpi, Elena; Schoups, Gerrit; Firmani, Giovanni; Vrugt, Jasper A.

2017-04-01

Bayesian inference has found widespread application in Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling, providing an effective tool for prediction, data assimilation, parameter estimation, uncertainty analysis and hypothesis testing. Under multiple competing hypotheses, the Bayesian approach also provides an attractive alternative to traditional information criteria (e.g. AIC, BIC) for model selection. The key variable for Bayesian model selection is the evidence (or marginal likelihood) that is the normalizing constant in the denominator of Bayes theorem; while it is fundamental for model selection, the evidence is not required for Bayesian inference. It is computed for each hypothesis (model) by averaging the likelihood function over the prior parameter distribution, rather than maximizing it as by information criteria; the larger a model evidence the more support it receives among a collection of hypothesis as the simulated values assign relatively high probability density to the observed data. Hence, the evidence naturally acts as an Occam's razor, preferring simpler and more constrained models against the selection of over-fitted ones by information criteria that incorporate only the likelihood maximum. Since it is not particularly easy to estimate the evidence in practice, Bayesian model selection via the marginal likelihood has not yet found mainstream use. We illustrate here the properties of a new estimator of the Bayesian model evidence, which provides robust and unbiased estimates of the marginal likelihood; the method is coined Gaussian Mixture Importance Sampling (GMIS). GMIS uses multidimensional numerical integration of the posterior parameter distribution via bridge sampling (a generalization of importance sampling) of a mixture distribution fitted to samples of the posterior distribution derived from the DREAM algorithm (Vrugt et al., 2008; 2009). Some illustrative examples are presented to show the robustness and superiority of the GMIS estimator with respect to other commonly used approaches in the literature.

Dynamic Bayesian network modeling for longitudinal brain morphometry

PubMed Central

Chen, Rong; Resnick, Susan M; Davatzikos, Christos; Herskovits, Edward H

2011-01-01

Identifying interactions among brain regions from structural magnetic-resonance images presents one of the major challenges in computational neuroanatomy. We propose a Bayesian data-mining approach to the detection of longitudinal morphological changes in the human brain. Our method uses a dynamic Bayesian network to represent evolving inter-regional dependencies. The major advantage of dynamic Bayesian network modeling is that it can represent complicated interactions among temporal processes. We validated our approach by analyzing a simulated atrophy study, and found that this approach requires only a small number of samples to detect the ground-truth temporal model. We further applied dynamic Bayesian network modeling to a longitudinal study of normal aging and mild cognitive impairment — the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging. We found that interactions among regional volume-change rates for the mild cognitive impairment group are different from those for the normal-aging group. PMID:21963916

Variational learning and bits-back coding: an information-theoretic view to Bayesian learning.

PubMed

Honkela, Antti; Valpola, Harri

2004-07-01

The bits-back coding first introduced by Wallace in 1990 and later by Hinton and van Camp in 1993 provides an interesting link between Bayesian learning and information-theoretic minimum-description-length (MDL) learning approaches. The bits-back coding allows interpreting the cost function used in the variational Bayesian method called ensemble learning as a code length in addition to the Bayesian view of misfit of the posterior approximation and a lower bound of model evidence. Combining these two viewpoints provides interesting insights to the learning process and the functions of different parts of the model. In this paper, the problem of variational Bayesian learning of hierarchical latent variable models is used to demonstrate the benefits of the two views. The code-length interpretation provides new views to many parts of the problem such as model comparison and pruning and helps explain many phenomena occurring in learning.

A multi-dimensional environment-health risk analysis system for the English regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vitolo, Claudia; Scutari, Marco; Ghalaieny, Mohamed; Tucker, Allan; Russell, Andrew

2017-04-01

There is an overwhelming body of evidence that environmental pollution, and air pollution in particular, is a significant threat to health worldwide. While in developed countries the introduction of environmental legislation and sustainable technologies aims to mitigate adverse effects, developing countries are at higher risk. Within the scope of the British Council funded KEHRA project, work is on-going to develop a reproducible and reliable system to assess health risks due to exposure to pollution under climate change and across countries. Our approach is based on the use of Bayesian Networks. We used these graphical models to explore and model the statistical dependence structure of the intricate environment-health nexus. We developed a robust modelling workflow in the R programming language to facilitate reproducibility and tested it on the English regions in the United Kingdom. Preliminary results are encouraging, showing that the model tests generally well in sample (training data spans the period 1981-2005) and has good predictive power when tested out of sample (testing data spans the period 2006-2014). We plan to show the results of this preliminary analysis as well as test the model under future climate change scenarios. Future work will also investigate the transferability of the model from a data-rich (England) to a data-poor environment (Kazakhstan).

Methods for Probabilistic Fault Diagnosis: An Electrical Power System Case Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ricks, Brian W.; Mengshoel, Ole J.

2009-01-01

Health management systems that more accurately and quickly diagnose faults that may occur in different technical systems on-board a vehicle will play a key role in the success of future NASA missions. We discuss in this paper the diagnosis of abrupt continuous (or parametric) faults within the context of probabilistic graphical models, more specifically Bayesian networks that are compiled to arithmetic circuits. This paper extends our previous research, within the same probabilistic setting, on diagnosis of abrupt discrete faults. Our approach and diagnostic algorithm ProDiagnose are domain-independent; however we use an electrical power system testbed called ADAPT as a case study. In one set of ADAPT experiments, performed as part of the 2009 Diagnostic Challenge, our system turned out to have the best performance among all competitors. In a second set of experiments, we show how we have recently further significantly improved the performance of the probabilistic model of ADAPT. While these experiments are obtained for an electrical power system testbed, we believe they can easily be transitioned to real-world systems, thus promising to increase the success of future NASA missions.

Classifying emotion in Twitter using Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surya Asriadie, Muhammad; Syahrul Mubarok, Mohamad; Adiwijaya

2018-03-01

Language is used to express not only facts, but also emotions. Emotions are noticeable from behavior up to the social media statuses written by a person. Analysis of emotions in a text is done in a variety of media such as Twitter. This paper studies classification of emotions on twitter using Bayesian network because of its ability to model uncertainty and relationships between features. The result is two models based on Bayesian network which are Full Bayesian Network (FBN) and Bayesian Network with Mood Indicator (BNM). FBN is a massive Bayesian network where each word is treated as a node. The study shows the method used to train FBN is not very effective to create the best model and performs worse compared to Naive Bayes. F1-score for FBN is 53.71%, while for Naive Bayes is 54.07%. BNM is proposed as an alternative method which is based on the improvement of Multinomial Naive Bayes and has much lower computational complexity compared to FBN. Even though it’s not better compared to FBN, the resulting model successfully improves the performance of Multinomial Naive Bayes. F1-Score for Multinomial Naive Bayes model is 51.49%, while for BNM is 52.14%.

Additive Genetic Variability and the Bayesian Alphabet

PubMed Central

Gianola, Daniel; de los Campos, Gustavo; Hill, William G.; Manfredi, Eduardo; Fernando, Rohan

2009-01-01

The use of all available molecular markers in statistical models for prediction of quantitative traits has led to what could be termed a genomic-assisted selection paradigm in animal and plant breeding. This article provides a critical review of some theoretical and statistical concepts in the context of genomic-assisted genetic evaluation of animals and crops. First, relationships between the (Bayesian) variance of marker effects in some regression models and additive genetic variance are examined under standard assumptions. Second, the connection between marker genotypes and resemblance between relatives is explored, and linkages between a marker-based model and the infinitesimal model are reviewed. Third, issues associated with the use of Bayesian models for marker-assisted selection, with a focus on the role of the priors, are examined from a theoretical angle. The sensitivity of a Bayesian specification that has been proposed (called “Bayes A”) with respect to priors is illustrated with a simulation. Methods that can solve potential shortcomings of some of these Bayesian regression procedures are discussed briefly. PMID:19620397

Bayesian network modeling applied to coastal geomorphology: lessons learned from a decade of experimentation and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plant, N. G.; Thieler, E. R.; Gutierrez, B.; Lentz, E. E.; Zeigler, S. L.; Van Dongeren, A.; Fienen, M. N.

2016-12-01

We evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of Bayesian networks that have been used to address scientific and decision-support questions related to coastal geomorphology. We will provide an overview of coastal geomorphology research that has used Bayesian networks and describe what this approach can do and when it works (or fails to work). Over the past decade, Bayesian networks have been formulated to analyze the multi-variate structure and evolution of coastal morphology and associated human and ecological impacts. The approach relates observable system variables to each other by estimating discrete correlations. The resulting Bayesian-networks make predictions that propagate errors, conduct inference via Bayes rule, or both. In scientific applications, the model results are useful for hypothesis testing, using confidence estimates to gage the strength of tests while applications to coastal resource management are aimed at decision-support, where the probabilities of desired ecosystems outcomes are evaluated. The range of Bayesian-network applications to coastal morphology includes emulation of high-resolution wave transformation models to make oceanographic predictions, morphologic response to storms and/or sea-level rise, groundwater response to sea-level rise and morphologic variability, habitat suitability for endangered species, and assessment of monetary or human-life risk associated with storms. All of these examples are based on vast observational data sets, numerical model output, or both. We will discuss the progression of our experiments, which has included testing whether the Bayesian-network approach can be implemented and is appropriate for addressing basic and applied scientific problems and evaluating the hindcast and forecast skill of these implementations. We will present and discuss calibration/validation tests that are used to assess the robustness of Bayesian-network models and we will compare these results to tests of other models. This will demonstrate how Bayesian networks are used to extract new insights about coastal morphologic behavior, assess impacts to societal and ecological systems, and communicate probabilistic predictions to decision makers.

A comment on priors for Bayesian occupancy models.

PubMed

Northrup, Joseph M; Gerber, Brian D

2018-01-01

Understanding patterns of species occurrence and the processes underlying these patterns is fundamental to the study of ecology. One of the more commonly used approaches to investigate species occurrence patterns is occupancy modeling, which can account for imperfect detection of a species during surveys. In recent years, there has been a proliferation of Bayesian modeling in ecology, which includes fitting Bayesian occupancy models. The Bayesian framework is appealing to ecologists for many reasons, including the ability to incorporate prior information through the specification of prior distributions on parameters. While ecologists almost exclusively intend to choose priors so that they are "uninformative" or "vague", such priors can easily be unintentionally highly informative. Here we report on how the specification of a "vague" normally distributed (i.e., Gaussian) prior on coefficients in Bayesian occupancy models can unintentionally influence parameter estimation. Using both simulated data and empirical examples, we illustrate how this issue likely compromises inference about species-habitat relationships. While the extent to which these informative priors influence inference depends on the data set, researchers fitting Bayesian occupancy models should conduct sensitivity analyses to ensure intended inference, or employ less commonly used priors that are less informative (e.g., logistic or t prior distributions). We provide suggestions for addressing this issue in occupancy studies, and an online tool for exploring this issue under different contexts.

Final Report, DOE Early Career Award: Predictive modeling of complex physical systems: new tools for statistical inference, uncertainty quantification, and experimental design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marzouk, Youssef

Predictive simulation of complex physical systems increasingly rests on the interplay of experimental observations with computational models. Key inputs, parameters, or structural aspects of models may be incomplete or unknown, and must be developed from indirect and limited observations. At the same time, quantified uncertainties are needed to qualify computational predictions in the support of design and decision-making. In this context, Bayesian statistics provides a foundation for inference from noisy and limited data, but at prohibitive computional expense. This project intends to make rigorous predictive modeling *feasible* in complex physical systems, via accelerated and scalable tools for uncertainty quantification, Bayesianmore » inference, and experimental design. Specific objectives are as follows: 1. Develop adaptive posterior approximations and dimensionality reduction approaches for Bayesian inference in high-dimensional nonlinear systems. 2. Extend accelerated Bayesian methodologies to large-scale {\\em sequential} data assimilation, fully treating nonlinear models and non-Gaussian state and parameter distributions. 3. Devise efficient surrogate-based methods for Bayesian model selection and the learning of model structure. 4. Develop scalable simulation/optimization approaches to nonlinear Bayesian experimental design, for both parameter inference and model selection. 5. Demonstrate these inferential tools on chemical kinetic models in reacting flow, constructing and refining thermochemical and electrochemical models from limited data. Demonstrate Bayesian filtering on canonical stochastic PDEs and in the dynamic estimation of inhomogeneous subsurface properties and flow fields.« less

Bayesian estimation inherent in a Mexican-hat-type neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takiyama, Ken

2016-05-01

Brain functions, such as perception, motor control and learning, and decision making, have been explained based on a Bayesian framework, i.e., to decrease the effects of noise inherent in the human nervous system or external environment, our brain integrates sensory and a priori information in a Bayesian optimal manner. However, it remains unclear how Bayesian computations are implemented in the brain. Herein, I address this issue by analyzing a Mexican-hat-type neural network, which was used as a model of the visual cortex, motor cortex, and prefrontal cortex. I analytically demonstrate that the dynamics of an order parameter in the model corresponds exactly to a variational inference of a linear Gaussian state-space model, a Bayesian estimation, when the strength of recurrent synaptic connectivity is appropriately stronger than that of an external stimulus, a plausible condition in the brain. This exact correspondence can reveal the relationship between the parameters in the Bayesian estimation and those in the neural network, providing insight for understanding brain functions.

The dynamic programming high-order Dynamic Bayesian Networks learning for identifying effective connectivity in human brain from fMRI.

PubMed

Dang, Shilpa; Chaudhury, Santanu; Lall, Brejesh; Roy, Prasun Kumar

2017-06-15

Determination of effective connectivity (EC) among brain regions using fMRI is helpful in understanding the underlying neural mechanisms. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) are an appropriate class of probabilistic graphical temporal-models that have been used in past to model EC from fMRI, specifically order-one. High-order DBNs (HO-DBNs) have still not been explored for fMRI data. A fundamental problem faced in the structure-learning of HO-DBN is high computational-burden and low accuracy by the existing heuristic search techniques used for EC detection from fMRI. In this paper, we propose using dynamic programming (DP) principle along with integration of properties of scoring-function in a way to reduce search space for structure-learning of HO-DBNs and finally, for identifying EC from fMRI which has not been done yet to the best of our knowledge. The proposed exact search-&-score learning approach HO-DBN-DP is an extension of the technique which was originally devised for learning a BN's structure from static data (Singh and Moore, 2005). The effectiveness in structure-learning is shown on synthetic fMRI dataset. The algorithm reaches globally-optimal solution in appreciably reduced time-complexity than the static counterpart due to integration of properties. The proof of optimality is provided. The results demonstrate that HO-DBN-DP is comparably more accurate and faster than currently used structure-learning algorithms used for identifying EC from fMRI. The real data EC from HO-DBN-DP shows consistency with previous literature than the classical Granger Causality method. Hence, the DP algorithm can be employed for reliable EC estimates from experimental fMRI data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian approaches for Integrated Water Resources Management. A Mediterranean case study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulliver, Zacarías; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María

2013-04-01

This study presents the first steps of a short-term/mid-term analysis of the water resources in the Guadalfeo Basin, Spain. Within the basin the recent construction of the Rules dam has required the development of specific management tools and structures for this water system. The climate variability and the high water demand requirements for agriculture irrigation and tourism in this region may cause different controversies in the water management planning process. During the first stages of the study a rigorous analysis of the Water Framework Directive results was done in order to implement the legal requirements and the solutions for the gaps identified by the water authorities. In addition, the stakeholders and water experts identified the variables and geophysical processes for our specific water system case. These particularities need to be taken into account and are required to be reflected in the final computational tool. For decision making process purposes in a mid-term scale, a bayesian network has been used to quantify uncertainty which also provides a structure representation of probabilities, actions-decisions and utilities. On one hand by applying these techniques it is possible the inclusion of decision rules generating influence diagrams that provides clear and coherent semantics for the value of making an observation. On the other hand the utility nodes encode the stakeholders preferences which are measured on a numerical scale, choosing the action that maximizes the expected utility [MEU]. Also this graphical model allows us to identify gaps and project corrective measures, for example, formulating associated scenarios with different event hypotheses. In this sense conditional probability distributions of the seasonal water demand and waste water has been obtained between the established intervals. This fact will give to the regional water managers useful information for future decision making process. The final display is very visual and allows the user to understand quickly the model and the causal relationships between the existing nodes and variables. The input data were collected from the local monitoring networks and the unmonitored data has been generated with a physically based spatially distributed hydrological model WiMMed, which is validated and calibrated. For short-term purposes, pattern analysis has been applied for the management of extreme events scenarios, techniques as Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) or Gaussian Processes (GP) giving accuracy on the predictions.

Development of an Integrated Team Training Design and Assessment Architecture to Support Adaptability in Healthcare Teams

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-01

and implementation of embedded, adaptive feedback and performance assessment. The investigators also initiated work designing a Bayesian Belief ...training; Teamwork; Adaptive performance; Leadership; Simulation; Modeling; Bayesian belief networks (BBN) 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION...Trauma teams Team training Teamwork Adaptability Adaptive performance Leadership Simulation Modeling Bayesian belief networks (BBN) 6

A Bayesian Network Approach to Modeling Learning Progressions and Task Performance. CRESST Report 776

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

West, Patti; Rutstein, Daisy Wise; Mislevy, Robert J.; Liu, Junhui; Choi, Younyoung; Levy, Roy; Crawford, Aaron; DiCerbo, Kristen E.; Chappel, Kristina; Behrens, John T.

2010-01-01

A major issue in the study of learning progressions (LPs) is linking student performance on assessment tasks to the progressions. This report describes the challenges faced in making this linkage using Bayesian networks to model LPs in the field of computer networking. The ideas are illustrated with exemplar Bayesian networks built on Cisco…

Learning multivariate distributions by competitive assembly of marginals.

PubMed

Sánchez-Vega, Francisco; Younes, Laurent; Geman, Donald

2013-02-01

We present a new framework for learning high-dimensional multivariate probability distributions from estimated marginals. The approach is motivated by compositional models and Bayesian networks, and designed to adapt to small sample sizes. We start with a large, overlapping set of elementary statistical building blocks, or "primitives," which are low-dimensional marginal distributions learned from data. Each variable may appear in many primitives. Subsets of primitives are combined in a Lego-like fashion to construct a probabilistic graphical model; only a small fraction of the primitives will participate in any valid construction. Since primitives can be precomputed, parameter estimation and structure search are separated. Model complexity is controlled by strong biases; we adapt the primitives to the amount of training data and impose rules which restrict the merging of them into allowable compositions. The likelihood of the data decomposes into a sum of local gains, one for each primitive in the final structure. We focus on a specific subclass of networks which are binary forests. Structure optimization corresponds to an integer linear program and the maximizing composition can be computed for reasonably large numbers of variables. Performance is evaluated using both synthetic data and real datasets from natural language processing and computational biology.

Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling for Automated Database Schema Matching

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ferragut, Erik M; Laska, Jason A

2015-01-01

The problem of merging databases arises in many government and commercial applications. Schema matching, a common first step, identifies equivalent fields between databases. We introduce a schema matching framework that builds nonparametric Bayesian models for each field and compares them by computing the probability that a single model could have generated both fields. Our experiments show that our method is more accurate and faster than the existing instance-based matching algorithms in part because of the use of nonparametric Bayesian models.

Development of dynamic Bayesian models for web application test management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azarnova, T. V.; Polukhin, P. V.; Bondarenko, Yu V.; Kashirina, I. L.

2018-03-01

The mathematical apparatus of dynamic Bayesian networks is an effective and technically proven tool that can be used to model complex stochastic dynamic processes. According to the results of the research, mathematical models and methods of dynamic Bayesian networks provide a high coverage of stochastic tasks associated with error testing in multiuser software products operated in a dynamically changing environment. Formalized representation of the discrete test process as a dynamic Bayesian model allows us to organize the logical connection between individual test assets for multiple time slices. This approach gives an opportunity to present testing as a discrete process with set structural components responsible for the generation of test assets. Dynamic Bayesian network-based models allow us to combine in one management area individual units and testing components with different functionalities and a direct influence on each other in the process of comprehensive testing of various groups of computer bugs. The application of the proposed models provides an opportunity to use a consistent approach to formalize test principles and procedures, methods used to treat situational error signs, and methods used to produce analytical conclusions based on test results.

Trans-dimensional and hierarchical Bayesian approaches toward rigorous estimation of seismic sources and structures in the Northeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Seongryong; Tkalčić, Hrvoje; Mustać, Marija; Rhie, Junkee; Ford, Sean

2016-04-01

A framework is presented within which we provide rigorous estimations for seismic sources and structures in the Northeast Asia. We use Bayesian inversion methods, which enable statistical estimations of models and their uncertainties based on data information. Ambiguities in error statistics and model parameterizations are addressed by hierarchical and trans-dimensional (trans-D) techniques, which can be inherently implemented in the Bayesian inversions. Hence reliable estimation of model parameters and their uncertainties is possible, thus avoiding arbitrary regularizations and parameterizations. Hierarchical and trans-D inversions are performed to develop a three-dimensional velocity model using ambient noise data. To further improve the model, we perform joint inversions with receiver function data using a newly developed Bayesian method. For the source estimation, a novel moment tensor inversion method is presented and applied to regional waveform data of the North Korean nuclear explosion tests. By the combination of new Bayesian techniques and the structural model, coupled with meaningful uncertainties related to each of the processes, more quantitative monitoring and discrimination of seismic events is possible.

Bayesian Models Leveraging Bioactivity and Cytotoxicity Information for Drug Discovery

PubMed Central

Ekins, Sean; Reynolds, Robert C.; Kim, Hiyun; Koo, Mi-Sun; Ekonomidis, Marilyn; Talaue, Meliza; Paget, Steve D.; Woolhiser, Lisa K.; Lenaerts, Anne J.; Bunin, Barry A.; Connell, Nancy; Freundlich, Joel S.

2013-01-01

SUMMARY Identification of unique leads represents a significant challenge in drug discovery. This hurdle is magnified in neglected diseases such as tuberculosis. We have leveraged public high-throughput screening (HTS) data, to experimentally validate virtual screening approach employing Bayesian models built with bioactivity information (single-event model) as well as bioactivity and cytotoxicity information (dual-event model). We virtually screen a commercial library and experimentally confirm actives with hit rates exceeding typical HTS results by 1-2 orders of magnitude. The first dual-event Bayesian model identified compounds with antitubercular whole-cell activity and low mammalian cell cytotoxicity from a published set of antimalarials. The most potent hit exhibits the in vitro activity and in vitro/in vivo safety profile of a drug lead. These Bayesian models offer significant economies in time and cost to drug discovery. PMID:23521795

Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.

PubMed

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.

Evaluation of calibration efficacy under different levels of uncertainty

DOE PAGES

Heo, Yeonsook; Graziano, Diane J.; Guzowski, Leah; ...

2014-06-10

This study examines how calibration performs under different levels of uncertainty in model input data. It specifically assesses the efficacy of Bayesian calibration to enhance the reliability of EnergyPlus model predictions. A Bayesian approach can be used to update uncertain values of parameters, given measured energy-use data, and to quantify the associated uncertainty.We assess the efficacy of Bayesian calibration under a controlled virtual-reality setup, which enables rigorous validation of the accuracy of calibration results in terms of both calibrated parameter values and model predictions. Case studies demonstrate the performance of Bayesian calibration of base models developed from audit data withmore » differing levels of detail in building design, usage, and operation.« less

EFFICIENT MODEL-FITTING AND MODEL-COMPARISON FOR HIGH-DIMENSIONAL BAYESIAN GEOSTATISTICAL MODELS. (R826887)

EPA Science Inventory

Geostatistical models are appropriate for spatially distributed data measured at irregularly spaced locations. We propose an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for fitting Bayesian geostatistical models with substantial numbers of unknown parameters to sizable...

Universal Darwinism As a Process of Bayesian Inference.

PubMed

Campbell, John O

2016-01-01

Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes' Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus, natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians). As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational) free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an "experiment" in the external world environment, and the results of that "experiment" or the "surprise" entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the "experiment." Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of "surprise" experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature.

Universal Darwinism As a Process of Bayesian Inference

PubMed Central

Campbell, John O.

2016-01-01

Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes' Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus, natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians). As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational) free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an “experiment” in the external world environment, and the results of that “experiment” or the “surprise” entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the “experiment.” Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of “surprise” experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature. PMID:27375438

A Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model decomposition of performance in Approach–Avoidance Tasks

PubMed Central

Krypotos, Angelos-Miltiadis; Beckers, Tom; Kindt, Merel; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2015-01-01

Common methods for analysing response time (RT) tasks, frequently used across different disciplines of psychology, suffer from a number of limitations such as the failure to directly measure the underlying latent processes of interest and the inability to take into account the uncertainty associated with each individual's point estimate of performance. Here, we discuss a Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model and apply it to RT data. This model allows researchers to decompose performance into meaningful psychological processes and to account optimally for individual differences and commonalities, even with relatively sparse data. We highlight the advantages of the Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model decomposition by applying it to performance on Approach–Avoidance Tasks, widely used in the emotion and psychopathology literature. Model fits for two experimental data-sets demonstrate that the model performs well. The Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model overcomes important limitations of current analysis procedures and provides deeper insight in latent psychological processes of interest. PMID:25491372

Multivariate Bayesian modeling of known and unknown causes of events--an application to biosurveillance.

PubMed

Shen, Yanna; Cooper, Gregory F

2012-09-01

This paper investigates Bayesian modeling of known and unknown causes of events in the context of disease-outbreak detection. We introduce a multivariate Bayesian approach that models multiple evidential features of every person in the population. This approach models and detects (1) known diseases (e.g., influenza and anthrax) by using informative prior probabilities and (2) unknown diseases (e.g., a new, highly contagious respiratory virus that has never been seen before) by using relatively non-informative prior probabilities. We report the results of simulation experiments which support that this modeling method can improve the detection of new disease outbreaks in a population. A contribution of this paper is that it introduces a multivariate Bayesian approach for jointly modeling both known and unknown causes of events. Such modeling has general applicability in domains where the space of known causes is incomplete. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Data acquisition and path selection decision making for an autonomous roving vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frederick, D. K.; Shen, C. N.; Yerazunis, S. W.

1976-01-01

Problems related to the guidance of an autonomous rover for unmanned planetary exploration were investigated. Topics included in these studies were: simulation on an interactive graphics computer system of the Rapid Estimation Technique for detection of discrete obstacles; incorporation of a simultaneous Bayesian estimate of states and inputs in the Rapid Estimation Scheme; development of methods for estimating actual laser rangefinder errors and their application to date provided by Jet Propulsion Laboratory; and modification of a path selection system simulation computer code for evaluation of a hazard detection system based on laser rangefinder data.

Model Comparison of Bayesian Semiparametric and Parametric Structural Equation Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Song, Xin-Yuan; Xia, Ye-Mao; Pan, Jun-Hao; Lee, Sik-Yum

2011-01-01

Structural equation models have wide applications. One of the most important issues in analyzing structural equation models is model comparison. This article proposes a Bayesian model comparison statistic, namely the "L[subscript nu]"-measure for both semiparametric and parametric structural equation models. For illustration purposes, we consider…

Scale Mixture Models with Applications to Bayesian Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Zhaohui S.; Damien, Paul; Walker, Stephen

2003-11-01

Scale mixtures of uniform distributions are used to model non-normal data in time series and econometrics in a Bayesian framework. Heteroscedastic and skewed data models are also tackled using scale mixture of uniform distributions.

Rigorous Approach in Investigation of Seismic Structure and Source Characteristicsin Northeast Asia: Hierarchical and Trans-dimensional Bayesian Inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mustac, M.; Kim, S.; Tkalcic, H.; Rhie, J.; Chen, Y.; Ford, S. R.; Sebastian, N.

2015-12-01

Conventional approaches to inverse problems suffer from non-linearity and non-uniqueness in estimations of seismic structures and source properties. Estimated results and associated uncertainties are often biased by applied regularizations and additional constraints, which are commonly introduced to solve such problems. Bayesian methods, however, provide statistically meaningful estimations of models and their uncertainties constrained by data information. In addition, hierarchical and trans-dimensional (trans-D) techniques are inherently implemented in the Bayesian framework to account for involved error statistics and model parameterizations, and, in turn, allow more rigorous estimations of the same. Here, we apply Bayesian methods throughout the entire inference process to estimate seismic structures and source properties in Northeast Asia including east China, the Korean peninsula, and the Japanese islands. Ambient noise analysis is first performed to obtain a base three-dimensional (3-D) heterogeneity model using continuous broadband waveforms from more than 300 stations. As for the tomography of surface wave group and phase velocities in the 5-70 s band, we adopt a hierarchical and trans-D Bayesian inversion method using Voronoi partition. The 3-D heterogeneity model is further improved by joint inversions of teleseismic receiver functions and dispersion data using a newly developed high-efficiency Bayesian technique. The obtained model is subsequently used to prepare 3-D structural Green's functions for the source characterization. A hierarchical Bayesian method for point source inversion using regional complete waveform data is applied to selected events from the region. The seismic structure and source characteristics with rigorously estimated uncertainties from the novel Bayesian methods provide enhanced monitoring and discrimination of seismic events in northeast Asia.

Semiparametric Thurstonian Models for Recurrent Choices: A Bayesian Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ansari, Asim; Iyengar, Raghuram

2006-01-01

We develop semiparametric Bayesian Thurstonian models for analyzing repeated choice decisions involving multinomial, multivariate binary or multivariate ordinal data. Our modeling framework has multiple components that together yield considerable flexibility in modeling preference utilities, cross-sectional heterogeneity and parameter-driven…

Next Steps in Bayesian Structural Equation Models: Comments on, Variations of, and Extensions to Muthen and Asparouhov (2012)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rindskopf, David

2012-01-01

Muthen and Asparouhov (2012) made a strong case for the advantages of Bayesian methodology in factor analysis and structural equation models. I show additional extensions and adaptations of their methods and show how non-Bayesians can take advantage of many (though not all) of these advantages by using interval restrictions on parameters. By…

Careful with Those Priors: A Note on Bayesian Estimation in Two-Parameter Logistic Item Response Theory Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marcoulides, Katerina M.

2018-01-01

This study examined the use of Bayesian analysis methods for the estimation of item parameters in a two-parameter logistic item response theory model. Using simulated data under various design conditions with both informative and non-informative priors, the parameter recovery of Bayesian analysis methods were examined. Overall results showed that…

A Bayesian Approach to Person Fit Analysis in Item Response Theory Models. Research Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glas, Cees A. W.; Meijer, Rob R.

A Bayesian approach to the evaluation of person fit in item response theory (IRT) models is presented. In a posterior predictive check, the observed value on a discrepancy variable is positioned in its posterior distribution. In a Bayesian framework, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure can be used to generate samples of the posterior distribution…

A Tutorial Introduction to Bayesian Models of Cognitive Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perfors, Amy; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.; Griffiths, Thomas L.; Xu, Fei

2011-01-01

We present an introduction to Bayesian inference as it is used in probabilistic models of cognitive development. Our goal is to provide an intuitive and accessible guide to the "what", the "how", and the "why" of the Bayesian approach: what sorts of problems and data the framework is most relevant for, and how and why it may be useful for…

Modeling of Academic Achievement of Primary School Students in Ethiopia Using Bayesian Multilevel Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sebro, Negusse Yohannes; Goshu, Ayele Taye

2017-01-01

This study aims to explore Bayesian multilevel modeling to investigate variations of average academic achievement of grade eight school students. A sample of 636 students is randomly selected from 26 private and government schools by a two-stage stratified sampling design. Bayesian method is used to estimate the fixed and random effects. Input and…

A Simulation Study Comparison of Bayesian Estimation with Conventional Methods for Estimating Unknown Change Points

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Lijuan; McArdle, John J.

2008-01-01

The main purpose of this research is to evaluate the performance of a Bayesian approach for estimating unknown change points using Monte Carlo simulations. The univariate and bivariate unknown change point mixed models were presented and the basic idea of the Bayesian approach for estimating the models was discussed. The performance of Bayesian…

Estimation of parameter uncertainty for an activated sludge model using Bayesian inference: a comparison with the frequentist method.

PubMed

Zonta, Zivko J; Flotats, Xavier; Magrí, Albert

2014-08-01

The procedure commonly used for the assessment of the parameters included in activated sludge models (ASMs) relies on the estimation of their optimal value within a confidence region (i.e. frequentist inference). Once optimal values are estimated, parameter uncertainty is computed through the covariance matrix. However, alternative approaches based on the consideration of the model parameters as probability distributions (i.e. Bayesian inference), may be of interest. The aim of this work is to apply (and compare) both Bayesian and frequentist inference methods when assessing uncertainty for an ASM-type model, which considers intracellular storage and biomass growth, simultaneously. Practical identifiability was addressed exclusively considering respirometric profiles based on the oxygen uptake rate and with the aid of probabilistic global sensitivity analysis. Parameter uncertainty was thus estimated according to both the Bayesian and frequentist inferential procedures. Results were compared in order to evidence the strengths and weaknesses of both approaches. Since it was demonstrated that Bayesian inference could be reduced to a frequentist approach under particular hypotheses, the former can be considered as a more generalist methodology. Hence, the use of Bayesian inference is encouraged for tackling inferential issues in ASM environments.

Bayesian estimation of differential transcript usage from RNA-seq data.

PubMed

Papastamoulis, Panagiotis; Rattray, Magnus

2017-11-27

Next generation sequencing allows the identification of genes consisting of differentially expressed transcripts, a term which usually refers to changes in the overall expression level. A specific type of differential expression is differential transcript usage (DTU) and targets changes in the relative within gene expression of a transcript. The contribution of this paper is to: (a) extend the use of cjBitSeq to the DTU context, a previously introduced Bayesian model which is originally designed for identifying changes in overall expression levels and (b) propose a Bayesian version of DRIMSeq, a frequentist model for inferring DTU. cjBitSeq is a read based model and performs fully Bayesian inference by MCMC sampling on the space of latent state of each transcript per gene. BayesDRIMSeq is a count based model and estimates the Bayes Factor of a DTU model against a null model using Laplace's approximation. The proposed models are benchmarked against the existing ones using a recent independent simulation study as well as a real RNA-seq dataset. Our results suggest that the Bayesian methods exhibit similar performance with DRIMSeq in terms of precision/recall but offer better calibration of False Discovery Rate.

Development of uncertainty-based work injury model using Bayesian structural equation modelling.

PubMed

Chatterjee, Snehamoy

2014-01-01

This paper proposed a Bayesian method-based structural equation model (SEM) of miners' work injury for an underground coal mine in India. The environmental and behavioural variables for work injury were identified and causal relationships were developed. For Bayesian modelling, prior distributions of SEM parameters are necessary to develop the model. In this paper, two approaches were adopted to obtain prior distribution for factor loading parameters and structural parameters of SEM. In the first approach, the prior distributions were considered as a fixed distribution function with specific parameter values, whereas, in the second approach, prior distributions of the parameters were generated from experts' opinions. The posterior distributions of these parameters were obtained by applying Bayesian rule. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling in the form Gibbs sampling was applied for sampling from the posterior distribution. The results revealed that all coefficients of structural and measurement model parameters are statistically significant in experts' opinion-based priors, whereas, two coefficients are not statistically significant when fixed prior-based distributions are applied. The error statistics reveals that Bayesian structural model provides reasonably good fit of work injury with high coefficient of determination (0.91) and less mean squared error as compared to traditional SEM.

BUMPER: the Bayesian User-friendly Model for Palaeo-Environmental Reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holden, Phil; Birks, John; Brooks, Steve; Bush, Mark; Hwang, Grace; Matthews-Bird, Frazer; Valencia, Bryan; van Woesik, Robert

2017-04-01

We describe the Bayesian User-friendly Model for Palaeo-Environmental Reconstruction (BUMPER), a Bayesian transfer function for inferring past climate and other environmental variables from microfossil assemblages. The principal motivation for a Bayesian approach is that the palaeoenvironment is treated probabilistically, and can be updated as additional data become available. Bayesian approaches therefore provide a reconstruction-specific quantification of the uncertainty in the data and in the model parameters. BUMPER is fully self-calibrating, straightforward to apply, and computationally fast, requiring 2 seconds to build a 100-taxon model from a 100-site training-set on a standard personal computer. We apply the model's probabilistic framework to generate thousands of artificial training-sets under ideal assumptions. We then use these to demonstrate both the general applicability of the model and the sensitivity of reconstructions to the characteristics of the training-set, considering assemblage richness, taxon tolerances, and the number of training sites. We demonstrate general applicability to real data, considering three different organism types (chironomids, diatoms, pollen) and different reconstructed variables. In all of these applications an identically configured model is used, the only change being the input files that provide the training-set environment and taxon-count data.

Application of bayesian networks to real-time flood risk estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrote, L.; Molina, M.; Blasco, G.

2003-04-01

This paper presents the application of a computational paradigm taken from the field of artificial intelligence - the bayesian network - to model the behaviour of hydrologic basins during floods. The final goal of this research is to develop representation techniques for hydrologic simulation models in order to define, develop and validate a mechanism, supported by a software environment, oriented to build decision models for the prediction and management of river floods in real time. The emphasis is placed on providing decision makers with tools to incorporate their knowledge of basin behaviour, usually formulated in terms of rainfall-runoff models, in the process of real-time decision making during floods. A rainfall-runoff model is only a step in the process of decision making. If a reliable rainfall forecast is available and the rainfall-runoff model is well calibrated, decisions can be based mainly on model results. However, in most practical situations, uncertainties in rainfall forecasts or model performance have to be incorporated in the decision process. The computation paradigm adopted for the simulation of hydrologic processes is the bayesian network. A bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph that represents causal influences between linked variables. Under this representation, uncertain qualitative variables are related through causal relations quantified with conditional probabilities. The solution algorithm allows the computation of the expected probability distribution of unknown variables conditioned to the observations. An approach to represent hydrologic processes by bayesian networks with temporal and spatial extensions is presented in this paper, together with a methodology for the development of bayesian models using results produced by deterministic hydrologic simulation models

Model-based Bayesian inference for ROC data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Tianhu; Bae, K. Ty

2013-03-01

This paper presents a study of model-based Bayesian inference to Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) data. The model is a simple version of general non-linear regression model. Different from Dorfman model, it uses a probit link function with a covariate variable having zero-one two values to express binormal distributions in a single formula. Model also includes a scale parameter. Bayesian inference is implemented by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method carried out by Bayesian analysis Using Gibbs Sampling (BUGS). Contrast to the classical statistical theory, Bayesian approach considers model parameters as random variables characterized by prior distributions. With substantial amount of simulated samples generated by sampling algorithm, posterior distributions of parameters as well as parameters themselves can be accurately estimated. MCMC-based BUGS adopts Adaptive Rejection Sampling (ARS) protocol which requires the probability density function (pdf) which samples are drawing from be log concave with respect to the targeted parameters. Our study corrects a common misconception and proves that pdf of this regression model is log concave with respect to its scale parameter. Therefore, ARS's requirement is satisfied and a Gaussian prior which is conjugate and possesses many analytic and computational advantages is assigned to the scale parameter. A cohort of 20 simulated data sets and 20 simulations from each data set are used in our study. Output analysis and convergence diagnostics for MCMC method are assessed by CODA package. Models and methods by using continuous Gaussian prior and discrete categorical prior are compared. Intensive simulations and performance measures are given to illustrate our practice in the framework of model-based Bayesian inference using MCMC method.

Bayesian Modeling of a Human MMORPG Player

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Synnaeve, Gabriel; Bessière, Pierre

2011-03-01

This paper describes an application of Bayesian programming to the control of an autonomous avatar in a multiplayer role-playing game (the example is based on World of Warcraft). We model a particular task, which consists of choosing what to do and to select which target in a situation where allies and foes are present. We explain the model in Bayesian programming and show how we could learn the conditional probabilities from data gathered during human-played sessions.

A comment on priors for Bayesian occupancy models

PubMed Central

Gerber, Brian D.

2018-01-01

Understanding patterns of species occurrence and the processes underlying these patterns is fundamental to the study of ecology. One of the more commonly used approaches to investigate species occurrence patterns is occupancy modeling, which can account for imperfect detection of a species during surveys. In recent years, there has been a proliferation of Bayesian modeling in ecology, which includes fitting Bayesian occupancy models. The Bayesian framework is appealing to ecologists for many reasons, including the ability to incorporate prior information through the specification of prior distributions on parameters. While ecologists almost exclusively intend to choose priors so that they are “uninformative” or “vague”, such priors can easily be unintentionally highly informative. Here we report on how the specification of a “vague” normally distributed (i.e., Gaussian) prior on coefficients in Bayesian occupancy models can unintentionally influence parameter estimation. Using both simulated data and empirical examples, we illustrate how this issue likely compromises inference about species-habitat relationships. While the extent to which these informative priors influence inference depends on the data set, researchers fitting Bayesian occupancy models should conduct sensitivity analyses to ensure intended inference, or employ less commonly used priors that are less informative (e.g., logistic or t prior distributions). We provide suggestions for addressing this issue in occupancy studies, and an online tool for exploring this issue under different contexts. PMID:29481554

The Bayesian boom: good thing or bad?

PubMed Central

Hahn, Ulrike

2014-01-01

A series of high-profile critiques of Bayesian models of cognition have recently sparked controversy. These critiques question the contribution of rational, normative considerations in the study of cognition. The present article takes central claims from these critiques and evaluates them in light of specific models. Closer consideration of actual examples of Bayesian treatments of different cognitive phenomena allows one to defuse these critiques showing that they cannot be sustained across the diversity of applications of the Bayesian framework for cognitive modeling. More generally, there is nothing in the Bayesian framework that would inherently give rise to the deficits that these critiques perceive, suggesting they have been framed at the wrong level of generality. At the same time, the examples are used to demonstrate the different ways in which consideration of rationality uniquely benefits both theory and practice in the study of cognition. PMID:25152738

Calibrating Bayesian Network Representations of Social-Behavioral Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whitney, Paul D.; Walsh, Stephen J.

2010-04-08

While human behavior has long been studied, recent and ongoing advances in computational modeling present opportunities for recasting research outcomes in human behavior. In this paper we describe how Bayesian networks can represent outcomes of human behavior research. We demonstrate a Bayesian network that represents political radicalization research – and show a corresponding visual representation of aspects of this research outcome. Since Bayesian networks can be quantitatively compared with external observations, the representation can also be used for empirical assessments of the research which the network summarizes. For a political radicalization model based on published research, we show this empiricalmore » comparison with data taken from the Minorities at Risk Organizational Behaviors database.« less

A comprehensive probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, C.; Qin, T. X.; Jiang, B.; Huang, C.

2018-02-01

Oil pipelines network is one of the most important facilities of energy transportation. But oil pipelines network accident may result in serious disasters. Some analysis models for these accidents have been established mainly based on three methods, including event-tree, accident simulation and Bayesian network. Among these methods, Bayesian network is suitable for probabilistic analysis. But not all the important influencing factors are considered and the deployment rule of the factors has not been established. This paper proposed a probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network. Most of the important influencing factors, including the key environment condition and emergency response are considered in this model. Moreover, the paper also introduces a deployment rule for these factors. The model can be used in probabilistic analysis and sensitive analysis of oil pipelines network accident.

An evaluation of Bayesian techniques for controlling model complexity and selecting inputs in a neural network for short-term load forecasting.

PubMed

Hippert, Henrique S; Taylor, James W

2010-04-01

Artificial neural networks have frequently been proposed for electricity load forecasting because of their capabilities for the nonlinear modelling of large multivariate data sets. Modelling with neural networks is not an easy task though; two of the main challenges are defining the appropriate level of model complexity, and choosing the input variables. This paper evaluates techniques for automatic neural network modelling within a Bayesian framework, as applied to six samples containing daily load and weather data for four different countries. We analyse input selection as carried out by the Bayesian 'automatic relevance determination', and the usefulness of the Bayesian 'evidence' for the selection of the best structure (in terms of number of neurones), as compared to methods based on cross-validation. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of the Bayesian approach to fitting the N-mixture model for use with pseudo-replicated count data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Toribo, S.G.; Gray, B.R.; Liang, S.

2011-01-01

The N-mixture model proposed by Royle in 2004 may be used to approximate the abundance and detection probability of animal species in a given region. In 2006, Royle and Dorazio discussed the advantages of using a Bayesian approach in modelling animal abundance and occurrence using a hierarchical N-mixture model. N-mixture models assume replication on sampling sites, an assumption that may be violated when the site is not closed to changes in abundance during the survey period or when nominal replicates are defined spatially. In this paper, we studied the robustness of a Bayesian approach to fitting the N-mixture model for pseudo-replicated count data. Our simulation results showed that the Bayesian estimates for abundance and detection probability are slightly biased when the actual detection probability is small and are sensitive to the presence of extra variability within local sites.

Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jesus, J. F.; Valentim, R.; Andrade-Oliveira, F.

2017-09-01

Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3αH0 model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

Refining value-at-risk estimates using a Bayesian Markov-switching GJR-GARCH copula-EVT model.

PubMed

Sampid, Marius Galabe; Hasim, Haslifah M; Dai, Hongsheng

2018-01-01

In this paper, we propose a model for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a Bayesian Markov-switching GJR-GARCH(1,1) model with skewed Student's-t innovation, copula functions and extreme value theory. A Bayesian Markov-switching GJR-GARCH(1,1) model that identifies non-constant volatility over time and allows the GARCH parameters to vary over time following a Markov process, is combined with copula functions and EVT to formulate the Bayesian Markov-switching GJR-GARCH(1,1) copula-EVT VaR model, which is then used to forecast the level of risk on financial asset returns. We further propose a new method for threshold selection in EVT analysis, which we term the hybrid method. Empirical and back-testing results show that the proposed VaR models capture VaR reasonably well in periods of calm and in periods of crisis.

Comparing interval estimates for small sample ordinal CFA models

PubMed Central

Natesan, Prathiba

2015-01-01

Robust maximum likelihood (RML) and asymptotically generalized least squares (AGLS) methods have been recommended for fitting ordinal structural equation models. Studies show that some of these methods underestimate standard errors. However, these studies have not investigated the coverage and bias of interval estimates. An estimate with a reasonable standard error could still be severely biased. This can only be known by systematically investigating the interval estimates. The present study compares Bayesian, RML, and AGLS interval estimates of factor correlations in ordinal confirmatory factor analysis models (CFA) for small sample data. Six sample sizes, 3 factor correlations, and 2 factor score distributions (multivariate normal and multivariate mildly skewed) were studied. Two Bayesian prior specifications, informative and relatively less informative were studied. Undercoverage of confidence intervals and underestimation of standard errors was common in non-Bayesian methods. Underestimated standard errors may lead to inflated Type-I error rates. Non-Bayesian intervals were more positive biased than negatively biased, that is, most intervals that did not contain the true value were greater than the true value. Some non-Bayesian methods had non-converging and inadmissible solutions for small samples and non-normal data. Bayesian empirical standard error estimates for informative and relatively less informative priors were closer to the average standard errors of the estimates. The coverage of Bayesian credibility intervals was closer to what was expected with overcoverage in a few cases. Although some Bayesian credibility intervals were wider, they reflected the nature of statistical uncertainty that comes with the data (e.g., small sample). Bayesian point estimates were also more accurate than non-Bayesian estimates. The results illustrate the importance of analyzing coverage and bias of interval estimates, and how ignoring interval estimates can be misleading. Therefore, editors and policymakers should continue to emphasize the inclusion of interval estimates in research. PMID:26579002

Comparing interval estimates for small sample ordinal CFA models.

PubMed

Natesan, Prathiba

2015-01-01

Robust maximum likelihood (RML) and asymptotically generalized least squares (AGLS) methods have been recommended for fitting ordinal structural equation models. Studies show that some of these methods underestimate standard errors. However, these studies have not investigated the coverage and bias of interval estimates. An estimate with a reasonable standard error could still be severely biased. This can only be known by systematically investigating the interval estimates. The present study compares Bayesian, RML, and AGLS interval estimates of factor correlations in ordinal confirmatory factor analysis models (CFA) for small sample data. Six sample sizes, 3 factor correlations, and 2 factor score distributions (multivariate normal and multivariate mildly skewed) were studied. Two Bayesian prior specifications, informative and relatively less informative were studied. Undercoverage of confidence intervals and underestimation of standard errors was common in non-Bayesian methods. Underestimated standard errors may lead to inflated Type-I error rates. Non-Bayesian intervals were more positive biased than negatively biased, that is, most intervals that did not contain the true value were greater than the true value. Some non-Bayesian methods had non-converging and inadmissible solutions for small samples and non-normal data. Bayesian empirical standard error estimates for informative and relatively less informative priors were closer to the average standard errors of the estimates. The coverage of Bayesian credibility intervals was closer to what was expected with overcoverage in a few cases. Although some Bayesian credibility intervals were wider, they reflected the nature of statistical uncertainty that comes with the data (e.g., small sample). Bayesian point estimates were also more accurate than non-Bayesian estimates. The results illustrate the importance of analyzing coverage and bias of interval estimates, and how ignoring interval estimates can be misleading. Therefore, editors and policymakers should continue to emphasize the inclusion of interval estimates in research.

Bayesian demography 250 years after Bayes

PubMed Central

Bijak, Jakub; Bryant, John

2016-01-01

Bayesian statistics offers an alternative to classical (frequentist) statistics. It is distinguished by its use of probability distributions to describe uncertain quantities, which leads to elegant solutions to many difficult statistical problems. Although Bayesian demography, like Bayesian statistics more generally, is around 250 years old, only recently has it begun to flourish. The aim of this paper is to review the achievements of Bayesian demography, address some misconceptions, and make the case for wider use of Bayesian methods in population studies. We focus on three applications: demographic forecasts, limited data, and highly structured or complex models. The key advantages of Bayesian methods are the ability to integrate information from multiple sources and to describe uncertainty coherently. Bayesian methods also allow for including additional (prior) information next to the data sample. As such, Bayesian approaches are complementary to many traditional methods, which can be productively re-expressed in Bayesian terms. PMID:26902889

A Bayesian approach to meta-analysis of plant pathology studies.

PubMed

Mila, A L; Ngugi, H K

2011-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are used for meta-analysis in many disciplines, including medicine, molecular biology, and engineering, but have not yet been applied for quantitative synthesis of plant pathology studies. In this paper, we illustrate the key concepts of Bayesian statistics and outline the differences between Bayesian and classical (frequentist) methods in the way parameters describing population attributes are considered. We then describe a Bayesian approach to meta-analysis and present a plant pathological example based on studies evaluating the efficacy of plant protection products that induce systemic acquired resistance for the management of fire blight of apple. In a simple random-effects model assuming a normal distribution of effect sizes and no prior information (i.e., a noninformative prior), the results of the Bayesian meta-analysis are similar to those obtained with classical methods. Implementing the same model with a Student's t distribution and a noninformative prior for the effect sizes, instead of a normal distribution, yields similar results for all but acibenzolar-S-methyl (Actigard) which was evaluated only in seven studies in this example. Whereas both the classical (P = 0.28) and the Bayesian analysis with a noninformative prior (95% credibility interval [CRI] for the log response ratio: -0.63 to 0.08) indicate a nonsignificant effect for Actigard, specifying a t distribution resulted in a significant, albeit variable, effect for this product (CRI: -0.73 to -0.10). These results confirm the sensitivity of the analytical outcome (i.e., the posterior distribution) to the choice of prior in Bayesian meta-analyses involving a limited number of studies. We review some pertinent literature on more advanced topics, including modeling of among-study heterogeneity, publication bias, analyses involving a limited number of studies, and methods for dealing with missing data, and show how these issues can be approached in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian meta-analysis can readily include information not easily incorporated in classical methods, and allow for a full evaluation of competing models. Given the power and flexibility of Bayesian methods, we expect them to become widely adopted for meta-analysis of plant pathology studies.

Introduction to Bayesian statistical approaches to compositional analyses of transgenic crops 1. Model validation and setting the stage.

PubMed

Harrison, Jay M; Breeze, Matthew L; Harrigan, George G

2011-08-01

Statistical comparisons of compositional data generated on genetically modified (GM) crops and their near-isogenic conventional (non-GM) counterparts typically rely on classical significance testing. This manuscript presents an introduction to Bayesian methods for compositional analysis along with recommendations for model validation. The approach is illustrated using protein and fat data from two herbicide tolerant GM soybeans (MON87708 and MON87708×MON89788) and a conventional comparator grown in the US in 2008 and 2009. Guidelines recommended by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in conducting Bayesian analyses of clinical studies on medical devices were followed. This study is the first Bayesian approach to GM and non-GM compositional comparisons. The evaluation presented here supports a conclusion that a Bayesian approach to analyzing compositional data can provide meaningful and interpretable results. We further describe the importance of method validation and approaches to model checking if Bayesian approaches to compositional data analysis are to be considered viable by scientists involved in GM research and regulation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A surrogate-based sensitivity quantification and Bayesian inversion of a regional groundwater flow model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Mingjie; Izady, Azizallah; Abdalla, Osman A.; Amerjeed, Mansoor

2018-02-01

Bayesian inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provides an explicit framework for stochastic calibration of hydrogeologic models accounting for uncertainties; however, the MCMC sampling entails a large number of model calls, and could easily become computationally unwieldy if the high-fidelity hydrogeologic model simulation is time consuming. This study proposes a surrogate-based Bayesian framework to address this notorious issue, and illustrates the methodology by inverse modeling a regional MODFLOW model. The high-fidelity groundwater model is approximated by a fast statistical model using Bagging Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (BMARS) algorithm, and hence the MCMC sampling can be efficiently performed. In this study, the MODFLOW model is developed to simulate the groundwater flow in an arid region of Oman consisting of mountain-coast aquifers, and used to run representative simulations to generate training dataset for BMARS model construction. A BMARS-based Sobol' method is also employed to efficiently calculate input parameter sensitivities, which are used to evaluate and rank their importance for the groundwater flow model system. According to sensitivity analysis, insensitive parameters are screened out of Bayesian inversion of the MODFLOW model, further saving computing efforts. The posterior probability distribution of input parameters is efficiently inferred from the prescribed prior distribution using observed head data, demonstrating that the presented BMARS-based Bayesian framework is an efficient tool to reduce parameter uncertainties of a groundwater system.

Predicting the Future as Bayesian Inference: People Combine Prior Knowledge with Observations when Estimating Duration and Extent

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffiths, Thomas L.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

2011-01-01

Predicting the future is a basic problem that people have to solve every day and a component of planning, decision making, memory, and causal reasoning. In this article, we present 5 experiments testing a Bayesian model of predicting the duration or extent of phenomena from their current state. This Bayesian model indicates how people should…

Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-05-09

inference 2.2.1 Background There are a number of statistical inference problems that are not generally formulated via a full probability model...problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...the problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability model/likelihood which can be an obstacle

Posterior Predictive Model Checking in Bayesian Networks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crawford, Aaron

2014-01-01

This simulation study compared the utility of various discrepancy measures within a posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) framework for detecting different types of data-model misfit in multidimensional Bayesian network (BN) models. The investigated conditions were motivated by an applied research program utilizing an operational complex…

Metrics for evaluating performance and uncertainty of Bayesian network models

Treesearch

Bruce G. Marcot

2012-01-01

This paper presents a selected set of existing and new metrics for gauging Bayesian network model performance and uncertainty. Selected existing and new metrics are discussed for conducting model sensitivity analysis (variance reduction, entropy reduction, case file simulation); evaluating scenarios (influence analysis); depicting model complexity (numbers of model...

Technical note: Bayesian calibration of dynamic ruminant nutrition models.

PubMed

Reed, K F; Arhonditsis, G B; France, J; Kebreab, E

2016-08-01

Mechanistic models of ruminant digestion and metabolism have advanced our understanding of the processes underlying ruminant animal physiology. Deterministic modeling practices ignore the inherent variation within and among individual animals and thus have no way to assess how sources of error influence model outputs. We introduce Bayesian calibration of mathematical models to address the need for robust mechanistic modeling tools that can accommodate error analysis by remaining within the bounds of data-based parameter estimation. For the purpose of prediction, the Bayesian approach generates a posterior predictive distribution that represents the current estimate of the value of the response variable, taking into account both the uncertainty about the parameters and model residual variability. Predictions are expressed as probability distributions, thereby conveying significantly more information than point estimates in regard to uncertainty. Our study illustrates some of the technical advantages of Bayesian calibration and discusses the future perspectives in the context of animal nutrition modeling. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian logistic regression approaches to predict incorrect DRG assignment.

PubMed

Suleiman, Mani; Demirhan, Haydar; Boyd, Leanne; Girosi, Federico; Aksakalli, Vural

2018-05-07

Episodes of care involving similar diagnoses and treatments and requiring similar levels of resource utilisation are grouped to the same Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG). In jurisdictions which implement DRG based payment systems, DRGs are a major determinant of funding for inpatient care. Hence, service providers often dedicate auditing staff to the task of checking that episodes have been coded to the correct DRG. The use of statistical models to estimate an episode's probability of DRG error can significantly improve the efficiency of clinical coding audits. This study implements Bayesian logistic regression models with weakly informative prior distributions to estimate the likelihood that episodes require a DRG revision, comparing these models with each other and to classical maximum likelihood estimates. All Bayesian approaches had more stable model parameters than maximum likelihood. The best performing Bayesian model improved overall classification per- formance by 6% compared to maximum likelihood, with a 34% gain compared to random classification, respectively. We found that the original DRG, coder and the day of coding all have a significant effect on the likelihood of DRG error. Use of Bayesian approaches has improved model parameter stability and classification accuracy. This method has already lead to improved audit efficiency in an operational capacity.

Assessment of parametric uncertainty for groundwater reactive transport modeling,

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shi, Xiaoqing; Ye, Ming; Curtis, Gary P.; Miller, Geoffery L.; Meyer, Philip D.; Kohler, Matthias; Yabusaki, Steve; Wu, Jichun

2014-01-01

The validity of using Gaussian assumptions for model residuals in uncertainty quantification of a groundwater reactive transport model was evaluated in this study. Least squares regression methods explicitly assume Gaussian residuals, and the assumption leads to Gaussian likelihood functions, model parameters, and model predictions. While the Bayesian methods do not explicitly require the Gaussian assumption, Gaussian residuals are widely used. This paper shows that the residuals of the reactive transport model are non-Gaussian, heteroscedastic, and correlated in time; characterizing them requires using a generalized likelihood function such as the formal generalized likelihood function developed by Schoups and Vrugt (2010). For the surface complexation model considered in this study for simulating uranium reactive transport in groundwater, parametric uncertainty is quantified using the least squares regression methods and Bayesian methods with both Gaussian and formal generalized likelihood functions. While the least squares methods and Bayesian methods with Gaussian likelihood function produce similar Gaussian parameter distributions, the parameter distributions of Bayesian uncertainty quantification using the formal generalized likelihood function are non-Gaussian. In addition, predictive performance of formal generalized likelihood function is superior to that of least squares regression and Bayesian methods with Gaussian likelihood function. The Bayesian uncertainty quantification is conducted using the differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM(zs)) algorithm; as a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, it is a robust tool for quantifying uncertainty in groundwater reactive transport models. For the surface complexation model, the regression-based local sensitivity analysis and Morris- and DREAM(ZS)-based global sensitivity analysis yield almost identical ranking of parameter importance. The uncertainty analysis may help select appropriate likelihood functions, improve model calibration, and reduce predictive uncertainty in other groundwater reactive transport and environmental modeling.

A Practical Probabilistic Graphical Modeling Tool for Weighing ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Past weight-of-evidence frameworks for adverse ecological effects have provided soft-scoring procedures for judgments based on the quality and measured attributes of evidence. Here, we provide a flexible probabilistic structure for weighing and integrating lines of evidence for ecological risk determinations. Probabilistic approaches can provide both a quantitative weighing of lines of evidence and methods for evaluating risk and uncertainty. The current modeling structure wasdeveloped for propagating uncertainties in measured endpoints and their influence on the plausibility of adverse effects. To illustrate the approach, we apply the model framework to the sediment quality triad using example lines of evidence for sediment chemistry measurements, bioassay results, and in situ infauna diversity of benthic communities using a simplified hypothetical case study. We then combine the three lines evidence and evaluate sensitivity to the input parameters, and show how uncertainties are propagated and how additional information can be incorporated to rapidly update the probability of impacts. The developed network model can be expanded to accommodate additional lines of evidence, variables and states of importance, and different types of uncertainties in the lines of evidence including spatial and temporal as well as measurement errors. We provide a flexible Bayesian network structure for weighing and integrating lines of evidence for ecological risk determinations

Prospective evaluation of a Bayesian model to predict organizational change.

PubMed

Molfenter, Todd; Gustafson, Dave; Kilo, Chuck; Bhattacharya, Abhik; Olsson, Jesper

2005-01-01

This research examines a subjective Bayesian model's ability to predict organizational change outcomes and sustainability of those outcomes for project teams participating in a multi-organizational improvement collaborative.

Bayesian truncation errors in chiral effective field theory: model checking and accounting for correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melendez, Jordan; Wesolowski, Sarah; Furnstahl, Dick

2017-09-01

Chiral effective field theory (EFT) predictions are necessarily truncated at some order in the EFT expansion, which induces an error that must be quantified for robust statistical comparisons to experiment. A Bayesian model yields posterior probability distribution functions for these errors based on expectations of naturalness encoded in Bayesian priors and the observed order-by-order convergence pattern of the EFT. As a general example of a statistical approach to truncation errors, the model was applied to chiral EFT for neutron-proton scattering using various semi-local potentials of Epelbaum, Krebs, and Meißner (EKM). Here we discuss how our model can learn correlation information from the data and how to perform Bayesian model checking to validate that the EFT is working as advertised. Supported in part by NSF PHY-1614460 and DOE NUCLEI SciDAC DE-SC0008533.

The Geoinformatica free and open source software stack

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jolma, A.

2012-04-01

The Geoinformatica free and open source software (FOSS) stack is based mainly on three established FOSS components, namely GDAL, GTK+, and Perl. GDAL provides access to a very large selection of geospatial data formats and data sources, a generic geospatial data model, and a large collection of geospatial analytical and processing functionality. GTK+ and the Cairo graphics library provide generic graphics and graphical user interface capabilities. Perl is a programming language, for which there is a very large set of FOSS modules for a wide range of purposes and which can be used as an integrative tool for building applications. In the Geoinformatica stack, data storages such as FOSS RDBMS PostgreSQL with its geospatial extension PostGIS can be used below the three above mentioned components. The top layer of Geoinformatica consists of a C library and several Perl modules. The C library comprises a general purpose raster algebra library, hydrological terrain analysis functions, and visualization code. The Perl modules define a generic visualized geospatial data layer and subclasses for raster and vector data and graphs. The hydrological terrain functions are already rather old and they suffer for example from the requirement of in-memory rasters. Newer research conducted using the platform include basic geospatial simulation modeling, visualization of ecological data, linking with a Bayesian network engine for spatial risk assessment in coastal areas, and developing standards-based distributed water resources information systems in Internet. The Geoinformatica stack constitutes a platform for geospatial research, which is targeted towards custom analytical tools, prototyping and linking with external libraries. Writing custom analytical tools is supported by the Perl language and the large collection of tools that are available especially in GDAL and Perl modules. Prototyping is supported by the GTK+ library, the GUI tools, and the support for object-oriented programming in Perl. New feature types, geospatial layer classes, and tools as extensions with specific features can be defined, used, and studied. Linking with external libraries is possible using the Perl foreign function interface tools or with generic tools such as Swig. We are interested in implementing and testing linking Geoinformatica with existing or new more specific hydrological FOSS.

A FAST BAYESIAN METHOD FOR UPDATING AND FORECASTING HOURLY OZONE LEVELS

EPA Science Inventory

A Bayesian hierarchical space-time model is proposed by combining information from real-time ambient AIRNow air monitoring data, and output from a computer simulation model known as the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (Eta-CMAQ) forecast model. A model validation analysis shows...

Bayesian methods for characterizing unknown parameters of material models

DOE PAGES

Emery, J. M.; Grigoriu, M. D.; Field Jr., R. V.

2016-02-04

A Bayesian framework is developed for characterizing the unknown parameters of probabilistic models for material properties. In this framework, the unknown parameters are viewed as random and described by their posterior distributions obtained from prior information and measurements of quantities of interest that are observable and depend on the unknown parameters. The proposed Bayesian method is applied to characterize an unknown spatial correlation of the conductivity field in the definition of a stochastic transport equation and to solve this equation by Monte Carlo simulation and stochastic reduced order models (SROMs). As a result, the Bayesian method is also employed tomore » characterize unknown parameters of material properties for laser welds from measurements of peak forces sustained by these welds.« less

Bayesian methods for characterizing unknown parameters of material models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Emery, J. M.; Grigoriu, M. D.; Field Jr., R. V.

A Bayesian framework is developed for characterizing the unknown parameters of probabilistic models for material properties. In this framework, the unknown parameters are viewed as random and described by their posterior distributions obtained from prior information and measurements of quantities of interest that are observable and depend on the unknown parameters. The proposed Bayesian method is applied to characterize an unknown spatial correlation of the conductivity field in the definition of a stochastic transport equation and to solve this equation by Monte Carlo simulation and stochastic reduced order models (SROMs). As a result, the Bayesian method is also employed tomore » characterize unknown parameters of material properties for laser welds from measurements of peak forces sustained by these welds.« less

Bayesian methods in reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

1991-11-01

The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

Bayesian Action–Perception Computational Model: Interaction of Production and Recognition of Cursive Letters

PubMed Central

Gilet, Estelle; Diard, Julien; Bessière, Pierre

2011-01-01

In this paper, we study the collaboration of perception and action representations involved in cursive letter recognition and production. We propose a mathematical formulation for the whole perception–action loop, based on probabilistic modeling and Bayesian inference, which we call the Bayesian Action–Perception (BAP) model. Being a model of both perception and action processes, the purpose of this model is to study the interaction of these processes. More precisely, the model includes a feedback loop from motor production, which implements an internal simulation of movement. Motor knowledge can therefore be involved during perception tasks. In this paper, we formally define the BAP model and show how it solves the following six varied cognitive tasks using Bayesian inference: i) letter recognition (purely sensory), ii) writer recognition, iii) letter production (with different effectors), iv) copying of trajectories, v) copying of letters, and vi) letter recognition (with internal simulation of movements). We present computer simulations of each of these cognitive tasks, and discuss experimental predictions and theoretical developments. PMID:21674043

Finding Bayesian Optimal Designs for Nonlinear Models: A Semidefinite Programming-Based Approach.

PubMed

Duarte, Belmiro P M; Wong, Weng Kee

2015-08-01

This paper uses semidefinite programming (SDP) to construct Bayesian optimal design for nonlinear regression models. The setup here extends the formulation of the optimal designs problem as an SDP problem from linear to nonlinear models. Gaussian quadrature formulas (GQF) are used to compute the expectation in the Bayesian design criterion, such as D-, A- or E-optimality. As an illustrative example, we demonstrate the approach using the power-logistic model and compare results in the literature. Additionally, we investigate how the optimal design is impacted by different discretising schemes for the design space, different amounts of uncertainty in the parameter values, different choices of GQF and different prior distributions for the vector of model parameters, including normal priors with and without correlated components. Further applications to find Bayesian D-optimal designs with two regressors for a logistic model and a two-variable generalised linear model with a gamma distributed response are discussed, and some limitations of our approach are noted.

Finding Bayesian Optimal Designs for Nonlinear Models: A Semidefinite Programming-Based Approach

PubMed Central

Duarte, Belmiro P. M.; Wong, Weng Kee

2014-01-01

Summary This paper uses semidefinite programming (SDP) to construct Bayesian optimal design for nonlinear regression models. The setup here extends the formulation of the optimal designs problem as an SDP problem from linear to nonlinear models. Gaussian quadrature formulas (GQF) are used to compute the expectation in the Bayesian design criterion, such as D-, A- or E-optimality. As an illustrative example, we demonstrate the approach using the power-logistic model and compare results in the literature. Additionally, we investigate how the optimal design is impacted by different discretising schemes for the design space, different amounts of uncertainty in the parameter values, different choices of GQF and different prior distributions for the vector of model parameters, including normal priors with and without correlated components. Further applications to find Bayesian D-optimal designs with two regressors for a logistic model and a two-variable generalised linear model with a gamma distributed response are discussed, and some limitations of our approach are noted. PMID:26512159

A systematic review of Bayesian articles in psychology: The last 25 years.

PubMed

van de Schoot, Rens; Winter, Sonja D; Ryan, Oisín; Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, Mariëlle; Depaoli, Sarah

2017-06-01

Although the statistical tools most often used by researchers in the field of psychology over the last 25 years are based on frequentist statistics, it is often claimed that the alternative Bayesian approach to statistics is gaining in popularity. In the current article, we investigated this claim by performing the very first systematic review of Bayesian psychological articles published between 1990 and 2015 (n = 1,579). We aim to provide a thorough presentation of the role Bayesian statistics plays in psychology. This historical assessment allows us to identify trends and see how Bayesian methods have been integrated into psychological research in the context of different statistical frameworks (e.g., hypothesis testing, cognitive models, IRT, SEM, etc.). We also describe take-home messages and provide "big-picture" recommendations to the field as Bayesian statistics becomes more popular. Our review indicated that Bayesian statistics is used in a variety of contexts across subfields of psychology and related disciplines. There are many different reasons why one might choose to use Bayes (e.g., the use of priors, estimating otherwise intractable models, modeling uncertainty, etc.). We found in this review that the use of Bayes has increased and broadened in the sense that this methodology can be used in a flexible manner to tackle many different forms of questions. We hope this presentation opens the door for a larger discussion regarding the current state of Bayesian statistics, as well as future trends. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

A Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert M.; Rodriguez, Daniel Taylor

2012-01-01

1. A Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data containing covariates of species occurrence and species detection probabilities is usually completed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in conjunction with software programs that can implement those methods for any statistical model, not just site-occupancy models. Although these software programs are quite flexible, considerable experience is often required to specify a model and to initialize the Markov chain so that summaries of the posterior distribution can be estimated efficiently and accurately. 2. As an alternative to these programs, we develop a Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data that include covariates of species occurrence and species detection probabilities. This Gibbs sampler is based on a class of site-occupancy models in which probabilities of species occurrence and detection are specified as probit-regression functions of site- and survey-specific covariate measurements. 3. To illustrate the Gibbs sampler, we analyse site-occupancy data of the blue hawker, Aeshna cyanea (Odonata, Aeshnidae), a common dragonfly species in Switzerland. Our analysis includes a comparison of results based on Bayesian and classical (non-Bayesian) methods of inference. We also provide code (based on the R software program) for conducting Bayesian and classical analyses of site-occupancy data.

Bayesian estimation and use of high-throughput remote sensing indices for quantitative genetic analyses of leaf growth.

PubMed

Baker, Robert L; Leong, Wen Fung; An, Nan; Brock, Marcus T; Rubin, Matthew J; Welch, Stephen; Weinig, Cynthia

2018-02-01

We develop Bayesian function-valued trait models that mathematically isolate genetic mechanisms underlying leaf growth trajectories by factoring out genotype-specific differences in photosynthesis. Remote sensing data can be used instead of leaf-level physiological measurements. Characterizing the genetic basis of traits that vary during ontogeny and affect plant performance is a major goal in evolutionary biology and agronomy. Describing genetic programs that specifically regulate morphological traits can be complicated by genotypic differences in physiological traits. We describe the growth trajectories of leaves using novel Bayesian function-valued trait (FVT) modeling approaches in Brassica rapa recombinant inbred lines raised in heterogeneous field settings. While frequentist approaches estimate parameter values by treating each experimental replicate discretely, Bayesian models can utilize information in the global dataset, potentially leading to more robust trait estimation. We illustrate this principle by estimating growth asymptotes in the face of missing data and comparing heritabilities of growth trajectory parameters estimated by Bayesian and frequentist approaches. Using pseudo-Bayes factors, we compare the performance of an initial Bayesian logistic growth model and a model that incorporates carbon assimilation (A max ) as a cofactor, thus statistically accounting for genotypic differences in carbon resources. We further evaluate two remotely sensed spectroradiometric indices, photochemical reflectance (pri2) and MERIS Terrestrial Chlorophyll Index (mtci) as covariates in lieu of A max , because these two indices were genetically correlated with A max across years and treatments yet allow much higher throughput compared to direct leaf-level gas-exchange measurements. For leaf lengths in uncrowded settings, including A max improves model fit over the initial model. The mtci and pri2 indices also outperform direct A max measurements. Of particular importance for evolutionary biologists and plant breeders, hierarchical Bayesian models estimating FVT parameters improve heritabilities compared to frequentist approaches.

Bayesian Estimation of the Logistic Positive Exponent IRT Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bolfarine, Heleno; Bazan, Jorge Luis

2010-01-01

A Bayesian inference approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is developed for the logistic positive exponent (LPE) model proposed by Samejima and for a new skewed Logistic Item Response Theory (IRT) model, named Reflection LPE model. Both models lead to asymmetric item characteristic curves (ICC) and can be appropriate because a symmetric…

The Misidentified Identifiability Problem of Bayesian Knowledge Tracing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doroudi, Shayan; Brunskill, Emma

2017-01-01

In this paper, we investigate two purported problems with Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT), a popular statistical model of student learning: "identifiability" and "semantic model degeneracy." In 2007, Beck and Chang stated that BKT is susceptible to an "identifiability problem"--various models with different…

Common quandaries and their practical solutions in Bayesian network modeling

Treesearch

Bruce G. Marcot

2017-01-01

Use and popularity of Bayesian network (BN) modeling has greatly expanded in recent years, but many common problems remain. Here, I summarize key problems in BN model construction and interpretation,along with suggested practical solutions. Problems in BN model construction include parameterizing probability values, variable definition, complex network structures,...

On the Bayesian Nonparametric Generalization of IRT-Type Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

San Martin, Ernesto; Jara, Alejandro; Rolin, Jean-Marie; Mouchart, Michel

2011-01-01

We study the identification and consistency of Bayesian semiparametric IRT-type models, where the uncertainty on the abilities' distribution is modeled using a prior distribution on the space of probability measures. We show that for the semiparametric Rasch Poisson counts model, simple restrictions ensure the identification of a general…

Selected aspects of prior and likelihood information for a Bayesian classifier in a road safety analysis.

PubMed

Nowakowska, Marzena

2017-04-01

The development of the Bayesian logistic regression model classifying the road accident severity is discussed. The already exploited informative priors (method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation, and two-stage Bayesian updating), along with the original idea of a Boot prior proposal, are investigated when no expert opinion has been available. In addition, two possible approaches to updating the priors, in the form of unbalanced and balanced training data sets, are presented. The obtained logistic Bayesian models are assessed on the basis of a deviance information criterion (DIC), highest probability density (HPD) intervals, and coefficients of variation estimated for the model parameters. The verification of the model accuracy has been based on sensitivity, specificity and the harmonic mean of sensitivity and specificity, all calculated from a test data set. The models obtained from the balanced training data set have a better classification quality than the ones obtained from the unbalanced training data set. The two-stage Bayesian updating prior model and the Boot prior model, both identified with the use of the balanced training data set, outperform the non-informative, method of moments, and maximum likelihood estimation prior models. It is important to note that one should be careful when interpreting the parameters since different priors can lead to different models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian learning and the psychology of rule induction

PubMed Central

Endress, Ansgar D.

2014-01-01

In recent years, Bayesian learning models have been applied to an increasing variety of domains. While such models have been criticized on theoretical grounds, the underlying assumptions and predictions are rarely made concrete and tested experimentally. Here, I use Frank and Tenenbaum's (2011) Bayesian model of rule-learning as a case study to spell out the underlying assumptions, and to confront them with the empirical results Frank and Tenenbaum (2011) propose to simulate, as well as with novel experiments. While rule-learning is arguably well suited to rational Bayesian approaches, I show that their models are neither psychologically plausible nor ideal observer models. Further, I show that their central assumption is unfounded: humans do not always preferentially learn more specific rules, but, at least in some situations, those rules that happen to be more salient. Even when granting the unsupported assumptions, I show that all of the experiments modeled by Frank and Tenenbaum (2011) either contradict their models, or have a large number of more plausible interpretations. I provide an alternative account of the experimental data based on simple psychological mechanisms, and show that this account both describes the data better, and is easier to falsify. I conclude that, despite the recent surge in Bayesian models of cognitive phenomena, psychological phenomena are best understood by developing and testing psychological theories rather than models that can be fit to virtually any data. PMID:23454791

Robust Bayesian clustering.

PubMed

Archambeau, Cédric; Verleysen, Michel

2007-01-01

A new variational Bayesian learning algorithm for Student-t mixture models is introduced. This algorithm leads to (i) robust density estimation, (ii) robust clustering and (iii) robust automatic model selection. Gaussian mixture models are learning machines which are based on a divide-and-conquer approach. They are commonly used for density estimation and clustering tasks, but are sensitive to outliers. The Student-t distribution has heavier tails than the Gaussian distribution and is therefore less sensitive to any departure of the empirical distribution from Gaussianity. As a consequence, the Student-t distribution is suitable for constructing robust mixture models. In this work, we formalize the Bayesian Student-t mixture model as a latent variable model in a different way from Svensén and Bishop [Svensén, M., & Bishop, C. M. (2005). Robust Bayesian mixture modelling. Neurocomputing, 64, 235-252]. The main difference resides in the fact that it is not necessary to assume a factorized approximation of the posterior distribution on the latent indicator variables and the latent scale variables in order to obtain a tractable solution. Not neglecting the correlations between these unobserved random variables leads to a Bayesian model having an increased robustness. Furthermore, it is expected that the lower bound on the log-evidence is tighter. Based on this bound, the model complexity, i.e. the number of components in the mixture, can be inferred with a higher confidence.

Advances in Bayesian Modeling in Educational Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levy, Roy

2016-01-01

In this article, I provide a conceptually oriented overview of Bayesian approaches to statistical inference and contrast them with frequentist approaches that currently dominate conventional practice in educational research. The features and advantages of Bayesian approaches are illustrated with examples spanning several statistical modeling…

Bayesian Analysis of Multidimensional Item Response Theory Models: A Discussion and Illustration of Three Response Style Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leventhal, Brian C.; Stone, Clement A.

2018-01-01

Interest in Bayesian analysis of item response theory (IRT) models has grown tremendously due to the appeal of the paradigm among psychometricians, advantages of these methods when analyzing complex models, and availability of general-purpose software. Possible models include models which reflect multidimensionality due to designed test structure,…

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Products Operational Forecast Graphics Experimental Forecast Graphics Verification and Diagnostics Model PARALLEL/EXPERIMENTAL MODEL FORECAST GRAPHICS OPERATIONAL VERIFICATION / DIAGNOSTICS PARALLEL VERIFICATION Developmental Air Quality Forecasts and Verification Back to Table of Contents 2. PARALLEL/EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICS

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Operational Forecast Graphics Experimental Forecast Graphics Verification and Diagnostics Model Configuration /EXPERIMENTAL MODEL FORECAST GRAPHICS OPERATIONAL VERIFICATION / DIAGNOSTICS PARALLEL VERIFICATION / DIAGNOSTICS Developmental Air Quality Forecasts and Verification Back to Table of Contents 2. PARALLEL/EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICS

Testing adaptive toolbox models: a Bayesian hierarchical approach.

PubMed

Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2013-01-01

Many theories of human cognition postulate that people are equipped with a repertoire of strategies to solve the tasks they face. This theoretical framework of a cognitive toolbox provides a plausible account of intra- and interindividual differences in human behavior. Unfortunately, it is often unclear how to rigorously test the toolbox framework. How can a toolbox model be quantitatively specified? How can the number of toolbox strategies be limited to prevent uncontrolled strategy sprawl? How can a toolbox model be formally tested against alternative theories? The authors show how these challenges can be met by using Bayesian inference techniques. By means of parameter recovery simulations and the analysis of empirical data across a variety of domains (i.e., judgment and decision making, children's cognitive development, function learning, and perceptual categorization), the authors illustrate how Bayesian inference techniques allow toolbox models to be quantitatively specified, strategy sprawl to be contained, and toolbox models to be rigorously tested against competing theories. The authors demonstrate that their approach applies at the individual level but can also be generalized to the group level with hierarchical Bayesian procedures. The suggested Bayesian inference techniques represent a theoretical and methodological advancement for toolbox theories of cognition and behavior.

Tree Biomass Estimation of Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) Based on Bayesian Method

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jianguo

2013-01-01

Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook.) is the most important conifer species for timber production with huge distribution area in southern China. Accurate estimation of biomass is required for accounting and monitoring Chinese forest carbon stocking. In the study, allometric equation was used to analyze tree biomass of Chinese fir. The common methods for estimating allometric model have taken the classical approach based on the frequency interpretation of probability. However, many different biotic and abiotic factors introduce variability in Chinese fir biomass model, suggesting that parameters of biomass model are better represented by probability distributions rather than fixed values as classical method. To deal with the problem, Bayesian method was used for estimating Chinese fir biomass model. In the Bayesian framework, two priors were introduced: non-informative priors and informative priors. For informative priors, 32 biomass equations of Chinese fir were collected from published literature in the paper. The parameter distributions from published literature were regarded as prior distributions in Bayesian model for estimating Chinese fir biomass. Therefore, the Bayesian method with informative priors was better than non-informative priors and classical method, which provides a reasonable method for estimating Chinese fir biomass. PMID:24278198

Tree biomass estimation of Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) based on Bayesian method.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiongqing; Duan, Aiguo; Zhang, Jianguo

2013-01-01

Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook.) is the most important conifer species for timber production with huge distribution area in southern China. Accurate estimation of biomass is required for accounting and monitoring Chinese forest carbon stocking. In the study, allometric equation W = a(D2H)b was used to analyze tree biomass of Chinese fir. The common methods for estimating allometric model have taken the classical approach based on the frequency interpretation of probability. However, many different biotic and abiotic factors introduce variability in Chinese fir biomass model, suggesting that parameters of biomass model are better represented by probability distributions rather than fixed values as classical method. To deal with the problem, Bayesian method was used for estimating Chinese fir biomass model. In the Bayesian framework, two priors were introduced: non-informative priors and informative priors. For informative priors, 32 biomass equations of Chinese fir were collected from published literature in the paper. The parameter distributions from published literature were regarded as prior distributions in Bayesian model for estimating Chinese fir biomass. Therefore, the Bayesian method with informative priors was better than non-informative priors and classical method, which provides a reasonable method for estimating Chinese fir biomass.

Intelligent diagnosis of jaundice with dynamic uncertain causality graph model.

PubMed

Hao, Shao-Rui; Geng, Shi-Chao; Fan, Lin-Xiao; Chen, Jia-Jia; Zhang, Qin; Li, Lan-Juan

2017-05-01

Jaundice is a common and complex clinical symptom potentially occurring in hepatology, general surgery, pediatrics, infectious diseases, gynecology, and obstetrics, and it is fairly difficult to distinguish the cause of jaundice in clinical practice, especially for general practitioners in less developed regions. With collaboration between physicians and artificial intelligence engineers, a comprehensive knowledge base relevant to jaundice was created based on demographic information, symptoms, physical signs, laboratory tests, imaging diagnosis, medical histories, and risk factors. Then a diagnostic modeling and reasoning system using the dynamic uncertain causality graph was proposed. A modularized modeling scheme was presented to reduce the complexity of model construction, providing multiple perspectives and arbitrary granularity for disease causality representations. A "chaining" inference algorithm and weighted logic operation mechanism were employed to guarantee the exactness and efficiency of diagnostic reasoning under situations of incomplete and uncertain information. Moreover, the causal interactions among diseases and symptoms intuitively demonstrated the reasoning process in a graphical manner. Verification was performed using 203 randomly pooled clinical cases, and the accuracy was 99.01% and 84.73%, respectively, with or without laboratory tests in the model. The solutions were more explicable and convincing than common methods such as Bayesian Networks, further increasing the objectivity of clinical decision-making. The promising results indicated that our model could be potentially used in intelligent diagnosis and help decrease public health expenditure.

Intelligent diagnosis of jaundice with dynamic uncertain causality graph model*

PubMed Central

Hao, Shao-rui; Geng, Shi-chao; Fan, Lin-xiao; Chen, Jia-jia; Zhang, Qin; Li, Lan-juan

2017-01-01

Jaundice is a common and complex clinical symptom potentially occurring in hepatology, general surgery, pediatrics, infectious diseases, gynecology, and obstetrics, and it is fairly difficult to distinguish the cause of jaundice in clinical practice, especially for general practitioners in less developed regions. With collaboration between physicians and artificial intelligence engineers, a comprehensive knowledge base relevant to jaundice was created based on demographic information, symptoms, physical signs, laboratory tests, imaging diagnosis, medical histories, and risk factors. Then a diagnostic modeling and reasoning system using the dynamic uncertain causality graph was proposed. A modularized modeling scheme was presented to reduce the complexity of model construction, providing multiple perspectives and arbitrary granularity for disease causality representations. A “chaining” inference algorithm and weighted logic operation mechanism were employed to guarantee the exactness and efficiency of diagnostic reasoning under situations of incomplete and uncertain information. Moreover, the causal interactions among diseases and symptoms intuitively demonstrated the reasoning process in a graphical manner. Verification was performed using 203 randomly pooled clinical cases, and the accuracy was 99.01% and 84.73%, respectively, with or without laboratory tests in the model. The solutions were more explicable and convincing than common methods such as Bayesian Networks, further increasing the objectivity of clinical decision-making. The promising results indicated that our model could be potentially used in intelligent diagnosis and help decrease public health expenditure. PMID:28471111

Connections between Graphical Gaussian Models and Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salgueiro, M. Fatima; Smith, Peter W. F.; McDonald, John W.

2010-01-01

Connections between graphical Gaussian models and classical single-factor models are obtained by parameterizing the single-factor model as a graphical Gaussian model. Models are represented by independence graphs, and associations between each manifest variable and the latent factor are measured by factor partial correlations. Power calculations…

Posterior Predictive Bayesian Phylogenetic Model Selection

PubMed Central

Lewis, Paul O.; Xie, Wangang; Chen, Ming-Hui; Fan, Yu; Kuo, Lynn

2014-01-01

We present two distinctly different posterior predictive approaches to Bayesian phylogenetic model selection and illustrate these methods using examples from green algal protein-coding cpDNA sequences and flowering plant rDNA sequences. The Gelfand–Ghosh (GG) approach allows dissection of an overall measure of model fit into components due to posterior predictive variance (GGp) and goodness-of-fit (GGg), which distinguishes this method from the posterior predictive P-value approach. The conditional predictive ordinate (CPO) method provides a site-specific measure of model fit useful for exploratory analyses and can be combined over sites yielding the log pseudomarginal likelihood (LPML) which is useful as an overall measure of model fit. CPO provides a useful cross-validation approach that is computationally efficient, requiring only a sample from the posterior distribution (no additional simulation is required). Both GG and CPO add new perspectives to Bayesian phylogenetic model selection based on the predictive abilities of models and complement the perspective provided by the marginal likelihood (including Bayes Factor comparisons) based solely on the fit of competing models to observed data. [Bayesian; conditional predictive ordinate; CPO; L-measure; LPML; model selection; phylogenetics; posterior predictive.] PMID:24193892

Use of limited data to construct Bayesian networks for probabilistic risk assessment.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groth, Katrina M.; Swiler, Laura Painton

2013-03-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a fundamental part of safety/quality assurance for nuclear power and nuclear weapons. Traditional PRA very effectively models complex hardware system risks using binary probabilistic models. However, traditional PRA models are not flexible enough to accommodate non-binary soft-causal factors, such as digital instrumentation&control, passive components, aging, common cause failure, and human errors. Bayesian Networks offer the opportunity to incorporate these risks into the PRA framework. This report describes the results of an early career LDRD project titled %E2%80%9CUse of Limited Data to Construct Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Risk Assessment%E2%80%9D. The goal of the work was tomore » establish the capability to develop Bayesian Networks from sparse data, and to demonstrate this capability by producing a data-informed Bayesian Network for use in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) as part of nuclear power plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). This report summarizes the research goal and major products of the research.« less

Robust Bayesian Analysis of Heavy-tailed Stochastic Volatility Models using Scale Mixtures of Normal Distributions

PubMed Central

Abanto-Valle, C. A.; Bandyopadhyay, D.; Lachos, V. H.; Enriquez, I.

2009-01-01

A Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility (SV) models using the class of symmetric scale mixtures of normal (SMN) distributions is considered. In the face of non-normality, this provides an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of the normal distribution. Specific distributions examined include the normal, student-t, slash and the variance gamma distributions. Using a Bayesian paradigm, an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is introduced for parameter estimation. Moreover, the mixing parameters obtained as a by-product of the scale mixture representation can be used to identify outliers. The methods developed are applied to analyze daily stock returns data on S&P500 index. Bayesian model selection criteria as well as out-of- sample forecasting results reveal that the SV models based on heavy-tailed SMN distributions provide significant improvement in model fit as well as prediction to the S&P500 index data over the usual normal model. PMID:20730043

Application of a predictive Bayesian model to environmental accounting.

PubMed

Anex, R P; Englehardt, J D

2001-03-30

Environmental accounting techniques are intended to capture important environmental costs and benefits that are often overlooked in standard accounting practices. Environmental accounting methods themselves often ignore or inadequately represent large but highly uncertain environmental costs and costs conditioned by specific prior events. Use of a predictive Bayesian model is demonstrated for the assessment of such highly uncertain environmental and contingent costs. The predictive Bayesian approach presented generates probability distributions for the quantity of interest (rather than parameters thereof). A spreadsheet implementation of a previously proposed predictive Bayesian model, extended to represent contingent costs, is described and used to evaluate whether a firm should undertake an accelerated phase-out of its PCB containing transformers. Variability and uncertainty (due to lack of information) in transformer accident frequency and severity are assessed simultaneously using a combination of historical accident data, engineering model-based cost estimates, and subjective judgement. Model results are compared using several different risk measures. Use of the model for incorporation of environmental risk management into a company's overall risk management strategy is discussed.

A Bayesian modification to the Jelinski-Moranda software reliability growth model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Littlewood, B.; Sofer, A.

1983-01-01

The Jelinski-Moranda (JM) model for software reliability was examined. It is suggested that a major reason for the poor results given by this model is the poor performance of the maximum likelihood method (ML) of parameter estimation. A reparameterization and Bayesian analysis, involving a slight modelling change, are proposed. It is shown that this new Bayesian-Jelinski-Moranda model (BJM) is mathematically quite tractable, and several metrics of interest to practitioners are obtained. The BJM and JM models are compared by using several sets of real software failure data collected and in all cases the BJM model gives superior reliability predictions. A change in the assumption which underlay both models to present the debugging process more accurately is discussed.

Bayesian regression models outperform partial least squares methods for predicting milk components and technological properties using infrared spectral data

PubMed Central

Ferragina, A.; de los Campos, G.; Vazquez, A. I.; Cecchinato, A.; Bittante, G.

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess the performance of Bayesian models commonly used for genomic selection to predict “difficult-to-predict” dairy traits, such as milk fatty acid (FA) expressed as percentage of total fatty acids, and technological properties, such as fresh cheese yield and protein recovery, using Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectral data. Our main hypothesis was that Bayesian models that can estimate shrinkage and perform variable selection may improve our ability to predict FA traits and technological traits above and beyond what can be achieved using the current calibration models (e.g., partial least squares, PLS). To this end, we assessed a series of Bayesian methods and compared their prediction performance with that of PLS. The comparison between models was done using the same sets of data (i.e., same samples, same variability, same spectral treatment) for each trait. Data consisted of 1,264 individual milk samples collected from Brown Swiss cows for which gas chromatographic FA composition, milk coagulation properties, and cheese-yield traits were available. For each sample, 2 spectra in the infrared region from 5,011 to 925 cm−1 were available and averaged before data analysis. Three Bayesian models: Bayesian ridge regression (Bayes RR), Bayes A, and Bayes B, and 2 reference models: PLS and modified PLS (MPLS) procedures, were used to calibrate equations for each of the traits. The Bayesian models used were implemented in the R package BGLR (http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/BGLR/index.html), whereas the PLS and MPLS were those implemented in the WinISI II software (Infrasoft International LLC, State College, PA). Prediction accuracy was estimated for each trait and model using 25 replicates of a training-testing validation procedure. Compared with PLS, which is currently the most widely used calibration method, MPLS and the 3 Bayesian methods showed significantly greater prediction accuracy. Accuracy increased in moving from calibration to external validation methods, and in moving from PLS and MPLS to Bayesian methods, particularly Bayes A and Bayes B. The maximum R2 value of validation was obtained with Bayes B and Bayes A. For the FA, C10:0 (% of each FA on total FA basis) had the highest R2 (0.75, achieved with Bayes A and Bayes B), and among the technological traits, fresh cheese yield R2 of 0.82 (achieved with Bayes B). These 2 methods have proven to be useful instruments in shrinking and selecting very informative wavelengths and inferring the structure and functions of the analyzed traits. We conclude that Bayesian models are powerful tools for deriving calibration equations, and, importantly, these equations can be easily developed using existing open-source software. As part of our study, we provide scripts based on the open source R software BGLR, which can be used to train customized prediction equations for other traits or populations. PMID:26387015

Basics of Bayesian methods.

PubMed

Ghosh, Sujit K

2010-01-01

Bayesian methods are rapidly becoming popular tools for making statistical inference in various fields of science including biology, engineering, finance, and genetics. One of the key aspects of Bayesian inferential method is its logical foundation that provides a coherent framework to utilize not only empirical but also scientific information available to a researcher. Prior knowledge arising from scientific background, expert judgment, or previously collected data is used to build a prior distribution which is then combined with current data via the likelihood function to characterize the current state of knowledge using the so-called posterior distribution. Bayesian methods allow the use of models of complex physical phenomena that were previously too difficult to estimate (e.g., using asymptotic approximations). Bayesian methods offer a means of more fully understanding issues that are central to many practical problems by allowing researchers to build integrated models based on hierarchical conditional distributions that can be estimated even with limited amounts of data. Furthermore, advances in numerical integration methods, particularly those based on Monte Carlo methods, have made it possible to compute the optimal Bayes estimators. However, there is a reasonably wide gap between the background of the empirically trained scientists and the full weight of Bayesian statistical inference. Hence, one of the goals of this chapter is to bridge the gap by offering elementary to advanced concepts that emphasize linkages between standard approaches and full probability modeling via Bayesian methods.

Climatic Models Ensemble-based Mid-21st Century Runoff Projections: A Bayesian Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achieng, K. O.; Zhu, J.

2017-12-01

There are a number of North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climatic models that have been used to project surface runoff in the mid-21st century. Statistical model selection techniques are often used to select the model that best fits data. However, model selection techniques often lead to different conclusions. In this study, ten models are averaged in Bayesian paradigm to project runoff. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is used to project and identify effect of model uncertainty on future runoff projections. Baseflow separation - a two-digital filter which is also called Eckhardt filter - is used to separate USGS streamflow (total runoff) into two components: baseflow and surface runoff. We use this surface runoff as the a priori runoff when conducting BMA of runoff simulated from the ten RCM models. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate how well RCM multi-model ensembles simulate surface runoff, in a Bayesian framework. Specifically, we investigate and discuss the following questions: How well do ten RCM models ensemble jointly simulate surface runoff by averaging over all the models using BMA, given a priori surface runoff? What are the effects of model uncertainty on surface runoff simulation?

Bayesian inference of the lung alveolar spatial model for the identification of alveolar mechanics associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christley, Scott; Emr, Bryanna; Ghosh, Auyon; Satalin, Josh; Gatto, Louis; Vodovotz, Yoram; Nieman, Gary F.; An, Gary

2013-06-01

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is acute lung failure secondary to severe systemic inflammation, resulting in a derangement of alveolar mechanics (i.e. the dynamic change in alveolar size and shape during tidal ventilation), leading to alveolar instability that can cause further damage to the pulmonary parenchyma. Mechanical ventilation is a mainstay in the treatment of ARDS, but may induce mechano-physical stresses on unstable alveoli, which can paradoxically propagate the cellular and molecular processes exacerbating ARDS pathology. This phenomenon is called ventilator induced lung injury (VILI), and plays a significant role in morbidity and mortality associated with ARDS. In order to identify optimal ventilation strategies to limit VILI and treat ARDS, it is necessary to understand the complex interplay between biological and physical mechanisms of VILI, first at the alveolar level, and then in aggregate at the whole-lung level. Since there is no current consensus about the underlying dynamics of alveolar mechanics, as an initial step we investigate the ventilatory dynamics of an alveolar sac (AS) with the lung alveolar spatial model (LASM), a 3D spatial biomechanical representation of the AS and its interaction with airflow pressure and the surface tension effects of pulmonary surfactant. We use the LASM to identify the mechanical ramifications of alveolar dynamics associated with ARDS. Using graphical processing unit parallel algorithms, we perform Bayesian inference on the model parameters using experimental data from rat lung under control and Tween-induced ARDS conditions. Our results provide two plausible models that recapitulate two fundamental hypotheses about volume change at the alveolar level: (1) increase in alveolar size through isotropic volume change, or (2) minimal change in AS radius with primary expansion of the mouth of the AS, with the implication that the majority of change in lung volume during the respiratory cycle occurs in the alveolar ducts. These two model solutions correspond to significantly different mechanical properties of the tissue, and we discuss the implications of these different properties and the requirements for new experimental data to discriminate between the hypotheses.

Sequential Inverse Problems Bayesian Principles and the Logistic Map Example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Lian; Farmer, Chris L.; Moroz, Irene M.

2010-09-01

Bayesian statistics provides a general framework for solving inverse problems, but is not without interpretation and implementation problems. This paper discusses difficulties arising from the fact that forward models are always in error to some extent. Using a simple example based on the one-dimensional logistic map, we argue that, when implementation problems are minimal, the Bayesian framework is quite adequate. In this paper the Bayesian Filter is shown to be able to recover excellent state estimates in the perfect model scenario (PMS) and to distinguish the PMS from the imperfect model scenario (IMS). Through a quantitative comparison of the way in which the observations are assimilated in both the PMS and the IMS scenarios, we suggest that one can, sometimes, measure the degree of imperfection.

Bayesian state space models for dynamic genetic network construction across multiple tissues.

PubMed

Liang, Yulan; Kelemen, Arpad

2016-08-01

Construction of gene-gene interaction networks and potential pathways is a challenging and important problem in genomic research for complex diseases while estimating the dynamic changes of the temporal correlations and non-stationarity are the keys in this process. In this paper, we develop dynamic state space models with hierarchical Bayesian settings to tackle this challenge for inferring the dynamic profiles and genetic networks associated with disease treatments. We treat both the stochastic transition matrix and the observation matrix time-variant and include temporal correlation structures in the covariance matrix estimations in the multivariate Bayesian state space models. The unevenly spaced short time courses with unseen time points are treated as hidden state variables. Hierarchical Bayesian approaches with various prior and hyper-prior models with Monte Carlo Markov Chain and Gibbs sampling algorithms are used to estimate the model parameters and the hidden state variables. We apply the proposed Hierarchical Bayesian state space models to multiple tissues (liver, skeletal muscle, and kidney) Affymetrix time course data sets following corticosteroid (CS) drug administration. Both simulation and real data analysis results show that the genomic changes over time and gene-gene interaction in response to CS treatment can be well captured by the proposed models. The proposed dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian state space modeling approaches could be expanded and applied to other large scale genomic data, such as next generation sequence (NGS) combined with real time and time varying electronic health record (EHR) for more comprehensive and robust systematic and network based analysis in order to transform big biomedical data into predictions and diagnostics for precision medicine and personalized healthcare with better decision making and patient outcomes.

A comparison of machine learning and Bayesian modelling for molecular serotyping.

PubMed

Newton, Richard; Wernisch, Lorenz

2017-08-11

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a human pathogen that is a major cause of infant mortality. Identifying the pneumococcal serotype is an important step in monitoring the impact of vaccines used to protect against disease. Genomic microarrays provide an effective method for molecular serotyping. Previously we developed an empirical Bayesian model for the classification of serotypes from a molecular serotyping array. With only few samples available, a model driven approach was the only option. In the meanwhile, several thousand samples have been made available to us, providing an opportunity to investigate serotype classification by machine learning methods, which could complement the Bayesian model. We compare the performance of the original Bayesian model with two machine learning algorithms: Gradient Boosting Machines and Random Forests. We present our results as an example of a generic strategy whereby a preliminary probabilistic model is complemented or replaced by a machine learning classifier once enough data are available. Despite the availability of thousands of serotyping arrays, a problem encountered when applying machine learning methods is the lack of training data containing mixtures of serotypes; due to the large number of possible combinations. Most of the available training data comprises samples with only a single serotype. To overcome the lack of training data we implemented an iterative analysis, creating artificial training data of serotype mixtures by combining raw data from single serotype arrays. With the enhanced training set the machine learning algorithms out perform the original Bayesian model. However, for serotypes currently lacking sufficient training data the best performing implementation was a combination of the results of the Bayesian Model and the Gradient Boosting Machine. As well as being an effective method for classifying biological data, machine learning can also be used as an efficient method for revealing subtle biological insights, which we illustrate with an example.

Local backbone structure prediction of proteins

PubMed Central

De Brevern, Alexandre G.; Benros, Cristina; Gautier, Romain; Valadié, Hélène; Hazout, Serge; Etchebest, Catherine

2004-01-01

Summary A statistical analysis of the PDB structures has led us to define a new set of small 3D structural prototypes called Protein Blocks (PBs). This structural alphabet includes 16 PBs, each one is defined by the (φ, Ψ) dihedral angles of 5 consecutive residues. The amino acid distributions observed in sequence windows encompassing these PBs are used to predict by a Bayesian approach the local 3D structure of proteins from the sole knowledge of their sequences. LocPred is a software which allows the users to submit a protein sequence and performs a prediction in terms of PBs. The prediction results are given both textually and graphically. PMID:15724288

Number-Knower Levels in Young Children: Insights from Bayesian Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Michael D.; Sarnecka, Barbara W.

2011-01-01

Lee and Sarnecka (2010) developed a Bayesian model of young children's behavior on the Give-N test of number knowledge. This paper presents two new extensions of the model, and applies the model to new data. In the first extension, the model is used to evaluate competing theories about the conceptual knowledge underlying children's behavior. One,…

Theory-based Bayesian Models of Inductive Inference

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-07-19

Subjective randomness and natural scene statistics. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review . http://cocosci.berkeley.edu/tom/papers/randscenes.pdf Page 1...in press). Exemplar models as a mechanism for performing Bayesian inference. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review . http://cocosci.berkeley.edu/tom

Modeling Error Distributions of Growth Curve Models through Bayesian Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Zhiyong

2016-01-01

Growth curve models are widely used in social and behavioral sciences. However, typical growth curve models often assume that the errors are normally distributed although non-normal data may be even more common than normal data. In order to avoid possible statistical inference problems in blindly assuming normality, a general Bayesian framework is…

Bayesian Semiparametric Structural Equation Models with Latent Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Mingan; Dunson, David B.

2010-01-01

Structural equation models (SEMs) with latent variables are widely useful for sparse covariance structure modeling and for inferring relationships among latent variables. Bayesian SEMs are appealing in allowing for the incorporation of prior information and in providing exact posterior distributions of unknowns, including the latent variables. In…

Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Student Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaser, Tanja; Klingler, Severin; Schwing, Alexander G.; Gross, Markus

2017-01-01

Intelligent tutoring systems adapt the curriculum to the needs of the individual student. Therefore, an accurate representation and prediction of student knowledge is essential. Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) is a popular approach for student modeling. The structure of BKT models, however, makes it impossible to represent the hierarchy and…

Integration of Geophysical Data into Structural Geological Modelling through Bayesian Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de la Varga, Miguel; Wellmann, Florian; Murdie, Ruth

2016-04-01

Structural geological models are widely used to represent the spatial distribution of relevant geological features. Several techniques exist to construct these models on the basis of different assumptions and different types of geological observations (e.g. Jessell et al., 2014). However, two problems are prevalent when constructing models: (i) observations and assumptions, and therefore also the constructed model, are subject to uncertainties, and (ii) additional information, such as geophysical data, is often available, but cannot be considered directly in the geological modelling step. In our work, we propose the integration of all available data into a Bayesian network including the generation of the implicit geological method by means of interpolation functions (Mallet, 1992; Lajaunie et al., 1997; Mallet, 2004; Carr et al., 2001; Hillier et al., 2014). As a result, we are able to increase the certainty of the resultant models as well as potentially learn features of our regional geology through data mining and information theory techniques. MCMC methods are used in order to optimize computational time and assure the validity of the results. Here, we apply the aforementioned concepts in a 3-D model of the Sandstone Greenstone Belt in the Archean Yilgarn Craton in Western Australia. The example given, defines the uncertainty in the thickness of greenstone as limited by Bouguer anomaly and the internal structure of the greenstone as limited by the magnetic signature of a banded iron formation. The incorporation of the additional data and specially the gravity provides an important reduction of the possible outcomes and therefore the overall uncertainty. References Carr, C. J., K. R. Beatson, B. J. Cherrie, J. T. Mitchell, R. W. Fright, C. B. McCallum, and R. T. Evans, 2001, Reconstruction and representation of 3D objects with radial basis functions: Proceedings of the 28th annual conference on Computer graphics and interactive techniques, 67-76. Jessell, M., Aillères, L., de Kemp, E., Lindsay, M., Wellmann, F., Hillier, M., ... & Martin, R. (2014). Next Generation Three-Dimensional Geologic Modeling and Inversion. Lajaunie, C., G. Courrioux, and L. Manuel, 1997, Foliation fields and 3D cartography in geology: Principles of a method based on potential interpolation: Mathematical Geology, 29, 571-584. Mallet, J.-L., 1992, Discrete smooth interpolation in geometric modelling: Computer-Aided Design, 24, 178-191 Mallet, L. J., 2004, Space-time mathematical framework for sedimentary geology: Mathematical Geology, 36, 1-32.

The display of molecular models with the Ames Interactive Modeling System (AIMS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Egan, J. T.; Hart, J.; Burt, S. K.; Macelroy, R. D.

1982-01-01

A visualization of molecular models can lead to a clearer understanding of the models. Sophisticated graphics devices supported by minicomputers make it possible for the chemist to interact with the display of a very large model, altering its structure. In addition to user interaction, the need arises also for other ways of displaying information. These include the production of viewgraphs, film presentation, as well as publication quality prints of various models. To satisfy these needs, the display capability of the Ames Interactive Modeling System (AIMS) has been enhanced to provide a wide range of graphics and plotting capabilities. Attention is given to an overview of the AIMS system, graphics hardware used by the AIMS display subsystem, a comparison of graphics hardware, the representation of molecular models, graphics software used by the AIMS display subsystem, the display of a model obtained from data stored in molecule data base, a graphics feature for obtaining single frame permanent copy displays, and a feature for producing multiple frame displays.

Using Bayesian analysis in repeated preclinical in vivo studies for a more effective use of animals.

PubMed

Walley, Rosalind; Sherington, John; Rastrick, Joe; Detrait, Eric; Hanon, Etienne; Watt, Gillian

2016-05-01

Whilst innovative Bayesian approaches are increasingly used in clinical studies, in the preclinical area Bayesian methods appear to be rarely used in the reporting of pharmacology data. This is particularly surprising in the context of regularly repeated in vivo studies where there is a considerable amount of data from historical control groups, which has potential value. This paper describes our experience with introducing Bayesian analysis for such studies using a Bayesian meta-analytic predictive approach. This leads naturally either to an informative prior for a control group as part of a full Bayesian analysis of the next study or using a predictive distribution to replace a control group entirely. We use quality control charts to illustrate study-to-study variation to the scientists and describe informative priors in terms of their approximate effective numbers of animals. We describe two case studies of animal models: the lipopolysaccharide-induced cytokine release model used in inflammation and the novel object recognition model used to screen cognitive enhancers, both of which show the advantage of a Bayesian approach over the standard frequentist analysis. We conclude that using Bayesian methods in stable repeated in vivo studies can result in a more effective use of animals, either by reducing the total number of animals used or by increasing the precision of key treatment differences. This will lead to clearer results and supports the "3Rs initiative" to Refine, Reduce and Replace animals in research. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Computational statistics using the Bayesian Inference Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weinberg, Martin D.

2013-09-01

This paper introduces the Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE), a general parallel, optimized software package for parameter inference and model selection. This package is motivated by the analysis needs of modern astronomical surveys and the need to organize and reuse expensive derived data. The BIE is the first platform for computational statistics designed explicitly to enable Bayesian update and model comparison for astronomical problems. Bayesian update is based on the representation of high-dimensional posterior distributions using metric-ball-tree based kernel density estimation. Among its algorithmic offerings, the BIE emphasizes hybrid tempered Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes that robustly sample multimodal posterior distributions in high-dimensional parameter spaces. Moreover, the BIE implements a full persistence or serialization system that stores the full byte-level image of the running inference and previously characterized posterior distributions for later use. Two new algorithms to compute the marginal likelihood from the posterior distribution, developed for and implemented in the BIE, enable model comparison for complex models and data sets. Finally, the BIE was designed to be a collaborative platform for applying Bayesian methodology to astronomy. It includes an extensible object-oriented and easily extended framework that implements every aspect of the Bayesian inference. By providing a variety of statistical algorithms for all phases of the inference problem, a scientist may explore a variety of approaches with a single model and data implementation. Additional technical details and download details are available from http://www.astro.umass.edu/bie. The BIE is distributed under the GNU General Public License.

Parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo - bridging the gap to high-performance Bayesian computation in animal breeding and genetics.

PubMed

Wu, Xiao-Lin; Sun, Chuanyu; Beissinger, Timothy M; Rosa, Guilherme Jm; Weigel, Kent A; Gatti, Natalia de Leon; Gianola, Daniel

2012-09-25

Most Bayesian models for the analysis of complex traits are not analytically tractable and inferences are based on computationally intensive techniques. This is true of Bayesian models for genome-enabled selection, which uses whole-genome molecular data to predict the genetic merit of candidate animals for breeding purposes. In this regard, parallel computing can overcome the bottlenecks that can arise from series computing. Hence, a major goal of the present study is to bridge the gap to high-performance Bayesian computation in the context of animal breeding and genetics. Parallel Monte Carlo Markov chain algorithms and strategies are described in the context of animal breeding and genetics. Parallel Monte Carlo algorithms are introduced as a starting point including their applications to computing single-parameter and certain multiple-parameter models. Then, two basic approaches for parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo are described: one aims at parallelization within a single chain; the other is based on running multiple chains, yet some variants are discussed as well. Features and strategies of the parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo are illustrated using real data, including a large beef cattle dataset with 50K SNP genotypes. Parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are useful for computing complex Bayesian models, which does not only lead to a dramatic speedup in computing but can also be used to optimize model parameters in complex Bayesian models. Hence, we anticipate that use of parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo will have a profound impact on revolutionizing the computational tools for genomic selection programs.

Parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo - bridging the gap to high-performance Bayesian computation in animal breeding and genetics

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Most Bayesian models for the analysis of complex traits are not analytically tractable and inferences are based on computationally intensive techniques. This is true of Bayesian models for genome-enabled selection, which uses whole-genome molecular data to predict the genetic merit of candidate animals for breeding purposes. In this regard, parallel computing can overcome the bottlenecks that can arise from series computing. Hence, a major goal of the present study is to bridge the gap to high-performance Bayesian computation in the context of animal breeding and genetics. Results Parallel Monte Carlo Markov chain algorithms and strategies are described in the context of animal breeding and genetics. Parallel Monte Carlo algorithms are introduced as a starting point including their applications to computing single-parameter and certain multiple-parameter models. Then, two basic approaches for parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo are described: one aims at parallelization within a single chain; the other is based on running multiple chains, yet some variants are discussed as well. Features and strategies of the parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo are illustrated using real data, including a large beef cattle dataset with 50K SNP genotypes. Conclusions Parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are useful for computing complex Bayesian models, which does not only lead to a dramatic speedup in computing but can also be used to optimize model parameters in complex Bayesian models. Hence, we anticipate that use of parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo will have a profound impact on revolutionizing the computational tools for genomic selection programs. PMID:23009363

Teaching "Instant Experience" with Graphical Model Validation Techniques

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ekstrøm, Claus Thorn

2014-01-01

Graphical model validation techniques for linear normal models are often used to check the assumptions underlying a statistical model. We describe an approach to provide "instant experience" in looking at a graphical model validation plot, so it becomes easier to validate if any of the underlying assumptions are violated.

Bayesian survival analysis in clinical trials: What methods are used in practice?

PubMed

Brard, Caroline; Le Teuff, Gwénaël; Le Deley, Marie-Cécile; Hampson, Lisa V

2017-02-01

Background Bayesian statistics are an appealing alternative to the traditional frequentist approach to designing, analysing, and reporting of clinical trials, especially in rare diseases. Time-to-event endpoints are widely used in many medical fields. There are additional complexities to designing Bayesian survival trials which arise from the need to specify a model for the survival distribution. The objective of this article was to critically review the use and reporting of Bayesian methods in survival trials. Methods A systematic review of clinical trials using Bayesian survival analyses was performed through PubMed and Web of Science databases. This was complemented by a full text search of the online repositories of pre-selected journals. Cost-effectiveness, dose-finding studies, meta-analyses, and methodological papers using clinical trials were excluded. Results In total, 28 articles met the inclusion criteria, 25 were original reports of clinical trials and 3 were re-analyses of a clinical trial. Most trials were in oncology (n = 25), were randomised controlled (n = 21) phase III trials (n = 13), and half considered a rare disease (n = 13). Bayesian approaches were used for monitoring in 14 trials and for the final analysis only in 14 trials. In the latter case, Bayesian survival analyses were used for the primary analysis in four cases, for the secondary analysis in seven cases, and for the trial re-analysis in three cases. Overall, 12 articles reported fitting Bayesian regression models (semi-parametric, n = 3; parametric, n = 9). Prior distributions were often incompletely reported: 20 articles did not define the prior distribution used for the parameter of interest. Over half of the trials used only non-informative priors for monitoring and the final analysis (n = 12) when it was specified. Indeed, no articles fitting Bayesian regression models placed informative priors on the parameter of interest. The prior for the treatment effect was based on historical data in only four trials. Decision rules were pre-defined in eight cases when trials used Bayesian monitoring, and in only one case when trials adopted a Bayesian approach to the final analysis. Conclusion Few trials implemented a Bayesian survival analysis and few incorporated external data into priors. There is scope to improve the quality of reporting of Bayesian methods in survival trials. Extension of the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials statement for reporting Bayesian clinical trials is recommended.

A Bayesian estimation of a stochastic predator-prey model of economic fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dibeh, Ghassan; Luchinsky, Dmitry G.; Luchinskaya, Daria D.; Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.

2007-06-01

In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework for the empirical estimation of the parameters of one of the best known nonlinear models of the business cycle: The Marx-inspired model of a growth cycle introduced by R. M. Goodwin. The model predicts a series of closed cycles representing the dynamics of labor's share and the employment rate in the capitalist economy. The Bayesian framework is used to empirically estimate a modified Goodwin model. The original model is extended in two ways. First, we allow for exogenous periodic variations of the otherwise steady growth rates of the labor force and productivity per worker. Second, we allow for stochastic variations of those parameters. The resultant modified Goodwin model is a stochastic predator-prey model with periodic forcing. The model is then estimated using a newly developed Bayesian estimation method on data sets representing growth cycles in France and Italy during the years 1960-2005. Results show that inference of the parameters of the stochastic Goodwin model can be achieved. The comparison of the dynamics of the Goodwin model with the inferred values of parameters demonstrates quantitative agreement with the growth cycle empirical data.

GRAPHICS MANAGER (GFXMGR): An interactive graphics software program for the Advanced Electronics Design (AED) graphics controller, Model 767

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Faculjak, D.A.

1988-03-01

Graphics Manager (GFXMGR) is menu-driven, user-friendly software designed to interactively create, edit, and delete graphics displays on the Advanced Electronics Design (AED) graphics controller, Model 767. The software runs on the VAX family of computers and has been used successfully in security applications to create and change site layouts (maps) of specific facilities. GFXMGR greatly benefits graphics development by minimizing display-development time, reducing tedium on the part of the user, and improving system performance. It is anticipated that GFXMGR can be used to create graphics displays for many types of applications. 8 figs., 2 tabs.

A Bayesian Approach for Analyzing Longitudinal Structural Equation Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Song, Xin-Yuan; Lu, Zhao-Hua; Hser, Yih-Ing; Lee, Sik-Yum

2011-01-01

This article considers a Bayesian approach for analyzing a longitudinal 2-level nonlinear structural equation model with covariates, and mixed continuous and ordered categorical variables. The first-level model is formulated for measures taken at each time point nested within individuals for investigating their characteristics that are dynamically…

Model Diagnostics for Bayesian Networks. Research Report. ETS RR-04-17

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sinharay, Sandip

2004-01-01

Assessing fit of psychometric models has always been an issue of enormous interest, but there exists no unanimously agreed upon item fit diagnostic for the models. Bayesian networks, frequently used in educational assessments (see, for example, Mislevy, Almond, Yan, & Steinberg, 2001) primarily for learning about students' knowledge and…

Bayesian Unimodal Density Regression for Causal Inference

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karabatsos, George; Walker, Stephen G.

2011-01-01

Karabatsos and Walker (2011) introduced a new Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) regression model. Through analyses of real and simulated data, they showed that the BNP regression model outperforms other parametric and nonparametric regression models of common use, in terms of predictive accuracy of the outcome (dependent) variable. The other,…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ng, B

This survey gives an overview of popular generative models used in the modeling of stochastic temporal systems. In particular, this survey is organized into two parts. The first part discusses the discrete-time representations of dynamic Bayesian networks and dynamic relational probabilistic models, while the second part discusses the continuous-time representation of continuous-time Bayesian networks.

Bayesian Estimation of the DINA Model with Gibbs Sampling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Culpepper, Steven Andrew

2015-01-01

A Bayesian model formulation of the deterministic inputs, noisy "and" gate (DINA) model is presented. Gibbs sampling is employed to simulate from the joint posterior distribution of item guessing and slipping parameters, subject attribute parameters, and latent class probabilities. The procedure extends concepts in Béguin and Glas,…

User's instructions for the GE cardiovascular model to simulate LBNP and tilt experiments, with graphic capabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

The present form of this cardiovascular model simulates both 1-g and zero-g LBNP (lower body negative pressure) experiments and tilt experiments. In addition, the model simulates LBNP experiments at any body angle. The model is currently accessible on the Univac 1110 Time-Shared System in an interactive operational mode. Model output may be in tabular form and/or graphic form. The graphic capabilities are programmed for the Tektronix 4010 graphics terminal and the Univac 1110.

Semisupervised learning using Bayesian interpretation: application to LS-SVM.

PubMed

Adankon, Mathias M; Cheriet, Mohamed; Biem, Alain

2011-04-01

Bayesian reasoning provides an ideal basis for representing and manipulating uncertain knowledge, with the result that many interesting algorithms in machine learning are based on Bayesian inference. In this paper, we use the Bayesian approach with one and two levels of inference to model the semisupervised learning problem and give its application to the successful kernel classifier support vector machine (SVM) and its variant least-squares SVM (LS-SVM). Taking advantage of Bayesian interpretation of LS-SVM, we develop a semisupervised learning algorithm for Bayesian LS-SVM using our approach based on two levels of inference. Experimental results on both artificial and real pattern recognition problems show the utility of our method.

Use of Bayesian Inference in Crystallographic Structure Refinement via Full Diffraction Profile Analysis

PubMed Central

Fancher, Chris M.; Han, Zhen; Levin, Igor; Page, Katharine; Reich, Brian J.; Smith, Ralph C.; Wilson, Alyson G.; Jones, Jacob L.

2016-01-01

A Bayesian inference method for refining crystallographic structures is presented. The distribution of model parameters is stochastically sampled using Markov chain Monte Carlo. Posterior probability distributions are constructed for all model parameters to properly quantify uncertainty by appropriately modeling the heteroskedasticity and correlation of the error structure. The proposed method is demonstrated by analyzing a National Institute of Standards and Technology silicon standard reference material. The results obtained by Bayesian inference are compared with those determined by Rietveld refinement. Posterior probability distributions of model parameters provide both estimates and uncertainties. The new method better estimates the true uncertainties in the model as compared to the Rietveld method. PMID:27550221

Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management.

Treesearch

J.B. Nyberg; B.G. Marcot; R. Sulyma

2006-01-01

Bayesian belief and decision networks are relatively new modeling methods that are especially well suited to adaptive-management applications, but they appear not to have been widely used in adaptive management to date. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can serve many purposes for practioners of adaptive management, from illustrating system relations conceptually to...

Bayesian hierarchical model of ceftriaxone resistance proportions among Salmonella serotype Heidelberg infections.

PubMed

Gu, Weidong; Medalla, Felicita; Hoekstra, Robert M

2018-02-01

The National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System (NARMS) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tracks resistance among Salmonella infections. The annual number of Salmonella isolates of a particular serotype from states may be small, making direct estimation of resistance proportions unreliable. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to improve estimation by borrowing strength from relevant sampling units. We illustrate the models with different specifications of spatio-temporal interaction using 2004-2013 NARMS data for ceftriaxone-resistant Salmonella serotype Heidelberg. Our results show that Bayesian estimates of resistance proportions were smoother than observed values, and the difference between predicted and observed proportions was inversely related to the number of submitted isolates. The model with interaction allowed for tracking of annual changes in resistance proportions at the state level. We demonstrated that Bayesian hierarchical models provide a useful tool to examine spatio-temporal patterns of small sample size such as those found in NARMS. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Bayesian generalized least squares regression with application to log Pearson type 3 regional skew estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reis, D. S.; Stedinger, J. R.; Martins, E. S.

2005-10-01

This paper develops a Bayesian approach to analysis of a generalized least squares (GLS) regression model for regional analyses of hydrologic data. The new approach allows computation of the posterior distributions of the parameters and the model error variance using a quasi-analytic approach. Two regional skew estimation studies illustrate the value of the Bayesian GLS approach for regional statistical analysis of a shape parameter and demonstrate that regional skew models can be relatively precise with effective record lengths in excess of 60 years. With Bayesian GLS the marginal posterior distribution of the model error variance and the corresponding mean and variance of the parameters can be computed directly, thereby providing a simple but important extension of the regional GLS regression procedures popularized by Tasker and Stedinger (1989), which is sensitive to the likely values of the model error variance when it is small relative to the sampling error in the at-site estimator.

Accelerating Fibre Orientation Estimation from Diffusion Weighted Magnetic Resonance Imaging Using GPUs

PubMed Central

Hernández, Moisés; Guerrero, Ginés D.; Cecilia, José M.; García, José M.; Inuggi, Alberto; Jbabdi, Saad; Behrens, Timothy E. J.; Sotiropoulos, Stamatios N.

2013-01-01

With the performance of central processing units (CPUs) having effectively reached a limit, parallel processing offers an alternative for applications with high computational demands. Modern graphics processing units (GPUs) are massively parallel processors that can execute simultaneously thousands of light-weight processes. In this study, we propose and implement a parallel GPU-based design of a popular method that is used for the analysis of brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). More specifically, we are concerned with a model-based approach for extracting tissue structural information from diffusion-weighted (DW) MRI data. DW-MRI offers, through tractography approaches, the only way to study brain structural connectivity, non-invasively and in-vivo. We parallelise the Bayesian inference framework for the ball & stick model, as it is implemented in the tractography toolbox of the popular FSL software package (University of Oxford). For our implementation, we utilise the Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) programming model. We show that the parameter estimation, performed through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), is accelerated by at least two orders of magnitude, when comparing a single GPU with the respective sequential single-core CPU version. We also illustrate similar speed-up factors (up to 120x) when comparing a multi-GPU with a multi-CPU implementation. PMID:23658616

Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for multispecies conservation planning and monitoring

Treesearch

Carlos Carroll; Devin S. Johnson; Jeffrey R. Dunk; William J. Zielinski

2010-01-01

Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data’s spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and...

Variational Bayesian identification and prediction of stochastic nonlinear dynamic causal models.

PubMed

Daunizeau, J; Friston, K J; Kiebel, S J

2009-11-01

In this paper, we describe a general variational Bayesian approach for approximate inference on nonlinear stochastic dynamic models. This scheme extends established approximate inference on hidden-states to cover: (i) nonlinear evolution and observation functions, (ii) unknown parameters and (precision) hyperparameters and (iii) model comparison and prediction under uncertainty. Model identification or inversion entails the estimation of the marginal likelihood or evidence of a model. This difficult integration problem can be finessed by optimising a free-energy bound on the evidence using results from variational calculus. This yields a deterministic update scheme that optimises an approximation to the posterior density on the unknown model variables. We derive such a variational Bayesian scheme in the context of nonlinear stochastic dynamic hierarchical models, for both model identification and time-series prediction. The computational complexity of the scheme is comparable to that of an extended Kalman filter, which is critical when inverting high dimensional models or long time-series. Using Monte-Carlo simulations, we assess the estimation efficiency of this variational Bayesian approach using three stochastic variants of chaotic dynamic systems. We also demonstrate the model comparison capabilities of the method, its self-consistency and its predictive power.

Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for multispecies conservation planning and monitoring.

PubMed

Carroll, Carlos; Johnson, Devin S; Dunk, Jeffrey R; Zielinski, William J

2010-12-01

Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data's spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and invertebrate taxa of conservation concern (Church's sideband snails [Monadenia churchi], red tree voles [Arborimus longicaudus], and Pacific fishers [Martes pennanti pacifica]) that provide examples of a range of distributional extents and dispersal abilities. We used presence-absence data derived from regional monitoring programs to develop models with both landscape and site-level environmental covariates. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and a conditional autoregressive or intrinsic conditional autoregressive model framework to fit spatial models. The fit of Bayesian spatial models was between 35 and 55% better than the fit of nonspatial analogue models. Bayesian spatial models outperformed analogous models developed with maximum entropy (Maxent) methods. Although the best spatial and nonspatial models included similar environmental variables, spatial models provided estimates of residual spatial effects that suggested how ecological processes might structure distribution patterns. Spatial models built from presence-absence data improved fit most for localized endemic species with ranges constrained by poorly known biogeographic factors and for widely distributed species suspected to be strongly affected by unmeasured environmental variables or population processes. By treating spatial effects as a variable of interest rather than a nuisance, hierarchical Bayesian spatial models, especially when they are based on a common broad-scale spatial lattice (here the national Forest Inventory and Analysis grid of 24 km(2) hexagons), can increase the relevance of habitat models to multispecies conservation planning. Journal compilation © 2010 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original US government works.

Using Bayesian Stable Isotope Mixing Models to Enhance Marine Ecosystem Models

EPA Science Inventory

The use of stable isotopes in food web studies has proven to be a valuable tool for ecologists. We investigated the use of Bayesian stable isotope mixing models as constraints for an ecosystem model of a temperate seagrass system on the Atlantic coast of France. δ13C and δ15N i...

Effect of Bayesian Student Modeling on Academic Achievement in Foreign Language Teaching (University Level English Preparatory School Example)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aslan, Burak Galip; Öztürk, Özlem; Inceoglu, Mustafa Murat

2014-01-01

Considering the increasing importance of adaptive approaches in CALL systems, this study implemented a machine learning based student modeling middleware with Bayesian networks. The profiling approach of the student modeling system is based on Felder and Silverman's Learning Styles Model and Felder and Soloman's Index of Learning Styles…

Competing risk models in reliability systems, a weibull distribution model with bayesian analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iskandar, Ismed; Satria Gondokaryono, Yudi

2016-02-01

In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range between the true value and the maximum likelihood estimated value lines.

Bayesian Factor Analysis as a Variable Selection Problem: Alternative Priors and Consequences

PubMed Central

Lu, Zhao-Hua; Chow, Sy-Miin; Loken, Eric

2016-01-01

Factor analysis is a popular statistical technique for multivariate data analysis. Developments in the structural equation modeling framework have enabled the use of hybrid confirmatory/exploratory approaches in which factor loading structures can be explored relatively flexibly within a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) framework. Recently, a Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) approach (Muthén & Asparouhov, 2012) has been proposed as a way to explore the presence of cross-loadings in CFA models. We show that the issue of determining factor loading patterns may be formulated as a Bayesian variable selection problem in which Muthén and Asparouhov’s approach can be regarded as a BSEM approach with ridge regression prior (BSEM-RP). We propose another Bayesian approach, denoted herein as the Bayesian structural equation modeling with spike and slab prior (BSEM-SSP), which serves as a one-stage alternative to the BSEM-RP. We review the theoretical advantages and disadvantages of both approaches and compare their empirical performance relative to two modification indices-based approaches and exploratory factor analysis with target rotation. A teacher stress scale data set (Byrne, 2012; Pettegrew & Wolf, 1982) is used to demonstrate our approach. PMID:27314566

Bayesian Inference and Online Learning in Poisson Neuronal Networks.

PubMed

Huang, Yanping; Rao, Rajesh P N

2016-08-01

Motivated by the growing evidence for Bayesian computation in the brain, we show how a two-layer recurrent network of Poisson neurons can perform both approximate Bayesian inference and learning for any hidden Markov model. The lower-layer sensory neurons receive noisy measurements of hidden world states. The higher-layer neurons infer a posterior distribution over world states via Bayesian inference from inputs generated by sensory neurons. We demonstrate how such a neuronal network with synaptic plasticity can implement a form of Bayesian inference similar to Monte Carlo methods such as particle filtering. Each spike in a higher-layer neuron represents a sample of a particular hidden world state. The spiking activity across the neural population approximates the posterior distribution over hidden states. In this model, variability in spiking is regarded not as a nuisance but as an integral feature that provides the variability necessary for sampling during inference. We demonstrate how the network can learn the likelihood model, as well as the transition probabilities underlying the dynamics, using a Hebbian learning rule. We present results illustrating the ability of the network to perform inference and learning for arbitrary hidden Markov models.

Impact assessment of extreme storm events using a Bayesian network

USGS Publications Warehouse

den Heijer, C.(Kees); Knipping, Dirk T.J.A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; van Thiel de Vries, Jaap S. M.; Baart, Fedor; van Gelder, Pieter H. A. J. M.

2012-01-01

This paper describes an investigation on the usefulness of Bayesian Networks in the safety assessment of dune coasts. A network has been created that predicts the erosion volume based on hydraulic boundary conditions and a number of cross-shore profile indicators. Field measurement data along a large part of the Dutch coast has been used to train the network. Corresponding storm impact on the dunes was calculated with an empirical dune erosion model named duros+. Comparison between the Bayesian Network predictions and the original duros+ results, here considered as observations, results in a skill up to 0.88, provided that the training data covers the range of predictions. Hence, the predictions from a deterministic model (duros+) can be captured in a probabilistic model (Bayesian Network) such that both the process knowledge and uncertainties can be included in impact and vulnerability assessments.

BAYESIAN METHODS FOR REGIONAL-SCALE EUTROPHICATION MODELS. (R830887)

EPA Science Inventory

We demonstrate a Bayesian classification and regression tree (CART) approach to link multiple environmental stressors to biological responses and quantify uncertainty in model predictions. Such an approach can: (1) report prediction uncertainty, (2) be consistent with the amou...

Bayesian stable isotope mixing models

EPA Science Inventory

In this paper we review recent advances in Stable Isotope Mixing Models (SIMMs) and place them into an over-arching Bayesian statistical framework which allows for several useful extensions. SIMMs are used to quantify the proportional contributions of various sources to a mixtur...

Bayesian conditional-independence modeling of the AIDS epidemic in England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilks, Walter R.; De Angelis, Daniela; Day, Nicholas E.

We describe the use of conditional-independence modeling, Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo, to model and project the HIV-AIDS epidemic in homosexual/bisexual males in England and Wales. Complexity in this analysis arises through selectively missing data, indirectly observed underlying processes, and measurement error. Our emphasis is on presentation and discussion of the concepts, not on the technicalities of this analysis, which can be found elsewhere [D. De Angelis, W.R. Gilks, N.E. Day, Bayesian projection of the the acquired immune deficiency syndrome epidemic (with discussion), Applied Statistics, in press].

Bayesian estimation of seasonal course of canopy leaf area index from hyperspectral satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varvia, Petri; Rautiainen, Miina; Seppänen, Aku

2018-03-01

In this paper, Bayesian inversion of a physically-based forest reflectance model is investigated to estimate of boreal forest canopy leaf area index (LAI) from EO-1 Hyperion hyperspectral data. The data consist of multiple forest stands with different species compositions and structures, imaged in three phases of the growing season. The Bayesian estimates of canopy LAI are compared to reference estimates based on a spectral vegetation index. The forest reflectance model contains also other unknown variables in addition to LAI, for example leaf single scattering albedo and understory reflectance. In the Bayesian approach, these variables are estimated simultaneously with LAI. The feasibility and seasonal variation of these estimates is also examined. Credible intervals for the estimates are also calculated and evaluated. The results show that the Bayesian inversion approach is significantly better than using a comparable spectral vegetation index regression.

A Program of Continuing Research on Representing, Manipulating, and Reasoning about Physical Objects

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-09-30

graphics with the goal of automatically converting complex graphics models into forms more appropriate for radiosity computation. 2.4 Least Constraint We...to computer graphics with the goal of automatically 7 converting complex graphics models into forms more appropriate for radiosity com- putation. 8 4

Building Regression Models: The Importance of Graphics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dunn, Richard

1989-01-01

Points out reasons for using graphical methods to teach simple and multiple regression analysis. Argues that a graphically oriented approach has considerable pedagogic advantages in the exposition of simple and multiple regression. Shows that graphical methods may play a central role in the process of building regression models. (Author/LS)

Engineering Graphics Educational Outcomes for the Global Engineer: An Update

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barr, R. E.

2012-01-01

This paper discusses the formulation of educational outcomes for engineering graphics that span the global enterprise. Results of two repeated faculty surveys indicate that new computer graphics tools and techniques are now the preferred mode of engineering graphical communication. Specifically, 3-D computer modeling, assembly modeling, and model…

Using a web-based application to define the accuracy of diagnostic tests when the gold standard is imperfect.

PubMed

Lim, Cherry; Wannapinij, Prapass; White, Lisa; Day, Nicholas P J; Cooper, Ben S; Peacock, Sharon J; Limmathurotsakul, Direk

2013-01-01

Estimates of the sensitivity and specificity for new diagnostic tests based on evaluation against a known gold standard are imprecise when the accuracy of the gold standard is imperfect. Bayesian latent class models (LCMs) can be helpful under these circumstances, but the necessary analysis requires expertise in computational programming. Here, we describe open-access web-based applications that allow non-experts to apply Bayesian LCMs to their own data sets via a user-friendly interface. Applications for Bayesian LCMs were constructed on a web server using R and WinBUGS programs. The models provided (http://mice.tropmedres.ac) include two Bayesian LCMs: the two-tests in two-population model (Hui and Walter model) and the three-tests in one-population model (Walter and Irwig model). Both models are available with simplified and advanced interfaces. In the former, all settings for Bayesian statistics are fixed as defaults. Users input their data set into a table provided on the webpage. Disease prevalence and accuracy of diagnostic tests are then estimated using the Bayesian LCM, and provided on the web page within a few minutes. With the advanced interfaces, experienced researchers can modify all settings in the models as needed. These settings include correlation among diagnostic test results and prior distributions for all unknown parameters. The web pages provide worked examples with both models using the original data sets presented by Hui and Walter in 1980, and by Walter and Irwig in 1988. We also illustrate the utility of the advanced interface using the Walter and Irwig model on a data set from a recent melioidosis study. The results obtained from the web-based applications were comparable to those published previously. The newly developed web-based applications are open-access and provide an important new resource for researchers worldwide to evaluate new diagnostic tests.

Precise Network Modeling of Systems Genetics Data Using the Bayesian Network Webserver.

PubMed

Ziebarth, Jesse D; Cui, Yan

2017-01-01

The Bayesian Network Webserver (BNW, http://compbio.uthsc.edu/BNW ) is an integrated platform for Bayesian network modeling of biological datasets. It provides a web-based network modeling environment that seamlessly integrates advanced algorithms for probabilistic causal modeling and reasoning with Bayesian networks. BNW is designed for precise modeling of relatively small networks that contain less than 20 nodes. The structure learning algorithms used by BNW guarantee the discovery of the best (most probable) network structure given the data. To facilitate network modeling across multiple biological levels, BNW provides a very flexible interface that allows users to assign network nodes into different tiers and define the relationships between and within the tiers. This function is particularly useful for modeling systems genetics datasets that often consist of multiscalar heterogeneous genotype-to-phenotype data. BNW enables users to, within seconds or minutes, go from having a simply formatted input file containing a dataset to using a network model to make predictions about the interactions between variables and the potential effects of experimental interventions. In this chapter, we will introduce the functions of BNW and show how to model systems genetics datasets with BNW.

Fragment virtual screening based on Bayesian categorization for discovering novel VEGFR-2 scaffolds.

PubMed

Zhang, Yanmin; Jiao, Yu; Xiong, Xiao; Liu, Haichun; Ran, Ting; Xu, Jinxing; Lu, Shuai; Xu, Anyang; Pan, Jing; Qiao, Xin; Shi, Zhihao; Lu, Tao; Chen, Yadong

2015-11-01

The discovery of novel scaffolds against a specific target has long been one of the most significant but challengeable goals in discovering lead compounds. A scaffold that binds in important regions of the active pocket is more favorable as a starting point because scaffolds generally possess greater optimization possibilities. However, due to the lack of sufficient chemical space diversity of the databases and the ineffectiveness of the screening methods, it still remains a great challenge to discover novel active scaffolds. Since the strengths and weaknesses of both fragment-based drug design and traditional virtual screening (VS), we proposed a fragment VS concept based on Bayesian categorization for the discovery of novel scaffolds. This work investigated the proposal through an application on VEGFR-2 target. Firstly, scaffold and structural diversity of chemical space for 10 compound databases were explicitly evaluated. Simultaneously, a robust Bayesian classification model was constructed for screening not only compound databases but also their corresponding fragment databases. Although analysis of the scaffold diversity demonstrated a very unevenly distribution of scaffolds over molecules, results showed that our Bayesian model behaved better in screening fragments than molecules. Through a literature retrospective research, several generated fragments with relatively high Bayesian scores indeed exhibit VEGFR-2 biological activity, which strongly proved the effectiveness of fragment VS based on Bayesian categorization models. This investigation of Bayesian-based fragment VS can further emphasize the necessity for enrichment of compound databases employed in lead discovery by amplifying the diversity of databases with novel structures.

Efficient Bayesian hierarchical functional data analysis with basis function approximations using Gaussian-Wishart processes.

PubMed

Yang, Jingjing; Cox, Dennis D; Lee, Jong Soo; Ren, Peng; Choi, Taeryon

2017-12-01

Functional data are defined as realizations of random functions (mostly smooth functions) varying over a continuum, which are usually collected on discretized grids with measurement errors. In order to accurately smooth noisy functional observations and deal with the issue of high-dimensional observation grids, we propose a novel Bayesian method based on the Bayesian hierarchical model with a Gaussian-Wishart process prior and basis function representations. We first derive an induced model for the basis-function coefficients of the functional data, and then use this model to conduct posterior inference through Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Compared to the standard Bayesian inference that suffers serious computational burden and instability in analyzing high-dimensional functional data, our method greatly improves the computational scalability and stability, while inheriting the advantage of simultaneously smoothing raw observations and estimating the mean-covariance functions in a nonparametric way. In addition, our method can naturally handle functional data observed on random or uncommon grids. Simulation and real studies demonstrate that our method produces similar results to those obtainable by the standard Bayesian inference with low-dimensional common grids, while efficiently smoothing and estimating functional data with random and high-dimensional observation grids when the standard Bayesian inference fails. In conclusion, our method can efficiently smooth and estimate high-dimensional functional data, providing one way to resolve the curse of dimensionality for Bayesian functional data analysis with Gaussian-Wishart processes. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Investigating different approaches to develop informative priors in hierarchical Bayesian safety performance functions.

PubMed

Yu, Rongjie; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

2013-07-01

The Bayesian inference method has been frequently adopted to develop safety performance functions. One advantage of the Bayesian inference is that prior information for the independent variables can be included in the inference procedures. However, there are few studies that discussed how to formulate informative priors for the independent variables and evaluated the effects of incorporating informative priors in developing safety performance functions. This paper addresses this deficiency by introducing four approaches of developing informative priors for the independent variables based on historical data and expert experience. Merits of these informative priors have been tested along with two types of Bayesian hierarchical models (Poisson-gamma and Poisson-lognormal models). Deviance information criterion (DIC), R-square values, and coefficients of variance for the estimations were utilized as evaluation measures to select the best model(s). Comparison across the models indicated that the Poisson-gamma model is superior with a better model fit and it is much more robust with the informative priors. Moreover, the two-stage Bayesian updating informative priors provided the best goodness-of-fit and coefficient estimation accuracies. Furthermore, informative priors for the inverse dispersion parameter have also been introduced and tested. Different types of informative priors' effects on the model estimations and goodness-of-fit have been compared and concluded. Finally, based on the results, recommendations for future research topics and study applications have been made. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian design criteria: computation, comparison, and application to a pharmacokinetic and a pharmacodynamic model.

PubMed

Merlé, Y; Mentré, F

1995-02-01

In this paper 3 criteria to design experiments for Bayesian estimation of the parameters of nonlinear models with respect to their parameters, when a prior distribution is available, are presented: the determinant of the Bayesian information matrix, the determinant of the pre-posterior covariance matrix, and the expected information provided by an experiment. A procedure to simplify the computation of these criteria is proposed in the case of continuous prior distributions and is compared with the criterion obtained from a linearization of the model about the mean of the prior distribution for the parameters. This procedure is applied to two models commonly encountered in the area of pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics: the one-compartment open model with bolus intravenous single-dose injection and the Emax model. They both involve two parameters. Additive as well as multiplicative gaussian measurement errors are considered with normal prior distributions. Various combinations of the variances of the prior distribution and of the measurement error are studied. Our attention is restricted to designs with limited numbers of measurements (1 or 2 measurements). This situation often occurs in practice when Bayesian estimation is performed. The optimal Bayesian designs that result vary with the variances of the parameter distribution and with the measurement error. The two-point optimal designs sometimes differ from the D-optimal designs for the mean of the prior distribution and may consist of replicating measurements. For the studied cases, the determinant of the Bayesian information matrix and its linearized form lead to the same optimal designs. In some cases, the pre-posterior covariance matrix can be far from its lower bound, namely, the inverse of the Bayesian information matrix, especially for the Emax model and a multiplicative measurement error. The expected information provided by the experiment and the determinant of the pre-posterior covariance matrix generally lead to the same designs except for the Emax model and the multiplicative measurement error. Results show that these criteria can be easily computed and that they could be incorporated in modules for designing experiments.

Expectation propagation for large scale Bayesian inference of non-linear molecular networks from perturbation data.

PubMed

Narimani, Zahra; Beigy, Hamid; Ahmad, Ashar; Masoudi-Nejad, Ali; Fröhlich, Holger

2017-01-01

Inferring the structure of molecular networks from time series protein or gene expression data provides valuable information about the complex biological processes of the cell. Causal network structure inference has been approached using different methods in the past. Most causal network inference techniques, such as Dynamic Bayesian Networks and ordinary differential equations, are limited by their computational complexity and thus make large scale inference infeasible. This is specifically true if a Bayesian framework is applied in order to deal with the unavoidable uncertainty about the correct model. We devise a novel Bayesian network reverse engineering approach using ordinary differential equations with the ability to include non-linearity. Besides modeling arbitrary, possibly combinatorial and time dependent perturbations with unknown targets, one of our main contributions is the use of Expectation Propagation, an algorithm for approximate Bayesian inference over large scale network structures in short computation time. We further explore the possibility of integrating prior knowledge into network inference. We evaluate the proposed model on DREAM4 and DREAM8 data and find it competitive against several state-of-the-art existing network inference methods.

Hierarchical Bayesian sparse image reconstruction with application to MRFM.

PubMed

Dobigeon, Nicolas; Hero, Alfred O; Tourneret, Jean-Yves

2009-09-01

This paper presents a hierarchical Bayesian model to reconstruct sparse images when the observations are obtained from linear transformations and corrupted by an additive white Gaussian noise. Our hierarchical Bayes model is well suited to such naturally sparse image applications as it seamlessly accounts for properties such as sparsity and positivity of the image via appropriate Bayes priors. We propose a prior that is based on a weighted mixture of a positive exponential distribution and a mass at zero. The prior has hyperparameters that are tuned automatically by marginalization over the hierarchical Bayesian model. To overcome the complexity of the posterior distribution, a Gibbs sampling strategy is proposed. The Gibbs samples can be used to estimate the image to be recovered, e.g., by maximizing the estimated posterior distribution. In our fully Bayesian approach, the posteriors of all the parameters are available. Thus, our algorithm provides more information than other previously proposed sparse reconstruction methods that only give a point estimate. The performance of the proposed hierarchical Bayesian sparse reconstruction method is illustrated on synthetic data and real data collected from a tobacco virus sample using a prototype MRFM instrument.

Reconstructing Constructivism: Causal Models, Bayesian Learning Mechanisms, and the Theory Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gopnik, Alison; Wellman, Henry M.

2012-01-01

We propose a new version of the "theory theory" grounded in the computational framework of probabilistic causal models and Bayesian learning. Probabilistic models allow a constructivist but rigorous and detailed approach to cognitive development. They also explain the learning of both more specific causal hypotheses and more abstract framework…

Bayesian Finite Mixtures for Nonlinear Modeling of Educational Data.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tirri, Henry; And Others

A Bayesian approach for finding latent classes in data is discussed. The approach uses finite mixture models to describe the underlying structure in the data and demonstrate that the possibility of using full joint probability models raises interesting new prospects for exploratory data analysis. The concepts and methods discussed are illustrated…

A Bayesian Multi-Level Factor Analytic Model of Consumer Price Sensitivities across Categories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duvvuri, Sri Devi; Gruca, Thomas S.

2010-01-01

Identifying price sensitive consumers is an important problem in marketing. We develop a Bayesian multi-level factor analytic model of the covariation among household-level price sensitivities across product categories that are substitutes. Based on a multivariate probit model of category incidence, this framework also allows the researcher to…

Small Sample Properties of Bayesian Multivariate Autoregressive Time Series Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Price, Larry R.

2012-01-01

The aim of this study was to compare the small sample (N = 1, 3, 5, 10, 15) performance of a Bayesian multivariate vector autoregressive (BVAR-SEM) time series model relative to frequentist power and parameter estimation bias. A multivariate autoregressive model was developed based on correlated autoregressive time series vectors of varying…

Application of Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filter in parameter calibration of groundwater flow model in PingTung Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, Shao-Yong; Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2017-04-01

Due to the limited hydrogeological observation data and high levels of uncertainty within, parameter estimation of the groundwater model has been an important issue. There are many methods of parameter estimation, for example, Kalman filter provides a real-time calibration of parameters through measurement of groundwater monitoring wells, related methods such as Extended Kalman Filter and Ensemble Kalman Filter are widely applied in groundwater research. However, Kalman Filter method is limited to linearity. This study propose a novel method, Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filtering, which provides a method that can considers the uncertainty of data in parameter estimation. With this two methods, we can estimate parameter by given hard data (certain) and soft data (uncertain) in the same time. In this study, we use Python and QGIS in groundwater model (MODFLOW) and development of Extended Kalman Filter and Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filtering in Python in parameter estimation. This method may provide a conventional filtering method and also consider the uncertainty of data. This study was conducted through numerical model experiment to explore, combine Bayesian maximum entropy filter and a hypothesis for the architecture of MODFLOW groundwater model numerical estimation. Through the virtual observation wells to simulate and observe the groundwater model periodically. The result showed that considering the uncertainty of data, the Bayesian maximum entropy filter will provide an ideal result of real-time parameters estimation.

Bayesian-MCMC-based parameter estimation of stealth aircraft RCS models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Wei; Dai, Xiao-Xia; Feng, Yuan

2015-12-01

When modeling a stealth aircraft with low RCS (Radar Cross Section), conventional parameter estimation methods may cause a deviation from the actual distribution, owing to the fact that the characteristic parameters are estimated via directly calculating the statistics of RCS. The Bayesian-Markov Chain Monte Carlo (Bayesian-MCMC) method is introduced herein to estimate the parameters so as to improve the fitting accuracies of fluctuation models. The parameter estimations of the lognormal and the Legendre polynomial models are reformulated in the Bayesian framework. The MCMC algorithm is then adopted to calculate the parameter estimates. Numerical results show that the distribution curves obtained by the proposed method exhibit improved consistence with the actual ones, compared with those fitted by the conventional method. The fitting accuracy could be improved by no less than 25% for both fluctuation models, which implies that the Bayesian-MCMC method might be a good candidate among the optimal parameter estimation methods for stealth aircraft RCS models. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 61101173), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 613206), the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2012AA01A308), the State Scholarship Fund by the China Scholarship Council (CSC), and the Oversea Academic Training Funds, and University of Electronic Science and Technology of China (UESTC).

Bayesian regression models outperform partial least squares methods for predicting milk components and technological properties using infrared spectral data.

PubMed

Ferragina, A; de los Campos, G; Vazquez, A I; Cecchinato, A; Bittante, G

2015-11-01

The aim of this study was to assess the performance of Bayesian models commonly used for genomic selection to predict "difficult-to-predict" dairy traits, such as milk fatty acid (FA) expressed as percentage of total fatty acids, and technological properties, such as fresh cheese yield and protein recovery, using Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectral data. Our main hypothesis was that Bayesian models that can estimate shrinkage and perform variable selection may improve our ability to predict FA traits and technological traits above and beyond what can be achieved using the current calibration models (e.g., partial least squares, PLS). To this end, we assessed a series of Bayesian methods and compared their prediction performance with that of PLS. The comparison between models was done using the same sets of data (i.e., same samples, same variability, same spectral treatment) for each trait. Data consisted of 1,264 individual milk samples collected from Brown Swiss cows for which gas chromatographic FA composition, milk coagulation properties, and cheese-yield traits were available. For each sample, 2 spectra in the infrared region from 5,011 to 925 cm(-1) were available and averaged before data analysis. Three Bayesian models: Bayesian ridge regression (Bayes RR), Bayes A, and Bayes B, and 2 reference models: PLS and modified PLS (MPLS) procedures, were used to calibrate equations for each of the traits. The Bayesian models used were implemented in the R package BGLR (http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/BGLR/index.html), whereas the PLS and MPLS were those implemented in the WinISI II software (Infrasoft International LLC, State College, PA). Prediction accuracy was estimated for each trait and model using 25 replicates of a training-testing validation procedure. Compared with PLS, which is currently the most widely used calibration method, MPLS and the 3 Bayesian methods showed significantly greater prediction accuracy. Accuracy increased in moving from calibration to external validation methods, and in moving from PLS and MPLS to Bayesian methods, particularly Bayes A and Bayes B. The maximum R(2) value of validation was obtained with Bayes B and Bayes A. For the FA, C10:0 (% of each FA on total FA basis) had the highest R(2) (0.75, achieved with Bayes A and Bayes B), and among the technological traits, fresh cheese yield R(2) of 0.82 (achieved with Bayes B). These 2 methods have proven to be useful instruments in shrinking and selecting very informative wavelengths and inferring the structure and functions of the analyzed traits. We conclude that Bayesian models are powerful tools for deriving calibration equations, and, importantly, these equations can be easily developed using existing open-source software. As part of our study, we provide scripts based on the open source R software BGLR, which can be used to train customized prediction equations for other traits or populations. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian stock assessment of Pacific herring in Prince William Sound, Alaska.

PubMed

Muradian, Melissa L; Branch, Trevor A; Moffitt, Steven D; Hulson, Peter-John F

2017-01-01

The Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) population in Prince William Sound, Alaska crashed in 1993 and has yet to recover, affecting food web dynamics in the Sound and impacting Alaskan communities. To help researchers design and implement the most effective monitoring, management, and recovery programs, a Bayesian assessment of Prince William Sound herring was developed by reformulating the current model used by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game. The Bayesian model estimated pre-fishery spawning biomass of herring age-3 and older in 2013 to be a median of 19,410 mt (95% credibility interval 12,150-31,740 mt), with a 54% probability that biomass in 2013 was below the management limit used to regulate fisheries in Prince William Sound. The main advantages of the Bayesian model are that it can more objectively weight different datasets and provide estimates of uncertainty for model parameters and outputs, unlike the weighted sum-of-squares used in the original model. In addition, the revised model could be used to manage herring stocks with a decision rule that considers both stock status and the uncertainty in stock status.

Bayesian stock assessment of Pacific herring in Prince William Sound, Alaska

PubMed Central

Moffitt, Steven D.; Hulson, Peter-John F.

2017-01-01

The Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) population in Prince William Sound, Alaska crashed in 1993 and has yet to recover, affecting food web dynamics in the Sound and impacting Alaskan communities. To help researchers design and implement the most effective monitoring, management, and recovery programs, a Bayesian assessment of Prince William Sound herring was developed by reformulating the current model used by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game. The Bayesian model estimated pre-fishery spawning biomass of herring age-3 and older in 2013 to be a median of 19,410 mt (95% credibility interval 12,150–31,740 mt), with a 54% probability that biomass in 2013 was below the management limit used to regulate fisheries in Prince William Sound. The main advantages of the Bayesian model are that it can more objectively weight different datasets and provide estimates of uncertainty for model parameters and outputs, unlike the weighted sum-of-squares used in the original model. In addition, the revised model could be used to manage herring stocks with a decision rule that considers both stock status and the uncertainty in stock status. PMID:28222151

Multilevel modeling of single-case data: A comparison of maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation.

PubMed

Moeyaert, Mariola; Rindskopf, David; Onghena, Patrick; Van den Noortgate, Wim

2017-12-01

The focus of this article is to describe Bayesian estimation, including construction of prior distributions, and to compare parameter recovery under the Bayesian framework (using weakly informative priors) and the maximum likelihood (ML) framework in the context of multilevel modeling of single-case experimental data. Bayesian estimation results were found similar to ML estimation results in terms of the treatment effect estimates, regardless of the functional form and degree of information included in the prior specification in the Bayesian framework. In terms of the variance component estimates, both the ML and Bayesian estimation procedures result in biased and less precise variance estimates when the number of participants is small (i.e., 3). By increasing the number of participants to 5 or 7, the relative bias is close to 5% and more precise estimates are obtained for all approaches, except for the inverse-Wishart prior using the identity matrix. When a more informative prior was added, more precise estimates for the fixed effects and random effects were obtained, even when only 3 participants were included. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

An approach to quantifying the efficiency of a Bayesian filter

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Data assimilation is defined as the Bayesian conditioning of uncertain model simulations on observations for the purpose of reducing uncertainty about model states. Practical data assimilation applications require that simplifying assumptions be made about the prior and posterior state distributions...

Efficient Probabilistic Diagnostics for Electrical Power Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengshoel, Ole J.; Chavira, Mark; Cascio, Keith; Poll, Scott; Darwiche, Adnan; Uckun, Serdar

2008-01-01

We consider in this work the probabilistic approach to model-based diagnosis when applied to electrical power systems (EPSs). Our probabilistic approach is formally well-founded, as it based on Bayesian networks and arithmetic circuits. We investigate the diagnostic task known as fault isolation, and pay special attention to meeting two of the main challenges . model development and real-time reasoning . often associated with real-world application of model-based diagnosis technologies. To address the challenge of model development, we develop a systematic approach to representing electrical power systems as Bayesian networks, supported by an easy-to-use speci.cation language. To address the real-time reasoning challenge, we compile Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits. Arithmetic circuit evaluation supports real-time diagnosis by being predictable and fast. In essence, we introduce a high-level EPS speci.cation language from which Bayesian networks that can diagnose multiple simultaneous failures are auto-generated, and we illustrate the feasibility of using arithmetic circuits, compiled from Bayesian networks, for real-time diagnosis on real-world EPSs of interest to NASA. The experimental system is a real-world EPS, namely the Advanced Diagnostic and Prognostic Testbed (ADAPT) located at the NASA Ames Research Center. In experiments with the ADAPT Bayesian network, which currently contains 503 discrete nodes and 579 edges, we .nd high diagnostic accuracy in scenarios where one to three faults, both in components and sensors, were inserted. The time taken to compute the most probable explanation using arithmetic circuits has a small mean of 0.2625 milliseconds and standard deviation of 0.2028 milliseconds. In experiments with data from ADAPT we also show that arithmetic circuit evaluation substantially outperforms joint tree propagation and variable elimination, two alternative algorithms for diagnosis using Bayesian network inference.

Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part I: Forward models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Holland, K. Todd

2011-01-01

Prediction of coastal processes, including waves, currents, and sediment transport, can be obtained from a variety of detailed geophysical-process models with many simulations showing significant skill. This capability supports a wide range of research and applied efforts that can benefit from accurate numerical predictions. However, the predictions are only as accurate as the data used to drive the models and, given the large temporal and spatial variability of the surf zone, inaccuracies in data are unavoidable such that useful predictions require corresponding estimates of uncertainty. We demonstrate how a Bayesian-network model can be used to provide accurate predictions of wave-height evolution in the surf zone given very sparse and/or inaccurate boundary-condition data. The approach is based on a formal treatment of a data-assimilation problem that takes advantage of significant reduction of the dimensionality of the model system. We demonstrate that predictions of a detailed geophysical model of the wave evolution are reproduced accurately using a Bayesian approach. In this surf-zone application, forward prediction skill was 83%, and uncertainties in the model inputs were accurately transferred to uncertainty in output variables. We also demonstrate that if modeling uncertainties were not conveyed to the Bayesian network (i.e., perfect data or model were assumed), then overly optimistic prediction uncertainties were computed. More consistent predictions and uncertainties were obtained by including model-parameter errors as a source of input uncertainty. Improved predictions (skill of 90%) were achieved because the Bayesian network simultaneously estimated optimal parameters while predicting wave heights.

Accuracy of dengue clinical diagnosis with and without NS1 antigen rapid test: Comparison between human and Bayesian network model decision.

PubMed

Sa-Ngamuang, Chaitawat; Haddawy, Peter; Luvira, Viravarn; Piyaphanee, Watcharapong; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Lawpoolsri, Saranath

2018-06-18

Differentiating dengue patients from other acute febrile illness patients is a great challenge among physicians. Several dengue diagnosis methods are recommended by WHO. The application of specific laboratory tests is still limited due to high cost, lack of equipment, and uncertain validity. Therefore, clinical diagnosis remains a common practice especially in resource limited settings. Bayesian networks have been shown to be a useful tool for diagnostic decision support. This study aimed to construct Bayesian network models using basic demographic, clinical, and laboratory profiles of acute febrile illness patients to diagnose dengue. Data of 397 acute undifferentiated febrile illness patients who visited the fever clinic of the Bangkok Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Thailand, were used for model construction and validation. The two best final models were selected: one with and one without NS1 rapid test result. The diagnostic accuracy of the models was compared with that of physicians on the same set of patients. The Bayesian network models provided good diagnostic accuracy of dengue infection, with ROC AUC of 0.80 and 0.75 for models with and without NS1 rapid test result, respectively. The models had approximately 80% specificity and 70% sensitivity, similar to the diagnostic accuracy of the hospital's fellows in infectious disease. Including information on NS1 rapid test improved the specificity, but reduced the sensitivity, both in model and physician diagnoses. The Bayesian network model developed in this study could be useful to assist physicians in diagnosing dengue, particularly in regions where experienced physicians and laboratory confirmation tests are limited.

Assimilating multi-source uncertainties of a parsimonious conceptual hydrological model using hierarchical Bayesian modeling

Treesearch

Wei Wu; James Clark; James Vose

2010-01-01

Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) modeling allows for multiple sources of uncertainty by factoring complex relationships into conditional distributions that can be used to draw inference and make predictions. We applied an HB model to estimate the parameters and state variables of a parsimonious hydrological model – GR4J – by coherently assimilating the uncertainties from the...

Incorporation of diet information derived from Bayesian stable isotope mixing models into mass-balanced marine ecosystem models: A case study from the Marennes-Oleron Estuary, France

EPA Science Inventory

We investigated the use of output from Bayesian stable isotope mixing models as constraints for a linear inverse food web model of a temperate intertidal seagrass system in the Marennes-Oléron Bay, France. Linear inverse modeling (LIM) is a technique that estimates a complete net...

Prediction of Individual Serum Infliximab Concentrations in Inflammatory Bowel Disease by a Bayesian Dashboard System.

PubMed

Eser, Alexander; Primas, Christian; Reinisch, Sieglinde; Vogelsang, Harald; Novacek, Gottfried; Mould, Diane R; Reinisch, Walter

2018-01-30

Despite a robust exposure-response relationship of infliximab in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), attempts to adjust dosing to individually predicted serum concentrations of infliximab (SICs) are lacking. Compared with labor-intensive conventional software for pharmacokinetic (PK) modeling (eg, NONMEM) dashboards are easy-to-use programs incorporating complex Bayesian statistics to determine individual pharmacokinetics. We evaluated various infliximab detection assays and the number of samples needed to precisely forecast individual SICs using a Bayesian dashboard. We assessed long-term infliximab retention in patients being dosed concordantly versus discordantly with Bayesian dashboard recommendations. Three hundred eighty-two serum samples from 117 adult IBD patients on infliximab maintenance therapy were analyzed by 3 commercially available assays. Data from each assay was modeled using NONMEM and a Bayesian dashboard. PK parameter precision and residual variability were assessed. Forecast concentrations from both systems were compared with observed concentrations. Infliximab retention was assessed by prediction for dose intensification via Bayesian dashboard versus real-life practice. Forecast precision of SICs varied between detection assays. At least 3 SICs from a reliable assay are needed for an accurate forecast. The Bayesian dashboard performed similarly to NONMEM to predict SICs. Patients dosed concordantly with Bayesian dashboard recommendations had a significantly longer median drug survival than those dosed discordantly (51.5 versus 4.6 months, P < .0001). The Bayesian dashboard helps to assess the diagnostic performance of infliximab detection assays. Three, not single, SICs provide sufficient information for individualized dose adjustment when incorporated into the Bayesian dashboard. Treatment adjusted to forecasted SICs is associated with longer drug retention of infliximab. © 2018, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

Spatial distribution of psychotic disorders in an urban area of France: an ecological study.

PubMed

Pignon, Baptiste; Schürhoff, Franck; Baudin, Grégoire; Ferchiou, Aziz; Richard, Jean-Romain; Saba, Ghassen; Leboyer, Marion; Kirkbride, James B; Szöke, Andrei

2016-05-18

Previous analyses of neighbourhood variations of non-affective psychotic disorders (NAPD) have focused mainly on incidence. However, prevalence studies provide important insights on factors associated with disease evolution as well as for healthcare resource allocation. This study aimed to investigate the distribution of prevalent NAPD cases in an urban area in France. The number of cases in each neighbourhood was modelled as a function of potential confounders and ecological variables, namely: migrant density, economic deprivation and social fragmentation. This was modelled using statistical models of increasing complexity: frequentist models (using Poisson and negative binomial regressions), and several Bayesian models. For each model, assumptions validity were checked and compared as to how this fitted to the data, in order to test for possible spatial variation in prevalence. Data showed significant overdispersion (invalidating the Poisson regression model) and residual autocorrelation (suggesting the need to use Bayesian models). The best Bayesian model was Leroux's model (i.e. a model with both strong correlation between neighbouring areas and weaker correlation between areas further apart), with economic deprivation as an explanatory variable (OR = 1.13, 95% CI [1.02-1.25]). In comparison with frequentist methods, the Bayesian model showed a better fit. The number of cases showed non-random spatial distribution and was linked to economic deprivation.

Model averaging, optimal inference, and habit formation

PubMed Central

FitzGerald, Thomas H. B.; Dolan, Raymond J.; Friston, Karl J.

2014-01-01

Postulating that the brain performs approximate Bayesian inference generates principled and empirically testable models of neuronal function—the subject of much current interest in neuroscience and related disciplines. Current formulations address inference and learning under some assumed and particular model. In reality, organisms are often faced with an additional challenge—that of determining which model or models of their environment are the best for guiding behavior. Bayesian model averaging—which says that an agent should weight the predictions of different models according to their evidence—provides a principled way to solve this problem. Importantly, because model evidence is determined by both the accuracy and complexity of the model, optimal inference requires that these be traded off against one another. This means an agent's behavior should show an equivalent balance. We hypothesize that Bayesian model averaging plays an important role in cognition, given that it is both optimal and realizable within a plausible neuronal architecture. We outline model averaging and how it might be implemented, and then explore a number of implications for brain and behavior. In particular, we propose that model averaging can explain a number of apparently suboptimal phenomena within the framework of approximate (bounded) Bayesian inference, focusing particularly upon the relationship between goal-directed and habitual behavior. PMID:25018724

Using SAS PROC MCMC for Item Response Theory Models

PubMed Central

Samonte, Kelli

2014-01-01

Interest in using Bayesian methods for estimating item response theory models has grown at a remarkable rate in recent years. This attentiveness to Bayesian estimation has also inspired a growth in available software such as WinBUGS, R packages, BMIRT, MPLUS, and SAS PROC MCMC. This article intends to provide an accessible overview of Bayesian methods in the context of item response theory to serve as a useful guide for practitioners in estimating and interpreting item response theory (IRT) models. Included is a description of the estimation procedure used by SAS PROC MCMC. Syntax is provided for estimation of both dichotomous and polytomous IRT models, as well as a discussion on how to extend the syntax to accommodate more complex IRT models. PMID:29795834

Application of Bayesian model averaging to measurements of the primordial power spectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkinson, David; Liddle, Andrew R.

2010-11-01

Cosmological parameter uncertainties are often stated assuming a particular model, neglecting the model uncertainty, even when Bayesian model selection is unable to identify a conclusive best model. Bayesian model averaging is a method for assessing parameter uncertainties in situations where there is also uncertainty in the underlying model. We apply model averaging to the estimation of the parameters associated with the primordial power spectra of curvature and tensor perturbations. We use CosmoNest and MultiNest to compute the model evidences and posteriors, using cosmic microwave data from WMAP, ACBAR, BOOMERanG, and CBI, plus large-scale structure data from the SDSS DR7. We find that the model-averaged 95% credible interval for the spectral index using all of the data is 0.940

Sparse Bayesian Learning for Identifying Imaging Biomarkers in AD Prediction

PubMed Central

Shen, Li; Qi, Yuan; Kim, Sungeun; Nho, Kwangsik; Wan, Jing; Risacher, Shannon L.; Saykin, Andrew J.

2010-01-01

We apply sparse Bayesian learning methods, automatic relevance determination (ARD) and predictive ARD (PARD), to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) classification to make accurate prediction and identify critical imaging markers relevant to AD at the same time. ARD is one of the most successful Bayesian feature selection methods. PARD is a powerful Bayesian feature selection method, and provides sparse models that is easy to interpret. PARD selects the model with the best estimate of the predictive performance instead of choosing the one with the largest marginal model likelihood. Comparative study with support vector machine (SVM) shows that ARD/PARD in general outperform SVM in terms of prediction accuracy. Additional comparison with surface-based general linear model (GLM) analysis shows that regions with strongest signals are identified by both GLM and ARD/PARD. While GLM P-map returns significant regions all over the cortex, ARD/PARD provide a small number of relevant and meaningful imaging markers with predictive power, including both cortical and subcortical measures. PMID:20879451

A conceptual model for site-level ecology of the giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) in the Sacramento Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halstead, Brian J.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Casazza, Michael L.; Hansen, Eric C.; Scherer, Rick D.; Patterson, Laura C.

2015-08-14

Bayesian networks further provide a clear visual display of the model that facilitates understanding among various stakeholders (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Empirical data and expert judgment can be combined, as continuous or categorical variables, to update knowledge about the system (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Importantly, Bayesian network models allow inference from causes to consequences, but also from consequences to causes, so that data can inform the states of nodes (values of different random variables) in either direction (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Because they can incorporate both decision nodes that represent management actions and utility nodes that quantify the costs and benefits of outcomes, Bayesian networks are ideally suited to risk analysis and adaptive management (Nyberg and others, 2006; Howes and others, 2010). Thus, Bayesian network models are useful in situations where empirical data are not available, such as questions concerning the responses of giant gartersnakes to management.

A Sparse Bayesian Approach for Forward-Looking Superresolution Radar Imaging

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yin; Zhang, Yongchao; Huang, Yulin; Yang, Jianyu

2017-01-01

This paper presents a sparse superresolution approach for high cross-range resolution imaging of forward-looking scanning radar based on the Bayesian criterion. First, a novel forward-looking signal model is established as the product of the measurement matrix and the cross-range target distribution, which is more accurate than the conventional convolution model. Then, based on the Bayesian criterion, the widely-used sparse regularization is considered as the penalty term to recover the target distribution. The derivation of the cost function is described, and finally, an iterative expression for minimizing this function is presented. Alternatively, this paper discusses how to estimate the single parameter of Gaussian noise. With the advantage of a more accurate model, the proposed sparse Bayesian approach enjoys a lower model error. Meanwhile, when compared with the conventional superresolution methods, the proposed approach shows high cross-range resolution and small location error. The superresolution results for the simulated point target, scene data, and real measured data are presented to demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed approach. PMID:28604583

Bayesian analysis of caustic-crossing microlensing events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassan, A.; Horne, K.; Kains, N.; Tsapras, Y.; Browne, P.

2010-06-01

Aims: Caustic-crossing binary-lens microlensing events are important anomalous events because they are capable of detecting an extrasolar planet companion orbiting the lens star. Fast and robust modelling methods are thus of prime interest in helping to decide whether a planet is detected by an event. Cassan introduced a new set of parameters to model binary-lens events, which are closely related to properties of the light curve. In this work, we explain how Bayesian priors can be added to this framework, and investigate on interesting options. Methods: We develop a mathematical formulation that allows us to compute analytically the priors on the new parameters, given some previous knowledge about other physical quantities. We explicitly compute the priors for a number of interesting cases, and show how this can be implemented in a fully Bayesian, Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Results: Using Bayesian priors can accelerate microlens fitting codes by reducing the time spent considering physically implausible models, and helps us to discriminate between alternative models based on the physical plausibility of their parameters.

Fast model updating coupling Bayesian inference and PGD model reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubio, Paul-Baptiste; Louf, François; Chamoin, Ludovic

2018-04-01

The paper focuses on a coupled Bayesian-Proper Generalized Decomposition (PGD) approach for the real-time identification and updating of numerical models. The purpose is to use the most general case of Bayesian inference theory in order to address inverse problems and to deal with different sources of uncertainties (measurement and model errors, stochastic parameters). In order to do so with a reasonable CPU cost, the idea is to replace the direct model called for Monte-Carlo sampling by a PGD reduced model, and in some cases directly compute the probability density functions from the obtained analytical formulation. This procedure is first applied to a welding control example with the updating of a deterministic parameter. In the second application, the identification of a stochastic parameter is studied through a glued assembly example.

Modelling the Flow Stress of Alloy 316L using a Multi-Layered Feed Forward Neural Network with Bayesian Regularization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abiriand Bhekisipho Twala, Olufunminiyi

2017-08-01

In this paper, a multilayer feedforward neural network with Bayesian regularization constitutive model is developed for alloy 316L during high strain rate and high temperature plastic deformation. The input variables are strain rate, temperature and strain while the output value is the flow stress of the material. The results show that the use of Bayesian regularized technique reduces the potential of overfitting and overtraining. The prediction quality of the model is thereby improved. The model predictions are in good agreement with experimental measurements. The measurement data used for the network training and model comparison were taken from relevant literature. The developed model is robust as it can be generalized to deformation conditions slightly below or above the training dataset.

Spatiotemporal Bayesian analysis of Lyme disease in New York state, 1990-2000.

PubMed

Chen, Haiyan; Stratton, Howard H; Caraco, Thomas B; White, Dennis J

2006-07-01

Mapping ordinarily increases our understanding of nontrivial spatial and temporal heterogeneities in disease rates. However, the large number of parameters required by the corresponding statistical models often complicates detailed analysis. This study investigates the feasibility of a fully Bayesian hierarchical regression approach to the problem and identifies how it outperforms two more popular methods: crude rate estimates (CRE) and empirical Bayes standardization (EBS). In particular, we apply a fully Bayesian approach to the spatiotemporal analysis of Lyme disease incidence in New York state for the period 1990-2000. These results are compared with those obtained by CRE and EBS in Chen et al. (2005). We show that the fully Bayesian regression model not only gives more reliable estimates of disease rates than the other two approaches but also allows for tractable models that can accommodate more numerous sources of variation and unknown parameters.

A Bayesian approach to tracking patients having changing pharmacokinetic parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bayard, David S.; Jelliffe, Roger W.

2004-01-01

This paper considers the updating of Bayesian posterior densities for pharmacokinetic models associated with patients having changing parameter values. For estimation purposes it is proposed to use the Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) estimation algorithm, which is currently a popular algorithm in the aerospace community for tracking maneuvering targets. The IMM algorithm is described, and compared to the multiple model (MM) and Maximum A-Posteriori (MAP) Bayesian estimation methods, which are presently used for posterior updating when pharmacokinetic parameters do not change. Both the MM and MAP Bayesian estimation methods are used in their sequential forms, to facilitate tracking of changing parameters. Results indicate that the IMM algorithm is well suited for tracking time-varying pharmacokinetic parameters in acutely ill and unstable patients, incurring only about half of the integrated error compared to the sequential MM and MAP methods on the same example.

K-ε Turbulence Model Parameter Estimates Using an Approximate Self-similar Jet-in-Crossflow Solution

DOE PAGES

DeChant, Lawrence; Ray, Jaideep; Lefantzi, Sophia; ...

2017-06-09

The k-ε turbulence model has been described as perhaps “the most widely used complete turbulence model.” This family of heuristic Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence closures is supported by a suite of model parameters that have been estimated by demanding the satisfaction of well-established canonical flows such as homogeneous shear flow, log-law behavior, etc. While this procedure does yield a set of so-called nominal parameters, it is abundantly clear that they do not provide a universally satisfactory turbulence model that is capable of simulating complex flows. Recent work on the Bayesian calibration of the k-ε model using jet-in-crossflow wind tunnelmore » data has yielded parameter estimates that are far more predictive than nominal parameter values. In this paper, we develop a self-similar asymptotic solution for axisymmetric jet-in-crossflow interactions and derive analytical estimates of the parameters that were inferred using Bayesian calibration. The self-similar method utilizes a near field approach to estimate the turbulence model parameters while retaining the classical far-field scaling to model flow field quantities. Our parameter values are seen to be far more predictive than the nominal values, as checked using RANS simulations and experimental measurements. They are also closer to the Bayesian estimates than the nominal parameters. A traditional simplified jet trajectory model is explicitly related to the turbulence model parameters and is shown to yield good agreement with measurement when utilizing the analytical derived turbulence model coefficients. Finally, the close agreement between the turbulence model coefficients obtained via Bayesian calibration and the analytically estimated coefficients derived in this paper is consistent with the contention that the Bayesian calibration approach is firmly rooted in the underlying physical description.« less

A Bayesian prediction model between a biomarker and the clinical endpoint for dichotomous variables.

PubMed

Jiang, Zhiwei; Song, Yang; Shou, Qiong; Xia, Jielai; Wang, William

2014-12-20

Early biomarkers are helpful for predicting clinical endpoints and for evaluating efficacy in clinical trials even if the biomarker cannot replace clinical outcome as a surrogate. The building and evaluation of an association model between biomarkers and clinical outcomes are two equally important concerns regarding the prediction of clinical outcome. This paper is to address both issues in a Bayesian framework. A Bayesian meta-analytic approach is proposed to build a prediction model between the biomarker and clinical endpoint for dichotomous variables. Compared with other Bayesian methods, the proposed model only requires trial-level summary data of historical trials in model building. By using extensive simulations, we evaluate the link function and the application condition of the proposed Bayesian model under scenario (i) equal positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) and (ii) higher NPV and lower PPV. In the simulations, the patient-level data is generated to evaluate the meta-analytic model. PPV and NPV are employed to describe the patient-level relationship between the biomarker and the clinical outcome. The minimum number of historical trials to be included in building the model is also considered. It is seen from the simulations that the logit link function performs better than the odds and cloglog functions under both scenarios. PPV/NPV ≥0.5 for equal PPV and NPV, and PPV + NPV ≥1 for higher NPV and lower PPV are proposed in order to predict clinical outcome accurately and precisely when the proposed model is considered. Twenty historical trials are required to be included in model building when PPV and NPV are equal. For unequal PPV and NPV, the minimum number of historical trials for model building is proposed to be five. A hypothetical example shows an application of the proposed model in global drug development. The proposed Bayesian model is able to predict well the clinical endpoint from the observed biomarker data for dichotomous variables as long as the conditions are satisfied. It could be applied in drug development. But the practical problems in applications have to be studied in further research.

Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks applied to ecological modeling and conservation.

Treesearch

B.G. Marcot; J.D. Steventon; G.D. Sutherland; R.K. McCann

2006-01-01

We provide practical guidelines for developing, testing, and revising Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). Primary steps in this process include creating influence diagrams of the hypothesized "causal web" of key factors affecting a species or ecological outcome of interest; developing a first, alpha-level BBN model from the influence diagram; revising the model...

A Bayesian network model for predicting aquatic toxicity mode of action using two dimensional theoretical molecular descriptors

EPA Science Inventory

The mode of toxic action (MoA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity, but development of predictive MoA classification models in aquatic toxicology has been limited. We developed a Bayesian network model to classify aquatic toxicity MoA using a recently pu...

An Improved Estimation Using Polya-Gamma Augmentation for Bayesian Structural Equation Models with Dichotomous Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Seohyun; Lu, Zhenqiu; Cohen, Allan S.

2018-01-01

Bayesian algorithms have been used successfully in the social and behavioral sciences to analyze dichotomous data particularly with complex structural equation models. In this study, we investigate the use of the Polya-Gamma data augmentation method with Gibbs sampling to improve estimation of structural equation models with dichotomous variables.…

Predicting Graduation Rates at 4-Year Broad Access Institutions Using a Bayesian Modeling Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crisp, Gloria; Doran, Erin; Salis Reyes, Nicole A.

2018-01-01

This study models graduation rates at 4-year broad access institutions (BAIs). We examine the student body, structural-demographic, and financial characteristics that best predict 6-year graduation rates across two time periods (2008-2009 and 2014-2015). A Bayesian model averaging approach is utilized to account for uncertainty in variable…

Python Environment for Bayesian Learning: Inferring the Structure of Bayesian Networks from Knowledge and Data

PubMed Central

Shah, Abhik; Woolf, Peter

2009-01-01

Summary In this paper, we introduce pebl, a Python library and application for learning Bayesian network structure from data and prior knowledge that provides features unmatched by alternative software packages: the ability to use interventional data, flexible specification of structural priors, modeling with hidden variables and exploitation of parallel processing. PMID:20161541

A Bayesian approach to landscape ecological risk assessment applied to the upper Grande Ronde watershed, Oregon

Treesearch

Kimberley K. Ayre; Wayne G. Landis

2012-01-01

We present a Bayesian network model based on the ecological risk assessment framework to evaluate potential impacts to habitats and resources resulting from wildfire, grazing, forest management activities, and insect outbreaks in a forested landscape in northeastern Oregon. The Bayesian network structure consisted of three tiers of nodes: landscape disturbances,...

Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) - Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2007: Annual Report

EPA Science Inventory

This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model generated (HBM) estimates of ozone (O₃) and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5 particles with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microns)concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2007 calen...

Application of Multiple Imputation for Missing Values in Three-Way Three-Mode Multi-Environment Trial Data

PubMed Central

Tian, Ting; McLachlan, Geoffrey J.; Dieters, Mark J.; Basford, Kaye E.

2015-01-01

It is a common occurrence in plant breeding programs to observe missing values in three-way three-mode multi-environment trial (MET) data. We proposed modifications of models for estimating missing observations for these data arrays, and developed a novel approach in terms of hierarchical clustering. Multiple imputation (MI) was used in four ways, multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering, normal distribution model, normal regression model, and predictive mean match. The later three models used both Bayesian analysis and non-Bayesian analysis, while the first approach used a clustering procedure with randomly selected attributes and assigned real values from the nearest neighbour to the one with missing observations. Different proportions of data entries in six complete datasets were randomly selected to be missing and the MI methods were compared based on the efficiency and accuracy of estimating those values. The results indicated that the models using Bayesian analysis had slightly higher accuracy of estimation performance than those using non-Bayesian analysis but they were more time-consuming. However, the novel approach of multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering demonstrated the overall best performances. PMID:26689369

Bayesian mixture modeling for blood sugar levels of diabetes mellitus patients (case study in RSUD Saiful Anwar Malang Indonesia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budi Astuti, Ani; Iriawan, Nur; Irhamah; Kuswanto, Heri; Sasiarini, Laksmi

2017-10-01

Bayesian statistics proposes an approach that is very flexible in the number of samples and distribution of data. Bayesian Mixture Model (BMM) is a Bayesian approach for multimodal models. Diabetes Mellitus (DM) is more commonly known in the Indonesian community as sweet pee. This disease is one type of chronic non-communicable diseases but it is very dangerous to humans because of the effects of other diseases complications caused. WHO reports in 2013 showed DM disease was ranked 6th in the world as the leading causes of human death. In Indonesia, DM disease continues to increase over time. These research would be studied patterns and would be built the BMM models of the DM data through simulation studies where the simulation data built on cases of blood sugar levels of DM patients in RSUD Saiful Anwar Malang. The results have been successfully demonstrated pattern of distribution of the DM data which has a normal mixture distribution. The BMM models have succeed to accommodate the real condition of the DM data based on the data driven concept.

Application of Multiple Imputation for Missing Values in Three-Way Three-Mode Multi-Environment Trial Data.

PubMed

Tian, Ting; McLachlan, Geoffrey J; Dieters, Mark J; Basford, Kaye E

2015-01-01

It is a common occurrence in plant breeding programs to observe missing values in three-way three-mode multi-environment trial (MET) data. We proposed modifications of models for estimating missing observations for these data arrays, and developed a novel approach in terms of hierarchical clustering. Multiple imputation (MI) was used in four ways, multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering, normal distribution model, normal regression model, and predictive mean match. The later three models used both Bayesian analysis and non-Bayesian analysis, while the first approach used a clustering procedure with randomly selected attributes and assigned real values from the nearest neighbour to the one with missing observations. Different proportions of data entries in six complete datasets were randomly selected to be missing and the MI methods were compared based on the efficiency and accuracy of estimating those values. The results indicated that the models using Bayesian analysis had slightly higher accuracy of estimation performance than those using non-Bayesian analysis but they were more time-consuming. However, the novel approach of multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering demonstrated the overall best performances.

Bayesian modelling of the emission spectrum of the Joint European Torus Lithium Beam Emission Spectroscopy system.

PubMed

Kwak, Sehyun; Svensson, J; Brix, M; Ghim, Y-C

2016-02-01

A Bayesian model of the emission spectrum of the JET lithium beam has been developed to infer the intensity of the Li I (2p-2s) line radiation and associated uncertainties. The detected spectrum for each channel of the lithium beam emission spectroscopy system is here modelled by a single Li line modified by an instrumental function, Bremsstrahlung background, instrumental offset, and interference filter curve. Both the instrumental function and the interference filter curve are modelled with non-parametric Gaussian processes. All free parameters of the model, the intensities of the Li line, Bremsstrahlung background, and instrumental offset, are inferred using Bayesian probability theory with a Gaussian likelihood for photon statistics and electronic background noise. The prior distributions of the free parameters are chosen as Gaussians. Given these assumptions, the intensity of the Li line and corresponding uncertainties are analytically available using a Bayesian linear inversion technique. The proposed approach makes it possible to extract the intensity of Li line without doing a separate background subtraction through modulation of the Li beam.

Developing Large-Scale Bayesian Networks by Composition: Fault Diagnosis of Electrical Power Systems in Aircraft and Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengshoel, Ole Jakob; Poll, Scott; Kurtoglu, Tolga

2009-01-01

This CD contains files that support the talk (see CASI ID 20100021404). There are 24 models that relate to the ADAPT system and 1 Excel worksheet. In the paper an investigation into the use of Bayesian networks to construct large-scale diagnostic systems is described. The high-level specifications, Bayesian networks, clique trees, and arithmetic circuits representing 24 different electrical power systems are described in the talk. The data in the CD are the models of the 24 different power systems.

Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

PubMed Central

Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.; Piatek, Rémi

2014-01-01

This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates from a high dimensional set of psychological measurements. PMID:25431517

Bayesian Decision Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berliner, M.

2017-12-01

Bayesian statistical decision theory offers a natural framework for decision-policy making in the presence of uncertainty. Key advantages of the approach include efficient incorporation of information and observations. However, in complicated settings it is very difficult, perhaps essentially impossible, to formalize the mathematical inputs needed in the approach. Nevertheless, using the approach as a template is useful for decision support; that is, organizing and communicating our analyses. Bayesian hierarchical modeling is valuable in quantifying and managing uncertainty such cases. I review some aspects of the idea emphasizing statistical model development and use in the context of sea-level rise.

Bayesian calibration for forensic age estimation.

PubMed

Ferrante, Luigi; Skrami, Edlira; Gesuita, Rosaria; Cameriere, Roberto

2015-05-10

Forensic medicine is increasingly called upon to assess the age of individuals. Forensic age estimation is mostly required in relation to illegal immigration and identification of bodies or skeletal remains. A variety of age estimation methods are based on dental samples and use of regression models, where the age of an individual is predicted by morphological tooth changes that take place over time. From the medico-legal point of view, regression models, with age as the dependent random variable entail that age tends to be overestimated in the young and underestimated in the old. To overcome this bias, we describe a new full Bayesian calibration method (asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration) for forensic age estimation that uses asymmetric Laplace distribution as the probability model. The method was compared with three existing approaches (two Bayesian and a classical method) using simulated data. Although its accuracy was comparable with that of the other methods, the asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration appears to be significantly more reliable and robust in case of misspecification of the probability model. The proposed method was also applied to a real dataset of values of the pulp chamber of the right lower premolar measured on x-ray scans of individuals of known age. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Causal inference in biology networks with integrated belief propagation.

PubMed

Chang, Rui; Karr, Jonathan R; Schadt, Eric E

2015-01-01

Inferring causal relationships among molecular and higher order phenotypes is a critical step in elucidating the complexity of living systems. Here we propose a novel method for inferring causality that is no longer constrained by the conditional dependency arguments that limit the ability of statistical causal inference methods to resolve causal relationships within sets of graphical models that are Markov equivalent. Our method utilizes Bayesian belief propagation to infer the responses of perturbation events on molecular traits given a hypothesized graph structure. A distance measure between the inferred response distribution and the observed data is defined to assess the 'fitness' of the hypothesized causal relationships. To test our algorithm, we infer causal relationships within equivalence classes of gene networks in which the form of the functional interactions that are possible are assumed to be nonlinear, given synthetic microarray and RNA sequencing data. We also apply our method to infer causality in real metabolic network with v-structure and feedback loop. We show that our method can recapitulate the causal structure and recover the feedback loop only from steady-state data which conventional method cannot.

Teaching Real Business Cycles to Undergraduates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brevik, Frode; Gartner, Manfred

2007-01-01

The authors review the graphical approach to teaching the real business cycle model introduced in Barro. They then look at where this approach cuts corners and suggest refinements. Finally, they compare graphical and exact models by means of impulse-response functions. The graphical models yield reliable qualitative results. Sizable quantitative…

Graphics modelling of non-contact thickness measuring robotics work cell

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Warren, Charles W.

1990-01-01

A system was developed for measuring, in real time, the thickness of a sprayable insulation during its application. The system was graphically modelled, off-line, using a state-of-the-art graphics workstation and associated software. This model was to contain a 3D color model of a workcell containing a robot and an air bearing turntable. A communication link was established between the graphics workstations and the robot's controller. Sequences of robot motion generated by the computer simulation are transmitted to the robot for execution.

Bayesian Model Averaging of Artificial Intelligence Models for Hydraulic Conductivity Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadiri, A.; Chitsazan, N.; Tsai, F. T.; Asghari Moghaddam, A.

2012-12-01

This research presents a Bayesian artificial intelligence model averaging (BAIMA) method that incorporates multiple artificial intelligence (AI) models to estimate hydraulic conductivity and evaluate estimation uncertainties. Uncertainty in the AI model outputs stems from error in model input as well as non-uniqueness in selecting different AI methods. Using one single AI model tends to bias the estimation and underestimate uncertainty. BAIMA employs Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique to address the issue of using one single AI model for estimation. BAIMA estimates hydraulic conductivity by averaging the outputs of AI models according to their model weights. In this study, the model weights were determined using the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) that follows the parsimony principle. BAIMA calculates the within-model variances to account for uncertainty propagation from input data to AI model output. Between-model variances are evaluated to account for uncertainty due to model non-uniqueness. We employed Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy logic (TS-FL), artificial neural network (ANN) and neurofuzzy (NF) to estimate hydraulic conductivity for the Tasuj plain aquifer, Iran. BAIMA combined three AI models and produced better fitting than individual models. While NF was expected to be the best AI model owing to its utilization of both TS-FL and ANN models, the NF model is nearly discarded by the parsimony principle. The TS-FL model and the ANN model showed equal importance although their hydraulic conductivity estimates were quite different. This resulted in significant between-model variances that are normally ignored by using one AI model.

Bayesian randomized clinical trials: From fixed to adaptive design.

PubMed

Yin, Guosheng; Lam, Chi Kin; Shi, Haolun

2017-08-01

Randomized controlled studies are the gold standard for phase III clinical trials. Using α-spending functions to control the overall type I error rate, group sequential methods are well established and have been dominating phase III studies. Bayesian randomized design, on the other hand, can be viewed as a complement instead of competitive approach to the frequentist methods. For the fixed Bayesian design, the hypothesis testing can be cast in the posterior probability or Bayes factor framework, which has a direct link to the frequentist type I error rate. Bayesian group sequential design relies upon Bayesian decision-theoretic approaches based on backward induction, which is often computationally intensive. Compared with the frequentist approaches, Bayesian methods have several advantages. The posterior predictive probability serves as a useful and convenient tool for trial monitoring, and can be updated at any time as the data accrue during the trial. The Bayesian decision-theoretic framework possesses a direct link to the decision making in the practical setting, and can be modeled more realistically to reflect the actual cost-benefit analysis during the drug development process. Other merits include the possibility of hierarchical modeling and the use of informative priors, which would lead to a more comprehensive utilization of information from both historical and longitudinal data. From fixed to adaptive design, we focus on Bayesian randomized controlled clinical trials and make extensive comparisons with frequentist counterparts through numerical studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

2D Bayesian automated tilted-ring fitting of disc galaxies in large H I galaxy surveys: 2DBAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Se-Heon; Staveley-Smith, Lister; Spekkens, Kristine; Kamphuis, Peter; Koribalski, Bärbel S.

2018-01-01

We present a novel algorithm based on a Bayesian method for 2D tilted-ring analysis of disc galaxy velocity fields. Compared to the conventional algorithms based on a chi-squared minimization procedure, this new Bayesian-based algorithm suffers less from local minima of the model parameters even with highly multimodal posterior distributions. Moreover, the Bayesian analysis, implemented via Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, only requires broad ranges of posterior distributions of the parameters, which makes the fitting procedure fully automated. This feature will be essential when performing kinematic analysis on the large number of resolved galaxies expected to be detected in neutral hydrogen (H I) surveys with the Square Kilometre Array and its pathfinders. The so-called 2D Bayesian Automated Tilted-ring fitter (2DBAT) implements Bayesian fits of 2D tilted-ring models in order to derive rotation curves of galaxies. We explore 2DBAT performance on (a) artificial H I data cubes built based on representative rotation curves of intermediate-mass and massive spiral galaxies, and (b) Australia Telescope Compact Array H I data from the Local Volume H I Survey. We find that 2DBAT works best for well-resolved galaxies with intermediate inclinations (20° < i < 70°), complementing 3D techniques better suited to modelling inclined galaxies.

[Bayesian geostatistical prediction of soil organic carbon contents of solonchak soils in nor-thern Tarim Basin, Xinjiang, China.

PubMed

Wu, Wei Mo; Wang, Jia Qiang; Cao, Qi; Wu, Jia Ping

2017-02-01

Accurate prediction of soil organic carbon (SOC) distribution is crucial for soil resources utilization and conservation, climate change adaptation, and ecosystem health. In this study, we selected a 1300 m×1700 m solonchak sampling area in northern Tarim Basin, Xinjiang, China, and collected a total of 144 soil samples (5-10 cm). The objectives of this study were to build a Baye-sian geostatistical model to predict SOC content, and to assess the performance of the Bayesian model for the prediction of SOC content by comparing with other three geostatistical approaches [ordinary kriging (OK), sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS), and inverse distance weighting (IDW)]. In the study area, soil organic carbon contents ranged from 1.59 to 9.30 g·kg -1 with a mean of 4.36 g·kg -1 and a standard deviation of 1.62 g·kg -1 . Sample semivariogram was best fitted by an exponential model with the ratio of nugget to sill being 0.57. By using the Bayesian geostatistical approach, we generated the SOC content map, and obtained the prediction variance, upper 95% and lower 95% of SOC contents, which were then used to evaluate the prediction uncertainty. Bayesian geostatistical approach performed better than that of the OK, SGS and IDW, demonstrating the advantages of Bayesian approach in SOC prediction.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

/ VISION | About EMC EMC > NAM > EXPERIMENTAL DATA Home NAM Operational Products HIRESW Operational Products Operational Forecast Graphics Experimental Forecast Graphics Verification and Diagnostics Model PARALLEL/EXPERIMENTAL MODEL FORECAST GRAPHICS OPERATIONAL VERIFICATION / DIAGNOSTICS PARALLEL VERIFICATION

Optimal speech motor control and token-to-token variability: a Bayesian modeling approach.

PubMed

Patri, Jean-François; Diard, Julien; Perrier, Pascal

2015-12-01

The remarkable capacity of the speech motor system to adapt to various speech conditions is due to an excess of degrees of freedom, which enables producing similar acoustical properties with different sets of control strategies. To explain how the central nervous system selects one of the possible strategies, a common approach, in line with optimal motor control theories, is to model speech motor planning as the solution of an optimality problem based on cost functions. Despite the success of this approach, one of its drawbacks is the intrinsic contradiction between the concept of optimality and the observed experimental intra-speaker token-to-token variability. The present paper proposes an alternative approach by formulating feedforward optimal control in a probabilistic Bayesian modeling framework. This is illustrated by controlling a biomechanical model of the vocal tract for speech production and by comparing it with an existing optimal control model (GEPPETO). The essential elements of this optimal control model are presented first. From them the Bayesian model is constructed in a progressive way. Performance of the Bayesian model is evaluated based on computer simulations and compared to the optimal control model. This approach is shown to be appropriate for solving the speech planning problem while accounting for variability in a principled way.

A Probabilistic Approach for Real-Time Volcano Surveillance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannavo, F.; Cannata, A.; Cassisi, C.; Di Grazia, G.; Maronno, P.; Montalto, P.; Prestifilippo, M.; Privitera, E.; Gambino, S.; Coltelli, M.

2016-12-01

Continuous evaluation of the state of potentially dangerous volcanos plays a key role for civil protection purposes. Presently, real-time surveillance of most volcanoes worldwide is essentially delegated to one or more human experts in volcanology, who interpret data coming from different kind of monitoring networks. Unfavorably, the coupling of highly non-linear and complex volcanic dynamic processes leads to measurable effects that can show a large variety of different behaviors. Moreover, due to intrinsic uncertainties and possible failures in some recorded data, the volcano state needs to be expressed in probabilistic terms, thus making the fast volcano state assessment sometimes impracticable for the personnel on duty at the control rooms. With the aim of aiding the personnel on duty in volcano surveillance, we present a probabilistic graphical model to estimate automatically the ongoing volcano state from all the available different kind of measurements. The model consists of a Bayesian network able to represent a set of variables and their conditional dependencies via a directed acyclic graph. The model variables are both the measurements and the possible states of the volcano through the time. The model output is an estimation of the probability distribution of the feasible volcano states. We tested the model on the Mt. Etna (Italy) case study by considering a long record of multivariate data from 2011 to 2015 and cross-validated it. Results indicate that the proposed model is effective and of great power for decision making purposes.

Testing alternative ground water models using cross-validation and other methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Foglia, L.; Mehl, S.W.; Hill, M.C.; Perona, P.; Burlando, P.

2007-01-01

Many methods can be used to test alternative ground water models. Of concern in this work are methods able to (1) rank alternative models (also called model discrimination) and (2) identify observations important to parameter estimates and predictions (equivalent to the purpose served by some types of sensitivity analysis). Some of the measures investigated are computationally efficient; others are computationally demanding. The latter are generally needed to account for model nonlinearity. The efficient model discrimination methods investigated include the information criteria: the corrected Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and generalized cross-validation. The efficient sensitivity analysis measures used are dimensionless scaled sensitivity (DSS), composite scaled sensitivity, and parameter correlation coefficient (PCC); the other statistics are DFBETAS, Cook's D, and observation-prediction statistic. Acronyms are explained in the introduction. Cross-validation (CV) is a computationally intensive nonlinear method that is used for both model discrimination and sensitivity analysis. The methods are tested using up to five alternative parsimoniously constructed models of the ground water system of the Maggia Valley in southern Switzerland. The alternative models differ in their representation of hydraulic conductivity. A new method for graphically representing CV and sensitivity analysis results for complex models is presented and used to evaluate the utility of the efficient statistics. The results indicate that for model selection, the information criteria produce similar results at much smaller computational cost than CV. For identifying important observations, the only obviously inferior linear measure is DSS; the poor performance was expected because DSS does not include the effects of parameter correlation and PCC reveals large parameter correlations. ?? 2007 National Ground Water Association.

Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part II: Inverse models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Holland, K. Todd

2011-01-01

A Bayesian network model has been developed to simulate a relatively simple problem of wave propagation in the surf zone (detailed in Part I). Here, we demonstrate that this Bayesian model can provide both inverse modeling and data-assimilation solutions for predicting offshore wave heights and depth estimates given limited wave-height and depth information from an onshore location. The inverse method is extended to allow data assimilation using observational inputs that are not compatible with deterministic solutions of the problem. These inputs include sand bar positions (instead of bathymetry) and estimates of the intensity of wave breaking (instead of wave-height observations). Our results indicate that wave breaking information is essential to reduce prediction errors. In many practical situations, this information could be provided from a shore-based observer or from remote-sensing systems. We show that various combinations of the assimilated inputs significantly reduce the uncertainty in the estimates of water depths and wave heights in the model domain. Application of the Bayesian network model to new field data demonstrated significant predictive skill (R2 = 0.7) for the inverse estimate of a month-long time series of offshore wave heights. The Bayesian inverse results include uncertainty estimates that were shown to be most accurate when given uncertainty in the inputs (e.g., depth and tuning parameters). Furthermore, the inverse modeling was extended to directly estimate tuning parameters associated with the underlying wave-process model. The inverse estimates of the model parameters not only showed an offshore wave height dependence consistent with results of previous studies but the uncertainty estimates of the tuning parameters also explain previously reported variations in the model parameters.

Bayesian Image Segmentations by Potts Prior and Loopy Belief Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Kazuyuki; Kataoka, Shun; Yasuda, Muneki; Waizumi, Yuji; Hsu, Chiou-Ting

2014-12-01

This paper presents a Bayesian image segmentation model based on Potts prior and loopy belief propagation. The proposed Bayesian model involves several terms, including the pairwise interactions of Potts models, and the average vectors and covariant matrices of Gauss distributions in color image modeling. These terms are often referred to as hyperparameters in statistical machine learning theory. In order to determine these hyperparameters, we propose a new scheme for hyperparameter estimation based on conditional maximization of entropy in the Potts prior. The algorithm is given based on loopy belief propagation. In addition, we compare our conditional maximum entropy framework with the conventional maximum likelihood framework, and also clarify how the first order phase transitions in loopy belief propagations for Potts models influence our hyperparameter estimation procedures.

Inferring Markov chains: Bayesian estimation, model comparison, entropy rate, and out-of-class modeling.

PubMed

Strelioff, Christopher C; Crutchfield, James P; Hübler, Alfred W

2007-07-01

Markov chains are a natural and well understood tool for describing one-dimensional patterns in time or space. We show how to infer kth order Markov chains, for arbitrary k , from finite data by applying Bayesian methods to both parameter estimation and model-order selection. Extending existing results for multinomial models of discrete data, we connect inference to statistical mechanics through information-theoretic (type theory) techniques. We establish a direct relationship between Bayesian evidence and the partition function which allows for straightforward calculation of the expectation and variance of the conditional relative entropy and the source entropy rate. Finally, we introduce a method that uses finite data-size scaling with model-order comparison to infer the structure of out-of-class processes.

Heuristics as Bayesian inference under extreme priors.

PubMed

Parpart, Paula; Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

2018-05-01

Simple heuristics are often regarded as tractable decision strategies because they ignore a great deal of information in the input data. One puzzle is why heuristics can outperform full-information models, such as linear regression, which make full use of the available information. These "less-is-more" effects, in which a relatively simpler model outperforms a more complex model, are prevalent throughout cognitive science, and are frequently argued to demonstrate an inherent advantage of simplifying computation or ignoring information. In contrast, we show at the computational level (where algorithmic restrictions are set aside) that it is never optimal to discard information. Through a formal Bayesian analysis, we prove that popular heuristics, such as tallying and take-the-best, are formally equivalent to Bayesian inference under the limit of infinitely strong priors. Varying the strength of the prior yields a continuum of Bayesian models with the heuristics at one end and ordinary regression at the other. Critically, intermediate models perform better across all our simulations, suggesting that down-weighting information with the appropriate prior is preferable to entirely ignoring it. Rather than because of their simplicity, our analyses suggest heuristics perform well because they implement strong priors that approximate the actual structure of the environment. We end by considering how new heuristics could be derived by infinitely strengthening the priors of other Bayesian models. These formal results have implications for work in psychology, machine learning and economics. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Applying Bayesian Modeling and Receiver Operating Characteristic Methodologies for Test Utility Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Qiu; Diemer, Matthew A.; Maier, Kimberly S.

2013-01-01

This study integrated Bayesian hierarchical modeling and receiver operating characteristic analysis (BROCA) to evaluate how interest strength (IS) and interest differentiation (ID) predicted low–socioeconomic status (SES) youth's interest-major congruence (IMC). Using large-scale Kuder Career Search online-assessment data, this study fit three…

A Robust Bayesian Approach for Structural Equation Models with Missing Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Sik-Yum; Xia, Ye-Mao

2008-01-01

In this paper, normal/independent distributions, including but not limited to the multivariate t distribution, the multivariate contaminated distribution, and the multivariate slash distribution, are used to develop a robust Bayesian approach for analyzing structural equation models with complete or missing data. In the context of a nonlinear…

Hierarchical Bayesian Models of Subtask Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anglim, Jeromy; Wynton, Sarah K. A.

2015-01-01

The current study used Bayesian hierarchical methods to challenge and extend previous work on subtask learning consistency. A general model of individual-level subtask learning was proposed focusing on power and exponential functions with constraints to test for inconsistency. To study subtask learning, we developed a novel computer-based booking…

Bayesian Monte Carlo and Maximum Likelihood Approach for Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management: Application to Lake Oxygen Recovery Model

EPA Science Inventory

Model uncertainty estimation and risk assessment is essential to environmental management and informed decision making on pollution mitigation strategies. In this study, we apply a probabilistic methodology, which combines Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and Maximum Likelihood e...

Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2004 - Annual Report

EPA Science Inventory

This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O₃ and PM_2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2004 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O₃ ...

Fitting Residual Error Structures for Growth Models in SAS PROC MCMC

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNeish, Daniel

2017-01-01

In behavioral sciences broadly, estimating growth models with Bayesian methods is becoming increasingly common, especially to combat small samples common with longitudinal data. Although Mplus is becoming an increasingly common program for applied research employing Bayesian methods, the limited selection of prior distributions for the elements of…

Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) - Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2008: Annual Report

EPA Science Inventory

This report describes EPA’s Hierarchical Bayesian model generated (HBM) estimates of ozone (O₃) and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5, particles with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microns) concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2007 ca...

Bayesian Adaptive Lasso for Ordinal Regression with Latent Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feng, Xiang-Nan; Wu, Hao-Tian; Song, Xin-Yuan

2017-01-01

We consider an ordinal regression model with latent variables to investigate the effects of observable and latent explanatory variables on the ordinal responses of interest. Each latent variable is characterized by correlated observed variables through a confirmatory factor analysis model. We develop a Bayesian adaptive lasso procedure to conduct…

Incremental Bayesian Category Learning from Natural Language

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frermann, Lea; Lapata, Mirella

2016-01-01

Models of category learning have been extensively studied in cognitive science and primarily tested on perceptual abstractions or artificial stimuli. In this paper, we focus on categories acquired from natural language stimuli, that is, words (e.g., "chair" is a member of the furniture category). We present a Bayesian model that, unlike…

Improved inference in Bayesian segmentation using Monte Carlo sampling: application to hippocampal subfield volumetry.

PubMed

Iglesias, Juan Eugenio; Sabuncu, Mert Rory; Van Leemput, Koen

2013-10-01

Many segmentation algorithms in medical image analysis use Bayesian modeling to augment local image appearance with prior anatomical knowledge. Such methods often contain a large number of free parameters that are first estimated and then kept fixed during the actual segmentation process. However, a faithful Bayesian analysis would marginalize over such parameters, accounting for their uncertainty by considering all possible values they may take. Here we propose to incorporate this uncertainty into Bayesian segmentation methods in order to improve the inference process. In particular, we approximate the required marginalization over model parameters using computationally efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We illustrate the proposed approach using a recently developed Bayesian method for the segmentation of hippocampal subfields in brain MRI scans, showing a significant improvement in an Alzheimer's disease classification task. As an additional benefit, the technique also allows one to compute informative "error bars" on the volume estimates of individual structures. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved Inference in Bayesian Segmentation Using Monte Carlo Sampling: Application to Hippocampal Subfield Volumetry

PubMed Central

Iglesias, Juan Eugenio; Sabuncu, Mert Rory; Leemput, Koen Van

2013-01-01

Many segmentation algorithms in medical image analysis use Bayesian modeling to augment local image appearance with prior anatomical knowledge. Such methods often contain a large number of free parameters that are first estimated and then kept fixed during the actual segmentation process. However, a faithful Bayesian analysis would marginalize over such parameters, accounting for their uncertainty by considering all possible values they may take. Here we propose to incorporate this uncertainty into Bayesian segmentation methods in order to improve the inference process. In particular, we approximate the required marginalization over model parameters using computationally efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We illustrate the proposed approach using a recently developed Bayesian method for the segmentation of hippocampal subfields in brain MRI scans, showing a significant improvement in an Alzheimer’s disease classification task. As an additional benefit, the technique also allows one to compute informative “error bars” on the volume estimates of individual structures. PMID:23773521

Why Bayesian Psychologists Should Change the Way They Use the Bayes Factor.

PubMed

Hoijtink, Herbert; van Kooten, Pascal; Hulsker, Koenraad

2016-01-01

The discussion following Bem's ( 2011 ) psi research highlights that applications of the Bayes factor in psychological research are not without problems. The first problem is the omission to translate subjective prior knowledge into subjective prior distributions. In the words of Savage ( 1961 ): "they make the Bayesian omelet without breaking the Bayesian egg." The second problem occurs if the Bayesian egg is not broken: the omission to choose default prior distributions such that the ensuing inferences are well calibrated. The third problem is the adherence to inadequate rules for the interpretation of the size of the Bayes factor. The current paper will elaborate these problems and show how to avoid them using the basic hypotheses and statistical model used in the first experiment described in Bem ( 2011 ). It will be argued that a thorough investigation of these problems in the context of more encompassing hypotheses and statistical models is called for if Bayesian psychologists want to add a well-founded Bayes factor to the tool kit of psychological researchers.

A Bayesian Network approach for flash flood risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boutkhamouine, Brahim; Roux, Hélène; Pérès, François

2017-04-01

Climate change is contributing to the increase of natural disasters such as extreme weather events. Sometimes, these events lead to sudden flash floods causing devastating effects on life and property. Most recently, many regions of the French Mediterranean perimeter have endured such catastrophic flood events; Var (October 2015), Ardèche (November 2014), Nîmes (October 2014), Hérault, Gard and Languedoc (September 2014), and Pyrenees mountains (Jun 2013). Altogether, it resulted in dozens of victims and property damages amounting to millions of euros. With this heavy loss in mind, development of hydrological forecasting and warning systems is becoming an essential element in regional and national strategies. Flash flood forecasting but also monitoring is a difficult task because small ungauged catchments ( 10 km2) are often the most destructive ones as for the extreme flash flood event of September 2002 in the Cévennes region (France) (Ruin et al., 2008). The problem of measurement/prediction uncertainty is particularly crucial when attempting to develop operational flash-flood forecasting methods. Taking into account the uncertainty related to the model structure itself, to the model parametrization or to the model forcing (spatio-temporal rainfall, initial conditions) is crucial in hydrological modelling. Quantifying these uncertainties is of primary importance for risk assessment and decision making. Although significant improvements have been made in computational power and distributed hydrologic modelling, the issue dealing with integration of uncertainties into flood forecasting remains up-to-date and challenging. In order to develop a framework which could handle these uncertainties and explain their propagation through the model, we propose to explore the potential of graphical models (GMs) and, more precisely, Bayesian Networks (BNs). These networks are Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) in which knowledge of a certain phenomenon is represented by influencing variables. Each node of the graph corresponds to a variable and arcs represent the probabilistic dependencies between these variables. Both the quantification of the strength of these probabilistic dependencies and the computation of inferences are based on Bayes' theorem. In order to use BNs for the assessment of the flooding risks, the modelling work is divided into two parts. First, identifying all the factors controlling the flood generation. The qualitative explanation of this issue is then reached by establishing the cause and effect relationships between these factors. These underlying relationships are represented in what we call Conditional Probabilities Tables (CPTs). The next step is to estimate these CPTs using information coming from network of sensors, databases and expertise. By using this basic cognitive structure, we will be able to estimate the magnitude of flood risk in a small geographical area with a homogeneous hydrological system. The second part of our work will be dedicated to the estimation of this risk on the scale of a basin. To do so, we will create a spatio-temporal model able to take in consideration both spatial and temporal variability of all factors involved in the flood generation. Key words: Flash flood forecasting - Uncertainty modelling - flood risk management -Bayesian Networks.

Prediction of Postoperative Clinical Recovery of Drop Foot Attributable to Lumbar Degenerative Diseases, via a Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Takenaka, Shota; Aono, Hiroyuki

2017-03-01

Drop foot resulting from degenerative lumbar diseases can impair activities of daily living. Therefore, predictors of recovery of this symptom have been investigated using univariate or/and multivariate analyses. However, the conclusions have been somewhat controversial. Bayesian network models, which are graphic and intuitive to the clinician, may facilitate understanding of the prognosis of drop foot resulting from degenerative lumbar diseases. (1) To show a layered correlation among predictors of recovery from drop foot resulting from degenerative lumbar diseases; and (2) to develop support tools for clinical decisions to treat drop foot resulting from lumbar degenerative diseases. Between 1993 and 2013, we treated 141 patients with decompressive lumbar spine surgery who presented with drop foot attributable to degenerative diseases. Of those, 102 (72%) were included in this retrospective study because they had drop foot of recent development and had no diseases develop that affect evaluation of drop foot after surgery. Specifically, 28 (20%) patients could not be analyzed because their records were not available at a minimum of 2 years followup after surgery and 11 (8%) were lost owing to postoperative conditions that affect the muscle strength evaluation. Eight candidate variables were sex, age, herniated soft disc, duration of the neurologic injury (duration), preoperative tibialis anterior muscle strength (pretibialis anterior), leg pain, cauda equina syndrome, and number of involved levels. Manual muscle testing was used to assess the tibialis anterior muscle strength. Drop foot was defined as a tibialis anterior muscle strength score of less than 3 of 5 (5 = movement against gravity and full resistance, 4 = movement against gravity and moderate resistance, 3 = movement against gravity through full ROM, 3- = movement against gravity through partial ROM, 2 = movement with gravity eliminated through full ROM, 1 = slight contraction but no movement, and 0 = no contraction). The two outcomes of interest were postoperative tibialis anterior muscle strength (posttibialis anterior) of 3 or greater and posttibialis anterior strength of 4 or greater at 2 years after surgery. We developed two separate Bayesian network models with outcomes of interest for posttibialis anterior strength of 3 or greater and posttibialis anterior strength of 4 or greater. The two outcomes correspond to "good" and "excellent" results based on previous reports, respectively. Direct predictors are defined as variables that have the tail of the arrow connecting the outcome of interest, whereas indirect predictors are defined as variables that have the tail of the arrow connecting either direct predictors or other indirect predictors that have the tail of the arrow connecting direct predictors. Sevenfold cross validation and receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed to evaluate the accuracy and robustness of the Bayesian network models. Both of our Bayesian network models showed that weaker muscle power before surgery (pretibialis anterior ≤ 1) and longer duration of neurologic injury before treatment (> 30 days) were associated with a decreased likelihood of return of function by 2 years. The models for posttibialis anterior muscle strength of 3 or greater and posttibialis anterior muscle strength of 4 or greater were the same in terms of the graphs, showing that the two direct predictors were pretibialis anterior muscle strength (score ≤ 1 or ≥ 2) and duration (≤ 30 days or > 30 days). Age, herniated soft disc, and leg pain were identified as indirect predictors. We developed a decision-support tool in which the clinician can enter pretibialis anterior muscle strength and duration, and from this obtain the probability estimates of posttibialis anterior muscle strength. The probability estimates of posttibialis anterior muscle strength of 3 or greater and posttibialis anterior muscle strength of 4 or greater were 94% and 85%, respectively, in the most-favorable conditions (pretibialis anterior ≥ 2; duration ≤ 30 days) and 18% and 14%, respectively, in the least-favorable conditions (pretibialis anterior ≤ 1; duration > 30 days). On the sevenfold cross validation, the area under the ROC curve yielded means of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.68-0.87) and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.64-0.84) for posttibialis anterior muscle strength of 3 or greater and posttibialis anterior muscle strength of 4 or greater, respectively. The results of this study suggest that the clinician can understand intuitively the layered correlation among predictors by Bayesian network models. Based on the models, the decision-support tool successfully provided the probability estimates of posttibialis anterior muscle strength to treat drop foot attributable to lumbar degenerative diseases. These models were shown to be robust on the internal validation but should be externally validated in other populations. Level III, therapeutic study.

A Bayesian Approach for Image Segmentation with Shape Priors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chang, Hang; Yang, Qing; Parvin, Bahram

2008-06-20

Color and texture have been widely used in image segmentation; however, their performance is often hindered by scene ambiguities, overlapping objects, or missingparts. In this paper, we propose an interactive image segmentation approach with shape prior models within a Bayesian framework. Interactive features, through mouse strokes, reduce ambiguities, and the incorporation of shape priors enhances quality of the segmentation where color and/or texture are not solely adequate. The novelties of our approach are in (i) formulating the segmentation problem in a well-de?ned Bayesian framework with multiple shape priors, (ii) ef?ciently estimating parameters of the Bayesian model, and (iii) multi-object segmentationmore » through user-speci?ed priors. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on a set of natural and synthetic images.« less

Protein construct storage: Bayesian variable selection and prediction with mixtures.

PubMed

Clyde, M A; Parmigiani, G

1998-07-01

Determining optimal conditions for protein storage while maintaining a high level of protein activity is an important question in pharmaceutical research. A designed experiment based on a space-filling design was conducted to understand the effects of factors affecting protein storage and to establish optimal storage conditions. Different model-selection strategies to identify important factors may lead to very different answers about optimal conditions. Uncertainty about which factors are important, or model uncertainty, can be a critical issue in decision-making. We use Bayesian variable selection methods for linear models to identify important variables in the protein storage data, while accounting for model uncertainty. We also use the Bayesian framework to build predictions based on a large family of models, rather than an individual model, and to evaluate the probability that certain candidate storage conditions are optimal.

Modeling Soot Oxidation and Gasification with Bayesian Statistics

DOE PAGES

Josephson, Alexander J.; Gaffin, Neal D.; Smith, Sean T.; ...

2017-08-22

This paper presents a statistical method for model calibration using data collected from literature. The method is used to calibrate parameters for global models of soot consumption in combustion systems. This consumption is broken into two different submodels: first for oxidation where soot particles are attacked by certain oxidizing agents; second for gasification where soot particles are attacked by H 2O or CO 2 molecules. Rate data were collected from 19 studies in the literature and evaluated using Bayesian statistics to calibrate the model parameters. Bayesian statistics are valued in their ability to quantify uncertainty in modeling. The calibrated consumptionmore » model with quantified uncertainty is presented here along with a discussion of associated implications. The oxidation results are found to be consistent with previous studies. Significant variation is found in the CO 2 gasification rates.« less

Modeling Soot Oxidation and Gasification with Bayesian Statistics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Josephson, Alexander J.; Gaffin, Neal D.; Smith, Sean T.

This paper presents a statistical method for model calibration using data collected from literature. The method is used to calibrate parameters for global models of soot consumption in combustion systems. This consumption is broken into two different submodels: first for oxidation where soot particles are attacked by certain oxidizing agents; second for gasification where soot particles are attacked by H 2O or CO 2 molecules. Rate data were collected from 19 studies in the literature and evaluated using Bayesian statistics to calibrate the model parameters. Bayesian statistics are valued in their ability to quantify uncertainty in modeling. The calibrated consumptionmore » model with quantified uncertainty is presented here along with a discussion of associated implications. The oxidation results are found to be consistent with previous studies. Significant variation is found in the CO 2 gasification rates.« less

Learning oncogenetic networks by reducing to mixed integer linear programming.

PubMed

Shahrabi Farahani, Hossein; Lagergren, Jens

2013-01-01

Cancer can be a result of accumulation of different types of genetic mutations such as copy number aberrations. The data from tumors are cross-sectional and do not contain the temporal order of the genetic events. Finding the order in which the genetic events have occurred and progression pathways are of vital importance in understanding the disease. In order to model cancer progression, we propose Progression Networks, a special case of Bayesian networks, that are tailored to model disease progression. Progression networks have similarities with Conjunctive Bayesian Networks (CBNs) [1],a variation of Bayesian networks also proposed for modeling disease progression. We also describe a learning algorithm for learning Bayesian networks in general and progression networks in particular. We reduce the hard problem of learning the Bayesian and progression networks to Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). MILP is a Non-deterministic Polynomial-time complete (NP-complete) problem for which very good heuristics exists. We tested our algorithm on synthetic and real cytogenetic data from renal cell carcinoma. We also compared our learned progression networks with the networks proposed in earlier publications. The software is available on the website https://bitbucket.org/farahani/diprog.

Traffic Video Image Segmentation Model Based on Bayesian and Spatio-Temporal Markov Random Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Jun; Bao, Xu; Li, Dawei; Yin, Yongwen

2017-10-01

Traffic video image is a kind of dynamic image and its background and foreground is changed at any time, which results in the occlusion. In this case, using the general method is more difficult to get accurate image segmentation. A segmentation algorithm based on Bayesian and Spatio-Temporal Markov Random Field is put forward, which respectively build the energy function model of observation field and label field to motion sequence image with Markov property, then according to Bayesian' rule, use the interaction of label field and observation field, that is the relationship of label field’s prior probability and observation field’s likelihood probability, get the maximum posterior probability of label field’s estimation parameter, use the ICM model to extract the motion object, consequently the process of segmentation is finished. Finally, the segmentation methods of ST - MRF and the Bayesian combined with ST - MRF were analyzed. Experimental results: the segmentation time in Bayesian combined with ST-MRF algorithm is shorter than in ST-MRF, and the computing workload is small, especially in the heavy traffic dynamic scenes the method also can achieve better segmentation effect.

Non-Bayesian Noun Generalization in 3-to 5-Year-Old Children: Probing the Role of Prior Knowledge in the Suspicious Coincidence Effect

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jenkins, Gavin W.; Samuelson, Larissa K.; Smith, Jodi R.; Spencer, John P.

2015-01-01

It is unclear how children learn labels for multiple overlapping categories such as "Labrador," "dog," and "animal." Xu and Tenenbaum (2007a) suggested that learners infer correct meanings with the help of Bayesian inference. They instantiated these claims in a Bayesian model, which they tested with preschoolers and…

Bayesian Inference: with ecological applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, William A.; Barker, Richard J.

2010-01-01

This text provides a mathematically rigorous yet accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference with relevant examples that will be of interest to biologists working in the fields of ecology, wildlife management and environmental studies as well as students in advanced undergraduate statistics.. This text opens the door to Bayesian inference, taking advantage of modern computational efficiencies and easily accessible software to evaluate complex hierarchical models.

Bayesian Latent Class Analysis Tutorial.

PubMed

Li, Yuelin; Lord-Bessen, Jennifer; Shiyko, Mariya; Loeb, Rebecca

2018-01-01

This article is a how-to guide on Bayesian computation using Gibbs sampling, demonstrated in the context of Latent Class Analysis (LCA). It is written for students in quantitative psychology or related fields who have a working knowledge of Bayes Theorem and conditional probability and have experience in writing computer programs in the statistical language R . The overall goals are to provide an accessible and self-contained tutorial, along with a practical computation tool. We begin with how Bayesian computation is typically described in academic articles. Technical difficulties are addressed by a hypothetical, worked-out example. We show how Bayesian computation can be broken down into a series of simpler calculations, which can then be assembled together to complete a computationally more complex model. The details are described much more explicitly than what is typically available in elementary introductions to Bayesian modeling so that readers are not overwhelmed by the mathematics. Moreover, the provided computer program shows how Bayesian LCA can be implemented with relative ease. The computer program is then applied in a large, real-world data set and explained line-by-line. We outline the general steps in how to extend these considerations to other methodological applications. We conclude with suggestions for further readings.

Model Selection and Psychological Theory: A Discussion of the Differences between the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vrieze, Scott I.

2012-01-01

This article reviews the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) in model selection and the appraisal of psychological theory. The focus is on latent variable models, given their growing use in theory testing and construction. Theoretical statistical results in regression are discussed, and more important…

Bayesian Estimation of Panel Data Fractional Response Models with Endogeneity: An Application to Standardized Test Rates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kessler, Lawrence M.

2013-01-01

In this paper I propose Bayesian estimation of a nonlinear panel data model with a fractional dependent variable (bounded between 0 and 1). Specifically, I estimate a panel data fractional probit model which takes into account the bounded nature of the fractional response variable. I outline estimation under the assumption of strict exogeneity as…

A Dynamic Bayesian Network Based Structural Learning towards Automated Handwritten Digit Recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauplin, Olivier; Jiang, Jianmin

Pattern recognition using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) is currently a growing area of study. In this paper, we present DBN models trained for classification of handwritten digit characters. The structure of these models is partly inferred from the training data of each class of digit before performing parameter learning. Classification results are presented for the four described models.

Investigating the Theoretical Structure of the DAS-II Core Battery at School Age Using Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dombrowski, Stefan C.; Golay, Philippe; McGill, Ryan J.; Canivez, Gary L.

2018-01-01

Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) was used to investigate the latent structure of the Differential Ability Scales-Second Edition core battery using the standardization sample normative data for ages 7-17. Results revealed plausibility of a three-factor model, consistent with publisher theory, expressed as either a higher-order (HO) or a…

Application of Bayesian methods to habitat selection modeling of the northern spotted owl in California: new statistical methods for wildlife research

Treesearch

Howard B. Stauffer; Cynthia J. Zabel; Jeffrey R. Dunk

2005-01-01

We compared a set of competing logistic regression habitat selection models for Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) in California. The habitat selection models were estimated, compared, evaluated, and tested using multiple sample datasets collected on federal forestlands in northern California. We used Bayesian methods in interpreting...

Reweighting Data in the Spirit of Tukey: Using Bayesian Posterior Probabilities as Rasch Residuals for Studying Misfit

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dardick, William R.; Mislevy, Robert J.

2016-01-01

A new variant of the iterative "data = fit + residual" data-analytical approach described by Mosteller and Tukey is proposed and implemented in the context of item response theory psychometric models. Posterior probabilities from a Bayesian mixture model of a Rasch item response theory model and an unscalable latent class are expressed…

A Test of Bayesian Observer Models of Processing in the Eriksen Flanker Task

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

White, Corey N.; Brown, Scott; Ratcliff, Roger

2012-01-01

Two Bayesian observer models were recently proposed to account for data from the Eriksen flanker task, in which flanking items interfere with processing of a central target. One model assumes that interference stems from a perceptual bias to process nearby items as if they are compatible, and the other assumes that the interference is due to…

A Bayesian Model for the Estimation of Latent Interaction and Quadratic Effects When Latent Variables Are Non-Normally Distributed

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelava, Augustin; Nagengast, Benjamin

2012-01-01

Structural equation models with interaction and quadratic effects have become a standard tool for testing nonlinear hypotheses in the social sciences. Most of the current approaches assume normally distributed latent predictor variables. In this article, we present a Bayesian model for the estimation of latent nonlinear effects when the latent…

A simulation study on Bayesian Ridge regression models for several collinearity levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efendi, Achmad; Effrihan

2017-12-01

When analyzing data with multiple regression model if there are collinearities, then one or several predictor variables are usually omitted from the model. However, there sometimes some reasons, for instance medical or economic reasons, the predictors are all important and should be included in the model. Ridge regression model is not uncommon in some researches to use to cope with collinearity. Through this modeling, weights for predictor variables are used for estimating parameters. The next estimation process could follow the concept of likelihood. Furthermore, for the estimation nowadays the Bayesian version could be an alternative. This estimation method does not match likelihood one in terms of popularity due to some difficulties; computation and so forth. Nevertheless, with the growing improvement of computational methodology recently, this caveat should not at the moment become a problem. This paper discusses about simulation process for evaluating the characteristic of Bayesian Ridge regression parameter estimates. There are several simulation settings based on variety of collinearity levels and sample sizes. The results show that Bayesian method gives better performance for relatively small sample sizes, and for other settings the method does perform relatively similar to the likelihood method.

Comparing Families of Dynamic Causal Models

PubMed Central

Penny, Will D.; Stephan, Klaas E.; Daunizeau, Jean; Rosa, Maria J.; Friston, Karl J.; Schofield, Thomas M.; Leff, Alex P.

2010-01-01

Mathematical models of scientific data can be formally compared using Bayesian model evidence. Previous applications in the biological sciences have mainly focussed on model selection in which one first selects the model with the highest evidence and then makes inferences based on the parameters of that model. This “best model” approach is very useful but can become brittle if there are a large number of models to compare, and if different subjects use different models. To overcome this shortcoming we propose the combination of two further approaches: (i) family level inference and (ii) Bayesian model averaging within families. Family level inference removes uncertainty about aspects of model structure other than the characteristic of interest. For example: What are the inputs to the system? Is processing serial or parallel? Is it linear or nonlinear? Is it mediated by a single, crucial connection? We apply Bayesian model averaging within families to provide inferences about parameters that are independent of further assumptions about model structure. We illustrate the methods using Dynamic Causal Models of brain imaging data. PMID:20300649

Technical Topic 3.2.2.d Bayesian and Non-Parametric Statistics: Integration of Neural Networks with Bayesian Networks for Data Fusion and Predictive Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-05-31

and included explosives such as TATP, HMTD, RDX, RDX, ammonium nitrate , potassium perchlorate, potassium nitrate , sugar, and TNT. The approach...Distribution Unlimited UU UU UU UU 31-05-2016 15-Apr-2014 14-Jan-2015 Final Report: Technical Topic 3.2.2. d Bayesian and Non- parametric Statistics...of Papers published in non peer-reviewed journals: Final Report: Technical Topic 3.2.2. d Bayesian and Non-parametric Statistics: Integration of Neural

A Modular GIS-Based Software Architecture for Model Parameter Estimation using the Method of Anchored Distributions (MAD)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ames, D. P.; Osorio-Murillo, C.; Over, M. W.; Rubin, Y.

2012-12-01

The Method of Anchored Distributions (MAD) is an inverse modeling technique that is well-suited for estimation of spatially varying parameter fields using limited observations and Bayesian methods. This presentation will discuss the design, development, and testing of a free software implementation of the MAD technique using the open source DotSpatial geographic information system (GIS) framework, R statistical software, and the MODFLOW groundwater model. This new tool, dubbed MAD-GIS, is built using a modular architecture that supports the integration of external analytical tools and models for key computational processes including a forward model (e.g. MODFLOW, HYDRUS) and geostatistical analysis (e.g. R, GSLIB). The GIS-based graphical user interface provides a relatively simple way for new users of the technique to prepare the spatial domain, to identify observation and anchor points, to perform the MAD analysis using a selected forward model, and to view results. MAD-GIS uses the Managed Extensibility Framework (MEF) provided by the Microsoft .NET programming platform to support integration of different modeling and analytical tools at run-time through a custom "driver." Each driver establishes a connection with external programs through a programming interface, which provides the elements for communicating with core MAD software. This presentation gives an example of adapting the MODFLOW to serve as the external forward model in MAD-GIS for inferring the distribution functions of key MODFLOW parameters. Additional drivers for other models are being developed and it is expected that the open source nature of the project will engender the development of additional model drivers by 3rd party scientists.

Understanding of Relation Structures of Graphical Models by Lower Secondary Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Buuren, Onne; Heck, André; Ellermeijer, Ton

2016-01-01

A learning path has been developed on system dynamical graphical modelling, integrated into the Dutch lower secondary physics curriculum. As part of the developmental research for this learning path, students' understanding of the relation structures shown in the diagrams of graphical system dynamics based models has been investigated. One of our…

Parametric inference for biological sequence analysis.

PubMed

Pachter, Lior; Sturmfels, Bernd

2004-11-16

One of the major successes in computational biology has been the unification, by using the graphical model formalism, of a multitude of algorithms for annotating and comparing biological sequences. Graphical models that have been applied to these problems include hidden Markov models for annotation, tree models for phylogenetics, and pair hidden Markov models for alignment. A single algorithm, the sum-product algorithm, solves many of the inference problems that are associated with different statistical models. This article introduces the polytope propagation algorithm for computing the Newton polytope of an observation from a graphical model. This algorithm is a geometric version of the sum-product algorithm and is used to analyze the parametric behavior of maximum a posteriori inference calculations for graphical models.

Bias in logistic regression due to imperfect diagnostic test results and practical correction approaches.

PubMed

Valle, Denis; Lima, Joanna M Tucker; Millar, Justin; Amratia, Punam; Haque, Ubydul

2015-11-04

Logistic regression is a statistical model widely used in cross-sectional and cohort studies to identify and quantify the effects of potential disease risk factors. However, the impact of imperfect tests on adjusted odds ratios (and thus on the identification of risk factors) is under-appreciated. The purpose of this article is to draw attention to the problem associated with modelling imperfect diagnostic tests, and propose simple Bayesian models to adequately address this issue. A systematic literature review was conducted to determine the proportion of malaria studies that appropriately accounted for false-negatives/false-positives in a logistic regression setting. Inference from the standard logistic regression was also compared with that from three proposed Bayesian models using simulations and malaria data from the western Brazilian Amazon. A systematic literature review suggests that malaria epidemiologists are largely unaware of the problem of using logistic regression to model imperfect diagnostic test results. Simulation results reveal that statistical inference can be substantially improved when using the proposed Bayesian models versus the standard logistic regression. Finally, analysis of original malaria data with one of the proposed Bayesian models reveals that microscopy sensitivity is strongly influenced by how long people have lived in the study region, and an important risk factor (i.e., participation in forest extractivism) is identified that would have been missed by standard logistic regression. Given the numerous diagnostic methods employed by malaria researchers and the ubiquitous use of logistic regression to model the results of these diagnostic tests, this paper provides critical guidelines to improve data analysis practice in the presence of misclassification error. Easy-to-use code that can be readily adapted to WinBUGS is provided, enabling straightforward implementation of the proposed Bayesian models.

An Application of Bayesian Approach in Modeling Risk of Death in an Intensive Care Unit

PubMed Central

Wong, Rowena Syn Yin; Ismail, Noor Azina

2016-01-01

Background and Objectives There are not many studies that attempt to model intensive care unit (ICU) risk of death in developing countries, especially in South East Asia. The aim of this study was to propose and describe application of a Bayesian approach in modeling in-ICU deaths in a Malaysian ICU. Methods This was a prospective study in a mixed medical-surgery ICU in a multidisciplinary tertiary referral hospital in Malaysia. Data collection included variables that were defined in Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE IV) model. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation approach was applied in the development of four multivariate logistic regression predictive models for the ICU, where the main outcome measure was in-ICU mortality risk. The performance of the models were assessed through overall model fit, discrimination and calibration measures. Results from the Bayesian models were also compared against results obtained using frequentist maximum likelihood method. Results The study involved 1,286 consecutive ICU admissions between January 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010, of which 1,111 met the inclusion criteria. Patients who were admitted to the ICU were generally younger, predominantly male, with low co-morbidity load and mostly under mechanical ventilation. The overall in-ICU mortality rate was 18.5% and the overall mean Acute Physiology Score (APS) was 68.5. All four models exhibited good discrimination, with area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values approximately 0.8. Calibration was acceptable (Hosmer-Lemeshow p-values > 0.05) for all models, except for model M3. Model M1 was identified as the model with the best overall performance in this study. Conclusion Four prediction models were proposed, where the best model was chosen based on its overall performance in this study. This study has also demonstrated the promising potential of the Bayesian MCMC approach as an alternative in the analysis and modeling of in-ICU mortality outcomes. PMID:27007413