Ultrafast current imaging by Bayesian inversion

DOE Data Explorer

Somnath, Suhas; Law, Kody J. H.; Morozovska, Anna; Maksymovych, Petro; Kim, Yunseok; Lu, Xiaoli; Alexe, Marin; Archibald, Richard K; Kalinin, Sergei V; Jesse, Stephen; Vasudevan, Rama K

2016-01-01

Spectroscopic measurements of current-voltage curves in scanning probe microscopy is the earliest and one of the most common methods for characterizing local energy-dependent electronic properties, providing insight into superconductive, semiconductor, and memristive behaviors. However, the quasistatic nature of these measurements renders them extremely slow. Here, we demonstrate a fundamentally new approach for dynamic spectroscopic current imaging via full information capture and Bayesian inference analysis. This "general-mode I-V"method allows three orders of magnitude faster rates than presently possible. The technique is demonstrated by acquiring I-V curves in ferroelectric nanocapacitors, yielding >100,000 I-V curves in <20 minutes. This allows detection of switching currents in the nanoscale capacitors, as well as determination of dielectric constant. These experiments show the potential for the use of full information capture and Bayesian inference towards extracting physics from rapid I-V measurements, and can be used for transport measurements in both atomic force and scanning tunneling microscopy. The data was analyzed using pycroscopy - an open-source python package available at https://github.com/pycroscopy/pycroscopy

A wavelet-based Bayesian framework for 3D object segmentation in microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Kangyu; Corrigan, David; Hillebrand, Jens; Ramaswami, Mani; Kokaram, Anil

2012-03-01

In confocal microscopy, target objects are labeled with fluorescent markers in the living specimen, and usually appear with irregular brightness in the observed images. Also, due to the existence of out-of-focus objects in the image, the segmentation of 3-D objects in the stack of image slices captured at different depth levels of the specimen is still heavily relied on manual analysis. In this paper, a novel Bayesian model is proposed for segmenting 3-D synaptic objects from given image stack. In order to solve the irregular brightness and out-offocus problems, the segmentation model employs a likelihood using the luminance-invariant 'wavelet features' of image objects in the dual-tree complex wavelet domain as well as a likelihood based on the vertical intensity profile of the image stack in 3-D. Furthermore, a smoothness 'frame' prior based on the a priori knowledge of the connections of the synapses is introduced to the model for enhancing the connectivity of the synapses. As a result, our model can successfully segment the in-focus target synaptic object from a 3D image stack with irregular brightness.

Applications of Bayesian Procrustes shape analysis to ensemble radar reflectivity nowcast verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, Neil I.; Micheas, Athanasios C.; Peng, Yuqiang

2016-07-01

This paper introduces the use of Bayesian full Procrustes shape analysis in object-oriented meteorological applications. In particular, the Procrustes methodology is used to generate mean forecast precipitation fields from a set of ensemble forecasts. This approach has advantages over other ensemble averaging techniques in that it can produce a forecast that retains the morphological features of the precipitation structures and present the range of forecast outcomes represented by the ensemble. The production of the ensemble mean avoids the problems of smoothing that result from simple pixel or cell averaging, while producing credible sets that retain information on ensemble spread. Also in this paper, the full Bayesian Procrustes scheme is used as an object verification tool for precipitation forecasts. This is an extension of a previously presented Procrustes shape analysis based verification approach into a full Bayesian format designed to handle the verification of precipitation forecasts that match objects from an ensemble of forecast fields to a single truth image. The methodology is tested on radar reflectivity nowcasts produced in the Warning Decision Support System - Integrated Information (WDSS-II) by varying parameters in the K-means cluster tracking scheme.

Improved Determination of the Myelin Water Fraction in Human Brain using Magnetic Resonance Imaging through Bayesian Analysis of mcDESPOT

PubMed Central

Bouhrara, Mustapha; Spencer, Richard G.

2015-01-01

Myelin water fraction (MWF) mapping with magnetic resonance imaging has led to the ability to directly observe myelination and demyelination in both the developing brain and in disease. Multicomponent driven equilibrium single pulse observation of T1 and T2 (mcDESPOT) has been proposed as a rapid approach for multicomponent relaxometry and has been applied to map MWF in human brain. However, even for the simplest two-pool signal model consisting of MWF and non-myelin-associated water, the dimensionality of the parameter space for obtaining MWF estimates remains high. This renders parameter estimation difficult, especially at low-to-moderate signal-to-noise ratios (SNR), due to the presence of local minima and the flatness of the fit residual energy surface used for parameter determination using conventional nonlinear least squares (NLLS)-based algorithms. In this study, we introduce three Bayesian approaches for analysis of the mcDESPOT signal model to determine MWF. Given the high dimensional nature of mcDESPOT signal model, and, thereby, the high dimensional marginalizations over nuisance parameters needed to derive the posterior probability distribution of MWF parameter, the introduced Bayesian analyses use different approaches to reduce the dimensionality of the parameter space. The first approach uses normalization by average signal amplitude, and assumes that noise can be accurately estimated from signal-free regions of the image. The second approach likewise uses average amplitude normalization, but incorporates a full treatment of noise as an unknown variable through marginalization. The third approach does not use amplitude normalization and incorporates marginalization over both noise and signal amplitude. Through extensive Monte Carlo numerical simulations and analysis of in-vivo human brain datasets exhibiting a range of SNR and spatial resolution, we demonstrated the markedly improved accuracy and precision in the estimation of MWF using these Bayesian methods as compared to the stochastic region contraction (SRC) implementation of NLLS. PMID:26499810

The image recognition based on neural network and Bayesian decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chugege

2018-04-01

The artificial neural network began in 1940, which is an important part of artificial intelligence. At present, it has become a hot topic in the fields of neuroscience, computer science, brain science, mathematics, and psychology. Thomas Bayes firstly reported the Bayesian theory in 1763. After the development in the twentieth century, it has been widespread in all areas of statistics. In recent years, due to the solution of the problem of high-dimensional integral calculation, Bayesian Statistics has been improved theoretically, which solved many problems that cannot be solved by classical statistics and is also applied to the interdisciplinary fields. In this paper, the related concepts and principles of the artificial neural network are introduced. It also summarizes the basic content and principle of Bayesian Statistics, and combines the artificial neural network technology and Bayesian decision theory and implement them in all aspects of image recognition, such as enhanced face detection method based on neural network and Bayesian decision, as well as the image classification based on the Bayesian decision. It can be seen that the combination of artificial intelligence and statistical algorithms has always been the hot research topic.

Traffic Video Image Segmentation Model Based on Bayesian and Spatio-Temporal Markov Random Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Jun; Bao, Xu; Li, Dawei; Yin, Yongwen

2017-10-01

Traffic video image is a kind of dynamic image and its background and foreground is changed at any time, which results in the occlusion. In this case, using the general method is more difficult to get accurate image segmentation. A segmentation algorithm based on Bayesian and Spatio-Temporal Markov Random Field is put forward, which respectively build the energy function model of observation field and label field to motion sequence image with Markov property, then according to Bayesian' rule, use the interaction of label field and observation field, that is the relationship of label field’s prior probability and observation field’s likelihood probability, get the maximum posterior probability of label field’s estimation parameter, use the ICM model to extract the motion object, consequently the process of segmentation is finished. Finally, the segmentation methods of ST - MRF and the Bayesian combined with ST - MRF were analyzed. Experimental results: the segmentation time in Bayesian combined with ST-MRF algorithm is shorter than in ST-MRF, and the computing workload is small, especially in the heavy traffic dynamic scenes the method also can achieve better segmentation effect.

The performance improvement of automatic classification among obstructive lung diseases on the basis of the features of shape analysis, in addition to texture analysis at HRCT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Youngjoo; Kim, Namkug; Seo, Joon Beom; Lee, JuneGoo; Kang, Suk Ho

2007-03-01

In this paper, we proposed novel shape features to improve classification performance of differentiating obstructive lung diseases, based on HRCT (High Resolution Computerized Tomography) images. The images were selected from HRCT images, obtained from 82 subjects. For each image, two experienced radiologists selected rectangular ROIs with various sizes (16x16, 32x32, and 64x64 pixels), representing each disease or normal lung parenchyma. Besides thirteen textural features, we employed additional seven shape features; cluster shape features, and Top-hat transform features. To evaluate the contribution of shape features for differentiation of obstructive lung diseases, several experiments were conducted with two different types of classifiers and various ROI sizes. For automated classification, the Bayesian classifier and support vector machine (SVM) were implemented. To assess the performance and cross-validation of the system, 5-folding method was used. In comparison to employing only textural features, adding shape features yields significant enhancement of overall sensitivity(5.9, 5.4, 4.4% in the Bayesian and 9.0, 7.3, 5.3% in the SVM), in the order of ROI size 16x16, 32x32, 64x64 pixels, respectively (t-test, p<0.01). Moreover, this enhancement was largely due to the improvement on class-specific sensitivity of mild centrilobular emphysema and bronchiolitis obliterans which are most hard to differentiate for radiologists. According to these experimental results, adding shape features to conventional texture features is much useful to improve classification performance of obstructive lung diseases in both Bayesian and SVM classifiers.

Validation of Bayesian analysis of compartmental kinetic models in medical imaging.

PubMed

Sitek, Arkadiusz; Li, Quanzheng; El Fakhri, Georges; Alpert, Nathaniel M

2016-10-01

Kinetic compartmental analysis is frequently used to compute physiologically relevant quantitative values from time series of images. In this paper, a new approach based on Bayesian analysis to obtain information about these parameters is presented and validated. The closed-form of the posterior distribution of kinetic parameters is derived with a hierarchical prior to model the standard deviation of normally distributed noise. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used for numerical estimation of the posterior distribution. Computer simulations of the kinetics of F18-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) are used to demonstrate drawing statistical inferences about kinetic parameters and to validate the theory and implementation. Additionally, point estimates of kinetic parameters and covariance of those estimates are determined using the classical non-linear least squares approach. Posteriors obtained using methods proposed in this work are accurate as no significant deviation from the expected shape of the posterior was found (one-sided P>0.08). It is demonstrated that the results obtained by the standard non-linear least-square methods fail to provide accurate estimation of uncertainty for the same data set (P<0.0001). The results of this work validate new methods for a computer simulations of FDG kinetics. Results show that in situations where the classical approach fails in accurate estimation of uncertainty, Bayesian estimation provides an accurate information about the uncertainties in the parameters. Although a particular example of FDG kinetics was used in the paper, the methods can be extended for different pharmaceuticals and imaging modalities. Copyright © 2016 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Deep Learning with Hierarchical Convolutional Factor Analysis

PubMed Central

Chen, Bo; Polatkan, Gungor; Sapiro, Guillermo; Blei, David; Dunson, David; Carin, Lawrence

2013-01-01

Unsupervised multi-layered (“deep”) models are considered for general data, with a particular focus on imagery. The model is represented using a hierarchical convolutional factor-analysis construction, with sparse factor loadings and scores. The computation of layer-dependent model parameters is implemented within a Bayesian setting, employing a Gibbs sampler and variational Bayesian (VB) analysis, that explicitly exploit the convolutional nature of the expansion. In order to address large-scale and streaming data, an online version of VB is also developed. The number of basis functions or dictionary elements at each layer is inferred from the data, based on a beta-Bernoulli implementation of the Indian buffet process. Example results are presented for several image-processing applications, with comparisons to related models in the literature. PMID:23787342

3D image restoration for confocal microscopy: toward a wavelet deconvolution for the study of complex biological structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boutet de Monvel, Jacques; Le Calvez, Sophie; Ulfendahl, Mats

2000-05-01

Image restoration algorithms provide efficient tools for recovering part of the information lost in the imaging process of a microscope. We describe recent progress in the application of deconvolution to confocal microscopy. The point spread function of a Biorad-MRC1024 confocal microscope was measured under various imaging conditions, and used to process 3D-confocal images acquired in an intact preparation of the inner ear developed at Karolinska Institutet. Using these experiments we investigate the application of denoising methods based on wavelet analysis as a natural regularization of the deconvolution process. Within the Bayesian approach to image restoration, we compare wavelet denoising with the use of a maximum entropy constraint as another natural regularization method. Numerical experiments performed with test images show a clear advantage of the wavelet denoising approach, allowing to `cool down' the image with respect to the signal, while suppressing much of the fine-scale artifacts appearing during deconvolution due to the presence of noise, incomplete knowledge of the point spread function, or undersampling problems. We further describe a natural development of this approach, which consists of performing the Bayesian inference directly in the wavelet domain.

Whole Organism High-Content Screening by Label-Free, Image-Based Bayesian Classification for Parasitic Diseases

PubMed Central

Paveley, Ross A.; Mansour, Nuha R.; Hallyburton, Irene; Bleicher, Leo S.; Benn, Alex E.; Mikic, Ivana; Guidi, Alessandra; Gilbert, Ian H.; Hopkins, Andrew L.; Bickle, Quentin D.

2012-01-01

Sole reliance on one drug, Praziquantel, for treatment and control of schistosomiasis raises concerns about development of widespread resistance, prompting renewed interest in the discovery of new anthelmintics. To discover new leads we designed an automated label-free, high content-based, high throughput screen (HTS) to assess drug-induced effects on in vitro cultured larvae (schistosomula) using bright-field imaging. Automatic image analysis and Bayesian prediction models define morphological damage, hit/non-hit prediction and larval phenotype characterization. Motility was also assessed from time-lapse images. In screening a 10,041 compound library the HTS correctly detected 99.8% of the hits scored visually. A proportion of these larval hits were also active in an adult worm ex-vivo screen and are the subject of ongoing studies. The method allows, for the first time, screening of large compound collections against schistosomes and the methods are adaptable to other whole organism and cell-based screening by morphology and motility phenotyping. PMID:22860151

Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.

PubMed

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.

Research on Bayes matting algorithm based on Gaussian mixture model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quan, Wei; Jiang, Shan; Han, Cheng; Zhang, Chao; Jiang, Zhengang

2015-12-01

The digital matting problem is a classical problem of imaging. It aims at separating non-rectangular foreground objects from a background image, and compositing with a new background image. Accurate matting determines the quality of the compositing image. A Bayesian matting Algorithm Based on Gaussian Mixture Model is proposed to solve this matting problem. Firstly, the traditional Bayesian framework is improved by introducing Gaussian mixture model. Then, a weighting factor is added in order to suppress the noises of the compositing images. Finally, the effect is further improved by regulating the user's input. This algorithm is applied to matting jobs of classical images. The results are compared to the traditional Bayesian method. It is shown that our algorithm has better performance in detail such as hair. Our algorithm eliminates the noise well. And it is very effectively in dealing with the kind of work, such as interested objects with intricate boundaries.

Multi-Objective data analysis using Bayesian Inference for MagLIF experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knapp, Patrick; Glinksy, Michael; Evans, Matthew; Gom, Matth; Han, Stephanie; Harding, Eric; Slutz, Steve; Hahn, Kelly; Harvey-Thompson, Adam; Geissel, Matthias; Ampleford, David; Jennings, Christopher; Schmit, Paul; Smith, Ian; Schwarz, Jens; Peterson, Kyle; Jones, Brent; Rochau, Gregory; Sinars, Daniel

2017-10-01

The MagLIF concept has recently demonstrated Gbar pressures and confinement of charged fusion products at stagnation. We present a new analysis methodology that allows for integration of multiple diagnostics including nuclear, x-ray imaging, and x-ray power to determine the temperature, pressure, liner areal density, and mix fraction. A simplified hot-spot model is used with a Bayesian inference network to determine the most probable model parameters that describe the observations while simultaneously revealing the principal uncertainties in the analysis. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.

Robust Bayesian Fluorescence Lifetime Estimation, Decay Model Selection and Instrument Response Determination for Low-Intensity FLIM Imaging

PubMed Central

Rowley, Mark I.; Coolen, Anthonius C. C.; Vojnovic, Borivoj; Barber, Paul R.

2016-01-01

We present novel Bayesian methods for the analysis of exponential decay data that exploit the evidence carried by every detected decay event and enables robust extension to advanced processing. Our algorithms are presented in the context of fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM) and particular attention has been paid to model the time-domain system (based on time-correlated single photon counting) with unprecedented accuracy. We present estimates of decay parameters for mono- and bi-exponential systems, offering up to a factor of two improvement in accuracy compared to previous popular techniques. Results of the analysis of synthetic and experimental data are presented, and areas where the superior precision of our techniques can be exploited in Förster Resonance Energy Transfer (FRET) experiments are described. Furthermore, we demonstrate two advanced processing methods: decay model selection to choose between differing models such as mono- and bi-exponential, and the simultaneous estimation of instrument and decay parameters. PMID:27355322

A Bayesian Framework for Human Body Pose Tracking from Depth Image Sequences

PubMed Central

Zhu, Youding; Fujimura, Kikuo

2010-01-01

This paper addresses the problem of accurate and robust tracking of 3D human body pose from depth image sequences. Recovering the large number of degrees of freedom in human body movements from a depth image sequence is challenging due to the need to resolve the depth ambiguity caused by self-occlusions and the difficulty to recover from tracking failure. Human body poses could be estimated through model fitting using dense correspondences between depth data and an articulated human model (local optimization method). Although it usually achieves a high accuracy due to dense correspondences, it may fail to recover from tracking failure. Alternately, human pose may be reconstructed by detecting and tracking human body anatomical landmarks (key-points) based on low-level depth image analysis. While this method (key-point based method) is robust and recovers from tracking failure, its pose estimation accuracy depends solely on image-based localization accuracy of key-points. To address these limitations, we present a flexible Bayesian framework for integrating pose estimation results obtained by methods based on key-points and local optimization. Experimental results are shown and performance comparison is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. PMID:22399933

Assessment of myocardial metabolic rate of glucose by means of Bayesian ICA and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in small animal PET imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berradja, Khadidja; Boughanmi, Nabil

2016-09-01

In dynamic cardiac PET FDG studies the assessment of myocardial metabolic rate of glucose (MMRG) requires the knowledge of the blood input function (IF). IF can be obtained by manual or automatic blood sampling and cross calibrated with PET. These procedures are cumbersome, invasive and generate uncertainties. The IF is contaminated by spillover of radioactivity from the adjacent myocardium and this could cause important error in the estimated MMRG. In this study, we show that the IF can be extracted from the images in a rat heart study with 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) by means of Independent Component Analysis (ICA) based on Bayesian theory and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling method (BICA). Images of the heart from rats were acquired with the Sherbrooke small animal PET scanner. A region of interest (ROI) was drawn around the rat image and decomposed into blood and tissue using BICA. The Statistical study showed that there is a significant difference (p < 0.05) between MMRG obtained with IF extracted by BICA with respect to IF extracted from measured images corrupted with spillover.

Nonlocal means-based speckle filtering for ultrasound images

PubMed Central

Coupé, Pierrick; Hellier, Pierre; Kervrann, Charles; Barillot, Christian

2009-01-01

In image processing, restoration is expected to improve the qualitative inspection of the image and the performance of quantitative image analysis techniques. In this paper, an adaptation of the Non Local (NL-) means filter is proposed for speckle reduction in ultrasound (US) images. Originally developed for additive white Gaussian noise, we propose to use a Bayesian framework to derive a NL-means filter adapted to a relevant ultrasound noise model. Quantitative results on synthetic data show the performances of the proposed method compared to well-established and state-of-the-art methods. Results on real images demonstrate that the proposed method is able to preserve accurately edges and structural details of the image. PMID:19482578

Comparison Analysis of Recognition Algorithms of Forest-Cover Objects on Hyperspectral Air-Borne and Space-Borne Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozoderov, V. V.; Kondranin, T. V.; Dmitriev, E. V.

2017-12-01

The basic model for the recognition of natural and anthropogenic objects using their spectral and textural features is described in the problem of hyperspectral air-borne and space-borne imagery processing. The model is based on improvements of the Bayesian classifier that is a computational procedure of statistical decision making in machine-learning methods of pattern recognition. The principal component method is implemented to decompose the hyperspectral measurements on the basis of empirical orthogonal functions. Application examples are shown of various modifications of the Bayesian classifier and Support Vector Machine method. Examples are provided of comparing these classifiers and a metrical classifier that operates on finding the minimal Euclidean distance between different points and sets in the multidimensional feature space. A comparison is also carried out with the " K-weighted neighbors" method that is close to the nonparametric Bayesian classifier.

Bayesian switching factor analysis for estimating time-varying functional connectivity in fMRI.

PubMed

Taghia, Jalil; Ryali, Srikanth; Chen, Tianwen; Supekar, Kaustubh; Cai, Weidong; Menon, Vinod

2017-07-15

There is growing interest in understanding the dynamical properties of functional interactions between distributed brain regions. However, robust estimation of temporal dynamics from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data remains challenging due to limitations in extant multivariate methods for modeling time-varying functional interactions between multiple brain areas. Here, we develop a Bayesian generative model for fMRI time-series within the framework of hidden Markov models (HMMs). The model is a dynamic variant of the static factor analysis model (Ghahramani and Beal, 2000). We refer to this model as Bayesian switching factor analysis (BSFA) as it integrates factor analysis into a generative HMM in a unified Bayesian framework. In BSFA, brain dynamic functional networks are represented by latent states which are learnt from the data. Crucially, BSFA is a generative model which estimates the temporal evolution of brain states and transition probabilities between states as a function of time. An attractive feature of BSFA is the automatic determination of the number of latent states via Bayesian model selection arising from penalization of excessively complex models. Key features of BSFA are validated using extensive simulations on carefully designed synthetic data. We further validate BSFA using fingerprint analysis of multisession resting-state fMRI data from the Human Connectome Project (HCP). Our results show that modeling temporal dependencies in the generative model of BSFA results in improved fingerprinting of individual participants. Finally, we apply BSFA to elucidate the dynamic functional organization of the salience, central-executive, and default mode networks-three core neurocognitive systems with central role in cognitive and affective information processing (Menon, 2011). Across two HCP sessions, we demonstrate a high level of dynamic interactions between these networks and determine that the salience network has the highest temporal flexibility among the three networks. Our proposed methods provide a novel and powerful generative model for investigating dynamic brain connectivity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian image reconstruction for improving detection performance of muon tomography.

PubMed

Wang, Guobao; Schultz, Larry J; Qi, Jinyi

2009-05-01

Muon tomography is a novel technology that is being developed for detecting high-Z materials in vehicles or cargo containers. Maximum likelihood methods have been developed for reconstructing the scattering density image from muon measurements. However, the instability of maximum likelihood estimation often results in noisy images and low detectability of high-Z targets. In this paper, we propose using regularization to improve the image quality of muon tomography. We formulate the muon reconstruction problem in a Bayesian framework by introducing a prior distribution on scattering density images. An iterative shrinkage algorithm is derived to maximize the log posterior distribution. At each iteration, the algorithm obtains the maximum a posteriori update by shrinking an unregularized maximum likelihood update. Inverse quadratic shrinkage functions are derived for generalized Laplacian priors and inverse cubic shrinkage functions are derived for generalized Gaussian priors. Receiver operating characteristic studies using simulated data demonstrate that the Bayesian reconstruction can greatly improve the detection performance of muon tomography.

Remote Sensing Image Classification Applied to the First National Geographical Information Census of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Xin; Wen, Zongyong; Zhu, Zhaorong; Xia, Qiang; Shun, Lan

2016-06-01

Image classification will still be a long way in the future, although it has gone almost half a century. In fact, researchers have gained many fruits in the image classification domain, but there is still a long distance between theory and practice. However, some new methods in the artificial intelligence domain will be absorbed into the image classification domain and draw on the strength of each to offset the weakness of the other, which will open up a new prospect. Usually, networks play the role of a high-level language, as is seen in Artificial Intelligence and statistics, because networks are used to build complex model from simple components. These years, Bayesian Networks, one of probabilistic networks, are a powerful data mining technique for handling uncertainty in complex domains. In this paper, we apply Tree Augmented Naive Bayesian Networks (TAN) to texture classification of High-resolution remote sensing images and put up a new method to construct the network topology structure in terms of training accuracy based on the training samples. Since 2013, China government has started the first national geographical information census project, which mainly interprets geographical information based on high-resolution remote sensing images. Therefore, this paper tries to apply Bayesian network to remote sensing image classification, in order to improve image interpretation in the first national geographical information census project. In the experiment, we choose some remote sensing images in Beijing. Experimental results demonstrate TAN outperform than Naive Bayesian Classifier (NBC) and Maximum Likelihood Classification Method (MLC) in the overall classification accuracy. In addition, the proposed method can reduce the workload of field workers and improve the work efficiency. Although it is time consuming, it will be an attractive and effective method for assisting office operation of image interpretation.

Bayesian network analysis revealed the connectivity difference of the default mode network from the resting-state to task-state

PubMed Central

Wu, Xia; Yu, Xinyu; Yao, Li; Li, Rui

2014-01-01

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies have converged to reveal the default mode network (DMN), a constellation of regions that display co-activation during resting-state but co-deactivation during attention-demanding tasks in the brain. Here, we employed a Bayesian network (BN) analysis method to construct a directed effective connectivity model of the DMN and compared the organizational architecture and interregional directed connections under both resting-state and task-state. The analysis results indicated that the DMN was consistently organized into two closely interacting subsystems in both resting-state and task-state. The directed connections between DMN regions, however, changed significantly from the resting-state to task-state condition. The results suggest that the DMN intrinsically maintains a relatively stable structure whether at rest or performing tasks but has different information processing mechanisms under varied states. PMID:25309414

Bayesian Image Segmentations by Potts Prior and Loopy Belief Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Kazuyuki; Kataoka, Shun; Yasuda, Muneki; Waizumi, Yuji; Hsu, Chiou-Ting

2014-12-01

This paper presents a Bayesian image segmentation model based on Potts prior and loopy belief propagation. The proposed Bayesian model involves several terms, including the pairwise interactions of Potts models, and the average vectors and covariant matrices of Gauss distributions in color image modeling. These terms are often referred to as hyperparameters in statistical machine learning theory. In order to determine these hyperparameters, we propose a new scheme for hyperparameter estimation based on conditional maximization of entropy in the Potts prior. The algorithm is given based on loopy belief propagation. In addition, we compare our conditional maximum entropy framework with the conventional maximum likelihood framework, and also clarify how the first order phase transitions in loopy belief propagations for Potts models influence our hyperparameter estimation procedures.

Feasibility of streamlining an interactive Bayesian-based diagnostic support tool designed for clinical practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Po-Hao; Botzolakis, Emmanuel; Mohan, Suyash; Bryan, R. N.; Cook, Tessa

2016-03-01

In radiology, diagnostic errors occur either through the failure of detection or incorrect interpretation. Errors are estimated to occur in 30-35% of all exams and contribute to 40-54% of medical malpractice litigations. In this work, we focus on reducing incorrect interpretation of known imaging features. Existing literature categorizes cognitive bias leading a radiologist to an incorrect diagnosis despite having correctly recognized the abnormal imaging features: anchoring bias, framing effect, availability bias, and premature closure. Computational methods make a unique contribution, as they do not exhibit the same cognitive biases as a human. Bayesian networks formalize the diagnostic process. They modify pre-test diagnostic probabilities using clinical and imaging features, arriving at a post-test probability for each possible diagnosis. To translate Bayesian networks to clinical practice, we implemented an entirely web-based open-source software tool. In this tool, the radiologist first selects a network of choice (e.g. basal ganglia). Then, large, clearly labeled buttons displaying salient imaging features are displayed on the screen serving both as a checklist and for input. As the radiologist inputs the value of an extracted imaging feature, the conditional probabilities of each possible diagnosis are updated. The software presents its level of diagnostic discrimination using a Pareto distribution chart, updated with each additional imaging feature. Active collaboration with the clinical radiologist is a feasible approach to software design and leads to design decisions closely coupling the complex mathematics of conditional probability in Bayesian networks with practice.

Bayesian Analysis of Hmi Images and Comparison to Tsi Variations and MWO Image Observables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, D. G.; Ulrich, R. K.; Beck, J.; Tran, T. V.

2015-12-01

We have previously applied the Bayesian automatic classification system AutoClass to solar magnetogram and intensity images from the 150 Foot Solar Tower at Mount Wilson to identify classes of solar surface features associated with variations in total solar irradiance (TSI) and, using those identifications, modeled TSI time series with improved accuracy (r > 0.96). (Ulrich, et al, 2010) AutoClass identifies classes by a two-step process in which it: (1) finds, without human supervision, a set of class definitions based on specified attributes of a sample of the image data pixels, such as magnetic field and intensity in the case of MWO images, and (2) applies the class definitions thus found to new data sets to identify automatically in them the classes found in the sample set. HMI high resolution images capture four observables-magnetic field, continuum intensity, line depth and line width-in contrast to MWO's two observables-magnetic field and intensity. In this study, we apply AutoClass to the HMI observables for images from June, 2010 to December, 2014 to identify solar surface feature classes. We use contemporaneous TSI measurements to determine whether and how variations in the HMI classes are related to TSI variations and compare the characteristic statistics of the HMI classes to those found from MWO images. We also attempt to derive scale factors between the HMI and MWO magnetic and intensity observables.The ability to categorize automatically surface features in the HMI images holds out the promise of consistent, relatively quick and manageable analysis of the large quantity of data available in these images. Given that the classes found in MWO images using AutoClass have been found to improve modeling of TSI, application of AutoClass to the more complex HMI images should enhance understanding of the physical processes at work in solar surface features and their implications for the solar-terrestrial environment.Ulrich, R.K., Parker, D, Bertello, L. and Boyden, J. 2010, Solar Phys. , 261 , 11.

Assessment of CT image quality using a Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reginatto, M.; Anton, M.; Elster, C.

2017-08-01

One of the most promising approaches for evaluating CT image quality is task-specific quality assessment. This involves a simplified version of a clinical task, e.g. deciding whether an image belongs to the class of images that contain the signature of a lesion or not. Task-specific quality assessment can be done by model observers, which are mathematical procedures that carry out the classification task. The most widely used figure of merit for CT image quality is the area under the ROC curve (AUC), a quantity which characterizes the performance of a given model observer. In order to estimate AUC from a finite sample of images, different approaches from classical statistics have been suggested. The goal of this paper is to introduce task-specific quality assessment of CT images to metrology and to propose a novel Bayesian estimation of AUC for the channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) applied to the task of detecting a lesion at a known image location. It is assumed that signal-present and signal-absent images follow multivariate normal distributions with the same covariance matrix. The Bayesian approach results in a posterior distribution for the AUC of the CHO which provides in addition a complete characterization of the uncertainty of this figure of merit. The approach is illustrated by its application to both simulated and experimental data.

A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A. G.

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are…

Bayesian data analysis in population ecology: motivations, methods, and benefits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert

2016-01-01

During the 20th century ecologists largely relied on the frequentist system of inference for the analysis of their data. However, in the past few decades ecologists have become increasingly interested in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this article I provide guidance to ecologists who would like to decide whether Bayesian methods can be used to improve their conclusions and predictions. I begin by providing a concise summary of Bayesian methods of analysis, including a comparison of differences between Bayesian and frequentist approaches to inference when using hierarchical models. Next I provide a list of problems where Bayesian methods of analysis may arguably be preferred over frequentist methods. These problems are usually encountered in analyses based on hierarchical models of data. I describe the essentials required for applying modern methods of Bayesian computation, and I use real-world examples to illustrate these methods. I conclude by summarizing what I perceive to be the main strengths and weaknesses of using Bayesian methods to solve ecological inference problems.

Computational statistics using the Bayesian Inference Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weinberg, Martin D.

2013-09-01

This paper introduces the Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE), a general parallel, optimized software package for parameter inference and model selection. This package is motivated by the analysis needs of modern astronomical surveys and the need to organize and reuse expensive derived data. The BIE is the first platform for computational statistics designed explicitly to enable Bayesian update and model comparison for astronomical problems. Bayesian update is based on the representation of high-dimensional posterior distributions using metric-ball-tree based kernel density estimation. Among its algorithmic offerings, the BIE emphasizes hybrid tempered Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes that robustly sample multimodal posterior distributions in high-dimensional parameter spaces. Moreover, the BIE implements a full persistence or serialization system that stores the full byte-level image of the running inference and previously characterized posterior distributions for later use. Two new algorithms to compute the marginal likelihood from the posterior distribution, developed for and implemented in the BIE, enable model comparison for complex models and data sets. Finally, the BIE was designed to be a collaborative platform for applying Bayesian methodology to astronomy. It includes an extensible object-oriented and easily extended framework that implements every aspect of the Bayesian inference. By providing a variety of statistical algorithms for all phases of the inference problem, a scientist may explore a variety of approaches with a single model and data implementation. Additional technical details and download details are available from http://www.astro.umass.edu/bie. The BIE is distributed under the GNU General Public License.

The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective.

PubMed

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

In the practice of data analysis, there is a conceptual distinction between hypothesis testing, on the one hand, and estimation with quantified uncertainty on the other. Among frequentists in psychology, a shift of emphasis from hypothesis testing to estimation has been dubbed "the New Statistics" (Cumming 2014). A second conceptual distinction is between frequentist methods and Bayesian methods. Our main goal in this article is to explain how Bayesian methods achieve the goals of the New Statistics better than frequentist methods. The article reviews frequentist and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and to estimation with confidence or credible intervals. The article also describes Bayesian approaches to meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials, and power analysis.

Application of Bayesian configural frequency analysis (BCFA) to determine characteristics user and non-user motor X

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mawardi, Muhamad Iqbal; Padmadisastra, Septiadi; Tantular, Bertho

2018-03-01

Configural Frequency Analysis is a method for cell-wise testing in contingency tables for exploratory search type and antitype, that can see the existence of discrepancy on the model by existence of a significant difference between the frequency of observation and frequency of expectation. This analysis focuses on whether or not the interaction among categories from different variables, and not the interaction among variables. One of the extensions of CFA method is Bayesian CFA, this alternative method pursue the same goal as frequentist version of CFA with the advantage that adjustment of the experiment-wise significance level α is not necessary and test whether groups of types and antitypes form composite types or composite antitypes. Hence, this research will present the concept of the Bayesian CFA and how it works for the real data. The data on this paper is based on case studies in a company about decrease Brand Awareness & Image motor X on Top Of Mind Unit indicator in Cirebon City for user 30.8% and non user 9.8%. From the result of B-CFA have four characteristics from deviation, one of the four characteristics above that is the configuration 2212 need more attention by company to determine promotion strategy to maintain and improve Top Of Mind Unit in Cirebon City.

Is probabilistic bias analysis approximately Bayesian?

PubMed Central

MacLehose, Richard F.; Gustafson, Paul

2011-01-01

Case-control studies are particularly susceptible to differential exposure misclassification when exposure status is determined following incident case status. Probabilistic bias analysis methods have been developed as ways to adjust standard effect estimates based on the sensitivity and specificity of exposure misclassification. The iterative sampling method advocated in probabilistic bias analysis bears a distinct resemblance to a Bayesian adjustment; however, it is not identical. Furthermore, without a formal theoretical framework (Bayesian or frequentist), the results of a probabilistic bias analysis remain somewhat difficult to interpret. We describe, both theoretically and empirically, the extent to which probabilistic bias analysis can be viewed as approximately Bayesian. While the differences between probabilistic bias analysis and Bayesian approaches to misclassification can be substantial, these situations often involve unrealistic prior specifications and are relatively easy to detect. Outside of these special cases, probabilistic bias analysis and Bayesian approaches to exposure misclassification in case-control studies appear to perform equally well. PMID:22157311

Uncertainty analysis of depth predictions from seismic reflection data using Bayesian statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michelioudakis, Dimitrios G.; Hobbs, Richard W.; Caiado, Camila C. S.

2018-03-01

Estimating the depths of target horizons from seismic reflection data is an important task in exploration geophysics. To constrain these depths we need a reliable and accurate velocity model. Here, we build an optimum 2D seismic reflection data processing flow focused on pre - stack deghosting filters and velocity model building and apply Bayesian methods, including Gaussian process emulation and Bayesian History Matching (BHM), to estimate the uncertainties of the depths of key horizons near the borehole DSDP-258 located in the Mentelle Basin, south west of Australia, and compare the results with the drilled core from that well. Following this strategy, the tie between the modelled and observed depths from DSDP-258 core was in accordance with the ± 2σ posterior credibility intervals and predictions for depths to key horizons were made for the two new drill sites, adjacent the existing borehole of the area. The probabilistic analysis allowed us to generate multiple realizations of pre-stack depth migrated images, these can be directly used to better constrain interpretation and identify potential risk at drill sites. The method will be applied to constrain the drilling targets for the upcoming International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP), leg 369.

Uncertainty analysis of depth predictions from seismic reflection data using Bayesian statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michelioudakis, Dimitrios G.; Hobbs, Richard W.; Caiado, Camila C. S.

2018-06-01

Estimating the depths of target horizons from seismic reflection data is an important task in exploration geophysics. To constrain these depths we need a reliable and accurate velocity model. Here, we build an optimum 2-D seismic reflection data processing flow focused on pre-stack deghosting filters and velocity model building and apply Bayesian methods, including Gaussian process emulation and Bayesian History Matching, to estimate the uncertainties of the depths of key horizons near the Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) borehole 258 (DSDP-258) located in the Mentelle Basin, southwest of Australia, and compare the results with the drilled core from that well. Following this strategy, the tie between the modelled and observed depths from DSDP-258 core was in accordance with the ±2σ posterior credibility intervals and predictions for depths to key horizons were made for the two new drill sites, adjacent to the existing borehole of the area. The probabilistic analysis allowed us to generate multiple realizations of pre-stack depth migrated images, these can be directly used to better constrain interpretation and identify potential risk at drill sites. The method will be applied to constrain the drilling targets for the upcoming International Ocean Discovery Program, leg 369.

Bayesian Mediation Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

2009-01-01

In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

Palmprint identification using FRIT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kisku, D. R.; Rattani, A.; Gupta, P.; Hwang, C. J.; Sing, J. K.

2011-06-01

This paper proposes a palmprint identification system using Finite Ridgelet Transform (FRIT) and Bayesian classifier. FRIT is applied on the ROI (region of interest), which is extracted from palmprint image, to extract a set of distinctive features from palmprint image. These features are used to classify with the help of Bayesian classifier. The proposed system has been tested on CASIA and IIT Kanpur palmprint databases. The experimental results reveal better performance compared to all well known systems.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brewer, Brendon J.; Foreman-Mackey, Daniel; Hogg, David W., E-mail: bj.brewer@auckland.ac.nz

We present and implement a probabilistic (Bayesian) method for producing catalogs from images of stellar fields. The method is capable of inferring the number of sources N in the image and can also handle the challenges introduced by noise, overlapping sources, and an unknown point-spread function. The luminosity function of the stars can also be inferred, even when the precise luminosity of each star is uncertain, via the use of a hierarchical Bayesian model. The computational feasibility of the method is demonstrated on two simulated images with different numbers of stars. We find that our method successfully recovers the inputmore » parameter values along with principled uncertainties even when the field is crowded. We also compare our results with those obtained from the SExtractor software. While the two approaches largely agree about the fluxes of the bright stars, the Bayesian approach provides more accurate inferences about the faint stars and the number of stars, particularly in the crowded case.« less

Guided SAR image despeckling with probabilistic non local weights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gokul, Jithin; Nair, Madhu S.; Rajan, Jeny

2017-12-01

SAR images are generally corrupted by granular disturbances called speckle, which makes visual analysis and detail extraction a difficult task. Non Local despeckling techniques with probabilistic similarity has been a recent trend in SAR despeckling. To achieve effective speckle suppression without compromising detail preservation, we propose an improvement for the existing Generalized Guided Filter with Bayesian Non-Local Means (GGF-BNLM) method. The proposed method (Guided SAR Image Despeckling with Probabilistic Non Local Weights) replaces parametric constants based on heuristics in GGF-BNLM method with dynamically derived values based on the image statistics for weight computation. Proposed changes make GGF-BNLM method adaptive and as a result, significant improvement is achieved in terms of performance. Experimental analysis on SAR images shows excellent speckle reduction without compromising feature preservation when compared to GGF-BNLM method. Results are also compared with other state-of-the-art and classic SAR depseckling techniques to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Trans-dimensional MCMC methods for fully automatic motion analysis in tagged MRI.

PubMed

Smal, Ihor; Carranza-Herrezuelo, Noemí; Klein, Stefan; Niessen, Wiro; Meijering, Erik

2011-01-01

Tagged magnetic resonance imaging (tMRI) is a well-known noninvasive method allowing quantitative analysis of regional heart dynamics. Its clinical use has so far been limited, in part due to the lack of robustness and accuracy of existing tag tracking algorithms in dealing with low (and intrinsically time-varying) image quality. In this paper, we propose a novel probabilistic method for tag tracking, implemented by means of Bayesian particle filtering and a trans-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, which efficiently combines information about the imaging process and tag appearance with prior knowledge about the heart dynamics obtained by means of non-rigid image registration. Experiments using synthetic image data (with ground truth) and real data (with expert manual annotation) from preclinical (small animal) and clinical (human) studies confirm that the proposed method yields higher consistency, accuracy, and intrinsic tag reliability assessment in comparison with other frequently used tag tracking methods.

Smile detectors correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuksel, Kivanc; Chang, Xin; Skarbek, Władysław

2017-08-01

The novel smile recognition algorithm is presented based on extraction of 68 facial salient points (fp68) using the ensemble of regression trees. The smile detector exploits the Support Vector Machine linear model. It is trained with few hundreds exemplar images by SVM algorithm working in 136 dimensional space. It is shown by the strict statistical data analysis that such geometric detector strongly depends on the geometry of mouth opening area, measured by triangulation of outer lip contour. To this goal two Bayesian detectors were developed and compared with SVM detector. The first uses the mouth area in 2D image, while the second refers to the mouth area in 3D animated face model. The 3D modeling is based on Candide-3 model and it is performed in real time along with three smile detectors and statistics estimators. The mouth area/Bayesian detectors exhibit high correlation with fp68/SVM detector in a range [0:8; 1:0], depending mainly on light conditions and individual features with advantage of 3D technique, especially in hard light conditions.

Bayesian depth estimation from monocular natural images.

PubMed

Su, Che-Chun; Cormack, Lawrence K; Bovik, Alan C

2017-05-01

Estimating an accurate and naturalistic dense depth map from a single monocular photographic image is a difficult problem. Nevertheless, human observers have little difficulty understanding the depth structure implied by photographs. Two-dimensional (2D) images of the real-world environment contain significant statistical information regarding the three-dimensional (3D) structure of the world that the vision system likely exploits to compute perceived depth, monocularly as well as binocularly. Toward understanding how this might be accomplished, we propose a Bayesian model of monocular depth computation that recovers detailed 3D scene structures by extracting reliable, robust, depth-sensitive statistical features from single natural images. These features are derived using well-accepted univariate natural scene statistics (NSS) models and recent bivariate/correlation NSS models that describe the relationships between 2D photographic images and their associated depth maps. This is accomplished by building a dictionary of canonical local depth patterns from which NSS features are extracted as prior information. The dictionary is used to create a multivariate Gaussian mixture (MGM) likelihood model that associates local image features with depth patterns. A simple Bayesian predictor is then used to form spatial depth estimates. The depth results produced by the model, despite its simplicity, correlate well with ground-truth depths measured by a current-generation terrestrial light detection and ranging (LIDAR) scanner. Such a strong form of statistical depth information could be used by the visual system when creating overall estimated depth maps incorporating stereopsis, accommodation, and other conditions. Indeed, even in isolation, the Bayesian predictor delivers depth estimates that are competitive with state-of-the-art "computer vision" methods that utilize highly engineered image features and sophisticated machine learning algorithms.

Parallelized Bayesian inversion for three-dimensional dental X-ray imaging.

PubMed

Kolehmainen, Ville; Vanne, Antti; Siltanen, Samuli; Järvenpää, Seppo; Kaipio, Jari P; Lassas, Matti; Kalke, Martti

2006-02-01

Diagnostic and operational tasks based on dental radiology often require three-dimensional (3-D) information that is not available in a single X-ray projection image. Comprehensive 3-D information about tissues can be obtained by computerized tomography (CT) imaging. However, in dental imaging a conventional CT scan may not be available or practical because of high radiation dose, low-resolution or the cost of the CT scanner equipment. In this paper, we consider a novel type of 3-D imaging modality for dental radiology. We consider situations in which projection images of the teeth are taken from a few sparsely distributed projection directions using the dentist's regular (digital) X-ray equipment and the 3-D X-ray attenuation function is reconstructed. A complication in these experiments is that the reconstruction of the 3-D structure based on a few projection images becomes an ill-posed inverse problem. Bayesian inversion is a well suited framework for reconstruction from such incomplete data. In Bayesian inversion, the ill-posed reconstruction problem is formulated in a well-posed probabilistic form in which a priori information is used to compensate for the incomplete information of the projection data. In this paper we propose a Bayesian method for 3-D reconstruction in dental radiology. The method is partially based on Kolehmainen et al. 2003. The prior model for dental structures consist of a weighted l1 and total variation (TV)-prior together with the positivity prior. The inverse problem is stated as finding the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate. To make the 3-D reconstruction computationally feasible, a parallelized version of an optimization algorithm is implemented for a Beowulf cluster computer. The method is tested with projection data from dental specimens and patient data. Tomosynthetic reconstructions are given as reference for the proposed method.

Enhancement of morphological and vascular features in OCT images using a modified Bayesian residual transform

PubMed Central

Tan, Bingyao; Wong, Alexander; Bizheva, Kostadinka

2018-01-01

A novel image processing algorithm based on a modified Bayesian residual transform (MBRT) was developed for the enhancement of morphological and vascular features in optical coherence tomography (OCT) and OCT angiography (OCTA) images. The MBRT algorithm decomposes the original OCT image into multiple residual images, where each image presents information at a unique scale. Scale selective residual adaptation is used subsequently to enhance morphological features of interest, such as blood vessels and tissue layers, and to suppress irrelevant image features such as noise and motion artefacts. The performance of the proposed MBRT algorithm was tested on a series of cross-sectional and enface OCT and OCTA images of retina and brain tissue that were acquired in-vivo. Results show that the MBRT reduces speckle noise and motion-related imaging artefacts locally, thus improving significantly the contrast and visibility of morphological features in the OCT and OCTA images. PMID:29760996

Prior approval: the growth of Bayesian methods in psychology.

PubMed

Andrews, Mark; Baguley, Thom

2013-02-01

Within the last few years, Bayesian methods of data analysis in psychology have proliferated. In this paper, we briefly review the history or the Bayesian approach to statistics, and consider the implications that Bayesian methods have for the theory and practice of data analysis in psychology.

Bayesian reconstruction and use of anatomical a priori information for emission tomography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bowsher, J.E.; Johnson, V.E.; Turkington, T.G.

1996-10-01

A Bayesian method is presented for simultaneously segmenting and reconstructing emission computed tomography (ECT) images and for incorporating high-resolution, anatomical information into those reconstructions. The anatomical information is often available from other imaging modalities such as computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The Bayesian procedure models the ECT radiopharmaceutical distribution as consisting of regions, such that radiopharmaceutical activity is similar throughout each region. It estimates the number of regions, the mean activity of each region, and the region classification and mean activity of each voxel. Anatomical information is incorporated by assigning higher prior probabilities to ECT segmentations inmore » which each ECT region stays within a single anatomical region. This approach is effective because anatomical tissue type often strongly influences radiopharmaceutical uptake. The Bayesian procedure is evaluated using physically acquired single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) projection data and MRI for the three-dimensional (3-D) Hoffman brain phantom. A clinically realistic count level is used. A cold lesion within the brain phantom is created during the SPECT scan but not during the MRI to demonstrate that the estimation procedure can detect ECT structure that is not present anatomically.« less

Fossil Signatures Using Elemental Abundance Distributions and Bayesian Probabilistic Classification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoover, Richard B.; Storrie-Lombardi, Michael C.

2004-01-01

Elemental abundances (C6, N7, O8, Na11, Mg12, Al3, P15, S16, Cl17, K19, Ca20, Ti22, Mn25, Fe26, and Ni28) were obtained for a set of terrestrial fossils and the rock matrix surrounding them. Principal Component Analysis extracted five factors accounting for the 92.5% of the data variance, i.e. information content, of the elemental abundance data. Hierarchical Cluster Analysis provided unsupervised sample classification distinguishing fossil from matrix samples on the basis of either raw abundances or PCA input that agreed strongly with visual classification. A stochastic, non-linear Artificial Neural Network produced a Bayesian probability of correct sample classification. The results provide a quantitative probabilistic methodology for discriminating terrestrial fossils from the surrounding rock matrix using chemical information. To demonstrate the applicability of these techniques to the assessment of meteoritic samples or in situ extraterrestrial exploration, we present preliminary data on samples of the Orgueil meteorite. In both systems an elemental signature produces target classification decisions remarkably consistent with morphological classification by a human expert using only structural (visual) information. We discuss the possibility of implementing a complexity analysis metric capable of automating certain image analysis and pattern recognition abilities of the human eye using low magnification optical microscopy images and discuss the extension of this technique across multiple scales.

Astrostatistical Analysis in Solar and Stellar Physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenning, David Craig

This dissertation focuses on developing statistical models and methods to address data-analytic challenges in astrostatistics---a growing interdisciplinary field fostering collaborations between statisticians and astrophysicists. The astrostatistics projects we tackle can be divided into two main categories: modeling solar activity and Bayesian analysis of stellar evolution. These categories from Part I and Part II of this dissertation, respectively. The first line of research we pursue involves classification and modeling of evolving solar features. Advances in space-based observatories are increasing both the quality and quantity of solar data, primarily in the form of high-resolution images. To analyze massive streams of solar image data, we develop a science-driven dimension reduction methodology to extract scientifically meaningful features from images. This methodology utilizes mathematical morphology to produce a concise numerical summary of the magnetic flux distribution in solar "active regions'' that (i) is far easier to work with than the source images, (ii) encapsulates scientifically relevant information in a more informative manner than existing schemes (i.e., manual classification schemes), and (iii) is amenable to sophisticated statistical analyses. In a related line of research, we perform a Bayesian analysis of the solar cycle using multiple proxy variables, such as sunspot numbers. We take advantage of patterns and correlations among the proxy variables to model solar activity using data from proxies that have become available more recently, while also taking advantage of the long history of observations of sunspot numbers. This model is an extension of the Yu et al. (2012) Bayesian hierarchical model for the solar cycle that used the sunspot numbers alone. Since proxies have different temporal coverage, we devise a multiple imputation scheme to account for missing data. We find that incorporating multiple proxies reveals important features of the solar cycle that are missed when the model is fit using only the sunspot numbers. In Part II of this dissertation we focus on two related lines of research involving Bayesian analysis of stellar evolution. We first focus on modeling multiple stellar populations in star clusters. It has long been assumed that all star clusters are comprised of single stellar populations---stars that formed at roughly the same time from a common molecular cloud. However, recent studies have produced evidence that some clusters host multiple populations, which has far-reaching scientific implications. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical model for multiple-population star clusters, extending earlier statistical models of stellar evolution (e.g., van Dyk et al. 2009, Stein et al. 2013). We also devise an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to explore the complex posterior distribution. We use numerical studies to demonstrate that our method can recover parameters of multiple-population clusters, and also show how model misspecification can be diagnosed. Our model and computational tools are incorporated into an open-source software suite known as BASE-9. We also explore statistical properties of the estimators and determine that the influence of the prior distribution does not diminish with larger sample sizes, leading to non-standard asymptotics. In a final line of research, we present the first-ever attempt to estimate the carbon fraction of white dwarfs. This quantity has important implications for both astrophysics and fundamental nuclear physics, but is currently unknown. We use a numerical study to demonstrate that assuming an incorrect value for the carbon fraction leads to incorrect white-dwarf ages of star clusters. Finally, we present our attempt to estimate the carbon fraction of the white dwarfs in the well-studied star cluster 47 Tucanae.

A Computational Observer For Performing Contrast-Detail Analysis Of Ultrasound Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, H.; Loew, M. H.

1988-06-01

Contrast-Detail (C/D) analysis allows the quantitative determination of an imaging system's ability to display a range of varying-size targets as a function of contrast. Using this technique, a contrast-detail plot is obtained which can, in theory, be used to compare image quality from one imaging system to another. The C/D plot, however, is usually obtained by using data from human observer readings. We have shown earlier(7) that the performance of human observers in the task of threshold detection of simulated lesions embedded in random ultrasound noise is highly inaccurate and non-reproducible for untrained observers. We present an objective, computational method for the determination of the C/D curve for ultrasound images. This method utilizes digital images of the C/D phantom developed at CDRH, and lesion-detection algorithms that simulate the Bayesian approach using the likelihood function for an ideal observer. We present the results of this method, and discuss the relationship to the human observer and to the comparability of image quality between systems.

Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study is to explore Bayesian model averaging in the propensity score context. Previous research on Bayesian propensity score analysis does not take into account model uncertainty. In this regard, an internally consistent Bayesian framework for model building and estimation must also account for model uncertainty. The…

Spatial Bayesian Latent Factor Regression Modeling of Coordinate-based Meta-analysis Data

PubMed Central

Montagna, Silvia; Wager, Tor; Barrett, Lisa Feldman; Johnson, Timothy D.; Nichols, Thomas E.

2017-01-01

Summary Now over 20 years old, functional MRI (fMRI) has a large and growing literature that is best synthesised with meta-analytic tools. As most authors do not share image data, only the peak activation coordinates (foci) reported in the paper are available for Coordinate-Based Meta-Analysis (CBMA). Neuroimaging meta-analysis is used to 1) identify areas of consistent activation; and 2) build a predictive model of task type or cognitive process for new studies (reverse inference). To simultaneously address these aims, we propose a Bayesian point process hierarchical model for CBMA. We model the foci from each study as a doubly stochastic Poisson process, where the study-specific log intensity function is characterised as a linear combination of a high-dimensional basis set. A sparse representation of the intensities is guaranteed through latent factor modeling of the basis coefficients. Within our framework, it is also possible to account for the effect of study-level covariates (meta-regression), significantly expanding the capabilities of the current neuroimaging meta-analysis methods available. We apply our methodology to synthetic data and neuroimaging meta-analysis datasets. PMID:28498564

Tmax Determined Using a Bayesian Estimation Deconvolution Algorithm Applied to Bolus Tracking Perfusion Imaging: A Digital Phantom Validation Study.

PubMed

Uwano, Ikuko; Sasaki, Makoto; Kudo, Kohsuke; Boutelier, Timothé; Kameda, Hiroyuki; Mori, Futoshi; Yamashita, Fumio

2017-01-10

The Bayesian estimation algorithm improves the precision of bolus tracking perfusion imaging. However, this algorithm cannot directly calculate Tmax, the time scale widely used to identify ischemic penumbra, because Tmax is a non-physiological, artificial index that reflects the tracer arrival delay (TD) and other parameters. We calculated Tmax from the TD and mean transit time (MTT) obtained by the Bayesian algorithm and determined its accuracy in comparison with Tmax obtained by singular value decomposition (SVD) algorithms. The TD and MTT maps were generated by the Bayesian algorithm applied to digital phantoms with time-concentration curves that reflected a range of values for various perfusion metrics using a global arterial input function. Tmax was calculated from the TD and MTT using constants obtained by a linear least-squares fit to Tmax obtained from the two SVD algorithms that showed the best benchmarks in a previous study. Correlations between the Tmax values obtained by the Bayesian and SVD methods were examined. The Bayesian algorithm yielded accurate TD and MTT values relative to the true values of the digital phantom. Tmax calculated from the TD and MTT values with the least-squares fit constants showed excellent correlation (Pearson's correlation coefficient = 0.99) and agreement (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.99) with Tmax obtained from SVD algorithms. Quantitative analyses of Tmax values calculated from Bayesian-estimation algorithm-derived TD and MTT from a digital phantom correlated and agreed well with Tmax values determined using SVD algorithms.

Bayesian analyses of time-interval data for environmental radiation monitoring.

PubMed

Luo, Peng; Sharp, Julia L; DeVol, Timothy A

2013-01-01

Time-interval (time difference between two consecutive pulses) analysis based on the principles of Bayesian inference was investigated for online radiation monitoring. Using experimental and simulated data, Bayesian analysis of time-interval data [Bayesian (ti)] was compared with Bayesian and a conventional frequentist analysis of counts in a fixed count time [Bayesian (cnt) and single interval test (SIT), respectively]. The performances of the three methods were compared in terms of average run length (ARL) and detection probability for several simulated detection scenarios. Experimental data were acquired with a DGF-4C system in list mode. Simulated data were obtained using Monte Carlo techniques to obtain a random sampling of the Poisson distribution. All statistical algorithms were developed using the R Project for statistical computing. Bayesian analysis of time-interval information provided a similar detection probability as Bayesian analysis of count information, but the authors were able to make a decision with fewer pulses at relatively higher radiation levels. In addition, for the cases with very short presence of the source (< count time), time-interval information is more sensitive to detect a change than count information since the source data is averaged by the background data over the entire count time. The relationships of the source time, change points, and modifications to the Bayesian approach for increasing detection probability are presented.

Semi-blind sparse image reconstruction with application to MRFM.

PubMed

Park, Se Un; Dobigeon, Nicolas; Hero, Alfred O

2012-09-01

We propose a solution to the image deconvolution problem where the convolution kernel or point spread function (PSF) is assumed to be only partially known. Small perturbations generated from the model are exploited to produce a few principal components explaining the PSF uncertainty in a high-dimensional space. Unlike recent developments on blind deconvolution of natural images, we assume the image is sparse in the pixel basis, a natural sparsity arising in magnetic resonance force microscopy (MRFM). Our approach adopts a Bayesian Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampling framework. The performance of our Bayesian semi-blind algorithm for sparse images is superior to previously proposed semi-blind algorithms such as the alternating minimization algorithm and blind algorithms developed for natural images. We illustrate our myopic algorithm on real MRFM tobacco virus data.

Bayesian X-ray computed tomography using a three-level hierarchical prior model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Li; Mohammad-Djafari, Ali; Gac, Nicolas

2017-06-01

In recent decades X-ray Computed Tomography (CT) image reconstruction has been largely developed in both medical and industrial domain. In this paper, we propose using the Bayesian inference approach with a new hierarchical prior model. In the proposed model, a generalised Student-t distribution is used to enforce the Haar transformation of images to be sparse. Comparisons with some state of the art methods are presented. It is shown that by using the proposed model, the sparsity of sparse representation of images is enforced, so that edges of images are preserved. Simulation results are also provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new hierarchical model for reconstruction with fewer projections.

A SAS Interface for Bayesian Analysis with WinBUGS

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Zhiyong; McArdle, John J.; Wang, Lijuan; Hamagami, Fumiaki

2008-01-01

Bayesian methods are becoming very popular despite some practical difficulties in implementation. To assist in the practical application of Bayesian methods, we show how to implement Bayesian analysis with WinBUGS as part of a standard set of SAS routines. This implementation procedure is first illustrated by fitting a multiple regression model…

A Sparse Bayesian Approach for Forward-Looking Superresolution Radar Imaging

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yin; Zhang, Yongchao; Huang, Yulin; Yang, Jianyu

2017-01-01

This paper presents a sparse superresolution approach for high cross-range resolution imaging of forward-looking scanning radar based on the Bayesian criterion. First, a novel forward-looking signal model is established as the product of the measurement matrix and the cross-range target distribution, which is more accurate than the conventional convolution model. Then, based on the Bayesian criterion, the widely-used sparse regularization is considered as the penalty term to recover the target distribution. The derivation of the cost function is described, and finally, an iterative expression for minimizing this function is presented. Alternatively, this paper discusses how to estimate the single parameter of Gaussian noise. With the advantage of a more accurate model, the proposed sparse Bayesian approach enjoys a lower model error. Meanwhile, when compared with the conventional superresolution methods, the proposed approach shows high cross-range resolution and small location error. The superresolution results for the simulated point target, scene data, and real measured data are presented to demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed approach. PMID:28604583

Robust Tracking of Small Displacements with a Bayesian Estimator

PubMed Central

Dumont, Douglas M.; Byram, Brett C.

2016-01-01

Radiation-force-based elasticity imaging describes a group of techniques that use acoustic radiation force (ARF) to displace tissue in order to obtain qualitative or quantitative measurements of tissue properties. Because ARF-induced displacements are on the order of micrometers, tracking these displacements in vivo can be challenging. Previously, it has been shown that Bayesian-based estimation can overcome some of the limitations of a traditional displacement estimator like normalized cross-correlation (NCC). In this work, we describe a Bayesian framework that combines a generalized Gaussian-Markov random field (GGMRF) prior with an automated method for selecting the prior’s width. We then evaluate its performance in the context of tracking the micrometer-order displacements encountered in an ARF-based method like acoustic radiation force impulse (ARFI) imaging. The results show that bias, variance, and mean-square error performance vary with prior shape and width, and that an almost one order-of-magnitude reduction in mean-square error can be achieved by the estimator at the automatically-selected prior width. Lesion simulations show that the proposed estimator has a higher contrast-to-noise ratio but lower contrast than NCC, median-filtered NCC, and the previous Bayesian estimator, with a non-Gaussian prior shape having better lesion-edge resolution than a Gaussian prior. In vivo results from a cardiac, radiofrequency ablation ARFI imaging dataset show quantitative improvements in lesion contrast-to-noise ratio over NCC as well as the previous Bayesian estimator. PMID:26529761

A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

PubMed Central

van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B; Neyer, Franz J; van Aken, Marcel AG

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are introduced using a simplified example. Thereafter, the advantages and pitfalls of the specification of prior knowledge are discussed. To illustrate Bayesian methods explained in this study, in a second example a series of studies that examine the theoretical framework of dynamic interactionism are considered. In the Discussion the advantages and disadvantages of using Bayesian statistics are reviewed, and guidelines on how to report on Bayesian statistics are provided. PMID:24116396

Statistical analysis of textural features for improved classification of oral histopathological images.

PubMed

Muthu Rama Krishnan, M; Shah, Pratik; Chakraborty, Chandan; Ray, Ajoy K

2012-04-01

The objective of this paper is to provide an improved technique, which can assist oncopathologists in correct screening of oral precancerous conditions specially oral submucous fibrosis (OSF) with significant accuracy on the basis of collagen fibres in the sub-epithelial connective tissue. The proposed scheme is composed of collagen fibres segmentation, its textural feature extraction and selection, screening perfomance enhancement under Gaussian transformation and finally classification. In this study, collagen fibres are segmented on R,G,B color channels using back-probagation neural network from 60 normal and 59 OSF histological images followed by histogram specification for reducing the stain intensity variation. Henceforth, textural features of collgen area are extracted using fractal approaches viz., differential box counting and brownian motion curve . Feature selection is done using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence criterion and the screening performance is evaluated based on various statistical tests to conform Gaussian nature. Here, the screening performance is enhanced under Gaussian transformation of the non-Gaussian features using hybrid distribution. Moreover, the routine screening is designed based on two statistical classifiers viz., Bayesian classification and support vector machines (SVM) to classify normal and OSF. It is observed that SVM with linear kernel function provides better classification accuracy (91.64%) as compared to Bayesian classifier. The addition of fractal features of collagen under Gaussian transformation improves Bayesian classifier's performance from 80.69% to 90.75%. Results are here studied and discussed.

APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS TO A LAGRANGIAN PHOTOCHEMICAL AIR QUALITY MODEL. (R824792)

EPA Science Inventory

Uncertainties in ozone concentrations predicted with a Lagrangian photochemical air quality model have been estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) analysis. Bayesian Monte Carlo analysis provides a means of combining subjective "prior" uncertainty estimates developed ...

Bayesian nonparametric dictionary learning for compressed sensing MRI.

PubMed

Huang, Yue; Paisley, John; Lin, Qin; Ding, Xinghao; Fu, Xueyang; Zhang, Xiao-Ping

2014-12-01

We develop a Bayesian nonparametric model for reconstructing magnetic resonance images (MRIs) from highly undersampled k -space data. We perform dictionary learning as part of the image reconstruction process. To this end, we use the beta process as a nonparametric dictionary learning prior for representing an image patch as a sparse combination of dictionary elements. The size of the dictionary and patch-specific sparsity pattern are inferred from the data, in addition to other dictionary learning variables. Dictionary learning is performed directly on the compressed image, and so is tailored to the MRI being considered. In addition, we investigate a total variation penalty term in combination with the dictionary learning model, and show how the denoising property of dictionary learning removes dependence on regularization parameters in the noisy setting. We derive a stochastic optimization algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo for the Bayesian model, and use the alternating direction method of multipliers for efficiently performing total variation minimization. We present empirical results on several MRI, which show that the proposed regularization framework can improve reconstruction accuracy over other methods.

Computer-aided diagnosis of lung nodule using gradient tree boosting and Bayesian optimization.

PubMed

Nishio, Mizuho; Nishizawa, Mitsuo; Sugiyama, Osamu; Kojima, Ryosuke; Yakami, Masahiro; Kuroda, Tomohiro; Togashi, Kaori

2018-01-01

We aimed to evaluate a computer-aided diagnosis (CADx) system for lung nodule classification focussing on (i) usefulness of the conventional CADx system (hand-crafted imaging feature + machine learning algorithm), (ii) comparison between support vector machine (SVM) and gradient tree boosting (XGBoost) as machine learning algorithms, and (iii) effectiveness of parameter optimization using Bayesian optimization and random search. Data on 99 lung nodules (62 lung cancers and 37 benign lung nodules) were included from public databases of CT images. A variant of the local binary pattern was used for calculating a feature vector. SVM or XGBoost was trained using the feature vector and its corresponding label. Tree Parzen Estimator (TPE) was used as Bayesian optimization for parameters of SVM and XGBoost. Random search was done for comparison with TPE. Leave-one-out cross-validation was used for optimizing and evaluating the performance of our CADx system. Performance was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic analysis. AUC was calculated 10 times, and its average was obtained. The best averaged AUC of SVM and XGBoost was 0.850 and 0.896, respectively; both were obtained using TPE. XGBoost was generally superior to SVM. Optimal parameters for achieving high AUC were obtained with fewer numbers of trials when using TPE, compared with random search. Bayesian optimization of SVM and XGBoost parameters was more efficient than random search. Based on observer study, AUC values of two board-certified radiologists were 0.898 and 0.822. The results show that diagnostic accuracy of our CADx system was comparable to that of radiologists with respect to classifying lung nodules.

Variational Bayesian Learning for Wavelet Independent Component Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roussos, E.; Roberts, S.; Daubechies, I.

2005-11-01

In an exploratory approach to data analysis, it is often useful to consider the observations as generated from a set of latent generators or "sources" via a generally unknown mapping. For the noisy overcomplete case, where we have more sources than observations, the problem becomes extremely ill-posed. Solutions to such inverse problems can, in many cases, be achieved by incorporating prior knowledge about the problem, captured in the form of constraints. This setting is a natural candidate for the application of the Bayesian methodology, allowing us to incorporate "soft" constraints in a natural manner. The work described in this paper is mainly driven by problems in functional magnetic resonance imaging of the brain, for the neuro-scientific goal of extracting relevant "maps" from the data. This can be stated as a `blind' source separation problem. Recent experiments in the field of neuroscience show that these maps are sparse, in some appropriate sense. The separation problem can be solved by independent component analysis (ICA), viewed as a technique for seeking sparse components, assuming appropriate distributions for the sources. We derive a hybrid wavelet-ICA model, transforming the signals into a domain where the modeling assumption of sparsity of the coefficients with respect to a dictionary is natural. We follow a graphical modeling formalism, viewing ICA as a probabilistic generative model. We use hierarchical source and mixing models and apply Bayesian inference to the problem. This allows us to perform model selection in order to infer the complexity of the representation, as well as automatic denoising. Since exact inference and learning in such a model is intractable, we follow a variational Bayesian mean-field approach in the conjugate-exponential family of distributions, for efficient unsupervised learning in multi-dimensional settings. The performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated on some representative experiments.

A support vector machine classifier reduces interscanner variation in the HRCT classification of regional disease pattern in diffuse lung disease: Comparison to a Bayesian classifier

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chang, Yongjun; Lim, Jonghyuck; Kim, Namkug

2013-05-15

Purpose: To investigate the effect of using different computed tomography (CT) scanners on the accuracy of high-resolution CT (HRCT) images in classifying regional disease patterns in patients with diffuse lung disease, support vector machine (SVM) and Bayesian classifiers were applied to multicenter data. Methods: Two experienced radiologists marked sets of 600 rectangular 20 Multiplication-Sign 20 pixel regions of interest (ROIs) on HRCT images obtained from two scanners (GE and Siemens), including 100 ROIs for each of local patterns of lungs-normal lung and five of regional pulmonary disease patterns (ground-glass opacity, reticular opacity, honeycombing, emphysema, and consolidation). Each ROI was assessedmore » using 22 quantitative features belonging to one of the following descriptors: histogram, gradient, run-length, gray level co-occurrence matrix, low-attenuation area cluster, and top-hat transform. For automatic classification, a Bayesian classifier and a SVM classifier were compared under three different conditions. First, classification accuracies were estimated using data from each scanner. Next, data from the GE and Siemens scanners were used for training and testing, respectively, and vice versa. Finally, all ROI data were integrated regardless of the scanner type and were then trained and tested together. All experiments were performed based on forward feature selection and fivefold cross-validation with 20 repetitions. Results: For each scanner, better classification accuracies were achieved with the SVM classifier than the Bayesian classifier (92% and 82%, respectively, for the GE scanner; and 92% and 86%, respectively, for the Siemens scanner). The classification accuracies were 82%/72% for training with GE data and testing with Siemens data, and 79%/72% for the reverse. The use of training and test data obtained from the HRCT images of different scanners lowered the classification accuracy compared to the use of HRCT images from the same scanner. For integrated ROI data obtained from both scanners, the classification accuracies with the SVM and Bayesian classifiers were 92% and 77%, respectively. The selected features resulting from the classification process differed by scanner, with more features included for the classification of the integrated HRCT data than for the classification of the HRCT data from each scanner. For the integrated data, consisting of HRCT images of both scanners, the classification accuracy based on the SVM was statistically similar to the accuracy of the data obtained from each scanner. However, the classification accuracy of the integrated data using the Bayesian classifier was significantly lower than the classification accuracy of the ROI data of each scanner. Conclusions: The use of an integrated dataset along with a SVM classifier rather than a Bayesian classifier has benefits in terms of the classification accuracy of HRCT images acquired with more than one scanner. This finding is of relevance in studies involving large number of images, as is the case in a multicenter trial with different scanners.« less

Bayesian multi-scale smoothing of photon-limited images with applications to astronomy and medicine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, John

Multi-scale models for smoothing Poisson signals or images have gained much attention over the past decade. A new Bayesian model is developed using the concept of the Chinese restaurant process to find structures in two-dimensional images when performing image reconstruction or smoothing. This new model performs very well when compared to other leading methodologies for the same problem. It is developed and evaluated theoretically and empirically throughout Chapter 2. The newly developed Bayesian model is extended to three-dimensional images in Chapter 3. The third dimension has numerous different applications, such as different energy spectra, another spatial index, or possibly a temporal dimension. Empirically, this method shows promise in reducing error with the use of simulation studies. A further development removes background noise in the image. This removal can further reduce the error and is done using a modeling adjustment and post-processing techniques. These details are given in Chapter 4. Applications to real world problems are given throughout. Photon-based images are common in astronomical imaging due to the collection of different types of energy such as X-Rays. Applications to real astronomical images are given, and these consist of X-ray images from the Chandra X-ray observatory satellite. Diagnostic medicine uses many types of imaging such as magnetic resonance imaging and computed tomography that can also benefit from smoothing techniques such as the one developed here. Reducing the amount of radiation a patient takes will make images more noisy, but this can be mitigated through the use of image smoothing techniques. Both types of images represent the potential real world use for these methods.

Bayesian Analysis Of HMI Solar Image Observables And Comparison To TSI Variations And MWO Image Observables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, D. G.; Ulrich, R. K.; Beck, J.

2014-12-01

We have previously applied the Bayesian automatic classification system AutoClass to solar magnetogram and intensity images from the 150 Foot Solar Tower at Mount Wilson to identify classes of solar surface features associated with variations in total solar irradiance (TSI) and, using those identifications, modeled TSI time series with improved accuracy (r > 0.96). (Ulrich, et al, 2010) AutoClass identifies classes by a two-step process in which it: (1) finds, without human supervision, a set of class definitions based on specified attributes of a sample of the image data pixels, such as magnetic field and intensity in the case of MWO images, and (2) applies the class definitions thus found to new data sets to identify automatically in them the classes found in the sample set. HMI high resolution images capture four observables-magnetic field, continuum intensity, line depth and line width-in contrast to MWO's two observables-magnetic field and intensity. In this study, we apply AutoClass to the HMI observables for images from May, 2010 to June, 2014 to identify solar surface feature classes. We use contemporaneous TSI measurements to determine whether and how variations in the HMI classes are related to TSI variations and compare the characteristic statistics of the HMI classes to those found from MWO images. We also attempt to derive scale factors between the HMI and MWO magnetic and intensity observables. The ability to categorize automatically surface features in the HMI images holds out the promise of consistent, relatively quick and manageable analysis of the large quantity of data available in these images. Given that the classes found in MWO images using AutoClass have been found to improve modeling of TSI, application of AutoClass to the more complex HMI images should enhance understanding of the physical processes at work in solar surface features and their implications for the solar-terrestrial environment. Ulrich, R.K., Parker, D, Bertello, L. and Boyden, J. 2010, Solar Phys. , 261 , 11.

Bayesian survival analysis in clinical trials: What methods are used in practice?

PubMed

Brard, Caroline; Le Teuff, Gwénaël; Le Deley, Marie-Cécile; Hampson, Lisa V

2017-02-01

Background Bayesian statistics are an appealing alternative to the traditional frequentist approach to designing, analysing, and reporting of clinical trials, especially in rare diseases. Time-to-event endpoints are widely used in many medical fields. There are additional complexities to designing Bayesian survival trials which arise from the need to specify a model for the survival distribution. The objective of this article was to critically review the use and reporting of Bayesian methods in survival trials. Methods A systematic review of clinical trials using Bayesian survival analyses was performed through PubMed and Web of Science databases. This was complemented by a full text search of the online repositories of pre-selected journals. Cost-effectiveness, dose-finding studies, meta-analyses, and methodological papers using clinical trials were excluded. Results In total, 28 articles met the inclusion criteria, 25 were original reports of clinical trials and 3 were re-analyses of a clinical trial. Most trials were in oncology (n = 25), were randomised controlled (n = 21) phase III trials (n = 13), and half considered a rare disease (n = 13). Bayesian approaches were used for monitoring in 14 trials and for the final analysis only in 14 trials. In the latter case, Bayesian survival analyses were used for the primary analysis in four cases, for the secondary analysis in seven cases, and for the trial re-analysis in three cases. Overall, 12 articles reported fitting Bayesian regression models (semi-parametric, n = 3; parametric, n = 9). Prior distributions were often incompletely reported: 20 articles did not define the prior distribution used for the parameter of interest. Over half of the trials used only non-informative priors for monitoring and the final analysis (n = 12) when it was specified. Indeed, no articles fitting Bayesian regression models placed informative priors on the parameter of interest. The prior for the treatment effect was based on historical data in only four trials. Decision rules were pre-defined in eight cases when trials used Bayesian monitoring, and in only one case when trials adopted a Bayesian approach to the final analysis. Conclusion Few trials implemented a Bayesian survival analysis and few incorporated external data into priors. There is scope to improve the quality of reporting of Bayesian methods in survival trials. Extension of the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials statement for reporting Bayesian clinical trials is recommended.

Applications of Bayesian spectrum representation in acoustics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botts, Jonathan M.

This dissertation utilizes a Bayesian inference framework to enhance the solution of inverse problems where the forward model maps to acoustic spectra. A Bayesian solution to filter design inverts a acoustic spectra to pole-zero locations of a discrete-time filter model. Spatial sound field analysis with a spherical microphone array is a data analysis problem that requires inversion of spatio-temporal spectra to directions of arrival. As with many inverse problems, a probabilistic analysis results in richer solutions than can be achieved with ad-hoc methods. In the filter design problem, the Bayesian inversion results in globally optimal coefficient estimates as well as an estimate the most concise filter capable of representing the given spectrum, within a single framework. This approach is demonstrated on synthetic spectra, head-related transfer function spectra, and measured acoustic reflection spectra. The Bayesian model-based analysis of spatial room impulse responses is presented as an analogous problem with equally rich solution. The model selection mechanism provides an estimate of the number of arrivals, which is necessary to properly infer the directions of simultaneous arrivals. Although, spectrum inversion problems are fairly ubiquitous, the scope of this dissertation has been limited to these two and derivative problems. The Bayesian approach to filter design is demonstrated on an artificial spectrum to illustrate the model comparison mechanism and then on measured head-related transfer functions to show the potential range of application. Coupled with sampling methods, the Bayesian approach is shown to outperform least-squares filter design methods commonly used in commercial software, confirming the need for a global search of the parameter space. The resulting designs are shown to be comparable to those that result from global optimization methods, but the Bayesian approach has the added advantage of a filter length estimate within the same unified framework. The application to reflection data is useful for representing frequency-dependent impedance boundaries in finite difference acoustic simulations. Furthermore, since the filter transfer function is a parametric model, it can be modified to incorporate arbitrary frequency weighting and account for the band-limited nature of measured reflection spectra. Finally, the model is modified to compensate for dispersive error in the finite difference simulation, from the filter design process. Stemming from the filter boundary problem, the implementation of pressure sources in finite difference simulation is addressed in order to assure that schemes properly converge. A class of parameterized source functions is proposed and shown to offer straightforward control of residual error in the simulation. Guided by the notion that the solution to be approximated affects the approximation error, sources are designed which reduce residual dispersive error to the size of round-off errors. The early part of a room impulse response can be characterized by a series of isolated plane waves. Measured with an array of microphones, plane waves map to a directional response of the array or spatial intensity map. Probabilistic inversion of this response results in estimates of the number and directions of image source arrivals. The model-based inversion is shown to avoid ambiguities associated with peak-finding or inspection of the spatial intensity map. For this problem, determining the number of arrivals in a given frame is critical for properly inferring the state of the sound field. This analysis is effectively compression of the spatial room response, which is useful for analysis or encoding of the spatial sound field. Parametric, model-based formulations of these problems enhance the solution in all cases, and a Bayesian interpretation provides a principled approach to model comparison and parameter estimation. v

Multi-class segmentation of neuronal electron microscopy images using deep learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khobragade, Nivedita; Agarwal, Chirag

2018-03-01

Study of connectivity of neural circuits is an essential step towards a better understanding of functioning of the nervous system. With the recent improvement in imaging techniques, high-resolution and high-volume images are being generated requiring automated segmentation techniques. We present a pixel-wise classification method based on Bayesian SegNet architecture. We carried out multi-class segmentation on serial section Transmission Electron Microscopy (ssTEM) images of Drosophila third instar larva ventral nerve cord, labeling the four classes of neuron membranes, neuron intracellular space, mitochondria and glia / extracellular space. Bayesian SegNet was trained using 256 ssTEM images of 256 x 256 pixels and tested on 64 different ssTEM images of the same size, from the same serial stack. Due to high class imbalance, we used a class-balanced version of Bayesian SegNet by re-weighting each class based on their relative frequency. We achieved an overall accuracy of 93% and a mean class accuracy of 88% for pixel-wise segmentation using this encoder-decoder approach. On evaluating the segmentation results using similarity metrics like SSIM and Dice Coefficient, we obtained scores of 0.994 and 0.886 respectively. Additionally, we used the network trained using the 256 ssTEM images of Drosophila third instar larva for multi-class labeling of ISBI 2012 challenge ssTEM dataset.

Textual and visual content-based anti-phishing: a Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Zhang, Haijun; Liu, Gang; Chow, Tommy W S; Liu, Wenyin

2011-10-01

A novel framework using a Bayesian approach for content-based phishing web page detection is presented. Our model takes into account textual and visual contents to measure the similarity between the protected web page and suspicious web pages. A text classifier, an image classifier, and an algorithm fusing the results from classifiers are introduced. An outstanding feature of this paper is the exploration of a Bayesian model to estimate the matching threshold. This is required in the classifier for determining the class of the web page and identifying whether the web page is phishing or not. In the text classifier, the naive Bayes rule is used to calculate the probability that a web page is phishing. In the image classifier, the earth mover's distance is employed to measure the visual similarity, and our Bayesian model is designed to determine the threshold. In the data fusion algorithm, the Bayes theory is used to synthesize the classification results from textual and visual content. The effectiveness of our proposed approach was examined in a large-scale dataset collected from real phishing cases. Experimental results demonstrated that the text classifier and the image classifier we designed deliver promising results, the fusion algorithm outperforms either of the individual classifiers, and our model can be adapted to different phishing cases. © 2011 IEEE

Light-sheet Bayesian microscopy enables deep-cell super-resolution imaging of heterochromatin in live human embryonic stem cells.

PubMed

Hu, Ying S; Zhu, Quan; Elkins, Keri; Tse, Kevin; Li, Yu; Fitzpatrick, James A J; Verma, Inder M; Cang, Hu

2013-01-01

Heterochromatin in the nucleus of human embryonic cells plays an important role in the epigenetic regulation of gene expression. The architecture of heterochromatin and its dynamic organization remain elusive because of the lack of fast and high-resolution deep-cell imaging tools. We enable this task by advancing instrumental and algorithmic implementation of the localization-based super-resolution technique. We present light-sheet Bayesian super-resolution microscopy (LSBM). We adapt light-sheet illumination for super-resolution imaging by using a novel prism-coupled condenser design to illuminate a thin slice of the nucleus with high signal-to-noise ratio. Coupled with a Bayesian algorithm that resolves overlapping fluorophores from high-density areas, we show, for the first time, nanoscopic features of the heterochromatin structure in both fixed and live human embryonic stem cells. The enhanced temporal resolution allows capturing the dynamic change of heterochromatin with a lateral resolution of 50-60 nm on a time scale of 2.3 s. Light-sheet Bayesian microscopy opens up broad new possibilities of probing nanometer-scale nuclear structures and real-time sub-cellular processes and other previously difficult-to-access intracellular regions of living cells at the single-molecule, and single cell level.

Light-sheet Bayesian microscopy enables deep-cell super-resolution imaging of heterochromatin in live human embryonic stem cells

PubMed Central

Hu, Ying S; Zhu, Quan; Elkins, Keri; Tse, Kevin; Li, Yu; Fitzpatrick, James A J; Verma, Inder M; Cang, Hu

2016-01-01

Background Heterochromatin in the nucleus of human embryonic cells plays an important role in the epigenetic regulation of gene expression. The architecture of heterochromatin and its dynamic organization remain elusive because of the lack of fast and high-resolution deep-cell imaging tools. We enable this task by advancing instrumental and algorithmic implementation of the localization-based super-resolution technique. Results We present light-sheet Bayesian super-resolution microscopy (LSBM). We adapt light-sheet illumination for super-resolution imaging by using a novel prism-coupled condenser design to illuminate a thin slice of the nucleus with high signal-to-noise ratio. Coupled with a Bayesian algorithm that resolves overlapping fluorophores from high-density areas, we show, for the first time, nanoscopic features of the heterochromatin structure in both fixed and live human embryonic stem cells. The enhanced temporal resolution allows capturing the dynamic change of heterochromatin with a lateral resolution of 50–60 nm on a time scale of 2.3 s. Conclusion Light-sheet Bayesian microscopy opens up broad new possibilities of probing nanometer-scale nuclear structures and real-time sub-cellular processes and other previously difficult-to-access intracellular regions of living cells at the single-molecule, and single cell level. PMID:27795878

Evaluating Great Lakes bald eagle nesting habitat with Bayesian inference

Treesearch

Teryl G. Grubb; William W. Bowerman; Allen J. Bath; John P. Giesy; D. V. Chip Weseloh

2003-01-01

Bayesian inference facilitated structured interpretation of a nonreplicated, experience-based survey of potential nesting habitat for bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) along the five Great Lakes shorelines. We developed a pattern recognition (PATREC) model of our aerial search image with six habitat attributes: (a) tree cover, (b) proximity and...

The Application of Bayesian Analysis to Issues in Developmental Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walker, Lawrence J.; Gustafson, Paul; Frimer, Jeremy A.

2007-01-01

This article reviews the concepts and methods of Bayesian statistical analysis, which can offer innovative and powerful solutions to some challenging analytical problems that characterize developmental research. In this article, we demonstrate the utility of Bayesian analysis, explain its unique adeptness in some circumstances, address some…

A default Bayesian hypothesis test for mediation.

PubMed

Nuijten, Michèle B; Wetzels, Ruud; Matzke, Dora; Dolan, Conor V; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2015-03-01

In order to quantify the relationship between multiple variables, researchers often carry out a mediation analysis. In such an analysis, a mediator (e.g., knowledge of a healthy diet) transmits the effect from an independent variable (e.g., classroom instruction on a healthy diet) to a dependent variable (e.g., consumption of fruits and vegetables). Almost all mediation analyses in psychology use frequentist estimation and hypothesis-testing techniques. A recent exception is Yuan and MacKinnon (Psychological Methods, 14, 301-322, 2009), who outlined a Bayesian parameter estimation procedure for mediation analysis. Here we complete the Bayesian alternative to frequentist mediation analysis by specifying a default Bayesian hypothesis test based on the Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow approach. We further extend this default Bayesian test by allowing a comparison to directional or one-sided alternatives, using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques implemented in JAGS. All Bayesian tests are implemented in the R package BayesMed (Nuijten, Wetzels, Matzke, Dolan, & Wagenmakers, 2014).

A Tutorial in Bayesian Potential Outcomes Mediation Analysis.

PubMed

Miočević, Milica; Gonzalez, Oscar; Valente, Matthew J; MacKinnon, David P

2018-01-01

Statistical mediation analysis is used to investigate intermediate variables in the relation between independent and dependent variables. Causal interpretation of mediation analyses is challenging because randomization of subjects to levels of the independent variable does not rule out the possibility of unmeasured confounders of the mediator to outcome relation. Furthermore, commonly used frequentist methods for mediation analysis compute the probability of the data given the null hypothesis, which is not the probability of a hypothesis given the data as in Bayesian analysis. Under certain assumptions, applying the potential outcomes framework to mediation analysis allows for the computation of causal effects, and statistical mediation in the Bayesian framework gives indirect effects probabilistic interpretations. This tutorial combines causal inference and Bayesian methods for mediation analysis so the indirect and direct effects have both causal and probabilistic interpretations. Steps in Bayesian causal mediation analysis are shown in the application to an empirical example.

An image processing pipeline to detect and segment nuclei in muscle fiber microscopic images.

PubMed

Guo, Yanen; Xu, Xiaoyin; Wang, Yuanyuan; Wang, Yaming; Xia, Shunren; Yang, Zhong

2014-08-01

Muscle fiber images play an important role in the medical diagnosis and treatment of many muscular diseases. The number of nuclei in skeletal muscle fiber images is a key bio-marker of the diagnosis of muscular dystrophy. In nuclei segmentation one primary challenge is to correctly separate the clustered nuclei. In this article, we developed an image processing pipeline to automatically detect, segment, and analyze nuclei in microscopic image of muscle fibers. The pipeline consists of image pre-processing, identification of isolated nuclei, identification and segmentation of clustered nuclei, and quantitative analysis. Nuclei are initially extracted from background by using local Otsu's threshold. Based on analysis of morphological features of the isolated nuclei, including their areas, compactness, and major axis lengths, a Bayesian network is trained and applied to identify isolated nuclei from clustered nuclei and artifacts in all the images. Then a two-step refined watershed algorithm is applied to segment clustered nuclei. After segmentation, the nuclei can be quantified for statistical analysis. Comparing the segmented results with those of manual analysis and an existing technique, we find that our proposed image processing pipeline achieves good performance with high accuracy and precision. The presented image processing pipeline can therefore help biologists increase their throughput and objectivity in analyzing large numbers of nuclei in muscle fiber images. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

EEG and MEG data analysis in SPM8.

PubMed

Litvak, Vladimir; Mattout, Jérémie; Kiebel, Stefan; Phillips, Christophe; Henson, Richard; Kilner, James; Barnes, Gareth; Oostenveld, Robert; Daunizeau, Jean; Flandin, Guillaume; Penny, Will; Friston, Karl

2011-01-01

SPM is a free and open source software written in MATLAB (The MathWorks, Inc.). In addition to standard M/EEG preprocessing, we presently offer three main analysis tools: (i) statistical analysis of scalp-maps, time-frequency images, and volumetric 3D source reconstruction images based on the general linear model, with correction for multiple comparisons using random field theory; (ii) Bayesian M/EEG source reconstruction, including support for group studies, simultaneous EEG and MEG, and fMRI priors; (iii) dynamic causal modelling (DCM), an approach combining neural modelling with data analysis for which there are several variants dealing with evoked responses, steady state responses (power spectra and cross-spectra), induced responses, and phase coupling. SPM8 is integrated with the FieldTrip toolbox , making it possible for users to combine a variety of standard analysis methods with new schemes implemented in SPM and build custom analysis tools using powerful graphical user interface (GUI) and batching tools.

EEG and MEG Data Analysis in SPM8

PubMed Central

Litvak, Vladimir; Mattout, Jérémie; Kiebel, Stefan; Phillips, Christophe; Henson, Richard; Kilner, James; Barnes, Gareth; Oostenveld, Robert; Daunizeau, Jean; Flandin, Guillaume; Penny, Will; Friston, Karl

2011-01-01

SPM is a free and open source software written in MATLAB (The MathWorks, Inc.). In addition to standard M/EEG preprocessing, we presently offer three main analysis tools: (i) statistical analysis of scalp-maps, time-frequency images, and volumetric 3D source reconstruction images based on the general linear model, with correction for multiple comparisons using random field theory; (ii) Bayesian M/EEG source reconstruction, including support for group studies, simultaneous EEG and MEG, and fMRI priors; (iii) dynamic causal modelling (DCM), an approach combining neural modelling with data analysis for which there are several variants dealing with evoked responses, steady state responses (power spectra and cross-spectra), induced responses, and phase coupling. SPM8 is integrated with the FieldTrip toolbox , making it possible for users to combine a variety of standard analysis methods with new schemes implemented in SPM and build custom analysis tools using powerful graphical user interface (GUI) and batching tools. PMID:21437221

Volume measurement of cryogenic deuterium pellets by Bayesian analysis of single shadowgraphy images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szepesi, T.; Kálvin, S.; Kocsis, G.; Lang, P. T.; Wittmann, C.

2008-03-01

In situ commissioning of the Blower-gun injector for launching cryogenic deuterium pellets at ASDEX Upgrade tokamak was performed. This injector is designed for high repetitive launch of small pellets for edge localised modes pacing experiments. During the investigation the final injection geometry was simulated with pellets passing to the torus through a 5.5m long guiding tube. For investigation of pellet quality at launch and after tube passage laser flash camera shadowgraphy diagnostic units before and after the tube were installed. As indicator of pellet quality we adopted the pellet mass represented by the volume of the main remaining pellet fragment. Since only two-dimensional (2D) shadow images were obtained, a reconstruction of the full three-dimensional pellet body had to be performed. For this the image was first converted into a 1-bit version prescribing an exact 2D contour. From this contour the expected value of the volume was calculated by Bayesian analysis taking into account the likely cylindrical shape of the pellet. Under appropriate injection conditions sound pellets with more than half of their nominal mass are detected after acceleration; the passage causes in average an additional loss of about 40% to the launched mass. Analyzing pellets arriving at tube exit allowed for deriving the injector's optimized operational conditions. For these more than 90% of the pellets were arriving with sound quality when operating in the frequency range 5-50Hz.

A Bayesian observer replicates convexity context effects in figure-ground perception.

PubMed

Goldreich, Daniel; Peterson, Mary A

2012-01-01

Peterson and Salvagio (2008) demonstrated convexity context effects in figure-ground perception. Subjects shown displays consisting of unfamiliar alternating convex and concave regions identified the convex regions as foreground objects progressively more frequently as the number of regions increased; this occurred only when the concave regions were homogeneously colored. The origins of these effects have been unclear. Here, we present a two-free-parameter Bayesian observer that replicates convexity context effects. The Bayesian observer incorporates two plausible expectations regarding three-dimensional scenes: (1) objects tend to be convex rather than concave, and (2) backgrounds tend (more than foreground objects) to be homogeneously colored. The Bayesian observer estimates the probability that a depicted scene is three-dimensional, and that the convex regions are figures. It responds stochastically by sampling from its posterior distributions. Like human observers, the Bayesian observer shows convexity context effects only for images with homogeneously colored concave regions. With optimal parameter settings, it performs similarly to the average human subject on the four display types tested. We propose that object convexity and background color homogeneity are environmental regularities exploited by human visual perception; vision achieves figure-ground perception by interpreting ambiguous images in light of these and other expected regularities in natural scenes.

Radiation dose reduction in computed tomography perfusion using spatial-temporal Bayesian methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Ruogu; Raj, Ashish; Chen, Tsuhan; Sanelli, Pina C.

2012-03-01

In current computed tomography (CT) examinations, the associated X-ray radiation dose is of significant concern to patients and operators, especially CT perfusion (CTP) imaging that has higher radiation dose due to its cine scanning technique. A simple and cost-effective means to perform the examinations is to lower the milliampere-seconds (mAs) parameter as low as reasonably achievable in data acquisition. However, lowering the mAs parameter will unavoidably increase data noise and degrade CT perfusion maps greatly if no adequate noise control is applied during image reconstruction. To capture the essential dynamics of CT perfusion, a simple spatial-temporal Bayesian method that uses a piecewise parametric model of the residual function is used, and then the model parameters are estimated from a Bayesian formulation of prior smoothness constraints on perfusion parameters. From the fitted residual function, reliable CTP parameter maps are obtained from low dose CT data. The merit of this scheme exists in the combination of analytical piecewise residual function with Bayesian framework using a simpler prior spatial constrain for CT perfusion application. On a dataset of 22 patients, this dynamic spatial-temporal Bayesian model yielded an increase in signal-tonoise-ratio (SNR) of 78% and a decrease in mean-square-error (MSE) of 40% at low dose radiation of 43mA.

A Gender Identification System for Customers in a Shop Using Infrared Area Scanners

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tajima, Takuya; Kimura, Haruhiko; Abe, Takehiko; Abe, Koji; Nakamoto, Yoshinori

Information about customers in shops plays an important role in marketing analysis. Currently, in convenience stores and supermarkets, the identification of customer's gender is examined by clerks. On the other hand, gender identification systems using camera images are investigated. However, these systems have a problem of invading human privacies in identifying attributes of customers. The proposed system identifies gender by using infrared area scanners and Bayesian network. In the proposed system, since infrared area scanners do not take customers' images directly, invasion of privacies are not occurred. The proposed method uses three parameters of height, walking speed and pace for humans. In general, it is shown that these parameters have factors of sexual distinction in humans, and Bayesian network is designed with these three parameters. The proposed method resolves the existent problems of restricting the locations where the systems are set and invading human privacies. Experimental results using data obtained from 450 people show that the identification rate for the proposed method was 91.3% on the average of both of male and female identifications.

A Bayesian approach to meta-analysis of plant pathology studies.

PubMed

Mila, A L; Ngugi, H K

2011-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are used for meta-analysis in many disciplines, including medicine, molecular biology, and engineering, but have not yet been applied for quantitative synthesis of plant pathology studies. In this paper, we illustrate the key concepts of Bayesian statistics and outline the differences between Bayesian and classical (frequentist) methods in the way parameters describing population attributes are considered. We then describe a Bayesian approach to meta-analysis and present a plant pathological example based on studies evaluating the efficacy of plant protection products that induce systemic acquired resistance for the management of fire blight of apple. In a simple random-effects model assuming a normal distribution of effect sizes and no prior information (i.e., a noninformative prior), the results of the Bayesian meta-analysis are similar to those obtained with classical methods. Implementing the same model with a Student's t distribution and a noninformative prior for the effect sizes, instead of a normal distribution, yields similar results for all but acibenzolar-S-methyl (Actigard) which was evaluated only in seven studies in this example. Whereas both the classical (P = 0.28) and the Bayesian analysis with a noninformative prior (95% credibility interval [CRI] for the log response ratio: -0.63 to 0.08) indicate a nonsignificant effect for Actigard, specifying a t distribution resulted in a significant, albeit variable, effect for this product (CRI: -0.73 to -0.10). These results confirm the sensitivity of the analytical outcome (i.e., the posterior distribution) to the choice of prior in Bayesian meta-analyses involving a limited number of studies. We review some pertinent literature on more advanced topics, including modeling of among-study heterogeneity, publication bias, analyses involving a limited number of studies, and methods for dealing with missing data, and show how these issues can be approached in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian meta-analysis can readily include information not easily incorporated in classical methods, and allow for a full evaluation of competing models. Given the power and flexibility of Bayesian methods, we expect them to become widely adopted for meta-analysis of plant pathology studies.

A novel Bayesian respiratory motion model to estimate and resolve uncertainty in image-guided cardiac interventions.

PubMed

Peressutti, Devis; Penney, Graeme P; Housden, R James; Kolbitsch, Christoph; Gomez, Alberto; Rijkhorst, Erik-Jan; Barratt, Dean C; Rhode, Kawal S; King, Andrew P

2013-05-01

In image-guided cardiac interventions, respiratory motion causes misalignments between the pre-procedure roadmap of the heart used for guidance and the intra-procedure position of the heart, reducing the accuracy of the guidance information and leading to potentially dangerous consequences. We propose a novel technique for motion-correcting the pre-procedural information that combines a probabilistic MRI-derived affine motion model with intra-procedure real-time 3D echocardiography (echo) images in a Bayesian framework. The probabilistic model incorporates a measure of confidence in its motion estimates which enables resolution of the potentially conflicting information supplied by the model and the echo data. Unlike models proposed so far, our method allows the final motion estimate to deviate from the model-produced estimate according to the information provided by the echo images, so adapting to the complex variability of respiratory motion. The proposed method is evaluated using gold-standard MRI-derived motion fields and simulated 3D echo data for nine volunteers and real 3D live echo images for four volunteers. The Bayesian method is compared to 5 other motion estimation techniques and results show mean/max improvements in estimation accuracy of 10.6%/18.9% for simulated echo images and 20.8%/41.5% for real 3D live echo data, over the best comparative estimation method. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cone Beam X-ray Luminescence Computed Tomography Based on Bayesian Method.

PubMed

Zhang, Guanglei; Liu, Fei; Liu, Jie; Luo, Jianwen; Xie, Yaoqin; Bai, Jing; Xing, Lei

2017-01-01

X-ray luminescence computed tomography (XLCT), which aims to achieve molecular and functional imaging by X-rays, has recently been proposed as a new imaging modality. Combining the principles of X-ray excitation of luminescence-based probes and optical signal detection, XLCT naturally fuses functional and anatomical images and provides complementary information for a wide range of applications in biomedical research. In order to improve the data acquisition efficiency of previously developed narrow-beam XLCT, a cone beam XLCT (CB-XLCT) mode is adopted here to take advantage of the useful geometric features of cone beam excitation. Practically, a major hurdle in using cone beam X-ray for XLCT is that the inverse problem here is seriously ill-conditioned, hindering us to achieve good image quality. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian method to tackle the bottleneck in CB-XLCT reconstruction. The method utilizes a local regularization strategy based on Gaussian Markov random field to mitigate the ill-conditioness of CB-XLCT. An alternating optimization scheme is then used to automatically calculate all the unknown hyperparameters while an iterative coordinate descent algorithm is adopted to reconstruct the image with a voxel-based closed-form solution. Results of numerical simulations and mouse experiments show that the self-adaptive Bayesian method significantly improves the CB-XLCT image quality as compared with conventional methods.

Cone Beam X-ray Luminescence Computed Tomography Based on Bayesian Method

PubMed Central

Liu, Fei; Luo, Jianwen; Xie, Yaoqin; Bai, Jing

2017-01-01

X-ray luminescence computed tomography (XLCT), which aims to achieve molecular and functional imaging by X-rays, has recently been proposed as a new imaging modality. Combining the principles of X-ray excitation of luminescence-based probes and optical signal detection, XLCT naturally fuses functional and anatomical images and provides complementary information for a wide range of applications in biomedical research. In order to improve the data acquisition efficiency of previously developed narrow-beam XLCT, a cone beam XLCT (CB-XLCT) mode is adopted here to take advantage of the useful geometric features of cone beam excitation. Practically, a major hurdle in using cone beam X-ray for XLCT is that the inverse problem here is seriously ill-conditioned, hindering us to achieve good image quality. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian method to tackle the bottleneck in CB-XLCT reconstruction. The method utilizes a local regularization strategy based on Gaussian Markov random field to mitigate the ill-conditioness of CB-XLCT. An alternating optimization scheme is then used to automatically calculate all the unknown hyperparameters while an iterative coordinate descent algorithm is adopted to reconstruct the image with a voxel-based closed-form solution. Results of numerical simulations and mouse experiments show that the self-adaptive Bayesian method significantly improves the CB-XLCT image quality as compared with conventional methods. PMID:27576245

Spatial Bayesian latent factor regression modeling of coordinate-based meta-analysis data.

PubMed

Montagna, Silvia; Wager, Tor; Barrett, Lisa Feldman; Johnson, Timothy D; Nichols, Thomas E

2018-03-01

Now over 20 years old, functional MRI (fMRI) has a large and growing literature that is best synthesised with meta-analytic tools. As most authors do not share image data, only the peak activation coordinates (foci) reported in the article are available for Coordinate-Based Meta-Analysis (CBMA). Neuroimaging meta-analysis is used to (i) identify areas of consistent activation; and (ii) build a predictive model of task type or cognitive process for new studies (reverse inference). To simultaneously address these aims, we propose a Bayesian point process hierarchical model for CBMA. We model the foci from each study as a doubly stochastic Poisson process, where the study-specific log intensity function is characterized as a linear combination of a high-dimensional basis set. A sparse representation of the intensities is guaranteed through latent factor modeling of the basis coefficients. Within our framework, it is also possible to account for the effect of study-level covariates (meta-regression), significantly expanding the capabilities of the current neuroimaging meta-analysis methods available. We apply our methodology to synthetic data and neuroimaging meta-analysis datasets. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Bayesian structural equation modeling in sport and exercise psychology.

PubMed

Stenling, Andreas; Ivarsson, Andreas; Johnson, Urban; Lindwall, Magnus

2015-08-01

Bayesian statistics is on the rise in mainstream psychology, but applications in sport and exercise psychology research are scarce. In this article, the foundations of Bayesian analysis are introduced, and we will illustrate how to apply Bayesian structural equation modeling in a sport and exercise psychology setting. More specifically, we contrasted a confirmatory factor analysis on the Sport Motivation Scale II estimated with the most commonly used estimator, maximum likelihood, and a Bayesian approach with weakly informative priors for cross-loadings and correlated residuals. The results indicated that the model with Bayesian estimation and weakly informative priors provided a good fit to the data, whereas the model estimated with a maximum likelihood estimator did not produce a well-fitting model. The reasons for this discrepancy between maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation are discussed as well as potential advantages and caveats with the Bayesian approach.

OGLE-2008-BLG-355Lb: A massive planet around a late-type star

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koshimoto, N.; Sumi, T.; Fukagawa, M.

2014-06-20

We report the discovery of a massive planet, OGLE-2008-BLG-355Lb. The light curve analysis indicates a planet:host mass ratio of q = 0.0118 ± 0.0006 at a separation of 0.877 ± 0.010 Einstein radii. We do not measure a significant microlensing parallax signal and do not have high angular resolution images that could detect the planetary host star. Therefore, we do not have a direct measurement of the host star mass. A Bayesian analysis, assuming that all host stars have equal probability to host a planet with the measured mass ratio, implies a host star mass of M{sub h}=0.37{sub −0.17}{sup +0.30}more » M{sub ⊙} and a companion of mass M{sub P}=4.6{sub −2.2}{sup +3.7}M{sub J}, at a projected separation of r{sub ⊥}=1.70{sub −0.30}{sup +0.29} AU. The implied distance to the planetary system is D {sub L} = 6.8 ± 1.1 kpc. A planetary system with the properties preferred by the Bayesian analysis may be a challenge to the core accretion model of planet formation, as the core accretion model predicts that massive planets are far more likely to form around more massive host stars. This core accretion model prediction is not consistent with our Bayesian prior of an equal probability of host stars of all masses to host a planet with the measured mass ratio. Thus, if the core accretion model prediction is right, we should expect that follow-up high angular resolution observations will detect a host star with a mass in the upper part of the range allowed by the Bayesian analysis. That is, the host would probably be a K or G dwarf.« less

Data analysis using scale-space filtering and Bayesian probabilistic reasoning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Deepak; Kutulakos, Kiriakos; Robinson, Peter

1991-01-01

This paper describes a program for analysis of output curves from Differential Thermal Analyzer (DTA). The program first extracts probabilistic qualitative features from a DTA curve of a soil sample, and then uses Bayesian probabilistic reasoning to infer the mineral in the soil. The qualifier module employs a simple and efficient extension of scale-space filtering suitable for handling DTA data. We have observed that points can vanish from contours in the scale-space image when filtering operations are not highly accurate. To handle the problem of vanishing points, perceptual organizations heuristics are used to group the points into lines. Next, these lines are grouped into contours by using additional heuristics. Probabilities are associated with these contours using domain-specific correlations. A Bayes tree classifier processes probabilistic features to infer the presence of different minerals in the soil. Experiments show that the algorithm that uses domain-specific correlation to infer qualitative features outperforms a domain-independent algorithm that does not.

Bayesian Statistics for Biological Data: Pedigree Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stanfield, William D.; Carlton, Matthew A.

2004-01-01

The use of Bayes' formula is applied to the biological problem of pedigree analysis to show that the Bayes' formula and non-Bayesian or "classical" methods of probability calculation give different answers. First year college students of biology can be introduced to the Bayesian statistics.

Bayesian Covariate Selection in Mixed-Effects Models For Longitudinal Shape Analysis

PubMed Central

Muralidharan, Prasanna; Fishbaugh, James; Kim, Eun Young; Johnson, Hans J.; Paulsen, Jane S.; Gerig, Guido; Fletcher, P. Thomas

2016-01-01

The goal of longitudinal shape analysis is to understand how anatomical shape changes over time, in response to biological processes, including growth, aging, or disease. In many imaging studies, it is also critical to understand how these shape changes are affected by other factors, such as sex, disease diagnosis, IQ, etc. Current approaches to longitudinal shape analysis have focused on modeling age-related shape changes, but have not included the ability to handle covariates. In this paper, we present a novel Bayesian mixed-effects shape model that incorporates simultaneous relationships between longitudinal shape data and multiple predictors or covariates to the model. Moreover, we place an Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) prior on the parameters, that lets us automatically select which covariates are most relevant to the model based on observed data. We evaluate our proposed model and inference procedure on a longitudinal study of Huntington's disease from PREDICT-HD. We first show the utility of the ARD prior for model selection in a univariate modeling of striatal volume, and next we apply the full high-dimensional longitudinal shape model to putamen shapes. PMID:28090246

Image analysis tools and emerging algorithms for expression proteomics

PubMed Central

English, Jane A.; Lisacek, Frederique; Morris, Jeffrey S.; Yang, Guang-Zhong; Dunn, Michael J.

2012-01-01

Since their origins in academic endeavours in the 1970s, computational analysis tools have matured into a number of established commercial packages that underpin research in expression proteomics. In this paper we describe the image analysis pipeline for the established 2-D Gel Electrophoresis (2-DE) technique of protein separation, and by first covering signal analysis for Mass Spectrometry (MS), we also explain the current image analysis workflow for the emerging high-throughput ‘shotgun’ proteomics platform of Liquid Chromatography coupled to MS (LC/MS). The bioinformatics challenges for both methods are illustrated and compared, whilst existing commercial and academic packages and their workflows are described from both a user’s and a technical perspective. Attention is given to the importance of sound statistical treatment of the resultant quantifications in the search for differential expression. Despite wide availability of proteomics software, a number of challenges have yet to be overcome regarding algorithm accuracy, objectivity and automation, generally due to deterministic spot-centric approaches that discard information early in the pipeline, propagating errors. We review recent advances in signal and image analysis algorithms in 2-DE, MS, LC/MS and Imaging MS. Particular attention is given to wavelet techniques, automated image-based alignment and differential analysis in 2-DE, Bayesian peak mixture models and functional mixed modelling in MS, and group-wise consensus alignment methods for LC/MS. PMID:21046614

Ockham's razor and Bayesian analysis. [statistical theory for systems evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jefferys, William H.; Berger, James O.

1992-01-01

'Ockham's razor', the ad hoc principle enjoining the greatest possible simplicity in theoretical explanations, is presently shown to be justifiable as a consequence of Bayesian inference; Bayesian analysis can, moreover, clarify the nature of the 'simplest' hypothesis consistent with the given data. By choosing the prior probabilities of hypotheses, it becomes possible to quantify the scientific judgment that simpler hypotheses are more likely to be correct. Bayesian analysis also shows that a hypothesis with fewer adjustable parameters intrinsically possesses an enhanced posterior probability, due to the clarity of its predictions.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Bayesian Data Analysis in Astronomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Sanjib

2017-08-01

Markov Chain Monte Carlo based Bayesian data analysis has now become the method of choice for analyzing and interpreting data in almost all disciplines of science. In astronomy, over the last decade, we have also seen a steady increase in the number of papers that employ Monte Carlo based Bayesian analysis. New, efficient Monte Carlo based methods are continuously being developed and explored. In this review, we first explain the basics of Bayesian theory and discuss how to set up data analysis problems within this framework. Next, we provide an overview of various Monte Carlo based methods for performing Bayesian data analysis. Finally, we discuss advanced ideas that enable us to tackle complex problems and thus hold great promise for the future. We also distribute downloadable computer software (available at https://github.com/sanjibs/bmcmc/ ) that implements some of the algorithms and examples discussed here.

A stochastic approach to uncertainty quantification in residual moveout analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johng-Ay, T.; Landa, E.; Dossou-Gbété, S.; Bordes, L.

2015-06-01

Oil and gas exploration and production relies usually on the interpretation of a single seismic image, which is obtained from observed data. However, the statistical nature of seismic data and the various approximations and assumptions are sources of uncertainties which may corrupt the evaluation of parameters. The quantification of these uncertainties is a major issue which supposes to help in decisions that have important social and commercial implications. The residual moveout analysis, which is an important step in seismic data processing is usually performed by a deterministic approach. In this paper we discuss a Bayesian approach to the uncertainty analysis.

Bayesian cloud detection for MERIS, AATSR, and their combination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollstein, A.; Fischer, J.; Carbajal Henken, C.; Preusker, R.

2014-11-01

A broad range of different of Bayesian cloud detection schemes is applied to measurements from the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS), the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR), and their combination. The cloud masks were designed to be numerically efficient and suited for the processing of large amounts of data. Results from the classical and naive approach to Bayesian cloud masking are discussed for MERIS and AATSR as well as for their combination. A sensitivity study on the resolution of multidimensional histograms, which were post-processed by Gaussian smoothing, shows how theoretically insufficient amounts of truth data can be used to set up accurate classical Bayesian cloud masks. Sets of exploited features from single and derived channels are numerically optimized and results for naive and classical Bayesian cloud masks are presented. The application of the Bayesian approach is discussed in terms of reproducing existing algorithms, enhancing existing algorithms, increasing the robustness of existing algorithms, and on setting up new classification schemes based on manually classified scenes.

Bayesian cloud detection for MERIS, AATSR, and their combination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollstein, A.; Fischer, J.; Carbajal Henken, C.; Preusker, R.

2015-04-01

A broad range of different of Bayesian cloud detection schemes is applied to measurements from the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS), the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR), and their combination. The cloud detection schemes were designed to be numerically efficient and suited for the processing of large numbers of data. Results from the classical and naive approach to Bayesian cloud masking are discussed for MERIS and AATSR as well as for their combination. A sensitivity study on the resolution of multidimensional histograms, which were post-processed by Gaussian smoothing, shows how theoretically insufficient numbers of truth data can be used to set up accurate classical Bayesian cloud masks. Sets of exploited features from single and derived channels are numerically optimized and results for naive and classical Bayesian cloud masks are presented. The application of the Bayesian approach is discussed in terms of reproducing existing algorithms, enhancing existing algorithms, increasing the robustness of existing algorithms, and on setting up new classification schemes based on manually classified scenes.

Weak-lensing shear estimates with general adaptive moments, and studies of bias by pixellation, PSF distortions, and noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simon, Patrick; Schneider, Peter

2017-08-01

In weak gravitational lensing, weighted quadrupole moments of the brightness profile in galaxy images are a common way to estimate gravitational shear. We have employed general adaptive moments (GLAM ) to study causes of shear bias on a fundamental level and for a practical definition of an image ellipticity. The GLAM ellipticity has useful properties for any chosen weight profile: the weighted ellipticity is identical to that of isophotes of elliptical images, and in absence of noise and pixellation it is always an unbiased estimator of reduced shear. We show that moment-based techniques, adaptive or unweighted, are similar to a model-based approach in the sense that they can be seen as imperfect fit of an elliptical profile to the image. Due to residuals in the fit, moment-based estimates of ellipticities are prone to underfitting bias when inferred from observed images. The estimation is fundamentally limited mainly by pixellation which destroys information on the original, pre-seeing image. We give an optimised estimator for the pre-seeing GLAM ellipticity and quantify its bias for noise-free images. To deal with images where pixel noise is prominent, we consider a Bayesian approach to infer GLAM ellipticity where, similar to the noise-free case, the ellipticity posterior can be inconsistent with the true ellipticity if we do not properly account for our ignorance about fit residuals. This underfitting bias, quantified in the paper, does not vary with the overall noise level but changes with the pre-seeing brightness profile and the correlation or heterogeneity of pixel noise over the image. Furthermore, when inferring a constant ellipticity or, more relevantly, constant shear from a source sample with a distribution of intrinsic properties (sizes, centroid positions, intrinsic shapes), an additional, now noise-dependent bias arises towards low signal-to-noise if incorrect prior densities for the intrinsic properties are used. We discuss the origin of this prior bias. With regard to a fully-Bayesian lensing analysis, we point out that passing tests with source samples subject to constant shear may not be sufficient for an analysis of sources with varying shear.

Power in Bayesian Mediation Analysis for Small Sample Research

PubMed Central

Miočević, Milica; MacKinnon, David P.; Levy, Roy

2018-01-01

It was suggested that Bayesian methods have potential for increasing power in mediation analysis (Koopman, Howe, Hollenbeck, & Sin, 2015; Yuan & MacKinnon, 2009). This paper compares the power of Bayesian credibility intervals for the mediated effect to the power of normal theory, distribution of the product, percentile, and bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals at N≤ 200. Bayesian methods with diffuse priors have power comparable to the distribution of the product and bootstrap methods, and Bayesian methods with informative priors had the most power. Varying degrees of precision of prior distributions were also examined. Increased precision led to greater power only when N≥ 100 and the effects were small, N < 60 and the effects were large, and N < 200 and the effects were medium. An empirical example from psychology illustrated a Bayesian analysis of the single mediator model from prior selection to interpreting results. PMID:29662296

Power in Bayesian Mediation Analysis for Small Sample Research.

PubMed

Miočević, Milica; MacKinnon, David P; Levy, Roy

2017-01-01

It was suggested that Bayesian methods have potential for increasing power in mediation analysis (Koopman, Howe, Hollenbeck, & Sin, 2015; Yuan & MacKinnon, 2009). This paper compares the power of Bayesian credibility intervals for the mediated effect to the power of normal theory, distribution of the product, percentile, and bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals at N≤ 200. Bayesian methods with diffuse priors have power comparable to the distribution of the product and bootstrap methods, and Bayesian methods with informative priors had the most power. Varying degrees of precision of prior distributions were also examined. Increased precision led to greater power only when N≥ 100 and the effects were small, N < 60 and the effects were large, and N < 200 and the effects were medium. An empirical example from psychology illustrated a Bayesian analysis of the single mediator model from prior selection to interpreting results.

Bayesian methods including nonrandomized study data increased the efficiency of postlaunch RCTs.

PubMed

Schmidt, Amand F; Klugkist, Irene; Klungel, Olaf H; Nielen, Mirjam; de Boer, Anthonius; Hoes, Arno W; Groenwold, Rolf H H

2015-04-01

Findings from nonrandomized studies on safety or efficacy of treatment in patient subgroups may trigger postlaunch randomized clinical trials (RCTs). In the analysis of such RCTs, results from nonrandomized studies are typically ignored. This study explores the trade-off between bias and power of Bayesian RCT analysis incorporating information from nonrandomized studies. A simulation study was conducted to compare frequentist with Bayesian analyses using noninformative and informative priors in their ability to detect interaction effects. In simulated subgroups, the effect of a hypothetical treatment differed between subgroups (odds ratio 1.00 vs. 2.33). Simulations varied in sample size, proportions of the subgroups, and specification of the priors. As expected, the results for the informative Bayesian analyses were more biased than those from the noninformative Bayesian analysis or frequentist analysis. However, because of a reduction in posterior variance, informative Bayesian analyses were generally more powerful to detect an effect. In scenarios where the informative priors were in the opposite direction of the RCT data, type 1 error rates could be 100% and power 0%. Bayesian methods incorporating data from nonrandomized studies can meaningfully increase power of interaction tests in postlaunch RCTs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Collection Fusion Using Bayesian Estimation of a Linear Regression Model in Image Databases on the Web.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Deok-Hwan; Chung, Chin-Wan

2003-01-01

Discusses the collection fusion problem of image databases, concerned with retrieving relevant images by content based retrieval from image databases distributed on the Web. Focuses on a metaserver which selects image databases supporting similarity measures and proposes a new algorithm which exploits a probabilistic technique using Bayesian…

Bayesian superresolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isakson, Steve Wesley

2001-12-01

Well-known principles of physics explain why resolution restrictions occur in images produced by optical diffraction-limited systems. The limitations involved are present in all diffraction-limited imaging systems, including acoustical and microwave. In most circumstances, however, prior knowledge about the object and the imaging system can lead to resolution improvements. In this dissertation I outline a method to incorporate prior information into the process of reconstructing images to superresolve the object beyond the above limitations. This dissertation research develops the details of this methodology. The approach can provide the most-probable global solution employing a finite number of steps in both far-field and near-field images. In addition, in order to overcome the effects of noise present in any imaging system, this technique provides a weighted image that quantifies the likelihood of various imaging solutions. By utilizing Bayesian probability, the procedure is capable of incorporating prior information about both the object and the noise to overcome the resolution limitation present in many imaging systems. Finally I will present an imaging system capable of detecting the evanescent waves missing from far-field systems, thus improving the resolution further.

XID+: Next generation XID development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurley, Peter

2017-04-01

XID+ is a prior-based source extraction tool which carries out photometry in the Herschel SPIRE (Spectral and Photometric Imaging Receiver) maps at the positions of known sources. It uses a probabilistic Bayesian framework that provides a natural framework in which to include prior information, and uses the Bayesian inference tool Stan to obtain the full posterior probability distribution on flux estimates.

Unsupervised Unmixing of Hyperspectral Images Accounting for Endmember Variability.

PubMed

Halimi, Abderrahim; Dobigeon, Nicolas; Tourneret, Jean-Yves

2015-12-01

This paper presents an unsupervised Bayesian algorithm for hyperspectral image unmixing, accounting for endmember variability. The pixels are modeled by a linear combination of endmembers weighted by their corresponding abundances. However, the endmembers are assumed random to consider their variability in the image. An additive noise is also considered in the proposed model, generalizing the normal compositional model. The proposed algorithm exploits the whole image to benefit from both spectral and spatial information. It estimates both the mean and the covariance matrix of each endmember in the image. This allows the behavior of each material to be analyzed and its variability to be quantified in the scene. A spatial segmentation is also obtained based on the estimated abundances. In order to estimate the parameters associated with the proposed Bayesian model, we propose to use a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm. The performance of the resulting unmixing strategy is evaluated through simulations conducted on both synthetic and real data.

Experience With Bayesian Image Based Surface Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stutz, John C.

2005-01-01

Bayesian surface modeling from images requires modeling both the surface and the image generation process, in order to optimize the models by comparing actual and generated images. Thus it differs greatly, both conceptually and in computational difficulty, from conventional stereo surface recovery techniques. But it offers the possibility of using any number of images, taken under quite different conditions, and by different instruments that provide independent and often complementary information, to generate a single surface model that fuses all available information. I describe an implemented system, with a brief introduction to the underlying mathematical models and the compromises made for computational efficiency. I describe successes and failures achieved on actual imagery, where we went wrong and what we did right, and how our approach could be improved. Lastly I discuss how the same approach can be extended to distinct types of instruments, to achieve true sensor fusion.

Dynamic Bayesian network modeling for longitudinal brain morphometry

PubMed Central

Chen, Rong; Resnick, Susan M; Davatzikos, Christos; Herskovits, Edward H

2011-01-01

Identifying interactions among brain regions from structural magnetic-resonance images presents one of the major challenges in computational neuroanatomy. We propose a Bayesian data-mining approach to the detection of longitudinal morphological changes in the human brain. Our method uses a dynamic Bayesian network to represent evolving inter-regional dependencies. The major advantage of dynamic Bayesian network modeling is that it can represent complicated interactions among temporal processes. We validated our approach by analyzing a simulated atrophy study, and found that this approach requires only a small number of samples to detect the ground-truth temporal model. We further applied dynamic Bayesian network modeling to a longitudinal study of normal aging and mild cognitive impairment — the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging. We found that interactions among regional volume-change rates for the mild cognitive impairment group are different from those for the normal-aging group. PMID:21963916

Bayesian estimation of seasonal course of canopy leaf area index from hyperspectral satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varvia, Petri; Rautiainen, Miina; Seppänen, Aku

2018-03-01

In this paper, Bayesian inversion of a physically-based forest reflectance model is investigated to estimate of boreal forest canopy leaf area index (LAI) from EO-1 Hyperion hyperspectral data. The data consist of multiple forest stands with different species compositions and structures, imaged in three phases of the growing season. The Bayesian estimates of canopy LAI are compared to reference estimates based on a spectral vegetation index. The forest reflectance model contains also other unknown variables in addition to LAI, for example leaf single scattering albedo and understory reflectance. In the Bayesian approach, these variables are estimated simultaneously with LAI. The feasibility and seasonal variation of these estimates is also examined. Credible intervals for the estimates are also calculated and evaluated. The results show that the Bayesian inversion approach is significantly better than using a comparable spectral vegetation index regression.

Multinomial Bayesian learning for modeling classical and nonclassical receptive field properties.

PubMed

Hosoya, Haruo

2012-08-01

We study the interplay of Bayesian inference and natural image learning in a hierarchical vision system, in relation to the response properties of early visual cortex. We particularly focus on a Bayesian network with multinomial variables that can represent discrete feature spaces similar to hypercolumns combining minicolumns, enforce sparsity of activation to learn efficient representations, and explain divisive normalization. We demonstrate that maximal-likelihood learning using sampling-based Bayesian inference gives rise to classical receptive field properties similar to V1 simple cells and V2 cells, while inference performed on the trained network yields nonclassical context-dependent response properties such as cross-orientation suppression and filling in. Comparison with known physiological properties reveals some qualitative and quantitative similarities.

Moving beyond qualitative evaluations of Bayesian models of cognition.

PubMed

Hemmer, Pernille; Tauber, Sean; Steyvers, Mark

2015-06-01

Bayesian models of cognition provide a powerful way to understand the behavior and goals of individuals from a computational point of view. Much of the focus in the Bayesian cognitive modeling approach has been on qualitative model evaluations, where predictions from the models are compared to data that is often averaged over individuals. In many cognitive tasks, however, there are pervasive individual differences. We introduce an approach to directly infer individual differences related to subjective mental representations within the framework of Bayesian models of cognition. In this approach, Bayesian data analysis methods are used to estimate cognitive parameters and motivate the inference process within a Bayesian cognitive model. We illustrate this integrative Bayesian approach on a model of memory. We apply the model to behavioral data from a memory experiment involving the recall of heights of people. A cross-validation analysis shows that the Bayesian memory model with inferred subjective priors predicts withheld data better than a Bayesian model where the priors are based on environmental statistics. In addition, the model with inferred priors at the individual subject level led to the best overall generalization performance, suggesting that individual differences are important to consider in Bayesian models of cognition.

A Preliminary Bayesian Analysis of Incomplete Longitudinal Data from a Small Sample: Methodological Advances in an International Comparative Study of Educational Inequality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hsieh, Chueh-An; Maier, Kimberly S.

2009-01-01

The capacity of Bayesian methods in estimating complex statistical models is undeniable. Bayesian data analysis is seen as having a range of advantages, such as an intuitive probabilistic interpretation of the parameters of interest, the efficient incorporation of prior information to empirical data analysis, model averaging and model selection.…

Bayesian denoising in digital radiography: a comparison in the dental field.

PubMed

Frosio, I; Olivieri, C; Lucchese, M; Borghese, N A; Boccacci, P

2013-01-01

We compared two Bayesian denoising algorithms for digital radiographs, based on Total Variation regularization and wavelet decomposition. The comparison was performed on simulated radiographs with different photon counts and frequency content and on real dental radiographs. Four different quality indices were considered to quantify the quality of the filtered radiographs. The experimental results suggested that Total Variation is more suited to preserve fine anatomical details, whereas wavelets produce images of higher quality at global scale; they also highlighted the need for more reliable image quality indices. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian analysis of X-ray jet features of the high redshift quasar jets observed with Chandra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKeough, Kathryn; Siemiginowska, Aneta; Kashyap, Vinay; Stein, Nathan; Cheung, Chi C.

2015-01-01

X-ray emission of powerful quasar jets may be a result of the inverse Compton (IC) process in which the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) photons gain energy by interactions with the jet's relativistic electrons. However, there is no definite evidence that IC/CMB process is responsible for the observed X-ray emission of large scale jets. A step toward understanding the X-ray emission process is to study the Radio and X-ray morphologies of the jet. Results from Chandra X-ray and multi-frequency VLA imaging observations of a sample of 11 high- redshift (z > 2) quasars with kilo-parsec scale radio jets are reported. The sample consists of a set of four z ≥ 3.6 flat-spectrum radio quasars, and seven intermediate redshift (z = 2.1 - 2.9) quasars comprised of four sources with integrated steep radio spectra and three with flat radio spectra.We implement a Bayesian image analysis program, Low-count Image Reconstruction and Analysis (LIRA) , to analyze jet features in the X-ray images of the high redshift quasars. Out of the 36 regions where knots are visible in the radio jets, nine showed detectable X-ray emission. Significant detections are based on the upper bound p-value test based on LIRA simulations. The X-ray and radio properties of this sample combined are examined and compared to lower-redshift samples.This work is supported in part by the National Science Foundation REU and the Department of Defense ASSURE programs under NSF Grant no.1262851 and by the Smithsonian Institution, and by NASA Contract NAS8-39073 to the Chandra X-ray Center (CXC). This research has made use of data obtained from the Chandra Data Archive and Chandra Source Catalog, and software provided by the CXC in the application packages CIAO, ChIPS, and Sherpa. Work is also supported by the Chandra grant GO4-15099X.

Filtering and left ventricle segmentation of the fetal heart in ultrasound images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vargas-Quintero, Lorena; Escalante-Ramírez, Boris

2013-11-01

In this paper, we propose to use filtering methods and a segmentation algorithm for the analysis of fetal heart in ultrasound images. Since noise speckle makes difficult the analysis of ultrasound images, the filtering process becomes a useful task in these types of applications. The filtering techniques consider in this work assume that the speckle noise is a random variable with a Rayleigh distribution. We use two multiresolution methods: one based on wavelet decomposition and the another based on the Hermite transform. The filtering process is used as way to strengthen the performance of the segmentation tasks. For the wavelet-based approach, a Bayesian estimator at subband level for pixel classification is employed. The Hermite method computes a mask to find those pixels that are corrupted by speckle. On the other hand, we picked out a method based on a deformable model or "snake" to evaluate the influence of the filtering techniques in the segmentation task of left ventricle in fetal echocardiographic images.

Recognition of degraded handwritten digits using dynamic Bayesian networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Likforman-Sulem, Laurence; Sigelle, Marc

2007-01-01

We investigate in this paper the application of dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) to the recognition of handwritten digits. The main idea is to couple two separate HMMs into various architectures. First, a vertical HMM and a horizontal HMM are built observing the evolving streams of image columns and image rows respectively. Then, two coupled architectures are proposed to model interactions between these two streams and to capture the 2D nature of character images. Experiments performed on the MNIST handwritten digit database show that coupled architectures yield better recognition performances than non-coupled ones. Additional experiments conducted on artificially degraded (broken) characters demonstrate that coupled architectures better cope with such degradation than non coupled ones and than discriminative methods such as SVMs.

Informative Bayesian Type A uncertainty evaluation, especially applicable to a small number of observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, M.; Shirono, K.

2017-10-01

A criticism levelled at the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) is that it is based on a mixture of frequentist and Bayesian thinking. In particular, the GUM’s Type A (statistical) uncertainty evaluations are frequentist, whereas the Type B evaluations, using state-of-knowledge distributions, are Bayesian. In contrast, making the GUM fully Bayesian implies, among other things, that a conventional objective Bayesian approach to Type A uncertainty evaluation for a number n of observations leads to the impractical consequence that n must be at least equal to 4, thus presenting a difficulty for many metrologists. This paper presents a Bayesian analysis of Type A uncertainty evaluation that applies for all n ≥slant 2 , as in the frequentist analysis in the current GUM. The analysis is based on assuming that the observations are drawn from a normal distribution (as in the conventional objective Bayesian analysis), but uses an informative prior based on lower and upper bounds for the standard deviation of the sampling distribution for the quantity under consideration. The main outcome of the analysis is a closed-form mathematical expression for the factor by which the standard deviation of the mean observation should be multiplied to calculate the required standard uncertainty. Metrological examples are used to illustrate the approach, which is straightforward to apply using a formula or look-up table.

Logarithmic Laplacian Prior Based Bayesian Inverse Synthetic Aperture Radar Imaging.

PubMed

Zhang, Shuanghui; Liu, Yongxiang; Li, Xiang; Bi, Guoan

2016-04-28

This paper presents a novel Inverse Synthetic Aperture Radar Imaging (ISAR) algorithm based on a new sparse prior, known as the logarithmic Laplacian prior. The newly proposed logarithmic Laplacian prior has a narrower main lobe with higher tail values than the Laplacian prior, which helps to achieve performance improvement on sparse representation. The logarithmic Laplacian prior is used for ISAR imaging within the Bayesian framework to achieve better focused radar image. In the proposed method of ISAR imaging, the phase errors are jointly estimated based on the minimum entropy criterion to accomplish autofocusing. The maximum a posterior (MAP) estimation and the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) are utilized to estimate the model parameters to avoid manually tuning process. Additionally, the fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and Hadamard product are used to minimize the required computational efficiency. Experimental results based on both simulated and measured data validate that the proposed algorithm outperforms the traditional sparse ISAR imaging algorithms in terms of resolution improvement and noise suppression.

Bayesian image reconstruction - The pixon and optimal image modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pina, R. K.; Puetter, R. C.

1993-01-01

In this paper we describe the optimal image model, maximum residual likelihood method (OptMRL) for image reconstruction. OptMRL is a Bayesian image reconstruction technique for removing point-spread function blurring. OptMRL uses both a goodness-of-fit criterion (GOF) and an 'image prior', i.e., a function which quantifies the a priori probability of the image. Unlike standard maximum entropy methods, which typically reconstruct the image on the data pixel grid, OptMRL varies the image model in order to find the optimal functional basis with which to represent the image. We show how an optimal basis for image representation can be selected and in doing so, develop the concept of the 'pixon' which is a generalized image cell from which this basis is constructed. By allowing both the image and the image representation to be variable, the OptMRL method greatly increases the volume of solution space over which the image is optimized. Hence the likelihood of the final reconstructed image is greatly increased. For the goodness-of-fit criterion, OptMRL uses the maximum residual likelihood probability distribution introduced previously by Pina and Puetter (1992). This GOF probability distribution, which is based on the spatial autocorrelation of the residuals, has the advantage that it ensures spatially uncorrelated image reconstruction residuals.

FISH Finder: a high-throughput tool for analyzing FISH images

PubMed Central

Shirley, James W.; Ty, Sereyvathana; Takebayashi, Shin-ichiro; Liu, Xiuwen; Gilbert, David M.

2011-01-01

Motivation: Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) is used to study the organization and the positioning of specific DNA sequences within the cell nucleus. Analyzing the data from FISH images is a tedious process that invokes an element of subjectivity. Automated FISH image analysis offers savings in time as well as gaining the benefit of objective data analysis. While several FISH image analysis software tools have been developed, they often use a threshold-based segmentation algorithm for nucleus segmentation. As fluorescence signal intensities can vary significantly from experiment to experiment, from cell to cell, and within a cell, threshold-based segmentation is inflexible and often insufficient for automatic image analysis, leading to additional manual segmentation and potential subjective bias. To overcome these problems, we developed a graphical software tool called FISH Finder to automatically analyze FISH images that vary significantly. By posing the nucleus segmentation as a classification problem, compound Bayesian classifier is employed so that contextual information is utilized, resulting in reliable classification and boundary extraction. This makes it possible to analyze FISH images efficiently and objectively without adjustment of input parameters. Additionally, FISH Finder was designed to analyze the distances between differentially stained FISH probes. Availability: FISH Finder is a standalone MATLAB application and platform independent software. The program is freely available from: http://code.google.com/p/fishfinder/downloads/list Contact: gilbert@bio.fsu.edu PMID:21310746

A Bayesian analysis of redshifted 21-cm H I signal and foregrounds: simulations for LOFAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Abhik; Koopmans, Léon V. E.; Chapman, E.; Jelić, V.

2015-09-01

Observations of the epoch of reionization (EoR) using the 21-cm hyperfine emission of neutral hydrogen (H I) promise to open an entirely new window on the formation of the first stars, galaxies and accreting black holes. In order to characterize the weak 21-cm signal, we need to develop imaging techniques that can reconstruct the extended emission very precisely. Here, we present an inversion technique for LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR) baselines at the North Celestial Pole (NCP), based on a Bayesian formalism with optimal spatial regularization, which is used to reconstruct the diffuse foreground map directly from the simulated visibility data. We notice that the spatial regularization de-noises the images to a large extent, allowing one to recover the 21-cm power spectrum over a considerable k⊥-k∥ space in the range 0.03 Mpc-1 < k⊥ < 0.19 Mpc-1 and 0.14 Mpc-1 < k∥ < 0.35 Mpc-1 without subtracting the noise power spectrum. We find that, in combination with using generalized morphological component analysis (GMCA), a non-parametric foreground removal technique, we can mostly recover the spherical average power spectrum within 2σ statistical fluctuations for an input Gaussian random root-mean-square noise level of 60 mK in the maps after 600 h of integration over a 10-MHz bandwidth.

An Exploratory Study Examining the Feasibility of Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Circuit Analysis Understanding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chung, Gregory K. W. K.; Dionne, Gary B.; Kaiser, William J.

2006-01-01

Our research question was whether we could develop a feasible technique, using Bayesian networks, to diagnose gaps in student knowledge. Thirty-four college-age participants completed tasks designed to measure conceptual knowledge, procedural knowledge, and problem-solving skills related to circuit analysis. A Bayesian network was used to model…

A comprehensive probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, C.; Qin, T. X.; Jiang, B.; Huang, C.

2018-02-01

Oil pipelines network is one of the most important facilities of energy transportation. But oil pipelines network accident may result in serious disasters. Some analysis models for these accidents have been established mainly based on three methods, including event-tree, accident simulation and Bayesian network. Among these methods, Bayesian network is suitable for probabilistic analysis. But not all the important influencing factors are considered and the deployment rule of the factors has not been established. This paper proposed a probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network. Most of the important influencing factors, including the key environment condition and emergency response are considered in this model. Moreover, the paper also introduces a deployment rule for these factors. The model can be used in probabilistic analysis and sensitive analysis of oil pipelines network accident.

Using SPM 12’s Second-Level Bayesian Inference Procedure for fMRI Analysis: Practical Guidelines for End Users

PubMed Central

Han, Hyemin; Park, Joonsuk

2018-01-01

Recent debates about the conventional traditional threshold used in the fields of neuroscience and psychology, namely P < 0.05, have spurred researchers to consider alternative ways to analyze fMRI data. A group of methodologists and statisticians have considered Bayesian inference as a candidate methodology. However, few previous studies have attempted to provide end users of fMRI analysis tools, such as SPM 12, with practical guidelines about how to conduct Bayesian inference. In the present study, we aim to demonstrate how to utilize Bayesian inference, Bayesian second-level inference in particular, implemented in SPM 12 by analyzing fMRI data available to public via NeuroVault. In addition, to help end users understand how Bayesian inference actually works in SPM 12, we examine outcomes from Bayesian second-level inference implemented in SPM 12 by comparing them with those from classical second-level inference. Finally, we provide practical guidelines about how to set the parameters for Bayesian inference and how to interpret the results, such as Bayes factors, from the inference. We also discuss the practical and philosophical benefits of Bayesian inference and directions for future research. PMID:29456498

An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology.

PubMed

Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly M; Clifton, James P; van de Schoot, Rens; Tiemensma, Jitske

2017-09-01

The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of health psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation models, latent growth curve (and mixture) models, and hierarchical linear models. Likewise, Bayesian methods can be used with small sample sizes since they do not rely on large sample theory. In this article, we discuss several important components of Bayesian statistics as they relate to health-based inquiries. We discuss the incorporation and impact of prior knowledge into the estimation process and the different components of the analysis that should be reported in an article. We present an example implementing Bayesian estimation in the context of blood pressure changes after participants experienced an acute stressor. We conclude with final thoughts on the implementation of Bayesian statistics in health psychology, including suggestions for reviewing Bayesian manuscripts and grant proposals. We have also included an extensive amount of online supplementary material to complement the content presented here, including Bayesian examples using many different software programmes and an extensive sensitivity analysis examining the impact of priors.

Bayesian function-on-function regression for multilevel functional data.

PubMed

Meyer, Mark J; Coull, Brent A; Versace, Francesco; Cinciripini, Paul; Morris, Jeffrey S

2015-09-01

Medical and public health research increasingly involves the collection of complex and high dimensional data. In particular, functional data-where the unit of observation is a curve or set of curves that are finely sampled over a grid-is frequently obtained. Moreover, researchers often sample multiple curves per person resulting in repeated functional measures. A common question is how to analyze the relationship between two functional variables. We propose a general function-on-function regression model for repeatedly sampled functional data on a fine grid, presenting a simple model as well as a more extensive mixed model framework, and introducing various functional Bayesian inferential procedures that account for multiple testing. We examine these models via simulation and a data analysis with data from a study that used event-related potentials to examine how the brain processes various types of images. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

Uncertainty aggregation and reduction in structure-material performance prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zhen; Mahadevan, Sankaran; Ao, Dan

2018-02-01

An uncertainty aggregation and reduction framework is presented for structure-material performance prediction. Different types of uncertainty sources, structural analysis model, and material performance prediction model are connected through a Bayesian network for systematic uncertainty aggregation analysis. To reduce the uncertainty in the computational structure-material performance prediction model, Bayesian updating using experimental observation data is investigated based on the Bayesian network. It is observed that the Bayesian updating results will have large error if the model cannot accurately represent the actual physics, and that this error will be propagated to the predicted performance distribution. To address this issue, this paper proposes a novel uncertainty reduction method by integrating Bayesian calibration with model validation adaptively. The observation domain of the quantity of interest is first discretized into multiple segments. An adaptive algorithm is then developed to perform model validation and Bayesian updating over these observation segments sequentially. Only information from observation segments where the model prediction is highly reliable is used for Bayesian updating; this is found to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of uncertainty reduction. A composite rotorcraft hub component fatigue life prediction model, which combines a finite element structural analysis model and a material damage model, is used to demonstrate the proposed method.

A Two-Step Bayesian Approach for Propensity Score Analysis: Simulations and Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

2012-01-01

A two-step Bayesian propensity score approach is introduced that incorporates prior information in the propensity score equation and outcome equation without the problems associated with simultaneous Bayesian propensity score approaches. The corresponding variance estimators are also provided. The two-step Bayesian propensity score is provided for…

Bayesian Scalar-on-Image Regression with Application to Association Between Intracranial DTI and Cognitive Outcomes

PubMed Central

Huang, Lei; Goldsmith, Jeff; Reiss, Philip T.; Reich, Daniel S.; Crainiceanu, Ciprian M.

2013-01-01

Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) measures water diffusion within white matter, allowing for in vivo quantification of brain pathways. These pathways often subserve specific functions, and impairment of those functions is often associated with imaging abnormalities. As a method for predicting clinical disability from DTI images, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian “scalar-on-image” regression procedure. Our procedure introduces a latent binary map that estimates the locations of predictive voxels and penalizes the magnitude of effect sizes in these voxels, thereby resolving the ill-posed nature of the problem. By inducing a spatial prior structure, the procedure yields a sparse association map that also maintains spatial continuity of predictive regions. The method is demonstrated on a simulation study and on a study of association between fractional anisotropy and cognitive disability in a cross-sectional sample of 135 multiple sclerosis patients. PMID:23792220

A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach to Image Super-Resolution.

PubMed

Polatkan, Gungor; Zhou, Mingyuan; Carin, Lawrence; Blei, David; Daubechies, Ingrid

2015-02-01

Super-resolution methods form high-resolution images from low-resolution images. In this paper, we develop a new Bayesian nonparametric model for super-resolution. Our method uses a beta-Bernoulli process to learn a set of recurring visual patterns, called dictionary elements, from the data. Because it is nonparametric, the number of elements found is also determined from the data. We test the results on both benchmark and natural images, comparing with several other models from the research literature. We perform large-scale human evaluation experiments to assess the visual quality of the results. In a first implementation, we use Gibbs sampling to approximate the posterior. However, this algorithm is not feasible for large-scale data. To circumvent this, we then develop an online variational Bayes (VB) algorithm. This algorithm finds high quality dictionaries in a fraction of the time needed by the Gibbs sampler.

Brain white matter fiber estimation and tractography using Q-ball imaging and Bayesian MODEL.

PubMed

Lu, Meng

2015-01-01

Diffusion tensor imaging allows for the non-invasive in vivo mapping of the brain tractography. However, fiber bundles have complex structures such as fiber crossings, fiber branchings and fibers with large curvatures that tensor imaging (DTI) cannot accurately handle. This study presents a novel brain white matter tractography method using Q-ball imaging as the data source instead of DTI, because QBI can provide accurate information about multiple fiber crossings and branchings in a single voxel using an orientation distribution function (ODF). The presented method also uses graph theory to construct the Bayesian model-based graph, so that the fiber tracking between two voxels can be represented as the shortest path in a graph. Our experiment showed that our new method can accurately handle brain white matter fiber crossings and branchings, and reconstruct brain tractograhpy both in phantom data and real brain data.

Axial superresolution via multiangle TIRF microscopy with sequential imaging and photobleaching

PubMed Central

Fu, Yan; Winter, Peter W.; Rojas, Raul; Wang, Victor; McAuliffe, Matthew; Patterson, George H.

2016-01-01

We report superresolution optical sectioning using a multiangle total internal reflection fluorescence (TIRF) microscope. TIRF images were constructed from several layers within a normal TIRF excitation zone by sequentially imaging and photobleaching the fluorescent molecules. The depth of the evanescent wave at different layers was altered by tuning the excitation light incident angle. The angle was tuned from the highest (the smallest TIRF depth) toward the critical angle (the largest TIRF depth) to preferentially photobleach fluorescence from the lower layers and allow straightforward observation of deeper structures without masking by the brighter signals closer to the coverglass. Reconstruction of the TIRF images enabled 3D imaging of biological samples with 20-nm axial resolution. Two-color imaging of epidermal growth factor (EGF) ligand and clathrin revealed the dynamics of EGF-activated clathrin-mediated endocytosis during internalization. Furthermore, Bayesian analysis of images collected during the photobleaching step of each plane enabled lateral superresolution (<100 nm) within each of the sections. PMID:27044072

Prior elicitation and Bayesian analysis of the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial.

PubMed

See, Craig W; Srinivasan, Muthiah; Saravanan, Somu; Oldenburg, Catherine E; Esterberg, Elizabeth J; Ray, Kathryn J; Glaser, Tanya S; Tu, Elmer Y; Zegans, Michael E; McLeod, Stephen D; Acharya, Nisha R; Lietman, Thomas M

2012-12-01

To elicit expert opinion on the use of adjunctive corticosteroid therapy in bacterial corneal ulcers. To perform a Bayesian analysis of the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial (SCUT), using expert opinion as a prior probability. The SCUT was a placebo-controlled trial assessing visual outcomes in patients receiving topical corticosteroids or placebo as adjunctive therapy for bacterial keratitis. Questionnaires were conducted at scientific meetings in India and North America to gauge expert consensus on the perceived benefit of corticosteroids as adjunct treatment. Bayesian analysis, using the questionnaire data as a prior probability and the primary outcome of SCUT as a likelihood, was performed. For comparison, an additional Bayesian analysis was performed using the results of the SCUT pilot study as a prior distribution. Indian respondents believed there to be a 1.21 Snellen line improvement, and North American respondents believed there to be a 1.24 line improvement with corticosteroid therapy. The SCUT primary outcome found a non-significant 0.09 Snellen line benefit with corticosteroid treatment. The results of the Bayesian analysis estimated a slightly greater benefit than did the SCUT primary analysis (0.19 lines verses 0.09 lines). Indian and North American experts had similar expectations on the effectiveness of corticosteroids in bacterial corneal ulcers; that corticosteroids would markedly improve visual outcomes. Bayesian analysis produced results very similar to those produced by the SCUT primary analysis. The similarity in result is likely due to the large sample size of SCUT and helps validate the results of SCUT.

Careful with Those Priors: A Note on Bayesian Estimation in Two-Parameter Logistic Item Response Theory Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marcoulides, Katerina M.

2018-01-01

This study examined the use of Bayesian analysis methods for the estimation of item parameters in a two-parameter logistic item response theory model. Using simulated data under various design conditions with both informative and non-informative priors, the parameter recovery of Bayesian analysis methods were examined. Overall results showed that…

A bayesian approach to classification criteria for spectacled eiders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, B.L.; Wade, P.R.; Stehn, R.A.; Cochrane, J.F.

1996-01-01

To facilitate decisions to classify species according to risk of extinction, we used Bayesian methods to analyze trend data for the Spectacled Eider, an arctic sea duck. Trend data from three independent surveys of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta were analyzed individually and in combination to yield posterior distributions for population growth rates. We used classification criteria developed by the recovery team for Spectacled Eiders that seek to equalize errors of under- or overprotecting the species. We conducted both a Bayesian decision analysis and a frequentist (classical statistical inference) decision analysis. Bayesian decision analyses are computationally easier, yield basically the same results, and yield results that are easier to explain to nonscientists. With the exception of the aerial survey analysis of the 10 most recent years, both Bayesian and frequentist methods indicated that an endangered classification is warranted. The discrepancy between surveys warrants further research. Although the trend data are abundance indices, we used a preliminary estimate of absolute abundance to demonstrate how to calculate extinction distributions using the joint probability distributions for population growth rate and variance in growth rate generated by the Bayesian analysis. Recent apparent increases in abundance highlight the need for models that apply to declining and then recovering species.

Hybrid-coded 3D structured illumination imaging with Bayesian estimation (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hsi-Hsun; Luo, Yuan; Singh, Vijay R.

2016-03-01

Light induced fluorescent microscopy has long been developed to observe and understand the object at microscale, such as cellular sample. However, the transfer function of lense-based imaging system limits the resolution so that the fine and detailed structure of sample cannot be identified clearly. The techniques of resolution enhancement are fascinated to break the limit of resolution for objective given. In the past decades, the resolution enhancement imaging has been investigated through variety of strategies, including photoactivated localization microscopy (PALM), stochastic optical reconstruction microscopy (STORM), stimulated emission depletion (STED), and structure illuminated microscopy (SIM). In those methods, only SIM can intrinsically improve the resolution limit for a system without taking the structure properties of object into account. In this paper, we develop a SIM associated with Bayesian estimation, furthermore, with optical sectioning capability rendered from HiLo processing, resulting the high resolution through 3D volume. This 3D SIM can provide the optical sectioning and resolution enhancement performance, and be robust to noise owing to the Data driven Bayesian estimation reconstruction proposed. For validating the 3D SIM, we show our simulation result of algorithm, and the experimental result demonstrating the 3D resolution enhancement.

CytoBayesJ: software tools for Bayesian analysis of cytogenetic radiation dosimetry data.

PubMed

Ainsbury, Elizabeth A; Vinnikov, Volodymyr; Puig, Pedro; Maznyk, Nataliya; Rothkamm, Kai; Lloyd, David C

2013-08-30

A number of authors have suggested that a Bayesian approach may be most appropriate for analysis of cytogenetic radiation dosimetry data. In the Bayesian framework, probability of an event is described in terms of previous expectations and uncertainty. Previously existing, or prior, information is used in combination with experimental results to infer probabilities or the likelihood that a hypothesis is true. It has been shown that the Bayesian approach increases both the accuracy and quality assurance of radiation dose estimates. New software entitled CytoBayesJ has been developed with the aim of bringing Bayesian analysis to cytogenetic biodosimetry laboratory practice. CytoBayesJ takes a number of Bayesian or 'Bayesian like' methods that have been proposed in the literature and presents them to the user in the form of simple user-friendly tools, including testing for the most appropriate model for distribution of chromosome aberrations and calculations of posterior probability distributions. The individual tools are described in detail and relevant examples of the use of the methods and the corresponding CytoBayesJ software tools are given. In this way, the suitability of the Bayesian approach to biological radiation dosimetry is highlighted and its wider application encouraged by providing a user-friendly software interface and manual in English and Russian. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian data analysis in observational comparative effectiveness research: rationale and examples.

PubMed

Olson, William H; Crivera, Concetta; Ma, Yi-Wen; Panish, Jessica; Mao, Lian; Lynch, Scott M

2013-11-01

Many comparative effectiveness research and patient-centered outcomes research studies will need to be observational for one or both of two reasons: first, randomized trials are expensive and time-consuming; and second, only observational studies can answer some research questions. It is generally recognized that there is a need to increase the scientific validity and efficiency of observational studies. Bayesian methods for the design and analysis of observational studies are scientifically valid and offer many advantages over frequentist methods, including, importantly, the ability to conduct comparative effectiveness research/patient-centered outcomes research more efficiently. Bayesian data analysis is being introduced into outcomes studies that we are conducting. Our purpose here is to describe our view of some of the advantages of Bayesian methods for observational studies and to illustrate both realized and potential advantages by describing studies we are conducting in which various Bayesian methods have been or could be implemented.

Using Bayesian analysis in repeated preclinical in vivo studies for a more effective use of animals.

PubMed

Walley, Rosalind; Sherington, John; Rastrick, Joe; Detrait, Eric; Hanon, Etienne; Watt, Gillian

2016-05-01

Whilst innovative Bayesian approaches are increasingly used in clinical studies, in the preclinical area Bayesian methods appear to be rarely used in the reporting of pharmacology data. This is particularly surprising in the context of regularly repeated in vivo studies where there is a considerable amount of data from historical control groups, which has potential value. This paper describes our experience with introducing Bayesian analysis for such studies using a Bayesian meta-analytic predictive approach. This leads naturally either to an informative prior for a control group as part of a full Bayesian analysis of the next study or using a predictive distribution to replace a control group entirely. We use quality control charts to illustrate study-to-study variation to the scientists and describe informative priors in terms of their approximate effective numbers of animals. We describe two case studies of animal models: the lipopolysaccharide-induced cytokine release model used in inflammation and the novel object recognition model used to screen cognitive enhancers, both of which show the advantage of a Bayesian approach over the standard frequentist analysis. We conclude that using Bayesian methods in stable repeated in vivo studies can result in a more effective use of animals, either by reducing the total number of animals used or by increasing the precision of key treatment differences. This will lead to clearer results and supports the "3Rs initiative" to Refine, Reduce and Replace animals in research. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bayesian spatial transformation models with applications in neuroimaging data

PubMed Central

Miranda, Michelle F.; Zhu, Hongtu; Ibrahim, Joseph G.

2013-01-01

Summary The aim of this paper is to develop a class of spatial transformation models (STM) to spatially model the varying association between imaging measures in a three-dimensional (3D) volume (or 2D surface) and a set of covariates. Our STMs include a varying Box-Cox transformation model for dealing with the issue of non-Gaussian distributed imaging data and a Gaussian Markov Random Field model for incorporating spatial smoothness of the imaging data. Posterior computation proceeds via an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Simulations and real data analysis demonstrate that the STM significantly outperforms the voxel-wise linear model with Gaussian noise in recovering meaningful geometric patterns. Our STM is able to reveal important brain regions with morphological changes in children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. PMID:24128143

Probability-Based Recognition Framework for Underwater Landmarks Using Sonar Images †.

PubMed

Lee, Yeongjun; Choi, Jinwoo; Ko, Nak Yong; Choi, Hyun-Taek

2017-08-24

This paper proposes a probability-based framework for recognizing underwater landmarks using sonar images. Current recognition methods use a single image, which does not provide reliable results because of weaknesses of the sonar image such as unstable acoustic source, many speckle noises, low resolution images, single channel image, and so on. However, using consecutive sonar images, if the status-i.e., the existence and identity (or name)-of an object is continuously evaluated by a stochastic method, the result of the recognition method is available for calculating the uncertainty, and it is more suitable for various applications. Our proposed framework consists of three steps: (1) candidate selection, (2) continuity evaluation, and (3) Bayesian feature estimation. Two probability methods-particle filtering and Bayesian feature estimation-are used to repeatedly estimate the continuity and feature of objects in consecutive images. Thus, the status of the object is repeatedly predicted and updated by a stochastic method. Furthermore, we develop an artificial landmark to increase detectability by an imaging sonar, which we apply to the characteristics of acoustic waves, such as instability and reflection depending on the roughness of the reflector surface. The proposed method is verified by conducting basin experiments, and the results are presented.

Bayesian linkage and segregation analysis: factoring the problem.

PubMed

Matthysse, S

2000-01-01

Complex segregation analysis and linkage methods are mathematical techniques for the genetic dissection of complex diseases. They are used to delineate complex modes of familial transmission and to localize putative disease susceptibility loci to specific chromosomal locations. The computational problem of Bayesian linkage and segregation analysis is one of integration in high-dimensional spaces. In this paper, three available techniques for Bayesian linkage and segregation analysis are discussed: Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), importance sampling, and exact calculation. The contribution of each to the overall integration will be explicitly discussed.

Development and comparison of Bayesian modularization method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Xu, C.-Y.; Engeland, K.

2012-04-01

With respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, different approaches have been used in hydrological models. Bayesian method is one of the most widely used methods for uncertainty assessment of hydrological models, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayesian theorem. However, none of these applications can well treat the uncertainty in extreme flows of hydrological models' simulations. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization method approach in uncertainty assessment of conceptual hydrological models by considering the extreme flows. It includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by a new Bayesian modularization method approach and traditional Bayesian models using the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions are used in combination with traditional Bayesian: the AR (1) plus Normal and time period independent model (Model 1), the AR (1) plus Normal and time period dependent model (Model 2) and the AR (1) plus multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that (1) the simulations derived from Bayesian modularization method are more accurate with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value, and (2) the Bayesian modularization method performs best in uncertainty estimates of entire flows and in terms of the application and computational efficiency. The study thus introduces a new approach for reducing the extreme flow's effect on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian. Keywords: extreme flow, uncertainty assessment, Bayesian modularization, hydrological model, WASMOD

A Primer on Bayesian Analysis for Experimental Psychopathologists

PubMed Central

Krypotos, Angelos-Miltiadis; Blanken, Tessa F.; Arnaudova, Inna; Matzke, Dora; Beckers, Tom

2016-01-01

The principal goals of experimental psychopathology (EPP) research are to offer insights into the pathogenic mechanisms of mental disorders and to provide a stable ground for the development of clinical interventions. The main message of the present article is that those goals are better served by the adoption of Bayesian statistics than by the continued use of null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST). In the first part of the article we list the main disadvantages of NHST and explain why those disadvantages limit the conclusions that can be drawn from EPP research. Next, we highlight the advantages of Bayesian statistics. To illustrate, we then pit NHST and Bayesian analysis against each other using an experimental data set from our lab. Finally, we discuss some challenges when adopting Bayesian statistics. We hope that the present article will encourage experimental psychopathologists to embrace Bayesian statistics, which could strengthen the conclusions drawn from EPP research. PMID:28748068

A general Bayesian image reconstruction algorithm with entropy prior: Preliminary application to HST data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunez, Jorge; Llacer, Jorge

1993-10-01

This paper describes a general Bayesian iterative algorithm with entropy prior for image reconstruction. It solves the cases of both pure Poisson data and Poisson data with Gaussian readout noise. The algorithm maintains positivity of the solution; it includes case-specific prior information (default map) and flatfield corrections; it removes background and can be accelerated to be faster than the Richardson-Lucy algorithm. In order to determine the hyperparameter that balances the entropy and liklihood terms in the Bayesian approach, we have used a liklihood cross-validation technique. Cross-validation is more robust than other methods because it is less demanding in terms of the knowledge of exact data characteristics and of the point-spread function. We have used the algorithm to reconstruct successfully images obtained in different space-and ground-based imaging situations. It has been possible to recover most of the original intended capabilities of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) wide field and planetary camera (WFPC) and faint object camera (FOC) from images obtained in their present state. Semireal simulations for the future wide field planetary camera 2 show that even after the repair of the spherical abberration problem, image reconstruction can play a key role in improving the resolution of the cameras, well beyond the design of the Hubble instruments. We also show that ground-based images can be reconstructed successfully with the algorithm. A technique which consists of dividing the CCD observations into two frames, with one-half the exposure time each, emerges as a recommended procedure for the utilization of the described algorithms. We have compared our technique with two commonly used reconstruction algorithms: the Richardson-Lucy and the Cambridge maximum entropy algorithms.

J-Plus: Morphological Classification Of Compact And Extended Sources By Pdf Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Sanjuan, C.; Vázquez-Ramió, H.; Varela, J.; Spinoso, D.; Cristóbal-Hornillos, D.; Viironen, K.; Muniesa, D.; J-PLUS Collaboration

2017-10-01

We present a morphological classification of J-PLUS EDR sources into compact (i.e. stars) and extended (i.e. galaxies). Such classification is based on the Bayesian modelling of the concentration distribution, including observational errors and magnitude + sky position priors. We provide the star / galaxy probability of each source computed from the gri images. The comparison with the SDSS number counts support our classification up to r 21. The 31.7 deg² analised comprises 150k stars and 101k galaxies.

Testing students' e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling.

PubMed

Salarzadeh Jenatabadi, Hashem; Moghavvemi, Sedigheh; Wan Mohamed Radzi, Che Wan Jasimah Bt; Babashamsi, Parastoo; Arashi, Mohammad

2017-01-01

Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students' intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data) were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods' results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated.

Testing students’ e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling

PubMed Central

Moghavvemi, Sedigheh; Wan Mohamed Radzi, Che Wan Jasimah Bt; Babashamsi, Parastoo; Arashi, Mohammad

2017-01-01

Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students’ intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data) were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods’ results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated. PMID:28886019

Nonlinear and non-Gaussian Bayesian based handwriting beautification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Cao; Xiao, Jianguo; Xu, Canhui; Jia, Wenhua

2013-03-01

A framework is proposed in this paper to effectively and efficiently beautify handwriting by means of a novel nonlinear and non-Gaussian Bayesian algorithm. In the proposed framework, format and size of handwriting image are firstly normalized, and then typeface in computer system is applied to optimize vision effect of handwriting. The Bayesian statistics is exploited to characterize the handwriting beautification process as a Bayesian dynamic model. The model parameters to translate, rotate and scale typeface in computer system are controlled by state equation, and the matching optimization between handwriting and transformed typeface is employed by measurement equation. Finally, the new typeface, which is transformed from the original one and gains the best nonlinear and non-Gaussian optimization, is the beautification result of handwriting. Experimental results demonstrate the proposed framework provides a creative handwriting beautification methodology to improve visual acceptance.

[Bayesian statistics in medicine -- part II: main applications and inference].

PubMed

Montomoli, C; Nichelatti, M

2008-01-01

Bayesian statistics is not only used when one is dealing with 2-way tables, but it can be used for inferential purposes. Using the basic concepts presented in the first part, this paper aims to give a simple overview of Bayesian methods by introducing its foundation (Bayes' theorem) and then applying this rule to a very simple practical example; whenever possible, the elementary processes at the basis of analysis are compared to those of frequentist (classical) statistical analysis. The Bayesian reasoning is naturally connected to medical activity, since it appears to be quite similar to a diagnostic process.

Bayesian convolutional neural network based MRI brain extraction on nonhuman primates.

PubMed

Zhao, Gengyan; Liu, Fang; Oler, Jonathan A; Meyerand, Mary E; Kalin, Ned H; Birn, Rasmus M

2018-07-15

Brain extraction or skull stripping of magnetic resonance images (MRI) is an essential step in neuroimaging studies, the accuracy of which can severely affect subsequent image processing procedures. Current automatic brain extraction methods demonstrate good results on human brains, but are often far from satisfactory on nonhuman primates, which are a necessary part of neuroscience research. To overcome the challenges of brain extraction in nonhuman primates, we propose a fully-automated brain extraction pipeline combining deep Bayesian convolutional neural network (CNN) and fully connected three-dimensional (3D) conditional random field (CRF). The deep Bayesian CNN, Bayesian SegNet, is used as the core segmentation engine. As a probabilistic network, it is not only able to perform accurate high-resolution pixel-wise brain segmentation, but also capable of measuring the model uncertainty by Monte Carlo sampling with dropout in the testing stage. Then, fully connected 3D CRF is used to refine the probability result from Bayesian SegNet in the whole 3D context of the brain volume. The proposed method was evaluated with a manually brain-extracted dataset comprising T1w images of 100 nonhuman primates. Our method outperforms six popular publicly available brain extraction packages and three well-established deep learning based methods with a mean Dice coefficient of 0.985 and a mean average symmetric surface distance of 0.220 mm. A better performance against all the compared methods was verified by statistical tests (all p-values < 10 -4 , two-sided, Bonferroni corrected). The maximum uncertainty of the model on nonhuman primate brain extraction has a mean value of 0.116 across all the 100 subjects. The behavior of the uncertainty was also studied, which shows the uncertainty increases as the training set size decreases, the number of inconsistent labels in the training set increases, or the inconsistency between the training set and the testing set increases. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prior Elicitation and Bayesian Analysis of the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial

PubMed Central

See, Craig W.; Srinivasan, Muthiah; Saravanan, Somu; Oldenburg, Catherine E.; Esterberg, Elizabeth J.; Ray, Kathryn J.; Glaser, Tanya S.; Tu, Elmer Y.; Zegans, Michael E.; McLeod, Stephen D.; Acharya, Nisha R.; Lietman, Thomas M.

2013-01-01

Purpose To elicit expert opinion on the use of adjunctive corticosteroid therapy in bacterial corneal ulcers. To perform a Bayesian analysis of the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial (SCUT), using expert opinion as a prior probability. Methods The SCUT was a placebo-controlled trial assessing visual outcomes in patients receiving topical corticosteroids or placebo as adjunctive therapy for bacterial keratitis. Questionnaires were conducted at scientific meetings in India and North America to gauge expert consensus on the perceived benefit of corticosteroids as adjunct treatment. Bayesian analysis, using the questionnaire data as a prior probability and the primary outcome of SCUT as a likelihood, was performed. For comparison, an additional Bayesian analysis was performed using the results of the SCUT pilot study as a prior distribution. Results Indian respondents believed there to be a 1.21 Snellen line improvement, and North American respondents believed there to be a 1.24 line improvement with corticosteroid therapy. The SCUT primary outcome found a non-significant 0.09 Snellen line benefit with corticosteroid treatment. The results of the Bayesian analysis estimated a slightly greater benefit than did the SCUT primary analysis (0.19 lines verses 0.09 lines). Conclusion Indian and North American experts had similar expectations on the effectiveness of corticosteroids in bacterial corneal ulcers; that corticosteroids would markedly improve visual outcomes. Bayesian analysis produced results very similar to those produced by the SCUT primary analysis. The similarity in result is likely due to the large sample size of SCUT and helps validate the results of SCUT. PMID:23171211

Spot counting on fluorescence in situ hybridization in suspension images using Gaussian mixture model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Sijia; Sa, Ruhan; Maguire, Orla; Minderman, Hans; Chaudhary, Vipin

2015-03-01

Cytogenetic abnormalities are important diagnostic and prognostic criteria for acute myeloid leukemia (AML). A flow cytometry-based imaging approach for FISH in suspension (FISH-IS) was established that enables the automated analysis of several log-magnitude higher number of cells compared to the microscopy-based approaches. The rotational positioning can occur leading to discordance between spot count. As a solution of counting error from overlapping spots, in this study, a Gaussian Mixture Model based classification method is proposed. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) of GMM are used as global image features of this classification method. Via Random Forest classifier, the result shows that the proposed method is able to detect closely overlapping spots which cannot be separated by existing image segmentation based spot detection methods. The experiment results show that by the proposed method we can obtain a significant improvement in spot counting accuracy.

A Bayesian framework for early risk prediction in traumatic brain injury

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaganti, Shikha; Plassard, Andrew J.; Wilson, Laura; Smith, Miya A.; Patel, Mayur B.; Landman, Bennett A.

2016-03-01

Early detection of risk is critical in determining the course of treatment in traumatic brain injury (TBI). Computed tomography (CT) acquired at admission has shown latent prognostic value in prior studies; however, no robust clinical risk predictions have been achieved based on the imaging data in large-scale TBI analysis. The major challenge lies in the lack of consistent and complete medical records for patients, and an inherent bias associated with the limited number of patients samples with high-risk outcomes in available TBI datasets. Herein, we propose a Bayesian framework with mutual information-based forward feature selection to handle this type of data. Using multi-atlas segmentation, 154 image-based features (capturing intensity, volume and texture) were computed over 22 ROIs in 1791 CT scans. These features were combined with 14 clinical parameters and converted into risk likelihood scores using Bayes modeling. We explore the prediction power of the image features versus the clinical measures for various risk outcomes. The imaging data alone were more predictive of outcomes than the clinical data (including Marshall CT classification) for discharge disposition with an area under the curve of 0.81 vs. 0.67, but less predictive than clinical data for discharge Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score with an area under the curve of 0.65 vs. 0.85. However, in both cases, combining imaging and clinical data increased the combined area under the curve with 0.86 for discharge disposition and 0.88 for discharge GCS score. In conclusion, CT data have meaningful prognostic value for TBI patients beyond what is captured in clinical measures and the Marshall CT classification.

Denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations. Derivation of the D3PO algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selig, Marco; Enßlin, Torsten A.

2015-02-01

The analysis of astronomical images is a non-trivial task. The D3PO algorithm addresses the inference problem of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations. Its primary goal is the simultaneous but individual reconstruction of the diffuse and point-like photon flux given a single photon count image, where the fluxes are superimposed. In order to discriminate between these morphologically different signal components, a probabilistic algorithm is derived in the language of information field theory based on a hierarchical Bayesian parameter model. The signal inference exploits prior information on the spatial correlation structure of the diffuse component and the brightness distribution of the spatially uncorrelated point-like sources. A maximum a posteriori solution and a solution minimizing the Gibbs free energy of the inference problem using variational Bayesian methods are discussed. Since the derivation of the solution is not dependent on the underlying position space, the implementation of the D3PO algorithm uses the nifty package to ensure applicability to various spatial grids and at any resolution. The fidelity of the algorithm is validated by the analysis of simulated data, including a realistic high energy photon count image showing a 32 × 32 arcmin2 observation with a spatial resolution of 0.1 arcmin. In all tests the D3PO algorithm successfully denoised, deconvolved, and decomposed the data into a diffuse and a point-like signal estimate for the respective photon flux components. A copy of the code is available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/574/A74

A Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert M.; Rodriguez, Daniel Taylor

2012-01-01

1. A Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data containing covariates of species occurrence and species detection probabilities is usually completed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in conjunction with software programs that can implement those methods for any statistical model, not just site-occupancy models. Although these software programs are quite flexible, considerable experience is often required to specify a model and to initialize the Markov chain so that summaries of the posterior distribution can be estimated efficiently and accurately. 2. As an alternative to these programs, we develop a Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data that include covariates of species occurrence and species detection probabilities. This Gibbs sampler is based on a class of site-occupancy models in which probabilities of species occurrence and detection are specified as probit-regression functions of site- and survey-specific covariate measurements. 3. To illustrate the Gibbs sampler, we analyse site-occupancy data of the blue hawker, Aeshna cyanea (Odonata, Aeshnidae), a common dragonfly species in Switzerland. Our analysis includes a comparison of results based on Bayesian and classical (non-Bayesian) methods of inference. We also provide code (based on the R software program) for conducting Bayesian and classical analyses of site-occupancy data.

RECONSTRUCTING EXPOSURE SCENARIOS USING DOSE BIOMARKERS - AN APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

We use Bayesian uncertainty analysis to explore how to estimate pollutant exposures from biomarker concentrations. The growing number of national databases with exposure data makes such an analysis possible. They contain datasets of pharmacokinetic biomarkers for many polluta...

Multicell migration tracking within angiogenic networks by deep learning-based segmentation and augmented Bayesian filtering.

PubMed

Wang, Mengmeng; Ong, Lee-Ling Sharon; Dauwels, Justin; Asada, H Harry

2018-04-01

Cell migration is a key feature for living organisms. Image analysis tools are useful in studying cell migration in three-dimensional (3-D) in vitro environments. We consider angiogenic vessels formed in 3-D microfluidic devices (MFDs) and develop an image analysis system to extract cell behaviors from experimental phase-contrast microscopy image sequences. The proposed system initializes tracks with the end-point confocal nuclei coordinates. We apply convolutional neural networks to detect cell candidates and combine backward Kalman filtering with multiple hypothesis tracking to link the cell candidates at each time step. These hypotheses incorporate prior knowledge on vessel formation and cell proliferation rates. The association accuracy reaches 86.4% for the proposed algorithm, indicating that the proposed system is able to associate cells more accurately than existing approaches. Cell culture experiments in 3-D MFDs have shown considerable promise for improving biology research. The proposed system is expected to be a useful quantitative tool for potential microscopy problems of MFDs.

Intravoxel Incoherent Motion and Quantitative Non-Gaussian Diffusion MR Imaging: Evaluation of the Diagnostic and Prognostic Value of Several Markers of Malignant and Benign Breast Lesions.

PubMed

Iima, Mami; Kataoka, Masako; Kanao, Shotaro; Onishi, Natsuko; Kawai, Makiko; Ohashi, Akane; Sakaguchi, Rena; Toi, Masakazu; Togashi, Kaori

2018-05-01

Purpose To investigate the performance of integrated approaches that combined intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) and non-Gaussian diffusion parameters compared with the Breast Imaging and Reporting Data System (BI-RADS) to establish multiparameter thresholds scores or probabilities by using Bayesian analysis to distinguish malignant from benign breast lesions and their correlation with molecular prognostic factors. Materials and Methods Between May 2013 and March 2015, 411 patients were prospectively enrolled and 199 patients (allocated to training [n = 99] and validation [n = 100] sets) were included in this study. IVIM parameters (flowing blood volume fraction [fIVIM] and pseudodiffusion coefficient [D*]) and non-Gaussian diffusion parameters (theoretical apparent diffusion coefficient [ADC] at b value of 0 sec/mm 2 [ADC 0 ] and kurtosis [K]) by using IVIM and kurtosis models were estimated from diffusion-weighted image series (16 b values up to 2500 sec/mm 2 ), as well as a synthetic ADC (sADC) calculated by using b values of 200 and 1500 (sADC 200-1500 ) and a standard ADC calculated by using b values of 0 and 800 sec/mm 2 (ADC 0-800 ). The performance of two diagnostic approaches (combined parameter thresholds and Bayesian analysis) combining IVIM and diffusion parameters was evaluated and compared with BI-RADS performance. The Mann-Whitney U test and a nonparametric multiple comparison test were used to compare their performance to determine benignity or malignancy and as molecular prognostic biomarkers and subtypes of breast cancer. Results Significant differences were found between malignant and benign breast lesions for IVIM and non-Gaussian diffusion parameters (ADC 0 , K, fIVIM, fIVIM · D*, sADC 200-1500, and ADC 0-800 ; P < .05). Sensitivity and specificity for the validation set by radiologists A and B were as follows: sensitivity, 94.7% and 89.5%, and specificity, 75.0% and 79.2% for sADC 200-1500 , respectively; sensitivity, 94.7% and 96.1%, and specificity, 75.0% and 66.7%, for the combined thresholds approach, respectively; sensitivity, 92.1% and 92.1%, and specificity, 83.3% and 66.7%, for Bayesian analysis, respectively; and sensitivity and specificity, 100% and 79.2%, for BI-RADS, respectively. The significant difference in values of sADC 200-1500 in progesterone receptor status (P = .002) was noted. sADC 200-1500 was significantly different between histologic subtypes (P = .006). Conclusion Approaches that combined various IVIM and non-Gaussian diffusion MR imaging parameters may provide BI-RADS-equivalent scores almost comparable to BI-RADS categories without the use of contrast agents. Non-Gaussian diffusion parameters also differed by biologic prognostic factors. © RSNA, 2017 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Bayesian Factor Analysis as a Variable Selection Problem: Alternative Priors and Consequences

PubMed Central

Lu, Zhao-Hua; Chow, Sy-Miin; Loken, Eric

2016-01-01

Factor analysis is a popular statistical technique for multivariate data analysis. Developments in the structural equation modeling framework have enabled the use of hybrid confirmatory/exploratory approaches in which factor loading structures can be explored relatively flexibly within a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) framework. Recently, a Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) approach (Muthén & Asparouhov, 2012) has been proposed as a way to explore the presence of cross-loadings in CFA models. We show that the issue of determining factor loading patterns may be formulated as a Bayesian variable selection problem in which Muthén and Asparouhov’s approach can be regarded as a BSEM approach with ridge regression prior (BSEM-RP). We propose another Bayesian approach, denoted herein as the Bayesian structural equation modeling with spike and slab prior (BSEM-SSP), which serves as a one-stage alternative to the BSEM-RP. We review the theoretical advantages and disadvantages of both approaches and compare their empirical performance relative to two modification indices-based approaches and exploratory factor analysis with target rotation. A teacher stress scale data set (Byrne, 2012; Pettegrew & Wolf, 1982) is used to demonstrate our approach. PMID:27314566

Application of a data-mining method based on Bayesian networks to lesion-deficit analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herskovits, Edward H.; Gerring, Joan P.

2003-01-01

Although lesion-deficit analysis (LDA) has provided extensive information about structure-function associations in the human brain, LDA has suffered from the difficulties inherent to the analysis of spatial data, i.e., there are many more variables than subjects, and data may be difficult to model using standard distributions, such as the normal distribution. We herein describe a Bayesian method for LDA; this method is based on data-mining techniques that employ Bayesian networks to represent structure-function associations. These methods are computationally tractable, and can represent complex, nonlinear structure-function associations. When applied to the evaluation of data obtained from a study of the psychiatric sequelae of traumatic brain injury in children, this method generates a Bayesian network that demonstrates complex, nonlinear associations among lesions in the left caudate, right globus pallidus, right side of the corpus callosum, right caudate, and left thalamus, and subsequent development of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, confirming and extending our previous statistical analysis of these data. Furthermore, analysis of simulated data indicates that methods based on Bayesian networks may be more sensitive and specific for detecting associations among categorical variables than methods based on chi-square and Fisher exact statistics.

Quantifying Uncertainty in Near Surface Electromagnetic Imaging Using Bayesian Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blatter, D. B.; Ray, A.; Key, K.

2017-12-01

Geoscientists commonly use electromagnetic methods to image the Earth's near surface. Field measurements of EM fields are made (often with the aid an artificial EM source) and then used to infer near surface electrical conductivity via a process known as inversion. In geophysics, the standard inversion tool kit is robust and can provide an estimate of the Earth's near surface conductivity that is both geologically reasonable and compatible with the measured field data. However, standard inverse methods struggle to provide a sense of the uncertainty in the estimate they provide. This is because the task of finding an Earth model that explains the data to within measurement error is non-unique - that is, there are many, many such models; but the standard methods provide only one "answer." An alternative method, known as Bayesian inversion, seeks to explore the full range of Earth model parameters that can adequately explain the measured data, rather than attempting to find a single, "ideal" model. Bayesian inverse methods can therefore provide a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty inherent in trying to infer near surface conductivity from noisy, measured field data. This study applies a Bayesian inverse method (called trans-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo) to transient airborne EM data previously collected over Taylor Valley - one of the McMurdo Dry Valleys in Antarctica. Our results confirm the reasonableness of previous estimates (made using standard methods) of near surface conductivity beneath Taylor Valley. In addition, we demonstrate quantitatively the uncertainty associated with those estimates. We demonstrate that Bayesian inverse methods can provide quantitative uncertainty to estimates of near surface conductivity.

Diagnostic accuracy of a bayesian latent group analysis for the detection of malingering-related poor effort.

PubMed

Ortega, Alonso; Labrenz, Stephan; Markowitsch, Hans J; Piefke, Martina

2013-01-01

In the last decade, different statistical techniques have been introduced to improve assessment of malingering-related poor effort. In this context, we have recently shown preliminary evidence that a Bayesian latent group model may help to optimize classification accuracy using a simulation research design. In the present study, we conducted two analyses. Firstly, we evaluated how accurately this Bayesian approach can distinguish between participants answering in an honest way (honest response group) and participants feigning cognitive impairment (experimental malingering group). Secondly, we tested the accuracy of our model in the differentiation between patients who had real cognitive deficits (cognitively impaired group) and participants who belonged to the experimental malingering group. All Bayesian analyses were conducted using the raw scores of a visual recognition forced-choice task (2AFC), the Test of Memory Malingering (TOMM, Trial 2), and the Word Memory Test (WMT, primary effort subtests). The first analysis showed 100% accuracy for the Bayesian model in distinguishing participants of both groups with all effort measures. The second analysis showed outstanding overall accuracy of the Bayesian model when estimates were obtained from the 2AFC and the TOMM raw scores. Diagnostic accuracy of the Bayesian model diminished when using the WMT total raw scores. Despite, overall diagnostic accuracy can still be considered excellent. The most plausible explanation for this decrement is the low performance in verbal recognition and fluency tasks of some patients of the cognitively impaired group. Additionally, the Bayesian model provides individual estimates, p(zi |D), of examinees' effort levels. In conclusion, both high classification accuracy levels and Bayesian individual estimates of effort may be very useful for clinicians when assessing for effort in medico-legal settings.

Automated radial basis function neural network based image classification system for diabetic retinopathy detection in retinal images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anitha, J.; Vijila, C. Kezi Selva; Hemanth, D. Jude

2010-02-01

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a chronic eye disease for which early detection is highly essential to avoid any fatal results. Image processing of retinal images emerge as a feasible tool for this early diagnosis. Digital image processing techniques involve image classification which is a significant technique to detect the abnormality in the eye. Various automated classification systems have been developed in the recent years but most of them lack high classification accuracy. Artificial neural networks are the widely preferred artificial intelligence technique since it yields superior results in terms of classification accuracy. In this work, Radial Basis function (RBF) neural network based bi-level classification system is proposed to differentiate abnormal DR Images and normal retinal images. The results are analyzed in terms of classification accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. A comparative analysis is performed with the results of the probabilistic classifier namely Bayesian classifier to show the superior nature of neural classifier. Experimental results show promising results for the neural classifier in terms of the performance measures.

EEG-fMRI Bayesian framework for neural activity estimation: a simulation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croce, Pierpaolo; Basti, Alessio; Marzetti, Laura; Zappasodi, Filippo; Del Gratta, Cosimo

2016-12-01

Objective. Due to the complementary nature of electroencephalography (EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), and given the possibility of simultaneous acquisition, the joint data analysis can afford a better understanding of the underlying neural activity estimation. In this simulation study we want to show the benefit of the joint EEG-fMRI neural activity estimation in a Bayesian framework. Approach. We built a dynamic Bayesian framework in order to perform joint EEG-fMRI neural activity time course estimation. The neural activity is originated by a given brain area and detected by means of both measurement techniques. We have chosen a resting state neural activity situation to address the worst case in terms of the signal-to-noise ratio. To infer information by EEG and fMRI concurrently we used a tool belonging to the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods: the particle filter (PF). Main results. First, despite a high computational cost, we showed the feasibility of such an approach. Second, we obtained an improvement in neural activity reconstruction when using both EEG and fMRI measurements. Significance. The proposed simulation shows the improvements in neural activity reconstruction with EEG-fMRI simultaneous data. The application of such an approach to real data allows a better comprehension of the neural dynamics.

EEG-fMRI Bayesian framework for neural activity estimation: a simulation study.

PubMed

Croce, Pierpaolo; Basti, Alessio; Marzetti, Laura; Zappasodi, Filippo; Gratta, Cosimo Del

2016-12-01

Due to the complementary nature of electroencephalography (EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), and given the possibility of simultaneous acquisition, the joint data analysis can afford a better understanding of the underlying neural activity estimation. In this simulation study we want to show the benefit of the joint EEG-fMRI neural activity estimation in a Bayesian framework. We built a dynamic Bayesian framework in order to perform joint EEG-fMRI neural activity time course estimation. The neural activity is originated by a given brain area and detected by means of both measurement techniques. We have chosen a resting state neural activity situation to address the worst case in terms of the signal-to-noise ratio. To infer information by EEG and fMRI concurrently we used a tool belonging to the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods: the particle filter (PF). First, despite a high computational cost, we showed the feasibility of such an approach. Second, we obtained an improvement in neural activity reconstruction when using both EEG and fMRI measurements. The proposed simulation shows the improvements in neural activity reconstruction with EEG-fMRI simultaneous data. The application of such an approach to real data allows a better comprehension of the neural dynamics.

A Bayesian blind survey for cold molecular gas in the Universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lentati, L.; Carilli, C.; Alexander, P.; Walter, F.; Decarli, R.

2014-10-01

A new Bayesian method for performing an image domain search for line-emitting galaxies is presented. The method uses both spatial and spectral information to robustly determine the source properties, employing either simple Gaussian, or other physically motivated models whilst using the evidence to determine the probability that the source is real. In this paper, we describe the method, and its application to both a simulated data set, and a blind survey for cold molecular gas using observations of the Hubble Deep Field-North taken with the Plateau de Bure Interferometer. We make a total of six robust detections in the survey, five of which have counterparts in other observing bands. We identify the most secure detections found in a previous investigation, while finding one new probable line source with an optical ID not seen in the previous analysis. This study acts as a pilot application of Bayesian statistics to future searches to be carried out both for low-J CO transitions of high-redshift galaxies using the Jansky Very Large Array (JVLA), and at millimetre wavelengths with Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA), enabling the inference of robust scientific conclusions about the history of the molecular gas properties of star-forming galaxies in the Universe through cosmic time.

Automated MRI Cerebellar Size Measurements Using Active Appearance Modeling

PubMed Central

Price, Mathew; Cardenas, Valerie A.; Fein, George

2014-01-01

Although the human cerebellum has been increasingly identified as an important hub that shows potential for helping in the diagnosis of a large spectrum of disorders, such as alcoholism, autism, and fetal alcohol spectrum disorder, the high costs associated with manual segmentation, and low availability of reliable automated cerebellar segmentation tools, has resulted in a limited focus on cerebellar measurement in human neuroimaging studies. We present here the CATK (Cerebellar Analysis Toolkit), which is based on the Bayesian framework implemented in FMRIB’s FIRST. This approach involves training Active Appearance Models (AAM) using hand-delineated examples. CATK can currently delineate the cerebellar hemispheres and three vermal groups (lobules I–V, VI–VII, and VIII–X). Linear registration with the low-resolution MNI152 template is used to provide initial alignment, and Point Distribution Models (PDM) are parameterized using stellar sampling. The Bayesian approach models the relationship between shape and texture through computation of conditionals in the training set. Our method varies from the FIRST framework in that initial fitting is driven by 1D intensity profile matching, and the conditional likelihood function is subsequently used to refine fitting. The method was developed using T1-weighted images from 63 subjects that were imaged and manually labeled: 43 subjects were scanned once and were used for training models, and 20 subjects were imaged twice (with manual labeling applied to both runs) and used to assess reliability and validity. Intraclass correlation analysis shows that CATK is highly reliable (average test-retest ICCs of 0.96), and offers excellent agreement with the gold standard (average validity ICC of 0.87 against manual labels). Comparisons against an alternative atlas-based approach, SUIT (Spatially Unbiased Infratentorial Template), that registers images with a high-resolution template of the cerebellum, show that our AAM approach offers superior reliability and validity. Extensions of CATK to cerebellar hemisphere parcels is envisioned. PMID:25192657

Hierarchical Bayesian method for mapping biogeochemical hot spots using induced polarization imaging

DOE PAGES

Wainwright, Haruko M.; Flores Orozco, Adrian; Bucker, Matthias; ...

2016-01-29

In floodplain environments, a naturally reduced zone (NRZ) is considered to be a common biogeochemical hot spot, having distinct microbial and geochemical characteristics. Although important for understanding their role in mediating floodplain biogeochemical processes, mapping the subsurface distribution of NRZs over the dimensions of a floodplain is challenging, as conventional wellbore data are typically spatially limited and the distribution of NRZs is heterogeneous. In this work, we present an innovative methodology for the probabilistic mapping of NRZs within a three-dimensional (3-D) subsurface domain using induced polarization imaging, which is a noninvasive geophysical technique. Measurements consist of surface geophysical surveys andmore » drilling-recovered sediments at the U.S. Department of Energy field site near Rifle, CO (USA). Inversion of surface time domain-induced polarization (TDIP) data yielded 3-D images of the complex electrical resistivity, in terms of magnitude and phase, which are associated with mineral precipitation and other lithological properties. By extracting the TDIP data values colocated with wellbore lithological logs, we found that the NRZs have a different distribution of resistivity and polarization from the other aquifer sediments. To estimate the spatial distribution of NRZs, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to integrate the geophysical and wellbore data. In addition, the resistivity images were used to estimate hydrostratigraphic interfaces under the floodplain. Validation results showed that the integration of electrical imaging and wellbore data using a Bayesian hierarchical model was capable of mapping spatially heterogeneous interfaces and NRZ distributions thereby providing a minimally invasive means to parameterize a hydrobiogeochemical model of the floodplain.« less

Trans-Dimensional Bayesian Imaging of 3-D Crustal and Upper Mantle Structure in Northeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S.; Tkalcic, H.; Rhie, J.; Chen, Y.

2016-12-01

Imaging 3-D structures using stepwise inversions of ambient noise and receiver function data is now a routine work. Here, we carry out the inversion in the trans-dimensional and hierarchical extension of the Bayesian framework to obtain rigorous estimates of uncertainty and high-resolution images of crustal and upper mantle structures beneath Northeast (NE) Asia. The methods inherently account for data sensitivities by means of using adaptive parameterizations and treating data noise as free parameters. Therefore, parsimonious results from the methods are balanced out between model complexity and data fitting. This allows fully exploiting data information, preventing from over- or under-estimation of the data fit, and increases model resolution. In addition, the reliability of results is more rigorously checked through the use of Bayesian uncertainties. It is shown by various synthetic recovery tests that complex and spatially variable features are well resolved in our resulting images of NE Asia. Rayleigh wave phase and group velocity tomograms (8-70 s), a 3-D shear-wave velocity model from depth inversions of the estimated dispersion maps, and regional 3-D models (NE China, the Korean Peninsula, and the Japanese islands) from joint inversions with receiver function data of dense networks are presented. High-resolution models are characterized by a number of tectonically meaningful features. We focus our interpretation on complex patterns of sub-lithospheric low velocity structures that extend from back-arc regions to continental margins. We interpret the anomalies in conjunction with distal and distributed intraplate volcanoes in NE Asia. Further discussion on other imaged features will be presented.

The impact of using informative priors in a Bayesian cost-effectiveness analysis: an application of endovascular versus open surgical repair for abdominal aortic aneurysms in high-risk patients.

PubMed

McCarron, C Elizabeth; Pullenayegum, Eleanor M; Thabane, Lehana; Goeree, Ron; Tarride, Jean-Eric

2013-04-01

Bayesian methods have been proposed as a way of synthesizing all available evidence to inform decision making. However, few practical applications of the use of Bayesian methods for combining patient-level data (i.e., trial) with additional evidence (e.g., literature) exist in the cost-effectiveness literature. The objective of this study was to compare a Bayesian cost-effectiveness analysis using informative priors to a standard non-Bayesian nonparametric method to assess the impact of incorporating additional information into a cost-effectiveness analysis. Patient-level data from a previously published nonrandomized study were analyzed using traditional nonparametric bootstrap techniques and bivariate normal Bayesian models with vague and informative priors. Two different types of informative priors were considered to reflect different valuations of the additional evidence relative to the patient-level data (i.e., "face value" and "skeptical"). The impact of using different distributions and valuations was assessed in a sensitivity analysis. Models were compared in terms of incremental net monetary benefit (INMB) and cost-effectiveness acceptability frontiers (CEAFs). The bootstrapping and Bayesian analyses using vague priors provided similar results. The most pronounced impact of incorporating the informative priors was the increase in estimated life years in the control arm relative to what was observed in the patient-level data alone. Consequently, the incremental difference in life years originally observed in the patient-level data was reduced, and the INMB and CEAF changed accordingly. The results of this study demonstrate the potential impact and importance of incorporating additional information into an analysis of patient-level data, suggesting this could alter decisions as to whether a treatment should be adopted and whether more information should be acquired.

Bayesian automated cortical segmentation for neonatal MRI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, Zane; Paquette, Natacha; Ganesh, Bhavana; Wang, Yalin; Ceschin, Rafael; Nelson, Marvin D.; Macyszyn, Luke; Gaonkar, Bilwaj; Panigrahy, Ashok; Lepore, Natasha

2017-11-01

Several attempts have been made in the past few years to develop and implement an automated segmentation of neonatal brain structural MRI. However, accurate automated MRI segmentation remains challenging in this population because of the low signal-to-noise ratio, large partial volume effects and inter-individual anatomical variability of the neonatal brain. In this paper, we propose a learning method for segmenting the whole brain cortical grey matter on neonatal T2-weighted images. We trained our algorithm using a neonatal dataset composed of 3 fullterm and 4 preterm infants scanned at term equivalent age. Our segmentation pipeline combines the FAST algorithm from the FSL library software and a Bayesian segmentation approach to create a threshold matrix that minimizes the error of mislabeling brain tissue types. Our method shows promising results with our pilot training set. In both preterm and full-term neonates, automated Bayesian segmentation generates a smoother and more consistent parcellation compared to FAST, while successfully removing the subcortical structure and cleaning the edges of the cortical grey matter. This method show promising refinement of the FAST segmentation by considerably reducing manual input and editing required from the user, and further improving reliability and processing time of neonatal MR images. Further improvement will include a larger dataset of training images acquired from different manufacturers.

Sparsity-promoting and edge-preserving maximum a posteriori estimators in non-parametric Bayesian inverse problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agapiou, Sergios; Burger, Martin; Dashti, Masoumeh; Helin, Tapio

2018-04-01

We consider the inverse problem of recovering an unknown functional parameter u in a separable Banach space, from a noisy observation vector y of its image through a known possibly non-linear map {{\\mathcal G}} . We adopt a Bayesian approach to the problem and consider Besov space priors (see Lassas et al (2009 Inverse Problems Imaging 3 87-122)), which are well-known for their edge-preserving and sparsity-promoting properties and have recently attracted wide attention especially in the medical imaging community. Our key result is to show that in this non-parametric setup the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates are characterized by the minimizers of a generalized Onsager-Machlup functional of the posterior. This is done independently for the so-called weak and strong MAP estimates, which as we show coincide in our context. In addition, we prove a form of weak consistency for the MAP estimators in the infinitely informative data limit. Our results are remarkable for two reasons: first, the prior distribution is non-Gaussian and does not meet the smoothness conditions required in previous research on non-parametric MAP estimates. Second, the result analytically justifies existing uses of the MAP estimate in finite but high dimensional discretizations of Bayesian inverse problems with the considered Besov priors.

Detection of fruit-fly infestation in olives using X-ray imaging: Algorithm development and prospects

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

An algorithm using a Bayesian classifier was developed to automatically detect olive fruit fly infestations in x-ray images of olives. The data set consisted of 249 olives with various degrees of infestation and 161 non-infested olives. Each olive was x-rayed on film and digital images were acquired...

Bayesian spatial transformation models with applications in neuroimaging data.

PubMed

Miranda, Michelle F; Zhu, Hongtu; Ibrahim, Joseph G

2013-12-01

The aim of this article is to develop a class of spatial transformation models (STM) to spatially model the varying association between imaging measures in a three-dimensional (3D) volume (or 2D surface) and a set of covariates. The proposed STM include a varying Box-Cox transformation model for dealing with the issue of non-Gaussian distributed imaging data and a Gaussian Markov random field model for incorporating spatial smoothness of the imaging data. Posterior computation proceeds via an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Simulations and real data analysis demonstrate that the STM significantly outperforms the voxel-wise linear model with Gaussian noise in recovering meaningful geometric patterns. Our STM is able to reveal important brain regions with morphological changes in children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Single-Case Time Series with Bayesian Analysis: A Practitioner's Guide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, W. Paul

2003-01-01

This article illustrates a simplified time series analysis for use by the counseling researcher practitioner in single-case baseline plus intervention studies with a Bayesian probability analysis to integrate findings from replications. The C statistic is recommended as a primary analysis tool with particular relevance in the context of actual…

Daniel Goodman’s empirical approach to Bayesian statistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerrodette, Tim; Ward, Eric; Taylor, Rebecca L.; Schwarz, Lisa K.; Eguchi, Tomoharu; Wade, Paul; Himes Boor, Gina

2016-01-01

Bayesian statistics, in contrast to classical statistics, uses probability to represent uncertainty about the state of knowledge. Bayesian statistics has often been associated with the idea that knowledge is subjective and that a probability distribution represents a personal degree of belief. Dr. Daniel Goodman considered this viewpoint problematic for issues of public policy. He sought to ground his Bayesian approach in data, and advocated the construction of a prior as an empirical histogram of “similar” cases. In this way, the posterior distribution that results from a Bayesian analysis combined comparable previous data with case-specific current data, using Bayes’ formula. Goodman championed such a data-based approach, but he acknowledged that it was difficult in practice. If based on a true representation of our knowledge and uncertainty, Goodman argued that risk assessment and decision-making could be an exact science, despite the uncertainties. In his view, Bayesian statistics is a critical component of this science because a Bayesian analysis produces the probabilities of future outcomes. Indeed, Goodman maintained that the Bayesian machinery, following the rules of conditional probability, offered the best legitimate inference from available data. We give an example of an informative prior in a recent study of Steller sea lion spatial use patterns in Alaska.

Robust Bayesian Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayashi, Kentaro; Yuan, Ke-Hai

2003-01-01

Bayesian factor analysis (BFA) assumes the normal distribution of the current sample conditional on the parameters. Practical data in social and behavioral sciences typically have significant skewness and kurtosis. If the normality assumption is not attainable, the posterior analysis will be inaccurate, although the BFA depends less on the current…

Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Coefficient Alpha

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brannick, Michael T.; Zhang, Nanhua

2013-01-01

The current paper describes and illustrates a Bayesian approach to the meta-analysis of coefficient alpha. Alpha is the most commonly used estimate of the reliability or consistency (freedom from measurement error) for educational and psychological measures. The conventional approach to meta-analysis uses inverse variance weights to combine…

Probability-Based Recognition Framework for Underwater Landmarks Using Sonar Images †

PubMed Central

Choi, Jinwoo; Choi, Hyun-Taek

2017-01-01

This paper proposes a probability-based framework for recognizing underwater landmarks using sonar images. Current recognition methods use a single image, which does not provide reliable results because of weaknesses of the sonar image such as unstable acoustic source, many speckle noises, low resolution images, single channel image, and so on. However, using consecutive sonar images, if the status—i.e., the existence and identity (or name)—of an object is continuously evaluated by a stochastic method, the result of the recognition method is available for calculating the uncertainty, and it is more suitable for various applications. Our proposed framework consists of three steps: (1) candidate selection, (2) continuity evaluation, and (3) Bayesian feature estimation. Two probability methods—particle filtering and Bayesian feature estimation—are used to repeatedly estimate the continuity and feature of objects in consecutive images. Thus, the status of the object is repeatedly predicted and updated by a stochastic method. Furthermore, we develop an artificial landmark to increase detectability by an imaging sonar, which we apply to the characteristics of acoustic waves, such as instability and reflection depending on the roughness of the reflector surface. The proposed method is verified by conducting basin experiments, and the results are presented. PMID:28837068

A Bayesian Model of the Memory Colour Effect.

PubMed

Witzel, Christoph; Olkkonen, Maria; Gegenfurtner, Karl R

2018-01-01

According to the memory colour effect, the colour of a colour-diagnostic object is not perceived independently of the object itself. Instead, it has been shown through an achromatic adjustment method that colour-diagnostic objects still appear slightly in their typical colour, even when they are colourimetrically grey. Bayesian models provide a promising approach to capture the effect of prior knowledge on colour perception and to link these effects to more general effects of cue integration. Here, we model memory colour effects using prior knowledge about typical colours as priors for the grey adjustments in a Bayesian model. This simple model does not involve any fitting of free parameters. The Bayesian model roughly captured the magnitude of the measured memory colour effect for photographs of objects. To some extent, the model predicted observed differences in memory colour effects across objects. The model could not account for the differences in memory colour effects across different levels of realism in the object images. The Bayesian model provides a particularly simple account of memory colour effects, capturing some of the multiple sources of variation of these effects.

A Bayesian Model of the Memory Colour Effect

PubMed Central

Olkkonen, Maria; Gegenfurtner, Karl R.

2018-01-01

According to the memory colour effect, the colour of a colour-diagnostic object is not perceived independently of the object itself. Instead, it has been shown through an achromatic adjustment method that colour-diagnostic objects still appear slightly in their typical colour, even when they are colourimetrically grey. Bayesian models provide a promising approach to capture the effect of prior knowledge on colour perception and to link these effects to more general effects of cue integration. Here, we model memory colour effects using prior knowledge about typical colours as priors for the grey adjustments in a Bayesian model. This simple model does not involve any fitting of free parameters. The Bayesian model roughly captured the magnitude of the measured memory colour effect for photographs of objects. To some extent, the model predicted observed differences in memory colour effects across objects. The model could not account for the differences in memory colour effects across different levels of realism in the object images. The Bayesian model provides a particularly simple account of memory colour effects, capturing some of the multiple sources of variation of these effects. PMID:29760874

A novel super-resolution camera model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Xiaopeng; Wang, Yi; Xu, Jie; Wang, Lin; Liu, Fei; Luo, Qiuhua; Chen, Xiaodong; Bi, Xiangli

2015-05-01

Aiming to realize super resolution(SR) to single image and video reconstruction, a super resolution camera model is proposed for the problem that the resolution of the images obtained by traditional cameras behave comparatively low. To achieve this function we put a certain driving device such as piezoelectric ceramics in the camera. By controlling the driving device, a set of continuous low resolution(LR) images can be obtained and stored instantaneity, which reflect the randomness of the displacements and the real-time performance of the storage very well. The low resolution image sequences have different redundant information and some particular priori information, thus it is possible to restore super resolution image factually and effectively. The sample method is used to derive the reconstruction principle of super resolution, which analyzes the possible improvement degree of the resolution in theory. The super resolution algorithm based on learning is used to reconstruct single image and the variational Bayesian algorithm is simulated to reconstruct the low resolution images with random displacements, which models the unknown high resolution image, motion parameters and unknown model parameters in one hierarchical Bayesian framework. Utilizing sub-pixel registration method, a super resolution image of the scene can be reconstructed. The results of 16 images reconstruction show that this camera model can increase the image resolution to 2 times, obtaining images with higher resolution in currently available hardware levels.

Bayesian Multiscale Analysis of X-Ray Jet Features in High Redshift Quasars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKeough, Kathryn; Siemiginowska, A.; Kashyap, V.; Stein, N.

2014-01-01

X-ray emission of powerful quasar jets may be a result of the inverse Compton (IC) process in which the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) photons gain energy by interactions with the jet’s relativistic electrons. However, there is no definite evidence that IC/CMB process is responsible for the observed X-ray emission of large scale jets. A step toward understanding the X-ray emission process is to study the Radio and X-ray morphologies of the jet. We implement a sophisticated Bayesian image analysis program, Low-count Image Reconstruction and Analysis (LIRA) (Esch et al. 2004; Conners & van Dyk 2007), to analyze jet features in 11 Chandra images of high redshift quasars (z ~ 2 - 4.8). Out of the 36 regions where knots are visible in the radio jets, nine showed detectable X-ray emission. We measured the ratios of the X-ray and radio luminosities of the detected features and found that they are consistent with the CMB radiation relationship. We derived a range of the bulk lorentz factor (Γ) for detected jet features under the CMB jet emission model. There is no discernible trend of Γ with redshift within the sample. The efficiency of the X-ray emission between the detected jet feature and the corresponding quasar also shows no correlation with redshift. This work is supported in part by the National Science Foundation REU and the Department of Defense ASSURE programs under NSF Grant no.1262851 and by the Smithsonian Institution, and by NASA Contract NAS8-39073 to the Chandra X-ray Center (CXC). This research has made use of data obtained from the Chandra Data Archive and Chandra Source Catalog, and software provided by the CXC in the application packages CIAO, ChIPS, and Sherpa. We thank Teddy Cheung for providing the VLA radio images. Connors, A., & van Dyk, D. A. 2007, Statistical Challenges in Modern Astronomy IV, 371, 101 Esch, D. N., Connors, A., Karovska, M., & van Dyk, D. A. 2004, ApJ, 610, 1213

An adaptive Bayesian inversion for upper-mantle structure using surface waves and scattered body waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eilon, Zachary; Fischer, Karen M.; Dalton, Colleen A.

2018-07-01

We present a methodology for 1-D imaging of upper-mantle structure using a Bayesian approach that incorporates a novel combination of seismic data types and an adaptive parametrization based on piecewise discontinuous splines. Our inversion algorithm lays the groundwork for improved seismic velocity models of the lithosphere and asthenosphere by harnessing the recent expansion of large seismic arrays and computational power alongside sophisticated data analysis. Careful processing of P- and S-wave arrivals isolates converted phases generated at velocity gradients between the mid-crust and 300 km depth. This data is allied with ambient noise and earthquake Rayleigh wave phase velocities to obtain detailed VS and VP velocity models. Synthetic tests demonstrate that converted phases are necessary to accurately constrain velocity gradients, and S-p phases are particularly important for resolving mantle structure, while surface waves are necessary for capturing absolute velocities. We apply the method to several stations in the northwest and north-central United States, finding that the imaged structure improves upon existing models by sharpening the vertical resolution of absolute velocity profiles, offering robust uncertainty estimates, and revealing mid-lithospheric velocity gradients indicative of thermochemical cratonic layering. This flexible method holds promise for increasingly detailed understanding of the upper mantle.

[Development and Application of a Performance Prediction Model for Home Care Nursing Based on a Balanced Scorecard using the Bayesian Belief Network].

PubMed

Noh, Wonjung; Seomun, Gyeongae

2015-06-01

This study was conducted to develop key performance indicators (KPIs) for home care nursing (HCN) based on a balanced scorecard, and to construct a performance prediction model of strategic objectives using the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). This methodological study included four steps: establishment of KPIs, performance prediction modeling, development of a performance prediction model using BBN, and simulation of a suggested nursing management strategy. An HCN expert group and a staff group participated. The content validity index was analyzed using STATA 13.0, and BBN was analyzed using HUGIN 8.0. We generated a list of KPIs composed of 4 perspectives, 10 strategic objectives, and 31 KPIs. In the validity test of the performance prediction model, the factor with the greatest variance for increasing profit was maximum cost reduction of HCN services. The factor with the smallest variance for increasing profit was a minimum image improvement for HCN. During sensitivity analysis, the probability of the expert group did not affect the sensitivity. Furthermore, simulation of a 10% image improvement predicted the most effective way to increase profit. KPIs of HCN can estimate financial and non-financial performance. The performance prediction model for HCN will be useful to improve performance.

An adaptive Bayesian inversion for upper mantle structure using surface waves and scattered body waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eilon, Zachary; Fischer, Karen M.; Dalton, Colleen A.

2018-04-01

We present a methodology for 1-D imaging of upper mantle structure using a Bayesian approach that incorporates a novel combination of seismic data types and an adaptive parameterisation based on piecewise discontinuous splines. Our inversion algorithm lays the groundwork for improved seismic velocity models of the lithosphere and asthenosphere by harnessing the recent expansion of large seismic arrays and computational power alongside sophisticated data analysis. Careful processing of P- and S-wave arrivals isolates converted phases generated at velocity gradients between the mid-crust and 300 km depth. This data is allied with ambient noise and earthquake Rayleigh wave phase velocities to obtain detailed VS and VP velocity models. Synthetic tests demonstrate that converted phases are necessary to accurately constrain velocity gradients, and S-p phases are particularly important for resolving mantle structure, while surface waves are necessary for capturing absolute velocities. We apply the method to several stations in the northwest and north-central United States, finding that the imaged structure improves upon existing models by sharpening the vertical resolution of absolute velocity profiles, offering robust uncertainty estimates, and revealing mid-lithospheric velocity gradients indicative of thermochemical cratonic layering. This flexible method holds promise for increasingly detailed understanding of the upper mantle.

Analyzing small data sets using Bayesian estimation: the case of posttraumatic stress symptoms following mechanical ventilation in burn survivors

PubMed Central

van de Schoot, Rens; Broere, Joris J.; Perryck, Koen H.; Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, Mariëlle; van Loey, Nancy E.

2015-01-01

Background The analysis of small data sets in longitudinal studies can lead to power issues and often suffers from biased parameter values. These issues can be solved by using Bayesian estimation in conjunction with informative prior distributions. By means of a simulation study and an empirical example concerning posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) following mechanical ventilation in burn survivors, we demonstrate the advantages and potential pitfalls of using Bayesian estimation. Methods First, we show how to specify prior distributions and by means of a sensitivity analysis we demonstrate how to check the exact influence of the prior (mis-) specification. Thereafter, we show by means of a simulation the situations in which the Bayesian approach outperforms the default, maximum likelihood and approach. Finally, we re-analyze empirical data on burn survivors which provided preliminary evidence of an aversive influence of a period of mechanical ventilation on the course of PTSS following burns. Results Not suprisingly, maximum likelihood estimation showed insufficient coverage as well as power with very small samples. Only when Bayesian analysis, in conjunction with informative priors, was used power increased to acceptable levels. As expected, we showed that the smaller the sample size the more the results rely on the prior specification. Conclusion We show that two issues often encountered during analysis of small samples, power and biased parameters, can be solved by including prior information into Bayesian analysis. We argue that the use of informative priors should always be reported together with a sensitivity analysis. PMID:25765534

Analyzing small data sets using Bayesian estimation: the case of posttraumatic stress symptoms following mechanical ventilation in burn survivors.

PubMed

van de Schoot, Rens; Broere, Joris J; Perryck, Koen H; Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, Mariëlle; van Loey, Nancy E

2015-01-01

Background : The analysis of small data sets in longitudinal studies can lead to power issues and often suffers from biased parameter values. These issues can be solved by using Bayesian estimation in conjunction with informative prior distributions. By means of a simulation study and an empirical example concerning posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) following mechanical ventilation in burn survivors, we demonstrate the advantages and potential pitfalls of using Bayesian estimation. Methods : First, we show how to specify prior distributions and by means of a sensitivity analysis we demonstrate how to check the exact influence of the prior (mis-) specification. Thereafter, we show by means of a simulation the situations in which the Bayesian approach outperforms the default, maximum likelihood and approach. Finally, we re-analyze empirical data on burn survivors which provided preliminary evidence of an aversive influence of a period of mechanical ventilation on the course of PTSS following burns. Results : Not suprisingly, maximum likelihood estimation showed insufficient coverage as well as power with very small samples. Only when Bayesian analysis, in conjunction with informative priors, was used power increased to acceptable levels. As expected, we showed that the smaller the sample size the more the results rely on the prior specification. Conclusion : We show that two issues often encountered during analysis of small samples, power and biased parameters, can be solved by including prior information into Bayesian analysis. We argue that the use of informative priors should always be reported together with a sensitivity analysis.

Bayesian dose-response analysis for epidemiological studies with complex uncertainty in dose estimation.

PubMed

Kwon, Deukwoo; Hoffman, F Owen; Moroz, Brian E; Simon, Steven L

2016-02-10

Most conventional risk analysis methods rely on a single best estimate of exposure per person, which does not allow for adjustment for exposure-related uncertainty. Here, we propose a Bayesian model averaging method to properly quantify the relationship between radiation dose and disease outcomes by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainty in estimated dose. Our Bayesian risk analysis method utilizes multiple realizations of sets (vectors) of doses generated by a two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation method that properly separates shared and unshared errors in dose estimation. The exposure model used in this work is taken from a study of the risk of thyroid nodules among a cohort of 2376 subjects who were exposed to fallout from nuclear testing in Kazakhstan. We assessed the performance of our method through an extensive series of simulations and comparisons against conventional regression risk analysis methods. When the estimated doses contain relatively small amounts of uncertainty, the Bayesian method using multiple a priori plausible draws of dose vectors gave similar results to the conventional regression-based methods of dose-response analysis. However, when large and complex mixtures of shared and unshared uncertainties are present, the Bayesian method using multiple dose vectors had significantly lower relative bias than conventional regression-based risk analysis methods and better coverage, that is, a markedly increased capability to include the true risk coefficient within the 95% credible interval of the Bayesian-based risk estimate. An evaluation of the dose-response using our method is presented for an epidemiological study of thyroid disease following radiation exposure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Superresolution radar imaging based on fast inverse-free sparse Bayesian learning for multiple measurement vectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Xingyu; Tong, Ningning; Hu, Xiaowei

2018-01-01

Compressive sensing has been successfully applied to inverse synthetic aperture radar (ISAR) imaging of moving targets. By exploiting the block sparse structure of the target image, sparse solution for multiple measurement vectors (MMV) can be applied in ISAR imaging and a substantial performance improvement can be achieved. As an effective sparse recovery method, sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) for MMV involves a matrix inverse at each iteration. Its associated computational complexity grows significantly with the problem size. To address this problem, we develop a fast inverse-free (IF) SBL method for MMV. A relaxed evidence lower bound (ELBO), which is computationally more amiable than the traditional ELBO used by SBL, is obtained by invoking fundamental property for smooth functions. A variational expectation-maximization scheme is then employed to maximize the relaxed ELBO, and a computationally efficient IF-MSBL algorithm is proposed. Numerical results based on simulated and real data show that the proposed method can reconstruct row sparse signal accurately and obtain clear superresolution ISAR images. Moreover, the running time and computational complexity are reduced to a great extent compared with traditional SBL methods.

The Importance of Proving the Null

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gallistel, C. R.

2009-01-01

Null hypotheses are simple, precise, and theoretically important. Conventional statistical analysis cannot support them; Bayesian analysis can. The challenge in a Bayesian analysis is to formulate a suitably vague alternative, because the vaguer the alternative is (the more it spreads out the unit mass of prior probability), the more the null is…

Robust through-the-wall radar image classification using a target-model alignment procedure.

PubMed

Smith, Graeme E; Mobasseri, Bijan G

2012-02-01

A through-the-wall radar image (TWRI) bears little resemblance to the equivalent optical image, making it difficult to interpret. To maximize the intelligence that may be obtained, it is desirable to automate the classification of targets in the image to support human operators. This paper presents a technique for classifying stationary targets based on the high-range resolution profile (HRRP) extracted from 3-D TWRIs. The dependence of the image on the target location is discussed using a system point spread function (PSF) approach. It is shown that the position dependence will cause a classifier to fail, unless the image to be classified is aligned to a classifier-training location. A target image alignment technique based on deconvolution of the image with the system PSF is proposed. Comparison of the aligned target images with measured images shows the alignment process introducing normalized mean squared error (NMSE) ≤ 9%. The HRRP extracted from aligned target images are classified using a naive Bayesian classifier supported by principal component analysis. The classifier is tested using a real TWRI of canonical targets behind a concrete wall and shown to obtain correct classification rates ≥ 97%. © 2011 IEEE

Bayesian selection of misspecified models is overconfident and may cause spurious posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Yang, Ziheng; Zhu, Tianqi

2018-02-20

The Bayesian method is noted to produce spuriously high posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees in analysis of large datasets, but the precise reasons for this overconfidence are unknown. In general, the performance of Bayesian selection of misspecified models is poorly understood, even though this is of great scientific interest since models are never true in real data analysis. Here we characterize the asymptotic behavior of Bayesian model selection and show that when the competing models are equally wrong, Bayesian model selection exhibits surprising and polarized behaviors in large datasets, supporting one model with full force while rejecting the others. If one model is slightly less wrong than the other, the less wrong model will eventually win when the amount of data increases, but the method may become overconfident before it becomes reliable. We suggest that this extreme behavior may be a major factor for the spuriously high posterior probabilities for evolutionary trees. The philosophical implications of our results to the application of Bayesian model selection to evaluate opposing scientific hypotheses are yet to be explored, as are the behaviors of non-Bayesian methods in similar situations.

Bayesian Analysis of Nonlinear Structural Equation Models with Nonignorable Missing Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Sik-Yum

2006-01-01

A Bayesian approach is developed for analyzing nonlinear structural equation models with nonignorable missing data. The nonignorable missingness mechanism is specified by a logistic regression model. A hybrid algorithm that combines the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to produce the joint Bayesian estimates of…

Bayesian Data-Model Fit Assessment for Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levy, Roy

2011-01-01

Bayesian approaches to modeling are receiving an increasing amount of attention in the areas of model construction and estimation in factor analysis, structural equation modeling (SEM), and related latent variable models. However, model diagnostics and model criticism remain relatively understudied aspects of Bayesian SEM. This article describes…

Bayesian Posterior Odds Ratios: Statistical Tools for Collaborative Evaluations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hicks, Tyler; Rodríguez-Campos, Liliana; Choi, Jeong Hoon

2018-01-01

To begin statistical analysis, Bayesians quantify their confidence in modeling hypotheses with priors. A prior describes the probability of a certain modeling hypothesis apart from the data. Bayesians should be able to defend their choice of prior to a skeptical audience. Collaboration between evaluators and stakeholders could make their choices…

Development and comparison in uncertainty assessment based Bayesian modularization method in hydrological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lu; Xu, Chong-Yu; Engeland, Kolbjørn

2013-04-01

SummaryWith respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, various regression and probabilistic approaches are used in hydrological modeling. A family of Bayesian methods, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayes' theorem, is widely used for uncertainty assessment. However, none of these approaches can well treat the impact of high flows in hydrological modeling. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization uncertainty assessment approach in which the highest streamflow observations are treated as suspect information that should not influence the inference of the main bulk of the model parameters. This study includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by our new Bayesian modularization method and standard Bayesian methods using the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions were used in combination with standard Bayesian method: the AR(1) plus Normal model independent of time (Model 1), the AR(1) plus Normal model dependent on time (Model 2) and the AR(1) plus Multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that the Bayesian modularization method provides the most accurate streamflow estimates measured by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and provide the best in uncertainty estimates for low, medium and entire flows compared to standard Bayesian methods. The study thus provides a new approach for reducing the impact of high flows on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian method.

Spectral decompositions of multiple time series: a Bayesian non-parametric approach.

PubMed

Macaro, Christian; Prado, Raquel

2014-01-01

We consider spectral decompositions of multiple time series that arise in studies where the interest lies in assessing the influence of two or more factors. We write the spectral density of each time series as a sum of the spectral densities associated to the different levels of the factors. We then use Whittle's approximation to the likelihood function and follow a Bayesian non-parametric approach to obtain posterior inference on the spectral densities based on Bernstein-Dirichlet prior distributions. The prior is strategically important as it carries identifiability conditions for the models and allows us to quantify our degree of confidence in such conditions. A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for posterior inference within this class of frequency-domain models is presented.We illustrate the approach by analyzing simulated and real data via spectral one-way and two-way models. In particular, we present an analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) brain responses measured in individuals who participated in a designed experiment to study pain perception in humans.

A taxonomic monograph of Nearctic Scolytus Geoffroy (Coleoptera, Curculionidae, Scolytinae).

PubMed

Smith, Sarah M; Cognato, Anthony I

2014-01-01

The Nearctic bark beetle genus Scolytus Geoffroy was revised based in part on a molecular and morphological phylogeny. Monophyly of the native species was tested using mitochondrial (COI) and nuclear (28S, CAD, ArgK) genes and 43 morphological characters in parsimony and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses. Parsimony analyses of molecular and combined datasets provided mixed results while Bayesian analysis recovered most nodes with posterior probabilities >90%. Native hardwood- and conifer-feeding Scolytus species were recovered as paraphyletic. Native Nearctic species were recovered as paraphyletic with hardwood-feeding species sister to Palearctic hardwood-feeding species rather than to native conifer-feeding species. The Nearctic conifer-feeding species were monophyletic. Twenty-five species were recognized. Four new synonyms were discovered: Scolytuspraeceps LeConte, 1868 (= Scolytusabietis Blackman, 1934; = Scolytusopacus Blackman, 1934), Scolytusreflexus Blackman, 1934 (= Scolytusvirgatus Bright, 1972; = Scolytuswickhami Blackman, 1934). Two species were reinstated: Scolytusfiskei Blackman, 1934 and Scolytussilvaticus Bright, 1972. A diagnosis, description, distribution, host records and images were provided for each species and a key is presented to all species.

Bayesian correction for covariate measurement error: A frequentist evaluation and comparison with regression calibration.

PubMed

Bartlett, Jonathan W; Keogh, Ruth H

2018-06-01

Bayesian approaches for handling covariate measurement error are well established and yet arguably are still relatively little used by researchers. For some this is likely due to unfamiliarity or disagreement with the Bayesian inferential paradigm. For others a contributory factor is the inability of standard statistical packages to perform such Bayesian analyses. In this paper, we first give an overview of the Bayesian approach to handling covariate measurement error, and contrast it with regression calibration, arguably the most commonly adopted approach. We then argue why the Bayesian approach has a number of statistical advantages compared to regression calibration and demonstrate that implementing the Bayesian approach is usually quite feasible for the analyst. Next, we describe the closely related maximum likelihood and multiple imputation approaches and explain why we believe the Bayesian approach to generally be preferable. We then empirically compare the frequentist properties of regression calibration and the Bayesian approach through simulation studies. The flexibility of the Bayesian approach to handle both measurement error and missing data is then illustrated through an analysis of data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

Enhancing the Modeling of PFOA Pharmacokinetics with Bayesian Analysis

EPA Science Inventory

The detail sufficient to describe the pharmacokinetics (PK) for perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and the methods necessary to combine information from multiple data sets are both subjects of ongoing investigation. Bayesian analysis provides tools to accommodate these goals. We exa...

Bayesian Hierarchical Grouping: perceptual grouping as mixture estimation

PubMed Central

Froyen, Vicky; Feldman, Jacob; Singh, Manish

2015-01-01

We propose a novel framework for perceptual grouping based on the idea of mixture models, called Bayesian Hierarchical Grouping (BHG). In BHG we assume that the configuration of image elements is generated by a mixture of distinct objects, each of which generates image elements according to some generative assumptions. Grouping, in this framework, means estimating the number and the parameters of the mixture components that generated the image, including estimating which image elements are “owned” by which objects. We present a tractable implementation of the framework, based on the hierarchical clustering approach of Heller and Ghahramani (2005). We illustrate it with examples drawn from a number of classical perceptual grouping problems, including dot clustering, contour integration, and part decomposition. Our approach yields an intuitive hierarchical representation of image elements, giving an explicit decomposition of the image into mixture components, along with estimates of the probability of various candidate decompositions. We show that BHG accounts well for a diverse range of empirical data drawn from the literature. Because BHG provides a principled quantification of the plausibility of grouping interpretations over a wide range of grouping problems, we argue that it provides an appealing unifying account of the elusive Gestalt notion of Prägnanz. PMID:26322548

Science - Image in Action

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zavidovique, Bertrand; Lo Bosco, Giosue'

pt. A. Information: data organization and communication. Statistical information: a Bayesian perspective / R. B. Stern, C. A. de B. Pereira. Multi-a(ge)nt graph patrolling and partitioning / Y. Elor, A. M. Bruckstein. The role of noise in brain function / S. Roy, R. Llinas. F-granulation, generalized rough entropy and image analysis / S. K. Pal. Fast redshift clustering with the Baire (ultra) metric / F. Murtagh, P. Contreras. Interactive classification oriented superresolution of multispectral images / P. Ruiz ... [et al.]. Blind processing in astrophysical data analysis / E. Salerno, L. Bedini. The extinction map of the orion molecular cloud / G. Scandariato (best student's paper), I. Pagano, M. Robberto -- pt. B. System: structure and behaviour. Common grounds: the role of perception in science and the nature of transitions / G. Bernroider. Looking the world from inside: intrinsic geometry of complex systems / L. Boi. The butterfly and the photon: new perspectives on unpredictability, and the notion of casual reality, in quantum physics / T. N. Palmer. Self-replicated wave patterns in neural networks with complex threshold / V. I. Nekorkin. A local explication of causation / G. Boniolo, R. Faraldo, A. Saggion. Evolving complexity, cognition, and consciousness / H. Liljenstrom. Self-assembly, modularity and physical complexity / S. E. Ahnert. The category of topological thermodynamics / R. M. Kiehn. Anti-phase spiking patterns / M. P. Igaev, A. S. Dmitrichev, V. I. Nekorkin -- pt. C. Data/system representation. Reality, models and representations: the case of galaxies, intelligence and avatars / J-C. Heudin. Astronomical images and data mining in the international virtual observatory context / F. Pasian, M. Brescia, G. Longo. Dame: a web oriented infrastructure for scientific data mining and exploration / S. Cavuoti ... [et al.]. Galactic phase spaces / D. Chakrabarty. From data to images: a shape based approach for fluorescence tomography / O. Dorn, K. E. Prieto. The influence of texture symmetry in marker pointing: experimenting with humans and algorithms / M. Cardaci, M. E. Tabacchi. A multiscale autocorrelation function for anisotropy studies / M. Scuderi ... [et al.]. A multiscale, lacunarity and neural network method for [symbol]/h discrimination in extensive air showers / A. Pagliaro, F. D'anna, G. D'ali Staiti. Bayesian semi-parametric curve-fitting and clustering in SDSS data / S. Mukkhopadhyay, S. Roy, S. Bhattacharya.

Snake River Plain Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis - Phase 1 Raster Files

DOE Data Explorer

John Shervais

2015-10-09

Snake River Plain Play Fairway Analysis - Phase 1 CRS Raster Files. This dataset contains raster files created in ArcGIS. These raster images depict Common Risk Segment (CRS) maps for HEAT, PERMEABILITY, AND SEAL, as well as selected maps of Evidence Layers. These evidence layers consist of either Bayesian krige functions or kernel density functions, and include: (1) HEAT: Heat flow (Bayesian krige map), Heat flow standard error on the krige function (data confidence), volcanic vent distribution as function of age and size, groundwater temperature (equivalue interval and natural breaks bins), and groundwater T standard error. (2) PERMEABILTY: Fault and lineament maps, both as mapped and as kernel density functions, processed for both dilational tendency (TD) and slip tendency (ST), along with data confidence maps for each data type. Data types include mapped surface faults from USGS and Idaho Geological Survey data bases, as well as unpublished mapping; lineations derived from maximum gradients in magnetic, deep gravity, and intermediate depth gravity anomalies. (3) SEAL: Seal maps based on presence and thickness of lacustrine sediments and base of SRP aquifer. Raster size is 2 km. All files generated in ArcGIS.

Surface shape analysis with an application to brain surface asymmetry in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Brignell, Christopher J; Dryden, Ian L; Gattone, S Antonio; Park, Bert; Leask, Stuart; Browne, William J; Flynn, Sean

2010-10-01

Some methods for the statistical analysis of surface shapes and asymmetry are introduced. We focus on a case study where magnetic resonance images of the brain are available from groups of 30 schizophrenia patients and 38 controls, and we investigate large-scale brain surface shape differences. Key aspects of shape analysis are to remove nuisance transformations by registration and to identify which parts of one object correspond with the parts of another object. We introduce maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods for registering brain images and providing large-scale correspondences of the brain surfaces. Brain surface size-and-shape analysis is considered using random field theory, and also dimension reduction is carried out using principal and independent components analysis. Some small but significant differences are observed between the the patient and control groups. We then investigate a particular type of asymmetry called torque. Differences in asymmetry are observed between the control and patient groups, which add strength to other observations in the literature. Further investigations of the midline plane location in the 2 groups and the fitting of nonplanar curved midlines are also considered.

Bayesian statistics: estimating plant demographic parameters

Treesearch

James S. Clark; Michael Lavine

2001-01-01

There are times when external information should be brought tobear on an ecological analysis. experiments are never conducted in a knowledge-free context. The inference we draw from an observation may depend on everything else we know about the process. Bayesian analysis is a method that brings outside evidence into the analysis of experimental and observational data...

Spatial Dependence and Heterogeneity in Bayesian Factor Analysis: A Cross-National Investigation of Schwartz Values

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stakhovych, Stanislav; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.; Wedel, Michel

2012-01-01

In this article, we present a Bayesian spatial factor analysis model. We extend previous work on confirmatory factor analysis by including geographically distributed latent variables and accounting for heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation. The simulation study shows excellent recovery of the model parameters and demonstrates the consequences…

Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling: A More Flexible Representation of Substantive Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muthen, Bengt; Asparouhov, Tihomir

2012-01-01

This article proposes a new approach to factor analysis and structural equation modeling using Bayesian analysis. The new approach replaces parameter specifications of exact zeros with approximate zeros based on informative, small-variance priors. It is argued that this produces an analysis that better reflects substantive theories. The proposed…

BCM: toolkit for Bayesian analysis of Computational Models using samplers.

PubMed

Thijssen, Bram; Dijkstra, Tjeerd M H; Heskes, Tom; Wessels, Lodewyk F A

2016-10-21

Computational models in biology are characterized by a large degree of uncertainty. This uncertainty can be analyzed with Bayesian statistics, however, the sampling algorithms that are frequently used for calculating Bayesian statistical estimates are computationally demanding, and each algorithm has unique advantages and disadvantages. It is typically unclear, before starting an analysis, which algorithm will perform well on a given computational model. We present BCM, a toolkit for the Bayesian analysis of Computational Models using samplers. It provides efficient, multithreaded implementations of eleven algorithms for sampling from posterior probability distributions and for calculating marginal likelihoods. BCM includes tools to simplify the process of model specification and scripts for visualizing the results. The flexible architecture allows it to be used on diverse types of biological computational models. In an example inference task using a model of the cell cycle based on ordinary differential equations, BCM is significantly more efficient than existing software packages, allowing more challenging inference problems to be solved. BCM represents an efficient one-stop-shop for computational modelers wishing to use sampler-based Bayesian statistics.

Bayesian Analysis of Longitudinal Data Using Growth Curve Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Zhiyong; Hamagami, Fumiaki; Wang, Lijuan Lijuan; Nesselroade, John R.; Grimm, Kevin J.

2007-01-01

Bayesian methods for analyzing longitudinal data in social and behavioral research are recommended for their ability to incorporate prior information in estimating simple and complex models. We first summarize the basics of Bayesian methods before presenting an empirical example in which we fit a latent basis growth curve model to achievement data…

Introduction to Bayesian statistical approaches to compositional analyses of transgenic crops 1. Model validation and setting the stage.

PubMed

Harrison, Jay M; Breeze, Matthew L; Harrigan, George G

2011-08-01

Statistical comparisons of compositional data generated on genetically modified (GM) crops and their near-isogenic conventional (non-GM) counterparts typically rely on classical significance testing. This manuscript presents an introduction to Bayesian methods for compositional analysis along with recommendations for model validation. The approach is illustrated using protein and fat data from two herbicide tolerant GM soybeans (MON87708 and MON87708×MON89788) and a conventional comparator grown in the US in 2008 and 2009. Guidelines recommended by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in conducting Bayesian analyses of clinical studies on medical devices were followed. This study is the first Bayesian approach to GM and non-GM compositional comparisons. The evaluation presented here supports a conclusion that a Bayesian approach to analyzing compositional data can provide meaningful and interpretable results. We further describe the importance of method validation and approaches to model checking if Bayesian approaches to compositional data analysis are to be considered viable by scientists involved in GM research and regulation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian analysis of rare events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straub, Daniel; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

2016-06-01

In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

A guide to Bayesian model selection for ecologists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooten, Mevin B.; Hobbs, N.T.

2015-01-01

The steady upward trend in the use of model selection and Bayesian methods in ecological research has made it clear that both approaches to inference are important for modern analysis of models and data. However, in teaching Bayesian methods and in working with our research colleagues, we have noticed a general dissatisfaction with the available literature on Bayesian model selection and multimodel inference. Students and researchers new to Bayesian methods quickly find that the published advice on model selection is often preferential in its treatment of options for analysis, frequently advocating one particular method above others. The recent appearance of many articles and textbooks on Bayesian modeling has provided welcome background on relevant approaches to model selection in the Bayesian framework, but most of these are either very narrowly focused in scope or inaccessible to ecologists. Moreover, the methodological details of Bayesian model selection approaches are spread thinly throughout the literature, appearing in journals from many different fields. Our aim with this guide is to condense the large body of literature on Bayesian approaches to model selection and multimodel inference and present it specifically for quantitative ecologists as neutrally as possible. We also bring to light a few important and fundamental concepts relating directly to model selection that seem to have gone unnoticed in the ecological literature. Throughout, we provide only a minimal discussion of philosophy, preferring instead to examine the breadth of approaches as well as their practical advantages and disadvantages. This guide serves as a reference for ecologists using Bayesian methods, so that they can better understand their options and can make an informed choice that is best aligned with their goals for inference.

BATSE gamma-ray burst line search. 2: Bayesian consistency methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Band, D. L.; Ford, L. A.; Matteson, J. L.; Briggs, M.; Paciesas, W.; Pendleton, G.; Preece, R.; Palmer, D.; Teegarden, B.; Schaefer, B.

1994-01-01

We describe a Bayesian methodology to evaluate the consistency between the reported Ginga and Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) detections of absorption features in gamma-ray burst spectra. Currently no features have been detected by BATSE, but this methodology will still be applicable if and when such features are discovered. The Bayesian methodology permits the comparison of hypotheses regarding the two detectors' observations and makes explicit the subjective aspects of our analysis (e.g., the quantification of our confidence in detector performance). We also present non-Bayesian consistency statistics. Based on preliminary calculations of line detectability, we find that both the Bayesian and non-Bayesian techniques show that the BATSE and Ginga observations are consistent given our understanding of these detectors.

Application of Bayesian Approach in Cancer Clinical Trial

PubMed Central

Bhattacharjee, Atanu

2014-01-01

The application of Bayesian approach in clinical trials becomes more useful over classical method. It is beneficial from design to analysis phase. The straight forward statement is possible to obtain through Bayesian about the drug treatment effect. Complex computational problems are simple to handle with Bayesian techniques. The technique is only feasible to performing presence of prior information of the data. The inference is possible to establish through posterior estimates. However, some limitations are present in this method. The objective of this work was to explore the several merits and demerits of Bayesian approach in cancer research. The review of the technique will be helpful for the clinical researcher involved in the oncology to explore the limitation and power of Bayesian techniques. PMID:29147387

Bayesian Retrieval of Complete Posterior PDFs of Oceanic Rain Rate From Microwave Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chiu, J. Christine; Petty, Grant W.

2005-01-01

This paper presents a new Bayesian algorithm for retrieving surface rain rate from Tropical Rainfall Measurements Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) over the ocean, along with validations against estimates from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). The Bayesian approach offers a rigorous basis for optimally combining multichannel observations with prior knowledge. While other rain rate algorithms have been published that are based at least partly on Bayesian reasoning, this is believed to be the first self-contained algorithm that fully exploits Bayes Theorem to yield not just a single rain rate, but rather a continuous posterior probability distribution of rain rate. To advance our understanding of theoretical benefits of the Bayesian approach, we have conducted sensitivity analyses based on two synthetic datasets for which the true conditional and prior distribution are known. Results demonstrate that even when the prior and conditional likelihoods are specified perfectly, biased retrievals may occur at high rain rates. This bias is not the result of a defect of the Bayesian formalism but rather represents the expected outcome when the physical constraint imposed by the radiometric observations is weak, due to saturation effects. It is also suggested that the choice of the estimators and the prior information are both crucial to the retrieval. In addition, the performance of our Bayesian algorithm is found to be comparable to that of other benchmark algorithms in real-world applications, while having the additional advantage of providing a complete continuous posterior probability distribution of surface rain rate.

A Bayesian approach to real-time 3D tumor localization via monoscopic x-ray imaging during treatment delivery.

PubMed

Li, Ruijiang; Fahimian, Benjamin P; Xing, Lei

2011-07-01

Monoscopic x-ray imaging with on-board kV devices is an attractive approach for real-time image guidance in modern radiation therapy such as VMAT or IMRT, but it falls short in providing reliable information along the direction of imaging x-ray. By effectively taking consideration of projection data at prior times and/or angles through a Bayesian formalism, the authors develop an algorithm for real-time and full 3D tumor localization with a single x-ray imager during treatment delivery. First, a prior probability density function is constructed using the 2D tumor locations on the projection images acquired during patient setup. Whenever an x-ray image is acquired during the treatment delivery, the corresponding 2D tumor location on the imager is used to update the likelihood function. The unresolved third dimension is obtained by maximizing the posterior probability distribution. The algorithm can also be used in a retrospective fashion when all the projection images during the treatment delivery are used for 3D localization purposes. The algorithm does not involve complex optimization of any model parameter and therefore can be used in a "plug-and-play" fashion. The authors validated the algorithm using (1) simulated 3D linear and elliptic motion and (2) 3D tumor motion trajectories of a lung and a pancreas patient reproduced by a physical phantom. Continuous kV images were acquired over a full gantry rotation with the Varian TrueBeam on-board imaging system. Three scenarios were considered: fluoroscopic setup, cone beam CT setup, and retrospective analysis. For the simulation study, the RMS 3D localization error is 1.2 and 2.4 mm for the linear and elliptic motions, respectively. For the phantom experiments, the 3D localization error is < 1 mm on average and < 1.5 mm at 95th percentile in the lung and pancreas cases for all three scenarios. The difference in 3D localization error for different scenarios is small and is not statistically significant. The proposed algorithm eliminates the need for any population based model parameters in monoscopic image guided radiotherapy and allows accurate and real-time 3D tumor localization on current standard LINACs with a single x-ray imager.

Joint denoising and distortion correction of atomic scale scanning transmission electron microscopy images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berkels, Benjamin; Wirth, Benedikt

2017-09-01

Nowadays, modern electron microscopes deliver images at atomic scale. The precise atomic structure encodes information about material properties. Thus, an important ingredient in the image analysis is to locate the centers of the atoms shown in micrographs as precisely as possible. Here, we consider scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM), which acquires data in a rastering pattern, pixel by pixel. Due to this rastering combined with the magnification to atomic scale, movements of the specimen even at the nanometer scale lead to random image distortions that make precise atom localization difficult. Given a series of STEM images, we derive a Bayesian method that jointly estimates the distortion in each image and reconstructs the underlying atomic grid of the material by fitting the atom bumps with suitable bump functions. The resulting highly non-convex minimization problems are solved numerically with a trust region approach. Existence of minimizers and the model behavior for faster and faster rastering are investigated using variational techniques. The performance of the method is finally evaluated on both synthetic and real experimental data.

Direct 4D reconstruction of parametric images incorporating anato-functional joint entropy.

PubMed

Tang, Jing; Kuwabara, Hiroto; Wong, Dean F; Rahmim, Arman

2010-08-07

We developed an anatomy-guided 4D closed-form algorithm to directly reconstruct parametric images from projection data for (nearly) irreversible tracers. Conventional methods consist of individually reconstructing 2D/3D PET data, followed by graphical analysis on the sequence of reconstructed image frames. The proposed direct reconstruction approach maintains the simplicity and accuracy of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm by extending the system matrix to include the relation between the parametric images and the measured data. A closed-form solution was achieved using a different hidden complete-data formulation within the EM framework. Furthermore, the proposed method was extended to maximum a posterior reconstruction via incorporation of MR image information, taking the joint entropy between MR and parametric PET features as the prior. Using realistic simulated noisy [(11)C]-naltrindole PET and MR brain images/data, the quantitative performance of the proposed methods was investigated. Significant improvements in terms of noise versus bias performance were demonstrated when performing direct parametric reconstruction, and additionally upon extending the algorithm to its Bayesian counterpart using the MR-PET joint entropy measure.

How to interpret the results of medical time series data analysis: Classical statistical approaches versus dynamic Bayesian network modeling.

PubMed

Onisko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J; Austin, R Marshall

2016-01-01

Classical statistics is a well-established approach in the analysis of medical data. While the medical community seems to be familiar with the concept of a statistical analysis and its interpretation, the Bayesian approach, argued by many of its proponents to be superior to the classical frequentist approach, is still not well-recognized in the analysis of medical data. The goal of this study is to encourage data analysts to use the Bayesian approach, such as modeling with graphical probabilistic networks, as an insightful alternative to classical statistical analysis of medical data. This paper offers a comparison of two approaches to analysis of medical time series data: (1) classical statistical approach, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and (2) dynamic Bayesian network modeling. Our comparison is based on time series cervical cancer screening data collected at Magee-Womens Hospital, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center over 10 years. The main outcomes of our comparison are cervical cancer risk assessments produced by the three approaches. However, our analysis discusses also several aspects of the comparison, such as modeling assumptions, model building, dealing with incomplete data, individualized risk assessment, results interpretation, and model validation. Our study shows that the Bayesian approach is (1) much more flexible in terms of modeling effort, and (2) it offers an individualized risk assessment, which is more cumbersome for classical statistical approaches.

The Goddard Profiling Algorithm (GPROF): Description and Current Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, William S.; Yang, Song; Stout, John E.; Grecu, Mircea

2004-01-01

Atmospheric scientists use different methods for interpreting satellite data. In the early days of satellite meteorology, the analysis of cloud pictures from satellites was primarily subjective. As computer technology improved, satellite pictures could be processed digitally, and mathematical algorithms were developed and applied to the digital images in different wavelength bands to extract information about the atmosphere in an objective way. The kind of mathematical algorithm one applies to satellite data may depend on the complexity of the physical processes that lead to the observed image, and how much information is contained in the satellite images both spatially and at different wavelengths. Imagery from satellite-borne passive microwave radiometers has limited horizontal resolution, and the observed microwave radiances are the result of complex physical processes that are not easily modeled. For this reason, a type of algorithm called a Bayesian estimation method is utilized to interpret passive microwave imagery in an objective, yet computationally efficient manner.

Spatiotemporal Bayesian analysis of Lyme disease in New York state, 1990-2000.

PubMed

Chen, Haiyan; Stratton, Howard H; Caraco, Thomas B; White, Dennis J

2006-07-01

Mapping ordinarily increases our understanding of nontrivial spatial and temporal heterogeneities in disease rates. However, the large number of parameters required by the corresponding statistical models often complicates detailed analysis. This study investigates the feasibility of a fully Bayesian hierarchical regression approach to the problem and identifies how it outperforms two more popular methods: crude rate estimates (CRE) and empirical Bayes standardization (EBS). In particular, we apply a fully Bayesian approach to the spatiotemporal analysis of Lyme disease incidence in New York state for the period 1990-2000. These results are compared with those obtained by CRE and EBS in Chen et al. (2005). We show that the fully Bayesian regression model not only gives more reliable estimates of disease rates than the other two approaches but also allows for tractable models that can accommodate more numerous sources of variation and unknown parameters.

Thermal bioaerosol cloud tracking with Bayesian classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Christian W.; Dupuis, Julia R.; Schundler, Elizabeth C.; Marinelli, William J.

2017-05-01

The development of a wide area, bioaerosol early warning capability employing existing uncooled thermal imaging systems used for persistent perimeter surveillance is discussed. The capability exploits thermal imagers with other available data streams including meteorological data and employs a recursive Bayesian classifier to detect, track, and classify observed thermal objects with attributes consistent with a bioaerosol plume. Target detection is achieved based on similarity to a phenomenological model which predicts the scene-dependent thermal signature of bioaerosol plumes. Change detection in thermal sensor data is combined with local meteorological data to locate targets with the appropriate thermal characteristics. Target motion is tracked utilizing a Kalman filter and nearly constant velocity motion model for cloud state estimation. Track management is performed using a logic-based upkeep system, and data association is accomplished using a combinatorial optimization technique. Bioaerosol threat classification is determined using a recursive Bayesian classifier to quantify the threat probability of each tracked object. The classifier can accept additional inputs from visible imagers, acoustic sensors, and point biological sensors to improve classification confidence. This capability was successfully demonstrated for bioaerosol simulant releases during field testing at Dugway Proving Grounds. Standoff detection at a range of 700m was achieved for as little as 500g of anthrax simulant. Developmental test results will be reviewed for a range of simulant releases, and future development and transition plans for the bioaerosol early warning platform will be discussed.

Encoding probabilistic brain atlases using Bayesian inference.

PubMed

Van Leemput, Koen

2009-06-01

This paper addresses the problem of creating probabilistic brain atlases from manually labeled training data. Probabilistic atlases are typically constructed by counting the relative frequency of occurrence of labels in corresponding locations across the training images. However, such an "averaging" approach generalizes poorly to unseen cases when the number of training images is limited, and provides no principled way of aligning the training datasets using deformable registration. In this paper, we generalize the generative image model implicitly underlying standard "average" atlases, using mesh-based representations endowed with an explicit deformation model. Bayesian inference is used to infer the optimal model parameters from the training data, leading to a simultaneous group-wise registration and atlas estimation scheme that encompasses standard averaging as a special case. We also use Bayesian inference to compare alternative atlas models in light of the training data, and show how this leads to a data compression problem that is intuitive to interpret and computationally feasible. Using this technique, we automatically determine the optimal amount of spatial blurring, the best deformation field flexibility, and the most compact mesh representation. We demonstrate, using 2-D training datasets, that the resulting models are better at capturing the structure in the training data than conventional probabilistic atlases. We also present experiments of the proposed atlas construction technique in 3-D, and show the resulting atlases' potential in fully-automated, pulse sequence-adaptive segmentation of 36 neuroanatomical structures in brain MRI scans.

Blind Bayesian restoration of adaptive optics telescope images using generalized Gaussian Markov random field models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeffs, Brian D.; Christou, Julian C.

1998-09-01

This paper addresses post processing for resolution enhancement of sequences of short exposure adaptive optics (AO) images of space objects. The unknown residual blur is removed using Bayesian maximum a posteriori blind image restoration techniques. In the problem formulation, both the true image and the unknown blur psf's are represented by the flexible generalized Gaussian Markov random field (GGMRF) model. The GGMRF probability density function provides a natural mechanism for expressing available prior information about the image and blur. Incorporating such prior knowledge in the deconvolution optimization is crucial for the success of blind restoration algorithms. For example, space objects often contain sharp edge boundaries and geometric structures, while the residual blur psf in the corresponding partially corrected AO image is spectrally band limited, and exhibits while the residual blur psf in the corresponding partially corrected AO image is spectrally band limited, and exhibits smoothed, random , texture-like features on a peaked central core. By properly choosing parameters, GGMRF models can accurately represent both the blur psf and the object, and serve to regularize the deconvolution problem. These two GGMRF models also serve as discriminator functions to separate blur and object in the solution. Algorithm performance is demonstrated with examples from synthetic AO images. Results indicate significant resolution enhancement when applied to partially corrected AO images. An efficient computational algorithm is described.

Bayesian Factor Analysis When Only a Sample Covariance Matrix Is Available

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayashi, Kentaro; Arav, Marina

2006-01-01

In traditional factor analysis, the variance-covariance matrix or the correlation matrix has often been a form of inputting data. In contrast, in Bayesian factor analysis, the entire data set is typically required to compute the posterior estimates, such as Bayes factor loadings and Bayes unique variances. We propose a simple method for computing…

A menu-driven software package of Bayesian nonparametric (and parametric) mixed models for regression analysis and density estimation.

PubMed

Karabatsos, George

2017-02-01

Most of applied statistics involves regression analysis of data. In practice, it is important to specify a regression model that has minimal assumptions which are not violated by data, to ensure that statistical inferences from the model are informative and not misleading. This paper presents a stand-alone and menu-driven software package, Bayesian Regression: Nonparametric and Parametric Models, constructed from MATLAB Compiler. Currently, this package gives the user a choice from 83 Bayesian models for data analysis. They include 47 Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) infinite-mixture regression models; 5 BNP infinite-mixture models for density estimation; and 31 normal random effects models (HLMs), including normal linear models. Each of the 78 regression models handles either a continuous, binary, or ordinal dependent variable, and can handle multi-level (grouped) data. All 83 Bayesian models can handle the analysis of weighted observations (e.g., for meta-analysis), and the analysis of left-censored, right-censored, and/or interval-censored data. Each BNP infinite-mixture model has a mixture distribution assigned one of various BNP prior distributions, including priors defined by either the Dirichlet process, Pitman-Yor process (including the normalized stable process), beta (two-parameter) process, normalized inverse-Gaussian process, geometric weights prior, dependent Dirichlet process, or the dependent infinite-probits prior. The software user can mouse-click to select a Bayesian model and perform data analysis via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. After the sampling completes, the software automatically opens text output that reports MCMC-based estimates of the model's posterior distribution and model predictive fit to the data. Additional text and/or graphical output can be generated by mouse-clicking other menu options. This includes output of MCMC convergence analyses, and estimates of the model's posterior predictive distribution, for selected functionals and values of covariates. The software is illustrated through the BNP regression analysis of real data.

Astrophysical data analysis with information field theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enßlin, Torsten

2014-12-01

Non-parametric imaging and data analysis in astrophysics and cosmology can be addressed by information field theory (IFT), a means of Bayesian, data based inference on spatially distributed signal fields. IFT is a statistical field theory, which permits the construction of optimal signal recovery algorithms. It exploits spatial correlations of the signal fields even for nonlinear and non-Gaussian signal inference problems. The alleviation of a perception threshold for recovering signals of unknown correlation structure by using IFT will be discussed in particular as well as a novel improvement on instrumental self-calibration schemes. IFT can be applied to many areas. Here, applications in in cosmology (cosmic microwave background, large-scale structure) and astrophysics (galactic magnetism, radio interferometry) are presented.

Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

PubMed Central

Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.; Piatek, Rémi

2014-01-01

This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates from a high dimensional set of psychological measurements. PMID:25431517

DETECTING UNSPECIFIED STRUCTURE IN LOW-COUNT IMAGES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stein, Nathan M.; Dyk, David A. van; Kashyap, Vinay L.

Unexpected structure in images of astronomical sources often presents itself upon visual inspection of the image, but such apparent structure may either correspond to true features in the source or be due to noise in the data. This paper presents a method for testing whether inferred structure in an image with Poisson noise represents a significant departure from a baseline (null) model of the image. To infer image structure, we conduct a Bayesian analysis of a full model that uses a multiscale component to allow flexible departures from the posited null model. As a test statistic, we use a tailmore » probability of the posterior distribution under the full model. This choice of test statistic allows us to estimate a computationally efficient upper bound on a p-value that enables us to draw strong conclusions even when there are limited computational resources that can be devoted to simulations under the null model. We demonstrate the statistical performance of our method on simulated images. Applying our method to an X-ray image of the quasar 0730+257, we find significant evidence against the null model of a single point source and uniform background, lending support to the claim of an X-ray jet.« less

Bayesian Modeling of NMR Data: Quantifying Longitudinal Relaxation in Vivo, and in Vitro with a Tissue-Water-Relaxation Mimic (Crosslinked Bovine Serum Albumin).

PubMed

Meinerz, Kelsey; Beeman, Scott C; Duan, Chong; Bretthorst, G Larry; Garbow, Joel R; Ackerman, Joseph J H

2018-01-01

Recently, a number of MRI protocols have been reported that seek to exploit the effect of dissolved oxygen (O 2 , paramagnetic) on the longitudinal 1 H relaxation of tissue water, thus providing image contrast related to tissue oxygen content. However, tissue water relaxation is dependent on a number of mechanisms, and this raises the issue of how best to model the relaxation data. This problem, the model selection problem, occurs in many branches of science and is optimally addressed by Bayesian probability theory. High signal-to-noise, densely sampled, longitudinal 1 H relaxation data were acquired from rat brain in vivo and from a cross-linked bovine serum albumin (xBSA) phantom, a sample that recapitulates the relaxation characteristics of tissue water in vivo . Bayesian-based model selection was applied to a cohort of five competing relaxation models: (i) monoexponential, (ii) stretched-exponential, (iii) biexponential, (iv) Gaussian (normal) R 1 -distribution, and (v) gamma R 1 -distribution. Bayesian joint analysis of multiple replicate datasets revealed that water relaxation of both the xBSA phantom and in vivo rat brain was best described by a biexponential model, while xBSA relaxation datasets truncated to remove evidence of the fast relaxation component were best modeled as a stretched exponential. In all cases, estimated model parameters were compared to the commonly used monoexponential model. Reducing the sampling density of the relaxation data and adding Gaussian-distributed noise served to simulate cases in which the data are acquisition-time or signal-to-noise restricted, respectively. As expected, reducing either the number of data points or the signal-to-noise increases the uncertainty in estimated parameters and, ultimately, reduces support for more complex relaxation models.

Experimental Verification of Bayesian Planet Detection Algorithms with a Shaped Pupil Coronagraph

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savransky, D.; Groff, T. D.; Kasdin, N. J.

2010-10-01

We evaluate the feasibility of applying Bayesian detection techniques to discovering exoplanets using high contrast laboratory data with simulated planetary signals. Background images are generated at the Princeton High Contrast Imaging Lab (HCIL), with a coronagraphic system utilizing a shaped pupil and two deformable mirrors (DMs) in series. Estimates of the electric field at the science camera are used to correct for quasi-static speckle and produce symmetric high contrast dark regions in the image plane. Planetary signals are added in software, or via a physical star-planet simulator which adds a second off-axis point source before the coronagraph with a beam recombiner, calibrated to a fixed contrast level relative to the source. We produce a variety of images, with varying integration times and simulated planetary brightness. We then apply automated detection algorithms such as matched filtering to attempt to extract the planetary signals. This allows us to evaluate the efficiency of these techniques in detecting planets in a high noise regime and eliminating false positives, as well as to test existing algorithms for calculating the required integration times for these techniques to be applicable.

2D Bayesian automated tilted-ring fitting of disc galaxies in large H I galaxy surveys: 2DBAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Se-Heon; Staveley-Smith, Lister; Spekkens, Kristine; Kamphuis, Peter; Koribalski, Bärbel S.

2018-01-01

We present a novel algorithm based on a Bayesian method for 2D tilted-ring analysis of disc galaxy velocity fields. Compared to the conventional algorithms based on a chi-squared minimization procedure, this new Bayesian-based algorithm suffers less from local minima of the model parameters even with highly multimodal posterior distributions. Moreover, the Bayesian analysis, implemented via Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, only requires broad ranges of posterior distributions of the parameters, which makes the fitting procedure fully automated. This feature will be essential when performing kinematic analysis on the large number of resolved galaxies expected to be detected in neutral hydrogen (H I) surveys with the Square Kilometre Array and its pathfinders. The so-called 2D Bayesian Automated Tilted-ring fitter (2DBAT) implements Bayesian fits of 2D tilted-ring models in order to derive rotation curves of galaxies. We explore 2DBAT performance on (a) artificial H I data cubes built based on representative rotation curves of intermediate-mass and massive spiral galaxies, and (b) Australia Telescope Compact Array H I data from the Local Volume H I Survey. We find that 2DBAT works best for well-resolved galaxies with intermediate inclinations (20° < i < 70°), complementing 3D techniques better suited to modelling inclined galaxies.

Inferring the most probable maps of underground utilities using Bayesian mapping model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilal, Muhammad; Khan, Wasiq; Muggleton, Jennifer; Rustighi, Emiliano; Jenks, Hugo; Pennock, Steve R.; Atkins, Phil R.; Cohn, Anthony

2018-03-01

Mapping the Underworld (MTU), a major initiative in the UK, is focused on addressing social, environmental and economic consequences raised from the inability to locate buried underground utilities (such as pipes and cables) by developing a multi-sensor mobile device. The aim of MTU device is to locate different types of buried assets in real time with the use of automated data processing techniques and statutory records. The statutory records, even though typically being inaccurate and incomplete, provide useful prior information on what is buried under the ground and where. However, the integration of information from multiple sensors (raw data) with these qualitative maps and their visualization is challenging and requires the implementation of robust machine learning/data fusion approaches. An approach for automated creation of revised maps was developed as a Bayesian Mapping model in this paper by integrating the knowledge extracted from sensors raw data and available statutory records. The combination of statutory records with the hypotheses from sensors was for initial estimation of what might be found underground and roughly where. The maps were (re)constructed using automated image segmentation techniques for hypotheses extraction and Bayesian classification techniques for segment-manhole connections. The model consisting of image segmentation algorithm and various Bayesian classification techniques (segment recognition and expectation maximization (EM) algorithm) provided robust performance on various simulated as well as real sites in terms of predicting linear/non-linear segments and constructing refined 2D/3D maps.

Cortical Hierarchies Perform Bayesian Causal Inference in Multisensory Perception

PubMed Central

Rohe, Tim; Noppeney, Uta

2015-01-01

To form a veridical percept of the environment, the brain needs to integrate sensory signals from a common source but segregate those from independent sources. Thus, perception inherently relies on solving the “causal inference problem.” Behaviorally, humans solve this problem optimally as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference; yet, the underlying neural mechanisms are unexplored. Combining psychophysics, Bayesian modeling, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), and multivariate decoding in an audiovisual spatial localization task, we demonstrate that Bayesian Causal Inference is performed by a hierarchy of multisensory processes in the human brain. At the bottom of the hierarchy, in auditory and visual areas, location is represented on the basis that the two signals are generated by independent sources (= segregation). At the next stage, in posterior intraparietal sulcus, location is estimated under the assumption that the two signals are from a common source (= forced fusion). Only at the top of the hierarchy, in anterior intraparietal sulcus, the uncertainty about the causal structure of the world is taken into account and sensory signals are combined as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference. Characterizing the computational operations of signal interactions reveals the hierarchical nature of multisensory perception in human neocortex. It unravels how the brain accomplishes Bayesian Causal Inference, a statistical computation fundamental for perception and cognition. Our results demonstrate how the brain combines information in the face of uncertainty about the underlying causal structure of the world. PMID:25710328

Applying Bayesian Modeling and Receiver Operating Characteristic Methodologies for Test Utility Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Qiu; Diemer, Matthew A.; Maier, Kimberly S.

2013-01-01

This study integrated Bayesian hierarchical modeling and receiver operating characteristic analysis (BROCA) to evaluate how interest strength (IS) and interest differentiation (ID) predicted low–socioeconomic status (SES) youth's interest-major congruence (IMC). Using large-scale Kuder Career Search online-assessment data, this study fit three…

Metrics for evaluating performance and uncertainty of Bayesian network models

Treesearch

Bruce G. Marcot

2012-01-01

This paper presents a selected set of existing and new metrics for gauging Bayesian network model performance and uncertainty. Selected existing and new metrics are discussed for conducting model sensitivity analysis (variance reduction, entropy reduction, case file simulation); evaluating scenarios (influence analysis); depicting model complexity (numbers of model...

Monte Carlo Algorithms for a Bayesian Analysis of the Cosmic Microwave Background

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jewell, Jeffrey B.; Eriksen, H. K.; ODwyer, I. J.; Wandelt, B. D.; Gorski, K.; Knox, L.; Chu, M.

2006-01-01

A viewgraph presentation on the review of Bayesian approach to Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) analysis, numerical implementation with Gibbs sampling, a summary of application to WMAP I and work in progress with generalizations to polarization, foregrounds, asymmetric beams, and 1/f noise is given.

Bayesian analysis of rare events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Straub, Daniel, E-mail: straub@tum.de; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

2016-06-01

In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into themore » probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.« less

Implementing informative priors for heterogeneity in meta-analysis using meta-regression and pseudo data.

PubMed

Rhodes, Kirsty M; Turner, Rebecca M; White, Ian R; Jackson, Dan; Spiegelhalter, David J; Higgins, Julian P T

2016-12-20

Many meta-analyses combine results from only a small number of studies, a situation in which the between-study variance is imprecisely estimated when standard methods are applied. Bayesian meta-analysis allows incorporation of external evidence on heterogeneity, providing the potential for more robust inference on the effect size of interest. We present a method for performing Bayesian meta-analysis using data augmentation, in which we represent an informative conjugate prior for between-study variance by pseudo data and use meta-regression for estimation. To assist in this, we derive predictive inverse-gamma distributions for the between-study variance expected in future meta-analyses. These may serve as priors for heterogeneity in new meta-analyses. In a simulation study, we compare approximate Bayesian methods using meta-regression and pseudo data against fully Bayesian approaches based on importance sampling techniques and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We compare the frequentist properties of these Bayesian methods with those of the commonly used frequentist DerSimonian and Laird procedure. The method is implemented in standard statistical software and provides a less complex alternative to standard MCMC approaches. An importance sampling approach produces almost identical results to standard MCMC approaches, and results obtained through meta-regression and pseudo data are very similar. On average, data augmentation provides closer results to MCMC, if implemented using restricted maximum likelihood estimation rather than DerSimonian and Laird or maximum likelihood estimation. The methods are applied to real datasets, and an extension to network meta-analysis is described. The proposed method facilitates Bayesian meta-analysis in a way that is accessible to applied researchers. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tractography-Based Score for Learning Effective Connectivity From Multimodal Imaging Data Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks.

PubMed

Dang, Shilpa; Chaudhury, Santanu; Lall, Brejesh; Roy, Prasun K

2018-05-01

Effective connectivity (EC) is the methodology for determining functional-integration among the functionally active segregated regions of the brain. By definition EC is "the causal influence exerted by one neuronal group on another" which is constrained by anatomical connectivity (AC) (axonal connections). AC is necessary for EC but does not fully determine it, because synaptic communication occurs dynamically in a context-dependent fashion. Although there is a vast emerging evidence of structure-function relationship using multimodal imaging studies, till date only a few studies have done joint modeling of the two modalities: functional MRI (fMRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). We aim to propose a unified probabilistic framework that combines information from both sources to learn EC using dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). DBNs are probabilistic graphical temporal models that learn EC in an exploratory fashion. Specifically, we propose a novel anatomically informed (AI) score that evaluates fitness of a given connectivity structure to both DTI and fMRI data simultaneously. The AI score is employed in structure learning of DBN given the data. Experiments with synthetic-data demonstrate the face validity of structure learning with our AI score over anatomically uninformed counterpart. Moreover, real-data results are cross-validated by performing classification-experiments. EC inferred on real fMRI-DTI datasets is found to be consistent with previous literature and show promising results in light of the AC present as compared to other classically used techniques such as Granger-causality. Multimodal analyses provide a more reliable basis for differentiating brain under abnormal/diseased conditions than the single modality analysis.

Beyond maximum entropy: Fractal pixon-based image reconstruction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Puetter, R. C.; Pina, R. K.

1994-01-01

We have developed a new Bayesian image reconstruction method that has been shown to be superior to the best implementations of other methods, including Goodness-of-Fit (e.g. Least-Squares and Lucy-Richardson) and Maximum Entropy (ME). Our new method is based on the concept of the pixon, the fundamental, indivisible unit of picture information. Use of the pixon concept provides an improved image model, resulting in an image prior which is superior to that of standard ME.

A cosmic microwave background feature consistent with a cosmic texture.

PubMed

Cruz, M; Turok, N; Vielva, P; Martínez-González, E; Hobson, M

2007-12-07

The Cosmic Microwave Background provides our most ancient image of the universe and our best tool for studying its early evolution. Theories of high-energy physics predict the formation of various types of topological defects in the very early universe, including cosmic texture, which would generate hot and cold spots in the Cosmic Microwave Background. We show through a Bayesian statistical analysis that the most prominent 5 degrees -radius cold spot observed in all-sky images, which is otherwise hard to explain, is compatible with having being caused by a texture. From this model, we constrain the fundamental symmetry-breaking energy scale to be (0) approximately 8.7 x 10(15) gigaelectron volts. If confirmed, this detection of a cosmic defect will probe physics at energies exceeding any conceivable terrestrial experiment.

Next Steps in Bayesian Structural Equation Models: Comments on, Variations of, and Extensions to Muthen and Asparouhov (2012)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rindskopf, David

2012-01-01

Muthen and Asparouhov (2012) made a strong case for the advantages of Bayesian methodology in factor analysis and structural equation models. I show additional extensions and adaptations of their methods and show how non-Bayesians can take advantage of many (though not all) of these advantages by using interval restrictions on parameters. By…

A Bayesian Approach to Person Fit Analysis in Item Response Theory Models. Research Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glas, Cees A. W.; Meijer, Rob R.

A Bayesian approach to the evaluation of person fit in item response theory (IRT) models is presented. In a posterior predictive check, the observed value on a discrepancy variable is positioned in its posterior distribution. In a Bayesian framework, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure can be used to generate samples of the posterior distribution…

Bayesian Latent Class Analysis Tutorial.

PubMed

Li, Yuelin; Lord-Bessen, Jennifer; Shiyko, Mariya; Loeb, Rebecca

2018-01-01

This article is a how-to guide on Bayesian computation using Gibbs sampling, demonstrated in the context of Latent Class Analysis (LCA). It is written for students in quantitative psychology or related fields who have a working knowledge of Bayes Theorem and conditional probability and have experience in writing computer programs in the statistical language R . The overall goals are to provide an accessible and self-contained tutorial, along with a practical computation tool. We begin with how Bayesian computation is typically described in academic articles. Technical difficulties are addressed by a hypothetical, worked-out example. We show how Bayesian computation can be broken down into a series of simpler calculations, which can then be assembled together to complete a computationally more complex model. The details are described much more explicitly than what is typically available in elementary introductions to Bayesian modeling so that readers are not overwhelmed by the mathematics. Moreover, the provided computer program shows how Bayesian LCA can be implemented with relative ease. The computer program is then applied in a large, real-world data set and explained line-by-line. We outline the general steps in how to extend these considerations to other methodological applications. We conclude with suggestions for further readings.

Bayesian multimodel inference for dose-response studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Albers, P.H.

2007-01-01

Statistical inference in dose?response studies is model-based: The analyst posits a mathematical model of the relation between exposure and response, estimates parameters of the model, and reports conclusions conditional on the model. Such analyses rarely include any accounting for the uncertainties associated with model selection. The Bayesian inferential system provides a convenient framework for model selection and multimodel inference. In this paper we briefly describe the Bayesian paradigm and Bayesian multimodel inference. We then present a family of models for multinomial dose?response data and apply Bayesian multimodel inferential methods to the analysis of data on the reproductive success of American kestrels (Falco sparveriuss) exposed to various sublethal dietary concentrations of methylmercury.

Image Processing and Computer Aided Diagnosis in Computed Tomography of the Breast

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

TERMS breast imaging, breast CT, scatter compensation, denoising, CAD , Cone-beam CT 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF...clinical projection images. The CAD tool based on signal known exactly (SKE) scenario is under development. Task 6: Test and compare the...performances of the CAD developed in Task 5 applied to processed projection data from Task 1 with the CAD performance on the projection data without Bayesian

Spatiotemporal motion boundary detection and motion boundary velocity estimation for tracking moving objects with a moving camera: a level sets PDEs approach with concurrent camera motion compensation.

PubMed

Feghali, Rosario; Mitiche, Amar

2004-11-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate a method of tracking moving objects with a moving camera. This method estimates simultaneously the motion induced by camera movement. The problem is formulated as a Bayesian motion-based partitioning problem in the spatiotemporal domain of the image quence. An energy functional is derived from the Bayesian formulation. The Euler-Lagrange descent equations determine imultaneously an estimate of the image motion field induced by camera motion and an estimate of the spatiotemporal motion undary surface. The Euler-Lagrange equation corresponding to the surface is expressed as a level-set partial differential equation for topology independence and numerically stable implementation. The method can be initialized simply and can track multiple objects with nonsimultaneous motions. Velocities on motion boundaries can be estimated from geometrical properties of the motion boundary. Several examples of experimental verification are given using synthetic and real-image sequences.

Bayesian B-spline mapping for dynamic quantitative traits.

PubMed

Xing, Jun; Li, Jiahan; Yang, Runqing; Zhou, Xiaojing; Xu, Shizhong

2012-04-01

Owing to their ability and flexibility to describe individual gene expression at different time points, random regression (RR) analyses have become a popular procedure for the genetic analysis of dynamic traits whose phenotypes are collected over time. Specifically, when modelling the dynamic patterns of gene expressions in the RR framework, B-splines have been proved successful as an alternative to orthogonal polynomials. In the so-called Bayesian B-spline quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping, B-splines are used to characterize the patterns of QTL effects and individual-specific time-dependent environmental errors over time, and the Bayesian shrinkage estimation method is employed to estimate model parameters. Extensive simulations demonstrate that (1) in terms of statistical power, Bayesian B-spline mapping outperforms the interval mapping based on the maximum likelihood; (2) for the simulated dataset with complicated growth curve simulated by B-splines, Legendre polynomial-based Bayesian mapping is not capable of identifying the designed QTLs accurately, even when higher-order Legendre polynomials are considered and (3) for the simulated dataset using Legendre polynomials, the Bayesian B-spline mapping can find the same QTLs as those identified by Legendre polynomial analysis. All simulation results support the necessity and flexibility of B-spline in Bayesian mapping of dynamic traits. The proposed method is also applied to a real dataset, where QTLs controlling the growth trajectory of stem diameters in Populus are located.

Bayesian inference for psychology. Part II: Example applications with JASP.

PubMed

Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Love, Jonathon; Marsman, Maarten; Jamil, Tahira; Ly, Alexander; Verhagen, Josine; Selker, Ravi; Gronau, Quentin F; Dropmann, Damian; Boutin, Bruno; Meerhoff, Frans; Knight, Patrick; Raj, Akash; van Kesteren, Erik-Jan; van Doorn, Johnny; Šmíra, Martin; Epskamp, Sacha; Etz, Alexander; Matzke, Dora; de Jong, Tim; van den Bergh, Don; Sarafoglou, Alexandra; Steingroever, Helen; Derks, Koen; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Morey, Richard D

2018-02-01

Bayesian hypothesis testing presents an attractive alternative to p value hypothesis testing. Part I of this series outlined several advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing, including the ability to quantify evidence and the ability to monitor and update this evidence as data come in, without the need to know the intention with which the data were collected. Despite these and other practical advantages, Bayesian hypothesis tests are still reported relatively rarely. An important impediment to the widespread adoption of Bayesian tests is arguably the lack of user-friendly software for the run-of-the-mill statistical problems that confront psychologists for the analysis of almost every experiment: the t-test, ANOVA, correlation, regression, and contingency tables. In Part II of this series we introduce JASP ( http://www.jasp-stats.org ), an open-source, cross-platform, user-friendly graphical software package that allows users to carry out Bayesian hypothesis tests for standard statistical problems. JASP is based in part on the Bayesian analyses implemented in Morey and Rouder's BayesFactor package for R. Armed with JASP, the practical advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing are only a mouse click away.

Applying Bayesian statistics to the study of psychological trauma: A suggestion for future research.

PubMed

Yalch, Matthew M

2016-03-01

Several contemporary researchers have noted the virtues of Bayesian methods of data analysis. Although debates continue about whether conventional or Bayesian statistics is the "better" approach for researchers in general, there are reasons why Bayesian methods may be well suited to the study of psychological trauma in particular. This article describes how Bayesian statistics offers practical solutions to the problems of data non-normality, small sample size, and missing data common in research on psychological trauma. After a discussion of these problems and the effects they have on trauma research, this article explains the basic philosophical and statistical foundations of Bayesian statistics and how it provides solutions to these problems using an applied example. Results of the literature review and the accompanying example indicates the utility of Bayesian statistics in addressing problems common in trauma research. Bayesian statistics provides a set of methodological tools and a broader philosophical framework that is useful for trauma researchers. Methodological resources are also provided so that interested readers can learn more. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Modeling Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI Data with a Constrained Local AIF.

PubMed

Duan, Chong; Kallehauge, Jesper F; Pérez-Torres, Carlos J; Bretthorst, G Larry; Beeman, Scott C; Tanderup, Kari; Ackerman, Joseph J H; Garbow, Joel R

2018-02-01

This study aims to develop a constrained local arterial input function (cL-AIF) to improve quantitative analysis of dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE)-magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data by accounting for the contrast-agent bolus amplitude error in the voxel-specific AIF. Bayesian probability theory-based parameter estimation and model selection were used to compare tracer kinetic modeling employing either the measured remote-AIF (R-AIF, i.e., the traditional approach) or an inferred cL-AIF against both in silico DCE-MRI data and clinical, cervical cancer DCE-MRI data. When the data model included the cL-AIF, tracer kinetic parameters were correctly estimated from in silico data under contrast-to-noise conditions typical of clinical DCE-MRI experiments. Considering the clinical cervical cancer data, Bayesian model selection was performed for all tumor voxels of the 16 patients (35,602 voxels in total). Among those voxels, a tracer kinetic model that employed the voxel-specific cL-AIF was preferred (i.e., had a higher posterior probability) in 80 % of the voxels compared to the direct use of a single R-AIF. Maps of spatial variation in voxel-specific AIF bolus amplitude and arrival time for heterogeneous tissues, such as cervical cancer, are accessible with the cL-AIF approach. The cL-AIF method, which estimates unique local-AIF amplitude and arrival time for each voxel within the tissue of interest, provides better modeling of DCE-MRI data than the use of a single, measured R-AIF. The Bayesian-based data analysis described herein affords estimates of uncertainties for each model parameter, via posterior probability density functions, and voxel-wise comparison across methods/models, via model selection in data modeling.

Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis for Unordered Categorical Outcomes with Incomplete Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmid, Christopher H.; Trikalinos, Thomas A.; Olkin, Ingram

2014-01-01

We develop a Bayesian multinomial network meta-analysis model for unordered (nominal) categorical outcomes that allows for partially observed data in which exact event counts may not be known for each category. This model properly accounts for correlations of counts in mutually exclusive categories and enables proper comparison and ranking of…

A Comparison of Imputation Methods for Bayesian Factor Analysis Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merkle, Edgar C.

2011-01-01

Imputation methods are popular for the handling of missing data in psychology. The methods generally consist of predicting missing data based on observed data, yielding a complete data set that is amiable to standard statistical analyses. In the context of Bayesian factor analysis, this article compares imputation under an unrestricted…

Modeling Associations among Multivariate Longitudinal Categorical Variables in Survey Data: A Semiparametric Bayesian Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tchumtchoua, Sylvie; Dey, Dipak K.

2012-01-01

This paper proposes a semiparametric Bayesian framework for the analysis of associations among multivariate longitudinal categorical variables in high-dimensional data settings. This type of data is frequent, especially in the social and behavioral sciences. A semiparametric hierarchical factor analysis model is developed in which the…

Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Cronbach's Coefficient Alpha to Evaluate Informative Hypotheses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Okada, Kensuke

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a new method to evaluate informative hypotheses for meta-analysis of Cronbach's coefficient alpha using a Bayesian approach. The coefficient alpha is one of the most widely used reliability indices. In meta-analyses of reliability, researchers typically form specific informative hypotheses beforehand, such as "alpha of…

Assessment of Matrix Multiplication Learning with a Rule-Based Analytical Model--"A Bayesian Network Representation"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Zhidong

2016-01-01

This study explored an alternative assessment procedure to examine learning trajectories of matrix multiplication. It took rule-based analytical and cognitive task analysis methods specifically to break down operation rules for a given matrix multiplication. Based on the analysis results, a hierarchical Bayesian network, an assessment model,…

Using Discrete Loss Functions and Weighted Kappa for Classification: An Illustration Based on Bayesian Network Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zwick, Rebecca; Lenaburg, Lubella

2009-01-01

In certain data analyses (e.g., multiple discriminant analysis and multinomial log-linear modeling), classification decisions are made based on the estimated posterior probabilities that individuals belong to each of several distinct categories. In the Bayesian network literature, this type of classification is often accomplished by assigning…

Application of Multiple Imputation for Missing Values in Three-Way Three-Mode Multi-Environment Trial Data

PubMed Central

Tian, Ting; McLachlan, Geoffrey J.; Dieters, Mark J.; Basford, Kaye E.

2015-01-01

It is a common occurrence in plant breeding programs to observe missing values in three-way three-mode multi-environment trial (MET) data. We proposed modifications of models for estimating missing observations for these data arrays, and developed a novel approach in terms of hierarchical clustering. Multiple imputation (MI) was used in four ways, multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering, normal distribution model, normal regression model, and predictive mean match. The later three models used both Bayesian analysis and non-Bayesian analysis, while the first approach used a clustering procedure with randomly selected attributes and assigned real values from the nearest neighbour to the one with missing observations. Different proportions of data entries in six complete datasets were randomly selected to be missing and the MI methods were compared based on the efficiency and accuracy of estimating those values. The results indicated that the models using Bayesian analysis had slightly higher accuracy of estimation performance than those using non-Bayesian analysis but they were more time-consuming. However, the novel approach of multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering demonstrated the overall best performances. PMID:26689369

Application of Multiple Imputation for Missing Values in Three-Way Three-Mode Multi-Environment Trial Data.

PubMed

Tian, Ting; McLachlan, Geoffrey J; Dieters, Mark J; Basford, Kaye E

2015-01-01

It is a common occurrence in plant breeding programs to observe missing values in three-way three-mode multi-environment trial (MET) data. We proposed modifications of models for estimating missing observations for these data arrays, and developed a novel approach in terms of hierarchical clustering. Multiple imputation (MI) was used in four ways, multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering, normal distribution model, normal regression model, and predictive mean match. The later three models used both Bayesian analysis and non-Bayesian analysis, while the first approach used a clustering procedure with randomly selected attributes and assigned real values from the nearest neighbour to the one with missing observations. Different proportions of data entries in six complete datasets were randomly selected to be missing and the MI methods were compared based on the efficiency and accuracy of estimating those values. The results indicated that the models using Bayesian analysis had slightly higher accuracy of estimation performance than those using non-Bayesian analysis but they were more time-consuming. However, the novel approach of multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering demonstrated the overall best performances.

A hybrid Bayesian hierarchical model combining cohort and case-control studies for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests: Accounting for partial verification bias.

PubMed

Ma, Xiaoye; Chen, Yong; Cole, Stephen R; Chu, Haitao

2016-12-01

To account for between-study heterogeneity in meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies, bivariate random effects models have been recommended to jointly model the sensitivities and specificities. As study design and population vary, the definition of disease status or severity could differ across studies. Consequently, sensitivity and specificity may be correlated with disease prevalence. To account for this dependence, a trivariate random effects model had been proposed. However, the proposed approach can only include cohort studies with information estimating study-specific disease prevalence. In addition, some diagnostic accuracy studies only select a subset of samples to be verified by the reference test. It is known that ignoring unverified subjects may lead to partial verification bias in the estimation of prevalence, sensitivities, and specificities in a single study. However, the impact of this bias on a meta-analysis has not been investigated. In this paper, we propose a novel hybrid Bayesian hierarchical model combining cohort and case-control studies and correcting partial verification bias at the same time. We investigate the performance of the proposed methods through a set of simulation studies. Two case studies on assessing the diagnostic accuracy of gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging in detecting lymph node metastases and of adrenal fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography in characterizing adrenal masses are presented. © The Author(s) 2014.

A Hybrid Bayesian Hierarchical Model Combining Cohort and Case-control Studies for Meta-analysis of Diagnostic Tests: Accounting for Partial Verification Bias

PubMed Central

Ma, Xiaoye; Chen, Yong; Cole, Stephen R.; Chu, Haitao

2014-01-01

To account for between-study heterogeneity in meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies, bivariate random effects models have been recommended to jointly model the sensitivities and specificities. As study design and population vary, the definition of disease status or severity could differ across studies. Consequently, sensitivity and specificity may be correlated with disease prevalence. To account for this dependence, a trivariate random effects model had been proposed. However, the proposed approach can only include cohort studies with information estimating study-specific disease prevalence. In addition, some diagnostic accuracy studies only select a subset of samples to be verified by the reference test. It is known that ignoring unverified subjects may lead to partial verification bias in the estimation of prevalence, sensitivities and specificities in a single study. However, the impact of this bias on a meta-analysis has not been investigated. In this paper, we propose a novel hybrid Bayesian hierarchical model combining cohort and case-control studies and correcting partial verification bias at the same time. We investigate the performance of the proposed methods through a set of simulation studies. Two case studies on assessing the diagnostic accuracy of gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging in detecting lymph node metastases and of adrenal fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography in characterizing adrenal masses are presented. PMID:24862512

Approximate string matching algorithms for limited-vocabulary OCR output correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasko, Thomas A.; Hauser, Susan E.

2000-12-01

Five methods for matching words mistranslated by optical character recognition to their most likely match in a reference dictionary were tested on data from the archives of the National Library of Medicine. The methods, including an adaptation of the cross correlation algorithm, the generic edit distance algorithm, the edit distance algorithm with a probabilistic substitution matrix, Bayesian analysis, and Bayesian analysis on an actively thinned reference dictionary were implemented and their accuracy rates compared. Of the five, the Bayesian algorithm produced the most correct matches (87%), and had the advantage of producing scores that have a useful and practical interpretation.

Bayesian conditional-independence modeling of the AIDS epidemic in England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilks, Walter R.; De Angelis, Daniela; Day, Nicholas E.

We describe the use of conditional-independence modeling, Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo, to model and project the HIV-AIDS epidemic in homosexual/bisexual males in England and Wales. Complexity in this analysis arises through selectively missing data, indirectly observed underlying processes, and measurement error. Our emphasis is on presentation and discussion of the concepts, not on the technicalities of this analysis, which can be found elsewhere [D. De Angelis, W.R. Gilks, N.E. Day, Bayesian projection of the the acquired immune deficiency syndrome epidemic (with discussion), Applied Statistics, in press].

Time-varying nonstationary multivariate risk analysis using a dynamic Bayesian copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, Ali; Burn, Donald H.; Concepción Ausín, María.; Wiper, Michael P.

2016-03-01

A time-varying risk analysis is proposed for an adaptive design framework in nonstationary conditions arising from climate change. A Bayesian, dynamic conditional copula is developed for modeling the time-varying dependence structure between mixed continuous and discrete multiattributes of multidimensional hydrometeorological phenomena. Joint Bayesian inference is carried out to fit the marginals and copula in an illustrative example using an adaptive, Gibbs Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. Posterior mean estimates and credible intervals are provided for the model parameters and the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) is used to select the model that best captures different forms of nonstationarity over time. This study also introduces a fully Bayesian, time-varying joint return period for multivariate time-dependent risk analysis in nonstationary environments. The results demonstrate that the nature and the risk of extreme-climate multidimensional processes are changed over time under the impact of climate change, and accordingly the long-term decision making strategies should be updated based on the anomalies of the nonstationary environment.

Bayesian model reduction and empirical Bayes for group (DCM) studies

PubMed Central

Friston, Karl J.; Litvak, Vladimir; Oswal, Ashwini; Razi, Adeel; Stephan, Klaas E.; van Wijk, Bernadette C.M.; Ziegler, Gabriel; Zeidman, Peter

2016-01-01

This technical note describes some Bayesian procedures for the analysis of group studies that use nonlinear models at the first (within-subject) level – e.g., dynamic causal models – and linear models at subsequent (between-subject) levels. Its focus is on using Bayesian model reduction to finesse the inversion of multiple models of a single dataset or a single (hierarchical or empirical Bayes) model of multiple datasets. These applications of Bayesian model reduction allow one to consider parametric random effects and make inferences about group effects very efficiently (in a few seconds). We provide the relatively straightforward theoretical background to these procedures and illustrate their application using a worked example. This example uses a simulated mismatch negativity study of schizophrenia. We illustrate the robustness of Bayesian model reduction to violations of the (commonly used) Laplace assumption in dynamic causal modelling and show how its recursive application can facilitate both classical and Bayesian inference about group differences. Finally, we consider the application of these empirical Bayesian procedures to classification and prediction. PMID:26569570

A Pragmatic Bayesian Perspective on Correlation Analysis. The exoplanetary gravity - stellar activity case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figueira, P.; Faria, J. P.; Adibekyan, V. Zh.; Oshagh, M.; Santos, N. C.

2016-11-01

We apply the Bayesian framework to assess the presence of a correlation between two quantities. To do so, we estimate the probability distribution of the parameter of interest, ρ, characterizing the strength of the correlation. We provide an implementation of these ideas and concepts using python programming language and the pyMC module in a very short (˜ 130 lines of code, heavily commented) and user-friendly program. We used this tool to assess the presence and properties of the correlation between planetary surface gravity and stellar activity level as measured by the log(R^' }_{ {HK}}) indicator. The results of the Bayesian analysis are qualitatively similar to those obtained via p-value analysis, and support the presence of a correlation in the data. The results are more robust in their derivation and more informative, revealing interesting features such as asymmetric posterior distributions or markedly different credible intervals, and allowing for a deeper exploration. We encourage the reader interested in this kind of problem to apply our code to his/her own scientific problems. The full understanding of what the Bayesian framework is can only be gained through the insight that comes by handling priors, assessing the convergence of Monte Carlo runs, and a multitude of other practical problems. We hope to contribute so that Bayesian analysis becomes a tool in the toolkit of researchers, and they understand by experience its advantages and limitations.

Dynamic Denoising of Tracking Sequences

PubMed Central

Michailovich, Oleg; Tannenbaum, Allen

2009-01-01

In this paper, we describe an approach to the problem of simultaneously enhancing image sequences and tracking the objects of interest represented by the latter. The enhancement part of the algorithm is based on Bayesian wavelet denoising, which has been chosen due to its exceptional ability to incorporate diverse a priori information into the process of image recovery. In particular, we demonstrate that, in dynamic settings, useful statistical priors can come both from some reasonable assumptions on the properties of the image to be enhanced as well as from the images that have already been observed before the current scene. Using such priors forms the main contribution of the present paper which is the proposal of the dynamic denoising as a tool for simultaneously enhancing and tracking image sequences. Within the proposed framework, the previous observations of a dynamic scene are employed to enhance its present observation. The mechanism that allows the fusion of the information within successive image frames is Bayesian estimation, while transferring the useful information between the images is governed by a Kalman filter that is used for both prediction and estimation of the dynamics of tracked objects. Therefore, in this methodology, the processes of target tracking and image enhancement “collaborate” in an interlacing manner, rather than being applied separately. The dynamic denoising is demonstrated on several examples of SAR imagery. The results demonstrated in this paper indicate a number of advantages of the proposed dynamic denoising over “static” approaches, in which the tracking images are enhanced independently of each other. PMID:18482881

A simple parametric model observer for quality assurance in computer tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anton, M.; Khanin, A.; Kretz, T.; Reginatto, M.; Elster, C.

2018-04-01

Model observers are mathematical classifiers that are used for the quality assessment of imaging systems such as computer tomography. The quality of the imaging system is quantified by means of the performance of a selected model observer. For binary classification tasks, the performance of the model observer is defined by the area under its ROC curve (AUC). Typically, the AUC is estimated by applying the model observer to a large set of training and test data. However, the recording of these large data sets is not always practical for routine quality assurance. In this paper we propose as an alternative a parametric model observer that is based on a simple phantom, and we provide a Bayesian estimation of its AUC. It is shown that a limited number of repeatedly recorded images (10–15) is already sufficient to obtain results suitable for the quality assessment of an imaging system. A MATLAB® function is provided for the calculation of the results. The performance of the proposed model observer is compared to that of the established channelized Hotelling observer and the nonprewhitening matched filter for simulated images as well as for images obtained from a low-contrast phantom on an x-ray tomography scanner. The results suggest that the proposed parametric model observer, along with its Bayesian treatment, can provide an efficient, practical alternative for the quality assessment of CT imaging systems.

Bayesian analysis of time-series data under case-crossover designs: posterior equivalence and inference.

PubMed

Li, Shi; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Batterman, Stuart; Ghosh, Malay

2013-12-01

Case-crossover designs are widely used to study short-term exposure effects on the risk of acute adverse health events. While the frequentist literature on this topic is vast, there is no Bayesian work in this general area. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, the paper establishes Bayesian equivalence results that require characterization of the set of priors under which the posterior distributions of the risk ratio parameters based on a case-crossover and time-series analysis are identical. Second, the paper studies inferential issues under case-crossover designs in a Bayesian framework. Traditionally, a conditional logistic regression is used for inference on risk-ratio parameters in case-crossover studies. We consider instead a more general full likelihood-based approach which makes less restrictive assumptions on the risk functions. Formulation of a full likelihood leads to growth in the number of parameters proportional to the sample size. We propose a semi-parametric Bayesian approach using a Dirichlet process prior to handle the random nuisance parameters that appear in a full likelihood formulation. We carry out a simulation study to compare the Bayesian methods based on full and conditional likelihood with the standard frequentist approaches for case-crossover and time-series analysis. The proposed methods are illustrated through the Detroit Asthma Morbidity, Air Quality and Traffic study, which examines the association between acute asthma risk and ambient air pollutant concentrations. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Hyperspectral Image Classification With Markov Random Fields and a Convolutional Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Xiangyong; Zhou, Feng; Xu, Lin; Meng, Deyu; Xu, Zongben; Paisley, John

2018-05-01

This paper presents a new supervised classification algorithm for remotely sensed hyperspectral image (HSI) which integrates spectral and spatial information in a unified Bayesian framework. First, we formulate the HSI classification problem from a Bayesian perspective. Then, we adopt a convolutional neural network (CNN) to learn the posterior class distributions using a patch-wise training strategy to better use the spatial information. Next, spatial information is further considered by placing a spatial smoothness prior on the labels. Finally, we iteratively update the CNN parameters using stochastic gradient decent (SGD) and update the class labels of all pixel vectors using an alpha-expansion min-cut-based algorithm. Compared with other state-of-the-art methods, the proposed classification method achieves better performance on one synthetic dataset and two benchmark HSI datasets in a number of experimental settings.

Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

2007-08-01

According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

A Risk Analysis of the Molybdenum-99 Supply Chain Using Bayesian Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Jeffrey Ryan

The production of Molybdenum-99 (99Mo) is critical to the field of nuclear medicine, where it is utilized in roughly 80% of all nuclear imaging procedures. In October of 2016, the National Research Universal (NRU) reactor in Canada, which historically had the highest 99Mo production capability worldwide, ceased routine production and will be permanently shut down in 2018. This loss of capacity has led to widespread concern over the ability of the 99Mo supply chain and to meet demand. There is significant disagreement among analyses from trade groups, governments, and other researchers, predicting everything from no significant impact to major worldwide shortages. Using Bayesian networks, this research focused on modeling the 99Mo supply chain to quantify how a disrupting event, such as the unscheduled downtime of a reactor, will impact the global supply. This not only includes quantifying the probability of a shortage occurring, but also identifying which nodes in the supply chain introduce the most risk to better inform decision makers on where future facilities or other risk mitigation techniques should be applied.

Broiler weight estimation based on machine vision and artificial neural network.

PubMed

Amraei, S; Abdanan Mehdizadeh, S; Salari, S

2017-04-01

1. Machine vision and artificial neural network (ANN) procedures were used to estimate live body weight of broiler chickens in 30 1-d-old broiler chickens reared for 42 d. 2. Imaging was performed two times daily. To localise chickens within the pen, an ellipse fitting algorithm was used and the chickens' head and tail removed using the Chan-Vese method. 3. The correlations between the body weight and 6 physical extracted features indicated that there were strong correlations between body weight and the 5 features including area, perimeter, convex area, major and minor axis length. 5. According to statistical analysis there was no significant difference between morning and afternoon data over 42 d. 6. In an attempt to improve the accuracy of live weight approximation different ANN techniques, including Bayesian regulation, Levenberg-Marquardt, Scaled conjugate gradient and gradient descent were used. Bayesian regulation with R 2 value of 0.98 was the best network for prediction of broiler weight. 7. The accuracy of the machine vision technique was examined and most errors were less than 50 g.

A taxonomic monograph of Nearctic Scolytus Geoffroy (Coleoptera, Curculionidae, Scolytinae)

PubMed Central

Smith, Sarah M.; Cognato, Anthony I.

2014-01-01

Abstract The Nearctic bark beetle genus Scolytus Geoffroy was revised based in part on a molecular and morphological phylogeny. Monophyly of the native species was tested using mitochondrial (COI) and nuclear (28S, CAD, ArgK) genes and 43 morphological characters in parsimony and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses. Parsimony analyses of molecular and combined datasets provided mixed results while Bayesian analysis recovered most nodes with posterior probabilities >90%. Native hardwood- and conifer-feeding Scolytus species were recovered as paraphyletic. Native Nearctic species were recovered as paraphyletic with hardwood-feeding species sister to Palearctic hardwood-feeding species rather than to native conifer-feeding species. The Nearctic conifer-feeding species were monophyletic. Twenty-five species were recognized. Four new synonyms were discovered: Scolytus praeceps LeConte, 1868 (= Scolytus abietis Blackman, 1934; = Scolytus opacus Blackman, 1934), Scolytus reflexus Blackman, 1934 (= Scolytus virgatus Bright, 1972; = Scolytus wickhami Blackman, 1934). Two species were reinstated: Scolytus fiskei Blackman, 1934 and Scolytus silvaticus Bright, 1972. A diagnosis, description, distribution, host records and images were provided for each species and a key is presented to all species. PMID:25408617

A Computationally-Efficient Inverse Approach to Probabilistic Strain-Based Damage Diagnosis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Warner, James E.; Hochhalter, Jacob D.; Leser, William P.; Leser, Patrick E.; Newman, John A

2016-01-01

This work presents a computationally-efficient inverse approach to probabilistic damage diagnosis. Given strain data at a limited number of measurement locations, Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling are used to estimate probability distributions of the unknown location, size, and orientation of damage. Substantial computational speedup is obtained by replacing a three-dimensional finite element (FE) model with an efficient surrogate model. The approach is experimentally validated on cracked test specimens where full field strains are determined using digital image correlation (DIC). Access to full field DIC data allows for testing of different hypothetical sensor arrangements, facilitating the study of strain-based diagnosis effectiveness as the distance between damage and measurement locations increases. The ability of the framework to effectively perform both probabilistic damage localization and characterization in cracked plates is demonstrated and the impact of measurement location on uncertainty in the predictions is shown. Furthermore, the analysis time to produce these predictions is orders of magnitude less than a baseline Bayesian approach with the FE method by utilizing surrogate modeling and effective numerical sampling approaches.

Accounting for tissue heterogeneity in infrared spectroscopic imaging for accurate diagnosis of thyroid carcinoma subtypes.

PubMed

Martinez-Marin, David; Sreedhar, Hari; Varma, Vishal K; Eloy, Catarina; Sobrinho-Simões, Manuel; Kajdacsy-Balla, André; Walsh, Michael J

2017-07-01

Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) microscopy was used to image tissue samples from twenty patients diagnosed with thyroid carcinoma. The spectral data were then used to differentiate between follicular thyroid carcinoma and follicular variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma using principle component analysis coupled with linear discriminant analysis and a Naïve Bayesian classifier operating on a set of computed spectral metrics. Classification of patients' disease type was accomplished by using average spectra from a wide region containing follicular cells, colloid, and fibrosis; however, classification of disease state at the pixel level was only possible when the extracted spectra were limited to follicular epithelial cells in the samples, excluding the relatively uninformative areas of fibrosis. The results demonstrate the potential of FT-IR microscopy as a tool to assist in the difficult diagnosis of these subtypes of thyroid cancer, and also highlights the importance of selectively and separately analyzing spectral information from different features of a tissue of interest.

Digital holographic microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkley, Solomon; Dimiduk, Thomas; Manoharan, Vinothan

Digital holographic microscopy is a 3D optical imaging technique with high temporal ( ms) and spatial ( 10 nm) precision. However, its adoption as a characterization technique has been limited due to the inherent difficulty of recovering 3D data from the holograms. Successful analysis has traditionally required substantial knowledge about the sample being imaged (for example, the approximate positions of particles in the field of view), as well as expertise in scattering theory. To overcome the obstacles to widespread adoption of holographic microscopy, we developed HoloPy - an open source python package for analysis of holograms and scattering data. HoloPy uses Bayesian statistical methods to determine the geometry and properties of discrete scatterers from raw holograms. We demonstrate the use of HoloPy to measure the dynamics of colloidal particles at interfaces, to ascertain the structures of self-assembled colloidal particles, and to track freely swimming bacteria. The HoloPy codebase is thoroughly tested and well-documented to facilitate use by the broader experimental community. This research is supported by NSF Grant DMR-1306410 and NSERC.

The Bayesian approach to reporting GSR analysis results: some first-hand experiences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charles, Sebastien; Nys, Bart

2010-06-01

The use of Bayesian principles in the reporting of forensic findings has been a matter of interest for some years. Recently, also the GSR community is gradually exploring the advantages of this method, or rather approach, for writing reports. Since last year, our GSR group is adapting reporting procedures to the use of Bayesian principles. The police and magistrates find the reports more directly accessible and useful in their part of the criminal investigation. In the lab we find that, through applying the Bayesian principles, unnecessary analyses can be eliminated and thus time can be freed on the instruments.

Bayesian Analysis of Multidimensional Item Response Theory Models: A Discussion and Illustration of Three Response Style Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leventhal, Brian C.; Stone, Clement A.

2018-01-01

Interest in Bayesian analysis of item response theory (IRT) models has grown tremendously due to the appeal of the paradigm among psychometricians, advantages of these methods when analyzing complex models, and availability of general-purpose software. Possible models include models which reflect multidimensionality due to designed test structure,…

Symptoms of Depression and Challenging Behaviours in People with Intellectual Disability: A Bayesian Analysis. Brief Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tsiouris, John; Mann, Rachel; Patti, Paul; Sturmey, Peter

2004-01-01

Clinicians need to know the likelihood of a condition given a positive or negative diagnostic test. In this study a Bayesian analysis of the Clinical Behavior Checklist for Persons with Intellectual Disabilities (CBCPID) to predict depression in people with intellectual disability was conducted. The CBCPID was administered to 92 adults with…

Bayesian analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects for patient-centered outcomes research.

PubMed

Henderson, Nicholas C; Louis, Thomas A; Wang, Chenguang; Varadhan, Ravi

2016-01-01

Evaluation of heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE) is an essential aspect of personalized medicine and patient-centered outcomes research. Our goal in this article is to promote the use of Bayesian methods for subgroup analysis and to lower the barriers to their implementation by describing the ways in which the companion software beanz can facilitate these types of analyses. To advance this goal, we describe several key Bayesian models for investigating HTE and outline the ways in which they are well-suited to address many of the commonly cited challenges in the study of HTE. Topics highlighted include shrinkage estimation, model choice, sensitivity analysis, and posterior predictive checking. A case study is presented in which we demonstrate the use of the methods discussed.

Enhancements of Bayesian Blocks; Application to Large Light Curve Databases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scargle, Jeff

2015-01-01

Bayesian Blocks are optimal piecewise linear representations (step function fits) of light-curves. The simple algorithm implementing this idea, using dynamic programming, has been extended to include more data modes and fitness metrics, multivariate analysis, and data on the circle (Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. VI. Bayesian Block Representations, Scargle, Norris, Jackson and Chiang 2013, ApJ, 764, 167), as well as new results on background subtraction and refinement of the procedure for precise timing of transient events in sparse data. Example demonstrations will include exploratory analysis of the Kepler light curve archive in a search for "star-tickling" signals from extraterrestrial civilizations. (The Cepheid Galactic Internet, Learned, Kudritzki, Pakvasa1, and Zee, 2008, arXiv: 0809.0339; Walkowicz et al., in progress).

Enhanced optical alignment of a digital micro mirror device through Bayesian adaptive exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wynne, Kevin B.; Knuth, Kevin H.; Petruccelli, Jonathan

2017-12-01

As the use of Digital Micro Mirror Devices (DMDs) becomes more prevalent in optics research, the ability to precisely locate the Fourier "footprint" of an image beam at the Fourier plane becomes a pressing need. In this approach, Bayesian adaptive exploration techniques were employed to characterize the size and position of the beam on a DMD located at the Fourier plane. It couples a Bayesian inference engine with an inquiry engine to implement the search. The inquiry engine explores the DMD by engaging mirrors and recording light intensity values based on the maximization of the expected information gain. Using the data collected from this exploration, the Bayesian inference engine updates the posterior probability describing the beam's characteristics. The process is iterated until the beam is located to within the desired precision. This methodology not only locates the center and radius of the beam with remarkable precision but accomplishes the task in far less time than a brute force search. The employed approach has applications to system alignment for both Fourier processing and coded aperture design.

Comparing diffuse optical tomography and functional magnetic resonance imaging signals during a cognitive task: pilot study

PubMed Central

Hernández-Martin, Estefania; Marcano, Francisco; Casanova, Oscar; Modroño, Cristian; Plata-Bello, Julio; González-Mora, Jose Luis

2017-01-01

Abstract. Diffuse optical tomography (DOT) measures concentration changes in both oxy- and deoxyhemoglobin providing three-dimensional images of local brain activations. A pilot study, which compares both DOT and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) volumes through t-maps given by canonical statistical parametric mapping (SPM) processing for both data modalities, is presented. The DOT series were processed using a method that is based on a Bayesian filter application on raw DOT data to remove physiological changes and minimum description length application index to select a number of singular values, which reduce the data dimensionality during image reconstruction and adaptation of DOT volume series to normalized standard space. Therefore, statistical analysis is performed with canonical SPM software in the same way as fMRI analysis is done, accepting DOT volumes as if they were fMRI volumes. The results show the reproducibility and ruggedness of the method to process DOT series on group analysis using cognitive paradigms on the prefrontal cortex. Difficulties such as the fact that scalp–brain distances vary between subjects or cerebral activations are difficult to reproduce due to strategies used by the subjects to solve arithmetic problems are considered. T-images given by fMRI and DOT volume series analyzed in SPM show that at the functional level, both DOT and fMRI measures detect the same areas, although DOT provides complementary information to fMRI signals about cerebral activity. PMID:28386575

Analyses in Support of the WFIRST Supernova Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubin, David; Aldering, Greg Scott; Charles, Baltay; Barbary, Kyle H.; Currie, Miles; Deustua, Susana E.; Fagrelius, Parker; Dosovitz Fox, Ori; Fruchter, Andrew S.; Law, David R.; Perlmutter, Saul; Pontoppidan, Klaus; Rabinowitz, David L.; Sako, Masao

2017-01-01

The Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) is a future optical-NIR space telescope with science spanning astrophysics and cosmology. The combination of wide-field IR imaging and optical-NIR integral-field spectroscopy enables a SN cosmology experiment with excellent systematics control. The Science Definition Team (SDT) presented a first concept of such a survey with 2700 SNe to z=1.7. We make several key improvements to the SDT analysis, including a significantly improved exposure-time calculator, evaluations of host-galaxy background light, supernova typing simulations, all combined with spectrophotometric cosmology analysis built on a Bayesian hierarchal model. Our work will be useful for deriving accurate cosmological forecasts, optimizing the survey, and the evaluation of calibration, resolution, and stability requirements.

Spatio Temporal EEG Source Imaging with the Hierarchical Bayesian Elastic Net and Elitist Lasso Models

PubMed Central

Paz-Linares, Deirel; Vega-Hernández, Mayrim; Rojas-López, Pedro A.; Valdés-Hernández, Pedro A.; Martínez-Montes, Eduardo; Valdés-Sosa, Pedro A.

2017-01-01

The estimation of EEG generating sources constitutes an Inverse Problem (IP) in Neuroscience. This is an ill-posed problem due to the non-uniqueness of the solution and regularization or prior information is needed to undertake Electrophysiology Source Imaging. Structured Sparsity priors can be attained through combinations of (L1 norm-based) and (L2 norm-based) constraints such as the Elastic Net (ENET) and Elitist Lasso (ELASSO) models. The former model is used to find solutions with a small number of smooth nonzero patches, while the latter imposes different degrees of sparsity simultaneously along different dimensions of the spatio-temporal matrix solutions. Both models have been addressed within the penalized regression approach, where the regularization parameters are selected heuristically, leading usually to non-optimal and computationally expensive solutions. The existing Bayesian formulation of ENET allows hyperparameter learning, but using the computationally intensive Monte Carlo/Expectation Maximization methods, which makes impractical its application to the EEG IP. While the ELASSO have not been considered before into the Bayesian context. In this work, we attempt to solve the EEG IP using a Bayesian framework for ENET and ELASSO models. We propose a Structured Sparse Bayesian Learning algorithm based on combining the Empirical Bayes and the iterative coordinate descent procedures to estimate both the parameters and hyperparameters. Using realistic simulations and avoiding the inverse crime we illustrate that our methods are able to recover complicated source setups more accurately and with a more robust estimation of the hyperparameters and behavior under different sparsity scenarios than classical LORETA, ENET and LASSO Fusion solutions. We also solve the EEG IP using data from a visual attention experiment, finding more interpretable neurophysiological patterns with our methods. The Matlab codes used in this work, including Simulations, Methods, Quality Measures and Visualization Routines are freely available in a public website. PMID:29200994

Spatio Temporal EEG Source Imaging with the Hierarchical Bayesian Elastic Net and Elitist Lasso Models.

PubMed

Paz-Linares, Deirel; Vega-Hernández, Mayrim; Rojas-López, Pedro A; Valdés-Hernández, Pedro A; Martínez-Montes, Eduardo; Valdés-Sosa, Pedro A

2017-01-01

The estimation of EEG generating sources constitutes an Inverse Problem (IP) in Neuroscience. This is an ill-posed problem due to the non-uniqueness of the solution and regularization or prior information is needed to undertake Electrophysiology Source Imaging. Structured Sparsity priors can be attained through combinations of (L1 norm-based) and (L2 norm-based) constraints such as the Elastic Net (ENET) and Elitist Lasso (ELASSO) models. The former model is used to find solutions with a small number of smooth nonzero patches, while the latter imposes different degrees of sparsity simultaneously along different dimensions of the spatio-temporal matrix solutions. Both models have been addressed within the penalized regression approach, where the regularization parameters are selected heuristically, leading usually to non-optimal and computationally expensive solutions. The existing Bayesian formulation of ENET allows hyperparameter learning, but using the computationally intensive Monte Carlo/Expectation Maximization methods, which makes impractical its application to the EEG IP. While the ELASSO have not been considered before into the Bayesian context. In this work, we attempt to solve the EEG IP using a Bayesian framework for ENET and ELASSO models. We propose a Structured Sparse Bayesian Learning algorithm based on combining the Empirical Bayes and the iterative coordinate descent procedures to estimate both the parameters and hyperparameters. Using realistic simulations and avoiding the inverse crime we illustrate that our methods are able to recover complicated source setups more accurately and with a more robust estimation of the hyperparameters and behavior under different sparsity scenarios than classical LORETA, ENET and LASSO Fusion solutions. We also solve the EEG IP using data from a visual attention experiment, finding more interpretable neurophysiological patterns with our methods. The Matlab codes used in this work, including Simulations, Methods, Quality Measures and Visualization Routines are freely available in a public website.

Estimating size and scope economies in the Portuguese water sector using the Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis.

PubMed

Carvalho, Pedro; Marques, Rui Cunha

2016-02-15

This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the Portuguese water sector applying Bayesian and classical statistics to make inference in stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). This study proves the usefulness and advantages of the application of Bayesian statistics for making inference in SFA over traditional SFA which just uses classical statistics. The resulting Bayesian methods allow overcoming some problems that arise in the application of the traditional SFA, such as the bias in small samples and skewness of residuals. In the present case study of the water sector in Portugal, these Bayesian methods provide more plausible and acceptable results. Based on the results obtained we found that there are important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope in the Portuguese water sector, pointing out to the huge advantages in undertaking mergers by joining the retail and wholesale components and by joining the drinking water and wastewater services. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Blind Source Parameters for Performance Evaluation of Despeckling Filters.

PubMed

Biradar, Nagashettappa; Dewal, M L; Rohit, ManojKumar; Gowre, Sanjaykumar; Gundge, Yogesh

2016-01-01

The speckle noise is inherent to transthoracic echocardiographic images. A standard noise-free reference echocardiographic image does not exist. The evaluation of filters based on the traditional parameters such as peak signal-to-noise ratio, mean square error, and structural similarity index may not reflect the true filter performance on echocardiographic images. Therefore, the performance of despeckling can be evaluated using blind assessment metrics like the speckle suppression index, speckle suppression and mean preservation index (SMPI), and beta metric. The need for noise-free reference image is overcome using these three parameters. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis and evaluation of eleven types of despeckling filters for echocardiographic images in terms of blind and traditional performance parameters along with clinical validation. The noise is effectively suppressed using the logarithmic neighborhood shrinkage (NeighShrink) embedded with Stein's unbiased risk estimation (SURE). The SMPI is three times more effective compared to the wavelet based generalized likelihood estimation approach. The quantitative evaluation and clinical validation reveal that the filters such as the nonlocal mean, posterior sampling based Bayesian estimation, hybrid median, and probabilistic patch based filters are acceptable whereas median, anisotropic diffusion, fuzzy, and Ripplet nonlinear approximation filters have limited applications for echocardiographic images.

Blind Source Parameters for Performance Evaluation of Despeckling Filters

PubMed Central

Biradar, Nagashettappa; Dewal, M. L.; Rohit, ManojKumar; Gowre, Sanjaykumar; Gundge, Yogesh

2016-01-01

The speckle noise is inherent to transthoracic echocardiographic images. A standard noise-free reference echocardiographic image does not exist. The evaluation of filters based on the traditional parameters such as peak signal-to-noise ratio, mean square error, and structural similarity index may not reflect the true filter performance on echocardiographic images. Therefore, the performance of despeckling can be evaluated using blind assessment metrics like the speckle suppression index, speckle suppression and mean preservation index (SMPI), and beta metric. The need for noise-free reference image is overcome using these three parameters. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis and evaluation of eleven types of despeckling filters for echocardiographic images in terms of blind and traditional performance parameters along with clinical validation. The noise is effectively suppressed using the logarithmic neighborhood shrinkage (NeighShrink) embedded with Stein's unbiased risk estimation (SURE). The SMPI is three times more effective compared to the wavelet based generalized likelihood estimation approach. The quantitative evaluation and clinical validation reveal that the filters such as the nonlocal mean, posterior sampling based Bayesian estimation, hybrid median, and probabilistic patch based filters are acceptable whereas median, anisotropic diffusion, fuzzy, and Ripplet nonlinear approximation filters have limited applications for echocardiographic images. PMID:27298618

Efficient Bayesian hierarchical functional data analysis with basis function approximations using Gaussian-Wishart processes.

PubMed

Yang, Jingjing; Cox, Dennis D; Lee, Jong Soo; Ren, Peng; Choi, Taeryon

2017-12-01

Functional data are defined as realizations of random functions (mostly smooth functions) varying over a continuum, which are usually collected on discretized grids with measurement errors. In order to accurately smooth noisy functional observations and deal with the issue of high-dimensional observation grids, we propose a novel Bayesian method based on the Bayesian hierarchical model with a Gaussian-Wishart process prior and basis function representations. We first derive an induced model for the basis-function coefficients of the functional data, and then use this model to conduct posterior inference through Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Compared to the standard Bayesian inference that suffers serious computational burden and instability in analyzing high-dimensional functional data, our method greatly improves the computational scalability and stability, while inheriting the advantage of simultaneously smoothing raw observations and estimating the mean-covariance functions in a nonparametric way. In addition, our method can naturally handle functional data observed on random or uncommon grids. Simulation and real studies demonstrate that our method produces similar results to those obtainable by the standard Bayesian inference with low-dimensional common grids, while efficiently smoothing and estimating functional data with random and high-dimensional observation grids when the standard Bayesian inference fails. In conclusion, our method can efficiently smooth and estimate high-dimensional functional data, providing one way to resolve the curse of dimensionality for Bayesian functional data analysis with Gaussian-Wishart processes. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

A Bayesian Model for Highly Accelerated Phase-Contrast MRI

PubMed Central

Rich, Adam; Potter, Lee C.; Jin, Ning; Ash, Joshua; Simonetti, Orlando P.; Ahmad, Rizwan

2015-01-01

Purpose Phase-contrast magnetic resonance imaging (PC-MRI) is a noninvasive tool to assess cardiovascular disease by quantifying blood flow; however, low data acquisition efficiency limits the spatial and temporal resolutions, real-time application, and extensions to 4D flow imaging in clinical settings. We propose a new data processing approach called Reconstructing Velocity Encoded MRI with Approximate message passing aLgorithms (ReVEAL) that accelerates the acquisition by exploiting data structure unique to PC-MRI. Theory and Methods ReVEAL models physical correlations across space, time, and velocity encodings. The proposed Bayesian approach exploits the relationships in both magnitude and phase among velocity encodings. A fast iterative recovery algorithm is introduced based on message passing. For validation, prospectively undersampled data are processed from a pulsatile flow phantom and five healthy volunteers. Results ReVEAL is in good agreement, quantified by peak velocity and stroke volume (SV), with reference data for acceleration rates R ≤ 10. For SV, Pearson r ≥ 0.996 for phantom imaging (n = 24) and r ≥ 0.956 for prospectively accelerated in vivo imaging (n = 10) for R ≤ 10. Conclusion ReVEAL enables accurate quantification of blood flow from highly undersampled data. The technique is extensible to 4D flow imaging, where higher acceleration may be possible due to additional redundancy. PMID:26444911

Bayesian Group Bridge for Bi-level Variable Selection.

PubMed

Mallick, Himel; Yi, Nengjun

2017-06-01

A Bayesian bi-level variable selection method (BAGB: Bayesian Analysis of Group Bridge) is developed for regularized regression and classification. This new development is motivated by grouped data, where generic variables can be divided into multiple groups, with variables in the same group being mechanistically related or statistically correlated. As an alternative to frequentist group variable selection methods, BAGB incorporates structural information among predictors through a group-wise shrinkage prior. Posterior computation proceeds via an efficient MCMC algorithm. In addition to the usual ease-of-interpretation of hierarchical linear models, the Bayesian formulation produces valid standard errors, a feature that is notably absent in the frequentist framework. Empirical evidence of the attractiveness of the method is illustrated by extensive Monte Carlo simulations and real data analysis. Finally, several extensions of this new approach are presented, providing a unified framework for bi-level variable selection in general models with flexible penalties.

Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jesus, J. F.; Valentim, R.; Andrade-Oliveira, F.

2017-09-01

Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3αH0 model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

Bayesian approach to MSD-based analysis of particle motion in live cells.

PubMed

Monnier, Nilah; Guo, Syuan-Ming; Mori, Masashi; He, Jun; Lénárt, Péter; Bathe, Mark

2012-08-08

Quantitative tracking of particle motion using live-cell imaging is a powerful approach to understanding the mechanism of transport of biological molecules, organelles, and cells. However, inferring complex stochastic motion models from single-particle trajectories in an objective manner is nontrivial due to noise from sampling limitations and biological heterogeneity. Here, we present a systematic Bayesian approach to multiple-hypothesis testing of a general set of competing motion models based on particle mean-square displacements that automatically classifies particle motion, properly accounting for sampling limitations and correlated noise while appropriately penalizing model complexity according to Occam's Razor to avoid over-fitting. We test the procedure rigorously using simulated trajectories for which the underlying physical process is known, demonstrating that it chooses the simplest physical model that explains the observed data. Further, we show that computed model probabilities provide a reliability test for the downstream biological interpretation of associated parameter values. We subsequently illustrate the broad utility of the approach by applying it to disparate biological systems including experimental particle trajectories from chromosomes, kinetochores, and membrane receptors undergoing a variety of complex motions. This automated and objective Bayesian framework easily scales to large numbers of particle trajectories, making it ideal for classifying the complex motion of large numbers of single molecules and cells from high-throughput screens, as well as single-cell-, tissue-, and organism-level studies. Copyright © 2012 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Approximate Bayesian computation for forward modeling in cosmology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Akeret, Joël; Refregier, Alexandre; Amara, Adam

Bayesian inference is often used in cosmology and astrophysics to derive constraints on model parameters from observations. This approach relies on the ability to compute the likelihood of the data given a choice of model parameters. In many practical situations, the likelihood function may however be unavailable or intractable due to non-gaussian errors, non-linear measurements processes, or complex data formats such as catalogs and maps. In these cases, the simulation of mock data sets can often be made through forward modeling. We discuss how Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) can be used in these cases to derive an approximation to themore » posterior constraints using simulated data sets. This technique relies on the sampling of the parameter set, a distance metric to quantify the difference between the observation and the simulations and summary statistics to compress the information in the data. We first review the principles of ABC and discuss its implementation using a Population Monte-Carlo (PMC) algorithm and the Mahalanobis distance metric. We test the performance of the implementation using a Gaussian toy model. We then apply the ABC technique to the practical case of the calibration of image simulations for wide field cosmological surveys. We find that the ABC analysis is able to provide reliable parameter constraints for this problem and is therefore a promising technique for other applications in cosmology and astrophysics. Our implementation of the ABC PMC method is made available via a public code release.« less

Alveolar ridge preservation after tooth extraction: a Bayesian Network meta-analysis of grafting materials efficacy on prevention of bone height and width reduction.

PubMed

Iocca, Oreste; Farcomeni, Alessio; Pardiñas Lopez, Simon; Talib, Huzefa S

2017-01-01

To conduct a traditional meta-analysis and a Bayesian Network meta-analysis to synthesize the information coming from randomized controlled trials on different socket grafting materials and combine the resulting indirect evidence in order to make inferences on treatments that have not been compared directly. RCTs were identified for inclusion in the systematic review and subsequent statistical analysis. Bone height and width remodelling were selected as the chosen summary measures for comparison. First, a series of pairwise meta-analyses were performed and overall mean difference (MD) in mm with 95% CI was calculated between grafted versus non-grafted sockets. Then, a Bayesian Network meta-analysis was performed to draw indirect conclusions on which grafting materials can be considered most likely the best compared to the others. From the six included studies, seven comparisons were obtained. Traditional meta-analysis showed statistically significant results in favour of grafting the socket compared to no-graft both for height (MD 1.02, 95% CI 0.44-1.59, p value < 0.001) than for width (MD 1.52 95% CI 1.18-1.86, p value <0.000001) remodelling. Bayesian Network meta-analysis allowed to obtain a rank of intervention efficacy. On the basis of the results of the present analysis, socket grafting seems to be more favourable than unassisted socket healing. Moreover, Bayesian Network meta-analysis indicates that freeze-dried bone graft plus membrane is the most likely effective in the reduction of bone height remodelling. Autologous bone marrow resulted the most likely effective when width remodelling was considered. Studies with larger samples and less risk of bias should be conducted in the future in order to further strengthen the results of this analysis. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Bayesian Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial Comparing Antimetabolite Therapies for Non-Infectious Uveitis.

PubMed

Browne, Erica N; Rathinam, Sivakumar R; Kanakath, Anuradha; Thundikandy, Radhika; Babu, Manohar; Lietman, Thomas M; Acharya, Nisha R

2017-02-01

To conduct a Bayesian analysis of a randomized clinical trial (RCT) for non-infectious uveitis using expert opinion as a subjective prior belief. A RCT was conducted to determine which antimetabolite, methotrexate or mycophenolate mofetil, is more effective as an initial corticosteroid-sparing agent for the treatment of intermediate, posterior, and pan-uveitis. Before the release of trial results, expert opinion on the relative effectiveness of these two medications was collected via online survey. Members of the American Uveitis Society executive committee were invited to provide an estimate for the relative decrease in efficacy with a 95% credible interval (CrI). A prior probability distribution was created from experts' estimates. A Bayesian analysis was performed using the constructed expert prior probability distribution and the trial's primary outcome. A total of 11 of the 12 invited uveitis specialists provided estimates. Eight of 11 experts (73%) believed mycophenolate mofetil is more effective. The group prior belief was that the odds of treatment success for patients taking mycophenolate mofetil were 1.4-fold the odds of those taking methotrexate (95% CrI 0.03-45.0). The odds of treatment success with mycophenolate mofetil compared to methotrexate was 0.4 from the RCT (95% confidence interval 0.1-1.2) and 0.7 (95% CrI 0.2-1.7) from the Bayesian analysis. A Bayesian analysis combining expert belief with the trial's result did not indicate preference for one drug. However, the wide credible interval leaves open the possibility of a substantial treatment effect. This suggests clinical equipoise necessary to allow a larger, more definitive RCT.

Multi-image CAD employing features derived from ipsilateral mammographic views

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Good, Walter F.; Zheng, Bin; Chang, Yuan-Hsiang; Wang, Xiao Hui; Maitz, Glenn S.; Gur, David

1999-05-01

On mammograms, certain kinds of features related to masses (e.g., location, texture, degree of spiculation, and integrated density difference) tend to be relatively invariant, or at last predictable, with respect to breast compression. Thus, ipsilateral pairs of mammograms may contain information not available from analyzing single views separately. To demonstrate the feasibility of incorporating multi-view features into CAD algorithm, `single-image' CAD was applied to each individual image in a set of 60 ipsilateral studies, after which all possible pairs of suspicious regions, consisting of one from each view, were formed. For these 402 pairs we defined and evaluated `multi-view' features such as: (1) relative position of centers of regions; (2) ratio of lengths of region projections parallel to nipple axis lines; (3) ratio of integrated contrast difference; (4) ratio of the sizes of the suspicious regions; and (5) measure of relative complexity of region boundaries. Each pair was identified as either a `true positive/true positive' (T) pair (i.e., two regions which are projections of the same actual mass), or as a falsely associated pair (F). Distributions for each feature were calculated. A Bayesian network was trained and tested to classify pairs of suspicious regions based exclusively on the multi-view features described above. Distributions for all features were significantly difference for T versus F pairs as indicated by likelihood ratios. Performance of the Bayesian network, which was measured by ROC analysis, indicates a significant ability to distinguish between T pairs and F pairs (Az equals 0.82 +/- 0.03), using information that is attributed to the multi-view content. This study is the first demonstration that there is a significant amount of spatial information that can be derived from ipsilateral pairs of mammograms.

The resolved stellar populations around 12 Type IIP supernovae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maund, Justyn R.

2017-08-01

Core-collapse supernovae (SNe) are found in regions associated with recent massive star formation. The stellar population observed around the location of a SN can be used as a probe of the origins of the progenitor star. We apply a Bayesian mixture model to fit isochrones to the massive star population around 12 Type IIP SNe, for which constraints on the progenitors are also available from fortuitous pre-explosion images. Using the high-resolution Hubble Space Telescope Advanced Camera for Surveys and Wide Field Camera 3, we study the massive star population found within 100 pc of each of our target SNe. For most of the SNe in our sample, we find that there are multiple age components in the surrounding stellar populations. In the cases of SNe 2003gd and 2005cs, we find that the progenitor does not come from the youngest stellar population component and, in fact, these relatively low mass progenitors (˜8 M⊙) are found in close proximity to stars as massive as 15 and 50-60 M⊙, respectively. Overall, the field extinction (Galactic and host) derived for these populations is ˜0.3 mag higher than the extinction that was generally applied in previously reported progenitor analyses. We also find evidence, in particular for SN 2004dj, for significant levels of differential extinction. Our analysis for SN 2008bk suggests a significantly lower extinction for the population than the progenitor, but the lifetime of the population and mass determined from pre-explosion images agree. Overall, assuming that the appropriate age component can be suitably identified from the multiple stellar population components present, we find that our Bayesian approach to studying resolved stellar populations can match progenitor masses determined from direct imaging to within ±3 M⊙.

Application of the quantum spin glass theory to image restoration.

PubMed

Inoue, J I

2001-04-01

Quantum fluctuation is introduced into the Markov random-field model for image restoration in the context of a Bayesian approach. We investigate the dependence of the quantum fluctuation on the quality of a black and white image restoration by making use of statistical mechanics. We find that the maximum posterior marginal (MPM) estimate based on the quantum fluctuation gives a fine restoration in comparison with the maximum a posteriori estimate or the thermal fluctuation based MPM estimate.

Fuzzy intelligent quality monitoring model for X-ray image processing.

PubMed

Khalatbari, Azadeh; Jenab, Kouroush

2009-01-01

Today's imaging diagnosis needs to adapt modern techniques of quality engineering to maintain and improve its accuracy and reliability in health care system. One of the main factors that influences diagnostic accuracy of plain film X-ray on detecting pathology is the level of film exposure. If the level of film exposure is not adequate, a normal body structure may be interpretated as pathology and vice versa. This not only influences the patient management but also has an impact on health care cost and patient's quality of life. Therefore, providing an accurate and high quality image is the first step toward an excellent patient management in any health care system. In this paper, we study these techniques and also present a fuzzy intelligent quality monitoring model, which can be used to keep variables from degrading the image quality. The variables derived from chemical activity, cleaning procedures, maintenance, and monitoring may not be sensed, measured, or calculated precisely due to uncertain situations. Therefore, the gamma-level fuzzy Bayesian model for quality monitoring of an image processing is proposed. In order to apply the Bayesian concept, the fuzzy quality characteristics are assumed as fuzzy random variables. Using the fuzzy quality characteristics, the newly developed model calculates the degradation risk for image processing. A numerical example is also presented to demonstrate the application of the model.

A Bayesian model for highly accelerated phase-contrast MRI.

PubMed

Rich, Adam; Potter, Lee C; Jin, Ning; Ash, Joshua; Simonetti, Orlando P; Ahmad, Rizwan

2016-08-01

Phase-contrast magnetic resonance imaging is a noninvasive tool to assess cardiovascular disease by quantifying blood flow; however, low data acquisition efficiency limits the spatial and temporal resolutions, real-time application, and extensions to four-dimensional flow imaging in clinical settings. We propose a new data processing approach called Reconstructing Velocity Encoded MRI with Approximate message passing aLgorithms (ReVEAL) that accelerates the acquisition by exploiting data structure unique to phase-contrast magnetic resonance imaging. The proposed approach models physical correlations across space, time, and velocity encodings. The proposed Bayesian approach exploits the relationships in both magnitude and phase among velocity encodings. A fast iterative recovery algorithm is introduced based on message passing. For validation, prospectively undersampled data are processed from a pulsatile flow phantom and five healthy volunteers. The proposed approach is in good agreement, quantified by peak velocity and stroke volume (SV), with reference data for acceleration rates R≤10. For SV, Pearson r≥0.99 for phantom imaging (n = 24) and r≥0.96 for prospectively accelerated in vivo imaging (n = 10) for R≤10. The proposed approach enables accurate quantification of blood flow from highly undersampled data. The technique is extensible to four-dimensional flow imaging, where higher acceleration may be possible due to additional redundancy. Magn Reson Med 76:689-701, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Bayesian Correlation Analysis for Sequence Count Data

PubMed Central

Lau, Nelson; Perkins, Theodore J.

2016-01-01

Evaluating the similarity of different measured variables is a fundamental task of statistics, and a key part of many bioinformatics algorithms. Here we propose a Bayesian scheme for estimating the correlation between different entities’ measurements based on high-throughput sequencing data. These entities could be different genes or miRNAs whose expression is measured by RNA-seq, different transcription factors or histone marks whose expression is measured by ChIP-seq, or even combinations of different types of entities. Our Bayesian formulation accounts for both measured signal levels and uncertainty in those levels, due to varying sequencing depth in different experiments and to varying absolute levels of individual entities, both of which affect the precision of the measurements. In comparison with a traditional Pearson correlation analysis, we show that our Bayesian correlation analysis retains high correlations when measurement confidence is high, but suppresses correlations when measurement confidence is low—especially for entities with low signal levels. In addition, we consider the influence of priors on the Bayesian correlation estimate. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that naive, uniform priors on entities’ signal levels can lead to highly biased correlation estimates, particularly when different experiments have widely varying sequencing depths. However, we propose two alternative priors that provably mitigate this problem. We also prove that, like traditional Pearson correlation, our Bayesian correlation calculation constitutes a kernel in the machine learning sense, and thus can be used as a similarity measure in any kernel-based machine learning algorithm. We demonstrate our approach on two RNA-seq datasets and one miRNA-seq dataset. PMID:27701449

Online Variational Bayesian Filtering-Based Mobile Target Tracking in Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Zhou, Bingpeng; Chen, Qingchun; Li, Tiffany Jing; Xiao, Pei

2014-01-01

The received signal strength (RSS)-based online tracking for a mobile node in wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is investigated in this paper. Firstly, a multi-layer dynamic Bayesian network (MDBN) is introduced to characterize the target mobility with either directional or undirected movement. In particular, it is proposed to employ the Wishart distribution to approximate the time-varying RSS measurement precision's randomness due to the target movement. It is shown that the proposed MDBN offers a more general analysis model via incorporating the underlying statistical information of both the target movement and observations, which can be utilized to improve the online tracking capability by exploiting the Bayesian statistics. Secondly, based on the MDBN model, a mean-field variational Bayesian filtering (VBF) algorithm is developed to realize the online tracking of a mobile target in the presence of nonlinear observations and time-varying RSS precision, wherein the traditional Bayesian filtering scheme cannot be directly employed. Thirdly, a joint optimization between the real-time velocity and its prior expectation is proposed to enable online velocity tracking in the proposed online tacking scheme. Finally, the associated Bayesian Cramer–Rao Lower Bound (BCRLB) analysis and numerical simulations are conducted. Our analysis unveils that, by exploiting the potential state information via the general MDBN model, the proposed VBF algorithm provides a promising solution to the online tracking of a mobile node in WSNs. In addition, it is shown that the final tracking accuracy linearly scales with its expectation when the RSS measurement precision is time-varying. PMID:25393784

Model-based Bayesian inference for ROC data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Tianhu; Bae, K. Ty

2013-03-01

This paper presents a study of model-based Bayesian inference to Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) data. The model is a simple version of general non-linear regression model. Different from Dorfman model, it uses a probit link function with a covariate variable having zero-one two values to express binormal distributions in a single formula. Model also includes a scale parameter. Bayesian inference is implemented by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method carried out by Bayesian analysis Using Gibbs Sampling (BUGS). Contrast to the classical statistical theory, Bayesian approach considers model parameters as random variables characterized by prior distributions. With substantial amount of simulated samples generated by sampling algorithm, posterior distributions of parameters as well as parameters themselves can be accurately estimated. MCMC-based BUGS adopts Adaptive Rejection Sampling (ARS) protocol which requires the probability density function (pdf) which samples are drawing from be log concave with respect to the targeted parameters. Our study corrects a common misconception and proves that pdf of this regression model is log concave with respect to its scale parameter. Therefore, ARS's requirement is satisfied and a Gaussian prior which is conjugate and possesses many analytic and computational advantages is assigned to the scale parameter. A cohort of 20 simulated data sets and 20 simulations from each data set are used in our study. Output analysis and convergence diagnostics for MCMC method are assessed by CODA package. Models and methods by using continuous Gaussian prior and discrete categorical prior are compared. Intensive simulations and performance measures are given to illustrate our practice in the framework of model-based Bayesian inference using MCMC method.

Systemic antibiotics in the treatment of aggressive periodontitis. A systematic review and a Bayesian Network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Rabelo, Cleverton Correa; Feres, Magda; Gonçalves, Cristiane; Figueiredo, Luciene C; Faveri, Marcelo; Tu, Yu-Kang; Chambrone, Leandro

2015-07-01

The aim of this study was to assess the effect of systemic antibiotic therapy on the treatment of aggressive periodontitis (AgP). This study was conducted and reported in accordance with the PRISMA statement. The MEDLINE, EMBASE and CENTRAL databases were searched up to June 2014 for randomized clinical trials comparing the treatment of subjects with AgP with either scaling and root planing (SRP) alone or associated with systemic antibiotics. Bayesian network meta-analysis was prepared using the Bayesian random-effects hierarchical models and the outcomes reported at 6-month post-treatment. Out of 350 papers identified, 14 studies were eligible. Greater gain in clinical attachment (CA) (mean difference [MD]: 1.08 mm; p < 0.0001) and reduction in probing depth (PD) (MD: 1.05 mm; p < 0.00001) were observed for SRP + metronidazole (Mtz), and for SRP + Mtz + amoxicillin (Amx) (MD: 0.45 mm, MD: 0.53 mm, respectively; p < 0.00001) than SRP alone/placebo. Bayesian network meta-analysis showed additional benefits in CA gain and PD reduction when SRP was associated with systemic antibiotics. SRP plus systemic antibiotics led to an additional clinical effect compared with SRP alone in the treatment of AgP. Of the antibiotic protocols available for inclusion into the Bayesian network meta-analysis, Mtz and Mtz/Amx provided to the most beneficial outcomes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Nonlinear inversion of electrical resistivity imaging using pruning Bayesian neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Fei-Bo; Dai, Qian-Wei; Dong, Li

2016-06-01

Conventional artificial neural networks used to solve electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) inversion problem suffer from overfitting and local minima. To solve these problems, we propose to use a pruning Bayesian neural network (PBNN) nonlinear inversion method and a sample design method based on the K-medoids clustering algorithm. In the sample design method, the training samples of the neural network are designed according to the prior information provided by the K-medoids clustering results; thus, the training process of the neural network is well guided. The proposed PBNN, based on Bayesian regularization, is used to select the hidden layer structure by assessing the effect of each hidden neuron to the inversion results. Then, the hyperparameter α k , which is based on the generalized mean, is chosen to guide the pruning process according to the prior distribution of the training samples under the small-sample condition. The proposed algorithm is more efficient than other common adaptive regularization methods in geophysics. The inversion of synthetic data and field data suggests that the proposed method suppresses the noise in the neural network training stage and enhances the generalization. The inversion results with the proposed method are better than those of the BPNN, RBFNN, and RRBFNN inversion methods as well as the conventional least squares inversion.

Bayesian model reduction and empirical Bayes for group (DCM) studies.

PubMed

Friston, Karl J; Litvak, Vladimir; Oswal, Ashwini; Razi, Adeel; Stephan, Klaas E; van Wijk, Bernadette C M; Ziegler, Gabriel; Zeidman, Peter

2016-03-01

This technical note describes some Bayesian procedures for the analysis of group studies that use nonlinear models at the first (within-subject) level - e.g., dynamic causal models - and linear models at subsequent (between-subject) levels. Its focus is on using Bayesian model reduction to finesse the inversion of multiple models of a single dataset or a single (hierarchical or empirical Bayes) model of multiple datasets. These applications of Bayesian model reduction allow one to consider parametric random effects and make inferences about group effects very efficiently (in a few seconds). We provide the relatively straightforward theoretical background to these procedures and illustrate their application using a worked example. This example uses a simulated mismatch negativity study of schizophrenia. We illustrate the robustness of Bayesian model reduction to violations of the (commonly used) Laplace assumption in dynamic causal modelling and show how its recursive application can facilitate both classical and Bayesian inference about group differences. Finally, we consider the application of these empirical Bayesian procedures to classification and prediction. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

STARBLADE: STar and Artefact Removal with a Bayesian Lightweight Algorithm from Diffuse Emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knollmüller, Jakob; Frank, Philipp; Ensslin, Torsten A.

2018-05-01

STARBLADE (STar and Artefact Removal with a Bayesian Lightweight Algorithm from Diffuse Emission) separates superimposed point-like sources from a diffuse background by imposing physically motivated models as prior knowledge. The algorithm can also be used on noisy and convolved data, though performing a proper reconstruction including a deconvolution prior to the application of the algorithm is advised; the algorithm could also be used within a denoising imaging method. STARBLADE learns the correlation structure of the diffuse emission and takes it into account to determine the occurrence and strength of a superimposed point source.

Combination of dynamic Bayesian network classifiers for the recognition of degraded characters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Likforman-Sulem, Laurence; Sigelle, Marc

2009-01-01

We investigate in this paper the combination of DBN (Dynamic Bayesian Network) classifiers, either independent or coupled, for the recognition of degraded characters. The independent classifiers are a vertical HMM and a horizontal HMM whose observable outputs are the image columns and the image rows respectively. The coupled classifiers, presented in a previous study, associate the vertical and horizontal observation streams into single DBNs. The scores of the independent and coupled classifiers are then combined linearly at the decision level. We compare the different classifiers -independent, coupled or linearly combined- on two tasks: the recognition of artificially degraded handwritten digits and the recognition of real degraded old printed characters. Our results show that coupled DBNs perform better on degraded characters than the linear combination of independent HMM scores. Our results also show that the best classifier is obtained by linearly combining the scores of the best coupled DBN and the best independent HMM.

Determining open cluster membership. A Bayesian framework for quantitative member classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stott, Jonathan J.

2018-01-01

Aims: My goal is to develop a quantitative algorithm for assessing open cluster membership probabilities. The algorithm is designed to work with single-epoch observations. In its simplest form, only one set of program images and one set of reference images are required. Methods: The algorithm is based on a two-stage joint astrometric and photometric assessment of cluster membership probabilities. The probabilities were computed within a Bayesian framework using any available prior information. Where possible, the algorithm emphasizes simplicity over mathematical sophistication. Results: The algorithm was implemented and tested against three observational fields using published survey data. M 67 and NGC 654 were selected as cluster examples while a third, cluster-free, field was used for the final test data set. The algorithm shows good quantitative agreement with the existing surveys and has a false-positive rate significantly lower than the astrometric or photometric methods used individually.

Maritime Transportation Risk Assessment of Tianjin Port with Bayesian Belief Networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Jinfen; Teixeira, Ângelo P; Guedes Soares, C; Yan, Xinping; Liu, Kezhong

2016-06-01

This article develops a Bayesian belief network model for the prediction of accident consequences in the Tianjin port. The study starts with a statistical analysis of historical accident data of six years from 2008 to 2013. Then a Bayesian belief network is constructed to express the dependencies between the indicator variables and accident consequences. The statistics and expert knowledge are synthesized in the Bayesian belief network model to obtain the probability distribution of the consequences. By a sensitivity analysis, several indicator variables that have influence on the consequences are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequences are most sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred, followed by time of day and ship length. The results also reflect that the navigational risk of the Tianjin port is at the acceptable level, despite that there is more room of improvement. These results can be used by the Maritime Safety Administration to take effective measures to enhance maritime safety in the Tianjin port. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

2016-08-01

Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

The NIFTy way of Bayesian signal inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selig, Marco

2014-12-01

We introduce NIFTy, "Numerical Information Field Theory", a software package for the development of Bayesian signal inference algorithms that operate independently from any underlying spatial grid and its resolution. A large number of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods for 1D signal reconstruction, 2D imaging, as well as 3D tomography, appear formally similar, but one often finds individualized implementations that are neither flexible nor easily transferable. Signal inference in the framework of NIFTy can be done in an abstract way, such that algorithms, prototyped in 1D, can be applied to real world problems in higher-dimensional settings. NIFTy as a versatile library is applicable and already has been applied in 1D, 2D, 3D and spherical settings. A recent application is the D3PO algorithm targeting the non-trivial task of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations in high energy astronomy.

Data analysis in emission tomography using emission-count posteriors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sitek, Arkadiusz

2012-11-01

A novel approach to the analysis of emission tomography data using the posterior probability of the number of emissions per voxel (emission count) conditioned on acquired tomographic data is explored. The posterior is derived from the prior and the Poisson likelihood of the emission-count data by marginalizing voxel activities. Based on emission-count posteriors, examples of Bayesian analysis including estimation and classification tasks in emission tomography are provided. The application of the method to computer simulations of 2D tomography is demonstrated. In particular, the minimum-mean-square-error point estimator of the emission count is demonstrated. The process of finding this estimator can be considered as a tomographic image reconstruction technique since the estimates of the number of emissions per voxel divided by voxel sensitivities and acquisition time are the estimates of the voxel activities. As an example of a classification task, a hypothesis stating that some region of interest (ROI) emitted at least or at most r-times the number of events in some other ROI is tested. The ROIs are specified by the user. The analysis described in this work provides new quantitative statistical measures that can be used in decision making in diagnostic imaging using emission tomography.

Embedding the results of focussed Bayesian fusion into a global context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sander, Jennifer; Heizmann, Michael

2014-05-01

Bayesian statistics offers a well-founded and powerful fusion methodology also for the fusion of heterogeneous information sources. However, except in special cases, the needed posterior distribution is not analytically derivable. As consequence, Bayesian fusion may cause unacceptably high computational and storage costs in practice. Local Bayesian fusion approaches aim at reducing the complexity of the Bayesian fusion methodology significantly. This is done by concentrating the actual Bayesian fusion on the potentially most task relevant parts of the domain of the Properties of Interest. Our research on these approaches is motivated by an analogy to criminal investigations where criminalists pursue clues also only locally. This publication follows previous publications on a special local Bayesian fusion technique called focussed Bayesian fusion. Here, the actual calculation of the posterior distribution gets completely restricted to a suitably chosen local context. By this, the global posterior distribution is not completely determined. Strategies for using the results of a focussed Bayesian analysis appropriately are needed. In this publication, we primarily contrast different ways of embedding the results of focussed Bayesian fusion explicitly into a global context. To obtain a unique global posterior distribution, we analyze the application of the Maximum Entropy Principle that has been shown to be successfully applicable in metrology and in different other areas. To address the special need for making further decisions subsequently to the actual fusion task, we further analyze criteria for decision making under partial information.

Phylogeny of sipunculan worms: A combined analysis of four gene regions and morphology.

PubMed

Schulze, Anja; Cutler, Edward B; Giribet, Gonzalo

2007-01-01

The intra-phyletic relationships of sipunculan worms were analyzed based on DNA sequence data from four gene regions and 58 morphological characters. Initially we analyzed the data under direct optimization using parsimony as optimality criterion. An implied alignment resulting from the direct optimization analysis was subsequently utilized to perform a Bayesian analysis with mixed models for the different data partitions. For this we applied a doublet model for the stem regions of the 18S rRNA. Both analyses support monophyly of Sipuncula and most of the same clades within the phylum. The analyses differ with respect to the relationships among the major groups but whereas the deep nodes in the direct optimization analysis generally show low jackknife support, they are supported by 100% posterior probability in the Bayesian analysis. Direct optimization has been useful for handling sequences of unequal length and generating conservative phylogenetic hypotheses whereas the Bayesian analysis under mixed models provided high resolution in the basal nodes of the tree.

Blind image deconvolution using the Fields of Experts prior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Wende; Feng, Huajun; Xu, Zhihai; Li, Qi

2012-11-01

In this paper, we present a method for single image blind deconvolution. To improve its ill-posedness, we formulate the problem under Bayesian probabilistic framework and use a prior named Fields of Experts (FoE) which is learnt from natural images to regularize the latent image. Furthermore, due to the sparse distribution of the point spread function (PSF), we adopt a Student-t prior to regularize it. An improved alternating minimization (AM) approach is proposed to solve the resulted optimization problem. Experiments on both synthetic and real world blurred images show that the proposed method can achieve results of high quality.

Bayesian parameter estimation in spectral quantitative photoacoustic tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulkkinen, Aki; Cox, Ben T.; Arridge, Simon R.; Kaipio, Jari P.; Tarvainen, Tanja

2016-03-01

Photoacoustic tomography (PAT) is an imaging technique combining strong contrast of optical imaging to high spatial resolution of ultrasound imaging. These strengths are achieved via photoacoustic effect, where a spatial absorption of light pulse is converted into a measurable propagating ultrasound wave. The method is seen as a potential tool for small animal imaging, pre-clinical investigations, study of blood vessels and vasculature, as well as for cancer imaging. The goal in PAT is to form an image of the absorbed optical energy density field via acoustic inverse problem approaches from the measured ultrasound data. Quantitative PAT (QPAT) proceeds from these images and forms quantitative estimates of the optical properties of the target. This optical inverse problem of QPAT is illposed. To alleviate the issue, spectral QPAT (SQPAT) utilizes PAT data formed at multiple optical wavelengths simultaneously with optical parameter models of tissue to form quantitative estimates of the parameters of interest. In this work, the inverse problem of SQPAT is investigated. Light propagation is modelled using the diffusion equation. Optical absorption is described with chromophore concentration weighted sum of known chromophore absorption spectra. Scattering is described by Mie scattering theory with an exponential power law. In the inverse problem, the spatially varying unknown parameters of interest are the chromophore concentrations, the Mie scattering parameters (power law factor and the exponent), and Gruneisen parameter. The inverse problem is approached with a Bayesian method. It is numerically demonstrated, that estimation of all parameters of interest is possible with the approach.

Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

2015-01-01

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

Semiparametric Thurstonian Models for Recurrent Choices: A Bayesian Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ansari, Asim; Iyengar, Raghuram

2006-01-01

We develop semiparametric Bayesian Thurstonian models for analyzing repeated choice decisions involving multinomial, multivariate binary or multivariate ordinal data. Our modeling framework has multiple components that together yield considerable flexibility in modeling preference utilities, cross-sectional heterogeneity and parameter-driven…

North American Crust and Upper Mantle Structure Imaged Using an Adaptive Bayesian Inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eilon, Z.; Fischer, K. M.; Dalton, C. A.

2017-12-01

We present a methodology for imaging upper mantle structure using a Bayesian approach that incorporates a novel combination of seismic data types and an adaptive parameterization based on piecewise discontinuous splines. Our inversion algorithm lays the groundwork for improved seismic velocity models of the lithosphere and asthenosphere by harnessing increased computing power alongside sophisticated data analysis, with the flexibility to include multiple datatypes with complementary resolution. Our new method has been designed to simultaneously fit P-s and S-p converted phases and Rayleigh wave phase velocities measured from ambient noise (periods 6-40 s) and earthquake sources (periods 30-170s). Careful processing of the body wave data isolates the signals from velocity gradients between the mid-crust and 250 km depth. We jointly invert the body and surface wave data to obtain detailed 1-D velocity models that include robustly imaged mantle discontinuities. Synthetic tests demonstrate that S-p phases are particularly important for resolving mantle structure, while surface waves capture absolute velocities with resolution better than 0.1 km/s. By treating data noise as an unknown parameter, and by generating posterior parameter distributions, model trade offs and uncertainties are fully captured by the inversion. We apply the method to stations across the northwest and north-central United States, finding that the imaged structure improves upon existing models by sharpening the vertical resolution of absolute velocity profiles and offering robust uncertainty estimates. In the tectonically active northwestern US, a strong velocity drop immediately beneath the Moho connotes thin (<70 km) lithosphere and a sharp lithosphere-asthenosphere transition; the asthenospheric velocity profile here matches observations at mid-ocean ridges. Within the Wyoming and Superior cratons, our models reveal mid-lithospheric velocity gradients indicative of thermochemical cratonic layering, but the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary is relatively gradual. This flexible method holds promise for increasingly detailed understanding of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system.

A New Feature-Enhanced Speckle Reduction Method Based on Multiscale Analysis for Ultrasound B-Mode Imaging.

PubMed

Kang, Jinbum; Lee, Jae Young; Yoo, Yangmo

2016-06-01

Effective speckle reduction in ultrasound B-mode imaging is important for enhancing the image quality and improving the accuracy in image analysis and interpretation. In this paper, a new feature-enhanced speckle reduction (FESR) method based on multiscale analysis and feature enhancement filtering is proposed for ultrasound B-mode imaging. In FESR, clinical features (e.g., boundaries and borders of lesions) are selectively emphasized by edge, coherence, and contrast enhancement filtering from fine to coarse scales while simultaneously suppressing speckle development via robust diffusion filtering. In the simulation study, the proposed FESR method showed statistically significant improvements in edge preservation, mean structure similarity, speckle signal-to-noise ratio, and contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) compared with other speckle reduction methods, e.g., oriented speckle reducing anisotropic diffusion (OSRAD), nonlinear multiscale wavelet diffusion (NMWD), the Laplacian pyramid-based nonlinear diffusion and shock filter (LPNDSF), and the Bayesian nonlocal means filter (OBNLM). Similarly, the FESR method outperformed the OSRAD, NMWD, LPNDSF, and OBNLM methods in terms of CNR, i.e., 10.70 ± 0.06 versus 9.00 ± 0.06, 9.78 ± 0.06, 8.67 ± 0.04, and 9.22 ± 0.06 in the phantom study, respectively. Reconstructed B-mode images that were developed using the five speckle reduction methods were reviewed by three radiologists for evaluation based on each radiologist's diagnostic preferences. All three radiologists showed a significant preference for the abdominal liver images obtained using the FESR methods in terms of conspicuity, margin sharpness, artificiality, and contrast, p<0.0001. For the kidney and thyroid images, the FESR method showed similar improvement over other methods. However, the FESR method did not show statistically significant improvement compared with the OBNLM method in margin sharpness for the kidney and thyroid images. These results demonstrate that the proposed FESR method can improve the image quality of ultrasound B-mode imaging by enhancing the visualization of lesion features while effectively suppressing speckle noise.

Understanding bone responses in B-mode ultrasound images and automatic bone surface extraction using a Bayesian probabilistic framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, Ameet K.; Taylor, Russell H.

2004-04-01

The registration of preoperative CT to intra-operative reality systems is a crucial step in Computer Assisted Orthopedic Surgery (CAOS). The intra-operative sensors include 3D digitizers, fiducials, X-rays and Ultrasound (US). Although US has many advantages over others, tracked US for Orthopedic Surgery has been researched by only a few authors. An important factor limiting the accuracy of tracked US to CT registration (1-3mm) has been the difficulty in determining the exact location of the bone surfaces in the US images (the response could range from 2-4mm). Thus it is crucial to localize the bone surface accurately from these images. Moreover conventional US imaging systems are known to have certain inherent inaccuracies, mainly due to the fact that the imaging model is assumed planar. This creates the need to develop a bone segmentation framework that can couple information from various post-processed spatially separated US images (of the bone) to enhance the localization of the bone surface. In this paper we discuss the various reasons that cause inherent uncertainties in the bone surface localization (in B-mode US images) and suggest methods to account for these. We also develop a method for automatic bone surface detection. To do so, we account objectively for the high-level understanding of the various bone surface features visible in typical US images. A combination of these features would finally decide the surface position. We use a Bayesian probabilistic framework, which strikes a fair balance between high level understanding from features in an image and the low level number crunching of standard image processing techniques. It also provides us with a mathematical approach that facilitates combining multiple images to augment the bone surface estimate.

Deep Learning Neural Networks and Bayesian Neural Networks in Data Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chernoded, Andrey; Dudko, Lev; Myagkov, Igor; Volkov, Petr

2017-10-01

Most of the modern analyses in high energy physics use signal-versus-background classification techniques of machine learning methods and neural networks in particular. Deep learning neural network is the most promising modern technique to separate signal and background and now days can be widely and successfully implemented as a part of physical analysis. In this article we compare Deep learning and Bayesian neural networks application as a classifiers in an instance of top quark analysis.

A Bayesian test for Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium of biallelic X-chromosomal markers

PubMed Central

Puig, X; Ginebra, J; Graffelman, J

2017-01-01

The X chromosome is a relatively large chromosome, harboring a lot of genetic information. Much of the statistical analysis of X-chromosomal information is complicated by the fact that males only have one copy. Recently, frequentist statistical tests for Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium have been proposed specifically for dealing with markers on the X chromosome. Bayesian test procedures for Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium for the autosomes have been described, but Bayesian work on the X chromosome in this context is lacking. This paper gives the first Bayesian approach for testing Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium with biallelic markers at the X chromosome. Marginal and joint posterior distributions for the inbreeding coefficient in females and the male to female allele frequency ratio are computed, and used for statistical inference. The paper gives a detailed account of the proposed Bayesian test, and illustrates it with data from the 1000 Genomes project. In that implementation, a novel approach to tackle multiple testing from a Bayesian perspective through posterior predictive checks is used. PMID:28900292

Bayesian analysis of multimodal data and brain imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assadi, Amir H.; Eghbalnia, Hamid; Backonja, Miroslav; Wakai, Ronald T.; Rutecki, Paul; Haughton, Victor

2000-06-01

It is often the case that information about a process can be obtained using a variety of methods. Each method is employed because of specific advantages over the competing alternatives. An example in medical neuro-imaging is the choice between fMRI and MEG modes where fMRI can provide high spatial resolution in comparison to the superior temporal resolution of MEG. The combination of data from varying modes provides the opportunity to infer results that may not be possible by means of any one mode alone. We discuss a Bayesian and learning theoretic framework for enhanced feature extraction that is particularly suited to multi-modal investigations of massive data sets from multiple experiments. In the following Bayesian approach, acquired knowledge (information) regarding various aspects of the process are all directly incorporated into the formulation. This information can come from a variety of sources. In our case, it represents statistical information obtained from other modes of data collection. The information is used to train a learning machine to estimate a probability distribution, which is used in turn by a second machine as a prior, in order to produce a more refined estimation of the distribution of events. The computational demand of the algorithm is handled by proposing a distributed parallel implementation on a cluster of workstations that can be scaled to address real-time needs if required. We provide a simulation of these methods on a set of synthetically generated MEG and EEG data. We show how spatial and temporal resolutions improve by using prior distributions. The method on fMRI signals permits one to construct the probability distribution of the non-linear hemodynamics of the human brain (real data). These computational results are in agreement with biologically based measurements of other labs, as reported to us by researchers from UK. We also provide preliminary analysis involving multi-electrode cortical recording that accompanies behavioral data in pain experiments on freely moving mice subjected to moderate heat delivered by an electric bulb. Summary of new or breakthrough ideas: (1) A new method to estimate probability distribution for measurement of nonlinear hemodynamics of brain from a multi- modal neuronal data. This is the first time that such an idea is tried, to our knowledge. (2) Breakthrough in improvement of time resolution of fMRI signals using (1) above.

Uncertainty Analysis and Parameter Estimation For Nearshore Hydrodynamic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardani, S.; Kaihatu, J. M.

2012-12-01

Numerical models represent deterministic approaches used for the relevant physical processes in the nearshore. Complexity of the physics of the model and uncertainty involved in the model inputs compel us to apply a stochastic approach to analyze the robustness of the model. The Bayesian inverse problem is one powerful way to estimate the important input model parameters (determined by apriori sensitivity analysis) and can be used for uncertainty analysis of the outputs. Bayesian techniques can be used to find the range of most probable parameters based on the probability of the observed data and the residual errors. In this study, the effect of input data involving lateral (Neumann) boundary conditions, bathymetry and off-shore wave conditions on nearshore numerical models are considered. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to a deterministic numerical model (the Delft3D modeling suite for coupled waves and flow) for the resulting uncertainty analysis of the outputs (wave height, flow velocity, mean sea level and etc.). Uncertainty analysis of outputs is performed by random sampling from the input probability distribution functions and running the model as required until convergence to the consistent results is achieved. The case study used in this analysis is the Duck94 experiment, which was conducted at the U.S. Army Field Research Facility at Duck, North Carolina, USA in the fall of 1994. The joint probability of model parameters relevant for the Duck94 experiments will be found using the Bayesian approach. We will further show that, by using Bayesian techniques to estimate the optimized model parameters as inputs and applying them for uncertainty analysis, we can obtain more consistent results than using the prior information for input data which means that the variation of the uncertain parameter will be decreased and the probability of the observed data will improve as well. Keywords: Monte Carlo Simulation, Delft3D, uncertainty analysis, Bayesian techniques, MCMC

Using Bayesian neural networks to classify forest scenes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vehtari, Aki; Heikkonen, Jukka; Lampinen, Jouko; Juujarvi, Jouni

1998-10-01

We present results that compare the performance of Bayesian learning methods for neural networks on the task of classifying forest scenes into trees and background. Classification task is demanding due to the texture richness of the trees, occlusions of the forest scene objects and diverse lighting conditions under operation. This makes it difficult to determine which are optimal image features for the classification. A natural way to proceed is to extract many different types of potentially suitable features, and to evaluate their usefulness in later processing stages. One approach to cope with large number of features is to use Bayesian methods to control the model complexity. Bayesian learning uses a prior on model parameters, combines this with evidence from a training data, and the integrates over the resulting posterior to make predictions. With this method, we can use large networks and many features without fear of overfitting. For this classification task we compare two Bayesian learning methods for multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural networks: (1) The evidence framework of MacKay uses a Gaussian approximation to the posterior weight distribution and maximizes with respect to hyperparameters. (2) In a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method due to Neal, the posterior distribution of the network parameters is numerically integrated using the MCMC method. As baseline classifiers for comparison we use (3) MLP early stop committee, (4) K-nearest-neighbor and (5) Classification And Regression Tree.

Automated Bayesian model development for frequency detection in biological time series.

PubMed

Granqvist, Emma; Oldroyd, Giles E D; Morris, Richard J

2011-06-24

A first step in building a mathematical model of a biological system is often the analysis of the temporal behaviour of key quantities. Mathematical relationships between the time and frequency domain, such as Fourier Transforms and wavelets, are commonly used to extract information about the underlying signal from a given time series. This one-to-one mapping from time points to frequencies inherently assumes that both domains contain the complete knowledge of the system. However, for truncated, noisy time series with background trends this unique mapping breaks down and the question reduces to an inference problem of identifying the most probable frequencies. In this paper we build on the method of Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and demonstrate its advantages over conventional methods by applying it to a number of test cases, including two types of biological time series. Firstly, oscillations of calcium in plant root cells in response to microbial symbionts are non-stationary and noisy, posing challenges to data analysis. Secondly, circadian rhythms in gene expression measured over only two cycles highlights the problem of time series with limited length. The results show that the Bayesian frequency detection approach can provide useful results in specific areas where Fourier analysis can be uninformative or misleading. We demonstrate further benefits of the Bayesian approach for time series analysis, such as direct comparison of different hypotheses, inherent estimation of noise levels and parameter precision, and a flexible framework for modelling the data without pre-processing. Modelling in systems biology often builds on the study of time-dependent phenomena. Fourier Transforms are a convenient tool for analysing the frequency domain of time series. However, there are well-known limitations of this method, such as the introduction of spurious frequencies when handling short and noisy time series, and the requirement for uniformly sampled data. Biological time series often deviate significantly from the requirements of optimality for Fourier transformation. In this paper we present an alternative approach based on Bayesian inference. We show the value of placing spectral analysis in the framework of Bayesian inference and demonstrate how model comparison can automate this procedure.

Automated Bayesian model development for frequency detection in biological time series

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background A first step in building a mathematical model of a biological system is often the analysis of the temporal behaviour of key quantities. Mathematical relationships between the time and frequency domain, such as Fourier Transforms and wavelets, are commonly used to extract information about the underlying signal from a given time series. This one-to-one mapping from time points to frequencies inherently assumes that both domains contain the complete knowledge of the system. However, for truncated, noisy time series with background trends this unique mapping breaks down and the question reduces to an inference problem of identifying the most probable frequencies. Results In this paper we build on the method of Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and demonstrate its advantages over conventional methods by applying it to a number of test cases, including two types of biological time series. Firstly, oscillations of calcium in plant root cells in response to microbial symbionts are non-stationary and noisy, posing challenges to data analysis. Secondly, circadian rhythms in gene expression measured over only two cycles highlights the problem of time series with limited length. The results show that the Bayesian frequency detection approach can provide useful results in specific areas where Fourier analysis can be uninformative or misleading. We demonstrate further benefits of the Bayesian approach for time series analysis, such as direct comparison of different hypotheses, inherent estimation of noise levels and parameter precision, and a flexible framework for modelling the data without pre-processing. Conclusions Modelling in systems biology often builds on the study of time-dependent phenomena. Fourier Transforms are a convenient tool for analysing the frequency domain of time series. However, there are well-known limitations of this method, such as the introduction of spurious frequencies when handling short and noisy time series, and the requirement for uniformly sampled data. Biological time series often deviate significantly from the requirements of optimality for Fourier transformation. In this paper we present an alternative approach based on Bayesian inference. We show the value of placing spectral analysis in the framework of Bayesian inference and demonstrate how model comparison can automate this procedure. PMID:21702910

Probabilistic Assessment of Planet Habitability and Biosignatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bixel, A.; Apai, D.

2017-11-01

We have computed probabilistic constraints on the bulk properties of Proxima Cen b informed by priors from Kepler and RV follow-up. We will extend this approach into a Bayesian framework to assess the habitability of directly imaged planets.

Integrating dynamic and distributed compressive sensing techniques to enhance image quality of the compressive line sensing system for unmanned aerial vehicles application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouyang, Bing; Hou, Weilin; Caimi, Frank M.; Dalgleish, Fraser R.; Vuorenkoski, Anni K.; Gong, Cuiling

2017-07-01

The compressive line sensing imaging system adopts distributed compressive sensing (CS) to acquire data and reconstruct images. Dynamic CS uses Bayesian inference to capture the correlated nature of the adjacent lines. An image reconstruction technique that incorporates dynamic CS in the distributed CS framework was developed to improve the quality of reconstructed images. The effectiveness of the technique was validated using experimental data acquired in an underwater imaging test facility. Results that demonstrate contrast and resolution improvements will be presented. The improved efficiency is desirable for unmanned aerial vehicles conducting long-duration missions.

Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting.

PubMed

Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen

2015-12-28

We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.

Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen

2015-12-01

We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.

A Bayesian Approach to Period Searching in Solar Coronal Loops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherrer, Bryan; McKenzie, David

2017-03-01

We have applied a Bayesian generalized Lomb-Scargle period searching algorithm to movies of coronal loop images obtained with the Hinode X-ray Telescope (XRT) to search for evidence of periodicities that would indicate resonant heating of the loops. The algorithm makes as its only assumption that there is a single sinusoidal signal within each light curve of the data. Both the amplitudes and noise are taken as free parameters. It is argued that this procedure should be used alongside Fourier and wavelet analyses to more accurately extract periodic intensity modulations in coronal loops. The data analyzed are from XRT Observation Program #129C: “MHD Wave Heating (Thin Filters),” which occurred during 2006 November 13 and focused on active region 10293, which included coronal loops. The first data set spans approximately 10 min with an average cadence of 2 s, 2″ per pixel resolution, and used the Al-mesh analysis filter. The second data set spans approximately 4 min with a 3 s average cadence, 1″ per pixel resolution, and used the Al-poly analysis filter. The final data set spans approximately 22 min at a 6 s average cadence, and used the Al-poly analysis filter. In total, 55 periods of sinusoidal coronal loop oscillations between 5.5 and 59.6 s are discussed, supporting proposals in the literature that resonant absorption of magnetic waves is a viable mechanism for depositing energy in the corona.

A Bayesian Approach to Period Searching in Solar Coronal Loops

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scherrer, Bryan; McKenzie, David

2017-03-01

We have applied a Bayesian generalized Lomb–Scargle period searching algorithm to movies of coronal loop images obtained with the Hinode X-ray Telescope (XRT) to search for evidence of periodicities that would indicate resonant heating of the loops. The algorithm makes as its only assumption that there is a single sinusoidal signal within each light curve of the data. Both the amplitudes and noise are taken as free parameters. It is argued that this procedure should be used alongside Fourier and wavelet analyses to more accurately extract periodic intensity modulations in coronal loops. The data analyzed are from XRT Observation Programmore » 129C: “MHD Wave Heating (Thin Filters),” which occurred during 2006 November 13 and focused on active region 10293, which included coronal loops. The first data set spans approximately 10 min with an average cadence of 2 s, 2″ per pixel resolution, and used the Al-mesh analysis filter. The second data set spans approximately 4 min with a 3 s average cadence, 1″ per pixel resolution, and used the Al-poly analysis filter. The final data set spans approximately 22 min at a 6 s average cadence, and used the Al-poly analysis filter. In total, 55 periods of sinusoidal coronal loop oscillations between 5.5 and 59.6 s are discussed, supporting proposals in the literature that resonant absorption of magnetic waves is a viable mechanism for depositing energy in the corona.« less

Making Sense of a Negative Clinical Trial Result: A Bayesian Analysis of a Clinical Trial of Lorazepam and Diazepam for Pediatric Status Epilepticus.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Daniel B; Chamberlain, James M

2017-01-01

We demonstrate the application of a Bayesian approach to a recent negative clinical trial result. A Bayesian analysis of such a trial can provide a more useful interpretation of results and can incorporate previous evidence. This was a secondary analysis of the efficacy and safety results of the Pediatric Seizure Study, a randomized clinical trial of lorazepam versus diazepam for pediatric status epilepticus. We included the published results from the only prospective pediatric study of status in a Bayesian hierarchic model, and we performed sensitivity analyses on the amount of pooling between studies. We evaluated 3 summary analyses for the results: superiority, noninferiority (margin <-10%), and practical equivalence (within ±10%). Consistent with the original study's classic analysis of study results, we did not demonstrate superiority of lorazepam over diazepam. There is a 95% probability that the true efficacy of lorazepam is in the range of 66% to 80%. For both the efficacy and safety outcomes, there was greater than 95% probability that lorazepam is noninferior to diazepam, and there was greater than 90% probability that the 2 medications are practically equivalent. The results were largely driven by the current study because of the sample sizes of our study (n=273) and the previous pediatric study (n=61). Because Bayesian analysis estimates the probability of one or more hypotheses, such an approach can provide more useful information about the meaning of the results of a negative trial outcome. In the case of pediatric status epilepticus, it is highly likely that lorazepam is noninferior and practically equivalent to diazepam. Copyright © 2016 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial Comparing Antimetabolite Therapies for Non-Infectious Uveitis

PubMed Central

Browne, Erica N; Rathinam, Sivakumar R; Kanakath, Anuradha; Thundikandy, Radhika; Babu, Manohar; Lietman, Thomas M; Acharya, Nisha R

2017-01-01

Purpose To conduct a Bayesian analysis of a randomized clinical trial (RCT) for non-infectious uveitis using expert opinion as a subjective prior belief. Methods A RCT was conducted to determine which antimetabolite, methotrexate or mycophenolate mofetil, is more effective as an initial corticosteroid-sparing agent for the treatment of intermediate, posterior, and pan- uveitis. Before the release of trial results, expert opinion on the relative effectiveness of these two medications was collected via online survey. Members of the American Uveitis Society executive committee were invited to provide an estimate for the relative decrease in efficacy with a 95% credible interval (CrI). A prior probability distribution was created from experts’ estimates. A Bayesian analysis was performed using the constructed expert prior probability distribution and the trial’s primary outcome. Results 11 of 12 invited uveitis specialists provided estimates. Eight of 11 experts (73%) believed mycophenolate mofetil is more effective. The group prior belief was that the odds of treatment success for patients taking mycophenolate mofetil were 1.4-fold the odds of those taking methotrexate (95% CrI 0.03 – 45.0). The odds of treatment success with mycophenolate mofetil compared to methotrexate was 0.4 from the RCT (95% confidence interval 0.1–1.2) and 0.7 (95% CrI 0.2–1.7) from the Bayesian analysis. Conclusions A Bayesian analysis combining expert belief with the trial’s result did not indicate preference for one drug. However, the wide credible interval leaves open the possibility of a substantial treatment effect. This suggests clinical equipoise necessary to allow a larger, more definitive RCT. PMID:27982726

Assessment of parametric uncertainty for groundwater reactive transport modeling,

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shi, Xiaoqing; Ye, Ming; Curtis, Gary P.; Miller, Geoffery L.; Meyer, Philip D.; Kohler, Matthias; Yabusaki, Steve; Wu, Jichun

2014-01-01

The validity of using Gaussian assumptions for model residuals in uncertainty quantification of a groundwater reactive transport model was evaluated in this study. Least squares regression methods explicitly assume Gaussian residuals, and the assumption leads to Gaussian likelihood functions, model parameters, and model predictions. While the Bayesian methods do not explicitly require the Gaussian assumption, Gaussian residuals are widely used. This paper shows that the residuals of the reactive transport model are non-Gaussian, heteroscedastic, and correlated in time; characterizing them requires using a generalized likelihood function such as the formal generalized likelihood function developed by Schoups and Vrugt (2010). For the surface complexation model considered in this study for simulating uranium reactive transport in groundwater, parametric uncertainty is quantified using the least squares regression methods and Bayesian methods with both Gaussian and formal generalized likelihood functions. While the least squares methods and Bayesian methods with Gaussian likelihood function produce similar Gaussian parameter distributions, the parameter distributions of Bayesian uncertainty quantification using the formal generalized likelihood function are non-Gaussian. In addition, predictive performance of formal generalized likelihood function is superior to that of least squares regression and Bayesian methods with Gaussian likelihood function. The Bayesian uncertainty quantification is conducted using the differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM(zs)) algorithm; as a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, it is a robust tool for quantifying uncertainty in groundwater reactive transport models. For the surface complexation model, the regression-based local sensitivity analysis and Morris- and DREAM(ZS)-based global sensitivity analysis yield almost identical ranking of parameter importance. The uncertainty analysis may help select appropriate likelihood functions, improve model calibration, and reduce predictive uncertainty in other groundwater reactive transport and environmental modeling.

Developing a new Bayesian Risk Index for risk evaluation of soil contamination.

PubMed

Albuquerque, M T D; Gerassis, S; Sierra, C; Taboada, J; Martín, J E; Antunes, I M H R; Gallego, J R

2017-12-15

Industrial and agricultural activities heavily constrain soil quality. Potentially Toxic Elements (PTEs) are a threat to public health and the environment alike. In this regard, the identification of areas that require remediation is crucial. In the herein research a geochemical dataset (230 samples) comprising 14 elements (Cu, Pb, Zn, Ag, Ni, Mn, Fe, As, Cd, V, Cr, Ti, Al and S) was gathered throughout eight different zones distinguished by their main activity, namely, recreational, agriculture/livestock and heavy industry in the Avilés Estuary (North of Spain). Then a stratified systematic sampling method was used at short, medium, and long distances from each zone to obtain a representative picture of the total variability of the selected attributes. The information was then combined in four risk classes (Low, Moderate, High, Remediation) following reference values from several sediment quality guidelines (SQGs). A Bayesian analysis, inferred for each zone, allowed the characterization of PTEs correlations, the unsupervised learning network technique proving to be the best fit. Based on the Bayesian network structure obtained, Pb, As and Mn were selected as key contamination parameters. For these 3 elements, the conditional probability obtained was allocated to each observed point, and a simple, direct index (Bayesian Risk Index-BRI) was constructed as a linear rating of the pre-defined risk classes weighted by the previously obtained probability. Finally, the BRI underwent geostatistical modeling. One hundred Sequential Gaussian Simulations (SGS) were computed. The Mean Image and the Standard Deviation maps were obtained, allowing the definition of High/Low risk clusters (Local G clustering) and the computation of spatial uncertainty. High-risk clusters are mainly distributed within the area with the highest altitude (agriculture/livestock) showing an associated low spatial uncertainty, clearly indicating the need for remediation. Atmospheric emissions, mainly derived from the metallurgical industry, contribute to soil contamination by PTEs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian Multinomial Probit MODEL FOR THE ANALYSIS OF PANEL CHOICE DATA.

PubMed

Fong, Duncan K H; Kim, Sunghoon; Chen, Zhe; DeSarbo, Wayne S

2016-03-01

A new Bayesian multinomial probit model is proposed for the analysis of panel choice data. Using a parameter expansion technique, we are able to devise a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to compute our Bayesian estimates efficiently. We also show that the proposed procedure enables the estimation of individual level coefficients for the single-period multinomial probit model even when the available prior information is vague. We apply our new procedure to consumer purchase data and reanalyze a well-known scanner panel dataset that reveals new substantive insights. In addition, we delineate a number of advantageous features of our proposed procedure over several benchmark models. Finally, through a simulation analysis employing a fractional factorial design, we demonstrate that the results from our proposed model are quite robust with respect to differing factors across various conditions.

Predictive distributions for between-study heterogeneity and simple methods for their application in Bayesian meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Turner, Rebecca M; Jackson, Dan; Wei, Yinghui; Thompson, Simon G; Higgins, Julian P T

2015-01-01

Numerous meta-analyses in healthcare research combine results from only a small number of studies, for which the variance representing between-study heterogeneity is estimated imprecisely. A Bayesian approach to estimation allows external evidence on the expected magnitude of heterogeneity to be incorporated. The aim of this paper is to provide tools that improve the accessibility of Bayesian meta-analysis. We present two methods for implementing Bayesian meta-analysis, using numerical integration and importance sampling techniques. Based on 14 886 binary outcome meta-analyses in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, we derive a novel set of predictive distributions for the degree of heterogeneity expected in 80 settings depending on the outcomes assessed and comparisons made. These can be used as prior distributions for heterogeneity in future meta-analyses. The two methods are implemented in R, for which code is provided. Both methods produce equivalent results to standard but more complex Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches. The priors are derived as log-normal distributions for the between-study variance, applicable to meta-analyses of binary outcomes on the log odds-ratio scale. The methods are applied to two example meta-analyses, incorporating the relevant predictive distributions as prior distributions for between-study heterogeneity. We have provided resources to facilitate Bayesian meta-analysis, in a form accessible to applied researchers, which allow relevant prior information on the degree of heterogeneity to be incorporated. © 2014 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:25475839

A fully Bayesian before-after analysis of permeable friction course (PFC) pavement wet weather safety.

PubMed

Buddhavarapu, Prasad; Smit, Andre F; Prozzi, Jorge A

2015-07-01

Permeable friction course (PFC), a porous hot-mix asphalt, is typically applied to improve wet weather safety on high-speed roadways in Texas. In order to warrant expensive PFC construction, a statistical evaluation of its safety benefits is essential. Generally, the literature on the effectiveness of porous mixes in reducing wet-weather crashes is limited and often inconclusive. In this study, the safety effectiveness of PFC was evaluated using a fully Bayesian before-after safety analysis. First, two groups of road segments overlaid with PFC and non-PFC material were identified across Texas; the non-PFC or reference road segments selected were similar to their PFC counterparts in terms of site specific features. Second, a negative binomial data generating process was assumed to model the underlying distribution of crash counts of PFC and reference road segments to perform Bayesian inference on the safety effectiveness. A data-augmentation based computationally efficient algorithm was employed for a fully Bayesian estimation. The statistical analysis shows that PFC is not effective in reducing wet weather crashes. It should be noted that the findings of this study are in agreement with the existing literature, although these studies were not based on a fully Bayesian statistical analysis. Our study suggests that the safety effectiveness of PFC road surfaces, or any other safety infrastructure, largely relies on its interrelationship with the road user. The results suggest that the safety infrastructure must be properly used to reap the benefits of the substantial investments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A fully Bayesian method for jointly fitting instrumental calibration and X-ray spectral models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Jin; Yu, Yaming; Van Dyk, David A.

2014-10-20

Owing to a lack of robust principled methods, systematic instrumental uncertainties have generally been ignored in astrophysical data analysis despite wide recognition of the importance of including them. Ignoring calibration uncertainty can cause bias in the estimation of source model parameters and can lead to underestimation of the variance of these estimates. We previously introduced a pragmatic Bayesian method to address this problem. The method is 'pragmatic' in that it introduced an ad hoc technique that simplified computation by neglecting the potential information in the data for narrowing the uncertainty for the calibration product. Following that work, we use amore » principal component analysis to efficiently represent the uncertainty of the effective area of an X-ray (or γ-ray) telescope. Here, however, we leverage this representation to enable a principled, fully Bayesian method that coherently accounts for the calibration uncertainty in high-energy spectral analysis. In this setting, the method is compared with standard analysis techniques and the pragmatic Bayesian method. The advantage of the fully Bayesian method is that it allows the data to provide information not only for estimation of the source parameters but also for the calibration product—here the effective area, conditional on the adopted spectral model. In this way, it can yield more accurate and efficient estimates of the source parameters along with valid estimates of their uncertainty. Provided that the source spectrum can be accurately described by a parameterized model, this method allows rigorous inference about the effective area by quantifying which possible curves are most consistent with the data.« less

Bayesian Techniques for Plasma Theory to Bridge the Gap Between Space and Lab Plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crabtree, Chris; Ganguli, Gurudas; Tejero, Erik

2017-10-01

We will show how Bayesian techniques provide a general data analysis methodology that is better suited to investigate phenomena that require a nonlinear theory for an explanation. We will provide short examples of how Bayesian techniques have been successfully used in the radiation belts to provide precise nonlinear spectral estimates of whistler mode chorus and how these techniques have been verified in laboratory plasmas. We will demonstrate how Bayesian techniques allow for the direct competition of different physical theories with data acting as the necessary arbitrator. This work is supported by the Naval Research Laboratory base program and by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant No. NNH15AZ90I.

Bayesian just-so stories in psychology and neuroscience.

PubMed

Bowers, Jeffrey S; Davis, Colin J

2012-05-01

According to Bayesian theories in psychology and neuroscience, minds and brains are (near) optimal in solving a wide range of tasks. We challenge this view and argue that more traditional, non-Bayesian approaches are more promising. We make 3 main arguments. First, we show that the empirical evidence for Bayesian theories in psychology is weak. This weakness relates to the many arbitrary ways that priors, likelihoods, and utility functions can be altered in order to account for the data that are obtained, making the models unfalsifiable. It further relates to the fact that Bayesian theories are rarely better at predicting data compared with alternative (and simpler) non-Bayesian theories. Second, we show that the empirical evidence for Bayesian theories in neuroscience is weaker still. There are impressive mathematical analyses showing how populations of neurons could compute in a Bayesian manner but little or no evidence that they do. Third, we challenge the general scientific approach that characterizes Bayesian theorizing in cognitive science. A common premise is that theories in psychology should largely be constrained by a rational analysis of what the mind ought to do. We question this claim and argue that many of the important constraints come from biological, evolutionary, and processing (algorithmic) considerations that have no adaptive relevance to the problem per se. In our view, these factors have contributed to the development of many Bayesian "just so" stories in psychology and neuroscience; that is, mathematical analyses of cognition that can be used to explain almost any behavior as optimal. 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Evaluation of a Partial Genome Screening of Two Asthma Susceptibility Regions Using Bayesian Network Based Bayesian Multilevel Analysis of Relevance

PubMed Central

Antal, Péter; Kiszel, Petra Sz.; Gézsi, András; Hadadi, Éva; Virág, Viktor; Hajós, Gergely; Millinghoffer, András; Nagy, Adrienne; Kiss, András; Semsei, Ágnes F.; Temesi, Gergely; Melegh, Béla; Kisfali, Péter; Széll, Márta; Bikov, András; Gálffy, Gabriella; Tamási, Lilla; Falus, András; Szalai, Csaba

2012-01-01

Genetic studies indicate high number of potential factors related to asthma. Based on earlier linkage analyses we selected the 11q13 and 14q22 asthma susceptibility regions, for which we designed a partial genome screening study using 145 SNPs in 1201 individuals (436 asthmatic children and 765 controls). The results were evaluated with traditional frequentist methods and we applied a new statistical method, called Bayesian network based Bayesian multilevel analysis of relevance (BN-BMLA). This method uses Bayesian network representation to provide detailed characterization of the relevance of factors, such as joint significance, the type of dependency, and multi-target aspects. We estimated posteriors for these relations within the Bayesian statistical framework, in order to estimate the posteriors whether a variable is directly relevant or its association is only mediated. With frequentist methods one SNP (rs3751464 in the FRMD6 gene) provided evidence for an association with asthma (OR = 1.43(1.2–1.8); p = 3×10−4). The possible role of the FRMD6 gene in asthma was also confirmed in an animal model and human asthmatics. In the BN-BMLA analysis altogether 5 SNPs in 4 genes were found relevant in connection with asthma phenotype: PRPF19 on chromosome 11, and FRMD6, PTGER2 and PTGDR on chromosome 14. In a subsequent step a partial dataset containing rhinitis and further clinical parameters was used, which allowed the analysis of relevance of SNPs for asthma and multiple targets. These analyses suggested that SNPs in the AHNAK and MS4A2 genes were indirectly associated with asthma. This paper indicates that BN-BMLA explores the relevant factors more comprehensively than traditional statistical methods and extends the scope of strong relevance based methods to include partial relevance, global characterization of relevance and multi-target relevance. PMID:22432035

A Two-Step Bayesian Approach for Propensity Score Analysis: Simulations and Case Study.

PubMed

Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

2012-07-01

A two-step Bayesian propensity score approach is introduced that incorporates prior information in the propensity score equation and outcome equation without the problems associated with simultaneous Bayesian propensity score approaches. The corresponding variance estimators are also provided. The two-step Bayesian propensity score is provided for three methods of implementation: propensity score stratification, weighting, and optimal full matching. Three simulation studies and one case study are presented to elaborate the proposed two-step Bayesian propensity score approach. Results of the simulation studies reveal that greater precision in the propensity score equation yields better recovery of the frequentist-based treatment effect. A slight advantage is shown for the Bayesian approach in small samples. Results also reveal that greater precision around the wrong treatment effect can lead to seriously distorted results. However, greater precision around the correct treatment effect parameter yields quite good results, with slight improvement seen with greater precision in the propensity score equation. A comparison of coverage rates for the conventional frequentist approach and proposed Bayesian approach is also provided. The case study reveals that credible intervals are wider than frequentist confidence intervals when priors are non-informative.

Statistical analysis of loopy belief propagation in random fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yasuda, Muneki; Kataoka, Shun; Tanaka, Kazuyuki

2015-10-01

Loopy belief propagation (LBP), which is equivalent to the Bethe approximation in statistical mechanics, is a message-passing-type inference method that is widely used to analyze systems based on Markov random fields (MRFs). In this paper, we propose a message-passing-type method to analytically evaluate the quenched average of LBP in random fields by using the replica cluster variation method. The proposed analytical method is applicable to general pairwise MRFs with random fields whose distributions differ from each other and can give the quenched averages of the Bethe free energies over random fields, which are consistent with numerical results. The order of its computational cost is equivalent to that of standard LBP. In the latter part of this paper, we describe the application of the proposed method to Bayesian image restoration, in which we observed that our theoretical results are in good agreement with the numerical results for natural images.

Robust Bayesian Analysis of Heavy-tailed Stochastic Volatility Models using Scale Mixtures of Normal Distributions

PubMed Central

Abanto-Valle, C. A.; Bandyopadhyay, D.; Lachos, V. H.; Enriquez, I.

2009-01-01

A Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility (SV) models using the class of symmetric scale mixtures of normal (SMN) distributions is considered. In the face of non-normality, this provides an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of the normal distribution. Specific distributions examined include the normal, student-t, slash and the variance gamma distributions. Using a Bayesian paradigm, an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is introduced for parameter estimation. Moreover, the mixing parameters obtained as a by-product of the scale mixture representation can be used to identify outliers. The methods developed are applied to analyze daily stock returns data on S&P500 index. Bayesian model selection criteria as well as out-of- sample forecasting results reveal that the SV models based on heavy-tailed SMN distributions provide significant improvement in model fit as well as prediction to the S&P500 index data over the usual normal model. PMID:20730043

Bayesian Analysis of the Association between Family-Level Factors and Siblings' Dental Caries.

PubMed

Wen, A; Weyant, R J; McNeil, D W; Crout, R J; Neiswanger, K; Marazita, M L; Foxman, B

2017-07-01

We conducted a Bayesian analysis of the association between family-level socioeconomic status and smoking and the prevalence of dental caries among siblings (children from infant to 14 y) among children living in rural and urban Northern Appalachia using data from the Center for Oral Health Research in Appalachia (COHRA). The observed proportion of siblings sharing caries was significantly different from predicted assuming siblings' caries status was independent. Using a Bayesian hierarchical model, we found the inclusion of a household factor significantly improved the goodness of fit. Other findings showed an inverse association between parental education and siblings' caries and a positive association between households with smokers and siblings' caries. Our study strengthens existing evidence suggesting that increased parental education and decreased parental cigarette smoking are associated with reduced childhood caries in the household. Our results also demonstrate the value of a Bayesian approach, which allows us to include household as a random effect, thereby providing more accurate estimates than obtained using generalized linear mixed models.

Bayesian generalized least squares regression with application to log Pearson type 3 regional skew estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reis, D. S.; Stedinger, J. R.; Martins, E. S.

2005-10-01

This paper develops a Bayesian approach to analysis of a generalized least squares (GLS) regression model for regional analyses of hydrologic data. The new approach allows computation of the posterior distributions of the parameters and the model error variance using a quasi-analytic approach. Two regional skew estimation studies illustrate the value of the Bayesian GLS approach for regional statistical analysis of a shape parameter and demonstrate that regional skew models can be relatively precise with effective record lengths in excess of 60 years. With Bayesian GLS the marginal posterior distribution of the model error variance and the corresponding mean and variance of the parameters can be computed directly, thereby providing a simple but important extension of the regional GLS regression procedures popularized by Tasker and Stedinger (1989), which is sensitive to the likely values of the model error variance when it is small relative to the sampling error in the at-site estimator.

Bayesian Estimation of the True Prevalence and of the Diagnostic Test Sensitivity and Specificity of Enteropathogenic Yersinia in Finnish Pig Serum Samples.

PubMed

Vilar, M J; Ranta, J; Virtanen, S; Korkeala, H

2015-01-01

Bayesian analysis was used to estimate the pig's and herd's true prevalence of enteropathogenic Yersinia in serum samples collected from Finnish pig farms. The sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test were also estimated for the commercially available ELISA which is used for antibody detection against enteropathogenic Yersinia. The Bayesian analysis was performed in two steps; the first step estimated the prior true prevalence of enteropathogenic Yersinia with data obtained from a systematic review of the literature. In the second step, data of the apparent prevalence (cross-sectional study data), prior true prevalence (first step), and estimated sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods were used for building the Bayesian model. The true prevalence of Yersinia in slaughter-age pigs was 67.5% (95% PI 63.2-70.9). The true prevalence of Yersinia in sows was 74.0% (95% PI 57.3-82.4). The estimates of sensitivity and specificity values of the ELISA were 79.5% and 96.9%.

A Bayesian Approach to a Multiple-Group Latent Class-Profile Analysis: The Timing of Drinking Onset and Subsequent Drinking Behaviors among U.S. Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chung, Hwan; Anthony, James C.

2013-01-01

This article presents a multiple-group latent class-profile analysis (LCPA) by taking a Bayesian approach in which a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is employed to achieve more robust estimates for latent growth patterns. This article describes and addresses a label-switching problem that involves the LCPA likelihood function, which has…

Bayesian Logic Programs for Plan Recognition and Machine Reading

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-01

models is that they can handle both uncertainty and structured/ relational data. As a result, they are widely used in domains like social network...data. As a result, they are widely used in domains like social net- work analysis, biological data analysis, and natural language processing. Bayesian...the Story Understanding data set. (b) The logical representation of the observations. (c) The set of ground rules obtained from logical abduction

Bayesian Models for Astrophysical Data Using R, JAGS, Python, and Stan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hilbe, Joseph M.; de Souza, Rafael S.; Ishida, Emille E. O.

2017-05-01

This comprehensive guide to Bayesian methods in astronomy enables hands-on work by supplying complete R, JAGS, Python, and Stan code, to use directly or to adapt. It begins by examining the normal model from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives and then progresses to a full range of Bayesian generalized linear and mixed or hierarchical models, as well as additional types of models such as ABC and INLA. The book provides code that is largely unavailable elsewhere and includes details on interpreting and evaluating Bayesian models. Initial discussions offer models in synthetic form so that readers can easily adapt them to their own data; later the models are applied to real astronomical data. The consistent focus is on hands-on modeling, analysis of data, and interpretations that address scientific questions. A must-have for astronomers, its concrete approach will also be attractive to researchers in the sciences more generally.

Bayesian model for matching the radiometric measurements of aerospace and field ocean color sensors.

PubMed

Salama, Mhd Suhyb; Su, Zhongbo

2010-01-01

A Bayesian model is developed to match aerospace ocean color observation to field measurements and derive the spatial variability of match-up sites. The performance of the model is tested against populations of synthesized spectra and full and reduced resolutions of MERIS data. The model derived the scale difference between synthesized satellite pixel and point measurements with R(2) > 0.88 and relative error < 21% in the spectral range from 400 nm to 695 nm. The sub-pixel variabilities of reduced resolution MERIS image are derived with less than 12% of relative errors in heterogeneous region. The method is generic and applicable to different sensors.

AUTOMATED ANALYSIS OF QUANTITATIVE IMAGE DATA USING ISOMORPHIC FUNCTIONAL MIXED MODELS, WITH APPLICATION TO PROTEOMICS DATA.

PubMed

Morris, Jeffrey S; Baladandayuthapani, Veerabhadran; Herrick, Richard C; Sanna, Pietro; Gutstein, Howard

2011-01-01

Image data are increasingly encountered and are of growing importance in many areas of science. Much of these data are quantitative image data, which are characterized by intensities that represent some measurement of interest in the scanned images. The data typically consist of multiple images on the same domain and the goal of the research is to combine the quantitative information across images to make inference about populations or interventions. In this paper, we present a unified analysis framework for the analysis of quantitative image data using a Bayesian functional mixed model approach. This framework is flexible enough to handle complex, irregular images with many local features, and can model the simultaneous effects of multiple factors on the image intensities and account for the correlation between images induced by the design. We introduce a general isomorphic modeling approach to fitting the functional mixed model, of which the wavelet-based functional mixed model is one special case. With suitable modeling choices, this approach leads to efficient calculations and can result in flexible modeling and adaptive smoothing of the salient features in the data. The proposed method has the following advantages: it can be run automatically, it produces inferential plots indicating which regions of the image are associated with each factor, it simultaneously considers the practical and statistical significance of findings, and it controls the false discovery rate. Although the method we present is general and can be applied to quantitative image data from any application, in this paper we focus on image-based proteomic data. We apply our method to an animal study investigating the effects of opiate addiction on the brain proteome. Our image-based functional mixed model approach finds results that are missed with conventional spot-based analysis approaches. In particular, we find that the significant regions of the image identified by the proposed method frequently correspond to subregions of visible spots that may represent post-translational modifications or co-migrating proteins that cannot be visually resolved from adjacent, more abundant proteins on the gel image. Thus, it is possible that this image-based approach may actually improve the realized resolution of the gel, revealing differentially expressed proteins that would not have even been detected as spots by modern spot-based analyses.

Toward an ecological analysis of Bayesian inferences: how task characteristics influence responses

PubMed Central

Hafenbrädl, Sebastian; Hoffrage, Ulrich

2015-01-01

In research on Bayesian inferences, the specific tasks, with their narratives and characteristics, are typically seen as exchangeable vehicles that merely transport the structure of the problem to research participants. In the present paper, we explore whether, and possibly how, task characteristics that are usually ignored influence participants’ responses in these tasks. We focus on both quantitative dimensions of the tasks, such as their base rates, hit rates, and false-alarm rates, as well as qualitative characteristics, such as whether the task involves a norm violation or not, whether the stakes are high or low, and whether the focus is on the individual case or on the numbers. Using a data set of 19 different tasks presented to 500 different participants who provided a total of 1,773 responses, we analyze these responses in two ways: first, on the level of the numerical estimates themselves, and second, on the level of various response strategies, Bayesian and non-Bayesian, that might have produced the estimates. We identified various contingencies, and most of the task characteristics had an influence on participants’ responses. Typically, this influence has been stronger when the numerical information in the tasks was presented in terms of probabilities or percentages, compared to natural frequencies – and this effect cannot be fully explained by a higher proportion of Bayesian responses when natural frequencies were used. One characteristic that did not seem to influence participants’ response strategy was the numerical value of the Bayesian solution itself. Our exploratory study is a first step toward an ecological analysis of Bayesian inferences, and highlights new avenues for future research. PMID:26300791

Hip fracture in the elderly: a re-analysis of the EPIDOS study with causal Bayesian networks.

PubMed

Caillet, Pascal; Klemm, Sarah; Ducher, Michel; Aussem, Alexandre; Schott, Anne-Marie

2015-01-01

Hip fractures commonly result in permanent disability, institutionalization or death in elderly. Existing hip-fracture predicting tools are underused in clinical practice, partly due to their lack of intuitive interpretation. By use of a graphical layer, Bayesian network models could increase the attractiveness of fracture prediction tools. Our aim was to study the potential contribution of a causal Bayesian network in this clinical setting. A logistic regression was performed as a standard control approach to check the robustness of the causal Bayesian network approach. EPIDOS is a multicenter study, conducted in an ambulatory care setting in five French cities between 1992 and 1996 and updated in 2010. The study included 7598 women aged 75 years or older, in which fractures were assessed quarterly during 4 years. A causal Bayesian network and a logistic regression were performed on EPIDOS data to describe major variables involved in hip fractures occurrences. Both models had similar association estimations and predictive performances. They detected gait speed and mineral bone density as variables the most involved in the fracture process. The causal Bayesian network showed that gait speed and bone mineral density were directly connected to fracture and seem to mediate the influence of all the other variables included in our model. The logistic regression approach detected multiple interactions involving psychotropic drug use, age and bone mineral density. Both approaches retrieved similar variables as predictors of hip fractures. However, Bayesian network highlighted the whole web of relation between the variables involved in the analysis, suggesting a possible mechanism leading to hip fracture. According to the latter results, intervention focusing concomitantly on gait speed and bone mineral density may be necessary for an optimal prevention of hip fracture occurrence in elderly people.

Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

2017-08-01

Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been developed and widely applied, but there is still room for improvements. Future research in the context of Bayesian flood forecasting should be on assimilation of various sources of newly available information and improvement of predictive performance assessment methods.

Bayesian analysis of non-homogeneous Markov chains: application to mental health data.

PubMed

Sung, Minje; Soyer, Refik; Nhan, Nguyen

2007-07-10

In this paper we present a formal treatment of non-homogeneous Markov chains by introducing a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Our work is motivated by the analysis of correlated categorical data which arise in assessment of psychiatric treatment programs. In our development, we introduce a Markovian structure to describe the non-homogeneity of transition patterns. In doing so, we introduce a logistic regression set-up for Markov chains and incorporate covariates in our model. We present a Bayesian model using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and develop inference procedures to address issues encountered in the analyses of data from psychiatric treatment programs. Our model and inference procedures are implemented to some real data from a psychiatric treatment study. Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A FAST BAYESIAN METHOD FOR UPDATING AND FORECASTING HOURLY OZONE LEVELS

EPA Science Inventory

A Bayesian hierarchical space-time model is proposed by combining information from real-time ambient AIRNow air monitoring data, and output from a computer simulation model known as the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (Eta-CMAQ) forecast model. A model validation analysis shows...

Uncertainty estimation of a complex water quality model: The influence of Box-Cox transformation on Bayesian approaches and comparison with a non-Bayesian method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freni, Gabriele; Mannina, Giorgio

In urban drainage modelling, uncertainty analysis is of undoubted necessity. However, uncertainty analysis in urban water-quality modelling is still in its infancy and only few studies have been carried out. Therefore, several methodological aspects still need to be experienced and clarified especially regarding water quality modelling. The use of the Bayesian approach for uncertainty analysis has been stimulated by its rigorous theoretical framework and by the possibility of evaluating the impact of new knowledge on the modelling predictions. Nevertheless, the Bayesian approach relies on some restrictive hypotheses that are not present in less formal methods like the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE). One crucial point in the application of Bayesian method is the formulation of a likelihood function that is conditioned by the hypotheses made regarding model residuals. Statistical transformations, such as the use of Box-Cox equation, are generally used to ensure the homoscedasticity of residuals. However, this practice may affect the reliability of the analysis leading to a wrong uncertainty estimation. The present paper aims to explore the influence of the Box-Cox equation for environmental water quality models. To this end, five cases were considered one of which was the “real” residuals distributions (i.e. drawn from available data). The analysis was applied to the Nocella experimental catchment (Italy) which is an agricultural and semi-urbanised basin where two sewer systems, two wastewater treatment plants and a river reach were monitored during both dry and wet weather periods. The results show that the uncertainty estimation is greatly affected by residual transformation and a wrong assumption may also affect the evaluation of model uncertainty. The use of less formal methods always provide an overestimation of modelling uncertainty with respect to Bayesian method but such effect is reduced if a wrong assumption is made regarding the residuals distribution. If residuals are not normally distributed, the uncertainty is over-estimated if Box-Cox transformation is not applied or non-calibrated parameter is used.

BROCCOLI: Software for fast fMRI analysis on many-core CPUs and GPUs

PubMed Central

Eklund, Anders; Dufort, Paul; Villani, Mattias; LaConte, Stephen

2014-01-01

Analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data is becoming ever more computationally demanding as temporal and spatial resolutions improve, and large, publicly available data sets proliferate. Moreover, methodological improvements in the neuroimaging pipeline, such as non-linear spatial normalization, non-parametric permutation tests and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approaches, can dramatically increase the computational burden. Despite these challenges, there do not yet exist any fMRI software packages which leverage inexpensive and powerful graphics processing units (GPUs) to perform these analyses. Here, we therefore present BROCCOLI, a free software package written in OpenCL (Open Computing Language) that can be used for parallel analysis of fMRI data on a large variety of hardware configurations. BROCCOLI has, for example, been tested with an Intel CPU, an Nvidia GPU, and an AMD GPU. These tests show that parallel processing of fMRI data can lead to significantly faster analysis pipelines. This speedup can be achieved on relatively standard hardware, but further, dramatic speed improvements require only a modest investment in GPU hardware. BROCCOLI (running on a GPU) can perform non-linear spatial normalization to a 1 mm3 brain template in 4–6 s, and run a second level permutation test with 10,000 permutations in about a minute. These non-parametric tests are generally more robust than their parametric counterparts, and can also enable more sophisticated analyses by estimating complicated null distributions. Additionally, BROCCOLI includes support for Bayesian first-level fMRI analysis using a Gibbs sampler. The new software is freely available under GNU GPL3 and can be downloaded from github (https://github.com/wanderine/BROCCOLI/). PMID:24672471

Propagation of population pharmacokinetic information using a Bayesian approach: comparison with meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dokoumetzidis, Aristides; Aarons, Leon

2005-08-01

We investigated the propagation of population pharmacokinetic information across clinical studies by applying Bayesian techniques. The aim was to summarize the population pharmacokinetic estimates of a study in appropriate statistical distributions in order to use them as Bayesian priors in consequent population pharmacokinetic analyses. Various data sets of simulated and real clinical data were fitted with WinBUGS, with and without informative priors. The posterior estimates of fittings with non-informative priors were used to build parametric informative priors and the whole procedure was carried on in a consecutive manner. The posterior distributions of the fittings with informative priors where compared to those of the meta-analysis fittings of the respective combinations of data sets. Good agreement was found, for the simulated and experimental datasets when the populations were exchangeable, with the posterior distribution from the fittings with the prior to be nearly identical to the ones estimated with meta-analysis. However, when populations were not exchangeble an alternative parametric form for the prior, the natural conjugate prior, had to be used in order to have consistent results. In conclusion, the results of a population pharmacokinetic analysis may be summarized in Bayesian prior distributions that can be used consecutively with other analyses. The procedure is an alternative to meta-analysis and gives comparable results. It has the advantage that it is faster than the meta-analysis, due to the large datasets used with the latter and can be performed when the data included in the prior are not actually available.

A Development of Nonstationary Regional Frequency Analysis Model with Large-scale Climate Information: Its Application to Korean Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jin-Young; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Kim, Hung-Soo

2015-04-01

The existing regional frequency analysis has disadvantages in that it is difficult to consider geographical characteristics in estimating areal rainfall. In this regard, this study aims to develop a hierarchical Bayesian model based nonstationary regional frequency analysis in that spatial patterns of the design rainfall with geographical information (e.g. latitude, longitude and altitude) are explicitly incorporated. This study assumes that the parameters of Gumbel (or GEV distribution) are a function of geographical characteristics within a general linear regression framework. Posterior distribution of the regression parameters are estimated by Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, and the identified functional relationship is used to spatially interpolate the parameters of the distributions by using digital elevation models (DEM) as inputs. The proposed model is applied to derive design rainfalls over the entire Han-river watershed. It was found that the proposed Bayesian regional frequency analysis model showed similar results compared to L-moment based regional frequency analysis. In addition, the model showed an advantage in terms of quantifying uncertainty of the design rainfall and estimating the area rainfall considering geographical information. Finally, comprehensive discussion on design rainfall in the context of nonstationary will be presented. KEYWORDS: Regional frequency analysis, Nonstationary, Spatial information, Bayesian Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Bayesian CP Factorization of Incomplete Tensors with Automatic Rank Determination.

PubMed

Zhao, Qibin; Zhang, Liqing; Cichocki, Andrzej

2015-09-01

CANDECOMP/PARAFAC (CP) tensor factorization of incomplete data is a powerful technique for tensor completion through explicitly capturing the multilinear latent factors. The existing CP algorithms require the tensor rank to be manually specified, however, the determination of tensor rank remains a challenging problem especially for CP rank . In addition, existing approaches do not take into account uncertainty information of latent factors, as well as missing entries. To address these issues, we formulate CP factorization using a hierarchical probabilistic model and employ a fully Bayesian treatment by incorporating a sparsity-inducing prior over multiple latent factors and the appropriate hyperpriors over all hyperparameters, resulting in automatic rank determination. To learn the model, we develop an efficient deterministic Bayesian inference algorithm, which scales linearly with data size. Our method is characterized as a tuning parameter-free approach, which can effectively infer underlying multilinear factors with a low-rank constraint, while also providing predictive distributions over missing entries. Extensive simulations on synthetic data illustrate the intrinsic capability of our method to recover the ground-truth of CP rank and prevent the overfitting problem, even when a large amount of entries are missing. Moreover, the results from real-world applications, including image inpainting and facial image synthesis, demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches for both tensor factorization and tensor completion in terms of predictive performance.

Automated high resolution mapping of coffee in Rwanda using an expert Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukashema, A.; Veldkamp, A.; Vrieling, A.

2014-12-01

African highland agro-ecosystems are dominated by small-scale agricultural fields that often contain a mix of annual and perennial crops. This makes such systems difficult to map by remote sensing. We developed an expert Bayesian network model to extract the small-scale coffee fields of Rwanda from very high resolution data. The model was subsequently applied to aerial orthophotos covering more than 99% of Rwanda and on one QuickBird image for the remaining part. The method consists of a stepwise adjustment of pixel probabilities, which incorporates expert knowledge on size of coffee trees and fields, and on their location. The initial naive Bayesian network, which is a spectral-based classification, yielded a coffee map with an overall accuracy of around 50%. This confirms that standard spectral variables alone cannot accurately identify coffee fields from high resolution images. The combination of spectral and ancillary data (DEM and a forest map) allowed mapping of coffee fields and associated uncertainties with an overall accuracy of 87%. Aggregated to district units, the mapped coffee areas demonstrated a high correlation with the coffee areas reported in the detailed national coffee census of 2009 (R2 = 0.92). Unlike the census data our map provides high spatial resolution of coffee area patterns of Rwanda. The proposed method has potential for mapping other perennial small scale cropping systems in the East African Highlands and elsewhere.

Pathway analysis of high-throughput biological data within a Bayesian network framework.

PubMed

Isci, Senol; Ozturk, Cengizhan; Jones, Jon; Otu, Hasan H

2011-06-15

Most current approaches to high-throughput biological data (HTBD) analysis either perform individual gene/protein analysis or, gene/protein set enrichment analysis for a list of biologically relevant molecules. Bayesian Networks (BNs) capture linear and non-linear interactions, handle stochastic events accounting for noise, and focus on local interactions, which can be related to causal inference. Here, we describe for the first time an algorithm that models biological pathways as BNs and identifies pathways that best explain given HTBD by scoring fitness of each network. Proposed method takes into account the connectivity and relatedness between nodes of the pathway through factoring pathway topology in its model. Our simulations using synthetic data demonstrated robustness of our approach. We tested proposed method, Bayesian Pathway Analysis (BPA), on human microarray data regarding renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and compared our results with gene set enrichment analysis. BPA was able to find broader and more specific pathways related to RCC. Accompanying BPA software (BPAS) package is freely available for academic use at http://bumil.boun.edu.tr/bpa.

A Bayesian method for using simulator data to enhance human error probabilities assigned by existing HRA methods

DOE PAGES

Groth, Katrina M.; Smith, Curtis L.; Swiler, Laura P.

2014-04-05

In the past several years, several international agencies have begun to collect data on human performance in nuclear power plant simulators [1]. This data provides a valuable opportunity to improve human reliability analysis (HRA), but there improvements will not be realized without implementation of Bayesian methods. Bayesian methods are widely used in to incorporate sparse data into models in many parts of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), but Bayesian methods have not been adopted by the HRA community. In this article, we provide a Bayesian methodology to formally use simulator data to refine the human error probabilities (HEPs) assigned by existingmore » HRA methods. We demonstrate the methodology with a case study, wherein we use simulator data from the Halden Reactor Project to update the probability assignments from the SPAR-H method. The case study demonstrates the ability to use performance data, even sparse data, to improve existing HRA methods. Furthermore, this paper also serves as a demonstration of the value of Bayesian methods to improve the technical basis of HRA.« less

Data Envelopment Analysis in the Presence of Measurement Error: Case Study from the National Database of Nursing Quality Indicators® (NDNQI®)

PubMed Central

Gajewski, Byron J.; Lee, Robert; Dunton, Nancy

2012-01-01

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is the most commonly used approach for evaluating healthcare efficiency (Hollingsworth, 2008), but a long-standing concern is that DEA assumes that data are measured without error. This is quite unlikely, and DEA and other efficiency analysis techniques may yield biased efficiency estimates if it is not realized (Gajewski, Lee, Bott, Piamjariyakul and Taunton, 2009; Ruggiero, 2004). We propose to address measurement error systematically using a Bayesian method (Bayesian DEA). We will apply Bayesian DEA to data from the National Database of Nursing Quality Indicators® (NDNQI®) to estimate nursing units’ efficiency. Several external reliability studies inform the posterior distribution of the measurement error on the DEA variables. We will discuss the case of generalizing the approach to situations where an external reliability study is not feasible. PMID:23328796

A denoising algorithm for CT image using low-rank sparse coding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Yang; Xu, Dong; Zhou, Zhengyang; Wang, Tonghe; Dong, Xue; Liu, Tian; Dhabaan, Anees; Curran, Walter J.; Yang, Xiaofeng

2018-03-01

We propose a denoising method of CT image based on low-rank sparse coding. The proposed method constructs an adaptive dictionary of image patches and estimates the sparse coding regularization parameters using the Bayesian interpretation. A low-rank approximation approach is used to simultaneously construct the dictionary and achieve sparse representation through clustering similar image patches. A variable-splitting scheme and a quadratic optimization are used to reconstruct CT image based on achieved sparse coefficients. We tested this denoising technology using phantom, brain and abdominal CT images. The experimental results showed that the proposed method delivers state-of-art denoising performance, both in terms of objective criteria and visual quality.

Bayesian approach for counting experiment statistics applied to a neutrino point source analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bose, D.; Brayeur, L.; Casier, M.; de Vries, K. D.; Golup, G.; van Eijndhoven, N.

2013-12-01

In this paper we present a model independent analysis method following Bayesian statistics to analyse data from a generic counting experiment and apply it to the search for neutrinos from point sources. We discuss a test statistic defined following a Bayesian framework that will be used in the search for a signal. In case no signal is found, we derive an upper limit without the introduction of approximations. The Bayesian approach allows us to obtain the full probability density function for both the background and the signal rate. As such, we have direct access to any signal upper limit. The upper limit derivation directly compares with a frequentist approach and is robust in the case of low-counting observations. Furthermore, it allows also to account for previous upper limits obtained by other analyses via the concept of prior information without the need of the ad hoc application of trial factors. To investigate the validity of the presented Bayesian approach, we have applied this method to the public IceCube 40-string configuration data for 10 nearby blazars and we have obtained a flux upper limit, which is in agreement with the upper limits determined via a frequentist approach. Furthermore, the upper limit obtained compares well with the previously published result of IceCube, using the same data set.

Comparing interval estimates for small sample ordinal CFA models

PubMed Central

Natesan, Prathiba

2015-01-01

Robust maximum likelihood (RML) and asymptotically generalized least squares (AGLS) methods have been recommended for fitting ordinal structural equation models. Studies show that some of these methods underestimate standard errors. However, these studies have not investigated the coverage and bias of interval estimates. An estimate with a reasonable standard error could still be severely biased. This can only be known by systematically investigating the interval estimates. The present study compares Bayesian, RML, and AGLS interval estimates of factor correlations in ordinal confirmatory factor analysis models (CFA) for small sample data. Six sample sizes, 3 factor correlations, and 2 factor score distributions (multivariate normal and multivariate mildly skewed) were studied. Two Bayesian prior specifications, informative and relatively less informative were studied. Undercoverage of confidence intervals and underestimation of standard errors was common in non-Bayesian methods. Underestimated standard errors may lead to inflated Type-I error rates. Non-Bayesian intervals were more positive biased than negatively biased, that is, most intervals that did not contain the true value were greater than the true value. Some non-Bayesian methods had non-converging and inadmissible solutions for small samples and non-normal data. Bayesian empirical standard error estimates for informative and relatively less informative priors were closer to the average standard errors of the estimates. The coverage of Bayesian credibility intervals was closer to what was expected with overcoverage in a few cases. Although some Bayesian credibility intervals were wider, they reflected the nature of statistical uncertainty that comes with the data (e.g., small sample). Bayesian point estimates were also more accurate than non-Bayesian estimates. The results illustrate the importance of analyzing coverage and bias of interval estimates, and how ignoring interval estimates can be misleading. Therefore, editors and policymakers should continue to emphasize the inclusion of interval estimates in research. PMID:26579002

Comparing interval estimates for small sample ordinal CFA models.

PubMed

Natesan, Prathiba

2015-01-01

Robust maximum likelihood (RML) and asymptotically generalized least squares (AGLS) methods have been recommended for fitting ordinal structural equation models. Studies show that some of these methods underestimate standard errors. However, these studies have not investigated the coverage and bias of interval estimates. An estimate with a reasonable standard error could still be severely biased. This can only be known by systematically investigating the interval estimates. The present study compares Bayesian, RML, and AGLS interval estimates of factor correlations in ordinal confirmatory factor analysis models (CFA) for small sample data. Six sample sizes, 3 factor correlations, and 2 factor score distributions (multivariate normal and multivariate mildly skewed) were studied. Two Bayesian prior specifications, informative and relatively less informative were studied. Undercoverage of confidence intervals and underestimation of standard errors was common in non-Bayesian methods. Underestimated standard errors may lead to inflated Type-I error rates. Non-Bayesian intervals were more positive biased than negatively biased, that is, most intervals that did not contain the true value were greater than the true value. Some non-Bayesian methods had non-converging and inadmissible solutions for small samples and non-normal data. Bayesian empirical standard error estimates for informative and relatively less informative priors were closer to the average standard errors of the estimates. The coverage of Bayesian credibility intervals was closer to what was expected with overcoverage in a few cases. Although some Bayesian credibility intervals were wider, they reflected the nature of statistical uncertainty that comes with the data (e.g., small sample). Bayesian point estimates were also more accurate than non-Bayesian estimates. The results illustrate the importance of analyzing coverage and bias of interval estimates, and how ignoring interval estimates can be misleading. Therefore, editors and policymakers should continue to emphasize the inclusion of interval estimates in research.

A Bayesian Missing Data Framework for Generalized Multiple Outcome Mixed Treatment Comparisons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hong, Hwanhee; Chu, Haitao; Zhang, Jing; Carlin, Bradley P.

2016-01-01

Bayesian statistical approaches to mixed treatment comparisons (MTCs) are becoming more popular because of their flexibility and interpretability. Many randomized clinical trials report multiple outcomes with possible inherent correlations. Moreover, MTC data are typically sparse (although richer than standard meta-analysis, comparing only two…

Multi-Scale Validation of a Nanodiamond Drug Delivery System and Multi-Scale Engineering Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwalbe, Michelle Kristin

2010-01-01

This dissertation has two primary concerns: (i) evaluating the uncertainty and prediction capabilities of a nanodiamond drug delivery model using Bayesian calibration and bias correction, and (ii) determining conceptual difficulties of multi-scale analysis from an engineering education perspective. A Bayesian uncertainty quantification scheme…

Bayesian Adaptive Lasso for Ordinal Regression with Latent Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feng, Xiang-Nan; Wu, Hao-Tian; Song, Xin-Yuan

2017-01-01

We consider an ordinal regression model with latent variables to investigate the effects of observable and latent explanatory variables on the ordinal responses of interest. Each latent variable is characterized by correlated observed variables through a confirmatory factor analysis model. We develop a Bayesian adaptive lasso procedure to conduct…

IMPLICATIONS OF USING ROBUST BAYESIAN ANALYSIS TO REPRESENT DIVERSE SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

In our previous research, we showed that robust Bayesian methods can be used in environmental modeling to define a set of probability distributions for key parameters that captures the effects of expert disagreement, ambiguity, or ignorance. This entire set can then be update...

Pig Data and Bayesian Inference on Multinomial Probabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kern, John C.

2006-01-01

Bayesian inference on multinomial probabilities is conducted based on data collected from the game Pass the Pigs[R]. Prior information on these probabilities is readily available from the instruction manual, and is easily incorporated in a Dirichlet prior. Posterior analysis of the scoring probabilities quantifies the discrepancy between empirical…

A Bayesian framework for extracting human gait using strong prior knowledge.

PubMed

Zhou, Ziheng; Prügel-Bennett, Adam; Damper, Robert I

2006-11-01

Extracting full-body motion of walking people from monocular video sequences in complex, real-world environments is an important and difficult problem, going beyond simple tracking, whose satisfactory solution demands an appropriate balance between use of prior knowledge and learning from data. We propose a consistent Bayesian framework for introducing strong prior knowledge into a system for extracting human gait. In this work, the strong prior is built from a simple articulated model having both time-invariant (static) and time-variant (dynamic) parameters. The model is easily modified to cater to situations such as walkers wearing clothing that obscures the limbs. The statistics of the parameters are learned from high-quality (indoor laboratory) data and the Bayesian framework then allows us to "bootstrap" to accurate gait extraction on the noisy images typical of cluttered, outdoor scenes. To achieve automatic fitting, we use a hidden Markov model to detect the phases of images in a walking cycle. We demonstrate our approach on silhouettes extracted from fronto-parallel ("sideways on") sequences of walkers under both high-quality indoor and noisy outdoor conditions. As well as high-quality data with synthetic noise and occlusions added, we also test walkers with rucksacks, skirts, and trench coats. Results are quantified in terms of chamfer distance and average pixel error between automatically extracted body points and corresponding hand-labeled points. No one part of the system is novel in itself, but the overall framework makes it feasible to extract gait from very much poorer quality image sequences than hitherto. This is confirmed by comparing person identification by gait using our method and a well-established baseline recognition algorithm.

Hyperspectral techniques in analysis of oral dosage forms.

PubMed

Hamilton, Sara J; Lowell, Amanda E; Lodder, Robert A

2002-10-01

Pharmaceutical oral dosage forms are used in this paper to test the sensitivity and spatial resolution of hyperspectral imaging instruments. The first experiment tested the hypothesis that a near-infrared (IR) tunable diode-based remote sensing system is capable of monitoring degradation of hard gelatin capsules at a relatively long distance (0.5 km). Spectra from the capsules were used to differentiate among capsules exposed to an atmosphere containing 150 ppb formaldehyde for 0, 2, 4, and 8 h. Robust median-based principal component regression with Bayesian inference was employed for outlier detection. The second experiment tested the hypothesis that near-IR imaging spectrometry of tablets permits the identification and composition of multiple individual tablets to be determined simultaneously. A near-IR camera was used to collect thousands of spectra simultaneously from a field of blister-packaged tablets. The number of tablets that a typical near-IR camera can currently analyze simultaneously was estimated to be approximately 1300. The bootstrap error-adjusted single-sample technique chemometric-imaging algorithm was used to draw probability-density contour plots that revealed tablet composition. The single-capsule analysis provides an indication of how far apart the sample and instrumentation can be and still maintain adequate signal-to-noise ratio (S/N), while the multiple-tablet imaging experiment gives an indication of how many samples can be analyzed simultaneously while maintaining an adequate S/N and pixel coverage on each sample.

Bayesian inference of the number of factors in gene-expression analysis: application to human virus challenge studies.

PubMed

Chen, Bo; Chen, Minhua; Paisley, John; Zaas, Aimee; Woods, Christopher; Ginsburg, Geoffrey S; Hero, Alfred; Lucas, Joseph; Dunson, David; Carin, Lawrence

2010-11-09

Nonparametric Bayesian techniques have been developed recently to extend the sophistication of factor models, allowing one to infer the number of appropriate factors from the observed data. We consider such techniques for sparse factor analysis, with application to gene-expression data from three virus challenge studies. Particular attention is placed on employing the Beta Process (BP), the Indian Buffet Process (IBP), and related sparseness-promoting techniques to infer a proper number of factors. The posterior density function on the model parameters is computed using Gibbs sampling and variational Bayesian (VB) analysis. Time-evolving gene-expression data are considered for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Rhino virus, and influenza, using blood samples from healthy human subjects. These data were acquired in three challenge studies, each executed after receiving institutional review board (IRB) approval from Duke University. Comparisons are made between several alternative means of per-forming nonparametric factor analysis on these data, with comparisons as well to sparse-PCA and Penalized Matrix Decomposition (PMD), closely related non-Bayesian approaches. Applying the Beta Process to the factor scores, or to the singular values of a pseudo-SVD construction, the proposed algorithms infer the number of factors in gene-expression data. For real data the "true" number of factors is unknown; in our simulations we consider a range of noise variances, and the proposed Bayesian models inferred the number of factors accurately relative to other methods in the literature, such as sparse-PCA and PMD. We have also identified a "pan-viral" factor of importance for each of the three viruses considered in this study. We have identified a set of genes associated with this pan-viral factor, of interest for early detection of such viruses based upon the host response, as quantified via gene-expression data.

Metis: A Pure Metropolis Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference Library

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bates, Cameron Russell; Mckigney, Edward Allen

The use of Bayesian inference in data analysis has become the standard for large scienti c experiments [1, 2]. The Monte Carlo Codes Group(XCP-3) at Los Alamos has developed a simple set of algorithms currently implemented in C++ and Python to easily perform at-prior Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian inference with pure Metropolis sampling. These implementations are designed to be user friendly and extensible for customization based on speci c application requirements. This document describes the algorithmic choices made and presents two use cases.

CRAFT (complete reduction to amplitude frequency table)--robust and time-efficient Bayesian approach for quantitative mixture analysis by NMR.

PubMed

Krishnamurthy, Krish

2013-12-01

The intrinsic quantitative nature of NMR is increasingly exploited in areas ranging from complex mixture analysis (as in metabolomics and reaction monitoring) to quality assurance/control. Complex NMR spectra are more common than not, and therefore, extraction of quantitative information generally involves significant prior knowledge and/or operator interaction to characterize resonances of interest. Moreover, in most NMR-based metabolomic experiments, the signals from metabolites are normally present as a mixture of overlapping resonances, making quantification difficult. Time-domain Bayesian approaches have been reported to be better than conventional frequency-domain analysis at identifying subtle changes in signal amplitude. We discuss an approach that exploits Bayesian analysis to achieve a complete reduction to amplitude frequency table (CRAFT) in an automated and time-efficient fashion - thus converting the time-domain FID to a frequency-amplitude table. CRAFT uses a two-step approach to FID analysis. First, the FID is digitally filtered and downsampled to several sub FIDs, and secondly, these sub FIDs are then modeled as sums of decaying sinusoids using the Bayesian approach. CRAFT tables can be used for further data mining of quantitative information using fingerprint chemical shifts of compounds of interest and/or statistical analysis of modulation of chemical quantity in a biological study (metabolomics) or process study (reaction monitoring) or quality assurance/control. The basic principles behind this approach as well as results to evaluate the effectiveness of this approach in mixture analysis are presented. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

New Approaches For Asteroid Spin State and Shape Modeling From Delay-Doppler Radar Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raissi, Chedy; Lamee, Mehdi; Mosiane, Olorato; Vassallo, Corinne; Busch, Michael W.; Greenberg, Adam; Benner, Lance A. M.; Naidu, Shantanu P.; Duong, Nicholas

2016-10-01

Delay-Doppler radar imaging is a powerful technique to characterize the trajectories, shapes, and spin states of near-Earth asteroids; and has yielded detailed models of dozens of objects. Reconstructing objects' shapes and spins from delay-Doppler data is a computationally intensive inversion problem. Since the 1990s, delay-Doppler data has been analyzed using the SHAPE software. SHAPE performs sequential single-parameter fitting, and requires considerable computer runtime and human intervention (Hudson 1993, Magri et al. 2007). Recently, multiple-parameter fitting algorithms have been shown to more efficiently invert delay-Doppler datasets (Greenberg & Margot 2015) - decreasing runtime while improving accuracy. However, extensive human oversight of the shape modeling process is still required. We have explored two new techniques to better automate delay-Doppler shape modeling: Bayesian optimization and a machine-learning neural network.One of the most time-intensive steps of the shape modeling process is to perform a grid search to constrain the target's spin state. We have implemented a Bayesian optimization routine that uses SHAPE to autonomously search the space of spin-state parameters. To test the efficacy of this technique, we compared it to results with human-guided SHAPE for asteroids 1992 UY4, 2000 RS11, and 2008 EV5. Bayesian optimization yielded similar spin state constraints within a factor of 3 less computer runtime.The shape modeling process could be further accelerated using a deep neural network to replace iterative fitting. We have implemented a neural network with a variational autoencoder (VAE), using a subset of known asteroid shapes and a large set of synthetic radar images as inputs to train the network. Conditioning the VAE in this manner allows the user to give the network a set of radar images and get a 3D shape model as an output. Additional development will be required to train a network to reliably render shapes from delay-Doppler images.This work was supported by NASA Ames, NVIDIA, Autodesk and the SETI Institute as part of the NASA Frontier Development Lab program.

Detection and recognition of simple spatial forms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, A. B.

1983-01-01

A model of human visual sensitivity to spatial patterns is constructed. The model predicts the visibility and discriminability of arbitrary two-dimensional monochrome images. The image is analyzed by a large array of linear feature sensors, which differ in spatial frequency, phase, orientation, and position in the visual field. All sensors have one octave frequency bandwidths, and increase in size linearly with eccentricity. Sensor responses are processed by an ideal Bayesian classifier, subject to uncertainty. The performance of the model is compared to that of the human observer in detecting and discriminating some simple images.

Bayesian Multiscale Modeling of Closed Curves in Point Clouds

PubMed Central

Gu, Kelvin; Pati, Debdeep; Dunson, David B.

2014-01-01

Modeling object boundaries based on image or point cloud data is frequently necessary in medical and scientific applications ranging from detecting tumor contours for targeted radiation therapy, to the classification of organisms based on their structural information. In low-contrast images or sparse and noisy point clouds, there is often insufficient data to recover local segments of the boundary in isolation. Thus, it becomes critical to model the entire boundary in the form of a closed curve. To achieve this, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model that expresses highly diverse 2D objects in the form of closed curves. The model is based on a novel multiscale deformation process. By relating multiple objects through a hierarchical formulation, we can successfully recover missing boundaries by borrowing structural information from similar objects at the appropriate scale. Furthermore, the model’s latent parameters help interpret the population, indicating dimensions of significant structural variability and also specifying a ‘central curve’ that summarizes the collection. Theoretical properties of our prior are studied in specific cases and efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are developed, evaluated through simulation examples and applied to panorex teeth images for modeling teeth contours and also to a brain tumor contour detection problem. PMID:25544786

Ambient Noise Tomography of central Java, with Transdimensional Bayesian Inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulhan, Zulfakriza; Saygin, Erdinc; Cummins, Phil; Widiyantoro, Sri; Nugraha, Andri Dian; Luehr, Birger-G.; Bodin, Thomas

2014-05-01

Delineating the crustal structure of central Java is crucial for understanding its complex tectonic setting. However, seismic imaging of the strong heterogeneity typical of such a tectonically active region can be challenging, particularly in the upper crust where velocity contrasts are strongest and steep body wave ray-paths provide poor resolution. We have applied ambient noise cross correlation of pair stations in central Java, Indonesia by using the MERapi Amphibious EXperiment (MERAMEX) dataset. The data were collected between May to October 2004. We used 120 of 134 temporary seismic stations for about 150 days of observation, which covered central Java. More than 5000 Rayleigh wave Green's function were extracted by cross-correlating the noise simultaneously recorded at available station pairs. We applied a fully nonlinear 2D Bayesian inversion technique to the retrieved travel times. Features in the derived tomographic images correlate well with previous studies, and some shallow structures that were not evident in previous studies are clearly imaged with Ambient Noise Tomography. The Kendeng Basin and several active volcanoes appear with very low group velocities, and anomalies with relatively high velocities can be interpreted in terms of crustal sutures and/or surface geological features.

Comparing Families of Dynamic Causal Models

PubMed Central

Penny, Will D.; Stephan, Klaas E.; Daunizeau, Jean; Rosa, Maria J.; Friston, Karl J.; Schofield, Thomas M.; Leff, Alex P.

2010-01-01

Mathematical models of scientific data can be formally compared using Bayesian model evidence. Previous applications in the biological sciences have mainly focussed on model selection in which one first selects the model with the highest evidence and then makes inferences based on the parameters of that model. This “best model” approach is very useful but can become brittle if there are a large number of models to compare, and if different subjects use different models. To overcome this shortcoming we propose the combination of two further approaches: (i) family level inference and (ii) Bayesian model averaging within families. Family level inference removes uncertainty about aspects of model structure other than the characteristic of interest. For example: What are the inputs to the system? Is processing serial or parallel? Is it linear or nonlinear? Is it mediated by a single, crucial connection? We apply Bayesian model averaging within families to provide inferences about parameters that are independent of further assumptions about model structure. We illustrate the methods using Dynamic Causal Models of brain imaging data. PMID:20300649

The Theory and Practice of Bayesian Image Labeling

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-08-01

simple. The intensity images are the results of many confounding factors - lighting, surface geometry , surface reflectance, and camera characteristics...related through the geometry of the surfaces in view. They are conditionally independent in the following sense: P (g,O Ifp) = P (g Ifl) P(O If,). (6.6a...different spatial resolution and projection geometry , or using DOG-type filters of various scales. We believe that the success of visual integration at

New subspace methods for ATR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Peng; Peng, Jing; Sims, S. Richard F.

2005-05-01

In ATR applications, each feature is a convolution of an image with a filter. It is important to use most discriminant features to produce compact representations. We propose two novel subspace methods for dimension reduction to address limitations associated with Fukunaga-Koontz Transform (FKT). The first method, Scatter-FKT, assumes that target is more homogeneous, while clutter can be anything other than target and anywhere. Thus, instead of estimating a clutter covariance matrix, Scatter-FKT computes a clutter scatter matrix that measures the spread of clutter from the target mean. We choose dimensions along which the difference in variation between target and clutter is most pronounced. When the target follows a Gaussian distribution, Scatter-FKT can be viewed as a generalization of FKT. The second method, Optimal Bayesian Subspace, is derived from the optimal Bayesian classifier. It selects dimensions such that the minimum Bayes error rate can be achieved. When both target and clutter follow Gaussian distributions, OBS computes optimal subspace representations. We compare our methods against FKT using character image as well as IR data.

Bayesian Deconvolution for Angular Super-Resolution in Forward-Looking Scanning Radar

PubMed Central

Zha, Yuebo; Huang, Yulin; Sun, Zhichao; Wang, Yue; Yang, Jianyu

2015-01-01

Scanning radar is of notable importance for ground surveillance, terrain mapping and disaster rescue. However, the angular resolution of a scanning radar image is poor compared to the achievable range resolution. This paper presents a deconvolution algorithm for angular super-resolution in scanning radar based on Bayesian theory, which states that the angular super-resolution can be realized by solving the corresponding deconvolution problem with the maximum a posteriori (MAP) criterion. The algorithm considers that the noise is composed of two mutually independent parts, i.e., a Gaussian signal-independent component and a Poisson signal-dependent component. In addition, the Laplace distribution is used to represent the prior information about the targets under the assumption that the radar image of interest can be represented by the dominant scatters in the scene. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed deconvolution algorithm has higher precision for angular super-resolution compared with the conventional algorithms, such as the Tikhonov regularization algorithm, the Wiener filter and the Richardson–Lucy algorithm. PMID:25806871

Gaussian Process Interpolation for Uncertainty Estimation in Image Registration

PubMed Central

Wachinger, Christian; Golland, Polina; Reuter, Martin; Wells, William

2014-01-01

Intensity-based image registration requires resampling images on a common grid to evaluate the similarity function. The uncertainty of interpolation varies across the image, depending on the location of resampled points relative to the base grid. We propose to perform Bayesian inference with Gaussian processes, where the covariance matrix of the Gaussian process posterior distribution estimates the uncertainty in interpolation. The Gaussian process replaces a single image with a distribution over images that we integrate into a generative model for registration. Marginalization over resampled images leads to a new similarity measure that includes the uncertainty of the interpolation. We demonstrate that our approach increases the registration accuracy and propose an efficient approximation scheme that enables seamless integration with existing registration methods. PMID:25333127

Bayesian coronal seismology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arregui, Iñigo

2018-01-01

In contrast to the situation in a laboratory, the study of the solar atmosphere has to be pursued without direct access to the physical conditions of interest. Information is therefore incomplete and uncertain and inference methods need to be employed to diagnose the physical conditions and processes. One of such methods, solar atmospheric seismology, makes use of observed and theoretically predicted properties of waves to infer plasma and magnetic field properties. A recent development in solar atmospheric seismology consists in the use of inversion and model comparison methods based on Bayesian analysis. In this paper, the philosophy and methodology of Bayesian analysis are first explained. Then, we provide an account of what has been achieved so far from the application of these techniques to solar atmospheric seismology and a prospect of possible future extensions.

Bayesian evidence computation for model selection in non-linear geoacoustic inference problems.

PubMed

Dettmer, Jan; Dosso, Stan E; Osler, John C

2010-12-01

This paper applies a general Bayesian inference approach, based on Bayesian evidence computation, to geoacoustic inversion of interface-wave dispersion data. Quantitative model selection is carried out by computing the evidence (normalizing constants) for several model parameterizations using annealed importance sampling. The resulting posterior probability density estimate is compared to estimates obtained from Metropolis-Hastings sampling to ensure consistent results. The approach is applied to invert interface-wave dispersion data collected on the Scotian Shelf, off the east coast of Canada for the sediment shear-wave velocity profile. Results are consistent with previous work on these data but extend the analysis to a rigorous approach including model selection and uncertainty analysis. The results are also consistent with core samples and seismic reflection measurements carried out in the area.

A Bayesian Approach for Evaluation of Determinants of Health System Efficiency Using Stochastic Frontier Analysis and Beta Regression.

PubMed

Şenel, Talat; Cengiz, Mehmet Ali

2016-01-01

In today's world, Public expenditures on health are one of the most important issues for governments. These increased expenditures are putting pressure on public budgets. Therefore, health policy makers have focused on the performance of their health systems and many countries have introduced reforms to improve the performance of their health systems. This study investigates the most important determinants of healthcare efficiency for OECD countries using second stage approach for Bayesian Stochastic Frontier Analysis (BSFA). There are two steps in this study. First we measure 29 OECD countries' healthcare efficiency by BSFA using the data from the OECD Health Database. At second stage, we expose the multiple relationships between the healthcare efficiency and characteristics of healthcare systems across OECD countries using Bayesian beta regression.

Aminoglycoside Therapy Manager: An Advanced Computer Program for Decision Support for Drug Dosing and Therapeutic Monitoring

PubMed Central

Lenert, Leslie; Lurie, Jon; Coleman, Robert; Klosterman, Heidrun; Blaschke, Terrence

1990-01-01

In this paper, we will describe an advanced drug dosing program, Aminoglycoside Therapy Manager that reasons using Bayesian pharmacokinetic modeling and symbolic modeling of patient status and drug response. Our design is similar to the design of the Digitalis Therapy Advisor program, but extends previous work by incorporating a Bayesian pharmacokinetic model, a “meta-level” analysis of drug concentrations to identify sampling errors and changes in pharmacokinetics, and including the results of the “meta-level” analysis in reasoning for dosing and therapeutic monitoring recommendations. The program is user friendly and runs on low cost general-purpose hardware. Validation studies show that the program is as accurate in predicting future drug concentrations as an expert using commercial Bayesian forecasting software.

Inferring consistent functional interaction patterns from natural stimulus FMRI data

PubMed Central

Sun, Jiehuan; Hu, Xintao; Huang, Xiu; Liu, Yang; Li, Kaiming; Li, Xiang; Han, Junwei; Guo, Lei

2014-01-01

There has been increasing interest in how the human brain responds to natural stimulus such as video watching in the neuroimaging field. Along this direction, this paper presents our effort in inferring consistent and reproducible functional interaction patterns under natural stimulus of video watching among known functional brain regions identified by task-based fMRI. Then, we applied and compared four statistical approaches, including Bayesian network modeling with searching algorithms: greedy equivalence search (GES), Peter and Clark (PC) analysis, independent multiple greedy equivalence search (IMaGES), and the commonly used Granger causality analysis (GCA), to infer consistent and reproducible functional interaction patterns among these brain regions. It is interesting that a number of reliable and consistent functional interaction patterns were identified by the GES, PC and IMaGES algorithms in different participating subjects when they watched multiple video shots of the same semantic category. These interaction patterns are meaningful given current neuroscience knowledge and are reasonably reproducible across different brains and video shots. In particular, these consistent functional interaction patterns are supported by structural connections derived from diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) data, suggesting the structural underpinnings of consistent functional interactions. Our work demonstrates that specific consistent patterns of functional interactions among relevant brain regions might reflect the brain's fundamental mechanisms of online processing and comprehension of video messages. PMID:22440644

SU-F-J-34: Automatic Target-Based Patient Positioning Framework for Image-Guided Radiotherapy in Prostate Cancer Treatment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sasahara, M; Arimura, H; Hirose, T

Purpose: Current image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) procedure is bonebased patient positioning, followed by subjective manual correction using cone beam computed tomography (CBCT). This procedure might cause the misalignment of the patient positioning. Automatic target-based patient positioning systems achieve the better reproducibility of patient setup. Our aim of this study was to develop an automatic target-based patient positioning framework for IGRT with CBCT images in prostate cancer treatment. Methods: Seventy-three CBCT images of 10 patients and 24 planning CT images with digital imaging and communications in medicine for radiotherapy (DICOM-RT) structures were used for this study. Our proposed framework started from themore » generation of probabilistic atlases of bone and prostate from 24 planning CT images and prostate contours, which were made in the treatment planning. Next, the gray-scale histograms of CBCT values within CTV regions in the planning CT images were obtained as the occurrence probability of the CBCT values. Then, CBCT images were registered to the atlases using a rigid registration with mutual information. Finally, prostate regions were estimated by applying the Bayesian inference to CBCT images with the probabilistic atlases and CBCT value occurrence probability. The proposed framework was evaluated by calculating the Euclidean distance of errors between two centroids of prostate regions determined by our method and ground truths of manual delineations by a radiation oncologist and a medical physicist on CBCT images for 10 patients. Results: The average Euclidean distance between the centroids of extracted prostate regions determined by our proposed method and ground truths was 4.4 mm. The average errors for each direction were 1.8 mm in anteroposterior direction, 0.6 mm in lateral direction and 2.1 mm in craniocaudal direction. Conclusion: Our proposed framework based on probabilistic atlases and Bayesian inference might be feasible to automatically determine prostate regions on CBCT images.« less

Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of Statistical Models with Missing Data

PubMed Central

ZHU, HONGTU; IBRAHIM, JOSEPH G.; TANG, NIANSHENG

2013-01-01

Methods for handling missing data depend strongly on the mechanism that generated the missing values, such as missing completely at random (MCAR) or missing at random (MAR), as well as other distributional and modeling assumptions at various stages. It is well known that the resulting estimates and tests may be sensitive to these assumptions as well as to outlying observations. In this paper, we introduce various perturbations to modeling assumptions and individual observations, and then develop a formal sensitivity analysis to assess these perturbations in the Bayesian analysis of statistical models with missing data. We develop a geometric framework, called the Bayesian perturbation manifold, to characterize the intrinsic structure of these perturbations. We propose several intrinsic influence measures to perform sensitivity analysis and quantify the effect of various perturbations to statistical models. We use the proposed sensitivity analysis procedure to systematically investigate the tenability of the non-ignorable missing at random (NMAR) assumption. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate our methods, and a dataset is analyzed to illustrate the use of our diagnostic measures. PMID:24753718

An efficient Bayesian meta-analysis approach for studying cross-phenotype genetic associations

PubMed Central

Majumdar, Arunabha; Haldar, Tanushree; Bhattacharya, Sourabh; Witte, John S.

2018-01-01

Simultaneous analysis of genetic associations with multiple phenotypes may reveal shared genetic susceptibility across traits (pleiotropy). For a locus exhibiting overall pleiotropy, it is important to identify which specific traits underlie this association. We propose a Bayesian meta-analysis approach (termed CPBayes) that uses summary-level data across multiple phenotypes to simultaneously measure the evidence of aggregate-level pleiotropic association and estimate an optimal subset of traits associated with the risk locus. This method uses a unified Bayesian statistical framework based on a spike and slab prior. CPBayes performs a fully Bayesian analysis by employing the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique Gibbs sampling. It takes into account heterogeneity in the size and direction of the genetic effects across traits. It can be applied to both cohort data and separate studies of multiple traits having overlapping or non-overlapping subjects. Simulations show that CPBayes can produce higher accuracy in the selection of associated traits underlying a pleiotropic signal than the subset-based meta-analysis ASSET. We used CPBayes to undertake a genome-wide pleiotropic association study of 22 traits in the large Kaiser GERA cohort and detected six independent pleiotropic loci associated with at least two phenotypes. This includes a locus at chromosomal region 1q24.2 which exhibits an association simultaneously with the risk of five different diseases: Dermatophytosis, Hemorrhoids, Iron Deficiency, Osteoporosis and Peripheral Vascular Disease. We provide an R-package ‘CPBayes’ implementing the proposed method. PMID:29432419

A Markov model for blind image separation by a mean-field EM algorithm.

PubMed

Tonazzini, Anna; Bedini, Luigi; Salerno, Emanuele

2006-02-01

This paper deals with blind separation of images from noisy linear mixtures with unknown coefficients, formulated as a Bayesian estimation problem. This is a flexible framework, where any kind of prior knowledge about the source images and the mixing matrix can be accounted for. In particular, we describe local correlation within the individual images through the use of Markov random field (MRF) image models. These are naturally suited to express the joint pdf of the sources in a factorized form, so that the statistical independence requirements of most independent component analysis approaches to blind source separation are retained. Our model also includes edge variables to preserve intensity discontinuities. MRF models have been proved to be very efficient in many visual reconstruction problems, such as blind image restoration, and allow separation and edge detection to be performed simultaneously. We propose an expectation-maximization algorithm with the mean field approximation to derive a procedure for estimating the mixing matrix, the sources, and their edge maps. We tested this procedure on both synthetic and real images, in the fully blind case (i.e., no prior information on mixing is exploited) and found that a source model accounting for local autocorrelation is able to increase robustness against noise, even space variant. Furthermore, when the model closely fits the source characteristics, independence is no longer a strict requirement, and cross-correlated sources can be separated, as well.

Mixture Modeling for Background and Sources Separation in x-ray Astronomical Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guglielmetti, Fabrizia; Fischer, Rainer; Dose, Volker

2004-11-01

A probabilistic technique for the joint estimation of background and sources in high-energy astrophysics is described. Bayesian probability theory is applied to gain insight into the coexistence of background and sources through a probabilistic two-component mixture model, which provides consistent uncertainties of background and sources. The present analysis is applied to ROSAT PSPC data (0.1-2.4 keV) in Survey Mode. A background map is modelled using a Thin-Plate spline. Source probability maps are obtained for each pixel (45 arcsec) independently and for larger correlation lengths, revealing faint and extended sources. We will demonstrate that the described probabilistic method allows for detection improvement of faint extended celestial sources compared to the Standard Analysis Software System (SASS) used for the production of the ROSAT All-Sky Survey (RASS) catalogues.

Individual differences in social information gathering revealed through Bayesian hierarchical models

PubMed Central

Pearson, John M.; Watson, Karli K.; Klein, Jeffrey T.; Ebitz, R. Becket; Platt, Michael L.

2013-01-01

As studies of the neural circuits underlying choice expand to include more complicated behaviors, analysis of behaviors elicited in laboratory paradigms has grown increasingly difficult. Social behaviors present a particular challenge, since inter- and intra-individual variation are expected to play key roles. However, due to limitations on data collection, studies must often choose between pooling data across all subjects or using individual subjects' data in isolation. Hierarchical models mediate between these two extremes by modeling individual subjects as drawn from a population distribution, allowing the population at large to serve as prior information about individuals' behavior. Here, we apply this method to data collected across multiple experimental sessions from a set of rhesus macaques performing a social information valuation task. We show that, while the values of social images vary markedly between individuals and between experimental sessions for the same individual, individuals also differentially value particular categories of social images. Furthermore, we demonstrate covariance between values for image categories within individuals and find evidence suggesting that magnitudes of stimulus values tend to diminish over time. PMID:24062635

Nonparametric Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Functional Brain Parcellation

PubMed Central

Lashkari, Danial; Sridharan, Ramesh; Vul, Edward; Hsieh, Po-Jang; Kanwisher, Nancy; Golland, Polina

2011-01-01

We develop a method for unsupervised analysis of functional brain images that learns group-level patterns of functional response. Our algorithm is based on a generative model that comprises two main layers. At the lower level, we express the functional brain response to each stimulus as a binary activation variable. At the next level, we define a prior over the sets of activation variables in all subjects. We use a Hierarchical Dirichlet Process as the prior in order to simultaneously learn the patterns of response that are shared across the group, and to estimate the number of these patterns supported by data. Inference based on this model enables automatic discovery and characterization of salient and consistent patterns in functional signals. We apply our method to data from a study that explores the response of the visual cortex to a collection of images. The discovered profiles of activation correspond to selectivity to a number of image categories such as faces, bodies, and scenes. More generally, our results appear superior to the results of alternative data-driven methods in capturing the category structure in the space of stimuli. PMID:21841977

A Bayesian Approach for Nonlinear Structural Equation Models with Dichotomous Variables Using Logit and Probit Links

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Sik-Yum; Song, Xin-Yuan; Cai, Jing-Heng

2010-01-01

Analysis of ordered binary and unordered binary data has received considerable attention in social and psychological research. This article introduces a Bayesian approach, which has several nice features in practical applications, for analyzing nonlinear structural equation models with dichotomous data. We demonstrate how to use the software…

Bayesian Statistics in Educational Research: A Look at the Current State of Affairs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

König, Christoph; van de Schoot, Rens

2018-01-01

The ability of a scientific discipline to build cumulative knowledge depends on its predominant method of data analysis. A steady accumulation of knowledge requires approaches which allow researchers to consider results from comparable prior research. Bayesian statistics is especially relevant for establishing a cumulative scientific discipline,…

Bayesian Finite Mixtures for Nonlinear Modeling of Educational Data.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tirri, Henry; And Others

A Bayesian approach for finding latent classes in data is discussed. The approach uses finite mixture models to describe the underlying structure in the data and demonstrate that the possibility of using full joint probability models raises interesting new prospects for exploratory data analysis. The concepts and methods discussed are illustrated…

Bayesian Analysis of Structural Equation Models with Nonlinear Covariates and Latent Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Song, Xin-Yuan; Lee, Sik-Yum

2006-01-01

In this article, we formulate a nonlinear structural equation model (SEM) that can accommodate covariates in the measurement equation and nonlinear terms of covariates and exogenous latent variables in the structural equation. The covariates can come from continuous or discrete distributions. A Bayesian approach is developed to analyze the…

Evidence of major genes affecting stress response in rainbow trout using Bayesian methods of complex segregation analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As a first step towards the genetic mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTL) affecting stress response variation in rainbow trout, we performed complex segregation analyses (CSA) fitting mixed inheritance models of plasma cortisol using Bayesian methods in large full-sib families of rainbow trout. ...

A Hierarchical Bayesian Procedure for Two-Mode Cluster Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeSarbo, Wayne S.; Fong, Duncan K. H.; Liechty, John; Saxton, M. Kim

2004-01-01

This manuscript introduces a new Bayesian finite mixture methodology for the joint clustering of row and column stimuli/objects associated with two-mode asymmetric proximity, dominance, or profile data. That is, common clusters are derived which partition both the row and column stimuli/objects simultaneously into the same derived set of clusters.…

Exact Bayesian p-values for a test of independence in a 2 × 2 contingency table with missing data.

PubMed

Lin, Yan; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Sinha, Debajyoti; Fitzmaurice, Garrett; Lipshultz, Steven

2017-01-01

Altham (Altham PME. Exact Bayesian analysis of a 2 × 2 contingency table, and Fisher's "exact" significance test. J R Stat Soc B 1969; 31: 261-269) showed that a one-sided p-value from Fisher's exact test of independence in a 2 × 2 contingency table is equal to the posterior probability of negative association in the 2 × 2 contingency table under a Bayesian analysis using an improper prior. We derive an extension of Fisher's exact test p-value in the presence of missing data, assuming the missing data mechanism is ignorable (i.e., missing at random or completely at random). Further, we propose Bayesian p-values for a test of independence in a 2 × 2 contingency table with missing data using alternative priors; we also present results from a simulation study exploring the Type I error rate and power of the proposed exact test p-values. An example, using data on the association between blood pressure and a cardiac enzyme, is presented to illustrate the methods.

Bayesian randomized clinical trials: From fixed to adaptive design.

PubMed

Yin, Guosheng; Lam, Chi Kin; Shi, Haolun

2017-08-01

Randomized controlled studies are the gold standard for phase III clinical trials. Using α-spending functions to control the overall type I error rate, group sequential methods are well established and have been dominating phase III studies. Bayesian randomized design, on the other hand, can be viewed as a complement instead of competitive approach to the frequentist methods. For the fixed Bayesian design, the hypothesis testing can be cast in the posterior probability or Bayes factor framework, which has a direct link to the frequentist type I error rate. Bayesian group sequential design relies upon Bayesian decision-theoretic approaches based on backward induction, which is often computationally intensive. Compared with the frequentist approaches, Bayesian methods have several advantages. The posterior predictive probability serves as a useful and convenient tool for trial monitoring, and can be updated at any time as the data accrue during the trial. The Bayesian decision-theoretic framework possesses a direct link to the decision making in the practical setting, and can be modeled more realistically to reflect the actual cost-benefit analysis during the drug development process. Other merits include the possibility of hierarchical modeling and the use of informative priors, which would lead to a more comprehensive utilization of information from both historical and longitudinal data. From fixed to adaptive design, we focus on Bayesian randomized controlled clinical trials and make extensive comparisons with frequentist counterparts through numerical studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exoplanet Biosignatures: Future Directions

PubMed Central

Bains, William; Cronin, Leroy; DasSarma, Shiladitya; Danielache, Sebastian; Domagal-Goldman, Shawn; Kacar, Betul; Kiang, Nancy Y.; Lenardic, Adrian; Reinhard, Christopher T.; Moore, William; Schwieterman, Edward W.; Shkolnik, Evgenya L.; Smith, Harrison B.

2018-01-01

Abstract We introduce a Bayesian method for guiding future directions for detection of life on exoplanets. We describe empirical and theoretical work necessary to place constraints on the relevant likelihoods, including those emerging from better understanding stellar environment, planetary climate and geophysics, geochemical cycling, the universalities of physics and chemistry, the contingencies of evolutionary history, the properties of life as an emergent complex system, and the mechanisms driving the emergence of life. We provide examples for how the Bayesian formalism could guide future search strategies, including determining observations to prioritize or deciding between targeted searches or larger lower resolution surveys to generate ensemble statistics and address how a Bayesian methodology could constrain the prior probability of life with or without a positive detection. Key Words: Exoplanets—Biosignatures—Life detection—Bayesian analysis. Astrobiology 18, 779–824. PMID:29938538

Population forecasts for Bangladesh, using a Bayesian methodology.

PubMed

Mahsin, Md; Hossain, Syed Shahadat

2012-12-01

Population projection for many developing countries could be quite a challenging task for the demographers mostly due to lack of availability of enough reliable data. The objective of this paper is to present an overview of the existing methods for population forecasting and to propose an alternative based on the Bayesian statistics, combining the formality of inference. The analysis has been made using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique for Bayesian methodology available with the software WinBUGS. Convergence diagnostic techniques available with the WinBUGS software have been applied to ensure the convergence of the chains necessary for the implementation of MCMC. The Bayesian approach allows for the use of observed data and expert judgements by means of appropriate priors, and a more realistic population forecasts, along with associated uncertainty, has been possible.

Exoplanet Biosignatures: Future Directions.

PubMed

Walker, Sara I; Bains, William; Cronin, Leroy; DasSarma, Shiladitya; Danielache, Sebastian; Domagal-Goldman, Shawn; Kacar, Betul; Kiang, Nancy Y; Lenardic, Adrian; Reinhard, Christopher T; Moore, William; Schwieterman, Edward W; Shkolnik, Evgenya L; Smith, Harrison B

2018-06-01

We introduce a Bayesian method for guiding future directions for detection of life on exoplanets. We describe empirical and theoretical work necessary to place constraints on the relevant likelihoods, including those emerging from better understanding stellar environment, planetary climate and geophysics, geochemical cycling, the universalities of physics and chemistry, the contingencies of evolutionary history, the properties of life as an emergent complex system, and the mechanisms driving the emergence of life. We provide examples for how the Bayesian formalism could guide future search strategies, including determining observations to prioritize or deciding between targeted searches or larger lower resolution surveys to generate ensemble statistics and address how a Bayesian methodology could constrain the prior probability of life with or without a positive detection. Key Words: Exoplanets-Biosignatures-Life detection-Bayesian analysis. Astrobiology 18, 779-824.

Bayesian Estimation of Small Effects in Exercise and Sports Science.

PubMed

Mengersen, Kerrie L; Drovandi, Christopher C; Robert, Christian P; Pyne, David B; Gore, Christopher J

2016-01-01

The aim of this paper is to provide a Bayesian formulation of the so-called magnitude-based inference approach to quantifying and interpreting effects, and in a case study example provide accurate probabilistic statements that correspond to the intended magnitude-based inferences. The model is described in the context of a published small-scale athlete study which employed a magnitude-based inference approach to compare the effect of two altitude training regimens (live high-train low (LHTL), and intermittent hypoxic exposure (IHE)) on running performance and blood measurements of elite triathletes. The posterior distributions, and corresponding point and interval estimates, for the parameters and associated effects and comparisons of interest, were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayesian analysis was shown to provide more direct probabilistic comparisons of treatments and able to identify small effects of interest. The approach avoided asymptotic assumptions and overcame issues such as multiple testing. Bayesian analysis of unscaled effects showed a probability of 0.96 that LHTL yields a substantially greater increase in hemoglobin mass than IHE, a 0.93 probability of a substantially greater improvement in running economy and a greater than 0.96 probability that both IHE and LHTL yield a substantially greater improvement in maximum blood lactate concentration compared to a Placebo. The conclusions are consistent with those obtained using a 'magnitude-based inference' approach that has been promoted in the field. The paper demonstrates that a fully Bayesian analysis is a simple and effective way of analysing small effects, providing a rich set of results that are straightforward to interpret in terms of probabilistic statements.

Bayesian Model for Matching the Radiometric Measurements of Aerospace and Field Ocean Color Sensors

PubMed Central

Salama, Mhd. Suhyb; Su, Zhongbo

2010-01-01

A Bayesian model is developed to match aerospace ocean color observation to field measurements and derive the spatial variability of match-up sites. The performance of the model is tested against populations of synthesized spectra and full and reduced resolutions of MERIS data. The model derived the scale difference between synthesized satellite pixel and point measurements with R2 > 0.88 and relative error < 21% in the spectral range from 400 nm to 695 nm. The sub-pixel variabilities of reduced resolution MERIS image are derived with less than 12% of relative errors in heterogeneous region. The method is generic and applicable to different sensors. PMID:22163615

On missing Data Treatment for degraded video and film archives: a survey and a new Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Kokaram, Anil C

2004-03-01

Image sequence restoration has been steadily gaining in importance with the increasing prevalence of visual digital media. The demand for content increases the pressure on archives to automate their restoration activities for preservation of the cultural heritage that they hold. There are many defects that affect archived visual material and one central issue is that of Dirt and Sparkle, or "Blotches." Research in archive restoration has been conducted for more than a decade and this paper places that material in context to highlight the advances made during that time. The paper also presents a new and simpler Bayesian framework that achieves joint processing of noise, missing data, and occlusion.

Use of limited data to construct Bayesian networks for probabilistic risk assessment.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groth, Katrina M.; Swiler, Laura Painton

2013-03-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a fundamental part of safety/quality assurance for nuclear power and nuclear weapons. Traditional PRA very effectively models complex hardware system risks using binary probabilistic models. However, traditional PRA models are not flexible enough to accommodate non-binary soft-causal factors, such as digital instrumentation&control, passive components, aging, common cause failure, and human errors. Bayesian Networks offer the opportunity to incorporate these risks into the PRA framework. This report describes the results of an early career LDRD project titled %E2%80%9CUse of Limited Data to Construct Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Risk Assessment%E2%80%9D. The goal of the work was tomore » establish the capability to develop Bayesian Networks from sparse data, and to demonstrate this capability by producing a data-informed Bayesian Network for use in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) as part of nuclear power plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). This report summarizes the research goal and major products of the research.« less

Applications of Bayesian Statistics to Problems in Gamma-Ray Bursts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meegan, Charles A.

1997-01-01

This presentation will describe two applications of Bayesian statistics to Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBS). The first attempts to quantify the evidence for a cosmological versus galactic origin of GRBs using only the observations of the dipole and quadrupole moments of the angular distribution of bursts. The cosmological hypothesis predicts isotropy, while the galactic hypothesis is assumed to produce a uniform probability distribution over positive values for these moments. The observed isotropic distribution indicates that the Bayes factor for the cosmological hypothesis over the galactic hypothesis is about 300. Another application of Bayesian statistics is in the estimation of chance associations of optical counterparts with galaxies. The Bayesian approach is preferred to frequentist techniques here because the Bayesian approach easily accounts for galaxy mass distributions and because one can incorporate three disjoint hypotheses: (1) bursts come from galactic centers, (2) bursts come from galaxies in proportion to luminosity, and (3) bursts do not come from external galaxies. This technique was used in the analysis of the optical counterpart to GRB970228.

Clinical high-resolution mapping of the proteoglycan-bound water fraction in articular cartilage of the human knee joint.

PubMed

Bouhrara, Mustapha; Reiter, David A; Sexton, Kyle W; Bergeron, Christopher M; Zukley, Linda M; Spencer, Richard G

2017-11-01

We applied our recently introduced Bayesian analytic method to achieve clinically-feasible in-vivo mapping of the proteoglycan water fraction (PgWF) of human knee cartilage with improved spatial resolution and stability as compared to existing methods. Multicomponent driven equilibrium single-pulse observation of T 1 and T 2 (mcDESPOT) datasets were acquired from the knees of two healthy young subjects and one older subject with previous knee injury. Each dataset was processed using Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) analysis incorporating a two-component tissue model. We assessed the performance and reproducibility of BMC and of the conventional analysis of stochastic region contraction (SRC) in the estimation of PgWF. Stability of the BMC analysis of PgWF was tested by comparing independent high-resolution (HR) datasets from each of the two young subjects. Unlike SRC, the BMC-derived maps from the two HR datasets were essentially identical. Furthermore, SRC maps showed substantial random variation in estimated PgWF, and mean values that differed from those obtained using BMC. In addition, PgWF maps derived from conventional low-resolution (LR) datasets exhibited partial volume and magnetic susceptibility effects. These artifacts were absent in HR PgWF images. Finally, our analysis showed regional variation in PgWF estimates, and substantially higher values in the younger subjects as compared to the older subject. BMC-mcDESPOT permits HR in-vivo mapping of PgWF in human knee cartilage in a clinically-feasible acquisition time. HR mapping reduces the impact of partial volume and magnetic susceptibility artifacts compared to LR mapping. Finally, BMC-mcDESPOT demonstrated excellent reproducibility in the determination of PgWF. Published by Elsevier Inc.

OGLE-2013-BLG-1761Lb: A Massive Planet around an M/K Dwarf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirao, Y.; Udalski, A.; Sumi, T.; Bennett, D. P.; Koshimoto, N.; Bond, I. A.; Rattenbury, N. J.; Suzuki, D.; and; Abe, F.; Asakura, Y.; Barry, R. K.; Bhattacharya, A.; Donachie, M.; Evans, P.; Fukui, A.; Itow, Y.; Li, M. C. A.; Ling, C. H.; Masuda, K.; Matsubara, Y.; Matsuo, T.; Muraki, Y.; Nagakane, M.; Ohnishi, K.; Ranc, C.; Saito, To.; Sharan, A.; Shibai, H.; Sullivan, D. J.; Tristram, P. J.; Yamada, T.; Yamada, T.; Yonehara, A.; MOA Collaboration; Poleski, R.; Skowron, J.; Mróz, P.; Szymański, M. K.; Kozłowski, S.; Pietrukowicz, P.; Soszyński, I.; Wyrzykowski, Ł.; Ulaczyk, K.; OGLE Collaboration

2017-07-01

We report the discovery and the analysis of the planetary microlensing event, OGLE-2013-BLG-1761. There are some degenerate solutions in this event because the planetary anomaly is only sparsely sampled. However, the detailed light-curve analysis ruled out all stellar binary models and shows the lens to be a planetary system. There is the so-called close/wide degeneracy in the solutions with the planet/host mass ratio of q ˜ (7.0 ± 2.0) × 10-3 and q ˜ (8.1 ± 2.6) × 10-3 with the projected separation in Einstein radius units of s = 0.95 (close) and s = 1.18 (wide), respectively. The microlens parallax effect is not detected, but the finite source effect is detected. Our Bayesian analysis indicates that the lens system is located DL=6.9-1.2+1.0 kpc away from us and the host star is an M/K dwarf with a mass of ML=0.33-0.19+0.32 M⊙ orbited by a super-Jupiter mass planet with a mass of mP=2.7-1.5+2.5 MJup at the projected separation of a\\perp=1.8-0.5+0.5 au. The preference of the large lens distance in the Bayesian analysis is due to the relatively large observed source star radius. The distance and other physical parameters may be constrained by the future high-resolution imaging by large ground telescopes or HST. If the estimated lens distance is correct, then this planet provides another sample for testing the claimed deficit of planets in the Galactic bulge.

OGLE-2013-BLG-1761Lb: A Massive Planet around an MK Dwarf

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hirao, Y.; Udalski, A.; Sumi, T.; Bennett, D. P.; Koshimoto, N.; Bond, I. A.; Rattenbury, N. J.; Suzuki, D.; Abe, F.; Asakura, Y.;

The evolutionary relationships and age of Homo naledi: An assessment using dated Bayesian phylogenetic methods.

PubMed

Dembo, Mana; Radovčić, Davorka; Garvin, Heather M; Laird, Myra F; Schroeder, Lauren; Scott, Jill E; Brophy, Juliet; Ackermann, Rebecca R; Musiba, Chares M; de Ruiter, Darryl J; Mooers, Arne Ø; Collard, Mark

2016-08-01

Homo naledi is a recently discovered species of fossil hominin from South Africa. A considerable amount is already known about H. naledi but some important questions remain unanswered. Here we report a study that addressed two of them: "Where does H. naledi fit in the hominin evolutionary tree?" and "How old is it?" We used a large supermatrix of craniodental characters for both early and late hominin species and Bayesian phylogenetic techniques to carry out three analyses. First, we performed a dated Bayesian analysis to generate estimates of the evolutionary relationships of fossil hominins including H. naledi. Then we employed Bayes factor tests to compare the strength of support for hypotheses about the relationships of H. naledi suggested by the best-estimate trees. Lastly, we carried out a resampling analysis to assess the accuracy of the age estimate for H. naledi yielded by the dated Bayesian analysis. The analyses strongly supported the hypothesis that H. naledi forms a clade with the other Homo species and Australopithecus sediba. The analyses were more ambiguous regarding the position of H. naledi within the (Homo, Au. sediba) clade. A number of hypotheses were rejected, but several others were not. Based on the available craniodental data, Homo antecessor, Asian Homo erectus, Homo habilis, Homo floresiensis, Homo sapiens, and Au. sediba could all be the sister taxon of H. naledi. According to the dated Bayesian analysis, the most likely age for H. naledi is 912 ka. This age estimate was supported by the resampling analysis. Our findings have a number of implications. Most notably, they support the assignment of the new specimens to Homo, cast doubt on the claim that H. naledi is simply a variant of H. erectus, and suggest H. naledi is younger than has been previously proposed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian cross-validation for model evaluation and selection, with application to the North American Breeding Bird Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, William; Sauer, John R.

2016-01-01

The analysis of ecological data has changed in two important ways over the last 15 years. The development and easy availability of Bayesian computational methods has allowed and encouraged the fitting of complex hierarchical models. At the same time, there has been increasing emphasis on acknowledging and accounting for model uncertainty. Unfortunately, the ability to fit complex models has outstripped the development of tools for model selection and model evaluation: familiar model selection tools such as Akaike's information criterion and the deviance information criterion are widely known to be inadequate for hierarchical models. In addition, little attention has been paid to the evaluation of model adequacy in context of hierarchical modeling, i.e., to the evaluation of fit for a single model. In this paper, we describe Bayesian cross-validation, which provides tools for model selection and evaluation. We describe the Bayesian predictive information criterion and a Bayesian approximation to the BPIC known as the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion. We illustrate the use of these tools for model selection, and the use of Bayesian cross-validation as a tool for model evaluation, using three large data sets from the North American Breeding Bird Survey.

Classifying emotion in Twitter using Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surya Asriadie, Muhammad; Syahrul Mubarok, Mohamad; Adiwijaya

2018-03-01

Language is used to express not only facts, but also emotions. Emotions are noticeable from behavior up to the social media statuses written by a person. Analysis of emotions in a text is done in a variety of media such as Twitter. This paper studies classification of emotions on twitter using Bayesian network because of its ability to model uncertainty and relationships between features. The result is two models based on Bayesian network which are Full Bayesian Network (FBN) and Bayesian Network with Mood Indicator (BNM). FBN is a massive Bayesian network where each word is treated as a node. The study shows the method used to train FBN is not very effective to create the best model and performs worse compared to Naive Bayes. F1-score for FBN is 53.71%, while for Naive Bayes is 54.07%. BNM is proposed as an alternative method which is based on the improvement of Multinomial Naive Bayes and has much lower computational complexity compared to FBN. Even though it’s not better compared to FBN, the resulting model successfully improves the performance of Multinomial Naive Bayes. F1-Score for Multinomial Naive Bayes model is 51.49%, while for BNM is 52.14%.

Estimation of parameter uncertainty for an activated sludge model using Bayesian inference: a comparison with the frequentist method.

PubMed

Zonta, Zivko J; Flotats, Xavier; Magrí, Albert

2014-08-01

The procedure commonly used for the assessment of the parameters included in activated sludge models (ASMs) relies on the estimation of their optimal value within a confidence region (i.e. frequentist inference). Once optimal values are estimated, parameter uncertainty is computed through the covariance matrix. However, alternative approaches based on the consideration of the model parameters as probability distributions (i.e. Bayesian inference), may be of interest. The aim of this work is to apply (and compare) both Bayesian and frequentist inference methods when assessing uncertainty for an ASM-type model, which considers intracellular storage and biomass growth, simultaneously. Practical identifiability was addressed exclusively considering respirometric profiles based on the oxygen uptake rate and with the aid of probabilistic global sensitivity analysis. Parameter uncertainty was thus estimated according to both the Bayesian and frequentist inferential procedures. Results were compared in order to evidence the strengths and weaknesses of both approaches. Since it was demonstrated that Bayesian inference could be reduced to a frequentist approach under particular hypotheses, the former can be considered as a more generalist methodology. Hence, the use of Bayesian inference is encouraged for tackling inferential issues in ASM environments.

[Reliability theory based on quality risk network analysis for Chinese medicine injection].

PubMed

Li, Zheng; Kang, Li-Yuan; Fan, Xiao-Hui

2014-08-01

A new risk analysis method based upon reliability theory was introduced in this paper for the quality risk management of Chinese medicine injection manufacturing plants. The risk events including both cause and effect ones were derived in the framework as nodes with a Bayesian network analysis approach. It thus transforms the risk analysis results from failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) into a Bayesian network platform. With its structure and parameters determined, the network can be used to evaluate the system reliability quantitatively with probabilistic analytical appraoches. Using network analysis tools such as GeNie and AgenaRisk, we are able to find the nodes that are most critical to influence the system reliability. The importance of each node to the system can be quantitatively evaluated by calculating the effect of the node on the overall risk, and minimization plan can be determined accordingly to reduce their influences and improve the system reliability. Using the Shengmai injection manufacturing plant of SZYY Ltd as a user case, we analyzed the quality risk with both static FMEA analysis and dynamic Bayesian Network analysis. The potential risk factors for the quality of Shengmai injection manufacturing were identified with the network analysis platform. Quality assurance actions were further defined to reduce the risk and improve the product quality.

Improving Landslide Susceptibility Modeling Using an Empirical Threshold Scheme for Excluding Landslide Deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, F.; Lai, J. S.; Chiang, S. H.

2015-12-01

Landslides are frequently triggered by typhoons and earthquakes in Taiwan, causing serious economic losses and human casualties. Remotely sensed images and geo-spatial data consisting of land-cover and environmental information have been widely used for producing landslide inventories and causative factors for slope stability analysis. Landslide susceptibility, on the other hand, can represent the spatial likelihood of landslide occurrence and is an important basis for landslide risk assessment. As multi-temporal satellite images become popular and affordable, they are commonly used to generate landslide inventories for subsequent analysis. However, it is usually difficult to distinguish different landslide sub-regions (scarp, debris flow, deposition etc.) directly from remote sensing imagery. Consequently, the extracted landslide extents using image-based visual interpretation and automatic detections may contain many depositions that may reduce the fidelity of the landslide susceptibility model. This study developed an empirical thresholding scheme based on terrain characteristics for eliminating depositions from detected landslide areas to improve landslide susceptibility modeling. In this study, Bayesian network classifier is utilized to build a landslide susceptibility model and to predict sequent rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the Shimen reservoir watershed located in northern Taiwan. Eleven causative factors are considered, including terrain slope, aspect, curvature, elevation, geology, land-use, NDVI, soil, distance to fault, river and road. Landslide areas detected using satellite images acquired before and after eight typhoons between 2004 to 2008 are collected as the main inventory for training and verification. In the analysis, previous landslide events are used as training data to predict the samples of the next event. The results are then compared with recorded landslide areas in the inventory to evaluate the accuracy. Experimental results demonstrate that the accuracies of landslide susceptibility analysis in all sequential predictions have been improved significantly after eliminating landslide depositions.

Bayesian approach to estimate AUC, partition coefficient and drug targeting index for studies with serial sacrifice design.

PubMed

Wang, Tianli; Baron, Kyle; Zhong, Wei; Brundage, Richard; Elmquist, William

2014-03-01

The current study presents a Bayesian approach to non-compartmental analysis (NCA), which provides the accurate and precise estimate of AUC 0 (∞) and any AUC 0 (∞) -based NCA parameter or derivation. In order to assess the performance of the proposed method, 1,000 simulated datasets were generated in different scenarios. A Bayesian method was used to estimate the tissue and plasma AUC 0 (∞) s and the tissue-to-plasma AUC 0 (∞) ratio. The posterior medians and the coverage of 95% credible intervals for the true parameter values were examined. The method was applied to laboratory data from a mice brain distribution study with serial sacrifice design for illustration. Bayesian NCA approach is accurate and precise in point estimation of the AUC 0 (∞) and the partition coefficient under a serial sacrifice design. It also provides a consistently good variance estimate, even considering the variability of the data and the physiological structure of the pharmacokinetic model. The application in the case study obtained a physiologically reasonable posterior distribution of AUC, with a posterior median close to the value estimated by classic Bailer-type methods. This Bayesian NCA approach for sparse data analysis provides statistical inference on the variability of AUC 0 (∞) -based parameters such as partition coefficient and drug targeting index, so that the comparison of these parameters following destructive sampling becomes statistically feasible.

Quantum state estimation when qubits are lost: a no-data-left-behind approach

DOE PAGES

Williams, Brian P.; Lougovski, Pavel

2017-04-06

We present an approach to Bayesian mean estimation of quantum states using hyperspherical parametrization and an experiment-specific likelihood which allows utilization of all available data, even when qubits are lost. With this method, we report the first closed-form Bayesian mean and maximum likelihood estimates for the ideal single qubit. Due to computational constraints, we utilize numerical sampling to determine the Bayesian mean estimate for a photonic two-qubit experiment in which our novel analysis reduces burdens associated with experimental asymmetries and inefficiencies. This method can be applied to quantum states of any dimension and experimental complexity.

Potential of SNP markers for the characterization of Brazilian cassava germplasm.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Eder Jorge; Ferreira, Cláudia Fortes; da Silva Santos, Vanderlei; de Jesus, Onildo Nunes; Oliveira, Gilmara Alvarenga Fachardo; da Silva, Maiane Suzarte

2014-06-01

High-throughput markers, such as SNPs, along with different methodologies were used to evaluate the applicability of the Bayesian approach and the multivariate analysis in structuring the genetic diversity in cassavas. The objective of the present work was to evaluate the diversity and genetic structure of the largest cassava germplasm bank in Brazil. Complementary methodological approaches such as discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC), Bayesian analysis and molecular analysis of variance (AMOVA) were used to understand the structure and diversity of 1,280 accessions genotyped using 402 single nucleotide polymorphism markers. The genetic diversity (0.327) and the average observed heterozygosity (0.322) were high considering the bi-allelic markers. In terms of population, the presence of a complex genetic structure was observed indicating the formation of 30 clusters by DAPC and 34 clusters by Bayesian analysis. Both methodologies presented difficulties and controversies in terms of the allocation of some accessions to specific clusters. However, the clusters suggested by the DAPC analysis seemed to be more consistent for presenting higher probability of allocation of the accessions within the clusters. Prior information related to breeding patterns and geographic origins of the accessions were not sufficient for providing clear differentiation between the clusters according to the AMOVA analysis. In contrast, the F ST was maximized when considering the clusters suggested by the Bayesian and DAPC analyses. The high frequency of germplasm exchange between producers and the subsequent alteration of the name of the same material may be one of the causes of the low association between genetic diversity and geographic origin. The results of this study may benefit cassava germplasm conservation programs, and contribute to the maximization of genetic gains in breeding programs.

Hierarchical Processing of Auditory Objects in Humans

PubMed Central

Kumar, Sukhbinder; Stephan, Klaas E; Warren, Jason D; Friston, Karl J; Griffiths, Timothy D

2007-01-01

This work examines the computational architecture used by the brain during the analysis of the spectral envelope of sounds, an important acoustic feature for defining auditory objects. Dynamic causal modelling and Bayesian model selection were used to evaluate a family of 16 network models explaining functional magnetic resonance imaging responses in the right temporal lobe during spectral envelope analysis. The models encode different hypotheses about the effective connectivity between Heschl's Gyrus (HG), containing the primary auditory cortex, planum temporale (PT), and superior temporal sulcus (STS), and the modulation of that coupling during spectral envelope analysis. In particular, we aimed to determine whether information processing during spectral envelope analysis takes place in a serial or parallel fashion. The analysis provides strong support for a serial architecture with connections from HG to PT and from PT to STS and an increase of the HG to PT connection during spectral envelope analysis. The work supports a computational model of auditory object processing, based on the abstraction of spectro-temporal “templates” in the PT before further analysis of the abstracted form in anterior temporal lobe areas. PMID:17542641

Detection of Low-order Curves in Images using Biologically-plausible Hardware

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-29

the intersections of iso-eccentricity and iso-polar contours were entered into the computer via a graphics tablet . In regions where there was...functional mri . Cerebral Cortex, 7:181 – 192, 1997. [25] Jacob Feldman. Bayesian contour integration. Perception and Psychophysics, 63:1171 – 1182, 2001. [26

Information Processing in Medical Imaging Meeting (IPMI)

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-09-30

Rousy. France 8:40 Bayesian Identification of a Physiological Model in Dynamic Scintigraphic Data M. Samal . M. Karny. D. Zahalka. Charles Univ.. Prague...5986 200 1st St. SW xcpan@rainbow.uchicago.edu Rochester, MN 55905 USA (Ph) 507-284-4937 (Fax) 507-284-1632 rar@mayo.edu Glynn Robinson Martin Samal

Competing risk models in reliability systems, a weibull distribution model with bayesian analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iskandar, Ismed; Satria Gondokaryono, Yudi

2016-02-01

In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range between the true value and the maximum likelihood estimated value lines.

Uncertainty Quantification of Hypothesis Testing for the Integrated Knowledge Engine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cuellar, Leticia

2012-05-31

The Integrated Knowledge Engine (IKE) is a tool of Bayesian analysis, based on Bayesian Belief Networks or Bayesian networks for short. A Bayesian network is a graphical model (directed acyclic graph) that allows representing the probabilistic structure of many variables assuming a localized type of dependency called the Markov property. The Markov property in this instance makes any node or random variable to be independent of any non-descendant node given information about its parent. A direct consequence of this property is that it is relatively easy to incorporate new evidence and derive the appropriate consequences, which in general is notmore » an easy or feasible task. Typically we use Bayesian networks as predictive models for a small subset of the variables, either the leave nodes or the root nodes. In IKE, since most applications deal with diagnostics, we are interested in predicting the likelihood of the root nodes given new observations on any of the children nodes. The root nodes represent the various possible outcomes of the analysis, and an important problem is to determine when we have gathered enough evidence to lean toward one of these particular outcomes. This document presents criteria to decide when the evidence gathered is sufficient to draw a particular conclusion or decide in favor of a particular outcome by quantifying the uncertainty in the conclusions that are drawn from the data. The material in this document is organized as follows: Section 2 presents briefly a forensics Bayesian network, and we explore evaluating the information provided by new evidence by looking first at the posterior distribution of the nodes of interest, and then at the corresponding posterior odds ratios. Section 3 presents a third alternative: Bayes Factors. In section 4 we finalize by showing the relation between the posterior odds ratios and Bayes factors and showing examples these cases, and in section 5 we conclude by providing clear guidelines of how to use these for the type of Bayesian networks used in IKE.« less

Predicting individual brain functional connectivity using a Bayesian hierarchical model.

PubMed

Dai, Tian; Guo, Ying

2017-02-15

Network-oriented analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), especially resting-state fMRI, has revealed important association between abnormal connectivity and brain disorders such as schizophrenia, major depression and Alzheimer's disease. Imaging-based brain connectivity measures have become a useful tool for investigating the pathophysiology, progression and treatment response of psychiatric disorders and neurodegenerative diseases. Recent studies have started to explore the possibility of using functional neuroimaging to help predict disease progression and guide treatment selection for individual patients. These studies provide the impetus to develop statistical methodology that would help provide predictive information on disease progression-related or treatment-related changes in neural connectivity. To this end, we propose a prediction method based on Bayesian hierarchical model that uses individual's baseline fMRI scans, coupled with relevant subject characteristics, to predict the individual's future functional connectivity. A key advantage of the proposed method is that it can improve the accuracy of individualized prediction of connectivity by combining information from both group-level connectivity patterns that are common to subjects with similar characteristics as well as individual-level connectivity features that are particular to the specific subject. Furthermore, our method also offers statistical inference tools such as predictive intervals that help quantify the uncertainty or variability of the predicted outcomes. The proposed prediction method could be a useful approach to predict the changes in individual patient's brain connectivity with the progression of a disease. It can also be used to predict a patient's post-treatment brain connectivity after a specified treatment regimen. Another utility of the proposed method is that it can be applied to test-retest imaging data to develop a more reliable estimator for individual functional connectivity. We show there exists a nice connection between our proposed estimator and a recently developed shrinkage estimator of connectivity measures in the neuroimaging community. We develop an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for estimation of the proposed Bayesian hierarchical model. Simulations studies are performed to evaluate the accuracy of our proposed prediction methods. We illustrate the application of the methods with two data examples: the longitudinal resting-state fMRI from ADNI2 study and the test-retest fMRI data from Kirby21 study. In both the simulation studies and the fMRI data applications, we demonstrate that the proposed methods provide more accurate prediction and more reliable estimation of individual functional connectivity as compared with alternative methods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Missing value imputation: with application to handwriting data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhen; Srihari, Sargur N.

2015-01-01

Missing values make pattern analysis difficult, particularly with limited available data. In longitudinal research, missing values accumulate, thereby aggravating the problem. Here we consider how to deal with temporal data with missing values in handwriting analysis. In the task of studying development of individuality of handwriting, we encountered the fact that feature values are missing for several individuals at several time instances. Six algorithms, i.e., random imputation, mean imputation, most likely independent value imputation, and three methods based on Bayesian network (static Bayesian network, parameter EM, and structural EM), are compared with children's handwriting data. We evaluate the accuracy and robustness of the algorithms under different ratios of missing data and missing values, and useful conclusions are given. Specifically, static Bayesian network is used for our data which contain around 5% missing data to provide adequate accuracy and low computational cost.

Bayesian estimation of dynamic matching function for U-V analysis in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kyo, Koki; Noda, Hideo; Kitagawa, Genshiro

2012-05-01

In this paper we propose a Bayesian method for analyzing unemployment dynamics. We derive a Beveridge curve for unemployment and vacancy (U-V) analysis from a Bayesian model based on a labor market matching function. In our framework, the efficiency of matching and the elasticities of new hiring with respect to unemployment and vacancy are regarded as time varying parameters. To construct a flexible model and obtain reasonable estimates in an underdetermined estimation problem, we treat the time varying parameters as random variables and introduce smoothness priors. The model is then described in a state space representation, enabling the parameter estimation to be carried out using Kalman filter and fixed interval smoothing. In such a representation, dynamic features of the cyclic unemployment rate and the structural-frictional unemployment rate can be accurately captured.

Are Student Evaluations of Teaching Effectiveness Valid for Measuring Student Learning Outcomes in Business Related Classes? A Neural Network and Bayesian Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Galbraith, Craig S.; Merrill, Gregory B.; Kline, Doug M.

2012-01-01

In this study we investigate the underlying relational structure between student evaluations of teaching effectiveness (SETEs) and achievement of student learning outcomes in 116 business related courses. Utilizing traditional statistical techniques, a neural network analysis and a Bayesian data reduction and classification algorithm, we find…

Designing a Mobile Training System in Rural Areas with Bayesian Factor Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Omidi Najafabadi, Maryam; Mirdamadi, Seyed Mehdi; Payandeh Najafabadi, Amir Teimour

2014-01-01

The facts that the wireless technologies (1) are more convenient; and (2) need less skill than desktop computers, play a crucial role to decrease digital gap in rural areas. This study employed the Bayesian Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) to design a mobile training system in rural areas of Iran. It categorized challenges, potential, and…

Coronal loop seismology using damping of standing kink oscillations by mode coupling. II. additional physical effects and Bayesian analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascoe, D. J.; Anfinogentov, S.; Nisticò, G.; Goddard, C. R.; Nakariakov, V. M.

2017-04-01

Context. The strong damping of kink oscillations of coronal loops can be explained by mode coupling. The damping envelope depends on the transverse density profile of the loop. Observational measurements of the damping envelope have been used to determine the transverse loop structure which is important for understanding other physical processes such as heating. Aims: The general damping envelope describing the mode coupling of kink waves consists of a Gaussian damping regime followed by an exponential damping regime. Recent observational detection of these damping regimes has been employed as a seismological tool. We extend the description of the damping behaviour to account for additional physical effects, namely a time-dependent period of oscillation, the presence of additional longitudinal harmonics, and the decayless regime of standing kink oscillations. Methods: We examine four examples of standing kink oscillations observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). We use forward modelling of the loop position and investigate the dependence on the model parameters using Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. Results: Our improvements to the physical model combined with the use of Bayesian inference and MCMC produce improved estimates of model parameters and their uncertainties. Calculation of the Bayes factor also allows us to compare the suitability of different physical models. We also use a new method based on spline interpolation of the zeroes of the oscillation to accurately describe the background trend of the oscillating loop. Conclusions: This powerful and robust method allows for accurate seismology of coronal loops, in particular the transverse density profile, and potentially reveals additional physical effects.

Detecting spatio-temporal modes in multivariate data by entropy field decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, Lawrence R.; Galinsky, Vitaly L.

2016-09-01

A new data analysis method that addresses a general problem of detecting spatio-temporal variations in multivariate data is presented. The method utilizes two recent and complimentary general approaches to data analysis, information field theory (IFT) and entropy spectrum pathways (ESPs). Both methods reformulate and incorporate Bayesian theory, thus use prior information to uncover underlying structure of the unknown signal. Unification of ESP and IFT creates an approach that is non-Gaussian and nonlinear by construction and is found to produce unique spatio-temporal modes of signal behavior that can be ranked according to their significance, from which space-time trajectories of parameter variations can be constructed and quantified. Two brief examples of real world applications of the theory to the analysis of data bearing completely different, unrelated nature, lacking any underlying similarity, are also presented. The first example provides an analysis of resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging data that allowed us to create an efficient and accurate computational method for assessing and categorizing brain activity. The second example demonstrates the potential of the method in the application to the analysis of a strong atmospheric storm circulation system during the complicated stage of tornado development and formation using data recorded by a mobile Doppler radar. Reference implementation of the method will be made available as a part of the QUEST toolkit that is currently under development at the Center for Scientific Computation in Imaging.

Multivariate Bayesian analysis of Gaussian, right censored Gaussian, ordered categorical and binary traits using Gibbs sampling

PubMed Central

Korsgaard, Inge Riis; Lund, Mogens Sandø; Sorensen, Daniel; Gianola, Daniel; Madsen, Per; Jensen, Just

2003-01-01

A fully Bayesian analysis using Gibbs sampling and data augmentation in a multivariate model of Gaussian, right censored, and grouped Gaussian traits is described. The grouped Gaussian traits are either ordered categorical traits (with more than two categories) or binary traits, where the grouping is determined via thresholds on the underlying Gaussian scale, the liability scale. Allowances are made for unequal models, unknown covariance matrices and missing data. Having outlined the theory, strategies for implementation are reviewed. These include joint sampling of location parameters; efficient sampling from the fully conditional posterior distribution of augmented data, a multivariate truncated normal distribution; and sampling from the conditional inverse Wishart distribution, the fully conditional posterior distribution of the residual covariance matrix. Finally, a simulated dataset was analysed to illustrate the methodology. This paper concentrates on a model where residuals associated with liabilities of the binary traits are assumed to be independent. A Bayesian analysis using Gibbs sampling is outlined for the model where this assumption is relaxed. PMID:12633531

Multivariate Copula Analysis Toolbox (MvCAT): Describing dependence and underlying uncertainty using a Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadegh, Mojtaba; Ragno, Elisa; AghaKouchak, Amir

2017-06-01

We present a newly developed Multivariate Copula Analysis Toolbox (MvCAT) which includes a wide range of copula families with different levels of complexity. MvCAT employs a Bayesian framework with a residual-based Gaussian likelihood function for inferring copula parameters and estimating the underlying uncertainties. The contribution of this paper is threefold: (a) providing a Bayesian framework to approximate the predictive uncertainties of fitted copulas, (b) introducing a hybrid-evolution Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach designed for numerical estimation of the posterior distribution of copula parameters, and (c) enabling the community to explore a wide range of copulas and evaluate them relative to the fitting uncertainties. We show that the commonly used local optimization methods for copula parameter estimation often get trapped in local minima. The proposed method, however, addresses this limitation and improves describing the dependence structure. MvCAT also enables evaluation of uncertainties relative to the length of record, which is fundamental to a wide range of applications such as multivariate frequency analysis.

Bayesian inference of interaction properties of noisy dynamical systems with time-varying coupling: capabilities and limitations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilting, Jens; Lehnertz, Klaus

2015-08-01

We investigate a recently published analysis framework based on Bayesian inference for the time-resolved characterization of interaction properties of noisy, coupled dynamical systems. It promises wide applicability and a better time resolution than well-established methods. At the example of representative model systems, we show that the analysis framework has the same weaknesses as previous methods, particularly when investigating interacting, structurally different non-linear oscillators. We also inspect the tracking of time-varying interaction properties and propose a further modification of the algorithm, which improves the reliability of obtained results. We exemplarily investigate the suitability of this algorithm to infer strength and direction of interactions between various regions of the human brain during an epileptic seizure. Within the limitations of the applicability of this analysis tool, we show that the modified algorithm indeed allows a better time resolution through Bayesian inference when compared to previous methods based on least square fits.

Bayesian forecasting and uncertainty quantifying of stream flows using Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hongrui; Wang, Cheng; Wang, Ying; Gao, Xiong; Yu, Chen

2017-06-01

This paper presents a Bayesian approach using Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm and applies this method for daily river flow rate forecast and uncertainty quantification for Zhujiachuan River using data collected from Qiaotoubao Gage Station and other 13 gage stations in Zhujiachuan watershed in China. The proposed method is also compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for parameter estimation and quantification of associated uncertainties. While the Bayesian method performs similarly in estimating the mean value of daily flow rate, it performs over the conventional MLE method on uncertainty quantification, providing relatively narrower reliable interval than the MLE confidence interval and thus more precise estimation by using the related information from regional gage stations. The Bayesian MCMC method might be more favorable in the uncertainty analysis and risk management.

Bayesian estimates of the incidence of rare cancers in Europe.

PubMed

Botta, Laura; Capocaccia, Riccardo; Trama, Annalisa; Herrmann, Christian; Salmerón, Diego; De Angelis, Roberta; Mallone, Sandra; Bidoli, Ettore; Marcos-Gragera, Rafael; Dudek-Godeau, Dorota; Gatta, Gemma; Cleries, Ramon

2018-04-21

The RARECAREnet project has updated the estimates of the burden of the 198 rare cancers in each European country. Suspecting that scant data could affect the reliability of statistical analysis, we employed a Bayesian approach to estimate the incidence of these cancers. We analyzed about 2,000,000 rare cancers diagnosed in 2000-2007 provided by 83 population-based cancer registries from 27 European countries. We considered European incidence rates (IRs), calculated over all the data available in RARECAREnet, as a valid a priori to merge with country-specific observed data. Therefore we provided (1) Bayesian estimates of IRs and the yearly numbers of cases of rare cancers in each country; (2) the expected time (T) in years needed to observe one new case; and (3) practical criteria to decide when to use the Bayesian approach. Bayesian and classical estimates did not differ much; substantial differences (>10%) ranged from 77 rare cancers in Iceland to 14 in England. The smaller the population the larger the number of rare cancers needing a Bayesian approach. Bayesian estimates were useful for cancers with fewer than 150 observed cases in a country during the study period; this occurred mostly when the population of the country is small. For the first time the Bayesian estimates of IRs and the yearly expected numbers of cases for each rare cancer in each individual European country were calculated. Moreover, the indicator T is useful to convey incidence estimates for exceptionally rare cancers and in small countries; it far exceeds the professional lifespan of a medical doctor. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automated recognition and characterization of solar active regions based on the SOHO/MDI images

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pap, J. M.; Turmon, M.; Mukhtar, S.; Bogart, R.; Ulrich, R.; Froehlich, C.; Wehrli, C.

1997-01-01

The first results of a new method to identify and characterize the various surface structures on the sun, which may contribute to the changes in solar total and spectral irradiance, are shown. The full disk magnetograms (1024 x 1024 pixels) of the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) experiment onboard SOHO are analyzed. Use of a Bayesian inference scheme allows objective, uniform, automated processing of a long sequence of images. The main goal is to identify the solar magnetic features causing irradiance changes. The results presented are based on a pilot time interval of August 1996.

Joint analysis of input and parametric uncertainties in watershed water quality modeling: A formal Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Feng; Zheng, Yi

2018-06-01

Significant Input uncertainty is a major source of error in watershed water quality (WWQ) modeling. It remains challenging to address the input uncertainty in a rigorous Bayesian framework. This study develops the Bayesian Analysis of Input and Parametric Uncertainties (BAIPU), an approach for the joint analysis of input and parametric uncertainties through a tight coupling of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). The formal likelihood function for this approach is derived considering a lag-1 autocorrelated, heteroscedastic, and Skew Exponential Power (SEP) distributed error model. A series of numerical experiments were performed based on a synthetic nitrate pollution case and on a real study case in the Newport Bay Watershed, California. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM(ZS)) were used as the representative WWQ model and MCMC algorithm, respectively. The major findings include the following: (1) the BAIPU can be implemented and used to appropriately identify the uncertain parameters and characterize the predictive uncertainty; (2) the compensation effect between the input and parametric uncertainties can seriously mislead the modeling based management decisions, if the input uncertainty is not explicitly accounted for; (3) the BAIPU accounts for the interaction between the input and parametric uncertainties and therefore provides more accurate calibration and uncertainty results than a sequential analysis of the uncertainties; and (4) the BAIPU quantifies the credibility of different input assumptions on a statistical basis and can be implemented as an effective inverse modeling approach to the joint inference of parameters and inputs.

Social deprivation and population density are not associated with small area risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

PubMed

Rooney, James P K; Tobin, Katy; Crampsie, Arlene; Vajda, Alice; Heverin, Mark; McLaughlin, Russell; Staines, Anthony; Hardiman, Orla

2015-10-01

Evidence of an association between areal ALS risk and population density has been previously reported. We aim to examine ALS spatial incidence in Ireland using small areas, to compare this analysis with our previous analysis of larger areas and to examine the associations between population density, social deprivation and ALS incidence. Residential area social deprivation has not been previously investigated as a risk factor for ALS. Using the Irish ALS register, we included all cases of ALS diagnosed in Ireland from 1995-2013. 2006 census data was used to calculate age and sex standardised expected cases per small area. Social deprivation was assessed using the pobalHP deprivation index. Bayesian smoothing was used to calculate small area relative risk for ALS, whilst cluster analysis was performed using SaTScan. The effects of population density and social deprivation were tested in two ways: (1) as covariates in the Bayesian spatial model; (2) via post-Bayesian regression. 1701 cases were included. Bayesian smoothed maps of relative risk at small area resolution matched closely to our previous analysis at a larger area resolution. Cluster analysis identified two areas of significant low risk. These areas did not correlate with population density or social deprivation indices. Two areas showing low frequency of ALS have been identified in the Republic of Ireland. These areas do not correlate with population density or residential area social deprivation, indicating that other reasons, such as genetic admixture may account for the observed findings. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian state space models for dynamic genetic network construction across multiple tissues.

PubMed

Liang, Yulan; Kelemen, Arpad

2016-08-01

Construction of gene-gene interaction networks and potential pathways is a challenging and important problem in genomic research for complex diseases while estimating the dynamic changes of the temporal correlations and non-stationarity are the keys in this process. In this paper, we develop dynamic state space models with hierarchical Bayesian settings to tackle this challenge for inferring the dynamic profiles and genetic networks associated with disease treatments. We treat both the stochastic transition matrix and the observation matrix time-variant and include temporal correlation structures in the covariance matrix estimations in the multivariate Bayesian state space models. The unevenly spaced short time courses with unseen time points are treated as hidden state variables. Hierarchical Bayesian approaches with various prior and hyper-prior models with Monte Carlo Markov Chain and Gibbs sampling algorithms are used to estimate the model parameters and the hidden state variables. We apply the proposed Hierarchical Bayesian state space models to multiple tissues (liver, skeletal muscle, and kidney) Affymetrix time course data sets following corticosteroid (CS) drug administration. Both simulation and real data analysis results show that the genomic changes over time and gene-gene interaction in response to CS treatment can be well captured by the proposed models. The proposed dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian state space modeling approaches could be expanded and applied to other large scale genomic data, such as next generation sequence (NGS) combined with real time and time varying electronic health record (EHR) for more comprehensive and robust systematic and network based analysis in order to transform big biomedical data into predictions and diagnostics for precision medicine and personalized healthcare with better decision making and patient outcomes.

On the uncertainty in single molecule fluorescent lifetime and energy emission measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Emery N.; Zhang, Zhenhua; Mccollom, Alex D.

1995-01-01

Time-correlated single photon counting has recently been combined with mode-locked picosecond pulsed excitation to measure the fluorescent lifetimes and energy emissions of single molecules in a flow stream. Maximum likelihood (ML) and least square methods agree and are optimal when the number of detected photons is large however, in single molecule fluorescence experiments the number of detected photons can be less than 20, 67% of those can be noise and the detection time is restricted to 10 nanoseconds. Under the assumption that the photon signal and background noise are two independent inhomogeneous poisson processes, we derive the exact joint arrival time probably density of the photons collected in a single counting experiment performed in the presence of background noise. The model obviates the need to bin experimental data for analysis, and makes it possible to analyze formally the effect of background noise on the photon detection experiment using both ML or Bayesian methods. For both methods we derive the joint and marginal probability densities of the fluorescent lifetime and fluorescent emission. the ML and Bayesian methods are compared in an analysis of simulated single molecule fluorescence experiments of Rhodamine 110 using different combinations of expected background nose and expected fluorescence emission. While both the ML or Bayesian procedures perform well for analyzing fluorescence emissions, the Bayesian methods provide more realistic measures of uncertainty in the fluorescent lifetimes. The Bayesian methods would be especially useful for measuring uncertainty in fluorescent lifetime estimates in current single molecule flow stream experiments where the expected fluorescence emission is low. Both the ML and Bayesian algorithms can be automated for applications in molecular biology.

On the Uncertainty in Single Molecule Fluorescent Lifetime and Energy Emission Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Emery N.; Zhang, Zhenhua; McCollom, Alex D.

1996-01-01

Time-correlated single photon counting has recently been combined with mode-locked picosecond pulsed excitation to measure the fluorescent lifetimes and energy emissions of single molecules in a flow stream. Maximum likelihood (ML) and least squares methods agree and are optimal when the number of detected photons is large, however, in single molecule fluorescence experiments the number of detected photons can be less than 20, 67 percent of those can be noise, and the detection time is restricted to 10 nanoseconds. Under the assumption that the photon signal and background noise are two independent inhomogeneous Poisson processes, we derive the exact joint arrival time probability density of the photons collected in a single counting experiment performed in the presence of background noise. The model obviates the need to bin experimental data for analysis, and makes it possible to analyze formally the effect of background noise on the photon detection experiment using both ML or Bayesian methods. For both methods we derive the joint and marginal probability densities of the fluorescent lifetime and fluorescent emission. The ML and Bayesian methods are compared in an analysis of simulated single molecule fluorescence experiments of Rhodamine 110 using different combinations of expected background noise and expected fluorescence emission. While both the ML or Bayesian procedures perform well for analyzing fluorescence emissions, the Bayesian methods provide more realistic measures of uncertainty in the fluorescent lifetimes. The Bayesian methods would be especially useful for measuring uncertainty in fluorescent lifetime estimates in current single molecule flow stream experiments where the expected fluorescence emission is low. Both the ML and Bayesian algorithms can be automated for applications in molecular biology.

Bayesian Analysis of Biogeography when the Number of Areas is Large

PubMed Central

Landis, Michael J.; Matzke, Nicholas J.; Moore, Brian R.; Huelsenbeck, John P.

2013-01-01

Historical biogeography is increasingly studied from an explicitly statistical perspective, using stochastic models to describe the evolution of species range as a continuous-time Markov process of dispersal between and extinction within a set of discrete geographic areas. The main constraint of these methods is the computational limit on the number of areas that can be specified. We propose a Bayesian approach for inferring biogeographic history that extends the application of biogeographic models to the analysis of more realistic problems that involve a large number of areas. Our solution is based on a “data-augmentation” approach, in which we first populate the tree with a history of biogeographic events that is consistent with the observed species ranges at the tips of the tree. We then calculate the likelihood of a given history by adopting a mechanistic interpretation of the instantaneous-rate matrix, which specifies both the exponential waiting times between biogeographic events and the relative probabilities of each biogeographic change. We develop this approach in a Bayesian framework, marginalizing over all possible biogeographic histories using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Besides dramatically increasing the number of areas that can be accommodated in a biogeographic analysis, our method allows the parameters of a given biogeographic model to be estimated and different biogeographic models to be objectively compared. Our approach is implemented in the program, BayArea. [ancestral area analysis; Bayesian biogeographic inference; data augmentation; historical biogeography; Markov chain Monte Carlo.] PMID:23736102

A Defence of the AR4’s Bayesian Approach to Quantifying Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vezer, M. A.

2009-12-01

The field of climate change research is a kimberlite pipe filled with philosophic diamonds waiting to be mined and analyzed by philosophers. Within the scientific literature on climate change, there is much philosophical dialogue regarding the methods and implications of climate studies. To this date, however, discourse regarding the philosophy of climate science has been confined predominately to scientific - rather than philosophical - investigations. In this paper, I hope to bring one such issue to the surface for explicit philosophical analysis: The purpose of this paper is to address a philosophical debate pertaining to the expressions of uncertainty in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), which, as will be noted, has received significant attention in scientific journals and books, as well as sporadic glances from the popular press. My thesis is that the AR4’s Bayesian method of uncertainty analysis and uncertainty expression is justifiable on pragmatic grounds: it overcomes problems associated with vagueness, thereby facilitating communication between scientists and policy makers such that the latter can formulate decision analyses in response to the views of the former. Further, I argue that the most pronounced criticisms against the AR4’s Bayesian approach, which are outlined below, are misguided. §1 Introduction Central to AR4 is a list of terms related to uncertainty that in colloquial conversations would be considered vague. The IPCC attempts to reduce the vagueness of its expressions of uncertainty by calibrating uncertainty terms with numerical probability values derived from a subjective Bayesian methodology. This style of analysis and expression has stimulated some controversy, as critics reject as inappropriate and even misleading the association of uncertainty terms with Bayesian probabilities. [...] The format of the paper is as follows. The investigation begins (§2) with an explanation of background considerations relevant to the IPCC and its use of uncertainty expressions. It then (§3) outlines some general philosophical worries regarding vague expressions and (§4) relates those worries to the AR4 and its method of dealing with them, which is a subjective Bayesian probability analysis. The next phase of the paper (§5) examines the notions of ‘objective’ and ‘subjective’ probability interpretations and compares the IPCC’s subjective Bayesian strategy with a frequentist approach. It then (§6) addresses objections to that methodology, and concludes (§7) that those objections are wrongheaded.

Spiritual and ceremonial plants in North America: an assessment of Moerman's ethnobotanical database comparing Residual, Binomial, Bayesian and Imprecise Dirichlet Model (IDM) analysis.

PubMed

Turi, Christina E; Murch, Susan J

2013-07-09

Ethnobotanical research and the study of plants used for rituals, ceremonies and to connect with the spirit world have led to the discovery of many novel psychoactive compounds such as nicotine, caffeine, and cocaine. In North America, spiritual and ceremonial uses of plants are well documented and can be accessed online via the University of Michigan's Native American Ethnobotany Database. The objective of the study was to compare Residual, Bayesian, Binomial and Imprecise Dirichlet Model (IDM) analyses of ritual, ceremonial and spiritual plants in Moerman's ethnobotanical database and to identify genera that may be good candidates for the discovery of novel psychoactive compounds. The database was queried with the following format "Family Name AND Ceremonial OR Spiritual" for 263 North American botanical families. Spiritual and ceremonial flora consisted of 86 families with 517 species belonging to 292 genera. Spiritual taxa were then grouped further into ceremonial medicines and items categories. Residual, Bayesian, Binomial and IDM analysis were performed to identify over and under-utilized families. The 4 statistical approaches were in good agreement when identifying under-utilized families but large families (>393 species) were underemphasized by Binomial, Bayesian and IDM approaches for over-utilization. Residual, Binomial, and IDM analysis identified similar families as over-utilized in the medium (92-392 species) and small (<92 species) classes. The families Apiaceae, Asteraceae, Ericacea, Pinaceae and Salicaceae were identified as significantly over-utilized as ceremonial medicines in medium and large sized families. Analysis of genera within the Apiaceae and Asteraceae suggest that the genus Ligusticum and Artemisia are good candidates for facilitating the discovery of novel psychoactive compounds. The 4 statistical approaches were not consistent in the selection of over-utilization of flora. Residual analysis revealed overall trends that were supported by Binomial analysis when separated into small, medium and large families. The Bayesian, Binomial and IDM approaches identified different genera as potentially important. Species belonging to the genus Artemisia and Ligusticum were most consistently identified and may be valuable in future studies of the ethnopharmacology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diffusion-weighted imaging of the liver with multiple b values: effect of diffusion gradient polarity and breathing acquisition on image quality and intravoxel incoherent motion parameters--a pilot study.

PubMed

Dyvorne, Hadrien A; Galea, Nicola; Nevers, Thomas; Fiel, M Isabel; Carpenter, David; Wong, Edmund; Orton, Matthew; de Oliveira, Andre; Feiweier, Thorsten; Vachon, Marie-Louise; Babb, James S; Taouli, Bachir

2013-03-01

To optimize intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) diffusion-weighted (DW) imaging by estimating the effects of diffusion gradient polarity and breathing acquisition scheme on image quality, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), IVIM parameters, and parameter reproducibility, as well as to investigate the potential of IVIM in the detection of hepatic fibrosis. In this institutional review board-approved prospective study, 20 subjects (seven healthy volunteers, 13 patients with hepatitis C virus infection; 14 men, six women; mean age, 46 years) underwent IVIM DW imaging with four sequences: (a) respiratory-triggered (RT) bipolar (BP) sequence, (b) RT monopolar (MP) sequence, (c) free-breathing (FB) BP sequence, and (d) FB MP sequence. Image quality scores were assessed for all sequences. A biexponential analysis with the Bayesian method yielded true diffusion coefficient (D), pseudodiffusion coefficient (D*), and perfusion fraction (PF) in liver parenchyma. Mixed-model analysis of variance was used to compare image quality, SNR, IVIM parameters, and interexamination variability between the four sequences, as well as the ability to differentiate areas of liver fibrosis from normal liver tissue. Image quality with RT sequences was superior to that with FB acquisitions (P = .02) and was not affected by gradient polarity. SNR did not vary significantly between sequences. IVIM parameter reproducibility was moderate to excellent for PF and D, while it was less reproducible for D*. PF and D were both significantly lower in patients with hepatitis C virus than in healthy volunteers with the RT BP sequence (PF = 13.5% ± 5.3 [standard deviation] vs 9.2% ± 2.5, P = .038; D = [1.16 ± 0.07] × 10(-3) mm(2)/sec vs [1.03 ± 0.1] × 10(-3) mm(2)/sec, P = .006). The RT BP DW imaging sequence had the best results in terms of image quality, reproducibility, and ability to discriminate between healthy and fibrotic liver with biexponential fitting.

Bayesian wavelet PCA methodology for turbomachinery damage diagnosis under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Shengli; Jiang, Xiaomo; Huang, Jinzhi; Yang, Shuhua; Wang, Xiaofang

2016-12-01

Centrifugal compressor often suffers various defects such as impeller cracking, resulting in forced outage of the total plant. Damage diagnostics and condition monitoring of such a turbomachinery system has become an increasingly important and powerful tool to prevent potential failure in components and reduce unplanned forced outage and further maintenance costs, while improving reliability, availability and maintainability of a turbomachinery system. This paper presents a probabilistic signal processing methodology for damage diagnostics using multiple time history data collected from different locations of a turbomachine, considering data uncertainty and multivariate correlation. The proposed methodology is based on the integration of three advanced state-of-the-art data mining techniques: discrete wavelet packet transform, Bayesian hypothesis testing, and probabilistic principal component analysis. The multiresolution wavelet analysis approach is employed to decompose a time series signal into different levels of wavelet coefficients. These coefficients represent multiple time-frequency resolutions of a signal. Bayesian hypothesis testing is then applied to each level of wavelet coefficient to remove possible imperfections. The ratio of posterior odds Bayesian approach provides a direct means to assess whether there is imperfection in the decomposed coefficients, thus avoiding over-denoising. Power spectral density estimated by the Welch method is utilized to evaluate the effectiveness of Bayesian wavelet cleansing method. Furthermore, the probabilistic principal component analysis approach is developed to reduce dimensionality of multiple time series and to address multivariate correlation and data uncertainty for damage diagnostics. The proposed methodology and generalized framework is demonstrated with a set of sensor data collected from a real-world centrifugal compressor with impeller cracks, through both time series and contour analyses of vibration signal and principal components.

Substantial advantage of a combined Bayesian and genotyping approach in testosterone doping tests.

PubMed

Schulze, Jenny Jakobsson; Lundmark, Jonas; Garle, Mats; Ekström, Lena; Sottas, Pierre-Edouard; Rane, Anders

2009-03-01

Testosterone abuse is conventionally assessed by the urinary testosterone/epitestosterone (T/E) ratio, levels above 4.0 being considered suspicious. A deletion polymorphism in the gene coding for UGT2B17 is strongly associated with reduced testosterone glucuronide (TG) levels in urine. Many of the individuals devoid of the gene would not reach a T/E ratio of 4.0 after testosterone intake. Future test programs will most likely shift from population based- to individual-based T/E cut-off ratios using Bayesian inference. A longitudinal analysis is dependent on an individual's true negative baseline T/E ratio. The aim was to investigate whether it is possible to increase the sensitivity and specificity of the T/E test by addition of UGT2B17 genotype information in a Bayesian framework. A single intramuscular dose of 500mg testosterone enanthate was given to 55 healthy male volunteers with either two, one or no allele (ins/ins, ins/del or del/del) of the UGT2B17 gene. Urinary excretion of TG and the T/E ratio was measured during 15 days. The Bayesian analysis was conducted to calculate the individual T/E cut-off ratio. When adding the genotype information, the program returned lower individual cut-off ratios in all del/del subjects increasing the sensitivity of the test considerably. It will be difficult, if not impossible, to discriminate between a true negative baseline T/E value and a false negative one without knowledge of the UGT2B17 genotype. UGT2B17 genotype information is crucial, both to decide which initial cut-off ratio to use for an individual, and for increasing the sensitivity of the Bayesian analysis.

Comparing energy sources for surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation: a Bayesian network meta-analysis of randomized, controlled trials.

PubMed

Phan, Kevin; Xie, Ashleigh; Kumar, Narendra; Wong, Sophia; Medi, Caroline; La Meir, Mark; Yan, Tristan D

2015-08-01

Simplified maze procedures involving radiofrequency, cryoenergy and microwave energy sources have been increasingly utilized for surgical treatment of atrial fibrillation as an alternative to the traditional cut-and-sew approach. In the absence of direct comparisons, a Bayesian network meta-analysis is another alternative to assess the relative effect of different treatments, using indirect evidence. A Bayesian meta-analysis of indirect evidence was performed using 16 published randomized trials identified from 6 databases. Rank probability analysis was used to rank each intervention in terms of their probability of having the best outcome. Sinus rhythm prevalence beyond the 12-month follow-up was similar between the cut-and-sew, microwave and radiofrequency approaches, which were all ranked better than cryoablation (respectively, 39, 36, and 25 vs 1%). The cut-and-sew maze was ranked worst in terms of mortality outcomes compared with microwave, radiofrequency and cryoenergy (2 vs 19, 34, and 24%, respectively). The cut-and-sew maze procedure was associated with significantly lower stroke rates compared with microwave ablation [odds ratio <0.01; 95% confidence interval 0.00, 0.82], and ranked the best in terms of pacemaker requirements compared with microwave, radiofrequency and cryoenergy (81 vs 14, and 1, <0.01% respectively). Bayesian rank probability analysis shows that the cut-and-sew approach is associated with the best outcomes in terms of sinus rhythm prevalence and stroke outcomes, and remains the gold standard approach for AF treatment. Given the limitations of indirect comparison analysis, these results should be viewed with caution and not over-interpreted. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal Phylogenetic Analysis and Molecular Characterisation of Infectious Bursal Disease Viruses Based on the VP2 Hyper-Variable Region

PubMed Central

Dolz, Roser; Valle, Rosa; Perera, Carmen L.; Bertran, Kateri; Frías, Maria T.; Majó, Natàlia; Ganges, Llilianne; Pérez, Lester J.

2013-01-01

Background Infectious bursal disease is a highly contagious and acute viral disease caused by the infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV); it affects all major poultry producing areas of the world. The current study was designed to rigorously measure the global phylogeographic dynamics of IBDV strains to gain insight into viral population expansion as well as the emergence, spread and pattern of the geographical structure of very virulent IBDV (vvIBDV) strains. Methodology/Principal Findings Sequences of the hyper-variable region of the VP2 (HVR-VP2) gene from IBDV strains isolated from diverse geographic locations were obtained from the GenBank database; Cuban sequences were obtained in the current work. All sequences were analysed by Bayesian phylogeographic analysis, implemented in the Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis Sampling Trees (BEAST), Bayesian Tip-association Significance testing (BaTS) and Spatial Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Evolutionary Dynamics (SPREAD) software packages. Selection pressure on the HVR-VP2 was also assessed. The phylogeographic association-trait analysis showed that viruses sampled from individual countries tend to cluster together, suggesting a geographic pattern for IBDV strains. Spatial analysis from this study revealed that strains carrying sequences that were linked to increased virulence of IBDV appeared in Iran in 1981 and spread to Western Europe (Belgium) in 1987, Africa (Egypt) around 1990, East Asia (China and Japan) in 1993, the Caribbean Region (Cuba) by 1995 and South America (Brazil) around 2000. Selection pressure analysis showed that several codons in the HVR-VP2 region were under purifying selection. Conclusions/Significance To our knowledge, this work is the first study applying the Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction approach to analyse the emergence and spread of vvIBDV strains worldwide. PMID:23805195

Spatiotemporal Phylogenetic Analysis and Molecular Characterisation of Infectious Bursal Disease Viruses Based on the VP2 Hyper-Variable Region.

PubMed

Alfonso-Morales, Abdulahi; Martínez-Pérez, Orlando; Dolz, Roser; Valle, Rosa; Perera, Carmen L; Bertran, Kateri; Frías, Maria T; Majó, Natàlia; Ganges, Llilianne; Pérez, Lester J

2013-01-01

Infectious bursal disease is a highly contagious and acute viral disease caused by the infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV); it affects all major poultry producing areas of the world. The current study was designed to rigorously measure the global phylogeographic dynamics of IBDV strains to gain insight into viral population expansion as well as the emergence, spread and pattern of the geographical structure of very virulent IBDV (vvIBDV) strains. Sequences of the hyper-variable region of the VP2 (HVR-VP2) gene from IBDV strains isolated from diverse geographic locations were obtained from the GenBank database; Cuban sequences were obtained in the current work. All sequences were analysed by Bayesian phylogeographic analysis, implemented in the Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis Sampling Trees (BEAST), Bayesian Tip-association Significance testing (BaTS) and Spatial Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Evolutionary Dynamics (SPREAD) software packages. Selection pressure on the HVR-VP2 was also assessed. The phylogeographic association-trait analysis showed that viruses sampled from individual countries tend to cluster together, suggesting a geographic pattern for IBDV strains. Spatial analysis from this study revealed that strains carrying sequences that were linked to increased virulence of IBDV appeared in Iran in 1981 and spread to Western Europe (Belgium) in 1987, Africa (Egypt) around 1990, East Asia (China and Japan) in 1993, the Caribbean Region (Cuba) by 1995 and South America (Brazil) around 2000. Selection pressure analysis showed that several codons in the HVR-VP2 region were under purifying selection. To our knowledge, this work is the first study applying the Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction approach to analyse the emergence and spread of vvIBDV strains worldwide.

Parameterization of aquatic ecosystem functioning and its natural variation: Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of plankton food web dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norros, Veera; Laine, Marko; Lignell, Risto; Thingstad, Frede

2017-10-01

Methods for extracting empirically and theoretically sound parameter values are urgently needed in aquatic ecosystem modelling to describe key flows and their variation in the system. Here, we compare three Bayesian formulations for mechanistic model parameterization that differ in their assumptions about the variation in parameter values between various datasets: 1) global analysis - no variation, 2) separate analysis - independent variation and 3) hierarchical analysis - variation arising from a shared distribution defined by hyperparameters. We tested these methods, using computer-generated and empirical data, coupled with simplified and reasonably realistic plankton food web models, respectively. While all methods were adequate, the simulated example demonstrated that a well-designed hierarchical analysis can result in the most accurate and precise parameter estimates and predictions, due to its ability to combine information across datasets. However, our results also highlighted sensitivity to hyperparameter prior distributions as an important caveat of hierarchical analysis. In the more complex empirical example, hierarchical analysis was able to combine precise identification of parameter values with reasonably good predictive performance, although the ranking of the methods was less straightforward. We conclude that hierarchical Bayesian analysis is a promising tool for identifying key ecosystem-functioning parameters and their variation from empirical datasets.

Iterative Assessment of Statistically-Oriented and Standard Algorithms for Determining Muscle Onset with Intramuscular Electromyography.

PubMed

Tenan, Matthew S; Tweedell, Andrew J; Haynes, Courtney A

2017-12-01

The onset of muscle activity, as measured by electromyography (EMG), is a commonly applied metric in biomechanics. Intramuscular EMG is often used to examine deep musculature and there are currently no studies examining the effectiveness of algorithms for intramuscular EMG onset. The present study examines standard surface EMG onset algorithms (linear envelope, Teager-Kaiser Energy Operator, and sample entropy) and novel algorithms (time series mean-variance analysis, sequential/batch processing with parametric and nonparametric methods, and Bayesian changepoint analysis). Thirteen male and 5 female subjects had intramuscular EMG collected during isolated biceps brachii and vastus lateralis contractions, resulting in 103 trials. EMG onset was visually determined twice by 3 blinded reviewers. Since the reliability of visual onset was high (ICC (1,1) : 0.92), the mean of the 6 visual assessments was contrasted with the algorithmic approaches. Poorly performing algorithms were stepwise eliminated via (1) root mean square error analysis, (2) algorithm failure to identify onset/premature onset, (3) linear regression analysis, and (4) Bland-Altman plots. The top performing algorithms were all based on Bayesian changepoint analysis of rectified EMG and were statistically indistinguishable from visual analysis. Bayesian changepoint analysis has the potential to produce more reliable, accurate, and objective intramuscular EMG onset results than standard methodologies.

Quantitative trait nucleotide analysis using Bayesian model selection.

PubMed

Blangero, John; Goring, Harald H H; Kent, Jack W; Williams, Jeff T; Peterson, Charles P; Almasy, Laura; Dyer, Thomas D

2005-10-01

Although much attention has been given to statistical genetic methods for the initial localization and fine mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTLs), little methodological work has been done to date on the problem of statistically identifying the most likely functional polymorphisms using sequence data. In this paper we provide a general statistical genetic framework, called Bayesian quantitative trait nucleotide (BQTN) analysis, for assessing the likely functional status of genetic variants. The approach requires the initial enumeration of all genetic variants in a set of resequenced individuals. These polymorphisms are then typed in a large number of individuals (potentially in families), and marker variation is related to quantitative phenotypic variation using Bayesian model selection and averaging. For each sequence variant a posterior probability of effect is obtained and can be used to prioritize additional molecular functional experiments. An example of this quantitative nucleotide analysis is provided using the GAW12 simulated data. The results show that the BQTN method may be useful for choosing the most likely functional variants within a gene (or set of genes). We also include instructions on how to use our computer program, SOLAR, for association analysis and BQTN analysis.

Bayesian data analysis tools for atomic physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trassinelli, Martino

2017-10-01

We present an introduction to some concepts of Bayesian data analysis in the context of atomic physics. Starting from basic rules of probability, we present the Bayes' theorem and its applications. In particular we discuss about how to calculate simple and joint probability distributions and the Bayesian evidence, a model dependent quantity that allows to assign probabilities to different hypotheses from the analysis of a same data set. To give some practical examples, these methods are applied to two concrete cases. In the first example, the presence or not of a satellite line in an atomic spectrum is investigated. In the second example, we determine the most probable model among a set of possible profiles from the analysis of a statistically poor spectrum. We show also how to calculate the probability distribution of the main spectral component without having to determine uniquely the spectrum modeling. For these two studies, we implement the program Nested_fit to calculate the different probability distributions and other related quantities. Nested_fit is a Fortran90/Python code developed during the last years for analysis of atomic spectra. As indicated by the name, it is based on the nested algorithm, which is presented in details together with the program itself.

Framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis to investigate the perturbed metabolic network

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Genome-scale metabolic network models have contributed to elucidating biological phenomena, and predicting gene targets to engineer for biotechnological applications. With their increasing importance, their precise network characterization has also been crucial for better understanding of the cellular physiology. Results We herein introduce a framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis (FMB) to investigate organism’s metabolism under perturbation. FMB reveals direction of influences among metabolic modules, in which reactions with similar or positively correlated flux variation patterns are clustered, in response to specific perturbation using metabolic flux data. With metabolic flux data calculated by constraints-based flux analysis under both control and perturbation conditions, FMB, in essence, reveals the effects of specific perturbations on the biological system through network modularization and Bayesian network analysis at metabolic modular level. As a demonstration, this framework was applied to the genetically perturbed Escherichia coli metabolism, which is a lpdA gene knockout mutant, using its genome-scale metabolic network model. Conclusions After all, it provides alternative scenarios of metabolic flux distributions in response to the perturbation, which are complementary to the data obtained from conventionally available genome-wide high-throughput techniques or metabolic flux analysis. PMID:22784571

Framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis to investigate the perturbed metabolic network.

PubMed

Kim, Hyun Uk; Kim, Tae Yong; Lee, Sang Yup

2011-01-01

Genome-scale metabolic network models have contributed to elucidating biological phenomena, and predicting gene targets to engineer for biotechnological applications. With their increasing importance, their precise network characterization has also been crucial for better understanding of the cellular physiology. We herein introduce a framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis (FMB) to investigate organism's metabolism under perturbation. FMB reveals direction of influences among metabolic modules, in which reactions with similar or positively correlated flux variation patterns are clustered, in response to specific perturbation using metabolic flux data. With metabolic flux data calculated by constraints-based flux analysis under both control and perturbation conditions, FMB, in essence, reveals the effects of specific perturbations on the biological system through network modularization and Bayesian network analysis at metabolic modular level. As a demonstration, this framework was applied to the genetically perturbed Escherichia coli metabolism, which is a lpdA gene knockout mutant, using its genome-scale metabolic network model. After all, it provides alternative scenarios of metabolic flux distributions in response to the perturbation, which are complementary to the data obtained from conventionally available genome-wide high-throughput techniques or metabolic flux analysis.