Bayesian approach to spectral function reconstruction for Euclidean quantum field theories.

PubMed

Burnier, Yannis; Rothkopf, Alexander

2013-11-01

We present a novel approach to the inference of spectral functions from Euclidean time correlator data that makes close contact with modern Bayesian concepts. Our method differs significantly from the maximum entropy method (MEM). A new set of axioms is postulated for the prior probability, leading to an improved expression, which is devoid of the asymptotically flat directions present in the Shanon-Jaynes entropy. Hyperparameters are integrated out explicitly, liberating us from the Gaussian approximations underlying the evidence approach of the maximum entropy method. We present a realistic test of our method in the context of the nonperturbative extraction of the heavy quark potential. Based on hard-thermal-loop correlator mock data, we establish firm requirements in the number of data points and their accuracy for a successful extraction of the potential from lattice QCD. Finally we reinvestigate quenched lattice QCD correlators from a previous study and provide an improved potential estimation at T=2.33T(C).

Classic Maximum Entropy Recovery of the Average Joint Distribution of Apparent FRET Efficiency and Fluorescence Photons for Single-molecule Burst Measurements

PubMed Central

DeVore, Matthew S.; Gull, Stephen F.; Johnson, Carey K.

2012-01-01

We describe a method for analysis of single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) burst measurements using classic maximum entropy. Classic maximum entropy determines the Bayesian inference for the joint probability describing the total fluorescence photons and the apparent FRET efficiency. The method was tested with simulated data and then with DNA labeled with fluorescent dyes. The most probable joint distribution can be marginalized to obtain both the overall distribution of fluorescence photons and the apparent FRET efficiency distribution. This method proves to be ideal for determining the distance distribution of FRET-labeled biomolecules, and it successfully predicts the shape of the recovered distributions. PMID:22338694

Optimizing an estuarine water quality monitoring program through an entropy-based hierarchical spatiotemporal Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alameddine, Ibrahim; Karmakar, Subhankar; Qian, Song S.; Paerl, Hans W.; Reckhow, Kenneth H.

2013-10-01

The total maximum daily load program aims to monitor more than 40,000 standard violations in around 20,000 impaired water bodies across the United States. Given resource limitations, future monitoring efforts have to be hedged against the uncertainties in the monitored system, while taking into account existing knowledge. In that respect, we have developed a hierarchical spatiotemporal Bayesian model that can be used to optimize an existing monitoring network by retaining stations that provide the maximum amount of information, while identifying locations that would benefit from the addition of new stations. The model assumes the water quality parameters are adequately described by a joint matrix normal distribution. The adopted approach allows for a reduction in redundancies, while emphasizing information richness rather than data richness. The developed approach incorporates the concept of entropy to account for the associated uncertainties. Three different entropy-based criteria are adopted: total system entropy, chlorophyll-a standard violation entropy, and dissolved oxygen standard violation entropy. A multiple attribute decision making framework is adopted to integrate the competing design criteria and to generate a single optimal design. The approach is implemented on the water quality monitoring system of the Neuse River Estuary in North Carolina, USA. The model results indicate that the high priority monitoring areas identified by the total system entropy and the dissolved oxygen violation entropy criteria are largely coincident. The monitoring design based on the chlorophyll-a standard violation entropy proved to be less informative, given the low probabilities of violating the water quality standard in the estuary.

Maximum entropy perception-action space: a Bayesian model of eye movement selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colas, Francis; Bessière, Pierre; Girard, Benoît

2011-03-01

In this article, we investigate the issue of the selection of eye movements in a free-eye Multiple Object Tracking task. We propose a Bayesian model of retinotopic maps with a complex logarithmic mapping. This model is structured in two parts: a representation of the visual scene, and a decision model based on the representation. We compare different decision models based on different features of the representation and we show that taking into account uncertainty helps predict the eye movements of subjects recorded in a psychophysics experiment. Finally, based on experimental data, we postulate that the complex logarithmic mapping has a functional relevance, as the density of objects in this space in more uniform than expected. This may indicate that the representation space and control strategies are such that the object density is of maximum entropy.

Bayesian Methods and Universal Darwinism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, John

2009-12-01

Bayesian methods since the time of Laplace have been understood by their practitioners as closely aligned to the scientific method. Indeed a recent Champion of Bayesian methods, E. T. Jaynes, titled his textbook on the subject Probability Theory: the Logic of Science. Many philosophers of science including Karl Popper and Donald Campbell have interpreted the evolution of Science as a Darwinian process consisting of a `copy with selective retention' algorithm abstracted from Darwin's theory of Natural Selection. Arguments are presented for an isomorphism between Bayesian Methods and Darwinian processes. Universal Darwinism, as the term has been developed by Richard Dawkins, Daniel Dennett and Susan Blackmore, is the collection of scientific theories which explain the creation and evolution of their subject matter as due to the Operation of Darwinian processes. These subject matters span the fields of atomic physics, chemistry, biology and the social sciences. The principle of Maximum Entropy states that Systems will evolve to states of highest entropy subject to the constraints of scientific law. This principle may be inverted to provide illumination as to the nature of scientific law. Our best cosmological theories suggest the universe contained much less complexity during the period shortly after the Big Bang than it does at present. The scientific subject matter of atomic physics, chemistry, biology and the social sciences has been created since that time. An explanation is proposed for the existence of this subject matter as due to the evolution of constraints in the form of adaptations imposed on Maximum Entropy. It is argued these adaptations were discovered and instantiated through the Operations of a succession of Darwinian processes.

Maximum entropy, fluctuations and priors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caticha, A.

2001-05-01

The method of maximum entropy (ME) is extended to address the following problem: Once one accepts that the ME distribution is to be preferred over all others, the question is to what extent are distributions with lower entropy supposed to be ruled out. Two applications are given. The first is to the theory of thermodynamic fluctuations. The formulation is exact, covariant under changes of coordinates, and allows fluctuations of both the extensive and the conjugate intensive variables. The second application is to the construction of an objective prior for Bayesian inference. The prior obtained by following the ME method to its inevitable conclusion turns out to be a special case (α=1) of what are currently known under the name of entropic priors. .

Bayesian energy landscape tilting: towards concordant models of molecular ensembles.

PubMed

Beauchamp, Kyle A; Pande, Vijay S; Das, Rhiju

2014-03-18

Predicting biological structure has remained challenging for systems such as disordered proteins that take on myriad conformations. Hybrid simulation/experiment strategies have been undermined by difficulties in evaluating errors from computational model inaccuracies and data uncertainties. Building on recent proposals from maximum entropy theory and nonequilibrium thermodynamics, we address these issues through a Bayesian energy landscape tilting (BELT) scheme for computing Bayesian hyperensembles over conformational ensembles. BELT uses Markov chain Monte Carlo to directly sample maximum-entropy conformational ensembles consistent with a set of input experimental observables. To test this framework, we apply BELT to model trialanine, starting from disagreeing simulations with the force fields ff96, ff99, ff99sbnmr-ildn, CHARMM27, and OPLS-AA. BELT incorporation of limited chemical shift and (3)J measurements gives convergent values of the peptide's α, β, and PPII conformational populations in all cases. As a test of predictive power, all five BELT hyperensembles recover set-aside measurements not used in the fitting and report accurate errors, even when starting from highly inaccurate simulations. BELT's principled framework thus enables practical predictions for complex biomolecular systems from discordant simulations and sparse data. Copyright © 2014 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Geotechnical parameter spatial distribution stochastic analysis based on multi-precision information assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Rubin, Y.

2014-12-01

Spatial distribution of important geotechnical parameter named compression modulus Es contributes considerably to the understanding of the underlying geological processes and the adequate assessment of the Es mechanics effects for differential settlement of large continuous structure foundation. These analyses should be derived using an assimilating approach that combines in-situ static cone penetration test (CPT) with borehole experiments. To achieve such a task, the Es distribution of stratum of silty clay in region A of China Expo Center (Shanghai) is studied using the Bayesian-maximum entropy method. This method integrates rigorously and efficiently multi-precision of different geotechnical investigations and sources of uncertainty. Single CPT samplings were modeled as a rational probability density curve by maximum entropy theory. Spatial prior multivariate probability density function (PDF) and likelihood PDF of the CPT positions were built by borehole experiments and the potential value of the prediction point, then, preceding numerical integration on the CPT probability density curves, the posterior probability density curve of the prediction point would be calculated by the Bayesian reverse interpolation framework. The results were compared between Gaussian Sequential Stochastic Simulation and Bayesian methods. The differences were also discussed between single CPT samplings of normal distribution and simulated probability density curve based on maximum entropy theory. It is shown that the study of Es spatial distributions can be improved by properly incorporating CPT sampling variation into interpolation process, whereas more informative estimations are generated by considering CPT Uncertainty for the estimation points. Calculation illustrates the significance of stochastic Es characterization in a stratum, and identifies limitations associated with inadequate geostatistical interpolation techniques. This characterization results will provide a multi-precision information assimilation method of other geotechnical parameters.

Merging daily sea surface temperature data from multiple satellites using a Bayesian maximum entropy method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Shaolei; Yang, Xiaofeng; Dong, Di; Li, Ziwei

2015-12-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) is an important variable for understanding interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere. SST fusion is crucial for acquiring SST products of high spatial resolution and coverage. This study introduces a Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method for blending daily SSTs from multiple satellite sensors. A new spatiotemporal covariance model of an SST field is built to integrate not only single-day SSTs but also time-adjacent SSTs. In addition, AVHRR 30-year SST climatology data are introduced as soft data at the estimation points to improve the accuracy of blended results within the BME framework. The merged SSTs, with a spatial resolution of 4 km and a temporal resolution of 24 hours, are produced in the Western Pacific Ocean region to demonstrate and evaluate the proposed methodology. Comparisons with in situ drifting buoy observations show that the merged SSTs are accurate and the bias and root-mean-square errors for the comparison are 0.15°C and 0.72°C, respectively.

Improving Bayesian credibility intervals for classifier error rates using maximum entropy empirical priors.

PubMed

Gustafsson, Mats G; Wallman, Mikael; Wickenberg Bolin, Ulrika; Göransson, Hanna; Fryknäs, M; Andersson, Claes R; Isaksson, Anders

2010-06-01

Successful use of classifiers that learn to make decisions from a set of patient examples require robust methods for performance estimation. Recently many promising approaches for determination of an upper bound for the error rate of a single classifier have been reported but the Bayesian credibility interval (CI) obtained from a conventional holdout test still delivers one of the tightest bounds. The conventional Bayesian CI becomes unacceptably large in real world applications where the test set sizes are less than a few hundred. The source of this problem is that fact that the CI is determined exclusively by the result on the test examples. In other words, there is no information at all provided by the uniform prior density distribution employed which reflects complete lack of prior knowledge about the unknown error rate. Therefore, the aim of the study reported here was to study a maximum entropy (ME) based approach to improved prior knowledge and Bayesian CIs, demonstrating its relevance for biomedical research and clinical practice. It is demonstrated how a refined non-uniform prior density distribution can be obtained by means of the ME principle using empirical results from a few designs and tests using non-overlapping sets of examples. Experimental results show that ME based priors improve the CIs when employed to four quite different simulated and two real world data sets. An empirically derived ME prior seems promising for improving the Bayesian CI for the unknown error rate of a designed classifier. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Design as a Fusion Problem

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-07-01

consider a proof as a composition relative to some system of music or as a painting. From the Bayesian perspective, any sufciently complex problem has...these types algorithms based on maximum entropy analysis. An example is the Bar-Shalom- Campo Fusion Rule: Xf (kjk) = X2(kjk) + (P22 P21)U1[X1(kjk

LANDMARK-BASED SPEECH RECOGNITION: REPORT OF THE 2004 JOHNS HOPKINS SUMMER WORKSHOP.

PubMed

Hasegawa-Johnson, Mark; Baker, James; Borys, Sarah; Chen, Ken; Coogan, Emily; Greenberg, Steven; Juneja, Amit; Kirchhoff, Katrin; Livescu, Karen; Mohan, Srividya; Muller, Jennifer; Sonmez, Kemal; Wang, Tianyu

2005-01-01

Three research prototype speech recognition systems are described, all of which use recently developed methods from artificial intelligence (specifically support vector machines, dynamic Bayesian networks, and maximum entropy classification) in order to implement, in the form of an automatic speech recognizer, current theories of human speech perception and phonology (specifically landmark-based speech perception, nonlinear phonology, and articulatory phonology). All three systems begin with a high-dimensional multiframe acoustic-to-distinctive feature transformation, implemented using support vector machines trained to detect and classify acoustic phonetic landmarks. Distinctive feature probabilities estimated by the support vector machines are then integrated using one of three pronunciation models: a dynamic programming algorithm that assumes canonical pronunciation of each word, a dynamic Bayesian network implementation of articulatory phonology, or a discriminative pronunciation model trained using the methods of maximum entropy classification. Log probability scores computed by these models are then combined, using log-linear combination, with other word scores available in the lattice output of a first-pass recognizer, and the resulting combination score is used to compute a second-pass speech recognition output.

Precipitation Interpolation by Multivariate Bayesian Maximum Entropy Based on Meteorological Data in Yun- Gui-Guang region, Mainland China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chaolin; Zhong, Shaobo; Zhang, Fushen; Huang, Quanyi

2016-11-01

Precipitation interpolation has been a hot area of research for many years. It had close relation to meteorological factors. In this paper, precipitation from 91 meteorological stations located in and around Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi Zhuang provinces (or autonomous region), Mainland China was taken into consideration for spatial interpolation. Multivariate Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method with auxiliary variables, including mean relative humidity, water vapour pressure, mean temperature, mean wind speed and terrain elevation, was used to get more accurate regional distribution of annual precipitation. The means, standard deviations, skewness and kurtosis of meteorological factors were calculated. Variogram and cross- variogram were fitted between precipitation and auxiliary variables. The results showed that the multivariate BME method was precise with hard and soft data, probability density function. Annual mean precipitation was positively correlated with mean relative humidity, mean water vapour pressure, mean temperature and mean wind speed, negatively correlated with terrain elevation. The results are supposed to provide substantial reference for research of drought and waterlog in the region.

Bayesian approach to inverse statistical mechanics.

PubMed

Habeck, Michael

2014-05-01

Inverse statistical mechanics aims to determine particle interactions from ensemble properties. This article looks at this inverse problem from a Bayesian perspective and discusses several statistical estimators to solve it. In addition, a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed that draws the interaction parameters from their posterior probability distribution. The posterior probability involves an intractable partition function that is estimated along with the interactions. The method is illustrated for inverse problems of varying complexity, including the estimation of a temperature, the inverse Ising problem, maximum entropy fitting, and the reconstruction of molecular interaction potentials.

Bayesian approach to inverse statistical mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habeck, Michael

2014-05-01

Inverse statistical mechanics aims to determine particle interactions from ensemble properties. This article looks at this inverse problem from a Bayesian perspective and discusses several statistical estimators to solve it. In addition, a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed that draws the interaction parameters from their posterior probability distribution. The posterior probability involves an intractable partition function that is estimated along with the interactions. The method is illustrated for inverse problems of varying complexity, including the estimation of a temperature, the inverse Ising problem, maximum entropy fitting, and the reconstruction of molecular interaction potentials.

Data free inference with processed data products

DOE PAGES

Chowdhary, K.; Najm, H. N.

2014-07-12

Here, we consider the context of probabilistic inference of model parameters given error bars or confidence intervals on model output values, when the data is unavailable. We introduce a class of algorithms in a Bayesian framework, relying on maximum entropy arguments and approximate Bayesian computation methods, to generate consistent data with the given summary statistics. Once we obtain consistent data sets, we pool the respective posteriors, to arrive at a single, averaged density on the parameters. This approach allows us to perform accurate forward uncertainty propagation consistent with the reported statistics.

Numerical optimization using flow equations.

PubMed

Punk, Matthias

2014-12-01

We develop a method for multidimensional optimization using flow equations. This method is based on homotopy continuation in combination with a maximum entropy approach. Extrema of the optimizing functional correspond to fixed points of the flow equation. While ideas based on Bayesian inference such as the maximum entropy method always depend on a prior probability, the additional step in our approach is to perform a continuous update of the prior during the homotopy flow. The prior probability thus enters the flow equation only as an initial condition. We demonstrate the applicability of this optimization method for two paradigmatic problems in theoretical condensed matter physics: numerical analytic continuation from imaginary to real frequencies and finding (variational) ground states of frustrated (quantum) Ising models with random or long-range antiferromagnetic interactions.

Numerical optimization using flow equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Punk, Matthias

2014-12-01

We develop a method for multidimensional optimization using flow equations. This method is based on homotopy continuation in combination with a maximum entropy approach. Extrema of the optimizing functional correspond to fixed points of the flow equation. While ideas based on Bayesian inference such as the maximum entropy method always depend on a prior probability, the additional step in our approach is to perform a continuous update of the prior during the homotopy flow. The prior probability thus enters the flow equation only as an initial condition. We demonstrate the applicability of this optimization method for two paradigmatic problems in theoretical condensed matter physics: numerical analytic continuation from imaginary to real frequencies and finding (variational) ground states of frustrated (quantum) Ising models with random or long-range antiferromagnetic interactions.

Bayesian Maximum Entropy Integration of Ozone Observations and Model Predictions: A National Application.

PubMed

Xu, Yadong; Serre, Marc L; Reyes, Jeanette; Vizuete, William

2016-04-19

To improve ozone exposure estimates for ambient concentrations at a national scale, we introduce our novel Regionalized Air Quality Model Performance (RAMP) approach to integrate chemical transport model (CTM) predictions with the available ozone observations using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) framework. The framework models the nonlinear and nonhomoscedastic relation between air pollution observations and CTM predictions and for the first time accounts for variability in CTM model performance. A validation analysis using only noncollocated data outside of a validation radius rv was performed and the R(2) between observations and re-estimated values for two daily metrics, the daily maximum 8-h average (DM8A) and the daily 24-h average (D24A) ozone concentrations, were obtained with the OBS scenario using ozone observations only in contrast with the RAMP and a Constant Air Quality Model Performance (CAMP) scenarios. We show that, by accounting for the spatial and temporal variability in model performance, our novel RAMP approach is able to extract more information in terms of R(2) increase percentage, with over 12 times for the DM8A and over 3.5 times for the D24A ozone concentrations, from CTM predictions than the CAMP approach assuming that model performance does not change across space and time.

Efficient Bayesian experimental design for contaminant source identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jiangjiang; Zeng, Lingzao; Chen, Cheng; Chen, Dingjiang; Wu, Laosheng

2015-01-01

In this study, an efficient full Bayesian approach is developed for the optimal sampling well location design and source parameters identification of groundwater contaminants. An information measure, i.e., the relative entropy, is employed to quantify the information gain from concentration measurements in identifying unknown parameters. In this approach, the sampling locations that give the maximum expected relative entropy are selected as the optimal design. After the sampling locations are determined, a Bayesian approach based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to estimate unknown parameters. In both the design and estimation, the contaminant transport equation is required to be solved many times to evaluate the likelihood. To reduce the computational burden, an interpolation method based on the adaptive sparse grid is utilized to construct a surrogate for the contaminant transport equation. The approximated likelihood can be evaluated directly from the surrogate, which greatly accelerates the design and estimation process. The accuracy and efficiency of our approach are demonstrated through numerical case studies. It is shown that the methods can be used to assist in both single sampling location and monitoring network design for contaminant source identifications in groundwater.

Human vision is determined based on information theory.

PubMed

Delgado-Bonal, Alfonso; Martín-Torres, Javier

2016-11-03

It is commonly accepted that the evolution of the human eye has been driven by the maximum intensity of the radiation emitted by the Sun. However, the interpretation of the surrounding environment is constrained not only by the amount of energy received but also by the information content of the radiation. Information is related to entropy rather than energy. The human brain follows Bayesian statistical inference for the interpretation of visual space. The maximization of information occurs in the process of maximizing the entropy. Here, we show that the photopic and scotopic vision absorption peaks in humans are determined not only by the intensity but also by the entropy of radiation. We suggest that through the course of evolution, the human eye has not adapted only to the maximum intensity or to the maximum information but to the optimal wavelength for obtaining information. On Earth, the optimal wavelengths for photopic and scotopic vision are 555 nm and 508 nm, respectively, as inferred experimentally. These optimal wavelengths are determined by the temperature of the star (in this case, the Sun) and by the atmospheric composition.

Human vision is determined based on information theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delgado-Bonal, Alfonso; Martín-Torres, Javier

2016-11-01

It is commonly accepted that the evolution of the human eye has been driven by the maximum intensity of the radiation emitted by the Sun. However, the interpretation of the surrounding environment is constrained not only by the amount of energy received but also by the information content of the radiation. Information is related to entropy rather than energy. The human brain follows Bayesian statistical inference for the interpretation of visual space. The maximization of information occurs in the process of maximizing the entropy. Here, we show that the photopic and scotopic vision absorption peaks in humans are determined not only by the intensity but also by the entropy of radiation. We suggest that through the course of evolution, the human eye has not adapted only to the maximum intensity or to the maximum information but to the optimal wavelength for obtaining information. On Earth, the optimal wavelengths for photopic and scotopic vision are 555 nm and 508 nm, respectively, as inferred experimentally. These optimal wavelengths are determined by the temperature of the star (in this case, the Sun) and by the atmospheric composition.

Human vision is determined based on information theory

PubMed Central

Delgado-Bonal, Alfonso; Martín-Torres, Javier

2016-01-01

It is commonly accepted that the evolution of the human eye has been driven by the maximum intensity of the radiation emitted by the Sun. However, the interpretation of the surrounding environment is constrained not only by the amount of energy received but also by the information content of the radiation. Information is related to entropy rather than energy. The human brain follows Bayesian statistical inference for the interpretation of visual space. The maximization of information occurs in the process of maximizing the entropy. Here, we show that the photopic and scotopic vision absorption peaks in humans are determined not only by the intensity but also by the entropy of radiation. We suggest that through the course of evolution, the human eye has not adapted only to the maximum intensity or to the maximum information but to the optimal wavelength for obtaining information. On Earth, the optimal wavelengths for photopic and scotopic vision are 555 nm and 508 nm, respectively, as inferred experimentally. These optimal wavelengths are determined by the temperature of the star (in this case, the Sun) and by the atmospheric composition. PMID:27808236

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khosla, D.; Singh, M.

The estimation of three-dimensional dipole current sources on the cortical surface from the measured magnetoencephalogram (MEG) is a highly under determined inverse problem as there are many {open_quotes}feasible{close_quotes} images which are consistent with the MEG data. Previous approaches to this problem have concentrated on the use of weighted minimum norm inverse methods. While these methods ensure a unique solution, they often produce overly smoothed solutions and exhibit severe sensitivity to noise. In this paper we explore the maximum entropy approach to obtain better solutions to the problem. This estimation technique selects that image from the possible set of feasible imagesmore » which has the maximum entropy permitted by the information available to us. In order to account for the presence of noise in the data, we have also incorporated a noise rejection or likelihood term into our maximum entropy method. This makes our approach mirror a Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) formulation. Additional information from other functional techniques like functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) can be incorporated in the proposed method in the form of a prior bias function to improve solutions. We demonstrate the method with experimental phantom data from a clinical 122 channel MEG system.« less

Entropic criterion for model selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tseng, Chih-Yuan

2006-10-01

Model or variable selection is usually achieved through ranking models according to the increasing order of preference. One of methods is applying Kullback-Leibler distance or relative entropy as a selection criterion. Yet that will raise two questions, why use this criterion and are there any other criteria. Besides, conventional approaches require a reference prior, which is usually difficult to get. Following the logic of inductive inference proposed by Caticha [Relative entropy and inductive inference, in: G. Erickson, Y. Zhai (Eds.), Bayesian Inference and Maximum Entropy Methods in Science and Engineering, AIP Conference Proceedings, vol. 707, 2004 (available from arXiv.org/abs/physics/0311093)], we show relative entropy to be a unique criterion, which requires no prior information and can be applied to different fields. We examine this criterion by considering a physical problem, simple fluids, and results are promising.

LensEnt2: Maximum-entropy weak lens reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, P. J.; Hobson, M. P.; Gull, S. F.; Bridle, S. L.

2013-08-01

LensEnt2 is a maximum entropy reconstructor of weak lensing mass maps. The method takes each galaxy shape as an independent estimator of the reduced shear field and incorporates an intrinsic smoothness, determined by Bayesian methods, into the reconstruction. The uncertainties from both the intrinsic distribution of galaxy shapes and galaxy shape estimation are carried through to the final mass reconstruction, and the mass within arbitrarily shaped apertures are calculated with corresponding uncertainties. The input is a galaxy ellipticity catalog with each measured galaxy shape treated as a noisy tracer of the reduced shear field, which is inferred on a fine pixel grid assuming positivity, and smoothness on scales of w arcsec where w is an input parameter. The ICF width w can be chosen by computing the evidence for it.

Halo-independence with quantified maximum entropy at DAMA/LIBRA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowlie, Andrew

2017-10-01

Using the DAMA/LIBRA anomaly as an example, we formalise the notion of halo-independence in the context of Bayesian statistics and quantified maximum entropy. We consider an infinite set of possible profiles, weighted by an entropic prior and constrained by a likelihood describing noisy measurements of modulated moments by DAMA/LIBRA. Assuming an isotropic dark matter (DM) profile in the galactic rest frame, we find the most plausible DM profiles and predictions for unmodulated signal rates at DAMA/LIBRA. The entropic prior contains an a priori unknown regularisation factor, β, that describes the strength of our conviction that the profile is approximately Maxwellian. By varying β, we smoothly interpolate between a halo-independent and a halo-dependent analysis, thus exploring the impact of prior information about the DM profile.

A product Pearson-type VII density distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadarajah, Saralees; Kotz, Samuel

2008-01-01

The Pearson-type VII distributions (containing the Student's t distributions) are becoming increasing prominent and are being considered as competitors to the normal distribution. Motivated by real examples in decision sciences, Bayesian statistics, probability theory and Physics, a new Pearson-type VII distribution is introduced by taking the product of two Pearson-type VII pdfs. Various structural properties of this distribution are derived, including its cdf, moments, mean deviation about the mean, mean deviation about the median, entropy, asymptotic distribution of the extreme order statistics, maximum likelihood estimates and the Fisher information matrix. Finally, an application to a Bayesian testing problem is illustrated.

Spatiotemporal modeling of PM2.5 concentrations at the national scale combining land use regression and Bayesian maximum entropy in China.

PubMed

Chen, Li; Gao, Shuang; Zhang, Hui; Sun, Yanling; Ma, Zhenxing; Vedal, Sverre; Mao, Jian; Bai, Zhipeng

2018-05-03

Concentrations of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) are relatively high in China. Estimation of PM 2.5 exposure is complex because PM 2.5 exhibits complex spatiotemporal patterns. To improve the validity of exposure predictions, several methods have been developed and applied worldwide. A hybrid approach combining a land use regression (LUR) model and Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) interpolation of the LUR space-time residuals were developed to estimate the PM 2.5 concentrations on a national scale in China. This hybrid model could potentially provide more valid predictions than a commonly-used LUR model. The LUR/BME model had good performance characteristics, with R 2  = 0.82 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 4.6 μg/m 3 . Prediction errors of the LUR/BME model were reduced by incorporating soft data accounting for data uncertainty, with the R 2 increasing by 6%. The performance of LUR/BME is better than OK/BME. The LUR/BME model is the most accurate fine spatial scale PM 2.5 model developed to date for China. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Maximum entropy formalism for the analytic continuation of matrix-valued Green's functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kraberger, Gernot J.; Triebl, Robert; Zingl, Manuel; Aichhorn, Markus

2017-10-01

We present a generalization of the maximum entropy method to the analytic continuation of matrix-valued Green's functions. To treat off-diagonal elements correctly based on Bayesian probability theory, the entropy term has to be extended for spectral functions that are possibly negative in some frequency ranges. In that way, all matrix elements of the Green's function matrix can be analytically continued; we introduce a computationally cheap element-wise method for this purpose. However, this method cannot ensure important constraints on the mathematical properties of the resulting spectral functions, namely positive semidefiniteness and Hermiticity. To improve on this, we present a full matrix formalism, where all matrix elements are treated simultaneously. We show the capabilities of these methods using insulating and metallic dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT) Green's functions as test cases. Finally, we apply the methods to realistic material calculations for LaTiO3, where off-diagonal matrix elements in the Green's function appear due to the distorted crystal structure.

A spatiotemporal dengue fever early warning model accounting for nonlinear associations with meteorological factors: a Bayesian maximum entropy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chien, Lung-Chang

2014-05-01

Dengue fever has been identified as one of the most widespread vector-borne diseases in tropical and sub-tropical. In the last decade, dengue is an emerging infectious disease epidemic in Taiwan especially in the southern area where have annually high incidences. For the purpose of disease prevention and control, an early warning system is urgently needed. Previous studies have showed significant relationships between climate variables, in particular, rainfall and temperature, and the temporal epidemic patterns of dengue cases. However, the transmission of the dengue fever is a complex interactive process that mostly understated the composite space-time effects of dengue fever. This study proposes developing a one-week ahead warning system of dengue fever epidemics in the southern Taiwan that considered nonlinear associations between weekly dengue cases and meteorological factors across space and time. The early warning system based on an integration of distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and stochastic Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis. The study identified the most significant meteorological measures including weekly minimum temperature and maximum 24-hour rainfall with continuous 15-week lagged time to dengue cases variation under condition of uncertainty. Subsequently, the combination of nonlinear lagged effects of climate variables and space-time dependence function is implemented via a Bayesian framework to predict dengue fever occurrences in the southern Taiwan during 2012. The result shows the early warning system is useful for providing potential outbreak spatio-temporal prediction of dengue fever distribution. In conclusion, the proposed approach can provide a practical disease control tool for environmental regulators seeking more effective strategies for dengue fever prevention.

A general Bayesian image reconstruction algorithm with entropy prior: Preliminary application to HST data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunez, Jorge; Llacer, Jorge

1993-10-01

This paper describes a general Bayesian iterative algorithm with entropy prior for image reconstruction. It solves the cases of both pure Poisson data and Poisson data with Gaussian readout noise. The algorithm maintains positivity of the solution; it includes case-specific prior information (default map) and flatfield corrections; it removes background and can be accelerated to be faster than the Richardson-Lucy algorithm. In order to determine the hyperparameter that balances the entropy and liklihood terms in the Bayesian approach, we have used a liklihood cross-validation technique. Cross-validation is more robust than other methods because it is less demanding in terms of the knowledge of exact data characteristics and of the point-spread function. We have used the algorithm to reconstruct successfully images obtained in different space-and ground-based imaging situations. It has been possible to recover most of the original intended capabilities of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) wide field and planetary camera (WFPC) and faint object camera (FOC) from images obtained in their present state. Semireal simulations for the future wide field planetary camera 2 show that even after the repair of the spherical abberration problem, image reconstruction can play a key role in improving the resolution of the cameras, well beyond the design of the Hubble instruments. We also show that ground-based images can be reconstructed successfully with the algorithm. A technique which consists of dividing the CCD observations into two frames, with one-half the exposure time each, emerges as a recommended procedure for the utilization of the described algorithms. We have compared our technique with two commonly used reconstruction algorithms: the Richardson-Lucy and the Cambridge maximum entropy algorithms.

Halo-independence with quantified maximum entropy at DAMA/LIBRA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fowlie, Andrew, E-mail: andrew.j.fowlie@googlemail.com

2017-10-01

Using the DAMA/LIBRA anomaly as an example, we formalise the notion of halo-independence in the context of Bayesian statistics and quantified maximum entropy. We consider an infinite set of possible profiles, weighted by an entropic prior and constrained by a likelihood describing noisy measurements of modulated moments by DAMA/LIBRA. Assuming an isotropic dark matter (DM) profile in the galactic rest frame, we find the most plausible DM profiles and predictions for unmodulated signal rates at DAMA/LIBRA. The entropic prior contains an a priori unknown regularisation factor, β, that describes the strength of our conviction that the profile is approximately Maxwellian.more » By varying β, we smoothly interpolate between a halo-independent and a halo-dependent analysis, thus exploring the impact of prior information about the DM profile.« less

Estimation of Fine Particulate Matter in Taipei Using Landuse Regression and Bayesian Maximum Entropy Methods

PubMed Central

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Wang, Chih-Hsih; Liu, Ming-Che; Kuo, Yi-Ming

2011-01-01

Fine airborne particulate matter (PM2.5) has adverse effects on human health. Assessing the long-term effects of PM2.5 exposure on human health and ecology is often limited by a lack of reliable PM2.5 measurements. In Taipei, PM2.5 levels were not systematically measured until August, 2005. Due to the popularity of geographic information systems (GIS), the landuse regression method has been widely used in the spatial estimation of PM concentrations. This method accounts for the potential contributing factors of the local environment, such as traffic volume. Geostatistical methods, on other hand, account for the spatiotemporal dependence among the observations of ambient pollutants. This study assesses the performance of the landuse regression model for the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 in the Taipei area. Specifically, this study integrates the landuse regression model with the geostatistical approach within the framework of the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method. The resulting epistemic framework can assimilate knowledge bases including: (a) empirical-based spatial trends of PM concentration based on landuse regression, (b) the spatio-temporal dependence among PM observation information, and (c) site-specific PM observations. The proposed approach performs the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 levels in the Taipei area (Taiwan) from 2005–2007. PMID:21776223

Estimation of Groundwater Radon in North Carolina Using Land Use Regression and Bayesian Maximum Entropy.

PubMed

Messier, Kyle P; Campbell, Ted; Bradley, Philip J; Serre, Marc L

2015-08-18

Radon ((222)Rn) is a naturally occurring chemically inert, colorless, and odorless radioactive gas produced from the decay of uranium ((238)U), which is ubiquitous in rocks and soils worldwide. Exposure to (222)Rn is likely the second leading cause of lung cancer after cigarette smoking via inhalation; however, exposure through untreated groundwater is also a contributing factor to both inhalation and ingestion routes. A land use regression (LUR) model for groundwater (222)Rn with anisotropic geological and (238)U based explanatory variables is developed, which helps elucidate the factors contributing to elevated (222)Rn across North Carolina. The LUR is also integrated into the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) geostatistical framework to increase accuracy and produce a point-level LUR-BME model of groundwater (222)Rn across North Carolina including prediction uncertainty. The LUR-BME model of groundwater (222)Rn results in a leave-one out cross-validation r(2) of 0.46 (Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.68), effectively predicting within the spatial covariance range. Modeled results of (222)Rn concentrations show variability among intrusive felsic geological formations likely due to average bedrock (238)U defined on the basis of overlying stream-sediment (238)U concentrations that is a widely distributed consistently analyzed point-source data.

Lattice NRQCD study of S- and P-wave bottomonium states in a thermal medium with Nf=2 +1 light flavors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Seyong; Petreczky, Peter; Rothkopf, Alexander

2015-03-01

We investigate the properties of S - and P -wave bottomonium states in the vicinity of the deconfinement transition temperature. The light degrees of freedom are represented by dynamical lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) configurations of the HotQCD collaboration with Nf=2 +1 flavors. Bottomonium correlators are obtained from bottom quark propagators, computed in nonrelativistic QCD under the background of these gauge field configurations. The spectral functions for the 3S1 (ϒ ) and 3P1 (χb 1) channel are extracted from the Euclidean time correlators using a novel Bayesian approach in the temperature region 140 MeV ≤T ≤249 MeV and the results are contrasted to those from the standard maximum entropy method. We find that the new Bayesian approach is far superior to the maximum entropy method. It enables us to study reliably the presence or absence of the lowest state signal in the spectral function of a certain channel, even under the limitations present in the finite temperature setup. We find that χb 1 survives up to T =249 MeV , the highest temperature considered in our study, and put stringent constraints on the size of the medium modification of ϒ and χb 1 states.

Estimation of fine particulate matter in Taipei using landuse regression and bayesian maximum entropy methods.

PubMed

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Wang, Chih-Hsih; Liu, Ming-Che; Kuo, Yi-Ming

2011-06-01

Fine airborne particulate matter (PM2.5) has adverse effects on human health. Assessing the long-term effects of PM2.5 exposure on human health and ecology is often limited by a lack of reliable PM2.5 measurements. In Taipei, PM2.5 levels were not systematically measured until August, 2005. Due to the popularity of geographic information systems (GIS), the landuse regression method has been widely used in the spatial estimation of PM concentrations. This method accounts for the potential contributing factors of the local environment, such as traffic volume. Geostatistical methods, on other hand, account for the spatiotemporal dependence among the observations of ambient pollutants. This study assesses the performance of the landuse regression model for the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 in the Taipei area. Specifically, this study integrates the landuse regression model with the geostatistical approach within the framework of the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method. The resulting epistemic framework can assimilate knowledge bases including: (a) empirical-based spatial trends of PM concentration based on landuse regression, (b) the spatio-temporal dependence among PM observation information, and (c) site-specific PM observations. The proposed approach performs the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 levels in the Taipei area (Taiwan) from 2005-2007.

Bayesian maximum entropy integration of ozone observations and model predictions: an application for attainment demonstration in North Carolina.

PubMed

de Nazelle, Audrey; Arunachalam, Saravanan; Serre, Marc L

2010-08-01

States in the USA are required to demonstrate future compliance of criteria air pollutant standards by using both air quality monitors and model outputs. In the case of ozone, the demonstration tests aim at relying heavily on measured values, due to their perceived objectivity and enforceable quality. Weight given to numerical models is diminished by integrating them in the calculations only in a relative sense. For unmonitored locations, the EPA has suggested the use of a spatial interpolation technique to assign current values. We demonstrate that this approach may lead to erroneous assignments of nonattainment and may make it difficult for States to establish future compliance. We propose a method that combines different sources of information to map air pollution, using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) Framework. The approach gives precedence to measured values and integrates modeled data as a function of model performance. We demonstrate this approach in North Carolina, using the State's ozone monitoring network in combination with outputs from the Multiscale Air Quality Simulation Platform (MAQSIP) modeling system. We show that the BME data integration approach, compared to a spatial interpolation of measured data, improves the accuracy and the precision of ozone estimations across the state.

The moving-window Bayesian maximum entropy framework: estimation of PM(2.5) yearly average concentration across the contiguous United States.

PubMed

Akita, Yasuyuki; Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; Serre, Marc L

2012-09-01

Geostatistical methods are widely used in estimating long-term exposures for epidemiological studies on air pollution, despite their limited capabilities to handle spatial non-stationarity over large geographic domains and the uncertainty associated with missing monitoring data. We developed a moving-window (MW) Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method and applied this framework to estimate fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) yearly average concentrations over the contiguous US. The MW approach accounts for the spatial non-stationarity, while the BME method rigorously processes the uncertainty associated with data missingness in the air-monitoring system. In the cross-validation analyses conducted on a set of randomly selected complete PM(2.5) data in 2003 and on simulated data with different degrees of missing data, we demonstrate that the MW approach alone leads to at least 17.8% reduction in mean square error (MSE) in estimating the yearly PM(2.5). Moreover, the MWBME method further reduces the MSE by 8.4-43.7%, with the proportion of incomplete data increased from 18.3% to 82.0%. The MWBME approach leads to significant reductions in estimation error and thus is recommended for epidemiological studies investigating the effect of long-term exposure to PM(2.5) across large geographical domains with expected spatial non-stationarity.

Spatiotemporal analysis and mapping of oral cancer risk in changhua county (taiwan): an application of generalized bayesian maximum entropy method.

PubMed

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chiang, Chi-Ting; Lin, Shu-De; Chang, Tsun-Kuo

2010-02-01

Incidence rate of oral cancer in Changhua County is the highest among the 23 counties of Taiwan during 2001. However, in health data analysis, crude or adjusted incidence rates of a rare event (e.g., cancer) for small populations often exhibit high variances and are, thus, less reliable. We proposed a generalized Bayesian Maximum Entropy (GBME) analysis of spatiotemporal disease mapping under conditions of considerable data uncertainty. GBME was used to study the oral cancer population incidence in Changhua County (Taiwan). Methodologically, GBME is based on an epistematics principles framework and generates spatiotemporal estimates of oral cancer incidence rates. In a way, it accounts for the multi-sourced uncertainty of rates, including small population effects, and the composite space-time dependence of rare events in terms of an extended Poisson-based semivariogram. The results showed that GBME analysis alleviates the noises of oral cancer data from population size effect. Comparing to the raw incidence data, the maps of GBME-estimated results can identify high risk oral cancer regions in Changhua County, where the prevalence of betel quid chewing and cigarette smoking is relatively higher than the rest of the areas. GBME method is a valuable tool for spatiotemporal disease mapping under conditions of uncertainty. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Maximum Entropy space/time estimation of surface water chloride in Maryland using river distances.

PubMed

Jat, Prahlad; Serre, Marc L

2016-12-01

Widespread contamination of surface water chloride is an emerging environmental concern. Consequently accurate and cost-effective methods are needed to estimate chloride along all river miles of potentially contaminated watersheds. Here we introduce a Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) space/time geostatistical estimation framework that uses river distances, and we compare it with Euclidean BME to estimate surface water chloride from 2005 to 2014 in the Gunpowder-Patapsco, Severn, and Patuxent subbasins in Maryland. River BME improves the cross-validation R 2 by 23.67% over Euclidean BME, and river BME maps are significantly different than Euclidean BME maps, indicating that it is important to use river BME maps to assess water quality impairment. The river BME maps of chloride concentration show wide contamination throughout Baltimore and Columbia-Ellicott cities, the disappearance of a clean buffer separating these two large urban areas, and the emergence of multiple localized pockets of contamination in surrounding areas. The number of impaired river miles increased by 0.55% per year in 2005-2009 and by 1.23% per year in 2011-2014, corresponding to a marked acceleration of the rate of impairment. Our results support the need for control measures and increased monitoring of unassessed river miles. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Maximum Entropy Approach in Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

PubMed

Farsani, Zahra Amini; Schmid, Volker J

2017-01-01

In the estimation of physiological kinetic parameters from Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging (DCE-MRI) data, the determination of the arterial input function (AIF) plays a key role. This paper proposes a Bayesian method to estimate the physiological parameters of DCE-MRI along with the AIF in situations, where no measurement of the AIF is available. In the proposed algorithm, the maximum entropy method (MEM) is combined with the maximum a posterior approach (MAP). To this end, MEM is used to specify a prior probability distribution of the unknown AIF. The ability of this method to estimate the AIF is validated using the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Subsequently, the kinetic parameters can be estimated with MAP. The proposed algorithm is evaluated with a data set from a breast cancer MRI study. The application shows that the AIF can reliably be determined from the DCE-MRI data using MEM. Kinetic parameters can be estimated subsequently. The maximum entropy method is a powerful tool to reconstructing images from many types of data. This method is useful for generating the probability distribution based on given information. The proposed method gives an alternative way to assess the input function from the existing data. The proposed method allows a good fit of the data and therefore a better estimation of the kinetic parameters. In the end, this allows for a more reliable use of DCE-MRI. Schattauer GmbH.

Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting.

PubMed

Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen

2015-12-28

We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.

Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen

2015-12-01

We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.

The NIFTy way of Bayesian signal inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selig, Marco

2014-12-01

We introduce NIFTy, "Numerical Information Field Theory", a software package for the development of Bayesian signal inference algorithms that operate independently from any underlying spatial grid and its resolution. A large number of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods for 1D signal reconstruction, 2D imaging, as well as 3D tomography, appear formally similar, but one often finds individualized implementations that are neither flexible nor easily transferable. Signal inference in the framework of NIFTy can be done in an abstract way, such that algorithms, prototyped in 1D, can be applied to real world problems in higher-dimensional settings. NIFTy as a versatile library is applicable and already has been applied in 1D, 2D, 3D and spherical settings. A recent application is the D3PO algorithm targeting the non-trivial task of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations in high energy astronomy.

Quantifying uncertainty in soot volume fraction estimates using Bayesian inference of auto-correlated laser-induced incandescence measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadwin, Paul J.; Sipkens, T. A.; Thomson, K. A.; Liu, F.; Daun, K. J.

2016-01-01

Auto-correlated laser-induced incandescence (AC-LII) infers the soot volume fraction (SVF) of soot particles by comparing the spectral incandescence from laser-energized particles to the pyrometrically inferred peak soot temperature. This calculation requires detailed knowledge of model parameters such as the absorption function of soot, which may vary with combustion chemistry, soot age, and the internal structure of the soot. This work presents a Bayesian methodology to quantify such uncertainties. This technique treats the additional "nuisance" model parameters, including the soot absorption function, as stochastic variables and incorporates the current state of knowledge of these parameters into the inference process through maximum entropy priors. While standard AC-LII analysis provides a point estimate of the SVF, Bayesian techniques infer the posterior probability density, which will allow scientists and engineers to better assess the reliability of AC-LII inferred SVFs in the context of environmental regulations and competing diagnostics.

The moving-window Bayesian Maximum Entropy framework: Estimation of PM2.5 yearly average concentration across the contiguous United States

PubMed Central

Akita, Yasuyuki; Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; Serre, Marc L.

2013-01-01

Geostatistical methods are widely used in estimating long-term exposures for air pollution epidemiological studies, despite their limited capabilities to handle spatial non-stationarity over large geographic domains and uncertainty associated with missing monitoring data. We developed a moving-window (MW) Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method and applied this framework to estimate fine particulate matter (PM2.5) yearly average concentrations over the contiguous U.S. The MW approach accounts for the spatial non-stationarity, while the BME method rigorously processes the uncertainty associated with data missingnees in the air monitoring system. In the cross-validation analyses conducted on a set of randomly selected complete PM2.5 data in 2003 and on simulated data with different degrees of missing data, we demonstrate that the MW approach alone leads to at least 17.8% reduction in mean square error (MSE) in estimating the yearly PM2.5. Moreover, the MWBME method further reduces the MSE by 8.4% to 43.7% with the proportion of incomplete data increased from 18.3% to 82.0%. The MWBME approach leads to significant reductions in estimation error and thus is recommended for epidemiological studies investigating the effect of long-term exposure to PM2.5 across large geographical domains with expected spatial non-stationarity. PMID:22739679

Efficient Bayesian experimental design for contaminant source identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Zeng, L.

2013-12-01

In this study, an efficient full Bayesian approach is developed for the optimal sampling well location design and source parameter identification of groundwater contaminants. An information measure, i.e., the relative entropy, is employed to quantify the information gain from indirect concentration measurements in identifying unknown source parameters such as the release time, strength and location. In this approach, the sampling location that gives the maximum relative entropy is selected as the optimal one. Once the sampling location is determined, a Bayesian approach based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to estimate unknown source parameters. In both the design and estimation, the contaminant transport equation is required to be solved many times to evaluate the likelihood. To reduce the computational burden, an interpolation method based on the adaptive sparse grid is utilized to construct a surrogate for the contaminant transport. The approximated likelihood can be evaluated directly from the surrogate, which greatly accelerates the design and estimation process. The accuracy and efficiency of our approach are demonstrated through numerical case studies. Compared with the traditional optimal design, which is based on the Gaussian linear assumption, the method developed in this study can cope with arbitrary nonlinearity. It can be used to assist in groundwater monitor network design and identification of unknown contaminant sources. Contours of the expected information gain. The optimal observing location corresponds to the maximum value. Posterior marginal probability densities of unknown parameters, the thick solid black lines are for the designed location. For comparison, other 7 lines are for randomly chosen locations. The true values are denoted by vertical lines. It is obvious that the unknown parameters are estimated better with the desinged location.

Maximum entropy reconstruction of poloidal magnetic field and radial electric field profiles in tokamaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yihang; Xiao, Chijie; Yang, Xiaoyi; Wang, Tianbo; Xu, Tianchao; Yu, Yi; Xu, Min; Wang, Long; Lin, Chen; Wang, Xiaogang

2017-10-01

The Laser-driven Ion beam trace probe (LITP) is a new diagnostic method for measuring poloidal magnetic field (Bp) and radial electric field (Er) in tokamaks. LITP injects a laser-driven ion beam into the tokamak, and Bp and Er profiles can be reconstructed using tomography methods. A reconstruction code has been developed to validate the LITP theory, and both 2D reconstruction of Bp and simultaneous reconstruction of Bp and Er have been attained. To reconstruct from experimental data with noise, Maximum Entropy and Gaussian-Bayesian tomography methods were applied and improved according to the characteristics of the LITP problem. With these improved methods, a reconstruction error level below 15% has been attained with a data noise level of 10%. These methods will be further tested and applied in the following LITP experiments. Supported by the ITER-CHINA program 2015GB120001, CHINA MOST under 2012YQ030142 and National Natural Science Foundation Abstract of China under 11575014 and 11375053.

Logarithmic Laplacian Prior Based Bayesian Inverse Synthetic Aperture Radar Imaging.

PubMed

Zhang, Shuanghui; Liu, Yongxiang; Li, Xiang; Bi, Guoan

2016-04-28

This paper presents a novel Inverse Synthetic Aperture Radar Imaging (ISAR) algorithm based on a new sparse prior, known as the logarithmic Laplacian prior. The newly proposed logarithmic Laplacian prior has a narrower main lobe with higher tail values than the Laplacian prior, which helps to achieve performance improvement on sparse representation. The logarithmic Laplacian prior is used for ISAR imaging within the Bayesian framework to achieve better focused radar image. In the proposed method of ISAR imaging, the phase errors are jointly estimated based on the minimum entropy criterion to accomplish autofocusing. The maximum a posterior (MAP) estimation and the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) are utilized to estimate the model parameters to avoid manually tuning process. Additionally, the fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and Hadamard product are used to minimize the required computational efficiency. Experimental results based on both simulated and measured data validate that the proposed algorithm outperforms the traditional sparse ISAR imaging algorithms in terms of resolution improvement and noise suppression.

Embedding the results of focussed Bayesian fusion into a global context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sander, Jennifer; Heizmann, Michael

2014-05-01

Bayesian statistics offers a well-founded and powerful fusion methodology also for the fusion of heterogeneous information sources. However, except in special cases, the needed posterior distribution is not analytically derivable. As consequence, Bayesian fusion may cause unacceptably high computational and storage costs in practice. Local Bayesian fusion approaches aim at reducing the complexity of the Bayesian fusion methodology significantly. This is done by concentrating the actual Bayesian fusion on the potentially most task relevant parts of the domain of the Properties of Interest. Our research on these approaches is motivated by an analogy to criminal investigations where criminalists pursue clues also only locally. This publication follows previous publications on a special local Bayesian fusion technique called focussed Bayesian fusion. Here, the actual calculation of the posterior distribution gets completely restricted to a suitably chosen local context. By this, the global posterior distribution is not completely determined. Strategies for using the results of a focussed Bayesian analysis appropriately are needed. In this publication, we primarily contrast different ways of embedding the results of focussed Bayesian fusion explicitly into a global context. To obtain a unique global posterior distribution, we analyze the application of the Maximum Entropy Principle that has been shown to be successfully applicable in metrology and in different other areas. To address the special need for making further decisions subsequently to the actual fusion task, we further analyze criteria for decision making under partial information.

Inferring Markov chains: Bayesian estimation, model comparison, entropy rate, and out-of-class modeling.

PubMed

Strelioff, Christopher C; Crutchfield, James P; Hübler, Alfred W

2007-07-01

Markov chains are a natural and well understood tool for describing one-dimensional patterns in time or space. We show how to infer kth order Markov chains, for arbitrary k , from finite data by applying Bayesian methods to both parameter estimation and model-order selection. Extending existing results for multinomial models of discrete data, we connect inference to statistical mechanics through information-theoretic (type theory) techniques. We establish a direct relationship between Bayesian evidence and the partition function which allows for straightforward calculation of the expectation and variance of the conditional relative entropy and the source entropy rate. Finally, we introduce a method that uses finite data-size scaling with model-order comparison to infer the structure of out-of-class processes.

Bayesian view of single-qubit clocks, and an energy versus accuracy tradeoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopalkrishnan, Manoj; Kandula, Varshith; Sriram, Praveen; Deshpande, Abhishek; Muralidharan, Bhaskaran

2017-09-01

We bring a Bayesian approach to the analysis of clocks. Using exponential distributions as priors for clocks, we analyze how well one can keep time with a single qubit freely precessing under a magnetic field. We find that, at least with a single qubit, quantum mechanics does not allow exact timekeeping, in contrast to classical mechanics, which does. We find the design of the single-qubit clock that leads to maximum accuracy. Further, we find an energy versus accuracy tradeoff—the energy cost is at least kBT times the improvement in accuracy as measured by the entropy reduction in going from the prior distribution to the posterior distribution. We propose a physical realization of the single-qubit clock using charge transport across a capacitively coupled quantum dot.

Identification of Watershed-scale Critical Source Areas Using Bayesian Maximum Entropy Spatiotemporal Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roostaee, M.; Deng, Z.

2017-12-01

The states' environmental agencies are required by The Clean Water Act to assess all waterbodies and evaluate potential sources of impairments. Spatial and temporal distributions of water quality parameters are critical in identifying Critical Source Areas (CSAs). However, due to limitations in monetary resources and a large number of waterbodies, available monitoring stations are typically sparse with intermittent periods of data collection. Hence, scarcity of water quality data is a major obstacle in addressing sources of pollution through management strategies. In this study spatiotemporal Bayesian Maximum Entropy method (BME) is employed to model the inherent temporal and spatial variability of measured water quality indicators such as Dissolved Oxygen (DO) concentration for Turkey Creek Watershed. Turkey Creek is located in northern Louisiana and has been listed in 303(d) list for DO impairment since 2014 in Louisiana Water Quality Inventory Reports due to agricultural practices. BME method is proved to provide more accurate estimates than the methods of purely spatial analysis by incorporating space/time distribution and uncertainty in available measured soft and hard data. This model would be used to estimate DO concentration at unmonitored locations and times and subsequently identifying CSAs. The USDA's crop-specific land cover data layers of the watershed were then used to determine those practices/changes that led to low DO concentration in identified CSAs. Primary results revealed that cultivation of corn and soybean as well as urban runoff are main contributing sources in low dissolved oxygen in Turkey Creek Watershed.

A Bayesian maximum entropy-based methodology for optimal spatiotemporal design of groundwater monitoring networks.

PubMed

Hosseini, Marjan; Kerachian, Reza

2017-09-01

This paper presents a new methodology for analyzing the spatiotemporal variability of water table levels and redesigning a groundwater level monitoring network (GLMN) using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) technique and a multi-criteria decision-making approach based on ordered weighted averaging (OWA). The spatial sampling is determined using a hexagonal gridding pattern and a new method, which is proposed to assign a removal priority number to each pre-existing station. To design temporal sampling, a new approach is also applied to consider uncertainty caused by lack of information. In this approach, different time lag values are tested by regarding another source of information, which is simulation result of a numerical groundwater flow model. Furthermore, to incorporate the existing uncertainties in available monitoring data, the flexibility of the BME interpolation technique is taken into account in applying soft data and improving the accuracy of the calculations. To examine the methodology, it is applied to the Dehgolan plain in northwestern Iran. Based on the results, a configuration of 33 monitoring stations for a regular hexagonal grid of side length 3600 m is proposed, in which the time lag between samples is equal to 5 weeks. Since the variance estimation errors of the BME method are almost identical for redesigned and existing networks, the redesigned monitoring network is more cost-effective and efficient than the existing monitoring network with 52 stations and monthly sampling frequency.

Algorithms for optimized maximum entropy and diagnostic tools for analytic continuation.

PubMed

Bergeron, Dominic; Tremblay, A-M S

2016-08-01

Analytic continuation of numerical data obtained in imaginary time or frequency has become an essential part of many branches of quantum computational physics. It is, however, an ill-conditioned procedure and thus a hard numerical problem. The maximum-entropy approach, based on Bayesian inference, is the most widely used method to tackle that problem. Although the approach is well established and among the most reliable and efficient ones, useful developments of the method and of its implementation are still possible. In addition, while a few free software implementations are available, a well-documented, optimized, general purpose, and user-friendly software dedicated to that specific task is still lacking. Here we analyze all aspects of the implementation that are critical for accuracy and speed and present a highly optimized approach to maximum entropy. Original algorithmic and conceptual contributions include (1) numerical approximations that yield a computational complexity that is almost independent of temperature and spectrum shape (including sharp Drude peaks in broad background, for example) while ensuring quantitative accuracy of the result whenever precision of the data is sufficient, (2) a robust method of choosing the entropy weight α that follows from a simple consistency condition of the approach and the observation that information- and noise-fitting regimes can be identified clearly from the behavior of χ^{2} with respect to α, and (3) several diagnostics to assess the reliability of the result. Benchmarks with test spectral functions of different complexity and an example with an actual physical simulation are presented. Our implementation, which covers most typical cases for fermions, bosons, and response functions, is available as an open source, user-friendly software.

Algorithms for optimized maximum entropy and diagnostic tools for analytic continuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergeron, Dominic; Tremblay, A.-M. S.

2016-08-01

Analytic continuation of numerical data obtained in imaginary time or frequency has become an essential part of many branches of quantum computational physics. It is, however, an ill-conditioned procedure and thus a hard numerical problem. The maximum-entropy approach, based on Bayesian inference, is the most widely used method to tackle that problem. Although the approach is well established and among the most reliable and efficient ones, useful developments of the method and of its implementation are still possible. In addition, while a few free software implementations are available, a well-documented, optimized, general purpose, and user-friendly software dedicated to that specific task is still lacking. Here we analyze all aspects of the implementation that are critical for accuracy and speed and present a highly optimized approach to maximum entropy. Original algorithmic and conceptual contributions include (1) numerical approximations that yield a computational complexity that is almost independent of temperature and spectrum shape (including sharp Drude peaks in broad background, for example) while ensuring quantitative accuracy of the result whenever precision of the data is sufficient, (2) a robust method of choosing the entropy weight α that follows from a simple consistency condition of the approach and the observation that information- and noise-fitting regimes can be identified clearly from the behavior of χ2 with respect to α , and (3) several diagnostics to assess the reliability of the result. Benchmarks with test spectral functions of different complexity and an example with an actual physical simulation are presented. Our implementation, which covers most typical cases for fermions, bosons, and response functions, is available as an open source, user-friendly software.

Estimation of typhoon rainfall in GaoPing River: A Multivariate Maximum Entropy Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pei-Jui, Wu; Hwa-Lung, Yu

2016-04-01

The heavy rainfall from typhoons is the main factor of the natural disaster in Taiwan, which causes the significant loss of human lives and properties. Statistically average 3.5 typhoons invade Taiwan every year, and the serious typhoon, Morakot in 2009, impacted Taiwan in recorded history. Because the duration, path and intensity of typhoon, also affect the temporal and spatial rainfall type in specific region , finding the characteristics of the typhoon rainfall type is advantageous when we try to estimate the quantity of rainfall. This study developed a rainfall prediction model and can be divided three parts. First, using the EEOF(extended empirical orthogonal function) to classify the typhoon events, and decompose the standard rainfall type of all stations of each typhoon event into the EOF and PC(principal component). So we can classify the typhoon events which vary similarly in temporally and spatially as the similar typhoon types. Next, according to the classification above, we construct the PDF(probability density function) in different space and time by means of using the multivariate maximum entropy from the first to forth moment statistically. Therefore, we can get the probability of each stations of each time. Final we use the BME(Bayesian Maximum Entropy method) to construct the typhoon rainfall prediction model , and to estimate the rainfall for the case of GaoPing river which located in south of Taiwan.This study could be useful for typhoon rainfall predictions in future and suitable to government for the typhoon disaster prevention .

Bayesian extraction of the parton distribution amplitude from the Bethe-Salpeter wave function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Fei; Chang, Lei; Liu, Yu-xin

2017-07-01

We propose a new numerical method to compute the parton distribution amplitude (PDA) from the Euclidean Bethe-Salpeter wave function. The essential step is to extract the weight function in the Nakanishi representation of the Bethe-Salpeter wave function in Euclidean space, which is an ill-posed inversion problem, via the maximum entropy method (MEM). The Nakanishi weight function as well as the corresponding light-front parton distribution amplitude (PDA) can be well determined. We confirm prior work on PDA computations, which was based on different methods.

Estimating Bayesian Phylogenetic Information Content

PubMed Central

Lewis, Paul O.; Chen, Ming-Hui; Kuo, Lynn; Lewis, Louise A.; Fučíková, Karolina; Neupane, Suman; Wang, Yu-Bo; Shi, Daoyuan

2016-01-01

Measuring the phylogenetic information content of data has a long history in systematics. Here we explore a Bayesian approach to information content estimation. The entropy of the posterior distribution compared with the entropy of the prior distribution provides a natural way to measure information content. If the data have no information relevant to ranking tree topologies beyond the information supplied by the prior, the posterior and prior will be identical. Information in data discourages consideration of some hypotheses allowed by the prior, resulting in a posterior distribution that is more concentrated (has lower entropy) than the prior. We focus on measuring information about tree topology using marginal posterior distributions of tree topologies. We show that both the accuracy and the computational efficiency of topological information content estimation improve with use of the conditional clade distribution, which also allows topological information content to be partitioned by clade. We explore two important applications of our method: providing a compelling definition of saturation and detecting conflict among data partitions that can negatively affect analyses of concatenated data. [Bayesian; concatenation; conditional clade distribution; entropy; information; phylogenetics; saturation.] PMID:27155008

Spatiotemporal modeling of ozone levels in Quebec (Canada): a comparison of kriging, land-use regression (LUR), and combined Bayesian maximum entropy-LUR approaches.

PubMed

Adam-Poupart, Ariane; Brand, Allan; Fournier, Michel; Jerrett, Michael; Smargiassi, Audrey

2014-09-01

Ambient air ozone (O3) is a pulmonary irritant that has been associated with respiratory health effects including increased lung inflammation and permeability, airway hyperreactivity, respiratory symptoms, and decreased lung function. Estimation of O3 exposure is a complex task because the pollutant exhibits complex spatiotemporal patterns. To refine the quality of exposure estimation, various spatiotemporal methods have been developed worldwide. We sought to compare the accuracy of three spatiotemporal models to predict summer ground-level O3 in Quebec, Canada. We developed a land-use mixed-effects regression (LUR) model based on readily available data (air quality and meteorological monitoring data, road networks information, latitude), a Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) model incorporating both O3 monitoring station data and the land-use mixed model outputs (BME-LUR), and a kriging method model based only on available O3 monitoring station data (BME kriging). We performed leave-one-station-out cross-validation and visually assessed the predictive capability of each model by examining the mean temporal and spatial distributions of the average estimated errors. The BME-LUR was the best predictive model (R2 = 0.653) with the lowest root mean-square error (RMSE ;7.06 ppb), followed by the LUR model (R2 = 0.466, RMSE = 8.747) and the BME kriging model (R2 = 0.414, RMSE = 9.164). Our findings suggest that errors of estimation in the interpolation of O3 concentrations with BME can be greatly reduced by incorporating outputs from a LUR model developed with readily available data.

Direct 4D reconstruction of parametric images incorporating anato-functional joint entropy.

PubMed

Tang, Jing; Kuwabara, Hiroto; Wong, Dean F; Rahmim, Arman

2010-08-07

We developed an anatomy-guided 4D closed-form algorithm to directly reconstruct parametric images from projection data for (nearly) irreversible tracers. Conventional methods consist of individually reconstructing 2D/3D PET data, followed by graphical analysis on the sequence of reconstructed image frames. The proposed direct reconstruction approach maintains the simplicity and accuracy of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm by extending the system matrix to include the relation between the parametric images and the measured data. A closed-form solution was achieved using a different hidden complete-data formulation within the EM framework. Furthermore, the proposed method was extended to maximum a posterior reconstruction via incorporation of MR image information, taking the joint entropy between MR and parametric PET features as the prior. Using realistic simulated noisy [(11)C]-naltrindole PET and MR brain images/data, the quantitative performance of the proposed methods was investigated. Significant improvements in terms of noise versus bias performance were demonstrated when performing direct parametric reconstruction, and additionally upon extending the algorithm to its Bayesian counterpart using the MR-PET joint entropy measure.

A Bayesian Interpretation of First-Order Phase Transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Sergio; Peralta, Joaquín; Navarrete, Yasmín; González, Diego; Gutiérrez, Gonzalo

2016-03-01

In this work we review the formalism used in describing the thermodynamics of first-order phase transitions from the point of view of maximum entropy inference. We present the concepts of transition temperature, latent heat and entropy difference between phases as emergent from the more fundamental concept of internal energy, after a statistical inference analysis. We explicitly demonstrate this point of view by making inferences on a simple game, resulting in the same formalism as in thermodynamical phase transitions. We show that analogous quantities will inevitably arise in any problem of inferring the result of a yes/no question, given two different states of knowledge and information in the form of expectation values. This exposition may help to clarify the role of these thermodynamical quantities in the context of different first-order phase transitions such as the case of magnetic Hamiltonians (e.g. the Potts model).

Maximum Relative Entropy of Coherence: An Operational Coherence Measure.

PubMed

Bu, Kaifeng; Singh, Uttam; Fei, Shao-Ming; Pati, Arun Kumar; Wu, Junde

2017-10-13

The operational characterization of quantum coherence is the cornerstone in the development of the resource theory of coherence. We introduce a new coherence quantifier based on maximum relative entropy. We prove that the maximum relative entropy of coherence is directly related to the maximum overlap with maximally coherent states under a particular class of operations, which provides an operational interpretation of the maximum relative entropy of coherence. Moreover, we show that, for any coherent state, there are examples of subchannel discrimination problems such that this coherent state allows for a higher probability of successfully discriminating subchannels than that of all incoherent states. This advantage of coherent states in subchannel discrimination can be exactly characterized by the maximum relative entropy of coherence. By introducing a suitable smooth maximum relative entropy of coherence, we prove that the smooth maximum relative entropy of coherence provides a lower bound of one-shot coherence cost, and the maximum relative entropy of coherence is equivalent to the relative entropy of coherence in the asymptotic limit. Similar to the maximum relative entropy of coherence, the minimum relative entropy of coherence has also been investigated. We show that the minimum relative entropy of coherence provides an upper bound of one-shot coherence distillation, and in the asymptotic limit the minimum relative entropy of coherence is equivalent to the relative entropy of coherence.

Inference of missing data and chemical model parameters using experimental statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casey, Tiernan; Najm, Habib

2017-11-01

A method for determining the joint parameter density of Arrhenius rate expressions through the inference of missing experimental data is presented. This approach proposes noisy hypothetical data sets from target experiments and accepts those which agree with the reported statistics, in the form of nominal parameter values and their associated uncertainties. The data exploration procedure is formalized using Bayesian inference, employing maximum entropy and approximate Bayesian computation methods to arrive at a joint density on data and parameters. The method is demonstrated in the context of reactions in the H2-O2 system for predictive modeling of combustion systems of interest. Work supported by the US DOE BES CSGB. Sandia National Labs is a multimission lab managed and operated by Nat. Technology and Eng'g Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell Intl, for the US DOE NCSA under contract DE-NA-0003525.

Bayesian image reconstruction - The pixon and optimal image modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pina, R. K.; Puetter, R. C.

1993-01-01

In this paper we describe the optimal image model, maximum residual likelihood method (OptMRL) for image reconstruction. OptMRL is a Bayesian image reconstruction technique for removing point-spread function blurring. OptMRL uses both a goodness-of-fit criterion (GOF) and an 'image prior', i.e., a function which quantifies the a priori probability of the image. Unlike standard maximum entropy methods, which typically reconstruct the image on the data pixel grid, OptMRL varies the image model in order to find the optimal functional basis with which to represent the image. We show how an optimal basis for image representation can be selected and in doing so, develop the concept of the 'pixon' which is a generalized image cell from which this basis is constructed. By allowing both the image and the image representation to be variable, the OptMRL method greatly increases the volume of solution space over which the image is optimized. Hence the likelihood of the final reconstructed image is greatly increased. For the goodness-of-fit criterion, OptMRL uses the maximum residual likelihood probability distribution introduced previously by Pina and Puetter (1992). This GOF probability distribution, which is based on the spatial autocorrelation of the residuals, has the advantage that it ensures spatially uncorrelated image reconstruction residuals.

Application of Bayesian inference to the study of hierarchical organization in self-organized complex adaptive systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knuth, K. H.

2001-05-01

We consider the application of Bayesian inference to the study of self-organized structures in complex adaptive systems. In particular, we examine the distribution of elements, agents, or processes in systems dominated by hierarchical structure. We demonstrate that results obtained by Caianiello [1] on Hierarchical Modular Systems (HMS) can be found by applying Jaynes' Principle of Group Invariance [2] to a few key assumptions about our knowledge of hierarchical organization. Subsequent application of the Principle of Maximum Entropy allows inferences to be made about specific systems. The utility of the Bayesian method is considered by examining both successes and failures of the hierarchical model. We discuss how Caianiello's original statements suffer from the Mind Projection Fallacy [3] and we restate his assumptions thus widening the applicability of the HMS model. The relationship between inference and statistical physics, described by Jaynes [4], is reiterated with the expectation that this realization will aid the field of complex systems research by moving away from often inappropriate direct application of statistical mechanics to a more encompassing inferential methodology.

Improving Estimations of Spatial Distribution of Soil Respiration Using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy Algorithm and Soil Temperature as Auxiliary Data.

PubMed

Hu, Junguo; Zhou, Jian; Zhou, Guomo; Luo, Yiqi; Xu, Xiaojun; Li, Pingheng; Liang, Junyi

2016-01-01

Soil respiration inherently shows strong spatial variability. It is difficult to obtain an accurate characterization of soil respiration with an insufficient number of monitoring points. However, it is expensive and cumbersome to deploy many sensors. To solve this problem, we proposed employing the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) algorithm, using soil temperature as auxiliary information, to study the spatial distribution of soil respiration. The BME algorithm used the soft data (auxiliary information) effectively to improve the estimation accuracy of the spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration. Based on the functional relationship between soil temperature and soil respiration, the BME algorithm satisfactorily integrated soil temperature data into said spatial distribution. As a means of comparison, we also applied the Ordinary Kriging (OK) and Co-Kriging (Co-OK) methods. The results indicated that the root mean squared errors (RMSEs) and absolute values of bias for both Day 1 and Day 2 were the lowest for the BME method, thus demonstrating its higher estimation accuracy. Further, we compared the performance of the BME algorithm coupled with auxiliary information, namely soil temperature data, and the OK method without auxiliary information in the same study area for 9, 21, and 37 sampled points. The results showed that the RMSEs for the BME algorithm (0.972 and 1.193) were less than those for the OK method (1.146 and 1.539) when the number of sampled points was 9 and 37, respectively. This indicates that the former method using auxiliary information could reduce the required number of sampling points for studying spatial distribution of soil respiration. Thus, the BME algorithm, coupled with soil temperature data, can not only improve the accuracy of soil respiration spatial interpolation but can also reduce the number of sampling points.

Improving Estimations of Spatial Distribution of Soil Respiration Using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy Algorithm and Soil Temperature as Auxiliary Data

PubMed Central

Hu, Junguo; Zhou, Jian; Zhou, Guomo; Luo, Yiqi; Xu, Xiaojun; Li, Pingheng; Liang, Junyi

2016-01-01

Soil respiration inherently shows strong spatial variability. It is difficult to obtain an accurate characterization of soil respiration with an insufficient number of monitoring points. However, it is expensive and cumbersome to deploy many sensors. To solve this problem, we proposed employing the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) algorithm, using soil temperature as auxiliary information, to study the spatial distribution of soil respiration. The BME algorithm used the soft data (auxiliary information) effectively to improve the estimation accuracy of the spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration. Based on the functional relationship between soil temperature and soil respiration, the BME algorithm satisfactorily integrated soil temperature data into said spatial distribution. As a means of comparison, we also applied the Ordinary Kriging (OK) and Co-Kriging (Co-OK) methods. The results indicated that the root mean squared errors (RMSEs) and absolute values of bias for both Day 1 and Day 2 were the lowest for the BME method, thus demonstrating its higher estimation accuracy. Further, we compared the performance of the BME algorithm coupled with auxiliary information, namely soil temperature data, and the OK method without auxiliary information in the same study area for 9, 21, and 37 sampled points. The results showed that the RMSEs for the BME algorithm (0.972 and 1.193) were less than those for the OK method (1.146 and 1.539) when the number of sampled points was 9 and 37, respectively. This indicates that the former method using auxiliary information could reduce the required number of sampling points for studying spatial distribution of soil respiration. Thus, the BME algorithm, coupled with soil temperature data, can not only improve the accuracy of soil respiration spatial interpolation but can also reduce the number of sampling points. PMID:26807579

Spatiotemporal fusion of multiple-satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) products using Bayesian maximum entropy method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Qingxin; Bo, Yanchen; Zhu, Yuxin

2016-04-01

Merging multisensor aerosol optical depth (AOD) products is an effective way to produce more spatiotemporally complete and accurate AOD products. A spatiotemporal statistical data fusion framework based on a Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method was developed for merging satellite AOD products in East Asia. The advantages of the presented merging framework are that it not only utilizes the spatiotemporal autocorrelations but also explicitly incorporates the uncertainties of the AOD products being merged. The satellite AOD products used for merging are the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 5.1 Level-2 AOD products (MOD04_L2) and the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) Deep Blue Level 2 AOD products (SWDB_L2). The results show that the average completeness of the merged AOD data is 95.2%,which is significantly superior to the completeness of MOD04_L2 (22.9%) and SWDB_L2 (20.2%). By comparing the merged AOD to the Aerosol Robotic Network AOD records, the results show that the correlation coefficient (0.75), root-mean-square error (0.29), and mean bias (0.068) of the merged AOD are close to those (the correlation coefficient (0.82), root-mean-square error (0.19), and mean bias (0.059)) of the MODIS AOD. In the regions where both MODIS and SeaWiFS have valid observations, the accuracy of the merged AOD is higher than those of MODIS and SeaWiFS AODs. Even in regions where both MODIS and SeaWiFS AODs are missing, the accuracy of the merged AOD is also close to the accuracy of the regions where both MODIS and SeaWiFS have valid observations.

Quantile-based Bayesian maximum entropy approach for spatiotemporal modeling of ambient air quality levels.

PubMed

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Wang, Chih-Hsin

2013-02-05

Understanding the daily changes in ambient air quality concentrations is important to the assessing human exposure and environmental health. However, the fine temporal scales (e.g., hourly) involved in this assessment often lead to high variability in air quality concentrations. This is because of the complex short-term physical and chemical mechanisms among the pollutants. Consequently, high heterogeneity is usually present in not only the averaged pollution levels, but also the intraday variance levels of the daily observations of ambient concentration across space and time. This characteristic decreases the estimation performance of common techniques. This study proposes a novel quantile-based Bayesian maximum entropy (QBME) method to account for the nonstationary and nonhomogeneous characteristics of ambient air pollution dynamics. The QBME method characterizes the spatiotemporal dependence among the ambient air quality levels based on their location-specific quantiles and accounts for spatiotemporal variations using a local weighted smoothing technique. The epistemic framework of the QBME method can allow researchers to further consider the uncertainty of space-time observations. This study presents the spatiotemporal modeling of daily CO and PM10 concentrations across Taiwan from 1998 to 2009 using the QBME method. Results show that the QBME method can effectively improve estimation accuracy in terms of lower mean absolute errors and standard deviations over space and time, especially for pollutants with strong nonhomogeneous variances across space. In addition, the epistemic framework can allow researchers to assimilate the site-specific secondary information where the observations are absent because of the common preferential sampling issues of environmental data. The proposed QBME method provides a practical and powerful framework for the spatiotemporal modeling of ambient pollutants.

Development of an Anisotropic Geological-Based Land Use Regression and Bayesian Maximum Entropy Model for Estimating Groundwater Radon across Northing Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messier, K. P.; Serre, M. L.

2015-12-01

Radon (222Rn) is a naturally occurring chemically inert, colorless, and odorless radioactive gas produced from the decay of uranium (238U), which is ubiquitous in rocks and soils worldwide. Exposure to 222Rn is likely the second leading cause of lung cancer after cigarette smoking via inhalation; however, exposure through untreated groundwater is also a contributing factor to both inhalation and ingestion routes. A land use regression (LUR) model for groundwater 222Rn with anisotropic geological and 238U based explanatory variables is developed, which helps elucidate the factors contributing to elevated 222Rn across North Carolina. Geological and uranium based variables are constructed in elliptical buffers surrounding each observation such that they capture the lateral geometric anisotropy present in groundwater 222Rn. Moreover, geological features are defined at three different geological spatial scales to allow the model to distinguish between large area and small area effects of geology on groundwater 222Rn. The LUR is also integrated into the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) geostatistical framework to increase accuracy and produce a point-level LUR-BME model of groundwater 222Rn across North Carolina including prediction uncertainty. The LUR-BME model of groundwater 222Rn results in a leave-one out cross-validation of 0.46 (Pearson correlation coefficient= 0.68), effectively predicting within the spatial covariance range. Modeled results of 222Rn concentrations show variability among Intrusive Felsic geological formations likely due to average bedrock 238U defined on the basis of overlying stream-sediment 238U concentrations that is a widely distributed consistently analyzed point-source data.

Bayesian Recurrent Neural Network for Language Modeling.

PubMed

Chien, Jen-Tzung; Ku, Yuan-Chu

2016-02-01

A language model (LM) is calculated as the probability of a word sequence that provides the solution to word prediction for a variety of information systems. A recurrent neural network (RNN) is powerful to learn the large-span dynamics of a word sequence in the continuous space. However, the training of the RNN-LM is an ill-posed problem because of too many parameters from a large dictionary size and a high-dimensional hidden layer. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to regularize the RNN-LM and apply it for continuous speech recognition. We aim to penalize the too complicated RNN-LM by compensating for the uncertainty of the estimated model parameters, which is represented by a Gaussian prior. The objective function in a Bayesian classification network is formed as the regularized cross-entropy error function. The regularized model is constructed not only by calculating the regularized parameters according to the maximum a posteriori criterion but also by estimating the Gaussian hyperparameter by maximizing the marginal likelihood. A rapid approximation to a Hessian matrix is developed to implement the Bayesian RNN-LM (BRNN-LM) by selecting a small set of salient outer-products. The proposed BRNN-LM achieves a sparser model than the RNN-LM. Experiments on different corpora show the robustness of system performance by applying the rapid BRNN-LM under different conditions.

Beyond maximum entropy: Fractal Pixon-based image reconstruction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Puetter, Richard C.; Pina, R. K.

1994-01-01

We have developed a new Bayesian image reconstruction method that has been shown to be superior to the best implementations of other competing methods, including Goodness-of-Fit methods such as Least-Squares fitting and Lucy-Richardson reconstruction, as well as Maximum Entropy (ME) methods such as those embodied in the MEMSYS algorithms. Our new method is based on the concept of the pixon, the fundamental, indivisible unit of picture information. Use of the pixon concept provides an improved image model, resulting in an image prior which is superior to that of standard ME. Our past work has shown how uniform information content pixons can be used to develop a 'Super-ME' method in which entropy is maximized exactly. Recently, however, we have developed a superior pixon basis for the image, the Fractal Pixon Basis (FPB). Unlike the Uniform Pixon Basis (UPB) of our 'Super-ME' method, the FPB basis is selected by employing fractal dimensional concepts to assess the inherent structure in the image. The Fractal Pixon Basis results in the best image reconstructions to date, superior to both UPB and the best ME reconstructions. In this paper, we review the theory of the UPB and FPB pixon and apply our methodology to the reconstruction of far-infrared imaging of the galaxy M51. The results of our reconstruction are compared to published reconstructions of the same data using the Lucy-Richardson algorithm, the Maximum Correlation Method developed at IPAC, and the MEMSYS ME algorithms. The results show that our reconstructed image has a spatial resolution a factor of two better than best previous methods (and a factor of 20 finer than the width of the point response function), and detects sources two orders of magnitude fainter than other methods.

Essays on inference in economics, competition, and the rate of profit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scharfenaker, Ellis S.

This dissertation is comprised of three papers that demonstrate the role of Bayesian methods of inference and Shannon's information theory in classical political economy. The first chapter explores the empirical distribution of profit rate data from North American firms from 1962-2012. This chapter address the fact that existing methods for sample selection from noisy profit rate data in the industrial organization field of economics tends to be conditional on a covariate's value that risks discarding information. Conditioning sample selection instead on the profit rate data's structure by means of a two component (signal and noise) Bayesian mixture model we find the the profit rate sample to be time stationary Laplace distributed, corroborating earlier estimates of cross section distributions. The second chapter compares alternative probabilistic approaches to discrete (quantal) choice analysis and examines the various ways in which they overlap. In particular, the work on individual choice behavior by Duncan Luce and the extension of this work to quantal response problems by game theoreticians is shown to be related both to the rational inattention work of Christopher Sims through Shannon's information theory as well as to the maximum entropy principle of inference proposed physicist Edwin T. Jaynes. In the third chapter I propose a model of ``classically" competitive firms facing informational entropy constraints in their decisions to potentially enter or exit markets based on profit rate differentials. The result is a three parameter logit quantal response distribution for firm entry and exit decisions. Bayesian methods are used for inference into the the distribution of entry and exit decisions conditional on profit rate deviations and firm level data from Compustat is used to test these predictions.

Dynamic Bayesian wavelet transform: New methodology for extraction of repetitive transients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dong; Tsui, Kwok-Leung

2017-05-01

Thanks to some recent research works, dynamic Bayesian wavelet transform as new methodology for extraction of repetitive transients is proposed in this short communication to reveal fault signatures hidden in rotating machine. The main idea of the dynamic Bayesian wavelet transform is to iteratively estimate posterior parameters of wavelet transform via artificial observations and dynamic Bayesian inference. First, a prior wavelet parameter distribution can be established by one of many fast detection algorithms, such as the fast kurtogram, the improved kurtogram, the enhanced kurtogram, the sparsogram, the infogram, continuous wavelet transform, discrete wavelet transform, wavelet packets, multiwavelets, empirical wavelet transform, empirical mode decomposition, local mean decomposition, etc.. Second, artificial observations can be constructed based on one of many metrics, such as kurtosis, the sparsity measurement, entropy, approximate entropy, the smoothness index, a synthesized criterion, etc., which are able to quantify repetitive transients. Finally, given artificial observations, the prior wavelet parameter distribution can be posteriorly updated over iterations by using dynamic Bayesian inference. More importantly, the proposed new methodology can be extended to establish the optimal parameters required by many other signal processing methods for extraction of repetitive transients.

Using simulation to interpret experimental data in terms of protein conformational ensembles.

PubMed

Allison, Jane R

2017-04-01

In their biological environment, proteins are dynamic molecules, necessitating an ensemble structural description. Molecular dynamics simulations and solution-state experiments provide complimentary information in the form of atomically detailed coordinates and averaged or distributions of structural properties or related quantities. Recently, increases in the temporal and spatial scale of conformational sampling and comparison of the more diverse conformational ensembles thus generated have revealed the importance of sampling rare events. Excitingly, new methods based on maximum entropy and Bayesian inference are promising to provide a statistically sound mechanism for combining experimental data with molecular dynamics simulations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Information-Based Analysis of Data Assimilation (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nearing, G. S.; Gupta, H. V.; Crow, W. T.; Gong, W.

2013-12-01

Data assimilation is defined as the Bayesian conditioning of uncertain model simulations on observations for the purpose of reducing uncertainty about model states. Practical data assimilation methods make the application of Bayes' law tractable either by employing assumptions about the prior, posterior and likelihood distributions (e.g., the Kalman family of filters) or by using resampling methods (e.g., bootstrap filter). We propose to quantify the efficiency of these approximations in an OSSE setting using information theory and, in an OSSE or real-world validation setting, to measure the amount - and more importantly, the quality - of information extracted from observations during data assimilation. To analyze DA assumptions, uncertainty is quantified as the Shannon-type entropy of a discretized probability distribution. The maximum amount of information that can be extracted from observations about model states is the mutual information between states and observations, which is equal to the reduction in entropy in our estimate of the state due to Bayesian filtering. The difference between this potential and the actual reduction in entropy due to Kalman (or other type of) filtering measures the inefficiency of the filter assumptions. Residual uncertainty in DA posterior state estimates can be attributed to three sources: (i) non-injectivity of the observation operator, (ii) noise in the observations, and (iii) filter approximations. The contribution of each of these sources is measurable in an OSSE setting. The amount of information extracted from observations by data assimilation (or system identification, including parameter estimation) can also be measured by Shannon's theory. Since practical filters are approximations of Bayes' law, it is important to know whether the information that is extracted form observations by a filter is reliable. We define information as either good or bad, and propose to measure these two types of information using partial Kullback-Leibler divergences. Defined this way, good and bad information sum to total information. This segregation of information into good and bad components requires a validation target distribution; in a DA OSSE setting, this can be the true Bayesian posterior, but in a real-world setting the validation target might be determined by a set of in situ observations.

Bayesian structural inference for hidden processes.

PubMed

Strelioff, Christopher C; Crutchfield, James P

2014-04-01

We introduce a Bayesian approach to discovering patterns in structurally complex processes. The proposed method of Bayesian structural inference (BSI) relies on a set of candidate unifilar hidden Markov model (uHMM) topologies for inference of process structure from a data series. We employ a recently developed exact enumeration of topological ε-machines. (A sequel then removes the topological restriction.) This subset of the uHMM topologies has the added benefit that inferred models are guaranteed to be ε-machines, irrespective of estimated transition probabilities. Properties of ε-machines and uHMMs allow for the derivation of analytic expressions for estimating transition probabilities, inferring start states, and comparing the posterior probability of candidate model topologies, despite process internal structure being only indirectly present in data. We demonstrate BSI's effectiveness in estimating a process's randomness, as reflected by the Shannon entropy rate, and its structure, as quantified by the statistical complexity. We also compare using the posterior distribution over candidate models and the single, maximum a posteriori model for point estimation and show that the former more accurately reflects uncertainty in estimated values. We apply BSI to in-class examples of finite- and infinite-order Markov processes, as well to an out-of-class, infinite-state hidden process.

Bayesian structural inference for hidden processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strelioff, Christopher C.; Crutchfield, James P.

2014-04-01

We introduce a Bayesian approach to discovering patterns in structurally complex processes. The proposed method of Bayesian structural inference (BSI) relies on a set of candidate unifilar hidden Markov model (uHMM) topologies for inference of process structure from a data series. We employ a recently developed exact enumeration of topological ɛ-machines. (A sequel then removes the topological restriction.) This subset of the uHMM topologies has the added benefit that inferred models are guaranteed to be ɛ-machines, irrespective of estimated transition probabilities. Properties of ɛ-machines and uHMMs allow for the derivation of analytic expressions for estimating transition probabilities, inferring start states, and comparing the posterior probability of candidate model topologies, despite process internal structure being only indirectly present in data. We demonstrate BSI's effectiveness in estimating a process's randomness, as reflected by the Shannon entropy rate, and its structure, as quantified by the statistical complexity. We also compare using the posterior distribution over candidate models and the single, maximum a posteriori model for point estimation and show that the former more accurately reflects uncertainty in estimated values. We apply BSI to in-class examples of finite- and infinite-order Markov processes, as well to an out-of-class, infinite-state hidden process.

Lattice NRQCD study on in-medium bottomonium spectra using a novel Bayesian reconstruction approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Seyong; Petreczky, Peter; Rothkopf, Alexander

2016-01-01

We present recent results on the in-medium modification of S- and P-wave bottomonium states around the deconfinement transition. Our study uses lattice QCD with Nf = 2 + 1 light quark flavors to describe the non-perturbative thermal QCD medium between 140MeV < T < 249MeV and deploys lattice regularized non-relativistic QCD (NRQCD) effective field theory to capture the physics of heavy quark bound states immersed therein. The spectral functions of the 3S1 (ϒ) and 3P1 (χb1) bottomonium states are extracted from Euclidean time Monte Carlo simulations using a novel Bayesian prescription, which provides higher accuracy than the Maximum Entropy Method. Based on a systematic comparison of interacting and free spectral functions we conclude that the ground states of both the S-wave (ϒ) and P-wave (χb1) channel survive up to T = 249MeV. Stringent upper limits on the size of the in-medium modification of bottomonium masses and widths are provided.

Maximum Tsallis entropy with generalized Gini and Gini mean difference indices constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khosravi Tanak, A.; Mohtashami Borzadaran, G. R.; Ahmadi, J.

2017-04-01

Using the maximum entropy principle with Tsallis entropy, some distribution families for modeling income distribution are obtained. By considering income inequality measures, maximum Tsallis entropy distributions under the constraint on generalized Gini and Gini mean difference indices are derived. It is shown that the Tsallis entropy maximizers with the considered constraints belong to generalized Pareto family.

Random versus maximum entropy models of neural population activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrari, Ulisse; Obuchi, Tomoyuki; Mora, Thierry

2017-04-01

The principle of maximum entropy provides a useful method for inferring statistical mechanics models from observations in correlated systems, and is widely used in a variety of fields where accurate data are available. While the assumptions underlying maximum entropy are intuitive and appealing, its adequacy for describing complex empirical data has been little studied in comparison to alternative approaches. Here, data from the collective spiking activity of retinal neurons is reanalyzed. The accuracy of the maximum entropy distribution constrained by mean firing rates and pairwise correlations is compared to a random ensemble of distributions constrained by the same observables. For most of the tested networks, maximum entropy approximates the true distribution better than the typical or mean distribution from that ensemble. This advantage improves with population size, with groups as small as eight being almost always better described by maximum entropy. Failure of maximum entropy to outperform random models is found to be associated with strong correlations in the population.

Metrics for evaluating performance and uncertainty of Bayesian network models

Treesearch

Bruce G. Marcot

2012-01-01

This paper presents a selected set of existing and new metrics for gauging Bayesian network model performance and uncertainty. Selected existing and new metrics are discussed for conducting model sensitivity analysis (variance reduction, entropy reduction, case file simulation); evaluating scenarios (influence analysis); depicting model complexity (numbers of model...

Underwater passive acoustic localization of Pacific walruses in the northeastern Chukchi Sea.

PubMed

Rideout, Brendan P; Dosso, Stan E; Hannay, David E

2013-09-01

This paper develops and applies a linearized Bayesian localization algorithm based on acoustic arrival times of marine mammal vocalizations at spatially-separated receivers which provides three-dimensional (3D) location estimates with rigorous uncertainty analysis. To properly account for uncertainty in receiver parameters (3D hydrophone locations and synchronization times) and environmental parameters (water depth and sound-speed correction), these quantities are treated as unknowns constrained by prior estimates and prior uncertainties. Unknown scaling factors on both the prior and arrival-time uncertainties are estimated by minimizing Akaike's Bayesian information criterion (a maximum entropy condition). Maximum a posteriori estimates for sound source locations and times, receiver parameters, and environmental parameters are calculated simultaneously using measurements of arrival times for direct and interface-reflected acoustic paths. Posterior uncertainties for all unknowns incorporate both arrival time and prior uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation results demonstrate that, for the cases considered here, linearization errors are small and the lack of an accurate sound-speed profile does not cause significant biases in the estimated locations. A sequence of Pacific walrus vocalizations, recorded in the Chukchi Sea northwest of Alaska, is localized using this technique, yielding a track estimate and uncertainties with an estimated speed comparable to normal walrus swim speeds.

Analytic continuation of quantum Monte Carlo data by stochastic analytical inference.

PubMed

Fuchs, Sebastian; Pruschke, Thomas; Jarrell, Mark

2010-05-01

We present an algorithm for the analytic continuation of imaginary-time quantum Monte Carlo data which is strictly based on principles of Bayesian statistical inference. Within this framework we are able to obtain an explicit expression for the calculation of a weighted average over possible energy spectra, which can be evaluated by standard Monte Carlo simulations, yielding as by-product also the distribution function as function of the regularization parameter. Our algorithm thus avoids the usual ad hoc assumptions introduced in similar algorithms to fix the regularization parameter. We apply the algorithm to imaginary-time quantum Monte Carlo data and compare the resulting energy spectra with those from a standard maximum-entropy calculation.

Feasibility study of direct spectra measurements for Thomson scattered signals for KSTAR fusion-grade plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, K.-R.; Kim, K.-h.; Kwak, S.; Svensson, J.; Lee, J.; Ghim, Y.-c.

2017-11-01

Feasibility study of direct spectra measurements of Thomson scattered photons for fusion-grade plasmas is performed based on a forward model of the KSTAR Thomson scattering system. Expected spectra in the forward model are calculated based on Selden function including the relativistic polarization correction. Noise in the signal is modeled with photon noise and Gaussian electrical noise. Electron temperature and density are inferred using Bayesian probability theory. Based on bias error, full width at half maximum and entropy of posterior distributions, spectral measurements are found to be feasible. Comparisons between spectrometer-based and polychromator-based Thomson scattering systems are performed with varying quantum efficiency and electrical noise levels.

Information Entropy Production of Maximum Entropy Markov Chains from Spike Trains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cofré, Rodrigo; Maldonado, Cesar

2018-01-01

We consider the maximum entropy Markov chain inference approach to characterize the collective statistics of neuronal spike trains, focusing on the statistical properties of the inferred model. We review large deviations techniques useful in this context to describe properties of accuracy and convergence in terms of sampling size. We use these results to study the statistical fluctuation of correlations, distinguishability and irreversibility of maximum entropy Markov chains. We illustrate these applications using simple examples where the large deviation rate function is explicitly obtained for maximum entropy models of relevance in this field.

The equivalence of minimum entropy production and maximum thermal efficiency in endoreversible heat engines.

PubMed

Haseli, Y

2016-05-01

The objective of this study is to investigate the thermal efficiency and power production of typical models of endoreversible heat engines at the regime of minimum entropy generation rate. The study considers the Curzon-Ahlborn engine, the Novikov's engine, and the Carnot vapor cycle. The operational regimes at maximum thermal efficiency, maximum power output and minimum entropy production rate are compared for each of these engines. The results reveal that in an endoreversible heat engine, a reduction in entropy production corresponds to an increase in thermal efficiency. The three criteria of minimum entropy production, the maximum thermal efficiency, and the maximum power may become equivalent at the condition of fixed heat input.

In Vivo potassium-39 NMR spectra by the burg maximum-entropy method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uchiyama, Takanori; Minamitani, Haruyuki

The Burg maximum-entropy method was applied to estimate 39K NMR spectra of mung bean root tips. The maximum-entropy spectra have as good a linearity between peak areas and potassium concentrations as those obtained by fast Fourier transform and give a better estimation of intracellular potassium concentrations. Therefore potassium uptake and loss processes of mung bean root tips are shown to be more clearly traced by the maximum-entropy method.

A Bayesian perspective on Markovian dynamics and the fluctuation theorem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virgo, Nathaniel

2013-08-01

One of E. T. Jaynes' most important achievements was to derive statistical mechanics from the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method. I re-examine a relatively new result in statistical mechanics, the Evans-Searles fluctuation theorem, from a MaxEnt perspective. This is done in the belief that interpreting such results in Bayesian terms will lead to new advances in statistical physics. The version of the fluctuation theorem that I will discuss applies to discrete, stochastic systems that begin in a non-equilibrium state and relax toward equilibrium. I will show that for such systems the fluctuation theorem can be seen as a consequence of the fact that the equilibrium distribution must obey the property of detailed balance. Although the principle of detailed balance applies only to equilibrium ensembles, it puts constraints on the form of non-equilibrium trajectories. This will be made clear by taking a novel kind of Bayesian perspective, in which the equilibrium distribution is seen as a prior over the system's set of possible trajectories. Non-equilibrium ensembles are calculated from this prior using Bayes' theorem, with the initial conditions playing the role of the data. I will also comment on the implications of this perspective for the question of how to derive the second law.

Robust Bayesian Experimental Design for Conceptual Model Discrimination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, H. V.; Tsai, F. T. C.

2015-12-01

A robust Bayesian optimal experimental design under uncertainty is presented to provide firm information for model discrimination, given the least number of pumping wells and observation wells. Firm information is the maximum information of a system can be guaranteed from an experimental design. The design is based on the Box-Hill expected entropy decrease (EED) before and after the experiment design and the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) framework. A max-min programming is introduced to choose the robust design that maximizes the minimal Box-Hill EED subject to that the highest expected posterior model probability satisfies a desired probability threshold. The EED is calculated by the Gauss-Hermite quadrature. The BMA method is used to predict future observations and to quantify future observation uncertainty arising from conceptual and parametric uncertainties in calculating EED. Monte Carlo approach is adopted to quantify the uncertainty in the posterior model probabilities. The optimal experimental design is tested by a synthetic 5-layer anisotropic confined aquifer. Nine conceptual groundwater models are constructed due to uncertain geological architecture and boundary condition. High-performance computing is used to enumerate all possible design solutions in order to identify the most plausible groundwater model. Results highlight the impacts of scedasticity in future observation data as well as uncertainty sources on potential pumping and observation locations.

Maximum Entropy Discrimination Poisson Regression for Software Reliability Modeling.

PubMed

Chatzis, Sotirios P; Andreou, Andreas S

2015-11-01

Reliably predicting software defects is one of the most significant tasks in software engineering. Two of the major components of modern software reliability modeling approaches are: 1) extraction of salient features for software system representation, based on appropriately designed software metrics and 2) development of intricate regression models for count data, to allow effective software reliability data modeling and prediction. Surprisingly, research in the latter frontier of count data regression modeling has been rather limited. More specifically, a lack of simple and efficient algorithms for posterior computation has made the Bayesian approaches appear unattractive, and thus underdeveloped in the context of software reliability modeling. In this paper, we try to address these issues by introducing a novel Bayesian regression model for count data, based on the concept of max-margin data modeling, effected in the context of a fully Bayesian model treatment with simple and efficient posterior distribution updates. Our novel approach yields a more discriminative learning technique, making more effective use of our training data during model inference. In addition, it allows of better handling uncertainty in the modeled data, which can be a significant problem when the training data are limited. We derive elegant inference algorithms for our model under the mean-field paradigm and exhibit its effectiveness using the publicly available benchmark data sets.

Autonomous entropy-based intelligent experimental design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malakar, Nabin Kumar

2011-07-01

The aim of this thesis is to explore the application of probability and information theory in experimental design, and to do so in a way that combines what we know about inference and inquiry in a comprehensive and consistent manner. Present day scientific frontiers involve data collection at an ever-increasing rate. This requires that we find a way to collect the most relevant data in an automated fashion. By following the logic of the scientific method, we couple an inference engine with an inquiry engine to automate the iterative process of scientific learning. The inference engine involves Bayesian machine learning techniques to estimate model parameters based upon both prior information and previously collected data, while the inquiry engine implements data-driven exploration. By choosing an experiment whose distribution of expected results has the maximum entropy, the inquiry engine selects the experiment that maximizes the expected information gain. The coupled inference and inquiry engines constitute an autonomous learning method for scientific exploration. We apply it to a robotic arm to demonstrate the efficacy of the method. Optimizing inquiry involves searching for an experiment that promises, on average, to be maximally informative. If the set of potential experiments is described by many parameters, the search involves a high-dimensional entropy space. In such cases, a brute force search method will be slow and computationally expensive. We develop an entropy-based search algorithm, called nested entropy sampling, to select the most informative experiment. This helps to reduce the number of computations necessary to find the optimal experiment. We also extended the method of maximizing entropy, and developed a method of maximizing joint entropy so that it could be used as a principle of collaboration between two robots. This is a major achievement of this thesis, as it allows the information-based collaboration between two robotic units towards a same goal in an automated fashion.

Bayesian soft X-ray tomography using non-stationary Gaussian Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dong; Svensson, J.; Thomsen, H.; Medina, F.; Werner, A.; Wolf, R.

2013-08-01

In this study, a Bayesian based non-stationary Gaussian Process (GP) method for the inference of soft X-ray emissivity distribution along with its associated uncertainties has been developed. For the investigation of equilibrium condition and fast magnetohydrodynamic behaviors in nuclear fusion plasmas, it is of importance to infer, especially in the plasma center, spatially resolved soft X-ray profiles from a limited number of noisy line integral measurements. For this ill-posed inversion problem, Bayesian probability theory can provide a posterior probability distribution over all possible solutions under given model assumptions. Specifically, the use of a non-stationary GP to model the emission allows the model to adapt to the varying length scales of the underlying diffusion process. In contrast to other conventional methods, the prior regularization is realized in a probability form which enhances the capability of uncertainty analysis, in consequence, scientists who concern the reliability of their results will benefit from it. Under the assumption of normally distributed noise, the posterior distribution evaluated at a discrete number of points becomes a multivariate normal distribution whose mean and covariance are analytically available, making inversions and calculation of uncertainty fast. Additionally, the hyper-parameters embedded in the model assumption can be optimized through a Bayesian Occam's Razor formalism and thereby automatically adjust the model complexity. This method is shown to produce convincing reconstructions and good agreements with independently calculated results from the Maximum Entropy and Equilibrium-Based Iterative Tomography Algorithm methods.

Bayesian soft X-ray tomography using non-stationary Gaussian Processes.

PubMed

Li, Dong; Svensson, J; Thomsen, H; Medina, F; Werner, A; Wolf, R

2013-08-01

In this study, a Bayesian based non-stationary Gaussian Process (GP) method for the inference of soft X-ray emissivity distribution along with its associated uncertainties has been developed. For the investigation of equilibrium condition and fast magnetohydrodynamic behaviors in nuclear fusion plasmas, it is of importance to infer, especially in the plasma center, spatially resolved soft X-ray profiles from a limited number of noisy line integral measurements. For this ill-posed inversion problem, Bayesian probability theory can provide a posterior probability distribution over all possible solutions under given model assumptions. Specifically, the use of a non-stationary GP to model the emission allows the model to adapt to the varying length scales of the underlying diffusion process. In contrast to other conventional methods, the prior regularization is realized in a probability form which enhances the capability of uncertainty analysis, in consequence, scientists who concern the reliability of their results will benefit from it. Under the assumption of normally distributed noise, the posterior distribution evaluated at a discrete number of points becomes a multivariate normal distribution whose mean and covariance are analytically available, making inversions and calculation of uncertainty fast. Additionally, the hyper-parameters embedded in the model assumption can be optimized through a Bayesian Occam's Razor formalism and thereby automatically adjust the model complexity. This method is shown to produce convincing reconstructions and good agreements with independently calculated results from the Maximum Entropy and Equilibrium-Based Iterative Tomography Algorithm methods.

Comparing adaptive procedures for estimating the psychometric function for an auditory gap detection task.

PubMed

Shen, Yi

2013-05-01

A subject's sensitivity to a stimulus variation can be studied by estimating the psychometric function. Generally speaking, three parameters of the psychometric function are of interest: the performance threshold, the slope of the function, and the rate at which attention lapses occur. In the present study, three psychophysical procedures were used to estimate the three-parameter psychometric function for an auditory gap detection task. These were an up-down staircase (up-down) procedure, an entropy-based Bayesian (entropy) procedure, and an updated maximum-likelihood (UML) procedure. Data collected from four young, normal-hearing listeners showed that while all three procedures provided similar estimates of the threshold parameter, the up-down procedure performed slightly better in estimating the slope and lapse rate for 200 trials of data collection. When the lapse rate was increased by mixing in random responses for the three adaptive procedures, the larger lapse rate was especially detrimental to the efficiency of the up-down procedure, and the UML procedure provided better estimates of the threshold and slope than did the other two procedures.

Spatiotemporal Modeling of Ozone Levels in Quebec (Canada): A Comparison of Kriging, Land-Use Regression (LUR), and Combined Bayesian Maximum Entropy–LUR Approaches

PubMed Central

Adam-Poupart, Ariane; Brand, Allan; Fournier, Michel; Jerrett, Michael

2014-01-01

Background: Ambient air ozone (O3) is a pulmonary irritant that has been associated with respiratory health effects including increased lung inflammation and permeability, airway hyperreactivity, respiratory symptoms, and decreased lung function. Estimation of O3 exposure is a complex task because the pollutant exhibits complex spatiotemporal patterns. To refine the quality of exposure estimation, various spatiotemporal methods have been developed worldwide. Objectives: We sought to compare the accuracy of three spatiotemporal models to predict summer ground-level O3 in Quebec, Canada. Methods: We developed a land-use mixed-effects regression (LUR) model based on readily available data (air quality and meteorological monitoring data, road networks information, latitude), a Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) model incorporating both O3 monitoring station data and the land-use mixed model outputs (BME-LUR), and a kriging method model based only on available O3 monitoring station data (BME kriging). We performed leave-one-station-out cross-validation and visually assessed the predictive capability of each model by examining the mean temporal and spatial distributions of the average estimated errors. Results: The BME-LUR was the best predictive model (R2 = 0.653) with the lowest root mean-square error (RMSE ;7.06 ppb), followed by the LUR model (R2 = 0.466, RMSE = 8.747) and the BME kriging model (R2 = 0.414, RMSE = 9.164). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that errors of estimation in the interpolation of O3 concentrations with BME can be greatly reduced by incorporating outputs from a LUR model developed with readily available data. Citation: Adam-Poupart A, Brand A, Fournier M, Jerrett M, Smargiassi A. 2014. Spatiotemporal modeling of ozone levels in Quebec (Canada): a comparison of kriging, land-use regression (LUR), and combined Bayesian maximum entropy–LUR approaches. Environ Health Perspect 122:970–976; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306566 PMID:24879650

Entropy and equilibrium via games of complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topsøe, Flemming

2004-09-01

It is suggested that thermodynamical equilibrium equals game theoretical equilibrium. Aspects of this thesis are discussed. The philosophy is consistent with maximum entropy thinking of Jaynes, but goes one step deeper by deriving the maximum entropy principle from an underlying game theoretical principle. The games introduced are based on measures of complexity. Entropy is viewed as minimal complexity. It is demonstrated that Tsallis entropy ( q-entropy) and Kaniadakis entropy ( κ-entropy) can be obtained in this way, based on suitable complexity measures. A certain unifying effect is obtained by embedding these measures in a two-parameter family of entropy functions.

Computational problems and signal processing in SETI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deans, Stanley R.; Cullers, D. K.; Stauduhar, Richard

1991-01-01

The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI), currently being planned at NASA, will require that an enormous amount of data (on the order of 10 exp 11 distinct signal paths for a typical observation) be analyzed in real time by special-purpose hardware. Even though the SETI system design is not based on maximum entropy and Bayesian methods (partly due to the real-time processing constraint), it is expected that enough data will be saved to be able to apply these and other methods off line where computational complexity is not an overriding issue. Interesting computational problems that relate directly to the system design for processing such an enormous amount of data have emerged. Some of these problems are discussed, along with the current status on their solution.

Bayesian learning for spatial filtering in an EEG-based brain-computer interface.

PubMed

Zhang, Haihong; Yang, Huijuan; Guan, Cuntai

2013-07-01

Spatial filtering for EEG feature extraction and classification is an important tool in brain-computer interface. However, there is generally no established theory that links spatial filtering directly to Bayes classification error. To address this issue, this paper proposes and studies a Bayesian analysis theory for spatial filtering in relation to Bayes error. Following the maximum entropy principle, we introduce a gamma probability model for describing single-trial EEG power features. We then formulate and analyze the theoretical relationship between Bayes classification error and the so-called Rayleigh quotient, which is a function of spatial filters and basically measures the ratio in power features between two classes. This paper also reports our extensive study that examines the theory and its use in classification, using three publicly available EEG data sets and state-of-the-art spatial filtering techniques and various classifiers. Specifically, we validate the positive relationship between Bayes error and Rayleigh quotient in real EEG power features. Finally, we demonstrate that the Bayes error can be practically reduced by applying a new spatial filter with lower Rayleigh quotient.

Metainference: A Bayesian inference method for heterogeneous systems.

PubMed

Bonomi, Massimiliano; Camilloni, Carlo; Cavalli, Andrea; Vendruscolo, Michele

2016-01-01

Modeling a complex system is almost invariably a challenging task. The incorporation of experimental observations can be used to improve the quality of a model and thus to obtain better predictions about the behavior of the corresponding system. This approach, however, is affected by a variety of different errors, especially when a system simultaneously populates an ensemble of different states and experimental data are measured as averages over such states. To address this problem, we present a Bayesian inference method, called "metainference," that is able to deal with errors in experimental measurements and with experimental measurements averaged over multiple states. To achieve this goal, metainference models a finite sample of the distribution of models using a replica approach, in the spirit of the replica-averaging modeling based on the maximum entropy principle. To illustrate the method, we present its application to a heterogeneous model system and to the determination of an ensemble of structures corresponding to the thermal fluctuations of a protein molecule. Metainference thus provides an approach to modeling complex systems with heterogeneous components and interconverting between different states by taking into account all possible sources of errors.

Minimal entropy approximation for cellular automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukś, Henryk

2014-02-01

We present a method for the construction of approximate orbits of measures under the action of cellular automata which is complementary to the local structure theory. The local structure theory is based on the idea of Bayesian extension, that is, construction of a probability measure consistent with given block probabilities and maximizing entropy. If instead of maximizing entropy one minimizes it, one can develop another method for the construction of approximate orbits, at the heart of which is the iteration of finite-dimensional maps, called minimal entropy maps. We present numerical evidence that the minimal entropy approximation sometimes outperforms the local structure theory in characterizing the properties of cellular automata. The density response curve for elementary CA rule 26 is used to illustrate this claim.

Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for multispecies conservation planning and monitoring.

PubMed

Carroll, Carlos; Johnson, Devin S; Dunk, Jeffrey R; Zielinski, William J

2010-12-01

Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data's spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and invertebrate taxa of conservation concern (Church's sideband snails [Monadenia churchi], red tree voles [Arborimus longicaudus], and Pacific fishers [Martes pennanti pacifica]) that provide examples of a range of distributional extents and dispersal abilities. We used presence-absence data derived from regional monitoring programs to develop models with both landscape and site-level environmental covariates. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and a conditional autoregressive or intrinsic conditional autoregressive model framework to fit spatial models. The fit of Bayesian spatial models was between 35 and 55% better than the fit of nonspatial analogue models. Bayesian spatial models outperformed analogous models developed with maximum entropy (Maxent) methods. Although the best spatial and nonspatial models included similar environmental variables, spatial models provided estimates of residual spatial effects that suggested how ecological processes might structure distribution patterns. Spatial models built from presence-absence data improved fit most for localized endemic species with ranges constrained by poorly known biogeographic factors and for widely distributed species suspected to be strongly affected by unmeasured environmental variables or population processes. By treating spatial effects as a variable of interest rather than a nuisance, hierarchical Bayesian spatial models, especially when they are based on a common broad-scale spatial lattice (here the national Forest Inventory and Analysis grid of 24 km(2) hexagons), can increase the relevance of habitat models to multispecies conservation planning. Journal compilation © 2010 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original US government works.

Three faces of entropy for complex systems: Information, thermodynamics, and the maximum entropy principle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thurner, Stefan; Corominas-Murtra, Bernat; Hanel, Rudolf

2017-09-01

There are at least three distinct ways to conceptualize entropy: entropy as an extensive thermodynamic quantity of physical systems (Clausius, Boltzmann, Gibbs), entropy as a measure for information production of ergodic sources (Shannon), and entropy as a means for statistical inference on multinomial processes (Jaynes maximum entropy principle). Even though these notions represent fundamentally different concepts, the functional form of the entropy for thermodynamic systems in equilibrium, for ergodic sources in information theory, and for independent sampling processes in statistical systems, is degenerate, H (p ) =-∑ipilogpi . For many complex systems, which are typically history-dependent, nonergodic, and nonmultinomial, this is no longer the case. Here we show that for such processes, the three entropy concepts lead to different functional forms of entropy, which we will refer to as SEXT for extensive entropy, SIT for the source information rate in information theory, and SMEP for the entropy functional that appears in the so-called maximum entropy principle, which characterizes the most likely observable distribution functions of a system. We explicitly compute these three entropy functionals for three concrete examples: for Pólya urn processes, which are simple self-reinforcing processes, for sample-space-reducing (SSR) processes, which are simple history dependent processes that are associated with power-law statistics, and finally for multinomial mixture processes.

Quantifying Trace Amounts of Aggregates in Biopharmaceuticals Using Analytical Ultracentrifugation Sedimentation Velocity: Bayesian Analyses and F Statistics.

PubMed

Wafer, Lucas; Kloczewiak, Marek; Luo, Yin

2016-07-01

Analytical ultracentrifugation-sedimentation velocity (AUC-SV) is often used to quantify high molar mass species (HMMS) present in biopharmaceuticals. Although these species are often present in trace quantities, they have received significant attention due to their potential immunogenicity. Commonly, AUC-SV data is analyzed as a diffusion-corrected, sedimentation coefficient distribution, or c(s), using SEDFIT to numerically solve Lamm-type equations. SEDFIT also utilizes maximum entropy or Tikhonov-Phillips regularization to further allow the user to determine relevant sample information, including the number of species present, their sedimentation coefficients, and their relative abundance. However, this methodology has several, often unstated, limitations, which may impact the final analysis of protein therapeutics. These include regularization-specific effects, artificial "ripple peaks," and spurious shifts in the sedimentation coefficients. In this investigation, we experimentally verified that an explicit Bayesian approach, as implemented in SEDFIT, can largely correct for these effects. Clear guidelines on how to implement this technique and interpret the resulting data, especially for samples containing micro-heterogeneity (e.g., differential glycosylation), are also provided. In addition, we demonstrated how the Bayesian approach can be combined with F statistics to draw more accurate conclusions and rigorously exclude artifactual peaks. Numerous examples with an antibody and an antibody-drug conjugate were used to illustrate the strengths and drawbacks of each technique.

Simple summation rule for optimal fixation selection in visual search.

PubMed

Najemnik, Jiri; Geisler, Wilson S

2009-06-01

When searching for a known target in a natural texture, practiced humans achieve near-optimal performance compared to a Bayesian ideal searcher constrained with the human map of target detectability across the visual field [Najemnik, J., & Geisler, W. S. (2005). Optimal eye movement strategies in visual search. Nature, 434, 387-391]. To do so, humans must be good at choosing where to fixate during the search [Najemnik, J., & Geisler, W.S. (2008). Eye movement statistics in humans are consistent with an optimal strategy. Journal of Vision, 8(3), 1-14. 4]; however, it seems unlikely that a biological nervous system would implement the computations for the Bayesian ideal fixation selection because of their complexity. Here we derive and test a simple heuristic for optimal fixation selection that appears to be a much better candidate for implementation within a biological nervous system. Specifically, we show that the near-optimal fixation location is the maximum of the current posterior probability distribution for target location after the distribution is filtered by (convolved with) the square of the retinotopic target detectability map. We term the model that uses this strategy the entropy limit minimization (ELM) searcher. We show that when constrained with human-like retinotopic map of target detectability and human search error rates, the ELM searcher performs as well as the Bayesian ideal searcher, and produces fixation statistics similar to human.

Bayesian data fusion for spatial prediction of categorical variables in environmental sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gengler, Sarah; Bogaert, Patrick

2014-12-01

First developed to predict continuous variables, Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) has become a complete framework in the context of space-time prediction since it has been extended to predict categorical variables and mixed random fields. This method proposes solutions to combine several sources of data whatever the nature of the information. However, the various attempts that were made for adapting the BME methodology to categorical variables and mixed random fields faced some limitations, as a high computational burden. The main objective of this paper is to overcome this limitation by generalizing the Bayesian Data Fusion (BDF) theoretical framework to categorical variables, which is somehow a simplification of the BME method through the convenient conditional independence hypothesis. The BDF methodology for categorical variables is first described and then applied to a practical case study: the estimation of soil drainage classes using a soil map and point observations in the sandy area of Flanders around the city of Mechelen (Belgium). The BDF approach is compared to BME along with more classical approaches, as Indicator CoKringing (ICK) and logistic regression. Estimators are compared using various indicators, namely the Percentage of Correctly Classified locations (PCC) and the Average Highest Probability (AHP). Although BDF methodology for categorical variables is somehow a simplification of BME approach, both methods lead to similar results and have strong advantages compared to ICK and logistic regression.

Bayesian cross-entropy methodology for optimal design of validation experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, X.; Mahadevan, S.

2006-07-01

An important concern in the design of validation experiments is how to incorporate the mathematical model in the design in order to allow conclusive comparisons of model prediction with experimental output in model assessment. The classical experimental design methods are more suitable for phenomena discovery and may result in a subjective, expensive, time-consuming and ineffective design that may adversely impact these comparisons. In this paper, an integrated Bayesian cross-entropy methodology is proposed to perform the optimal design of validation experiments incorporating the computational model. The expected cross entropy, an information-theoretic distance between the distributions of model prediction and experimental observation, is defined as a utility function to measure the similarity of two distributions. A simulated annealing algorithm is used to find optimal values of input variables through minimizing or maximizing the expected cross entropy. The measured data after testing with the optimum input values are used to update the distribution of the experimental output using Bayes theorem. The procedure is repeated to adaptively design the required number of experiments for model assessment, each time ensuring that the experiment provides effective comparison for validation. The methodology is illustrated for the optimal design of validation experiments for a three-leg bolted joint structure and a composite helicopter rotor hub component.

Maximum-entropy probability distributions under Lp-norm constraints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dolinar, S.

1991-01-01

Continuous probability density functions and discrete probability mass functions are tabulated which maximize the differential entropy or absolute entropy, respectively, among all probability distributions with a given L sub p norm (i.e., a given pth absolute moment when p is a finite integer) and unconstrained or constrained value set. Expressions for the maximum entropy are evaluated as functions of the L sub p norm. The most interesting results are obtained and plotted for unconstrained (real valued) continuous random variables and for integer valued discrete random variables. The maximum entropy expressions are obtained in closed form for unconstrained continuous random variables, and in this case there is a simple straight line relationship between the maximum differential entropy and the logarithm of the L sub p norm. Corresponding expressions for arbitrary discrete and constrained continuous random variables are given parametrically; closed form expressions are available only for special cases. However, simpler alternative bounds on the maximum entropy of integer valued discrete random variables are obtained by applying the differential entropy results to continuous random variables which approximate the integer valued random variables in a natural manner. All the results are presented in an integrated framework that includes continuous and discrete random variables, constraints on the permissible value set, and all possible values of p. Understanding such as this is useful in evaluating the performance of data compression schemes.

The maximum entropy production principle: two basic questions.

PubMed

Martyushev, Leonid M

2010-05-12

The overwhelming majority of maximum entropy production applications to ecological and environmental systems are based on thermodynamics and statistical physics. Here, we discuss briefly maximum entropy production principle and raises two questions: (i) can this principle be used as the basis for non-equilibrium thermodynamics and statistical mechanics and (ii) is it possible to 'prove' the principle? We adduce one more proof which is most concise today.

The maximum entropy production and maximum Shannon information entropy in enzyme kinetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobovišek, Andrej; Markovič, Rene; Brumen, Milan; Fajmut, Aleš

2018-04-01

We demonstrate that the maximum entropy production principle (MEPP) serves as a physical selection principle for the description of the most probable non-equilibrium steady states in simple enzymatic reactions. A theoretical approach is developed, which enables maximization of the density of entropy production with respect to the enzyme rate constants for the enzyme reaction in a steady state. Mass and Gibbs free energy conservations are considered as optimization constraints. In such a way computed optimal enzyme rate constants in a steady state yield also the most uniform probability distribution of the enzyme states. This accounts for the maximal Shannon information entropy. By means of the stability analysis it is also demonstrated that maximal density of entropy production in that enzyme reaction requires flexible enzyme structure, which enables rapid transitions between different enzyme states. These results are supported by an example, in which density of entropy production and Shannon information entropy are numerically maximized for the enzyme Glucose Isomerase.

A Framework for Final Drive Simultaneous Failure Diagnosis Based on Fuzzy Entropy and Sparse Bayesian Extreme Learning Machine

PubMed Central

Ye, Qing; Pan, Hao; Liu, Changhua

2015-01-01

This research proposes a novel framework of final drive simultaneous failure diagnosis containing feature extraction, training paired diagnostic models, generating decision threshold, and recognizing simultaneous failure modes. In feature extraction module, adopt wavelet package transform and fuzzy entropy to reduce noise interference and extract representative features of failure mode. Use single failure sample to construct probability classifiers based on paired sparse Bayesian extreme learning machine which is trained only by single failure modes and have high generalization and sparsity of sparse Bayesian learning approach. To generate optimal decision threshold which can convert probability output obtained from classifiers into final simultaneous failure modes, this research proposes using samples containing both single and simultaneous failure modes and Grid search method which is superior to traditional techniques in global optimization. Compared with other frequently used diagnostic approaches based on support vector machine and probability neural networks, experiment results based on F 1-measure value verify that the diagnostic accuracy and efficiency of the proposed framework which are crucial for simultaneous failure diagnosis are superior to the existing approach. PMID:25722717

A Comparison of a Bayesian and a Maximum Likelihood Tailored Testing Procedure.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McKinley, Robert L.; Reckase, Mark D.

A study was conducted to compare tailored testing procedures based on a Bayesian ability estimation technique and on a maximum likelihood ability estimation technique. The Bayesian tailored testing procedure selected items so as to minimize the posterior variance of the ability estimate distribution, while the maximum likelihood tailored testing…

DEM interpolation weight calculation modulus based on maximum entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Tian-wei; Yang, Xia

2015-12-01

There is negative-weight in traditional interpolation of gridding DEM, in the article, the principle of Maximum Entropy is utilized to analyze the model system which depends on modulus of space weight. Negative-weight problem of the DEM interpolation is researched via building Maximum Entropy model, and adding nonnegative, first and second order's Moment constraints, the negative-weight problem is solved. The correctness and accuracy of the method was validated with genetic algorithm in matlab program. The method is compared with the method of Yang Chizhong interpolation and quadratic program. Comparison shows that the volume and scaling of Maximum Entropy's weight is fit to relations of space and the accuracy is superior to the latter two.

Monitoring of Time-Dependent System Profiles by Multiplex Gas Chromatography with Maximum Entropy Demodulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Becker, Joseph F.; Valentin, Jose

1996-01-01

The maximum entropy technique was successfully applied to the deconvolution of overlapped chromatographic peaks. An algorithm was written in which the chromatogram was represented as a vector of sample concentrations multiplied by a peak shape matrix. Simulation results demonstrated that there is a trade off between the detector noise and peak resolution in the sense that an increase of the noise level reduced the peak separation that could be recovered by the maximum entropy method. Real data originated from a sample storage column was also deconvoluted using maximum entropy. Deconvolution is useful in this type of system because the conservation of time dependent profiles depends on the band spreading processes in the chromatographic column, which might smooth out the finer details in the concentration profile. The method was also applied to the deconvolution of previously interpretted Pioneer Venus chromatograms. It was found in this case that the correct choice of peak shape function was critical to the sensitivity of maximum entropy in the reconstruction of these chromatograms.

Bayesian structural equation modeling in sport and exercise psychology.

PubMed

Stenling, Andreas; Ivarsson, Andreas; Johnson, Urban; Lindwall, Magnus

2015-08-01

Bayesian statistics is on the rise in mainstream psychology, but applications in sport and exercise psychology research are scarce. In this article, the foundations of Bayesian analysis are introduced, and we will illustrate how to apply Bayesian structural equation modeling in a sport and exercise psychology setting. More specifically, we contrasted a confirmatory factor analysis on the Sport Motivation Scale II estimated with the most commonly used estimator, maximum likelihood, and a Bayesian approach with weakly informative priors for cross-loadings and correlated residuals. The results indicated that the model with Bayesian estimation and weakly informative priors provided a good fit to the data, whereas the model estimated with a maximum likelihood estimator did not produce a well-fitting model. The reasons for this discrepancy between maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation are discussed as well as potential advantages and caveats with the Bayesian approach.

3D image restoration for confocal microscopy: toward a wavelet deconvolution for the study of complex biological structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boutet de Monvel, Jacques; Le Calvez, Sophie; Ulfendahl, Mats

2000-05-01

Image restoration algorithms provide efficient tools for recovering part of the information lost in the imaging process of a microscope. We describe recent progress in the application of deconvolution to confocal microscopy. The point spread function of a Biorad-MRC1024 confocal microscope was measured under various imaging conditions, and used to process 3D-confocal images acquired in an intact preparation of the inner ear developed at Karolinska Institutet. Using these experiments we investigate the application of denoising methods based on wavelet analysis as a natural regularization of the deconvolution process. Within the Bayesian approach to image restoration, we compare wavelet denoising with the use of a maximum entropy constraint as another natural regularization method. Numerical experiments performed with test images show a clear advantage of the wavelet denoising approach, allowing to `cool down' the image with respect to the signal, while suppressing much of the fine-scale artifacts appearing during deconvolution due to the presence of noise, incomplete knowledge of the point spread function, or undersampling problems. We further describe a natural development of this approach, which consists of performing the Bayesian inference directly in the wavelet domain.

Metainference: A Bayesian inference method for heterogeneous systems

PubMed Central

Bonomi, Massimiliano; Camilloni, Carlo; Cavalli, Andrea; Vendruscolo, Michele

2016-01-01

Modeling a complex system is almost invariably a challenging task. The incorporation of experimental observations can be used to improve the quality of a model and thus to obtain better predictions about the behavior of the corresponding system. This approach, however, is affected by a variety of different errors, especially when a system simultaneously populates an ensemble of different states and experimental data are measured as averages over such states. To address this problem, we present a Bayesian inference method, called “metainference,” that is able to deal with errors in experimental measurements and with experimental measurements averaged over multiple states. To achieve this goal, metainference models a finite sample of the distribution of models using a replica approach, in the spirit of the replica-averaging modeling based on the maximum entropy principle. To illustrate the method, we present its application to a heterogeneous model system and to the determination of an ensemble of structures corresponding to the thermal fluctuations of a protein molecule. Metainference thus provides an approach to modeling complex systems with heterogeneous components and interconverting between different states by taking into account all possible sources of errors. PMID:26844300

Convex Accelerated Maximum Entropy Reconstruction

PubMed Central

Worley, Bradley

2016-01-01

Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) spectral reconstruction methods provide a powerful framework for spectral estimation of nonuniformly sampled datasets. Many methods exist within this framework, usually defined based on the magnitude of a Lagrange multiplier in the MaxEnt objective function. An algorithm is presented here that utilizes accelerated first-order convex optimization techniques to rapidly and reliably reconstruct nonuniformly sampled NMR datasets using the principle of maximum entropy. This algorithm – called CAMERA for Convex Accelerated Maximum Entropy Reconstruction Algorithm – is a new approach to spectral reconstruction that exhibits fast, tunable convergence in both constant-aim and constant-lambda modes. A high-performance, open source NMR data processing tool is described that implements CAMERA, and brief comparisons to existing reconstruction methods are made on several example spectra. PMID:26894476

Entropy-based goodness-of-fit test: Application to the Pareto distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lequesne, Justine

2013-08-01

Goodness-of-fit tests based on entropy have been introduced in [13] for testing normality. The maximum entropy distribution in a class of probability distributions defined by linear constraints induces a Pythagorean equality between the Kullback-Leibler information and an entropy difference. This allows one to propose a goodness-of-fit test for maximum entropy parametric distributions which is based on the Kullback-Leibler information. We will focus on the application of the method to the Pareto distribution. The power of the proposed test is computed through Monte Carlo simulation.

How multiplicity determines entropy and the derivation of the maximum entropy principle for complex systems.

PubMed

Hanel, Rudolf; Thurner, Stefan; Gell-Mann, Murray

2014-05-13

The maximum entropy principle (MEP) is a method for obtaining the most likely distribution functions of observables from statistical systems by maximizing entropy under constraints. The MEP has found hundreds of applications in ergodic and Markovian systems in statistical mechanics, information theory, and statistics. For several decades there has been an ongoing controversy over whether the notion of the maximum entropy principle can be extended in a meaningful way to nonextensive, nonergodic, and complex statistical systems and processes. In this paper we start by reviewing how Boltzmann-Gibbs-Shannon entropy is related to multiplicities of independent random processes. We then show how the relaxation of independence naturally leads to the most general entropies that are compatible with the first three Shannon-Khinchin axioms, the (c,d)-entropies. We demonstrate that the MEP is a perfectly consistent concept for nonergodic and complex statistical systems if their relative entropy can be factored into a generalized multiplicity and a constraint term. The problem of finding such a factorization reduces to finding an appropriate representation of relative entropy in a linear basis. In a particular example we show that path-dependent random processes with memory naturally require specific generalized entropies. The example is to our knowledge the first exact derivation of a generalized entropy from the microscopic properties of a path-dependent random process.

Maximum entropy method applied to deblurring images on a MasPar MP-1 computer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonavito, N. L.; Dorband, John; Busse, Tim

1991-01-01

A statistical inference method based on the principle of maximum entropy is developed for the purpose of enhancing and restoring satellite images. The proposed maximum entropy image restoration method is shown to overcome the difficulties associated with image restoration and provide the smoothest and most appropriate solution consistent with the measured data. An implementation of the method on the MP-1 computer is described, and results of tests on simulated data are presented.

Modeling Information Content Via Dirichlet-Multinomial Regression Analysis.

PubMed

Ferrari, Alberto

2017-01-01

Shannon entropy is being increasingly used in biomedical research as an index of complexity and information content in sequences of symbols, e.g. languages, amino acid sequences, DNA methylation patterns and animal vocalizations. Yet, distributional properties of information entropy as a random variable have seldom been the object of study, leading to researchers mainly using linear models or simulation-based analytical approach to assess differences in information content, when entropy is measured repeatedly in different experimental conditions. Here a method to perform inference on entropy in such conditions is proposed. Building on results coming from studies in the field of Bayesian entropy estimation, a symmetric Dirichlet-multinomial regression model, able to deal efficiently with the issue of mean entropy estimation, is formulated. Through a simulation study the model is shown to outperform linear modeling in a vast range of scenarios and to have promising statistical properties. As a practical example, the method is applied to a data set coming from a real experiment on animal communication.

A Bayesian Framework of Uncertainties Integration in 3D Geological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, D.; Liu, X.

2017-12-01

3D geological model can describe complicated geological phenomena in an intuitive way while its application may be limited by uncertain factors. Great progress has been made over the years, lots of studies decompose the uncertainties of geological model to analyze separately, while ignored the comprehensive impacts of multi-source uncertainties. Great progress has been made over the years, while lots of studies ignored the comprehensive impacts of multi-source uncertainties when analyzed them item by item from each source. To evaluate the synthetical uncertainty, we choose probability distribution to quantify uncertainty, and propose a bayesian framework of uncertainties integration. With this framework, we integrated data errors, spatial randomness, and cognitive information into posterior distribution to evaluate synthetical uncertainty of geological model. Uncertainties propagate and cumulate in modeling process, the gradual integration of multi-source uncertainty is a kind of simulation of the uncertainty propagation. Bayesian inference accomplishes uncertainty updating in modeling process. Maximum entropy principle makes a good effect on estimating prior probability distribution, which ensures the prior probability distribution subjecting to constraints supplied by the given information with minimum prejudice. In the end, we obtained a posterior distribution to evaluate synthetical uncertainty of geological model. This posterior distribution represents the synthetical impact of all the uncertain factors on the spatial structure of geological model. The framework provides a solution to evaluate synthetical impact on geological model of multi-source uncertainties and a thought to study uncertainty propagation mechanism in geological modeling.

Direct comparison of phase-sensitive vibrational sum frequency generation with maximum entropy method: case study of water.

PubMed

de Beer, Alex G F; Samson, Jean-Sebastièn; Hua, Wei; Huang, Zishuai; Chen, Xiangke; Allen, Heather C; Roke, Sylvie

2011-12-14

We present a direct comparison of phase sensitive sum-frequency generation experiments with phase reconstruction obtained by the maximum entropy method. We show that both methods lead to the same complex spectrum. Furthermore, we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each of these methods, analyzing possible sources of experimental and analytical errors. A simulation program for maximum entropy phase reconstruction is available at: http://lbp.epfl.ch/. © 2011 American Institute of Physics

Consistent maximum entropy representations of pipe flow networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldrip, Steven H.; Niven, Robert K.; Abel, Markus; Schlegel, Michael

2017-06-01

The maximum entropy method is used to predict flows on water distribution networks. This analysis extends the water distribution network formulation of Waldrip et al. (2016) Journal of Hydraulic Engineering (ASCE), by the use of a continuous relative entropy defined on a reduced parameter set. This reduction in the parameters that the entropy is defined over ensures consistency between different representations of the same network. The performance of the proposed reduced parameter method is demonstrated with a one-loop network case study.

Comment on "Inference with minimal Gibbs free energy in information field theory".

PubMed

Iatsenko, D; Stefanovska, A; McClintock, P V E

2012-03-01

Enßlin and Weig [Phys. Rev. E 82, 051112 (2010)] have introduced a "minimum Gibbs free energy" (MGFE) approach for estimation of the mean signal and signal uncertainty in Bayesian inference problems: it aims to combine the maximum a posteriori (MAP) and maximum entropy (ME) principles. We point out, however, that there are some important questions to be clarified before the new approach can be considered fully justified, and therefore able to be used with confidence. In particular, after obtaining a Gaussian approximation to the posterior in terms of the MGFE at some temperature T, this approximation should always be raised to the power of T to yield a reliable estimate. In addition, we show explicitly that MGFE indeed incorporates the MAP principle, as well as the MDI (minimum discrimination information) approach, but not the well-known ME principle of Jaynes [E.T. Jaynes, Phys. Rev. 106, 620 (1957)]. We also illuminate some related issues and resolve apparent discrepancies. Finally, we investigate the performance of MGFE estimation for different values of T, and we discuss the advantages and shortcomings of the approach.

Maximum entropy production: Can it be used to constrain conceptual hydrological models?

Treesearch

M.C. Westhoff; E. Zehe

2013-01-01

In recent years, optimality principles have been proposed to constrain hydrological models. The principle of maximum entropy production (MEP) is one of the proposed principles and is subject of this study. It states that a steady state system is organized in such a way that entropy production is maximized. Although successful applications have been reported in...

On the statistical equivalence of restrained-ensemble simulations with the maximum entropy method

PubMed Central

Roux, Benoît; Weare, Jonathan

2013-01-01

An issue of general interest in computer simulations is to incorporate information from experiments into a structural model. An important caveat in pursuing this goal is to avoid corrupting the resulting model with spurious and arbitrary biases. While the problem of biasing thermodynamic ensembles can be formulated rigorously using the maximum entropy method introduced by Jaynes, the approach can be cumbersome in practical applications with the need to determine multiple unknown coefficients iteratively. A popular alternative strategy to incorporate the information from experiments is to rely on restrained-ensemble molecular dynamics simulations. However, the fundamental validity of this computational strategy remains in question. Here, it is demonstrated that the statistical distribution produced by restrained-ensemble simulations is formally consistent with the maximum entropy method of Jaynes. This clarifies the underlying conditions under which restrained-ensemble simulations will yield results that are consistent with the maximum entropy method. PMID:23464140

Maximum and minimum entropy states yielding local continuity bounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanson, Eric P.; Datta, Nilanjana

2018-04-01

Given an arbitrary quantum state (σ), we obtain an explicit construction of a state ρɛ * ( σ ) [respectively, ρ * , ɛ ( σ ) ] which has the maximum (respectively, minimum) entropy among all states which lie in a specified neighborhood (ɛ-ball) of σ. Computing the entropy of these states leads to a local strengthening of the continuity bound of the von Neumann entropy, i.e., the Audenaert-Fannes inequality. Our bound is local in the sense that it depends on the spectrum of σ. The states ρɛ * ( σ ) and ρ * , ɛ (σ) depend only on the geometry of the ɛ-ball and are in fact optimizers for a larger class of entropies. These include the Rényi entropy and the minimum- and maximum-entropies, providing explicit formulas for certain smoothed quantities. This allows us to obtain local continuity bounds for these quantities as well. In obtaining this bound, we first derive a more general result which may be of independent interest, namely, a necessary and sufficient condition under which a state maximizes a concave and Gâteaux-differentiable function in an ɛ-ball around a given state σ. Examples of such a function include the von Neumann entropy and the conditional entropy of bipartite states. Our proofs employ tools from the theory of convex optimization under non-differentiable constraints, in particular Fermat's rule, and majorization theory.

Complex Physical, Biophysical and Econophysical Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewar, Robert L.; Detering, Frank

1. Introduction to complex and econophysics systems: a navigation map / T. Aste and T. Di Matteo -- 2. An introduction to fractional diffusion / B. I. Henry, T.A.M. Langlands and P. Straka -- 3. Space plasmas and fusion plasmas as complex systems / R. O. Dendy -- 4. Bayesian data analysis / M. S. Wheatland -- 5. Inverse problems and complexity in earth system science / I. G. Enting -- 6. Applied fluid chaos: designing advection with periodically reoriented flows for micro to geophysical mixing and transport enhancement / G. Metcalfe -- 7. Approaches to modelling the dynamical activity of brain function based on the electroencephalogram / D. T. J. Liley and F. Frascoli -- 8. Jaynes' maximum entropy principle, Riemannian metrics and generalised least action bound / R. K. Niven and B. Andresen -- 9. Complexity, post-genomic biology and gene expression programs / R. B. H. Williams and O. J.-H. Luo -- 10. Tutorials on agent-based modelling with NetLogo and network analysis with Pajek / M. J. Berryman and S. D. Angus.

RESOLVE: A new algorithm for aperture synthesis imaging of extended emission in radio astronomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Junklewitz, H.; Bell, M. R.; Selig, M.; Enßlin, T. A.

2016-02-01

We present resolve, a new algorithm for radio aperture synthesis imaging of extended and diffuse emission in total intensity. The algorithm is derived using Bayesian statistical inference techniques, estimating the surface brightness in the sky assuming a priori log-normal statistics. resolve estimates the measured sky brightness in total intensity, and the spatial correlation structure in the sky, which is used to guide the algorithm to an optimal reconstruction of extended and diffuse sources. During this process, the algorithm succeeds in deconvolving the effects of the radio interferometric point spread function. Additionally, resolve provides a map with an uncertainty estimate of the reconstructed surface brightness. Furthermore, with resolve we introduce a new, optimal visibility weighting scheme that can be viewed as an extension to robust weighting. In tests using simulated observations, the algorithm shows improved performance against two standard imaging approaches for extended sources, Multiscale-CLEAN and the Maximum Entropy Method.

Predicting the geographical distribution of two invasive termite species from occurrence data.

PubMed

Tonini, Francesco; Divino, Fabio; Lasinio, Giovanna Jona; Hochmair, Hartwig H; Scheffrahn, Rudolf H

2014-10-01

Predicting the potential habitat of species under both current and future climate change scenarios is crucial for monitoring invasive species and understanding a species' response to different environmental conditions. Frequently, the only data available on a species is the location of its occurrence (presence-only data). Using occurrence records only, two models were used to predict the geographical distribution of two destructive invasive termite species, Coptotermes gestroi (Wasmann) and Coptotermes formosanus Shiraki. The first model uses a Bayesian linear logistic regression approach adjusted for presence-only data while the second one is the widely used maximum entropy approach (Maxent). Results show that the predicted distributions of both C. gestroi and C. formosanus are strongly linked to urban development. The impact of future scenarios such as climate warming and population growth on the biotic distribution of both termite species was also assessed. Future climate warming seems to affect their projected probability of presence to a lesser extent than population growth. The Bayesian logistic approach outperformed Maxent consistently in all models according to evaluation criteria such as model sensitivity and ecological realism. The importance of further studies for an explicit treatment of residual spatial autocorrelation and a more comprehensive comparison between both statistical approaches is suggested.

BAYESIAN ENTROPY FOR SPATIAL SAMPLING DESIGN OF ENVIRONMENTAL DATA

EPA Science Inventory

Particulate Matter (PM) has been linked to widespread public health effects, including a range of serious respiratory and cardiovascular problems, and to reduced visibility in may parts of the United States, see the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report (2004) and relevant...

From Maximum Entropy Models to Non-Stationarity and Irreversibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cofre, Rodrigo; Cessac, Bruno; Maldonado, Cesar

The maximum entropy distribution can be obtained from a variational principle. This is important as a matter of principle and for the purpose of finding approximate solutions. One can exploit this fact to obtain relevant information about the underlying stochastic process. We report here in recent progress in three aspects to this approach.1- Biological systems are expected to show some degree of irreversibility in time. Based on the transfer matrix technique to find the spatio-temporal maximum entropy distribution, we build a framework to quantify the degree of irreversibility of any maximum entropy distribution.2- The maximum entropy solution is characterized by a functional called Gibbs free energy (solution of the variational principle). The Legendre transformation of this functional is the rate function, which controls the speed of convergence of empirical averages to their ergodic mean. We show how the correct description of this functional is determinant for a more rigorous characterization of first and higher order phase transitions.3- We assess the impact of a weak time-dependent external stimulus on the collective statistics of spiking neuronal networks. We show how to evaluate this impact on any higher order spatio-temporal correlation. RC supported by ERC advanced Grant ``Bridges'', BC: KEOPS ANR-CONICYT, Renvision and CM: CONICYT-FONDECYT No. 3140572.

Fast and Efficient Stochastic Optimization for Analytic Continuation

DOE PAGES

Bao, Feng; Zhang, Guannan; Webster, Clayton G; ...

2016-09-28

In this analytic continuation of imaginary-time quantum Monte Carlo data to extract real-frequency spectra remains a key problem in connecting theory with experiment. Here we present a fast and efficient stochastic optimization method (FESOM) as a more accessible variant of the stochastic optimization method introduced by Mishchenko et al. [Phys. Rev. B 62, 6317 (2000)], and we benchmark the resulting spectra with those obtained by the standard maximum entropy method for three representative test cases, including data taken from studies of the two-dimensional Hubbard model. Genearally, we find that our FESOM approach yields spectra similar to the maximum entropy results.more » In particular, while the maximum entropy method yields superior results when the quality of the data is strong, we find that FESOM is able to resolve fine structure with more detail when the quality of the data is poor. In addition, because of its stochastic nature, the method provides detailed information on the frequency-dependent uncertainty of the resulting spectra, while the maximum entropy method does so only for the spectral weight integrated over a finite frequency region. Therefore, we believe that this variant of the stochastic optimization approach provides a viable alternative to the routinely used maximum entropy method, especially for data of poor quality.« less

Entropy-Bayesian Inversion of Time-Lapse Tomographic GPR data for Monitoring Dielectric Permittivity and Soil Moisture Variations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hou, Z; Terry, N; Hubbard, S S

2013-02-12

In this study, we evaluate the possibility of monitoring soil moisture variation using tomographic ground penetrating radar travel time data through Bayesian inversion, which is integrated with entropy memory function and pilot point concepts, as well as efficient sampling approaches. It is critical to accurately estimate soil moisture content and variations in vadose zone studies. Many studies have illustrated the promise and value of GPR tomographic data for estimating soil moisture and associated changes, however, challenges still exist in the inversion of GPR tomographic data in a manner that quantifies input and predictive uncertainty, incorporates multiple data types, handles non-uniquenessmore » and nonlinearity, and honors time-lapse tomograms collected in a series. To address these challenges, we develop a minimum relative entropy (MRE)-Bayesian based inverse modeling framework that non-subjectively defines prior probabilities, incorporates information from multiple sources, and quantifies uncertainty. The framework enables us to estimate dielectric permittivity at pilot point locations distributed within the tomogram, as well as the spatial correlation range. In the inversion framework, MRE is first used to derive prior probability distribution functions (pdfs) of dielectric permittivity based on prior information obtained from a straight-ray GPR inversion. The probability distributions are then sampled using a Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) approach, and the sample sets provide inputs to a sequential Gaussian simulation (SGSim) algorithm that constructs a highly resolved permittivity/velocity field for evaluation with a curved-ray GPR forward model. The likelihood functions are computed as a function of misfits, and posterior pdfs are constructed using a Gaussian kernel. Inversion of subsequent time-lapse datasets combines the Bayesian estimates from the previous inversion (as a memory function) with new data. The memory function and pilot point design takes advantage of the spatial-temporal correlation of the state variables. We first apply the inversion framework to a static synthetic example and then to a time-lapse GPR tomographic dataset collected during a dynamic experiment conducted at the Hanford Site in Richland, WA. We demonstrate that the MRE-Bayesian inversion enables us to merge various data types, quantify uncertainty, evaluate nonlinear models, and produce more detailed and better resolved estimates than straight-ray based inversion; therefore, it has the potential to improve estimates of inter-wellbore dielectric permittivity and soil moisture content and to monitor their temporal dynamics more accurately.« less

Entropy-Bayesian Inversion of Time-Lapse Tomographic GPR data for Monitoring Dielectric Permittivity and Soil Moisture Variations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hou, Zhangshuan; Terry, Neil C.; Hubbard, Susan S.

2013-02-22

In this study, we evaluate the possibility of monitoring soil moisture variation using tomographic ground penetrating radar travel time data through Bayesian inversion, which is integrated with entropy memory function and pilot point concepts, as well as efficient sampling approaches. It is critical to accurately estimate soil moisture content and variations in vadose zone studies. Many studies have illustrated the promise and value of GPR tomographic data for estimating soil moisture and associated changes, however, challenges still exist in the inversion of GPR tomographic data in a manner that quantifies input and predictive uncertainty, incorporates multiple data types, handles non-uniquenessmore » and nonlinearity, and honors time-lapse tomograms collected in a series. To address these challenges, we develop a minimum relative entropy (MRE)-Bayesian based inverse modeling framework that non-subjectively defines prior probabilities, incorporates information from multiple sources, and quantifies uncertainty. The framework enables us to estimate dielectric permittivity at pilot point locations distributed within the tomogram, as well as the spatial correlation range. In the inversion framework, MRE is first used to derive prior probability density functions (pdfs) of dielectric permittivity based on prior information obtained from a straight-ray GPR inversion. The probability distributions are then sampled using a Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) approach, and the sample sets provide inputs to a sequential Gaussian simulation (SGSIM) algorithm that constructs a highly resolved permittivity/velocity field for evaluation with a curved-ray GPR forward model. The likelihood functions are computed as a function of misfits, and posterior pdfs are constructed using a Gaussian kernel. Inversion of subsequent time-lapse datasets combines the Bayesian estimates from the previous inversion (as a memory function) with new data. The memory function and pilot point design takes advantage of the spatial-temporal correlation of the state variables. We first apply the inversion framework to a static synthetic example and then to a time-lapse GPR tomographic dataset collected during a dynamic experiment conducted at the Hanford Site in Richland, WA. We demonstrate that the MRE-Bayesian inversion enables us to merge various data types, quantify uncertainty, evaluate nonlinear models, and produce more detailed and better resolved estimates than straight-ray based inversion; therefore, it has the potential to improve estimates of inter-wellbore dielectric permittivity and soil moisture content and to monitor their temporal dynamics more accurately.« less

Crowd macro state detection using entropy model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Ying; Yuan, Mengqi; Su, Guofeng; Chen, Tao

2015-08-01

In the crowd security research area a primary concern is to identify the macro state of crowd behaviors to prevent disasters and to supervise the crowd behaviors. The entropy is used to describe the macro state of a self-organization system in physics. The entropy change indicates the system macro state change. This paper provides a method to construct crowd behavior microstates and the corresponded probability distribution using the individuals' velocity information (magnitude and direction). Then an entropy model was built up to describe the crowd behavior macro state. Simulation experiments and video detection experiments were conducted. It was verified that in the disordered state, the crowd behavior entropy is close to the theoretical maximum entropy; while in ordered state, the entropy is much lower than half of the theoretical maximum entropy. The crowd behavior macro state sudden change leads to the entropy change. The proposed entropy model is more applicable than the order parameter model in crowd behavior detection. By recognizing the entropy mutation, it is possible to detect the crowd behavior macro state automatically by utilizing cameras. Results will provide data support on crowd emergency prevention and on emergency manual intervention.

Bayesian networks in overlay recipe optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Binns, Lewis A.; Reynolds, Greg; Rigden, Timothy C.; Watkins, Stephen; Soroka, Andrew

2005-05-01

Currently, overlay measurements are characterized by "recipe", which defines both physical parameters such as focus, illumination et cetera, and also the software parameters such as algorithm to be used and regions of interest. Setting up these recipes requires both engineering time and wafer availability on an overlay tool, so reducing these requirements will result in higher tool productivity. One of the significant challenges to automating this process is that the parameters are highly and complexly correlated. At the same time, a high level of traceability and transparency is required in the recipe creation process, so a technique that maintains its decisions in terms of well defined physical parameters is desirable. Running time should be short, given the system (automatic recipe creation) is being implemented to reduce overheads. Finally, a failure of the system to determine acceptable parameters should be obvious, so a certainty metric is also desirable. The complex, nonlinear interactions make solution by an expert system difficult at best, especially in the verification of the resulting decision network. The transparency requirements tend to preclude classical neural networks and similar techniques. Genetic algorithms and other "global minimization" techniques require too much computational power (given system footprint and cost requirements). A Bayesian network, however, provides a solution to these requirements. Such a network, with appropriate priors, can be used during recipe creation / optimization not just to select a good set of parameters, but also to guide the direction of search, by evaluating the network state while only incomplete information is available. As a Bayesian network maintains an estimate of the probability distribution of nodal values, a maximum-entropy approach can be utilized to obtain a working recipe in a minimum or near-minimum number of steps. In this paper we discuss the potential use of a Bayesian network in such a capacity, reducing the amount of engineering intervention. We discuss the benefits of this approach, especially improved repeatability and traceability of the learning process, and quantification of uncertainty in decisions made. We also consider the problems associated with this approach, especially in detailed construction of network topology, validation of the Bayesian network and the recipes it generates, and issues arising from the integration of a Bayesian network with a complex multithreaded application; these primarily relate to maintaining Bayesian network and system architecture integrity.

Driver Fatigue Classification With Independent Component by Entropy Rate Bound Minimization Analysis in an EEG-Based System.

PubMed

Chai, Rifai; Naik, Ganesh R; Nguyen, Tuan Nghia; Ling, Sai Ho; Tran, Yvonne; Craig, Ashley; Nguyen, Hung T

2017-05-01

This paper presents a two-class electroencephal-ography-based classification for classifying of driver fatigue (fatigue state versus alert state) from 43 healthy participants. The system uses independent component by entropy rate bound minimization analysis (ERBM-ICA) for the source separation, autoregressive (AR) modeling for the features extraction, and Bayesian neural network for the classification algorithm. The classification results demonstrate a sensitivity of 89.7%, a specificity of 86.8%, and an accuracy of 88.2%. The combination of ERBM-ICA (source separator), AR (feature extractor), and Bayesian neural network (classifier) provides the best outcome with a p-value < 0.05 with the highest value of area under the receiver operating curve (AUC-ROC = 0.93) against other methods such as power spectral density as feature extractor (AUC-ROC = 0.81). The results of this study suggest the method could be utilized effectively for a countermeasure device for driver fatigue identification and other adverse event applications.

Maximum-Entropy Inference with a Programmable Annealer

PubMed Central

Chancellor, Nicholas; Szoke, Szilard; Vinci, Walter; Aeppli, Gabriel; Warburton, Paul A.

2016-01-01

Optimisation problems typically involve finding the ground state (i.e. the minimum energy configuration) of a cost function with respect to many variables. If the variables are corrupted by noise then this maximises the likelihood that the solution is correct. The maximum entropy solution on the other hand takes the form of a Boltzmann distribution over the ground and excited states of the cost function to correct for noise. Here we use a programmable annealer for the information decoding problem which we simulate as a random Ising model in a field. We show experimentally that finite temperature maximum entropy decoding can give slightly better bit-error-rates than the maximum likelihood approach, confirming that useful information can be extracted from the excited states of the annealer. Furthermore we introduce a bit-by-bit analytical method which is agnostic to the specific application and use it to show that the annealer samples from a highly Boltzmann-like distribution. Machines of this kind are therefore candidates for use in a variety of machine learning applications which exploit maximum entropy inference, including language processing and image recognition. PMID:26936311

Block entropy and quantum phase transition in the anisotropic Kondo necklace model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza-Arenas, J. J.; Franco, R.; Silva-Valencia, J.

2010-06-01

We study the von Neumann block entropy in the Kondo necklace model for different anisotropies η in the XY interaction between conduction spins using the density matrix renormalization group method. It was found that the block entropy presents a maximum for each η considered, and, comparing it with the results of the quantum criticality of the model based on the behavior of the energy gap, we observe that the maximum block entropy occurs at the quantum critical point between an antiferromagnetic and a Kondo singlet state, so this measure of entanglement is useful for giving information about where a quantum phase transition occurs in this model. We observe that the block entropy also presents a maximum at the quantum critical points that are obtained when an anisotropy Δ is included in the Kondo exchange between localized and conduction spins; when Δ diminishes for a fixed value of η, the critical point increases, favoring the antiferromagnetic phase.

Spatiotemporal approaches to analyzing pedestrian fatalities: the case of Cali, Colombia.

PubMed

Fox, Lani; Serre, Marc L; Lippmann, Steven J; Rodríguez, Daniel A; Bangdiwala, Shrikant I; Gutiérrez, María Isabel; Escobar, Guido; Villaveces, Andrés

2015-01-01

Injuries among pedestrians are a major public health concern in Colombian cities such as Cali. This is one of the first studies in Latin America to apply Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) methods to visualize and produce fine-scale, highly accurate estimates of citywide pedestrian fatalities. The purpose of this study is to determine the BME method that best estimates pedestrian mortality rates and reduces statistical noise. We further utilized BME methods to identify and differentiate spatial patterns and persistent versus transient pedestrian mortality hotspots. In this multiyear study, geocoded pedestrian mortality data from the Cali Injury Surveillance System (2008 to 2010) and census data were utilized to accurately visualize and estimate pedestrian fatalities. We investigated the effects of temporal and spatial scales, addressing issues arising from the rarity of pedestrian fatality events using 3 BME methods (simple kriging, Poisson kriging, and uniform model Bayesian maximum entropy). To reduce statistical noise while retaining a fine spatial and temporal scale, data were aggregated over 9-month incidence periods and censal sectors. Based on a cross-validation of BME methods, Poisson kriging was selected as the best BME method. Finally, the spatiotemporal and urban built environment characteristics of Cali pedestrian mortality hotspots were linked to intervention measures provided in Mead et al.'s (2014) pedestrian mortality review. The BME space-time analysis in Cali resulted in maps displaying hotspots of high pedestrian fatalities extending over small areas with radii of 0.25 to 1.1 km and temporal durations of 1 month to 3 years. Mapping the spatiotemporal distribution of pedestrian mortality rates identified high-priority areas for prevention strategies. The BME results allow us to identify possible intervention strategies according to the persistence and built environment of the hotspot; for example, through enforcement or long-term environmental modifications. BME methods provide useful information on the time and place of injuries and can inform policy strategies by isolating priority areas for interventions, contributing to intervention evaluation, and helping to generate hypotheses and identify the preventative strategies that may be suitable to those areas (e.g., street-level methods: pedestrian crossings, enforcement interventions; or citywide approaches: limiting vehicle speeds). This specific information is highly relevant for public health interventions because it provides the ability to target precise locations.

Entropy of adsorption of mixed surfactants from solutions onto the air/water interface

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, L.-W.; Chen, J.-H.; Zhou, N.-F.

1995-01-01

The partial molar entropy change for mixed surfactant molecules adsorbed from solution at the air/water interface has been investigated by surface thermodynamics based upon the experimental surface tension isotherms at various temperatures. Results for different surfactant mixtures of sodium dodecyl sulfate and sodium tetradecyl sulfate, decylpyridinium chloride and sodium alkylsulfonates have shown that the partial molar entropy changes for adsorption of the mixed surfactants were generally negative and decreased with increasing adsorption to a minimum near the maximum adsorption and then increased abruptly. The entropy decrease can be explained by the adsorption-orientation of surfactant molecules in the adsorbed monolayer and the abrupt entropy increase at the maximum adsorption is possible due to the strong repulsion between the adsorbed molecules.

Tsallis Entropy and the Transition to Scaling in Fragmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sotolongo-Costa, Oscar; Rodriguez, Arezky H.; Rodgers, G. J.

2000-12-01

By using the maximum entropy principle with Tsallis entropy we obtain a fragment size distribution function which undergoes a transition to scaling. This distribution function reduces to those obtained by other authors using Shannon entropy. The treatment is easily generalisable to any process of fractioning with suitable constraints.

A pairwise maximum entropy model accurately describes resting-state human brain networks

PubMed Central

Watanabe, Takamitsu; Hirose, Satoshi; Wada, Hiroyuki; Imai, Yoshio; Machida, Toru; Shirouzu, Ichiro; Konishi, Seiki; Miyashita, Yasushi; Masuda, Naoki

2013-01-01

The resting-state human brain networks underlie fundamental cognitive functions and consist of complex interactions among brain regions. However, the level of complexity of the resting-state networks has not been quantified, which has prevented comprehensive descriptions of the brain activity as an integrative system. Here, we address this issue by demonstrating that a pairwise maximum entropy model, which takes into account region-specific activity rates and pairwise interactions, can be robustly and accurately fitted to resting-state human brain activities obtained by functional magnetic resonance imaging. Furthermore, to validate the approximation of the resting-state networks by the pairwise maximum entropy model, we show that the functional interactions estimated by the pairwise maximum entropy model reflect anatomical connexions more accurately than the conventional functional connectivity method. These findings indicate that a relatively simple statistical model not only captures the structure of the resting-state networks but also provides a possible method to derive physiological information about various large-scale brain networks. PMID:23340410

Minimally Informative Prior Distributions for PSA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dana L. Kelly; Robert W. Youngblood; Kurt G. Vedros

2010-06-01

A salient feature of Bayesian inference is its ability to incorporate information from a variety of sources into the inference model, via the prior distribution (hereafter simply “the prior”). However, over-reliance on old information can lead to priors that dominate new data. Some analysts seek to avoid this by trying to work with a minimally informative prior distribution. Another reason for choosing a minimally informative prior is to avoid the often-voiced criticism of subjectivity in the choice of prior. Minimally informative priors fall into two broad classes: 1) so-called noninformative priors, which attempt to be completely objective, in that themore » posterior distribution is determined as completely as possible by the observed data, the most well known example in this class being the Jeffreys prior, and 2) priors that are diffuse over the region where the likelihood function is nonnegligible, but that incorporate some information about the parameters being estimated, such as a mean value. In this paper, we compare four approaches in the second class, with respect to their practical implications for Bayesian inference in Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). The most commonly used such prior, the so-called constrained noninformative prior, is a special case of the maximum entropy prior. This is formulated as a conjugate distribution for the most commonly encountered aleatory models in PSA, and is correspondingly mathematically convenient; however, it has a relatively light tail and this can cause the posterior mean to be overly influenced by the prior in updates with sparse data. A more informative prior that is capable, in principle, of dealing more effectively with sparse data is a mixture of conjugate priors. A particular diffuse nonconjugate prior, the logistic-normal, is shown to behave similarly for some purposes. Finally, we review the so-called robust prior. Rather than relying on the mathematical abstraction of entropy, as does the constrained noninformative prior, the robust prior places a heavy-tailed Cauchy prior on the canonical parameter of the aleatory model.« less

Infrared image segmentation method based on spatial coherence histogram and maximum entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Songtao; Shen, Tongsheng; Dai, Yao

2014-11-01

In order to segment the target well and suppress background noises effectively, an infrared image segmentation method based on spatial coherence histogram and maximum entropy is proposed. First, spatial coherence histogram is presented by weighting the importance of the different position of these pixels with the same gray-level, which is obtained by computing their local density. Then, after enhancing the image by spatial coherence histogram, 1D maximum entropy method is used to segment the image. The novel method can not only get better segmentation results, but also have a faster computation time than traditional 2D histogram-based segmentation methods.

Stationary properties of maximum-entropy random walks.

PubMed

Dixit, Purushottam D

2015-10-01

Maximum-entropy (ME) inference of state probabilities using state-dependent constraints is popular in the study of complex systems. In stochastic systems, how state space topology and path-dependent constraints affect ME-inferred state probabilities remains unknown. To that end, we derive the transition probabilities and the stationary distribution of a maximum path entropy Markov process subject to state- and path-dependent constraints. A main finding is that the stationary distribution over states differs significantly from the Boltzmann distribution and reflects a competition between path multiplicity and imposed constraints. We illustrate our results with particle diffusion on a two-dimensional landscape. Connections with the path integral approach to diffusion are discussed.

Entropy generation in biophysical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucia, U.; Maino, G.

2013-03-01

Recently, in theoretical biology and in biophysical engineering the entropy production has been verified to approach asymptotically its maximum rate, by using the probability of individual elementary modes distributed in accordance with the Boltzmann distribution. The basis of this approach is the hypothesis that the entropy production rate is maximum at the stationary state. In the present work, this hypothesis is explained and motivated, starting from the entropy generation analysis. This latter quantity is obtained from the entropy balance for open systems considering the lifetime of the natural real process. The Lagrangian formalism is introduced in order to develop an analytical approach to the thermodynamic analysis of the open irreversible systems. The stationary conditions of the open systems are thus obtained in relation to the entropy generation and the least action principle. Consequently, the considered hypothesis is analytically proved and it represents an original basic approach in theoretical and mathematical biology and also in biophysical engineering. It is worth remarking that the present results show that entropy generation not only increases but increases as fast as possible.

Determining Dynamical Path Distributions usingMaximum Relative Entropy

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-31

entropy to a one-dimensional continuum labeled by a parameter η. The resulting η-entropies are equivalent to those proposed by Renyi [12] or by Tsallis [13...1995). [12] A. Renyi , “On measures of entropy and information,”Proc. 4th Berkeley Simposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, Vol 1, p. 547-461

Ergodicity, Maximum Entropy Production, and Steepest Entropy Ascent in the Proofs of Onsager's Reciprocal Relations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benfenati, Francesco; Beretta, Gian Paolo

2018-04-01

We show that to prove the Onsager relations using the microscopic time reversibility one necessarily has to make an ergodic hypothesis, or a hypothesis closely linked to that. This is true in all the proofs of the Onsager relations in the literature: from the original proof by Onsager, to more advanced proofs in the context of linear response theory and the theory of Markov processes, to the proof in the context of the kinetic theory of gases. The only three proofs that do not require any kind of ergodic hypothesis are based on additional hypotheses on the macroscopic evolution: Ziegler's maximum entropy production principle (MEPP), the principle of time reversal invariance of the entropy production, or the steepest entropy ascent principle (SEAP).

Elements of the cognitive universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topsøe, Flemming

2017-06-01

"The least biased inference, taking available information into account, is the one with maximum entropy". So we are taught by Jaynes. The many followers from a broad spectrum of the natural and social sciences point to the wisdom of this principle, the maximum entropy principle, MaxEnt. But "entropy" need not be tied only to classical entropy and thus to probabilistic thinking. In fact, the arguments found in Jaynes' writings and elsewhere can, as we shall attempt to demonstrate, profitably be revisited, elaborated and transformed to apply in a much more general abstract setting. The approach is based on game theoretical thinking. Philosophical considerations dealing with notions of cognition - basically truth and belief - lie behind. Quantitative elements are introduced via a concept of description effort. An interpretation of Tsallis Entropy is indicated.

Exploiting the Maximum Entropy Principle to Increase Retrieval Effectiveness.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, William S.

1983-01-01

Presents information retrieval design approach in which queries of computer-based system consist of sets of terms, either unweighted or weighted with subjective term precision estimates, and retrieval outputs ranked by probability of usefulness estimated by "maximum entropy principle." Boolean and weighted request systems are discussed.…

Exploration of the Maximum Entropy/Optimal Projection Approach to Control Design Synthesis for Large Space Structures.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-02-01

Energy Analysis , a branch of dynamic modal analysis developed for analyzing acoustic vibration problems, its present stage of development embodies a...Maximum Entropy Stochastic Modelling and Reduced-Order Design Synthesis is a rigorous new approach to this class of problems. Inspired by Statistical

New applications of maximum likelihood and Bayesian statistics in macromolecular crystallography.

PubMed

McCoy, Airlie J

2002-10-01

Maximum likelihood methods are well known to macromolecular crystallographers as the methods of choice for isomorphous phasing and structure refinement. Recently, the use of maximum likelihood and Bayesian statistics has extended to the areas of molecular replacement and density modification, placing these methods on a stronger statistical foundation and making them more accurate and effective.

Bayesian framework inspired no-reference region-of-interest quality measure for brain MRI images

PubMed Central

Osadebey, Michael; Pedersen, Marius; Arnold, Douglas; Wendel-Mitoraj, Katrina

2017-01-01

Abstract. We describe a postacquisition, attribute-based quality assessment method for brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) images. It is based on the application of Bayes theory to the relationship between entropy and image quality attributes. The entropy feature image of a slice is segmented into low- and high-entropy regions. For each entropy region, there are three separate observations of contrast, standard deviation, and sharpness quality attributes. A quality index for a quality attribute is the posterior probability of an entropy region given any corresponding region in a feature image where quality attribute is observed. Prior belief in each entropy region is determined from normalized total clique potential (TCP) energy of the slice. For TCP below the predefined threshold, the prior probability for a region is determined by deviation of its percentage composition in the slice from a standard normal distribution built from 250 MRI volume data provided by Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. For TCP above the threshold, the prior is computed using a mathematical model that describes the TCP–noise level relationship in brain MRI images. Our proposed method assesses the image quality of each entropy region and the global image. Experimental results demonstrate good correlation with subjective opinions of radiologists for different types and levels of quality distortions. PMID:28630885

Testing students' e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling.

PubMed

Salarzadeh Jenatabadi, Hashem; Moghavvemi, Sedigheh; Wan Mohamed Radzi, Che Wan Jasimah Bt; Babashamsi, Parastoo; Arashi, Mohammad

2017-01-01

Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students' intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data) were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods' results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated.

Testing students’ e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling

PubMed Central

Moghavvemi, Sedigheh; Wan Mohamed Radzi, Che Wan Jasimah Bt; Babashamsi, Parastoo; Arashi, Mohammad

2017-01-01

Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students’ intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data) were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods’ results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated. PMID:28886019

Inverting ion images without Abel inversion: maximum entropy reconstruction of velocity maps.

PubMed

Dick, Bernhard

2014-01-14

A new method for the reconstruction of velocity maps from ion images is presented, which is based on the maximum entropy concept. In contrast to other methods used for Abel inversion the new method never applies an inversion or smoothing to the data. Instead, it iteratively finds the map which is the most likely cause for the observed data, using the correct likelihood criterion for data sampled from a Poissonian distribution. The entropy criterion minimizes the information content in this map, which hence contains no information for which there is no evidence in the data. Two implementations are proposed, and their performance is demonstrated with simulated and experimental data: Maximum Entropy Velocity Image Reconstruction (MEVIR) obtains a two-dimensional slice through the velocity distribution and can be compared directly to Abel inversion. Maximum Entropy Velocity Legendre Reconstruction (MEVELER) finds one-dimensional distribution functions Q(l)(v) in an expansion of the velocity distribution in Legendre polynomials P((cos θ) for the angular dependence. Both MEVIR and MEVELER can be used for the analysis of ion images with intensities as low as 0.01 counts per pixel, with MEVELER performing significantly better than MEVIR for images with low intensity. Both methods perform better than pBASEX, in particular for images with less than one average count per pixel.

Chapman Enskog-maximum entropy method on time-dependent neutron transport equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdou, M. A.

2006-09-01

The time-dependent neutron transport equation in semi and infinite medium with linear anisotropic and Rayleigh scattering is proposed. The problem is solved by means of the flux-limited, Chapman Enskog-maximum entropy for obtaining the solution of the time-dependent neutron transport. The solution gives the neutron distribution density function which is used to compute numerically the radiant energy density E(x,t), net flux F(x,t) and reflectivity Rf. The behaviour of the approximate flux-limited maximum entropy neutron density function are compared with those found by other theories. Numerical calculations for the radiant energy, net flux and reflectivity of the proposed medium are calculated at different time and space.

Dynamics of non-stationary processes that follow the maximum of the Rényi entropy principle.

PubMed

Shalymov, Dmitry S; Fradkov, Alexander L

2016-01-01

We propose dynamics equations which describe the behaviour of non-stationary processes that follow the maximum Rényi entropy principle. The equations are derived on the basis of the speed-gradient principle originated in the control theory. The maximum of the Rényi entropy principle is analysed for discrete and continuous cases, and both a discrete random variable and probability density function (PDF) are used. We consider mass conservation and energy conservation constraints and demonstrate the uniqueness of the limit distribution and asymptotic convergence of the PDF for both cases. The coincidence of the limit distribution of the proposed equations with the Rényi distribution is examined.

Dynamics of non-stationary processes that follow the maximum of the Rényi entropy principle

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

We propose dynamics equations which describe the behaviour of non-stationary processes that follow the maximum Rényi entropy principle. The equations are derived on the basis of the speed-gradient principle originated in the control theory. The maximum of the Rényi entropy principle is analysed for discrete and continuous cases, and both a discrete random variable and probability density function (PDF) are used. We consider mass conservation and energy conservation constraints and demonstrate the uniqueness of the limit distribution and asymptotic convergence of the PDF for both cases. The coincidence of the limit distribution of the proposed equations with the Rényi distribution is examined. PMID:26997886

Maximum-entropy description of animal movement.

PubMed

Fleming, Chris H; Subaşı, Yiğit; Calabrese, Justin M

2015-03-01

We introduce a class of maximum-entropy states that naturally includes within it all of the major continuous-time stochastic processes that have been applied to animal movement, including Brownian motion, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck motion, integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck motion, a recently discovered hybrid of the previous models, and a new model that describes central-place foraging. We are also able to predict a further hierarchy of new models that will emerge as data quality improves to better resolve the underlying continuity of animal movement. Finally, we also show that Langevin equations must obey a fluctuation-dissipation theorem to generate processes that fall from this class of maximum-entropy distributions when the constraints are purely kinematic.

Exact computation of the maximum-entropy potential of spiking neural-network models.

PubMed

Cofré, R; Cessac, B

2014-05-01

Understanding how stimuli and synaptic connectivity influence the statistics of spike patterns in neural networks is a central question in computational neuroscience. The maximum-entropy approach has been successfully used to characterize the statistical response of simultaneously recorded spiking neurons responding to stimuli. However, in spite of good performance in terms of prediction, the fitting parameters do not explain the underlying mechanistic causes of the observed correlations. On the other hand, mathematical models of spiking neurons (neuromimetic models) provide a probabilistic mapping between the stimulus, network architecture, and spike patterns in terms of conditional probabilities. In this paper we build an exact analytical mapping between neuromimetic and maximum-entropy models.

Application of the Maximum Entropy Method to Risk Analysis of Mergers and Acquisitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Jigang; Song, Wenyun

The maximum entropy (ME) method can be used to analyze the risk of mergers and acquisitions when only pre-acquisition information is available. A practical example of the risk analysis of China listed firms’ mergers and acquisitions is provided to testify the feasibility and practicality of the method.

Exploiting Acoustic and Syntactic Features for Automatic Prosody Labeling in a Maximum Entropy Framework

PubMed Central

Sridhar, Vivek Kumar Rangarajan; Bangalore, Srinivas; Narayanan, Shrikanth S.

2009-01-01

In this paper, we describe a maximum entropy-based automatic prosody labeling framework that exploits both language and speech information. We apply the proposed framework to both prominence and phrase structure detection within the Tones and Break Indices (ToBI) annotation scheme. Our framework utilizes novel syntactic features in the form of supertags and a quantized acoustic–prosodic feature representation that is similar to linear parameterizations of the prosodic contour. The proposed model is trained discriminatively and is robust in the selection of appropriate features for the task of prosody detection. The proposed maximum entropy acoustic–syntactic model achieves pitch accent and boundary tone detection accuracies of 86.0% and 93.1% on the Boston University Radio News corpus, and, 79.8% and 90.3% on the Boston Directions corpus. The phrase structure detection through prosodic break index labeling provides accuracies of 84% and 87% on the two corpora, respectively. The reported results are significantly better than previously reported results and demonstrate the strength of maximum entropy model in jointly modeling simple lexical, syntactic, and acoustic features for automatic prosody labeling. PMID:19603083

Holographic equipartition and the maximization of entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishna, P. B.; Mathew, Titus K.

2017-09-01

The accelerated expansion of the Universe can be interpreted as a tendency to satisfy holographic equipartition. It can be expressed by a simple law, Δ V =Δ t (Nsurf-ɛ Nbulk) , where V is the Hubble volume in Planck units, t is the cosmic time in Planck units, and Nsurf /bulk is the number of degrees of freedom on the horizon/bulk of the Universe. We show that this holographic equipartition law effectively implies the maximization of entropy. In the cosmological context, a system that obeys the holographic equipartition law behaves as an ordinary macroscopic system that proceeds to an equilibrium state of maximum entropy. We consider the standard Λ CDM model of the Universe and show that it is consistent with the holographic equipartition law. Analyzing the entropy evolution, we find that it also proceeds to an equilibrium state of maximum entropy.

Evaluating Bayesian spatial methods for modelling species distributions with clumped and restricted occurrence data.

PubMed

Redding, David W; Lucas, Tim C D; Blackburn, Tim M; Jones, Kate E

2017-01-01

Statistical approaches for inferring the spatial distribution of taxa (Species Distribution Models, SDMs) commonly rely on available occurrence data, which is often clumped and geographically restricted. Although available SDM methods address some of these factors, they could be more directly and accurately modelled using a spatially-explicit approach. Software to fit models with spatial autocorrelation parameters in SDMs are now widely available, but whether such approaches for inferring SDMs aid predictions compared to other methodologies is unknown. Here, within a simulated environment using 1000 generated species' ranges, we compared the performance of two commonly used non-spatial SDM methods (Maximum Entropy Modelling, MAXENT and boosted regression trees, BRT), to a spatial Bayesian SDM method (fitted using R-INLA), when the underlying data exhibit varying combinations of clumping and geographic restriction. Finally, we tested how any recommended methodological settings designed to account for spatially non-random patterns in the data impact inference. Spatial Bayesian SDM method was the most consistently accurate method, being in the top 2 most accurate methods in 7 out of 8 data sampling scenarios. Within high-coverage sample datasets, all methods performed fairly similarly. When sampling points were randomly spread, BRT had a 1-3% greater accuracy over the other methods and when samples were clumped, the spatial Bayesian SDM method had a 4%-8% better AUC score. Alternatively, when sampling points were restricted to a small section of the true range all methods were on average 10-12% less accurate, with greater variation among the methods. Model inference under the recommended settings to account for autocorrelation was not impacted by clumping or restriction of data, except for the complexity of the spatial regression term in the spatial Bayesian model. Methods, such as those made available by R-INLA, can be successfully used to account for spatial autocorrelation in an SDM context and, by taking account of random effects, produce outputs that can better elucidate the role of covariates in predicting species occurrence. Given that it is often unclear what the drivers are behind data clumping in an empirical occurrence dataset, or indeed how geographically restricted these data are, spatially-explicit Bayesian SDMs may be the better choice when modelling the spatial distribution of target species.

Merging Digital Surface Models Implementing Bayesian Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadeq, H.; Drummond, J.; Li, Z.

2016-06-01

In this research different DSMs from different sources have been merged. The merging is based on a probabilistic model using a Bayesian Approach. The implemented data have been sourced from very high resolution satellite imagery sensors (e.g. WorldView-1 and Pleiades). It is deemed preferable to use a Bayesian Approach when the data obtained from the sensors are limited and it is difficult to obtain many measurements or it would be very costly, thus the problem of the lack of data can be solved by introducing a priori estimations of data. To infer the prior data, it is assumed that the roofs of the buildings are specified as smooth, and for that purpose local entropy has been implemented. In addition to the a priori estimations, GNSS RTK measurements have been collected in the field which are used as check points to assess the quality of the DSMs and to validate the merging result. The model has been applied in the West-End of Glasgow containing different kinds of buildings, such as flat roofed and hipped roofed buildings. Both quantitative and qualitative methods have been employed to validate the merged DSM. The validation results have shown that the model was successfully able to improve the quality of the DSMs and improving some characteristics such as the roof surfaces, which consequently led to better representations. In addition to that, the developed model has been compared with the well established Maximum Likelihood model and showed similar quantitative statistical results and better qualitative results. Although the proposed model has been applied on DSMs that were derived from satellite imagery, it can be applied to any other sourced DSMs.

Uncertainty estimation of the self-thinning process by Maximum-Entropy Principle

Treesearch

Shoufan Fang; George Z. Gertner

2000-01-01

When available information is scarce, the Maximum-Entropy Principle can estimate the distributions of parameters. In our case study, we estimated the distributions of the parameters of the forest self-thinning process based on literature information, and we derived the conditional distribution functions and estimated the 95 percent confidence interval (CI) of the self-...

A unified approach to computational drug discovery.

PubMed

Tseng, Chih-Yuan; Tuszynski, Jack

2015-11-01

It has been reported that a slowdown in the development of new medical therapies is affecting clinical outcomes. The FDA has thus initiated the Critical Path Initiative project investigating better approaches. We review the current strategies in drug discovery and focus on the advantages of the maximum entropy method being introduced in this area. The maximum entropy principle is derived from statistical thermodynamics and has been demonstrated to be an inductive inference tool. We propose a unified method to drug discovery that hinges on robust information processing using entropic inductive inference. Increasingly, applications of maximum entropy in drug discovery employ this unified approach and demonstrate the usefulness of the concept in the area of pharmaceutical sciences. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Bayesian Monte Carlo and Maximum Likelihood Approach for Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management: Application to Lake Oxygen Recovery Model

EPA Science Inventory

Model uncertainty estimation and risk assessment is essential to environmental management and informed decision making on pollution mitigation strategies. In this study, we apply a probabilistic methodology, which combines Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and Maximum Likelihood e...

Conformational ensembles of RNA oligonucleotides from integrating NMR and molecular simulations.

PubMed

Bottaro, Sandro; Bussi, Giovanni; Kennedy, Scott D; Turner, Douglas H; Lindorff-Larsen, Kresten

2018-05-01

RNA molecules are key players in numerous cellular processes and are characterized by a complex relationship between structure, dynamics, and function. Despite their apparent simplicity, RNA oligonucleotides are very flexible molecules, and understanding their internal dynamics is particularly challenging using experimental data alone. We show how to reconstruct the conformational ensemble of four RNA tetranucleotides by combining atomistic molecular dynamics simulations with nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy data. The goal is achieved by reweighting simulations using a maximum entropy/Bayesian approach. In this way, we overcome problems of current simulation methods, as well as in interpreting ensemble- and time-averaged experimental data. We determine the populations of different conformational states by considering several nuclear magnetic resonance parameters and point toward properties that are not captured by state-of-the-art molecular force fields. Although our approach is applied on a set of model systems, it is fully general and may be used to study the conformational dynamics of flexible biomolecules and to detect inaccuracies in molecular dynamics force fields.

Recharge signal identification based on groundwater level observations.

PubMed

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chu, Hone-Jay

2012-10-01

This study applied a method of the rotated empirical orthogonal functions to directly decompose the space-time groundwater level variations and determine the potential recharge zones by investigating the correlation between the identified groundwater signals and the observed local rainfall records. The approach is used to analyze the spatiotemporal process of piezometric heads estimated by Bayesian maximum entropy method from monthly observations of 45 wells in 1999-2007 located in the Pingtung Plain of Taiwan. From the results, the primary potential recharge area is located at the proximal fan areas where the recharge process accounts for 88% of the spatiotemporal variations of piezometric heads in the study area. The decomposition of groundwater levels associated with rainfall can provide information on the recharge process since rainfall is an important contributor to groundwater recharge in semi-arid regions. Correlation analysis shows that the identified recharge closely associates with the temporal variation of the local precipitation with a delay of 1-2 months in the study area.

The Brandeis Dice Problem and Statistical Mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Enk, Steven J.

2014-11-01

Jaynes invented the Brandeis Dice Problem as a simple illustration of the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) procedure that he had demonstrated to work so well in Statistical Mechanics. I construct here two alternative solutions to his toy problem. One, like Jaynes' solution, uses MaxEnt and yields an analog of the canonical ensemble, but at a different level of description. The other uses Bayesian updating and yields an analog of the micro-canonical ensemble. Both, unlike Jaynes' solution, yield error bars, whose operational merits I discuss. These two alternative solutions are not equivalent for the original Brandeis Dice Problem, but become so in what must, therefore, count as the analog of the thermodynamic limit, M-sided dice with M → ∞. Whereas the mathematical analogies between the dice problem and Stat Mech are quite close, there are physical properties that the former lacks but that are crucial to the workings of the latter. Stat Mech is more than just MaxEnt.

spMC: an R-package for 3D lithological reconstructions based on spatial Markov chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sartore, Luca; Fabbri, Paolo; Gaetan, Carlo

2016-09-01

The paper presents the spatial Markov Chains (spMC) R-package and a case study of subsoil simulation/prediction located in a plain site of Northeastern Italy. spMC is a quite complete collection of advanced methods for data inspection, besides spMC implements Markov Chain models to estimate experimental transition probabilities of categorical lithological data. Furthermore, simulation methods based on most known prediction methods (as indicator Kriging and CoKriging) were implemented in spMC package. Moreover, other more advanced methods are available for simulations, e.g. path methods and Bayesian procedures, that exploit the maximum entropy. Since the spMC package was developed for intensive geostatistical computations, part of the code is implemented for parallel computations via the OpenMP constructs. A final analysis of this computational efficiency compares the simulation/prediction algorithms by using different numbers of CPU cores, and considering the example data set of the case study included in the package.

A comparison of image restoration approaches applied to three-dimensional confocal and wide-field fluorescence microscopy.

PubMed

Verveer, P. J; Gemkow, M. J; Jovin, T. M

1999-01-01

We have compared different image restoration approaches for fluorescence microscopy. The most widely used algorithms were classified with a Bayesian theory according to the assumed noise model and the type of regularization imposed. We considered both Gaussian and Poisson models for the noise in combination with Tikhonov regularization, entropy regularization, Good's roughness and without regularization (maximum likelihood estimation). Simulations of fluorescence confocal imaging were used to examine the different noise models and regularization approaches using the mean squared error criterion. The assumption of a Gaussian noise model yielded only slightly higher errors than the Poisson model. Good's roughness was the best choice for the regularization. Furthermore, we compared simulated confocal and wide-field data. In general, restored confocal data are superior to restored wide-field data, but given sufficient higher signal level for the wide-field data the restoration result may rival confocal data in quality. Finally, a visual comparison of experimental confocal and wide-field data is presented.

Bayesian network modelling of upper gastrointestinal bleeding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aisha, Nazziwa; Shohaimi, Shamarina; Adam, Mohd Bakri

2013-09-01

Bayesian networks are graphical probabilistic models that represent causal and other relationships between domain variables. In the context of medical decision making, these models have been explored to help in medical diagnosis and prognosis. In this paper, we discuss the Bayesian network formalism in building medical support systems and we learn a tree augmented naive Bayes Network (TAN) from gastrointestinal bleeding data. The accuracy of the TAN in classifying the source of gastrointestinal bleeding into upper or lower source is obtained. The TAN achieves a high classification accuracy of 86% and an area under curve of 92%. A sensitivity analysis of the model shows relatively high levels of entropy reduction for color of the stool, history of gastrointestinal bleeding, consistency and the ratio of blood urea nitrogen to creatinine. The TAN facilitates the identification of the source of GIB and requires further validation.

Economics and Maximum Entropy Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenz, R. D.

2003-04-01

Price differentials, sales volume and profit can be seen as analogues of temperature difference, heat flow and work or entropy production in the climate system. One aspect in which economic systems exhibit more clarity than the climate is that the empirical and/or statistical mechanical tendency for systems to seek a maximum in production is very evident in economics, in that the profit motive is very clear. Noting the common link between 1/f noise, power laws and Self-Organized Criticality with Maximum Entropy Production, the power law fluctuations in security and commodity prices is not inconsistent with the analogy. There is an additional thermodynamic analogy, in that scarcity is valued. A commodity concentrated among a few traders is valued highly by the many who do not have it. The market therefore encourages via prices the spreading of those goods among a wider group, just as heat tends to diffuse, increasing entropy. I explore some empirical price-volume relationships of metals and meteorites in this context.

Metabolic networks evolve towards states of maximum entropy production.

PubMed

Unrean, Pornkamol; Srienc, Friedrich

2011-11-01

A metabolic network can be described by a set of elementary modes or pathways representing discrete metabolic states that support cell function. We have recently shown that in the most likely metabolic state the usage probability of individual elementary modes is distributed according to the Boltzmann distribution law while complying with the principle of maximum entropy production. To demonstrate that a metabolic network evolves towards such state we have carried out adaptive evolution experiments with Thermoanaerobacterium saccharolyticum operating with a reduced metabolic functionality based on a reduced set of elementary modes. In such reduced metabolic network metabolic fluxes can be conveniently computed from the measured metabolite secretion pattern. Over a time span of 300 generations the specific growth rate of the strain continuously increased together with a continuous increase in the rate of entropy production. We show that the rate of entropy production asymptotically approaches the maximum entropy production rate predicted from the state when the usage probability of individual elementary modes is distributed according to the Boltzmann distribution. Therefore, the outcome of evolution of a complex biological system can be predicted in highly quantitative terms using basic statistical mechanical principles. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Time dependence of Hawking radiation entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Page, Don N.

2013-09-01

If a black hole starts in a pure quantum state and evaporates completely by a unitary process, the von Neumann entropy of the Hawking radiation initially increases and then decreases back to zero when the black hole has disappeared. Here numerical results are given for an approximation to the time dependence of the radiation entropy under an assumption of fast scrambling, for large nonrotating black holes that emit essentially only photons and gravitons. The maximum of the von Neumann entropy then occurs after about 53.81% of the evaporation time, when the black hole has lost about 40.25% of its original Bekenstein-Hawking (BH) entropy (an upper bound for its von Neumann entropy) and then has a BH entropy that equals the entropy in the radiation, which is about 59.75% of the original BH entropy 4πM02, or about 7.509M02 ≈ 6.268 × 1076(M0/Msolar)2, using my 1976 calculations that the photon and graviton emission process into empty space gives about 1.4847 times the BH entropy loss of the black hole. Results are also given for black holes in initially impure states. If the black hole starts in a maximally mixed state, the von Neumann entropy of the Hawking radiation increases from zero up to a maximum of about 119.51% of the original BH entropy, or about 15.018M02 ≈ 1.254 × 1077(M0/Msolar)2, and then decreases back down to 4πM02 = 1.049 × 1077(M0/Msolar)2.

Using maximum entropy modeling to identify and prioritize red spruce forest habitat in West Virginia

Treesearch

Nathan R. Beane; James S. Rentch; Thomas M. Schuler

2013-01-01

Red spruce forests in West Virginia are found in island-like distributions at high elevations and provide essential habitat for the endangered Cheat Mountain salamander and the recently delisted Virginia northern flying squirrel. Therefore, it is important to identify restoration priorities of red spruce forests. Maximum entropy modeling was used to identify areas of...

Maximum entropy PDF projection: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baggenstoss, Paul M.

2017-06-01

We review maximum entropy (MaxEnt) PDF projection, a method with wide potential applications in statistical inference. The method constructs a sampling distribution for a high-dimensional vector x based on knowing the sampling distribution p(z) of a lower-dimensional feature z = T (x). Under mild conditions, the distribution p(x) having highest possible entropy among all distributions consistent with p(z) may be readily found. Furthermore, the MaxEnt p(x) may be sampled, making the approach useful in Monte Carlo methods. We review the theorem and present a case study in model order selection and classification for handwritten character recognition.

Stochastic modeling and control system designs of the NASA/MSFC Ground Facility for large space structures: The maximum entropy/optimal projection approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hsia, Wei-Shen

1986-01-01

In the Control Systems Division of the Systems Dynamics Laboratory of the NASA/MSFC, a Ground Facility (GF), in which the dynamics and control system concepts being considered for Large Space Structures (LSS) applications can be verified, was designed and built. One of the important aspects of the GF is to design an analytical model which will be as close to experimental data as possible so that a feasible control law can be generated. Using Hyland's Maximum Entropy/Optimal Projection Approach, a procedure was developed in which the maximum entropy principle is used for stochastic modeling and the optimal projection technique is used for a reduced-order dynamic compensator design for a high-order plant.

n-Order and maximum fuzzy similarity entropy for discrimination of signals of different complexity: Application to fetal heart rate signals.

PubMed

Zaylaa, Amira; Oudjemia, Souad; Charara, Jamal; Girault, Jean-Marc

2015-09-01

This paper presents two new concepts for discrimination of signals of different complexity. The first focused initially on solving the problem of setting entropy descriptors by varying the pattern size instead of the tolerance. This led to the search for the optimal pattern size that maximized the similarity entropy. The second paradigm was based on the n-order similarity entropy that encompasses the 1-order similarity entropy. To improve the statistical stability, n-order fuzzy similarity entropy was proposed. Fractional Brownian motion was simulated to validate the different methods proposed, and fetal heart rate signals were used to discriminate normal from abnormal fetuses. In all cases, it was found that it was possible to discriminate time series of different complexity such as fractional Brownian motion and fetal heart rate signals. The best levels of performance in terms of sensitivity (90%) and specificity (90%) were obtained with the n-order fuzzy similarity entropy. However, it was shown that the optimal pattern size and the maximum similarity measurement were related to intrinsic features of the time series. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling maximum river flow by using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheong, R. Y.; Gabda, D.

2017-09-01

Analysis of flood trends is vital since flooding threatens human living in terms of financial, environment and security. The data of annual maximum river flows in Sabah were fitted into generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) raised naturally when working with GEV distribution. However, previous researches showed that MLE provide unstable results especially in small sample size. In this study, we used different Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based on Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to estimate GEV parameters. Bayesian MCMC method is a statistical inference which studies the parameter estimation by using posterior distribution based on Bayes’ theorem. Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to overcome the high dimensional state space faced in Monte Carlo method. This approach also considers more uncertainty in parameter estimation which then presents a better prediction on maximum river flow in Sabah.

Bayesian Framework for Water Quality Model Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management

EPA Science Inventory

A formal Bayesian methodology is presented for integrated model calibration and risk-based water quality management using Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and maximum likelihood estimation (BMCML). The primary focus is on lucid integration of model calibration with risk-based wat...

Minimum and Maximum Entropy Distributions for Binary Systems with Known Means and Pairwise Correlations

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-08-21

distributions, and we discuss some applications for engineered and biological information transmission systems. Keywords: information theory; minimum...of its interpretation as a measure of the amount of information communicable by a neural system to groups of downstream neurons. Previous authors...of the maximum entropy approach. Our results also have relevance for engineered information transmission systems. We show that empirically measured

Interatomic potentials in condensed matter via the maximum-entropy principle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlsson, A. E.

1987-09-01

A general method is described for the calculation of interatomic potentials in condensed-matter systems by use of a maximum-entropy Ansatz for the interatomic correlation functions. The interatomic potentials are given explicitly in terms of statistical correlation functions involving the potential energy and the structure factor of a ``reference medium.'' Illustrations are given for Al-Cu alloys and a model transition metal.

Stochastic characteristics of different duration annual maximum rainfall and its spatial difference in China based on information entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Sang, Y. F.

2017-12-01

Mountain torrents, urban floods and other disasters caused by extreme precipitation bring great losses to the ecological environment, social and economic development, people's lives and property security. So there is of great significance to floods prevention and control by the study of its spatial distribution. Based on the annual maximum rainfall data of 60min, 6h and 24h, the paper generate long sequences following Pearson-III distribution, and then use the information entropy index to study the spatial distribution and difference of different duration. The results show that the information entropy value of annual maximum rainfall in the south region is greater than that in the north region, indicating more obvious stochastic characteristics of annual maximum rainfall in the latter. However, the spatial distribution of stochastic characteristics is different in different duration. For example, stochastic characteristics of 60min annual maximum rainfall in the Eastern Tibet is smaller than surrounding, but 6h and 24h annual maximum rainfall is larger than surrounding area. In the Haihe River Basin and the Huaihe River Basin, the stochastic characteristics of the 60min annual maximum rainfall was not significantly different from that in the surrounding area, and stochastic characteristics of 6h and 24h was smaller than that in the surrounding area. We conclude that the spatial distribution of information entropy values of annual maximum rainfall in different duration can reflect the spatial distribution of its stochastic characteristics, thus the results can be an importantly scientific basis for the flood prevention and control, agriculture, economic-social developments and urban flood control and waterlogging.

Stability of Tsallis entropy and instabilities of Rényi and normalized Tsallis entropies: a basis for q-exponential distributions.

PubMed

Abe, Sumiyoshi

2002-10-01

The q-exponential distributions, which are generalizations of the Zipf-Mandelbrot power-law distribution, are frequently encountered in complex systems at their stationary states. From the viewpoint of the principle of maximum entropy, they can apparently be derived from three different generalized entropies: the Rényi entropy, the Tsallis entropy, and the normalized Tsallis entropy. Accordingly, mere fittings of observed data by the q-exponential distributions do not lead to identification of the correct physical entropy. Here, stabilities of these entropies, i.e., their behaviors under arbitrary small deformation of a distribution, are examined. It is shown that, among the three, the Tsallis entropy is stable and can provide an entropic basis for the q-exponential distributions, whereas the others are unstable and cannot represent any experimentally observable quantities.

Time dependence of Hawking radiation entropy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Page, Don N., E-mail: profdonpage@gmail.com

2013-09-01

If a black hole starts in a pure quantum state and evaporates completely by a unitary process, the von Neumann entropy of the Hawking radiation initially increases and then decreases back to zero when the black hole has disappeared. Here numerical results are given for an approximation to the time dependence of the radiation entropy under an assumption of fast scrambling, for large nonrotating black holes that emit essentially only photons and gravitons. The maximum of the von Neumann entropy then occurs after about 53.81% of the evaporation time, when the black hole has lost about 40.25% of its originalmore » Bekenstein-Hawking (BH) entropy (an upper bound for its von Neumann entropy) and then has a BH entropy that equals the entropy in the radiation, which is about 59.75% of the original BH entropy 4πM{sub 0}{sup 2}, or about 7.509M{sub 0}{sup 2} ≈ 6.268 × 10{sup 76}(M{sub 0}/M{sub s}un){sup 2}, using my 1976 calculations that the photon and graviton emission process into empty space gives about 1.4847 times the BH entropy loss of the black hole. Results are also given for black holes in initially impure states. If the black hole starts in a maximally mixed state, the von Neumann entropy of the Hawking radiation increases from zero up to a maximum of about 119.51% of the original BH entropy, or about 15.018M{sub 0}{sup 2} ≈ 1.254 × 10{sup 77}(M{sub 0}/M{sub s}un){sup 2}, and then decreases back down to 4πM{sub 0}{sup 2} = 1.049 × 10{sup 77}(M{sub 0}/M{sub s}un){sup 2}.« less

Bistability, non-ergodicity, and inhibition in pairwise maximum-entropy models

PubMed Central

Grün, Sonja; Helias, Moritz

2017-01-01

Pairwise maximum-entropy models have been used in neuroscience to predict the activity of neuronal populations, given only the time-averaged correlations of the neuron activities. This paper provides evidence that the pairwise model, applied to experimental recordings, would produce a bimodal distribution for the population-averaged activity, and for some population sizes the second mode would peak at high activities, that experimentally would be equivalent to 90% of the neuron population active within time-windows of few milliseconds. Several problems are connected with this bimodality: 1. The presence of the high-activity mode is unrealistic in view of observed neuronal activity and on neurobiological grounds. 2. Boltzmann learning becomes non-ergodic, hence the pairwise maximum-entropy distribution cannot be found: in fact, Boltzmann learning would produce an incorrect distribution; similarly, common variants of mean-field approximations also produce an incorrect distribution. 3. The Glauber dynamics associated with the model is unrealistically bistable and cannot be used to generate realistic surrogate data. This bimodality problem is first demonstrated for an experimental dataset from 159 neurons in the motor cortex of macaque monkey. Evidence is then provided that this problem affects typical neural recordings of population sizes of a couple of hundreds or more neurons. The cause of the bimodality problem is identified as the inability of standard maximum-entropy distributions with a uniform reference measure to model neuronal inhibition. To eliminate this problem a modified maximum-entropy model is presented, which reflects a basic effect of inhibition in the form of a simple but non-uniform reference measure. This model does not lead to unrealistic bimodalities, can be found with Boltzmann learning, and has an associated Glauber dynamics which incorporates a minimal asymmetric inhibition. PMID:28968396

Combining Experiments and Simulations Using the Maximum Entropy Principle

PubMed Central

Boomsma, Wouter; Ferkinghoff-Borg, Jesper; Lindorff-Larsen, Kresten

2014-01-01

A key component of computational biology is to compare the results of computer modelling with experimental measurements. Despite substantial progress in the models and algorithms used in many areas of computational biology, such comparisons sometimes reveal that the computations are not in quantitative agreement with experimental data. The principle of maximum entropy is a general procedure for constructing probability distributions in the light of new data, making it a natural tool in cases when an initial model provides results that are at odds with experiments. The number of maximum entropy applications in our field has grown steadily in recent years, in areas as diverse as sequence analysis, structural modelling, and neurobiology. In this Perspectives article, we give a broad introduction to the method, in an attempt to encourage its further adoption. The general procedure is explained in the context of a simple example, after which we proceed with a real-world application in the field of molecular simulations, where the maximum entropy procedure has recently provided new insight. Given the limited accuracy of force fields, macromolecular simulations sometimes produce results that are at not in complete and quantitative accordance with experiments. A common solution to this problem is to explicitly ensure agreement between the two by perturbing the potential energy function towards the experimental data. So far, a general consensus for how such perturbations should be implemented has been lacking. Three very recent papers have explored this problem using the maximum entropy approach, providing both new theoretical and practical insights to the problem. We highlight each of these contributions in turn and conclude with a discussion on remaining challenges. PMID:24586124

Bistability, non-ergodicity, and inhibition in pairwise maximum-entropy models.

PubMed

Rostami, Vahid; Porta Mana, PierGianLuca; Grün, Sonja; Helias, Moritz

2017-10-01

Pairwise maximum-entropy models have been used in neuroscience to predict the activity of neuronal populations, given only the time-averaged correlations of the neuron activities. This paper provides evidence that the pairwise model, applied to experimental recordings, would produce a bimodal distribution for the population-averaged activity, and for some population sizes the second mode would peak at high activities, that experimentally would be equivalent to 90% of the neuron population active within time-windows of few milliseconds. Several problems are connected with this bimodality: 1. The presence of the high-activity mode is unrealistic in view of observed neuronal activity and on neurobiological grounds. 2. Boltzmann learning becomes non-ergodic, hence the pairwise maximum-entropy distribution cannot be found: in fact, Boltzmann learning would produce an incorrect distribution; similarly, common variants of mean-field approximations also produce an incorrect distribution. 3. The Glauber dynamics associated with the model is unrealistically bistable and cannot be used to generate realistic surrogate data. This bimodality problem is first demonstrated for an experimental dataset from 159 neurons in the motor cortex of macaque monkey. Evidence is then provided that this problem affects typical neural recordings of population sizes of a couple of hundreds or more neurons. The cause of the bimodality problem is identified as the inability of standard maximum-entropy distributions with a uniform reference measure to model neuronal inhibition. To eliminate this problem a modified maximum-entropy model is presented, which reflects a basic effect of inhibition in the form of a simple but non-uniform reference measure. This model does not lead to unrealistic bimodalities, can be found with Boltzmann learning, and has an associated Glauber dynamics which incorporates a minimal asymmetric inhibition.

[Maximum entropy model versus remote sensing-based methods for extracting Oncomelania hupensis snail habitats].

PubMed

Cong-Cong, Xia; Cheng-Fang, Lu; Si, Li; Tie-Jun, Zhang; Sui-Heng, Lin; Yi, Hu; Ying, Liu; Zhi-Jie, Zhang

2016-12-02

To explore the technique of maximum entropy model for extracting Oncomelania hupensis snail habitats in Poyang Lake zone. The information of snail habitats and related environment factors collected in Poyang Lake zone were integrated to set up the maximum entropy based species model and generate snail habitats distribution map. Two Landsat 7 ETM+ remote sensing images of both wet and drought seasons in Poyang Lake zone were obtained, where the two indices of modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were applied to extract snail habitats. The ROC curve, sensitivities and specificities were applied to assess their results. Furthermore, the importance of the variables for snail habitats was analyzed by using Jackknife approach. The evaluation results showed that the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of testing data by the remote sensing-based method was only 0.56, and the sensitivity and specificity were 0.23 and 0.89 respectively. Nevertheless, those indices above-mentioned of maximum entropy model were 0.876, 0.89 and 0.74 respectively. The main concentration of snail habitats in Poyang Lake zone covered the northeast part of Yongxiu County, northwest of Yugan County, southwest of Poyang County and middle of Xinjian County, and the elevation was the most important environment variable affecting the distribution of snails, and the next was land surface temperature (LST). The maximum entropy model is more reliable and accurate than the remote sensing-based method for the sake of extracting snail habitats, which has certain guiding significance for the relevant departments to carry out measures to prevent and control high-risk snail habitats.

Cosmic equilibration: A holographic no-hair theorem from the generalized second law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carroll, Sean M.; Chatwin-Davies, Aidan

2018-02-01

In a wide class of cosmological models, a positive cosmological constant drives cosmological evolution toward an asymptotically de Sitter phase. Here we connect this behavior to the increase of entropy over time, based on the idea that de Sitter spacetime is a maximum-entropy state. We prove a cosmic no-hair theorem for Robertson-Walker and Bianchi I spacetimes that admit a Q-screen ("quantum" holographic screen) with certain entropic properties: If generalized entropy, in the sense of the cosmological version of the generalized second law conjectured by Bousso and Engelhardt, increases up to a finite maximum value along the screen, then the spacetime is asymptotically de Sitter in the future. Moreover, the limiting value of generalized entropy coincides with the de Sitter horizon entropy. We do not use the Einstein field equations in our proof, nor do we assume the existence of a positive cosmological constant. As such, asymptotic relaxation to a de Sitter phase can, in a precise sense, be thought of as cosmological equilibration.

Pareto versus lognormal: A maximum entropy test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bee, Marco; Riccaboni, Massimo; Schiavo, Stefano

2011-08-01

It is commonly found that distributions that seem to be lognormal over a broad range change to a power-law (Pareto) distribution for the last few percentiles. The distributions of many physical, natural, and social events (earthquake size, species abundance, income and wealth, as well as file, city, and firm sizes) display this structure. We present a test for the occurrence of power-law tails in statistical distributions based on maximum entropy. This methodology allows one to identify the true data-generating processes even in the case when it is neither lognormal nor Pareto. The maximum entropy approach is then compared with other widely used methods and applied to different levels of aggregation of complex systems. Our results provide support for the theory that distributions with lognormal body and Pareto tail can be generated as mixtures of lognormally distributed units.

Maximum Entropy for the International Division of Labor.

PubMed

Lei, Hongmei; Chen, Ying; Li, Ruiqi; He, Deli; Zhang, Jiang

2015-01-01

As a result of the international division of labor, the trade value distribution on different products substantiated by international trade flows can be regarded as one country's strategy for competition. According to the empirical data of trade flows, countries may spend a large fraction of export values on ubiquitous and competitive products. Meanwhile, countries may also diversify their exports share on different types of products to reduce the risk. In this paper, we report that the export share distribution curves can be derived by maximizing the entropy of shares on different products under the product's complexity constraint once the international market structure (the country-product bipartite network) is given. Therefore, a maximum entropy model provides a good fit to empirical data. The empirical data is consistent with maximum entropy subject to a constraint on the expected value of the product complexity for each country. One country's strategy is mainly determined by the types of products this country can export. In addition, our model is able to fit the empirical export share distribution curves of nearly every country very well by tuning only one parameter.

Maximum Entropy for the International Division of Labor

PubMed Central

Lei, Hongmei; Chen, Ying; Li, Ruiqi; He, Deli; Zhang, Jiang

2015-01-01

As a result of the international division of labor, the trade value distribution on different products substantiated by international trade flows can be regarded as one country’s strategy for competition. According to the empirical data of trade flows, countries may spend a large fraction of export values on ubiquitous and competitive products. Meanwhile, countries may also diversify their exports share on different types of products to reduce the risk. In this paper, we report that the export share distribution curves can be derived by maximizing the entropy of shares on different products under the product’s complexity constraint once the international market structure (the country-product bipartite network) is given. Therefore, a maximum entropy model provides a good fit to empirical data. The empirical data is consistent with maximum entropy subject to a constraint on the expected value of the product complexity for each country. One country’s strategy is mainly determined by the types of products this country can export. In addition, our model is able to fit the empirical export share distribution curves of nearly every country very well by tuning only one parameter. PMID:26172052

Maximum entropy production in environmental and ecological systems.

PubMed

Kleidon, Axel; Malhi, Yadvinder; Cox, Peter M

2010-05-12

The coupled biosphere-atmosphere system entails a vast range of processes at different scales, from ecosystem exchange fluxes of energy, water and carbon to the processes that drive global biogeochemical cycles, atmospheric composition and, ultimately, the planetary energy balance. These processes are generally complex with numerous interactions and feedbacks, and they are irreversible in their nature, thereby producing entropy. The proposed principle of maximum entropy production (MEP), based on statistical mechanics and information theory, states that thermodynamic processes far from thermodynamic equilibrium will adapt to steady states at which they dissipate energy and produce entropy at the maximum possible rate. This issue focuses on the latest development of applications of MEP to the biosphere-atmosphere system including aspects of the atmospheric circulation, the role of clouds, hydrology, vegetation effects, ecosystem exchange of energy and mass, biogeochemical interactions and the Gaia hypothesis. The examples shown in this special issue demonstrate the potential of MEP to contribute to improved understanding and modelling of the biosphere and the wider Earth system, and also explore limitations and constraints to the application of the MEP principle.

Propane spectral resolution enhancement by the maximum entropy method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonavito, N. L.; Stewart, K. P.; Hurley, E. J.; Yeh, K. C.; Inguva, R.

1990-01-01

The Burg algorithm for maximum entropy power spectral density estimation is applied to a time series of data obtained from a Michelson interferometer and compared with a standard FFT estimate for resolution capability. The propane transmittance spectrum was estimated by use of the FFT with a 2 to the 18th data sample interferogram, giving a maximum unapodized resolution of 0.06/cm. This estimate was then interpolated by zero filling an additional 2 to the 18th points, and the final resolution was taken to be 0.06/cm. Comparison of the maximum entropy method (MEM) estimate with the FFT was made over a 45/cm region of the spectrum for several increasing record lengths of interferogram data beginning at 2 to the 10th. It is found that over this region the MEM estimate with 2 to the 16th data samples is in close agreement with the FFT estimate using 2 to the 18th samples.

Thermodynamic resource theories, non-commutativity and maximum entropy principles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lostaglio, Matteo; Jennings, David; Rudolph, Terry

2017-04-01

We discuss some features of thermodynamics in the presence of multiple conserved quantities. We prove a generalisation of Landauer principle illustrating tradeoffs between the erasure costs paid in different ‘currencies’. We then show how the maximum entropy and complete passivity approaches give different answers in the presence of multiple observables. We discuss how this seems to prevent current resource theories from fully capturing thermodynamic aspects of non-commutativity.

Using the Maximum Entropy Principle as a Unifying Theory Characterization and Sampling of Multi-Scaling Processes in Hydrometeorology

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-20

evapotranspiration (ET) over oceans may be significantly lower than previously thought. The MEP model parameterized turbulent transfer coefficients...fluxes, ocean freshwater fluxes, regional crop yield among others. An on-going study suggests that the global annual evapotranspiration (ET) over...Bras, Jingfeng Wang. A model of evapotranspiration based on the theory of maximum entropy production, Water Resources Research, (03 2011): 0. doi

Hydrodynamic equations for electrons in graphene obtained from the maximum entropy principle

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barletti, Luigi, E-mail: luigi.barletti@unifi.it

2014-08-15

The maximum entropy principle is applied to the formal derivation of isothermal, Euler-like equations for semiclassical fermions (electrons and holes) in graphene. After proving general mathematical properties of the equations so obtained, their asymptotic form corresponding to significant physical regimes is investigated. In particular, the diffusive regime, the Maxwell-Boltzmann regime (high temperature), the collimation regime and the degenerate gas limit (vanishing temperature) are considered.

Maximum Entropy/Optimal Projection (MEOP) control design synthesis: Optimal quantification of the major design tradeoffs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hyland, D. C.; Bernstein, D. S.

1987-01-01

The underlying philosophy and motivation of the optimal projection/maximum entropy (OP/ME) stochastic modeling and reduced control design methodology for high order systems with parameter uncertainties are discussed. The OP/ME design equations for reduced-order dynamic compensation including the effect of parameter uncertainties are reviewed. The application of the methodology to several Large Space Structures (LSS) problems of representative complexity is illustrated.

Using Tranformation Group Priors and Maximum Relative Entropy for Bayesian Glaciological Inversions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arthern, R. J.; Hindmarsh, R. C. A.; Williams, C. R.

2014-12-01

One of the key advances that has allowed better simulations of the large ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica has been the use of inverse methods. These have allowed poorly known parameters such as the basal drag coefficient and ice viscosity to be constrained using a wide variety of satellite observations. Inverse methods used by glaciologists have broadly followed one of two related approaches. The first is minimization of a cost function that describes the misfit to the observations, often accompanied by some kind of explicit or implicit regularization that promotes smallness or smoothness in the inverted parameters. The second approach is a probabilistic framework that makes use of Bayes' theorem to update prior assumptions about the probability of parameters, making use of data with known error estimates. Both approaches have much in common and questions of regularization often map onto implicit choices of prior probabilities that are made explicit in the Bayesian framework. In both approaches questions can arise that seem to demand subjective input. What should the functional form of the cost function be if there are alternatives? What kind of regularization should be applied, and how much? How should the prior probability distribution for a parameter such as basal slipperiness be specified when we know so little about the details of the subglacial environment? Here we consider some approaches that have been used to address these questions and discuss ways that probabilistic prior information used for regularizing glaciological inversions might be specified with greater objectivity.

The Bayesian reconstruction of the in-medium heavy quark potential from lattice QCD and its stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burnier, Yannis; Kaczmarek, Olaf; Rothkopf, Alexander

2016-01-01

We report recent results of a non-perturbative determination of the static heavy-quark potential in quenched and dynamical lattice QCD at finite temperature. The real and imaginary part of this complex quantity are extracted from the spectral function of Wilson line correlators in Coulomb gauge. To obtain spectral information from Euclidean time numerical data, our study relies on a novel Bayesian prescription that differs from the Maximum Entropy Method. We perform simulations on quenched 323 × Nτ (β = 7.0, ξ = 3.5) lattices with Nτ = 24, …, 96, which cover 839MeV ≥ T ≥ 210MeV. To investigate the potential in a quark-gluon plasma with light u,d and s quarks we utilize Nf = 2 + 1 ASQTAD lattices with ml = ms/20 by the HotQCD collaboration, giving access to temperatures between 286MeV ≥ T ≥ 148MeV. The real part of the potential exhibits a clean transition from a linear, confining behavior in the hadronic phase to a Debye screened form above deconfinement. Interestingly its values lie close to the color singlet free energies in Coulomb gauge at all temperatures. We estimate the imaginary part on quenched lattices and find that it is of the same order of magnitude as in hard-thermal loop perturbation theory. From among all the systematic checks carried out in our study, we discuss explicitly the dependence of the result on the default model and the number of datapoints.

Bayesian logistic regression approaches to predict incorrect DRG assignment.

PubMed

Suleiman, Mani; Demirhan, Haydar; Boyd, Leanne; Girosi, Federico; Aksakalli, Vural

2018-05-07

Episodes of care involving similar diagnoses and treatments and requiring similar levels of resource utilisation are grouped to the same Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG). In jurisdictions which implement DRG based payment systems, DRGs are a major determinant of funding for inpatient care. Hence, service providers often dedicate auditing staff to the task of checking that episodes have been coded to the correct DRG. The use of statistical models to estimate an episode's probability of DRG error can significantly improve the efficiency of clinical coding audits. This study implements Bayesian logistic regression models with weakly informative prior distributions to estimate the likelihood that episodes require a DRG revision, comparing these models with each other and to classical maximum likelihood estimates. All Bayesian approaches had more stable model parameters than maximum likelihood. The best performing Bayesian model improved overall classification per- formance by 6% compared to maximum likelihood, with a 34% gain compared to random classification, respectively. We found that the original DRG, coder and the day of coding all have a significant effect on the likelihood of DRG error. Use of Bayesian approaches has improved model parameter stability and classification accuracy. This method has already lead to improved audit efficiency in an operational capacity.

Quantifying and minimizing entropy generation in AMTEC cells

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hendricks, T.J.; Huang, C.

1997-12-31

Entropy generation in an AMTEC cell represents inherent power loss to the AMTEC cell. Minimizing cell entropy generation directly maximizes cell power generation and efficiency. An internal project is on-going at AMPS to identify, quantify and minimize entropy generation mechanisms within an AMTEC cell, with the goal of determining cost-effective design approaches for maximizing AMTEC cell power generation. Various entropy generation mechanisms have been identified and quantified. The project has investigated several cell design techniques in a solar-driven AMTEC system to minimize cell entropy generation and produce maximum power cell designs. In many cases, various sources of entropy generation aremore » interrelated such that minimizing entropy generation requires cell and system design optimization. Some of the tradeoffs between various entropy generation mechanisms are quantified and explained and their implications on cell design are discussed. The relationship between AMTEC cell power and efficiency and entropy generation is presented and discussed.« less

Moisture sorption isotherms and thermodynamic properties of bovine leather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fakhfakh, Rihab; Mihoubi, Daoued; Kechaou, Nabil

2018-04-01

This study was aimed at the determination of bovine leather moisture sorption characteristics using a static gravimetric method at 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70 °C. The curves exhibit type II behaviour according to the BET classification. The sorption isotherms fitting by seven equations shows that GAB model is able to reproduce the equilibrium moisture content evolution with water activity for moisture range varying from 0.02 to 0.83 kg/kg d.b (0.9898 < R2 < 0.999). The sorption isotherms exhibit hysteresis effect. Additionally, sorption isotherms data were used to determine the thermodynamic properties such as isosteric heat of sorption, sorption entropy, spreading pressure, net integral enthalpy and entropy. Net isosteric heat of sorption and differential entropy were evaluated through direct use of moisture isotherms by applying the Clausius-Clapeyron equation and used to investigate the enthalpy-entropy compensation theory. Both sorption enthalpy and entropy for desorption increase to a maximum with increasing moisture content, and then decrease sharply with rising moisture content. Adsorption enthalpy decreases with increasing moisture content. Whereas, adsorption entropy increases smoothly with increasing moisture content to a maximum of 6.29 J/K.mol. Spreading pressure increases with rising water activity. The net integral enthalpy seemed to decrease and then increase to become asymptotic. The net integral entropy decreased with moisture content increase.

The effects of segmentation algorithms on the measurement of 18F-FDG PET texture parameters in non-small cell lung cancer.

PubMed

Bashir, Usman; Azad, Gurdip; Siddique, Muhammad Musib; Dhillon, Saana; Patel, Nikheel; Bassett, Paul; Landau, David; Goh, Vicky; Cook, Gary

2017-12-01

Measures of tumour heterogeneity derived from 18-fluoro-2-deoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography ( 18 F-FDG PET/CT) scans are increasingly reported as potential biomarkers of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) for classification and prognostication. Several segmentation algorithms have been used to delineate tumours, but their effects on the reproducibility and predictive and prognostic capability of derived parameters have not been evaluated. The purpose of our study was to retrospectively compare various segmentation algorithms in terms of inter-observer reproducibility and prognostic capability of texture parameters derived from non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) 18 F-FDG PET/CT images. Fifty three NSCLC patients (mean age 65.8 years; 31 males) underwent pre-chemoradiotherapy 18 F-FDG PET/CT scans. Three readers segmented tumours using freehand (FH), 40% of maximum intensity threshold (40P), and fuzzy locally adaptive Bayesian (FLAB) algorithms. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to measure the inter-observer variability of the texture features derived by the three segmentation algorithms. Univariate cox regression was used on 12 commonly reported texture features to predict overall survival (OS) for each segmentation algorithm. Model quality was compared across segmentation algorithms using Akaike information criterion (AIC). 40P was the most reproducible algorithm (median ICC 0.9; interquartile range [IQR] 0.85-0.92) compared with FLAB (median ICC 0.83; IQR 0.77-0.86) and FH (median ICC 0.77; IQR 0.7-0.85). On univariate cox regression analysis, 40P found 2 out of 12 variables, i.e. first-order entropy and grey-level co-occurence matrix (GLCM) entropy, to be significantly associated with OS; FH and FLAB found 1, i.e., first-order entropy. For each tested variable, survival models for all three segmentation algorithms were of similar quality, exhibiting comparable AIC values with overlapping 95% CIs. Compared with both FLAB and FH, segmentation with 40P yields superior inter-observer reproducibility of texture features. Survival models generated by all three segmentation algorithms are of at least equivalent utility. Our findings suggest that a segmentation algorithm using a 40% of maximum threshold is acceptable for texture analysis of 18 F-FDG PET in NSCLC.

Bayesian Regression of Thermodynamic Models of Redox Active Materials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnston, Katherine

Finding a suitable functional redox material is a critical challenge to achieving scalable, economically viable technologies for storing concentrated solar energy in the form of a defected oxide. Demonstrating e ectiveness for thermal storage or solar fuel is largely accomplished by using a thermodynamic model derived from experimental data. The purpose of this project is to test the accuracy of our regression model on representative data sets. Determining the accuracy of the model includes parameter tting the model to the data, comparing the model using di erent numbers of param- eters, and analyzing the entropy and enthalpy calculated from themore » model. Three data sets were considered in this project: two demonstrating materials for solar fuels by wa- ter splitting and the other of a material for thermal storage. Using Bayesian Inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), parameter estimation was preformed on the three data sets. Good results were achieved, except some there was some deviations on the edges of the data input ranges. The evidence values were then calculated in a variety of ways and used to compare models with di erent number of parameters. It was believed that at least one of the parameters was unnecessary and comparing evidence values demonstrated that the parameter was need on one data set and not signi cantly helpful on another. The entropy was calculated by taking the derivative in one variable and integrating over another. and its uncertainty was also calculated by evaluating the entropy over multiple MCMC samples. Afterwards, all the parts were written up as a tutorial for the Uncertainty Quanti cation Toolkit (UQTk).« less

Entropy jump across an inviscid shock wave

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salas, Manuel D.; Iollo, Angelo

1995-01-01

The shock jump conditions for the Euler equations in their primitive form are derived by using generalized functions. The shock profiles for specific volume, speed, and pressure are shown to be the same, however density has a different shock profile. Careful study of the equations that govern the entropy shows that the inviscid entropy profile has a local maximum within the shock layer. We demonstrate that because of this phenomenon, the entropy, propagation equation cannot be used as a conservation law.

An improved wavelet neural network medical image segmentation algorithm with combined maximum entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Xiaoqian; Tao, Jinxu; Ye, Zhongfu; Qiu, Bensheng; Xu, Jinzhang

2018-05-01

In order to solve the problem of medical image segmentation, a wavelet neural network medical image segmentation algorithm based on combined maximum entropy criterion is proposed. Firstly, we use bee colony algorithm to optimize the network parameters of wavelet neural network, get the parameters of network structure, initial weights and threshold values, and so on, we can quickly converge to higher precision when training, and avoid to falling into relative extremum; then the optimal number of iterations is obtained by calculating the maximum entropy of the segmented image, so as to achieve the automatic and accurate segmentation effect. Medical image segmentation experiments show that the proposed algorithm can reduce sample training time effectively and improve convergence precision, and segmentation effect is more accurate and effective than traditional BP neural network (back propagation neural network : a multilayer feed forward neural network which trained according to the error backward propagation algorithm.

Maximum entropy deconvolution of the optical jet of 3C 273

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, I. N.; Ford, H. C.; Hui, X.

1989-01-01

The technique of maximum entropy image restoration is applied to the problem of deconvolving the point spread function from a deep, high-quality V band image of the optical jet of 3C 273. The resulting maximum entropy image has an approximate spatial resolution of 0.6 arcsec and has been used to study the morphology of the optical jet. Four regularly-spaced optical knots are clearly evident in the data, together with an optical 'extension' at each end of the optical jet. The jet oscillates around its center of gravity, and the spatial scale of the oscillations is very similar to the spacing between the optical knots. The jet is marginally resolved in the transverse direction and has an asymmetric profile perpendicular to the jet axis. The distribution of V band flux along the length of the jet, and accurate astrometry of the optical knot positions are presented.

Quantum entropy and uncertainty for two-mode squeezed, coherent and intelligent spin states

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aragone, C.; Mundarain, D.

1993-01-01

We compute the quantum entropy for monomode and two-mode systems set in squeezed states. Thereafter, the quantum entropy is also calculated for angular momentum algebra when the system is either in a coherent or in an intelligent spin state. These values are compared with the corresponding values of the respective uncertainties. In general, quantum entropies and uncertainties have the same minimum and maximum points. However, for coherent and intelligent spin states, it is found that some minima for the quantum entropy turn out to be uncertainty maxima. We feel that the quantum entropy we use provides the right answer, since it is given in an essentially unique way.

Entropy and climate. I - ERBE observations of the entropy production of the earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephens, G. L.; O'Brien, D. M.

1993-01-01

An approximate method for estimating the global distributions of the entropy fluxes flowing through the upper boundary of the climate system is introduced, and an estimate of the entropy exchange between the earth and space and the entropy production of the planet is provided. Entropy fluxes calculated from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment measurements show how the long-wave entropy flux densities dominate the total entropy fluxes at all latitudes compared with the entropy flux densities associated with reflected sunlight, although the short-wave flux densities are important in the context of clear sky-cloudy sky net entropy flux differences. It is suggested that the entropy production of the planet is both constant for the 36 months of data considered and very near its maximum possible value. The mean value of this production is 0.68 x 10 exp 15 W/K, and the amplitude of the annual cycle is approximately 1 to 2 percent of this value.

Multilevel modeling of single-case data: A comparison of maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation.

PubMed

Moeyaert, Mariola; Rindskopf, David; Onghena, Patrick; Van den Noortgate, Wim

2017-12-01

The focus of this article is to describe Bayesian estimation, including construction of prior distributions, and to compare parameter recovery under the Bayesian framework (using weakly informative priors) and the maximum likelihood (ML) framework in the context of multilevel modeling of single-case experimental data. Bayesian estimation results were found similar to ML estimation results in terms of the treatment effect estimates, regardless of the functional form and degree of information included in the prior specification in the Bayesian framework. In terms of the variance component estimates, both the ML and Bayesian estimation procedures result in biased and less precise variance estimates when the number of participants is small (i.e., 3). By increasing the number of participants to 5 or 7, the relative bias is close to 5% and more precise estimates are obtained for all approaches, except for the inverse-Wishart prior using the identity matrix. When a more informative prior was added, more precise estimates for the fixed effects and random effects were obtained, even when only 3 participants were included. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Mixed memory, (non) Hurst effect, and maximum entropy of rainfall in the tropical Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poveda, Germán

2011-02-01

Diverse linear and nonlinear statistical parameters of rainfall under aggregation in time and the kind of temporal memory are investigated. Data sets from the Andes of Colombia at different resolutions (15 min and 1-h), and record lengths (21 months and 8-40 years) are used. A mixture of two timescales is found in the autocorrelation and autoinformation functions, with short-term memory holding for time lags less than 15-30 min, and long-term memory onwards. Consistently, rainfall variance exhibits different temporal scaling regimes separated at 15-30 min and 24 h. Tests for the Hurst effect evidence the frailty of the R/ S approach in discerning the kind of memory in high resolution rainfall, whereas rigorous statistical tests for short-memory processes do reject the existence of the Hurst effect. Rainfall information entropy grows as a power law of aggregation time, S( T) ˜ Tβ with < β> = 0.51, up to a timescale, TMaxEnt (70-202 h), at which entropy saturates, with β = 0 onwards. Maximum entropy is reached through a dynamic Generalized Pareto distribution, consistently with the maximum information-entropy principle for heavy-tailed random variables, and with its asymptotically infinitely divisible property. The dynamics towards the limit distribution is quantified. Tsallis q-entropies also exhibit power laws with T, such that Sq( T) ˜ Tβ( q) , with β( q) ⩽ 0 for q ⩽ 0, and β( q) ≃ 0.5 for q ⩾ 1. No clear patterns are found in the geographic distribution within and among the statistical parameters studied, confirming the strong variability of tropical Andean rainfall.

A hierarchical Bayesian approach to adaptive vision testing: A case study with the contrast sensitivity function.

PubMed

Gu, Hairong; Kim, Woojae; Hou, Fang; Lesmes, Luis Andres; Pitt, Mark A; Lu, Zhong-Lin; Myung, Jay I

2016-01-01

Measurement efficiency is of concern when a large number of observations are required to obtain reliable estimates for parametric models of vision. The standard entropy-based Bayesian adaptive testing procedures addressed the issue by selecting the most informative stimulus in sequential experimental trials. Noninformative, diffuse priors were commonly used in those tests. Hierarchical adaptive design optimization (HADO; Kim, Pitt, Lu, Steyvers, & Myung, 2014) further improves the efficiency of the standard Bayesian adaptive testing procedures by constructing an informative prior using data from observers who have already participated in the experiment. The present study represents an empirical validation of HADO in estimating the human contrast sensitivity function. The results show that HADO significantly improves the accuracy and precision of parameter estimates, and therefore requires many fewer observations to obtain reliable inference about contrast sensitivity, compared to the method of quick contrast sensitivity function (Lesmes, Lu, Baek, & Albright, 2010), which uses the standard Bayesian procedure. The improvement with HADO was maintained even when the prior was constructed from heterogeneous populations or a relatively small number of observers. These results of this case study support the conclusion that HADO can be used in Bayesian adaptive testing by replacing noninformative, diffuse priors with statistically justified informative priors without introducing unwanted bias.

A hierarchical Bayesian approach to adaptive vision testing: A case study with the contrast sensitivity function

PubMed Central

Gu, Hairong; Kim, Woojae; Hou, Fang; Lesmes, Luis Andres; Pitt, Mark A.; Lu, Zhong-Lin; Myung, Jay I.

2016-01-01

Measurement efficiency is of concern when a large number of observations are required to obtain reliable estimates for parametric models of vision. The standard entropy-based Bayesian adaptive testing procedures addressed the issue by selecting the most informative stimulus in sequential experimental trials. Noninformative, diffuse priors were commonly used in those tests. Hierarchical adaptive design optimization (HADO; Kim, Pitt, Lu, Steyvers, & Myung, 2014) further improves the efficiency of the standard Bayesian adaptive testing procedures by constructing an informative prior using data from observers who have already participated in the experiment. The present study represents an empirical validation of HADO in estimating the human contrast sensitivity function. The results show that HADO significantly improves the accuracy and precision of parameter estimates, and therefore requires many fewer observations to obtain reliable inference about contrast sensitivity, compared to the method of quick contrast sensitivity function (Lesmes, Lu, Baek, & Albright, 2010), which uses the standard Bayesian procedure. The improvement with HADO was maintained even when the prior was constructed from heterogeneous populations or a relatively small number of observers. These results of this case study support the conclusion that HADO can be used in Bayesian adaptive testing by replacing noninformative, diffuse priors with statistically justified informative priors without introducing unwanted bias. PMID:27105061

Competition between Homophily and Information Entropy Maximization in Social Networks

PubMed Central

Zhao, Jichang; Liang, Xiao; Xu, Ke

2015-01-01

In social networks, it is conventionally thought that two individuals with more overlapped friends tend to establish a new friendship, which could be stated as homophily breeding new connections. While the recent hypothesis of maximum information entropy is presented as the possible origin of effective navigation in small-world networks. We find there exists a competition between information entropy maximization and homophily in local structure through both theoretical and experimental analysis. This competition suggests that a newly built relationship between two individuals with more common friends would lead to less information entropy gain for them. We demonstrate that in the evolution of the social network, both of the two assumptions coexist. The rule of maximum information entropy produces weak ties in the network, while the law of homophily makes the network highly clustered locally and the individuals would obtain strong and trust ties. A toy model is also presented to demonstrate the competition and evaluate the roles of different rules in the evolution of real networks. Our findings could shed light on the social network modeling from a new perspective. PMID:26334994

Nonequilibrium thermodynamics and maximum entropy production in the Earth system: applications and implications.

PubMed

Kleidon, Axel

2009-06-01

The Earth system is maintained in a unique state far from thermodynamic equilibrium, as, for instance, reflected in the high concentration of reactive oxygen in the atmosphere. The myriad of processes that transform energy, that result in the motion of mass in the atmosphere, in oceans, and on land, processes that drive the global water, carbon, and other biogeochemical cycles, all have in common that they are irreversible in their nature. Entropy production is a general consequence of these processes and measures their degree of irreversibility. The proposed principle of maximum entropy production (MEP) states that systems are driven to steady states in which they produce entropy at the maximum possible rate given the prevailing constraints. In this review, the basics of nonequilibrium thermodynamics are described, as well as how these apply to Earth system processes. Applications of the MEP principle are discussed, ranging from the strength of the atmospheric circulation, the hydrological cycle, and biogeochemical cycles to the role that life plays in these processes. Nonequilibrium thermodynamics and the MEP principle have potentially wide-ranging implications for our understanding of Earth system functioning, how it has evolved in the past, and why it is habitable. Entropy production allows us to quantify an objective direction of Earth system change (closer to vs further away from thermodynamic equilibrium, or, equivalently, towards a state of MEP). When a maximum in entropy production is reached, MEP implies that the Earth system reacts to perturbations primarily with negative feedbacks. In conclusion, this nonequilibrium thermodynamic view of the Earth system shows great promise to establish a holistic description of the Earth as one system. This perspective is likely to allow us to better understand and predict its function as one entity, how it has evolved in the past, and how it is modified by human activities in the future.

Applications of the principle of maximum entropy: from physics to ecology.

PubMed

Banavar, Jayanth R; Maritan, Amos; Volkov, Igor

2010-02-17

There are numerous situations in physics and other disciplines which can be described at different levels of detail in terms of probability distributions. Such descriptions arise either intrinsically as in quantum mechanics, or because of the vast amount of details necessary for a complete description as, for example, in Brownian motion and in many-body systems. We show that an application of the principle of maximum entropy for estimating the underlying probability distribution can depend on the variables used for describing the system. The choice of characterization of the system carries with it implicit assumptions about fundamental attributes such as whether the system is classical or quantum mechanical or equivalently whether the individuals are distinguishable or indistinguishable. We show that the correct procedure entails the maximization of the relative entropy subject to known constraints and, additionally, requires knowledge of the behavior of the system in the absence of these constraints. We present an application of the principle of maximum entropy to understanding species diversity in ecology and introduce a new statistical ensemble corresponding to the distribution of a variable population of individuals into a set of species not defined a priori.

Entropy Methods For Univariate Distributions in Decision Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbas, Ali E.

2003-03-01

One of the most important steps in decision analysis practice is the elicitation of the decision-maker's belief about an uncertainty of interest in the form of a representative probability distribution. However, the probability elicitation process is a task that involves many cognitive and motivational biases. Alternatively, the decision-maker may provide other information about the distribution of interest, such as its moments, and the maximum entropy method can be used to obtain a full distribution subject to the given moment constraints. In practice however, decision makers cannot readily provide moments for the distribution, and are much more comfortable providing information about the fractiles of the distribution of interest or bounds on its cumulative probabilities. In this paper we present a graphical method to determine the maximum entropy distribution between upper and lower probability bounds and provide an interpretation for the shape of the maximum entropy distribution subject to fractile constraints, (FMED). We also discuss the problems with the FMED in that it is discontinuous and flat over each fractile interval. We present a heuristic approximation to a distribution if in addition to its fractiles, we also know it is continuous and work through full examples to illustrate the approach.

Bayesian image reconstruction for improving detection performance of muon tomography.

PubMed

Wang, Guobao; Schultz, Larry J; Qi, Jinyi

2009-05-01

Muon tomography is a novel technology that is being developed for detecting high-Z materials in vehicles or cargo containers. Maximum likelihood methods have been developed for reconstructing the scattering density image from muon measurements. However, the instability of maximum likelihood estimation often results in noisy images and low detectability of high-Z targets. In this paper, we propose using regularization to improve the image quality of muon tomography. We formulate the muon reconstruction problem in a Bayesian framework by introducing a prior distribution on scattering density images. An iterative shrinkage algorithm is derived to maximize the log posterior distribution. At each iteration, the algorithm obtains the maximum a posteriori update by shrinking an unregularized maximum likelihood update. Inverse quadratic shrinkage functions are derived for generalized Laplacian priors and inverse cubic shrinkage functions are derived for generalized Gaussian priors. Receiver operating characteristic studies using simulated data demonstrate that the Bayesian reconstruction can greatly improve the detection performance of muon tomography.

Bayesian inference based on dual generalized order statistics from the exponentiated Weibull model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Sobhi, Mashail M.

2015-02-01

Bayesian estimation for the two parameters and the reliability function of the exponentiated Weibull model are obtained based on dual generalized order statistics (DGOS). Also, Bayesian prediction bounds for future DGOS from exponentiated Weibull model are obtained. The symmetric and asymmetric loss functions are considered for Bayesian computations. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used for computing the Bayes estimates and prediction bounds. The results have been specialized to the lower record values. Comparisons are made between Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimators via Monte Carlo simulation.

Inference of reaction rate parameters based on summary statistics from experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khalil, Mohammad; Chowdhary, Kamaljit Singh; Safta, Cosmin

Here, we present the results of an application of Bayesian inference and maximum entropy methods for the estimation of the joint probability density for the Arrhenius rate para meters of the rate coefficient of the H 2/O 2-mechanism chain branching reaction H + O 2 → OH + O. Available published data is in the form of summary statistics in terms of nominal values and error bars of the rate coefficient of this reaction at a number of temperature values obtained from shock-tube experiments. Our approach relies on generating data, in this case OH concentration profiles, consistent with the givenmore » summary statistics, using Approximate Bayesian Computation methods and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure. The approach permits the forward propagation of parametric uncertainty through the computational model in a manner that is consistent with the published statistics. A consensus joint posterior on the parameters is obtained by pooling the posterior parameter densities given each consistent data set. To expedite this process, we construct efficient surrogates for the OH concentration using a combination of Pad'e and polynomial approximants. These surrogate models adequately represent forward model observables and their dependence on input parameters and are computationally efficient to allow their use in the Bayesian inference procedure. We also utilize Gauss-Hermite quadrature with Gaussian proposal probability density functions for moment computation resulting in orders of magnitude speedup in data likelihood evaluation. Despite the strong non-linearity in the model, the consistent data sets all res ult in nearly Gaussian conditional parameter probability density functions. The technique also accounts for nuisance parameters in the form of Arrhenius parameters of other rate coefficients with prescribed uncertainty. The resulting pooled parameter probability density function is propagated through stoichiometric hydrogen-air auto-ignition computations to illustrate the need to account for correlation among the Arrhenius rate parameters of one reaction and across rate parameters of different reactions.« less

Inference of reaction rate parameters based on summary statistics from experiments

DOE PAGES

Khalil, Mohammad; Chowdhary, Kamaljit Singh; Safta, Cosmin; ...

2016-10-15

Here, we present the results of an application of Bayesian inference and maximum entropy methods for the estimation of the joint probability density for the Arrhenius rate para meters of the rate coefficient of the H 2/O 2-mechanism chain branching reaction H + O 2 → OH + O. Available published data is in the form of summary statistics in terms of nominal values and error bars of the rate coefficient of this reaction at a number of temperature values obtained from shock-tube experiments. Our approach relies on generating data, in this case OH concentration profiles, consistent with the givenmore » summary statistics, using Approximate Bayesian Computation methods and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure. The approach permits the forward propagation of parametric uncertainty through the computational model in a manner that is consistent with the published statistics. A consensus joint posterior on the parameters is obtained by pooling the posterior parameter densities given each consistent data set. To expedite this process, we construct efficient surrogates for the OH concentration using a combination of Pad'e and polynomial approximants. These surrogate models adequately represent forward model observables and their dependence on input parameters and are computationally efficient to allow their use in the Bayesian inference procedure. We also utilize Gauss-Hermite quadrature with Gaussian proposal probability density functions for moment computation resulting in orders of magnitude speedup in data likelihood evaluation. Despite the strong non-linearity in the model, the consistent data sets all res ult in nearly Gaussian conditional parameter probability density functions. The technique also accounts for nuisance parameters in the form of Arrhenius parameters of other rate coefficients with prescribed uncertainty. The resulting pooled parameter probability density function is propagated through stoichiometric hydrogen-air auto-ignition computations to illustrate the need to account for correlation among the Arrhenius rate parameters of one reaction and across rate parameters of different reactions.« less

A Bayesian trans-dimensional approach for the fusion of multiple geophysical datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

JafarGandomi, Arash; Binley, Andrew

2013-09-01

We propose a Bayesian fusion approach to integrate multiple geophysical datasets with different coverage and sensitivity. The fusion strategy is based on the capability of various geophysical methods to provide enough resolution to identify either subsurface material parameters or subsurface structure, or both. We focus on electrical resistivity as the target material parameter and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), electromagnetic induction (EMI), and ground penetrating radar (GPR) as the set of geophysical methods. However, extending the approach to different sets of geophysical parameters and methods is straightforward. Different geophysical datasets are entered into a trans-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) search-based joint inversion algorithm. The trans-dimensional property of the McMC algorithm allows dynamic parameterisation of the model space, which in turn helps to avoid bias of the post-inversion results towards a particular model. Given that we are attempting to develop an approach that has practical potential, we discretize the subsurface into an array of one-dimensional earth-models. Accordingly, the ERT data that are collected by using two-dimensional acquisition geometry are re-casted to a set of equivalent vertical electric soundings. Different data are inverted either individually or jointly to estimate one-dimensional subsurface models at discrete locations. We use Shannon's information measure to quantify the information obtained from the inversion of different combinations of geophysical datasets. Information from multiple methods is brought together via introducing joint likelihood function and/or constraining the prior information. A Bayesian maximum entropy approach is used for spatial fusion of spatially dispersed estimated one-dimensional models and mapping of the target parameter. We illustrate the approach with a synthetic dataset and then apply it to a field dataset. We show that the proposed fusion strategy is successful not only in enhancing the subsurface information but also as a survey design tool to identify the appropriate combination of the geophysical tools and show whether application of an individual method for further investigation of a specific site is beneficial.

Prediction-error variance in Bayesian model updating: a comparative study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asadollahi, Parisa; Li, Jian; Huang, Yong

2017-04-01

In Bayesian model updating, the likelihood function is commonly formulated by stochastic embedding in which the maximum information entropy probability model of prediction error variances plays an important role and it is Gaussian distribution subject to the first two moments as constraints. The selection of prediction error variances can be formulated as a model class selection problem, which automatically involves a trade-off between the average data-fit of the model class and the information it extracts from the data. Therefore, it is critical for the robustness in the updating of the structural model especially in the presence of modeling errors. To date, three ways of considering prediction error variances have been seem in the literature: 1) setting constant values empirically, 2) estimating them based on the goodness-of-fit of the measured data, and 3) updating them as uncertain parameters by applying Bayes' Theorem at the model class level. In this paper, the effect of different strategies to deal with the prediction error variances on the model updating performance is investigated explicitly. A six-story shear building model with six uncertain stiffness parameters is employed as an illustrative example. Transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to draw samples of the posterior probability density function of the structure model parameters as well as the uncertain prediction variances. The different levels of modeling uncertainty and complexity are modeled through three FE models, including a true model, a model with more complexity, and a model with modeling error. Bayesian updating is performed for the three FE models considering the three aforementioned treatments of the prediction error variances. The effect of number of measurements on the model updating performance is also examined in the study. The results are compared based on model class assessment and indicate that updating the prediction error variances as uncertain parameters at the model class level produces more robust results especially when the number of measurement is small.

Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt violation and the entropy-concurrence plane

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Derkacz, Lukasz; Jakobczyk, Lech

2005-10-15

We characterize violation of Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt (CHSH) inequalities for mixed two-qubit states by their mixedness and entanglement. The class of states that have maximum degree of CHSH violation for a given linear entropy is also constructed.

Large scale air pollution estimation method combining land use regression and chemical transport modeling in a geostatistical framework.

PubMed

Akita, Yasuyuki; Baldasano, Jose M; Beelen, Rob; Cirach, Marta; de Hoogh, Kees; Hoek, Gerard; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark; Serre, Marc L; de Nazelle, Audrey

2014-04-15

In recognition that intraurban exposure gradients may be as large as between-city variations, recent air pollution epidemiologic studies have become increasingly interested in capturing within-city exposure gradients. In addition, because of the rapidly accumulating health data, recent studies also need to handle large study populations distributed over large geographic domains. Even though several modeling approaches have been introduced, a consistent modeling framework capturing within-city exposure variability and applicable to large geographic domains is still missing. To address these needs, we proposed a modeling framework based on the Bayesian Maximum Entropy method that integrates monitoring data and outputs from existing air quality models based on Land Use Regression (LUR) and Chemical Transport Models (CTM). The framework was applied to estimate the yearly average NO2 concentrations over the region of Catalunya in Spain. By jointly accounting for the global scale variability in the concentration from the output of CTM and the intraurban scale variability through LUR model output, the proposed framework outperformed more conventional approaches.

Multi-perspective analysis and spatiotemporal mapping of air pollution monitoring data.

PubMed

Kolovos, Alexander; Skupin, André; Jerrett, Michael; Christakos, George

2010-09-01

Space-time data analysis and assimilation techniques in atmospheric sciences typically consider input from monitoring measurements. The input is often processed in a manner that acknowledges characteristics of the measurements (e.g., underlying patterns, fluctuation features) under conditions of uncertainty; it also leads to the derivation of secondary information that serves study-oriented goals, and provides input to space-time prediction techniques. We present a novel approach that blends a rigorous space-time prediction model (Bayesian maximum entropy, BME) with a cognitively informed visualization of high-dimensional data (spatialization). The combined BME and spatialization approach (BME-S) is used to study monthly averaged NO2 and mean annual SO4 measurements in California over the 15-year period 1988-2002. Using the original scattered measurements of these two pollutants BME generates spatiotemporal predictions on a regular grid across the state. Subsequently, the prediction network undergoes the spatialization transformation into a lower-dimensional geometric representation, aimed at revealing patterns and relationships that exist within the input data. The proposed BME-S provides a powerful spatiotemporal framework to study a variety of air pollution data sources.

An in situ USAXS-SAXS-WAXS study of precipitate size distribution evolution in a model Ni-based alloy.

PubMed

Andrews, Ross N; Serio, Joseph; Muralidharan, Govindarajan; Ilavsky, Jan

2017-06-01

Intermetallic γ' precipitates typically strengthen nickel-based superalloys. The shape, size and spatial distribution of strengthening precipitates critically influence alloy strength, while their temporal evolution characteristics determine the high-temperature alloy stability. Combined ultra-small-, small- and wide-angle X-ray scattering (USAXS-SAXS-WAXS) analysis can be used to evaluate the temporal evolution of an alloy's precipitate size distribution (PSD) and phase structure during in situ heat treatment. Analysis of PSDs from USAXS-SAXS data employs either least-squares fitting of a preordained PSD model or a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach, the latter avoiding a priori definition of a functional form of the PSD. However, strong low- q scattering from grain boundaries and/or structure factor effects inhibit MaxEnt analysis of typical alloys. This work describes the extension of Bayesian-MaxEnt analysis methods to data exhibiting structure factor effects and low- q power law slopes and demonstrates their use in an in situ study of precipitate size evolution during heat treatment of a model Ni-Al-Si alloy.

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Pandemic SARS Spread in Mainland China.

PubMed

Cao, Chunxiang; Chen, Wei; Zheng, Sheng; Zhao, Jian; Wang, Jinfeng; Cao, Wuchun

2016-01-01

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is one of the most severe emerging infectious diseases of the 21st century so far. SARS caused a pandemic that spread throughout mainland China for 7 months, infecting 5318 persons in 194 administrative regions. Using detailed mainland China epidemiological data, we study spatiotemporal aspects of this person-to-person contagious disease and simulate its spatiotemporal transmission dynamics via the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method. The BME reveals that SARS outbreaks show autocorrelation within certain spatial and temporal distances. We use BME to fit a theoretical covariance model that has a sine hole spatial component and exponential temporal component and obtain the weights of geographical and temporal autocorrelation factors. Using the covariance model, SARS dynamics were estimated and simulated under the most probable conditions. Our study suggests that SARS transmission varies in its epidemiological characteristics and SARS outbreak distributions exhibit palpable clusters on both spatial and temporal scales. In addition, the BME modelling demonstrates that SARS transmission features are affected by spatial heterogeneity, so we analyze potential causes. This may benefit epidemiological control of pandemic infectious diseases.

Stochastic reconstructions of spectral functions: Application to lattice QCD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, H.-T.; Kaczmarek, O.; Mukherjee, Swagato; Ohno, H.; Shu, H.-T.

2018-05-01

We present a detailed study of the applications of two stochastic approaches, stochastic optimization method (SOM) and stochastic analytical inference (SAI), to extract spectral functions from Euclidean correlation functions. SOM has the advantage that it does not require prior information. On the other hand, SAI is a more generalized method based on Bayesian inference. Under mean field approximation SAI reduces to the often-used maximum entropy method (MEM) and for a specific choice of the prior SAI becomes equivalent to SOM. To test the applicability of these two stochastic methods to lattice QCD, firstly, we apply these methods to various reasonably chosen model correlation functions and present detailed comparisons of the reconstructed spectral functions obtained from SOM, SAI and MEM. Next, we present similar studies for charmonia correlation functions obtained from lattice QCD computations using clover-improved Wilson fermions on large, fine, isotropic lattices at 0.75 and 1.5 Tc, Tc being the deconfinement transition temperature of a pure gluon plasma. We find that SAI and SOM give consistent results to MEM at these two temperatures.

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Pandemic SARS Spread in Mainland China

PubMed Central

Cao, Chunxiang; Zheng, Sheng; Zhao, Jian; Wang, Jinfeng; Cao, Wuchun

2016-01-01

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is one of the most severe emerging infectious diseases of the 21st century so far. SARS caused a pandemic that spread throughout mainland China for 7 months, infecting 5318 persons in 194 administrative regions. Using detailed mainland China epidemiological data, we study spatiotemporal aspects of this person-to-person contagious disease and simulate its spatiotemporal transmission dynamics via the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method. The BME reveals that SARS outbreaks show autocorrelation within certain spatial and temporal distances. We use BME to fit a theoretical covariance model that has a sine hole spatial component and exponential temporal component and obtain the weights of geographical and temporal autocorrelation factors. Using the covariance model, SARS dynamics were estimated and simulated under the most probable conditions. Our study suggests that SARS transmission varies in its epidemiological characteristics and SARS outbreak distributions exhibit palpable clusters on both spatial and temporal scales. In addition, the BME modelling demonstrates that SARS transmission features are affected by spatial heterogeneity, so we analyze potential causes. This may benefit epidemiological control of pandemic infectious diseases. PMID:27597972

Investigating the collision energy dependence of η /s in the beam energy scan at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider using Bayesian statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auvinen, Jussi; Bernhard, Jonah E.; Bass, Steffen A.; Karpenko, Iurii

2018-04-01

We determine the probability distributions of the shear viscosity over the entropy density ratio η /s in the quark-gluon plasma formed in Au + Au collisions at √{sN N}=19.6 ,39 , and 62.4 GeV , using Bayesian inference and Gaussian process emulators for a model-to-data statistical analysis that probes the full input parameter space of a transport + viscous hydrodynamics hybrid model. We find the most likely value of η /s to be larger at smaller √{sN N}, although the uncertainties still allow for a constant value between 0.10 and 0.15 for the investigated collision energy range.

Is Bayesian Estimation Proper for Estimating the Individual's Ability? Research Report 80-3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Samejima, Fumiko

The effect of prior information in Bayesian estimation is considered, mainly from the standpoint of objective testing. In the estimation of a parameter belonging to an individual, the prior information is, in most cases, the density function of the population to which the individual belongs. Bayesian estimation was compared with maximum likelihood…

REMARKS ON THE MAXIMUM ENTROPY METHOD APPLIED TO FINITE TEMPERATURE LATTICE QCD.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

UMEDA, T.; MATSUFURU, H.

2005-07-25

We make remarks on the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) for studies of the spectral function of hadronic correlators in finite temperature lattice QCD. We discuss the virtues and subtlety of MEM in the cases that one does not have enough number of data points such as at finite temperature. Taking these points into account, we suggest several tests which one should examine to keep the reliability for the results, and also apply them using mock and lattice QCD data.

Congruence between distribution modelling and phylogeographical analyses reveals Quaternary survival of a toadflax species (Linaria elegans) in oceanic climate areas of a mountain ring range.

PubMed

Fernández-Mazuecos, Mario; Vargas, Pablo

2013-06-01

· The role of Quaternary climatic shifts in shaping the distribution of Linaria elegans, an Iberian annual plant, was investigated using species distribution modelling and molecular phylogeographical analyses. Three hypotheses are proposed to explain the Quaternary history of its mountain ring range. · The distribution of L. elegans was modelled using the maximum entropy method and projected to the last interglacial and to the last glacial maximum (LGM) using two different paleoclimatic models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC). Two nuclear and three plastid DNA regions were sequenced for 24 populations (119 individuals sampled). Bayesian phylogenetic, phylogeographical, dating and coalescent-based population genetic analyses were conducted. · Molecular analyses indicated the existence of northern and southern glacial refugia and supported two routes of post-glacial recolonization. These results were consistent with the LGM distribution as inferred under the CCSM paleoclimatic model (but not under the MIROC model). Isolation between two major refugia was dated back to the Riss or Mindel glaciations, > 100 kyr before present (bp). · The Atlantic distribution of inferred refugia suggests that the oceanic (buffered)-continental (harsh) gradient may have played a key and previously unrecognized role in determining Quaternary distribution shifts of Mediterranean plants. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

It is not the entropy you produce, rather, how you produce it

PubMed Central

Volk, Tyler; Pauluis, Olivier

2010-01-01

The principle of maximum entropy production (MEP) seeks to better understand a large variety of the Earth's environmental and ecological systems by postulating that processes far from thermodynamic equilibrium will ‘adapt to steady states at which they dissipate energy and produce entropy at the maximum possible rate’. Our aim in this ‘outside view’, invited by Axel Kleidon, is to focus on what we think is an outstanding challenge for MEP and for irreversible thermodynamics in general: making specific predictions about the relative contribution of individual processes to entropy production. Using studies that compared entropy production in the atmosphere of a dry versus humid Earth, we show that two systems might have the same entropy production rate but very different internal dynamics of dissipation. Using the results of several of the papers in this special issue and a thought experiment, we show that components of life-containing systems can evolve to either lower or raise the entropy production rate. Our analysis makes explicit fundamental questions for MEP that should be brought into focus: can MEP predict not just the overall state of entropy production of a system but also the details of the sub-systems of dissipaters within the system? Which fluxes of the system are those that are most likely to be maximized? How it is possible for MEP theory to be so domain-neutral that it can claim to apply equally to both purely physical–chemical systems and also systems governed by the ‘laws’ of biological evolution? We conclude that the principle of MEP needs to take on the issue of exactly how entropy is produced. PMID:20368249

Perspective: Maximum caliber is a general variational principle for dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixit, Purushottam D.; Wagoner, Jason; Weistuch, Corey; Pressé, Steve; Ghosh, Kingshuk; Dill, Ken A.

2018-01-01

We review here Maximum Caliber (Max Cal), a general variational principle for inferring distributions of paths in dynamical processes and networks. Max Cal is to dynamical trajectories what the principle of maximum entropy is to equilibrium states or stationary populations. In Max Cal, you maximize a path entropy over all possible pathways, subject to dynamical constraints, in order to predict relative path weights. Many well-known relationships of non-equilibrium statistical physics—such as the Green-Kubo fluctuation-dissipation relations, Onsager's reciprocal relations, and Prigogine's minimum entropy production—are limited to near-equilibrium processes. Max Cal is more general. While it can readily derive these results under those limits, Max Cal is also applicable far from equilibrium. We give examples of Max Cal as a method of inference about trajectory distributions from limited data, finding reaction coordinates in bio-molecular simulations, and modeling the complex dynamics of non-thermal systems such as gene regulatory networks or the collective firing of neurons. We also survey its basis in principle and some limitations.

Perspective: Maximum caliber is a general variational principle for dynamical systems.

PubMed

Dixit, Purushottam D; Wagoner, Jason; Weistuch, Corey; Pressé, Steve; Ghosh, Kingshuk; Dill, Ken A

2018-01-07

We review here Maximum Caliber (Max Cal), a general variational principle for inferring distributions of paths in dynamical processes and networks. Max Cal is to dynamical trajectories what the principle of maximum entropy is to equilibrium states or stationary populations. In Max Cal, you maximize a path entropy over all possible pathways, subject to dynamical constraints, in order to predict relative path weights. Many well-known relationships of non-equilibrium statistical physics-such as the Green-Kubo fluctuation-dissipation relations, Onsager's reciprocal relations, and Prigogine's minimum entropy production-are limited to near-equilibrium processes. Max Cal is more general. While it can readily derive these results under those limits, Max Cal is also applicable far from equilibrium. We give examples of Max Cal as a method of inference about trajectory distributions from limited data, finding reaction coordinates in bio-molecular simulations, and modeling the complex dynamics of non-thermal systems such as gene regulatory networks or the collective firing of neurons. We also survey its basis in principle and some limitations.

Development and application of the maximum entropy method and other spectral estimation techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, W. R.

1980-09-01

This summary report is a collection of four separate progress reports prepared under three contracts, which are all sponsored by the Office of Naval Research in Arlington, Virginia. This report contains the results of investigations into the application of the maximum entropy method (MEM), a high resolution, frequency and wavenumber estimation technique. The report also contains a description of two, new, stable, high resolution spectral estimation techniques that is provided in the final report section. Many examples of wavenumber spectral patterns for all investigated techniques are included throughout the report. The maximum entropy method is also known as the maximum entropy spectral analysis (MESA) technique, and both names are used in the report. Many MEM wavenumber spectral patterns are demonstrated using both simulated and measured radar signal and noise data. Methods for obtaining stable MEM wavenumber spectra are discussed, broadband signal detection using the MEM prediction error transform (PET) is discussed, and Doppler radar narrowband signal detection is demonstrated using the MEM technique. It is also shown that MEM cannot be applied to randomly sampled data. The two new, stable, high resolution, spectral estimation techniques discussed in the final report section, are named the Wiener-King and the Fourier spectral estimation techniques. The two new techniques have a similar derivation based upon the Wiener prediction filter, but the two techniques are otherwise quite different. Further development of the techniques and measurement of the technique spectral characteristics is recommended for subsequent investigation.

Molecular extended thermodynamics of rarefied polyatomic gases and wave velocities for increasing number of moments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arima, Takashi, E-mail: tks@stat.nitech.ac.jp; Mentrelli, Andrea, E-mail: andrea.mentrelli@unibo.it; Ruggeri, Tommaso, E-mail: tommaso.ruggeri@unibo.it

Molecular extended thermodynamics of rarefied polyatomic gases is characterized by two hierarchies of equations for moments of a suitable distribution function in which the internal degrees of freedom of a molecule is taken into account. On the basis of physical relevance the truncation orders of the two hierarchies are proven to be not independent on each other, and the closure procedures based on the maximum entropy principle (MEP) and on the entropy principle (EP) are proven to be equivalent. The characteristic velocities of the emerging hyperbolic system of differential equations are compared to those obtained for monatomic gases and themore » lower bound estimate for the maximum equilibrium characteristic velocity established for monatomic gases (characterized by only one hierarchy for moments with truncation order of moments N) by Boillat and Ruggeri (1997) (λ{sub (N)}{sup E,max})/(c{sub 0}) ⩾√(6/5 (N−1/2 )),(c{sub 0}=√(5/3 k/m T)) is proven to hold also for rarefied polyatomic gases independently from the degrees of freedom of a molecule. -- Highlights: •Molecular extended thermodynamics of rarefied polyatomic gases is studied. •The relation between two hierarchies of equations for moments is derived. •The equivalence of maximum entropy principle and entropy principle is proven. •The characteristic velocities are compared to those of monatomic gases. •The lower bound of the maximum characteristic velocity is estimated.« less

Quantum Rényi relative entropies affirm universality of thermodynamics.

PubMed

Misra, Avijit; Singh, Uttam; Bera, Manabendra Nath; Rajagopal, A K

2015-10-01

We formulate a complete theory of quantum thermodynamics in the Rényi entropic formalism exploiting the Rényi relative entropies, starting from the maximum entropy principle. In establishing the first and second laws of quantum thermodynamics, we have correctly identified accessible work and heat exchange in both equilibrium and nonequilibrium cases. The free energy (internal energy minus temperature times entropy) remains unaltered, when all the entities entering this relation are suitably defined. Exploiting Rényi relative entropies we have shown that this "form invariance" holds even beyond equilibrium and has profound operational significance in isothermal process. These results reduce to the Gibbs-von Neumann results when the Rényi entropic parameter α approaches 1. Moreover, it is shown that the universality of the Carnot statement of the second law is the consequence of the form invariance of the free energy, which is in turn the consequence of maximum entropy principle. Further, the Clausius inequality, which is the precursor to the Carnot statement, is also shown to hold based on the data processing inequalities for the traditional and sandwiched Rényi relative entropies. Thus, we find that the thermodynamics of nonequilibrium state and its deviation from equilibrium together determine the thermodynamic laws. This is another important manifestation of the concepts of information theory in thermodynamics when they are extended to the quantum realm. Our work is a substantial step towards formulating a complete theory of quantum thermodynamics and corresponding resource theory.

Low Streamflow Forcasting using Minimum Relative Entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, H.; Singh, V. P.

2013-12-01

Minimum relative entropy spectral analysis is derived in this study, and applied to forecast streamflow time series. Proposed method extends the autocorrelation in the manner that the relative entropy of underlying process is minimized so that time series data can be forecasted. Different prior estimation, such as uniform, exponential and Gaussian assumption, is taken to estimate the spectral density depending on the autocorrelation structure. Seasonal and nonseasonal low streamflow series obtained from Colorado River (Texas) under draught condition is successfully forecasted using proposed method. Minimum relative entropy determines spectral of low streamflow series with higher resolution than conventional method. Forecasted streamflow is compared to the prediction using Burg's maximum entropy spectral analysis (MESA) and Configurational entropy. The advantage and disadvantage of each method in forecasting low streamflow is discussed.

Energy conservation and maximal entropy production in enzyme reactions.

PubMed

Dobovišek, Andrej; Vitas, Marko; Brumen, Milan; Fajmut, Aleš

2017-08-01

A procedure for maximization of the density of entropy production in a single stationary two-step enzyme reaction is developed. Under the constraints of mass conservation, fixed equilibrium constant of a reaction and fixed products of forward and backward enzyme rate constants the existence of maximum in the density of entropy production is demonstrated. In the state with maximal density of entropy production the optimal enzyme rate constants, the stationary concentrations of the substrate and the product, the stationary product yield as well as the stationary reaction flux are calculated. The test, whether these calculated values of the reaction parameters are consistent with their corresponding measured values, is performed for the enzyme Glucose Isomerase. It is found that calculated and measured rate constants agree within an order of magnitude, whereas the calculated reaction flux and the product yield differ from their corresponding measured values for less than 20 % and 5 %, respectively. This indicates that the enzyme Glucose Isomerase, considered in a non-equilibrium stationary state, as found in experiments using the continuous stirred tank reactors, possibly operates close to the state with the maximum in the density of entropy production. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Shock heating of the solar wind plasma

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whang, Y. C.; Liu, Shaoliang; Burlaga, L. F.

1990-01-01

The role played by shocks in heating solar-wind plasma is investigated using data on 413 shocks which were identified from the plasma and magnetic-field data collected between 1973 and 1982 by Pioneer and Voyager spacecraft. It is found that the average shock strength increased with the heliocentric distance outside 1 AU, reaching a maximum near 5 AU, after which the shock strength decreased with the distance; the entropy of the solar wind protons also reached a maximum at 5 AU. An MHD simulation model in which shock heating is the only heating mechanism available was used to calculate the entropy changes for the November 1977 event. The calculated entropy agreed well with the value calculated from observational data, suggesting that shocks are chiefly responsible for heating solar wind plasma between 1 and 15 AU.

Entropy maximization under the constraints on the generalized Gini index and its application in modeling income distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khosravi Tanak, A.; Mohtashami Borzadaran, G. R.; Ahmadi, J.

2015-11-01

In economics and social sciences, the inequality measures such as Gini index, Pietra index etc., are commonly used to measure the statistical dispersion. There is a generalization of Gini index which includes it as special case. In this paper, we use principle of maximum entropy to approximate the model of income distribution with a given mean and generalized Gini index. Many distributions have been used as descriptive models for the distribution of income. The most widely known of these models are the generalized beta of second kind and its subclass distributions. The obtained maximum entropy distributions are fitted to the US family total money income in 2009, 2011 and 2013 and their relative performances with respect to generalized beta of second kind family are compared.

A Maximum Entropy Method for Particle Filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eyink, Gregory L.; Kim, Sangil

2006-06-01

Standard ensemble or particle filtering schemes do not properly represent states of low priori probability when the number of available samples is too small, as is often the case in practical applications. We introduce here a set of parametric resampling methods to solve this problem. Motivated by a general H-theorem for relative entropy, we construct parametric models for the filter distributions as maximum-entropy/minimum-information models consistent with moments of the particle ensemble. When the prior distributions are modeled as mixtures of Gaussians, our method naturally generalizes the ensemble Kalman filter to systems with highly non-Gaussian statistics. We apply the new particle filters presented here to two simple test cases: a one-dimensional diffusion process in a double-well potential and the three-dimensional chaotic dynamical system of Lorenz.

Maximum entropy and equations of state for random cellular structures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rivier, N.

Random, space-filling cellular structures (biological tissues, metallurgical grain aggregates, foams, etc.) are investigated. Maximum entropy inference under a few constraints yields structural equations of state, relating the size of cells to their topological shape. These relations are known empirically as Lewis's law in Botany, or Desch's relation in Metallurgy. Here, the functional form of the constraints is now known as a priori, and one takes advantage of this arbitrariness to increase the entropy further. The resulting structural equations of state are independent of priors, they are measurable experimentally and constitute therefore a direct test for the applicability of MaxEnt inferencemore » (given that the structure is in statistical equilibrium, a fact which can be tested by another simple relation (Aboav's law)). 23 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.« less

Use of mutual information to decrease entropy: Implications for the second law of thermodynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lloyd, S.

1989-05-15

Several theorems on the mechanics of gathering information are proved, and the possibility of violating the second law of thermodynamics by obtaining information is discussed in light of these theorems. Maxwell's demon can lower the entropy of his surroundings by an amount equal to the difference between the maximum entropy of his recording device and its initial entropy, without generating a compensating entropy increase. A demon with human-scale recording devices can reduce the entropy of a gas by a negligible amount only, but the proof of the demon's impracticability leaves open the possibility that systems highly correlated with their environmentmore » can reduce the environment's entropy by a substantial amount without increasing entropy elsewhere. In the event that a boundary condition for the universe requires it to be in a state of low entropy when small, the correlations induced between different particle modes during the expansion phase allow the modes to behave like Maxwell's demons during the contracting phase, reducing the entropy of the universe to a low value.« less

An implementation of the maximum-caliber principle by replica-averaged time-resolved restrained simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capelli, Riccardo; Tiana, Guido; Camilloni, Carlo

2018-05-01

Inferential methods can be used to integrate experimental informations and molecular simulations. The maximum entropy principle provides a framework for using equilibrium experimental data, and it has been shown that replica-averaged simulations, restrained using a static potential, are a practical and powerful implementation of such a principle. Here we show that replica-averaged simulations restrained using a time-dependent potential are equivalent to the principle of maximum caliber, the dynamic version of the principle of maximum entropy, and thus may allow us to integrate time-resolved data in molecular dynamics simulations. We provide an analytical proof of the equivalence as well as a computational validation making use of simple models and synthetic data. Some limitations and possible solutions are also discussed.

An implementation of the maximum-caliber principle by replica-averaged time-resolved restrained simulations.

PubMed

Capelli, Riccardo; Tiana, Guido; Camilloni, Carlo

2018-05-14

Inferential methods can be used to integrate experimental informations and molecular simulations. The maximum entropy principle provides a framework for using equilibrium experimental data, and it has been shown that replica-averaged simulations, restrained using a static potential, are a practical and powerful implementation of such a principle. Here we show that replica-averaged simulations restrained using a time-dependent potential are equivalent to the principle of maximum caliber, the dynamic version of the principle of maximum entropy, and thus may allow us to integrate time-resolved data in molecular dynamics simulations. We provide an analytical proof of the equivalence as well as a computational validation making use of simple models and synthetic data. Some limitations and possible solutions are also discussed.

Exact Maximum-Entropy Estimation with Feynman Diagrams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Netser Zernik, Amitai; Schlank, Tomer M.; Tessler, Ran J.

2018-02-01

A longstanding open problem in statistics is finding an explicit expression for the probability measure which maximizes entropy with respect to given constraints. In this paper a solution to this problem is found, using perturbative Feynman calculus. The explicit expression is given as a sum over weighted trees.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Naghavi, S. Shahab; Emery, Antoine A.; Hansen, Heine A.

Previous studies have shown that a large solid-state entropy of reduction increases the thermodynamic efficiency of metal oxides, such as ceria, for two-step thermochemical water splitting cycles. In this context, the configurational entropy arising from oxygen off-stoichiometry in the oxide, has been the focus of most previous work. Here we report a different source of entropy, the onsite electronic configurational entropy, arising from coupling between orbital and spin angular momenta in lanthanide f orbitals. We find that onsite electronic configurational entropy is sizable in all lanthanides, and reaches a maximum value of ≈4.7 k B per oxygen vacancy for Cemore » 4+/Ce 3+ reduction. This unique and large positive entropy source in ceria explains its excellent performance for high-temperature catalytic redox reactions such as water splitting. Our calculations also show that terbium dioxide has a high electronic entropy and thus could also be a potential candidate for solar thermochemical reactions.« less

Nonequilibrium Entropy in a Shock

DOE PAGES

Margolin, Len G.

2017-07-19

In a classic paper, Morduchow and Libby use an analytic solution for the profile of a Navier–Stokes shock to show that the equilibrium thermodynamic entropy has a maximum inside the shock. There is no general nonequilibrium thermodynamic formulation of entropy; the extension of equilibrium theory to nonequililbrium processes is usually made through the assumption of local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE). However, gas kinetic theory provides a perfectly general formulation of a nonequilibrium entropy in terms of the probability distribution function (PDF) solutions of the Boltzmann equation. In this paper I will evaluate the Boltzmann entropy for the PDF that underlies themore » Navier–Stokes equations and also for the PDF of the Mott–Smith shock solution. I will show that both monotonically increase in the shock. As a result, I will propose a new nonequilibrium thermodynamic entropy and show that it is also monotone and closely approximates the Boltzmann entropy.« less

Nonequilibrium Entropy in a Shock

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Margolin, Len G.

In a classic paper, Morduchow and Libby use an analytic solution for the profile of a Navier–Stokes shock to show that the equilibrium thermodynamic entropy has a maximum inside the shock. There is no general nonequilibrium thermodynamic formulation of entropy; the extension of equilibrium theory to nonequililbrium processes is usually made through the assumption of local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE). However, gas kinetic theory provides a perfectly general formulation of a nonequilibrium entropy in terms of the probability distribution function (PDF) solutions of the Boltzmann equation. In this paper I will evaluate the Boltzmann entropy for the PDF that underlies themore » Navier–Stokes equations and also for the PDF of the Mott–Smith shock solution. I will show that both monotonically increase in the shock. As a result, I will propose a new nonequilibrium thermodynamic entropy and show that it is also monotone and closely approximates the Boltzmann entropy.« less

Collinear Latent Variables in Multilevel Confirmatory Factor Analysis: A Comparison of Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Estimations.

PubMed

Can, Seda; van de Schoot, Rens; Hox, Joop

2015-06-01

Because variables may be correlated in the social and behavioral sciences, multicollinearity might be problematic. This study investigates the effect of collinearity manipulated in within and between levels of a two-level confirmatory factor analysis by Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, the influence of the size of the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and estimation method; maximum likelihood estimation with robust chi-squares and standard errors and Bayesian estimation, on the convergence rate are investigated. The other variables of interest were rate of inadmissible solutions and the relative parameter and standard error bias on the between level. The results showed that inadmissible solutions were obtained when there was between level collinearity and the estimation method was maximum likelihood. In the within level multicollinearity condition, all of the solutions were admissible but the bias values were higher compared with the between level collinearity condition. Bayesian estimation appeared to be robust in obtaining admissible parameters but the relative bias was higher than for maximum likelihood estimation. Finally, as expected, high ICC produced less biased results compared to medium ICC conditions.

Respiration-Averaged CT for Attenuation Correction of PET Images – Impact on PET Texture Features in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients

PubMed Central

Cheng, Nai-Ming; Fang, Yu-Hua Dean; Tsan, Din-Li

2016-01-01

Purpose We compared attenuation correction of PET images with helical CT (PET/HCT) and respiration-averaged CT (PET/ACT) in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with the goal of investigating the impact of respiration-averaged CT on 18F FDG PET texture parameters. Materials and Methods A total of 56 patients were enrolled. Tumors were segmented on pretreatment PET images using the adaptive threshold. Twelve different texture parameters were computed: standard uptake value (SUV) entropy, uniformity, entropy, dissimilarity, homogeneity, coarseness, busyness, contrast, complexity, grey-level nonuniformity, zone-size nonuniformity, and high grey-level large zone emphasis. Comparisons of PET/HCT and PET/ACT were performed using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests, intraclass correlation coefficients, and Bland-Altman analysis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves as well as univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify the parameters significantly associated with disease-specific survival (DSS). A fixed threshold at 45% of the maximum SUV (T45) was used for validation. Results SUV maximum and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) were significantly higher in PET/ACT. However, texture parameters obtained with PET/ACT and PET/HCT showed a high degree of agreement. The lowest levels of variation between the two modalities were observed for SUV entropy (9.7%) and entropy (9.8%). SUV entropy, entropy, and coarseness from both PET/ACT and PET/HCT were significantly associated with DSS. Validation analyses using T45 confirmed the usefulness of SUV entropy and entropy in both PET/HCT and PET/ACT for the prediction of DSS, but only coarseness from PET/ACT achieved the statistical significance threshold. Conclusions Our results indicate that 1) texture parameters from PET/ACT are clinically useful in the prediction of survival in NSCLC patients and 2) SUV entropy and entropy are robust to attenuation correction methods. PMID:26930211

Understanding Short-Term Nonmigrating Tidal Variability in the Ionospheric Dynamo Region from SABER Using Information Theory and Bayesian Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumari, K.; Oberheide, J.

2017-12-01

Nonmigrating tidal diagnostics of SABER temperature observations in the ionospheric dynamo region reveal a large amount of variability on time-scales of a few days to weeks. In this paper, we discuss the physical reasons for the observed short-term tidal variability using a novel approach based on Information theory and Bayesian statistics. We diagnose short-term tidal variability as a function of season, QBO, ENSO, and solar cycle and other drivers using time dependent probability density functions, Shannon entropy and Kullback-Leibler divergence. The statistical significance of the approach and its predictive capability is exemplified using SABER tidal diagnostics with emphasis on the responses to the QBO and solar cycle. Implications for F-region plasma density will be discussed.

Maximum Entropy Production As a Framework for Understanding How Living Systems Evolve, Organize and Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallino, J. J.; Algar, C. K.; Huber, J. A.; Fernandez-Gonzalez, N.

2014-12-01

The maximum entropy production (MEP) principle holds that non equilibrium systems with sufficient degrees of freedom will likely be found in a state that maximizes entropy production or, analogously, maximizes potential energy destruction rate. The theory does not distinguish between abiotic or biotic systems; however, we will show that systems that can coordinate function over time and/or space can potentially dissipate more free energy than purely Markovian processes (such as fire or a rock rolling down a hill) that only maximize instantaneous entropy production. Biological systems have the ability to store useful information acquired via evolution and curated by natural selection in genomic sequences that allow them to execute temporal strategies and coordinate function over space. For example, circadian rhythms allow phototrophs to "predict" that sun light will return and can orchestrate metabolic machinery appropriately before sunrise, which not only gives them a competitive advantage, but also increases the total entropy production rate compared to systems that lack such anticipatory control. Similarly, coordination over space, such a quorum sensing in microbial biofilms, can increase acquisition of spatially distributed resources and free energy and thereby enhance entropy production. In this talk we will develop a modeling framework to describe microbial biogeochemistry based on the MEP conjecture constrained by information and resource availability. Results from model simulations will be compared to laboratory experiments to demonstrate the usefulness of the MEP approach.

Giant onsite electronic entropy enhances the performance of ceria for water splitting

DOE PAGES

Naghavi, S. Shahab; Emery, Antoine A.; Hansen, Heine A.; ...

2017-08-18

Previous studies have shown that a large solid-state entropy of reduction increases the thermodynamic efficiency of metal oxides, such as ceria, for two-step thermochemical water splitting cycles. In this context, the configurational entropy arising from oxygen off-stoichiometry in the oxide, has been the focus of most previous work. Here we report a different source of entropy, the onsite electronic configurational entropy, arising from coupling between orbital and spin angular momenta in lanthanide f orbitals. We find that onsite electronic configurational entropy is sizable in all lanthanides, and reaches a maximum value of ≈4.7 k B per oxygen vacancy for Cemore » 4+/Ce 3+ reduction. This unique and large positive entropy source in ceria explains its excellent performance for high-temperature catalytic redox reactions such as water splitting. Our calculations also show that terbium dioxide has a high electronic entropy and thus could also be a potential candidate for solar thermochemical reactions.« less

Giant onsite electronic entropy enhances the performance of ceria for water splitting.

PubMed

Naghavi, S Shahab; Emery, Antoine A; Hansen, Heine A; Zhou, Fei; Ozolins, Vidvuds; Wolverton, Chris

2017-08-18

Previous studies have shown that a large solid-state entropy of reduction increases the thermodynamic efficiency of metal oxides, such as ceria, for two-step thermochemical water splitting cycles. In this context, the configurational entropy arising from oxygen off-stoichiometry in the oxide, has been the focus of most previous work. Here we report a different source of entropy, the onsite electronic configurational entropy, arising from coupling between orbital and spin angular momenta in lanthanide f orbitals. We find that onsite electronic configurational entropy is sizable in all lanthanides, and reaches a maximum value of ≈4.7 k B per oxygen vacancy for Ce 4+ /Ce 3+ reduction. This unique and large positive entropy source in ceria explains its excellent performance for high-temperature catalytic redox reactions such as water splitting. Our calculations also show that terbium dioxide has a high electronic entropy and thus could also be a potential candidate for solar thermochemical reactions.Solid-state entropy of reduction increases the thermodynamic efficiency of ceria for two-step thermochemical water splitting. Here, the authors report a large and different source of entropy, the onsite electronic configurational entropy arising from coupling between orbital and spin angular momenta in f orbitals.

Information theory-based decision support system for integrated design of multivariable hydrometric networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keum, Jongho; Coulibaly, Paulin

2017-07-01

Adequate and accurate hydrologic information from optimal hydrometric networks is an essential part of effective water resources management. Although the key hydrologic processes in the water cycle are interconnected, hydrometric networks (e.g., streamflow, precipitation, groundwater level) have been routinely designed individually. A decision support framework is proposed for integrated design of multivariable hydrometric networks. The proposed method is applied to design optimal precipitation and streamflow networks simultaneously. The epsilon-dominance hierarchical Bayesian optimization algorithm was combined with Shannon entropy of information theory to design and evaluate hydrometric networks. Specifically, the joint entropy from the combined networks was maximized to provide the most information, and the total correlation was minimized to reduce redundant information. To further optimize the efficiency between the networks, they were designed by maximizing the conditional entropy of the streamflow network given the information of the precipitation network. Compared to the traditional individual variable design approach, the integrated multivariable design method was able to determine more efficient optimal networks by avoiding the redundant stations. Additionally, four quantization cases were compared to evaluate their effects on the entropy calculations and the determination of the optimal networks. The evaluation results indicate that the quantization methods should be selected after careful consideration for each design problem since the station rankings and the optimal networks can change accordingly.

The limit behavior of the evolution of the Tsallis entropy in self-gravitating systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Yahui; Du, Jiulin; Liang, Faku

2017-06-01

In this letter, we study the limit behavior of the evolution of the Tsallis entropy in self-gravitating systems. The study is carried out under two different situations, drawing the same conclusion. No matter in the energy transfer process or in the mass transfer process inside the system, when the nonextensive parameter q is more than unity, the total entropy is bounded; on the contrary, when this parameter is less than unity, the total entropy is unbounded. There are proofs in both theory and observation that the q is always more than unity. So the Tsallis entropy in self-gravitating systems generally exhibits a bounded property. This indicates the existence of a global maximum of the Tsallis entropy. It is possible for self-gravitating systems to evolve to thermodynamically stable states.

UniEnt: uniform entropy model for the dynamics of a neuronal population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez Lahme, Damian; Nemenman, Ilya

Sensory information and motor responses are encoded in the brain in a collective spiking activity of a large number of neurons. Understanding the neural code requires inferring statistical properties of such collective dynamics from multicellular neurophysiological recordings. Questions of whether synchronous activity or silence of multiple neurons carries information about the stimuli or the motor responses are especially interesting. Unfortunately, detection of such high order statistical interactions from data is especially challenging due to the exponentially large dimensionality of the state space of neural collectives. Here we present UniEnt, a method for the inference of strengths of multivariate neural interaction patterns. The method is based on the Bayesian prior that makes no assumptions (uniform a priori expectations) about the value of the entropy of the observed multivariate neural activity, in contrast to popular approaches that maximize this entropy. We then study previously published multi-electrode recordings data from salamander retina, exposing the relevance of higher order neural interaction patterns for information encoding in this system. This work was supported in part by Grants JSMF/220020321 and NSF/IOS/1208126.

Novel sonar signal processing tool using Shannon entropy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quazi, A.H.

1996-06-01

Traditionally, conventional signal processing extracts information from sonar signals using amplitude, signal energy or frequency domain quantities obtained using spectral analysis techniques. The object is to investigate an alternate approach which is entirely different than that of traditional signal processing. This alternate approach is to utilize the Shannon entropy as a tool for the processing of sonar signals with emphasis on detection, classification, and localization leading to superior sonar system performance. Traditionally, sonar signals are processed coherently, semi-coherently, and incoherently, depending upon the a priori knowledge of the signals and noise. Here, the detection, classification, and localization technique will bemore » based on the concept of the entropy of the random process. Under a constant energy constraint, the entropy of a received process bearing finite number of sample points is maximum when hypothesis H{sub 0} (that the received process consists of noise alone) is true and decreases when correlated signal is present (H{sub 1}). Therefore, the strategy used for detection is: (I) Calculate the entropy of the received data; then, (II) compare the entropy with the maximum value; and, finally, (III) make decision: H{sub 1} is assumed if the difference is large compared to pre-assigned threshold and H{sub 0} is otherwise assumed. The test statistics will be different between entropies under H{sub 0} and H{sub 1}. Here, we shall show the simulated results for detecting stationary and non-stationary signals in noise, and results on detection of defects in a Plexiglas bar using an ultrasonic experiment conducted by Hughes. {copyright} {ital 1996 American Institute of Physics.}« less

Quantitative LC-MS of polymers: determining accurate molecular weight distributions by combined size exclusion chromatography and electrospray mass spectrometry with maximum entropy data processing.

PubMed

Gruendling, Till; Guilhaus, Michael; Barner-Kowollik, Christopher

2008-09-15

We report on the successful application of size exclusion chromatography (SEC) combined with electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS) and refractive index (RI) detection for the determination of accurate molecular weight distributions of synthetic polymers, corrected for chromatographic band broadening. The presented method makes use of the ability of ESI-MS to accurately depict the peak profiles and retention volumes of individual oligomers eluting from the SEC column, whereas quantitative information on the absolute concentration of oligomers is obtained from the RI-detector only. A sophisticated computational algorithm based on the maximum entropy principle is used to process the data gained by both detectors, yielding an accurate molecular weight distribution, corrected for chromatographic band broadening. Poly(methyl methacrylate) standards with molecular weights up to 10 kDa serve as model compounds. Molecular weight distributions (MWDs) obtained by the maximum entropy procedure are compared to MWDs, which were calculated by a conventional calibration of the SEC-retention time axis with peak retention data obtained from the mass spectrometer. Comparison showed that for the employed chromatographic system, distributions below 7 kDa were only weakly influenced by chromatographic band broadening. However, the maximum entropy algorithm could successfully correct the MWD of a 10 kDa standard for band broadening effects. Molecular weight averages were between 5 and 14% lower than the manufacturer stated data obtained by classical means of calibration. The presented method demonstrates a consistent approach for analyzing data obtained by coupling mass spectrometric detectors and concentration sensitive detectors to polymer liquid chromatography.

Predicting protein β-sheet contacts using a maximum entropy-based correlated mutation measure.

PubMed

Burkoff, Nikolas S; Várnai, Csilla; Wild, David L

2013-03-01

The problem of ab initio protein folding is one of the most difficult in modern computational biology. The prediction of residue contacts within a protein provides a more tractable immediate step. Recently introduced maximum entropy-based correlated mutation measures (CMMs), such as direct information, have been successful in predicting residue contacts. However, most correlated mutation studies focus on proteins that have large good-quality multiple sequence alignments (MSA) because the power of correlated mutation analysis falls as the size of the MSA decreases. However, even with small autogenerated MSAs, maximum entropy-based CMMs contain information. To make use of this information, in this article, we focus not on general residue contacts but contacts between residues in β-sheets. The strong constraints and prior knowledge associated with β-contacts are ideally suited for prediction using a method that incorporates an often noisy CMM. Using contrastive divergence, a statistical machine learning technique, we have calculated a maximum entropy-based CMM. We have integrated this measure with a new probabilistic model for β-contact prediction, which is used to predict both residue- and strand-level contacts. Using our model on a standard non-redundant dataset, we significantly outperform a 2D recurrent neural network architecture, achieving a 5% improvement in true positives at the 5% false-positive rate at the residue level. At the strand level, our approach is competitive with the state-of-the-art single methods achieving precision of 61.0% and recall of 55.4%, while not requiring residue solvent accessibility as an input. http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/systemsbiology/research/software/

Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics in Biological Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aoki, I.

2005-12-01

1. Respiration Oxygen-uptake by respiration in organisms decomposes macromolecules such as carbohydrate, protein and lipid and liberates chemical energy of high quality, which is then used to chemical reactions and motions of matter in organisms to support lively order in structure and function in organisms. Finally, this chemical energy becomes heat energy of low quality and is discarded to the outside (dissipation function). Accompanying this heat energy, entropy production which inevitably occurs by irreversibility also is discarded to the outside. Dissipation function and entropy production are estimated from data of respiration. 2. Human body From the observed data of respiration (oxygen absorption), the entropy production in human body can be estimated. Entropy production from 0 to 75 years old human has been obtained, and extrapolated to fertilized egg (beginning of human life) and to 120 years old (maximum period of human life). Entropy production show characteristic behavior in human life span : early rapid increase in short growing phase and later slow decrease in long aging phase. It is proposed that this tendency is ubiquitous and constitutes a Principle of Organization in complex biotic systems. 3. Ecological communities From the data of respiration of eighteen aquatic communities, specific (i.e. per biomass) entropy productions are obtained. They show two phase character with respect to trophic diversity : early increase and later decrease with the increase of trophic diversity. The trophic diversity in these aquatic ecosystems is shown to be positively correlated with the degree of eutrophication, and the degree of eutrophication is an "arrow of time" in the hierarchy of aquatic ecosystems. Hence specific entropy production has the two phase: early increase and later decrease with time. 4. Entropy principle for living systems The Second Law of Thermodynamics has been expressed as follows. 1) In isolated systems, entropy increases with time and approaches to a maximum value. This is well-known classical Clausius principle. 2) In open systems near equilibrium entropy production always decreases with time approaching a minimum stationary level. This is the minimum entropy production principle by Prigogine. These two principle are established ones. However, living systems are not isolated and not near to equilibrium. Hence, these two principles can not be applied to living systems. What is entropy principle for living systems? Answer: Entropy production in living systems consists of multi-stages with time: early increasing, later decreasing and/or intermediate stages. This tendency is supported by various living systems.

Quantifying Extrinsic Noise in Gene Expression Using the Maximum Entropy Framework

PubMed Central

Dixit, Purushottam D.

2013-01-01

We present a maximum entropy framework to separate intrinsic and extrinsic contributions to noisy gene expression solely from the profile of expression. We express the experimentally accessible probability distribution of the copy number of the gene product (mRNA or protein) by accounting for possible variations in extrinsic factors. The distribution of extrinsic factors is estimated using the maximum entropy principle. Our results show that extrinsic factors qualitatively and quantitatively affect the probability distribution of the gene product. We work out, in detail, the transcription of mRNA from a constitutively expressed promoter in Escherichia coli. We suggest that the variation in extrinsic factors may account for the observed wider-than-Poisson distribution of mRNA copy numbers. We successfully test our framework on a numerical simulation of a simple gene expression scheme that accounts for the variation in extrinsic factors. We also make falsifiable predictions, some of which are tested on previous experiments in E. coli whereas others need verification. Application of the presented framework to more complex situations is also discussed. PMID:23790383

Quantifying extrinsic noise in gene expression using the maximum entropy framework.

PubMed

Dixit, Purushottam D

2013-06-18

We present a maximum entropy framework to separate intrinsic and extrinsic contributions to noisy gene expression solely from the profile of expression. We express the experimentally accessible probability distribution of the copy number of the gene product (mRNA or protein) by accounting for possible variations in extrinsic factors. The distribution of extrinsic factors is estimated using the maximum entropy principle. Our results show that extrinsic factors qualitatively and quantitatively affect the probability distribution of the gene product. We work out, in detail, the transcription of mRNA from a constitutively expressed promoter in Escherichia coli. We suggest that the variation in extrinsic factors may account for the observed wider-than-Poisson distribution of mRNA copy numbers. We successfully test our framework on a numerical simulation of a simple gene expression scheme that accounts for the variation in extrinsic factors. We also make falsifiable predictions, some of which are tested on previous experiments in E. coli whereas others need verification. Application of the presented framework to more complex situations is also discussed. Copyright © 2013 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Competing risk models in reliability systems, a weibull distribution model with bayesian analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iskandar, Ismed; Satria Gondokaryono, Yudi

2016-02-01

In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range between the true value and the maximum likelihood estimated value lines.

Classification of pulmonary pathology from breath sounds using the wavelet packet transform and an extreme learning machine.

PubMed

Palaniappan, Rajkumar; Sundaraj, Kenneth; Sundaraj, Sebastian; Huliraj, N; Revadi, S S

2017-06-08

Auscultation is a medical procedure used for the initial diagnosis and assessment of lung and heart diseases. From this perspective, we propose assessing the performance of the extreme learning machine (ELM) classifiers for the diagnosis of pulmonary pathology using breath sounds. Energy and entropy features were extracted from the breath sound using the wavelet packet transform. The statistical significance of the extracted features was evaluated by one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). The extracted features were inputted into the ELM classifier. The maximum classification accuracies obtained for the conventional validation (CV) of the energy and entropy features were 97.36% and 98.37%, respectively, whereas the accuracies obtained for the cross validation (CRV) of the energy and entropy features were 96.80% and 97.91%, respectively. In addition, maximum classification accuracies of 98.25% and 99.25% were obtained for the CV and CRV of the ensemble features, respectively. The results indicate that the classification accuracy obtained with the ensemble features was higher than those obtained with the energy and entropy features.

A Bayesian Approach to More Stable Estimates of Group-Level Effects in Contextual Studies.

PubMed

Zitzmann, Steffen; Lüdtke, Oliver; Robitzsch, Alexander

2015-01-01

Multilevel analyses are often used to estimate the effects of group-level constructs. However, when using aggregated individual data (e.g., student ratings) to assess a group-level construct (e.g., classroom climate), the observed group mean might not provide a reliable measure of the unobserved latent group mean. In the present article, we propose a Bayesian approach that can be used to estimate a multilevel latent covariate model, which corrects for the unreliable assessment of the latent group mean when estimating the group-level effect. A simulation study was conducted to evaluate the choice of different priors for the group-level variance of the predictor variable and to compare the Bayesian approach with the maximum likelihood approach implemented in the software Mplus. Results showed that, under problematic conditions (i.e., small number of groups, predictor variable with a small ICC), the Bayesian approach produced more accurate estimates of the group-level effect than the maximum likelihood approach did.

Derivation of Hunt equation for suspension distribution using Shannon entropy theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundu, Snehasis

2017-12-01

In this study, the Hunt equation for computing suspension concentration in sediment-laden flows is derived using Shannon entropy theory. Considering the inverse of the void ratio as a random variable and using principle of maximum entropy, probability density function and cumulative distribution function of suspension concentration is derived. A new and more general cumulative distribution function for the flow domain is proposed which includes several specific other models of CDF reported in literature. This general form of cumulative distribution function also helps to derive the Rouse equation. The entropy based approach helps to estimate model parameters using suspension data of sediment concentration which shows the advantage of using entropy theory. Finally model parameters in the entropy based model are also expressed as functions of the Rouse number to establish a link between the parameters of the deterministic and probabilistic approaches.

Applications of quantum entropy to statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silver, R. N.; Martz, H. F.

This paper develops two generalizations of the maximum entropy (ME) principle. First, Shannon classical entropy is replaced by von Neumann quantum entropy to yield a broader class of information divergences (or penalty functions) for statistics applications. Negative relative quantum entropy enforces convexity, positivity, non-local extensivity and prior correlations such as smoothness. This enables the extension of ME methods from their traditional domain of ill-posed in-verse problems to new applications such as non-parametric density estimation. Second, given a choice of information divergence, a combination of ME and Bayes rule is used to assign both prior and posterior probabilities. Hyperparameters are interpreted as Lagrange multipliers enforcing constraints. Conservation principles are proposed to act statistical regularization and other hyperparameters, such as conservation of information and smoothness. ME provides an alternative to hierarchical Bayes methods.

The two-box model of climate: limitations and applications to planetary habitability and maximum entropy production studies.

PubMed

Lorenz, Ralph D

2010-05-12

The 'two-box model' of planetary climate is discussed. This model has been used to demonstrate consistency of the equator-pole temperature gradient on Earth, Mars and Titan with what would be predicted from a principle of maximum entropy production (MEP). While useful for exposition and for generating first-order estimates of planetary heat transports, it has too low a resolution to investigate climate systems with strong feedbacks. A two-box MEP model agrees well with the observed day : night temperature contrast observed on the extrasolar planet HD 189733b.

The two-box model of climate: limitations and applications to planetary habitability and maximum entropy production studies

PubMed Central

Lorenz, Ralph D.

2010-01-01

The ‘two-box model’ of planetary climate is discussed. This model has been used to demonstrate consistency of the equator–pole temperature gradient on Earth, Mars and Titan with what would be predicted from a principle of maximum entropy production (MEP). While useful for exposition and for generating first-order estimates of planetary heat transports, it has too low a resolution to investigate climate systems with strong feedbacks. A two-box MEP model agrees well with the observed day : night temperature contrast observed on the extrasolar planet HD 189733b. PMID:20368253

Optimal behavior of viscoelastic flow at resonant frequencies.

PubMed

Lambert, A A; Ibáñez, G; Cuevas, S; del Río, J A

2004-11-01

The global entropy generation rate in the zero-mean oscillatory flow of a Maxwell fluid in a pipe is analyzed with the aim of determining its behavior at resonant flow conditions. This quantity is calculated explicitly using the analytic expression for the velocity field and assuming isothermal conditions. The global entropy generation rate shows well-defined peaks at the resonant frequencies where the flow displays maximum velocities. It was found that resonant frequencies can be considered optimal in the sense that they maximize the power transmitted to the pulsating flow at the expense of maximum dissipation.

Twenty-five years of maximum-entropy principle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapur, J. N.

1983-04-01

The strengths and weaknesses of the maximum entropy principle (MEP) are examined and some challenging problems that remain outstanding at the end of the first quarter century of the principle are discussed. The original formalism of the MEP is presented and its relationship to statistical mechanics is set forth. The use of MEP for characterizing statistical distributions, in statistical inference, nonlinear spectral analysis, transportation models, population density models, models for brand-switching in marketing and vote-switching in elections is discussed. Its application to finance, insurance, image reconstruction, pattern recognition, operations research and engineering, biology and medicine, and nonparametric density estimation is considered.

Advanced Mathematical Tools in Metrology III

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciarlini, P.

The Table of Contents for the book is as follows: * Foreword * Invited Papers * The ISO Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement: A Bridge between Statistics and Metrology * Bootstrap Algorithms and Applications * The TTRSs: 13 Oriented Constraints for Dimensioning, Tolerancing & Inspection * Graded Reference Data Sets and Performance Profiles for Testing Software Used in Metrology * Uncertainty in Chemical Measurement * Mathematical Methods for Data Analysis in Medical Applications * High-Dimensional Empirical Linear Prediction * Wavelet Methods in Signal Processing * Software Problems in Calibration Services: A Case Study * Robust Alternatives to Least Squares * Gaining Information from Biomagnetic Measurements * Full Papers * Increase of Information in the Course of Measurement * A Framework for Model Validation and Software Testing in Regression * Certification of Algorithms for Determination of Signal Extreme Values during Measurement * A Method for Evaluating Trends in Ozone-Concentration Data and Its Application to Data from the UK Rural Ozone Monitoring Network * Identification of Signal Components by Stochastic Modelling in Measurements of Evoked Magnetic Fields from Peripheral Nerves * High Precision 3D-Calibration of Cylindrical Standards * Magnetic Dipole Estimations for MCG-Data * Transfer Functions of Discrete Spline Filters * An Approximation Method for the Linearization of Tridimensional Metrology Problems * Regularization Algorithms for Image Reconstruction from Projections * Quality of Experimental Data in Hydrodynamic Research * Stochastic Drift Models for the Determination of Calibration Intervals * Short Communications * Projection Method for Lidar Measurement * Photon Flux Measurements by Regularised Solution of Integral Equations * Correct Solutions of Fit Problems in Different Experimental Situations * An Algorithm for the Nonlinear TLS Problem in Polynomial Fitting * Designing Axially Symmetric Electromechanical Systems of Superconducting Magnetic Levitation in Matlab Environment * Data Flow Evaluation in Metrology * A Generalized Data Model for Integrating Clinical Data and Biosignal Records of Patients * Assessment of Three-Dimensional Structures in Clinical Dentistry * Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Approaches to Parameter Estimation in Mass Metrology * Amplitude and Phase Determination of Sinusoidal Vibration in the Nanometer Range using Quadrature Signals * A Class of Symmetric Compactly Supported Wavelets and Associated Dual Bases * Analysis of Surface Topography by Maximum Entropy Power Spectrum Estimation * Influence of Different Kinds of Errors on Imaging Results in Optical Tomography * Application of the Laser Interferometry for Automatic Calibration of Height Setting Micrometer * Author Index

Inferring Phylogenetic Networks Using PhyloNet.

PubMed

Wen, Dingqiao; Yu, Yun; Zhu, Jiafan; Nakhleh, Luay

2018-07-01

PhyloNet was released in 2008 as a software package for representing and analyzing phylogenetic networks. At the time of its release, the main functionalities in PhyloNet consisted of measures for comparing network topologies and a single heuristic for reconciling gene trees with a species tree. Since then, PhyloNet has grown significantly. The software package now includes a wide array of methods for inferring phylogenetic networks from data sets of unlinked loci while accounting for both reticulation (e.g., hybridization) and incomplete lineage sorting. In particular, PhyloNet now allows for maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference of phylogenetic networks from gene tree estimates. Furthermore, Bayesian inference directly from sequence data (sequence alignments or biallelic markers) is implemented. Maximum parsimony is based on an extension of the "minimizing deep coalescences" criterion to phylogenetic networks, whereas maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference are based on the multispecies network coalescent. All methods allow for multiple individuals per species. As computing the likelihood of a phylogenetic network is computationally hard, PhyloNet allows for evaluation and inference of networks using a pseudolikelihood measure. PhyloNet summarizes the results of the various analyzes and generates phylogenetic networks in the extended Newick format that is readily viewable by existing visualization software.

Statistical mechanical theory for steady state systems. VI. Variational principles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attard, Phil

2006-12-01

Several variational principles that have been proposed for nonequilibrium systems are analyzed. These include the principle of minimum rate of entropy production due to Prigogine [Introduction to Thermodynamics of Irreversible Processes (Interscience, New York, 1967)], the principle of maximum rate of entropy production, which is common on the internet and in the natural sciences, two principles of minimum dissipation due to Onsager [Phys. Rev. 37, 405 (1931)] and to Onsager and Machlup [Phys. Rev. 91, 1505 (1953)], and the principle of maximum second entropy due to Attard [J. Chem.. Phys. 122, 154101 (2005); Phys. Chem. Chem. Phys. 8, 3585 (2006)]. The approaches of Onsager and Attard are argued to be the only viable theories. These two are related, although their physical interpretation and mathematical approximations differ. A numerical comparison with computer simulation results indicates that Attard's expression is the only accurate theory. The implications for the Langevin and other stochastic differential equations are discussed.

Energy transports by ocean and atmosphere based on an entropy extremum principle. I - Zonal averaged transports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sohn, Byung-Ju; Smith, Eric A.

1993-01-01

The maximum entropy production principle suggested by Paltridge (1975) is applied to separating the satellite-determined required total transports into atmospheric and oceanic components. Instead of using the excessively restrictive equal energy dissipation hypothesis as a deterministic tool for separating transports between the atmosphere and ocean fluids, the satellite-inferred required 2D energy transports are imposed on Paltridge's energy balance model, which is then solved as a variational problem using the equal energy dissipation hypothesis only to provide an initial guess field. It is suggested that Southern Ocean transports are weaker than previously reported. It is argued that a maximum entropy production principle can serve as a governing rule on macroscale global climate, and, in conjunction with conventional satellite measurements of the net radiation balance, provides a means to decompose atmosphere and ocean transports from the total transport field.

Direct measurement of the electrocaloric effect in poly(vinylidene fluoride-trifluoroethylene-chlorotrifluoroethylene) terpolymer films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basso, Vittorio; Russo, Florence; Gerard, Jean-François; Pruvost, Sébastien

2013-11-01

We investigated the entropy change in poly(vinylidene fluoride-trifluoroethylene-chlorotrifluoroethylene) (P(VDF-TrFE-CTFE)) films in the temperature range between -5 ∘C and 60 ∘C by direct heat flux calorimetry using Peltier cell heat flux sensors. At the electric field E = 50 MVm-1 the isothermal entropy change attains a maximum of |Δs|=4.2 Jkg-1K-1 at 31∘C with an adiabatic temperature change ΔTad=1.1 K. At temperatures below the maximum, in the range from 25 ∘C to -5 ∘C, the entropy change |Δs | rapidly decreases and the unipolar P vs E relationship becomes hysteretic. This phenomenon is interpreted as the fact that the fluctuations of the polar segments of the polymer chain, responsible for the electrocaloric effect ECE in the polymer, becomes progressively frozen below the relaxor transition.

Maximum Renyi entropy principle for systems with power-law Hamiltonians.

PubMed

Bashkirov, A G

2004-09-24

The Renyi distribution ensuring the maximum of Renyi entropy is investigated for a particular case of a power-law Hamiltonian. Both Lagrange parameters alpha and beta can be eliminated. It is found that beta does not depend on a Renyi parameter q and can be expressed in terms of an exponent kappa of the power-law Hamiltonian and an average energy U. The Renyi entropy for the resulting Renyi distribution reaches its maximal value at q=1/(1+kappa) that can be considered as the most probable value of q when we have no additional information on the behavior of the stochastic process. The Renyi distribution for such q becomes a power-law distribution with the exponent -(kappa+1). When q=1/(1+kappa)+epsilon (0

Maximum one-shot dissipated work from Rényi divergences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yunger Halpern, Nicole; Garner, Andrew J. P.; Dahlsten, Oscar C. O.; Vedral, Vlatko

2018-05-01

Thermodynamics describes large-scale, slowly evolving systems. Two modern approaches generalize thermodynamics: fluctuation theorems, which concern finite-time nonequilibrium processes, and one-shot statistical mechanics, which concerns small scales and finite numbers of trials. Combining these approaches, we calculate a one-shot analog of the average dissipated work defined in fluctuation contexts: the cost of performing a protocol in finite time instead of quasistatically. The average dissipated work has been shown to be proportional to a relative entropy between phase-space densities, to a relative entropy between quantum states, and to a relative entropy between probability distributions over possible values of work. We derive one-shot analogs of all three equations, demonstrating that the order-infinity Rényi divergence is proportional to the maximum possible dissipated work in each case. These one-shot analogs of fluctuation-theorem results contribute to the unification of these two toolkits for small-scale, nonequilibrium statistical physics.

Maximum one-shot dissipated work from Rényi divergences.

PubMed

Yunger Halpern, Nicole; Garner, Andrew J P; Dahlsten, Oscar C O; Vedral, Vlatko

2018-05-01

Thermodynamics describes large-scale, slowly evolving systems. Two modern approaches generalize thermodynamics: fluctuation theorems, which concern finite-time nonequilibrium processes, and one-shot statistical mechanics, which concerns small scales and finite numbers of trials. Combining these approaches, we calculate a one-shot analog of the average dissipated work defined in fluctuation contexts: the cost of performing a protocol in finite time instead of quasistatically. The average dissipated work has been shown to be proportional to a relative entropy between phase-space densities, to a relative entropy between quantum states, and to a relative entropy between probability distributions over possible values of work. We derive one-shot analogs of all three equations, demonstrating that the order-infinity Rényi divergence is proportional to the maximum possible dissipated work in each case. These one-shot analogs of fluctuation-theorem results contribute to the unification of these two toolkits for small-scale, nonequilibrium statistical physics.

A graphic approach to include dissipative-like effects in reversible thermal cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Ayala, Julian; Arias-Hernandez, Luis Antonio; Angulo-Brown, Fernando

2017-05-01

Since the decade of 1980's, a connection between a family of maximum-work reversible thermal cycles and maximum-power finite-time endoreversible cycles has been established. The endoreversible cycles produce entropy at their couplings with the external heat baths. Thus, this kind of cycles can be optimized under criteria of merit that involve entropy production terms. Meanwhile the relation between the concept of work and power is quite direct, apparently, the finite-time objective functions involving entropy production have not reversible counterparts. In the present paper we show that it is also possible to establish a connection between irreversible cycle models and reversible ones by means of the concept of "geometric dissipation", which has to do with the equivalent role of a deficit of areas between some reversible cycles and the Carnot cycle and actual dissipative terms in a Curzon-Ahlborn engine.

High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation.

PubMed

Farmer, Jenny; Jacobs, Donald

2018-01-01

In high throughput applications, such as those found in bioinformatics and finance, it is important to determine accurate probability distribution functions despite only minimal information about data characteristics, and without using human subjectivity. Such an automated process for univariate data is implemented to achieve this goal by merging the maximum entropy method with single order statistics and maximum likelihood. The only required properties of the random variables are that they are continuous and that they are, or can be approximated as, independent and identically distributed. A quasi-log-likelihood function based on single order statistics for sampled uniform random data is used to empirically construct a sample size invariant universal scoring function. Then a probability density estimate is determined by iteratively improving trial cumulative distribution functions, where better estimates are quantified by the scoring function that identifies atypical fluctuations. This criterion resists under and over fitting data as an alternative to employing the Bayesian or Akaike information criterion. Multiple estimates for the probability density reflect uncertainties due to statistical fluctuations in random samples. Scaled quantile residual plots are also introduced as an effective diagnostic to visualize the quality of the estimated probability densities. Benchmark tests show that estimates for the probability density function (PDF) converge to the true PDF as sample size increases on particularly difficult test probability densities that include cases with discontinuities, multi-resolution scales, heavy tails, and singularities. These results indicate the method has general applicability for high throughput statistical inference.

High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation

PubMed Central

Farmer, Jenny

2018-01-01

In high throughput applications, such as those found in bioinformatics and finance, it is important to determine accurate probability distribution functions despite only minimal information about data characteristics, and without using human subjectivity. Such an automated process for univariate data is implemented to achieve this goal by merging the maximum entropy method with single order statistics and maximum likelihood. The only required properties of the random variables are that they are continuous and that they are, or can be approximated as, independent and identically distributed. A quasi-log-likelihood function based on single order statistics for sampled uniform random data is used to empirically construct a sample size invariant universal scoring function. Then a probability density estimate is determined by iteratively improving trial cumulative distribution functions, where better estimates are quantified by the scoring function that identifies atypical fluctuations. This criterion resists under and over fitting data as an alternative to employing the Bayesian or Akaike information criterion. Multiple estimates for the probability density reflect uncertainties due to statistical fluctuations in random samples. Scaled quantile residual plots are also introduced as an effective diagnostic to visualize the quality of the estimated probability densities. Benchmark tests show that estimates for the probability density function (PDF) converge to the true PDF as sample size increases on particularly difficult test probability densities that include cases with discontinuities, multi-resolution scales, heavy tails, and singularities. These results indicate the method has general applicability for high throughput statistical inference. PMID:29750803

Integrating Address Geocoding, Land Use Regression, and Spatiotemporal Geostatistical Estimation for Groundwater Tetrachloroethylene

PubMed Central

Messier, Kyle P.; Akita, Yasuyuki; Serre, Marc L.

2012-01-01

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) based techniques are cost-effective and efficient methods used by state agencies and epidemiology researchers for estimating concentration and exposure. However, budget limitations have made statewide assessments of contamination difficult, especially in groundwater media. Many studies have implemented address geocoding, land use regression, and geostatistics independently, but this is the first to examine the benefits of integrating these GIS techniques to address the need of statewide exposure assessments. A novel framework for concentration exposure is introduced that integrates address geocoding, land use regression (LUR), below detect data modeling, and Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME). A LUR model was developed for Tetrachloroethylene that accounts for point sources and flow direction. We then integrate the LUR model into the BME method as a mean trend while also modeling below detects data as a truncated Gaussian probability distribution function. We increase available PCE data 4.7 times from previously available databases through multistage geocoding. The LUR model shows significant influence of dry cleaners at short ranges. The integration of the LUR model as mean trend in BME results in a 7.5% decrease in cross validation mean square error compared to BME with a constant mean trend. PMID:22264162

Discriminative power of visual attributes in dermatology.

PubMed

Giotis, Ioannis; Visser, Margaretha; Jonkman, Marcel; Petkov, Nicolai

2013-02-01

Visual characteristics such as color and shape of skin lesions play an important role in the diagnostic process. In this contribution, we quantify the discriminative power of such attributes using an information theoretical approach. We estimate the probability of occurrence of each attribute as a function of the skin diseases. We use the distribution of this probability across the studied diseases and its entropy to define the discriminative power of the attribute. The discriminative power has a maximum value for attributes that occur (or do not occur) for only one disease and a minimum value for those which are equally likely to be observed among all diseases. Verrucous surface, red and brown colors, and the presence of more than 10 lesions are among the most informative attributes. A ranking of attributes is also carried out and used together with a naive Bayesian classifier, yielding results that confirm the soundness of the proposed method. proposed measure is proven to be a reliable way of assessing the discriminative power of dermatological attributes, and it also helps generate a condensed dermatological lexicon. Therefore, it can be of added value to the manual or computer-aided diagnostic process. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Model-driven development of covariances for spatiotemporal environmental health assessment.

PubMed

Kolovos, Alexander; Angulo, José Miguel; Modis, Konstantinos; Papantonopoulos, George; Wang, Jin-Feng; Christakos, George

2013-01-01

Known conceptual and technical limitations of mainstream environmental health data analysis have directed research to new avenues. The goal is to deal more efficiently with the inherent uncertainty and composite space-time heterogeneity of key attributes, account for multi-sourced knowledge bases (health models, survey data, empirical relationships etc.), and generate more accurate predictions across space-time. Based on a versatile, knowledge synthesis methodological framework, we introduce new space-time covariance functions built by integrating epidemic propagation models and we apply them in the analysis of existing flu datasets. Within the knowledge synthesis framework, the Bayesian maximum entropy theory is our method of choice for the spatiotemporal prediction of the ratio of new infectives (RNI) for a case study of flu in France. The space-time analysis is based on observations during a period of 15 weeks in 1998-1999. We present general features of the proposed covariance functions, and use these functions to explore the composite space-time RNI dependency. We then implement the findings to generate sufficiently detailed and informative maps of the RNI patterns across space and time. The predicted distributions of RNI suggest substantive relationships in accordance with the typical physiographic and climatologic features of the country.

Integrating address geocoding, land use regression, and spatiotemporal geostatistical estimation for groundwater tetrachloroethylene.

PubMed

Messier, Kyle P; Akita, Yasuyuki; Serre, Marc L

2012-03-06

Geographic information systems (GIS) based techniques are cost-effective and efficient methods used by state agencies and epidemiology researchers for estimating concentration and exposure. However, budget limitations have made statewide assessments of contamination difficult, especially in groundwater media. Many studies have implemented address geocoding, land use regression, and geostatistics independently, but this is the first to examine the benefits of integrating these GIS techniques to address the need of statewide exposure assessments. A novel framework for concentration exposure is introduced that integrates address geocoding, land use regression (LUR), below detect data modeling, and Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME). A LUR model was developed for tetrachloroethylene that accounts for point sources and flow direction. We then integrate the LUR model into the BME method as a mean trend while also modeling below detects data as a truncated Gaussian probability distribution function. We increase available PCE data 4.7 times from previously available databases through multistage geocoding. The LUR model shows significant influence of dry cleaners at short ranges. The integration of the LUR model as mean trend in BME results in a 7.5% decrease in cross validation mean square error compared to BME with a constant mean trend.

Generalized multiple kernel learning with data-dependent priors.

PubMed

Mao, Qi; Tsang, Ivor W; Gao, Shenghua; Wang, Li

2015-06-01

Multiple kernel learning (MKL) and classifier ensemble are two mainstream methods for solving learning problems in which some sets of features/views are more informative than others, or the features/views within a given set are inconsistent. In this paper, we first present a novel probabilistic interpretation of MKL such that maximum entropy discrimination with a noninformative prior over multiple views is equivalent to the formulation of MKL. Instead of using the noninformative prior, we introduce a novel data-dependent prior based on an ensemble of kernel predictors, which enhances the prediction performance of MKL by leveraging the merits of the classifier ensemble. With the proposed probabilistic framework of MKL, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian model to learn the proposed data-dependent prior and classification model simultaneously. The resultant problem is convex and other information (e.g., instances with either missing views or missing labels) can be seamlessly incorporated into the data-dependent priors. Furthermore, a variety of existing MKL models can be recovered under the proposed MKL framework and can be readily extended to incorporate these priors. Extensive experiments demonstrate the benefits of our proposed framework in supervised and semisupervised settings, as well as in tasks with partial correspondence among multiple views.

Evaluation of spatial and spatiotemporal estimation methods in simulation of precipitation variability patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayat, Bardia; Zahraie, Banafsheh; Taghavi, Farahnaz; Nasseri, Mohsen

2013-08-01

Identification of spatial and spatiotemporal precipitation variations plays an important role in different hydrological applications such as missing data estimation. In this paper, the results of Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) and ordinary kriging (OK) are compared for modeling spatial and spatiotemporal variations of annual precipitation with and without incorporating elevation variations. The study area of this research is Namak Lake watershed located in the central part of Iran with an area of approximately 90,000 km2. The BME and OK methods have been used to model the spatial and spatiotemporal variations of precipitation in this watershed, and their performances have been evaluated using cross-validation statistics. The results of the case study have shown the superiority of BME over OK in both spatial and spatiotemporal modes. The results have shown that BME estimates are less biased and more accurate than OK. The improvements in the BME estimates are mostly related to incorporating hard and soft data in the estimation process, which resulted in more detailed and reliable results. Estimation error variance for BME results is less than OK estimations in the study area in both spatial and spatiotemporal modes.

MEG source localization of spatially extended generators of epileptic activity: comparing entropic and hierarchical bayesian approaches.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Rasheda Arman; Lina, Jean Marc; Kobayashi, Eliane; Grova, Christophe

2013-01-01

Localizing the generators of epileptic activity in the brain using Electro-EncephaloGraphy (EEG) or Magneto-EncephaloGraphy (MEG) signals is of particular interest during the pre-surgical investigation of epilepsy. Epileptic discharges can be detectable from background brain activity, provided they are associated with spatially extended generators. Using realistic simulations of epileptic activity, this study evaluates the ability of distributed source localization methods to accurately estimate the location of the generators and their sensitivity to the spatial extent of such generators when using MEG data. Source localization methods based on two types of realistic models have been investigated: (i) brain activity may be modeled using cortical parcels and (ii) brain activity is assumed to be locally smooth within each parcel. A Data Driven Parcellization (DDP) method was used to segment the cortical surface into non-overlapping parcels and diffusion-based spatial priors were used to model local spatial smoothness within parcels. These models were implemented within the Maximum Entropy on the Mean (MEM) and the Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) source localization frameworks. We proposed new methods in this context and compared them with other standard ones using Monte Carlo simulations of realistic MEG data involving sources of several spatial extents and depths. Detection accuracy of each method was quantified using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis and localization error metrics. Our results showed that methods implemented within the MEM framework were sensitive to all spatial extents of the sources ranging from 3 cm(2) to 30 cm(2), whatever were the number and size of the parcels defining the model. To reach a similar level of accuracy within the HB framework, a model using parcels larger than the size of the sources should be considered.

MEG Source Localization of Spatially Extended Generators of Epileptic Activity: Comparing Entropic and Hierarchical Bayesian Approaches

PubMed Central

Chowdhury, Rasheda Arman; Lina, Jean Marc; Kobayashi, Eliane; Grova, Christophe

2013-01-01

Localizing the generators of epileptic activity in the brain using Electro-EncephaloGraphy (EEG) or Magneto-EncephaloGraphy (MEG) signals is of particular interest during the pre-surgical investigation of epilepsy. Epileptic discharges can be detectable from background brain activity, provided they are associated with spatially extended generators. Using realistic simulations of epileptic activity, this study evaluates the ability of distributed source localization methods to accurately estimate the location of the generators and their sensitivity to the spatial extent of such generators when using MEG data. Source localization methods based on two types of realistic models have been investigated: (i) brain activity may be modeled using cortical parcels and (ii) brain activity is assumed to be locally smooth within each parcel. A Data Driven Parcellization (DDP) method was used to segment the cortical surface into non-overlapping parcels and diffusion-based spatial priors were used to model local spatial smoothness within parcels. These models were implemented within the Maximum Entropy on the Mean (MEM) and the Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) source localization frameworks. We proposed new methods in this context and compared them with other standard ones using Monte Carlo simulations of realistic MEG data involving sources of several spatial extents and depths. Detection accuracy of each method was quantified using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis and localization error metrics. Our results showed that methods implemented within the MEM framework were sensitive to all spatial extents of the sources ranging from 3 cm2 to 30 cm2, whatever were the number and size of the parcels defining the model. To reach a similar level of accuracy within the HB framework, a model using parcels larger than the size of the sources should be considered. PMID:23418485

Bayesian correction for covariate measurement error: A frequentist evaluation and comparison with regression calibration.

PubMed

Bartlett, Jonathan W; Keogh, Ruth H

2018-06-01

Bayesian approaches for handling covariate measurement error are well established and yet arguably are still relatively little used by researchers. For some this is likely due to unfamiliarity or disagreement with the Bayesian inferential paradigm. For others a contributory factor is the inability of standard statistical packages to perform such Bayesian analyses. In this paper, we first give an overview of the Bayesian approach to handling covariate measurement error, and contrast it with regression calibration, arguably the most commonly adopted approach. We then argue why the Bayesian approach has a number of statistical advantages compared to regression calibration and demonstrate that implementing the Bayesian approach is usually quite feasible for the analyst. Next, we describe the closely related maximum likelihood and multiple imputation approaches and explain why we believe the Bayesian approach to generally be preferable. We then empirically compare the frequentist properties of regression calibration and the Bayesian approach through simulation studies. The flexibility of the Bayesian approach to handle both measurement error and missing data is then illustrated through an analysis of data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

Fuselets: an agent based architecture for fusion of heterogeneous information and data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beyerer, Jürgen; Heizmann, Michael; Sander, Jennifer

2006-04-01

A new architecture for fusing information and data from heterogeneous sources is proposed. The approach takes criminalistics as a model. In analogy to the work of detectives, who attempt to investigate crimes, software agents are initiated that pursue clues and try to consolidate or to dismiss hypotheses. Like their human pendants, they can, if questions beyond their competences arise, consult expert agents. Within the context of a certain task, region, and time interval, specialized operations are applied to each relevant information source, e.g. IMINT, SIGINT, ACINT,..., HUMINT, data bases etc. in order to establish hit lists of first clues. Each clue is described by its pertaining facts, uncertainties, and dependencies in form of a local degree-of-belief (DoB) distribution in a Bayesian sense. For each clue an agent is initiated which cooperates with other agents and experts. Expert agents support to make use of different information sources. Consultations of experts, capable to access certain information sources, result in changes of the DoB of the pertaining clue. According to the significance of concentration of their DoB distribution clues are abandoned or pursued further to formulate task specific hypotheses. Communications between the agents serve to find out whether different clues belong to the same cause and thus can be put together. At the end of the investigation process, the different hypotheses are evaluated by a jury and a final report is created that constitutes the fusion result. The approach proposed avoids calculating global DoB distributions by adopting a local Bayesian approximation and thus reduces the complexity of the exact problem essentially. Different information sources are transformed into DoB distributions using the maximum entropy paradigm and considering known facts as constraints. Nominal, ordinal and cardinal quantities can be treated within this framework equally. The architecture is scalable by tailoring the number of agents according to the available computer resources, to the priority of tasks, and to the maximum duration of the fusion process. Furthermore, the architecture allows cooperative work of human and automated agents and experts, as long as not all subtasks can be accomplished automatically.

Evaluating the uncertainty of input quantities in measurement models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Possolo, Antonio; Elster, Clemens

2014-06-01

The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) gives guidance about how values and uncertainties should be assigned to the input quantities that appear in measurement models. This contribution offers a concrete proposal for how that guidance may be updated in light of the advances in the evaluation and expression of measurement uncertainty that were made in the course of the twenty years that have elapsed since the publication of the GUM, and also considering situations that the GUM does not yet contemplate. Our motivation is the ongoing conversation about a new edition of the GUM. While generally we favour a Bayesian approach to uncertainty evaluation, we also recognize the value that other approaches may bring to the problems considered here, and focus on methods for uncertainty evaluation and propagation that are widely applicable, including to cases that the GUM has not yet addressed. In addition to Bayesian methods, we discuss maximum-likelihood estimation, robust statistical methods, and measurement models where values of nominal properties play the same role that input quantities play in traditional models. We illustrate these general-purpose techniques in concrete examples, employing data sets that are realistic but that also are of conveniently small sizes. The supplementary material available online lists the R computer code that we have used to produce these examples (stacks.iop.org/Met/51/3/339/mmedia). Although we strive to stay close to clause 4 of the GUM, which addresses the evaluation of uncertainty for input quantities, we depart from it as we review the classes of measurement models that we believe are generally useful in contemporary measurement science. We also considerably expand and update the treatment that the GUM gives to Type B evaluations of uncertainty: reviewing the state-of-the-art, disciplined approach to the elicitation of expert knowledge, and its encapsulation in probability distributions that are usable in uncertainty propagation exercises. In this we deviate markedly and emphatically from the GUM Supplement 1, which gives pride of place to the Principle of Maximum Entropy as a means to assign probability distributions to input quantities.

Steepest entropy ascent for two-state systems with slowly varying Hamiltonians

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Militello, Benedetto

2018-05-01

The steepest entropy ascent approach is considered and applied to two-state systems. When the Hamiltonian of the system is time-dependent, the principle of maximum entropy production can still be exploited; arguments to support this fact are given. In the limit of slowly varying Hamiltonians, which allows for the adiabatic approximation for the unitary part of the dynamics, the system exhibits significant robustness to the thermalization process. Specific examples such as a spin in a rotating field and a generic two-state system undergoing an avoided crossing are considered.

Entropy Inequality Violations from Ultraspinning Black Holes.

PubMed

Hennigar, Robie A; Mann, Robert B; Kubizňák, David

2015-07-17

We construct a new class of rotating anti-de Sitter (AdS) black hole solutions with noncompact event horizons of finite area in any dimension and study their thermodynamics. In four dimensions these black holes are solutions to gauged supergravity. We find that their entropy exceeds the maximum implied from the conjectured reverse isoperimetric inequality, which states that for a given thermodynamic volume, the black hole entropy is maximized for Schwarzschild-AdS space. We use this result to suggest more stringent conditions under which this conjecture may hold.

Toward the Application of the Maximum Entropy Production Principle to a Broader Range of Far From Equilibrium Dissipative Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lineweaver, C. H.

2005-12-01

The principle of Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) is being usefully applied to a wide range of non-equilibrium processes including flows in planetary atmospheres and the bioenergetics of photosynthesis. Our goal of applying the principle of maximum entropy production to an even wider range of Far From Equilibrium Dissipative Systems (FFEDS) depends on the reproducibility of the evolution of the system from macro-state A to macro-state B. In an attempt to apply the principle of MEP to astronomical and cosmological structures, we investigate the problematic relationship between gravity and entropy. In the context of open and non-equilibrium systems, we use a generalization of the Gibbs free energy to include the sources of free energy extracted by non-living FFEDS such as hurricanes and convection cells. Redox potential gradients and thermal and pressure gradients provide the free energy for a broad range of FFEDS, both living and non-living. However, these gradients have to be within certain ranges. If the gradients are too weak, FFEDS do not appear. If the gradients are too strong FFEDS disappear. Living and non-living FFEDS often have different source gradients (redox potential gradients vs thermal and pressure gradients) and when they share the same gradient, they exploit different ranges of the gradient. In a preliminary attempt to distinguish living from non-living FFEDS, we investigate the parameter space of: type of gradient and steepness of gradient.

Learning Probabilities From Random Observables in High Dimensions: The Maximum Entropy Distribution and Others

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obuchi, Tomoyuki; Cocco, Simona; Monasson, Rémi

2015-11-01

We consider the problem of learning a target probability distribution over a set of N binary variables from the knowledge of the expectation values (with this target distribution) of M observables, drawn uniformly at random. The space of all probability distributions compatible with these M expectation values within some fixed accuracy, called version space, is studied. We introduce a biased measure over the version space, which gives a boost increasing exponentially with the entropy of the distributions and with an arbitrary inverse `temperature' Γ . The choice of Γ allows us to interpolate smoothly between the unbiased measure over all distributions in the version space (Γ =0) and the pointwise measure concentrated at the maximum entropy distribution (Γ → ∞ ). Using the replica method we compute the volume of the version space and other quantities of interest, such as the distance R between the target distribution and the center-of-mass distribution over the version space, as functions of α =(log M)/N and Γ for large N. Phase transitions at critical values of α are found, corresponding to qualitative improvements in the learning of the target distribution and to the decrease of the distance R. However, for fixed α the distance R does not vary with Γ which means that the maximum entropy distribution is not closer to the target distribution than any other distribution compatible with the observable values. Our results are confirmed by Monte Carlo sampling of the version space for small system sizes (N≤ 10).

Optimized Kernel Entropy Components.

PubMed

Izquierdo-Verdiguier, Emma; Laparra, Valero; Jenssen, Robert; Gomez-Chova, Luis; Camps-Valls, Gustau

2017-06-01

This brief addresses two main issues of the standard kernel entropy component analysis (KECA) algorithm: the optimization of the kernel decomposition and the optimization of the Gaussian kernel parameter. KECA roughly reduces to a sorting of the importance of kernel eigenvectors by entropy instead of variance, as in the kernel principal components analysis. In this brief, we propose an extension of the KECA method, named optimized KECA (OKECA), that directly extracts the optimal features retaining most of the data entropy by means of compacting the information in very few features (often in just one or two). The proposed method produces features which have higher expressive power. In particular, it is based on the independent component analysis framework, and introduces an extra rotation to the eigen decomposition, which is optimized via gradient-ascent search. This maximum entropy preservation suggests that OKECA features are more efficient than KECA features for density estimation. In addition, a critical issue in both the methods is the selection of the kernel parameter, since it critically affects the resulting performance. Here, we analyze the most common kernel length-scale selection criteria. The results of both the methods are illustrated in different synthetic and real problems. Results show that OKECA returns projections with more expressive power than KECA, the most successful rule for estimating the kernel parameter is based on maximum likelihood, and OKECA is more robust to the selection of the length-scale parameter in kernel density estimation.

Constraints on rapidity-dependent initial conditions from charged-particle pseudorapidity densities and two-particle correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ke, Weiyao; Moreland, J. Scott; Bernhard, Jonah E.; Bass, Steffen A.

2017-10-01

We study the initial three-dimensional spatial configuration of the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) produced in relativistic heavy-ion collisions using centrality and pseudorapidity-dependent measurements of the medium's charged particle density and two-particle correlations. A cumulant-generating function is first used to parametrize the rapidity dependence of local entropy deposition and extend arbitrary boost-invariant initial conditions to nonzero beam rapidities. The model is then compared to p +Pb and Pb + Pb charged-particle pseudorapidity densities and two-particle pseudorapidity correlations and systematically optimized using Bayesian parameter estimation to extract high-probability initial condition parameters. The optimized initial conditions are then compared to a number of experimental observables including the pseudorapidity-dependent anisotropic flows, event-plane decorrelations, and flow correlations. We find that the form of the initial local longitudinal entropy profile is well constrained by these experimental measurements.

Statistical theory on the analytical form of cloud particle size distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Wei; McFarquhar, Greg

2017-11-01

Several analytical forms of cloud particle size distributions (PSDs) have been used in numerical modeling and remote sensing retrieval studies of clouds and precipitation, including exponential, gamma, lognormal, and Weibull distributions. However, there is no satisfying physical explanation as to why certain distribution forms preferentially occur instead of others. Theoretically, the analytical form of a PSD can be derived by directly solving the general dynamic equation, but no analytical solutions have been found yet. Instead of using a process level approach, the use of the principle of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) for determining the analytical form of PSDs from the perspective of system is examined here. Here, the issue of variability under coordinate transformations that arises using the Gibbs/Shannon definition of entropy is identified, and the use of the concept of relative entropy to avoid these problems is discussed. Focusing on cloud physics, the four-parameter generalized gamma distribution is proposed as the analytical form of a PSD using the principle of maximum (relative) entropy with assumptions on power law relations between state variables, scale invariance and a further constraint on the expectation of one state variable (e.g. bulk water mass). DOE ASR.

Analysis of rapid eye movement periodicity in narcoleptics based on maximum entropy method.

PubMed

Honma, H; Ohtomo, N; Kohsaka, M; Fukuda, N; Kobayashi, R; Sakakibara, S; Nakamura, F; Koyama, T

1999-04-01

We examined REM sleep periodicity in typical narcoleptics and patients who had shown signs of a narcoleptic tetrad without HLA-DRB1*1501/DQB1*0602 or DR2 antigens, using spectral analysis based on the maximum entropy method. The REM sleep period of typical narcoleptics showed two peaks, one at 70-90 min and one at 110-130 min at night, and a single peak at around 70-90 min during the daytime. The nocturnal REM sleep period of typical narcoleptics may be composed of several different periods, one of which corresponds to that of their daytime REM sleep.

A homotopy algorithm for synthesizing robust controllers for flexible structures via the maximum entropy design equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collins, Emmanuel G., Jr.; Richter, Stephen

1990-01-01

One well known deficiency of LQG compensators is that they do not guarantee any measure of robustness. This deficiency is especially highlighted when considering control design for complex systems such as flexible structures. There has thus been a need to generalize LQG theory to incorporate robustness constraints. Here we describe the maximum entropy approach to robust control design for flexible structures, a generalization of LQG theory, pioneered by Hyland, which has proved useful in practice. The design equations consist of a set of coupled Riccati and Lyapunov equations. A homotopy algorithm that is used to solve these design equations is presented.

16QAM Blind Equalization via Maximum Entropy Density Approximation Technique and Nonlinear Lagrange Multipliers

PubMed Central

Mauda, R.; Pinchas, M.

2014-01-01

Recently a new blind equalization method was proposed for the 16QAM constellation input inspired by the maximum entropy density approximation technique with improved equalization performance compared to the maximum entropy approach, Godard's algorithm, and others. In addition, an approximated expression for the minimum mean square error (MSE) was obtained. The idea was to find those Lagrange multipliers that bring the approximated MSE to minimum. Since the derivation of the obtained MSE with respect to the Lagrange multipliers leads to a nonlinear equation for the Lagrange multipliers, the part in the MSE expression that caused the nonlinearity in the equation for the Lagrange multipliers was ignored. Thus, the obtained Lagrange multipliers were not those Lagrange multipliers that bring the approximated MSE to minimum. In this paper, we derive a new set of Lagrange multipliers based on the nonlinear expression for the Lagrange multipliers obtained from minimizing the approximated MSE with respect to the Lagrange multipliers. Simulation results indicate that for the high signal to noise ratio (SNR) case, a faster convergence rate is obtained for a channel causing a high initial intersymbol interference (ISI) while the same equalization performance is obtained for an easy channel (initial ISI low). PMID:24723813

Stimulus-dependent Maximum Entropy Models of Neural Population Codes

PubMed Central

Segev, Ronen; Schneidman, Elad

2013-01-01

Neural populations encode information about their stimulus in a collective fashion, by joint activity patterns of spiking and silence. A full account of this mapping from stimulus to neural activity is given by the conditional probability distribution over neural codewords given the sensory input. For large populations, direct sampling of these distributions is impossible, and so we must rely on constructing appropriate models. We show here that in a population of 100 retinal ganglion cells in the salamander retina responding to temporal white-noise stimuli, dependencies between cells play an important encoding role. We introduce the stimulus-dependent maximum entropy (SDME) model—a minimal extension of the canonical linear-nonlinear model of a single neuron, to a pairwise-coupled neural population. We find that the SDME model gives a more accurate account of single cell responses and in particular significantly outperforms uncoupled models in reproducing the distributions of population codewords emitted in response to a stimulus. We show how the SDME model, in conjunction with static maximum entropy models of population vocabulary, can be used to estimate information-theoretic quantities like average surprise and information transmission in a neural population. PMID:23516339

Mixture class recovery in GMM under varying degrees of class separation: frequentist versus Bayesian estimation.

PubMed

Depaoli, Sarah

2013-06-01

Growth mixture modeling (GMM) represents a technique that is designed to capture change over time for unobserved subgroups (or latent classes) that exhibit qualitatively different patterns of growth. The aim of the current article was to explore the impact of latent class separation (i.e., how similar growth trajectories are across latent classes) on GMM performance. Several estimation conditions were compared: maximum likelihood via the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm and the Bayesian framework implementing diffuse priors, "accurate" informative priors, weakly informative priors, data-driven informative priors, priors reflecting partial-knowledge of parameters, and "inaccurate" (but informative) priors. The main goal was to provide insight about the optimal estimation condition under different degrees of latent class separation for GMM. Results indicated that optimal parameter recovery was obtained though the Bayesian approach using "accurate" informative priors, and partial-knowledge priors showed promise for the recovery of the growth trajectory parameters. Maximum likelihood and the remaining Bayesian estimation conditions yielded poor parameter recovery for the latent class proportions and the growth trajectories. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

A full-Bayesian approach to parameter inference from tracer travel time moments and investigation of scale effects at the Cape Cod experimental site

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodbury, Allan D.; Rubin, Yoram

2000-01-01

A method for inverting the travel time moments of solutes in heterogeneous aquifers is presented and is based on peak concentration arrival times as measured at various samplers in an aquifer. The approach combines a Lagrangian [Rubin and Dagan, 1992] solute transport framework with full‐Bayesian hydrogeological parameter inference. In the full‐Bayesian approach the noise values in the observed data are treated as hyperparameters, and their effects are removed by marginalization. The prior probability density functions (pdfs) for the model parameters (horizontal integral scale, velocity, and log K variance) and noise values are represented by prior pdfs developed from minimum relative entropy considerations. Analysis of the Cape Cod (Massachusetts) field experiment is presented. Inverse results for the hydraulic parameters indicate an expected value for the velocity, variance of log hydraulic conductivity, and horizontal integral scale of 0.42 m/d, 0.26, and 3.0 m, respectively. While these results are consistent with various direct‐field determinations, the importance of the findings is in the reduction of confidence range about the various expected values. On selected control planes we compare observed travel time frequency histograms with the theoretical pdf, conditioned on the observed travel time moments. We observe a positive skew in the travel time pdf which tends to decrease as the travel time distance grows. We also test the hypothesis that there is no scale dependence of the integral scale λ with the scale of the experiment at Cape Cod. We adopt two strategies. The first strategy is to use subsets of the full data set and then to see if the resulting parameter fits are different as we use different data from control planes at expanding distances from the source. The second approach is from the viewpoint of entropy concentration. No increase in integral scale with distance is inferred from either approach over the range of the Cape Cod tracer experiment.

Probabilistic models in human sensorimotor control

PubMed Central

Wolpert, Daniel M.

2009-01-01

Sensory and motor uncertainty form a fundamental constraint on human sensorimotor control. Bayesian decision theory (BDT) has emerged as a unifying framework to understand how the central nervous system performs optimal estimation and control in the face of such uncertainty. BDT has two components: Bayesian statistics and decision theory. Here we review Bayesian statistics and show how it applies to estimating the state of the world and our own body. Recent results suggest that when learning novel tasks we are able to learn the statistical properties of both the world and our own sensory apparatus so as to perform estimation using Bayesian statistics. We review studies which suggest that humans can combine multiple sources of information to form maximum likelihood estimates, can incorporate prior beliefs about possible states of the world so as to generate maximum a posteriori estimates and can use Kalman filter-based processes to estimate time-varying states. Finally, we review Bayesian decision theory in motor control and how the central nervous system processes errors to determine loss functions and optimal actions. We review results that suggest we plan movements based on statistics of our actions that result from signal-dependent noise on our motor outputs. Taken together these studies provide a statistical framework for how the motor system performs in the presence of uncertainty. PMID:17628731

Entropy in self-similar shock profiles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Margolin, Len G.; Reisner, Jon Michael; Jordan, Pedro M.

In this paper, we study the structure of a gaseous shock, and in particular the distribution of entropy within, in both a thermodynamics and a statistical mechanics context. The problem of shock structure has a long and distinguished history that we review. We employ the Navier–Stokes equations to construct a self–similar version of Becker’s solution for a shock assuming a particular (physically plausible) Prandtl number; that solution reproduces the well–known result of Morduchow & Libby that features a maximum of the equilibrium entropy inside the shock profile. We then construct an entropy profile, based on gas kinetic theory, that ismore » smooth and monotonically increasing. The extension of equilibrium thermodynamics to irreversible processes is based in part on the assumption of local thermodynamic equilibrium. We show that this assumption is not valid except for the weakest shocks. Finally, we conclude by hypothesizing a thermodynamic nonequilibrium entropy and demonstrating that it closely estimates the gas kinetic nonequilibrium entropy within a shock.« less

Entropy in self-similar shock profiles

DOE PAGES

Margolin, Len G.; Reisner, Jon Michael; Jordan, Pedro M.

2017-07-16

In this paper, we study the structure of a gaseous shock, and in particular the distribution of entropy within, in both a thermodynamics and a statistical mechanics context. The problem of shock structure has a long and distinguished history that we review. We employ the Navier–Stokes equations to construct a self–similar version of Becker’s solution for a shock assuming a particular (physically plausible) Prandtl number; that solution reproduces the well–known result of Morduchow & Libby that features a maximum of the equilibrium entropy inside the shock profile. We then construct an entropy profile, based on gas kinetic theory, that ismore » smooth and monotonically increasing. The extension of equilibrium thermodynamics to irreversible processes is based in part on the assumption of local thermodynamic equilibrium. We show that this assumption is not valid except for the weakest shocks. Finally, we conclude by hypothesizing a thermodynamic nonequilibrium entropy and demonstrating that it closely estimates the gas kinetic nonequilibrium entropy within a shock.« less

Finding the quantum thermoelectric with maximal efficiency and minimal entropy production at given power output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitney, Robert S.

2015-03-01

We investigate the nonlinear scattering theory for quantum systems with strong Seebeck and Peltier effects, and consider their use as heat engines and refrigerators with finite power outputs. This paper gives detailed derivations of the results summarized in a previous paper [R. S. Whitney, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112, 130601 (2014), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.112.130601]. It shows how to use the scattering theory to find (i) the quantum thermoelectric with maximum possible power output, and (ii) the quantum thermoelectric with maximum efficiency at given power output. The latter corresponds to a minimal entropy production at that power output. These quantities are of quantum origin since they depend on system size over electronic wavelength, and so have no analog in classical thermodynamics. The maximal efficiency coincides with Carnot efficiency at zero power output, but decreases with increasing power output. This gives a fundamental lower bound on entropy production, which means that reversibility (in the thermodynamic sense) is impossible for finite power output. The suppression of efficiency by (nonlinear) phonon and photon effects is addressed in detail; when these effects are strong, maximum efficiency coincides with maximum power. Finally, we show in particular limits (typically without magnetic fields) that relaxation within the quantum system does not allow the system to exceed the bounds derived for relaxation-free systems, however, a general proof of this remains elusive.

Application of a multiscale maximum entropy image restoration algorithm to HXMT observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Ju; Song, Li-Ming; Huo, Zhuo-Xi

2016-08-01

This paper introduces a multiscale maximum entropy (MSME) algorithm for image restoration of the Hard X-ray Modulation Telescope (HXMT), which is a collimated scan X-ray satellite mainly devoted to a sensitive all-sky survey and pointed observations in the 1-250 keV range. The novelty of the MSME method is to use wavelet decomposition and multiresolution support to control noise amplification at different scales. Our work is focused on the application and modification of this method to restore diffuse sources detected by HXMT scanning observations. An improved method, the ensemble multiscale maximum entropy (EMSME) algorithm, is proposed to alleviate the problem of mode mixing exiting in MSME. Simulations have been performed on the detection of the diffuse source Cen A by HXMT in all-sky survey mode. The results show that the MSME method is adapted to the deconvolution task of HXMT for diffuse source detection and the improved method could suppress noise and improve the correlation and signal-to-noise ratio, thus proving itself a better algorithm for image restoration. Through one all-sky survey, HXMT could reach a capacity of detecting a diffuse source with maximum differential flux of 0.5 mCrab. Supported by Strategic Priority Research Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA04010300) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (11403014)

Ecosystem functioning and maximum entropy production: a quantitative test of hypotheses.

PubMed

Meysman, Filip J R; Bruers, Stijn

2010-05-12

The idea that entropy production puts a constraint on ecosystem functioning is quite popular in ecological thermodynamics. Yet, until now, such claims have received little quantitative verification. Here, we examine three 'entropy production' hypotheses that have been forwarded in the past. The first states that increased entropy production serves as a fingerprint of living systems. The other two hypotheses invoke stronger constraints. The state selection hypothesis states that when a system can attain multiple steady states, the stable state will show the highest entropy production rate. The gradient response principle requires that when the thermodynamic gradient increases, the system's new stable state should always be accompanied by a higher entropy production rate. We test these three hypotheses by applying them to a set of conventional food web models. Each time, we calculate the entropy production rate associated with the stable state of the ecosystem. This analysis shows that the first hypothesis holds for all the food webs tested: the living state shows always an increased entropy production over the abiotic state. In contrast, the state selection and gradient response hypotheses break down when the food web incorporates more than one trophic level, indicating that they are not generally valid.

Towards operational interpretations of generalized entropies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topsøe, Flemming

2010-12-01

The driving force behind our study has been to overcome the difficulties you encounter when you try to extend the clear and convincing operational interpretations of classical Boltzmann-Gibbs-Shannon entropy to other notions, especially to generalized entropies as proposed by Tsallis. Our approach is philosophical, based on speculations regarding the interplay between truth, belief and knowledge. The main result demonstrates that, accepting philosophically motivated assumptions, the only possible measures of entropy are those suggested by Tsallis - which, as we know, include classical entropy. This result constitutes, so it seems, a more transparent interpretation of entropy than previously available. However, further research to clarify the assumptions is still needed. Our study points to the thesis that one should never consider the notion of entropy in isolation - in order to enable a rich and technically smooth study, further concepts, such as divergence, score functions and descriptors or controls should be included in the discussion. This will clarify the distinction between Nature and Observer and facilitate a game theoretical discussion. The usefulness of this distinction and the subsequent exploitation of game theoretical results - such as those connected with the notion of Nash equilibrium - is demonstrated by a discussion of the Maximum Entropy Principle.

Inverse and forward modeling under uncertainty using MRE-based Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Z.; Rubin, Y.

2004-12-01

A stochastic inverse approach for subsurface characterization is proposed and applied to shallow vadose zone at a winery field site in north California and to a gas reservoir at the Ormen Lange field site in the North Sea. The approach is formulated in a Bayesian-stochastic framework, whereby the unknown parameters are identified in terms of their statistical moments or their probabilities. Instead of the traditional single-valued estimation /prediction provided by deterministic methods, the approach gives a probability distribution for an unknown parameter. This allows calculating the mean, the mode, and the confidence interval, which is useful for a rational treatment of uncertainty and its consequences. The approach also allows incorporating data of various types and different error levels, including measurements of state variables as well as information such as bounds on or statistical moments of the unknown parameters, which may represent prior information. To obtain minimally subjective prior probabilities required for the Bayesian approach, the principle of Minimum Relative Entropy (MRE) is employed. The approach is tested in field sites for flow parameters identification and soil moisture estimation in the vadose zone and for gas saturation estimation at great depth below the ocean floor. Results indicate the potential of coupling various types of field data within a MRE-based Bayesian formalism for improving the estimation of the parameters of interest.

A plea for "variational neuroethology". Comment on "Answering Schrödinger's question: A free-energy formulation" by M.J. Desormeau Ramstead et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daunizeau, Jean

2018-03-01

What is life? According to Erwin Schrödinger [13], the living cell departs from other physical systems in that it - apparently - resists the second law of thermodynamics by restricting the dynamical repertoire (minimizing the entropy) of its physiological states. This is a physical rephrasing of Claude Bernard's biological notion of homeostasis, namely: the capacity of living systems to self-organize in order to maintain the stability of their internal milieu despite uninterrupted exchanges with an ever-altering external environment [2]. The important point here is that physical systems can neither identify nor prevent a state of high entropy. The Free Energy Principle or FEP was originally proposed as a mathematical description of how the brain actually solves this issue [4]. In line with the Bayesian brain hypothesis, the FEP views the brain as a hierarchical statistical learning machine, endowed with the imperative of minimizing Free Energy, i.e. prediction error. Action prescription under the FEP, however, does not follow standard Bayesian decision theory. Rather, action is assumed to further minimize Free Energy, which makes the active brain a self-fulfilling prophecy machine [6]. This is adaptive, under the assumption that evolution has equipped the brain with innate priors centered on homeostatic set points. In turn, avoiding (surprising) violations of such prior predictions implements homeostatic regulation [10], which becomes increasingly anticipatory as learning unfolds over the course of ontological development [5].

Entropy of international trades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Chang-Young; Lee, D.-S.

2017-05-01

The organization of international trades is highly complex under the collective efforts towards economic profits of participating countries given inhomogeneous resources for production. Considering the trade flux as the probability of exporting a product from a country to another, we evaluate the entropy of the world trades in the period 1950-2000. The trade entropy has increased with time, and we show that it is mainly due to the extension of trade partnership. For a given number of trade partners, the mean trade entropy is about 60% of the maximum possible entropy, independent of time, which can be regarded as a characteristic of the trade fluxes' heterogeneity and is shown to be derived from the scaling and functional behaviors of the universal trade-flux distribution. The correlation and time evolution of the individual countries' gross-domestic products and the number of trade partners show that most countries achieved their economic growth partly by extending their trade relationship.

Jarzynski equality in the context of maximum path entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, Diego; Davis, Sergio

2017-06-01

In the global framework of finding an axiomatic derivation of nonequilibrium Statistical Mechanics from fundamental principles, such as the maximum path entropy - also known as Maximum Caliber principle -, this work proposes an alternative derivation of the well-known Jarzynski equality, a nonequilibrium identity of great importance today due to its applications to irreversible processes: biological systems (protein folding), mechanical systems, among others. This equality relates the free energy differences between two equilibrium thermodynamic states with the work performed when going between those states, through an average over a path ensemble. In this work the analysis of Jarzynski's equality will be performed using the formalism of inference over path space. This derivation highlights the wide generality of Jarzynski's original result, which could even be used in non-thermodynamical settings such as social systems, financial and ecological systems.

Comparison of spatiotemporal prediction models of daily exposure of individuals to ambient nitrogen dioxide and ozone in Montreal, Canada.

PubMed

Buteau, Stephane; Hatzopoulou, Marianne; Crouse, Dan L; Smargiassi, Audrey; Burnett, Richard T; Logan, Travis; Cavellin, Laure Deville; Goldberg, Mark S

2017-07-01

In previous studies investigating the short-term health effects of ambient air pollution the exposure metric that is often used is the daily average across monitors, thus assuming that all individuals have the same daily exposure. Studies that incorporate space-time exposures of individuals are essential to further our understanding of the short-term health effects of ambient air pollution. As part of a longitudinal cohort study of the acute effects of air pollution that incorporated subject-specific information and medical histories of subjects throughout the follow-up, the purpose of this study was to develop and compare different prediction models using data from fixed-site monitors and other monitoring campaigns to estimate daily, spatially-resolved concentrations of ozone (O 3 ) and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) of participants' residences in Montreal, 1991-2002. We used the following methods to predict spatially-resolved daily concentrations of O 3 and NO 2 for each geographic region in Montreal (defined by three-character postal code areas): (1) assigning concentrations from the nearest monitor; (2) spatial interpolation using inverse-distance weighting; (3) back-extrapolation from a land-use regression model from a dense monitoring survey, and; (4) a combination of a land-use and Bayesian maximum entropy model. We used a variety of indices of agreement to compare estimates of exposure assigned from the different methods, notably scatterplots of pairwise predictions, distribution of differences and computation of the absolute agreement intraclass correlation (ICC). For each pairwise prediction, we also produced maps of the ICCs by these regions indicating the spatial variability in the degree of agreement. We found some substantial differences in agreement across pairs of methods in daily mean predicted concentrations of O 3 and NO 2 . On a given day and postal code area the difference in the concentration assigned could be as high as 131ppb for O 3 and 108ppb for NO 2 . For both pollutants, better agreement was found between predictions from the nearest monitor and the inverse-distance weighting interpolation methods, with ICCs of 0.89 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.89, 0.89) for O 3 and 0.81 (95%CI: 0.80, 0.81) for NO 2 , respectively. For this pair of methods the maximum difference on a given day and postal code area was 36ppb for O 3 and 74ppb for NO 2 . The back-extrapolation method showed a higher degree of disagreement with the nearest monitor approach, inverse-distance weighting interpolation, and the Bayesian maximum entropy model, which were strongly constrained by the sparse monitoring network. The maps showed that the patterns of agreement differed across the postal code areas and the variability depended on the pair of methods compared and the pollutants. For O 3 , but not NO 2 , postal areas showing greater disagreement were mostly located near the city centre and along highways, especially in maps involving the back-extrapolation method. In view of the substantial differences in daily concentrations of O 3 and NO 2 predicted by the different methods, we suggest that analyses of the health effects from air pollution should make use of multiple exposure assessment methods. Although we cannot make any recommendations as to which is the most valid method, models that make use of higher spatially resolved data, such as from dense exposure surveys or from high spatial resolution satellite data, likely provide the most valid estimates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

High resolution schemes and the entropy condition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Osher, S.; Chakravarthy, S.

1983-01-01

A systematic procedure for constructing semidiscrete, second order accurate, variation diminishing, five point band width, approximations to scalar conservation laws, is presented. These schemes are constructed to also satisfy a single discrete entropy inequality. Thus, in the convex flux case, convergence is proven to be the unique physically correct solution. For hyperbolic systems of conservation laws, this construction is used formally to extend the first author's first order accurate scheme, and show (under some minor technical hypotheses) that limit solutions satisfy an entropy inequality. Results concerning discrete shocks, a maximum principle, and maximal order of accuracy are obtained. Numerical applications are also presented.

A basic introduction to the thermodynamics of the Earth system far from equilibrium and maximum entropy production

PubMed Central

Kleidon, A.

2010-01-01

The Earth system is remarkably different from its planetary neighbours in that it shows pronounced, strong global cycling of matter. These global cycles result in the maintenance of a unique thermodynamic state of the Earth's atmosphere which is far from thermodynamic equilibrium (TE). Here, I provide a simple introduction of the thermodynamic basis to understand why Earth system processes operate so far away from TE. I use a simple toy model to illustrate the application of non-equilibrium thermodynamics and to classify applications of the proposed principle of maximum entropy production (MEP) to such processes into three different cases of contrasting flexibility in the boundary conditions. I then provide a brief overview of the different processes within the Earth system that produce entropy, review actual examples of MEP in environmental and ecological systems, and discuss the role of interactions among dissipative processes in making boundary conditions more flexible. I close with a brief summary and conclusion. PMID:20368248

A basic introduction to the thermodynamics of the Earth system far from equilibrium and maximum entropy production.

PubMed

Kleidon, A

2010-05-12

The Earth system is remarkably different from its planetary neighbours in that it shows pronounced, strong global cycling of matter. These global cycles result in the maintenance of a unique thermodynamic state of the Earth's atmosphere which is far from thermodynamic equilibrium (TE). Here, I provide a simple introduction of the thermodynamic basis to understand why Earth system processes operate so far away from TE. I use a simple toy model to illustrate the application of non-equilibrium thermodynamics and to classify applications of the proposed principle of maximum entropy production (MEP) to such processes into three different cases of contrasting flexibility in the boundary conditions. I then provide a brief overview of the different processes within the Earth system that produce entropy, review actual examples of MEP in environmental and ecological systems, and discuss the role of interactions among dissipative processes in making boundary conditions more flexible. I close with a brief summary and conclusion.

An entropy-based method for determining the flow depth distribution in natural channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moramarco, Tommaso; Corato, Giovanni; Melone, Florisa; Singh, Vijay P.

2013-08-01

A methodology for determining the bathymetry of river cross-sections during floods by the sampling of surface flow velocity and existing low flow hydraulic data is developed . Similar to Chiu (1988) who proposed an entropy-based velocity distribution, the flow depth distribution in a cross-section of a natural channel is derived by entropy maximization. The depth distribution depends on one parameter, whose estimate is straightforward, and on the maximum flow depth. Applying to a velocity data set of five river gage sites, the method modeled the flow area observed during flow measurements and accurately assessed the corresponding discharge by coupling the flow depth distribution and the entropic relation between mean velocity and maximum velocity. The methodology unfolds a new perspective for flow monitoring by remote sensing, considering that the two main quantities on which the methodology is based, i.e., surface flow velocity and flow depth, might be potentially sensed by new sensors operating aboard an aircraft or satellite.

Principle of maximum entropy for reliability analysis in the design of machine components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yimin

2018-03-01

We studied the reliability of machine components with parameters that follow an arbitrary statistical distribution using the principle of maximum entropy (PME). We used PME to select the statistical distribution that best fits the available information. We also established a probability density function (PDF) and a failure probability model for the parameters of mechanical components using the concept of entropy and the PME. We obtained the first four moments of the state function for reliability analysis and design. Furthermore, we attained an estimate of the PDF with the fewest human bias factors using the PME. This function was used to calculate the reliability of the machine components, including a connecting rod, a vehicle half-shaft, a front axle, a rear axle housing, and a leaf spring, which have parameters that typically follow a non-normal distribution. Simulations were conducted for comparison. This study provides a design methodology for the reliability of mechanical components for practical engineering projects.

A secure image encryption method based on dynamic harmony search (DHS) combined with chaotic map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirzaei Talarposhti, Khadijeh; Khaki Jamei, Mehrzad

2016-06-01

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in the security of digital images. This study focuses on the gray scale image encryption using dynamic harmony search (DHS). In this research, first, a chaotic map is used to create cipher images, and then the maximum entropy and minimum correlation coefficient is obtained by applying a harmony search algorithm on them. This process is divided into two steps. In the first step, the diffusion of a plain image using DHS to maximize the entropy as a fitness function will be performed. However, in the second step, a horizontal and vertical permutation will be applied on the best cipher image, which is obtained in the previous step. Additionally, DHS has been used to minimize the correlation coefficient as a fitness function in the second step. The simulation results have shown that by using the proposed method, the maximum entropy and the minimum correlation coefficient, which are approximately 7.9998 and 0.0001, respectively, have been obtained.

A maximum entropy thermodynamics of small systems.

PubMed

Dixit, Purushottam D

2013-05-14

We present a maximum entropy approach to analyze the state space of a small system in contact with a large bath, e.g., a solvated macromolecular system. For the solute, the fluctuations around the mean values of observables are not negligible and the probability distribution P(r) of the state space depends on the intricate details of the interaction of the solute with the solvent. Here, we employ a superstatistical approach: P(r) is expressed as a marginal distribution summed over the variation in β, the inverse temperature of the solute. The joint distribution P(β, r) is estimated by maximizing its entropy. We also calculate the first order system-size corrections to the canonical ensemble description of the state space. We test the development on a simple harmonic oscillator interacting with two baths with very different chemical identities, viz., (a) Lennard-Jones particles and (b) water molecules. In both cases, our method captures the state space of the oscillator sufficiently well. Future directions and connections with traditional statistical mechanics are discussed.

Statistical mechanics of letters in words

PubMed Central

Stephens, Greg J.; Bialek, William

2013-01-01

We consider words as a network of interacting letters, and approximate the probability distribution of states taken on by this network. Despite the intuition that the rules of English spelling are highly combinatorial and arbitrary, we find that maximum entropy models consistent with pairwise correlations among letters provide a surprisingly good approximation to the full statistics of words, capturing ~92% of the multi-information in four-letter words and even “discovering” words that were not represented in the data. These maximum entropy models incorporate letter interactions through a set of pairwise potentials and thus define an energy landscape on the space of possible words. Guided by the large letter redundancy we seek a lower-dimensional encoding of the letter distribution and show that distinctions between local minima in the landscape account for ~68% of the four-letter entropy. We suggest that these states provide an effective vocabulary which is matched to the frequency of word use and much smaller than the full lexicon. PMID:20866490

Weak scale from the maximum entropy principle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamada, Yuta; Kawai, Hikaru; Kawana, Kiyoharu

2015-03-01

The theory of the multiverse and wormholes suggests that the parameters of the Standard Model (SM) are fixed in such a way that the radiation of the S3 universe at the final stage S_rad becomes maximum, which we call the maximum entropy principle. Although it is difficult to confirm this principle generally, for a few parameters of the SM, we can check whether S_rad actually becomes maximum at the observed values. In this paper, we regard S_rad at the final stage as a function of the weak scale (the Higgs expectation value) vh, and show that it becomes maximum around vh = {{O}} (300 GeV) when the dimensionless couplings in the SM, i.e., the Higgs self-coupling, the gauge couplings, and the Yukawa couplings are fixed. Roughly speaking, we find that the weak scale is given by vh ˜ T_{BBN}2 / (M_{pl}ye5), where ye is the Yukawa coupling of electron, T_BBN is the temperature at which the Big Bang nucleosynthesis starts, and M_pl is the Planck mass.

Prediction of Metabolite Concentrations, Rate Constants and Post-Translational Regulation Using Maximum Entropy-Based Simulations with Application to Central Metabolism of Neurospora crassa

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cannon, William; Zucker, Jeremy; Baxter, Douglas

We report the application of a recently proposed approach for modeling biological systems using a maximum entropy production rate principle in lieu of having in vivo rate constants. The method is applied in four steps: (1) a new ODE-based optimization approach based on Marcelin’s 1910 mass action equation is used to obtain the maximum entropy distribution, (2) the predicted metabolite concentrations are compared to those generally expected from experiment using a loss function from which post-translational regulation of enzymes is inferred, (3) the system is re-optimized with the inferred regulation from which rate constants are determined from the metabolite concentrationsmore » and reaction fluxes, and finally (4) a full ODE-based, mass action simulation with rate parameters and allosteric regulation is obtained. From the last step, the power characteristics and resistance of each reaction can be determined. The method is applied to the central metabolism of Neurospora crassa and the flow of material through the three competing pathways of upper glycolysis, the non-oxidative pentose phosphate pathway, and the oxidative pentose phosphate pathway are evaluated as a function of the NADP/NADPH ratio. It is predicted that regulation of phosphofructokinase (PFK) and flow through the pentose phosphate pathway are essential for preventing an extreme level of fructose 1, 6-bisphophate accumulation. Such an extreme level of fructose 1,6-bisphophate would otherwise result in a glassy cytoplasm with limited diffusion, dramatically decreasing the entropy and energy production rate and, consequently, biological competitiveness.« less

Single-particle spectral density of the unitary Fermi gas: Novel approach based on the operator product expansion, sum rules and the maximum entropy method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gubler, Philipp, E-mail: pgubler@riken.jp; RIKEN Nishina Center, Wako, Saitama 351-0198; Yamamoto, Naoki

2015-05-15

Making use of the operator product expansion, we derive a general class of sum rules for the imaginary part of the single-particle self-energy of the unitary Fermi gas. The sum rules are analyzed numerically with the help of the maximum entropy method, which allows us to extract the single-particle spectral density as a function of both energy and momentum. These spectral densities contain basic information on the properties of the unitary Fermi gas, such as the dispersion relation and the superfluid pairing gap, for which we obtain reasonable agreement with the available results based on quantum Monte-Carlo simulations.

A probability space for quantum models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemmens, L. F.

2017-06-01

A probability space contains a set of outcomes, a collection of events formed by subsets of the set of outcomes and probabilities defined for all events. A reformulation in terms of propositions allows to use the maximum entropy method to assign the probabilities taking some constraints into account. The construction of a probability space for quantum models is determined by the choice of propositions, choosing the constraints and making the probability assignment by the maximum entropy method. This approach shows, how typical quantum distributions such as Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein are partly related with well-known classical distributions. The relation between the conditional probability density, given some averages as constraints and the appropriate ensemble is elucidated.

Learning probability distributions from smooth observables and the maximum entropy principle: some remarks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obuchi, Tomoyuki; Monasson, Rémi

2015-09-01

The maximum entropy principle (MEP) is a very useful working hypothesis in a wide variety of inference problems, ranging from biological to engineering tasks. To better understand the reasons of the success of MEP, we propose a statistical-mechanical formulation to treat the space of probability distributions constrained by the measures of (experimental) observables. In this paper we first review the results of a detailed analysis of the simplest case of randomly chosen observables. In addition, we investigate by numerical and analytical means the case of smooth observables, which is of practical relevance. Our preliminary results are presented and discussed with respect to the efficiency of the MEP.

The calculation of transport properties in quantum liquids using the maximum entropy numerical analytic continuation method: Application to liquid para-hydrogen

PubMed Central

Rabani, Eran; Reichman, David R.; Krilov, Goran; Berne, Bruce J.

2002-01-01

We present a method based on augmenting an exact relation between a frequency-dependent diffusion constant and the imaginary time velocity autocorrelation function, combined with the maximum entropy numerical analytic continuation approach to study transport properties in quantum liquids. The method is applied to the case of liquid para-hydrogen at two thermodynamic state points: a liquid near the triple point and a high-temperature liquid. Good agreement for the self-diffusion constant and for the real-time velocity autocorrelation function is obtained in comparison to experimental measurements and other theoretical predictions. Improvement of the methodology and future applications are discussed. PMID:11830656

Maximum entropy production, carbon assimilation, and the spatial organization of vegetation in river basins

PubMed Central

del Jesus, Manuel; Foti, Romano; Rinaldo, Andrea; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2012-01-01

The spatial organization of functional vegetation types in river basins is a major determinant of their runoff production, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. The optimization of different objective functions has been suggested to control the adaptive behavior of plants and ecosystems, often without a compelling justification. Maximum entropy production (MEP), rooted in thermodynamics principles, provides a tool to justify the choice of the objective function controlling vegetation organization. The application of MEP at the ecosystem scale results in maximum productivity (i.e., maximum canopy photosynthesis) as the thermodynamic limit toward which the organization of vegetation appears to evolve. Maximum productivity, which incorporates complex hydrologic feedbacks, allows us to reproduce the spatial macroscopic organization of functional types of vegetation in a thoroughly monitored river basin, without the need for a reductionist description of the underlying microscopic dynamics. The methodology incorporates the stochastic characteristics of precipitation and the associated soil moisture on a spatially disaggregated framework. Our results suggest that the spatial organization of functional vegetation types in river basins naturally evolves toward configurations corresponding to dynamically accessible local maxima of the maximum productivity of the ecosystem. PMID:23213227

Identifying topological-band insulator transitions in silicene and other 2D gapped Dirac materials by means of Rényi-Wehrl entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calixto, M.; Romera, E.

2015-02-01

We propose a new method to identify transitions from a topological insulator to a band insulator in silicene (the silicon equivalent of graphene) in the presence of perpendicular magnetic and electric fields, by using the Rényi-Wehrl entropy of the quantum state in phase space. Electron-hole entropies display an inversion/crossing behavior at the charge neutrality point for any Landau level, and the combined entropy of particles plus holes turns out to be maximum at this critical point. The result is interpreted in terms of delocalization of the quantum state in phase space. The entropic description presented in this work will be valid in general 2D gapped Dirac materials, with a strong intrinsic spin-orbit interaction, isostructural with silicene.

Essays on the statistical mechanics of the labor market and implications for the distribution of earned income

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Markus P. A.

This dissertation contributes to two areas in economics: the understanding of the distribution of earned income and to Bayesian analysis of distributional data. Recently, physicists claimed that the distribution of earned income is exponential (see Yakovenko, 2009). The first chapter explores the perspective that the economy is a statistical mechanical system and the implication for labor market outcomes is considered critically. The robustness of the empirical results that lead to the physicists' claims, the significance of the exponential distribution in statistical mechanics, and the case for a conservation law in economics are discussed. The conclusion reached is that physicists' conception of the economy is too narrow even within their chosen framework, but that their overall approach is insightful. The dual labor market theory of segmented labor markets is invoked to understand why the observed distribution may be a mixture of distributional components, corresponding to different generating mechanisms described in Reich et al. (1973). The application of informational entropy in chapter II connects this work to Bayesian analysis and maximum entropy econometrics. The analysis follows E. T. Jaynes's treatment of Wolf's dice data, but is applied to the distribution of earned income based on CPS data. The results are calibrated to account for rounded survey responses using a simple simulation, and answer the graphical analyses by physicists. The results indicate that neither the income distribution of all respondents nor of the subpopulation used by physicists appears to be exponential. The empirics do support the claim that a mixture with exponential and log-normal distributional components ts the data. In the final chapter, a log-linear model is used to fit the exponential to the earned income distribution. Separating the CPS data by gender and marital status reveals that the exponential is only an appropriate model for a limited number of subpopulations, namely the never married and women. The estimated parameter for never-married men's incomes is significantly different from the parameter estimated for never-married women, implying that either the combined distribution is not exponential or that the individual distributions are not exponential. However, it substantiates the existence of a persistent gender income gap among the never-married. References: Reich, M., D. M. Gordon, and R. C. Edwards (1973). A Theory of Labor Market Segmentation. Quarterly Journal of Economics 63, 359-365. Yakovenko, V. M. (2009). Econophysics, Statistical Mechanics Approach to. In R. A. Meyers (Ed.), Encyclopedia of Complexity and System Science. Springer.

Combat Identification of Synthetic Aperture Radar Images Using Contextual Features and Bayesian Belief Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

algorithms. Alternatively, features invariant to aspect and de - pression angles must be found. This research uses simple segmentation algorithms and...FN5 Out of Library SA-8 TZM SA-8 Reload vehicle N 6 N OOL1 BMP-1 Tank w/small turret Y 0 Y OOL2 BTR-70 8-wheeled transport N 8 N OOL3 SA-13 Turret SAMs...the NDEC threshold is established by selecting a user de - fined quantile of class’ entropy distriubtion. During testing, any test exemplar with an

Basic research for the geodynamics program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1986-01-01

Further development of utility program software for analyzing final results of Earth rotation parameter determination from different space geodetic systems was completed. Main simulation experiments were performed. Results and conclusions were compiled. The utilization of range-difference observations in geodynamics is also examined. A method based on the Bayesian philosophy and entropy measure of information is given for the elucidation of time-dependent models of crustal motions as part of a proposed algorithm. The strategy of model discrimination and design of measurements is illustrated in an example for the case of crustal deformation models.

Bayesian Fusion of Color and Texture Segmentations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manduchi, Roberto

2000-01-01

In many applications one would like to use information from both color and texture features in order to segment an image. We propose a novel technique to combine "soft" segmentations computed for two or more features independently. Our algorithm merges models according to a mean entropy criterion, and allows to choose the appropriate number of classes for the final grouping. This technique also allows to improve the quality of supervised classification based on one feature (e.g. color) by merging information from unsupervised segmentation based on another feature (e.g., texture.)

Dual-threshold segmentation using Arimoto entropy based on chaotic bee colony optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Li

2018-03-01

In order to extract target from complex background more quickly and accurately, and to further improve the detection effect of defects, a method of dual-threshold segmentation using Arimoto entropy based on chaotic bee colony optimization was proposed. Firstly, the method of single-threshold selection based on Arimoto entropy was extended to dual-threshold selection in order to separate the target from the background more accurately. Then intermediate variables in formulae of Arimoto entropy dual-threshold selection was calculated by recursion to eliminate redundant computation effectively and to reduce the amount of calculation. Finally, the local search phase of artificial bee colony algorithm was improved by chaotic sequence based on tent mapping. The fast search for two optimal thresholds was achieved using the improved bee colony optimization algorithm, thus the search could be accelerated obviously. A large number of experimental results show that, compared with the existing segmentation methods such as multi-threshold segmentation method using maximum Shannon entropy, two-dimensional Shannon entropy segmentation method, two-dimensional Tsallis gray entropy segmentation method and multi-threshold segmentation method using reciprocal gray entropy, the proposed method can segment target more quickly and accurately with superior segmentation effect. It proves to be an instant and effective method for image segmentation.

On the morphological instability of a bubble during inertia-controlled growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martyushev, L. M.; Birzina, A. I.; Soboleva, A. S.

2018-06-01

The morphological stability of a spherical bubble growing under inertia control is analyzed. Based on the comparison of entropy productions for a distorted and undistorted surface and using the maximum entropy production principle, the morphological instability of the bubble under arbitrary amplitude distortions is shown. This result allows explaining a number of experiments where the surface roughness of bubbles was observed during their explosive-type growth.

Entropy Production in Collisionless Systems. II. Arbitrary Phase-space Occupation Numbers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, Eric I.; Williams, Liliya L. R.

2012-04-01

We present an analysis of two thermodynamic techniques for determining equilibria of self-gravitating systems. One is the Lynden-Bell (LB) entropy maximization analysis that introduced violent relaxation. Since we do not use the Stirling approximation, which is invalid at small occupation numbers, our systems have finite mass, unlike LB's isothermal spheres. (Instead of Stirling, we utilize a very accurate smooth approximation for ln x!.) The second analysis extends entropy production extremization to self-gravitating systems, also without the use of the Stirling approximation. In addition to the LB statistical family characterized by the exclusion principle in phase space, and designed to treat collisionless systems, we also apply the two approaches to the Maxwell-Boltzmann (MB) families, which have no exclusion principle and hence represent collisional systems. We implicitly assume that all of the phase space is equally accessible. We derive entropy production expressions for both families and give the extremum conditions for entropy production. Surprisingly, our analysis indicates that extremizing entropy production rate results in systems that have maximum entropy, in both LB and MB statistics. In other words, both thermodynamic approaches lead to the same equilibrium structures.

Trends in entropy production during ecosystem development in the Amazon Basin.

PubMed

Holdaway, Robert J; Sparrow, Ashley D; Coomes, David A

2010-05-12

Understanding successional trends in energy and matter exchange across the ecosystem-atmosphere boundary layer is an essential focus in ecological research; however, a general theory describing the observed pattern remains elusive. This paper examines whether the principle of maximum entropy production could provide the solution. A general framework is developed for calculating entropy production using data from terrestrial eddy covariance and micrometeorological studies. We apply this framework to data from eight tropical forest and pasture flux sites in the Amazon Basin and show that forest sites had consistently higher entropy production rates than pasture sites (0.461 versus 0.422 W m(-2) K(-1), respectively). It is suggested that during development, changes in canopy structure minimize surface albedo, and development of deeper root systems optimizes access to soil water and thus potential transpiration, resulting in lower surface temperatures and increased entropy production. We discuss our results in the context of a theoretical model of entropy production versus ecosystem developmental stage. We conclude that, although further work is required, entropy production could potentially provide a much-needed theoretical basis for understanding the effects of deforestation and land-use change on the land-surface energy balance.

Prediction of pKa Values for Neutral and Basic Drugs based on Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Methods.

PubMed

Li, Mengshan; Zhang, Huaijing; Chen, Bingsheng; Wu, Yan; Guan, Lixin

2018-03-05

The pKa value of drugs is an important parameter in drug design and pharmacology. In this paper, an improved particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm was proposed based on the population entropy diversity. In the improved algorithm, when the population entropy was higher than the set maximum threshold, the convergence strategy was adopted; when the population entropy was lower than the set minimum threshold the divergence strategy was adopted; when the population entropy was between the maximum and minimum threshold, the self-adaptive adjustment strategy was maintained. The improved PSO algorithm was applied in the training of radial basis function artificial neural network (RBF ANN) model and the selection of molecular descriptors. A quantitative structure-activity relationship model based on RBF ANN trained by the improved PSO algorithm was proposed to predict the pKa values of 74 kinds of neutral and basic drugs and then validated by another database containing 20 molecules. The validation results showed that the model had a good prediction performance. The absolute average relative error, root mean square error, and squared correlation coefficient were 0.3105, 0.0411, and 0.9685, respectively. The model can be used as a reference for exploring other quantitative structure-activity relationships.

On the pH Dependence of the Potential of Maximum Entropy of Ir(111) Electrodes.

PubMed

Ganassin, Alberto; Sebastián, Paula; Climent, Víctor; Schuhmann, Wolfgang; Bandarenka, Aliaksandr S; Feliu, Juan

2017-04-28

Studies over the entropy of components forming the electrode/electrolyte interface can give fundamental insights into the properties of electrified interphases. In particular, the potential where the entropy of formation of the double layer is maximal (potential of maximum entropy, PME) is an important parameter for the characterization of electrochemical systems. Indeed, this parameter determines the majority of electrode processes. In this work, we determine PMEs for Ir(111) electrodes. The latter currently play an important role to understand electrocatalysis for energy provision; and at the same time, iridium is one of the most stable metals against corrosion. For the experiments, we used a combination of the laser induced potential transient to determine the PME, and CO charge-displacement to determine the potentials of zero total charge, (E PZTC ). Both PME and E PZTC were assessed for perchlorate solutions in the pH range from 1 to 4. Surprisingly, we found that those are located in the potential region where the adsorption of hydrogen and hydroxyl species takes place, respectively. The PMEs demonstrated a shift by ~30 mV per a pH unit (in the RHE scale). Connections between the PME and electrocatalytic properties of the electrode surface are discussed.

Selected aspects of prior and likelihood information for a Bayesian classifier in a road safety analysis.

PubMed

Nowakowska, Marzena

2017-04-01

The development of the Bayesian logistic regression model classifying the road accident severity is discussed. The already exploited informative priors (method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation, and two-stage Bayesian updating), along with the original idea of a Boot prior proposal, are investigated when no expert opinion has been available. In addition, two possible approaches to updating the priors, in the form of unbalanced and balanced training data sets, are presented. The obtained logistic Bayesian models are assessed on the basis of a deviance information criterion (DIC), highest probability density (HPD) intervals, and coefficients of variation estimated for the model parameters. The verification of the model accuracy has been based on sensitivity, specificity and the harmonic mean of sensitivity and specificity, all calculated from a test data set. The models obtained from the balanced training data set have a better classification quality than the ones obtained from the unbalanced training data set. The two-stage Bayesian updating prior model and the Boot prior model, both identified with the use of the balanced training data set, outperform the non-informative, method of moments, and maximum likelihood estimation prior models. It is important to note that one should be careful when interpreting the parameters since different priors can lead to different models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing the fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm based on maximum entropy for multitarget tracking in a cluttered environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiao; Li, Yaan; Yu, Jing; Li, Yuxing

2018-01-01

For fast and more effective implementation of tracking multiple targets in a cluttered environment, we propose a multiple targets tracking (MTT) algorithm called maximum entropy fuzzy c-means clustering joint probabilistic data association that combines fuzzy c-means clustering and the joint probabilistic data association (PDA) algorithm. The algorithm uses the membership value to express the probability of the target originating from measurement. The membership value is obtained through fuzzy c-means clustering objective function optimized by the maximum entropy principle. When considering the effect of the public measurement, we use a correction factor to adjust the association probability matrix to estimate the state of the target. As this algorithm avoids confirmation matrix splitting, it can solve the high computational load problem of the joint PDA algorithm. The results of simulations and analysis conducted for tracking neighbor parallel targets and cross targets in a different density cluttered environment show that the proposed algorithm can realize MTT quickly and efficiently in a cluttered environment. Further, the performance of the proposed algorithm remains constant with increasing process noise variance. The proposed algorithm has the advantages of efficiency and low computational load, which can ensure optimum performance when tracking multiple targets in a dense cluttered environment.

Maximum entropy methods for extracting the learned features of deep neural networks.

PubMed

Finnegan, Alex; Song, Jun S

2017-10-01

New architectures of multilayer artificial neural networks and new methods for training them are rapidly revolutionizing the application of machine learning in diverse fields, including business, social science, physical sciences, and biology. Interpreting deep neural networks, however, currently remains elusive, and a critical challenge lies in understanding which meaningful features a network is actually learning. We present a general method for interpreting deep neural networks and extracting network-learned features from input data. We describe our algorithm in the context of biological sequence analysis. Our approach, based on ideas from statistical physics, samples from the maximum entropy distribution over possible sequences, anchored at an input sequence and subject to constraints implied by the empirical function learned by a network. Using our framework, we demonstrate that local transcription factor binding motifs can be identified from a network trained on ChIP-seq data and that nucleosome positioning signals are indeed learned by a network trained on chemical cleavage nucleosome maps. Imposing a further constraint on the maximum entropy distribution also allows us to probe whether a network is learning global sequence features, such as the high GC content in nucleosome-rich regions. This work thus provides valuable mathematical tools for interpreting and extracting learned features from feed-forward neural networks.

Formulating the shear stress distribution in circular open channels based on the Renyi entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khozani, Zohreh Sheikh; Bonakdari, Hossein

2018-01-01

The principle of maximum entropy is employed to derive the shear stress distribution by maximizing the Renyi entropy subject to some constraints and by assuming that dimensionless shear stress is a random variable. A Renyi entropy-based equation can be used to model the shear stress distribution along the entire wetted perimeter of circular channels and circular channels with flat beds and deposited sediments. A wide range of experimental results for 12 hydraulic conditions with different Froude numbers (0.375 to 1.71) and flow depths (20.3 to 201.5 mm) were used to validate the derived shear stress distribution. For circular channels, model performance enhanced with increasing flow depth (mean relative error (RE) of 0.0414) and only deteriorated slightly at the greatest flow depth (RE of 0.0573). For circular channels with flat beds, the Renyi entropy model predicted the shear stress distribution well at lower sediment depth. The Renyi entropy model results were also compared with Shannon entropy model results. Both models performed well for circular channels, but for circular channels with flat beds the Renyi entropy model displayed superior performance in estimating the shear stress distribution. The Renyi entropy model was highly precise and predicted the shear stress distribution in a circular channel with RE of 0.0480 and in a circular channel with a flat bed with RE of 0.0488.

A mechanism producing power law etc. distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Heling; Shen, Hongjun; Yang, Bin

2017-07-01

Power law distribution is playing an increasingly important role in the complex system study. Based on the insolvability of complex systems, the idea of incomplete statistics is utilized and expanded, three different exponential factors are introduced in equations about the normalization condition, statistical average and Shannon entropy, with probability distribution function deduced about exponential function, power function and the product form between power function and exponential function derived from Shannon entropy and maximal entropy principle. So it is shown that maximum entropy principle can totally replace equal probability hypothesis. Owing to the fact that power and probability distribution in the product form between power function and exponential function, which cannot be derived via equal probability hypothesis, can be derived by the aid of maximal entropy principle, it also can be concluded that maximal entropy principle is a basic principle which embodies concepts more extensively and reveals basic principles on motion laws of objects more fundamentally. At the same time, this principle also reveals the intrinsic link between Nature and different objects in human society and principles complied by all.

Statistics of Infima and Stopping Times of Entropy Production and Applications to Active Molecular Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neri, Izaak; Roldán, Édgar; Jülicher, Frank

2017-01-01

We study the statistics of infima, stopping times, and passage probabilities of entropy production in nonequilibrium steady states, and we show that they are universal. We consider two examples of stopping times: first-passage times of entropy production and waiting times of stochastic processes, which are the times when a system reaches a given state for the first time. Our main results are as follows: (i) The distribution of the global infimum of entropy production is exponential with mean equal to minus Boltzmann's constant; (ii) we find exact expressions for the passage probabilities of entropy production; (iii) we derive a fluctuation theorem for stopping-time distributions of entropy production. These results have interesting implications for stochastic processes that can be discussed in simple colloidal systems and in active molecular processes. In particular, we show that the timing and statistics of discrete chemical transitions of molecular processes, such as the steps of molecular motors, are governed by the statistics of entropy production. We also show that the extreme-value statistics of active molecular processes are governed by entropy production; for example, we derive a relation between the maximal excursion of a molecular motor against the direction of an external force and the infimum of the corresponding entropy-production fluctuations. Using this relation, we make predictions for the distribution of the maximum backtrack depth of RNA polymerases, which follow from our universal results for entropy-production infima.

Analyzing small data sets using Bayesian estimation: the case of posttraumatic stress symptoms following mechanical ventilation in burn survivors

PubMed Central

van de Schoot, Rens; Broere, Joris J.; Perryck, Koen H.; Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, Mariëlle; van Loey, Nancy E.

2015-01-01

Background The analysis of small data sets in longitudinal studies can lead to power issues and often suffers from biased parameter values. These issues can be solved by using Bayesian estimation in conjunction with informative prior distributions. By means of a simulation study and an empirical example concerning posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) following mechanical ventilation in burn survivors, we demonstrate the advantages and potential pitfalls of using Bayesian estimation. Methods First, we show how to specify prior distributions and by means of a sensitivity analysis we demonstrate how to check the exact influence of the prior (mis-) specification. Thereafter, we show by means of a simulation the situations in which the Bayesian approach outperforms the default, maximum likelihood and approach. Finally, we re-analyze empirical data on burn survivors which provided preliminary evidence of an aversive influence of a period of mechanical ventilation on the course of PTSS following burns. Results Not suprisingly, maximum likelihood estimation showed insufficient coverage as well as power with very small samples. Only when Bayesian analysis, in conjunction with informative priors, was used power increased to acceptable levels. As expected, we showed that the smaller the sample size the more the results rely on the prior specification. Conclusion We show that two issues often encountered during analysis of small samples, power and biased parameters, can be solved by including prior information into Bayesian analysis. We argue that the use of informative priors should always be reported together with a sensitivity analysis. PMID:25765534

Analyzing small data sets using Bayesian estimation: the case of posttraumatic stress symptoms following mechanical ventilation in burn survivors.

PubMed

van de Schoot, Rens; Broere, Joris J; Perryck, Koen H; Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, Mariëlle; van Loey, Nancy E

2015-01-01

Background : The analysis of small data sets in longitudinal studies can lead to power issues and often suffers from biased parameter values. These issues can be solved by using Bayesian estimation in conjunction with informative prior distributions. By means of a simulation study and an empirical example concerning posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) following mechanical ventilation in burn survivors, we demonstrate the advantages and potential pitfalls of using Bayesian estimation. Methods : First, we show how to specify prior distributions and by means of a sensitivity analysis we demonstrate how to check the exact influence of the prior (mis-) specification. Thereafter, we show by means of a simulation the situations in which the Bayesian approach outperforms the default, maximum likelihood and approach. Finally, we re-analyze empirical data on burn survivors which provided preliminary evidence of an aversive influence of a period of mechanical ventilation on the course of PTSS following burns. Results : Not suprisingly, maximum likelihood estimation showed insufficient coverage as well as power with very small samples. Only when Bayesian analysis, in conjunction with informative priors, was used power increased to acceptable levels. As expected, we showed that the smaller the sample size the more the results rely on the prior specification. Conclusion : We show that two issues often encountered during analysis of small samples, power and biased parameters, can be solved by including prior information into Bayesian analysis. We argue that the use of informative priors should always be reported together with a sensitivity analysis.

Blending Multiple Nitrogen Dioxide Data Sources for Neighborhood Estimates of Long-Term Exposure for Health Research.

PubMed

Hanigan, Ivan C; Williamson, Grant J; Knibbs, Luke D; Horsley, Joshua; Rolfe, Margaret I; Cope, Martin; Barnett, Adrian G; Cowie, Christine T; Heyworth, Jane S; Serre, Marc L; Jalaludin, Bin; Morgan, Geoffrey G

2017-11-07

Exposure to traffic related nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) air pollution is associated with adverse health outcomes. Average pollutant concentrations for fixed monitoring sites are often used to estimate exposures for health studies, however these can be imprecise due to difficulty and cost of spatial modeling at the resolution of neighborhoods (e.g., a scale of tens of meters) rather than at a coarse scale (around several kilometers). The objective of this study was to derive improved estimates of neighborhood NO 2 concentrations by blending measurements with modeled predictions in Sydney, Australia (a low pollution environment). We implemented the Bayesian maximum entropy approach to blend data with uncertainty defined using informative priors. We compiled NO 2 data from fixed-site monitors, chemical transport models, and satellite-based land use regression models to estimate neighborhood annual average NO 2 . The spatial model produced a posterior probability density function of estimated annual average concentrations that spanned an order of magnitude from 3 to 35 ppb. Validation using independent data showed improvement, with root mean squared error improvement of 6% compared with the land use regression model and 16% over the chemical transport model. These estimates will be used in studies of health effects and should minimize misclassification bias.

A comparison of back propagation and Generalized Regression Neural Networks performance in neutron spectrometry.

PubMed

Martínez-Blanco, Ma Del Rosario; Ornelas-Vargas, Gerardo; Solís-Sánchez, Luis Octavio; Castañeda-Miranada, Rodrigo; Vega-Carrillo, Héctor René; Celaya-Padilla, José M; Garza-Veloz, Idalia; Martínez-Fierro, Margarita; Ortiz-Rodríguez, José Manuel

2016-11-01

The process of unfolding the neutron energy spectrum has been subject of research for many years. Monte Carlo, iterative methods, the bayesian theory, the principle of maximum entropy are some of the methods used. The drawbacks associated with traditional unfolding procedures have motivated the research of complementary approaches. Back Propagation Neural Networks (BPNN), have been applied with success in neutron spectrometry and dosimetry domains, however, the structure and learning parameters are factors that highly impact in the networks performance. In ANN domain, Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is one of the simplest neural networks in term of network architecture and learning algorithm. The learning is instantaneous, requiring no time for training. Opposite to BPNN, a GRNN would be formed instantly with just a 1-pass training on the development data. In the network development phase, the only hurdle is to optimize the hyper-parameter, which is known as sigma, governing the smoothness of the network. The aim of this work was to compare the performance of BPNN and GRNN in the solution of the neutron spectrometry problem. From results obtained it can be observed that despite the very similar results, GRNN performs better than BPNN. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons using a mass fraction approach in a geostatistical framework across North Carolina.

PubMed

Reyes, Jeanette M; Hubbard, Heidi F; Stiegel, Matthew A; Pleil, Joachim D; Serre, Marc L

2018-01-09

Currently in the United States there are no regulatory standards for ambient concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), a class of organic compounds with known carcinogenic species. As such, monitoring data are not routinely collected resulting in limited exposure mapping and epidemiologic studies. This work develops the log-mass fraction (LMF) Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) geostatistical prediction method used to predict the concentration of nine particle-bound PAHs across the US state of North Carolina. The LMF method develops a relationship between a relatively small number of collocated PAH and fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) samples collected in 2005 and applies that relationship to a larger number of locations where PM2.5 is routinely monitored to more broadly estimate PAH concentrations across the state. Cross validation and mapping results indicate that by incorporating both PAH and PM2.5 data, the LMF BME method reduces mean squared error by 28.4% and produces more realistic spatial gradients compared to the traditional kriging approach based solely on observed PAH data. The LMF BME method efficiently creates PAH predictions in a PAH data sparse and PM2.5 data rich setting, opening the door for more expansive epidemiologic exposure assessments of ambient PAH.

Nitrate variability in groundwater of North Carolina using monitoring and private well data models.

PubMed

Messier, Kyle P; Kane, Evan; Bolich, Rick; Serre, Marc L

2014-09-16

Nitrate (NO3-) is a widespread contaminant of groundwater and surface water across the United States that has deleterious effects to human and ecological health. This study develops a model for predicting point-level groundwater NO3- at a state scale for monitoring wells and private wells of North Carolina. A land use regression (LUR) model selection procedure is developed for determining nonlinear model explanatory variables when they are known to be correlated. Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) is used to integrate the LUR model to create a LUR-BME model of spatial/temporal varying groundwater NO3- concentrations. LUR-BME results in a leave-one-out cross-validation r2 of 0.74 and 0.33 for monitoring and private wells, effectively predicting within spatial covariance ranges. Results show significant differences in the spatial distribution of groundwater NO3- contamination in monitoring versus private wells; high NO3- concentrations in the southeastern plains of North Carolina; and wastewater treatment residuals and swine confined animal feeding operations as local sources of NO3- in monitoring wells. Results are of interest to agencies that regulate drinking water sources or monitor health outcomes from ingestion of drinking water. Lastly, LUR-BME model estimates can be integrated into surface water models for more accurate management of nonpoint sources of nitrogen.

An LUR/BME framework to estimate PM2.5 explained by on road mobile and stationary sources.

PubMed

Reyes, Jeanette M; Serre, Marc L

2014-01-01

Knowledge of particulate matter concentrations <2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5) across the United States is limited due to sparse monitoring across space and time. Epidemiological studies need accurate exposure estimates in order to properly investigate potential morbidity and mortality. Previous works have used geostatistics and land use regression (LUR) separately to quantify exposure. This work combines both methods by incorporating a large area variability LUR model that accounts for on road mobile emissions and stationary source emissions along with data that take into account incompleteness of PM2.5 monitors into the modern geostatistical Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) framework to estimate PM2.5 across the United States from 1999 to 2009. A cross-validation was done to determine the improvement of the estimate due to the LUR incorporation into BME. These results were applied to known diseases to determine predicted mortality coming from total PM2.5 as well as PM2.5 explained by major contributing sources. This method showed a mean squared error reduction of over 21.89% oversimple kriging. PM2.5 explained by on road mobile emissions and stationary emissions contributed to nearly 568,090 and 306,316 deaths, respectively, across the United States from 1999 to 2007.

Novel approaches for Spatial and Molecular Surveillance of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus (PRRSv) in the United States.

PubMed

Alkhamis, Moh A; Arruda, Andreia G; Morrison, Robert B; Perez, Andres M

2017-06-28

The US swine industry has been impaired over the last 25 years by the far-reaching financial losses caused by the porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS). Here, we explored the relations between the spatial risk of PRRS outbreaks and its phylodynamic history in the U.S during 1998-2016 using ORF5 sequences collected from swine farms in the Midwest region. We used maximum entropy and Bayesian phylodynamic models to generate risk maps for PRRS outbreaks and reconstructed the evolutionary history of three selected phylogenetic clades (A, B and C). High-risk areas for PRRS were best-predicted by pig density and climate seasonality and included Minnesota, Iowa and South Dakota. Phylodynamic models demonstrated that the geographical spread of the three clades followed a heterogeneous spatial diffusion process. Furthermore, PRRS viruses were characterized by typical seasonality in their population size. However, endemic strains were characterized by a substantially slower population growth and evolutionary rates, as well as smaller spatial dispersal rates when compared to emerging strains. We demonstrated the prospects of combining inferences derived from two unique analytical methods to inform decisions related to risk-based interventions of an important pathogen affecting one of the largest food animal industries in the world.

Comparative interpretations of renormalization inversion technique for reconstructing unknown emissions from measured atmospheric concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Sarvesh Kumar; Kumar, Pramod; Rani, Raj; Turbelin, Grégory

2017-04-01

The study highlights a theoretical comparison and various interpretations of a recent inversion technique, called renormalization, developed for the reconstruction of unknown tracer emissions from their measured concentrations. The comparative interpretations are presented in relation to the other inversion techniques based on principle of regularization, Bayesian, minimum norm, maximum entropy on mean, and model resolution optimization. It is shown that the renormalization technique can be interpreted in a similar manner to other techniques, with a practical choice of a priori information and error statistics, while eliminating the need of additional constraints. The study shows that the proposed weight matrix and weighted Gram matrix offer a suitable deterministic choice to the background error and measurement covariance matrices, respectively, in the absence of statistical knowledge about background and measurement errors. The technique is advantageous since it (i) utilizes weights representing a priori information apparent to the monitoring network, (ii) avoids dependence on background source estimates, (iii) improves on alternative choices for the error statistics, (iv) overcomes the colocalization problem in a natural manner, and (v) provides an optimally resolved source reconstruction. A comparative illustration of source retrieval is made by using the real measurements from a continuous point release conducted in Fusion Field Trials, Dugway Proving Ground, Utah.

Model validity and frequency band selection in operational modal analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Au, Siu-Kui

2016-12-01

Experimental modal analysis aims at identifying the modal properties (e.g., natural frequencies, damping ratios, mode shapes) of a structure using vibration measurements. Two basic questions are encountered when operating in the frequency domain: Is there a mode near a particular frequency? If so, how much spectral data near the frequency can be included for modal identification without incurring significant modeling error? For data with high signal-to-noise (s/n) ratios these questions can be addressed using empirical tools such as singular value spectrum. Otherwise they are generally open and can be challenging, e.g., for modes with low s/n ratios or close modes. In this work these questions are addressed using a Bayesian approach. The focus is on operational modal analysis, i.e., with 'output-only' ambient data, where identification uncertainty and modeling error can be significant and their control is most demanding. The approach leads to 'evidence ratios' quantifying the relative plausibility of competing sets of modeling assumptions. The latter involves modeling the 'what-if-not' situation, which is non-trivial but is resolved by systematic consideration of alternative models and using maximum entropy principle. Synthetic and field data are considered to investigate the behavior of evidence ratios and how they should be interpreted in practical applications.

Traffic-related air pollution increased the risk of Parkinson's disease in Taiwan: A nationwide study.

PubMed

Lee, Pei-Chen; Liu, Li-Ling; Sun, Yu; Chen, Yu-An; Liu, Chih-Ching; Li, Chung-Yi; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Ritz, Beate

2016-11-01

Ambient air pollution has been associated with many health conditions, but little is known about its effects on neurodegenerative diseases, such as Parkinson's disease (PD). In this study, we investigated the influence of ambient air pollution on PD in a nationwide population-based case-control study in Taiwan. We identified 11,117 incident PD patients between 2007 and 2009 from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Research Database and selected 44,468 age- and gender-matched population controls from the longitudinal health insurance database. The average ambient pollutant exposure concentrations from 1998 through the onset of PD were estimated using quantile-based Bayesian Maximum Entropy models. Basing from logistic regression models, we estimated the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of ambient pollutant exposures and PD risk. We observed positive associations between NO x , CO exposures, and PD. In multi-pollutant models, for NO x and CO above the 75th percentile exposure compared with the lowest percentile, the ORs of PD were 1.37 (95% CI=1.23-1.52) and 1.17 (95% CI=1.07-1.27), respectively. This study suggests that ambient air pollution exposure, especially from traffic-related pollutants such as NO x and CO, increases PD risk in the Taiwanese population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use and validity of principles of extremum of entropy production in the study of complex systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heitor Reis, A., E-mail: ahr@uevora.pt

2014-07-15

It is shown how both the principles of extremum of entropy production, which are often used in the study of complex systems, follow from the maximization of overall system conductivities, under appropriate constraints. In this way, the maximum rate of entropy production (MEP) occurs when all the forces in the system are kept constant. On the other hand, the minimum rate of entropy production (mEP) occurs when all the currents that cross the system are kept constant. A brief discussion on the validity of the application of the mEP and MEP principles in several cases, and in particular to themore » Earth’s climate is also presented. -- Highlights: •The principles of extremum of entropy production are not first principles. •They result from the maximization of conductivities under appropriate constraints. •The conditions of their validity are set explicitly. •Some long-standing controversies are discussed and clarified.« less

Simultaneous Multi-Scale Diffusion Estimation and Tractography Guided by Entropy Spectrum Pathways

PubMed Central

Galinsky, Vitaly L.; Frank, Lawrence R.

2015-01-01

We have developed a method for the simultaneous estimation of local diffusion and the global fiber tracts based upon the information entropy flow that computes the maximum entropy trajectories between locations and depends upon the global structure of the multi-dimensional and multi-modal diffusion field. Computation of the entropy spectrum pathways requires only solving a simple eigenvector problem for the probability distribution for which efficient numerical routines exist, and a straight forward integration of the probability conservation through ray tracing of the convective modes guided by a global structure of the entropy spectrum coupled with a small scale local diffusion. The intervoxel diffusion is sampled by multi b-shell multi q-angle DWI data expanded in spherical waves. This novel approach to fiber tracking incorporates global information about multiple fiber crossings in every individual voxel and ranks it in the most scientifically rigorous way. This method has potential significance for a wide range of applications, including studies of brain connectivity. PMID:25532167

A model for Entropy Production, Entropy Decrease and Action Minimization in Self-Organization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgiev, Georgi; Chatterjee, Atanu; Vu, Thanh; Iannacchione, Germano

In self-organization energy gradients across complex systems lead to change in the structure of systems, decreasing their internal entropy to ensure the most efficient energy transport and therefore maximum entropy production in the surroundings. This approach stems from fundamental variational principles in physics, such as the principle of least action. It is coupled to the total energy flowing through a system, which leads to increase the action efficiency. We compare energy transport through a fluid cell which has random motion of its molecules, and a cell which can form convection cells. We examine the signs of change of entropy, and the action needed for the motion inside those systems. The system in which convective motion occurs, reduces the time for energy transmission, compared to random motion. For more complex systems, those convection cells form a network of transport channels, for the purpose of obeying the equations of motion in this geometry. Those transport networks are an essential feature of complex systems in biology, ecology, economy and society.

Modelling the spreading rate of controlled communicable epidemics through an entropy-based thermodynamic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, WenBin; Wu, ZiNiu; Wang, ChunFeng; Hu, RuiFeng

2013-11-01

A model based on a thermodynamic approach is proposed for predicting the dynamics of communicable epidemics assumed to be governed by controlling efforts of multiple scales so that an entropy is associated with the system. All the epidemic details are factored into a single and time-dependent coefficient, the functional form of this coefficient is found through four constraints, including notably the existence of an inflexion point and a maximum. The model is solved to give a log-normal distribution for the spread rate, for which a Shannon entropy can be defined. The only parameter, that characterizes the width of the distribution function, is uniquely determined through maximizing the rate of entropy production. This entropy-based thermodynamic (EBT) model predicts the number of hospitalized cases with a reasonable accuracy for SARS in the year 2003. This EBT model can be of use for potential epidemics such as avian influenza and H7N9 in China.

Steepest entropy ascent quantum thermodynamic model of electron and phonon transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Guanchen; von Spakovsky, Michael R.; Hin, Celine

2018-01-01

An advanced nonequilibrium thermodynamic model for electron and phonon transport is formulated based on the steepest-entropy-ascent quantum thermodynamics framework. This framework, based on the principle of steepest entropy ascent (or the equivalent maximum entropy production principle), inherently satisfies the laws of thermodynamics and mechanics and is applicable at all temporal and spatial scales even in the far-from-equilibrium realm. Specifically, the model is proven to recover the Boltzmann transport equations in the near-equilibrium limit and the two-temperature model of electron-phonon coupling when no dispersion is assumed. The heat and mass transport at a temperature discontinuity across a homogeneous interface where the dispersion and coupling of electron and phonon transport are both considered are then modeled. Local nonequilibrium system evolution and nonquasiequilibrium interactions are predicted and the results discussed.

Blind source computer device identification from recorded VoIP calls for forensic investigation.

PubMed

Jahanirad, Mehdi; Anuar, Nor Badrul; Wahab, Ainuddin Wahid Abdul

2017-03-01

The VoIP services provide fertile ground for criminal activity, thus identifying the transmitting computer devices from recorded VoIP call may help the forensic investigator to reveal useful information. It also proves the authenticity of the call recording submitted to the court as evidence. This paper extended the previous study on the use of recorded VoIP call for blind source computer device identification. Although initial results were promising but theoretical reasoning for this is yet to be found. The study suggested computing entropy of mel-frequency cepstrum coefficients (entropy-MFCC) from near-silent segments as an intrinsic feature set that captures the device response function due to the tolerances in the electronic components of individual computer devices. By applying the supervised learning techniques of naïve Bayesian, linear logistic regression, neural networks and support vector machines to the entropy-MFCC features, state-of-the-art identification accuracy of near 99.9% has been achieved on different sets of computer devices for both call recording and microphone recording scenarios. Furthermore, unsupervised learning techniques, including simple k-means, expectation-maximization and density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) provided promising results for call recording dataset by assigning the majority of instances to their correct clusters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantum state estimation when qubits are lost: a no-data-left-behind approach

DOE PAGES

Williams, Brian P.; Lougovski, Pavel

2017-04-06

We present an approach to Bayesian mean estimation of quantum states using hyperspherical parametrization and an experiment-specific likelihood which allows utilization of all available data, even when qubits are lost. With this method, we report the first closed-form Bayesian mean and maximum likelihood estimates for the ideal single qubit. Due to computational constraints, we utilize numerical sampling to determine the Bayesian mean estimate for a photonic two-qubit experiment in which our novel analysis reduces burdens associated with experimental asymmetries and inefficiencies. This method can be applied to quantum states of any dimension and experimental complexity.

Estimation for coefficient of variation of an extension of the exponential distribution under type-II censoring scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakoban, Rana A.

2017-08-01

The coefficient of variation [CV] has several applications in applied statistics. So in this paper, we adopt Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches for the estimation of CV under type-II censored data from extension exponential distribution [EED]. The point and interval estimate of the CV are obtained for each of the maximum likelihood and parametric bootstrap techniques. Also the Bayesian approach with the help of MCMC method is presented. A real data set is presented and analyzed, hence the obtained results are used to assess the obtained theoretical results.

Conserved actions, maximum entropy and dark matter haloes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pontzen, Andrew; Governato, Fabio

2013-03-01

We use maximum entropy arguments to derive the phase-space distribution of a virialized dark matter halo. Our distribution function gives an improved representation of the end product of violent relaxation. This is achieved by incorporating physically motivated dynamical constraints (specifically on orbital actions) which prevent arbitrary redistribution of energy. We compare the predictions with three high-resolution dark matter simulations of widely varying mass. The numerical distribution function is accurately predicted by our argument, producing an excellent match for the vast majority of particles. The remaining particles constitute the central cusp of the halo (≲4 per cent of the dark matter). They can be accounted for within the presented framework once the short dynamical time-scales of the centre are taken into account.

Optimal protocol for maximum work extraction in a feedback process with a time-varying potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Chulan

2017-12-01

The nonequilibrium nature of information thermodynamics is characterized by the inequality or non-negativity of the total entropy change of the system, memory, and reservoir. Mutual information change plays a crucial role in the inequality, in particular if work is extracted and the paradox of Maxwell's demon is raised. We consider the Brownian information engine where the protocol set of the harmonic potential is initially chosen by the measurement and varies in time. We confirm the inequality of the total entropy change by calculating, in detail, the entropic terms including the mutual information change. We rigorously find the optimal values of the time-dependent protocol for maximum extraction of work both for the finite-time and the quasi-static process.

LIBOR troubles: Anomalous movements detection based on maximum entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bariviera, Aurelio F.; Martín, María T.; Plastino, Angelo; Vampa, Victoria

2016-05-01

According to the definition of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), contributing banks should give fair estimates of their own borrowing costs in the interbank market. Between 2007 and 2009, several banks made inappropriate submissions of LIBOR, sometimes motivated by profit-seeking from their trading positions. In 2012, several newspapers' articles began to cast doubt on LIBOR integrity, leading surveillance authorities to conduct investigations on banks' behavior. Such procedures resulted in severe fines imposed to involved banks, who recognized their financial inappropriate conduct. In this paper, we uncover such unfair behavior by using a forecasting method based on the Maximum Entropy principle. Our results are robust against changes in parameter settings and could be of great help for market surveillance.

Maximum entropy modeling of metabolic networks by constraining growth-rate moments predicts coexistence of phenotypes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Martino, Daniele

2017-12-01

In this work maximum entropy distributions in the space of steady states of metabolic networks are considered upon constraining the first and second moments of the growth rate. Coexistence of fast and slow phenotypes, with bimodal flux distributions, emerges upon considering control on the average growth (optimization) and its fluctuations (heterogeneity). This is applied to the carbon catabolic core of Escherichia coli where it quantifies the metabolic activity of slow growing phenotypes and it provides a quantitative map with metabolic fluxes, opening the possibility to detect coexistence from flux data. A preliminary analysis on data for E. coli cultures in standard conditions shows degeneracy for the inferred parameters that extend in the coexistence region.

An understanding of human dynamics in urban subway traffic from the Maximum Entropy Principle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yong, Nuo; Ni, Shunjiang; Shen, Shifei; Ji, Xuewei

2016-08-01

We studied the distribution of entry time interval in Beijing subway traffic by analyzing the smart card transaction data, and then deduced the probability distribution function of entry time interval based on the Maximum Entropy Principle. Both theoretical derivation and data statistics indicated that the entry time interval obeys power-law distribution with an exponential cutoff. In addition, we pointed out the constraint conditions for the distribution form and discussed how the constraints affect the distribution function. It is speculated that for bursts and heavy tails in human dynamics, when the fitted power exponent is less than 1.0, it cannot be a pure power-law distribution, but with an exponential cutoff, which may be ignored in the previous studies.

Phylogenetically marking the limits of the genus Fusarium for post-Article 59 usage

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Fusarium (Hypocreales, Nectriaceae) is one of the most important and systematically challenging groups of mycotoxigenic, plant pathogenic, and human pathogenic fungi. We conducted maximum likelihood (ML), maximum parsimony (MP) and Bayesian (B) analyses on partial nucleotide sequences of genes encod...

Convex foundations for generalized MaxEnt models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frongillo, Rafael; Reid, Mark D.

2014-12-01

We present an approach to maximum entropy models that highlights the convex geometry and duality of generalized exponential families (GEFs) and their connection to Bregman divergences. Using our framework, we are able to resolve a puzzling aspect of the bijection of Banerjee and coauthors between classical exponential families and what they call regular Bregman divergences. Their regularity condition rules out all but Bregman divergences generated from log-convex generators. We recover their bijection and show that a much broader class of divergences correspond to GEFs via two key observations: 1) Like classical exponential families, GEFs have a "cumulant" C whose subdifferential contains the mean: Eo˜pθ[φ(o)]∈∂C(θ) ; 2) Generalized relative entropy is a C-Bregman divergence between parameters: DF(pθ,pθ')= D C(θ,θ') , where DF becomes the KL divergence for F = -H. We also show that every incomplete market with cost function C can be expressed as a complete market, where the prices are constrained to be a GEF with cumulant C. This provides an entirely new interpretation of prediction markets, relating their design back to the principle of maximum entropy.

Comparison of image deconvolution algorithms on simulated and laboratory infrared images

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Proctor, D.

1994-11-15

We compare Maximum Likelihood, Maximum Entropy, Accelerated Lucy-Richardson, Weighted Goodness of Fit, and Pixon reconstructions of simple scenes as a function of signal-to-noise ratio for simulated images with randomly generated noise. Reconstruction results of infrared images taken with the TAISIR (Temperature and Imaging System InfraRed) are also discussed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

La Russa, D

Purpose: The purpose of this project is to develop a robust method of parameter estimation for a Poisson-based TCP model using Bayesian inference. Methods: Bayesian inference was performed using the PyMC3 probabilistic programming framework written in Python. A Poisson-based TCP regression model that accounts for clonogen proliferation was fit to observed rates of local relapse as a function of equivalent dose in 2 Gy fractions for a population of 623 stage-I non-small-cell lung cancer patients. The Slice Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm was used to sample the posterior distributions, and was initiated using the maximum of the posterior distributionsmore » found by optimization. The calculation of TCP with each sample step required integration over the free parameter α, which was performed using an adaptive 24-point Gauss-Legendre quadrature. Convergence was verified via inspection of the trace plot and posterior distribution for each of the fit parameters, as well as with comparisons of the most probable parameter values with their respective maximum likelihood estimates. Results: Posterior distributions for α, the standard deviation of α (σ), the average tumour cell-doubling time (Td), and the repopulation delay time (Tk), were generated assuming α/β = 10 Gy, and a fixed clonogen density of 10{sup 7} cm−{sup 3}. Posterior predictive plots generated from samples from these posterior distributions are in excellent agreement with the observed rates of local relapse used in the Bayesian inference. The most probable values of the model parameters also agree well with maximum likelihood estimates. Conclusion: A robust method of performing Bayesian inference of TCP data using a complex TCP model has been established.« less

[Quantitative assessment of urban ecosystem services flow based on entropy theory: A case study of Beijing, China].

PubMed

Li, Jing Xin; Yang, Li; Yang, Lei; Zhang, Chao; Huo, Zhao Min; Chen, Min Hao; Luan, Xiao Feng

2018-03-01

Quantitative evaluation of ecosystem service is a primary premise for rational resources exploitation and sustainable development. Examining ecosystem services flow provides a scientific method to quantity ecosystem services. We built an assessment indicator system based on land cover/land use under the framework of four types of ecosystem services. The types of ecosystem services flow were reclassified. Using entropy theory, disorder degree and developing trend of indicators and urban ecosystem were quantitatively assessed. Beijing was chosen as the study area, and twenty-four indicators were selected for evaluation. The results showed that the entropy value of Beijing urban ecosystem during 2004 to 2015 was 0.794 and the entropy flow was -0.024, suggesting a large disordered degree and near verge of non-health. The system got maximum values for three times, while the mean annual variation of the system entropy value increased gradually in three periods, indicating that human activities had negative effects on urban ecosystem. Entropy flow reached minimum value in 2007, implying the environmental quality was the best in 2007. The determination coefficient for the fitting function of total permanent population in Beijing and urban ecosystem entropy flow was 0.921, indicating that urban ecosystem health was highly correlated with total permanent population.

A Theoretical Basis for Entropy-Scaling Effects in Human Mobility Patterns.

PubMed

Osgood, Nathaniel D; Paul, Tuhin; Stanley, Kevin G; Qian, Weicheng

2016-01-01

Characterizing how people move through space has been an important component of many disciplines. With the advent of automated data collection through GPS and other location sensing systems, researchers have the opportunity to examine human mobility at spatio-temporal resolution heretofore impossible. However, the copious and complex data collected through these logging systems can be difficult for humans to fully exploit, leading many researchers to propose novel metrics for encapsulating movement patterns in succinct and useful ways. A particularly salient proposed metric is the mobility entropy rate of the string representing the sequence of locations visited by an individual. However, mobility entropy rate is not scale invariant: entropy rate calculations based on measurements of the same trajectory at varying spatial or temporal granularity do not yield the same value, limiting the utility of mobility entropy rate as a metric by confounding inter-experimental comparisons. In this paper, we derive a scaling relationship for mobility entropy rate of non-repeating straight line paths from the definition of Lempel-Ziv compression. We show that the resulting formulation predicts the scaling behavior of simulated mobility traces, and provides an upper bound on mobility entropy rate under certain assumptions. We further show that this formulation has a maximum value for a particular sampling rate, implying that optimal sampling rates for particular movement patterns exist.

Iterative Assessment of Statistically-Oriented and Standard Algorithms for Determining Muscle Onset with Intramuscular Electromyography.

PubMed

Tenan, Matthew S; Tweedell, Andrew J; Haynes, Courtney A

2017-12-01

The onset of muscle activity, as measured by electromyography (EMG), is a commonly applied metric in biomechanics. Intramuscular EMG is often used to examine deep musculature and there are currently no studies examining the effectiveness of algorithms for intramuscular EMG onset. The present study examines standard surface EMG onset algorithms (linear envelope, Teager-Kaiser Energy Operator, and sample entropy) and novel algorithms (time series mean-variance analysis, sequential/batch processing with parametric and nonparametric methods, and Bayesian changepoint analysis). Thirteen male and 5 female subjects had intramuscular EMG collected during isolated biceps brachii and vastus lateralis contractions, resulting in 103 trials. EMG onset was visually determined twice by 3 blinded reviewers. Since the reliability of visual onset was high (ICC (1,1) : 0.92), the mean of the 6 visual assessments was contrasted with the algorithmic approaches. Poorly performing algorithms were stepwise eliminated via (1) root mean square error analysis, (2) algorithm failure to identify onset/premature onset, (3) linear regression analysis, and (4) Bland-Altman plots. The top performing algorithms were all based on Bayesian changepoint analysis of rectified EMG and were statistically indistinguishable from visual analysis. Bayesian changepoint analysis has the potential to produce more reliable, accurate, and objective intramuscular EMG onset results than standard methodologies.

Research on Sustainable Development Level Evaluation of Resource-based Cities Based on Shapely Entropy and Chouqet Integral

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Hui; Qu, Weilu; Qiu, Weiting

2018-03-01

In order to evaluate sustainable development level of resource-based cities, an evaluation method with Shapely entropy and Choquet integral is proposed. First of all, a systematic index system is constructed, the importance of each attribute is calculated based on the maximum Shapely entropy principle, and then the Choquet integral is introduced to calculate the comprehensive evaluation value of each city from the bottom up, finally apply this method to 10 typical resource-based cities in China. The empirical results show that the evaluation method is scientific and reasonable, which provides theoretical support for the sustainable development path and reform direction of resource-based cities.

Measuring Questions: Relevance and its Relation to Entropy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knuth, Kevin H.

2004-01-01

The Boolean lattice of logical statements induces the free distributive lattice of questions. Inclusion on this lattice is based on whether one question answers another. Generalizing the zeta function of the question lattice leads to a valuation called relevance or bearing, which is a measure of the degree to which one question answers another. Richard Cox conjectured that this degree can be expressed as a generalized entropy. With the assistance of yet another important result from Janos Acz6l, I show that this is indeed the case; and that the resulting inquiry calculus is a natural generalization of information theory. This approach provides a new perspective of the Principle of Maximum Entropy.

Implementing informative priors for heterogeneity in meta-analysis using meta-regression and pseudo data.

PubMed

Rhodes, Kirsty M; Turner, Rebecca M; White, Ian R; Jackson, Dan; Spiegelhalter, David J; Higgins, Julian P T

2016-12-20

Many meta-analyses combine results from only a small number of studies, a situation in which the between-study variance is imprecisely estimated when standard methods are applied. Bayesian meta-analysis allows incorporation of external evidence on heterogeneity, providing the potential for more robust inference on the effect size of interest. We present a method for performing Bayesian meta-analysis using data augmentation, in which we represent an informative conjugate prior for between-study variance by pseudo data and use meta-regression for estimation. To assist in this, we derive predictive inverse-gamma distributions for the between-study variance expected in future meta-analyses. These may serve as priors for heterogeneity in new meta-analyses. In a simulation study, we compare approximate Bayesian methods using meta-regression and pseudo data against fully Bayesian approaches based on importance sampling techniques and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We compare the frequentist properties of these Bayesian methods with those of the commonly used frequentist DerSimonian and Laird procedure. The method is implemented in standard statistical software and provides a less complex alternative to standard MCMC approaches. An importance sampling approach produces almost identical results to standard MCMC approaches, and results obtained through meta-regression and pseudo data are very similar. On average, data augmentation provides closer results to MCMC, if implemented using restricted maximum likelihood estimation rather than DerSimonian and Laird or maximum likelihood estimation. The methods are applied to real datasets, and an extension to network meta-analysis is described. The proposed method facilitates Bayesian meta-analysis in a way that is accessible to applied researchers. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Efficient algorithms and implementations of entropy-based moment closures for rarefied gases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaerer, Roman Pascal; Bansal, Pratyuksh; Torrilhon, Manuel

2017-07-01

We present efficient algorithms and implementations of the 35-moment system equipped with the maximum-entropy closure in the context of rarefied gases. While closures based on the principle of entropy maximization have been shown to yield very promising results for moderately rarefied gas flows, the computational cost of these closures is in general much higher than for closure theories with explicit closed-form expressions of the closing fluxes, such as Grad's classical closure. Following a similar approach as Garrett et al. (2015) [13], we investigate efficient implementations of the computationally expensive numerical quadrature method used for the moment evaluations of the maximum-entropy distribution by exploiting its inherent fine-grained parallelism with the parallelism offered by multi-core processors and graphics cards. We show that using a single graphics card as an accelerator allows speed-ups of two orders of magnitude when compared to a serial CPU implementation. To accelerate the time-to-solution for steady-state problems, we propose a new semi-implicit time discretization scheme. The resulting nonlinear system of equations is solved with a Newton type method in the Lagrange multipliers of the dual optimization problem in order to reduce the computational cost. Additionally, fully explicit time-stepping schemes of first and second order accuracy are presented. We investigate the accuracy and efficiency of the numerical schemes for several numerical test cases, including a steady-state shock-structure problem.

Estimation of depth to magnetic source using maximum entropy power spectra, with application to the Peru-Chile Trench

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blakely, Richard J.

1981-01-01

Estimations of the depth to magnetic sources using the power spectrum of magnetic anomalies generally require long magnetic profiles. The method developed here uses the maximum entropy power spectrum (MEPS) to calculate depth to source on short windows of magnetic data; resolution is thereby improved. The method operates by dividing a profile into overlapping windows, calculating a maximum entropy power spectrum for each window, linearizing the spectra, and calculating with least squares the various depth estimates. The assumptions of the method are that the source is two dimensional and that the intensity of magnetization includes random noise; knowledge of the direction of magnetization is not required. The method is applied to synthetic data and to observed marine anomalies over the Peru-Chile Trench. The analyses indicate a continuous magnetic basement extending from the eastern margin of the Nazca plate and into the subduction zone. The computed basement depths agree with acoustic basement seaward of the trench axis, but deepen as the plate approaches the inner trench wall. This apparent increase in the computed depths may result from the deterioration of magnetization in the upper part of the ocean crust, possibly caused by compressional disruption of the basaltic layer. Landward of the trench axis, the depth estimates indicate possible thrusting of the oceanic material into the lower slope of the continental margin.

Multiple Diffusion Mechanisms Due to Nanostructuring in Crowded Environments

PubMed Central

Sanabria, Hugo; Kubota, Yoshihisa; Waxham, M. Neal

2007-01-01

One of the key questions regarding intracellular diffusion is how the environment affects molecular mobility. Mostly, intracellular diffusion has been described as hindered, and the physical reasons for this behavior are: immobile barriers, molecular crowding, and binding interactions with immobile or mobile molecules. Using results from multi-photon fluorescence correlation spectroscopy, we describe how immobile barriers and crowding agents affect translational mobility. To study the hindrance produced by immobile barriers, we used sol-gels (silica nanostructures) that consist of a continuous solid phase and aqueous phase in which fluorescently tagged molecules diffuse. In the case of molecular crowding, translational mobility was assessed in increasing concentrations of 500 kDa dextran solutions. Diffusion of fluorescent tracers in both sol-gels and dextran solutions shows clear evidence of anomalous subdiffusion. In addition, data from the autocorrelation function were analyzed using the maximum entropy method as adapted to fluorescence correlation spectroscopy data and compared with the standard model that incorporates anomalous diffusion. The maximum entropy method revealed evidence of different diffusion mechanisms that had not been revealed using the anomalous diffusion model. These mechanisms likely correspond to nanostructuring in crowded environments and to the relative dimensions of the crowding agent with respect to the tracer molecule. Analysis with the maximum entropy method also revealed information about the degree of heterogeneity in the environment as reported by the behavior of diffusive molecules. PMID:17040979

Possible dynamical explanations for Paltridge's principle of maximum entropy production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Virgo, Nathaniel, E-mail: nathanielvirgo@gmail.com; Ikegami, Takashi, E-mail: nathanielvirgo@gmail.com

2014-12-05

Throughout the history of non-equilibrium thermodynamics a number of theories have been proposed in which complex, far from equilibrium flow systems are hypothesised to reach a steady state that maximises some quantity. Perhaps the most celebrated is Paltridge's principle of maximum entropy production for the horizontal heat flux in Earth's atmosphere, for which there is some empirical support. There have been a number of attempts to derive such a principle from maximum entropy considerations. However, we currently lack a more mechanistic explanation of how any particular system might self-organise into a state that maximises some quantity. This is in contrastmore » to equilibrium thermodynamics, in which models such as the Ising model have been a great help in understanding the relationship between the predictions of MaxEnt and the dynamics of physical systems. In this paper we show that, unlike in the equilibrium case, Paltridge-type maximisation in non-equilibrium systems cannot be achieved by a simple dynamical feedback mechanism. Nevertheless, we propose several possible mechanisms by which maximisation could occur. Showing that these occur in any real system is a task for future work. The possibilities presented here may not be the only ones. We hope that by presenting them we can provoke further discussion about the possible dynamical mechanisms behind extremum principles for non-equilibrium systems, and their relationship to predictions obtained through MaxEnt.« less

Lattice Duality: The Origin of Probability and Entropy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knuth, Kevin H.

2004-01-01

Bayesian probability theory is an inference calculus, which originates from a generalization of inclusion on the Boolean lattice of logical assertions to a degree of inclusion represented by a real number. Dual to this lattice is the distributive lattice of questions constructed from the ordered set of down-sets of assertions, which forms the foundation of the calculus of inquiry-a generalization of information theory. In this paper we introduce this novel perspective on these spaces in which machine learning is performed and discuss the relationship between these results and several proposed generalizations of information theory in the literature.

Population pharmacokinetics and maximum a posteriori probability Bayesian estimator of abacavir: application of individualized therapy in HIV-infected infants and toddlers.

PubMed

Zhao, Wei; Cella, Massimo; Della Pasqua, Oscar; Burger, David; Jacqz-Aigrain, Evelyne

2012-04-01

Abacavir is used to treat HIV infection in both adults and children. The recommended paediatric dose is 8 mg kg(-1) twice daily up to a maximum of 300 mg twice daily. Weight was identified as the central covariate influencing pharmacokinetics of abacavir in children. A population pharmacokinetic model was developed to describe both once and twice daily pharmacokinetic profiles of abacavir in infants and toddlers. Standard dosage regimen is associated with large interindividual variability in abacavir concentrations. A maximum a posteriori probability Bayesian estimator of AUC(0-) (t) based on three time points (0, 1 or 2, and 3 h) is proposed to support area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) targeted individualized therapy in infants and toddlers. To develop a population pharmacokinetic model for abacavir in HIV-infected infants and toddlers, which will be used to describe both once and twice daily pharmacokinetic profiles, identify covariates that explain variability and propose optimal time points to optimize the area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) targeted dosage and individualize therapy. The pharmacokinetics of abacavir was described with plasma concentrations from 23 patients using nonlinear mixed-effects modelling (NONMEM) software. A two-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination was developed. The final model was validated using bootstrap, visual predictive check and normalized prediction distribution errors. The Bayesian estimator was validated using the cross-validation and simulation-estimation method. The typical population pharmacokinetic parameters and relative standard errors (RSE) were apparent systemic clearance (CL) 13.4 () h−1 (RSE 6.3%), apparent central volume of distribution 4.94 () (RSE 28.7%), apparent peripheral volume of distribution 8.12 () (RSE14.2%), apparent intercompartment clearance 1.25 () h−1 (RSE 16.9%) and absorption rate constant 0.758 h−1 (RSE 5.8%). The covariate analysis identified weight as the individual factor influencing the apparent oral clearance: CL = 13.4 × (weight/12)1.14. The maximum a posteriori probability Bayesian estimator, based on three concentrations measured at 0, 1 or 2, and 3 h after drug intake allowed predicting individual AUC0–t. The population pharmacokinetic model developed for abacavir in HIV-infected infants and toddlers accurately described both once and twice daily pharmacokinetic profiles. The maximum a posteriori probability Bayesian estimator of AUC(0-) (t) was developed from the final model and can be used routinely to optimize individual dosing. © 2011 The Authors. British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology © 2011 The British Pharmacological Society.

A maximum entropy reconstruction technique for tomographic particle image velocimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilsky, A. V.; Lozhkin, V. A.; Markovich, D. M.; Tokarev, M. P.

2013-04-01

This paper studies a novel approach for reducing tomographic PIV computational complexity. The proposed approach is an algebraic reconstruction technique, termed MENT (maximum entropy). This technique computes the three-dimensional light intensity distribution several times faster than SMART, using at least ten times less memory. Additionally, the reconstruction quality remains nearly the same as with SMART. This paper presents the theoretical computation performance comparison for MENT, SMART and MART, followed by validation using synthetic particle images. Both the theoretical assessment and validation of synthetic images demonstrate significant computational time reduction. The data processing accuracy of MENT was compared to that of SMART in a slot jet experiment. A comparison of the average velocity profiles shows a high level of agreement between the results obtained with MENT and those obtained with SMART.

Online Robot Dead Reckoning Localization Using Maximum Relative Entropy Optimization With Model Constraints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Urniezius, Renaldas

2011-03-14

The principle of Maximum relative Entropy optimization was analyzed for dead reckoning localization of a rigid body when observation data of two attached accelerometers was collected. Model constraints were derived from the relationships between the sensors. The experiment's results confirmed that accelerometers each axis' noise can be successfully filtered utilizing dependency between channels and the dependency between time series data. Dependency between channels was used for a priori calculation, and a posteriori distribution was derived utilizing dependency between time series data. There was revisited data of autocalibration experiment by removing the initial assumption that instantaneous rotation axis of a rigidmore » body was known. Performance results confirmed that such an approach could be used for online dead reckoning localization.« less

Comparison of two views of maximum entropy in biodiversity: Frank (2011) and Pueyo et al. (2007).

PubMed

Pueyo, Salvador

2012-05-01

An increasing number of authors agree in that the maximum entropy principle (MaxEnt) is essential for the understanding of macroecological patterns. However, there are subtle but crucial differences among the approaches by several of these authors. This poses a major obstacle for anyone interested in applying the methodology of MaxEnt in this context. In a recent publication, Frank (2011) gives some arguments why his own approach would represent an improvement as compared to the earlier paper by Pueyo et al. (2007) and also to the views by Edwin T. Jaynes, who first formulated MaxEnt in the context of statistical physics. Here I show that his criticisms are flawed and that there are fundamental reasons to prefer the original approach.

On the sufficiency of pairwise interactions in maximum entropy models of networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nemenman, Ilya; Merchan, Lina

Biological information processing networks consist of many components, which are coupled by an even larger number of complex multivariate interactions. However, analyses of data sets from fields as diverse as neuroscience, molecular biology, and behavior have reported that observed statistics of states of some biological networks can be approximated well by maximum entropy models with only pairwise interactions among the components. Based on simulations of random Ising spin networks with p-spin (p > 2) interactions, here we argue that this reduction in complexity can be thought of as a natural property of some densely interacting networks in certain regimes, and not necessarily as a special property of living systems. This work was supported in part by James S. McDonnell Foundation Grant No. 220020321.

Maximum entropy models as a tool for building precise neural controls.

PubMed

Savin, Cristina; Tkačik, Gašper

2017-10-01

Neural responses are highly structured, with population activity restricted to a small subset of the astronomical range of possible activity patterns. Characterizing these statistical regularities is important for understanding circuit computation, but challenging in practice. Here we review recent approaches based on the maximum entropy principle used for quantifying collective behavior in neural activity. We highlight recent models that capture population-level statistics of neural data, yielding insights into the organization of the neural code and its biological substrate. Furthermore, the MaxEnt framework provides a general recipe for constructing surrogate ensembles that preserve aspects of the data, but are otherwise maximally unstructured. This idea can be used to generate a hierarchy of controls against which rigorous statistical tests are possible. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of two views of maximum entropy in biodiversity: Frank (2011) and Pueyo et al. (2007)

PubMed Central

Pueyo, Salvador

2012-01-01

An increasing number of authors agree in that the maximum entropy principle (MaxEnt) is essential for the understanding of macroecological patterns. However, there are subtle but crucial differences among the approaches by several of these authors. This poses a major obstacle for anyone interested in applying the methodology of MaxEnt in this context. In a recent publication, Frank (2011) gives some arguments why his own approach would represent an improvement as compared to the earlier paper by Pueyo et al. (2007) and also to the views by Edwin T. Jaynes, who first formulated MaxEnt in the context of statistical physics. Here I show that his criticisms are flawed and that there are fundamental reasons to prefer the original approach. PMID:22837843

MaxEnt-Based Ecological Theory: A Template for Integrated Catchment Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harte, J.

2017-12-01

The maximum information entropy procedure (MaxEnt) is both a powerful tool for inferring least-biased probability distributions from limited data and a framework for the construction of complex systems theory. The maximum entropy theory of ecology (METE) describes remarkably well widely observed patterns in the distribution, abundance and energetics of individuals and taxa in relatively static ecosystems. An extension to ecosystems undergoing change in response to disturbance or natural succession (DynaMETE) is in progress. I describe the structure of both the static and the dynamic theory and show a range of comparisons with census data. I then propose a generalization of the MaxEnt approach that could provide a framework for a predictive theory of both static and dynamic, fully-coupled, eco-socio-hydrological catchment systems.

A non-uniformly sampled 4D HCC(CO)NH-TOCSY experiment processed using maximum entropy for rapid protein sidechain assignment

PubMed Central

Mobli, Mehdi; Stern, Alan S.; Bermel, Wolfgang; King, Glenn F.; Hoch, Jeffrey C.

2010-01-01

One of the stiffest challenges in structural studies of proteins using NMR is the assignment of sidechain resonances. Typically, a panel of lengthy 3D experiments are acquired in order to establish connectivities and resolve ambiguities due to overlap. We demonstrate that these experiments can be replaced by a single 4D experiment that is time-efficient, yields excellent resolution, and captures unique carbon-proton connectivity information. The approach is made practical by the use of non-uniform sampling in the three indirect time dimensions and maximum entropy reconstruction of the corresponding 3D frequency spectrum. This 4D method will facilitate automated resonance assignment procedures and it should be particularly beneficial for increasing throughput in NMR-based structural genomics initiatives. PMID:20299257

A maximum entropy model for chromatin structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farre, Pau; Emberly, Eldon; Emberly Group Team

The DNA inside the nucleus of eukaryotic cells shows a variety of conserved structures at different length scales These structures are formed by interactions between protein complexes that bind to the DNA and regulate gene activity. Recent high throughput sequencing techniques allow for the measurement both of the genome wide contact map of the folded DNA within a cell (HiC) and where various proteins are bound to the DNA (ChIP-seq). In this talk I will present a maximum-entropy method capable of both predicting HiC contact maps from binding data, and binding data from HiC contact maps. This method results in an intuitive Ising-type model that is able to predict how altering the presence of binding factors can modify chromosome conformation, without the need of polymer simulations.

DECONV-TOOL: An IDL based deconvolution software package

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Varosi, F.; Landsman, W. B.

1992-01-01

There are a variety of algorithms for deconvolution of blurred images, each having its own criteria or statistic to be optimized in order to estimate the original image data. Using the Interactive Data Language (IDL), we have implemented the Maximum Likelihood, Maximum Entropy, Maximum Residual Likelihood, and sigma-CLEAN algorithms in a unified environment called DeConv_Tool. Most of the algorithms have as their goal the optimization of statistics such as standard deviation and mean of residuals. Shannon entropy, log-likelihood, and chi-square of the residual auto-correlation are computed by DeConv_Tool for the purpose of determining the performance and convergence of any particular method and comparisons between methods. DeConv_Tool allows interactive monitoring of the statistics and the deconvolved image during computation. The final results, and optionally, the intermediate results, are stored in a structure convenient for comparison between methods and review of the deconvolution computation. The routines comprising DeConv_Tool are available via anonymous FTP through the IDL Astronomy User's Library.

Value Focused Thinking Applications to Supervised Pattern Classification With Extensions to Hyperspectral Anomaly Detection Algorithms

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-26

performing. All reasonable permutations of factors will be used to develop a multitude of unique combinations. These combinations are considered different...are seen below (Duda et al., 2001). Entropy impurity: () = −�P�ωj�log2P(ωj) j (9) Gini impurity: () =�()�� = 1 2 ∗ [1...proportion of one class to another approaches 0.5, the impurity measure reaches its maximum, which for Entropy is 1.0, while it is 0.5 for Gini and

Regularization of Grad’s 13 -Moment-Equations in Kinetic Gas Theory

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

variant of the moment method has been proposed by Eu (1980) and is used, e.g., in Myong (2001). Recently, a maximum- entropy 10-moment system has been used...small amplitude linear waves, the R13 system is linearly stable in time for all modes and wave lengths. The instability of the Burnett system indicates...Boltzmann equation. Related to the problem of global hyperbolicity is the questions of the existence of an entropy law for the R13 system . In the linear

Maximum Kolmogorov-Sinai Entropy Versus Minimum Mixing Time in Markov Chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mihelich, M.; Dubrulle, B.; Paillard, D.; Kral, Q.; Faranda, D.

2018-01-01

We establish a link between the maximization of Kolmogorov Sinai entropy (KSE) and the minimization of the mixing time for general Markov chains. Since the maximisation of KSE is analytical and easier to compute in general than mixing time, this link provides a new faster method to approximate the minimum mixing time dynamics. It could be interesting in computer sciences and statistical physics, for computations that use random walks on graphs that can be represented as Markov chains.

The Adiabatic Piston and the Second Law of Thermodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crosignani, Bruno; Di Porto, Paolo; Conti, Claudio

2002-11-01

A detailed analysis of the adiabatic-piston problem reveals peculiar dynamical features that challenge the general belief that isolated systems necessarily reach a static equilibrium state. In particular, the fact that the piston behaves like a perpetuum mobile, i.e., it never stops but keeps wandering, undergoing sizable oscillations, around the position corresponding to maximum entropy, has remarkable implications on the entropy variations of the system and on the validity of the second law when dealing with systems of mesoscopic dimensions.

Maximum Entropy Calculations on a Discrete Probability Space

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-01-01

constraints acting besides normalization. Statement 3: " The aim of this paper is to show that the die experiment just spoken of has solutions by classical ...analysis. Statement 4: We snall solve this problem in a purely classical way, without the need for recourse to any exotic estimator, such as ME." Note... The I’iximoun Entropy Principle lin i rejirk.ible -series ofT papers beginning in 1957, E. T. J.ayiieti (1957) be~gan a revuluuion in inductive

A Novel Multivoxel-Based Quantitation of Metabolites and Lipids Noninvasively Combined with Diffusion-Weighted Imaging in Breast Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-01

cancer for improving the overall specificity.  Our recent work has focused on testing retrospective Maximum Entropy and Compressed Sensing of the 4D...terparts and increases the entropy or sparsity of the reconstructed spectrum by narrowing the peak linewidths and de -noising smaller features. This, in...tightened’ beyond the standard de - viation of the noise in an effort to reduce the RMSE and reconstruc- tion non-linearity, but this prevents the

Dissipated energy and entropy production for an unconventional heat engine: the stepwise `circular cycle'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

di Liberto, Francesco; Pastore, Raffaele; Peruggi, Fulvio

2011-05-01

When some entropy is transferred, by means of a reversible engine, from a hot heat source to a colder one, the maximum efficiency occurs, i.e. the maximum available work is obtained. Similarly, a reversible heat pumps transfer entropy from a cold heat source to a hotter one with the minimum expense of energy. In contrast, if we are faced with non-reversible devices, there is some lost work for heat engines, and some extra work for heat pumps. These quantities are both related to entropy production. The lost work, i.e. ? , is also called 'degraded energy' or 'energy unavailable to do work'. The extra work, i.e. ? , is the excess of work performed on the system in the irreversible process with respect to the reversible one (or the excess of heat given to the hotter source in the irreversible process). Both quantities are analysed in detail and are evaluated for a complex process, i.e. the stepwise circular cycle, which is similar to the stepwise Carnot cycle. The stepwise circular cycle is a cycle performed by means of N small weights, dw, which are first added and then removed from the piston of the vessel containing the gas or vice versa. The work performed by the gas can be found as the increase of the potential energy of the dw's. Each single dw is identified and its increase, i.e. its increase in potential energy, evaluated. In such a way it is found how the energy output of the cycle is distributed among the dw's. The size of the dw's affects entropy production and therefore the lost and extra work. The distribution of increases depends on the chosen removal process.

Sample entropy analysis of cervical neoplasia gene-expression signatures

PubMed Central

Botting, Shaleen K; Trzeciakowski, Jerome P; Benoit, Michelle F; Salama, Salama A; Diaz-Arrastia, Concepcion R

2009-01-01

Background We introduce Approximate Entropy as a mathematical method of analysis for microarray data. Approximate entropy is applied here as a method to classify the complex gene expression patterns resultant of a clinical sample set. Since Entropy is a measure of disorder in a system, we believe that by choosing genes which display minimum entropy in normal controls and maximum entropy in the cancerous sample set we will be able to distinguish those genes which display the greatest variability in the cancerous set. Here we describe a method of utilizing Approximate Sample Entropy (ApSE) analysis to identify genes of interest with the highest probability of producing an accurate, predictive, classification model from our data set. Results In the development of a diagnostic gene-expression profile for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and squamous cell carcinoma of the cervix, we identified 208 genes which are unchanging in all normal tissue samples, yet exhibit a random pattern indicative of the genetic instability and heterogeneity of malignant cells. This may be measured in terms of the ApSE when compared to normal tissue. We have validated 10 of these genes on 10 Normal and 20 cancer and CIN3 samples. We report that the predictive value of the sample entropy calculation for these 10 genes of interest is promising (75% sensitivity, 80% specificity for prediction of cervical cancer over CIN3). Conclusion The success of the Approximate Sample Entropy approach in discerning alterations in complexity from biological system with such relatively small sample set, and extracting biologically relevant genes of interest hold great promise. PMID:19232110

GABAergic excitation of spider mechanoreceptors increases information capacity by increasing entropy rather than decreasing jitter.

PubMed

Pfeiffer, Keram; French, Andrew S

2009-09-02

Neurotransmitter chemicals excite or inhibit a range of sensory afferents and sensory pathways. These changes in firing rate or static sensitivity can also be associated with changes in dynamic sensitivity or membrane noise and thus action potential timing. We measured action potential firing produced by random mechanical stimulation of spider mechanoreceptor neurons during long-duration excitation by the GABAA agonist muscimol. Information capacity was estimated from signal-to-noise ratio by averaging responses to repeated identical stimulation sequences. Information capacity was also estimated from the coherence function between input and output signals. Entropy rate was estimated by a data compression algorithm and maximum entropy rate from the firing rate. Action potential timing variability, or jitter, was measured as normalized interspike interval distance. Muscimol increased firing rate, information capacity, and entropy rate, but jitter was unchanged. We compared these data with the effects of increasing firing rate by current injection. Our results indicate that the major increase in information capacity by neurotransmitter action arose from the increased entropy rate produced by increased firing rate, not from reduction in membrane noise and action potential jitter.

An improved method for predicting the evolution of the characteristic parameters of an information system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dushkin, A. V.; Kasatkina, T. I.; Novoseltsev, V. I.; Ivanov, S. V.

2018-03-01

The article proposes a forecasting method that allows, based on the given values of entropy and error level of the first and second kind, to determine the allowable time for forecasting the development of the characteristic parameters of a complex information system. The main feature of the method under consideration is the determination of changes in the characteristic parameters of the development of the information system in the form of the magnitude of the increment in the ratios of its entropy. When a predetermined value of the prediction error ratio is reached, that is, the entropy of the system, the characteristic parameters of the system and the depth of the prediction in time are estimated. The resulting values of the characteristics and will be optimal, since at that moment the system possessed the best ratio of entropy as a measure of the degree of organization and orderliness of the structure of the system. To construct a method for estimating the depth of prediction, it is expedient to use the maximum principle of the value of entropy.

Force-Time Entropy of Isometric Impulse.

PubMed

Hsieh, Tsung-Yu; Newell, Karl M

2016-01-01

The relation between force and temporal variability in discrete impulse production has been viewed as independent (R. A. Schmidt, H. Zelaznik, B. Hawkins, J. S. Frank, & J. T. Quinn, 1979 ) or dependent on the rate of force (L. G. Carlton & K. M. Newell, 1993 ). Two experiments in an isometric single finger force task investigated the joint force-time entropy with (a) fixed time to peak force and different percentages of force level and (b) fixed percentage of force level and different times to peak force. The results showed that the peak force variability increased either with the increment of force level or through a shorter time to peak force that also reduced timing error variability. The peak force entropy and entropy of time to peak force increased on the respective dimension as the parameter conditions approached either maximum force or a minimum rate of force production. The findings show that force error and timing error are dependent but complementary when considered in the same framework with the joint force-time entropy at a minimum in the middle parameter range of discrete impulse.

Optimality and inference in hydrology from entropy production considerations: synthetic hillslope numerical experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kollet, S. J.

2015-05-01

In this study, entropy production optimization and inference principles are applied to a synthetic semi-arid hillslope in high-resolution, physics-based simulations. The results suggest that entropy or power is indeed maximized, because of the strong nonlinearity of variably saturated flow and competing processes related to soil moisture fluxes, the depletion of gradients, and the movement of a free water table. Thus, it appears that the maximum entropy production (MEP) principle may indeed be applicable to hydrologic systems. In the application to hydrologic system, the free water table constitutes an important degree of freedom in the optimization of entropy production and may also relate the theory to actual observations. In an ensuing analysis, an attempt is made to transfer the complex, "microscopic" hillslope model into a macroscopic model of reduced complexity using the MEP principle as an interference tool to obtain effective conductance coefficients and forces/gradients. The results demonstrate a new approach for the application of MEP to hydrologic systems and may form the basis for fruitful discussions and research in future.

Localization Accuracy of Distributed Inverse Solutions for Electric and Magnetic Source Imaging of Interictal Epileptic Discharges in Patients with Focal Epilepsy.

PubMed

Heers, Marcel; Chowdhury, Rasheda A; Hedrich, Tanguy; Dubeau, François; Hall, Jeffery A; Lina, Jean-Marc; Grova, Christophe; Kobayashi, Eliane

2016-01-01

Distributed inverse solutions aim to realistically reconstruct the origin of interictal epileptic discharges (IEDs) from noninvasively recorded electroencephalography (EEG) and magnetoencephalography (MEG) signals. Our aim was to compare the performance of different distributed inverse solutions in localizing IEDs: coherent maximum entropy on the mean (cMEM), hierarchical Bayesian implementations of independent identically distributed sources (IID, minimum norm prior) and spatially coherent sources (COH, spatial smoothness prior). Source maxima (i.e., the vertex with the maximum source amplitude) of IEDs in 14 EEG and 19 MEG studies from 15 patients with focal epilepsy were analyzed. We visually compared their concordance with intracranial EEG (iEEG) based on 17 cortical regions of interest and their spatial dispersion around source maxima. Magnetic source imaging (MSI) maxima from cMEM were most often confirmed by iEEG (cMEM: 14/19, COH: 9/19, IID: 8/19 studies). COH electric source imaging (ESI) maxima co-localized best with iEEG (cMEM: 8/14, COH: 11/14, IID: 10/14 studies). In addition, cMEM was less spatially spread than COH and IID for ESI and MSI (p < 0.001 Bonferroni-corrected post hoc t test). Highest positive predictive values for cortical regions with IEDs in iEEG could be obtained with cMEM for MSI and with COH for ESI. Additional realistic EEG/MEG simulations confirmed our findings. Accurate spatially extended sources, as found in cMEM (ESI and MSI) and COH (ESI) are desirable for source imaging of IEDs because this might influence surgical decision. Our simulations suggest that COH and IID overestimate the spatial extent of the generators compared to cMEM.

Analysis of statistical and standard algorithms for detecting muscle onset with surface electromyography.

PubMed

Tenan, Matthew S; Tweedell, Andrew J; Haynes, Courtney A

2017-01-01

The timing of muscle activity is a commonly applied analytic method to understand how the nervous system controls movement. This study systematically evaluates six classes of standard and statistical algorithms to determine muscle onset in both experimental surface electromyography (EMG) and simulated EMG with a known onset time. Eighteen participants had EMG collected from the biceps brachii and vastus lateralis while performing a biceps curl or knee extension, respectively. Three established methods and three statistical methods for EMG onset were evaluated. Linear envelope, Teager-Kaiser energy operator + linear envelope and sample entropy were the established methods evaluated while general time series mean/variance, sequential and batch processing of parametric and nonparametric tools, and Bayesian changepoint analysis were the statistical techniques used. Visual EMG onset (experimental data) and objective EMG onset (simulated data) were compared with algorithmic EMG onset via root mean square error and linear regression models for stepwise elimination of inferior algorithms. The top algorithms for both data types were analyzed for their mean agreement with the gold standard onset and evaluation of 95% confidence intervals. The top algorithms were all Bayesian changepoint analysis iterations where the parameter of the prior (p0) was zero. The best performing Bayesian algorithms were p0 = 0 and a posterior probability for onset determination at 60-90%. While existing algorithms performed reasonably, the Bayesian changepoint analysis methodology provides greater reliability and accuracy when determining the singular onset of EMG activity in a time series. Further research is needed to determine if this class of algorithms perform equally well when the time series has multiple bursts of muscle activity.

Population pharmacokinetics and maximum a posteriori probability Bayesian estimator of abacavir: application of individualized therapy in HIV-infected infants and toddlers

PubMed Central

Zhao, Wei; Cella, Massimo; Della Pasqua, Oscar; Burger, David; Jacqz-Aigrain, Evelyne

2012-01-01

AIMS To develop a population pharmacokinetic model for abacavir in HIV-infected infants and toddlers, which will be used to describe both once and twice daily pharmacokinetic profiles, identify covariates that explain variability and propose optimal time points to optimize the area under the concentration–time curve (AUC) targeted dosage and individualize therapy. METHODS The pharmacokinetics of abacavir was described with plasma concentrations from 23 patients using nonlinear mixed-effects modelling (NONMEM) software. A two-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination was developed. The final model was validated using bootstrap, visual predictive check and normalized prediction distribution errors. The Bayesian estimator was validated using the cross-validation and simulation–estimation method. RESULTS The typical population pharmacokinetic parameters and relative standard errors (RSE) were apparent systemic clearance (CL) 13.4 l h−1 (RSE 6.3%), apparent central volume of distribution 4.94 l (RSE 28.7%), apparent peripheral volume of distribution 8.12 l (RSE14.2%), apparent intercompartment clearance 1.25 l h−1 (RSE 16.9%) and absorption rate constant 0.758 h−1 (RSE 5.8%). The covariate analysis identified weight as the individual factor influencing the apparent oral clearance: CL = 13.4 × (weight/12)1.14. The maximum a posteriori probability Bayesian estimator, based on three concentrations measured at 0, 1 or 2, and 3 h after drug intake allowed predicting individual AUC0–t. CONCLUSIONS The population pharmacokinetic model developed for abacavir in HIV-infected infants and toddlers accurately described both once and twice daily pharmacokinetic profiles. The maximum a posteriori probability Bayesian estimator of AUC0–t was developed from the final model and can be used routinely to optimize individual dosing. PMID:21988586

The utility of Bayesian predictive probabilities for interim monitoring of clinical trials

PubMed Central

Connor, Jason T.; Ayers, Gregory D; Alvarez, JoAnn

2014-01-01

Background Bayesian predictive probabilities can be used for interim monitoring of clinical trials to estimate the probability of observing a statistically significant treatment effect if the trial were to continue to its predefined maximum sample size. Purpose We explore settings in which Bayesian predictive probabilities are advantageous for interim monitoring compared to Bayesian posterior probabilities, p-values, conditional power, or group sequential methods. Results For interim analyses that address prediction hypotheses, such as futility monitoring and efficacy monitoring with lagged outcomes, only predictive probabilities properly account for the amount of data remaining to be observed in a clinical trial and have the flexibility to incorporate additional information via auxiliary variables. Limitations Computational burdens limit the feasibility of predictive probabilities in many clinical trial settings. The specification of prior distributions brings additional challenges for regulatory approval. Conclusions The use of Bayesian predictive probabilities enables the choice of logical interim stopping rules that closely align with the clinical decision making process. PMID:24872363

Bayesian forecasting and uncertainty quantifying of stream flows using Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hongrui; Wang, Cheng; Wang, Ying; Gao, Xiong; Yu, Chen

2017-06-01

This paper presents a Bayesian approach using Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm and applies this method for daily river flow rate forecast and uncertainty quantification for Zhujiachuan River using data collected from Qiaotoubao Gage Station and other 13 gage stations in Zhujiachuan watershed in China. The proposed method is also compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for parameter estimation and quantification of associated uncertainties. While the Bayesian method performs similarly in estimating the mean value of daily flow rate, it performs over the conventional MLE method on uncertainty quantification, providing relatively narrower reliable interval than the MLE confidence interval and thus more precise estimation by using the related information from regional gage stations. The Bayesian MCMC method might be more favorable in the uncertainty analysis and risk management.

Forest Tree Species Distribution Mapping Using Landsat Satellite Imagery and Topographic Variables with the Maximum Entropy Method in Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao Chiang, Shou; Valdez, Miguel; Chen, Chi-Farn

2016-06-01

Forest is a very important ecosystem and natural resource for living things. Based on forest inventories, government is able to make decisions to converse, improve and manage forests in a sustainable way. Field work for forestry investigation is difficult and time consuming, because it needs intensive physical labor and the costs are high, especially surveying in remote mountainous regions. A reliable forest inventory can give us a more accurate and timely information to develop new and efficient approaches of forest management. The remote sensing technology has been recently used for forest investigation at a large scale. To produce an informative forest inventory, forest attributes, including tree species are unavoidably required to be considered. In this study the aim is to classify forest tree species in Erdenebulgan County, Huwsgul province in Mongolia, using Maximum Entropy method. The study area is covered by a dense forest which is almost 70% of total territorial extension of Erdenebulgan County and is located in a high mountain region in northern Mongolia. For this study, Landsat satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) were acquired to perform tree species mapping. The forest tree species inventory map was collected from the Forest Division of the Mongolian Ministry of Nature and Environment as training data and also used as ground truth to perform the accuracy assessment of the tree species classification. Landsat images and DEM were processed for maximum entropy modeling, and this study applied the model with two experiments. The first one is to use Landsat surface reflectance for tree species classification; and the second experiment incorporates terrain variables in addition to the Landsat surface reflectance to perform the tree species classification. All experimental results were compared with the tree species inventory to assess the classification accuracy. Results show that the second one which uses Landsat surface reflectance coupled with terrain variables produced better result, with the higher overall accuracy and kappa coefficient than first experiment. The results indicate that the Maximum Entropy method is an applicable, and to classify tree species using satellite imagery data coupled with terrain information can improve the classification of tree species in the study area.

Applying Bayesian Item Selection Approaches to Adaptive Tests Using Polytomous Items

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Penfield, Randall D.

2006-01-01

This study applied the maximum expected information (MEI) and the maximum posterior-weighted information (MPI) approaches of computer adaptive testing item selection to the case of a test using polytomous items following the partial credit model. The MEI and MPI approaches are described. A simulation study compared the efficiency of ability…

Phylogenetic analyses of RPB1 and RPB2 support a middle Cretaceous origin for a clade comprising all agriculturally and medically important fusaria

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Fusarium (Hypocreales, Nectriaceae) is one of the most economically important and systematically challenging groups of mycotoxigenic phytopathogens and emergent human pathogens. We conducted maximum likelihood (ML), maximum parsimony (MP) and Bayesian (B) analyses on partial RNA polymerase largest (...

A Theoretical Basis for Entropy-Scaling Effects in Human Mobility Patterns

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Characterizing how people move through space has been an important component of many disciplines. With the advent of automated data collection through GPS and other location sensing systems, researchers have the opportunity to examine human mobility at spatio-temporal resolution heretofore impossible. However, the copious and complex data collected through these logging systems can be difficult for humans to fully exploit, leading many researchers to propose novel metrics for encapsulating movement patterns in succinct and useful ways. A particularly salient proposed metric is the mobility entropy rate of the string representing the sequence of locations visited by an individual. However, mobility entropy rate is not scale invariant: entropy rate calculations based on measurements of the same trajectory at varying spatial or temporal granularity do not yield the same value, limiting the utility of mobility entropy rate as a metric by confounding inter-experimental comparisons. In this paper, we derive a scaling relationship for mobility entropy rate of non-repeating straight line paths from the definition of Lempel-Ziv compression. We show that the resulting formulation predicts the scaling behavior of simulated mobility traces, and provides an upper bound on mobility entropy rate under certain assumptions. We further show that this formulation has a maximum value for a particular sampling rate, implying that optimal sampling rates for particular movement patterns exist. PMID:27571423

Quantifying the entropic cost of cellular growth control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Martino, Daniele; Capuani, Fabrizio; De Martino, Andrea

2017-07-01

Viewing the ways a living cell can organize its metabolism as the phase space of a physical system, regulation can be seen as the ability to reduce the entropy of that space by selecting specific cellular configurations that are, in some sense, optimal. Here we quantify the amount of regulation required to control a cell's growth rate by a maximum-entropy approach to the space of underlying metabolic phenotypes, where a configuration corresponds to a metabolic flux pattern as described by genome-scale models. We link the mean growth rate achieved by a population of cells to the minimal amount of metabolic regulation needed to achieve it through a phase diagram that highlights how growth suppression can be as costly (in regulatory terms) as growth enhancement. Moreover, we provide an interpretation of the inverse temperature β controlling maximum-entropy distributions based on the underlying growth dynamics. Specifically, we show that the asymptotic value of β for a cell population can be expected to depend on (i) the carrying capacity of the environment, (ii) the initial size of the colony, and (iii) the probability distribution from which the inoculum was sampled. Results obtained for E. coli and human cells are found to be remarkably consistent with empirical evidence.

A comparative study on the mechanical energy of the normal, ACL, osteoarthritis, and Parkinson subjects.

PubMed

Bahreinizad, Hossein; Salimi Bani, Milad; Hasani, Mojtaba; Karimi, Mohammad Taghi; Sharifmoradi, Keyvan; Karimi, Alireza

2017-08-09

The influence of various musculoskeletal disorders has been evaluated using different kinetic and kinematic parameters. But the efficiency of walking can be evaluated by measuring the effort of the subject, or by other words the energy that is required to walk. The aim of this study was to identify mechanical energy differences between the normal and pathological groups. Four groups of 15 healthy subjects, 13 Parkinson subjects, 4 osteoarthritis subjects, and 4 ACL reconstructed subjects have participated in this study. The motions of foot, shank and thigh were recorded using a three dimensional motion analysis system. The kinetic, potential and total mechanical energy of each segment was calculated using 3D markers positions and anthropometric measurements. Maximum value and sample entropy of energies was compared between the normal and abnormal subjects. Maximum value of potential energy of OA subjects was lower than the normal subjects. Furthermore, sample entropy of mechanical energy for Parkinson subjects was low in comparison to the normal subjects while sample entropy of mechanical energy for the ACL subjects was higher than that of the normal subjects. Findings of this study suggested that the subjects with different abilities show different mechanical energy during walking.

Multi-GPU maximum entropy image synthesis for radio astronomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cárcamo, M.; Román, P. E.; Casassus, S.; Moral, V.; Rannou, F. R.

2018-01-01

The maximum entropy method (MEM) is a well known deconvolution technique in radio-interferometry. This method solves a non-linear optimization problem with an entropy regularization term. Other heuristics such as CLEAN are faster but highly user dependent. Nevertheless, MEM has the following advantages: it is unsupervised, it has a statistical basis, it has a better resolution and better image quality under certain conditions. This work presents a high performance GPU version of non-gridding MEM, which is tested using real and simulated data. We propose a single-GPU and a multi-GPU implementation for single and multi-spectral data, respectively. We also make use of the Peer-to-Peer and Unified Virtual Addressing features of newer GPUs which allows to exploit transparently and efficiently multiple GPUs. Several ALMA data sets are used to demonstrate the effectiveness in imaging and to evaluate GPU performance. The results show that a speedup from 1000 to 5000 times faster than a sequential version can be achieved, depending on data and image size. This allows to reconstruct the HD142527 CO(6-5) short baseline data set in 2.1 min, instead of 2.5 days that takes a sequential version on CPU.

Non-life insurance pricing: multi-agent model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darooneh, A. H.

2004-11-01

We use the maximum entropy principle for the pricing of non-life insurance and recover the Bühlmann results for the economic premium principle. The concept of economic equilibrium is revised in this respect.

Maximum entropy principle for stationary states underpinned by stochastic thermodynamics.

PubMed

Ford, Ian J

2015-11-01

The selection of an equilibrium state by maximizing the entropy of a system, subject to certain constraints, is often powerfully motivated as an exercise in logical inference, a procedure where conclusions are reached on the basis of incomplete information. But such a framework can be more compelling if it is underpinned by dynamical arguments, and we show how this can be provided by stochastic thermodynamics, where an explicit link is made between the production of entropy and the stochastic dynamics of a system coupled to an environment. The separation of entropy production into three components allows us to select a stationary state by maximizing the change, averaged over all realizations of the motion, in the principal relaxational or nonadiabatic component, equivalent to requiring that this contribution to the entropy production should become time independent for all realizations. We show that this recovers the usual equilibrium probability density function (pdf) for a conservative system in an isothermal environment, as well as the stationary nonequilibrium pdf for a particle confined to a potential under nonisothermal conditions, and a particle subject to a constant nonconservative force under isothermal conditions. The two remaining components of entropy production account for a recently discussed thermodynamic anomaly between over- and underdamped treatments of the dynamics in the nonisothermal stationary state.

Origin of generalized entropies and generalized statistical mechanics for superstatistical multifractal systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gadjiev, Bahruz; Progulova, Tatiana

2015-01-01

We consider a multifractal structure as a mixture of fractal substructures and introduce a distribution function f (α), where α is a fractal dimension. Then we can introduce g(p)˜ ∫- ln p μe-yf(y)dy and show that the distribution functions f (α) in the form of f(α) = δ(α-1), f(α) = δ(α-θ) , f(α) = 1/α-1 , f(y)= y α-1 lead to the Boltzmann - Gibbs, Shafee, Tsallis and Anteneodo - Plastino entropies conformably. Here δ(x) is the Dirac delta function. Therefore the Shafee entropy corresponds to a fractal structure, the Tsallis entropy describes a multifractal structure with a homogeneous distribution of fractal substructures and the Anteneodo - Plastino entropy appears in case of a power law distribution f (y). We consider the Fokker - Planck equation for a fractal substructure and determine its stationary solution. To determine the distribution function of a multifractal structure we solve the two-dimensional Fokker - Planck equation and obtain its stationary solution. Then applying the Bayes theorem we obtain a distribution function for the entire system in the form of q-exponential function. We compare the results of the distribution functions obtained due to the superstatistical approach with the ones obtained according to the maximum entropy principle.

Multi-Group Maximum Entropy Model for Translational Non-Equilibrium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jayaraman, Vegnesh; Liu, Yen; Panesi, Marco

2017-01-01

The aim of the current work is to describe a new model for flows in translational non- equilibrium. Starting from the statistical description of a gas proposed by Boltzmann, the model relies on a domain decomposition technique in velocity space. Using the maximum entropy principle, the logarithm of the distribution function in each velocity sub-domain (group) is expressed with a power series in molecular velocity. New governing equations are obtained using the method of weighted residuals by taking the velocity moments of the Boltzmann equation. The model is applied to a spatially homogeneous Boltzmann equation with a Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook1(BGK) model collision operator and the relaxation of an initial non-equilibrium distribution to a Maxwellian is studied using the model. In addition, numerical results obtained using the model for a 1D shock tube problem are also reported.

How the Second Law of Thermodynamics Has Informed Ecosystem Ecology through Its History

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, E. J.; Childers, D. L.; Vallino, J. J.

2014-12-01

Throughout the history of ecosystem ecology many attempts have been made to develop a general principle governing how systems develop and organize. We reviewed the historical developments that led to conceptualization of several goal-oriented principles in ecosystem ecology and the relationships among them. We focused our review on two prominent principles—the Maximum Power Principle and the Maximum Entropy Production Principle—and the literature that applies to both. While these principles have considerable conceptual overlap and both use concepts in physics (power and entropy), we found considerable differences in their historical development, the disciplines that apply these principles, and their adoption in the literature. We reviewed the literature using Web of Science keyword searches for the MPP, the MEPP, as well as for papers that cited pioneers in the MPP and the MEPP development. From the 6000 papers that our keyword searches returned, we limited our further meta-analysis to 32 papers by focusing on studies with a foundation in ecosystems research. Despite these seemingly disparate pasts, we concluded that the conceptual approaches of these two principles were more similar than dissimilar and that maximization of power in ecosystems occurs with maximum entropy production. We also found that these two principles have great potential to explain how systems develop, organize, and function, but there are no widely agreed upon theoretical derivations for the MEPP or the MPP, possibly hindering their broader use in ecological research. We end with recommendations for how ecosystems-level studies may better use these principles.

[Evaluation of a simplified index (spectral entropy) about sleep state of electrocardiogram recorded by a simplified polygraph, MemCalc-Makin2].

PubMed

Ohisa, Noriko; Ogawa, Hiromasa; Murayama, Nobuki; Yoshida, Katsumi

2010-02-01

Polysomnography (PSG) is the gold standard for the diagnosis of sleep apnea hypopnea syndrome (SAHS), but it takes time to analyze the PSG and PSG cannot be performed repeatedly because of efforts and costs. Therefore, simplified sleep respiratory disorder indices in which are reflected the PSG results are needed. The Memcalc method, which is a combination of the maximum entropy method for spectral analysis and the non-linear least squares method for fitting analysis (Makin2, Suwa Trust, Tokyo, Japan) has recently been developed. Spectral entropy which is derived by the Memcalc method might be useful to expressing the trend of time-series behavior. Spectral entropy of ECG which is calculated with the Memcalc method was evaluated by comparing to the PSG results. Obstructive SAS patients (n = 79) and control volanteer (n = 7) ECG was recorded using MemCalc-Makin2 (GMS) with PSG recording using Alice IV (Respironics) from 20:00 to 6:00. Spectral entropy of ECG, which was calculated every 2 seconds using the Memcalc method, was compared to sleep stages which were analyzed manually from PSG recordings. Spectral entropy value (-0.473 vs. -0.418, p < 0.05) were significantly increased in the OSAHS compared to the control. For the entropy cutoff level of -0.423, sensitivity and specificity for OSAHS were 86.1% and 71.4%, respectively, resulting in a receiver operating characteristic with an area under the curve of 0.837. The absolute value of entropy had inverse correlation with stage 3. Spectral entropy, which was calculated with Memcalc method, might be a possible index evaluating the quality of sleep.

A hybrid approach to estimating national scale spatiotemporal variability of PM2.5 in the contiguous United States.

PubMed

Beckerman, Bernardo S; Jerrett, Michael; Serre, Marc; Martin, Randall V; Lee, Seung-Jae; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Ross, Zev; Su, Jason; Burnett, Richard T

2013-07-02

Airborne fine particulate matter exhibits spatiotemporal variability at multiple scales, which presents challenges to estimating exposures for health effects assessment. Here we created a model to predict ambient particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) across the contiguous United States to be applied to health effects modeling. We developed a hybrid approach combining a land use regression model (LUR) selected with a machine learning method, and Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) interpolation of the LUR space-time residuals. The PM2.5 data set included 104,172 monthly observations at 1464 monitoring locations with approximately 10% of locations reserved for cross-validation. LUR models were based on remote sensing estimates of PM2.5, land use and traffic indicators. Normalized cross-validated R(2) values for LUR were 0.63 and 0.11 with and without remote sensing, respectively, suggesting remote sensing is a strong predictor of ground-level concentrations. In the models including the BME interpolation of the residuals, cross-validated R(2) were 0.79 for both configurations; the model without remotely sensed data described more fine-scale variation than the model including remote sensing. Our results suggest that our modeling framework can predict ground-level concentrations of PM2.5 at multiple scales over the contiguous U.S.

Spatial modelling of disease using data- and knowledge-driven approaches.

PubMed

Stevens, Kim B; Pfeiffer, Dirk U

2011-09-01

The purpose of spatial modelling in animal and public health is three-fold: describing existing spatial patterns of risk, attempting to understand the biological mechanisms that lead to disease occurrence and predicting what will happen in the medium to long-term future (temporal prediction) or in different geographical areas (spatial prediction). Traditional methods for temporal and spatial predictions include general and generalized linear models (GLM), generalized additive models (GAM) and Bayesian estimation methods. However, such models require both disease presence and absence data which are not always easy to obtain. Novel spatial modelling methods such as maximum entropy (MAXENT) and the genetic algorithm for rule set production (GARP) require only disease presence data and have been used extensively in the fields of ecology and conservation, to model species distribution and habitat suitability. Other methods, such as multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), use knowledge of the causal factors of disease occurrence to identify areas potentially suitable for disease. In addition to their less restrictive data requirements, some of these novel methods have been shown to outperform traditional statistical methods in predictive ability (Elith et al., 2006). This review paper provides details of some of these novel methods for mapping disease distribution, highlights their advantages and limitations, and identifies studies which have used the methods to model various aspects of disease distribution. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Using river distance and existing hydrography data can improve the geostatistical estimation of fish tissue mercury at unsampled locations.

PubMed

Money, Eric S; Sackett, Dana K; Aday, D Derek; Serre, Marc L

2011-09-15

Mercury in fish tissue is a major human health concern. Consumption of mercury-contaminated fish poses risks to the general population, including potentially serious developmental defects and neurological damage in young children. Therefore, it is important to accurately identify areas that have the potential for high levels of bioaccumulated mercury. However, due to time and resource constraints, it is difficult to adequately assess fish tissue mercury on a basin wide scale. We hypothesized that, given the nature of fish movement along streams, an analytical approach that takes into account distance traveled along these streams would improve the estimation accuracy for fish tissue mercury in unsampled streams. Therefore, we used a river-based Bayesian Maximum Entropy framework (river-BME) for modern space/time geostatistics to estimate fish tissue mercury at unsampled locations in the Cape Fear and Lumber Basins in eastern North Carolina. We also compared the space/time geostatistical estimation using river-BME to the more traditional Euclidean-based BME approach, with and without the inclusion of a secondary variable. Results showed that this river-based approach reduced the estimation error of fish tissue mercury by more than 13% and that the median estimate of fish tissue mercury exceeded the EPA action level of 0.3 ppm in more than 90% of river miles for the study domain.

Expectation-maximization of the potential of mean force and diffusion coefficient in Langevin dynamics from single molecule FRET data photon by photon.

PubMed

Haas, Kevin R; Yang, Haw; Chu, Jhih-Wei

2013-12-12

The dynamics of a protein along a well-defined coordinate can be formally projected onto the form of an overdamped Lagevin equation. Here, we present a comprehensive statistical-learning framework for simultaneously quantifying the deterministic force (the potential of mean force, PMF) and the stochastic force (characterized by the diffusion coefficient, D) from single-molecule Förster-type resonance energy transfer (smFRET) experiments. The likelihood functional of the Langevin parameters, PMF and D, is expressed by a path integral of the latent smFRET distance that follows Langevin dynamics and realized by the donor and the acceptor photon emissions. The solution is made possible by an eigen decomposition of the time-symmetrized form of the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation coupled with photon statistics. To extract the Langevin parameters from photon arrival time data, we advance the expectation-maximization algorithm in statistical learning, originally developed for and mostly used in discrete-state systems, to a general form in the continuous space that allows for a variational calculus on the continuous PMF function. We also introduce the regularization of the solution space in this Bayesian inference based on a maximum trajectory-entropy principle. We use a highly nontrivial example with realistically simulated smFRET data to illustrate the application of this new method.

A climate-based spatiotemporal prediction for dengue fever epidemics: a case study in southern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, H.-L.; Yang, S.-J.; Lin, Y.-C.

2012-04-01

Dengue Fever (DF) has been identified by the World Health organization (WHO) as one of the most serious vector-borne infectious diseases in tropical and sub-tropical areas. DF has been one of the most important epidemics in Taiwan which occur annually especially in southern Taiwan during summer and autumn. Most DF studies have focused mainly on temporal DF patterns and its close association with climatic covariates, whereas few studies have investigated the spatial DF patterns (spatial dependence and clustering) and composite space-time effects of the DF epidemics. The present study proposes a spatio-temporal DF prediction approach based on stochastic Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis. Core and site-specific knowledge bases are considered, including climate and health datasets under conditions of uncertainty, space-time dependence functions, and a Poisson regression model of climatic variables contributing to DF occurrences in southern Taiwan during 2007, when the highest number of DF cases was recorded in the history of Taiwan epidemics (over 2000). The obtained results show that the DF outbreaks in the study area are highly influenced by climatic conditions. Furthermore, the analysis can provide the required "one-week-ahead" outbreak warnings based on spatio-temporal predictions of DF distributions. Therefore, the proposed analysis can provide the Taiwan Disease Control Agency with a valuable tool to timely identify, control, and even efficiently prevent DF spreading across space-time.

Investigation of the hydrogen fluxes in the plasma edge of W7-AS during H-mode discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langer, U.; Taglauer, E.; Fischer, R.; W7-AS Team

2001-03-01

In the stellarator W7-AS the H-mode is characterized by an edge transport barrier which is localized within a few centimeters inside the separatrix. The corresponding L-H transition shows well-known features such as the steepening of the temperature and density profiles in the region of the separatrix. With a so-called sniffer probe the temporal development of the hydrogen and deuterium fluxes has been studied in the plasma edge during different H-mode discharges with deuterium gas puffing. Prior to the transition a significant reduction of the deuterium and also the hydrogen fluxes can be observed. This fact confirms the assumption that the steepening of the density profiles starts at the outermost edge of the plasma. Moreover, sniffer probe measurements in the plasma edge could therefore identify a precursor for the L-H transition. The analysis of the hydrogen neutral gases shows a distinct change of the hydrogen isotope ratio during the transition. This observation is in agreement with the change in the particle fluxes onto the targets and can also be seen in the reduced H α signals from the limiters. It is further demonstrated that significant improvement in the time resolution of the measured data can be obtained by deconvolution of the data with the apparatus function using Bayesian probability theory and the Maximum Entropy method with adaptive kernels.

Modern space/time geostatistics using river distances: data integration of turbidity and E. coli measurements to assess fecal contamination along the Raritan River in New Jersey.

PubMed

Money, Eric S; Carter, Gail P; Serre, Marc L

2009-05-15

Escherichia coli (E. coli) is a widely used indicator of fecal contamination in water bodies. External contact and subsequent ingestion of bacteria coming from fecal contamination can lead to harmful health effects. Since E. coli data are sometimes limited, the objective of this study is to use secondary information in the form of turbidity to improve the assessment of E. coli at unmonitored locations. We obtained all E. coli and turbidity monitoring data available from existing monitoring networks for the 2000-2006 time period for the Raritan River Basin, New Jersey. Using collocated measurements, we developed a predictive model of E. coli from turbidity data. Using this model, soft data are constructed for E. coli given turbidity measurements at 739 space/time locations where only turbidity was measured. Finally, the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method of modern space/time geostatistics was used for the data integration of monitored and predicted E. coli data to produce maps showing E. coli concentration estimated daily across the river basin. The addition of soft data in conjunction with the use of river distances reduced estimation error by about 30%. Furthermore, based on these maps, up to 35% of river miles in the Raritan Basin had a probability of E coli impairment greater than 90% on the most polluted day of the study period.

Magnetocaloric effect in potassium doped lanthanum manganite perovskites prepared by a pyrophoric method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Soma; Dey, T. K.

2006-08-01

The magnetocaloric effect (MCE) in fine grained perovskite manganites of the type La1-xKxMnO3 (0

Recovery of Graded Response Model Parameters: A Comparison of Marginal Maximum Likelihood and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kieftenbeld, Vincent; Natesan, Prathiba

2012-01-01

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods enable a fully Bayesian approach to parameter estimation of item response models. In this simulation study, the authors compared the recovery of graded response model parameters using marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and Gibbs sampling (MCMC) under various latent trait distributions, test lengths, and…

Bayesian forecasting and uncertainty quantifying of stream flows using Metropolis–Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm

DOE PAGES

Wang, Hongrui; Wang, Cheng; Wang, Ying; ...

2017-04-05

This paper presents a Bayesian approach using Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm and applies this method for daily river flow rate forecast and uncertainty quantification for Zhujiachuan River using data collected from Qiaotoubao Gage Station and other 13 gage stations in Zhujiachuan watershed in China. The proposed method is also compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for parameter estimation and quantification of associated uncertainties. While the Bayesian method performs similarly in estimating the mean value of daily flow rate, it performs over the conventional MLE method on uncertainty quantification, providing relatively narrower reliable interval than the MLEmore » confidence interval and thus more precise estimation by using the related information from regional gage stations. As a result, the Bayesian MCMC method might be more favorable in the uncertainty analysis and risk management.« less

Survival Bayesian Estimation of Exponential-Gamma Under Linex Loss Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizki, S. W.; Mara, M. N.; Sulistianingsih, E.

2017-06-01

This paper elaborates a research of the cancer patients after receiving a treatment in cencored data using Bayesian estimation under Linex Loss function for Survival Model which is assumed as an exponential distribution. By giving Gamma distribution as prior and likelihood function produces a gamma distribution as posterior distribution. The posterior distribution is used to find estimatior {\\hat{λ }}BL by using Linex approximation. After getting {\\hat{λ }}BL, the estimators of hazard function {\\hat{h}}BL and survival function {\\hat{S}}BL can be found. Finally, we compare the result of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and Linex approximation to find the best method for this observation by finding smaller MSE. The result shows that MSE of hazard and survival under MLE are 2.91728E-07 and 0.000309004 and by using Bayesian Linex worths 2.8727E-07 and 0.000304131, respectively. It concludes that the Bayesian Linex is better than MLE.

A Bayesian approach to tracking patients having changing pharmacokinetic parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bayard, David S.; Jelliffe, Roger W.

2004-01-01

This paper considers the updating of Bayesian posterior densities for pharmacokinetic models associated with patients having changing parameter values. For estimation purposes it is proposed to use the Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) estimation algorithm, which is currently a popular algorithm in the aerospace community for tracking maneuvering targets. The IMM algorithm is described, and compared to the multiple model (MM) and Maximum A-Posteriori (MAP) Bayesian estimation methods, which are presently used for posterior updating when pharmacokinetic parameters do not change. Both the MM and MAP Bayesian estimation methods are used in their sequential forms, to facilitate tracking of changing parameters. Results indicate that the IMM algorithm is well suited for tracking time-varying pharmacokinetic parameters in acutely ill and unstable patients, incurring only about half of the integrated error compared to the sequential MM and MAP methods on the same example.

1/ f noise from the laws of thermodynamics for finite-size fluctuations.

PubMed

Chamberlin, Ralph V; Nasir, Derek M

2014-07-01

Computer simulations of the Ising model exhibit white noise if thermal fluctuations are governed by Boltzmann's factor alone; whereas we find that the same model exhibits 1/f noise if Boltzmann's factor is extended to include local alignment entropy to all orders. We show that this nonlinear correction maintains maximum entropy during equilibrium fluctuations. Indeed, as with the usual way to resolve Gibbs' paradox that avoids entropy reduction during reversible processes, the correction yields the statistics of indistinguishable particles. The correction also ensures conservation of energy if an instantaneous contribution from local entropy is included. Thus, a common mechanism for 1/f noise comes from assuming that finite-size fluctuations strictly obey the laws of thermodynamics, even in small parts of a large system. Empirical evidence for the model comes from its ability to match the measured temperature dependence of the spectral-density exponents in several metals and to show non-Gaussian fluctuations characteristic of nanoscale systems.

Entropy in an expanding universe.

PubMed

Frautschi, S

1982-08-13

The question of how the observed evolution of organized structures from initial chaos in the expanding universe can be reconciled with the laws of statistical mechanics is studied, with emphasis on effects of the expansion and gravity. Some major sources of entropy increase are listed. An expanding "causal" region is defined in which the entropy, though increasing, tends to fall further and further behind its maximum possible value, thus allowing for the development of order. The related questions of whether entropy will continue increasing without limit in the future, and whether such increase in the form of Hawking radiation or radiation from positronium might enable life to maintain itself permanently, are considered. Attempts to find a scheme for preserving life based on solid structures fail because events such as quantum tunneling recurrently disorganize matter on a very long but fixed time scale, whereas all energy sources slow down progressively in an expanding universe. However, there remains hope that other modes of life capable of maintaining themselves permanently can be found.

Quantum and Ecosystem Entropies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirwan, A. D.

2008-06-01

Ecosystems and quantum gases share a number of superficial similarities including enormous numbers of interacting elements and the fundamental role of energy in such interactions. A theory for the synthesis of data and prediction of new phenomena is well established in quantum statistical mechanics. The premise of this paper is that the reason a comparable unifying theory has not emerged in ecology is that a proper role for entropy has yet to be assigned. To this end, a phase space entropy model of ecosystems is developed. Specification of an ecosystem phase space cell size based on microbial mass, length, and time scales gives an ecosystem uncertainty parameter only about three orders of magnitude larger than Planck’s constant. Ecosystem equilibria is specified by conservation of biomass and total metabolic energy, along with the principle of maximum entropy at equilibria. Both Bose - Einstein and Fermi - Dirac equilibrium conditions arise in ecosystems applications. The paper concludes with a discussion of some broader aspects of an ecosystem phase space.

Estimating Tree Height-Diameter Models with the Bayesian Method

PubMed Central

Duan, Aiguo; Zhang, Jianguo; Xiang, Congwei

2014-01-01

Six candidate height-diameter models were used to analyze the height-diameter relationships. The common methods for estimating the height-diameter models have taken the classical (frequentist) approach based on the frequency interpretation of probability, for example, the nonlinear least squares method (NLS) and the maximum likelihood method (ML). The Bayesian method has an exclusive advantage compared with classical method that the parameters to be estimated are regarded as random variables. In this study, the classical and Bayesian methods were used to estimate six height-diameter models, respectively. Both the classical method and Bayesian method showed that the Weibull model was the “best” model using data1. In addition, based on the Weibull model, data2 was used for comparing Bayesian method with informative priors with uninformative priors and classical method. The results showed that the improvement in prediction accuracy with Bayesian method led to narrower confidence bands of predicted value in comparison to that for the classical method, and the credible bands of parameters with informative priors were also narrower than uninformative priors and classical method. The estimated posterior distributions for parameters can be set as new priors in estimating the parameters using data2. PMID:24711733

Estimating tree height-diameter models with the Bayesian method.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiongqing; Duan, Aiguo; Zhang, Jianguo; Xiang, Congwei

2014-01-01

Six candidate height-diameter models were used to analyze the height-diameter relationships. The common methods for estimating the height-diameter models have taken the classical (frequentist) approach based on the frequency interpretation of probability, for example, the nonlinear least squares method (NLS) and the maximum likelihood method (ML). The Bayesian method has an exclusive advantage compared with classical method that the parameters to be estimated are regarded as random variables. In this study, the classical and Bayesian methods were used to estimate six height-diameter models, respectively. Both the classical method and Bayesian method showed that the Weibull model was the "best" model using data1. In addition, based on the Weibull model, data2 was used for comparing Bayesian method with informative priors with uninformative priors and classical method. The results showed that the improvement in prediction accuracy with Bayesian method led to narrower confidence bands of predicted value in comparison to that for the classical method, and the credible bands of parameters with informative priors were also narrower than uninformative priors and classical method. The estimated posterior distributions for parameters can be set as new priors in estimating the parameters using data2.

Application of digital image processing techniques to astronomical imagery 1980

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lorre, J. J.

1981-01-01

Topics include: (1) polar coordinate transformations (M83); (2) multispectral ratios (M82); (3) maximum entropy restoration (M87); (4) automated computation of stellar magnitudes in nebulosity; (5) color and polarization; (6) aliasing.

Diagnosis of combined faults in Rotary Machinery by Non-Naive Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asr, Mahsa Yazdanian; Ettefagh, Mir Mohammad; Hassannejad, Reza; Razavi, Seyed Naser

2017-02-01

When combined faults happen in different parts of the rotating machines, their features are profoundly dependent. Experts are completely familiar with individuals faults characteristics and enough data are available from single faults but the problem arises, when the faults combined and the separation of characteristics becomes complex. Therefore, the experts cannot declare exact information about the symptoms of combined fault and its quality. In this paper to overcome this drawback, a novel method is proposed. The core idea of the method is about declaring combined fault without using combined fault features as training data set and just individual fault features are applied in training step. For this purpose, after data acquisition and resampling the obtained vibration signals, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is utilized to decompose multi component signals to Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). With the use of correlation coefficient, proper IMFs for feature extraction are selected. In feature extraction step, Shannon energy entropy of IMFs was extracted as well as statistical features. It is obvious that most of extracted features are strongly dependent. To consider this matter, Non-Naive Bayesian Classifier (NNBC) is appointed, which release the fundamental assumption of Naive Bayesian, i.e., the independence among features. To demonstrate the superiority of NNBC, other counterpart methods, include Normal Naive Bayesian classifier, Kernel Naive Bayesian classifier and Back Propagation Neural Networks were applied and the classification results are compared. An experimental vibration signals, collected from automobile gearbox, were used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. During the classification process, only the features, related individually to healthy state, bearing failure and gear failures, were assigned for training the classifier. But, combined fault features (combined gear and bearing failures) were examined as test data. The achieved probabilities for the test data show that the combined fault can be identified with high success rate.

Nonextensivity in a Dark Maximum Entropy Landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leubner, M. P.

2011-03-01

Nonextensive statistics along with network science, an emerging branch of graph theory, are increasingly recognized as potential interdisciplinary frameworks whenever systems are subject to long-range interactions and memory. Such settings are characterized by non-local interactions evolving in a non-Euclidean fractal/multi-fractal space-time making their behavior nonextensive. After summarizing the theoretical foundations from first principles, along with a discussion of entropy bifurcation and duality in nonextensive systems, we focus on selected significant astrophysical consequences. Those include the gravitational equilibria of dark matter (DM) and hot gas in clustered structures, the dark energy(DE) negative pressure landscape governed by the highest degree of mutual correlations and the hierarchy of discrete cosmic structure scales, available upon extremizing the generalized nonextensive link entropy in a homogeneous growing network.

Using the principle of entropy maximization to infer genetic interaction networks from gene expression patterns.

PubMed

Lezon, Timothy R; Banavar, Jayanth R; Cieplak, Marek; Maritan, Amos; Fedoroff, Nina V

2006-12-12

We describe a method based on the principle of entropy maximization to identify the gene interaction network with the highest probability of giving rise to experimentally observed transcript profiles. In its simplest form, the method yields the pairwise gene interaction network, but it can also be extended to deduce higher-order interactions. Analysis of microarray data from genes in Saccharomyces cerevisiae chemostat cultures exhibiting energy metabolic oscillations identifies a gene interaction network that reflects the intracellular communication pathways that adjust cellular metabolic activity and cell division to the limiting nutrient conditions that trigger metabolic oscillations. The success of the present approach in extracting meaningful genetic connections suggests that the maximum entropy principle is a useful concept for understanding living systems, as it is for other complex, nonequilibrium systems.

Better bounds on optimal measurement and entanglement recovery, with applications to uncertainty and monogamy relations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renes, Joseph M.

2017-10-01

We extend the recent bounds of Sason and Verdú relating Rényi entropy and Bayesian hypothesis testing (arXiv:1701.01974.) to the quantum domain and show that they have a number of different applications. First, we obtain a sharper bound relating the optimal probability of correctly distinguishing elements of an ensemble of states to that of the pretty good measurement, and an analogous bound for optimal and pretty good entanglement recovery. Second, we obtain bounds relating optimal guessing and entanglement recovery to the fidelity of the state with a product state, which then leads to tight tripartite uncertainty and monogamy relations.

Entropy, Ergodicity, and Stem Cell Multipotency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridden, Sonya J.; Chang, Hannah H.; Zygalakis, Konstantinos C.; MacArthur, Ben D.

2015-11-01

Populations of mammalian stem cells commonly exhibit considerable cell-cell variability. However, the functional role of this diversity is unclear. Here, we analyze expression fluctuations of the stem cell surface marker Sca1 in mouse hematopoietic progenitor cells using a simple stochastic model and find that the observed dynamics naturally lie close to a critical state, thereby producing a diverse population that is able to respond rapidly to environmental changes. We propose an information-theoretic interpretation of these results that views cellular multipotency as an instance of maximum entropy statistical inference.

Nonequilibrium-thermodynamics approach to open quantum systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semin, Vitalii; Petruccione, Francesco

2014-11-01

Open quantum systems are studied from the thermodynamical point of view unifying the principle of maximum informational entropy and the hypothesis of relaxation times hierarchy. The result of the unification is a non-Markovian and local-in-time master equation that provides a direct connection for dynamical and thermodynamical properties of open quantum systems. The power of the approach is illustrated by the application to the damped harmonic oscillator and the damped driven two-level system, resulting in analytical expressions for the non-Markovian and nonequilibrium entropy and inverse temperature.

Third law of thermodynamics in the presence of a heat flux

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Camacho, J.

1995-01-01

Following a maximum entropy formalism, we study a one-dimensional crystal under a heat flux. We obtain the phonon distribution function and evaluate the nonequilibrium temperature, the specific heat, and the entropy as functions of the internal energy and the heat flux, in both the quantum and the classical limits. Some analogies between the behavior of equilibrium systems at low absolute temperature and nonequilibrium steady states under high values of the heat flux are shown, which point to a possible generalization of the third law in nonequilibrium situations.

The existence of negative absolute temperatures in Axelrod’s social influence model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villegas-Febres, J. C.; Olivares-Rivas, W.

2008-06-01

We introduce the concept of temperature as an order parameter in the standard Axelrod’s social influence model. It is defined as the relation between suitably defined entropy and energy functions, T=(. We show that at the critical point, where the order/disorder transition occurs, this absolute temperature changes in sign. At this point, which corresponds to the transition homogeneous/heterogeneous culture, the entropy of the system shows a maximum. We discuss the relationship between the temperature and other properties of the model in terms of cultural traits.

Entropy of spatial network ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coon, Justin P.; Dettmann, Carl P.; Georgiou, Orestis

2018-04-01

We analyze complexity in spatial network ensembles through the lens of graph entropy. Mathematically, we model a spatial network as a soft random geometric graph, i.e., a graph with two sources of randomness, namely nodes located randomly in space and links formed independently between pairs of nodes with probability given by a specified function (the "pair connection function") of their mutual distance. We consider the general case where randomness arises in node positions as well as pairwise connections (i.e., for a given pair distance, the corresponding edge state is a random variable). Classical random geometric graph and exponential graph models can be recovered in certain limits. We derive a simple bound for the entropy of a spatial network ensemble and calculate the conditional entropy of an ensemble given the node location distribution for hard and soft (probabilistic) pair connection functions. Under this formalism, we derive the connection function that yields maximum entropy under general constraints. Finally, we apply our analytical framework to study two practical examples: ad hoc wireless networks and the US flight network. Through the study of these examples, we illustrate that both exhibit properties that are indicative of nearly maximally entropic ensembles.

Quantitative comparison of alternative methods for coarse-graining biological networks

PubMed Central

Bowman, Gregory R.; Meng, Luming; Huang, Xuhui

2013-01-01

Markov models and master equations are a powerful means of modeling dynamic processes like protein conformational changes. However, these models are often difficult to understand because of the enormous number of components and connections between them. Therefore, a variety of methods have been developed to facilitate understanding by coarse-graining these complex models. Here, we employ Bayesian model comparison to determine which of these coarse-graining methods provides the models that are most faithful to the original set of states. We find that the Bayesian agglomerative clustering engine and the hierarchical Nyström expansion graph (HNEG) typically provide the best performance. Surprisingly, the original Perron cluster cluster analysis (PCCA) method often provides the next best results, outperforming the newer PCCA+ method and the most probable paths algorithm. We also show that the differences between the models are qualitatively significant, rather than being minor shifts in the boundaries between states. The performance of the methods correlates well with the entropy of the resulting coarse-grainings, suggesting that finding states with more similar populations (i.e., avoiding low population states that may just be noise) gives better results. PMID:24089717

Analysis of statistical and standard algorithms for detecting muscle onset with surface electromyography

PubMed Central

Tweedell, Andrew J.; Haynes, Courtney A.

2017-01-01

The timing of muscle activity is a commonly applied analytic method to understand how the nervous system controls movement. This study systematically evaluates six classes of standard and statistical algorithms to determine muscle onset in both experimental surface electromyography (EMG) and simulated EMG with a known onset time. Eighteen participants had EMG collected from the biceps brachii and vastus lateralis while performing a biceps curl or knee extension, respectively. Three established methods and three statistical methods for EMG onset were evaluated. Linear envelope, Teager-Kaiser energy operator + linear envelope and sample entropy were the established methods evaluated while general time series mean/variance, sequential and batch processing of parametric and nonparametric tools, and Bayesian changepoint analysis were the statistical techniques used. Visual EMG onset (experimental data) and objective EMG onset (simulated data) were compared with algorithmic EMG onset via root mean square error and linear regression models for stepwise elimination of inferior algorithms. The top algorithms for both data types were analyzed for their mean agreement with the gold standard onset and evaluation of 95% confidence intervals. The top algorithms were all Bayesian changepoint analysis iterations where the parameter of the prior (p0) was zero. The best performing Bayesian algorithms were p0 = 0 and a posterior probability for onset determination at 60–90%. While existing algorithms performed reasonably, the Bayesian changepoint analysis methodology provides greater reliability and accuracy when determining the singular onset of EMG activity in a time series. Further research is needed to determine if this class of algorithms perform equally well when the time series has multiple bursts of muscle activity. PMID:28489897

Enthalpy-entropy compensation for the solubility of drugs in solvent mixtures: paracetamol, acetanilide, and nalidixic acid in dioxane-water.

PubMed

Bustamante, P; Romero, S; Pena, A; Escalera, B; Reillo, A

1998-12-01

In earlier work, a nonlinear enthalpy-entropy compensation was observed for the solubility of phenacetin in dioxane-water mixtures. This effect had not been earlier reported for the solubility of drugs in solvent mixtures. To gain insight into the compensation effect, the behavior of the apparent thermodynamic magnitudes for the solubility of paracetamol, acetanilide, and nalidixic acid is studied in this work. The solubility of these drugs was measured at several temperatures in dioxane-water mixtures. DSC analysis was performed on the original powders and on the solid phases after equilibration with the solvent mixture. The thermal properties of the solid phases did not show significant changes. The three drugs display a solubility maximum against the cosolvent ratio. The solubility peaks of acetanilide and nalidixic acid shift to a more polar region at the higher temperatures. Nonlinear van't Hoff plots were observed for nalidixic acid whereas acetanilide and paracetamol show linear behavior at the temperature range studied. The apparent enthalpies of solution are endothermic going through a maximum at 50% dioxane. Two different mechanisms, entropy and enthalpy, are suggested to be the driving forces that increase the solubility of the three drugs. Solubility is entropy controlled at the water-rich region (0-50% dioxane) and enthalpy controlled at the dioxane-rich region (50-100% dioxane). The enthalpy-entropy compensation analysis also suggests that two different mechanisms, dependent on cosolvent ratio, are involved in the solubility enhancement of the three drugs. The plots of deltaH versus deltaG are nonlinear, and the slope changes from positive to negative above 50% dioxane. The compensation effect for the thermodynamic magnitudes of transfer from water to the aqueous mixtures can be described by a common empirical nonlinear relationship, with the exception of paracetamol, which follows a separate linear relationship at dioxane ratios above 50%. The results corroborate earlier findings with phenacetin. The similar pattern shown by the drugs studied suggests that the nonlinear enthalpy-entropy compensation effect may be characteristic of the solubility of semipolar drugs in dioxane-water mixtures.

Efficient reliability analysis of structures with the rotational quasi-symmetric point- and the maximum entropy methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jun; Dang, Chao; Kong, Fan

2017-10-01

This paper presents a new method for efficient structural reliability analysis. In this method, a rotational quasi-symmetric point method (RQ-SPM) is proposed for evaluating the fractional moments of the performance function. Then, the derivation of the performance function's probability density function (PDF) is carried out based on the maximum entropy method in which constraints are specified in terms of fractional moments. In this regard, the probability of failure can be obtained by a simple integral over the performance function's PDF. Six examples, including a finite element-based reliability analysis and a dynamic system with strong nonlinearity, are used to illustrate the efficacy of the proposed method. All the computed results are compared with those by Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). It is found that the proposed method can provide very accurate results with low computational effort.

Application of the maximum entropy principle to determine ensembles of intrinsically disordered proteins from residual dipolar couplings.

PubMed

Sanchez-Martinez, M; Crehuet, R

2014-12-21

We present a method based on the maximum entropy principle that can re-weight an ensemble of protein structures based on data from residual dipolar couplings (RDCs). The RDCs of intrinsically disordered proteins (IDPs) provide information on the secondary structure elements present in an ensemble; however even two sets of RDCs are not enough to fully determine the distribution of conformations, and the force field used to generate the structures has a pervasive influence on the refined ensemble. Two physics-based coarse-grained force fields, Profasi and Campari, are able to predict the secondary structure elements present in an IDP, but even after including the RDC data, the re-weighted ensembles differ between both force fields. Thus the spread of IDP ensembles highlights the need for better force fields. We distribute our algorithm in an open-source Python code.