A general Bayesian framework for calibrating and evaluating stochastic models of annual multi-site hydrological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frost, Andrew J.; Thyer, Mark A.; Srikanthan, R.; Kuczera, George

2007-07-01

SummaryMulti-site simulation of hydrological data are required for drought risk assessment of large multi-reservoir water supply systems. In this paper, a general Bayesian framework is presented for the calibration and evaluation of multi-site hydrological data at annual timescales. Models included within this framework are the hidden Markov model (HMM) and the widely used lag-1 autoregressive (AR(1)) model. These models are extended by the inclusion of a Box-Cox transformation and a spatial correlation function in a multi-site setting. Parameter uncertainty is evaluated using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Models are evaluated by their ability to reproduce a range of important extreme statistics and compared using Bayesian model selection techniques which evaluate model probabilities. The case study, using multi-site annual rainfall data situated within catchments which contribute to Sydney's main water supply, provided the following results: Firstly, in terms of model probabilities and diagnostics, the inclusion of the Box-Cox transformation was preferred. Secondly the AR(1) and HMM performed similarly, while some other proposed AR(1)/HMM models with regionally pooled parameters had greater posterior probability than these two models. The practical significance of parameter and model uncertainty was illustrated using a case study involving drought security analysis for urban water supply. It was shown that ignoring parameter uncertainty resulted in a significant overestimate of reservoir yield and an underestimation of system vulnerability to severe drought.

A simplified gross primary production and evapotranspiration model for boreal coniferous forests - is a generic calibration sufficient?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minunno, F.; Peltoniemi, M.; Launiainen, S.; Aurela, M.; Lindroth, A.; Lohila, A.; Mammarella, I.; Minkkinen, K.; Mäkelä, A.

2015-07-01

The problem of model complexity has been lively debated in environmental sciences as well as in the forest modelling community. Simple models are less input demanding and their calibration involves a lower number of parameters, but they might be suitable only at local scale. In this work we calibrated a simplified ecosystem process model (PRELES) to data from multiple sites and we tested if PRELES can be used at regional scale to estimate the carbon and water fluxes of Boreal conifer forests. We compared a multi-site (M-S) with site-specific (S-S) calibrations. Model calibrations and evaluations were carried out by the means of the Bayesian method; Bayesian calibration (BC) and Bayesian model comparison (BMC) were used to quantify the uncertainty in model parameters and model structure. To evaluate model performances BMC results were combined with more classical analysis of model-data mismatch (M-DM). Evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP) measurements collected in 10 sites of Finland and Sweden were used in the study. Calibration results showed that similar estimates were obtained for the parameters at which model outputs are most sensitive. No significant differences were encountered in the predictions of the multi-site and site-specific versions of PRELES with exception of a site with agricultural history (Alkkia). Although PRELES predicted GPP better than evapotranspiration, we concluded that the model can be reliably used at regional scale to simulate carbon and water fluxes of Boreal forests. Our analyses underlined also the importance of using long and carefully collected flux datasets in model calibration. In fact, even a single site can provide model calibrations that can be applied at a wider spatial scale, since it covers a wide range of variability in climatic conditions.

Bayesian approach for three-dimensional aquifer characterization at the Hanford 300 Area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murakami, Haruko; Chen, X.; Hahn, Melanie S.

2010-10-21

This study presents a stochastic, three-dimensional characterization of a heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity field within DOE's Hanford 300 Area site, Washington, by assimilating large-scale, constant-rate injection test data with small-scale, three-dimensional electromagnetic borehole flowmeter (EBF) measurement data. We first inverted the injection test data to estimate the transmissivity field, using zeroth-order temporal moments of pressure buildup curves. We applied a newly developed Bayesian geostatistical inversion framework, the method of anchored distributions (MAD), to obtain a joint posterior distribution of geostatistical parameters and local log-transmissivities at multiple locations. The unique aspects of MAD that make it suitable for this purpose are itsmore » ability to integrate multi-scale, multi-type data within a Bayesian framework and to compute a nonparametric posterior distribution. After we combined the distribution of transmissivities with depth-discrete relative-conductivity profile from EBF data, we inferred the three-dimensional geostatistical parameters of the log-conductivity field, using the Bayesian model-based geostatistics. Such consistent use of the Bayesian approach throughout the procedure enabled us to systematically incorporate data uncertainty into the final posterior distribution. The method was tested in a synthetic study and validated using the actual data that was not part of the estimation. Results showed broader and skewed posterior distributions of geostatistical parameters except for the mean, which suggests the importance of inferring the entire distribution to quantify the parameter uncertainty.« less

Psychological Needs, Engagement, and Work Intentions: A Bayesian Multi-Measurement Mediation Approach and Implications for HRD

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shuck, Brad; Zigarmi, Drea; Owen, Jesse

2015-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to empirically examine the utility of self-determination theory (SDT) within the engagement-performance linkage. Design/methodology/approach: Bayesian multi-measurement mediation modeling was used to estimate the relation between SDT, engagement and a proxy measure of performance (e.g. work intentions) (N =…

Period-dependent source rupture behavior of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake estimated by multi period-band Bayesian waveform inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubo, H.; Asano, K.; Iwata, T.; Aoi, S.

2014-12-01

Previous studies for the period-dependent source characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (e.g., Koper et al., 2011; Lay et al., 2012) were based on the short and long period source models using different method. Kubo et al. (2013) obtained source models of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake using multi period-bands waveform data by a common inversion method and discussed its period-dependent source characteristics. In this study, to achieve more in detail spatiotemporal source rupture behavior of this event, we introduce a new fault surface model having finer sub-fault size and estimate the source models in multi period-bands using a Bayesian inversion method combined with a multi-time-window method. Three components of velocity waveforms at 25 stations of K-NET, KiK-net, and F-net of NIED are used in this analysis. The target period band is 10-100 s. We divide this period band into three period bands (10-25 s, 25-50 s, and 50-100 s) and estimate a kinematic source model in each period band using a Bayesian inversion method with MCMC sampling (e.g., Fukuda & Johnson, 2008; Minson et al., 2013, 2014). The parameterization of spatiotemporal slip distribution follows the multi-time-window method (Hartzell & Heaton, 1983). The Green's functions are calculated by the 3D FDM (GMS; Aoi & Fujiwara, 1999) using a 3D velocity structure model (JIVSM; Koketsu et al., 2012). The assumed fault surface model is based on the Pacific plate boundary of JIVSM and is divided into 384 subfaults of about 16 * 16 km^2. The estimated source models in multi period-bands show the following source image: (1) First deep rupture off Miyagi at 0-60 s toward down-dip mostly radiating relatively short period (10-25 s) seismic waves. (2) Shallow rupture off Miyagi at 45-90 s toward up-dip with long duration radiating long period (50-100 s) seismic wave. (3) Second deep rupture off Miyagi at 60-105 s toward down-dip radiating longer period seismic waves then that of the first deep rupture. (4) Deep rupture off Fukushima at 90-135 s. The dominant-period difference of the seismic-wave radiation between two deep ruptures off Miyagi may result from the mechanism that small-scale heterogeneities on the fault are removed by the first rupture. This difference can be also interpreted by the concept of multi-scale dynamic rupture (Ide & Aochi, 2005).

Bayesian ionospheric multi-instrument 3D tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norberg, Johannes; Vierinen, Juha; Roininen, Lassi

2017-04-01

The tomographic reconstruction of ionospheric electron densities is an inverse problem that cannot be solved without relatively strong regularising additional information. % Especially the vertical electron density profile is determined predominantly by the regularisation. % %Often utilised regularisations in ionospheric tomography include smoothness constraints and iterative methods with initial ionospheric models. % Despite its crucial role, the regularisation is often hidden in the algorithm as a numerical procedure without physical understanding. % % The Bayesian methodology provides an interpretative approach for the problem, as the regularisation can be given in a physically meaningful and quantifiable prior probability distribution. % The prior distribution can be based on ionospheric physics, other available ionospheric measurements and their statistics. % Updating the prior with measurements results as the posterior distribution that carries all the available information combined. % From the posterior distribution, the most probable state of the ionosphere can then be solved with the corresponding probability intervals. % Altogether, the Bayesian methodology provides understanding on how strong the given regularisation is, what is the information gained with the measurements and how reliable the final result is. % In addition, the combination of different measurements and temporal development can be taken into account in a very intuitive way. However, a direct implementation of the Bayesian approach requires inversion of large covariance matrices resulting in computational infeasibility. % In the presented method, Gaussian Markov random fields are used to form a sparse matrix approximations for the covariances. % The approach makes the problem computationally feasible while retaining the probabilistic and physical interpretation. Here, the Bayesian method with Gaussian Markov random fields is applied for ionospheric 3D tomography over Northern Europe. % Multi-instrument measurements are utilised from TomoScand receiver network for Low Earth orbit beacon satellite signals, GNSS receiver networks, as well as from EISCAT ionosondes and incoherent scatter radars. % %The performance is demonstrated in three-dimensional spatial domain with temporal development also taken into account.

eDNAoccupancy: An R package for multi-scale occupancy modeling of environmental DNA data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert; Erickson, Richard A.

2017-01-01

In this article we describe eDNAoccupancy, an R package for fitting Bayesian, multi-scale occupancy models. These models are appropriate for occupancy surveys that include three, nested levels of sampling: primary sample units within a study area, secondary sample units collected from each primary unit, and replicates of each secondary sample unit. This design is commonly used in occupancy surveys of environmental DNA (eDNA). eDNAoccupancy allows users to specify and fit multi-scale occupancy models with or without covariates, to estimate posterior summaries of occurrence and detection probabilities, and to compare different models using Bayesian model-selection criteria. We illustrate these features by analyzing two published data sets: eDNA surveys of a fungal pathogen of amphibians and eDNA surveys of an endangered fish species.

Application of Multiple Imputation for Missing Values in Three-Way Three-Mode Multi-Environment Trial Data

PubMed Central

Tian, Ting; McLachlan, Geoffrey J.; Dieters, Mark J.; Basford, Kaye E.

2015-01-01

It is a common occurrence in plant breeding programs to observe missing values in three-way three-mode multi-environment trial (MET) data. We proposed modifications of models for estimating missing observations for these data arrays, and developed a novel approach in terms of hierarchical clustering. Multiple imputation (MI) was used in four ways, multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering, normal distribution model, normal regression model, and predictive mean match. The later three models used both Bayesian analysis and non-Bayesian analysis, while the first approach used a clustering procedure with randomly selected attributes and assigned real values from the nearest neighbour to the one with missing observations. Different proportions of data entries in six complete datasets were randomly selected to be missing and the MI methods were compared based on the efficiency and accuracy of estimating those values. The results indicated that the models using Bayesian analysis had slightly higher accuracy of estimation performance than those using non-Bayesian analysis but they were more time-consuming. However, the novel approach of multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering demonstrated the overall best performances. PMID:26689369

Application of Multiple Imputation for Missing Values in Three-Way Three-Mode Multi-Environment Trial Data.

PubMed

Tian, Ting; McLachlan, Geoffrey J; Dieters, Mark J; Basford, Kaye E

2015-01-01

It is a common occurrence in plant breeding programs to observe missing values in three-way three-mode multi-environment trial (MET) data. We proposed modifications of models for estimating missing observations for these data arrays, and developed a novel approach in terms of hierarchical clustering. Multiple imputation (MI) was used in four ways, multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering, normal distribution model, normal regression model, and predictive mean match. The later three models used both Bayesian analysis and non-Bayesian analysis, while the first approach used a clustering procedure with randomly selected attributes and assigned real values from the nearest neighbour to the one with missing observations. Different proportions of data entries in six complete datasets were randomly selected to be missing and the MI methods were compared based on the efficiency and accuracy of estimating those values. The results indicated that the models using Bayesian analysis had slightly higher accuracy of estimation performance than those using non-Bayesian analysis but they were more time-consuming. However, the novel approach of multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering demonstrated the overall best performances.

Predictability of extreme weather events for NE U.S.: improvement of the numerical prediction using a Bayesian regression approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Hartman, B.; Kallos, G. B.

2015-12-01

Weather prediction accuracy has become very important for the Northeast U.S. given the devastating effects of extreme weather events in the recent years. Weather forecasting systems are used towards building strategies to prevent catastrophic losses for human lives and the environment. Concurrently, weather forecast tools and techniques have evolved with improved forecast skill as numerical prediction techniques are strengthened by increased super-computing resources. In this study, we examine the combination of two state-of-the-science atmospheric models (WRF and RAMS/ICLAMS) by utilizing a Bayesian regression approach to improve the prediction of extreme weather events for NE U.S. The basic concept behind the Bayesian regression approach is to take advantage of the strengths of two atmospheric modeling systems and, similar to the multi-model ensemble approach, limit their weaknesses which are related to systematic and random errors in the numerical prediction of physical processes. The first part of this study is focused on retrospective simulations of seventeen storms that affected the region in the period 2004-2013. Optimal variances are estimated by minimizing the root mean square error and are applied to out-of-sample weather events. The applicability and usefulness of this approach are demonstrated by conducting an error analysis based on in-situ observations from meteorological stations of the National Weather Service (NWS) for wind speed and wind direction, and NCEP Stage IV radar data, mosaicked from the regional multi-sensor for precipitation. The preliminary results indicate a significant improvement in the statistical metrics of the modeled-observed pairs for meteorological variables using various combinations of the sixteen events as predictors of the seventeenth. This presentation will illustrate the implemented methodology and the obtained results for wind speed, wind direction and precipitation, as well as set the research steps that will be followed in the future.

Multi-level Bayesian safety analysis with unprocessed Automatic Vehicle Identification data for an urban expressway.

PubMed

Shi, Qi; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Yu, Rongjie

2016-03-01

In traffic safety studies, crash frequency modeling of total crashes is the cornerstone before proceeding to more detailed safety evaluation. The relationship between crash occurrence and factors such as traffic flow and roadway geometric characteristics has been extensively explored for a better understanding of crash mechanisms. In this study, a multi-level Bayesian framework has been developed in an effort to identify the crash contributing factors on an urban expressway in the Central Florida area. Two types of traffic data from the Automatic Vehicle Identification system, which are the processed data capped at speed limit and the unprocessed data retaining the original speed were incorporated in the analysis along with road geometric information. The model framework was proposed to account for the hierarchical data structure and the heterogeneity among the traffic and roadway geometric data. Multi-level and random parameters models were constructed and compared with the Negative Binomial model under the Bayesian inference framework. Results showed that the unprocessed traffic data was superior. Both multi-level models and random parameters models outperformed the Negative Binomial model and the models with random parameters achieved the best model fitting. The contributing factors identified imply that on the urban expressway lower speed and higher speed variation could significantly increase the crash likelihood. Other geometric factors were significant including auxiliary lanes and horizontal curvature. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting human immunodeficiency virus inhibitors using multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers.

PubMed

Borchani, Hanen; Bielza, Concha; Toro, Carlos; Larrañaga, Pedro

2013-03-01

Our aim is to use multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers in order to predict the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) reverse transcriptase and protease inhibitors given an input set of respective resistance mutations that an HIV patient carries. Multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers (MBCs) are probabilistic graphical models especially designed to solve multi-dimensional classification problems, where each input instance in the data set has to be assigned simultaneously to multiple output class variables that are not necessarily binary. In this paper, we introduce a new method, named MB-MBC, for learning MBCs from data by determining the Markov blanket around each class variable using the HITON algorithm. Our method is applied to both reverse transcriptase and protease data sets obtained from the Stanford HIV-1 database. Regarding the prediction of antiretroviral combination therapies, the experimental study shows promising results in terms of classification accuracy compared with state-of-the-art MBC learning algorithms. For reverse transcriptase inhibitors, we get 71% and 11% in mean and global accuracy, respectively; while for protease inhibitors, we get more than 84% and 31% in mean and global accuracy, respectively. In addition, the analysis of MBC graphical structures lets us gain insight into both known and novel interactions between reverse transcriptase and protease inhibitors and their respective resistance mutations. MB-MBC algorithm is a valuable tool to analyze the HIV-1 reverse transcriptase and protease inhibitors prediction problem and to discover interactions within and between these two classes of inhibitors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using Bayesian neural networks to classify forest scenes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vehtari, Aki; Heikkonen, Jukka; Lampinen, Jouko; Juujarvi, Jouni

1998-10-01

We present results that compare the performance of Bayesian learning methods for neural networks on the task of classifying forest scenes into trees and background. Classification task is demanding due to the texture richness of the trees, occlusions of the forest scene objects and diverse lighting conditions under operation. This makes it difficult to determine which are optimal image features for the classification. A natural way to proceed is to extract many different types of potentially suitable features, and to evaluate their usefulness in later processing stages. One approach to cope with large number of features is to use Bayesian methods to control the model complexity. Bayesian learning uses a prior on model parameters, combines this with evidence from a training data, and the integrates over the resulting posterior to make predictions. With this method, we can use large networks and many features without fear of overfitting. For this classification task we compare two Bayesian learning methods for multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural networks: (1) The evidence framework of MacKay uses a Gaussian approximation to the posterior weight distribution and maximizes with respect to hyperparameters. (2) In a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method due to Neal, the posterior distribution of the network parameters is numerically integrated using the MCMC method. As baseline classifiers for comparison we use (3) MLP early stop committee, (4) K-nearest-neighbor and (5) Classification And Regression Tree.

Model selection and assessment for multi­-species occupancy models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Broms, Kristin M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Fitzpatrick, Ryan M.

2016-01-01

While multi-species occupancy models (MSOMs) are emerging as a popular method for analyzing biodiversity data, formal checking and validation approaches for this class of models have lagged behind. Concurrent with the rise in application of MSOMs among ecologists, a quiet regime shift is occurring in Bayesian statistics where predictive model comparison approaches are experiencing a resurgence. Unlike single-species occupancy models that use integrated likelihoods, MSOMs are usually couched in a Bayesian framework and contain multiple levels. Standard model checking and selection methods are often unreliable in this setting and there is only limited guidance in the ecological literature for this class of models. We examined several different contemporary Bayesian hierarchical approaches for checking and validating MSOMs and applied these methods to a freshwater aquatic study system in Colorado, USA, to better understand the diversity and distributions of plains fishes. Our findings indicated distinct differences among model selection approaches, with cross-validation techniques performing the best in terms of prediction.

Assimilating multi-source uncertainties of a parsimonious conceptual hydrological model using hierarchical Bayesian modeling

Treesearch

Wei Wu; James Clark; James Vose

2010-01-01

Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) modeling allows for multiple sources of uncertainty by factoring complex relationships into conditional distributions that can be used to draw inference and make predictions. We applied an HB model to estimate the parameters and state variables of a parsimonious hydrological model – GR4J – by coherently assimilating the uncertainties from the...

Multi-Detection Events, Probability Density Functions, and Reduced Location Area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eslinger, Paul W.; Schrom, Brian T.

2016-03-01

Abstract Several efforts have been made in the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) community to assess the benefits of combining detections of radionuclides to improve the location estimates available from atmospheric transport modeling (ATM) backtrack calculations. We present a Bayesian estimation approach rather than a simple dilution field of regard approach to allow xenon detections and non-detections to be combined mathematically. This system represents one possible probabilistic approach to radionuclide event formation. Application of this method to a recent interesting radionuclide event shows a substantial reduction in the location uncertainty of that event.

Multiple utility constrained multi-objective programs using Bayesian theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbasian, Pooneh; Mahdavi-Amiri, Nezam; Fazlollahtabar, Hamed

2018-03-01

A utility function is an important tool for representing a DM's preference. We adjoin utility functions to multi-objective optimization problems. In current studies, usually one utility function is used for each objective function. Situations may arise for a goal to have multiple utility functions. Here, we consider a constrained multi-objective problem with each objective having multiple utility functions. We induce the probability of the utilities for each objective function using Bayesian theory. Illustrative examples considering dependence and independence of variables are worked through to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed model.

Bayesian Multi-Trait Analysis Reveals a Useful Tool to Increase Oil Concentration and to Decrease Toxicity in Jatropha curcas L.

PubMed Central

Silva Junqueira, Vinícius; de Azevedo Peixoto, Leonardo; Galvêas Laviola, Bruno; Lopes Bhering, Leonardo; Mendonça, Simone; Agostini Costa, Tania da Silveira; Antoniassi, Rosemar

2016-01-01

The biggest challenge for jatropha breeding is to identify superior genotypes that present high seed yield and seed oil content with reduced toxicity levels. Therefore, the objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for three important traits (weight of 100 seed, oil seed content, and phorbol ester concentration), and to select superior genotypes to be used as progenitors in jatropha breeding. Additionally, the genotypic values and the genetic parameters estimated under the Bayesian multi-trait approach were used to evaluate different selection indices scenarios of 179 half-sib families. Three different scenarios and economic weights were considered. It was possible to simultaneously reduce toxicity and increase seed oil content and weight of 100 seed by using index selection based on genotypic value estimated by the Bayesian multi-trait approach. Indeed, we identified two families that present these characteristics by evaluating genetic diversity using the Ward clustering method, which suggested nine homogenous clusters. Future researches must integrate the Bayesian multi-trait methods with realized relationship matrix, aiming to build accurate selection indices models. PMID:27281340

Quantum Bayesian networks with application to games displaying Parrondo's paradox

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pejic, Michael

Bayesian networks and their accompanying graphical models are widely used for prediction and analysis across many disciplines. We will reformulate these in terms of linear maps. This reformulation will suggest a natural extension, which we will show is equivalent to standard textbook quantum mechanics. Therefore, this extension will be termed quantum. However, the term quantum should not be taken to imply this extension is necessarily only of utility in situations traditionally thought of as in the domain of quantum mechanics. In principle, it may be employed in any modelling situation, say forecasting the weather or the stock market---it is up to experiment to determine if this extension is useful in practice. Even restricting to the domain of quantum mechanics, with this new formulation the advantages of Bayesian networks can be maintained for models incorporating quantum and mixed classical-quantum behavior. The use of these will be illustrated by various basic examples. Parrondo's paradox refers to the situation where two, multi-round games with a fixed winning criteria, both with probability greater than one-half for one player to win, are combined. Using a possibly biased coin to determine the rule to employ for each round, paradoxically, the previously losing player now wins the combined game with probabilitygreater than one-half. Using the extended Bayesian networks, we will formulate and analyze classical observed, classical hidden, and quantum versions of a game that displays this paradox, finding bounds for the discrepancy from naive expectations for the occurrence of the paradox. A quantum paradox inspired by Parrondo's paradox will also be analyzed. We will prove a bound for the discrepancy from naive expectations for this paradox as well. Games involving quantum walks that achieve this bound will be presented.

A Bayesian Framework of Uncertainties Integration in 3D Geological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, D.; Liu, X.

2017-12-01

3D geological model can describe complicated geological phenomena in an intuitive way while its application may be limited by uncertain factors. Great progress has been made over the years, lots of studies decompose the uncertainties of geological model to analyze separately, while ignored the comprehensive impacts of multi-source uncertainties. Great progress has been made over the years, while lots of studies ignored the comprehensive impacts of multi-source uncertainties when analyzed them item by item from each source. To evaluate the synthetical uncertainty, we choose probability distribution to quantify uncertainty, and propose a bayesian framework of uncertainties integration. With this framework, we integrated data errors, spatial randomness, and cognitive information into posterior distribution to evaluate synthetical uncertainty of geological model. Uncertainties propagate and cumulate in modeling process, the gradual integration of multi-source uncertainty is a kind of simulation of the uncertainty propagation. Bayesian inference accomplishes uncertainty updating in modeling process. Maximum entropy principle makes a good effect on estimating prior probability distribution, which ensures the prior probability distribution subjecting to constraints supplied by the given information with minimum prejudice. In the end, we obtained a posterior distribution to evaluate synthetical uncertainty of geological model. This posterior distribution represents the synthetical impact of all the uncertain factors on the spatial structure of geological model. The framework provides a solution to evaluate synthetical impact on geological model of multi-source uncertainties and a thought to study uncertainty propagation mechanism in geological modeling.

A Sparse Bayesian Learning Algorithm for White Matter Parameter Estimation from Compressed Multi-shell Diffusion MRI.

PubMed

Pisharady, Pramod Kumar; Sotiropoulos, Stamatios N; Sapiro, Guillermo; Lenglet, Christophe

2017-09-01

We propose a sparse Bayesian learning algorithm for improved estimation of white matter fiber parameters from compressed (under-sampled q-space) multi-shell diffusion MRI data. The multi-shell data is represented in a dictionary form using a non-monoexponential decay model of diffusion, based on continuous gamma distribution of diffusivities. The fiber volume fractions with predefined orientations, which are the unknown parameters, form the dictionary weights. These unknown parameters are estimated with a linear un-mixing framework, using a sparse Bayesian learning algorithm. A localized learning of hyperparameters at each voxel and for each possible fiber orientations improves the parameter estimation. Our experiments using synthetic data from the ISBI 2012 HARDI reconstruction challenge and in-vivo data from the Human Connectome Project demonstrate the improvements.

Model inversion via multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization: a new paradigm for parameter estimation in haemodynamics, and beyond.

PubMed

Perdikaris, Paris; Karniadakis, George Em

2016-05-01

We present a computational framework for model inversion based on multi-fidelity information fusion and Bayesian optimization. The proposed methodology targets the accurate construction of response surfaces in parameter space, and the efficient pursuit to identify global optima while keeping the number of expensive function evaluations at a minimum. We train families of correlated surrogates on available data using Gaussian processes and auto-regressive stochastic schemes, and exploit the resulting predictive posterior distributions within a Bayesian optimization setting. This enables a smart adaptive sampling procedure that uses the predictive posterior variance to balance the exploration versus exploitation trade-off, and is a key enabler for practical computations under limited budgets. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is tested on three parameter estimation problems. The first two involve the calibration of outflow boundary conditions of blood flow simulations in arterial bifurcations using multi-fidelity realizations of one- and three-dimensional models, whereas the last one aims to identify the forcing term that generated a particular solution to an elliptic partial differential equation. © 2016 The Author(s).

Model inversion via multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization: a new paradigm for parameter estimation in haemodynamics, and beyond

PubMed Central

Perdikaris, Paris; Karniadakis, George Em

2016-01-01

We present a computational framework for model inversion based on multi-fidelity information fusion and Bayesian optimization. The proposed methodology targets the accurate construction of response surfaces in parameter space, and the efficient pursuit to identify global optima while keeping the number of expensive function evaluations at a minimum. We train families of correlated surrogates on available data using Gaussian processes and auto-regressive stochastic schemes, and exploit the resulting predictive posterior distributions within a Bayesian optimization setting. This enables a smart adaptive sampling procedure that uses the predictive posterior variance to balance the exploration versus exploitation trade-off, and is a key enabler for practical computations under limited budgets. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is tested on three parameter estimation problems. The first two involve the calibration of outflow boundary conditions of blood flow simulations in arterial bifurcations using multi-fidelity realizations of one- and three-dimensional models, whereas the last one aims to identify the forcing term that generated a particular solution to an elliptic partial differential equation. PMID:27194481

Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koerner, Stephan; Holzaepfel, Frank; Ahmad, Nash'at N.

2015-01-01

Several multi-model ensemble methods are investigated for predicting wake vortex transport and decay. This study is a joint effort between National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt to develop a multi-model ensemble capability using their wake models. An overview of different multi-model ensemble methods and their feasibility for wake applications is presented. The methods include Reliability Ensemble Averaging, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Monte Carlo Simulations. The methodologies are evaluated using data from wake vortex field experiments.

Wavelet extractor: A Bayesian well-tie and wavelet extraction program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunning, James; Glinsky, Michael E.

2006-06-01

We introduce a new open-source toolkit for the well-tie or wavelet extraction problem of estimating seismic wavelets from seismic data, time-to-depth information, and well-log suites. The wavelet extraction model is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and the software will simultaneously estimate wavelet coefficients, other parameters associated with uncertainty in the time-to-depth mapping, positioning errors in the seismic imaging, and useful amplitude-variation-with-offset (AVO) related parameters in multi-stack extractions. It is capable of multi-well, multi-stack extractions, and uses continuous seismic data-cube interpolation to cope with the problem of arbitrary well paths. Velocity constraints in the form of checkshot data, interpreted markers, and sonic logs are integrated in a natural way. The Bayesian formulation allows computation of full posterior uncertainties of the model parameters, and the important problem of the uncertain wavelet span is addressed uses a multi-model posterior developed from Bayesian model selection theory. The wavelet extraction tool is distributed as part of the Delivery seismic inversion toolkit. A simple log and seismic viewing tool is included in the distribution. The code is written in Java, and thus platform independent, but the Seismic Unix (SU) data model makes the inversion particularly suited to Unix/Linux environments. It is a natural companion piece of software to Delivery, having the capacity to produce maximum likelihood wavelet and noise estimates, but will also be of significant utility to practitioners wanting to produce wavelet estimates for other inversion codes or purposes. The generation of full parameter uncertainties is a crucial function for workers wishing to investigate questions of wavelet stability before proceeding to more advanced inversion studies.

How robust are the estimated effects of air pollution on health? Accounting for model uncertainty using Bayesian model averaging.

PubMed

Pannullo, Francesca; Lee, Duncan; Waclawski, Eugene; Leyland, Alastair H

2016-08-01

The long-term impact of air pollution on human health can be estimated from small-area ecological studies in which the health outcome is regressed against air pollution concentrations and other covariates, such as socio-economic deprivation. Socio-economic deprivation is multi-factorial and difficult to measure, and includes aspects of income, education, and housing as well as others. However, these variables are potentially highly correlated, meaning one can either create an overall deprivation index, or use the individual characteristics, which can result in a variety of pollution-health effects. Other aspects of model choice may affect the pollution-health estimate, such as the estimation of pollution, and spatial autocorrelation model. Therefore, we propose a Bayesian model averaging approach to combine the results from multiple statistical models to produce a more robust representation of the overall pollution-health effect. We investigate the relationship between nitrogen dioxide concentrations and cardio-respiratory mortality in West Central Scotland between 2006 and 2012. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Analysis of Nonlinear Structural Equation Models with Nonignorable Missing Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Sik-Yum

2006-01-01

A Bayesian approach is developed for analyzing nonlinear structural equation models with nonignorable missing data. The nonignorable missingness mechanism is specified by a logistic regression model. A hybrid algorithm that combines the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to produce the joint Bayesian estimates of…

Perceptual decision making: drift-diffusion model is equivalent to a Bayesian model

PubMed Central

Bitzer, Sebastian; Park, Hame; Blankenburg, Felix; Kiebel, Stefan J.

2014-01-01

Behavioral data obtained with perceptual decision making experiments are typically analyzed with the drift-diffusion model. This parsimonious model accumulates noisy pieces of evidence toward a decision bound to explain the accuracy and reaction times of subjects. Recently, Bayesian models have been proposed to explain how the brain extracts information from noisy input as typically presented in perceptual decision making tasks. It has long been known that the drift-diffusion model is tightly linked with such functional Bayesian models but the precise relationship of the two mechanisms was never made explicit. Using a Bayesian model, we derived the equations which relate parameter values between these models. In practice we show that this equivalence is useful when fitting multi-subject data. We further show that the Bayesian model suggests different decision variables which all predict equal responses and discuss how these may be discriminated based on neural correlates of accumulated evidence. In addition, we discuss extensions to the Bayesian model which would be difficult to derive for the drift-diffusion model. We suggest that these and other extensions may be highly useful for deriving new experiments which test novel hypotheses. PMID:24616689

APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS TO A LAGRANGIAN PHOTOCHEMICAL AIR QUALITY MODEL. (R824792)

EPA Science Inventory

Uncertainties in ozone concentrations predicted with a Lagrangian photochemical air quality model have been estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) analysis. Bayesian Monte Carlo analysis provides a means of combining subjective "prior" uncertainty estimates developed ...

Application of Dynamic naïve Bayesian classifier to comprehensive drought assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, D. H.; Lee, J. Y.; Lee, J. H.; KIm, T. W.

2017-12-01

Drought monitoring has already been extensively studied due to the widespread impacts and complex causes of drought. The most important component of drought monitoring is to estimate the characteristics and extent of drought by quantitatively measuring the characteristics of drought. Drought assessment considering different aspects of the complicated drought condition and uncertainty of drought index is great significance in accurate drought monitoring. This study used the dynamic Naïve Bayesian Classifier (DNBC) which is an extension of the Hidden Markov Model (HMM), to model and classify drought by using various drought indices for integrated drought assessment. To provide a stable model for combined use of multiple drought indices, this study employed the DNBC to perform multi-index drought assessment by aggregating the effect of different type of drought and considering the inherent uncertainty. Drought classification was performed by the DNBC using several drought indices: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), and Normalized Vegetation Supply Water Index (NVSWI)) that reflect meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought characteristics. Overall results showed that in comparison unidirectional (SPI, SDI, and NVSWI) or multivariate (Composite Drought Index, CDI) drought assessment, the proposed DNBC was able to synthetically classify of drought considering uncertainty. Model provided method for comprehensive drought assessment with combined use of different drought indices.

Inferring the most probable maps of underground utilities using Bayesian mapping model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilal, Muhammad; Khan, Wasiq; Muggleton, Jennifer; Rustighi, Emiliano; Jenks, Hugo; Pennock, Steve R.; Atkins, Phil R.; Cohn, Anthony

2018-03-01

Mapping the Underworld (MTU), a major initiative in the UK, is focused on addressing social, environmental and economic consequences raised from the inability to locate buried underground utilities (such as pipes and cables) by developing a multi-sensor mobile device. The aim of MTU device is to locate different types of buried assets in real time with the use of automated data processing techniques and statutory records. The statutory records, even though typically being inaccurate and incomplete, provide useful prior information on what is buried under the ground and where. However, the integration of information from multiple sensors (raw data) with these qualitative maps and their visualization is challenging and requires the implementation of robust machine learning/data fusion approaches. An approach for automated creation of revised maps was developed as a Bayesian Mapping model in this paper by integrating the knowledge extracted from sensors raw data and available statutory records. The combination of statutory records with the hypotheses from sensors was for initial estimation of what might be found underground and roughly where. The maps were (re)constructed using automated image segmentation techniques for hypotheses extraction and Bayesian classification techniques for segment-manhole connections. The model consisting of image segmentation algorithm and various Bayesian classification techniques (segment recognition and expectation maximization (EM) algorithm) provided robust performance on various simulated as well as real sites in terms of predicting linear/non-linear segments and constructing refined 2D/3D maps.

Mr-Moose: An advanced SED-fitting tool for heterogeneous multi-wavelength datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drouart, G.; Falkendal, T.

2018-04-01

We present the public release of Mr-Moose, a fitting procedure that is able to perform multi-wavelength and multi-object spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting in a Bayesian framework. This procedure is able to handle a large variety of cases, from an isolated source to blended multi-component sources from an heterogeneous dataset (i.e. a range of observation sensitivities and spectral/spatial resolutions). Furthermore, Mr-Moose handles upper-limits during the fitting process in a continuous way allowing models to be gradually less probable as upper limits are approached. The aim is to propose a simple-to-use, yet highly-versatile fitting tool fro handling increasing source complexity when combining multi-wavelength datasets with fully customisable filter/model databases. The complete control of the user is one advantage, which avoids the traditional problems related to the "black box" effect, where parameter or model tunings are impossible and can lead to overfitting and/or over-interpretation of the results. Also, while a basic knowledge of Python and statistics is required, the code aims to be sufficiently user-friendly for non-experts. We demonstrate the procedure on three cases: two artificially-generated datasets and a previous result from the literature. In particular, the most complex case (inspired by a real source, combining Herschel, ALMA and VLA data) in the context of extragalactic SED fitting, makes Mr-Moose a particularly-attractive SED fitting tool when dealing with partially blended sources, without the need for data deconvolution.

MR-MOOSE: an advanced SED-fitting tool for heterogeneous multi-wavelength data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drouart, G.; Falkendal, T.

2018-07-01

We present the public release of MR-MOOSE, a fitting procedure that is able to perform multi-wavelength and multi-object spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting in a Bayesian framework. This procedure is able to handle a large variety of cases, from an isolated source to blended multi-component sources from a heterogeneous data set (i.e. a range of observation sensitivities and spectral/spatial resolutions). Furthermore, MR-MOOSE handles upper limits during the fitting process in a continuous way allowing models to be gradually less probable as upper limits are approached. The aim is to propose a simple-to-use, yet highly versatile fitting tool for handling increasing source complexity when combining multi-wavelength data sets with fully customisable filter/model data bases. The complete control of the user is one advantage, which avoids the traditional problems related to the `black box' effect, where parameter or model tunings are impossible and can lead to overfitting and/or over-interpretation of the results. Also, while a basic knowledge of PYTHON and statistics is required, the code aims to be sufficiently user-friendly for non-experts. We demonstrate the procedure on three cases: two artificially generated data sets and a previous result from the literature. In particular, the most complex case (inspired by a real source, combining Herschel, ALMA, and VLA data) in the context of extragalactic SED fitting makes MR-MOOSE a particularly attractive SED fitting tool when dealing with partially blended sources, without the need for data deconvolution.

A Hierarchical Modeling Approach to Data Analysis and Study Design in a Multi-Site Experimental fMRI Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhou, Bo; Konstorum, Anna; Duong, Thao; Tieu, Kinh H.; Wells, William M.; Brown, Gregory G.; Stern, Hal S.; Shahbaba, Babak

2013-01-01

We propose a hierarchical Bayesian model for analyzing multi-site experimental fMRI studies. Our method takes the hierarchical structure of the data (subjects are nested within sites, and there are multiple observations per subject) into account and allows for modeling between-site variation. Using posterior predictive model checking and model…

Bayesian parameter estimation for the Wnt pathway: an infinite mixture models approach.

PubMed

Koutroumpas, Konstantinos; Ballarini, Paolo; Votsi, Irene; Cournède, Paul-Henry

2016-09-01

Likelihood-free methods, like Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), have been extensively used in model-based statistical inference with intractable likelihood functions. When combined with Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms they constitute a powerful approach for parameter estimation and model selection of mathematical models of complex biological systems. A crucial step in the ABC-SMC algorithms, significantly affecting their performance, is the propagation of a set of parameter vectors through a sequence of intermediate distributions using Markov kernels. In this article, we employ Dirichlet process mixtures (DPMs) to design optimal transition kernels and we present an ABC-SMC algorithm with DPM kernels. We illustrate the use of the proposed methodology using real data for the canonical Wnt signaling pathway. A multi-compartment model of the pathway is developed and it is compared to an existing model. The results indicate that DPMs are more efficient in the exploration of the parameter space and can significantly improve ABC-SMC performance. In comparison to alternative sampling schemes that are commonly used, the proposed approach can bring potential benefits in the estimation of complex multimodal distributions. The method is used to estimate the parameters and the initial state of two models of the Wnt pathway and it is shown that the multi-compartment model fits better the experimental data. Python scripts for the Dirichlet Process Gaussian Mixture model and the Gibbs sampler are available at https://sites.google.com/site/kkoutroumpas/software konstantinos.koutroumpas@ecp.fr. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Enhancing Flood Prediction Reliability Using Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; Merwade, V.

2017-12-01

Uncertainty analysis is an indispensable part of modeling the hydrology and hydrodynamics of non-idealized environmental systems. Compared to reliance on prediction from one model simulation, using on ensemble of predictions that consider uncertainty from different sources is more reliable. In this study, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to Black River watershed in Arkansas and Missouri by combining multi-model simulations to get reliable deterministic water stage and probabilistic inundation extent predictions. The simulation ensemble is generated from 81 LISFLOOD-FP subgrid model configurations that include uncertainty from channel shape, channel width, channel roughness and discharge. Model simulation outputs are trained with observed water stage data during one flood event, and BMA prediction ability is validated for another flood event. Results from this study indicate that BMA does not always outperform all members in the ensemble, but it provides relatively robust deterministic flood stage predictions across the basin. Station based BMA (BMA_S) water stage prediction has better performance than global based BMA (BMA_G) prediction which is superior to the ensemble mean prediction. Additionally, high-frequency flood inundation extent (probability greater than 60%) in BMA_G probabilistic map is more accurate than the probabilistic flood inundation extent based on equal weights.

Bayesian model selection validates a biokinetic model for zirconium processing in humans

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background In radiation protection, biokinetic models for zirconium processing are of crucial importance in dose estimation and further risk analysis for humans exposed to this radioactive substance. They provide limiting values of detrimental effects and build the basis for applications in internal dosimetry, the prediction for radioactive zirconium retention in various organs as well as retrospective dosimetry. Multi-compartmental models are the tool of choice for simulating the processing of zirconium. Although easily interpretable, determining the exact compartment structure and interaction mechanisms is generally daunting. In the context of observing the dynamics of multiple compartments, Bayesian methods provide efficient tools for model inference and selection. Results We are the first to apply a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to compute Bayes factors for the evaluation of two competing models for zirconium processing in the human body after ingestion. Based on in vivo measurements of human plasma and urine levels we were able to show that a recently published model is superior to the standard model of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. The Bayes factors were estimated by means of the numerically stable thermodynamic integration in combination with a recently developed copula-based Metropolis-Hastings sampler. Conclusions In contrast to the standard model the novel model predicts lower accretion of zirconium in bones. This results in lower levels of noxious doses for exposed individuals. Moreover, the Bayesian approach allows for retrospective dose assessment, including credible intervals for the initially ingested zirconium, in a significantly more reliable fashion than previously possible. All methods presented here are readily applicable to many modeling tasks in systems biology. PMID:22863152

Cultural Geography Model Validation

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

the Cultural Geography Model (CGM), a government owned, open source multi - agent system utilizing Bayesian networks, queuing systems, the Theory of...referent determined either from theory or SME opinion. 4. CGM Overview The CGM is a government-owned, open source, data driven multi - agent social...HSCB, validation, social network analysis ABSTRACT: In the current warfighting environment , the military needs robust modeling and simulation (M&S

Multi-atlas label fusion using hybrid of discriminative and generative classifiers for segmentation of cardiac MR images.

PubMed

Sedai, Suman; Garnavi, Rahil; Roy, Pallab; Xi Liang

2015-08-01

Multi-atlas segmentation first registers each atlas image to the target image and transfers the label of atlas image to the coordinate system of the target image. The transferred labels are then combined, using a label fusion algorithm. In this paper, we propose a novel label fusion method which aggregates discriminative learning and generative modeling for segmentation of cardiac MR images. First, a probabilistic Random Forest classifier is trained as a discriminative model to obtain the prior probability of a label at the given voxel of the target image. Then, a probability distribution of image patches is modeled using Gaussian Mixture Model for each label, providing the likelihood of the voxel belonging to the label. The final label posterior is obtained by combining the classification score and the likelihood score under Bayesian rule. Comparative study performed on MICCAI 2013 SATA Segmentation Challenge demonstrates that our proposed hybrid label fusion algorithm is accurate than other five state-of-the-art label fusion methods. The proposed method obtains dice similarity coefficient of 0.94 and 0.92 in segmenting epicardium and endocardium respectively. Moreover, our label fusion method achieves more accurate segmentation results compared to four other label fusion methods.

Geotechnical parameter spatial distribution stochastic analysis based on multi-precision information assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Rubin, Y.

2014-12-01

Spatial distribution of important geotechnical parameter named compression modulus Es contributes considerably to the understanding of the underlying geological processes and the adequate assessment of the Es mechanics effects for differential settlement of large continuous structure foundation. These analyses should be derived using an assimilating approach that combines in-situ static cone penetration test (CPT) with borehole experiments. To achieve such a task, the Es distribution of stratum of silty clay in region A of China Expo Center (Shanghai) is studied using the Bayesian-maximum entropy method. This method integrates rigorously and efficiently multi-precision of different geotechnical investigations and sources of uncertainty. Single CPT samplings were modeled as a rational probability density curve by maximum entropy theory. Spatial prior multivariate probability density function (PDF) and likelihood PDF of the CPT positions were built by borehole experiments and the potential value of the prediction point, then, preceding numerical integration on the CPT probability density curves, the posterior probability density curve of the prediction point would be calculated by the Bayesian reverse interpolation framework. The results were compared between Gaussian Sequential Stochastic Simulation and Bayesian methods. The differences were also discussed between single CPT samplings of normal distribution and simulated probability density curve based on maximum entropy theory. It is shown that the study of Es spatial distributions can be improved by properly incorporating CPT sampling variation into interpolation process, whereas more informative estimations are generated by considering CPT Uncertainty for the estimation points. Calculation illustrates the significance of stochastic Es characterization in a stratum, and identifies limitations associated with inadequate geostatistical interpolation techniques. This characterization results will provide a multi-precision information assimilation method of other geotechnical parameters.

Modelling the Flow Stress of Alloy 316L using a Multi-Layered Feed Forward Neural Network with Bayesian Regularization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abiriand Bhekisipho Twala, Olufunminiyi

2017-08-01

In this paper, a multilayer feedforward neural network with Bayesian regularization constitutive model is developed for alloy 316L during high strain rate and high temperature plastic deformation. The input variables are strain rate, temperature and strain while the output value is the flow stress of the material. The results show that the use of Bayesian regularized technique reduces the potential of overfitting and overtraining. The prediction quality of the model is thereby improved. The model predictions are in good agreement with experimental measurements. The measurement data used for the network training and model comparison were taken from relevant literature. The developed model is robust as it can be generalized to deformation conditions slightly below or above the training dataset.

A Mixtures-of-Trees Framework for Multi-Label Classification

PubMed Central

Hong, Charmgil; Batal, Iyad; Hauskrecht, Milos

2015-01-01

We propose a new probabilistic approach for multi-label classification that aims to represent the class posterior distribution P(Y|X). Our approach uses a mixture of tree-structured Bayesian networks, which can leverage the computational advantages of conditional tree-structured models and the abilities of mixtures to compensate for tree-structured restrictions. We develop algorithms for learning the model from data and for performing multi-label predictions using the learned model. Experiments on multiple datasets demonstrate that our approach outperforms several state-of-the-art multi-label classification methods. PMID:25927011

Using Bayes factors for multi-factor, biometric authentication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giffin, A.; Skufca, J. D.; Lao, P. A.

2015-01-01

Multi-factor/multi-modal authentication systems are becoming the de facto industry standard. Traditional methods typically use rates that are point estimates and lack a good measure of uncertainty. Additionally, multiple factors are typically fused together in an ad hoc manner. To be consistent, as well as to establish and make proper use of uncertainties, we use a Bayesian method that will update our estimates and uncertainties as new information presents itself. Our algorithm compares competing classes (such as genuine vs. imposter) using Bayes Factors (BF). The importance of this approach is that we not only accept or reject one model (class), but compare it to others to make a decision. We show using a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve that using BF for determining class will always perform at least as well as the traditional combining of factors, such as a voting algorithm. As the uncertainty decreases, the BF result continues to exceed the traditional methods result.

Diagnosis of combined faults in Rotary Machinery by Non-Naive Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asr, Mahsa Yazdanian; Ettefagh, Mir Mohammad; Hassannejad, Reza; Razavi, Seyed Naser

2017-02-01

When combined faults happen in different parts of the rotating machines, their features are profoundly dependent. Experts are completely familiar with individuals faults characteristics and enough data are available from single faults but the problem arises, when the faults combined and the separation of characteristics becomes complex. Therefore, the experts cannot declare exact information about the symptoms of combined fault and its quality. In this paper to overcome this drawback, a novel method is proposed. The core idea of the method is about declaring combined fault without using combined fault features as training data set and just individual fault features are applied in training step. For this purpose, after data acquisition and resampling the obtained vibration signals, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is utilized to decompose multi component signals to Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). With the use of correlation coefficient, proper IMFs for feature extraction are selected. In feature extraction step, Shannon energy entropy of IMFs was extracted as well as statistical features. It is obvious that most of extracted features are strongly dependent. To consider this matter, Non-Naive Bayesian Classifier (NNBC) is appointed, which release the fundamental assumption of Naive Bayesian, i.e., the independence among features. To demonstrate the superiority of NNBC, other counterpart methods, include Normal Naive Bayesian classifier, Kernel Naive Bayesian classifier and Back Propagation Neural Networks were applied and the classification results are compared. An experimental vibration signals, collected from automobile gearbox, were used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. During the classification process, only the features, related individually to healthy state, bearing failure and gear failures, were assigned for training the classifier. But, combined fault features (combined gear and bearing failures) were examined as test data. The achieved probabilities for the test data show that the combined fault can be identified with high success rate.

A Bayesian Network Based Global Sensitivity Analysis Method for Identifying Dominant Processes in a Multi-physics Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, H.; Chen, X.; Ye, M.; Song, X.; Zachara, J. M.

2016-12-01

Sensitivity analysis has been an important tool in groundwater modeling to identify the influential parameters. Among various sensitivity analysis methods, the variance-based global sensitivity analysis has gained popularity for its model independence characteristic and capability of providing accurate sensitivity measurements. However, the conventional variance-based method only considers uncertainty contribution of single model parameters. In this research, we extended the variance-based method to consider more uncertainty sources and developed a new framework to allow flexible combinations of different uncertainty components. We decompose the uncertainty sources into a hierarchical three-layer structure: scenario, model and parametric. Furthermore, each layer of uncertainty source is capable of containing multiple components. An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis framework was then constructed following this three-layer structure using Bayesian network. Different uncertainty components are represented as uncertain nodes in this network. Through the framework, variance-based sensitivity analysis can be implemented with great flexibility of using different grouping strategies for uncertainty components. The variance-based sensitivity analysis thus is improved to be able to investigate the importance of an extended range of uncertainty sources: scenario, model, and other different combinations of uncertainty components which can represent certain key model system processes (e.g., groundwater recharge process, flow reactive transport process). For test and demonstration purposes, the developed methodology was implemented into a test case of real-world groundwater reactive transport modeling with various uncertainty sources. The results demonstrate that the new sensitivity analysis method is able to estimate accurate importance measurements for any uncertainty sources which were formed by different combinations of uncertainty components. The new methodology can provide useful information for environmental management and decision-makers to formulate policies and strategies.

Projected changes in precipitation intensity and frequency over complex topography: a multi-model perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Andreas; Keller, Denise; Liniger, Mark; Rajczak, Jan; Schär, Christoph; Appenzeller, Christof

2014-05-01

Fundamental changes in the hydrological cycle are expected in a future warmer climate. This is of particular relevance for the Alpine region, as a source and reservoir of several major rivers in Europe and being prone to extreme events such as floodings. For this region, climate change assessments based on the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) project a significant decrease in summer mean precipitation under the A1B emission scenario by the mid-to-end of this century, while winter mean precipitation is expected to slightly rise. From an impact perspective, projected changes in seasonal means, however, are often insufficient to adequately address the multifaceted challenges of climate change adaptation. In this study, we revisit the full matrix of the ENSEMBLES RCM projections regarding changes in frequency and intensity, precipitation-type (convective versus stratiform) and temporal structure (wet/dry spells and transition probabilities) over Switzerland and surroundings. As proxies for raintype changes, we rely on the model parameterized convective and large-scale precipitation components. Part of the analysis involves a Bayesian multi-model combination algorithm to infer changes from the multi-model ensemble. The analysis suggests a summer drying that evolves altitude-specific: over low-land regions it is associated with wet-day frequency decreases of convective and large-scale precipitation, while over elevated regions it is primarily associated with a decline in large-scale precipitation only. As a consequence, almost all the models project an increase in the convective fraction at elevated Alpine altitudes. The decrease in the number of wet days during summer is accompanied by decreases (increases) in multi-day wet (dry) spells. This shift in multi-day episodes also lowers the likelihood of short dry spell occurrence in all of the models. For spring and autumn the combined multi-model projections indicate higher mean precipitation intensity north of the Alps, while a similar tendency is expected for the winter season over most of Switzerland.

Model-based Bayesian signal extraction algorithm for peripheral nerves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eggers, Thomas E.; Dweiri, Yazan M.; McCallum, Grant A.; Durand, Dominique M.

2017-10-01

Objective. Multi-channel cuff electrodes have recently been investigated for extracting fascicular-level motor commands from mixed neural recordings. Such signals could provide volitional, intuitive control over a robotic prosthesis for amputee patients. Recent work has demonstrated success in extracting these signals in acute and chronic preparations using spatial filtering techniques. These extracted signals, however, had low signal-to-noise ratios and thus limited their utility to binary classification. In this work a new algorithm is proposed which combines previous source localization approaches to create a model based method which operates in real time. Approach. To validate this algorithm, a saline benchtop setup was created to allow the precise placement of artificial sources within a cuff and interference sources outside the cuff. The artificial source was taken from five seconds of chronic neural activity to replicate realistic recordings. The proposed algorithm, hybrid Bayesian signal extraction (HBSE), is then compared to previous algorithms, beamforming and a Bayesian spatial filtering method, on this test data. An example chronic neural recording is also analyzed with all three algorithms. Main results. The proposed algorithm improved the signal to noise and signal to interference ratio of extracted test signals two to three fold, as well as increased the correlation coefficient between the original and recovered signals by 10-20%. These improvements translated to the chronic recording example and increased the calculated bit rate between the recovered signals and the recorded motor activity. Significance. HBSE significantly outperforms previous algorithms in extracting realistic neural signals, even in the presence of external noise sources. These results demonstrate the feasibility of extracting dynamic motor signals from a multi-fascicled intact nerve trunk, which in turn could extract motor command signals from an amputee for the end goal of controlling a prosthetic limb.

Dynamic foraging of a top predator in a seasonal polar marine environment.

PubMed

Weinstein, Ben G; Friedlaender, Ari S

2017-11-01

The seasonal movement of animals at broad spatial scales provides insight into life-history, ecology and conservation. By combining high-resolution satellite-tagged data with hierarchical Bayesian movement models, we can associate spatial patterns of movement with marine animal behavior. We used a multi-state mixture model to describe humpback whale traveling and area-restricted search states as they forage along the West Antarctic Peninsula. We estimated the change in the geography, composition and characteristics of these behavioral states through time. We show that whales later in the austral fall spent more time in movements associated with foraging, traveled at lower speeds between foraging areas, and shifted their distribution northward and inshore. Seasonal changes in movement are likely due to a combination of sea ice advance and regional shifts in the primary prey source. Our study is a step towards dynamic movement models in the marine environment at broad scales.

A Bayesian Approach for Image Segmentation with Shape Priors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chang, Hang; Yang, Qing; Parvin, Bahram

2008-06-20

Color and texture have been widely used in image segmentation; however, their performance is often hindered by scene ambiguities, overlapping objects, or missingparts. In this paper, we propose an interactive image segmentation approach with shape prior models within a Bayesian framework. Interactive features, through mouse strokes, reduce ambiguities, and the incorporation of shape priors enhances quality of the segmentation where color and/or texture are not solely adequate. The novelties of our approach are in (i) formulating the segmentation problem in a well-de?ned Bayesian framework with multiple shape priors, (ii) ef?ciently estimating parameters of the Bayesian model, and (iii) multi-object segmentationmore » through user-speci?ed priors. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on a set of natural and synthetic images.« less

Application of Bayesian model averaging to measurements of the primordial power spectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkinson, David; Liddle, Andrew R.

2010-11-01

Cosmological parameter uncertainties are often stated assuming a particular model, neglecting the model uncertainty, even when Bayesian model selection is unable to identify a conclusive best model. Bayesian model averaging is a method for assessing parameter uncertainties in situations where there is also uncertainty in the underlying model. We apply model averaging to the estimation of the parameters associated with the primordial power spectra of curvature and tensor perturbations. We use CosmoNest and MultiNest to compute the model evidences and posteriors, using cosmic microwave data from WMAP, ACBAR, BOOMERanG, and CBI, plus large-scale structure data from the SDSS DR7. We find that the model-averaged 95% credible interval for the spectral index using all of the data is 0.940

Discovering variable fractional orders of advection-dispersion equations from field data using multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pang, Guofei; Perdikaris, Paris; Cai, Wei; Karniadakis, George Em

2017-11-01

The fractional advection-dispersion equation (FADE) can describe accurately the solute transport in groundwater but its fractional order has to be determined a priori. Here, we employ multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization to obtain the fractional order under various conditions, and we obtain more accurate results compared to previously published data. Moreover, the present method is very efficient as we use different levels of resolution to construct a stochastic surrogate model and quantify its uncertainty. We consider two different problem set ups. In the first set up, we obtain variable fractional orders of one-dimensional FADE, considering both synthetic and field data. In the second set up, we identify constant fractional orders of two-dimensional FADE using synthetic data. We employ multi-resolution simulations using two-level and three-level Gaussian process regression models to construct the surrogates.

Approximate Bayesian Computation by Subset Simulation using hierarchical state-space models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vakilzadeh, Majid K.; Huang, Yong; Beck, James L.; Abrahamsson, Thomas

2017-02-01

A new multi-level Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for Approximate Bayesian Computation, ABC-SubSim, has recently appeared that exploits the Subset Simulation method for efficient rare-event simulation. ABC-SubSim adaptively creates a nested decreasing sequence of data-approximating regions in the output space that correspond to increasingly closer approximations of the observed output vector in this output space. At each level, multiple samples of the model parameter vector are generated by a component-wise Metropolis algorithm so that the predicted output corresponding to each parameter value falls in the current data-approximating region. Theoretically, if continued to the limit, the sequence of data-approximating regions would converge on to the observed output vector and the approximate posterior distributions, which are conditional on the data-approximation region, would become exact, but this is not practically feasible. In this paper we study the performance of the ABC-SubSim algorithm for Bayesian updating of the parameters of dynamical systems using a general hierarchical state-space model. We note that the ABC methodology gives an approximate posterior distribution that actually corresponds to an exact posterior where a uniformly distributed combined measurement and modeling error is added. We also note that ABC algorithms have a problem with learning the uncertain error variances in a stochastic state-space model and so we treat them as nuisance parameters and analytically integrate them out of the posterior distribution. In addition, the statistical efficiency of the original ABC-SubSim algorithm is improved by developing a novel strategy to regulate the proposal variance for the component-wise Metropolis algorithm at each level. We demonstrate that Self-regulated ABC-SubSim is well suited for Bayesian system identification by first applying it successfully to model updating of a two degree-of-freedom linear structure for three cases: globally, locally and un-identifiable model classes, and then to model updating of a two degree-of-freedom nonlinear structure with Duffing nonlinearities in its interstory force-deflection relationship.

Building a maintenance policy through a multi-criterion decision-making model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faghihinia, Elahe; Mollaverdi, Naser

2012-08-01

A major competitive advantage of production and service systems is establishing a proper maintenance policy. Therefore, maintenance managers should make maintenance decisions that best fit their systems. Multi-criterion decision-making methods can take into account a number of aspects associated with the competitiveness factors of a system. This paper presents a multi-criterion decision-aided maintenance model with three criteria that have more influence on decision making: reliability, maintenance cost, and maintenance downtime. The Bayesian approach has been applied to confront maintenance failure data shortage. Therefore, the model seeks to make the best compromise between these three criteria and establish replacement intervals using Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE II), integrating the Bayesian approach with regard to the preference of the decision maker to the problem. Finally, using a numerical application, the model has been illustrated, and for a visual realization and an illustrative sensitivity analysis, PROMETHEE GAIA (the visual interactive module) has been used. Use of PROMETHEE II and PROMETHEE GAIA has been made with Decision Lab software. A sensitivity analysis has been made to verify the robustness of certain parameters of the model.

Integrating ecosystems measurements from multiple eddy-covariance sites to a simple model of ecosystem process - Are there possibilities for a uniform model calibration?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minunno, Francesco; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Launiainen, Samuli; Mäkelä, Annikki

2014-05-01

Biogeochemical models quantify the material and energy flux exchanges between biosphere, atmosphere and soil, however there is still considerable uncertainty underpinning model structure and parametrization. The increasing availability of data from of multiple sources provides useful information for model calibration and validation at different space and time scales. We calibrated a simplified ecosystem process model PRELES to data from multiple sites. In this work we had the following objective: to compare a multi-site calibration and site-specific calibrations, in order to test if PRELES is a model of general applicability, and to test how well one parameterization can predict ecosystem fluxes. Model calibration and evaluation were carried out by the means of the Bayesian method; Bayesian calibration (BC) and Bayesian model comparison (BMC) were used to quantify the uncertainty in model parameters and model structure. Evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP) measurements collected in 9 sites of Finland and Sweden were used in the study; half dataset was used for model calibrations and half for the comparative analyses. 10 BCs were performed; the model was independently calibrated for each of the nine sites (site-specific calibrations) and a multi-site calibration was achieved using the data from all the sites in one BC. Then 9 BMCs were carried out, one for each site, using output from the multi-site and the site-specific versions of PRELES. Similar estimates were obtained for the parameters at which model outputs are most sensitive. Not surprisingly, the joint posterior distribution achieved through the multi-site calibration was characterized by lower uncertainty, because more data were involved in the calibration process. No significant differences were encountered in the prediction of the multi-site and site-specific versions of PRELES, and after BMC, we concluded that the model can be reliably used at regional scale to simulate carbon and water fluxes of Boreal forests. Despite being a simple model, PRELES provided good estimates of GPP and ET; only for one site PRELES multi-site version underestimated water fluxes. Our study implies convergence of GPP and water processes in boreal zone to the extent that their plausible prediction is possible with a simple model using global parameterization.

A comparison of machine learning and Bayesian modelling for molecular serotyping.

PubMed

Newton, Richard; Wernisch, Lorenz

2017-08-11

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a human pathogen that is a major cause of infant mortality. Identifying the pneumococcal serotype is an important step in monitoring the impact of vaccines used to protect against disease. Genomic microarrays provide an effective method for molecular serotyping. Previously we developed an empirical Bayesian model for the classification of serotypes from a molecular serotyping array. With only few samples available, a model driven approach was the only option. In the meanwhile, several thousand samples have been made available to us, providing an opportunity to investigate serotype classification by machine learning methods, which could complement the Bayesian model. We compare the performance of the original Bayesian model with two machine learning algorithms: Gradient Boosting Machines and Random Forests. We present our results as an example of a generic strategy whereby a preliminary probabilistic model is complemented or replaced by a machine learning classifier once enough data are available. Despite the availability of thousands of serotyping arrays, a problem encountered when applying machine learning methods is the lack of training data containing mixtures of serotypes; due to the large number of possible combinations. Most of the available training data comprises samples with only a single serotype. To overcome the lack of training data we implemented an iterative analysis, creating artificial training data of serotype mixtures by combining raw data from single serotype arrays. With the enhanced training set the machine learning algorithms out perform the original Bayesian model. However, for serotypes currently lacking sufficient training data the best performing implementation was a combination of the results of the Bayesian Model and the Gradient Boosting Machine. As well as being an effective method for classifying biological data, machine learning can also be used as an efficient method for revealing subtle biological insights, which we illustrate with an example.

DAFNE: A Matlab toolbox for Bayesian multi-source remote sensing and ancillary data fusion, with application to flood mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Addabbo, Annarita; Refice, Alberto; Lovergine, Francesco P.; Pasquariello, Guido

2018-03-01

High-resolution, remotely sensed images of the Earth surface have been proven to be of help in producing detailed flood maps, thanks to their synoptic overview of the flooded area and frequent revisits. However, flood scenarios can be complex situations, requiring the integration of different data in order to provide accurate and robust flood information. Several processing approaches have been recently proposed to efficiently combine and integrate heterogeneous information sources. In this paper, we introduce DAFNE, a Matlab®-based, open source toolbox, conceived to produce flood maps from remotely sensed and other ancillary information, through a data fusion approach. DAFNE is based on Bayesian Networks, and is composed of several independent modules, each one performing a different task. Multi-temporal and multi-sensor data can be easily handled, with the possibility of following the evolution of an event through multi-temporal output flood maps. Each DAFNE module can be easily modified or upgraded to meet different user needs. The DAFNE suite is presented together with an example of its application.

Predicting the Future as Bayesian Inference: People Combine Prior Knowledge with Observations when Estimating Duration and Extent

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffiths, Thomas L.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

2011-01-01

Predicting the future is a basic problem that people have to solve every day and a component of planning, decision making, memory, and causal reasoning. In this article, we present 5 experiments testing a Bayesian model of predicting the duration or extent of phenomena from their current state. This Bayesian model indicates how people should…

Exploring complex dynamics in multi agent-based intelligent systems: Theoretical and experimental approaches using the Multi Agent-based Behavioral Economic Landscape (MABEL) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandridis, Konstantinos T.

This dissertation adopts a holistic and detailed approach to modeling spatially explicit agent-based artificial intelligent systems, using the Multi Agent-based Behavioral Economic Landscape (MABEL) model. The research questions that addresses stem from the need to understand and analyze the real-world patterns and dynamics of land use change from a coupled human-environmental systems perspective. Describes the systemic, mathematical, statistical, socio-economic and spatial dynamics of the MABEL modeling framework, and provides a wide array of cross-disciplinary modeling applications within the research, decision-making and policy domains. Establishes the symbolic properties of the MABEL model as a Markov decision process, analyzes the decision-theoretic utility and optimization attributes of agents towards comprising statistically and spatially optimal policies and actions, and explores the probabilogic character of the agents' decision-making and inference mechanisms via the use of Bayesian belief and decision networks. Develops and describes a Monte Carlo methodology for experimental replications of agent's decisions regarding complex spatial parcel acquisition and learning. Recognizes the gap on spatially-explicit accuracy assessment techniques for complex spatial models, and proposes an ensemble of statistical tools designed to address this problem. Advanced information assessment techniques such as the Receiver-Operator Characteristic curve, the impurity entropy and Gini functions, and the Bayesian classification functions are proposed. The theoretical foundation for modular Bayesian inference in spatially-explicit multi-agent artificial intelligent systems, and the ensembles of cognitive and scenario assessment modular tools build for the MABEL model are provided. Emphasizes the modularity and robustness as valuable qualitative modeling attributes, and examines the role of robust intelligent modeling as a tool for improving policy-decisions related to land use change. Finally, the major contributions to the science are presented along with valuable directions for future research.

Climatic Models Ensemble-based Mid-21st Century Runoff Projections: A Bayesian Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achieng, K. O.; Zhu, J.

2017-12-01

There are a number of North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climatic models that have been used to project surface runoff in the mid-21st century. Statistical model selection techniques are often used to select the model that best fits data. However, model selection techniques often lead to different conclusions. In this study, ten models are averaged in Bayesian paradigm to project runoff. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is used to project and identify effect of model uncertainty on future runoff projections. Baseflow separation - a two-digital filter which is also called Eckhardt filter - is used to separate USGS streamflow (total runoff) into two components: baseflow and surface runoff. We use this surface runoff as the a priori runoff when conducting BMA of runoff simulated from the ten RCM models. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate how well RCM multi-model ensembles simulate surface runoff, in a Bayesian framework. Specifically, we investigate and discuss the following questions: How well do ten RCM models ensemble jointly simulate surface runoff by averaging over all the models using BMA, given a priori surface runoff? What are the effects of model uncertainty on surface runoff simulation?

Three-Dimensional Bayesian Geostatistical Aquifer Characterization at the Hanford 300 Area using Tracer Test Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Murakami, H.; Hahn, M. S.; Hammond, G. E.; Rockhold, M. L.; Rubin, Y.

2010-12-01

Tracer testing under natural or forced gradient flow provides useful information for characterizing subsurface properties, by monitoring and modeling the tracer plume migration in a heterogeneous aquifer. At the Hanford 300 Area, non-reactive tracer experiments, in addition to constant-rate injection tests and electromagnetic borehole flowmeter (EBF) profiling, were conducted to characterize the heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity field. A Bayesian data assimilation technique, method of anchored distributions (MAD), is applied to assimilate the experimental tracer test data and to infer the three-dimensional heterogeneous structure of the hydraulic conductivity in the saturated zone of the Hanford formation. In this study, the prior information of the underlying random hydraulic conductivity field was obtained from previous field characterization efforts using the constant-rate injection tests and the EBF data. The posterior distribution of the random field is obtained by further conditioning the field on the temporal moments of tracer breakthrough curves at various observation wells. The parallel three-dimensional flow and transport code PFLOTRAN is implemented to cope with the highly transient flow boundary conditions at the site and to meet the computational demand of the proposed method. The validation results show that the field conditioned on the tracer test data better reproduces the tracer transport behavior compared to the field characterized previously without the tracer test data. A synthetic study proves that the proposed method can effectively assimilate tracer test data to capture the essential spatial heterogeneity of the three-dimensional hydraulic conductivity field. These characterization results will improve conceptual models developed for the site, including reactive transport models. The study successfully demonstrates the capability of MAD to assimilate multi-scale multi-type field data within a consistent Bayesian framework. The MAD framework can potentially be applied to combine geophysical data with other types of data in site characterization.

Combining Volcano Monitoring Timeseries Analyses with Bayesian Belief Networks to Update Hazard Forecast Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odbert, Henry; Hincks, Thea; Aspinall, Willy

2015-04-01

Volcanic hazard assessments must combine information about the physical processes of hazardous phenomena with observations that indicate the current state of a volcano. Incorporating both these lines of evidence can inform our belief about the likelihood (probability) and consequences (impact) of possible hazardous scenarios, forming a basis for formal quantitative hazard assessment. However, such evidence is often uncertain, indirect or incomplete. Approaches to volcano monitoring have advanced substantially in recent decades, increasing the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence thus becomes increasingly complex. In practice, interpreting many timeseries requires an individual to be familiar with the idiosyncrasies of the volcano, monitoring techniques, configuration of recording instruments, observations from other datasets, and so on. In making such interpretations, an individual must consider how different volcanic processes may manifest as measureable observations, and then infer from the available data what can or cannot be deduced about those processes. We examine how parts of this process may be synthesised algorithmically using Bayesian inference. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple strands of evidence (e.g. observations, model results and interpretations) and their associated uncertainties in a methodical manner. BBNs are usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic data from the long-lived eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We show how our method provides a route to formal propagation of uncertainties in hazard models. Such approaches provide an attractive route to developing an interface between volcano monitoring analyses and probabilistic hazard scenario analysis. We discuss the use of BBNs in hazard analysis as a tractable and traceable tool for fast, rational assimilation of complex, multi-parameter data sets in the context of timely volcanic crisis decision support.

Uncertainty analysis for effluent trading planning using a Bayesian estimation-based simulation-optimization modeling approach.

PubMed

Zhang, J L; Li, Y P; Huang, G H; Baetz, B W; Liu, J

2017-06-01

In this study, a Bayesian estimation-based simulation-optimization modeling approach (BESMA) is developed for identifying effluent trading strategies. BESMA incorporates nutrient fate modeling with soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), Bayesian estimation, and probabilistic-possibilistic interval programming with fuzzy random coefficients (PPI-FRC) within a general framework. Based on the water quality protocols provided by SWAT, posterior distributions of parameters can be analyzed through Bayesian estimation; stochastic characteristic of nutrient loading can be investigated which provides the inputs for the decision making. PPI-FRC can address multiple uncertainties in the form of intervals with fuzzy random boundaries and the associated system risk through incorporating the concept of possibility and necessity measures. The possibility and necessity measures are suitable for optimistic and pessimistic decision making, respectively. BESMA is applied to a real case of effluent trading planning in the Xiangxihe watershed, China. A number of decision alternatives can be obtained under different trading ratios and treatment rates. The results can not only facilitate identification of optimal effluent-trading schemes, but also gain insight into the effects of trading ratio and treatment rate on decision making. The results also reveal that decision maker's preference towards risk would affect decision alternatives on trading scheme as well as system benefit. Compared with the conventional optimization methods, it is proved that BESMA is advantageous in (i) dealing with multiple uncertainties associated with randomness and fuzziness in effluent-trading planning within a multi-source, multi-reach and multi-period context; (ii) reflecting uncertainties existing in nutrient transport behaviors to improve the accuracy in water quality prediction; and (iii) supporting pessimistic and optimistic decision making for effluent trading as well as promoting diversity of decision alternatives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty aggregation and reduction in structure-material performance prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zhen; Mahadevan, Sankaran; Ao, Dan

2018-02-01

An uncertainty aggregation and reduction framework is presented for structure-material performance prediction. Different types of uncertainty sources, structural analysis model, and material performance prediction model are connected through a Bayesian network for systematic uncertainty aggregation analysis. To reduce the uncertainty in the computational structure-material performance prediction model, Bayesian updating using experimental observation data is investigated based on the Bayesian network. It is observed that the Bayesian updating results will have large error if the model cannot accurately represent the actual physics, and that this error will be propagated to the predicted performance distribution. To address this issue, this paper proposes a novel uncertainty reduction method by integrating Bayesian calibration with model validation adaptively. The observation domain of the quantity of interest is first discretized into multiple segments. An adaptive algorithm is then developed to perform model validation and Bayesian updating over these observation segments sequentially. Only information from observation segments where the model prediction is highly reliable is used for Bayesian updating; this is found to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of uncertainty reduction. A composite rotorcraft hub component fatigue life prediction model, which combines a finite element structural analysis model and a material damage model, is used to demonstrate the proposed method.

A Bayesian Poisson-lognormal Model for Count Data for Multiple-Trait Multiple-Environment Genomic-Enabled Prediction

PubMed Central

Montesinos-López, Osval A.; Montesinos-López, Abelardo; Crossa, José; Toledo, Fernando H.; Montesinos-López, José C.; Singh, Pawan; Juliana, Philomin; Salinas-Ruiz, Josafhat

2017-01-01

When a plant scientist wishes to make genomic-enabled predictions of multiple traits measured in multiple individuals in multiple environments, the most common strategy for performing the analysis is to use a single trait at a time taking into account genotype × environment interaction (G × E), because there is a lack of comprehensive models that simultaneously take into account the correlated counting traits and G × E. For this reason, in this study we propose a multiple-trait and multiple-environment model for count data. The proposed model was developed under the Bayesian paradigm for which we developed a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with noninformative priors. This allows obtaining all required full conditional distributions of the parameters leading to an exact Gibbs sampler for the posterior distribution. Our model was tested with simulated data and a real data set. Results show that the proposed multi-trait, multi-environment model is an attractive alternative for modeling multiple count traits measured in multiple environments. PMID:28364037

Wearable-Sensor-Based Classification Models of Faller Status in Older Adults.

PubMed

Howcroft, Jennifer; Lemaire, Edward D; Kofman, Jonathan

2016-01-01

Wearable sensors have potential for quantitative, gait-based, point-of-care fall risk assessment that can be easily and quickly implemented in clinical-care and older-adult living environments. This investigation generated models for wearable-sensor based fall-risk classification in older adults and identified the optimal sensor type, location, combination, and modelling method; for walking with and without a cognitive load task. A convenience sample of 100 older individuals (75.5 ± 6.7 years; 76 non-fallers, 24 fallers based on 6 month retrospective fall occurrence) walked 7.62 m under single-task and dual-task conditions while wearing pressure-sensing insoles and tri-axial accelerometers at the head, pelvis, and left and right shanks. Participants also completed the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale, Community Health Activities Model Program for Seniors questionnaire, six minute walk test, and ranked their fear of falling. Fall risk classification models were assessed for all sensor combinations and three model types: multi-layer perceptron neural network, naïve Bayesian, and support vector machine. The best performing model was a multi-layer perceptron neural network with input parameters from pressure-sensing insoles and head, pelvis, and left shank accelerometers (accuracy = 84%, F1 score = 0.600, MCC score = 0.521). Head sensor-based models had the best performance of the single-sensor models for single-task gait assessment. Single-task gait assessment models outperformed models based on dual-task walking or clinical assessment data. Support vector machines and neural networks were the best modelling technique for fall risk classification. Fall risk classification models developed for point-of-care environments should be developed using support vector machines and neural networks, with a multi-sensor single-task gait assessment.

Mass discharge estimation from contaminated sites: Multi-model solutions for assessment of conceptual uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomsen, N. I.; Troldborg, M.; McKnight, U. S.; Binning, P. J.; Bjerg, P. L.

2012-04-01

Mass discharge estimates are increasingly being used in the management of contaminated sites. Such estimates have proven useful for supporting decisions related to the prioritization of contaminated sites in a groundwater catchment. Potential management options can be categorised as follows: (1) leave as is, (2) clean up, or (3) further investigation needed. However, mass discharge estimates are often very uncertain, which may hamper the management decisions. If option 1 is incorrectly chosen soil and water quality will decrease, threatening or destroying drinking water resources. The risk of choosing option 2 is to spend money on remediating a site that does not pose a problem. Choosing option 3 will often be safest, but may not be the optimal economic solution. Quantification of the uncertainty in mass discharge estimates can therefore greatly improve the foundation for selecting the appropriate management option. The uncertainty of mass discharge estimates depends greatly on the extent of the site characterization. A good approach for uncertainty estimation will be flexible with respect to the investigation level, and account for both parameter and conceptual model uncertainty. We propose a method for quantifying the uncertainty of dynamic mass discharge estimates from contaminant point sources on the local scale. The method considers both parameter and conceptual uncertainty through a multi-model approach. The multi-model approach evaluates multiple conceptual models for the same site. The different conceptual models consider different source characterizations and hydrogeological descriptions. The idea is to include a set of essentially different conceptual models where each model is believed to be realistic representation of the given site, based on the current level of information. Parameter uncertainty is quantified using Monte Carlo simulations. For each conceptual model we calculate a transient mass discharge estimate with uncertainty bounds resulting from the parametric uncertainty. To quantify the conceptual uncertainty from a given site, we combine the outputs from the different conceptual models using Bayesian model averaging. The weight for each model is obtained by integrating available data and expert knowledge using Bayesian belief networks. The multi-model approach is applied to a contaminated site. At the site a DNAPL (dense non aqueous phase liquid) spill consisting of PCE (perchloroethylene) has contaminated a fractured clay till aquitard overlaying a limestone aquifer. The exact shape and nature of the source is unknown and so is the importance of transport in the fractures. The result of the multi-model approach is a visual representation of the uncertainty of the mass discharge estimates for the site which can be used to support the management options.

Trends in Extreme Rainfall Frequency in the Contiguous United States: Attribution to Climate Change and Climate Variability Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armal, S.; Devineni, N.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2017-12-01

This study presents a systematic analysis for identifying and attributing trends in the annual frequency of extreme rainfall events across the contiguous United States to climate change and climate variability modes. A Bayesian multilevel model is developed for 1,244 stations simultaneously to test the null hypothesis of no trend and verify two alternate hypotheses: Trend can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies, or to a combination of cyclical climate modes with varying quasi-periodicities and global surface temperature anomalies. The Bayesian multilevel model provides the opportunity to pool information across stations and reduce the parameter estimation uncertainty, hence identifying the trends better. The choice of the best alternate hypotheses is made based on Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion, a Bayesian pointwise predictive accuracy measure. Statistically significant time trends are observed in 742 of the 1,244 stations. Trends in 409 of these stations can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are predominantly found in the Southeast and Northeast climate regions. The trends in 274 of these stations can be attributed to the El Nino Southern Oscillations, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation along with changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are mainly found in the Northwest, West and Southwest climate regions.

Differences in Mortality among Heroin, Cocaine, and Methamphetamine Users: A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach

PubMed Central

Liang, Li-Jung; Huang, David; Brecht, Mary-Lynn; Hser, Yih-ing

2010-01-01

Studies examining differences in mortality among long-term drug users have been limited. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian framework that jointly models survival data using a Weibull proportional hazard model with frailty, and substance and alcohol data using mixed-effects models, to examine differences in mortality among heroin, cocaine, and methamphetamine users from five long-term follow-up studies. The traditional approach to analyzing combined survival data from numerous studies assumes that the studies are homogeneous, thus the estimates may be biased due to unobserved heterogeneity among studies. Our approach allows us to structurally combine the data from different studies while accounting for correlation among subjects within each study. Markov chain Monte Carlo facilitates the implementation of Bayesian analyses. Despite the complexity of the model, our approach is relatively straightforward to implement using WinBUGS. We demonstrate our joint modeling approach to the combined data and discuss the results from both approaches. PMID:21052518

Bayesian segmentation of atrium wall using globally-optimal graph cuts on 3D meshes.

PubMed

Veni, Gopalkrishna; Fu, Zhisong; Awate, Suyash P; Whitaker, Ross T

2013-01-01

Efficient segmentation of the left atrium (LA) wall from delayed enhancement MRI is challenging due to inconsistent contrast, combined with noise, and high variation in atrial shape and size. We present a surface-detection method that is capable of extracting the atrial wall by computing an optimal a-posteriori estimate. This estimation is done on a set of nested meshes, constructed from an ensemble of segmented training images, and graph cuts on an associated multi-column, proper-ordered graph. The graph/mesh is a part of a template/model that has an associated set of learned intensity features. When this mesh is overlaid onto a test image, it produces a set of costs which lead to an optimal segmentation. The 3D mesh has an associated weighted, directed multi-column graph with edges that encode smoothness and inter-surface penalties. Unlike previous graph-cut methods that impose hard constraints on the surface properties, the proposed method follows from a Bayesian formulation resulting in soft penalties on spatial variation of the cuts through the mesh. The novelty of this method also lies in the construction of proper-ordered graphs on complex shapes for choosing among distinct classes of base shapes for automatic LA segmentation. We evaluate the proposed segmentation framework on simulated and clinical cardiac MRI.

On estimating the accuracy of monitoring methods using Bayesian error propagation technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zonta, Daniele; Bruschetta, Federico; Cappello, Carlo; Zandonini, R.; Pozzi, Matteo; Wang, Ming; Glisic, B.; Inaudi, D.; Posenato, D.; Zhao, Y.

2014-04-01

This paper illustrates an application of Bayesian logic to monitoring data analysis and structural condition state inference. The case study is a 260 m long cable-stayed bridge spanning the Adige River 10 km north of the town of Trento, Italy. This is a statically indeterminate structure, having a composite steel-concrete deck, supported by 12 stay cables. Structural redundancy, possible relaxation losses and an as-built condition differing from design, suggest that long-term load redistribution between cables can be expected. To monitor load redistribution, the owner decided to install a monitoring system which combines built-on-site elasto-magnetic and fiber-optic sensors. In this note, we discuss a rational way to improve the accuracy of the load estimate from the EM sensors taking advantage of the FOS information. More specifically, we use a multi-sensor Bayesian data fusion approach which combines the information from the two sensing systems with the prior knowledge, including design information and the outcomes of laboratory calibration. Using the data acquired to date, we demonstrate that combining the two measurements allows a more accurate estimate of the cable load, to better than 50 kN.

Bayesian networks for maritime traffic accident prevention: benefits and challenges.

PubMed

Hänninen, Maria

2014-12-01

Bayesian networks are quantitative modeling tools whose applications to the maritime traffic safety context are becoming more popular. This paper discusses the utilization of Bayesian networks in maritime safety modeling. Based on literature and the author's own experiences, the paper studies what Bayesian networks can offer to maritime accident prevention and safety modeling and discusses a few challenges in their application to this context. It is argued that the capability of representing rather complex, not necessarily causal but uncertain relationships makes Bayesian networks an attractive modeling tool for the maritime safety and accidents. Furthermore, as the maritime accident and safety data is still rather scarce and has some quality problems, the possibility to combine data with expert knowledge and the easy way of updating the model after acquiring more evidence further enhance their feasibility. However, eliciting the probabilities from the maritime experts might be challenging and the model validation can be tricky. It is concluded that with the utilization of several data sources, Bayesian updating, dynamic modeling, and hidden nodes for latent variables, Bayesian networks are rather well-suited tools for the maritime safety management and decision-making. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Monte Carlo and Maximum Likelihood Approach for Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management: Application to Lake Oxygen Recovery Model

EPA Science Inventory

Model uncertainty estimation and risk assessment is essential to environmental management and informed decision making on pollution mitigation strategies. In this study, we apply a probabilistic methodology, which combines Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and Maximum Likelihood e...

Markov blanket-based approach for learning multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers: an application to predict the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) from the 39-item Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire (PDQ-39).

PubMed

Borchani, Hanen; Bielza, Concha; Martı Nez-Martı N, Pablo; Larrañaga, Pedro

2012-12-01

Multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers (MBCs) are probabilistic graphical models recently proposed to deal with multi-dimensional classification problems, where each instance in the data set has to be assigned to more than one class variable. In this paper, we propose a Markov blanket-based approach for learning MBCs from data. Basically, it consists of determining the Markov blanket around each class variable using the HITON algorithm, then specifying the directionality over the MBC subgraphs. Our approach is applied to the prediction problem of the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) from the 39-item Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire (PDQ-39) in order to estimate the health-related quality of life of Parkinson's patients. Fivefold cross-validation experiments were carried out on randomly generated synthetic data sets, Yeast data set, as well as on a real-world Parkinson's disease data set containing 488 patients. The experimental study, including comparison with additional Bayesian network-based approaches, back propagation for multi-label learning, multi-label k-nearest neighbor, multinomial logistic regression, ordinary least squares, and censored least absolute deviations, shows encouraging results in terms of predictive accuracy as well as the identification of dependence relationships among class and feature variables. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian network modeling applied to coastal geomorphology: lessons learned from a decade of experimentation and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plant, N. G.; Thieler, E. R.; Gutierrez, B.; Lentz, E. E.; Zeigler, S. L.; Van Dongeren, A.; Fienen, M. N.

2016-12-01

We evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of Bayesian networks that have been used to address scientific and decision-support questions related to coastal geomorphology. We will provide an overview of coastal geomorphology research that has used Bayesian networks and describe what this approach can do and when it works (or fails to work). Over the past decade, Bayesian networks have been formulated to analyze the multi-variate structure and evolution of coastal morphology and associated human and ecological impacts. The approach relates observable system variables to each other by estimating discrete correlations. The resulting Bayesian-networks make predictions that propagate errors, conduct inference via Bayes rule, or both. In scientific applications, the model results are useful for hypothesis testing, using confidence estimates to gage the strength of tests while applications to coastal resource management are aimed at decision-support, where the probabilities of desired ecosystems outcomes are evaluated. The range of Bayesian-network applications to coastal morphology includes emulation of high-resolution wave transformation models to make oceanographic predictions, morphologic response to storms and/or sea-level rise, groundwater response to sea-level rise and morphologic variability, habitat suitability for endangered species, and assessment of monetary or human-life risk associated with storms. All of these examples are based on vast observational data sets, numerical model output, or both. We will discuss the progression of our experiments, which has included testing whether the Bayesian-network approach can be implemented and is appropriate for addressing basic and applied scientific problems and evaluating the hindcast and forecast skill of these implementations. We will present and discuss calibration/validation tests that are used to assess the robustness of Bayesian-network models and we will compare these results to tests of other models. This will demonstrate how Bayesian networks are used to extract new insights about coastal morphologic behavior, assess impacts to societal and ecological systems, and communicate probabilistic predictions to decision makers.

Variational learning and bits-back coding: an information-theoretic view to Bayesian learning.

PubMed

Honkela, Antti; Valpola, Harri

2004-07-01

The bits-back coding first introduced by Wallace in 1990 and later by Hinton and van Camp in 1993 provides an interesting link between Bayesian learning and information-theoretic minimum-description-length (MDL) learning approaches. The bits-back coding allows interpreting the cost function used in the variational Bayesian method called ensemble learning as a code length in addition to the Bayesian view of misfit of the posterior approximation and a lower bound of model evidence. Combining these two viewpoints provides interesting insights to the learning process and the functions of different parts of the model. In this paper, the problem of variational Bayesian learning of hierarchical latent variable models is used to demonstrate the benefits of the two views. The code-length interpretation provides new views to many parts of the problem such as model comparison and pruning and helps explain many phenomena occurring in learning.

Comparing models for quantitative risk assessment: an application to the European Registry of foreign body injuries in children.

PubMed

Berchialla, Paola; Scarinzi, Cecilia; Snidero, Silvia; Gregori, Dario

2016-08-01

Risk Assessment is the systematic study of decisions subject to uncertain consequences. An increasing interest has been focused on modeling techniques like Bayesian Networks since their capability of (1) combining in the probabilistic framework different type of evidence including both expert judgments and objective data; (2) overturning previous beliefs in the light of the new information being received and (3) making predictions even with incomplete data. In this work, we proposed a comparison among Bayesian Networks and other classical Quantitative Risk Assessment techniques such as Neural Networks, Classification Trees, Random Forests and Logistic Regression models. Hybrid approaches, combining both Classification Trees and Bayesian Networks, were also considered. Among Bayesian Networks, a clear distinction between purely data-driven approach and combination of expert knowledge with objective data is made. The aim of this paper consists in evaluating among this models which best can be applied, in the framework of Quantitative Risk Assessment, to assess the safety of children who are exposed to the risk of inhalation/insertion/aspiration of consumer products. The issue of preventing injuries in children is of paramount importance, in particular where product design is involved: quantifying the risk associated to product characteristics can be of great usefulness in addressing the product safety design regulation. Data of the European Registry of Foreign Bodies Injuries formed the starting evidence for risk assessment. Results showed that Bayesian Networks appeared to have both the ease of interpretability and accuracy in making prediction, even if simpler models like logistic regression still performed well. © The Author(s) 2013.

Traffic Video Image Segmentation Model Based on Bayesian and Spatio-Temporal Markov Random Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Jun; Bao, Xu; Li, Dawei; Yin, Yongwen

2017-10-01

Traffic video image is a kind of dynamic image and its background and foreground is changed at any time, which results in the occlusion. In this case, using the general method is more difficult to get accurate image segmentation. A segmentation algorithm based on Bayesian and Spatio-Temporal Markov Random Field is put forward, which respectively build the energy function model of observation field and label field to motion sequence image with Markov property, then according to Bayesian' rule, use the interaction of label field and observation field, that is the relationship of label field’s prior probability and observation field’s likelihood probability, get the maximum posterior probability of label field’s estimation parameter, use the ICM model to extract the motion object, consequently the process of segmentation is finished. Finally, the segmentation methods of ST - MRF and the Bayesian combined with ST - MRF were analyzed. Experimental results: the segmentation time in Bayesian combined with ST-MRF algorithm is shorter than in ST-MRF, and the computing workload is small, especially in the heavy traffic dynamic scenes the method also can achieve better segmentation effect.

A Bayesian Poisson-lognormal Model for Count Data for Multiple-Trait Multiple-Environment Genomic-Enabled Prediction.

PubMed

Montesinos-López, Osval A; Montesinos-López, Abelardo; Crossa, José; Toledo, Fernando H; Montesinos-López, José C; Singh, Pawan; Juliana, Philomin; Salinas-Ruiz, Josafhat

2017-05-05

When a plant scientist wishes to make genomic-enabled predictions of multiple traits measured in multiple individuals in multiple environments, the most common strategy for performing the analysis is to use a single trait at a time taking into account genotype × environment interaction (G × E), because there is a lack of comprehensive models that simultaneously take into account the correlated counting traits and G × E. For this reason, in this study we propose a multiple-trait and multiple-environment model for count data. The proposed model was developed under the Bayesian paradigm for which we developed a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with noninformative priors. This allows obtaining all required full conditional distributions of the parameters leading to an exact Gibbs sampler for the posterior distribution. Our model was tested with simulated data and a real data set. Results show that the proposed multi-trait, multi-environment model is an attractive alternative for modeling multiple count traits measured in multiple environments. Copyright © 2017 Montesinos-López et al.

Bayesian Genomic Prediction with Genotype × Environment Interaction Kernel Models

PubMed Central

Cuevas, Jaime; Crossa, José; Montesinos-López, Osval A.; Burgueño, Juan; Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; de los Campos, Gustavo

2016-01-01

The phenomenon of genotype × environment (G × E) interaction in plant breeding decreases selection accuracy, thereby negatively affecting genetic gains. Several genomic prediction models incorporating G × E have been recently developed and used in genomic selection of plant breeding programs. Genomic prediction models for assessing multi-environment G × E interaction are extensions of a single-environment model, and have advantages and limitations. In this study, we propose two multi-environment Bayesian genomic models: the first model considers genetic effects (u) that can be assessed by the Kronecker product of variance–covariance matrices of genetic correlations between environments and genomic kernels through markers under two linear kernel methods, linear (genomic best linear unbiased predictors, GBLUP) and Gaussian (Gaussian kernel, GK). The other model has the same genetic component as the first model (u) plus an extra component, f, that captures random effects between environments that were not captured by the random effects u. We used five CIMMYT data sets (one maize and four wheat) that were previously used in different studies. Results show that models with G × E always have superior prediction ability than single-environment models, and the higher prediction ability of multi-environment models with u and f over the multi-environment model with only u occurred 85% of the time with GBLUP and 45% of the time with GK across the five data sets. The latter result indicated that including the random effect f is still beneficial for increasing prediction ability after adjusting by the random effect u. PMID:27793970

Bayesian Genomic Prediction with Genotype × Environment Interaction Kernel Models.

PubMed

Cuevas, Jaime; Crossa, José; Montesinos-López, Osval A; Burgueño, Juan; Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; de Los Campos, Gustavo

2017-01-05

The phenomenon of genotype × environment (G × E) interaction in plant breeding decreases selection accuracy, thereby negatively affecting genetic gains. Several genomic prediction models incorporating G × E have been recently developed and used in genomic selection of plant breeding programs. Genomic prediction models for assessing multi-environment G × E interaction are extensions of a single-environment model, and have advantages and limitations. In this study, we propose two multi-environment Bayesian genomic models: the first model considers genetic effects [Formula: see text] that can be assessed by the Kronecker product of variance-covariance matrices of genetic correlations between environments and genomic kernels through markers under two linear kernel methods, linear (genomic best linear unbiased predictors, GBLUP) and Gaussian (Gaussian kernel, GK). The other model has the same genetic component as the first model [Formula: see text] plus an extra component, F: , that captures random effects between environments that were not captured by the random effects [Formula: see text] We used five CIMMYT data sets (one maize and four wheat) that were previously used in different studies. Results show that models with G × E always have superior prediction ability than single-environment models, and the higher prediction ability of multi-environment models with [Formula: see text] over the multi-environment model with only u occurred 85% of the time with GBLUP and 45% of the time with GK across the five data sets. The latter result indicated that including the random effect f is still beneficial for increasing prediction ability after adjusting by the random effect [Formula: see text]. Copyright © 2017 Cuevas et al.

On the use of multi-agent systems for the monitoring of industrial systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rezki, Nafissa; Kazar, Okba; Mouss, Leila Hayet; Kahloul, Laid; Rezki, Djamil

2016-03-01

The objective of the current paper is to present an intelligent system for complex process monitoring, based on artificial intelligence technologies. This system aims to realize with success all the complex process monitoring tasks that are: detection, diagnosis, identification and reconfiguration. For this purpose, the development of a multi-agent system that combines multiple intelligences such as: multivariate control charts, neural networks, Bayesian networks and expert systems has became a necessity. The proposed system is evaluated in the monitoring of the complex process Tennessee Eastman process.

Organellar proteome analyses of ricin toxin-treated HeLa cells.

PubMed

Liao, Peng; Li, Yunhu; Li, Hongyang; Liu, Wensen

2016-07-01

Apoptosis triggered by ricin toxin (RT) has previously been associated with certain cellular organellar compartments, but the diversity in the composition of the organellar proteins remains unclear. Here, we applied a shotgun proteomics strategy to examine the differential expression of proteins in the mitochondria, nuclei, and cytoplasm of HeLa cells treated and not treated with RT. Data were combined with a global bioinformatics analysis and experimental confirmations. A total of 3107 proteins were identified. Bioinformatics predictors (Proteome Analyst, WoLF PSORT, TargetP, MitoPred, Nucleo, MultiLoc, and k-nearest neighbor) and a Bayesian model that integrated these predictors were used to predict the locations of 1349 distinct organellar proteins. Our data indicate that the Bayesian model was more efficient than the individual implementation of these predictors. Additionally, a Biomolecular Interaction Network (BIN) analysis was used to identify 149 BIN subnetworks. Our experimental confirmations indicate that certain apoptosis-related proteins (e.g. cytochrome c, enolase, lamin B, Bax, and Drp1) were found to be translocated and had variable expression levels. These results provide new insights for the systematic understanding of RT-induced apoptosis responses. © The Author(s) 2014.

Sparse Bayesian Inference of White Matter Fiber Orientations from Compressed Multi-resolution Diffusion MRI

PubMed Central

Pisharady, Pramod Kumar; Duarte-Carvajalino, Julio M; Sotiropoulos, Stamatios N; Sapiro, Guillermo; Lenglet, Christophe

2017-01-01

The RubiX [1] algorithm combines high SNR characteristics of low resolution data with high spacial specificity of high resolution data, to extract microstructural tissue parameters from diffusion MRI. In this paper we focus on estimating crossing fiber orientations and introduce sparsity to the RubiX algorithm, making it suitable for reconstruction from compressed (under-sampled) data. We propose a sparse Bayesian algorithm for estimation of fiber orientations and volume fractions from compressed diffusion MRI. The data at high resolution is modeled using a parametric spherical deconvolution approach and represented using a dictionary created with the exponential decay components along different possible directions. Volume fractions of fibers along these orientations define the dictionary weights. The data at low resolution is modeled using a spatial partial volume representation. The proposed dictionary representation and sparsity priors consider the dependence between fiber orientations and the spatial redundancy in data representation. Our method exploits the sparsity of fiber orientations, therefore facilitating inference from under-sampled data. Experimental results show improved accuracy and decreased uncertainty in fiber orientation estimates. For under-sampled data, the proposed method is also shown to produce more robust estimates of fiber orientations. PMID:28845484

Sparse Bayesian Inference of White Matter Fiber Orientations from Compressed Multi-resolution Diffusion MRI.

PubMed

Pisharady, Pramod Kumar; Duarte-Carvajalino, Julio M; Sotiropoulos, Stamatios N; Sapiro, Guillermo; Lenglet, Christophe

2015-10-01

The RubiX [1] algorithm combines high SNR characteristics of low resolution data with high spacial specificity of high resolution data, to extract microstructural tissue parameters from diffusion MRI. In this paper we focus on estimating crossing fiber orientations and introduce sparsity to the RubiX algorithm, making it suitable for reconstruction from compressed (under-sampled) data. We propose a sparse Bayesian algorithm for estimation of fiber orientations and volume fractions from compressed diffusion MRI. The data at high resolution is modeled using a parametric spherical deconvolution approach and represented using a dictionary created with the exponential decay components along different possible directions. Volume fractions of fibers along these orientations define the dictionary weights. The data at low resolution is modeled using a spatial partial volume representation. The proposed dictionary representation and sparsity priors consider the dependence between fiber orientations and the spatial redundancy in data representation. Our method exploits the sparsity of fiber orientations, therefore facilitating inference from under-sampled data. Experimental results show improved accuracy and decreased uncertainty in fiber orientation estimates. For under-sampled data, the proposed method is also shown to produce more robust estimates of fiber orientations.

MultiNest: Efficient and Robust Bayesian Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feroz, F.; Hobson, M. P.; Bridges, M.

2011-09-01

We present further development and the first public release of our multimodal nested sampling algorithm, called MultiNest. This Bayesian inference tool calculates the evidence, with an associated error estimate, and produces posterior samples from distributions that may contain multiple modes and pronounced (curving) degeneracies in high dimensions. The developments presented here lead to further substantial improvements in sampling efficiency and robustness, as compared to the original algorithm presented in Feroz & Hobson (2008), which itself significantly outperformed existing MCMC techniques in a wide range of astrophysical inference problems. The accuracy and economy of the MultiNest algorithm is demonstrated by application to two toy problems and to a cosmological inference problem focusing on the extension of the vanilla LambdaCDM model to include spatial curvature and a varying equation of state for dark energy. The MultiNest software is fully parallelized using MPI and includes an interface to CosmoMC. It will also be released as part of the SuperBayeS package, for the analysis of supersymmetric theories of particle physics, at this http URL.

Bayesian outcome-based strategy classification.

PubMed

Lee, Michael D

2016-03-01

Hilbig and Moshagen (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21, 1431-1443, 2014) recently developed a method for making inferences about the decision processes people use in multi-attribute forced choice tasks. Their paper makes a number of worthwhile theoretical and methodological contributions. Theoretically, they provide an insightful psychological motivation for a probabilistic extension of the widely-used "weighted additive" (WADD) model, and show how this model, as well as other important models like "take-the-best" (TTB), can and should be expressed in terms of meaningful priors. Methodologically, they develop an inference approach based on the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principles that balances both the goodness-of-fit and complexity of the decision models they consider. This paper aims to preserve these useful contributions, but provide a complementary Bayesian approach with some theoretical and methodological advantages. We develop a simple graphical model, implemented in JAGS, that allows for fully Bayesian inferences about which models people use to make decisions. To demonstrate the Bayesian approach, we apply it to the models and data considered by Hilbig and Moshagen (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21, 1431-1443, 2014), showing how a prior predictive analysis of the models, and posterior inferences about which models people use and the parameter settings at which they use them, can contribute to our understanding of human decision making.

A new framework for modeling urban land expansion in peri-urban area by combining multi-source datasets and data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.; Xiao, R.; Li, X.

2015-12-01

Peri-urban area is a new type region under the impacts of both rural Industrialization and the radiation of metropolitan during rapid urbanization. Due to its complex natural and social characteristics and unique development patterns, many problems such as environmental pollution and land use waste emerged, which became an urgent issue to be addressed. Study area in this paper covers three typical peri-urban districts (Pudong, Fengxian and Jinshan), which around the Shanghai inner city. By coupling cellular automata and multi-agent system model as the basic tools, this research focus on modelling the urban land expansion and driving mechanism in peri-urban area. The big data is aslo combined with the Bayesian maximum entropy method (BME) for spatiotemporal prediction of multi-source data, which expand the dataset of urban expansion models. Data assimilation method is used to optimize the parameters of the coupling model and minimize the uncertainty of observations, improving the precision of future simulation in peri-urban area. By setting quantitative parameters, the coupling model can effectively improve the simulation of the process of urban land expansion under different policies and management schemes, in order to provide scientificimplications for new urbanization strategy. In this research, we precise the urban land expansion simulation and prediction for peri-urban area, expand the scopes and selections of data acquisition measurements and methods, develop the new applications of the data assimilation method in geographical science, provide a new idea for understanding the inherent rules of urban land expansion, and give theoretical and practical support for the peri-urban area in urban planning and decision making.

Enhancing the Modeling of PFOA Pharmacokinetics with Bayesian Analysis

EPA Science Inventory

The detail sufficient to describe the pharmacokinetics (PK) for perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and the methods necessary to combine information from multiple data sets are both subjects of ongoing investigation. Bayesian analysis provides tools to accommodate these goals. We exa...

A mathematical model approach toward combining information from multiple image projections of the same patient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chawla, Amarpreet S.; Samei, Ehsan; Abbey, Craig

2007-03-01

In this study, we used a mathematical observer model to combine information obtained from multiple angular projections of the same breast to determine the overall detection performance of a multi-projection breast imaging system in detectability of a simulated mass. 82 subjects participated in the study and 25 angular projections of each breast were acquired. Projections from a simulated 3 mm 3-D lesion were added to the projection images. The lesion was assumed to be embedded in the compressed breast at a distance of 3 cm from the detector. Hotelling observer with Laguerre-Gauss channels (LG CHO) was applied to each image. Detectability was analyzed in terms of ROC curves and the area under ROC curves (AUC). The critical question studied is how to best integrate the individual decision variables across multiple (correlated) views. Towards that end, three different methods were investigated. Specifically, 1) ROCs from different projections were simply averaged; 2) the test statistics from different projections were averaged; and 3) a Bayesian decision fusion rule was used. Finally, AUC of the combined ROC was used as a parameter to optimize the acquisition parameters to maximize the performance of the system. It was found that the Bayesian decision fusion technique performs better than the other two techniques and likely offers the best approximation of the diagnostic process. Furthermore, if the total dose level is held constant at 1/25th of dual-view mammographic screening dose, the highest detectability performance is observed when considering only two projections spread along an angular span of 11.4°.

Cross-country transferability of multi-variable damage models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagenaar, Dennis; Lüdtke, Stefan; Kreibich, Heidi; Bouwer, Laurens

2017-04-01

Flood damage assessment is often done with simple damage curves based only on flood water depth. Additionally, damage models are often transferred in space and time, e.g. from region to region or from one flood event to another. Validation has shown that depth-damage curve estimates are associated with high uncertainties, particularly when applied in regions outside the area where the data for curve development was collected. Recently, progress has been made with multi-variable damage models created with data-mining techniques, i.e. Bayesian Networks and random forest. However, it is still unknown to what extent and under which conditions model transfers are possible and reliable. Model validations in different countries will provide valuable insights into the transferability of multi-variable damage models. In this study we compare multi-variable models developed on basis of flood damage datasets from Germany as well as from The Netherlands. Data from several German floods was collected using computer aided telephone interviews. Data from the 1993 Meuse flood in the Netherlands is available, based on compensations paid by the government. The Bayesian network and random forest based models are applied and validated in both countries on basis of the individual datasets. A major challenge was the harmonization of the variables between both datasets due to factors like differences in variable definitions, and regional and temporal differences in flood hazard and exposure characteristics. Results of model validations and comparisons in both countries are discussed, particularly in respect to encountered challenges and possible solutions for an improvement of model transferability.

Bayesian Estimation of Multi-Unidimensional Graded Response IRT Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kuo, Tzu-Chun

2015-01-01

Item response theory (IRT) has gained an increasing popularity in large-scale educational and psychological testing situations because of its theoretical advantages over classical test theory. Unidimensional graded response models (GRMs) are useful when polytomous response items are designed to measure a unified latent trait. They are limited in…

Analysis of a Multi-Fidelity Surrogate for Handling Real Gas Equations of State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouellet, Frederick; Park, Chanyoung; Rollin, Bertrand; Balachandar, S.

2017-06-01

The explosive dispersal of particles is a complex multiphase and multi-species fluid flow problem. In these flows, the detonation products of the explosive must be treated as real gas while the ideal gas equation of state is used for the surrounding air. As the products expand outward from the detonation point, they mix with ambient air and create a mixing region where both state equations must be satisfied. One of the most accurate, yet computationally expensive, methods to handle this problem is an algorithm that iterates between both equations of state until pressure and thermal equilibrium are achieved inside of each computational cell. This work aims to use a multi-fidelity surrogate model to replace this process. A Kriging model is used to produce a curve fit which interpolates selected data from the iterative algorithm using Bayesian statistics. We study the model performance with respect to the iterative method in simulations using a finite volume code. The model's (i) computational speed, (ii) memory requirements and (iii) computational accuracy are analyzed to show the benefits of this novel approach. Also, optimizing the combination of model accuracy and computational speed through the choice of sampling points is explained. This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, Advanced Simulation and Computing Program as a Cooperative Agreement under the Predictive Science Academic Alliance Program under Contract No. DE-NA0002378.

A comparative analysis of 9 multi-model averaging approaches in hydrological continuous streamflow simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arsenault, Richard; Gatien, Philippe; Renaud, Benoit; Brissette, François; Martel, Jean-Luc

2015-10-01

This study aims to test whether a weighted combination of several hydrological models can simulate flows more accurately than the models taken individually. In addition, the project attempts to identify the most efficient model averaging method and the optimal number of models to include in the weighting scheme. In order to address the first objective, streamflow was simulated using four lumped hydrological models (HSAMI, HMETS, MOHYSE and GR4J-6), each of which were calibrated with three different objective functions on 429 watersheds. The resulting 12 hydrographs (4 models × 3 metrics) were weighted and combined with the help of 9 averaging methods which are the simple arithmetic mean (SAM), Akaike information criterion (AICA), Bates-Granger (BGA), Bayes information criterion (BICA), Bayesian model averaging (BMA), Granger-Ramanathan average variant A, B and C (GRA, GRB and GRC) and the average by SCE-UA optimization (SCA). The same weights were then applied to the hydrographs in validation mode, and the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency metric was measured between the averaged and observed hydrographs. Statistical analyses were performed to compare the accuracy of weighted methods to that of individual models. A Kruskal-Wallis test and a multi-objective optimization algorithm were then used to identify the most efficient weighted method and the optimal number of models to integrate. Results suggest that the GRA, GRB, GRC and SCA weighted methods perform better than the individual members. Model averaging from these four methods were superior to the best of the individual members in 76% of the cases. Optimal combinations on all watersheds included at least one of each of the four hydrological models. None of the optimal combinations included all members of the ensemble of 12 hydrographs. The Granger-Ramanathan average variant C (GRC) is recommended as the best compromise between accuracy, speed of execution, and simplicity.

Refining value-at-risk estimates using a Bayesian Markov-switching GJR-GARCH copula-EVT model.

PubMed

Sampid, Marius Galabe; Hasim, Haslifah M; Dai, Hongsheng

2018-01-01

In this paper, we propose a model for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a Bayesian Markov-switching GJR-GARCH(1,1) model with skewed Student's-t innovation, copula functions and extreme value theory. A Bayesian Markov-switching GJR-GARCH(1,1) model that identifies non-constant volatility over time and allows the GARCH parameters to vary over time following a Markov process, is combined with copula functions and EVT to formulate the Bayesian Markov-switching GJR-GARCH(1,1) copula-EVT VaR model, which is then used to forecast the level of risk on financial asset returns. We further propose a new method for threshold selection in EVT analysis, which we term the hybrid method. Empirical and back-testing results show that the proposed VaR models capture VaR reasonably well in periods of calm and in periods of crisis.

Incorporating approximation error in surrogate based Bayesian inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Zeng, L.; Li, W.; Wu, L.

2015-12-01

There are increasing interests in applying surrogates for inverse Bayesian modeling to reduce repetitive evaluations of original model. In this way, the computational cost is expected to be saved. However, the approximation error of surrogate model is usually overlooked. This is partly because that it is difficult to evaluate the approximation error for many surrogates. Previous studies have shown that, the direct combination of surrogates and Bayesian methods (e.g., Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC) may lead to biased estimations when the surrogate cannot emulate the highly nonlinear original system. This problem can be alleviated by implementing MCMC in a two-stage manner. However, the computational cost is still high since a relatively large number of original model simulations are required. In this study, we illustrate the importance of incorporating approximation error in inverse Bayesian modeling. Gaussian process (GP) is chosen to construct the surrogate for its convenience in approximation error evaluation. Numerical cases of Bayesian experimental design and parameter estimation for contaminant source identification are used to illustrate this idea. It is shown that, once the surrogate approximation error is well incorporated into Bayesian framework, promising results can be obtained even when the surrogate is directly used, and no further original model simulations are required.

A multi-agent intelligent environment for medical knowledge.

PubMed

Vicari, Rosa M; Flores, Cecilia D; Silvestre, André M; Seixas, Louise J; Ladeira, Marcelo; Coelho, Helder

2003-03-01

AMPLIA is a multi-agent intelligent learning environment designed to support training of diagnostic reasoning and modelling of domains with complex and uncertain knowledge. AMPLIA focuses on the medical area. It is a system that deals with uncertainty under the Bayesian network approach, where learner-modelling tasks will consist of creating a Bayesian network for a problem the system will present. The construction of a network involves qualitative and quantitative aspects. The qualitative part concerns the network topology, that is, causal relations among the domain variables. After it is ready, the quantitative part is specified. It is composed of the distribution of conditional probability of the variables represented. A negotiation process (managed by an intelligent MediatorAgent) will treat the differences of topology and probability distribution between the model the learner built and the one built-in in the system. That negotiation process occurs between the agents that represent the expert knowledge domain (DomainAgent) and the agent that represents the learner knowledge (LearnerAgent).

A comprehensive Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for the city of Naples (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anita, G.; Tonini, R.; Selva, J.; Sandri, L.; Pierdominici, S.; Faenza, L.; Zaccarelli, L.

2012-12-01

A comprehensive Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) should consider different tsunamigenic sources (seismic events, slide failures, volcanic eruptions) to calculate the hazard on given target sites. This implies a multi-disciplinary analysis of all natural tsunamigenic sources, in a multi-hazard/risk framework, which considers also the effects of interaction/cascade events. Our approach shows the ongoing effort to analyze the comprehensive PTHA for the city of Naples (Italy) including all types of sources located in the Tyrrhenian Sea, as developed within the Italian project ByMuR (Bayesian Multi-Risk Assessment). The project combines a multi-hazard/risk approach to treat the interactions among different hazards, and a Bayesian approach to handle the uncertainties. The natural potential tsunamigenic sources analyzed are: 1) submarine seismic sources located on active faults in the Tyrrhenian Sea and close to the Southern Italian shore line (also we consider the effects of the inshore seismic sources and the associated active faults which we provide their rapture properties), 2) mass failures and collapses around the target area (spatially identified on the basis of their propensity to failure), and 3) volcanic sources mainly identified by pyroclastic flows and collapses from the volcanoes in the Neapolitan area (Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ischia). All these natural sources are here preliminary analyzed and combined, in order to provide a complete picture of a PTHA for the city of Naples. In addition, the treatment of interaction/cascade effects is formally discussed in the case of significant temporary variations in the short-term PTHA due to an earthquake.

A Bayesian method for assessing multiscalespecies-habitat relationships

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stuber, Erica F.; Gruber, Lutz F.; Fontaine, Joseph J.

2017-01-01

ContextScientists face several theoretical and methodological challenges in appropriately describing fundamental wildlife-habitat relationships in models. The spatial scales of habitat relationships are often unknown, and are expected to follow a multi-scale hierarchy. Typical frequentist or information theoretic approaches often suffer under collinearity in multi-scale studies, fail to converge when models are complex or represent an intractable computational burden when candidate model sets are large.ObjectivesOur objective was to implement an automated, Bayesian method for inference on the spatial scales of habitat variables that best predict animal abundance.MethodsWe introduce Bayesian latent indicator scale selection (BLISS), a Bayesian method to select spatial scales of predictors using latent scale indicator variables that are estimated with reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. BLISS does not suffer from collinearity, and substantially reduces computation time of studies. We present a simulation study to validate our method and apply our method to a case-study of land cover predictors for ring-necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) abundance in Nebraska, USA.ResultsOur method returns accurate descriptions of the explanatory power of multiple spatial scales, and unbiased and precise parameter estimates under commonly encountered data limitations including spatial scale autocorrelation, effect size, and sample size. BLISS outperforms commonly used model selection methods including stepwise and AIC, and reduces runtime by 90%.ConclusionsGiven the pervasiveness of scale-dependency in ecology, and the implications of mismatches between the scales of analyses and ecological processes, identifying the spatial scales over which species are integrating habitat information is an important step in understanding species-habitat relationships. BLISS is a widely applicable method for identifying important spatial scales, propagating scale uncertainty, and testing hypotheses of scaling relationships.

THREAT ANTICIPATION AND DECEPTIVE REASONING USING BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allgood, Glenn O; Olama, Mohammed M; Lake, Joe E

Recent events highlight the need for tools to anticipate threats posed by terrorists. Assessing these threats requires combining information from disparate data sources such as analytic models, simulations, historical data, sensor networks, and user judgments. These disparate data can be combined in a coherent, analytically defensible, and understandable manner using a Bayesian belief network (BBN). In this paper, we develop a BBN threat anticipatory model based on a deceptive reasoning algorithm using a network engineering process that treats the probability distributions of the BBN nodes within the broader context of the system development process.

Personalized Multi-Student Improvement Based on Bayesian Cybernetics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaburlasos, Vassilis G.; Marinagi, Catherine C.; Tsoukalas, Vassilis Th.

2008-01-01

This work presents innovative cybernetics (feedback) techniques based on Bayesian statistics for drawing questions from an Item Bank towards personalized multi-student improvement. A novel software tool, namely "Module for Adaptive Assessment of Students" (or, "MAAS" for short), implements the proposed (feedback) techniques. In conclusion, a pilot…

Bayesian screening for active compounds in high-dimensional chemical spaces combining property descriptors and molecular fingerprints.

PubMed

Vogt, Martin; Bajorath, Jürgen

2008-01-01

Bayesian classifiers are increasingly being used to distinguish active from inactive compounds and search large databases for novel active molecules. We introduce an approach to directly combine the contributions of property descriptors and molecular fingerprints in the search for active compounds that is based on a Bayesian framework. Conventionally, property descriptors and fingerprints are used as alternative features for virtual screening methods. Following the approach introduced here, probability distributions of descriptor values and fingerprint bit settings are calculated for active and database molecules and the divergence between the resulting combined distributions is determined as a measure of biological activity. In test calculations on a large number of compound activity classes, this methodology was found to consistently perform better than similarity searching using fingerprints and multiple reference compounds or Bayesian screening calculations using probability distributions calculated only from property descriptors. These findings demonstrate that there is considerable synergy between different types of property descriptors and fingerprints in recognizing diverse structure-activity relationships, at least in the context of Bayesian modeling.

Quantifying model-structure- and parameter-driven uncertainties in spring wheat phenology prediction with Bayesian analysis

DOE PAGES

Alderman, Phillip D.; Stanfill, Bryan

2016-10-06

Recent international efforts have brought renewed emphasis on the comparison of different agricultural systems models. Thus far, analysis of model-ensemble simulated results has not clearly differentiated between ensemble prediction uncertainties due to model structural differences per se and those due to parameter value uncertainties. Additionally, despite increasing use of Bayesian parameter estimation approaches with field-scale crop models, inadequate attention has been given to the full posterior distributions for estimated parameters. The objectives of this study were to quantify the impact of parameter value uncertainty on prediction uncertainty for modeling spring wheat phenology using Bayesian analysis and to assess the relativemore » contributions of model-structure-driven and parameter-value-driven uncertainty to overall prediction uncertainty. This study used a random walk Metropolis algorithm to estimate parameters for 30 spring wheat genotypes using nine phenology models based on multi-location trial data for days to heading and days to maturity. Across all cases, parameter-driven uncertainty accounted for between 19 and 52% of predictive uncertainty, while model-structure-driven uncertainty accounted for between 12 and 64%. Here, this study demonstrated the importance of quantifying both model-structure- and parameter-value-driven uncertainty when assessing overall prediction uncertainty in modeling spring wheat phenology. More generally, Bayesian parameter estimation provided a useful framework for quantifying and analyzing sources of prediction uncertainty.« less

A combined Fuzzy and Naive Bayesian strategy can be used to assign event codes to injury narratives.

PubMed

Marucci-Wellman, H; Lehto, M; Corns, H

2011-12-01

Bayesian methods show promise for classifying injury narratives from large administrative datasets into cause groups. This study examined a combined approach where two Bayesian models (Fuzzy and Naïve) were used to either classify a narrative or select it for manual review. Injury narratives were extracted from claims filed with a worker's compensation insurance provider between January 2002 and December 2004. Narratives were separated into a training set (n=11,000) and prediction set (n=3,000). Expert coders assigned two-digit Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Injury and Illness Classification event codes to each narrative. Fuzzy and Naïve Bayesian models were developed using manually classified cases in the training set. Two semi-automatic machine coding strategies were evaluated. The first strategy assigned cases for manual review if the Fuzzy and Naïve models disagreed on the classification. The second strategy selected additional cases for manual review from the Agree dataset using prediction strength to reach a level of 50% computer coding and 50% manual coding. When agreement alone was used as the filtering strategy, the majority were coded by the computer (n=1,928, 64%) leaving 36% for manual review. The overall combined (human plus computer) sensitivity was 0.90 and positive predictive value (PPV) was >0.90 for 11 of 18 2-digit event categories. Implementing the 2nd strategy improved results with an overall sensitivity of 0.95 and PPV >0.90 for 17 of 18 categories. A combined Naïve-Fuzzy Bayesian approach can classify some narratives with high accuracy and identify others most beneficial for manual review, reducing the burden on human coders.

Can I Order a Burger at rnacdonalds.com? Visual Similarity Effects of Multi-Letter Combinations at the Early Stages of Word Recognition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marcet, Ana; Perea, Manuel

2018-01-01

Previous research has shown that early in the word recognition process, there is some degree of uncertainty concerning letter identity and letter position. Here, we examined whether this uncertainty also extends to the mapping of letter features onto letters, as predicted by the Bayesian Reader (Norris & Kinoshita, 2012). Indeed, anecdotal…

Joint Facial Action Unit Detection and Feature Fusion: A Multi-conditional Learning Approach.

PubMed

Eleftheriadis, Stefanos; Rudovic, Ognjen; Pantic, Maja

2016-10-05

Automated analysis of facial expressions can benefit many domains, from marketing to clinical diagnosis of neurodevelopmental disorders. Facial expressions are typically encoded as a combination of facial muscle activations, i.e., action units. Depending on context, these action units co-occur in specific patterns, and rarely in isolation. Yet, most existing methods for automatic action unit detection fail to exploit dependencies among them, and the corresponding facial features. To address this, we propose a novel multi-conditional latent variable model for simultaneous fusion of facial features and joint action unit detection. Specifically, the proposed model performs feature fusion in a generative fashion via a low-dimensional shared subspace, while simultaneously performing action unit detection using a discriminative classification approach. We show that by combining the merits of both approaches, the proposed methodology outperforms existing purely discriminative/generative methods for the target task. To reduce the number of parameters, and avoid overfitting, a novel Bayesian learning approach based on Monte Carlo sampling is proposed, to integrate out the shared subspace. We validate the proposed method on posed and spontaneous data from three publicly available datasets (CK+, DISFA and Shoulder-pain), and show that both feature fusion and joint learning of action units leads to improved performance compared to the state-of-the-art methods for the task.

Prediction of near-term breast cancer risk using a Bayesian belief network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Bin; Ramalingam, Pandiyarajan; Hariharan, Harishwaran; Leader, Joseph K.; Gur, David

2013-03-01

Accurately predicting near-term breast cancer risk is an important prerequisite for establishing an optimal personalized breast cancer screening paradigm. In previous studies, we investigated and tested the feasibility of developing a unique near-term breast cancer risk prediction model based on a new risk factor associated with bilateral mammographic density asymmetry between the left and right breasts of a woman using a single feature. In this study we developed a multi-feature based Bayesian belief network (BBN) that combines bilateral mammographic density asymmetry with three other popular risk factors, namely (1) age, (2) family history, and (3) average breast density, to further increase the discriminatory power of our cancer risk model. A dataset involving "prior" negative mammography examinations of 348 women was used in the study. Among these women, 174 had breast cancer detected and verified in the next sequential screening examinations, and 174 remained negative (cancer-free). A BBN was applied to predict the risk of each woman having cancer detected six to 18 months later following the negative screening mammography. The prediction results were compared with those using single features. The prediction accuracy was significantly increased when using the BBN. The area under the ROC curve increased from an AUC=0.70 to 0.84 (p<0.01), while the positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) also increased from a PPV=0.61 to 0.78 and an NPV=0.65 to 0.75, respectively. This study demonstrates that a multi-feature based BBN can more accurately predict the near-term breast cancer risk than with a single feature.

A menu-driven software package of Bayesian nonparametric (and parametric) mixed models for regression analysis and density estimation.

PubMed

Karabatsos, George

2017-02-01

Most of applied statistics involves regression analysis of data. In practice, it is important to specify a regression model that has minimal assumptions which are not violated by data, to ensure that statistical inferences from the model are informative and not misleading. This paper presents a stand-alone and menu-driven software package, Bayesian Regression: Nonparametric and Parametric Models, constructed from MATLAB Compiler. Currently, this package gives the user a choice from 83 Bayesian models for data analysis. They include 47 Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) infinite-mixture regression models; 5 BNP infinite-mixture models for density estimation; and 31 normal random effects models (HLMs), including normal linear models. Each of the 78 regression models handles either a continuous, binary, or ordinal dependent variable, and can handle multi-level (grouped) data. All 83 Bayesian models can handle the analysis of weighted observations (e.g., for meta-analysis), and the analysis of left-censored, right-censored, and/or interval-censored data. Each BNP infinite-mixture model has a mixture distribution assigned one of various BNP prior distributions, including priors defined by either the Dirichlet process, Pitman-Yor process (including the normalized stable process), beta (two-parameter) process, normalized inverse-Gaussian process, geometric weights prior, dependent Dirichlet process, or the dependent infinite-probits prior. The software user can mouse-click to select a Bayesian model and perform data analysis via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. After the sampling completes, the software automatically opens text output that reports MCMC-based estimates of the model's posterior distribution and model predictive fit to the data. Additional text and/or graphical output can be generated by mouse-clicking other menu options. This includes output of MCMC convergence analyses, and estimates of the model's posterior predictive distribution, for selected functionals and values of covariates. The software is illustrated through the BNP regression analysis of real data.

Development of dynamic Bayesian models for web application test management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azarnova, T. V.; Polukhin, P. V.; Bondarenko, Yu V.; Kashirina, I. L.

2018-03-01

The mathematical apparatus of dynamic Bayesian networks is an effective and technically proven tool that can be used to model complex stochastic dynamic processes. According to the results of the research, mathematical models and methods of dynamic Bayesian networks provide a high coverage of stochastic tasks associated with error testing in multiuser software products operated in a dynamically changing environment. Formalized representation of the discrete test process as a dynamic Bayesian model allows us to organize the logical connection between individual test assets for multiple time slices. This approach gives an opportunity to present testing as a discrete process with set structural components responsible for the generation of test assets. Dynamic Bayesian network-based models allow us to combine in one management area individual units and testing components with different functionalities and a direct influence on each other in the process of comprehensive testing of various groups of computer bugs. The application of the proposed models provides an opportunity to use a consistent approach to formalize test principles and procedures, methods used to treat situational error signs, and methods used to produce analytical conclusions based on test results.

Trans-dimensional and hierarchical Bayesian approaches toward rigorous estimation of seismic sources and structures in the Northeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Seongryong; Tkalčić, Hrvoje; Mustać, Marija; Rhie, Junkee; Ford, Sean

2016-04-01

A framework is presented within which we provide rigorous estimations for seismic sources and structures in the Northeast Asia. We use Bayesian inversion methods, which enable statistical estimations of models and their uncertainties based on data information. Ambiguities in error statistics and model parameterizations are addressed by hierarchical and trans-dimensional (trans-D) techniques, which can be inherently implemented in the Bayesian inversions. Hence reliable estimation of model parameters and their uncertainties is possible, thus avoiding arbitrary regularizations and parameterizations. Hierarchical and trans-D inversions are performed to develop a three-dimensional velocity model using ambient noise data. To further improve the model, we perform joint inversions with receiver function data using a newly developed Bayesian method. For the source estimation, a novel moment tensor inversion method is presented and applied to regional waveform data of the North Korean nuclear explosion tests. By the combination of new Bayesian techniques and the structural model, coupled with meaningful uncertainties related to each of the processes, more quantitative monitoring and discrimination of seismic events is possible.

A Semi-Parametric Bayesian Mixture Modeling Approach for the Analysis of Judge Mediated Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muckle, Timothy Joseph

2010-01-01

Existing methods for the analysis of ordinal-level data arising from judge ratings, such as the Multi-Facet Rasch model (MFRM, or the so-called Facets model) have been widely used in assessment in order to render fair examinee ability estimates in situations where the judges vary in their behavior or severity. However, this model makes certain…

A Fault Diagnosis Methodology for Gear Pump Based on EEMD and Bayesian Network

PubMed Central

Liu, Zengkai; Liu, Yonghong; Shan, Hongkai; Cai, Baoping; Huang, Qing

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a fault diagnosis methodology for a gear pump based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method and the Bayesian network. Essentially, the presented scheme is a multi-source information fusion based methodology. Compared with the conventional fault diagnosis with only EEMD, the proposed method is able to take advantage of all useful information besides sensor signals. The presented diagnostic Bayesian network consists of a fault layer, a fault feature layer and a multi-source information layer. Vibration signals from sensor measurement are decomposed by the EEMD method and the energy of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) are calculated as fault features. These features are added into the fault feature layer in the Bayesian network. The other sources of useful information are added to the information layer. The generalized three-layer Bayesian network can be developed by fully incorporating faults and fault symptoms as well as other useful information such as naked eye inspection and maintenance records. Therefore, diagnostic accuracy and capacity can be improved. The proposed methodology is applied to the fault diagnosis of a gear pump and the structure and parameters of the Bayesian network is established. Compared with artificial neural network and support vector machine classification algorithms, the proposed model has the best diagnostic performance when sensor data is used only. A case study has demonstrated that some information from human observation or system repair records is very helpful to the fault diagnosis. It is effective and efficient in diagnosing faults based on uncertain, incomplete information. PMID:25938760

A Fault Diagnosis Methodology for Gear Pump Based on EEMD and Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Liu, Zengkai; Liu, Yonghong; Shan, Hongkai; Cai, Baoping; Huang, Qing

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a fault diagnosis methodology for a gear pump based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method and the Bayesian network. Essentially, the presented scheme is a multi-source information fusion based methodology. Compared with the conventional fault diagnosis with only EEMD, the proposed method is able to take advantage of all useful information besides sensor signals. The presented diagnostic Bayesian network consists of a fault layer, a fault feature layer and a multi-source information layer. Vibration signals from sensor measurement are decomposed by the EEMD method and the energy of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) are calculated as fault features. These features are added into the fault feature layer in the Bayesian network. The other sources of useful information are added to the information layer. The generalized three-layer Bayesian network can be developed by fully incorporating faults and fault symptoms as well as other useful information such as naked eye inspection and maintenance records. Therefore, diagnostic accuracy and capacity can be improved. The proposed methodology is applied to the fault diagnosis of a gear pump and the structure and parameters of the Bayesian network is established. Compared with artificial neural network and support vector machine classification algorithms, the proposed model has the best diagnostic performance when sensor data is used only. A case study has demonstrated that some information from human observation or system repair records is very helpful to the fault diagnosis. It is effective and efficient in diagnosing faults based on uncertain, incomplete information.

Deep Learning with Hierarchical Convolutional Factor Analysis

PubMed Central

Chen, Bo; Polatkan, Gungor; Sapiro, Guillermo; Blei, David; Dunson, David; Carin, Lawrence

2013-01-01

Unsupervised multi-layered (“deep”) models are considered for general data, with a particular focus on imagery. The model is represented using a hierarchical convolutional factor-analysis construction, with sparse factor loadings and scores. The computation of layer-dependent model parameters is implemented within a Bayesian setting, employing a Gibbs sampler and variational Bayesian (VB) analysis, that explicitly exploit the convolutional nature of the expansion. In order to address large-scale and streaming data, an online version of VB is also developed. The number of basis functions or dictionary elements at each layer is inferred from the data, based on a beta-Bernoulli implementation of the Indian buffet process. Example results are presented for several image-processing applications, with comparisons to related models in the literature. PMID:23787342

General quantitative genetic methods for comparative biology: phylogenies, taxonomies and multi-trait models for continuous and categorical characters.

PubMed

Hadfield, J D; Nakagawa, S

2010-03-01

Although many of the statistical techniques used in comparative biology were originally developed in quantitative genetics, subsequent development of comparative techniques has progressed in relative isolation. Consequently, many of the new and planned developments in comparative analysis already have well-tested solutions in quantitative genetics. In this paper, we take three recent publications that develop phylogenetic meta-analysis, either implicitly or explicitly, and show how they can be considered as quantitative genetic models. We highlight some of the difficulties with the proposed solutions, and demonstrate that standard quantitative genetic theory and software offer solutions. We also show how results from Bayesian quantitative genetics can be used to create efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for phylogenetic mixed models, thereby extending their generality to non-Gaussian data. Of particular utility is the development of multinomial models for analysing the evolution of discrete traits, and the development of multi-trait models in which traits can follow different distributions. Meta-analyses often include a nonrandom collection of species for which the full phylogenetic tree has only been partly resolved. Using missing data theory, we show how the presented models can be used to correct for nonrandom sampling and show how taxonomies and phylogenies can be combined to give a flexible framework with which to model dependence.

IMAGINE: Interstellar MAGnetic field INference Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steininger, Theo

2018-03-01

IMAGINE (Interstellar MAGnetic field INference Engine) performs inference on generic parametric models of the Galaxy. The modular open source framework uses highly optimized tools and technology such as the MultiNest sampler (ascl:1109.006) and the information field theory framework NIFTy (ascl:1302.013) to create an instance of the Milky Way based on a set of parameters for physical observables, using Bayesian statistics to judge the mismatch between measured data and model prediction. The flexibility of the IMAGINE framework allows for simple refitting for newly available data sets and makes state-of-the-art Bayesian methods easily accessible particularly for random components of the Galactic magnetic field.

Multi-Step Attack Detection via Bayesian Modeling under Model Parameter Uncertainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cole, Robert

2013-01-01

Organizations in all sectors of business have become highly dependent upon information systems for the conduct of business operations. Of necessity, these information systems are designed with many points of ingress, points of exposure that can be leveraged by a motivated attacker seeking to compromise the confidentiality, integrity or…

Predictive uncertainty analysis of plume distribution for geological carbon sequestration using sparse-grid Bayesian method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, X.; Zhang, G.

2013-12-01

Because of the extensive computational burden, parametric uncertainty analyses are rarely conducted for geological carbon sequestration (GCS) process based multi-phase models. The difficulty of predictive uncertainty analysis for the CO2 plume migration in realistic GCS models is not only due to the spatial distribution of the caprock and reservoir (i.e. heterogeneous model parameters), but also because the GCS optimization estimation problem has multiple local minima due to the complex nonlinear multi-phase (gas and aqueous), and multi-component (water, CO2, salt) transport equations. The geological model built by Doughty and Pruess (2004) for the Frio pilot site (Texas) was selected and assumed to represent the 'true' system, which was composed of seven different facies (geological units) distributed among 10 layers. We chose to calibrate the permeabilities of these facies. Pressure and gas saturation values from this true model were then extracted and used as observations for subsequent model calibration. Random noise was added to the observations to approximate realistic field conditions. Each simulation of the model lasts about 2 hours. In this study, we develop a new approach that improves computational efficiency of Bayesian inference by constructing a surrogate system based on an adaptive sparse-grid stochastic collocation method. This surrogate response surface global optimization algorithm is firstly used to calibrate the model parameters, then prediction uncertainty of the CO2 plume position is quantified due to the propagation from parametric uncertainty in the numerical experiments, which is also compared to the actual plume from the 'true' model. Results prove that the approach is computationally efficient for multi-modal optimization and prediction uncertainty quantification for computationally expensive simulation models. Both our inverse methodology and findings can be broadly applicable to GCS in heterogeneous storage formations.

Multi-subject hierarchical inverse covariance modelling improves estimation of functional brain networks.

PubMed

Colclough, Giles L; Woolrich, Mark W; Harrison, Samuel J; Rojas López, Pedro A; Valdes-Sosa, Pedro A; Smith, Stephen M

2018-05-07

A Bayesian model for sparse, hierarchical, inver-covariance estimation is presented, and applied to multi-subject functional connectivity estimation in the human brain. It enables simultaneous inference of the strength of connectivity between brain regions at both subject and population level, and is applicable to fMRI, MEG and EEG data. Two versions of the model can encourage sparse connectivity, either using continuous priors to suppress irrelevant connections, or using an explicit description of the network structure to estimate the connection probability between each pair of regions. A large evaluation of this model, and thirteen methods that represent the state of the art of inverse covariance modelling, is conducted using both simulated and resting-state functional imaging datasets. Our novel Bayesian approach has similar performance to the best extant alternative, Ng et al.'s Sparse Group Gaussian Graphical Model algorithm, which also is based on a hierarchical structure. Using data from the Human Connectome Project, we show that these hierarchical models are able to reduce the measurement error in MEG beta-band functional networks by 10%, producing concomitant increases in estimates of the genetic influence on functional connectivity. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Bayesian inversion of seismic and electromagnetic data for marine gas reservoir characterization using multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ren, Huiying; Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan

In this study we developed an efficient Bayesian inversion framework for interpreting marine seismic amplitude versus angle (AVA) and controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM) data for marine reservoir characterization. The framework uses a multi-chain Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, which is a hybrid of DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and Adaptive Metropolis (AM) samplers. The inversion framework is tested by estimating reservoir-fluid saturations and porosity based on marine seismic and CSEM data. The multi-chain MCMC is scalable in terms of the number of chains, and is useful for computationally demanding Bayesian model calibration in scientific and engineering problems. As a demonstration,more » the approach is used to efficiently and accurately estimate the porosity and saturations in a representative layered synthetic reservoir. The results indicate that the seismic AVA and CSEM joint inversion provides better estimation of reservoir saturations than the seismic AVA-only inversion, especially for the parameters in deep layers. The performance of the inversion approach for various levels of noise in observational data was evaluated – reasonable estimates can be obtained with noise levels up to 25%. Sampling efficiency due to the use of multiple chains was also checked and was found to have almost linear scalability.« less

Bayesian inversion of seismic and electromagnetic data for marine gas reservoir characterization using multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Huiying; Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; Bao, Jie; Swiler, Laura

2017-12-01

In this study we developed an efficient Bayesian inversion framework for interpreting marine seismic Amplitude Versus Angle and Controlled-Source Electromagnetic data for marine reservoir characterization. The framework uses a multi-chain Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampler, which is a hybrid of DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis and Adaptive Metropolis samplers. The inversion framework is tested by estimating reservoir-fluid saturations and porosity based on marine seismic and Controlled-Source Electromagnetic data. The multi-chain Markov-chain Monte Carlo is scalable in terms of the number of chains, and is useful for computationally demanding Bayesian model calibration in scientific and engineering problems. As a demonstration, the approach is used to efficiently and accurately estimate the porosity and saturations in a representative layered synthetic reservoir. The results indicate that the seismic Amplitude Versus Angle and Controlled-Source Electromagnetic joint inversion provides better estimation of reservoir saturations than the seismic Amplitude Versus Angle only inversion, especially for the parameters in deep layers. The performance of the inversion approach for various levels of noise in observational data was evaluated - reasonable estimates can be obtained with noise levels up to 25%. Sampling efficiency due to the use of multiple chains was also checked and was found to have almost linear scalability.

GLISTRboost: Combining Multimodal MRI Segmentation, Registration, and Biophysical Tumor Growth Modeling with Gradient Boosting Machines for Glioma Segmentation.

PubMed

Bakas, Spyridon; Zeng, Ke; Sotiras, Aristeidis; Rathore, Saima; Akbari, Hamed; Gaonkar, Bilwaj; Rozycki, Martin; Pati, Sarthak; Davatzikos, Christos

2016-01-01

We present an approach for segmenting low- and high-grade gliomas in multimodal magnetic resonance imaging volumes. The proposed approach is based on a hybrid generative-discriminative model. Firstly, a generative approach based on an Expectation-Maximization framework that incorporates a glioma growth model is used to segment the brain scans into tumor, as well as healthy tissue labels. Secondly, a gradient boosting multi-class classification scheme is used to refine tumor labels based on information from multiple patients. Lastly, a probabilistic Bayesian strategy is employed to further refine and finalize the tumor segmentation based on patient-specific intensity statistics from the multiple modalities. We evaluated our approach in 186 cases during the training phase of the BRAin Tumor Segmentation (BRATS) 2015 challenge and report promising results. During the testing phase, the algorithm was additionally evaluated in 53 unseen cases, achieving the best performance among the competing methods.

ENSURF: multi-model sea level forecast - implementation and validation results for the IBIROOS and Western Mediterranean regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez, B.; Brouwer, R.; Beckers, J.; Paradis, D.; Balseiro, C.; Lyons, K.; Cure, M.; Sotillo, M. G.; Hackett, B.; Verlaan, M.; Fanjul, E. A.

2012-03-01

ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast that makes use of several storm surge or circulation models and near-real time tide gauge data in the region, with the following main goals: 1. providing easy access to existing forecasts, as well as to its performance and model validation, by means of an adequate visualization tool; 2. generation of better forecasts of sea level, including confidence intervals, by means of the Bayesian Model Average technique (BMA). The Bayesian Model Average technique generates an overall forecast probability density function (PDF) by making a weighted average of the individual forecasts PDF's; the weights represent the Bayesian likelihood that a model will give the correct forecast and are continuously updated based on the performance of the models during a recent training period. This implies the technique needs the availability of sea level data from tide gauges in near-real time. The system was implemented for the European Atlantic facade (IBIROOS region) and Western Mediterranean coast based on the MATROOS visualization tool developed by Deltares. Results of validation of the different models and BMA implementation for the main harbours are presented for these regions where this kind of activity is performed for the first time. The system is currently operational at Puertos del Estado and has proved to be useful in the detection of calibration problems in some of the circulation models, in the identification of the systematic differences between baroclinic and barotropic models for sea level forecasts and to demonstrate the feasibility of providing an overall probabilistic forecast, based on the BMA method.

Impact of Bias-Correction Type and Conditional Training on Bayesian Model Averaging over the Northeast United States

Treesearch

Michael J. Erickson; Brian A. Colle; Joseph J. Charney

2012-01-01

The performance of a multimodel ensemble over the northeast United States is evaluated before and after applying bias correction and Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The 13-member Stony Brook University (SBU) ensemble at 0000 UTC is combined with the 21-member National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system at 2100 UTC....

A Bayesian pick-the-winner design in a randomized phase II clinical trial.

PubMed

Chen, Dung-Tsa; Huang, Po-Yu; Lin, Hui-Yi; Chiappori, Alberto A; Gabrilovich, Dmitry I; Haura, Eric B; Antonia, Scott J; Gray, Jhanelle E

2017-10-24

Many phase II clinical trials evaluate unique experimental drugs/combinations through multi-arm design to expedite the screening process (early termination of ineffective drugs) and to identify the most effective drug (pick the winner) to warrant a phase III trial. Various statistical approaches have been developed for the pick-the-winner design but have been criticized for lack of objective comparison among the drug agents. We developed a Bayesian pick-the-winner design by integrating a Bayesian posterior probability with Simon two-stage design in a randomized two-arm clinical trial. The Bayesian posterior probability, as the rule to pick the winner, is defined as probability of the response rate in one arm higher than in the other arm. The posterior probability aims to determine the winner when both arms pass the second stage of the Simon two-stage design. When both arms are competitive (i.e., both passing the second stage), the Bayesian posterior probability performs better to correctly identify the winner compared with the Fisher exact test in the simulation study. In comparison to a standard two-arm randomized design, the Bayesian pick-the-winner design has a higher power to determine a clear winner. In application to two studies, the approach is able to perform statistical comparison of two treatment arms and provides a winner probability (Bayesian posterior probability) to statistically justify the winning arm. We developed an integrated design that utilizes Bayesian posterior probability, Simon two-stage design, and randomization into a unique setting. It gives objective comparisons between the arms to determine the winner.

MODEL-FREE MULTI-PROBE LENSING RECONSTRUCTION OF CLUSTER MASS PROFILES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Umetsu, Keiichi

2013-05-20

Lens magnification by galaxy clusters induces characteristic spatial variations in the number counts of background sources, amplifying their observed fluxes and expanding the area of sky, the net effect of which, known as magnification bias, depends on the intrinsic faint-end slope of the source luminosity function. The bias is strongly negative for red galaxies, dominated by the geometric area distortion, whereas it is mildly positive for blue galaxies, enhancing the blue counts toward the cluster center. We generalize the Bayesian approach of Umetsu et al. for reconstructing projected cluster mass profiles, by incorporating multiple populations of background sources for magnification-biasmore » measurements and combining them with complementary lens-distortion measurements, effectively breaking the mass-sheet degeneracy and improving the statistical precision of cluster mass measurements. The approach can be further extended to include strong-lensing projected mass estimates, thus allowing for non-parametric absolute mass determinations in both the weak and strong regimes. We apply this method to our recent CLASH lensing measurements of MACS J1206.2-0847, and demonstrate how combining multi-probe lensing constraints can improve the reconstruction of cluster mass profiles. This method will also be useful for a stacked lensing analysis, combining all lensing-related effects in the cluster regime, for a definitive determination of the averaged mass profile.« less

A robust multi-kernel change detection framework for detecting leaf beetle defoliation using Landsat 7 ETM+ data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anees, Asim; Aryal, Jagannath; O'Reilly, Małgorzata M.; Gale, Timothy J.; Wardlaw, Tim

2016-12-01

A robust non-parametric framework, based on multiple Radial Basic Function (RBF) kernels, is proposed in this study, for detecting land/forest cover changes using Landsat 7 ETM+ images. One of the widely used frameworks is to find change vectors (difference image) and use a supervised classifier to differentiate between change and no-change. The Bayesian Classifiers e.g. Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC), Naive Bayes (NB), are widely used probabilistic classifiers which assume parametric models, e.g. Gaussian function, for the class conditional distributions. However, their performance can be limited if the data set deviates from the assumed model. The proposed framework exploits the useful properties of Least Squares Probabilistic Classifier (LSPC) formulation i.e. non-parametric and probabilistic nature, to model class posterior probabilities of the difference image using a linear combination of a large number of Gaussian kernels. To this end, a simple technique, based on 10-fold cross-validation is also proposed for tuning model parameters automatically instead of selecting a (possibly) suboptimal combination from pre-specified lists of values. The proposed framework has been tested and compared with Support Vector Machine (SVM) and NB for detection of defoliation, caused by leaf beetles (Paropsisterna spp.) in Eucalyptus nitens and Eucalyptus globulus plantations of two test areas, in Tasmania, Australia, using raw bands and band combination indices of Landsat 7 ETM+. It was observed that due to multi-kernel non-parametric formulation and probabilistic nature, the LSPC outperforms parametric NB with Gaussian assumption in change detection framework, with Overall Accuracy (OA) ranging from 93.6% (κ = 0.87) to 97.4% (κ = 0.94) against 85.3% (κ = 0.69) to 93.4% (κ = 0.85), and is more robust to changing data distributions. Its performance was comparable to SVM, with added advantages of being probabilistic and capable of handling multi-class problems naturally with its original formulation.

A Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to estimate disease prevalence in hard-to-reach populations: hepatitis C in New York City.

PubMed

Tan, Sarah; Makela, Susanna; Heller, Daliah; Konty, Kevin; Balter, Sharon; Zheng, Tian; Stark, James H

2018-06-01

Existing methods to estimate the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C (HCV) in New York City (NYC) are limited in scope and fail to assess hard-to-reach subpopulations with highest risk such as injecting drug users (IDUs). To address these limitations, we employ a Bayesian multi-parameter evidence synthesis model to systematically combine multiple sources of data, account for bias in certain data sources, and provide unbiased HCV prevalence estimates with associated uncertainty. Our approach improves on previous estimates by explicitly accounting for injecting drug use and including data from high-risk subpopulations such as the incarcerated, and is more inclusive, utilizing ten NYC data sources. In addition, we derive two new equations to allow age at first injecting drug use data for former and current IDUs to be incorporated into the Bayesian evidence synthesis, a first for this type of model. Our estimated overall HCV prevalence as of 2012 among NYC adults aged 20-59 years is 2.78% (95% CI 2.61-2.94%), which represents between 124,900 and 140,000 chronic HCV cases. These estimates suggest that HCV prevalence in NYC is higher than previously indicated from household surveys (2.2%) and the surveillance system (2.37%), and that HCV transmission is increasing among young injecting adults in NYC. An ancillary benefit from our results is an estimate of current IDUs aged 20-59 in NYC: 0.58% or 27,600 individuals. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of a predictive Bayesian model to environmental accounting.

PubMed

Anex, R P; Englehardt, J D

2001-03-30

Environmental accounting techniques are intended to capture important environmental costs and benefits that are often overlooked in standard accounting practices. Environmental accounting methods themselves often ignore or inadequately represent large but highly uncertain environmental costs and costs conditioned by specific prior events. Use of a predictive Bayesian model is demonstrated for the assessment of such highly uncertain environmental and contingent costs. The predictive Bayesian approach presented generates probability distributions for the quantity of interest (rather than parameters thereof). A spreadsheet implementation of a previously proposed predictive Bayesian model, extended to represent contingent costs, is described and used to evaluate whether a firm should undertake an accelerated phase-out of its PCB containing transformers. Variability and uncertainty (due to lack of information) in transformer accident frequency and severity are assessed simultaneously using a combination of historical accident data, engineering model-based cost estimates, and subjective judgement. Model results are compared using several different risk measures. Use of the model for incorporation of environmental risk management into a company's overall risk management strategy is discussed.

Bayesian analysis of multi-state data with individual covariates for estimating genetic effects on demography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Urbanek, Richard P.

2012-01-01

Inbreeding depression is frequently a concern of managers interested in restoring endangered species. Decisions to reduce the potential for inbreeding depression by balancing genotypic contributions to reintroduced populations may exact a cost on long-term demographic performance of the population if those decisions result in reduced numbers of animals released and/or restriction of particularly successful genotypes (i.e., heritable traits of particular family lines). As part of an effort to restore a migratory flock of Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) to eastern North America using the offspring of captive breeders, we obtained a unique dataset which includes post-release mark-recapture data, as well as the pedigree of each released individual. We developed a Bayesian formulation of a multi-state model to analyze radio-telemetry, band-resight, and dead recovery data on reintroduced individuals, in order to track survival and breeding state transitions. We used studbook-based individual covariates to examine the comparative evidence for and degree of effects of inbreeding, genotype, and genotype quality on post-release survival of reintroduced individuals. We demonstrate implementation of the Bayesian multi-state model, which allows for the integration of imperfect detection, multiple data types, random effects, and individual- and time-dependent covariates. Our results provide only weak evidence for an effect of the quality of an individual's genotype in captivity on post-release survival as well as for an effect of inbreeding on post-release survival. We plan to integrate our results into a decision-analytic modeling framework that can explicitly examine tradeoffs between the effects of inbreeding and the effects of genotype and demographic stochasticity on population establishment.

Calibration and combination of dynamical seasonal forecasts to enhance the value of predicted probabilities for managing risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutton, John A.; James, Richard P.; Ross, Jeremy D.

2013-06-01

Seasonal probability forecasts produced with numerical dynamics on supercomputers offer great potential value in managing risk and opportunity created by seasonal variability. The skill and reliability of contemporary forecast systems can be increased by calibration methods that use the historical performance of the forecast system to improve the ongoing real-time forecasts. Two calibration methods are applied to seasonal surface temperature forecasts of the US National Weather Service, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, and to a World Climate Service multi-model ensemble created by combining those two forecasts with Bayesian methods. As expected, the multi-model is somewhat more skillful and more reliable than the original models taken alone. The potential value of the multimodel in decision making is illustrated with the profits achieved in simulated trading of a weather derivative. In addition to examining the seasonal models, the article demonstrates that calibrated probability forecasts of weekly average temperatures for leads of 2-4 weeks are also skillful and reliable. The conversion of ensemble forecasts into probability distributions of impact variables is illustrated with degree days derived from the temperature forecasts. Some issues related to loss of stationarity owing to long-term warming are considered. The main conclusion of the article is that properly calibrated probabilistic forecasts possess sufficient skill and reliability to contribute to effective decisions in government and business activities that are sensitive to intraseasonal and seasonal climate variability.

Evaluation of a neutron spectrum from Bonner spheres measurements using a Bayesian parameter estimation combined with the traditional unfolding methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazrou, H.; Bezoubiri, F.

2018-07-01

In this work, a new program developed under MATLAB environment and supported by the Bayesian software WinBUGS has been combined to the traditional unfolding codes namely MAXED and GRAVEL, to evaluate a neutron spectrum from the Bonner spheres measured counts obtained around a shielded 241AmBe based-neutron irradiator located at a Secondary Standards Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL) at CRNA. In the first step, the results obtained by the standalone Bayesian program, using a parametric neutron spectrum model based on a linear superposition of three components namely: a thermal-Maxwellian distribution, an epithermal (1/E behavior) and a kind of a Watt fission and Evaporation models to represent the fast component, were compared to those issued from MAXED and GRAVEL assuming a Monte Carlo default spectrum. Through the selection of new upper limits for some free parameters, taking into account the physical characteristics of the irradiation source, of both considered models, good agreement was obtained for investigated integral quantities i.e. fluence rate and ambient dose equivalent rate compared to MAXED and GRAVEL results. The difference was generally below 4% for investigated parameters suggesting, thereby, the reliability of the proposed models. In the second step, the Bayesian results obtained from the previous calculations were used, as initial guess spectra, for the traditional unfolding codes, MAXED and GRAVEL to derive the solution spectra. Here again the results were in very good agreement, confirming the stability of the Bayesian solution.

Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal Reservoir Inflow Forecast using Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhopadhyay, S.; Arumugam, S.

2017-12-01

Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) (15-90 days) streamflow forecasting is an emerging area of research that provides seamless information for reservoir operation from weather time scales to seasonal time scales. From an operational perspective, sub-seasonal inflow forecasts are highly valuable as these enable water managers to decide short-term releases (15-30 days), while holding water for seasonal needs (e.g., irrigation and municipal supply) and to meet end-of-the-season target storage at a desired level. We propose a Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model (BHHMM) to develop S2S inflow forecasts for the Tennessee Valley Area (TVA) reservoir system. Here, the hidden states are predicted by relevant indices that influence the inflows at S2S time scale. The hidden Markov model also captures the both spatial and temporal hierarchy in predictors that operate at S2S time scale with model parameters being estimated as a posterior distribution using a Bayesian framework. We present our work in two steps, namely single site model and multi-site model. For proof of concept, we consider inflows to Douglas Dam, Tennessee, in the single site model. For multisite model we consider reservoirs in the upper Tennessee valley. Streamflow forecasts are issued and updated continuously every day at S2S time scale. We considered precipitation forecasts obtained from NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) GCM as predictors for developing S2S streamflow forecasts along with relevant indices for predicting hidden states. Spatial dependence of the inflow series of reservoirs are also preserved in the multi-site model. To circumvent the non-normality of the data, we consider the HMM in a Generalized Linear Model setting. Skill of the proposed approach is tested using split sample validation against a traditional multi-site canonical correlation model developed using the same set of predictors. From the posterior distribution of the inflow forecasts, we also highlight different system behavior under varied global and local scale climatic influences from the developed BHMM.

Reparametrization-based estimation of genetic parameters in multi-trait animal model using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation.

PubMed

Mathew, Boby; Holand, Anna Marie; Koistinen, Petri; Léon, Jens; Sillanpää, Mikko J

2016-02-01

A novel reparametrization-based INLA approach as a fast alternative to MCMC for the Bayesian estimation of genetic parameters in multivariate animal model is presented. Multi-trait genetic parameter estimation is a relevant topic in animal and plant breeding programs because multi-trait analysis can take into account the genetic correlation between different traits and that significantly improves the accuracy of the genetic parameter estimates. Generally, multi-trait analysis is computationally demanding and requires initial estimates of genetic and residual correlations among the traits, while those are difficult to obtain. In this study, we illustrate how to reparametrize covariance matrices of a multivariate animal model/animal models using modified Cholesky decompositions. This reparametrization-based approach is used in the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) methodology to estimate genetic parameters of multivariate animal model. Immediate benefits are: (1) to avoid difficulties of finding good starting values for analysis which can be a problem, for example in Restricted Maximum Likelihood (REML); (2) Bayesian estimation of (co)variance components using INLA is faster to execute than using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) especially when realized relationship matrices are dense. The slight drawback is that priors for covariance matrices are assigned for elements of the Cholesky factor but not directly to the covariance matrix elements as in MCMC. Additionally, we illustrate the concordance of the INLA results with the traditional methods like MCMC and REML approaches. We also present results obtained from simulated data sets with replicates and field data in rice.

Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective.

PubMed

Sperotto, Anna; Molina, José-Luis; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2017-11-01

The evaluation and management of climate change impacts on natural and human systems required the adoption of a multi-risk perspective in which the effect of multiple stressors, processes and interconnections are simultaneously modelled. Despite Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular integrated modelling tools to deal with uncertain and complex domains, their application in the context of climate change still represent a limited explored field. The paper, drawing on the review of existing applications in the field of environmental management, discusses the potential and limitation of applying BNs to improve current climate change risk assessment procedures. Main potentials include the advantage to consider multiple stressors and endpoints in the same framework, their flexibility in dealing and communicate with the uncertainty of climate projections and the opportunity to perform scenario analysis. Some limitations (i.e. representation of temporal and spatial dynamics, quantitative validation), however, should be overcome to boost BNs use in climate change impacts assessment and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-variate joint PDF for non-Gaussianities: exact formulation and generic approximations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Verde, Licia; Jimenez, Raul; Alvarez-Gaume, Luis

2013-06-01

We provide an exact expression for the multi-variate joint probability distribution function of non-Gaussian fields primordially arising from local transformations of a Gaussian field. This kind of non-Gaussianity is generated in many models of inflation. We apply our expression to the non-Gaussianity estimation from Cosmic Microwave Background maps and the halo mass function where we obtain analytical expressions. We also provide analytic approximations and their range of validity. For the Cosmic Microwave Background we give a fast way to compute the PDF which is valid up to more than 7σ for f{sub NL} values (both true and sampled) not ruledmore » out by current observations, which consists of expressing the PDF as a combination of bispectrum and trispectrum of the temperature maps. The resulting expression is valid for any kind of non-Gaussianity and is not limited to the local type. The above results may serve as the basis for a fully Bayesian analysis of the non-Gaussianity parameter.« less

A Bayesian Method for Evaluating and Discovering Disease Loci Associations

PubMed Central

Jiang, Xia; Barmada, M. Michael; Cooper, Gregory F.; Becich, Michael J.

2011-01-01

Background A genome-wide association study (GWAS) typically involves examining representative SNPs in individuals from some population. A GWAS data set can concern a million SNPs and may soon concern billions. Researchers investigate the association of each SNP individually with a disease, and it is becoming increasingly commonplace to also analyze multi-SNP associations. Techniques for handling so many hypotheses include the Bonferroni correction and recently developed Bayesian methods. These methods can encounter problems. Most importantly, they are not applicable to a complex multi-locus hypothesis which has several competing hypotheses rather than only a null hypothesis. A method that computes the posterior probability of complex hypotheses is a pressing need. Methodology/Findings We introduce the Bayesian network posterior probability (BNPP) method which addresses the difficulties. The method represents the relationship between a disease and SNPs using a directed acyclic graph (DAG) model, and computes the likelihood of such models using a Bayesian network scoring criterion. The posterior probability of a hypothesis is computed based on the likelihoods of all competing hypotheses. The BNPP can not only be used to evaluate a hypothesis that has previously been discovered or suspected, but also to discover new disease loci associations. The results of experiments using simulated and real data sets are presented. Our results concerning simulated data sets indicate that the BNPP exhibits both better evaluation and discovery performance than does a p-value based method. For the real data sets, previous findings in the literature are confirmed and additional findings are found. Conclusions/Significance We conclude that the BNPP resolves a pressing problem by providing a way to compute the posterior probability of complex multi-locus hypotheses. A researcher can use the BNPP to determine the expected utility of investigating a hypothesis further. Furthermore, we conclude that the BNPP is a promising method for discovering disease loci associations. PMID:21853025

Predicting site locations for biomass using facilities with Bayesian methods

Treesearch

Timothy M. Young; James H. Perdue; Xia Huang

2017-01-01

Logistic regression models combined with Bayesian inference were developed to predict locations and quantify factors that influence the siting of biomass-using facilities that use woody biomass in the Southeastern United States. Predictions were developed for two groups of mills, one representing larger capacity mills similar to pulp and paper mills (Group II...

Seeing Like a Geologist: Bayesian Use of Expert Categories in Location Memory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holden, Mark P.; Newcombe, Nora S.; Resnick, Ilyse; Shipley, Thomas F.

2016-01-01

Memory for spatial location is typically biased, with errors trending toward the center of a surrounding region. According to the category adjustment model (CAM), this bias reflects the optimal, Bayesian combination of fine-grained and categorical representations of a location. However, there is disagreement about whether categories are malleable.…

Posterior Predictive Bayesian Phylogenetic Model Selection

PubMed Central

Lewis, Paul O.; Xie, Wangang; Chen, Ming-Hui; Fan, Yu; Kuo, Lynn

2014-01-01

We present two distinctly different posterior predictive approaches to Bayesian phylogenetic model selection and illustrate these methods using examples from green algal protein-coding cpDNA sequences and flowering plant rDNA sequences. The Gelfand–Ghosh (GG) approach allows dissection of an overall measure of model fit into components due to posterior predictive variance (GGp) and goodness-of-fit (GGg), which distinguishes this method from the posterior predictive P-value approach. The conditional predictive ordinate (CPO) method provides a site-specific measure of model fit useful for exploratory analyses and can be combined over sites yielding the log pseudomarginal likelihood (LPML) which is useful as an overall measure of model fit. CPO provides a useful cross-validation approach that is computationally efficient, requiring only a sample from the posterior distribution (no additional simulation is required). Both GG and CPO add new perspectives to Bayesian phylogenetic model selection based on the predictive abilities of models and complement the perspective provided by the marginal likelihood (including Bayes Factor comparisons) based solely on the fit of competing models to observed data. [Bayesian; conditional predictive ordinate; CPO; L-measure; LPML; model selection; phylogenetics; posterior predictive.] PMID:24193892

Multilevel Sequential2 Monte Carlo for Bayesian inverse problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latz, Jonas; Papaioannou, Iason; Ullmann, Elisabeth

2018-09-01

The identification of parameters in mathematical models using noisy observations is a common task in uncertainty quantification. We employ the framework of Bayesian inversion: we combine monitoring and observational data with prior information to estimate the posterior distribution of a parameter. Specifically, we are interested in the distribution of a diffusion coefficient of an elliptic PDE. In this setting, the sample space is high-dimensional, and each sample of the PDE solution is expensive. To address these issues we propose and analyse a novel Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler for the approximation of the posterior distribution. Classical, single-level SMC constructs a sequence of measures, starting with the prior distribution, and finishing with the posterior distribution. The intermediate measures arise from a tempering of the likelihood, or, equivalently, a rescaling of the noise. The resolution of the PDE discretisation is fixed. In contrast, our estimator employs a hierarchy of PDE discretisations to decrease the computational cost. We construct a sequence of intermediate measures by decreasing the temperature or by increasing the discretisation level at the same time. This idea builds on and generalises the multi-resolution sampler proposed in P.S. Koutsourelakis (2009) [33] where a bridging scheme is used to transfer samples from coarse to fine discretisation levels. Importantly, our choice between tempering and bridging is fully adaptive. We present numerical experiments in 2D space, comparing our estimator to single-level SMC and the multi-resolution sampler.

Multi-Model Combination techniques for Hydrological Forecasting: Application to Distributed Model Intercomparison Project Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ajami, N K; Duan, Q; Gao, X

2005-04-11

This paper examines several multi-model combination techniques: the Simple Multi-model Average (SMA), the Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Modified Multi-Model Super Ensemble (M3SE) and the Weighted Average Method (WAM). These model combination techniques were evaluated using the results from the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP), an international project sponsored by the National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). All of the multi-model combination results were obtained using uncalibrated DMIP model outputs and were compared against the best uncalibrated as well as the best calibrated individual model results. The purpose of this study is to understand how different combination techniquesmore » affect the skill levels of the multi-model predictions. This study revealed that the multi-model predictions obtained from uncalibrated single model predictions are generally better than any single member model predictions, even the best calibrated single model predictions. Furthermore, more sophisticated multi-model combination techniques that incorporated bias correction steps work better than simple multi-model average predictions or multi-model predictions without bias correction.« less

Variational dynamic background model for keyword spotting in handwritten documents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Gaurav; Wshah, Safwan; Govindaraju, Venu

2013-12-01

We propose a bayesian framework for keyword spotting in handwritten documents. This work is an extension to our previous work where we proposed dynamic background model, DBM for keyword spotting that takes into account the local character level scores and global word level scores to learn a logistic regression classifier to separate keywords from non-keywords. In this work, we add a bayesian layer on top of the DBM called the variational dynamic background model, VDBM. The logistic regression classifier uses the sigmoid function to separate keywords from non-keywords. The sigmoid function being neither convex nor concave, exact inference of VDBM becomes intractable. An expectation maximization step is proposed to do approximate inference. The advantage of VDBM over the DBM is multi-fold. Firstly, being bayesian, it prevents over-fitting of data. Secondly, it provides better modeling of data and an improved prediction of unseen data. VDBM is evaluated on the IAM dataset and the results prove that it outperforms our prior work and other state of the art line based word spotting system.

Cortical Hierarchies Perform Bayesian Causal Inference in Multisensory Perception

PubMed Central

Rohe, Tim; Noppeney, Uta

2015-01-01

To form a veridical percept of the environment, the brain needs to integrate sensory signals from a common source but segregate those from independent sources. Thus, perception inherently relies on solving the “causal inference problem.” Behaviorally, humans solve this problem optimally as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference; yet, the underlying neural mechanisms are unexplored. Combining psychophysics, Bayesian modeling, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), and multivariate decoding in an audiovisual spatial localization task, we demonstrate that Bayesian Causal Inference is performed by a hierarchy of multisensory processes in the human brain. At the bottom of the hierarchy, in auditory and visual areas, location is represented on the basis that the two signals are generated by independent sources (= segregation). At the next stage, in posterior intraparietal sulcus, location is estimated under the assumption that the two signals are from a common source (= forced fusion). Only at the top of the hierarchy, in anterior intraparietal sulcus, the uncertainty about the causal structure of the world is taken into account and sensory signals are combined as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference. Characterizing the computational operations of signal interactions reveals the hierarchical nature of multisensory perception in human neocortex. It unravels how the brain accomplishes Bayesian Causal Inference, a statistical computation fundamental for perception and cognition. Our results demonstrate how the brain combines information in the face of uncertainty about the underlying causal structure of the world. PMID:25710328

Probabilistic Approaches for Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Structures and Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwag, Shinyoung

Performance assessment of structures, systems, and components for multi-hazard scenarios has received significant attention in recent years. However, the concept of multi-hazard analysis is quite broad in nature and the focus of existing literature varies across a wide range of problems. In some cases, such studies focus on hazards that either occur simultaneously or are closely correlated with each other. For example, seismically induced flooding or seismically induced fires. In other cases, multi-hazard studies relate to hazards that are not dependent or correlated but have strong likelihood of occurrence at different times during the lifetime of a structure. The current approaches for risk assessment need enhancement to account for multi-hazard risks. It must be able to account for uncertainty propagation in a systems-level analysis, consider correlation among events or failure modes, and allow integration of newly available information from continually evolving simulation models, experimental observations, and field measurements. This dissertation presents a detailed study that proposes enhancements by incorporating Bayesian networks and Bayesian updating within a performance-based probabilistic framework. The performance-based framework allows propagation of risk as well as uncertainties in the risk estimates within a systems analysis. Unlike conventional risk assessment techniques such as a fault-tree analysis, a Bayesian network can account for statistical dependencies and correlations among events/hazards. The proposed approach is extended to develop a risk-informed framework for quantitative validation and verification of high fidelity system-level simulation tools. Validation of such simulations can be quite formidable within the context of a multi-hazard risk assessment in nuclear power plants. The efficiency of this approach lies in identification of critical events, components, and systems that contribute to the overall risk. Validation of any event or component on the critical path is relatively more important in a risk-informed environment. Significance of multi-hazard risk is also illustrated for uncorrelated hazards of earthquakes and high winds which may result in competing design objectives. It is also illustrated that the number of computationally intensive nonlinear simulations needed in performance-based risk assessment for external hazards can be significantly reduced by using the power of Bayesian updating in conjunction with the concept of equivalent limit-state.

Planck intermediate results. XVI. Profile likelihoods for cosmological parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Planck Collaboration; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A. J.; Barreiro, R. B.; Bartlett, J. G.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bernard, J.-P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bobin, J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bond, J. R.; Bouchet, F. R.; Burigana, C.; Cardoso, J.-F.; Catalano, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, H. C.; Christensen, P. R.; Clements, D. L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L. P. L.; Couchot, F.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R. D.; Davis, R. J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J. M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Doré, O.; Douspis, M.; Dupac, X.; Enßlin, T. A.; Eriksen, H. K.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Franceschi, E.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K. M.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Hansen, F. K.; Harrison, D. L.; Henrot-Versillé, S.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S. R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W. A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K. M.; Jaffe, A. H.; Jaffe, T. R.; Jones, W. C.; Juvela, M.; Keihänen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T. S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Lamarre, J.-M.; Lasenby, A.; Lawrence, C. R.; Leonardi, R.; Liddle, A.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P. B.; Linden-Vørnle, M.; López-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P. M.; Macías-Pérez, J. F.; Maffei, B.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Maris, M.; Martin, P. G.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Massardi, M.; Matarrese, S.; Mazzotta, P.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschênes, M.-A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J. A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oxborrow, C. A.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski∗, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Popa, L.; Pratt, G. W.; Puget, J.-L.; Rachen, J. P.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Ricciardi, S.; Riller, T.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Roudier, G.; Rouillé d'Orfeuil, B.; Rubiño-Martín, J. A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Spencer, L. D.; Spinelli, M.; Starck, J.-L.; Sureau, F.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.-S.; Sygnet, J.-F.; Tauber, J. A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L. A.; Wandelt, B. D.; White, M.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

2014-06-01

We explore the 2013 Planck likelihood function with a high-precision multi-dimensional minimizer (Minuit). This allows a refinement of the ΛCDM best-fit solution with respect to previously-released results, and the construction of frequentist confidence intervals using profile likelihoods. The agreement with the cosmological results from the Bayesian framework is excellent, demonstrating the robustness of the Planck results to the statistical methodology. We investigate the inclusion of neutrino masses, where more significant differences may appear due to the non-Gaussian nature of the posterior mass distribution. By applying the Feldman-Cousins prescription, we again obtain results very similar to those of the Bayesian methodology. However, the profile-likelihood analysis of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) combination (Planck+WP+highL) reveals a minimum well within the unphysical negative-mass region. We show that inclusion of the Planck CMB-lensing information regularizes this issue, and provide a robust frequentist upper limit ∑ mν ≤ 0.26 eV (95% confidence) from the CMB+lensing+BAO data combination.

Online Variational Bayesian Filtering-Based Mobile Target Tracking in Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Zhou, Bingpeng; Chen, Qingchun; Li, Tiffany Jing; Xiao, Pei

2014-01-01

The received signal strength (RSS)-based online tracking for a mobile node in wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is investigated in this paper. Firstly, a multi-layer dynamic Bayesian network (MDBN) is introduced to characterize the target mobility with either directional or undirected movement. In particular, it is proposed to employ the Wishart distribution to approximate the time-varying RSS measurement precision's randomness due to the target movement. It is shown that the proposed MDBN offers a more general analysis model via incorporating the underlying statistical information of both the target movement and observations, which can be utilized to improve the online tracking capability by exploiting the Bayesian statistics. Secondly, based on the MDBN model, a mean-field variational Bayesian filtering (VBF) algorithm is developed to realize the online tracking of a mobile target in the presence of nonlinear observations and time-varying RSS precision, wherein the traditional Bayesian filtering scheme cannot be directly employed. Thirdly, a joint optimization between the real-time velocity and its prior expectation is proposed to enable online velocity tracking in the proposed online tacking scheme. Finally, the associated Bayesian Cramer–Rao Lower Bound (BCRLB) analysis and numerical simulations are conducted. Our analysis unveils that, by exploiting the potential state information via the general MDBN model, the proposed VBF algorithm provides a promising solution to the online tracking of a mobile node in WSNs. In addition, it is shown that the final tracking accuracy linearly scales with its expectation when the RSS measurement precision is time-varying. PMID:25393784

Bayesian inversion of seismic and electromagnetic data for marine gas reservoir characterization using multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling

DOE PAGES

Ren, Huiying; Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan; ...

2017-10-17

In this paper we developed an efficient Bayesian inversion framework for interpreting marine seismic Amplitude Versus Angle and Controlled-Source Electromagnetic data for marine reservoir characterization. The framework uses a multi-chain Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampler, which is a hybrid of DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis and Adaptive Metropolis samplers. The inversion framework is tested by estimating reservoir-fluid saturations and porosity based on marine seismic and Controlled-Source Electromagnetic data. The multi-chain Markov-chain Monte Carlo is scalable in terms of the number of chains, and is useful for computationally demanding Bayesian model calibration in scientific and engineering problems. As a demonstration, the approach ismore » used to efficiently and accurately estimate the porosity and saturations in a representative layered synthetic reservoir. The results indicate that the seismic Amplitude Versus Angle and Controlled-Source Electromagnetic joint inversion provides better estimation of reservoir saturations than the seismic Amplitude Versus Angle only inversion, especially for the parameters in deep layers. The performance of the inversion approach for various levels of noise in observational data was evaluated — reasonable estimates can be obtained with noise levels up to 25%. Sampling efficiency due to the use of multiple chains was also checked and was found to have almost linear scalability.« less

Bayesian inversion of seismic and electromagnetic data for marine gas reservoir characterization using multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ren, Huiying; Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan

In this paper we developed an efficient Bayesian inversion framework for interpreting marine seismic Amplitude Versus Angle and Controlled-Source Electromagnetic data for marine reservoir characterization. The framework uses a multi-chain Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampler, which is a hybrid of DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis and Adaptive Metropolis samplers. The inversion framework is tested by estimating reservoir-fluid saturations and porosity based on marine seismic and Controlled-Source Electromagnetic data. The multi-chain Markov-chain Monte Carlo is scalable in terms of the number of chains, and is useful for computationally demanding Bayesian model calibration in scientific and engineering problems. As a demonstration, the approach ismore » used to efficiently and accurately estimate the porosity and saturations in a representative layered synthetic reservoir. The results indicate that the seismic Amplitude Versus Angle and Controlled-Source Electromagnetic joint inversion provides better estimation of reservoir saturations than the seismic Amplitude Versus Angle only inversion, especially for the parameters in deep layers. The performance of the inversion approach for various levels of noise in observational data was evaluated — reasonable estimates can be obtained with noise levels up to 25%. Sampling efficiency due to the use of multiple chains was also checked and was found to have almost linear scalability.« less

Detection of cylinder unbalance from Bayesian inference combining cylinder pressure and vibration block measurement in a Diesel engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Emmanuel; Antoni, Jerome; Grondin, Olivier

2009-12-01

In the automotive industry, the necessary reduction of pollutant emission for new Diesel engines requires the control of combustion events. This control is efficient provided combustion parameters such as combustion occurrence and combustion energy are relevant. Combustion parameters are traditionally measured from cylinder pressure sensors. However this kind of sensor is expensive and has a limited lifetime. Thus this paper proposes to use only one cylinder pressure on a multi-cylinder engine and to extract combustion parameters from the other cylinders with low cost knock sensors. Knock sensors measure the vibration circulating on the engine block, hence they do not all contain the information on the combustion processes, but they are also contaminated by other mechanical noises that disorder the signal. The question is how to combine the information coming from one cylinder pressure and knock sensors to obtain the most relevant combustion parameters in all engine cylinders. In this paper, the issue is addressed trough the Bayesian inference formalism. In that cylinder where a cylinder pressure sensor is mounted, combustion parameters will be measured directly. In the other cylinders, they will be measured indirectly from Bayesian inference. Experimental results obtained on a four cylinder Diesel engine demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm toward that purpose.

A Bayesian analysis of HAT-P-7b using the EXONEST algorithm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Placek, Ben; Knuth, Kevin H.

2015-01-13

The study of exoplanets (planets orbiting other stars) is revolutionizing the way we view our universe. High-precision photometric data provided by the Kepler Space Telescope (Kepler) enables not only the detection of such planets, but also their characterization. This presents a unique opportunity to apply Bayesian methods to better characterize the multitude of previously confirmed exoplanets. This paper focuses on applying the EXONEST algorithm to characterize the transiting short-period-hot-Jupiter, HAT-P-7b (also referred to as Kepler-2b). EXONEST evaluates a suite of exoplanet photometric models by applying Bayesian Model Selection, which is implemented with the MultiNest algorithm. These models take into accountmore » planetary effects, such as reflected light and thermal emissions, as well as the effect of the planetary motion on the host star, such as Doppler beaming, or boosting, of light from the reflex motion of the host star, and photometric variations due to the planet-induced ellipsoidal shape of the host star. By calculating model evidences, one can determine which model best describes the observed data, thus identifying which effects dominate the planetary system. Presented are parameter estimates and model evidences for HAT-P-7b.« less

A Bayesian Method for Evaluating Passing Scores: The PPoP Curve

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wainer, Howard; Wang, X. A.; Skorupski, William P.; Bradlow, Eric T.

2005-01-01

In this note, we demonstrate an interesting use of the posterior distributions (and corresponding posterior samples of proficiency) that are yielded by fitting a fully Bayesian test scoring model to a complex assessment. Specifically, we examine the efficacy of the test in combination with the specific passing score that was chosen through expert…

A conceptual model for site-level ecology of the giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) in the Sacramento Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halstead, Brian J.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Casazza, Michael L.; Hansen, Eric C.; Scherer, Rick D.; Patterson, Laura C.

2015-08-14

Bayesian networks further provide a clear visual display of the model that facilitates understanding among various stakeholders (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Empirical data and expert judgment can be combined, as continuous or categorical variables, to update knowledge about the system (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Importantly, Bayesian network models allow inference from causes to consequences, but also from consequences to causes, so that data can inform the states of nodes (values of different random variables) in either direction (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Because they can incorporate both decision nodes that represent management actions and utility nodes that quantify the costs and benefits of outcomes, Bayesian networks are ideally suited to risk analysis and adaptive management (Nyberg and others, 2006; Howes and others, 2010). Thus, Bayesian network models are useful in situations where empirical data are not available, such as questions concerning the responses of giant gartersnakes to management.

Uncertainty plus prior equals rational bias: an intuitive Bayesian probability weighting function.

PubMed

Fennell, John; Baddeley, Roland

2012-10-01

Empirical research has shown that when making choices based on probabilistic options, people behave as if they overestimate small probabilities, underestimate large probabilities, and treat positive and negative outcomes differently. These distortions have been modeled using a nonlinear probability weighting function, which is found in several nonexpected utility theories, including rank-dependent models and prospect theory; here, we propose a Bayesian approach to the probability weighting function and, with it, a psychological rationale. In the real world, uncertainty is ubiquitous and, accordingly, the optimal strategy is to combine probability statements with prior information using Bayes' rule. First, we show that any reasonable prior on probabilities leads to 2 of the observed effects; overweighting of low probabilities and underweighting of high probabilities. We then investigate 2 plausible kinds of priors: informative priors based on previous experience and uninformative priors of ignorance. Individually, these priors potentially lead to large problems of bias and inefficiency, respectively; however, when combined using Bayesian model comparison methods, both forms of prior can be applied adaptively, gaining the efficiency of empirical priors and the robustness of ignorance priors. We illustrate this for the simple case of generic good and bad options, using Internet blogs to estimate the relevant priors of inference. Given this combined ignorant/informative prior, the Bayesian probability weighting function is not only robust and efficient but also matches all of the major characteristics of the distortions found in empirical research. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Bayesian analysis of spatially-dependent functional responses with spatially-dependent multi-dimensional functional predictors

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recent advances in technology have led to the collection of high-dimensional data not previously encountered in many scientific environments. As a result, scientists are often faced with the challenging task of including these high-dimensional data into statistical models. For example, data from sen...

Can I order a burger at rnacdonalds.com? Visual similarity effects of multi-letter combinations at the early stages of word recognition.

PubMed

Marcet, Ana; Perea, Manuel

2018-05-01

Previous research has shown that early in the word recognition process, there is some degree of uncertainty concerning letter identity and letter position. Here, we examined whether this uncertainty also extends to the mapping of letter features onto letters, as predicted by the Bayesian Reader (Norris & Kinoshita, 2012). Indeed, anecdotal evidence suggests that nonwords containing multi-letter homoglyphs (e.g., rn→m), such as docurnent, can be confusable with their base word. We conducted 2 masked priming lexical decision experiments in which the words/nonwords contained a middle letter that was visually similar to a multi-letter homoglyph (e.g., docurnent [rn-m], presiclent [cl-d]). Three types of primes were employed: identity, multi-letter homoglyph, and orthographic control. We used 2 commonly used fonts: Tahoma in Experiment 1 and Calibri in Experiment 2. Results in both experiments showed faster word identification times in the homoglyph condition than in the control condition (e.g., docurnento-DOCUMENTO faster than docusnento-DOCUMENTO). Furthermore, the homoglyph condition produced nearly the same latencies as the identity condition. These findings have important implications not only at a theoretical level (models of printed word recognition) but also at an applied level (Internet administrators/users). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Statistical post-processing of seasonal multi-model forecasts: Why is it so hard to beat the multi-model mean?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegert, Stefan

2017-04-01

Initialised climate forecasts on seasonal time scales, run several months or even years ahead, are now an integral part of the battery of products offered by climate services world-wide. The availability of seasonal climate forecasts from various modeling centres gives rise to multi-model ensemble forecasts. Post-processing such seasonal-to-decadal multi-model forecasts is challenging 1) because the cross-correlation structure between multiple models and observations can be complicated, 2) because the amount of training data to fit the post-processing parameters is very limited, and 3) because the forecast skill of numerical models tends to be low on seasonal time scales. In this talk I will review new statistical post-processing frameworks for multi-model ensembles. I will focus particularly on Bayesian hierarchical modelling approaches, which are flexible enough to capture commonly made assumptions about collective and model-specific biases of multi-model ensembles. Despite the advances in statistical methodology, it turns out to be very difficult to out-perform the simplest post-processing method, which just recalibrates the multi-model ensemble mean by linear regression. I will discuss reasons for this, which are closely linked to the specific characteristics of seasonal multi-model forecasts. I explore possible directions for improvements, for example using informative priors on the post-processing parameters, and jointly modelling forecasts and observations.

Model based inference from microvascular measurements: Combining experimental measurements and model predictions using a Bayesian probabilistic approach

PubMed Central

Rasmussen, Peter M.; Smith, Amy F.; Sakadžić, Sava; Boas, David A.; Pries, Axel R.; Secomb, Timothy W.; Østergaard, Leif

2017-01-01

Objective In vivo imaging of the microcirculation and network-oriented modeling have emerged as powerful means of studying microvascular function and understanding its physiological significance. Network-oriented modeling may provide the means of summarizing vast amounts of data produced by high-throughput imaging techniques in terms of key, physiological indices. To estimate such indices with sufficient certainty, however, network-oriented analysis must be robust to the inevitable presence of uncertainty due to measurement errors as well as model errors. Methods We propose the Bayesian probabilistic data analysis framework as a means of integrating experimental measurements and network model simulations into a combined and statistically coherent analysis. The framework naturally handles noisy measurements and provides posterior distributions of model parameters as well as physiological indices associated with uncertainty. Results We applied the analysis framework to experimental data from three rat mesentery networks and one mouse brain cortex network. We inferred distributions for more than five hundred unknown pressure and hematocrit boundary conditions. Model predictions were consistent with previous analyses, and remained robust when measurements were omitted from model calibration. Conclusion Our Bayesian probabilistic approach may be suitable for optimizing data acquisition and for analyzing and reporting large datasets acquired as part of microvascular imaging studies. PMID:27987383

A fully automatic tool to perform accurate flood mapping by merging remote sensing imagery and ancillary data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Addabbo, Annarita; Refice, Alberto; Lovergine, Francesco; Pasquariello, Guido

2016-04-01

Flooding is one of the most frequent and expansive natural hazard. High-resolution flood mapping is an essential step in the monitoring and prevention of inundation hazard, both to gain insight into the processes involved in the generation of flooding events, and from the practical point of view of the precise assessment of inundated areas. Remote sensing data are recognized to be useful in this respect, thanks to the high resolution and regular revisit schedules of state-of-the-art satellites, moreover offering a synoptic overview of the extent of flooding. In particular, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data present several favorable characteristics for flood mapping, such as their relative insensitivity to the meteorological conditions during acquisitions, as well as the possibility of acquiring independently of solar illumination, thanks to the active nature of the radar sensors [1]. However, flood scenarios are typical examples of complex situations in which different factors have to be considered to provide accurate and robust interpretation of the situation on the ground: the presence of many land cover types, each one with a particular signature in presence of flood, requires modelling the behavior of different objects in the scene in order to associate them to flood or no flood conditions [2]. Generally, the fusion of multi-temporal, multi-sensor, multi-resolution and/or multi-platform Earth observation image data, together with other ancillary information, seems to have a key role in the pursuit of a consistent interpretation of complex scenes. In the case of flooding, distance from the river, terrain elevation, hydrologic information or some combination thereof can add useful information to remote sensing data. Suitable methods, able to manage and merge different kind of data, are so particularly needed. In this work, a fully automatic tool, based on Bayesian Networks (BNs) [3] and able to perform data fusion, is presented. It supplies flood maps describing the dynamics of each analysed event, combining time series of images, acquired by different sensors, with ancillary information. Some experiments have been performed by combining multi-temporal SAR intensity images, InSAR coherence and optical data, with geomorphic and other ground information. The tool has been tested on different flood events occurred in the Basilicata region (Italy) during the last years, showing good capabilities of identification of a large area interested by the flood phenomenon, partially overcoming the obstacle constituted by the presence of scattering/coherence classes corresponding to different land cover types, which respond differently to the presence of water and to inundation evolution [1] A. Refice et al, IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, vol. 7, no. 7, pp. 2711-2722, 2014. [2] L. Pulvirenti et al., IEEE Trans. Geosci. Rem. Sens., Vol. PP, pp. 1- 13, 2015. [3] A. D'Addabbo et al., "A Bayesian Network for Flood Detection combining SAR Imagery and Ancillary Data," IEEE Trans. Geosci. Rem. Sens., in press.

Bayesian Inference in the Modern Design of Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLoach, Richard

2008-01-01

This paper provides an elementary tutorial overview of Bayesian inference and its potential for application in aerospace experimentation in general and wind tunnel testing in particular. Bayes Theorem is reviewed and examples are provided to illustrate how it can be applied to objectively revise prior knowledge by incorporating insights subsequently obtained from additional observations, resulting in new (posterior) knowledge that combines information from both sources. A logical merger of Bayesian methods and certain aspects of Response Surface Modeling is explored. Specific applications to wind tunnel testing, computational code validation, and instrumentation calibration are discussed.

Comparing Families of Dynamic Causal Models

PubMed Central

Penny, Will D.; Stephan, Klaas E.; Daunizeau, Jean; Rosa, Maria J.; Friston, Karl J.; Schofield, Thomas M.; Leff, Alex P.

2010-01-01

Mathematical models of scientific data can be formally compared using Bayesian model evidence. Previous applications in the biological sciences have mainly focussed on model selection in which one first selects the model with the highest evidence and then makes inferences based on the parameters of that model. This “best model” approach is very useful but can become brittle if there are a large number of models to compare, and if different subjects use different models. To overcome this shortcoming we propose the combination of two further approaches: (i) family level inference and (ii) Bayesian model averaging within families. Family level inference removes uncertainty about aspects of model structure other than the characteristic of interest. For example: What are the inputs to the system? Is processing serial or parallel? Is it linear or nonlinear? Is it mediated by a single, crucial connection? We apply Bayesian model averaging within families to provide inferences about parameters that are independent of further assumptions about model structure. We illustrate the methods using Dynamic Causal Models of brain imaging data. PMID:20300649

Strategic rehabilitation planning of piped water networks using multi-criteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Scholten, Lisa; Scheidegger, Andreas; Reichert, Peter; Maurer, Max; Mauer, Max; Lienert, Judit

2014-02-01

To overcome the difficulties of strategic asset management of water distribution networks, a pipe failure and a rehabilitation model are combined to predict the long-term performance of rehabilitation strategies. Bayesian parameter estimation is performed to calibrate the failure and replacement model based on a prior distribution inferred from three large water utilities in Switzerland. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and scenario planning build the framework for evaluating 18 strategic rehabilitation alternatives under future uncertainty. Outcomes for three fundamental objectives (low costs, high reliability, and high intergenerational equity) are assessed. Exploitation of stochastic dominance concepts helps to identify twelve non-dominated alternatives and local sensitivity analysis of stakeholder preferences is used to rank them under four scenarios. Strategies with annual replacement of 1.5-2% of the network perform reasonably well under all scenarios. In contrast, the commonly used reactive replacement is not recommendable unless cost is the only relevant objective. Exemplified for a small Swiss water utility, this approach can readily be adapted to support strategic asset management for any utility size and based on objectives and preferences that matter to the respective decision makers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian multi-scale smoothing of photon-limited images with applications to astronomy and medicine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, John

Multi-scale models for smoothing Poisson signals or images have gained much attention over the past decade. A new Bayesian model is developed using the concept of the Chinese restaurant process to find structures in two-dimensional images when performing image reconstruction or smoothing. This new model performs very well when compared to other leading methodologies for the same problem. It is developed and evaluated theoretically and empirically throughout Chapter 2. The newly developed Bayesian model is extended to three-dimensional images in Chapter 3. The third dimension has numerous different applications, such as different energy spectra, another spatial index, or possibly a temporal dimension. Empirically, this method shows promise in reducing error with the use of simulation studies. A further development removes background noise in the image. This removal can further reduce the error and is done using a modeling adjustment and post-processing techniques. These details are given in Chapter 4. Applications to real world problems are given throughout. Photon-based images are common in astronomical imaging due to the collection of different types of energy such as X-Rays. Applications to real astronomical images are given, and these consist of X-ray images from the Chandra X-ray observatory satellite. Diagnostic medicine uses many types of imaging such as magnetic resonance imaging and computed tomography that can also benefit from smoothing techniques such as the one developed here. Reducing the amount of radiation a patient takes will make images more noisy, but this can be mitigated through the use of image smoothing techniques. Both types of images represent the potential real world use for these methods.

Basics of Bayesian methods.

PubMed

Ghosh, Sujit K

2010-01-01

Bayesian methods are rapidly becoming popular tools for making statistical inference in various fields of science including biology, engineering, finance, and genetics. One of the key aspects of Bayesian inferential method is its logical foundation that provides a coherent framework to utilize not only empirical but also scientific information available to a researcher. Prior knowledge arising from scientific background, expert judgment, or previously collected data is used to build a prior distribution which is then combined with current data via the likelihood function to characterize the current state of knowledge using the so-called posterior distribution. Bayesian methods allow the use of models of complex physical phenomena that were previously too difficult to estimate (e.g., using asymptotic approximations). Bayesian methods offer a means of more fully understanding issues that are central to many practical problems by allowing researchers to build integrated models based on hierarchical conditional distributions that can be estimated even with limited amounts of data. Furthermore, advances in numerical integration methods, particularly those based on Monte Carlo methods, have made it possible to compute the optimal Bayes estimators. However, there is a reasonably wide gap between the background of the empirically trained scientists and the full weight of Bayesian statistical inference. Hence, one of the goals of this chapter is to bridge the gap by offering elementary to advanced concepts that emphasize linkages between standard approaches and full probability modeling via Bayesian methods.

Three-Dimensional Bayesian Geostatistical Aquifer Characterization at the Hanford 300 Area using Tracer Test Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Xingyuan; Murakami, Haruko; Hahn, Melanie S.

2012-06-01

Tracer testing under natural or forced gradient flow holds the potential to provide useful information for characterizing subsurface properties, through monitoring, modeling and interpretation of the tracer plume migration in an aquifer. Non-reactive tracer experiments were conducted at the Hanford 300 Area, along with constant-rate injection tests and electromagnetic borehole flowmeter (EBF) profiling. A Bayesian data assimilation technique, the method of anchored distributions (MAD) [Rubin et al., 2010], was applied to assimilate the experimental tracer test data with the other types of data and to infer the three-dimensional heterogeneous structure of the hydraulic conductivity in the saturated zone of themore » Hanford formation. In this study, the Bayesian prior information on the underlying random hydraulic conductivity field was obtained from previous field characterization efforts using the constant-rate injection tests and the EBF data. The posterior distribution of the conductivity field was obtained by further conditioning the field on the temporal moments of tracer breakthrough curves at various observation wells. MAD was implemented with the massively-parallel three-dimensional flow and transport code PFLOTRAN to cope with the highly transient flow boundary conditions at the site and to meet the computational demands of MAD. A synthetic study proved that the proposed method could effectively invert tracer test data to capture the essential spatial heterogeneity of the three-dimensional hydraulic conductivity field. Application of MAD to actual field data shows that the hydrogeological model, when conditioned on the tracer test data, can reproduce the tracer transport behavior better than the field characterized without the tracer test data. This study successfully demonstrates that MAD can sequentially assimilate multi-scale multi-type field data through a consistent Bayesian framework.« less

Bayesian model evidence as a model evaluation metric

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guthke, Anneli; Höge, Marvin; Nowak, Wolfgang

2017-04-01

When building environmental systems models, we are typically confronted with the questions of how to choose an appropriate model (i.e., which processes to include or neglect) and how to measure its quality. Various metrics have been proposed that shall guide the modeller towards a most robust and realistic representation of the system under study. Criteria for evaluation often address aspects of accuracy (absence of bias) or of precision (absence of unnecessary variance) and need to be combined in a meaningful way in order to address the inherent bias-variance dilemma. We suggest using Bayesian model evidence (BME) as a model evaluation metric that implicitly performs a tradeoff between bias and variance. BME is typically associated with model weights in the context of Bayesian model averaging (BMA). However, it can also be seen as a model evaluation metric in a single-model context or in model comparison. It combines a measure for goodness of fit with a penalty for unjustifiable complexity. Unjustifiable refers to the fact that the appropriate level of model complexity is limited by the amount of information available for calibration. Derived in a Bayesian context, BME naturally accounts for measurement errors in the calibration data as well as for input and parameter uncertainty. BME is therefore perfectly suitable to assess model quality under uncertainty. We will explain in detail and with schematic illustrations what BME measures, i.e. how complexity is defined in the Bayesian setting and how this complexity is balanced with goodness of fit. We will further discuss how BME compares to other model evaluation metrics that address accuracy and precision such as the predictive logscore or other model selection criteria such as the AIC, BIC or KIC. Although computationally more expensive than other metrics or criteria, BME represents an appealing alternative because it provides a global measure of model quality. Even if not applicable to each and every case, we aim at stimulating discussion about how to judge the quality of hydrological models in the presence of uncertainty in general by dissecting the mechanism behind BME.

Modelling strategies to predict the multi-scale effects of rural land management change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulygina, N.; Ballard, C. E.; Jackson, B. M.; McIntyre, N.; Marshall, M.; Reynolds, B.; Wheater, H. S.

2011-12-01

Changes to the rural landscape due to agricultural land management are ubiquitous, yet predicting the multi-scale effects of land management change on hydrological response remains an important scientific challenge. Much empirical research has been of little generic value due to inadequate design and funding of monitoring programmes, while the modelling issues challenge the capability of data-based, conceptual and physics-based modelling approaches. In this paper we report on a major UK research programme, motivated by a national need to quantify effects of agricultural intensification on flood risk. Working with a consortium of farmers in upland Wales, a multi-scale experimental programme (from experimental plots to 2nd order catchments) was developed to address issues of upland agricultural intensification. This provided data support for a multi-scale modelling programme, in which highly detailed physics-based models were conditioned on the experimental data and used to explore effects of potential field-scale interventions. A meta-modelling strategy was developed to represent detailed modelling in a computationally-efficient manner for catchment-scale simulation; this allowed catchment-scale quantification of potential management options. For more general application to data-sparse areas, alternative approaches were needed. Physics-based models were developed for a range of upland management problems, including the restoration of drained peatlands, afforestation, and changing grazing practices. Their performance was explored using literature and surrogate data; although subject to high levels of uncertainty, important insights were obtained, of practical relevance to management decisions. In parallel, regionalised conceptual modelling was used to explore the potential of indices of catchment response, conditioned on readily-available catchment characteristics, to represent ungauged catchments subject to land management change. Although based in part on speculative relationships, significant predictive power was derived from this approach. Finally, using a formal Bayesian procedure, these different sources of information were combined with local flow data in a catchment-scale conceptual model application , i.e. using small-scale physical properties, regionalised signatures of flow and available flow measurements.

Bayesian nonparametric dictionary learning for compressed sensing MRI.

PubMed

Huang, Yue; Paisley, John; Lin, Qin; Ding, Xinghao; Fu, Xueyang; Zhang, Xiao-Ping

2014-12-01

We develop a Bayesian nonparametric model for reconstructing magnetic resonance images (MRIs) from highly undersampled k -space data. We perform dictionary learning as part of the image reconstruction process. To this end, we use the beta process as a nonparametric dictionary learning prior for representing an image patch as a sparse combination of dictionary elements. The size of the dictionary and patch-specific sparsity pattern are inferred from the data, in addition to other dictionary learning variables. Dictionary learning is performed directly on the compressed image, and so is tailored to the MRI being considered. In addition, we investigate a total variation penalty term in combination with the dictionary learning model, and show how the denoising property of dictionary learning removes dependence on regularization parameters in the noisy setting. We derive a stochastic optimization algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo for the Bayesian model, and use the alternating direction method of multipliers for efficiently performing total variation minimization. We present empirical results on several MRI, which show that the proposed regularization framework can improve reconstruction accuracy over other methods.

Predicting coastal cliff erosion using a Bayesian probabilistic model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hapke, Cheryl J.; Plant, Nathaniel G.

2010-01-01

Regional coastal cliff retreat is difficult to model due to the episodic nature of failures and the along-shore variability of retreat events. There is a growing demand, however, for predictive models that can be used to forecast areas vulnerable to coastal erosion hazards. Increasingly, probabilistic models are being employed that require data sets of high temporal density to define the joint probability density function that relates forcing variables (e.g. wave conditions) and initial conditions (e.g. cliff geometry) to erosion events. In this study we use a multi-parameter Bayesian network to investigate correlations between key variables that control and influence variations in cliff retreat processes. The network uses Bayesian statistical methods to estimate event probabilities using existing observations. Within this framework, we forecast the spatial distribution of cliff retreat along two stretches of cliffed coast in Southern California. The input parameters are the height and slope of the cliff, a descriptor of material strength based on the dominant cliff-forming lithology, and the long-term cliff erosion rate that represents prior behavior. The model is forced using predicted wave impact hours. Results demonstrate that the Bayesian approach is well-suited to the forward modeling of coastal cliff retreat, with the correct outcomes forecast in 70–90% of the modeled transects. The model also performs well in identifying specific locations of high cliff erosion, thus providing a foundation for hazard mapping. This approach can be employed to predict cliff erosion at time-scales ranging from storm events to the impacts of sea-level rise at the century-scale.

Research on Nonlinear Time Series Forecasting of Time-Delay NN Embedded with Bayesian Regularization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Weijin; Xu, Yusheng; Xu, Yuhui; Wang, Jianmin

Based on the idea of nonlinear prediction of phase space reconstruction, this paper presented a time delay BP neural network model, whose generalization capability was improved by Bayesian regularization. Furthermore, the model is applied to forecast the imp&exp trades in one industry. The results showed that the improved model has excellent generalization capabilities, which not only learned the historical curve, but efficiently predicted the trend of business. Comparing with common evaluation of forecasts, we put on a conclusion that nonlinear forecast can not only focus on data combination and precision improvement, it also can vividly reflect the nonlinear characteristic of the forecasting system. While analyzing the forecasting precision of the model, we give a model judgment by calculating the nonlinear characteristic value of the combined serial and original serial, proved that the forecasting model can reasonably 'catch' the dynamic characteristic of the nonlinear system which produced the origin serial.

Male greater sage-grouse movements among leks

Treesearch

Aleshia L. Fremgen; Christopher T. Rota; Christopher P. Hansen; Mark A. Rumble; R. Scott Gamo; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2017-01-01

Movements among leks by breeding birds (i.e., interlek movements) could affect the population's genetic flow, complicate use of lek counts as a population index, and indicate a change in breeding behavior following a disturbance. We used a Bayesian multi-state mark-recapture model to assess the daily probability of male greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus...

Comparison of Bayesian models to estimate direct genomic values in multi-breed commercial beef cattle

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background Several studies have examined the accuracy of genomic selection both within and across purebred beef or dairy populations. However, the accuracy of direct genomic breeding values (DGVs) has been less well studied in crossbred or admixed cattle populations. We used a population of 3,240 cr...

A fast combination method in DSmT and its application to recommender system

PubMed Central

Liu, Yihai

2018-01-01

In many applications involving epistemic uncertainties usually modeled by belief functions, it is often necessary to approximate general (non-Bayesian) basic belief assignments (BBAs) to subjective probabilities (called Bayesian BBAs). This necessity occurs if one needs to embed the fusion result in a system based on the probabilistic framework and Bayesian inference (e.g. tracking systems), or if one needs to make a decision in the decision making problems. In this paper, we present a new fast combination method, called modified rigid coarsening (MRC), to obtain the final Bayesian BBAs based on hierarchical decomposition (coarsening) of the frame of discernment. Regarding this method, focal elements with probabilities are coarsened efficiently to reduce computational complexity in the process of combination by using disagreement vector and a simple dichotomous approach. In order to prove the practicality of our approach, this new approach is applied to combine users’ soft preferences in recommender systems (RSs). Additionally, in order to make a comprehensive performance comparison, the proportional conflict redistribution rule #6 (PCR6) is regarded as a baseline in a range of experiments. According to the results of experiments, MRC is more effective in accuracy of recommendations compared to original Rigid Coarsening (RC) method and comparable in computational time. PMID:29351297

Anti-Obesity Agents and the US Food and Drug Administration.

PubMed

Casey, Martin F; Mechanick, Jeffrey I

2014-09-01

Despite the growing market for obesity care, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved only two new pharmaceutical agents-lorcaserin and combination phentermine/topiramate-for weight reduction since 2000, while removing three agents from the market in the same time period. This article explores the FDA's history and role in the approval of anti-obesity medications within the context of a public health model of obesity. Through the review of obesity literature and FDA approval documents, we identified two major barriers preventing fair evaluation of anti-obesity agents including: (1) methodological pitfalls in clinical trials and (2) misaligned values in the assessment of anti-obesity agents. Specific recommendations include the use of adaptive (Bayesian) design protocols, value-based analyses of risks and benefits, and regulatory guidance based on a comprehensive, multi-platform obesity disease model. Positively addressing barriers in the FDA approval process of anti-obesity agents may have many beneficial effects within an obesity disease model.

Bayesian-information-gap decision theory with an application to CO 2 sequestration

DOE PAGES

O'Malley, D.; Vesselinov, V. V.

2015-09-04

Decisions related to subsurface engineering problems such as groundwater management, fossil fuel production, and geologic carbon sequestration are frequently challenging because of an overabundance of uncertainties (related to conceptualizations, parameters, observations, etc.). Because of the importance of these problems to agriculture, energy, and the climate (respectively), good decisions that are scientifically defensible must be made despite the uncertainties. We describe a general approach to making decisions for challenging problems such as these in the presence of severe uncertainties that combines probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods. The approach uses Bayesian sampling to assess parametric uncertainty and Information-Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) to addressmore » model inadequacy. The combined approach also resolves an issue that frequently arises when applying Bayesian methods to real-world engineering problems related to the enumeration of possible outcomes. In the case of zero non-probabilistic uncertainty, the method reduces to a Bayesian method. Lastly, to illustrate the approach, we apply it to a site-selection decision for geologic CO 2 sequestration.« less

On uncertainty quantification in hydrogeology and hydrogeophysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linde, Niklas; Ginsbourger, David; Irving, James; Nobile, Fabio; Doucet, Arnaud

2017-12-01

Recent advances in sensor technologies, field methodologies, numerical modeling, and inversion approaches have contributed to unprecedented imaging of hydrogeological properties and detailed predictions at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Nevertheless, imaging results and predictions will always remain imprecise, which calls for appropriate uncertainty quantification (UQ). In this paper, we outline selected methodological developments together with pioneering UQ applications in hydrogeology and hydrogeophysics. The applied mathematics and statistics literature is not easy to penetrate and this review aims at helping hydrogeologists and hydrogeophysicists to identify suitable approaches for UQ that can be applied and further developed to their specific needs. To bypass the tremendous computational costs associated with forward UQ based on full-physics simulations, we discuss proxy-modeling strategies and multi-resolution (Multi-level Monte Carlo) methods. We consider Bayesian inversion for non-linear and non-Gaussian state-space problems and discuss how Sequential Monte Carlo may become a practical alternative. We also describe strategies to account for forward modeling errors in Bayesian inversion. Finally, we consider hydrogeophysical inversion, where petrophysical uncertainty is often ignored leading to overconfident parameter estimation. The high parameter and data dimensions encountered in hydrogeological and geophysical problems make UQ a complicated and important challenge that has only been partially addressed to date.

Machine Learning Techniques for Global Sensitivity Analysis in Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safta, C.; Sargsyan, K.; Ricciuto, D. M.

2017-12-01

Climate models studies are not only challenged by the compute intensive nature of these models but also by the high-dimensionality of the input parameter space. In our previous work with the land model components (Sargsyan et al., 2014) we identified subsets of 10 to 20 parameters relevant for each QoI via Bayesian compressive sensing and variance-based decomposition. Nevertheless the algorithms were challenged by the nonlinear input-output dependencies for some of the relevant QoIs. In this work we will explore a combination of techniques to extract relevant parameters for each QoI and subsequently construct surrogate models with quantified uncertainty necessary to future developments, e.g. model calibration and prediction studies. In the first step, we will compare the skill of machine-learning models (e.g. neural networks, support vector machine) to identify the optimal number of classes in selected QoIs and construct robust multi-class classifiers that will partition the parameter space in regions with smooth input-output dependencies. These classifiers will be coupled with techniques aimed at building sparse and/or low-rank surrogate models tailored to each class. Specifically we will explore and compare sparse learning techniques with low-rank tensor decompositions. These models will be used to identify parameters that are important for each QoI. Surrogate accuracy requirements are higher for subsequent model calibration studies and we will ascertain the performance of this workflow for multi-site ALM simulation ensembles.

A compressive sensing-based computational method for the inversion of wide-band ground penetrating radar data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gelmini, A.; Gottardi, G.; Moriyama, T.

2017-10-01

This work presents an innovative computational approach for the inversion of wideband ground penetrating radar (GPR) data. The retrieval of the dielectric characteristics of sparse scatterers buried in a lossy soil is performed by combining a multi-task Bayesian compressive sensing (MT-BCS) solver and a frequency hopping (FH) strategy. The developed methodology is able to benefit from the regularization capabilities of the MT-BCS as well as to exploit the multi-chromatic informative content of GPR measurements. A set of numerical results is reported in order to assess the effectiveness of the proposed GPR inverse scattering technique, as well as to compare it to a simpler single-task implementation.

Bayesian Framework Approach for Prognostic Studies in Electrolytic Capacitor under Thermal Overstress Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

make end of life ( EOL ) and remaining useful life (RUL) estimations. Model-based prognostics approaches perform these tasks with the help of first...in parameters Degradation Modeling Parameter estimation Prediction Thermal / Electrical Stress Experimental Data State Space model RUL EOL ...distribution at given single time point kP , and use this for multi-step predictions to EOL . There are several methods which exits for selecting the sigma

Bayesian Inference for Generalized Linear Models for Spiking Neurons

PubMed Central

Gerwinn, Sebastian; Macke, Jakob H.; Bethge, Matthias

2010-01-01

Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) are commonly used statistical methods for modelling the relationship between neural population activity and presented stimuli. When the dimension of the parameter space is large, strong regularization has to be used in order to fit GLMs to datasets of realistic size without overfitting. By imposing properly chosen priors over parameters, Bayesian inference provides an effective and principled approach for achieving regularization. Here we show how the posterior distribution over model parameters of GLMs can be approximated by a Gaussian using the Expectation Propagation algorithm. In this way, we obtain an estimate of the posterior mean and posterior covariance, allowing us to calculate Bayesian confidence intervals that characterize the uncertainty about the optimal solution. From the posterior we also obtain a different point estimate, namely the posterior mean as opposed to the commonly used maximum a posteriori estimate. We systematically compare the different inference techniques on simulated as well as on multi-electrode recordings of retinal ganglion cells, and explore the effects of the chosen prior and the performance measure used. We find that good performance can be achieved by choosing an Laplace prior together with the posterior mean estimate. PMID:20577627

Reducing the Uncertainty in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Projections Using Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; An, S. I.

2016-12-01

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the ocean might slow down in the future, which can lead to a host of climatic effects in North Atlantic and throughout the world. Despite improvements in climate models and availability of new observations, AMOC projections remain uncertain. Here we constrain CMIP5 multi-model ensemble output with observations of a recently developed AMOC index to provide improved Bayesian predictions of future AMOC. Specifically, we first calculate yearly AMOC index loosely based on Rahmstorf et al. (2015) for years 1880—2004 for both observations, and the CMIP5 models for which relevant output is available. We then assign a weight to each model based on a Bayesian Model Averaging method that accounts for differential model skill in terms of both mean state and variability. We include the temporal autocorrelation in climate model errors, and account for the uncertainty in the parameters of our statistical model. We use the weights to provide future weighted projections of AMOC, and compare them to un-weighted ones. Our projections use bootstrapping to account for uncertainty in internal AMOC variability. We also perform spectral and other statistical analyses to show that AMOC index variability, both in models and in observations, is consistent with red noise. Our results improve on and complement previous work by using a new ensemble of climate models, a different observational metric, and an improved Bayesian weighting method that accounts for differential model skill at reproducing internal variability. Reference: Rahmstorf, S., Box, J. E., Feulner, G., Mann, M. E., Robinson, A., Rutherford, S., & Schaffernicht, E. J. (2015). Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in atlantic ocean overturning circulation. Nature Climate Change, 5(5), 475-480. doi:10.1038/nclimate2554

Combining Bayesian Networks and Agent Based Modeling to develop a decision-support model in Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nong, Bao Anh; Ertsen, Maurits; Schoups, Gerrit

2016-04-01

Complexity and uncertainty in natural resources management have been focus themes in recent years. Within these debates, with the aim to define an approach feasible for water management practice, we are developing an integrated conceptual modeling framework for simulating decision-making processes of citizens, in our case in the Day river area, Vietnam. The model combines Bayesian Networks (BNs) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). BNs are able to combine both qualitative data from consultants / experts / stakeholders, and quantitative data from observations on different phenomena or outcomes from other models. Further strengths of BNs are that the relationship between variables in the system is presented in a graphical interface, and that components of uncertainty are explicitly related to their probabilistic dependencies. A disadvantage is that BNs cannot easily identify the feedback of agents in the system once changes appear. Hence, ABM was adopted to represent the reaction among stakeholders under changes. The modeling framework is developed as an attempt to gain better understanding about citizen's behavior and factors influencing their decisions in order to reduce uncertainty in the implementation of water management policy.

Bayesian identification of acoustic impedance in treated ducts.

PubMed

Buot de l'Épine, Y; Chazot, J-D; Ville, J-M

2015-07-01

The noise reduction of a liner placed in the nacelle of a turbofan engine is still difficult to predict due to the lack of knowledge of its acoustic impedance that depends on grazing flow profile, mode order, and sound pressure level. An eduction method, based on a Bayesian approach, is presented here to adjust an impedance model of the liner from sound pressures measured in a rectangular treated duct under multimodal propagation and flow. The cost function is regularized with prior information provided by Guess's [J. Sound Vib. 40, 119-137 (1975)] impedance of a perforated plate. The multi-parameter optimization is achieved with an Evolutionary-Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo algorithm.

Hunting down the best model of inflation with Bayesian evidence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martin, Jerome; Ringeval, Christophe; Trotta, Roberto

2011-03-15

We present the first calculation of the Bayesian evidence for different prototypical single field inflationary scenarios, including representative classes of small field and large field models. This approach allows us to compare inflationary models in a well-defined statistical way and to determine the current 'best model of inflation'. The calculation is performed numerically by interfacing the inflationary code FieldInf with MultiNest. We find that small field models are currently preferred, while large field models having a self-interacting potential of power p>4 are strongly disfavored. The class of small field models as a whole has posterior odds of approximately 3 ratiomore » 1 when compared with the large field class. The methodology and results presented in this article are an additional step toward the construction of a full numerical pipeline to constrain the physics of the early Universe with astrophysical observations. More accurate data (such as the Planck data) and the techniques introduced here should allow us to identify conclusively the best inflationary model.« less

Application of Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filter in parameter calibration of groundwater flow model in PingTung Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, Shao-Yong; Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2017-04-01

Due to the limited hydrogeological observation data and high levels of uncertainty within, parameter estimation of the groundwater model has been an important issue. There are many methods of parameter estimation, for example, Kalman filter provides a real-time calibration of parameters through measurement of groundwater monitoring wells, related methods such as Extended Kalman Filter and Ensemble Kalman Filter are widely applied in groundwater research. However, Kalman Filter method is limited to linearity. This study propose a novel method, Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filtering, which provides a method that can considers the uncertainty of data in parameter estimation. With this two methods, we can estimate parameter by given hard data (certain) and soft data (uncertain) in the same time. In this study, we use Python and QGIS in groundwater model (MODFLOW) and development of Extended Kalman Filter and Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filtering in Python in parameter estimation. This method may provide a conventional filtering method and also consider the uncertainty of data. This study was conducted through numerical model experiment to explore, combine Bayesian maximum entropy filter and a hypothesis for the architecture of MODFLOW groundwater model numerical estimation. Through the virtual observation wells to simulate and observe the groundwater model periodically. The result showed that considering the uncertainty of data, the Bayesian maximum entropy filter will provide an ideal result of real-time parameters estimation.

Kernel-density estimation and approximate Bayesian computation for flexible epidemiological model fitting in Python.

PubMed

Irvine, Michael A; Hollingsworth, T Déirdre

2018-05-26

Fitting complex models to epidemiological data is a challenging problem: methodologies can be inaccessible to all but specialists, there may be challenges in adequately describing uncertainty in model fitting, the complex models may take a long time to run, and it can be difficult to fully capture the heterogeneity in the data. We develop an adaptive approximate Bayesian computation scheme to fit a variety of epidemiologically relevant data with minimal hyper-parameter tuning by using an adaptive tolerance scheme. We implement a novel kernel density estimation scheme to capture both dispersed and multi-dimensional data, and directly compare this technique to standard Bayesian approaches. We then apply the procedure to a complex individual-based simulation of lymphatic filariasis, a human parasitic disease. The procedure and examples are released alongside this article as an open access library, with examples to aid researchers to rapidly fit models to data. This demonstrates that an adaptive ABC scheme with a general summary and distance metric is capable of performing model fitting for a variety of epidemiological data. It also does not require significant theoretical background to use and can be made accessible to the diverse epidemiological research community. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian GGE biplot models applied to maize multi-environments trials.

PubMed

de Oliveira, L A; da Silva, C P; Nuvunga, J J; da Silva, A Q; Balestre, M

2016-06-17

The additive main effects and multiplicative interaction (AMMI) and the genotype main effects and genotype x environment interaction (GGE) models stand out among the linear-bilinear models used in genotype x environment interaction studies. Despite the advantages of their use to describe genotype x environment (AMMI) or genotype and genotype x environment (GGE) interactions, these methods have known limitations that are inherent to fixed effects models, including difficulty in treating variance heterogeneity and missing data. Traditional biplots include no measure of uncertainty regarding the principal components. The present study aimed to apply the Bayesian approach to GGE biplot models and assess the implications for selecting stable and adapted genotypes. Our results demonstrated that the Bayesian approach applied to GGE models with non-informative priors was consistent with the traditional GGE biplot analysis, although the credible region incorporated into the biplot enabled distinguishing, based on probability, the performance of genotypes, and their relationships with the environments in the biplot. Those regions also enabled the identification of groups of genotypes and environments with similar effects in terms of adaptability and stability. The relative position of genotypes and environments in biplots is highly affected by the experimental accuracy. Thus, incorporation of uncertainty in biplots is a key tool for breeders to make decisions regarding stability selection and adaptability and the definition of mega-environments.

Bayesian Travel Time Inversion adopting Gaussian Process Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauerberger, S.; Holschneider, M.

2017-12-01

A major application in seismology is the determination of seismic velocity models. Travel time measurements are putting an integral constraint on the velocity between source and receiver. We provide insight into travel time inversion from a correlation-based Bayesian point of view. Therefore, the concept of Gaussian process regression is adopted to estimate a velocity model. The non-linear travel time integral is approximated by a 1st order Taylor expansion. A heuristic covariance describes correlations amongst observations and a priori model. That approach enables us to assess a proxy of the Bayesian posterior distribution at ordinary computational costs. No multi dimensional numeric integration nor excessive sampling is necessary. Instead of stacking the data, we suggest to progressively build the posterior distribution. Incorporating only a single evidence at a time accounts for the deficit of linearization. As a result, the most probable model is given by the posterior mean whereas uncertainties are described by the posterior covariance.As a proof of concept, a synthetic purely 1d model is addressed. Therefore a single source accompanied by multiple receivers is considered on top of a model comprising a discontinuity. We consider travel times of both phases - direct and reflected wave - corrupted by noise. Left and right of the interface are assumed independent where the squared exponential kernel serves as covariance.

Evaluation of a Partial Genome Screening of Two Asthma Susceptibility Regions Using Bayesian Network Based Bayesian Multilevel Analysis of Relevance

PubMed Central

Antal, Péter; Kiszel, Petra Sz.; Gézsi, András; Hadadi, Éva; Virág, Viktor; Hajós, Gergely; Millinghoffer, András; Nagy, Adrienne; Kiss, András; Semsei, Ágnes F.; Temesi, Gergely; Melegh, Béla; Kisfali, Péter; Széll, Márta; Bikov, András; Gálffy, Gabriella; Tamási, Lilla; Falus, András; Szalai, Csaba

2012-01-01

Genetic studies indicate high number of potential factors related to asthma. Based on earlier linkage analyses we selected the 11q13 and 14q22 asthma susceptibility regions, for which we designed a partial genome screening study using 145 SNPs in 1201 individuals (436 asthmatic children and 765 controls). The results were evaluated with traditional frequentist methods and we applied a new statistical method, called Bayesian network based Bayesian multilevel analysis of relevance (BN-BMLA). This method uses Bayesian network representation to provide detailed characterization of the relevance of factors, such as joint significance, the type of dependency, and multi-target aspects. We estimated posteriors for these relations within the Bayesian statistical framework, in order to estimate the posteriors whether a variable is directly relevant or its association is only mediated. With frequentist methods one SNP (rs3751464 in the FRMD6 gene) provided evidence for an association with asthma (OR = 1.43(1.2–1.8); p = 3×10−4). The possible role of the FRMD6 gene in asthma was also confirmed in an animal model and human asthmatics. In the BN-BMLA analysis altogether 5 SNPs in 4 genes were found relevant in connection with asthma phenotype: PRPF19 on chromosome 11, and FRMD6, PTGER2 and PTGDR on chromosome 14. In a subsequent step a partial dataset containing rhinitis and further clinical parameters was used, which allowed the analysis of relevance of SNPs for asthma and multiple targets. These analyses suggested that SNPs in the AHNAK and MS4A2 genes were indirectly associated with asthma. This paper indicates that BN-BMLA explores the relevant factors more comprehensively than traditional statistical methods and extends the scope of strong relevance based methods to include partial relevance, global characterization of relevance and multi-target relevance. PMID:22432035

Multi-dimensional classification of GABAergic interneurons with Bayesian network-modeled label uncertainty.

PubMed

Mihaljević, Bojan; Bielza, Concha; Benavides-Piccione, Ruth; DeFelipe, Javier; Larrañaga, Pedro

2014-01-01

Interneuron classification is an important and long-debated topic in neuroscience. A recent study provided a data set of digitally reconstructed interneurons classified by 42 leading neuroscientists according to a pragmatic classification scheme composed of five categorical variables, namely, of the interneuron type and four features of axonal morphology. From this data set we now learned a model which can classify interneurons, on the basis of their axonal morphometric parameters, into these five descriptive variables simultaneously. Because of differences in opinion among the neuroscientists, especially regarding neuronal type, for many interneurons we lacked a unique, agreed-upon classification, which we could use to guide model learning. Instead, we guided model learning with a probability distribution over the neuronal type and the axonal features, obtained, for each interneuron, from the neuroscientists' classification choices. We conveniently encoded such probability distributions with Bayesian networks, calling them label Bayesian networks (LBNs), and developed a method to predict them. This method predicts an LBN by forming a probabilistic consensus among the LBNs of the interneurons most similar to the one being classified. We used 18 axonal morphometric parameters as predictor variables, 13 of which we introduce in this paper as quantitative counterparts to the categorical axonal features. We were able to accurately predict interneuronal LBNs. Furthermore, when extracting crisp (i.e., non-probabilistic) predictions from the predicted LBNs, our method outperformed related work on interneuron classification. Our results indicate that our method is adequate for multi-dimensional classification of interneurons with probabilistic labels. Moreover, the introduced morphometric parameters are good predictors of interneuron type and the four features of axonal morphology and thus may serve as objective counterparts to the subjective, categorical axonal features.

Spectral likelihood expansions for Bayesian inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagel, Joseph B.; Sudret, Bruno

2016-03-01

A spectral approach to Bayesian inference is presented. It pursues the emulation of the posterior probability density. The starting point is a series expansion of the likelihood function in terms of orthogonal polynomials. From this spectral likelihood expansion all statistical quantities of interest can be calculated semi-analytically. The posterior is formally represented as the product of a reference density and a linear combination of polynomial basis functions. Both the model evidence and the posterior moments are related to the expansion coefficients. This formulation avoids Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and allows one to make use of linear least squares instead. The pros and cons of spectral Bayesian inference are discussed and demonstrated on the basis of simple applications from classical statistics and inverse modeling.

Robust optimization of supersonic ORC nozzle guide vanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bufi, Elio A.; Cinnella, Paola

2017-03-01

An efficient Robust Optimization (RO) strategy is developed for the design of 2D supersonic Organic Rankine Cycle turbine expanders. The dense gas effects are not-negligible for this application and they are taken into account describing the thermodynamics by means of the Peng-Robinson-Stryjek-Vera equation of state. The design methodology combines an Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) loop based on a Bayesian kriging model of the system response to the uncertain parameters, used to approximate statistics (mean and variance) of the uncertain system output, a CFD solver, and a multi-objective non-dominated sorting algorithm (NSGA), also based on a Kriging surrogate of the multi-objective fitness function, along with an adaptive infill strategy for surrogate enrichment at each generation of the NSGA. The objective functions are the average and variance of the isentropic efficiency. The blade shape is parametrized by means of a Free Form Deformation (FFD) approach. The robust optimal blades are compared to the baseline design (based on the Method of Characteristics) and to a blade obtained by means of a deterministic CFD-based optimization.

Multi-Objective data analysis using Bayesian Inference for MagLIF experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knapp, Patrick; Glinksy, Michael; Evans, Matthew; Gom, Matth; Han, Stephanie; Harding, Eric; Slutz, Steve; Hahn, Kelly; Harvey-Thompson, Adam; Geissel, Matthias; Ampleford, David; Jennings, Christopher; Schmit, Paul; Smith, Ian; Schwarz, Jens; Peterson, Kyle; Jones, Brent; Rochau, Gregory; Sinars, Daniel

2017-10-01

The MagLIF concept has recently demonstrated Gbar pressures and confinement of charged fusion products at stagnation. We present a new analysis methodology that allows for integration of multiple diagnostics including nuclear, x-ray imaging, and x-ray power to determine the temperature, pressure, liner areal density, and mix fraction. A simplified hot-spot model is used with a Bayesian inference network to determine the most probable model parameters that describe the observations while simultaneously revealing the principal uncertainties in the analysis. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.

Predicting ICU mortality: a comparison of stationary and nonstationary temporal models.

PubMed Central

Kayaalp, M.; Cooper, G. F.; Clermont, G.

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluates the effectiveness of the stationarity assumption in predicting the mortality of intensive care unit (ICU) patients at the ICU discharge. DESIGN: This is a comparative study. A stationary temporal Bayesian network learned from data was compared to a set of (33) nonstationary temporal Bayesian networks learned from data. A process observed as a sequence of events is stationary if its stochastic properties stay the same when the sequence is shifted in a positive or negative direction by a constant time parameter. The temporal Bayesian networks forecast mortalities of patients, where each patient has one record per day. The predictive performance of the stationary model is compared with nonstationary models using the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. RESULTS: The stationary model usually performed best. However, one nonstationary model using large data sets performed significantly better than the stationary model. CONCLUSION: Results suggest that using a combination of stationary and nonstationary models may predict better than using either alone. PMID:11079917

Bayesian state space models for dynamic genetic network construction across multiple tissues.

PubMed

Liang, Yulan; Kelemen, Arpad

2016-08-01

Construction of gene-gene interaction networks and potential pathways is a challenging and important problem in genomic research for complex diseases while estimating the dynamic changes of the temporal correlations and non-stationarity are the keys in this process. In this paper, we develop dynamic state space models with hierarchical Bayesian settings to tackle this challenge for inferring the dynamic profiles and genetic networks associated with disease treatments. We treat both the stochastic transition matrix and the observation matrix time-variant and include temporal correlation structures in the covariance matrix estimations in the multivariate Bayesian state space models. The unevenly spaced short time courses with unseen time points are treated as hidden state variables. Hierarchical Bayesian approaches with various prior and hyper-prior models with Monte Carlo Markov Chain and Gibbs sampling algorithms are used to estimate the model parameters and the hidden state variables. We apply the proposed Hierarchical Bayesian state space models to multiple tissues (liver, skeletal muscle, and kidney) Affymetrix time course data sets following corticosteroid (CS) drug administration. Both simulation and real data analysis results show that the genomic changes over time and gene-gene interaction in response to CS treatment can be well captured by the proposed models. The proposed dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian state space modeling approaches could be expanded and applied to other large scale genomic data, such as next generation sequence (NGS) combined with real time and time varying electronic health record (EHR) for more comprehensive and robust systematic and network based analysis in order to transform big biomedical data into predictions and diagnostics for precision medicine and personalized healthcare with better decision making and patient outcomes.

Multinomial Bayesian learning for modeling classical and nonclassical receptive field properties.

PubMed

Hosoya, Haruo

2012-08-01

We study the interplay of Bayesian inference and natural image learning in a hierarchical vision system, in relation to the response properties of early visual cortex. We particularly focus on a Bayesian network with multinomial variables that can represent discrete feature spaces similar to hypercolumns combining minicolumns, enforce sparsity of activation to learn efficient representations, and explain divisive normalization. We demonstrate that maximal-likelihood learning using sampling-based Bayesian inference gives rise to classical receptive field properties similar to V1 simple cells and V2 cells, while inference performed on the trained network yields nonclassical context-dependent response properties such as cross-orientation suppression and filling in. Comparison with known physiological properties reveals some qualitative and quantitative similarities.

Periodic benefit-risk assessment using Bayesian stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis

PubMed Central

Li, Kan; Yuan, Shuai Sammy; Wang, William; Wan, Shuyan Sabrina; Ceesay, Paulette; Heyse, Joseph F.; Mt-Isa, Shahrul; Luo, Sheng

2018-01-01

Benefit-risk (BR) assessment is essential to ensure the best decisions are made for a medical product in the clinical development process, regulatory marketing authorization, post-market surveillance, and coverage and reimbursement decisions. One challenge of BR assessment in practice is that the benefit and risk profile may keep evolving while new evidence is accumulating. Regulators and the International Conference on Harmonization (ICH) recommend performing periodic benefit-risk evaluation report (PBRER) through the product's lifecycle. In this paper, we propose a general statistical framework for periodic benefit-risk assessment, in which Bayesian meta-analysis and stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) will be combined to synthesize the accumulating evidence. The proposed approach allows us to compare the acceptability of different drugs dynamically and effectively and accounts for the uncertainty of clinical measurements and imprecise or incomplete preference information of decision makers. We apply our approaches to two real examples in a post-hoc way for illustration purpose. The proposed method may easily be modified for other pre and post market settings, and thus be an important complement to the current structured benefit-risk assessment (sBRA) framework to improve the transparent and consistency of the decision-making process. PMID:29505866

Balancing the Role of Priors in Multi-Observer Segmentation Evaluation

PubMed Central

Huang, Xiaolei; Wang, Wei; Lopresti, Daniel; Long, Rodney; Antani, Sameer; Xue, Zhiyun; Thoma, George

2009-01-01

Comparison of a group of multiple observer segmentations is known to be a challenging problem. A good segmentation evaluation method would allow different segmentations not only to be compared, but to be combined to generate a “true” segmentation with higher consensus. Numerous multi-observer segmentation evaluation approaches have been proposed in the literature, and STAPLE in particular probabilistically estimates the true segmentation by optimal combination of observed segmentations and a prior model of the truth. An Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm, STAPLE’S convergence to the desired local minima depends on good initializations for the truth prior and the observer-performance prior. However, accurate modeling of the initial truth prior is nontrivial. Moreover, among the two priors, the truth prior always dominates so that in certain scenarios when meaningful observer-performance priors are available, STAPLE can not take advantage of that information. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian decision formulation of the problem that permits the two types of prior knowledge to be integrated in a complementary manner in four cases with differing application purposes: (1) with known truth prior; (2) with observer prior; (3) with neither truth prior nor observer prior; and (4) with both truth prior and observer prior. The third and fourth cases are not discussed (or effectively ignored) by STAPLE, and in our research we propose a new method to combine multiple-observer segmentations based on the maximum a posterior (MAP) principle, which respects the observer prior regardless of the availability of the truth prior. Based on the four scenarios, we have developed a web-based software application that implements the flexible segmentation evaluation framework for digitized uterine cervix images. Experiment results show that our framework has flexibility in effectively integrating different priors for multi-observer segmentation evaluation and it also generates results comparing favorably to those by the STAPLE algorithm and the Majority Vote Rule. PMID:20523759

A comparison of large-scale climate signals and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) for drought prediction in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Lei; Chen, Nengcheng; Zhang, Xiang

2018-02-01

Drought is an extreme natural disaster that can lead to huge socioeconomic losses. Drought prediction ahead of months is helpful for early drought warning and preparations. In this study, we developed a statistical model, two weighted dynamic models and a statistical-dynamic (hybrid) model for 1-6 month lead drought prediction in China. Specifically, statistical component refers to climate signals weighting by support vector regression (SVR), dynamic components consist of the ensemble mean (EM) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) climatic models, and the hybrid part denotes a combination of statistical and dynamic components by assigning weights based on their historical performances. The results indicate that the statistical and hybrid models show better rainfall predictions than NMME-EM and NMME-BMA models, which have good predictability only in southern China. In the 2011 China winter-spring drought event, the statistical model well predicted the spatial extent and severity of drought nationwide, although the severity was underestimated in the mid-lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLRYR) region. The NMME-EM and NMME-BMA models largely overestimated rainfall in northern and western China in 2011 drought. In the 2013 China summer drought, the NMME-EM model forecasted the drought extent and severity in eastern China well, while the statistical and hybrid models falsely detected negative precipitation anomaly (NPA) in some areas. Model ensembles such as multiple statistical approaches, multiple dynamic models or multiple hybrid models for drought predictions were highlighted. These conclusions may be helpful for drought prediction and early drought warnings in China.

Context Effects in Multi-Alternative Decision Making: Empirical Data and a Bayesian Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hawkins, Guy; Brown, Scott D.; Steyvers, Mark; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2012-01-01

For decisions between many alternatives, the benchmark result is Hick's Law: that response time increases log-linearly with the number of choice alternatives. Even when Hick's Law is observed for response times, divergent results have been observed for error rates--sometimes error rates increase with the number of choice alternatives, and…

Scheduling viability tests for seeds in long-term storage based on a Bayesian Multi-Level Model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Genebank managers conduct viability tests on stored seeds so they can replace lots that have viability near a critical threshold, such as 50 or 85% germination. Currently, these tests are typically scheduled at uniform intervals; testing every 5 years is common. A manager needs to balance the cost...

Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilkey, Kelly M.; Myers, Jerry G.; McRae, Michael P.; Griffin, Elise A.; Kallrui, Aditya S.

2012-01-01

The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

Exploiting neurovascular coupling: a Bayesian sequential Monte Carlo approach applied to simulated EEG fNIRS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croce, Pierpaolo; Zappasodi, Filippo; Merla, Arcangelo; Chiarelli, Antonio Maria

2017-08-01

Objective. Electrical and hemodynamic brain activity are linked through the neurovascular coupling process and they can be simultaneously measured through integration of electroencephalography (EEG) and functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS). Thanks to the lack of electro-optical interference, the two procedures can be easily combined and, whereas EEG provides electrophysiological information, fNIRS can provide measurements of two hemodynamic variables, such as oxygenated and deoxygenated hemoglobin. A Bayesian sequential Monte Carlo approach (particle filter, PF) was applied to simulated recordings of electrical and neurovascular mediated hemodynamic activity, and the advantages of a unified framework were shown. Approach. Multiple neural activities and hemodynamic responses were simulated in the primary motor cortex of a subject brain. EEG and fNIRS recordings were obtained by means of forward models of volume conduction and light propagation through the head. A state space model of combined EEG and fNIRS data was built and its dynamic evolution was estimated through a Bayesian sequential Monte Carlo approach (PF). Main results. We showed the feasibility of the procedure and the improvements in both electrical and hemodynamic brain activity reconstruction when using the PF on combined EEG and fNIRS measurements. Significance. The investigated procedure allows one to combine the information provided by the two methodologies, and, by taking advantage of a physical model of the coupling between electrical and hemodynamic response, to obtain a better estimate of brain activity evolution. Despite the high computational demand, application of such an approach to in vivo recordings could fully exploit the advantages of this combined brain imaging technology.

A Bayesian framework for early risk prediction in traumatic brain injury

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaganti, Shikha; Plassard, Andrew J.; Wilson, Laura; Smith, Miya A.; Patel, Mayur B.; Landman, Bennett A.

2016-03-01

Early detection of risk is critical in determining the course of treatment in traumatic brain injury (TBI). Computed tomography (CT) acquired at admission has shown latent prognostic value in prior studies; however, no robust clinical risk predictions have been achieved based on the imaging data in large-scale TBI analysis. The major challenge lies in the lack of consistent and complete medical records for patients, and an inherent bias associated with the limited number of patients samples with high-risk outcomes in available TBI datasets. Herein, we propose a Bayesian framework with mutual information-based forward feature selection to handle this type of data. Using multi-atlas segmentation, 154 image-based features (capturing intensity, volume and texture) were computed over 22 ROIs in 1791 CT scans. These features were combined with 14 clinical parameters and converted into risk likelihood scores using Bayes modeling. We explore the prediction power of the image features versus the clinical measures for various risk outcomes. The imaging data alone were more predictive of outcomes than the clinical data (including Marshall CT classification) for discharge disposition with an area under the curve of 0.81 vs. 0.67, but less predictive than clinical data for discharge Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score with an area under the curve of 0.65 vs. 0.85. However, in both cases, combining imaging and clinical data increased the combined area under the curve with 0.86 for discharge disposition and 0.88 for discharge GCS score. In conclusion, CT data have meaningful prognostic value for TBI patients beyond what is captured in clinical measures and the Marshall CT classification.

Neural network modeling and an uncertainty analysis in Bayesian framework: A case study from the KTB borehole site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maiti, Saumen; Tiwari, Ram Krishna

2010-10-01

A new probabilistic approach based on the concept of Bayesian neural network (BNN) learning theory is proposed for decoding litho-facies boundaries from well-log data. We show that how a multi-layer-perceptron neural network model can be employed in Bayesian framework to classify changes in litho-log successions. The method is then applied to the German Continental Deep Drilling Program (KTB) well-log data for classification and uncertainty estimation in the litho-facies boundaries. In this framework, a posteriori distribution of network parameter is estimated via the principle of Bayesian probabilistic theory, and an objective function is minimized following the scaled conjugate gradient optimization scheme. For the model development, we inflict a suitable criterion, which provides probabilistic information by emulating different combinations of synthetic data. Uncertainty in the relationship between the data and the model space is appropriately taken care by assuming a Gaussian a priori distribution of networks parameters (e.g., synaptic weights and biases). Prior to applying the new method to the real KTB data, we tested the proposed method on synthetic examples to examine the sensitivity of neural network hyperparameters in prediction. Within this framework, we examine stability and efficiency of this new probabilistic approach using different kinds of synthetic data assorted with different level of correlated noise. Our data analysis suggests that the designed network topology based on the Bayesian paradigm is steady up to nearly 40% correlated noise; however, adding more noise (˜50% or more) degrades the results. We perform uncertainty analyses on training, validation, and test data sets with and devoid of intrinsic noise by making the Gaussian approximation of the a posteriori distribution about the peak model. We present a standard deviation error-map at the network output corresponding to the three types of the litho-facies present over the entire litho-section of the KTB. The comparisons of maximum a posteriori geological sections constructed here, based on the maximum a posteriori probability distribution, with the available geological information and the existing geophysical findings suggest that the BNN results reveal some additional finer details in the KTB borehole data at certain depths, which appears to be of some geological significance. We also demonstrate that the proposed BNN approach is superior to the conventional artificial neural network in terms of both avoiding "over-fitting" and aiding uncertainty estimation, which are vital for meaningful interpretation of geophysical records. Our analyses demonstrate that the BNN-based approach renders a robust means for the classification of complex changes in the litho-facies successions and thus could provide a useful guide for understanding the crustal inhomogeneity and the structural discontinuity in many other tectonically complex regions.

An approach based on Hierarchical Bayesian Graphical Models for measurement interpretation under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skataric, Maja; Bose, Sandip; Zeroug, Smaine; Tilke, Peter

2017-02-01

It is not uncommon in the field of non-destructive evaluation that multiple measurements encompassing a variety of modalities are available for analysis and interpretation for determining the underlying states of nature of the materials or parts being tested. Despite and sometimes due to the richness of data, significant challenges arise in the interpretation manifested as ambiguities and inconsistencies due to various uncertain factors in the physical properties (inputs), environment, measurement device properties, human errors, and the measurement data (outputs). Most of these uncertainties cannot be described by any rigorous mathematical means, and modeling of all possibilities is usually infeasible for many real time applications. In this work, we will discuss an approach based on Hierarchical Bayesian Graphical Models (HBGM) for the improved interpretation of complex (multi-dimensional) problems with parametric uncertainties that lack usable physical models. In this setting, the input space of the physical properties is specified through prior distributions based on domain knowledge and expertise, which are represented as Gaussian mixtures to model the various possible scenarios of interest for non-destructive testing applications. Forward models are then used offline to generate the expected distribution of the proposed measurements which are used to train a hierarchical Bayesian network. In Bayesian analysis, all model parameters are treated as random variables, and inference of the parameters is made on the basis of posterior distribution given the observed data. Learned parameters of the posterior distribution obtained after the training can therefore be used to build an efficient classifier for differentiating new observed data in real time on the basis of pre-trained models. We will illustrate the implementation of the HBGM approach to ultrasonic measurements used for cement evaluation of cased wells in the oil industry.

Bayesian analysis for erosion modelling of sediments in combined sewer systems.

PubMed

Kanso, A; Chebbo, G; Tassin, B

2005-01-01

Previous research has confirmed that the sediments at the bed of combined sewer systems are the main source of particulate and organic pollution during rain events contributing to combined sewer overflows. However, existing urban stormwater models utilize inappropriate sediment transport formulas initially developed from alluvial hydrodynamics. Recently, a model has been formulated and profoundly assessed based on laboratory experiments to simulate the erosion of sediments in sewer pipes taking into account the increase in strength with depth in the weak layer of deposits. In order to objectively evaluate this model, this paper presents a Bayesian analysis of the model using field data collected in sewer pipes in Paris under known hydraulic conditions. The test has been performed using a MCMC sampling method for calibration and uncertainty assessment. Results demonstrate the capacity of the model to reproduce erosion as a direct response to the increase in bed shear stress. This is due to the model description of the erosional strength in the deposits and to the shape of the measured bed shear stress. However, large uncertainties in some of the model parameters suggest that the model could be over-parameterised and necessitates a large amount of informative data for its calibration.

Drug delivery optimization through Bayesian networks.

PubMed Central

Bellazzi, R.

1992-01-01

This paper describes how Bayesian Networks can be used in combination with compartmental models to plan Recombinant Human Erythropoietin (r-HuEPO) delivery in the treatment of anemia of chronic uremic patients. Past measurements of hematocrit or hemoglobin concentration in a patient during the therapy can be exploited to adjust the parameters of a compartmental model of the erythropoiesis. This adaptive process allows more accurate patient-specific predictions, and hence a more rational dosage planning. We describe a drug delivery optimization protocol, based on our approach. Some results obtained on real data are presented. PMID:1482938

Improved head direction command classification using an optimised Bayesian neural network.

PubMed

Nguyen, Son T; Nguyen, Hung T; Taylor, Philip B; Middleton, James

2006-01-01

Assistive technologies have recently emerged to improve the quality of life of severely disabled people by enhancing their independence in daily activities. Since many of those individuals have limited or non-existing control from the neck downward, alternative hands-free input modalities have become very important for these people to access assistive devices. In hands-free control, head movement has been proved to be a very effective user interface as it can provide a comfortable, reliable and natural way to access the device. Recently, neural networks have been shown to be useful not only for real-time pattern recognition but also for creating user-adaptive models. Since multi-layer perceptron neural networks trained using standard back-propagation may cause poor generalisation, the Bayesian technique has been proposed to improve the generalisation and robustness of these networks. This paper describes the use of Bayesian neural networks in developing a hands-free wheelchair control system. The experimental results show that with the optimised architecture, classification Bayesian neural networks can detect head commands of wheelchair users accurately irrespective to their levels of injuries.

Bayesian Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (BART) Code and Application to WASP-43b

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blecic, Jasmina; Harrington, Joseph; Cubillos, Patricio; Bowman, Oliver; Rojo, Patricio; Stemm, Madison; Lust, Nathaniel B.; Challener, Ryan; Foster, Austin James; Foster, Andrew S.; Blumenthal, Sarah D.; Bruce, Dylan

2016-01-01

We present a new open-source Bayesian radiative-transfer framework, Bayesian Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (BART, https://github.com/exosports/BART), and its application to WASP-43b. BART initializes a model for the atmospheric retrieval calculation, generates thousands of theoretical model spectra using parametrized pressure and temperature profiles and line-by-line radiative-transfer calculation, and employs a statistical package to compare the models with the observations. It consists of three self-sufficient modules available to the community under the reproducible-research license, the Thermochemical Equilibrium Abundances module (TEA, https://github.com/dzesmin/TEA, Blecic et al. 2015}, the radiative-transfer module (Transit, https://github.com/exosports/transit), and the Multi-core Markov-chain Monte Carlo statistical module (MCcubed, https://github.com/pcubillos/MCcubed, Cubillos et al. 2015). We applied BART on all available WASP-43b secondary eclipse data from the space- and ground-based observations constraining the temperature-pressure profile and molecular abundances of the dayside atmosphere of WASP-43b. This work was supported by NASA Planetary Atmospheres grant NNX12AI69G and NASA Astrophysics Data Analysis Program grant NNX13AF38G. JB holds a NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship.

Spatio Temporal EEG Source Imaging with the Hierarchical Bayesian Elastic Net and Elitist Lasso Models

PubMed Central

Paz-Linares, Deirel; Vega-Hernández, Mayrim; Rojas-López, Pedro A.; Valdés-Hernández, Pedro A.; Martínez-Montes, Eduardo; Valdés-Sosa, Pedro A.

2017-01-01

The estimation of EEG generating sources constitutes an Inverse Problem (IP) in Neuroscience. This is an ill-posed problem due to the non-uniqueness of the solution and regularization or prior information is needed to undertake Electrophysiology Source Imaging. Structured Sparsity priors can be attained through combinations of (L1 norm-based) and (L2 norm-based) constraints such as the Elastic Net (ENET) and Elitist Lasso (ELASSO) models. The former model is used to find solutions with a small number of smooth nonzero patches, while the latter imposes different degrees of sparsity simultaneously along different dimensions of the spatio-temporal matrix solutions. Both models have been addressed within the penalized regression approach, where the regularization parameters are selected heuristically, leading usually to non-optimal and computationally expensive solutions. The existing Bayesian formulation of ENET allows hyperparameter learning, but using the computationally intensive Monte Carlo/Expectation Maximization methods, which makes impractical its application to the EEG IP. While the ELASSO have not been considered before into the Bayesian context. In this work, we attempt to solve the EEG IP using a Bayesian framework for ENET and ELASSO models. We propose a Structured Sparse Bayesian Learning algorithm based on combining the Empirical Bayes and the iterative coordinate descent procedures to estimate both the parameters and hyperparameters. Using realistic simulations and avoiding the inverse crime we illustrate that our methods are able to recover complicated source setups more accurately and with a more robust estimation of the hyperparameters and behavior under different sparsity scenarios than classical LORETA, ENET and LASSO Fusion solutions. We also solve the EEG IP using data from a visual attention experiment, finding more interpretable neurophysiological patterns with our methods. The Matlab codes used in this work, including Simulations, Methods, Quality Measures and Visualization Routines are freely available in a public website. PMID:29200994

Spatio Temporal EEG Source Imaging with the Hierarchical Bayesian Elastic Net and Elitist Lasso Models.

PubMed

Paz-Linares, Deirel; Vega-Hernández, Mayrim; Rojas-López, Pedro A; Valdés-Hernández, Pedro A; Martínez-Montes, Eduardo; Valdés-Sosa, Pedro A

2017-01-01

The estimation of EEG generating sources constitutes an Inverse Problem (IP) in Neuroscience. This is an ill-posed problem due to the non-uniqueness of the solution and regularization or prior information is needed to undertake Electrophysiology Source Imaging. Structured Sparsity priors can be attained through combinations of (L1 norm-based) and (L2 norm-based) constraints such as the Elastic Net (ENET) and Elitist Lasso (ELASSO) models. The former model is used to find solutions with a small number of smooth nonzero patches, while the latter imposes different degrees of sparsity simultaneously along different dimensions of the spatio-temporal matrix solutions. Both models have been addressed within the penalized regression approach, where the regularization parameters are selected heuristically, leading usually to non-optimal and computationally expensive solutions. The existing Bayesian formulation of ENET allows hyperparameter learning, but using the computationally intensive Monte Carlo/Expectation Maximization methods, which makes impractical its application to the EEG IP. While the ELASSO have not been considered before into the Bayesian context. In this work, we attempt to solve the EEG IP using a Bayesian framework for ENET and ELASSO models. We propose a Structured Sparse Bayesian Learning algorithm based on combining the Empirical Bayes and the iterative coordinate descent procedures to estimate both the parameters and hyperparameters. Using realistic simulations and avoiding the inverse crime we illustrate that our methods are able to recover complicated source setups more accurately and with a more robust estimation of the hyperparameters and behavior under different sparsity scenarios than classical LORETA, ENET and LASSO Fusion solutions. We also solve the EEG IP using data from a visual attention experiment, finding more interpretable neurophysiological patterns with our methods. The Matlab codes used in this work, including Simulations, Methods, Quality Measures and Visualization Routines are freely available in a public website.

Comprehensive evaluation of Ensemble Multi-Satellite Precipitation Dataset using the Dynamic Bayesian Model Averaging scheme over the Tibetan plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Yingzhao; Yang, Yuan; Han, Zhongying; Tang, Guoqiang; Maguire, Lane; Chu, Zhigang; Hong, Yang

2018-01-01

The objective of this study is to comprehensively evaluate the new Ensemble Multi-Satellite Precipitation Dataset using the Dynamic Bayesian Model Averaging scheme (EMSPD-DBMA) at daily and 0.25° scales from 2001 to 2015 over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Error analysis against gauge observations revealed that EMSPD-DBMA captured the spatiotemporal pattern of daily precipitation with an acceptable Correlation Coefficient (CC) of 0.53 and a Relative Bias (RB) of -8.28%. Moreover, EMSPD-DBMA outperformed IMERG and GSMaP-MVK in almost all metrics in the summers of 2014 and 2015, with the lowest RB and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values of -2.88% and 8.01 mm/d, respectively. It also better reproduced the Probability Density Function (PDF) in terms of daily rainfall amount and estimated moderate and heavy rainfall better than both IMERG and GSMaP-MVK. Further, hydrological evaluation with the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) model in the Upper Yangtze River region indicated that the EMSPD-DBMA forced simulation showed satisfying hydrological performance in terms of streamflow prediction, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of Efficiency (NSE) values of 0.82 and 0.58, compared to gauge forced simulation (0.88 and 0.60) at the calibration and validation periods, respectively. EMSPD-DBMA also performed a greater fitness for peak flow simulation than a new Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation Version 2 (MSWEP V2) product, indicating a promising prospect of hydrological utility for the ensemble satellite precipitation data. This study belongs to early comprehensive evaluation of the blended multi-satellite precipitation data across the TP, which would be significant for improving the DBMA algorithm in regions with complex terrain.

Bayesian Model Averaging of Artificial Intelligence Models for Hydraulic Conductivity Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadiri, A.; Chitsazan, N.; Tsai, F. T.; Asghari Moghaddam, A.

2012-12-01

This research presents a Bayesian artificial intelligence model averaging (BAIMA) method that incorporates multiple artificial intelligence (AI) models to estimate hydraulic conductivity and evaluate estimation uncertainties. Uncertainty in the AI model outputs stems from error in model input as well as non-uniqueness in selecting different AI methods. Using one single AI model tends to bias the estimation and underestimate uncertainty. BAIMA employs Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique to address the issue of using one single AI model for estimation. BAIMA estimates hydraulic conductivity by averaging the outputs of AI models according to their model weights. In this study, the model weights were determined using the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) that follows the parsimony principle. BAIMA calculates the within-model variances to account for uncertainty propagation from input data to AI model output. Between-model variances are evaluated to account for uncertainty due to model non-uniqueness. We employed Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy logic (TS-FL), artificial neural network (ANN) and neurofuzzy (NF) to estimate hydraulic conductivity for the Tasuj plain aquifer, Iran. BAIMA combined three AI models and produced better fitting than individual models. While NF was expected to be the best AI model owing to its utilization of both TS-FL and ANN models, the NF model is nearly discarded by the parsimony principle. The TS-FL model and the ANN model showed equal importance although their hydraulic conductivity estimates were quite different. This resulted in significant between-model variances that are normally ignored by using one AI model.

Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

2016-08-01

Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

Multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression for prediction of random fields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parussini, L.; Venturi, D., E-mail: venturi@ucsc.edu; Perdikaris, P.

We propose a new multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression (GPR) approach for prediction of random fields based on observations of surrogate models or hierarchies of surrogate models. Our method builds upon recent work on recursive Bayesian techniques, in particular recursive co-kriging, and extends it to vector-valued fields and various types of covariances, including separable and non-separable ones. The framework we propose is general and can be used to perform uncertainty propagation and quantification in model-based simulations, multi-fidelity data fusion, and surrogate-based optimization. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed recursive GPR techniques through various examples. Specifically, we study the stochastic Burgersmore » equation and the stochastic Oberbeck–Boussinesq equations describing natural convection within a square enclosure. In both cases we find that the standard deviation of the Gaussian predictors as well as the absolute errors relative to benchmark stochastic solutions are very small, suggesting that the proposed multi-fidelity GPR approaches can yield highly accurate results.« less

CDMBE: A Case Description Model Based on Evidence

PubMed Central

Zhu, Jianlin; Yang, Xiaoping; Zhou, Jing

2015-01-01

By combining the advantages of argument map and Bayesian network, a case description model based on evidence (CDMBE), which is suitable to continental law system, is proposed to describe the criminal cases. The logic of the model adopts the credibility logical reason and gets evidence-based reasoning quantitatively based on evidences. In order to consist with practical inference rules, five types of relationship and a set of rules are defined to calculate the credibility of assumptions based on the credibility and supportability of the related evidences. Experiments show that the model can get users' ideas into a figure and the results calculated from CDMBE are in line with those from Bayesian model. PMID:26421006

BayeSED: A General Approach to Fitting the Spectral Energy Distribution of Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Yunkun; Han, Zhanwen

2014-11-01

We present a newly developed version of BayeSED, a general Bayesian approach to the spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting of galaxies. The new BayeSED code has been systematically tested on a mock sample of galaxies. The comparison between the estimated and input values of the parameters shows that BayeSED can recover the physical parameters of galaxies reasonably well. We then applied BayeSED to interpret the SEDs of a large Ks -selected sample of galaxies in the COSMOS/UltraVISTA field with stellar population synthesis models. Using the new BayeSED code, a Bayesian model comparison of stellar population synthesis models has been performed for the first time. We found that the 2003 model by Bruzual & Charlot, statistically speaking, has greater Bayesian evidence than the 2005 model by Maraston for the Ks -selected sample. In addition, while setting the stellar metallicity as a free parameter obviously increases the Bayesian evidence of both models, varying the initial mass function has a notable effect only on the Maraston model. Meanwhile, the physical parameters estimated with BayeSED are found to be generally consistent with those obtained using the popular grid-based FAST code, while the former parameters exhibit more natural distributions. Based on the estimated physical parameters of the galaxies in the sample, we qualitatively classified the galaxies in the sample into five populations that may represent galaxies at different evolution stages or in different environments. We conclude that BayeSED could be a reliable and powerful tool for investigating the formation and evolution of galaxies from the rich multi-wavelength observations currently available. A binary version of the BayeSED code parallelized with Message Passing Interface is publicly available at https://bitbucket.org/hanyk/bayesed.

BayeSED: A GENERAL APPROACH TO FITTING THE SPECTRAL ENERGY DISTRIBUTION OF GALAXIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Han, Yunkun; Han, Zhanwen, E-mail: hanyk@ynao.ac.cn, E-mail: zhanwenhan@ynao.ac.cn

2014-11-01

We present a newly developed version of BayeSED, a general Bayesian approach to the spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting of galaxies. The new BayeSED code has been systematically tested on a mock sample of galaxies. The comparison between the estimated and input values of the parameters shows that BayeSED can recover the physical parameters of galaxies reasonably well. We then applied BayeSED to interpret the SEDs of a large K{sub s} -selected sample of galaxies in the COSMOS/UltraVISTA field with stellar population synthesis models. Using the new BayeSED code, a Bayesian model comparison of stellar population synthesis models has beenmore » performed for the first time. We found that the 2003 model by Bruzual and Charlot, statistically speaking, has greater Bayesian evidence than the 2005 model by Maraston for the K{sub s} -selected sample. In addition, while setting the stellar metallicity as a free parameter obviously increases the Bayesian evidence of both models, varying the initial mass function has a notable effect only on the Maraston model. Meanwhile, the physical parameters estimated with BayeSED are found to be generally consistent with those obtained using the popular grid-based FAST code, while the former parameters exhibit more natural distributions. Based on the estimated physical parameters of the galaxies in the sample, we qualitatively classified the galaxies in the sample into five populations that may represent galaxies at different evolution stages or in different environments. We conclude that BayeSED could be a reliable and powerful tool for investigating the formation and evolution of galaxies from the rich multi-wavelength observations currently available. A binary version of the BayeSED code parallelized with Message Passing Interface is publicly available at https://bitbucket.org/hanyk/bayesed.« less

Variational Bayesian Learning for Wavelet Independent Component Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roussos, E.; Roberts, S.; Daubechies, I.

2005-11-01

In an exploratory approach to data analysis, it is often useful to consider the observations as generated from a set of latent generators or "sources" via a generally unknown mapping. For the noisy overcomplete case, where we have more sources than observations, the problem becomes extremely ill-posed. Solutions to such inverse problems can, in many cases, be achieved by incorporating prior knowledge about the problem, captured in the form of constraints. This setting is a natural candidate for the application of the Bayesian methodology, allowing us to incorporate "soft" constraints in a natural manner. The work described in this paper is mainly driven by problems in functional magnetic resonance imaging of the brain, for the neuro-scientific goal of extracting relevant "maps" from the data. This can be stated as a `blind' source separation problem. Recent experiments in the field of neuroscience show that these maps are sparse, in some appropriate sense. The separation problem can be solved by independent component analysis (ICA), viewed as a technique for seeking sparse components, assuming appropriate distributions for the sources. We derive a hybrid wavelet-ICA model, transforming the signals into a domain where the modeling assumption of sparsity of the coefficients with respect to a dictionary is natural. We follow a graphical modeling formalism, viewing ICA as a probabilistic generative model. We use hierarchical source and mixing models and apply Bayesian inference to the problem. This allows us to perform model selection in order to infer the complexity of the representation, as well as automatic denoising. Since exact inference and learning in such a model is intractable, we follow a variational Bayesian mean-field approach in the conjugate-exponential family of distributions, for efficient unsupervised learning in multi-dimensional settings. The performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated on some representative experiments.

Bayesian estimation of optical properties of the human head via 3D structural MRI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnett, Alexander H.; Culver, Joseph P.; Sorensen, A. Gregory; Dale, Anders M.; Boas, David A.

2003-10-01

Knowledge of the baseline optical properties of the tissues of the human head is essential for absolute cerebral oximetry, and for quantitative studies of brain activation. In this work we numerically model the utility of signals from a small 6-optode time-resolved diffuse optical tomographic apparatus for inferring baseline scattering and absorption coefficients of the scalp, skull and brain, when complete geometric information is available from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). We use an optical model where MRI-segmented tissues are assumed homogeneous. We introduce a noise model capturing both photon shot noise and forward model numerical accuracy, and use Bayesian inference to predict errorbars and correlations on the measurments. We also sample from the full posterior distribution using Markov chain Monte Carlo. We conclude that ~ 106 detected photons are sufficient to measure the brain"s scattering and absorption to a few percent. We present preliminary results using a fast multi-layer slab model, comparing the case when layer thicknesses are known versus unknown.

A phylogenetic study of Laeliinae (Orchidaceae) based on combined nuclear and plastid DNA sequences

PubMed Central

van den Berg, Cássio; Higgins, Wesley E.; Dressler, Robert L.; Whitten, W. Mark; Soto-Arenas, Miguel A.; Chase, Mark W.

2009-01-01

Background and Aims Laeliinae are a neotropical orchid subtribe with approx. 1500 species in 50 genera. In this study, an attempt is made to assess generic alliances based on molecular phylogenetic analysis of DNA sequence data. Methods Six DNA datasets were gathered: plastid trnL intron, trnL-F spacer, matK gene and trnK introns upstream and dowstream from matK and nuclear ITS rDNA. Data were analysed with maximum parsimony (MP) and Bayesian analysis with mixed models (BA). Key Results Although relationships between Laeliinae and outgroups are well supported, within the subtribe sequence variation is low considering the broad taxonomic range covered. Localized incongruence between the ITS and plastid trees was found. A combined tree followed the ITS trees more closely, but the levels of support obtained with MP were low. The Bayesian analysis recovered more well-supported nodes. The trees from combined MP and BA allowed eight generic alliances to be recognized within Laeliinae, all of which show trends in morphological characters but lack unambiguous synapomorphies. Conclusions By using combined plastid and nuclear DNA data in conjunction with mixed-models Bayesian inference, it is possible to delimit smaller groups within Laeliinae and discuss general patterns of pollination and hybridization compatibility. Furthermore, these small groups can now be used for further detailed studies to explain morphological evolution and diversification patterns within the subtribe. PMID:19423551

Bayesian Computation for Log-Gaussian Cox Processes: A Comparative Analysis of Methods

PubMed Central

Teng, Ming; Nathoo, Farouk S.; Johnson, Timothy D.

2017-01-01

The Log-Gaussian Cox Process is a commonly used model for the analysis of spatial point pattern data. Fitting this model is difficult because of its doubly-stochastic property, i.e., it is an hierarchical combination of a Poisson process at the first level and a Gaussian Process at the second level. Various methods have been proposed to estimate such a process, including traditional likelihood-based approaches as well as Bayesian methods. We focus here on Bayesian methods and several approaches that have been considered for model fitting within this framework, including Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, the Integrated nested Laplace approximation, and Variational Bayes. We consider these approaches and make comparisons with respect to statistical and computational efficiency. These comparisons are made through several simulation studies as well as through two applications, the first examining ecological data and the second involving neuroimaging data. PMID:29200537

Bayesian Cue Integration as a Developmental Outcome of Reward Mediated Learning

PubMed Central

Weisswange, Thomas H.; Rothkopf, Constantin A.; Rodemann, Tobias; Triesch, Jochen

2011-01-01

Average human behavior in cue combination tasks is well predicted by Bayesian inference models. As this capability is acquired over developmental timescales, the question arises, how it is learned. Here we investigated whether reward dependent learning, that is well established at the computational, behavioral, and neuronal levels, could contribute to this development. It is shown that a model free reinforcement learning algorithm can indeed learn to do cue integration, i.e. weight uncertain cues according to their respective reliabilities and even do so if reliabilities are changing. We also consider the case of causal inference where multimodal signals can originate from one or multiple separate objects and should not always be integrated. In this case, the learner is shown to develop a behavior that is closest to Bayesian model averaging. We conclude that reward mediated learning could be a driving force for the development of cue integration and causal inference. PMID:21750717

Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging in Endogenous Variable Models*

PubMed Central

Lenkoski, Alex; Eicher, Theo S.; Raftery, Adrian E.

2013-01-01

Economic modeling in the presence of endogeneity is subject to model uncertainty at both the instrument and covariate level. We propose a Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging (2SBMA) methodology that extends the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) estimator. By constructing a Two-Stage Unit Information Prior in the endogenous variable model, we are able to efficiently combine established methods for addressing model uncertainty in regression models with the classic technique of 2SLS. To assess the validity of instruments in the 2SBMA context, we develop Bayesian tests of the identification restriction that are based on model averaged posterior predictive p-values. A simulation study showed that 2SBMA has the ability to recover structure in both the instrument and covariate set, and substantially improves the sharpness of resulting coefficient estimates in comparison to 2SLS using the full specification in an automatic fashion. Due to the increased parsimony of the 2SBMA estimate, the Bayesian Sargan test had a power of 50 percent in detecting a violation of the exogeneity assumption, while the method based on 2SLS using the full specification had negligible power. We apply our approach to the problem of development accounting, and find support not only for institutions, but also for geography and integration as development determinants, once both model uncertainty and endogeneity have been jointly addressed. PMID:24223471

Multi-decadal trend and space-time variability of sea level over the Indian Ocean since the 1950s: impact of decadal climate modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, W.; Stammer, D.; Meehl, G. A.; Hu, A.; Sienz, F.

2016-12-01

Sea level varies on decadal and multi-decadal timescales over the Indian Ocean. The variations are not spatially uniform, and can deviate considerably from the global mean sea level rise (SLR) due to various geophysical processes. One of these processes is the change of ocean circulation, which can be partly attributed to natural internal modes of climate variability. Over the Indian Ocean, the most influential climate modes on decadal and multi-decadal timescales are the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and decadal variability of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). Here, we first analyze observational datasets to investigate the impacts of IPO and IOD on spatial patterns of decadal and interdecadal (hereafter decal) sea level variability & multi-decadal trend over the Indian Ocean since the 1950s, using a new statistical approach of Bayesian Dynamical Linear regression Model (DLM). The Bayesian DLM overcomes the limitation of "time-constant (static)" regression coefficients in conventional multiple linear regression model, by allowing the coefficients to vary with time and therefore measuring "time-evolving (dynamical)" relationship between climate modes and sea level. For the multi-decadal sea level trend since the 1950s, our results show that climate modes and non-climate modes (the part that cannot be explained by climate modes) have comparable contributions in magnitudes but with different spatial patterns, with each dominating different regions of the Indian Ocean. For decadal variability, climate modes are the major contributors for sea level variations over most region of the tropical Indian Ocean. The relative importance of IPO and decadal variability of IOD, however, varies spatially. For example, while IOD decadal variability dominates IPO in the eastern equatorial basin (85E-100E, 5S-5N), IPO dominates IOD in causing sea level variations in the tropical southwest Indian Ocean (45E-65E, 12S-2S). To help decipher the possible contribution of external forcing to the multi-decadal sea level trend and decadal variability, we also analyze the model outputs from NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Experiments, and compare the results with our observational analyses.

Parameterization of aquatic ecosystem functioning and its natural variation: Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of plankton food web dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norros, Veera; Laine, Marko; Lignell, Risto; Thingstad, Frede

2017-10-01

Methods for extracting empirically and theoretically sound parameter values are urgently needed in aquatic ecosystem modelling to describe key flows and their variation in the system. Here, we compare three Bayesian formulations for mechanistic model parameterization that differ in their assumptions about the variation in parameter values between various datasets: 1) global analysis - no variation, 2) separate analysis - independent variation and 3) hierarchical analysis - variation arising from a shared distribution defined by hyperparameters. We tested these methods, using computer-generated and empirical data, coupled with simplified and reasonably realistic plankton food web models, respectively. While all methods were adequate, the simulated example demonstrated that a well-designed hierarchical analysis can result in the most accurate and precise parameter estimates and predictions, due to its ability to combine information across datasets. However, our results also highlighted sensitivity to hyperparameter prior distributions as an important caveat of hierarchical analysis. In the more complex empirical example, hierarchical analysis was able to combine precise identification of parameter values with reasonably good predictive performance, although the ranking of the methods was less straightforward. We conclude that hierarchical Bayesian analysis is a promising tool for identifying key ecosystem-functioning parameters and their variation from empirical datasets.

Radiation dose reduction in computed tomography perfusion using spatial-temporal Bayesian methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Ruogu; Raj, Ashish; Chen, Tsuhan; Sanelli, Pina C.

2012-03-01

In current computed tomography (CT) examinations, the associated X-ray radiation dose is of significant concern to patients and operators, especially CT perfusion (CTP) imaging that has higher radiation dose due to its cine scanning technique. A simple and cost-effective means to perform the examinations is to lower the milliampere-seconds (mAs) parameter as low as reasonably achievable in data acquisition. However, lowering the mAs parameter will unavoidably increase data noise and degrade CT perfusion maps greatly if no adequate noise control is applied during image reconstruction. To capture the essential dynamics of CT perfusion, a simple spatial-temporal Bayesian method that uses a piecewise parametric model of the residual function is used, and then the model parameters are estimated from a Bayesian formulation of prior smoothness constraints on perfusion parameters. From the fitted residual function, reliable CTP parameter maps are obtained from low dose CT data. The merit of this scheme exists in the combination of analytical piecewise residual function with Bayesian framework using a simpler prior spatial constrain for CT perfusion application. On a dataset of 22 patients, this dynamic spatial-temporal Bayesian model yielded an increase in signal-tonoise-ratio (SNR) of 78% and a decrease in mean-square-error (MSE) of 40% at low dose radiation of 43mA.

The Approximate Bayesian Computation methods in the localization of the atmospheric contamination source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopka, P.; Wawrzynczak, A.; Borysiewicz, M.

2015-09-01

In many areas of application, a central problem is a solution to the inverse problem, especially estimation of the unknown model parameters to model the underlying dynamics of a physical system precisely. In this situation, the Bayesian inference is a powerful tool to combine observed data with prior knowledge to gain the probability distribution of searched parameters. We have applied the modern methodology named Sequential Approximate Bayesian Computation (S-ABC) to the problem of tracing the atmospheric contaminant source. The ABC is technique commonly used in the Bayesian analysis of complex models and dynamic system. Sequential methods can significantly increase the efficiency of the ABC. In the presented algorithm, the input data are the on-line arriving concentrations of released substance registered by distributed sensor network from OVER-LAND ATMOSPHERIC DISPERSION (OLAD) experiment. The algorithm output are the probability distributions of a contamination source parameters i.e. its particular location, release rate, speed and direction of the movement, start time and duration. The stochastic approach presented in this paper is completely general and can be used in other fields where the parameters of the model bet fitted to the observable data should be found.

Estimating carnivore community structures

PubMed Central

Jiménez, José; Nuñez-Arjona, Juan Carlos; Rueda, Carmen; González, Luis Mariano; García-Domínguez, Francisco; Muñoz-Igualada, Jaime; López-Bao, José Vicente

2017-01-01

Obtaining reliable estimates of the structure of carnivore communities is of paramount importance because of their ecological roles, ecosystem services and impact on biodiversity conservation, but they are still scarce. This information is key for carnivore management: to build support for and acceptance of management decisions and policies it is crucial that those decisions are based on robust and high quality information. Here, we combined camera and live-trapping surveys, as well as telemetry data, with spatially-explicit Bayesian models to show the usefulness of an integrated multi-method and multi-model approach to monitor carnivore community structures. Our methods account for imperfect detection and effectively deal with species with non-recognizable individuals. In our Mediterranean study system, the terrestrial carnivore community was dominated by red foxes (0.410 individuals/km2); Egyptian mongooses, feral cats and stone martens were similarly abundant (0.252, 0.249 and 0.240 individuals/km2, respectively), whereas badgers and common genets were the least common (0.130 and 0.087 individuals/km2, respectively). The precision of density estimates improved by incorporating multiple covariates, device operation, and accounting for the removal of individuals. The approach presented here has substantial implications for decision-making since it allows, for instance, the evaluation, in a standard and comparable way, of community responses to interventions. PMID:28120871

Competing risk models in reliability systems, a weibull distribution model with bayesian analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iskandar, Ismed; Satria Gondokaryono, Yudi

2016-02-01

In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range between the true value and the maximum likelihood estimated value lines.

Hiereachical Bayesian Model for Combining Geochemical and Geophysical Data for Environmental Applications Software

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Jinsong

2013-05-01

Development of a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of aqueous geochemical parameters associated with in-situ bioremediation using surface spectral induced polarization (SIP) data and borehole geochemical measurements collected during a bioremediation experiment at a uranium-contaminated site near Rifle, Colorado. The SIP data are first inverted for Cole-Cole parameters including chargeability, time constant, resistivity at the DC frequency and dependence factor, at each pixel of two-dimensional grids using a previously developed stochastic method. Correlations between the inverted Cole-Cole parameters and the wellbore-based groundwater chemistry measurements indicative of key metabolic processes within the aquifer (e.g. ferrous iron, sulfate, uranium)more » were established and used as a basis for petrophysical model development. The developed Bayesian model consists of three levels of statistical sub-models: 1) data model, providing links between geochemical and geophysical attributes, 2) process model, describing the spatial and temporal variability of geochemical properties in the subsurface system, and 3) parameter model, describing prior distributions of various parameters and initial conditions. The unknown parameters are estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. By combining the temporally distributed geochemical data with the spatially distributed geophysical data, we obtain the spatio-temporal distribution of ferrous iron, sulfate and sulfide, and their associated uncertainity information. The obtained results can be used to assess the efficacy of the bioremediation treatment over space and time and to constrain reactive transport models.« less

Association of spring-summer hydrology and meteorology with human West Nile virus infection in West Texas, USA, 2002-2016.

PubMed

Ukawuba, Israel; Shaman, Jeffrey

2018-04-04

The emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in the Western Hemisphere has motivated research into the processes contributing to the incidence and persistence of the disease in the region. Meteorology and hydrology are fundamental determinants of vector-borne disease transmission dynamics of a region. The availability of water influences the population dynamics of vector and host, while temperature impacts vector growth rates, feeding habits, and disease transmission potential. Characterization of the temporal pattern of environmental factors influencing WNV risk is crucial to broaden our understanding of local transmission dynamics and to inform efforts of control and surveillance. We used hydrologic, meteorological and WNV data from west Texas (2002-2016) to analyze the relationship between environmental conditions and annual human WNV infection. A Bayesian model averaging framework was used to evaluate the association of monthly environmental conditions with WNV infection. Findings indicate that wet conditions in the spring combined with dry and cool conditions in the summer are associated with increased annual WNV cases. Bayesian multi-model inference reveals monthly means of soil moisture, specific humidity and temperature to be the most important variables among predictors tested. Environmental conditions in March, June, July and August were the leading predictors in the best-fitting models. The results significantly link soil moisture and temperature in the spring and summer to WNV transmission risk. Wet spring in association with dry and cool summer was the temporal pattern best-describing WNV, regardless of year. Our findings also highlight that soil moisture may be a stronger predictor of annual WNV transmission than rainfall.

A Statistical Description of Neural Ensemble Dynamics

PubMed Central

Long, John D.; Carmena, Jose M.

2011-01-01

The growing use of multi-channel neural recording techniques in behaving animals has produced rich datasets that hold immense potential for advancing our understanding of how the brain mediates behavior. One limitation of these techniques is they do not provide important information about the underlying anatomical connections among the recorded neurons within an ensemble. Inferring these connections is often intractable because the set of possible interactions grows exponentially with ensemble size. This is a fundamental challenge one confronts when interpreting these data. Unfortunately, the combination of expert knowledge and ensemble data is often insufficient for selecting a unique model of these interactions. Our approach shifts away from modeling the network diagram of the ensemble toward analyzing changes in the dynamics of the ensemble as they relate to behavior. Our contribution consists of adapting techniques from signal processing and Bayesian statistics to track the dynamics of ensemble data on time-scales comparable with behavior. We employ a Bayesian estimator to weigh prior information against the available ensemble data, and use an adaptive quantization technique to aggregate poorly estimated regions of the ensemble data space. Importantly, our method is capable of detecting changes in both the magnitude and structure of correlations among neurons missed by firing rate metrics. We show that this method is scalable across a wide range of time-scales and ensemble sizes. Lastly, the performance of this method on both simulated and real ensemble data is used to demonstrate its utility. PMID:22319486

Correlation Between Hierarchical Bayesian and Aerosol ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Tools to estimate PM2.5 mass have expanded in recent years, and now include: 1) stationary monitor readings, 2) Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model estimates, 3) Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) estimates from combined stationary monitor readings and CMAQ model output; and, 4) calibrated Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) readings from two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spetroradiometer (MODIS) units on National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Terra and Aqua satellites. Case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression were used to determine concentration response (CR) functions for three different PM2.5 levels on asthma emergency department (ED) visits and acute myocardial infarction (MI) inpatient hospitalizations in ninety-nine, 12 km2 grids in Baltimore, MD (2005 data). HB analyses for asthma ED visits produced significant results at 3-day lags for the main effect (OR=1.002, 95% CI=1.000-1.005), and two effect modifiers for females (OR=1.003, 95% CI=1.000-1.006), and non-Caucasian/non-African American persons (OR=1.010, 95% CI=1.001-1.019). HB analyses for acute MI inpatient hospitalizations also consistently produced a significant outcome for persons of other race (OR=1.031, 95% CI=1.006-1.056). Correlation coefficients computed between stationary monitor and satellite AOD PM2.5 values were significant for both asthma (rxy=0.944) and acute MI (rxy=0.940). Both monitor and AOD PM2.5 values were higher in February and June through Aug

Interacting agricultural pests and their effect on crop yield: application of a Bayesian decision theory approach to the joint management of Bromus tectorum and Cephus cinctus.

PubMed

Keren, Ilai N; Menalled, Fabian D; Weaver, David K; Robison-Cox, James F

2015-01-01

Worldwide, the landscape homogeneity of extensive monocultures that characterizes conventional agriculture has resulted in the development of specialized and interacting multitrophic pest complexes. While integrated pest management emphasizes the need to consider the ecological context where multiple species coexist, management recommendations are often based on single-species tactics. This approach may not provide satisfactory solutions when confronted with the complex interactions occurring between organisms at the same or different trophic levels. Replacement of the single-species management model with more sophisticated, multi-species programs requires an understanding of the direct and indirect interactions occurring between the crop and all categories of pests. We evaluated a modeling framework to make multi-pest management decisions taking into account direct and indirect interactions among species belonging to different trophic levels. We adopted a Bayesian decision theory approach in combination with path analysis to evaluate interactions between Bromus tectorum (downy brome, cheatgrass) and Cephus cinctus (wheat stem sawfly) in wheat (Triticum aestivum) systems. We assessed their joint responses to weed management tactics, seeding rates, and cultivar tolerance to insect stem boring or competition. Our results indicated that C. cinctus oviposition behavior varied as a function of B. tectorum pressure. Crop responses were more readily explained by the joint effects of management tactics on both categories of pests and their interactions than just by the direct impact of any particular management scheme on yield. In accordance, a C. cinctus tolerant variety should be planted at a low seeding rate under high insect pressure. However as B. tectorum levels increase, the C. cinctus tolerant variety should be replaced by a competitive and drought tolerant cultivar at high seeding rates despite C. cinctus infestation. This study exemplifies the necessity of accounting for direct and indirect biological interactions occurring within agroecosystems and propagating this information from the statistical analysis stage to the management stage.

Bayesian evidences for dark energy models in light of current observational data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lonappan, Anto. I.; Kumar, Sumit; Ruchika; Dinda, Bikash R.; Sen, Anjan A.

2018-02-01

We do a comprehensive study of the Bayesian evidences for a large number of dark energy models using a combination of latest cosmological data from SNIa, CMB, BAO, strong lensing time delay, growth measurements, measurements of Hubble parameter at different redshifts and measurements of angular diameter distance by Megamaser Cosmology Project. We consider a variety of scalar field models with different potentials as well as different parametrizations for the dark energy equation of state. Among 21 models that we consider in our study, we do not find strong evidences in favor of any evolving dark energy model compared to Λ CDM . For the evolving dark energy models, we show that purely nonphantom models have much better evidences compared to those models that allow both phantom and nonphantom behaviors. Canonical scalar field with exponential and tachyon field with square potential have highest evidences among all the models considered in this work. We also show that a combination of low redshift measurements decisively favors an accelerating Λ CDM model compared to a nonaccelerating power law model.

Examining Gene-Environment Interactions in Comorbid Depressive and Disruptive Behavior Disorders using a Bayesian Approach

PubMed Central

Adrian, Molly; Kiff, Cara; Glazner, Chris; Kohen, Ruth; Tracy, Julia Helen; Zhou, Chuan; McCauley, Elizabeth; Stoep, Ann Vander

2015-01-01

Objective The objective of this study was to apply a Bayesian statistical analytic approach that minimizes multiple testing problems to explore the combined effects of chronic low familial support and variants in 12 candidate genes on risk for a common and debilitating childhood mental health condition. Method Bayesian mixture modeling was used to examine gene by environment interactions among genetic variants and environmental factors (family support) associated in previous studies with the occurrence of comorbid depression and disruptive behavior disorders youth, using a sample of 255 children. Results One main effects, variants in the oxytocin receptor (OXTR, rs53576) was associated with increased risk for comorbid disorders. Two significant gene x environment and one signification gene x gene interaction emerged. Variants in the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor α5 subunit (CHRNA5, rs16969968) and in the glucocorticoid receptor chaperone protein FK506 binding protein 5 (FKBP5, rs4713902) interacted with chronic low family support in association with child mental health status. One gene x gene interaction, 5-HTTLPR variant of the serotonin transporter (SERT/SLC6A4) in combination with μ opioid receptor (OPRM1, rs1799971) was associated with comorbid depression and conduct problems. Conclusions Results indicate that Bayesian modeling is a feasible strategy for conducting behavioral genetics research. This approach, combined with an optimized genetic selection strategy (Vrieze, Iacono, & McGue, 2012), revealed genetic variants involved in stress regulation ( FKBP5, SERTxOPMR), social bonding (OXTR), and nicotine responsivity (CHRNA5) in predicting comorbid status. PMID:26228411

Spatial Rule-Based Modeling: A Method and Its Application to the Human Mitotic Kinetochore

PubMed Central

Ibrahim, Bashar; Henze, Richard; Gruenert, Gerd; Egbert, Matthew; Huwald, Jan; Dittrich, Peter

2013-01-01

A common problem in the analysis of biological systems is the combinatorial explosion that emerges from the complexity of multi-protein assemblies. Conventional formalisms, like differential equations, Boolean networks and Bayesian networks, are unsuitable for dealing with the combinatorial explosion, because they are designed for a restricted state space with fixed dimensionality. To overcome this problem, the rule-based modeling language, BioNetGen, and the spatial extension, SRSim, have been developed. Here, we describe how to apply rule-based modeling to integrate experimental data from different sources into a single spatial simulation model and how to analyze the output of that model. The starting point for this approach can be a combination of molecular interaction data, reaction network data, proximities, binding and diffusion kinetics and molecular geometries at different levels of detail. We describe the technique and then use it to construct a model of the human mitotic inner and outer kinetochore, including the spindle assembly checkpoint signaling pathway. This allows us to demonstrate the utility of the procedure, show how a novel perspective for understanding such complex systems becomes accessible and elaborate on challenges that arise in the formulation, simulation and analysis of spatial rule-based models. PMID:24709796

OPTHYLIC: An Optimised Tool for Hybrid Limits Computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busato, Emmanuel; Calvet, David; Theveneaux-Pelzer, Timothée

2018-05-01

A software tool, computing observed and expected upper limits on Poissonian process rates using a hybrid frequentist-Bayesian CLs method, is presented. This tool can be used for simple counting experiments where only signal, background and observed yields are provided or for multi-bin experiments where binned distributions of discriminating variables are provided. It allows the combination of several channels and takes into account statistical and systematic uncertainties, as well as correlations of systematic uncertainties between channels. It has been validated against other software tools and analytical calculations, for several realistic cases.

Prognostics of lithium-ion batteries based on Dempster-Shafer theory and the Bayesian Monte Carlo method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Wei; Williard, Nicholas; Osterman, Michael; Pecht, Michael

A new method for state of health (SOH) and remaining useful life (RUL) estimations for lithium-ion batteries using Dempster-Shafer theory (DST) and the Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) method is proposed. In this work, an empirical model based on the physical degradation behavior of lithium-ion batteries is developed. Model parameters are initialized by combining sets of training data based on DST. BMC is then used to update the model parameters and predict the RUL based on available data through battery capacity monitoring. As more data become available, the accuracy of the model in predicting RUL improves. Two case studies demonstrating this approach are presented.

Learning abstract visual concepts via probabilistic program induction in a Language of Thought.

PubMed

Overlan, Matthew C; Jacobs, Robert A; Piantadosi, Steven T

2017-11-01

The ability to learn abstract concepts is a powerful component of human cognition. It has been argued that variable binding is the key element enabling this ability, but the computational aspects of variable binding remain poorly understood. Here, we address this shortcoming by formalizing the Hierarchical Language of Thought (HLOT) model of rule learning. Given a set of data items, the model uses Bayesian inference to infer a probability distribution over stochastic programs that implement variable binding. Because the model makes use of symbolic variables as well as Bayesian inference and programs with stochastic primitives, it combines many of the advantages of both symbolic and statistical approaches to cognitive modeling. To evaluate the model, we conducted an experiment in which human subjects viewed training items and then judged which test items belong to the same concept as the training items. We found that the HLOT model provides a close match to human generalization patterns, significantly outperforming two variants of the Generalized Context Model, one variant based on string similarity and the other based on visual similarity using features from a deep convolutional neural network. Additional results suggest that variable binding happens automatically, implying that binding operations do not add complexity to peoples' hypothesized rules. Overall, this work demonstrates that a cognitive model combining symbolic variables with Bayesian inference and stochastic program primitives provides a new perspective for understanding people's patterns of generalization. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of water alterations under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Molina, Jose Luis; Pulido Velazquez, Manuel; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2017-04-01

Understanding the co-evolution and interrelations between natural and human pressures on water systems is required to ensure a sustainable management of resources under uncertain climate change conditions. To pursue multi-disciplinary research is therefore necessary to consider the multiplicity of stressors affecting water resources, take into account alternative perspectives (i.e. social, economic and environmental objective and priorities) and deal with uncertainty which characterize climate change scenarios. However, approaches commonly adopted in water quality assessment are predominantly mono-disciplinary, single-stressors oriented and apply concepts and models specific of different academic disciplines (e.g. physics, hydrology, ecology, sociology, economy) which, in fact, seldom shed their conceptual blinders failing to provide truly integrated results. In this context, the paper discusses the benefits and limits of adopting a multi-disciplinary approach where different knowledge domains collaborate and quantitative and qualitative information, coming from multiple conceptual and model-based research, are integrated in a harmonic manner. Specifically, Bayesian Networks are used as meta-modelling tool for structuring and combining the probabilistic information available in existing hydrological models, climate change and land use projections, historical observations and expert opinion. The developed network allows to perform a stochastic multi-risk assessment considering the interlacing between climate (i.e. irregularities in water regime) and land use changes (i.e. agriculture, urbanization) and their cascading impacts on water quality parameters (i.e. nutrients loadings). Main objective of the model is the development of multi-risk scenarios to assess and communicate the probability of not meeting a "Good chemical water status" over future timeframe taking into account projected climatic and not climatic conditions. The outcomes are finally used to identify tradeoffs between different water uses and perspectives, thus promoting the implementation of best practices for adaptation and management with ancillary co-benefits and cross-sectoral implications (i.e. tourism, fishing, biodiversity). Some preliminary results, describing the application of the model in the Dese-Zero river estuary, one of the main tributaries of the Venice Lagoon in Italy, will be here presented and discussed.

Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part II: Inverse models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Holland, K. Todd

2011-01-01

A Bayesian network model has been developed to simulate a relatively simple problem of wave propagation in the surf zone (detailed in Part I). Here, we demonstrate that this Bayesian model can provide both inverse modeling and data-assimilation solutions for predicting offshore wave heights and depth estimates given limited wave-height and depth information from an onshore location. The inverse method is extended to allow data assimilation using observational inputs that are not compatible with deterministic solutions of the problem. These inputs include sand bar positions (instead of bathymetry) and estimates of the intensity of wave breaking (instead of wave-height observations). Our results indicate that wave breaking information is essential to reduce prediction errors. In many practical situations, this information could be provided from a shore-based observer or from remote-sensing systems. We show that various combinations of the assimilated inputs significantly reduce the uncertainty in the estimates of water depths and wave heights in the model domain. Application of the Bayesian network model to new field data demonstrated significant predictive skill (R2 = 0.7) for the inverse estimate of a month-long time series of offshore wave heights. The Bayesian inverse results include uncertainty estimates that were shown to be most accurate when given uncertainty in the inputs (e.g., depth and tuning parameters). Furthermore, the inverse modeling was extended to directly estimate tuning parameters associated with the underlying wave-process model. The inverse estimates of the model parameters not only showed an offshore wave height dependence consistent with results of previous studies but the uncertainty estimates of the tuning parameters also explain previously reported variations in the model parameters.

Bayesian multivariate hierarchical transformation models for ROC analysis.

PubMed

O'Malley, A James; Zou, Kelly H

2006-02-15

A Bayesian multivariate hierarchical transformation model (BMHTM) is developed for receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis based on clustered continuous diagnostic outcome data with covariates. Two special features of this model are that it incorporates non-linear monotone transformations of the outcomes and that multiple correlated outcomes may be analysed. The mean, variance, and transformation components are all modelled parametrically, enabling a wide range of inferences. The general framework is illustrated by focusing on two problems: (1) analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of a covariate-dependent univariate test outcome requiring a Box-Cox transformation within each cluster to map the test outcomes to a common family of distributions; (2) development of an optimal composite diagnostic test using multivariate clustered outcome data. In the second problem, the composite test is estimated using discriminant function analysis and compared to the test derived from logistic regression analysis where the gold standard is a binary outcome. The proposed methodology is illustrated on prostate cancer biopsy data from a multi-centre clinical trial.

Bayesian multivariate hierarchical transformation models for ROC analysis

PubMed Central

O'Malley, A. James; Zou, Kelly H.

2006-01-01

SUMMARY A Bayesian multivariate hierarchical transformation model (BMHTM) is developed for receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis based on clustered continuous diagnostic outcome data with covariates. Two special features of this model are that it incorporates non-linear monotone transformations of the outcomes and that multiple correlated outcomes may be analysed. The mean, variance, and transformation components are all modelled parametrically, enabling a wide range of inferences. The general framework is illustrated by focusing on two problems: (1) analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of a covariate-dependent univariate test outcome requiring a Box–Cox transformation within each cluster to map the test outcomes to a common family of distributions; (2) development of an optimal composite diagnostic test using multivariate clustered outcome data. In the second problem, the composite test is estimated using discriminant function analysis and compared to the test derived from logistic regression analysis where the gold standard is a binary outcome. The proposed methodology is illustrated on prostate cancer biopsy data from a multi-centre clinical trial. PMID:16217836

Mixed effect Poisson log-linear models for clinical and epidemiological sleep hypnogram data

PubMed Central

Swihart, Bruce J.; Caffo, Brian S.; Crainiceanu, Ciprian; Punjabi, Naresh M.

2013-01-01

Bayesian Poisson log-linear multilevel models scalable to epidemiological studies are proposed to investigate population variability in sleep state transition rates. Hierarchical random effects are used to account for pairings of subjects and repeated measures within those subjects, as comparing diseased to non-diseased subjects while minimizing bias is of importance. Essentially, non-parametric piecewise constant hazards are estimated and smoothed, allowing for time-varying covariates and segment of the night comparisons. The Bayesian Poisson regression is justified through a re-derivation of a classical algebraic likelihood equivalence of Poisson regression with a log(time) offset and survival regression assuming exponentially distributed survival times. Such re-derivation allows synthesis of two methods currently used to analyze sleep transition phenomena: stratified multi-state proportional hazards models and log-linear models with GEE for transition counts. An example data set from the Sleep Heart Health Study is analyzed. Supplementary material includes the analyzed data set as well as the code for a reproducible analysis. PMID:22241689

BaTMAn: Bayesian Technique for Multi-image Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casado, J.; Ascasibar, Y.; García-Benito, R.; Guidi, G.; Choudhury, O. S.; Bellocchi, E.; Sánchez, S. F.; Díaz, A. I.

2016-12-01

Bayesian Technique for Multi-image Analysis (BaTMAn) characterizes any astronomical dataset containing spatial information and performs a tessellation based on the measurements and errors provided as input. The algorithm iteratively merges spatial elements as long as they are statistically consistent with carrying the same information (i.e. identical signal within the errors). The output segmentations successfully adapt to the underlying spatial structure, regardless of its morphology and/or the statistical properties of the noise. BaTMAn identifies (and keeps) all the statistically-significant information contained in the input multi-image (e.g. an IFS datacube). The main aim of the algorithm is to characterize spatially-resolved data prior to their analysis.

A Bayesian Attractor Model for Perceptual Decision Making

PubMed Central

Bitzer, Sebastian; Bruineberg, Jelle; Kiebel, Stefan J.

2015-01-01

Even for simple perceptual decisions, the mechanisms that the brain employs are still under debate. Although current consensus states that the brain accumulates evidence extracted from noisy sensory information, open questions remain about how this simple model relates to other perceptual phenomena such as flexibility in decisions, decision-dependent modulation of sensory gain, or confidence about a decision. We propose a novel approach of how perceptual decisions are made by combining two influential formalisms into a new model. Specifically, we embed an attractor model of decision making into a probabilistic framework that models decision making as Bayesian inference. We show that the new model can explain decision making behaviour by fitting it to experimental data. In addition, the new model combines for the first time three important features: First, the model can update decisions in response to switches in the underlying stimulus. Second, the probabilistic formulation accounts for top-down effects that may explain recent experimental findings of decision-related gain modulation of sensory neurons. Finally, the model computes an explicit measure of confidence which we relate to recent experimental evidence for confidence computations in perceptual decision tasks. PMID:26267143

Development of reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm in the Bayesian mixture modeling for microarray data in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astuti, Ani Budi; Iriawan, Nur; Irhamah, Kuswanto, Heri

2017-12-01

In the Bayesian mixture modeling requires stages the identification number of the most appropriate mixture components thus obtained mixture models fit the data through data driven concept. Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) is a combination of the reversible jump (RJ) concept and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) concept used by some researchers to solve the problem of identifying the number of mixture components which are not known with certainty number. In its application, RJMCMC using the concept of the birth/death and the split-merge with six types of movement, that are w updating, θ updating, z updating, hyperparameter β updating, split-merge for components and birth/death from blank components. The development of the RJMCMC algorithm needs to be done according to the observed case. The purpose of this study is to know the performance of RJMCMC algorithm development in identifying the number of mixture components which are not known with certainty number in the Bayesian mixture modeling for microarray data in Indonesia. The results of this study represent that the concept RJMCMC algorithm development able to properly identify the number of mixture components in the Bayesian normal mixture model wherein the component mixture in the case of microarray data in Indonesia is not known for certain number.

Estimation of the latent mediated effect with ordinal data using the limited-information and Bayesian full-information approaches.

PubMed

Chen, Jinsong; Zhang, Dake; Choi, Jaehwa

2015-12-01

It is common to encounter latent variables with ordinal data in social or behavioral research. Although a mediated effect of latent variables (latent mediated effect, or LME) with ordinal data may appear to be a straightforward combination of LME with continuous data and latent variables with ordinal data, the methodological challenges to combine the two are not trivial. This research covers model structures as complex as LME and formulates both point and interval estimates of LME for ordinal data using the Bayesian full-information approach. We also combine weighted least squares (WLS) estimation with the bias-corrected bootstrapping (BCB; Efron Journal of the American Statistical Association, 82, 171-185, 1987) method or the traditional delta method as the limited-information approach. We evaluated the viability of these different approaches across various conditions through simulation studies, and provide an empirical example to illustrate the approaches. We found that the Bayesian approach with reasonably informative priors is preferred when both point and interval estimates are of interest and the sample size is 200 or above.

Prediction of Effective Drug Combinations by an Improved Naïve Bayesian Algorithm.

PubMed

Bai, Li-Yue; Dai, Hao; Xu, Qin; Junaid, Muhammad; Peng, Shao-Liang; Zhu, Xiaolei; Xiong, Yi; Wei, Dong-Qing

2018-02-05

Drug combinatorial therapy is a promising strategy for combating complex diseases due to its fewer side effects, lower toxicity and better efficacy. However, it is not feasible to determine all the effective drug combinations in the vast space of possible combinations given the increasing number of approved drugs in the market, since the experimental methods for identification of effective drug combinations are both labor- and time-consuming. In this study, we conducted systematic analysis of various types of features to characterize pairs of drugs. These features included information about the targets of the drugs, the pathway in which the target protein of a drug was involved in, side effects of drugs, metabolic enzymes of the drugs, and drug transporters. The latter two features (metabolic enzymes and drug transporters) were related to the metabolism and transportation properties of drugs, which were not analyzed or used in previous studies. Then, we devised a novel improved naïve Bayesian algorithm to construct classification models to predict effective drug combinations by using the individual types of features mentioned above. Our results indicated that the performance of our proposed method was indeed better than the naïve Bayesian algorithm and other conventional classification algorithms such as support vector machine and K-nearest neighbor.

Bayesian model comparison and parameter inference in systems biology using nested sampling.

PubMed

Pullen, Nick; Morris, Richard J

2014-01-01

Inferring parameters for models of biological processes is a current challenge in systems biology, as is the related problem of comparing competing models that explain the data. In this work we apply Skilling's nested sampling to address both of these problems. Nested sampling is a Bayesian method for exploring parameter space that transforms a multi-dimensional integral to a 1D integration over likelihood space. This approach focuses on the computation of the marginal likelihood or evidence. The ratio of evidences of different models leads to the Bayes factor, which can be used for model comparison. We demonstrate how nested sampling can be used to reverse-engineer a system's behaviour whilst accounting for the uncertainty in the results. The effect of missing initial conditions of the variables as well as unknown parameters is investigated. We show how the evidence and the model ranking can change as a function of the available data. Furthermore, the addition of data from extra variables of the system can deliver more information for model comparison than increasing the data from one variable, thus providing a basis for experimental design.

Bayesian design criteria: computation, comparison, and application to a pharmacokinetic and a pharmacodynamic model.

PubMed

Merlé, Y; Mentré, F

1995-02-01

In this paper 3 criteria to design experiments for Bayesian estimation of the parameters of nonlinear models with respect to their parameters, when a prior distribution is available, are presented: the determinant of the Bayesian information matrix, the determinant of the pre-posterior covariance matrix, and the expected information provided by an experiment. A procedure to simplify the computation of these criteria is proposed in the case of continuous prior distributions and is compared with the criterion obtained from a linearization of the model about the mean of the prior distribution for the parameters. This procedure is applied to two models commonly encountered in the area of pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics: the one-compartment open model with bolus intravenous single-dose injection and the Emax model. They both involve two parameters. Additive as well as multiplicative gaussian measurement errors are considered with normal prior distributions. Various combinations of the variances of the prior distribution and of the measurement error are studied. Our attention is restricted to designs with limited numbers of measurements (1 or 2 measurements). This situation often occurs in practice when Bayesian estimation is performed. The optimal Bayesian designs that result vary with the variances of the parameter distribution and with the measurement error. The two-point optimal designs sometimes differ from the D-optimal designs for the mean of the prior distribution and may consist of replicating measurements. For the studied cases, the determinant of the Bayesian information matrix and its linearized form lead to the same optimal designs. In some cases, the pre-posterior covariance matrix can be far from its lower bound, namely, the inverse of the Bayesian information matrix, especially for the Emax model and a multiplicative measurement error. The expected information provided by the experiment and the determinant of the pre-posterior covariance matrix generally lead to the same designs except for the Emax model and the multiplicative measurement error. Results show that these criteria can be easily computed and that they could be incorporated in modules for designing experiments.

Bayesian sensitivity analysis methods to evaluate bias due to misclassification and missing data using informative priors and external validation data.

PubMed

Luta, George; Ford, Melissa B; Bondy, Melissa; Shields, Peter G; Stamey, James D

2013-04-01

Recent research suggests that the Bayesian paradigm may be useful for modeling biases in epidemiological studies, such as those due to misclassification and missing data. We used Bayesian methods to perform sensitivity analyses for assessing the robustness of study findings to the potential effect of these two important sources of bias. We used data from a study of the joint associations of radiotherapy and smoking with primary lung cancer among breast cancer survivors. We used Bayesian methods to provide an operational way to combine both validation data and expert opinion to account for misclassification of the two risk factors and missing data. For comparative purposes we considered a "full model" that allowed for both misclassification and missing data, along with alternative models that considered only misclassification or missing data, and the naïve model that ignored both sources of bias. We identified noticeable differences between the four models with respect to the posterior distributions of the odds ratios that described the joint associations of radiotherapy and smoking with primary lung cancer. Despite those differences we found that the general conclusions regarding the pattern of associations were the same regardless of the model used. Overall our results indicate a nonsignificantly decreased lung cancer risk due to radiotherapy among nonsmokers, and a mildly increased risk among smokers. We described easy to implement Bayesian methods to perform sensitivity analyses for assessing the robustness of study findings to misclassification and missing data. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pyrodiversity promotes avian diversity over the decade following forest fire

Treesearch

Morgan W. Tingley; Viviana Ruiz-Gutiérrez; Robert L. Wilkerson; Christine A. Howell; Rodney B. Siegel

2016-01-01

An emerging hypothesis in fire ecology is that pyrodiversity increases species diversity.We test whether pyrodiversity—defined as the standard deviation of fire severity—increases avian biodiversity at two spatial scales, and whether and how this relationship may change in the decade following fire. We use a dynamic Bayesian community model applied to a multi-year...

Evaluation of Oceanic Transport Statistics By Use of Transient Tracers and Bayesian Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trossman, D. S.; Thompson, L.; Mecking, S.; Bryan, F.; Peacock, S.

2013-12-01

Key variables that quantify the time scales over which atmospheric signals penetrate into the oceanic interior and their uncertainties are computed using Bayesian methods and transient tracers from both models and observations. First, the mean residence times, subduction rates, and formation rates of Subtropical Mode Water (STMW) and Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW) in the North Atlantic and Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) in the Southern Ocean are estimated by combining a model and observations of chlorofluorocarbon-11 (CFC-11) via Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), statistical technique that weights model estimates according to how close they agree with observations. Second, a Bayesian method is presented to find two oceanic transport parameters associated with the age distribution of ocean waters, the transit-time distribution (TTD), by combining an eddying global ocean model's estimate of the TTD with hydrographic observations of CFC-11, temperature, and salinity. Uncertainties associated with objectively mapping irregularly spaced bottle data are quantified by making use of a thin-plate spline and then propagated via the two Bayesian techniques. It is found that the subduction of STMW, SPMW, and SAMW is mostly an advective process, but up to about one-third of STMW subduction likely owes to non-advective processes. Also, while the formation of STMW is mostly due to subduction, the formation of SPMW is mostly due to other processes. About half of the formation of SAMW is due to subduction and half is due to other processes. A combination of air-sea flux, acting on relatively short time scales, and turbulent mixing, acting on a wide range of time scales, is likely the dominant SPMW erosion mechanism. Air-sea flux is likely responsible for most STMW erosion, and turbulent mixing is likely responsible for most SAMW erosion. Two oceanic transport parameters, the mean age of a water parcel and the half-variance associated with the TTD, estimated using the model's tracers as data (BayesPOP) and those estimated using tracer observations as data (BayesObs) provide information about the sources of model biases, and give a more nuanced picture than can be found by comparing the simulated CFC-11 concentrations with observed CFC-11 concentrations. Using the differences between the two oceanic transport parameters from BayesObs and those from BayesPOP with and without a constant Peclet number assumption along each of the hydrographic cross-sections considered here, it is found that the model's diffusivity tensor biases lead to larger model errors than the model's mean advection time biases. However, it is also found that mean advection time biases in the model are statistically significant at the 95% level where mode water is found.

Modelling multi-hazard hurricane damages on an urbanized coast with a Bayesian Network approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Verseveld, H.C.W.; Van Dongeren, A. R.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Jäger, W.S.; den Heijer, C.

2015-01-01

Hurricane flood impacts to residential buildings in coastal zones are caused by a number of hazards, such as inundation, overflow currents, erosion, and wave attack. However, traditional hurricane damage models typically make use of stage-damage functions, where the stage is related to flooding depth only. Moreover, these models are deterministic and do not consider the large amount of uncertainty associated with both the processes themselves and with the predictions. This uncertainty becomes increasingly important when multiple hazards (flooding, wave attack, erosion, etc.) are considered simultaneously. This paper focusses on establishing relationships between observed damage and multiple hazard indicators in order to make better probabilistic predictions. The concept consists of (1) determining Local Hazard Indicators (LHIs) from a hindcasted storm with use of a nearshore morphodynamic model, XBeach, and (2) coupling these LHIs and building characteristics to the observed damages. We chose a Bayesian Network approach in order to make this coupling and used the LHIs ‘Inundation depth’, ‘Flow velocity’, ‘Wave attack’, and ‘Scour depth’ to represent flooding, current, wave impacts, and erosion related hazards.The coupled hazard model was tested against four thousand damage observations from a case site at the Rockaway Peninsula, NY, that was impacted by Hurricane Sandy in late October, 2012. The model was able to accurately distinguish ‘Minor damage’ from all other outcomes 95% of the time and could distinguish areas that were affected by the storm, but not severely damaged, 68% of the time. For the most heavily damaged buildings (‘Major Damage’ and ‘Destroyed’), projections of the expected damage underestimated the observed damage. The model demonstrated that including multiple hazards doubled the prediction skill, with Log-Likelihood Ratio test (a measure of improved accuracy and reduction in uncertainty) scores between 0.02 and 0.17 when only one hazard is considered and a score of 0.37 when multiple hazards are considered simultaneously. The LHIs with the most predictive skill were ‘Inundation depth’ and ‘Wave attack’. The Bayesian Network approach has several advantages over the market-standard stage-damage functions: the predictive capacity of multiple indicators can be combined; probabilistic predictions can be obtained, which include uncertainty; and quantitative as well as descriptive information can be used simultaneously.

Periodic benefit-risk assessment using Bayesian stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis.

PubMed

Li, Kan; Yuan, Shuai Sammy; Wang, William; Wan, Shuyan Sabrina; Ceesay, Paulette; Heyse, Joseph F; Mt-Isa, Shahrul; Luo, Sheng

2018-04-01

Benefit-risk (BR) assessment is essential to ensure the best decisions are made for a medical product in the clinical development process, regulatory marketing authorization, post-market surveillance, and coverage and reimbursement decisions. One challenge of BR assessment in practice is that the benefit and risk profile may keep evolving while new evidence is accumulating. Regulators and the International Conference on Harmonization (ICH) recommend performing periodic benefit-risk evaluation report (PBRER) through the product's lifecycle. In this paper, we propose a general statistical framework for periodic benefit-risk assessment, in which Bayesian meta-analysis and stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) will be combined to synthesize the accumulating evidence. The proposed approach allows us to compare the acceptability of different drugs dynamically and effectively and accounts for the uncertainty of clinical measurements and imprecise or incomplete preference information of decision makers. We apply our approaches to two real examples in a post-hoc way for illustration purpose. The proposed method may easily be modified for other pre and post market settings, and thus be an important complement to the current structured benefit-risk assessment (sBRA) framework to improve the transparent and consistency of the decision-making process. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian hierarchical model for mortality data from cluster-sampling household surveys in humanitarian crises.

PubMed

Heudtlass, Peter; Guha-Sapir, Debarati; Speybroeck, Niko

2018-05-31

The crude death rate (CDR) is one of the defining indicators of humanitarian emergencies. When data from vital registration systems are not available, it is common practice to estimate the CDR from household surveys with cluster-sampling design. However, sample sizes are often too small to compare mortality estimates to emergency thresholds, at least in a frequentist framework. Several authors have proposed Bayesian methods for health surveys in humanitarian crises. Here, we develop an approach specifically for mortality data and cluster-sampling surveys. We describe a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson-Gamma mixture model with generic (weakly informative) priors that could be used as default in absence of any specific prior knowledge, and compare Bayesian and frequentist CDR estimates using five different mortality datasets. We provide an interpretation of the Bayesian estimates in the context of an emergency threshold and demonstrate how to interpret parameters at the cluster level and ways in which informative priors can be introduced. With the same set of weakly informative priors, Bayesian CDR estimates are equivalent to frequentist estimates, for all practical purposes. The probability that the CDR surpasses the emergency threshold can be derived directly from the posterior of the mean of the mixing distribution. All observation in the datasets contribute to the estimation of cluster-level estimates, through the hierarchical structure of the model. In a context of sparse data, Bayesian mortality assessments have advantages over frequentist ones already when using only weakly informative priors. More informative priors offer a formal and transparent way of combining new data with existing data and expert knowledge and can help to improve decision-making in humanitarian crises by complementing frequentist estimates.

Quantification of model uncertainty in aerosol optical thickness retrieval from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Määttä, A.; Laine, M.; Tamminen, J.; Veefkind, J. P.

2013-09-01

We study uncertainty quantification in remote sensing of aerosols in the atmosphere with top of the atmosphere reflectance measurements from the nadir-viewing Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Focus is on the uncertainty in aerosol model selection of pre-calculated aerosol models and on the statistical modelling of the model inadequacies. The aim is to apply statistical methodologies that improve the uncertainty estimates of the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) retrieval by propagating model selection and model error related uncertainties more realistically. We utilise Bayesian model selection and model averaging methods for the model selection problem and use Gaussian processes to model the smooth systematic discrepancies from the modelled to observed reflectance. The systematic model error is learned from an ensemble of operational retrievals. The operational OMI multi-wavelength aerosol retrieval algorithm OMAERO is used for cloud free, over land pixels of the OMI instrument with the additional Bayesian model selection and model discrepancy techniques. The method is demonstrated with four examples with different aerosol properties: weakly absorbing aerosols, forest fires over Greece and Russia, and Sahara dessert dust. The presented statistical methodology is general; it is not restricted to this particular satellite retrieval application.

Bayesian Computation Emerges in Generic Cortical Microcircuits through Spike-Timing-Dependent Plasticity

PubMed Central

Nessler, Bernhard; Pfeiffer, Michael; Buesing, Lars; Maass, Wolfgang

2013-01-01

The principles by which networks of neurons compute, and how spike-timing dependent plasticity (STDP) of synaptic weights generates and maintains their computational function, are unknown. Preceding work has shown that soft winner-take-all (WTA) circuits, where pyramidal neurons inhibit each other via interneurons, are a common motif of cortical microcircuits. We show through theoretical analysis and computer simulations that Bayesian computation is induced in these network motifs through STDP in combination with activity-dependent changes in the excitability of neurons. The fundamental components of this emergent Bayesian computation are priors that result from adaptation of neuronal excitability and implicit generative models for hidden causes that are created in the synaptic weights through STDP. In fact, a surprising result is that STDP is able to approximate a powerful principle for fitting such implicit generative models to high-dimensional spike inputs: Expectation Maximization. Our results suggest that the experimentally observed spontaneous activity and trial-to-trial variability of cortical neurons are essential features of their information processing capability, since their functional role is to represent probability distributions rather than static neural codes. Furthermore it suggests networks of Bayesian computation modules as a new model for distributed information processing in the cortex. PMID:23633941

Parameter estimation of multivariate multiple regression model using bayesian with non-informative Jeffreys’ prior distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saputro, D. R. S.; Amalia, F.; Widyaningsih, P.; Affan, R. C.

2018-05-01

Bayesian method is a method that can be used to estimate the parameters of multivariate multiple regression model. Bayesian method has two distributions, there are prior and posterior distributions. Posterior distribution is influenced by the selection of prior distribution. Jeffreys’ prior distribution is a kind of Non-informative prior distribution. This prior is used when the information about parameter not available. Non-informative Jeffreys’ prior distribution is combined with the sample information resulting the posterior distribution. Posterior distribution is used to estimate the parameter. The purposes of this research is to estimate the parameters of multivariate regression model using Bayesian method with Non-informative Jeffreys’ prior distribution. Based on the results and discussion, parameter estimation of β and Σ which were obtained from expected value of random variable of marginal posterior distribution function. The marginal posterior distributions for β and Σ are multivariate normal and inverse Wishart. However, in calculation of the expected value involving integral of a function which difficult to determine the value. Therefore, approach is needed by generating of random samples according to the posterior distribution characteristics of each parameter using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Gibbs sampling algorithm.

A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different stages of the multi-risk assessment process (i.e. identification of objectives, collection of data, definition of risk thresholds and indicators). The results of the assessment will allow the development of multi-risk scenarios enabling the evaluation and prioritization of risk management and adaptation options under changing climate conditions.

Multi-profile Bayesian alignment model for LC-MS data analysis with integration of internal standards

PubMed Central

Tsai, Tsung-Heng; Tadesse, Mahlet G.; Di Poto, Cristina; Pannell, Lewis K.; Mechref, Yehia; Wang, Yue; Ressom, Habtom W.

2013-01-01

Motivation: Liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) has been widely used for profiling expression levels of biomolecules in various ‘-omic’ studies including proteomics, metabolomics and glycomics. Appropriate LC-MS data preprocessing steps are needed to detect true differences between biological groups. Retention time (RT) alignment, which is required to ensure that ion intensity measurements among multiple LC-MS runs are comparable, is one of the most important yet challenging preprocessing steps. Current alignment approaches estimate RT variability using either single chromatograms or detected peaks, but do not simultaneously take into account the complementary information embedded in the entire LC-MS data. Results: We propose a Bayesian alignment model for LC-MS data analysis. The alignment model provides estimates of the RT variability along with uncertainty measures. The model enables integration of multiple sources of information including internal standards and clustered chromatograms in a mathematically rigorous framework. We apply the model to LC-MS metabolomic, proteomic and glycomic data. The performance of the model is evaluated based on ground-truth data, by measuring correlation of variation, RT difference across runs and peak-matching performance. We demonstrate that Bayesian alignment model improves significantly the RT alignment performance through appropriate integration of relevant information. Availability and implementation: MATLAB code, raw and preprocessed LC-MS data are available at http://omics.georgetown.edu/alignLCMS.html Contact: hwr@georgetown.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:24013927

Protein (multi-)location prediction: using location inter-dependencies in a probabilistic framework

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Motivation Knowing the location of a protein within the cell is important for understanding its function, role in biological processes, and potential use as a drug target. Much progress has been made in developing computational methods that predict single locations for proteins. Most such methods are based on the over-simplifying assumption that proteins localize to a single location. However, it has been shown that proteins localize to multiple locations. While a few recent systems attempt to predict multiple locations of proteins, their performance leaves much room for improvement. Moreover, they typically treat locations as independent and do not attempt to utilize possible inter-dependencies among locations. Our hypothesis is that directly incorporating inter-dependencies among locations into both the classifier-learning and the prediction process can improve location prediction performance. Results We present a new method and a preliminary system we have developed that directly incorporates inter-dependencies among locations into the location-prediction process of multiply-localized proteins. Our method is based on a collection of Bayesian network classifiers, where each classifier is used to predict a single location. Learning the structure of each Bayesian network classifier takes into account inter-dependencies among locations, and the prediction process uses estimates involving multiple locations. We evaluate our system on a dataset of single- and multi-localized proteins (the most comprehensive protein multi-localization dataset currently available, derived from the DBMLoc dataset). Our results, obtained by incorporating inter-dependencies, are significantly higher than those obtained by classifiers that do not use inter-dependencies. The performance of our system on multi-localized proteins is comparable to a top performing system (YLoc+), without being restricted only to location-combinations present in the training set. PMID:24646119

Protein (multi-)location prediction: using location inter-dependencies in a probabilistic framework.

PubMed

Simha, Ramanuja; Shatkay, Hagit

2014-03-19

Knowing the location of a protein within the cell is important for understanding its function, role in biological processes, and potential use as a drug target. Much progress has been made in developing computational methods that predict single locations for proteins. Most such methods are based on the over-simplifying assumption that proteins localize to a single location. However, it has been shown that proteins localize to multiple locations. While a few recent systems attempt to predict multiple locations of proteins, their performance leaves much room for improvement. Moreover, they typically treat locations as independent and do not attempt to utilize possible inter-dependencies among locations. Our hypothesis is that directly incorporating inter-dependencies among locations into both the classifier-learning and the prediction process can improve location prediction performance. We present a new method and a preliminary system we have developed that directly incorporates inter-dependencies among locations into the location-prediction process of multiply-localized proteins. Our method is based on a collection of Bayesian network classifiers, where each classifier is used to predict a single location. Learning the structure of each Bayesian network classifier takes into account inter-dependencies among locations, and the prediction process uses estimates involving multiple locations. We evaluate our system on a dataset of single- and multi-localized proteins (the most comprehensive protein multi-localization dataset currently available, derived from the DBMLoc dataset). Our results, obtained by incorporating inter-dependencies, are significantly higher than those obtained by classifiers that do not use inter-dependencies. The performance of our system on multi-localized proteins is comparable to a top performing system (YLoc+), without being restricted only to location-combinations present in the training set.

Measuring the Acoustic Release of a Chemotherapeutic Agent from Folate-Targeted Polymeric Micelles.

PubMed

Abusara, Ayah; Abdel-Hafez, Mamoun; Husseini, Ghaleb

2018-08-01

In this paper, we compare the use of Bayesian filters for the estimation of release and re-encapsulation rates of a chemotherapeutic agent (namely Doxorubicin) from nanocarriers in an acoustically activated drug release system. The study is implemented using an advanced kinetic model that takes into account cavitation events causing the antineoplastic agent's release from polymeric micelles upon exposure to ultrasound. This model is an improvement over the previous representations of acoustic release that used simple zero-, first- and second-order release and re-encapsulation kinetics to study acoustically triggered drug release from polymeric micelles. The new model incorporates drug release and micellar reassembly events caused by cavitation allowing for the controlled release of chemotherapeutics specially and temporally. Different Bayesian estimators are tested for this purpose including Kalman filters (KF), Extended Kalman filters (EKF), Particle filters (PF), and multi-model KF and EKF. Simulated and experimental results are used to verify the performance of the above-mentioned estimators. The proposed methods demonstrate the utility and high-accuracy of using estimation methods in modeling this drug delivery technique. The results show that, in both cases (linear and non-linear dynamics), the modeling errors are expensive but can be minimized using a multi-model approach. In addition, particle filters are more flexible filters that perform reasonably well compared to the other two filters. The study improved the accuracy of the kinetic models used to capture acoustically activated drug release from polymeric micelles, which may in turn help in designing hardware and software capable of precisely controlling the delivered amount of chemotherapeutics to cancerous tissue.

LANDMARK-BASED SPEECH RECOGNITION: REPORT OF THE 2004 JOHNS HOPKINS SUMMER WORKSHOP.

PubMed

Hasegawa-Johnson, Mark; Baker, James; Borys, Sarah; Chen, Ken; Coogan, Emily; Greenberg, Steven; Juneja, Amit; Kirchhoff, Katrin; Livescu, Karen; Mohan, Srividya; Muller, Jennifer; Sonmez, Kemal; Wang, Tianyu

2005-01-01

Three research prototype speech recognition systems are described, all of which use recently developed methods from artificial intelligence (specifically support vector machines, dynamic Bayesian networks, and maximum entropy classification) in order to implement, in the form of an automatic speech recognizer, current theories of human speech perception and phonology (specifically landmark-based speech perception, nonlinear phonology, and articulatory phonology). All three systems begin with a high-dimensional multiframe acoustic-to-distinctive feature transformation, implemented using support vector machines trained to detect and classify acoustic phonetic landmarks. Distinctive feature probabilities estimated by the support vector machines are then integrated using one of three pronunciation models: a dynamic programming algorithm that assumes canonical pronunciation of each word, a dynamic Bayesian network implementation of articulatory phonology, or a discriminative pronunciation model trained using the methods of maximum entropy classification. Log probability scores computed by these models are then combined, using log-linear combination, with other word scores available in the lattice output of a first-pass recognizer, and the resulting combination score is used to compute a second-pass speech recognition output.

Estimation of (co)variances for genomic regions of flexible sizes: application to complex infectious udder diseases in dairy cattle

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Multi-trait genomic models in a Bayesian context can be used to estimate genomic (co)variances, either for a complete genome or for genomic regions (e.g. per chromosome) for the purpose of multi-trait genomic selection or to gain further insight into the genomic architecture of related traits such as mammary disease traits in dairy cattle. Methods Data on progeny means of six traits related to mastitis resistance in dairy cattle (general mastitis resistance and five pathogen-specific mastitis resistance traits) were analyzed using a bivariate Bayesian SNP-based genomic model with a common prior distribution for the marker allele substitution effects and estimation of the hyperparameters in this prior distribution from the progeny means data. From the Markov chain Monte Carlo samples of the allele substitution effects, genomic (co)variances were calculated on a whole-genome level, per chromosome, and in regions of 100 SNP on a chromosome. Results Genomic proportions of the total variance differed between traits. Genomic correlations were lower than pedigree-based genetic correlations and they were highest between general mastitis and pathogen-specific traits because of the part-whole relationship between these traits. The chromosome-wise genomic proportions of the total variance differed between traits, with some chromosomes explaining higher or lower values than expected in relation to chromosome size. Few chromosomes showed pleiotropic effects and only chromosome 19 had a clear effect on all traits, indicating the presence of QTL with a general effect on mastitis resistance. The region-wise patterns of genomic variances differed between traits. Peaks indicating QTL were identified but were not very distinctive because a common prior for the marker effects was used. There was a clear difference in the region-wise patterns of genomic correlation among combinations of traits, with distinctive peaks indicating the presence of pleiotropic QTL. Conclusions The results show that it is possible to estimate, genome-wide and region-wise genomic (co)variances of mastitis resistance traits in dairy cattle using multivariate genomic models. PMID:22640006

Bayesian Divergence-Time Estimation with Genome-Wide SNP Data of Sea Catfishes (Ariidae) Supports Miocene Closure of the Panamanian Isthmus.

PubMed

Stange, Madlen; Sánchez-Villagra, Marcelo R; Salzburger, Walter; Matschiner, Michael

2018-01-27

The closure of the Isthmus of Panama has long been considered to be one of the best defined biogeographic calibration points for molecular divergence-time estimation. However, geological and biological evidence has recently cast doubt on the presumed timing of the initial isthmus closure around 3 Ma but has instead suggested the existence of temporary land bridges as early as the Middle or Late Miocene. The biological evidence supporting these earlier land bridges was based either on only few molecular markers or on concatenation of genome-wide sequence data, an approach that is known to result in potentially misleading branch lengths and divergence times, which could compromise the reliability of this evidence. To allow divergence-time estimation with genomic data using the more appropriate multi-species coalescent model, we here develop a new method combining the SNP-based Bayesian species-tree inference of the software SNAPP with a molecular clock model that can be calibrated with fossil or biogeographic constraints. We validate our approach with simulations and use our method to reanalyze genomic data of Neotropical army ants (Dorylinae) that previously supported divergence times of Central and South American populations before the isthmus closure around 3 Ma. Our reanalysis with the multi-species coalescent model shifts all of these divergence times to ages younger than 3 Ma, suggesting that the older estimates supporting the earlier existence of temporary land bridges were artifacts resulting at least partially from the use of concatenation. We then apply our method to a new RAD-sequencing data set of Neotropical sea catfishes (Ariidae) and calibrate their species tree with extensive information from the fossil record. We identify a series of divergences between groups of Caribbean and Pacific sea catfishes around 10 Ma, indicating that processes related to the emergence of the isthmus led to vicariant speciation already in the Late Miocene, millions of years before the final isthmus closure. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

Bayesian cloud detection for MERIS, AATSR, and their combination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollstein, A.; Fischer, J.; Carbajal Henken, C.; Preusker, R.

2014-11-01

A broad range of different of Bayesian cloud detection schemes is applied to measurements from the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS), the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR), and their combination. The cloud masks were designed to be numerically efficient and suited for the processing of large amounts of data. Results from the classical and naive approach to Bayesian cloud masking are discussed for MERIS and AATSR as well as for their combination. A sensitivity study on the resolution of multidimensional histograms, which were post-processed by Gaussian smoothing, shows how theoretically insufficient amounts of truth data can be used to set up accurate classical Bayesian cloud masks. Sets of exploited features from single and derived channels are numerically optimized and results for naive and classical Bayesian cloud masks are presented. The application of the Bayesian approach is discussed in terms of reproducing existing algorithms, enhancing existing algorithms, increasing the robustness of existing algorithms, and on setting up new classification schemes based on manually classified scenes.

Bayesian cloud detection for MERIS, AATSR, and their combination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollstein, A.; Fischer, J.; Carbajal Henken, C.; Preusker, R.

2015-04-01

A broad range of different of Bayesian cloud detection schemes is applied to measurements from the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS), the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR), and their combination. The cloud detection schemes were designed to be numerically efficient and suited for the processing of large numbers of data. Results from the classical and naive approach to Bayesian cloud masking are discussed for MERIS and AATSR as well as for their combination. A sensitivity study on the resolution of multidimensional histograms, which were post-processed by Gaussian smoothing, shows how theoretically insufficient numbers of truth data can be used to set up accurate classical Bayesian cloud masks. Sets of exploited features from single and derived channels are numerically optimized and results for naive and classical Bayesian cloud masks are presented. The application of the Bayesian approach is discussed in terms of reproducing existing algorithms, enhancing existing algorithms, increasing the robustness of existing algorithms, and on setting up new classification schemes based on manually classified scenes.

A Bayesian approach for parameter estimation and prediction using a computationally intensive model

DOE PAGES

Higdon, Dave; McDonnell, Jordan D.; Schunck, Nicolas; ...

2015-02-05

Bayesian methods have been successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based modelmore » $$\\eta (\\theta )$$, where θ denotes the uncertain, best input setting. Hence the statistical model is of the form $$y=\\eta (\\theta )+\\epsilon ,$$ where $$\\epsilon $$ accounts for measurement, and possibly other, error sources. When nonlinearity is present in $$\\eta (\\cdot )$$, the resulting posterior distribution for the unknown parameters in the Bayesian formulation is typically complex and nonstandard, requiring computationally demanding computational approaches such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to produce multivariate draws from the posterior. Although generally applicable, MCMC requires thousands (or even millions) of evaluations of the physics model $$\\eta (\\cdot )$$. This requirement is problematic if the model takes hours or days to evaluate. To overcome this computational bottleneck, we present an approach adapted from Bayesian model calibration. This approach combines output from an ensemble of computational model runs with physical measurements, within a statistical formulation, to carry out inference. A key component of this approach is a statistical response surface, or emulator, estimated from the ensemble of model runs. We demonstrate this approach with a case study in estimating parameters for a density functional theory model, using experimental mass/binding energy measurements from a collection of atomic nuclei. Lastly, we also demonstrate how this approach produces uncertainties in predictions for recent mass measurements obtained at Argonne National Laboratory.« less

Bayesian analysis of non-linear differential equation models with application to a gut microbial ecosystem.

PubMed

Lawson, Daniel J; Holtrop, Grietje; Flint, Harry

2011-07-01

Process models specified by non-linear dynamic differential equations contain many parameters, which often must be inferred from a limited amount of data. We discuss a hierarchical Bayesian approach combining data from multiple related experiments in a meaningful way, which permits more powerful inference than treating each experiment as independent. The approach is illustrated with a simulation study and example data from experiments replicating the aspects of the human gut microbial ecosystem. A predictive model is obtained that contains prediction uncertainty caused by uncertainty in the parameters, and we extend the model to capture situations of interest that cannot easily be studied experimentally. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Probabilistic Volcanic Multi-Hazard Assessment at Somma-Vesuvius (Italy): coupling Bayesian Belief Networks with a physical model for lahar propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tierz, Pablo; Woodhouse, Mark; Phillips, Jeremy; Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Marzocchi, Warner; Odbert, Henry

2017-04-01

Volcanoes are extremely complex physico-chemical systems where magma formed at depth breaks into the planet's surface resulting in major hazards from local to global scales. Volcano physics are dominated by non-linearities, and complicated spatio-temporal interrelationships which make volcanic hazards stochastic (i.e. not deterministic) by nature. In this context, probabilistic assessments are required to quantify the large uncertainties related to volcanic hazards. Moreover, volcanoes are typically multi-hazard environments where different hazardous processes can occur whether simultaneously or in succession. In particular, explosive volcanoes are able to accumulate, through tephra fallout and Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDCs), large amounts of pyroclastic material into the drainage basins surrounding the volcano. This addition of fresh particulate material alters the local/regional hydrogeological equilibrium and increases the frequency and magnitude of sediment-rich aqueous flows, commonly known as lahars. The initiation and volume of rain-triggered lahars may depend on: rainfall intensity and duration; antecedent rainfall; terrain slope; thickness, permeability and hydraulic diffusivity of the tephra deposit; etc. Quantifying these complex interrelationships (and their uncertainties), in a tractable manner, requires a structured but flexible probabilistic approach. A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is a directed acyclic graph that allows the representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of uncertain variables in a compact and efficient way, by exploiting unconditional and conditional independences between these variables. Once constructed and parametrized, the BBN uses Bayesian inference to perform causal (e.g. forecast) and/or evidential reasoning (e.g. explanation) about query variables, given some evidence. In this work, we illustrate how BBNs can be used to model the influence of several variables on the generation of rain-triggered lahars and, finally, assess the probability of occurrence of lahars of different volumes. The information utilized to parametrize the BBNs includes: (1) datasets of lahar observations; (2) numerical modelling of tephra fallout and PDCs; and (3) literature data. The BBN framework provides an opportunity to quantitatively combine these different types of evidence and use them to derive a rational approach to lahar forecasting. Lastly, we couple the BBN assessments with a shallow-water physical model for lahar propagation in order to attach probabilities to the simulated hazard footprints. We develop our methodology at Somma-Vesuvius (Italy), an explosive volcano prone to rain-triggered lahars or debris flows whether right after an eruption or during inter-eruptive periods. Accounting for the variability in tephra-fallout and dense-PDC propagation and the main geomorphological features of the catchments around Somma-Vesuvius, the areas most likely of forming medium-large lahars are the flanks of the volcano and the Sarno mountains towards the east.

Predicting Drug Safety and Communicating Risk: Benefits of a Bayesian Approach.

PubMed

Lazic, Stanley E; Edmunds, Nicholas; Pollard, Christopher E

2018-03-01

Drug toxicity is a major source of attrition in drug discovery and development. Pharmaceutical companies routinely use preclinical data to predict clinical outcomes and continue to invest in new assays to improve predictions. However, there are many open questions about how to make the best use of available data, combine diverse data, quantify risk, and communicate risk and uncertainty to enable good decisions. The costs of suboptimal decisions are clear: resources are wasted and patients may be put at risk. We argue that Bayesian methods provide answers to all of these problems and use hERG-mediated QT prolongation as a case study. Benefits of Bayesian machine learning models include intuitive probabilistic statements of risk that incorporate all sources of uncertainty, the option to include diverse data and external information, and visualizations that have a clear link between the output from a statistical model and what this means for risk. Furthermore, Bayesian methods are easy to use with modern software, making their adoption for safety screening straightforward. We include R and Python code to encourage the adoption of these methods.

Assessing Argumentative Representation with Bayesian Network Models in Debatable Social Issues

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Zhidong; Lu, Jingyan

2014-01-01

This study seeks to obtain argumentation models, which represent argumentative processes and an assessment structure in secondary school debatable issues in the social sciences. The argumentation model was developed based on mixed methods, a combination of both theory-driven and data-driven methods. The coding system provided a combing point by…

Multi-Phenomenological Analysis of the 12 August 2015 Tianjin, China Chemical Explosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasyanos, M.; Kim, K.; Park, J.; Stump, B. W.; Hayward, C.; Che, I. Y.; Zhao, L.; Myers, S. C.

2016-12-01

We perform a multi-phenomenological analysis of the massive near-surface chemical explosions that occurred in Tianjin, China on 12 August 2015. A recent assessment of these events was performed by Zhao et al. (2016) using local (< 100 km) seismic data. This study considers a regional assessment of the same sequence in the absence of having any local data. We provide additional insight by combining regional seismic analysis with the use of infrasound signals and an assessment of the event crater. Event locations using infrasound signals recorded at Korean and IMS arrays are estimated based on the Bayesian Infrasonic Source Location (BISL) method (Modrak et al., 2010), and improved with azimuthal corrections using a raytracing (Blom and Waxler, 2012) and the Ground-to-Space (G2S) atmospheric models (Drob et al., 2003). The location information provided from the infrasound signals is then merged with the regional seismic arrivals to produce a joint event location. The yields of the events are estimated from seismic and infrasonic observations. Seismic waveform envelope method (Pasyanos et al., 2012) including the free surface effect (Pasyanos and Ford, 2015) is applied to regional seismic signals. Waveform inversion method (Kim and Rodgers, 2016) is used for infrasound signals. A combination of the seismic and acoustic signals can provide insights on the energy partitioning and break the tradeoffs between the yield and the depth/height of explosions, resulting in a more robust estimation of event yield. The yield information from the different phenomenologies are combined through the use of likelihood functions.

Uncertainty evaluation in normalization of isotope delta measurement results against international reference materials.

PubMed

Meija, Juris; Chartrand, Michelle M G

2018-01-01

Isotope delta measurements are normalized against international reference standards. Although multi-point normalization is becoming a standard practice, the existing uncertainty evaluation practices are either undocumented or are incomplete. For multi-point normalization, we present errors-in-variables regression models for explicit accounting of the measurement uncertainty of the international standards along with the uncertainty that is attributed to their assigned values. This manuscript presents framework to account for the uncertainty that arises due to a small number of replicate measurements and discusses multi-laboratory data reduction while accounting for inevitable correlations between the laboratories due to the use of identical reference materials for calibration. Both frequentist and Bayesian methods of uncertainty analysis are discussed.

Single and Multiple Object Tracking Using a Multi-Feature Joint Sparse Representation.

PubMed

Hu, Weiming; Li, Wei; Zhang, Xiaoqin; Maybank, Stephen

2015-04-01

In this paper, we propose a tracking algorithm based on a multi-feature joint sparse representation. The templates for the sparse representation can include pixel values, textures, and edges. In the multi-feature joint optimization, noise or occlusion is dealt with using a set of trivial templates. A sparse weight constraint is introduced to dynamically select the relevant templates from the full set of templates. A variance ratio measure is adopted to adaptively adjust the weights of different features. The multi-feature template set is updated adaptively. We further propose an algorithm for tracking multi-objects with occlusion handling based on the multi-feature joint sparse reconstruction. The observation model based on sparse reconstruction automatically focuses on the visible parts of an occluded object by using the information in the trivial templates. The multi-object tracking is simplified into a joint Bayesian inference. The experimental results show the superiority of our algorithm over several state-of-the-art tracking algorithms.

Phylogeny of sipunculan worms: A combined analysis of four gene regions and morphology.

PubMed

Schulze, Anja; Cutler, Edward B; Giribet, Gonzalo

2007-01-01

The intra-phyletic relationships of sipunculan worms were analyzed based on DNA sequence data from four gene regions and 58 morphological characters. Initially we analyzed the data under direct optimization using parsimony as optimality criterion. An implied alignment resulting from the direct optimization analysis was subsequently utilized to perform a Bayesian analysis with mixed models for the different data partitions. For this we applied a doublet model for the stem regions of the 18S rRNA. Both analyses support monophyly of Sipuncula and most of the same clades within the phylum. The analyses differ with respect to the relationships among the major groups but whereas the deep nodes in the direct optimization analysis generally show low jackknife support, they are supported by 100% posterior probability in the Bayesian analysis. Direct optimization has been useful for handling sequences of unequal length and generating conservative phylogenetic hypotheses whereas the Bayesian analysis under mixed models provided high resolution in the basal nodes of the tree.

Bayesian Model Selection in Geophysics: The evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vrugt, J. A.

2016-12-01

Bayesian inference has found widespread application and use in science and engineering to reconcile Earth system models with data, including prediction in space (interpolation), prediction in time (forecasting), assimilation of observations and deterministic/stochastic model output, and inference of the model parameters. Per Bayes theorem, the posterior probability, , P(H|D), of a hypothesis, H, given the data D, is equivalent to the product of its prior probability, P(H), and likelihood, L(H|D), divided by a normalization constant, P(D). In geophysics, the hypothesis, H, often constitutes a description (parameterization) of the subsurface for some entity of interest (e.g. porosity, moisture content). The normalization constant, P(D), is not required for inference of the subsurface structure, yet of great value for model selection. Unfortunately, it is not particularly easy to estimate P(D) in practice. Here, I will introduce the various building blocks of a general purpose method which provides robust and unbiased estimates of the evidence, P(D). This method uses multi-dimensional numerical integration of the posterior (parameter) distribution. I will then illustrate this new estimator by application to three competing subsurface models (hypothesis) using GPR travel time data from the South Oyster Bacterial Transport Site, in Virginia, USA. The three subsurface models differ in their treatment of the porosity distribution and use (a) horizontal layering with fixed layer thicknesses, (b) vertical layering with fixed layer thicknesses and (c) a multi-Gaussian field. The results of the new estimator are compared against the brute force Monte Carlo method, and the Laplace-Metropolis method.

Bayesian learning of visual chunks by human observers

PubMed Central

Orbán, Gergő; Fiser, József; Aslin, Richard N.; Lengyel, Máté

2008-01-01

Efficient and versatile processing of any hierarchically structured information requires a learning mechanism that combines lower-level features into higher-level chunks. We investigated this chunking mechanism in humans with a visual pattern-learning paradigm. We developed an ideal learner based on Bayesian model comparison that extracts and stores only those chunks of information that are minimally sufficient to encode a set of visual scenes. Our ideal Bayesian chunk learner not only reproduced the results of a large set of previous empirical findings in the domain of human pattern learning but also made a key prediction that we confirmed experimentally. In accordance with Bayesian learning but contrary to associative learning, human performance was well above chance when pair-wise statistics in the exemplars contained no relevant information. Thus, humans extract chunks from complex visual patterns by generating accurate yet economical representations and not by encoding the full correlational structure of the input. PMID:18268353

A Bayesian Approach for Sensor Optimisation in Impact Identification

PubMed Central

Mallardo, Vincenzo; Sharif Khodaei, Zahra; Aliabadi, Ferri M. H.

2016-01-01

This paper presents a Bayesian approach for optimizing the position of sensors aimed at impact identification in composite structures under operational conditions. The uncertainty in the sensor data has been represented by statistical distributions of the recorded signals. An optimisation strategy based on the genetic algorithm is proposed to find the best sensor combination aimed at locating impacts on composite structures. A Bayesian-based objective function is adopted in the optimisation procedure as an indicator of the performance of meta-models developed for different sensor combinations to locate various impact events. To represent a real structure under operational load and to increase the reliability of the Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) system, the probability of malfunctioning sensors is included in the optimisation. The reliability and the robustness of the procedure is tested with experimental and numerical examples. Finally, the proposed optimisation algorithm is applied to a composite stiffened panel for both the uniform and non-uniform probability of impact occurrence. PMID:28774064

Parana Basin Structure from Multi-Objective Inversion of Surface Wave and Receiver Function by Competent Genetic Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, M.; Assumpcao, M.

2003-12-01

The joint inversion of receiver function and surface wave is an effective way to diminish the influences of the strong tradeoff among parameters and the different sensitivity to the model parameters in their respective inversions, but the inversion problem becomes more complex. Multi-objective problems can be much more complicated than single-objective inversion in the model selection and optimization. If objectives are involved and conflicting, models can be ordered only partially. In this case, Pareto-optimal preference should be used to select solutions. On the other hand, the inversion to get only a few optimal solutions can not deal properly with the strong tradeoff between parameters, the uncertainties in the observation, the geophysical complexities and even the incompetency of the inversion technique. The effective way is to retrieve the geophysical information statistically from many acceptable solutions, which requires more competent global algorithms. Competent genetic algorithms recently proposed are far superior to the conventional genetic algorithm and can solve hard problems quickly, reliably and accurately. In this work we used one of competent genetic algorithms, Bayesian Optimization Algorithm as the main inverse procedure. This algorithm uses Bayesian networks to draw out inherited information and can use Pareto-optimal preference in the inversion. With this algorithm, the lithospheric structure of Paran"› basin is inverted to fit both the observations of inter-station surface wave dispersion and receiver function.

Bayesian model calibration of ramp compression experiments on Z

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Justin; Hund, Lauren

2017-06-01

Bayesian model calibration (BMC) is a statistical framework to estimate inputs for a computational model in the presence of multiple uncertainties, making it well suited to dynamic experiments which must be coupled with numerical simulations to interpret the results. Often, dynamic experiments are diagnosed using velocimetry and this output can be modeled using a hydrocode. Several calibration issues unique to this type of scenario including the functional nature of the output, uncertainty of nuisance parameters within the simulation, and model discrepancy identifiability are addressed, and a novel BMC process is proposed. As a proof of concept, we examine experiments conducted on Sandia National Laboratories' Z-machine which ramp compressed tantalum to peak stresses of 250 GPa. The proposed BMC framework is used to calibrate the cold curve of Ta (with uncertainty), and we conclude that the procedure results in simple, fast, and valid inferences. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS TO EVALUATE TESTS FOR THE DETECTION OF MYCOBACTERIUM BOVIS INFECTION IN FREE-RANGING WILD BISON (BISON BISON ATHABASCAE) IN THE ABSENCE OF A GOLD STANDARD.

PubMed

Chapinal, Núria; Schumaker, Brant A; Joly, Damien O; Elkin, Brett T; Stephen, Craig

2015-07-01

We estimated the sensitivity and specificity of the caudal-fold skin test (CFT), the fluorescent polarization assay (FPA), and the rapid lateral-flow test (RT) for the detection of Mycobacterium bovis in free-ranging wild wood bison (Bison bison athabascae), in the absence of a gold standard, by using Bayesian analysis, and then used those estimates to forecast the performance of a pairwise combination of tests in parallel. In 1998-99, 212 wood bison from Wood Buffalo National Park (Canada) were tested for M. bovis infection using CFT and two serologic tests (FPA and RT). The sensitivity and specificity of each test were estimated using a three-test, one-population, Bayesian model allowing for conditional dependence between FPA and RT. The sensitivity and specificity of the combination of CFT and each serologic test in parallel were calculated assuming conditional independence. The test performance estimates were influenced by the prior values chosen. However, the rank of tests and combinations of tests based on those estimates remained constant. The CFT was the most sensitive test and the FPA was the least sensitive, whereas RT was the most specific test and CFT was the least specific. In conclusion, given the fact that gold standards for the detection of M. bovis are imperfect and difficult to obtain in the field, Bayesian analysis holds promise as a tool to rank tests and combinations of tests based on their performance. Combining a skin test with an animal-side serologic test, such as RT, increases sensitivity in the detection of M. bovis and is a good approach to enhance disease eradication or control in wild bison.

Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods.

PubMed

Drovandi, Christopher C; Pettitt, Anthony N

2013-12-01

In this paper we present a methodology for designing experiments for efficiently estimating the parameters of models with computationally intractable likelihoods. The approach combines a commonly used methodology for robust experimental design, based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to ensure that no likelihood evaluations are required. The utility function considered for precise parameter estimation is based upon the precision of the ABC posterior distribution, which we form efficiently via the ABC rejection algorithm based on pre-computed model simulations. Our focus is on stochastic models and, in particular, we investigate the methodology for Markov process models of epidemics and macroparasite population evolution. The macroparasite example involves a multivariate process and we assess the loss of information from not observing all variables. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

ENSURF: multi-model sea level forecast - implementation and validation results for the IBIROOS and Western Mediterranean regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez, B.; Brower, R.; Beckers, J.; Paradis, D.; Balseiro, C.; Lyons, K.; Cure, M.; Sotillo, M. G.; Hacket, B.; Verlaan, M.; Alvarez Fanjul, E.

2011-04-01

ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast that makes use of existing storm surge or circulation models today operational in Europe, as well as near-real time tide gauge data in the region, with the following main goals: - providing an easy access to existing forecasts, as well as to its performance and model validation, by means of an adequate visualization tool - generation of better forecasts of sea level, including confidence intervals, by means of the Bayesian Model Average Technique (BMA) The system was developed and implemented within ECOOP (C.No. 036355) European Project for the NOOS and the IBIROOS regions, based on MATROOS visualization tool developed by Deltares. Both systems are today operational at Deltares and Puertos del Estado respectively. The Bayesian Modelling Average technique generates an overall forecast probability density function (PDF) by making a weighted average of the individual forecasts PDF's; the weights represent the probability that a model will give the correct forecast PDF and are determined and updated operationally based on the performance of the models during a recent training period. This implies the technique needs the availability of sea level data from tide gauges in near-real time. Results of validation of the different models and BMA implementation for the main harbours will be presented for the IBIROOS and Western Mediterranean regions, where this kind of activity is performed for the first time. The work has proved to be useful to detect problems in some of the circulation models not previously well calibrated with sea level data, to identify the differences on baroclinic and barotropic models for sea level applications and to confirm the general improvement of the BMA forecasts.

Probabilistic Damage Characterization Using the Computationally-Efficient Bayesian Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Warner, James E.; Hochhalter, Jacob D.

2016-01-01

This work presents a computationally-ecient approach for damage determination that quanti es uncertainty in the provided diagnosis. Given strain sensor data that are polluted with measurement errors, Bayesian inference is used to estimate the location, size, and orientation of damage. This approach uses Bayes' Theorem to combine any prior knowledge an analyst may have about the nature of the damage with information provided implicitly by the strain sensor data to form a posterior probability distribution over possible damage states. The unknown damage parameters are then estimated based on samples drawn numerically from this distribution using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm. Several modi cations are made to the traditional Bayesian inference approach to provide signi cant computational speedup. First, an ecient surrogate model is constructed using sparse grid interpolation to replace a costly nite element model that must otherwise be evaluated for each sample drawn with MCMC. Next, the standard Bayesian posterior distribution is modi ed using a weighted likelihood formulation, which is shown to improve the convergence of the sampling process. Finally, a robust MCMC algorithm, Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM), is adopted to sample the probability distribution more eciently. Numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed framework e ectively provides damage estimates with uncertainty quanti cation and can yield orders of magnitude speedup over standard Bayesian approaches.

How to Detect the Location and Time of a Covert Chemical Attack: A Bayesian Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-12-01

Inverse Problems, Design and Optimization Symposium 2004. Rio de Janeiro , Brazil. Chan, R., and Yee, E. (1997). A simple model for the probability...sensor interpretation applications and has been successfully applied, for example, to estimate the source strength of pollutant releases in multi...coagulation, and second-order pollutant diffusion in sorption- desorption, are not linear. Furthermore, wide uncertainty bounds exist for several of

SIG-VISA: Signal-based Vertically Integrated Seismic Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, D.; Mayeda, K. M.; Myers, S. C.; Russell, S.

2013-12-01

Traditional seismic monitoring systems rely on discrete detections produced by station processing software; however, while such detections may constitute a useful summary of station activity, they discard large amounts of information present in the original recorded signal. We present SIG-VISA (Signal-based Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis), a system for seismic monitoring through Bayesian inference on seismic signals. By directly modeling the recorded signal, our approach incorporates additional information unavailable to detection-based methods, enabling higher sensitivity and more accurate localization using techniques such as waveform matching. SIG-VISA's Bayesian forward model of seismic signal envelopes includes physically-derived models of travel times and source characteristics as well as Gaussian process (kriging) statistical models of signal properties that combine interpolation of historical data with extrapolation of learned physical trends. Applying Bayesian inference, we evaluate the model on earthquakes as well as the 2009 DPRK test event, demonstrating a waveform matching effect as part of the probabilistic inference, along with results on event localization and sensitivity. In particular, we demonstrate increased sensitivity from signal-based modeling, in which the SIGVISA signal model finds statistical evidence for arrivals even at stations for which the IMS station processing failed to register any detection.

Bayesian State-Space Modelling of Conventional Acoustic Tracking Provides Accurate Descriptors of Home Range Behavior in a Small-Bodied Coastal Fish Species

PubMed Central

Alós, Josep; Palmer, Miquel; Balle, Salvador; Arlinghaus, Robert

2016-01-01

State-space models (SSM) are increasingly applied in studies involving biotelemetry-generated positional data because they are able to estimate movement parameters from positions that are unobserved or have been observed with non-negligible observational error. Popular telemetry systems in marine coastal fish consist of arrays of omnidirectional acoustic receivers, which generate a multivariate time-series of detection events across the tracking period. Here we report a novel Bayesian fitting of a SSM application that couples mechanistic movement properties within a home range (a specific case of random walk weighted by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process) with a model of observational error typical for data obtained from acoustic receiver arrays. We explored the performance and accuracy of the approach through simulation modelling and extensive sensitivity analyses of the effects of various configurations of movement properties and time-steps among positions. Model results show an accurate and unbiased estimation of the movement parameters, and in most cases the simulated movement parameters were properly retrieved. Only in extreme situations (when fast swimming speeds are combined with pooling the number of detections over long time-steps) the model produced some bias that needs to be accounted for in field applications. Our method was subsequently applied to real acoustic tracking data collected from a small marine coastal fish species, the pearly razorfish, Xyrichtys novacula. The Bayesian SSM we present here constitutes an alternative for those used to the Bayesian way of reasoning. Our Bayesian SSM can be easily adapted and generalized to any species, thereby allowing studies in freely roaming animals on the ecological and evolutionary consequences of home ranges and territory establishment, both in fishes and in other taxa. PMID:27119718

Effects of temporal and spatial resolution of calibration data on integrated hydrologic water quality model identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Sanyuan; Jomaa, Seifeddine; Büttner, Olaf; Rode, Michael

2014-05-01

Hydrological water quality modeling is increasingly used for investigating runoff and nutrient transport processes as well as watershed management but it is mostly unclear how data availablity determins model identification. In this study, the HYPE (HYdrological Predictions for the Environment) model, which is a process-based, semi-distributed hydrological water quality model, was applied in two different mesoscale catchments (Selke (463 km2) and Weida (99 km2)) located in central Germany to simulate discharge and inorganic nitrogen (IN) transport. PEST and DREAM(ZS) were combined with the HYPE model to conduct parameter calibration and uncertainty analysis. Split-sample test was used for model calibration (1994-1999) and validation (1999-2004). IN concentration and daily IN load were found to be highly correlated with discharge, indicating that IN leaching is mainly controlled by runoff. Both dynamics and balances of water and IN load were well captured with NSE greater than 0.83 during validation period. Multi-objective calibration (calibrating hydrological and water quality parameters simultaneously) was found to outperform step-wise calibration in terms of model robustness. Multi-site calibration was able to improve model performance at internal sites, decrease parameter posterior uncertainty and prediction uncertainty. Nitrogen-process parameters calibrated using continuous daily averages of nitrate-N concentration observations produced better and more robust simulations of IN concentration and load, lower posterior parameter uncertainty and IN concentration prediction uncertainty compared to the calibration against uncontinuous biweekly nitrate-N concentration measurements. Both PEST and DREAM(ZS) are efficient in parameter calibration. However, DREAM(ZS) is more sound in terms of parameter identification and uncertainty analysis than PEST because of its capability to evolve parameter posterior distributions and estimate prediction uncertainty based on global search and Bayesian inference schemes.

Combining cow and bull reference populations to increase accuracy of genomic prediction and genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Calus, M P L; de Haas, Y; Veerkamp, R F

2013-10-01

Genomic selection holds the promise to be particularly beneficial for traits that are difficult or expensive to measure, such that access to phenotypes on large daughter groups of bulls is limited. Instead, cow reference populations can be generated, potentially supplemented with existing information from the same or (highly) correlated traits available on bull reference populations. The objective of this study, therefore, was to develop a model to perform genomic predictions and genome-wide association studies based on a combined cow and bull reference data set, with the accuracy of the phenotypes differing between the cow and bull genomic selection reference populations. The developed bivariate Bayesian stochastic search variable selection model allowed for an unbalanced design by imputing residuals in the residual updating scheme for all missing records. The performance of this model is demonstrated on a real data example, where the analyzed trait, being milk fat or protein yield, was either measured only on a cow or a bull reference population, or recorded on both. Our results were that the developed bivariate Bayesian stochastic search variable selection model was able to analyze 2 traits, even though animals had measurements on only 1 of 2 traits. The Bayesian stochastic search variable selection model yielded consistently higher accuracy for fat yield compared with a model without variable selection, both for the univariate and bivariate analyses, whereas the accuracy of both models was very similar for protein yield. The bivariate model identified several additional quantitative trait loci peaks compared with the single-trait models on either trait. In addition, the bivariate models showed a marginal increase in accuracy of genomic predictions for the cow traits (0.01-0.05), although a greater increase in accuracy is expected as the size of the bull population increases. Our results emphasize that the chosen value of priors in Bayesian genomic prediction models are especially important in small data sets. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

CytoBayesJ: software tools for Bayesian analysis of cytogenetic radiation dosimetry data.

PubMed

Ainsbury, Elizabeth A; Vinnikov, Volodymyr; Puig, Pedro; Maznyk, Nataliya; Rothkamm, Kai; Lloyd, David C

2013-08-30

A number of authors have suggested that a Bayesian approach may be most appropriate for analysis of cytogenetic radiation dosimetry data. In the Bayesian framework, probability of an event is described in terms of previous expectations and uncertainty. Previously existing, or prior, information is used in combination with experimental results to infer probabilities or the likelihood that a hypothesis is true. It has been shown that the Bayesian approach increases both the accuracy and quality assurance of radiation dose estimates. New software entitled CytoBayesJ has been developed with the aim of bringing Bayesian analysis to cytogenetic biodosimetry laboratory practice. CytoBayesJ takes a number of Bayesian or 'Bayesian like' methods that have been proposed in the literature and presents them to the user in the form of simple user-friendly tools, including testing for the most appropriate model for distribution of chromosome aberrations and calculations of posterior probability distributions. The individual tools are described in detail and relevant examples of the use of the methods and the corresponding CytoBayesJ software tools are given. In this way, the suitability of the Bayesian approach to biological radiation dosimetry is highlighted and its wider application encouraged by providing a user-friendly software interface and manual in English and Russian. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Combining Computational Methods for Hit to Lead Optimization in Mycobacterium tuberculosis Drug Discovery

PubMed Central

Ekins, Sean; Freundlich, Joel S.; Hobrath, Judith V.; White, E. Lucile; Reynolds, Robert C

2013-01-01

Purpose Tuberculosis treatments need to be shorter and overcome drug resistance. Our previous large scale phenotypic high-throughput screening against Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) has identified 737 active compounds and thousands that are inactive. We have used this data for building computational models as an approach to minimize the number of compounds tested. Methods A cheminformatics clustering approach followed by Bayesian machine learning models (based on publicly available Mtb screening data) was used to illustrate that application of these models for screening set selections can enrich the hit rate. Results In order to explore chemical diversity around active cluster scaffolds of the dose-response hits obtained from our previous Mtb screens a set of 1924 commercially available molecules have been selected and evaluated for antitubercular activity and cytotoxicity using Vero, THP-1 and HepG2 cell lines with 4.3%, 4.2% and 2.7% hit rates, respectively. We demonstrate that models incorporating antitubercular and cytotoxicity data in Vero cells can significantly enrich the selection of non-toxic actives compared to random selection. Across all cell lines, the Molecular Libraries Small Molecule Repository (MLSMR) and cytotoxicity model identified ~10% of the hits in the top 1% screened (>10 fold enrichment). We also showed that seven out of nine Mtb active compounds from different academic published studies and eight out of eleven Mtb active compounds from a pharmaceutical screen (GSK) would have been identified by these Bayesian models. Conclusion Combining clustering and Bayesian models represents a useful strategy for compound prioritization and hit-to lead optimization of antitubercular agents. PMID:24132686

Predicting the multi-domain progression of Parkinson's disease: a Bayesian multivariate generalized linear mixed-effect model.

PubMed

Wang, Ming; Li, Zheng; Lee, Eun Young; Lewis, Mechelle M; Zhang, Lijun; Sterling, Nicholas W; Wagner, Daymond; Eslinger, Paul; Du, Guangwei; Huang, Xuemei

2017-09-25

It is challenging for current statistical models to predict clinical progression of Parkinson's disease (PD) because of the involvement of multi-domains and longitudinal data. Past univariate longitudinal or multivariate analyses from cross-sectional trials have limited power to predict individual outcomes or a single moment. The multivariate generalized linear mixed-effect model (GLMM) under the Bayesian framework was proposed to study multi-domain longitudinal outcomes obtained at baseline, 18-, and 36-month. The outcomes included motor, non-motor, and postural instability scores from the MDS-UPDRS, and demographic and standardized clinical data were utilized as covariates. The dynamic prediction was performed for both internal and external subjects using the samples from the posterior distributions of the parameter estimates and random effects, and also the predictive accuracy was evaluated based on the root of mean square error (RMSE), absolute bias (AB) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. First, our prediction model identified clinical data that were differentially associated with motor, non-motor, and postural stability scores. Second, the predictive accuracy of our model for the training data was assessed, and improved prediction was gained in particularly for non-motor (RMSE and AB: 2.89 and 2.20) compared to univariate analysis (RMSE and AB: 3.04 and 2.35). Third, the individual-level predictions of longitudinal trajectories for the testing data were performed, with ~80% observed values falling within the 95% credible intervals. Multivariate general mixed models hold promise to predict clinical progression of individual outcomes in PD. The data was obtained from Dr. Xuemei Huang's NIH grant R01 NS060722 , part of NINDS PD Biomarker Program (PDBP). All data was entered within 24 h of collection to the Data Management Repository (DMR), which is publically available ( https://pdbp.ninds.nih.gov/data-management ).

A bayesian approach to classification criteria for spectacled eiders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, B.L.; Wade, P.R.; Stehn, R.A.; Cochrane, J.F.

1996-01-01

To facilitate decisions to classify species according to risk of extinction, we used Bayesian methods to analyze trend data for the Spectacled Eider, an arctic sea duck. Trend data from three independent surveys of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta were analyzed individually and in combination to yield posterior distributions for population growth rates. We used classification criteria developed by the recovery team for Spectacled Eiders that seek to equalize errors of under- or overprotecting the species. We conducted both a Bayesian decision analysis and a frequentist (classical statistical inference) decision analysis. Bayesian decision analyses are computationally easier, yield basically the same results, and yield results that are easier to explain to nonscientists. With the exception of the aerial survey analysis of the 10 most recent years, both Bayesian and frequentist methods indicated that an endangered classification is warranted. The discrepancy between surveys warrants further research. Although the trend data are abundance indices, we used a preliminary estimate of absolute abundance to demonstrate how to calculate extinction distributions using the joint probability distributions for population growth rate and variance in growth rate generated by the Bayesian analysis. Recent apparent increases in abundance highlight the need for models that apply to declining and then recovering species.

Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

An efficient method for model refinement in diffuse optical tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zirak, A. R.; Khademi, M.

2007-11-01

Diffuse optical tomography (DOT) is a non-linear, ill-posed, boundary value and optimization problem which necessitates regularization. Also, Bayesian methods are suitable owing to measurements data are sparse and correlated. In such problems which are solved with iterative methods, for stabilization and better convergence, the solution space must be small. These constraints subject to extensive and overdetermined system of equations which model retrieving criteria specially total least squares (TLS) must to refine model error. Using TLS is limited to linear systems which is not achievable when applying traditional Bayesian methods. This paper presents an efficient method for model refinement using regularized total least squares (RTLS) for treating on linearized DOT problem, having maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator and Tikhonov regulator. This is done with combination Bayesian and regularization tools as preconditioner matrices, applying them to equations and then using RTLS to the resulting linear equations. The preconditioning matrixes are guided by patient specific information as well as a priori knowledge gained from the training set. Simulation results illustrate that proposed method improves the image reconstruction performance and localize the abnormally well.

The risk assessment of sudden water pollution for river network system under multi-source random emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, D.

2016-12-01

Sudden water pollution accidents are unavoidable risk events that we must learn to co-exist with. In China's Taihu River Basin, the river flow conditions are complicated with frequently artificial interference. Sudden water pollution accident occurs mainly in the form of a large number of abnormal discharge of wastewater, and has the characteristics with the sudden occurrence, the uncontrollable scope, the uncertainty object and the concentrated distribution of many risk sources. Effective prevention of pollution accidents that may occur is of great significance for the water quality safety management. Bayesian networks can be applied to represent the relationship between pollution sources and river water quality intuitively. Using the time sequential Monte Carlo algorithm, the pollution sources state switching model, water quality model for river network and Bayesian reasoning is integrated together, and the sudden water pollution risk assessment model for river network is developed to quantify the water quality risk under the collective influence of multiple pollution sources. Based on the isotope water transport mechanism, a dynamic tracing model of multiple pollution sources is established, which can describe the relationship between the excessive risk of the system and the multiple risk sources. Finally, the diagnostic reasoning algorithm based on Bayesian network is coupled with the multi-source tracing model, which can identify the contribution of each risk source to the system risk under the complex flow conditions. Taking Taihu Lake water system as the research object, the model is applied to obtain the reasonable results under the three typical years. Studies have shown that the water quality risk at critical sections are influenced by the pollution risk source, the boundary water quality, the hydrological conditions and self -purification capacity, and the multiple pollution sources have obvious effect on water quality risk of the receiving water body. The water quality risk assessment approach developed in this study offers a effective tool for systematically quantifying the random uncertainty in plain river network system, and it also provides the technical support for the decision-making of controlling the sudden water pollution through identification of critical pollution sources.

Moving beyond qualitative evaluations of Bayesian models of cognition.

PubMed

Hemmer, Pernille; Tauber, Sean; Steyvers, Mark

2015-06-01

Bayesian models of cognition provide a powerful way to understand the behavior and goals of individuals from a computational point of view. Much of the focus in the Bayesian cognitive modeling approach has been on qualitative model evaluations, where predictions from the models are compared to data that is often averaged over individuals. In many cognitive tasks, however, there are pervasive individual differences. We introduce an approach to directly infer individual differences related to subjective mental representations within the framework of Bayesian models of cognition. In this approach, Bayesian data analysis methods are used to estimate cognitive parameters and motivate the inference process within a Bayesian cognitive model. We illustrate this integrative Bayesian approach on a model of memory. We apply the model to behavioral data from a memory experiment involving the recall of heights of people. A cross-validation analysis shows that the Bayesian memory model with inferred subjective priors predicts withheld data better than a Bayesian model where the priors are based on environmental statistics. In addition, the model with inferred priors at the individual subject level led to the best overall generalization performance, suggesting that individual differences are important to consider in Bayesian models of cognition.

A non-invasive blood glucose meter design using multi-type sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, D.; Nguyen, Hienvu; Roveda, Janet

2012-10-01

In this paper, we present a design of a multi optical modalities blood glucose monitor. The Monte Carlo tissues optics simulation with typical human skin model suggests the SNR ratio for a detector sensor is 104 with high sensitivity that can detect low blood sugar limit at 1 mMole/dL ( <20 mg/dL). A Bayesian filtering algorithm is proposed for multisensor fusion to identify whether e user has the danger of having diabetes. The new design has real time response (on the average of 2 minutes) and provides great potential to perform real time monitoring for blood glucose.

Bayesian hierarchical models for regional climate reconstructions of the last glacial maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weitzel, Nils; Hense, Andreas; Ohlwein, Christian

2017-04-01

Spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate are important for the understanding of the long term behavior of the climate system and the sensitivity to forcing changes. Unfortunately, they are subject to large uncertainties, have to deal with a complex proxy-climate structure, and a physically reasonable interpolation between the sparse proxy observations is difficult. Bayesian Hierarchical Models (BHMs) are a class of statistical models that is well suited for spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate because they permit the inclusion of multiple sources of information (e.g. records from different proxy types, uncertain age information, output from climate simulations) and quantify uncertainties in a statistically rigorous way. BHMs in paleoclimatology typically consist of three stages which are modeled individually and are combined using Bayesian inference techniques. The data stage models the proxy-climate relation (often named transfer function), the process stage models the spatio-temporal distribution of the climate variables of interest, and the prior stage consists of prior distributions of the model parameters. For our BHMs, we translate well-known proxy-climate transfer functions for pollen to a Bayesian framework. In addition, we can include Gaussian distributed local climate information from preprocessed proxy records. The process stage combines physically reasonable spatial structures from prior distributions with proxy records which leads to a multivariate posterior probability distribution for the reconstructed climate variables. The prior distributions that constrain the possible spatial structure of the climate variables are calculated from climate simulation output. We present results from pseudoproxy tests as well as new regional reconstructions of temperatures for the last glacial maximum (LGM, ˜ 21,000 years BP). These reconstructions combine proxy data syntheses with information from climate simulations for the LGM that were performed in the PMIP3 project. The proxy data syntheses consist either of raw pollen data or of normally distributed climate data from preprocessed proxy records. Future extensions of our method contain the inclusion of other proxy types (transfer functions), the implementation of other spatial interpolation techniques, the use of age uncertainties, and the extension to spatio-temporal reconstructions of the last deglaciation. Our work is part of the PalMod project funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Science (BMBF).

Spatiotemporal modeling of PM2.5 concentrations at the national scale combining land use regression and Bayesian maximum entropy in China.

PubMed

Chen, Li; Gao, Shuang; Zhang, Hui; Sun, Yanling; Ma, Zhenxing; Vedal, Sverre; Mao, Jian; Bai, Zhipeng

2018-05-03

Concentrations of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) are relatively high in China. Estimation of PM 2.5 exposure is complex because PM 2.5 exhibits complex spatiotemporal patterns. To improve the validity of exposure predictions, several methods have been developed and applied worldwide. A hybrid approach combining a land use regression (LUR) model and Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) interpolation of the LUR space-time residuals were developed to estimate the PM 2.5 concentrations on a national scale in China. This hybrid model could potentially provide more valid predictions than a commonly-used LUR model. The LUR/BME model had good performance characteristics, with R 2  = 0.82 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 4.6 μg/m 3 . Prediction errors of the LUR/BME model were reduced by incorporating soft data accounting for data uncertainty, with the R 2 increasing by 6%. The performance of LUR/BME is better than OK/BME. The LUR/BME model is the most accurate fine spatial scale PM 2.5 model developed to date for China. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Predicting the heat of vaporization of iron at high temperatures using time-resolved laser-induced incandescence and Bayesian model selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sipkens, Timothy A.; Hadwin, Paul J.; Grauer, Samuel J.; Daun, Kyle J.

2018-03-01

Competing theories have been proposed to account for how the latent heat of vaporization of liquid iron varies with temperature, but experimental confirmation remains elusive, particularly at high temperatures. We propose time-resolved laser-induced incandescence measurements on iron nanoparticles combined with Bayesian model plausibility, as a novel method for evaluating these relationships. Our approach scores the explanatory power of candidate models, accounting for parameter uncertainty, model complexity, measurement noise, and goodness-of-fit. The approach is first validated with simulated data and then applied to experimental data for iron nanoparticles in argon. Our results justify the use of Román's equation to account for the temperature dependence of the latent heat of vaporization of liquid iron.

Quantity of dates trumps quality of dates for dense Bayesian radiocarbon sediment chronologies - Gas ion source 14C dating instructed by simultaneous Bayesian accumulation rate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenheim, B. E.; Firesinger, D.; Roberts, M. L.; Burton, J. R.; Khan, N.; Moyer, R. P.

2016-12-01

Radiocarbon (14C) sediment core chronologies benefit from a high density of dates, even when precision of individual dates is sacrificed. This is demonstrated by a combined approach of rapid 14C analysis of CO2 gas generated from carbonates and organic material coupled with Bayesian statistical modeling. Analysis of 14C is facilitated by the gas ion source on the Continuous Flow Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (CFAMS) system at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution's National Ocean Sciences Accelerator Mass Spectrometry facility. This instrument is capable of producing a 14C determination of +/- 100 14C y precision every 4-5 minutes, with limited sample handling (dissolution of carbonates and/or combustion of organic carbon in evacuated containers). Rapid analysis allows over-preparation of samples to include replicates at each depth and/or comparison of different sample types at particular depths in a sediment or peat core. Analysis priority is given to depths that have the least chronologic precision as determined by Bayesian modeling of the chronology of calibrated ages. Use of such a statistical approach to determine the order in which samples are run ensures that the chronology constantly improves so long as material is available for the analysis of chronologic weak points. Ultimately, accuracy of the chronology is determined by the material that is actually being dated, and our combined approach allows testing of different constituents of the organic carbon pool and the carbonate minerals within a core. We will present preliminary results from a deep-sea sediment core abundant in deep-sea foraminifera as well as coastal wetland peat cores to demonstrate statistical improvements in sediment- and peat-core chronologies obtained by increasing the quantity and decreasing the quality of individual dates.

Show me the data: advances in multi-model benchmarking, assimilation, and forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietze, M.; Raiho, A.; Fer, I.; Cowdery, E.; Kooper, R.; Kelly, R.; Shiklomanov, A. N.; Desai, A. R.; Simkins, J.; Gardella, A.; Serbin, S.

2016-12-01

Researchers want their data to inform carbon cycle predictions, but there are considerable bottlenecks between data collection and the use of data to calibrate and validate earth system models and inform predictions. This talk highlights recent advancements in the PEcAn project aimed at it making it easier for individual researchers to confront models with their own data: (1) The development of an easily extensible site-scale benchmarking system aimed at ensuring that models capture process rather than just reproducing pattern; (2) Efficient emulator-based Bayesian parameter data assimilation to constrain model parameters; (3) A novel, generalized approach to ensemble data assimilation to estimate carbon pools and fluxes and quantify process error; (4) automated processing and downscaling of CMIP climate scenarios to support forecasts that include driver uncertainty; (5) a large expansion in the number of models supported, with new tools for conducting multi-model and multi-site analyses; and (6) a network-based architecture that allows analyses to be shared with model developers and other collaborators. Application of these methods is illustrated with data across a wide range of time scales, from eddy-covariance to forest inventories to tree rings to paleoecological pollen proxies.

A Bayesian Framework for False Belief Reasoning in Children: A Rational Integration of Theory-Theory and Simulation Theory

PubMed Central

Asakura, Nobuhiko; Inui, Toshio

2016-01-01

Two apparently contrasting theories have been proposed to account for the development of children's theory of mind (ToM): theory-theory and simulation theory. We present a Bayesian framework that rationally integrates both theories for false belief reasoning. This framework exploits two internal models for predicting the belief states of others: one of self and one of others. These internal models are responsible for simulation-based and theory-based reasoning, respectively. The framework further takes into account empirical studies of a developmental ToM scale (e.g., Wellman and Liu, 2004): developmental progressions of various mental state understandings leading up to false belief understanding. By representing the internal models and their interactions as a causal Bayesian network, we formalize the model of children's false belief reasoning as probabilistic computations on the Bayesian network. This model probabilistically weighs and combines the two internal models and predicts children's false belief ability as a multiplicative effect of their early-developed abilities to understand the mental concepts of diverse beliefs and knowledge access. Specifically, the model predicts that children's proportion of correct responses on a false belief task can be closely approximated as the product of their proportions correct on the diverse belief and knowledge access tasks. To validate this prediction, we illustrate that our model provides good fits to a variety of ToM scale data for preschool children. We discuss the implications and extensions of our model for a deeper understanding of developmental progressions of children's ToM abilities. PMID:28082941

A Bayesian Framework for False Belief Reasoning in Children: A Rational Integration of Theory-Theory and Simulation Theory.

PubMed

Asakura, Nobuhiko; Inui, Toshio

2016-01-01

Two apparently contrasting theories have been proposed to account for the development of children's theory of mind (ToM): theory-theory and simulation theory. We present a Bayesian framework that rationally integrates both theories for false belief reasoning. This framework exploits two internal models for predicting the belief states of others: one of self and one of others. These internal models are responsible for simulation-based and theory-based reasoning, respectively. The framework further takes into account empirical studies of a developmental ToM scale (e.g., Wellman and Liu, 2004): developmental progressions of various mental state understandings leading up to false belief understanding. By representing the internal models and their interactions as a causal Bayesian network, we formalize the model of children's false belief reasoning as probabilistic computations on the Bayesian network. This model probabilistically weighs and combines the two internal models and predicts children's false belief ability as a multiplicative effect of their early-developed abilities to understand the mental concepts of diverse beliefs and knowledge access. Specifically, the model predicts that children's proportion of correct responses on a false belief task can be closely approximated as the product of their proportions correct on the diverse belief and knowledge access tasks. To validate this prediction, we illustrate that our model provides good fits to a variety of ToM scale data for preschool children. We discuss the implications and extensions of our model for a deeper understanding of developmental progressions of children's ToM abilities.

A Bayesian Machine Learning Model for Estimating Building Occupancy from Open Source Data

DOE PAGES

Stewart, Robert N.; Urban, Marie L.; Duchscherer, Samantha E.; ...

2016-01-01

Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including subject matter expertise, survey data, and remote sensing information. These data are fused using data harmonization methods which refer to a loose collection of formal and informal techniques for fusing data together to create viable content for building occupancy estimation. In this paper, we add to the current state of the artmore » by introducing the Population Data Tables (PDT), a Bayesian based informatics system for systematically arranging data and harmonization techniques into a consistent, transparent, knowledge learning framework that retains in the final estimation uncertainty emerging from data, expert judgment, and model parameterization. PDT probabilistically estimates ambient occupancy in units of people/1000ft2 for over 50 building types at the national and sub-national level with the goal of providing global coverage. The challenge of global coverage led to the development of an interdisciplinary geospatial informatics system tool that provides the framework for capturing, storing, and managing open source data, handling subject matter expertise, carrying out Bayesian analytics as well as visualizing and exporting occupancy estimation results. We present the PDT project, situate the work within the larger community, and report on the progress of this multi-year project.Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including subject matter expertise, survey data, and remote sensing information. These data are fused using data harmonization methods which refer to a loose collection of formal and informal techniques for fusing data together to create viable content for building occupancy estimation. In this paper, we add to the current state of the art by introducing the Population Data Tables (PDT), a Bayesian model and informatics system for systematically arranging data and harmonization techniques into a consistent, transparent, knowledge learning framework that retains in the final estimation uncertainty emerging from data, expert judgment, and model parameterization. PDT probabilistically estimates ambient occupancy in units of people/1000 ft 2 for over 50 building types at the national and sub-national level with the goal of providing global coverage. The challenge of global coverage led to the development of an interdisciplinary geospatial informatics system tool that provides the framework for capturing, storing, and managing open source data, handling subject matter expertise, carrying out Bayesian analytics as well as visualizing and exporting occupancy estimation results. We present the PDT project, situate the work within the larger community, and report on the progress of this multi-year project.« less

Stoffenmanager exposure model: company-specific exposure assessments using a Bayesian methodology.

PubMed

van de Ven, Peter; Fransman, Wouter; Schinkel, Jody; Rubingh, Carina; Warren, Nicholas; Tielemans, Erik

2010-04-01

The web-based tool "Stoffenmanager" was initially developed to assist small- and medium-sized enterprises in the Netherlands to make qualitative risk assessments and to provide advice on control at the workplace. The tool uses a mechanistic model to arrive at a "Stoffenmanager score" for exposure. In a recent study it was shown that variability in exposure measurements given a certain Stoffenmanager score is still substantial. This article discusses an extension to the tool that uses a Bayesian methodology for quantitative workplace/scenario-specific exposure assessment. This methodology allows for real exposure data observed in the company of interest to be combined with the prior estimate (based on the Stoffenmanager model). The output of the tool is a company-specific assessment of exposure levels for a scenario for which data is available. The Bayesian approach provides a transparent way of synthesizing different types of information and is especially preferred in situations where available data is sparse, as is often the case in small- and medium sized-enterprises. Real-world examples as well as simulation studies were used to assess how different parameters such as sample size, difference between prior and data, uncertainty in prior, and variance in the data affect the eventual posterior distribution of a Bayesian exposure assessment.

Multi-level hot zone identification for pedestrian safety.

PubMed

Lee, Jaeyoung; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Choi, Keechoo; Huang, Helai

2015-03-01

According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), while fatalities from traffic crashes have decreased, the proportion of pedestrian fatalities has steadily increased from 11% to 14% over the past decade. This study aims at identifying two zonal levels factors. The first is to identify hot zones at which pedestrian crashes occurs, while the second are zones where crash-involved pedestrians came from. Bayesian Poisson lognormal simultaneous equation spatial error model (BPLSESEM) was estimated and revealed significant factors for the two target variables. Then, PSIs (potential for safety improvements) were computed using the model. Subsequently, a novel hot zone identification method was suggested to combine both hot zones from where vulnerable pedestrians originated with hot zones where many pedestrian crashes occur. For the former zones, targeted safety education and awareness campaigns can be provided as countermeasures whereas area-wide engineering treatments and enforcement may be effective safety treatments for the latter ones. Thus, it is expected that practitioners are able to suggest appropriate safety treatments for pedestrian crashes using the method and results from this study. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Combining information from multiple flood projections in a hierarchical Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Vine, Nataliya

2016-04-01

This study demonstrates, in the context of flood frequency analysis, the potential of a recently proposed hierarchical Bayesian approach to combine information from multiple models. The approach explicitly accommodates shared multimodel discrepancy as well as the probabilistic nature of the flood estimates, and treats the available models as a sample from a hypothetical complete (but unobserved) set of models. The methodology is applied to flood estimates from multiple hydrological projections (the Future Flows Hydrology data set) for 135 catchments in the UK. The advantages of the approach are shown to be: (1) to ensure adequate "baseline" with which to compare future changes; (2) to reduce flood estimate uncertainty; (3) to maximize use of statistical information in circumstances where multiple weak predictions individually lack power, but collectively provide meaningful information; (4) to diminish the importance of model consistency when model biases are large; and (5) to explicitly consider the influence of the (model performance) stationarity assumption. Moreover, the analysis indicates that reducing shared model discrepancy is the key to further reduction of uncertainty in the flood frequency analysis. The findings are of value regarding how conclusions about changing exposure to flooding are drawn, and to flood frequency change attribution studies.

Bayesian Kernel Methods for Non-Gaussian Distributions: Binary and Multi-class Classification Problems

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-28

those of the support vector machine and relevance vector machine, and the model runs more quickly than the other algorithms . When one class occurs...incremental support vector machine algorithm for online learning when fewer than 50 data points are available. (a) Papers published in peer-reviewed journals...learning environments, where data processing occurs one observation at a time and the classification algorithm improves over time with new

A Bayesian framework based on a Gaussian mixture model and radial-basis-function Fisher discriminant analysis (BayGmmKda V1.1) for spatial prediction of floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tien Bui, Dieu; Hoang, Nhat-Duc

2017-09-01

In this study, a probabilistic model, named as BayGmmKda, is proposed for flood susceptibility assessment in a study area in central Vietnam. The new model is a Bayesian framework constructed by a combination of a Gaussian mixture model (GMM), radial-basis-function Fisher discriminant analysis (RBFDA), and a geographic information system (GIS) database. In the Bayesian framework, GMM is used for modeling the data distribution of flood-influencing factors in the GIS database, whereas RBFDA is utilized to construct a latent variable that aims at enhancing the model performance. As a result, the posterior probabilistic output of the BayGmmKda model is used as flood susceptibility index. Experiment results showed that the proposed hybrid framework is superior to other benchmark models, including the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and the support vector machine. To facilitate the model implementation, a software program of BayGmmKda has been developed in MATLAB. The BayGmmKda program can accurately establish a flood susceptibility map for the study region. Accordingly, local authorities can overlay this susceptibility map onto various land-use maps for the purpose of land-use planning or management.

Spatially constrained Bayesian inversion of frequency- and time-domain electromagnetic data from the Tellus projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiyan, Duygu; Rath, Volker; Delhaye, Robert

2017-04-01

The frequency- and time-domain airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data collected under the Tellus projects of the Geological Survey of Ireland (GSI) which represent a wealth of information on the multi-dimensional electrical structure of Ireland's near-surface. Our project, which was funded by GSI under the framework of their Short Call Research Programme, aims to develop and implement inverse techniques based on various Bayesian methods for these densely sampled data. We have developed a highly flexible toolbox using Python language for the one-dimensional inversion of AEM data along the flight lines. The computational core is based on an adapted frequency- and time-domain forward modelling core derived from the well-tested open-source code AirBeo, which was developed by the CSIRO (Australia) and the AMIRA consortium. Three different inversion methods have been implemented: (i) Tikhonov-type inversion including optimal regularisation methods (Aster el al., 2012; Zhdanov, 2015), (ii) Bayesian MAP inversion in parameter and data space (e.g. Tarantola, 2005), and (iii) Full Bayesian inversion with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (Sambridge and Mosegaard, 2002; Mosegaard and Sambridge, 2002), all including different forms of spatial constraints. The methods have been tested on synthetic and field data. This contribution will introduce the toolbox and present case studies on the AEM data from the Tellus projects.

Case studies in Bayesian microbial risk assessments.

PubMed

Kennedy, Marc C; Clough, Helen E; Turner, Joanne

2009-12-21

The quantification of uncertainty and variability is a key component of quantitative risk analysis. Recent advances in Bayesian statistics make it ideal for integrating multiple sources of information, of different types and quality, and providing a realistic estimate of the combined uncertainty in the final risk estimates. We present two case studies related to foodborne microbial risks. In the first, we combine models to describe the sequence of events resulting in illness from consumption of milk contaminated with VTEC O157. We used Monte Carlo simulation to propagate uncertainty in some of the inputs to computer models describing the farm and pasteurisation process. Resulting simulated contamination levels were then assigned to consumption events from a dietary survey. Finally we accounted for uncertainty in the dose-response relationship and uncertainty due to limited incidence data to derive uncertainty about yearly incidences of illness in young children. Options for altering the risk were considered by running the model with different hypothetical policy-driven exposure scenarios. In the second case study we illustrate an efficient Bayesian sensitivity analysis for identifying the most important parameters of a complex computer code that simulated VTEC O157 prevalence within a managed dairy herd. This was carried out in 2 stages, first to screen out the unimportant inputs, then to perform a more detailed analysis on the remaining inputs. The method works by building a Bayesian statistical approximation to the computer code using a number of known code input/output pairs (training runs). We estimated that the expected total number of children aged 1.5-4.5 who become ill due to VTEC O157 in milk is 8.6 per year, with 95% uncertainty interval (0,11.5). The most extreme policy we considered was banning on-farm pasteurisation of milk, which reduced the estimate to 6.4 with 95% interval (0,11). In the second case study the effective number of inputs was reduced from 30 to 7 in the screening stage, and just 2 inputs were found to explain 82.8% of the output variance. A combined total of 500 runs of the computer code were used. These case studies illustrate the use of Bayesian statistics to perform detailed uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, integrating multiple information sources in a way that is both rigorous and efficient.

A Category Adjustment Approach to Memory for Spatial Location in Natural Scenes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holden, Mark P.; Curby, Kim M.; Newcombe, Nora S.; Shipley, Thomas F.

2010-01-01

Memories for spatial locations often show systematic errors toward the central value of the surrounding region. This bias has been explained using a Bayesian model in which fine-grained and categorical information are combined (Huttenlocher, Hedges, & Duncan, 1991). However, experiments testing this model have largely used locations contained in…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Da Rio, Nicola; Robberto, Massimo, E-mail: ndario@rssd.esa.int

We present the Tool for Astrophysical Data Analysis (TA-DA), a new software aimed to greatly simplify and improve the analysis of stellar photometric data in comparison with theoretical models, and allow the derivation of stellar parameters from multi-band photometry. Its flexibility allows one to address a number of such problems: from the interpolation of stellar models, or sets of stellar physical parameters in general, to the computation of synthetic photometry in arbitrary filters or units; from the analysis of observed color-magnitude diagrams to a Bayesian derivation of stellar parameters (and extinction) based on multi-band data. TA-DA is available as amore » pre-compiled Interactive Data Language widget-based application; its graphical user interface makes it considerably user-friendly. In this paper, we describe the software and its functionalities.« less

Bayesian adaptive phase II screening design for combination trials.

PubMed

Cai, Chunyan; Yuan, Ying; Johnson, Valen E

2013-01-01

Trials of combination therapies for the treatment of cancer are playing an increasingly important role in the battle against this disease. To more efficiently handle the large number of combination therapies that must be tested, we propose a novel Bayesian phase II adaptive screening design to simultaneously select among possible treatment combinations involving multiple agents. Our design is based on formulating the selection procedure as a Bayesian hypothesis testing problem in which the superiority of each treatment combination is equated to a single hypothesis. During the trial conduct, we use the current values of the posterior probabilities of all hypotheses to adaptively allocate patients to treatment combinations. Simulation studies show that the proposed design substantially outperforms the conventional multiarm balanced factorial trial design. The proposed design yields a significantly higher probability for selecting the best treatment while allocating substantially more patients to efficacious treatments. The proposed design is most appropriate for the trials combining multiple agents and screening out the efficacious combination to be further investigated. The proposed Bayesian adaptive phase II screening design substantially outperformed the conventional complete factorial design. Our design allocates more patients to better treatments while providing higher power to identify the best treatment at the end of the trial.

Bayesian Analysis of the Glacial-Interglacial Methane Increase Constrained by Stable Isotopes and Earth System Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopcroft, Peter O.; Valdes, Paul J.; Kaplan, Jed O.

2018-04-01

The observed rise in atmospheric methane (CH4) from 375 ppbv during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21,000 years ago) to 680 ppbv during the late preindustrial era is not well understood. Atmospheric chemistry considerations implicate an increase in CH4 sources, but process-based estimates fail to reproduce the required amplitude. CH4 stable isotopes provide complementary information that can help constrain the underlying causes of the increase. We combine Earth System model simulations of the late preindustrial and LGM CH4 cycles, including process-based estimates of the isotopic discrimination of vegetation, in a box model of atmospheric CH4 and its isotopes. Using a Bayesian approach, we show how model-based constraints and ice core observations may be combined in a consistent probabilistic framework. The resultant posterior distributions point to a strong reduction in wetland and other biogenic CH4 emissions during the LGM, with a modest increase in the geological source, or potentially natural or anthropogenic fires, accounting for the observed enrichment of δ13CH4.

A Bayesian hierarchical model with spatial variable selection: the effect of weather on insurance claims

PubMed Central

Scheel, Ida; Ferkingstad, Egil; Frigessi, Arnoldo; Haug, Ola; Hinnerichsen, Mikkel; Meze-Hausken, Elisabeth

2013-01-01

Climate change will affect the insurance industry. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical statistical approach to explain and predict insurance losses due to weather events at a local geographic scale. The number of weather-related insurance claims is modelled by combining generalized linear models with spatially smoothed variable selection. Using Gibbs sampling and reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, this model is fitted on daily weather and insurance data from each of the 319 municipalities which constitute southern and central Norway for the period 1997–2006. Precise out-of-sample predictions validate the model. Our results show interesting regional patterns in the effect of different weather covariates. In addition to being useful for insurance pricing, our model can be used for short-term predictions based on weather forecasts and for long-term predictions based on downscaled climate models. PMID:23396890

Identifying nitrate sources and transformations in surface water by combining dual isotopes of nitrate and stable isotope mixing model in a watershed with different land uses and multi-tributaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Meng; Lu, Baohong

2017-04-01

Nitrate is essential for the growth and survival of plants, animals and humans. However, excess nitrate in drinking water is regarded as a health hazard as it is linked to infant methemoglobinemia and esophageal cancer. Revealing nitrate characteristics and identifying its sources are fundamental for making effective water management strategies, but nitrate sources in multi-tributaries and mixed land covered watersheds remain unclear. It is difficult to determine the predominant NO3- sources using conventional water quality monitoring techniques. In our study, based on 20 surface water sampling sites for more than two years' monitoring from April 2012 to December 2014, water chemical and dual isotopic approaches (δ15N-NO3- and δ18O-NO3-) were integrated for the first time to evaluate nitrate characteristics and sources in the Huashan watershed, Jianghuai hilly region, East China. The results demonstrated that nitrate content in surface water was relatively low in the downstream (<10 mg/L), but spatial heterogeneities were remarkable among different sub-watersheds. Extremely high nitrate was observed at the source of the river in one of the sub-watersheds, which exhibited an exponential decline along the stream due to dilution, absorption by aquatic plants, and high forest cover. Although dramatically decline of nitrate occurred along the stream, denitrification was not found in surface water by analyzing δ15N-NO3- and δ18O-NO3- relationship. Proportional contributions of five potential nitrate sources (i.e., precipitation; manure and sewage; soil nitrogen; nitrate fertilizer; nitrate derived from ammonia fertilizer and rainfall) were estimated using a Bayesian isotope mixing model. Model results indicated nitrate sources varied significantly among different rainfall conditions, land use types, as well as anthropologic activities. In summary, coupling dual isotopes of nitrate (δ15N-NO3- and δ18O-NO3-, simultaneously) with a Bayesian isotope mixing model offers a useful and practical way to qualitatively analyze nitrate sources and transformations as well as quantitatively estimate the contributions of potential nitrate sources in surface water. With the assessment of nitrate sources and characteristics, effective management strategies can be implemented to reduce N export and improve water quality in this region.

On the uncertainty in single molecule fluorescent lifetime and energy emission measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Emery N.; Zhang, Zhenhua; Mccollom, Alex D.

1995-01-01

Time-correlated single photon counting has recently been combined with mode-locked picosecond pulsed excitation to measure the fluorescent lifetimes and energy emissions of single molecules in a flow stream. Maximum likelihood (ML) and least square methods agree and are optimal when the number of detected photons is large however, in single molecule fluorescence experiments the number of detected photons can be less than 20, 67% of those can be noise and the detection time is restricted to 10 nanoseconds. Under the assumption that the photon signal and background noise are two independent inhomogeneous poisson processes, we derive the exact joint arrival time probably density of the photons collected in a single counting experiment performed in the presence of background noise. The model obviates the need to bin experimental data for analysis, and makes it possible to analyze formally the effect of background noise on the photon detection experiment using both ML or Bayesian methods. For both methods we derive the joint and marginal probability densities of the fluorescent lifetime and fluorescent emission. the ML and Bayesian methods are compared in an analysis of simulated single molecule fluorescence experiments of Rhodamine 110 using different combinations of expected background nose and expected fluorescence emission. While both the ML or Bayesian procedures perform well for analyzing fluorescence emissions, the Bayesian methods provide more realistic measures of uncertainty in the fluorescent lifetimes. The Bayesian methods would be especially useful for measuring uncertainty in fluorescent lifetime estimates in current single molecule flow stream experiments where the expected fluorescence emission is low. Both the ML and Bayesian algorithms can be automated for applications in molecular biology.

On the Uncertainty in Single Molecule Fluorescent Lifetime and Energy Emission Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Emery N.; Zhang, Zhenhua; McCollom, Alex D.

1996-01-01

Time-correlated single photon counting has recently been combined with mode-locked picosecond pulsed excitation to measure the fluorescent lifetimes and energy emissions of single molecules in a flow stream. Maximum likelihood (ML) and least squares methods agree and are optimal when the number of detected photons is large, however, in single molecule fluorescence experiments the number of detected photons can be less than 20, 67 percent of those can be noise, and the detection time is restricted to 10 nanoseconds. Under the assumption that the photon signal and background noise are two independent inhomogeneous Poisson processes, we derive the exact joint arrival time probability density of the photons collected in a single counting experiment performed in the presence of background noise. The model obviates the need to bin experimental data for analysis, and makes it possible to analyze formally the effect of background noise on the photon detection experiment using both ML or Bayesian methods. For both methods we derive the joint and marginal probability densities of the fluorescent lifetime and fluorescent emission. The ML and Bayesian methods are compared in an analysis of simulated single molecule fluorescence experiments of Rhodamine 110 using different combinations of expected background noise and expected fluorescence emission. While both the ML or Bayesian procedures perform well for analyzing fluorescence emissions, the Bayesian methods provide more realistic measures of uncertainty in the fluorescent lifetimes. The Bayesian methods would be especially useful for measuring uncertainty in fluorescent lifetime estimates in current single molecule flow stream experiments where the expected fluorescence emission is low. Both the ML and Bayesian algorithms can be automated for applications in molecular biology.

The impact of using informative priors in a Bayesian cost-effectiveness analysis: an application of endovascular versus open surgical repair for abdominal aortic aneurysms in high-risk patients.

PubMed

McCarron, C Elizabeth; Pullenayegum, Eleanor M; Thabane, Lehana; Goeree, Ron; Tarride, Jean-Eric

2013-04-01

Bayesian methods have been proposed as a way of synthesizing all available evidence to inform decision making. However, few practical applications of the use of Bayesian methods for combining patient-level data (i.e., trial) with additional evidence (e.g., literature) exist in the cost-effectiveness literature. The objective of this study was to compare a Bayesian cost-effectiveness analysis using informative priors to a standard non-Bayesian nonparametric method to assess the impact of incorporating additional information into a cost-effectiveness analysis. Patient-level data from a previously published nonrandomized study were analyzed using traditional nonparametric bootstrap techniques and bivariate normal Bayesian models with vague and informative priors. Two different types of informative priors were considered to reflect different valuations of the additional evidence relative to the patient-level data (i.e., "face value" and "skeptical"). The impact of using different distributions and valuations was assessed in a sensitivity analysis. Models were compared in terms of incremental net monetary benefit (INMB) and cost-effectiveness acceptability frontiers (CEAFs). The bootstrapping and Bayesian analyses using vague priors provided similar results. The most pronounced impact of incorporating the informative priors was the increase in estimated life years in the control arm relative to what was observed in the patient-level data alone. Consequently, the incremental difference in life years originally observed in the patient-level data was reduced, and the INMB and CEAF changed accordingly. The results of this study demonstrate the potential impact and importance of incorporating additional information into an analysis of patient-level data, suggesting this could alter decisions as to whether a treatment should be adopted and whether more information should be acquired.

Updating Parameters for Volcanic Hazard Assessment Using Multi-parameter Monitoring Data Streams And Bayesian Belief Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odbert, Henry; Aspinall, Willy

2014-05-01

Evidence-based hazard assessment at volcanoes assimilates knowledge about the physical processes of hazardous phenomena and observations that indicate the current state of a volcano. Incorporating both these lines of evidence can inform our belief about the likelihood (probability) and consequences (impact) of possible hazardous scenarios, forming a basis for formal quantitative hazard assessment. However, such evidence is often uncertain, indirect or incomplete. Approaches to volcano monitoring have advanced substantially in recent decades, increasing the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence thus becomes increasingly complex. In practice, interpreting many timeseries requires an individual to be familiar with the idiosyncrasies of the volcano, monitoring techniques, configuration of recording instruments, observations from other datasets, and so on. In making such interpretations, an individual must consider how different volcanic processes may manifest as measureable observations, and then infer from the available data what can or cannot be deduced about those processes. We examine how parts of this process may be synthesised algorithmically using Bayesian inference. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple strands of evidence (e.g. observations, model results and interpretations) and their associated uncertainties in a methodical manner. BBNs are usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic data from the long-lived eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We discuss the uncertainty of inferences, and how our method provides a route to formal propagation of uncertainties in hazard models. Such approaches provide an attractive route to developing an interface between volcano monitoring analyses and probabilistic hazard scenario analysis. We discuss the use of BBNs in hazard analysis as a tractable and traceable tool for fast, rational assimilation of complex, multi-parameter data sets in the context of timely volcanic crisis decision support.

Testing Bayesian and heuristic predictions of mass judgments of colliding objects

PubMed Central

Sanborn, Adam N.

2014-01-01

Mass judgments of colliding objects have been used to explore people's understanding of the physical world because they are ecologically relevant, yet people display biases that are most easily explained by a small set of heuristics. Recent work has challenged the heuristic explanation, by producing the same biases from a model that copes with perceptual uncertainty by using Bayesian inference with a prior based on the correct combination rules from Newtonian mechanics (noisy Newton). Here I test the predictions of the leading heuristic model (Gilden and Proffitt, 1989) against the noisy Newton model using a novel manipulation of the standard mass judgment task: making one of the objects invisible post-collision. The noisy Newton model uses the remaining information to predict above-chance performance, while the leading heuristic model predicts chance performance when one or the other final velocity is occluded. An experiment using two different types of occlusion showed better-than-chance performance and response patterns that followed the predictions of the noisy Newton model. The results demonstrate that people can make sensible physical judgments even when information critical for the judgment is missing, and that a Bayesian model can serve as a guide in these situations. Possible algorithmic-level accounts of this task that more closely correspond to the noisy Newton model are explored. PMID:25206345

Combining Video, Audio and Lexical Indicators of Affect in Spontaneous Conversation via Particle Filtering

PubMed Central

Savran, Arman; Cao, Houwei; Shah, Miraj; Nenkova, Ani; Verma, Ragini

2013-01-01

We present experiments on fusing facial video, audio and lexical indicators for affect estimation during dyadic conversations. We use temporal statistics of texture descriptors extracted from facial video, a combination of various acoustic features, and lexical features to create regression based affect estimators for each modality. The single modality regressors are then combined using particle filtering, by treating these independent regression outputs as measurements of the affect states in a Bayesian filtering framework, where previous observations provide prediction about the current state by means of learned affect dynamics. Tested on the Audio-visual Emotion Recognition Challenge dataset, our single modality estimators achieve substantially higher scores than the official baseline method for every dimension of affect. Our filtering-based multi-modality fusion achieves correlation performance of 0.344 (baseline: 0.136) and 0.280 (baseline: 0.096) for the fully continuous and word level sub challenges, respectively. PMID:25300451

Combining Video, Audio and Lexical Indicators of Affect in Spontaneous Conversation via Particle Filtering.

PubMed

Savran, Arman; Cao, Houwei; Shah, Miraj; Nenkova, Ani; Verma, Ragini

2012-01-01

We present experiments on fusing facial video, audio and lexical indicators for affect estimation during dyadic conversations. We use temporal statistics of texture descriptors extracted from facial video, a combination of various acoustic features, and lexical features to create regression based affect estimators for each modality. The single modality regressors are then combined using particle filtering, by treating these independent regression outputs as measurements of the affect states in a Bayesian filtering framework, where previous observations provide prediction about the current state by means of learned affect dynamics. Tested on the Audio-visual Emotion Recognition Challenge dataset, our single modality estimators achieve substantially higher scores than the official baseline method for every dimension of affect. Our filtering-based multi-modality fusion achieves correlation performance of 0.344 (baseline: 0.136) and 0.280 (baseline: 0.096) for the fully continuous and word level sub challenges, respectively.

Stability and structural properties of gene regulation networks with coregulation rules.

PubMed

Warrell, Jonathan; Mhlanga, Musa

2017-05-07

Coregulation of the expression of groups of genes has been extensively demonstrated empirically in bacterial and eukaryotic systems. Such coregulation can arise through the use of shared regulatory motifs, which allow the coordinated expression of modules (and module groups) of functionally related genes across the genome. Coregulation can also arise through the physical association of multi-gene complexes through chromosomal looping, which are then transcribed together. We present a general formalism for modeling coregulation rules in the framework of Random Boolean Networks (RBN), and develop specific models for transcription factor networks with modular structure (including module groups, and multi-input modules (MIM) with autoregulation) and multi-gene complexes (including hierarchical differentiation between multi-gene complex members). We develop a mean-field approach to analyse the dynamical stability of large networks incorporating coregulation, and show that autoregulated MIM and hierarchical gene-complex models can achieve greater stability than networks without coregulation whose rules have matching activation frequency. We provide further analysis of the stability of small networks of both kinds through simulations. We also characterize several general properties of the transients and attractors in the hierarchical coregulation model, and show using simulations that the steady-state distribution factorizes hierarchically as a Bayesian network in a Markov Jump Process analogue of the RBN model. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach to Test Equating

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karabatsos, George; Walker, Stephen G.

2009-01-01

A Bayesian nonparametric model is introduced for score equating. It is applicable to all major equating designs, and has advantages over previous equating models. Unlike the previous models, the Bayesian model accounts for positive dependence between distributions of scores from two tests. The Bayesian model and the previous equating models are…

Model Diagnostics for Bayesian Networks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sinharay, Sandip

2006-01-01

Bayesian networks are frequently used in educational assessments primarily for learning about students' knowledge and skills. There is a lack of works on assessing fit of Bayesian networks. This article employs the posterior predictive model checking method, a popular Bayesian model checking tool, to assess fit of simple Bayesian networks. A…

Prediction of Sybil attack on WSN using Bayesian network and swarm intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muraleedharan, Rajani; Ye, Xiang; Osadciw, Lisa Ann

2008-04-01

Security in wireless sensor networks is typically sacrificed or kept minimal due to limited resources such as memory and battery power. Hence, the sensor nodes are prone to Denial-of-service attacks and detecting the threats is crucial in any application. In this paper, the Sybil attack is analyzed and a novel prediction method, combining Bayesian algorithm and Swarm Intelligence (SI) is proposed. Bayesian Networks (BN) is used in representing and reasoning problems, by modeling the elements of uncertainty. The decision from the BN is applied to SI forming an Hybrid Intelligence Scheme (HIS) to re-route the information and disconnecting the malicious nodes in future routes. A performance comparison based on the prediction using HIS vs. Ant System (AS) helps in prioritizing applications where decisions are time-critical.

Estimating virus occurrence using Bayesian modeling in multiple drinking water systems of the United States.

PubMed

Varughese, Eunice A; Brinkman, Nichole E; Anneken, Emily M; Cashdollar, Jennifer L; Fout, G Shay; Furlong, Edward T; Kolpin, Dana W; Glassmeyer, Susan T; Keely, Scott P

2018-04-01

Drinking water treatment plants rely on purification of contaminated source waters to provide communities with potable water. One group of possible contaminants are enteric viruses. Measurement of viral quantities in environmental water systems are often performed using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or quantitative PCR (qPCR). However, true values may be underestimated due to challenges involved in a multi-step viral concentration process and due to PCR inhibition. In this study, water samples were concentrated from 25 drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs) across the US to study the occurrence of enteric viruses in source water and removal after treatment. The five different types of viruses studied were adenovirus, norovirus GI, norovirus GII, enterovirus, and polyomavirus. Quantitative PCR was performed on all samples to determine presence or absence of these viruses in each sample. Ten DWTPs showed presence of one or more viruses in source water, with four DWTPs having treated drinking water testing positive. Furthermore, PCR inhibition was assessed for each sample using an exogenous amplification control, which indicated that all of the DWTP samples, including source and treated water samples, had some level of inhibition, confirming that inhibition plays an important role in PCR-based assessments of environmental samples. PCR inhibition measurements, viral recovery, and other assessments were incorporated into a Bayesian model to more accurately determine viral load in both source and treated water. Results of the Bayesian model indicated that viruses are present in source water and treated water. By using a Bayesian framework that incorporates inhibition, as well as many other parameters that affect viral detection, this study offers an approach for more accurately estimating the occurrence of viral pathogens in environmental waters. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Novel probabilistic and distributed algorithms for guidance, control, and nonlinear estimation of large-scale multi-agent systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandyopadhyay, Saptarshi

Multi-agent systems are widely used for constructing a desired formation shape, exploring an area, surveillance, coverage, and other cooperative tasks. This dissertation introduces novel algorithms in the three main areas of shape formation, distributed estimation, and attitude control of large-scale multi-agent systems. In the first part of this dissertation, we address the problem of shape formation for thousands to millions of agents. Here, we present two novel algorithms for guiding a large-scale swarm of robotic systems into a desired formation shape in a distributed and scalable manner. These probabilistic swarm guidance algorithms adopt an Eulerian framework, where the physical space is partitioned into bins and the swarm's density distribution over each bin is controlled using tunable Markov chains. In the first algorithm - Probabilistic Swarm Guidance using Inhomogeneous Markov Chains (PSG-IMC) - each agent determines its bin transition probabilities using a time-inhomogeneous Markov chain that is constructed in real-time using feedback from the current swarm distribution. This PSG-IMC algorithm minimizes the expected cost of the transitions required to achieve and maintain the desired formation shape, even when agents are added to or removed from the swarm. The algorithm scales well with a large number of agents and complex formation shapes, and can also be adapted for area exploration applications. In the second algorithm - Probabilistic Swarm Guidance using Optimal Transport (PSG-OT) - each agent determines its bin transition probabilities by solving an optimal transport problem, which is recast as a linear program. In the presence of perfect feedback of the current swarm distribution, this algorithm minimizes the given cost function, guarantees faster convergence, reduces the number of transitions for achieving the desired formation, and is robust to disturbances or damages to the formation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these two proposed swarm guidance algorithms using results from numerical simulations and closed-loop hardware experiments on multiple quadrotors. In the second part of this dissertation, we present two novel discrete-time algorithms for distributed estimation, which track a single target using a network of heterogeneous sensing agents. The Distributed Bayesian Filtering (DBF) algorithm, the sensing agents combine their normalized likelihood functions using the logarithmic opinion pool and the discrete-time dynamic average consensus algorithm. Each agent's estimated likelihood function converges to an error ball centered on the joint likelihood function of the centralized multi-sensor Bayesian filtering algorithm. Using a new proof technique, the convergence, stability, and robustness properties of the DBF algorithm are rigorously characterized. The explicit bounds on the time step of the robust DBF algorithm are shown to depend on the time-scale of the target dynamics. Furthermore, the DBF algorithm for linear-Gaussian models can be cast into a modified form of the Kalman information filter. In the Bayesian Consensus Filtering (BCF) algorithm, the agents combine their estimated posterior pdfs multiple times within each time step using the logarithmic opinion pool scheme. Thus, each agent's consensual pdf minimizes the sum of Kullback-Leibler divergences with the local posterior pdfs. The performance and robust properties of these algorithms are validated using numerical simulations. In the third part of this dissertation, we present an attitude control strategy and a new nonlinear tracking controller for a spacecraft carrying a large object, such as an asteroid or a boulder. If the captured object is larger or comparable in size to the spacecraft and has significant modeling uncertainties, conventional nonlinear control laws that use exact feed-forward cancellation are not suitable because they exhibit a large resultant disturbance torque. The proposed nonlinear tracking control law guarantees global exponential convergence of tracking errors with finite-gain Lp stability in the presence of modeling uncertainties and disturbances, and reduces the resultant disturbance torque. Further, this control law permits the use of any attitude representation and its integral control formulation eliminates any constant disturbance. Under small uncertainties, the best strategy for stabilizing the combined system is to track a fuel-optimal reference trajectory using this nonlinear control law, because it consumes the least amount of fuel. In the presence of large uncertainties, the most effective strategy is to track the derivative plus proportional-derivative based reference trajectory, because it reduces the resultant disturbance torque. The effectiveness of the proposed attitude control law is demonstrated by using results of numerical simulation based on an Asteroid Redirect Mission concept. The new algorithms proposed in this dissertation will facilitate the development of versatile autonomous multi-agent systems that are capable of performing a variety of complex tasks in a robust and scalable manner.

Order priors for Bayesian network discovery with an application to malware phylogeny

DOE PAGES

Oyen, Diane; Anderson, Blake; Sentz, Kari; ...

2017-09-15

Here, Bayesian networks have been used extensively to model and discover dependency relationships among sets of random variables. We learn Bayesian network structure with a combination of human knowledge about the partial ordering of variables and statistical inference of conditional dependencies from observed data. Our approach leverages complementary information from human knowledge and inference from observed data to produce networks that reflect human beliefs about the system as well as to fit the observed data. Applying prior beliefs about partial orderings of variables is an approach distinctly different from existing methods that incorporate prior beliefs about direct dependencies (or edges)more » in a Bayesian network. We provide an efficient implementation of the partial-order prior in a Bayesian structure discovery learning algorithm, as well as an edge prior, showing that both priors meet the local modularity requirement necessary for an efficient Bayesian discovery algorithm. In benchmark studies, the partial-order prior improves the accuracy of Bayesian network structure learning as well as the edge prior, even though order priors are more general. Our primary motivation is in characterizing the evolution of families of malware to aid cyber security analysts. For the problem of malware phylogeny discovery, we find that our algorithm, compared to existing malware phylogeny algorithms, more accurately discovers true dependencies that are missed by other algorithms.« less

Order priors for Bayesian network discovery with an application to malware phylogeny

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oyen, Diane; Anderson, Blake; Sentz, Kari

Here, Bayesian networks have been used extensively to model and discover dependency relationships among sets of random variables. We learn Bayesian network structure with a combination of human knowledge about the partial ordering of variables and statistical inference of conditional dependencies from observed data. Our approach leverages complementary information from human knowledge and inference from observed data to produce networks that reflect human beliefs about the system as well as to fit the observed data. Applying prior beliefs about partial orderings of variables is an approach distinctly different from existing methods that incorporate prior beliefs about direct dependencies (or edges)more » in a Bayesian network. We provide an efficient implementation of the partial-order prior in a Bayesian structure discovery learning algorithm, as well as an edge prior, showing that both priors meet the local modularity requirement necessary for an efficient Bayesian discovery algorithm. In benchmark studies, the partial-order prior improves the accuracy of Bayesian network structure learning as well as the edge prior, even though order priors are more general. Our primary motivation is in characterizing the evolution of families of malware to aid cyber security analysts. For the problem of malware phylogeny discovery, we find that our algorithm, compared to existing malware phylogeny algorithms, more accurately discovers true dependencies that are missed by other algorithms.« less

Bayesian Networks Improve Causal Environmental Assessments for Evidence-Based Policy.

PubMed

Carriger, John F; Barron, Mace G; Newman, Michael C

2016-12-20

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on valued ecological resources. These aspects are demonstrated through hypothetical problem scenarios that explore some major benefits of using Bayesian networks for reasoning and making inferences in evidence-based policy.

Sizing Up the Milky Way: A Bayesian Mixture Model Meta-analysis of Photometric Scale Length Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Licquia, Timothy C.; Newman, Jeffrey A.

2016-11-01

The exponential scale length (L d ) of the Milky Way’s (MW’s) disk is a critical parameter for describing the global physical size of our Galaxy, important both for interpreting other Galactic measurements and helping us to understand how our Galaxy fits into extragalactic contexts. Unfortunately, current estimates span a wide range of values and are often statistically incompatible with one another. Here, we perform a Bayesian meta-analysis to determine an improved, aggregate estimate for L d , utilizing a mixture-model approach to account for the possibility that any one measurement has not properly accounted for all statistical or systematic errors. Within this machinery, we explore a variety of ways of modeling the nature of problematic measurements, and then employ a Bayesian model averaging technique to derive net posterior distributions that incorporate any model-selection uncertainty. Our meta-analysis combines 29 different (15 visible and 14 infrared) photometric measurements of L d available in the literature; these involve a broad assortment of observational data sets, MW models and assumptions, and methodologies, all tabulated herein. Analyzing the visible and infrared measurements separately yields estimates for L d of {2.71}-0.20+0.22 kpc and {2.51}-0.13+0.15 kpc, respectively, whereas considering them all combined yields 2.64 ± 0.13 kpc. The ratio between the visible and infrared scale lengths determined here is very similar to that measured in external spiral galaxies. We use these results to update the model of the Galactic disk from our previous work, constraining its stellar mass to be {4.8}-1.1+1.5× {10}10 M ⊙, and the MW’s total stellar mass to be {5.7}-1.1+1.5× {10}10 M ⊙.

A Bayesian network approach for modeling local failure in lung cancer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Jung Hun; Craft, Jeffrey; Lozi, Rawan Al; Vaidya, Manushka; Meng, Yifan; Deasy, Joseph O.; Bradley, Jeffrey D.; El Naqa, Issam

2011-03-01

Locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients suffer from a high local failure rate following radiotherapy. Despite many efforts to develop new dose-volume models for early detection of tumor local failure, there was no reported significant improvement in their application prospectively. Based on recent studies of biomarker proteins' role in hypoxia and inflammation in predicting tumor response to radiotherapy, we hypothesize that combining physical and biological factors with a suitable framework could improve the overall prediction. To test this hypothesis, we propose a graphical Bayesian network framework for predicting local failure in lung cancer. The proposed approach was tested using two different datasets of locally advanced NSCLC patients treated with radiotherapy. The first dataset was collected retrospectively, which comprises clinical and dosimetric variables only. The second dataset was collected prospectively in which in addition to clinical and dosimetric information, blood was drawn from the patients at various time points to extract candidate biomarkers as well. Our preliminary results show that the proposed method can be used as an efficient method to develop predictive models of local failure in these patients and to interpret relationships among the different variables in the models. We also demonstrate the potential use of heterogeneous physical and biological variables to improve the model prediction. With the first dataset, we achieved better performance compared with competing Bayesian-based classifiers. With the second dataset, the combined model had a slightly higher performance compared to individual physical and biological models, with the biological variables making the largest contribution. Our preliminary results highlight the potential of the proposed integrated approach for predicting post-radiotherapy local failure in NSCLC patients.

Weighting of NMME temperature and precipitation forecasts across Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slater, Louise J.; Villarini, Gabriele; Bradley, A. Allen

2017-09-01

Multi-model ensemble forecasts are obtained by weighting multiple General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to heighten forecast skill and reduce uncertainties. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project facilitates the development of such multi-model forecasting schemes by providing publicly-available hindcasts and forecasts online. Here, temperature and precipitation forecasts are enhanced by leveraging the strengths of eight NMME GCMs (CCSM3, CCSM4, CanCM3, CanCM4, CFSv2, GEOS5, GFDL2.1, and FLORb01) across all forecast months and lead times, for four broad climatic European regions: Temperate, Mediterranean, Humid-Continental and Subarctic-Polar. We compare five different approaches to multi-model weighting based on the equally weighted eight single-model ensembles (EW-8), Bayesian updating (BU) of the eight single-model ensembles (BU-8), BU of the 94 model members (BU-94), BU of the principal components of the eight single-model ensembles (BU-PCA-8) and BU of the principal components of the 94 model members (BU-PCA-94). We assess the forecasting skill of these five multi-models and evaluate their ability to predict some of the costliest historical droughts and floods in recent decades. Results indicate that the simplest approach based on EW-8 preserves model skill, but has considerable biases. The BU and BU-PCA approaches reduce the unconditional biases and negative skill in the forecasts considerably, but they can also sometimes diminish the positive skill in the original forecasts. The BU-PCA models tend to produce lower conditional biases than the BU models and have more homogeneous skill than the other multi-models, but with some loss of skill. The use of 94 NMME model members does not present significant benefits over the use of the 8 single model ensembles. These findings may provide valuable insights for the development of skillful, operational multi-model forecasting systems.

Lunar Terrain and Albedo Reconstruction from Apollo Imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nefian, Ara V.; Kim, Taemin; Broxton, Michael; Moratto, Zach

2010-01-01

Generating accurate three dimensional planetary models and albedo maps is becoming increasingly more important as NASA plans more robotics missions to the Moon in the coming years. This paper describes a novel approach for separation of topography and albedo maps from orbital Lunar images. Our method uses an optimal Bayesian correlator to refine the stereo disparity map and generate a set of accurate digital elevation models (DEM). The albedo maps are obtained using a multi-image formation model that relies on the derived DEMs and the Lunar- Lambert reflectance model. The method is demonstrated on a set of high resolution scanned images from the Apollo era missions.

Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study is to explore Bayesian model averaging in the propensity score context. Previous research on Bayesian propensity score analysis does not take into account model uncertainty. In this regard, an internally consistent Bayesian framework for model building and estimation must also account for model uncertainty. The…

Bayesian modeling of cue interaction: bistability in stereoscopic slant perception.

PubMed

van Ee, Raymond; Adams, Wendy J; Mamassian, Pascal

2003-07-01

Our two eyes receive different views of a visual scene, and the resulting binocular disparities enable us to reconstruct its three-dimensional layout. However, the visual environment is also rich in monocular depth cues. We examined the resulting percept when observers view a scene in which there are large conflicts between the surface slant signaled by binocular disparities and the slant signaled by monocular perspective. For a range of disparity-perspective cue conflicts, many observers experience bistability: They are able to perceive two distinct slants and to flip between the two percepts in a controlled way. We present a Bayesian model that describes the quantitative aspects of perceived slant on the basis of the likelihoods of both perspective and disparity slant information combined with prior assumptions about the shape and orientation of objects in the scene. Our Bayesian approach can be regarded as an overarching framework that allows researchers to study all cue integration aspects-including perceptual decisions--in a unified manner.

Sewer deterioration modeling with condition data lacking historical records.

PubMed

Egger, C; Scheidegger, A; Reichert, P; Maurer, M

2013-11-01

Accurate predictions of future conditions of sewer systems are needed for efficient rehabilitation planning. For this purpose, a range of sewer deterioration models has been proposed which can be improved by calibration with observed sewer condition data. However, if datasets lack historical records, calibration requires a combination of deterioration and sewer rehabilitation models, as the current state of the sewer network reflects the combined effect of both processes. Otherwise, physical sewer lifespans are overestimated as pipes in poor condition that were rehabilitated are no longer represented in the dataset. We therefore propose the combination of a sewer deterioration model with a simple rehabilitation model which can be calibrated with datasets lacking historical information. We use Bayesian inference for parameter estimation due to the limited information content of the data and limited identifiability of the model parameters. A sensitivity analysis gives an insight into the model's robustness against the uncertainty of the prior. The analysis reveals that the model results are principally sensitive to the means of the priors of specific model parameters, which should therefore be elicited with care. The importance sampling technique applied for the sensitivity analysis permitted efficient implementation for regional sensitivity analysis with reasonable computational outlay. Application of the combined model with both simulated and real data shows that it effectively compensates for the bias induced by a lack of historical data. Thus, the novel approach makes it possible to calibrate sewer pipe deterioration models even when historical condition records are lacking. Since at least some prior knowledge of the model parameters is available, the strength of Bayesian inference is particularly evident in the case of small datasets. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A semiparametric Bayesian proportional hazards model for interval censored data with frailty effects.

PubMed

Henschel, Volkmar; Engel, Jutta; Hölzel, Dieter; Mansmann, Ulrich

2009-02-10

Multivariate analysis of interval censored event data based on classical likelihood methods is notoriously cumbersome. Likelihood inference for models which additionally include random effects are not available at all. Developed algorithms bear problems for practical users like: matrix inversion, slow convergence, no assessment of statistical uncertainty. MCMC procedures combined with imputation are used to implement hierarchical models for interval censored data within a Bayesian framework. Two examples from clinical practice demonstrate the handling of clustered interval censored event times as well as multilayer random effects for inter-institutional quality assessment. The software developed is called survBayes and is freely available at CRAN. The proposed software supports the solution of complex analyses in many fields of clinical epidemiology as well as health services research.

A novel Bayesian approach to quantify clinical variables and to determine their spectroscopic counterparts in 1H NMR metabonomic data

PubMed Central

Vehtari, Aki; Mäkinen, Ville-Petteri; Soininen, Pasi; Ingman, Petri; Mäkelä, Sanna M; Savolainen, Markku J; Hannuksela, Minna L; Kaski, Kimmo; Ala-Korpela, Mika

2007-01-01

Background A key challenge in metabonomics is to uncover quantitative associations between multidimensional spectroscopic data and biochemical measures used for disease risk assessment and diagnostics. Here we focus on clinically relevant estimation of lipoprotein lipids by 1H NMR spectroscopy of serum. Results A Bayesian methodology, with a biochemical motivation, is presented for a real 1H NMR metabonomics data set of 75 serum samples. Lipoprotein lipid concentrations were independently obtained for these samples via ultracentrifugation and specific biochemical assays. The Bayesian models were constructed by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and they showed remarkably good quantitative performance, the predictive R-values being 0.985 for the very low density lipoprotein triglycerides (VLDL-TG), 0.787 for the intermediate, 0.943 for the low, and 0.933 for the high density lipoprotein cholesterol (IDL-C, LDL-C and HDL-C, respectively). The modelling produced a kernel-based reformulation of the data, the parameters of which coincided with the well-known biochemical characteristics of the 1H NMR spectra; particularly for VLDL-TG and HDL-C the Bayesian methodology was able to clearly identify the most characteristic resonances within the heavily overlapping information in the spectra. For IDL-C and LDL-C the resulting model kernels were more complex than those for VLDL-TG and HDL-C, probably reflecting the severe overlap of the IDL and LDL resonances in the 1H NMR spectra. Conclusion The systematic use of Bayesian MCMC analysis is computationally demanding. Nevertheless, the combination of high-quality quantification and the biochemical rationale of the resulting models is expected to be useful in the field of metabonomics. PMID:17493257

Reconstruction of calmodulin single-molecule FRET states, dye interactions, and CaMKII peptide binding by MultiNest and classic maximum entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeVore, Matthew S.; Gull, Stephen F.; Johnson, Carey K.

2013-08-01

We analyzed single molecule FRET burst measurements using Bayesian nested sampling. The MultiNest algorithm produces accurate FRET efficiency distributions from single-molecule data. FRET efficiency distributions recovered by MultiNest and classic maximum entropy are compared for simulated data and for calmodulin labeled at residues 44 and 117. MultiNest compares favorably with maximum entropy analysis for simulated data, judged by the Bayesian evidence. FRET efficiency distributions recovered for calmodulin labeled with two different FRET dye pairs depended on the dye pair and changed upon Ca2+ binding. We also looked at the FRET efficiency distributions of calmodulin bound to the calcium/calmodulin dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII) binding domain. For both dye pairs, the FRET efficiency distribution collapsed to a single peak in the case of calmodulin bound to the CaMKII peptide. These measurements strongly suggest that consideration of dye-protein interactions is crucial in forming an accurate picture of protein conformations from FRET data.

Reconstruction of Calmodulin Single-Molecule FRET States, Dye-Interactions, and CaMKII Peptide Binding by MultiNest and Classic Maximum Entropy

PubMed Central

DeVore, Matthew S.; Gull, Stephen F.; Johnson, Carey K.

2013-01-01

We analyze single molecule FRET burst measurements using Bayesian nested sampling. The MultiNest algorithm produces accurate FRET efficiency distributions from single-molecule data. FRET efficiency distributions recovered by MultiNest and classic maximum entropy are compared for simulated data and for calmodulin labeled at residues 44 and 117. MultiNest compares favorably with maximum entropy analysis for simulated data, judged by the Bayesian evidence. FRET efficiency distributions recovered for calmodulin labeled with two different FRET dye pairs depended on the dye pair and changed upon Ca2+ binding. We also looked at the FRET efficiency distributions of calmodulin bound to the calcium/calmodulin dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII) binding domain. For both dye pairs, the FRET efficiency distribution collapsed to a single peak in the case of calmodulin bound to the CaMKII peptide. These measurements strongly suggest that consideration of dye-protein interactions is crucial in forming an accurate picture of protein conformations from FRET data. PMID:24223465

Reconstruction of Calmodulin Single-Molecule FRET States, Dye-Interactions, and CaMKII Peptide Binding by MultiNest and Classic Maximum Entropy.

PubMed

Devore, Matthew S; Gull, Stephen F; Johnson, Carey K

2013-08-30

We analyze single molecule FRET burst measurements using Bayesian nested sampling. The MultiNest algorithm produces accurate FRET efficiency distributions from single-molecule data. FRET efficiency distributions recovered by MultiNest and classic maximum entropy are compared for simulated data and for calmodulin labeled at residues 44 and 117. MultiNest compares favorably with maximum entropy analysis for simulated data, judged by the Bayesian evidence. FRET efficiency distributions recovered for calmodulin labeled with two different FRET dye pairs depended on the dye pair and changed upon Ca 2+ binding. We also looked at the FRET efficiency distributions of calmodulin bound to the calcium/calmodulin dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII) binding domain. For both dye pairs, the FRET efficiency distribution collapsed to a single peak in the case of calmodulin bound to the CaMKII peptide. These measurements strongly suggest that consideration of dye-protein interactions is crucial in forming an accurate picture of protein conformations from FRET data.

Bayesian kernel machine regression for estimating the health effects of multi-pollutant mixtures.

PubMed

Bobb, Jennifer F; Valeri, Linda; Claus Henn, Birgit; Christiani, David C; Wright, Robert O; Mazumdar, Maitreyi; Godleski, John J; Coull, Brent A

2015-07-01

Because humans are invariably exposed to complex chemical mixtures, estimating the health effects of multi-pollutant exposures is of critical concern in environmental epidemiology, and to regulatory agencies such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. However, most health effects studies focus on single agents or consider simple two-way interaction models, in part because we lack the statistical methodology to more realistically capture the complexity of mixed exposures. We introduce Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) as a new approach to study mixtures, in which the health outcome is regressed on a flexible function of the mixture (e.g. air pollution or toxic waste) components that is specified using a kernel function. In high-dimensional settings, a novel hierarchical variable selection approach is incorporated to identify important mixture components and account for the correlated structure of the mixture. Simulation studies demonstrate the success of BKMR in estimating the exposure-response function and in identifying the individual components of the mixture responsible for health effects. We demonstrate the features of the method through epidemiology and toxicology applications. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

BN-FLEMOps pluvial - A probabilistic multi-variable loss estimation model for pluvial floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roezer, V.; Kreibich, H.; Schroeter, K.; Doss-Gollin, J.; Lall, U.; Merz, B.

2017-12-01

Pluvial flood events, such as in Copenhagen (Denmark) in 2011, Beijing (China) in 2012 or Houston (USA) in 2016, have caused severe losses to urban dwellings in recent years. These floods are caused by storm events with high rainfall rates well above the design levels of urban drainage systems, which lead to inundation of streets and buildings. A projected increase in frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events in many areas and an ongoing urbanization may increase pluvial flood losses in the future. For an efficient risk assessment and adaptation to pluvial floods, a quantification of the flood risk is needed. Few loss models have been developed particularly for pluvial floods. These models usually use simple waterlevel- or rainfall-loss functions and come with very high uncertainties. To account for these uncertainties and improve the loss estimation, we present a probabilistic multi-variable loss estimation model for pluvial floods based on empirical data. The model was developed in a two-step process using a machine learning approach and a comprehensive database comprising 783 records of direct building and content damage of private households. The data was gathered through surveys after four different pluvial flood events in Germany between 2005 and 2014. In a first step, linear and non-linear machine learning algorithms, such as tree-based and penalized regression models were used to identify the most important loss influencing factors among a set of 55 candidate variables. These variables comprise hydrological and hydraulic aspects, early warning, precaution, building characteristics and the socio-economic status of the household. In a second step, the most important loss influencing variables were used to derive a probabilistic multi-variable pluvial flood loss estimation model based on Bayesian Networks. Two different networks were tested: a score-based network learned from the data and a network based on expert knowledge. Loss predictions are made through Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. With the ability to cope with incomplete information and use expert knowledge, as well as inherently providing quantitative uncertainty information, it is shown that loss models based on BNs are superior to deterministic approaches for pluvial flood risk assessment.

Stream Splitting in Support of Intrusion Detection

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-06-01

increased. Every computer on the Internet has no need to see the traffic of every other computer on the Internet. Indeed if this was so, nothing would get ...distinguishes the stream splitter from other network analysis tools. B. HIGH LEVEL DESIGN To get the desired level of performance, a multi-threaded...of greater concern than added accuracy of a Bayesian model. This is a case where close is good enough . b. PassiveSensors Though similar to active

Bayesian performance metrics and small system integration in recent homeland security and defense applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jannson, Tomasz; Kostrzewski, Andrew; Patton, Edward; Pradhan, Ranjit; Shih, Min-Yi; Walter, Kevin; Savant, Gajendra; Shie, Rick; Forrester, Thomas

2010-04-01

In this paper, Bayesian inference is applied to performance metrics definition of the important class of recent Homeland Security and defense systems called binary sensors, including both (internal) system performance and (external) CONOPS. The medical analogy is used to define the PPV (Positive Predictive Value), the basic Bayesian metrics parameter of the binary sensors. Also, Small System Integration (SSI) is discussed in the context of recent Homeland Security and defense applications, emphasizing a highly multi-technological approach, within the broad range of clusters ("nexus") of electronics, optics, X-ray physics, γ-ray physics, and other disciplines.

Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data.

PubMed

Guo, Xuan; Liu, Bing; Chen, Le; Chen, Guantao; Pan, Yi; Zhang, Jing

2016-01-01

This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM), Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM), and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM), and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

Combining Metabolite-Based Pharmacophores with Bayesian Machine Learning Models for Mycobacterium tuberculosis Drug Discovery.

PubMed

Ekins, Sean; Madrid, Peter B; Sarker, Malabika; Li, Shao-Gang; Mittal, Nisha; Kumar, Pradeep; Wang, Xin; Stratton, Thomas P; Zimmerman, Matthew; Talcott, Carolyn; Bourbon, Pauline; Travers, Mike; Yadav, Maneesh; Freundlich, Joel S

2015-01-01

Integrated computational approaches for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) are useful to identify new molecules that could lead to future tuberculosis (TB) drugs. Our approach uses information derived from the TBCyc pathway and genome database, the Collaborative Drug Discovery TB database combined with 3D pharmacophores and dual event Bayesian models of whole-cell activity and lack of cytotoxicity. We have prioritized a large number of molecules that may act as mimics of substrates and metabolites in the TB metabolome. We computationally searched over 200,000 commercial molecules using 66 pharmacophores based on substrates and metabolites from Mtb and further filtering with Bayesian models. We ultimately tested 110 compounds in vitro that resulted in two compounds of interest, BAS 04912643 and BAS 00623753 (MIC of 2.5 and 5 μg/mL, respectively). These molecules were used as a starting point for hit-to-lead optimization. The most promising class proved to be the quinoxaline di-N-oxides, evidenced by transcriptional profiling to induce mRNA level perturbations most closely resembling known protonophores. One of these, SRI58 exhibited an MIC = 1.25 μg/mL versus Mtb and a CC50 in Vero cells of >40 μg/mL, while featuring fair Caco-2 A-B permeability (2.3 x 10-6 cm/s), kinetic solubility (125 μM at pH 7.4 in PBS) and mouse metabolic stability (63.6% remaining after 1 h incubation with mouse liver microsomes). Despite demonstration of how a combined bioinformatics/cheminformatics approach afforded a small molecule with promising in vitro profiles, we found that SRI58 did not exhibit quantifiable blood levels in mice.

Nitrate source apportionment using a combined dual isotope, chemical and bacterial property, and Bayesian model approach in river systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Yongqiu; Li, Yuefei; Zhang, Xinyu; Yan, Xiaoyuan

2017-01-01

Nitrate (NO3-) pollution is a serious problem worldwide, particularly in countries with intensive agricultural and population activities. Previous studies have used δ15N-NO3- and δ18O-NO3- to determine the NO3- sources in rivers. However, this approach is subject to substantial uncertainties and limitations because of the numerous NO3- sources, the wide isotopic ranges, and the existing isotopic fractionations. In this study, we outline a combined procedure for improving the determination of NO3- sources in a paddy agriculture-urban gradient watershed in eastern China. First, the main sources of NO3- in the Qinhuai River were examined by the dual-isotope biplot approach, in which we narrowed the isotope ranges using site-specific isotopic results. Next, the bacterial groups and chemical properties of the river water were analyzed to verify these sources. Finally, we introduced a Bayesian model to apportion the spatiotemporal variations of the NO3- sources. Denitrification was first incorporated into the Bayesian model because denitrification plays an important role in the nitrogen pathway. The results showed that fertilizer contributed large amounts of NO3- to the surface water in traditional agricultural regions, whereas manure effluents were the dominant NO3- source in intensified agricultural regions, especially during the wet seasons. Sewage effluents were important in all three land uses and exhibited great differences between the dry season and the wet season. This combined analysis quantitatively delineates the proportion of NO3- sources from paddy agriculture to urban river water for both dry and wet seasons and incorporates isotopic fractionation and uncertainties in the source compositions.

Combining Metabolite-Based Pharmacophores with Bayesian Machine Learning Models for Mycobacterium tuberculosis Drug Discovery

PubMed Central

Sarker, Malabika; Li, Shao-Gang; Mittal, Nisha; Kumar, Pradeep; Wang, Xin; Stratton, Thomas P.; Zimmerman, Matthew; Talcott, Carolyn; Bourbon, Pauline; Travers, Mike; Yadav, Maneesh

2015-01-01

Integrated computational approaches for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) are useful to identify new molecules that could lead to future tuberculosis (TB) drugs. Our approach uses information derived from the TBCyc pathway and genome database, the Collaborative Drug Discovery TB database combined with 3D pharmacophores and dual event Bayesian models of whole-cell activity and lack of cytotoxicity. We have prioritized a large number of molecules that may act as mimics of substrates and metabolites in the TB metabolome. We computationally searched over 200,000 commercial molecules using 66 pharmacophores based on substrates and metabolites from Mtb and further filtering with Bayesian models. We ultimately tested 110 compounds in vitro that resulted in two compounds of interest, BAS 04912643 and BAS 00623753 (MIC of 2.5 and 5 μg/mL, respectively). These molecules were used as a starting point for hit-to-lead optimization. The most promising class proved to be the quinoxaline di-N-oxides, evidenced by transcriptional profiling to induce mRNA level perturbations most closely resembling known protonophores. One of these, SRI58 exhibited an MIC = 1.25 μg/mL versus Mtb and a CC50 in Vero cells of >40 μg/mL, while featuring fair Caco-2 A-B permeability (2.3 x 10−6 cm/s), kinetic solubility (125 μM at pH 7.4 in PBS) and mouse metabolic stability (63.6% remaining after 1 h incubation with mouse liver microsomes). Despite demonstration of how a combined bioinformatics/cheminformatics approach afforded a small molecule with promising in vitro profiles, we found that SRI58 did not exhibit quantifiable blood levels in mice. PMID:26517557

Multimodal, high-dimensional, model-based, Bayesian inverse problems with applications in biomechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franck, I. M.; Koutsourelakis, P. S.

2017-01-01

This paper is concerned with the numerical solution of model-based, Bayesian inverse problems. We are particularly interested in cases where the cost of each likelihood evaluation (forward-model call) is expensive and the number of unknown (latent) variables is high. This is the setting in many problems in computational physics where forward models with nonlinear PDEs are used and the parameters to be calibrated involve spatio-temporarily varying coefficients, which upon discretization give rise to a high-dimensional vector of unknowns. One of the consequences of the well-documented ill-posedness of inverse problems is the possibility of multiple solutions. While such information is contained in the posterior density in Bayesian formulations, the discovery of a single mode, let alone multiple, poses a formidable computational task. The goal of the present paper is two-fold. On one hand, we propose approximate, adaptive inference strategies using mixture densities to capture multi-modal posteriors. On the other, we extend our work in [1] with regard to effective dimensionality reduction techniques that reveal low-dimensional subspaces where the posterior variance is mostly concentrated. We validate the proposed model by employing Importance Sampling which confirms that the bias introduced is small and can be efficiently corrected if the analyst wishes to do so. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed strategy in nonlinear elastography where the identification of the mechanical properties of biological materials can inform non-invasive, medical diagnosis. The discovery of multiple modes (solutions) in such problems is critical in achieving the diagnostic objectives.

A Bayesian account of quantum histories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marlow, Thomas

2006-05-15

We investigate whether quantum history theories can be consistent with Bayesian reasoning and whether such an analysis helps clarify the interpretation of such theories. First, we summarise and extend recent work categorising two different approaches to formalising multi-time measurements in quantum theory. The standard approach consists of describing an ordered series of measurements in terms of history propositions with non-additive 'probabilities.' The non-standard approach consists of defining multi-time measurements to consist of sets of exclusive and exhaustive history propositions and recovering the single-time exclusivity of results when discussing single-time history propositions. We analyse whether such history propositions can be consistentmore » with Bayes' rule. We show that certain class of histories are given a natural Bayesian interpretation, namely, the linearly positive histories originally introduced by Goldstein and Page. Thus, we argue that this gives a certain amount of interpretational clarity to the non-standard approach. We also attempt a justification of our analysis using Cox's axioms of probability theory.« less

Simulation of an ensemble of future climate time series with an hourly weather generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, E.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Kim, J.

2010-12-01

There is evidence that climate change is occurring in many regions of the world. The necessity of climate change predictions at the local scale and fine temporal resolution is thus warranted for hydrological, ecological, geomorphological, and agricultural applications that can provide thematic insights into the corresponding impacts. Numerous downscaling techniques have been proposed to bridge the gap between the spatial scales adopted in General Circulation Models (GCM) and regional analyses. Nevertheless, the time and spatial resolutions obtained as well as the type of meteorological variables may not be sufficient for detailed studies of climate change effects at the local scales. In this context, this study presents a stochastic downscaling technique that makes use of an hourly weather generator to simulate time series of predicted future climate. Using a Bayesian approach, the downscaling procedure derives distributions of factors of change for several climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of GCMs. Factors of change are sampled from their distributions using a Monte Carlo technique to entirely account for the probabilistic information obtained with the Bayesian multi-model ensemble. Factors of change are subsequently applied to the statistics derived from observations to re-evaluate the parameters of the weather generator. The weather generator can reproduce a wide set of climate variables and statistics over a range of temporal scales, from extremes, to the low-frequency inter-annual variability. The final result of such a procedure is the generation of an ensemble of hourly time series of meteorological variables that can be considered as representative of future climate, as inferred from GCMs. The generated ensemble of scenarios also accounts for the uncertainty derived from multiple GCMs used in downscaling. Applications of the procedure in reproducing present and future climates are presented for different locations world-wide: Tucson (AZ), Detroit (MI), and Firenze (Italy). The stochastic downscaling is carried out with eight GCMs from the CMIP3 multi-model dataset (IPCC 4AR, A1B scenario).

Examining the evidence for dynamical dark energy.

PubMed

Zhao, Gong-Bo; Crittenden, Robert G; Pogosian, Levon; Zhang, Xinmin

2012-10-26

We apply a new nonparametric Bayesian method for reconstructing the evolution history of the equation of state w of dark energy, based on applying a correlated prior for w(z), to a collection of cosmological data. We combine the latest supernova (SNLS 3 year or Union 2.1), cosmic microwave background, redshift space distortion, and the baryonic acoustic oscillation measurements (including BOSS, WiggleZ, and 6dF) and find that the cosmological constant appears consistent with current data, but that a dynamical dark energy model which evolves from w<-1 at z~0.25 to w>-1 at higher redshift is mildly favored. Estimates of the Bayesian evidence show little preference between the cosmological constant model and the dynamical model for a range of correlated prior choices. Looking towards future data, we find that the best fit models for current data could be well distinguished from the ΛCDM model by observations such as Planck and Euclid-like surveys.

Bayesian adaptive phase II screening design for combination trials

PubMed Central

Cai, Chunyan; Yuan, Ying; Johnson, Valen E

2013-01-01

Background Trials of combination therapies for the treatment of cancer are playing an increasingly important role in the battle against this disease. To more efficiently handle the large number of combination therapies that must be tested, we propose a novel Bayesian phase II adaptive screening design to simultaneously select among possible treatment combinations involving multiple agents. Methods Our design is based on formulating the selection procedure as a Bayesian hypothesis testing problem in which the superiority of each treatment combination is equated to a single hypothesis. During the trial conduct, we use the current values of the posterior probabilities of all hypotheses to adaptively allocate patients to treatment combinations. Results Simulation studies show that the proposed design substantially outperforms the conventional multiarm balanced factorial trial design. The proposed design yields a significantly higher probability for selecting the best treatment while allocating substantially more patients to efficacious treatments. Limitations The proposed design is most appropriate for the trials combining multiple agents and screening out the efficacious combination to be further investigated. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian adaptive phase II screening design substantially outperformed the conventional complete factorial design. Our design allocates more patients to better treatments while providing higher power to identify the best treatment at the end of the trial. PMID:23359875

Kinematic Structural Modelling in Bayesian Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaaf, Alexander; de la Varga, Miguel; Florian Wellmann, J.

2017-04-01

We commonly capture our knowledge about the spatial distribution of distinct geological lithologies in the form of 3-D geological models. Several methods exist to create these models, each with its own strengths and limitations. We present here an approach to combine the functionalities of two modeling approaches - implicit interpolation and kinematic modelling methods - into one framework, while explicitly considering parameter uncertainties and thus model uncertainty. In recent work, we proposed an approach to implement implicit modelling algorithms into Bayesian networks. This was done to address the issues of input data uncertainty and integration of geological information from varying sources in the form of geological likelihood functions. However, one general shortcoming of implicit methods is that they usually do not take any physical constraints into consideration, which can result in unrealistic model outcomes and artifacts. On the other hand, kinematic structural modelling intends to reconstruct the history of a geological system based on physically driven kinematic events. This type of modelling incorporates simplified, physical laws into the model, at the cost of a substantial increment of usable uncertain parameters. In the work presented here, we show an integration of these two different modelling methodologies, taking advantage of the strengths of both of them. First, we treat the two types of models separately, capturing the information contained in the kinematic models and their specific parameters in the form of likelihood functions, in order to use them in the implicit modelling scheme. We then go further and combine the two modelling approaches into one single Bayesian network. This enables the direct flow of information between the parameters of the kinematic modelling step and the implicit modelling step and links the exclusive input data and likelihoods of the two different modelling algorithms into one probabilistic inference framework. In addition, we use the capabilities of Noddy to analyze the topology of structural models to demonstrate how topological information, such as the connectivity of two layers across an unconformity, can be used as a likelihood function. In an application to a synthetic case study, we show that our approach leads to a successful combination of the two different modelling concepts. Specifically, we show that we derive ensemble realizations of implicit models that now incorporate the knowledge of the kinematic aspects, representing an important step forward in the integration of knowledge and a corresponding estimation of uncertainties in structural geological models.

Inferring soil salinity in a drip irrigation system from multi-configuration EMI measurements using adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaib Jadoon, Khan; Umer Altaf, Muhammad; McCabe, Matthew Francis; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Muhammad, Nisar; Moghadas, Davood; Weihermüller, Lutz

2017-10-01

A substantial interpretation of electromagnetic induction (EMI) measurements requires quantifying optimal model parameters and uncertainty of a nonlinear inverse problem. For this purpose, an adaptive Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is used to assess multi-orientation and multi-offset EMI measurements in an agriculture field with non-saline and saline soil. In MCMC the posterior distribution is computed using Bayes' rule. The electromagnetic forward model based on the full solution of Maxwell's equations was used to simulate the apparent electrical conductivity measured with the configurations of EMI instrument, the CMD Mini-Explorer. Uncertainty in the parameters for the three-layered earth model are investigated by using synthetic data. Our results show that in the scenario of non-saline soil, the parameters of layer thickness as compared to layers electrical conductivity are not very informative and are therefore difficult to resolve. Application of the proposed MCMC-based inversion to field measurements in a drip irrigation system demonstrates that the parameters of the model can be well estimated for the saline soil as compared to the non-saline soil, and provides useful insight about parameter uncertainty for the assessment of the model outputs.

A Bayesian approach for convex combination of two Gumbel-Barnett copulas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández, M.; González-López, V. A.

2013-10-01

In this paper it was applied a new Bayesian approach to model the dependence between two variables of interest in public policy: "Gonorrhea Rates per 100,000 Population" and "400% Federal Poverty Level and over" with a small number of paired observations (one pair for each U.S. state). We use a mixture of Gumbel-Barnett copulas suitable to represent situations with weak and negative dependence, which is the case treated here. The methodology allows even making a prediction of the dependence between the variables from one year to another, showing whether there was any alteration in the dependence.

Bayesian Software Health Management for Aircraft Guidance, Navigation, and Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schumann, Johann; Mbaya, Timmy; Menghoel, Ole

2011-01-01

Modern aircraft, both piloted fly-by-wire commercial aircraft as well as UAVs, more and more depend on highly complex safety critical software systems with many sensors and computer-controlled actuators. Despite careful design and V&V of the software, severe incidents have happened due to malfunctioning software. In this paper, we discuss the use of Bayesian networks (BNs) to monitor the health of the on-board software and sensor system, and to perform advanced on-board diagnostic reasoning. We will focus on the approach to develop reliable and robust health models for the combined software and sensor systems.

Multi-state models for colon cancer recurrence and death with a cured fraction.

PubMed

Conlon, A S C; Taylor, J M G; Sargent, D J

2014-05-10

In cancer clinical trials, patients often experience a recurrence of disease prior to the outcome of interest, overall survival. Additionally, for many cancers, there is a cured fraction of the population who will never experience a recurrence. There is often interest in how different covariates affect the probability of being cured of disease and the time to recurrence, time to death, and time to death after recurrence. We propose a multi-state Markov model with an incorporated cured fraction to jointly model recurrence and death in colon cancer. A Bayesian estimation strategy is used to obtain parameter estimates. The model can be used to assess how individual covariates affect the probability of being cured and each of the transition rates. Checks for the adequacy of the model fit and for the functional forms of covariates are explored. The methods are applied to data from 12 randomized trials in colon cancer, where we show common effects of specific covariates across the trials. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bayesian Model Selection under Time Constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoege, M.; Nowak, W.; Illman, W. A.

2017-12-01

Bayesian model selection (BMS) provides a consistent framework for rating and comparing models in multi-model inference. In cases where models of vastly different complexity compete with each other, we also face vastly different computational runtimes of such models. For instance, time series of a quantity of interest can be simulated by an autoregressive process model that takes even less than a second for one run, or by a partial differential equations-based model with runtimes up to several hours or even days. The classical BMS is based on a quantity called Bayesian model evidence (BME). It determines the model weights in the selection process and resembles a trade-off between bias of a model and its complexity. However, in practice, the runtime of models is another weight relevant factor for model selection. Hence, we believe that it should be included, leading to an overall trade-off problem between bias, variance and computing effort. We approach this triple trade-off from the viewpoint of our ability to generate realizations of the models under a given computational budget. One way to obtain BME values is through sampling-based integration techniques. We argue with the fact that more expensive models can be sampled much less under time constraints than faster models (in straight proportion to their runtime). The computed evidence in favor of a more expensive model is statistically less significant than the evidence computed in favor of a faster model, since sampling-based strategies are always subject to statistical sampling error. We present a straightforward way to include this misbalance into the model weights that are the basis for model selection. Our approach follows directly from the idea of insufficient significance. It is based on a computationally cheap bootstrapping error estimate of model evidence and is easy to implement. The approach is illustrated in a small synthetic modeling study.

Bayesian multimodel inference of soil microbial respiration models: Theory, application and future prospective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elshall, A. S.; Ye, M.; Niu, G. Y.; Barron-Gafford, G.

2015-12-01

Models in biogeoscience involve uncertainties in observation data, model inputs, model structure, model processes and modeling scenarios. To accommodate for different sources of uncertainty, multimodal analysis such as model combination, model selection, model elimination or model discrimination are becoming more popular. To illustrate theoretical and practical challenges of multimodal analysis, we use an example about microbial soil respiration modeling. Global soil respiration releases more than ten times more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere than all anthropogenic emissions. Thus, improving our understanding of microbial soil respiration is essential for improving climate change models. This study focuses on a poorly understood phenomena, which is the soil microbial respiration pulses in response to episodic rainfall pulses (the "Birch effect"). We hypothesize that the "Birch effect" is generated by the following three mechanisms. To test our hypothesis, we developed and assessed five evolving microbial-enzyme models against field measurements from a semiarid Savannah that is characterized by pulsed precipitation. These five model evolve step-wise such that the first model includes none of these three mechanism, while the fifth model includes the three mechanisms. The basic component of Bayesian multimodal analysis is the estimation of marginal likelihood to rank the candidate models based on their overall likelihood with respect to observation data. The first part of the study focuses on using this Bayesian scheme to discriminate between these five candidate models. The second part discusses some theoretical and practical challenges, which are mainly the effect of likelihood function selection and the marginal likelihood estimation methods on both model ranking and Bayesian model averaging. The study shows that making valid inference from scientific data is not a trivial task, since we are not only uncertain about the candidate scientific models, but also about the statistical methods that are used to discriminate between these models.

Feature selection for elderly faller classification based on wearable sensors.

PubMed

Howcroft, Jennifer; Kofman, Jonathan; Lemaire, Edward D

2017-05-30

Wearable sensors can be used to derive numerous gait pattern features for elderly fall risk and faller classification; however, an appropriate feature set is required to avoid high computational costs and the inclusion of irrelevant features. The objectives of this study were to identify and evaluate smaller feature sets for faller classification from large feature sets derived from wearable accelerometer and pressure-sensing insole gait data. A convenience sample of 100 older adults (75.5 ± 6.7 years; 76 non-fallers, 24 fallers based on 6 month retrospective fall occurrence) walked 7.62 m while wearing pressure-sensing insoles and tri-axial accelerometers at the head, pelvis, left and right shanks. Feature selection was performed using correlation-based feature selection (CFS), fast correlation based filter (FCBF), and Relief-F algorithms. Faller classification was performed using multi-layer perceptron neural network, naïve Bayesian, and support vector machine classifiers, with 75:25 single stratified holdout and repeated random sampling. The best performing model was a support vector machine with 78% accuracy, 26% sensitivity, 95% specificity, 0.36 F1 score, and 0.31 MCC and one posterior pelvis accelerometer input feature (left acceleration standard deviation). The second best model achieved better sensitivity (44%) and used a support vector machine with 74% accuracy, 83% specificity, 0.44 F1 score, and 0.29 MCC. This model had ten input features: maximum, mean and standard deviation posterior acceleration; maximum, mean and standard deviation anterior acceleration; mean superior acceleration; and three impulse features. The best multi-sensor model sensitivity (56%) was achieved using posterior pelvis and both shank accelerometers and a naïve Bayesian classifier. The best single-sensor model sensitivity (41%) was achieved using the posterior pelvis accelerometer and a naïve Bayesian classifier. Feature selection provided models with smaller feature sets and improved faller classification compared to faller classification without feature selection. CFS and FCBF provided the best feature subset (one posterior pelvis accelerometer feature) for faller classification. However, better sensitivity was achieved by the second best model based on a Relief-F feature subset with three pressure-sensing insole features and seven head accelerometer features. Feature selection should be considered as an important step in faller classification using wearable sensors.

An improved approximate-Bayesian model-choice method for estimating shared evolutionary history

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background To understand biological diversification, it is important to account for large-scale processes that affect the evolutionary history of groups of co-distributed populations of organisms. Such events predict temporally clustered divergences times, a pattern that can be estimated using genetic data from co-distributed species. I introduce a new approximate-Bayesian method for comparative phylogeographical model-choice that estimates the temporal distribution of divergences across taxa from multi-locus DNA sequence data. The model is an extension of that implemented in msBayes. Results By reparameterizing the model, introducing more flexible priors on demographic and divergence-time parameters, and implementing a non-parametric Dirichlet-process prior over divergence models, I improved the robustness, accuracy, and power of the method for estimating shared evolutionary history across taxa. Conclusions The results demonstrate the improved performance of the new method is due to (1) more appropriate priors on divergence-time and demographic parameters that avoid prohibitively small marginal likelihoods for models with more divergence events, and (2) the Dirichlet-process providing a flexible prior on divergence histories that does not strongly disfavor models with intermediate numbers of divergence events. The new method yields more robust estimates of posterior uncertainty, and thus greatly reduces the tendency to incorrectly estimate models of shared evolutionary history with strong support. PMID:24992937

Quantifying the uncertainty of nonpoint source attribution in distributed water quality models: A Bayesian assessment of SWAT's sediment export predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wellen, Christopher; Arhonditsis, George B.; Long, Tanya; Boyd, Duncan

2014-11-01

Spatially distributed nonpoint source watershed models are essential tools to estimate the magnitude and sources of diffuse pollution. However, little work has been undertaken to understand the sources and ramifications of the uncertainty involved in their use. In this study we conduct the first Bayesian uncertainty analysis of the water quality components of the SWAT model, one of the most commonly used distributed nonpoint source models. Working in Southern Ontario, we apply three Bayesian configurations for calibrating SWAT to Redhill Creek, an urban catchment, and Grindstone Creek, an agricultural one. We answer four interrelated questions: can SWAT determine suspended sediment sources with confidence when end of basin data is used for calibration? How does uncertainty propagate from the discharge submodel to the suspended sediment submodels? Do the estimated sediment sources vary when different calibration approaches are used? Can we combine the knowledge gained from different calibration approaches? We show that: (i) despite reasonable fit at the basin outlet, the simulated sediment sources are subject to uncertainty sufficient to undermine the typical approach of reliance on a single, best fit simulation; (ii) more than a third of the uncertainty of sediment load predictions may stem from the discharge submodel; (iii) estimated sediment sources do vary significantly across the three statistical configurations of model calibration despite end-of-basin predictions being virtually identical; and (iv) Bayesian model averaging is an approach that can synthesize predictions when a number of adequate distributed models make divergent source apportionments. We conclude with recommendations for future research to reduce the uncertainty encountered when using distributed nonpoint source models for source apportionment.

Functional Multi-Locus QTL Mapping of Temporal Trends in Scots Pine Wood Traits

PubMed Central

Li, Zitong; Hallingbäck, Henrik R.; Abrahamsson, Sara; Fries, Anders; Gull, Bengt Andersson; Sillanpää, Mikko J.; García-Gil, M. Rosario

2014-01-01

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping of wood properties in conifer species has focused on single time point measurements or on trait means based on heterogeneous wood samples (e.g., increment cores), thus ignoring systematic within-tree trends. In this study, functional QTL mapping was performed for a set of important wood properties in increment cores from a 17-yr-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) full-sib family with the aim of detecting wood trait QTL for general intercepts (means) and for linear slopes by increasing cambial age. Two multi-locus functional QTL analysis approaches were proposed and their performances were compared on trait datasets comprising 2 to 9 time points, 91 to 455 individual tree measurements and genotype datasets of amplified length polymorphisms (AFLP), and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. The first method was a multilevel LASSO analysis whereby trend parameter estimation and QTL mapping were conducted consecutively; the second method was our Bayesian linear mixed model whereby trends and underlying genetic effects were estimated simultaneously. We also compared several different hypothesis testing methods under either the LASSO or the Bayesian framework to perform QTL inference. In total, five and four significant QTL were observed for the intercepts and slopes, respectively, across wood traits such as earlywood percentage, wood density, radial fiberwidth, and spiral grain angle. Four of these QTL were represented by candidate gene SNPs, thus providing promising targets for future research in QTL mapping and molecular function. Bayesian and LASSO methods both detected similar sets of QTL given datasets that comprised large numbers of individuals. PMID:25305041

Functional multi-locus QTL mapping of temporal trends in Scots pine wood traits.

PubMed

Li, Zitong; Hallingbäck, Henrik R; Abrahamsson, Sara; Fries, Anders; Gull, Bengt Andersson; Sillanpää, Mikko J; García-Gil, M Rosario

2014-10-09

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping of wood properties in conifer species has focused on single time point measurements or on trait means based on heterogeneous wood samples (e.g., increment cores), thus ignoring systematic within-tree trends. In this study, functional QTL mapping was performed for a set of important wood properties in increment cores from a 17-yr-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) full-sib family with the aim of detecting wood trait QTL for general intercepts (means) and for linear slopes by increasing cambial age. Two multi-locus functional QTL analysis approaches were proposed and their performances were compared on trait datasets comprising 2 to 9 time points, 91 to 455 individual tree measurements and genotype datasets of amplified length polymorphisms (AFLP), and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. The first method was a multilevel LASSO analysis whereby trend parameter estimation and QTL mapping were conducted consecutively; the second method was our Bayesian linear mixed model whereby trends and underlying genetic effects were estimated simultaneously. We also compared several different hypothesis testing methods under either the LASSO or the Bayesian framework to perform QTL inference. In total, five and four significant QTL were observed for the intercepts and slopes, respectively, across wood traits such as earlywood percentage, wood density, radial fiberwidth, and spiral grain angle. Four of these QTL were represented by candidate gene SNPs, thus providing promising targets for future research in QTL mapping and molecular function. Bayesian and LASSO methods both detected similar sets of QTL given datasets that comprised large numbers of individuals. Copyright © 2014 Li et al.

Cross-scale integration of knowledge for predicting species ranges: a metamodeling framework

PubMed Central

Talluto, Matthew V.; Boulangeat, Isabelle; Ameztegui, Aitor; Aubin, Isabelle; Berteaux, Dominique; Butler, Alyssa; Doyon, Frédérik; Drever, C. Ronnie; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Franceschini, Tony; Liénard, Jean; McKenney, Dan; Solarik, Kevin A.; Strigul, Nikolay; Thuiller, Wilfried; Gravel, Dominique

2016-01-01

Aim Current interest in forecasting changes to species ranges have resulted in a multitude of approaches to species distribution models (SDMs). However, most approaches include only a small subset of the available information, and many ignore smaller-scale processes such as growth, fecundity, and dispersal. Furthermore, different approaches often produce divergent predictions with no simple method to reconcile them. Here, we present a flexible framework for integrating models at multiple scales using hierarchical Bayesian methods. Location Eastern North America (as an example). Methods Our framework builds a metamodel that is constrained by the results of multiple sub-models and provides probabilistic estimates of species presence. We applied our approach to a simulated dataset to demonstrate the integration of a correlative SDM with a theoretical model. In a second example, we built an integrated model combining the results of a physiological model with presence-absence data for sugar maple (Acer saccharum), an abundant tree native to eastern North America. Results For both examples, the integrated models successfully included information from all data sources and substantially improved the characterization of uncertainty. For the second example, the integrated model outperformed the source models with respect to uncertainty when modelling the present range of the species. When projecting into the future, the model provided a consensus view of two models that differed substantially in their predictions. Uncertainty was reduced where the models agreed and was greater where they diverged, providing a more realistic view of the state of knowledge than either source model. Main conclusions We conclude by discussing the potential applications of our method and its accessibility to applied ecologists. In ideal cases, our framework can be easily implemented using off-the-shelf software. The framework has wide potential for use in species distribution modelling and can drive better integration of multi-source and multi-scale data into ecological decision-making. PMID:27499698

Cross-scale integration of knowledge for predicting species ranges: a metamodeling framework.

PubMed

Talluto, Matthew V; Boulangeat, Isabelle; Ameztegui, Aitor; Aubin, Isabelle; Berteaux, Dominique; Butler, Alyssa; Doyon, Frédérik; Drever, C Ronnie; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Franceschini, Tony; Liénard, Jean; McKenney, Dan; Solarik, Kevin A; Strigul, Nikolay; Thuiller, Wilfried; Gravel, Dominique

2016-02-01

Current interest in forecasting changes to species ranges have resulted in a multitude of approaches to species distribution models (SDMs). However, most approaches include only a small subset of the available information, and many ignore smaller-scale processes such as growth, fecundity, and dispersal. Furthermore, different approaches often produce divergent predictions with no simple method to reconcile them. Here, we present a flexible framework for integrating models at multiple scales using hierarchical Bayesian methods. Eastern North America (as an example). Our framework builds a metamodel that is constrained by the results of multiple sub-models and provides probabilistic estimates of species presence. We applied our approach to a simulated dataset to demonstrate the integration of a correlative SDM with a theoretical model. In a second example, we built an integrated model combining the results of a physiological model with presence-absence data for sugar maple ( Acer saccharum ), an abundant tree native to eastern North America. For both examples, the integrated models successfully included information from all data sources and substantially improved the characterization of uncertainty. For the second example, the integrated model outperformed the source models with respect to uncertainty when modelling the present range of the species. When projecting into the future, the model provided a consensus view of two models that differed substantially in their predictions. Uncertainty was reduced where the models agreed and was greater where they diverged, providing a more realistic view of the state of knowledge than either source model. We conclude by discussing the potential applications of our method and its accessibility to applied ecologists. In ideal cases, our framework can be easily implemented using off-the-shelf software. The framework has wide potential for use in species distribution modelling and can drive better integration of multi-source and multi-scale data into ecological decision-making.

Bayesian structural equation modeling in sport and exercise psychology.

PubMed

Stenling, Andreas; Ivarsson, Andreas; Johnson, Urban; Lindwall, Magnus

2015-08-01

Bayesian statistics is on the rise in mainstream psychology, but applications in sport and exercise psychology research are scarce. In this article, the foundations of Bayesian analysis are introduced, and we will illustrate how to apply Bayesian structural equation modeling in a sport and exercise psychology setting. More specifically, we contrasted a confirmatory factor analysis on the Sport Motivation Scale II estimated with the most commonly used estimator, maximum likelihood, and a Bayesian approach with weakly informative priors for cross-loadings and correlated residuals. The results indicated that the model with Bayesian estimation and weakly informative priors provided a good fit to the data, whereas the model estimated with a maximum likelihood estimator did not produce a well-fitting model. The reasons for this discrepancy between maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation are discussed as well as potential advantages and caveats with the Bayesian approach.

On combination of strict Bayesian principles with model reduction technique or how stochastic model calibration can become feasible for large-scale applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oladyshkin, S.; Schroeder, P.; Class, H.; Nowak, W.

2013-12-01

Predicting underground carbon dioxide (CO2) storage represents a challenging problem in a complex dynamic system. Due to lacking information about reservoir parameters, quantification of uncertainties may become the dominant question in risk assessment. Calibration on past observed data from pilot-scale test injection can improve the predictive power of the involved geological, flow, and transport models. The current work performs history matching to pressure time series from a pilot storage site operated in Europe, maintained during an injection period. Simulation of compressible two-phase flow and transport (CO2/brine) in the considered site is computationally very demanding, requiring about 12 days of CPU time for an individual model run. For that reason, brute-force approaches for calibration are not feasible. In the current work, we explore an advanced framework for history matching based on the arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion (aPC) and strict Bayesian principles. The aPC [1] offers a drastic but accurate stochastic model reduction. Unlike many previous chaos expansions, it can handle arbitrary probability distribution shapes of uncertain parameters, and can therefore handle directly the statistical information appearing during the matching procedure. We capture the dependence of model output on these multipliers with the expansion-based reduced model. In our study we keep the spatial heterogeneity suggested by geophysical methods, but consider uncertainty in the magnitude of permeability trough zone-wise permeability multipliers. Next combined the aPC with Bootstrap filtering (a brute-force but fully accurate Bayesian updating mechanism) in order to perform the matching. In comparison to (Ensemble) Kalman Filters, our method accounts for higher-order statistical moments and for the non-linearity of both the forward model and the inversion, and thus allows a rigorous quantification of calibrated model uncertainty. The usually high computational costs of accurate filtering become very feasible for our suggested aPC-based calibration framework. However, the power of aPC-based Bayesian updating strongly depends on the accuracy of prior information. In the current study, the prior assumptions on the model parameters were not satisfactory and strongly underestimate the reservoir pressure. Thus, the aPC-based response surface used in Bootstrap filtering is fitted to a distant and poorly chosen region within the parameter space. Thanks to the iterative procedure suggested in [2] we overcome this drawback with small computational costs. The iteration successively improves the accuracy of the expansion around the current estimation of the posterior distribution. The final result is a calibrated model of the site that can be used for further studies, with an excellent match to the data. References [1] Oladyshkin S. and Nowak W. Data-driven uncertainty quantification using the arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 106:179-190, 2012. [2] Oladyshkin S., Class H., Nowak W. Bayesian updating via Bootstrap filtering combined with data-driven polynomial chaos expansions: methodology and application to history matching for carbon dioxide storage in geological formations. Computational Geosciences, 17 (4), 671-687, 2013.

Bayesian model reduction and empirical Bayes for group (DCM) studies

PubMed Central

Friston, Karl J.; Litvak, Vladimir; Oswal, Ashwini; Razi, Adeel; Stephan, Klaas E.; van Wijk, Bernadette C.M.; Ziegler, Gabriel; Zeidman, Peter

2016-01-01

This technical note describes some Bayesian procedures for the analysis of group studies that use nonlinear models at the first (within-subject) level – e.g., dynamic causal models – and linear models at subsequent (between-subject) levels. Its focus is on using Bayesian model reduction to finesse the inversion of multiple models of a single dataset or a single (hierarchical or empirical Bayes) model of multiple datasets. These applications of Bayesian model reduction allow one to consider parametric random effects and make inferences about group effects very efficiently (in a few seconds). We provide the relatively straightforward theoretical background to these procedures and illustrate their application using a worked example. This example uses a simulated mismatch negativity study of schizophrenia. We illustrate the robustness of Bayesian model reduction to violations of the (commonly used) Laplace assumption in dynamic causal modelling and show how its recursive application can facilitate both classical and Bayesian inference about group differences. Finally, we consider the application of these empirical Bayesian procedures to classification and prediction. PMID:26569570

An introduction to using Bayesian linear regression with clinical data.

PubMed

Baldwin, Scott A; Larson, Michael J

2017-11-01

Statistical training psychology focuses on frequentist methods. Bayesian methods are an alternative to standard frequentist methods. This article provides researchers with an introduction to fundamental ideas in Bayesian modeling. We use data from an electroencephalogram (EEG) and anxiety study to illustrate Bayesian models. Specifically, the models examine the relationship between error-related negativity (ERN), a particular event-related potential, and trait anxiety. Methodological topics covered include: how to set up a regression model in a Bayesian framework, specifying priors, examining convergence of the model, visualizing and interpreting posterior distributions, interval estimates, expected and predicted values, and model comparison tools. We also discuss situations where Bayesian methods can outperform frequentist methods as well has how to specify more complicated regression models. Finally, we conclude with recommendations about reporting guidelines for those using Bayesian methods in their own research. We provide data and R code for replicating our analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal Modeling of Ozone Levels in Quebec (Canada): A Comparison of Kriging, Land-Use Regression (LUR), and Combined Bayesian Maximum Entropy–LUR Approaches

PubMed Central

Adam-Poupart, Ariane; Brand, Allan; Fournier, Michel; Jerrett, Michael

2014-01-01

Background: Ambient air ozone (O3) is a pulmonary irritant that has been associated with respiratory health effects including increased lung inflammation and permeability, airway hyperreactivity, respiratory symptoms, and decreased lung function. Estimation of O3 exposure is a complex task because the pollutant exhibits complex spatiotemporal patterns. To refine the quality of exposure estimation, various spatiotemporal methods have been developed worldwide. Objectives: We sought to compare the accuracy of three spatiotemporal models to predict summer ground-level O3 in Quebec, Canada. Methods: We developed a land-use mixed-effects regression (LUR) model based on readily available data (air quality and meteorological monitoring data, road networks information, latitude), a Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) model incorporating both O3 monitoring station data and the land-use mixed model outputs (BME-LUR), and a kriging method model based only on available O3 monitoring station data (BME kriging). We performed leave-one-station-out cross-validation and visually assessed the predictive capability of each model by examining the mean temporal and spatial distributions of the average estimated errors. Results: The BME-LUR was the best predictive model (R2 = 0.653) with the lowest root mean-square error (RMSE ;7.06 ppb), followed by the LUR model (R2 = 0.466, RMSE = 8.747) and the BME kriging model (R2 = 0.414, RMSE = 9.164). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that errors of estimation in the interpolation of O3 concentrations with BME can be greatly reduced by incorporating outputs from a LUR model developed with readily available data. Citation: Adam-Poupart A, Brand A, Fournier M, Jerrett M, Smargiassi A. 2014. Spatiotemporal modeling of ozone levels in Quebec (Canada): a comparison of kriging, land-use regression (LUR), and combined Bayesian maximum entropy–LUR approaches. Environ Health Perspect 122:970–976; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306566 PMID:24879650

SU-G-JeP2-02: A Unifying Multi-Atlas Approach to Electron Density Mapping Using Multi-Parametric MRI for Radiation Treatment Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ren, S; Tianjin University, Tianjin; Hara, W

Purpose: MRI has a number of advantages over CT as a primary modality for radiation treatment planning (RTP). However, one key bottleneck problem still remains, which is the lack of electron density information in MRI. In the work, a reliable method to map electron density is developed by leveraging the differential contrast of multi-parametric MRI. Methods: We propose a probabilistic Bayesian approach for electron density mapping based on T1 and T2-weighted MRI, using multiple patients as atlases. For each voxel, we compute two conditional probabilities: (1) electron density given its image intensity on T1 and T2-weighted MR images, and (2)more » electron density given its geometric location in a reference anatomy. The two sources of information (image intensity and spatial location) are combined into a unifying posterior probability density function using the Bayesian formalism. The mean value of the posterior probability density function provides the estimated electron density. Results: We evaluated the method on 10 head and neck patients and performed leave-one-out cross validation (9 patients as atlases and remaining 1 as test). The proposed method significantly reduced the errors in electron density estimation, with a mean absolute HU error of 138, compared with 193 for the T1-weighted intensity approach and 261 without density correction. For bone detection (HU>200), the proposed method had an accuracy of 84% and a sensitivity of 73% at specificity of 90% (AUC = 87%). In comparison, the AUC for bone detection is 73% and 50% using the intensity approach and without density correction, respectively. Conclusion: The proposed unifying method provides accurate electron density estimation and bone detection based on multi-parametric MRI of the head with highly heterogeneous anatomy. This could allow for accurate dose calculation and reference image generation for patient setup in MRI-based radiation treatment planning.« less

Fractal dimension based damage identification incorporating multi-task sparse Bayesian learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yong; Li, Hui; Wu, Stephen; Yang, Yongchao

2018-07-01

Sensitivity to damage and robustness to noise are critical requirements for the effectiveness of structural damage detection. In this study, a two-stage damage identification method based on the fractal dimension analysis and multi-task Bayesian learning is presented. The Higuchi’s fractal dimension (HFD) based damage index is first proposed, directly examining the time-frequency characteristic of local free vibration data of structures based on the irregularity sensitivity and noise robustness analysis of HFD. Katz’s fractal dimension is then presented to analyze the abrupt irregularity change of the spatial curve of the displacement mode shape along the structure. At the second stage, the multi-task sparse Bayesian learning technique is employed to infer the final damage localization vector, which borrow the dependent strength of the two fractal dimension based damage indication information and also incorporate the prior knowledge that structural damage occurs at a limited number of locations in a structure in the absence of its collapse. To validate the capability of the proposed method, a steel beam and a bridge, named Yonghe Bridge, are analyzed as illustrative examples. The damage identification results demonstrate that the proposed method is capable of localizing single and multiple damages regardless of its severity, and show superior robustness under heavy noise as well.

Joint modality fusion and temporal context exploitation for semantic video analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadopoulos, Georgios Th; Mezaris, Vasileios; Kompatsiaris, Ioannis; Strintzis, Michael G.

2011-12-01

In this paper, a multi-modal context-aware approach to semantic video analysis is presented. Overall, the examined video sequence is initially segmented into shots and for every resulting shot appropriate color, motion and audio features are extracted. Then, Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are employed for performing an initial association of each shot with the semantic classes that are of interest separately for each modality. Subsequently, a graphical modeling-based approach is proposed for jointly performing modality fusion and temporal context exploitation. Novelties of this work include the combined use of contextual information and multi-modal fusion, and the development of a new representation for providing motion distribution information to HMMs. Specifically, an integrated Bayesian Network is introduced for simultaneously performing information fusion of the individual modality analysis results and exploitation of temporal context, contrary to the usual practice of performing each task separately. Contextual information is in the form of temporal relations among the supported classes. Additionally, a new computationally efficient method for providing motion energy distribution-related information to HMMs, which supports the incorporation of motion characteristics from previous frames to the currently examined one, is presented. The final outcome of this overall video analysis framework is the association of a semantic class with every shot. Experimental results as well as comparative evaluation from the application of the proposed approach to four datasets belonging to the domains of tennis, news and volleyball broadcast video are presented.

Bayesian modeling and inference for diagnostic accuracy and probability of disease based on multiple diagnostic biomarkers with and without a perfect reference standard.

PubMed

Jafarzadeh, S Reza; Johnson, Wesley O; Gardner, Ian A

2016-03-15

The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) is used as a performance metric for quantitative tests. Although multiple biomarkers may be available for diagnostic or screening purposes, diagnostic accuracy is often assessed individually rather than in combination. In this paper, we consider the interesting problem of combining multiple biomarkers for use in a single diagnostic criterion with the goal of improving the diagnostic accuracy above that of an individual biomarker. The diagnostic criterion created from multiple biomarkers is based on the predictive probability of disease, conditional on given multiple biomarker outcomes. If the computed predictive probability exceeds a specified cutoff, the corresponding subject is allocated as 'diseased'. This defines a standard diagnostic criterion that has its own ROC curve, namely, the combined ROC (cROC). The AUC metric for cROC, namely, the combined AUC (cAUC), is used to compare the predictive criterion based on multiple biomarkers to one based on fewer biomarkers. A multivariate random-effects model is proposed for modeling multiple normally distributed dependent scores. Bayesian methods for estimating ROC curves and corresponding (marginal) AUCs are developed when a perfect reference standard is not available. In addition, cAUCs are computed to compare the accuracy of different combinations of biomarkers for diagnosis. The methods are evaluated using simulations and are applied to data for Johne's disease (paratuberculosis) in cattle. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluating Bayesian spatial methods for modelling species distributions with clumped and restricted occurrence data.

PubMed

Redding, David W; Lucas, Tim C D; Blackburn, Tim M; Jones, Kate E

2017-01-01

Statistical approaches for inferring the spatial distribution of taxa (Species Distribution Models, SDMs) commonly rely on available occurrence data, which is often clumped and geographically restricted. Although available SDM methods address some of these factors, they could be more directly and accurately modelled using a spatially-explicit approach. Software to fit models with spatial autocorrelation parameters in SDMs are now widely available, but whether such approaches for inferring SDMs aid predictions compared to other methodologies is unknown. Here, within a simulated environment using 1000 generated species' ranges, we compared the performance of two commonly used non-spatial SDM methods (Maximum Entropy Modelling, MAXENT and boosted regression trees, BRT), to a spatial Bayesian SDM method (fitted using R-INLA), when the underlying data exhibit varying combinations of clumping and geographic restriction. Finally, we tested how any recommended methodological settings designed to account for spatially non-random patterns in the data impact inference. Spatial Bayesian SDM method was the most consistently accurate method, being in the top 2 most accurate methods in 7 out of 8 data sampling scenarios. Within high-coverage sample datasets, all methods performed fairly similarly. When sampling points were randomly spread, BRT had a 1-3% greater accuracy over the other methods and when samples were clumped, the spatial Bayesian SDM method had a 4%-8% better AUC score. Alternatively, when sampling points were restricted to a small section of the true range all methods were on average 10-12% less accurate, with greater variation among the methods. Model inference under the recommended settings to account for autocorrelation was not impacted by clumping or restriction of data, except for the complexity of the spatial regression term in the spatial Bayesian model. Methods, such as those made available by R-INLA, can be successfully used to account for spatial autocorrelation in an SDM context and, by taking account of random effects, produce outputs that can better elucidate the role of covariates in predicting species occurrence. Given that it is often unclear what the drivers are behind data clumping in an empirical occurrence dataset, or indeed how geographically restricted these data are, spatially-explicit Bayesian SDMs may be the better choice when modelling the spatial distribution of target species.

Stochastic static fault slip inversion from geodetic data with non-negativity and bounds constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nocquet, J.-M.

2018-04-01

Despite surface displacements observed by geodesy are linear combinations of slip at faults in an elastic medium, determining the spatial distribution of fault slip remains a ill-posed inverse problem. A widely used approach to circumvent the illness of the inversion is to add regularization constraints in terms of smoothing and/or damping so that the linear system becomes invertible. However, the choice of regularization parameters is often arbitrary, and sometimes leads to significantly different results. Furthermore, the resolution analysis is usually empirical and cannot be made independently of the regularization. The stochastic approach of inverse problems (Tarantola & Valette 1982; Tarantola 2005) provides a rigorous framework where the a priori information about the searched parameters is combined with the observations in order to derive posterior probabilities of the unkown parameters. Here, I investigate an approach where the prior probability density function (pdf) is a multivariate Gaussian function, with single truncation to impose positivity of slip or double truncation to impose positivity and upper bounds on slip for interseismic modeling. I show that the joint posterior pdf is similar to the linear untruncated Gaussian case and can be expressed as a Truncated Multi-Variate Normal (TMVN) distribution. The TMVN form can then be used to obtain semi-analytical formulas for the single, two-dimensional or n-dimensional marginal pdf. The semi-analytical formula involves the product of a Gaussian by an integral term that can be evaluated using recent developments in TMVN probabilities calculations (e.g. Genz & Bretz 2009). Posterior mean and covariance can also be efficiently derived. I show that the Maximum Posterior (MAP) can be obtained using a Non-Negative Least-Squares algorithm (Lawson & Hanson 1974) for the single truncated case or using the Bounded-Variable Least-Squares algorithm (Stark & Parker 1995) for the double truncated case. I show that the case of independent uniform priors can be approximated using TMVN. The numerical equivalence to Bayesian inversions using Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) sampling is shown for a synthetic example and a real case for interseismic modeling in Central Peru. The TMVN method overcomes several limitations of the Bayesian approach using MCMC sampling. First, the need of computer power is largely reduced. Second, unlike Bayesian MCMC based approach, marginal pdf, mean, variance or covariance are obtained independently one from each other. Third, the probability and cumulative density functions can be obtained with any density of points. Finally, determining the Maximum Posterior (MAP) is extremely fast.

Occupancy in community-level studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKenzie, Darryl I.; Nichols, James; Royle, Andy; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Bailey, Larissa L.; Hines, James

2018-01-01

Another type of multi-species studies, are those focused on community-level metrics such as species richness. In this chapter we detail how some of the single-species occupancy models described in earlier chapters have been applied, or extended, for use in such studies, while accounting for imperfect detection. We highlight how Bayesian methods using MCMC are particularly useful in such settings to easily calculate relevant community-level summaries based on presence/absence data. These modeling approaches can be used to assess richness at a single point in time, or to investigate changes in the species pool over time.

Neural network analysis of Charpy transition temperature of irradiated low-activation martensitic steels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cottrell, G. A.; Kemp, R.; Bhadeshia, H. K. D. H.; Odette, G. R.; Yamamoto, T.

2007-08-01

We have constructed a Bayesian neural network model that predicts the change, due to neutron irradiation, of the Charpy ductile-brittle transition temperature (ΔDBTT) of low-activation martensitic steels given a set of multi-dimensional published data with doses <100 displacements per atom (dpa). Results show the high significance of irradiation temperature and (dpa) 1/2 in determining ΔDBTT. Sparse data regions were identified by the size of the modelling uncertainties, indicating areas where further experimental data are needed. The method has promise for selecting and ranking experiments on future irradiation materials test facilities.

Nonstationarities in Catchment Response According to Basin and Rainfall Characteristics: Application to Korean Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Hyun-Han; Kim, Jin-Guk; Jung, Il-Won

2015-04-01

It must be acknowledged that application of rainfall-runoff models to simulate rainfall-runoff processes are successful in gauged watershed. However, there still remain some issues that will need to be further discussed. In particular, the quantitive representation of nonstationarity issue in basin response (e.g. concentration time, storage coefficient and roughness) along with ungauged watershed needs to be studied. In this regard, this study aims to investigate nonstationarity in basin response so as to potentially provide useful information in simulating runoff processes in ungauged watershed. For this purpose, HEC-1 rainfall-runoff model was mainly utilized. In addition, this study combined HEC-1 model with Bayesian statistical model to estimate uncertainty of the parameters which is called Bayesian HEC-1 (BHEC-1). The proposed rainfall-runofall model is applied to various catchments along with various rainfall patterns to understand nonstationarities in catchment response. Further discussion about the nonstationarity in catchment response and possible regionalization of the parameters for ungauged watershed are discussed. KEYWORDS: Nonstationary, Catchment response, Uncertainty, Bayesian Acknowledgement This research was supported by a Grant (13SCIPA01) from Smart Civil Infrastructure Research Program funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) of Korea government and the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement (KAIA).

Bayesian Monte Carlo and Maximum Likelihood Approach for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Model uncertainty estimation and risk assessment is essential to environmental management and informed decision making on pollution mitigation strategies. In this study, we apply a probabilistic methodology, which combines Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and Maximum Likelihood estimation (BMCML) to calibrate a lake oxygen recovery model. We first derive an analytical solution of the differential equation governing lake-averaged oxygen dynamics as a function of time-variable wind speed. Statistical inferences on model parameters and predictive uncertainty are then drawn by Bayesian conditioning of the analytical solution on observed daily wind speed and oxygen concentration data obtained from an earlier study during two recovery periods on a eutrophic lake in upper state New York. The model is calibrated using oxygen recovery data for one year and statistical inferences were validated using recovery data for another year. Compared with essentially two-step, regression and optimization approach, the BMCML results are more comprehensive and performed relatively better in predicting the observed temporal dissolved oxygen levels (DO) in the lake. BMCML also produced comparable calibration and validation results with those obtained using popular Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique (MCMC) and is computationally simpler and easier to implement than the MCMC. Next, using the calibrated model, we derive an optimal relationship between liquid film-transfer coefficien

Unsupervised Unmixing of Hyperspectral Images Accounting for Endmember Variability.

PubMed

Halimi, Abderrahim; Dobigeon, Nicolas; Tourneret, Jean-Yves

2015-12-01

This paper presents an unsupervised Bayesian algorithm for hyperspectral image unmixing, accounting for endmember variability. The pixels are modeled by a linear combination of endmembers weighted by their corresponding abundances. However, the endmembers are assumed random to consider their variability in the image. An additive noise is also considered in the proposed model, generalizing the normal compositional model. The proposed algorithm exploits the whole image to benefit from both spectral and spatial information. It estimates both the mean and the covariance matrix of each endmember in the image. This allows the behavior of each material to be analyzed and its variability to be quantified in the scene. A spatial segmentation is also obtained based on the estimated abundances. In order to estimate the parameters associated with the proposed Bayesian model, we propose to use a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm. The performance of the resulting unmixing strategy is evaluated through simulations conducted on both synthetic and real data.

None of the above: A Bayesian account of the detection of novel categories.

PubMed

Navarro, Daniel J; Kemp, Charles

2017-10-01

Every time we encounter a new object, action, or event, there is some chance that we will need to assign it to a novel category. We describe and evaluate a class of probabilistic models that detect when an object belongs to a category that has not previously been encountered. The models incorporate a prior distribution that is influenced by the distribution of previous objects among categories, and we present 2 experiments that demonstrate that people are also sensitive to this distributional information. Two additional experiments confirm that distributional information is combined with similarity when both sources of information are available. We compare our approach to previous models of unsupervised categorization and to several heuristic-based models, and find that a hierarchical Bayesian approach provides the best account of our data. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Integrated Data Analysis for Fusion: A Bayesian Tutorial for Fusion Diagnosticians

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinklage, Andreas; Dreier, Heiko; Fischer, Rainer; Gori, Silvio; Preuss, Roland; Toussaint, Udo von

2008-03-01

Integrated Data Analysis (IDA) offers a unified way of combining information relevant to fusion experiments. Thereby, IDA meets with typical issues arising in fusion data analysis. In IDA, all information is consistently formulated as probability density functions quantifying uncertainties in the analysis within the Bayesian probability theory. For a single diagnostic, IDA allows the identification of faulty measurements and improvements in the setup. For a set of diagnostics, IDA gives joint error distributions allowing the comparison and integration of different diagnostics results. Validation of physics models can be performed by model comparison techniques. Typical data analysis applications benefit from IDA capabilities of nonlinear error propagation, the inclusion of systematic effects and the comparison of different physics models. Applications range from outlier detection, background discrimination, model assessment and design of diagnostics. In order to cope with next step fusion device requirements, appropriate techniques are explored for fast analysis applications.

Isotopic reconstruction of the weaning process in the archaeological population of Canímar Abajo, Cuba: A Bayesian probability mixing model approach

PubMed Central

Roksandic, Mirjana; Nikitović, Dejana; Rodríguez Suárez, Roberto; Smith, David; Kanik, Nadine; García Jordá, Dailys; Buhay, William M.

2017-01-01

The general lack of well-preserved juvenile skeletal remains from Caribbean archaeological sites has, in the past, prevented evaluations of juvenile dietary changes. Canímar Abajo (Cuba), with a large number of well-preserved juvenile and adult skeletal remains, provided a unique opportunity to fully assess juvenile paleodiets from an ancient Caribbean population. Ages for the start and the end of weaning and possible food sources used for weaning were inferred by combining the results of two Bayesian probability models that help to reduce some of the uncertainties inherent to bone collagen isotope based paleodiet reconstructions. Bone collagen (31 juveniles, 18 adult females) was used for carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses. The isotope results were assessed using two Bayesian probability models: Weaning Ages Reconstruction with Nitrogen isotopes and Stable Isotope Analyses in R. Breast milk seems to have been the most important protein source until two years of age with some supplementary food such as tropical fruits and root cultigens likely introduced earlier. After two, juvenile diets were likely continuously supplemented by starch rich foods such as root cultigens and legumes. By the age of three, the model results suggest that the weaning process was completed. Additional indications suggest that animal marine/riverine protein and maize, while part of the Canímar Abajo female diets, were likely not used to supplement juvenile diets. The combined use of both models here provided a more complete assessment of the weaning process for an ancient Caribbean population, indicating not only the start and end ages of weaning but also the relative importance of different food sources for different age juveniles. PMID:28459816

Isotopic reconstruction of the weaning process in the archaeological population of Canímar Abajo, Cuba: A Bayesian probability mixing model approach.

PubMed

Chinique de Armas, Yadira; Roksandic, Mirjana; Nikitović, Dejana; Rodríguez Suárez, Roberto; Smith, David; Kanik, Nadine; García Jordá, Dailys; Buhay, William M

2017-01-01

The general lack of well-preserved juvenile skeletal remains from Caribbean archaeological sites has, in the past, prevented evaluations of juvenile dietary changes. Canímar Abajo (Cuba), with a large number of well-preserved juvenile and adult skeletal remains, provided a unique opportunity to fully assess juvenile paleodiets from an ancient Caribbean population. Ages for the start and the end of weaning and possible food sources used for weaning were inferred by combining the results of two Bayesian probability models that help to reduce some of the uncertainties inherent to bone collagen isotope based paleodiet reconstructions. Bone collagen (31 juveniles, 18 adult females) was used for carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses. The isotope results were assessed using two Bayesian probability models: Weaning Ages Reconstruction with Nitrogen isotopes and Stable Isotope Analyses in R. Breast milk seems to have been the most important protein source until two years of age with some supplementary food such as tropical fruits and root cultigens likely introduced earlier. After two, juvenile diets were likely continuously supplemented by starch rich foods such as root cultigens and legumes. By the age of three, the model results suggest that the weaning process was completed. Additional indications suggest that animal marine/riverine protein and maize, while part of the Canímar Abajo female diets, were likely not used to supplement juvenile diets. The combined use of both models here provided a more complete assessment of the weaning process for an ancient Caribbean population, indicating not only the start and end ages of weaning but also the relative importance of different food sources for different age juveniles.

Statistical comparison of a hybrid approach with approximate and exact inference models for Fusion 2+

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K. David; Wiesenfeld, Eric; Gelfand, Andrew

2007-04-01

One of the greatest challenges in modern combat is maintaining a high level of timely Situational Awareness (SA). In many situations, computational complexity and accuracy considerations make the development and deployment of real-time, high-level inference tools very difficult. An innovative hybrid framework that combines Bayesian inference, in the form of Bayesian Networks, and Possibility Theory, in the form of Fuzzy Logic systems, has recently been introduced to provide a rigorous framework for high-level inference. In previous research, the theoretical basis and benefits of the hybrid approach have been developed. However, lacking is a concrete experimental comparison of the hybrid framework with traditional fusion methods, to demonstrate and quantify this benefit. The goal of this research, therefore, is to provide a statistical analysis on the comparison of the accuracy and performance of hybrid network theory, with pure Bayesian and Fuzzy systems and an inexact Bayesian system approximated using Particle Filtering. To accomplish this task, domain specific models will be developed under these different theoretical approaches and then evaluated, via Monte Carlo Simulation, in comparison to situational ground truth to measure accuracy and fidelity. Following this, a rigorous statistical analysis of the performance results will be performed, to quantify the benefit of hybrid inference to other fusion tools.

Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

2015-01-01

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

Improving phylogenetic analyses by incorporating additional information from genetic sequence databases.

PubMed

Liang, Li-Jung; Weiss, Robert E; Redelings, Benjamin; Suchard, Marc A

2009-10-01

Statistical analyses of phylogenetic data culminate in uncertain estimates of underlying model parameters. Lack of additional data hinders the ability to reduce this uncertainty, as the original phylogenetic dataset is often complete, containing the entire gene or genome information available for the given set of taxa. Informative priors in a Bayesian analysis can reduce posterior uncertainty; however, publicly available phylogenetic software specifies vague priors for model parameters by default. We build objective and informative priors using hierarchical random effect models that combine additional datasets whose parameters are not of direct interest but are similar to the analysis of interest. We propose principled statistical methods that permit more precise parameter estimates in phylogenetic analyses by creating informative priors for parameters of interest. Using additional sequence datasets from our lab or public databases, we construct a fully Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical model to combine datasets. A dynamic iteratively reweighted Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm conveniently recycles posterior samples from the individual analyses. We demonstrate the value of our approach by examining the insertion-deletion (indel) process in the enolase gene across the Tree of Life using the phylogenetic software BALI-PHY; we incorporate prior information about indels from 82 curated alignments downloaded from the BAliBASE database.

Spatial Bayesian belief networks as a planning decision tool for mapping ecosystem services trade-offs on forested landscapes.

PubMed

Gonzalez-Redin, Julen; Luque, Sandra; Poggio, Laura; Smith, Ron; Gimona, Alessandro

2016-01-01

An integrated methodology, based on linking Bayesian belief networks (BBN) with GIS, is proposed for combining available evidence to help forest managers evaluate implications and trade-offs between forest production and conservation measures to preserve biodiversity in forested habitats. A Bayesian belief network is a probabilistic graphical model that represents variables and their dependencies through specifying probabilistic relationships. In spatially explicit decision problems where it is difficult to choose appropriate combinations of interventions, the proposed integration of a BBN with GIS helped to facilitate shared understanding of the human-landscape relationships, while fostering collective management that can be incorporated into landscape planning processes. Trades-offs become more and more relevant in these landscape contexts where the participation of many and varied stakeholder groups is indispensable. With these challenges in mind, our integrated approach incorporates GIS-based data with expert knowledge to consider two different land use interests - biodiversity value for conservation and timber production potential - with the focus on a complex mountain landscape in the French Alps. The spatial models produced provided different alternatives of suitable sites that can be used by policy makers in order to support conservation priorities while addressing management options. The approach provided provide a common reasoning language among different experts from different backgrounds while helped to identify spatially explicit conflictive areas. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Multi-mathematical modelings for compatibility optimization of Jiangzhi granules].

PubMed

Yang, Ming; Zhang, Li; Ge, Yingli; Lu, Yanliu; Ji, Guang

2011-12-01

To investigate into the method of "multi activity index evaluation and combination optimized of mult-component" for Chinese herbal formulas. According to the scheme of uniform experimental design, efficacy experiment, multi index evaluation, least absolute shrinkage, selection operator (LASSO) modeling, evolutionary optimization algorithm, validation experiment, we optimized the combination of Jiangzhi granules based on the activity indexes of blood serum ALT, ALT, AST, TG, TC, HDL, LDL and TG level of liver tissues, ratio of liver tissue to body. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) combining with criteria importance through intercriteria correlation (CRITIC) for multi activity index evaluation was more reasonable and objective, it reflected the information of activity index's order and objective sample data. LASSO algorithm modeling could accurately reflect the relationship between different combination of Jiangzhi granule and the activity comprehensive indexes. The optimized combination of Jiangzhi granule showed better values of the activity comprehensive indexed than the original formula after the validation experiment. AHP combining with CRITIC can be used for multi activity index evaluation and LASSO algorithm, it is suitable for combination optimized of Chinese herbal formulas.

Meta-Analysis of a Continuous Outcome Combining Individual Patient Data and Aggregate Data: A Method Based on Simulated Individual Patient Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yamaguchi, Yusuke; Sakamoto, Wataru; Goto, Masashi; Staessen, Jan A.; Wang, Jiguang; Gueyffier, Francois; Riley, Richard D.

2014-01-01

When some trials provide individual patient data (IPD) and the others provide only aggregate data (AD), meta-analysis methods for combining IPD and AD are required. We propose a method that reconstructs the missing IPD for AD trials by a Bayesian sampling procedure and then applies an IPD meta-analysis model to the mixture of simulated IPD and…

Bayesian multi-task learning for decoding multi-subject neuroimaging data.

PubMed

Marquand, Andre F; Brammer, Michael; Williams, Steven C R; Doyle, Orla M

2014-05-15

Decoding models based on pattern recognition (PR) are becoming increasingly important tools for neuroimaging data analysis. In contrast to alternative (mass-univariate) encoding approaches that use hierarchical models to capture inter-subject variability, inter-subject differences are not typically handled efficiently in PR. In this work, we propose to overcome this problem by recasting the decoding problem in a multi-task learning (MTL) framework. In MTL, a single PR model is used to learn different but related "tasks" simultaneously. The primary advantage of MTL is that it makes more efficient use of the data available and leads to more accurate models by making use of the relationships between tasks. In this work, we construct MTL models where each subject is modelled by a separate task. We use a flexible covariance structure to model the relationships between tasks and induce coupling between them using Gaussian process priors. We present an MTL method for classification problems and demonstrate a novel mapping method suitable for PR models. We apply these MTL approaches to classifying many different contrasts in a publicly available fMRI dataset and show that the proposed MTL methods produce higher decoding accuracy and more consistent discriminative activity patterns than currently used techniques. Our results demonstrate that MTL provides a promising method for multi-subject decoding studies by focusing on the commonalities between a group of subjects rather than the idiosyncratic properties of different subjects. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantum Mechanics, Pattern Recognition, and the Mammalian Brain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapline, George

2008-10-01

Although the usual way of representing Markov processes is time asymmetric, there is a way of describing Markov processes, due to Schrodinger, which is time symmetric. This observation provides a link between quantum mechanics and the layered Bayesian networks that are often used in automated pattern recognition systems. In particular, there is a striking formal similarity between quantum mechanics and a particular type of Bayesian network, the Helmholtz machine, which provides a plausible model for how the mammalian brain recognizes important environmental situations. One interesting aspect of this relationship is that the "wake-sleep" algorithm for training a Helmholtz machine is very similar to the problem of finding the potential for the multi-channel Schrodinger equation. As a practical application of this insight it may be possible to use inverse scattering techniques to study the relationship between human brain wave patterns, pattern recognition, and learning. We also comment on whether there is a relationship between quantum measurements and consciousness.

Statistical properties of four effect-size measures for mediation models.

PubMed

Miočević, Milica; O'Rourke, Holly P; MacKinnon, David P; Brown, Hendricks C

2018-02-01

This project examined the performance of classical and Bayesian estimators of four effect size measures for the indirect effect in a single-mediator model and a two-mediator model. Compared to the proportion and ratio mediation effect sizes, standardized mediation effect-size measures were relatively unbiased and efficient in the single-mediator model and the two-mediator model. Percentile and bias-corrected bootstrap interval estimates of ab/s Y , and ab(s X )/s Y in the single-mediator model outperformed interval estimates of the proportion and ratio effect sizes in terms of power, Type I error rate, coverage, imbalance, and interval width. For the two-mediator model, standardized effect-size measures were superior to the proportion and ratio effect-size measures. Furthermore, it was found that Bayesian point and interval summaries of posterior distributions of standardized effect-size measures reduced excessive relative bias for certain parameter combinations. The standardized effect-size measures are the best effect-size measures for quantifying mediated effects.

Bayesian maximum entropy integration of ozone observations and model predictions: an application for attainment demonstration in North Carolina.

PubMed

de Nazelle, Audrey; Arunachalam, Saravanan; Serre, Marc L

2010-08-01

States in the USA are required to demonstrate future compliance of criteria air pollutant standards by using both air quality monitors and model outputs. In the case of ozone, the demonstration tests aim at relying heavily on measured values, due to their perceived objectivity and enforceable quality. Weight given to numerical models is diminished by integrating them in the calculations only in a relative sense. For unmonitored locations, the EPA has suggested the use of a spatial interpolation technique to assign current values. We demonstrate that this approach may lead to erroneous assignments of nonattainment and may make it difficult for States to establish future compliance. We propose a method that combines different sources of information to map air pollution, using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) Framework. The approach gives precedence to measured values and integrates modeled data as a function of model performance. We demonstrate this approach in North Carolina, using the State's ozone monitoring network in combination with outputs from the Multiscale Air Quality Simulation Platform (MAQSIP) modeling system. We show that the BME data integration approach, compared to a spatial interpolation of measured data, improves the accuracy and the precision of ozone estimations across the state.

Combining PubMed knowledge and EHR data to develop a weighted bayesian network for pancreatic cancer prediction.

PubMed

Zhao, Di; Weng, Chunhua

2011-10-01

In this paper, we propose a novel method that combines PubMed knowledge and Electronic Health Records to develop a weighted Bayesian Network Inference (BNI) model for pancreatic cancer prediction. We selected 20 common risk factors associated with pancreatic cancer and used PubMed knowledge to weigh the risk factors. A keyword-based algorithm was developed to extract and classify PubMed abstracts into three categories that represented positive, negative, or neutral associations between each risk factor and pancreatic cancer. Then we designed a weighted BNI model by adding the normalized weights into a conventional BNI model. We used this model to extract the EHR values for patients with or without pancreatic cancer, which then enabled us to calculate the prior probabilities for the 20 risk factors in the BNI. The software iDiagnosis was designed to use this weighted BNI model for predicting pancreatic cancer. In an evaluation using a case-control dataset, the weighted BNI model significantly outperformed the conventional BNI and two other classifiers (k-Nearest Neighbor and Support Vector Machine). We conclude that the weighted BNI using PubMed knowledge and EHR data shows remarkable accuracy improvement over existing representative methods for pancreatic cancer prediction. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Combining PubMed Knowledge and EHR Data to Develop a Weighted Bayesian Network for Pancreatic Cancer Prediction

PubMed Central

Zhao, Di; Weng, Chunhua

2011-01-01

In this paper, we propose a novel method that combines PubMed knowledge and Electronic Health Records to develop a weighted Bayesian Network Inference (BNI) model for pancreatic cancer prediction. We selected 20 common risk factors associated with pancreatic cancer and used PubMed knowledge to weigh the risk factors. A keyword-based algorithm was developed to extract and classify PubMed abstracts into three categories that represented positive, negative, or neutral associations between each risk factor and pancreatic cancer. Then we designed a weighted BNI model by adding the normalized weights into a conventional BNI model. We used this model to extract the EHR values for patients with or without pancreatic cancer, which then enabled us to calculate the prior probabilities for the 20 risk factors in the BNI. The software iDiagnosis was designed to use this weighted BNI model for predicting pancreatic cancer. In an evaluation using a case-control dataset, the weighted BNI model significantly outperformed the conventional BNI and two other classifiers (k-Nearest Neighbor and Support Vector Machine). We conclude that the weighted BNI using PubMed knowledge and EHR data shows remarkable accuracy improvement over existing representative methods for pancreatic cancer prediction. PMID:21642013

The image recognition based on neural network and Bayesian decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chugege

2018-04-01

The artificial neural network began in 1940, which is an important part of artificial intelligence. At present, it has become a hot topic in the fields of neuroscience, computer science, brain science, mathematics, and psychology. Thomas Bayes firstly reported the Bayesian theory in 1763. After the development in the twentieth century, it has been widespread in all areas of statistics. In recent years, due to the solution of the problem of high-dimensional integral calculation, Bayesian Statistics has been improved theoretically, which solved many problems that cannot be solved by classical statistics and is also applied to the interdisciplinary fields. In this paper, the related concepts and principles of the artificial neural network are introduced. It also summarizes the basic content and principle of Bayesian Statistics, and combines the artificial neural network technology and Bayesian decision theory and implement them in all aspects of image recognition, such as enhanced face detection method based on neural network and Bayesian decision, as well as the image classification based on the Bayesian decision. It can be seen that the combination of artificial intelligence and statistical algorithms has always been the hot research topic.

Bayesian model reduction and empirical Bayes for group (DCM) studies.

PubMed

Friston, Karl J; Litvak, Vladimir; Oswal, Ashwini; Razi, Adeel; Stephan, Klaas E; van Wijk, Bernadette C M; Ziegler, Gabriel; Zeidman, Peter

2016-03-01

This technical note describes some Bayesian procedures for the analysis of group studies that use nonlinear models at the first (within-subject) level - e.g., dynamic causal models - and linear models at subsequent (between-subject) levels. Its focus is on using Bayesian model reduction to finesse the inversion of multiple models of a single dataset or a single (hierarchical or empirical Bayes) model of multiple datasets. These applications of Bayesian model reduction allow one to consider parametric random effects and make inferences about group effects very efficiently (in a few seconds). We provide the relatively straightforward theoretical background to these procedures and illustrate their application using a worked example. This example uses a simulated mismatch negativity study of schizophrenia. We illustrate the robustness of Bayesian model reduction to violations of the (commonly used) Laplace assumption in dynamic causal modelling and show how its recursive application can facilitate both classical and Bayesian inference about group differences. Finally, we consider the application of these empirical Bayesian procedures to classification and prediction. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The dynamics of fidelity over the time course of long-term memory.

PubMed

Persaud, Kimele; Hemmer, Pernille

2016-08-01

Bayesian models of cognition assume that prior knowledge about the world influences judgments. Recent approaches have suggested that the loss of fidelity from working to long-term (LT) memory is simply due to an increased rate of guessing (e.g. Brady, Konkle, Gill, Oliva, & Alvarez, 2013). That is, recall is the result of either remembering (with some noise) or guessing. This stands in contrast to Bayesian models of cognition while assume that prior knowledge about the world influences judgments, and that recall is a combination of expectations learned from the environment and noisy memory representations. Here, we evaluate the time course of fidelity in LT episodic memory, and the relative contribution of prior category knowledge and guessing, using a continuous recall paradigm. At an aggregate level, performance reflects a high rate of guessing. However, when aggregate data is partitioned by lag (i.e., the number of presentations from study to test), or is un-aggregated, performance appears to be more complex than just remembering with some noise and guessing. We implemented three models: the standard remember-guess model, a three-component remember-guess model, and a Bayesian mixture model and evaluated these models against the data. The results emphasize the importance of taking into account the influence of prior category knowledge on memory. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the uncertainty in discharge data using hydraulic knowledge and uncertain gaugings: a Bayesian method named BaRatin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Coz, Jérôme; Renard, Benjamin; Bonnifait, Laurent; Branger, Flora; Le Boursicaud, Raphaël; Horner, Ivan; Mansanarez, Valentin; Lang, Michel; Vigneau, Sylvain

2015-04-01

River discharge is a crucial variable for Hydrology: as the output variable of most hydrologic models, it is used for sensitivity analyses, model structure identification, parameter estimation, data assimilation, prediction, etc. A major difficulty stems from the fact that river discharge is not measured continuously. Instead, discharge time series used by hydrologists are usually based on simple stage-discharge relations (rating curves) calibrated using a set of direct stage-discharge measurements (gaugings). In this presentation, we present a Bayesian approach (cf. Le Coz et al., 2014) to build such hydrometric rating curves, to estimate the associated uncertainty and to propagate this uncertainty to discharge time series. The three main steps of this approach are described: (1) Hydraulic analysis: identification of the hydraulic controls that govern the stage-discharge relation, identification of the rating curve equation and specification of prior distributions for the rating curve parameters; (2) Rating curve estimation: Bayesian inference of the rating curve parameters, accounting for the individual uncertainties of available gaugings, which often differ according to the discharge measurement procedure and the flow conditions; (3) Uncertainty propagation: quantification of the uncertainty in discharge time series, accounting for both the rating curve uncertainties and the uncertainty of recorded stage values. The rating curve uncertainties combine the parametric uncertainties and the remnant uncertainties that reflect the limited accuracy of the mathematical model used to simulate the physical stage-discharge relation. In addition, we also discuss current research activities, including the treatment of non-univocal stage-discharge relationships (e.g. due to hydraulic hysteresis, vegetation growth, sudden change of the geometry of the section, etc.). An operational version of the BaRatin software and its graphical interface are made available free of charge on request to the authors. J. Le Coz, B. Renard, L. Bonnifait, F. Branger, R. Le Boursicaud (2014). Combining hydraulic knowledge and uncertain gaugings in the estimation of hydrometric rating curves: a Bayesian approach, Journal of Hydrology, 509, 573-587.

A study of finite mixture model: Bayesian approach on financial time series data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

2014-07-01

Recently, statistician have emphasized on the fitting finite mixture model by using Bayesian method. Finite mixture model is a mixture of distributions in modeling a statistical distribution meanwhile Bayesian method is a statistical method that use to fit the mixture model. Bayesian method is being used widely because it has asymptotic properties which provide remarkable result. In addition, Bayesian method also shows consistency characteristic which means the parameter estimates are close to the predictive distributions. In the present paper, the number of components for mixture model is studied by using Bayesian Information Criterion. Identify the number of component is important because it may lead to an invalid result. Later, the Bayesian method is utilized to fit the k-component mixture model in order to explore the relationship between rubber price and stock market price for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia. Lastly, the results showed that there is a negative effect among rubber price and stock market price for all selected countries.

Performance of two predictive uncertainty estimation approaches for conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model: Bayesian Joint Inference and Hydrologic Uncertainty Post-processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández-López, Mario R.; Romero-Cuéllar, Jonathan; Camilo Múnera-Estrada, Juan; Coccia, Gabriele; Francés, Félix

2017-04-01

It is noticeably important to emphasize the role of uncertainty particularly when the model forecasts are used to support decision-making and water management. This research compares two approaches for the evaluation of the predictive uncertainty in hydrological modeling. First approach is the Bayesian Joint Inference of hydrological and error models. Second approach is carried out through the Model Conditional Processor using the Truncated Normal Distribution in the transformed space. This comparison is focused on the predictive distribution reliability. The case study is applied to two basins included in the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX). These two basins, which have different hydrological complexity, are the French Broad River (North Carolina) and the Guadalupe River (Texas). The results indicate that generally, both approaches are able to provide similar predictive performances. However, the differences between them can arise in basins with complex hydrology (e.g. ephemeral basins). This is because obtained results with Bayesian Joint Inference are strongly dependent on the suitability of the hypothesized error model. Similarly, the results in the case of the Model Conditional Processor are mainly influenced by the selected model of tails or even by the selected full probability distribution model of the data in the real space, and by the definition of the Truncated Normal Distribution in the transformed space. In summary, the different hypotheses that the modeler choose on each of the two approaches are the main cause of the different results. This research also explores a proper combination of both methodologies which could be useful to achieve less biased hydrological parameter estimation. For this approach, firstly the predictive distribution is obtained through the Model Conditional Processor. Secondly, this predictive distribution is used to derive the corresponding additive error model which is employed for the hydrological parameter estimation with the Bayesian Joint Inference methodology.

Accelerated Bayesian model-selection and parameter-estimation in continuous gravitational-wave searches with pulsar-timing arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Stephen; Ellis, Justin; Gair, Jonathan

2014-11-01

We describe several new techniques which accelerate Bayesian searches for continuous gravitational-wave emission from supermassive black-hole binaries using pulsar-timing arrays. These techniques mitigate the problematic increase of search dimensionality with the size of the pulsar array which arises from having to include an extra parameter per pulsar as the array is expanded. This extra parameter corresponds to searching over the phase of the gravitational wave as it propagates past each pulsar so that we can coherently include the pulsar term in our search strategies. Our techniques make the analysis tractable with powerful evidence-evaluation packages like MultiNest. We find good agreement of our techniques with the parameter-estimation and Bayes factor evaluation performed with full signal templates and conclude that these techniques make excellent first-cut tools for detection and characterization of continuous gravitational-wave signals with pulsar-timing arrays. Crucially, at low to moderate signal-to-noise ratios the factor by which the analysis is sped up can be ≳100 , permitting rigorous programs of systematic injection and recovery of signals to establish robust detection criteria within a Bayesian formalism.

Simultaneous Optimization of Decisions Using a Linear Utility Function.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vos, Hans J.

1990-01-01

An approach is presented to simultaneously optimize decision rules for combinations of elementary decisions through a framework derived from Bayesian decision theory. The developed linear utility model for selection-mastery decisions was applied to a sample of 43 first year medical students to illustrate the procedure. (SLD)

Using a Bayesian Model to Combine LDA Features with Crowdsourced Responses

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-02-05

particularly relevant to Orchid it is an example of a scenario in disaster recovery which is one of Orchids application domains. Examples of soft...locations of events. 12 Acknowledgements We gratefully acknowledge funding from the UK Research Council EPSRC for project ORCHID , grant EP/I011587/1

Categorical Biases in Spatial Memory: The Role of Certainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holden, Mark P.; Newcombe, Nora S.; Shipley, Thomas F.

2015-01-01

Memories for spatial locations often show systematic errors toward the central value of the surrounding region. The Category Adjustment (CA) model suggests that this bias is due to a Bayesian combination of categorical and metric information, which offers an optimal solution under conditions of uncertainty (Huttenlocher, Hedges, & Duncan,…

Nuclear charge radii: density functional theory meets Bayesian neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utama, R.; Chen, Wei-Chia; Piekarewicz, J.

2016-11-01

The distribution of electric charge in atomic nuclei is fundamental to our understanding of the complex nuclear dynamics and a quintessential observable to validate nuclear structure models. The aim of this study is to explore a novel approach that combines sophisticated models of nuclear structure with Bayesian neural networks (BNN) to generate predictions for the charge radii of thousands of nuclei throughout the nuclear chart. A class of relativistic energy density functionals is used to provide robust predictions for nuclear charge radii. In turn, these predictions are refined through Bayesian learning for a neural network that is trained using residuals between theoretical predictions and the experimental data. Although predictions obtained with density functional theory provide a fairly good description of experiment, our results show significant improvement (better than 40%) after BNN refinement. Moreover, these improved results for nuclear charge radii are supplemented with theoretical error bars. We have successfully demonstrated the ability of the BNN approach to significantly increase the accuracy of nuclear models in the predictions of nuclear charge radii. However, as many before us, we failed to uncover the underlying physics behind the intriguing behavior of charge radii along the calcium isotopic chain.

Bayesian model-emulation of stochastic gravitational-wave spectra for probes of the final-parsec problem with pulsar-timing arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Stephen R.; Simon, Joseph; Sampson, Laura

2017-01-01

The final parsec of supermassive black-hole binary evolution is subject to the complex interplay of stellar loss-cone scattering, circumbinary disk accretion, and gravitational-wave emission, with binary eccentricity affected by all of these. The strain spectrum of gravitational-waves in the pulsar-timing band thus encodes rich information about the binary population's response to these various environmental mechanisms. Current spectral models have heretofore followed basic analytic prescriptions, and attempt to investigate these final-parsec mechanisms in an indirect fashion. Here we describe a new technique to directly probe the environmental properties of supermassive black-hole binaries through "Bayesian model-emulation". We perform black-hole binary population synthesis simulations at a restricted set of environmental parameter combinations, compute the strain spectra from these, then train a Gaussian process to learn the shape of the spectrum at any point in parameter space. We describe this technique, demonstrate its efficacy with a program of simulated datasets, then illustrate its power by directly constraining final-parsec physics in a Bayesian analysis of the NANOGrav 5-year dataset. The technique is fast, flexible, and robust.

Bayesian model-emulation of stochastic gravitational-wave spectra for probes of the final-parsec problem with pulsar-timing arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Stephen; Simon, Joseph; Sampson, Laura

2017-01-01

The final parsec of supermassive black-hole binary evolution is subject to the complex interplay of stellar loss-cone scattering, circumbinary disk accretion, and gravitational-wave emission, with binary eccentricity affected by all of these. The strain spectrum of gravitational-waves in the pulsar-timing band thus encodes rich information about the binary population's response to these various environmental mechanisms. Current spectral models have heretofore followed basic analytic prescriptions, and attempt to investigate these final-parsec mechanisms in an indirect fashion. Here we describe a new technique to directly probe the environmental properties of supermassive black-hole binaries through ``Bayesian model-emulation''. We perform black-hole binary population synthesis simulations at a restricted set of environmental parameter combinations, compute the strain spectra from these, then train a Gaussian process to learn the shape of spectrum at any point in parameter space. We describe this technique, demonstrate its efficacy with a program of simulated datasets, then illustrate its power by directly constraining final-parsec physics in a Bayesian analysis of the NANOGrav 5-year dataset. The technique is fast, flexible, and robust.

Bayesian Integration of Spatial Information

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheng, Ken; Shettleworth, Sara J.; Huttenlocher, Janellen; Rieser, John J.

2007-01-01

Spatial judgments and actions are often based on multiple cues. The authors review a multitude of phenomena on the integration of spatial cues in diverse species to consider how nearly optimally animals combine the cues. Under the banner of Bayesian perception, cues are sometimes combined and weighted in a near optimal fashion. In other instances…

A review on machine learning principles for multi-view biological data integration.

PubMed

Li, Yifeng; Wu, Fang-Xiang; Ngom, Alioune

2018-03-01

Driven by high-throughput sequencing techniques, modern genomic and clinical studies are in a strong need of integrative machine learning models for better use of vast volumes of heterogeneous information in the deep understanding of biological systems and the development of predictive models. How data from multiple sources (called multi-view data) are incorporated in a learning system is a key step for successful analysis. In this article, we provide a comprehensive review on omics and clinical data integration techniques, from a machine learning perspective, for various analyses such as prediction, clustering, dimension reduction and association. We shall show that Bayesian models are able to use prior information and model measurements with various distributions; tree-based methods can either build a tree with all features or collectively make a final decision based on trees learned from each view; kernel methods fuse the similarity matrices learned from individual views together for a final similarity matrix or learning model; network-based fusion methods are capable of inferring direct and indirect associations in a heterogeneous network; matrix factorization models have potential to learn interactions among features from different views; and a range of deep neural networks can be integrated in multi-modal learning for capturing the complex mechanism of biological systems.

Ozone and childhood respiratory disease in three US cities: evaluation of effect measure modification by neighborhood socioeconomic status using a Bayesian hierarchical approach.

PubMed

O' Lenick, Cassandra R; Chang, Howard H; Kramer, Michael R; Winquist, Andrea; Mulholland, James A; Friberg, Mariel D; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt

2017-04-05

Ground-level ozone is a potent airway irritant and a determinant of respiratory morbidity. Susceptibility to the health effects of ambient ozone may be influenced by both intrinsic and extrinsic factors, such as neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES). Questions remain regarding the manner and extent that factors such as SES influence ozone-related health effects, particularly across different study areas. Using a 2-stage modeling approach we evaluated neighborhood SES as a modifier of ozone-related pediatric respiratory morbidity in Atlanta, Dallas, & St. Louis. We acquired multi-year data on emergency department (ED) visits among 5-18 year olds with a primary diagnosis of respiratory disease in each city. Daily concentrations of 8-h maximum ambient ozone were estimated for all ZIP Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTA) in each city by fusing observed concentration data from available network monitors with simulations from an emissions-based chemical transport model. In the first stage, we used conditional logistic regression to estimate ZCTA-specific odds ratios (OR) between ozone and respiratory ED visits, controlling for temporal trends and meteorology. In the second stage, we combined ZCTA-level estimates in a Bayesian hierarchical model to assess overall associations and effect modification by neighborhood SES considering categorical and continuous SES indicators (e.g., ZCTA-specific levels of poverty). We estimated ORs and 95% posterior intervals (PI) for a 25 ppb increase in ozone. The hierarchical model combined effect estimates from 179 ZCTAs in Atlanta, 205 ZCTAs in Dallas, and 151 ZCTAs in St. Louis. The strongest overall association of ozone and pediatric respiratory disease was in Atlanta (OR = 1.08, 95% PI: 1.06, 1.11), followed by Dallas (OR = 1.04, 95% PI: 1.01, 1.07) and St. Louis (OR = 1.03, 95% PI: 0.99, 1.07). Patterns of association across levels of neighborhood SES in each city suggested stronger ORs in low compared to high SES areas, with some evidence of non-linear effect modification. Results suggest that ozone is associated with pediatric respiratory morbidity in multiple US cities; neighborhood SES may modify this association in a non-linear manner. In each city, children living in low SES environments appear to be especially vulnerable given positive ORs and high underlying rates of respiratory morbidity.

Bayesian Data-Model Fit Assessment for Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levy, Roy

2011-01-01

Bayesian approaches to modeling are receiving an increasing amount of attention in the areas of model construction and estimation in factor analysis, structural equation modeling (SEM), and related latent variable models. However, model diagnostics and model criticism remain relatively understudied aspects of Bayesian SEM. This article describes…

Bayesian Localization and Mapping Using GNSS SNR Measurements

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-01

Bayesian Localization and Mapping Using GNSS SNR Measurements Jason T. Isaacs1, Andrew T. Irish1, François Quitin2, Upamanyu Madhow1, and João P...Hespanha1 Abstract— In urban areas, GNSS localization quality is often degraded due to signal blockage and multi-path reflections. When several GNSS ...signals are blocked by buildings, the remaining unblocked GNSS satellites are typically in a poor geometry for localization (nearly collinear along the

A Multi-Route Model of Nicotine-Cotinine Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics and Brain Nicotinic Acetylcholine Receptor Binding in Humans

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Teeguarden, Justin G.; Housand, Conrad; Smith, Jordan N.

The pharmacokinetics of nicotine, the pharmacologically active alkaloid in tobacco responsible for addiction, are well characterized in humans. We developed a physiologically based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model of nicotine pharmacokinetics, brain dosimetry and brain nicotinic acetylcholine receptor (nAChRs) occupancy. A Bayesian framework was applied to optimize model parameters against multiple human data sets. The resulting model was consistent with both calibration and test data sets, but in general underestimated variability. A pharmacodynamic model relating nicotine levels to increases in heart rate as a proxy for the pharmacological effects of nicotine accurately described the nicotine related changes in heart rate and the developmentmore » and decay of tolerance to nicotine. The PBPK model was utilized to quantitatively capture the combined impact of variation in physiological and metabolic parameters, nicotine availability and smoking compensation on the change in number of cigarettes smoked and toxicant exposure in a population of 10,000 people presented with a reduced toxicant (50%), reduced nicotine (50%) cigarette Across the population, toxicant exposure is reduced in some but not all smokers. Reductions are not in proportion to reductions in toxicant yields, largely due to partial compensation in response to reduced nicotine yields. This framework can be used as a key element of a dosimetry-driven risk assessment strategy for cigarette smoke constituents.« less

Profiles of lead in urban dust and the effect of the distance to multi-industry in an old heavy industry city in China.

PubMed

Yu, Yang; Li, Yingxia; Li, Ben; Shen, Zhenyao; Stenstrom, Michael K

2017-03-01

Lead (Pb) concentration in urban dust is often higher than background concentrations and can result in a wide range of health risks to local communities. To understand Pb distribution in urban dust and how multi-industrial activity affects Pb concentration, 21 sampling sites within the heavy industry city of Jilin, China, were analyzed for Pb concentration. Pb concentrations of all 21 urban dust samples from the Jilin City Center were higher than the background concentration for soil in Jilin Province. The analyses show that distance to industry is an important parameter determining health risks associated with Pb in urban dust. The Pb concentration showed an exponential decrease, with increasing distance from industry. Both maximum likelihood estimation and Bayesian analysis were used to estimate the exponential relationship between Pb concentration and distance to multi-industry areas. We found that Bayesian analysis was a better method with less uncertainty for estimating Pb dust concentrations based on their distance to multi-industry, and this approach is recommended for further study. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raje, Deepashree; Mujumdar, P. P.

2010-09-01

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change.

Genomic Bayesian functional regression models with interactions for predicting wheat grain yield using hyper-spectral image data.

PubMed

Montesinos-López, Abelardo; Montesinos-López, Osval A; Cuevas, Jaime; Mata-López, Walter A; Burgueño, Juan; Mondal, Sushismita; Huerta, Julio; Singh, Ravi; Autrique, Enrique; González-Pérez, Lorena; Crossa, José

2017-01-01

Modern agriculture uses hyperspectral cameras that provide hundreds of reflectance data at discrete narrow bands in many environments. These bands often cover the whole visible light spectrum and part of the infrared and ultraviolet light spectra. With the bands, vegetation indices are constructed for predicting agronomically important traits such as grain yield and biomass. However, since vegetation indices only use some wavelengths (referred to as bands), we propose using all bands simultaneously as predictor variables for the primary trait grain yield; results of several multi-environment maize (Aguate et al. in Crop Sci 57(5):1-8, 2017) and wheat (Montesinos-López et al. in Plant Methods 13(4):1-23, 2017) breeding trials indicated that using all bands produced better prediction accuracy than vegetation indices. However, until now, these prediction models have not accounted for the effects of genotype × environment (G × E) and band × environment (B × E) interactions incorporating genomic or pedigree information. In this study, we propose Bayesian functional regression models that take into account all available bands, genomic or pedigree information, the main effects of lines and environments, as well as G × E and B × E interaction effects. The data set used is comprised of 976 wheat lines evaluated for grain yield in three environments (Drought, Irrigated and Reduced Irrigation). The reflectance data were measured in 250 discrete narrow bands ranging from 392 to 851 nm (nm). The proposed Bayesian functional regression models were implemented using two types of basis: B-splines and Fourier. Results of the proposed Bayesian functional regression models, including all the wavelengths for predicting grain yield, were compared with results from conventional models with and without bands. We observed that the models with B × E interaction terms were the most accurate models, whereas the functional regression models (with B-splines and Fourier basis) and the conventional models performed similarly in terms of prediction accuracy. However, the functional regression models are more parsimonious and computationally more efficient because the number of beta coefficients to be estimated is 21 (number of basis), rather than estimating the 250 regression coefficients for all bands. In this study adding pedigree or genomic information did not increase prediction accuracy.

SELFI: an object-based, Bayesian method for faint emission line source detection in MUSE deep field data cubes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meillier, Céline; Chatelain, Florent; Michel, Olivier; Bacon, Roland; Piqueras, Laure; Bacher, Raphael; Ayasso, Hacheme

2016-04-01

We present SELFI, the Source Emission Line FInder, a new Bayesian method optimized for detection of faint galaxies in Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer (MUSE) deep fields. MUSE is the new panoramic integral field spectrograph at the Very Large Telescope (VLT) that has unique capabilities for spectroscopic investigation of the deep sky. It has provided data cubes with 324 million voxels over a single 1 arcmin2 field of view. To address the challenge of faint-galaxy detection in these large data cubes, we developed a new method that processes 3D data either for modeling or for estimation and extraction of source configurations. This object-based approach yields a natural sparse representation of the sources in massive data fields, such as MUSE data cubes. In the Bayesian framework, the parameters that describe the observed sources are considered random variables. The Bayesian model leads to a general and robust algorithm where the parameters are estimated in a fully data-driven way. This detection algorithm was applied to the MUSE observation of Hubble Deep Field-South. With 27 h total integration time, these observations provide a catalog of 189 sources of various categories and with secured redshift. The algorithm retrieved 91% of the galaxies with only 9% false detection. This method also allowed the discovery of three new Lyα emitters and one [OII] emitter, all without any Hubble Space Telescope counterpart. We analyzed the reasons for failure for some targets, and found that the most important limitation of the method is when faint sources are located in the vicinity of bright spatially resolved galaxies that cannot be approximated by the Sérsic elliptical profile. The software and its documentation are available on the MUSE science web service (muse-vlt.eu/science).

Bayesian network learning for natural hazard assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, Kristin

2016-04-01

Even though quite different in occurrence and consequences, from a modelling perspective many natural hazards share similar properties and challenges. Their complex nature as well as lacking knowledge about their driving forces and potential effects make their analysis demanding. On top of the uncertainty about the modelling framework, inaccurate or incomplete event observations and the intrinsic randomness of the natural phenomenon add up to different interacting layers of uncertainty, which require a careful handling. Thus, for reliable natural hazard assessments it is crucial not only to capture and quantify involved uncertainties, but also to express and communicate uncertainties in an intuitive way. Decision-makers, who often find it difficult to deal with uncertainties, might otherwise return to familiar (mostly deterministic) proceedings. In the scope of the DFG research training group „NatRiskChange" we apply the probabilistic framework of Bayesian networks for diverse natural hazard and vulnerability studies. The great potential of Bayesian networks was already shown in previous natural hazard assessments. Treating each model component as random variable, Bayesian networks aim at capturing the joint distribution of all considered variables. Hence, each conditional distribution of interest (e.g. the effect of precautionary measures on damage reduction) can be inferred. The (in-)dependencies between the considered variables can be learned purely data driven or be given by experts. Even a combination of both is possible. By translating the (in-)dependences into a graph structure, Bayesian networks provide direct insights into the workings of the system and allow to learn about the underlying processes. Besides numerous studies on the topic, learning Bayesian networks from real-world data remains challenging. In previous studies, e.g. on earthquake induced ground motion and flood damage assessments, we tackled the problems arising with continuous variables and incomplete observations. Further studies rise the challenge of relying on very small data sets. Since parameter estimates for complex models based on few observations are unreliable, it is necessary to focus on simplified, yet still meaningful models. A so called Markov Blanket approach is developed to identify the most relevant model components and to construct a simple Bayesian network based on those findings. Since the proceeding is completely data driven, it can easily be transferred to various applications in natural hazard domains. This study is funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) within the research training programme GRK 2043/1 "NatRiskChange - Natural hazards and risks in a changing world" at Potsdam University.

Superensemble forecasts of dengue outbreaks

PubMed Central

Kandula, Sasikiran; Shaman, Jeffrey

2016-01-01

In recent years, a number of systems capable of predicting future infectious disease incidence have been developed. As more of these systems are operationalized, it is important that the forecasts generated by these different approaches be formally reconciled so that individual forecast error and bias are reduced. Here we present a first example of such multi-system, or superensemble, forecast. We develop three distinct systems for predicting dengue, which are applied retrospectively to forecast outbreak characteristics in San Juan, Puerto Rico. We then use Bayesian averaging methods to combine the predictions from these systems and create superensemble forecasts. We demonstrate that on average, the superensemble approach produces more accurate forecasts than those made from any of the individual forecasting systems. PMID:27733698

Bayesian multimodel inference for dose-response studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Albers, P.H.

2007-01-01

Statistical inference in dose?response studies is model-based: The analyst posits a mathematical model of the relation between exposure and response, estimates parameters of the model, and reports conclusions conditional on the model. Such analyses rarely include any accounting for the uncertainties associated with model selection. The Bayesian inferential system provides a convenient framework for model selection and multimodel inference. In this paper we briefly describe the Bayesian paradigm and Bayesian multimodel inference. We then present a family of models for multinomial dose?response data and apply Bayesian multimodel inferential methods to the analysis of data on the reproductive success of American kestrels (Falco sparveriuss) exposed to various sublethal dietary concentrations of methylmercury.

Risk assessments using the Strain Index and the TLV for HAL, Part II: Multi-task jobs and prevalence of CTS.

PubMed

Kapellusch, Jay M; Silverstein, Barbara A; Bao, Stephen S; Thiese, Mathew S; Merryweather, Andrew S; Hegmann, Kurt T; Garg, Arun

2018-02-01

The Strain Index (SI) and the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH) threshold limit value for hand activity level (TLV for HAL) have been shown to be associated with prevalence of distal upper-limb musculoskeletal disorders such as carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS). The SI and TLV for HAL disagree on more than half of task exposure classifications. Similarly, time-weighted average (TWA), peak, and typical exposure techniques used to quantity physical exposure from multi-task jobs have shown between-technique agreement ranging from 61% to 93%, depending upon whether the SI or TLV for HAL model was used. This study compared exposure-response relationships between each model-technique combination and prevalence of CTS. Physical exposure data from 1,834 workers (710 with multi-task jobs) were analyzed using the SI and TLV for HAL and the TWA, typical, and peak multi-task job exposure techniques. Additionally, exposure classifications from the SI and TLV for HAL were combined into a single measure and evaluated. Prevalent CTS cases were identified using symptoms and nerve-conduction studies. Mixed effects logistic regression was used to quantify exposure-response relationships between categorized (i.e., low, medium, and high) physical exposure and CTS prevalence for all model-technique combinations, and for multi-task workers, mono-task workers, and all workers combined. Except for TWA TLV for HAL, all model-technique combinations showed monotonic increases in risk of CTS with increased physical exposure. The combined-models approach showed stronger association than the SI or TLV for HAL for multi-task workers. Despite differences in exposure classifications, nearly all model-technique combinations showed exposure-response relationships with prevalence of CTS for the combined sample of mono-task and multi-task workers. Both the TLV for HAL and the SI, with the TWA or typical techniques, appear useful for epidemiological studies and surveillance. However, the utility of TWA, typical, and peak techniques for job design and intervention is dubious.

A guide to Bayesian model selection for ecologists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooten, Mevin B.; Hobbs, N.T.

2015-01-01

The steady upward trend in the use of model selection and Bayesian methods in ecological research has made it clear that both approaches to inference are important for modern analysis of models and data. However, in teaching Bayesian methods and in working with our research colleagues, we have noticed a general dissatisfaction with the available literature on Bayesian model selection and multimodel inference. Students and researchers new to Bayesian methods quickly find that the published advice on model selection is often preferential in its treatment of options for analysis, frequently advocating one particular method above others. The recent appearance of many articles and textbooks on Bayesian modeling has provided welcome background on relevant approaches to model selection in the Bayesian framework, but most of these are either very narrowly focused in scope or inaccessible to ecologists. Moreover, the methodological details of Bayesian model selection approaches are spread thinly throughout the literature, appearing in journals from many different fields. Our aim with this guide is to condense the large body of literature on Bayesian approaches to model selection and multimodel inference and present it specifically for quantitative ecologists as neutrally as possible. We also bring to light a few important and fundamental concepts relating directly to model selection that seem to have gone unnoticed in the ecological literature. Throughout, we provide only a minimal discussion of philosophy, preferring instead to examine the breadth of approaches as well as their practical advantages and disadvantages. This guide serves as a reference for ecologists using Bayesian methods, so that they can better understand their options and can make an informed choice that is best aligned with their goals for inference.

A novel Bayesian respiratory motion model to estimate and resolve uncertainty in image-guided cardiac interventions.

PubMed

Peressutti, Devis; Penney, Graeme P; Housden, R James; Kolbitsch, Christoph; Gomez, Alberto; Rijkhorst, Erik-Jan; Barratt, Dean C; Rhode, Kawal S; King, Andrew P

2013-05-01

In image-guided cardiac interventions, respiratory motion causes misalignments between the pre-procedure roadmap of the heart used for guidance and the intra-procedure position of the heart, reducing the accuracy of the guidance information and leading to potentially dangerous consequences. We propose a novel technique for motion-correcting the pre-procedural information that combines a probabilistic MRI-derived affine motion model with intra-procedure real-time 3D echocardiography (echo) images in a Bayesian framework. The probabilistic model incorporates a measure of confidence in its motion estimates which enables resolution of the potentially conflicting information supplied by the model and the echo data. Unlike models proposed so far, our method allows the final motion estimate to deviate from the model-produced estimate according to the information provided by the echo images, so adapting to the complex variability of respiratory motion. The proposed method is evaluated using gold-standard MRI-derived motion fields and simulated 3D echo data for nine volunteers and real 3D live echo images for four volunteers. The Bayesian method is compared to 5 other motion estimation techniques and results show mean/max improvements in estimation accuracy of 10.6%/18.9% for simulated echo images and 20.8%/41.5% for real 3D live echo data, over the best comparative estimation method. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mixed linear-non-linear inversion of crustal deformation data: Bayesian inference of model, weighting and regularization parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukuda, Jun'ichi; Johnson, Kaj M.

2010-06-01

We present a unified theoretical framework and solution method for probabilistic, Bayesian inversions of crustal deformation data. The inversions involve multiple data sets with unknown relative weights, model parameters that are related linearly or non-linearly through theoretic models to observations, prior information on model parameters and regularization priors to stabilize underdetermined problems. To efficiently handle non-linear inversions in which some of the model parameters are linearly related to the observations, this method combines both analytical least-squares solutions and a Monte Carlo sampling technique. In this method, model parameters that are linearly and non-linearly related to observations, relative weights of multiple data sets and relative weights of prior information and regularization priors are determined in a unified Bayesian framework. In this paper, we define the mixed linear-non-linear inverse problem, outline the theoretical basis for the method, provide a step-by-step algorithm for the inversion, validate the inversion method using synthetic data and apply the method to two real data sets. We apply the method to inversions of multiple geodetic data sets with unknown relative data weights for interseismic fault slip and locking depth. We also apply the method to the problem of estimating the spatial distribution of coseismic slip on faults with unknown fault geometry, relative data weights and smoothing regularization weight.

Context Relevant Prediction Model for COPD Domain Using Bayesian Belief Network

PubMed Central

Saleh, Lokman; Ajami, Hicham; Mili, Hafedh

2017-01-01

In the last three decades, researchers have examined extensively how context-aware systems can assist people, specifically those suffering from incurable diseases, to help them cope with their medical illness. Over the years, a huge number of studies on Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) have been published. However, how to derive relevant attributes and early detection of COPD exacerbations remains a challenge. In this research work, we will use an efficient algorithm to select relevant attributes where there is no proper approach in this domain. Such algorithm predicts exacerbations with high accuracy by adding discretization process, and organizes the pertinent attributes in priority order based on their impact to facilitate the emergency medical treatment. In this paper, we propose an extension of our existing Helper Context-Aware Engine System (HCES) for COPD. This project uses Bayesian network algorithm to depict the dependency between the COPD symptoms (attributes) in order to overcome the insufficiency and the independency hypothesis of naïve Bayesian. In addition, the dependency in Bayesian network is realized using TAN algorithm rather than consulting pneumologists. All these combined algorithms (discretization, selection, dependency, and the ordering of the relevant attributes) constitute an effective prediction model, comparing to effective ones. Moreover, an investigation and comparison of different scenarios of these algorithms are also done to verify which sequence of steps of prediction model gives more accurate results. Finally, we designed and validated a computer-aided support application to integrate different steps of this model. The findings of our system HCES has shown promising results using Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUC = 81.5%). PMID:28644419

Data Assimilation and Propagation of Uncertainty in Multiscale Cardiovascular Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiavazzi, Daniele; Marsden, Alison

2015-11-01

Cardiovascular modeling is the application of computational tools to predict hemodynamics. State-of-the-art techniques couple a 3D incompressible Navier-Stokes solver with a boundary circulation model and can predict local and peripheral hemodynamics, analyze the post-operative performance of surgical designs and complement clinical data collection minimizing invasive and risky measurement practices. The ability of these tools to make useful predictions is directly related to their accuracy in representing measured physiologies. Tuning of model parameters is therefore a topic of paramount importance and should include clinical data uncertainty, revealing how this uncertainty will affect the predictions. We propose a fully Bayesian, multi-level approach to data assimilation of uncertain clinical data in multiscale circulation models. To reduce the computational cost, we use a stable, condensed approximation of the 3D model build by linear sparse regression of the pressure/flow rate relationship at the outlets. Finally, we consider the problem of non-invasively propagating the uncertainty in model parameters to the resulting hemodynamics and compare Monte Carlo simulation with Stochastic Collocation approaches based on Polynomial or Multi-resolution Chaos expansions.

Diversity among elephant grass genotypes using Bayesian multi-trait model.

PubMed

Rossi, D A; Daher, R F; Barbé, T C; Lima, R S N; Costa, A F; Ribeiro, L P; Teodoro, P E; Bhering, L L

2017-09-27

Elephant grass is a perennial tropical grass with great potential for energy generation from biomass. The objective of this study was to estimate the genetic diversity among elephant grass accessions based on morpho-agronomic and biomass quality traits and to identify promising genotypes for obtaining hybrids with high energetic biomass production capacity. The experiment was installed at experimental area of the State Agricultural College Antônio Sarlo, in Campos dos Goytacazes. Fifty-two elephant grass genotypes were evaluated in a randomized block design with two replicates. Components of variance and the genotypic means were obtained using a Bayesian multi-trait model. We considered 350,000 iterations in the Gibbs sampler algorithm for each parameter adopted, with a warm-up period (burn-in) of 50,000 Iterations. For obtaining an uncorrelated sample, we considered five iterations (thinning) as a spacing between sampled points, which resulted in a final sample size 60,000. Subsequently, the Mahalanobis distance between each pair of genotypes was estimated. Estimates of genotypic variance indicated a favorable condition for gains in all traits. Elephant grass accessions presented greater variability for biomass quality traits, for which three groups were formed, while for the agronomic traits, two groups were formed. Crosses between Mercker Pinda México x Mercker 86-México, Mercker Pinda México x Turrialba, and Mercker 86-México x Taiwan A-25 can be carried out for obtaining elephant grass hybrids for energy purposes.

On the Adequacy of Bayesian Evaluations of Categorization Models: Reply to Vanpaemel and Lee (2012)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wills, Andy J.; Pothos, Emmanuel M.

2012-01-01

Vanpaemel and Lee (2012) argued, and we agree, that the comparison of formal models can be facilitated by Bayesian methods. However, Bayesian methods neither precede nor supplant our proposals (Wills & Pothos, 2012), as Bayesian methods can be applied both to our proposals and to their polar opposites. Furthermore, the use of Bayesian methods to…

Bootstrap study of genome-enabled prediction reliabilities using haplotype blocks across Nordic Red cattle breeds.

PubMed

Cuyabano, B C D; Su, G; Rosa, G J M; Lund, M S; Gianola, D

2015-10-01

This study compared the accuracy of genome-enabled prediction models using individual single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) or haplotype blocks as covariates when using either a single breed or a combined population of Nordic Red cattle. The main objective was to compare predictions of breeding values of complex traits using a combined training population with haplotype blocks, with predictions using a single breed as training population and individual SNP as predictors. To compare the prediction reliabilities, bootstrap samples were taken from the test data set. With the bootstrapped samples of prediction reliabilities, we built and graphed confidence ellipses to allow comparisons. Finally, measures of statistical distances were used to calculate the gain in predictive ability. Our analyses are innovative in the context of assessment of predictive models, allowing a better understanding of prediction reliabilities and providing a statistical basis to effectively calibrate whether one prediction scenario is indeed more accurate than another. An ANOVA indicated that use of haplotype blocks produced significant gains mainly when Bayesian mixture models were used but not when Bayesian BLUP was fitted to the data. Furthermore, when haplotype blocks were used to train prediction models in a combined Nordic Red cattle population, we obtained up to a statistically significant 5.5% average gain in prediction accuracy, over predictions using individual SNP and training the model with a single breed. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fingerprinting Sources of Suspended Sediment in a Canadian Agricultural Watershed Using the MixSIAR Bayesian Unmixing Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, J. P.; Owens, P. N.; Gaspar, L.; Lobb, D. A.; Petticrew, E. L.

2015-12-01

An understanding of sediment redistribution processes and the main sediment sources within a watershed is needed to support watershed management strategies. The fingerprinting technique is increasingly being recognized as a method for establishing the source of the sediment transported within watersheds. However, the different behaviour of the various fingerprinting properties has been recognized as a major limitation of the technique, and the uncertainty associated with tracer selection needs to be addressed. There are also questions associated with which modelling approach (frequentist or Bayesian) is the best to unmix complex environmental mixtures, such as river sediment. This study aims to compare and evaluate the differences between fingerprinting predictions provided by a Bayesian unmixing model (MixSIAR) using different groups of tracer properties for use in sediment source identification. We used fallout radionuclides (e.g. 137Cs) and geochemical elements (e.g. As) as conventional fingerprinting properties, and colour parameters as emerging properties; both alone and in combination. These fingerprinting properties are being used (i.e. Koiter et al., 2013; Barthod et al., 2015) to determine the proportional contributions of fine sediment in the South Tobacco Creek Watershed, an agricultural watershed located in Manitoba, Canada. We show that the unmixing model using a combination of fallout radionuclides and geochemical tracers gave similar results to the model based on colour parameters. Furthermore, we show that a model that combines all tracers (i.e. radionuclide/geochemical and colour) gave similar results, showing that sediment sources change from predominantly topsoil in the upper reaches of the watershed to channel bank and bedrock outcrop material in the lower reaches. Barthod LRM et al. (2015). Selecting color-based tracers and classifying sediment sources in the assessment of sediment dynamics using sediment source fingerprinting. J Environ Qual. Doi:10.2134/jeq2015.01.0043 Koiter AJ et al. (2013). Investigating the role of connectivity and scale in assessing the sources of sediment in an agricultural watershed in the Canadian prairies using sediment source fingerprinting. J Soils Sediments, 13, 1676-1691.

Extreme-Scale Bayesian Inference for Uncertainty Quantification of Complex Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Biros, George

Uncertainty quantification (UQ)—that is, quantifying uncertainties in complex mathematical models and their large-scale computational implementations—is widely viewed as one of the outstanding challenges facing the field of CS&E over the coming decade. The EUREKA project set to address the most difficult class of UQ problems: those for which both the underlying PDE model as well as the uncertain parameters are of extreme scale. In the project we worked on these extreme-scale challenges in the following four areas: 1. Scalable parallel algorithms for sampling and characterizing the posterior distribution that exploit the structure of the underlying PDEs and parameter-to-observable map. Thesemore » include structure-exploiting versions of the randomized maximum likelihood method, which aims to overcome the intractability of employing conventional MCMC methods for solving extreme-scale Bayesian inversion problems by appealing to and adapting ideas from large-scale PDE-constrained optimization, which have been very successful at exploring high-dimensional spaces. 2. Scalable parallel algorithms for construction of prior and likelihood functions based on learning methods and non-parametric density estimation. Constructing problem-specific priors remains a critical challenge in Bayesian inference, and more so in high dimensions. Another challenge is construction of likelihood functions that capture unmodeled couplings between observations and parameters. We will create parallel algorithms for non-parametric density estimation using high dimensional N-body methods and combine them with supervised learning techniques for the construction of priors and likelihood functions. 3. Bayesian inadequacy models, which augment physics models with stochastic models that represent their imperfections. The success of the Bayesian inference framework depends on the ability to represent the uncertainty due to imperfections of the mathematical model of the phenomena of interest. This is a central challenge in UQ, especially for large-scale models. We propose to develop the mathematical tools to address these challenges in the context of extreme-scale problems. 4. Parallel scalable algorithms for Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED). Bayesian inversion yields quantified uncertainties in the model parameters, which can be propagated forward through the model to yield uncertainty in outputs of interest. This opens the way for designing new experiments to reduce the uncertainties in the model parameters and model predictions. Such experimental design problems have been intractable for large-scale problems using conventional methods; we will create OED algorithms that exploit the structure of the PDE model and the parameter-to-output map to overcome these challenges. Parallel algorithms for these four problems were created, analyzed, prototyped, implemented, tuned, and scaled up for leading-edge supercomputers, including UT-Austin’s own 10 petaflops Stampede system, ANL’s Mira system, and ORNL’s Titan system. While our focus is on fundamental mathematical/computational methods and algorithms, we will assess our methods on model problems derived from several DOE mission applications, including multiscale mechanics and ice sheet dynamics.« less

Intermediate-term forecasting of aftershocks from an early aftershock sequence: Bayesian and ensemble forecasting approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omi, Takahiro; Ogata, Yosihiko; Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki

2015-04-01

Because aftershock occurrences can cause significant seismic risks for a considerable time after the main shock, prospective forecasting of the intermediate-term aftershock activity as soon as possible is important. The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model with the maximum likelihood estimate effectively reproduces general aftershock activity including secondary or higher-order aftershocks and can be employed for the forecasting. However, because we cannot always expect the accurate parameter estimation from incomplete early aftershock data where many events are missing, such forecasting using only a single estimated parameter set (plug-in forecasting) can frequently perform poorly. Therefore, we here propose Bayesian forecasting that combines the forecasts by the ETAS model with various probable parameter sets given the data. By conducting forecasting tests of 1 month period aftershocks based on the first 1 day data after the main shock as an example of the early intermediate-term forecasting, we show that the Bayesian forecasting performs better than the plug-in forecasting on average in terms of the log-likelihood score. Furthermore, to improve forecasting of large aftershocks, we apply a nonparametric (NP) model using magnitude data during the learning period and compare its forecasting performance with that of the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) formula. We show that the NP forecast performs better than the G-R formula in some cases but worse in other cases. Therefore, robust forecasting can be obtained by employing an ensemble forecast that combines the two complementary forecasts. Our proposed method is useful for a stable unbiased intermediate-term assessment of aftershock probabilities.

Bayesian selection of misspecified models is overconfident and may cause spurious posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Yang, Ziheng; Zhu, Tianqi

2018-02-20

The Bayesian method is noted to produce spuriously high posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees in analysis of large datasets, but the precise reasons for this overconfidence are unknown. In general, the performance of Bayesian selection of misspecified models is poorly understood, even though this is of great scientific interest since models are never true in real data analysis. Here we characterize the asymptotic behavior of Bayesian model selection and show that when the competing models are equally wrong, Bayesian model selection exhibits surprising and polarized behaviors in large datasets, supporting one model with full force while rejecting the others. If one model is slightly less wrong than the other, the less wrong model will eventually win when the amount of data increases, but the method may become overconfident before it becomes reliable. We suggest that this extreme behavior may be a major factor for the spuriously high posterior probabilities for evolutionary trees. The philosophical implications of our results to the application of Bayesian model selection to evaluate opposing scientific hypotheses are yet to be explored, as are the behaviors of non-Bayesian methods in similar situations.

Probabilistic models in human sensorimotor control

PubMed Central

Wolpert, Daniel M.

2009-01-01

Sensory and motor uncertainty form a fundamental constraint on human sensorimotor control. Bayesian decision theory (BDT) has emerged as a unifying framework to understand how the central nervous system performs optimal estimation and control in the face of such uncertainty. BDT has two components: Bayesian statistics and decision theory. Here we review Bayesian statistics and show how it applies to estimating the state of the world and our own body. Recent results suggest that when learning novel tasks we are able to learn the statistical properties of both the world and our own sensory apparatus so as to perform estimation using Bayesian statistics. We review studies which suggest that humans can combine multiple sources of information to form maximum likelihood estimates, can incorporate prior beliefs about possible states of the world so as to generate maximum a posteriori estimates and can use Kalman filter-based processes to estimate time-varying states. Finally, we review Bayesian decision theory in motor control and how the central nervous system processes errors to determine loss functions and optimal actions. We review results that suggest we plan movements based on statistics of our actions that result from signal-dependent noise on our motor outputs. Taken together these studies provide a statistical framework for how the motor system performs in the presence of uncertainty. PMID:17628731

Statistical modeling for Bayesian extrapolation of adult clinical trial information in pediatric drug evaluation.

PubMed

Gamalo-Siebers, Margaret; Savic, Jasmina; Basu, Cynthia; Zhao, Xin; Gopalakrishnan, Mathangi; Gao, Aijun; Song, Guochen; Baygani, Simin; Thompson, Laura; Xia, H Amy; Price, Karen; Tiwari, Ram; Carlin, Bradley P

2017-07-01

Children represent a large underserved population of "therapeutic orphans," as an estimated 80% of children are treated off-label. However, pediatric drug development often faces substantial challenges, including economic, logistical, technical, and ethical barriers, among others. Among many efforts trying to remove these barriers, increased recent attention has been paid to extrapolation; that is, the leveraging of available data from adults or older age groups to draw conclusions for the pediatric population. The Bayesian statistical paradigm is natural in this setting, as it permits the combining (or "borrowing") of information across disparate sources, such as the adult and pediatric data. In this paper, authored by the pediatric subteam of the Drug Information Association Bayesian Scientific Working Group and Adaptive Design Working Group, we develop, illustrate, and provide suggestions on Bayesian statistical methods that could be used to design improved pediatric development programs that use all available information in the most efficient manner. A variety of relevant Bayesian approaches are described, several of which are illustrated through 2 case studies: extrapolating adult efficacy data to expand the labeling for Remicade to include pediatric ulcerative colitis and extrapolating adult exposure-response information for antiepileptic drugs to pediatrics. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Information content of incubation experiments for inverse estimation of pools in the Rothamsted carbon model: a Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scharnagl, Benedikt; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Vereecken, Harry; Herbst, Michael

2010-05-01

Turnover of soil organic matter is usually described with multi-compartment models. However, a major drawback of these models is that the conceptually defined compartments (or pools) do not necessarily correspond to measurable soil organic carbon (SOC) fractions in real practice. This not only impairs our ability to rigorously evaluate SOC models but also makes it difficult to derive accurate initial states. In this study, we tested the usefulness and applicability of inverse modeling to derive the various carbon pool sizes in the Rothamsted carbon model (ROTHC) using a synthetic time series of mineralization rates from laboratory incubation. To appropriately account for data and model uncertainty we considered a Bayesian approach using the recently developed DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. This Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme derives the posterior probability density distribution of the initial pool sizes at the start of incubation from observed mineralization rates. We used the Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify the information contained in the data and to illustrate the effect of increasing incubation times on the reliability of the pool size estimates. Our results show that measured mineralization rates generally provide sufficient information to reliably estimate the sizes of all active pools in the ROTHC model. However, with about 900 days of incubation, these experiments are excessively long. The use of prior information on microbial biomass provided a way forward to significantly reduce uncertainty and required duration of incubation to about 600 days. Explicit consideration of model parameter uncertainty in the estimation process further impaired the identifiability of initial pools, especially for the more slowly decomposing pools. Our illustrative case studies show how Bayesian inverse modeling can be used to provide important insights into the information content of incubation experiments. Moreover, the outcome of this virtual experiment helps to explain the results of related real-world studies on SOC dynamics.

Human Activity Recognition by Combining a Small Number of Classifiers.

PubMed

Nazabal, Alfredo; Garcia-Moreno, Pablo; Artes-Rodriguez, Antonio; Ghahramani, Zoubin

2016-09-01

We consider the problem of daily human activity recognition (HAR) using multiple wireless inertial sensors, and specifically, HAR systems with a very low number of sensors, each one providing an estimation of the performed activities. We propose new Bayesian models to combine the output of the sensors. The models are based on a soft outputs combination of individual classifiers to deal with the small number of sensors. We also incorporate the dynamic nature of human activities as a first-order homogeneous Markov chain. We develop both inductive and transductive inference methods for each model to be employed in supervised and semisupervised situations, respectively. Using different real HAR databases, we compare our classifiers combination models against a single classifier that employs all the signals from the sensors. Our models exhibit consistently a reduction of the error rate and an increase of robustness against sensor failures. Our models also outperform other classifiers combination models that do not consider soft outputs and an Markovian structure of the human activities.

Bayesian Fundamentalism or Enlightenment? On the explanatory status and theoretical contributions of Bayesian models of cognition.

PubMed

Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

2011-08-01

The prominence of Bayesian modeling of cognition has increased recently largely because of mathematical advances in specifying and deriving predictions from complex probabilistic models. Much of this research aims to demonstrate that cognitive behavior can be explained from rational principles alone, without recourse to psychological or neurological processes and representations. We note commonalities between this rational approach and other movements in psychology - namely, Behaviorism and evolutionary psychology - that set aside mechanistic explanations or make use of optimality assumptions. Through these comparisons, we identify a number of challenges that limit the rational program's potential contribution to psychological theory. Specifically, rational Bayesian models are significantly unconstrained, both because they are uninformed by a wide range of process-level data and because their assumptions about the environment are generally not grounded in empirical measurement. The psychological implications of most Bayesian models are also unclear. Bayesian inference itself is conceptually trivial, but strong assumptions are often embedded in the hypothesis sets and the approximation algorithms used to derive model predictions, without a clear delineation between psychological commitments and implementational details. Comparing multiple Bayesian models of the same task is rare, as is the realization that many Bayesian models recapitulate existing (mechanistic level) theories. Despite the expressive power of current Bayesian models, we argue they must be developed in conjunction with mechanistic considerations to offer substantive explanations of cognition. We lay out several means for such an integration, which take into account the representations on which Bayesian inference operates, as well as the algorithms and heuristics that carry it out. We argue this unification will better facilitate lasting contributions to psychological theory, avoiding the pitfalls that have plagued previous theoretical movements.

Constraining the symmetry energy with heavy-ion collisions and Bayesian analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsang, C. Y.; Jhang, G.; Morfouace, P.; Lynch, W. G.; Tsang, M. B.; HiRA Collaboration

2017-09-01

To extract constraints on symmetry energy terms in nuclear Equation of State (EoS), data from heavy ion reactions, are often compared to calculations from transport models. As multiple model input parameters are needed in the transport model, it is necessary to do multi-parameter analysis to understand the relationship especially if strong correlations exist among the parameters. In this talk, I will discuss how four symmetry energy parameters, So, (Symmetry energy) and L (slope) at saturation density as well as the nucleon scaler effective mass (ms*) and the nucleon effective mass splitting, (FI) are obtained by comparing transport mode results with experimental data such as isospin diffusions and n/p spectral ratios using MADAI Bayesian analysis software. Probability of each parameter having a certain value given experimental data can be calculated with Bayes theorem by Markov Chain Monte Carlo integration. Results using single and double ratios of neutron and proton spectra from 124Sn +124Sn, 112Sn +112Sn collisions at 120 MeV/u as well as isospin diffusion from Sn +Sn isotopes, at 50 and 35 MeV/u will be presented. This research is supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. PHY-1565546.

Bayesian analysis of multimodal data and brain imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assadi, Amir H.; Eghbalnia, Hamid; Backonja, Miroslav; Wakai, Ronald T.; Rutecki, Paul; Haughton, Victor

2000-06-01

It is often the case that information about a process can be obtained using a variety of methods. Each method is employed because of specific advantages over the competing alternatives. An example in medical neuro-imaging is the choice between fMRI and MEG modes where fMRI can provide high spatial resolution in comparison to the superior temporal resolution of MEG. The combination of data from varying modes provides the opportunity to infer results that may not be possible by means of any one mode alone. We discuss a Bayesian and learning theoretic framework for enhanced feature extraction that is particularly suited to multi-modal investigations of massive data sets from multiple experiments. In the following Bayesian approach, acquired knowledge (information) regarding various aspects of the process are all directly incorporated into the formulation. This information can come from a variety of sources. In our case, it represents statistical information obtained from other modes of data collection. The information is used to train a learning machine to estimate a probability distribution, which is used in turn by a second machine as a prior, in order to produce a more refined estimation of the distribution of events. The computational demand of the algorithm is handled by proposing a distributed parallel implementation on a cluster of workstations that can be scaled to address real-time needs if required. We provide a simulation of these methods on a set of synthetically generated MEG and EEG data. We show how spatial and temporal resolutions improve by using prior distributions. The method on fMRI signals permits one to construct the probability distribution of the non-linear hemodynamics of the human brain (real data). These computational results are in agreement with biologically based measurements of other labs, as reported to us by researchers from UK. We also provide preliminary analysis involving multi-electrode cortical recording that accompanies behavioral data in pain experiments on freely moving mice subjected to moderate heat delivered by an electric bulb. Summary of new or breakthrough ideas: (1) A new method to estimate probability distribution for measurement of nonlinear hemodynamics of brain from a multi- modal neuronal data. This is the first time that such an idea is tried, to our knowledge. (2) Breakthrough in improvement of time resolution of fMRI signals using (1) above.

Association of climate drivers with rainfall in New South Wales, Australia, using Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duc, Hiep Nguyen; Rivett, Kelly; MacSween, Katrina; Le-Anh, Linh

2017-01-01

Rainfall in New South Wales (NSW), located in the southeast of the Australian continent, is known to be influenced by four major climate drivers: the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Many studies have shown the influences of ENSO, IPO modulation, SAM and IOD on rainfall in Australia and on southeast Australia in particular. However, only limited work has been undertaken using a multiple regression framework to examine the extent of the combined effect of these climate drivers on rainfall. This paper analysed the role of these combined climate drivers and their interaction on the rainfall in NSW using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to account for model uncertainty by considering each of the linear models across the whole model space which is equal to the set of all possible combinations of predictors to find the model posterior probabilities and their expected predictor coefficients. Using BMA for linear regression models, we are able to corroborate and confirm the results from many previous studies. In addition, the method gives the ranking order of importance and the probability of the association of each of the climate drivers and their interaction on the rainfall at a site. The ability to quantify the relative contribution of the climate drivers offers the key to understand the complex interaction of drivers on rainfall, or lack of rainfall in a region, such as the three big droughts in southeastern Australia which have been the subject of discussion and debate recently on their causes.

How the Bayesians Got Their Beliefs (and What Those Beliefs Actually Are): Comment on Bowers and Davis (2012)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffiths, Thomas L.; Chater, Nick; Norris, Dennis; Pouget, Alexandre

2012-01-01

Bowers and Davis (2012) criticize Bayesian modelers for telling "just so" stories about cognition and neuroscience. Their criticisms are weakened by not giving an accurate characterization of the motivation behind Bayesian modeling or the ways in which Bayesian models are used and by not evaluating this theoretical framework against specific…

Multi-class segmentation of neuronal electron microscopy images using deep learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khobragade, Nivedita; Agarwal, Chirag

2018-03-01

Study of connectivity of neural circuits is an essential step towards a better understanding of functioning of the nervous system. With the recent improvement in imaging techniques, high-resolution and high-volume images are being generated requiring automated segmentation techniques. We present a pixel-wise classification method based on Bayesian SegNet architecture. We carried out multi-class segmentation on serial section Transmission Electron Microscopy (ssTEM) images of Drosophila third instar larva ventral nerve cord, labeling the four classes of neuron membranes, neuron intracellular space, mitochondria and glia / extracellular space. Bayesian SegNet was trained using 256 ssTEM images of 256 x 256 pixels and tested on 64 different ssTEM images of the same size, from the same serial stack. Due to high class imbalance, we used a class-balanced version of Bayesian SegNet by re-weighting each class based on their relative frequency. We achieved an overall accuracy of 93% and a mean class accuracy of 88% for pixel-wise segmentation using this encoder-decoder approach. On evaluating the segmentation results using similarity metrics like SSIM and Dice Coefficient, we obtained scores of 0.994 and 0.886 respectively. Additionally, we used the network trained using the 256 ssTEM images of Drosophila third instar larva for multi-class labeling of ISBI 2012 challenge ssTEM dataset.

ALMA-SZ Detection of a Galaxy Cluster Merger Shock at Half the Age of the Universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, K.; Sommer, M.; Erler, J.; Eckert, D.; Vazza, F.; Magnelli, B.; Bertoldi, F.; Tozzi, P.

2016-10-01

We present ALMA measurements of a merger shock using the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (SZ) effect signal, at the location of a radio relic in the famous El Gordo galaxy cluster at z≈ 0.9. Multi-wavelength analysis in combination with the archival Chandra data and a high-resolution radio image provides a consistent picture of the thermal and non-thermal signal variation across the shock front and helps to put robust constraints on the shock Mach number as well as the relic magnetic field. We employ a Bayesian analysis technique for modeling the SZ and X-ray data self-consistently, illustrating respective parameter degeneracies. Combined results indicate a shock with Mach number { M }={2.4}-0.6+1.3, which in turn suggests a high value of the magnetic field (of the order of 4-10 μ {{G}}) to account for the observed relic width at 2 GHz. At roughly half the current age of the universe, this is the highest-redshift direct detection of a cluster shock to date, and one of the first instances of an ALMA-SZ observation in a galaxy cluster. It shows the tremendous potential for future ALMA-SZ observations to detect merger shocks and other cluster substructures out to the highest redshifts.

Bayesian Regression with Network Prior: Optimal Bayesian Filtering Perspective

PubMed Central

Qian, Xiaoning; Dougherty, Edward R.

2017-01-01

The recently introduced intrinsically Bayesian robust filter (IBRF) provides fully optimal filtering relative to a prior distribution over an uncertainty class ofjoint random process models, whereas formerly the theory was limited to model-constrained Bayesian robust filters, for which optimization was limited to the filters that are optimal for models in the uncertainty class. This paper extends the IBRF theory to the situation where there are both a prior on the uncertainty class and sample data. The result is optimal Bayesian filtering (OBF), where optimality is relative to the posterior distribution derived from the prior and the data. The IBRF theories for effective characteristics and canonical expansions extend to the OBF setting. A salient focus of the present work is to demonstrate the advantages of Bayesian regression within the OBF setting over the classical Bayesian approach in the context otlinear Gaussian models. PMID:28824268

Determining Protein Complex Structures Based on a Bayesian Model of in Vivo Förster Resonance Energy Transfer (FRET) Data*

PubMed Central

Bonomi, Massimiliano; Pellarin, Riccardo; Kim, Seung Joong; Russel, Daniel; Sundin, Bryan A.; Riffle, Michael; Jaschob, Daniel; Ramsden, Richard; Davis, Trisha N.; Muller, Eric G. D.; Sali, Andrej

2014-01-01

The use of in vivo Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) data to determine the molecular architecture of a protein complex in living cells is challenging due to data sparseness, sample heterogeneity, signal contributions from multiple donors and acceptors, unequal fluorophore brightness, photobleaching, flexibility of the linker connecting the fluorophore to the tagged protein, and spectral cross-talk. We addressed these challenges by using a Bayesian approach that produces the posterior probability of a model, given the input data. The posterior probability is defined as a function of the dependence of our FRET metric FRETR on a structure (forward model), a model of noise in the data, as well as prior information about the structure, relative populations of distinct states in the sample, forward model parameters, and data noise. The forward model was validated against kinetic Monte Carlo simulations and in vivo experimental data collected on nine systems of known structure. In addition, our Bayesian approach was validated by a benchmark of 16 protein complexes of known structure. Given the structures of each subunit of the complexes, models were computed from synthetic FRETR data with a distance root-mean-squared deviation error of 14 to 17 Å. The approach is implemented in the open-source Integrative Modeling Platform, allowing us to determine macromolecular structures through a combination of in vivo FRETR data and data from other sources, such as electron microscopy and chemical cross-linking. PMID:25139910

Modeling Diagnostic Assessments with Bayesian Networks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Almond, Russell G.; DiBello, Louis V.; Moulder, Brad; Zapata-Rivera, Juan-Diego

2007-01-01

This paper defines Bayesian network models and examines their applications to IRT-based cognitive diagnostic modeling. These models are especially suited to building inference engines designed to be synchronous with the finer grained student models that arise in skills diagnostic assessment. Aspects of the theory and use of Bayesian network models…

Comparing spatially varying coefficient models: a case study examining violent crime rates and their relationships to alcohol outlets and illegal drug arrests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheeler, David C.; Waller, Lance A.

2009-03-01

In this paper, we compare and contrast a Bayesian spatially varying coefficient process (SVCP) model with a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model for the estimation of the potentially spatially varying regression effects of alcohol outlets and illegal drug activity on violent crime in Houston, Texas. In addition, we focus on the inherent coefficient shrinkage properties of the Bayesian SVCP model as a way to address increased coefficient variance that follows from collinearity in GWR models. We outline the advantages of the Bayesian model in terms of reducing inflated coefficient variance, enhanced model flexibility, and more formal measuring of model uncertainty for prediction. We find spatially varying effects for alcohol outlets and drug violations, but the amount of variation depends on the type of model used. For the Bayesian model, this variation is controllable through the amount of prior influence placed on the variance of the coefficients. For example, the spatial pattern of coefficients is similar for the GWR and Bayesian models when a relatively large prior variance is used in the Bayesian model.

Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics

PubMed Central

Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

2015-01-01

A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. PMID:22364575

Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics.

PubMed

Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

2013-02-01

A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

Estimation of gross land-use change and its uncertainty using a Bayesian data assimilation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, Peter; van Oijen, Marcel; Buys, Gwen; Tomlinson, Sam

2018-03-01

We present a method for estimating land-use change using a Bayesian data assimilation approach. The approach provides a general framework for combining multiple disparate data sources with a simple model. This allows us to constrain estimates of gross land-use change with reliable national-scale census data, whilst retaining the detailed information available from several other sources. Eight different data sources, with three different data structures, were combined in our posterior estimate of land use and land-use change, and other data sources could easily be added in future. The tendency for observations to underestimate gross land-use change is accounted for by allowing for a skewed distribution in the likelihood function. The data structure produced has high temporal and spatial resolution, and is appropriate for dynamic process-based modelling. Uncertainty is propagated appropriately into the output, so we have a full posterior distribution of output and parameters. The data are available in the widely used netCDF file format from http://eidc.ceh.ac.uk/.

Capturing changes in flood risk with Bayesian approaches for flood damage assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, Kristin; Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Thieken, Annegret; Müller, Meike; Sieg, Tobias; Laudan, Jonas; Kienzler, Sarah; Weise, Laura; Merz, Bruno; Scherbaum, Frank

2016-04-01

Flood risk is a function of hazard as well as of exposure and vulnerability. All three components are under change over space and time and have to be considered for reliable damage estimations and risk analyses, since this is the basis for an efficient, adaptable risk management. Hitherto, models for estimating flood damage are comparatively simple and cannot sufficiently account for changing conditions. The Bayesian network approach allows for a multivariate modeling of complex systems without relying on expert knowledge about physical constraints. In a Bayesian network each model component is considered to be a random variable. The way of interactions between those variables can be learned from observations or be defined by expert knowledge. Even a combination of both is possible. Moreover, the probabilistic framework captures uncertainties related to the prediction and provides a probability distribution for the damage instead of a point estimate. The graphical representation of Bayesian networks helps to study the change of probabilities for changing circumstances and may thus simplify the communication between scientists and public authorities. In the framework of the DFG-Research Training Group "NatRiskChange" we aim to develop Bayesian networks for flood damage and vulnerability assessments of residential buildings and companies under changing conditions. A Bayesian network learned from data, collected over the last 15 years in flooded regions in the Elbe and Danube catchments (Germany), reveals the impact of many variables like building characteristics, precaution and warning situation on flood damage to residential buildings. While the handling of incomplete and hybrid (discrete mixed with continuous) data are the most challenging issues in the study on residential buildings, a similar study, that focuses on the vulnerability of small to medium sized companies, bears new challenges. Relying on a much smaller data set for the determination of the model parameters, overly complex models should be avoided. A so called Markov Blanket approach aims at the identification of the most relevant factors and constructs a Bayesian network based on those findings. With our approach we want to exploit a major advantage of Bayesian networks which is their ability to consider dependencies not only pairwise, but to capture the joint effects and interactions of driving forces. Hence, the flood damage network does not only show the impact of precaution on the building damage separately, but also reveals the mutual effects of precaution and the quality of warning for a variety of flood settings. Thus, it allows for a consideration of changing conditions and different courses of action and forms a novel and valuable tool for decision support. This study is funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) within the research training program GRK 2043/1 "NatRiskChange - Natural hazards and risks in a changing world" at the University of Potsdam.

The multi temporal/multi-model approach to predictive uncertainty assessment in real-time flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbetta, Silvia; Coccia, Gabriele; Moramarco, Tommaso; Brocca, Luca; Todini, Ezio

2017-08-01

This work extends the multi-temporal approach of the Model Conditional Processor (MCP-MT) to the multi-model case and to the four Truncated Normal Distributions (TNDs) approach, demonstrating the improvement on the single-temporal one. The study is framed in the context of probabilistic Bayesian decision-making that is appropriate to take rational decisions on uncertain future outcomes. As opposed to the direct use of deterministic forecasts, the probabilistic forecast identifies a predictive probability density function that represents a fundamental knowledge on future occurrences. The added value of MCP-MT is the identification of the probability that a critical situation will happen within the forecast lead-time and when, more likely, it will occur. MCP-MT is thoroughly tested for both single-model and multi-model configurations at a gauged site on the Tiber River, central Italy. The stages forecasted by two operative deterministic models, STAFOM-RCM and MISDc, are considered for the study. The dataset used for the analysis consists of hourly data from 34 flood events selected on a time series of six years. MCP-MT improves over the original models' forecasts: the peak overestimation and the rising limb delayed forecast, characterizing MISDc and STAFOM-RCM respectively, are significantly mitigated, with a reduced mean error on peak stage from 45 to 5 cm and an increased coefficient of persistence from 0.53 up to 0.75. The results show that MCP-MT outperforms the single-temporal approach and is potentially useful for supporting decision-making because the exceedance probability of hydrometric thresholds within a forecast horizon and the most probable flooding time can be estimated.

Single and multiple object tracking using log-euclidean Riemannian subspace and block-division appearance model.

PubMed

Hu, Weiming; Li, Xi; Luo, Wenhan; Zhang, Xiaoqin; Maybank, Stephen; Zhang, Zhongfei

2012-12-01

Object appearance modeling is crucial for tracking objects, especially in videos captured by nonstationary cameras and for reasoning about occlusions between multiple moving objects. Based on the log-euclidean Riemannian metric on symmetric positive definite matrices, we propose an incremental log-euclidean Riemannian subspace learning algorithm in which covariance matrices of image features are mapped into a vector space with the log-euclidean Riemannian metric. Based on the subspace learning algorithm, we develop a log-euclidean block-division appearance model which captures both the global and local spatial layout information about object appearances. Single object tracking and multi-object tracking with occlusion reasoning are then achieved by particle filtering-based Bayesian state inference. During tracking, incremental updating of the log-euclidean block-division appearance model captures changes in object appearance. For multi-object tracking, the appearance models of the objects can be updated even in the presence of occlusions. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed tracking algorithm obtains more accurate results than six state-of-the-art tracking algorithms.

Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syafrina, A. H.; Zalina, M. D.; Juneng, L.

2014-09-01

A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF). New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081-2100). The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10-40 years.

Assessing State Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: Using Bayesian Network Analysis of Social Factors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coles, Garill A.; Brothers, Alan J.; Olson, Jarrod

A Bayesian network (BN) model of social factors can support proliferation assessments by estimating the likelihood that a state will pursue a nuclear weapon. Social factors including political, economic, nuclear capability, security, and national identity and psychology factors may play as important a role in whether a State pursues nuclear weapons as more physical factors. This paper will show how using Bayesian reasoning on a generic case of a would-be proliferator State can be used to combine evidence that supports proliferation assessment. Theories and analysis by political scientists can be leveraged in a quantitative and transparent way to indicate proliferationmore » risk. BN models facilitate diagnosis and inference in a probabilistic environment by using a network of nodes and acyclic directed arcs between the nodes whose connections, or absence of, indicate probabilistic relevance, or independence. We propose a BN model that would use information from both traditional safeguards and the strengthened safeguards associated with the Additional Protocol to indicate countries with a high risk of proliferating nuclear weapons. This model could be used in a variety of applications such a prioritization tool and as a component of state safeguards evaluations. This paper will discuss the benefits of BN reasoning, the development of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) BN state proliferation model and how it could be employed as an analytical tool.« less

Uncertainty quantification for nuclear density functional theory and information content of new measurements.

PubMed

McDonnell, J D; Schunck, N; Higdon, D; Sarich, J; Wild, S M; Nazarewicz, W

2015-03-27

Statistical tools of uncertainty quantification can be used to assess the information content of measured observables with respect to present-day theoretical models, to estimate model errors and thereby improve predictive capability, to extrapolate beyond the regions reached by experiment, and to provide meaningful input to applications and planned measurements. To showcase new opportunities offered by such tools, we make a rigorous analysis of theoretical statistical uncertainties in nuclear density functional theory using Bayesian inference methods. By considering the recent mass measurements from the Canadian Penning Trap at Argonne National Laboratory, we demonstrate how the Bayesian analysis and a direct least-squares optimization, combined with high-performance computing, can be used to assess the information content of the new data with respect to a model based on the Skyrme energy density functional approach. Employing the posterior probability distribution computed with a Gaussian process emulator, we apply the Bayesian framework to propagate theoretical statistical uncertainties in predictions of nuclear masses, two-neutron dripline, and fission barriers. Overall, we find that the new mass measurements do not impose a constraint that is strong enough to lead to significant changes in the model parameters. The example discussed in this study sets the stage for quantifying and maximizing the impact of new measurements with respect to current modeling and guiding future experimental efforts, thus enhancing the experiment-theory cycle in the scientific method.

A multi-model assessment of terrestrial biosphere model data needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardella, A.; Cowdery, E.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Desai, A. R.; Duveneck, M.; Fer, I.; Fisher, R.; Knox, R. G.; Kooper, R.; LeBauer, D.; McCabe, T.; Minunno, F.; Raiho, A.; Serbin, S.; Shiklomanov, A. N.; Thomas, A.; Walker, A.; Dietze, M.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial biosphere models provide us with the means to simulate the impacts of climate change and their uncertainties. Going beyond direct observation and experimentation, models synthesize our current understanding of ecosystem processes and can give us insight on data needed to constrain model parameters. In previous work, we leveraged the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) to assess the contribution of different parameters to the uncertainty of the Ecosystem Demography model v2 (ED) model outputs across various North American biomes (Dietze et al., JGR-G, 2014). While this analysis identified key research priorities, the extent to which these priorities were model- and/or biome-specific was unclear. Furthermore, because the analysis only studied one model, we were unable to comment on the effect of variability in model structure to overall predictive uncertainty. Here, we expand this analysis to all biomes globally and a wide sample of models that vary in complexity: BioCro, CABLE, CLM, DALEC, ED2, FATES, G'DAY, JULES, LANDIS, LINKAGES, LPJ-GUESS, MAESPA, PRELES, SDGVM, SIPNET, and TEM. Prior to performing uncertainty analyses, model parameter uncertainties were assessed by assimilating all available trait data from the combination of the BETYdb and TRY trait databases, using an updated multivariate version of PEcAn's Hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis. Next, sensitivity analyses were performed for all models across a range of sites globally to assess sensitivities for a range of different outputs (GPP, ET, SH, Ra, NPP, Rh, NEE, LAI) at multiple time scales from the sub-annual to the decadal. Finally, parameter uncertainties and model sensitivities were combined to evaluate the fractional contribution of each parameter to the predictive uncertainty for a specific variable at a specific site and timescale. Facilitated by PEcAn's automated workflows, this analysis represents the broadest assessment of the sensitivities and uncertainties in terrestrial models to date, and provides a comprehensive roadmap for constraining model uncertainties through model development and data collection.

Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Franz, Kristie J.; Moran, Edward H.; Dey, Rima; Mader, Helmut; Kraml, Julia

2012-01-01

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding its effects on ecosystems requires multi-scale models. For understanding effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate predicted by coarse-resolution Global Climate Models must be downscaled to Regional Climate Models to watersheds to river hydrology to population response. An additional challenge is quantifying sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and community level processes. We present a modeling approach for understanding and accomodating uncertainty by applying multi-scale climate models and a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to Midwest fish population dynamics and by linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. The proposed hierarchical modeling approach will account for sources of uncertainty in forecasts of community or population response. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. This understanding will aid evaluation of management options for coping with global climate change. In our initial analyses, we found that predicted pallid sturgeon population responses were dependent on the climate scenario considered.

Bayesian inference based on dual generalized order statistics from the exponentiated Weibull model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Sobhi, Mashail M.

2015-02-01

Bayesian estimation for the two parameters and the reliability function of the exponentiated Weibull model are obtained based on dual generalized order statistics (DGOS). Also, Bayesian prediction bounds for future DGOS from exponentiated Weibull model are obtained. The symmetric and asymmetric loss functions are considered for Bayesian computations. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used for computing the Bayes estimates and prediction bounds. The results have been specialized to the lower record values. Comparisons are made between Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimators via Monte Carlo simulation.

Fundamentals and Recent Developments in Approximate Bayesian Computation

PubMed Central

Lintusaari, Jarno; Gutmann, Michael U.; Dutta, Ritabrata; Kaski, Samuel; Corander, Jukka

2017-01-01

Abstract Bayesian inference plays an important role in phylogenetics, evolutionary biology, and in many other branches of science. It provides a principled framework for dealing with uncertainty and quantifying how it changes in the light of new evidence. For many complex models and inference problems, however, only approximate quantitative answers are obtainable. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) refers to a family of algorithms for approximate inference that makes a minimal set of assumptions by only requiring that sampling from a model is possible. We explain here the fundamentals of ABC, review the classical algorithms, and highlight recent developments. [ABC; approximate Bayesian computation; Bayesian inference; likelihood-free inference; phylogenetics; simulator-based models; stochastic simulation models; tree-based models.] PMID:28175922

Bayesian calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models: A study of advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Dan; Ricciuto, Daniel; Walker, Anthony

Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models is important but challenging. Bayesian inference implemented by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling provides a comprehensive framework to estimate model parameters and associated uncertainties using their posterior distributions. The effectiveness and efficiency of the method strongly depend on the MCMC algorithm used. In this study, a Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm was used to estimate posterior distributions of 21 parameters for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model using 14 years of daily net ecosystem exchange data collected at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site eddy-flux tower. The DREAM is a multi-chainmore » method and uses differential evolution technique for chain movement, allowing it to be efficiently applied to high-dimensional problems, and can reliably estimate heavy-tailed and multimodal distributions that are difficult for single-chain schemes using a Gaussian proposal distribution. The results were evaluated against the popular Adaptive Metropolis (AM) scheme. DREAM indicated that two parameters controlling autumn phenology have multiple modes in their posterior distributions while AM only identified one mode. The calibration of DREAM resulted in a better model fit and predictive performance compared to the AM. DREAM provides means for a good exploration of the posterior distributions of model parameters. Lastly, it reduces the risk of false convergence to a local optimum and potentially improves the predictive performance of the calibrated model.« less