bayesian option pricing: Topics by Science.gov

Sample records for bayesian option pricing

Pricing and hedging derivative securities with neural networks: Bayesian regularization, early stopping, and bagging.

PubMed

Gençay, R; Qi, M

2001-01-01

We study the effectiveness of cross validation, Bayesian regularization, early stopping, and bagging to mitigate overfitting and improving generalization for pricing and hedging derivative securities with daily S&P 500 index daily call options from January 1988 to December 1993. Our results indicate that Bayesian regularization can generate significantly smaller pricing and delta-hedging errors than the baseline neural-network (NN) model and the Black-Scholes model for some years. While early stopping does not affect the pricing errors, it significantly reduces the hedging error (HE) in four of the six years we investigated. Although computationally most demanding, bagging seems to provide the most accurate pricing and delta hedging. Furthermore, the standard deviation of the MSPE of bagging is far less than that of the baseline model in all six years, and the standard deviation of the average HE of bagging is far less than that of the baseline model in five out of six years. We conclude that they be used at least in cases when no appropriate hints are available.
Non-arbitrage in financial markets: A Bayesian approach for verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerezetti, F. V.; Stern, Julio Michael

2012-10-01

The concept of non-arbitrage plays an essential role in finance theory. Under certain regularity conditions, the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing states that, in non-arbitrage markets, prices of financial instruments are martingale processes. In this theoretical framework, the analysis of the statistical distributions of financial assets can assist in understanding how participants behave in the markets, and may or may not engender arbitrage conditions. Assuming an underlying Variance Gamma statistical model, this study aims to test, using the FBST - Full Bayesian Significance Test, if there is a relevant price difference between essentially the same financial asset traded at two distinct locations. Specifically, we investigate and compare the behavior of call options on the BOVESPA Index traded at (a) the Equities Segment and (b) the Derivatives Segment of BM&FBovespa. Our results seem to point out significant statistical differences. To what extent this evidence is actually the expression of perennial arbitrage opportunities is still an open question.
A study of finite mixture model: Bayesian approach on financial time series data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

2014-07-01

Recently, statistician have emphasized on the fitting finite mixture model by using Bayesian method. Finite mixture model is a mixture of distributions in modeling a statistical distribution meanwhile Bayesian method is a statistical method that use to fit the mixture model. Bayesian method is being used widely because it has asymptotic properties which provide remarkable result. In addition, Bayesian method also shows consistency characteristic which means the parameter estimates are close to the predictive distributions. In the present paper, the number of components for mixture model is studied by using Bayesian Information Criterion. Identify the number of component is important because it may lead to an invalid result. Later, the Bayesian method is utilized to fit the k-component mixture model in order to explore the relationship between rubber price and stock market price for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia. Lastly, the results showed that there is a negative effect among rubber price and stock market price for all selected countries.
A regularization approach to continuous learning with an application to financial derivatives pricing.

PubMed

Ormoneit, D

1999-12-01

We consider the training of neural networks in cases where the nonlinear relationship of interest gradually changes over time. One possibility to deal with this problem is by regularization where a variation penalty is added to the usual mean squared error criterion. To learn the regularized network weights we suggest the Iterative Extended Kalman Filter (IEKF) as a learning rule, which may be derived from a Bayesian perspective on the regularization problem. A primary application of our algorithm is in financial derivatives pricing, where neural networks may be used to model the dependency of the derivatives' price on one or several underlying assets. After giving a brief introduction to the problem of derivatives pricing we present experiments with German stock index options data showing that a regularized neural network trained with the IEKF outperforms several benchmark models and alternative learning procedures. In particular, the performance may be greatly improved using a newly designed neural network architecture that accounts for no-arbitrage pricing restrictions.
A Bayesian Multi-Level Factor Analytic Model of Consumer Price Sensitivities across Categories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duvvuri, Sri Devi; Gruca, Thomas S.

2010-01-01

Identifying price sensitive consumers is an important problem in marketing. We develop a Bayesian multi-level factor analytic model of the covariation among household-level price sensitivities across product categories that are substitutes. Based on a multivariate probit model of category incidence, this framework also allows the researcher to…
The European style arithmetic Asian option pricing with stochastic interest rate based on Black Scholes model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winarti, Yuyun Guna; Noviyanti, Lienda; Setyanto, Gatot R.

2017-03-01

The stock investment is a high risk investment. Therefore, there are derivative securities to reduce these risks. One of them is Asian option. The most fundamental of option is option pricing. Many factors that determine the option price are underlying asset price, strike price, maturity date, volatility, risk free interest rate and dividends. Various option pricing usually assume that risk free interest rate is constant. While in reality, this factor is stochastic process. The arithmetic Asian option is free from distribution, then, its pricing is done using the modified Black-Scholes model. In this research, the modification use the Curran approximation. This research focuses on the arithmetic Asian option pricing without dividends. The data used is the stock daily closing data of Telkom from January 1 2016 to June 30 2016. Finnaly, those option price can be used as an option trading strategy.
Pricing foreign equity option with stochastic volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Qi; Xu, Weidong

2015-11-01

In this paper we propose a general foreign equity option pricing framework that unifies the vast foreign equity option pricing literature and incorporates the stochastic volatility into foreign equity option pricing. Under our framework, the time-changed Lévy processes are used to model the underlying assets price of foreign equity option and the closed form pricing formula is obtained through the use of characteristic function methodology. Numerical tests indicate that stochastic volatility has a dramatic effect on the foreign equity option prices.
Option price and market instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao

2017-04-01

An option pricing formula, for which the price of an option depends on both the value of the underlying security as well as the velocity of the security, has been proposed in Baaquie and Yang (2014). The FX (foreign exchange) options price was empirically studied in Baaquie et al., (2014), and it was found that the model in general provides an excellent fit for all strike prices with a fixed model parameters-unlike the Black-Scholes option price Hull and White (1987) that requires the empirically determined implied volatility surface to fit the option data. The option price proposed in Baaquie and Cao Yang (2014) did not fit the data during the crisis of 2007-2008. We make a hypothesis that the failure of the option price to fit data is an indication of the market's large deviation from its near equilibrium behavior due to the market's instability. Furthermore, our indicator of market's instability is shown to be more accurate than the option's observed volatility. The market prices of the FX option for various currencies are studied in the light of our hypothesis.
Option pricing: Stock price, stock velocity and the acceleration Lagrangian

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Du, Xin; Bhanap, Jitendra

2014-12-01

The industry standard Black-Scholes option pricing formula is based on the current value of the underlying security and other fixed parameters of the model. The Black-Scholes formula, with a fixed volatility, cannot match the market's option price; instead, it has come to be used as a formula for generating the option price, once the so called implied volatility of the option is provided as additional input. The implied volatility not only is an entire surface, depending on the strike price and maturity of the option, but also depends on calendar time, changing from day to day. The point of view adopted in this paper is that the instantaneous rate of return of the security carries part of the information that is provided by implied volatility, and with a few (time-independent) parameters required for a complete pricing formula. An option pricing formula is developed that is based on knowing the value of both the current price and rate of return of the underlying security which in physics is called velocity. Using an acceleration Lagrangian model based on the formalism of quantum mathematics, we derive the pricing formula for European call options. The implied volatility of the market can be generated by our pricing formula. Our option price is applied to foreign exchange rates and equities and the accuracy is compared with Black-Scholes pricing formula and with the market price.
Valuing options in shot noise market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laskin, Nick

2018-07-01

A new exactly solvable option pricing model has been introduced and elaborated. It is assumed that a stock price follows a Geometric shot noise process. An arbitrage-free integro-differential option pricing equation has been obtained and solved. The new Greeks have been analytically calculated. It has been shown that in diffusion approximation the developed option pricing model incorporates the well-known Black-Scholes equation and its solution. The stochastic dynamic origin of the Black-Scholes volatility has been uncovered. To model the observed market stock price patterns consisting of high frequency small magnitude and low frequency large magnitude jumps, the superposition of two Geometric shot noises has been implemented. A new generalized option pricing equation has been obtained and its exact solution was found. Merton's jump-diffusion formula for option price was recovered in diffusion approximation. Despite the non-Gaussian nature of probability distributions involved, the new option pricing model has the same degree of analytical tractability as the Black-Scholes model and the Merton jump-diffusion model. This attractive feature allows one to derive exact formulas to value options and option related instruments in the market with jump-like price patterns.
An accurate European option pricing model under Fractional Stable Process based on Feynman Path Integral

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Chao; Ma, Qinghua; Yao, Haixiang; Hou, Tiancheng

2018-03-01

In this paper, we propose to use the Fractional Stable Process (FSP) for option pricing. The FSP is one of the few candidates to directly model a number of desired empirical properties of asset price risk neutral dynamics. However, pricing the vanilla European option under FSP is difficult and problematic. In the paper, built upon the developed Feynman Path Integral inspired techniques, we present a novel computational model for option pricing, i.e. the Fractional Stable Process Path Integral (FSPPI) model under a general fractional stable distribution that tackles this problem. Numerical and empirical experiments show that the proposed pricing model provides a correction of the Black-Scholes pricing error - overpricing long term options, underpricing short term options; overpricing out-of-the-money options, underpricing in-the-money options without any additional structures such as stochastic volatility and a jump process.
The pricing of European options on two underlying assets with delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Lisha; Li, Yaqiong; Wu, Jing

2018-04-01

In the paper, the pricing of European options on two underlying assets with delays is discussed. By using the approach of equivalent martingale measure transformation, the market is proved to be complete. With exchange option as a particular example, we obtain the explicit pricing formula in a subinterval of option period. The robust Euler-Maruyama method is combined with the Monte Carlo simulation to compute exchange option prices within the whole option period. Numerical experiments indicate that there is an increasing possibility of the difference between the delayed and Black-Scholes option prices with the increase of delay.
Pricing of American style options with an adjoint process correction method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaekel, Uwe

2005-07-01

Pricing of American options is a more complicated problem than pricing of European options. In this work a formula is derived that allows the computation of the early exercise premium, i.e. the price difference between these two option types in terms of an adjoint process evolving in the reversed time direction of the original process determining the evolution of the European price. We show how this equation can be utilised to improve option price estimates from numerical schemes like finite difference or Monte Carlo methods.
Implementation of power barrier option valuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahyani, Agatha C. P.; Sumarti, Novriana

2015-09-01

Options are financial instruments that can be utilized to reduce risk in stock investment. Barrier options are one of the major types of options actively used in financial markets where its life period depends on the path of the underlying stock prices. The features of the barrier option can be used to modify other types of options. In this research, the barrier option will be implemented into power option, so it is called power barrier option. This option is an extension of the vanilla barrier options where the Call payoff being considered is defined as P C =max (STβ-Kβ,0 ) , and the Put payoff being considered is defined as P P =max (Kβ-STβ,0 ) . Here β > 0 and β ≠ 1, K is the strike price of the option, and ST is the price of the underlying stock at time maturity T. In this paper, we generate the prices of stock using binomial method which is adjusted to the power option. In the conclusion, the price of American power barrier option is more expensive than the price of European power barrier option.
A new perspective on Quantum Finance using the Black-Scholes pricing model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieng, Lamine

2007-03-01

Options are known to be divided into two types, the first type is called a call option and the second type is called a put option and these options are offered to stock holders in order to hedge their positions against risky fluctuations of the stock price. It is important to mention that due to fluctuations of the stock price, options can be found sometimes deep in the money, at the money and out of the money. A deep in the money option is described when the option's holder has a positive expected payoff, at the money option is when the option's holder has a zero expected payoff and an out of the money option is when the payoff is negative. In this work, we will assume the stock price to be described by the well known Black-Scholes model or sometimes called the multiplicative model. Using Ito calculus, Martingale and supermartingale theories, we investigated the Black-Scholes pricing equation at the money (X(stock price)= K (strike price)) when the expected payoff of the options holder is zero. We also hedged the Black-Scholes pricing equation in the limit when delta is zero to obtain the non-relativistic time independent Schroedinger equation in quantum mechanics. We compared the two equations and found the diffusion constant to be a function of the stock price in contrast to the Bachelier model we have worked on earlier. We solved the Schroedinger equation and found a dependence between interest rate, volatility and strike price at the money.
48 CFR 52.222-43 - Fair Labor Standards Act and Service Contract Act-Price Adjustment (Multiple Year and Option...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... and Service Contract Act-Price Adjustment (Multiple Year and Option Contracts). 52.222-43 Section 52... Standards Act and Service Contract Act—Price Adjustment (Multiple Year and Option Contracts). As prescribed...—Price Adjustment (Multiple Year and Option Contracts) (SEP 2009) (a) This clause applies to both...
Slice sampling technique in Bayesian extreme of gold price modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rostami, Mohammad; Adam, Mohd Bakri; Ibrahim, Noor Akma; Yahya, Mohamed Hisham

2013-09-01

In this paper, a simulation study of Bayesian extreme values by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo via slice sampling algorithm is implemented. We compared the accuracy of slice sampling with other methods for a Gumbel model. This study revealed that slice sampling algorithm offers more accurate and closer estimates with less RMSE than other methods . Finally we successfully employed this procedure to estimate the parameters of Malaysia extreme gold price from 2000 to 2011.
Systems Modelling of the Socio-Technical Aspects of Residential Electricity Use and Network Peak Demand.

PubMed

Lewis, Jim; Mengersen, Kerrie; Buys, Laurie; Vine, Desley; Bell, John; Morris, Peter; Ledwich, Gerard

2015-01-01

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers' peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers' location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price, managed supply, etc., in a conceptual 'map' of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tickbox interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.
Systems Modelling of the Socio-Technical Aspects of Residential Electricity Use and Network Peak Demand

PubMed Central

Lewis, Jim; Mengersen, Kerrie; Buys, Laurie; Vine, Desley; Bell, John; Morris, Peter; Ledwich, Gerard

2015-01-01

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price, managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tickbox interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments. PMID:26226511
48 CFR 552.217-70 - Evaluation of Options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Evaluation of Options. 552... Evaluation of Options. As prescribed in 517.208(a), insert the following provision: Evaluation of Options... period price. When option year pricing is based on a formula (e.g., changes in the Producer Price Index...

77 FR 76572 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-28

... Substance of the Proposed Rule Change NASDAQ proposes to modify Chapter XV, entitled ``Options Pricing,'' governing pricing for NASDAQ members using the NASDAQ Options Market (``NOM''), NASDAQ's facility for... modify Chapter XV, entitled ``Options Pricing,'' at Section 3 entitled ``NASDAQ Options Market--Access...
A homotopy analysis method for the option pricing PDE in illiquid markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

E-Khatib, Youssef

2012-09-01

One of the shortcomings of the Black and Scholes model on option pricing is the assumption that trading the underlying asset does not affect the underlying asset price. This can happen in perfectly liquid markets and it is evidently not viable in markets with imperfect liquidity (illiquid markets). It is well-known that markets with imperfect liquidity are more realistic. Thus, the presence of price impact while studying options is very important. This paper investigates a solution for the option pricing PDE in illiquid markets using the homotopy analysis method.
Stock price dynamics and option valuations under volatility feedback effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanniainen, Juho; Piché, Robert

2013-02-01

According to the volatility feedback effect, an unexpected increase in squared volatility leads to an immediate decline in the price-dividend ratio. In this paper, we consider the properties of stock price dynamics and option valuations under the volatility feedback effect by modeling the joint dynamics of stock price, dividends, and volatility in continuous time. Most importantly, our model predicts the negative effect of an increase in squared return volatility on the value of deep-in-the-money call options and, furthermore, attempts to explain the volatility puzzle. We theoretically demonstrate a mechanism by which the market price of diffusion return risk, or an equity risk-premium, affects option prices and empirically illustrate how to identify that mechanism using forward-looking information on option contracts. Our theoretical and empirical results support the relevance of the volatility feedback effect. Overall, the results indicate that the prevailing practice of ignoring the time-varying dividend yield in option pricing can lead to oversimplification of the stock market dynamics.
Pricing geometric Asian rainbow options under fractional Brownian motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lu; Zhang, Rong; Yang, Lin; Su, Yang; Ma, Feng

2018-03-01

In this paper, we explore the pricing of the assets of Asian rainbow options under the condition that the assets have self-similar and long-range dependence characteristics. Based on the principle of no arbitrage, stochastic differential equation, and partial differential equation, we obtain the pricing formula for two-asset rainbow options under fractional Brownian motion. Next, our Monte Carlo simulation experiments show that the derived pricing formula is accurate and effective. Finally, our sensitivity analysis of the influence of important parameters, such as the risk-free rate, Hurst exponent, and correlation coefficient, on the prices of Asian rainbow options further illustrate the rationality of our pricing model.
Path integral approach to closed-form option pricing formulas with applications to stochastic volatility and interest rate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemmens, D.; Wouters, M.; Tempere, J.; Foulon, S.

2008-07-01

We present a path integral method to derive closed-form solutions for option prices in a stochastic volatility model. The method is explained in detail for the pricing of a plain vanilla option. The flexibility of our approach is demonstrated by extending the realm of closed-form option price formulas to the case where both the volatility and interest rates are stochastic. This flexibility is promising for the treatment of exotic options. Our analytical formulas are tested with numerical Monte Carlo simulations.
78 FR 17738 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-22

... customer bases of potential product users have indicated a preference that premium pricing for Mini Options... market participants clarity as to the minimum pricing increments for Mini Options, the filing would harmonize penny pricing between Mini Options and standard options on the same security. \\4\\ See Securities...
78 FR 17970 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Miami International Securities Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-25

... product users and they have indicated a preference that premium pricing for mini-options match what is... market participants clarity as to the minimum pricing increments for mini-options, the filing would harmonize penny pricing between mini-options and standard options on the same security. \\3\\ See Securities...
26 CFR 1.6039-1 - Returns required in connection with certain options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... the person; (v) The exercise price per share; (vi) The date the option was exercised by the person...) The actual exercise price paid per share; (vi) The exercise price per share determined as if the... exercise price per share is not fixed or determinable on the date the option was granted); (vii) The date...
26 CFR 1.6039-1 - Returns required in connection with certain options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

...) The exercise price per share; (vi) The date the option was exercised by the person; (vii) The fair...) The actual exercise price paid per share; (vi) The exercise price per share determined as if the... exercise price per share is not fixed or determinable on the date the option was granted); (vii) The date...
Time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion and option pricing with transaction costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Hui; Liang, Jin-Rong; Zhang, Yun-Xiu

2012-08-01

This paper deals with the problem of discrete time option pricing by a fractional subdiffusive Black-Scholes model. The price of the underlying stock follows a time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion. By a mean self-financing delta-hedging argument, the pricing formula for the European call option in discrete time setting is obtained.
Scaling and long-range dependence in option pricing V: Multiscaling hedging and implied volatility smiles under the fractional Black-Scholes model with transaction costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiao-Tian

2011-05-01

This paper deals with the problem of discrete time option pricing using the fractional Black-Scholes model with transaction costs. Through the ‘anchoring and adjustment’ argument in a discrete time setting, a European call option pricing formula is obtained. The minimal price of an option under transaction costs is obtained. In addition, the relation between scaling and implied volatility smiles is discussed.
77 FR 65241 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-25

... pursuant to the same strike price interval parameters that exist for Weekly options. Thus a related non... non-Weekly options and the availability of more granular strike price intervals. The Exchange notes... harmonization between of strike prices between Weekly and non-Weekly options on the same classes. With regard to...
Study protocol: combining experimental methods, econometrics and simulation modelling to determine price elasticities for studying food taxes and subsidies (The Price ExaM Study).

PubMed

Waterlander, Wilma E; Blakely, Tony; Nghiem, Nhung; Cleghorn, Christine L; Eyles, Helen; Genc, Murat; Wilson, Nick; Jiang, Yannan; Swinburn, Boyd; Jacobi, Liana; Michie, Jo; Ni Mhurchu, Cliona

2016-07-19

There is a need for accurate and precise food price elasticities (PE, change in consumer demand in response to change in price) to better inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. The Price Experiment and Modelling (Price ExaM) study aims to: I) derive accurate and precise food PE values; II) quantify the impact of price changes on quantity and quality of discrete food group purchases and; III) model the potential health and disease impacts of a range of food taxes and subsidies. To achieve this, we will use a novel method that includes a randomised Virtual Supermarket experiment and econometric methods. Findings will be applied in simulation models to estimate population health impact (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) using a multi-state life-table model. The study will consist of four sequential steps: 1. We generate 5000 price sets with random price variation for all 1412 Virtual Supermarket food and beverage products. Then we add systematic price variation for foods to simulate five taxes and subsidies: a fruit and vegetable subsidy and taxes on sugar, saturated fat, salt, and sugar-sweetened beverages. 2. Using an experimental design, 1000 adult New Zealand shoppers complete five household grocery shops in the Virtual Supermarket where they are randomly assigned to one of the 5000 price sets each time. 3. Output data (i.e., multiple observations of price configurations and purchased amounts) are used as inputs to econometric models (using Bayesian methods) to estimate accurate PE values. 4. A disease simulation model will be run with the new PE values as inputs to estimate QALYs gained and health costs saved for the five policy interventions. The Price ExaM study has the potential to enhance public health and economic disciplines by introducing internationally novel scientific methods to estimate accurate and precise food PE values. These values will be used to model the potential health and disease impacts of various food pricing policy options. Findings will inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12616000122459 (registered 3 February 2016).
The mean time-limited crash rate of stock price

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yun-Xian; Li, Jiang-Cheng; Yang, Ai-Jun; Tang, Nian-Sheng

2017-05-01

In this article we investigate the occurrence of stock market crash in an economy cycle. Bayesian approach, Heston model and statistical-physical method are considered. Specifically, Heston model and an effective potential are employed to address the dynamic changes of stock price. Bayesian approach has been utilized to estimate the Heston model's unknown parameters. Statistical physical method is used to investigate the occurrence of stock market crash by calculating the mean time-limited crash rate. The real financial data from the Shanghai Composite Index is analyzed with the proposed methods. The mean time-limited crash rate of stock price is used to describe the occurrence of stock market crash in an economy cycle. The monotonous and nonmonotonous behaviors are observed in the behavior of the mean time-limited crash rate versus volatility of stock for various cross correlation coefficient between volatility and price. Also a minimum occurrence of stock market crash matching an optimal volatility is discovered.
A discontinuous Galerkin method for numerical pricing of European options under Heston stochastic volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hozman, J.; Tichý, T.

2016-12-01

The paper is based on the results from our recent research on multidimensional option pricing problems. We focus on European option valuation when the price movement of the underlying asset is driven by a stochastic volatility following a square root process proposed by Heston. The stochastic approach incorporates a new additional spatial variable into this model and makes it very robust, i.e. it provides a framework to price a variety of options that is closer to reality. The main topic is to present the numerical scheme arising from the concept of discontinuous Galerkin methods and applicable to the Heston option pricing model. The numerical results are presented on artificial benchmarks as well as on reference market data.
75 FR 6750 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The Options Clearing Corporation; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-10

... Change Relating to Options for Which the Premium and Exercise Price Are Expressed as a Multiple of the... Rules to accommodate options for which the premium and exercise price are expressed on other than a per... (definition of ``Aggregate Exercise Price'') and OCC Rule 805(d)(2) to accommodate options for which the...
48 CFR 1552.217-77 - Option to extend the term of the contract fixed price.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Option to extend the term... Provisions and Clauses 1552.217-77 Option to extend the term of the contract fixed price. As prescribed in 1517.208(g), insert the following clause: Option To Extend the Term of the Contract Fixed Price (OCT...
A Kramers-Moyal approach to the analysis of third-order noise with applications in option valuation.

PubMed

Popescu, Dan M; Lipan, Ovidiu

2015-01-01

We propose the use of the Kramers-Moyal expansion in the analysis of third-order noise. In particular, we show how the approach can be applied in the theoretical study of option valuation. Despite Pawula's theorem, which states that a truncated model may exhibit poor statistical properties, we show that for a third-order Kramers-Moyal truncation model of an option's and its underlier's price, important properties emerge: (i) the option price can be written in a closed analytical form that involves the Airy function, (ii) the price is a positive function for positive skewness in the distribution, (iii) for negative skewness, the price becomes negative only for price values that are close to zero. Moreover, using third-order noise in option valuation reveals additional properties: (iv) the inconsistencies between two popular option pricing approaches (using a "delta-hedged" portfolio and using an option replicating portfolio) that are otherwise equivalent up to the second moment, (v) the ability to develop a measure R of how accurately an option can be replicated by a mixture of the underlying stocks and cash, (vi) further limitations of second-order models revealed by introducing third-order noise.
Pricing European option with transaction costs under the fractional long memory stochastic volatility model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiao-Tian; Wu, Min; Zhou, Ze-Min; Jing, Wei-Shu

2012-02-01

This paper deals with the problem of discrete time option pricing using the fractional long memory stochastic volatility model with transaction costs. Through the 'anchoring and adjustment' argument in a discrete time setting, a European call option pricing formula is obtained.
Valuing natural gas power generation assets in the new competitive marketplace

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Michael Chun-Wei

1999-10-01

The profitability of natural gas fired power plants depends critically on the spread between electricity and natural gas prices. The price levels of these two energy commodities are the key uncertain variables in determining the operating margin and therefore the value of a power plant. The owner of a generation unit has the decision of dispatching the plant only when profit margins are positive. This operating flexibility is a real option with real value. In this dissertation I introduce the spark spread call options and illustrate how such paper contracts replicate the uncertain payoff space facing power asset owners and, therefore, how the financial options framework can be applied in estimating the value of natural gas generation plants. The intrinsic value of gas power plants is approximated as the sum of a series of spark spread call options with succeeding maturity dates. The Black-Scholes spread option pricing model, with volatility and correlation term structure adjustments, is utilized to price the spark spread options. Sensitivity analysis is also performed on the BS spread option formulation to compare different asset types. In addition I explore the potential of using compound and compound-exchange option concepts to evaluate, respectively, the benefits of delaying investment in new generation and in repowering existing antiquated units. The compound option designates an option on top of another option. In this case the series of spark spread call options is the 'underlying' option while the option to delay new investments is the 'overlying.' The compound-exchange option characterizes the opportunity to 'exchange' the old power plant, with its series of spark spread call options, for a set of new spark spread call options that comes with the new generation unit. The strike price of the compound-exchange option is the repowering capital investment and typically includes the purchase of new steam generators and combustion turbines, as well as other facility upgrades. The pricing results using the proposed repowering option approach is compared to the sale prices from recent power plant auctions. Sensitivity of the repowering option model is also examined and the critical parameters al parameters identified.

Numerical pricing of options using high-order compact finite difference schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tangman, D. Y.; Gopaul, A.; Bhuruth, M.

2008-09-01

We consider high-order compact (HOC) schemes for quasilinear parabolic partial differential equations to discretise the Black-Scholes PDE for the numerical pricing of European and American options. We show that for the heat equation with smooth initial conditions, the HOC schemes attain clear fourth-order convergence but fail if non-smooth payoff conditions are used. To restore the fourth-order convergence, we use a grid stretching that concentrates grid nodes at the strike price for European options. For an American option, an efficient procedure is also described to compute the option price, Greeks and the optimal exercise curve. Comparisons with a fourth-order non-compact scheme are also done. However, fourth-order convergence is not experienced with this strategy. To improve the convergence rate for American options, we discuss the use of a front-fixing transformation with the HOC scheme. We also show that the HOC scheme with grid stretching along the asset price dimension gives accurate numerical solutions for European options under stochastic volatility.
Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

2009-01-01

Foreword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.
Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing - 2nd Edition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

2003-12-01

Foreword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.
78 FR 11916 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-20

... of the Proposed Rule Change The Exchange proposes to amend the Exchange's Pricing Schedule at Section...\\ Pricing'' of the Pricing Schedule. \\3\\ Multiply Listed Options Fees include options overlying equities... and add certain rule text in the Pricing Schedule to provide additional clarity to the Pricing...
Option pricing: a flexible tool to disseminate shared savings contracts.

PubMed

Friedberg, Mark W; Buendia, Anthony M; Lauderdale, Katherine E; Hussey, Peter S

2013-08-01

Due to volatility in healthcare costs, shared savings contracts can create systematic financial losses for payers, especially when contracting with smaller providers. To improve the business case for shared savings, we calculated the prices of financial options that payers can "sell" to providers to offset these losses. Using 2009 to 2010 member-level total cost of care data from a large commercial health plan, we calculated option prices by applying a bootstrap simulation procedure. We repeated these simulations for providers of sizes ranging from 500 to 60,000 patients and for shared savings contracts with and without key design features (minimum savings thresholds,bonus caps, cost outlier truncation, and downside risk) and under assumptions of zero, 1%, and 2% real cost reductions due to the shared savings contracts. Assuming no real cost reduction and a 50% shared savings rate, per patient option prices ranged from $225 (3.1% of overall costs) for 500-patient providers to $23 (0.3%) for 60,000-patient providers. Introducing minimum savings thresholds, bonus caps, cost outlier truncation, and downside risk reduced these option prices. Option prices were highly sensitive to the magnitude of real cost reductions. If shared savings contracts cause 2% reductions in total costs, option prices fall to zero for all but the smallest providers. Calculating the prices of financial options that protect payers and providers from downside risk can inject flexibility into shared savings contracts, extend such contracts to smaller providers, and clarify the tradeoffs between different contract designs, potentially speeding the dissemination of shared savings.
A Kramers-Moyal Approach to the Analysis of Third-Order Noise with Applications in Option Valuation

PubMed Central

Popescu, Dan M.; Lipan, Ovidiu

2015-01-01

We propose the use of the Kramers-Moyal expansion in the analysis of third-order noise. In particular, we show how the approach can be applied in the theoretical study of option valuation. Despite Pawula’s theorem, which states that a truncated model may exhibit poor statistical properties, we show that for a third-order Kramers-Moyal truncation model of an option’s and its underlier’s price, important properties emerge: (i) the option price can be written in a closed analytical form that involves the Airy function, (ii) the price is a positive function for positive skewness in the distribution, (iii) for negative skewness, the price becomes negative only for price values that are close to zero. Moreover, using third-order noise in option valuation reveals additional properties: (iv) the inconsistencies between two popular option pricing approaches (using a “delta-hedged” portfolio and using an option replicating portfolio) that are otherwise equivalent up to the second moment, (v) the ability to develop a measure R of how accurately an option can be replicated by a mixture of the underlying stocks and cash, (vi) further limitations of second-order models revealed by introducing third-order noise. PMID:25625856
78 FR 17985 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-25

... with customer bases of potential product users have indicated a preference that premium pricing for... options on the same security. In addition to giving market participants clarity as to the minimum pricing increments for Mini Options, the filing would harmonize penny pricing between Mini Options and standard...
European option pricing under the Student's t noise with jumps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiao-Tian; Li, Zhe; Zhuang, Le

2017-03-01

In this paper we present a new approach to price European options under the Student's t noise with jumps. Through the conditional delta hedging strategy and the minimal mean-square-error hedging, a closed-form solution of the European option value is obtained under the incomplete information case. In particular, we propose a Value-at-Risk-type procedure to estimate the volatility parameter σ such that the pricing error is in accord with the risk preferences of investors. In addition, the numerical results of us show that options are not priced in some cases in an incomplete information market.
Model risk for European-style stock index options.

PubMed

Gençay, Ramazan; Gibson, Rajna

2007-01-01

In empirical modeling, there have been two strands for pricing in the options literature, namely the parametric and nonparametric models. Often, the support for the nonparametric methods is based on a benchmark such as the Black-Scholes (BS) model with constant volatility. In this paper, we study the stochastic volatility (SV) and stochastic volatility random jump (SVJ) models as parametric benchmarks against feedforward neural network (FNN) models, a class of neural network models. Our choice for FNN models is due to their well-studied universal approximation properties of an unknown function and its partial derivatives. Since the partial derivatives of an option pricing formula are risk pricing tools, an accurate estimation of the unknown option pricing function is essential for pricing and hedging. Our findings indicate that FNN models offer themselves as robust option pricing tools, over their sophisticated parametric counterparts in predictive settings. There are two routes to explain the superiority of FNN models over the parametric models in forecast settings. These are nonnormality of return distributions and adaptive learning.
A Path Integral Approach to Option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility: Some Exact Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.

1997-12-01

The Black-Scholes formula for pricing options on stocks and other securities has been generalized by Merton and Garman to the case when stock volatility is stochastic. The derivation of the price of a security derivative with stochastic volatility is reviewed starting from the first principles of finance. The equation of Merton and Garman is then recast using the path integration technique of theoretical physics. The price of the stock option is shown to be the analogue of the Schrödinger wavefunction of quantum mechanics and the exact Hamiltonian and Lagrangian of the system is obtained. The results of Hull and White are generalized to the case when stock price and volatility have non-zero correlation. Some exact results for pricing stock options for the general correlated case are derived.
77 FR 33543 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-06

... Term Option Series Program (``STOS Program'') to permit, during the expiration week of an option class... rule to open for trading Short Term Option Series at $0.50 strike price intervals for option classes... Short Term Option Series at $0.50 strike price intervals for option classes that trade in one dollar...
77 FR 56243 - Options Price Reporting Authority; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-12

... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Release No. 34-67791; File No. SR-OPRA-2012-05] Options Price Reporting Authority; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Amendment to the Plan for...'') \\1\\ and Rule 608 thereunder,\\2\\ notice is hereby given that on August 27, 2012, the Options Price...
75 FR 27608 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-17

... Change To Establish Strike Price Intervals and Trading Hours for Options on Index Linked Securities May....4 Commentary .05 to establish strike price intervals for options on Index Linked Securities,\\3\\ and... Rule 7.1 Commentary .02 to establish strike price intervals and trading hours for options on Index...
78 FR 13105 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX BX, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-26

... Relating to a Pricing Clarification February 19, 2013. Pursuant to Section 19(b)(1) of the Securities... Exchange proposes to add references to certain terms in Chapter XV, entitled ``Options Pricing.'' The... Options Market Maker pricing in all securities, the Participant must be registered as a BX Options Market...
A hybrid modeling approach for option pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajizadeh, Ehsan; Seifi, Abbas

2011-11-01

The complexity of option pricing has led many researchers to develop sophisticated models for such purposes. The commonly used Black-Scholes model suffers from a number of limitations. One of these limitations is the assumption that the underlying probability distribution is lognormal and this is so controversial. We propose a couple of hybrid models to reduce these limitations and enhance the ability of option pricing. The key input to option pricing model is volatility. In this paper, we use three popular GARCH type model for estimating volatility. Then, we develop two non-parametric models based on neural networks and neuro-fuzzy networks to price call options for S&P 500 index. We compare the results with those of Black-Scholes model and show that both neural network and neuro-fuzzy network models outperform Black-Scholes model. Furthermore, comparing the neural network and neuro-fuzzy approaches, we observe that for at-the-money options, neural network model performs better and for both in-the-money and an out-of-the money option, neuro-fuzzy model provides better results.
76 FR 74105 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc.; Notice of Filing...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-30

... call options.\\10\\ Like options, the price of rights and warrants are affected by the price of the... of rights and warrants may move more dramatically than the price of the underlying stock, even when.... Given the fact that the price of rights and warrants may move more dramatically than the prices of the...
Transportation pricing and finance options for California.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-06-01

The objective of this research project was to conduct research on the merits, costs and application potential of various transportation pricing approaches, to better inform decision makers and the public about transportation financing/pricing option ...
Interest rates in quantum finance: Caps, swaptions and bond options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.

2010-01-01

The prices of the main interest rate options in the financial markets, derived from the Libor (London Interbank Overnight Rate), are studied in the quantum finance model of interest rates. The option prices show new features for the Libor Market Model arising from the fact that, in the quantum finance formulation, all the different Libor payments are coupled and (imperfectly) correlated. Black’s caplet formula for quantum finance is given an exact path integral derivation. The coupon and zero coupon bond options as well as the Libor European and Asian swaptions are derived in the framework of quantum finance. The approximate Libor option prices are derived using the volatility expansion. The BGM-Jamshidian (Gatarek et al. (1996) [1], Jamshidian (1997) [2]) result for the Libor swaption prices is obtained as the limiting case when all the Libors are exactly correlated. A path integral derivation is given of the approximate BGM-Jamshidian approximate price.
Oscillatory Reduction in Option Pricing Formula Using Shifted Poisson and Linear Approximation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nur Rachmawati, Ro'fah; Irene; Budiharto, Widodo

2014-03-01

Option is one of derivative instruments that can help investors improve their expected return and minimize the risks. However, the Black-Scholes formula is generally used in determining the price of the option does not involve skewness factor and it is difficult to apply in computing process because it produces oscillation for the skewness values close to zero. In this paper, we construct option pricing formula that involve skewness by modified Black-Scholes formula using Shifted Poisson model and transformed it into the form of a Linear Approximation in the complete market to reduce the oscillation. The results are Linear Approximation formula can predict the price of an option with very accurate and successfully reduce the oscillations in the calculation processes.
78 FR 28912 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-16

... Proposed Rule Change Relating to Penny Pilot Options and Non-Penny Pilot Options May 10, 2013. Pursuant to... ``Options Pricing,'' at Section 2 governing pricing for NASDAQ members using the NASDAQ Options Market (``NOM''), NASDAQ's facility for executing and routing standardized equity and index options...

Variable step random walks, self-similar distributions, and pricing of options (Invited Paper)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunaratne, Gemunu H.; McCauley, Joseph L.

2005-05-01

A new theory for pricing of options is presented. It is based on the assumption that successive movements depend on the value of the return. The solution to the Fokker-Planck equation is shown to be an asymmetric exponential distribution, similar to those observed in intra-day currency markets. The "volatility smile", used by traders to correct the Black-Scholes pricing is shown to be a heuristic mechanism to implement options pricing formulae derived from our theory.
Artificial neural network model of the hybrid EGARCH volatility of the Taiwan stock index option prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tseng, Chih-Hsiung; Cheng, Sheng-Tzong; Wang, Yi-Hsien; Peng, Jin-Tang

2008-05-01

This investigation integrates a novel hybrid asymmetric volatility approach into an Artificial Neural Networks option-pricing model to upgrade the forecasting ability of the price of derivative securities. The use of the new hybrid asymmetric volatility method can simultaneously decrease the stochastic and nonlinearity of the error term sequence, and capture the asymmetric volatility. Therefore, analytical results of the ANNS option-pricing model reveal that Grey-EGARCH volatility provides greater predictability than other volatility approaches.
Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ning, Yumei

Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes in prices and volatility to be correlated. The results show that the value of a power plant is much higher using the financial option model than using traditional discounted cash flow.
Stochastic arbitrage return and its implication for option pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedotov, Sergei; Panayides, Stephanos

2005-01-01

The purpose of this work is to explore the role that random arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a stationary ergodic random process rapidly varying in time. We exploit the fact that option price and random arbitrage returns change on different time scales which allows us to develop an asymptotic pricing theory involving the central limit theorem for random processes. We restrict ourselves to finding pricing bands for options rather than exact prices. The resulting pricing bands are shown to be independent of the detailed statistical characteristics of the arbitrage return. We find that the volatility “smile” can also be explained in terms of random arbitrage opportunities.
American option pricing in Gauss-Markov interest rate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galluccio, Stefano

1999-07-01

In the context of Gaussian non-homogeneous interest-rate models, we study the problem of American bond option pricing. In particular, we show how to efficiently compute the exercise boundary in these models in order to decompose the price as a sum of a European option and an American premium. Generalizations to coupon-bearing bonds and jump-diffusion processes for the interest rates are also discussed.
Quantifying risks with exact analytical solutions of derivative pricing distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kun; Liu, Jing; Wang, Erkang; Wang, Jin

2017-04-01

Derivative (i.e. option) pricing is essential for modern financial instrumentations. Despite of the previous efforts, the exact analytical forms of the derivative pricing distributions are still challenging to obtain. In this study, we established a quantitative framework using path integrals to obtain the exact analytical solutions of the statistical distribution for bond and bond option pricing for the Vasicek model. We discuss the importance of statistical fluctuations away from the expected option pricing characterized by the distribution tail and their associations to value at risk (VaR). The framework established here is general and can be applied to other financial derivatives for quantifying the underlying statistical distributions.
Age Differences in Consumer Decision Making under Option Framing: From the Motivation Perspective

PubMed Central

Peng, Huamao; Xia, Shiyong; Ruan, Fanglin; Pu, Bingyan

2016-01-01

Option framing effect is the phenomena that participants often accept more options when they are asked to delete undesired options from a full model (subtractive framing) than they do when they are instructed to add desired options to a base model (additive framing). Whether the same effect exists in different age groups is less well known. To explore the roles of age and purchase motivations on the option framing effect for automobiles purchases, this study adopted a 3 (age group: younger, middle-aged, vs. older) × 2 (option framing: additive vs. subtractive) × 2 (focus condition: information vs. emotion) mixed design. To manipulate purchase motivations, participants in the three age groups were instructed to focus on the ratio of utility and price of options (information-focus) or the extent of pleasure induced by the options (emotion-focus) when they made purchase decisions in two framing conditions. The results revealed similar option framing effect across all age groups in the information-focus condition regarding the total price paid for accepted options. In contrast, the framing effect was not found in the emotion-focus condition. In addition, older adults accepted more options and an overall higher price than younger and middle-aged adults in both focus conditions. This difference was more obvious in the emotion-focus condition than in the information-focus condition. Moreover, both the number of accepted options and the total accepted price of the younger group in the information-focus condition were higher than those in the emotion-focus condition, whereas the older and middle-aged groups accepted same number of options and price between two focus conditions. These results imply that purchase motivation is a moderator of the option framing effect and age characteristics linked with motivations must be considered in sales. PMID:27872603
Age Differences in Consumer Decision Making under Option Framing: From the Motivation Perspective.

PubMed

Peng, Huamao; Xia, Shiyong; Ruan, Fanglin; Pu, Bingyan

2016-01-01

Option framing effect is the phenomena that participants often accept more options when they are asked to delete undesired options from a full model (subtractive framing) than they do when they are instructed to add desired options to a base model (additive framing). Whether the same effect exists in different age groups is less well known. To explore the roles of age and purchase motivations on the option framing effect for automobiles purchases, this study adopted a 3 (age group: younger, middle-aged, vs. older) × 2 (option framing: additive vs. subtractive) × 2 (focus condition: information vs. emotion) mixed design. To manipulate purchase motivations, participants in the three age groups were instructed to focus on the ratio of utility and price of options (information-focus) or the extent of pleasure induced by the options (emotion-focus) when they made purchase decisions in two framing conditions. The results revealed similar option framing effect across all age groups in the information-focus condition regarding the total price paid for accepted options. In contrast, the framing effect was not found in the emotion-focus condition. In addition, older adults accepted more options and an overall higher price than younger and middle-aged adults in both focus conditions. This difference was more obvious in the emotion-focus condition than in the information-focus condition. Moreover, both the number of accepted options and the total accepted price of the younger group in the information-focus condition were higher than those in the emotion-focus condition, whereas the older and middle-aged groups accepted same number of options and price between two focus conditions. These results imply that purchase motivation is a moderator of the option framing effect and age characteristics linked with motivations must be considered in sales.
A Non-Gaussian Stock Price Model: Options, Credit and a Multi-Timescale Memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borland, L.

We review a recently proposed model of stock prices, based on astatistical feedback model that results in a non-Gaussian distribution of price changes. Applications to option pricing and the pricing of debt is discussed. A generalization to account for feedback effects over multiple timescales is also presented. This model reproduces most of the stylized facts (ie statistical anomalies) observed in real financial markets.
76 FR 74113 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-30

... options. Rights and warrants entitle owners to purchase shares of stock at predetermined prices subject to various timing and other conditions. Like options, the price of rights and warrants are affected by the... consequence, the prices of rights and warrants may move more dramatically than the prices of the underlying...
77 FR 74037 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-12

... the Pricing Schedule.\\4\\ The Exchange is also proposing a technical amendment to its Pricing Schedule. While changes to the Pricing Schedule pursuant to this proposal are effective upon filing, the Exchange... Listed Option becomes Multiply Listed, the option would be assessed the fees in Section II of the Pricing...
Analytical pricing of geometric Asian power options on an underlying driven by a mixed fractional Brownian motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei-Guo; Li, Zhe; Liu, Yong-Jun

2018-01-01

In this paper, we study the pricing problem of the continuously monitored fixed and floating strike geometric Asian power options in a mixed fractional Brownian motion environment. First, we derive both closed-form solutions and mixed fractional partial differential equations for fixed and floating strike geometric Asian power options based on delta-hedging strategy and partial differential equation method. Second, we present the lower and upper bounds of the prices of fixed and floating strike geometric Asian power options under the assumption that both risk-free interest rate and volatility are interval numbers. Finally, numerical studies are performed to illustrate the performance of our proposed pricing model.
Pricing Employee Stock Options (ESOs) with Random Lattice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chendra, E.; Chin, L.; Sukmana, A.

2018-04-01

Employee Stock Options (ESOs) are stock options granted by companies to their employees. Unlike standard options that can be traded by typical institutional or individual investors, employees cannot sell or transfer their ESOs to other investors. The sale restrictions may induce the ESO’s holder to exercise them earlier. In much cited paper, Hull and White propose a binomial lattice in valuing ESOs which assumes that employees will exercise voluntarily their ESOs if the stock price reaches a horizontal psychological barrier. Due to nonlinearity errors, the numerical pricing results oscillate significantly so they may lead to large pricing errors. In this paper, we use the random lattice method to price the Hull-White ESOs model. This method can reduce the nonlinearity error by aligning a layer of nodes of the random lattice with a psychological barrier.
Lookback Option Pricing with Fixed Proportional Transaction Costs under Fractional Brownian Motion.

PubMed

Sun, Jiao-Jiao; Zhou, Shengwu; Zhang, Yan; Han, Miao; Wang, Fei

2014-01-01

The pricing problem of lookback option with a fixed proportion of transaction costs is investigated when the underlying asset price follows a fractional Brownian motion process. Firstly, using Leland's hedging method a partial differential equation satisfied by the value of the lookback option is derived. Then we obtain its numerical solution by constructing a Crank-Nicolson format. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed form is verified through a numerical example. Meanwhile, the impact of transaction cost rate and volatility on lookback option value is discussed.
Lookback Option Pricing with Fixed Proportional Transaction Costs under Fractional Brownian Motion

PubMed Central

Sun, Jiao-Jiao; Zhou, Shengwu; Zhang, Yan; Han, Miao; Wang, Fei

2014-01-01

The pricing problem of lookback option with a fixed proportion of transaction costs is investigated when the underlying asset price follows a fractional Brownian motion process. Firstly, using Leland's hedging method a partial differential equation satisfied by the value of the lookback option is derived. Then we obtain its numerical solution by constructing a Crank-Nicolson format. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed form is verified through a numerical example. Meanwhile, the impact of transaction cost rate and volatility on lookback option value is discussed. PMID:27433525
26 CFR 1.422-5 - Permissible provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... reference to the fair market value of the stock at the time of exercise or to the option price. (d) Option... fair market value of the stock exceeds the exercise price of the option and the option is otherwise... disqualifying disposition of 75 shares is $1,500 (the difference between the fair market value of the stock on...
Feynman perturbation expansion for the price of coupon bond options and swaptions in quantum finance. I. Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.

2007-01-01

European options on coupon bonds are studied in a quantum field theory model of forward interest rates. Swaptions are briefly reviewed. An approximation scheme for the coupon bond option price is developed based on the fact that the volatility of the forward interest rates is a small quantity. The field theory for the forward interest rates is Gaussian, but when the payoff function for the coupon bond option is included it makes the field theory nonlocal and nonlinear. A perturbation expansion using Feynman diagrams gives a closed form approximation for the price of coupon bond option. A special case of the approximate bond option is shown to yield the industry standard one-factor HJM formula with exponential volatility.
Feynman perturbation expansion for the price of coupon bond options and swaptions in quantum finance. I. Theory.

PubMed

Baaquie, Belal E

2007-01-01

European options on coupon bonds are studied in a quantum field theory model of forward interest rates. Swaptions are briefly reviewed. An approximation scheme for the coupon bond option price is developed based on the fact that the volatility of the forward interest rates is a small quantity. The field theory for the forward interest rates is Gaussian, but when the payoff function for the coupon bond option is included it makes the field theory nonlocal and nonlinear. A perturbation expansion using Feynman diagrams gives a closed form approximation for the price of coupon bond option. A special case of the approximate bond option is shown to yield the industry standard one-factor HJM formula with exponential volatility.
A DG approach to the numerical solution of the Stein-Stein stochastic volatility option pricing model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hozman, J.; Tichý, T.

2017-12-01

Stochastic volatility models enable to capture the real world features of the options better than the classical Black-Scholes treatment. Here we focus on pricing of European-style options under the Stein-Stein stochastic volatility model when the option value depends on the time, on the price of the underlying asset and on the volatility as a function of a mean reverting Orstein-Uhlenbeck process. A standard mathematical approach to this model leads to the non-stationary second-order degenerate partial differential equation of two spatial variables completed by the system of boundary and terminal conditions. In order to improve the numerical valuation process for a such pricing equation, we propose a numerical technique based on the discontinuous Galerkin method and the Crank-Nicolson scheme. Finally, reference numerical experiments on real market data illustrate comprehensive empirical findings on options with stochastic volatility.
Using Priced Options to Solve the Exposure Problem in Sequential Auctions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mous, Lonneke; Robu, Valentin; La Poutré, Han

This paper studies the benefits of using priced options for solving the exposure problem that bidders with valuation synergies face when participating in multiple, sequential auctions. We consider a model in which complementary-valued items are auctioned sequentially by different sellers, who have the choice of either selling their good directly or through a priced option, after fixing its exercise price. We analyze this model from a decision-theoretic perspective and we show, for a setting where the competition is formed by local bidders, that using options can increase the expected profit for both buyers and sellers. Furthermore, we derive the equations that provide minimum and maximum bounds between which a synergy buyer's bids should fall in order for both sides to have an incentive to use the options mechanism. Next, we perform an experimental analysis of a market in which multiple synergy bidders are active simultaneously.

Pricing of swing options: A Monte Carlo simulation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leow, Kai-Siong

We study the problem of pricing swing options, a class of multiple early exercise options that are traded in energy market, particularly in the electricity and natural gas markets. These contracts permit the option holder to periodically exercise the right to trade a variable amount of energy with a counterparty, subject to local volumetric constraints. In addition, the total amount of energy traded from settlement to expiration with the counterparty is restricted by a global volumetric constraint. Violation of this global volumetric constraint is allowed but would lead to penalty settled at expiration. The pricing problem is formulated as a stochastic optimal control problem in discrete time and state space. We present a stochastic dynamic programming algorithm which is based on piecewise linear concave approximation of value functions. This algorithm yields the value of the swing option under the assumption that the optimal exercise policy is applied by the option holder. We present a proof of an almost sure convergence that the algorithm generates the optimal exercise strategy as the number of iterations approaches to infinity. Finally, we provide a numerical example for pricing a natural gas swing call option.
A parabolic variational inequality arising from the valuation of strike reset options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Zhou; Yi, Fahuai; Dai, Min

A strike reset option is an option that allows its holder to reset the strike price to the prevailing underlying asset price at a moment chosen by the holder. The pricing model of the option can be formulated as a one-dimensional parabolic variational inequality, or equivalently, a free boundary problem, where the free boundary just corresponds to the optimal reset strategy adopted by the holder of the option. This paper is concerned with the theoretical analysis of the model. The existence and uniqueness of the solution are established. Furthermore, we study properties of the free boundary. The monotonicity and C smoothness of the free boundary are proven in some situations.
Learning classification trees

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buntine, Wray

1991-01-01

Algorithms for learning classification trees have had successes in artificial intelligence and statistics over many years. How a tree learning algorithm can be derived from Bayesian decision theory is outlined. This introduces Bayesian techniques for splitting, smoothing, and tree averaging. The splitting rule turns out to be similar to Quinlan's information gain splitting rule, while smoothing and averaging replace pruning. Comparative experiments with reimplementations of a minimum encoding approach, Quinlan's C4 and Breiman et al. Cart show the full Bayesian algorithm is consistently as good, or more accurate than these other approaches though at a computational price.
76 FR 64984 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-19

... trading day's last sale price was greater than $100) in premium in each of the front two expiration months... options whose underlying stock's previous trading day's last sale price was greater than $100) in premium... other exchanges employing similar pricing schemes.\\18\\ \\18\\ The Boston Options Exchange currently...
75 FR 77925 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX BX, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

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2010-12-14

... Establish Strike Price Intervals and Trading Hours for Options on Index-Linked Securities December 8, 2010... Business) of the Rules of the Boston Options Exchange Group, LLC (``BOX'') to establish strike price... proposing to establish strike price intervals and trading hours for these products. The Securities and...
75 FR 21689 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX, Inc.; Order Granting Accelerated Approval of...

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2010-04-26

... To Establish Strike Price Intervals and Trading Hours for Options on Index-Linked Securities April 20... establish strike-price intervals for options on Index-Linked Securities and to establish trading hours for... exchange-traded notes (``ETN'')), Phlx has proposed to establish strike price intervals and trading hours...
75 FR 80869 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-23

... promotional pricing period for options overlying the NASDAQ Internet Index (``QNET''). The text of the... pricing is to assess a fixed rate across all market participants for a specified period of time to... promotional pricing after December 30, 2010, and instead assesses members the applicable sector index options...
Spectral method for pricing options in illiquid markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pindza, Edson; Patidar, Kailash C.

2012-09-01

We present a robust numerical method to solve a problem of pricing options in illiquid markets. The governing equation is described by a nonlinear Black-Scholes partial differential equation (BS-PDE) of the reaction-diffusion-advection type. To discretise this BS-PDE numerically, we use a spectral method in the asset (spatial) direction and couple it with a fifth order RADAU method for the discretisation in the time direction. Numerical experiments illustrate that our approach is very efficient for pricing financial options in illiquid markets.
Hamiltonian and potentials in derivative pricing models: exact results and lattice simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Corianò, Claudio; Srikant, Marakani

2004-03-01

The pricing of options, warrants and other derivative securities is one of the great success of financial economics. These financial products can be modeled and simulated using quantum mechanical instruments based on a Hamiltonian formulation. We show here some applications of these methods for various potentials, which we have simulated via lattice Langevin and Monte Carlo algorithms, to the pricing of options. We focus on barrier or path dependent options, showing in some detail the computational strategies involved.
Feynman path integral application on deriving black-scholes diffusion equation for european option pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utama, Briandhika; Purqon, Acep

2016-08-01

Path Integral is a method to transform a function from its initial condition to final condition through multiplying its initial condition with the transition probability function, known as propagator. At the early development, several studies focused to apply this method for solving problems only in Quantum Mechanics. Nevertheless, Path Integral could also apply to other subjects with some modifications in the propagator function. In this study, we investigate the application of Path Integral method in financial derivatives, stock options. Black-Scholes Model (Nobel 1997) was a beginning anchor in Option Pricing study. Though this model did not successfully predict option price perfectly, especially because its sensitivity for the major changing on market, Black-Scholes Model still is a legitimate equation in pricing an option. The derivation of Black-Scholes has a high difficulty level because it is a stochastic partial differential equation. Black-Scholes equation has a similar principle with Path Integral, where in Black-Scholes the share's initial price is transformed to its final price. The Black-Scholes propagator function then derived by introducing a modified Lagrange based on Black-Scholes equation. Furthermore, we study the correlation between path integral analytical solution and Monte-Carlo numeric solution to find the similarity between this two methods.
As-built design specification for proportion estimate software subsystem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Obrien, S. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

The Proportion Estimate Processor evaluates four estimation techniques in order to get an improved estimate of the proportion of a scene that is planted in a selected crop. The four techniques to be evaluated were provided by the techniques development section and are: (1) random sampling; (2) proportional allocation, relative count estimate; (3) proportional allocation, Bayesian estimate; and (4) sequential Bayesian allocation. The user is given two options for computation of the estimated mean square error. These are referred to as the cluster calculation option and the segment calculation option. The software for the Proportion Estimate Processor is operational on the IBM 3031 computer.
A novel method to value real options in health care: the case of a multicohort human papillomavirus vaccination strategy.

PubMed

Favato, Giampiero; Baio, Gianluca; Capone, Alessandro; Marcellusi, Andrea; Saverio Mennini, Francesco

2013-07-01

A large number of economic evaluations have already confirmed the cost-effectiveness of different human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination strategies. Standard analyses might not capture the full economic value of novel vaccination programs because the cost-effectiveness paradigm fails to take into account the value of active management. Management decisions can be seen as real options, a term used to refer to the application of option pricing theory to the valuation of investments in nonfinancial assets in which much of the value is attributable to flexibility and learning over time. The aim of this article was to discuss the potential advantages shown by using the payoff method in the valuation of the cost-effectiveness of competing HPV immunization programs. This was the first study, to the best of our knowledge, to use the payoff method to determine the real option values of 4 different HPV vaccination strategies targeting female subjects aged 12, 15, 18, and 25 years. The payoff method derives the real option value from the triangular payoff distribution of the project's net present value, which is treated as a triangular fuzzy number. To inform the real option model, cost-effectiveness data were derived from an empirically calibrated Bayesian model designed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a multicohort HPV vaccination strategy in the context of the current cervical cancer screening program in Italy. A net health benefit approach was used to calculate the expected fuzzy net present value for each of the 4 vaccination strategies evaluated. Costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained seemed to be related to the number of cohorts targeted: a single cohort of girls aged 12 years (€10,955 [95% CI, -1,021 to 28,212]) revealed the lowest cost among the 4 alternative strategies evaluated. The real option valuation challenged the cost-effectiveness dominance of a single cohort of 12-year-old girls. The simultaneous vaccination of 2 cohorts of girls aged 12 and 15 years yielded a real option value (€17,723) equivalent to that attributed to a single cohort of 12-year-old girls (€17,460). The payoff method showed distinctive advantages in the valuation of the cost-effectiveness of competing health care interventions, essentially determined by the replacement of the nonfuzzy numbers that are commonly used in cost-effectiveness analysis models, with fuzzy numbers as an input to inform the real option pricing method. The real option approach to value uncertainty makes policy making in health care an evolutionary process and creates a new "space" for decision-making choices. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.
78 FR 25770 - Options Price Reporting Authority; Order Approving an Amendment to the Plan for Reporting of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-02

... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Release No. 34-69453; File No. SR-OPRA-2012-07] Options Price Reporting Authority; Order Approving an Amendment to the Plan for Reporting of Consolidated Options Last Sale Reports and Quotation Information To Amend Section 3.5 of the OPRA Plan April 25, 2013. I. Introduction On December 21, 2012, the Options...
A data-centric approach to understanding the pricing of financial options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Healy, J.; Dixon, M.; Read, B.; Cai, F. F.

2002-05-01

We investigate what can be learned from a purely phenomenological study of options prices without modelling assumptions. We fitted neural net (NN) models to LIFFE ``ESX'' European style FTSE 100 index options using daily data from 1992 to 1997. These non-parametric models reproduce the Black-Scholes (BS) analytic model in terms of fit and performance measures using just the usual five inputs (S, X, t, r, IV). We found that adding transaction costs (bid-ask spread) to these standard five parameters gives a comparable fit and performance. Tests show that the bid-ask spread can be a statistically significant explanatory variable for option prices. The difference in option prices between the models with transaction costs and those without ranges from about -3.0 to +1.5 index points, varying with maturity date. However, the difference depends on the moneyness (S/X), being greatest in-the-money. This suggests that use of a five-factor model can result in a pricing difference of up to #10 to #30 per call option contract compared with modelling under transaction costs. We found that the influence of transaction costs varied between different yearly subsets of the data. Open interest is also a significant explanatory variable, but volume is not.
Correlated continuous time random walk and option pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lv, Longjin; Xiao, Jianbin; Fan, Liangzhong; Ren, Fuyao

2016-04-01

In this paper, we study a correlated continuous time random walk (CCTRW) with averaged waiting time, whose probability density function (PDF) is proved to follow stretched Gaussian distribution. Then, we apply this process into option pricing problem. Supposing the price of the underlying is driven by this CCTRW, we find this model captures the subdiffusive characteristic of financial markets. By using the mean self-financing hedging strategy, we obtain the closed-form pricing formulas for a European option with and without transaction costs, respectively. At last, comparing the obtained model with the classical Black-Scholes model, we find the price obtained in this paper is higher than that obtained from the Black-Scholes model. A empirical analysis is also introduced to confirm the obtained results can fit the real data well.
75 FR 39720 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule...

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2010-07-12

..., Inc. To List Options on Trust Issued Receipts in $1 Strike Intervals July 6, 2010. Pursuant to Section... strike price intervals for options on Trust Issued Receipts. The text of the proposed rule change is... strike price intervals for options on Trust Issued Receipts (``TIRs''), including Holding Company...
77 FR 6160 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC; Order Granting Approval of Proposed Rule...

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2012-02-07

... SLV and USO strike price intervals. \\4\\ The Exchange also proposed certain non-substantive changes to... Strike Price Intervals for SLV and USO Options February 1, 2012. I. Introduction On December 7, 2011...-4 thereunder,\\2\\ a proposed rule change regarding strike price intervals for options on iShares[reg...
76 FR 2940 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC; Order Granting Approval of Proposed Rule...

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2011-01-18

... complex orders. \\4\\ Rule 1092 provides a framework for reviewing the price of a transaction to determine... the theoretical price for a series by a certain amount depending on the type of option. OEOs use one of three criteria when determining the theoretical price of an options execution, which are...
Pricing American Asian options with higher moments in the underlying distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, Keng-Hsin; Wang, Kehluh; Hsu, Ming-Feng

2009-01-01

We develop a modified Edgeworth binomial model with higher moment consideration for pricing American Asian options. With lognormal underlying distribution for benchmark comparison, our algorithm is as precise as that of Chalasani et al. [P. Chalasani, S. Jha, F. Egriboyun, A. Varikooty, A refined binomial lattice for pricing American Asian options, Rev. Derivatives Res. 3 (1) (1999) 85-105] if the number of the time steps increases. If the underlying distribution displays negative skewness and leptokurtosis as often observed for stock index returns, our estimates can work better than those in Chalasani et al. [P. Chalasani, S. Jha, F. Egriboyun, A. Varikooty, A refined binomial lattice for pricing American Asian options, Rev. Derivatives Res. 3 (1) (1999) 85-105] and are very similar to the benchmarks in Hull and White [J. Hull, A. White, Efficient procedures for valuing European and American path-dependent options, J. Derivatives 1 (Fall) (1993) 21-31]. The numerical analysis shows that our modified Edgeworth binomial model can value American Asian options with greater accuracy and speed given higher moments in their underlying distribution.
A real options approach to clinical faculty salary structure.

PubMed

Kahn, Marc J; Long, Hugh W

2012-01-01

One can use the option theory model originally developed to price financial opportunities in security markets to analyze many other economic arrangements such as the salary structures of clinical faculty in an academic medical center practice plan. If one views the underlying asset to be the portion (labeled "salary") of the economic value of the collections made for the care provided patients by the physician, then a salary guarantee can be considered a put option provided the physician, the guarantee having value to the physician only when the actual salary earned is less than the salary guarantee. Similarly, within an incentive plan, a salary cap can be thought of as a call option provided to the practice plan since a salary cap only has value to the practice plan when a physician's earnings exceed the cap. Further, based on analysis of prior earnings, the Black-Scholes options pricing model can be used both to price each option and to determine a financially neutral balance between a salary guarantee and a salary cap by equating the prices of the implied put and call options. We suggest that such analysis is superior to empirical methods for setting clinical faculty salary structure in the academic practice plan setting.

Policy options for pharmaceutical pricing and purchasing: issues for low- and middle-income countries.

PubMed

Nguyen, Tuan Anh; Knight, Rosemary; Roughead, Elizabeth Ellen; Brooks, Geoffrey; Mant, Andrea

2015-03-01

Pharmaceutical expenditure is rising globally. Most high-income countries have exercised pricing or purchasing strategies to address this pressure. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), however, usually have less regulated pharmaceutical markets and often lack feasible pricing or purchasing strategies, notwithstanding their wish to effectively manage medicine budgets. In high-income countries, most medicines payments are made by the state or health insurance institutions. In LMICs, most pharmaceutical expenditure is out-of-pocket which creates a different dynamic for policy enforcement. The paucity of rigorous studies on the effectiveness of pharmaceutical pricing and purchasing strategies makes it especially difficult for policy makers in LMICs to decide on a course of action. This article reviews published articles on pharmaceutical pricing and purchasing policies. Many policy options for medicine pricing and purchasing have been found to work but they also have attendant risks. No one option is decisively preferred; rather a mix of options may be required based on country-specific context. Empirical studies in LMICs are lacking. However, risks from any one policy option can reasonably be argued to be greater in LMICs which often lack strong legal systems, purchasing and state institutions to underpin the healthcare system. Key factors are identified to assist LMICs improve their medicine pricing and purchasing systems. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2014; all rights reserved.
Nonlinear Schrödinger approach to European option pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wróblewski, Marcin

2017-05-01

This paper deals with numerical option pricing methods based on a Schrödinger model rather than the Black-Scholes model. Nonlinear Schrödinger boundary value problems seem to be alternatives to linear models which better reflect the complexity and behavior of real markets. Therefore, based on the nonlinear Schrödinger option pricing model proposed in the literature, in this paper a model augmented by external atomic potentials is proposed and numerically tested. In terms of statistical physics the developed model describes the option in analogy to a pair of two identical quantum particles occupying the same state. The proposed model is used to price European call options on a stock index. the model is calibrated using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm based on market data. A Runge-Kutta method is used to solve the discretized boundary value problem numerically. Numerical results are provided and discussed. It seems that our proposal more accurately models phenomena observed in the real market than do linear models.
An ill-posed problem for the Black-Scholes equation for a profitable forecast of prices of stock options on real market data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klibanov, Michael V.; Kuzhuget, Andrey V.; Golubnichiy, Kirill V.

2016-01-01

A new empirical mathematical model for the Black-Scholes equation is proposed to forecast option prices. This model includes new interval for the price of the underlying stock, new initial and new boundary conditions. Conventional notions of maturity time and strike prices are not used. The Black-Scholes equation is solved as a parabolic equation with the reversed time, which is an ill-posed problem. Thus, a regularization method is used to solve it. To verify the validity of our model, real market data for 368 randomly selected liquid options are used. A new trading strategy is proposed. Our results indicates that our method is profitable on those options. Furthermore, it is shown that the performance of two simple extrapolation-based techniques is much worse. We conjecture that our method might lead to significant profits of those financial insitutions which trade large amounts of options. We caution, however, that further studies are necessary to verify this conjecture.
Feynman perturbation expansion for the price of coupon bond options and swaptions in quantum finance. II. Empirical

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Liang, Cui

2007-01-01

The quantum finance pricing formulas for coupon bond options and swaptions derived by Baaquie [Phys. Rev. E 75, 016703 (2006)] are reviewed. We empirically study the swaption market and propose an efficient computational procedure for analyzing the data. Empirical results of the swaption price, volatility, and swaption correlation are compared with the predictions of quantum finance. The quantum finance model generates the market swaption price to over 90% accuracy.
Feynman perturbation expansion for the price of coupon bond options and swaptions in quantum finance. II. Empirical.

PubMed

Baaquie, Belal E; Liang, Cui

2007-01-01

The quantum finance pricing formulas for coupon bond options and swaptions derived by Baaquie [Phys. Rev. E 75, 016703 (2006)] are reviewed. We empirically study the swaption market and propose an efficient computational procedure for analyzing the data. Empirical results of the swaption price, volatility, and swaption correlation are compared with the predictions of quantum finance. The quantum finance model generates the market swaption price to over 90% accuracy.
Multifactor valuation models of energy futures and options on futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertus, Mark J.

The intent of this dissertation is to investigate continuous time pricing models for commodity derivative contracts that consider mean reversion. The motivation for pricing commodity futures and option on futures contracts leads to improved practical risk management techniques in markets where uncertainty is increasing. In the dissertation closed-form solutions to mean reverting one-factor, two-factor, three-factor Brownian motions are developed for futures contracts. These solutions are obtained through risk neutral pricing methods that yield tractable expressions for futures prices, which are linear in the state variables, hence making them attractive for estimation. These functions, however, are expressed in terms of latent variables (i.e. spot prices, convenience yield) which complicate the estimation of the futures pricing equation. To address this complication a discussion on Dynamic factor analysis is given. This procedure documents latent variables using a Kalman filter and illustrations show how this technique may be used for the analysis. In addition, to the futures contracts closed form solutions for two option models are obtained. Solutions to the one- and two-factor models are tailored solutions of the Black-Scholes pricing model. Furthermore, since these contracts are written on the futures contracts, they too are influenced by the same underlying parameters of the state variables used to price the futures contracts. To conclude, the analysis finishes with an investigation of commodity futures options that incorporate random discrete jumps.
The Pricing of European Options Under the Constant Elasticity of Variance with Stochastic Volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bock, Bounghun; Choi, Sun-Yong; Kim, Jeong-Hoon

This paper considers a hybrid risky asset price model given by a constant elasticity of variance multiplied by a stochastic volatility factor. A multiscale analysis leads to an asymptotic pricing formula for both European vanilla option and a Barrier option near the zero elasticity of variance. The accuracy of the approximation is provided in a rigorous manner. A numerical experiment for implied volatilities shows that the hybrid model improves some of the well-known models in view of fitting the data for different maturities.
Path integral pricing of Wasabi option in the Black-Scholes model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassagnes, Aurelien; Chen, Yu; Ohashi, Hirotada

2014-11-01

In this paper, using path integral techniques, we derive a formula for a propagator arising in the study of occupation time derivatives. Using this result we derive a fair price for the case of the cumulative Parisian option. After confirming the validity of the derived result using Monte Carlo simulation, a new type of heavily path dependent derivative product is investigated. We derive an approximation for our so-called Wasabi option fair price and check the accuracy of our result with a Monte Carlo simulation.
75 FR 35871 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-23

... PHLX, Inc. To List Options on Trust Issued Receipts in $1 Strike Intervals June 15, 2010. Pursuant to... to list options on Trust Issued Receipts in $1 strike price intervals. The text of the proposed rule...)(iv) to Rule 1012, in $1 or greater strike price intervals, where the strike price is $200 or less and...
75 FR 76059 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BATS Exchange, Inc.; Notice of Filing of a Proposed Rule Change To...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-07

... BATS Options Book at its displayed price. The non- displayed price of the Market Maker Price Improving Order would not be entered into the BATS Options Book, but would be, along with its displayed size... book processing requirements of Rule 21.8 and, if applicable, processed in accordance with the order...
75 FR 78288 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing and...

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2010-12-15

....00 (for options whose underlying stock's previous trading day's last sale price was less than or... last sale price was greater than $100) in premium in each of the front two expiration months and 80% of... trading day's last sale price was less than or equal to $100) and between $0.10 and $5.00 (for options...
Bayesian inference for the distribution of grams of marijuana in a joint.

PubMed

Ridgeway, Greg; Kilmer, Beau

2016-08-01

The average amount of marijuana in a joint is unknown, yet this figure is a critical quantity for creating credible measures of marijuana consumption. It is essential for projecting tax revenues post-legalization, estimating the size of illicit marijuana markets, and learning about how much marijuana users are consuming in order to understand health and behavioral consequences. Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring data collected between 2000 and 2010 contain relevant information on 10,628 marijuana transactions, joints and loose marijuana purchases, including the city in which the purchase occurred and the price paid for the marijuana. Using the Brown-Silverman drug pricing model to link marijuana price and weight, we are able to infer the distribution of grams of marijuana in a joint and provide a Bayesian posterior distribution for the mean weight of marijuana in a joint. We estimate that the mean weight of marijuana in a joint is 0.32g (95% Bayesian posterior interval: 0.30-0.35). Our estimate of the mean weight of marijuana in a joint is lower than figures commonly used to make estimates of marijuana consumption. These estimates can be incorporated into drug policy discussions to produce better understanding about illicit marijuana markets, the size of potential legalized marijuana markets, and health and behavior outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Pricing timer options and variance derivatives with closed-form partial transform under the 3/2 model

PubMed Central

Zheng, Wendong; Zeng, Pingping

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Most of the empirical studies on stochastic volatility dynamics favour the 3/2 specification over the square-root (CIR) process in the Heston model. In the context of option pricing, the 3/2 stochastic volatility model (SVM) is reported to be able to capture the volatility skew evolution better than the Heston model. In this article, we make a thorough investigation on the analytic tractability of the 3/2 SVM by proposing a closed-form formula for the partial transform of the triple joint transition density which stand for the log asset price, the quadratic variation (continuous realized variance) and the instantaneous variance, respectively. Two distinct formulations are provided for deriving the main result. The closed-form partial transform enables us to deduce a variety of marginal partial transforms and characteristic functions and plays a crucial role in pricing discretely sampled variance derivatives and exotic options that depend on both the asset price and quadratic variation. Various applications and numerical examples on pricing moment swaps and timer options with discrete monitoring feature are given to demonstrate the versatility of the partial transform under the 3/2 model. PMID:28706460
77 FR 54635 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC; Order Granting Approval of Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-05

... Strike Price Intervals in the Short Term Options Program August 29, 2012. I. Introduction On July 2, 2012...-4 thereunder,\\2\\ a proposed rule change to indicate that the interval between strike prices on short term options series (``STOs'') listed in accordance with its Short Term Option Series Program (``STO...
77 FR 21130 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

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2012-04-09

... proposes to modify Chapter XV, Options Pricing, Section 2, of the Options Rules portion of the NASDAQ Rulebook governing pricing for NASDAQ members using The NASDAQ Options Market (``NOM''), NASDAQ's facility... certain Customer Routing Fees to recoup costs incurred by the Exchange in routing to away markets. While...
75 FR 40011 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule...

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2010-07-13

... LLC To List Options on Trust Issued Receipts in $1 Strike Intervals July 6, 2010. Pursuant to section... strike price intervals for options on Trust Issued Receipts. The text of the proposed rule change is... establish strike price intervals for options on Trust Issued Receipts (``TIRs''), including Holding Company...
75 FR 66402 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

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2010-10-28

... necessary systems capacity to handle the additional traffic associated with the expanded range of strike... Effectiveness of Proposed Rule Change To Expand the Range of Strike Price Intervals for VIX Options October 21... amend Rule 24.9.01(e), Terms of Index Option Contracts, to expand the range of strike price intervals...
A guide to Bayesian model selection for ecologists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooten, Mevin B.; Hobbs, N.T.

2015-01-01

The steady upward trend in the use of model selection and Bayesian methods in ecological research has made it clear that both approaches to inference are important for modern analysis of models and data. However, in teaching Bayesian methods and in working with our research colleagues, we have noticed a general dissatisfaction with the available literature on Bayesian model selection and multimodel inference. Students and researchers new to Bayesian methods quickly find that the published advice on model selection is often preferential in its treatment of options for analysis, frequently advocating one particular method above others. The recent appearance of many articles and textbooks on Bayesian modeling has provided welcome background on relevant approaches to model selection in the Bayesian framework, but most of these are either very narrowly focused in scope or inaccessible to ecologists. Moreover, the methodological details of Bayesian model selection approaches are spread thinly throughout the literature, appearing in journals from many different fields. Our aim with this guide is to condense the large body of literature on Bayesian approaches to model selection and multimodel inference and present it specifically for quantitative ecologists as neutrally as possible. We also bring to light a few important and fundamental concepts relating directly to model selection that seem to have gone unnoticed in the ecological literature. Throughout, we provide only a minimal discussion of philosophy, preferring instead to examine the breadth of approaches as well as their practical advantages and disadvantages. This guide serves as a reference for ecologists using Bayesian methods, so that they can better understand their options and can make an informed choice that is best aligned with their goals for inference.
Quantum finance Hamiltonian for coupon bond European and barrier options.

PubMed

Baaquie, Belal E

2008-03-01

Coupon bond European and barrier options are financial derivatives that can be analyzed in the Hamiltonian formulation of quantum finance. Forward interest rates are modeled as a two-dimensional quantum field theory and its Hamiltonian and state space is defined. European and barrier options are realized as transition amplitudes of the time integrated Hamiltonian operator. The double barrier option for a financial instrument is "knocked out" (terminated with zero value) if the price of the underlying instrument exceeds or falls below preset limits; the barrier option is realized by imposing boundary conditions on the eigenfunctions of the forward interest rates' Hamiltonian. The price of the European coupon bond option and the zero coupon bond barrier option are calculated. It is shown that, is general, the constraint function for a coupon bond barrier option can -- to a good approximation -- be linearized. A calculation using an overcomplete set of eigenfunctions yields an approximate price for the coupon bond barrier option, which is given in the form of an integral of a factor that results from the barrier condition times another factor that arises from the payoff function.
78 FR 7835 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BOX Options Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change...

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2013-02-04

... at $145 per share would carry a total deliverable value of $145,000, and the strike price would be... Jumbo option strike price of $145 was trading at $146 per share, the intrinsic $1 per share value would... Shares Deliverable Upon Exercise 100 shares........ 1,000 shares Strike Price if underlying is 45 45 $45...

76 FR 23849 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-28

... Change To Permit the Listing of Series With $0.50 and $1 Strike Price Increments on Certain Options Used... price is between $75 and $150 for option series used to calculate volatility indexes. The text of the... option series used to calculate volatility indexes. The proposal is based on a recently approved rule...
77 FR 62277 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-12

... closing rotation procedures to determine the month-end closing price for each series of S&P 500 Index options based on the theoretical fair value of such series. The text of the proposed rule change is... month-end, the closing price of each series of S&P 500 Index (``SPX'') options are aligned with the...
Novelty and Inductive Generalization in Human Reinforcement Learning.

PubMed

Gershman, Samuel J; Niv, Yael

2015-07-01

In reinforcement learning (RL), a decision maker searching for the most rewarding option is often faced with the question: What is the value of an option that has never been tried before? One way to frame this question is as an inductive problem: How can I generalize my previous experience with one set of options to a novel option? We show how hierarchical Bayesian inference can be used to solve this problem, and we describe an equivalence between the Bayesian model and temporal difference learning algorithms that have been proposed as models of RL in humans and animals. According to our view, the search for the best option is guided by abstract knowledge about the relationships between different options in an environment, resulting in greater search efficiency compared to traditional RL algorithms previously applied to human cognition. In two behavioral experiments, we test several predictions of our model, providing evidence that humans learn and exploit structured inductive knowledge to make predictions about novel options. In light of this model, we suggest a new interpretation of dopaminergic responses to novelty. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.
Novelty and Inductive Generalization in Human Reinforcement Learning

PubMed Central

Gershman, Samuel J.; Niv, Yael

2015-01-01

In reinforcement learning, a decision maker searching for the most rewarding option is often faced with the question: what is the value of an option that has never been tried before? One way to frame this question is as an inductive problem: how can I generalize my previous experience with one set of options to a novel option? We show how hierarchical Bayesian inference can be used to solve this problem, and describe an equivalence between the Bayesian model and temporal difference learning algorithms that have been proposed as models of reinforcement learning in humans and animals. According to our view, the search for the best option is guided by abstract knowledge about the relationships between different options in an environment, resulting in greater search efficiency compared to traditional reinforcement learning algorithms previously applied to human cognition. In two behavioral experiments, we test several predictions of our model, providing evidence that humans learn and exploit structured inductive knowledge to make predictions about novel options. In light of this model, we suggest a new interpretation of dopaminergic responses to novelty. PMID:25808176
Exponential model for option prices: Application to the Brazilian market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Antônio M. T.; Carvalho, J. A.; Vasconcelos, G. L.

2016-03-01

In this paper we report an empirical analysis of the Ibovespa index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange and its respective option contracts. We compare the empirical data on the Ibovespa options with two option pricing models, namely the standard Black-Scholes model and an empirical model that assumes that the returns are exponentially distributed. It is found that at times near the option expiration date the exponential model performs better than the Black-Scholes model, in the sense that it fits the empirical data better than does the latter model.
Applications of δ-function perturbation to the pricing of derivative securities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decamps, Marc; De Schepper, Ann; Goovaerts, Marc

2004-11-01

In the recent econophysics literature, the use of functional integrals is widespread for the calculation of option prices. In this paper, we extend this approach in several directions by means of δ-function perturbations. First, we show that results about infinitely repulsive δ-function are applicable to the pricing of barrier options. We also introduce functional integrals over skew paths that give rise to a new European option formula when combined with δ-function potential. We propose accurate closed-form approximations based on the theory of comonotonic risks in case the functional integrals are not analytically computable.
Time series ARIMA models for daily price of palm oil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ariff, Noratiqah Mohd; Zamhawari, Nor Hashimah; Bakar, Mohd Aftar Abu

2015-02-01

Palm oil is deemed as one of the most important commodity that forms the economic backbone of Malaysia. Modeling and forecasting the daily price of palm oil is of great interest for Malaysia's economic growth. In this study, time series ARIMA models are used to fit the daily price of palm oil. The Akaike Infromation Criterion (AIC), Akaike Infromation Criterion with a correction for finite sample sizes (AICc) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) are used to compare between different ARIMA models being considered. It is found that ARIMA(1,2,1) model is suitable for daily price of crude palm oil in Malaysia for the year 2010 to 2012.
Jump spillover between oil prices and exchange rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiao-Ping; Zhou, Chun-Yang; Wu, Chong-Feng

2017-11-01

In this paper, we investigate the jump spillover effects between oil prices and exchange rates. To identify the latent historical jumps for exchange rates and oil prices, we use a Bayesian MCMC approach to estimate the stochastic volatility model with correlated jumps in both returns and volatilities for each. We examine the simultaneous jump intensities and the conditional jump spillover probabilities between oil prices and exchange rates, finding strong evidence of jump spillover effects. Further analysis shows that the jump spillovers are mainly due to exogenous events such as financial crises and geopolitical events. Thus, the findings have important implications for financial risk management.
A unifying Bayesian account of contextual effects in value-based choice

PubMed Central

Friston, Karl J.; Dolan, Raymond J.

2017-01-01

Empirical evidence suggests the incentive value of an option is affected by other options available during choice and by options presented in the past. These contextual effects are hard to reconcile with classical theories and have inspired accounts where contextual influences play a crucial role. However, each account only addresses one or the other of the empirical findings and a unifying perspective has been elusive. Here, we offer a unifying theory of context effects on incentive value attribution and choice based on normative Bayesian principles. This formulation assumes that incentive value corresponds to a precision-weighted prediction error, where predictions are based upon expectations about reward. We show that this scheme explains a wide range of contextual effects, such as those elicited by other options available during choice (or within-choice context effects). These include both conditions in which choice requires an integration of multiple attributes and conditions where a multi-attribute integration is not necessary. Moreover, the same scheme explains context effects elicited by options presented in the past or between-choice context effects. Our formulation encompasses a wide range of contextual influences (comprising both within- and between-choice effects) by calling on Bayesian principles, without invoking ad-hoc assumptions. This helps clarify the contextual nature of incentive value and choice behaviour and may offer insights into psychopathologies characterized by dysfunctional decision-making, such as addiction and pathological gambling. PMID:28981514
Valuating Privacy with Option Pricing Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berthold, Stefan; Böhme, Rainer

One of the key challenges in the information society is responsible handling of personal data. An often-cited reason why people fail to make rational decisions regarding their own informational privacy is the high uncertainty about future consequences of information disclosures today. This chapter builds an analogy to financial options and draws on principles of option pricing to account for this uncertainty in the valuation of privacy. For this purpose, the development of a data subject's personal attributes over time and the development of the attribute distribution in the population are modeled as two stochastic processes, which fit into the Binomial Option Pricing Model (BOPM). Possible applications of such valuation methods to guide decision support in future privacy-enhancing technologies (PETs) are sketched.
E-Valuation: Pricing E-Learning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartley, Darin E.

2001-01-01

Looks at the ways that electronic learning is priced in organizations and the factors that influence the pricing. Discusses pros and cons of several pricing options: price per seat, subscription, pay as you go, per server, free, and payment based on time. (JOW)
5 CFR 591.213 - What prices does OPM collect?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... time of the survey. The price includes any sales, excise, or general business tax passed on to the...-business prices, or area-wide distress sale prices. (2) OPM prices automobiles at dealers and obtains the sticker (i.e., non-negotiated) price for the model and specified options. The prices are the manufacturer...
Internet Access and Pricing: Sorting Out the Options.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fowler, Thomas B.

1997-01-01

Discusses Internet access and pricing options. Highlights include restructuring of the telecommunications industry; current methods of access; economics of high-speed access; the impact of cheap Internet access; long-term possibilities; and a table that provides a comparison of Internet access methods. (LRW)
Option Price Estimates for Water Quality Improvements: A Contingent Valuation Study for the Monongahela River (1985)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This paper presents the findings from a contingent valuation survey designed to estimate the option price bids for the improved recreation resulting from enhanced water quality in the Pennsylvania portion of the Monongahela River.
78 FR 4505 - Options Price Reporting Authority; Notice of Filing of Proposed Amendment to the Plan for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-22

... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Release No. 34-68655; File No. SR-OPRA-2012-07] Options Price Reporting Authority; Notice of Filing of Proposed Amendment to the Plan for Reporting of Consolidated Options Last Sale Reports and Quotation Information To Amend Section 3.5 of the OPRA Plan January 15, 2013. Pursuant to Section 11A of the...
26 CFR 1.457-11 - Tax treatment of participants if plan is not an eligible plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

..., grants an option to acquire property to employee C. The option lacks a readily ascertainable fair market... within the meaning of section 83(c)(1)). Z exercises the option in 2012 by paying an exercise price of... of the basis that results from the $100,000 of income in 2004 and the $75,000 exercise price. Example...
Efficient option valuation of single and double barrier options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Milev, Mariyan; Koleva-Petkova, Dessislava; Vladev, Veselin

2017-12-01

In this paper we present an implementation of pricing algorithm for single and double barrier options using Mellin transformation with Maximum Entropy Inversion and its suitability for real-world applications. A detailed analysis of the applied algorithm is accompanied by implementation in C++ that is then compared to existing solutions in terms of efficiency and computational power. We then compare the applied method with existing closed-form solutions and well known methods of pricing barrier options that are based on finite differences.
A Real Options Approach to Valuing the Risk Transfer in a Multi-Year Procurement Contract

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-10-01

asset follows a Brownian motion process where the returns have a lognormal distribution. H. BLACK-SCHOLES MODEL The value of the put option p on...risk in a firm-fixed-price contract. The government also provides interest-free financing that can greatly reduce the amount of capital a contractor...structured finance and credit default swap applications. 8 E. OPTIONS THEORY We will use closed form BS-type option pricing methods to estimate the
Pricing of medical devices under coverage uncertainty--a modelling approach.

PubMed

Girling, Alan J; Lilford, Richard J; Young, Terry P

2012-12-01

Product vendors and manufacturers are increasingly aware that purchasers of health care will fund new clinical treatments only if they are perceived to deliver value-for-money. This influences companies' internal commercial decisions, including the price they set for their products. Other things being equal, there is a price threshold, which is the maximum price at which the device will be funded and which, if its value were known, would play a central role in price determination. This paper examines the problem of pricing a medical device from the vendor's point of view in the presence of uncertainty about what the price threshold will be. A formal solution is obtained by maximising the expected value of the net revenue function, assuming a Bayesian prior distribution for the price threshold. A least admissible price is identified. The model can also be used as a tool for analysing proposed pricing policies when no formal prior specification of uncertainty is available. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Testing option pricing with the Edgeworth expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balieiro Filho, Ruy Gabriel; Rosenfeld, Rogerio

2004-12-01

There is a well-developed framework, the Black-Scholes theory, for the pricing of contracts based on the future prices of certain assets, called options. This theory assumes that the probability distribution of the returns of the underlying asset is a Gaussian distribution. However, it is observed in the market that this hypothesis is flawed, leading to the introduction of a fudge factor, the so-called volatility smile. Therefore, it would be interesting to explore extensions of the Black-Scholes theory to non-Gaussian distributions. In this paper, we provide an explicit formula for the price of an option when the distributions of the returns of the underlying asset is parametrized by an Edgeworth expansion, which allows for the introduction of higher independent moments of the probability distribution, namely skewness and kurtosis. We test our formula with options in the Brazilian and American markets, showing that the volatility smile can be reduced. We also check whether our approach leads to more efficient hedging strategies of these instruments.

On the Black-Scholes European Option Pricing Model Robustness and Generality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takada, Hellinton Hatsuo; de Oliveira Siqueira, José

2008-11-01

The common presentation of the widely known and accepted Black-Scholes European option pricing model explicitly imposes some restrictions such as the geometric Brownian motion assumption for the underlying stock price. In this paper, these usual restrictions are relaxed using maximum entropy principle of information theory, Pearson's distribution system, market frictionless and risk-neutrality theories to the calculation of a unique risk-neutral probability measure calibrated with market parameters.
Advanced Numerical Methods for Computing Statistical Quantities of Interest from Solutions of SPDES

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-19

and related optimization problems; developing numerical methods for option pricing problems in the presence of random arbitrage return. 1. Novel...equations (BSDEs) are connected to nonlinear partial differen- tial equations and non-linear semigroups, to the theory of hedging and pricing of contingent...the presence of random arbitrage return [3] We consider option pricing problems when we relax the condition of no arbitrage in the Black- Scholes
Comment on “Time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion and option pricing with transaction costs” by Hui Gu et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Zhidong; Song, Yukun; Zhang, Yunliang

2013-05-01

The purpose of this comment is to point out the inappropriate assumption of “3αH>1” and two problems in the proof of “Theorem 3.1” in section 3 of the paper “Time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion and option pricing with transaction costs” by Hui Gu et al. [H. Gu, J.R. Liang, Y. X. Zhang, Time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion and option pricing with transaction costs, Physica A 391 (2012) 3971-3977]. Then we show the two problems will be solved under our new assumption.
Understanding Financial Innovation: An Introduction to Derivative Financial Products.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robinson, J. N.

1992-01-01

Explains the use of forwards, futures, swaps, and options in international currency trading. Argues that pricing options are based on the same basic principles as pricing other financial instruments. Concludes that, although financial markets have developed several new products, hedging and speculation involve similar processes. (CFR)
Stock and option portfolio using fuzzy logic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumarti, Novriana; Wahyudi, Nanang

2014-03-01

Fuzzy Logic in decision-making process has been widely implemented in various problems in industries. It is the theory of imprecision and uncertainty that was not based on probability theory. Fuzzy Logic adds values of degree between absolute true and absolute false. It starts with and builds on a set of human language rules supplied by the user. The fuzzy systems convert these rules to their mathematical equivalents. This could simplify the job of the system designer and the computer, and results in much more accurate representations of the way systems behave in the real world. In this paper we examine the decision making process of stock and option trading by the usage of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) technical analysis and Option Pricing with Fuzzy Logic approach. MACD technical analysis is for the prediction of the trends of underlying stock prices, such as bearish (going downward), bullish (going upward), and sideways. By using Fuzzy C-Means technique and Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System, we define the decision output where the value of MACD is high then decision is "Strong Sell", and the value of MACD is Low then the decision is "Strong Buy". We also implement the fuzzification of the Black-Scholes option-pricing formula. The stock and options methods are implemented on a portfolio of one stock and its options. Even though the values of input data, such as interest rates, stock price and its volatility, cannot be obtain accurately, these fuzzy methods can give a belief degree of the calculated the Black-Scholes formula so we can make the decision on option trading. The results show the good capability of the methods in the prediction of stock price trends. The performance of the simulated portfolio for a particular period of time also shows good return.
Binomial tree method for pricing a regime-switching volatility stock loans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putri, Endah R. M.; Zamani, Muhammad S.; Utomo, Daryono B.

2018-03-01

Binomial model with regime switching may represents the price of stock loan which follows the stochastic process. Stock loan is one of alternative that appeal investors to get the liquidity without selling the stock. The stock loan mechanism resembles that of American call option when someone can exercise any time during the contract period. From the resembles both of mechanism, determination price of stock loan can be interpreted from the model of American call option. The simulation result shows the behavior of the price of stock loan under a regime-switching with respect to various interest rate and maturity.
48 CFR 22.404-12 - Labor standards for contracts containing construction requirements and option provisions that...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... contract price adjustment. An example of a contract pricing method that the contracting officer might... contracts containing construction requirements and option provisions that extend the term of the contract... SOCIOECONOMIC PROGRAMS APPLICATION OF LABOR LAWS TO GOVERNMENT ACQUISITIONS Labor Standards for Contracts...
17 CFR 34.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... decomposed into an option payout or payouts, is measured by the absolute net value of the put option premia with strike prices less than or equal to the reference price plus the absolute net value of the call... which a commodity-dependent payment becomes non-zero, or, in the case where two potential reference...
17 CFR 34.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... decomposed into an option payout or payouts, is measured by the absolute net value of the put option premia with strike prices less than or equal to the reference price plus the absolute net value of the call... which a commodity-dependent payment becomes non-zero, or, in the case where two potential reference...
17 CFR 34.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... decomposed into an option payout or payouts, is measured by the absolute net value of the put option premia with strike prices less than or equal to the reference price plus the absolute net value of the call... which a commodity-dependent payment becomes non-zero, or, in the case where two potential reference...
17 CFR 34.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... decomposed into an option payout or payouts, is measured by the absolute net value of the put option premia with strike prices less than or equal to the reference price plus the absolute net value of the call... which a commodity-dependent payment becomes non-zero, or, in the case where two potential reference...
17 CFR 34.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... decomposed into an option payout or payouts, is measured by the absolute net value of the put option premia with strike prices less than or equal to the reference price plus the absolute net value of the call... which a commodity-dependent payment becomes non-zero, or, in the case where two potential reference...
The Pricing of Information--A Search-Based Approach to Pricing an Online Search Service.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boyle, Harry F.

1982-01-01

Describes innovative pricing structure consisting of low connect time fee, print fees, and search fees, offered by Chemical Abstracts Service (CAS) ONLINE--an online searching system used to locate chemical substances. Pricing options considered by CAS, the search-based pricing approach, and users' reactions to pricing structures are noted. (EJS)
The wave-equivalent of the Black-Scholes option price: an interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haven, Emmanuel

2004-12-01

We propose an interpretation of the wave-equivalent of the Black-Scholes option price. We consider Nelson's version of the Brownian motion (Dynamical Theories of Brownian Motion, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 1967) and we use this specific motion as an input to produce a Black-Scholes PDE with a risk premium.
77 FR 4070 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; C2 Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-26

... all the option series have the same expiration.\\7\\ The functionality is designed to detect scenarios... designed to prevent incoming orders from automatically executing at potentially erroneous prices. These price check parameter features are designed to help maintain a fair and orderly market. The Exchange is...
77 FR 68877 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-16

... pricing for NASDAQ members using the NASDAQ Options Market (``NOM''), NASDAQ's facility for executing and... recoup costs that the Exchange incurs for routing and executing certain orders in equity options to the International Securities Exchange, LLC (``ISE''). The Exchange's Pricing Schedule at Chapter XV, Section 2(4...
75 FR 51306 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX BX, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-19

... systems capacity to handle the additional traffic associated with the listing and trading of $1 strikes... Relating to Establishing Strike Price Intervals for Options on Trust Issued Receipts, Including Holding... Rules of the Boston Options Exchange Group, LLC (``BOX'') to establish strike price intervals for...
Estimation of option-implied risk-neutral into real-world density by using calibration function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahaludin, Hafizah; Abdullah, Mimi Hafizah

2017-04-01

Option prices contain crucial information that can be used as a reflection of future development of an underlying assets' price. The main objective of this study is to extract the risk-neutral density (RND) and the risk-world density (RWD) of option prices. A volatility function technique is applied by using a fourth order polynomial interpolation to obtain the RNDs. Then, a calibration function is used to convert the RNDs into RWDs. There are two types of calibration function which are parametric and non-parametric calibrations. The density is extracted from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index options with a one month constant maturity from January 2009 until December 2015. The performance of RNDs and RWDs extracted are evaluated by using a density forecasting test. This study found out that the RWDs obtain can provide an accurate information regarding the price of the underlying asset in future compared to that of the RNDs. In addition, empirical evidence suggests that RWDs from a non-parametric calibration has a better accuracy than other densities.
Pricing unit-linked insurance with guaranteed benefit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iqbal, M.; Novkaniza, F.; Novita, M.

2017-07-01

Unit-linked insurance is an investment-linked insurance, that is, the given benefit is the premium investment out-come. Recently, the most widely marketed insurance in the industry is unit-linked insurance with guaranteed benefit. With guaranteed benefit applied, the insurance benefits form is similar to the payoff form of European call option. Thereby, pricing European call option is involved in pricing unit-linked insurance with guaranteed benefit. The dynamics of investment outcome is assumed to follow stochastic interest rate. Hence, change of measure methods is used in pricing unit-linked insurance. The discount factor with stochastic interest rate needs to be modified as well to be zero coupon bond price. Eventually, the insurance premium is calculated by equivalence principle with guaranteed benefit and insurance period explicitly given.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vanderbei, Robert J., E-mail: rvdb@princeton.edu; P Latin-Small-Letter-Dotless-I nar, Mustafa C., E-mail: mustafap@bilkent.edu.tr; Bozkaya, Efe B.

An American option (or, warrant) is the right, but not the obligation, to purchase or sell an underlying equity at any time up to a predetermined expiration date for a predetermined amount. A perpetual American option differs from a plain American option in that it does not expire. In this study, we solve the optimal stopping problem of a perpetual American option (both call and put) in discrete time using linear programming duality. Under the assumption that the underlying stock price follows a discrete time and discrete state Markov process, namely a geometric random walk, we formulate the pricing problemmore » as an infinite dimensional linear programming (LP) problem using the excessive-majorant property of the value function. This formulation allows us to solve complementary slackness conditions in closed-form, revealing an optimal stopping strategy which highlights the set of stock-prices where the option should be exercised. The analysis for the call option reveals that such a critical value exists only in some cases, depending on a combination of state-transition probabilities and the economic discount factor (i.e., the prevailing interest rate) whereas it ceases to be an issue for the put.« less

An explicit closed-form analytical solution for European options under the CGMY model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Wenting; Du, Meiyu; Xu, Xiang

2017-01-01

In this paper, we consider the analytical pricing of European path-independent options under the CGMY model, which is a particular type of pure jump Le´vy process, and agrees well with many observed properties of the real market data by allowing the diffusions and jumps to have both finite and infinite activity and variation. It is shown that, under this model, the option price is governed by a fractional partial differential equation (FPDE) with both the left-side and right-side spatial-fractional derivatives. In comparison to derivatives of integer order, fractional derivatives at a point not only involve properties of the function at that particular point, but also the information of the function in a certain subset of the entire domain of definition. This ;globalness; of the fractional derivatives has added an additional degree of difficulty when either analytical methods or numerical solutions are attempted. Albeit difficult, we still have managed to derive an explicit closed-form analytical solution for European options under the CGMY model. Based on our solution, the asymptotic behaviors of the option price and the put-call parity under the CGMY model are further discussed. Practically, a reliable numerical evaluation technique for the current formula is proposed. With the numerical results, some analyses of impacts of four key parameters of the CGMY model on European option prices are also provided.
7 CFR 1955.66 - Lease of real property.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... leased or rented (market rent). Inventory property will not be leased for a token amount. (1) Farm... payment assistance, if any) calculated on the basis of the price of the house and income of the lessee... price. (2) The purchase price (option price) will be the advertised sales price as determined by an...
An inverse problem of determining the implied volatility in option pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Zui-Cha; Yu, Jian-Ning; Yang, Liu

2008-04-01

In the Black-Scholes world there is the important quantity of volatility which cannot be observed directly but has a major impact on the option value. In practice, traders usually work with what is known as implied volatility which is implied by option prices observed in the market. In this paper, we use an optimal control framework to discuss an inverse problem of determining the implied volatility when the average option premium, namely the average value of option premium corresponding with a fixed strike price and all possible maturities from the current time to a chosen future time, is known. The issue is converted into a terminal control problem by Green function method. The existence and uniqueness of the minimum of the control functional are addressed by the optimal control method, and the necessary condition which must be satisfied by the minimum is also given. The results obtained in the paper may be useful for those who engage in risk management or volatility trading.
Option pricing for stochastic volatility model with infinite activity Lévy jumps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Xiaoli; Zhuang, Xintian

2016-08-01

The purpose of this paper is to apply the stochastic volatility model driven by infinite activity Lévy processes to option pricing which displays infinite activity jumps behaviors and time varying volatility that is consistent with the phenomenon observed in underlying asset dynamics. We specially pay attention to three typical Lévy processes that replace the compound Poisson jumps in Bates model, aiming to capture the leptokurtic feature in asset returns and volatility clustering effect in returns variance. By utilizing the analytical characteristic function and fast Fourier transform technique, the closed form formula of option pricing can be derived. The intelligent global optimization search algorithm called Differential Evolution is introduced into the above highly dimensional models for parameters calibration so as to improve the calibration quality of fitted option models. Finally, we perform empirical researches using both time series data and options data on financial markets to illustrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.
Multirole cargo aircraft options and configurations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Conner, D. W.; Vaughan, J. C., III

1979-01-01

The paper discusses multirole cargo aircraft options and configurations. It was shown that derivatives of current wide-body aircraft would be economically attractive through 2008, but new dedicated airfreighters incorporating 1990 technology would offer little or no economic incentive. Option studies indicate that Mach 0.7 propfans would be economically attractive in trip cost, aircraft price, and airline ROI; spanloaders would be lower priced with higher ROI, but would have a relatively higher trip cost because of aerodynamic inefficiencies. Finally, air cushion landing gear configurations are identified as an option for avoiding runway constraints on airport accommodation of very large airfreighters.
Confidence limits for data mining models of options prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Healy, J. V.; Dixon, M.; Read, B. J.; Cai, F. F.

2004-12-01

Non-parametric methods such as artificial neural nets can successfully model prices of financial options, out-performing the Black-Scholes analytic model (Eur. Phys. J. B 27 (2002) 219). However, the accuracy of such approaches is usually expressed only by a global fitting/error measure. This paper describes a robust method for determining prediction intervals for models derived by non-linear regression. We have demonstrated it by application to a standard synthetic example (29th Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society, Special Session on Intelligent Systems, pp. 1926-1931). The method is used here to obtain prediction intervals for option prices using market data for LIFFE “ESX” FTSE 100 index options ( http://www.liffe.com/liffedata/contracts/month_onmonth.xls). We avoid special neural net architectures and use standard regression procedures to determine local error bars. The method is appropriate for target data with non constant variance (or volatility).
77 FR 56903 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-14

... category is OTC options that have the same degree of customization as FLEX options. The third category... customization as FLEX options, and (iv) customized options where the strike price is expressed in percentage...
Technologies that complement congestion pricing : a primer.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-10-01

The purpose of this volume is to consider the technology options that are available to complement congestion-pricing approaches. This primer explores how technology broadens the success for congestion pricing by supporting the traveler's decision to ...
78 FR 69711 - Change in Postal Rates

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-20

.... Domestic Extra Services. Premium Forwarding Service prices increase slightly, and a new pricing option is... volume threshold for cubic pricing and other Commercial Plus offerings are decreased to 50,000 packages... methods for which GXG Commercial Base and PMEI Commercial Base pricing is available; the establishment of...
Remarks on a financial inverse problem by means of Monte Carlo Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuomo, Salvatore; Di Somma, Vittorio; Sica, Federica

2017-10-01

Estimating the price of a barrier option is a typical inverse problem. In this paper we present a numerical and statistical framework for a market with risk-free interest rate and a risk asset, described by a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). After approximating the risk asset with a numerical method, we find the final option price by following an approach based on sequential Monte Carlo methods. All theoretical results are applied to the case of an option whose underlying is a real stock.
Convergence analysis of a monotonic penalty method for American option pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kai; Yang, Xiaoqi; Teo, Kok Lay

2008-12-01

This paper is devoted to study the convergence analysis of a monotonic penalty method for pricing American options. A monotonic penalty method is first proposed to solve the complementarity problem arising from the valuation of American options, which produces a nonlinear degenerated parabolic PDE with Black-Scholes operator. Based on the variational theory, the solvability and convergence properties of this penalty approach are established in a proper infinite dimensional space. Moreover, the convergence rate of the combination of two power penalty functions is obtained.
Tradeoffs between Price and Quality: How a Value Index Affects Preference Formation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Creyer, Elizabeth H.; Ross, William T., Jr.

1997-01-01

Some of a group of 143 consumers were given a choice between higher-priced, higher-quality items and items with lower price and quality but higher value index (benefit/cost tradeoff); others were given price and quality information only. Consumers were more likely to choose lower-priced, higher-value options when the index information was…
76 FR 74095 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-30

.... Rights and warrants entitle owners to purchase shares of stock at predetermined prices subject to various timing and other conditions. Like options, the price of rights and warrants are affected by the price of... consequence, the prices of rights and warrants may move more dramatically than the prices of the underlying...
The valuation of currency options by fractional Brownian motion.

PubMed

Shokrollahi, Foad; Kılıçman, Adem

2016-01-01

This research aims to investigate a model for pricing of currency options in which value governed by the fractional Brownian motion model (FBM). The fractional partial differential equation and some Greeks are also obtained. In addition, some properties of our pricing formula and simulation studies are presented, which demonstrate that the FBM model is easy to use.
76 FR 71092 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-16

... quoted prices in the respective SPX series at the time of execution, each constituent execution will be... Demeterfi, Emanuel Derman, Michael Kamal and Joseph Zou, Goldman Sachs Quantitative Strategies Research... series. The following table shows the SPX option mid-quote prices prevailing at the time of the S&P 500...
48 CFR 22.404-12 - Labor standards for contracts containing construction requirements and option provisions that...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... contract price as a result of the incorporation of a new or revised wage determination at the exercise of... contracting officer may include in the contract a separately specified pricing method that permits an... term of the contract. At the time of option exercise, the contracting officer must incorporate a new...
76 FR 5644 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-01

... Effectiveness of Proposed Rule Change Regarding the Listing of Option Series With $1 Strike Prices January 25... by the Exchange. The Exchange filed the proposal as a ``non- controversial'' proposed rule change... amend its rules regarding the listing of $1 strike prices. The text of the rule proposal is available on...
76 FR 2158 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-12

... Effectiveness of Proposed Rule Change to Establish a $5 Strike Price Program January 6, 2011. Pursuant to... Exchange. The Exchange filed the proposal as a ``non- controversial'' proposed rule change pursuant to... $5 or greater where the strike price is more than $200 in up to five option classes on individual...
Bounds for Asian basket options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deelstra, Griselda; Diallo, Ibrahima; Vanmaele, Michèle

2008-09-01

In this paper we propose pricing bounds for European-style discrete arithmetic Asian basket options in a Black and Scholes framework. We start from methods used for basket options and Asian options. First, we use the general approach for deriving upper and lower bounds for stop-loss premia of sums of non-independent random variables as in Kaas et al. [Upper and lower bounds for sums of random variables, Insurance Math. Econom. 27 (2000) 151-168] or Dhaene et al. [The concept of comonotonicity in actuarial science and finance: theory, Insurance Math. Econom. 31(1) (2002) 3-33]. We generalize the methods in Deelstra et al. [Pricing of arithmetic basket options by conditioning, Insurance Math. Econom. 34 (2004) 55-57] and Vanmaele et al. [Bounds for the price of discrete sampled arithmetic Asian options, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 185(1) (2006) 51-90]. Afterwards we show how to derive an analytical closed-form expression for a lower bound in the non-comonotonic case. Finally, we derive upper bounds for Asian basket options by applying techniques as in Thompson [Fast narrow bounds on the value of Asian options, Working Paper, University of Cambridge, 1999] and Lord [Partially exact and bounded approximations for arithmetic Asian options, J. Comput. Finance 10 (2) (2006) 1-52]. Numerical results are included and on the basis of our numerical tests, we explain which method we recommend depending on moneyness and time-to-maturity.
General properties of solutions to inhomogeneous Black-Scholes equations with discontinuous maturity payoffs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O, Hyong-Chol; Jo, Jong-Jun; Kim, Ji-Sok

2016-02-01

We provide representations of solutions to terminal value problems of inhomogeneous Black-Scholes equations and study such general properties as min-max estimates, gradient estimates, monotonicity and convexity of the solutions with respect to the stock price variable, which are important for financial security pricing. In particular, we focus on finding representation of the gradient (with respect to the stock price variable) of solutions to the terminal value problems with discontinuous terminal payoffs or inhomogeneous terms. Such terminal value problems are often encountered in pricing problems of compound-like options such as Bermudan options or defaultable bonds with discrete default barrier, default intensity and endogenous default recovery. Our results can be used in pricing real defaultable bonds under consideration of existence of discrete coupons or taxes on coupons.

Comparative analysis of dynamic pricing strategies for managed lanes.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-06-01

The objective of this research is to investigate and compare the performances of different : dynamic pricing strategies for managed lanes facilities. These pricing strategies include real-time : traffic responsive methods, as well as refund options a...
Milk marketing policy options for the dairy industry in New England.

PubMed

Doyon, M; Criner, G; Bragg, L A

2008-03-01

New England dairy farmers are under intense price pressure resulting from important growth in milk production from lower cost of production Southwest states as well as by retailers' market power. Agricultural officials and legislative bodies in New England and in other Northeast US states are aware of these pressures and have been reacting with emergency dairy farm aid, following a very low 2006 milk price, and with state legislations in an attempt to address perceived excess retailing margins for fluid milk. In this paper, we suggest that a sigmoid demand relationship exists for fluid milk. This demand relationship would explain fluid milk asymmetric price transmission, high-low pricing, and the creation of a large retailing margin (chain surplus) often observed for fluid milk. It is also argued that a sigmoid demand relationship offers an opportunity for state legislators to help Northeast dairy farmers capturing a larger share of the dollar of the consumers through various policy options. Therefore, 5 milk market channel regulatory mechanisms (status quo, price gouging, supply control, fair share policy, and chain surplus return) are discussed and compared. The supply control mechanism was found the most effective at redistributing the chain surplus, associated with the sigmoid demand relationship for fluid milk, to dairy farmers. However, this option is unlikely to be politically acceptable in the United States. Second-best options for increasing dairy farmers' share of the consumers' dollar are the fair price policy and the chain surplus return. The former mechanism would distribute the chain surplus between retailers, processors, and farmers, whereas the latter would distribute it between consumers, retailers, and farmers. Remaining mechanisms would either transfer the chain surplus to retailers (status quo) or to consumers (price gouging).
Hedged Monte-Carlo: low variance derivative pricing with objective probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potters, Marc; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Sestovic, Dragan

2001-01-01

We propose a new ‘hedged’ Monte-Carlo ( HMC) method to price financial derivatives, which allows to determine simultaneously the optimal hedge. The inclusion of the optimal hedging strategy allows one to reduce the financial risk associated with option trading, and for the very same reason reduces considerably the variance of our HMC scheme as compared to previous methods. The explicit accounting of the hedging cost naturally converts the objective probability into the ‘risk-neutral’ one. This allows a consistent use of purely historical time series to price derivatives and obtain their residual risk. The method can be used to price a large class of exotic options, including those with path dependent and early exercise features.
[The Probabilistic Efficiency Frontier: A Value Assessment of Treatment Options in Hepatitis C].

PubMed

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Sadler, Andrew

2017-06-19

Background The German Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG) recommends the concept of the efficiency frontier to assess health care interventions. The efficiency frontier supports regulatory decisions on reimbursement prices for the appropriate allocation of health care resources. Until today this cost-benefit assessment framework has only been applied on the basis of individual patient-relevant endpoints. This contradicts the reality of a multi-dimensional patient benefit. Objective The objective of this study was to illustrate the operationalization of multi-dimensional benefit considering the uncertainty in clinical effects and preference data in order to calculate the efficiency of different treatment options for hepatitis C (HCV). This case study shows how methodological challenges could be overcome in order to use the efficiency frontier for economic analysis and health care decision-making. Method The operationalization of patient benefit was carried out on several patient-relevant endpoints. Preference data from a discrete choice experiment (DCE) study and clinical data based on clinical trials, which reflected the patient and the clinical perspective, respectively, were used for the aggregation of an overall benefit score. A probabilistic efficiency frontier was constructed in a Monte Carlo simulation with 10000 random draws. Patient-relevant endpoints were modeled with a beta distribution and preference data with a normal distribution. The assessment of overall benefit and costs provided information about the adequacy of the treatment prices. The parameter uncertainty was illustrated by the price-acceptability-curve and the net monetary benefit. Results Based on the clinical and preference data in Germany, the interferon-free treatment options proved to be efficient for the current price level. The interferon-free therapies of the latest generation achieved a positive net cost-benefit. Within the decision model, these therapies showed a maximum overall benefit. Due to their high additional benefit and approved prices, the therapies lie above of the extrapolated efficiency frontier, which suggests that these options have efficient reimbursement prices. Considering uncertainty, even a higher price would have resulted in a positive cost-benefit ratio. Conclusion IQWiG's efficiency frontier was used to assess the value of different treatment options in HCV. This study demonstrates that the probabilistic efficiency frontier, price-acceptability-curve and the net monetary benefit can contribute essential information to reimbursement decisions and price negotiations. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.
75 FR 39593 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX, Inc.; Order Granting Approval of Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-09

... stocks on which option series may be listed at $1 strike price intervals. To be eligible for inclusion in..., 2003) (SR-Phlx-2002-55) (approval of pilot program). The Strike Program was then extended several times... option series with $1 strike price intervals for any class selected for the program, except as...
75 FR 35113 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-21

... Stock Market LLC To List Options on Trust Issued Receipts in $1 Strike Intervals June 15, 2010. Pursuant... options on Trust Issued Receipts in $1 strike price intervals. The text of the proposed rule change is...''), as defined in Supplementary Material to Section 6 at .01(b), in $1 or greater strike price intervals...
26 CFR 1.424-1 - Definitions and special rules applicable to statutory options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... in § 1.424-1(e)(4)(v)) or change in the terms or number of outstanding shares of such corporation... or price of shares purchasable under an option merely to reflect market fluctuations in the price of... of the outstanding shares of a corporation (as described in paragraph (a)(3)(ii) of this section...
77 FR 76135 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-26

... 500 Index option series in the pilot: (1) A time series analysis of open interest; and (2) an analysis... issue's total market share value, which is the share price times the number of shares outstanding. These... other series. Strike price intervals would be set no less than 5 points apart. Consistent with existing...
An investigation of implied volatility during financial crisis: Evidence from Australian index options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdullah, Mimi Hafizah; Harun, Hanani Farhah

2014-10-01

Volatility implied by an option pricing model is seen as the market participants' assessment of volatility. Past studies documented that implied volatility based on an option pricing model is found to outperform the historical volatility in forecasting future realised volatility. Thus, this study examines the implied volatility smiles and term structures in the Australian S&P/ASX 200 index options from the year 2001 to 2010, which covers the global financial crisis in the mid-2007 until the end of 2008. The results show that the implied volatility rises significantly during the crisis period, which is three time the rate before crisis.
Electronic journal access: how does it affect the print subscription price?*

PubMed Central

Chen, Frances L.; Wrynn, Paul; Rieke, Judith L.

2001-01-01

Objective: This study examined the rates of print journal subscription price increases according to the type of available electronic access. The types of access included: electronic priced separately from the print, combination print with “free online” access, and aggregated, defined here as electronic access purchased as part of a collection. The percentages of print price increases were compared to each other and to that for titles available only in print. The authors were not aware of prior objective research in this area. Methods: The authors analyzed the percentage print price increases of 300 journals over a five-year time period. The titles were grouped according to type of available electronic access. The median and mean percentage print price increases were calculated and plotted for all titles within each group. Results: Using both the median and the mean to look at the percentage print price increases over five years, it was obvious that print prices for journals with electronic access exceeded journals that did not offer an electronic option. Electronic priced separately averaged 3% to 5% higher than print only titles using both measures. Combination print with “free online” access had higher increases from 1996 to 1999, but, in 2000, their percentage increases were about the same as print only titles. The rate of price increases for aggregated titles consistently went down over the past five years. Journals with no electronic option showed the lowest percentage rates of print price increase. Conclusions: The authors' findings reveal that the increases of print prices for their sample of titles were higher if a type of electronic access was offered. According to the results of this study, aggregated collections currently represent the electronic option whose percentage price increase for print prices was lowest. However, the uneven fluctuations in rates of subscription prices revealed that the pricing of journals with electronic access is still evolving. More study is recommended to see if the trends observed in this study are sustained over a longer time period. PMID:11837258
path integral approach to closed form pricing formulas in the Heston framework.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemmens, Damiaan; Wouters, Michiel; Tempere, Jacques; Foulon, Sven

2008-03-01

We present a path integral approach for finding closed form formulas for option prices in the framework of the Heston model. The first model for determining option prices was the Black-Scholes model, which assumed that the logreturn followed a Wiener process with a given drift and constant volatility. To provide a realistic description of the market, the Black-Scholes results must be extended to include stochastic volatility. This is achieved by the Heston model, which assumes that the volatility follows a mean reverting square root process. Current applications of the Heston model are hampered by the unavailability of fast numerical methods, due to a lack of closed-form formulae. Therefore the search for closed form solutions is an essential step before the qualitatively better stochastic volatility models will be used in practice. To attain this goal we outline a simplified path integral approach yielding straightforward results for vanilla Heston options with correlation. Extensions to barrier options and other path-dependent option are discussed, and the new derivation is compared to existing results obtained from alternative path-integral approaches (Dragulescu, Kleinert).
Estimation and prediction under local volatility jump-diffusion model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Namhyoung; Lee, Younhee

2018-02-01

Volatility is an important factor in operating a company and managing risk. In the portfolio optimization and risk hedging using the option, the value of the option is evaluated using the volatility model. Various attempts have been made to predict option value. Recent studies have shown that stochastic volatility models and jump-diffusion models reflect stock price movements accurately. However, these models have practical limitations. Combining them with the local volatility model, which is widely used among practitioners, may lead to better performance. In this study, we propose a more effective and efficient method of estimating option prices by combining the local volatility model with the jump-diffusion model and apply it using both artificial and actual market data to evaluate its performance. The calibration process for estimating the jump parameters and local volatility surfaces is divided into three stages. We apply the local volatility model, stochastic volatility model, and local volatility jump-diffusion model estimated by the proposed method to KOSPI 200 index option pricing. The proposed method displays good estimation and prediction performance.
78 FR 18407 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX BX, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-26

... with customer bases of potential product users have indicated a preference that premium pricing for... clarity as to the minimum pricing increments for Mini Options, the filing would harmonize penny pricing... symbol'' of an underlying security and cannot differentiate, for purposes of minimum variation pricing...
Numerical methods on European option second order asymptotic expansions for multiscale stochastic volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canhanga, Betuel; Ni, Ying; Rančić, Milica; Malyarenko, Anatoliy; Silvestrov, Sergei

2017-01-01

After Black-Scholes proposed a model for pricing European Options in 1973, Cox, Ross and Rubinstein in 1979, and Heston in 1993, showed that the constant volatility assumption made by Black-Scholes was one of the main reasons for the model to be unable to capture some market details. Instead of constant volatilities, they introduced stochastic volatilities to the asset dynamic modeling. In 2009, Christoffersen empirically showed "why multifactor stochastic volatility models work so well". Four years later, Chiarella and Ziveyi solved the model proposed by Christoffersen. They considered an underlying asset whose price is governed by two factor stochastic volatilities of mean reversion type. Applying Fourier transforms, Laplace transforms and the method of characteristics they presented a semi-analytical formula to compute an approximate price for American options. The huge calculation involved in the Chiarella and Ziveyi approach motivated the authors of this paper in 2014 to investigate another methodology to compute European Option prices on a Christoffersen type model. Using the first and second order asymptotic expansion method we presented a closed form solution for European option, and provided experimental and numerical studies on investigating the accuracy of the approximation formulae given by the first order asymptotic expansion. In the present paper we will perform experimental and numerical studies for the second order asymptotic expansion and compare the obtained results with results presented by Chiarella and Ziveyi.
Black-Scholes finite difference modeling in forecasting of call warrant prices in Bursa Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansor, Nur Jariah; Jaffar, Maheran Mohd

2014-07-01

Call warrant is a type of structured warrant in Bursa Malaysia. It gives the holder the right to buy the underlying share at a specified price within a limited period of time. The issuer of the structured warrants usually uses European style to exercise the call warrant on the maturity date. Warrant is very similar to an option. Usually, practitioners of the financial field use Black-Scholes model to value the option. The Black-Scholes equation is hard to solve analytically. Therefore the finite difference approach is applied to approximate the value of the call warrant prices. The central in time and central in space scheme is produced to approximate the value of the call warrant prices. It allows the warrant holder to forecast the value of the call warrant prices before the expiry date.
On CAPM and Black-Scholes differing risk-return strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCauley, Joseph L.; Gunaratne, Gemunu H.

2003-11-01

In their path-finding 1973 paper, Black and Scholes presented two separate derivations of their famous option pricing partial differential equation. The second derivation was from the standpoint that was Black's original motivation, namely, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). We show here, in contrast, that the option valuation is not uniquely determined; in particular, strategies based on the delta-hedge and CAPM provide different valuations of an option although both hedges are instantaneouly riskfree. Second, we show explicitly that CAPM is not, as economists claim, an equilibrium theory.
77 FR 46783 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-06

... contingency price which will indicate the highest price that a buyer is willing to pay or the lowest price at which a seller is willing to accept (such contingency price to be in $0.01 (full penny) increments only). If NBB is higher than this contingency price for a Buy order, or the NBO is lower than this...
17 CFR 32.3 - Unlawful commodity option transactions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Unlawful commodity option... REGULATION OF COMMODITY OPTION TRANSACTIONS § 32.3 Unlawful commodity option transactions. (a) On and after... extend credit in lieu thereof) from an option customer as payment of the purchase price in connection...
Analytic Approximations to the Free Boundary and Multi-dimensional Problems in Financial Derivatives Pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, Chun Sing

This thesis studies two types of problems in financial derivatives pricing. The first type is the free boundary problem, which can be formulated as a partial differential equation (PDE) subject to a set of free boundary condition. Although the functional form of the free boundary condition is given explicitly, the location of the free boundary is unknown and can only be determined implicitly by imposing continuity conditions on the solution. Two specific problems are studied in details, namely the valuation of fixed-rate mortgages and CEV American options. The second type is the multi-dimensional problem, which involves multiple correlated stochastic variables and their governing PDE. One typical problem we focus on is the valuation of basket-spread options, whose underlying asset prices are driven by correlated geometric Brownian motions (GBMs). Analytic approximate solutions are derived for each of these three problems. For each of the two free boundary problems, we propose a parametric moving boundary to approximate the unknown free boundary, so that the original problem transforms into a moving boundary problem which can be solved analytically. The governing parameter of the moving boundary is determined by imposing the first derivative continuity condition on the solution. The analytic form of the solution allows the price and the hedging parameters to be computed very efficiently. When compared against the benchmark finite-difference method, the computational time is significantly reduced without compromising the accuracy. The multi-stage scheme further allows the approximate results to systematically converge to the benchmark results as one recasts the moving boundary into a piecewise smooth continuous function. For the multi-dimensional problem, we generalize the Kirk (1995) approximate two-asset spread option formula to the case of multi-asset basket-spread option. Since the final formula is in closed form, all the hedging parameters can also be derived in closed form. Numerical examples demonstrate that the pricing and hedging errors are in general less than 1% relative to the benchmark prices obtained by numerical integration or Monte Carlo simulation. By exploiting an explicit relationship between the option price and the underlying probability distribution, we further derive an approximate distribution function for the general basket-spread variable. It can be used to approximate the transition probability distribution of any linear combination of correlated GBMs. Finally, an implicit perturbation is applied to reduce the pricing errors by factors of up to 100. When compared against the existing methods, the basket-spread option formula coupled with the implicit perturbation turns out to be one of the most robust and accurate approximation methods.
The modified Black-Scholes model via constant elasticity of variance for stock options valuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edeki, S. O.; Owoloko, E. A.; Ugbebor, O. O.

2016-02-01

In this paper, the classical Black-Scholes option pricing model is visited. We present a modified version of the Black-Scholes model via the application of the constant elasticity of variance model (CEVM); in this case, the volatility of the stock price is shown to be a non-constant function unlike the assumption of the classical Black-Scholes model.

Who's biased? A meta-analysis of buyer-seller differences in the pricing of lotteries.

PubMed

Yechiam, Eldad; Ashby, Nathaniel J S; Pachur, Thorsten

2017-05-01

A large body of empirical research has examined the impact of trading perspective on pricing of consumer products, with the typical finding being that selling prices exceed buying prices (i.e., the endowment effect). Using a meta-analytic approach, we examine to what extent the endowment effect also emerges in the pricing of monetary lotteries. As monetary lotteries have a clearly defined normative value, we also assess whether one trading perspective is more biased than the other. We consider several indicators of bias: absolute deviation from expected values, rank correlation with expected values, overall variance, and per-unit variance. The meta-analysis, which includes 35 articles, indicates that selling prices considerably exceed buying prices (Cohen's d = 0.58). Importantly, we also find that selling prices deviate less from the lotteries' expected values than buying prices, both in absolute and in relative terms. Selling prices also exhibit lower variance per unit. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling with cumulative prospect theory indicates that buyers have lower probability sensitivity and a more pronounced response bias. The finding that selling prices are more in line with normative standards than buying prices challenges the prominent account whereby sellers' valuations are upward biased due to loss aversion, and supports alternative theoretical accounts. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
Do healthier foods and diet patterns cost more than less healthy options? A systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Rao, Mayuree; Afshin, Ashkan; Singh, Gitanjali; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2013-01-01

Objective To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of prices of healthier versus less healthy foods/diet patterns while accounting for key sources of heterogeneity. Data sources MEDLINE (2000–2011), supplemented with expert consultations and hand reviews of reference lists and related citations. Design Studies reviewed independently and in duplicate were included if reporting mean retail price of foods or diet patterns stratified by healthfulness. We extracted, in duplicate, mean prices and their uncertainties of healthier and less healthy foods/diet patterns and rated the intensity of health differences for each comparison (range 1–10). Prices were adjusted for inflation and the World Bank purchasing power parity, and standardised to the international dollar (defined as US$1) in 2011. Using random effects models, we quantified price differences of healthier versus less healthy options for specific food types, diet patterns and units of price (serving, day and calorie). Statistical heterogeneity was quantified using I2 statistics. Results 27 studies from 10 countries met the inclusion criteria. Among food groups, meats/protein had largest price differences: healthier options cost $0.29/serving (95% CI $0.19 to $0.40) and $0.47/200 kcal ($0.42 to $0.53) more than less healthy options. Price differences per serving for healthier versus less healthy foods were smaller among grains ($0.03), dairy (−$0.004), snacks/sweets ($0.12) and fats/oils ($0.02; p<0.05 each) and not significant for soda/juice ($0.11, p=0.64). Comparing extremes (top vs bottom quantile) of food-based diet patterns, healthier diets cost $1.48/day ($1.01 to $1.95) and $1.54/2000 kcal ($1.15 to $1.94) more. Comparing nutrient-based patterns, price per day was not significantly different (top vs bottom quantile: $0.04; p=0.916), whereas price per 2000 kcal was $1.56 ($0.61 to $2.51) more. Adjustment for intensity of differences in healthfulness yielded similar results. Conclusions This meta-analysis provides the best evidence until today of price differences of healthier vs less healthy foods/diet patterns, highlighting the challenges and opportunities for reducing financial barriers to healthy eating. PMID:24309174
Pricing real estate index options under stochastic interest rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Pu; Dai, Jun

2017-08-01

Real estate derivatives as new financial instruments are not merely risk management tools but also provide a novel way to gain exposure to real estate assets without buying or selling the physical assets. Although real estate derivatives market has exhibited a rapid development in recent years, the valuation challenge of real estate derivatives remains a great obstacle for further development in this market. In this paper, we derive a partial differential equation contingent on a real estate index in a stochastic interest rate environment and propose a modified finite difference method that adopts the non-uniform grids to solve this problem. Numerical results confirm the efficiency of the method and indicate that constant interest rate models lead to the mispricing of options and the effects of stochastic interest rates on option prices depend on whether the term structure of interest rates is rising or falling. Finally, we have investigated and compared the different effects of stochastic interest rates on European and American option prices.
Continuous time Black-Scholes equation with transaction costs in subdiffusive fractional Brownian motion regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun; Liang, Jin-Rong; Lv, Long-Jin; Qiu, Wei-Yuan; Ren, Fu-Yao

2012-02-01

In this paper, we study the problem of continuous time option pricing with transaction costs by using the homogeneous subdiffusive fractional Brownian motion (HFBM) Z(t)=X(Sα(t)), 0<α<1, here dX(τ)=μX(τ)(2H+σX(τ)dBH(τ), as a model of asset prices, which captures the subdiffusive characteristic of financial markets. We find the corresponding subdiffusive Black-Scholes equation and the Black-Scholes formula for the fair prices of European option, the turnover and transaction costs of replicating strategies. We also give the total transaction costs.
Price and healthfulness of snacks in 32 YMCA after-school programs in 4 US metropolitan areas, 2006-2008.

PubMed

Mozaffarian, Rebecca S; Andry, Analisa; Lee, Rebekka M; Wiecha, Jean L; Gortmaker, Steven L

2012-01-01

A common perception is that healthful foods are more expensive than less healthful foods. We assessed the cost of beverages and foods served at YMCA after-school programs, determined whether healthful snacks were more expensive, and identified inexpensive, healthful options. We collected daily snack menus from 32 YMCAs nationwide from 2006 to 2008 and derived prices of beverages and foods from the US Department of Agriculture price database. Multiple linear regression was used to assess associations of healthful snacks and of beverage and food groups with price (n = 1,294 snack-days). We identified repeatedly served healthful snacks consistent with Child and Adult Care Food Program guidelines and reimbursement rate ($0.74/snack). On average, healthful snacks were approximately 50% more expensive than less healthful snacks ($0.26/snack; SE, 0.08; P = .003). Compared to water, 100% juice significantly increased average snack price, after controlling for other variables in the model. Similarly, compared to refined grains with trans fats, refined grains without trans fat significantly increased snack price, as did fruit and canned or frozen vegetables. Fresh vegetables (mostly carrots or celery) or whole grains did not alter price. Twenty-two repeatedly served snacks met nutrition guidelines and the reimbursement rate. In this sample of after-school programs, healthful snacks were typically more expensive than less healthful options; however, we identified many healthful snacks served at or below the price of less healthful options. Substituting tap water for 100% juice yielded price savings that could be used toward purchasing more healthful foods (eg, an apple). Our findings have practical implications for selecting snacks that meet health and reimbursement guidelines.
76 FR 74099 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-30

... predetermined prices subject to various timing and other conditions. Like options, the price of rights and... volatility of the stock. As a consequence, the prices of rights and warrants may move more dramatically than the prices of the underlying stocks even when the rights and warrants (and the underlying stock) are...
78 FR 21985 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; C2 Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing of Amendment...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-12

... prices of a large number of individual securities suddenly declining by significant amounts in a very short time period before suddenly reversing to prices consistent with their pre-decline levels.\\8\\ This severe price volatility led to a large number of trades being executed at temporarily depressed prices...
76 FR 74093 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; EDGX Exchange, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-30

.... Like options, the price of rights and warrants are affected by the price of the underlying stock as well as other factors, particularly the volatility of the stock. As a consequence, the prices of rights and warrants may move more dramatically than the prices of the underlying stocks even when the rights...
76 FR 74082 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Amex LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-30

... predetermined prices subject to various timing and other conditions. Like options, the price of rights and... volatility of the stock. As a consequence, the prices of rights and warrants may move more dramatically than the prices of the underlying stocks even when the rights and warrants (and the underlying stock) are...
76 FR 74080 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; New York Stock Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-30

... predetermined prices subject to various timing and other conditions. Like options, the price of rights and... volatility of the stock. As a consequence, the prices of rights and warrants may move more dramatically than the prices of the underlying stocks even when the rights and warrants (and the underlying stock) are...
76 FR 74109 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX BX, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-30

... predetermined prices subject to various timing and other conditions. Like options, the price of rights and... volatility of the stock. As a consequence, the prices of rights and warrants may move more dramatically than the prices of the underlying stocks even when the rights and warrants (and the underlying stock) are...
Bertrand Model Under Incomplete Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, Fernanda A.; Pinto, Alberto A.

2008-09-01

We consider a Bertrand duopoly model with unknown costs. The firms' aim is to choose the price of its product according to the well-known concept of Bayesian Nash equilibrium. The chooses are made simultaneously by both firms. In this paper, we suppose that each firm has two different technologies, and uses one of them according to a certain probability distribution. The use of either one or the other technology affects the unitary production cost. We show that this game has exactly one Bayesian Nash equilibrium. We analyse the advantages, for firms and for consumers, of using the technology with highest production cost versus the one with cheapest production cost. We prove that the expected profit of each firm increases with the variance of its production costs. We also show that the expected price of each good increases with both expected production costs, being the effect of the expected production costs of the rival dominated by the effect of the own expected production costs.
Pricing Models and Payment Schemes for Library Collections.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stern, David

2002-01-01

Discusses new pricing and payment options for libraries in light of online products. Topics include alternative cost models rather than traditional subscriptions; use-based pricing; changes in scholarly communication due to information technology; methods to determine appropriate charges for different organizations; consortial plans; funding; and…
Should the Department of Defense Hedge Oil Prices in Order to Save Money

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA MBA PROFESSIONAL REPORT Should the Department of Defense Hedge Oil Prices In Order...DATES COVERED MBA Professional Report 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Should the Department of Defense Hedge Oil Prices in Order to Save Money? 6. James...the DoD. 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 59 14. SUBJECT TERMS Futures, Options, Swaps, Hedging . Oil Prices, DoD, Procurement 16. PRICE CODE
78 FR 17741 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BOX Options Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-22

... Organizations; BOX Options Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule Change To Permit the Minimum Price Variation for Mini Options To Be the Same as Permitted for Standard Options on... Options Exchange LLC (the ``Exchange'') filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (``Commission...
75 FR 17805 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; the Options Clearing Corporation; Notice of Filing of Proposed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-07

...-Settled Foreign Currency Options With One-Cent Exercise Prices April 1, 2010. Pursuant to Section 19(b)(1... currency options traded on national securities exchanges will be treated and cleared as securities options...- settled foreign currency options traded on national securities exchanges will be treated and cleared as...
Rethinking the Buy vs. Lease Decision

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-01

Bargain Price Option. The lease contains an option to purchase the leased property at a bargain price. • Estimated Economic Life. The lease term is...new “purpose-built” (as opposed to commercially- acceptable) American-made ships. In 2002 the Air Force identified replacement of the aging fleet of...for replacement on an “unfunded priorities” list supplied to Congress the previous year. According to an Air Force report to Congress, net present
Solution of time fractional Black-Scholes European option pricing equation arising in financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravi Kanth, A. S. V.; Aruna, K.

2016-12-01

In this paper, we present fractional differential transform method (FDTM) and modified fractional differential transform method (MFDTM) for the solution of time fractional Black-Scholes European option pricing equation. The method finds the solution without any discretization, transformation, or restrictive assumptions with the use of appropriate initial or boundary conditions. The efficiency and exactitude of the proposed methods are tested by means of three examples.
An approach to quantify the heat wave strength and price a heat derivative for risk hedging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Samuel S. P.; Kramps, Benedikt; Sun, Shirley X.; Bailey, Barbara

2012-01-01

Mitigating the heat stress via a derivative policy is a vital financial option for agricultural producers and other business sectors to strategically adapt to the climate change scenario. This study has provided an approach to identifying heat stress events and pricing the heat stress weather derivative due to persistent days of high surface air temperature (SAT). Cooling degree days (CDD) are used as the weather index for trade. In this study, a call-option model was used as an example for calculating the price of the index. Two heat stress indices were developed to describe the severity and physical impact of heat waves. The daily Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-D) SAT data from 1901 to 2007 from the southern California, USA, were used. A major California heat wave that occurred 20-25 October 1965 was studied. The derivative price was calculated based on the call-option model for both long-term station data and the interpolated grid point data at a regular 0.1°×0.1° latitude-longitude grid. The resulting comparison indicates that (a) the interpolated data can be used as reliable proxy to price the CDD and (b) a normal distribution model cannot always be used to reliably calculate the CDD price. In conclusion, the data, models, and procedures described in this study have potential application in hedging agricultural and other risks.
75 FR 13174 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Order Approving...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-18

...-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Order Approving Proposed Rule Change To Establish Strike Price Intervals and Trading Hours for Options on Index-Linked Securities March 12, 2010. I. Introduction On January 27, 2010, the Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated (``CBOE...

Quantum Mechanics, Path Integrals and Option Pricing:. Reducing the Complexity of Finance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Corianò, Claudio; Srikant, Marakani

2003-04-01

Quantum Finance represents the synthesis of the techniques of quantum theory (quantum mechanics and quantum field theory) to theoretical and applied finance. After a brief overview of the connection between these fields, we illustrate some of the methods of lattice simulations of path integrals for the pricing of options. The ideas are sketched out for simple models, such as the Black-Scholes model, where analytical and numerical results are compared. Application of the method to nonlinear systems is also briefly overviewed. More general models, for exotic or path-dependent options are discussed.
75 FR 4435 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-27

... transaction is above or below the Theoretical Price for the series by a specified amount. The ``Theoretical Price'' of an option series is currently defined in Rule 975NY(a)(2) as the last bid price with respect... Trading Officials to establish the Theoretical Price when the NBBO for the affected series, just prior to...
78 FR 57203 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-17

... to the Exchange and that this new pricing will not impact trading in Penny Pilot Options on ETFs on... Change To Amend the Exchange's Pricing Schedule September 11, 2013. Pursuant to Section 19(b)(1) of the... The Exchange proposes to amend the Exchange's Pricing Schedule with respect to certain pricing in...
78 FR 10265 - Pricing for the 2013 Commemorative Coin Programs-Silver and Clad Coin Options

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-13

.... SUMMARY: The United States Mint is announcing prices for the 2013 Girl Scouts of the USA Centennial Silver.... Introductory Product price Regular price 2013 Girl Scouts of the USA Centennial $54.95 $59.95 Proof Silver Dollar 2013 Girl Scouts of the USA Centennial 50.95 55.95 Uncirculated Silver Dollar 2013 5-Star Generals...
77 FR 2595 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; C2 Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing of a Proposed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-18

...-side second order in one of two formats: (1) A specified single price; or (2) a non-price specific... enhance competition in the AIM Auctions and provide customers with additional opportunities for price... NBBO; and (ii) allow Initiating TPHs to designate a limit price if it elects to auto-match. This...
78 FR 27271 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BOX Options Exchange LLC; Order Granting Approval of Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-09

... symbols (SPYJ) than the corresponding standard options on SPY.\\8\\ In addition, the Exchange proposes to list Jumbo SPY Options for all expirations applicable to standard options on SPY,\\9\\ and proposes that strike prices for Jumbo SPY Options be set at the same level as standard options on SPY.\\10\\ Bids and...
77 FR 15833 - Options Price Reporting Authority; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-16

... Reporting of Consolidated Options Last Sale Reports and Quotation Information To Amend OPRA's Fee Schedule... of Consolidated Options Last Sale Reports and Quotation Information (``OPRA Plan'').\\3\\ The proposed... sale and quotation information on options that are traded on the participant exchanges. The nine...
An Accurate and Stable FFT-based Method for Pricing Options under Exp-Lévy Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Deng; Chong U, Sio

2010-05-01

An accurate and stable method for pricing European options in exp-Lévy models is presented. The main idea of this new method is combining the quadrature technique and the Carr-Madan Fast Fourier Transform methods. The theoretical analysis shows that the overall complexity of this new method is still O(N log N) with N grid points as the fast Fourier transform methods. Numerical experiments for different exp-Lévy processes also show that the numerical algorithm proposed by this new method has an accuracy and stability for the small strike prices K. That develops and improves the Carr-Madan method.
48 CFR 17.207 - Exercise of options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... period specified in the contract. (b) When the contract provides for economic price adjustment and the... consideration such factors as market stability and comparison of the time since award with the usual duration of... that is subject to an economic price adjustment provision; or (5) A specific price that is subject to...
Building Process Improvement Business Cases Using Bayesian Belief Networks and Monte Carlo Simulation

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-07-01

simulation. The pilot described in this paper used this two-step approach within a Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, and Control ( DMAIC ) framework to...networks, BBN, Monte Carlo simulation, DMAIC , Six Sigma, business case 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 35 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF
Hints for an extension of the early exercise premium formula for American options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bermin, Hans-Peter; Kohatsu-Higa, Arturo; Perelló, Josep

2005-09-01

There exists a non-closed formula for the American put option price and non-trivial computations are required to solve it. Strong efforts have been made to propose efficient numerical techniques but few have strong mathematical reasoning to ascertain why they work well. We present an extension of the American put price aiming to catch weaknesses of the numerical methods based on their non-fulfillment of the smooth pasting condition.
Perpetual American vanilla option pricing under single regime change risk: an exhaustive study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montero, Miquel

2009-07-01

Perpetual American options are financial instruments that can be readily exercised and do not mature. In this paper we study in detail the problem of pricing this kind of derivatives, for the most popular flavour, within a framework in which some of the properties—volatility and dividend policy—of the underlying stock can change at a random instant of time but in such a way that we can forecast their final values. Under this assumption we can model actual market conditions because most relevant facts usually entail sharp predictable consequences. The effect of this potential risk on perpetual American vanilla options is remarkable: the very equation that will determine the fair price depends on the solution to be found. Sound results are found under the optics both of finance and physics. In particular, a parallelism among the overall outcome of this problem and a phase transition is established.
76 FR 19162 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX BX, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-06

... Amend the BOX Rules To Expand the $2.50 Strike Price Program March 31, 2011. Pursuant to Section 19(b)(1..., LLC (``BOX'') to expand the $2.50 Strike Price Program. The text of the proposed rule change is... Strike Price Program (``Program'') \\4\\ to permit the listing of options with $2.50 strike price intervals...
Comparing projected impacts of cigarette floor price and excise tax policies on socioeconomic disparities in smoking

PubMed Central

Golden, Shelley D; Farrelly, Matthew C; Luke, Douglas A; Ribisl, Kurt M

2016-01-01

Background About half of all US states have cigarette minimum price laws (MPLs) that require a per cent mark-up on prices, but research suggests they may not be very effective in raising prices. An alternative type of MPL sets a floor price below which packs cannot be sold, and may be more promising. This new type of MPL policy has only been implemented in 1 city, therefore its benefits relative to excise taxes is difficult to assess. Methods We constructed a set of possible state floor price MPL options, and matched them to possible state excise tax hikes designed to produce similar average price increases. Using self-reported price and cigarette consumption data from 23 521 participants in the 2010–2011 Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey, we projected changes in pack prices and cigarette consumption following implementation of each paired MPL and tax option, for lower and higher income groups. Results We project that state MPLs set at the average reported pack price would raise prices by $0.33 and reduce cigarette consumption by about 4%; a tax with a similar average price effect would reduce consumption by 2.3%. MPLs and taxes that raise average prices by more than $2.00 would reduce consumption by 15.9% and 13.5%, respectively. In all models, we project that MPLs will reduce income-based smoking disparities more than their comparable excise taxes. Conclusions Floor price cigarette MPLs set at or above what consumers currently report paying could reduce both tobacco use and socioeconomic disparities in smoking. PMID:27697949
Preconditions for market solution to urban water scarcity: Empirical results from Hyderabad City, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleth, R. Maria; Dinar, Ariel

2001-01-01

Utilizing both primary and secondary information pertaining to the water sector of Hyderabad City, India, this paper (1) evaluates the economics of various technically feasible supply augmentations options; (2) estimates the group-specific water demand and consumption response functions under alternative pricing behaviors; (3) calculates the net willingness to pay (NWTP, considered to be the value of raw water at source) of different user groups as derived from their respective price elasticities; (4) shows how inadequate the NWTP is to justify most supply augmentation options including intersectoral water transfers under the existing water rate structure; (5) argues that the economic and institutional conditions internal to urban water sector cannot justify an externally imposed water transfers, whether market-based or otherwise, as long as the water rate structure is inefficient and regressive; and (6) concludes by underlining the central role that the pricing option, both the level and structure, plays not only in activating a number of nonprice options but also in generating incentives for the emergence of new and the consolidation of existing institutional conditions needed to support economically rooted water transfers and conservation initiatives.
75 FR 70060 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The Options Clearing Corporation; Order Granting Approval of a...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-16

... Organizations; The Options Clearing Corporation; Order Granting Approval of a Proposed Rule Change Relating to Cash- Settled Foreign Currency Options With One-Cent Exercise Prices November 8, 2010. I. Introduction On March 16, 2010, The Options Clearing Corporation (``OCC'') filed with the Securities and Exchange...
78 FR 62771 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BOX Options Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-22

... The Exchange proposes to amend interpretive material to Rule 5050 (Series of Options Contracts Open... Proposed Rule Change 1. Purpose The Exchange proposes to amend IM-5050-6 to Rule 5050 (Series of Options... the strike price interval setting parameters for their Short Term Option Series (``STOS'') Programs...
75 FR 5831 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Order Approving...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-04

... series.\\8\\ The annual report will also contain information and analysis of FLEX Options trading patterns... will also contain information and analysis of FLEX Options trading patterns, and index price volatility... To Establish a Pilot Program To Modify FLEX Option Exercise Settlement Values and Minimum Value Sizes...
77 FR 56247 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Suspension of and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-12

... subdivision thereof.'' \\4\\ CBOE Volatility Index[supreg] (``VIX'') measures market expectations of near term... and sell option volatility. VIX option prices reflect the market's expectation of the VIX level at... TPHs with a qualifying affiliate to pay lower fees for large customer VIX options transactions.\\11\\ The...
77 FR 5073 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-01

... features including size, expiration date, exercise style, and certain exercise prices. FLEX option trading... cleared by The Options Clearing Corporation (``OCC'') \\17\\ and would be European style.\\18\\ Upon exercise... of the Exchange's WCOs or FCOs). \\18\\ Unlike American style options, European style options may be...

Multifractal analysis of implied volatility in index options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, GabJin

2014-06-01

In this paper, we analyze the statistical and the non-linear properties of the log-variations in implied volatility for the CAC40, DAX and S& P500 daily index options. The price of an index option is generally represented by its implied volatility surface, including its smile and skew properties. We utilize a Lévy process model as the underlying asset to deepen our understanding of the intrinsic property of the implied volatility in the index options and estimate the implied volatility surface. We find that the options pricing models with the exponential Lévy model can reproduce the smile or sneer features of the implied volatility that are observed in real options markets. We study the variation in the implied volatility for at-the-money index call and put options, and we find that the distribution function follows a power-law distribution with an exponent of 3.5 ≤ γ ≤ 4.5. Especially, the variation in the implied volatility exhibits multifractal spectral characteristics, and the global financial crisis has influenced the complexity of the option markets.
78 FR 56253 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-12

... Rule Change Relating to $0.50 and $1 Strike Price Intervals for Classes in the Short Term Option Series... options classes that trade in one dollar increments and are in the Short Term Option Series Program... business day, series of options on no more than thirty option classes that expire on each of the next five...
78 FR 32498 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-30

... Change Relating to $0.50 and $1 Strike Price Intervals for Classes in the Short Term Option Series... amend Rule 1012 (Series of Options Open for Trading) and Rule 1101A (Terms of Option Contracts) to give... Term Option Series Program (referred to as a ``Related non-Short Term Option series''), for the Related...
Option Pricing with a Levy-Type Stochastic Dynamic Model for Stock Price Process Under Semi-Markovian Structural Perturbations

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-30

of interest are currently being investigated: (1) an evaluation of the effects of the backward recurrence time, the sojourn time distribution and the...Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 407, 350–359. W. Schachermayer (2010) Fundamental theorem of asset pricing, Encyclopedia of Quanti - tative
77 FR 63903 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX BX, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-17

... a fully automated, price/time priority execution system built on the core functionality of the... orders in price/time priority without regard to the status of the entities that are entering orders. The BX Options market closely resembles NOM, including, most prominently, by offering true price/time...
75 FR 63880 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BATS Exchange, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-18

... strategy. (i) Adoption of Definitions The Exchange proposes to distinguish pricing for routed orders that... Exchange proposes to modify the ``Options Pricing'' section of its fee schedule to: (i) Adopt definitions of ``Customer,'' ``Firm,'' and ``Market Maker'' for purposes of routing pricing; (ii) modify its...
77 FR 7225 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; EDGA Exchange, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-10

... particular venue to be excessive. The proposed rule change reflects a competitive pricing structure designed... BATS + NYSE Arca destination specific routing option to continue to offer a ``one under'' pricing model... exchange that is routed to plus or minus a certain differential. EDGA's pricing is consistent with this...
78 FR 28265 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-14

... (2) a non-price specific commitment to auto-match all Auction responses received during the Auction... enhance competition in the Auctions and provide customers with additional opportunities for price... Auction processing, and specify (i) a single price at which it seeks to cross the Agency Order (with...
76 FR 82336 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-30

... (2) a non-price specific commitment to auto- match all Auction responses achieved during the Auction... price responses, leading to more robust competition in AIM. \\16\\ See supra note 3; see also Securities... enhance competition in the AIM Auctions and provide customers with additional opportunities for price...
A quantum model of option pricing: When Black-Scholes meets Schrödinger and its semi-classical limit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contreras, Mauricio; Pellicer, Rely; Villena, Marcelo; Ruiz, Aaron

2010-12-01

The Black-Scholes equation can be interpreted from the point of view of quantum mechanics, as the imaginary time Schrödinger equation of a free particle. When deviations of this state of equilibrium are considered, as a product of some market imperfection, such as: Transaction cost, asymmetric information issues, short-term volatility, extreme discontinuities, or serial correlations; the classical non-arbitrage assumption of the Black-Scholes model is violated, implying a non-risk-free portfolio. From Haven (2002) [1] we know that an arbitrage environment is a necessary condition to embedding the Black-Scholes option pricing model in a more general quantum physics setting. The aim of this paper is to propose a new Black-Scholes-Schrödinger model based on the endogenous arbitrage option pricing formulation introduced by Contreras et al. (2010) [2]. Hence, we derive a more general quantum model of option pricing, that incorporates arbitrage as an external time dependent force, which has an associated potential related to the random dynamic of the underlying asset price. This new resultant model can be interpreted as a Schrödinger equation in imaginary time for a particle of mass 1/σ2 with a wave function in an external field force generated by the arbitrage potential. As pointed out above, this new model can be seen as a more general formulation, where the perfect market equilibrium state postulated by the Black-Scholes model represent a particular case. Finally, since the Schrödinger equation is in place, we can apply semiclassical methods, of common use in theoretical physics, to find an approximate analytical solution of the Black-Scholes equation in the presence of market imperfections, as it is the case of an arbitrage bubble. Here, as a numerical illustration of the potential of this Schrödinger equation analogy, the semiclassical approximation is performed for different arbitrage bubble forms (step, linear and parabolic) and compare with the exact solution of our general quantum model of option pricing.
D-brane solutions under market panic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pincak, Richard

The relativistic quantum mechanic approach is used to develop stock market dynamics. The relativistic is conceptional here as the meaning of big external volatility or volatility shock on a financial market. We used a differential geometry approach with the parallel transport of prices to obtain a direct shift of the stock price movement. The prices are represented here as electrons with different spin orientation. Up and down orientations of the spin particle are likened here to an increase or a decrease of stock prices. The parallel transport of stock prices is enriched by Riemann curvature, which describes some arbitrage opportunities in the market. To solve the stock-price dynamics, we used the Dirac equation for bispinors on the spherical brane-world. We found out that when a spherical brane is abbreviated to the disk on the equator, we converge to the ideal behavior of financial market where Black-Scholes as well as semi-classical equations are sufficient. Full spherical brane-world scenarios can describe non-equilibrium market behavior where all arbitrage opportunities as well as transaction costs are taken into account. Real application of the model to the option pricing was done. The model developed in this paper brings quantitative different results of option pricing dynamics in the case of nonzero Riemann curvature.
Pricing the property claim service (PCS) catastrophe insurance options using gamma distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noviyanti, Lienda; Soleh, Achmad Zanbar; Setyanto, Gatot R.

2017-03-01

The catastrophic events like earthquakes, hurricanes or flooding are characteristics for some areas, a properly calculated annual premium would be closely as high as the loss insured. From an actuarial perspective, such events constitute the risk that are not insurable. On the other hand people living in such areas need protection. In order to securitize the catastrophe risk, futures or options based on a loss index could be considered. Chicago Board of Trade launched a new class of catastrophe insurance options based on new indices provided by Property Claim Services (PCS). The PCS-option is based on the Property Claim Service Index (PCS-Index). The index are used to determine and payout in writing index-based insurance derivatives. The objective of this paper is to price PCS Catastrophe Insurance Option based on PCS Catastrophe index. Gamma Distribution is used to estimate PCS Catastrophe index distribution.
Valuation of exotic options in the framework of Levy processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milev, Mariyan; Georgieva, Svetla; Markovska, Veneta

2013-12-01

In this paper we explore a straightforward procedure to price derivatives by using the Monte Carlo approach when the underlying process is a jump-diffusion. We have compared the Black-Scholes model with one of its extensions that is the Merton model. The latter model is better in capturing the market's phenomena and is comparative to stochastic volatility models in terms of pricing accuracy. We have presented simulations of asset paths and pricing of barrier options for both Geometric Brownian motion and exponential Levy processes as it is the concrete case of the Merton model. A desired level of accuracy is obtained with simple computer operations in MATLAB for efficient computational time.
Pricing and Fee Management.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fischer, Richard B.

1986-01-01

Defines key terms and discusses things to consider when setting fees for a continuing education program. These include (1) the organization's philosophy and mission, (2) certain key variables, (3) pricing strategy options, and (4) the test of reasonableness. (CH)
Reasoning and choice in the Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD): implications for improving Bayesian reasoning

PubMed Central

Tubau, Elisabet; Aguilar-Lleyda, David; Johnson, Eric D.

2015-01-01

The Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD) is a two-step decision problem involving counterintuitive conditional probabilities. The first choice is made among three equally probable options, whereas the second choice takes place after the elimination of one of the non-selected options which does not hide the prize. Differing from most Bayesian problems, statistical information in the MHD has to be inferred, either by learning outcome probabilities or by reasoning from the presented sequence of events. This often leads to suboptimal decisions and erroneous probability judgments. Specifically, decision makers commonly develop a wrong intuition that final probabilities are equally distributed, together with a preference for their first choice. Several studies have shown that repeated practice enhances sensitivity to the different reward probabilities, but does not facilitate correct Bayesian reasoning. However, modest improvements in probability judgments have been observed after guided explanations. To explain these dissociations, the present review focuses on two types of causes producing the observed biases: Emotional-based choice biases and cognitive limitations in understanding probabilistic information. Among the latter, we identify a crucial cause for the universal difficulty in overcoming the equiprobability illusion: Incomplete representation of prior and conditional probabilities. We conclude that repeated practice and/or high incentives can be effective for overcoming choice biases, but promoting an adequate partitioning of possibilities seems to be necessary for overcoming cognitive illusions and improving Bayesian reasoning. PMID:25873906
Comparing projected impacts of cigarette floor price and excise tax policies on socioeconomic disparities in smoking.

PubMed

Golden, Shelley D; Farrelly, Matthew C; Luke, Douglas A; Ribisl, Kurt M

2016-10-01

About half of all US states have cigarette minimum price laws (MPLs) that require a per cent mark-up on prices, but research suggests they may not be very effective in raising prices. An alternative type of MPL sets a floor price below which packs cannot be sold, and may be more promising. This new type of MPL policy has only been implemented in 1 city, therefore its benefits relative to excise taxes is difficult to assess. We constructed a set of possible state floor price MPL options, and matched them to possible state excise tax hikes designed to produce similar average price increases. Using self-reported price and cigarette consumption data from 23 521 participants in the 2010-2011 Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey, we projected changes in pack prices and cigarette consumption following implementation of each paired MPL and tax option, for lower and higher income groups. We project that state MPLs set at the average reported pack price would raise prices by $0.33 and reduce cigarette consumption by about 4%; a tax with a similar average price effect would reduce consumption by 2.3%. MPLs and taxes that raise average prices by more than $2.00 would reduce consumption by 15.9% and 13.5%, respectively. In all models, we project that MPLs will reduce income-based smoking disparities more than their comparable excise taxes. Floor price cigarette MPLs set at or above what consumers currently report paying could reduce both tobacco use and socioeconomic disparities in smoking. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.
Children's purchase behavior in the snack market: Can branding or lower prices motivate healthier choices?

PubMed

Hartmann, Monika; Cash, Sean B; Yeh, Ching-Hua; Landwehr, Stefanie C; McAlister, Anna R

2017-10-01

Children's dietary-related diseases and their associated costs have expanded dramatically in many countries, making children's food choice a policy issue of increasing relevance. As children spend a considerable amount of money on energy-dense, nutrient-poor (EDNP) products, a better understanding of the main drivers of children's independent food purchase decisions is crucial to move this behavior toward healthier options. The objective of the study is to investigate the role of branding and price in motivating children to choose healthier snack options. The study investigates snack choices of children ages 8 to 11, using a survey and a purchase experiment. The research took place in after-school programs of selected schools in the Boston area. Participants included 116 children. Products in the choice experiment differed on three factors: product type, brand, and price. Data were analyzed using aggregated and mixed logit models. Children's purchase decisions are primarily determined by product type (Importance Value (IV) 56.6%), while brand (IV 22.8%) and price (IV 20.6%) prove to be of less relevance. Only those children who state that they like the familiar brand reveal a preference for the branded product in their purchase decision. Price is a significant predictor of choice when controlling for whether or not children obtain an allowance. It is not simple brand awareness but a child's liking of the brand that determines whether a brand is successful in motivating a child to choose a product. The extent of children's experience with money influences their price responsiveness. To the extent that children who receive an allowance are primarily the ones buying food snacks, higher prices for EDNP snacks could be successful in motivating children to choose a healthier option. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
78 FR 10671 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-14

...-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change To Permit the Minimum Price Variation for Mini-Options To Be the Same as Permitted for Standard Options on the Same Security February 8, 2013. Pursuant to Section 19(b)(1) of the Securities Exchange Act...
78 FR 15385 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX BX, Inc.; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change To...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-11

... Series, any adjusted option series, and any option series until the time to expiration for such series is... existing requirement may at times discourage liquidity in particular options series because a market maker... the option is subject to the Price/Time execution algorithm, the Directed Market Maker shall receive...
77 FR 47131 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Order Granting Approval of Proposed Rule Change...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-07

... exercised or assigned, the writer of the option is obligated to purchase the requisite amount of the asset... put option segregates an amount of cash or cash equivalents sufficient to cover the purchase price of... when the seller executes a closing purchase transaction with respect to such option. All put options...

76 FR 50805 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-16

... trading day's last sale price was greater than $100) in premium in each of the front two expiration months... options whose underlying stock's previous trading day's last sale price was greater than $100) in premium... is within the range of fees assessed by other exchanges employing similar pricing schemes. For...
77 FR 16295 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-20

... trading day's last sale price was greater than $100) in premium in each of the front two expiration months... options whose underlying stock's previous trading day's last sale price was greater than $100) in premium... employing similar pricing schemes and in some cases, is lower that the fees assessed by other exchanges. For...
38 CFR 36.4253 - Title and lien requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

..., which right by the terms thereof is exercisable only if: (i) An owner elects to sell, (ii) The option price is not less than the price at which the then owner is willing to sell to another, and (iii... the then owner of the then owner's election to sell, stating the price and the identity of the...
38 CFR 36.4253 - Title and lien requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

..., which right by the terms thereof is exercisable only if: (i) An owner elects to sell, (ii) The option price is not less than the price at which the then owner is willing to sell to another, and (iii... the then owner of the then owner's election to sell, stating the price and the identity of the...
38 CFR 36.4253 - Title and lien requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

..., which right by the terms thereof is exercisable only if: (i) An owner elects to sell, (ii) The option price is not less than the price at which the then owner is willing to sell to another, and (iii... the then owner of the then owner's election to sell, stating the price and the identity of the...
38 CFR 36.4253 - Title and lien requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

..., which right by the terms thereof is exercisable only if: (i) An owner elects to sell, (ii) The option price is not less than the price at which the then owner is willing to sell to another, and (iii... the then owner of the then owner's election to sell, stating the price and the identity of the...
38 CFR 36.4253 - Title and lien requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

..., which right by the terms thereof is exercisable only if: (i) An owner elects to sell, (ii) The option price is not less than the price at which the then owner is willing to sell to another, and (iii... the then owner of the then owner's election to sell, stating the price and the identity of the...
76 FR 60569 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX BX, Inc.; Order Approving Proposed Rule Change Amending...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-29

... Facilitation Auction, a broadcast message, which will include the proposed execution price of the cross (the ``Facilitation Price''), will be sent to Options Participants giving them one second to enter responses (``Responses'') \\4\\ with the prices and sizes at which they would be willing to participate in the facilitation...
78 FR 44994 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-25

... its proprietary and/or market-making desk to trade at prices that would satisfy customer orders held.../or market-making desk at prices that would satisfy the customer order. If a Trading Permit Holder... proprietary and/or market- making desk to trade at prices that would satisfy customer orders held as a...
Integrating forest growth and harvesting cost models to improve forest management planning

Treesearch

J.E. Baumgras; C.B. LeDoux

1991-01-01

Two methods of estimating harvesting revenue--reported stumpage prices - and delivered prices minus estimated harvesting and haul costs were compared by estimating entry cash flows and rotation net present value for three simulated even-aged forest management options that included 1 to 3 thinnings over a 90 year rotation. Revenue estimates derived from stumpage prices...
76 FR 35503 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-17

... Price Reporting Authority (``OPRA''), the Consolidated Tape Association (``CTA'') tape and/or the Market... equal to $100. The minimum price variation shall be established on a class-by- class basis by the..., the proposal permits the Exchange to designate $0.01 as the minimum price variation for quotes and...
76 FR 5646 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Amex LLC; Order Granting Approval of Proposed Rule Change...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-01

... strike prices and non-parallel strikes in different expiration months of the same issue. The Commission... Listing of Options Series With $1 Strike Prices January 25, 2011. I. Introduction On November 24, 2010... Strike Price Program. The proposed rule change was published for comment in the Federal Register on...
76 FR 60107 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Order Granting...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-28

... underlying price ($24.50) is $20, the Exchange may list a $22 strike. The proposal also contains certain non... Rule to Simplify the $1 Strike Price Interval Program September 22, 2011. I. Introduction On July 26... amend Interpretation and Policy .01 to Rule 5.5 to simplify the $1 Strike Price Interval Program (the...
Finite Volume Method for Pricing European Call Option with Regime-switching Volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lista Tauryawati, Mey; Imron, Chairul; Putri, Endah RM

2018-03-01

In this paper, we present a finite volume method for pricing European call option using Black-Scholes equation with regime-switching volatility. In the first step, we formulate the Black-Scholes equations with regime-switching volatility. we use a finite volume method based on fitted finite volume with spatial discretization and an implicit time stepping technique for the case. We show that the regime-switching scheme can revert to the non-switching Black Scholes equation, both in theoretical evidence and numerical simulations.
Finding the multipath propagation of multivariable crude oil prices using a wavelet-based network approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Xiaoliang; An, Haizhong; Sun, Xiaoqi; Huang, Xuan; Gao, Xiangyun

2016-04-01

The globalization and regionalization of crude oil trade inevitably give rise to the difference of crude oil prices. The understanding of the pattern of the crude oil prices' mutual propagation is essential for analyzing the development of global oil trade. Previous research has focused mainly on the fuzzy long- or short-term one-to-one propagation of bivariate oil prices, generally ignoring various patterns of periodical multivariate propagation. This study presents a wavelet-based network approach to help uncover the multipath propagation of multivariable crude oil prices in a joint time-frequency period. The weekly oil spot prices of the OPEC member states from June 1999 to March 2011 are adopted as the sample data. First, we used wavelet analysis to find different subseries based on an optimal decomposing scale to describe the periodical feature of the original oil price time series. Second, a complex network model was constructed based on an optimal threshold selection to describe the structural feature of multivariable oil prices. Third, Bayesian network analysis (BNA) was conducted to find the probability causal relationship based on periodical structural features to describe the various patterns of periodical multivariable propagation. Finally, the significance of the leading and intermediary oil prices is discussed. These findings are beneficial for the implementation of periodical target-oriented pricing policies and investment strategies.
Foreign Military Sales: O & MN Appropriations are Subsidizing Accessorial Costs.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-09-01

believe that the FAA contemplates recovery of full costs for defense services which are sold to foreign customers. We believe therefore that the selling ...many options for pricing training services . Pricing under the full cost pricing method, in our opinion, would establish a selling price for defense...U.S. defense articles and services . Under the AECA the President is authorized to sell to eligible foreign governments or inter- national organizations
CIDR

Science.gov Websites

Initiation Application Schedule Service Information and Pricing Services Sample Requirements Pricing SNP Genotyping General Information Genome Wide Association Custom FFPE Sample Options Methylation Linkage Consortium Developed Mouse Whole Genome Sequencing General Information Whole Genome Whole Exome Custom
Calibration of Lévy Processes with American Options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achdou, Yves

We study options on financial assets whose discounted prices are exponential of Lévy processes. The price of an American vanilla option as a function of the maturity and the strike satisfies a linear complementarity problem involving a non-local partial integro-differential operator. It leads to a variational inequality in a suitable weighted Sobolev space. Calibrating the Lévy process may be done by solving an inverse least square problem where the state variable satisfies the previously mentioned variational inequality. We first assume that the volatility is positive: after carefully studying the direct problem, we propose necessary optimality conditions for the least square inverse problem. We also consider the direct problem when the volatility is zero.
Carbon dioxide removal and tradeable put options at scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lockley, Andrew; Coffman, D.’Maris

2018-05-01

Options are derivative contracts that give the purchaser the right to buy (call options) or sell (put options) a given underlying asset at a particular price at a future date. The purchaser of a put option may exercise the right to sell the asset to the issuer at any point in the future before the expiration of the contract. These rights may be contracted directly between two parties (i.e. over-the-counter), or may be sold publicly on formal exchanges, such as the Chicago Board Options Exchange. If the latter, they are called tradeable put options (TPOs) because they can be bought and sold by third-parties via a secondary market. The World Bank has a Pilot Auction Facility for methane and carbon mediation which uses TPOs in carbon-relevant markets, giving producers (of e.g. forest restoration) a floor price for their product [1]. This enables long-term producer planning. We discuss the potentially broader use of these options contracts in carbon dioxide removal (CDR) markets generally and at scale. We conclude that they can, if priced correctly, encourage rapid investment both in CDR technology and in operational capacity. TPOs could do this without creating the same type of systemic risk associated with other instruments (e.g. long-dated futures). Nevertheless, the widespread use of such instruments potentially creates novel risks. These include the political risk of premature closure [2] (conventionally rendered as ‘counting your chickens before they are hatched’) and the economic risk of overpaying for carbon removal services. These instruments require careful structuring, and do not inoculate the CDR market against regulatory disruption, or political pressure. Accordingly, we note the potential for the development of TPO markets in CDR, but we urge caution in respect of identified risks.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klimsiak, Tomasz, E-mail: tomas@mat.umk.pl; Rozkosz, Andrzej, E-mail: rozkosz@mat.umk.pl

In the paper we consider the problem of valuation of American options written on dividend-paying assets whose price dynamics follow the classical multidimensional Black and Scholes model. We provide a general early exercise premium representation formula for options with payoff functions which are convex or satisfy mild regularity assumptions. Examples include index options, spread options, call on max options, put on min options, multiply strike options and power-product options. In the proof of the formula we exploit close connections between the optimal stopping problems associated with valuation of American options, obstacle problems and reflected backward stochastic differential equations.

78 FR 20362 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-04

... (``SPY''), Apple, Inc. (``AAPL''), SPDR Gold Trust (``GLD''), Google Inc. (``GOOG'') and Amazon.com Inc.... Further, the options marketplace has a history of offering preferential pricing to Customers. Finally... or unfairly discriminatory. Also, the options marketplace has a history of offering preferential...
75 FR 36456 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-25

... prices. See Exchange Rule 1079. FLEX Options are a trademark of the Chicago Board Options Exchange. While... transactions executed pursuant to Exchange Rule 1079 (``FLEX equity options''). The Exchange believes that the... options transactions executed pursuant to Exchange Rule 1079. \\11\\ 15 U.S.C. 78f(b). \\12\\ 15 U.S.C. 78f(b...
75 FR 38163 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-01

... prices. See Exchange Rule 1079. FLEX Options are a trademark of the Chicago Board Options Exchange. While... pursuant to Exchange Rule 1079 (``FLEX equity options''). The Exchange believes that the proposed fee... options transactions executed pursuant to Exchange Rule 1079. \\11\\ 15 U.S.C. 78f(b). \\12\\ 15 U.S.C. 78f(b...
76 FR 20420 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-12

... Proposed Rule Change Relating to Rebates and Fees in Penny Pilot and Non-Penny Pilot Options April 6, 2011... Penny Pilot \\3\\ Options with respect to the Customer Rebate to Add Liquidity; \\4\\ and (ii) modify pricing for both Penny Pilot Options and All Other Options with respect to the Fees for Removing Liquidity...
77 FR 63384 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-16

... Proposed Rule Change Relating to Non-Penny Pilot and Penny Pilot Options October 10, 2012. Pursuant to.... Specifically, NOM proposes to amend the Non-Penny Pilot Options and Penny Pilot \\3\\ Options pricing. \\3\\ The... assessed for option orders entered into NOM. The Exchange is proposing to amend the Non- Penny Pilot...
78 FR 76363 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-17

... the Related non-STO), and $1 or greater where the strike price is between $75 and $150. The proposed... expand the Short Term Options Program with respect to non-index options. The text of the proposed rule... proposes to expand the Short Term Options (``STO'') Program for non-index options so that the Exchange may...
76 FR 24067 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-29

... Stock Market, LLC Relating to the $2.50 Strike Price Program April 22, 2011. Pursuant to Section 19(b)(1... ability to select option classes on individual stocks for which the intervals of strike prices will be $2... price of the underlying stock in the primary market.\\4\\ The Exchange currently list [sic] series at $2...
75 FR 12320 - Self-Regulatory Organization; The Options Clearing Corporation; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-15

... rule change will amend the definition of ``adjustment increment'' applicable to stock futures. II. Self...). Daily settlement prices and trade prices would continue to be expressed in pennies on a per-contract... settlement price the following day is $50.05, a mark-to-market of $50.05-$49.875 = $0.1750, or $17.50 per...
76 FR 48935 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Proposed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-09

... the $1 Strike Price Interval Program August 4, 2011. Pursuant to Section 19(b)(1) of the Securities... Proposed Rule Change CBOE proposes to amend its rules in order to simplify the $1 Strike Price Interval... Policy .01 to Rule 5.5 in order to simplify the $1 Strike Price Interval Program (``Program''). In 2003...
76 FR 5627 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Order Granting Approval of Proposed Rule Change...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-01

... Listing of Options Series with $1 Strike Prices January 25, 2011. I. Introduction On November 24, 2010... Strike Price Program. The proposed rule change was published for comment in the Federal Register on... proposed to amend Rule 6.4 Commentary .04 to modify the operation of the $1 Strike Price Program. Currently...
Airport and Airway Costs: Allocation and Recovery in the 1980’s.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-02-01

1997 [8]. 3*X S.% Volume 4, FAA Cost Recovery Options [9). Volume 5, Econometric Cost Functions for FAA Cost Allocation Model [10]. Volume 6, Users...and relative price elasticities ( Ramsey pricing technique). User fees based on the Ramsey pricing tend to be less burdensome on users and minimize...full discussion of the Ramsey pricing techniques is provided in Allocation of Federal Airport and Airway Costs for FY 1985 [6]. -12- In step 5
78 FR 62887 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-22

... market participant to jump ahead of another market participant's quoted price by a de minimis amount, and... market participant to jump ahead of another market participant's quoted price by a de minimis amount, and...
75 FR 61533 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Order Granting Approval of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-05

... intraday auction, then the next available price is used. If no price is available by the end of the Xetra... 611 permits members to exercise discretionary power with respect to trading options in a customer's...
Sparse Bayesian Learning for Nonstationary Data Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujimaki, Ryohei; Yairi, Takehisa; Machida, Kazuo

This paper proposes an online Sparse Bayesian Learning (SBL) algorithm for modeling nonstationary data sources. Although most learning algorithms implicitly assume that a data source does not change over time (stationary), one in the real world usually does due to such various factors as dynamically changing environments, device degradation, sudden failures, etc (nonstationary). The proposed algorithm can be made useable for stationary online SBL by setting time decay parameters to zero, and as such it can be interpreted as a single unified framework for online SBL for use with stationary and nonstationary data sources. Tests both on four types of benchmark problems and on actual stock price data have shown it to perform well.
A Novel Model for Stock Price Prediction Using Hybrid Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senapati, Manas Ranjan; Das, Sumanjit; Mishra, Sarojananda

2018-06-01

The foremost challenge for investors is to select stock price by analyzing financial data which is a menial task as of distort associated and massive pattern. Thereby, selecting stock poses one of the greatest difficulties for investors. Nowadays, prediction of financial market like stock market, exchange rate and share value are very challenging field of research. The prediction and scrutinization of stock price is also a potential area of research due to its vital significance in decision making by financial investors. This paper presents an intelligent and an optimal model for prophecy of stock market price using hybridization of Adaline Neural Network (ANN) and modified Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The connoted model hybrid of Adaline and PSO uses fluctuations of stock market as a factor and employs PSO to optimize and update weights of Adaline representation to depict open price of Bombay stock exchange. The prediction performance of the proposed model is compared with different representations like interval measurements, CMS-PSO and Bayesian-ANN. The result indicates that proposed scheme has an edge over all the juxtaposed schemes in terms of mean absolute percentage error.
Cubature on Wiener Space: Pathwise Convergence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bayer, Christian, E-mail: christian.bayer@wias-berlin.de; Friz, Peter K., E-mail: friz@math.tu-berlin.de

2013-04-15

Cubature on Wiener space (Lyons and Victoir in Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A 460(2041):169-198, 2004) provides a powerful alternative to Monte Carlo simulation for the integration of certain functionals on Wiener space. More specifically, and in the language of mathematical finance, cubature allows for fast computation of European option prices in generic diffusion models.We give a random walk interpretation of cubature and similar (e.g. the Ninomiya-Victoir) weak approximation schemes. By using rough path analysis, we are able to establish weak convergence for general path-dependent option prices.
Study on Amortization Time and Rationality in Real Estate Investment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yancang; Zhou, Shujing; Suo, Juanjuan

Amortization time and rationality has been discussed a lot in real estate investment research. As the price of real estate is driven by Geometric Brown Motion (GBM), whether the mortgagors should amortize in advance has become a key issue in amortization time research. This paper presents a new method to solve the problem by using the optimal stopping time theory and option pricing theory models. We discuss the option value in amortizing decision based on this model. A simulation method is used to test this method.
7 CFR 457.122 - Walnut crop insurance provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... optional units by section, section equivalent, or FSA farm serial number and by irrigated and non-irrigated practices are not applicable. Optional units may be established only if each optional unit is located on non... group, in which case you may select one price election for each walnut variety or varietal group...
7 CFR 457.122 - Walnut crop insurance provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... optional units by section, section equivalent, or FSA farm serial number and by irrigated and non-irrigated practices are not applicable. Optional units may be established only if each optional unit is located on non... group, in which case you may select one price election for each walnut variety or varietal group...
7 CFR 457.122 - Walnut crop insurance provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... optional units by section, section equivalent, or FSA farm serial number and by irrigated and non-irrigated practices are not applicable. Optional units may be established only if each optional unit is located on non... group, in which case you may select one price election for each walnut variety or varietal group...

77 FR 54629 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Order Granting Approval of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-05

.... Introduction On May 21, 2012, the International Securities Exchange, LLC (``ISE'' or ``Exchange'') filed with... its Short Term Option Series Program (``STOS Program'') to permit, during the expiration week of an... open for trading Short Term Option Series at $0.50 strike price intervals for option classes that trade...
76 FR 9696 - Equipment Price Forecasting in Energy Conservation Standards Analysis

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-22

... for particular efficiency design options, an empirical experience curve fit to the available data may be used to forecast future costs of such design option technologies. If a statistical evaluation indicates a low level of confidence in estimates of the design option cost trend, this method should not be...
77 FR 58600 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BOX Options Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-21

... approving expansion of STO Program)[sic]. \\9\\ These include, without limitation, options, equities, futures... hedging strategies across various investment platforms (e.g. equity and ETF, index, derivatives, futures... Web site, strike prices for options on futures may be at an interval of $.05, $.10, and $.25 per...
75 FR 6243 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-08

... capacity to handle the additional traffic associated with the listing and trading of $1 strikes (where the... Change, and Amendment No. 1 Thereto, To Establish Strike Price Intervals and Trading Hours for Options on... the commencement of trading options on Index-Linked Securities, CBOE proposes to establish strike...
77 FR 67851 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BOX Options Exchange LLC; Order Approving Proposed Rule Change To...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-14

... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Release No. 34-68177; File No. SR-BOX-2012-003] Self-Regulatory Organizations; BOX Options Exchange LLC; Order Approving Proposed Rule Change To Amend the Price Improvement Period November 7, 2012. I. Introduction On July 25, 2012, BOX Options Exchange LLC (``Exchange...
Uncertainty plus prior equals rational bias: an intuitive Bayesian probability weighting function.

PubMed

Fennell, John; Baddeley, Roland

2012-10-01

Empirical research has shown that when making choices based on probabilistic options, people behave as if they overestimate small probabilities, underestimate large probabilities, and treat positive and negative outcomes differently. These distortions have been modeled using a nonlinear probability weighting function, which is found in several nonexpected utility theories, including rank-dependent models and prospect theory; here, we propose a Bayesian approach to the probability weighting function and, with it, a psychological rationale. In the real world, uncertainty is ubiquitous and, accordingly, the optimal strategy is to combine probability statements with prior information using Bayes' rule. First, we show that any reasonable prior on probabilities leads to 2 of the observed effects; overweighting of low probabilities and underweighting of high probabilities. We then investigate 2 plausible kinds of priors: informative priors based on previous experience and uninformative priors of ignorance. Individually, these priors potentially lead to large problems of bias and inefficiency, respectively; however, when combined using Bayesian model comparison methods, both forms of prior can be applied adaptively, gaining the efficiency of empirical priors and the robustness of ignorance priors. We illustrate this for the simple case of generic good and bad options, using Internet blogs to estimate the relevant priors of inference. Given this combined ignorant/informative prior, the Bayesian probability weighting function is not only robust and efficient but also matches all of the major characteristics of the distortions found in empirical research. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.
Approximation methods of European option pricing in multiscale stochastic volatility model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ni, Ying; Canhanga, Betuel; Malyarenko, Anatoliy; Silvestrov, Sergei

2017-01-01

In the classical Black-Scholes model for financial option pricing, the asset price follows a geometric Brownian motion with constant volatility. Empirical findings such as volatility smile/skew, fat-tailed asset return distributions have suggested that the constant volatility assumption might not be realistic. A general stochastic volatility model, e.g. Heston model, GARCH model and SABR volatility model, in which the variance/volatility itself follows typically a mean-reverting stochastic process, has shown to be superior in terms of capturing the empirical facts. However in order to capture more features of the volatility smile a two-factor, of double Heston type, stochastic volatility model is more useful as shown in Christoffersen, Heston and Jacobs [12]. We consider one modified form of such two-factor volatility models in which the volatility has multiscale mean-reversion rates. Our model contains two mean-reverting volatility processes with a fast and a slow reverting rate respectively. We consider the European option pricing problem under one type of the multiscale stochastic volatility model where the two volatility processes act as independent factors in the asset price process. The novelty in this paper is an approximating analytical solution using asymptotic expansion method which extends the authors earlier research in Canhanga et al. [5, 6]. In addition we propose a numerical approximating solution using Monte-Carlo simulation. For completeness and for comparison we also implement the semi-analytical solution by Chiarella and Ziveyi [11] using method of characteristics, Fourier and bivariate Laplace transforms.
BANYAN_Sigma: Bayesian classifier for members of young stellar associations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagné, Jonathan; Mamajek, Eric E.; Malo, Lison; Riedel, Adric; Rodriguez, David; Lafrenière, David; Faherty, Jacqueline K.; Roy-Loubier, Olivier; Pueyo, Laurent; Robin, Annie C.; Doyon, René

2018-01-01

BANYAN_Sigma calculates the membership probability that a given astrophysical object belongs to one of the currently known 27 young associations within 150 pc of the Sun, using Bayesian inference. This tool uses the sky position and proper motion measurements of an object, with optional radial velocity (RV) and distance (D) measurements, to derive a Bayesian membership probability. By default, the priors are adjusted such that a probability threshold of 90% will recover 50%, 68%, 82% or 90% of true association members depending on what observables are input (only sky position and proper motion, with RV, with D, with both RV and D, respectively). The algorithm is implemented in a Python package, in IDL, and is also implemented as an interactive web page.
76 FR 19160 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-06

... LLC To Expand the $2.50 Strike Price Program March 31, 2011. Pursuant to Section 19(b)(1) of the... proposes to amend Commentary .07 to NYSE Amex Rule 903 to expand the $2.50 Strike Price Program. The text... expand the current $2.50 Strike Price Program (``Program'')\\3\\ to permit the listing of options with $2...
Real Time Pricing as a Default or Optional Service for C&ICustomers: A Comparative Analysis of Eight Case Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barbose, Galen; Goldman, Charles; Bharvirkar, Ranjit

Demand response (DR) has been broadly recognized to be an integral component of well-functioning electricity markets, although currently underdeveloped in most regions. Among the various initiatives undertaken to remedy this deficiency, public utility commissions (PUC) and utilities have considered implementing dynamic pricing tariffs, such as real-time pricing (RTP), and other retail pricing mechanisms that communicate an incentive for electricity consumers to reduce their usage during periods of high generation supply costs or system reliability contingencies. Efforts to introduce DR into retail electricity markets confront a range of basic policy issues. First, a fundamental issue in any market context is howmore » to organize the process for developing and implementing DR mechanisms in a manner that facilitates productive participation by affected stakeholder groups. Second, in regions with retail choice, policymakers and stakeholders face the threshold question of whether it is appropriate for utilities to offer a range of dynamic pricing tariffs and DR programs, or just ''plain vanilla'' default service. Although positions on this issue may be based primarily on principle, two empirical questions may have some bearing--namely, what level of price response can be expected through the competitive retail market, and whether establishing RTP as the default service is likely to result in an appreciable level of DR? Third, if utilities are to have a direct role in developing DR, what types of retail pricing mechanisms are most appropriate and likely to have the desired policy impact (e.g., RTP, other dynamic pricing options, DR programs, or some combination)? Given a decision to develop utility RTP tariffs, three basic implementation issues require attention. First, should it be a default or optional tariff, and for which customer classes? Second, what types of tariff design is most appropriate, given prevailing policy objectives, wholesale market structure, ratemaking practices and standards, and customer preferences? Third, if a primary goal for RTP implementation is to induce DR, what types of supplemental activities are warranted to support customer participation and price response (e.g., interval metering deployment, customer education, and technical assistance)?« less
77 FR 68172 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-15

... recently approved certain products to trade at $0.50 and $1 strike price intervals on CBOE within exactly... Short Term Option Series (``STOS'') Program that normally trade in $1 Strike Price Intervals shall be [[Page 68173
76 FR 56832 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-14

... entire universe of U.S. options disseminated by the Options Price Reporting Authority (OPRA). The... unique market data to the public. It was believed that this authority would expand the amount of data...
Natural gas and CO2 price variation: impact on the relative cost-efficiency of LNG and pipelines.

PubMed

Ulvestad, Marte; Overland, Indra

2012-06-01

THIS ARTICLE DEVELOPS A FORMAL MODEL FOR COMPARING THE COST STRUCTURE OF THE TWO MAIN TRANSPORT OPTIONS FOR NATURAL GAS: liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipelines. In particular, it evaluates how variations in the prices of natural gas and greenhouse gas emissions affect the relative cost-efficiency of these two options. Natural gas is often promoted as the most environmentally friendly of all fossil fuels, and LNG as a modern and efficient way of transporting it. Some research has been carried out into the local environmental impact of LNG facilities, but almost none into aspects related to climate change. This paper concludes that at current price levels for natural gas and CO 2 emissions the distance from field to consumer and the volume of natural gas transported are the main determinants of transport costs. The pricing of natural gas and greenhouse emissions influence the relative cost-efficiency of LNG and pipeline transport, but only to a limited degree at current price levels. Because more energy is required for the LNG process (especially for fuelling the liquefaction process) than for pipelines at distances below 9100 km, LNG is more exposed to variability in the price of natural gas and greenhouse gas emissions up to this distance. If the prices of natural gas and/or greenhouse gas emission rise dramatically in the future, this will affect the choice between pipelines and LNG. Such a price increase will be favourable for pipelines relative to LNG.
Natural gas and CO2 price variation: impact on the relative cost-efficiency of LNG and pipelines

PubMed Central

Ulvestad, Marte; Overland, Indra

2012-01-01

This article develops a formal model for comparing the cost structure of the two main transport options for natural gas: liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipelines. In particular, it evaluates how variations in the prices of natural gas and greenhouse gas emissions affect the relative cost-efficiency of these two options. Natural gas is often promoted as the most environmentally friendly of all fossil fuels, and LNG as a modern and efficient way of transporting it. Some research has been carried out into the local environmental impact of LNG facilities, but almost none into aspects related to climate change. This paper concludes that at current price levels for natural gas and CO2 emissions the distance from field to consumer and the volume of natural gas transported are the main determinants of transport costs. The pricing of natural gas and greenhouse emissions influence the relative cost-efficiency of LNG and pipeline transport, but only to a limited degree at current price levels. Because more energy is required for the LNG process (especially for fuelling the liquefaction process) than for pipelines at distances below 9100 km, LNG is more exposed to variability in the price of natural gas and greenhouse gas emissions up to this distance. If the prices of natural gas and/or greenhouse gas emission rise dramatically in the future, this will affect the choice between pipelines and LNG. Such a price increase will be favourable for pipelines relative to LNG. PMID:24683269
A Methodology for Improving the Shipyard Planning Process: Using KVA Analysis, Risk Simulation and Strategic Real Options

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-30

allocated to intangible assets. With Proctor & Gamble’s $53.5 billion acquisition of Gillette , $31.5 billion or 59% of the total purchase price was... outsourcing , alliances, joint ventures) • Compound Option (platform options) • Sequential Options (stage-gate development, R&D, phased...Comparisons • RO/KVA could enhance outsourcing comparisons between the Government’s Most Efficient Organization (MEO) and private-sector
76 FR 71413 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-17

....00 (for options whose underlying stock's previous trading day's last sale price was less than or equal to $100) and between $0.10 and $5.00 (for options whose underlying stock's previous trading day's... the time for series trading between $0.03 and $5.00 (for options whose underlying stock's previous...
75 FR 27605 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-17

... Rule Change Relating to One Cent Strike Price Intervals of Foreign Currency Options May 7, 2010... cent ($0.01) for each expiration month for U.S. dollar-settled foreign currency options (``FCOs'') opened for trading on the Exchange.\\3\\ \\3\\ FCOs are also known as World Currency Options (``WCOs...
78 FR 28669 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BATS Exchange, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-15

... ``Options Pricing'' section of its fee schedule effective immediately, in order to (i) increase fees for any...'') thresholds. The Exchange offers a bulk-quoting interface which allows Users \\6\\ of BATS Options to submit and... receipt. The bulk-quoting application for BATS Options is a particularly useful feature for Users that...
Policy options for alcohol price regulation: the importance of modelling population heterogeneity.

PubMed

Meier, Petra Sylvia; Purshouse, Robin; Brennan, Alan

2010-03-01

Context and aims Internationally, the repertoire of alcohol pricing policies has expanded to include targeted taxation, inflation-linked taxation, taxation based on alcohol-by-volume (ABV), minimum pricing policies (general or targeted), bans of below-cost selling and restricting price-based promotions. Policy makers clearly need to consider how options compare in reducing harms at the population level, but are also required to demonstrate proportionality of their actions, which necessitates a detailed understanding of policy effects on different population subgroups. This paper presents selected findings from a policy appraisal for the UK government and discusses the importance of accounting for population heterogeneity in such analyses. Method We have built a causal, deterministic, epidemiological model which takes account of differential preferences by population subgroups defined by age, gender and level of drinking (moderate, hazardous, harmful). We consider purchasing preferences in terms of the types and volumes of alcoholic beverages, prices paid and the balance between bars, clubs and restaurants as opposed to supermarkets and off-licenses. Results Age, sex and level of drinking fundamentally affect beverage preferences, drinking location, prices paid, price sensitivity and tendency to substitute for other beverage types. Pricing policies vary in their impact on different product types, price points and venues, thus having distinctly different effects on subgroups. Because population subgroups also have substantially different risk profiles for harms, policies are differentially effective in reducing health, crime, work-place absence and unemployment harms. Conclusion Policy appraisals must account for population heterogeneity and complexity if resulting interventions are to be well considered, proportionate, effective and cost-effective.
A non-Gaussian option pricing model based on Kaniadakis exponential deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moretto, Enrico; Pasquali, Sara; Trivellato, Barbara

2017-09-01

A way to make financial models effective is by letting them to represent the so called "fat tails", i.e., extreme changes in stock prices that are regarded as almost impossible by the standard Gaussian distribution. In this article, the Kaniadakis deformation of the usual exponential function is used to define a random noise source in the dynamics of price processes capable of capturing such real market phenomena.

An analysis of strategic price setting in retail gasoline markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaureguiberry, Florencia

This dissertation studies price-setting behavior in the retail gasoline industry. The main questions addressed are: How important is a retail station's brand and proximity to competitors when retail stations set price? How do retailers adjust their pricing when they cater to consumers who are less aware of competing options or have less discretion over where they purchase gasoline? These questions are explored in two separate analyses using a unique datasets containing retail pricing behavior of stations in California and in 24 different metropolitan areas. The evidence suggests that brand and location generate local market power for gasoline stations. After controlling for market and station characteristics, the analysis finds a spread of 11 cents per gallon between the highest and the lowest priced retail gasoline brands. The analysis also indicates that when the nearest competitor is located over 2 miles away as opposed to next door, consumers will pay an additional 1 cent per gallon of gasoline. In order to quantify the significance of local market power, data for stations located near major airport rental car locations are utilized. The presumption here is that rental car users are less aware or less sensitive to fueling options near the rental car return location and are to some extent "captured consumers". Retailers located near rental car locations have incentives to adjust their pricing strategies to exploit this. The analysis of pricing near rental car locations indicates that retailers charge prices that are 4 cent per gallon higher than other stations in the same metropolitan area. This analysis is of interest to regulators who are concerned with issues of consolidation, market power, and pricing in the retail gasoline industry. This dissertation concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of the empirical analysis.
48 CFR 52.212-2 - Evaluation-Commercial Items.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... compared to price.) (b) Options. The Government will evaluate offers for award purposes by adding the total... provision substantially as follows: Evaluation—Commercial Items (JAN 1999) (a) The Government will award a... solicitation will be most advantageous to the Government, price and other factors considered. The following...
Developing Portfolios of Water Supply Transfers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Characklis, G. W.; Kirsch, B. R.; Ramsey, J.; Dillard, K. E.; Kelley, C. T.

2005-12-01

Most cities rely on firm water supply capacity to meet demand, but increasing scarcity and supply costs are encouraging greater use of temporary transfers (e.g., spot leases, options). This raises questions regarding how best to coordinate the use of these transfers in meeting cost and reliability objectives. This work combines a hydrologic-water market simulation with an optimization approach to identify portfolios of permanent rights, options and leases that minimize expected costs of meeting a city's annual demand with a specified reliability. Spot market prices are linked to hydrologic conditions and described by monthly lease price distributions which are used to price options via a risk neutral approach. Monthly choices regarding when and how much water to acquire through temporary transfers are made on the basis of anticipatory decision rules related to the ratio of expected supply-to-expected demand. The simulation is linked with an algorithm that uses an implicit filtering search method designed for solution surfaces that exhibit high frequency, low amplitude noise. This simulation-optimization approach is applied to a region that currently supports an active water market, with results suggesting that the use of temporary transfers can reduce expected water supply costs substantially, while still maintaining high reliability levels. Also evaluated are tradeoffs between expected costs and cost variability that occur with variation in a portfolio's distribution of rights, options and leases. While this work represents firm supply capacity as permanent water rights, a similar approach could be used to develop portfolios integrating options and/or leases with hard supply infrastructure.
The welfare effects of raising household energy prices in Poland

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Freund, C.L.; Wallich, C.I.

1996-06-01

We examine the welfare effects from increasing household energy prices in Poland. Subsidizing household energy prices, common in the transition economies, is shown to be highly regressive. The wealthy spend a larger portion of their income on energy and consume more energy in absolute terms. We therefore rule out the oft-used social welfare argument for delaying household energy price increases. Raising prices, while targeting relief to the poor through a social assistance program is the first-best response. However, if governments want to ease the adjustment, several options are open, including: in-kind transfers to the poor, vouchers, in-cash transfers, and lifelinemore » pricing for electricity. Our simulations show that if raising prices to efficient levels is not politically feasible at present and social assistance targeting is sufficiently weak, it may be socially better to use lifeline pricing and a large price increase than an overall, but smaller, price increase.« less
Using economic policy to tackle chronic disease: options for the Australian Government.

PubMed

Kaplin, Lauren; Thow, Anne Marie

2013-03-01

Australia suffers from one of the highest prevalences among developed countries of persons being overweight and obese, these conditions arising from the overconsumption of energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods that are generally less expensive than healthier options. One potential avenue for intervention is to influence the price of foods such that healthier options are less expensive and, therefore, are an easier choice to make. This article considers the potential for fiscal policies that would realign food prices with health incentives. Through a review of consumption taxes, consumer subsidies, trade policies, agricultural support policies, and other incentive programs as possible avenues for intervention, this article asks what the Commonwealth Government has already done to help improve Australian diets, and looks at where further improvements could be made.
Essays in the Application of Linear and Non-linear Bayesian VAR Models to the Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Price Shocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Bao H.

This thesis is a collection of five self contained empirical macroeconomic papers on the asymmetric effects of energy price shocks on various economies. Chapter 1 formally determines the number of regime changes in the US natural gas market by employing a MS-VAR model. Estimated using Bayesian methods, three regimes are identified for the period 1980 - 2016, namely, before the Decontrol Act, after the Decontrol Act and the Recession. The results show that the natural gas market tends to be much more sensitive to market fundamental shocks occurring in a Recession regime than in the other regimes. Augmenting the model by incorporating the price of crude oil, the results reveal that the impacts of oil price shocks on natural gas prices are relatively small. Chapter 2 provides new empirical evidence on the asymmetric reactions of the U.S. natural gas market and the U.S. economy to its market fundamental shocks in different phases of the business cycle. To this end, we employ a ST-VAR model to capture the asymmetric responses depending on economic conditions. Our results indicate that in contrast to the prediction made by a linear VAR model, the STVAR model provides a plausible explanation to the behavior of the U.S. natural gas market, which asymmetrically reacts in bad times and good times. Chapter 3 examines the relationship between China's economic growth and global oil market fluctuations between 1992Q1 and 2015Q3. We find that: (1) the time varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility provides a better fit as compared to it's constant counterparts; (2) the impacts of intertemporal global oil price shocks on China's output are often small and temporary in nature; (3) oil supply and specific oil demand shocks generally produce negative movements in China's GDP growth whilst oil demand shocks tend to have positive effects; (4) domestic output shocks have no significant impact on price or quantity movements within the global oil market. Chapter 4 examines the effects of world energy price shocks on China's macroeconomy. We propose a new index of primary commodity energy prices which accurately reflects both the structure of China's energy expenditure shares, as well as intertemporal fluctuations in international energy prices. The index is then in employed a sufficiently rich set of time varying BVARs, identified by a new set of agnostic sign restrictions. Uniformly sized positive energy price shocks are shown to consistently generate economic stagflation over the past two decades. Chapter 5 compares the macroeconomic effects of global oil and iron ore price shocks on the Australian economy. The main results suggest that, over the period 1990Q1 to 2014Q4, the oil shock has a relative larger impact than that of the iron ore shock on output and inflation while the iron ore shock is the dominant source of interest and exchange rate movements. The effects crucially depend on the underlying sources of oil or iron ore price shifts.
Perceptions on the use of pricing strategies to stimulate healthy eating among residents of deprived neighbourhoods: a focus group study

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Pricing strategies are mentioned frequently as a potentially effective tool to stimulate healthy eating, mainly for consumers with a low socio-economic status. Still, it is not known how these consumers perceive pricing strategies, which pricing strategies are favoured and what contextual factors are important in achieving the anticipated effects. Methods We conducted seven focus groups among 59 residents of deprived neighbourhoods in two large Dutch cities. The focus group topics were based on insights from Rogers' Diffusion of Innovations Theory and consisted of four parts: 1) discussion on factors in food selection; 2) attitudes and perceptions towards food prices; 3) thinking up pricing strategies; 4) attitudes and perceptions regarding nine pricing strategies that were nominated by experts in a former Delphi Study. Analyses were conducted with Atlas.ti 5.2 computer software, using the framework approach. Results Qualitative analyses revealed that this group of consumers consider price to be a core factor in food choice and that they experience financial barriers against buying certain foods. Price was also experienced as a proficient tool to stimulate healthier food choices. Yet, consumers indicated that significant effects could only be achieved by combining price with information and promotion techniques. In general, pricing strategies focusing on encouraging healthy eating were valued to be more helpful than pricing strategies which focused on discouraging unhealthy eating. Suggested high reward strategies were: reducing the price of healthier options of comparable products (e.g., whole meal bread) compared to unhealthier options (e.g., white bread); providing a healthy food discount card for low-income groups; and combining price discounts on healthier foods with other marketing techniques such as displaying cheap and healthy foods at the cash desk. Conclusion This focus group study provides important new insights regarding the use of pricing strategies to stimulate healthy eating. The observed perceptions and attitudes of residents of deprived neighbourhoods can be integrated into future experimental studies and be used to reveal if and how pricing strategies are effective in stimulating healthy eating. PMID:20482857
Perceptions on the use of pricing strategies to stimulate healthy eating among residents of deprived neighbourhoods: a focus group study.

PubMed

Waterlander, Wilma E; de Mul, Anika; Schuit, Albertine J; Seidell, Jacob C; Steenhuis, Ingrid Hm

2010-05-19

Pricing strategies are mentioned frequently as a potentially effective tool to stimulate healthy eating, mainly for consumers with a low socio-economic status. Still, it is not known how these consumers perceive pricing strategies, which pricing strategies are favoured and what contextual factors are important in achieving the anticipated effects. We conducted seven focus groups among 59 residents of deprived neighbourhoods in two large Dutch cities. The focus group topics were based on insights from Rogers' Diffusion of Innovations Theory and consisted of four parts: 1) discussion on factors in food selection; 2) attitudes and perceptions towards food prices; 3) thinking up pricing strategies; 4) attitudes and perceptions regarding nine pricing strategies that were nominated by experts in a former Delphi Study. Analyses were conducted with Atlas.ti 5.2 computer software, using the framework approach. Qualitative analyses revealed that this group of consumers consider price to be a core factor in food choice and that they experience financial barriers against buying certain foods. Price was also experienced as a proficient tool to stimulate healthier food choices. Yet, consumers indicated that significant effects could only be achieved by combining price with information and promotion techniques. In general, pricing strategies focusing on encouraging healthy eating were valued to be more helpful than pricing strategies which focused on discouraging unhealthy eating. Suggested high reward strategies were: reducing the price of healthier options of comparable products (e.g., whole meal bread) compared to unhealthier options (e.g., white bread); providing a healthy food discount card for low-income groups; and combining price discounts on healthier foods with other marketing techniques such as displaying cheap and healthy foods at the cash desk. This focus group study provides important new insights regarding the use of pricing strategies to stimulate healthy eating. The observed perceptions and attitudes of residents of deprived neighbourhoods can be integrated into future experimental studies and be used to reveal if and how pricing strategies are effective in stimulating healthy eating.
Financial methods in competitive electricity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Shijie

The restructuring of electric power industry has become a global trend. As reforms to the electricity supply industry spread rapidly across countries and states, many political and economical issues arise as a result of people debating over which approach to adopt in restructuring the vertically integrated electricity industry. This dissertation addresses issues of transmission pricing, electricity spot price modeling, as well as risk management and asset valuation in a competitive electricity industry. A major concern in the restructuring of the electricity industries is the design of a transmission pricing scheme that will ensure open-access to the transmission networks. I propose a priority-pricing scheme for zonal access to the electric power grid that is uniform across all buses in each zone. The Independent System Operator (ISO) charges bulk power traders a per unit ex ante transmission access fee based on the expected option value of the generated power with respect to the random zonal spot prices. The zonal access fee depends on the injection zone and a self-selected strike price determining the scheduling priority of the transaction. Inter zonal transactions are charged (or credited) with an additional ex post congestion fee that equals the zonal spot price difference. The unit access fee entitles a bulk power trader to either physical injection of one unit of energy or a compensation payment that equals to the difference between the realized zonal spot price and the selected strike price. The ISO manages congestion so as to minimize net compensation payments and thus, curtailment probabilities corresponding to a particular strike price may vary by bus. The rest of the dissertation deals with the issues of modeling electricity spot prices, pricing electricity financial instruments and the corresponding risk management applications. Modeling the spot prices of electricity is important for the market participants who need to understand the risk factors in pricing electricity financial instruments such as electricity forwards, options and cross-commodity derivatives. It is also essential for the analysis of financial risk management, asset valuation, and project financing. In the setting of diffusion processes with multiple types of jumps, I examine three mean-reversion models for modeling the electricity spot prices. I impose some structure on the coefficients of the diffusion processes, which allows me to easily compute the prices of contingent claims (or, financial instruments) on electricity by Fourier methods. I derive the pricing formulas for various electricity derivatives and examine how the prices vary with different modeling assumptions. I demonstrate a couple of risk management applications of the electricity financial instruments. I also construct a real options approach to value electric power generation and transmission assets both with and without accounting for the operating characteristics of the assets. The implications of the mean-reversion jump-diffusion models on financial risk management and real asset valuation in competitive electricity markets are illustrated. With a discrete trinomial lattice modeling the underlying commodity prices, I estimate the effects of operational characteristics on the asset valuation by means of numerical examples that incorporate these aspects using stochastic dynamic programming. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)
Diverging Influences of Money Priming on Choice.

PubMed

Kim, Hee Jin

2017-01-01

Prior research on money priming has suggested two seemingly contradicting findings. On the one hand, money has been shown to highlight the importance of cost saving, leading to the choice of a low-quality/low-price option. On the other hand, individuals primed with money as a symbol of social status, and capabilities may focus on social value of money, e.g., higher spending symbolizes higher status and prefer an option with high quality/high price. Current research proposes and demonstrates that whether money priming will lead different choices depends on the nature of the consumption context. Specifically, when the product is to be consumed privately, money priming will highlight the importance of cost, thus increasing the preference for lower price at a lower quality. However, when the product is to be consumed publicly, reversed pattern of consumer preference will be found.
Determinants of orphan drugs prices in France: a regression analysis.

PubMed

Korchagina, Daria; Millier, Aurelie; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Aballea, Samuel; Falissard, Bruno; Toumi, Mondher

2017-04-21

The introduction of the orphan drug legislation led to the increase in the number of available orphan drugs, but the access to them is often limited due to the high price. Social preferences regarding funding orphan drugs as well as the criteria taken into consideration while setting the price remain unclear. The study aimed at identifying the determinant of orphan drug prices in France using a regression analysis. All drugs with a valid orphan designation at the moment of launch for which the price was available in France were included in the analysis. The selection of covariates was based on a literature review and included drug characteristics (Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) class, treatment line, age of target population), diseases characteristics (severity, prevalence, availability of alternative therapeutic options), health technology assessment (HTA) details (actual benefit (AB) and improvement in actual benefit (IAB) scores, delay between the HTA and commercialisation), and study characteristics (type of study, comparator, type of endpoint). The main data sources were European public assessment reports, HTA reports, summaries of opinion on orphan designation of the European Medicines Agency, and the French insurance database of drugs and tariffs. A generalized regression model was developed to test the association between the annual treatment cost and selected covariates. A total of 68 drugs were included. The mean annual treatment cost was €96,518. In the univariate analysis, the ATC class (p = 0.01), availability of alternative treatment options (p = 0.02) and the prevalence (p = 0.02) showed a significant correlation with the annual cost. The multivariate analysis demonstrated significant association between the annual cost and availability of alternative treatment options, ATC class, IAB score, type of comparator in the pivotal clinical trial, as well as commercialisation date and delay between the HTA and commercialisation. The orphan drug pricing is a multivariate phenomenon. The complex association between drug prices and the studied attributes and shows that payers integrate multiple variables in decision making when setting orphan drug prices. The interpretation of the study results is limited by the small sample size and the complex data structure.
Risk management with substitution options: Valuing flexibility in small-scale energy systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knapp, Karl Eric

Several features of small-scale energy systems make them more easily adapted to a changing operating environment than large centralized designs. This flexibility is often manifested as the ability to substitute inputs. This research explores the value of this substitution flexibility and the marginal value of becoming a "little more flexible" in the context of real project investment in developing countries. The elasticity of substitution is proposed as a stylized measure of flexibility and a choice variable. A flexible alternative (elasticity > 0) can be thought of as holding a fixed-proportions "nflexible" asset plus a sequence of exchange options---the option to move to another feasible "recipe" each period. Substitutability derives value from following a contour of anticipated variations and from responding to new information. Substitutability value, a "cost savings option", increases with elasticity and price risk. However, the required premium to incrementally increase flexibility can in some cases decrease with an increase in risk. Variance is not always a measure of risk. Tools from stochastic dominance are newly applied to real options with convex payoffs to correct some misperceptions and clarify many common modeling situations that meet the criteria for increased variance to imply increased risk. The behavior of the cost savings option is explored subject to a stochastic input price process. At the point where costs are identical for all alternatives, the stochastic process for cost savings becomes deterministic, with savings directly proportional to elasticity of substitution and price variance. The option is also formulated as a derivative security via dynamic programming. The partial differential equation is solved for the special case of Cobb-Douglas (elasticity = 1) (also shown are linear (infinite elasticity), Leontief (elasticity = 0)). Risk aversion is insufficient to prefer a more flexible alternative with the same expected value. Intertemporal links convert the sequence of independent options to a single compound option and require an expansion of the flexibility concept. Additional options increase the value of the project but generally decrease flexibility value. The framework is applied to case study in India: an urban industry electricity strategy decision with reliability risk.
78 FR 16726 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-18

... Price, Managing Director, Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, dated October 4, 2012... other industry professionals will have difficulty pricing options during Limit States and Straddle... conditions have changed and (ii) gaming the obvious error rule to retroactively adjust market maker quotes by...
7 CFR 245.9 - Special assistance certification and reimbursement alternatives.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... REDUCED PRICE MEALS AND FREE MILK IN SCHOOLS § 245.9 Special assistance certification and reimbursement... children determined eligible for free or reduced price meals may, at its option, authorize the school to reduce annual certification and public notification for those children eligible for free meals to once...
7 CFR 245.9 - Special assistance certification and reimbursement alternatives.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... REDUCED PRICE MEALS AND FREE MILK IN SCHOOLS § 245.9 Special assistance certification and reimbursement... children determined eligible for free or reduced price meals may, at its option, authorize the school to reduce annual certification and public notification for those children eligible for free meals to once...
Bayesian analysis of caustic-crossing microlensing events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassan, A.; Horne, K.; Kains, N.; Tsapras, Y.; Browne, P.

2010-06-01

Aims: Caustic-crossing binary-lens microlensing events are important anomalous events because they are capable of detecting an extrasolar planet companion orbiting the lens star. Fast and robust modelling methods are thus of prime interest in helping to decide whether a planet is detected by an event. Cassan introduced a new set of parameters to model binary-lens events, which are closely related to properties of the light curve. In this work, we explain how Bayesian priors can be added to this framework, and investigate on interesting options. Methods: We develop a mathematical formulation that allows us to compute analytically the priors on the new parameters, given some previous knowledge about other physical quantities. We explicitly compute the priors for a number of interesting cases, and show how this can be implemented in a fully Bayesian, Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Results: Using Bayesian priors can accelerate microlens fitting codes by reducing the time spent considering physically implausible models, and helps us to discriminate between alternative models based on the physical plausibility of their parameters.
NASA policy on pricing shuttle launch services

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, J. M.

1977-01-01

The paper explains the rationale behind key elements of the pricing policy for STS, the major features of the non-government user policy, and some of the stimulating features of the policy which will open space to a wide range of new users. Attention is given to such major policy features as payment schedule, cost and standard services, the two phase pricing structure, optional services, shared flights, cancellation and postponement, and earnest money.
78 FR 4919 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Order Instituting Proceedings To Determine...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-23

... respective barrier price, a cash settlement payment in an amount equal to the difference between the strike... options sold, then decremented by cash settlements of any down-and-in put options expiring in-the-money... end of the previous quarter; Option Value is the settlement value of each of the 20 down-and-in put...
77 FR 44291 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Order Granting Approval of Proposed Rule Change...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-27

... volatility. On the day of the monthly expiration of VIX call options, previously purchased VIX call options are cash-settled, and new VIX call options are purchased at the 10 a.m., Central Time asking price... Index. \\9\\ Tail hedging, in the context used by the Index Provider, is the practice of trying to hedge...
76 FR 59754 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; C2 Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-27

... priority allocation algorithm for the SPXPM option class,\\5\\ subject to certain conditions. \\5\\ SPXPM is... algorithm in effect for the class, subject to various conditions set forth in subparagraphs (b)(3)(A... permit the allocation algorithm in effect for AIM in the SPXPM option class to be the price-time priority...

76 FR 72490 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX BX, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-23

... Program. \\6\\ However, if BOX opens less than twenty (20) short term options for a Short Term Option... maintain an orderly market, to meet customer demand or when the market price of the underlying security... number of classes is customer demand for adding, or not removing, short term option classes from the...
Valuation of buyout options in comprehensive development agreements : final report, December 2009.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-12-01

This project investigates the feasibility of and develops an economic valuation model for buyout options in : Comprehensive Development Agreements (CDAs). A CDA is a form of public-private partnership in which : the right to price and collect revenue...
A win-win solution?: A critical analysis of tiered pricing to improve access to medicines in developing countries.

PubMed

Moon, Suerie; Jambert, Elodie; Childs, Michelle; von Schoen-Angerer, Tido

2011-10-12

Tiered pricing - the concept of selling drugs and vaccines in developing countries at prices systematically lower than in industrialized countries - has received widespread support from industry, policymakers, civil society, and academics as a way to improve access to medicines for the poor. We carried out case studies based on a review of international drug price developments for antiretrovirals, artemisinin combination therapies, drug-resistant tuberculosis medicines, liposomal amphotericin B (for visceral leishmaniasis), and pneumococcal vaccines. We found several critical shortcomings to tiered pricing: it is inferior to competition for achieving the lowest sustainable prices; it often involves arbitrary divisions between markets and/or countries, which can lead to very high prices for middle-income markets; and it leaves a disproportionate amount of decision-making power in the hands of sellers vis-à-vis consumers. In many developing countries, resources are often stretched so tight that affordability can only be approached by selling medicines at or near the cost of production. Policies that "de-link" the financing of R&D from the price of medicines merit further attention, since they can reward innovation while exploiting robust competition in production to generate the lowest sustainable prices. However, in special cases - such as when market volumes are very small or multi-source production capacity is lacking - tiered pricing may offer the only practical option to meet short-term needs for access to a product. In such cases, steps should be taken to ensure affordability and availability in the longer-term. To ensure access to medicines for populations in need, alternate strategies should be explored that harness the power of competition, avoid arbitrary market segmentation, and/or recognize government responsibilities. Competition should generally be the default option for achieving affordability, as it has proven superior to tiered pricing for reliably achieving the lowest sustainable prices.
A win-win solution?: A critical analysis of tiered pricing to improve access to medicines in developing countries

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Tiered pricing - the concept of selling drugs and vaccines in developing countries at prices systematically lower than in industrialized countries - has received widespread support from industry, policymakers, civil society, and academics as a way to improve access to medicines for the poor. We carried out case studies based on a review of international drug price developments for antiretrovirals, artemisinin combination therapies, drug-resistant tuberculosis medicines, liposomal amphotericin B (for visceral leishmaniasis), and pneumococcal vaccines. Discussion We found several critical shortcomings to tiered pricing: it is inferior to competition for achieving the lowest sustainable prices; it often involves arbitrary divisions between markets and/or countries, which can lead to very high prices for middle-income markets; and it leaves a disproportionate amount of decision-making power in the hands of sellers vis-à-vis consumers. In many developing countries, resources are often stretched so tight that affordability can only be approached by selling medicines at or near the cost of production. Policies that "de-link" the financing of R&D from the price of medicines merit further attention, since they can reward innovation while exploiting robust competition in production to generate the lowest sustainable prices. However, in special cases - such as when market volumes are very small or multi-source production capacity is lacking - tiered pricing may offer the only practical option to meet short-term needs for access to a product. In such cases, steps should be taken to ensure affordability and availability in the longer-term. Summary To ensure access to medicines for populations in need, alternate strategies should be explored that harness the power of competition, avoid arbitrary market segmentation, and/or recognize government responsibilities. Competition should generally be the default option for achieving affordability, as it has proven superior to tiered pricing for reliably achieving the lowest sustainable prices. PMID:21992405
Implied adjusted volatility functions: Empirical evidence from Australian index option market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harun, Hanani Farhah; Hafizah, Mimi

2015-02-01

This study aims to investigate the implied adjusted volatility functions using the different Leland option pricing models and to assess whether the use of the specified implied adjusted volatility function can lead to an improvement in option valuation accuracy. The implied adjusted volatility is investigated in the context of Standard and Poor/Australian Stock Exchange (S&P/ASX) 200 index options over the course of 2001-2010, which covers the global financial crisis in the mid-2007 until the end of 2008. Both in- and out-of-sample resulted in approximately similar pricing error along the different Leland models. Results indicate that symmetric and asymmetric models of both moneyness ratio and logarithmic transformation of moneyness provide the overall best result in both during and post-crisis periods. We find that in the different period of interval (pre-, during and post-crisis) is subject to a different implied adjusted volatility function which best explains the index options. Hence, it is tremendously important to identify the intervals beforehand in investigating the implied adjusted volatility function.
War-gaming application for future space systems acquisition part 2: acquisition and bidding war-gaming modeling and simulation approaches for FFP and FPIF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Tien M.; Guillen, Andy T.

2017-05-01

This paper describes cooperative and non-cooperative static Bayesian game models with complete and incomplete information for the development of optimum acquisition strategies associated with the Program and Technical Baseline (PTB) solutions obtained from Part 1 of this paper [1]. The optimum acquisition strategies discussed focus on achieving "Affordability" by incorporating contractors' bidding strategies into the government acquisition strategies for acquiring future space systems. The paper discusses System Engineering (SE) frameworks, analytical and simulation approaches and modeling for developing the optimum acquisition strategies from both the government and contractor perspectives for Firm Fixed Price (FFP) and Fixed Price Incentive Firm (FPIF) contract types.
Interdependence between crude oil and world food prices: A detrended cross correlation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, Debdatta; Mitra, Subrata K.

2018-02-01

This article explores the changing interdependence between crude oil and world food prices at varying time scales using detrended cross correlation analysis that would answer whether the interdependence (if any) differed significantly between pre and post-crisis period. Unlike the previous studies that exogenously imposed break dates for dividing the time series into sub-samples, we tested whether the mean of the crude oil price changed over time to find evidence for structural changes in the crude oil price series and endogenously determine three break dates with minimum Bayesian information criterion scores. Accordingly, we divided the entire study period in four sample periods - January 1990 to October 1999, November 1999 to February 2005, March 2005 to September 2010, and October 2010 to July 2016, where the third sample period coincided with the period of food crisis and enabled us to compare the fuel-food interdependence across pre-crisis, during the crisis, and post-crisis periods. The results of the detrended cross correlation analysis extended corroborative evidence for increasing positive interdependence between the crude oil price and world food price index along with its sub-categories, namely dairy, cereals, vegetable oil, and sugar. The article ends with the implications of these results in the domain of food policy and the financial sector.
Half-size me? How calorie and price information influence ordering on restaurant menus with both half and full entrée portion sizes.

PubMed

Haws, Kelly L; Liu, Peggy J

2016-02-01

Many restaurants are increasingly required to display calorie information on their menus. We present a study examining how consumers' food choices are affected by the presence of calorie information on restaurant menus. However, unlike prior research on this topic, we focus on the effect of calorie information on food choices made from a menu that contains both full size portions and half size portions of entrées. This different focus is important because many restaurants increasingly provide more than one portion size option per entrée. Additionally, we examine whether the impact of calorie information differs depending on whether full portions are cheaper per unit than half portions (non-linear pricing) or whether they have a similar per unit price (linear pricing). We find that when linear pricing is used, calorie information leads people to order fewer calories. This decrease occurs as people switch from unhealthy full sized portions to healthy full sized portions, not to unhealthy half sized portions. In contrast, when non-linear pricing is used, calorie information has no impact on calories selected. Considering the impact of calorie information on consumers' choices from menus with more than one entrée portion size option is increasingly important given restaurant and legislative trends, and the present research demonstrates that calorie information and pricing scheme may interact to affect choices from such menus. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Performance Evaluation of Expert Team Members

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-18

perspectives on organ donation: The reason for the shortage. Colloquium presented at the Department of Nursing and Midwifery , University of Stirling...November 2005. Weiss, J. W., Weiss, D. J., & Edwards, W. Sex, drugs , and gluttony: Everyday options. Paper presented at the Bayesian Research Conference
Approaches in highly parameterized inversion: bgaPEST, a Bayesian geostatistical approach implementation with PEST: documentation and instructions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fienen, Michael N.; D'Oria, Marco; Doherty, John E.; Hunt, Randall J.

2013-01-01

The application bgaPEST is a highly parameterized inversion software package implementing the Bayesian Geostatistical Approach in a framework compatible with the parameter estimation suite PEST. Highly parameterized inversion refers to cases in which parameters are distributed in space or time and are correlated with one another. The Bayesian aspect of bgaPEST is related to Bayesian probability theory in which prior information about parameters is formally revised on the basis of the calibration dataset used for the inversion. Conceptually, this approach formalizes the conditionality of estimated parameters on the speciﬁc data and model available. The geostatistical component of the method refers to the way in which prior information about the parameters is used. A geostatistical autocorrelation function is used to enforce structure on the parameters to avoid overﬁtting and unrealistic results. Bayesian Geostatistical Approach is designed to provide the smoothest solution that is consistent with the data. Optionally, users can specify a level of ﬁt or estimate a balance between ﬁt and model complexity informed by the data. Groundwater and surface-water applications are used as examples in this text, but the possible uses of bgaPEST extend to any distributed parameter applications.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Siddiqui, Afzal; Marnay, Chris

This paper examines a California-based microgrid s decision to invest in a distributed generation (DG) unit that operates on natural gas. While the long-term natural gas generation cost is stochastic, we initially assume that the microgrid may purchase electricity at a fixed retail rate from its utility. Using the real options approach, we find natural gas generating cost thresholds that trigger DG investment. Furthermore, the consideration of operational flexibility by the microgrid accelerates DG investment, while the option to disconnect entirely from the utility is not attractive. By allowing the electricity price to be stochastic, we next determine an investmentmore » threshold boundary and find that high electricity price volatility relative to that of natural gas generating cost delays investment while simultaneously increasing the value of the investment. We conclude by using this result to find the implicit option value of the DG unit.« less
Stochastic volatility models and Kelvin waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipton, Alex; Sepp, Artur

2008-08-01

We use stochastic volatility models to describe the evolution of an asset price, its instantaneous volatility and its realized volatility. In particular, we concentrate on the Stein and Stein model (SSM) (1991) for the stochastic asset volatility and the Heston model (HM) (1993) for the stochastic asset variance. By construction, the volatility is not sign definite in SSM and is non-negative in HM. It is well known that both models produce closed-form expressions for the prices of vanilla option via the Lewis-Lipton formula. However, the numerical pricing of exotic options by means of the finite difference and Monte Carlo methods is much more complex for HM than for SSM. Until now, this complexity was considered to be an acceptable price to pay for ensuring that the asset volatility is non-negative. We argue that having negative stochastic volatility is a psychological rather than financial or mathematical problem, and advocate using SSM rather than HM in most applications. We extend SSM by adding volatility jumps and obtain a closed-form expression for the density of the asset price and its realized volatility. We also show that the current method of choice for solving pricing problems with stochastic volatility (via the affine ansatz for the Fourier-transformed density function) can be traced back to the Kelvin method designed in the 19th century for studying wave motion problems arising in fluid dynamics.
Current Research on Molasses as an Alternative Energy Source for Organic Dairy Herds

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As organic grain prices have increased and organic milk prices have decreased, dairy farmers are seeking lower-cost supplementation strategies. Sugarcane molasses, a rich source of sucrose, seems to be a viable option as a source of energy. Molasses frequently costs less per pound of dry matter than...
12 CFR 932.5 - Market risk capital requirement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 932.5 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND..., commodity prices, and equity prices that could occur during periods of market stress, where the market value... options, to a comparable degree of stress for such factors as will be required for an internal market risk...
12 CFR 932.5 - Market risk capital requirement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 932.5 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND..., commodity prices, and equity prices that could occur during periods of market stress, where the market value... options, to a comparable degree of stress for such factors as will be required for an internal market risk...
12 CFR 932.5 - Market risk capital requirement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 932.5 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND..., commodity prices, and equity prices that could occur during periods of market stress, where the market value... options, to a comparable degree of stress for such factors as will be required for an internal market risk...
12 CFR 932.5 - Market risk capital requirement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 932.5 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND..., commodity prices, and equity prices that could occur during periods of market stress, where the market value... options, to a comparable degree of stress for such factors as will be required for an internal market risk...
The Top Six Compatibles: A Closer Look at the Machines That Are Most Compatible with the IBM PC.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McMullen, Barbara E.; And Others

1984-01-01

Reviews six operationally compatible microcomputers that are most able to run IBM software without modifications--Compaq, Columbia, Corona, Hyperion, Eagle PC, and Chameleon. Information given for each includes manufacturer, uses, standard features, base list price, typical system price, and options and accessories. (MBR)
76 FR 4400 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX BX, Inc.; Order Approving a Proposed Rule Change...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-25

... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Release No. 34-63731; File No. SR-BX-2010-083] Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX BX, Inc.; Order Approving a Proposed Rule Change Relating to the Price Improvement... (``BOX'') to permit an Options Participant initiating a Price Improvement Period (``PIP'') to designate a...
76 FR 49824 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-11

... competition and affords the opportunity for price improvement to more options contracts. B. Self-Regulatory... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Release No. 34-65043; File No. SR-Phlx-2011-104] Self... Change Relating to the Extension of a Pilot Program Regarding Price Improvement XL August 5, 2011...

78 FR 66980 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BOX Options Exchange LLC; Notice of Designation of Longer Period...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-07

... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Release No. 34-70797; File No. SR-BOX-2013-43] Self-Regulatory... Proposed Rule Change To Permit Complex Orders To Participate in Price Improvement Periods November 1, 2013... to permit Complex Orders to participate in Price Improvement Periods (the ``COPIP'') and to make...
75 FR 5157 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BATS Exchange, Inc.; Notice of Filing of Amendment No. 1 and Order...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-01

.... 1, the Exchange: (1) Clarified the Form 19b-4 discussion regarding establishing strike prices for... rules of an exchange not be designed to permit unfair discrimination among customers, issuers, brokers... and among the options exchanges, resulting in better prices and executions for investors. This...
For the last time: stock options are an expense.

PubMed

Bodie, Zvi; Kaplan, Robert S; Merton, Robert C

2003-03-01

Should stock options be recorded as an expense on a company's income statement and balance sheet, or should they remain where they are, relegated to footnotes? The extraordinary boom in share prices during the Internet bubble made critics of option expensing look like spoilsports. But since the crash, the debate has returned with a vengeance. And no wonder: The authors believe the case for expensing options is overwhelming. In this article, Nobel Iaureate Robert Merton, one of the inventors of the Black-Scholes option-pricing model; his coauthor on the classic textbook Finance, Zvi Bodie; and Robert Kaplan, creator of the Balanced Scorecard, examine and dismiss the principal claims put forward by those who continue to oppose options expensing. They demonstrate that stock-option grants do indeed have real cash-flow implications that need to be reported. They show that effective ways certainly exist to quantify those implications. They detail the distortions that relegating stock-option accounting to footnotes creates. And they show why reporting option costs should in no way hamper young companies in their efforts to provide incentives. Options are indeed a powerful incentive, the authors agree, and failing to record a transaction that creates such powerful effects is economically indefensible. Worse, it encourages companies to favor options over alternative incentive systems. It is not the proper role of accounting standards, the authors argue, to distort executive and employee compensation by subsidizing one particular form of compensation and no other. Companies should choose compensation methods according to their economic benefits--not the way they are reported.
Study of Agricultural Product Options Pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

HONG, Qiu

2017-09-01

China is a large agricultural country, and the healthy development of agriculture is related to the stability of the whole society. The agricultural production and management of agricultural products are confronted with many risks, especially the market risks. Option contract is the object of option market transaction, so it is very important to study the option contract of agricultural products. Option trading separates the risk and profit, so that the trader can avoid the risk while retaining the opportunity to obtain income. The option has the characteristics of low transaction cost, simple and efficient, so it is suitable for small and medium investors.
Fuzzy usage pattern in customizing public transport fleet and its maintenance options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Husniah, H.; Herdiani, L.; Kusmaya; Supriatna, A. K.

2018-05-01

In this paper we study a two-dimensional maintenance contract for a fleet of public transport, such as buses, shuttle etc. The buses are sold with a two-dimensional warranty. The warranty and the maintenance contract are characterized by two parameters – age and usage – which define a two-dimensional region. However, we use one dimensional approach to model these age and usage of the buses. The under-laying maintenance service contracts is the one which offers policy limit cost to protect a service provider (an agent) from over claim and to pursue the owner to do maintenance under specified cost in house. This in turn gives benefit for both the owner of the buses and the agent of service contract. The decision problem for an agent is to determine the optimal price for each option offered, and for the owner is to select the best contract option. We use a Nash game theory formulation in order to obtain a win-win solution – i.e. the optimal price for the agent and the optimal option for the owner. We further assume that there will be three different usage pattern of the buses, i.e. low, medium, and high pattern of the usage rate. In many situations it is often that we face a blur boundary between the adjacent patterns. In this paper we look for the optimal price for the agent and the optimal option for the owner, which minimizes the expected total cost while considering the fuzziness of the usage rate pattern.
75 FR 69334 - International Product and Price Changes

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-12

... the following product features and classification changes: Permit Imprint To provide additional payment options for customers we are authorizing permit imprint as a new postage payment option for GXG... (GSS) and pay for postage with a permit imprint through an advance deposit account. The commercial base...
Mathematics, Pricing, Market Risk Management and Trading Strategies for Financial Derivatives (3/3)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coffey, Brian J., Lynn, Bryan

IR and Long Term FX Derivatives - Stochastic Martingales for IR Curves - Implied Volatility Along the IR Curve - IR Libor Bonds - Vanilla IR Options: Caplets, Floorlets - Long Term FX Options: Interaction of Stochastic FX and Stochastic IR - $-Yen Bermudan Power Reverse Duals
Mathematics, Pricing, Market Risk Management and Trading Strategies for Financial Derivatives (3/3)

ScienceCinema

Coffey, Brian J., Lynn, Bryan

2018-04-26

IR and Long Term FX Derivatives - Stochastic Martingales for IR Curves - Implied Volatility Along the IR Curve - IR Libor Bonds - Vanilla IR Options: Caplets, Floorlets - Long Term FX Options: Interaction of Stochastic FX and Stochastic IR - $-Yen Bermudan Power Reverse Duals
Efficient numerical method for solving Cauchy problem for the Gamma equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koleva, Miglena N.

2011-12-01

In this work we consider Cauchy problem for the so called Gamma equation, derived by transforming the fully nonlinear Black-Scholes equation for option price into a quasilinear parabolic equation for the second derivative (Greek) Γ = VSS of the option price V. We develop an efficient numerical method for solving the model problem concerning different volatility terms. Using suitable change of variables the problem is transformed on finite interval, keeping original behavior of the solution at the infinity. Then we construct Picard-Newton algorithm with adaptive mesh step in time, which can be applied also in the case of non-differentiable functions. Results of numerical simulations are given.
Analysis of the discontinuous Galerkin method applied to the European option pricing problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hozman, J.

2013-12-01

In this paper we deal with a numerical solution of a one-dimensional Black-Scholes partial differential equation, an important scalar nonstationary linear convection-diffusion-reaction equation describing the pricing of European vanilla options. We present a derivation of the numerical scheme based on the space semidiscretization of the model problem by the discontinuous Galerkin method with nonsymmetric stabilization of diffusion terms and with the interior and boundary penalty. The main attention is paid to the investigation of a priori error estimates for the proposed scheme. The appended numerical experiments illustrate the theoretical results and the potency of the method, consequently.
The impact of price reductions on individuals' choice of healthy meals away from home.

PubMed

Nordström, Jonas; Thunström, Linda

2015-06-01

Food high in energy but low in nutritional value is an important contributor to several serious illnesses, and one type of food that is particularly high in energy but low in nutrition is food consumed away from home. In this paper, we examine the demand and willingness to pay for healthy, Keyhole-labelled meals. A Keyhole-labelled meal is particularly low in energy, fat, sugar and salt, but particularly high in fibre. The results suggest that to get the majority of individuals to choose the healthy option regularly it would be necessary to alter the relative price between healthy and less healthy meals. Generally groups of individuals with a poor nutritional intake require a larger compensation (subsidy) before they choose the healthy alternative. About one third of respondents would choose the healthy option regularly if the prices for a healthy and less healthy meal were the same. In particular groups of individuals who already have a relatively good nutritional intake would select the healthy option. Groups with a generally poor nutritional intake (men and individuals with lower education and lower income) would gain health benefits from a subsidy of Keyhole-labelled meals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Bounds for the price of discrete arithmetic Asian options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanmaele, M.; Deelstra, G.; Liinev, J.; Dhaene, J.; Goovaerts, M. J.

2006-01-01

In this paper the pricing of European-style discrete arithmetic Asian options with fixed and floating strike is studied by deriving analytical lower and upper bounds. In our approach we use a general technique for deriving upper (and lower) bounds for stop-loss premiums of sums of dependent random variables, as explained in Kaas et al. (Ins. Math. Econom. 27 (2000) 151-168), and additionally, the ideas of Rogers and Shi (J. Appl. Probab. 32 (1995) 1077-1088) and of Nielsen and Sandmann (J. Financial Quant. Anal. 38(2) (2003) 449-473). We are able to create a unifying framework for European-style discrete arithmetic Asian options through these bounds, that generalizes several approaches in the literature as well as improves the existing results. We obtain analytical and easily computable bounds. The aim of the paper is to formulate an advice of the appropriate choice of the bounds given the parameters, investigate the effect of different conditioning variables and compare their efficiency numerically. Several sets of numerical results are included. We also discuss hedging using these bounds. Moreover, our methods are applicable to a wide range of (pricing) problems involving a sum of dependent random variables.
Utility Green-Pricing Programs: What Defines Success? (Topical Issues Brief)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Swezey, B.; Bird, L.

2001-09-13

''Green pricing'' is an optional service through which customers can support a greater level of investment by their electric utility in renewable energy technologies. Electric utilities in 29 states are now implementing green-pricing programs. This report examines important elements of green-pricing programs, including the different types of programs offered, the premiums charged, customer response, and additional factors that experience indicates are key to the development of successful programs. The best-performing programs tend to share a number of common attributes related to product design, value creation, product pricing, and program implementation. The report ends with a list of ''best practices'' formore » utilities to follow when developing and implementing programs.« less
Bayesian posterior distributions without Markov chains.

PubMed

Cole, Stephen R; Chu, Haitao; Greenland, Sander; Hamra, Ghassan; Richardson, David B

2012-03-01

Bayesian posterior parameter distributions are often simulated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, MCMC methods are not always necessary and do not help the uninitiated understand Bayesian inference. As a bridge to understanding Bayesian inference, the authors illustrate a transparent rejection sampling method. In example 1, they illustrate rejection sampling using 36 cases and 198 controls from a case-control study (1976-1983) assessing the relation between residential exposure to magnetic fields and the development of childhood cancer. Results from rejection sampling (odds ratio (OR) = 1.69, 95% posterior interval (PI): 0.57, 5.00) were similar to MCMC results (OR = 1.69, 95% PI: 0.58, 4.95) and approximations from data-augmentation priors (OR = 1.74, 95% PI: 0.60, 5.06). In example 2, the authors apply rejection sampling to a cohort study of 315 human immunodeficiency virus seroconverters (1984-1998) to assess the relation between viral load after infection and 5-year incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, adjusting for (continuous) age at seroconversion and race. In this more complex example, rejection sampling required a notably longer run time than MCMC sampling but remained feasible and again yielded similar results. The transparency of the proposed approach comes at a price of being less broadly applicable than MCMC.
Bertrand and Cournot oligopolies when rivals' costs are unknown

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, Fernanda A.; Ferreira, Flávio

2010-10-01

We study Bertrand and Cournot oligopoly models with incomplete information about rivals' costs, where the uncertainty is given by a uniform distribution. We compute the Bayesian-Nash equilibrium of both games, the ex-ante expected profits and the ex-post profits of each firm. We see that, in the price competition, even though only one firm produces in equilibrium, all firms have a positive ex-ante expected profit.
75 FR 23833 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-04

... date and is contingent upon the Commission's approval of The Options Clearing Corporation's (``OCC... objectives. ISE has analyzed its capacity and represents that it and the Options Price Reporting Authority have the necessary systems capacity to handle the additional traffic associated with the listing and...
78 FR 38416 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Miami International Securities Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-26

..., without limitation, options, equities, futures, derivatives, indexes, exchange traded funds, exchange...., equity and ETF, index, derivatives, futures, foreign currency, and even commodities products... low as $0.05).\\13\\ \\13\\ As an example, per the CME Web site, strike prices for options on futures may...
A Dynamic, Stochastic, Computational Model of Preference Reversal Phenomena

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Joseph G.; Busemeyer, Jerome R.

2005-01-01

Preference orderings among a set of options may depend on the elicitation method (e.g., choice or pricing); these preference reversals challenge traditional decision theories. Previous attempts to explain these reversals have relied on allowing utility of the options to change across elicitation methods by changing the decision weights, the…
77 FR 1107 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Options Clearing Corporation; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-09

..., (4) exercise price, (5) American or European exercise style, and (6) method of calculating settlement...) expiration date; (5) American or European exercise style; and (6) method of calculating exercise settlement... management for these OTC options present any difficult challenges. Nevertheless, as discussed further below...
Do healthier foods cost more in Saudi Arabia than less healthier options?

PubMed Central

Gosadi, Ibrahim M.; Alshehri, Muner A.; Alawad, Saud H.

2016-01-01

Objectives: To investigate whether healthy foods in Saudi Arabia cost more compared with less healthy options. Method: This is a cross-sectional study conducted in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia during June and July 2015. The study targeted well-known market chains in the city of Riyadh. The selection of food items was purposive to include healthy and less healthy food items in each category. Price, caloric value, salt, fat, sugar, and fiber contents for each food item were collected. To test for the correlation between nutritional contents and average price, Spearman’s correlation coefficients were calculated. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to test for the presence of average price difference between healthy and less healthy food items. Results: A total of 162 food items were collected. Sixty-six food items were classified as healthy compared with 96 less healthier options. The calculated correlation coefficients indicate an association between increased cost of food with increased caloric values (0.649 p=0.0000001), increased fat content (0.610 p=0.0000003), and increased salt contents (0.273 p=0.001). Prices of food items with higher fiber contents showed a weaker association (0.191 p=0.015). The overall average cost of healthy food was approximately 10 Saudi riyals cheaper than less healthy food (p=0.000001). Conclusion: The findings of the study suggest that the cost of healthy food is lower than that of less healthy items in the Saudi market. PMID:27570859

Innovations in Defense Acquisition: Asymmetric Information and Incentive Contract Design

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-12-15

selection. As the fixed price increases, consumers who eat the least will be the most likely to stop patronizing the restaurant . Therefore, increasing...mechanism (MBA Professional Report). Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School. Riordan, M.H., & Sappington, D.E.M. (1987). Awarding monopoly franchises ...options from which a contractor can choose. The options provided by the TRIM read like a restaurant menu. Each option on the menu has three
78 FR 8644 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BOX Options Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-06

... when the Exchange deems it necessary to maintain an orderly market, to meet customer demand, or when... customer demand, or when certain price movements take place in the underlying market. The Exchange proposes..., to meet customer demand, or when certain price movements take place in the underlying market. The...
76 FR 73582 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed Collection; Comment Request-Community...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-29

... percentage of meals reimbursed at the free rate (currently 1.6 times the ISP) and the threshold value of the... household applications for Free or Reduced Price meals. Under the CE Option, families are not required to submit applications for free or reduced-price meals, and schools are required to provide free meals to...
As Food Prices Rise, Setting Menus Is Cause of Heartburn for Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Samuels, Christina A.

2008-01-01

With food and fuel prices increasing sharply, food and nutrition directors in school districts around the country are finding themselves facing some uncomfortable choices. In some districts, school lunch menus are being pared down to fewer selections, instead of the array of healthy options districts would like to offer. In other areas, canned and…
Intermediate Term Forecasting Techniques for Management.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-06-01

of Market Efficiency", Chiras and ranaster (1978) used actual option prices to calculate implied variances of future stock returns. They found a...of F*nance, v. 2 5 , p p . 6 5 -8 1 , M a r c h 1 9 1 0 .- .... . . . 23. Chiras D. P. and Nanaster, S., "The Infcrmation Content of Otion Prices and
26 CFR 1.446-3 - Notional principal contracts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... for a cap or floor agreement (even if it is paid in installments), the payment for an off-market swap... was priced according to a reasonable variation of the Black-Scholes option pricing formula and that... paid by F to E is a nonperiodic payment as defined in paragraph (f)(1) of this section. (c) The Black...
26 CFR 1.446-3 - Notional principal contracts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... for a cap or floor agreement (even if it is paid in installments), the payment for an off-market swap... was priced according to a reasonable variation of the Black-Scholes option pricing formula and that... paid by F to E is a nonperiodic payment as defined in paragraph (f)(1) of this section. (c) The Black...
26 CFR 1.446-3 - Notional principal contracts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... for a cap or floor agreement (even if it is paid in installments), the payment for an off-market swap... was priced according to a reasonable variation of the Black-Scholes option pricing formula and that... paid by F to E is a nonperiodic payment as defined in paragraph (f)(1) of this section. (c) The Black...
26 CFR 1.446-3 - Notional principal contracts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... for a cap or floor agreement (even if it is paid in installments), the payment for an off-market swap... was priced according to a reasonable variation of the Black-Scholes option pricing formula and that... paid by F to E is a nonperiodic payment as defined in paragraph (f)(1) of this section. (c) The Black...
26 CFR 1.446-3 - Notional principal contracts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... for a cap or floor agreement (even if it is paid in installments), the payment for an off-market swap... was priced according to a reasonable variation of the Black-Scholes option pricing formula and that... paid by F to E is a nonperiodic payment as defined in paragraph (f)(1) of this section. (c) The Black...
75 FR 21688 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Order Granting Accelerated Approval...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-26

...-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Order Granting Accelerated Approval of Proposed Rule... 20, 2010. I. Introduction On March 11, 2010, The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (``Nasdaq'' or ``Exchange.... Strike prices for ETF options are permitted in $1 or greater intervals where the strike price is $200 or...
78 FR 17452 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-21

... compliance with the Plan by preventing trades from occurring outside the price bands during a limit state... requirements that prevent trades in individual NMS Stocks from occurring outside of specified price bands, as... trades or monetary gaps of liquidity). \\3\\ See Securities Exchange Act Release No. 64547 (May 25, 2011...
78 FR 17249 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BOX Options Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-20

... PIP Order which may result in greater opportunity for price improvement for customers. B. Self... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Release No. 34-69135; File No. SR-BOX-2013-11] Self-Regulatory... Amend the BOX Price Improvement Period (``PIP'') Rule 7150 March 14, 2013. Pursuant to Section 19(b)(1...
76 FR 19169 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-06

... Effectiveness of Proposed Rule Change To Expand the $2.50 Strike Price Program March 31, 2011. Pursuant to... Exchange filed the proposal as a ``non- controversial'' proposed rule change pursuant to Section 19(b)(3)(A... to expand the Exchange's $2.50 Strike Price Program (the ``Program'') to permit the listing of...
76 FR 72470 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX BX, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-23

... Simplify the $1 Strike Price Interval Program November 17, 2011. Pursuant to Section 19(b)(1) of the... by the Exchange. The Exchange has designated the proposed rule change as constituting a non...) of the Rules of the Boston Options Exchange Group, LLC (``BOX'') to simplify the $1 Strike Price...
78 FR 21993 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BOX Options Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-12

... greater than $0.01 (i.e., all non-Penny Pilot Classes, and Penny Pilot Classes where the trade price is... intense competition on price (and other dimensions of competition) to attract order flow from order flow... II (Liquidity Fees and Credits) that when a non-immediately marketable order executes against a PIP...
78 FR 5525 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-25

... with another complex order on the Exchange. \\3\\ See ISE Rule 722(a)(1). Rule 720 provides a framework... deemed to have occurred when the execution price of a transaction is higher or lower than the theoretical... criteria when determining the theoretical price of an options execution, which is enumerated in ISE Rule...
Multirole cargo aircraft options and configurations. [economic analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Conner, D. W.; Vaughan, J. C., III

1979-01-01

A future requirements and advanced market evaluation study indicates derivatives of current wide-body aircraft, using 1980 advanced technology, would be economically attractive through 2008, but new dedicated airfreighters incorporating 1990 technology, would offer little or no economic incentive. They would be economically attractive for all payload sizes, however, if RD and T costs could be shared in a joint civil/military arrangement. For the 1994-2008 cargo market, option studies indicate Mach 0.7 propfans would be economically attractive in trip cost, aircraft price and airline ROI. Spanloaders would have an even lower price and higher ROI but would have a relatively high trip cost because of aerodynamic inefficiencies. Dedicated airfreighters using propfans at Mach 0.8 cruise, laminar flow control, or cryofuels, would not provide any great economic benefits. Air cushion landing gear configurations are identified as an option for avoiding runway constraints on airport requirements and/or operational constraints are noted.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marnay, Chris; Siddiqui, Afzal; Marnay, Chris

This paper examines a California-based microgrid?s decision to invest in a distributed generation (DG) unit fuelled by natural gas. While the long-term natural gas generation cost is stochastic, we initially assume that the microgrid may purchase electricity at a fixed retail rate from its utility. Using the real options approach, we find a natural gas generation cost threshold that triggers DG investment. Furthermore, the consideration of operational flexibility by the microgrid increases DG investment, while the option to disconnect from the utility is not attractive. By allowing the electricity price to be stochastic, we next determine an investment threshold boundarymore » and find that high electricity price volatility relative to that of natural gas generation cost delays investment while simultaneously increasing the value of the investment. We conclude by using this result to find the implicit option value of the DG unit when two sources of uncertainty exist.« less
Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models with a hidden Markov structure for the detection of influenza epidemic outbreaks.

PubMed

Conesa, D; Martínez-Beneito, M A; Amorós, R; López-Quílez, A

2015-04-01

Considerable effort has been devoted to the development of statistical algorithms for the automated monitoring of influenza surveillance data. In this article, we introduce a framework of models for the early detection of the onset of an influenza epidemic which is applicable to different kinds of surveillance data. In particular, the process of the observed cases is modelled via a Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson model in which the intensity parameter is a function of the incidence rate. The key point is to consider this incidence rate as a normal distribution in which both parameters (mean and variance) are modelled differently, depending on whether the system is in an epidemic or non-epidemic phase. To do so, we propose a hidden Markov model in which the transition between both phases is modelled as a function of the epidemic state of the previous week. Different options for modelling the rates are described, including the option of modelling the mean at each phase as autoregressive processes of order 0, 1 or 2. Bayesian inference is carried out to provide the probability of being in an epidemic state at any given moment. The methodology is applied to various influenza data sets. The results indicate that our methods outperform previous approaches in terms of sensitivity, specificity and timeliness. © The Author(s) 2011 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Decision scenario analysis for addressing sediment accumulation in Lago Lucchetti, Puerto Rico

EPA Science Inventory

A Bayesian belief network (BBN) was used to characterize the effects of sediment accumulation on water storage capacity of a reservoir (Lago Lucchetti) in southwest Puerto Rico and the potential of different management options to increase reservoir life expectancy. Water and sedi...
Enhancing the comparability of costing methods: cross-country variability in the prices of non-traded inputs to health programmes

PubMed Central

Johns, Benjamin; Adam, Taghreed; Evans, David B

2006-01-01

Background National and international policy makers have been increasing their focus on developing strategies to enable poor countries achieve the millennium development goals. This requires information on the costs of different types of health interventions and the resources needed to scale them up, either singly or in combinations. Cost data also guides decisions about the most appropriate mix of interventions in different settings, in view of the increasing, but still limited, resources available to improve health. Many cost and cost-effectiveness studies include only the costs incurred at the point of delivery to beneficiaries, omitting those incurred at other levels of the system such as administration, media, training and overall management. The few studies that have measured them directly suggest that they can sometimes account for a substantial proportion of total costs, so that their omission can result in biased estimates of the resources needed to run a programme or the relative cost-effectiveness of different choices. However, prices of different inputs used in the production of health interventions can vary substantially within a country. Basing cost estimates on a single price observation runs the risk that the results are based on an outlier observation rather than the typical costs of the input. Methods We first explore the determinants of the observed variation in the prices of selected "non-traded" intermediate inputs to health programmes – printed matter and media advertising, and water and electricity – accounting for variation within and across countries. We then use the estimated relationship to impute average prices for countries where limited data are available with uncertainty intervals. Results Prices vary across countries with GDP per capita and a number of determinants of supply and demand. Media and printing were inelastic with respect to GDP per capita, with a positive correlation, while the utilities had a surprisingly negative relationship. All equations had relatively good fits with the data. Conclusion While the preferred option is to derive costs from a random sample of prices in each setting, this option is often not available to analysts. In this case, we suggest that the approach described in this paper could represent a better option than basing policy recommendations on results that are built on the basis of a single, or a few, price observations. PMID:16630364
Enhancing the comparability of costing methods: cross-country variability in the prices of non-traded inputs to health programmes.

PubMed

Johns, Benjamin; Adam, Taghreed; Evans, David B

2006-04-24

National and international policy makers have been increasing their focus on developing strategies to enable poor countries achieve the millennium development goals. This requires information on the costs of different types of health interventions and the resources needed to scale them up, either singly or in combinations. Cost data also guides decisions about the most appropriate mix of interventions in different settings, in view of the increasing, but still limited, resources available to improve health. Many cost and cost-effectiveness studies include only the costs incurred at the point of delivery to beneficiaries, omitting those incurred at other levels of the system such as administration, media, training and overall management. The few studies that have measured them directly suggest that they can sometimes account for a substantial proportion of total costs, so that their omission can result in biased estimates of the resources needed to run a programme or the relative cost-effectiveness of different choices. However, prices of different inputs used in the production of health interventions can vary substantially within a country. Basing cost estimates on a single price observation runs the risk that the results are based on an outlier observation rather than the typical costs of the input. We first explore the determinants of the observed variation in the prices of selected "non-traded" intermediate inputs to health programmes--printed matter and media advertising, and water and electricity--accounting for variation within and across countries. We then use the estimated relationship to impute average prices for countries where limited data are available with uncertainty intervals. Prices vary across countries with GDP per capita and a number of determinants of supply and demand. Media and printing were inelastic with respect to GDP per capita, with a positive correlation, while the utilities had a surprisingly negative relationship. All equations had relatively good fits with the data. While the preferred option is to derive costs from a random sample of prices in each setting, this option is often not available to analysts. In this case, we suggest that the approach described in this paper could represent a better option than basing policy recommendations on results that are built on the basis of a single, or a few, price observations.
Predicting Drug Safety and Communicating Risk: Benefits of a Bayesian Approach.

PubMed

Lazic, Stanley E; Edmunds, Nicholas; Pollard, Christopher E

2018-03-01

Drug toxicity is a major source of attrition in drug discovery and development. Pharmaceutical companies routinely use preclinical data to predict clinical outcomes and continue to invest in new assays to improve predictions. However, there are many open questions about how to make the best use of available data, combine diverse data, quantify risk, and communicate risk and uncertainty to enable good decisions. The costs of suboptimal decisions are clear: resources are wasted and patients may be put at risk. We argue that Bayesian methods provide answers to all of these problems and use hERG-mediated QT prolongation as a case study. Benefits of Bayesian machine learning models include intuitive probabilistic statements of risk that incorporate all sources of uncertainty, the option to include diverse data and external information, and visualizations that have a clear link between the output from a statistical model and what this means for risk. Furthermore, Bayesian methods are easy to use with modern software, making their adoption for safety screening straightforward. We include R and Python code to encourage the adoption of these methods.
A discontinuous Galerkin method for two-dimensional PDE models of Asian options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hozman, J.; Tichý, T.; Cvejnová, D.

2016-06-01

In our previous research we have focused on the problem of plain vanilla option valuation using discontinuous Galerkin method for numerical PDE solution. Here we extend a simple one-dimensional problem into two-dimensional one and design a scheme for valuation of Asian options, i.e. options with payoff depending on the average of prices collected over prespecified horizon. The algorithm is based on the approach combining the advantages of the finite element methods together with the piecewise polynomial generally discontinuous approximations. Finally, an illustrative example using DAX option market data is provided.
Sensitivity analysis of the add-on price estimate for the silicon web growth process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mokashi, A. R.

1981-01-01

The web growth process, a silicon-sheet technology option, developed for the flat plate solar array (FSA) project, was examined. Base case data for the technical and cost parameters for the technical and commercial readiness phase of the FSA project are projected. The process add on price, using the base case data for cost parameters such as equipment, space, direct labor, materials and utilities, and the production parameters such as growth rate and run length, using a computer program developed specifically to do the sensitivity analysis with improved price estimation are analyzed. Silicon price, sheet thickness and cell efficiency are also discussed.
Valuing Trial Designs from a Pharmaceutical Perspective Using Value-Based Pricing.

PubMed

Breeze, Penny; Brennan, Alan

2015-11-01

Our aim was to adapt the traditional framework for expected net benefit of sampling (ENBS) to be more compatible with drug development trials from the pharmaceutical perspective. We modify the traditional framework for conducting ENBS and assume that the price of the drug is conditional on the trial outcomes. We use a value-based pricing (VBP) criterion to determine price conditional on trial data using Bayesian updating of cost-effectiveness (CE) model parameters. We assume that there is a threshold price below which the company would not market the new intervention. We present a case study in which a phase III trial sample size and trial duration are varied. For each trial design, we sampled 10,000 trial outcomes and estimated VBP using a CE model. The expected commercial net benefit is calculated as the expected profits minus the trial costs. A clinical trial with shorter follow-up, and larger sample size, generated the greatest expected commercial net benefit. Increasing the duration of follow-up had a modest impact on profit forecasts. Expected net benefit of sampling can be adapted to value clinical trials in the pharmaceutical industry to optimise the expected commercial net benefit. However, the analyses can be very time consuming for complex CE models. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
75 FR 3765 - Options Price Reporting Authority; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-22

... Reporting Authority; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Amendment To Revise the Plan... (``Commission'') an amendment to the Plan for Reporting of Consolidated Options Last Sale Reports and Quotation Information (``OPRA Plan'').\\3\\ The proposed amendment would revise the OPRA Plan for the sole purpose of...
78 FR 63265 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-23

..., Incorporated (the ``Exchange'' or ``CBOE'') proposes to: (i) Make available historical Customized Option Pricing Service (``COPS'') data and (ii) revise the description of COPS. The text of the proposed rule.... The text of these statements may be examined at the places specified in Item IV below. The Exchange...
76 FR 72989 - Options Price Reporting Authority; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-28

... Options Last Sale Reports and Quotation Information (``OPRA Plan'').\\3\\ The proposed amendment would... OPRA Plan provides for the collection and dissemination of last sale and quotation information on... determine the fees that are payable to OPRA by Vendors' and Professional Subscribers. The second and third...
75 FR 69477 - Options Price Reporting Authority; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-12

...-Based Professional Subscriber Fees Charged by OPRA for its Basic Service November 8, 2010. Pursuant to... Options Last Sale Reports and Quotation Information (``OPRA Plan'').\\3\\ The proposed amendment would revise the device-based professional subscriber fees charged by OPRA in respect of its Basic Service. A...
75 FR 57539 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Order Approving...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-21

..., will also contain information and analysis of EOW and EOM trading patterns, and index price volatility... similar to regular index options, except the exercise settlement value will be based on the index value...\\ In light of historic Commission concerns about expanding p.m. settlement, CBOE has represented that...
78 FR 6391 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX BX, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-30

... shares other than 100.\\8\\ Moreover, the concept of listing and trading parallel options products of... system capacity, the Exchange has analyzed its capacity and represents that it and the Options Price Reporting Authority (``OPRA'') have the necessary systems capacity to handle the potential additional...
77 FR 76578 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-28

... volatility level. Occasionally, certain market activity occurs that makes it difficult to effect these types... options and a combination strategy outside of the currently prevailing market quotes in the individual... settlement price.\\10\\ In essence, CME has a market for complex, multi-part order strategies that is entirely...
Investment in hydrogen tri-generation for wastewater treatment plants under uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gharieh, Kaveh; Jafari, Mohsen A.; Guo, Qizhong

2015-11-01

In this article, we present a compound real option model for investment in hydrogen tri-generation and onsite hydrogen dispensing systems for a wastewater treatment plant under price and market uncertainties. The ultimate objective is to determine optimal timing and investment thresholds to exercise initial and subsequent options such that the total savings are maximized. Initial option includes investment in a 1.4 (MW) Molten Carbonate Fuel Cell (MCFC) fed by mixture of waste biogas from anaerobic digestion and natural gas, along with auxiliary equipment. Produced hydrogen in MCFC via internal reforming, is recovered from the exhaust gas stream using Pressure Swing Adsorption (PSA) purification technology. Therefore the expansion option includes investment in hydrogen compression, storage and dispensing (CSD) systems which creates additional revenue by selling hydrogen onsite in retail price. This work extends current state of investment modeling within the context of hydrogen tri-generation by considering: (i) Modular investment plan for hydrogen tri-generation and dispensing systems, (ii) Multiple sources of uncertainties along with more realistic probability distributions, (iii) Optimal operation of hydrogen tri-generation is considered, which results in realistic saving estimation.
Uncertainty plus Prior Equals Rational Bias: An Intuitive Bayesian Probability Weighting Function

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fennell, John; Baddeley, Roland

2012-01-01

Empirical research has shown that when making choices based on probabilistic options, people behave as if they overestimate small probabilities, underestimate large probabilities, and treat positive and negative outcomes differently. These distortions have been modeled using a nonlinear probability weighting function, which is found in several…
Dynamic Modeling Using MCSim and R (SOT 2016 Biological Modeling Webinar Series)

EPA Science Inventory

MCSim is a stand-alone software package for simulating and analyzing dynamic models, with a focus on Bayesian analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo. While it is an extremely powerful package, it is somewhat inflexible, and offers only a limited range of analysis options, with n...
Stochastic volatility of the futures prices of emission allowances: A Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jungmu; Park, Yuen Jung; Ryu, Doojin

2017-01-01

Understanding the stochastic nature of the spot volatility of emission allowances is crucial for risk management in emissions markets. In this study, by adopting a stochastic volatility model with or without jumps to represent the dynamics of European Union Allowances (EUA) futures prices, we estimate the daily volatilities and model parameters by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for stochastic volatility (SV), stochastic volatility with return jumps (SVJ) and stochastic volatility with correlated jumps (SVCJ) models. Our empirical results reveal three important features of emissions markets. First, the data presented herein suggest that EUA futures prices exhibit significant stochastic volatility. Second, the leverage effect is noticeable regardless of whether or not jumps are included. Third, the inclusion of jumps has a significant impact on the estimation of the volatility dynamics. Finally, the market becomes very volatile and large jumps occur at the beginning of a new phase. These findings are important for policy makers and regulators.
78 FR 16320 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; C2 Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing of Proposed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-14

... Defined,'' 6.11, ``Openings (and sometimes Closings),'' Rule 6.13, ``Complex Order Execution,'' Rule 6.15... outside of specified price bands, as defined in Section I(N) of the Plan. These requirements would be coupled with trading pauses, as defined in Section I(Y) of the Plan, to accommodate more fundamental price...
77 FR 74247 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Notice of Filing And Immediate Effectiveness of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-13

... outcry specifically provides the following: (1) If an OTP Holder or OTP Firm purchases (sells) one or... priority in purchasing (selling) up to the equivalent number of option contracts of the same series that the OTP Holder or OTP Firm purchased (sold) at the higher (lower) price or prices, provided that the...

77 FR 58431 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-20

... that will allow CBSX Traders to send silent orders, silent-mid orders, silent-post-mid orders, and... Taker fees for transactions in securities priced $1 or greater relating to these new order types. For transactions in securities priced less than $1, these new order types will be subject to the same Maker and...
76 FR 51099 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Order Granting...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-17

.... For each contract month, CBOE will determine the at-the-money strike price. The Exchange will then select the at-the-money and out- of-the money series with non-zero bid prices and determine the midpoint... that the further away that series is from the at-the-money strike, the less weight that is accorded to...
76 FR 32000 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Order Granting...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-02

.... For each contract month, CBOE will determine the at-the-money strike price. The Exchange will then select the at-the-money and out- of-the money series with non-zero bid prices and determine the midpoint... that the further away that series is from the at-the-money strike, the less weight that is accorded to...
75 FR 8774 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Amex LLC; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change Amending...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-25

... limits were introduced as a means of forestalling the potential manipulation of an equity's price by... significantly reduced concerns of market manipulation or disruption in the underlying markets. Shares in these... values on a per-share basis, the option strike prices result in being equal to \\1/ 100\\th of the...
77 FR 58604 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BOX Options Exchange LLC; Notice of Designation of a Longer Period...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-21

... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Release No. 34-67871; File No. SR-BOX-2012-003] Self... Action on Proposed Rule Change To Amend the Price Improvement Period September 17, 2012. On July 25, 2012... 19b-4 thereunder,\\3\\ a proposed rule change to amend Rule 7150 (the Price Improvement Period (``PIP...
77 FR 29397 - Order Granting Application of BOX Options Exchange, LLC for a Limited Exemption From Exchange Act...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-17

... for strict price-time priority execution (``Trading System'').\\2\\ The BOX Book and the Exchange Rules...'') as set forth in Exchange Rule 7150 are an exception to the strict price-time priority execution that... in the Application, BOX will operate a fully automated electronic book (``BOX Book'') for orders to...
75 FR 74755 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change by NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-01

... contingent orders and the rules that apply to such executions. Rule 1092 provides a framework for reviewing... execution price of a transaction is higher or lower than the theoretical price for a series by a certain amount depending on the type of option. OEOs use one of three criteria when determining the theoretical...
The reaction of private physicians to price deregulation in France.

PubMed

Carrere, M O

1991-01-01

French private physicians are paid on a fee-for-service basis and nearly all of them are under contract to the Social Security, which refunds part of the medical fee to the whole population. Previously the prices of medical services were fixed, but since 1980, a new option has been possible: a doctor can choose to fix the price of his services freely, provided he pays a higher social insurance contribution. But the amount refunded by Social Security does not vary, so that the consumer has to bear the extra charge. Our purpose here is to identify the factors that influence the physician's option. In Section 2, we define a model of the private physician's economic behaviour, of the classic income-leisure type. In Section 3, empirical tests are performed on a sample of observations in 95 'départements', gathering information about private GPs on the one hand, and the whole population on the other. According to our results, GPs' decisions depend on characteristics of both supply of and demand for GPs' services. One of our conclusions is that GPs seem to make up for low activity levels with higher prices, on condition the income of their practice allows it.
Proposal of Classification Method of Time Series Data in International Emissions Trading Market Using Agent-based Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakada, Tomohiro; Takadama, Keiki; Watanabe, Shigeyoshi

This paper proposes the classification method using Bayesian analytical method to classify the time series data in the international emissions trading market depend on the agent-based simulation and compares the case with Discrete Fourier transform analytical method. The purpose demonstrates the analytical methods mapping time series data such as market price. These analytical methods have revealed the following results: (1) the classification methods indicate the distance of mapping from the time series data, it is easier the understanding and inference than time series data; (2) these methods can analyze the uncertain time series data using the distance via agent-based simulation including stationary process and non-stationary process; and (3) Bayesian analytical method can show the 1% difference description of the emission reduction targets of agent.
Riding the Electricity Market as an Energy Management Strategy: Savings from Real-Time Pricing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chiles, Thomas; Shutika, Kenneth; Coleman, Philip

Dynamic pricing of electricity, in which retail prices facing customers are responsive to changes in the underlying wholesale markets, represents a step towards economic efficiency in that customers get exposed to some or all of the costs facing wholesale market players. But what do customers who opt for this greater exposure – available in the roughly 15 “de-regulated” states, as well as, to some extent, from some regulated utilities – get in return for their risks? The U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) took a retrospective eight-year look at what the savings would have been had they let the loads formore » which they purchase electricity in the Washington, DC area buy electricity on the real-time pricing (RTP) market – the dynamic pricing option with the highest risk – as opposed to the strategy they chose in actuality, which was fixing flat prices with 3rd-party providers. We found that opting for RTP for the eight years of the study (2005 through 2012) would have resulted in 17% savings, or almost a quarter of a billion dollars, relative to GSA’s actual prices from the 3rd-party suppliers. This is particularly astonishing given that GSA appeared to have timed the market well during the study period, consistently beating the standard offer products provided by the distribution utilities. The issue of budgetary predictability poses an obstacle for customers (especially government ones) considering RTP and, to a lesser extent, other dynamic pricing options. Indeed, GSA would have lost money with RTP in two of the eight years, one of them substantially. But the magnitude of the savings is indisputably compelling and, even if it may be somewhat aberrational due to high congestion in the DC market, begs consideration by large electricity users currently paying to “lock in” fixed flat prices.« less
Reliability-based econometrics of aerospace structural systems: Design criteria and test options. Ph.D. Thesis - Georgia Inst. of Tech.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, J. M.; Hanagud, S.

1974-01-01

The design criteria and test options for aerospace structural reliability were investigated. A decision methodology was developed for selecting a combination of structural tests and structural design factors. The decision method involves the use of Bayesian statistics and statistical decision theory. Procedures are discussed for obtaining and updating data-based probabilistic strength distributions for aerospace structures when test information is available and for obtaining subjective distributions when data are not available. The techniques used in developing the distributions are explained.
An Analysis of the Hidden Costs of Competition in the Procurement of Spare Parts at the Navy Ships Parts Control Center: A Framework for Process Improvement

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-03-01

setting of sub- optimal goals and quotas, barriers between departments, and awarding contracts primarily on price are all anti-TQM practices that hinder...customer focus, the setting of sub- optimal goals and quotas, barriers between departments, and awarding contracts primarily on price are all anti-TQM/L...surveys are often required to determine if a lower competitive price could be achieved before exercising options. This requirement is a sub- optimal
Alternative strategies for Medicare payment of outpatient prescription drugs--Part B and beyond.

PubMed

Danzon, Patricia M; Wilensky, Gail R; Means, Kathleen E

2005-03-01

Reimbursement options for pharmaceuticals reimbursed under Medicare Part B (physician-dispensed drugs) are changing and the new comprehensive Part D Medicare outpatient drug benefit brings further changes. The Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement and Modernization Act of 2003 (MMA) replaces traditional policy, of reimbursing Part B drugs at 95% of average wholesale price (AWP, a list price), with a percentage markup over the manufacturer's average selling price; in 2005 an indirect competitive procurement option will be introduced. In our view, although AWP-based reimbursement has been fraught with problems in the past, these could be fixed by constraining growth in AWP and periodically adjusting the discount off AWP. With these revisions, an AWP-based rule would preserve incentives for competitive discounting and deliver savings to Medicare. By contrast, basing Medicare reimbursement on a manufacturer's average selling price undermines incentives for discounting and, like any cost-based reimbursement rule, may result in higher prices to both public and private purchasers. Indirect competitive procurement for drugs alone, using specialty pharmacies, pharmacy benefit managers, or prescription drug plans, is unlikely to constrain costs to acceptable levels unless contractors retain flexibility to use standard benefit management tools. Folding Part B and Part D into comprehensive contracting with health plans for full health services is likely to offer the most efficient approach to managing the drug benefit.
Numerically pricing American options under the generalized mixed fractional Brownian motion model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Wenting; Yan, Bowen; Lian, Guanghua; Zhang, Ying

2016-06-01

In this paper, we introduce a robust numerical method, based on the upwind scheme, for the pricing of American puts under the generalized mixed fractional Brownian motion (GMFBM) model. By using portfolio analysis and applying the Wick-Itô formula, a partial differential equation (PDE) governing the prices of vanilla options under the GMFBM is successfully derived for the first time. Based on this, we formulate the pricing of American puts under the current model as a linear complementarity problem (LCP). Unlike the classical Black-Scholes (B-S) model or the generalized B-S model discussed in Cen and Le (2011), the newly obtained LCP under the GMFBM model is difficult to be solved accurately because of the numerical instability which results from the degeneration of the governing PDE as time approaches zero. To overcome this difficulty, a numerical approach based on the upwind scheme is adopted. It is shown that the coefficient matrix of the current method is an M-matrix, which ensures its stability in the maximum-norm sense. Remarkably, we have managed to provide a sharp theoretic error estimate for the current method, which is further verified numerically. The results of various numerical experiments also suggest that this new approach is quite accurate, and can be easily extended to price other types of financial derivatives with an American-style exercise feature under the GMFBM model.
Dynamic option pricing with endogenous stochastic arbitrage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contreras, Mauricio; Montalva, Rodrigo; Pellicer, Rely; Villena, Marcelo

2010-09-01

Only few efforts have been made in order to relax one of the key assumptions of the Black-Scholes model: the no-arbitrage assumption. This is despite the fact that arbitrage processes usually exist in the real world, even though they tend to be short-lived. The purpose of this paper is to develop an option pricing model with endogenous stochastic arbitrage, capable of modelling in a general fashion any future and underlying asset that deviate itself from its market equilibrium. Thus, this investigation calibrates empirically the arbitrage on the futures on the S&P 500 index using transaction data from September 1997 to June 2009, from here a specific type of arbitrage called “arbitrage bubble”, based on a t-step function, is identified and hence used in our model. The theoretical results obtained for Binary and European call options, for this kind of arbitrage, show that an investment strategy that takes advantage of the identified arbitrage possibility can be defined, whenever it is possible to anticipate in relative terms the amplitude and timespan of the process. Finally, the new trajectory of the stock price is analytically estimated for a specific case of arbitrage and some numerical illustrations are developed. We find that the consequences of a finite and small endogenous arbitrage not only change the trajectory of the asset price during the period when it started, but also after the arbitrage bubble has already gone. In this context, our model will allow us to calibrate the B-S model to that new trajectory even when the arbitrage already started.
A Stated Preference Investigation into the Chinese Demand for Farmed vs. Wild Bear Bile

PubMed Central

Dutton, Adam J.; Hepburn, Cameron; Macdonald, David W.

2011-01-01

Farming of animals and plants has recently been considered not merely as a more efficient and plentiful supply of their products but also as a means of protecting wild populations from that trade. Amongst these nascent farming products might be listed bear bile. Bear bile has been exploited by traditional Chinese medicinalists for millennia. Since the 1980s consumers have had the options of: illegal wild gall bladders, bile extracted from caged live bears or the acid synthesised chemically. Despite these alternatives bears continue to be harvested from the wild. In this paper we use stated preference techniques using a random sample of the Chinese population to estimate demand functions for wild bear bile with and without competition from farmed bear bile. We find a willingness to pay considerably more for wild bear bile than farmed. Wild bear bile has low own price elasticity and cross price elasticity with farmed bear bile. The ability of farmed bear bile to reduce demand for wild bear bile is at best limited and, at prevailing prices, may be close to zero or have the opposite effect. The demand functions estimated suggest that the own price elasticity of wild bear bile is lower when competing with farmed bear bile than when it is the only option available. This means that the incumbent product may actually sell more items at a higher price when competing than when alone in the market. This finding may be of broader interest to behavioural economists as we argue that one explanation may be that as product choice increases price has less impact on decision making. For the wildlife farming debate this indicates that at some prices the introduction of farmed competition might increase the demand for the wild product. PMID:21799733
A stated preference investigation into the Chinese demand for farmed vs. wild bear bile.

PubMed

Dutton, Adam J; Hepburn, Cameron; Macdonald, David W

2011-01-01

Farming of animals and plants has recently been considered not merely as a more efficient and plentiful supply of their products but also as a means of protecting wild populations from that trade. Amongst these nascent farming products might be listed bear bile. Bear bile has been exploited by traditional Chinese medicinalists for millennia. Since the 1980s consumers have had the options of: illegal wild gall bladders, bile extracted from caged live bears or the acid synthesised chemically. Despite these alternatives bears continue to be harvested from the wild. In this paper we use stated preference techniques using a random sample of the Chinese population to estimate demand functions for wild bear bile with and without competition from farmed bear bile. We find a willingness to pay considerably more for wild bear bile than farmed. Wild bear bile has low own price elasticity and cross price elasticity with farmed bear bile. The ability of farmed bear bile to reduce demand for wild bear bile is at best limited and, at prevailing prices, may be close to zero or have the opposite effect. The demand functions estimated suggest that the own price elasticity of wild bear bile is lower when competing with farmed bear bile than when it is the only option available. This means that the incumbent product may actually sell more items at a higher price when competing than when alone in the market. This finding may be of broader interest to behavioural economists as we argue that one explanation may be that as product choice increases price has less impact on decision making. For the wildlife farming debate this indicates that at some prices the introduction of farmed competition might increase the demand for the wild product.
76 FR 20784 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-13

... Brazil Index Fund (``EWZ''), the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (``GDX''), and the Energy Select Sector... volatility.\\6\\ \\6\\ CBOE will be the reporting authority for any Vol Index. CBOE will compute values for Vol... price or the calculated forward value of the respective Vol index. Transactions in Vol Index options may...
78 FR 16749 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BOX Options Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-18

...). The Limit Up-Limit Down Plan is designed to prevent executions from occurring outside of dynamic price... count for purposes of calculating whether a Market Maker is fulfilling its obligations for continuous... Organizations; BOX Options Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change To Clarify How the Exchange...
76 FR 71395 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-17

... Exchange proposes to amend its Customer and Professional Routing Fees governing pricing for Exchange members using the Phlx XL II system,\\3\\ for routing standardized equity and index option Customer and...) (SR-Phlx-2009-32). The instant proposed fees will apply only to option orders entered into, and routed...

77 FR 3026 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-20

... proposes to amend its Customer and Professional Routing Fees governing pricing for Exchange members using the Phlx XL II system,\\3\\ for routing standardized equity and index option Customer and Professional...-32). The instant proposed fees will apply only to option orders entered into, and routed by, the Phlx...
76 FR 57097 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-15

... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Release No. 34-65310; File No. SR-CBOE-2011-082] Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule Change Related to Opening and Complex Order Price Check Parameter Features September 9, 2011. Pursuant to Section 19(b)(1)...
77 FR 4073 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-26

... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Release No. 34-66207; File No. SR-CBOE-2012-004] Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule Change Related to Automatic Execution and Complex Order Price Check Parameter Features January 20, 2012. Pursuant to Sectio...
75 FR 13614 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX, Inc.; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change To...

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2010-03-22

... to handle the additional traffic associated with the listing and trading of $1 strikes where the...-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX, Inc.; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change To Establish Strike... 1012 (Series of Options Open for Trading) to establish strike-price intervals for options on Index...
17 CFR 155.2 - Trading standards for floor brokers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... TRADING STANDARDS § 155.2 Trading standards for floor brokers. Each contract market shall adopt rules which shall, at a minimum, with respect to each member of the contract market acting as a floor broker... option, or (3) sale of any put option, in the same commodity which is executable at the market price or...
17 CFR 155.2 - Trading standards for floor brokers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... (CONTINUED) TRADING STANDARDS § 155.2 Trading standards for floor brokers. Each contract market shall adopt rules which shall, at a minimum, with respect to each member of the contract market acting as a floor... option, or (3) sale of any put option, in the same commodity which is executable at the market price or...
75 FR 11957 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-12

... system,\\3\\ for routing standardized equity and index option customer orders to away markets for execution... and index options to certain better-priced away markets. In May 2009, the Exchange adopted Rule 1080(m... the Exchange when orders are routed to these away markets. The Exchange is proposing a $.36...
76 FR 23632 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Amex LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-27

..., CBOE calculates the CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index (``GVZ''), which is based on the VIX methodology applied to options on the SPDR Gold Trust (``GLD''). The current filing would permit $0.50 strike price... other exchange-traded fund (``ETF'') options. See Rule 903, Commentary .05 Volatility indexes are...
76 FR 12778 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-08

... FX Options only. See ISE Rule 2213. \\8\\ A FXCMM is a competitive market maker selected by the... rule change will further the Exchange's goal of promoting trading of its FX options through competitive pricing. 2. Statutory Basis The Exchange believes that the proposed rule change is consistent with the...
78 FR 57191 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BOX Options Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

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2013-09-17

... transactions in the BOX Price Improvement Period (``PIP'') on the BOX Market LLC (``BOX'') options facility... to a PIP auction, and the retention rates of Initiating Participants and those market makers who... believes that in the aggregate, the long term data trends demonstrate there has not been a decline in...
76 FR 76788 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-08

... price (e.g., the series might be quoted no bid).\\7\\ \\5\\ See Securities Exchange Act Release Nos. 59188... Options Audit Trail (``COATS'') requirements of Exchange Rule 6.24, Required Order Information. However... format as the COATS data is maintained. In this regard, all transactions for less than $1 must be...
76 FR 27110 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-10

... even at the $1 cabinet price (e.g., the series might be quoted no bid).\\7\\ \\5\\ See Securities Exchange..., the transactions are exempt from the Consolidated Options Audit Trail (``COATS'') requirements of... transaction information for the transactions in the same format as the COATS data is maintained. In this...
77 FR 60161 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-02

... the ability to customize basic option features including size, expiration date, exercise style, and certain exercise prices. The Data would consist of indicative \\5\\ values for three categories of... because they find it is easier to assess the change, or lack of change, in the marketplace from one day to...
78 FR 10664 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

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2013-02-14

... entitled ``Multiply Listed Options Fees'' \\3\\ to amend fees applicable to a Firm. The Exchange also... filing is to increase certain fees applicable to Firms in Section II of the Pricing Schedule to more closely align the electronic Firm Penny Pilot Options \\4\\ Transaction Charge with other fees in Sections...
17 CFR 32.12 - Exemption from suspension of commodity option transactions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... net worth of at least $1,000,000; (2) Under the express contractual terms of each option offered by... price and premium and a transaction identification number; (6) Each person who is offering and selling...) [Reserved] (e) In the event that any provision of this section or the application thereof to any person or...
76 FR 41317 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-13

... the time the Exchange proposed the ``one-sided non-firm'' quote condition, the Options Price Reporting... quotation are marked ``non-firm.'' OPRA did not disseminate a ``non-firm'' condition for one side of a... of one contract if the remaining size is a seller, or (ii) an offer price of $200,000, with a size of...
Nuclear Power’s Role in Generating Electricity

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-05-01

and Without EPAct Incentives 9 2-1. Historical Volatility in Fuel Prices 20 2-2. Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Base-Load Technologies for Generating...options using that fuel would operate at their maximum capacity factor.CBO 20 NUCLEAR POWER’S ROLE IN GENERATING ELECTRICITY CBOFigure 2-1. Historical ... Volatility in Fuel Prices (Percentage change) Source: Congressional Budget Office based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA
78 FR 62766 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE MKT LLC; Order Instituting Proceedings To Determine Whether...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-22

... the prices originally quoted for each of the component option series within two hours after the time... series for the strategy at any one point in time over the previous two hours, not at separate points in time for each of the series.\\21\\ For example, an ATP Holder could not use the price of the April 2790...
77 FR 11604 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-27

... Rule Change Relating to Listing of Strike Prices February 21, 2012. Pursuant to Section 19(b)(1) of the... change as constituting a non- controversial rule change under Rule 19b-4(f)(6) under the Act,\\3\\ which..., Section 6 (Series of Options Open for Trading) to permit the listing of strike prices in $0.50 intervals...
An analysis of the costs of treating schizophrenia in Spain: a hierarchical Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Vázquez-Polo, Francisco-Jose; Negrín, Miguel; Cabasés, Juan M; Sánchez, Eduardo; Haro, Joseph M; Salvador-Carulla, Luis

2005-09-01

Health care decisions should incorporate cost of illness and treatment data, particularly for disorders such as schizophrenia with a high morbidity rate and a disproportionately low allocation of resources. Previous cost of illness analyses may have disregarded geographical aspects relevant for resource consumption and unit cost calculation. To compare the utilisation of resources and the care costs of schizophrenic patients in four mental-health districts in Spain (in Madrid, Catalonia, Navarra and Andalusia), and to analyse factors that determine the costs and the differences between areas. A treated prevalence bottom-up three year follow-up design was used for obtaining data concerning socio-demography, clinical evolution and the utilisation of services. 1997 reference prices were updated for years 1998-2000 in euros. We propose two different scenarios, varying in the prices applied. In the first (Scenario 0) the reference prices are those obtained for a single geographic area, and so the cost variations are only due to differences in the use of resources. In the second situation (Scenario 1), we analyse the variations in resource utilisation at different levels, using the prices applicable to each healthcare area. Bayesian hierarchical models are used to discuss the factors that determine such costs and the differences between geographic areas. In scenario 0, the estimated mean cost was 4918.948 euros for the first year. In scenario 1 the highest cost was in Gava (Catalonia) and the lowest in Loja (Andalusia). Mean costs were respectively 4547.24 and 2473.98 euros. With respect to the evolution of costs over time, we observed an increase during the second year and a reduction during the third year. Geographical differences appeared in follow-up costs. The variables related to lower treatment costs were: residence in the family household, higher patient age and being in work. On the contrary, the number of relapses is directly related to higher treatment costs. No differences were observed between health areas concerning resource utilisation. Calculating the costs of a given disease involves two principal factors: the resource utilisation and the prices. In most studies, emphasis is placed on the analysis of resource utilisation. Other evaluations, however, have recognized the implications of incorporating different prices into the final results. In this study we show both scenarios. The factors that determine the cost of schizophrenia for the Spanish case are similar to the factors encountered in studies carried out in other countries. Treatment costs may be reduced by the prevention of psychotic symptoms and relapse. The use of the same price data in multicentre studies may not be realistic. More effort should be made to obtain price data from all the centres or countries participating in a study. In the present study, only direct healthcare and social costs have been included. Future research should consider informal and indirect costs.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of therapeutic options for chronic hepatitis C genotype 3 infected patients.

PubMed

Gimeno-Ballester, Vicente; Mar, Javier; O'Leary, Aisling; Adams, Róisín; San Miguel, Ramón

2017-01-01

This study provides a cost-effectiveness analysis of therapeutic strategies for chronic hepatitis C genotype 3 infected patients in Spain. A Markov model was designed to simulate the progression in a cohort of patients aged 50 years over a lifetime horizon. Sofosbuvir (SOF) plus peginterferon and ribavirin for 12 weeks was a cost-effective option when compared to standard of care (SoC) in the treatment of both 'moderate fibrosis' and 'cirrhotic' patients. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were €35,276/QALY and €18,374/QALY respectively. ICERs for SOF plus daclatasvir (DCV) regimens versus SoC were over the threshold limit considered, at €56,178/QALY and €77,378/QALY for 'moderate fibrosis' and 'cirrhotic' patients respectively. Addition of SOF to IFN-based regimens for genotype 3 was cost-effective for both 'moderate fibrosis' and 'cirrhotic' patients. IFN-free options including SOF and DCV association required price reductions lower than the list prices to be considered cost-effective.
Pricing foreign equity option under stochastic volatility tempered stable Lévy processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Xiaoli; Zhuang, Xintian

2017-10-01

Considering that financial assets returns exhibit leptokurtosis, asymmetry properties as well as clustering and heteroskedasticity effect, this paper substitutes the logarithm normal jumps in Heston stochastic volatility model by the classical tempered stable (CTS) distribution and normal tempered stable (NTS) distribution to construct stochastic volatility tempered stable Lévy processes (TSSV) model. The TSSV model framework permits infinite activity jump behaviors of return dynamics and time varying volatility consistently observed in financial markets through subordinating tempered stable process to stochastic volatility process, capturing leptokurtosis, fat tailedness and asymmetry features of returns. By employing the analytical characteristic function and fast Fourier transform (FFT) technique, the formula for probability density function (PDF) of TSSV returns is derived, making the analytical formula for foreign equity option (FEO) pricing available. High frequency financial returns data are employed to verify the effectiveness of proposed models in reflecting the stylized facts of financial markets. Numerical analysis is performed to investigate the relationship between the corresponding parameters and the implied volatility of foreign equity option.
Adapting mudharabah principle in Islamic option

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhaimi, Siti Noor Aini binti; Salleh, Hassilah binti

2013-04-01

Most of the options today use the Black-Scholes model as the basis in valuing their price. This conventional model involves the elements that are strictly prohibited in Islam namely riba, gharar and maisir. Hence, this paper introduces a new mathematical model that has been adapted with mudharabah principle to replace the Black-Scholes model. This new model which is more compatible with Islamic values produces a new Islamic option which avoids any form of oppression and injustice to all parties involved.
Marginal Cost Pricing in a World without Perfect Competition: Implications for Electricity Markets with High Shares of Low Marginal Cost Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frew, Bethany A.; Clark, Kara; Bloom, Aaron P.

A common approach to regulating electricity is through auction-based competitive wholesale markets. The goal of this approach is to provide a reliable supply of power at the lowest reasonable cost to the consumer. This necessitates market structures and operating rules that ensure revenue sufficiency for all generators needed for resource adequacy purposes. Wholesale electricity markets employ marginal-cost pricing to provide cost-effective dispatch such that resources are compensated for their operational costs. However, marginal-cost pricing alone cannot guarantee cost recovery outside of perfect competition, and electricity markets have at least six attributes that preclude them from functioning as perfectly competitive markets.more » These attributes include market power, externalities, public good attributes, lack of storage, wholesale price caps, and ineffective demand curve. Until (and unless) these failures are ameliorated, some form of corrective action(s) will be necessary to improve market efficiency so that prices can correctly reflect the needed level of system reliability. Many of these options necessarily involve some form of administrative or out-of-market actions, such as scarcity pricing, capacity payments, bilateral or other out-of-market contracts, or some hybrid combination. A key focus with these options is to create a connection between the electricity market and long-term reliability/loss-of-load expectation targets, which are inherently disconnected in the native markets because of the aforementioned market failures. The addition of variable generation resources can exacerbate revenue sufficiency and resource adequacy concerns caused by these underlying market failures. Because variable generation resources have near-zero marginal costs, they effectively suppress energy prices and reduce the capacity factors of conventional generators through the merit-order effect in the simplest case of a convex market; non-convexities can also suppress prices.« less
A Bayesian hierarchical model with spatial variable selection: the effect of weather on insurance claims

PubMed Central

Scheel, Ida; Ferkingstad, Egil; Frigessi, Arnoldo; Haug, Ola; Hinnerichsen, Mikkel; Meze-Hausken, Elisabeth

2013-01-01

Climate change will affect the insurance industry. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical statistical approach to explain and predict insurance losses due to weather events at a local geographic scale. The number of weather-related insurance claims is modelled by combining generalized linear models with spatially smoothed variable selection. Using Gibbs sampling and reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, this model is fitted on daily weather and insurance data from each of the 319 municipalities which constitute southern and central Norway for the period 1997–2006. Precise out-of-sample predictions validate the model. Our results show interesting regional patterns in the effect of different weather covariates. In addition to being useful for insurance pricing, our model can be used for short-term predictions based on weather forecasts and for long-term predictions based on downscaled climate models. PMID:23396890
76 FR 35491 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Inc.; Order Granting Approval of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-17

... to the national best bid or offer (``NBBO''); and (iv) there are no public customer orders resting in... to provide their customers a net price for the stock-option trade, and then allow the TPH to execute... or near the same time; (iv) the specific relationship between the component orders (e.g., the spread...
78 FR 25500 - Options Price Reporting Authority; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-01

... chain. \\4\\ The term ``quote packet'' is defined in footnote 6 to OPRA's Fee Schedule as consisting of..., bid/ask and related market data. The term ``options chain'' is also defined in footnote 6 to OPRA's... essence, an OPRA Subscriber may obtain access to OPRA data in one of two ways: Either by signing a...
76 FR 35256 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-16

... Exchange proposes to amend its Customer Routing Fee governing pricing for Exchange members using the Phlx XL II system,\\3\\ for routing standardized equity and index option Customer orders to the C2 Options... Exchange Act Release No. 59995 (May 28, 2009), 74 FR 26750 (June 3, 2009) (SR-Phlx-2009-32). The instant...
76 FR 57094 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; C2 Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-15

... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Release No. 34-65311; File No. SR-C2-2011-018] Self-Regulatory Organizations; C2 Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule Change Related to Opening and Complex Order Price Check Parameter Features September 9, 2011. Pursuant to Section 19(b)(1) of the...
75 FR 1442 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of a Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-11

... OMX PHLX, Inc. To Amend the $1 Strike Program To Allow Low-Strike LEAPS January 4, 2010. Pursuant to... 1012 (Series of Options Open for Trading) to expand the Exchange's $1 Strike Price Program (``Program'' or ``$1 Strike Program'') \\3\\ to allow listing long-term option series (``LEAPS'') \\4\\ in $1 strike...
76 FR 33387 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-08

... calculates the CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index (``GVZ''), which is based on the VIX methodology applied to options on the SPDR Gold Trust (``GLD''). The current filing would permit $0.50 strike price intervals for... exchange-traded fund (``ETF'') options. See Rule 1012, Commentary .05(a)(iv). To the extent that the CBOE...
77 FR 39545 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-03

... price thus allowing investors to intuitively grasp the option's value, i.e., option is in the money, at the money or out of the money. The Exchange believes that by not changing anything but the multiplier... the mechanism of a free and open market and a national market system and, in general, to protect...
77 FR 35095 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-12

... price (e.g., the series might be quoted no bid).\\7\\ \\5\\ See Securities Exchange Act Release Nos. 59188... exempt from the Consolidated Options Audit Trail (``COATS'') requirements of Exchange Rule 6.24, Required... transactions in the same format as the COATS data is maintained. In this regard, all transactions for less than...
76 FR 18280 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BATS Exchange, Inc.; Notice of Proposed Rule Change, as Modified...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-01

... Order. As proposed, a Market Maker Price Improving Order would be ranked on the BATS Options Book at its... the BATS Options Book, but would be, along with its displayed size, converted to a buy or sell order... accordance with the order display and book processing requirements of Rule 21.8 and, if applicable, processed...
78 FR 15093 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BOX Options Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-08

... \\3\\ on BOX Market LLC (``BOX''), the options trading facility of the Exchange. In particular, the... (3.00) and for the purpose of executing a particular investment strategy.'' See proposed Rule 7240(a...'' is defined as the ``the best net bid and offer price for a Complex Order Strategy based on the NBBO...
78 FR 60981 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Order Approving a...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-02

... not available or the spot (cash) \\6\\ value for a volatility index option is not available. \\5\\ CBOE... Notice, supra note 3, at 49563. \\6\\ In the Notice, CBOE stated that the spot (cash) value of a volatility... (security) futures prices) is not available; or (3) whether the spot (cash) value for a volatility index is...
78 FR 16898 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; the NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-19

... Proposed Rule Change Relating to Penny Pilot and Non-Penny Pilot Options March 13, 2013. Pursuant to... proposes to amend certain Penny Pilot Options \\3\\ Rebates to Add Liquidity and certain Non-Penny Pilot... through June 30, 2013). See also NOM Rules, Chapter VI, Section 5. \\4\\ Non-Penny Pilot Pricing includes...
76 FR 20771 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-13

... regular index options, with one general exception: The exercise settlement value is based on the index... note 5. Generally, EOWs and EOMs are priced in the market based on corresponding futures values. On the... on broad-based indexes to expire on (a) any Friday of the month, other than the third Friday-of- the...
17 CFR 240.15c3-1f - Optional market and credit risk requirements for OTC derivatives dealers (Appendix F to 17 CFR...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... observations cannot be less than six months. Historical data sets must be updated at least every three months... quantitative aspects of the model which at a minimum must adhere to the criteria set forth in paragraph (e) of..., a description of how its own theoretical pricing model contains the minimum pricing factors set...
78 FR 4955 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Order Granting Approval of Proposed Rule Change...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-23

... of the $2 per share premium, so the net loss to the Index's value would be $5.50 per share on the ABC... strike price, then the option expires worthless and the entire amount of the premium payment is retained... for a premium of $2 per share: Settlement at or above the strike price: If at the end of 60 days the...

The neglected topic: presentation of cost information in patient decision AIDS.

PubMed

Blumenthal-Barby, J S; Robinson, Emily; Cantor, Scott B; Naik, Aanand D; Russell, Heidi Voelker; Volk, Robert J

2015-05-01

Costs are an important component of patients' decision making, but a comparatively underemphasized aspect of formal shared decision making. We hypothesized that decision aids also avoid discussion of costs, despite their being tools designed to facilitate shared decision making about patient-centered outcomes. We sought to define the frequency of cost-related information and identify the common modes of presenting cost and cost-related information in the 290 decision aids catalogued in the Ottawa Hospital Research Institute's Decision Aid Library Inventory (DALI) system. We found that 56% (n = 161) of the decision aids mentioned cost in some way, but only 13% (n = 37) gave a specific price or range of prices. We identified 9 different ways in which cost was mentioned. The most common approach was as a "pro" of one of the treatment options (e.g., "you avoid the cost of medication"). Of the 37 decision aids that gave specific prices or ranges of prices for treatment options, only 2 were about surgery decisions despite the fact that surgery decision aids were the most common. Our findings suggest that presentation of cost information in decision aids is highly variable. Evidence-based guidelines should be developed by the International Patient Decision Aid Standards (IPDAS) Collaboration. © The Author(s) 2015.
Price, promotion, and availability of nutrition information: a descriptive study of a popular fast food chain in New York City.

PubMed

Basch, Corey Hannah; Ethan, Danna; Rajan, Sonali

2013-08-25

Legislation in NYC requires chain restaurants to post calorie information on menu boards in an effort to help consumers make more informed decisions about food and beverage items they are purchasing. While this is a step in the right direction in light of the current obesity epidemic, there are other issues that warrant attention in a fast food setting, namely the pricing of healthy food options, promotional strategies, and access to comprehensive nutrition information. This study focused on a popular fast-food chain in NYC. The study's aims were threefold: (1) to determine the cost differential between the healthiest meal item on the chain's general menu and meal items available specifically on a reduced cost menu for one dollar (US$1.00); (2) to identify and describe the promotions advertised in the windows of these restaurants, as well as the nutrition content of promoted items; and (3) to ascertain availability of comprehensive nutrition information to consumers within the restaurants. We found the healthiest meal item to be significantly higher in price than less nutritious meal items available for $1.00 (t=146.9, p<.001), with the mean cost differential equal to $4.33 (95% CI: $4.27, $4.39). Window promotions generally advertised less healthful menu items, which may aid in priming customers to purchase these versus more healthful options. Comprehensive nutrition information beyond calorie counts was not readily accessible prior to purchasing. In addition to improving access to comprehensive nutrition information, advertising more of and lowering the prices of nutritious options may encourage consumers to purchase healthier foods in a fast food setting. Additional research in this area is needed in other geographic locations and restaurant chains.
Price, Promotion, and Availability of Nutrition Information: A Descriptive Study of a Popular Fast Food Chain in New York City

PubMed Central

Basch, Corey Hannah; Ethan, Danna; Rajan, Sonali

2013-01-01

Legislation in NYC requires chain restaurants to post calorie information on menu boards in an effort to help consumers make more informed decisions about food and beverage items they are purchasing. While this is a step in the right direction in light of the current obesity epidemic, there are other issues that warrant attention in a fast food setting, namely the pricing of healthy food options, promotional strategies, and access to comprehensive nutrition information. This study focused on a popular fast-food chain in NYC. The study’s aims were threefold: (1) to determine the cost differential between the healthiest meal item on the chain’s general menu and meal items available specifically on a reduced cost menu for one dollar (US$1.00); (2) to identify and describe the promotions advertised in the windows of these restaurants, as well as the nutrition content of promoted items; and (3) to ascertain availability of comprehensive nutrition information to consumers within the restaurants. We found the healthiest meal item to be significantly higher in price than less nutritious meal items available for $1.00 (t = 146.9, p < .001), with the mean cost differential equal to $4.33 (95% CI $4.27, $4.39). Window promotions generally advertised less healthful menu items, which may aid in priming customers to purchase these versus more healthful options. Comprehensive nutrition information beyond calorie counts was not readily accessible prior to purchasing. In addition to improving access to comprehensive nutrition information, advertising more of and lowering the prices of nutritious options may encourage consumers to purchase healthier foods in a fast food setting. Additional research in this area is needed in other geographic locations and restaurant chains. PMID:24171876
Milk: the new white gold? Milk production options for smallholder farmers in Southern Mali.

PubMed

de Ridder, N; Sanogo, O M; Rufino, M C; van Keulen, H; Giller, K E

2015-07-01

Until the turn of the century, farmers in West Africa considered cotton to be the 'white gold' for their livelihoods. Large fluctuations in cotton prices have led farmers to innovate into other business including dairy. Yet the productivity of cows fed traditional diets is very poor, especially during the long dry season. This study combines earlier published results of farmer participatory experiments with simulation modelling to evaluate the lifetime productivity of cows under varying feeding strategies and the resulting economic performance at farm level. We compared the profitability of cotton production to the innovation of dairy. The results show that milk production of the West African Méré breed could be expanded if cows are supplemented and kept stall-fed during the dry season. This option seems to be profitable for better-off farmers, but whether dairy will replace (some of) the role of cotton as the white gold for these smallholder farmers will depend on the cross price elasticity of cotton and milk. Farmers may (partly) replace cotton production for fodder production to produce milk if the price of cotton remains poor (below US$0.35/kg) and the milk price relatively strong (higher than US$0.38/kg). Price ratios need to remain stable over several seasons given the investments required for a change in production strategy. Furthermore, farmers will only seize the opportunity to engage in dairy if marketing infrastructure and milk markets are further developed.
Tax-exempt bank loans still an option for providers.

PubMed

Ostlund, Grant; Cheney, John E

2011-07-01

In evaluating the potential for tax-exempt bank financing, healthcare organizations should carefully consider: Pricing. Loan structure. Security requirements (such as financial covenants and default remedies).
Empirical performance of interpolation techniques in risk-neutral density (RND) estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahaludin, H.; Abdullah, M. H.

2017-03-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the empirical performance of interpolation techniques in risk-neutral density (RND) estimation. Firstly, the empirical performance is evaluated by using statistical analysis based on the implied mean and the implied variance of RND. Secondly, the interpolation performance is measured based on pricing error. We propose using the leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) pricing error for interpolation selection purposes. The statistical analyses indicate that there are statistical differences between the interpolation techniques:second-order polynomial, fourth-order polynomial and smoothing spline. The results of LOOCV pricing error shows that interpolation by using fourth-order polynomial provides the best fitting to option prices in which it has the lowest value error.
Investigation of non-Gaussian effects in the Brazilian option market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sosa-Correa, William O.; Ramos, Antônio M. T.; Vasconcelos, Giovani L.

2018-04-01

An empirical study of the Brazilian option market is presented in light of three option pricing models, namely the Black-Scholes model, the exponential model, and a model based on a power law distribution, the so-called q-Gaussian distribution or Tsallis distribution. It is found that the q-Gaussian model performs better than the Black-Scholes model in about one third of the option chains analyzed. But among these cases, the exponential model performs better than the q-Gaussian model in 75% of the time. The superiority of the exponential model over the q-Gaussian model is particularly impressive for options close to the expiration date, where its success rate rises above ninety percent.
Correlational Analysis of Ordinal Data: From Pearson's "r" to Bayesian Polychoric Correlation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Choi, Jaehwa; Peters, Michelle; Mueller, Ralph O.

2010-01-01

Correlational analyses are one of the most popular quantitative methods, yet also one of the mostly frequently misused methods in social and behavioral research, especially when analyzing ordinal data from Likert or other rating scales. Although several correlational analysis options have been developed for ordinal data, there seems to be a lack…
CMOL/CMOS hardware architectures and performance/price for Bayesian memory - The building block of intelligent systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaveri, Mazad Shaheriar

The semiconductor/computer industry has been following Moore's law for several decades and has reaped the benefits in speed and density of the resultant scaling. Transistor density has reached almost one billion per chip, and transistor delays are in picoseconds. However, scaling has slowed down, and the semiconductor industry is now facing several challenges. Hybrid CMOS/nano technologies, such as CMOL, are considered as an interim solution to some of the challenges. Another potential architectural solution includes specialized architectures for applications/models in the intelligent computing domain, one aspect of which includes abstract computational models inspired from the neuro/cognitive sciences. Consequently in this dissertation, we focus on the hardware implementations of Bayesian Memory (BM), which is a (Bayesian) Biologically Inspired Computational Model (BICM). This model is a simplified version of George and Hawkins' model of the visual cortex, which includes an inference framework based on Judea Pearl's belief propagation. We then present a "hardware design space exploration" methodology for implementing and analyzing the (digital and mixed-signal) hardware for the BM. This particular methodology involves: analyzing the computational/operational cost and the related micro-architecture, exploring candidate hardware components, proposing various custom hardware architectures using both traditional CMOS and hybrid nanotechnology - CMOL, and investigating the baseline performance/price of these architectures. The results suggest that CMOL is a promising candidate for implementing a BM. Such implementations can utilize the very high density storage/computation benefits of these new nano-scale technologies much more efficiently; for example, the throughput per 858 mm2 (TPM) obtained for CMOL based architectures is 32 to 40 times better than the TPM for a CMOS based multiprocessor/multi-FPGA system, and almost 2000 times better than the TPM for a PC implementation. We later use this methodology to investigate the hardware implementations of cortex-scale spiking neural system, which is an approximate neural equivalent of BICM based cortex-scale system. The results of this investigation also suggest that CMOL is a promising candidate to implement such large-scale neuromorphic systems. In general, the assessment of such hypothetical baseline hardware architectures provides the prospects for building large-scale (mammalian cortex-scale) implementations of neuromorphic/Bayesian/intelligent systems using state-of-the-art and beyond state-of-the-art silicon structures.
Models of supply function equilibrium with applications to the electricity industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aromi, J. Daniel

Electricity market design requires tools that result in a better understanding of incentives of generators and consumers. Chapter 1 and 2 provide tools and applications of these tools to analyze incentive problems in electricity markets. In chapter 1, models of supply function equilibrium (SFE) with asymmetric bidders are studied. I prove the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in an asymmetric SFE model. In addition, I propose a simple algorithm to calculate numerically the unique equilibrium. As an application, a model of investment decisions is considered that uses the asymmetric SFE as an input. In this model, firms can invest in different technologies, each characterized by distinct variable and fixed costs. In chapter 2, option contracts are introduced to a supply function equilibrium (SFE) model. The uniqueness of the equilibrium in the spot market is established. Comparative statics results on the effect of option contracts on the equilibrium price are presented. A multi-stage game where option contracts are traded before the spot market stage is considered. When contracts are optimally procured by a central authority, the selected profile of option contracts is such that the spot market price equals marginal cost for any load level resulting in a significant reduction in cost. If load serving entities (LSEs) are price takers, in equilibrium, there is no trade of option contracts. Even when LSEs have market power, the central authority's solution cannot be implemented in equilibrium. In chapter 3, we consider a game in which a buyer must repeatedly procure an input from a set of firms. In our model, the buyer is able to sign long term contracts that establish the likelihood with which the next period contract is awarded to an entrant or the incumbent. We find that the buyer finds it optimal to favor the incumbent, this generates more intense competition between suppliers. In a two period model we are able to completely characterize the optimal mechanism.
Selection of the open pit mining cut-off grade strategy under price uncertainty using a risk based multi-criteria ranking system / Wybór strategii określania warunku opłacalności wydobycia w kopalniach odkrywkowych w warunkach niepewności cen w oparciu o wielokryterialny system rankingowy z uwzględnieniem czynników ryzyka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azimi, Yousue; Osanloo, Montza; Esfahanipour, Akbar

2012-12-01

Cut-off Grade Strategy (COGS) is a concept that directly influences the financial, technical, economic, environmental, and legal issues in relation to exploitation of a mineral resource. A decision making system is proposed to select the best technically feasible COGS under price uncertainty. In the proposed system both the conventional discounted cash flow and modern simulation based real option valuations are used to evaluate the alternative strategies. Then the conventional expected value criterion and a multiple criteria ranking system were used to rank the strategies based on the two valuation methods. In the multiple criteria ranking system besides the expected value other stochastic orders expressing abilities of strategies in producing extra profits, minimizing losses and achieving the predefined goals of the exploitation strategy are considered. Finally, the best strategy is selected based on the overall average rank of strategies through all ranking systems. The proposed system was examined using the data of Sungun Copper Mine. To assess the merits of the alternatives better, ranking process was done at both high (prevailing economic condition) and low price conditions. Ranking results revealed that at different price conditions and valuation methods, different results would be obtained. It is concluded that these differences are due to the different behavior of the embedded option to close the mine early, which is more likely to be exercised under low price condition rather than high price condition. The proposed system would enhance the quality of decision making process by providing a more informative and certain platform for project evaluation.
48 CFR 3.501-2 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... submitted only for the total multiyear quantity; or (2) Priced options for additional quantities that... safeguards are available to the contracting officer to preclude recovery of buying-in losses (e.g...
48 CFR 3.501-2 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... submitted only for the total multiyear quantity; or (2) Priced options for additional quantities that... safeguards are available to the contracting officer to preclude recovery of buying-in losses (e.g...
Noncommutative Valuation of Options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herscovich, Estanislao

2016-12-01

The aim of this note is to show that the classical results in finance theory for pricing of derivatives, given by making use of the replication principle, can be extended to the noncommutative world. We believe that this could be of interest in quantum probability. The main result called the First fundamental theorem of asset pricing, states that a noncommutative stock market admits no-arbitrage if and only if it admits a noncommutative equivalent martingale probability.
Considerations for Solar Energy Technologies to Make Progress Towards Grid Price Parity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Woodhouse, Michael; Fu, Ran; Chung, Donald

2015-11-07

In this seminar the component costs for solar photovoltaics module and system prices will be highlighted. As a basis for comparison to other renewable and traditional energy options, the metric of focus will be total lifecycle cost-of-energy (LCOE). Several innovations to traditional photovoltaics technologies (including crystalline silicon, CdTe, and CIGS) and developing technologies (including organics and perovskites) that may close the gaps in LCOE will be discussed.
17 CFR 240.15c3-1f - Optional market and credit risk requirements for OTC derivatives dealers (Appendix F to 17 CFR...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... less than six months. Historical data sets must be updated at least every three months and reassessed... model which at a minimum must adhere to the criteria set forth in paragraph (e) of this Appendix F. The... theoretical pricing model contains the minimum pricing factors set forth in Appendix A (§ 240.15c3-1a). The...
Analytic solution for American strangle options using Laplace-Carson transforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Myungjoo; Jeon, Junkee; Han, Heejae; Lee, Somin

2017-06-01

A strangle has been important strategy for options when the trader believes there will be a large movement in the underlying asset but are uncertain of which way the movement will be. In this paper, we derive analytic formula for the price of American strangle options. American strangle options can be mathematically formulated into the free boundary problems involving two early exercise boundaries. By using Laplace-Carson Transform(LCT), we can derive the nonlinear system of equations satisfied by the transformed value of two free boundaries. We then solve this nonlinear system using Newton's method and finally get the free boundaries and option values using numerical Laplace inversion techniques. We also derive the Greeks for the American strangle options as well as the value of perpetual American strangle options. Furthermore, we present various graphs for the free boundaries and option values according to the change of parameters.
Learning from the implementation of residential optional time of use pricing in the United States electricity industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xibao

Residential time-of-use (TOU) rates have been in practice in the U.S. since the 1970s. However, for institutional, political, and regulatory reasons, only a very small proportion of residential customers are actually on these schedules. In this thesis, I explore why this is the case by empirically investigating two groups of questions: (1) On the "supply" side: Do utilities choose to offer TOU rates in residential sectors on their own initiative if state commissions do not order them to do so? Since utilities have other options, what is the relationship between the TOU rate and other alternatives? To answer these questions, I survey residential tariffs offered by more than 100 major investor-owned utilities, study the impact of various factors on utilities' rate-making behavior, and examine utility revealed preferences among four rate options: seasonal rates, inverted block rates, demand charges, and TOU rates. Estimated results suggest that the scale of residential sectors and the revenue contribution from residential sectors are the only two significant factors that influence utility decisions on offering TOU rates. Technical and economic considerations are not significant statistically. This implies that the little acceptance of TOU rates is partly attributed to utilities' inadequate attention to TOU rate design. (2) On the "demand" side: For utilities offering TOU tariffs, why do only a very small proportion of residential customers choose these tariffs? What factors influence customer choices? Unlike previous studies that used individual-level experimental data, this research employs actual aggregated information from 29 utilities offering optional TOU rates. By incorporating neo-classical demand analysis into an aggregated random coefficient logit model, I investigate the impact of both price and non-price tariff characteristics and non-tariff factors on customer choice behavior. The analysis indicates that customer pure tariff preference (which captures the effect of all unincluded factors) is a crucial obstacle to the public acceptance of TOU tariffs. Besides rate levels, non-price tariff characteristics and non-tariff factors are also important in influencing customer choice. It is observed that high income home owners have very different preferences than others.
An assessment of innovative pricing schemes for the communication of value: is price discrimination and two-part pricing a way forward?

PubMed

Hertzman, Peter; Miller, Paul; Tolley, Keith

2018-02-01

With the introduction of new expensive medicines, traditional pricing schemes based on constructs such as price per pill/vial have been challenged. Potential innovative schemes could be either financial-based or performance-based. Within financial-based schemes the use of price discrimination is an emerging option, which we explore in this assessment. Areas covered: In the short term the price per indication approach is likely to become more prevalent for high cost, high benefit new pharmaceuticals, such as those emerging in oncology (e.g. new combination immunotherapies). 'Two-Part Pricing' (2PP) is a frequently used payment method in other industries, which consists of an Entry Fee, giving the buyer the right to use the product, and a Usage Price charged every time the product is purchased. Introducing 2PP into biopharma could have cross-stakeholder benefits including broader patient access, and improvement in budget/revenue predictability. A concern however is the potential complexity of the negotiation between manufacturer and payer. Expert commentary: We believe 'price discrimination' and 2PP in particular can be relevant for some new, expensive specialist medicines. A recommended first step would be to initiate pilots to test to what degree the 2PP approach meets stakeholder objectives and is practical to implement within specialty care.
Do follow-on therapeutic substitutes induce price competition between hospital medicines? Evidence from the Danish hospital sector.

PubMed

Hostenkamp, Gisela

2013-06-01

The pricing of follow-on drugs, that offer only limited health benefits over existing therapeutic alternatives, is a recurring health policy debate. This study investigates whether follow-on therapeutic substitutes create price competition between branded hospital medicines. New follow-on drugs and their incumbent therapeutic competitors were identified from Danish sales and product registration data on hospital pharmaceuticals using medically relevant criteria. We examined whether follow-on drugs adopt lower prices than their incumbent competitors, and whether incumbent competitors react to entry of follow-ons through price adjustments using a random intercept panel model. We found no evidence that follow-on drugs adopt lower prices than their incumbent competitors. Furthermore, potentially due to low sample size, we found no evidence that prices for incumbent pioneer products were significantly reduced as a reaction to competition from follow-on drugs. Competition between patented therapeutic substitutes did not seem to increase price competition and containment of pharmaceutical expenditures in the Danish hospital market. Strengthening hospitals' incentives to consider the price of alternative treatment options paired with a more active formulary management may increase price competition between therapeutic substitutes in the Danish hospital sector in the future. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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