Science.gov

Sample records for bayesian phylogenetic analysis

  1. Estimating Bayesian Phylogenetic Information Content

    PubMed Central

    Lewis, Paul O.; Chen, Ming-Hui; Kuo, Lynn; Lewis, Louise A.; Fučíková, Karolina; Neupane, Suman; Wang, Yu-Bo; Shi, Daoyuan

    2016-01-01

    Measuring the phylogenetic information content of data has a long history in systematics. Here we explore a Bayesian approach to information content estimation. The entropy of the posterior distribution compared with the entropy of the prior distribution provides a natural way to measure information content. If the data have no information relevant to ranking tree topologies beyond the information supplied by the prior, the posterior and prior will be identical. Information in data discourages consideration of some hypotheses allowed by the prior, resulting in a posterior distribution that is more concentrated (has lower entropy) than the prior. We focus on measuring information about tree topology using marginal posterior distributions of tree topologies. We show that both the accuracy and the computational efficiency of topological information content estimation improve with use of the conditional clade distribution, which also allows topological information content to be partitioned by clade. We explore two important applications of our method: providing a compelling definition of saturation and detecting conflict among data partitions that can negatively affect analyses of concatenated data. [Bayesian; concatenation; conditional clade distribution; entropy; information; phylogenetics; saturation.] PMID:27155008

  2. A new African fossil caprin and a combined molecular and morphological Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of caprini (Mammalia: Bovidae).

    PubMed

    Bibi, F; Vrba, E; Fack, F

    2012-09-01

    Given that most species that have ever existed on Earth are extinct, no evolutionary history can ever be complete without the inclusion of fossil taxa. Bovids (antelopes and relatives) are one of the most diverse clades of large mammals alive today, with over a hundred living species and hundreds of documented fossil species. With the advent of molecular phylogenetics, major advances have been made in the phylogeny of this clade; however, there has been little attempt to integrate the fossil record into the developing phylogenetic picture. We here describe a new large fossil caprin species from ca. 1.9-Ma deposits from the Middle Awash, Ethiopia. To place the new species phylogenetically, we perform a Bayesian analysis of a combined molecular (cytochrome b) and morphological (osteological) character supermatrix. We include all living species of Caprini, the new fossil species, a fossil takin from the Pliocene of Ethiopia (Budorcas churcheri), and the insular subfossil Myotragus balearicus. The combined analysis demonstrates successful incorporation of both living and fossil species within a single phylogeny based on both molecular and morphological evidence. Analysis of the combined supermatrix produces superior resolution than with either the molecular or morphological data sets considered alone. Parsimony and Bayesian analyses of the data set are also compared and shown to produce similar results. The combined phylogenetic analysis indicates that the new fossil species is nested within Capra, making it one of the earliest representatives of this clade, with implications for molecular clock calibration. Geographical optimization indicates no less than four independent dispersals into Africa by caprins since the Pliocene.

  3. Evolutionary Analysis of Dengue Serotype 2 Viruses Using Phylogenetic and Bayesian Methods from New Delhi, India.

    PubMed

    Afreen, Nazia; Naqvi, Irshad H; Broor, Shobha; Ahmed, Anwar; Kazim, Syed Naqui; Dohare, Ravins; Kumar, Manoj; Parveen, Shama

    2016-03-01

    Dengue fever is the most important arboviral disease in the tropical and sub-tropical countries of the world. Delhi, the metropolitan capital state of India, has reported many dengue outbreaks, with the last outbreak occurring in 2013. We have recently reported predominance of dengue virus serotype 2 during 2011-2014 in Delhi. In the present study, we report molecular characterization and evolutionary analysis of dengue serotype 2 viruses which were detected in 2011-2014 in Delhi. Envelope genes of 42 DENV-2 strains were sequenced in the study. All DENV-2 strains grouped within the Cosmopolitan genotype and further clustered into three lineages; Lineage I, II and III. Lineage III replaced lineage I during dengue fever outbreak of 2013. Further, a novel mutation Thr404Ile was detected in the stem region of the envelope protein of a single DENV-2 strain in 2014. Nucleotide substitution rate and time to the most recent common ancestor were determined by molecular clock analysis using Bayesian methods. A change in effective population size of Indian DENV-2 viruses was investigated through Bayesian skyline plot. The study will be a vital road map for investigation of epidemiology and evolutionary pattern of dengue viruses in India.

  4. Evolutionary Analysis of Dengue Serotype 2 Viruses Using Phylogenetic and Bayesian Methods from New Delhi, India

    PubMed Central

    Afreen, Nazia; Naqvi, Irshad H.; Broor, Shobha; Ahmed, Anwar; Kazim, Syed Naqui; Dohare, Ravins; Kumar, Manoj; Parveen, Shama

    2016-01-01

    Dengue fever is the most important arboviral disease in the tropical and sub-tropical countries of the world. Delhi, the metropolitan capital state of India, has reported many dengue outbreaks, with the last outbreak occurring in 2013. We have recently reported predominance of dengue virus serotype 2 during 2011–2014 in Delhi. In the present study, we report molecular characterization and evolutionary analysis of dengue serotype 2 viruses which were detected in 2011–2014 in Delhi. Envelope genes of 42 DENV-2 strains were sequenced in the study. All DENV-2 strains grouped within the Cosmopolitan genotype and further clustered into three lineages; Lineage I, II and III. Lineage III replaced lineage I during dengue fever outbreak of 2013. Further, a novel mutation Thr404Ile was detected in the stem region of the envelope protein of a single DENV-2 strain in 2014. Nucleotide substitution rate and time to the most recent common ancestor were determined by molecular clock analysis using Bayesian methods. A change in effective population size of Indian DENV-2 viruses was investigated through Bayesian skyline plot. The study will be a vital road map for investigation of epidemiology and evolutionary pattern of dengue viruses in India. PMID:26977703

  5. Posterior Predictive Bayesian Phylogenetic Model Selection

    PubMed Central

    Lewis, Paul O.; Xie, Wangang; Chen, Ming-Hui; Fan, Yu; Kuo, Lynn

    2014-01-01

    We present two distinctly different posterior predictive approaches to Bayesian phylogenetic model selection and illustrate these methods using examples from green algal protein-coding cpDNA sequences and flowering plant rDNA sequences. The Gelfand–Ghosh (GG) approach allows dissection of an overall measure of model fit into components due to posterior predictive variance (GGp) and goodness-of-fit (GGg), which distinguishes this method from the posterior predictive P-value approach. The conditional predictive ordinate (CPO) method provides a site-specific measure of model fit useful for exploratory analyses and can be combined over sites yielding the log pseudomarginal likelihood (LPML) which is useful as an overall measure of model fit. CPO provides a useful cross-validation approach that is computationally efficient, requiring only a sample from the posterior distribution (no additional simulation is required). Both GG and CPO add new perspectives to Bayesian phylogenetic model selection based on the predictive abilities of models and complement the perspective provided by the marginal likelihood (including Bayes Factor comparisons) based solely on the fit of competing models to observed data. [Bayesian; conditional predictive ordinate; CPO; L-measure; LPML; model selection; phylogenetics; posterior predictive.] PMID:24193892

  6. Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages

    PubMed Central

    Drummond, Alexei J.; Stadler, Tanja

    2016-01-01

    Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth–death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the ‘morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Dating species divergences

  7. Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages.

    PubMed

    Drummond, Alexei J; Stadler, Tanja

    2016-07-19

    Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth-death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the 'morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Dating species divergences using

  8. Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages.

    PubMed

    Drummond, Alexei J; Stadler, Tanja

    2016-07-19

    Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth-death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the 'morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Dating species divergences using

  9. Posterior predictive Bayesian phylogenetic model selection.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Paul O; Xie, Wangang; Chen, Ming-Hui; Fan, Yu; Kuo, Lynn

    2014-05-01

    We present two distinctly different posterior predictive approaches to Bayesian phylogenetic model selection and illustrate these methods using examples from green algal protein-coding cpDNA sequences and flowering plant rDNA sequences. The Gelfand-Ghosh (GG) approach allows dissection of an overall measure of model fit into components due to posterior predictive variance (GGp) and goodness-of-fit (GGg), which distinguishes this method from the posterior predictive P-value approach. The conditional predictive ordinate (CPO) method provides a site-specific measure of model fit useful for exploratory analyses and can be combined over sites yielding the log pseudomarginal likelihood (LPML) which is useful as an overall measure of model fit. CPO provides a useful cross-validation approach that is computationally efficient, requiring only a sample from the posterior distribution (no additional simulation is required). Both GG and CPO add new perspectives to Bayesian phylogenetic model selection based on the predictive abilities of models and complement the perspective provided by the marginal likelihood (including Bayes Factor comparisons) based solely on the fit of competing models to observed data. PMID:24193892

  10. Bayesian analysis of new and old malaria parasite DNA sequence data demonstrates the need for more phylogenetic signal to clarify the descent of Plasmodium falciparum.

    PubMed

    Hagner, S C; Misof, B; Maier, W A; Kampen, H

    2007-08-01

    Molecular systematic studies published during the last 15 years to clarify the phylogenetic relationships among the malaria parasites have led to two major hypotheses on the descent of Plasmodium falciparum: One supports an avian origin as a result of a relatively recent host switch, and another one favours the evolutionary development of P. falciparum together with its human host from primate ancestors. In this paper, we present phylogenetic analyses of three different Plasmodium genes, the nuclear 18 small sub-unit (SSU) ribosomal ribonucleic acid (rRNA), the mitochondrial cytochrome b (cyt b) and the plastid caseinolytic protease C (ClpC) gene, using numerous haemosporidian parasite DNA sequences obtained from the GenBank as well as several new sequences for major malaria parasites including the avian one Plasmodium cathemerium, which has never been considered in molecular phylogenetic analyses before. Most modern and sophisticated DNA substitution models based on Bayesian inference analysis were applied to estimate the cyt b and ClpC phylogenetic trees, whereas the 18 SSU rRNA gene was examined with regards to its secondary structure using PHASE software. Our results indicate that the data presently available are generally neither sufficient in number nor in information to solve the problem of the phylogenetic origin of P. falciparum.

  11. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of Semitic languages identifies an Early Bronze Age origin of Semitic in the Near East

    PubMed Central

    Kitchen, Andrew; Ehret, Christopher; Assefa, Shiferaw; Mulligan, Connie J.

    2009-01-01

    The evolution of languages provides a unique opportunity to study human population history. The origin of Semitic and the nature of dispersals by Semitic-speaking populations are of great importance to our understanding of the ancient history of the Middle East and Horn of Africa. Semitic populations are associated with the oldest written languages and urban civilizations in the region, which gave rise to some of the world's first major religious and literary traditions. In this study, we employ Bayesian computational phylogenetic techniques recently developed in evolutionary biology to analyse Semitic lexical data by modelling language evolution and explicitly testing alternative hypotheses of Semitic history. We implement a relaxed linguistic clock to date language divergences and use epigraphic evidence for the sampling dates of extinct Semitic languages to calibrate the rate of language evolution. Our statistical tests of alternative Semitic histories support an initial divergence of Akkadian from ancestral Semitic over competing hypotheses (e.g. an African origin of Semitic). We estimate an Early Bronze Age origin for Semitic approximately 5750 years ago in the Levant, and further propose that contemporary Ethiosemitic languages of Africa reflect a single introduction of early Ethiosemitic from southern Arabia approximately 2800 years ago. PMID:19403539

  12. Bayesian Mediation Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

  13. Matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) and Bayesian phylogenetic analysis to characterize Candida clinical isolates.

    PubMed

    Angeletti, Silvia; Lo Presti, Alessandra; Cella, Eleonora; Dicuonzo, Giordano; Crea, Francesca; Palazzotti, Bernardetta; Dedej, Etleva; Ciccozzi, Massimo; De Florio, Lucia

    2015-12-01

    Clinical Candida isolates from two different hospitals in Rome were identified and clustered by MALDI-TOF MS system and their origin and evolution estimated by Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. The different species of Candida were correctly identified and clustered separately, confirming the ability of these techniques to discriminate between different Candida species. Focusing MALDI-TOF analysis on a single Candida species, Candida albicans and Candida parapsilosis strains clustered differently for hospital setting as well as for period of isolation than Candida glabrata and Candida tropicalis isolates. The evolutionary rates of C. albicans and C. parapsilosis (1.93×10(-2) and 1.17×10(-2)substitutions/site/year, respectively) were in agreement with a higher rate of mutation of these species, even in a narrow period, than what was observed in C. glabrata and C. tropicalis strains (6.99×10(-4) and 7.52×10(-3)substitutions/site/year, respectively). C. albicans resulted as the species with the highest between and within clades genetic distance values in agreement with the temporal-related clustering found by MALDI-TOF and the high evolutionary rate 1.93×10(-2)substitutions/site/year.

  14. Phylogenetic relationships of Plasmopara, Bremia and other genera of downy mildew pathogens with pyriform haustoria based on Bayesian analysis of partial LSU rDNA sequence data.

    PubMed

    Voglmayr, Hermann; Riethmüller, Alexandra; Göker, Markus; Weiss, Michael; Oberwinkler, Franz

    2004-09-01

    Bayesian and maximum parsimony phylogenetic analyses of 92 collections of the genera Basidiophora, Bremia, Paraperonospora, Phytophthora and Plasmopara were performed using nuclear large subunit ribosomal DNA sequences containing the D1 and D2 regions. In the Bayesian tree, two main clades were apparent: one clade containing Plasmopara pygmaea s. lat., Pl. sphaerosperma, Basidiophora, Bremia and Paraperonospora, and a clade containing all other Plasmopara species. Plasmopara is shown to be polyphyletic, and Pl. sphaerosperma is transferred to a new genus, Protobremia, for which also the oospore characteristics are described. Within the core Plasmopara clade, all collections originating from the same host family except from Asteraceae and Geraniaceae formed monophyletic clades; however, higher-level phylogenetic relationships lack significant branch support. A sister group relationship of Pl. sphaerosperma with Bremia lactucae is highly supported. Within Bremia lactucae s. l., three distinct clades are evident, which only partly conform to the published host specificity groups. All species of the genera Basidiophora, Bremia, Paraperonospora and Plasmopara included in the present study were investigated for haustorial morphology, and all had ellipsoid to pyriform haustoria, which are regarded as a diagnostic synapomorphy of the whole clade. Aspects of coevolution and cospeciation within the downy mildew pathogens with ellipsoid to pyriform haustoria are briefly discussed.

  15. Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.; Piatek, Rémi

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates from a high dimensional set of psychological measurements. PMID:25431517

  16. Tracing the roots of syntax with Bayesian phylogenetics

    PubMed Central

    Maurits, Luke; Griffiths, Thomas L.

    2014-01-01

    The ordering of subject, verb, and object is one of the fundamental components of the syntax of natural languages. The distribution of basic word orders across the world’s languages is highly nonuniform, with the majority of languages being either subject-object-verb (SOV) or subject-verb-object (SVO). Explaining this fact using psychological accounts of language acquisition or processing requires understanding how the present distribution has resulted from ancestral distributions and the rates of change between orders. We show that Bayesian phylogenetics can provide quantitative answers to three important questions: how word orders are likely to change over time, which word orders were dominant historically, and whether strong inferences about the origins of syntax can be drawn from modern languages. We find that SOV to SVO change is more common than the reverse and VSO to SVO change is more common than VSO to SOV, and that if the seven language families we consider share a common ancestor then that common ancestor likely had SOV word order, but also that there are limits on how confidently we can make inferences about ancestral word order based on modern-day observations. These results shed new light on old questions from historical linguistics and provide clear targets for psychological explanations of word-order distributions. PMID:25192934

  17. Tracing the roots of syntax with Bayesian phylogenetics.

    PubMed

    Maurits, Luke; Griffiths, Thomas L

    2014-09-16

    The ordering of subject, verb, and object is one of the fundamental components of the syntax of natural languages. The distribution of basic word orders across the world's languages is highly nonuniform, with the majority of languages being either subject-object-verb (SOV) or subject-verb-object (SVO). Explaining this fact using psychological accounts of language acquisition or processing requires understanding how the present distribution has resulted from ancestral distributions and the rates of change between orders. We show that Bayesian phylogenetics can provide quantitative answers to three important questions: how word orders are likely to change over time, which word orders were dominant historically, and whether strong inferences about the origins of syntax can be drawn from modern languages. We find that SOV to SVO change is more common than the reverse and VSO to SVO change is more common than VSO to SOV, and that if the seven language families we consider share a common ancestor then that common ancestor likely had SOV word order, but also that there are limits on how confidently we can make inferences about ancestral word order based on modern-day observations. These results shed new light on old questions from historical linguistics and provide clear targets for psychological explanations of word-order distributions.

  18. The evolutionary relationships and age of Homo naledi: An assessment using dated Bayesian phylogenetic methods.

    PubMed

    Dembo, Mana; Radovčić, Davorka; Garvin, Heather M; Laird, Myra F; Schroeder, Lauren; Scott, Jill E; Brophy, Juliet; Ackermann, Rebecca R; Musiba, Chares M; de Ruiter, Darryl J; Mooers, Arne Ø; Collard, Mark

    2016-08-01

    Homo naledi is a recently discovered species of fossil hominin from South Africa. A considerable amount is already known about H. naledi but some important questions remain unanswered. Here we report a study that addressed two of them: "Where does H. naledi fit in the hominin evolutionary tree?" and "How old is it?" We used a large supermatrix of craniodental characters for both early and late hominin species and Bayesian phylogenetic techniques to carry out three analyses. First, we performed a dated Bayesian analysis to generate estimates of the evolutionary relationships of fossil hominins including H. naledi. Then we employed Bayes factor tests to compare the strength of support for hypotheses about the relationships of H. naledi suggested by the best-estimate trees. Lastly, we carried out a resampling analysis to assess the accuracy of the age estimate for H. naledi yielded by the dated Bayesian analysis. The analyses strongly supported the hypothesis that H. naledi forms a clade with the other Homo species and Australopithecus sediba. The analyses were more ambiguous regarding the position of H. naledi within the (Homo, Au. sediba) clade. A number of hypotheses were rejected, but several others were not. Based on the available craniodental data, Homo antecessor, Asian Homo erectus, Homo habilis, Homo floresiensis, Homo sapiens, and Au. sediba could all be the sister taxon of H. naledi. According to the dated Bayesian analysis, the most likely age for H. naledi is 912 ka. This age estimate was supported by the resampling analysis. Our findings have a number of implications. Most notably, they support the assignment of the new specimens to Homo, cast doubt on the claim that H. naledi is simply a variant of H. erectus, and suggest H. naledi is younger than has been previously proposed.

  19. The evolutionary relationships and age of Homo naledi: An assessment using dated Bayesian phylogenetic methods.

    PubMed

    Dembo, Mana; Radovčić, Davorka; Garvin, Heather M; Laird, Myra F; Schroeder, Lauren; Scott, Jill E; Brophy, Juliet; Ackermann, Rebecca R; Musiba, Chares M; de Ruiter, Darryl J; Mooers, Arne Ø; Collard, Mark

    2016-08-01

    Homo naledi is a recently discovered species of fossil hominin from South Africa. A considerable amount is already known about H. naledi but some important questions remain unanswered. Here we report a study that addressed two of them: "Where does H. naledi fit in the hominin evolutionary tree?" and "How old is it?" We used a large supermatrix of craniodental characters for both early and late hominin species and Bayesian phylogenetic techniques to carry out three analyses. First, we performed a dated Bayesian analysis to generate estimates of the evolutionary relationships of fossil hominins including H. naledi. Then we employed Bayes factor tests to compare the strength of support for hypotheses about the relationships of H. naledi suggested by the best-estimate trees. Lastly, we carried out a resampling analysis to assess the accuracy of the age estimate for H. naledi yielded by the dated Bayesian analysis. The analyses strongly supported the hypothesis that H. naledi forms a clade with the other Homo species and Australopithecus sediba. The analyses were more ambiguous regarding the position of H. naledi within the (Homo, Au. sediba) clade. A number of hypotheses were rejected, but several others were not. Based on the available craniodental data, Homo antecessor, Asian Homo erectus, Homo habilis, Homo floresiensis, Homo sapiens, and Au. sediba could all be the sister taxon of H. naledi. According to the dated Bayesian analysis, the most likely age for H. naledi is 912 ka. This age estimate was supported by the resampling analysis. Our findings have a number of implications. Most notably, they support the assignment of the new specimens to Homo, cast doubt on the claim that H. naledi is simply a variant of H. erectus, and suggest H. naledi is younger than has been previously proposed. PMID:27457542

  20. Phylogenetic Analysis of Poliovirus Sequences.

    PubMed

    Jorba, Jaume

    2016-01-01

    Comparative genomic sequencing is a major surveillance tool in the Polio Laboratory Network. Due to the rapid evolution of polioviruses (~1 % per year), pathways of virus transmission can be reconstructed from the pathways of genomic evolution. Here, we describe three main phylogenetic methods; estimation of genetic distances, reconstruction of a maximum-likelihood (ML) tree, and estimation of substitution rates using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The data set used consists of complete capsid sequences from a survey of poliovirus sequences available in GenBank. PMID:26983737

  1. RevBayes: Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference Using Graphical Models and an Interactive Model-Specification Language

    PubMed Central

    Höhna, Sebastian; Landis, Michael J.

    2016-01-01

    Programs for Bayesian inference of phylogeny currently implement a unique and fixed suite of models. Consequently, users of these software packages are simultaneously forced to use a number of programs for a given study, while also lacking the freedom to explore models that have not been implemented by the developers of those programs. We developed a new open-source software package, RevBayes, to address these problems. RevBayes is entirely based on probabilistic graphical models, a powerful generic framework for specifying and analyzing statistical models. Phylogenetic-graphical models can be specified interactively in RevBayes, piece by piece, using a new succinct and intuitive language called Rev. Rev is similar to the R language and the BUGS model-specification language, and should be easy to learn for most users. The strength of RevBayes is the simplicity with which one can design, specify, and implement new and complex models. Fortunately, this tremendous flexibility does not come at the cost of slower computation; as we demonstrate, RevBayes outperforms competing software for several standard analyses. Compared with other programs, RevBayes has fewer black-box elements. Users need to explicitly specify each part of the model and analysis. Although this explicitness may initially be unfamiliar, we are convinced that this transparency will improve understanding of phylogenetic models in our field. Moreover, it will motivate the search for improvements to existing methods by brazenly exposing the model choices that we make to critical scrutiny. RevBayes is freely available at http://www.RevBayes.com. [Bayesian inference; Graphical models; MCMC; statistical phylogenetics.] PMID:27235697

  2. RevBayes: Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference Using Graphical Models and an Interactive Model-Specification Language.

    PubMed

    Höhna, Sebastian; Landis, Michael J; Heath, Tracy A; Boussau, Bastien; Lartillot, Nicolas; Moore, Brian R; Huelsenbeck, John P; Ronquist, Fredrik

    2016-07-01

    Programs for Bayesian inference of phylogeny currently implement a unique and fixed suite of models. Consequently, users of these software packages are simultaneously forced to use a number of programs for a given study, while also lacking the freedom to explore models that have not been implemented by the developers of those programs. We developed a new open-source software package, RevBayes, to address these problems. RevBayes is entirely based on probabilistic graphical models, a powerful generic framework for specifying and analyzing statistical models. Phylogenetic-graphical models can be specified interactively in RevBayes, piece by piece, using a new succinct and intuitive language called Rev. Rev is similar to the R language and the BUGS model-specification language, and should be easy to learn for most users. The strength of RevBayes is the simplicity with which one can design, specify, and implement new and complex models. Fortunately, this tremendous flexibility does not come at the cost of slower computation; as we demonstrate, RevBayes outperforms competing software for several standard analyses. Compared with other programs, RevBayes has fewer black-box elements. Users need to explicitly specify each part of the model and analysis. Although this explicitness may initially be unfamiliar, we are convinced that this transparency will improve understanding of phylogenetic models in our field. Moreover, it will motivate the search for improvements to existing methods by brazenly exposing the model choices that we make to critical scrutiny. RevBayes is freely available at http://www.RevBayes.com [Bayesian inference; Graphical models; MCMC; statistical phylogenetics.].

  3. RevBayes: Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference Using Graphical Models and an Interactive Model-Specification Language.

    PubMed

    Höhna, Sebastian; Landis, Michael J; Heath, Tracy A; Boussau, Bastien; Lartillot, Nicolas; Moore, Brian R; Huelsenbeck, John P; Ronquist, Fredrik

    2016-07-01

    Programs for Bayesian inference of phylogeny currently implement a unique and fixed suite of models. Consequently, users of these software packages are simultaneously forced to use a number of programs for a given study, while also lacking the freedom to explore models that have not been implemented by the developers of those programs. We developed a new open-source software package, RevBayes, to address these problems. RevBayes is entirely based on probabilistic graphical models, a powerful generic framework for specifying and analyzing statistical models. Phylogenetic-graphical models can be specified interactively in RevBayes, piece by piece, using a new succinct and intuitive language called Rev. Rev is similar to the R language and the BUGS model-specification language, and should be easy to learn for most users. The strength of RevBayes is the simplicity with which one can design, specify, and implement new and complex models. Fortunately, this tremendous flexibility does not come at the cost of slower computation; as we demonstrate, RevBayes outperforms competing software for several standard analyses. Compared with other programs, RevBayes has fewer black-box elements. Users need to explicitly specify each part of the model and analysis. Although this explicitness may initially be unfamiliar, we are convinced that this transparency will improve understanding of phylogenetic models in our field. Moreover, it will motivate the search for improvements to existing methods by brazenly exposing the model choices that we make to critical scrutiny. RevBayes is freely available at http://www.RevBayes.com [Bayesian inference; Graphical models; MCMC; statistical phylogenetics.]. PMID:27235697

  4. Bayesian analysis of rare events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Straub, Daniel; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

    2016-06-01

    In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

  5. Testing for Divergent Transmission Histories among Cultural Characters: A Study Using Bayesian Phylogenetic Methods and Iranian Tribal Textile Data

    PubMed Central

    Matthews, Luke J.; Tehrani, Jamie J.; Jordan, Fiona M.; Collard, Mark; Nunn, Charles L.

    2011-01-01

    Background Archaeologists and anthropologists have long recognized that different cultural complexes may have distinct descent histories, but they have lacked analytical techniques capable of easily identifying such incongruence. Here, we show how Bayesian phylogenetic analysis can be used to identify incongruent cultural histories. We employ the approach to investigate Iranian tribal textile traditions. Methods We used Bayes factor comparisons in a phylogenetic framework to test two models of cultural evolution: the hierarchically integrated system hypothesis and the multiple coherent units hypothesis. In the hierarchically integrated system hypothesis, a core tradition of characters evolves through descent with modification and characters peripheral to the core are exchanged among contemporaneous populations. In the multiple coherent units hypothesis, a core tradition does not exist. Rather, there are several cultural units consisting of sets of characters that have different histories of descent. Results For the Iranian textiles, the Bayesian phylogenetic analyses supported the multiple coherent units hypothesis over the hierarchically integrated system hypothesis. Our analyses suggest that pile-weave designs represent a distinct cultural unit that has a different phylogenetic history compared to other textile characters. Conclusions The results from the Iranian textiles are consistent with the available ethnographic evidence, which suggests that the commercial rug market has influenced pile-rug designs but not the techniques or designs incorporated in the other textiles produced by the tribes. We anticipate that Bayesian phylogenetic tests for inferring cultural units will be of great value for researchers interested in studying the evolution of cultural traits including language, behavior, and material culture. PMID:21559083

  6. Accurate Model Selection of Relaxed Molecular Clocks in Bayesian Phylogenetics

    PubMed Central

    Baele, Guy; Li, Wai Lok Sibon; Drummond, Alexei J.; Suchard, Marc A.; Lemey, Philippe

    2013-01-01

    Recent implementations of path sampling (PS) and stepping-stone sampling (SS) have been shown to outperform the harmonic mean estimator (HME) and a posterior simulation-based analog of Akaike’s information criterion through Markov chain Monte Carlo (AICM), in Bayesian model selection of demographic and molecular clock models. Almost simultaneously, a Bayesian model averaging approach was developed that avoids conditioning on a single model but averages over a set of relaxed clock models. This approach returns estimates of the posterior probability of each clock model through which one can estimate the Bayes factor in favor of the maximum a posteriori (MAP) clock model; however, this Bayes factor estimate may suffer when the posterior probability of the MAP model approaches 1. Here, we compare these two recent developments with the HME, stabilized/smoothed HME (sHME), and AICM, using both synthetic and empirical data. Our comparison shows reassuringly that MAP identification and its Bayes factor provide similar performance to PS and SS and that these approaches considerably outperform HME, sHME, and AICM in selecting the correct underlying clock model. We also illustrate the importance of using proper priors on a large set of empirical data sets. PMID:23090976

  7. [Phylogenetic analysis of Pleurotus species].

    PubMed

    Shnyreva, A A; Shnyreva, A V

    2015-02-01

    We performed phylogenetic analysis for ten Pleurotus species, based on internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences of rDNA. A phylogenetic tree was constructed on the basis of 31 oyster fungi strains of different origin and 10 reference sequences from GenBank. Our analysis demonstrates that the tested Pleurotus species are of monophyletic origin. We evaluated the evolutionary distances between these species. Classic genetic analysis of sexual compatibility based on monocaryon (mon)-mon crosses showed no reproductive barriers within the P. cornucopiae-P. euosmus species complex. Thus, despite the divergence (subclustering) between commercial strains and natural isolates of P. ostreatus revealed by phylogenetic analysis, there is no reproductive isolation between these groups. A common allele of the matB locus was identified for the commercial strains Sommer and L/4, supporting the common origin of these strains. PMID:25966583

  8. Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to explore Bayesian model averaging in the propensity score context. Previous research on Bayesian propensity score analysis does not take into account model uncertainty. In this regard, an internally consistent Bayesian framework for model building and estimation must also account for model uncertainty. The…

  9. Fair-balance paradox, star-tree paradox, and Bayesian phylogenetics.

    PubMed

    Yang, Ziheng

    2007-08-01

    The star-tree paradox refers to the conjecture that the posterior probabilities for the three unrooted trees for four species (or the three rooted trees for three species if the molecular clock is assumed) do not approach 1/3 when the data are generated using the star tree and when the amount of data approaches infinity. It reflects the more general phenomenon of high and presumably spurious posterior probabilities for trees or clades produced by the Bayesian method of phylogenetic reconstruction, and it is perceived to be a manifestation of the deeper problem of the extreme sensitivity of Bayesian model selection to the prior on parameters. Analysis of the star-tree paradox has been hampered by the intractability of the integrals involved. In this article, I use Laplacian expansion to approximate the posterior probabilities for the three rooted trees for three species using binary characters evolving at a constant rate. The approximation enables calculation of posterior tree probabilities for arbitrarily large data sets. Both theoretical analysis of the analogous fair-coin and fair-balance problems and computer simulation for the tree problem confirmed the existence of the star-tree paradox. When the data size n --> infinity, the posterior tree probabilities do not converge to 1/3 each, but they vary among data sets according to a statistical distribution. This distribution is characterized. Two strategies for resolving the star-tree paradox are explored: (1) a nonzero prior probability for the degenerate star tree and (2) an increasingly informative prior forcing the internal branch length toward zero. Both appear to be effective in resolving the paradox, but the latter is simpler to implement. The posterior tree probabilities are found to be very sensitive to the prior.

  10. Geometric ergodicity of a hybrid sampler for Bayesian inference of phylogenetic branch lengths.

    PubMed

    Spade, David A; Herbei, Radu; Kubatko, Laura S

    2015-10-01

    One of the fundamental goals in phylogenetics is to make inferences about the evolutionary pattern among a group of individuals, such as genes or species, using present-day genetic material. This pattern is represented by a phylogenetic tree, and as computational methods have caught up to the statistical theory, Bayesian methods of making inferences about phylogenetic trees have become increasingly popular. Bayesian inference of phylogenetic trees requires sampling from intractable probability distributions. Common methods of sampling from these distributions include Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, and one way that both of these methods can proceed is by first simulating a tree topology and then taking a sample from the posterior distribution of the branch lengths given the tree topology and the data set. In many MCMC methods, it is difficult to verify that the underlying Markov chain is geometrically ergodic, and thus, it is necessary to rely on output-based convergence diagnostics in order to assess convergence on an ad hoc basis. These diagnostics suffer from several important limitations, so in an effort to circumvent these limitations, this work establishes geometric convergence for a particular Markov chain that is used to sample branch lengths under a fairly general class of nucleotide substitution models and provides a numerical method for estimating the time this Markov chain takes to converge.

  11. Voxelwise Bayesian Lesion Deficit Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Rong; Hillis, Argye E.; Pawlak, Mikolaj; Herskovits, Edward H

    2008-01-01

    Relating cognitive deficits to the presence of lesions has been an important means of delineating structure-function associations in the human brain. We propose a voxel-based Bayesian method for lesion-deficit analysis, which identifies complex linear or nonlinear associations among brain-lesion locations, and neurological status. We validated this method using a simulated data set, and we applied this algorithm to data obtained from an acute-stroke study to identify associations among voxels with infarct or hypoperfusion, and impaired word reading. We found that a distributed region involving Brodmann areas (BA) 22, 37, 39, and 40 was implicated in word reading. PMID:18328733

  12. Phylogenetic analysis of ancient DNA using BEAST.

    PubMed

    Ho, Simon Y W

    2012-01-01

    Under exceptional circumstances, it is possible to obtain DNA sequences from samples that are up to hundreds of thousands of years old. These data provide an opportunity to look directly at past genetic diversity, to trace the evolutionary process through time, and to infer demographic and phylogeographic trends. Ancient DNA (aDNA) data sets have some degree of intrinsic temporal structure because the sequences have been obtained from samples of different ages. When analyzing these data sets, it is usually necessary to take the sampling times into account. A number of phylogenetic methods have been designed with this purpose in mind. Here I describe the steps involved in Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of aDNA data. I outline a procedure that can be used to co-estimate the genealogical relationships, mutation rate, evolutionary timescale, and demographic history of the study species in a single analytical framework. A number of modifications to the methodology can be made in order to deal with complicating factors such as postmortem damage, sequences from undated samples, and data sets with low information content.

  13. Phylogenetic analysis of ancient DNA using BEAST.

    PubMed

    Ho, Simon Y W

    2012-01-01

    Under exceptional circumstances, it is possible to obtain DNA sequences from samples that are up to hundreds of thousands of years old. These data provide an opportunity to look directly at past genetic diversity, to trace the evolutionary process through time, and to infer demographic and phylogeographic trends. Ancient DNA (aDNA) data sets have some degree of intrinsic temporal structure because the sequences have been obtained from samples of different ages. When analyzing these data sets, it is usually necessary to take the sampling times into account. A number of phylogenetic methods have been designed with this purpose in mind. Here I describe the steps involved in Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of aDNA data. I outline a procedure that can be used to co-estimate the genealogical relationships, mutation rate, evolutionary timescale, and demographic history of the study species in a single analytical framework. A number of modifications to the methodology can be made in order to deal with complicating factors such as postmortem damage, sequences from undated samples, and data sets with low information content. PMID:22237538

  14. Phylogenetic analysis of otospiralin protein

    PubMed Central

    Torktaz, Ibrahim; Behjati, Mohaddeseh; Rostami, Amin

    2016-01-01

    Background: Fibrocyte-specific protein, otospiralin, is a small protein, widely expressed in the central nervous system as neuronal cell bodies and glia. The increased expression of otospiralin in reactive astrocytes implicates its role in signaling pathways and reparative mechanisms subsequent to injury. Indeed, otospiralin is considered to be essential for the survival of fibrocytes of the mesenchymal nonsensory regions of the cochlea. It seems that other functions of this protein are not yet completely understood. Materials and Methods: Amino acid sequences of otospiralin from 12 vertebrates were derived from National Center for Biotechnology Information database. Phylogenetic analysis and phylogeny estimation were performed using MEGA 5.0.5 program, and neighbor-joining tree was constructed by this software. Results: In this computational study, the phylogenetic tree of otospiralin has been investigated. Therefore, dendrograms of otospiralin were depicted. Alignment performed in MUSCLE method by UPGMB algorithm. Also, entropy plot determined for a better illustration of amino acid variations in this protein. Conclusion: In the present study, we used otospiralin sequence of 12 different species and by constructing phylogenetic tree, we suggested out group for some related species. PMID:27099854

  15. Phylogenetic analysis of adenovirus sequences.

    PubMed

    Harrach, Balázs; Benko, Mária

    2007-01-01

    Members of the family Adenoviridae have been isolated from a large variety of hosts, including representatives from every major vertebrate class from fish to mammals. The high prevalence, together with the fairly conserved organization of the central part of their genomes, make the adenoviruses one of (if not the) best models for studying viral evolution on a larger time scale. Phylogenetic calculation can infer the evolutionary distance among adenovirus strains on serotype, species, and genus levels, thus helping the establishment of a correct taxonomy on the one hand, and speeding up the process of typing new isolates on the other. Initially, four major lineages corresponding to four genera were recognized. Later, the demarcation criteria of lower taxon levels, such as species or types, could also be defined with phylogenetic calculations. A limited number of possible host switches have been hypothesized and convincingly supported. Application of the web-based BLAST and MultAlin programs and the freely available PHYLIP package, along with the TreeView program, enables everyone to make correct calculations. In addition to step-by-step instruction on how to perform phylogenetic analysis, critical points where typical mistakes or misinterpretation of the results might occur will be identified and hints for their avoidance will be provided. PMID:17656792

  16. Phylogenetic analysis of adenovirus sequences.

    PubMed

    Harrach, Balázs; Benko, Mária

    2007-01-01

    Members of the family Adenoviridae have been isolated from a large variety of hosts, including representatives from every major vertebrate class from fish to mammals. The high prevalence, together with the fairly conserved organization of the central part of their genomes, make the adenoviruses one of (if not the) best models for studying viral evolution on a larger time scale. Phylogenetic calculation can infer the evolutionary distance among adenovirus strains on serotype, species, and genus levels, thus helping the establishment of a correct taxonomy on the one hand, and speeding up the process of typing new isolates on the other. Initially, four major lineages corresponding to four genera were recognized. Later, the demarcation criteria of lower taxon levels, such as species or types, could also be defined with phylogenetic calculations. A limited number of possible host switches have been hypothesized and convincingly supported. Application of the web-based BLAST and MultAlin programs and the freely available PHYLIP package, along with the TreeView program, enables everyone to make correct calculations. In addition to step-by-step instruction on how to perform phylogenetic analysis, critical points where typical mistakes or misinterpretation of the results might occur will be identified and hints for their avoidance will be provided.

  17. Estimating the Effective Sample Size of Tree Topologies from Bayesian Phylogenetic Analyses

    PubMed Central

    Lanfear, Robert; Hua, Xia; Warren, Dan L.

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian phylogenetic analyses estimate posterior distributions of phylogenetic tree topologies and other parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Before making inferences from these distributions, it is important to assess their adequacy. To this end, the effective sample size (ESS) estimates how many truly independent samples of a given parameter the output of the MCMC represents. The ESS of a parameter is frequently much lower than the number of samples taken from the MCMC because sequential samples from the chain can be non-independent due to autocorrelation. Typically, phylogeneticists use a rule of thumb that the ESS of all parameters should be greater than 200. However, we have no method to calculate an ESS of tree topology samples, despite the fact that the tree topology is often the parameter of primary interest and is almost always central to the estimation of other parameters. That is, we lack a method to determine whether we have adequately sampled one of the most important parameters in our analyses. In this study, we address this problem by developing methods to estimate the ESS for tree topologies. We combine these methods with two new diagnostic plots for assessing posterior samples of tree topologies, and compare their performance on simulated and empirical data sets. Combined, the methods we present provide new ways to assess the mixing and convergence of phylogenetic tree topologies in Bayesian MCMC analyses. PMID:27435794

  18. Phylogenetic relationships and biogeography of the desert plant genus Fagonia (Zygophyllaceae), inferred by parsimony and Bayesian model averaging.

    PubMed

    Beier, B-A; Nylander, J A A; Chase, M W; Thulin, M

    2004-10-01

    Phylogenetic relationships within Fagonia were inferred from analyses of plastid trnL intron and nuclear ribosomal ITS DNA sequences. Sampling of the genus was nearly complete, including 32 of 34 species. Phylogenetic analysis was carried out using parsimony, and Bayesian model averaging. The latter method allows model-based inference while accounting for model-selection uncertainty, and is here used for the first time in phylogenetic analyses. All species of Fagonia in the Old World, except F. cretica, form a weakly supported clade, and all Fagonia species of the New World, except F. scoparia, are well supported as sister to the Old World clade. Fagonia scoparia, from Mexico, and F. cretica, from Northern Africa, are well supported as sisters to all other Fagonia species. Vicariance-dispersal analysis, using DIVA, indicated that the occurrences of Fagonia in South America and southern Africa are due to dispersals, and also, that the ancestor of Fagonia had a distribution compatible with the boreotropics hypothesis. PMID:15324841

  19. Phylogenetic analysis of the spirochetes.

    PubMed Central

    Paster, B J; Dewhirst, F E; Weisburg, W G; Tordoff, L A; Fraser, G J; Hespell, R B; Stanton, T B; Zablen, L; Mandelco, L; Woese, C R

    1991-01-01

    The 16S rRNA sequences were determined for species of Spirochaeta, Treponema, Borrelia, Leptospira, Leptonema, and Serpula, using a modified Sanger method of direct RNA sequencing. Analysis of aligned 16S rRNA sequences indicated that the spirochetes form a coherent taxon composed of six major clusters or groups. The first group, termed the treponemes, was divided into two subgroups. The first treponeme subgroup consisted of Treponema pallidum, Treponema phagedenis, Treponema denticola, a thermophilic spirochete strain, and two species of Spirochaeta, Spirochaeta zuelzerae and Spirochaeta stenostrepta, with an average interspecies similarity of 89.9%. The second treponeme subgroup contained Treponema bryantii, Treponema pectinovorum, Treponema saccharophilum, Treponema succinifaciens, and rumen strain CA, with an average interspecies similarity of 86.2%. The average interspecies similarity between the two treponeme subgroups was 84.2%. The division of the treponemes into two subgroups was verified by single-base signature analysis. The second spirochete group contained Spirochaeta aurantia, Spirochaeta halophila, Spirochaeta bajacaliforniensis, Spirochaeta litoralis, and Spirochaeta isovalerica, with an average similarity of 87.4%. The Spirochaeta group was related to the treponeme group, with an average similarity of 81.9%. The third spirochete group contained borrelias, including Borrelia burgdorferi, Borrelia anserina, Borrelia hermsii, and a rabbit tick strain. The borrelias formed a tight phylogenetic cluster, with average similarity of 97%. THe borrelia group shared a common branch with the Spirochaeta group and was closer to this group than to the treponemes. A single spirochete strain isolated fromt the shew constituted the fourth group. The fifth group was composed of strains of Serpula (Treponema) hyodysenteriae and Serpula (Treponema) innocens. The two species of this group were closely related, with a similarity of greater than 99%. Leptonema illini

  20. The evolution of ecomorphological traits within the Abrothrichini (Rodentia: Sigmodontinae): a Bayesian phylogenetics approach.

    PubMed

    Rodríguez-Serrano, Enrique; Palma, R Eduardo; Hernández, Cristián E

    2008-08-01

    The generally accepted hypothesis regarding the origin of fossorial mammals proposes adaptive convergence from open environments towards the use of subterranean environments. We evaluated this hypothesis for South American mole-mice using conventional and Bayesian frameworks, with independent evidence. By using a molecular approach based on Cytochrome b and IRBP sequences, we evaluated phylogenetic relationships, time of origin, the ancestral trait of fossoriality, and ancestral distributions of species belonging to the Andean Clade (Rodentia: Sigmodontinae). Our results indicate that the Andean Clade is highly sustained; with one clade grouping all fossorial forms and another grouping all cursorial species. We hypothesized that fossoriality originated in the Miocene/Pliocene transition, in the Temperate Forests of southern South America. We conclude that the origin of fossorial ecomorphological traits did not necessarily occur under a general model of open environments, the origin of these traits depends on the ecological-historical relationship of the taxon with the environment.

  1. Phylogenetics.

    PubMed

    Sleator, Roy D

    2011-04-01

    The recent rapid expansion in the DNA and protein databases, arising from large-scale genomic and metagenomic sequence projects, has forced significant development in the field of phylogenetics: the study of the evolutionary relatedness of the planet's inhabitants. Advances in phylogenetic analysis have greatly transformed our view of the landscape of evolutionary biology, transcending the view of the tree of life that has shaped evolutionary theory since Darwinian times. Indeed, modern phylogenetic analysis no longer focuses on the restricted Darwinian-Mendelian model of vertical gene transfer, but must also consider the significant degree of lateral gene transfer, which connects and shapes almost all living things. Herein, I review the major tree-building methods, their strengths, weaknesses and future prospects. PMID:21249334

  2. Bayesian analysis for kaon photoproduction

    SciTech Connect

    Marsainy, T. Mart, T.

    2014-09-25

    We have investigated contribution of the nucleon resonances in the kaon photoproduction process by using an established statistical decision making method, i.e. the Bayesian method. This method does not only evaluate the model over its entire parameter space, but also takes the prior information and experimental data into account. The result indicates that certain resonances have larger probabilities to contribute to the process.

  3. A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A. G.

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are…

  4. An Integrated Bayesian Model for DIF Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Soares, Tufi M.; Goncalves, Flavio B.; Gamerman, Dani

    2009-01-01

    In this article, an integrated Bayesian model for differential item functioning (DIF) analysis is proposed. The model is integrated in the sense of modeling the responses along with the DIF analysis. This approach allows DIF detection and explanation in a simultaneous setup. Previous empirical studies and/or subjective beliefs about the item…

  5. Phylogenetic analysis of trophic associations.

    PubMed

    Ives, A R; Godfray, H C J

    2006-07-01

    Ecologists frequently collect data on the patterns of association between adjacent trophic levels in the form of binary or quantitative food webs. Here, we develop statistical methods to estimate the roles of consumer and resource phylogenies in explaining patterns of consumer-resource association. We use these methods to ask whether closely related consumer species are more likely to attack the same resource species and whether closely related resource species are more likely to be attacked by the same consumer species. We then show how to use estimates of phylogenetic signals to predict novel consumer-resource associations solely from the phylogenetic position of species for which no other (or only partial) data are available. Finally, we show how to combine phylogenetic information with information about species' ecological characteristics and life-history traits to estimate the effects of species traits on consumer-resource associations while accounting for phylogenies. We illustrate these techniques using a food web comprising species of parasitoids, leaf-mining moths, and their host plants.

  6. Heterogeneous Factor Analysis Models: A Bayesian Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ansari, Asim; Jedidi, Kamel; Dube, Laurette

    2002-01-01

    Developed Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedures to perform Bayesian inference, model checking, and model comparison in heterogeneous factor analysis. Tested the approach with synthetic data and data from a consumption emotion study involving 54 consumers. Results show that traditional psychometric methods cannot fully capture the heterogeneity in…

  7. Bayesian Inference of the Evolution of a Phenotype Distribution on a Phylogenetic Tree

    PubMed Central

    Ansari, M. Azim; Didelot, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    The distribution of a phenotype on a phylogenetic tree is often a quantity of interest. Many phenotypes have imperfect heritability, so that a measurement of the phenotype for an individual can be thought of as a single realization from the phenotype distribution of that individual. If all individuals in a phylogeny had the same phenotype distribution, measured phenotypes would be randomly distributed on the tree leaves. This is, however, often not the case, implying that the phenotype distribution evolves over time. Here we propose a new model based on this principle of evolving phenotype distribution on the branches of a phylogeny, which is different from ancestral state reconstruction where the phenotype itself is assumed to evolve. We develop an efficient Bayesian inference method to estimate the parameters of our model and to test the evidence for changes in the phenotype distribution. We use multiple simulated data sets to show that our algorithm has good sensitivity and specificity properties. Since our method identifies branches on the tree on which the phenotype distribution has changed, it is able to break down a tree into components for which this distribution is unique and constant. We present two applications of our method, one investigating the association between HIV genetic variation and human leukocyte antigen and the other studying host range distribution in a lineage of Salmonella enterica, and we discuss many other potential applications. PMID:27412711

  8. Mesoamerican tree squirrels evolution (Rodentia: Sciuridae): a molecular phylogenetic analysis.

    PubMed

    Villalobos, Federico; Gutierrez-Espeleta, Gustavo

    2014-06-01

    The tribe Sciurini comprehends the genera Sciurus, Syntheosiurus, Microsciurus, Tamiasciurus and Rheinthrosciurus. The phylogenetic relationships within Sciurus have been only partially done, and the relationship between Mesoamerican species remains unsolved. The phylogenetic relationships of the Mesoamerican tree squirrels were examined using molecular data. Sequence data publicly available (12S, 16S, CYTB mitochondrial genes and IRBP nuclear gene) and cytochrome B gene sequences of four previously not sampled Mesoamerican Sciurus species were analyzed under a Bayesian multispecies coalescence model. Phylogenetic analysis of the multilocus data set showed the neotropical tree squirrels as a monophyletic clade. The genus Sciurus was paraphyletic due to the inclusion of Microsciurus species (M. alfari and M. flaviventer). The South American species S. aestuans and S. stramineus showed a sister taxa relationship. Single locus analysis based on the most compact and complete data set (i.e. CYTB gene sequences), supported the monophyly of the South American species and recovered a Mesoamerican clade including S. aureogaster, S. granatensis and S. variegatoides. These results corroborated previous findings based on cladistic analysis of cranial and post-cranial characters. Our data support a close relationship between Mesoamerican Sciurus species and a sister relationship with South American species, and corroborates previous findings in relation to the polyphyly of Microsciurus and Syntheosciurus paraphyly.

  9. Bayesian Correlation Analysis for Sequence Count Data

    PubMed Central

    Lau, Nelson; Perkins, Theodore J.

    2016-01-01

    Evaluating the similarity of different measured variables is a fundamental task of statistics, and a key part of many bioinformatics algorithms. Here we propose a Bayesian scheme for estimating the correlation between different entities’ measurements based on high-throughput sequencing data. These entities could be different genes or miRNAs whose expression is measured by RNA-seq, different transcription factors or histone marks whose expression is measured by ChIP-seq, or even combinations of different types of entities. Our Bayesian formulation accounts for both measured signal levels and uncertainty in those levels, due to varying sequencing depth in different experiments and to varying absolute levels of individual entities, both of which affect the precision of the measurements. In comparison with a traditional Pearson correlation analysis, we show that our Bayesian correlation analysis retains high correlations when measurement confidence is high, but suppresses correlations when measurement confidence is low—especially for entities with low signal levels. In addition, we consider the influence of priors on the Bayesian correlation estimate. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that naive, uniform priors on entities’ signal levels can lead to highly biased correlation estimates, particularly when different experiments have widely varying sequencing depths. However, we propose two alternative priors that provably mitigate this problem. We also prove that, like traditional Pearson correlation, our Bayesian correlation calculation constitutes a kernel in the machine learning sense, and thus can be used as a similarity measure in any kernel-based machine learning algorithm. We demonstrate our approach on two RNA-seq datasets and one miRNA-seq dataset. PMID:27701449

  10. A Bayesian nonparametric meta-analysis model.

    PubMed

    Karabatsos, George; Talbott, Elizabeth; Walker, Stephen G

    2015-03-01

    In a meta-analysis, it is important to specify a model that adequately describes the effect-size distribution of the underlying population of studies. The conventional normal fixed-effect and normal random-effects models assume a normal effect-size population distribution, conditionally on parameters and covariates. For estimating the mean overall effect size, such models may be adequate, but for prediction, they surely are not if the effect-size distribution exhibits non-normal behavior. To address this issue, we propose a Bayesian nonparametric meta-analysis model, which can describe a wider range of effect-size distributions, including unimodal symmetric distributions, as well as skewed and more multimodal distributions. We demonstrate our model through the analysis of real meta-analytic data arising from behavioral-genetic research. We compare the predictive performance of the Bayesian nonparametric model against various conventional and more modern normal fixed-effects and random-effects models.

  11. Phylogenetic analysis of Maverick/Polinton giant transposons across organisms.

    PubMed

    Haapa-Paananen, Saija; Wahlberg, Niklas; Savilahti, Harri

    2014-09-01

    Polintons are a recently discovered group of large transposable elements (<40Kb in size) encoding up to 10 different proteins. The increasing number of genome sequencing projects has led to the discovery of these elements in genomes of protists, fungi, and animals, but not in plants. The RepBase database of eukaryotic repetitive elements currently contains consensus sequences and information of 70 Polinton elements from 28 organisms. Previous phylogenetic analyses have shown the relationship of Polintons to linear plasmids, bacteriophages, and retroviruses. However, a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of all known Polintons has been lacking. We retrieved the Polinton consensus sequences from the most recent version of RepBase, and compiled amino acid sequences for the two most common Polinton-specific genes, the DNA polymerase-B and retroviral-like integrase. Open reading frame predictions and homology comparisons revealed partial or full sequences for 54 polymerases and 55 Polinton integrases. Multiple sequence alignments portrayed conservation in several functional motifs of these proteins. Phylogenetic analyses based on Bayesian inference using single- and combined-gene datasets revealed seven distinct lineages of Polintons that broadly follow the tree of life. Two of the seven lineages are found within the same species, indicating that ancient divergences have been retained to this day.

  12. Phylogenetic systematics and biogeography of hummingbirds: Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses of partitioned data and selection of an appropriate partitioning strategy.

    PubMed

    McGuire, Jimmy A; Witt, Christopher C; Altshuler, Douglas L; Remsen, J V

    2007-10-01

    Hummingbirds are an important model system in avian biology, but to date the group has been the subject of remarkably few phylogenetic investigations. Here we present partitioned Bayesian and maximum likelihood phylogenetic analyses for 151 of approximately 330 species of hummingbirds and 12 outgroup taxa based on two protein-coding mitochondrial genes (ND2 and ND4), flanking tRNAs, and two nuclear introns (AK1 and BFib). We analyzed these data under several partitioning strategies ranging between unpartitioned and a maximum of nine partitions. In order to select a statistically justified partitioning strategy following partitioned Bayesian analysis, we considered four alternative criteria including Bayes factors, modified versions of the Akaike information criterion for small sample sizes (AIC(c)), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and a decision-theoretic methodology (DT). Following partitioned maximum likelihood analyses, we selected a best-fitting strategy using hierarchical likelihood ratio tests (hLRTS), the conventional AICc, BIC, and DT, concluding that the most stringent criterion, the performance-based DT, was the most appropriate methodology for selecting amongst partitioning strategies. In the context of our well-resolved and well-supported phylogenetic estimate, we consider the historical biogeography of hummingbirds using ancestral state reconstructions of (1) primary geographic region of occurrence (i.e., South America, Central America, North America, Greater Antilles, Lesser Antilles), (2) Andean or non-Andean geographic distribution, and (3) minimum elevational occurrence. These analyses indicate that the basal hummingbird assemblages originated in the lowlands of South America, that most of the principle clades of hummingbirds (all but Mountain Gems and possibly Bees) originated on this continent, and that there have been many (at least 30) independent invasions of other primary landmasses, especially Central America.

  13. Complete mitochondrial genome of Cervus elaphus songaricus (Cetartiodactyla: Cervinae) and a phylogenetic analysis with related species.

    PubMed

    Li, Yiqing; Ba, Hengxing; Yang, Fuhe

    2016-01-01

    Complete mitochondrial genome of Tianshan wapiti, Cervus elaphus songaricus, is 16,419 bp in length and contains 13 protein-coding genes, 2 rRNA genes, 22 tRNA genes and 1 control region. The phylogenetic trees were reconstructed with the concatenated nucleotide sequences of the 13 protein-coding genes using maximum parsimony (MP) and Bayesian inference (BI) methods. MP and BI phylogenetic trees here showed an identical tree topology. The monopoly of red deer, wapiti and sika deer was well supported, and wapiti was found to share a closer relationship with sika deer. Tianshan wapiti shared a closer relationship with xanthopygus than yarkandensis. Rusa unicolor and Rucervus eldi were given a basal phylogenetic position. Our phylogenetic analysis provided a robust phylogenetic resolution spanning the entire evolutionary relationship of the subfamily Cervinae. PMID:24725059

  14. A SAS Interface for Bayesian Analysis with WinBUGS

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Zhiyong; McArdle, John J.; Wang, Lijuan; Hamagami, Fumiaki

    2008-01-01

    Bayesian methods are becoming very popular despite some practical difficulties in implementation. To assist in the practical application of Bayesian methods, we show how to implement Bayesian analysis with WinBUGS as part of a standard set of SAS routines. This implementation procedure is first illustrated by fitting a multiple regression model…

  15. [Analysis phylogenetic relationship of Gynostemma (Cucurbitaceae)].

    PubMed

    Qin, Shuang-shuang; Li, Hai-tao; Wang, Zhou-yong; Cui, Zhan-hu; Yu, Li-ying

    2015-05-01

    The sequences of ITS, matK, rbcL and psbA-trnH of 9 Gynostemma species or variety including 38 samples were compared and analyzed by molecular phylogeny method. Hemsleya macrosperma was designated as outgroup. The MP and NJ phylogenetic tree of Gynostemma was built based on ITS sequence, the results of PAUP phylogenetic analysis showed the following results: (1) The eight individuals of G. pentaphyllum var. pentaphyllum were not supported as monophyletic in the strict consensus trees and NJ trees. (2) It is suspected whether G. longipes and G. laxum should be classified as the independent species. (3)The classification of subgenus units of Gynostemma plants is supported.

  16. Bayesian Analysis of Individual Level Personality Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Cripps, Edward; Wood, Robert E; Beckmann, Nadin; Lau, John; Beckmann, Jens F; Cripps, Sally Ann

    2016-01-01

    A Bayesian technique with analyses of within-person processes at the level of the individual is presented. The approach is used to examine whether the patterns of within-person responses on a 12-trial simulation task are consistent with the predictions of ITA theory (Dweck, 1999). ITA theory states that the performance of an individual with an entity theory of ability is more likely to spiral down following a failure experience than the performance of an individual with an incremental theory of ability. This is because entity theorists interpret failure experiences as evidence of a lack of ability which they believe is largely innate and therefore relatively fixed; whilst incremental theorists believe in the malleability of abilities and interpret failure experiences as evidence of more controllable factors such as poor strategy or lack of effort. The results of our analyses support ITA theory at both the within- and between-person levels of analyses and demonstrate the benefits of Bayesian techniques for the analysis of within-person processes. These include more formal specification of the theory and the ability to draw inferences about each individual, which allows for more nuanced interpretations of individuals within a personality category, such as differences in the individual probabilities of spiraling. While Bayesian techniques have many potential advantages for the analyses of processes at the level of the individual, ease of use is not one of them for psychologists trained in traditional frequentist statistical techniques.

  17. Bayesian model selection analysis of WMAP3

    SciTech Connect

    Parkinson, David; Mukherjee, Pia; Liddle, Andrew R.

    2006-06-15

    We present a Bayesian model selection analysis of WMAP3 data using our code CosmoNest. We focus on the density perturbation spectral index n{sub S} and the tensor-to-scalar ratio r, which define the plane of slow-roll inflationary models. We find that while the Bayesian evidence supports the conclusion that n{sub S}{ne}1, the data are not yet powerful enough to do so at a strong or decisive level. If tensors are assumed absent, the current odds are approximately 8 to 1 in favor of n{sub S}{ne}1 under our assumptions, when WMAP3 data is used together with external data sets. WMAP3 data on its own is unable to distinguish between the two models. Further, inclusion of r as a parameter weakens the conclusion against the Harrison-Zel'dovich case (n{sub S}=1, r=0), albeit in a prior-dependent way. In appendices we describe the CosmoNest code in detail, noting its ability to supply posterior samples as well as to accurately compute the Bayesian evidence. We make a first public release of CosmoNest, now available at www.cosmonest.org.

  18. Bayesian Analysis of Individual Level Personality Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Cripps, Edward; Wood, Robert E; Beckmann, Nadin; Lau, John; Beckmann, Jens F; Cripps, Sally Ann

    2016-01-01

    A Bayesian technique with analyses of within-person processes at the level of the individual is presented. The approach is used to examine whether the patterns of within-person responses on a 12-trial simulation task are consistent with the predictions of ITA theory (Dweck, 1999). ITA theory states that the performance of an individual with an entity theory of ability is more likely to spiral down following a failure experience than the performance of an individual with an incremental theory of ability. This is because entity theorists interpret failure experiences as evidence of a lack of ability which they believe is largely innate and therefore relatively fixed; whilst incremental theorists believe in the malleability of abilities and interpret failure experiences as evidence of more controllable factors such as poor strategy or lack of effort. The results of our analyses support ITA theory at both the within- and between-person levels of analyses and demonstrate the benefits of Bayesian techniques for the analysis of within-person processes. These include more formal specification of the theory and the ability to draw inferences about each individual, which allows for more nuanced interpretations of individuals within a personality category, such as differences in the individual probabilities of spiraling. While Bayesian techniques have many potential advantages for the analyses of processes at the level of the individual, ease of use is not one of them for psychologists trained in traditional frequentist statistical techniques. PMID:27486415

  19. Bayesian Analysis of Individual Level Personality Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Cripps, Edward; Wood, Robert E.; Beckmann, Nadin; Lau, John; Beckmann, Jens F.; Cripps, Sally Ann

    2016-01-01

    A Bayesian technique with analyses of within-person processes at the level of the individual is presented. The approach is used to examine whether the patterns of within-person responses on a 12-trial simulation task are consistent with the predictions of ITA theory (Dweck, 1999). ITA theory states that the performance of an individual with an entity theory of ability is more likely to spiral down following a failure experience than the performance of an individual with an incremental theory of ability. This is because entity theorists interpret failure experiences as evidence of a lack of ability which they believe is largely innate and therefore relatively fixed; whilst incremental theorists believe in the malleability of abilities and interpret failure experiences as evidence of more controllable factors such as poor strategy or lack of effort. The results of our analyses support ITA theory at both the within- and between-person levels of analyses and demonstrate the benefits of Bayesian techniques for the analysis of within-person processes. These include more formal specification of the theory and the ability to draw inferences about each individual, which allows for more nuanced interpretations of individuals within a personality category, such as differences in the individual probabilities of spiraling. While Bayesian techniques have many potential advantages for the analyses of processes at the level of the individual, ease of use is not one of them for psychologists trained in traditional frequentist statistical techniques. PMID:27486415

  20. On the analysis of phylogenetically paired designs

    PubMed Central

    Funk, Jennifer L; Rakovski, Cyril S; Macpherson, J Michael

    2015-01-01

    As phylogenetically controlled experimental designs become increasingly common in ecology, the need arises for a standardized statistical treatment of these datasets. Phylogenetically paired designs circumvent the need for resolved phylogenies and have been used to compare species groups, particularly in the areas of invasion biology and adaptation. Despite the widespread use of this approach, the statistical analysis of paired designs has not been critically evaluated. We propose a mixed model approach that includes random effects for pair and species. These random effects introduce a “two-layer” compound symmetry variance structure that captures both the correlations between observations on related species within a pair as well as the correlations between the repeated measurements within species. We conducted a simulation study to assess the effect of model misspecification on Type I and II error rates. We also provide an illustrative example with data containing taxonomically similar species and several outcome variables of interest. We found that a mixed model with species and pair as random effects performed better in these phylogenetically explicit simulations than two commonly used reference models (no or single random effect) by optimizing Type I error rates and power. The proposed mixed model produces acceptable Type I and II error rates despite the absence of a phylogenetic tree. This design can be generalized to a variety of datasets to analyze repeated measurements in clusters of related subjects/species. PMID:25750719

  1. A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

    PubMed Central

    van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B; Neyer, Franz J; van Aken, Marcel AG

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are introduced using a simplified example. Thereafter, the advantages and pitfalls of the specification of prior knowledge are discussed. To illustrate Bayesian methods explained in this study, in a second example a series of studies that examine the theoretical framework of dynamic interactionism are considered. In the Discussion the advantages and disadvantages of using Bayesian statistics are reviewed, and guidelines on how to report on Bayesian statistics are provided. PMID:24116396

  2. Bayesian global analysis of neutrino oscillation data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bergström, Johannes; Gonzalez-Garcia, M. C.; Maltoni, Michele; Schwetz, Thomas

    2015-09-01

    We perform a Bayesian analysis of current neutrino oscillation data. When estimating the oscillation parameters we find that the results generally agree with those of the χ 2 method, with some differences involving s 23 2 and CP-violating effects. We discuss the additional subtleties caused by the circular nature of the CP-violating phase, and how it is possible to obtain correlation coefficients with s 23 2 . When performing model comparison, we find that there is no significant evidence for any mass ordering, any octant of s 23 2 or a deviation from maximal mixing, nor the presence of CP-violation.

  3. Detecting Network Communities: An Application to Phylogenetic Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Andrade, Roberto F. S.; Rocha-Neto, Ivan C.; Santos, Leonardo B. L.; de Santana, Charles N.; Diniz, Marcelo V. C.; Lobão, Thierry Petit; Goés-Neto, Aristóteles; Pinho, Suani T. R.; El-Hani, Charbel N.

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a new method to identify communities in generally weighted complex networks and apply it to phylogenetic analysis. In this case, weights correspond to the similarity indexes among protein sequences, which can be used for network construction so that the network structure can be analyzed to recover phylogenetically useful information from its properties. The analyses discussed here are mainly based on the modular character of protein similarity networks, explored through the Newman-Girvan algorithm, with the help of the neighborhood matrix . The most relevant networks are found when the network topology changes abruptly revealing distinct modules related to the sets of organisms to which the proteins belong. Sound biological information can be retrieved by the computational routines used in the network approach, without using biological assumptions other than those incorporated by BLAST. Usually, all the main bacterial phyla and, in some cases, also some bacterial classes corresponded totally (100%) or to a great extent (>70%) to the modules. We checked for internal consistency in the obtained results, and we scored close to 84% of matches for community pertinence when comparisons between the results were performed. To illustrate how to use the network-based method, we employed data for enzymes involved in the chitin metabolic pathway that are present in more than 100 organisms from an original data set containing 1,695 organisms, downloaded from GenBank on May 19, 2007. A preliminary comparison between the outcomes of the network-based method and the results of methods based on Bayesian, distance, likelihood, and parsimony criteria suggests that the former is as reliable as these commonly used methods. We conclude that the network-based method can be used as a powerful tool for retrieving modularity information from weighted networks, which is useful for phylogenetic analysis. PMID:21573202

  4. Bayesian residual analysis for beta-binomial regression models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pires, Rubiane Maria; Diniz, Carlos Alberto Ribeiro

    2012-10-01

    The beta-binomial regression model is an alternative model to the sum of any sequence of equicorrelated binary variables with common probability of success p. In this work a Bayesian perspective of this model is presented considering different link functions and different correlation structures. A general Bayesian residual analysis for this model, a issue which is often neglected in Bayesian analysis, using the residuals based on the predicted values obtained by the conditional predictive ordinate [1], the residuals based on the posterior distribution of the model parameters [2] and the Bayesian deviance residual [3] are presented in order to check the assumptions in the model.

  5. Sequence and Phylogenetic Analysis of FAD Synthetase

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schubert, Luisa; Frago, Susana; Martínez-Júlvez, Marta; Medina, Milagros

    2006-08-01

    An evolutionary analysis of the sequences available till now for FAD synthetases has been carried out. Several identical conserved residues have been observed along the sequences of all the FAD synthetases analyzed, which might correlate with role for these residues in the catalytic activity of the enzyme. Phylogenetic analysis shows that FAD synthetase sequences can be organized in two main clusters. One of them mainly contains temperature, pressure or pH resistant organisms, whereas in the other one organisms with pathogenic character can be found.

  6. Phylogenetic and Biogeographic Analysis of Sphaerexochine Trilobites

    PubMed Central

    Congreve, Curtis R.; Lieberman, Bruce S.

    2011-01-01

    Background Sphaerexochinae is a speciose and widely distributed group of cheirurid trilobites. Their temporal range extends from the earliest Ordovician through the Silurian, and they survived the end Ordovician mass extinction event (the second largest mass extinction in Earth history). Prior to this study, the individual evolutionary relationships within the group had yet to be determined utilizing rigorous phylogenetic methods. Understanding these evolutionary relationships is important for producing a stable classification of the group, and will be useful in elucidating the effects the end Ordovician mass extinction had on the evolutionary and biogeographic history of the group. Methodology/Principal Findings Cladistic parsimony analysis of cheirurid trilobites assigned to the subfamily Sphaerexochinae was conducted to evaluate phylogenetic patterns and produce a hypothesis of relationship for the group. This study utilized the program TNT, and the analysis included thirty-one taxa and thirty-nine characters. The results of this analysis were then used in a Lieberman-modified Brooks Parsimony Analysis to analyze biogeographic patterns during the Ordovician-Silurian. Conclusions/Significance The genus Sphaerexochus was found to be monophyletic, consisting of two smaller clades (one composed entirely of Ordovician species and another composed of Silurian and Ordovician species). By contrast, the genus Kawina was found to be paraphyletic. It is a basal grade that also contains taxa formerly assigned to Cydonocephalus. Phylogenetic patterns suggest Sphaerexochinae is a relatively distinctive trilobite clade because it appears to have been largely unaffected by the end Ordovician mass extinction. Finally, the biogeographic analysis yields two major conclusions about Sphaerexochus biogeography: Bohemia and Avalonia were close enough during the Silurian to exchange taxa; and during the Ordovician there was dispersal between Eastern Laurentia and the Yangtze block

  7. PAML 4: phylogenetic analysis by maximum likelihood.

    PubMed

    Yang, Ziheng

    2007-08-01

    PAML, currently in version 4, is a package of programs for phylogenetic analyses of DNA and protein sequences using maximum likelihood (ML). The programs may be used to compare and test phylogenetic trees, but their main strengths lie in the rich repertoire of evolutionary models implemented, which can be used to estimate parameters in models of sequence evolution and to test interesting biological hypotheses. Uses of the programs include estimation of synonymous and nonsynonymous rates (d(N) and d(S)) between two protein-coding DNA sequences, inference of positive Darwinian selection through phylogenetic comparison of protein-coding genes, reconstruction of ancestral genes and proteins for molecular restoration studies of extinct life forms, combined analysis of heterogeneous data sets from multiple gene loci, and estimation of species divergence times incorporating uncertainties in fossil calibrations. This note discusses some of the major applications of the package, which includes example data sets to demonstrate their use. The package is written in ANSI C, and runs under Windows, Mac OSX, and UNIX systems. It is available at -- (http://abacus.gene.ucl.ac.uk/software/paml.html).

  8. The Application of Bayesian Analysis to Issues in Developmental Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walker, Lawrence J.; Gustafson, Paul; Frimer, Jeremy A.

    2007-01-01

    This article reviews the concepts and methods of Bayesian statistical analysis, which can offer innovative and powerful solutions to some challenging analytical problems that characterize developmental research. In this article, we demonstrate the utility of Bayesian analysis, explain its unique adeptness in some circumstances, address some…

  9. Bayesian Analysis of High Dimensional Classification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukhopadhyay, Subhadeep; Liang, Faming

    2009-12-01

    Modern data mining and bioinformatics have presented an important playground for statistical learning techniques, where the number of input variables is possibly much larger than the sample size of the training data. In supervised learning, logistic regression or probit regression can be used to model a binary output and form perceptron classification rules based on Bayesian inference. In these cases , there is a lot of interest in searching for sparse model in High Dimensional regression(/classification) setup. we first discuss two common challenges for analyzing high dimensional data. The first one is the curse of dimensionality. The complexity of many existing algorithms scale exponentially with the dimensionality of the space and by virtue of that algorithms soon become computationally intractable and therefore inapplicable in many real applications. secondly, multicollinearities among the predictors which severely slowdown the algorithm. In order to make Bayesian analysis operational in high dimension we propose a novel 'Hierarchical stochastic approximation monte carlo algorithm' (HSAMC), which overcomes the curse of dimensionality, multicollinearity of predictors in high dimension and also it possesses the self-adjusting mechanism to avoid the local minima separated by high energy barriers. Models and methods are illustrated by simulation inspired from from the feild of genomics. Numerical results indicate that HSAMC can work as a general model selection sampler in high dimensional complex model space.

  10. Bayesian analysis on gravitational waves and exoplanets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Xihao

    Attempts to detect gravitational waves using a pulsar timing array (PTA), i.e., a collection of pulsars in our Galaxy, have become more organized over the last several years. PTAs act to detect gravitational waves generated from very distant sources by observing the small and correlated effect the waves have on pulse arrival times at the Earth. In this thesis, I present advanced Bayesian analysis methods that can be used to search for gravitational waves in pulsar timing data. These methods were also applied to analyze a set of radial velocity (RV) data collected by the Hobby- Eberly Telescope on observing a K0 giant star. They confirmed the presence of two Jupiter mass planets around a K0 giant star and also characterized the stellar p-mode oscillation. The first part of the thesis investigates the effect of wavefront curvature on a pulsar's response to a gravitational wave. In it we show that we can assume the gravitational wave phasefront is planar across the array only if the source luminosity distance " 2piL2/lambda, where L is the pulsar distance to the Earth (˜ kpc) and lambda is the radiation wavelength (˜ pc) in the PTA waveband. Correspondingly, for a point gravitational wave source closer than ˜ 100 Mpc, we should take into account the effect of wavefront curvature across the pulsar-Earth line of sight, which depends on the luminosity distance to the source, when evaluating the pulsar timing response. As a consequence, if a PTA can detect a gravitational wave from a source closer than ˜ 100 Mpc, the effects of wavefront curvature on the response allows us to determine the source luminosity distance. The second and third parts of the thesis propose a new analysis method based on Bayesian nonparametric regression to search for gravitational wave bursts and a gravitational wave background in PTA data. Unlike the conventional Bayesian analysis that introduces a signal model with a fixed number of parameters, Bayesian nonparametric regression sets

  11. Optimal sequential Bayesian analysis for degradation tests.

    PubMed

    Rodríguez-Narciso, Silvia; Christen, J Andrés

    2016-07-01

    Degradation tests are especially difficult to conduct for items with high reliability. Test costs, caused mainly by prolonged item duration and item destruction costs, establish the necessity of sequential degradation test designs. We propose a methodology that sequentially selects the optimal observation times to measure the degradation, using a convenient rule that maximizes the inference precision and minimizes test costs. In particular our objective is to estimate a quantile of the time to failure distribution, where the degradation process is modelled as a linear model using Bayesian inference. The proposed sequential analysis is based on an index that measures the expected discrepancy between the estimated quantile and its corresponding prediction, using Monte Carlo methods. The procedure was successfully implemented for simulated and real data.

  12. A Distance Measure for Genome Phylogenetic Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Minh Duc; Allison, Lloyd; Dix, Trevor

    Phylogenetic analyses of species based on single genes or parts of the genomes are often inconsistent because of factors such as variable rates of evolution and horizontal gene transfer. The availability of more and more sequenced genomes allows phylogeny construction from complete genomes that is less sensitive to such inconsistency. For such long sequences, construction methods like maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood are often not possible due to their intensive computational requirement. Another class of tree construction methods, namely distance-based methods, require a measure of distances between any two genomes. Some measures such as evolutionary edit distance of gene order and gene content are computational expensive or do not perform well when the gene content of the organisms are similar. This study presents an information theoretic measure of genetic distances between genomes based on the biological compression algorithm expert model. We demonstrate that our distance measure can be applied to reconstruct the consensus phylogenetic tree of a number of Plasmodium parasites from their genomes, the statistical bias of which would mislead conventional analysis methods. Our approach is also used to successfully construct a plausible evolutionary tree for the γ-Proteobacteria group whose genomes are known to contain many horizontally transferred genes.

  13. Bayesian data analysis in population ecology: motivations, methods, and benefits

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, Robert

    2016-01-01

    During the 20th century ecologists largely relied on the frequentist system of inference for the analysis of their data. However, in the past few decades ecologists have become increasingly interested in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this article I provide guidance to ecologists who would like to decide whether Bayesian methods can be used to improve their conclusions and predictions. I begin by providing a concise summary of Bayesian methods of analysis, including a comparison of differences between Bayesian and frequentist approaches to inference when using hierarchical models. Next I provide a list of problems where Bayesian methods of analysis may arguably be preferred over frequentist methods. These problems are usually encountered in analyses based on hierarchical models of data. I describe the essentials required for applying modern methods of Bayesian computation, and I use real-world examples to illustrate these methods. I conclude by summarizing what I perceive to be the main strengths and weaknesses of using Bayesian methods to solve ecological inference problems.

  14. Ockham's razor and Bayesian analysis. [statistical theory for systems evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jefferys, William H.; Berger, James O.

    1992-01-01

    'Ockham's razor', the ad hoc principle enjoining the greatest possible simplicity in theoretical explanations, is presently shown to be justifiable as a consequence of Bayesian inference; Bayesian analysis can, moreover, clarify the nature of the 'simplest' hypothesis consistent with the given data. By choosing the prior probabilities of hypotheses, it becomes possible to quantify the scientific judgment that simpler hypotheses are more likely to be correct. Bayesian analysis also shows that a hypothesis with fewer adjustable parameters intrinsically possesses an enhanced posterior probability, due to the clarity of its predictions.

  15. Coherent Bayesian analysis of inspiral signals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Röver, Christian; Meyer, Renate; Guidi, Gianluca M.; Viceré, Andrea; Christensen, Nelson

    2007-10-01

    In this paper we present a Bayesian parameter estimation method for the analysis of interferometric gravitational wave observations of an inspiral of binary compact objects using data recorded simultaneously by a network of several interferometers at different sites. We consider neutron star or black hole inspirals that are modeled to 3.5 post-Newtonian (PN) order in phase and 2.5 PN in amplitude. Inference is facilitated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods that are adapted in order to efficiently explore the particular parameter space. Examples are shown to illustrate how and what information about the different parameters can be derived from the data. This study uses simulated signals and data with noise characteristics that are assumed to be defined by the LIGO and Virgo detectors operating at their design sensitivities. Nine parameters are estimated, including those associated with the binary system plus its location on the sky. We explain how this technique will be part of a detection pipeline for binary systems of compact objects with masses up to 20 M_{\\odot} , including cases where the ratio of the individual masses can be extreme.

  16. Bayesian Analysis of the Cosmic Microwave Background

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jewell, Jeffrey

    2007-01-01

    There is a wealth of cosmological information encoded in the spatial power spectrum of temperature anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background! Experiments designed to map the microwave sky are returning a flood of data (time streams of instrument response as a beam is swept over the sky) at several different frequencies (from 30 to 900 GHz), all with different resolutions and noise properties. The resulting analysis challenge is to estimate, and quantify our uncertainty in, the spatial power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background given the complexities of "missing data", foreground emission, and complicated instrumental noise. Bayesian formulation of this problem allows consistent treatment of many complexities including complicated instrumental noise and foregrounds, and can be numerically implemented with Gibbs sampling. Gibbs sampling has now been validated as an efficient, statistically exact, and practically useful method for low-resolution (as demonstrated on WMAP 1 and 3 year temperature and polarization data). Continuing development for Planck - the goal is to exploit the unique capabilities of Gibbs sampling to directly propagate uncertainties in both foreground and instrument models to total uncertainty in cosmological parameters.

  17. Bayesian analysis of the backreaction models

    SciTech Connect

    Kurek, Aleksandra; Bolejko, Krzysztof; Szydlowski, Marek

    2010-03-15

    We present a Bayesian analysis of four different types of backreaction models, which are based on the Buchert equations. In this approach, one considers a solution to the Einstein equations for a general matter distribution and then an average of various observable quantities is taken. Such an approach became of considerable interest when it was shown that it could lead to agreement with observations without resorting to dark energy. In this paper we compare the {Lambda}CDM model and the backreaction models with type Ia supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations, and cosmic microwave background data, and find that the former is favored. However, the tested models were based on some particular assumptions about the relation between the average spatial curvature and the backreaction, as well as the relation between the curvature and curvature index. In this paper we modified the latter assumption, leaving the former unchanged. We find that, by varying the relation between the curvature and curvature index, we can obtain a better fit. Therefore, some further work is still needed--in particular, the relation between the backreaction and the curvature should be revisited in order to fully determine the feasibility of the backreaction models to mimic dark energy.

  18. Bayesian analysis of a disability model for lung cancer survival.

    PubMed

    Armero, C; Cabras, S; Castellanos, M E; Perra, S; Quirós, A; Oruezábal, M J; Sánchez-Rubio, J

    2016-02-01

    Bayesian reasoning, survival analysis and multi-state models are used to assess survival times for Stage IV non-small-cell lung cancer patients and the evolution of the disease over time. Bayesian estimation is done using minimum informative priors for the Weibull regression survival model, leading to an automatic inferential procedure. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have been used for approximating posterior distributions and the Bayesian information criterion has been considered for covariate selection. In particular, the posterior distribution of the transition probabilities, resulting from the multi-state model, constitutes a very interesting tool which could be useful to help oncologists and patients make efficient and effective decisions.

  19. Bayesian analysis of MEG visual evoked responses

    SciTech Connect

    Schmidt, D.M.; George, J.S.; Wood, C.C.

    1999-04-01

    The authors developed a method for analyzing neural electromagnetic data that allows probabilistic inferences to be drawn about regions of activation. The method involves the generation of a large number of possible solutions which both fir the data and prior expectations about the nature of probable solutions made explicit by a Bayesian formalism. In addition, they have introduced a model for the current distributions that produce MEG and (EEG) data that allows extended regions of activity, and can easily incorporate prior information such as anatomical constraints from MRI. To evaluate the feasibility and utility of the Bayesian approach with actual data, they analyzed MEG data from a visual evoked response experiment. They compared Bayesian analyses of MEG responses to visual stimuli in the left and right visual fields, in order to examine the sensitivity of the method to detect known features of human visual cortex organization. They also examined the changing pattern of cortical activation as a function of time.

  20. Interpretation of bootstrap values in phylogenetic analysis.

    PubMed

    Wiesemüller, Bernhard; Rothe, Hartmut

    2006-06-01

    Bootstrap Analysis is a common tool in cladistics, and consequently many authors tend to believe that it could be close to a test of monophyly. In fact, it is only a procedure to calculate the redundancy of a certain character pattern among taxa. To demonstrate this, we set up a study with questionable data: Four skulls of great apes and humans were digitally photographed, and the pixels' brightness values were simply transformed to a one-zero-matrix, which was then used to calculate a Wagner tree with PHYLIP. As a rule, the higher the resolution of the photos is, the higher are the bootstrap values of supported taxa (and the lower are the bootstrap values of non-supported data). Redundancy of intertaxic information might indeed be an indicator of phylogenetic relationship, but can also be due to other reasons, like functional-adaptive needs in morphology, or semantic needs in a DNA-code. As a result, we tend to believe that high bootstrap values are actually less important than low ones. It is safer, based on a low bootstrap value, to claim that a certain taxon is not well supported by certain data. Therefore, we recommend discussions of low bootstrap values in future publications. PMID:16850767

  1. A predictive Bayesian approach to risk analysis in health care

    PubMed Central

    Aven, Terje; Eidesen, Karianne

    2007-01-01

    Background The Bayesian approach is now widely recognised as a proper framework for analysing risk in health care. However, the traditional text-book Bayesian approach is in many cases difficult to implement, as it is based on abstract concepts and modelling. Methods The essential points of the risk analyses conducted according to the predictive Bayesian approach are identification of observable quantities, prediction and uncertainty assessments of these quantities, using all the relevant information. The risk analysis summarizes the knowledge and lack of knowledge concerning critical operations and other activities, and give in this way a basis for making rational decisions. Results It is shown that Bayesian risk analysis can be significantly simplified and made more accessible compared to the traditional text-book Bayesian approach by focusing on predictions of observable quantities and performing uncertainty assessments of these quantities using subjective probabilities. Conclusion The predictive Bayesian approach provides a framework for ensuring quality of risk analysis. The approach acknowledges that risk cannot be adequately described and evaluated simply by reference to summarising probabilities. Risk is defined by the combination of possible consequences and associated uncertainties. PMID:17714597

  2. Bayesian methods for the design and analysis of noninferiority trials.

    PubMed

    Gamalo-Siebers, Margaret; Gao, Aijun; Lakshminarayanan, Mani; Liu, Guanghan; Natanegara, Fanni; Railkar, Radha; Schmidli, Heinz; Song, Guochen

    2016-01-01

    The gold standard for evaluating treatment efficacy of a medical product is a placebo-controlled trial. However, when the use of placebo is considered to be unethical or impractical, a viable alternative for evaluating treatment efficacy is through a noninferiority (NI) study where a test treatment is compared to an active control treatment. The minimal objective of such a study is to determine whether the test treatment is superior to placebo. An assumption is made that if the active control treatment remains efficacious, as was observed when it was compared against placebo, then a test treatment that has comparable efficacy with the active control, within a certain range, must also be superior to placebo. Because of this assumption, the design, implementation, and analysis of NI trials present challenges for sponsors and regulators. In designing and analyzing NI trials, substantial historical data are often required on the active control treatment and placebo. Bayesian approaches provide a natural framework for synthesizing the historical data in the form of prior distributions that can effectively be used in design and analysis of a NI clinical trial. Despite a flurry of recent research activities in the area of Bayesian approaches in medical product development, there are still substantial gaps in recognition and acceptance of Bayesian approaches in NI trial design and analysis. The Bayesian Scientific Working Group of the Drug Information Association provides a coordinated effort to target the education and implementation issues on Bayesian approaches for NI trials. In this article, we provide a review of both frequentist and Bayesian approaches in NI trials, and elaborate on the implementation for two common Bayesian methods including hierarchical prior method and meta-analytic-predictive approach. Simulations are conducted to investigate the properties of the Bayesian methods, and some real clinical trial examples are presented for illustration.

  3. Histological data in a combined phylogenetic analysis of scleractinian reef corals.

    PubMed

    Cordie, David R; Budd, Ann F

    2016-04-01

    Scleractinian systematics have undergone rapid changes due to increased use of molecular phylogenetics and new perspectives on skeletal morphology from micromorphology and microstructure. Despite this increase in characters there are still unresolved clades in the phylogeny, indicating that more characters are needed. This study investigates a new source of morphological data within the soft tissue of Indo-Pacific scleractinian corals. Features of tissue layers, especially cnidocytes, are described in hematoxylin and eosin stained thin sections. Based on this new histological data source, a combined analysis with mitochondrial DNA and skeletal data is performed using parsimony and Bayesian analysis. Parsimony analysis yields three most-parsimonious trees similar to trees based on Bayesian analysis. Character maps are also produced that show origination of histomorphological traits at deep nodes within the phylogeny. In general, both analyses retain the previously designated families Lobophylliidae and Merulinidae, but some genera are found to be paraphyletic. Nonetheless, the combined analysis produces a highly resolved and well-supported phylogeny, which could lead to more effective use of biological conservation metrics based on evolutionary distinctiveness. These results show for the first time that inclusion of histomorphological characters improves the resolution of phylogenetic analyses of reef corals. PMID:26843148

  4. A Bayesian phylogenetic approach to estimating the stability of linguistic features and the genetic biasing of tone

    PubMed Central

    Dediu, Dan

    2011-01-01

    Language is a hallmark of our species and understanding linguistic diversity is an area of major interest. Genetic factors influencing the cultural transmission of language provide a powerful and elegant explanation for aspects of the present day linguistic diversity and a window into the emergence and evolution of language. In particular, it has recently been proposed that linguistic tone—the usage of voice pitch to convey lexical and grammatical meaning—is biased by two genes involved in brain growth and development, ASPM and Microcephalin. This hypothesis predicts that tone is a stable characteristic of language because of its ‘genetic anchoring’. The present paper tests this prediction using a Bayesian phylogenetic framework applied to a large set of linguistic features and language families, using multiple software implementations, data codings, stability estimations, linguistic classifications and outgroup choices. The results of these different methods and datasets show a large agreement, suggesting that this approach produces reliable estimates of the stability of linguistic data. Moreover, linguistic tone is found to be stable across methods and datasets, providing suggestive support for the hypothesis of genetic influences on its distribution. PMID:20810441

  5. Examining Phylogenetic Relationships Among Gibbon Genera Using Whole Genome Sequence Data Using an Approximate Bayesian Computation Approach

    PubMed Central

    Veeramah, Krishna R.; Woerner, August E.; Johnstone, Laurel; Gut, Ivo; Gut, Marta; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Carbone, Lucia; Wall, Jeff D.; Hammer, Michael F.

    2015-01-01

    Gibbons are believed to have diverged from the larger great apes ∼16.8 MYA and today reside in the rainforests of Southeast Asia. Based on their diploid chromosome number, the family Hylobatidae is divided into four genera, Nomascus, Symphalangus, Hoolock, and Hylobates. Genetic studies attempting to elucidate the phylogenetic relationships among gibbons using karyotypes, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), the Y chromosome, and short autosomal sequences have been inconclusive . To examine the relationships among gibbon genera in more depth, we performed second-generation whole genome sequencing (WGS) to a mean of ∼15× coverage in two individuals from each genus. We developed a coalescent-based approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method incorporating a model of sequencing error generated by high coverage exome validation to infer the branching order, divergence times, and effective population sizes of gibbon taxa. Although Hoolock and Symphalangus are likely sister taxa, we could not confidently resolve a single bifurcating tree despite the large amount of data analyzed. Instead, our results support the hypothesis that all four gibbon genera diverged at approximately the same time. Assuming an autosomal mutation rate of 1 × 10−9/site/year this speciation process occurred ∼5 MYA during a period in the Early Pliocene characterized by climatic shifts and fragmentation of the Sunda shelf forests. Whole genome sequencing of additional individuals will be vital for inferring the extent of gene flow among species after the separation of the gibbon genera. PMID:25769979

  6. Examining phylogenetic relationships among gibbon genera using whole genome sequence data using an approximate bayesian computation approach.

    PubMed

    Veeramah, Krishna R; Woerner, August E; Johnstone, Laurel; Gut, Ivo; Gut, Marta; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Carbone, Lucia; Wall, Jeff D; Hammer, Michael F

    2015-05-01

    Gibbons are believed to have diverged from the larger great apes ∼16.8 MYA and today reside in the rainforests of Southeast Asia. Based on their diploid chromosome number, the family Hylobatidae is divided into four genera, Nomascus, Symphalangus, Hoolock, and Hylobates. Genetic studies attempting to elucidate the phylogenetic relationships among gibbons using karyotypes, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), the Y chromosome, and short autosomal sequences have been inconclusive . To examine the relationships among gibbon genera in more depth, we performed second-generation whole genome sequencing (WGS) to a mean of ∼15× coverage in two individuals from each genus. We developed a coalescent-based approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method incorporating a model of sequencing error generated by high coverage exome validation to infer the branching order, divergence times, and effective population sizes of gibbon taxa. Although Hoolock and Symphalangus are likely sister taxa, we could not confidently resolve a single bifurcating tree despite the large amount of data analyzed. Instead, our results support the hypothesis that all four gibbon genera diverged at approximately the same time. Assuming an autosomal mutation rate of 1 × 10(-9)/site/year this speciation process occurred ∼5 MYA during a period in the Early Pliocene characterized by climatic shifts and fragmentation of the Sunda shelf forests. Whole genome sequencing of additional individuals will be vital for inferring the extent of gene flow among species after the separation of the gibbon genera.

  7. Examining phylogenetic relationships among gibbon genera using whole genome sequence data using an approximate bayesian computation approach.

    PubMed

    Veeramah, Krishna R; Woerner, August E; Johnstone, Laurel; Gut, Ivo; Gut, Marta; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Carbone, Lucia; Wall, Jeff D; Hammer, Michael F

    2015-05-01

    Gibbons are believed to have diverged from the larger great apes ∼16.8 MYA and today reside in the rainforests of Southeast Asia. Based on their diploid chromosome number, the family Hylobatidae is divided into four genera, Nomascus, Symphalangus, Hoolock, and Hylobates. Genetic studies attempting to elucidate the phylogenetic relationships among gibbons using karyotypes, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), the Y chromosome, and short autosomal sequences have been inconclusive . To examine the relationships among gibbon genera in more depth, we performed second-generation whole genome sequencing (WGS) to a mean of ∼15× coverage in two individuals from each genus. We developed a coalescent-based approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method incorporating a model of sequencing error generated by high coverage exome validation to infer the branching order, divergence times, and effective population sizes of gibbon taxa. Although Hoolock and Symphalangus are likely sister taxa, we could not confidently resolve a single bifurcating tree despite the large amount of data analyzed. Instead, our results support the hypothesis that all four gibbon genera diverged at approximately the same time. Assuming an autosomal mutation rate of 1 × 10(-9)/site/year this speciation process occurred ∼5 MYA during a period in the Early Pliocene characterized by climatic shifts and fragmentation of the Sunda shelf forests. Whole genome sequencing of additional individuals will be vital for inferring the extent of gene flow among species after the separation of the gibbon genera. PMID:25769979

  8. Xantusiid "night" lizards: a puzzling phylogenetic problem revisited using likelihood-based Bayesian methods on mtDNA sequences.

    PubMed

    Vicario, Saverio; Caccone, Adalgisa; Gauthier, Jacques

    2003-02-01

    Contentious issues in Night Lizard (Xantusiidae) evolution are revisited using Maximum Likelihood-based Bayesian methods and compared with results from Neighbor-Joining and Maximum Parsimony analyses. Fragments of three mitochondrial genes, the 12S and 16S ribosomal genes, and the cytochrome b gene, are sampled across an ingroup composed of seven xantusiid species and a 12-species outgroup chosen to bracket ancestral states for six additional clades of scleroglossan lizards. Our phylogenetic analyses afford robust support for the following conclusions: Xantusiidae is part of Scincomorpha, rather than being allied with Gekkota; Lepidophyma is sister to Xantusia, rather than to Cricosaura; Xantusia riversiana is imbedded within, rather than being sister to, other Xantusia species; and rock-morph Xantusia are not closely related to one another. Convergence related to retarded rates of growth and development, or to physical constraints imposed by living in rock crevices, may be responsible for much of the character discordance underlying conflicts in xantusiid phylogeny. Fossil-calibrated Maximum Likelihood-based divergence time estimates suggest that although the xantusiid stem may have originated in the Mesozoic, the crown clade is exclusively Tertiary in age. Thus, the clade including extant Cricosaura does not appear to have been extant during the K-T boundary bolide impact, as has been suggested. Moreover, our divergence-time estimates indicate that the xantusiid island endemics, Cricosaura typica on Cuba and Xantusia riversiana on the California Channel Islands, arrived via dispersal rather than vicariance, as previously proposed.

  9. A Bayesian phylogenetic approach to estimating the stability of linguistic features and the genetic biasing of tone.

    PubMed

    Dediu, Dan

    2011-02-01

    Language is a hallmark of our species and understanding linguistic diversity is an area of major interest. Genetic factors influencing the cultural transmission of language provide a powerful and elegant explanation for aspects of the present day linguistic diversity and a window into the emergence and evolution of language. In particular, it has recently been proposed that linguistic tone-the usage of voice pitch to convey lexical and grammatical meaning-is biased by two genes involved in brain growth and development, ASPM and Microcephalin. This hypothesis predicts that tone is a stable characteristic of language because of its 'genetic anchoring'. The present paper tests this prediction using a Bayesian phylogenetic framework applied to a large set of linguistic features and language families, using multiple software implementations, data codings, stability estimations, linguistic classifications and outgroup choices. The results of these different methods and datasets show a large agreement, suggesting that this approach produces reliable estimates of the stability of linguistic data. Moreover, linguistic tone is found to be stable across methods and datasets, providing suggestive support for the hypothesis of genetic influences on its distribution.

  10. Phylogenetic analysis with the iPlant discovery environment.

    PubMed

    Matasci, Naim; McKay, Sheldon

    2013-06-01

    The iPlant Collaborative's Discovery Environment is a unified Web portal to many bioinformatics applications and analytical workflows, including various methods of phylogenetic analysis. This unit describes example protocols for phylogenetic analyses, starting at sequence retrieval from the GenBank sequence database, through to multiple sequence alignment inference and visualization of phylogenetic trees. Methods for extracting smaller sub-trees from very large phylogenies, and the comparative method of continuous ancestral character state reconstruction based on observed morphology of extant species related to their phylogenetic relationships, are also presented.

  11. Open Reading Frame Phylogenetic Analysis on the Cloud

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Phylogenetic analysis has become essential in researching the evolutionary relationships between viruses. These relationships are depicted on phylogenetic trees, in which viruses are grouped based on sequence similarity. Viral evolutionary relationships are identified from open reading frames rather than from complete sequences. Recently, cloud computing has become popular for developing internet-based bioinformatics tools. Biocloud is an efficient, scalable, and robust bioinformatics computing service. In this paper, we propose a cloud-based open reading frame phylogenetic analysis service. The proposed service integrates the Hadoop framework, virtualization technology, and phylogenetic analysis methods to provide a high-availability, large-scale bioservice. In a case study, we analyze the phylogenetic relationships among Norovirus. Evolutionary relationships are elucidated by aligning different open reading frame sequences. The proposed platform correctly identifies the evolutionary relationships between members of Norovirus. PMID:23671843

  12. Open reading frame phylogenetic analysis on the cloud.

    PubMed

    Hung, Che-Lun; Lin, Chun-Yuan

    2013-01-01

    Phylogenetic analysis has become essential in researching the evolutionary relationships between viruses. These relationships are depicted on phylogenetic trees, in which viruses are grouped based on sequence similarity. Viral evolutionary relationships are identified from open reading frames rather than from complete sequences. Recently, cloud computing has become popular for developing internet-based bioinformatics tools. Biocloud is an efficient, scalable, and robust bioinformatics computing service. In this paper, we propose a cloud-based open reading frame phylogenetic analysis service. The proposed service integrates the Hadoop framework, virtualization technology, and phylogenetic analysis methods to provide a high-availability, large-scale bioservice. In a case study, we analyze the phylogenetic relationships among Norovirus. Evolutionary relationships are elucidated by aligning different open reading frame sequences. The proposed platform correctly identifies the evolutionary relationships between members of Norovirus. PMID:23671843

  13. Data set for phylogenetic tree and RAMPAGE Ramachandran plot analysis of SODs in Gossypium raimondii and G. arboreum.

    PubMed

    Wang, Wei; Xia, Minxuan; Chen, Jie; Deng, Fenni; Yuan, Rui; Zhang, Xiaopei; Shen, Fafu

    2016-12-01

    The data presented in this paper is supporting the research article "Genome-Wide Analysis of Superoxide Dismutase Gene Family in Gossypium raimondii and G. arboreum" [1]. In this data article, we present phylogenetic tree showing dichotomy with two different clusters of SODs inferred by the Bayesian method of MrBayes (version 3.2.4), "Bayesian phylogenetic inference under mixed models" [2], Ramachandran plots of G. raimondii and G. arboreum SODs, the protein sequence used to generate 3D sructure of proteins and the template accession via SWISS-MODEL server, "SWISS-MODEL: modelling protein tertiary and quaternary structure using evolutionary information." [3] and motif sequences of SODs identified by InterProScan (version 4.8) with the Pfam database, "Pfam: the protein families database" [4]. PMID:27672674

  14. Data set for phylogenetic tree and RAMPAGE Ramachandran plot analysis of SODs in Gossypium raimondii and G. arboreum.

    PubMed

    Wang, Wei; Xia, Minxuan; Chen, Jie; Deng, Fenni; Yuan, Rui; Zhang, Xiaopei; Shen, Fafu

    2016-12-01

    The data presented in this paper is supporting the research article "Genome-Wide Analysis of Superoxide Dismutase Gene Family in Gossypium raimondii and G. arboreum" [1]. In this data article, we present phylogenetic tree showing dichotomy with two different clusters of SODs inferred by the Bayesian method of MrBayes (version 3.2.4), "Bayesian phylogenetic inference under mixed models" [2], Ramachandran plots of G. raimondii and G. arboreum SODs, the protein sequence used to generate 3D sructure of proteins and the template accession via SWISS-MODEL server, "SWISS-MODEL: modelling protein tertiary and quaternary structure using evolutionary information." [3] and motif sequences of SODs identified by InterProScan (version 4.8) with the Pfam database, "Pfam: the protein families database" [4].

  15. A phylogenetic analysis of the phylum Fibrobacteres.

    PubMed

    Jewell, Kelsea A; Scott, Jarrod J; Adams, Sandra M; Suen, Garret

    2013-09-01

    Members of the phylum Fibrobacteres are highly efficient cellulolytic bacteria, best known for their role in rumen function and as potential sources of novel enzymes for bioenergy applications. Despite being key members of ruminants and other digestive microbial communities, our knowledge of this phylum remains incomplete, as much of our understanding is focused on two recognized species, Fibrobacter succinogenes and F. intestinalis. As a result, we lack insights regarding the environmental niche, host range, and phylogenetic organization of this phylum. Here, we analyzed over 1000 16S rRNA Fibrobacteres sequences available from public databases to establish a phylogenetic framework for this phylum. We identify both species- and genus-level clades that are suggestive of previously unknown taxonomic relationships between Fibrobacteres in addition to their putative lifestyles as host-associated or free-living. Our results shed light on this poorly understood phylum and will be useful for elucidating the function, distribution, and diversity of these bacteria in their niches.

  16. Elite Athletes Refine Their Internal Clocks: A Bayesian Analysis.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yin-Hua; Verdinelli, Isabella; Cesari, Paola

    2016-07-01

    This paper carries out a full Bayesian analysis for a data set examined in Chen & Cesari (2015). These data were collected for assessing people's ability in evaluating short intervals of time. Chen & Cesari (2015) showed evidence of the existence of two independent internal clocks for evaluating time intervals below and above the second. We reexamine here, the same question by performing a complete statistical Bayesian analysis of the data. The Bayesian approach can be used to analyze these data thanks to the specific trial design. Data were obtained from evaluation of time ranges from two groups of individuals. More specifically, information gathered from a nontrained group (considered as baseline) allowed us to build a prior distribution for the parameter(s) of interest, and data from the trained group determined the likelihood function. This paper's main goals are (i) showing how the Bayesian inferential method can be used in statistical analyses and (ii) showing that the Bayesian methodology gives additional support to the findings presented in Chen & Cesari (2015) regarding the existence of two internal clocks in assessing duration of time intervals.

  17. A phylogenetic analysis of Aquifex pyrophilus

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Burggraf, S.; Olsen, G. J.; Stetter, K. O.; Woese, C. R.

    1992-01-01

    The 16S rRNA of the bacterion Aquifex pyrophilus, a microaerophilic, oxygen-reducing hyperthermophile, has been sequenced directly from the the PCR amplified gene. Phylogenetic analyses show the Aq. pyrophilus lineage to be probably the deepest (earliest) in the (eu)bacterial tree. The addition of this deep branching to the bacterial tree further supports the argument that the Bacteria are of thermophilic ancestry.

  18. An Efficient Independence Sampler for Updating Branches in Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo Sampling of Phylogenetic Trees.

    PubMed

    Aberer, Andre J; Stamatakis, Alexandros; Ronquist, Fredrik

    2016-01-01

    Sampling tree space is the most challenging aspect of Bayesian phylogenetic inference. The sheer number of alternative topologies is problematic by itself. In addition, the complex dependency between branch lengths and topology increases the difficulty of moving efficiently among topologies. Current tree proposals are fast but sample new trees using primitive transformations or re-mappings of old branch lengths. This reduces acceptance rates and presumably slows down convergence and mixing. Here, we explore branch proposals that do not rely on old branch lengths but instead are based on approximations of the conditional posterior. Using a diverse set of empirical data sets, we show that most conditional branch posteriors can be accurately approximated via a [Formula: see text] distribution. We empirically determine the relationship between the logarithmic conditional posterior density, its derivatives, and the characteristics of the branch posterior. We use these relationships to derive an independence sampler for proposing branches with an acceptance ratio of ~90% on most data sets. This proposal samples branches between 2× and 3× more efficiently than traditional proposals with respect to the effective sample size per unit of runtime. We also compare the performance of standard topology proposals with hybrid proposals that use the new independence sampler to update those branches that are most affected by the topological change. Our results show that hybrid proposals can sometimes noticeably decrease the number of generations necessary for topological convergence. Inconsistent performance gains indicate that branch updates are not the limiting factor in improving topological convergence for the currently employed set of proposals. However, our independence sampler might be essential for the construction of novel tree proposals that apply more radical topology changes. PMID:26231183

  19. A Bayesian approach on molecules and behavior: reconsidering phylogenetic and evolutionary patterns of the Salamandridae with emphasis on Triturus newts.

    PubMed

    Steinfartz, Sebastian; Vicario, Saverio; Arntzen, J W; Caccone, Adalgisa

    2007-03-15

    The monophyly of European newts of the genus Triturus within the family Salamandridae has for decades rested on presumably homologous behavioral and morphological characters. Molecular data challenge this hypothesis, but the phylogenetic position of Triturus within the Salamandridae has not yet been convincingly resolved. We addressed this issue and the temporal divergence of Triturus within the Salamandridae with novel Bayesian approaches applied to DNA sequence data from three mitochondrial genes (12S, 16S and cytb). We included 38 salamandrid species comprising all 13 recognized species of Triturus and 16 out of 17 salamandrid genera. A clade comprising all the "Newts" can be separated from the "True Salamanders" and Salamandrina clades. Within the "Newts" well-supported clades are: Tylototriton-Pleurodeles, the "New World Newts" (Notophthalmus-Taricha), and the "Modern Eurasian Newts" (Cynops, Pachytriton, Paramesotriton=together the "Modern Asian Newts", Calotriton, Euproctus, Neurergus and Triturus species). We found that Triturus is a non-monophyletic species assemblage, which includes four groups that are themselves monophyletic: (i) the "Large-Bodied Triturus" (six species), (ii) the "Small-Bodied Triturus" (five species), (iii) T. alpestris and (iv) T. vittatus. We estimated that the last common ancestor of Triturus existed around 64 million years ago (mya) while the root of the Salamandridae dates back to 95 mya. This was estimated using a fossil-based molecular dating approach and an explicit framework to select calibration points that least underestimated their corresponding nodes. Using the molecular phylogeny we mapped the evolution of life history and courtship traits in Triturus and found that several Triturus-specific courtship traits evolved independently.

  20. PhyloBLAST: facilitating phylogenetic analysis of BLAST results.

    PubMed

    Brinkman, F S; Wan, I; Hancock, R E; Rose, A M; Jones, S J

    2001-04-01

    PhyloBLAST is an internet-accessed application based on CGI/Perl programming that compares a users protein sequence to a SwissProt/TREMBL database using BLAST2 and then allows phylogenetic analyses to be performed on selected sequences from the BLAST output. Flexible features such as ability to input your own multiple sequence alignment and use PHYLIP program options provide additional web-based phylogenetic analysis functionality beyond the analysis of a BLAST result.

  1. Bayesian Analysis of the Pattern Informatics Technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, N.; Tiampo, K.; Klein, W.; Rundle, J.

    2007-12-01

    The pattern informatics (PI) [Rundle et al., 2000; Tiampo et al., 2002; Holliday et al., 2005] is a technique that uses phase dynamics in order to quantify temporal variations in seismicity patterns. This technique has shown interesting results for forecasting earthquakes with magnitude greater than or equal to 5 in southern California from 2000 to 2010 [Rundle et al., 2002]. In this work, a Bayesian approach is used to obtain a modified updated version of the PI called Bayesian pattern informatics (BPI). This alternative method uses the PI result as a prior probability and models such as ETAS [Ogata, 1988, 2004; Helmstetter and Sornette, 2002] or BASS [Turcotte et al., 2007] in order to obtain the likelihood. Its result is similar to the one obtained by the PI: the determination of regions, known as hotspots, that are most susceptible to the occurrence of events with M=5 and larger during the forecast period. As an initial test, retrospective forecasts for the southern California region from 1990 to 2000 were made with both the BPI and the PI techniques, and the results are discussed in this work.

  2. The complete mitochondrial genome of Microtus fortis calamorum (Arvicolinae, Rodentia) and its phylogenetic analysis.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Xianhuan; Gao, Jun; Ni, Liju; Hu, Jianhua; Li, Kai; Sun, Fengping; Xie, Jianyun; Bo, Xiong; Gao, Chen; Xiao, Junhua; Zhou, Yuxun

    2012-05-01

    Microtus fortis is a special resource of rodent in China. It is a promising experimental animal model for the study on the mechanism of Schistosome japonicum resistance. The first complete mitochondrial genome sequence for Microtus fortis calamorum, a subspecies of M. fortis (Arvicolinae, Rodentia), was reported in this study. The mitochondrial genome sequence of M. f. calamorum (Genbank: JF261175) showed a typical vertebrate pattern with 13 protein coding genes, 2 ribosomal RNAs, 22 transfer RNAs and one major noncoding region (CR region).The extended termination associated sequences (ETAS-1 and ETAS-2) and conserved sequence block 1 (CSB-1) were found in the CR region. The putative origin of replication for the light strand (O(L)) of M. f. calamorum was 35bp long and showed high conservation in stem and adjacent sequences, but the difference existed in the loop region among three species of genus Microtus. In order to investigate the phylogenetic position of M. f. calamorum, the phylogenetic trees (Maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods) were constructed based on 12 protein-coding genes (except for ND6 gene) on H strand from 16 rodent species. M. f. calamorum was classified into genus Microtus, Arvcicolinae for the highly phylogenetic relationship with Microtus kikuchii (Taiwan vole). Further phylogenetic analysis results based on the cytochrome b gene ranged from M. f. calamorum to one of the subspecies of M. fortis, which formed a sister group of Microtus middendorfii in the genus Microtus.

  3. APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS TO A LAGRANGIAN PHOTOCHEMICAL AIR QUALITY MODEL. (R824792)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Uncertainties in ozone concentrations predicted with a Lagrangian photochemical air quality model have been estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) analysis. Bayesian Monte Carlo analysis provides a means of combining subjective "prior" uncertainty estimates developed ...

  4. Bayesian networks as a tool for epidemiological systems analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, F. I.

    2012-11-01

    Bayesian network analysis is a form of probabilistic modeling which derives from empirical data a directed acyclic graph (DAG) describing the dependency structure between random variables. Bayesian networks are increasingly finding application in areas such as computational and systems biology, and more recently in epidemiological analyses. The key distinction between standard empirical modeling approaches, such as generalised linear modeling, and Bayesian network analyses is that the latter attempts not only to identify statistically associated variables, but to additionally, and empirically, separate these into those directly and indirectly dependent with one or more outcome variables. Such discrimination is vastly more ambitious but has the potential to reveal far more about key features of complex disease systems. Applying Bayesian network modeling to biological and medical data has considerable computational demands, combined with the need to ensure robust model selection given the vast model space of possible DAGs. These challenges require the use of approximation techniques, such as the Laplace approximation, Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and parametric bootstrapping, along with computational parallelization. A case study in structure discovery - identification of an optimal DAG for given data - is presented which uses additive Bayesian networks to explore veterinary disease data of industrial and medical relevance.

  5. On Bayesian analysis of on-off measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nosek, Dalibor; Nosková, Jana

    2016-06-01

    We propose an analytical solution to the on-off problem within the framework of Bayesian statistics. Both the statistical significance for the discovery of new phenomena and credible intervals on model parameters are presented in a consistent way. We use a large enough family of prior distributions of relevant parameters. The proposed analysis is designed to provide Bayesian solutions that can be used for any number of observed on-off events, including zero. The procedure is checked using Monte Carlo simulations. The usefulness of the method is demonstrated on examples from γ-ray astronomy.

  6. A Comparison of Imputation Methods for Bayesian Factor Analysis Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Merkle, Edgar C.

    2011-01-01

    Imputation methods are popular for the handling of missing data in psychology. The methods generally consist of predicting missing data based on observed data, yielding a complete data set that is amiable to standard statistical analyses. In the context of Bayesian factor analysis, this article compares imputation under an unrestricted…

  7. Bayesian analysis of genetic differentiation between populations.

    PubMed Central

    Corander, Jukka; Waldmann, Patrik; Sillanpää, Mikko J

    2003-01-01

    We introduce a Bayesian method for estimating hidden population substructure using multilocus molecular markers and geographical information provided by the sampling design. The joint posterior distribution of the substructure and allele frequencies of the respective populations is available in an analytical form when the number of populations is small, whereas an approximation based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation approach can be obtained for a moderate or large number of populations. Using the joint posterior distribution, posteriors can also be derived for any evolutionary population parameters, such as the traditional fixation indices. A major advantage compared to most earlier methods is that the number of populations is treated here as an unknown parameter. What is traditionally considered as two genetically distinct populations, either recently founded or connected by considerable gene flow, is here considered as one panmictic population with a certain probability based on marker data and prior information. Analyses of previously published data on the Moroccan argan tree (Argania spinosa) and of simulated data sets suggest that our method is capable of estimating a population substructure, while not artificially enforcing a substructure when it does not exist. The software (BAPS) used for the computations is freely available from http://www.rni.helsinki.fi/~mjs. PMID:12586722

  8. Exploration of phylogenetic data using a global sequence analysis method

    PubMed Central

    Chapus, Charles; Dufraigne, Christine; Edwards, Scott; Giron, Alain; Fertil, Bernard; Deschavanne, Patrick

    2005-01-01

    Background Molecular phylogenetic methods are based on alignments of nucleic or peptidic sequences. The tremendous increase in molecular data permits phylogenetic analyses of very long sequences and of many species, but also requires methods to help manage large datasets. Results Here we explore the phylogenetic signal present in molecular data by genomic signatures, defined as the set of frequencies of short oligonucleotides present in DNA sequences. Although violating many of the standard assumptions of traditional phylogenetic analyses – in particular explicit statements of homology inherent in character matrices – the use of the signature does permit the analysis of very long sequences, even those that are unalignable, and is therefore most useful in cases where alignment is questionable. We compare the results obtained by traditional phylogenetic methods to those inferred by the signature method for two genes: RAG1, which is easily alignable, and 18S RNA, where alignments are often ambiguous for some regions. We also apply this method to a multigene data set of 33 genes for 9 bacteria and one archea species as well as to the whole genome of a set of 16 γ-proteobacteria. In addition to delivering phylogenetic results comparable to traditional methods, the comparison of signatures for the sequences involved in the bacterial example identified putative candidates for horizontal gene transfers. Conclusion The signature method is therefore a fast tool for exploring phylogenetic data, providing not only a pretreatment for discovering new sequence relationships, but also for identifying cases of sequence evolution that could confound traditional phylogenetic analysis. PMID:16280081

  9. Phylogenetic analysis of burkholderia species by multilocus sequence analysis.

    PubMed

    Estrada-de los Santos, Paulina; Vinuesa, Pablo; Martínez-Aguilar, Lourdes; Hirsch, Ann M; Caballero-Mellado, Jesús

    2013-07-01

    Burkholderia comprises more than 60 species of environmental, clinical, and agro-biotechnological relevance. Previous phylogenetic analyses of 16S rRNA, recA, gyrB, rpoB, and acdS gene sequences as well as genome sequence comparisons of different Burkholderia species have revealed two major species clusters. In this study, we undertook a multilocus sequence analysis of 77 type and reference strains of Burkholderia using atpD, gltB, lepA, and recA genes in combination with the 16S rRNA gene sequence and employed maximum likelihood and neighbor-joining criteria to test this further. The phylogenetic analysis revealed, with high supporting values, distinct lineages within the genus Burkholderia. The two large groups were named A and B, whereas the B. rhizoxinica/B. endofungorum, and B. andropogonis groups consisted of two and one species, respectively. The group A encompasses several plant-associated and saprophytic bacterial species. The group B comprises the B. cepacia complex (opportunistic human pathogens), the B. pseudomallei subgroup, which includes both human and animal pathogens, and an assemblage of plant pathogenic species. The distinct lineages present in Burkholderia suggest that each group might represent a different genus. However, it will be necessary to analyze the full set of Burkholderia species and explore whether enough phenotypic features exist among the different clusters to propose that these groups should be considered separate genera.

  10. Comprehensive Phylogenetic Analysis of Bacterial Reverse Transcriptases

    PubMed Central

    Toro, Nicolás; Nisa-Martínez, Rafael

    2014-01-01

    Much less is known about reverse transcriptases (RTs) in prokaryotes than in eukaryotes, with most prokaryotic enzymes still uncharacterized. Two surveys involving BLAST searches for RT genes in prokaryotic genomes revealed the presence of large numbers of diverse, uncharacterized RTs and RT-like sequences. Here, using consistent annotation across all sequenced bacterial species from GenBank and other sources via RAST, available from the PATRIC (Pathogenic Resource Integration Center) platform, we have compiled the data for currently annotated reverse transcriptases from completely sequenced bacterial genomes. RT sequences are broadly distributed across bacterial phyla, but green sulfur bacteria and cyanobacteria have the highest levels of RT sequence diversity (≤85% identity) per genome. By contrast, phylum Actinobacteria, for which a large number of genomes have been sequenced, was found to have a low RT sequence diversity. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that bacterial RTs could be classified into 17 main groups: group II introns, retrons/retron-like RTs, diversity-generating retroelements (DGRs), Abi-like RTs, CRISPR-Cas-associated RTs, group II-like RTs (G2L), and 11 other groups of RTs of unknown function. Proteobacteria had the highest potential functional diversity, as they possessed most of the RT groups. Group II introns and DGRs were the most widely distributed RTs in bacterial phyla. Our results provide insights into bacterial RT phylogeny and the basis for an update of annotation systems based on sequence/domain homology. PMID:25423096

  11. Comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of bacterial reverse transcriptases.

    PubMed

    Toro, Nicolás; Nisa-Martínez, Rafael

    2014-01-01

    Much less is known about reverse transcriptases (RTs) in prokaryotes than in eukaryotes, with most prokaryotic enzymes still uncharacterized. Two surveys involving BLAST searches for RT genes in prokaryotic genomes revealed the presence of large numbers of diverse, uncharacterized RTs and RT-like sequences. Here, using consistent annotation across all sequenced bacterial species from GenBank and other sources via RAST, available from the PATRIC (Pathogenic Resource Integration Center) platform, we have compiled the data for currently annotated reverse transcriptases from completely sequenced bacterial genomes. RT sequences are broadly distributed across bacterial phyla, but green sulfur bacteria and cyanobacteria have the highest levels of RT sequence diversity (≤85% identity) per genome. By contrast, phylum Actinobacteria, for which a large number of genomes have been sequenced, was found to have a low RT sequence diversity. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that bacterial RTs could be classified into 17 main groups: group II introns, retrons/retron-like RTs, diversity-generating retroelements (DGRs), Abi-like RTs, CRISPR-Cas-associated RTs, group II-like RTs (G2L), and 11 other groups of RTs of unknown function. Proteobacteria had the highest potential functional diversity, as they possessed most of the RT groups. Group II introns and DGRs were the most widely distributed RTs in bacterial phyla. Our results provide insights into bacterial RT phylogeny and the basis for an update of annotation systems based on sequence/domain homology.

  12. Determination of the EEDF using a Bayesian analysis framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poznic, Dominic; Samarian, Alex; James, Brian

    2013-10-01

    A statistical analysis framework is presented that determines the electron energy distribution function (EEDF) of an argon discharge plasma from optical emission spectra and Langmuir probe data. The analysis framework is based on Bayesian inference, in which data are treated in a rigorously statistical manner, that naturally includes all sources of uncertainty. The framework is designed to allow models describing different data sets from the same system to be combined in a straightforward manner. Spectral line intensities are described using a collisional-radiative model, while Langmuir probe data are described with a simple 1D Langmuir probe model. The models are inverted and combined using Bayesian probability theory in a joint analysis of both data sets. This framework was tested using data simulated by the two models from a known set of plasma conditions. The testing confirmed the ability of the framework to determine non-Maxwellian EEDFs and use multiple data sets to increase the accuracy of results.

  13. An Overview of Bayesian Methods for Neural Spike Train Analysis

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Neural spike train analysis is an important task in computational neuroscience which aims to understand neural mechanisms and gain insights into neural circuits. With the advancement of multielectrode recording and imaging technologies, it has become increasingly demanding to develop statistical tools for analyzing large neuronal ensemble spike activity. Here we present a tutorial overview of Bayesian methods and their representative applications in neural spike train analysis, at both single neuron and population levels. On the theoretical side, we focus on various approximate Bayesian inference techniques as applied to latent state and parameter estimation. On the application side, the topics include spike sorting, tuning curve estimation, neural encoding and decoding, deconvolution of spike trains from calcium imaging signals, and inference of neuronal functional connectivity and synchrony. Some research challenges and opportunities for neural spike train analysis are discussed. PMID:24348527

  14. A molecular phylogenetic analysis of strombid gastropod morphological diversity.

    PubMed

    Latiolais, Jared M; Taylor, Michael S; Roy, Kaustuv; Hellberg, Michael E

    2006-11-01

    The shells of strombid gastropods show a wide variety of forms, ranging from small and fusiform to large and elaborately ornamented with a strongly flared outer lip. Here, we present the first species-level molecular phylogeny for strombids and use the resulting phylogenetic framework to explore relationships between species richness and morphological diversity. We use portions of one nuclear (325 bp of histone H3) and one mitochondrial (640 bp of cytochrome oxidase I, COI) gene to infer relationships within the two most species-rich genera in the Strombidae: Strombus and Lambis. We include 32 species of Strombus, representing 10 of 11 extant subgenera, and 3 of the 9 species of Lambis, representing 2 of 3 extant subgenera. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses of COI and of H3 and COI combined suggest Lambis is nested within a paraphyletic Strombus. Eastern Pacific and western Atlantic species of Strombus form a relatively recent monophyletic radiation within an older, paraphyletic Indo-West Pacific grade. Morphological diversity of subclades scales positively with species richness but does not show evidence of strong phylogenetic constraints. PMID:16839783

  15. Evolution & Phylogenetic Analysis: Classroom Activities for Investigating Molecular & Morphological Concepts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Franklin, Wilfred A.

    2010-01-01

    In a flexible multisession laboratory, students investigate concepts of phylogenetic analysis at both the molecular and the morphological level. Students finish by conducting their own analysis on a collection of skeletons representing the major phyla of vertebrates, a collection of primate skulls, or a collection of hominid skulls.

  16. A phylogenetic analysis of the megadiverse Chalcidoidea (Hymenoptera)

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Chalcidoidea (Hymenoptera) are extremely diverse with an estimated 500,000 species. We present the first phylogenetic analysis of the superfamily based on a cladistic analysis of both morphological and molecular data. A total of 233 morphological characters were scored for 300 taxa and 265 genera, a...

  17. Phylogenetic Analysis and Epidemic History of Hepatitis C Virus Genotype 2 in Tunisia, North Africa

    PubMed Central

    Rajhi, Mouna; Ghedira, Kais; Chouikha, Anissa; Djebbi, Ahlem; Cheikh, Imed; Ben Yahia, Ahlem; Sadraoui, Amel; Hammami, Walid; Azouz, Msaddek; Ben Mami, Nabil; Triki, Henda

    2016-01-01

    HCV genotype 2 (HCV-2) has a worldwide distribution with prevalence rates that vary from country to country. High genetic diversity and long-term endemicity were suggested in West African countries. A global dispersal of HCV-2 would have occurred during the 20th century, especially in European countries. In Tunisia, genotype 2 was the second prevalent genotype after genotype 1 and most isolates belong to subtypes 2c and 2k. In this study, phylogenetic analyses based on the NS5B genomic sequences of 113 Tunisian HCV isolates from subtypes 2c and 2k were carried out. A Bayesian coalescent-based framework was used to estimate the origin and the spread of these subtypes circulating in Tunisia. Phylogenetic analyses of HCV-2c sequences suggest the absence of country-specific or time-specific variants. In contrast, the phylogenetic grouping of HCV-2k sequences shows the existence of two major genetic clusters that may represent two distinct circulating variants. Coalescent analysis indicated a most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of Tunisian HCV-2c around 1886 (1869–1902) before the introduction of HCV-2k in 1901 (1867–1931). Our findings suggest that the introduction of HCV-2c in Tunisia is possibly a result of population movements between Tunisia and European population following the French colonization. PMID:27100294

  18. Phylogenetic Analysis and Epidemic History of Hepatitis C Virus Genotype 2 in Tunisia, North Africa.

    PubMed

    Rajhi, Mouna; Ghedira, Kais; Chouikha, Anissa; Djebbi, Ahlem; Cheikh, Imed; Ben Yahia, Ahlem; Sadraoui, Amel; Hammami, Walid; Azouz, Msaddek; Ben Mami, Nabil; Triki, Henda

    2016-01-01

    HCV genotype 2 (HCV-2) has a worldwide distribution with prevalence rates that vary from country to country. High genetic diversity and long-term endemicity were suggested in West African countries. A global dispersal of HCV-2 would have occurred during the 20th century, especially in European countries. In Tunisia, genotype 2 was the second prevalent genotype after genotype 1 and most isolates belong to subtypes 2c and 2k. In this study, phylogenetic analyses based on the NS5B genomic sequences of 113 Tunisian HCV isolates from subtypes 2c and 2k were carried out. A Bayesian coalescent-based framework was used to estimate the origin and the spread of these subtypes circulating in Tunisia. Phylogenetic analyses of HCV-2c sequences suggest the absence of country-specific or time-specific variants. In contrast, the phylogenetic grouping of HCV-2k sequences shows the existence of two major genetic clusters that may represent two distinct circulating variants. Coalescent analysis indicated a most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of Tunisian HCV-2c around 1886 (1869-1902) before the introduction of HCV-2k in 1901 (1867-1931). Our findings suggest that the introduction of HCV-2c in Tunisia is possibly a result of population movements between Tunisia and European population following the French colonization.

  19. Phylogenetic Analysis and Epidemic History of Hepatitis C Virus Genotype 2 in Tunisia, North Africa.

    PubMed

    Rajhi, Mouna; Ghedira, Kais; Chouikha, Anissa; Djebbi, Ahlem; Cheikh, Imed; Ben Yahia, Ahlem; Sadraoui, Amel; Hammami, Walid; Azouz, Msaddek; Ben Mami, Nabil; Triki, Henda

    2016-01-01

    HCV genotype 2 (HCV-2) has a worldwide distribution with prevalence rates that vary from country to country. High genetic diversity and long-term endemicity were suggested in West African countries. A global dispersal of HCV-2 would have occurred during the 20th century, especially in European countries. In Tunisia, genotype 2 was the second prevalent genotype after genotype 1 and most isolates belong to subtypes 2c and 2k. In this study, phylogenetic analyses based on the NS5B genomic sequences of 113 Tunisian HCV isolates from subtypes 2c and 2k were carried out. A Bayesian coalescent-based framework was used to estimate the origin and the spread of these subtypes circulating in Tunisia. Phylogenetic analyses of HCV-2c sequences suggest the absence of country-specific or time-specific variants. In contrast, the phylogenetic grouping of HCV-2k sequences shows the existence of two major genetic clusters that may represent two distinct circulating variants. Coalescent analysis indicated a most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of Tunisian HCV-2c around 1886 (1869-1902) before the introduction of HCV-2k in 1901 (1867-1931). Our findings suggest that the introduction of HCV-2c in Tunisia is possibly a result of population movements between Tunisia and European population following the French colonization. PMID:27100294

  20. Empirical calibrated radiocarbon sampler: a tool for incorporating radiocarbon-date and calibration error into Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of ancient DNA

    PubMed Central

    Molak, Martyna; Suchard, Marc A.; Ho, Simon Y. W.; Beilman, David W.; Shapiro, Beth

    2014-01-01

    Studies of DNA from ancient samples provide a valuable opportunity to gain insight into past evolutionary and demographic processes. Bayesian phylogenetic methods can estimate evolutionary rates and timescales from ancient DNA sequences, with the ages of the samples acting as calibrations for the molecular clock. Sample ages are often estimated using radiocarbon dating, but the associated measurement error is rarely taken into account. In addition, the total uncertainty quantified by converting radiocarbon dates to calendar dates is typically ignored. Here we present a tool for incorporating both of these sources of uncertainty into Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of ancient DNA. This empirical calibrated radiocarbon sampler (ECRS) integrates the age uncertainty for each ancient sequence over the calibrated probability density function estimated for its radiocarbon date and associated error. We use the ECRS to analyse three ancient DNA data sets. Accounting for radiocarbon-dating and calibration error appeared to have little impact on estimates of evolutionary rates and related parameters for these data sets. However, analyses of other data sets, particularly those with few or only very old radiocarbon dates, might be more sensitive to using artificially precise sample ages and should benefit from use of the ECRS. PMID:24964386

  1. Empirical calibrated radiocarbon sampler: a tool for incorporating radiocarbon-date and calibration error into Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of ancient DNA.

    PubMed

    Molak, Martyna; Suchard, Marc A; Ho, Simon Y W; Beilman, David W; Shapiro, Beth

    2015-01-01

    Studies of DNA from ancient samples provide a valuable opportunity to gain insight into past evolutionary and demographic processes. Bayesian phylogenetic methods can estimate evolutionary rates and timescales from ancient DNA sequences, with the ages of the samples acting as calibrations for the molecular clock. Sample ages are often estimated using radiocarbon dating, but the associated measurement error is rarely taken into account. In addition, the total uncertainty quantified by converting radiocarbon dates to calendar dates is typically ignored. Here, we present a tool for incorporating both of these sources of uncertainty into Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of ancient DNA. This empirical calibrated radiocarbon sampler (ECRS) integrates the age uncertainty for each ancient sequence over the calibrated probability density function estimated for its radiocarbon date and associated error. We use the ECRS to analyse three ancient DNA data sets. Accounting for radiocarbon-dating and calibration error appeared to have little impact on estimates of evolutionary rates and related parameters for these data sets. However, analyses of other data sets, particularly those with few or only very old radiocarbon dates, might be more sensitive to using artificially precise sample ages and should benefit from use of the ECRS.

  2. A Deliberate Practice Approach to Teaching Phylogenetic Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hobbs, F. Collin; Johnson, Daniel J.; Kearns, Katherine D.

    2013-01-01

    One goal of postsecondary education is to assist students in developing expert-level understanding. Previous attempts to encourage expert-level understanding of phylogenetic analysis in college science classrooms have largely focused on isolated, or "one-shot," in-class activities. Using a deliberate practice instructional approach, we…

  3. Bayesian tomography and integrated data analysis in fusion diagnostics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Dong; Dong, Y. B.; Deng, Wei; Shi, Z. B.; Fu, B. Z.; Gao, J. M.; Wang, T. B.; Zhou, Yan; Liu, Yi; Yang, Q. W.; Duan, X. R.

    2016-11-01

    In this article, a Bayesian tomography method using non-stationary Gaussian process for a prior has been introduced. The Bayesian formalism allows quantities which bear uncertainty to be expressed in the probabilistic form so that the uncertainty of a final solution can be fully resolved from the confidence interval of a posterior probability. Moreover, a consistency check of that solution can be performed by checking whether the misfits between predicted and measured data are reasonably within an assumed data error. In particular, the accuracy of reconstructions is significantly improved by using the non-stationary Gaussian process that can adapt to the varying smoothness of emission distribution. The implementation of this method to a soft X-ray diagnostics on HL-2A has been used to explore relevant physics in equilibrium and MHD instability modes. This project is carried out within a large size inference framework, aiming at an integrated analysis of heterogeneous diagnostics.

  4. BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF MULTIPLE HARMONIC OSCILLATIONS IN THE SOLAR CORONA

    SciTech Connect

    Arregui, I.; Asensio Ramos, A.; Diaz, A. J.

    2013-03-01

    The detection of multiple mode harmonic kink oscillations in coronal loops enables us to obtain information on coronal density stratification and magnetic field expansion using seismology inversion techniques. The inference is based on the measurement of the period ratio between the fundamental mode and the first overtone and theoretical results for the period ratio under the hypotheses of coronal density stratification and magnetic field expansion of the wave guide. We present a Bayesian analysis of multiple mode harmonic oscillations for the inversion of the density scale height and magnetic flux tube expansion under each of the hypotheses. The two models are then compared using a Bayesian model comparison scheme to assess how plausible each one is given our current state of knowledge.

  5. Phylogenetic analysis on the soil bacteria distributed in karst forest

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, JunPei; Huang, Ying; Mo, MingHe

    2009-01-01

    Phylogenetic composition of bacterial community in soil of a karst forest was analyzed by culture-independent molecular approach. The bacterial 16S rRNA gene was amplified directly from soil DNA and cloned to generate a library. After screening the clone library by RFLP, 16S rRNA genes of representative clones were sequenced and the bacterial community was analyzed phylogenetically. The 16S rRNA gene inserts of 190 clones randomly selected were analyzed by RFLP and generated 126 different RFLP types. After sequencing, 126 non-chimeric sequences were obtained, generating 113 phylotypes. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the bacteria distributed in soil of the karst forest included the members assigning into Proteobacteria, Acidobacteria, Planctomycetes, Chloroflexi (Green nonsulfur bacteria), Bacteroidetes, Verrucomicrobia, Nitrospirae, Actinobacteria (High G+C Gram-positive bacteria), Firmicutes (Low G+C Gram-positive bacteria) and candidate divisions (including the SPAM and GN08). PMID:24031430

  6. Bayesian statistical analysis of protein side-chain rotamer preferences.

    PubMed Central

    Dunbrack, R. L.; Cohen, F. E.

    1997-01-01

    We present a Bayesian statistical analysis of the conformations of side chains in proteins from the Protein Data Bank. This is an extension of the backbone-dependent rotamer library, and includes rotamer populations and average chi angles for a full range of phi, psi values. The Bayesian analysis used here provides a rigorous statistical method for taking account of varying amounts of data. Bayesian statistics requires the assumption of a prior distribution for parameters over their range of possible values. This prior distribution can be derived from previous data or from pooling some of the present data. The prior distribution is combined with the data to form the posterior distribution, which is a compromise between the prior distribution and the data. For the chi 2, chi 3, and chi 4 rotamer prior distributions, we assume that the probability of each rotamer type is dependent only on the previous chi rotamer in the chain. For the backbone-dependence of the chi 1 rotamers, we derive prior distributions from the product of the phi-dependent and psi-dependent probabilities. Molecular mechanics calculations with the CHARMM22 potential show a strong similarity with the experimental distributions, indicating that proteins attain their lowest energy rotamers with respect to local backbone-side-chain interactions. The new library is suitable for use in homology modeling, protein folding simulations, and the refinement of X-ray and NMR structures. PMID:9260279

  7. A Bayesian Nonparametric Meta-Analysis Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karabatsos, George; Talbott, Elizabeth; Walker, Stephen G.

    2015-01-01

    In a meta-analysis, it is important to specify a model that adequately describes the effect-size distribution of the underlying population of studies. The conventional normal fixed-effect and normal random-effects models assume a normal effect-size population distribution, conditionally on parameters and covariates. For estimating the mean overall…

  8. Mitochondrial DNA Genomes Organization and Phylogenetic Relationships Analysis of Eight Anemonefishes (Pomacentridae: Amphiprioninae)

    PubMed Central

    Li, Jianlong; Chen, Xiao; Kang, Bin; Liu, Min

    2015-01-01

    Anemonefishes (Pomacentridae Amphiprioninae) are a group of 30 valid coral reef fish species with their phylogenetic relationships still under debate. The eight available mitogenomes of anemonefishes were used to reconstruct the molecular phylogenetic tree; six were obtained from this study (Amphiprion clarkii, A. frenatus, A. percula, A. perideraion, A. polymnus and Premnas biaculeatus) and two from GenBank (A. bicinctus and A. ocellaris). The seven Amphiprion species represent all four subgenera and P. biaculeatus is the only species from Premnas. The eight mitogenomes of anemonefishes encoded 13 protein-coding genes, two rRNA genes, 22 tRNA genes and two main non-coding regions, with the gene arrangement and translation direction basically identical to other typical vertebrate mitogenomes. Among the 13 protein-coding genes, A. ocellaris (AP006017) and A. percula (KJ174497) had the same length in ND5 with 1,866 bp, which were three nucleotides less than the other six anemonefishes. Both structures of ND5, however, could translate to amino acid successfully. Only four mitogenomes had the tandem repeats in D-loop; the tandem repeats were located in downstream after Conserved Sequence Block rather than the upstream and repeated in a simply way. The phylogenetic utility was tested with Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood methods using all 13 protein-coding genes. The results strongly supported that the subfamily Amphiprioninae was monophyletic and P. biaculeatus should be assigned to the genus Amphiprion. Premnas biaculeatus with the percula complex were revealed to be the ancient anemonefish species. The tree forms of ND1, COIII, ND4, Cytb, Cytb+12S rRNA, Cytb+COI and Cytb+COI+12S rRNA were similar to that 13 protein-coding genes, therefore, we suggested that the suitable single mitochondrial gene for phylogenetic analysis of anemonefishes maybe Cytb. Additional mitogenomes of anemonefishes with a combination of nuclear markers will be useful to substantiate these

  9. Risk analysis using a hybrid Bayesian-approximate reasoning methodology.

    SciTech Connect

    Bott, T. F.; Eisenhawer, S. W.

    2001-01-01

    Analysts are sometimes asked to make frequency estimates for specific accidents in which the accident frequency is determined primarily by safety controls. Under these conditions, frequency estimates use considerable expert belief in determining how the controls affect the accident frequency. To evaluate and document beliefs about control effectiveness, we have modified a traditional Bayesian approach by using approximate reasoning (AR) to develop prior distributions. Our method produces accident frequency estimates that separately express the probabilistic results produced in Bayesian analysis and possibilistic results that reflect uncertainty about the prior estimates. Based on our experience using traditional methods, we feel that the AR approach better documents beliefs about the effectiveness of controls than if the beliefs are buried in Bayesian prior distributions. We have performed numerous expert elicitations in which probabilistic information was sought from subject matter experts not trained In probability. We find it rnuch easier to elicit the linguistic variables and fuzzy set membership values used in AR than to obtain the probability distributions used in prior distributions directly from these experts because it better captures their beliefs and better expresses their uncertainties.

  10. Bayesian analysis of botanical epidemics using stochastic compartmental models.

    PubMed

    Gibson, G J; Kleczkowski, A; Gilligan, C A

    2004-08-17

    A stochastic model for an epidemic, incorporating susceptible, latent, and infectious states, is developed. The model represents primary and secondary infection rates and a time-varying host susceptibility with applications to a wide range of epidemiological systems. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is presented that allows the model to be fitted to experimental observations within a Bayesian framework. The approach allows the uncertainty in unobserved aspects of the process to be represented in the parameter posterior densities. The methods are applied to experimental observations of damping-off of radish (Raphanus sativus) caused by the fungal pathogen Rhizoctonia solani, in the presence and absence of the antagonistic fungus Trichoderma viride, a biological control agent that has previously been shown to affect the rate of primary infection by using a maximum-likelihood estimate for a simpler model with no allowance for a latent period. Using the Bayesian analysis, we are able to estimate the latent period from population data, even when there is uncertainty in discriminating infectious from latently infected individuals in data collection. We also show that the inference that T. viride can control primary, but not secondary, infection is robust to inclusion of the latent period in the model, although the absolute values of the parameters change. Some refinements and potential difficulties with the Bayesian approach in this context, when prior information on parameters is lacking, are discussed along with broader applications of the methods to a wide range of epidemiological systems.

  11. pplacer: linear time maximum-likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic placement of sequences onto a fixed reference tree

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Likelihood-based phylogenetic inference is generally considered to be the most reliable classification method for unknown sequences. However, traditional likelihood-based phylogenetic methods cannot be applied to large volumes of short reads from next-generation sequencing due to computational complexity issues and lack of phylogenetic signal. "Phylogenetic placement," where a reference tree is fixed and the unknown query sequences are placed onto the tree via a reference alignment, is a way to bring the inferential power offered by likelihood-based approaches to large data sets. Results This paper introduces pplacer, a software package for phylogenetic placement and subsequent visualization. The algorithm can place twenty thousand short reads on a reference tree of one thousand taxa per hour per processor, has essentially linear time and memory complexity in the number of reference taxa, and is easy to run in parallel. Pplacer features calculation of the posterior probability of a placement on an edge, which is a statistically rigorous way of quantifying uncertainty on an edge-by-edge basis. It also can inform the user of the positional uncertainty for query sequences by calculating expected distance between placement locations, which is crucial in the estimation of uncertainty with a well-sampled reference tree. The software provides visualizations using branch thickness and color to represent number of placements and their uncertainty. A simulation study using reads generated from 631 COG alignments shows a high level of accuracy for phylogenetic placement over a wide range of alignment diversity, and the power of edge uncertainty estimates to measure placement confidence. Conclusions Pplacer enables efficient phylogenetic placement and subsequent visualization, making likelihood-based phylogenetics methodology practical for large collections of reads; it is freely available as source code, binaries, and a web service. PMID:21034504

  12. A Deliberate Practice Approach to Teaching Phylogenetic Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Hobbs, F. Collin; Johnson, Daniel J.; Kearns, Katherine D.

    2013-01-01

    One goal of postsecondary education is to assist students in developing expert-level understanding. Previous attempts to encourage expert-level understanding of phylogenetic analysis in college science classrooms have largely focused on isolated, or “one-shot,” in-class activities. Using a deliberate practice instructional approach, we designed a set of five assignments for a 300-level plant systematics course that incrementally introduces the concepts and skills used in phylogenetic analysis. In our assignments, students learned the process of constructing phylogenetic trees through a series of increasingly difficult tasks; thus, skill development served as a framework for building content knowledge. We present results from 5 yr of final exam scores, pre- and postconcept assessments, and student surveys to assess the impact of our new pedagogical materials on student performance related to constructing and interpreting phylogenetic trees. Students improved in their ability to interpret relationships within trees and improved in several aspects related to between-tree comparisons and tree construction skills. Student feedback indicated that most students believed our approach prepared them to engage in tree construction and gave them confidence in their abilities. Overall, our data confirm that instructional approaches implementing deliberate practice address student misconceptions, improve student experiences, and foster deeper understanding of difficult scientific concepts. PMID:24297294

  13. Molecular Phylogenetic Analysis of Infidum similis, Including Morphological Data and Estimation of its Genome Size.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Salazar, Elizabeth A; Rosas-Valdez, Rogelio; Gregory, T Ryan; Violante-González, Juan

    2016-08-01

    :   Infidum similis Travassos, 1916 (Dicrocoeliidae: Leipertrematinae) was found in the gall bladder of Leptophis diplotropis Günther, 1872 from El Podrido, Acapulco, Guerrero, Mexico. A phylogenetic analysis based on partial sequences of the 28S ribosomal RNA using maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian inference (BI) analyses was carried out to assess its phylogenetic position within suborder Xiphidiata, alongside members of the superfamilies Gorgoderoidea and Plagiorchoidea. The phylogenetic trees showed that the genus is most-closely related to the Plagiorchoidea rather than to the Gorgoderoidea, in keeping with previous taxonomic designations. Phylogenies obtained from ML and BI analysis of the 28S rDNA gene revealed a well supported clade in which Choledocystus hepaticus (Lutz, 1928) Sullivan, 1977 is sister to I. similis. On the other hand, a tree obtained using a partial sequence of the cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (cox1) mtDNA gene (ML and BI analysis), with species supposed to be closely related to I. similis according to 28S, does not support this relatedness. Based on the independence of Infidum from the subfamily Leipertrematinae Yamaguti, 1958 , our results clearly demonstrated that the genus corresponds to a different family and with species closely related to C. hepaticus within Plagiorchoidea. New data are presented about the tegumental surface of I. similis by scanning electron microscopy as well as the estimation of its haploid genome size using Feulgen Image Analysis Densitometry of sperm nuclei as part of the characterization of this species. This is the first genome size estimated for a member of Plagiorchiida, and these data will provide a new source of knowledge on helminth diversity and evolutionary studies. This constitutes the first host record, and new geographical distribution, for this species in Mexico. PMID:26998629

  14. Bayesian sensitivity analysis of bifurcating nonlinear models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Becker, W.; Worden, K.; Rowson, J.

    2013-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis allows one to investigate how changes in input parameters to a system affect the output. When computational expense is a concern, metamodels such as Gaussian processes can offer considerable computational savings over Monte Carlo methods, albeit at the expense of introducing a data modelling problem. In particular, Gaussian processes assume a smooth, non-bifurcating response surface. This work highlights a recent extension to Gaussian processes which uses a decision tree to partition the input space into homogeneous regions, and then fits separate Gaussian processes to each region. In this way, bifurcations can be modelled at region boundaries and different regions can have different covariance properties. To test this method, both the treed and standard methods were applied to the bifurcating response of a Duffing oscillator and a bifurcating FE model of a heart valve. It was found that the treed Gaussian process provides a practical way of performing uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on large, potentially-bifurcating models, which cannot be dealt with by using a single GP, although an open problem remains how to manage bifurcation boundaries that are not parallel to coordinate axes.

  15. Molecular Epidemiology and Phylogenetic Analysis of Human Adenovirus Caused an Outbreak in Taiwan during 2011

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Yung-Cheng; Lu, Po-Liang; Lin, Kuei-Hsiang; Chu, Pei-Yu; Wang, Chu-Feng; Lin, Jih-Hui; Liu, Hsin-Fu

    2015-01-01

    An outbreak of adenovirus has been surveyed in Taiwan in 2011. To better understand the evolution and epidemiology of adenovirus in Taiwan, full-length sequence of hexon and fiber coapsid protein was analyzed using series of phylogenetic and dynamic evolution tools. Six different serotypes were identified in this outbreak and the species B was predominant (HAdV-3, 71.50%; HAdV-7, 15.46%). The most frequent diagnosis was acute tonsillitis (54.59%) and bronchitis (47.83%). Phylogenetic analysis revealed that hexon protein gene sequences were highly conserved for HAdV-3 and HAdV-7 circulation in Taiwan. However, comparison of restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis and phylogenetic trees of fiber gene in HAdV-7 clearly indicated that the predominant genotype in Taiwan has shifted from 7b to 7d. Several positive selection sites were observed in hexon protein. The estimated nucleotide substitution rates of hexon protein of HAdV-3 and HAdV-7 were 0.234×10-3 substitutions/site/year (95% HPD: 0.387~0.095×10-3) and 1.107×10-3 (95% HPD: 0. 541~1.604) respectively; those of the fiber protein of HAdV-3 and HAdV-7 were 1.085×10-3 (95% HPD: 1.767~0.486) and 0.132×10-3 (95% HPD: 0.283~0.014) respectively. Phylodynamic analysis by Bayesian skyline plot (BSP) suggested that using individual gene to evaluate the effective population size might possibly cause miscalculation. In summary, the virus evolution is ongoing, and continuous surveillance of this virus evolution will contribute to the control of the epidemic. PMID:25992619

  16. Structure-Based Phylogenetic Analysis of the Lipocalin Superfamily

    PubMed Central

    Lakshmi, Balasubramanian; Mishra, Madhulika; Srinivasan, Narayanaswamy; Archunan, Govindaraju

    2015-01-01

    Lipocalins constitute a superfamily of extracellular proteins that are found in all three kingdoms of life. Although very divergent in their sequences and functions, they show remarkable similarity in 3-D structures. Lipocalins bind and transport small hydrophobic molecules. Earlier sequence-based phylogenetic studies of lipocalins highlighted that they have a long evolutionary history. However the molecular and structural basis of their functional diversity is not completely understood. The main objective of the present study is to understand functional diversity of the lipocalins using a structure-based phylogenetic approach. The present study with 39 protein domains from the lipocalin superfamily suggests that the clusters of lipocalins obtained by structure-based phylogeny correspond well with the functional diversity. The detailed analysis on each of the clusters and sub-clusters reveals that the 39 lipocalin domains cluster based on their mode of ligand binding though the clustering was performed on the basis of gross domain structure. The outliers in the phylogenetic tree are often from single member families. Also structure-based phylogenetic approach has provided pointers to assign putative function for the domains of unknown function in lipocalin family. The approach employed in the present study can be used in the future for the functional identification of new lipocalin proteins and may be extended to other protein families where members show poor sequence similarity but high structural similarity. PMID:26263546

  17. Bayesian analysis for extreme climatic events: A review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chu, Pao-Shin; Zhao, Xin

    2011-11-01

    This article reviews Bayesian analysis methods applied to extreme climatic data. We particularly focus on applications to three different problems related to extreme climatic events including detection of abrupt regime shifts, clustering tropical cyclone tracks, and statistical forecasting for seasonal tropical cyclone activity. For identifying potential change points in an extreme event count series, a hierarchical Bayesian framework involving three layers - data, parameter, and hypothesis - is formulated to demonstrate the posterior probability of the shifts throughout the time. For the data layer, a Poisson process with a gamma distributed rate is presumed. For the hypothesis layer, multiple candidate hypotheses with different change-points are considered. To calculate the posterior probability for each hypothesis and its associated parameters we developed an exact analytical formula, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, and a more sophisticated reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm. The algorithms are applied to several rare event series: the annual tropical cyclone or typhoon counts over the central, eastern, and western North Pacific; the annual extremely heavy rainfall event counts at Manoa, Hawaii; and the annual heat wave frequency in France. Using an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, a Bayesian clustering method built on a mixture Gaussian model is applied to objectively classify historical, spaghetti-like tropical cyclone tracks (1945-2007) over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea into eight distinct track types. A regression based approach to forecasting seasonal tropical cyclone frequency in a region is developed. Specifically, by adopting large-scale environmental conditions prior to the tropical cyclone season, a Poisson regression model is built for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone counts, and a probit regression model is alternatively developed toward a binary classification problem. With a non

  18. The Bayesian Analysis Software Developed At Washington University

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marutyan, Karen R.; Bretthorst, G. Larry

    2009-12-01

    Over the last few years there has been an ongoing effort at the Biomedical Magnetic Resonance Laboratory within Washington University to develop data analysis applications using Bayesian probability theory. A few of these applications are specific to Magnetic Resonance data, however, most are general and can analyze data from a wide variety of sources. These data analysis applications are server based and they have been written in such a way as to allow them to utilize as many processors as are available. The interface to these Bayesian applications is a client based Java interface. The client, usually a Windows PC, runs the interface, sets up an analysis, sends the analysis to the server, fetches the results and displays the appropriate plots on the users client machine. Together, the client and server software can be used to solve a host of interesting problems that occur regularly in the sciences. In this paper, we describe both the client and server software and briefly discuss how to acquire, install and maintain this software.

  19. Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of Statistical Models with Missing Data

    PubMed Central

    ZHU, HONGTU; IBRAHIM, JOSEPH G.; TANG, NIANSHENG

    2013-01-01

    Methods for handling missing data depend strongly on the mechanism that generated the missing values, such as missing completely at random (MCAR) or missing at random (MAR), as well as other distributional and modeling assumptions at various stages. It is well known that the resulting estimates and tests may be sensitive to these assumptions as well as to outlying observations. In this paper, we introduce various perturbations to modeling assumptions and individual observations, and then develop a formal sensitivity analysis to assess these perturbations in the Bayesian analysis of statistical models with missing data. We develop a geometric framework, called the Bayesian perturbation manifold, to characterize the intrinsic structure of these perturbations. We propose several intrinsic influence measures to perform sensitivity analysis and quantify the effect of various perturbations to statistical models. We use the proposed sensitivity analysis procedure to systematically investigate the tenability of the non-ignorable missing at random (NMAR) assumption. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate our methods, and a dataset is analyzed to illustrate the use of our diagnostic measures. PMID:24753718

  20. Bayesian analysis to detect abrupt changes in extreme hydrological processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jo, Seongil; Kim, Gwangsu; Jeon, Jong-June

    2016-07-01

    In this study, we develop a new method for a Bayesian change point analysis. The proposed method is easy to implement and can be extended to a wide class of distributions. Using a generalized extreme-value distribution, we investigate the annual maximum of precipitations observed at stations in the South Korean Peninsula, and find significant changes in the considered sites. We evaluate the hydrological risk in predictions using the estimated return levels. In addition, we explain that the misspecification of the probability model can lead to a bias in the number of change points and using a simple example, show that this problem is difficult to avoid by technical data transformation.

  1. A Bayesian analysis of pentaquark signals from CLAS data

    SciTech Connect

    David Ireland; Bryan McKinnon; Dan Protopopescu; Pawel Ambrozewicz; Marco Anghinolfi; G. Asryan; Harutyun Avakian; H. Bagdasaryan; Nathan Baillie; Jacques Ball; Nathan Baltzell; V. Batourine; Marco Battaglieri; Ivan Bedlinski; Ivan Bedlinskiy; Matthew Bellis; Nawal Benmouna; Barry Berman; Angela Biselli; Lukasz Blaszczyk; Sylvain Bouchigny; Sergey Boyarinov; Robert Bradford; Derek Branford; William Briscoe; William Brooks; Volker Burkert; Cornel Butuceanu; John Calarco; Sharon Careccia; Daniel Carman; Liam Casey; Shifeng Chen; Lu Cheng; Philip Cole; Patrick Collins; Philip Coltharp; Donald Crabb; Volker Crede; Natalya Dashyan; Rita De Masi; Raffaella De Vita; Enzo De Sanctis; Pavel Degtiarenko; Alexandre Deur; Richard Dickson; Chaden Djalali; Gail Dodge; Joseph Donnelly; David Doughty; Michael Dugger; Oleksandr Dzyubak; Hovanes Egiyan; Kim Egiyan; Lamiaa Elfassi; Latifa Elouadrhiri; Paul Eugenio; Gleb Fedotov; Gerald Feldman; Ahmed Fradi; Herbert Funsten; Michel Garcon; Gagik Gavalian; Nerses Gevorgyan; Gerard Gilfoyle; Kevin Giovanetti; Francois-Xavier Girod; John Goetz; Wesley Gohn; Atilla Gonenc; Ralf Gothe; Keith Griffioen; Michel Guidal; Nevzat Guler; Lei Guo; Vardan Gyurjyan; Kawtar Hafidi; Hayk Hakobyan; Charles Hanretty; Neil Hassall; F. Hersman; Ishaq Hleiqawi; Maurik Holtrop; Charles Hyde; Yordanka Ilieva; Boris Ishkhanov; Eugeny Isupov; D. Jenkins; Hyon-Suk Jo; John Johnstone; Kyungseon Joo; Henry Juengst; Narbe Kalantarians; James Kellie; Mahbubul Khandaker; Wooyoung Kim; Andreas Klein; Franz Klein; Mikhail Kossov; Zebulun Krahn; Laird Kramer; Valery Kubarovsky; Joachim Kuhn; Sergey Kuleshov; Viacheslav Kuznetsov; Jeff Lachniet; Jean Laget; Jorn Langheinrich; D. Lawrence; Kenneth Livingston; Haiyun Lu; Marion MacCormick; Nikolai Markov; Paul Mattione; Bernhard Mecking; Mac Mestayer; Curtis Meyer; Tsutomu Mibe; Konstantin Mikhaylov; Marco Mirazita; Rory Miskimen; Viktor Mokeev; Brahim Moreno; Kei Moriya; Steven Morrow; Maryam Moteabbed; Edwin Munevar Espitia; Gordon Mutchler; Pawel Nadel-Turonski; Rakhsha Nasseripour; Silvia Niccolai; Gabriel Niculescu; Maria-Ioana Niculescu; Bogdan Niczyporuk; Megh Niroula; Rustam Niyazov; Mina Nozar; Mikhail Osipenko; Alexander Ostrovidov; Kijun Park; Evgueni Pasyuk; Craig Paterson; Sergio Pereira; Joshua Pierce; Nikolay Pivnyuk; Oleg Pogorelko; Sergey Pozdnyakov; John Price; Sebastien Procureur; Yelena Prok; Brian Raue; Giovanni Ricco; Marco Ripani; Barry Ritchie; Federico Ronchetti; Guenther Rosner; Patrizia Rossi; Franck Sabatie; Julian Salamanca; Carlos Salgado; Joseph Santoro; Vladimir Sapunenko; Reinhard Schumacher; Vladimir Serov; Youri Sharabian; Dmitri Sharov; Nikolay Shvedunov; Elton Smith; Lee Smith; Daniel Sober; Daria Sokhan; Aleksey Stavinskiy; Samuel Stepanyan; Stepan Stepanyan; Burnham Stokes; Paul Stoler; Steffen Strauch; Mauro Taiuti; David Tedeschi; Ulrike Thoma; Avtandil Tkabladze; Svyatoslav Tkachenko; Clarisse Tur; Maurizio Ungaro; Michael Vineyard; Alexander Vlassov; Daniel Watts; Lawrence Weinstein; Dennis Weygand; M. Williams; Elliott Wolin; M.H. Wood; Amrit Yegneswaran; Lorenzo Zana; Jixie Zhang; Bo Zhao; Zhiwen Zhao

    2008-02-01

    We examine the results of two measurements by the CLAS collaboration, one of which claimed evidence for a $\\Theta^{+}$ pentaquark, whilst the other found no such evidence. The unique feature of these two experiments was that they were performed with the same experimental setup. Using a Bayesian analysis we find that the results of the two experiments are in fact compatible with each other, but that the first measurement did not contain sufficient information to determine unambiguously the existence of a $\\Theta^{+}$. Further, we suggest a means by which the existence of a new candidate particle can be tested in a rigorous manner.

  2. On universal common ancestry, sequence similarity, and phylogenetic structure: the sins of P-values and the virtues of Bayesian evidence

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background The universal common ancestry (UCA) of all known life is a fundamental component of modern evolutionary theory, supported by a wide range of qualitative molecular evidence. Nevertheless, recently both the status and nature of UCA has been questioned. In earlier work I presented a formal, quantitative test of UCA in which model selection criteria overwhelmingly choose common ancestry over independent ancestry, based on a dataset of universally conserved proteins. These model-based tests are founded in likelihoodist and Bayesian probability theory, in opposition to classical frequentist null hypothesis tests such as Karlin-Altschul E-values for sequence similarity. In a recent comment, Koonin and Wolf (K&W) claim that the model preference for UCA is "a trivial consequence of significant sequence similarity". They support this claim with a computational simulation, derived from universally conserved proteins, which produces similar sequences lacking phylogenetic structure. The model selection tests prefer common ancestry for this artificial data set. Results For the real universal protein sequences, hierarchical phylogenetic structure (induced by genealogical history) is the overriding reason for why the tests choose UCA; sequence similarity is a relatively minor factor. First, for cases of conflicting phylogenetic structure, the tests choose independent ancestry even with highly similar sequences. Second, certain models, like star trees and K&W's profile model (corresponding to their simulation), readily explain sequence similarity yet lack phylogenetic structure. However, these are extremely poor models for the real proteins, even worse than independent ancestry models, though they explain K&W's artificial data well. Finally, K&W's simulation is an implementation of a well-known phylogenetic model, and it produces sequences that mimic homologous proteins. Therefore the model selection tests work appropriately with the artificial data. Conclusions For K

  3. Bayesian analysis of inflationary features in Planck and SDSS data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benetti, Micol; Alcaniz, Jailson S.

    2016-07-01

    We perform a Bayesian analysis to study possible features in the primordial inflationary power spectrum of scalar perturbations. In particular, we analyze the possibility of detecting the imprint of these primordial features in the anisotropy temperature power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and also in the matter power spectrum P (k ) . We use the most recent CMB data provided by the Planck Collaboration and P (k ) measurements from the 11th data release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We focus our analysis on a class of potentials whose features are localized at different intervals of angular scales, corresponding to multipoles in the ranges 10 <ℓ<60 (Oscill-1) and 150 <ℓ<300 (Oscill-2). Our results show that one of the step potentials (Oscill-1) provides a better fit to the CMB data than does the featureless Λ CDM scenario, with moderate Bayesian evidence in favor of the former. Adding the P (k ) data to the analysis weakens the evidence of the Oscill-1 potential relative to the standard model and strengthens the evidence of this latter scenario with respect to the Oscill-2 model.

  4. Implementation of a Bayesian Engine for Uncertainty Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Leng Vang; Curtis Smith; Steven Prescott

    2014-08-01

    In probabilistic risk assessment, it is important to have an environment where analysts have access to a shared and secured high performance computing and a statistical analysis tool package. As part of the advanced small modular reactor probabilistic risk analysis framework implementation, we have identified the need for advanced Bayesian computations. However, in order to make this technology available to non-specialists, there is also a need of a simplified tool that allows users to author models and evaluate them within this framework. As a proof-of-concept, we have implemented an advanced open source Bayesian inference tool, OpenBUGS, within the browser-based cloud risk analysis framework that is under development at the Idaho National Laboratory. This development, the “OpenBUGS Scripter” has been implemented as a client side, visual web-based and integrated development environment for creating OpenBUGS language scripts. It depends on the shared server environment to execute the generated scripts and to transmit results back to the user. The visual models are in the form of linked diagrams, from which we automatically create the applicable OpenBUGS script that matches the diagram. These diagrams can be saved locally or stored on the server environment to be shared with other users.

  5. Analysis of diversification: combining phylogenetic and taxonomic data.

    PubMed

    Paradis, Emmanuel

    2003-12-01

    The estimation of diversification rates using phylogenetic data has attracted a lot of attention in the past decade. In this context, the analysis of incomplete phylogenies (e.g. phylogenies resolved at the family level but unresolved at the species level) has remained difficult. I present here a likelihood-based method to combine partly resolved phylogenies with taxonomic (species-richness) data to estimate speciation and extinction rates. This method is based on fitting a birth-and-death model to both phylogenetic and taxonomic data. Some examples of the method are presented with data on birds and on mammals. The method is compared with existing approaches that deal with incomplete phylogenies. Some applications and generalizations of the approach introduced in this paper are further discussed.

  6. Phylogenetic and epidemiological analysis of Neisseria meningitidis using DNA probes.

    PubMed Central

    Ni, H.; Knight, A. I.; Cartwright, K. A.; McFadden, J. J.

    1992-01-01

    The genetic relationships between various serotypes and serogroups of meningococcal strains were investigated by restriction fragment-length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis using a number of random DNA probes and a probe containing a truncated copy of the meningococcal insertion sequence IS1106. The data were used to estimate genetic distance between all pairs of strains and to construct phylogenetic trees for meningococcal strains. B15:P1.16R strains isolated from cases of systemic meningococcal disease in two health districts with a high incidence of disease were clonal in contrast to similar strains from cases occurring in other parts of the UK. Strains from these areas, which contain a similar genomic deletion, were found to be derived from two distinct lineages within the B15:P1.16R phylogenetic group. RFLP data demonstrated that present serological typing systems for the meningococcus do not necessarily reflect true genetic relationships. Images Fig. 1 PMID:1356820

  7. Node Augmentation Technique in Bayesian Network Evidence Analysis and Marshaling

    SciTech Connect

    Keselman, Dmitry; Tompkins, George H; Leishman, Deborah A

    2010-01-01

    Given a Bayesian network, sensitivity analysis is an important activity. This paper begins by describing a network augmentation technique which can simplifY the analysis. Next, we present two techniques which allow the user to determination the probability distribution of a hypothesis node under conditions of uncertain evidence; i.e. the state of an evidence node or nodes is described by a user specified probability distribution. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of three criteria for ranking evidence nodes based on their influence on a hypothesis node. All of these techniques have been used in conjunction with a commercial software package. A Bayesian network based on a directed acyclic graph (DAG) G is a graphical representation of a system of random variables that satisfies the following Markov property: any node (random variable) is independent of its non-descendants given the state of all its parents (Neapolitan, 2004). For simplicities sake, we consider only discrete variables with a finite number of states, though most of the conclusions may be generalized.

  8. Bayesian semiparametric meta-analysis for genetic association studies.

    PubMed

    De Iorio, Maria; Newcombe, Paul J; Tachmazidou, Ioanna; Verzilli, Claudio J; Whittaker, John C

    2011-07-01

    We present a Bayesian semiparametric model for the meta-analysis of candidate gene studies with a binary outcome. Such studies often report results from association tests for different, possibly study-specific and non-overlapping genetic markers in the same genetic region. Meta-analyses of the results at each marker in isolation are seldom appropriate as they ignore the correlation that may exist between markers due to linkage disequilibrium (LD) and cannot assess the relative importance of variants at each marker. Also such marker-wise meta-analyses are restricted to only those studies that have typed the marker in question, with a potential loss of power. A better strategy is one which incorporates information about the LD between markers so that any combined estimate of the effect of each variant is corrected for the effect of other variants, as in multiple regression. Here we develop a Bayesian semiparametric model which models the observed genotype group frequencies conditional to the case/control status and uses pairwise LD measurements between markers as prior information to make posterior inference on adjusted effects. The approach allows borrowing of strength across studies and across markers. The analysis is based on a mixture of Dirichlet processes model as the underlying semiparametric model. Full posterior inference is performed through Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. The approach is demonstrated on simulated and real data. PMID:21400586

  9. Bayesian analysis of physiologically based toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic models.

    PubMed

    Hack, C Eric

    2006-04-17

    Physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) and toxicodynamic (TD) models of bromate in animals and humans would improve our ability to accurately estimate the toxic doses in humans based on available animal studies. These mathematical models are often highly parameterized and must be calibrated in order for the model predictions of internal dose to adequately fit the experimentally measured doses. Highly parameterized models are difficult to calibrate and it is difficult to obtain accurate estimates of uncertainty or variability in model parameters with commonly used frequentist calibration methods, such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) or least squared error approaches. The Bayesian approach called Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis can be used to successfully calibrate these complex models. Prior knowledge about the biological system and associated model parameters is easily incorporated in this approach in the form of prior parameter distributions, and the distributions are refined or updated using experimental data to generate posterior distributions of parameter estimates. The goal of this paper is to give the non-mathematician a brief description of the Bayesian approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis, how this technique is used in risk assessment, and the issues associated with this approach.

  10. Phylogenetic analysis of Primula section Primula reveals rampant non-monophyly among morphologically distinct species.

    PubMed

    Schmidt-Lebuhn, Alexander N; de Vos, Jurriaan M; Keller, Barbara; Conti, Elena

    2012-10-01

    The type section of Primula (Primulaceae), here considered to include seven species, is phylogenetically quite isolated in its genus. Although its species are popular ornamentals, traditional medicinal plants and model organisms for the study of heterostyly, the section has not yet been studied from a phylogenetic or evolutionary perspective. Using phylogenetic analysis of nuclear ITS and plastid data from all species and subspecies, we find that widespread Primula elatior is genetically heterogeneous and non-monophyletic to most if not all of the other ingroup taxa. The Genealogical Sorting Index (GSI) indicates that the assumption of all currently accepted species being independent lineages is consistent with the data. It is possible that P. elatior in its current circumscription may represents the disjointed remnant of an ancestral species from which the other recognized species diverged. However, based on available data, the alternative possibility of introgression explaining the non-monophyly of this species cannot be excluded. Species trees show P. elatior and P. veris as sister species. Primula vulgaris and P. juliae are closely related, while, in contrast to previous assumptions, P. renifolia does not appear to be a close relative of P. megaseifolia. With the section's isolation from the rest of the genus and very short internal branches, our dataset also presents a case study of the confounding effects of different branch length priors on the Bayesian estimation of resulting branch length estimates. Experimental runs using different priors confirm the problem of resulting estimates varying by orders of magnitude, while topology and relative branch lengths seem unaffected.

  11. A Comprehensive Phylogenetic Analysis of the Scleractinia (Cnidaria, Anthozoa) Based on Mitochondrial CO1 Sequence Data

    PubMed Central

    Kitahara, Marcelo V.; Cairns, Stephen D.; Stolarski, Jarosław; Blair, David; Miller, David J.

    2010-01-01

    Background Classical morphological taxonomy places the approximately 1400 recognized species of Scleractinia (hard corals) into 27 families, but many aspects of coral evolution remain unclear despite the application of molecular phylogenetic methods. In part, this may be a consequence of such studies focusing on the reef-building (shallow water and zooxanthellate) Scleractinia, and largely ignoring the large number of deep-sea species. To better understand broad patterns of coral evolution, we generated molecular data for a broad and representative range of deep sea scleractinians collected off New Caledonia and Australia during the last decade, and conducted the most comprehensive molecular phylogenetic analysis to date of the order Scleractinia. Methodology Partial (595 bp) sequences of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (CO1) gene were determined for 65 deep-sea (azooxanthellate) scleractinians and 11 shallow-water species. These new data were aligned with 158 published sequences, generating a 234 taxon dataset representing 25 of the 27 currently recognized scleractinian families. Principal Findings/Conclusions There was a striking discrepancy between the taxonomic validity of coral families consisting predominantly of deep-sea or shallow-water species. Most families composed predominantly of deep-sea azooxanthellate species were monophyletic in both maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses but, by contrast (and consistent with previous studies), most families composed predominantly of shallow-water zooxanthellate taxa were polyphyletic, although Acroporidae, Poritidae, Pocilloporidae, and Fungiidae were exceptions to this general pattern. One factor contributing to this inconsistency may be the greater environmental stability of deep-sea environments, effectively removing taxonomic “noise” contributed by phenotypic plasticity. Our phylogenetic analyses imply that the most basal extant scleractinians are azooxanthellate solitary corals from deep

  12. [A phylogenetic analysis of plant communities of Teberda Biosphere Reserve].

    PubMed

    Shulakov, A A; Egorov, A V; Onipchenko, V G

    2016-01-01

    Phylogenetic analysis of communities is based on the comparison of distances on the phylogenetic tree between species of a community under study and those distances in random samples taken out of local flora. It makes it possible to determine to what extent a community composition is formed by more closely related species (i.e., "clustered") or, on the opposite, it is more even and includes species that are less related with each other. The first case is usually interpreted as a result of strong influence caused by abiotic factors, due to which species with similar ecology, a priori more closely related, would remain: In the second case, biotic factors, such as competition, may come to the fore and lead to forming a community out of distant clades due to divergence of their ecological niches: The aim of this' study Was Ad explore the phylogenetic structure in communities of the northwestern Caucasus at two spatial scales - the scale of area from 4 to 100 m2 and the smaller scale within a community. The list of local flora of the alpine belt has been composed using the database of geobotanic descriptions carried out in Teberda Biosphere Reserve at true altitudes exceeding.1800 m. It includes 585 species of flowering plants belonging to 57 families. Basal groups of flowering plants are.not represented in the list. At the scale of communities of three classes, namely Thlaspietea rotundifolii - commumties formed on screes and pebbles, Calluno-Ulicetea - alpine meadow, and Mulgedio-Aconitetea subalpine meadows, have not demonstrated significant distinction of phylogenetic structure. At intra level, for alpine meadows the larger share of closely related species. (clustered community) is detected. Significantly clustered happen to be those communities developing on rocks (class Asplenietea trichomanis) and alpine (class Juncetea trifidi). At the same time, alpine lichen proved to have even phylogenetic structure at the small scale. Alpine (class Salicetea herbaceae) that

  13. [A phylogenetic analysis of plant communities of Teberda Biosphere Reserve].

    PubMed

    Shulakov, A A; Egorov, A V; Onipchenko, V G

    2016-01-01

    Phylogenetic analysis of communities is based on the comparison of distances on the phylogenetic tree between species of a community under study and those distances in random samples taken out of local flora. It makes it possible to determine to what extent a community composition is formed by more closely related species (i.e., "clustered") or, on the opposite, it is more even and includes species that are less related with each other. The first case is usually interpreted as a result of strong influence caused by abiotic factors, due to which species with similar ecology, a priori more closely related, would remain: In the second case, biotic factors, such as competition, may come to the fore and lead to forming a community out of distant clades due to divergence of their ecological niches: The aim of this' study Was Ad explore the phylogenetic structure in communities of the northwestern Caucasus at two spatial scales - the scale of area from 4 to 100 m2 and the smaller scale within a community. The list of local flora of the alpine belt has been composed using the database of geobotanic descriptions carried out in Teberda Biosphere Reserve at true altitudes exceeding.1800 m. It includes 585 species of flowering plants belonging to 57 families. Basal groups of flowering plants are.not represented in the list. At the scale of communities of three classes, namely Thlaspietea rotundifolii - commumties formed on screes and pebbles, Calluno-Ulicetea - alpine meadow, and Mulgedio-Aconitetea subalpine meadows, have not demonstrated significant distinction of phylogenetic structure. At intra level, for alpine meadows the larger share of closely related species. (clustered community) is detected. Significantly clustered happen to be those communities developing on rocks (class Asplenietea trichomanis) and alpine (class Juncetea trifidi). At the same time, alpine lichen proved to have even phylogenetic structure at the small scale. Alpine (class Salicetea herbaceae) that

  14. The Combination of Phylogenetic Analysis with Epidemiological and Serological Data to Track HIV-1 Transmission in a Sexual Transmission Case

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Min; Ma, Yanling; Yang, Chaojun; Yang, Li; Chen, Huichao; Dong, Lijuan; Dai, Jie; Jia, Manhong; Lu, Lin

    2015-01-01

    Objective To investigate the linkage of HIV transmission from a man to a woman through unprotected sexual contact without disclosing his HIV-positive status. Methods Combined with epidemiological information and serological tests, phylogenetic analysis was used to test the a priori hypothesis of HIV transmission from the man to the woman. Control subjects, infected with HIV through heterosexual intercourse, from the same location were also sampled. Phylogenetic analyses were performed using the consensus gag, pol and env sequences obtained from blood samples of the man, the woman and the local control subjects. The env quasispecies of the man, the woman, and two controls were also obtained using single genome amplification and sequencing (SGA/S) to explore the paraphyletic relationship by phylogenetic analysis. Results Epidemiological information and serological tests indicated that the man was infected with HIV-1 earlier than the woman. Phylogenetic analyses of the consensus sequences showed a monophyletic cluster for the man and woman in all three genomic regions. Furthermore, gag sequences of the man and woman shared a unique recombination pattern from subtype B and C, which was different from those of CRF07_BC or CRF08_BC observed in the local samples. These indicated that the viral sequences from the two subjects display a high level of similarity. Further, viral quasispecies from the man exhibited a paraphyletic relationship with those from the woman in the Bayesian and maximum-likelihood (ML) phylogenetic trees of the env region, which supported the transmission direction from the man to the woman. Conclusions In the context of epidemiological and serological evidence, the results of phylogenetic analyses support the transmission from the man to the woman. PMID:25807147

  15. Spatiotemporal Phylogenetic Analysis and Molecular Characterisation of Infectious Bursal Disease Viruses Based on the VP2 Hyper-Variable Region

    PubMed Central

    Dolz, Roser; Valle, Rosa; Perera, Carmen L.; Bertran, Kateri; Frías, Maria T.; Majó, Natàlia; Ganges, Llilianne; Pérez, Lester J.

    2013-01-01

    Background Infectious bursal disease is a highly contagious and acute viral disease caused by the infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV); it affects all major poultry producing areas of the world. The current study was designed to rigorously measure the global phylogeographic dynamics of IBDV strains to gain insight into viral population expansion as well as the emergence, spread and pattern of the geographical structure of very virulent IBDV (vvIBDV) strains. Methodology/Principal Findings Sequences of the hyper-variable region of the VP2 (HVR-VP2) gene from IBDV strains isolated from diverse geographic locations were obtained from the GenBank database; Cuban sequences were obtained in the current work. All sequences were analysed by Bayesian phylogeographic analysis, implemented in the Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis Sampling Trees (BEAST), Bayesian Tip-association Significance testing (BaTS) and Spatial Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Evolutionary Dynamics (SPREAD) software packages. Selection pressure on the HVR-VP2 was also assessed. The phylogeographic association-trait analysis showed that viruses sampled from individual countries tend to cluster together, suggesting a geographic pattern for IBDV strains. Spatial analysis from this study revealed that strains carrying sequences that were linked to increased virulence of IBDV appeared in Iran in 1981 and spread to Western Europe (Belgium) in 1987, Africa (Egypt) around 1990, East Asia (China and Japan) in 1993, the Caribbean Region (Cuba) by 1995 and South America (Brazil) around 2000. Selection pressure analysis showed that several codons in the HVR-VP2 region were under purifying selection. Conclusions/Significance To our knowledge, this work is the first study applying the Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction approach to analyse the emergence and spread of vvIBDV strains worldwide. PMID:23805195

  16. Large-scale analysis of phylogenetic search behavior.

    PubMed

    Park, Hyun Jung; Sul, Seung-Jin; Williams, Tiffani L

    2010-01-01

    Phylogenetic analysis is used in all branches of biology with applications ranging from studies on the origin of human populations to investigations of the transmission patterns of HIV. Most phylogenetic analyses rely on effective heuristics for obtaining accurate trees. However, relatively little work has been done to analyze quantitatively the behavior of phylogenetic heuristics in tree space. A better understanding of local search behavior can facilitate the design of better heuristics, which ultimately lead to more accurate depictions of the true evolutionary relationships. In this paper, we present new and novel insights into local search behavior for maximum parsimony on three biological datasets consisting of 44, 60, and 174 taxa. By analyzing all trees from search, we find that, as the search algorithm climbs the hill to local optima, the trees in the neighborhood surrounding the current solution improve as well. Furthermore, the search is quite robust to a small number of randomly selected neighbors. Thus, our work shows how to gain insights into the behavior of local search algorithm by exploring a large diverse collection of trees.

  17. Detection and phylogenetic analysis of bacteriophage WO in spiders (Araneae).

    PubMed

    Yan, Qian; Qiao, Huping; Gao, Jin; Yun, Yueli; Liu, Fengxiang; Peng, Yu

    2015-11-01

    Phage WO is a bacteriophage found in Wolbachia. Herein, we represent the first phylogenetic study of WOs that infect spiders (Araneae). Seven species of spiders (Araneus alternidens, Nephila clavata, Hylyphantes graminicola, Prosoponoides sinensis, Pholcus crypticolens, Coleosoma octomaculatum, and Nurscia albofasciata) from six families were infected by Wolbachia and WO, followed by comprehensive sequence analysis. Interestingly, WO could be only detected Wolbachia-infected spiders. The relative infection rates of those seven species of spiders were 75, 100, 88.9, 100, 62.5, 72.7, and 100 %, respectively. Our results indicated that both Wolbachia and WO were found in three different body parts of N. clavata, and WO could be passed to the next generation of H. graminicola by vertical transmission. There were three different sequences for WO infected in A. alternidens and two different WO sequences from C. octomaculatum. Only one sequence of WO was found for the other five species of spiders. The discovered sequence of WO ranged from 239 to 311 bp. Phylogenetic tree was generated using maximum likelihood (ML) based on the orf7 gene sequences. According to the phylogenetic tree, WOs in N. clavata and H. graminicola were clustered in the same group. WOs from A. alternidens (WAlt1) and C. octomaculatum (WOct2) were closely related to another clade, whereas WO in P. sinensis was classified as a sole cluster.

  18. Bayesian robust analysis for genetic architecture of quantitative traits

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Runqing; Wang, Xin; Li, Jian; Deng, Hongwen

    2009-01-01

    Motivation: In most quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping studies, phenotypes are assumed to follow normal distributions. Deviations from this assumption may affect the accuracy of QTL detection and lead to detection of spurious QTLs. To improve the robustness of QTL mapping methods, we replaced the normal distribution for residuals in multiple interacting QTL models with the normal/independent distributions that are a class of symmetric and long-tailed distributions and are able to accommodate residual outliers. Subsequently, we developed a Bayesian robust analysis strategy for dissecting genetic architecture of quantitative traits and for mapping genome-wide interacting QTLs in line crosses. Results: Through computer simulations, we showed that our strategy had a similar power for QTL detection compared with traditional methods assuming normal-distributed traits, but had a substantially increased power for non-normal phenotypes. When this strategy was applied to a group of traits associated with physical/chemical characteristics and quality in rice, more main and epistatic QTLs were detected than traditional Bayesian model analyses under the normal assumption. Contact: runqingyang@sjtu.edu.cn; dengh@umkc.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:18974168

  19. Bayesian Models for fMRI Data Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Linlin; Guindani, Michele; Vannucci, Marina

    2015-01-01

    Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), a noninvasive neuroimaging method that provides an indirect measure of neuronal activity by detecting blood flow changes, has experienced an explosive growth in the past years. Statistical methods play a crucial role in understanding and analyzing fMRI data. Bayesian approaches, in particular, have shown great promise in applications. A remarkable feature of fully Bayesian approaches is that they allow a flexible modeling of spatial and temporal correlations in the data. This paper provides a review of the most relevant models developed in recent years. We divide methods according to the objective of the analysis. We start from spatio-temporal models for fMRI data that detect task-related activation patterns. We then address the very important problem of estimating brain connectivity. We also touch upon methods that focus on making predictions of an individual's brain activity or a clinical or behavioral response. We conclude with a discussion of recent integrative models that aim at combining fMRI data with other imaging modalities, such as EEG/MEG and DTI data, measured on the same subjects. We also briefly discuss the emerging field of imaging genetics. PMID:25750690

  20. A Bayesian Framework for Reliability Analysis of Spacecraft Deployments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Evans, John W.; Gallo, Luis; Kaminsky, Mark

    2012-01-01

    Deployable subsystems are essential to mission success of most spacecraft. These subsystems enable critical functions including power, communications and thermal control. The loss of any of these functions will generally result in loss of the mission. These subsystems and their components often consist of unique designs and applications for which various standardized data sources are not applicable for estimating reliability and for assessing risks. In this study, a two stage sequential Bayesian framework for reliability estimation of spacecraft deployment was developed for this purpose. This process was then applied to the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Sunshield subsystem, a unique design intended for thermal control of the Optical Telescope Element. Initially, detailed studies of NASA deployment history, "heritage information", were conducted, extending over 45 years of spacecraft launches. This information was then coupled to a non-informative prior and a binomial likelihood function to create a posterior distribution for deployments of various subsystems uSing Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampling. Select distributions were then coupled to a subsequent analysis, using test data and anomaly occurrences on successive ground test deployments of scale model test articles of JWST hardware, to update the NASA heritage data. This allowed for a realistic prediction for the reliability of the complex Sunshield deployment, with credibility limits, within this two stage Bayesian framework.

  1. Computational Tools for Parsimony Phylogenetic Analysis of Omics Data.

    PubMed

    Salazar, Jose; Amri, Hakima; Noursi, David; Abu-Asab, Mones

    2015-08-01

    High-throughput assays from genomics, proteomics, metabolomics, and next generation sequencing produce massive omics datasets that are challenging to analyze in biological or clinical contexts. Thus far, there is no publicly available program for converting quantitative omics data into input formats to be used in off-the-shelf robust phylogenetic programs. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report on creation of two Windows-based programs, OmicsTract and SynpExtractor, to address this gap. We note, as a way of introduction and development of these programs, that one particularly useful bioinformatics inferential modeling is the phylogenetic cladogram. Cladograms are multidimensional tools that show the relatedness between subgroups of healthy and diseased individuals and the latter's shared aberrations; they also reveal some characteristics of a disease that would not otherwise be apparent by other analytical methods. The OmicsTract and SynpExtractor were written for the respective tasks of (1) accommodating advanced phylogenetic parsimony analysis (through standard programs of MIX [from PHYLIP] and TNT), and (2) extracting shared aberrations at the cladogram nodes. OmicsTract converts comma-delimited data tables through assigning each data point into a binary value ("0" for normal states and "1" for abnormal states) then outputs the converted data tables into the proper input file formats for MIX or with embedded commands for TNT. SynapExtractor uses outfiles from MIX and TNT to extract the shared aberrations of each node of the cladogram, matching them with identifying labels from the dataset and exporting them into a comma-delimited file. Labels may be gene identifiers in gene-expression datasets or m/z values in mass spectrometry datasets. By automating these steps, OmicsTract and SynpExtractor offer a veritable opportunity for rapid and standardized phylogenetic analyses of omics data; their model can also be extended to next generation sequencing

  2. A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach to Regional Frequency Analysis of Extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Renard, B.

    2010-12-01

    Rainfall and runoff frequency analysis is a major issue for the hydrological community. The distribution of hydrological extremes varies in space and possibly in time. Describing and understanding this spatiotemporal variability are primary challenges to improve hazard quantification and risk assessment. This presentation proposes a general approach based on a Bayesian hierarchical model, following previous work by Cooley et al. [2007], Micevski [2007], Aryal et al. [2009] or Lima and Lall [2009; 2010]. Such a hierarchical model is made up of two levels: (1) a data level modeling the distribution of observations, and (2) a process level describing the fluctuation of the distribution parameters in space and possibly in time. At the first level of the model, at-site data (e.g., annual maxima series) are modeled with a chosen distribution (e.g., a GEV distribution). Since data from several sites are considered, the joint distribution of a vector of (spatial) observations needs to be derived. This is challenging because data are in general not spatially independent, especially for nearby sites. An elliptical copula is therefore used to formally account for spatial dependence between at-site data. This choice might be questionable in the context of extreme value distributions. However, it is motivated by its applicability in spatial highly dimensional problems, where the joint pdf of a vector of n observations is required to derive the likelihood function (with n possibly amounting to hundreds of sites). At the second level of the model, parameters of the chosen at-site distribution are then modeled by a Gaussian spatial process, whose mean may depend on covariates (e.g. elevation, distance to sea, weather pattern, time). In particular, this spatial process allows estimating parameters at ungauged sites, and deriving the predictive distribution of rainfall/runoff at every pixel/catchment of the studied domain. An application to extreme rainfall series from the French

  3. Phylogenetic analysis reveals the surprising diversity of an oxygenase class.

    PubMed

    Capyk, Jenna K; Eltis, Lindsay D

    2012-03-01

    As metalloenzymes capable of transforming a broad range of substrates with high stereo- and regio-specificity, the multicomponent Rieske oxygenases (ROs) have been studied in bacterial systems for applications in bioremediation and industrial biocatalysis. These studies include genetic and biochemical investigations, determination of enzyme structure, phylogenetic analysis, and enzyme classification. Although RO terminal oxygenase components (RO-Os) share a conserved domain structure, their sequences are highly divergent and present significant challenges for identification and classification. Herein, we present the first global phylogenetic analysis of a broad range of RO-Os from diverse taxonomic groups. We employed objective, structure-based criteria to significantly reduce the inclusion of erroneously aligned sequences in the analysis. Our findings reveal that RO biochemical studies to date have been largely concentrated in an unexpectedly narrow portion of the RO-O sequence landscape. Additionally, our analysis demonstrates the existence two distinct groups of RO-O sequences. Finally, the sequence diversity recognized in this study necessitates a new RO-O classification scheme. We therefore propose a P450-like naming system. Our results reveal a diversity of sequence and potential catalytic functionality that has been wholly unappreciated in the RO literature. This study also demonstrates that many commonly used bioinformatic tools may not be sufficient to analyze the vast amount of data available in current databases. These findings facilitate the expanded exploration of RO catalytic capabilities in both biological and technological contexts and increase the potential for practical exploitation of their activities.

  4. A phylogenetic analysis of macroevolutionary patterns in fermentative yeasts.

    PubMed

    Paleo-López, Rocío; Quintero-Galvis, Julian F; Solano-Iguaran, Jaiber J; Sanchez-Salazar, Angela M; Gaitan-Espitia, Juan D; Nespolo, Roberto F

    2016-06-01

    When novel sources of ecological opportunity are available, physiological innovations can trigger adaptive radiations. This could be the case of yeasts (Saccharomycotina), in which an evolutionary novelty is represented by the capacity to exploit simple sugars from fruits (fermentation). During adaptive radiations, diversification and morphological evolution are predicted to slow-down after early bursts of diversification. Here, we performed the first comparative phylogenetic analysis in yeasts, testing the "early burst" prediction on species diversification and also on traits of putative ecological relevance (cell-size and fermentation versatility). We found that speciation rates are constant during the time-range we considered (ca., 150 millions of years). Phylogenetic signal of both traits was significant (but lower for cell-size), suggesting that lineages resemble each other in trait-values. Disparity analysis suggested accelerated evolution (diversification in trait values above Brownian Motion expectations) in cell-size. We also found a significant phylogenetic regression between cell-size and fermentation versatility (R (2) = 0.10), which suggests correlated evolution between both traits. Overall, our results do not support the early burst prediction both in species and traits, but suggest a number of interesting evolutionary patterns, that warrant further exploration. For instance, we show that the Whole Genomic Duplication that affected a whole clade of yeasts, does not seems to have a statistically detectable phenotypic effect at our level of analysis. In this regard, further studies of fermentation under common-garden conditions combined with comparative analyses are warranted. PMID:27516851

  5. Phylogenetic Analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 2 Group B

    PubMed Central

    Cella, Eleonora; Lo Presti, Alessandra; Giovanetti, Marta; Veo, Carla; Lai, Alessia; Dicuonzo, Giordano; Angeletti, Silvia; Ciotti, Marco; Zehender, Gianguglielmo; Ciccozzi, Massimo

    2016-01-01

    Context: Human immunodeficiency virus type 2 (HIV-2) infections are mainly restricted to West Africa; however, in the recent years, the prevalence of HIV-2 is a growing concern in some European countries and the Southwestern region of India. Despite the presence of different HIV-2 groups, only A and B Groups have established human-to-human transmission chains. Aims: This work aimed to evaluate the phylogeographic inference of HIV-2 Group B worldwide to estimate their data of origin and the population dynamics. Materials and Methods: The evolutionary rates, the demographic history for HIV-2 Group B dataset, and the phylogeographic analysis were estimated using a Bayesian approach. The viral gene flow analysis was used to count viral gene out/in flow among different locations. Results: The root of the Bayesian maximum clade credibility tree of HIV-2 Group B dated back to 1957. The demographic history of HIV-2 Group B showed that the epidemic remained constant up to 1970 when started an exponential growth. From 1985 to early 2000s, the epidemic reached a plateau, and then it was characterized by two bottlenecks and a new plateau at the end of 2000s. Phylogeographic reconstruction showed that the most probable location for the root of the tree was Ghana. Regarding the viral gene flow of HIV-2 Group B, the only observed viral gene flow was from Africa to France, Belgium, and Luxembourg. Conclusions: The study gives insights into the origin, history, and phylogeography of HIV-2 Group B epidemic. The growing number of infections of HIV-2 worldwide indicates the need for strengthening surveillance. PMID:27621561

  6. Phylogenetic Analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 2 Group B

    PubMed Central

    Cella, Eleonora; Lo Presti, Alessandra; Giovanetti, Marta; Veo, Carla; Lai, Alessia; Dicuonzo, Giordano; Angeletti, Silvia; Ciotti, Marco; Zehender, Gianguglielmo; Ciccozzi, Massimo

    2016-01-01

    Context: Human immunodeficiency virus type 2 (HIV-2) infections are mainly restricted to West Africa; however, in the recent years, the prevalence of HIV-2 is a growing concern in some European countries and the Southwestern region of India. Despite the presence of different HIV-2 groups, only A and B Groups have established human-to-human transmission chains. Aims: This work aimed to evaluate the phylogeographic inference of HIV-2 Group B worldwide to estimate their data of origin and the population dynamics. Materials and Methods: The evolutionary rates, the demographic history for HIV-2 Group B dataset, and the phylogeographic analysis were estimated using a Bayesian approach. The viral gene flow analysis was used to count viral gene out/in flow among different locations. Results: The root of the Bayesian maximum clade credibility tree of HIV-2 Group B dated back to 1957. The demographic history of HIV-2 Group B showed that the epidemic remained constant up to 1970 when started an exponential growth. From 1985 to early 2000s, the epidemic reached a plateau, and then it was characterized by two bottlenecks and a new plateau at the end of 2000s. Phylogeographic reconstruction showed that the most probable location for the root of the tree was Ghana. Regarding the viral gene flow of HIV-2 Group B, the only observed viral gene flow was from Africa to France, Belgium, and Luxembourg. Conclusions: The study gives insights into the origin, history, and phylogeography of HIV-2 Group B epidemic. The growing number of infections of HIV-2 worldwide indicates the need for strengthening surveillance.

  7. A computational analysis of the neural bases of Bayesian inference.

    PubMed

    Kolossa, Antonio; Kopp, Bruno; Fingscheidt, Tim

    2015-02-01

    Empirical support for the Bayesian brain hypothesis, although of major theoretical importance for cognitive neuroscience, is surprisingly scarce. This hypothesis posits simply that neural activities code and compute Bayesian probabilities. Here, we introduce an urn-ball paradigm to relate event-related potentials (ERPs) such as the P300 wave to Bayesian inference. Bayesian model comparison is conducted to compare various models in terms of their ability to explain trial-by-trial variation in ERP responses at different points in time and over different regions of the scalp. Specifically, we are interested in dissociating specific ERP responses in terms of Bayesian updating and predictive surprise. Bayesian updating refers to changes in probability distributions given new observations, while predictive surprise equals the surprise about observations under current probability distributions. Components of the late positive complex (P3a, P3b, Slow Wave) provide dissociable measures of Bayesian updating and predictive surprise. Specifically, the updating of beliefs about hidden states yields the best fit for the anteriorly distributed P3a, whereas the updating of predictions of observations accounts best for the posteriorly distributed Slow Wave. In addition, parietally distributed P3b responses are best fit by predictive surprise. These results indicate that the three components of the late positive complex reflect distinct neural computations. As such they are consistent with the Bayesian brain hypothesis, but these neural computations seem to be subject to nonlinear probability weighting. We integrate these findings with the free-energy principle that instantiates the Bayesian brain hypothesis.

  8. Penicillium simile sp. nov. revealed by morphological and phylogenetic analysis.

    PubMed

    Davolos, Domenico; Pietrangeli, Biancamaria; Persiani, Anna Maria; Maggi, Oriana

    2012-02-01

    The morphology of three phenetically identical Penicillium isolates, collected from the bioaerosol in a restoration laboratory in Italy, displayed macro- and microscopic characteristics that were similar though not completely ascribable to Penicillium raistrickii. For this reason, a phylogenetic approach based on DNA sequencing analysis was performed to establish both the taxonomic status and the evolutionary relationships of these three peculiar isolates in relation to previously described species of the genus Penicillium. We used four nuclear loci (both rRNA and protein coding genes) that have previously proved useful for the molecular investigation of taxa belonging to the genus Penicillium at various evolutionary levels. The internal transcribed spacer region (ITS1-5.8S-ITS2), domains D1 and D2 of the 28S rDNA, a region of the tubulin beta chain gene (benA) and part of the calmodulin gene (cmd) were amplified by PCR and sequenced. Analysis of the rRNA genes and of the benA and cmd sequence data indicates the presence of three isogenic isolates belonging to a genetically distinct species of the genus Penicillium, here described and named Penicillium simile sp. nov. (ATCC MYA-4591(T)  = CBS 129191(T)). This novel species is phylogenetically different from P. raistrickii and other related species of the genus Penicillium (e.g. Penicillium scabrosum), from which it can be distinguished on the basis of morphological trait analysis.

  9. Penicillium simile sp. nov. revealed by morphological and phylogenetic analysis.

    PubMed

    Davolos, Domenico; Pietrangeli, Biancamaria; Persiani, Anna Maria; Maggi, Oriana

    2012-02-01

    The morphology of three phenetically identical Penicillium isolates, collected from the bioaerosol in a restoration laboratory in Italy, displayed macro- and microscopic characteristics that were similar though not completely ascribable to Penicillium raistrickii. For this reason, a phylogenetic approach based on DNA sequencing analysis was performed to establish both the taxonomic status and the evolutionary relationships of these three peculiar isolates in relation to previously described species of the genus Penicillium. We used four nuclear loci (both rRNA and protein coding genes) that have previously proved useful for the molecular investigation of taxa belonging to the genus Penicillium at various evolutionary levels. The internal transcribed spacer region (ITS1-5.8S-ITS2), domains D1 and D2 of the 28S rDNA, a region of the tubulin beta chain gene (benA) and part of the calmodulin gene (cmd) were amplified by PCR and sequenced. Analysis of the rRNA genes and of the benA and cmd sequence data indicates the presence of three isogenic isolates belonging to a genetically distinct species of the genus Penicillium, here described and named Penicillium simile sp. nov. (ATCC MYA-4591(T)  = CBS 129191(T)). This novel species is phylogenetically different from P. raistrickii and other related species of the genus Penicillium (e.g. Penicillium scabrosum), from which it can be distinguished on the basis of morphological trait analysis. PMID:21460135

  10. BASE-9: Bayesian Analysis for Stellar Evolution with nine variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robinson, Elliot; von Hippel, Ted; Stein, Nathan; Stenning, David; Wagner-Kaiser, Rachel; Si, Shijing; van Dyk, David

    2016-08-01

    The BASE-9 (Bayesian Analysis for Stellar Evolution with nine variables) software suite recovers star cluster and stellar parameters from photometry and is useful for analyzing single-age, single-metallicity star clusters, binaries, or single stars, and for simulating such systems. BASE-9 uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique along with brute force numerical integration to estimate the posterior probability distribution for the age, metallicity, helium abundance, distance modulus, line-of-sight absorption, and parameters of the initial-final mass relation (IFMR) for a cluster, and for the primary mass, secondary mass (if a binary), and cluster probability for every potential cluster member. The MCMC technique is used for the cluster quantities (the first six items listed above) and numerical integration is used for the stellar quantities (the last three items in the above list).

  11. Bayesian analysis of factors associated with fibromyalgia syndrome subjects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jayawardana, Veroni; Mondal, Sumona; Russek, Leslie

    2015-01-01

    Factors contributing to movement-related fear were assessed by Russek, et al. 2014 for subjects with Fibromyalgia (FM) based on the collected data by a national internet survey of community-based individuals. The study focused on the variables, Activities-Specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC), Primary Care Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder screen (PC-PTSD), Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia (TSK), a Joint Hypermobility Syndrome screen (JHS), Vertigo Symptom Scale (VSS-SF), Obsessive-Compulsive Personality Disorder (OCPD), Pain, work status and physical activity dependent from the "Revised Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire" (FIQR). The study presented in this paper revisits same data with a Bayesian analysis where appropriate priors were introduced for variables selected in the Russek's paper.

  12. Testing Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium: an objective Bayesian analysis.

    PubMed

    Consonni, Guido; Moreno, Elías; Venturini, Sergio

    2011-01-15

    We analyze the general (multiallelic) Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium problem from an objective Bayesian testing standpoint. We argue that for small or moderate sample sizes the answer is rather sensitive to the prior chosen, and this suggests to carry out a sensitivity analysis with respect to the prior. This goal is achieved through the identification of a class of priors specifically designed for this testing problem. In this paper, we consider the class of intrinsic priors under the full model, indexed by a tuning quantity, the training sample size. These priors are objective, satisfy Savage's continuity condition and have proved to behave extremely well for many statistical testing problems. We compute the posterior probability of the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium model for the class of intrinsic priors, assess robustness over the range of plausible answers, as well as stability of the decision in favor of either hypothesis.

  13. Bayesian Library for the Analysis of Neutron Diffraction Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ratcliff, William; Lesniewski, Joseph; Quintana, Dylan

    During this talk, I will introduce the Bayesian Library for the Analysis of Neutron Diffraction Data. In this library we use of the DREAM algorithm to effectively sample parameter space. This offers several advantages over traditional least squares fitting approaches. It gives us more robust estimates of the fitting parameters, their errors, and their correlations. It also is more stable than least squares methods and provides more confidence in finding a global minimum. I will discuss the algorithm and its application to several materials. I will show applications to both structural and magnetic diffraction patterns. I will present examples of fitting both powder and single crystal data. We would like to acknowledge support from the Department of Commerce and the NSF.

  14. Phylogenetic analysis of the bacterial communities in marine sediments.

    PubMed Central

    Gray, J P; Herwig, R P

    1996-01-01

    For the phylogenetic analysis of microbial communities present in environmental samples microbial DNA can be extracted from the sample, 16S rDNA can be amplified with suitable primers and the PCR, and clonal libraries can be constructed. We report a protocol that can be used for efficient cell lysis and recovery of DNA from marine sediments. Key steps in this procedure include the use of a bead mill homogenizer for matrix disruption and uniform cell lysis and then purification of the released DNA by agarose gel electrophoresis. For sediments collected from two sites in Puget Sound, over 96% of the cells present were lysed. Our method yields high-molecular-weight DNA that is suitable for molecular studies, including amplification of 16S rRNA genes. The DNA yield was 47 micrograms per g (dry weight) for sediments collected from creosote-contaminated Eagle Harbor, Wash. Primers were selected for the PCR amplification of (eu)bacterial 16S rDNA that contained linkers with unique 8-base restriction sites for directional cloning. Examination of 22 16S rDNA clones showed that the surficial sediments in Eagle Harbor contained a phylogenetically diverse population of organisms from the Bacteria domain (G. J. Olsen, C. R. Woese, and R. Overbeek, J. Bacteriol. 176:1-6, 1994) with members of six major lineages represented: alpha, delta, and gamma Proteobacteria; the gram-positive high G+C content subdivision; clostridia and related organisms; and planctomyces and related organisms. None of the clones were identical to any representatives in the Ribosomal Database Project small subunit RNA database. The analysis of clonal representives in the first report using molecular techniques to determine the phylogenetic composition of the (eu)bacterial community present in coastal marine sediments. PMID:8899989

  15. A Bayesian Seismic Hazard Analysis for the city of Naples

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faenza, Licia; Pierdominici, Simona; Hainzl, Sebastian; Cinti, Francesca R.; Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Perfetti, Paolo

    2016-04-01

    In the last years many studies have been focused on determination and definition of the seismic, volcanic and tsunamogenic hazard in the city of Naples. The reason is that the town of Naples with its neighboring area is one of the most densely populated places in Italy. In addition, the risk is increased also by the type and condition of buildings and monuments in the city. It is crucial therefore to assess which active faults in Naples and surrounding area could trigger an earthquake able to shake and damage the urban area. We collect data from the most reliable and complete databases of macroseismic intensity records (from 79 AD to present). For each seismic event an active tectonic structure has been associated. Furthermore a set of active faults, well-known from geological investigations, located around the study area that they could shake the city, not associated with any earthquake, has been taken into account for our studies. This geological framework is the starting point for our Bayesian seismic hazard analysis for the city of Naples. We show the feasibility of formulating the hazard assessment procedure to include the information of past earthquakes into the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. This strategy allows on one hand to enlarge the information used in the evaluation of the hazard, from alternative models for the earthquake generation process to past shaking and on the other hand to explicitly account for all kinds of information and their uncertainties. The Bayesian scheme we propose is applied to evaluate the seismic hazard of Naples. We implement five different spatio-temporal models to parameterize the occurrence of earthquakes potentially dangerous for Naples. Subsequently we combine these hazard curves with ShakeMap of past earthquakes that have been felt in Naples. The results are posterior hazard assessment for three exposure times, e.g., 50, 10 and 5 years, in a dense grid that cover the municipality of Naples, considering bedrock soil

  16. An Exploratory Study Examining the Feasibility of Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Circuit Analysis Understanding

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chung, Gregory K. W. K.; Dionne, Gary B.; Kaiser, William J.

    2006-01-01

    Our research question was whether we could develop a feasible technique, using Bayesian networks, to diagnose gaps in student knowledge. Thirty-four college-age participants completed tasks designed to measure conceptual knowledge, procedural knowledge, and problem-solving skills related to circuit analysis. A Bayesian network was used to model…

  17. Phylogenetic analysis of the formin homology 2 domain.

    PubMed

    Higgs, Henry N; Peterson, Kevin J

    2005-01-01

    Formin proteins are key regulators of eukaryotic actin filament assembly and elongation, and many species possess multiple formin isoforms. A nomenclature system based on fundamental features would be desirable, to aid the rapid identification and characterization of novel formins. In this article, we attempt to systematize the formin family by performing phylogenetic analyses of the formin homology 2 (FH2) domain, an independently folding region common to all formins, which alone can influence actin dynamics. Through database searches, we identify 101 FH2 domains from 26 eukaryotic species, including 15 in mice. Sequence alignments reveal a highly conserved yeast-specific insert in the "knob loop" region of the FH2 domain, with unknown functional consequences. Phylogenetic analysis using minimum evolution (ME), maximum parsimony (MP), and maximum likelihood (ML) algorithms strongly supports the existence of seven metazoan groups. Yeast FH2 domains segregate from all other eukaryotes, including metazoans, other fungi, plants, and protists. Sequence comparisons of non-FH2 regions support relationships between three metazoan groups (Dia, DAAM, and FRL) and examine previously identified coiled-coil and Diaphanous auto-regulatory domain sequences. This analysis allows for a formin nomenclature system based on sequence relationships, as well as suggesting strategies for the determination of biochemical and cellular activities of these proteins.

  18. The Phylogeographic History of the New World Screwworm Fly, Inferred by Approximate Bayesian Computation Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Azeredo-Espin, Ana Maria L.

    2013-01-01

    Insect pest phylogeography might be shaped both by biogeographic events and by human influence. Here, we conducted an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) analysis to investigate the phylogeography of the New World screwworm fly, Cochliomyia hominivorax, with the aim of understanding its population history and its order and time of divergence. Our ABC analysis supports that populations spread from North to South in the Americas, in at least two different moments. The first split occurred between the North/Central American and South American populations in the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (15,300-19,000 YBP). The second split occurred between the North and South Amazonian populations in the transition between the Pleistocene and the Holocene eras (9,100-11,000 YBP). The species also experienced population expansion. Phylogenetic analysis likewise suggests this north to south colonization and Maxent models suggest an increase in the number of suitable areas in South America from the past to present. We found that the phylogeographic patterns observed in C. hominivorax cannot be explained only by climatic oscillations and can be connected to host population histories. Interestingly we found these patterns are very coincident with general patterns of ancient human movements in the Americas, suggesting that humans might have played a crucial role in shaping the distribution and population structure of this insect pest. This work presents the first hypothesis test regarding the processes that shaped the current phylogeographic structure of C. hominivorax and represents an alternate perspective on investigating the problem of insect pests. PMID:24098436

  19. A Bayesian Analysis of Finite Mixtures in the LISREL Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhu, Hong-Tu; Lee, Sik-Yum

    2001-01-01

    Proposes a Bayesian framework for estimating finite mixtures of the LISREL model. The model augments the observed data of the manifest variables with the latent variables and allocation variables and uses the Gibbs sampler to obtain the Bayesian solution. Discusses other associated statistical inferences. (SLD)

  20. RECONSTRUCTING EXPOSURE SCENARIOS USING DOSE BIOMARKERS - AN APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We use Bayesian uncertainty analysis to explore how to estimate pollutant exposures from biomarker concentrations. The growing number of national databases with exposure data makes such an analysis possible. They contain datasets of pharmacokinetic biomarkers for many polluta...

  1. Complete mitochondrial genome sequence of Marmota himalayana (Rodentia: Sciuridae) and phylogenetic analysis within Rodentia.

    PubMed

    Chao, Q J; Li, Y D; Geng, X X; Zhang, L; Dai, X; Zhang, X; Li, J; Zhang, H J

    2014-04-14

    This is the first report of a complete mitochondrial genome sequence from Himalayan marmot (Marmota himalayana, class Marmota). We determined the M. himalayana mitochondrial (mt) genome sequence by using long-PCR methods and a primer-walking sequencing strategy with genus-specific primers. The complete mt genome of M. himalayana was 16,443 bp in length and comprised 13 protein-coding genes, 2 ribosomal RNA (rRNA) genes, 22 transfer RNA (tRNA) genes, and a typical control region (CR). Gene order and orientation were identical to those in mt genomes of most vertebrates. The heavy strand showed an overall A+T content of 63.49%. AT and GC skews for the mt genome of the M. himalayana were 0.012 and -0.300, respectively, indicating a nucleotide bias against T and G. The control region was 997 bp in size and displayed some unusual features, including absence of repeated motifs and two conserved sequence blocks (CSB2 and CSB3), which is consistent with observations from two other rodent species, Sciurus vulgaris and Myoxus glis. Phylogenetic analysis of complete mt DNA sequences without the control region including 30 taxa of Rodentia was performed with Maximum-Likelihood (ML) and Bayesian Inference (BI) methods and provided strong support for Sciurognathi polyphyly and Hystricognathi monophyly. This analysis also provided evidence that M. himalayana mt DNA was closely related to that from Sciurus vulgaris (Sciuridae) and was similar to mt DNA from Myoxus glis.

  2. [Genome-wide identification, phylogenetic analysis and expression profiling of the WOX family genes in Solanum lycopersicum].

    PubMed

    Li, Xiaoxu; Liu, Cheng; Li, Wei; Zhang, Zenglin; Gao, Xiaoming; Zhou, Hui; Guo, Yongfeng

    2016-05-01

    Members of the plant-specific WOX transcription factor family have been reported to play important roles in cell to cell communication as well as other physiological and developmental processes. In this study, ten members of the WOX transcription factor family were identified in Solanum lycopersicum with HMMER. Neighbor-joining phylogenetic tree, maximum-likelihood tree and Bayesian-inference tree were constructed and similar topologies were shown using the protein sequences of the homeodomain. Phylogenetic study revealed that the 25 WOX family members from Arabidopsis and tomato fall into three clades and nine subfamilies. The patterns of exon-intron structures and organization of conserved domains in Arabidopsis and tomato were consistent based on the phylogenetic results. Transcriptome analysis showed that the expression patterns of SlWOXs were different in different tissue types. Gene Ontology (GO) analysis suggested that, as transcription factors, the SlWOX family members could be involved in a number of biological processes including cell to cell communication and tissue development. Our results are useful for future studies on WOX family members in tomato and other plant species. PMID:27232493

  3. Can computational biology improve the phylogenetic analysis of insulin?

    PubMed

    Chakraborty, Chiranjib; Roy, Sanjiban S; Hsu, Minna J; Agoramoorthy, Govindasamy

    2012-11-01

    Using computational biology, we have depicted the insulin phylogenetics. We have also analyzed the sequence alignment and sequence logos formation for both the insulin chain A and B for three groups namely, the mammalian group, vertebrates group and fish group. We have also analyzed cladograms of insulin for the mammalian group. In accordance with that path lengths, matrix for distance analysis, matching representation of nodes of the cladogram and dissimilarity between two nodes have been performed for both of the A and B chains of the mammalian group. Our results show that 12 amino acid residues (GlyA1, IleA2, ValA3, TyrA19, CysA20, AsnA21, LeuB6, GlyB8, LeuB11, ValB12, GlyB23 and PheB24) are highly conserved for all groups and among them some (GlyA1, IleA2, ValA3);(TyrA19, CysA20, AsnA21) are continuous. This study shows a rapid method to calculate the amino acid sequences in terms of evolutionary conservation rates as well as molecular phylogenetics. PMID:22265574

  4. Phylogenetic analysis of the Argonaute protein family in platyhelminths.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Yadong

    2013-03-01

    Argonaute proteins (AGOs) are mediators of gene silencing via recruitment of small regulatory RNAs to induce translational regression or degradation of targeted molecules. Platyhelminths have been reported to express microRNAs but the diversity of AGOs in the phylum has not been explored. Phylogenetic relationships of members of this protein family were studied using data from six platyhelminth genomes. Phylogenetic analysis showed that all cestode and trematode AGOs, along with some triclad planarian AGOs, were grouped into the Ago subfamily and its novel sister clade, here referred to as Cluster 1. These were very distant from Piwi and Class 3 subfamilies. By contrast, a number of planarian Piwi-like AGOs formed a novel sister clade to the Piwi subfamily. Extensive sequence searching revealed the presence of an additional locus for AGO2 in the cestode Echinococcus granulosus and exon expansion in this species and E. multilocularis. The current study suggests the absence of the Piwi subfamily and Class 3 AGOs in cestodes and trematodes and the Piwi-like AGO expansion in a free-living triclad planarian and the occurrence of exon expansion prior to or during the evolution of the most-recent common ancestor of the Echinococcus species studied.

  5. The Origins and Maintenance of Female Genital Modification across Africa : Bayesian Phylogenetic Modeling of Cultural Evolution under the Influence of Selection.

    PubMed

    Ross, Cody T; Strimling, Pontus; Ericksen, Karen Paige; Lindenfors, Patrik; Mulder, Monique Borgerhoff

    2016-06-01

    We present formal evolutionary models for the origins and persistence of the practice of Female Genital Modification (FGMo). We then test the implications of these models using normative cross-cultural data on FGMo in Africa and Bayesian phylogenetic methods that explicitly model adaptive evolution. Empirical evidence provides some support for the findings of our evolutionary models that the de novo origins of the FGMo practice should be associated with social stratification, and that social stratification should place selective pressures on the adoption of FGMo; these results, however, are tempered by the finding that FGMo has arisen in many cultures that have no social stratification, and that forces operating orthogonally to stratification appear to play a more important role in the cross-cultural distribution of FGMo. To explain these cases, one must consider cultural evolutionary explanations in conjunction with behavioral ecological ones. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our study for policies designed to end the practice of FGMo. PMID:26846688

  6. BEAST 2: a software platform for Bayesian evolutionary analysis.

    PubMed

    Bouckaert, Remco; Heled, Joseph; Kühnert, Denise; Vaughan, Tim; Wu, Chieh-Hsi; Xie, Dong; Suchard, Marc A; Rambaut, Andrew; Drummond, Alexei J

    2014-04-01

    We present a new open source, extensible and flexible software platform for Bayesian evolutionary analysis called BEAST 2. This software platform is a re-design of the popular BEAST 1 platform to correct structural deficiencies that became evident as the BEAST 1 software evolved. Key among those deficiencies was the lack of post-deployment extensibility. BEAST 2 now has a fully developed package management system that allows third party developers to write additional functionality that can be directly installed to the BEAST 2 analysis platform via a package manager without requiring a new software release of the platform. This package architecture is showcased with a number of recently published new models encompassing birth-death-sampling tree priors, phylodynamics and model averaging for substitution models and site partitioning. A second major improvement is the ability to read/write the entire state of the MCMC chain to/from disk allowing it to be easily shared between multiple instances of the BEAST software. This facilitates checkpointing and better support for multi-processor and high-end computing extensions. Finally, the functionality in new packages can be easily added to the user interface (BEAUti 2) by a simple XML template-based mechanism because BEAST 2 has been re-designed to provide greater integration between the analysis engine and the user interface so that, for example BEAST and BEAUti use exactly the same XML file format. PMID:24722319

  7. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  8. Phylogenetic analysis of modularity in protein interaction networks

    PubMed Central

    Erten, Sinan; Li, Xin; Bebek, Gurkan; Li, Jing; Koyutürk, Mehmet

    2009-01-01

    Background In systems biology, comparative analyses of molecular interactions across diverse species indicate that conservation and divergence of networks can be used to understand functional evolution from a systems perspective. A key characteristic of these networks is their modularity, which contributes significantly to their robustness, as well as adaptability. Consequently, analysis of modular network structures from a phylogenetic perspective may be useful in understanding the emergence, conservation, and diversification of functional modularity. Results In this paper, we propose a phylogenetic framework for analyzing network modules, with applications that extend well beyond network-based phylogeny reconstruction. Our approach is based on identification of modular network components from each network separately, followed by projection of these modules onto the networks of other species to compare different networks. Subsequently, we use the conservation of various modules in each network to assess the similarity between different networks. Compared to traditional methods that rely on topological comparisons, our approach has key advantages in (i) avoiding intractable graph comparison problems in comparative network analysis, (ii) accounting for noise and missing data through flexible treatment of network conservation, and (iii) providing insights on the evolution of biological systems through investigation of the evolutionary trajectories of network modules. We test our method, MOPHY, on synthetic data generated by simulation of network evolution, as well as existing protein-protein interaction data for seven diverse species. Comprehensive experimental results show that MOPHY is promising in reconstructing evolutionary histories of extant networks based on conservation of modularity, it is highly robust to noise, and outperforms existing methods that quantify network similarity in terms of conservation of network topology. Conclusion These results establish

  9. Bayesian methods for design and analysis of safety trials.

    PubMed

    Price, Karen L; Xia, H Amy; Lakshminarayanan, Mani; Madigan, David; Manner, David; Scott, John; Stamey, James D; Thompson, Laura

    2014-01-01

    Safety assessment is essential throughout medical product development. There has been increased awareness of the importance of safety trials recently, in part due to recent US Food and Drug Administration guidance related to thorough assessment of cardiovascular risk in the treatment of type 2 diabetes. Bayesian methods provide great promise for improving the conduct of safety trials. In this paper, the safety subteam of the Drug Information Association Bayesian Scientific Working Group evaluates challenges associated with current methods for designing and analyzing safety trials and provides an overview of several suggested Bayesian opportunities that may increase efficiency of safety trials along with relevant case examples.

  10. New phiomorph rodents from the latest Eocene of Egypt, and the impact of Bayesian "clock"-based phylogenetic methods on estimates of basal hystricognath relationships and biochronology.

    PubMed

    Sallam, Hesham M; Seiffert, Erik R

    2016-01-01

    The Fayum Depression of Egypt has yielded fossils of hystricognathous rodents from multiple Eocene and Oligocene horizons that range in age from ∼37 to ∼30 Ma and document several phases in the early evolution of crown Hystricognathi and one of its major subclades, Phiomorpha. Here we describe two new genera and species of basal phiomorphs, Birkamys korai and Mubhammys vadumensis, based on rostra and maxillary and mandibular remains from the terminal Eocene (∼34 Ma) Fayum Locality 41 (L-41). Birkamys is the smallest known Paleogene hystricognath, has very simple molars, and, like derived Oligocene-to-Recent phiomorphs (but unlike contemporaneous and older taxa) apparently retained dP(4)∕4 late into life, with no evidence for P(4)∕4 eruption or formation. Mubhammys is very similar in dental morphology to Birkamys, and also shows no evidence for P(4)∕4 formation or eruption, but is considerably larger. Though parsimony analysis with all characters equally weighted places Birkamys and Mubhammys as sister taxa of extant Thryonomys to the exclusion of much younger relatives of that genus, all other methods (standard Bayesian inference, Bayesian "tip-dating," and parsimony analysis with scaled transitions between "fixed" and polymorphic states) place these species in more basal positions within Hystricognathi, as sister taxa of Oligocene-to-Recent phiomorphs. We also employ tip-dating as a means for estimating the ages of early hystricognath-bearing localities, many of which are not well-constrained by geological, geochronological, or biostratigraphic evidence. By simultaneously taking into account phylogeny, evolutionary rates, and uniform priors that appropriately encompass the range of possible ages for fossil localities, dating of tips in this Bayesian framework allows paleontologists to move beyond vague and assumption-laden "stage of evolution" arguments in biochronology to provide relatively rigorous age assessments of poorly-constrained faunas. This

  11. New phiomorph rodents from the latest Eocene of Egypt, and the impact of Bayesian "clock"-based phylogenetic methods on estimates of basal hystricognath relationships and biochronology.

    PubMed

    Sallam, Hesham M; Seiffert, Erik R

    2016-01-01

    The Fayum Depression of Egypt has yielded fossils of hystricognathous rodents from multiple Eocene and Oligocene horizons that range in age from ∼37 to ∼30 Ma and document several phases in the early evolution of crown Hystricognathi and one of its major subclades, Phiomorpha. Here we describe two new genera and species of basal phiomorphs, Birkamys korai and Mubhammys vadumensis, based on rostra and maxillary and mandibular remains from the terminal Eocene (∼34 Ma) Fayum Locality 41 (L-41). Birkamys is the smallest known Paleogene hystricognath, has very simple molars, and, like derived Oligocene-to-Recent phiomorphs (but unlike contemporaneous and older taxa) apparently retained dP(4)∕4 late into life, with no evidence for P(4)∕4 eruption or formation. Mubhammys is very similar in dental morphology to Birkamys, and also shows no evidence for P(4)∕4 formation or eruption, but is considerably larger. Though parsimony analysis with all characters equally weighted places Birkamys and Mubhammys as sister taxa of extant Thryonomys to the exclusion of much younger relatives of that genus, all other methods (standard Bayesian inference, Bayesian "tip-dating," and parsimony analysis with scaled transitions between "fixed" and polymorphic states) place these species in more basal positions within Hystricognathi, as sister taxa of Oligocene-to-Recent phiomorphs. We also employ tip-dating as a means for estimating the ages of early hystricognath-bearing localities, many of which are not well-constrained by geological, geochronological, or biostratigraphic evidence. By simultaneously taking into account phylogeny, evolutionary rates, and uniform priors that appropriately encompass the range of possible ages for fossil localities, dating of tips in this Bayesian framework allows paleontologists to move beyond vague and assumption-laden "stage of evolution" arguments in biochronology to provide relatively rigorous age assessments of poorly-constrained faunas. This

  12. New phiomorph rodents from the latest Eocene of Egypt, and the impact of Bayesian “clock”-based phylogenetic methods on estimates of basal hystricognath relationships and biochronology

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The Fayum Depression of Egypt has yielded fossils of hystricognathous rodents from multiple Eocene and Oligocene horizons that range in age from ∼37 to ∼30 Ma and document several phases in the early evolution of crown Hystricognathi and one of its major subclades, Phiomorpha. Here we describe two new genera and species of basal phiomorphs, Birkamys korai and Mubhammys vadumensis, based on rostra and maxillary and mandibular remains from the terminal Eocene (∼34 Ma) Fayum Locality 41 (L-41). Birkamys is the smallest known Paleogene hystricognath, has very simple molars, and, like derived Oligocene-to-Recent phiomorphs (but unlike contemporaneous and older taxa) apparently retained dP4∕4 late into life, with no evidence for P4∕4 eruption or formation. Mubhammys is very similar in dental morphology to Birkamys, and also shows no evidence for P4∕4 formation or eruption, but is considerably larger. Though parsimony analysis with all characters equally weighted places Birkamys and Mubhammys as sister taxa of extant Thryonomys to the exclusion of much younger relatives of that genus, all other methods (standard Bayesian inference, Bayesian “tip-dating,” and parsimony analysis with scaled transitions between “fixed” and polymorphic states) place these species in more basal positions within Hystricognathi, as sister taxa of Oligocene-to-Recent phiomorphs. We also employ tip-dating as a means for estimating the ages of early hystricognath-bearing localities, many of which are not well-constrained by geological, geochronological, or biostratigraphic evidence. By simultaneously taking into account phylogeny, evolutionary rates, and uniform priors that appropriately encompass the range of possible ages for fossil localities, dating of tips in this Bayesian framework allows paleontologists to move beyond vague and assumption-laden “stage of evolution” arguments in biochronology to provide relatively rigorous age assessments of poorly-constrained faunas

  13. Investigating Cultural Evolution Using Phylogenetic Analysis: The Origins and Descent of the Southeast Asian Tradition of Warp Ikat Weaving

    PubMed Central

    Buckley, Christopher D.

    2012-01-01

    The warp ikat method of making decorated textiles is one of the most geographically widespread in southeast Asia, being used by Austronesian peoples in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, and Daic peoples on the Asian mainland. In this study a dataset consisting of the decorative characters of 36 of these warp ikat weaving traditions is investigated using Bayesian and Neighbornet techniques, and the results are used to construct a phylogenetic tree and taxonomy for warp ikat weaving in southeast Asia. The results and analysis show that these diverse traditions have a common ancestor amongst neolithic cultures the Asian mainland, and parallels exist between the patterns of textile weaving descent and linguistic phylogeny for the Austronesian group. Ancestral state analysis is used to reconstruct some of the features of the ancestral weaving tradition. The widely held theory that weaving motifs originated in the late Bronze Age Dong-Son culture is shown to be inconsistent with the data. PMID:23272211

  14. A procedure for seiche analysis with Bayesian information criterion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aichi, Masaatsu

    2016-04-01

    Seiche is a standing wave in enclosed or semi-enclosed water body. Its amplitude irregularly changes in time due to weather condition etc. Then, extracting seiche signal is not easy by usual methods for time series analysis such as fast Fourier transform (FFT). In this study, a new method for time series analysis with Bayesian information criterion was developed to decompose seiche, tide, long-term trend and residual components from time series data of tide stations. The method was developed based on the maximum marginal likelihood estimation of tide amplitudes, seiche amplitude, and trend components. Seiche amplitude and trend components were assumed that they gradually changes as second derivative in time was close to zero. These assumptions were incorporated as prior distributions. The variances of prior distributions were estimated by minimizing Akaike-Bayes information criterion (ABIC). The frequency of seiche was determined by Newton method with initial guess by FFT. The accuracy of proposed method was checked by analyzing synthetic time series data composed of known components. The reproducibility of the original components was quite well. The proposed method was also applied to the actual time series data of sea level observed by tide station and the strain of coastal rock masses observed by fiber Bragg grating sensor in Aburatsubo Bay, Japan. The seiche in bay and its response of rock masses were successfully extracted.

  15. Comparative cytogenetic analysis of some species of the Dendropsophus microcephalus group (Anura, Hylidae) in the light of phylogenetic inferences

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Dendropsophus is a monophyletic anuran genus with a diploid number of 30 chromosomes as an important synapomorphy. However, the internal phylogenetic relationships of this genus are poorly understood. Interestingly, an intriguing interspecific variation in the telocentric chromosome number has been useful in species identification. To address certain uncertainties related to one of the species groups of Dendropsophus, the D. microcephalus group, we carried out a cytogenetic analysis combined with phylogenetic inferences based on mitochondrial sequences, which aimed to aid in the analysis of chromosomal characters. Populations of Dendropsophus nanus, Dendropsophus walfordi, Dendropsophus sanborni, Dendropsophus jimi and Dendropsophus elianeae, ranging from the extreme south to the north of Brazil, were cytogenetically compared. A mitochondrial region of the ribosomal 12S gene from these populations, as well as from 30 other species of Dendropsophus, was used for the phylogenetic inferences. Phylogenetic relationships were inferred using maximum parsimony and Bayesian analyses. Results The species D. nanus and D. walfordi exhibited identical karyotypes (2n = 30; FN = 52), with four pairs of telocentric chromosomes and a NOR located on metacentric chromosome pair 13. In all of the phylogenetic hypotheses, the paraphyly of D. nanus and D. walfordi was inferred. D. sanborni from Botucatu-SP and Torres-RS showed the same karyotype as D. jimi, with 5 pairs of telocentric chromosomes (2n = 30; FN = 50) and a terminal NOR in the long arm of the telocentric chromosome pair 12. Despite their karyotypic similarity, these species were not found to compose a monophyletic group. Finally, the phylogenetic and cytogenetic analyses did not cluster the specimens of D. elianeae according to their geographical occurrence or recognized morphotypes. Conclusions We suggest that a taxonomic revision of the taxa D. nanus and D. walfordi is quite necessary. We also

  16. Bayesian analysis of a morphological supermatrix sheds light on controversial fossil hominin relationships.

    PubMed

    Dembo, Mana; Matzke, Nicholas J; Mooers, Arne Ø; Collard, Mark

    2015-08-01

    The phylogenetic relationships of several hominin species remain controversial. Two methodological issues contribute to the uncertainty-use of partial, inconsistent datasets and reliance on phylogenetic methods that are ill-suited to testing competing hypotheses. Here, we report a study designed to overcome these issues. We first compiled a supermatrix of craniodental characters for all widely accepted hominin species. We then took advantage of recently developed Bayesian methods for building trees of serially sampled tips to test among hypotheses that have been put forward in three of the most important current debates in hominin phylogenetics--the relationship between Australopithecus sediba and Homo, the taxonomic status of the Dmanisi hominins, and the place of the so-called hobbit fossils from Flores, Indonesia, in the hominin tree. Based on our results, several published hypotheses can be statistically rejected. For example, the data do not support the claim that Dmanisi hominins and all other early Homo specimens represent a single species, nor that the hobbit fossils are the remains of small-bodied modern humans, one of whom had Down syndrome. More broadly, our study provides a new baseline dataset for future work on hominin phylogeny and illustrates the promise of Bayesian approaches for understanding hominin phylogenetic relationships.

  17. Phylogenetic analysis of dissimilatory Fe(III)-reducing bacteria.

    PubMed Central

    Lonergan, D J; Jenter, H L; Coates, J D; Phillips, E J; Schmidt, T M; Lovley, D R

    1996-01-01

    Evolutionary relationships among strictly anaerobic dissimilatory Fe(III)-reducing bacteria obtained from a diversity of sedimentary environments were examined by phylogenetic analysis of 16S rRNA gene sequences. Members of the genera Geobacter, Desulfuromonas, Pelobacter, and Desulfuromusa formed a monophyletic group within the delta subdivision of the class Proteobacteria. On the basis of their common ancestry and the shared ability to reduce Fe(III) and/or S0, we propose that this group be considered a single family, Geobacteraceae. Bootstrap analysis, characteristic nucleotides, and higher-order secondary structures support the division of Geobacteraceae into two subgroups, designated the Geobacter and Desulfuromonas clusters. The genus Desulfuromusa and Pelobacter acidigallici make up a distinct branch within the Desulfuromonas cluster. Several members of the family Geobacteraceae, none of which reduce sulfate, were found to contain the target sequences of probes that have been previously used to define the distribution of sulfate-reducing bacteria and sulfate-reducing bacterium-like microorganisms. The recent isolations of Fe(III)-reducing microorganisms distributed throughout the domain Bacteria suggest that development of 16S rRNA probes that would specifically target all Fe(III) reducers may not be feasible. However, all of the evidence suggests that if a 16S rRNA sequence falls within the family Geobacteraceae, then the organism has the capacity for Fe(III) reduction. The suggestion, based on geological evidence, that Fe(III) reduction was the first globally significant process for oxidizing organic matter back to carbon dioxide is consistent with the finding that acetate-oxidizing Fe(III) reducers are phylogenetically diverse. PMID:8636045

  18. Phylogenetic and Structural Analysis of Polyketide Synthases in Aspergilli.

    PubMed

    Bhetariya, Preetida J; Prajapati, Madhvi; Bhaduri, Asani; Mandal, Rahul Shubhra; Varma, Anupam; Madan, Taruna; Singh, Yogendra; Sarma, P Usha

    2016-01-01

    Polyketide synthases (PKSs) of Aspergillus species are multidomain and multifunctional megaenzymes that play an important role in the synthesis of diverse polyketide compounds. Putative PKS protein sequences from Aspergillus species representing medically, agriculturally, and industrially important Aspergillus species were chosen and screened for in silico studies. Six candidate Aspergillus species, Aspergillus fumigatus Af293, Aspergillus flavus NRRL3357, Aspergillus niger CBS 513.88, Aspergillus terreus NIH2624, Aspergillus oryzae RIB40, and Aspergillus clavatus NRRL1, were selected to study the PKS phylogeny. Full-length PKS proteins and only ketosynthase (KS) domain sequence were retrieved for independent phylogenetic analysis from the aforementioned species, and phylogenetic analysis was performed with characterized fungal PKS. This resulted into grouping of Aspergilli PKSs into nonreducing (NR), partially reducing (PR), and highly reducing (HR) PKS enzymes. Eight distinct clades with unique domain arrangements were classified based on homology with functionally characterized PKS enzymes. Conserved motif signatures corresponding to each type of PKS were observed. Three proteins from Protein Data Bank corresponding to NR, PR, and HR type of PKS (XP_002384329.1, XP_753141.2, and XP_001402408.2, respectively) were selected for mapping of conserved motifs on three-dimensional structures of KS domain. Structural variations were found at the active sites on modeled NR, PR, and HR enzymes of Aspergillus. It was observed that the number of iteration cycles was dependent on the size of the cavity in the active site of the PKS enzyme correlating with a type with reducing or NR products, such as pigment, 6MSA, and lovastatin. The current study reports the grouping and classification of PKS proteins of Aspergilli for possible exploration of novel polyketides based on sequence homology; this information can be useful for selection of PKS for polyketide exploration and

  19. Phylogenetic and Structural Analysis of Polyketide Synthases in Aspergilli

    PubMed Central

    Bhetariya, Preetida J.; Prajapati, Madhvi; Bhaduri, Asani; Mandal, Rahul Shubhra; Varma, Anupam; Madan, Taruna; Singh, Yogendra; Sarma, P. Usha

    2016-01-01

    Polyketide synthases (PKSs) of Aspergillus species are multidomain and multifunctional megaenzymes that play an important role in the synthesis of diverse polyketide compounds. Putative PKS protein sequences from Aspergillus species representing medically, agriculturally, and industrially important Aspergillus species were chosen and screened for in silico studies. Six candidate Aspergillus species, Aspergillus fumigatus Af293, Aspergillus flavus NRRL3357, Aspergillus niger CBS 513.88, Aspergillus terreus NIH2624, Aspergillus oryzae RIB40, and Aspergillus clavatus NRRL1, were selected to study the PKS phylogeny. Full-length PKS proteins and only ketosynthase (KS) domain sequence were retrieved for independent phylogenetic analysis from the aforementioned species, and phylogenetic analysis was performed with characterized fungal PKS. This resulted into grouping of Aspergilli PKSs into nonreducing (NR), partially reducing (PR), and highly reducing (HR) PKS enzymes. Eight distinct clades with unique domain arrangements were classified based on homology with functionally characterized PKS enzymes. Conserved motif signatures corresponding to each type of PKS were observed. Three proteins from Protein Data Bank corresponding to NR, PR, and HR type of PKS (XP_002384329.1, XP_753141.2, and XP_001402408.2, respectively) were selected for mapping of conserved motifs on three-dimensional structures of KS domain. Structural variations were found at the active sites on modeled NR, PR, and HR enzymes of Aspergillus. It was observed that the number of iteration cycles was dependent on the size of the cavity in the active site of the PKS enzyme correlating with a type with reducing or NR products, such as pigment, 6MSA, and lovastatin. The current study reports the grouping and classification of PKS proteins of Aspergilli for possible exploration of novel polyketides based on sequence homology; this information can be useful for selection of PKS for polyketide exploration and

  20. Phylogenetic analysis of dissimilatory Fe(III)-reducing bacteria

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lonergan, D.J.; Jenter, H.L.; Coates, J.D.; Phillips, E.J.P.; Schmidt, T.M.; Lovley, D.R.

    1996-01-01

    Evolutionary relationships among strictly anaerobic dissimilatory Fe(III)- reducing bacteria obtained from a diversity of sedimentary environments were examined by phylogenetic analysis of 16S rRNA gene sequences. Members of the genera Geobacter, Desulfuromonas, Pelobacter, and Desulfuromusa formed a monophyletic group within the delta subdivision of the class Proteobacteria. On the basis of their common ancestry and the shared ability to reduce Fe(III) and/or S0, we propose that this group be considered a single family, Geobacteraceae. Bootstrap analysis, characteristic nucleotides, and higher- order secondary structures support the division of Geobacteraceae into two subgroups, designated the Geobacter and Desulfuromonas clusters. The genus Desulfuromusa and Pelobacter acidigallici make up a distinct branch with the Desulfuromonas cluster. Several members of the family Geobacteraceae, none of which reduce sulfate, were found to contain the target sequences of probes that have been previously used to define the distribution of sulfate-reducing bacteria and sulfate-reducing bacterium-like microorganisms. The recent isolations of Fe(III)-reducing microorganisms distributed throughout the domain Bacteria suggest that development of 16S rRNA probes that would specifically target all Fe(III) reducers may not be feasible. However, all of the evidence suggests that if a 16S rRNA sequence falls within the family Geobacteraceae, then the organism has the capacity for Fe(III) reduction. The suggestion, based on geological evidence, that Fe(III) reduction was the first globally significant process for oxidizing organic matter back to carbon dioxide is consistent with the finding that acetate-oxidizing Fe(III) reducers are phylogenetically diverse.

  1. Complete mitochondrial genome of the Indian peafowl (Pavo cristatus), with phylogenetic analysis in phasianidae.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Tai-Cheng; Sha, Tao; Irwin, David M; Zhang, Ya-Ping

    2015-01-01

    Pavo cristatus, known as the Indian peafowl, is endemic to India and Sri Lanka and has been domesticated for its ornamental and food value. However, its phylogenetic status is still debated. Here, to clarify the phylogenetic status of P. cristatus within Phasianidae, we analyzed its mitochondrial genome (mtDNA). The complete mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genome was determined using 34 pairs of primers. Our data show that the mtDNA genome of P. cristatus is 16,686 bp in length. Molecular phylogenetic analyses of P. cristatus was performed along with 22 complete mtDNA genomes belonging to other species in Phasianidae using Bayesian and maximum likelihood methods, where Aythya americana and Anas platyrhynchos were used as outgroups. Our results show that P. critatus has its closest genetic affinity with Pavo muticus and belongs to clade that contains Gallus, Bambusicola and Francolinus.

  2. Complete mitochondrial genome of the Indian peafowl (Pavo cristatus), with phylogenetic analysis in phasianidae.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Tai-Cheng; Sha, Tao; Irwin, David M; Zhang, Ya-Ping

    2015-01-01

    Pavo cristatus, known as the Indian peafowl, is endemic to India and Sri Lanka and has been domesticated for its ornamental and food value. However, its phylogenetic status is still debated. Here, to clarify the phylogenetic status of P. cristatus within Phasianidae, we analyzed its mitochondrial genome (mtDNA). The complete mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genome was determined using 34 pairs of primers. Our data show that the mtDNA genome of P. cristatus is 16,686 bp in length. Molecular phylogenetic analyses of P. cristatus was performed along with 22 complete mtDNA genomes belonging to other species in Phasianidae using Bayesian and maximum likelihood methods, where Aythya americana and Anas platyrhynchos were used as outgroups. Our results show that P. critatus has its closest genetic affinity with Pavo muticus and belongs to clade that contains Gallus, Bambusicola and Francolinus. PMID:24409883

  3. The phylogenetic and recombinational analysis of beak and feather disease virus Taiwan isolates.

    PubMed

    Huang, Shr-Wei; Chiang, Yu-Chung; Chin, Chien-Yu; Tang, Pin-Chi; Liu, Pan-Chen; Wang, Chi-Young

    2016-11-01

    Beak and feather disease virus (BFDV) is an avian circovirus, and it has a single-stranded DNA genome. It causes a fatal disease in parrots called psittacine beak and feather disease (PBFD). After screening of samples collected from Taiwan using PCR, complete genome sequences of isolates from 21 samples from various species of parrot were obtained. The nucleotide sequences of the replication-associated protein gene (rep) and the amino acid sequences of the replication-associated protein (Rep) were more conserved than the nucleotide sequences of the capsid protein gene (cp) and the amino acid sequences of the capsid protein (CP). In Bayesian phylogenetic analysis, the topology of the complete genome sequence was similar to that of the rep gene alone. Recombination events were identified in Taiwan isolates. Recombination hot spots were mainly located in the intergenic region between the 3' ends of the rep and cp genes and at the 5' end of the cp gene. The 5' end and the middle of the rep gene were found to be recombination cold spots. Despite the overall negative selection that was observed for the rep and cp genes, one and 18 positive selected sites were found for the rep and cp gene, respectively. PMID:27388370

  4. Using Bayesian analysis in repeated preclinical in vivo studies for a more effective use of animals.

    PubMed

    Walley, Rosalind; Sherington, John; Rastrick, Joe; Detrait, Eric; Hanon, Etienne; Watt, Gillian

    2016-05-01

    Whilst innovative Bayesian approaches are increasingly used in clinical studies, in the preclinical area Bayesian methods appear to be rarely used in the reporting of pharmacology data. This is particularly surprising in the context of regularly repeated in vivo studies where there is a considerable amount of data from historical control groups, which has potential value. This paper describes our experience with introducing Bayesian analysis for such studies using a Bayesian meta-analytic predictive approach. This leads naturally either to an informative prior for a control group as part of a full Bayesian analysis of the next study or using a predictive distribution to replace a control group entirely. We use quality control charts to illustrate study-to-study variation to the scientists and describe informative priors in terms of their approximate effective numbers of animals. We describe two case studies of animal models: the lipopolysaccharide-induced cytokine release model used in inflammation and the novel object recognition model used to screen cognitive enhancers, both of which show the advantage of a Bayesian approach over the standard frequentist analysis. We conclude that using Bayesian methods in stable repeated in vivo studies can result in a more effective use of animals, either by reducing the total number of animals used or by increasing the precision of key treatment differences. This will lead to clearer results and supports the "3Rs initiative" to Refine, Reduce and Replace animals in research. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. Bayesian analysis of multimodal data and brain imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Assadi, Amir H.; Eghbalnia, Hamid; Backonja, Miroslav; Wakai, Ronald T.; Rutecki, Paul; Haughton, Victor

    2000-06-01

    It is often the case that information about a process can be obtained using a variety of methods. Each method is employed because of specific advantages over the competing alternatives. An example in medical neuro-imaging is the choice between fMRI and MEG modes where fMRI can provide high spatial resolution in comparison to the superior temporal resolution of MEG. The combination of data from varying modes provides the opportunity to infer results that may not be possible by means of any one mode alone. We discuss a Bayesian and learning theoretic framework for enhanced feature extraction that is particularly suited to multi-modal investigations of massive data sets from multiple experiments. In the following Bayesian approach, acquired knowledge (information) regarding various aspects of the process are all directly incorporated into the formulation. This information can come from a variety of sources. In our case, it represents statistical information obtained from other modes of data collection. The information is used to train a learning machine to estimate a probability distribution, which is used in turn by a second machine as a prior, in order to produce a more refined estimation of the distribution of events. The computational demand of the algorithm is handled by proposing a distributed parallel implementation on a cluster of workstations that can be scaled to address real-time needs if required. We provide a simulation of these methods on a set of synthetically generated MEG and EEG data. We show how spatial and temporal resolutions improve by using prior distributions. The method on fMRI signals permits one to construct the probability distribution of the non-linear hemodynamics of the human brain (real data). These computational results are in agreement with biologically based measurements of other labs, as reported to us by researchers from UK. We also provide preliminary analysis involving multi-electrode cortical recording that accompanies

  6. STUDIES IN ASTRONOMICAL TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. VI. BAYESIAN BLOCK REPRESENTATIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Scargle, Jeffrey D.; Norris, Jay P.; Jackson, Brad; Chiang, James

    2013-02-20

    This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it-an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks-that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piecewise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by Arias-Castro et al. In the spirit of Reproducible Research all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as supplementary material.

  7. Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. VI. Bayesian Block Representations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scargle, Jeffrey D.; Norris, Jay P.; Jackson, Brad; Chiang, James

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it-an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks [Scargle 1998]-that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piece- wise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by [Arias-Castro, Donoho and Huo 2003]. In the spirit of Reproducible Research [Donoho et al. (2008)] all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as auxiliary material.

  8. Using Bayesian Population Viability Analysis to Define Relevant Conservation Objectives.

    PubMed

    Green, Adam W; Bailey, Larissa L

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive management provides a useful framework for managing natural resources in the face of uncertainty. An important component of adaptive management is identifying clear, measurable conservation objectives that reflect the desired outcomes of stakeholders. A common objective is to have a sustainable population, or metapopulation, but it can be difficult to quantify a threshold above which such a population is likely to persist. We performed a Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis (BMPVA) using a dynamic occupancy model to quantify the characteristics of two wood frog (Lithobates sylvatica) metapopulations resulting in sustainable populations, and we demonstrate how the results could be used to define meaningful objectives that serve as the basis of adaptive management. We explored scenarios involving metapopulations with different numbers of patches (pools) using estimates of breeding occurrence and successful metamorphosis from two study areas to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction and calculate the proportion of vernal pools producing metamorphs. Our results suggest that ≥50 pools are required to ensure long-term persistence with approximately 16% of pools producing metamorphs in stable metapopulations. We demonstrate one way to incorporate the BMPVA results into a utility function that balances the trade-offs between ecological and financial objectives, which can be used in an adaptive management framework to make optimal, transparent decisions. Our approach provides a framework for using a standard method (i.e., PVA) and available information to inform a formal decision process to determine optimal and timely management policies.

  9. A Bayesian Model for the Analysis of Transgenerational Epigenetic Variation

    PubMed Central

    Varona, Luis; Munilla, Sebastián; Mouresan, Elena Flavia; González-Rodríguez, Aldemar; Moreno, Carlos; Altarriba, Juan

    2015-01-01

    Epigenetics has become one of the major areas of biological research. However, the degree of phenotypic variability that is explained by epigenetic processes still remains unclear. From a quantitative genetics perspective, the estimation of variance components is achieved by means of the information provided by the resemblance between relatives. In a previous study, this resemblance was described as a function of the epigenetic variance component and a reset coefficient that indicates the rate of dissipation of epigenetic marks across generations. Given these assumptions, we propose a Bayesian mixed model methodology that allows the estimation of epigenetic variance from a genealogical and phenotypic database. The methodology is based on the development of a T matrix of epigenetic relationships that depends on the reset coefficient. In addition, we present a simple procedure for the calculation of the inverse of this matrix (T−1) and a Gibbs sampler algorithm that obtains posterior estimates of all the unknowns in the model. The new procedure was used with two simulated data sets and with a beef cattle database. In the simulated populations, the results of the analysis provided marginal posterior distributions that included the population parameters in the regions of highest posterior density. In the case of the beef cattle dataset, the posterior estimate of transgenerational epigenetic variability was very low and a model comparison test indicated that a model that did not included it was the most plausible. PMID:25617408

  10. A Bayesian model for the analysis of transgenerational epigenetic variation.

    PubMed

    Varona, Luis; Munilla, Sebastián; Mouresan, Elena Flavia; González-Rodríguez, Aldemar; Moreno, Carlos; Altarriba, Juan

    2015-01-23

    Epigenetics has become one of the major areas of biological research. However, the degree of phenotypic variability that is explained by epigenetic processes still remains unclear. From a quantitative genetics perspective, the estimation of variance components is achieved by means of the information provided by the resemblance between relatives. In a previous study, this resemblance was described as a function of the epigenetic variance component and a reset coefficient that indicates the rate of dissipation of epigenetic marks across generations. Given these assumptions, we propose a Bayesian mixed model methodology that allows the estimation of epigenetic variance from a genealogical and phenotypic database. The methodology is based on the development of a T: matrix of epigenetic relationships that depends on the reset coefficient. In addition, we present a simple procedure for the calculation of the inverse of this matrix ( T-1: ) and a Gibbs sampler algorithm that obtains posterior estimates of all the unknowns in the model. The new procedure was used with two simulated data sets and with a beef cattle database. In the simulated populations, the results of the analysis provided marginal posterior distributions that included the population parameters in the regions of highest posterior density. In the case of the beef cattle dataset, the posterior estimate of transgenerational epigenetic variability was very low and a model comparison test indicated that a model that did not included it was the most plausible.

  11. Light curve demography via Bayesian functional data analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loredo, Thomas; Budavari, Tamas; Hendry, Martin A.; Kowal, Daniel; Ruppert, David

    2015-08-01

    Synoptic time-domain surveys provide astronomers, not simply more data, but a different kind of data: large ensembles of multivariate, irregularly and asynchronously sampled light curves. We describe a statistical framework for light curve demography—optimal accumulation and extraction of information, not only along individual light curves as conventional methods do, but also across large ensembles of related light curves. We build the framework using tools from functional data analysis (FDA), a rapidly growing area of statistics that addresses inference from datasets that sample ensembles of related functions. Our Bayesian FDA framework builds hierarchical models that describe light curve ensembles using multiple levels of randomness: upper levels describe the source population, and lower levels describe the observation process, including measurement errors and selection effects. Schematically, a particular object's light curve is modeled as the sum of a parameterized template component (modeling population-averaged behavior) and a peculiar component (modeling variability across the population), subsequently subjected to an observation model. A functional shrinkage adjustment to individual light curves emerges—an adaptive, functional generalization of the kind of adjustments made for Eddington or Malmquist bias in single-epoch photometric surveys. We are applying the framework to a variety of problems in synoptic time-domain survey astronomy, including optimal detection of weak sources in multi-epoch data, and improved estimation of Cepheid variable star luminosities from detailed demographic modeling of ensembles of Cepheid light curves.

  12. Using Bayesian Population Viability Analysis to Define Relevant Conservation Objectives

    PubMed Central

    Green, Adam W.; Bailey, Larissa L.

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive management provides a useful framework for managing natural resources in the face of uncertainty. An important component of adaptive management is identifying clear, measurable conservation objectives that reflect the desired outcomes of stakeholders. A common objective is to have a sustainable population, or metapopulation, but it can be difficult to quantify a threshold above which such a population is likely to persist. We performed a Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis (BMPVA) using a dynamic occupancy model to quantify the characteristics of two wood frog (Lithobates sylvatica) metapopulations resulting in sustainable populations, and we demonstrate how the results could be used to define meaningful objectives that serve as the basis of adaptive management. We explored scenarios involving metapopulations with different numbers of patches (pools) using estimates of breeding occurrence and successful metamorphosis from two study areas to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction and calculate the proportion of vernal pools producing metamorphs. Our results suggest that ≥50 pools are required to ensure long-term persistence with approximately 16% of pools producing metamorphs in stable metapopulations. We demonstrate one way to incorporate the BMPVA results into a utility function that balances the trade-offs between ecological and financial objectives, which can be used in an adaptive management framework to make optimal, transparent decisions. Our approach provides a framework for using a standard method (i.e., PVA) and available information to inform a formal decision process to determine optimal and timely management policies. PMID:26658734

  13. BAYESIAN ANGULAR POWER SPECTRUM ANALYSIS OF INTERFEROMETRIC DATA

    SciTech Connect

    Sutter, P. M.; Wandelt, Benjamin D.; Malu, Siddarth S.

    2012-09-15

    We present a Bayesian angular power spectrum and signal map inference engine which can be adapted to interferometric observations of anisotropies in the cosmic microwave background (CMB), 21 cm emission line mapping of galactic brightness fluctuations, or 21 cm absorption line mapping of neutral hydrogen in the dark ages. The method uses Gibbs sampling to generate a sampled representation of the angular power spectrum posterior and the posterior of signal maps given a set of measured visibilities in the uv-plane. We use a mock interferometric CMB observation to demonstrate the validity of this method in the flat-sky approximation when adapted to take into account arbitrary coverage of the uv-plane, mode-mode correlations due to observations on a finite patch, and heteroschedastic visibility errors. The computational requirements scale as O(n{sub p} log n{sub p}) where n{sub p} measures the ratio of the size of the detector array to the inter-detector spacing, meaning that Gibbs sampling is a promising technique for meeting the data analysis requirements of future cosmology missions.

  14. Using Bayesian Population Viability Analysis to Define Relevant Conservation Objectives.

    PubMed

    Green, Adam W; Bailey, Larissa L

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive management provides a useful framework for managing natural resources in the face of uncertainty. An important component of adaptive management is identifying clear, measurable conservation objectives that reflect the desired outcomes of stakeholders. A common objective is to have a sustainable population, or metapopulation, but it can be difficult to quantify a threshold above which such a population is likely to persist. We performed a Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis (BMPVA) using a dynamic occupancy model to quantify the characteristics of two wood frog (Lithobates sylvatica) metapopulations resulting in sustainable populations, and we demonstrate how the results could be used to define meaningful objectives that serve as the basis of adaptive management. We explored scenarios involving metapopulations with different numbers of patches (pools) using estimates of breeding occurrence and successful metamorphosis from two study areas to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction and calculate the proportion of vernal pools producing metamorphs. Our results suggest that ≥50 pools are required to ensure long-term persistence with approximately 16% of pools producing metamorphs in stable metapopulations. We demonstrate one way to incorporate the BMPVA results into a utility function that balances the trade-offs between ecological and financial objectives, which can be used in an adaptive management framework to make optimal, transparent decisions. Our approach provides a framework for using a standard method (i.e., PVA) and available information to inform a formal decision process to determine optimal and timely management policies. PMID:26658734

  15. Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. VI. Bayesian Block Representations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scargle, Jeffrey D.; Norris, Jay P.; Jackson, Brad; Chiang, James

    2013-02-01

    This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it—an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks—that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piecewise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by Arias-Castro et al. In the spirit of Reproducible Research all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as supplementary material.

  16. Bayesian analysis of inflation: Parameter estimation for single field models

    SciTech Connect

    Mortonson, Michael J.; Peiris, Hiranya V.; Easther, Richard

    2011-02-15

    Future astrophysical data sets promise to strengthen constraints on models of inflation, and extracting these constraints requires methods and tools commensurate with the quality of the data. In this paper we describe ModeCode, a new, publicly available code that computes the primordial scalar and tensor power spectra for single-field inflationary models. ModeCode solves the inflationary mode equations numerically, avoiding the slow roll approximation. It is interfaced with CAMB and CosmoMC to compute cosmic microwave background angular power spectra and perform likelihood analysis and parameter estimation. ModeCode is easily extendable to additional models of inflation, and future updates will include Bayesian model comparison. Errors from ModeCode contribute negligibly to the error budget for analyses of data from Planck or other next generation experiments. We constrain representative single-field models ({phi}{sup n} with n=2/3, 1, 2, and 4, natural inflation, and 'hilltop' inflation) using current data, and provide forecasts for Planck. From current data, we obtain weak but nontrivial limits on the post-inflationary physics, which is a significant source of uncertainty in the predictions of inflationary models, while we find that Planck will dramatically improve these constraints. In particular, Planck will link the inflationary dynamics with the post-inflationary growth of the horizon, and thus begin to probe the ''primordial dark ages'' between TeV and grand unified theory scale energies.

  17. Cepheid light curve demography via Bayesian functional data analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loredo, Thomas J.; Hendry, Martin; Kowal, Daniel; Ruppert, David

    2016-01-01

    Synoptic time-domain surveys provide astronomers, not simply more data, but a different kind of data: large ensembles of multivariate, irregularly and asynchronously sampled light curves. We describe a statistical framework for light curve demography—optimal accumulation and extraction of information, not only along individual light curves as conventional methods do, but also across large ensembles of related light curves. We build the framework using tools from functional data analysis (FDA), a rapidly growing area of statistics that addresses inference from datasets that sample ensembles of related functions. Our Bayesian FDA framework builds hierarchical models that describe light curve ensembles using multiple levels of randomness: upper levels describe the source population, and lower levels describe the observation process, including measurement errors and selection effects. Roughly speaking, a particular object's light curve is modeled as the sum of a parameterized template component (modeling population-averaged behavior) and a peculiar component (modeling variability across the population), subsequently subjected to an observation model. A functional shrinkage adjustment to individual light curves emerges—an adaptive, functional generalization of the kind of adjustments made for Eddington or Malmquist bias in single-epoch photometric surveys. We describe ongoing work applying the framework to improved estimation of Cepheid variable star luminosities via FDA-based refinement and generalization of the Cepheid period-luminosity relation.

  18. Dynamic sensor action selection with Bayesian decision analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kristensen, Steen; Hansen, Volker; Kondak, Konstantin

    1998-10-01

    The aim of this work is to create a framework for the dynamic planning of sensor actions for an autonomous mobile robot. The framework uses Bayesian decision analysis, i.e., a decision-theoretic method, to evaluate possible sensor actions and selecting the most appropriate ones given the available sensors and what is currently known about the state of the world. Since sensing changes the knowledge of the system and since the current state of the robot (task, position, etc.) determines what knowledge is relevant, the evaluation and selection of sensing actions is an on-going process that effectively determines the behavior of the robot. The framework has been implemented on a real mobile robot and has been proven to be able to control in real-time the sensor actions of the system. In current work we are investigating methods to reduce or automatically generate the necessary model information needed by the decision- theoretic method to select the appropriate sensor actions.

  19. Nonparametric survival analysis using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART).

    PubMed

    Sparapani, Rodney A; Logan, Brent R; McCulloch, Robert E; Laud, Purushottam W

    2016-07-20

    Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) provide a framework for flexible nonparametric modeling of relationships of covariates to outcomes. Recently, BART models have been shown to provide excellent predictive performance, for both continuous and binary outcomes, and exceeding that of its competitors. Software is also readily available for such outcomes. In this article, we introduce modeling that extends the usefulness of BART in medical applications by addressing needs arising in survival analysis. Simulation studies of one-sample and two-sample scenarios, in comparison with long-standing traditional methods, establish face validity of the new approach. We then demonstrate the model's ability to accommodate data from complex regression models with a simulation study of a nonproportional hazards scenario with crossing survival functions and survival function estimation in a scenario where hazards are multiplicatively modified by a highly nonlinear function of the covariates. Using data from a recently published study of patients undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, we illustrate the use and some advantages of the proposed method in medical investigations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26854022

  20. Nuclear stockpile stewardship and Bayesian image analysis (DARHT and the BIE)

    SciTech Connect

    Carroll, James L

    2011-01-11

    Since the end of nuclear testing, the reliability of our nation's nuclear weapon stockpile has been performed using sub-critical hydrodynamic testing. These tests involve some pretty 'extreme' radiography. We will be discussing the challenges and solutions to these problems provided by DARHT (the world's premiere hydrodynamic testing facility) and the BIE or Bayesian Inference Engine (a powerful radiography analysis software tool). We will discuss the application of Bayesian image analysis techniques to this important and difficult problem.

  1. Hepatitis E Virus Circulation in Italy: Phylogenetic and Evolutionary Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Montesano, Carla; Giovanetti, Marta; Ciotti, Marco; Cella, Eleonora; Lo Presti, Alessandra; Grifoni, Alba; Zehender, Gianguglielmo; Angeletti, Silvia; Ciccozzi, Massimo

    2016-01-01

    Background Hepatitis E virus (HEV), a major cause of acute viral hepatitis in developing countries, has been classified into four main genotypes and a number of subtypes. New genotypes have been recently identified in various mammals, including HEV genotype 3, which has a worldwide distribution. It is widespread among pigs in developed countries. Objectives This study investigated the genetic diversity of HEV among humans and swine in Italy. The date of origin and the demographic history of the HEV were also estimated. Materials and Methods A total of 327 HEV sequences of swine and humans from Italy were downloaded from the national centre for biotechnology information. Three different data sets were constructed. The first and the second data set were used to confirm the genotype of the sequences analyzed. The third data set was used to estimate the mean evolutionary rate and to determine the time-scaled phylogeny and demographic history. Results The Bayesian maximum clade credibility tree and the time of the most common recent ancestor estimates showed that the root of the tree dated back to the year 1907 (95% HPD: 1811 - 1975). Two main clades were found, divided into two subclades. Skyline plot analysis, performed separately for human and swine sequences, demonstrated the presence of a bottleneck only in the skyline plot from the swine sequences. Selective pressure analysis revealed only negatively selected sites. Conclusions This study provides support for the hypothesis that humans are probably infected after contact with swine sources. The findings emphasize the importance of checking the country of origin of swine and of improving sanitary control measures from the veterinary standpoint to prevent the spread of HEV infection in Italy. PMID:27226798

  2. Evolutionary and Phylogenetic Analysis of the Hepaciviruses and Pegiviruses.

    PubMed

    Thézé, Julien; Lowes, Sophia; Parker, Joe; Pybus, Oliver G

    2015-11-01

    The known genetic diversity of the hepaciviruses and pegiviruses has increased greatly in recent years through the discovery of viruses related to hepatitis C virus and human pegivirus in bats, bovines, equines, primates, and rodents. Analysis of these new species is important for research into animal models of hepatitis C virus infection and into the zoonotic origins of human viruses. Here, we provide the first systematic phylogenetic and evolutionary analysis of these two genera at the whole-genome level. Phylogenies confirmed that hepatitis C virus is most closely related to viruses from horses whereas human pegiviruses clustered with viruses from African primates. Within each genus, several well-supported lineages were identified and viral diversity was structured by both host species and location of sampling. Recombination analyses provided evidence of interspecific recombination in hepaciviruses, but none in the pegiviruses. Putative mosaic genome structures were identified in NS5B gene region and were supported by multiple tests. The identification of interspecific recombination in the hepaciviruses represents an important evolutionary event that could be clarified by future sampling of novel viruses. We also identified parallel amino acid changes shared by distantly related lineages that infect similar types of host. Notable parallel changes were clustered in the NS3 and NS4B genes and provide a useful starting point for experimental studies of the evolution of Hepacivirus host-virus interactions. PMID:26494702

  3. Comparing models for perfluorooctanoic acid pharmacokinetics using Bayesian analysis.

    PubMed

    Wambaugh, John F; Barton, Hugh A; Setzer, R Woodrow

    2008-12-01

    Selecting the appropriate pharmacokinetic (PK) model given the available data is investigated for perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), which has been widely analyzed with an empirical, one-compartment model. This research examined the results of experiments [Kemper R. A., DuPont Haskell Laboratories, USEPA Administrative Record AR-226.1499 (2003)] that administered single oral or iv doses of PFOA to adult male and female rats. PFOA concentration was observed over time; in plasma for some animals and in fecal and urinary excretion for others. There were four rats per dose group, for a total of 36 males and 36 females. Assuming that the PK parameters for each individual within a gender were drawn from the same, biologically varying population, plasma and excretion data were jointly analyzed using a hierarchical framework to separate uncertainty due to measurement error from actual biological variability. Bayesian analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provides tools to perform such an analysis as well as quantitative diagnostics to evaluate and discriminate between models. Starting from a one-compartment PK model with separate clearances to urine and feces, the model was incrementally expanded using Bayesian measures to assess if the expansion was supported by the data. PFOA excretion is sexually dimorphic in rats; male rats have bi-phasic elimination that is roughly 40 times slower than that of the females, which appear to have a single elimination phase. The male and female data were analyzed separately, keeping only the parameters describing the measurement process in common. For male rats, including excretion data initially decreased certainty in the one-compartment parameter estimates compared to an analysis using plasma data only. Allowing a third, unspecified clearance improved agreement and increased certainty when all the data was used, however a significant amount of eliminated PFOA was estimated to be missing from the excretion data. Adding an additional

  4. Rapid ribosomal RNA sequencing and the phylogenetic analysis of protists.

    PubMed

    Johnson, A M; Baverstock, P R

    1989-04-01

    A newly described technique for rapidly obtaining the partial nucleotide sequence of ribosomal RNA is being applied to investigate phylogenetic relationships among living organisms. Alan Johnson and Peter Boverstock describe the importance of this method to parasitology in providing new information on the phylogenetic relationships of parasitic organisms previously placed in groups of convenience. The phylum Apicomplexo in particular, has been the object of much study using this technique, but the technology is likely to extend soon to the restructuring of the phylogenetic trees of many groups of parasites.

  5. Bayesian methods for quantitative trait loci mapping based on model selection: approximate analysis using the Bayesian information criterion.

    PubMed Central

    Ball, R D

    2001-01-01

    We describe an approximate method for the analysis of quantitative trait loci (QTL) based on model selection from multiple regression models with trait values regressed on marker genotypes, using a modification of the easily calculated Bayesian information criterion to estimate the posterior probability of models with various subsets of markers as variables. The BIC-delta criterion, with the parameter delta increasing the penalty for additional variables in a model, is further modified to incorporate prior information, and missing values are handled by multiple imputation. Marginal probabilities for model sizes are calculated, and the posterior probability of nonzero model size is interpreted as the posterior probability of existence of a QTL linked to one or more markers. The method is demonstrated on analysis of associations between wood density and markers on two linkage groups in Pinus radiata. Selection bias, which is the bias that results from using the same data to both select the variables in a model and estimate the coefficients, is shown to be a problem for commonly used non-Bayesian methods for QTL mapping, which do not average over alternative possible models that are consistent with the data. PMID:11729175

  6. Bayesian analysis of a morphological supermatrix sheds light on controversial fossil hominin relationships

    PubMed Central

    Dembo, Mana; Matzke, Nicholas J.; Mooers, Arne Ø.; Collard, Mark

    2015-01-01

    The phylogenetic relationships of several hominin species remain controversial. Two methodological issues contribute to the uncertainty—use of partial, inconsistent datasets and reliance on phylogenetic methods that are ill-suited to testing competing hypotheses. Here, we report a study designed to overcome these issues. We first compiled a supermatrix of craniodental characters for all widely accepted hominin species. We then took advantage of recently developed Bayesian methods for building trees of serially sampled tips to test among hypotheses that have been put forward in three of the most important current debates in hominin phylogenetics—the relationship between Australopithecus sediba and Homo, the taxonomic status of the Dmanisi hominins, and the place of the so-called hobbit fossils from Flores, Indonesia, in the hominin tree. Based on our results, several published hypotheses can be statistically rejected. For example, the data do not support the claim that Dmanisi hominins and all other early Homo specimens represent a single species, nor that the hobbit fossils are the remains of small-bodied modern humans, one of whom had Down syndrome. More broadly, our study provides a new baseline dataset for future work on hominin phylogeny and illustrates the promise of Bayesian approaches for understanding hominin phylogenetic relationships. PMID:26202999

  7. Bayesian Analysis of Multiple Populations in Galactic Globular Clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner-Kaiser, Rachel A.; Sarajedini, Ata; von Hippel, Ted; Stenning, David; Piotto, Giampaolo; Milone, Antonino; van Dyk, David A.; Robinson, Elliot; Stein, Nathan

    2016-01-01

    We use GO 13297 Cycle 21 Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations and archival GO 10775 Cycle 14 HST ACS Treasury observations of Galactic Globular Clusters to find and characterize multiple stellar populations. Determining how globular clusters are able to create and retain enriched material to produce several generations of stars is key to understanding how these objects formed and how they have affected the structural, kinematic, and chemical evolution of the Milky Way. We employ a sophisticated Bayesian technique with an adaptive MCMC algorithm to simultaneously fit the age, distance, absorption, and metallicity for each cluster. At the same time, we also fit unique helium values to two distinct populations of the cluster and determine the relative proportions of those populations. Our unique numerical approach allows objective and precise analysis of these complicated clusters, providing posterior distribution functions for each parameter of interest. We use these results to gain a better understanding of multiple populations in these clusters and their role in the history of the Milky Way.Support for this work was provided by NASA through grant numbers HST-GO-10775 and HST-GO-13297 from the Space Telescope Science Institute, which is operated by AURA, Inc., under NASA contract NAS5-26555. This material is based upon work supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant NNX11AF34G issued through the Office of Space Science. This project was supported by the National Aeronautics & Space Administration through the University of Central Florida's NASA Florida Space Grant Consortium.

  8. JBASE: Joint Bayesian Analysis of Subphenotypes and Epistasis

    PubMed Central

    Colak, Recep; Kim, TaeHyung; Kazan, Hilal; Oh, Yoomi; Cruz, Miguel; Valladares-Salgado, Adan; Peralta, Jesus; Escobedo, Jorge; Parra, Esteban J.; Kim, Philip M.; Goldenberg, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Motivation: Rapid advances in genotyping and genome-wide association studies have enabled the discovery of many new genotype–phenotype associations at the resolution of individual markers. However, these associations explain only a small proportion of theoretically estimated heritability of most diseases. In this work, we propose an integrative mixture model called JBASE: joint Bayesian analysis of subphenotypes and epistasis. JBASE explores two major reasons of missing heritability: interactions between genetic variants, a phenomenon known as epistasis and phenotypic heterogeneity, addressed via subphenotyping. Results: Our extensive simulations in a wide range of scenarios repeatedly demonstrate that JBASE can identify true underlying subphenotypes, including their associated variants and their interactions, with high precision. In the presence of phenotypic heterogeneity, JBASE has higher Power and lower Type 1 Error than five state-of-the-art approaches. We applied our method to a sample of individuals from Mexico with Type 2 diabetes and discovered two novel epistatic modules, including two loci each, that define two subphenotypes characterized by differences in body mass index and waist-to-hip ratio. We successfully replicated these subphenotypes and epistatic modules in an independent dataset from Mexico genotyped with a different platform. Availability and implementation: JBASE is implemented in C++, supported on Linux and is available at http://www.cs.toronto.edu/∼goldenberg/JBASE/jbase.tar.gz. The genotype data underlying this study are available upon approval by the ethics review board of the Medical Centre Siglo XXI. Please contact Dr Miguel Cruz at mcruzl@yahoo.com for assistance with the application. Contact: anna.goldenberg@utoronto.ca Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:26411870

  9. Bayesian Statistical Analysis of Circadian Oscillations in Fibroblasts

    PubMed Central

    Cohen, Andrew L.; Leise, Tanya L.; Welsh, David K.

    2012-01-01

    Precise determination of a noisy biological oscillator’s period from limited experimental data can be challenging. The common practice is to calculate a single number (a point estimate) for the period of a particular time course. Uncertainty is inherent in any statistical estimator applied to noisy data, so our confidence in such point estimates depends on the quality and quantity of the data. Ideally, a period estimation method should both produce an accurate point estimate of the period and measure the uncertainty in that point estimate. A variety of period estimation methods are known, but few assess the uncertainty of the estimates, and a measure of uncertainty is rarely reported in the experimental literature. We compare the accuracy of point estimates using six common methods, only one of which can also produce uncertainty measures. We then illustrate the advantages of a new Bayesian method for estimating period, which outperforms the other six methods in accuracy of point estimates for simulated data and also provides a measure of uncertainty. We apply this method to analyze circadian oscillations of gene expression in individual mouse fibroblast cells and compute the number of cells and sampling duration required to reduce the uncertainty in period estimates to a desired level. This analysis indicates that, due to the stochastic variability of noisy intracellular oscillators, achieving a narrow margin of error can require an impractically large number of cells. In addition, we use a hierarchical model to determine the distribution of intrinsic cell periods, thereby separating the variability due to stochastic gene expression within each cell from the variability in period across the population of cells. PMID:22982138

  10. Inventory and Phylogenetic Analysis of Meiotic Genes in Monogonont Rotifers

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    A long-standing question in evolutionary biology is how sexual reproduction has persisted in eukaryotic lineages. As cyclical parthenogens, monogonont rotifers are a powerful model for examining this question, yet the molecular nature of sexual reproduction in this lineage is currently understudied. To examine genes involved in meiosis, we generated partial genome assemblies for 2 distantly related monogonont species, Brachionus calyciflorus and B. manjavacas. Here we present an inventory of 89 meiotic genes, of which 80 homologs were identified and annotated from these assemblies. Using phylogenetic analysis, we show that several meiotic genes have undergone relatively recent duplication events that appear to be specific to the monogonont lineage. Further, we compare the expression of “meiosis-specific” genes involved in recombination and all annotated copies of the cell cycle regulatory gene CDC20 between obligate parthenogenetic (OP) and cyclical parthenogenetic (CP) strains of B. calyciflorus. We show that “meiosis-specific” genes are expressed in both CP and OP strains, whereas the expression of one of the CDC20 genes is specific to cyclical parthenogenesis. The data presented here provide insights into mechanisms of cyclical parthenogenesis and establish expectations for studies of obligate asexual relatives of monogononts, the bdelloid rotifer lineage. PMID:23487324

  11. The phylogenetic analysis of avipoxvirus in New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Ha, Hye Jeong; Howe, Laryssa; Alley, Maurice; Gartrell, Brett

    2011-05-12

    Avipoxvirus is known to be endemic in New Zealand and it is a cause of ongoing mortalities in the endangered black robin and shore plover populations. There is no information on the strains of avipoxvirus occurring in New Zealand and their likely origin or pathogenicity. This study was designed to identify the phylogenetic relationships of pathogenic avipoxvirus strains infecting introduced, native, and endemic bird species in New Zealand. Avipoxvirus 4b core protein gene was detected in tissue samples from 25/48 birds (52.1%) from 15 different species in New Zealand. Bootstrap analysis of avipoxvirus 4b core protein gene revealed that the New Zealand avipoxvirus isolates comprised of three different subclades. The majority of New Zealand avipoxvirus isolates (74%) belonged to A1 subclade which shared 100% genetic similarity with the fowlpox HPB strain. An isolate from a wood-pigeon (kereru) belonged to subclade A3, displaying 100% sequence homology to albatrosspox virus. An additional group, isolated from two shore plovers and one South Island saddleback, grouped within subclade B1 and presented 99% sequence homology to European PM33/2007 and Hawaiian HAAM 22.10H8 isolates. The results suggest that a variety of New Zealand bird species are susceptible to avipoxvirus infection, that there are more than two distinctive avipoxvirus subclades in New Zealand, and that the most prevalent A1 strain may have been introduced to New Zealand through introduced avian hosts such as passerines or poultry.

  12. Molecular phylogenetic analysis of mango mealybug, Drosicha mangiferae from Punjab.

    PubMed

    Banta, Geetika; Jindal, Vikas; Mohindru, Bharathi; Sharma, Sachin; Kaur, Jaimeet; Gupta, V K

    2016-01-01

    Mealybugs (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) are major pests of a wide range of crops and ornamental plants worldwide. Their high degree of morphological similarity makes them difficult to identify and limits their study and management. In the present study, four Indian populations of mango mealybug (mango, litchi, guava from Gurdaspur and mango from Jalandhar) were analyzed. The mtCOI region was amplified, cloned, the nucleotide sequences were determined and analysed. All the four species were found to be D. mangiferae. The population from Litchi and Mango from Gurdaspur showed 100% homologus sequence. The population of Guava-Gurdaspur and Mango-Jalandhar showed a single mutation of 'C' instead of 'T' at 18th and 196th position, respectively. Indian populations were compared with populations from Pakistan (21) and Japan (1). The phylogenetic tree resulted in two main clusters. Cluster1 represent all the 4 populations of Punjab, India, 20 of Pakistan (Punjab, Sind, Lahore, Multan, Faisalabad and Karak districts) with homologous sequences. The two population collected from Faisalabad district of Pakistan and Japan made a separate cluster 2 because the gene sequence used in analysis was from the COI-3p region. However, all the other sequence of D. mangiferae samples under study showed a low nucleotide divergence. The homologus mtCO1 sequence of Indian and Pakistan population concluded that the genetic diversity in mealybug population was quite less over a large geographical area. PMID:26930860

  13. A Detailed Phylogenetic Analysis of FIV in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Weaver, Eric A.

    2010-01-01

    Background Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) is a lentivirus associated with AIDS-like illnesses in cats and has been used as a model for the study of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). A feature of HIV and FIV infection is the continually increasing divergence among viral isolates between different individuals, as well as within the same individuals. Methodology/Principal Findings The goal of this study was to determine the phylogenetic patterns of viral isolates obtained within the United States (U.S.) by focusing on the variable, V3-V4, region of the FIV envelope gene. Conclusions/Significance Data indicate that FIV, from within the U.S., localize to four viral clades, A, B, C, and F. Also shown is the geographic isolation of strains where clade A and clade B are found predominately on the west coast; however, clade B is also found throughout the U.S. and represents the predominant clade. This study presents a complete and conclusive analysis of FIV isolates from within the U.S. and may be used as the essential basis for the development of an effective multi-clade vaccine. PMID:20711253

  14. Molecular phylogenetic analysis of mango mealybug, Drosicha mangiferae from Punjab.

    PubMed

    Banta, Geetika; Jindal, Vikas; Mohindru, Bharathi; Sharma, Sachin; Kaur, Jaimeet; Gupta, V K

    2016-01-01

    Mealybugs (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) are major pests of a wide range of crops and ornamental plants worldwide. Their high degree of morphological similarity makes them difficult to identify and limits their study and management. In the present study, four Indian populations of mango mealybug (mango, litchi, guava from Gurdaspur and mango from Jalandhar) were analyzed. The mtCOI region was amplified, cloned, the nucleotide sequences were determined and analysed. All the four species were found to be D. mangiferae. The population from Litchi and Mango from Gurdaspur showed 100% homologus sequence. The population of Guava-Gurdaspur and Mango-Jalandhar showed a single mutation of 'C' instead of 'T' at 18th and 196th position, respectively. Indian populations were compared with populations from Pakistan (21) and Japan (1). The phylogenetic tree resulted in two main clusters. Cluster1 represent all the 4 populations of Punjab, India, 20 of Pakistan (Punjab, Sind, Lahore, Multan, Faisalabad and Karak districts) with homologous sequences. The two population collected from Faisalabad district of Pakistan and Japan made a separate cluster 2 because the gene sequence used in analysis was from the COI-3p region. However, all the other sequence of D. mangiferae samples under study showed a low nucleotide divergence. The homologus mtCO1 sequence of Indian and Pakistan population concluded that the genetic diversity in mealybug population was quite less over a large geographical area.

  15. Phylogenetic relationships within the speciose family Characidae (Teleostei: Ostariophysi: Characiformes) based on multilocus analysis and extensive ingroup sampling

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background With nearly 1,100 species, the fish family Characidae represents more than half of the species of Characiformes, and is a key component of Neotropical freshwater ecosystems. The composition, phylogeny, and classification of Characidae is currently uncertain, despite significant efforts based on analysis of morphological and molecular data. No consensus about the monophyly of this group or its position within the order Characiformes has been reached, challenged by the fact that many key studies to date have non-overlapping taxonomic representation and focus only on subsets of this diversity. Results In the present study we propose a new definition of the family Characidae and a hypothesis of relationships for the Characiformes based on phylogenetic analysis of DNA sequences of two mitochondrial and three nuclear genes (4,680 base pairs). The sequences were obtained from 211 samples representing 166 genera distributed among all 18 recognized families in the order Characiformes, all 14 recognized subfamilies in the Characidae, plus 56 of the genera so far considered incertae sedis in the Characidae. The phylogeny obtained is robust, with most lineages significantly supported by posterior probabilities in Bayesian analysis, and high bootstrap values from maximum likelihood and parsimony analyses. Conclusion A monophyletic assemblage strongly supported in all our phylogenetic analysis is herein defined as the Characidae and includes the characiform species lacking a supraorbital bone and with a derived position of the emergence of the hyoid artery from the anterior ceratohyal. To recognize this and several other monophyletic groups within characiforms we propose changes in the limits of several families to facilitate future studies in the Characiformes and particularly the Characidae. This work presents a new phylogenetic framework for a speciose and morphologically diverse group of freshwater fishes of significant ecological and evolutionary importance

  16. A New Orchid Genus, Danxiaorchis, and Phylogenetic Analysis of the Tribe Calypsoeae

    PubMed Central

    Zhai, Jun-Wen; Zhang, Guo-Qiang; Chen, Li-Jun; Xiao, Xin-Ju; Liu, Ke-Wei; Tsai, Wen-Chieh; Hsiao, Yu-Yun; Tian, Huai-Zhen; Zhu, Jia-Qiang; Wang, Mei-Na; Wang, Fa-Guo; Xing, Fu-Wu; Liu, Zhong-Jian

    2013-01-01

    Background Orchids have numerous species, and their speciation rates are presumed to be exceptionally high, suggesting that orchids are continuously and actively evolving. The wide diversity of orchids has attracted the interest of evolutionary biologists. In this study, a new orchid was discovered on Danxia Mountain in Guangdong, China. However, the phylogenetic clarification of this new orchid requires further molecular, morphological, and phytogeographic analyses. Methodology/Principal Findings A new orchid possesses a labellum with a large Y-shaped callus and two sacs at the base, and cylindrical, fleshy seeds, which make it distinct from all known orchid genera. Phylogenetic methods were applied to a matrix of morphological and molecular characters based on the fragments of the nuclear internal transcribed spacer, chloroplast matK, and rbcL genes of Orchidaceae (74 genera) and Calypsoeae (13 genera). The strict consensus Bayesian inference phylogram strongly supports the division of the Calypsoeae alliance (not including Dactylostalix and Ephippianthus) into seven clades with 11 genera. The sequence data of each species and the morphological characters of each genus were combined into a single dataset. The inferred Bayesian phylogram supports the division of the 13 genera of Calypsoeae into four clades with 13 subclades (genera). Based on the results of our phylogenetic analyses, Calypsoeae, under which the new orchid is classified, represents an independent lineage in the Epidendroideae subfamily. Conclusions Analyses of the combined datasets using Bayesian methods revealed strong evidence that Calypsoeae is a monophyletic tribe consisting of eight well-supported clades with 13 subclades (genera), which are all in agreement with the phytogeography of Calypsoeae. The Danxia orchid represents an independent lineage under the tribe Calypsoeae of the subfamily Epidendroideae. This lineage should be treated as a new genus, which we have named Danxiaorchis, that is

  17. Bayesian Analysis of Order-Statistics Models for Ranking Data.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yu, Philip L. H.

    2000-01-01

    Studied the order-statistics models, extending the usual normal order-statistics model into one in which the underlying random variables followed a multivariate normal distribution. Used a Bayesian approach and the Gibbs sampling technique. Applied the proposed method to analyze presidential election data from the American Psychological…

  18. Semiparametric Thurstonian Models for Recurrent Choices: A Bayesian Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ansari, Asim; Iyengar, Raghuram

    2006-01-01

    We develop semiparametric Bayesian Thurstonian models for analyzing repeated choice decisions involving multinomial, multivariate binary or multivariate ordinal data. Our modeling framework has multiple components that together yield considerable flexibility in modeling preference utilities, cross-sectional heterogeneity and parameter-driven…

  19. Genetic variation and phylogenetic relationship analysis of Jatropha curcas L. inferred from nrDNA ITS sequences.

    PubMed

    Guo, Guo-Ye; Chen, Fang; Shi, Xiao-Dong; Tian, Yin-Shuai; Yu, Mao-Qun; Han, Xue-Qin; Yuan, Li-Chun; Zhang, Ying

    2016-01-01

    Genetic variation and phylogenetic relationships among 102 Jatropha curcas accessions from Asia, Africa, and the Americas were assessed using the internal transcribed spacer region of nuclear ribosomal DNA (nrDNA ITS). The average G+C content (65.04%) was considerably higher than the A+T (34.96%) content. The estimated genetic diversity revealed moderate genetic variation. The pairwise genetic divergences (GD) between haplotypes were evaluated and ranged from 0.000 to 0.017, suggesting a higher level of genetic differentiation in Mexican accessions than those of other regions. Phylogenetic relationships and intraspecific divergence were inferred by Bayesian inference (BI), maximum parsimony (MP), and median joining (MJ) network analysis and were generally resolved. The J. curcas accessions were consistently divided into three lineages, groups A, B, and C, which demonstrated distant geographical isolation and genetic divergence between American accessions and those from other regions. The MJ network analysis confirmed that Central America was the possible center of origin. The putative migration route suggested that J. curcas was distributed from Mexico or Brazil, via Cape Verde and then split into two routes. One route was dispersed to Spain, then migrated to China, eventually spreading to southeastern Asia, while the other route was dispersed to Africa, via Madagascar and migrated to China, later spreading to southeastern Asia. PMID:27461559

  20. The complete mitochondrial genome of Choristoneura longicellana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) and phylogenetic analysis of Lepidoptera.

    PubMed

    Wu, Yu-Peng; Zhao, Jin-Liang; Su, Tian-Juan; Luo, A-Rong; Zhu, Chao-Dong

    2016-10-10

    To better understand the diversity and phylogeny of Lepidoptera, the complete mitochondrial genome of Choristoneura longicellana (=Hoshinoa longicellana) was determined. It is a typical circular duplex molecule with 15,759bp in length, containing the standard metazoan set of 13 protein-coding genes, 22 transfer RNA genes, 2 ribosomal RNA genes, and an A+T-rich region. All of the inferred tRNA secondary structures show the common cloverleaf pattern, with the exception of trnS1(AGN), which lacks the DHU arm. The rrnL of C. Longicellana is the longest in sequenced lepidopterans. C. Longicellana has the same gene order as all lepidopteran species currently available in GenBank. There are 5 overlapping regions ranging from 1bp to 8bp and 14 intergenic spacers ranging from 1bp to 48bp. In addition, there are four similar tandem macro-satellite regions with the lengths of 101bp, 98bp, 92bp, and 92bp respectively in the A+T-rich regions of C. longicellana. We sampled 89 species representing 13 superfamilies, and reconstructed their relationship among Lepidoptera by Bayesian Inference and Maximum Likelihood analysis. The topology of the two phylogenetic analysis trees is identical roughly, except for Cossoidea in different locations, the positions of Cossoidea, Copromorphoidea, Gelechioidea, Zygaenoidea were not determined based the limited sampling. (Geometroidea+(Noctuoidea+Bombycoidea)) form the Macrolepidoptera "core". Pyraloidea group with the "core" Macrolepidoptera. Papilionoidea are not Macrolepidoptera. The Hesperiidae (represent Hesperioidea) is nested in the Papilionoidea, and closely related to Pieridae and Papilionidae. The well-known relationship of (Nymphalidae+(Riodinidae+Lycaenidae)) is recovered in this paper. PMID:27390085

  1. Estimating size and scope economies in the Portuguese water sector using the Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis.

    PubMed

    Carvalho, Pedro; Marques, Rui Cunha

    2016-02-15

    This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the Portuguese water sector applying Bayesian and classical statistics to make inference in stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). This study proves the usefulness and advantages of the application of Bayesian statistics for making inference in SFA over traditional SFA which just uses classical statistics. The resulting Bayesian methods allow overcoming some problems that arise in the application of the traditional SFA, such as the bias in small samples and skewness of residuals. In the present case study of the water sector in Portugal, these Bayesian methods provide more plausible and acceptable results. Based on the results obtained we found that there are important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope in the Portuguese water sector, pointing out to the huge advantages in undertaking mergers by joining the retail and wholesale components and by joining the drinking water and wastewater services.

  2. Estimating size and scope economies in the Portuguese water sector using the Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis.

    PubMed

    Carvalho, Pedro; Marques, Rui Cunha

    2016-02-15

    This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the Portuguese water sector applying Bayesian and classical statistics to make inference in stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). This study proves the usefulness and advantages of the application of Bayesian statistics for making inference in SFA over traditional SFA which just uses classical statistics. The resulting Bayesian methods allow overcoming some problems that arise in the application of the traditional SFA, such as the bias in small samples and skewness of residuals. In the present case study of the water sector in Portugal, these Bayesian methods provide more plausible and acceptable results. Based on the results obtained we found that there are important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope in the Portuguese water sector, pointing out to the huge advantages in undertaking mergers by joining the retail and wholesale components and by joining the drinking water and wastewater services. PMID:26674686

  3. POWER: PhylOgenetic WEb Repeater--an integrated and user-optimized framework for biomolecular phylogenetic analysis.

    PubMed

    Lin, Chung-Yen; Lin, Fan-Kai; Lin, Chieh Hua; Lai, Li-Wei; Hsu, Hsiu-Jun; Chen, Shu-Hwa; Hsiung, Chao A

    2005-07-01

    POWER, the PhylOgenetic WEb Repeater, is a web-based service designed to perform user-friendly pipeline phylogenetic analysis. POWER uses an open-source LAMP structure and infers genetic distances and phylogenetic relationships using well-established algorithms (ClustalW and PHYLIP). POWER incorporates a novel tree builder based on the GD library to generate a high-quality tree topology according to the calculated result. POWER accepts either raw sequences in FASTA format or user-uploaded alignment output files. Through a user-friendly web interface, users can sketch a tree effortlessly in multiple steps. After a tree has been generated, users can freely set and modify parameters, select tree building algorithms, refine sequence alignments or edit the tree topology. All the information related to input sequences and the processing history is logged and downloadable for the user's reference. Furthermore, iterative tree construction can be performed by adding sequences to, or removing them from, a previously submitted job. POWER is accessible at http://power.nhri.org.tw.

  4. Phylogenetic analysis of the Mustela altaica (Carnivora: Mustelidae) based on complete mitochondrial genome.

    PubMed

    Huang, Jie; Yang, Bo; Yan, Chaochao; Yang, Chengzhong; Tu, Feiyun; Zhang, Xiuyue; Yue, Bisong

    2014-08-01

    The mountain weasel (Mustela altaica) belongs to family Mustelidae, which is the near threatened species in the IUCN Red List. In this study, the complete mitochondrial genome of M. altaica was sequenced and characterized. The genome is 16,521 bases in length (GenBank accession no. KC815122). The nucleotide sequence data of 12 heavy-strand protein-coding genes of M. altaica and other 20 Mustelidae species were used for phylogenetic analyses. Trees constructed by using Bayesian inference, maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood demonstrated that M. altaica was close to Mustela nivalis and they were sister to Mustela putorius and Mustela sibirica.

  5. Phylogenetic analysis of mitochondrial protein coding genes confirms the reciprocal paraphyly of Hexapoda and Crustacea

    PubMed Central

    Carapelli, Antonio; Liò, Pietro; Nardi, Francesco; van der Wath, Elizabeth; Frati, Francesco

    2007-01-01

    Background The phylogeny of Arthropoda is still a matter of harsh debate among systematists, and significant disagreement exists between morphological and molecular studies. In particular, while the taxon joining hexapods and crustaceans (the Pancrustacea) is now widely accepted among zoologists, the relationships among its basal lineages, and particularly the supposed reciprocal paraphyly of Crustacea and Hexapoda, continues to represent a challenge. Several genes, as well as different molecular markers, have been used to tackle this problem in molecular phylogenetic studies, with the mitochondrial DNA being one of the molecules of choice. In this study, we have assembled the largest data set available so far for Pancrustacea, consisting of 100 complete (or almost complete) sequences of mitochondrial genomes. After removal of unalignable sequence regions and highly rearranged genomes, we used nucleotide and inferred amino acid sequences of the 13 protein coding genes to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationships among major lineages of Pancrustacea. The analysis was performed with Bayesian inference, and for the amino acid sequences a new, Pancrustacea-specific, matrix of amino acid replacement was developed and used in this study. Results Two largely congruent trees were obtained from the analysis of nucleotide and amino acid datasets. In particular, the best tree obtained based on the new matrix of amino acid replacement (MtPan) was preferred over those obtained using previously available matrices (MtArt and MtRev) because of its higher likelihood score. The most remarkable result is the reciprocal paraphyly of Hexapoda and Crustacea, with some lineages of crustaceans (namely the Malacostraca, Cephalocarida and, possibly, the Branchiopoda) being more closely related to the Insecta s.s. (Ectognatha) than two orders of basal hexapods, Collembola and Diplura. Our results confirm that the mitochondrial genome, unlike analyses based on morphological data or nuclear

  6. Bayesian Geostatistical Analysis and Prediction of Rhodesian Human African Trypanosomiasis

    PubMed Central

    Wardrop, Nicola A.; Atkinson, Peter M.; Gething, Peter W.; Fèvre, Eric M.; Picozzi, Kim; Kakembo, Abbas S. L.; Welburn, Susan C.

    2010-01-01

    Background The persistent spread of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) in Uganda in recent years has increased concerns of a potential overlap with the Gambian form of the disease. Recent research has aimed to increase the evidence base for targeting control measures by focusing on the environmental and climatic factors that control the spatial distribution of the disease. Objectives One recent study used simple logistic regression methods to explore the relationship between prevalence of Rhodesian HAT and several social, environmental and climatic variables in two of the most recently affected districts of Uganda, and suggested the disease had spread into the study area due to the movement of infected, untreated livestock. Here we extend this study to account for spatial autocorrelation, incorporate uncertainty in input data and model parameters and undertake predictive mapping for risk of high HAT prevalence in future. Materials and Methods Using a spatial analysis in which a generalised linear geostatistical model is used in a Bayesian framework to account explicitly for spatial autocorrelation and incorporate uncertainty in input data and model parameters we are able to demonstrate a more rigorous analytical approach, potentially resulting in more accurate parameter and significance estimates and increased predictive accuracy, thereby allowing an assessment of the validity of the livestock movement hypothesis given more robust parameter estimation and appropriate assessment of covariate effects. Results Analysis strongly supports the theory that Rhodesian HAT was imported to the study area via the movement of untreated, infected livestock from endemic areas. The confounding effect of health care accessibility on the spatial distribution of Rhodesian HAT and the linkages between the disease's distribution and minimum land surface temperature have also been confirmed via the application of these methods. Conclusions Predictive mapping indicates an

  7. Phyloproteomics: What Phylogenetic Analysis Reveals about Serum Proteomics

    PubMed Central

    Abu-Asab, Mones; Chaouchi, Mohamed; Amri, Hakima

    2008-01-01

    Phyloproteomics is a novel analytical tool that solves the issue of comparability between proteomic analyses, utilizes a total spectrum-parsing algorithm, and produces biologically meaningful classification of specimens. Phyloproteomics employs two algorithms: a new parsing algorithm (UNIPAL) and a phylogenetic algorithm (MIX). By outgroup comparison, the parsing algorithm identifies novel or vanished MS peaks and peaks signifying up or down regulated proteins and scores them as derived or ancestral. The phylogenetic algorithm uses the latter scores to produce a biologically meaningful classification of the specimens. PMID:16944935

  8. Phylogenetic and Molecular Clock Analysis of Dengue Serotype 1 and 3 from New Delhi, India

    PubMed Central

    Afreen, Nazia; Naqvi, Irshad H.; Broor, Shobha; Ahmed, Anwar; Parveen, Shama

    2015-01-01

    Dengue fever is the most prevalent arboviral disease in the tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. The present report describes molecular detection and serotyping of dengue viruses in acute phase blood samples collected from New Delhi, India. Phylogenetic and molecular clock analysis of dengue virus serotype 1 and 3 strains were also investigated. Dengue virus infection was detected in 68.87% out of 604 samples tested by RT-PCR between 2011 & 2014. Dengue serotype 1 was detected in 25.48% samples, dengue serotype 2 in 79.56% samples and dengue serotype 3 in 11.29% samples. Dengue serotype 4 was not detected. Co-infection by more than one dengue serotype was detected in 18.26% samples. Envelope gene of 29 DENV-1 and 14 DENV-3 strains were sequenced in the study. All the DENV-1 strains grouped with the American African genotype. All DENV-3 strains were found to belong to Genotype III. Nucleotide substitution rates of dengue 1 and 3 viruses were determined in the study. Time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of dengue 1 viruses was determined to be 132 years. TMRCA of DENV-3 viruses was estimated to be 149 years. Bayesian skyline plots were constructed for Indian DENV-1 and 3 strains which showed a decrease in population size since 2005 in case of DENV- 1 strains while no change was observed in recent years in case of DENV-3 strains. The study also revealed a change in the dominating serotype in Delhi, India in recent years. The study will be helpful in formulating control strategies for the outbreaks. In addition, it will also assist in tracking the movement and evolution of this emerging virus. PMID:26536458

  9. Phylogenetic analysis of β-defensin-like genes of Bothrops, Crotalus and Lachesis snakes.

    PubMed

    Correa, Poliana G; Oguiura, Nancy

    2013-07-01

    Defensins are components of the vertebrate innate immune system; they comprise a diverse group of small cationic antimicrobial peptides. Among them, β-defensins have a characteristic β-sheet-rich fold plus six conserved cysteines with particular spacing and intramolecular bonds. They have been fully studied in mammals, but there is little information about them in snakes. Using a PCR approach, we described 13 β-defensin-like sequences in Bothrops and Lachesis snakes. The genes are organized in three exons and two introns, with exception of B.atrox_defensinB_01 which has only two exons. They show high similarities in exon 1, intron 1 and intron 2, but exons 2 and 3 have undergone accelerated evolution. The theoretical translated sequences encode a pre-β-defensin-like molecule with a conserved signal peptide and a mature peptide. The signal peptides are leucine-rich and the mature β-defensin-like molecules have a size around 4.5 kDa, a net charge from +2 to +11, and the conserved cysteine motif. Phylogenetic analysis was done using maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses, and all resulted in similar topologies with slight differences. The genus Bothrops displayed two separate lineages. The reconciliation of gene trees and species tree indicated eight to nine duplications and 23 to 29 extinctions depending on the gene tree used. Our results together with previously published data indicate that the ancestral β-defensin-like gene may have three exons in vertebrates and that their evolution occurred according to a birth-and-death model. PMID:23500066

  10. Phylogenetic and Molecular Clock Analysis of Dengue Serotype 1 and 3 from New Delhi, India.

    PubMed

    Afreen, Nazia; Naqvi, Irshad H; Broor, Shobha; Ahmed, Anwar; Parveen, Shama

    2015-01-01

    Dengue fever is the most prevalent arboviral disease in the tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. The present report describes molecular detection and serotyping of dengue viruses in acute phase blood samples collected from New Delhi, India. Phylogenetic and molecular clock analysis of dengue virus serotype 1 and 3 strains were also investigated. Dengue virus infection was detected in 68.87% out of 604 samples tested by RT-PCR between 2011 & 2014. Dengue serotype 1 was detected in 25.48% samples, dengue serotype 2 in 79.56% samples and dengue serotype 3 in 11.29% samples. Dengue serotype 4 was not detected. Co-infection by more than one dengue serotype was detected in 18.26% samples. Envelope gene of 29 DENV-1 and 14 DENV-3 strains were sequenced in the study. All the DENV-1 strains grouped with the American African genotype. All DENV-3 strains were found to belong to Genotype III. Nucleotide substitution rates of dengue 1 and 3 viruses were determined in the study. Time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of dengue 1 viruses was determined to be 132 years. TMRCA of DENV-3 viruses was estimated to be 149 years. Bayesian skyline plots were constructed for Indian DENV-1 and 3 strains which showed a decrease in population size since 2005 in case of DENV- 1 strains while no change was observed in recent years in case of DENV-3 strains. The study also revealed a change in the dominating serotype in Delhi, India in recent years. The study will be helpful in formulating control strategies for the outbreaks. In addition, it will also assist in tracking the movement and evolution of this emerging virus.

  11. A multi-locus analysis of phylogenetic relationships within cheilostome bryozoans supports multiple origins of ascophoran frontal shields.

    PubMed

    Knight, Sarah; Gordon, Dennis P; Lavery, Shane D

    2011-11-01

    Phylogenetic relationships within the bryozoan order Cheilostomata are currently uncertain, with many morphological hypotheses proposed but scarcely tested by independent means of molecular analysis. This research uses DNA sequence data across five loci of both mitochondrial and nuclear origin from 91 species of cheilostome Bryozoa (34 species newly sequenced). This vastly improved the taxonomic coverage and number of loci used in a molecular analysis of this order and allowed a more in-depth look into the evolutionary history of Cheilostomata. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses of individual loci were carried out along with a partitioned multi-locus approach, plus a range of topology tests based on morphological hypotheses. Together, these provide a comprehensive set of phylogenetic analyses of the order Cheilostomata. From these results inferences are made about the evolutionary history of this order and proposed morphological hypotheses are discussed in light of the independent evidence gained from the molecular data. Infraorder Ascophorina was demonstrated to be non-monophyletic, and there appears to be multiple origins of the ascus and associated structures involved in lophophore extension. This was further supported by the lack of monophyly within each of the four ascophoran grades (acanthostegomorph/spinocystal, hippothoomorph/gymnocystal, umbonulomorph/umbonuloid, lepraliomorph/lepralioid) defined by frontal-shield morphology. Chorizopora, currently classified in the ascophoran grade Hippothoomorpha, is phylogenetically distinct from Hippothoidae, providing strong evidence for multiple origins of the gymnocystal frontal shield type. Further evidence is produced to support the morphological hypothesis of multiple umbonuloid origins of lepralioid frontal shields, using a step-wise set of topological hypothesis tests combined with examination of multi-locus phylogenies.

  12. Bayesian analysis of the flutter margin method in aeroelasticity

    DOE PAGES

    Khalil, Mohammad; Poirel, Dominique; Sarkar, Abhijit

    2016-08-27

    A Bayesian statistical framework is presented for Zimmerman and Weissenburger flutter margin method which considers the uncertainties in aeroelastic modal parameters. The proposed methodology overcomes the limitations of the previously developed least-square based estimation technique which relies on the Gaussian approximation of the flutter margin probability density function (pdf). Using the measured free-decay responses at subcritical (preflutter) airspeeds, the joint non-Gaussain posterior pdf of the modal parameters is sampled using the Metropolis–Hastings (MH) Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The posterior MCMC samples of the modal parameters are then used to obtain the flutter margin pdfs and finally the fluttermore » speed pdf. The usefulness of the Bayesian flutter margin method is demonstrated using synthetic data generated from a two-degree-of-freedom pitch-plunge aeroelastic model. The robustness of the statistical framework is demonstrated using different sets of measurement data. In conclusion, it will be shown that the probabilistic (Bayesian) approach reduces the number of test points required in providing a flutter speed estimate for a given accuracy and precision.« less

  13. Objective Bayesian fMRI analysis-a pilot study in different clinical environments.

    PubMed

    Magerkurth, Joerg; Mancini, Laura; Penny, William; Flandin, Guillaume; Ashburner, John; Micallef, Caroline; De Vita, Enrico; Daga, Pankaj; White, Mark J; Buckley, Craig; Yamamoto, Adam K; Ourselin, Sebastien; Yousry, Tarek; Thornton, John S; Weiskopf, Nikolaus

    2015-01-01

    Functional MRI (fMRI) used for neurosurgical planning delineates functionally eloquent brain areas by time-series analysis of task-induced BOLD signal changes. Commonly used frequentist statistics protect against false positive results based on a p-value threshold. In surgical planning, false negative results are equally if not more harmful, potentially masking true brain activity leading to erroneous resection of eloquent regions. Bayesian statistics provides an alternative framework, categorizing areas as activated, deactivated, non-activated or with low statistical confidence. This approach has not yet found wide clinical application partly due to the lack of a method to objectively define an effect size threshold. We implemented a Bayesian analysis framework for neurosurgical planning fMRI. It entails an automated effect-size threshold selection method for posterior probability maps accounting for inter-individual BOLD response differences, which was calibrated based on the frequentist results maps thresholded by two clinical experts. We compared Bayesian and frequentist analysis of passive-motor fMRI data from 10 healthy volunteers measured on a pre-operative 3T and an intra-operative 1.5T MRI scanner. As a clinical case study, we tested passive motor task activation in a brain tumor patient at 3T under clinical conditions. With our novel effect size threshold method, the Bayesian analysis revealed regions of all four categories in the 3T data. Activated region foci and extent were consistent with the frequentist analysis results. In the lower signal-to-noise ratio 1.5T intra-operative scanner data, Bayesian analysis provided improved brain-activation detection sensitivity compared with the frequentist analysis, albeit the spatial extents of the activations were smaller than at 3T. Bayesian analysis of fMRI data using operator-independent effect size threshold selection may improve the sensitivity and certainty of information available to guide neurosurgery.

  14. Phylogenetic Analysis of the Bifidobacterium Genus Using Glycolysis Enzyme Sequences

    PubMed Central

    Brandt, Katelyn; Barrangou, Rodolphe

    2016-01-01

    Bifidobacteria are important members of the human gastrointestinal tract that promote the establishment of a healthy microbial consortium in the gut of infants. Recent studies have established that the Bifidobacterium genus is a polymorphic phylogenetic clade, which encompasses a diversity of species and subspecies that encode a broad range of proteins implicated in complex and non-digestible carbohydrate uptake and catabolism, ranging from human breast milk oligosaccharides, to plant fibers. Recent genomic studies have created a need to properly place Bifidobacterium species in a phylogenetic tree. Current approaches, based on core-genome analyses come at the cost of intensive sequencing and demanding analytical processes. Here, we propose a typing method based on sequences of glycolysis genes and the proteins they encode, to provide insights into diversity, typing, and phylogeny in this complex and broad genus. We show that glycolysis genes occur broadly in these genomes, to encode the machinery necessary for the biochemical spine of the cell, and provide a robust phylogenetic marker. Furthermore, glycolytic sequences-based trees are congruent with both the classical 16S rRNA phylogeny, and core genome-based strain clustering. Furthermore, these glycolysis markers can also be used to provide insights into the adaptive evolution of this genus, especially with regards to trends toward a high GC content. This streamlined method may open new avenues for phylogenetic studies on a broad scale, given the widespread occurrence of the glycolysis pathway in bacteria, and the diversity of the sequences they encode. PMID:27242688

  15. Phylogenetic Analysis of the Bifidobacterium Genus Using Glycolysis Enzyme Sequences.

    PubMed

    Brandt, Katelyn; Barrangou, Rodolphe

    2016-01-01

    Bifidobacteria are important members of the human gastrointestinal tract that promote the establishment of a healthy microbial consortium in the gut of infants. Recent studies have established that the Bifidobacterium genus is a polymorphic phylogenetic clade, which encompasses a diversity of species and subspecies that encode a broad range of proteins implicated in complex and non-digestible carbohydrate uptake and catabolism, ranging from human breast milk oligosaccharides, to plant fibers. Recent genomic studies have created a need to properly place Bifidobacterium species in a phylogenetic tree. Current approaches, based on core-genome analyses come at the cost of intensive sequencing and demanding analytical processes. Here, we propose a typing method based on sequences of glycolysis genes and the proteins they encode, to provide insights into diversity, typing, and phylogeny in this complex and broad genus. We show that glycolysis genes occur broadly in these genomes, to encode the machinery necessary for the biochemical spine of the cell, and provide a robust phylogenetic marker. Furthermore, glycolytic sequences-based trees are congruent with both the classical 16S rRNA phylogeny, and core genome-based strain clustering. Furthermore, these glycolysis markers can also be used to provide insights into the adaptive evolution of this genus, especially with regards to trends toward a high GC content. This streamlined method may open new avenues for phylogenetic studies on a broad scale, given the widespread occurrence of the glycolysis pathway in bacteria, and the diversity of the sequences they encode. PMID:27242688

  16. Serologic and hexon phylogenetic analysis of ruminant adenoviruses

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The objectives of this study were to determine the antigenic relationship among ruminant adenoviruses and determine their phylogenetic relationship based on the deduced hexon gene amino acid sequence. Results of reciprocal cross-neutralization tests demonstrated antigenic relationships in either on...

  17. A Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, Robert M.; Rodriguez, Daniel Taylor

    2012-01-01

    1. A Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data containing covariates of species occurrence and species detection probabilities is usually completed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in conjunction with software programs that can implement those methods for any statistical model, not just site-occupancy models. Although these software programs are quite flexible, considerable experience is often required to specify a model and to initialize the Markov chain so that summaries of the posterior distribution can be estimated efficiently and accurately. 2. As an alternative to these programs, we develop a Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data that include covariates of species occurrence and species detection probabilities. This Gibbs sampler is based on a class of site-occupancy models in which probabilities of species occurrence and detection are specified as probit-regression functions of site- and survey-specific covariate measurements. 3. To illustrate the Gibbs sampler, we analyse site-occupancy data of the blue hawker, Aeshna cyanea (Odonata, Aeshnidae), a common dragonfly species in Switzerland. Our analysis includes a comparison of results based on Bayesian and classical (non-Bayesian) methods of inference. We also provide code (based on the R software program) for conducting Bayesian and classical analyses of site-occupancy data.

  18. Ultrametric networks: a new tool for phylogenetic analysis

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The large majority of optimization problems related to the inference of distance‐based trees used in phylogenetic analysis and classification is known to be intractable. One noted exception is found within the realm of ultrametric distances. The introduction of ultrametric trees in phylogeny was inspired by a model of evolution driven by the postulate of a molecular clock, now dismissed, whereby phylogeny could be represented by a weighted tree in which the sum of the weights of the edges separating any given leaf from the root is the same for all leaves. Both, molecular clocks and rooted ultrametric trees, fell out of fashion as credible representations of evolutionary change. At the same time, ultrametric dendrograms have shown good potential for purposes of classification in so far as they have proven to provide good approximations for additive trees. Most of these approximations are still intractable, but the problem of finding the nearest ultrametric distance matrix to a given distance matrix with respect to the L∞ distance has been long known to be solvable in polynomial time, the solution being incarnated in any minimum spanning tree for the weighted graph subtending to the matrix. Results This paper expands this subdominant ultrametric perspective by studying ultrametric networks, consisting of the collection of all edges involved in some minimum spanning tree. It is shown that, for a graph with n vertices, the construction of such a network can be carried out by a simple algorithm in optimal time O(n2) which is faster by a factor of n than the direct adaptation of the classical O(n3) paradigm by Warshall for computing the transitive closure of a graph. This algorithm, called UltraNet, will be shown to be easily adapted to compute relaxed networks and to support the introduction of artificial points to reduce the maximum distance between vertices in a pair. Finally, a few experiments will be discussed to demonstrate the applicability of

  19. Spatial Dependence and Heterogeneity in Bayesian Factor Analysis: A Cross-National Investigation of Schwartz Values

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stakhovych, Stanislav; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.; Wedel, Michel

    2012-01-01

    In this article, we present a Bayesian spatial factor analysis model. We extend previous work on confirmatory factor analysis by including geographically distributed latent variables and accounting for heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation. The simulation study shows excellent recovery of the model parameters and demonstrates the consequences…

  20. Bilateral Chondroepitrochlearis Muscle: Case Report, Phylogenetic Analysis, and Clinical Significance.

    PubMed

    Palagama, Sujeewa P W; Tedman, Raymond A; Barton, Matthew J; Forwood, Mark R

    2016-01-01

    Anomalous muscular variants of pectoralis major have been reported on several occasions in the medical literature. Among them, chondroepitrochlearis is one of the rarest. Therefore, this study aims to provide a comprehensive description of its anatomy and subsequent clinical significance, along with its phylogenetic importance in pectoral muscle evolution with regard to primate posture. The authors suggest a more appropriate name to better reflect its proximal attachment to the costochondral junction and distal attachment to the epicondyle of humerus, as "chondroepicondylaris"; in addition, we suggest a new theory of phylogenetic significance to explain the twisting of pectoralis major tendon in primates that may have occurred with their adoption to bipedalism and arboreal lifestyle. Finally, the clinical significance of this aberrant muscle is elaborated as a cause of potential neurovascular entrapment and as a possible hurdle during axillary surgeries (i.e., mastectomy). PMID:27242928

  1. Bilateral Chondroepitrochlearis Muscle: Case Report, Phylogenetic Analysis, and Clinical Significance

    PubMed Central

    Palagama, Sujeewa P. W.; Tedman, Raymond A.; Barton, Matthew J.; Forwood, Mark R.

    2016-01-01

    Anomalous muscular variants of pectoralis major have been reported on several occasions in the medical literature. Among them, chondroepitrochlearis is one of the rarest. Therefore, this study aims to provide a comprehensive description of its anatomy and subsequent clinical significance, along with its phylogenetic importance in pectoral muscle evolution with regard to primate posture. The authors suggest a more appropriate name to better reflect its proximal attachment to the costochondral junction and distal attachment to the epicondyle of humerus, as “chondroepicondylaris”; in addition, we suggest a new theory of phylogenetic significance to explain the twisting of pectoralis major tendon in primates that may have occurred with their adoption to bipedalism and arboreal lifestyle. Finally, the clinical significance of this aberrant muscle is elaborated as a cause of potential neurovascular entrapment and as a possible hurdle during axillary surgeries (i.e., mastectomy). PMID:27242928

  2. Pooled Bayesian meta-analysis of two Polish studies on radiation-induced cancers.

    PubMed

    Fornalski, Krzysztof W

    2015-11-01

    The robust Bayesian regression method was applied to perform meta-analysis of two independent studies on influence of low ionising radiation doses on the occurrence of fatal cancers. The re-analysed data come from occupational exposure analysis of nuclear workers in Świerk (Poland) and from ecological study of cancer risk from natural background radiation in Poland. Such two different types of data were analysed, and three popular models were tested: constant, linear and quadratic dose-response dependencies. The Bayesian model selection algorithm was used for all models. The Bayesian statistics clearly indicates that the popular linear no-threshold (LNT) assumption is not valid for presented cancer risks in the range of low doses of ionising radiation. The subject of LNT hypothesis use in radiation risk prediction and assessment is also discussed. PMID:25956788

  3. Phylogenetic analysis of mammalian maximal oxygen consumption during exercise.

    PubMed

    Dlugosz, Elizabeth M; Chappell, Mark A; Meek, Thomas H; Szafranska, Paulina A; Zub, Karol; Konarzewski, Marek; Jones, James H; Bicudo, J Eduardo P W; Nespolo, Roberto F; Careau, Vincent; Garland, Theodore

    2013-12-15

    We compiled published values of mammalian maximum oxygen consumption during exercise ( ) and supplemented these data with new measurements of for the largest rodent (capybara), 20 species of smaller-bodied rodents, two species of weasels and one small marsupial. Many of the new data were obtained with running-wheel respirometers instead of the treadmill systems used in most previous measurements of mammalian . We used both conventional and phylogenetically informed allometric regression models to analyze of 77 'species' (including subspecies or separate populations within species) in relation to body size, phylogeny, diet and measurement method. Both body mass and allometrically mass-corrected showed highly significant phylogenetic signals (i.e. related species tended to resemble each other). The Akaike information criterion corrected for sample size was used to compare 27 candidate models predicting (all of which included body mass). In addition to mass, the two best-fitting models (cumulative Akaike weight=0.93) included dummy variables coding for three species previously shown to have high (pronghorn, horse and a bat), and incorporated a transformation of the phylogenetic branch lengths under an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model of residual variation (thus indicating phylogenetic signal in the residuals). We found no statistical difference between wheel- and treadmill-elicited values, and diet had no predictive ability for . Averaged across all models, the allometric scaling exponent was 0.839, with 95% confidence limits of 0.795 and 0.883, which does not provide support for a scaling exponent of 0.67, 0.75 or unity. PMID:24031059

  4. Many-core algorithms for statistical phylogenetics

    PubMed Central

    Suchard, Marc A.; Rambaut, Andrew

    2009-01-01

    Motivation: Statistical phylogenetics is computationally intensive, resulting in considerable attention meted on techniques for parallelization. Codon-based models allow for independent rates of synonymous and replacement substitutions and have the potential to more adequately model the process of protein-coding sequence evolution with a resulting increase in phylogenetic accuracy. Unfortunately, due to the high number of codon states, computational burden has largely thwarted phylogenetic reconstruction under codon models, particularly at the genomic-scale. Here, we describe novel algorithms and methods for evaluating phylogenies under arbitrary molecular evolutionary models on graphics processing units (GPUs), making use of the large number of processing cores to efficiently parallelize calculations even for large state-size models. Results: We implement the approach in an existing Bayesian framework and apply the algorithms to estimating the phylogeny of 62 complete mitochondrial genomes of carnivores under a 60-state codon model. We see a near 90-fold speed increase over an optimized CPU-based computation and a >140-fold increase over the currently available implementation, making this the first practical use of codon models for phylogenetic inference over whole mitochondrial or microorganism genomes. Availability and implementation: Source code provided in BEAGLE: Broad-platform Evolutionary Analysis General Likelihood Evaluator, a cross-platform/processor library for phylogenetic likelihood computation (http://beagle-lib.googlecode.com/). We employ a BEAGLE-implementation using the Bayesian phylogenetics framework BEAST (http://beast.bio.ed.ac.uk/). Contact: msuchard@ucla.edu; a.rambaut@ed.ac.uk PMID:19369496

  5. Phylogenetic analysis in Myrcia section Aulomyrcia and inferences on plant diversity in the Atlantic rainforest

    PubMed Central

    Staggemeier, Vanessa Graziele; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola; Forest, Félix; Lucas, Eve

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aims Myrcia section Aulomyrcia includes ∼120 species that are endemic to the Neotropics and disjunctly distributed in the moist Amazon and Atlantic coastal forests of Brazil. This paper presents the first comprehensive phylogenetic study of this group and this phylogeny is used as a basis to evaluate recent classification systems and to test alternative hypotheses associated with the history of this clade. Methods Fifty-three taxa were sampled out of the 120 species currently recognized, plus 40 outgroup taxa, for one nuclear marker (ribosomal internal transcribed spacer) and four plastid markers (psbA-trnH, trnL-trnF, trnQ-rpS16 and ndhF). The relationships were reconstructed based on Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses. Additionally, a likelihood approach, ‘geographic state speciation and extinction’, was used to estimate region- dependent rates of speciation, extinction and dispersal, comparing historically climatic stable areas (refugia) and unstable areas. Key Results Maximum likelihood and Bayesian inferences indicate that Myrcia and Marlierea are polyphyletic, and the internal groupings recovered are characterized by combinations of morphological characters. Phylogenetic relationships support a link between Amazonian and north-eastern species and between north-eastern and south-eastern species. Lower extinction rates within glacial refugia suggest that these areas were important in maintaining diversity in the Atlantic forest biodiversity hotspot. Conclusions This study provides a robust phylogenetic framework to address important ecological questions for Myrcia s.l. within an evolutionary context, and supports the need to unite taxonomically the two traditional genera Myrcia and Marlierea in an expanded Myrcia s.l. Furthermore, this study offers valuable insights into the diversification of plant species in the highly impacted Atlantic forest of South America; evidence is presented that the lowest extinction rates are found inside

  6. A Bayesian Analysis of the Ages of Four Open Clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeffery, Elizabeth J.; von Hippel, Ted; van Dyk, David A.; Stenning, David C.; Robinson, Elliot; Stein, Nathan; Jefferys, William H.

    2016-09-01

    In this paper we apply a Bayesian technique to determine the best fit of stellar evolution models to find the main sequence turn-off age and other cluster parameters of four intermediate-age open clusters: NGC 2360, NGC 2477, NGC 2660, and NGC 3960. Our algorithm utilizes a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique to fit these various parameters, objectively finding the best-fit isochrone for each cluster. The result is a high-precision isochrone fit. We compare these results with the those of traditional “by-eye” isochrone fitting methods. By applying this Bayesian technique to NGC 2360, NGC 2477, NGC 2660, and NGC 3960, we determine the ages of these clusters to be 1.35 ± 0.05, 1.02 ± 0.02, 1.64 ± 0.04, and 0.860 ± 0.04 Gyr, respectively. The results of this paper continue our effort to determine cluster ages to a higher precision than that offered by these traditional methods of isochrone fitting.

  7. OBJECTIVE BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF ''ON/OFF'' MEASUREMENTS

    SciTech Connect

    Casadei, Diego

    2015-01-01

    In high-energy astrophysics, it is common practice to account for the background overlaid with counts from the source of interest with the help of auxiliary measurements carried out by pointing off-source. In this ''on/off'' measurement, one knows the number of photons detected while pointing toward the source, the number of photons collected while pointing away from the source, and how to estimate the background counts in the source region from the flux observed in the auxiliary measurements. For very faint sources, the number of photons detected is so low that the approximations that hold asymptotically are not valid. On the other hand, an analytical solution exists for the Bayesian statistical inference, which is valid at low and high counts. Here we illustrate the objective Bayesian solution based on the reference posterior and compare the result with the approach very recently proposed by Knoetig, and discuss its most delicate points. In addition, we propose to compute the significance of the excess with respect to the background-only expectation with a method that is able to account for any uncertainty on the background and is valid for any photon count. This method is compared to the widely used significance formula by Li and Ma, which is based on asymptotic properties.

  8. S-PLUS Library For Nonlinear Bayesian Regression Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Heasler, Patrick G. ); Anderson, Kevin K. ); Hylden, Jeff L. )

    2002-09-25

    This document describes a library of Splus functions used for nonlinear Bayesian regression in general and IR estimation in particular. This library has been developed to solve a general class of problems described by the nonlinear regression model: Y = F (beta,data)+ E where Y represents a vector of measurements, and F(beta,data) represents a Splus function that has been constructed to describe the measurements. The function F(beta,data) depends upon beta, a vector of parameters to be estimated, while data$ is an Splus object containing any other information needed by the model. The errors, E, are assumed to be independent, normal, unbiased and to have known standard deviations of stdev(E) = sd.E. The components in beta are split into two groups; estimation parameters and nuisance parameters. The Bayesian prior on the estimation parameters will generally be non-informative, while the prior on the nuisance parameters will be constructed to reflect the information we have about them. We hope an extended beta distribution is general enough to adequately represent the information we have on them. While we expect these functions to be improved and revised, this library is mature enough to be used without major modification.

  9. Data for constructing insect genome content matrices for phylogenetic analysis and functional annotation

    PubMed Central

    Rosenfeld, Jeffrey; Foox, Jonathan; DeSalle, Rob

    2015-01-01

    Twenty one fully sequenced and well annotated insect genomes were used to construct genome content matrices for phylogenetic analysis and functional annotation of insect genomes. To examine the role of e-value cutoff in ortholog determination we used scaled e-value cutoffs and a single linkage clustering approach.. The present communication includes (1) a list of the genomes used to construct the genome content phylogenetic matrices, (2) a nexus file with the data matrices used in phylogenetic analysis, (3) a nexus file with the Newick trees generated by phylogenetic analysis, (4) an excel file listing the Core (CORE) genes and Unique (UNI) genes found in five insect groups, and (5) a figure showing a plot of consistency index (CI) versus percent of unannotated genes that are apomorphies in the data set for gene losses and gains and bar plots of gains and losses for four consistency index (CI) cutoffs. PMID:26862572

  10. Data for constructing insect genome content matrices for phylogenetic analysis and functional annotation.

    PubMed

    Rosenfeld, Jeffrey; Foox, Jonathan; DeSalle, Rob

    2016-03-01

    Twenty one fully sequenced and well annotated insect genomes were used to construct genome content matrices for phylogenetic analysis and functional annotation of insect genomes. To examine the role of e-value cutoff in ortholog determination we used scaled e-value cutoffs and a single linkage clustering approach.. The present communication includes (1) a list of the genomes used to construct the genome content phylogenetic matrices, (2) a nexus file with the data matrices used in phylogenetic analysis, (3) a nexus file with the Newick trees generated by phylogenetic analysis, (4) an excel file listing the Core (CORE) genes and Unique (UNI) genes found in five insect groups, and (5) a figure showing a plot of consistency index (CI) versus percent of unannotated genes that are apomorphies in the data set for gene losses and gains and bar plots of gains and losses for four consistency index (CI) cutoffs. PMID:26862572

  11. Calibration of crash risk models on freeways with limited real-time traffic data using Bayesian meta-analysis and Bayesian inference approach.

    PubMed

    Xu, Chengcheng; Wang, Wei; Liu, Pan; Li, Zhibin

    2015-12-01

    This study aimed to develop a real-time crash risk model with limited data in China by using Bayesian meta-analysis and Bayesian inference approach. A systematic review was first conducted by using three different Bayesian meta-analyses, including the fixed effect meta-analysis, the random effect meta-analysis, and the meta-regression. The meta-analyses provided a numerical summary of the effects of traffic variables on crash risks by quantitatively synthesizing results from previous studies. The random effect meta-analysis and the meta-regression produced a more conservative estimate for the effects of traffic variables compared with the fixed effect meta-analysis. Then, the meta-analyses results were used as informative priors for developing crash risk models with limited data. Three different meta-analyses significantly affect model fit and prediction accuracy. The model based on meta-regression can increase the prediction accuracy by about 15% as compared to the model that was directly developed with limited data. Finally, the Bayesian predictive densities analysis was used to identify the outliers in the limited data. It can further improve the prediction accuracy by 5.0%.

  12. Learning Bayesian networks from big meteorological spatial datasets. An alternative to complex network analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gutiérrez, Jose Manuel; San Martín, Daniel; Herrera, Sixto; Santiago Cofiño, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The growing availability of spatial datasets (observations, reanalysis, and regional and global climate models) demands efficient multivariate spatial modeling techniques for many problems of interest (e.g. teleconnection analysis, multi-site downscaling, etc.). Complex networks have been recently applied in this context using graphs built from pairwise correlations between the different stations (or grid boxes) forming the dataset. However, this analysis does not take into account the full dependence structure underlying the data, gien by all possible marginal and conditional dependencies among the stations, and does not allow a probabilistic analysis of the dataset. In this talk we introduce Bayesian networks as an alternative multivariate analysis and modeling data-driven technique which allows building a joint probability distribution of the stations including all relevant dependencies in the dataset. Bayesian networks is a sound machine learning technique using a graph to 1) encode the main dependencies among the variables and 2) to obtain a factorization of the joint probability distribution of the stations given by a reduced number of parameters. For a particular problem, the resulting graph provides a qualitative analysis of the spatial relationships in the dataset (alternative to complex network analysis), and the resulting model allows for a probabilistic analysis of the dataset. Bayesian networks have been widely applied in many fields, but their use in climate problems is hampered by the large number of variables (stations) involved in this field, since the complexity of the existing algorithms to learn from data the graphical structure grows nonlinearly with the number of variables. In this contribution we present a modified local learning algorithm for Bayesian networks adapted to this problem, which allows inferring the graphical structure for thousands of stations (from observations) and/or gridboxes (from model simulations) thus providing new

  13. Phylogenetic analysis of New Zealand earthworms (Oligochaeta: Megascolecidae) reveals ancient clades and cryptic taxonomic diversity.

    PubMed

    Buckley, Thomas R; James, Sam; Allwood, Julia; Bartlam, Scott; Howitt, Robyn; Prada, Diana

    2011-01-01

    We have constructed the first ever phylogeny for the New Zealand earthworm fauna (Megascolecinae and Acanthodrilinae) including representatives from other major continental regions. Bayesian and maximum likelihood phylogenetic trees were constructed from 427 base pairs from the mitochondrial large subunit (16S) rRNA gene and 661 base pairs from the nuclear large subunit (28S) rRNA gene. Within the Acanthodrilinae we were able to identify a number of well-supported clades that were restricted to continental landmasses. Estimates of nodal support for these major clades were generally high, but relationships among clades were poorly resolved. The phylogenetic analyses revealed several independent lineages in New Zealand, some of which had a comparable phylogenetic depth to monophyletic groups sampled from Madagascar, Africa, North America and Australia. These results are consistent with at least some of these clades having inhabited New Zealand since rifting from Gondwana in the Late Cretaceous. Within the New Zealand Acanthodrilinae, major clades tended to be restricted to specific regions of New Zealand, with the central North Island and Cook Strait representing major biogeographic boundaries. Our field surveys of New Zealand and subsequent identification has also revealed extensive cryptic taxonomic diversity with approximately 48 new species sampled in addition to the 199 species recognized by previous authors. Our results indicate that further survey and taxonomic work is required to establish a foundation for future biogeographic and ecological research on this vitally important component of the New Zealand biota.

  14. An Automated Bayesian Framework for Integrative Gene Expression Analysis and Predictive Medicine

    PubMed Central

    Parikh, Neena; Zollanvari, Amin; Alterovitz, Gil

    2012-01-01

    Motivation This work constructs a closed loop Bayesian Network framework for predictive medicine via integrative analysis of publicly available gene expression findings pertaining to various diseases. Results: An automated pipeline was successfully constructed. Integrative models were made based on gene expression data obtained from GEO experiments relating to four different diseases using Bayesian statistical methods. Many of these models demonstrated a high level of accuracy and predictive ability. The approach described in this paper can be applied to any complex disorder and can include any number and type of genome-scale studies. PMID:22779059

  15. Analysis of Acorus calamus chloroplast genome and its phylogenetic implications.

    PubMed

    Goremykin, Vadim V; Holland, Barbara; Hirsch-Ernst, Karen I; Hellwig, Frank H

    2005-09-01

    Determining the phylogenetic relationships among the major lines of angiosperms is a long-standing problem, yet the uncertainty as to the phylogenetic affinity of these lines persists. While a number of studies have suggested that the ANITA (Amborella-Nymphaeales-Illiciales-Trimeniales-Aristolochiales) grade is basal within angiosperms, studies of complete chloroplast genome sequences also suggested an alternative tree, wherein the line leading to the grasses branches first among the angiosperms. To improve taxon sampling in the existing chloroplast genome data, we sequenced the chloroplast genome of the monocot Acorus calamus. We generated a concatenated alignment (89,436 positions for 15 taxa), encompassing almost all sequences usable for phylogeny reconstruction within spermatophytes. The data still contain support for both the ANITA-basal and grasses-basal hypotheses. Using simulations we can show that were the ANITA-basal hypothesis true, parsimony (and distance-based methods with many models) would be expected to fail to recover it. The self-evident explanation for this failure appears to be a long-branch attraction (LBA) between the clade of grasses and the out-group. However, this LBA cannot explain the discrepancies observed between tree topology recovered using the maximum likelihood (ML) method and the topologies recovered using the parsimony and distance-based methods when grasses are deleted. Furthermore, the fact that neither maximum parsimony nor distance methods consistently recover the ML tree, when according to the simulations they would be expected to, when the out-group (Pinus) is deleted, suggests that either the generating tree is not correct or the best symmetric model is misspecified (or both). We demonstrate that the tree recovered under ML is extremely sensitive to model specification and that the best symmetric model is misspecified. Hence, we remain agnostic regarding phylogenetic relationships among basal angiosperm lineages.

  16. Phylogenetic analysis of molecular and morphological data highlights uncertainty in the relationships of fossil and living species of Elopomorpha (Actinopterygii: Teleostei).

    PubMed

    Dornburg, Alex; Friedman, Matt; Near, Thomas J

    2015-08-01

    Elopomorpha is one of the three main clades of living teleost fishes and includes a range of disparate lineages including eels, tarpons, bonefishes, and halosaurs. Elopomorphs were among the first groups of fishes investigated using Hennigian phylogenetic methods and continue to be the object of intense phylogenetic scrutiny due to their economic significance, diversity, and crucial evolutionary status as the sister group of all other teleosts. While portions of the phylogenetic backbone for Elopomorpha are consistent between studies, the relationships among Albula, Pterothrissus, Notacanthiformes, and Anguilliformes remain contentious and difficult to evaluate. This lack of phylogenetic resolution is problematic as fossil lineages are often described and placed taxonomically based on an assumed sister group relationship between Albula and Pterothrissus. In addition, phylogenetic studies using morphological data that sample elopomorph fossil lineages often do not include notacanthiform or anguilliform lineages, potentially introducing a bias toward interpreting fossils as members of the common stem of Pterothrissus and Albula. Here we provide a phylogenetic analysis of DNA sequences sampled from multiple nuclear genes that include representative taxa from Albula, Pterothrissus, Notacanthiformes and Anguilliformes. We integrate our molecular dataset with a morphological character matrix that spans both living and fossil elopomorph lineages. Our results reveal substantial uncertainty in the placement of Pterothrissus as well as all sampled fossil lineages, questioning the stability of the taxonomy of fossil Elopomorpha. However, despite topological uncertainty, our integration of fossil lineages into a Bayesian time calibrated framework provides divergence time estimates for the clade that are consistent with previously published age estimates based on the elopomorph fossil record and molecular estimates resulting from traditional node-dating methods.

  17. Phylogenetic analysis of an anaerobic, trichlorobenzene-transforming microbial consortium

    SciTech Connect

    Wintzingerode, F. von; Goebel, U.B.; Selent, B.; Hegemann, W.

    1999-01-01

    A culture-independent phylogenetic survey for an anaerobic trichlorobenzene-transforming microbial community was carried out. Small-subunit rRNA genes were PCR amplified from community DNA by using primers specific for Bacteria or Euryarchaeota and were subsequently cloned. Application of a new hybridization-based screening approach revealed 51 bacterial clone families, one of which was closely related to dechlorinating Dehalobacter species. Several clone sequences clustered to rDNA sequences obtained from a molecular study of an anaerobic aquifer contaminated with hydrocarbons and chlorinated solvents.

  18. Bayesian Analysis of Foraging by Pigeons (Columba livia)

    PubMed Central

    Killeen, Peter R.; Palombo, Gina-Marie; Gottlob, Lawrence R.; Beam, Jon

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the authors combine models of timing and Bayesian revision of information concerning patch quality to predict foraging behavior. Pigeons earned food by pecking on 2 keys (patches) in an experimental chamber. Food was primed for only 1 of the patches on each trial. There was a constant probability of finding food in a primed patch, but it accumulated only while the animals searched there. The optimal strategy was to choose the better patch first and remain for a fixed duration, thereafter alternating evenly between the patches. Pigeons were nonoptimal in 3 ways: (a) they departed too early, (b) their departure times were variable, and (c) they were biased in their choices after initial departure. The authors review various explanations of these data. PMID:8865614

  19. Variational Bayesian causal connectivity analysis for fMRI.

    PubMed

    Luessi, Martin; Babacan, S Derin; Molina, Rafael; Booth, James R; Katsaggelos, Aggelos K

    2014-01-01

    The ability to accurately estimate effective connectivity among brain regions from neuroimaging data could help answering many open questions in neuroscience. We propose a method which uses causality to obtain a measure of effective connectivity from fMRI data. The method uses a vector autoregressive model for the latent variables describing neuronal activity in combination with a linear observation model based on a convolution with a hemodynamic response function. Due to the employed modeling, it is possible to efficiently estimate all latent variables of the model using a variational Bayesian inference algorithm. The computational efficiency of the method enables us to apply it to large scale problems with high sampling rates and several hundred regions of interest. We use a comprehensive empirical evaluation with synthetic and real fMRI data to evaluate the performance of our method under various conditions.

  20. Variational Bayesian causal connectivity analysis for fMRI

    PubMed Central

    Luessi, Martin; Babacan, S. Derin; Molina, Rafael; Booth, James R.; Katsaggelos, Aggelos K.

    2014-01-01

    The ability to accurately estimate effective connectivity among brain regions from neuroimaging data could help answering many open questions in neuroscience. We propose a method which uses causality to obtain a measure of effective connectivity from fMRI data. The method uses a vector autoregressive model for the latent variables describing neuronal activity in combination with a linear observation model based on a convolution with a hemodynamic response function. Due to the employed modeling, it is possible to efficiently estimate all latent variables of the model using a variational Bayesian inference algorithm. The computational efficiency of the method enables us to apply it to large scale problems with high sampling rates and several hundred regions of interest. We use a comprehensive empirical evaluation with synthetic and real fMRI data to evaluate the performance of our method under various conditions. PMID:24847244

  1. Application of a data-mining method based on Bayesian networks to lesion-deficit analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Herskovits, Edward H.; Gerring, Joan P.

    2003-01-01

    Although lesion-deficit analysis (LDA) has provided extensive information about structure-function associations in the human brain, LDA has suffered from the difficulties inherent to the analysis of spatial data, i.e., there are many more variables than subjects, and data may be difficult to model using standard distributions, such as the normal distribution. We herein describe a Bayesian method for LDA; this method is based on data-mining techniques that employ Bayesian networks to represent structure-function associations. These methods are computationally tractable, and can represent complex, nonlinear structure-function associations. When applied to the evaluation of data obtained from a study of the psychiatric sequelae of traumatic brain injury in children, this method generates a Bayesian network that demonstrates complex, nonlinear associations among lesions in the left caudate, right globus pallidus, right side of the corpus callosum, right caudate, and left thalamus, and subsequent development of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, confirming and extending our previous statistical analysis of these data. Furthermore, analysis of simulated data indicates that methods based on Bayesian networks may be more sensitive and specific for detecting associations among categorical variables than methods based on chi-square and Fisher exact statistics.

  2. Bayesian Factor Analysis as a Variable-Selection Problem: Alternative Priors and Consequences.

    PubMed

    Lu, Zhao-Hua; Chow, Sy-Miin; Loken, Eric

    2016-01-01

    Factor analysis is a popular statistical technique for multivariate data analysis. Developments in the structural equation modeling framework have enabled the use of hybrid confirmatory/exploratory approaches in which factor-loading structures can be explored relatively flexibly within a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) framework. Recently, Muthén & Asparouhov proposed a Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) approach to explore the presence of cross loadings in CFA models. We show that the issue of determining factor-loading patterns may be formulated as a Bayesian variable selection problem in which Muthén and Asparouhov's approach can be regarded as a BSEM approach with ridge regression prior (BSEM-RP). We propose another Bayesian approach, denoted herein as the Bayesian structural equation modeling with spike-and-slab prior (BSEM-SSP), which serves as a one-stage alternative to the BSEM-RP. We review the theoretical advantages and disadvantages of both approaches and compare their empirical performance relative to two modification indices-based approaches and exploratory factor analysis with target rotation. A teacher stress scale data set is used to demonstrate our approach.

  3. Monte Carlo Algorithms for a Bayesian Analysis of the Cosmic Microwave Background

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jewell, Jeffrey B.; Eriksen, H. K.; ODwyer, I. J.; Wandelt, B. D.; Gorski, K.; Knox, L.; Chu, M.

    2006-01-01

    A viewgraph presentation on the review of Bayesian approach to Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) analysis, numerical implementation with Gibbs sampling, a summary of application to WMAP I and work in progress with generalizations to polarization, foregrounds, asymmetric beams, and 1/f noise is given.

  4. Application of a data-mining method based on Bayesian networks to lesion-deficit analysis.

    PubMed

    Herskovits, Edward H; Gerring, Joan P

    2003-08-01

    Although lesion-deficit analysis (LDA) has provided extensive information about structure-function associations in the human brain, LDA has suffered from the difficulties inherent to the analysis of spatial data, i.e., there are many more variables than subjects, and data may be difficult to model using standard distributions, such as the normal distribution. We herein describe a Bayesian method for LDA; this method is based on data-mining techniques that employ Bayesian networks to represent structure-function associations. These methods are computationally tractable, and can represent complex, nonlinear structure-function associations. When applied to the evaluation of data obtained from a study of the psychiatric sequelae of traumatic brain injury in children, this method generates a Bayesian network that demonstrates complex, nonlinear associations among lesions in the left caudate, right globus pallidus, right side of the corpus callosum, right caudate, and left thalamus, and subsequent development of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, confirming and extending our previous statistical analysis of these data. Furthermore, analysis of simulated data indicates that methods based on Bayesian networks may be more sensitive and specific for detecting associations among categorical variables than methods based on chi-square and Fisher exact statistics. PMID:12948721

  5. Using Discrete Loss Functions and Weighted Kappa for Classification: An Illustration Based on Bayesian Network Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zwick, Rebecca; Lenaburg, Lubella

    2009-01-01

    In certain data analyses (e.g., multiple discriminant analysis and multinomial log-linear modeling), classification decisions are made based on the estimated posterior probabilities that individuals belong to each of several distinct categories. In the Bayesian network literature, this type of classification is often accomplished by assigning…

  6. Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis for Unordered Categorical Outcomes with Incomplete Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schmid, Christopher H.; Trikalinos, Thomas A.; Olkin, Ingram

    2014-01-01

    We develop a Bayesian multinomial network meta-analysis model for unordered (nominal) categorical outcomes that allows for partially observed data in which exact event counts may not be known for each category. This model properly accounts for correlations of counts in mutually exclusive categories and enables proper comparison and ranking of…

  7. Calibration of Uncertainty Analysis of the SWAT Model Using Genetic Algorithms and Bayesian Model Averaging

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In this paper, the Genetic Algorithms (GA) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) were combined to simultaneously conduct calibration and uncertainty analysis for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). In this hybrid method, several SWAT models with different structures are first selected; next GA i...

  8. Family Background Variables as Instruments for Education in Income Regressions: A Bayesian Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoogerheide, Lennart; Block, Joern H.; Thurik, Roy

    2012-01-01

    The validity of family background variables instrumenting education in income regressions has been much criticized. In this paper, we use data from the 2004 German Socio-Economic Panel and Bayesian analysis to analyze to what degree violations of the strict validity assumption affect the estimation results. We show that, in case of moderate direct…

  9. Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Cronbach's Coefficient Alpha to Evaluate Informative Hypotheses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Okada, Kensuke

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a new method to evaluate informative hypotheses for meta-analysis of Cronbach's coefficient alpha using a Bayesian approach. The coefficient alpha is one of the most widely used reliability indices. In meta-analyses of reliability, researchers typically form specific informative hypotheses beforehand, such as "alpha of…

  10. Applying Bayesian Modeling and Receiver Operating Characteristic Methodologies for Test Utility Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Qiu; Diemer, Matthew A.; Maier, Kimberly S.

    2013-01-01

    This study integrated Bayesian hierarchical modeling and receiver operating characteristic analysis (BROCA) to evaluate how interest strength (IS) and interest differentiation (ID) predicted low–socioeconomic status (SES) youth's interest-major congruence (IMC). Using large-scale Kuder Career Search online-assessment data, this study fit three…

  11. Bayesian Factor Analysis as a Variable-Selection Problem: Alternative Priors and Consequences.

    PubMed

    Lu, Zhao-Hua; Chow, Sy-Miin; Loken, Eric

    2016-01-01

    Factor analysis is a popular statistical technique for multivariate data analysis. Developments in the structural equation modeling framework have enabled the use of hybrid confirmatory/exploratory approaches in which factor-loading structures can be explored relatively flexibly within a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) framework. Recently, Muthén & Asparouhov proposed a Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) approach to explore the presence of cross loadings in CFA models. We show that the issue of determining factor-loading patterns may be formulated as a Bayesian variable selection problem in which Muthén and Asparouhov's approach can be regarded as a BSEM approach with ridge regression prior (BSEM-RP). We propose another Bayesian approach, denoted herein as the Bayesian structural equation modeling with spike-and-slab prior (BSEM-SSP), which serves as a one-stage alternative to the BSEM-RP. We review the theoretical advantages and disadvantages of both approaches and compare their empirical performance relative to two modification indices-based approaches and exploratory factor analysis with target rotation. A teacher stress scale data set is used to demonstrate our approach. PMID:27314566

  12. Symptoms of Depression and Challenging Behaviours in People with Intellectual Disability: A Bayesian Analysis. Brief Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tsiouris, John; Mann, Rachel; Patti, Paul; Sturmey, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Clinicians need to know the likelihood of a condition given a positive or negative diagnostic test. In this study a Bayesian analysis of the Clinical Behavior Checklist for Persons with Intellectual Disabilities (CBCPID) to predict depression in people with intellectual disability was conducted. The CBCPID was administered to 92 adults with…

  13. Phylogenetic analysis of ruminant Theileria spp. from China based on 28S ribosomal RNA gene.

    PubMed

    Gou, Huitian; Guan, Guiquan; Ma, Miling; Liu, Aihong; Liu, Zhijie; Xu, Zongke; Ren, Qiaoyun; Li, Youquan; Yang, Jifei; Chen, Ze; Yin, Hong; Luo, Jianxun

    2013-10-01

    Species identification using DNA sequences is the basis for DNA taxonomy. In this study, we sequenced the ribosomal large-subunit RNA gene sequences (3,037-3,061 bp) in length of 13 Chinese Theileria stocks that were infective to cattle and sheep. The complete 28S rRNA gene is relatively difficult to amplify and its conserved region is not important for phylogenetic study. Therefore, we selected the D2-D3 region from the complete 28S rRNA sequences for phylogenetic analysis. Our analyses of 28S rRNA gene sequences showed that the 28S rRNA was useful as a phylogenetic marker for analyzing the relationships among Theileria spp. in ruminants. In addition, the D2-D3 region was a short segment that could be used instead of the whole 28S rRNA sequence during the phylogenetic analysis of Theileria, and it may be an ideal DNA barcode.

  14. Evolution of climatic niche specialization: a phylogenetic analysis in amphibians.

    PubMed

    Bonetti, Maria Fernanda; Wiens, John J

    2014-11-22

    The evolution of climatic niche specialization has important implications for many topics in ecology, evolution and conservation. The climatic niche reflects the set of temperature and precipitation conditions where a species can occur. Thus, specialization to a limited set of climatic conditions can be important for understanding patterns of biogeography, species richness, community structure, allopatric speciation, spread of invasive species and responses to climate change. Nevertheless, the factors that determine climatic niche width (level of specialization) remain poorly explored. Here, we test whether species that occur in more extreme climates are more highly specialized for those conditions, and whether there are trade-offs between niche widths on different climatic niche axes (e.g. do species that tolerate a broad range of temperatures tolerate only a limited range of precipitation regimes?). We test these hypotheses in amphibians, using phylogenetic comparative methods and global-scale datasets, including 2712 species with both climatic and phylogenetic data. Our results do not support either hypothesis. Rather than finding narrower niches in more extreme environments, niches tend to be narrower on one end of a climatic gradient but wider on the other. We also find that temperature and precipitation niche breadths are positively related, rather than showing trade-offs. Finally, our results suggest that most amphibian species occur in relatively warm and dry environments and have relatively narrow climatic niche widths on both of these axes. Thus, they may be especially imperilled by anthropogenic climate change.

  15. Evolution of climatic niche specialization: a phylogenetic analysis in amphibians

    PubMed Central

    Bonetti, Maria Fernanda; Wiens, John J.

    2014-01-01

    The evolution of climatic niche specialization has important implications for many topics in ecology, evolution and conservation. The climatic niche reflects the set of temperature and precipitation conditions where a species can occur. Thus, specialization to a limited set of climatic conditions can be important for understanding patterns of biogeography, species richness, community structure, allopatric speciation, spread of invasive species and responses to climate change. Nevertheless, the factors that determine climatic niche width (level of specialization) remain poorly explored. Here, we test whether species that occur in more extreme climates are more highly specialized for those conditions, and whether there are trade-offs between niche widths on different climatic niche axes (e.g. do species that tolerate a broad range of temperatures tolerate only a limited range of precipitation regimes?). We test these hypotheses in amphibians, using phylogenetic comparative methods and global-scale datasets, including 2712 species with both climatic and phylogenetic data. Our results do not support either hypothesis. Rather than finding narrower niches in more extreme environments, niches tend to be narrower on one end of a climatic gradient but wider on the other. We also find that temperature and precipitation niche breadths are positively related, rather than showing trade-offs. Finally, our results suggest that most amphibian species occur in relatively warm and dry environments and have relatively narrow climatic niche widths on both of these axes. Thus, they may be especially imperilled by anthropogenic climate change. PMID:25274369

  16. Evolution of climatic niche specialization: a phylogenetic analysis in amphibians.

    PubMed

    Bonetti, Maria Fernanda; Wiens, John J

    2014-11-22

    The evolution of climatic niche specialization has important implications for many topics in ecology, evolution and conservation. The climatic niche reflects the set of temperature and precipitation conditions where a species can occur. Thus, specialization to a limited set of climatic conditions can be important for understanding patterns of biogeography, species richness, community structure, allopatric speciation, spread of invasive species and responses to climate change. Nevertheless, the factors that determine climatic niche width (level of specialization) remain poorly explored. Here, we test whether species that occur in more extreme climates are more highly specialized for those conditions, and whether there are trade-offs between niche widths on different climatic niche axes (e.g. do species that tolerate a broad range of temperatures tolerate only a limited range of precipitation regimes?). We test these hypotheses in amphibians, using phylogenetic comparative methods and global-scale datasets, including 2712 species with both climatic and phylogenetic data. Our results do not support either hypothesis. Rather than finding narrower niches in more extreme environments, niches tend to be narrower on one end of a climatic gradient but wider on the other. We also find that temperature and precipitation niche breadths are positively related, rather than showing trade-offs. Finally, our results suggest that most amphibian species occur in relatively warm and dry environments and have relatively narrow climatic niche widths on both of these axes. Thus, they may be especially imperilled by anthropogenic climate change. PMID:25274369

  17. Candidate gene association study in pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia evaluated by Bayesian network based Bayesian multilevel analysis of relevance

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background We carried out a candidate gene association study in pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) to identify possible genetic risk factors in a Hungarian population. Methods The results were evaluated with traditional statistical methods and with our newly developed Bayesian network based Bayesian multilevel analysis of relevance (BN-BMLA) method. We collected genomic DNA and clinical data from 543 children, who underwent chemotherapy due to ALL, and 529 healthy controls. Altogether 66 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 19 candidate genes were genotyped. Results With logistic regression, we identified 6 SNPs in the ARID5B and IKZF1 genes associated with increased risk to B-cell ALL, and two SNPs in the STAT3 gene, which decreased the risk to hyperdiploid ALL. Because the associated SNPs were in linkage in each gene, these associations corresponded to one signal per gene. The odds ratio (OR) associated with the tag SNPs were: OR = 1.69, P = 2.22x10-7 for rs4132601 (IKZF1), OR = 1.53, P = 1.95x10-5 for rs10821936 (ARID5B) and OR = 0.64, P = 2.32x10-4 for rs12949918 (STAT3). With the BN-BMLA we confirmed the findings of the frequentist-based method and received additional information about the nature of the relations between the SNPs and the disease. E.g. the rs10821936 in ARID5B and rs17405722 in STAT3 showed a weak interaction, and in case of T-cell lineage sample group, the gender showed a weak interaction with three SNPs in three genes. In the hyperdiploid patient group the BN-BMLA detected a strong interaction among SNPs in the NOTCH1, STAT1, STAT3 and BCL2 genes. Evaluating the survival rate of the patients with ALL, the BN-BMLA showed that besides risk groups and subtypes, genetic variations in the BAX and CEBPA genes might also influence the probability of survival of the patients. Conclusions In the present study we confirmed the roles of genetic variations in ARID5B and IKZF1 in the susceptibility to B-cell ALL

  18. A fully Bayesian before-after analysis of permeable friction course (PFC) pavement wet weather safety.

    PubMed

    Buddhavarapu, Prasad; Smit, Andre F; Prozzi, Jorge A

    2015-07-01

    Permeable friction course (PFC), a porous hot-mix asphalt, is typically applied to improve wet weather safety on high-speed roadways in Texas. In order to warrant expensive PFC construction, a statistical evaluation of its safety benefits is essential. Generally, the literature on the effectiveness of porous mixes in reducing wet-weather crashes is limited and often inconclusive. In this study, the safety effectiveness of PFC was evaluated using a fully Bayesian before-after safety analysis. First, two groups of road segments overlaid with PFC and non-PFC material were identified across Texas; the non-PFC or reference road segments selected were similar to their PFC counterparts in terms of site specific features. Second, a negative binomial data generating process was assumed to model the underlying distribution of crash counts of PFC and reference road segments to perform Bayesian inference on the safety effectiveness. A data-augmentation based computationally efficient algorithm was employed for a fully Bayesian estimation. The statistical analysis shows that PFC is not effective in reducing wet weather crashes. It should be noted that the findings of this study are in agreement with the existing literature, although these studies were not based on a fully Bayesian statistical analysis. Our study suggests that the safety effectiveness of PFC road surfaces, or any other safety infrastructure, largely relies on its interrelationship with the road user. The results suggest that the safety infrastructure must be properly used to reap the benefits of the substantial investments. PMID:25897515

  19. A Pragmatic Bayesian Perspective on Correlation Analysis - The exoplanetary gravity - stellar activity case

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Figueira, P.; Faria, J. P.; Adibekyan, V. Zh.; Oshagh, M.; Santos, N. C.

    2016-05-01

    We apply the Bayesian framework to assess the presence of a correlation between two quantities. To do so, we estimate the probability distribution of the parameter of interest, ρ, characterizing the strength of the correlation. We provide an implementation of these ideas and concepts using python programming language and the pyMC module in a very short (˜ 130 lines of code, heavily commented) and user-friendly program. We used this tool to assess the presence and properties of the correlation between planetary surface gravity and stellar activity level as measured by the log( R^' }_{{HK}}) indicator. The results of the Bayesian analysis are qualitatively similar to those obtained via p-value analysis, and support the presence of a correlation in the data. The results are more robust in their derivation and more informative, revealing interesting features such as asymmetric posterior distributions or markedly different credible intervals, and allowing for a deeper exploration. We encourage the reader interested in this kind of problem to apply our code to his/her own scientific problems. The full understanding of what the Bayesian framework is can only be gained through the insight that comes by handling priors, assessing the convergence of Monte Carlo runs, and a multitude of other practical problems. We hope to contribute so that Bayesian analysis becomes a tool in the toolkit of researchers, and they understand by experience its advantages and limitations.

  20. A fully Bayesian before-after analysis of permeable friction course (PFC) pavement wet weather safety.

    PubMed

    Buddhavarapu, Prasad; Smit, Andre F; Prozzi, Jorge A

    2015-07-01

    Permeable friction course (PFC), a porous hot-mix asphalt, is typically applied to improve wet weather safety on high-speed roadways in Texas. In order to warrant expensive PFC construction, a statistical evaluation of its safety benefits is essential. Generally, the literature on the effectiveness of porous mixes in reducing wet-weather crashes is limited and often inconclusive. In this study, the safety effectiveness of PFC was evaluated using a fully Bayesian before-after safety analysis. First, two groups of road segments overlaid with PFC and non-PFC material were identified across Texas; the non-PFC or reference road segments selected were similar to their PFC counterparts in terms of site specific features. Second, a negative binomial data generating process was assumed to model the underlying distribution of crash counts of PFC and reference road segments to perform Bayesian inference on the safety effectiveness. A data-augmentation based computationally efficient algorithm was employed for a fully Bayesian estimation. The statistical analysis shows that PFC is not effective in reducing wet weather crashes. It should be noted that the findings of this study are in agreement with the existing literature, although these studies were not based on a fully Bayesian statistical analysis. Our study suggests that the safety effectiveness of PFC road surfaces, or any other safety infrastructure, largely relies on its interrelationship with the road user. The results suggest that the safety infrastructure must be properly used to reap the benefits of the substantial investments.

  1. A Pragmatic Bayesian Perspective on Correlation Analysis. The exoplanetary gravity - stellar activity case

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Figueira, P.; Faria, J. P.; Adibekyan, V. Zh.; Oshagh, M.; Santos, N. C.

    2016-11-01

    We apply the Bayesian framework to assess the presence of a correlation between two quantities. To do so, we estimate the probability distribution of the parameter of interest, ρ, characterizing the strength of the correlation. We provide an implementation of these ideas and concepts using python programming language and the pyMC module in a very short (˜ 130 lines of code, heavily commented) and user-friendly program. We used this tool to assess the presence and properties of the correlation between planetary surface gravity and stellar activity level as measured by the log(R^' }_{ {HK}}) indicator. The results of the Bayesian analysis are qualitatively similar to those obtained via p-value analysis, and support the presence of a correlation in the data. The results are more robust in their derivation and more informative, revealing interesting features such as asymmetric posterior distributions or markedly different credible intervals, and allowing for a deeper exploration. We encourage the reader interested in this kind of problem to apply our code to his/her own scientific problems. The full understanding of what the Bayesian framework is can only be gained through the insight that comes by handling priors, assessing the convergence of Monte Carlo runs, and a multitude of other practical problems. We hope to contribute so that Bayesian analysis becomes a tool in the toolkit of researchers, and they understand by experience its advantages and limitations.

  2. Bayesian dose-response analysis for epidemiological studies with complex uncertainty in dose estimation.

    PubMed

    Kwon, Deukwoo; Hoffman, F Owen; Moroz, Brian E; Simon, Steven L

    2016-02-10

    Most conventional risk analysis methods rely on a single best estimate of exposure per person, which does not allow for adjustment for exposure-related uncertainty. Here, we propose a Bayesian model averaging method to properly quantify the relationship between radiation dose and disease outcomes by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainty in estimated dose. Our Bayesian risk analysis method utilizes multiple realizations of sets (vectors) of doses generated by a two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation method that properly separates shared and unshared errors in dose estimation. The exposure model used in this work is taken from a study of the risk of thyroid nodules among a cohort of 2376 subjects who were exposed to fallout from nuclear testing in Kazakhstan. We assessed the performance of our method through an extensive series of simulations and comparisons against conventional regression risk analysis methods. When the estimated doses contain relatively small amounts of uncertainty, the Bayesian method using multiple a priori plausible draws of dose vectors gave similar results to the conventional regression-based methods of dose-response analysis. However, when large and complex mixtures of shared and unshared uncertainties are present, the Bayesian method using multiple dose vectors had significantly lower relative bias than conventional regression-based risk analysis methods and better coverage, that is, a markedly increased capability to include the true risk coefficient within the 95% credible interval of the Bayesian-based risk estimate. An evaluation of the dose-response using our method is presented for an epidemiological study of thyroid disease following radiation exposure.

  3. Competing risk models in reliability systems, a weibull distribution model with bayesian analysis approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iskandar, Ismed; Satria Gondokaryono, Yudi

    2016-02-01

    In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range

  4. Toward an ecological analysis of Bayesian inferences: how task characteristics influence responses

    PubMed Central

    Hafenbrädl, Sebastian; Hoffrage, Ulrich

    2015-01-01

    In research on Bayesian inferences, the specific tasks, with their narratives and characteristics, are typically seen as exchangeable vehicles that merely transport the structure of the problem to research participants. In the present paper, we explore whether, and possibly how, task characteristics that are usually ignored influence participants’ responses in these tasks. We focus on both quantitative dimensions of the tasks, such as their base rates, hit rates, and false-alarm rates, as well as qualitative characteristics, such as whether the task involves a norm violation or not, whether the stakes are high or low, and whether the focus is on the individual case or on the numbers. Using a data set of 19 different tasks presented to 500 different participants who provided a total of 1,773 responses, we analyze these responses in two ways: first, on the level of the numerical estimates themselves, and second, on the level of various response strategies, Bayesian and non-Bayesian, that might have produced the estimates. We identified various contingencies, and most of the task characteristics had an influence on participants’ responses. Typically, this influence has been stronger when the numerical information in the tasks was presented in terms of probabilities or percentages, compared to natural frequencies – and this effect cannot be fully explained by a higher proportion of Bayesian responses when natural frequencies were used. One characteristic that did not seem to influence participants’ response strategy was the numerical value of the Bayesian solution itself. Our exploratory study is a first step toward an ecological analysis of Bayesian inferences, and highlights new avenues for future research. PMID:26300791

  5. Phylogenetic Analysis of Seven WRKY Genes across the Palm Subtribe Attaleinae (Arecaceae) Identifies Syagrus as Sister Group of the Coconut

    PubMed Central

    Meerow, Alan W.; Noblick, Larry; Borrone, James W.; Couvreur, Thomas L. P.; Mauro-Herrera, Margarita; Hahn, William J.; Kuhn, David N.; Nakamura, Kyoko; Oleas, Nora H.; Schnell, Raymond J.

    2009-01-01

    Background The Cocoseae is one of 13 tribes of Arecaceae subfam. Arecoideae, and contains a number of palms with significant economic importance, including the monotypic and pantropical Cocos nucifera L., the coconut, the origins of which have been one of the “abominable mysteries” of palm systematics for decades. Previous studies with predominantly plastid genes weakly supported American ancestry for the coconut but ambiguous sister relationships. In this paper, we use multiple single copy nuclear loci to address the phylogeny of the Cocoseae subtribe Attaleinae, and resolve the closest extant relative of the coconut. Methodology/Principal Findings We present the results of combined analysis of DNA sequences of seven WRKY transcription factor loci across 72 samples of Arecaceae tribe Cocoseae subtribe Attaleinae, representing all genera classified within the subtribe, and three outgroup taxa with maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian approaches, producing highly congruent and well-resolved trees that robustly identify the genus Syagrus as sister to Cocos and resolve novel and well-supported relationships among the other genera of the Attaleinae. We also address incongruence among the gene trees with gene tree reconciliation analysis, and assign estimated ages to the nodes of our tree. Conclusions/Significance This study represents the as yet most extensive phylogenetic analyses of Cocoseae subtribe Attaleinae. We present a well-resolved and supported phylogeny of the subtribe that robustly indicates a sister relationship between Cocos and Syagrus. This is not only of biogeographic interest, but will also open fruitful avenues of inquiry regarding evolution of functional genes useful for crop improvement. Establishment of two major clades of American Attaleinae occurred in the Oligocene (ca. 37 MYBP) in Eastern Brazil. The divergence of Cocos from Syagrus is estimated at 35 MYBP. The biogeographic and morphological congruence that we see for

  6. Phylogenetic Analysis of Enteroaggregative and Diffusely Adherent Escherichia coli

    PubMed Central

    Czeczulin, John R.; Whittam, Thomas S.; Henderson, Ian R.; Navarro-Garcia, Fernando; Nataro, James P.

    1999-01-01

    The phylogenetics of the various pathotypes of diarrheagenic Escherichia coli are not completely understood. In this study, we identified several plasmid and chromosomal genes in the pathogenic enteroaggregative E. coli (EAEC) prototype strain 042 and determined the prevalence of these loci among EAEC and diffusely adherent E. coli strains. The distribution of these genes is analyzed within an evolutionary framework provided by the characterization of allelic variation in housekeeping genes via multilocus enzyme electrophoresis. Our data reveal that EAEC strains are heterogeneous with respect to chromosomal and plasmid-borne genes but that the majority harbor a member of a conserved family of virulence plasmids. Comparison of plasmid and chromosomal relatedness of strains suggests clonality of chromosomal markers and a limited transfer model of plasmid distribution. PMID:10338471

  7. Evolutionary ecology of specialization: insights from phylogenetic analysis.

    PubMed

    Vamosi, Jana C; Armbruster, W Scott; Renner, Susanne S

    2014-11-22

    In this Special feature, we assemble studies that illustrate phylogenetic approaches to studying salient questions regarding the effect of specialization on lineage diversification. The studies use an array of techniques involving a wide-ranging collection of biological systems (plants, butterflies, fish and amphibians are all represented). Their results reveal that macroevolutionary examination of specialization provides insight into the patterns of trade-offs in specialized systems; in particular, the genetic mechanisms of trade-offs appear to extend to very different aspects of life history in different groups. In turn, because a species may be a specialist from one perspective and a generalist in others, these trade-offs influence whether we perceive specialization to have effects on the evolutionary success of a lineage when we examine specialization only along a single axis. Finally, how geographical range influences speciation and extinction of specialist lineages remains a question offering much potential for further insight.

  8. Phylogenetic analysis of the NS5 gene of Zika virus.

    PubMed

    Adiga, Rama

    2016-10-01

    ZIKV infection has become a global threat spreading across 31 countries in Central America, South America, and the Caribbean. However, little information is available about the molecular epidemiology of ZIKV. Shared mutation of a threonine residue to alanine at the same position in the C terminal of NS5 sequences was observed in sequences from Colombia, Mexico, Panama, and Martinique. The sequences in the phylogenetic tree fell within the same cluster. Based on shared mutation the presence of a Latin American genotype was proposed. Comparison of African and Asian lineages yielded R29N, N273S, H383Q, and P391S mutation. The study highlights that mutation of amino acids at NS5 may contribute to neutropism of ZIKV. J. Med. Virol. 88:1821-1826, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Phylogenetic analysis of the NS5 gene of Zika virus.

    PubMed

    Adiga, Rama

    2016-10-01

    ZIKV infection has become a global threat spreading across 31 countries in Central America, South America, and the Caribbean. However, little information is available about the molecular epidemiology of ZIKV. Shared mutation of a threonine residue to alanine at the same position in the C terminal of NS5 sequences was observed in sequences from Colombia, Mexico, Panama, and Martinique. The sequences in the phylogenetic tree fell within the same cluster. Based on shared mutation the presence of a Latin American genotype was proposed. Comparison of African and Asian lineages yielded R29N, N273S, H383Q, and P391S mutation. The study highlights that mutation of amino acids at NS5 may contribute to neutropism of ZIKV. J. Med. Virol. 88:1821-1826, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27335310

  10. Evolutionary ecology of specialization: insights from phylogenetic analysis

    PubMed Central

    Vamosi, Jana C.; Armbruster, W. Scott; Renner, Susanne S.

    2014-01-01

    In this Special feature, we assemble studies that illustrate phylogenetic approaches to studying salient questions regarding the effect of specialization on lineage diversification. The studies use an array of techniques involving a wide-ranging collection of biological systems (plants, butterflies, fish and amphibians are all represented). Their results reveal that macroevolutionary examination of specialization provides insight into the patterns of trade-offs in specialized systems; in particular, the genetic mechanisms of trade-offs appear to extend to very different aspects of life history in different groups. In turn, because a species may be a specialist from one perspective and a generalist in others, these trade-offs influence whether we perceive specialization to have effects on the evolutionary success of a lineage when we examine specialization only along a single axis. Finally, how geographical range influences speciation and extinction of specialist lineages remains a question offering much potential for further insight. PMID:25274367

  11. Assigning protein functions by comparative genome analysis protein phylogenetic profiles

    DOEpatents

    Pellegrini, Matteo; Marcotte, Edward M.; Thompson, Michael J.; Eisenberg, David; Grothe, Robert; Yeates, Todd O.

    2003-05-13

    A computational method system, and computer program are provided for inferring functional links from genome sequences. One method is based on the observation that some pairs of proteins A' and B' have homologs in another organism fused into a single protein chain AB. A trans-genome comparison of sequences can reveal these AB sequences, which are Rosetta Stone sequences because they decipher an interaction between A' and B. Another method compares the genomic sequence of two or more organisms to create a phylogenetic profile for each protein indicating its presence or absence across all the genomes. The profile provides information regarding functional links between different families of proteins. In yet another method a combination of the above two methods is used to predict functional links.

  12. Phylogenetic analysis and development of probes for differentiating methylotrophic bacteria.

    PubMed Central

    Brusseau, G A; Bulygina, E S; Hanson, R S

    1994-01-01

    Fifteen small-subunit rRNAs from methylotrophic bacteria have been sequenced. Comparisons of these sequences with 22 previously published sequences further defined the phylogenetic relationships among these bacteria and illustrated the agreement between phylogeny and physiological characteristics of the bacteria. Phylogenetic trees were constructed with 16S rRNA sequences from methylotrophic bacteria and representative organisms from subdivisions within the class Proteobacteria on the basis of sequence similarities by using a weighted least-mean-square difference method. The methylotrophs have been separated into coherent clusters in which bacteria shared physiological characteristics. The clusters distinguished bacteria which used either the ribulose monophosphate or serine pathway for carbon assimilation. In addition, methanotrophs and methylotrophs which do not utilize methane were found to form distinct clusters within these groups. Five new deoxyoligonucleotide probes were designed, synthesized, labelled with digoxigenin-11-ddUTP, and tested for the ability to hybridize to RNA extracted from the bacteria represented in the unique clusters and for the ability to detect RNAs purified from soils enriched for methanotrophs by exposure to a methane-air atmosphere for one month. The 16S rRNA purified from soil hybridized to the probe which was complementary to sequences present in 16S rRNA from serine pathway methanotrophs and hybridized to a lesser extent with a probe complementary to sequences in 16S rRNAs of ribulose monophosphate pathway methanotrophs. The nonradioactive detection system used performed reliably at amounts of RNA from pure cultures as small as 10 ng. Images PMID:7510941

  13. Phylogenetic relationships of Pseudohynobius (Urodela, Hynobiidae) inferred from DNA barcoding analysis.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Y-Y; Su, L-N; Zhang, Z-M; Wang, X-Y

    2016-01-01

    As a proven tool, DNA barcoding can identify species rapidly and unambiguously. In this study, we used mtDNA cyt b, COI, and 16s rRNA sequences of six species of Pseudohynobius, Protohynobius puxiongensis, Liua shihi, Ranodon sibiricus, and Pachyhynobius shangchengensis, to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationships using Bayesian inference and maximum likelihood methods. Approximate lineage divergence times were also estimated, the divergence between them was calculated to have taken place mainly in Miocene. Our results showed that: 1) Ps. guizhouensis is an independent and valid species that is a sister species to Ps. kuankuoshuiensis; 2) five Pseudohynobius species formed a monophyletic group; 3) Ps. tsinpaensis is different from L. shihi, and should be classified as belonging to the Liua genus; and 4) Pr. puxiongensis is the sister lineage to all Pseudohynobius species, and should therefore be named Pseudohynobius puxiongensis. PMID:27420996

  14. A Gateway for Phylogenetic Analysis Powered by Grid Computing Featuring GARLI 2.0

    PubMed Central

    Bazinet, Adam L.; Zwickl, Derrick J.; Cummings, Michael P.

    2014-01-01

    We introduce molecularevolution.org, a publicly available gateway for high-throughput, maximum-likelihood phylogenetic analysis powered by grid computing. The gateway features a garli 2.0 web service that enables a user to quickly and easily submit thousands of maximum likelihood tree searches or bootstrap searches that are executed in parallel on distributed computing resources. The garli web service allows one to easily specify partitioned substitution models using a graphical interface, and it performs sophisticated post-processing of phylogenetic results. Although the garli web service has been used by the research community for over three years, here we formally announce the availability of the service, describe its capabilities, highlight new features and recent improvements, and provide details about how the grid system efficiently delivers high-quality phylogenetic results. [garli, gateway, grid computing, maximum likelihood, molecular evolution portal, phylogenetics, web service.] PMID:24789072

  15. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making

    PubMed Central

    Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E.

    2015-01-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people’s confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality. PMID:26517475

  16. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

    PubMed

    Aitchison, Laurence; Bang, Dan; Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E

    2015-10-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people's confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality. PMID:26517475

  17. Analysis of multiple-view Bayesian classification for SAR ATR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, Myron Z.

    2003-09-01

    Classification of targets in high-resolution synthetic aperture radar imagery is a challenging problem in practice, due to extended operating conditions such as obscuration, articulation, varied configurations and a host of camouflage, concealment and deception tactics. Due to radar cross-section variability, the ability to discriminate between targets also varies greatly with target aspect. Potential space-borne and air-borne sensor systems may eventually be exploited to provide products to the warfighter at tactically relevant timelines. With such potential systems in place, multiple views of a given target area may be available to support targeting. In this paper, we examine the aspect dependence of SAR target classification and develop a Bayesian classification approach that exploits multiple incoherent views of a target. We further examine several practical issues in the design of such a classifier and consider sensitivities and their implications for sensor planning. Experimental results indicating the benefits of aspect diversity for improving performance under extended operating conditions are shown using publicly released 1-foot SAR data from DARPA's MSTAR program.

  18. Bayesian Analysis of Cosmic Ray Propagation: Evidence against Homogeneous Diffusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jóhannesson, G.; Ruiz de Austri, R.; Vincent, A. C.; Moskalenko, I. V.; Orlando, E.; Porter, T. A.; Strong, A. W.; Trotta, R.; Feroz, F.; Graff, P.; Hobson, M. P.

    2016-06-01

    We present the results of the most complete scan of the parameter space for cosmic ray (CR) injection and propagation. We perform a Bayesian search of the main GALPROP parameters, using the MultiNest nested sampling algorithm, augmented by the BAMBI neural network machine-learning package. This is the first study to separate out low-mass isotopes (p, \\bar{p}, and He) from the usual light elements (Be, B, C, N, and O). We find that the propagation parameters that best-fit p,\\bar{p}, and He data are significantly different from those that fit light elements, including the B/C and 10Be/9Be secondary-to-primary ratios normally used to calibrate propagation parameters. This suggests that each set of species is probing a very different interstellar medium, and that the standard approach of calibrating propagation parameters using B/C can lead to incorrect results. We present posterior distributions and best-fit parameters for propagation of both sets of nuclei, as well as for the injection abundances of elements from H to Si. The input GALDEF files with these new parameters will be included in an upcoming public GALPROP update.

  19. Bayesian analysis of Lidar signals with multiple returns.

    PubMed

    Hernández-Marín, Sergio; Wallace, Andrew M; Gibson, Gavin J

    2007-12-01

    Time-Correlated Single Photon Counting and Burst Illumination Laser data can be used for range profiling and target classification. In general, the problem is to analyse the response from a histogram of either photon counts or integrated intensities to assess the number, positions and amplitudes of the reflected returns from object surfaces. The goal of our work is a complete characterisation of the 3D surfaces viewed by the laser imaging system. The authors present a unified theory of pixel processing that is applicable to both approaches based on a Bayesian framework which allows for careful and thorough treatment of all types of uncertainties associated with the data. We use reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) techniques to evaluate the posterior distribution of the parameters and to explore spaces with different dimensionality. Further, we use a delayed rejection step to allow the generated Markov chain to mix better through the use of different proposal distributions. The approach is demonstrated on simulated and real data, showing that the return parameters can be estimated to a high degree of accuracy. We also show some practical examples from both near and far range depth imaging. PMID:17934226

  20. Evidence of transoceanic dispersion of the genus Vanilla based on plastid DNA phylogenetic analysis.

    PubMed

    Bouetard, Anthony; Lefeuvre, Pierre; Gigant, Rodolphe; Bory, Séverine; Pignal, Marc; Besse, Pascale; Grisoni, Michel

    2010-05-01

    The phylogeny and the biogeographical history of the genus Vanilla was investigated using four chloroplastic genes (psbB, psbC; psaB and rbcL), on 47 accessions of Vanilla chosen from the ex situ CIRAD collection maintained in Reunion Island and additional sequences from GenBank. Bayesian methods provided a fairly well supported reconstruction of the phylogeny of the Vanilloideae sub-family and more particularly of the genus Vanilla. Three major phylogenetic groups in the genus Vanilla were differentiated, which is in disagreement with the actual classification in two sections (Foliosae and Aphyllae) based on morphological traits. Recent Bayesian relaxed molecular clock methods allowed to test the two main hypotheses of the phylogeography of the genus Vanilla. Early radiation of the Vanilla genus and diversification by vicariance consecutive to the break-up of Gondwana, 95 million years ago (Mya), was incompatible with the admitted age of origin of Angiosperm. Based on the Vanilloideae age recently estimated to 71 million years ago (Mya), we conclude that the genus Vanilla would have appeared approximately 34 Mya in South America, when continents were already separated. Nevertheless, whatever the two extreme scenarios tested, at least three long distance migration events are needed to explain the present distribution of Vanilla species in tropical areas. These transoceanic dispersions could have occurred via transoceanic passageway such as the Rio Grande Ridge and the involvement of floating vegetation mats and migratory birds.

  1. UNSUPERVISED TRANSIENT LIGHT CURVE ANALYSIS VIA HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN INFERENCE

    SciTech Connect

    Sanders, N. E.; Soderberg, A. M.; Betancourt, M.

    2015-02-10

    Historically, light curve studies of supernovae (SNe) and other transient classes have focused on individual objects with copious and high signal-to-noise observations. In the nascent era of wide field transient searches, objects with detailed observations are decreasing as a fraction of the overall known SN population, and this strategy sacrifices the majority of the information contained in the data about the underlying population of transients. A population level modeling approach, simultaneously fitting all available observations of objects in a transient sub-class of interest, fully mines the data to infer the properties of the population and avoids certain systematic biases. We present a novel hierarchical Bayesian statistical model for population level modeling of transient light curves, and discuss its implementation using an efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo technique. As a test case, we apply this model to the Type IIP SN sample from the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey, consisting of 18,837 photometric observations of 76 SNe, corresponding to a joint posterior distribution with 9176 parameters under our model. Our hierarchical model fits provide improved constraints on light curve parameters relevant to the physical properties of their progenitor stars relative to modeling individual light curves alone. Moreover, we directly evaluate the probability for occurrence rates of unseen light curve characteristics from the model hyperparameters, addressing observational biases in survey methodology. We view this modeling framework as an unsupervised machine learning technique with the ability to maximize scientific returns from data to be collected by future wide field transient searches like LSST.

  2. [Phylogenetic analysis and expression patterns of tropomyosin in amphioxus].

    PubMed

    Li, Xin-Yi; Lin, Yu-Shuang; Zhang, Hong-Wei

    2012-08-01

    In amphioxus, we found a mesoderm related gene, tropomyosin, which encodes a protein comprising 284 amino acid residues, sharing high identities with other known Tropomyosin proteins both in vertebrates and invertebrates. Phylogenetically, amphioxus Tropomyosin fell outside the invertebrate clade and was at the base of the vertebrate protein family clade, indicating that it may represent an independent branch. From the early neurula to the larva stage, whole-mount in situ hybridization and histological sections found transcripts of amphioxus tropomyosin gene. Weak tropomyosin expression was first detected in the wall of the archenteron at about 10 hours-post-fertilization neurula stage, while intense expression was revealed in the differentiating presumptive notochord and the muscle. Transcripts of tropomyosin were then expressed in the formed notochord and somites. Gene expression seemed to continue in these developing organs throughout the neurular stages and remained till 72-hours, during the early larval stages. In situ study still showed tropomyosin was also expressed in the neural tube, hepatic diverticulum, notochord and the spaces between myotomes in adult amphioxus. Our results indicated that tropomyosin may play an important role in both embryonic development and adult life.

  3. [Phylogenetic analysis of bacterial diversity in Pacific Arctic sediments].

    PubMed

    Li, Hui-Rong; Yu, Yong; Zeng, Yin-Xin; Chen, Bo; Ren, Da-Ming

    2006-04-01

    Using PCR-DGGE (denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis) methods, bacterial phylogenetic diversity in three Pacific Arctic sediment samples were investigated, taken from different depths in the range of 47 m to 3850 m. DGGE profiles of different layers in the same sediment sample are not completely same. 16S rDNA sequences corresponding to 50 excised bands from three sediment samples were analyzed and fell into seven lineages of the domain Bacteria: alpha- beta-, gamma-, delta-, epsilon- Proteobacteria, the Cytophaga-Flavobacterium-Bacteroides (CFB) group and Actinobacteria. However, the composition of bacterial phylotypes in three sediments is different. Fourteen sequences obtained from sediment B78 collected from the Canadian Basin belong to beta-, gamma- Proteobacteria, Comamonadaceae and Acidobacteria. Bacterial phylotypes in submarine plateau sediment P24 are alpha-, gamma-, delta-Proteobacteria; While seventeen sequences from sediment S11 colleted from continental slop in the Chukchi Sea are grouped into alpha-, gamma-, delta-, epsilon-Proteobacteria, the Cytophaga-Flavobacterium-Bacteroides (CFB) group and Actinobacteria. It is suggested the different characteristics of three sediments may cause the difference in the composition of bacterial phylotypes. 16S rDNA sequences from members of gamma-Proteobacteria dominated three sediments samples. The majority of the sequences were most closely related to uncultured marine environmental sequences, especially marine sediment environmental sequences (88% - 100%). PMID:16736572

  4. Molecular phylogenetic analysis of Fasciola flukes from eastern India.

    PubMed

    Hayashi, Kei; Ichikawa-Seki, Madoka; Mohanta, Uday Kumar; Singh, T Shantikumar; Shoriki, Takuya; Sugiyama, Hiromu; Itagaki, Tadashi

    2015-10-01

    Fasciola flukes from eastern India were characterized on the basis of spermatogenesis status and nuclear ITS1. Both Fasciola gigantica and aspermic Fasciola flukes were detected in Imphal, Kohima, and Gantoku districts. The sequences of mitochondrial nad1 were analyzed to infer their phylogenetical relationship with neighboring countries. The haplotypes of aspermic Fasciola flukes were identical or showed a single nucleotide substitution compared to those from populations in the neighboring countries, corroborating the previous reports that categorized them in the same lineage. However, the prevalence of aspermic Fasciola flukes in eastern India was lower than those in the neighboring countries, suggesting that they have not dispersed throughout eastern India. In contrast, F. gigantica was predominant and well diversified, and the species was thought to be distributed in the area for a longer time than the aspermic Fasciola flukes. Fasciola gigantica populations from eastern India were categorized into two distinct haplogroups A and B. The level of their genetic diversity suggests that populations belonging to haplogroup A have dispersed from the west side of the Indian subcontinent to eastern India with the artificial movement of domestic cattle, Bos indicus, whereas populations belonging to haplogroup B might have spread from Myanmar to eastern India with domestic buffaloes, Bubalus bubalis.

  5. Molecular characterization and phylogenetic analysis of Fasciola hepatica from Peru.

    PubMed

    Ichikawa-Seki, Madoka; Ortiz, Pedro; Cabrera, Maria; Hobán, Cristian; Itagaki, Tadashi

    2016-06-01

    The causative agent of fasciolosis in South America is thought to be Fasciola hepatica. In this study, Fasciola flukes from Peru were analyzed to investigate their genetic structure and phylogenetic relationships with those from other countries. Fasciola flukes were collected from the three definitive host species: cattle, sheep, and pigs. They were identified as F. hepatica because mature sperms were observed in their seminal vesicles, and also they displayed Fh type, which has an identical fragment pattern to F. hepatica in the nuclear internal transcribed spacer 1. Eight haplotypes were obtained from the mitochondrial NADH dehydrogenase subunit 1 (nad1) sequences of Peruvian F. hepatica; however, no special difference in genetic structure was observed between the three host species. Its extremely low genetic diversity suggests that the Peruvian population was introduced from other regions. Nad1 haplotypes identical to those of Peruvian F. hepatica were detected in China, Uruguay, Italy, Iran, and Australia. Our results indicate that F. hepatica rapidly expanded its range due to human migration. Future studies are required to elucidate dispersal route of F. hepatica from Europe, its probable origin, to other areas, including Peru.

  6. Phylogenetic Analysis of Canine Parvovirus VP2 Gene in China.

    PubMed

    Yi, L; Tong, M; Cheng, Y; Song, W; Cheng, S

    2016-04-01

    In this study, a total of 37 samples (58.0%) were found through PCR assay to be positive for canine parvovirus (CPV) of 66 suspected faecal samples of dogs collected from various cities throughout China. Eight CPV isolates could be obtained in the CRFK cell line. The sequencing of the VP2 gene of CPV identified the predominant CPV strain as CPV-2a (Ser297Ala), with two CPV-2b (Ser297Ala). Sequence comparison revealed homologies of 99.3-99.9%, 99.9% and 99.3-99.7% within the CPV 2a isolates, within the CPV 2b isolates and between the CPV 2a and 2b isolates, respectively. In addition, several non-synonymous and synonymous mutations were also recorded. The phylogenetic tree revealed that most of the CPV strains from different areas in China were located in the formation of a large branch, which were grouped together along with the KU143-09 strain from Thailand and followed the same evolution. In this study, we provide an updated molecular characterization of CPV 2 circulation in China.

  7. Phylogenetic and molecular analysis of hydrogen-producing green algae

    PubMed Central

    Timmins, Matthew; Thomas-Hall, Skye R.; Darling, Aaron; Zhang, Eugene; Hankamer, Ben; Marx, Ute C.; Schenk, Peer M.

    2009-01-01

    A select set of microalgae are reported to be able to catalyse photobiological H2 production from water. Based on the model organism Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, a method was developed for the screening of naturally occurring H2-producing microalgae. By purging algal cultures with N2 in the dark and subsequent illumination, it is possible to rapidly induce photobiological H2 evolution. Using NMR spectroscopy for metabolic profiling in C. reinhardtii, acetate, formate, and ethanol were found to be key compounds contributing to metabolic variance during the assay. This procedure can be used to test algal species existing as axenic or mixed cultures for their ability to produce H2. Using this system, five algal isolates capable of H2 production were identified in various aquatic systems. A phylogenetic tree was constructed using ribosomal sequence data of green unicellular algae to determine if there were taxonomic patterns of H2 production. H2-producing algal species were seen to be dispersed amongst most clades, indicating an H2-producing capacity preceded evolution of the phylum Chlorophyta. PMID:19342428

  8. Disentangling evolutionary cause-effect relationships with phylogenetic confirmatory path analysis.

    PubMed

    von Hardenberg, Achaz; Gonzalez-Voyer, Alejandro

    2013-02-01

    Confirmatory path analysis is a statistical technique to build models of causal hypotheses among variables and test if the data conform with the causal model. However, classical path analysis techniques ignore the nonindependence of observations due to phylogenetic relatedness among species, possibly leading to spurious results. Here, we present a simple method to perform phylogenetic confirmatory path analysis (PPA). We analyzed simulated datasets with varying amounts of phylogenetic signal in the data and a known underlying causal structure linking the traits to estimate Type I error and power. Results show that Type I error for PPA appeared to be slightly anticonservative (range: 0.047-0.072) but path analysis models ignoring phylogenetic signal resulted in much higher Type I error rates, which were positively related to the amount of phylogenetic signal (range: 0.051 for λ= 0 to 0.916 for λ= 1). Further, the power of the test was not compromised when accounting for phylogeny. As an example of the application of PPA, we revisit a study on the correlates of aggressive broodmate competition across seven avian families. The use of PPA allowed us to gain greater insight into the plausible causal paths linking species traits to aggressive broodmate competition.

  9. Individual organisms as units of analysis: Bayesian-clustering alternatives in population genetics.

    PubMed

    Mank, Judith E; Avise, John C

    2004-12-01

    Population genetic analyses traditionally focus on the frequencies of alleles or genotypes in 'populations' that are delimited a priori. However, there are potential drawbacks of amalgamating genetic data into such composite attributes of assemblages of specimens: genetic information on individual specimens is lost or submerged as an inherent part of the analysis. A potential also exists for circular reasoning when a population's initial identification and subsequent genetic characterization are coupled. In principle, these problems are circumvented by some newer methods of population identification and individual assignment based on statistical clustering of specimen genotypes. Here we evaluate a recent method in this genre--Bayesian clustering--using four genotypic data sets involving different types of molecular markers in non-model organisms from nature. As expected, measures of population genetic structure (F(ST) and phiST) tended to be significantly greater in Bayesian a posteriori data treatments than in analyses where populations were delimited a priori. In the four biological contexts examined, which involved both geographic population structures and hybrid zones, Bayesian clustering was able to recover differentiated populations, and Bayesian assignments were able to identify likely population sources of specific individuals.

  10. An intake prior for the Bayesian analysis of plutonium and uranium exposures in an epidemiology study.

    PubMed

    Puncher, M; Birchall, A; Bull, R K

    2014-12-01

    In Bayesian inference, the initial knowledge regarding the value of a parameter, before additional data are considered, is represented as a prior probability distribution. This paper describes the derivation of a prior distribution of intake that was used for the Bayesian analysis of plutonium and uranium worker doses in a recent epidemiology study. The chosen distribution is log-normal with a geometric standard deviation of 6 and a median value that is derived for each worker based on the duration of the work history and the number of reported acute intakes. The median value is a function of the work history and a constant related to activity in air concentration, M, which is derived separately for uranium and plutonium. The value of M is based primarily on measurements of plutonium and uranium in air derived from historical personal air sampler (PAS) data. However, there is significant uncertainty on the value of M that results from paucity of PAS data and from extrapolating these measurements to actual intakes. This paper compares posterior and prior distributions of intake and investigates the sensitivity of the Bayesian analyses to the assumed value of M. It is found that varying M by a factor of 10 results in a much smaller factor of 2 variation in mean intake and lung dose for both plutonium and uranium. It is concluded that if a log-normal distribution is considered to adequately represent worker intakes, then the Bayesian posterior distribution of dose is relatively insensitive to the value assumed of M.

  11. Phylogenetic estimation and morphological evolution of Arundinarieae (Bambusoideae: Poaceae) based on plastome phylogenomic analysis.

    PubMed

    Attigala, Lakshmi; Wysocki, William P; Duvall, Melvin R; Clark, Lynn G

    2016-08-01

    We explored phylogenetic relationships among the twelve lineages of the temperate woody bamboo clade (tribe Arundinarieae) based on plastid genome (plastome) sequence data. A representative sample of 28 taxa was used and maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference analyses were conducted to estimate the Arundinarieae phylogeny. All the previously recognized clades of Arundinarieae were supported, with Ampelocalamus calcareus (Clade XI) as sister to the rest of the temperate woody bamboos. Well supported sister relationships between Bergbambos tessellata (Clade I) and Thamnocalamus spathiflorus (Clade VII) and between Kuruna (Clade XII) and Chimonocalmus (Clade III) were revealed by the current study. The plastome topology was tested by taxon removal experiments and alternative hypothesis testing and the results supported the current plastome phylogeny as robust. Neighbor-net analyses showed few phylogenetic signal conflicts, but suggested some potentially complex relationships among these taxa. Analyses of morphological character evolution of rhizomes and reproductive structures revealed that pachymorph rhizomes were most likely the ancestral state in Arundinarieae. In contrast leptomorph rhizomes either evolved once with reversions to the pachymorph condition or multiple times in Arundinarieae. Further, pseudospikelets evolved independently at least twice in the Arundinarieae, but the ancestral state is ambiguous. PMID:27164472

  12. Sequence and phylogenetic analysis of the complete mitochondrial genome of Lasiopodomys mandarinus mandarinus (Arvicolinae, Rodentia).

    PubMed

    Li, Yangwei; Shi, Yuhua; Lu, Jiqi; Ji, Weihong; Wang, Zhenlong

    2016-11-30

    Mandarin vole (Lasiopodomys mandarinus) is a subterranean rodent that is often used as a model for studying subterranean hypoxic stress in mammals. However the taxonomy of this species is still in dispute. Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) has long been used for phylogenetic reconstruction and, in this study, the complete mitochondrial genome of L. mandarinus mandarinus was sequenced. Our results showed that the mitochondrial genome of L. m. mandarinus is a circular molecule of 16,367bp, which contains 13 protein-coding genes, 22 tRNA and 2 rRNA genes. Except for the 8 tRNA and ND6 genes, all other mitochondrial genes are encoded on the heavy strand. We also analyzed the phylogenetic position of L. mandarinus in respect to the tribe Arvicolini using the sequence of complete Cytb gene, 2rRNA genes and 12 protein-coding genes, and maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. Our results gave further support to the species status of L. mandarinus and the generic status of Lasiopodomys. PMID:27562081

  13. Sequence and phylogenetic analysis of the complete mitochondrial genome of Lasiopodomys mandarinus mandarinus (Arvicolinae, Rodentia).

    PubMed

    Li, Yangwei; Shi, Yuhua; Lu, Jiqi; Ji, Weihong; Wang, Zhenlong

    2016-11-30

    Mandarin vole (Lasiopodomys mandarinus) is a subterranean rodent that is often used as a model for studying subterranean hypoxic stress in mammals. However the taxonomy of this species is still in dispute. Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) has long been used for phylogenetic reconstruction and, in this study, the complete mitochondrial genome of L. mandarinus mandarinus was sequenced. Our results showed that the mitochondrial genome of L. m. mandarinus is a circular molecule of 16,367bp, which contains 13 protein-coding genes, 22 tRNA and 2 rRNA genes. Except for the 8 tRNA and ND6 genes, all other mitochondrial genes are encoded on the heavy strand. We also analyzed the phylogenetic position of L. mandarinus in respect to the tribe Arvicolini using the sequence of complete Cytb gene, 2rRNA genes and 12 protein-coding genes, and maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. Our results gave further support to the species status of L. mandarinus and the generic status of Lasiopodomys.

  14. Phylogenetic analysis of Leymus (Poaceae: Triticeae) inferred from nuclear rDNA ITS sequences.

    PubMed

    Sha, Li-Na; Yang, Rui-Wu; Fan, Xing; Wang, Xiao-Li; Zhou, Yong-Hong

    2008-10-01

    To investigate the phylogenetic relationships of polyploid Leymus (Poaceae: Triticeae), sequences of the nuclear rDNA internal transcribed spacer region (ITS) were analyzed for 34 Leymus accessions representing 25 species, together with three Psathyrostachys species (Ns genome), two Pseudoroegneria (St genome) species, Lophopyrum elongatum (E(e) genome), and Thinopyrum bessarabicum (E(b) genome). The phylogenetic analyses (maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference) supported two major clades, one including 21 Leymus species and three Psathyrostachys species, the other with nine Leymus species and four diploid species. The ITS RNA secondary structure of the Leymus species was compared with that of their putative diploid donor. It is suggested that (1) the species from the same areas or neighboring geographic regions are closely related to each other; (2) L. coreanus, L. duthiei, L. duthiei var. longearistatus, and L. komarovii are closely related to other Leymus species, and it is reasonable to transfer these species from the genus Hystrix to Leymus; (3) the ITS sequences of Leymus are evolutionarily distinct; (4) the different Leymus species and different distribution of a species derived their Ns genome from different Psathyrostachys species; and (5) there is a close relationship among Leymus, Pseudoroegneria, Lophopyrum, and Thinopyrum, but it is difficult to presume that the St, E(e), and E(b) genome may be the Xm genome donor of the Leymus species.

  15. Epidemiological and phylogenetic analysis of institutional mouse parvoviruses.

    PubMed

    Joh, Joongho; Proctor, Mary L; Ditslear, Janice L; King, William W; Sundberg, John P; Jenson, A Bennett; Ghim, Shin-Je

    2013-08-01

    Mouse parvoviruses (MPVs) are small, single-stranded, 5 kb DNA viruses that are subclinical and endemic in many laboratory mouse colonies. MPVs cause more distinctive deleterious effects in immune-compromised or genetically-engineered mice than immuno-competent mice. At the University of Louisville (U of L), there was an unexpected increase of MPV sero-positivity for MPV infections in mouse colonies between January 2006 and February 2007, resulting in strategic husbandry changes aimed at controlling MPV spread throughout the animal facility. To investigate these MPVs, VP2 genes of seven MPVs were cloned and sequenced from eight documented incidences by PCR technology. The mutations in these VP2 genes were compared to those found at the Genbank database (NCBI; http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov) and an intra-institutional phylogenetic tree for MPV infections at U of L was constructed. We discovered that the seven MPV isolates were different from those in Genbank and were not identical to each other. These MPVs were designated MPV-UL1 to 7; none of them were minute virus of mice (MVMs). Four isolates could be classified as MPV1, one was classified as MPV2, and two were defined as novel types with less than 96% and 94% homology with existing MPV types. Considering that all seven isolates had mutations in their VP2 genes and no mutations were observed in VP2 genes of MPV during a four-month time period of incubation, we concluded that all seven MPVs isolated at U of L between 2006 and 2007 probably originated from different sources. Serological survey for MPV infections verified that each MPV outbreak was controlled without further contamination within the institution. PMID:23545399

  16. Molecular phylogenetic analysis of nuclear genes suggests a Cenozoic over-water dispersal origin for the Cuban solenodon.

    PubMed

    Sato, Jun J; Ohdachi, Satoshi D; Echenique-Diaz, Lazaro M; Borroto-Páez, Rafael; Begué-Quiala, Gerardo; Delgado-Labañino, Jorge L; Gámez-Díez, Jorgelino; Alvarez-Lemus, José; Nguyen, Son Truong; Yamaguchi, Nobuyuki; Kita, Masaki

    2016-01-01

    The Cuban solenodon (Solenodon cubanus) is one of the most enigmatic mammals and is an extremely rare species with a distribution limited to a small part of the island of Cuba. Despite its rarity, in 2012 seven individuals of S. cubanus were captured and sampled successfully for DNA analysis, providing new insights into the evolutionary origin of this species and into the origins of the Caribbean fauna, which remain controversial. We conducted molecular phylogenetic analyses of five nuclear genes (Apob, Atp7a, Bdnf, Brca1 and Rag1; total, 4,602 bp) from 35 species of the mammalian order Eulipotyphla. Based on Bayesian relaxed molecular clock analyses, the family Solenodontidae diverged from other eulipotyphlan in the Paleocene, after the bolide impact on the Yucatan Peninsula, and S. cubanus diverged from the Hispaniolan solenodon (S. paradoxus) in the Early Pliocene. The strikingly recent divergence time estimates suggest that S. cubanus and its ancestral lineage originated via over-water dispersal rather than vicariance events, as had previously been hypothesised. PMID:27498968

  17. Molecular phylogenetic analysis of nuclear genes suggests a Cenozoic over-water dispersal origin for the Cuban solenodon.

    PubMed

    Sato, Jun J; Ohdachi, Satoshi D; Echenique-Diaz, Lazaro M; Borroto-Páez, Rafael; Begué-Quiala, Gerardo; Delgado-Labañino, Jorge L; Gámez-Díez, Jorgelino; Alvarez-Lemus, José; Nguyen, Son Truong; Yamaguchi, Nobuyuki; Kita, Masaki

    2016-08-08

    The Cuban solenodon (Solenodon cubanus) is one of the most enigmatic mammals and is an extremely rare species with a distribution limited to a small part of the island of Cuba. Despite its rarity, in 2012 seven individuals of S. cubanus were captured and sampled successfully for DNA analysis, providing new insights into the evolutionary origin of this species and into the origins of the Caribbean fauna, which remain controversial. We conducted molecular phylogenetic analyses of five nuclear genes (Apob, Atp7a, Bdnf, Brca1 and Rag1; total, 4,602 bp) from 35 species of the mammalian order Eulipotyphla. Based on Bayesian relaxed molecular clock analyses, the family Solenodontidae diverged from other eulipotyphlan in the Paleocene, after the bolide impact on the Yucatan Peninsula, and S. cubanus diverged from the Hispaniolan solenodon (S. paradoxus) in the Early Pliocene. The strikingly recent divergence time estimates suggest that S. cubanus and its ancestral lineage originated via over-water dispersal rather than vicariance events, as had previously been hypothesised.

  18. Molecular phylogenetic analysis of nuclear genes suggests a Cenozoic over-water dispersal origin for the Cuban solenodon

    PubMed Central

    Sato, Jun J.; Ohdachi, Satoshi D.; Echenique-Diaz, Lazaro M.; Borroto-Páez, Rafael; Begué-Quiala, Gerardo; Delgado-Labañino, Jorge L.; Gámez-Díez, Jorgelino; Alvarez-Lemus, José; Nguyen, Son Truong; Yamaguchi, Nobuyuki; Kita, Masaki

    2016-01-01

    The Cuban solenodon (Solenodon cubanus) is one of the most enigmatic mammals and is an extremely rare species with a distribution limited to a small part of the island of Cuba. Despite its rarity, in 2012 seven individuals of S. cubanus were captured and sampled successfully for DNA analysis, providing new insights into the evolutionary origin of this species and into the origins of the Caribbean fauna, which remain controversial. We conducted molecular phylogenetic analyses of five nuclear genes (Apob, Atp7a, Bdnf, Brca1 and Rag1; total, 4,602 bp) from 35 species of the mammalian order Eulipotyphla. Based on Bayesian relaxed molecular clock analyses, the family Solenodontidae diverged from other eulipotyphlan in the Paleocene, after the bolide impact on the Yucatan Peninsula, and S. cubanus diverged from the Hispaniolan solenodon (S. paradoxus) in the Early Pliocene. The strikingly recent divergence time estimates suggest that S. cubanus and its ancestral lineage originated via over-water dispersal rather than vicariance events, as had previously been hypothesised. PMID:27498968

  19. The phylogenetic analysis of fungi associated with lichenized ascomycete genus Bryoria reveals new lineages in the Tremellales including a new species Tremella huuskonenii hyperparasitic on Phacopsis huuskonenii.

    PubMed

    Lindgren, Hanna; Diederich, Paul; Goward, Trevor; Myllys, Leena

    2015-09-01

    The basidiomycete order Tremellales includes many species parasitic on or cohabiting with lichen-forming fungi. In this study, we examined the phylogenetic position of Tremellales obtained from Bryoria thalli using nSSU, 5.8S, and partial nLSU sequence data. Both Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses revealed the presence of basidiomycetous fungi in three separate clades within Tremellales. Tremellales sp. A and Tremella sp. B exist asymptomatically in Bryoria thalli and should thus be regarded as endolichenic rather than lichenicolous fungi. The third lineage represents a new species and is described here as Tremella huuskonenii. It is hyperparasitic over galls induced by Phacopsis huuskonenii, a lichenicolous fungus growing in Bryoria thalli. We also examined the genetic diversity of Tremella sp. B and Tremella huuskonenii with an extended taxon sampling using ITS and partial nLSU sequence data. For comparison, ITS, GAPDH, and Mcm7 regions were used for phylogenetic analyses of the host lichen specimens. According to our results, phylogenetic structure within the two Tremella species does not appear to correlate with the geographic distribution nor with the phylogeny or the secondary chemistry of the host lichen. However, ITS haplotype analysis of T. huuskonenii revealed some genetic differences between European and North American populations as some haplotypes were more common in Europe than in North America and vice versa.

  20. The phylogenetic analysis of fungi associated with lichenized ascomycete genus Bryoria reveals new lineages in the Tremellales including a new species Tremella huuskonenii hyperparasitic on Phacopsis huuskonenii.

    PubMed

    Lindgren, Hanna; Diederich, Paul; Goward, Trevor; Myllys, Leena

    2015-09-01

    The basidiomycete order Tremellales includes many species parasitic on or cohabiting with lichen-forming fungi. In this study, we examined the phylogenetic position of Tremellales obtained from Bryoria thalli using nSSU, 5.8S, and partial nLSU sequence data. Both Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses revealed the presence of basidiomycetous fungi in three separate clades within Tremellales. Tremellales sp. A and Tremella sp. B exist asymptomatically in Bryoria thalli and should thus be regarded as endolichenic rather than lichenicolous fungi. The third lineage represents a new species and is described here as Tremella huuskonenii. It is hyperparasitic over galls induced by Phacopsis huuskonenii, a lichenicolous fungus growing in Bryoria thalli. We also examined the genetic diversity of Tremella sp. B and Tremella huuskonenii with an extended taxon sampling using ITS and partial nLSU sequence data. For comparison, ITS, GAPDH, and Mcm7 regions were used for phylogenetic analyses of the host lichen specimens. According to our results, phylogenetic structure within the two Tremella species does not appear to correlate with the geographic distribution nor with the phylogeny or the secondary chemistry of the host lichen. However, ITS haplotype analysis of T. huuskonenii revealed some genetic differences between European and North American populations as some haplotypes were more common in Europe than in North America and vice versa. PMID:26321732

  1. Phylogenetic and structural analysis of the phospholipase A2 gene family in vertebrates

    PubMed Central

    HUANG, QI; WU, YUAN; QIN, CHAO; HE, WENWU; WEI, XING

    2015-01-01

    The phospholipase A (PLA)2 family is the most complex gene family of phospholipases and plays a crucial role in a number of physiological activities. However, the phylogenetic background of the PLA2 gene family and the amino acid residues of the PLA2G7 gene following positive selection gene remain undetermined. In this study, we downloaded 49 genomic data sets of PLA from different species, including the human, house mouse, Norway rat, pig, dog, chicken, cattle, African clawed frog, Sumatran orangutan and the zebrafish species. Phylogenetic relationships were determined using the neighbor-joining (NJ), minimum evolution (ME) and maximum parsimony (MP) methods, as well as the Bayesian information criterion. The results were then presented as phylogenetic trees. Positive selection sites were detected using site, branch and branch-site models. These methods led us to the following assumptions: i) closer lineages were observed between PLA2G16 and PLA2G6, PLA2G7 and PLA2G4, PLA2G3 and PLA2G12, as well as among PLA2G10, PLA2G5 and PLA2G15; ii) PLA2G5 appeared to be the origin of the PLA2 family, and PLA2G7 was one of the most evolutionarily distant PLA2 proteins; iii) 16 positive-selection sites were detected and were marked in the PLA2G7 protein sequence as 327D, 257Q, 276G, 34s, 66G, 67C, 319S, 28N, 50S, 54T, 58R, 75T, 88Q, 92R, 179H and 191K. PMID:25543670

  2. Application of Bayesian graphs to SN Ia data analysis and compression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Cong; Corasaniti, Pier-Stefano; Bassett, Bruce A.

    2016-08-01

    Bayesian graphical models are an efficient tool for modelling complex data and derive self-consistent expressions of the posterior distribution of model parameters. We apply Bayesian graphs to perform statistical analyses of Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) luminosity distance measurements from the Joint Light-curve Analysis (JLA) dataset (Betoule et al. 2014). In contrast to the χ2 approach used in previous studies, the Bayesian inference allows us to fully account for the standard-candle parameter dependence of the data covariance matrix. Comparing with χ2 analysis results we find a systematic offset of the marginal model parameter bounds. We demonstrate that the bias is statistically significant in the case of the SN Ia standardization parameters with a maximal 6σ shift of the SN light-curve colour correction. In addition, we find that the evidence for a host galaxy correction is now only 2.4σ. Systematic offsets on the cosmological parameters remain small, but may increase by combining constraints from complementary cosmological probes. The bias of the χ2 analysis is due to neglecting the parameter-dependent log-determinant of the data covariance, which gives more statistical weight to larger values of the standardization parameters. We find a similar effect on compressed distance modulus data. To this end we implement a fully consistent compression method of the JLA dataset that uses a Gaussian approximation of the posterior distribution for fast generation of compressed data. Overall, the results of our analysis emphasize the need for a fully consistent Bayesian statistical approach in the analysis of future large SN Ia datasets.

  3. Enhanced characterization of solid solitary pulmonary nodules with Bayesian analysis-based computer-aided diagnosis

    PubMed Central

    Perandini, Simone; Soardi, Gian Alberto; Motton, Massimiliano; Augelli, Raffaele; Dallaserra, Chiara; Puntel, Gino; Rossi, Arianna; Sala, Giuseppe; Signorini, Manuel; Spezia, Laura; Zamboni, Federico; Montemezzi, Stefania

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to prospectively assess the accuracy gain of Bayesian analysis-based computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) vs human judgment alone in characterizing solitary pulmonary nodules (SPNs) at computed tomography (CT). The study included 100 randomly selected SPNs with a definitive diagnosis. Nodule features at first and follow-up CT scans as well as clinical data were evaluated individually on a 1 to 5 points risk chart by 7 radiologists, firstly blinded then aware of Bayesian Inference Malignancy Calculator (BIMC) model predictions. Raters’ predictions were evaluated by means of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and decision analysis. Overall ROC area under the curve was 0.758 before and 0.803 after the disclosure of CAD predictions (P = 0.003). A net gain in diagnostic accuracy was found in 6 out of 7 readers. Mean risk class of benign nodules dropped from 2.48 to 2.29, while mean risk class of malignancies rose from 3.66 to 3.92. Awareness of CAD predictions also determined a significant drop on mean indeterminate SPNs (15 vs 23.86 SPNs) and raised the mean number of correct and confident diagnoses (mean 39.57 vs 25.71 SPNs). This study provides evidence supporting the integration of the Bayesian analysis-based BIMC model in SPN characterization.

  4. Bayesian Statistical Analysis Applied to NAA Data for Neutron Flux Spectrum Determination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiesa, D.; Previtali, E.; Sisti, M.

    2014-04-01

    In this paper, we present a statistical method, based on Bayesian statistics, to evaluate the neutron flux spectrum from the activation data of different isotopes. The experimental data were acquired during a neutron activation analysis (NAA) experiment [A. Borio di Tigliole et al., Absolute flux measurement by NAA at the Pavia University TRIGA Mark II reactor facilities, ENC 2012 - Transactions Research Reactors, ISBN 978-92-95064-14-0, 22 (2012)] performed at the TRIGA Mark II reactor of Pavia University (Italy). In order to evaluate the neutron flux spectrum, subdivided in energy groups, we must solve a system of linear equations containing the grouped cross sections and the activation rate data. We solve this problem with Bayesian statistical analysis, including the uncertainties of the coefficients and the a priori information about the neutron flux. A program for the analysis of Bayesian hierarchical models, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations, is used to define the problem statistical model and solve it. The energy group fluxes and their uncertainties are then determined with great accuracy and the correlations between the groups are analyzed. Finally, the dependence of the results on the prior distribution choice and on the group cross section data is investigated to confirm the reliability of the analysis.

  5. Enhanced characterization of solid solitary pulmonary nodules with Bayesian analysis-based computer-aided diagnosis

    PubMed Central

    Perandini, Simone; Soardi, Gian Alberto; Motton, Massimiliano; Augelli, Raffaele; Dallaserra, Chiara; Puntel, Gino; Rossi, Arianna; Sala, Giuseppe; Signorini, Manuel; Spezia, Laura; Zamboni, Federico; Montemezzi, Stefania

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to prospectively assess the accuracy gain of Bayesian analysis-based computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) vs human judgment alone in characterizing solitary pulmonary nodules (SPNs) at computed tomography (CT). The study included 100 randomly selected SPNs with a definitive diagnosis. Nodule features at first and follow-up CT scans as well as clinical data were evaluated individually on a 1 to 5 points risk chart by 7 radiologists, firstly blinded then aware of Bayesian Inference Malignancy Calculator (BIMC) model predictions. Raters’ predictions were evaluated by means of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and decision analysis. Overall ROC area under the curve was 0.758 before and 0.803 after the disclosure of CAD predictions (P = 0.003). A net gain in diagnostic accuracy was found in 6 out of 7 readers. Mean risk class of benign nodules dropped from 2.48 to 2.29, while mean risk class of malignancies rose from 3.66 to 3.92. Awareness of CAD predictions also determined a significant drop on mean indeterminate SPNs (15 vs 23.86 SPNs) and raised the mean number of correct and confident diagnoses (mean 39.57 vs 25.71 SPNs). This study provides evidence supporting the integration of the Bayesian analysis-based BIMC model in SPN characterization. PMID:27648166

  6. Enhanced characterization of solid solitary pulmonary nodules with Bayesian analysis-based computer-aided diagnosis.

    PubMed

    Perandini, Simone; Soardi, Gian Alberto; Motton, Massimiliano; Augelli, Raffaele; Dallaserra, Chiara; Puntel, Gino; Rossi, Arianna; Sala, Giuseppe; Signorini, Manuel; Spezia, Laura; Zamboni, Federico; Montemezzi, Stefania

    2016-08-28

    The aim of this study was to prospectively assess the accuracy gain of Bayesian analysis-based computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) vs human judgment alone in characterizing solitary pulmonary nodules (SPNs) at computed tomography (CT). The study included 100 randomly selected SPNs with a definitive diagnosis. Nodule features at first and follow-up CT scans as well as clinical data were evaluated individually on a 1 to 5 points risk chart by 7 radiologists, firstly blinded then aware of Bayesian Inference Malignancy Calculator (BIMC) model predictions. Raters' predictions were evaluated by means of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and decision analysis. Overall ROC area under the curve was 0.758 before and 0.803 after the disclosure of CAD predictions (P = 0.003). A net gain in diagnostic accuracy was found in 6 out of 7 readers. Mean risk class of benign nodules dropped from 2.48 to 2.29, while mean risk class of malignancies rose from 3.66 to 3.92. Awareness of CAD predictions also determined a significant drop on mean indeterminate SPNs (15 vs 23.86 SPNs) and raised the mean number of correct and confident diagnoses (mean 39.57 vs 25.71 SPNs). This study provides evidence supporting the integration of the Bayesian analysis-based BIMC model in SPN characterization. PMID:27648166

  7. Enhanced characterization of solid solitary pulmonary nodules with Bayesian analysis-based computer-aided diagnosis.

    PubMed

    Perandini, Simone; Soardi, Gian Alberto; Motton, Massimiliano; Augelli, Raffaele; Dallaserra, Chiara; Puntel, Gino; Rossi, Arianna; Sala, Giuseppe; Signorini, Manuel; Spezia, Laura; Zamboni, Federico; Montemezzi, Stefania

    2016-08-28

    The aim of this study was to prospectively assess the accuracy gain of Bayesian analysis-based computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) vs human judgment alone in characterizing solitary pulmonary nodules (SPNs) at computed tomography (CT). The study included 100 randomly selected SPNs with a definitive diagnosis. Nodule features at first and follow-up CT scans as well as clinical data were evaluated individually on a 1 to 5 points risk chart by 7 radiologists, firstly blinded then aware of Bayesian Inference Malignancy Calculator (BIMC) model predictions. Raters' predictions were evaluated by means of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and decision analysis. Overall ROC area under the curve was 0.758 before and 0.803 after the disclosure of CAD predictions (P = 0.003). A net gain in diagnostic accuracy was found in 6 out of 7 readers. Mean risk class of benign nodules dropped from 2.48 to 2.29, while mean risk class of malignancies rose from 3.66 to 3.92. Awareness of CAD predictions also determined a significant drop on mean indeterminate SPNs (15 vs 23.86 SPNs) and raised the mean number of correct and confident diagnoses (mean 39.57 vs 25.71 SPNs). This study provides evidence supporting the integration of the Bayesian analysis-based BIMC model in SPN characterization.

  8. Simultaneous analysis of five molecular markers provides a well-supported phylogenetic hypothesis for the living bony-tongue fishes (Osteoglossomorpha: Teleostei).

    PubMed

    Lavoué, Sébastien; Sullivan, John P

    2004-10-01

    Fishes of the Superorder Osteoglossomorpha (the "bonytongues") constitute a morphologically heterogeneous group of basal teleosts, including highly derived subgroups such as African electric fishes, the African butterfly fish, and Old World knifefishes. Lack of consensus among hypotheses of osteoglossomorph relationships advanced during the past 30 years may be due in part to the difficulty of identifying shared derived characters among the morphologically differentiated extant families of this group. In this study, we present a novel phylogenetic hypothesis for this group, based on the analysis of more than 4000 characters from five molecular markers (the mitochondrial cytochrome b, 12S and 16S rRNA genes, and the nuclear genes RAG2 and MLL). Our taxonomic sampling includes one representative of each extant non-mormyrid osteoglossomorph genus, one representative for the monophyletic family Mormyridae, and four outgroup taxa within the basal Teleostei. Maximum parsimony analysis of combined and equally weighted characters from the five molecular markers and Bayesian analysis provide a single, well-supported, hypothesis of osteoglossomorph interrelationships and show the group to be monophyletic. The tree topology is the following: (Hiodon alosoides, (Pantodon buchholzi, (((Osteoglossum bicirrhosum, Scleropages sp.), (Arapaima gigas, Heterotis niloticus)), ((Gymnarchus niloticus, Ivindomyrus opdenboschi), ((Notopterus notopterus, Chitala ornata), (Xenomystus nigri, Papyrocranus afer)))))). We compare our results with previously published phylogenetic hypotheses based on morpho-anatomical data. Additionally, we explore the consequences of the long terminal branch length for the taxon Pantodon buchholzi in our phylogenetic reconstruction and we use the obtained phylogenetic tree to reconstruct the evolutionary history of electroreception in the Notopteroidei.

  9. A Bayesian Multinomial Probit MODEL FOR THE ANALYSIS OF PANEL CHOICE DATA.

    PubMed

    Fong, Duncan K H; Kim, Sunghoon; Chen, Zhe; DeSarbo, Wayne S

    2016-03-01

    A new Bayesian multinomial probit model is proposed for the analysis of panel choice data. Using a parameter expansion technique, we are able to devise a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to compute our Bayesian estimates efficiently. We also show that the proposed procedure enables the estimation of individual level coefficients for the single-period multinomial probit model even when the available prior information is vague. We apply our new procedure to consumer purchase data and reanalyze a well-known scanner panel dataset that reveals new substantive insights. In addition, we delineate a number of advantageous features of our proposed procedure over several benchmark models. Finally, through a simulation analysis employing a fractional factorial design, we demonstrate that the results from our proposed model are quite robust with respect to differing factors across various conditions.

  10. Phylogenetic Analysis of Hepatitis B Virus Genotypes Circulating in Different Risk Groups of Panama, Evidence of the Introduction of Genotype A2 in the Country

    PubMed Central

    Martínez, Alexander A.; Zaldívar, Yamitzel; Arteaga, Griselda; de Castillo, Zoila; Ortiz, Alma; Mendoza, Yaxelis; Castillero, Omar; Castillo, Juan A.; Cristina, Juan; Pascale, Juan M.

    2015-01-01

    The Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) can cause acute or chronic infection it is also associated with the development of liver cancer, thousands of new infections occur on a yearly basis, and many of these cases are located in certain areas of the Caribbean and Latin America. In these areas, the HBV prevalence is still high which makes this virus a serious public health concern to the entire region. Studies performed in Panama suggest a complex pattern in the distribution of HBV among the country’s different risk groups. We use phylogenetic analysis in order to determine which HBV genotypes were circulating in these specific groups; for this we used a fragment of the PreS2/2 region of the HBV genome. Subsequently whole HBV genome sequences were used for Bayesian analysis of phylodynamics and phylogeography. Two main genotypes were found: genotype A (54.5%) and genotype F (45.5%). There was a difference in the distribution of genotypes according to risk groups: 72.9% of high risk groups were associated to genotype A, and 55.0% of samples of genotype F were associated to the low risk group (p<0.002). The Bayesian analysis of phylogeny-traits association revealed a statistically significant geographical association (p<0.0001) with both genotypes and different regions of the country. The Bayesian time of most recent common ancestor analysis (tMRCA) revealed a recent tMRCA for genotype A2 circulating in Panama (1997, 95% HPD: 1986—2005), when it is compared with Panamanian genotype F1c sequences (1930, 95% HPD: 1810 – 2005). These results suggest a possible change in the distribution of HBV genotypes in Panama and Latin America as a whole. They also serve to encourage the implementation of vaccination programs in high-risk groups, in order to prevent an increase in the number of new HBV cases in Latin America and worldwide. PMID:26230260

  11. Phylogenetic relationships among cultivated Allium species from restriction enzyme analysis of the chloroplast genome.

    PubMed

    Havey, M J

    1991-06-01

    The genus Allium contains many economically important species, including the bulb onion, chive, garlic, Japanese bunching onion, and leek. Phylogenetic relationships among the cultivated alliums are not well understood, and taxonomic classifications are based on relatively few morphological characters. Chloroplast DNA is highly conserved and useful in determining phylogenetic relationships. The size of the chloroplast genome of Allium cepa was estimated at 140 kb and restriction enzyme sites were mapped for KpnI, PstI, PvuII, SalI, XbaI, and XhoI. Variability at restriction enzyme sites in the chloroplast DNA was studied for at least three accessions of each of six cultivated, old-world Allium species. Of 189 restriction enzyme sites detected with 12 enzymes, 15 mutations were identified and used to estimate phylogenetic relationships. Cladistic analysis based on Wagner and Dollo parsimony resulted in a single, most-parsimonious tree of 16 steps and supported division of the species into sections. Allium species in section Porrum were distinguished from species in sections Cepa and Phyllodolon. Two species in section Rhiziridium, A. schoenoprasum and A. tuberosum, differed by five mutations and were placed in separate lineages. Allium cepa and A. fistulosum shared the loss of a restriction enzyme site and were phylogenetically closer to each other than to A. schoenoprasum. This study demonstrates the usefulness of restriction enzyme site analysis of the chloroplast genome in the elucidation of phylogenetic relationships in Allium. PMID:24221436

  12. Development of a clinical pathways analysis system with adaptive Bayesian nets and data mining techniques.

    PubMed

    Kopec, D; Shagas, G; Reinharth, D; Tamang, S

    2004-01-01

    The use and development of software in the medical field offers tremendous opportunities for making health care delivery more efficient, more effective, and less error-prone. We discuss and explore the use of clinical pathways analysis with Adaptive Bayesian Networks and Data Mining Techniques to perform such analyses. The computation of "lift" (a measure of completed pathways improvement potential) leads us to optimism regarding the potential for this approach.

  13. Environmental Modeling and Bayesian Analysis for Assessing Human Health Impacts from Radioactive Waste Disposal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stockton, T.; Black, P.; Tauxe, J.; Catlett, K.

    2004-12-01

    Bayesian decision analysis provides a unified framework for coherent decision-making. Two key components of Bayesian decision analysis are probability distributions and utility functions. Calculating posterior distributions and performing decision analysis can be computationally challenging, especially for complex environmental models. In addition, probability distributions and utility functions for environmental models must be specified through expert elicitation, stakeholder consensus, or data collection, all of which have their own set of technical and political challenges. Nevertheless, a grand appeal of the Bayesian approach for environmental decision- making is the explicit treatment of uncertainty, including expert judgment. The impact of expert judgment on the environmental decision process, though integral, goes largely unassessed. Regulations and orders of the Environmental Protection Agency, Department Of Energy, and Nuclear Regulatory Agency orders require assessing the impact on human health of radioactive waste contamination over periods of up to ten thousand years. Towards this end complex environmental simulation models are used to assess "risk" to human and ecological health from migration of radioactive waste. As the computational burden of environmental modeling is continually reduced probabilistic process modeling using Monte Carlo simulation is becoming routinely used to propagate uncertainty from model inputs through model predictions. The utility of a Bayesian approach to environmental decision-making is discussed within the context of a buried radioactive waste example. This example highlights the desirability and difficulties of merging the cost of monitoring, the cost of the decision analysis, the cost and viability of clean up, and the probability of human health impacts within a rigorous decision framework.

  14. Determining the Position of Storks on the Phylogenetic Tree of Waterbirds by Retroposon Insertion Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Kuramoto, Tae; Nishihara, Hidenori; Watanabe, Maiko; Okada, Norihiro

    2015-01-01

    Despite many studies on avian phylogenetics in recent decades that used morphology, mitochondrial genomes, and/or nuclear genes, the phylogenetic positions of several birds (e.g., storks) remain unsettled. In addition to the aforementioned approaches, analysis of retroposon insertions, which are nearly homoplasy-free phylogenetic markers, has also been used in avian phylogenetics. However, the first step in the analysis of retroposon insertions, that is, isolation of retroposons from genomic libraries, is a costly and time-consuming procedure. Therefore, we developed a high-throughput and cost-effective protocol to collect retroposon insertion information based on next-generation sequencing technology, which we call here the STRONG (Screening of Transposons Obtained by Next Generation Sequencing) method, and applied it to 3 waterbird species, for which we identified 35,470 loci containing chicken repeat 1 retroposons (CR1). Our analysis of the presence/absence of 30 CR1 insertions demonstrated the intra- and interordinal phylogenetic relationships in the waterbird assemblage, namely 1) Loons diverged first among the waterbirds, 2) penguins (Sphenisciformes) and petrels (Procellariiformes) diverged next, and 3) among the remaining families of waterbirds traditionally classified in Ciconiiformes/Pelecaniformes, storks (Ciconiidae) diverged first. Furthermore, our genome-scale, in silico retroposon analysis based on published genome data uncovered a complex divergence history among pelican, heron, and ibis lineages, presumably involving ancient interspecies hybridization between the heron and ibis lineages. Thus, our retroposon-based waterbird phylogeny and the established phylogenetic position of storks will help to understand the evolutionary processes of aquatic adaptation and related morphological convergent evolution. PMID:26527652

  15. Ultraviolet light inactivation of protozoa in drinking water: a Bayesian meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Qian, Song S; Donnelly, Maureen; Schmelling, Daniel C; Messner, Michael; Linden, Karl G; Cotton, Christine

    2004-01-01

    To assess the dose of UV light needed to achieve specified levels of Giardia spp. cysts and Cryptosporidium spp. oocysts inactivation in drinking water, a Bayesian meta-analysis is used to analyze experimental data from several studies. Of the 20 studies identified by an extensive data collection effort, 14 (five reported experiments on Giardia and nine on Cryptosporidium) were selected for analysis based on a set of criteria. A substantial amount of the log inactivation data are reported as greater than a given inactivation level (i.e., censored data). The Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach used in this study not only properly addresses the common concerns in a meta-analysis but also provides a robust method for incorporating censored data. Different statistical models will result in different estimates of the UV doses needed to achieve a specific inactivation level. The Bayesian approach allows us to present the uncertainty in terms of risk, which is better suited for supporting US EPA in developing regulations.

  16. Bayesian Propensity Score Analysis: Simulation and Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaplan, David; Chen, Cassie J. S.

    2011-01-01

    Propensity score analysis (PSA) has been used in a variety of settings, such as education, epidemiology, and sociology. Most typically, propensity score analysis has been implemented within the conventional frequentist perspective of statistics. This perspective, as is well known, does not account for uncertainty in either the parameters of the…

  17. The mitochondrial DNA of Xenoturbella bocki: genomic architecture and phylogenetic analysis.

    PubMed

    Perseke, Marleen; Hankeln, Thomas; Weich, Bettina; Fritzsch, Guido; Stadler, Peter F; Israelsson, Olle; Bernhard, Detlef; Schlegel, Martin

    2007-08-01

    The phylogenetic position of Xenoturbella bocki has been a matter of controversy since its description in 1949. We sequenced a second complete mitochondrial genome of this species and performed phylogenetic analyses based on the amino acid sequences of all 13 mitochondrial protein-coding genes and on its gene order. Our results confirm the deuterostome relationship of Xenoturbella. However, in contrast to a recently published study (Bourlat et al. in Nature 444:85-88, 2006), our data analysis suggests a more basal branching of Xenoturbella within the deuterostomes, rather than a sister-group relationship to the Ambulacraria (Hemichordata and Echinodermata). PMID:18087755

  18. The mitochondrial DNA of Xenoturbella bocki: genomic architecture and phylogenetic analysis.

    PubMed

    Perseke, Marleen; Hankeln, Thomas; Weich, Bettina; Fritzsch, Guido; Stadler, Peter F; Israelsson, Olle; Bernhard, Detlef; Schlegel, Martin

    2007-08-01

    The phylogenetic position of Xenoturbella bocki has been a matter of controversy since its description in 1949. We sequenced a second complete mitochondrial genome of this species and performed phylogenetic analyses based on the amino acid sequences of all 13 mitochondrial protein-coding genes and on its gene order. Our results confirm the deuterostome relationship of Xenoturbella. However, in contrast to a recently published study (Bourlat et al. in Nature 444:85-88, 2006), our data analysis suggests a more basal branching of Xenoturbella within the deuterostomes, rather than a sister-group relationship to the Ambulacraria (Hemichordata and Echinodermata).

  19. Phylogenetic analysis of of Sarcocystis nesbitti (Coccidia: Sarcocystidae) suggests a snake as its probable definitive host

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Sarcocystis nesbitti was first described by Mandour in 1969 from rhesus monkey muscle. Its definitive host remains unknown. 18SrRNA gene of Sarcocystis nesbitti was amplified, sequenced, and subjected to phylogenetic analysis. Among those congeners available for comparison, it shares closest affinit...

  20. Bayesian estimation of dynamic matching function for U-V analysis in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kyo, Koki; Noda, Hideo; Kitagawa, Genshiro

    2012-05-01

    In this paper we propose a Bayesian method for analyzing unemployment dynamics. We derive a Beveridge curve for unemployment and vacancy (U-V) analysis from a Bayesian model based on a labor market matching function. In our framework, the efficiency of matching and the elasticities of new hiring with respect to unemployment and vacancy are regarded as time varying parameters. To construct a flexible model and obtain reasonable estimates in an underdetermined estimation problem, we treat the time varying parameters as random variables and introduce smoothness priors. The model is then described in a state space representation, enabling the parameter estimation to be carried out using Kalman filter and fixed interval smoothing. In such a representation, dynamic features of the cyclic unemployment rate and the structural-frictional unemployment rate can be accurately captured.

  1. MorePower 6.0 for ANOVA with relational confidence intervals and Bayesian analysis.

    PubMed

    Campbell, Jamie I D; Thompson, Valerie A

    2012-12-01

    MorePower 6.0 is a flexible freeware statistical calculator that computes sample size, effect size, and power statistics for factorial ANOVA designs. It also calculates relational confidence intervals for ANOVA effects based on formulas from Jarmasz and Hollands (Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology 63:124-138, 2009), as well as Bayesian posterior probabilities for the null and alternative hypotheses based on formulas in Masson (Behavior Research Methods 43:679-690, 2011). The program is unique in affording direct comparison of these three approaches to the interpretation of ANOVA tests. Its high numerical precision and ability to work with complex ANOVA designs could facilitate researchers' attention to issues of statistical power, Bayesian analysis, and the use of confidence intervals for data interpretation. MorePower 6.0 is available at https://wiki.usask.ca/pages/viewpageattachments.action?pageId=420413544 .

  2. Inference of posterior inclusion probability of QTLs in Bayesian shrinkage analysis.

    PubMed

    Yang, Deguang; Han, Shanshan; Jiang, Dan; Yang, Runqing; Fang, Ming

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian shrinkage analysis estimates all QTLs effects simultaneously, which shrinks the effect of "insignificant" QTLs close to zero so that it does not need special model selection. Bayesian shrinkage estimation usually has an excellent performance on multiple QTLs mapping, but it could not give a probabilistic explanation of how often a QTLs is included in the model, also called posterior inclusion probability, which is important to assess the importance of a QTL. In this research, two methods, FitMix and SimMix, are proposed to approximate the posterior probabilities. Under the assumption of mixture distribution of the estimated QTL effect, FitMix and SimMix mathematically and intuitively fit mixture distribution, respectively. The simulation results showed that both methods gave very reasonable estimates for posterior probabilities. We also applied the two methods to map QTLs for the North American Barley Genome Mapping Project data. PMID:25857576

  3. Time-varying nonstationary multivariate risk analysis using a dynamic Bayesian copula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarhadi, Ali; Burn, Donald H.; Concepción Ausín, María.; Wiper, Michael P.

    2016-03-01

    A time-varying risk analysis is proposed for an adaptive design framework in nonstationary conditions arising from climate change. A Bayesian, dynamic conditional copula is developed for modeling the time-varying dependence structure between mixed continuous and discrete multiattributes of multidimensional hydrometeorological phenomena. Joint Bayesian inference is carried out to fit the marginals and copula in an illustrative example using an adaptive, Gibbs Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. Posterior mean estimates and credible intervals are provided for the model parameters and the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) is used to select the model that best captures different forms of nonstationarity over time. This study also introduces a fully Bayesian, time-varying joint return period for multivariate time-dependent risk analysis in nonstationary environments. The results demonstrate that the nature and the risk of extreme-climate multidimensional processes are changed over time under the impact of climate change, and accordingly the long-term decision making strategies should be updated based on the anomalies of the nonstationary environment.

  4. Bayesian analysis of binary prediction tree models for retrospectively sampled outcomes.

    PubMed

    Pittman, Jennifer; Huang, Erich; Nevins, Joseph; Wang, Quanli; West, Mike

    2004-10-01

    Classification tree models are flexible analysis tools which have the ability to evaluate interactions among predictors as well as generate predictions for responses of interest. We describe Bayesian analysis of a specific class of tree models in which binary response data arise from a retrospective case-control design. We are also particularly interested in problems with potentially very many candidate predictors. This scenario is common in studies concerning gene expression data, which is a key motivating example context. Innovations here include the introduction of tree models that explicitly address and incorporate the retrospective design, and the use of nonparametric Bayesian models involving Dirichlet process priors on the distributions of predictor variables. The model specification influences the generation of trees through Bayes' factor based tests of association that determine significant binary partitions of nodes during a process of forward generation of trees. We describe this constructive process and discuss questions of generating and combining multiple trees via Bayesian model averaging for prediction. Additional discussion of parameter selection and sensitivity is given in the context of an example which concerns prediction of breast tumour status utilizing high-dimensional gene expression data; the example demonstrates the exploratory/explanatory uses of such models as well as their primary utility in prediction. Shortcomings of the approach and comparison with alternative tree modelling algorithms are also discussed, as are issues of modelling and computational extensions.

  5. Applications of Bayesian Procrustes shape analysis to ensemble radar reflectivity nowcast verification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fox, Neil I.; Micheas, Athanasios C.; Peng, Yuqiang

    2016-07-01

    This paper introduces the use of Bayesian full Procrustes shape analysis in object-oriented meteorological applications. In particular, the Procrustes methodology is used to generate mean forecast precipitation fields from a set of ensemble forecasts. This approach has advantages over other ensemble averaging techniques in that it can produce a forecast that retains the morphological features of the precipitation structures and present the range of forecast outcomes represented by the ensemble. The production of the ensemble mean avoids the problems of smoothing that result from simple pixel or cell averaging, while producing credible sets that retain information on ensemble spread. Also in this paper, the full Bayesian Procrustes scheme is used as an object verification tool for precipitation forecasts. This is an extension of a previously presented Procrustes shape analysis based verification approach into a full Bayesian format designed to handle the verification of precipitation forecasts that match objects from an ensemble of forecast fields to a single truth image. The methodology is tested on radar reflectivity nowcasts produced in the Warning Decision Support System - Integrated Information (WDSS-II) by varying parameters in the K-means cluster tracking scheme.

  6. A gateway for phylogenetic analysis powered by grid computing featuring GARLI 2.0.

    PubMed

    Bazinet, Adam L; Zwickl, Derrick J; Cummings, Michael P

    2014-09-01

    We introduce molecularevolution.org, a publicly available gateway for high-throughput, maximum-likelihood phylogenetic analysis powered by grid computing. The gateway features a garli 2.0 web service that enables a user to quickly and easily submit thousands of maximum likelihood tree searches or bootstrap searches that are executed in parallel on distributed computing resources. The garli web service allows one to easily specify partitioned substitution models using a graphical interface, and it performs sophisticated post-processing of phylogenetic results. Although the garli web service has been used by the research community for over three years, here we formally announce the availability of the service, describe its capabilities, highlight new features and recent improvements, and provide details about how the grid system efficiently delivers high-quality phylogenetic results.

  7. Bayesian methodology to estimate and update safety performance functions under limited data conditions: a sensitivity analysis.

    PubMed

    Heydari, Shahram; Miranda-Moreno, Luis F; Lord, Dominique; Fu, Liping

    2014-03-01

    In road safety studies, decision makers must often cope with limited data conditions. In such circumstances, the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), which relies on asymptotic theory, is unreliable and prone to bias. Moreover, it has been reported in the literature that (a) Bayesian estimates might be significantly biased when using non-informative prior distributions under limited data conditions, and that (b) the calibration of limited data is plausible when existing evidence in the form of proper priors is introduced into analyses. Although the Highway Safety Manual (2010) (HSM) and other research studies provide calibration and updating procedures, the data requirements can be very taxing. This paper presents a practical and sound Bayesian method to estimate and/or update safety performance function (SPF) parameters combining the information available from limited data with the SPF parameters reported in the HSM. The proposed Bayesian updating approach has the advantage of requiring fewer observations to get reliable estimates. This paper documents this procedure. The adopted technique is validated by conducting a sensitivity analysis through an extensive simulation study with 15 different models, which include various prior combinations. This sensitivity analysis contributes to our understanding of the comparative aspects of a large number of prior distributions. Furthermore, the proposed method contributes to unification of the Bayesian updating process for SPFs. The results demonstrate the accuracy of the developed methodology. Therefore, the suggested approach offers considerable promise as a methodological tool to estimate and/or update baseline SPFs and to evaluate the efficacy of road safety countermeasures under limited data conditions.

  8. Bayesian sensitivity analysis of a nonlinear finite element model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Becker, W.; Oakley, J. E.; Surace, C.; Gili, P.; Rowson, J.; Worden, K.

    2012-10-01

    A major problem in uncertainty and sensitivity analysis is that the computational cost of propagating probabilistic uncertainty through large nonlinear models can be prohibitive when using conventional methods (such as Monte Carlo methods). A powerful solution to this problem is to use an emulator, which is a mathematical representation of the model built from a small set of model runs at specified points in input space. Such emulators are massively cheaper to run and can be used to mimic the "true" model, with the result that uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis can be performed for a greatly reduced computational cost. The work here investigates the use of an emulator known as a Gaussian process (GP), which is an advanced probabilistic form of regression. The GP is particularly suited to uncertainty analysis since it is able to emulate a wide class of models, and accounts for its own emulation uncertainty. Additionally, uncertainty and sensitivity measures can be estimated analytically, given certain assumptions. The GP approach is explained in detail here, and a case study of a finite element model of an airship is used to demonstrate the method. It is concluded that the GP is a very attractive way of performing uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on large models, provided that the dimensionality is not too high.

  9. Bayesian meta-analysis, with application to studies of ETS and lung cancer.

    PubMed

    Tweedie, R L; Scott, D J; Biggerstaff, B J; Mengersen, K L

    1996-03-01

    Meta-analysis enables researchers to combine the results of several studies to assess the information they provide as a whole. It has been used to give a systematic overview of many areas in which data on a possible association between an exposure and an outcome have been collected in a number of studies but where the overall picture remains obscure, both as to the existence or size of the effect. This paper outlines some innovations in meta-analysis, based on using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques for implementing Bayesian hierarchical models, and compares these with a more well-known random effects (RE) model. The new techniques allow different aspects of variation to be incorporated into descriptions of the association, and in particular enable researchers to better quantify differences between studies. Both the classical and Bayesian methods are applied, in this paper, to the current collection of studies of the association between incidence of lung cancer in female never-smokers and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS), both in the home through spousal smoking and in the workplace. In this paper it is demonstrated that compared with the RE model, the Bayesian methods: (a) allow more detailed modeling of study heterogeneity to be incorporated; (b) are relatively robust against a wide choice of specifications of such information on heterogeneity; (c) allow for more detailed and satisfactory statements to be made, not only about the overall risk but about the individual studies, on the basis of the combined information. For the workplace exposure data set, the Bayesian methods give a somewhat lower overall estimate of relative risk of lung cancer associated with ETS, indicating the care that needs to be taken in using point estimates based on any one method of analysis. On the larger spousal data set the methods give similar answers. Some of the other concerns with meta-analysis are also considered. These include: consistency between different

  10. [Phylogenetic analysis of lupine's bacterial wet rot--"Pseudomonas xanthochlora"].

    PubMed

    Dankevitch, L A

    2011-01-01

    The sequencing of 16S rRNA gene nucleotide chain of the 12 "P. xanthochlora" strains, collection Pseudomonas marginalis 8572 strain and Pseudomonas marginalis pv. marginalis 9175T P. fluorescens B-17T typical strains has been determined. The analysis of the 16S rRNA gene nucleotide chain showed high level of homology (98-99%) of "P. xanthochlora" investigated strains with the same of representatives of both P. fluorescens and P. marginalis species.

  11. Reticulate evolutionary history and extensive introgression in mosquito species revealed by phylogenetic network analysis.

    PubMed

    Wen, Dingqiao; Yu, Yun; Hahn, Matthew W; Nakhleh, Luay

    2016-06-01

    The role of hybridization and subsequent introgression has been demonstrated in an increasing number of species. Recently, Fontaine et al. (Science, 347, 2015, 1258524) conducted a phylogenomic analysis of six members of the Anopheles gambiae species complex. Their analysis revealed a reticulate evolutionary history and pointed to extensive introgression on all four autosomal arms. The study further highlighted the complex evolutionary signals that the co-occurrence of incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) and introgression can give rise to in phylogenomic analyses. While tree-based methodologies were used in the study, phylogenetic networks provide a more natural model to capture reticulate evolutionary histories. In this work, we reanalyse the Anopheles data using a recently devised framework that combines the multispecies coalescent with phylogenetic networks. This framework allows us to capture ILS and introgression simultaneously, and forms the basis for statistical methods for inferring reticulate evolutionary histories. The new analysis reveals a phylogenetic network with multiple hybridization events, some of which differ from those reported in the original study. To elucidate the extent and patterns of introgression across the genome, we devise a new method that quantifies the use of reticulation branches in the phylogenetic network by each genomic region. Applying the method to the mosquito data set reveals the evolutionary history of all the chromosomes. This study highlights the utility of 'network thinking' and the new insights it can uncover, in particular in phylogenomic analyses of large data sets with extensive gene tree incongruence. PMID:26808290

  12. A phylogenetic analysis of the myxobacteria: basis for their classification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shimkets, L.; Woese, C. R.

    1992-01-01

    The primary sequence and secondary structural features of the 16S rRNA were compared for 12 different myxobacteria representing all the known cultivated genera. Analysis of these data show the myxobacteria to form a monophyletic grouping consisting of three distinct families, which lies within the delta subdivision of the purple bacterial phylum. The composition of the families is consistent with differences in cell and spore morphology, cell behavior, and pigment and secondary metabolite production but is not correlated with the morphological complexity of the fruiting bodies. The Nannocystis exedens lineage has evolved at an unusually rapid pace and its rRNA shows numerous primary and secondary structural idiosyncrasies.

  13. Taking the first steps towards a standard for reporting on phylogenies: Minimum Information About a Phylogenetic Analysis (MIAPA).

    PubMed

    Leebens-Mack, Jim; Vision, Todd; Brenner, Eric; Bowers, John E; Cannon, Steven; Clement, Mark J; Cunningham, Clifford W; dePamphilis, Claude; deSalle, Rob; Doyle, Jeff J; Eisen, Jonathan A; Gu, Xun; Harshman, John; Jansen, Robert K; Kellogg, Elizabeth A; Koonin, Eugene V; Mishler, Brent D; Philippe, Hervé; Pires, J Chris; Qiu, Yin-Long; Rhee, Seung Y; Sjölander, Kimmen; Soltis, Douglas E; Soltis, Pamela S; Stevenson, Dennis W; Wall, Kerr; Warnow, Tandy; Zmasek, Christian

    2006-01-01

    In the eight years since phylogenomics was introduced as the intersection of genomics and phylogenetics, the field has provided fundamental insights into gene function, genome history and organismal relationships. The utility of phylogenomics is growing with the increase in the number and diversity of taxa for which whole genome and large transcriptome sequence sets are being generated. We assert that the synergy between genomic and phylogenetic perspectives in comparative biology would be enhanced by the development and refinement of minimal reporting standards for phylogenetic analyses. Encouraged by the development of the Minimum Information About a Microarray Experiment (MIAME) standard, we propose a similar roadmap for the development of a Minimal Information About a Phylogenetic Analysis (MIAPA) standard. Key in the successful development and implementation of such a standard will be broad participation by developers of phylogenetic analysis software, phylogenetic database developers, practitioners of phylogenomics, and journal editors. PMID:16901231

  14. Bayesian analysis of fingerprint, face and signature evidences with automatic biometric systems.

    PubMed

    Gonzalez-Rodriguez, Joaquin; Fierrez-Aguilar, Julian; Ramos-Castro, Daniel; Ortega-Garcia, Javier

    2005-12-20

    The Bayesian approach provides a unified and logical framework for the analysis of evidence and to provide results in the form of likelihood ratios (LR) from the forensic laboratory to court. In this contribution we want to clarify how the biometric scientist or laboratory can adapt their conventional biometric systems or technologies to work according to this Bayesian approach. Forensic systems providing their results in the form of LR will be assessed through Tippett plots, which give a clear representation of the LR-based performance both for targets (the suspect is the author/source of the test pattern) and non-targets. However, the computation procedures of the LR values, especially with biometric evidences, are still an open issue. Reliable estimation techniques showing good generalization properties for the estimation of the between- and within-source variabilities of the test pattern are required, as variance restriction techniques in the within-source density estimation to stand for the variability of the source with the course of time. Fingerprint, face and on-line signature recognition systems will be adapted to work according to this Bayesian approach showing both the likelihood ratios range in each application and the adequacy of these biometric techniques to the daily forensic work.

  15. Bayesian analysis of longitudinal Johne's disease diagnostic data without a gold standard test.

    PubMed

    Wang, C; Turnbull, B W; Nielsen, S S; Gröhn, Y T

    2011-05-01

    A Bayesian methodology was developed based on a latent change-point model to evaluate the performance of milk ELISA and fecal culture tests for longitudinal Johne's disease diagnostic data. The situation of no perfect reference test was considered; that is, no "gold standard." A change-point process with a Weibull survival hazard function was used to model the progression of the hidden disease status. The model adjusted for the fixed effects of covariate variables and random effects of subject on the diagnostic testing procedure. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods were used to compute the posterior estimates of the model parameters that provide the basis for inference concerning the accuracy of the diagnostic procedure. Based on the Bayesian approach, the posterior probability distribution of the change-point onset time can be obtained and used as a criterion for infection diagnosis. An application is presented to an analysis of ELISA and fecal culture test outcomes in the diagnostic testing of paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) for a Danish longitudinal study from January 2000 to March 2003. The posterior probability criterion based on the Bayesian model with 4 repeated observations has an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.984, and is superior to the raw ELISA (AUC=0.911) and fecal culture (sensitivity=0.358, specificity=0.980) tests for Johne's disease diagnosis. PMID:21524521

  16. Phylogenetic diversity analysis of subterranean hot springs in Iceland.

    PubMed

    Marteinsson, V T; Hauksdóttir, S; Hobel, C F; Kristmannsdóttir, H; Hreggvidsson, G O; Kristjánsson, J K

    2001-09-01

    Geothermal energy has been harnessed and used for domestic heating in Iceland. In wells that are typically drilled to a depth of 1,500 to 2,000 m, the temperature of the source water is 50 to 130 degrees C. The bottoms of the boreholes can therefore be regarded as subterranean hot springs and provide a unique opportunity to study the subterranean biosphere. Large volumes of geothermal fluid from five wells and a mixture of geothermal water from 50 geothermal wells (hot tap water) were sampled and concentrated through a 0.2-microm-pore-size filter. Cells were observed in wells RG-39 (91.4 degrees C) and MG-18 (71.8 degrees C) and in hot tap water (76 degrees C), but no cells were detected in wells SN-4, SN-5 (95 to 117 degrees C), and RV-5 (130 degrees C). Archaea and Bacteria were detected by whole-cell fluorescent in situ hybridization. DNAs were extracted from the biomass, and small-subunit rRNA genes (16S rDNAs) were amplified by PCR using primers specific for the Archaea and Bacteria domains. The PCR products were cloned and sequenced. The sequence analysis showed 11 new operational taxonomic units (OTUs) out of 14, 3 of which were affiliated with known surface OTUs. Samples from RG-39 and hot tap water were inoculated into enrichment media and incubated at 65 and 85 degrees C. Growth was observed only in media based on geothermal water. 16S rDNA analysis showed enrichments dominated with Desulfurococcales relatives. Two strains belonging to Desulfurococcus mobilis and to the Thermus/Deinococcus group were isolated from borehole RG-39. The results indicate that subsurface volcanic zones are an environment that provides a rich subsurface for novel thermophiles.

  17. Phylogenetic analysis of CDK and cyclin proteins in premetazoan lineages

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The molecular history of animal evolution from single-celled ancestors remains a major question in biology, and little is known regarding the evolution of cell cycle regulation during animal emergence. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive evolutionary analysis of CDK and cyclin proteins in metazoans and their unicellular relatives. Results Our analysis divided the CDK family into eight subfamilies. Seven subfamilies (CDK1/2/3, CDK5, CDK7, CDK 20, CDK8/19, CDK9, and CDK10/11) are conserved in metazoans and fungi, with the remaining subfamily, CDK4/6, found only in eumetazoans. With respect to cyclins, cyclin C, H, L, Y subfamilies, and cyclin K and T as a whole subfamily, are generally conserved in animal, fungi, and amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum. In contrast, cyclin subfamilies B, A, E, and D, which are cell cycle-related, have distinct evolutionary histories. The cyclin B subfamily is generally conserved in D. discoideum, fungi, and animals, whereas cyclin A and E subfamilies are both present in animals and their unicellular relatives such as choanoflagellate Monosiga brevicollis and filasterean Capsaspora owczarzaki, but are absent in fungi and D. discoideum. Although absent in fungi and D. discoideum, cyclin D subfamily orthologs can be found in the early-emerging, non-opisthokont apusozoan Thecamonas trahens. Within opisthokonta, the cyclin D subfamily is conserved only in eumetazoans, and is absent in fungi, choanoflagellates, and the basal metazoan Amphimedon queenslandica. Conclusions Our data indicate that the CDK4/6 subfamily and eumetazoans emerged simultaneously, with the evolutionary conservation of the cyclin D subfamily also tightly linked with eumetazoan appearance. Establishment of the CDK4/6-cyclin D complex may have been the key step in the evolution of cell cycle control during eumetazoan emergence. PMID:24433236

  18. Inference on the Univariate Frailty Model: A Bayesian Reference Analysis Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tomazella, Vera Lucia D.; Martins, Camila Bertini; Bernardo, Jose Miguel

    2008-11-01

    In this work we present an approach involving objective Bayesian reference analysis to the Frailty model with univariate survival time and sources of heterogeneity that are not captured by covariates. The derivation unconditional hazard and survival leads to the Lomax distribution, also known as the Pareto distribution of the second kind. This distribution has an important position in life testing to adjust data from business failures. Reference analysis, introduced by Bernardo (1979) produce a new solution for this problem. The results are illustrated with survival data analyzed in the literature and simulated data.

  19. Phylogenetic analysis of Mexican Babesia bovis isolates using msa and ssrRNA gene sequences.

    PubMed

    Genis, Alma D; Mosqueda, Juan J; Borgonio, Verónica M; Falcón, Alfonso; Alvarez, Antonio; Camacho, Minerva; de Lourdes Muñoz, Maria; Figueroa, Julio V

    2008-12-01

    Variable merozoite surface antigens of Babesia bovis are exposed glycoproteins having a role in erythrocyte invasion. Members of this gene family include msa-1 and msa-2 (msa-2c, msa-2a(1), msa-2a(2), and msa-2b). Small subunit ribosomal (ssr)RNA gene is subject to evolutive pressure and has been used in phylogenetic studies. To determine the phylogenetic relationship among B. bovis Mexican isolates using different genetic markers, PCR amplicons, corresponding to msa-1, msa-2c, msa-2b, and ssrRNA genes, were cloned and plasmids carrying the corresponding inserts were sequenced. Comparative analysis of nucleotide and deduced amino acid sequences revealed distinct degrees of variability and identity among the coding gene sequences obtained from 12 geographically different B. bovis isolates and a reference strain. Overall sequence identities of 47.7%, 72.3%, 87.7%, and 94% were determined for msa-1, msa-2b, msa-2c, and ssrRNA, respectively. A robust phylogenetic tree was obtained with msa-2b sequences. The phylogenetic analysis suggests that Mexican B. bovis isolates group in clades not concordant with the Mexican geography. However, the Mexican isolates group together in an American clade separated from the Australian clade. Sequence heterogeneity in msa-1, msa-2b, and msa-2c coding regions of Mexican B. bovis isolates present in different geographical regions can be a result of either differential evolutive pressure or cattle movement from commercial trade.

  20. Phylogenetic analysis to uncover organellar origins of nuclear-encoded genes.

    PubMed

    Foth, Bernardo J

    2007-01-01

    Most proteins that are located in mitochondria or plastids are encoded by the nuclear genome, because the organellar genomes have undergone severe reduction during evolution. In many cases, although not all, the nuclear genes encoding organelle-targeted proteins actually originated from the respective organellar genome and thus carry the phylogenetic fingerprint that still bespeaks their evolutionary origin. Phylogenetic analysis is a powerful in silico method that can yield important insights into the evolutionary history or molecular kinship of any gene or protein and that can thus also be used more specifically in the context of organellar targeting as one means to recognize protein candidates (e.g., from genome data) that may be targeted to mitochondria or plastids. This chapter provides protocols for creating multiple sequence alignments and carrying out phylogenetic analysis with the robust and comprehensive software packages Clustal and PHYLIP, which are both available free of charge for multiple computer platforms. Besides presenting step-by-step instructions on how to run these computer programs, this chapter also covers topics such as data collection and presentation of phylogenetic trees. PMID:17951706

  1. Integrating the universal metabolism into a phylogenetic analysis.

    PubMed

    Cunchillos, Chomin; Lecointre, Guillaume

    2005-01-01

    The darwinian concept of "descent with modification" applies to metabolic pathways: pathways sharing similarities must have inherited them from an exclusive, hypothetical ancestral pathway. Comparative anatomy of biochemical pathways is performed using five criteria of homology. Primary homologies of "type I" were defined as several pathways sharing the same enzyme with high specificity for its substrate. Primary homologies of "type II" were defined as the sharing of similar enzymatic functions, cofactors, functional family, or recurrence of a set of reactions. Standard cladistic analysis is used to infer the evolutionary history of metabolic development and the relative ordering of biochemical reactions through time, from a single matrix integrating the whole basic universal metabolism. The cladogram shows that the earliest pathways to emerge are metabolism of amino acids of groups I and II (Asp, Asn, Glu, and Gln). The earliest enzymatic functions are mostly linked to amino acid catabolism: deamination, transamination, and decarboxylation. For some amino acids, catabolism and biosynthesis occur at the same time (Asp, Glu, Lys, and Met). Catabolism precedes anabolism for Asn, Gln, Arg, Trp, His, Tyr, and Phe, and anabolism precedes catabolism for Pro, Ala, Leu, Val, Ile, Cys, Gly, Ser, and Thr. The urea cycle evolves from arginine synthesis. Metabolism of fatty acids and sugars develops after the full development of metabolism of amino acids of groups I and II, and they are associated with the anabolism of amino acids of groups III and IV. Syntheses of aromatic amino acids are branched within sugar metabolism. The Krebs cycle occurs relatively late after the setting of metabolism of amino acids of groups I and II. One portion of the Krebs cycle has a catabolic origin, whereas the other portion has an anabolic origin in pathways of amino acids of groups III and IV. It is not possible to order glycolysis and gluconeogenesis with regard to the Krebs cycle, as they

  2. Phylogenetic Analysis of Brassica rapa MATH-Domain Proteins.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Liming; Huang, Yong; Hu, Yan; He, Xiaoli; Shen, Wenhui; Liu, Chunlin; Ruan, Ying

    2013-05-01

    The MATH (meprin and TRAF-C homology) domain is a fold of seven anti-parallel β-helices involved in protein-protein interaction. Here, we report the identification and characterization of 90 MATH-domain proteins from the Brassica rapa genome. By sequence analysis together with MATH-domain proteins from other species, the B. rapa MATH-domain proteins can be grouped into 6 classes. Class-I protein has one or several MATH domains without any other recognizable domain; Class-II protein contains a MATH domain together with a conserved BTB (Broad Complex, Tramtrack, and Bric-a-Brac ) domain; Class-III protein belongs to the MATH/Filament domain family; Class-IV protein contains a MATH domain frequently combined with some other domains; Class-V protein has a relative long sequence but contains only one MATH domain; Class-VI protein is characterized by the presence of Peptidase and UBQ (Ubiquitinylation) domains together with one MATH domain. As part of our study regarding seed development of B. rapa, six genes are screened by SSH (Suppression Subtractive Hybridization) and their expression levels are analyzed in combination with seed developmental stages, and expression patterns suggested that Bra001786, Bra03578 and Bra036572 may be seed development specific genes, while Bra001787, Bra020541 and Bra040904 may be involved in seed and flower organ development. This study provides the first characterization of the MATH domain proteins in B. rapa.

  3. Phylogenetic and structural analysis of merkel cell polyomavirus VP1 in Brazilian samples.

    PubMed

    Baez, Camila F; Diaz, Nuria C; Venceslau, Marianna T; Luz, Flávio B; Guimarães, Maria Angelica A M; Zalis, Mariano G; Varella, Rafael B

    2016-08-01

    Our understanding of the phylogenetic and structural characteristics of the Merkel Cell Polyomavirus (MCPyV) is increasing but still scarce, especially in samples originating from South America. In order to investigate the properties of MCPyV circulating in the continent in more detail, MCPyV Viral Protein 1 (VP1) sequences from five basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and four saliva samples from Brazilian individuals were evaluated from the phylogenetic and structural standpoint, along with all complete MCPyV VP1 sequences available at Genbank database so far. The VP1 phylogenetic analysis confirmed the previously reported pattern of geographic distribution of MCPyV genotypes and the complexity of the South-American clade. The nine Brazilian samples were equally distributed in the South-American (3 saliva samples); North American/European (2 BCC and 1 saliva sample); and in the African clades (3 BCC). The classification of mutations according to the functional regions of VP1 protein revealed a differentiated pattern for South-American sequences, with higher number of mutations on the neutralizing epitope loops and lower on the region of C-terminus, responsible for capsid formation, when compared to other continents. In conclusion, the phylogenetic analysis showed that the distribution of Brazilian VP1 sequences agrees with the ethnic composition of the country, indicating that VP1 can be successfully used for MCPyV phylogenetic studies. Finally, the structural analysis suggests that some mutations could have impact on the protein folding, membrane binding or antibody escape, and therefore they should be further studied. PMID:27173789

  4. CDAO-Store: Ontology-driven Data Integration for Phylogenetic Analysis

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background The Comparative Data Analysis Ontology (CDAO) is an ontology developed, as part of the EvoInfo and EvoIO groups supported by the National Evolutionary Synthesis Center, to provide semantic descriptions of data and transformations commonly found in the domain of phylogenetic analysis. The core concepts of the ontology enable the description of phylogenetic trees and associated character data matrices. Results Using CDAO as the semantic back-end, we developed a triple-store, named CDAO-Store. CDAO-Store is a RDF-based store of phylogenetic data, including a complete import of TreeBASE. CDAO-Store provides a programmatic interface, in the form of web services, and a web-based front-end, to perform both user-defined as well as domain-specific queries; domain-specific queries include search for nearest common ancestors, minimum spanning clades, filter multiple trees in the store by size, author, taxa, tree identifier, algorithm or method. In addition, CDAO-Store provides a visualization front-end, called CDAO-Explorer, which can be used to view both character data matrices and trees extracted from the CDAO-Store. CDAO-Store provides import capabilities, enabling the addition of new data to the triple-store; files in PHYLIP, MEGA, nexml, and NEXUS formats can be imported and their CDAO representations added to the triple-store. Conclusions CDAO-Store is made up of a versatile and integrated set of tools to support phylogenetic analysis. To the best of our knowledge, CDAO-Store is the first semantically-aware repository of phylogenetic data with domain-specific querying capabilities. The portal to CDAO-Store is available at http://www.cs.nmsu.edu/~cdaostore. PMID:21496247

  5. A molecular phylogenetic analysis of the vampire moths and their fruit-piercing relatives (Lepidoptera: Erebidae: Calpinae).

    PubMed

    Zaspel, J M; Zahiri, R; Hoy, M A; Janzen, D; Weller, S J; Wahlberg, N

    2012-11-01

    Within butterflies and moths, adult hematophagy is limited to species within the vampire moth genus Calyptra. These moths are placed within the subfamily Calpinae, whose other members are known to exhibit a broad range of feeding behaviors including those that can be considered 'piercers' of fruits or other hosts and 'tear feeders'. Here, we reconstruct a phylogenetic hypothesis of Calpinae using molecular data to test whether hematophagy in Calyptra arose from plant or animal-related behaviors. We use a Bayesian method of ancestral state reconstruction to determine the most likely feeding behaviors for the subtribes and genera within this lineage.

  6. Transdimensional Bayesian approach to pulsar timing noise analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellis, J. A.; Cornish, N. J.

    2016-04-01

    The modeling of intrinsic noise in pulsar timing residual data is of crucial importance for gravitational wave detection and pulsar timing (astro)physics in general. The noise budget in pulsars is a collection of several well-studied effects including radiometer noise, pulse-phase jitter noise, dispersion measure variations, and low-frequency spin noise. However, as pulsar timing data continue to improve, nonstationary and non-power-law noise terms are beginning to manifest which are not well modeled by current noise analysis techniques. In this work, we use a transdimensional approach to model these nonstationary and non-power-law effects through the use of a wavelet basis and an interpolation-based adaptive spectral modeling. In both cases, the number of wavelets and the number of control points in the interpolated spectrum are free parameters that are constrained by the data and then marginalized over in the final inferences, thus fully incorporating our ignorance of the noise model. We show that these new methods outperform standard techniques when nonstationary and non-power-law noise is present. We also show that these methods return results consistent with the standard analyses when no such signals are present.

  7. A Bayesian Analysis of the Correlations Among Sunspot Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Y.; van Dyk, D. A.; Kashyap, V. L.; Young, C. A.

    2012-12-01

    Sunspot numbers form a comprehensive, long-duration proxy of solar activity and have been used numerous times to empirically investigate the properties of the solar cycle. A number of correlations have been discovered over the 24 cycles for which observational records are available. Here we carry out a sophisticated statistical analysis of the sunspot record that reaffirms these correlations, and sets up an empirical predictive framework for future cycles. An advantage of our approach is that it allows for rigorous assessment of both the statistical significance of various cycle features and the uncertainty associated with predictions. We summarize the data into three sequential relations that estimate the amplitude, duration, and time of rise to maximum for any cycle, given the values from the previous cycle. We find that there is no indication of a persistence in predictive power beyond one cycle, and we conclude that the dynamo does not retain memory beyond one cycle. Based on sunspot records up to October 2011, we obtain, for Cycle 24, an estimated maximum smoothed monthly sunspot number of 97±15, to occur in January - February 2014 ± six months.

  8. Hierarchical models and Bayesian analysis of bird survey information

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Ralph, C. John; Rich, Terrell D.

    2005-01-01

    Summary of bird survey information is a critical component of conservation activities, but often our summaries rely on statistical methods that do not accommodate the limitations of the information. Prioritization of species requires ranking and analysis of species by magnitude of population trend, but often magnitude of trend is a misleading measure of actual decline when trend is poorly estimated. Aggregation of population information among regions is also complicated by varying quality of estimates among regions. Hierarchical models provide a reasonable means of accommodating concerns about aggregation and ranking of quantities of varying precision. In these models the need to consider multiple scales is accommodated by placing distributional assumptions on collections of parameters. For collections of species trends, this allows probability statements to be made about the collections of species-specific parameters, rather than about the estimates. We define and illustrate hierarchical models for two commonly encountered situations in bird conservation: (1) Estimating attributes of collections of species estimates, including ranking of trends, estimating number of species with increasing populations, and assessing population stability with regard to predefined trend magnitudes; and (2) estimation of regional population change, aggregating information from bird surveys over strata. User-friendly computer software makes hierarchical models readily accessible to scientists.

  9. Bayesian population analysis of a harmonized physiologically based pharmacokinetic model of trichloroethylene and its metabolites.

    PubMed

    Hack, C Eric; Chiu, Weihsueh A; Jay Zhao, Q; Clewell, Harvey J

    2006-10-01

    Bayesian population analysis of a harmonized physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for trichloroethylene (TCE) and its metabolites was performed. In the Bayesian framework, prior information about the PBPK model parameters is updated using experimental kinetic data to obtain posterior parameter estimates. Experimental kinetic data measured in mice, rats, and humans were available for this analysis, and the resulting posterior model predictions were in better agreement with the kinetic data than prior model predictions. Uncertainty in the prediction of the kinetics of TCE, trichloroacetic acid (TCA), and trichloroethanol (TCOH) was reduced, while the kinetics of other key metabolites dichloroacetic acid (DCA), chloral hydrate (CHL), and dichlorovinyl mercaptan (DCVSH) remain relatively uncertain due to sparse kinetic data for use in this analysis. To help focus future research to further reduce uncertainty in model predictions, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to help identify the parameters that have the greatest impact on various internal dose metric predictions. For application to a risk assessment for TCE, the model provides accurate estimates of TCE, TCA, and TCOH kinetics. This analysis provides an important step toward estimating uncertainty of dose-response relationships in noncancer and cancer risk assessment, improving the extrapolation of toxic TCE doses from experimental animals to humans.

  10. A chain is no stronger than its weakest link: double decay analysis of phylogenetic hypotheses.

    PubMed

    Wilkinson, M; Thorley, J L; Upchurch, P

    2000-12-01

    In decay analyses the support for a particular split in most-parsimonious trees is its decay index, that is, the extra steps required of the shortest trees that do not include the split. By focusing solely on the support for splits, traditional decay analysis may provide an incomplete and potentially misleading summary of the support for phylogenetic relationships common to the most-parsimonious tree or trees. Here, we introduce double decay analysis, a new approach to assessing support for phylogenetic relationships. Double decay analysis is the determination of the decay indices of all n-taxon statements/partitions common to the most-parsimonious tree. The results of double decay analyses are presented in a partition table, but various approaches to graphical representation of the results, including the use of reduced consensus support trees, are also discussed. Double decay analysis provides a more comprehensive summary and facilitates a better understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of complex phylogenetic hypotheses than does traditional decay analysis. The limitations of traditional decay analyses and the utility of double decay analyses are illustrated with both contrived data and real data for sauropod dinosaurs.

  11. Assessing the Goodness of Fit of Phylogenetic Comparative Methods: A Meta-Analysis and Simulation Study

    PubMed Central

    Jhwueng, Dwueng-Chwuan

    2013-01-01

    Background Phylogenetic comparative methods (PCMs) have been applied widely in analyzing data from related species but their fit to data is rarely assessed. Question Can one determine whether any particular comparative method is typically more appropriate than others by examining comparative data sets? Data I conducted a meta-analysis of 122 phylogenetic data sets found by searching all papers in JEB, Blackwell Synergy and JSTOR published in 2002–2005 for the purpose of assessing the fit of PCMs. The number of species in these data sets ranged from 9 to 117. Analysis Method I used the Akaike information criterion to compare PCMs, and then fit PCMs to bivariate data sets through REML analysis. Correlation estimates between two traits and bootstrapped confidence intervals of correlations from each model were also compared. Conclusions For phylogenies of less than one hundred taxa, the Independent Contrast method and the independent, non-phylogenetic models provide the best fit.For bivariate analysis, correlations from different PCMs are qualitatively similar so that actual correlations from real data seem to be robust to the PCM chosen for the analysis. Therefore, researchers might apply the PCM they believe best describes the evolutionary mechanisms underlying their data. PMID:23826183

  12. The Complete Mitochondrial Genome of Brachmia macroscopa (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) and Its Related Phylogenetic Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Li; Dong, Wan-Wei; Jiang, Guo-Fang; Wang, Xing

    2016-01-01

    The sweet potato leaf folder, Brachmia macroscopa, is an important pest in China. The complete mitogenome, which consists of 13 protein-coding genes (PCGs), 22 transfer RNA genes, two ribosomal RNA genes, and an A + T-rich region, was sequenced and found to be 15,394 bp in length (GeneBank no. KT354968). The gene order and orientation of the B. macroscopa mitogenome were similar to those of other sequenced lepidopteran species. All of the PCGs started with ATN as the canonical start codon except for cox1, which started with CGA. In regard to stop codons, most PCGs stopped at TAA except for cox2, which stopped at TA, and nad4, which stopped at a single T. Thirteen PCGs of the available species (33 taxa) were used to demonstrate phylogenetic relationships. The ditrysian cluster was supported as a monophyletic clade at high levels by using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. The apoditrysian group, covering the Gelechioidea, formed a monophyletic clade with a bootstrap value of 88% and a posterior probability of 1.00. The superfamily Gelechioidea was supported as a monophyletic lineage by a posterior probability of 1.00. PMID:26810560

  13. Cladistic analysis of continuous modularized traits provides phylogenetic signals in Homo evolution.

    PubMed

    González-José, Rolando; Escapa, Ignacio; Neves, Walter A; Cúneo, Rubén; Pucciarelli, Héctor M

    2008-06-01

    Evolutionary novelties in the skeleton are usually expressed as changes in the timing of growth of features intrinsically integrated at different hierarchical levels of development. As a consequence, most of the shape-traits observed across species do vary quantitatively rather than qualitatively, in a multivariate space and in a modularized way. Because most phylogenetic analyses normally use discrete, hypothetically independent characters, previous attempts have disregarded the phylogenetic signals potentially enclosed in the shape of morphological structures. When analysing low taxonomic levels, where most variation is quantitative in nature, solving basic requirements like the choice of characters and the capacity of using continuous, integrated traits is of crucial importance in recovering wider phylogenetic information. This is particularly relevant when analysing extinct lineages, where available data are limited to fossilized structures. Here we show that when continuous, multivariant and modularized characters are treated as such, cladistic analysis successfully solves relationships among main Homo taxa. Our attempt is based on a combination of cladistics, evolutionary-development-derived selection of characters, and geometric morphometrics methods. In contrast with previous cladistic analyses of hominid phylogeny, our method accounts for the quantitative nature of the traits, and respects their morphological integration patterns. Because complex phenotypes are observable across different taxonomic groups and are potentially informative about phylogenetic relationships, future analyses should point strongly to the incorporation of these types of trait. PMID:18454137

  14. Investigation of glycan evolution based on a comprehensive analysis of glycosyltransferases using phylogenetic profiling

    PubMed Central

    Tomono, Takayoshi; Kojima, Hisao; Fukuchi, Satoshi; Tohsato, Yukako; Ito, Masahiro

    2015-01-01

    Glycans play important roles in such cell-cell interactions as signaling and adhesion, including processes involved in pathogenic infections, cancers, and neurological diseases. Glycans are biosynthesized by multiple glycosyltransferases (GTs), which function sequentially. Excluding mucin-type O-glycosylation, the non-reducing terminus of glycans is biosynthesized in the Golgi apparatus after the reducing terminus is biosynthesized in the ER. In the present study, we performed genome-wide analyses of human GTs by investigating the degree of conservation of homologues in other organisms, as well as by elucidating the phylogenetic relationship between cephalochordates and urochordates, which has long been controversial in deuterostome phylogeny. We analyzed 173 human GTs and functionally linked glycan synthesis enzymes by phylogenetic profiling and clustering, compiled orthologous genes from the genomes of other organisms, and converted them into a binary sequence based on the presence (1) or absence (0) of orthologous genes in the genomes. Our results suggest that the non-reducing terminus of glycans is biosynthesized by newly evolved GTs. According to our analysis, the phylogenetic profiles of GTs resemble the phylogenetic tree of life, where deuterostomes, metazoans, and eukaryotes are resolved into separate branches. Lineage-specific GTs appear to play essential roles in the divergence of these particular lineages. We suggest that urochordates lose several genes that are conserved among metazoans, such as those expressing sialyltransferases, and that the Golgi apparatus acquires the ability to synthesize glycans after the ER acquires this function. PMID:27493855

  15. Phylogenetic Analysis of Selected Menthol-Producing Species Belonging to the Lamiaceae Family.

    PubMed

    Mirzaei, Motahareh; Mirzaei, Hamed; Sahebkar, Amirhossein; Bagherian, Ali; Masoud Khoi, Mohammad Jaber; Reza Mirzaei, Hamid; Salehi, Rasoul; Reza Jaafari, Mahmoud; Kazemi Oskuee, Reza

    2015-01-01

    Menthol is an organic compound with diverse medicinal and commercial applications, and is made either synthetically or through extraction from mint oils. The aim of the present study was to investigate menthol levels in selected menthol-producing species belonging to the Lamiaceae family, and to determine phylogenetic relationships of menthol dehydrogenase gene sequence among these species. Three genus of Lamiaceae, namely Mentha, Salvia, and Micromeria, were selected for phytochemical and phylogenetic analyses. After identification of each species based on menthol dehydrogenase gene in NCBI, BLAST software was used for the sequence alignment. MEGA4 software was used to draw phylogenetic tree for various species. Phytochemical analysis revealed that the highest and lowest amounts of both essential oil and menthol belonged to Mentha spicata and Micromeria hyssopifolia, respectively. The species Mentha spicata and Mentha piperita, which were assigned to one cluster in the dendrogram, contained the highest amounts of essential oil and menthol while Micromeria species, which was in the distinct cluster and placed in the farther evolutionary distance, contained the lowest amount of essential oil and menthol. Phylogenetic and phytochemistry analyses showed that essential oil and menthol contents of menthol-producing species are associated with menthol dehydrogenase gene sequence. PMID:26252633

  16. Molecular phylogenetic analysis of Indonesia Solanaceae based on DNA sequences of internal transcribed spacer region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hidayat, Topik; Priyandoko, Didik; Islami, Dina Karina; Wardiny, Putri Yunitha

    2016-02-01

    Solanaceae is one of largest family in Angiosperm group with highly diverse in morphological character. In Indonesia, this group of plant is very popular due to its usefulness as food, ornamental and medicinal plants. However, investigation on phylogenetic relationship among the member of this family in Indonesia remains less attention. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the phylogenetics relationship of the family especially distributed in Indonesia. DNA sequences of Internal Transcribed Spacer (ITS) region of 19 species of Solanaceae and three species of outgroup, which belongs to family Convolvulaceae, Apocynaceae, and Plantaginaceae, were isolated, amplified, and sequenced. Phylogenetic tree analysis based on parsimony method was conducted with using data derived from the ITS-1, 5.8S, and ITS-2, separately, and the combination of all. Results indicated that the phylogenetic tree derived from the combined data established better pattern of relationship than separate data. Thus, three major groups were revealed. Group 1 consists of tribe Datureae, Cestreae, and Petunieae, whereas group 2 is member of tribe Physaleae. Group 3 belongs to tribe Solaneae. The use of the ITS region as a molecular markers, in general, support the global Solanaceae relationship that has been previously reported.

  17. Phylogenetic Analysis of Selected Menthol-Producing Species Belonging to the Lamiaceae Family.

    PubMed

    Mirzaei, Motahareh; Mirzaei, Hamed; Sahebkar, Amirhossein; Bagherian, Ali; Masoud Khoi, Mohammad Jaber; Reza Mirzaei, Hamid; Salehi, Rasoul; Reza Jaafari, Mahmoud; Kazemi Oskuee, Reza

    2015-01-01

    Menthol is an organic compound with diverse medicinal and commercial applications, and is made either synthetically or through extraction from mint oils. The aim of the present study was to investigate menthol levels in selected menthol-producing species belonging to the Lamiaceae family, and to determine phylogenetic relationships of menthol dehydrogenase gene sequence among these species. Three genus of Lamiaceae, namely Mentha, Salvia, and Micromeria, were selected for phytochemical and phylogenetic analyses. After identification of each species based on menthol dehydrogenase gene in NCBI, BLAST software was used for the sequence alignment. MEGA4 software was used to draw phylogenetic tree for various species. Phytochemical analysis revealed that the highest and lowest amounts of both essential oil and menthol belonged to Mentha spicata and Micromeria hyssopifolia, respectively. The species Mentha spicata and Mentha piperita, which were assigned to one cluster in the dendrogram, contained the highest amounts of essential oil and menthol while Micromeria species, which was in the distinct cluster and placed in the farther evolutionary distance, contained the lowest amount of essential oil and menthol. Phylogenetic and phytochemistry analyses showed that essential oil and menthol contents of menthol-producing species are associated with menthol dehydrogenase gene sequence.

  18. Phylogenetic analysis of anaerobic psychrophilic enrichment cultures obtained from a greenland glacier ice core

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sheridan, Peter P.; Miteva, Vanya I.; Brenchley, Jean E.

    2003-01-01

    The examination of microorganisms in glacial ice cores allows the phylogenetic relationships of organisms frozen for thousands of years to be compared with those of current isolates. We developed a method for aseptically sampling a sediment-containing portion of a Greenland ice core that had remained at -9 degrees C for over 100,000 years. Epifluorescence microscopy and flow cytometry results showed that the ice sample contained over 6 x 10(7) cells/ml. Anaerobic enrichment cultures inoculated with melted ice were grown and maintained at -2 degrees C. Genomic DNA extracted from these enrichments was used for the PCR amplification of 16S rRNA genes with bacterial and archaeal primers and the preparation of clone libraries. Approximately 60 bacterial inserts were screened by restriction endonuclease analysis and grouped into 27 unique restriction fragment length polymorphism types, and 24 representative sequences were compared phylogenetically. Diverse sequences representing major phylogenetic groups including alpha, beta, and gamma Proteobacteria as well as relatives of the Thermus, Bacteroides, Eubacterium, and Clostridium groups were found. Sixteen clone sequences were closely related to those from known organisms, with four possibly representing new species. Seven sequences may reflect new genera and were most closely related to sequences obtained only by PCR amplification. One sequence was over 12% distant from its closest relative and may represent a novel order or family. These results show that phylogenetically diverse microorganisms have remained viable within the Greenland ice core for at least 100,000 years.

  19. Cladistic analysis of continuous modularized traits provides phylogenetic signals in Homo evolution.

    PubMed

    González-José, Rolando; Escapa, Ignacio; Neves, Walter A; Cúneo, Rubén; Pucciarelli, Héctor M

    2008-06-01

    Evolutionary novelties in the skeleton are usually expressed as changes in the timing of growth of features intrinsically integrated at different hierarchical levels of development. As a consequence, most of the shape-traits observed across species do vary quantitatively rather than qualitatively, in a multivariate space and in a modularized way. Because most phylogenetic analyses normally use discrete, hypothetically independent characters, previous attempts have disregarded the phylogenetic signals potentially enclosed in the shape of morphological structures. When analysing low taxonomic levels, where most variation is quantitative in nature, solving basic requirements like the choice of characters and the capacity of using continuous, integrated traits is of crucial importance in recovering wider phylogenetic information. This is particularly relevant when analysing extinct lineages, where available data are limited to fossilized structures. Here we show that when continuous, multivariant and modularized characters are treated as such, cladistic analysis successfully solves relationships among main Homo taxa. Our attempt is based on a combination of cladistics, evolutionary-development-derived selection of characters, and geometric morphometrics methods. In contrast with previous cladistic analyses of hominid phylogeny, our method accounts for the quantitative nature of the traits, and respects their morphological integration patterns. Because complex phenotypes are observable across different taxonomic groups and are potentially informative about phylogenetic relationships, future analyses should point strongly to the incorporation of these types of trait.

  20. Sequence and phylogenetic analysis of SSU rRNA gene of five microsporidia.

    PubMed

    Dong, ShiNan; Shen, ZhongYuan; Xu, Li; Zhu, Feng

    2010-01-01

    The complete small subunit rRNA (SSU rRNA) gene sequences of five microsporidia including Nosema heliothidis, and four novel microsporidia isolated from Pieris rapae, Phyllobrotica armta, Hemerophila atrilineata, and Bombyx mori, respectively, were obtained by PCR amplification, cloning, and sequencing. Two phylogenetic trees based on SSU rRNA sequences had been constructed by using Neighbor-Joining of Phylip software and UPGMA of MEGA4.0 software. The taxonomic status of four novel microsporidia was determined by analysis of phylogenetic relationship, length, G+C content, identity, and divergence of the SSU rRNA sequences. The results showed that the microsporidia isolated from Pieris rapae, Phyllobrotica armta, and Hemerophila atrilineata have close phylogenetic relationship with the Nosema, while another microsporidium isolated from Bombyx mori is closely related to the Endoreticulatus. So, we temporarily classify three novel species of microsporidia to genus Nosema, as Nosema sp. PR, Nosema sp. PA, Nosema sp. HA. Another is temporarily classified into genus Endoreticulatus, as Endoreticulatus sp. Zhenjiang. The result indicated as well that it is feasible and valuable to elucidate phylogenetic relationships and taxonomic status of microsporidian species by analyzing information from SSU rRNA sequences of microsporidia. PMID:19768503

  1. Bayesian Methods in Cosmology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hobson, Michael P.; Jaffe, Andrew H.; Liddle, Andrew R.; Mukherjee, Pia; Parkinson, David

    2014-02-01

    Preface; Part I. Methods: 1. Foundations and algorithms John Skilling; 2. Simple applications of Bayesian methods D. S. Sivia and Steve Rawlings; 3. Parameter estimation using Monte Carlo sampling Antony Lewis and Sarah Bridle; 4. Model selection and multi-model interference Andrew R. Liddle, Pia Mukherjee and David Parkinson; 5. Bayesian experimental design and model selection forecasting Roberto Trotta, Martin Kunz, Pia Mukherjee and David Parkinson; 6. Signal separation in cosmology M. P. Hobson, M. A. J. Ashdown and V. Stolyarov; Part II. Applications: 7. Bayesian source extraction M. P. Hobson, Graça Rocha and R. Savage; 8. Flux measurement Daniel Mortlock; 9. Gravitational wave astronomy Neil Cornish; 10. Bayesian analysis of cosmic microwave background data Andrew H. Jaffe; 11. Bayesian multilevel modelling of cosmological populations Thomas J. Loredo and Martin A. Hendry; 12. A Bayesian approach to galaxy evolution studies Stefano Andreon; 13. Photometric redshift estimation: methods and applications Ofer Lahav, Filipe B. Abdalla and Manda Banerji; Index.

  2. Bayesian Methods in Cosmology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hobson, Michael P.; Jaffe, Andrew H.; Liddle, Andrew R.; Mukherjee, Pia; Parkinson, David

    2009-12-01

    Preface; Part I. Methods: 1. Foundations and algorithms John Skilling; 2. Simple applications of Bayesian methods D. S. Sivia and Steve Rawlings; 3. Parameter estimation using Monte Carlo sampling Antony Lewis and Sarah Bridle; 4. Model selection and multi-model interference Andrew R. Liddle, Pia Mukherjee and David Parkinson; 5. Bayesian experimental design and model selection forecasting Roberto Trotta, Martin Kunz, Pia Mukherjee and David Parkinson; 6. Signal separation in cosmology M. P. Hobson, M. A. J. Ashdown and V. Stolyarov; Part II. Applications: 7. Bayesian source extraction M. P. Hobson, Graça Rocha and R. Savage; 8. Flux measurement Daniel Mortlock; 9. Gravitational wave astronomy Neil Cornish; 10. Bayesian analysis of cosmic microwave background data Andrew H. Jaffe; 11. Bayesian multilevel modelling of cosmological populations Thomas J. Loredo and Martin A. Hendry; 12. A Bayesian approach to galaxy evolution studies Stefano Andreon; 13. Photometric redshift estimation: methods and applications Ofer Lahav, Filipe B. Abdalla and Manda Banerji; Index.

  3. Crash risk analysis for Shanghai urban expressways: A Bayesian semi-parametric modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Yu, Rongjie; Wang, Xuesong; Yang, Kui; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

    2016-10-01

    Urban expressway systems have been developed rapidly in recent years in China; it has become one key part of the city roadway networks as carrying large traffic volume and providing high traveling speed. Along with the increase of traffic volume, traffic safety has become a major issue for Chinese urban expressways due to the frequent crash occurrence and the non-recurrent congestions caused by them. For the purpose of unveiling crash occurrence mechanisms and further developing Active Traffic Management (ATM) control strategies to improve traffic safety, this study developed disaggregate crash risk analysis models with loop detector traffic data and historical crash data. Bayesian random effects logistic regression models were utilized as it can account for the unobserved heterogeneity among crashes. However, previous crash risk analysis studies formulated random effects distributions in a parametric approach, which assigned them to follow normal distributions. Due to the limited information known about random effects distributions, subjective parametric setting may be incorrect. In order to construct more flexible and robust random effects to capture the unobserved heterogeneity, Bayesian semi-parametric inference technique was introduced to crash risk analysis in this study. Models with both inference techniques were developed for total crashes; semi-parametric models were proved to provide substantial better model goodness-of-fit, while the two models shared consistent coefficient estimations. Later on, Bayesian semi-parametric random effects logistic regression models were developed for weekday peak hour crashes, weekday non-peak hour crashes, and weekend non-peak hour crashes to investigate different crash occurrence scenarios. Significant factors that affect crash risk have been revealed and crash mechanisms have been concluded.

  4. Crash risk analysis for Shanghai urban expressways: A Bayesian semi-parametric modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Yu, Rongjie; Wang, Xuesong; Yang, Kui; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

    2016-10-01

    Urban expressway systems have been developed rapidly in recent years in China; it has become one key part of the city roadway networks as carrying large traffic volume and providing high traveling speed. Along with the increase of traffic volume, traffic safety has become a major issue for Chinese urban expressways due to the frequent crash occurrence and the non-recurrent congestions caused by them. For the purpose of unveiling crash occurrence mechanisms and further developing Active Traffic Management (ATM) control strategies to improve traffic safety, this study developed disaggregate crash risk analysis models with loop detector traffic data and historical crash data. Bayesian random effects logistic regression models were utilized as it can account for the unobserved heterogeneity among crashes. However, previous crash risk analysis studies formulated random effects distributions in a parametric approach, which assigned them to follow normal distributions. Due to the limited information known about random effects distributions, subjective parametric setting may be incorrect. In order to construct more flexible and robust random effects to capture the unobserved heterogeneity, Bayesian semi-parametric inference technique was introduced to crash risk analysis in this study. Models with both inference techniques were developed for total crashes; semi-parametric models were proved to provide substantial better model goodness-of-fit, while the two models shared consistent coefficient estimations. Later on, Bayesian semi-parametric random effects logistic regression models were developed for weekday peak hour crashes, weekday non-peak hour crashes, and weekend non-peak hour crashes to investigate different crash occurrence scenarios. Significant factors that affect crash risk have been revealed and crash mechanisms have been concluded. PMID:26847949

  5. Framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis to investigate the perturbed metabolic network

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Genome-scale metabolic network models have contributed to elucidating biological phenomena, and predicting gene targets to engineer for biotechnological applications. With their increasing importance, their precise network characterization has also been crucial for better understanding of the cellular physiology. Results We herein introduce a framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis (FMB) to investigate organism’s metabolism under perturbation. FMB reveals direction of influences among metabolic modules, in which reactions with similar or positively correlated flux variation patterns are clustered, in response to specific perturbation using metabolic flux data. With metabolic flux data calculated by constraints-based flux analysis under both control and perturbation conditions, FMB, in essence, reveals the effects of specific perturbations on the biological system through network modularization and Bayesian network analysis at metabolic modular level. As a demonstration, this framework was applied to the genetically perturbed Escherichia coli metabolism, which is a lpdA gene knockout mutant, using its genome-scale metabolic network model. Conclusions After all, it provides alternative scenarios of metabolic flux distributions in response to the perturbation, which are complementary to the data obtained from conventionally available genome-wide high-throughput techniques or metabolic flux analysis. PMID:22784571

  6. Genome-wide phylogenetic analysis of differences in thermotolerance among closely related Acetobacter pasteurianus strains.

    PubMed

    Matsutani, Minenosuke; Hirakawa, Hideki; Saichana, Natsaran; Soemphol, Wichai; Yakushi, Toshiharu; Matsushita, Kazunobu

    2012-01-01

    Acetobacter pasteurianus is a Gram-negative strictly aerobic bacterium that is widely used for the industrial production of vinegar. Three Acetobacter pasteurianus strains, SKU1108, NBRC 3283 and IFO 3191, have the same 16S rRNA sequence (100 % sequence identity) but show differences in thermotolerance. To clarify the relationships between phylogeny and thermotolerance of these strains, genome-wide analysis of these three strains was performed. Concatenated phylogenetic analysis of a dataset of 1864 orthologues has shown that the more thermotolerant strains, SKU1108 and NBRC 3283, are more closely related to each other than to the more thermosensitive strain, IFO 3191. In addition, we defined a dataset of 2010 unique orthologues among these three strains, and compared the frequency of amino acid mutations among them. Genes involved in translation, transcription and signal transduction are highly conserved among each unique orthologous dataset. The results also showed that there are several genes with increased mutation rates in IFO 3191 compared with the thermotolerant strains, SKU1108 and NBRC 3283. Analysis of the mutational directions of these genes suggested that some of them might be correlated with the thermosensitivity of IFO 3191. Concatenated phylogenetic analysis of these closely related strains revealed that there is a phylogenetic relationship associated with this phenotype among the thermotolerant and thermosensitive strains.

  7. Bayesian design and analysis of computer experiments: Use of derivatives in surface prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Morris, M.D.; Mitchell, T.J. ); Ylvisaker, D. . Dept. of Mathematics)

    1991-06-01

    The work of Currin et al. and others in developing fast predictive approximations'' of computer models is extended for the case in which derivatives of the output variable of interest with respect to input variables are available. In addition to describing the calculations required for the Bayesian analysis, the issue of experimental design is also discussed, and an algorithm is described for constructing maximin distance'' designs. An example is given based on a demonstration model of eight inputs and one output, in which predictions based on a maximin design, a Latin hypercube design, and two compromise'' designs are evaluated and compared. 12 refs., 2 figs., 6 tabs.

  8. Bayesian analysis of heat pipe life test data for reliability demonstration testing

    SciTech Connect

    Bartholomew, R.J.; Martz, H.F.

    1985-01-01

    The demonstration testing duration requirements to establish a quantitative measure of assurance of expected lifetime for heat pipes was determined. The heat pipes are candidate devices for transporting heat generated in a nuclear reactor core to thermoelectric converters for use as a space-based electric power plant. A Bayesian analysis technique is employed, utilizing a limited Delphi survey, and a geometric mean accelerated test criterion involving heat pipe power (P) and temperature (T). Resulting calculations indicate considerable test savings can be achieved by employing the method, but development testing to determine heat pipe failure mechanisms should not be circumvented.

  9. Complete mitochondrial genome of the Pseudogastromyzon jiulongjiangensis Chen (Cypriniformes, Homalopteridae) and phylogenetic analysis of the Cyprinoidei.

    PubMed

    Lv, Yaoping; Zhang, Kaibo; Liu, Ziming; Hu, Zehui; Wang, Kaiwei; Zhou, Haidong

    2016-07-01

    The Pseudogastromyzon jiulongjiangensis Chen (Cypriniformes, Homalopteridae) is a promising ornamental and commercial candidate in China. In this study, the complete mitochondrial genome of P. jiulongjiangensis was first determined. It is 16,571 bp length and consists of 22 tRNA genes, 13 protein-coding genes, two rRNA genes, and a control region. Except for eight tRNA and ND6 genes, all other mitochondrial genes are encoded on the heavy strand. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that P. jiulongjiangensis, Formosania lacustris, and other seven fish first clustered into the Homalopteridae clade. Then, the Homalopteridae and Cobitidae formed the sister group. The Catostomoidae and Cyprinidae constituted the sister branch, which is inconsistent with the previous phenotypic report. It is suggested that the taxonomic research might lose some significant evolutionary characters. This study will contribute to phylogenetic analysis of the Homalopteridae and the natural resources conservation of P. jiulongjiangensis. PMID:27158787

  10. K-mer natural vector and its application to the phylogenetic analysis of genetic sequences

    PubMed Central

    Wen, Jia; Chan, Raymond H.; Yau, Shek-Chung; He, Rong L.; Yau, Stephen S. T.

    2014-01-01

    Based on the well-known k-mer model, we propose a k-mer natural vector model for representing a genetic sequence based on the numbers and distributions of k-mers in the sequence. We show that there exists a one-to-one correspondence between a genetic sequence and its associated k-mer natural vector. The k-mer natural vector method can be easily and quickly used to perform phylogenetic analysis of genetic sequences without requiring evolutionary models or human intervention. Whole or partial genomes can be handled more effective with our proposed method. It is applied to the phylogenetic analysis of genetic sequences, and the obtaining results fully demonstrate that the k-mer natural vector method is a very powerful tool for analysing and annotating genetic sequences and determining evolutionary relationships both in terms of accuracy and efficiency. PMID:24858075

  11. Phylogenetic analysis of hepatitis D viruses indicating a new genotype I subgroup among African isolates.

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Y Y; Tsega, E; Hansson, B G

    1996-01-01

    Genetic analysis was performed on 13 hepatitis D virus (HDV) isolates from Ethiopia, Somalia, Jordan, Kuwait, Bulgaria, Moldavia, and Sweden. The complete nucleotide sequence and genomic organization are described for the first time for two African HDV isolates. Phylogenetic analysis showed all the African isolates to be intrarelated and to form a novel group within HDV genotype I; the suggested designation for this group is IC. The genetic distance to previously described type I isolates was about 0.15. The HDV genotype I isolates (total of 22 examined) phylogenetically formed three clusters, each of them corresponding to certain geographic regions; the "western" group consisted of six HDV isolates from western Europe and the United States plus one from Kuwait; the "eastern" group consisted of two isolates from Moldavia and one each from Bulgaria, Nauru, mainland China, and Taiwan; and the "African-Middle East" group consisted of six HDV isolates from Ethiopia and one from Somalia, Jordan, and Lebanon. PMID:8940442

  12. Phylogenetic concordance analysis shows an emerging pathogen is novel and endemic.

    PubMed

    Storfer, Andrew; Alfaro, Michael E; Ridenhour, Benjamin J; Jancovich, James K; Mech, Stephen G; Parris, Matthew J; Collins, James P

    2007-11-01

    Distinguishing whether pathogens are novel or endemic is critical for controlling emerging infectious diseases, an increasing threat to wildlife and human health. To test the endemic vs. novel pathogen hypothesis, we present a unique analysis of intraspecific host-pathogen phylogenetic concordance of tiger salamanders and an emerging Ranavirus throughout Western North America. There is significant non-concordance of host and virus gene trees, suggesting pathogen novelty. However, non-concordance has likely resulted from virus introductions by human movement of infected salamanders. When human-associated viral introductions are excluded, host and virus gene trees are identical, strongly supporting coevolution and endemism. A laboratory experiment showed an introduced virus strain is significantly more virulent than endemic strains, likely due to artificial selection for high virulence. Thus, our analysis of intraspecific phylogenetic concordance revealed that human introduction of viruses is the mechanism underlying tree non-concordance and possibly disease emergence via artificial selection.

  13. Integrated Data Analysis for Fusion: A Bayesian Tutorial for Fusion Diagnosticians

    SciTech Connect

    Dinklage, Andreas; Dreier, Heiko; Preuss, Roland; Fischer, Rainer; Gori, Silvio; Toussaint, Udo von

    2008-03-12

    Integrated Data Analysis (IDA) offers a unified way of combining information relevant to fusion experiments. Thereby, IDA meets with typical issues arising in fusion data analysis. In IDA, all information is consistently formulated as probability density functions quantifying uncertainties in the analysis within the Bayesian probability theory. For a single diagnostic, IDA allows the identification of faulty measurements and improvements in the setup. For a set of diagnostics, IDA gives joint error distributions allowing the comparison and integration of different diagnostics results. Validation of physics models can be performed by model comparison techniques. Typical data analysis applications benefit from IDA capabilities of nonlinear error propagation, the inclusion of systematic effects and the comparison of different physics models. Applications range from outlier detection, background discrimination, model assessment and design of diagnostics. In order to cope with next step fusion device requirements, appropriate techniques are explored for fast analysis applications.

  14. Molecular phylogenetic analysis of Acridoidea (Orthoptera: Caelifera) based on mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit sequences.

    PubMed

    Dong, Lijun; Shi, Jianping; Zhang, Xiaohong; Zhang, Yulong; Li, Xinjiang; Yin, Hong

    2015-01-01

    Phylogenetic relationships of Acridoidea were examined using mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit sequences (COI, COII and COIII, total 2970bp). Fourteen grasshopper species of thirteen genera from seven families were sequenced to obtain mitochondrial genes data, along with twenty-two grasshopper species were obtained from the GenBank nucleotide database. The purpose of this study is to infer the phylogenetic relationships among families within Acridoidea and testing the monophyly of Acridoidea and each families of it. Phylogenic trees were reconstructed using Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Maximum Parsimony (MP) methods with Tettigonioidea and Gryllotalpoidea as outgroups. The putative initiation codon for COI is CCG in thirteen studied species and ATC in Bryodema luctuosum luctuosum. The 2970 bp concatenated sequences included 1431 conserved sites, 1539 variable sites, and 1216 parsimony-informative sites, the nucleotide compositions were significantly biased toward A and T (68.8%). The resulted phylogenetic trees supported the monophyly of Acridoidea, but did not entirely agree with the traditional morphology-based taxonomic system of grasshoppers within Acridoidea. The monophyly of three families of Acrididae, Catantopidae and Arcypteridae were not supported; Gomphoceridae and Arcypteridae were recovered together as a monophyletic group because of closer phylogenetic relationships; Pyrgomorphidae and Chrotogonidae have the same closer relationships; Pneumoridae, Pyrgomorphidae and Chrotogonidae were the most basal groups; while the taxonomic status of Pamphagidae, which was revealed as a monophyletic group, was not clear in this analysis. Moreover, the results indicate that a phylogeny inferred from the combination of several genes is more reliable than that from only a single gene sequence, and the third codon positions of protein coding genes can improve the topology and node supports of the phylogenetic trees. PMID:26624048

  15. Biological pattern and transcriptomic exploration and phylogenetic analysis in the odd floral architecture tree: Helwingia willd

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Odd traits in few of plant species usually implicate potential biology significances in plant evolutions. The genus Helwingia Willd, a dioecious medical shrub in Aquifoliales order, has an odd floral architecture-epiphyllous inflorescence. The potential significances and possible evolutionary origin of this specie are not well understood due to poorly available data of biological and genetic studies. In addition, the advent of genomics-based technologies has widely revolutionized plant species with unknown genomic information. Results Morphological and biological pattern were detailed via anatomical and pollination analyses. An RNA sequencing based transcriptomic analysis were undertaken and a high-resolution phylogenetic analysis was conducted based on single-copy genes in more than 80 species of seed plants, including H. japonica. It is verified that a potential fusion of rachis to the leaf midvein facilitates insect pollination. RNA sequencing yielded a total of 111450 unigenes; half of them had significant similarity with proteins in the public database, and 20281 unigenes were mapped to 119 pathways. Deduced from the phylogenetic analysis based on single-copy genes, the group of Helwingia is closer with Euasterids II and rather than Euasterids, congruent with previous reports using plastid sequences. Conclusions The odd flower architecture make H. Willd adapt to insect pollination by hosting those insects larger than the flower in size via leave, which has little common character that other insect pollination plants hold. Further the present transcriptome greatly riches genomics information of Helwingia species and nucleus genes based phylogenetic analysis also greatly improve the resolution and robustness of phylogenetic reconstruction in H. japonica. PMID:24969969

  16. A Phylogenetic Analysis of Greek Isolates of Aspergillus Species Based on Morphology and Nuclear and Mitochondrial Gene Sequences

    PubMed Central

    Krimitzas, Antonios; Kouvelis, Vassili N.; Kapsanaki-Gotsi, Evangelia; Typas, Milton A.

    2013-01-01

    Aspergillus species originating from Greece were examined by morphological and molecular criteria to explore the diversity of this genus. The phylogenetic relationships of these species were determined using sequences from the ITS and IGS region of the nuclear rRNA gene complex, two nuclear genes (β-tubulin (benA) and RNA polymerase II second largest subunit (rpb2)) and two mitochondrial genes (small rRNA subunit (rns) and cytochrome oxidase subunit I (cox1)) and, where available, related sequences from databases. The morphological characters of the anamorphs and teleomorphs, and the single gene phylogenetic trees, differentiated and placed the species examined in the well-supported sections of Aenei, Aspergillus, Bispori, Candidi, Circumdati, Clavati, Cremei, Flavi, Flavipedes, Fumigati, Nidulantes, Nigri, Restricti, Terrei, Usti, and Zonati, with few uncertainties. The combined use of the three commonly employed nuclear genes (benA, rpb2, and ITS), the IGS region, and two less often used mitochondrial gene sequences (rns and cox1) as a single unit resolved several taxonomic ambiguities. A phylogenetic tree was inferred using Neighbour-Joining, Maximum Parsimony, and Bayesian methods. The strains examined formed seven well-supported clades within the genus Aspergillus. Altogether, the concatenated nuclear and mitochondrial sequences offer additional tools for an improved understanding of phylogenetic relationships within this genus. PMID:23762830

  17. Fuzzy Bayesian Network-Bow-Tie Analysis of Gas Leakage during Biomass Gasification

    PubMed Central

    Yan, Fang; Xu, Kaili; Yao, Xiwen; Li, Yang

    2016-01-01

    Biomass gasification technology has been rapidly developed recently. But fire and poisoning accidents caused by gas leakage restrict the development and promotion of biomass gasification. Therefore, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is necessary for biomass gasification system. Subsequently, Bayesian network-bow-tie (BN-bow-tie) analysis was proposed by mapping bow-tie analysis into Bayesian network (BN). Causes of gas leakage and the accidents triggered by gas leakage can be obtained by bow-tie analysis, and BN was used to confirm the critical nodes of accidents by introducing corresponding three importance measures. Meanwhile, certain occurrence probability of failure was needed in PSA. In view of the insufficient failure data of biomass gasification, the occurrence probability of failure which cannot be obtained from standard reliability data sources was confirmed by fuzzy methods based on expert judgment. An improved approach considered expert weighting to aggregate fuzzy numbers included triangular and trapezoidal numbers was proposed, and the occurrence probability of failure was obtained. Finally, safety measures were indicated based on the obtained critical nodes. The theoretical occurrence probabilities in one year of gas leakage and the accidents caused by it were reduced to 1/10.3 of the original values by these safety measures. PMID:27463975

  18. Fuzzy Bayesian Network-Bow-Tie Analysis of Gas Leakage during Biomass Gasification.

    PubMed

    Yan, Fang; Xu, Kaili; Yao, Xiwen; Li, Yang

    2016-01-01

    Biomass gasification technology has been rapidly developed recently. But fire and poisoning accidents caused by gas leakage restrict the development and promotion of biomass gasification. Therefore, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is necessary for biomass gasification system. Subsequently, Bayesian network-bow-tie (BN-bow-tie) analysis was proposed by mapping bow-tie analysis into Bayesian network (BN). Causes of gas leakage and the accidents triggered by gas leakage can be obtained by bow-tie analysis, and BN was used to confirm the critical nodes of accidents by introducing corresponding three importance measures. Meanwhile, certain occurrence probability of failure was needed in PSA. In view of the insufficient failure data of biomass gasification, the occurrence probability of failure which cannot be obtained from standard reliability data sources was confirmed by fuzzy methods based on expert judgment. An improved approach considered expert weighting to aggregate fuzzy numbers included triangular and trapezoidal numbers was proposed, and the occurrence probability of failure was obtained. Finally, safety measures were indicated based on the obtained critical nodes. The theoretical occurrence probabilities in one year of gas leakage and the accidents caused by it were reduced to 1/10.3 of the original values by these safety measures.

  19. Fuzzy Bayesian Network-Bow-Tie Analysis of Gas Leakage during Biomass Gasification.

    PubMed

    Yan, Fang; Xu, Kaili; Yao, Xiwen; Li, Yang

    2016-01-01

    Biomass gasification technology has been rapidly developed recently. But fire and poisoning accidents caused by gas leakage restrict the development and promotion of biomass gasification. Therefore, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is necessary for biomass gasification system. Subsequently, Bayesian network-bow-tie (BN-bow-tie) analysis was proposed by mapping bow-tie analysis into Bayesian network (BN). Causes of gas leakage and the accidents triggered by gas leakage can be obtained by bow-tie analysis, and BN was used to confirm the critical nodes of accidents by introducing corresponding three importance measures. Meanwhile, certain occurrence probability of failure was needed in PSA. In view of the insufficient failure data of biomass gasification, the occurrence probability of failure which cannot be obtained from standard reliability data sources was confirmed by fuzzy methods based on expert judgment. An improved approach considered expert weighting to aggregate fuzzy numbers included triangular and trapezoidal numbers was proposed, and the occurrence probability of failure was obtained. Finally, safety measures were indicated based on the obtained critical nodes. The theoretical occurrence probabilities in one year of gas leakage and the accidents caused by it were reduced to 1/10.3 of the original values by these safety measures. PMID:27463975

  20. Assessing compositional variability through graphical analysis and Bayesian statistical approaches: case studies on transgenic crops.

    PubMed

    Harrigan, George G; Harrison, Jay M

    2012-01-01

    New transgenic (GM) crops are subjected to extensive safety assessments that include compositional comparisons with conventional counterparts as a cornerstone of the process. The influence of germplasm, location, environment, and agronomic treatments on compositional variability is, however, often obscured in these pair-wise comparisons. Furthermore, classical statistical significance testing can often provide an incomplete and over-simplified summary of highly responsive variables such as crop composition. In order to more clearly describe the influence of the numerous sources of compositional variation we present an introduction to two alternative but complementary approaches to data analysis and interpretation. These include i) exploratory data analysis (EDA) with its emphasis on visualization and graphics-based approaches and ii) Bayesian statistical methodology that provides easily interpretable and meaningful evaluations of data in terms of probability distributions. The EDA case-studies include analyses of herbicide-tolerant GM soybean and insect-protected GM maize and soybean. Bayesian approaches are presented in an analysis of herbicide-tolerant GM soybean. Advantages of these approaches over classical frequentist significance testing include the more direct interpretation of results in terms of probabilities pertaining to quantities of interest and no confusion over the application of corrections for multiple comparisons. It is concluded that a standardized framework for these methodologies could provide specific advantages through enhanced clarity of presentation and interpretation in comparative assessments of crop composition.

  1. Bayesian robustness in meta-analysis for studies with zero responses.

    PubMed

    Vázquez, F J; Moreno, E; Negrín, M A; Martel, M

    2016-05-01

    Statistical meta-analysis is mostly carried out with the help of the random effect normal model, including the case of discrete random variables. We argue that the normal approximation is not always able to adequately capture the underlying uncertainty of the original discrete data. Furthermore, when we examine the influence of the prior distributions considered, in the presence of rare events, the results from this approximation can be very poor. In order to assess the robustness of the quantities of interest in meta-analysis with respect to the choice of priors, this paper proposes an alternative Bayesian model for binomial random variables with several zero responses. Particular attention is paid to the coherence between the prior distributions of the study model parameters and the meta-parameter. Thus, our method introduces a simple way to examine the sensitivity of these quantities to the structure dependence selected for study. For illustrative purposes, an example with real data is analysed, using the proposed Bayesian meta-analysis model for binomial sparse data. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26913715

  2. Structural and phylogenetic analysis of the rDNA intergenic spacer region of Verticillium dahliae.

    PubMed

    Papaioannou, Ioannis A; Dimopoulou, Chrysoula D; Typas, Milton A

    2013-10-01

    The nuclear ribosomal intergenic spacer (IGS) region was structurally analyzed and exploited for molecular discrimination and phylogenetic analysis of vegetative compatibility groups (VCGs) of Verticillium dahliae. A structural study of 201 available IGS sequences of the fungus was performed, and four classes of ubiquitous repetitive elements, organized in higher-order repetitive structures or composite blocks, were detected in a variable IGS subregion. This subregion was amplified from an international collection of 59 V. dahliae isolates covering all VCGs, together with nine representative V. albo-atrum and V. longisporum isolates, and sequenced. Structural and phylogenetic analyses of the sequences of this polymorphic IGS subregion were consistently informative and allowed the identification of two main lineages in V. dahliae, that is, clade I including VCGs 1A, 1B, 2A, 4B, and 3 and clade II containing VCGs 2B, 4A, and 6. Analysis of IGS sequences proved a highly suitable molecular tool for (a) rapid interspecific differentiation, (b) intraspecific discrimination among VCGs of V. dahliae, facilitating high-throughput VCG confirmation and prediction/profiling, and (c) phylogenetic analysis within and among V. dahliae VCGs.

  3. A revision and phylogenetic analysis of the spider genus Oxysoma Nicolet (Araneae: Anyphaenidae, Amaurobioidinae).

    PubMed

    Aisen, Santiago; Ramírez, Martín J

    2015-08-06

    We review the spider genus Oxysoma Nicolet, with most of its species endemic from the southern temperate forests in Chile and Argentina, and present a phylogenetic analysis including seven species, of which three are newly described in this study (O. macrocuspis new species, O. kuni new species, and O. losruiles new species, all from Chile), together with other 107 representatives of Anyphaenidae. New geographical records and distribution maps are provided for all species, with illustrations and reviewed diagnoses for the genus and the four previously known species (O. punctatum Nicolet, O. saccatum (Tullgren), O. longiventre (Nicolet) and O. itambezinho Ramírez). The phylogenetic analysis using cladistic methods is based on 264 previously defined characters plus one character that arises from this study. The three new species are closely related with Oxysoma longiventre, and this four species compose what we define as the Oxysoma longiventre species group. The phylogenetic analysis did not retrieve the monophyly of Oxysoma, which should be reevaluated in the future, together with the genus Tasata.

  4. Genotyping and Phylogenetic Analysis of Giardia duodenalis Isolates from Turkish Children

    PubMed Central

    Tamer, Gulden Sonmez; Kasap, Murat; Er, Doganhan Kadir

    2015-01-01

    Background Giardiasis is caused by the intestinal protozoan parasite Giardia duodenalis (synonyms: G. lamblia, G. intestinalis), which is one of the most frequent parasites that infect Turkish children. However, molecular characterization of G. duodenalis in Turkey is relatively scarce. The present work aimed at genotyping G. duodenalis isolates from Turkey using molecular techniques. Material/Methods In the present study, 145 fecal samples from children were collected to search for the presence of Giardia by microscopy and PCR screening. PCR generated a 384 bp fragment for β-giardin. The PCR products were sequenced and the sequences were subjected to phylogenetic analysis by using PHYLIP. Results Based on the phylogenetic analysis of the sequences, assemblage A, B, and mixed subtypes were determined. Of 22 isolates, 11 were identified as assemblage A (50%), 7 were assemblage B (31.8%), and 4 were assemblage AB (18.2%). Association between G. duodenalis assemblages and the epidemiological data was analyzed. No correlation was found between symptoms and infection with specific assemblages (P>0.05), but we found statistically significant association between age and the assemblage AB (P=0.001). Conclusions The association between G. duodenalis and the epidemiologic data were analyzed. Since assemblage A is the more prevalent subgroup compared with assemblage B, this subgroup might be responsible for common Giardia infections in Turkey. This is the first study that included a detailed phylogenetic analysis of Giardia strains from Turkey. PMID:25689970

  5. A Two-Step Bayesian Approach for Propensity Score Analysis: Simulations and Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

    2012-01-01

    A two-step Bayesian propensity score approach is introduced that incorporates prior information in the propensity score equation and outcome equation without the problems associated with simultaneous Bayesian propensity score approaches. The corresponding variance estimators are also provided. The two-step Bayesian propensity score is provided for…

  6. Overview of chitin metabolism enzymes in Manduca sexta: Identification, domain organization, phylogenetic analysis and gene expression.

    PubMed

    Tetreau, Guillaume; Cao, Xiaolong; Chen, Yun-Ru; Muthukrishnan, Subbaratnam; Jiang, Haobo; Blissard, Gary W; Kanost, Michael R; Wang, Ping

    2015-07-01

    Chitin is one of the most abundant biomaterials in nature. The biosynthesis and degradation of chitin in insects are complex and dynamically regulated to cope with insect growth and development. Chitin metabolism in insects is known to involve numerous enzymes, including chitin synthases (synthesis of chitin), chitin deacetylases (modification of chitin by deacetylation) and chitinases (degradation of chitin by hydrolysis). In this study, we conducted a genome-wide search and analysis of genes encoding these chitin metabolism enzymes in Manduca sexta. Our analysis confirmed that only two chitin synthases are present in M. sexta as in most other arthropods. Eleven chitin deacetylases (encoded by nine genes) were identified, with at least one representative in each of the five phylogenetic groups that have been described for chitin deacetylases to date. Eleven genes encoding for family 18 chitinases (GH18) were found in the M. sexta genome. Based on the presence of conserved sequence motifs in the catalytic sequences and phylogenetic relationships, two of the M. sexta chitinases did not cluster with any of the current eight phylogenetic groups of chitinases: two new groups were created (groups IX and X) and their characteristics are described. The result of the analysis of the Lepidoptera-specific chitinase-h (group h) is consistent with its proposed bacterial origin. By analyzing chitinases from fourteen species that belong to seven different phylogenetic groups, we reveal that the chitinase genes appear to have evolved sequentially in the arthropod lineage to achieve the current high level of diversity observed in M. sexta. Based on the sequence conservation of the catalytic domains and on their developmental stage- and tissue-specific expression, we propose putative functions for each group in each category of enzymes. PMID:25616108

  7. A Bayesian fingerprinting analysis for detection and attribution of changes in extreme flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Merz, Bruno; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

    2014-05-01

    Fingerprinting analysis has widely been used in the detection and attribution problem within the climate community over the past several decades. In the approach, a field of certain observed climate indicator is represented as a linear model of a signal pattern (fingerprint) that is simulated by a climate model under external forcing plus a noise field, which represents a realisation of the internal climate variability. A scaling factor is introduced to adjust the amplitude of the signal pattern so that it matches the observations well. In the approach, the scaling factor is optimally estimated to maximise the signal-to-noise ratio, thereby increasing detectability of the signal due to a forced climate change. Many of the fingerprinting analyses that are reported in the literature are framed on the classical statistical theory. Such an approach can give reliable results under the condition that the natural variability of the system and the uncertainties in the predicted signals under a given forcing can be quantified. If these uncertainties cannot be objectively estimated, interpretation of the results will mainly be guided by a subjective judgement. Recent analyses have made a shift towards a Bayesian approach, which provides a quantitative framework for the integration of subjective prior information on the uncertainties into the statistical detection and attribution problem. Hasselmann (1998) reviews the fingerprinting approach that is based on the classical statistical framework and presents generalisation of the approach to a Bayesian framework. Berliner et al. (2000) also presents a formal Bayesian fingerprinting analytical framework for the detection and attribution problem. The potential applicability of the fingerprinting approach to the detection and attribution problem of extreme flows has been discussed in the opinion paper by Merz et al. (2012). Hundecha and Merz (2012) have also implemented an approach that is similar to the fingerprinting approach

  8. Molecular phylogenetic analysis supports a Gondwanan origin of the Hyriidae (Mollusca: Bivalvia: Unionida) and the paraphyly of Australasian taxa.

    PubMed

    Graf, Daniel L; Jones, Hugh; Geneva, Anthony J; Pfeiffer, John M; Klunzinger, Michael W

    2015-04-01

    The freshwater mussel family Hyriidae (Mollusca: Bivalvia: Unionida) has a disjunct trans-Pacific distribution in Australasia and South America. Previous phylogenetic analyses have estimated the evolutionary relationships of the family and the major infra-familial taxa (Velesunioninae and Hyriinae: Hyridellini in Australia; Hyriinae: Hyriini, Castaliini, and Rhipidodontini in South America), but taxon and character sampling have been too incomplete to support a predictive classification or allow testing of biogeographical hypotheses. We sampled 30 freshwater mussel individuals representing the aforementioned hyriid taxa, as well as outgroup species representing the five other freshwater mussel families and their marine sister group (order Trigoniida). Our ingroup included representatives of all Australian genera. Phylogenetic relationships were estimated from three gene fragments (nuclear 28S, COI and 16S mtDNA) using maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference, and we applied a Bayesian relaxed clock model calibrated with fossil dates to estimate node ages. Our analyses found good support for monophyly of the Hyriidae and the subfamilies and tribes, as well as the paraphyly of the Australasian taxa (Velesunioninae, (Hyridellini, (Rhipidodontini, (Castaliini, Hyriini)))). The Hyriidae was recovered as sister to a clade comprised of all other Recent freshwater mussel families. Our molecular date estimation supported Cretaceous origins of the major hyriid clades, pre-dating the Tertiary isolation of South America from Antarctica/Australia. We hypothesize that early diversification of the Hyriidae was driven by terrestrial barriers on Gondwana rather than marine barriers following disintegration of the super-continent.

  9. Bayesian flux balance analysis applied to a skeletal muscle metabolic model.

    PubMed

    Heino, Jenni; Tunyan, Knarik; Calvetti, Daniela; Somersalo, Erkki

    2007-09-01

    In this article, the steady state condition for the multi-compartment models for cellular metabolism is considered. The problem is to estimate the reaction and transport fluxes, as well as the concentrations in venous blood when the stoichiometry and bound constraints for the fluxes and the concentrations are given. The problem has been addressed previously by a number of authors, and optimization-based approaches as well as extreme pathway analysis have been proposed. These approaches are briefly discussed here. The main emphasis of this work is a Bayesian statistical approach to the flux balance analysis (FBA). We show how the bound constraints and optimality conditions such as maximizing the oxidative phosphorylation flux can be incorporated into the model in the Bayesian framework by proper construction of the prior densities. We propose an effective Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to explore the posterior densities, and compare the results with those obtained via the previously studied linear programming (LP) approach. The proposed methodology, which is applied here to a two-compartment model for skeletal muscle metabolism, can be extended to more complex models. PMID:17568615

  10. Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

    PubMed

    Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

    2016-01-01

    To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents. PMID:26433361

  11. Bayesian data analysis of severe fatal accident risk in the oil chain.

    PubMed

    Eckle, Petrissa; Burgherr, Peter

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the risk of severe fatal accidents causing five or more fatalities and for nine different activities covering the entire oil chain. Included are exploration and extraction, transport by different modes, refining and final end use in power plants, heating or gas stations. The risks are quantified separately for OECD and non-OECD countries and trends are calculated. Risk is analyzed by employing a Bayesian hierarchical model yielding analytical functions for both frequency (Poisson) and severity distributions (Generalized Pareto) as well as frequency trends. This approach addresses a key problem in risk estimation-namely the scarcity of data resulting in high uncertainties in particular for the risk of extreme events, where the risk is extrapolated beyond the historically most severe accidents. Bayesian data analysis allows the pooling of information from different data sets covering, for example, the different stages of the energy chains or different modes of transportation. In addition, it also inherently delivers a measure of uncertainty. This approach provides a framework, which comprehensively covers risk throughout the oil chain, allowing the allocation of risk in sustainability assessments. It also permits the progressive addition of new data to refine the risk estimates. Frequency, severity, and trends show substantial differences between the activities, emphasizing the need for detailed risk analysis. PMID:22642363

  12. Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

    PubMed

    Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

    2016-01-01

    To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents.

  13. Bayesian data analysis of severe fatal accident risk in the oil chain.

    PubMed

    Eckle, Petrissa; Burgherr, Peter

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the risk of severe fatal accidents causing five or more fatalities and for nine different activities covering the entire oil chain. Included are exploration and extraction, transport by different modes, refining and final end use in power plants, heating or gas stations. The risks are quantified separately for OECD and non-OECD countries and trends are calculated. Risk is analyzed by employing a Bayesian hierarchical model yielding analytical functions for both frequency (Poisson) and severity distributions (Generalized Pareto) as well as frequency trends. This approach addresses a key problem in risk estimation-namely the scarcity of data resulting in high uncertainties in particular for the risk of extreme events, where the risk is extrapolated beyond the historically most severe accidents. Bayesian data analysis allows the pooling of information from different data sets covering, for example, the different stages of the energy chains or different modes of transportation. In addition, it also inherently delivers a measure of uncertainty. This approach provides a framework, which comprehensively covers risk throughout the oil chain, allowing the allocation of risk in sustainability assessments. It also permits the progressive addition of new data to refine the risk estimates. Frequency, severity, and trends show substantial differences between the activities, emphasizing the need for detailed risk analysis.

  14. The complete mitochondrial genome of Pallisentis celatus (Acanthocephala) with phylogenetic analysis of acanthocephalans and rotifers.

    PubMed

    Pan, Ting Shuang; Nie, Pin

    2013-07-01

    Acanthocephalans are a small group of obligate endoparasites. They and rotifers are recently placed in a group called Syndermata. However, phylogenetic relationships within classes of acanthocephalans, and between them and rotifers, have not been well resolved, possibly due to the lack of molecular data suitable for such analysis. In this study, the mitochondrial (mt) genome was sequenced from Pallisentis celatus (Van Cleave, 1928), an acanthocephalan in the class Eoacanthocephala, an intestinal parasite of rice-field eel, Monopterus albus (Zuiew, 1793), in China. The complete mt genome sequence of P. celatus is 13 855 bp long, containing 36 genes including 12 protein-coding genes, 22 transfer RNAs (tRNAs) and 2 ribosomal RNAs (rRNAs) as reported for other acanthocephalan species. All genes are encoded on the same strand and in the same direction. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that acanthocephalans are closely related with a clade containing bdelloids, which then correlates with the clade containing monogononts. The class Eoacanthocephala, containing P. celatus and Paratenuisentis ambiguus (Van Cleave, 1921) was closely related to the Palaeacanthocephala. It is thus indicated that acanthocephalans may be just clustered among groups of rotifers. However, the resolving of phylogenetic relationship among all classes of acanthocephalans and between them and rotifers may require further sampling and more molecular data.

  15. Molecular cloning, phylogenetic analysis and heat shock response of Babesia gibsoni heat shock protein 90.

    PubMed

    Yamasaki, Masahiro; Tsuboi, Yoshihiro; Taniyama, Yusuke; Uchida, Naohiro; Sato, Reeko; Nakamura, Kensuke; Ohta, Hiroshi; Takiguchi, Mitsuyoshi

    2016-09-01

    The Babesia gibsoni heat shock protein 90 (BgHSP90) gene was cloned and sequenced. The length of the gene was 2,610 bp with two introns. This gene was amplified from cDNA corresponding to full length coding sequence (CDS) with an open reading frame of 2,148 bp. A phylogenetic analysis of the CDS of HSP90 gene showed that B. gibsoni was most closely related to B. bovis and Babesia sp. BQ1/Lintan and lies within a phylogenetic cluster of protozoa. Moreover, mRNA transcription profile for BgHSP90 exposed to high temperature were examined by quantitative real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. BgHSP90 levels were elevated when the parasites were incubated at 43°C for 1 hr. PMID:27149891

  16. Whole genome sequencing as a tool for phylogenetic analysis of clinical strains of Mitis group streptococci.

    PubMed

    Rasmussen, L H; Dargis, R; Højholt, K; Christensen, J J; Skovgaard, O; Justesen, U S; Rosenvinge, F S; Moser, C; Lukjancenko, O; Rasmussen, S; Nielsen, X C

    2016-10-01

    Identification of Mitis group streptococci (MGS) to the species level is challenging for routine microbiology laboratories. Correct identification is crucial for the diagnosis of infective endocarditis, identification of treatment failure, and/or infection relapse. Eighty MGS from Danish patients with infective endocarditis were whole genome sequenced. We compared the phylogenetic analyses based on single genes (recA, sodA, gdh), multigene (MLSA), SNPs, and core-genome sequences. The six phylogenetic analyses generally showed a similar pattern of six monophyletic clusters, though a few differences were observed in single gene analyses. Species identification based on single gene analysis showed their limitations when more strains were included. In contrast, analyses incorporating more sequence data, like MLSA, SNPs and core-genome analyses, provided more distinct clustering. The core-genome tree showed the most distinct clustering. PMID:27325438

  17. The phylogenetic position of Rhopalura ophiocomae (Orthonectida) based on 18S ribosomal DNA sequence analysis.

    PubMed

    Hanelt, B; Van Schyndel, D; Adema, C M; Lewis, L A; Loker, E S

    1996-11-01

    The Orthonectida is a small, poorly known phylum of parasites of marine invertebrates. Their phylogenetic placement is obscure; they have been considered to be multicellular protozoans, primitive animals at a "mesozoan" grade of organization, or secondarily simplified flatworm-like organisms. The best known species in the phylum, Rhopalura ophiocomae, was collected on San Juan Island, Wash. and a complete 18S rDNA sequence was obtained. Using the models of minimum evolution and parsimony, phylogenetic analyses were undertaken and the results lend support to the following hypotheses about orthonectids: (1) orthonectids are more closely aligned with triploblastic metazoan taxa than with the protist or diploblastic metazoan taxa considered in this analysis; (2) orthonectids are not derived members of the phylum Platyhelminthes; and (3) orthonectids and rhombozoans are not each other's closest relatives, thus casting further doubt on the validity of the phylum Mesozoa previously used to encompass both groups. PMID:8896370

  18. Molecular cloning, phylogenetic analysis and heat shock response of Babesia gibsoni heat shock protein 90

    PubMed Central

    YAMASAKI, Masahiro; TSUBOI, Yoshihiro; TANIYAMA, Yusuke; UCHIDA, Naohiro; SATO, Reeko; NAKAMURA, Kensuke; OHTA, Hiroshi; TAKIGUCHI, Mitsuyoshi

    2016-01-01

    The Babesia gibsoni heat shock protein 90 (BgHSP90) gene was cloned and sequenced. The length of the gene was 2,610 bp with two introns. This gene was amplified from cDNA corresponding to full length coding sequence (CDS) with an open reading frame of 2,148 bp. A phylogenetic analysis of the CDS of HSP90 gene showed that B. gibsoni was most closely related to B. bovis and Babesia sp. BQ1/Lintan and lies within a phylogenetic cluster of protozoa. Moreover, mRNA transcription profile for BgHSP90 exposed to high temperature were examined by quantitative real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. BgHSP90 levels were elevated when the parasites were incubated at 43°C for 1 hr. PMID:27149891

  19. Whole genome sequencing as a tool for phylogenetic analysis of clinical strains of Mitis group streptococci.

    PubMed

    Rasmussen, L H; Dargis, R; Højholt, K; Christensen, J J; Skovgaard, O; Justesen, U S; Rosenvinge, F S; Moser, C; Lukjancenko, O; Rasmussen, S; Nielsen, X C

    2016-10-01

    Identification of Mitis group streptococci (MGS) to the species level is challenging for routine microbiology laboratories. Correct identification is crucial for the diagnosis of infective endocarditis, identification of treatment failure, and/or infection relapse. Eighty MGS from Danish patients with infective endocarditis were whole genome sequenced. We compared the phylogenetic analyses based on single genes (recA, sodA, gdh), multigene (MLSA), SNPs, and core-genome sequences. The six phylogenetic analyses generally showed a similar pattern of six monophyletic clusters, though a few differences were observed in single gene analyses. Species identification based on single gene analysis showed their limitations when more strains were included. In contrast, analyses incorporating more sequence data, like MLSA, SNPs and core-genome analyses, provided more distinct clustering. The core-genome tree showed the most distinct clustering.

  20. The phylogenetic position of Rhopalura ophiocomae (Orthonectida) based on 18S ribosomal DNA sequence analysis.

    PubMed

    Hanelt, B; Van Schyndel, D; Adema, C M; Lewis, L A; Loker, E S

    1996-11-01

    The Orthonectida is a small, poorly known phylum of parasites of marine invertebrates. Their phylogenetic placement is obscure; they have been considered to be multicellular protozoans, primitive animals at a "mesozoan" grade of organization, or secondarily simplified flatworm-like organisms. The best known species in the phylum, Rhopalura ophiocomae, was collected on San Juan Island, Wash. and a complete 18S rDNA sequence was obtained. Using the models of minimum evolution and parsimony, phylogenetic analyses were undertaken and the results lend support to the following hypotheses about orthonectids: (1) orthonectids are more closely aligned with triploblastic metazoan taxa than with the protist or diploblastic metazoan taxa considered in this analysis; (2) orthonectids are not derived members of the phylum Platyhelminthes; and (3) orthonectids and rhombozoans are not each other's closest relatives, thus casting further doubt on the validity of the phylum Mesozoa previously used to encompass both groups.

  1. Whole genome analysis of diverse Chlamydia trachomatis strains identifies phylogenetic relationships masked by current clinical typing

    PubMed Central

    Harris, Simon R.; Clarke, Ian N.; Seth-Smith, Helena M. B.; Solomon, Anthony W.; Cutcliffe, Lesley T.; Marsh, Peter; Skilton, Rachel J.; Holland, Martin J.; Mabey, David; Peeling, Rosanna W.; Lewis, David A.; Spratt, Brian G.; Unemo, Magnus; Persson, Kenneth; Bjartling, Carina; Brunham, Robert; de Vries, Henry J.C.; Morré, Servaas A.; Speksnijder, Arjen; Bébéar, Cécile M.; Clerc, Maïté; de Barbeyrac, Bertille; Parkhill, Julian; Thomson, Nicholas R.

    2012-01-01

    Chlamydia trachomatis is responsible for both trachoma and sexually transmitted infections causing substantial morbidity and economic cost globally. Despite this, our knowledge of its population and evolutionary genetics is limited. Here we present a detailed whole genome phylogeny from representative strains of both trachoma and lymphogranuloma venereum (LGV) biovars from temporally and geographically diverse sources. Our analysis demonstrates that predicting phylogenetic structure using the ompA gene, traditionally used to classify Chlamydia, is misleading because extensive recombination in this region masks true relationships. We show that in many instances ompA is a chimera that can be exchanged in part or whole, both within and between biovars. We also provide evidence for exchange of, and recombination within, the cryptic plasmid, another important diagnostic target. We have used our phylogenetic framework to show how genetic exchange has manifested itself in ocular, urogenital and LGV C. trachomatis strains, including the epidemic LGV serotype L2b. PMID:22406642

  2. Phylogenetic and pathotypical analysis of two virulent Newcastle disease viruses isolated from domestic ducks in China.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Shouping; Wang, Xiaoting; Zhao, Changguang; Liu, Dehua; Hu, Yanxin; Zhao, Jixun; Zhang, Guozhong

    2011-01-01

    Two velogenic Newcastle disease viruses (NDV) obtained from outbreaks in domestic ducks in China were characterized in this study. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that both strains clustered with the class II viruses, with one phylogenetically close to the genotype VII NDVs and the other closer to genotype IX. The deduced amino acid sequence of the cleavage site of the fusion (F) protein confirmed that both isolates contained the virulent motif (112)RRQK/RRF(117) at the cleavage site. The two NDVs had severe pathogenicity in fully susceptible chickens, resulting in 100% mortality. One of the isolates also demonstrated some pathogenicity in domestic ducks. The present study suggests that more than one genotype of NDV circulates in domestic ducks in China and viral transmission may occur among chickens and domestic ducks.

  3. Molecular cytogenetic characterisation and phylogenetic analysis of the seven cultivated Vigna species (Fabaceae).

    PubMed

    She, C-W; Jiang, X-H; Ou, L-J; Liu, J; Long, K-L; Zhang, L-H; Duan, W-T; Zhao, W; Hu, J-C

    2015-01-01

    The genomic organisation of the seven cultivated Vigna species, V. unguiculata, V. subterranea, V. angularis, V. umbellata, V. radiata, V. mungo and V. aconitifolia, was determined using sequential combined PI and DAPI (CPD) staining and dual-colour fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) with 5S and 45S rDNA probes. For phylogenetic analyses, comparative genomic in situ hybridisation (cGISH) onto somatic chromosomes and sequence analysis of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) of 45S rDNA were used. Quantitative karyotypes were established using chromosome measurements, fluorochrome bands and rDNA FISH signals. All species had symmetrical karyotypes composed of only metacentric or metacentric and submetacentric chromosomes. Distinct heterochromatin differentiation was revealed by CPD staining and DAPI counterstaining after FISH. The rDNA sites among all species differed in their number, location and size. cGISH of V. umbellata genomic DNA to the chromosomes of all species produced strong signals in all centromeric regions of V. umbellata and V. angularis, weak signals in all pericentromeric regions of V. aconitifolia, and CPD-banded proximal regions of V. mungo var. mungo. Molecular phylogenetic trees showed that V. angularis and V. umbellata were the closest relatives, and V. mungo and V. aconitifolia were relatively closely related; these species formed a group that was separated from another group comprising V. radiata, V. unguiculata ssp. sesquipedalis and V. subterranea. This result was consistent with the phylogenetic relationships inferred from the heterochromatin and cGISH patterns; thus, fluorochrome banding and cGISH are efficient tools for the phylogenetic analysis of Vigna species.

  4. A Semi-parametric Bayesian Approach for Differential Expression Analysis of RNA-seq Data

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Fangfang; Wang, Chong

    2016-01-01

    RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) technologies have revolutionized the way agricultural biologists study gene expression as well as generated a tremendous amount of data waiting for analysis. Detecting differentially expressed genes is one of the fundamental steps in RNA-seq data analysis. In this paper, we model the count data from RNA-seq experiments with a Poisson-Gamma hierarchical model, or equivalently, a negative binomial (NB) model. We derive a semi-parametric Bayesian approach with a Dirichlet process as the prior model for the distribution of fold changes between the two treatment means. An inference strategy using Gibbs algorithm is developed for differential expression analysis. The results of several simulation studies show that our proposed method outperforms other methods including the popularly applied edgeR and DESeq methods. We also discuss an application of our method to a dataset that compares gene expression between bundle sheath and mesophyll cells in maize leaves. PMID:27570441

  5. Phylogenetic and serological analysis of turnip ringspot virus and radish mosaic virus isolates.

    PubMed

    Koloniuk, Igor; Petrzik, Karel

    2012-03-01

    Turnip ringspot virus (TuRSV) has been proposed to be a member of a new species in the genus Comovirus. Its remarkable host-range similarity to radish mosaic virus (RaMV) may have led to its misrecognition in the past. Findings from both sequence analysis and serological tests support the assignment of TuRSV to a new comovirus species. In addition, phylogenetic analysis suggests that the two genome segments of some TuRSV isolates have a heterogeneous origin. PMID:22160585

  6. Appropriate sampling for intracellular amino acid analysis in five phylogenetically different yeasts.

    PubMed

    Bolten, Christoph J; Wittmann, Christoph

    2008-11-01

    Methanol quenching and fast filtration, the two most common sampling protocols in microbial metabolome analysis, were validated for intracellular amino acid analysis in phylogenetically different yeast strains comprising Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Kluyveromyces marxianus, Pichia pastoris, Schizosaccharomyces pombe and Zygosaccharomyces bailii. With only few exceptions for selected amino acids, all yeasts exhibited negligible metabolite leakage during quenching with 60% cold buffered methanol. Slightly higher leakage was observed with increasing methanol content in the quenching solution. Fast filtration resulted in identical levels for intracellular amino acids in all strains tested. The results clearly demonstrate the validity of both approaches for leakage-free sampling of amino acids in yeast.

  7. Datamonkey 2010: a suite of phylogenetic analysis tools for evolutionary biology.

    PubMed

    Delport, Wayne; Poon, Art F Y; Frost, Simon D W; Kosakovsky Pond, Sergei L

    2010-10-01

    Datamonkey is a popular web-based suite of phylogenetic analysis tools for use in evolutionary biology. Since the original release in 2005, we have expanded the analysis options to include recently developed algorithmic methods for recombination detection, evolutionary fingerprinting of genes, codon model selection, co-evolution between sites, identification of sites, which rapidly escape host-immune pressure and HIV-1 subtype assignment. The traditional selection tools have also been augmented to include recent developments in the field. Here, we summarize the analyses options currently available on Datamonkey, and provide guidelines for their use in evolutionary biology. Availability and documentation: http://www.datamonkey.org.

  8. Molecular Taxonomic Evidence for Two Distinct Genotypes of Mycobacterium yongonense via Genome-Based Phylogenetic Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Byoung-Jun; Kim, Bo-Ram; Lee, So-Young; Kim, Ga-Na; Kook, Yoon-Hoh; Kim, Bum-Joon

    2016-01-01

    Recently, we introduced a distinct Mycobacterium intracellulare INT-5 genotype, distantly related to other genotypes of M. intracellulare (INT-1 to -4). The aim of this study is to determine the exact taxonomic status of the M. intracellulare INT-5 genotype via genome-based phylogenetic analysis. To this end, genome sequences of the two INT-5 strains, MOTT-H4Y and MOTT-36Y were compared with M. intracellulare ATCC 13950T and Mycobacterium yongonense DSM 45126T. Our phylogenetic analysis based on complete genome sequences, multi-locus sequence typing (MLST) of 35 target genes, and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) analysis indicated that the two INT-5 strains were more closely related to M. yongonense DSM 45126T than the M. intracellulare strains. These results suggest their taxonomic transfer from M. intracellulare into M. yongonense. Finally, we selected 5 target genes (argH, dnaA, deaD, hsp65, and recF) and used SNPs for the identification of M. yongonese strains from other M. avium complex (MAC) strains. The application of the SNP analysis to 14 MAC clinical isolates enabled the selective identification of 4 M. yongonense clinical isolates from the other MACs. In conclusion, our genome-based phylogenetic analysis showed that the taxonomic status of two INT-5 strains, MOTT-H4Y and MOTT-36Y should be revised into M. yongonense. Our results also suggest that M. yongonense could be divided into 2 distinct genotypes (the Type I genotype with the M. parascrofulaceum rpoB gene and the Type II genotype with the M. intracellulare rpoB gene) depending on the presence of the lateral gene transfer of rpoB from M. parascrofulaceum. PMID:27031100

  9. A Preliminary Bayesian Analysis of Incomplete Longitudinal Data from a Small Sample: Methodological Advances in an International Comparative Study of Educational Inequality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hsieh, Chueh-An; Maier, Kimberly S.

    2009-01-01

    The capacity of Bayesian methods in estimating complex statistical models is undeniable. Bayesian data analysis is seen as having a range of advantages, such as an intuitive probabilistic interpretation of the parameters of interest, the efficient incorporation of prior information to empirical data analysis, model averaging and model selection.…

  10. Bayesian analysis of response to selection: a case study using litter size in Danish Yorkshire pigs.

    PubMed Central

    Sorensen, D; Vernersen, A; Andersen, S

    2000-01-01

    Implementation of a Bayesian analysis of a selection experiment is illustrated using litter size [total number of piglets born (TNB)] in Danish Yorkshire pigs. Other traits studied include average litter weight at birth (WTAB) and proportion of piglets born dead (PRBD). Response to selection for TNB was analyzed with a number of models, which differed in their level of hierarchy, in their prior distributions, and in the parametric form of the likelihoods. A model assessment study favored a particular form of an additive genetic model. With this model, the Monte Carlo estimate of the 95% probability interval of response to selection was (0.23; 0.60), with a posterior mean of 0.43 piglets. WTAB showed a correlated response of -7.2 g, with a 95% probability interval equal to (-33.1; 18.9). The posterior mean of the genetic correlation between TNB and WTAB was -0.23 with a 95% probability interval equal to (-0.46; -0.01). PRBD was studied informally; it increases with larger litters, when litter size is >7 piglets born. A number of methodological issues related to the Bayesian model assessment study are discussed, as well as the genetic consequences of inferring response to selection using additive genetic models. PMID:10978292

  11. A Bayesian analysis of the 69 highest energy cosmic rays detected by the Pierre Auger Observatory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khanin, Alexander; Mortlock, Daniel J.

    2016-08-01

    The origins of ultrahigh energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) remain an open question. Several attempts have been made to cross-correlate the arrival directions of the UHECRs with catalogues of potential sources, but no definite conclusion has been reached. We report a Bayesian analysis of the 69 events, from the Pierre Auger Observatory (PAO), that aims to determine the fraction of the UHECRs that originate from known AGNs in the Veron-Cety & Verson (VCV) catalogue, as well as AGNs detected with the Swift Burst Alert Telescope (Swift-BAT), galaxies from the 2MASS Redshift Survey (2MRS), and an additional volume-limited sample of 17 nearby AGNs. The study makes use of a multilevel Bayesian model of UHECR injection, propagation and detection. We find that for reasonable ranges of prior parameters the Bayes factors disfavour a purely isotropic model. For fiducial values of the model parameters, we report 68 per cent credible intervals for the fraction of source originating UHECRs of 0.09^{+0.05}_{-0.04}, 0.25^{+0.09}_{-0.08}, 0.24^{+0.12}_{-0.10}, and 0.08^{+0.04}_{-0.03} for the VCV, Swift-BAT and 2MRS catalogues, and the sample of 17 AGNs, respectively.

  12. Variational Bayesian mixture of experts models and sensitivity analysis for nonlinear dynamical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baldacchino, Tara; Cross, Elizabeth J.; Worden, Keith; Rowson, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Most physical systems in reality exhibit a nonlinear relationship between input and output variables. This nonlinearity can manifest itself in terms of piecewise continuous functions or bifurcations, between some or all of the variables. The aims of this paper are two-fold. Firstly, a mixture of experts (MoE) model was trained on different physical systems exhibiting these types of nonlinearities. MoE models separate the input space into homogeneous regions and a different expert is responsible for the different regions. In this paper, the experts were low order polynomial regression models, thus avoiding the need for high-order polynomials. The model was trained within a Bayesian framework using variational Bayes, whereby a novel approach within the MoE literature was used in order to determine the number of experts in the model. Secondly, Bayesian sensitivity analysis (SA) of the systems under investigation was performed using the identified probabilistic MoE model in order to assess how uncertainty in the output can be attributed to uncertainty in the different inputs. The proposed methodology was first tested on a bifurcating Duffing oscillator, and it was then applied to real data sets obtained from the Tamar and Z24 bridges. In all cases, the MoE model was successful in identifying bifurcations and different physical regimes in the data by accurately dividing the input space; including identifying boundaries that were not parallel to coordinate axes.

  13. Critically evaluating the theory and performance of Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures

    PubMed Central

    Moore, Brian R.; Höhna, Sebastian; May, Michael R.; Rannala, Bruce; Huelsenbeck, John P.

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures (BAMM) has recently taken the study of lineage diversification by storm. BAMM estimates the diversification-rate parameters (speciation and extinction) for every branch of a study phylogeny and infers the number and location of diversification-rate shifts across branches of a tree. Our evaluation of BAMM reveals two major theoretical errors: (i) the likelihood function (which estimates the model parameters from the data) is incorrect, and (ii) the compound Poisson process prior model (which describes the prior distribution of diversification-rate shifts across branches) is incoherent. Using simulation, we demonstrate that these theoretical issues cause statistical pathologies; posterior estimates of the number of diversification-rate shifts are strongly influenced by the assumed prior, and estimates of diversification-rate parameters are unreliable. Moreover, the inability to correctly compute the likelihood or to correctly specify the prior for rate-variable trees precludes the use of Bayesian approaches for testing hypotheses regarding the number and location of diversification-rate shifts using BAMM. PMID:27512038

  14. Assessing State Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: Using Bayesian Network Analysis of Social Factors

    SciTech Connect

    Coles, Garill A.; Brothers, Alan J.; Olson, Jarrod; Whitney, Paul D.

    2010-04-16

    A Bayesian network (BN) model of social factors can support proliferation assessments by estimating the likelihood that a state will pursue a nuclear weapon. Social factors including political, economic, nuclear capability, security, and national identity and psychology factors may play as important a role in whether a State pursues nuclear weapons as more physical factors. This paper will show how using Bayesian reasoning on a generic case of a would-be proliferator State can be used to combine evidence that supports proliferation assessment. Theories and analysis by political scientists can be leveraged in a quantitative and transparent way to indicate proliferation risk. BN models facilitate diagnosis and inference in a probabilistic environment by using a network of nodes and acyclic directed arcs between the nodes whose connections, or absence of, indicate probabilistic relevance, or independence. We propose a BN model that would use information from both traditional safeguards and the strengthened safeguards associated with the Additional Protocol to indicate countries with a high risk of proliferating nuclear weapons. This model could be used in a variety of applications such a prioritization tool and as a component of state safeguards evaluations. This paper will discuss the benefits of BN reasoning, the development of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) BN state proliferation model and how it could be employed as an analytical tool.

  15. Bayesian Neural Networks for Uncertainty Analysis of Hydrologic Modeling: A Comparison of Two Schemes

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Xuesong; Zhao, Kaiguang

    2012-06-01

    Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have been shown as useful tools to analyze modeling uncertainty of Neural Networks (NNs). This research focuses on the comparison of two BNNs. The first BNNs (BNN-I) use statistical methods to describe the characteristics of different uncertainty sources (input, parameter, and model structure) and integrate these uncertainties into a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework to estimate total uncertainty. The second BNNs (BNN-II) lump all uncertainties into a single error term (i.e. the residual between model prediction and measurement). In this study, we propose a simple BNN-II, which use Genetic Algorithms (GA) and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to calibrate Neural Networks with different structures (number of hidden units) and combine the predictions from different NNs to derive predictions and uncertainty analysis. We tested these two BNNs in two watersheds for daily and monthly hydrologic simulation. The BMA based BNNs developed in this study outperforms BNN-I in the two watersheds in terms of both accurate prediction and uncertainty estimation. These results show that, given incomplete understanding of the characteristics associated with each uncertainty source, the simple lumped error approach may yield better prediction and uncertainty estimation.

  16. Spatial-Temporal Epidemiology of Tuberculosis in Mainland China: An Analysis Based on Bayesian Theory

    PubMed Central

    Cao, Kai; Yang, Kun; Wang, Chao; Guo, Jin; Tao, Lixin; Liu, Qingrong; Gehendra, Mahara; Zhang, Yingjie; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To explore the spatial-temporal interaction effect within a Bayesian framework and to probe the ecological influential factors for tuberculosis. Methods: Six different statistical models containing parameters of time, space, spatial-temporal interaction and their combination were constructed based on a Bayesian framework. The optimum model was selected according to the deviance information criterion (DIC) value. Coefficients of climate variables were then estimated using the best fitting model. Results: The model containing spatial-temporal interaction parameter was the best fitting one, with the smallest DIC value (−4,508,660). Ecological analysis results showed the relative risks (RRs) of average temperature, rainfall, wind speed, humidity, and air pressure were 1.00324 (95% CI, 1.00150–1.00550), 1.01010 (95% CI, 1.01007–1.01013), 0.83518 (95% CI, 0.93732–0.96138), 0.97496 (95% CI, 0.97181–1.01386), and 1.01007 (95% CI, 1.01003–1.01011), respectively. Conclusions: The spatial-temporal interaction was statistically meaningful and the prevalence of tuberculosis was influenced by the time and space interaction effect. Average temperature, rainfall, wind speed, and air pressure influenced tuberculosis. Average humidity had no influence on tuberculosis. PMID:27164117

  17. Critically evaluating the theory and performance of Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures.

    PubMed

    Moore, Brian R; Höhna, Sebastian; May, Michael R; Rannala, Bruce; Huelsenbeck, John P

    2016-08-23

    Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures (BAMM) has recently taken the study of lineage diversification by storm. BAMM estimates the diversification-rate parameters (speciation and extinction) for every branch of a study phylogeny and infers the number and location of diversification-rate shifts across branches of a tree. Our evaluation of BAMM reveals two major theoretical errors: (i) the likelihood function (which estimates the model parameters from the data) is incorrect, and (ii) the compound Poisson process prior model (which describes the prior distribution of diversification-rate shifts across branches) is incoherent. Using simulation, we demonstrate that these theoretical issues cause statistical pathologies; posterior estimates of the number of diversification-rate shifts are strongly influenced by the assumed prior, and estimates of diversification-rate parameters are unreliable. Moreover, the inability to correctly compute the likelihood or to correctly specify the prior for rate-variable trees precludes the use of Bayesian approaches for testing hypotheses regarding the number and location of diversification-rate shifts using BAMM. PMID:27512038

  18. Bayesian soft x-ray tomography and MHD mode analysis on HL-2A

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Dong; Liu, Yi; Svensson, J.; Liu, Y. Q.; Song, X. M.; Yu, L. M.; Mao, Rui; Fu, B. Z.; Deng, Wei; Yuan, B. S.; Ji, X. Q.; Xu, Yuan; Chen, Wei; Zhou, Yan; Yang, Q. W.; Duan, X. R.; Liu, Yong; HL-2A Team

    2016-03-01

    A Bayesian based tomography method using so-called Gaussian processes (GPs) for the emission model has been applied to the soft x-ray (SXR) diagnostics on HL-2A tokamak. To improve the accuracy of reconstructions, the standard GP is extended to a non-stationary version so that different smoothness between the plasma center and the edge can be taken into account in the algorithm. The uncertainty in the reconstruction arising from measurement errors and incapability can be fully analyzed by the usage of Bayesian probability theory. In this work, the SXR reconstructions by this non-stationary Gaussian processes tomography (NSGPT) method have been compared with the equilibrium magnetic flux surfaces, generally achieving a satisfactory agreement in terms of both shape and position. In addition, singular-value-decomposition (SVD) and Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) techniques have been applied for the analysis of SXR and magnetic diagnostics, in order to explore the spatial and temporal features of the saturated long-lived magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) instability induced by energetic particles during neutral beam injection (NBI) on HL-2A. The result shows that this ideal internal kink instability has a dominant m/n  =  1/1 mode structure along with a harmonics m/n  =  2/2, which are coupled near the q  =  1 surface with a rotation frequency of 12 kHz.

  19. Multi-level Bayesian safety analysis with unprocessed Automatic Vehicle Identification data for an urban expressway.

    PubMed

    Shi, Qi; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Yu, Rongjie

    2016-03-01

    In traffic safety studies, crash frequency modeling of total crashes is the cornerstone before proceeding to more detailed safety evaluation. The relationship between crash occurrence and factors such as traffic flow and roadway geometric characteristics has been extensively explored for a better understanding of crash mechanisms. In this study, a multi-level Bayesian framework has been developed in an effort to identify the crash contributing factors on an urban expressway in the Central Florida area. Two types of traffic data from the Automatic Vehicle Identification system, which are the processed data capped at speed limit and the unprocessed data retaining the original speed were incorporated in the analysis along with road geometric information. The model framework was proposed to account for the hierarchical data structure and the heterogeneity among the traffic and roadway geometric data. Multi-level and random parameters models were constructed and compared with the Negative Binomial model under the Bayesian inference framework. Results showed that the unprocessed traffic data was superior. Both multi-level models and random parameters models outperformed the Negative Binomial model and the models with random parameters achieved the best model fitting. The contributing factors identified imply that on the urban expressway lower speed and higher speed variation could significantly increase the crash likelihood. Other geometric factors were significant including auxiliary lanes and horizontal curvature.

  20. Multi-level Bayesian safety analysis with unprocessed Automatic Vehicle Identification data for an urban expressway.

    PubMed

    Shi, Qi; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Yu, Rongjie

    2016-03-01

    In traffic safety studies, crash frequency modeling of total crashes is the cornerstone before proceeding to more detailed safety evaluation. The relationship between crash occurrence and factors such as traffic flow and roadway geometric characteristics has been extensively explored for a better understanding of crash mechanisms. In this study, a multi-level Bayesian framework has been developed in an effort to identify the crash contributing factors on an urban expressway in the Central Florida area. Two types of traffic data from the Automatic Vehicle Identification system, which are the processed data capped at speed limit and the unprocessed data retaining the original speed were incorporated in the analysis along with road geometric information. The model framework was proposed to account for the hierarchical data structure and the heterogeneity among the traffic and roadway geometric data. Multi-level and random parameters models were constructed and compared with the Negative Binomial model under the Bayesian inference framework. Results showed that the unprocessed traffic data was superior. Both multi-level models and random parameters models outperformed the Negative Binomial model and the models with random parameters achieved the best model fitting. The contributing factors identified imply that on the urban expressway lower speed and higher speed variation could significantly increase the crash likelihood. Other geometric factors were significant including auxiliary lanes and horizontal curvature. PMID:26722989

  1. Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon chronologies: examples from the European Late-glacial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blockley, S. P. E.; Lowe, J. J.; Walker, M. J. C.; Asioli, A.; Trincardi, F.; Coope, G. R.; Donahue, R. E.

    2004-02-01

    Although there are many Late-glacial (ca. 15 000-11 000 cal. yr BP) proxy climate records from northwest Europe, some analysed at a very high temporal resolution (decadal to century scale), attempts to establish time-stratigraphical correlations between sequences are constrained by problems of radiocarbon dating. In an attempt to overcome some of these difficulties, we have used a Bayesian approach to the analysis of radiocarbon chronologies for two Late-glacial sites in the British Isles and one in the Adriatic Sea. The palaeoclimatic records from the three sites were then compared with that from the GRIP Greenland ice-core. Although there are some apparent differences in the timing of climatic events during the early part of the Late-glacial (pre-14 000 cal. yr BP), the results suggest that regional climatic changes appear to have been broadly comparable between Greenland, the British Isles and the Adriatic during the major part of the Late-glacial (i.e. between 14 000 and 11 000 cal. yr BP). The advantage of using the Bayesian approach is that it provides a means of testing the reliability of Late-glacial radiocarbon chronologies that is independent of regional chronostratigraphical (climatostratigraphical) frameworks. It also uses the full radiocarbon inventory available for each sequence and makes explicit any data selection applied. Potentially, therefore, it offers a more objective basis for comparing regional radiocarbon chronologies than the conventional approaches that have been used hitherto. Copyright

  2. Joint Bayesian analysis of birthweight and censored gestational age using finite mixture models

    PubMed Central

    Schwartz, Scott L.; Gelfand, Alan E.; Miranda, Marie L.

    2016-01-01

    Birthweight and gestational age are closely related and represent important indicators of a healthy pregnancy. Customary modeling for birthweight is conditional on gestational age. However, joint modeling directly addresses the relationship between gestational age and birthweight, and provides increased flexibility and interpretation as well as a strategy to avoid using gestational age as an intermediate variable. Previous proposals have utilized finite mixtures of bivariate regression models to incorporate well-established risk factors into analysis (e.g. sex and birth order of the baby, maternal age, race, and tobacco use) while examining the non-Gaussian shape of the joint birthweight and gestational age distribution. We build on this approach by demonstrating the inferential (prognostic) benefits of joint modeling (e.g. investigation of `age inappropriate' outcomes like small for gestational age) and hence re-emphasize the importance of capturing the non-Gaussian distributional shapes. We additionally extend current models through a latent specification which admits interval-censored gestational age. We work within a Bayesian framework which enables inference beyond customary parameter estimation and prediction as well as exact uncertainty assessment. The model is applied to a portion of the 2003–2006 North Carolina Detailed Birth Record data (n=336129) available through the Children's Environmental Health Initiative and is fitted using the Bayesian methodology and Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches. PMID:20575047

  3. [Biotypes and phylogenetic analysis of Bemisia tabaci (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) in China].

    PubMed

    Xu, Li-Li; Cai, Li; Shen, Wei-Jiang; Du, Yu-Zhou

    2014-04-01

    Bemisia tabaci (Genn.) (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) is considered taxonomically as a species complex and could cause serious damages to crops by directly feeding on phloem and/or indirectly transmission of plant viruses. In this study, biotypes and phylogenetic relationships of 33 geographic populations of B. tabaci collected from nine provinces of China in 2010 and 2011 were studied based on the mitochondrial COI gene. The results showed there were a total of six biotypes of B. tabaci (B, Q, ZHJ-1, ZHJ-3, An and Nauru) recovered in China and the geographical distribution of these six biotypes was uneven. Phylogenetic analysis showed that biotype An B. tabaci from Taiwan clustered together with Hainan biotype An populations, indicating these two geographic populations might originate from a same ancestor. In addition, biotype B B. tabaci in China had a 99% genetical similarity compared to that from France and Uganda. However, relationships of biotype Q on the phylogenetic tree were divided into two different clusters. One was occupied with the population from China and Western Mediterranean Sea countries (France and Morocco) and the other contained biotype Q populations from Eastern Mediterranean Sea countries (Israel and Turkey). Overall, the results suggested that biotype Q B. tabaci in China was genetically similar to that from Western Mediterranean Sea countries and it could be highly possible that Chinese biotype Q B. tabaci originated from Western Mediterranean Sea areas. PMID:25011310

  4. Phylogenetic analysis of the Trypanosoma genus based on the heat-shock protein 70 gene.

    PubMed

    Fraga, Jorge; Fernández-Calienes, Aymé; Montalvo, Ana Margarita; Maes, Ilse; Deborggraeve, Stijn; Büscher, Philippe; Dujardin, Jean-Claude; Van der Auwera, Gert

    2016-09-01

    Trypanosome evolution was so far essentially studied on the basis of phylogenetic analyses of small subunit ribosomal RNA (SSU-rRNA) and glycosomal glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (gGAPDH) genes. We used for the first time the 70kDa heat-shock protein gene (hsp70) to investigate the phylogenetic relationships among 11 Trypanosoma species on the basis of 1380 nucleotides from 76 sequences corresponding to 65 strains. We also constructed a phylogeny based on combined datasets of SSU-rDNA, gGAPDH and hsp70 sequences. The obtained clusters can be correlated with the sections and subgenus classifications of mammal-infecting trypanosomes except for Trypanosoma theileri and Trypanosoma rangeli. Our analysis supports the classification of Trypanosoma species into clades rather than in sections and subgenera, some of which being polyphyletic. Nine clades were recognized: Trypanosoma carassi, Trypanosoma congolense, Trypanosoma cruzi, Trypanosoma grayi, Trypanosoma lewisi, T. rangeli, T. theileri, Trypanosoma vivax and Trypanozoon. These results are consistent with existing knowledge of the genus' phylogeny. Within the T. cruzi clade, three groups of T. cruzi discrete typing units could be clearly distinguished, corresponding to TcI, TcIII, and TcII+V+VI, while support for TcIV was lacking. Phylogenetic analyses based on hsp70 demonstrated that this molecular marker can be applied for discriminating most of the Trypanosoma species and clades. PMID:27180897

  5. Multi-locus phylogenetic analysis reveals the pattern and tempo of bony fish evolution

    PubMed Central

    Broughton, Richard E.; Betancur-R., Ricardo; Li, Chenhong; Arratia, Gloria; Ortí, Guillermo

    2013-01-01

    Over half of all vertebrates are “fishes”, which exhibit enormous diversity in morphology, physiology, behavior, reproductive biology, and ecology. Investigation of fundamental areas of vertebrate biology depend critically on a robust phylogeny of fishes, yet evolutionary relationships among the major actinopterygian and sarcopterygian lineages have not been conclusively resolved. Although a consensus phylogeny of teleosts has been emerging recently, it has been based on analyses of various subsets of actinopterygian taxa, but not on a full sample of all bony fishes. Here we conducted a comprehensive phylogenetic study on a broad taxonomic sample of 61 actinopterygian and sarcopterygian lineages (with a chondrichthyan outgroup) using a molecular data set of 21 independent loci. These data yielded a resolved phylogenetic hypothesis for extant Osteichthyes, including 1) reciprocally monophyletic Sarcopterygii and Actinopterygii, as currently understood, with polypteriforms as the first diverging lineage within Actinopterygii; 2) a monophyletic group containing gars and bowfin (= Holostei) as sister group to teleosts; and 3) the earliest diverging lineage among teleosts being Elopomorpha, rather than Osteoglossomorpha. Relaxed-clock dating analysis employing a set of 24 newly applied fossil calibrations reveals divergence times that are more consistent with paleontological estimates than previous studies. Establishing a new phylogenetic pattern with accurate divergence dates for bony fishes illustrates several areas where the fossil record is incomplete and provides critical new insights on diversification of this important vertebrate group. PMID:23788273

  6. Molecular epidemiology and phylogenetic analysis of Dengue virus type-1 and 2 isolated in Malaysia

    PubMed Central

    Chew, Muhd Hasyim; Rahman, Md. Mostafizur; Hussin, Salasawati

    2015-01-01

    Objective: Detection of different serotypes of dengue virus and provide information on origin, distribution and genotype of the virus. Methods: Dengue virus serotypes identified as DEN-1 and DEN-2 were amplified and sequenced with E gene. The consensus sequences were aligned with references E gene sequences of globally available GenBank. Phylogenetic analysis was performed using Neighbor-joining and Kimura 2-parameter model to construct phylogenetic tree. Results: A total of 53 dengue virus isolates were positive, of which 38 (71.7%) were DENV-1 and 15 (28.3%) were DENV-2. Phylogenetic tree of DENV-1 and DENV-2 showed that the isolates were clustered in genotype I and cosmopolitan genotype, respectively considered the predominant genotypes in Southeast Asian countries. The molecular epidemiology genotype I DENV-1 and cosmopolitan genotype DENV-2 have been co-circulating in Klang Valley areas, Malaysia without shifting of genotype. Conclusion: The study reveals that DENV-1 and DENV-2 have been circulating in Malaysia. The isolates are clustered in genotype 1 and cosmopolitian genotype, respectively. The study results would help in planning for prevention and control of dengue virus in Malaysia. PMID:26150855

  7. The Green Clade grows: A phylogenetic analysis of Aplastodiscus (Anura; Hylidae).

    PubMed

    Berneck, Bianca V M; Haddad, Célio F B; Lyra, Mariana L; Cruz, Carlos A G; Faivovich, Julián

    2016-04-01

    Green tree frogs of the genus Aplastodiscus occur in the Atlantic Forest and Cerrado biomes of South America. The genus comprises 15 medium-sized species placed in three species groups diagnosed mainly by cloacal morphology. A phylogenetic analysis was conducted to: (1) test the monophyly of these species groups; (2) explore the phylogenetic relationships among putative species; and (3) investigate species boundaries. The dataset included eight mitochondrial and nuclear gene fragments for up to 6642 bp per specimen. The results strongly support the monophyly of Aplastodiscus and of the A. albofrenatus and A. perviridis groups. Aplastodiscus sibilatus is the sister taxon of all other species of Aplastodiscus, making the A. albosignatus Group non-monophyletic as currently defined. At least six unnamed species are recognized for Aplastodiscus, increasing the diversity of the genus by 40%. A fourth species group, the A. sibilatus Group is recognized. Aplastodiscus musicus is transferred from the A. albofrenatus Group to the A. albosignatus Group, and A. callipygius is considered a junior synonym of A. albosignatus. Characters related to external cloacal morphology reveal an interesting evolutionary pattern of parallelisms and reversions, suggesting an undocumented level of complexity. We analyze, in light of our phylogenetic results, the evolution of reproductive biology and chromosome morphology in Aplastodiscus.

  8. A broadscale phylogenetic analysis of group II intron RNAs and intron-encoded reverse transcriptases.

    PubMed

    Simon, Dawn M; Kelchner, Scot A; Zimmerly, Steven

    2009-12-01

    Group II introns are self-splicing RNAs that are frequently assumed to be the ancestors of spliceosomal introns. They are widely distributed in bacteria and are also found in organelles of plants, fungi, and protists. In this study, we present a broadscale phylogenetic analysis of group II introns using sequence data from both the conserved RNA structure and the intron-encoded reverse transcriptase (RT). Two similar phylogenies are estimated for the RT open reading frame (ORF), based on either amino acid or nucleotide sequence, whereas one phylogeny is produced for the RNA. In making these estimates, we confronted nearly all the classic challenges to phylogenetic inference, including positional saturation, base composition heterogeneity, short internodes with low support, and sensitivity to taxon sampling. Although the major lineages are well-defined, robust resolution of topology is not possible between these lineages. The approximately unbiased (AU) and Shimodaira-Hasegawa topology tests indicated that the RT ORF and RNA ribozyme data sets are in significant conflict under a variety of models, revealing the possibility of imperfect coevolution between group II introns and their intron-encoded ORFs. The high level of sequence divergence, large timescale, and limited number of alignable characters in our study are representative of many RTs and group I introns, and our results suggest that phylogenetic analyses of any of these sequences could suffer from the same sources of error and instability identified in this study.

  9. Phylogenetic Diversity of the Bacillus pumilus Group and the Marine Ecotype Revealed by Multilocus Sequence Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Dong, Chunming; Sun, Fengqin; Wang, Liping; Li, Guangyu; Shao, Zongze

    2013-01-01

    Bacteria closely related to Bacillus pumilus cannot be distinguished from such other species as B. safensis, B. stratosphericus, B. altitudinis and B. aerophilus simply by 16S rRNA gene sequence. In this report, 76 marine strains were subjected to phylogenetic analysis based on 7 housekeeping genes to understand the phylogeny and biogeography in comparison with other origins. A phylogenetic tree based on the 7 housekeeping genes concatenated in the order of gyrB-rpoB-pycA-pyrE-mutL-aroE-trpB was constructed and compared with trees based on the single genes. All these trees exhibited a similar topology structure with small variations. Our 79 strains were divided into 6 groups from A to F; Group A was the largest and contained 49 strains close to B. altitudinis. Additional two large groups were presented by B. safensis and B. pumilus respectively. Among the housekeeping genes, gyrB and pyrE showed comparatively better resolution power and may serve as molecular markers to distinguish these closely related strains. Furthermore, a recombinant phylogenetic tree based on the gyrB gene and containing 73 terrestrial and our isolates was constructed to detect the relationship between marine and other sources. The tree clearly showed that the bacteria of marine origin were clustered together in all the large groups. In contrast, the cluster belonging to B. safensis was mainly composed of bacteria of terrestrial origin. Interestingly, nearly all the marine isolates were at the top of the tree, indicating the possibility of the recent divergence of this bacterial group in marine environments. We conclude that B. altitudinis bacteria are the most widely spread of the B. pumilus group in marine environments. In summary, this report provides the first evidence regarding the systematic evolution of this bacterial group, and knowledge of their phylogenetic diversity will help in the understanding of their ecological role and distribution in marine environments. PMID:24244618

  10. Bayesian Analysis for Exponential Random Graph Models Using the Adaptive Exchange Sampler*

    PubMed Central

    Jin, Ick Hoon; Yuan, Ying; Liang, Faming

    2014-01-01

    Exponential random graph models have been widely used in social network analysis. However, these models are extremely difficult to handle from a statistical viewpoint, because of the intractable normalizing constant and model degeneracy. In this paper, we consider a fully Bayesian analysis for exponential random graph models using the adaptive exchange sampler, which solves the intractable normalizing constant and model degeneracy issues encountered in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. The adaptive exchange sampler can be viewed as a MCMC extension of the exchange algorithm, and it generates auxiliary networks via an importance sampling procedure from an auxiliary Markov chain running in parallel. The convergence of this algorithm is established under mild conditions. The adaptive exchange sampler is illustrated using a few social networks, including the Florentine business network, molecule synthetic network, and dolphins network. The results indicate that the adaptive exchange algorithm can produce more accurate estimates than approximate exchange algorithms, while maintaining the same computational efficiency. PMID:24653788

  11. A Bayesian Approach for Instrumental Variable Analysis with Censored Time-to-Event Outcome

    PubMed Central

    Li, Gang; Lu, Xuyang

    2014-01-01

    Instrumental variable (IV) analysis has been widely used in economics, epidemiology, and other fields to estimate the causal effects of covariates on outcomes, in the presence of unobserved confounders and/or measurement errors in covariates. However, IV methods for time-to-event outcome with censored data remain underdeveloped. This paper proposes a Bayesian approach for IV analysis with censored time-to-event outcome by using a two-stage linear model. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling method is developed for parameter estimation for both normal and non-normal linear models with elliptically contoured error distributions. Performance of our method is examined by simulation studies. Our method largely reduces bias and greatly improves coverage probability of the estimated causal effect, compared to the method that ignores the unobserved confounders and measurement errors. We illustrate our method on the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. PMID:25393617

  12. Bayesian analysis of congruence of core genes in Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus and implications on horizontal gene transfer.

    PubMed

    Matzke, Nicholas J; Shih, Patrick M; Kerfeld, Cheryl A

    2014-01-01

    It is often suggested that horizontal gene transfer is so ubiquitous in microbes that the concept of a phylogenetic tree representing the pattern of vertical inheritance is oversimplified or even positively misleading. "Universal proteins" have been used to infer the organismal phylogeny, but have been criticized as being only the "tree of one percent." Currently, few options exist for those wishing to rigorously assess how well a universal protein phylogeny, based on a relative handful of well-conserved genes, represents the phylogenetic histories of hundreds of genes. Here, we address this problem by proposing a visualization method and a statistical test within a Bayesian framework. We use the genomes of marine cyanobacteria, a group thought to exhibit substantial amounts of HGT, as a test case. We take 379 orthologous gene families from 28 cyanobacteria genomes and estimate the Bayesian posterior distributions of trees - a "treecloud" - for each, as well as for a concatenated dataset based on putative "universal proteins." We then calculate the average distance between trees within and between all treeclouds on various metrics and visualize this high-dimensional space with non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMMDS). We show that the tree space is strongly clustered and that the universal protein treecloud is statistically significantly closer to the center of this tree space than any individual gene treecloud. We apply several commonly-used tests for incongruence/HGT and show that they agree HGT is rare in this dataset, but make different choices about which genes were subject to HGT. Our results show that the question of the representativeness of the "tree of one percent" is a quantitative empirical question, and that the phylogenetic central tendency is a meaningful observation even if many individual genes disagree due to the various sources of incongruence.

  13. Bayesian analysis of complex interacting mutations in HIV drug resistance and cross-resistance.

    PubMed

    Kozyryev, Ivan; Zhang, Jing

    2015-01-01

    A successful treatment of AIDS world-wide is severely hindered by the HIV virus' drug resistance capability resulting from complicated mutation patterns of viral proteins. Such a system of mutations enables the virus to survive and reproduce despite the presence of various antiretroviral drugs by disrupting their binding capability. Although these interacting mutation patterns are extremely difficult to efficiently uncover and interpret, they contribute valuable information to personalized therapeutic regimen design. The use of Bayesian statistical modeling provides an unprecedented opportunity in the field of anti-HIV therapy to understand detailed interaction structures of drug resistant mutations. Multiple Bayesian models equipped with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have been recently proposed in this field (Zhang et al. in PNAS 107:1321, 2010 [1]; Zhang et al. in J Proteome Sci Comput Biol 1:2, 2012 [2]; Svicher et al. in Antiviral Res 93(1):86-93, 2012 [3]; Svicher et al. in Antiviral Therapy 16(7):1035-1045, 2011 [4]; Svicher et al. in Antiviral Ther 16(4):A14-A14, 2011 [5]; Svicher et al. in Antiviral Ther 16(4):A85-A85, 2011 [6]; Alteri et al. in Signature mutations in V3 and bridging sheet domain of HIV-1 gp120 HIV-1 are specifically associated with dual tropism and modulate the interaction with CCR5 N-Terminus, 2011 [7]). Probabilistically modeling mutations in the HIV-1 protease or reverse transcriptase (RT) isolated from drug-treated patients provides a powerful statistical procedure that first detects mutation combinations associated with single or multiple-drug resistance, and then infers detailed dependence structures among the interacting mutations in viral proteins (Zhang et al. in PNAS 107:1321, 2010 [1]; Zhang et al. in J Proteome Sci Comput Biol 1:2, 2012 [2]). Combined with molecular dynamics simulations and free energy calculations, Bayesian analysis predictions help to uncover genetic and structural mechanisms in the HIV treatment

  14. [Topological Conflicts in Phylogenetic Analysis of Different Regions of the Sable (Martes zibellina L.) Mitochondrial Genome].

    PubMed

    Malyarchuk, B A; Derenko, M V; Denisova, G A; Litvinov, A N

    2015-08-01

    Phylogenetic analysis of different regions of the mitochondrial genome of the sable showed the presence of several topologies of phylogenetic trees, but the most statistically significant topology is A-BC, which was obtained as a result of the analysis of the mitochondrial genome as a whole, as well as of the individual CO1, ND4, and ND5 genes. Analysis of the intergroup divergence of the mtDNA haplotypes (Dxy) indicated that the maximum Dxy values between A and BC groups were accompanied by minimum differences between B and C groups only for six genes showing the A-BC topology (12S rRNA; CO1, CO2, ND4, ND5, and CYTB). It is assumed that the topological conflicts observed in the analysis of individual sable mtDNA genes are associated with the uneven distribution of mutations along the mitochondrial genome and the mitochondrial tree. This may be due to random causes, as well as the nonuniform effect of selection. PMID:26601491

  15. Phylogenetic analysis of the Australian rosella parrots (Platycercus) reveals discordance among molecules and plumage.

    PubMed

    Shipham, Ashlee; Schmidt, Daniel J; Joseph, Leo; Hughes, Jane M

    2015-10-01

    Relationships and species limits among the colourful Australian parrots known as rosellas (Platycercus) are contentious because of poorly understood patterns of parapatry, sympatry and hybridization as well as complex patterns of geographical replacement of phenotypic forms. Two subgenera are, however, conventionally recognised: Platycercus comprises the blue-cheeked crimson rosella complex (Crimson Rosella P. elegans and Green Rosella P. caledonicus), and Violania contains the remaining four currently recognised species (Pale-headed Rosella P. adscitus, Eastern Rosella P. eximius, Northern Rosella P. venustus, and Western Rosella P. icterotis). We used phylogenetic analysis of ten loci (one mitochondrial, eight autosomal and one z-linked) and several individuals per nominal species primarily to examine relationships within the subgenera, especially the relationships and species limits within Violania. Of these, P. adscitus and P. eximius have long been considered sister species or conspecific due to a morphology-based hybrid zone and an early phylogenetic analysis of mitochondrial DNA restriction fragment length polymorphisms. The multilocus phylogenetic analysis presented here supports an alternative hypothesis aligning P. adscitus and P. venustus as sister species. Using divergence rates published in other avian studies, we estimated the divergence between P. venustus and P. adscitus at 0.0148-0.6124MYA and that between the P. adscitus/P. venustus ancestor and P. eximius earlier at 0.1617-1.0816MYA, both within the Pleistocene. Discordant topologies among gene and species trees are discussed and proposed to be the result of historical gene flow and/or incomplete lineage sorting (ILS). In particular, we suggest that discordance between mitochondrial and nuclear data may be the result of asymmetrical mitochondrial introgression from P. adscitus into P. eximius. The biogeographical implications of our findings are discussed relative to similarly distributed groups

  16. Analysis of genetic diversity and phylogenetic relationship of red deer subspecies in XinJiang, China.

    PubMed

    Jia, Bin; Li, Ren-Yan; Zhao, Zong-Sheng; Yan, Gen-Qiang; Xi, Ji-Feng; Blair, Hugh T; Li, Da-Quan; Zhang, Jian-Xin; Zhao, Xi-Tang

    2011-08-01

    Polymorphisms for seven microsatellite loci in three red deer subspecies (9 populations) found in XinJiang were detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), 12% nondenaturation polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis and the Sanguinetti silver staining method. Numbers of alleles, average effective numbers of alleles (E) and the average rate of homozygosity, allelic frequencies of seven microsatellite loci, polymorphism information content (PIC), mean heterozygosity (H) and genetic distances among the populations were calculated for each population. Dendrograms were constructed based on genetic distances by the neighbor-joining method (NJ), utilizing molecular evolutionary genetics analysis software PHYLIP (3.6). The phylogenetic tree was constructed based on allelic frequencies using maximum likelihood (ML); the bootstrap value was estimated by bootstrap test in the tree. Lastly, phylogenesis was analyzed. The results showed that four of the seven microsatellite loci were highly polymorphic, but BMS2508 and Celjp0023 showed no polymorphism and BM5004 was a neutral polymorphism. It is our conclusion that the four microsatellite loci are effective DNA markers for the analysis of genetic diversity and phylogenetic relationships among the three red deer subspecies. The mean PIC, H and E-values across the microsatellite loci were 0.5393, 0.5736 and 2.64, which showed that these microsatellite loci are effective DNA markers for the genetic analysis of red deer. C.e. songaricus populations from Regiment 104, 151 and Hami are clustered together. C.e. yarkandensis populations from Regiment 35, Xaya and Alaer are clustered together. These two clusters also cluster together. Lastly, C.e. sibiricus populations from Burqin, Regiment 188 and the first two clusters were clustered together. The phylogenetic relationship among different red deer populations is consistent with the known origin, history of breeding and geographic distributions of populations. PMID:21794008

  17. Nibea coibor growth hormone gene: its phylogenetic significance, microsatellite variation and expression analysis.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Dianchang; Shao, Yanqing; Jiang, Shigui; Li, Jianzhu; Xu, Xinping

    2009-09-15

    The growth hormone (GH) gene has been characterized for a number of fishes and used to establish phylogenetic relationships and as a candidate gene for studies of genetic variation in connection with growth traits. In this study, we report the genomic structure of Nibea coibor GH (designated as ncGH) including its 5'-flanking region, being cloned by homology-cloning and chromosome walking methods. The ncGH gene spans approximately 3.0 kb and consists of six exons and five introns, as found for all cloned teleost GH genes with the exception of carps and catfish. The 5'-flanking region contains consensus sequences for a TATA box, a CRE, a pit-1alpha, a TRE, two HNF-3, a ERE and a GRE. Five microsatellites are identified in the ncGH gene and three of them are polymorphic marker. The open reading frame (ORF) of ncGH is 615 bp in length encoding a polypeptide of 204 amino acids with an estimated molecular mass of 23.04 kDa and theoretical isoelectric point of 7.79. The precursor of ncGH consists of a 17 amino-acid signal peptide and a 187 amino-acid mature peptide. The four Cys residues are located at conserved positions (Cys(69), Cys(177), Cys(194) and Cys(202)), and One possible site for N-glycosylation (Asn-X-Ser/Thr motif) is present at Asn(201). The coding region sequence of ncGH is used to align with the sequences of 18 other species from Percoidei and one species from Anabantoidei using Clustal X. A matrix of 612 bp was used to construct the phylogenetic trees using neighbor-joining and maximum parsimony methods. The phylogenetic trees by two methods are identical in most of the clades with high bootstrap support. Every family all forms independent monophyly on the phylogenetic trees, in the family, the different species also forms the monophyly according to the different genera. The results are also identical to those from morphological data, and demonstrated that the GH gene is very suitable for phylogenetic relationship analysis of Percoidei. To validate the

  18. Tropomyosin is a nice marker gene for phylogenetic analysis of molluscs.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xiaotong; Li, Li; Xu, Fei; Zhang, Guofan

    2011-10-01

    Molluscs are an extraordinarily diverse group of animals and to discriminate them based on one molecular marker/gene is very difficult because of the too fast or slow rate of nucleotide substitution. In the study, the tropomyosin cds (coding sequences) of 43 animal species were analyzed, the results of which suggested that the tropomyosin gene was a nice marker gene to phylogenetic analysis of molluscs, even for all the studied animals. In addition, InDels (insertions and deletions) in tropomyosin cds of turbo cornutus were also studied and one segment repeat, which probably happened recently and was of functional importance, was found.

  19. Phylogenetic analysis of parasitic trematodes of the genus Euclinostomum found in Trichopsis and Betta fish.

    PubMed

    Senapin, S; Phiwsaiya, K; Laosinchai, P; Kowasupat, C; Ruenwongsa, P; Panijpan, B

    2014-06-01

    Many species of fish in the world are infected with digenean trematodes belonging to the genera Clinostomum and Euclinostomum. In this study, metacercariae, identified as Euclinostomum sp. on the basis of morphological characteristics and molecular data, were taken from 3 osphronemid fish- Trichopsis vittata , Trichopsis schalleri, and Betta imbellis, in Thailand. Phylogenetic analysis based on a mitochondrial gene (cytochrome c oxidase subunit I) and 2 nuclear genes (18S rDNA and ITS-internal transcribed spacer) of these Euclinostomum parasites indicated a clear distinction from those belonging to the Clinostomum genus. These are the first records of partial mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequences of an Euclinostomum sp.

  20. Phylogenetic analysis of Newcastle disease viruses isolated from commercial poultry in Mozambique (2011-2016).

    PubMed

    Mapaco, Lourenço P; Monjane, Iolanda V A; Nhamusso, Antonieta E; Viljoen, Gerrit J; Dundon, William G; Achá, Sara J

    2016-10-01

    The complete sequence of the fusion (F) protein gene from 11 Newcastle disease viruses (NDVs) isolated from commercial poultry in Mozambique between 2011 and 2016 has been generated. The F gene cleavage site motif for all 11 isolates was (112)RRRKRF(117) indicating that the viruses are virulent. A phylogenetic analysis using the full F gene sequence revealed that the viruses clustered within genotype VIIh and showed a higher similarity to NDVs from South Africa, China and Southeast Asia than to viruses previously described in Mozambique in 1994, 1995 and 2005. The identification of these new NDVs has important implications for Newcastle disease management and control in Mozambique.

  1. Phylogenetic analysis of Newcastle disease viruses isolated from commercial poultry in Mozambique (2011-2016).

    PubMed

    Mapaco, Lourenço P; Monjane, Iolanda V A; Nhamusso, Antonieta E; Viljoen, Gerrit J; Dundon, William G; Achá, Sara J

    2016-10-01

    The complete sequence of the fusion (F) protein gene from 11 Newcastle disease viruses (NDVs) isolated from commercial poultry in Mozambique between 2011 and 2016 has been generated. The F gene cleavage site motif for all 11 isolates was (112)RRRKRF(117) indicating that the viruses are virulent. A phylogenetic analysis using the full F gene sequence revealed that the viruses clustered within genotype VIIh and showed a higher similarity to NDVs from South Africa, China and Southeast Asia than to viruses previously described in Mozambique in 1994, 1995 and 2005. The identification of these new NDVs has important implications for Newcastle disease management and control in Mozambique. PMID:27277578

  2. Phylogenetic analysis of parasitic trematodes of the genus Euclinostomum found in Trichopsis and Betta fish.

    PubMed

    Senapin, S; Phiwsaiya, K; Laosinchai, P; Kowasupat, C; Ruenwongsa, P; Panijpan, B

    2014-06-01

    Many species of fish in the world are infected with digenean trematodes belonging to the genera Clinostomum and Euclinostomum. In this study, metacercariae, identified as Euclinostomum sp. on the basis of morphological characteristics and molecular data, were taken from 3 osphronemid fish- Trichopsis vittata , Trichopsis schalleri, and Betta imbellis, in Thailand. Phylogenetic analysis based on a mitochondrial gene (cytochrome c oxidase subunit I) and 2 nuclear genes (18S rDNA and ITS-internal transcribed spacer) of these Euclinostomum parasites indicated a clear distinction from those belonging to the Clinostomum genus. These are the first records of partial mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequences of an Euclinostomum sp. PMID:24490744

  3. Intuitive logic revisited: new data and a Bayesian mixed model meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Singmann, Henrik; Klauer, Karl Christoph; Kellen, David

    2014-01-01

    Recent research on syllogistic reasoning suggests that the logical status (valid vs. invalid) of even difficult syllogisms can be intuitively detected via differences in conceptual fluency between logically valid and invalid syllogisms when participants are asked to rate how much they like a conclusion following from a syllogism (Morsanyi & Handley, 2012). These claims of an intuitive logic are at odds with most theories on syllogistic reasoning which posit that detecting the logical status of difficult syllogisms requires effortful and deliberate cognitive processes. We present new data replicating the effects reported by Morsanyi and Handley, but show that this effect is eliminated when controlling for a possible confound in terms of conclusion content. Additionally, we reanalyze three studies (n = 287) without this confound with a Bayesian mixed model meta-analysis (i.e., controlling for participant and item effects) which provides evidence for the null-hypothesis and against Morsanyi and Handley's claim.

  4. Exposure models for the prior distribution in bayesian decision analysis for occupational hygiene decision making.

    PubMed

    Lee, Eun Gyung; Kim, Seung Won; Feigley, Charles E; Harper, Martin

    2013-01-01

    This study introduces two semi-quantitative methods, Structured Subjective Assessment (SSA) and Control of Substances Hazardous to Health (COSHH) Essentials, in conjunction with two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations for determining prior probabilities. Prior distribution using expert judgment was included for comparison. Practical applications of the proposed methods were demonstrated using personal exposure measurements of isoamyl acetate in an electronics manufacturing facility and of isopropanol in a printing shop. Applicability of these methods in real workplaces was discussed based on the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Although these methods could not be completely independent of expert judgments, this study demonstrated a methodological improvement in the estimation of the prior distribution for the Bayesian decision analysis tool. The proposed methods provide a logical basis for the decision process by considering determinants of worker exposure. PMID:23252451

  5. Bayesian semiparametric power spectral density estimation with applications in gravitational wave data analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edwards, Matthew C.; Meyer, Renate; Christensen, Nelson

    2015-09-01

    The standard noise model in gravitational wave (GW) data analysis assumes detector noise is stationary and Gaussian distributed, with a known power spectral density (PSD) that is usually estimated using clean off-source data. Real GW data often depart from these assumptions, and misspecified parametric models of the PSD could result in misleading inferences. We propose a Bayesian semiparametric approach to improve this. We use a nonparametric Bernstein polynomial prior on the PSD, with weights attained via a Dirichlet process distribution, and update this using the Whittle likelihood. Posterior samples are obtained using a blocked Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampler. We simultaneously estimate the reconstruction parameters of a rotating core collapse supernova GW burst that has been embedded in simulated Advanced LIGO noise. We also discuss an approach to deal with nonstationary data by breaking longer data streams into smaller and locally stationary components.

  6. A Bayesian approach to probabilistic sensitivity analysis in structured benefit-risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Waddingham, Ed; Mt-Isa, Shahrul; Nixon, Richard; Ashby, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    Quantitative decision models such as multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) can be used in benefit-risk assessment to formalize trade-offs between benefits and risks, providing transparency to the assessment process. There is however no well-established method for propagating uncertainty of treatment effects data through such models to provide a sense of the variability of the benefit-risk balance. Here, we present a Bayesian statistical method that directly models the outcomes observed in randomized placebo-controlled trials and uses this to infer indirect comparisons between competing active treatments. The resulting treatment effects estimates are suitable for use within the MCDA setting, and it is possible to derive the distribution of the overall benefit-risk balance through Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The method is illustrated using a case study of natalizumab for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

  7. Bayesian network meta-analysis for unordered categorical outcomes with incomplete data.

    PubMed

    Schmid, Christopher H; Trikalinos, Thomas A; Olkin, Ingram

    2014-06-01

    We develop a Bayesian multinomial network meta-analysis model for unordered (nominal) categorical outcomes that allows for partially observed data in which exact event counts may not be known for each category. This model properly accounts for correlations of counts in mutually exclusive categories and enables proper comparison and ranking of treatment effects across multiple treatments and multiple outcome categories. We apply the model to analyze 17 trials, each of which compares two of three treatments (high and low dose statins and standard care/control) for three outcomes for which data are complete: cardiovascular death, non-cardiovascular death and no death. We also analyze the cardiovascular death category divided into the three subcategories (coronary heart disease, stroke and other cardiovascular diseases) that are not completely observed. The multinomial and network representations show that high