Phylogenetic analysis of honey bee behavioral evolution.

PubMed

Raffiudin, Rika; Crozier, Ross H

2007-05-01

DNA sequences from three mitochondrial (rrnL, cox2, nad2) and one nuclear gene (itpr) from all 9 known honey bee species (Apis), a 10th possible species, Apis dorsata binghami, and three outgroup species (Bombus terrestris, Melipona bicolor and Trigona fimbriata) were used to infer Apis phylogenetic relationships using Bayesian analysis. The dwarf honey bees were confirmed as basal, and the giant and cavity-nesting species to be monophyletic. All nodes were strongly supported except that grouping Apis cerana with A. nigrocincta. Two thousand post-burnin trees from the phylogenetic analysis were used in a Bayesian comparative analysis to explore the evolution of dance type, nest structure, comb structure and dance sound within Apis. The ancestral honey bee species was inferred with high support to have nested in the open, and to have more likely than not had a silent vertical waggle dance and a single comb. The common ancestor of the giant and cavity-dwelling bees is strongly inferred to have had a buzzing vertical directional dance. All pairwise combinations of characters showed strong association, but the multiple comparisons problem reduces the ability to infer associations between states between characters. Nevertheless, a buzzing dance is significantly associated with cavity-nesting, several vertical combs, and dancing vertically, a horizontal dance is significantly associated with a nest with a single comb wrapped around the support, and open nesting with a single pendant comb and a silent waggle dance.

Long-Branch Attraction Bias and Inconsistency in Bayesian Phylogenetics

PubMed Central

Kolaczkowski, Bryan; Thornton, Joseph W.

2009-01-01

Bayesian inference (BI) of phylogenetic relationships uses the same probabilistic models of evolution as its precursor maximum likelihood (ML), so BI has generally been assumed to share ML's desirable statistical properties, such as largely unbiased inference of topology given an accurate model and increasingly reliable inferences as the amount of data increases. Here we show that BI, unlike ML, is biased in favor of topologies that group long branches together, even when the true model and prior distributions of evolutionary parameters over a group of phylogenies are known. Using experimental simulation studies and numerical and mathematical analyses, we show that this bias becomes more severe as more data are analyzed, causing BI to infer an incorrect tree as the maximum a posteriori phylogeny with asymptotically high support as sequence length approaches infinity. BI's long branch attraction bias is relatively weak when the true model is simple but becomes pronounced when sequence sites evolve heterogeneously, even when this complexity is incorporated in the model. This bias—which is apparent under both controlled simulation conditions and in analyses of empirical sequence data—also makes BI less efficient and less robust to the use of an incorrect evolutionary model than ML. Surprisingly, BI's bias is caused by one of the method's stated advantages—that it incorporates uncertainty about branch lengths by integrating over a distribution of possible values instead of estimating them from the data, as ML does. Our findings suggest that trees inferred using BI should be interpreted with caution and that ML may be a more reliable framework for modern phylogenetic analysis. PMID:20011052

Long-branch attraction bias and inconsistency in Bayesian phylogenetics.

PubMed

Kolaczkowski, Bryan; Thornton, Joseph W

2009-12-09

Bayesian inference (BI) of phylogenetic relationships uses the same probabilistic models of evolution as its precursor maximum likelihood (ML), so BI has generally been assumed to share ML's desirable statistical properties, such as largely unbiased inference of topology given an accurate model and increasingly reliable inferences as the amount of data increases. Here we show that BI, unlike ML, is biased in favor of topologies that group long branches together, even when the true model and prior distributions of evolutionary parameters over a group of phylogenies are known. Using experimental simulation studies and numerical and mathematical analyses, we show that this bias becomes more severe as more data are analyzed, causing BI to infer an incorrect tree as the maximum a posteriori phylogeny with asymptotically high support as sequence length approaches infinity. BI's long branch attraction bias is relatively weak when the true model is simple but becomes pronounced when sequence sites evolve heterogeneously, even when this complexity is incorporated in the model. This bias--which is apparent under both controlled simulation conditions and in analyses of empirical sequence data--also makes BI less efficient and less robust to the use of an incorrect evolutionary model than ML. Surprisingly, BI's bias is caused by one of the method's stated advantages--that it incorporates uncertainty about branch lengths by integrating over a distribution of possible values instead of estimating them from the data, as ML does. Our findings suggest that trees inferred using BI should be interpreted with caution and that ML may be a more reliable framework for modern phylogenetic analysis.

The evolutionary relationships and age of Homo naledi: An assessment using dated Bayesian phylogenetic methods.

PubMed

Dembo, Mana; Radovčić, Davorka; Garvin, Heather M; Laird, Myra F; Schroeder, Lauren; Scott, Jill E; Brophy, Juliet; Ackermann, Rebecca R; Musiba, Chares M; de Ruiter, Darryl J; Mooers, Arne Ø; Collard, Mark

2016-08-01

Homo naledi is a recently discovered species of fossil hominin from South Africa. A considerable amount is already known about H. naledi but some important questions remain unanswered. Here we report a study that addressed two of them: "Where does H. naledi fit in the hominin evolutionary tree?" and "How old is it?" We used a large supermatrix of craniodental characters for both early and late hominin species and Bayesian phylogenetic techniques to carry out three analyses. First, we performed a dated Bayesian analysis to generate estimates of the evolutionary relationships of fossil hominins including H. naledi. Then we employed Bayes factor tests to compare the strength of support for hypotheses about the relationships of H. naledi suggested by the best-estimate trees. Lastly, we carried out a resampling analysis to assess the accuracy of the age estimate for H. naledi yielded by the dated Bayesian analysis. The analyses strongly supported the hypothesis that H. naledi forms a clade with the other Homo species and Australopithecus sediba. The analyses were more ambiguous regarding the position of H. naledi within the (Homo, Au. sediba) clade. A number of hypotheses were rejected, but several others were not. Based on the available craniodental data, Homo antecessor, Asian Homo erectus, Homo habilis, Homo floresiensis, Homo sapiens, and Au. sediba could all be the sister taxon of H. naledi. According to the dated Bayesian analysis, the most likely age for H. naledi is 912 ka. This age estimate was supported by the resampling analysis. Our findings have a number of implications. Most notably, they support the assignment of the new specimens to Homo, cast doubt on the claim that H. naledi is simply a variant of H. erectus, and suggest H. naledi is younger than has been previously proposed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian phylogenetic study of the Dravidian language family

PubMed Central

Kolipakam, Vishnupriya

2018-01-01

The Dravidian language family consists of about 80 varieties (Hammarström H. 2016 Glottolog 2.7) spoken by 220 million people across southern and central India and surrounding countries (Steever SB. 1998 In The Dravidian languages (ed. SB Steever), pp. 1–39: 1). Neither the geographical origin of the Dravidian language homeland nor its exact dispersal through time are known. The history of these languages is crucial for understanding prehistory in Eurasia, because despite their current restricted range, these languages played a significant role in influencing other language groups including Indo-Aryan (Indo-European) and Munda (Austroasiatic) speakers. Here, we report the results of a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of cognate-coded lexical data, elicited first hand from native speakers, to investigate the subgrouping of the Dravidian language family, and provide dates for the major points of diversification. Our results indicate that the Dravidian language family is approximately 4500 years old, a finding that corresponds well with earlier linguistic and archaeological studies. The main branches of the Dravidian language family (North, Central, South I, South II) are recovered, although the placement of languages within these main branches diverges from previous classifications. We find considerable uncertainty with regard to the relationships between the main branches. PMID:29657761

Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.

PubMed

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.

Bayesian Mediation Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

2009-01-01

In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

Data set for phylogenetic tree and RAMPAGE Ramachandran plot analysis of SODs in Gossypium raimondii and G. arboreum.

PubMed

Wang, Wei; Xia, Minxuan; Chen, Jie; Deng, Fenni; Yuan, Rui; Zhang, Xiaopei; Shen, Fafu

2016-12-01

The data presented in this paper is supporting the research article "Genome-Wide Analysis of Superoxide Dismutase Gene Family in Gossypium raimondii and G. arboreum" [1]. In this data article, we present phylogenetic tree showing dichotomy with two different clusters of SODs inferred by the Bayesian method of MrBayes (version 3.2.4), "Bayesian phylogenetic inference under mixed models" [2], Ramachandran plots of G. raimondii and G. arboreum SODs, the protein sequence used to generate 3D sructure of proteins and the template accession via SWISS-MODEL server, "SWISS-MODEL: modelling protein tertiary and quaternary structure using evolutionary information." [3] and motif sequences of SODs identified by InterProScan (version 4.8) with the Pfam database, "Pfam: the protein families database" [4].

Inferring Phylogenetic Networks Using PhyloNet.

PubMed

Wen, Dingqiao; Yu, Yun; Zhu, Jiafan; Nakhleh, Luay

2018-07-01

PhyloNet was released in 2008 as a software package for representing and analyzing phylogenetic networks. At the time of its release, the main functionalities in PhyloNet consisted of measures for comparing network topologies and a single heuristic for reconciling gene trees with a species tree. Since then, PhyloNet has grown significantly. The software package now includes a wide array of methods for inferring phylogenetic networks from data sets of unlinked loci while accounting for both reticulation (e.g., hybridization) and incomplete lineage sorting. In particular, PhyloNet now allows for maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference of phylogenetic networks from gene tree estimates. Furthermore, Bayesian inference directly from sequence data (sequence alignments or biallelic markers) is implemented. Maximum parsimony is based on an extension of the "minimizing deep coalescences" criterion to phylogenetic networks, whereas maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference are based on the multispecies network coalescent. All methods allow for multiple individuals per species. As computing the likelihood of a phylogenetic network is computationally hard, PhyloNet allows for evaluation and inference of networks using a pseudolikelihood measure. PhyloNet summarizes the results of the various analyzes and generates phylogenetic networks in the extended Newick format that is readily viewable by existing visualization software.

treespace: Statistical exploration of landscapes of phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Jombart, Thibaut; Kendall, Michelle; Almagro-Garcia, Jacob; Colijn, Caroline

2017-11-01

The increasing availability of large genomic data sets as well as the advent of Bayesian phylogenetics facilitates the investigation of phylogenetic incongruence, which can result in the impossibility of representing phylogenetic relationships using a single tree. While sometimes considered as a nuisance, phylogenetic incongruence can also reflect meaningful biological processes as well as relevant statistical uncertainty, both of which can yield valuable insights in evolutionary studies. We introduce a new tool for investigating phylogenetic incongruence through the exploration of phylogenetic tree landscapes. Our approach, implemented in the R package treespace, combines tree metrics and multivariate analysis to provide low-dimensional representations of the topological variability in a set of trees, which can be used for identifying clusters of similar trees and group-specific consensus phylogenies. treespace also provides a user-friendly web interface for interactive data analysis and is integrated alongside existing standards for phylogenetics. It fills a gap in the current phylogenetics toolbox in R and will facilitate the investigation of phylogenetic results. © 2017 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Resources Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Model selection and model averaging in phylogenetics: advantages of akaike information criterion and bayesian approaches over likelihood ratio tests.

PubMed

Posada, David; Buckley, Thomas R

2004-10-01

Model selection is a topic of special relevance in molecular phylogenetics that affects many, if not all, stages of phylogenetic inference. Here we discuss some fundamental concepts and techniques of model selection in the context of phylogenetics. We start by reviewing different aspects of the selection of substitution models in phylogenetics from a theoretical, philosophical and practical point of view, and summarize this comparison in table format. We argue that the most commonly implemented model selection approach, the hierarchical likelihood ratio test, is not the optimal strategy for model selection in phylogenetics, and that approaches like the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian methods offer important advantages. In particular, the latter two methods are able to simultaneously compare multiple nested or nonnested models, assess model selection uncertainty, and allow for the estimation of phylogenies and model parameters using all available models (model-averaged inference or multimodel inference). We also describe how the relative importance of the different parameters included in substitution models can be depicted. To illustrate some of these points, we have applied AIC-based model averaging to 37 mitochondrial DNA sequences from the subgenus Ohomopterus(genus Carabus) ground beetles described by Sota and Vogler (2001).

Phylogenetic relationships of Malaysia's long-tailed macaques, Macaca fascicularis, based on cytochrome b sequences.

PubMed

Abdul-Latiff, Muhammad Abu Bakar; Ruslin, Farhani; Fui, Vun Vui; Abu, Mohd-Hashim; Rovie-Ryan, Jeffrine Japning; Abdul-Patah, Pazil; Lakim, Maklarin; Roos, Christian; Yaakop, Salmah; Md-Zain, Badrul Munir

2014-01-01

Phylogenetic relationships among Malaysia's long-tailed macaques have yet to be established, despite abundant genetic studies of the species worldwide. The aims of this study are to examine the phylogenetic relationships of Macaca fascicularis in Malaysia and to test its classification as a morphological subspecies. A total of 25 genetic samples of M. fascicularis yielding 383 bp of Cytochrome b (Cyt b) sequences were used in phylogenetic analysis along with one sample each of M. nemestrina and M. arctoides used as outgroups. Sequence character analysis reveals that Cyt b locus is a highly conserved region with only 23% parsimony informative character detected among ingroups. Further analysis indicates a clear separation between populations originating from different regions; the Malay Peninsula versus Borneo Insular, the East Coast versus West Coast of the Malay Peninsula, and the island versus mainland Malay Peninsula populations. Phylogenetic trees (NJ, MP and Bayesian) portray a consistent clustering paradigm as Borneo's population was distinguished from Peninsula's population (99% and 100% bootstrap value in NJ and MP respectively and 1.00 posterior probability in Bayesian trees). The East coast population was separated from other Peninsula populations (64% in NJ, 66% in MP and 0.53 posterior probability in Bayesian). West coast populations were divided into 2 clades: the North-South (47%/54% in NJ, 26/26% in MP and 1.00/0.80 posterior probability in Bayesian) and Island-Mainland (93% in NJ, 90% in MP and 1.00 posterior probability in Bayesian). The results confirm the previous morphological assignment of 2 subspecies, M. f. fascicularis and M. f. argentimembris, in the Malay Peninsula. These populations should be treated as separate genetic entities in order to conserve the genetic diversity of Malaysia's M. fascicularis. These findings are crucial in aiding the conservation management and translocation process of M. fascicularis populations in Malaysia.

Is probabilistic bias analysis approximately Bayesian?

PubMed Central

MacLehose, Richard F.; Gustafson, Paul

2011-01-01

Case-control studies are particularly susceptible to differential exposure misclassification when exposure status is determined following incident case status. Probabilistic bias analysis methods have been developed as ways to adjust standard effect estimates based on the sensitivity and specificity of exposure misclassification. The iterative sampling method advocated in probabilistic bias analysis bears a distinct resemblance to a Bayesian adjustment; however, it is not identical. Furthermore, without a formal theoretical framework (Bayesian or frequentist), the results of a probabilistic bias analysis remain somewhat difficult to interpret. We describe, both theoretically and empirically, the extent to which probabilistic bias analysis can be viewed as approximately Bayesian. While the differences between probabilistic bias analysis and Bayesian approaches to misclassification can be substantial, these situations often involve unrealistic prior specifications and are relatively easy to detect. Outside of these special cases, probabilistic bias analysis and Bayesian approaches to exposure misclassification in case-control studies appear to perform equally well. PMID:22157311

Improving phylogenetic analyses by incorporating additional information from genetic sequence databases.

PubMed

Liang, Li-Jung; Weiss, Robert E; Redelings, Benjamin; Suchard, Marc A

2009-10-01

Statistical analyses of phylogenetic data culminate in uncertain estimates of underlying model parameters. Lack of additional data hinders the ability to reduce this uncertainty, as the original phylogenetic dataset is often complete, containing the entire gene or genome information available for the given set of taxa. Informative priors in a Bayesian analysis can reduce posterior uncertainty; however, publicly available phylogenetic software specifies vague priors for model parameters by default. We build objective and informative priors using hierarchical random effect models that combine additional datasets whose parameters are not of direct interest but are similar to the analysis of interest. We propose principled statistical methods that permit more precise parameter estimates in phylogenetic analyses by creating informative priors for parameters of interest. Using additional sequence datasets from our lab or public databases, we construct a fully Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical model to combine datasets. A dynamic iteratively reweighted Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm conveniently recycles posterior samples from the individual analyses. We demonstrate the value of our approach by examining the insertion-deletion (indel) process in the enolase gene across the Tree of Life using the phylogenetic software BALI-PHY; we incorporate prior information about indels from 82 curated alignments downloaded from the BAliBASE database.

Phylogenetic relationships of Malaysia’s long-tailed macaques, Macaca fascicularis, based on cytochrome b sequences

PubMed Central

Abdul-Latiff, Muhammad Abu Bakar; Ruslin, Farhani; Fui, Vun Vui; Abu, Mohd-Hashim; Rovie-Ryan, Jeffrine Japning; Abdul-Patah, Pazil; Lakim, Maklarin; Roos, Christian; Yaakop, Salmah; Md-Zain, Badrul Munir

2014-01-01

Abstract Phylogenetic relationships among Malaysia’s long-tailed macaques have yet to be established, despite abundant genetic studies of the species worldwide. The aims of this study are to examine the phylogenetic relationships of Macaca fascicularis in Malaysia and to test its classification as a morphological subspecies. A total of 25 genetic samples of M. fascicularis yielding 383 bp of Cytochrome b (Cyt b) sequences were used in phylogenetic analysis along with one sample each of M. nemestrina and M. arctoides used as outgroups. Sequence character analysis reveals that Cyt b locus is a highly conserved region with only 23% parsimony informative character detected among ingroups. Further analysis indicates a clear separation between populations originating from different regions; the Malay Peninsula versus Borneo Insular, the East Coast versus West Coast of the Malay Peninsula, and the island versus mainland Malay Peninsula populations. Phylogenetic trees (NJ, MP and Bayesian) portray a consistent clustering paradigm as Borneo’s population was distinguished from Peninsula’s population (99% and 100% bootstrap value in NJ and MP respectively and 1.00 posterior probability in Bayesian trees). The East coast population was separated from other Peninsula populations (64% in NJ, 66% in MP and 0.53 posterior probability in Bayesian). West coast populations were divided into 2 clades: the North-South (47%/54% in NJ, 26/26% in MP and 1.00/0.80 posterior probability in Bayesian) and Island-Mainland (93% in NJ, 90% in MP and 1.00 posterior probability in Bayesian). The results confirm the previous morphological assignment of 2 subspecies, M. f. fascicularis and M. f. argentimembris, in the Malay Peninsula. These populations should be treated as separate genetic entities in order to conserve the genetic diversity of Malaysia’s M. fascicularis. These findings are crucial in aiding the conservation management and translocation process of M. fascicularis populations

Phylogenetic Analysis of Dengue Virus in Bangkalan, Madura Island, East Java Province, Indonesia.

PubMed

Sucipto, Teguh Hari; Kotaki, Tomohiro; Mulyatno, Kris Cahyo; Churrotin, Siti; Labiqah, Amaliah; Soegijanto, Soegeng; Kameoka, Masanori

2018-01-01

Dengue virus (DENV) infection is a major health issue in tropical and subtropical areas. Indonesia is one of the biggest dengue endemic countries in the world. In the present study, the phylogenetic analysis of DENV in Bangkalan, Madura Island, Indonesia, was performed in order to obtain a clearer understanding of its dynamics in this country. A total of 359 blood samples from dengue-suspected patients were collected between 2012 and 2014. Serotyping was conducted using a multiplex Reverse Transcriptase-Polymerase Chain Reaction and a phylogenetic analysis of E gene sequences was performed using the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. 17 out of 359 blood samples (4.7%) were positive for the isolation of DENV. Serotyping and the phylogenetic analysis revealed the predominance of DENV-1 genotype I (9/17, 52.9%), followed by DENV-2 Cosmopolitan type (7/17, 41.2%) and DENV-3 genotype I (1/17, 5.9%) . DENV-4 was not isolated. The Madura Island isolates showed high nucleotide similarity to other Indonesian isolates, indicating frequent virus circulation in Indonesia. The results of the present study highlight the importance of continuous viral surveillance in dengue endemic areas in order to obtain a clearer understanding of the dynamics of DENV in Indonesia.

The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective.

PubMed

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

In the practice of data analysis, there is a conceptual distinction between hypothesis testing, on the one hand, and estimation with quantified uncertainty on the other. Among frequentists in psychology, a shift of emphasis from hypothesis testing to estimation has been dubbed "the New Statistics" (Cumming 2014). A second conceptual distinction is between frequentist methods and Bayesian methods. Our main goal in this article is to explain how Bayesian methods achieve the goals of the New Statistics better than frequentist methods. The article reviews frequentist and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and to estimation with confidence or credible intervals. The article also describes Bayesian approaches to meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials, and power analysis.

Multi-locus phylogeny of dolphins in the subfamily Lissodelphininae: character synergy improves phylogenetic resolution

PubMed Central

Harlin-Cognato, April D; Honeycutt, Rodney L

2006-01-01

Background Dolphins of the genus Lagenorhynchus are anti-tropically distributed in temperate to cool waters. Phylogenetic analyses of cytochrome b sequences have suggested that the genus is polyphyletic; however, many relationships were poorly resolved. In this study, we present a combined-analysis phylogenetic hypothesis for Lagenorhynchus and members of the subfamily Lissodelphininae, which is derived from two nuclear and two mitochondrial data sets and the addition of 34 individuals representing 9 species. In addition, we characterize with parsimony and Bayesian analyses the phylogenetic utility and interaction of characters with statistical measures, including the utility of highly consistent (non-homoplasious) characters as a conservative measure of phylogenetic robustness. We also explore the effects of removing sources of character conflict on phylogenetic resolution. Results Overall, our study provides strong support for the monophyly of the subfamily Lissodelphininae and the polyphyly of the genus Lagenorhynchus. In addition, the simultaneous parsimony analysis resolved and/or improved resolution for 12 nodes including: (1) L. albirostris, L. acutus; (2) L. obscurus and L. obliquidens; and (3) L. cruciger and L. australis. In addition, the Bayesian analysis supported the monophyly of the Cephalorhynchus, and resolved ambiguities regarding the relationship of L. australis/L. cruciger to other members of the genus Lagenorhynchus. The frequency of highly consistent characters varied among data partitions, but the rate of evolution was consistent within data partitions. Although the control region was the greatest source of character conflict, removal of this data partition impeded phylogenetic resolution. Conclusion The simultaneous analysis approach produced a more robust phylogenetic hypothesis for Lagenorhynchus than previous studies, thus supporting a phylogenetic approach employing multiple data partitions that vary in overall rate of evolution. Even in

Fundamentals and Recent Developments in Approximate Bayesian Computation

PubMed Central

Lintusaari, Jarno; Gutmann, Michael U.; Dutta, Ritabrata; Kaski, Samuel; Corander, Jukka

2017-01-01

Abstract Bayesian inference plays an important role in phylogenetics, evolutionary biology, and in many other branches of science. It provides a principled framework for dealing with uncertainty and quantifying how it changes in the light of new evidence. For many complex models and inference problems, however, only approximate quantitative answers are obtainable. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) refers to a family of algorithms for approximate inference that makes a minimal set of assumptions by only requiring that sampling from a model is possible. We explain here the fundamentals of ABC, review the classical algorithms, and highlight recent developments. [ABC; approximate Bayesian computation; Bayesian inference; likelihood-free inference; phylogenetics; simulator-based models; stochastic simulation models; tree-based models.] PMID:28175922

Specimen-level phylogenetics in paleontology using the Fossilized Birth-Death model with sampled ancestors.

PubMed

Cau, Andrea

2017-01-01

Bayesian phylogenetic methods integrating simultaneously morphological and stratigraphic information have been applied increasingly among paleontologists. Most of these studies have used Bayesian methods as an alternative to the widely-used parsimony analysis, to infer macroevolutionary patterns and relationships among species-level or higher taxa. Among recently introduced Bayesian methodologies, the Fossilized Birth-Death (FBD) model allows incorporation of hypotheses on ancestor-descendant relationships in phylogenetic analyses including fossil taxa. Here, the FBD model is used to infer the relationships among an ingroup formed exclusively by fossil individuals, i.e., dipnoan tooth plates from four localities in the Ain el Guettar Formation of Tunisia. Previous analyses of this sample compared the results of phylogenetic analysis using parsimony with stratigraphic methods, inferred a high diversity (five or more genera) in the Ain el Guettar Formation, and interpreted it as an artifact inflated by depositional factors. In the analysis performed here, the uncertainty on the chronostratigraphic relationships among the specimens was included among the prior settings. The results of the analysis confirm the referral of most of the specimens to the taxa Asiatoceratodus , Equinoxiodus, Lavocatodus and Neoceratodus , but reject those to Ceratodus and Ferganoceratodus . The resulting phylogeny constrained the evolution of the Tunisian sample exclusively in the Early Cretaceous, contrasting with the previous scenario inferred by the stratigraphically-calibrated topology resulting from parsimony analysis. The phylogenetic framework also suggests that (1) the sampled localities are laterally equivalent, (2) but three localities are restricted to the youngest part of the section; both results are in agreement with previous stratigraphic analyses of these localities. The FBD model of specimen-level units provides a novel tool for phylogenetic inference among fossils but also

BigFoot: Bayesian alignment and phylogenetic footprinting with MCMC

PubMed Central

Satija, Rahul; Novák, Ádám; Miklós, István; Lyngsø, Rune; Hein, Jotun

2009-01-01

Background We have previously combined statistical alignment and phylogenetic footprinting to detect conserved functional elements without assuming a fixed alignment. Considering a probability-weighted distribution of alignments removes sensitivity to alignment errors, properly accommodates regions of alignment uncertainty, and increases the accuracy of functional element prediction. Our method utilized standard dynamic programming hidden markov model algorithms to analyze up to four sequences. Results We present a novel approach, implemented in the software package BigFoot, for performing phylogenetic footprinting on greater numbers of sequences. We have developed a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach which samples both sequence alignments and locations of slowly evolving regions. We implement our method as an extension of the existing StatAlign software package and test it on well-annotated regions controlling the expression of the even-skipped gene in Drosophila and the α-globin gene in vertebrates. The results exhibit how adding additional sequences to the analysis has the potential to improve the accuracy of functional predictions, and demonstrate how BigFoot outperforms existing alignment-based phylogenetic footprinting techniques. Conclusion BigFoot extends a combined alignment and phylogenetic footprinting approach to analyze larger amounts of sequence data using MCMC. Our approach is robust to alignment error and uncertainty and can be applied to a variety of biological datasets. The source code and documentation are publicly available for download from PMID:19715598

BigFoot: Bayesian alignment and phylogenetic footprinting with MCMC.

PubMed

Satija, Rahul; Novák, Adám; Miklós, István; Lyngsø, Rune; Hein, Jotun

2009-08-28

We have previously combined statistical alignment and phylogenetic footprinting to detect conserved functional elements without assuming a fixed alignment. Considering a probability-weighted distribution of alignments removes sensitivity to alignment errors, properly accommodates regions of alignment uncertainty, and increases the accuracy of functional element prediction. Our method utilized standard dynamic programming hidden markov model algorithms to analyze up to four sequences. We present a novel approach, implemented in the software package BigFoot, for performing phylogenetic footprinting on greater numbers of sequences. We have developed a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach which samples both sequence alignments and locations of slowly evolving regions. We implement our method as an extension of the existing StatAlign software package and test it on well-annotated regions controlling the expression of the even-skipped gene in Drosophila and the alpha-globin gene in vertebrates. The results exhibit how adding additional sequences to the analysis has the potential to improve the accuracy of functional predictions, and demonstrate how BigFoot outperforms existing alignment-based phylogenetic footprinting techniques. BigFoot extends a combined alignment and phylogenetic footprinting approach to analyze larger amounts of sequence data using MCMC. Our approach is robust to alignment error and uncertainty and can be applied to a variety of biological datasets. The source code and documentation are publicly available for download from http://www.stats.ox.ac.uk/~satija/BigFoot/

Detecting Network Communities: An Application to Phylogenetic Analysis

PubMed Central

Andrade, Roberto F. S.; Rocha-Neto, Ivan C.; Santos, Leonardo B. L.; de Santana, Charles N.; Diniz, Marcelo V. C.; Lobão, Thierry Petit; Goés-Neto, Aristóteles; Pinho, Suani T. R.; El-Hani, Charbel N.

2011-01-01

This paper proposes a new method to identify communities in generally weighted complex networks and apply it to phylogenetic analysis. In this case, weights correspond to the similarity indexes among protein sequences, which can be used for network construction so that the network structure can be analyzed to recover phylogenetically useful information from its properties. The analyses discussed here are mainly based on the modular character of protein similarity networks, explored through the Newman-Girvan algorithm, with the help of the neighborhood matrix . The most relevant networks are found when the network topology changes abruptly revealing distinct modules related to the sets of organisms to which the proteins belong. Sound biological information can be retrieved by the computational routines used in the network approach, without using biological assumptions other than those incorporated by BLAST. Usually, all the main bacterial phyla and, in some cases, also some bacterial classes corresponded totally (100%) or to a great extent (>70%) to the modules. We checked for internal consistency in the obtained results, and we scored close to 84% of matches for community pertinence when comparisons between the results were performed. To illustrate how to use the network-based method, we employed data for enzymes involved in the chitin metabolic pathway that are present in more than 100 organisms from an original data set containing 1,695 organisms, downloaded from GenBank on May 19, 2007. A preliminary comparison between the outcomes of the network-based method and the results of methods based on Bayesian, distance, likelihood, and parsimony criteria suggests that the former is as reliable as these commonly used methods. We conclude that the network-based method can be used as a powerful tool for retrieving modularity information from weighted networks, which is useful for phylogenetic analysis. PMID:21573202

Phylogenetic inference under varying proportions of indel-induced alignment gaps

PubMed Central

Dwivedi, Bhakti; Gadagkar, Sudhindra R

2009-01-01

Background The effect of alignment gaps on phylogenetic accuracy has been the subject of numerous studies. In this study, we investigated the relationship between the total number of gapped sites and phylogenetic accuracy, when the gaps were introduced (by means of computer simulation) to reflect indel (insertion/deletion) events during the evolution of DNA sequences. The resulting (true) alignments were subjected to commonly used gap treatment and phylogenetic inference methods. Results (1) In general, there was a strong – almost deterministic – relationship between the amount of gap in the data and the level of phylogenetic accuracy when the alignments were very "gappy", (2) gaps resulting from deletions (as opposed to insertions) contributed more to the inaccuracy of phylogenetic inference, (3) the probabilistic methods (Bayesian, PhyML & "MLε, " a method implemented in DNAML in PHYLIP) performed better at most levels of gap percentage when compared to parsimony (MP) and distance (NJ) methods, with Bayesian analysis being clearly the best, (4) methods that treat gapped sites as missing data yielded less accurate trees when compared to those that attribute phylogenetic signal to the gapped sites (by coding them as binary character data – presence/absence, or as in the MLε method), and (5) in general, the accuracy of phylogenetic inference depended upon the amount of available data when the gaps resulted from mainly deletion events, and the amount of missing data when insertion events were equally likely to have caused the alignment gaps. Conclusion When gaps in an alignment are a consequence of indel events in the evolution of the sequences, the accuracy of phylogenetic analysis is likely to improve if: (1) alignment gaps are categorized as arising from insertion events or deletion events and then treated separately in the analysis, (2) the evolutionary signal provided by indels is harnessed in the phylogenetic analysis, and (3) methods that utilize the

Bayesian phylogenetic analysis supports an agricultural origin of Japonic languages

PubMed Central

Lee, Sean; Hasegawa, Toshikazu

2011-01-01

Languages, like genes, evolve by a process of descent with modification. This striking similarity between biological and linguistic evolution allows us to apply phylogenetic methods to explore how languages, as well as the people who speak them, are related to one another through evolutionary history. Language phylogenies constructed with lexical data have so far revealed population expansions of Austronesian, Indo-European and Bantu speakers. However, how robustly a phylogenetic approach can chart the history of language evolution and what language phylogenies reveal about human prehistory must be investigated more thoroughly on a global scale. Here we report a phylogeny of 59 Japonic languages and dialects. We used this phylogeny to estimate time depth of its root and compared it with the time suggested by an agricultural expansion scenario for Japanese origin. In agreement with the scenario, our results indicate that Japonic languages descended from a common ancestor approximately 2182 years ago. Together with archaeological and biological evidence, our results suggest that the first farmers of Japan had a profound impact on the origins of both people and languages. On a broader level, our results are consistent with a theory that agricultural expansion is the principal factor for shaping global linguistic diversity. PMID:21543358

Assessment of phylogenetic sensitivity for reconstructing HIV-1 epidemiological relationships.

PubMed

Beloukas, Apostolos; Magiorkinis, Emmanouil; Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Zavitsanou, Asimina; Karamitros, Timokratis; Hatzakis, Angelos; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

2012-06-01

Phylogenetic analysis has been extensively used as a tool for the reconstruction of epidemiological relations for research or for forensic purposes. It was our objective to assess the sensitivity of different phylogenetic methods and various phylogenetic programs to reconstruct epidemiological links among HIV-1 infected patients that is the probability to reveal a true transmission relationship. Multiple datasets (90) were prepared consisting of HIV-1 sequences in protease (PR) and partial reverse transcriptase (RT) sampled from patients with documented epidemiological relationship (target population), and from unrelated individuals (control population) belonging to the same HIV-1 subtype as the target population. Each dataset varied regarding the number, the geographic origin and the transmission risk groups of the sequences among the control population. Phylogenetic trees were inferred by neighbor-joining (NJ), maximum likelihood heuristics (hML) and Bayesian methods. All clusters of sequences belonging to the target population were correctly reconstructed by NJ and Bayesian methods receiving high bootstrap and posterior probability (PP) support, respectively. On the other hand, TreePuzzle failed to reconstruct or provide significant support for several clusters; high puzzling step support was associated with the inclusion of control sequences from the same geographic area as the target population. In contrary, all clusters were correctly reconstructed by hML as implemented in PhyML 3.0 receiving high bootstrap support. We report that under the conditions of our study, hML using PhyML, NJ and Bayesian methods were the most sensitive for the reconstruction of epidemiological links mostly from sexually infected individuals. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phylogenetic analysis and victim contact tracing of rabies virus from humans and dogs in Bali, Indonesia.

PubMed

Mahardika, G N K; Dibia, N; Budayanti, N S; Susilawathi, N M; Subrata, K; Darwinata, A E; Wignall, F S; Richt, J A; Valdivia-Granda, W A; Sudewi, A A R

2014-06-01

The emergence of human and animal rabies in Bali since November 2008 has attracted local, national and international interest. The potential origin and time of introduction of rabies virus to Bali is described. The nucleoprotein (N) gene of rabies virus from dog brain and human clinical specimens was sequenced using an automated DNA sequencer. Phylogenetic inference with Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis using the Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis by Sampling Trees (BEAST) v. 1.7.5 software confirmed that the outbreak of rabies in Bali was caused by an Indonesian lineage virus following a single introduction. The ancestor of Bali viruses was the descendant of a virus from Kalimantan. Contact tracing showed that the event most likely occurred in early 2008. The introduction of rabies into a large unvaccinated dog population in Bali clearly demonstrates the risk of disease transmission for government agencies and should lead to an increased preparedness and efforts for sustained risk reduction to prevent such events from occurring in future.

Bayesian analysis of rare events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Straub, Daniel, E-mail: straub@tum.de; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

2016-06-01

In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into themore » probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.« less

Bayesian analysis of rare events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straub, Daniel; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

2016-06-01

In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study is to explore Bayesian model averaging in the propensity score context. Previous research on Bayesian propensity score analysis does not take into account model uncertainty. In this regard, an internally consistent Bayesian framework for model building and estimation must also account for model uncertainty. The…

New Mycobacterium tuberculosis LAM sublineage with geographical specificity for the Old World revealed by phylogenetical and Bayesian analyses.

PubMed

Reynaud, Yann; Rastogi, Nalin

2016-12-01

We recently showed that the Mycobacterium tuberculosis sublineage LAM9 could be subdivided as two distinct subpopulations - each reflecting its unique biogeographical structure and evolutionary history. We subsequently attempted to verify if this genetic structuration could be traced in an enlarged global sample. For this purpose, we analyzed global evolutionary relationships of LAM strains in a large dataset (n = 1923 isolates from 35 countries worldwide) with concomitant spoligotyping and MIRU-VNTR data, followed by a deeper analysis of LAM9 sublineage (n = 851 isolates). Based on a combination of phylogenetical analysis and Bayesian statistics, a total of three different clusters, tentatively named LAM9C1, C2 and C3 were described in this dataset. Closer inspection of the phylogenetic tree with concomitant data on origin of isolates with genetic clusterization revealed LAM9C3 being the most tightly knit group exclusively found in the Old World as opposed to LAM9C2 being a loosely-knit group without any phylogeographical specificity; while LAM9C1 appeared with a majority of strains being well-clustered despite some isolates that intermixed with unrelated LAM clusters. Subsequently, we hereby describe a new M. tuberculosis LAM sublineage named LAM9C3 with phylogeographical specificity for the Old World. These findings open new perspectives to study respective migration histories and adaptation to human hosts of specific M. tuberculosis clones during the exploration and conquest of the New World. We therefore plan to reevaluate the nomenclature and evolutionary history of various LAM sublineages using Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive MCMC in Bayesian phylogenetics: an application to analyzing partitioned data in BEAST.

PubMed

Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Rambaut, Andrew; Suchard, Marc A

2017-06-15

Advances in sequencing technology continue to deliver increasingly large molecular sequence datasets that are often heavily partitioned in order to accurately model the underlying evolutionary processes. In phylogenetic analyses, partitioning strategies involve estimating conditionally independent models of molecular evolution for different genes and different positions within those genes, requiring a large number of evolutionary parameters that have to be estimated, leading to an increased computational burden for such analyses. The past two decades have also seen the rise of multi-core processors, both in the central processing unit (CPU) and Graphics processing unit processor markets, enabling massively parallel computations that are not yet fully exploited by many software packages for multipartite analyses. We here propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach using an adaptive multivariate transition kernel to estimate in parallel a large number of parameters, split across partitioned data, by exploiting multi-core processing. Across several real-world examples, we demonstrate that our approach enables the estimation of these multipartite parameters more efficiently than standard approaches that typically use a mixture of univariate transition kernels. In one case, when estimating the relative rate parameter of the non-coding partition in a heterochronous dataset, MCMC integration efficiency improves by > 14-fold. Our implementation is part of the BEAST code base, a widely used open source software package to perform Bayesian phylogenetic inference. guy.baele@kuleuven.be. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Phylogenetic Diversity in the Macromolecular Composition of Microalgae

PubMed Central

Finkel, Zoe V.; Follows, Mick J.; Liefer, Justin D.; Brown, Chris M.; Benner, Ina; Irwin, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

The elemental stoichiometry of microalgae reflects their underlying macromolecular composition and influences competitive interactions among species and their role in the food web and biogeochemistry. Here we provide a new estimate of the macromolecular composition of microalgae using a hierarchical Bayesian analysis of data compiled from the literature. The median macromolecular composition of nutrient-sufficient exponentially growing microalgae is 32.2% protein, 17.3% lipid, 15.0% carbohydrate, 17.3% ash, 5.7% RNA, 1.1% chlorophyll-a and 1.0% DNA as percent dry weight. Our analysis identifies significant phylogenetic differences in macromolecular composition undetected by previous studies due to small sample sizes and the large inherent variability in macromolecular pools. The phylogenetic differences in macromolecular composition lead to variations in carbon-to-nitrogen ratios that are consistent with independent observations. These phylogenetic differences in macromolecular and elemental composition reflect adaptations in cellular architecture and biochemistry; specifically in the cell wall, the light harvesting apparatus, and storage pools. PMID:27228080

A Tutorial in Bayesian Potential Outcomes Mediation Analysis.

PubMed

Miočević, Milica; Gonzalez, Oscar; Valente, Matthew J; MacKinnon, David P

2018-01-01

Statistical mediation analysis is used to investigate intermediate variables in the relation between independent and dependent variables. Causal interpretation of mediation analyses is challenging because randomization of subjects to levels of the independent variable does not rule out the possibility of unmeasured confounders of the mediator to outcome relation. Furthermore, commonly used frequentist methods for mediation analysis compute the probability of the data given the null hypothesis, which is not the probability of a hypothesis given the data as in Bayesian analysis. Under certain assumptions, applying the potential outcomes framework to mediation analysis allows for the computation of causal effects, and statistical mediation in the Bayesian framework gives indirect effects probabilistic interpretations. This tutorial combines causal inference and Bayesian methods for mediation analysis so the indirect and direct effects have both causal and probabilistic interpretations. Steps in Bayesian causal mediation analysis are shown in the application to an empirical example.

Phylogenetic Analysis of Myobia musculi (Schranck, 1781) by Using the 18S Small Ribosomal Subunit Sequence

PubMed Central

Feldman, Sanford H; Ntenda, Abraham M

2011-01-01

We used high-fidelity PCR to amplify 2 overlapping regions of the ribosomal gene complex from the rodent fur mite Myobia musculi. The amplicons encompassed a large portion of the mite's ribosomal gene complex spanning 3128 nucleotides containing the entire 18S rRNA, internal transcribed spacer (ITS) 1, 5.8S rRNA, ITS2, and a portion of the 5′-end of the 28S rRNA. M. musculi’s 179-nucleotide 5.8S rRNA nucleotide sequence was not conserved, so this region was identified by conservation of rRNA secondary structure. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference phylogenetic analyses were performed by using multiple sequence alignment consisting of 1524 nucleotides of M. musculi 18S rRNA and homologous sequences from 42 prostigmatid mites and the tick Dermacentor andersoni. The phylograms produced by both methods were in agreement regarding terminal, secondary, and some tertiary phylogenetic relationships among mites. Bayesian inference discriminated most infraordinal relationships between Eleutherengona and Parasitengona mites in the suborder Anystina. Basal relationships between suborders Anystina and Eupodina historically determined by comparing differences in anatomic characteristics were less well-supported by our molecular analysis. Our results recapitulated similar 18S rRNA sequence analyses recently reported. Our study supports M. musculi as belonging to the suborder Anystina, infraorder Eleutherenona, and superfamily Cheyletoidea. PMID:22330574

Phylogenetic evidence for cladogenetic polyploidization in land plants.

PubMed

Zhan, Shing H; Drori, Michal; Goldberg, Emma E; Otto, Sarah P; Mayrose, Itay

2016-07-01

Polyploidization is a common and recurring phenomenon in plants and is often thought to be a mechanism of "instant speciation". Whether polyploidization is associated with the formation of new species (cladogenesis) or simply occurs over time within a lineage (anagenesis), however, has never been assessed systematically. We tested this hypothesis using phylogenetic and karyotypic information from 235 plant genera (mostly angiosperms). We first constructed a large database of combined sequence and chromosome number data sets using an automated procedure. We then applied likelihood models (ClaSSE) that estimate the degree of synchronization between polyploidization and speciation events in maximum likelihood and Bayesian frameworks. Our maximum likelihood analysis indicated that 35 genera supported a model that includes cladogenetic transitions over a model with only anagenetic transitions, whereas three genera supported a model that incorporates anagenetic transitions over one with only cladogenetic transitions. Furthermore, the Bayesian analysis supported a preponderance of cladogenetic change in four genera but did not support a preponderance of anagenetic change in any genus. Overall, these phylogenetic analyses provide the first broad confirmation that polyploidization is temporally associated with speciation events, suggesting that it is indeed a major speciation mechanism in plants, at least in some genera. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

PubMed Central

Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.; Piatek, Rémi

2014-01-01

This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates from a high dimensional set of psychological measurements. PMID:25431517

Robust Bayesian Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayashi, Kentaro; Yuan, Ke-Hai

2003-01-01

Bayesian factor analysis (BFA) assumes the normal distribution of the current sample conditional on the parameters. Practical data in social and behavioral sciences typically have significant skewness and kurtosis. If the normality assumption is not attainable, the posterior analysis will be inaccurate, although the BFA depends less on the current…

Bayesian Latent Class Analysis Tutorial.

PubMed

Li, Yuelin; Lord-Bessen, Jennifer; Shiyko, Mariya; Loeb, Rebecca

2018-01-01

This article is a how-to guide on Bayesian computation using Gibbs sampling, demonstrated in the context of Latent Class Analysis (LCA). It is written for students in quantitative psychology or related fields who have a working knowledge of Bayes Theorem and conditional probability and have experience in writing computer programs in the statistical language R . The overall goals are to provide an accessible and self-contained tutorial, along with a practical computation tool. We begin with how Bayesian computation is typically described in academic articles. Technical difficulties are addressed by a hypothetical, worked-out example. We show how Bayesian computation can be broken down into a series of simpler calculations, which can then be assembled together to complete a computationally more complex model. The details are described much more explicitly than what is typically available in elementary introductions to Bayesian modeling so that readers are not overwhelmed by the mathematics. Moreover, the provided computer program shows how Bayesian LCA can be implemented with relative ease. The computer program is then applied in a large, real-world data set and explained line-by-line. We outline the general steps in how to extend these considerations to other methodological applications. We conclude with suggestions for further readings.

Bayesian data analysis in population ecology: motivations, methods, and benefits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert

2016-01-01

During the 20th century ecologists largely relied on the frequentist system of inference for the analysis of their data. However, in the past few decades ecologists have become increasingly interested in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this article I provide guidance to ecologists who would like to decide whether Bayesian methods can be used to improve their conclusions and predictions. I begin by providing a concise summary of Bayesian methods of analysis, including a comparison of differences between Bayesian and frequentist approaches to inference when using hierarchical models. Next I provide a list of problems where Bayesian methods of analysis may arguably be preferred over frequentist methods. These problems are usually encountered in analyses based on hierarchical models of data. I describe the essentials required for applying modern methods of Bayesian computation, and I use real-world examples to illustrate these methods. I conclude by summarizing what I perceive to be the main strengths and weaknesses of using Bayesian methods to solve ecological inference problems.

Bayesian Statistics for Biological Data: Pedigree Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stanfield, William D.; Carlton, Matthew A.

2004-01-01

The use of Bayes' formula is applied to the biological problem of pedigree analysis to show that the Bayes' formula and non-Bayesian or "classical" methods of probability calculation give different answers. First year college students of biology can be introduced to the Bayesian statistics.

Spatiotemporal Phylogenetic Analysis and Molecular Characterisation of Infectious Bursal Disease Viruses Based on the VP2 Hyper-Variable Region.

PubMed

Alfonso-Morales, Abdulahi; Martínez-Pérez, Orlando; Dolz, Roser; Valle, Rosa; Perera, Carmen L; Bertran, Kateri; Frías, Maria T; Majó, Natàlia; Ganges, Llilianne; Pérez, Lester J

2013-01-01

Infectious bursal disease is a highly contagious and acute viral disease caused by the infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV); it affects all major poultry producing areas of the world. The current study was designed to rigorously measure the global phylogeographic dynamics of IBDV strains to gain insight into viral population expansion as well as the emergence, spread and pattern of the geographical structure of very virulent IBDV (vvIBDV) strains. Sequences of the hyper-variable region of the VP2 (HVR-VP2) gene from IBDV strains isolated from diverse geographic locations were obtained from the GenBank database; Cuban sequences were obtained in the current work. All sequences were analysed by Bayesian phylogeographic analysis, implemented in the Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis Sampling Trees (BEAST), Bayesian Tip-association Significance testing (BaTS) and Spatial Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Evolutionary Dynamics (SPREAD) software packages. Selection pressure on the HVR-VP2 was also assessed. The phylogeographic association-trait analysis showed that viruses sampled from individual countries tend to cluster together, suggesting a geographic pattern for IBDV strains. Spatial analysis from this study revealed that strains carrying sequences that were linked to increased virulence of IBDV appeared in Iran in 1981 and spread to Western Europe (Belgium) in 1987, Africa (Egypt) around 1990, East Asia (China and Japan) in 1993, the Caribbean Region (Cuba) by 1995 and South America (Brazil) around 2000. Selection pressure analysis showed that several codons in the HVR-VP2 region were under purifying selection. To our knowledge, this work is the first study applying the Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction approach to analyse the emergence and spread of vvIBDV strains worldwide.

Spatiotemporal Phylogenetic Analysis and Molecular Characterisation of Infectious Bursal Disease Viruses Based on the VP2 Hyper-Variable Region

PubMed Central

Dolz, Roser; Valle, Rosa; Perera, Carmen L.; Bertran, Kateri; Frías, Maria T.; Majó, Natàlia; Ganges, Llilianne; Pérez, Lester J.

2013-01-01

Background Infectious bursal disease is a highly contagious and acute viral disease caused by the infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV); it affects all major poultry producing areas of the world. The current study was designed to rigorously measure the global phylogeographic dynamics of IBDV strains to gain insight into viral population expansion as well as the emergence, spread and pattern of the geographical structure of very virulent IBDV (vvIBDV) strains. Methodology/Principal Findings Sequences of the hyper-variable region of the VP2 (HVR-VP2) gene from IBDV strains isolated from diverse geographic locations were obtained from the GenBank database; Cuban sequences were obtained in the current work. All sequences were analysed by Bayesian phylogeographic analysis, implemented in the Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis Sampling Trees (BEAST), Bayesian Tip-association Significance testing (BaTS) and Spatial Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Evolutionary Dynamics (SPREAD) software packages. Selection pressure on the HVR-VP2 was also assessed. The phylogeographic association-trait analysis showed that viruses sampled from individual countries tend to cluster together, suggesting a geographic pattern for IBDV strains. Spatial analysis from this study revealed that strains carrying sequences that were linked to increased virulence of IBDV appeared in Iran in 1981 and spread to Western Europe (Belgium) in 1987, Africa (Egypt) around 1990, East Asia (China and Japan) in 1993, the Caribbean Region (Cuba) by 1995 and South America (Brazil) around 2000. Selection pressure analysis showed that several codons in the HVR-VP2 region were under purifying selection. Conclusions/Significance To our knowledge, this work is the first study applying the Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction approach to analyse the emergence and spread of vvIBDV strains worldwide. PMID:23805195

Choosing and Using Introns in Molecular Phylogenetics

PubMed Central

Creer, Simon

2007-01-01

Introns are now commonly used in molecular phylogenetics in an attempt to recover gene trees that are concordant with species trees, but there are a range of genomic, logistical and analytical considerations that are infrequently discussed in empirical studies that utilize intron data. This review outlines expedient approaches for locus selection, overcoming paralogy problems, recombination detection methods and the identification and incorporation of LVHs in molecular systematics. A range of parsimony and Bayesian analytical approaches are also described in order to highlight the methods that can currently be employed to align sequences and treat indels in subsequent analyses. By covering the main points associated with the generation and analysis of intron data, this review aims to provide a comprehensive introduction to using introns (or any non-coding nuclear data partition) in contemporary phylogenetics. PMID:19461984

Open Reading Frame Phylogenetic Analysis on the Cloud

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Phylogenetic analysis has become essential in researching the evolutionary relationships between viruses. These relationships are depicted on phylogenetic trees, in which viruses are grouped based on sequence similarity. Viral evolutionary relationships are identified from open reading frames rather than from complete sequences. Recently, cloud computing has become popular for developing internet-based bioinformatics tools. Biocloud is an efficient, scalable, and robust bioinformatics computing service. In this paper, we propose a cloud-based open reading frame phylogenetic analysis service. The proposed service integrates the Hadoop framework, virtualization technology, and phylogenetic analysis methods to provide a high-availability, large-scale bioservice. In a case study, we analyze the phylogenetic relationships among Norovirus. Evolutionary relationships are elucidated by aligning different open reading frame sequences. The proposed platform correctly identifies the evolutionary relationships between members of Norovirus. PMID:23671843

The space of ultrametric phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Gavryushkin, Alex; Drummond, Alexei J

2016-08-21

The reliability of a phylogenetic inference method from genomic sequence data is ensured by its statistical consistency. Bayesian inference methods produce a sample of phylogenetic trees from the posterior distribution given sequence data. Hence the question of statistical consistency of such methods is equivalent to the consistency of the summary of the sample. More generally, statistical consistency is ensured by the tree space used to analyse the sample. In this paper, we consider two standard parameterisations of phylogenetic time-trees used in evolutionary models: inter-coalescent interval lengths and absolute times of divergence events. For each of these parameterisations we introduce a natural metric space on ultrametric phylogenetic trees. We compare the introduced spaces with existing models of tree space and formulate several formal requirements that a metric space on phylogenetic trees must possess in order to be a satisfactory space for statistical analysis, and justify them. We show that only a few known constructions of the space of phylogenetic trees satisfy these requirements. However, our results suggest that these basic requirements are not enough to distinguish between the two metric spaces we introduce and that the choice between metric spaces requires additional properties to be considered. Particularly, that the summary tree minimising the square distance to the trees from the sample might be different for different parameterisations. This suggests that further fundamental insight is needed into the problem of statistical consistency of phylogenetic inference methods. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A. G.

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are…

Treetrimmer: a method for phylogenetic dataset size reduction.

PubMed

Maruyama, Shinichiro; Eveleigh, Robert J M; Archibald, John M

2013-04-12

With rapid advances in genome sequencing and bioinformatics, it is now possible to generate phylogenetic trees containing thousands of operational taxonomic units (OTUs) from a wide range of organisms. However, use of rigorous tree-building methods on such large datasets is prohibitive and manual 'pruning' of sequence alignments is time consuming and raises concerns over reproducibility. There is a need for bioinformatic tools with which to objectively carry out such pruning procedures. Here we present 'TreeTrimmer', a bioinformatics procedure that removes unnecessary redundancy in large phylogenetic datasets, alleviating the size effect on more rigorous downstream analyses. The method identifies and removes user-defined 'redundant' sequences, e.g., orthologous sequences from closely related organisms and 'recently' evolved lineage-specific paralogs. Representative OTUs are retained for more rigorous re-analysis. TreeTrimmer reduces the OTU density of phylogenetic trees without sacrificing taxonomic diversity while retaining the original tree topology, thereby speeding up downstream computer-intensive analyses, e.g., Bayesian and maximum likelihood tree reconstructions, in a reproducible fashion.

Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jesus, J. F.; Valentim, R.; Andrade-Oliveira, F.

2017-09-01

Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3αH0 model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

Power in Bayesian Mediation Analysis for Small Sample Research.

PubMed

Miočević, Milica; MacKinnon, David P; Levy, Roy

2017-01-01

It was suggested that Bayesian methods have potential for increasing power in mediation analysis (Koopman, Howe, Hollenbeck, & Sin, 2015; Yuan & MacKinnon, 2009). This paper compares the power of Bayesian credibility intervals for the mediated effect to the power of normal theory, distribution of the product, percentile, and bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals at N≤ 200. Bayesian methods with diffuse priors have power comparable to the distribution of the product and bootstrap methods, and Bayesian methods with informative priors had the most power. Varying degrees of precision of prior distributions were also examined. Increased precision led to greater power only when N≥ 100 and the effects were small, N < 60 and the effects were large, and N < 200 and the effects were medium. An empirical example from psychology illustrated a Bayesian analysis of the single mediator model from prior selection to interpreting results.

A SAS Interface for Bayesian Analysis with WinBUGS

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Zhiyong; McArdle, John J.; Wang, Lijuan; Hamagami, Fumiaki

2008-01-01

Bayesian methods are becoming very popular despite some practical difficulties in implementation. To assist in the practical application of Bayesian methods, we show how to implement Bayesian analysis with WinBUGS as part of a standard set of SAS routines. This implementation procedure is first illustrated by fitting a multiple regression model…

The phylogenetic relationships of known mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) mitogenomes.

PubMed

Chu, Hongliang; Li, Chunxiao; Guo, Xiaoxia; Zhang, Hengduan; Luo, Peng; Wu, Zhonghua; Wang, Gang; Zhao, Tongyan

2018-01-01

The known mosquito mitogenomes, containing a total of 34 species, which belong to five genera, were collected from GenBank, and the practicality and effectiveness of the variation in the complete mitochondrial DNA genome and portions of mitochondrial COI gene were assessed to reconstruct the phylogeny of mosquitoes. Phylogenetic trees were reconstructed on the basis of parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian (BI) methods. It is concluded that: (1) Both mitogenomes and COI gene support the monophly of following taxa: Subgenus Nyssorhynchus, Subgenus Cellia, Anopheles albitarsis complex, Anopheles gambiae complex, and Anopheles punctulatus group; (2) Genus Aedes is not monophyletic relative to Ochlerotatus vigilax; (3) The mitogenome results indicate a close relationship between Anopheles epiroticus and Anopheles gambiae complex, Anopheles dirus complex and Anopheles punctulatus group, respectively; (4) The Bayesian posterior probability (BPP) within phylogenetic tree reconstructed by mitogenomes is higher than COI tree. The results show that phylogenetic relationships reconstructed using the mitogenomes were more similar to those based on morphological data.

Power in Bayesian Mediation Analysis for Small Sample Research

PubMed Central

Miočević, Milica; MacKinnon, David P.; Levy, Roy

2018-01-01

It was suggested that Bayesian methods have potential for increasing power in mediation analysis (Koopman, Howe, Hollenbeck, & Sin, 2015; Yuan & MacKinnon, 2009). This paper compares the power of Bayesian credibility intervals for the mediated effect to the power of normal theory, distribution of the product, percentile, and bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals at N≤ 200. Bayesian methods with diffuse priors have power comparable to the distribution of the product and bootstrap methods, and Bayesian methods with informative priors had the most power. Varying degrees of precision of prior distributions were also examined. Increased precision led to greater power only when N≥ 100 and the effects were small, N < 60 and the effects were large, and N < 200 and the effects were medium. An empirical example from psychology illustrated a Bayesian analysis of the single mediator model from prior selection to interpreting results. PMID:29662296

A Bayesian approach to meta-analysis of plant pathology studies.

PubMed

Mila, A L; Ngugi, H K

2011-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are used for meta-analysis in many disciplines, including medicine, molecular biology, and engineering, but have not yet been applied for quantitative synthesis of plant pathology studies. In this paper, we illustrate the key concepts of Bayesian statistics and outline the differences between Bayesian and classical (frequentist) methods in the way parameters describing population attributes are considered. We then describe a Bayesian approach to meta-analysis and present a plant pathological example based on studies evaluating the efficacy of plant protection products that induce systemic acquired resistance for the management of fire blight of apple. In a simple random-effects model assuming a normal distribution of effect sizes and no prior information (i.e., a noninformative prior), the results of the Bayesian meta-analysis are similar to those obtained with classical methods. Implementing the same model with a Student's t distribution and a noninformative prior for the effect sizes, instead of a normal distribution, yields similar results for all but acibenzolar-S-methyl (Actigard) which was evaluated only in seven studies in this example. Whereas both the classical (P = 0.28) and the Bayesian analysis with a noninformative prior (95% credibility interval [CRI] for the log response ratio: -0.63 to 0.08) indicate a nonsignificant effect for Actigard, specifying a t distribution resulted in a significant, albeit variable, effect for this product (CRI: -0.73 to -0.10). These results confirm the sensitivity of the analytical outcome (i.e., the posterior distribution) to the choice of prior in Bayesian meta-analyses involving a limited number of studies. We review some pertinent literature on more advanced topics, including modeling of among-study heterogeneity, publication bias, analyses involving a limited number of studies, and methods for dealing with missing data, and show how these issues can be approached in a Bayesian framework

Probabilistic Graphical Model Representation in Phylogenetics

PubMed Central

Höhna, Sebastian; Heath, Tracy A.; Boussau, Bastien; Landis, Michael J.; Ronquist, Fredrik; Huelsenbeck, John P.

2014-01-01

Recent years have seen a rapid expansion of the model space explored in statistical phylogenetics, emphasizing the need for new approaches to statistical model representation and software development. Clear communication and representation of the chosen model is crucial for: (i) reproducibility of an analysis, (ii) model development, and (iii) software design. Moreover, a unified, clear and understandable framework for model representation lowers the barrier for beginners and nonspecialists to grasp complex phylogenetic models, including their assumptions and parameter/variable dependencies. Graphical modeling is a unifying framework that has gained in popularity in the statistical literature in recent years. The core idea is to break complex models into conditionally independent distributions. The strength lies in the comprehensibility, flexibility, and adaptability of this formalism, and the large body of computational work based on it. Graphical models are well-suited to teach statistical models, to facilitate communication among phylogeneticists and in the development of generic software for simulation and statistical inference. Here, we provide an introduction to graphical models for phylogeneticists and extend the standard graphical model representation to the realm of phylogenetics. We introduce a new graphical model component, tree plates, to capture the changing structure of the subgraph corresponding to a phylogenetic tree. We describe a range of phylogenetic models using the graphical model framework and introduce modules to simplify the representation of standard components in large and complex models. Phylogenetic model graphs can be readily used in simulation, maximum likelihood inference, and Bayesian inference using, for example, Metropolis–Hastings or Gibbs sampling of the posterior distribution. [Computation; graphical models; inference; modularization; statistical phylogenetics; tree plate.] PMID:24951559

Phylogenetic Analysis and Epidemic History of Hepatitis C Virus Genotype 2 in Tunisia, North Africa

PubMed Central

Rajhi, Mouna; Ghedira, Kais; Chouikha, Anissa; Djebbi, Ahlem; Cheikh, Imed; Ben Yahia, Ahlem; Sadraoui, Amel; Hammami, Walid; Azouz, Msaddek; Ben Mami, Nabil; Triki, Henda

2016-01-01

HCV genotype 2 (HCV-2) has a worldwide distribution with prevalence rates that vary from country to country. High genetic diversity and long-term endemicity were suggested in West African countries. A global dispersal of HCV-2 would have occurred during the 20th century, especially in European countries. In Tunisia, genotype 2 was the second prevalent genotype after genotype 1 and most isolates belong to subtypes 2c and 2k. In this study, phylogenetic analyses based on the NS5B genomic sequences of 113 Tunisian HCV isolates from subtypes 2c and 2k were carried out. A Bayesian coalescent-based framework was used to estimate the origin and the spread of these subtypes circulating in Tunisia. Phylogenetic analyses of HCV-2c sequences suggest the absence of country-specific or time-specific variants. In contrast, the phylogenetic grouping of HCV-2k sequences shows the existence of two major genetic clusters that may represent two distinct circulating variants. Coalescent analysis indicated a most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of Tunisian HCV-2c around 1886 (1869–1902) before the introduction of HCV-2k in 1901 (1867–1931). Our findings suggest that the introduction of HCV-2c in Tunisia is possibly a result of population movements between Tunisia and European population following the French colonization. PMID:27100294

Phylogenetic Analysis and Epidemic History of Hepatitis C Virus Genotype 2 in Tunisia, North Africa.

PubMed

Rajhi, Mouna; Ghedira, Kais; Chouikha, Anissa; Djebbi, Ahlem; Cheikh, Imed; Ben Yahia, Ahlem; Sadraoui, Amel; Hammami, Walid; Azouz, Msaddek; Ben Mami, Nabil; Triki, Henda

2016-01-01

HCV genotype 2 (HCV-2) has a worldwide distribution with prevalence rates that vary from country to country. High genetic diversity and long-term endemicity were suggested in West African countries. A global dispersal of HCV-2 would have occurred during the 20th century, especially in European countries. In Tunisia, genotype 2 was the second prevalent genotype after genotype 1 and most isolates belong to subtypes 2c and 2k. In this study, phylogenetic analyses based on the NS5B genomic sequences of 113 Tunisian HCV isolates from subtypes 2c and 2k were carried out. A Bayesian coalescent-based framework was used to estimate the origin and the spread of these subtypes circulating in Tunisia. Phylogenetic analyses of HCV-2c sequences suggest the absence of country-specific or time-specific variants. In contrast, the phylogenetic grouping of HCV-2k sequences shows the existence of two major genetic clusters that may represent two distinct circulating variants. Coalescent analysis indicated a most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of Tunisian HCV-2c around 1886 (1869-1902) before the introduction of HCV-2k in 1901 (1867-1931). Our findings suggest that the introduction of HCV-2c in Tunisia is possibly a result of population movements between Tunisia and European population following the French colonization.

A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

PubMed Central

van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B; Neyer, Franz J; van Aken, Marcel AG

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are introduced using a simplified example. Thereafter, the advantages and pitfalls of the specification of prior knowledge are discussed. To illustrate Bayesian methods explained in this study, in a second example a series of studies that examine the theoretical framework of dynamic interactionism are considered. In the Discussion the advantages and disadvantages of using Bayesian statistics are reviewed, and guidelines on how to report on Bayesian statistics are provided. PMID:24116396

Molecular epidemiology and phylogenetic analysis of Hepatitis B virus in a group of migrants in Italy.

PubMed

Villano, Umbertina; Lo Presti, Alessandra; Equestre, Michele; Cella, Eleonora; Pisani, Giulio; Giovanetti, Marta; Bruni, Roberto; Tritarelli, Elena; Amicosante, Massimo; Grifoni, Alba; Scarcella, Carmelo; El-Hamad, Issa; Pezzoli, Maria Chiara; Angeletti, Silvia; Silvia, Angeletti; Ciccaglione, Anna Rita; Ciccozzi, Massimo

2015-07-25

Hepatitis B virus infection (HBV) is widespread and it is considered a major health problem worldwide. The global distribution of HBV varies significantly between countries and between regions of the world. Among the many factors contributing to the changing epidemiology of viral hepatitis, the movement of people within and between countries is a potentially important one. In Italy, the number of migrant individuals has been increasing during the past 25 years. HBV genotype D has been found throughout the world, although its highest prevalence is in the Mediterranean area, the Middle East and southern Asia. We describe the molecular epidemiology of HBV in a chronically infected population of migrants (living in Italy), by using the phylogenetic analysis. HBV-DNA was amplified and sequenced from 43 HBV chronically infected patients. Phylogenetic and evolutionary analysis were performed using both maximum Likelihood and Bayesian methods. Of the 43 HBV S gene isolates from migrants, 25 (58.1 %) were classified as D genotype. Maximum Likelihood analysis showed an intermixing between Moldavian and foreigners sequences mostly respect to Italian ones. Italian sequences clustered mostly together in a main clade separately from all others. The estimation of the time of the tree's root gave a mean value of 17 years ago, suggesting the origin of the tree back to 1992 year. The skyline plot showed that the number of infections softly increased until the early 2005s, after which reached a plateau. Comparing phylogenetic data to the migrants date of arrival in Italy, it should be possible that migrants arrived in Italy yet infected from their country of origin. In conclusion, this is the first paper where phylogenetic analysis and genetic evolution has been used to characterize HBV sub genotypes D1 circulation in a selected and homogenous group of migrants coming from a restricted area of Balkans and to approximately define the period of infection besides the migration date.

Bayesian linkage and segregation analysis: factoring the problem.

PubMed

Matthysse, S

2000-01-01

Complex segregation analysis and linkage methods are mathematical techniques for the genetic dissection of complex diseases. They are used to delineate complex modes of familial transmission and to localize putative disease susceptibility loci to specific chromosomal locations. The computational problem of Bayesian linkage and segregation analysis is one of integration in high-dimensional spaces. In this paper, three available techniques for Bayesian linkage and segregation analysis are discussed: Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), importance sampling, and exact calculation. The contribution of each to the overall integration will be explicitly discussed.

Molecular phylogenetic and dating analysis of pierid butterfly species using complete mitochondrial genomes.

PubMed

Cao, Y; Hao, J S; Sun, X Y; Zheng, B; Yang, Q

2016-12-02

Pieridae is a butterfly family whose evolutionary history is poorly understood. Due to the difficulties in identifying morphological synapomorphies within the group and the scarcity of the fossil records, only a few studies on higher phylogeny of Pieridae have been reported to date. In this study, we describe the complete mitochondrial genomes of four pierid butterfly species (Aporia martineti, Aporia hippia, Aporia bieti, and Mesapia peloria), in order to better characterize the pierid butterfly mitogenomes and perform the phylogenetic analyses using all available mitogenomic sequence data (13PCGs, rRNAs, and tRNAs) from the 18 pierid butterfly species comprising the three main subfamilies (Dismorphiinae, Coliadinae and Pierinae). Our analysis shows that the four new mitogenomes share similar features with other known pierid mitogenomes in gene order and organization. Phylogenetic analyses by maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference show that the pierid higher-level relationship is: Dismorphiinae + (Coliadinae + Pierinae), which corroborates the results of some previous molecular and morphological studies. However, we found that the Hebomoia and Anthocharis make a sister group, supporting the traditional tribe Anthocharidini; in addition, the Mesapia peloria was shown to be clustered within the Aporia group, suggesting that the genus Mesapia should be reduced to the taxonomic status of subgenus. Our molecular dating analysis indicates that the family Pieridae began to diverge during the Late Cretaceous about 92 million years ago (mya), while the subfamily Pierinae diverged from the Coliadinae at about 86 mya (Late Cretaceous).

The Application of Bayesian Analysis to Issues in Developmental Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walker, Lawrence J.; Gustafson, Paul; Frimer, Jeremy A.

2007-01-01

This article reviews the concepts and methods of Bayesian statistical analysis, which can offer innovative and powerful solutions to some challenging analytical problems that characterize developmental research. In this article, we demonstrate the utility of Bayesian analysis, explain its unique adeptness in some circumstances, address some…

Bayesian survival analysis in clinical trials: What methods are used in practice?

PubMed

Brard, Caroline; Le Teuff, Gwénaël; Le Deley, Marie-Cécile; Hampson, Lisa V

2017-02-01

Background Bayesian statistics are an appealing alternative to the traditional frequentist approach to designing, analysing, and reporting of clinical trials, especially in rare diseases. Time-to-event endpoints are widely used in many medical fields. There are additional complexities to designing Bayesian survival trials which arise from the need to specify a model for the survival distribution. The objective of this article was to critically review the use and reporting of Bayesian methods in survival trials. Methods A systematic review of clinical trials using Bayesian survival analyses was performed through PubMed and Web of Science databases. This was complemented by a full text search of the online repositories of pre-selected journals. Cost-effectiveness, dose-finding studies, meta-analyses, and methodological papers using clinical trials were excluded. Results In total, 28 articles met the inclusion criteria, 25 were original reports of clinical trials and 3 were re-analyses of a clinical trial. Most trials were in oncology (n = 25), were randomised controlled (n = 21) phase III trials (n = 13), and half considered a rare disease (n = 13). Bayesian approaches were used for monitoring in 14 trials and for the final analysis only in 14 trials. In the latter case, Bayesian survival analyses were used for the primary analysis in four cases, for the secondary analysis in seven cases, and for the trial re-analysis in three cases. Overall, 12 articles reported fitting Bayesian regression models (semi-parametric, n = 3; parametric, n = 9). Prior distributions were often incompletely reported: 20 articles did not define the prior distribution used for the parameter of interest. Over half of the trials used only non-informative priors for monitoring and the final analysis (n = 12) when it was specified. Indeed, no articles fitting Bayesian regression models placed informative priors on the parameter of interest. The prior for the treatment

Bayesian Correlation Analysis for Sequence Count Data

PubMed Central

Lau, Nelson; Perkins, Theodore J.

2016-01-01

Evaluating the similarity of different measured variables is a fundamental task of statistics, and a key part of many bioinformatics algorithms. Here we propose a Bayesian scheme for estimating the correlation between different entities’ measurements based on high-throughput sequencing data. These entities could be different genes or miRNAs whose expression is measured by RNA-seq, different transcription factors or histone marks whose expression is measured by ChIP-seq, or even combinations of different types of entities. Our Bayesian formulation accounts for both measured signal levels and uncertainty in those levels, due to varying sequencing depth in different experiments and to varying absolute levels of individual entities, both of which affect the precision of the measurements. In comparison with a traditional Pearson correlation analysis, we show that our Bayesian correlation analysis retains high correlations when measurement confidence is high, but suppresses correlations when measurement confidence is low—especially for entities with low signal levels. In addition, we consider the influence of priors on the Bayesian correlation estimate. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that naive, uniform priors on entities’ signal levels can lead to highly biased correlation estimates, particularly when different experiments have widely varying sequencing depths. However, we propose two alternative priors that provably mitigate this problem. We also prove that, like traditional Pearson correlation, our Bayesian correlation calculation constitutes a kernel in the machine learning sense, and thus can be used as a similarity measure in any kernel-based machine learning algorithm. We demonstrate our approach on two RNA-seq datasets and one miRNA-seq dataset. PMID:27701449

A Primer on Bayesian Analysis for Experimental Psychopathologists

PubMed Central

Krypotos, Angelos-Miltiadis; Blanken, Tessa F.; Arnaudova, Inna; Matzke, Dora; Beckers, Tom

2016-01-01

The principal goals of experimental psychopathology (EPP) research are to offer insights into the pathogenic mechanisms of mental disorders and to provide a stable ground for the development of clinical interventions. The main message of the present article is that those goals are better served by the adoption of Bayesian statistics than by the continued use of null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST). In the first part of the article we list the main disadvantages of NHST and explain why those disadvantages limit the conclusions that can be drawn from EPP research. Next, we highlight the advantages of Bayesian statistics. To illustrate, we then pit NHST and Bayesian analysis against each other using an experimental data set from our lab. Finally, we discuss some challenges when adopting Bayesian statistics. We hope that the present article will encourage experimental psychopathologists to embrace Bayesian statistics, which could strengthen the conclusions drawn from EPP research. PMID:28748068

Bayesian dynamic mediation analysis.

PubMed

Huang, Jing; Yuan, Ying

2017-12-01

Most existing methods for mediation analysis assume that mediation is a stationary, time-invariant process, which overlooks the inherently dynamic nature of many human psychological processes and behavioral activities. In this article, we consider mediation as a dynamic process that continuously changes over time. We propose Bayesian multilevel time-varying coefficient models to describe and estimate such dynamic mediation effects. By taking the nonparametric penalized spline approach, the proposed method is flexible and able to accommodate any shape of the relationship between time and mediation effects. Simulation studies show that the proposed method works well and faithfully reflects the true nature of the mediation process. By modeling mediation effect nonparametrically as a continuous function of time, our method provides a valuable tool to help researchers obtain a more complete understanding of the dynamic nature of the mediation process underlying psychological and behavioral phenomena. We also briefly discuss an alternative approach of using dynamic autoregressive mediation model to estimate the dynamic mediation effect. The computer code is provided to implement the proposed Bayesian dynamic mediation analysis. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Coefficient Alpha

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brannick, Michael T.; Zhang, Nanhua

2013-01-01

The current paper describes and illustrates a Bayesian approach to the meta-analysis of coefficient alpha. Alpha is the most commonly used estimate of the reliability or consistency (freedom from measurement error) for educational and psychological measures. The conventional approach to meta-analysis uses inverse variance weights to combine…

Ockham's razor and Bayesian analysis. [statistical theory for systems evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jefferys, William H.; Berger, James O.

1992-01-01

'Ockham's razor', the ad hoc principle enjoining the greatest possible simplicity in theoretical explanations, is presently shown to be justifiable as a consequence of Bayesian inference; Bayesian analysis can, moreover, clarify the nature of the 'simplest' hypothesis consistent with the given data. By choosing the prior probabilities of hypotheses, it becomes possible to quantify the scientific judgment that simpler hypotheses are more likely to be correct. Bayesian analysis also shows that a hypothesis with fewer adjustable parameters intrinsically possesses an enhanced posterior probability, due to the clarity of its predictions.

Comparative cytogenetic analysis of some species of the Dendropsophus microcephalus group (Anura, Hylidae) in the light of phylogenetic inferences

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Dendropsophus is a monophyletic anuran genus with a diploid number of 30 chromosomes as an important synapomorphy. However, the internal phylogenetic relationships of this genus are poorly understood. Interestingly, an intriguing interspecific variation in the telocentric chromosome number has been useful in species identification. To address certain uncertainties related to one of the species groups of Dendropsophus, the D. microcephalus group, we carried out a cytogenetic analysis combined with phylogenetic inferences based on mitochondrial sequences, which aimed to aid in the analysis of chromosomal characters. Populations of Dendropsophus nanus, Dendropsophus walfordi, Dendropsophus sanborni, Dendropsophus jimi and Dendropsophus elianeae, ranging from the extreme south to the north of Brazil, were cytogenetically compared. A mitochondrial region of the ribosomal 12S gene from these populations, as well as from 30 other species of Dendropsophus, was used for the phylogenetic inferences. Phylogenetic relationships were inferred using maximum parsimony and Bayesian analyses. Results The species D. nanus and D. walfordi exhibited identical karyotypes (2n = 30; FN = 52), with four pairs of telocentric chromosomes and a NOR located on metacentric chromosome pair 13. In all of the phylogenetic hypotheses, the paraphyly of D. nanus and D. walfordi was inferred. D. sanborni from Botucatu-SP and Torres-RS showed the same karyotype as D. jimi, with 5 pairs of telocentric chromosomes (2n = 30; FN = 50) and a terminal NOR in the long arm of the telocentric chromosome pair 12. Despite their karyotypic similarity, these species were not found to compose a monophyletic group. Finally, the phylogenetic and cytogenetic analyses did not cluster the specimens of D. elianeae according to their geographical occurrence or recognized morphotypes. Conclusions We suggest that a taxonomic revision of the taxa D. nanus and D. walfordi is quite necessary. We also

A Bayesian framework to estimate diversification rates and their variation through time and space

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Patterns of species diversity are the result of speciation and extinction processes, and molecular phylogenetic data can provide valuable information to derive their variability through time and across clades. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods offer a promising framework to incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty when estimating rates of diversification. Results We introduce a new approach to estimate diversification rates in a Bayesian framework over a distribution of trees under various constant and variable rate birth-death and pure-birth models, and test it on simulated phylogenies. Furthermore, speciation and extinction rates and their posterior credibility intervals can be estimated while accounting for non-random taxon sampling. The framework is particularly suitable for hypothesis testing using Bayes factors, as we demonstrate analyzing dated phylogenies of Chondrostoma (Cyprinidae) and Lupinus (Fabaceae). In addition, we develop a model that extends the rate estimation to a meta-analysis framework in which different data sets are combined in a single analysis to detect general temporal and spatial trends in diversification. Conclusions Our approach provides a flexible framework for the estimation of diversification parameters and hypothesis testing while simultaneously accounting for uncertainties in the divergence times and incomplete taxon sampling. PMID:22013891

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Bayesian Data Analysis in Astronomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Sanjib

2017-08-01

Markov Chain Monte Carlo based Bayesian data analysis has now become the method of choice for analyzing and interpreting data in almost all disciplines of science. In astronomy, over the last decade, we have also seen a steady increase in the number of papers that employ Monte Carlo based Bayesian analysis. New, efficient Monte Carlo based methods are continuously being developed and explored. In this review, we first explain the basics of Bayesian theory and discuss how to set up data analysis problems within this framework. Next, we provide an overview of various Monte Carlo based methods for performing Bayesian data analysis. Finally, we discuss advanced ideas that enable us to tackle complex problems and thus hold great promise for the future. We also distribute downloadable computer software (available at https://github.com/sanjibs/bmcmc/ ) that implements some of the algorithms and examples discussed here.

Simultaneously estimating evolutionary history and repeated traits phylogenetic signal: applications to viral and host phenotypic evolution

PubMed Central

Vrancken, Bram; Lemey, Philippe; Rambaut, Andrew; Bedford, Trevor; Longdon, Ben; Günthard, Huldrych F.; Suchard, Marc A.

2014-01-01

Phylogenetic signal quantifies the degree to which resemblance in continuously-valued traits reflects phylogenetic relatedness. Measures of phylogenetic signal are widely used in ecological and evolutionary research, and are recently gaining traction in viral evolutionary studies. Standard estimators of phylogenetic signal frequently condition on data summary statistics of the repeated trait observations and fixed phylogenetics trees, resulting in information loss and potential bias. To incorporate the observation process and phylogenetic uncertainty in a model-based approach, we develop a novel Bayesian inference method to simultaneously estimate the evolutionary history and phylogenetic signal from molecular sequence data and repeated multivariate traits. Our approach builds upon a phylogenetic diffusion framework that model continuous trait evolution as a Brownian motion process and incorporates Pagel’s λ transformation parameter to estimate dependence among traits. We provide a computationally efficient inference implementation in the BEAST software package. We evaluate the synthetic performance of the Bayesian estimator of phylogenetic signal against standard estimators, and demonstrate the use of our coherent framework to address several virus-host evolutionary questions, including virulence heritability for HIV, antigenic evolution in influenza and HIV, and Drosophila sensitivity to sigma virus infection. Finally, we discuss model extensions that will make useful contributions to our flexible framework for simultaneously studying sequence and trait evolution. PMID:25780554

Inferring 'weak spots' in phylogenetic trees: application to mosasauroid nomenclature.

PubMed

Madzia, Daniel; Cau, Andrea

2017-01-01

Mosasauroid squamates represented the apex predators within the Late Cretaceous marine and occasionally also freshwater ecosystems. Proper understanding of the origin of their ecological adaptations or paleobiogeographic dispersals requires adequate knowledge of their phylogeny. The studies assessing the position of mosasauroids on the squamate evolutionary tree and their origins have long given conflicting results. The phylogenetic relationships within Mosasauroidea, however, have experienced only little changes throughout the last decades. Considering the substantial improvements in the development of phylogenetic methodology that have undergone in recent years, resulting, among others, in numerous alterations in the phylogenetic hypotheses of other fossil amniotes, we test the robustness in our understanding of mosasauroid beginnings and their evolutionary history. We re-examined a data set that results from modifications assembled in the course of the last 20 years and performed multiple parsimony analyses and Bayesian tip-dating analysis. Following the inferred topologies and the 'weak spots' in the phylogeny of mosasauroids, we revise the nomenclature of the 'traditionally' recognized mosasauroid clades, to acknowledge the overall weakness among branches and the alternative topologies suggested previously, and discuss several factors that might have an impact on the differing phylogenetic hypotheses and their statistical support.

A Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert M.; Rodriguez, Daniel Taylor

2012-01-01

1. A Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data containing covariates of species occurrence and species detection probabilities is usually completed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in conjunction with software programs that can implement those methods for any statistical model, not just site-occupancy models. Although these software programs are quite flexible, considerable experience is often required to specify a model and to initialize the Markov chain so that summaries of the posterior distribution can be estimated efficiently and accurately. 2. As an alternative to these programs, we develop a Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data that include covariates of species occurrence and species detection probabilities. This Gibbs sampler is based on a class of site-occupancy models in which probabilities of species occurrence and detection are specified as probit-regression functions of site- and survey-specific covariate measurements. 3. To illustrate the Gibbs sampler, we analyse site-occupancy data of the blue hawker, Aeshna cyanea (Odonata, Aeshnidae), a common dragonfly species in Switzerland. Our analysis includes a comparison of results based on Bayesian and classical (non-Bayesian) methods of inference. We also provide code (based on the R software program) for conducting Bayesian and classical analyses of site-occupancy data.

Bayesian molecular dating: opening up the black box.

PubMed

Bromham, Lindell; Duchêne, Sebastián; Hua, Xia; Ritchie, Andrew M; Duchêne, David A; Ho, Simon Y W

2018-05-01

Molecular dating analyses allow evolutionary timescales to be estimated from genetic data, offering an unprecedented capacity for investigating the evolutionary past of all species. These methods require us to make assumptions about the relationship between genetic change and evolutionary time, often referred to as a 'molecular clock'. Although initially regarded with scepticism, molecular dating has now been adopted in many areas of biology. This broad uptake has been due partly to the development of Bayesian methods that allow complex aspects of molecular evolution, such as variation in rates of change across lineages, to be taken into account. But in order to do this, Bayesian dating methods rely on a range of assumptions about the evolutionary process, which vary in their degree of biological realism and empirical support. These assumptions can have substantial impacts on the estimates produced by molecular dating analyses. The aim of this review is to open the 'black box' of Bayesian molecular dating and have a look at the machinery inside. We explain the components of these dating methods, the important decisions that researchers must make in their analyses, and the factors that need to be considered when interpreting results. We illustrate the effects that the choices of different models and priors can have on the outcome of the analysis, and suggest ways to explore these impacts. We describe some major research directions that may improve the reliability of Bayesian dating. The goal of our review is to help researchers to make informed choices when using Bayesian phylogenetic methods to estimate evolutionary rates and timescales. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Among-character rate variation distributions in phylogenetic analysis of discrete morphological characters.

PubMed

Harrison, Luke B; Larsson, Hans C E

2015-03-01

Likelihood-based methods are commonplace in phylogenetic systematics. Although much effort has been directed toward likelihood-based models for molecular data, comparatively less work has addressed models for discrete morphological character (DMC) data. Among-character rate variation (ACRV) may confound phylogenetic analysis, but there have been few analyses of the magnitude and distribution of rate heterogeneity among DMCs. Using 76 data sets covering a range of plants, invertebrate, and vertebrate animals, we used a modified version of MrBayes to test equal, gamma-distributed and lognormally distributed models of ACRV, integrating across phylogenetic uncertainty using Bayesian model selection. We found that in approximately 80% of data sets, unequal-rates models outperformed equal-rates models, especially among larger data sets. Moreover, although most data sets were equivocal, more data sets favored the lognormal rate distribution relative to the gamma rate distribution, lending some support for more complex character correlations than in molecular data. Parsimony estimation of the underlying rate distributions in several data sets suggests that the lognormal distribution is preferred when there are many slowly evolving characters and fewer quickly evolving characters. The commonly adopted four rate category discrete approximation used for molecular data was found to be sufficient to approximate a gamma rate distribution with discrete characters. However, among the two data sets tested that favored a lognormal rate distribution, the continuous distribution was better approximated with at least eight discrete rate categories. Although the effect of rate model on the estimation of topology was difficult to assess across all data sets, it appeared relatively minor between the unequal-rates models for the one data set examined carefully. As in molecular analyses, we argue that researchers should test and adopt the most appropriate model of rate variation for the

Model-based Bayesian inference for ROC data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Tianhu; Bae, K. Ty

2013-03-01

This paper presents a study of model-based Bayesian inference to Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) data. The model is a simple version of general non-linear regression model. Different from Dorfman model, it uses a probit link function with a covariate variable having zero-one two values to express binormal distributions in a single formula. Model also includes a scale parameter. Bayesian inference is implemented by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method carried out by Bayesian analysis Using Gibbs Sampling (BUGS). Contrast to the classical statistical theory, Bayesian approach considers model parameters as random variables characterized by prior distributions. With substantial amount of simulated samples generated by sampling algorithm, posterior distributions of parameters as well as parameters themselves can be accurately estimated. MCMC-based BUGS adopts Adaptive Rejection Sampling (ARS) protocol which requires the probability density function (pdf) which samples are drawing from be log concave with respect to the targeted parameters. Our study corrects a common misconception and proves that pdf of this regression model is log concave with respect to its scale parameter. Therefore, ARS's requirement is satisfied and a Gaussian prior which is conjugate and possesses many analytic and computational advantages is assigned to the scale parameter. A cohort of 20 simulated data sets and 20 simulations from each data set are used in our study. Output analysis and convergence diagnostics for MCMC method are assessed by CODA package. Models and methods by using continuous Gaussian prior and discrete categorical prior are compared. Intensive simulations and performance measures are given to illustrate our practice in the framework of model-based Bayesian inference using MCMC method.

Phylogenetic analysis of molecular and morphological data highlights uncertainty in the relationships of fossil and living species of Elopomorpha (Actinopterygii: Teleostei).

PubMed

Dornburg, Alex; Friedman, Matt; Near, Thomas J

2015-08-01

Elopomorpha is one of the three main clades of living teleost fishes and includes a range of disparate lineages including eels, tarpons, bonefishes, and halosaurs. Elopomorphs were among the first groups of fishes investigated using Hennigian phylogenetic methods and continue to be the object of intense phylogenetic scrutiny due to their economic significance, diversity, and crucial evolutionary status as the sister group of all other teleosts. While portions of the phylogenetic backbone for Elopomorpha are consistent between studies, the relationships among Albula, Pterothrissus, Notacanthiformes, and Anguilliformes remain contentious and difficult to evaluate. This lack of phylogenetic resolution is problematic as fossil lineages are often described and placed taxonomically based on an assumed sister group relationship between Albula and Pterothrissus. In addition, phylogenetic studies using morphological data that sample elopomorph fossil lineages often do not include notacanthiform or anguilliform lineages, potentially introducing a bias toward interpreting fossils as members of the common stem of Pterothrissus and Albula. Here we provide a phylogenetic analysis of DNA sequences sampled from multiple nuclear genes that include representative taxa from Albula, Pterothrissus, Notacanthiformes and Anguilliformes. We integrate our molecular dataset with a morphological character matrix that spans both living and fossil elopomorph lineages. Our results reveal substantial uncertainty in the placement of Pterothrissus as well as all sampled fossil lineages, questioning the stability of the taxonomy of fossil Elopomorpha. However, despite topological uncertainty, our integration of fossil lineages into a Bayesian time calibrated framework provides divergence time estimates for the clade that are consistent with previously published age estimates based on the elopomorph fossil record and molecular estimates resulting from traditional node-dating methods. Copyright �

Applying phylogenetic analysis to viral livestock diseases: moving beyond molecular typing.

PubMed

Olvera, Alex; Busquets, Núria; Cortey, Marti; de Deus, Nilsa; Ganges, Llilianne; Núñez, José Ignacio; Peralta, Bibiana; Toskano, Jennifer; Dolz, Roser

2010-05-01

Changes in livestock production systems in recent years have altered the presentation of many diseases resulting in the need for more sophisticated control measures. At the same time, new molecular assays have been developed to support the diagnosis of animal viral disease. Nucleotide sequences generated by these diagnostic techniques can be used in phylogenetic analysis to infer phenotypes by sequence homology and to perform molecular epidemiology studies. In this review, some key elements of phylogenetic analysis are highlighted, such as the selection of the appropriate neutral phylogenetic marker, the proper phylogenetic method and different techniques to test the reliability of the resulting tree. Examples are given of current and future applications of phylogenetic reconstructions in viral livestock diseases. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phylogenetic Information Content of Copepoda Ribosomal DNA Repeat Units: ITS1 and ITS2 Impact

PubMed Central

Zagoskin, Maxim V.; Lazareva, Valentina I.; Grishanin, Andrey K.; Mukha, Dmitry V.

2014-01-01

The utility of various regions of the ribosomal repeat unit for phylogenetic analysis was examined in 16 species representing four families, nine genera, and two orders of the subclass Copepoda (Crustacea). Fragments approximately 2000 bp in length containing the ribosomal DNA (rDNA) 18S and 28S gene fragments, the 5.8S gene, and the internal transcribed spacer regions I and II (ITS1 and ITS2) were amplified and analyzed. The DAMBE (Data Analysis in Molecular Biology and Evolution) software was used to analyze the saturation of nucleotide substitutions; this test revealed the suitability of both the 28S gene fragment and the ITS1/ITS2 rDNA regions for the reconstruction of phylogenetic trees. Distance (minimum evolution) and probabilistic (maximum likelihood, Bayesian) analyses of the data revealed that the 28S rDNA and the ITS1 and ITS2 regions are informative markers for inferring phylogenetic relationships among families of copepods and within the Cyclopidae family and associated genera. Split-graph analysis of concatenated ITS1/ITS2 rDNA regions of cyclopoid copepods suggested that the Mesocyclops, Thermocyclops, and Macrocyclops genera share complex evolutionary relationships. This study revealed that the ITS1 and ITS2 regions potentially represent different phylogenetic signals. PMID:25215300

Inferences of biogeographical histories within subfamily Hyacinthoideae using S-DIVA and Bayesian binary MCMC analysis implemented in RASP (Reconstruct Ancestral State in Phylogenies)

PubMed Central

Ali, Syed Shujait; Yu, Yan; Pfosser, Martin; Wetschnig, Wolfgang

2012-01-01

Background and Aims Subfamily Hyacinthoideae (Hyacinthaceae) comprises more than 400 species. Members are distributed in sub-Saharan Africa, Madagascar, India, eastern Asia, the Mediterranean region and Eurasia. Hyacinthoideae, like many other plant lineages, show disjunct distribution patterns. The aim of this study was to reconstruct the biogeographical history of Hyacinthoideae based on phylogenetic analyses, to find the possible ancestral range of Hyacinthoideae and to identify factors responsible for the current disjunct distribution pattern. Methods Parsimony and Bayesian approaches were applied to obtain phylogenetic trees, based on sequences of the trnL-F region. Biogeographical inferences were obtained by applying statistical dispersal-vicariance analysis (S-DIVA) and Bayesian binary MCMC (BBM) analysis implemented in RASP (Reconstruct Ancestral State in Phylogenies). Key Results S-DIVA and BBM analyses suggest that the Hyacinthoideae clade seem to have originated in sub-Saharan Africa. Dispersal and vicariance played vital roles in creating the disjunct distribution pattern. Results also suggest an early dispersal to the Mediterranean region, and thus the northward route (from sub-Saharan Africa to Mediterranean) of dispersal is plausible for members of subfamily Hyacinthoideae. Conclusions Biogeographical analyses reveal that subfamily Hyacinthoideae has originated in sub-Saharan Africa. S-DIVA indicates an early dispersal event to the Mediterranean region followed by a vicariance event, which resulted in Hyacintheae and Massonieae tribes. By contrast, BBM analysis favours dispersal to the Mediterranean region, eastern Asia and Europe. Biogeographical analysis suggests that sub-Saharan Africa and the Mediterranean region have played vital roles as centres of diversification and radiation within subfamily Hyacinthoideae. In this bimodal distribution pattern, sub-Saharan Africa is the primary centre of diversity and the Mediterranean region is the

BCM: toolkit for Bayesian analysis of Computational Models using samplers.

PubMed

Thijssen, Bram; Dijkstra, Tjeerd M H; Heskes, Tom; Wessels, Lodewyk F A

2016-10-21

Computational models in biology are characterized by a large degree of uncertainty. This uncertainty can be analyzed with Bayesian statistics, however, the sampling algorithms that are frequently used for calculating Bayesian statistical estimates are computationally demanding, and each algorithm has unique advantages and disadvantages. It is typically unclear, before starting an analysis, which algorithm will perform well on a given computational model. We present BCM, a toolkit for the Bayesian analysis of Computational Models using samplers. It provides efficient, multithreaded implementations of eleven algorithms for sampling from posterior probability distributions and for calculating marginal likelihoods. BCM includes tools to simplify the process of model specification and scripts for visualizing the results. The flexible architecture allows it to be used on diverse types of biological computational models. In an example inference task using a model of the cell cycle based on ordinary differential equations, BCM is significantly more efficient than existing software packages, allowing more challenging inference problems to be solved. BCM represents an efficient one-stop-shop for computational modelers wishing to use sampler-based Bayesian statistics.

Phylogenetic analysis of HSP70 and cyt b gene sequences for Chinese Leishmania isolates and ultrastructural characteristics of Chinese Leishmania sp.

PubMed

Yuan, Dongmei; Qin, Hanxiao; Zhang, Jianguo; Liao, Lin; Chen, Qiwei; Chen, Dali; Chen, Jianping

2017-02-01

Leishmaniasis is a worldwide epidemic disease caused by the genus Leishmania, which is still endemic in the west and northwest areas of China. Some viewpoints of the traditional taxonomy of Chinese Leishmania have been challenged by recent phylogenetic researches based on different molecular markers. However, the taxonomic positions and phylogenetic relationships of Chinese Leishmania isolates remain controversial, which need for more data and further analysis. In this study, the heat shock protein 70 (HSP70) gene and cytochrome b (cyt b) gene were used for phylogenetic analysis of Chinese Leishmania isolates from patients, dogs, gerbils, and sand flies in different geographic origins. Besides, for the interesting Leishmania sp. in China, the ultrastructure of three Chinese Leishmania sp. strains (MHOM/CN/90/SC10H2, SD, GL) were observed by transmission electron microscopy. Bayesian trees from HSP70 and cyt b congruently indicated that the 14 Chinese Leishmania isolates belong to three Leishmania species including L. donovani complex, L. gerbilli, and L. (Sauroleishmania) sp. Their identity further confirmed that the undescribed Leishmania species causing visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) in China is closely related to L. tarentolae. The phylogenetic results from HSP70 also suggested the classification of subspecies within L. donovani complex: KXG-918, KXG-927, KXG-Liu, KXG-Xu, 9044, SC6, and KXG-65 belong to L. donovani; Cy, WenChuan, and 801 were proposed to be L. infantum. Through transmission electron microscopy, unexpectedly, the Golgi apparatus were not observed in SC10H2, SD, and GL, which was similar to previous reports of reptilian Leishmania. The statistical analysis of microtubule counts separated SC10H2, SD, and GL as one group from any other reference strain (L. donovani MHOM/IN/80/DD8; L. tropica MHOM/SU/74/K27; L. gerbilli MRHO/CN/60/GERBILLI). The ultrastructural characteristics of Leishmania sp. partly lend support to the phylogenetic inference that

Genetic variation and phylogenetic relationship analysis of Jatropha curcas L. inferred from nrDNA ITS sequences.

PubMed

Guo, Guo-Ye; Chen, Fang; Shi, Xiao-Dong; Tian, Yin-Shuai; Yu, Mao-Qun; Han, Xue-Qin; Yuan, Li-Chun; Zhang, Ying

2016-01-01

Genetic variation and phylogenetic relationships among 102 Jatropha curcas accessions from Asia, Africa, and the Americas were assessed using the internal transcribed spacer region of nuclear ribosomal DNA (nrDNA ITS). The average G+C content (65.04%) was considerably higher than the A+T (34.96%) content. The estimated genetic diversity revealed moderate genetic variation. The pairwise genetic divergences (GD) between haplotypes were evaluated and ranged from 0.000 to 0.017, suggesting a higher level of genetic differentiation in Mexican accessions than those of other regions. Phylogenetic relationships and intraspecific divergence were inferred by Bayesian inference (BI), maximum parsimony (MP), and median joining (MJ) network analysis and were generally resolved. The J. curcas accessions were consistently divided into three lineages, groups A, B, and C, which demonstrated distant geographical isolation and genetic divergence between American accessions and those from other regions. The MJ network analysis confirmed that Central America was the possible center of origin. The putative migration route suggested that J. curcas was distributed from Mexico or Brazil, via Cape Verde and then split into two routes. One route was dispersed to Spain, then migrated to China, eventually spreading to southeastern Asia, while the other route was dispersed to Africa, via Madagascar and migrated to China, later spreading to southeastern Asia. Copyright © 2016 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Bayesian data analysis in observational comparative effectiveness research: rationale and examples.

PubMed

Olson, William H; Crivera, Concetta; Ma, Yi-Wen; Panish, Jessica; Mao, Lian; Lynch, Scott M

2013-11-01

Many comparative effectiveness research and patient-centered outcomes research studies will need to be observational for one or both of two reasons: first, randomized trials are expensive and time-consuming; and second, only observational studies can answer some research questions. It is generally recognized that there is a need to increase the scientific validity and efficiency of observational studies. Bayesian methods for the design and analysis of observational studies are scientifically valid and offer many advantages over frequentist methods, including, importantly, the ability to conduct comparative effectiveness research/patient-centered outcomes research more efficiently. Bayesian data analysis is being introduced into outcomes studies that we are conducting. Our purpose here is to describe our view of some of the advantages of Bayesian methods for observational studies and to illustrate both realized and potential advantages by describing studies we are conducting in which various Bayesian methods have been or could be implemented.

BEASTling: A software tool for linguistic phylogenetics using BEAST 2.

PubMed

Maurits, Luke; Forkel, Robert; Kaiping, Gereon A; Atkinson, Quentin D

2017-01-01

We present a new open source software tool called BEASTling, designed to simplify the preparation of Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of linguistic data using the BEAST 2 platform. BEASTling transforms comparatively short and human-readable configuration files into the XML files used by BEAST to specify analyses. By taking advantage of Creative Commons-licensed data from the Glottolog language catalog, BEASTling allows the user to conveniently filter datasets using names for recognised language families, to impose monophyly constraints so that inferred language trees are backward compatible with Glottolog classifications, or to assign geographic location data to languages for phylogeographic analyses. Support for the emerging cross-linguistic linked data format (CLDF) permits easy incorporation of data published in cross-linguistic linked databases into analyses. BEASTling is intended to make the power of Bayesian analysis more accessible to historical linguists without strong programming backgrounds, in the hopes of encouraging communication and collaboration between those developing computational models of language evolution (who are typically not linguists) and relevant domain experts.

A Bayesian phylogenetic approach to estimating the stability of linguistic features and the genetic biasing of tone.

PubMed

Dediu, Dan

2011-02-07

Language is a hallmark of our species and understanding linguistic diversity is an area of major interest. Genetic factors influencing the cultural transmission of language provide a powerful and elegant explanation for aspects of the present day linguistic diversity and a window into the emergence and evolution of language. In particular, it has recently been proposed that linguistic tone-the usage of voice pitch to convey lexical and grammatical meaning-is biased by two genes involved in brain growth and development, ASPM and Microcephalin. This hypothesis predicts that tone is a stable characteristic of language because of its 'genetic anchoring'. The present paper tests this prediction using a Bayesian phylogenetic framework applied to a large set of linguistic features and language families, using multiple software implementations, data codings, stability estimations, linguistic classifications and outgroup choices. The results of these different methods and datasets show a large agreement, suggesting that this approach produces reliable estimates of the stability of linguistic data. Moreover, linguistic tone is found to be stable across methods and datasets, providing suggestive support for the hypothesis of genetic influences on its distribution.

Phylogenetic relationships, diversification and expansion of chili peppers (Capsicum, Solanaceae).

PubMed

Carrizo García, Carolina; Barfuss, Michael H J; Sehr, Eva M; Barboza, Gloria E; Samuel, Rosabelle; Moscone, Eduardo A; Ehrendorfer, Friedrich

2016-07-01

Capsicum (Solanaceae), native to the tropical and temperate Americas, comprises the well-known sweet and hot chili peppers and several wild species. So far, only partial taxonomic and phylogenetic analyses have been done for the genus. Here, the phylogenetic relationships between nearly all taxa of Capsicum were explored to test the monophyly of the genus and to obtain a better knowledge of species relationships, diversification and expansion. Thirty-four of approximately 35 Capsicum species were sampled. Maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference analyses were performed using two plastid markers (matK and psbA-trnH) and one single-copy nuclear gene (waxy). The evolutionary changes of nine key features were reconstructed following the parsimony ancestral states method. Ancestral areas were reconstructed through a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis. Capsicum forms a monophyletic clade, with Lycianthes as a sister group, following both phylogenetic approaches. Eleven well-supported clades (four of them monotypic) can be recognized within Capsicum, although some interspecific relationships need further analysis. A few features are useful to characterize different clades (e.g. fruit anatomy, chromosome base number), whereas some others are highly homoplastic (e.g. seed colour). The origin of Capsicum is postulated in an area along the Andes of western to north-western South America. The expansion of the genus has followed a clockwise direction around the Amazon basin, towards central and south-eastern Brazil, then back to western South America, and finally northwards to Central America. New insights are provided regarding interspecific relationships, character evolution, and geographical origin and expansion of Capsicum A clearly distinct early-diverging clade can be distinguished, centred in western-north-western South America. Subsequent rapid speciation has led to the origin of the remaining clades. The diversification of Capsicum has culminated in the origin

Phylogenetic relationships, diversification and expansion of chili peppers (Capsicum, Solanaceae)

PubMed Central

Carrizo García, Carolina; Barfuss, Michael H. J.; Sehr, Eva M.; Barboza, Gloria E.; Samuel, Rosabelle; Moscone, Eduardo A.; Ehrendorfer, Friedrich

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Capsicum (Solanaceae), native to the tropical and temperate Americas, comprises the well-known sweet and hot chili peppers and several wild species. So far, only partial taxonomic and phylogenetic analyses have been done for the genus. Here, the phylogenetic relationships between nearly all taxa of Capsicum were explored to test the monophyly of the genus and to obtain a better knowledge of species relationships, diversification and expansion. Methods Thirty-four of approximately 35 Capsicum species were sampled. Maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference analyses were performed using two plastid markers (matK and psbA-trnH) and one single-copy nuclear gene (waxy). The evolutionary changes of nine key features were reconstructed following the parsimony ancestral states method. Ancestral areas were reconstructed through a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis. Key Results Capsicum forms a monophyletic clade, with Lycianthes as a sister group, following both phylogenetic approaches. Eleven well-supported clades (four of them monotypic) can be recognized within Capsicum, although some interspecific relationships need further analysis. A few features are useful to characterize different clades (e.g. fruit anatomy, chromosome base number), whereas some others are highly homoplastic (e.g. seed colour). The origin of Capsicum is postulated in an area along the Andes of western to north-western South America. The expansion of the genus has followed a clockwise direction around the Amazon basin, towards central and south-eastern Brazil, then back to western South America, and finally northwards to Central America. Conclusions New insights are provided regarding interspecific relationships, character evolution, and geographical origin and expansion of Capsicum. A clearly distinct early-diverging clade can be distinguished, centred in western–north-western South America. Subsequent rapid speciation has led to the origin of the remaining clades. The

Prior Elicitation and Bayesian Analysis of the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial

PubMed Central

See, Craig W.; Srinivasan, Muthiah; Saravanan, Somu; Oldenburg, Catherine E.; Esterberg, Elizabeth J.; Ray, Kathryn J.; Glaser, Tanya S.; Tu, Elmer Y.; Zegans, Michael E.; McLeod, Stephen D.; Acharya, Nisha R.; Lietman, Thomas M.

2013-01-01

Purpose To elicit expert opinion on the use of adjunctive corticosteroid therapy in bacterial corneal ulcers. To perform a Bayesian analysis of the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial (SCUT), using expert opinion as a prior probability. Methods The SCUT was a placebo-controlled trial assessing visual outcomes in patients receiving topical corticosteroids or placebo as adjunctive therapy for bacterial keratitis. Questionnaires were conducted at scientific meetings in India and North America to gauge expert consensus on the perceived benefit of corticosteroids as adjunct treatment. Bayesian analysis, using the questionnaire data as a prior probability and the primary outcome of SCUT as a likelihood, was performed. For comparison, an additional Bayesian analysis was performed using the results of the SCUT pilot study as a prior distribution. Results Indian respondents believed there to be a 1.21 Snellen line improvement, and North American respondents believed there to be a 1.24 line improvement with corticosteroid therapy. The SCUT primary outcome found a non-significant 0.09 Snellen line benefit with corticosteroid treatment. The results of the Bayesian analysis estimated a slightly greater benefit than did the SCUT primary analysis (0.19 lines verses 0.09 lines). Conclusion Indian and North American experts had similar expectations on the effectiveness of corticosteroids in bacterial corneal ulcers; that corticosteroids would markedly improve visual outcomes. Bayesian analysis produced results very similar to those produced by the SCUT primary analysis. The similarity in result is likely due to the large sample size of SCUT and helps validate the results of SCUT. PMID:23171211

Prior elicitation and Bayesian analysis of the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial.

PubMed

See, Craig W; Srinivasan, Muthiah; Saravanan, Somu; Oldenburg, Catherine E; Esterberg, Elizabeth J; Ray, Kathryn J; Glaser, Tanya S; Tu, Elmer Y; Zegans, Michael E; McLeod, Stephen D; Acharya, Nisha R; Lietman, Thomas M

2012-12-01

To elicit expert opinion on the use of adjunctive corticosteroid therapy in bacterial corneal ulcers. To perform a Bayesian analysis of the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial (SCUT), using expert opinion as a prior probability. The SCUT was a placebo-controlled trial assessing visual outcomes in patients receiving topical corticosteroids or placebo as adjunctive therapy for bacterial keratitis. Questionnaires were conducted at scientific meetings in India and North America to gauge expert consensus on the perceived benefit of corticosteroids as adjunct treatment. Bayesian analysis, using the questionnaire data as a prior probability and the primary outcome of SCUT as a likelihood, was performed. For comparison, an additional Bayesian analysis was performed using the results of the SCUT pilot study as a prior distribution. Indian respondents believed there to be a 1.21 Snellen line improvement, and North American respondents believed there to be a 1.24 line improvement with corticosteroid therapy. The SCUT primary outcome found a non-significant 0.09 Snellen line benefit with corticosteroid treatment. The results of the Bayesian analysis estimated a slightly greater benefit than did the SCUT primary analysis (0.19 lines verses 0.09 lines). Indian and North American experts had similar expectations on the effectiveness of corticosteroids in bacterial corneal ulcers; that corticosteroids would markedly improve visual outcomes. Bayesian analysis produced results very similar to those produced by the SCUT primary analysis. The similarity in result is likely due to the large sample size of SCUT and helps validate the results of SCUT.

Inferring ‘weak spots’ in phylogenetic trees: application to mosasauroid nomenclature

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Mosasauroid squamates represented the apex predators within the Late Cretaceous marine and occasionally also freshwater ecosystems. Proper understanding of the origin of their ecological adaptations or paleobiogeographic dispersals requires adequate knowledge of their phylogeny. The studies assessing the position of mosasauroids on the squamate evolutionary tree and their origins have long given conflicting results. The phylogenetic relationships within Mosasauroidea, however, have experienced only little changes throughout the last decades. Considering the substantial improvements in the development of phylogenetic methodology that have undergone in recent years, resulting, among others, in numerous alterations in the phylogenetic hypotheses of other fossil amniotes, we test the robustness in our understanding of mosasauroid beginnings and their evolutionary history. We re-examined a data set that results from modifications assembled in the course of the last 20 years and performed multiple parsimony analyses and Bayesian tip-dating analysis. Following the inferred topologies and the ‘weak spots’ in the phylogeny of mosasauroids, we revise the nomenclature of the ‘traditionally’ recognized mosasauroid clades, to acknowledge the overall weakness among branches and the alternative topologies suggested previously, and discuss several factors that might have an impact on the differing phylogenetic hypotheses and their statistical support. PMID:28929018

A Deliberate Practice Approach to Teaching Phylogenetic Analysis

PubMed Central

Hobbs, F. Collin; Johnson, Daniel J.; Kearns, Katherine D.

2013-01-01

One goal of postsecondary education is to assist students in developing expert-level understanding. Previous attempts to encourage expert-level understanding of phylogenetic analysis in college science classrooms have largely focused on isolated, or “one-shot,” in-class activities. Using a deliberate practice instructional approach, we designed a set of five assignments for a 300-level plant systematics course that incrementally introduces the concepts and skills used in phylogenetic analysis. In our assignments, students learned the process of constructing phylogenetic trees through a series of increasingly difficult tasks; thus, skill development served as a framework for building content knowledge. We present results from 5 yr of final exam scores, pre- and postconcept assessments, and student surveys to assess the impact of our new pedagogical materials on student performance related to constructing and interpreting phylogenetic trees. Students improved in their ability to interpret relationships within trees and improved in several aspects related to between-tree comparisons and tree construction skills. Student feedback indicated that most students believed our approach prepared them to engage in tree construction and gave them confidence in their abilities. Overall, our data confirm that instructional approaches implementing deliberate practice address student misconceptions, improve student experiences, and foster deeper understanding of difficult scientific concepts. PMID:24297294

Phylogenetic analysis in Myrcia section Aulomyrcia and inferences on plant diversity in the Atlantic rainforest

PubMed Central

Staggemeier, Vanessa Graziele; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola; Forest, Félix; Lucas, Eve

2015-01-01

Background and Aims Myrcia section Aulomyrcia includes ∼120 species that are endemic to the Neotropics and disjunctly distributed in the moist Amazon and Atlantic coastal forests of Brazil. This paper presents the first comprehensive phylogenetic study of this group and this phylogeny is used as a basis to evaluate recent classification systems and to test alternative hypotheses associated with the history of this clade. Methods Fifty-three taxa were sampled out of the 120 species currently recognized, plus 40 outgroup taxa, for one nuclear marker (ribosomal internal transcribed spacer) and four plastid markers (psbA-trnH, trnL-trnF, trnQ-rpS16 and ndhF). The relationships were reconstructed based on Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses. Additionally, a likelihood approach, ‘geographic state speciation and extinction’, was used to estimate region- dependent rates of speciation, extinction and dispersal, comparing historically climatic stable areas (refugia) and unstable areas. Key Results Maximum likelihood and Bayesian inferences indicate that Myrcia and Marlierea are polyphyletic, and the internal groupings recovered are characterized by combinations of morphological characters. Phylogenetic relationships support a link between Amazonian and north-eastern species and between north-eastern and south-eastern species. Lower extinction rates within glacial refugia suggest that these areas were important in maintaining diversity in the Atlantic forest biodiversity hotspot. Conclusions This study provides a robust phylogenetic framework to address important ecological questions for Myrcia s.l. within an evolutionary context, and supports the need to unite taxonomically the two traditional genera Myrcia and Marlierea in an expanded Myrcia s.l. Furthermore, this study offers valuable insights into the diversification of plant species in the highly impacted Atlantic forest of South America; evidence is presented that the lowest extinction rates are found inside

Phylogenetic analysis in Myrcia section Aulomyrcia and inferences on plant diversity in the Atlantic rainforest.

PubMed

Staggemeier, Vanessa Graziele; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola; Forest, Félix; Lucas, Eve

2015-04-01

Myrcia section Aulomyrcia includes ∼120 species that are endemic to the Neotropics and disjunctly distributed in the moist Amazon and Atlantic coastal forests of Brazil. This paper presents the first comprehensive phylogenetic study of this group and this phylogeny is used as a basis to evaluate recent classification systems and to test alternative hypotheses associated with the history of this clade. Fifty-three taxa were sampled out of the 120 species currently recognized, plus 40 outgroup taxa, for one nuclear marker (ribosomal internal transcribed spacer) and four plastid markers (psbA-trnH, trnL-trnF, trnQ-rpS16 and ndhF). The relationships were reconstructed based on Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses. Additionally, a likelihood approach, 'geographic state speciation and extinction', was used to estimate region- dependent rates of speciation, extinction and dispersal, comparing historically climatic stable areas (refugia) and unstable areas. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian inferences indicate that Myrcia and Marlierea are polyphyletic, and the internal groupings recovered are characterized by combinations of morphological characters. Phylogenetic relationships support a link between Amazonian and north-eastern species and between north-eastern and south-eastern species. Lower extinction rates within glacial refugia suggest that these areas were important in maintaining diversity in the Atlantic forest biodiversity hotspot. This study provides a robust phylogenetic framework to address important ecological questions for Myrcia s.l. within an evolutionary context, and supports the need to unite taxonomically the two traditional genera Myrcia and Marlierea in an expanded Myrcia s.l. Furthermore, this study offers valuable insights into the diversification of plant species in the highly impacted Atlantic forest of South America; evidence is presented that the lowest extinction rates are found inside refugia and that range expansion from unstable areas

Phylogeny and Bayesian divergence time estimations of small-headed flies (Diptera: Acroceridae) using multiple molecular markers.

PubMed

Winterton, Shaun L; Wiegmann, Brian M; Schlinger, Evert I

2007-06-01

The first formal analysis of phylogenetic relationships among small-headed flies (Acroceridae) is presented based on DNA sequence data from two ribosomal (16S and 28S) and two protein-encoding genes: carbomoylphosphate synthase (CPS) domain of CAD (i.e., rudimentary locus) and cytochrome oxidase I (COI). DNA sequences from 40 species in 22 genera of Acroceridae (representing all three subfamilies) were compared with outgroup exemplars from Nemestrinidae, Stratiomyidae, Tabanidae, and Xylophagidae. Parsimony and Bayesian simultaneous analyses of the full data set recover a well-resolved and strongly supported hypothesis of phylogenetic relationships for major lineages within the family. Molecular evidence supports the monophyly of traditionally recognised subfamilies Philopotinae and Panopinae, but Acrocerinae are polyphyletic. Panopinae, sometimes considered "primitive" based on morphology and host-use, are always placed in a more derived position in the current study. Furthermore, these data support emerging morphological evidence that the type genus Acrocera Meigen, and its sister genus Sphaerops, are atypical acrocerids, comprising a sister lineage to all other Acroceridae. Based on the phylogeny generated in the simultaneous analysis, historical divergence times were estimated using Bayesian methodology constrained with fossil data. These estimates indicate Acroceridae likely evolved during the late Triassic but did not diversify greatly until the Cretaceous.

Insights into the phylogeny of Northern Hemisphere Armillaria: Neighbor-net and Bayesian analyses of translation elongation factor 1-α gene sequences.

PubMed

Klopfenstein, Ned B; Stewart, Jane E; Ota, Yuko; Hanna, John W; Richardson, Bryce A; Ross-Davis, Amy L; Elías-Román, Rubén D; Korhonen, Kari; Keča, Nenad; Iturritxa, Eugenia; Alvarado-Rosales, Dionicio; Solheim, Halvor; Brazee, Nicholas J; Łakomy, Piotr; Cleary, Michelle R; Hasegawa, Eri; Kikuchi, Taisei; Garza-Ocañas, Fortunato; Tsopelas, Panaghiotis; Rigling, Daniel; Prospero, Simone; Tsykun, Tetyana; Bérubé, Jean A; Stefani, Franck O P; Jafarpour, Saeideh; Antonín, Vladimír; Tomšovský, Michal; McDonald, Geral I; Woodward, Stephen; Kim, Mee-Sook

2017-01-01

Armillaria possesses several intriguing characteristics that have inspired wide interest in understanding phylogenetic relationships within and among species of this genus. Nuclear ribosomal DNA sequence-based analyses of Armillaria provide only limited information for phylogenetic studies among widely divergent taxa. More recent studies have shown that translation elongation factor 1-α (tef1) sequences are highly informative for phylogenetic analysis of Armillaria species within diverse global regions. This study used Neighbor-net and coalescence-based Bayesian analyses to examine phylogenetic relationships of newly determined and existing tef1 sequences derived from diverse Armillaria species from across the Northern Hemisphere, with Southern Hemisphere Armillaria species included for reference. Based on the Bayesian analysis of tef1 sequences, Armillaria species from the Northern Hemisphere are generally contained within the following four superclades, which are named according to the specific epithet of the most frequently cited species within the superclade: (i) Socialis/Tabescens (exannulate) superclade including Eurasian A. ectypa, North American A. socialis (A. tabescens), and Eurasian A. socialis (A. tabescens) clades; (ii) Mellea superclade including undescribed annulate North American Armillaria sp. (Mexico) and four separate clades of A. mellea (Europe and Iran, eastern Asia, and two groups from North America); (iii) Gallica superclade including Armillaria Nag E (Japan), multiple clades of A. gallica (Asia and Europe), A. calvescens (eastern North America), A. cepistipes (North America), A. altimontana (western USA), A. nabsnona (North America and Japan), and at least two A. gallica clades (North America); and (iv) Solidipes/Ostoyae superclade including two A. solidipes/ostoyae clades (North America), A. gemina (eastern USA), A. solidipes/ostoyae (Eurasia), A. cepistipes (Europe and Japan), A. sinapina (North America and Japan), and A. borealis

Phylogenetic relationships and evolutionary history of the Mesoamerican endemic freshwater fish family Profundulidae (Cyprinodontiformes: Actinopterygii).

PubMed

Morcillo, Felipe; Ornelas-García, Claudia Patricia; Alcaraz, Lourdes; Matamoros, Wilfredo A; Doadrio, Ignacio

2016-01-01

Freshwater fishes of Profundulidae, which until now was composed of two subgenera, represent one of the few extant fish families endemic to Mesoamerica. In this study we investigated the phylogenetic relationships and evolutionary history of the eight recognized extant species (from 37 populations) of Profundulidae using three mitochondrial and one nuclear gene markers (∼2.9 Kbp). We applied a Bayesian species delimitation method as a first approach to resolving speciation patterns within Profundulidae considering two different scenarios, eight-species and twelve-species models, obtained in a previous phylogenetic analysis. Based on our results, each of the two subgenera was resolved as monophyletic, with a remarkable molecular divergence of 24.5% for mtDNA and 7.8% for nDNA uncorrected p distances, and thus we propose that they correspond to separate genera. Moreover, we propose a conservative taxonomic hypothesis with five species within Profundulus and three within Tlaloc, although both eight-species and twelve-species models were highly supported by the bayesian species delimitation analysis, providing additional evidence of higher taxonomic diversity than currently recognized in this family. According to our divergence time estimates, the family originated during the Upper Oligocene 26 Mya, and Profundulus and Tlaloc diverged in the Upper Oligocene or Lower Miocene about 20 Mya. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Factor Analysis as a Variable Selection Problem: Alternative Priors and Consequences

PubMed Central

Lu, Zhao-Hua; Chow, Sy-Miin; Loken, Eric

2016-01-01

Factor analysis is a popular statistical technique for multivariate data analysis. Developments in the structural equation modeling framework have enabled the use of hybrid confirmatory/exploratory approaches in which factor loading structures can be explored relatively flexibly within a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) framework. Recently, a Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) approach (Muthén & Asparouhov, 2012) has been proposed as a way to explore the presence of cross-loadings in CFA models. We show that the issue of determining factor loading patterns may be formulated as a Bayesian variable selection problem in which Muthén and Asparouhov’s approach can be regarded as a BSEM approach with ridge regression prior (BSEM-RP). We propose another Bayesian approach, denoted herein as the Bayesian structural equation modeling with spike and slab prior (BSEM-SSP), which serves as a one-stage alternative to the BSEM-RP. We review the theoretical advantages and disadvantages of both approaches and compare their empirical performance relative to two modification indices-based approaches and exploratory factor analysis with target rotation. A teacher stress scale data set (Byrne, 2012; Pettegrew & Wolf, 1982) is used to demonstrate our approach. PMID:27314566

Bayesian data analysis tools for atomic physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trassinelli, Martino

2017-10-01

We present an introduction to some concepts of Bayesian data analysis in the context of atomic physics. Starting from basic rules of probability, we present the Bayes' theorem and its applications. In particular we discuss about how to calculate simple and joint probability distributions and the Bayesian evidence, a model dependent quantity that allows to assign probabilities to different hypotheses from the analysis of a same data set. To give some practical examples, these methods are applied to two concrete cases. In the first example, the presence or not of a satellite line in an atomic spectrum is investigated. In the second example, we determine the most probable model among a set of possible profiles from the analysis of a statistically poor spectrum. We show also how to calculate the probability distribution of the main spectral component without having to determine uniquely the spectrum modeling. For these two studies, we implement the program Nested_fit to calculate the different probability distributions and other related quantities. Nested_fit is a Fortran90/Python code developed during the last years for analysis of atomic spectra. As indicated by the name, it is based on the nested algorithm, which is presented in details together with the program itself.

Phylogenetic Analysis of Nuclear-Encoded RNA Maturases

PubMed Central

Malik, Sunita; Upadhyaya, KC; Khurana, SM Paul

2017-01-01

Posttranscriptional processes, such as splicing, play a crucial role in gene expression and are prevalent not only in nuclear genes but also in plant mitochondria where splicing of group II introns is catalyzed by a class of proteins termed maturases. In plant mitochondria, there are 22 mitochondrial group II introns. matR, nMAT1, nMAT2, nMAT3, and nMAT4 proteins have been shown to be required for efficient splicing of several group II introns in Arabidopsis thaliana. Nuclear maturases (nMATs) are necessary for splicing of mitochondrial genes, leading to normal oxidative phosphorylation. Sequence analysis through phylogenetic tree (including bootstrapping) revealed high homology with maturase sequences of A thaliana and other plants. This study shows the phylogenetic relationship of nMAT proteins between A thaliana and other nonredundant plant species taken from BLASTP analysis. PMID:28607538

CDAO-Store: Ontology-driven Data Integration for Phylogenetic Analysis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The Comparative Data Analysis Ontology (CDAO) is an ontology developed, as part of the EvoInfo and EvoIO groups supported by the National Evolutionary Synthesis Center, to provide semantic descriptions of data and transformations commonly found in the domain of phylogenetic analysis. The core concepts of the ontology enable the description of phylogenetic trees and associated character data matrices. Results Using CDAO as the semantic back-end, we developed a triple-store, named CDAO-Store. CDAO-Store is a RDF-based store of phylogenetic data, including a complete import of TreeBASE. CDAO-Store provides a programmatic interface, in the form of web services, and a web-based front-end, to perform both user-defined as well as domain-specific queries; domain-specific queries include search for nearest common ancestors, minimum spanning clades, filter multiple trees in the store by size, author, taxa, tree identifier, algorithm or method. In addition, CDAO-Store provides a visualization front-end, called CDAO-Explorer, which can be used to view both character data matrices and trees extracted from the CDAO-Store. CDAO-Store provides import capabilities, enabling the addition of new data to the triple-store; files in PHYLIP, MEGA, nexml, and NEXUS formats can be imported and their CDAO representations added to the triple-store. Conclusions CDAO-Store is made up of a versatile and integrated set of tools to support phylogenetic analysis. To the best of our knowledge, CDAO-Store is the first semantically-aware repository of phylogenetic data with domain-specific querying capabilities. The portal to CDAO-Store is available at http://www.cs.nmsu.edu/~cdaostore. PMID:21496247

CDAO-store: ontology-driven data integration for phylogenetic analysis.

PubMed

Chisham, Brandon; Wright, Ben; Le, Trung; Son, Tran Cao; Pontelli, Enrico

2011-04-15

The Comparative Data Analysis Ontology (CDAO) is an ontology developed, as part of the EvoInfo and EvoIO groups supported by the National Evolutionary Synthesis Center, to provide semantic descriptions of data and transformations commonly found in the domain of phylogenetic analysis. The core concepts of the ontology enable the description of phylogenetic trees and associated character data matrices. Using CDAO as the semantic back-end, we developed a triple-store, named CDAO-Store. CDAO-Store is a RDF-based store of phylogenetic data, including a complete import of TreeBASE. CDAO-Store provides a programmatic interface, in the form of web services, and a web-based front-end, to perform both user-defined as well as domain-specific queries; domain-specific queries include search for nearest common ancestors, minimum spanning clades, filter multiple trees in the store by size, author, taxa, tree identifier, algorithm or method. In addition, CDAO-Store provides a visualization front-end, called CDAO-Explorer, which can be used to view both character data matrices and trees extracted from the CDAO-Store. CDAO-Store provides import capabilities, enabling the addition of new data to the triple-store; files in PHYLIP, MEGA, nexml, and NEXUS formats can be imported and their CDAO representations added to the triple-store. CDAO-Store is made up of a versatile and integrated set of tools to support phylogenetic analysis. To the best of our knowledge, CDAO-Store is the first semantically-aware repository of phylogenetic data with domain-specific querying capabilities. The portal to CDAO-Store is available at http://www.cs.nmsu.edu/~cdaostore.

Quantifying MCMC exploration of phylogenetic tree space.

PubMed

Whidden, Chris; Matsen, Frederick A

2015-05-01

In order to gain an understanding of the effectiveness of phylogenetic Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), it is important to understand how quickly the empirical distribution of the MCMC converges to the posterior distribution. In this article, we investigate this problem on phylogenetic tree topologies with a metric that is especially well suited to the task: the subtree prune-and-regraft (SPR) metric. This metric directly corresponds to the minimum number of MCMC rearrangements required to move between trees in common phylogenetic MCMC implementations. We develop a novel graph-based approach to analyze tree posteriors and find that the SPR metric is much more informative than simpler metrics that are unrelated to MCMC moves. In doing so, we show conclusively that topological peaks do occur in Bayesian phylogenetic posteriors from real data sets as sampled with standard MCMC approaches, investigate the efficiency of Metropolis-coupled MCMC (MCMCMC) in traversing the valleys between peaks, and show that conditional clade distribution (CCD) can have systematic problems when there are multiple peaks. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

CytoBayesJ: software tools for Bayesian analysis of cytogenetic radiation dosimetry data.

PubMed

Ainsbury, Elizabeth A; Vinnikov, Volodymyr; Puig, Pedro; Maznyk, Nataliya; Rothkamm, Kai; Lloyd, David C

2013-08-30

A number of authors have suggested that a Bayesian approach may be most appropriate for analysis of cytogenetic radiation dosimetry data. In the Bayesian framework, probability of an event is described in terms of previous expectations and uncertainty. Previously existing, or prior, information is used in combination with experimental results to infer probabilities or the likelihood that a hypothesis is true. It has been shown that the Bayesian approach increases both the accuracy and quality assurance of radiation dose estimates. New software entitled CytoBayesJ has been developed with the aim of bringing Bayesian analysis to cytogenetic biodosimetry laboratory practice. CytoBayesJ takes a number of Bayesian or 'Bayesian like' methods that have been proposed in the literature and presents them to the user in the form of simple user-friendly tools, including testing for the most appropriate model for distribution of chromosome aberrations and calculations of posterior probability distributions. The individual tools are described in detail and relevant examples of the use of the methods and the corresponding CytoBayesJ software tools are given. In this way, the suitability of the Bayesian approach to biological radiation dosimetry is highlighted and its wider application encouraged by providing a user-friendly software interface and manual in English and Russian. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comprehensive probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, C.; Qin, T. X.; Jiang, B.; Huang, C.

2018-02-01

Oil pipelines network is one of the most important facilities of energy transportation. But oil pipelines network accident may result in serious disasters. Some analysis models for these accidents have been established mainly based on three methods, including event-tree, accident simulation and Bayesian network. Among these methods, Bayesian network is suitable for probabilistic analysis. But not all the important influencing factors are considered and the deployment rule of the factors has not been established. This paper proposed a probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network. Most of the important influencing factors, including the key environment condition and emergency response are considered in this model. Moreover, the paper also introduces a deployment rule for these factors. The model can be used in probabilistic analysis and sensitive analysis of oil pipelines network accident.

Investigating Cultural Evolution Using Phylogenetic Analysis: The Origins and Descent of the Southeast Asian Tradition of Warp Ikat Weaving

PubMed Central

Buckley, Christopher D.

2012-01-01

The warp ikat method of making decorated textiles is one of the most geographically widespread in southeast Asia, being used by Austronesian peoples in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, and Daic peoples on the Asian mainland. In this study a dataset consisting of the decorative characters of 36 of these warp ikat weaving traditions is investigated using Bayesian and Neighbornet techniques, and the results are used to construct a phylogenetic tree and taxonomy for warp ikat weaving in southeast Asia. The results and analysis show that these diverse traditions have a common ancestor amongst neolithic cultures the Asian mainland, and parallels exist between the patterns of textile weaving descent and linguistic phylogeny for the Austronesian group. Ancestral state analysis is used to reconstruct some of the features of the ancestral weaving tradition. The widely held theory that weaving motifs originated in the late Bronze Age Dong-Son culture is shown to be inconsistent with the data. PMID:23272211

Phylogenetic comparative methods complement discriminant function analysis in ecomorphology.

PubMed

Barr, W Andrew; Scott, Robert S

2014-04-01

In ecomorphology, Discriminant Function Analysis (DFA) has been used as evidence for the presence of functional links between morphometric variables and ecological categories. Here we conduct simulations of characters containing phylogenetic signal to explore the performance of DFA under a variety of conditions. Characters were simulated using a phylogeny of extant antelope species from known habitats. Characters were modeled with no biomechanical relationship to the habitat category; the only sources of variation were body mass, phylogenetic signal, or random "noise." DFA on the discriminability of habitat categories was performed using subsets of the simulated characters, and Phylogenetic Generalized Least Squares (PGLS) was performed for each character. Analyses were repeated with randomized habitat assignments. When simulated characters lacked phylogenetic signal and/or habitat assignments were random, <5.6% of DFAs and <8.26% of PGLS analyses were significant. When characters contained phylogenetic signal and actual habitats were used, 33.27 to 45.07% of DFAs and <13.09% of PGLS analyses were significant. False Discovery Rate (FDR) corrections for multiple PGLS analyses reduced the rate of significance to <4.64%. In all cases using actual habitats and characters with phylogenetic signal, correct classification rates of DFAs exceeded random chance. In simulations involving phylogenetic signal in both predictor variables and predicted categories, PGLS with FDR was rarely significant, while DFA often was. In short, DFA offered no indication that differences between categories might be explained by phylogenetic signal, while PGLS did. As such, PGLS provides a valuable tool for testing the functional hypotheses at the heart of ecomorphology. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS TO A LAGRANGIAN PHOTOCHEMICAL AIR QUALITY MODEL. (R824792)

EPA Science Inventory

Uncertainties in ozone concentrations predicted with a Lagrangian photochemical air quality model have been estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) analysis. Bayesian Monte Carlo analysis provides a means of combining subjective "prior" uncertainty estimates developed ...

The dawn of open access to phylogenetic data.

PubMed

Magee, Andrew F; May, Michael R; Moore, Brian R

2014-01-01

The scientific enterprise depends critically on the preservation of and open access to published data. This basic tenet applies acutely to phylogenies (estimates of evolutionary relationships among species). Increasingly, phylogenies are estimated from increasingly large, genome-scale datasets using increasingly complex statistical methods that require increasing levels of expertise and computational investment. Moreover, the resulting phylogenetic data provide an explicit historical perspective that critically informs research in a vast and growing number of scientific disciplines. One such use is the study of changes in rates of lineage diversification (speciation--extinction) through time. As part of a meta-analysis in this area, we sought to collect phylogenetic data (comprising nucleotide sequence alignment and tree files) from 217 studies published in 46 journals over a 13-year period. We document our attempts to procure those data (from online archives and by direct request to corresponding authors), and report results of analyses (using Bayesian logistic regression) to assess the impact of various factors on the success of our efforts. Overall, complete phylogenetic data for [Formula: see text] of these studies are effectively lost to science. Our study indicates that phylogenetic data are more likely to be deposited in online archives and/or shared upon request when: (1) the publishing journal has a strong data-sharing policy; (2) the publishing journal has a higher impact factor, and; (3) the data are requested from faculty rather than students. Importantly, our survey spans recent policy initiatives and infrastructural changes; our analyses indicate that the positive impact of these community initiatives has been both dramatic and immediate. Although the results of our study indicate that the situation is dire, our findings also reveal tremendous recent progress in the sharing and preservation of phylogenetic data.

A phylogenetic study of Laeliinae (Orchidaceae) based on combined nuclear and plastid DNA sequences

PubMed Central

van den Berg, Cássio; Higgins, Wesley E.; Dressler, Robert L.; Whitten, W. Mark; Soto-Arenas, Miguel A.; Chase, Mark W.

2009-01-01

Background and Aims Laeliinae are a neotropical orchid subtribe with approx. 1500 species in 50 genera. In this study, an attempt is made to assess generic alliances based on molecular phylogenetic analysis of DNA sequence data. Methods Six DNA datasets were gathered: plastid trnL intron, trnL-F spacer, matK gene and trnK introns upstream and dowstream from matK and nuclear ITS rDNA. Data were analysed with maximum parsimony (MP) and Bayesian analysis with mixed models (BA). Key Results Although relationships between Laeliinae and outgroups are well supported, within the subtribe sequence variation is low considering the broad taxonomic range covered. Localized incongruence between the ITS and plastid trees was found. A combined tree followed the ITS trees more closely, but the levels of support obtained with MP were low. The Bayesian analysis recovered more well-supported nodes. The trees from combined MP and BA allowed eight generic alliances to be recognized within Laeliinae, all of which show trends in morphological characters but lack unambiguous synapomorphies. Conclusions By using combined plastid and nuclear DNA data in conjunction with mixed-models Bayesian inference, it is possible to delimit smaller groups within Laeliinae and discuss general patterns of pollination and hybridization compatibility. Furthermore, these small groups can now be used for further detailed studies to explain morphological evolution and diversification patterns within the subtribe. PMID:19423551

BEASTling: A software tool for linguistic phylogenetics using BEAST 2

PubMed Central

Forkel, Robert; Kaiping, Gereon A.; Atkinson, Quentin D.

2017-01-01

We present a new open source software tool called BEASTling, designed to simplify the preparation of Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of linguistic data using the BEAST 2 platform. BEASTling transforms comparatively short and human-readable configuration files into the XML files used by BEAST to specify analyses. By taking advantage of Creative Commons-licensed data from the Glottolog language catalog, BEASTling allows the user to conveniently filter datasets using names for recognised language families, to impose monophyly constraints so that inferred language trees are backward compatible with Glottolog classifications, or to assign geographic location data to languages for phylogeographic analyses. Support for the emerging cross-linguistic linked data format (CLDF) permits easy incorporation of data published in cross-linguistic linked databases into analyses. BEASTling is intended to make the power of Bayesian analysis more accessible to historical linguists without strong programming backgrounds, in the hopes of encouraging communication and collaboration between those developing computational models of language evolution (who are typically not linguists) and relevant domain experts. PMID:28796784

A phylogenetic analysis of the megadiverse Chalcidoidea (Hymenoptera)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Chalcidoidea (Hymenoptera) are extremely diverse with an estimated 500,000 species. We present the first phylogenetic analysis of the superfamily based on a cladistic analysis of both morphological and molecular data. A total of 233 morphological characters were scored for 300 taxa and 265 genera, a...

A Comprehensive Phylogenetic Analysis of the Scleractinia (Cnidaria, Anthozoa) Based on Mitochondrial CO1 Sequence Data

PubMed Central

Kitahara, Marcelo V.; Cairns, Stephen D.; Stolarski, Jarosław; Blair, David; Miller, David J.

2010-01-01

Background Classical morphological taxonomy places the approximately 1400 recognized species of Scleractinia (hard corals) into 27 families, but many aspects of coral evolution remain unclear despite the application of molecular phylogenetic methods. In part, this may be a consequence of such studies focusing on the reef-building (shallow water and zooxanthellate) Scleractinia, and largely ignoring the large number of deep-sea species. To better understand broad patterns of coral evolution, we generated molecular data for a broad and representative range of deep sea scleractinians collected off New Caledonia and Australia during the last decade, and conducted the most comprehensive molecular phylogenetic analysis to date of the order Scleractinia. Methodology Partial (595 bp) sequences of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (CO1) gene were determined for 65 deep-sea (azooxanthellate) scleractinians and 11 shallow-water species. These new data were aligned with 158 published sequences, generating a 234 taxon dataset representing 25 of the 27 currently recognized scleractinian families. Principal Findings/Conclusions There was a striking discrepancy between the taxonomic validity of coral families consisting predominantly of deep-sea or shallow-water species. Most families composed predominantly of deep-sea azooxanthellate species were monophyletic in both maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses but, by contrast (and consistent with previous studies), most families composed predominantly of shallow-water zooxanthellate taxa were polyphyletic, although Acroporidae, Poritidae, Pocilloporidae, and Fungiidae were exceptions to this general pattern. One factor contributing to this inconsistency may be the greater environmental stability of deep-sea environments, effectively removing taxonomic “noise” contributed by phenotypic plasticity. Our phylogenetic analyses imply that the most basal extant scleractinians are azooxanthellate solitary corals from deep

Phylogenetics.

PubMed

Sleator, Roy D

2011-04-01

The recent rapid expansion in the DNA and protein databases, arising from large-scale genomic and metagenomic sequence projects, has forced significant development in the field of phylogenetics: the study of the evolutionary relatedness of the planet's inhabitants. Advances in phylogenetic analysis have greatly transformed our view of the landscape of evolutionary biology, transcending the view of the tree of life that has shaped evolutionary theory since Darwinian times. Indeed, modern phylogenetic analysis no longer focuses on the restricted Darwinian-Mendelian model of vertical gene transfer, but must also consider the significant degree of lateral gene transfer, which connects and shapes almost all living things. Herein, I review the major tree-building methods, their strengths, weaknesses and future prospects.

Phylogenetic fields through time: temporal dynamics of geographical co-occurrence and phylogenetic structure within species ranges

PubMed Central

Carotenuto, Francesco; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F.

2016-01-01

Species co-occur with different sets of other species across their geographical distribution, which can be either closely or distantly related. Such co-occurrence patterns and their phylogenetic structure within individual species ranges represent what we call the species phylogenetic fields (PFs). These PFs allow investigation of the role of historical processes—speciation, extinction and dispersal—in shaping species co-occurrence patterns, in both extinct and extant species. Here, we investigate PFs of large mammalian species during the last 3 Myr, and how these correlate with trends in diversification rates. Using the fossil record, we evaluate species' distributional and co-occurrence patterns along with their phylogenetic structure. We apply a novel Bayesian framework on fossil occurrences to estimate diversification rates through time. Our findings highlight the effect of evolutionary processes and past climatic changes on species' distributions and co-occurrences. From the Late Pliocene to the Recent, mammal species seem to have responded in an individualistic manner to climate changes and diversification dynamics, co-occurring with different sets of species from different lineages across their geographical ranges. These findings stress the difficulty of forecasting potential effects of future climate changes on biodiversity. PMID:26977061

Phylogenetic fields through time: temporal dynamics of geographical co-occurrence and phylogenetic structure within species ranges.

PubMed

Villalobos, Fabricio; Carotenuto, Francesco; Raia, Pasquale; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F

2016-04-05

Species co-occur with different sets of other species across their geographical distribution, which can be either closely or distantly related. Such co-occurrence patterns and their phylogenetic structure within individual species ranges represent what we call the species phylogenetic fields (PFs). These PFs allow investigation of the role of historical processes--speciation, extinction and dispersal--in shaping species co-occurrence patterns, in both extinct and extant species. Here, we investigate PFs of large mammalian species during the last 3 Myr, and how these correlate with trends in diversification rates. Using the fossil record, we evaluate species' distributional and co-occurrence patterns along with their phylogenetic structure. We apply a novel Bayesian framework on fossil occurrences to estimate diversification rates through time. Our findings highlight the effect of evolutionary processes and past climatic changes on species' distributions and co-occurrences. From the Late Pliocene to the Recent, mammal species seem to have responded in an individualistic manner to climate changes and diversification dynamics, co-occurring with different sets of species from different lineages across their geographical ranges. These findings stress the difficulty of forecasting potential effects of future climate changes on biodiversity. © 2016 The Author(s).

Quantitative trait nucleotide analysis using Bayesian model selection.

PubMed

Blangero, John; Goring, Harald H H; Kent, Jack W; Williams, Jeff T; Peterson, Charles P; Almasy, Laura; Dyer, Thomas D

2005-10-01

Although much attention has been given to statistical genetic methods for the initial localization and fine mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTLs), little methodological work has been done to date on the problem of statistically identifying the most likely functional polymorphisms using sequence data. In this paper we provide a general statistical genetic framework, called Bayesian quantitative trait nucleotide (BQTN) analysis, for assessing the likely functional status of genetic variants. The approach requires the initial enumeration of all genetic variants in a set of resequenced individuals. These polymorphisms are then typed in a large number of individuals (potentially in families), and marker variation is related to quantitative phenotypic variation using Bayesian model selection and averaging. For each sequence variant a posterior probability of effect is obtained and can be used to prioritize additional molecular functional experiments. An example of this quantitative nucleotide analysis is provided using the GAW12 simulated data. The results show that the BQTN method may be useful for choosing the most likely functional variants within a gene (or set of genes). We also include instructions on how to use our computer program, SOLAR, for association analysis and BQTN analysis.

A phylogenetic framework for root lesion nematodes of the genus Pratylenchus (Nematoda): Evidence from 18S and D2-D3 expansion segments of 28S ribosomal RNA genes and morphological characters.

PubMed

Subbotin, Sergei A; Ragsdale, Erik J; Mullens, Teresa; Roberts, Philip A; Mundo-Ocampo, Manuel; Baldwin, James G

2008-08-01

The root lesion nematodes of the genus Pratylenchus Filipjev, 1936 are migratory endoparasites of plant roots, considered among the most widespread and important nematode parasites in a variety of crops. We obtained gene sequences from the D2 and D3 expansion segments of 28S rRNA partial and 18S rRNA from 31 populations belonging to 11 valid and two unidentified species of root lesion nematodes and five outgroup taxa. These datasets were analyzed using maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference. The alignments were generated using the secondary structure models for these molecules and analyzed with Bayesian inference under the standard models and the complex model, considering helices under the doublet model and loops and bulges under the general time reversible model. The phylogenetic informativeness of morphological characters is tested by reconstruction of their histories on rRNA based trees using parallel parsimony and Bayesian approaches. Phylogenetic and sequence analyses of the 28S D2-D3 dataset with 145 accessions for 28 species and 18S dataset with 68 accessions for 15 species confirmed among large numbers of geographical diverse isolates that most classical morphospecies are monophyletic. Phylogenetic analyses revealed at least six distinct major clades of examined Pratylenchus species and these clades are generally congruent with those defined by characters derived from lip patterns, numbers of lip annules, and spermatheca shape. Morphological results suggest the need for sophisticated character discovery and analysis for morphology based phylogenetics in nematodes.

Bayesian dose-response analysis for epidemiological studies with complex uncertainty in dose estimation.

PubMed

Kwon, Deukwoo; Hoffman, F Owen; Moroz, Brian E; Simon, Steven L

2016-02-10

Most conventional risk analysis methods rely on a single best estimate of exposure per person, which does not allow for adjustment for exposure-related uncertainty. Here, we propose a Bayesian model averaging method to properly quantify the relationship between radiation dose and disease outcomes by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainty in estimated dose. Our Bayesian risk analysis method utilizes multiple realizations of sets (vectors) of doses generated by a two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation method that properly separates shared and unshared errors in dose estimation. The exposure model used in this work is taken from a study of the risk of thyroid nodules among a cohort of 2376 subjects who were exposed to fallout from nuclear testing in Kazakhstan. We assessed the performance of our method through an extensive series of simulations and comparisons against conventional regression risk analysis methods. When the estimated doses contain relatively small amounts of uncertainty, the Bayesian method using multiple a priori plausible draws of dose vectors gave similar results to the conventional regression-based methods of dose-response analysis. However, when large and complex mixtures of shared and unshared uncertainties are present, the Bayesian method using multiple dose vectors had significantly lower relative bias than conventional regression-based risk analysis methods and better coverage, that is, a markedly increased capability to include the true risk coefficient within the 95% credible interval of the Bayesian-based risk estimate. An evaluation of the dose-response using our method is presented for an epidemiological study of thyroid disease following radiation exposure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Rearrangement moves on rooted phylogenetic networks

PubMed Central

Gambette, Philippe; van Iersel, Leo; Jones, Mark; Scornavacca, Celine

2017-01-01

Phylogenetic tree reconstruction is usually done by local search heuristics that explore the space of the possible tree topologies via simple rearrangements of their structure. Tree rearrangement heuristics have been used in combination with practically all optimization criteria in use, from maximum likelihood and parsimony to distance-based principles, and in a Bayesian context. Their basic components are rearrangement moves that specify all possible ways of generating alternative phylogenies from a given one, and whose fundamental property is to be able to transform, by repeated application, any phylogeny into any other phylogeny. Despite their long tradition in tree-based phylogenetics, very little research has gone into studying similar rearrangement operations for phylogenetic network—that is, phylogenies explicitly representing scenarios that include reticulate events such as hybridization, horizontal gene transfer, population admixture, and recombination. To fill this gap, we propose “horizontal” moves that ensure that every network of a certain complexity can be reached from any other network of the same complexity, and “vertical” moves that ensure reachability between networks of different complexities. When applied to phylogenetic trees, our horizontal moves—named rNNI and rSPR—reduce to the best-known moves on rooted phylogenetic trees, nearest-neighbor interchange and rooted subtree pruning and regrafting. Besides a number of reachability results—separating the contributions of horizontal and vertical moves—we prove that rNNI moves are local versions of rSPR moves, and provide bounds on the sizes of the rNNI neighborhoods. The paper focuses on the most biologically meaningful versions of phylogenetic networks, where edges are oriented and reticulation events clearly identified. Moreover, our rearrangement moves are robust to the fact that networks with higher complexity usually allow a better fit with the data. Our goal is to provide a

Fast algorithms for computing phylogenetic divergence time.

PubMed

Crosby, Ralph W; Williams, Tiffani L

2017-12-06

The inference of species divergence time is a key step in most phylogenetic studies. Methods have been available for the last ten years to perform the inference, but the performance of the methods does not yet scale well to studies with hundreds of taxa and thousands of DNA base pairs. For example a study of 349 primate taxa was estimated to require over 9 months of processing time. In this work, we present a new algorithm, AncestralAge, that significantly improves the performance of the divergence time process. As part of AncestralAge, we demonstrate a new method for the computation of phylogenetic likelihood and our experiments show a 90% improvement in likelihood computation time on the aforementioned dataset of 349 primates taxa with over 60,000 DNA base pairs. Additionally, we show that our new method for the computation of the Bayesian prior on node ages reduces the running time for this computation on the 349 taxa dataset by 99%. Through the use of these new algorithms we open up the ability to perform divergence time inference on large phylogenetic studies.

The complete mitochondrial genome of lesser long-tailed Hamster Cricetulus longicaudatus (Milne-Edwards, 1867) and phylogenetic implications.

PubMed

Zhang, Ziqi; Sun, Tong; Kang, Chunlan; Liu, Yang; Liu, Shaoying; Yue, Bisong; Zeng, Tao

2016-01-01

The complete mitochondrial genome sequence of Cricetulus longicaudatus (Rodentia Cricetidae: Cricetinae) was determined and was deposited in GenBank (GenBank accession no. KM067270). The mitochondrial genome of C. longicaudatus was 16,302 bp in length and contained 13 protein-coding genes, 2 ribosomal RNA (rRNA) genes, 22 transfer RNA (tRNA) genes and one control region, with an identical order to that of other rodents' mitochondrial genomes. The phylogenetic analysis was performed with Bayesian inference based on the concatenated nucleotide sequence of 12 protein-coding genes on the heavy strand. The result showed that these species from Cricetidae and its two subfamilies (Cricetinae and Arvicolines) formed solid monophyletic group, respectively. The Cricetulus had close phylogenetic relationship with Tscherskia among three genera (Cricetulus, Cricetulus and Mesocricetus). Neodon irene and Myodes regulus were embedded in Microtus and Eothenomys, respectively. The unusual phylogenetic positions of Neodon irene and Myodes regulus remain further study in the future.

Phylogenetic analysis of two Plectus mitochondrial genomes (Nematoda: Plectida) supports a sister group relationship between Plectida and Rhabditida within Chromadorea.

PubMed

Kim, Jiyeon; Kern, Elizabeth; Kim, Taeho; Sim, Mikang; Kim, Jaebum; Kim, Yuseob; Park, Chungoo; Nadler, Steven A; Park, Joong-Ki

2017-02-01

Plectida is an important nematode order with species that occupy many different biological niches. The order includes free-living aquatic and soil-dwelling species, but its phylogenetic position has remained uncertain. We sequenced the complete mitochondrial genomes of two members of this order, Plectus acuminatus and Plectus aquatilis and compared them with those of other major nematode clades. The genome size and base composition of these species are similar to other nematodes; 14,831 and 14,372bp, respectively, with AT contents of 71.0% and 70.1%. Gene content was also similar to other nematodes, but gene order and coding direction of Plectus mtDNAs were dissimilar from other chromadorean species. P. acuminatus and P. aquatilis are the first chromadorean species found to contain a gene inversion. We reconstructed mitochondrial genome phylogenetic trees using nucleotide and amino acid datasets from 87 nematodes that represent major nematode clades, including the Plectus sequences. Trees from phylogenetic analyses using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods depicted Plectida as the sister group to other sequenced chromadorean nematodes. This finding is consistent with several phylogenetic results based on SSU rDNA, but disagrees with a classification based on morphology. Mitogenomes representing other basal chromadorean groups (Araeolaimida, Monhysterida, Desmodorida, Chromadorida) are needed to confirm their phylogenetic relationships. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Time-varying nonstationary multivariate risk analysis using a dynamic Bayesian copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, Ali; Burn, Donald H.; Concepción Ausín, María.; Wiper, Michael P.

2016-03-01

A time-varying risk analysis is proposed for an adaptive design framework in nonstationary conditions arising from climate change. A Bayesian, dynamic conditional copula is developed for modeling the time-varying dependence structure between mixed continuous and discrete multiattributes of multidimensional hydrometeorological phenomena. Joint Bayesian inference is carried out to fit the marginals and copula in an illustrative example using an adaptive, Gibbs Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. Posterior mean estimates and credible intervals are provided for the model parameters and the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) is used to select the model that best captures different forms of nonstationarity over time. This study also introduces a fully Bayesian, time-varying joint return period for multivariate time-dependent risk analysis in nonstationary environments. The results demonstrate that the nature and the risk of extreme-climate multidimensional processes are changed over time under the impact of climate change, and accordingly the long-term decision making strategies should be updated based on the anomalies of the nonstationary environment.

Single-Case Time Series with Bayesian Analysis: A Practitioner's Guide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, W. Paul

2003-01-01

This article illustrates a simplified time series analysis for use by the counseling researcher practitioner in single-case baseline plus intervention studies with a Bayesian probability analysis to integrate findings from replications. The C statistic is recommended as a primary analysis tool with particular relevance in the context of actual…

Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of Statistical Models with Missing Data

PubMed Central

ZHU, HONGTU; IBRAHIM, JOSEPH G.; TANG, NIANSHENG

2013-01-01

Methods for handling missing data depend strongly on the mechanism that generated the missing values, such as missing completely at random (MCAR) or missing at random (MAR), as well as other distributional and modeling assumptions at various stages. It is well known that the resulting estimates and tests may be sensitive to these assumptions as well as to outlying observations. In this paper, we introduce various perturbations to modeling assumptions and individual observations, and then develop a formal sensitivity analysis to assess these perturbations in the Bayesian analysis of statistical models with missing data. We develop a geometric framework, called the Bayesian perturbation manifold, to characterize the intrinsic structure of these perturbations. We propose several intrinsic influence measures to perform sensitivity analysis and quantify the effect of various perturbations to statistical models. We use the proposed sensitivity analysis procedure to systematically investigate the tenability of the non-ignorable missing at random (NMAR) assumption. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate our methods, and a dataset is analyzed to illustrate the use of our diagnostic measures. PMID:24753718

Enhancing the Modeling of PFOA Pharmacokinetics with Bayesian Analysis

EPA Science Inventory

The detail sufficient to describe the pharmacokinetics (PK) for perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and the methods necessary to combine information from multiple data sets are both subjects of ongoing investigation. Bayesian analysis provides tools to accommodate these goals. We exa...

Evidence of two distinct phylogenetic lineages of dog rabies virus circulating in Cambodia.

PubMed

Mey, Channa; Metlin, Artem; Duong, Veasna; Ong, Sivuth; In, Sotheary; Horwood, Paul F; Reynes, Jean-Marc; Bourhy, Hervé; Tarantola, Arnaud; Buchy, Philippe

2016-03-01

This first extensive retrospective study of the molecular epidemiology of dog rabies in Cambodia included 149 rabies virus (RABV) entire nucleoprotein sequences obtained from 1998-2011. The sequences were analyzed in conjunction with RABVs from other Asian countries. Phylogenetic reconstruction confirmed the South-East Asian phylogenetic clade comprising viruses from Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, Laos and Myanmar. The present study represents the first attempt to classify the phylogenetic lineages inside this clade, resulting in the confirmation that all the Cambodian viruses belonged to the South-East Asian (SEA) clade. Three distinct phylogenetic lineages in the region were established with the majority of viruses from Cambodia closely related to viruses from Thailand, Laos and Vietnam, forming the geographically widespread phylogenetic lineage SEA1. A South-East Asian lineage SEA2 comprised two viruses from Cambodia was identified, which shared a common ancestor with RABVs originating from Laos. Viruses from Myanmar formed separate phylogenetic lineages within the major SEA clade. Bayesian molecular clock analysis suggested that the time to most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of all Cambodian RABVs dated to around 1950. The TMRCA of the Cambodian SEA1 lineage was around 1964 and that of the SEA2 lineage was around 1953. The results identified three phylogenetically distinct and geographically separated lineages inside the earlier identified major SEA clade, covering at least five countries in the region. A greater understanding of the molecular epidemiology of rabies in South-East Asia is an important step to monitor progress on the efforts to control canine rabies in the region. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal Bayesian analysis of Lyme disease in New York state, 1990-2000.

PubMed

Chen, Haiyan; Stratton, Howard H; Caraco, Thomas B; White, Dennis J

2006-07-01

Mapping ordinarily increases our understanding of nontrivial spatial and temporal heterogeneities in disease rates. However, the large number of parameters required by the corresponding statistical models often complicates detailed analysis. This study investigates the feasibility of a fully Bayesian hierarchical regression approach to the problem and identifies how it outperforms two more popular methods: crude rate estimates (CRE) and empirical Bayes standardization (EBS). In particular, we apply a fully Bayesian approach to the spatiotemporal analysis of Lyme disease incidence in New York state for the period 1990-2000. These results are compared with those obtained by CRE and EBS in Chen et al. (2005). We show that the fully Bayesian regression model not only gives more reliable estimates of disease rates than the other two approaches but also allows for tractable models that can accommodate more numerous sources of variation and unknown parameters.

Species trees from consensus single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data: Testing phylogenetic approaches with simulated and empirical data.

PubMed

Schmidt-Lebuhn, Alexander N; Aitken, Nicola C; Chuah, Aaron

2017-11-01

Datasets of hundreds or thousands of SNPs (Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms) from multiple individuals per species are increasingly used to study population structure, species delimitation and shallow phylogenetics. The principal software tool to infer species or population trees from SNP data is currently the BEAST template SNAPP which uses a Bayesian coalescent analysis. However, it is computationally extremely demanding and tolerates only small amounts of missing data. We used simulated and empirical SNPs from plants (Australian Craspedia, Asteraceae, and Pelargonium, Geraniaceae) to compare species trees produced (1) by SNAPP, (2) using SVD quartets, and (3) using Bayesian and parsimony analysis with several different approaches to summarising data from multiple samples into one set of traits per species. Our aims were to explore the impact of tree topology and missing data on the results, and to test which data summarising and analyses approaches would best approximate the results obtained from SNAPP for empirical data. SVD quartets retrieved the correct topology from simulated data, as did SNAPP except in the case of a very unbalanced phylogeny. Both methods failed to retrieve the correct topology when large amounts of data were missing. Bayesian analysis of species level summary data scoring the two alleles of each SNP as independent characters and parsimony analysis of data scoring each SNP as one character produced trees with branch length distributions closest to the true trees on which SNPs were simulated. For empirical data, Bayesian inference and Dollo parsimony analysis of data scored allele-wise produced phylogenies most congruent with the results of SNAPP. In the case of study groups divergent enough for missing data to be phylogenetically informative (because of additional mutations preventing amplification of genomic fragments or bioinformatic establishment of homology), scoring of SNP data as a presence/absence matrix irrespective of allele

Application of a data-mining method based on Bayesian networks to lesion-deficit analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herskovits, Edward H.; Gerring, Joan P.

2003-01-01

Although lesion-deficit analysis (LDA) has provided extensive information about structure-function associations in the human brain, LDA has suffered from the difficulties inherent to the analysis of spatial data, i.e., there are many more variables than subjects, and data may be difficult to model using standard distributions, such as the normal distribution. We herein describe a Bayesian method for LDA; this method is based on data-mining techniques that employ Bayesian networks to represent structure-function associations. These methods are computationally tractable, and can represent complex, nonlinear structure-function associations. When applied to the evaluation of data obtained from a study of the psychiatric sequelae of traumatic brain injury in children, this method generates a Bayesian network that demonstrates complex, nonlinear associations among lesions in the left caudate, right globus pallidus, right side of the corpus callosum, right caudate, and left thalamus, and subsequent development of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, confirming and extending our previous statistical analysis of these data. Furthermore, analysis of simulated data indicates that methods based on Bayesian networks may be more sensitive and specific for detecting associations among categorical variables than methods based on chi-square and Fisher exact statistics.

Comprehensive evolutionary and phylogenetic analysis of Hepacivirus N (HNV).

PubMed

da Silva, M S; Junqueira, D M; Baumbach, L F; Cibulski, S P; Mósena, A C S; Weber, M N; Silveira, S; de Moraes, G M; Maia, R D; Coimbra, V C S; Canal, C W

2018-05-24

Hepaciviruses (HVs) have been detected in several domestic and wild animals and present high genetic diversity. The actual classification divides the genus Hepacivirus into 14 species (A-N), according to their phylogenetic relationships, including the bovine hepacivirus [Hepacivirus N (HNV)]. In this study, we confirmed HNV circulation in Brazil and sequenced the whole genome of two strains. Based on the current classification of HCV, which is divided into genotypes and subtypes, we analysed all available bovine hepacivirus sequences in the GenBank database and proposed an HNV classification. All of the sequences were grouped into a single genotype, putatively named 'genotype 1'. This genotype can be clearly divided into four subtypes: A and D containing sequences from Germany and Brazil, respectively, and B and C containing Ghanaian sequences. In addition, the NS3-coding region was used to estimate the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of each subtype, using a Bayesian approach and a relaxed molecular clock model. The analyses indicated a common origin of the virus circulating in Germany and Brazil. Ghanaian sequences seemed to have an older TMRCA, indicating a long time of circulation of these viruses in the African continent.

galaxie--CGI scripts for sequence identification through automated phylogenetic analysis.

PubMed

Nilsson, R Henrik; Larsson, Karl-Henrik; Ursing, Björn M

2004-06-12

The prevalent use of similarity searches like BLAST to identify sequences and species implicitly assumes the reference database to be of extensive sequence sampling. This is often not the case, restraining the correctness of the outcome as a basis for sequence identification. Phylogenetic inference outperforms similarity searches in retrieving correct phylogenies and consequently sequence identities, and a project was initiated to design a freely available script package for sequence identification through automated Web-based phylogenetic analysis. Three CGI scripts were designed to facilitate qualified sequence identification from a Web interface. Query sequences are aligned to pre-made alignments or to alignments made by ClustalW with entries retrieved from a BLAST search. The subsequent phylogenetic analysis is based on the PHYLIP package for inferring neighbor-joining and parsimony trees. The scripts are highly configurable. A service installation and a version for local use are found at http://andromeda.botany.gu.se/galaxiewelcome.html and http://galaxie.cgb.ki.se

pplacer: linear time maximum-likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic placement of sequences onto a fixed reference tree

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Likelihood-based phylogenetic inference is generally considered to be the most reliable classification method for unknown sequences. However, traditional likelihood-based phylogenetic methods cannot be applied to large volumes of short reads from next-generation sequencing due to computational complexity issues and lack of phylogenetic signal. "Phylogenetic placement," where a reference tree is fixed and the unknown query sequences are placed onto the tree via a reference alignment, is a way to bring the inferential power offered by likelihood-based approaches to large data sets. Results This paper introduces pplacer, a software package for phylogenetic placement and subsequent visualization. The algorithm can place twenty thousand short reads on a reference tree of one thousand taxa per hour per processor, has essentially linear time and memory complexity in the number of reference taxa, and is easy to run in parallel. Pplacer features calculation of the posterior probability of a placement on an edge, which is a statistically rigorous way of quantifying uncertainty on an edge-by-edge basis. It also can inform the user of the positional uncertainty for query sequences by calculating expected distance between placement locations, which is crucial in the estimation of uncertainty with a well-sampled reference tree. The software provides visualizations using branch thickness and color to represent number of placements and their uncertainty. A simulation study using reads generated from 631 COG alignments shows a high level of accuracy for phylogenetic placement over a wide range of alignment diversity, and the power of edge uncertainty estimates to measure placement confidence. Conclusions Pplacer enables efficient phylogenetic placement and subsequent visualization, making likelihood-based phylogenetics methodology practical for large collections of reads; it is freely available as source code, binaries, and a web service. PMID:21034504

Phylogenetic study of Class Armophorea (Alveolata, Ciliophora) based on 18S-rDNA data.

PubMed

da Silva Paiva, Thiago; do Nascimento Borges, Bárbara; da Silva-Neto, Inácio Domingos

2013-12-01

The 18S rDNA phylogeny of Class Armophorea, a group of anaerobic ciliates, is proposed based on an analysis of 44 sequences (out of 195) retrieved from the NCBI/GenBank database. Emphasis was placed on the use of two nucleotide alignment criteria that involved variation in the gap-opening and gap-extension parameters and the use of rRNA secondary structure to orientate multiple-alignment. A sensitivity analysis of 76 data sets was run to assess the effect of variations in indel parameters on tree topologies. Bayesian inference, maximum likelihood and maximum parsimony phylogenetic analyses were used to explore how different analytic frameworks influenced the resulting hypotheses. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the relationships among higher taxa of the Intramacronucleata were dependent upon how indels were determined during multiple-alignment of nucleotides. The phylogenetic analyses rejected the monophyly of the Armophorea most of the time and consistently indicated that the Metopidae and Nyctotheridae were related to the Litostomatea. There was no consensus on the placement of the Caenomorphidae, which could be a sister group of the Metopidae + Nyctorheridae, or could have diverged at the base of the Spirotrichea branch or the Intramacronucleata tree.

Phylogenetic study of Class Armophorea (Alveolata, Ciliophora) based on 18S-rDNA data

PubMed Central

da Silva Paiva, Thiago; do Nascimento Borges, Bárbara; da Silva-Neto, Inácio Domingos

2013-01-01

The 18S rDNA phylogeny of Class Armophorea, a group of anaerobic ciliates, is proposed based on an analysis of 44 sequences (out of 195) retrieved from the NCBI/GenBank database. Emphasis was placed on the use of two nucleotide alignment criteria that involved variation in the gap-opening and gap-extension parameters and the use of rRNA secondary structure to orientate multiple-alignment. A sensitivity analysis of 76 data sets was run to assess the effect of variations in indel parameters on tree topologies. Bayesian inference, maximum likelihood and maximum parsimony phylogenetic analyses were used to explore how different analytic frameworks influenced the resulting hypotheses. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the relationships among higher taxa of the Intramacronucleata were dependent upon how indels were determined during multiple-alignment of nucleotides. The phylogenetic analyses rejected the monophyly of the Armophorea most of the time and consistently indicated that the Metopidae and Nyctotheridae were related to the Litostomatea. There was no consensus on the placement of the Caenomorphidae, which could be a sister group of the Metopidae + Nyctorheridae, or could have diverged at the base of the Spirotrichea branch or the Intramacronucleata tree. PMID:24385862

Bayesian, maximum parsimony and UPGMA models for inferring the phylogenies of antelopes using mitochondrial markers.

PubMed

Khan, Haseeb A; Arif, Ibrahim A; Bahkali, Ali H; Al Farhan, Ahmad H; Al Homaidan, Ali A

2008-10-06

This investigation was aimed to compare the inference of antelope phylogenies resulting from the 16S rRNA, cytochrome-b (cyt-b) and d-loop segments of mitochondrial DNA using three different computational models including Bayesian (BA), maximum parsimony (MP) and unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean (UPGMA). The respective nucleotide sequences of three Oryx species (Oryx leucoryx, Oryx dammah and Oryx gazella) and an out-group (Addax nasomaculatus) were aligned and subjected to BA, MP and UPGMA models for comparing the topologies of respective phylogenetic trees. The 16S rRNA region possessed the highest frequency of conserved sequences (97.65%) followed by cyt-b (94.22%) and d-loop (87.29%). There were few transitions (2.35%) and none transversions in 16S rRNA as compared to cyt-b (5.61% transitions and 0.17% transversions) and d-loop (11.57% transitions and 1.14% transversions) while comparing the four taxa. All the three mitochondrial segments clearly differentiated the genus Addax from Oryx using the BA or UPGMA models. The topologies of all the gamma-corrected Bayesian trees were identical irrespective of the marker type. The UPGMA trees resulting from 16S rRNA and d-loop sequences were also identical (Oryx dammah grouped with Oryx leucoryx) to Bayesian trees except that the UPGMA tree based on cyt-b showed a slightly different phylogeny (Oryx dammah grouped with Oryx gazella) with a low bootstrap support. However, the MP model failed to differentiate the genus Addax from Oryx. These findings demonstrate the efficiency and robustness of BA and UPGMA methods for phylogenetic analysis of antelopes using mitochondrial markers.

Bayesian, Maximum Parsimony and UPGMA Models for Inferring the Phylogenies of Antelopes Using Mitochondrial Markers

PubMed Central

Khan, Haseeb A.; Arif, Ibrahim A.; Bahkali, Ali H.; Al Farhan, Ahmad H.; Al Homaidan, Ali A.

2008-01-01

This investigation was aimed to compare the inference of antelope phylogenies resulting from the 16S rRNA, cytochrome-b (cyt-b) and d-loop segments of mitochondrial DNA using three different computational models including Bayesian (BA), maximum parsimony (MP) and unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean (UPGMA). The respective nucleotide sequences of three Oryx species (Oryx leucoryx, Oryx dammah and Oryx gazella) and an out-group (Addax nasomaculatus) were aligned and subjected to BA, MP and UPGMA models for comparing the topologies of respective phylogenetic trees. The 16S rRNA region possessed the highest frequency of conserved sequences (97.65%) followed by cyt-b (94.22%) and d-loop (87.29%). There were few transitions (2.35%) and none transversions in 16S rRNA as compared to cyt-b (5.61% transitions and 0.17% transversions) and d-loop (11.57% transitions and 1.14% transversions) while comparing the four taxa. All the three mitochondrial segments clearly differentiated the genus Addax from Oryx using the BA or UPGMA models. The topologies of all the gamma-corrected Bayesian trees were identical irrespective of the marker type. The UPGMA trees resulting from 16S rRNA and d-loop sequences were also identical (Oryx dammah grouped with Oryx leucoryx) to Bayesian trees except that the UPGMA tree based on cyt-b showed a slightly different phylogeny (Oryx dammah grouped with Oryx gazella) with a low bootstrap support. However, the MP model failed to differentiate the genus Addax from Oryx. These findings demonstrate the efficiency and robustness of BA and UPGMA methods for phylogenetic analysis of antelopes using mitochondrial markers. PMID:19204824

The evolution of virulence in primate malaria parasites based on Bayesian reconstructions of ancestral states.

PubMed

Garamszegi, László Zsolt

2011-02-01

Plasmodium parasites, the causative agents of malaria, are generally considered as harmful parasites, but many of them cause mild symptoms. Little is known about the evolutionary history and phylogenetic constraints that generate this interspecific variation in virulence due to uncertainties about the phylogenetic associations of parasites. Here, to account for such phylogenetic uncertainty, phylogenetic methods based on Bayesian statistics were followed in combination with sequence data from five genes to estimate the ancestral state of virulence in primate Plasmodium parasites. When recent parasites were categorised according to the damage caused to the host, Bayesian estimates of ancestral states indicated that the acquisition of a harmful host exploitation strategy is more likely to be a recent evolutionary event than a result of an ancient change in a character state altering virulence. On the contrary, there was more evidence for moderate host exploitation having a deep origin along the phylogenetic tree. Moreover, the evolution of host severity is determined by the phylogenetic relationships of parasites, as severity gains did not appear randomly on the evolutionary tree. Such phylogenetic constraints can be mediated by the acquisition of virulence genes. As the impact of a parasite on a host is the result of both the parasite's investment in reproduction and host sensitivity, virulence was also estimated by calculating peak parasitemia after eliminating host effects. A directional random-walk evolutionary model showed that the ancestral primate malarias reproduced at very low parasitemia in their hosts. Consequently, the extreme variation in the outcome of malaria infection in different host species can be better understood in light of the phylogeny of parasites. Copyright © 2010 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structure-Based Phylogenetic Analysis of the Lipocalin Superfamily.

PubMed

Lakshmi, Balasubramanian; Mishra, Madhulika; Srinivasan, Narayanaswamy; Archunan, Govindaraju

2015-01-01

Lipocalins constitute a superfamily of extracellular proteins that are found in all three kingdoms of life. Although very divergent in their sequences and functions, they show remarkable similarity in 3-D structures. Lipocalins bind and transport small hydrophobic molecules. Earlier sequence-based phylogenetic studies of lipocalins highlighted that they have a long evolutionary history. However the molecular and structural basis of their functional diversity is not completely understood. The main objective of the present study is to understand functional diversity of the lipocalins using a structure-based phylogenetic approach. The present study with 39 protein domains from the lipocalin superfamily suggests that the clusters of lipocalins obtained by structure-based phylogeny correspond well with the functional diversity. The detailed analysis on each of the clusters and sub-clusters reveals that the 39 lipocalin domains cluster based on their mode of ligand binding though the clustering was performed on the basis of gross domain structure. The outliers in the phylogenetic tree are often from single member families. Also structure-based phylogenetic approach has provided pointers to assign putative function for the domains of unknown function in lipocalin family. The approach employed in the present study can be used in the future for the functional identification of new lipocalin proteins and may be extended to other protein families where members show poor sequence similarity but high structural similarity.

Multi-locus phylogenetic analysis of Old World chats and flycatchers reveals extensive paraphyly at family, subfamily and genus level (Aves: Muscicapidae).

PubMed

Sangster, George; Alström, Per; Forsmark, Emma; Olsson, Urban

2010-10-01

The chats and flycatchers (Muscicapidae) represent an assemblage of 275 species in 48 genera. Defining natural groups within this assemblage has been challenging because of its high diversity and a paucity of phylogenetically informative morphological characters. We assessed the phylogenetic relationships of 124 species and 34 genera of Muscicapidae, and 20 species of Turdidae, using molecular sequence data from one mitochondrial gene and three nuclear loci, in total 3240bp. Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses yielded a well-resolved tree in which nearly all basal nodes were strongly supported. The traditionally defined Muscicapidae, Muscicapinae and Saxicolinae were paraphyletic. Four major clades are recognized in Muscicapidae: Muscicapinae, Niltavinae (new family-group name), Erithacinae and Saxicolinae. Interesting relationships recovered by this analysis include: (i) a clade comprising the 'blue' flycatcher genera Niltava, Cyornis, Cyanoptila and Eumyias and some species of Rhinomyias; (ii) the position of Erithacus rubecula in a clade of otherwise exclusively African species; (iii) a close relationship between the shortwing Heinrichia calligyna and the flycatcher Rhinomyias insignis; (iv) a sister-relationship between forktails Enicurus and whistling thrushes Myophonus; and (v) a sister relationship of Ficedula and the 'chats'Monticola, Phoenicurus, Saxicola and Oenanthe. A high number of traditionally defined genera was found to be paraphyletic or polyphyletic. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Morphological, molecular and phylogenetic analyses of Diplotriaena bargusinica Skrjabin, 1917 (Nematoda: Diplotriaenidae).

PubMed

Dutra Vieira, Thainá; Pegoraro de Macedo, Marcia Raquel; Fedatto Bernardon, Fabiana; Müller, Gertrud

2017-10-01

The nematode Diplotriaena bargusinica is a bird air sac parasite, and its taxonomy is based mainly on morphological and morphometric characteristics. Increasing knowledge of genetic information variability has spurred the use of DNA markers in conjunction with morphological data for inferring phylogenetic relationships in different taxa. Considering the potential of molecular biology in taxonomy, this study presents the morphological and molecular characterization of D. bargusinica, and establishes the phylogenetic position of the nematode in Spirurina. Twenty partial sequences of the 18S region of D. bargusinica rDNA were generated. Phylogenetic trees were obtained through the Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference methods where both had similar topology. The group Diplotriaenoidea is monophyletic and the topologies generated corroborate the phylogenetic studies based on traditional and previously performed molecular taxonomy. This study is the first to generate molecular data associated with the morphology of the species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phylogenetic estimation and morphological evolution of Arundinarieae (Bambusoideae: Poaceae) based on plastome phylogenomic analysis.

PubMed

Attigala, Lakshmi; Wysocki, William P; Duvall, Melvin R; Clark, Lynn G

2016-08-01

We explored phylogenetic relationships among the twelve lineages of the temperate woody bamboo clade (tribe Arundinarieae) based on plastid genome (plastome) sequence data. A representative sample of 28 taxa was used and maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference analyses were conducted to estimate the Arundinarieae phylogeny. All the previously recognized clades of Arundinarieae were supported, with Ampelocalamus calcareus (Clade XI) as sister to the rest of the temperate woody bamboos. Well supported sister relationships between Bergbambos tessellata (Clade I) and Thamnocalamus spathiflorus (Clade VII) and between Kuruna (Clade XII) and Chimonocalmus (Clade III) were revealed by the current study. The plastome topology was tested by taxon removal experiments and alternative hypothesis testing and the results supported the current plastome phylogeny as robust. Neighbor-net analyses showed few phylogenetic signal conflicts, but suggested some potentially complex relationships among these taxa. Analyses of morphological character evolution of rhizomes and reproductive structures revealed that pachymorph rhizomes were most likely the ancestral state in Arundinarieae. In contrast leptomorph rhizomes either evolved once with reversions to the pachymorph condition or multiple times in Arundinarieae. Further, pseudospikelets evolved independently at least twice in the Arundinarieae, but the ancestral state is ambiguous. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Soft-tissue anatomy of the extant hominoids: a review and phylogenetic analysis

PubMed Central

Gibbs, S; Collard, M; Wood, B

2002-01-01

This paper reports the results of a literature search for information about the soft-tissue anatomy of the extant non-human hominoid genera, Pan, Gorilla, Pongo and Hylobates, together with the results of a phylogenetic analysis of these data plus comparable data for Homo. Information on the four extant non-human hominoid genera was located for 240 out of the 1783 soft-tissue structures listed in the Nomina Anatomica. Numerically these data are biased so that information about some systems (e.g. muscles) and some regions (e.g. the forelimb) are over-represented, whereas other systems and regions (e.g. the veins and the lymphatics of the vascular system, the head region) are either under-represented or not represented at all. Screening to ensure that the data were suitable for use in a phylogenetic analysis reduced the number of eligible soft-tissue structures to 171. These data, together with comparable data for modern humans, were converted into discontinuous character states suitable for phylogenetic analysis and then used to construct a taxon-by-character matrix. This matrix was used in two tests of the hypothesis that soft-tissue characters can be relied upon to reconstruct hominoid phylogenetic relationships. In the first, parsimony analysis was used to identify cladograms requiring the smallest number of character state changes. In the second, the phylogenetic bootstrap was used to determine the confidence intervals of the most parsimonious clades. The parsimony analysis yielded a single most parsimonious cladogram that matched the molecular cladogram. Similarly the bootstrap analysis yielded clades that were compatible with the molecular cladogram; a (Homo, Pan) clade was supported by 95% of the replicates, and a (Gorilla, Pan, Homo) clade by 96%. These are the first hominoid morphological data to provide statistically significant support for the clades favoured by the molecular evidence. PMID:11833653

Soft-tissue anatomy of the extant hominoids: a review and phylogenetic analysis.

PubMed

Gibbs, S; Collard, M; Wood, B

2002-01-01

This paper reports the results of a literature search for information about the soft-tissue anatomy of the extant non-human hominoid genera, Pan, Gorilla, Pongo and Hylobates, together with the results of a phylogenetic analysis of these data plus comparable data for Homo. Information on the four extant non-human hominoid genera was located for 240 out of the 1783 soft-tissue structures listed in the Nomina Anatomica. Numerically these data are biased so that information about some systems (e.g. muscles) and some regions (e.g. the forelimb) are over-represented, whereas other systems and regions (e.g. the veins and the lymphatics of the vascular system, the head region) are either under-represented or not represented at all. Screening to ensure that the data were suitable for use in a phylogenetic analysis reduced the number of eligible soft-tissue structures to 171. These data, together with comparable data for modern humans, were converted into discontinuous character states suitable for phylogenetic analysis and then used to construct a taxon-by-character matrix. This matrix was used in two tests of the hypothesis that soft-tissue characters can be relied upon to reconstruct hominoid phylogenetic relationships. In the first, parsimony analysis was used to identify cladograms requiring the smallest number of character state changes. In the second, the phylogenetic bootstrap was used to determine the confidence intervals of the most parsimonious clades. The parsimony analysis yielded a single most parsimonious cladogram that matched the molecular cladogram. Similarly the bootstrap analysis yielded clades that were compatible with the molecular cladogram; a (Homo, Pan) clade was supported by 95% of the replicates, and a (Gorilla, Pan, Homo) clade by 96%. These are the first hominoid morphological data to provide statistically significant support for the clades favoured by the molecular evidence.

A Deliberate Practice Approach to Teaching Phylogenetic Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hobbs, F. Collin; Johnson, Daniel J.; Kearns, Katherine D.

2013-01-01

One goal of postsecondary education is to assist students in developing expert-level understanding. Previous attempts to encourage expert-level understanding of phylogenetic analysis in college science classrooms have largely focused on isolated, or "one-shot," in-class activities. Using a deliberate practice instructional approach, we…

The mitochondrial genome of Polistes jokahamae and a phylogenetic analysis of the Vespoidea (Insecta: Hymenoptera).

PubMed

Song, Sheng-Nan; Chen, Peng-Yan; Wei, Shu-Jun; Chen, Xue-Xin

2016-07-01

The mitochondrial genome sequence of Polistes jokahamae (Radoszkowski, 1887) (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) (GenBank accession no. KR052468) was sequenced. The current length with partial A + T-rich region of this mitochondrial genome is 16,616 bp. All the typical mitochondrial genes were sequenced except for three tRNAs (trnI, trnQ, and trnY) located between the A + T-rich region and nad2. At least three rearrangement events occurred in the sequenced region compared with the pupative ancestral arrangement of insects, corresponding to the shuffling of trnK and trnD, translocation or remote inversion of tnnY and translocation of trnL1. All protein-coding genes start with ATN codons. Eleven, one, and another one protein-coding genes stop with termination codon TAA, TA, and T, respectively. Phylogenetic analysis using the Bayesian method based on all codon positions of the 13 protein-coding genes supports the monophyly of Vespidae and Formicidae. Within the Formicidae, the Myrmicinae and Formicinae form a sister lineage and then sister to the Dolichoderinae, while within the Vespidae, the Eumeninae is sister to the lineage of Vespinae + Polistinae.

Evaluation of a Partial Genome Screening of Two Asthma Susceptibility Regions Using Bayesian Network Based Bayesian Multilevel Analysis of Relevance

PubMed Central

Antal, Péter; Kiszel, Petra Sz.; Gézsi, András; Hadadi, Éva; Virág, Viktor; Hajós, Gergely; Millinghoffer, András; Nagy, Adrienne; Kiss, András; Semsei, Ágnes F.; Temesi, Gergely; Melegh, Béla; Kisfali, Péter; Széll, Márta; Bikov, András; Gálffy, Gabriella; Tamási, Lilla; Falus, András; Szalai, Csaba

2012-01-01

Genetic studies indicate high number of potential factors related to asthma. Based on earlier linkage analyses we selected the 11q13 and 14q22 asthma susceptibility regions, for which we designed a partial genome screening study using 145 SNPs in 1201 individuals (436 asthmatic children and 765 controls). The results were evaluated with traditional frequentist methods and we applied a new statistical method, called Bayesian network based Bayesian multilevel analysis of relevance (BN-BMLA). This method uses Bayesian network representation to provide detailed characterization of the relevance of factors, such as joint significance, the type of dependency, and multi-target aspects. We estimated posteriors for these relations within the Bayesian statistical framework, in order to estimate the posteriors whether a variable is directly relevant or its association is only mediated. With frequentist methods one SNP (rs3751464 in the FRMD6 gene) provided evidence for an association with asthma (OR = 1.43(1.2–1.8); p = 3×10−4). The possible role of the FRMD6 gene in asthma was also confirmed in an animal model and human asthmatics. In the BN-BMLA analysis altogether 5 SNPs in 4 genes were found relevant in connection with asthma phenotype: PRPF19 on chromosome 11, and FRMD6, PTGER2 and PTGDR on chromosome 14. In a subsequent step a partial dataset containing rhinitis and further clinical parameters was used, which allowed the analysis of relevance of SNPs for asthma and multiple targets. These analyses suggested that SNPs in the AHNAK and MS4A2 genes were indirectly associated with asthma. This paper indicates that BN-BMLA explores the relevant factors more comprehensively than traditional statistical methods and extends the scope of strong relevance based methods to include partial relevance, global characterization of relevance and multi-target relevance. PMID:22432035

MrBayes tgMC3++: A High Performance and Resource-Efficient GPU-Oriented Phylogenetic Analysis Method.

PubMed

Ling, Cheng; Hamada, Tsuyoshi; Gao, Jingyang; Zhao, Guoguang; Sun, Donghong; Shi, Weifeng

2016-01-01

MrBayes is a widespread phylogenetic inference tool harnessing empirical evolutionary models and Bayesian statistics. However, the computational cost on the likelihood estimation is very expensive, resulting in undesirably long execution time. Although a number of multi-threaded optimizations have been proposed to speed up MrBayes, there are bottlenecks that severely limit the GPU thread-level parallelism of likelihood estimations. This study proposes a high performance and resource-efficient method for GPU-oriented parallelization of likelihood estimations. Instead of having to rely on empirical programming, the proposed novel decomposition storage model implements high performance data transfers implicitly. In terms of performance improvement, a speedup factor of up to 178 can be achieved on the analysis of simulated datasets by four Tesla K40 cards. In comparison to the other publicly available GPU-oriented MrBayes, the tgMC 3 ++ method (proposed herein) outperforms the tgMC 3 (v1.0), nMC 3 (v2.1.1) and oMC 3 (v1.00) methods by speedup factors of up to 1.6, 1.9 and 2.9, respectively. Moreover, tgMC 3 ++ supports more evolutionary models and gamma categories, which previous GPU-oriented methods fail to take into analysis.

Easy-to-use phylogenetic analysis system for hepatitis B virus infection.

PubMed

Sugiyama, Masaya; Inui, Ayano; Shin-I, Tadasu; Komatsu, Haruki; Mukaide, Motokazu; Masaki, Naohiko; Murata, Kazumoto; Ito, Kiyoaki; Nakanishi, Makoto; Fujisawa, Tomoo; Mizokami, Masashi

2011-10-01

  The molecular phylogenetic analysis has been broadly applied to clinical and virological study. However, the appropriate settings and application of calculation parameters are difficult for non-specialists of molecular genetics. In the present study, the phylogenetic analysis tool was developed for the easy determination of genotypes and transmission route.   A total of 23 patients of 10 families infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV) were enrolled and expected to undergo intrafamilial transmission. The extracted HBV DNA were amplified and sequenced in a region of the S gene.   The software to automatically classify query sequence was constructed and installed on the Hepatitis Virus Database (HVDB). Reference sequences were retrieved from HVDB, which contained major genotypes from A to H. Multiple-alignments using CLUSTAL W were performed before the genetic distance matrix was calculated with the six-parameter method. The phylogenetic tree was output by the neighbor-joining method. User interface using WWW-browser was also developed for intuitive control. This system was named as the easy-to-use phylogenetic analysis system (E-PAS). Twenty-three sera of 10 families were analyzed to evaluate E-PAS. The queries obtained from nine families were genotype C and were located in one cluster per family. However, one patient of a family was classified into the cluster different from her family, suggesting that E-PAS detected the sample distinct from that of her family on the transmission route.   The E-PAS to output phylogenetic tree was developed since requisite material was sequence data only. E-PAS could expand to determine HBV genotypes as well as transmission routes. © 2011 The Japan Society of Hepatology.

Molecular phylogenetic analysis of nuclear genes suggests a Cenozoic over-water dispersal origin for the Cuban solenodon.

PubMed

Sato, Jun J; Ohdachi, Satoshi D; Echenique-Diaz, Lazaro M; Borroto-Páez, Rafael; Begué-Quiala, Gerardo; Delgado-Labañino, Jorge L; Gámez-Díez, Jorgelino; Alvarez-Lemus, José; Nguyen, Son Truong; Yamaguchi, Nobuyuki; Kita, Masaki

2016-08-08

The Cuban solenodon (Solenodon cubanus) is one of the most enigmatic mammals and is an extremely rare species with a distribution limited to a small part of the island of Cuba. Despite its rarity, in 2012 seven individuals of S. cubanus were captured and sampled successfully for DNA analysis, providing new insights into the evolutionary origin of this species and into the origins of the Caribbean fauna, which remain controversial. We conducted molecular phylogenetic analyses of five nuclear genes (Apob, Atp7a, Bdnf, Brca1 and Rag1; total, 4,602 bp) from 35 species of the mammalian order Eulipotyphla. Based on Bayesian relaxed molecular clock analyses, the family Solenodontidae diverged from other eulipotyphlan in the Paleocene, after the bolide impact on the Yucatan Peninsula, and S. cubanus diverged from the Hispaniolan solenodon (S. paradoxus) in the Early Pliocene. The strikingly recent divergence time estimates suggest that S. cubanus and its ancestral lineage originated via over-water dispersal rather than vicariance events, as had previously been hypothesised.

Molecular phylogenetic analysis of nuclear genes suggests a Cenozoic over-water dispersal origin for the Cuban solenodon

PubMed Central

Sato, Jun J.; Ohdachi, Satoshi D.; Echenique-Diaz, Lazaro M.; Borroto-Páez, Rafael; Begué-Quiala, Gerardo; Delgado-Labañino, Jorge L.; Gámez-Díez, Jorgelino; Alvarez-Lemus, José; Nguyen, Son Truong; Yamaguchi, Nobuyuki; Kita, Masaki

2016-01-01

The Cuban solenodon (Solenodon cubanus) is one of the most enigmatic mammals and is an extremely rare species with a distribution limited to a small part of the island of Cuba. Despite its rarity, in 2012 seven individuals of S. cubanus were captured and sampled successfully for DNA analysis, providing new insights into the evolutionary origin of this species and into the origins of the Caribbean fauna, which remain controversial. We conducted molecular phylogenetic analyses of five nuclear genes (Apob, Atp7a, Bdnf, Brca1 and Rag1; total, 4,602 bp) from 35 species of the mammalian order Eulipotyphla. Based on Bayesian relaxed molecular clock analyses, the family Solenodontidae diverged from other eulipotyphlan in the Paleocene, after the bolide impact on the Yucatan Peninsula, and S. cubanus diverged from the Hispaniolan solenodon (S. paradoxus) in the Early Pliocene. The strikingly recent divergence time estimates suggest that S. cubanus and its ancestral lineage originated via over-water dispersal rather than vicariance events, as had previously been hypothesised. PMID:27498968

Divergent ancestral lineages of newfound hantaviruses harbored by phylogenetically related crocidurine shrew species in Korea

PubMed Central

Arai, Satoru; Gu, Se Hun; Baek, Luck Ju; Tabara, Kenji; Bennett, Shannon; Oh, Hong-Shik; Takada, Nobuhiro; Kang, Hae Ji; Tanaka-Taya, Keiko; Morikawa, Shigeru; Okabe, Nobuhiko; Yanagihara, Richard; Song, Jin-Won

2012-01-01

Spurred by the recent isolation of a novel hantavirus, named Imjin virus (MJNV), from the Ussuri white-toothed shrew (Crocidura lasiura), targeted trapping was conducted for the phylogenetically related Asian lesser white-toothed shrew (Crocidura shantungensis). Pair-wise alignment and comparison of the S, M and L segments of a newfound hantavirus, designated Jeju virus (JJUV), indicated remarkably low nucleotide and amino acid sequence similarity with MJNV. Phylogenetic analyses, using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, showed divergent ancestral lineages for JJUV and MJNV, despite the close phylogenetic relationship of their reservoir soricid hosts. Also, no evidence of host switching was apparent in tanglegrams, generated by TreeMap 2.0β. PMID:22230701

Phylogenetic relationships of Cranichidinae and Prescottiinae (Orchidaceae, Cranichideae) inferred from plastid and nuclear DNA sequences

PubMed Central

Salazar, Gerardo A.; Cabrera, Lidia I.; Madriñán, Santiago; Chase, Mark W.

2009-01-01

Background and Aims Phylogenetic relationships of subtribes Cranichidinae and Prescottiinae, two diverse groups of neotropical terrestrial orchids, are not satisfactorily understood. A previous molecular phylogenetic study supported monophyly for Cranichidinae, but Prescottiinae consisted of two clades not sister to one another. However, that analysis included only 11 species and eight genera of these subtribes. Here, plastid and nuclear DNA sequences are analysed for an enlarged sample of genera and species of Cranichidinae and Prescottiinae with the aim of clarifying their relationships, evaluating the phylogenetic position of the monospecific genera Exalaria, Ocampoa and Pseudocranichis and examining the value of various structural traits as taxonomic markers. Methods Approx. 6000 bp of nucleotide sequences from nuclear ribosomal (ITS) and plastid DNA (rbcL, matK-trnK and trnL-trnF) were analysed with cladistic parsimony and Bayesian inference for 45 species/14 genera of Cranichidinae and Prescottiinae (plus suitable outgroups). The utility of flower orientation, thickenings of velamen cell walls, hamular viscidium and pseudolabellum to mark clades recovered by the molecular analysis was assessed by tracing these characters on the molecular trees. Key Results Spiranthinae, Cranichidinae, paraphyletic Prescottia (with Pseudocranichis embedded), and a group of mainly Andean ‘prescottioid’ genera (the ‘Stenoptera clade’) were strongly supported. Relationships among these clades were unresolved by parsimony but the Bayesian tree provided moderately strong support for the resolution (Spiranthinae–(Stenoptera clade-(Prescottia/Pseudocranichis–Cranichidinae))). Three of the four structural characters mark clades on the molecular trees, but the possession of a pseudolabellum is variable in the polyphyletic Ponthieva. Conclusions No evidence was found for monophyly of Prescottiinae and the reinstatement of Cranichidinae s.l. (including the genera of �

Bayesian analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects for patient-centered outcomes research.

PubMed

Henderson, Nicholas C; Louis, Thomas A; Wang, Chenguang; Varadhan, Ravi

2016-01-01

Evaluation of heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE) is an essential aspect of personalized medicine and patient-centered outcomes research. Our goal in this article is to promote the use of Bayesian methods for subgroup analysis and to lower the barriers to their implementation by describing the ways in which the companion software beanz can facilitate these types of analyses. To advance this goal, we describe several key Bayesian models for investigating HTE and outline the ways in which they are well-suited to address many of the commonly cited challenges in the study of HTE. Topics highlighted include shrinkage estimation, model choice, sensitivity analysis, and posterior predictive checking. A case study is presented in which we demonstrate the use of the methods discussed.

Using Bayesian analysis in repeated preclinical in vivo studies for a more effective use of animals.

PubMed

Walley, Rosalind; Sherington, John; Rastrick, Joe; Detrait, Eric; Hanon, Etienne; Watt, Gillian

2016-05-01

Whilst innovative Bayesian approaches are increasingly used in clinical studies, in the preclinical area Bayesian methods appear to be rarely used in the reporting of pharmacology data. This is particularly surprising in the context of regularly repeated in vivo studies where there is a considerable amount of data from historical control groups, which has potential value. This paper describes our experience with introducing Bayesian analysis for such studies using a Bayesian meta-analytic predictive approach. This leads naturally either to an informative prior for a control group as part of a full Bayesian analysis of the next study or using a predictive distribution to replace a control group entirely. We use quality control charts to illustrate study-to-study variation to the scientists and describe informative priors in terms of their approximate effective numbers of animals. We describe two case studies of animal models: the lipopolysaccharide-induced cytokine release model used in inflammation and the novel object recognition model used to screen cognitive enhancers, both of which show the advantage of a Bayesian approach over the standard frequentist analysis. We conclude that using Bayesian methods in stable repeated in vivo studies can result in a more effective use of animals, either by reducing the total number of animals used or by increasing the precision of key treatment differences. This will lead to clearer results and supports the "3Rs initiative" to Refine, Reduce and Replace animals in research. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Molecular phylogenetic analysis supports a Gondwanan origin of the Hyriidae (Mollusca: Bivalvia: Unionida) and the paraphyly of Australasian taxa.

PubMed

Graf, Daniel L; Jones, Hugh; Geneva, Anthony J; Pfeiffer, John M; Klunzinger, Michael W

2015-04-01

The freshwater mussel family Hyriidae (Mollusca: Bivalvia: Unionida) has a disjunct trans-Pacific distribution in Australasia and South America. Previous phylogenetic analyses have estimated the evolutionary relationships of the family and the major infra-familial taxa (Velesunioninae and Hyriinae: Hyridellini in Australia; Hyriinae: Hyriini, Castaliini, and Rhipidodontini in South America), but taxon and character sampling have been too incomplete to support a predictive classification or allow testing of biogeographical hypotheses. We sampled 30 freshwater mussel individuals representing the aforementioned hyriid taxa, as well as outgroup species representing the five other freshwater mussel families and their marine sister group (order Trigoniida). Our ingroup included representatives of all Australian genera. Phylogenetic relationships were estimated from three gene fragments (nuclear 28S, COI and 16S mtDNA) using maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference, and we applied a Bayesian relaxed clock model calibrated with fossil dates to estimate node ages. Our analyses found good support for monophyly of the Hyriidae and the subfamilies and tribes, as well as the paraphyly of the Australasian taxa (Velesunioninae, (Hyridellini, (Rhipidodontini, (Castaliini, Hyriini)))). The Hyriidae was recovered as sister to a clade comprised of all other Recent freshwater mussel families. Our molecular date estimation supported Cretaceous origins of the major hyriid clades, pre-dating the Tertiary isolation of South America from Antarctica/Australia. We hypothesize that early diversification of the Hyriidae was driven by terrestrial barriers on Gondwana rather than marine barriers following disintegration of the super-continent. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

REFGEN and TREENAMER: Automated Sequence Data Handling for Phylogenetic Analysis in the Genomic Era

PubMed Central

Leonard, Guy; Stevens, Jamie R.; Richards, Thomas A.

2009-01-01

The phylogenetic analysis of nucleotide sequences and increasingly that of amino acid sequences is used to address a number of biological questions. Access to extensive datasets, including numerous genome projects, means that standard phylogenetic analyses can include many hundreds of sequences. Unfortunately, most phylogenetic analysis programs do not tolerate the sequence naming conventions of genome databases. Managing large numbers of sequences and standardizing sequence labels for use in phylogenetic analysis programs can be a time consuming and laborious task. Here we report the availability of an online resource for the management of gene sequences recovered from public access genome databases such as GenBank. These web utilities include the facility for renaming every sequence in a FASTA alignment file, with each sequence label derived from a user-defined combination of the species name and/or database accession number. This facility enables the user to keep track of the branching order of the sequences/taxa during multiple tree calculations and re-optimisations. Post phylogenetic analysis, these webpages can then be used to rename every label in the subsequent tree files (with a user-defined combination of species name and/or database accession number). Together these programs drastically reduce the time required for managing sequence alignments and labelling phylogenetic figures. Additional features of our platform include the automatic removal of identical accession numbers (recorded in the report file) and generation of species and accession number lists for use in supplementary materials or figure legends. PMID:19812722

Computational Tools for Parsimony Phylogenetic Analysis of Omics Data

PubMed Central

Salazar, Jose; Amri, Hakima; Noursi, David

2015-01-01

Abstract High-throughput assays from genomics, proteomics, metabolomics, and next generation sequencing produce massive omics datasets that are challenging to analyze in biological or clinical contexts. Thus far, there is no publicly available program for converting quantitative omics data into input formats to be used in off-the-shelf robust phylogenetic programs. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report on creation of two Windows-based programs, OmicsTract and SynpExtractor, to address this gap. We note, as a way of introduction and development of these programs, that one particularly useful bioinformatics inferential modeling is the phylogenetic cladogram. Cladograms are multidimensional tools that show the relatedness between subgroups of healthy and diseased individuals and the latter's shared aberrations; they also reveal some characteristics of a disease that would not otherwise be apparent by other analytical methods. The OmicsTract and SynpExtractor were written for the respective tasks of (1) accommodating advanced phylogenetic parsimony analysis (through standard programs of MIX [from PHYLIP] and TNT), and (2) extracting shared aberrations at the cladogram nodes. OmicsTract converts comma-delimited data tables through assigning each data point into a binary value (“0” for normal states and “1” for abnormal states) then outputs the converted data tables into the proper input file formats for MIX or with embedded commands for TNT. SynapExtractor uses outfiles from MIX and TNT to extract the shared aberrations of each node of the cladogram, matching them with identifying labels from the dataset and exporting them into a comma-delimited file. Labels may be gene identifiers in gene-expression datasets or m/z values in mass spectrometry datasets. By automating these steps, OmicsTract and SynpExtractor offer a veritable opportunity for rapid and standardized phylogenetic analyses of omics data; their model can also be extended to next

BATMAN: Bayesian Technique for Multi-image Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casado, J.; Ascasibar, Y.; García-Benito, R.; Guidi, G.; Choudhury, O. S.; Bellocchi, E.; Sánchez, S. F.; Díaz, A. I.

2017-04-01

This paper describes the Bayesian Technique for Multi-image Analysis (BATMAN), a novel image-segmentation technique based on Bayesian statistics that characterizes any astronomical data set containing spatial information and performs a tessellation based on the measurements and errors provided as input. The algorithm iteratively merges spatial elements as long as they are statistically consistent with carrying the same information (I.e. identical signal within the errors). We illustrate its operation and performance with a set of test cases including both synthetic and real integral-field spectroscopic data. The output segmentations adapt to the underlying spatial structure, regardless of its morphology and/or the statistical properties of the noise. The quality of the recovered signal represents an improvement with respect to the input, especially in regions with low signal-to-noise ratio. However, the algorithm may be sensitive to small-scale random fluctuations, and its performance in presence of spatial gradients is limited. Due to these effects, errors may be underestimated by as much as a factor of 2. Our analysis reveals that the algorithm prioritizes conservation of all the statistically significant information over noise reduction, and that the precise choice of the input data has a crucial impact on the results. Hence, the philosophy of BaTMAn is not to be used as a 'black box' to improve the signal-to-noise ratio, but as a new approach to characterize spatially resolved data prior to its analysis. The source code is publicly available at http://astro.ft.uam.es/SELGIFS/BaTMAn.

Bayesian Analysis of Evolutionary Divergence with Genomic Data under Diverse Demographic Models.

PubMed

Chung, Yujin; Hey, Jody

2017-06-01

We present a new Bayesian method for estimating demographic and phylogenetic history using population genomic data. Several key innovations are introduced that allow the study of diverse models within an Isolation-with-Migration framework. The new method implements a 2-step analysis, with an initial Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) phase that samples simple coalescent trees, followed by the calculation of the joint posterior density for the parameters of a demographic model. In step 1, the MCMC sampling phase, the method uses a reduced state space, consisting of coalescent trees without migration paths, and a simple importance sampling distribution without the demography of interest. Once obtained, a single sample of trees can be used in step 2 to calculate the joint posterior density for model parameters under multiple diverse demographic models, without having to repeat MCMC runs. Because migration paths are not included in the state space of the MCMC phase, but rather are handled by analytic integration in step 2 of the analysis, the method is scalable to a large number of loci with excellent MCMC mixing properties. With an implementation of the new method in the computer program MIST, we demonstrate the method's accuracy, scalability, and other advantages using simulated data and DNA sequences of two common chimpanzee subspecies: Pan troglodytes (P. t.) troglodytes and P. t. verus. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Phylogenetic analysis of human immunodeficiency virus type 2 isolated from Cuban individuals.

PubMed

Machado, Liuber Y; Díaz, Héctor M; Noa, Enrique; Martín, Dayamí; Blanco, Madeline; Díaz, Dervel F; Sánchez, Yordank R; Nibot, Carmen; Sánchez, Lourdes; Dubed, Marta

2014-08-01

The presence of infection by human immunodeficiency virus type 2 (HIV-2) in Cuba has been previously documented. However, genetic information on the strains that circulate in the Cuban people is still unknown. The present work constitutes the first study concerning the phylogenetic relationship of HIV-2 Cuban isolates conducted on 13 Cuban patients who were diagnosed with HIV-2. The env sequences were analyzed for the construction of a phylogenetic tree with reference sequences of HIV-2. Phylogenetic analysis of the env gene showed that all the Cuban sequences clustered in group A of HIV-2. The analysis indicated several independent introductions of HIV-2 into Cuba. The results of the study will reinforce the program on the epidemiological surveillance of the infection in Cuba and make possible further molecular evolutionary studies.

Variational Bayesian Learning for Wavelet Independent Component Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roussos, E.; Roberts, S.; Daubechies, I.

2005-11-01

In an exploratory approach to data analysis, it is often useful to consider the observations as generated from a set of latent generators or "sources" via a generally unknown mapping. For the noisy overcomplete case, where we have more sources than observations, the problem becomes extremely ill-posed. Solutions to such inverse problems can, in many cases, be achieved by incorporating prior knowledge about the problem, captured in the form of constraints. This setting is a natural candidate for the application of the Bayesian methodology, allowing us to incorporate "soft" constraints in a natural manner. The work described in this paper is mainly driven by problems in functional magnetic resonance imaging of the brain, for the neuro-scientific goal of extracting relevant "maps" from the data. This can be stated as a `blind' source separation problem. Recent experiments in the field of neuroscience show that these maps are sparse, in some appropriate sense. The separation problem can be solved by independent component analysis (ICA), viewed as a technique for seeking sparse components, assuming appropriate distributions for the sources. We derive a hybrid wavelet-ICA model, transforming the signals into a domain where the modeling assumption of sparsity of the coefficients with respect to a dictionary is natural. We follow a graphical modeling formalism, viewing ICA as a probabilistic generative model. We use hierarchical source and mixing models and apply Bayesian inference to the problem. This allows us to perform model selection in order to infer the complexity of the representation, as well as automatic denoising. Since exact inference and learning in such a model is intractable, we follow a variational Bayesian mean-field approach in the conjugate-exponential family of distributions, for efficient unsupervised learning in multi-dimensional settings. The performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated on some representative experiments.

RECONSTRUCTING EXPOSURE SCENARIOS USING DOSE BIOMARKERS - AN APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

We use Bayesian uncertainty analysis to explore how to estimate pollutant exposures from biomarker concentrations. The growing number of national databases with exposure data makes such an analysis possible. They contain datasets of pharmacokinetic biomarkers for many polluta...

An Exploratory Study Examining the Feasibility of Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Circuit Analysis Understanding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chung, Gregory K. W. K.; Dionne, Gary B.; Kaiser, William J.

2006-01-01

Our research question was whether we could develop a feasible technique, using Bayesian networks, to diagnose gaps in student knowledge. Thirty-four college-age participants completed tasks designed to measure conceptual knowledge, procedural knowledge, and problem-solving skills related to circuit analysis. A Bayesian network was used to model…

Coalescent methods for estimating phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Liu, Liang; Yu, Lili; Kubatko, Laura; Pearl, Dennis K; Edwards, Scott V

2009-10-01

We review recent models to estimate phylogenetic trees under the multispecies coalescent. Although the distinction between gene trees and species trees has come to the fore of phylogenetics, only recently have methods been developed that explicitly estimate species trees. Of the several factors that can cause gene tree heterogeneity and discordance with the species tree, deep coalescence due to random genetic drift in branches of the species tree has been modeled most thoroughly. Bayesian approaches to estimating species trees utilizes two likelihood functions, one of which has been widely used in traditional phylogenetics and involves the model of nucleotide substitution, and the second of which is less familiar to phylogeneticists and involves the probability distribution of gene trees given a species tree. Other recent parametric and nonparametric methods for estimating species trees involve parsimony criteria, summary statistics, supertree and consensus methods. Species tree approaches are an appropriate goal for systematics, appear to work well in some cases where concatenation can be misleading, and suggest that sampling many independent loci will be paramount. Such methods can also be challenging to implement because of the complexity of the models and computational time. In addition, further elaboration of the simplest of coalescent models will be required to incorporate commonly known issues such as deviation from the molecular clock, gene flow and other genetic forces.

A Pragmatic Bayesian Perspective on Correlation Analysis. The exoplanetary gravity - stellar activity case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figueira, P.; Faria, J. P.; Adibekyan, V. Zh.; Oshagh, M.; Santos, N. C.

2016-11-01

We apply the Bayesian framework to assess the presence of a correlation between two quantities. To do so, we estimate the probability distribution of the parameter of interest, ρ, characterizing the strength of the correlation. We provide an implementation of these ideas and concepts using python programming language and the pyMC module in a very short (˜ 130 lines of code, heavily commented) and user-friendly program. We used this tool to assess the presence and properties of the correlation between planetary surface gravity and stellar activity level as measured by the log(R^' }_{ {HK}}) indicator. The results of the Bayesian analysis are qualitatively similar to those obtained via p-value analysis, and support the presence of a correlation in the data. The results are more robust in their derivation and more informative, revealing interesting features such as asymmetric posterior distributions or markedly different credible intervals, and allowing for a deeper exploration. We encourage the reader interested in this kind of problem to apply our code to his/her own scientific problems. The full understanding of what the Bayesian framework is can only be gained through the insight that comes by handling priors, assessing the convergence of Monte Carlo runs, and a multitude of other practical problems. We hope to contribute so that Bayesian analysis becomes a tool in the toolkit of researchers, and they understand by experience its advantages and limitations.

Evolution & Phylogenetic Analysis: Classroom Activities for Investigating Molecular & Morphological Concepts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Franklin, Wilfred A.

2010-01-01

In a flexible multisession laboratory, students investigate concepts of phylogenetic analysis at both the molecular and the morphological level. Students finish by conducting their own analysis on a collection of skeletons representing the major phyla of vertebrates, a collection of primate skulls, or a collection of hominid skulls.

Accurate Phylogenetic Tree Reconstruction from Quartets: A Heuristic Approach

PubMed Central

Reaz, Rezwana; Bayzid, Md. Shamsuzzoha; Rahman, M. Sohel

2014-01-01

Supertree methods construct trees on a set of taxa (species) combining many smaller trees on the overlapping subsets of the entire set of taxa. A ‘quartet’ is an unrooted tree over taxa, hence the quartet-based supertree methods combine many -taxon unrooted trees into a single and coherent tree over the complete set of taxa. Quartet-based phylogeny reconstruction methods have been receiving considerable attentions in the recent years. An accurate and efficient quartet-based method might be competitive with the current best phylogenetic tree reconstruction methods (such as maximum likelihood or Bayesian MCMC analyses), without being as computationally intensive. In this paper, we present a novel and highly accurate quartet-based phylogenetic tree reconstruction method. We performed an extensive experimental study to evaluate the accuracy and scalability of our approach on both simulated and biological datasets. PMID:25117474

Bayesian Analysis of High Dimensional Classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhopadhyay, Subhadeep; Liang, Faming

2009-12-01

Modern data mining and bioinformatics have presented an important playground for statistical learning techniques, where the number of input variables is possibly much larger than the sample size of the training data. In supervised learning, logistic regression or probit regression can be used to model a binary output and form perceptron classification rules based on Bayesian inference. In these cases , there is a lot of interest in searching for sparse model in High Dimensional regression(/classification) setup. we first discuss two common challenges for analyzing high dimensional data. The first one is the curse of dimensionality. The complexity of many existing algorithms scale exponentially with the dimensionality of the space and by virtue of that algorithms soon become computationally intractable and therefore inapplicable in many real applications. secondly, multicollinearities among the predictors which severely slowdown the algorithm. In order to make Bayesian analysis operational in high dimension we propose a novel 'Hierarchical stochastic approximation monte carlo algorithm' (HSAMC), which overcomes the curse of dimensionality, multicollinearity of predictors in high dimension and also it possesses the self-adjusting mechanism to avoid the local minima separated by high energy barriers. Models and methods are illustrated by simulation inspired from from the feild of genomics. Numerical results indicate that HSAMC can work as a general model selection sampler in high dimensional complex model space.

Phylogenetic analysis of the envelope protein (domain lll) of dengue 4 viruses

PubMed Central

Mota, Javier; Ramos-Castañeda, José; Rico-Hesse, Rebeca; Ramos, Celso

2011-01-01

Objective To evaluate the genetic variability of domain III of envelope (E) protein and to estimate phylogenetic relationships of dengue 4 (Den-4) viruses isolated in Mexico and from other endemic areas of the world. Material and Methods A phylogenetic study of domain III of envelope (E) protein of Den-4 viruses was conducted in 1998 using virus strains from Mexico and other parts of the world, isolated in different years. Specific primers were used to amplify by RT-PCR the domain III and to obtain nucleotide sequence. Based on nucleotide and deduced aminoacid sequence, genetic variability was estimated and a phylogenetic tree was generated. To make an easy genetic analysis of domain III region, a Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (RFLP) assay was performed, using six restriction enzymes. Results Study results demonstrate that nucleotide and aminoacid sequence analysis of domain III are similar to those reported from the complete E protein gene. Based on the RFLP analysis of domain III using the restriction enzymes Nla III, Dde I and Cfo I, Den-4 viruses included in this study were clustered into genotypes 1 and 2 previously reported. Conclusions Study results suggest that domain III may be used as a genetic marker for phylogenetic and molecular epidemiology studies of dengue viruses. The English version of this paper is available too at: http://www.insp.mx/salud/index.html PMID:12132320

A default Bayesian hypothesis test for mediation.

PubMed

Nuijten, Michèle B; Wetzels, Ruud; Matzke, Dora; Dolan, Conor V; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2015-03-01

In order to quantify the relationship between multiple variables, researchers often carry out a mediation analysis. In such an analysis, a mediator (e.g., knowledge of a healthy diet) transmits the effect from an independent variable (e.g., classroom instruction on a healthy diet) to a dependent variable (e.g., consumption of fruits and vegetables). Almost all mediation analyses in psychology use frequentist estimation and hypothesis-testing techniques. A recent exception is Yuan and MacKinnon (Psychological Methods, 14, 301-322, 2009), who outlined a Bayesian parameter estimation procedure for mediation analysis. Here we complete the Bayesian alternative to frequentist mediation analysis by specifying a default Bayesian hypothesis test based on the Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow approach. We further extend this default Bayesian test by allowing a comparison to directional or one-sided alternatives, using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques implemented in JAGS. All Bayesian tests are implemented in the R package BayesMed (Nuijten, Wetzels, Matzke, Dolan, & Wagenmakers, 2014).

Bayesian Analysis of Biogeography when the Number of Areas is Large

PubMed Central

Landis, Michael J.; Matzke, Nicholas J.; Moore, Brian R.; Huelsenbeck, John P.

2013-01-01

Historical biogeography is increasingly studied from an explicitly statistical perspective, using stochastic models to describe the evolution of species range as a continuous-time Markov process of dispersal between and extinction within a set of discrete geographic areas. The main constraint of these methods is the computational limit on the number of areas that can be specified. We propose a Bayesian approach for inferring biogeographic history that extends the application of biogeographic models to the analysis of more realistic problems that involve a large number of areas. Our solution is based on a “data-augmentation” approach, in which we first populate the tree with a history of biogeographic events that is consistent with the observed species ranges at the tips of the tree. We then calculate the likelihood of a given history by adopting a mechanistic interpretation of the instantaneous-rate matrix, which specifies both the exponential waiting times between biogeographic events and the relative probabilities of each biogeographic change. We develop this approach in a Bayesian framework, marginalizing over all possible biogeographic histories using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Besides dramatically increasing the number of areas that can be accommodated in a biogeographic analysis, our method allows the parameters of a given biogeographic model to be estimated and different biogeographic models to be objectively compared. Our approach is implemented in the program, BayArea. [ancestral area analysis; Bayesian biogeographic inference; data augmentation; historical biogeography; Markov chain Monte Carlo.] PMID:23736102

Bayesian Factor Analysis When Only a Sample Covariance Matrix Is Available

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayashi, Kentaro; Arav, Marina

2006-01-01

In traditional factor analysis, the variance-covariance matrix or the correlation matrix has often been a form of inputting data. In contrast, in Bayesian factor analysis, the entire data set is typically required to compute the posterior estimates, such as Bayes factor loadings and Bayes unique variances. We propose a simple method for computing…

Diagnostic accuracy of a bayesian latent group analysis for the detection of malingering-related poor effort.

PubMed

Ortega, Alonso; Labrenz, Stephan; Markowitsch, Hans J; Piefke, Martina

2013-01-01

In the last decade, different statistical techniques have been introduced to improve assessment of malingering-related poor effort. In this context, we have recently shown preliminary evidence that a Bayesian latent group model may help to optimize classification accuracy using a simulation research design. In the present study, we conducted two analyses. Firstly, we evaluated how accurately this Bayesian approach can distinguish between participants answering in an honest way (honest response group) and participants feigning cognitive impairment (experimental malingering group). Secondly, we tested the accuracy of our model in the differentiation between patients who had real cognitive deficits (cognitively impaired group) and participants who belonged to the experimental malingering group. All Bayesian analyses were conducted using the raw scores of a visual recognition forced-choice task (2AFC), the Test of Memory Malingering (TOMM, Trial 2), and the Word Memory Test (WMT, primary effort subtests). The first analysis showed 100% accuracy for the Bayesian model in distinguishing participants of both groups with all effort measures. The second analysis showed outstanding overall accuracy of the Bayesian model when estimates were obtained from the 2AFC and the TOMM raw scores. Diagnostic accuracy of the Bayesian model diminished when using the WMT total raw scores. Despite, overall diagnostic accuracy can still be considered excellent. The most plausible explanation for this decrement is the low performance in verbal recognition and fluency tasks of some patients of the cognitively impaired group. Additionally, the Bayesian model provides individual estimates, p(zi |D), of examinees' effort levels. In conclusion, both high classification accuracy levels and Bayesian individual estimates of effort may be very useful for clinicians when assessing for effort in medico-legal settings.

Convergence analysis of surrogate-based methods for Bayesian inverse problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Liang; Zhang, Yuan-Xiang

2017-12-01

The major challenges in the Bayesian inverse problems arise from the need for repeated evaluations of the forward model, as required by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for posterior sampling. Many attempts at accelerating Bayesian inference have relied on surrogates for the forward model, typically constructed through repeated forward simulations that are performed in an offline phase. Although such approaches can be quite effective at reducing computation cost, there has been little analysis of the approximation on posterior inference. In this work, we prove error bounds on the Kullback-Leibler (KL) distance between the true posterior distribution and the approximation based on surrogate models. Our rigorous error analysis show that if the forward model approximation converges at certain rate in the prior-weighted L 2 norm, then the posterior distribution generated by the approximation converges to the true posterior at least two times faster in the KL sense. The error bound on the Hellinger distance is also provided. To provide concrete examples focusing on the use of the surrogate model based methods, we present an efficient technique for constructing stochastic surrogate models to accelerate the Bayesian inference approach. The Christoffel least squares algorithms, based on generalized polynomial chaos, are used to construct a polynomial approximation of the forward solution over the support of the prior distribution. The numerical strategy and the predicted convergence rates are then demonstrated on the nonlinear inverse problems, involving the inference of parameters appearing in partial differential equations.

Your place or mine? A phylogenetic comparative analysis of marital residence in Indo-European and Austronesian societies

PubMed Central

Fortunato, Laura; Jordan, Fiona

2010-01-01

Accurate reconstruction of prehistoric social organization is important if we are to put together satisfactory multidisciplinary scenarios about, for example, the dispersal of human groups. Such considerations apply in the case of Indo-European and Austronesian, two large-scale language families that are thought to represent Neolithic expansions. Ancestral kinship patterns have mostly been inferred through reconstruction of kin terminologies in ancestral proto-languages using the linguistic comparative method, and through geographical or distributional arguments based on the comparative patterns of kin terms and ethnographic kinship ‘facts’. While these approaches are detailed and valuable, the processes through which conclusions have been drawn from the data fail to provide explicit criteria for systematic testing of alternative hypotheses. Here, we use language trees derived using phylogenetic tree-building techniques on Indo-European and Austronesian vocabulary data. With these trees, ethnographic data and Bayesian phylogenetic comparative methods, we statistically reconstruct past marital residence and infer rates of cultural change between different residence forms, showing Proto-Indo-European to be virilocal and Proto-Malayo-Polynesian uxorilocal. The instability of uxorilocality and the rare loss of virilocality once gained emerge as common features of both families. PMID:21041215

Applications of Bayesian Procrustes shape analysis to ensemble radar reflectivity nowcast verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, Neil I.; Micheas, Athanasios C.; Peng, Yuqiang

2016-07-01

This paper introduces the use of Bayesian full Procrustes shape analysis in object-oriented meteorological applications. In particular, the Procrustes methodology is used to generate mean forecast precipitation fields from a set of ensemble forecasts. This approach has advantages over other ensemble averaging techniques in that it can produce a forecast that retains the morphological features of the precipitation structures and present the range of forecast outcomes represented by the ensemble. The production of the ensemble mean avoids the problems of smoothing that result from simple pixel or cell averaging, while producing credible sets that retain information on ensemble spread. Also in this paper, the full Bayesian Procrustes scheme is used as an object verification tool for precipitation forecasts. This is an extension of a previously presented Procrustes shape analysis based verification approach into a full Bayesian format designed to handle the verification of precipitation forecasts that match objects from an ensemble of forecast fields to a single truth image. The methodology is tested on radar reflectivity nowcasts produced in the Warning Decision Support System - Integrated Information (WDSS-II) by varying parameters in the K-means cluster tracking scheme.

Evidence of transoceanic dispersion of the genus Vanilla based on plastid DNA phylogenetic analysis.

PubMed

Bouetard, Anthony; Lefeuvre, Pierre; Gigant, Rodolphe; Bory, Séverine; Pignal, Marc; Besse, Pascale; Grisoni, Michel

2010-05-01

The phylogeny and the biogeographical history of the genus Vanilla was investigated using four chloroplastic genes (psbB, psbC; psaB and rbcL), on 47 accessions of Vanilla chosen from the ex situ CIRAD collection maintained in Reunion Island and additional sequences from GenBank. Bayesian methods provided a fairly well supported reconstruction of the phylogeny of the Vanilloideae sub-family and more particularly of the genus Vanilla. Three major phylogenetic groups in the genus Vanilla were differentiated, which is in disagreement with the actual classification in two sections (Foliosae and Aphyllae) based on morphological traits. Recent Bayesian relaxed molecular clock methods allowed to test the two main hypotheses of the phylogeography of the genus Vanilla. Early radiation of the Vanilla genus and diversification by vicariance consecutive to the break-up of Gondwana, 95 million years ago (Mya), was incompatible with the admitted age of origin of Angiosperm. Based on the Vanilloideae age recently estimated to 71 million years ago (Mya), we conclude that the genus Vanilla would have appeared approximately 34 Mya in South America, when continents were already separated. Nevertheless, whatever the two extreme scenarios tested, at least three long distance migration events are needed to explain the present distribution of Vanilla species in tropical areas. These transoceanic dispersions could have occurred via transoceanic passageway such as the Rio Grande Ridge and the involvement of floating vegetation mats and migratory birds. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian analysis of time-series data under case-crossover designs: posterior equivalence and inference.

PubMed

Li, Shi; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Batterman, Stuart; Ghosh, Malay

2013-12-01

Case-crossover designs are widely used to study short-term exposure effects on the risk of acute adverse health events. While the frequentist literature on this topic is vast, there is no Bayesian work in this general area. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, the paper establishes Bayesian equivalence results that require characterization of the set of priors under which the posterior distributions of the risk ratio parameters based on a case-crossover and time-series analysis are identical. Second, the paper studies inferential issues under case-crossover designs in a Bayesian framework. Traditionally, a conditional logistic regression is used for inference on risk-ratio parameters in case-crossover studies. We consider instead a more general full likelihood-based approach which makes less restrictive assumptions on the risk functions. Formulation of a full likelihood leads to growth in the number of parameters proportional to the sample size. We propose a semi-parametric Bayesian approach using a Dirichlet process prior to handle the random nuisance parameters that appear in a full likelihood formulation. We carry out a simulation study to compare the Bayesian methods based on full and conditional likelihood with the standard frequentist approaches for case-crossover and time-series analysis. The proposed methods are illustrated through the Detroit Asthma Morbidity, Air Quality and Traffic study, which examines the association between acute asthma risk and ambient air pollutant concentrations. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

A Comparison of Imputation Methods for Bayesian Factor Analysis Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merkle, Edgar C.

2011-01-01

Imputation methods are popular for the handling of missing data in psychology. The methods generally consist of predicting missing data based on observed data, yielding a complete data set that is amiable to standard statistical analyses. In the context of Bayesian factor analysis, this article compares imputation under an unrestricted…

Toward an ecological analysis of Bayesian inferences: how task characteristics influence responses

PubMed Central

Hafenbrädl, Sebastian; Hoffrage, Ulrich

2015-01-01

In research on Bayesian inferences, the specific tasks, with their narratives and characteristics, are typically seen as exchangeable vehicles that merely transport the structure of the problem to research participants. In the present paper, we explore whether, and possibly how, task characteristics that are usually ignored influence participants’ responses in these tasks. We focus on both quantitative dimensions of the tasks, such as their base rates, hit rates, and false-alarm rates, as well as qualitative characteristics, such as whether the task involves a norm violation or not, whether the stakes are high or low, and whether the focus is on the individual case or on the numbers. Using a data set of 19 different tasks presented to 500 different participants who provided a total of 1,773 responses, we analyze these responses in two ways: first, on the level of the numerical estimates themselves, and second, on the level of various response strategies, Bayesian and non-Bayesian, that might have produced the estimates. We identified various contingencies, and most of the task characteristics had an influence on participants’ responses. Typically, this influence has been stronger when the numerical information in the tasks was presented in terms of probabilities or percentages, compared to natural frequencies – and this effect cannot be fully explained by a higher proportion of Bayesian responses when natural frequencies were used. One characteristic that did not seem to influence participants’ response strategy was the numerical value of the Bayesian solution itself. Our exploratory study is a first step toward an ecological analysis of Bayesian inferences, and highlights new avenues for future research. PMID:26300791

Phylogenetic relationships of South American lizards of the genus Stenocercus (Squamata: Iguania): A new approach using a general mixture model for gene sequence data.

PubMed

Torres-Carvajal, Omar; Schulte, James A; Cadle, John E

2006-04-01

The South American iguanian lizard genus Stenocercus includes 54 species occurring mostly in the Andes and adjacent lowland areas from northern Venezuela and Colombia to central Argentina at elevations of 0-4000m. Small taxon or character sampling has characterized all phylogenetic analyses of Stenocercus, which has long been recognized as sister taxon to the Tropidurus Group. In this study, we use mtDNA sequence data to perform phylogenetic analyses that include 32 species of Stenocercus and 12 outgroup taxa. Monophyly of this genus is strongly supported by maximum parsimony and Bayesian analyses. Evolutionary relationships within Stenocercus are further analyzed with a Bayesian implementation of a general mixture model, which accommodates variability in the pattern of evolution across sites. These analyses indicate a basal split of Stenocercus into two clades, one of which receives very strong statistical support. In addition, we test previous hypotheses using non-parametric and parametric statistical methods, and provide a phylogenetic classification for Stenocercus.

An efficient Bayesian meta-analysis approach for studying cross-phenotype genetic associations

PubMed Central

Majumdar, Arunabha; Haldar, Tanushree; Bhattacharya, Sourabh; Witte, John S.

2018-01-01

Simultaneous analysis of genetic associations with multiple phenotypes may reveal shared genetic susceptibility across traits (pleiotropy). For a locus exhibiting overall pleiotropy, it is important to identify which specific traits underlie this association. We propose a Bayesian meta-analysis approach (termed CPBayes) that uses summary-level data across multiple phenotypes to simultaneously measure the evidence of aggregate-level pleiotropic association and estimate an optimal subset of traits associated with the risk locus. This method uses a unified Bayesian statistical framework based on a spike and slab prior. CPBayes performs a fully Bayesian analysis by employing the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique Gibbs sampling. It takes into account heterogeneity in the size and direction of the genetic effects across traits. It can be applied to both cohort data and separate studies of multiple traits having overlapping or non-overlapping subjects. Simulations show that CPBayes can produce higher accuracy in the selection of associated traits underlying a pleiotropic signal than the subset-based meta-analysis ASSET. We used CPBayes to undertake a genome-wide pleiotropic association study of 22 traits in the large Kaiser GERA cohort and detected six independent pleiotropic loci associated with at least two phenotypes. This includes a locus at chromosomal region 1q24.2 which exhibits an association simultaneously with the risk of five different diseases: Dermatophytosis, Hemorrhoids, Iron Deficiency, Osteoporosis and Peripheral Vascular Disease. We provide an R-package ‘CPBayes’ implementing the proposed method. PMID:29432419

DATMAN: A reliability data analysis program using Bayesian updating

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Becker, M.; Feltus, M.A.

1996-12-31

Preventive maintenance (PM) techniques focus on the prevention of failures, in particular, system components that are important to plant functions. Reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) improves on the PM techniques by introducing a set of guidelines by which to evaluate the system functions. It also minimizes intrusive maintenance, labor, and equipment downtime without sacrificing system performance when its function is essential for plant safety. Both the PM and RCM approaches require that system reliability data be updated as more component failures and operation time are acquired. Systems reliability and the likelihood of component failures can be calculated by Bayesian statistical methods, whichmore » can update these data. The DATMAN computer code has been developed at Penn State to simplify the Bayesian analysis by performing tedious calculations needed for RCM reliability analysis. DATMAN reads data for updating, fits a distribution that best fits the data, and calculates component reliability. DATMAN provides a user-friendly interface menu that allows the user to choose from several common prior and posterior distributions, insert new failure data, and visually select the distribution that matches the data most accurately.« less

Bayesian analysis of physiologically based toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic models.

PubMed

Hack, C Eric

2006-04-17

Physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) and toxicodynamic (TD) models of bromate in animals and humans would improve our ability to accurately estimate the toxic doses in humans based on available animal studies. These mathematical models are often highly parameterized and must be calibrated in order for the model predictions of internal dose to adequately fit the experimentally measured doses. Highly parameterized models are difficult to calibrate and it is difficult to obtain accurate estimates of uncertainty or variability in model parameters with commonly used frequentist calibration methods, such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) or least squared error approaches. The Bayesian approach called Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis can be used to successfully calibrate these complex models. Prior knowledge about the biological system and associated model parameters is easily incorporated in this approach in the form of prior parameter distributions, and the distributions are refined or updated using experimental data to generate posterior distributions of parameter estimates. The goal of this paper is to give the non-mathematician a brief description of the Bayesian approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis, how this technique is used in risk assessment, and the issues associated with this approach.

Climate and life-history evolution in evening primroses (Oenothera, Onagraceae): a phylogenetic comparative analysis.

PubMed

Evans, Margaret E K; Hearn, David J; Hahn, William J; Spangle, Jennifer M; Venable, D Lawrence

2005-09-01

Evolutionary ecologists have long sought to understand the conditions under which perennial (iteroparous) versus annual (semelparous) plant life histories are favored. We evaluated the idea that aridity and variation in the length of droughts should favor the evolution of an annual life history, both by decreasing adult survival and by increasing the potential for high seedling survival via reduced plant cover. We calculated phylogenetically independent contrasts of climate with respect to life history in a clade of winter-establishing evening primroses (sections Anogra and Kleinia; Oenothera; Onagraceae), which includes seven annuals, 12 perennials, and two variable taxa. Climate variables were quantified from long-term records at weather stations near collection localities. To explicitly account for phylogenetic uncertainty, contrasts were calculated on a random sample of phylogenetic trees from the posterior distribution of a Bayesian analysis of DNA sequence data. Statements of association are based on comparing the per-tree mean contrast, which has a null expectation of zero, to a set of per-tree mean contrasts calculated on the same trees, after randomizing the climate data. As predicted, increased annual aridity, increased annual potential evapotranspiration, and decreased annual precipitation were associated with transitions to the annual habit, but these trends were not significantly different from the null pattern. Transitions to the annual habit were not significantly associated with increases in one measure of aridity in summer nor with increased summer drought, but they were associated with significantly increased maximum summer temperatures. In winter, increased aridity and decreased precipitation were significantly associated with transitions to the annual habit. Changes in life history were not significantly associated with changes in the coefficient of variation of precipitation, either on an annual or seasonal (summer vs. winter) basis. Though we

Molecular Phylogenetics: Concepts for a Newcomer.

PubMed

Ajawatanawong, Pravech

Molecular phylogenetics is the study of evolutionary relationships among organisms using molecular sequence data. The aim of this review is to introduce the important terminology and general concepts of tree reconstruction to biologists who lack a strong background in the field of molecular evolution. Some modern phylogenetic programs are easy to use because of their user-friendly interfaces, but understanding the phylogenetic algorithms and substitution models, which are based on advanced statistics, is still important for the analysis and interpretation without a guide. Briefly, there are five general steps in carrying out a phylogenetic analysis: (1) sequence data preparation, (2) sequence alignment, (3) choosing a phylogenetic reconstruction method, (4) identification of the best tree, and (5) evaluating the tree. Concepts in this review enable biologists to grasp the basic ideas behind phylogenetic analysis and also help provide a sound basis for discussions with expert phylogeneticists.

Phylogenetic study of Oryzoideae species and related taxa of the Poaceae based on atpB-rbcL and ndhF DNA sequences.

PubMed

Zeng, Xu; Yuan, Zhengrong; Tong, Xin; Li, Qiushi; Gao, Weiwei; Qin, Minjian; Liu, Zhihua

2012-05-01

Oryzoideae (Poaceae) plants have economic and ecological value. However, the phylogenetic position of some plants is not clear, such as Hygroryza aristata (Retz.) Nees. and Porteresia coarctata (Roxb.) Tateoka (syn. Oryza coarctata). Comprehensive molecular phylogenetic studies have been carried out on many genera in the Poaceae. The different DNA sequences, including nuclear and chloroplast sequences, had been extensively employed to determine relationships at both higher and lower taxonomic levels in the Poaceae. Chloroplast DNA ndhF gene and atpB-rbcL spacer were used to construct phylogenetic trees and estimate the divergence time of Oryzoideae, Bambusoideae, Panicoideae, Pooideae and so on. Complete sequences of atpB-rbcL and ndhF were generated for 17 species representing six species of the Oryzoideae and related subfamilies. Nicotiana tabacum L. was the outgroup species. The two DNA datasets were analyzed, using Maximum Parsimony and Bayesian analysis methods. The molecular phylogeny revealed that H. aristata (Retz.) Nees was the sister to Chikusichloa aquatica Koidz. Moreover, P. coarctata (Roxb.) Tateoka was in the genus Oryza. Furthermore, the result of evolution analysis, which based on the ndhF marker, indicated that the time of origin of Oryzoideae might be 31 million years ago.

Bayesian analysis of U.S. hurricane climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elsner, James B.; Bossak, Brian H.

2001-01-01

Predictive climate distributions of U.S. landfalling hurricanes are estimated from observational records over the period 1851–2000. The approach is Bayesian, combining the reliable records of hurricane activity during the twentieth century with the less precise accounts of activity during the nineteenth century to produce a best estimate of the posterior distribution on the annual rates. The methodology provides a predictive distribution of future activity that serves as a climatological benchmark. Results are presented for the entire coast as well as for the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the East Coast. Statistics on the observed annual counts of U.S. hurricanes, both for the entire coast and by region, are similar within each of the three consecutive 50-yr periods beginning in 1851. However, evidence indicates that the records during the nineteenth century are less precise. Bayesian theory provides a rational approach for defining hurricane climate that uses all available information and that makes no assumption about whether the 150-yr record of hurricanes has been adequately or uniformly monitored. The analysis shows that the number of major hurricanes expected to reach the U.S. coast over the next 30 yr is 18 and the number of hurricanes expected to hit Florida is 20.

Pathway analysis of high-throughput biological data within a Bayesian network framework.

PubMed

Isci, Senol; Ozturk, Cengizhan; Jones, Jon; Otu, Hasan H

2011-06-15

Most current approaches to high-throughput biological data (HTBD) analysis either perform individual gene/protein analysis or, gene/protein set enrichment analysis for a list of biologically relevant molecules. Bayesian Networks (BNs) capture linear and non-linear interactions, handle stochastic events accounting for noise, and focus on local interactions, which can be related to causal inference. Here, we describe for the first time an algorithm that models biological pathways as BNs and identifies pathways that best explain given HTBD by scoring fitness of each network. Proposed method takes into account the connectivity and relatedness between nodes of the pathway through factoring pathway topology in its model. Our simulations using synthetic data demonstrated robustness of our approach. We tested proposed method, Bayesian Pathway Analysis (BPA), on human microarray data regarding renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and compared our results with gene set enrichment analysis. BPA was able to find broader and more specific pathways related to RCC. Accompanying BPA software (BPAS) package is freely available for academic use at http://bumil.boun.edu.tr/bpa.

A Bayesian Multinomial Probit MODEL FOR THE ANALYSIS OF PANEL CHOICE DATA.

PubMed

Fong, Duncan K H; Kim, Sunghoon; Chen, Zhe; DeSarbo, Wayne S

2016-03-01

A new Bayesian multinomial probit model is proposed for the analysis of panel choice data. Using a parameter expansion technique, we are able to devise a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to compute our Bayesian estimates efficiently. We also show that the proposed procedure enables the estimation of individual level coefficients for the single-period multinomial probit model even when the available prior information is vague. We apply our new procedure to consumer purchase data and reanalyze a well-known scanner panel dataset that reveals new substantive insights. In addition, we delineate a number of advantageous features of our proposed procedure over several benchmark models. Finally, through a simulation analysis employing a fractional factorial design, we demonstrate that the results from our proposed model are quite robust with respect to differing factors across various conditions.

Phylogenetic analysis reveals a scattered distribution of autumn colours

PubMed Central

Archetti, Marco

2009-01-01

Background and Aims Leaf colour in autumn is rarely considered informative for taxonomy, but there is now growing interest in the evolution of autumn colours and different hypotheses are debated. Research efforts are hindered by the lack of basic information: the phylogenetic distribution of autumn colours. It is not known when and how autumn colours evolved. Methods Data are reported on the autumn colours of 2368 tree species belonging to 400 genera of the temperate regions of the world, and an analysis is made of their phylogenetic relationships in order to reconstruct the evolutionary origin of red and yellow in autumn leaves. Key Results Red autumn colours are present in at least 290 species (70 genera), and evolved independently at least 25 times. Yellow is present independently from red in at least 378 species (97 genera) and evolved at least 28 times. Conclusions The phylogenetic reconstruction suggests that autumn colours have been acquired and lost many times during evolution. This scattered distribution could be explained by hypotheses involving some kind of coevolutionary interaction or by hypotheses that rely on the need for photoprotection. PMID:19126636

Phylogenetic analysis of nitrite, nitric oxide, and nitrous oxide respiratory enzymes reveal a complex evolutionary history for denitrification.

PubMed

Jones, Christopher M; Stres, Blaz; Rosenquist, Magnus; Hallin, Sara

2008-09-01

Denitrification is a facultative respiratory pathway in which nitrite (NO2(-)), nitric oxide (NO), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are successively reduced to nitrogen gas (N(2)), effectively closing the nitrogen cycle. The ability to denitrify is widely dispersed among prokaryotes, and this polyphyletic distribution has raised the possibility of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) having a substantial role in the evolution of denitrification. Comparisons of 16S rRNA and denitrification gene phylogenies in recent studies support this possibility; however, these results remain speculative as they are based on visual comparisons of phylogenies from partial sequences. We reanalyzed publicly available nirS, nirK, norB, and nosZ partial sequences using Bayesian and maximum likelihood phylogenetic inference. Concomitant analysis of denitrification genes with 16S rRNA sequences from the same organisms showed substantial differences between the trees, which were supported by examining the posterior probability of monophyletic constraints at different taxonomic levels. Although these differences suggest HGT of denitrification genes, the presence of structural variants for nirK, norB, and nosZ makes it difficult to determine HGT from other evolutionary events. Additional analysis using phylogenetic networks and likelihood ratio tests of phylogenies based on full-length sequences retrieved from genomes also revealed significant differences in tree topologies among denitrification and 16S rRNA gene phylogenies, with the exception of the nosZ gene phylogeny within the data set of the nirK-harboring genomes. However, inspection of codon usage and G + C content plots from complete genomes gave no evidence for recent HGT. Instead, the close proximity of denitrification gene copies in the genomes of several denitrifying bacteria suggests duplication. Although HGT cannot be ruled out as a factor in the evolution of denitrification genes, our analysis suggests that other phenomena, such gene

Bayesian tomography and integrated data analysis in fusion diagnostics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Dong, E-mail: lid@swip.ac.cn; Dong, Y. B.; Deng, Wei

2016-11-15

In this article, a Bayesian tomography method using non-stationary Gaussian process for a prior has been introduced. The Bayesian formalism allows quantities which bear uncertainty to be expressed in the probabilistic form so that the uncertainty of a final solution can be fully resolved from the confidence interval of a posterior probability. Moreover, a consistency check of that solution can be performed by checking whether the misfits between predicted and measured data are reasonably within an assumed data error. In particular, the accuracy of reconstructions is significantly improved by using the non-stationary Gaussian process that can adapt to the varyingmore » smoothness of emission distribution. The implementation of this method to a soft X-ray diagnostics on HL-2A has been used to explore relevant physics in equilibrium and MHD instability modes. This project is carried out within a large size inference framework, aiming at an integrated analysis of heterogeneous diagnostics.« less

Prior approval: the growth of Bayesian methods in psychology.

PubMed

Andrews, Mark; Baguley, Thom

2013-02-01

Within the last few years, Bayesian methods of data analysis in psychology have proliferated. In this paper, we briefly review the history or the Bayesian approach to statistics, and consider the implications that Bayesian methods have for the theory and practice of data analysis in psychology.

GENOME-WIDE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF PHYLOGENETIC TREES: THE PROKARYOTIC FOREST OF LIFE

PubMed Central

Puigbò, Pere; Wolf, Yuri I.; Koonin, Eugene V.

2013-01-01

Genome-wide comparison of phylogenetic trees is becoming an increasingly common approach in evolutionary genomics, and a variety of approaches for such comparison have been developed. In this article we present several methods for comparative analysis of large numbers of phylogenetic trees. To compare phylogenetic trees taking into account the bootstrap support for each internal branch, the Boot-Split Distance (BSD) method is introduced as an extension of the previously developed Split Distance (SD) method for tree comparison. The BSD method implements the straightforward idea that comparison of phylogenetic trees can be made more robust by treating tree splits differentially depending on the bootstrap support. Approaches are also introduced for detecting tree-like and net-like evolutionary trends in the phylogenetic Forest of Life (FOL), i.e., the entirety of the phylogenetic trees for conserved genes of prokaryotes. The principal method employed for this purpose includes mapping quartets of species onto trees to calculate the support of each quartet topology and so to quantify the tree and net contributions to the distances between species. We describe the applications methods used to analyze the FOL and the results obtained with these methods. These results support the concept of the Tree of Life (TOL) as a central evolutionary trend in the FOL as opposed to the traditional view of the TOL as a ‘species tree’. PMID:22399455

Genome-wide comparative analysis of phylogenetic trees: the prokaryotic forest of life.

PubMed

Puigbò, Pere; Wolf, Yuri I; Koonin, Eugene V

2012-01-01

Genome-wide comparison of phylogenetic trees is becoming an increasingly common approach in evolutionary genomics, and a variety of approaches for such comparison have been developed. In this article, we present several methods for comparative analysis of large numbers of phylogenetic trees. To compare phylogenetic trees taking into account the bootstrap support for each internal branch, the Boot-Split Distance (BSD) method is introduced as an extension of the previously developed Split Distance method for tree comparison. The BSD method implements the straightforward idea that comparison of phylogenetic trees can be made more robust by treating tree splits differentially depending on the bootstrap support. Approaches are also introduced for detecting tree-like and net-like evolutionary trends in the phylogenetic Forest of Life (FOL), i.e., the entirety of the phylogenetic trees for conserved genes of prokaryotes. The principal method employed for this purpose includes mapping quartets of species onto trees to calculate the support of each quartet topology and so to quantify the tree and net contributions to the distances between species. We describe the application of these methods to analyze the FOL and the results obtained with these methods. These results support the concept of the Tree of Life (TOL) as a central evolutionary trend in the FOL as opposed to the traditional view of the TOL as a "species tree."

Estimating phylogenetic relationships despite discordant gene trees across loci: the species tree of a diverse species group of feather mites (Acari: Proctophyllodidae).

PubMed

Knowles, Lacey L; Klimov, Pavel B

2011-11-01

With the increased availability of multilocus sequence data, the lack of concordance of gene trees estimated for independent loci has focused attention on both the biological processes producing the discord and the methodologies used to estimate phylogenetic relationships. What has emerged is a suite of new analytical tools for phylogenetic inference--species tree approaches. In contrast to traditional phylogenetic methods that are stymied by the idiosyncrasies of gene trees, approaches for estimating species trees explicitly take into account the cause of discord among loci and, in the process, provides a direct estimate of phylogenetic history (i.e. the history of species divergence, not divergence of specific loci). We illustrate the utility of species tree estimates with an analysis of a diverse group of feather mites, the pinnatus species group (genus Proctophyllodes). Discord among four sequenced nuclear loci is consistent with theoretical expectations, given the short time separating speciation events (as evident by short internodes relative to terminal branch lengths in the trees). Nevertheless, many of the relationships are well resolved in a Bayesian estimate of the species tree; the analysis also highlights ambiguous aspects of the phylogeny that require additional loci. The broad utility of species tree approaches is discussed, and specifically, their application to groups with high speciation rates--a history of diversification with particular prevalence in host/parasite systems where species interactions can drive rapid diversification.

Evolutionary lineages of marine snails identified using molecular phylogenetics and geometric morphometric analysis of shells.

PubMed

Vaux, Felix; Trewick, Steven A; Crampton, James S; Marshall, Bruce A; Beu, Alan G; Hills, Simon F K; Morgan-Richards, Mary

2018-06-15

The relationship between morphology and inheritance is of perennial interest in evolutionary biology and palaeontology. Using three marine snail genera Penion, Antarctoneptunea and Kelletia, we investigate whether systematics based on shell morphology accurately reflect evolutionary lineages indicated by molecular phylogenetics. Members of these gastropod genera have been a taxonomic challenge due to substantial variation in shell morphology, conservative radular and soft tissue morphology, few known ecological differences, and geographical overlap between numerous species. Sampling all sixteen putative taxa identified across the three genera, we infer mitochondrial and nuclear ribosomal DNA phylogenetic relationships within the group, and compare this to variation in adult shell shape and size. Results of phylogenetic analysis indicate that each genus is monophyletic, although the status of some phylogenetically derived and likely more recently evolved taxa within Penion is uncertain. The recently described species P. lineatus is supported by genetic evidence. Morphology, captured using geometric morphometric analysis, distinguishes the genera and matches the molecular phylogeny, although using the same dataset, species and phylogenetic subclades are not identified with high accuracy. Overall, despite abundant variation, we find that shell morphology accurately reflects genus-level classification and the corresponding deep phylogenetic splits identified in this group of marine snails. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Characterization of phylogenetically diverse astroviruses of marine mammals.

PubMed

Rivera, Rebecca; Nollens, Hendrik H; Venn-Watson, Stephanie; Gulland, Frances M D; Wellehan, James F X

2010-01-01

Astroviruses are small, non-enveloped, positive-stranded RNA viruses. Previously studied mammalian astroviruses have been associated with diarrhoeal disease. Knowledge of astrovirus diversity is very limited, with only six officially recognized astrovirus species from mammalian hosts and, in addition, one human and some bat astroviruses were recently described. We used consensus PCR techniques for initial identification of five astroviruses of marine mammals: three from California sea lions (Zalophus californianus), one from a Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) and one from a bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus). Bayesian and maximum-likelihood phylogenetic analysis found that these viruses showed significant diversity at a level consistent with novel species. Astroviruses that we identified from marine mammals were found across the mamastrovirus tree and did not form a monophyletic group. Recombination analysis found that a recombination event may have occurred between a human and a California sea lion astrovirus, suggesting that both lineages may have been capable of infecting the same host at one point. The diversity found amongst marine mammal astroviruses and their similarity to terrestrial astroviruses suggests that the marine environment plays an important role in astrovirus ecology.

Diversity dynamics in Nymphalidae butterflies: effect of phylogenetic uncertainty on diversification rate shift estimates.

PubMed

Peña, Carlos; Espeland, Marianne

2015-01-01

The species rich butterfly family Nymphalidae has been used to study evolutionary interactions between plants and insects. Theories of insect-hostplant dynamics predict accelerated diversification due to key innovations. In evolutionary biology, analysis of maximum credibility trees in the software MEDUSA (modelling evolutionary diversity using stepwise AIC) is a popular method for estimation of shifts in diversification rates. We investigated whether phylogenetic uncertainty can produce different results by extending the method across a random sample of trees from the posterior distribution of a Bayesian run. Using the MultiMEDUSA approach, we found that phylogenetic uncertainty greatly affects diversification rate estimates. Different trees produced diversification rates ranging from high values to almost zero for the same clade, and both significant rate increase and decrease in some clades. Only four out of 18 significant shifts found on the maximum clade credibility tree were consistent across most of the sampled trees. Among these, we found accelerated diversification for Ithomiini butterflies. We used the binary speciation and extinction model (BiSSE) and found that a hostplant shift to Solanaceae is correlated with increased net diversification rates in Ithomiini, congruent with the diffuse cospeciation hypothesis. Our results show that taking phylogenetic uncertainty into account when estimating net diversification rate shifts is of great importance, as very different results can be obtained when using the maximum clade credibility tree and other trees from the posterior distribution.

A Gateway for Phylogenetic Analysis Powered by Grid Computing Featuring GARLI 2.0

PubMed Central

Bazinet, Adam L.; Zwickl, Derrick J.; Cummings, Michael P.

2014-01-01

We introduce molecularevolution.org, a publicly available gateway for high-throughput, maximum-likelihood phylogenetic analysis powered by grid computing. The gateway features a garli 2.0 web service that enables a user to quickly and easily submit thousands of maximum likelihood tree searches or bootstrap searches that are executed in parallel on distributed computing resources. The garli web service allows one to easily specify partitioned substitution models using a graphical interface, and it performs sophisticated post-processing of phylogenetic results. Although the garli web service has been used by the research community for over three years, here we formally announce the availability of the service, describe its capabilities, highlight new features and recent improvements, and provide details about how the grid system efficiently delivers high-quality phylogenetic results. [garli, gateway, grid computing, maximum likelihood, molecular evolution portal, phylogenetics, web service.] PMID:24789072

Conditional adaptive Bayesian spectral analysis of nonstationary biomedical time series.

PubMed

Bruce, Scott A; Hall, Martica H; Buysse, Daniel J; Krafty, Robert T

2018-03-01

Many studies of biomedical time series signals aim to measure the association between frequency-domain properties of time series and clinical and behavioral covariates. However, the time-varying dynamics of these associations are largely ignored due to a lack of methods that can assess the changing nature of the relationship through time. This article introduces a method for the simultaneous and automatic analysis of the association between the time-varying power spectrum and covariates, which we refer to as conditional adaptive Bayesian spectrum analysis (CABS). The procedure adaptively partitions the grid of time and covariate values into an unknown number of approximately stationary blocks and nonparametrically estimates local spectra within blocks through penalized splines. CABS is formulated in a fully Bayesian framework, in which the number and locations of partition points are random, and fit using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Estimation and inference averaged over the distribution of partitions allows for the accurate analysis of spectra with both smooth and abrupt changes. The proposed methodology is used to analyze the association between the time-varying spectrum of heart rate variability and self-reported sleep quality in a study of older adults serving as the primary caregiver for their ill spouse. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Cronbach's Coefficient Alpha to Evaluate Informative Hypotheses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Okada, Kensuke

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a new method to evaluate informative hypotheses for meta-analysis of Cronbach's coefficient alpha using a Bayesian approach. The coefficient alpha is one of the most widely used reliability indices. In meta-analyses of reliability, researchers typically form specific informative hypotheses beforehand, such as "alpha of…

Fully Bayesian inference for structural MRI: application to segmentation and statistical analysis of T2-hypointensities.

PubMed

Schmidt, Paul; Schmid, Volker J; Gaser, Christian; Buck, Dorothea; Bührlen, Susanne; Förschler, Annette; Mühlau, Mark

2013-01-01

Aiming at iron-related T2-hypointensity, which is related to normal aging and neurodegenerative processes, we here present two practicable approaches, based on Bayesian inference, for preprocessing and statistical analysis of a complex set of structural MRI data. In particular, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods were used to simulate posterior distributions. First, we rendered a segmentation algorithm that uses outlier detection based on model checking techniques within a Bayesian mixture model. Second, we rendered an analytical tool comprising a Bayesian regression model with smoothness priors (in the form of Gaussian Markov random fields) mitigating the necessity to smooth data prior to statistical analysis. For validation, we used simulated data and MRI data of 27 healthy controls (age: [Formula: see text]; range, [Formula: see text]). We first observed robust segmentation of both simulated T2-hypointensities and gray-matter regions known to be T2-hypointense. Second, simulated data and images of segmented T2-hypointensity were analyzed. We found not only robust identification of simulated effects but also a biologically plausible age-related increase of T2-hypointensity primarily within the dentate nucleus but also within the globus pallidus, substantia nigra, and red nucleus. Our results indicate that fully Bayesian inference can successfully be applied for preprocessing and statistical analysis of structural MRI data.

Efficient Bayesian hierarchical functional data analysis with basis function approximations using Gaussian-Wishart processes.

PubMed

Yang, Jingjing; Cox, Dennis D; Lee, Jong Soo; Ren, Peng; Choi, Taeryon

2017-12-01

Functional data are defined as realizations of random functions (mostly smooth functions) varying over a continuum, which are usually collected on discretized grids with measurement errors. In order to accurately smooth noisy functional observations and deal with the issue of high-dimensional observation grids, we propose a novel Bayesian method based on the Bayesian hierarchical model with a Gaussian-Wishart process prior and basis function representations. We first derive an induced model for the basis-function coefficients of the functional data, and then use this model to conduct posterior inference through Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Compared to the standard Bayesian inference that suffers serious computational burden and instability in analyzing high-dimensional functional data, our method greatly improves the computational scalability and stability, while inheriting the advantage of simultaneously smoothing raw observations and estimating the mean-covariance functions in a nonparametric way. In addition, our method can naturally handle functional data observed on random or uncommon grids. Simulation and real studies demonstrate that our method produces similar results to those obtainable by the standard Bayesian inference with low-dimensional common grids, while efficiently smoothing and estimating functional data with random and high-dimensional observation grids when the standard Bayesian inference fails. In conclusion, our method can efficiently smooth and estimate high-dimensional functional data, providing one way to resolve the curse of dimensionality for Bayesian functional data analysis with Gaussian-Wishart processes. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Supermatrix and species tree methods resolve phylogenetic relationships within the big cats, Panthera (Carnivora: Felidae).

PubMed

Davis, Brian W; Li, Gang; Murphy, William J

2010-07-01

The pantherine lineage of cats diverged from the remainder of modern Felidae less than 11 million years ago and consists of the five big cats of the genus Panthera, the lion, tiger, jaguar, leopard, and snow leopard, as well as the closely related clouded leopard. A significant problem exists with respect to the precise phylogeny of these highly threatened great cats. Despite multiple publications on the subject, no two molecular studies have reconstructed Panthera with the same topology. These evolutionary relationships remain unresolved partially due to the recent and rapid radiation of pantherines in the Pliocene, individual speciation events occurring within less than 1 million years, and probable introgression between lineages following their divergence. We provide an alternative, highly supported interpretation of the evolutionary history of the pantherine lineage using novel and published DNA sequence data from the autosomes, both sex chromosomes and the mitochondrial genome. New sequences were generated for 39 single-copy regions of the felid Y chromosome, as well as four mitochondrial and four autosomal gene segments, totaling 28.7 kb. Phylogenetic analysis of these new data, combined with all published data in GenBank, highlighted the prevalence of phylogenetic disparities stemming either from the amplification of a mitochondrial to nuclear translocation event (numt), or errors in species identification. Our 47.6 kb combined dataset was analyzed as a supermatrix and with respect to individual partitions using maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic inference, in conjunction with Bayesian Estimation of Species Trees (BEST) which accounts for heterogeneous gene histories. Our results yield a robust consensus topology supporting the monophyly of lion and leopard, with jaguar sister to these species, as well as a sister species relationship of tiger and snow leopard. These results highlight new avenues for the study of speciation genomics and

BaTMAn: Bayesian Technique for Multi-image Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casado, J.; Ascasibar, Y.; García-Benito, R.; Guidi, G.; Choudhury, O. S.; Bellocchi, E.; Sánchez, S. F.; Díaz, A. I.

2016-12-01

Bayesian Technique for Multi-image Analysis (BaTMAn) characterizes any astronomical dataset containing spatial information and performs a tessellation based on the measurements and errors provided as input. The algorithm iteratively merges spatial elements as long as they are statistically consistent with carrying the same information (i.e. identical signal within the errors). The output segmentations successfully adapt to the underlying spatial structure, regardless of its morphology and/or the statistical properties of the noise. BaTMAn identifies (and keeps) all the statistically-significant information contained in the input multi-image (e.g. an IFS datacube). The main aim of the algorithm is to characterize spatially-resolved data prior to their analysis.

Propagation of population pharmacokinetic information using a Bayesian approach: comparison with meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dokoumetzidis, Aristides; Aarons, Leon

2005-08-01

We investigated the propagation of population pharmacokinetic information across clinical studies by applying Bayesian techniques. The aim was to summarize the population pharmacokinetic estimates of a study in appropriate statistical distributions in order to use them as Bayesian priors in consequent population pharmacokinetic analyses. Various data sets of simulated and real clinical data were fitted with WinBUGS, with and without informative priors. The posterior estimates of fittings with non-informative priors were used to build parametric informative priors and the whole procedure was carried on in a consecutive manner. The posterior distributions of the fittings with informative priors where compared to those of the meta-analysis fittings of the respective combinations of data sets. Good agreement was found, for the simulated and experimental datasets when the populations were exchangeable, with the posterior distribution from the fittings with the prior to be nearly identical to the ones estimated with meta-analysis. However, when populations were not exchangeble an alternative parametric form for the prior, the natural conjugate prior, had to be used in order to have consistent results. In conclusion, the results of a population pharmacokinetic analysis may be summarized in Bayesian prior distributions that can be used consecutively with other analyses. The procedure is an alternative to meta-analysis and gives comparable results. It has the advantage that it is faster than the meta-analysis, due to the large datasets used with the latter and can be performed when the data included in the prior are not actually available.

Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis for Unordered Categorical Outcomes with Incomplete Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmid, Christopher H.; Trikalinos, Thomas A.; Olkin, Ingram

2014-01-01

We develop a Bayesian multinomial network meta-analysis model for unordered (nominal) categorical outcomes that allows for partially observed data in which exact event counts may not be known for each category. This model properly accounts for correlations of counts in mutually exclusive categories and enables proper comparison and ranking of…

Construction of phylogenetic trees by kernel-based comparative analysis of metabolic networks.

PubMed

Oh, S June; Joung, Je-Gun; Chang, Jeong-Ho; Zhang, Byoung-Tak

2006-06-06

To infer the tree of life requires knowledge of the common characteristics of each species descended from a common ancestor as the measuring criteria and a method to calculate the distance between the resulting values of each measure. Conventional phylogenetic analysis based on genomic sequences provides information about the genetic relationships between different organisms. In contrast, comparative analysis of metabolic pathways in different organisms can yield insights into their functional relationships under different physiological conditions. However, evaluating the similarities or differences between metabolic networks is a computationally challenging problem, and systematic methods of doing this are desirable. Here we introduce a graph-kernel method for computing the similarity between metabolic networks in polynomial time, and use it to profile metabolic pathways and to construct phylogenetic trees. To compare the structures of metabolic networks in organisms, we adopted the exponential graph kernel, which is a kernel-based approach with a labeled graph that includes a label matrix and an adjacency matrix. To construct the phylogenetic trees, we used an unweighted pair-group method with arithmetic mean, i.e., a hierarchical clustering algorithm. We applied the kernel-based network profiling method in a comparative analysis of nine carbohydrate metabolic networks from 81 biological species encompassing Archaea, Eukaryota, and Eubacteria. The resulting phylogenetic hierarchies generally support the tripartite scheme of three domains rather than the two domains of prokaryotes and eukaryotes. By combining the kernel machines with metabolic information, the method infers the context of biosphere development that covers physiological events required for adaptation by genetic reconstruction. The results show that one may obtain a global view of the tree of life by comparing the metabolic pathway structures using meta-level information rather than sequence

Phylogenetic comparative methods on phylogenetic networks with reticulations.

PubMed

Bastide, Paul; Solís-Lemus, Claudia; Kriebel, Ricardo; Sparks, K William; Ané, Cécile

2018-04-25

The goal of Phylogenetic Comparative Methods (PCMs) is to study the distribution of quantitative traits among related species. The observed traits are often seen as the result of a Brownian Motion (BM) along the branches of a phylogenetic tree. Reticulation events such as hybridization, gene flow or horizontal gene transfer, can substantially affect a species' traits, but are not modeled by a tree. Phylogenetic networks have been designed to represent reticulate evolution. As they become available for downstream analyses, new models of trait evolution are needed, applicable to networks. One natural extension of the BM is to use a weighted average model for the trait of a hybrid, at a reticulation point. We develop here an efficient recursive algorithm to compute the phylogenetic variance matrix of a trait on a network, in only one preorder traversal of the network. We then extend the standard PCM tools to this new framework, including phylogenetic regression with covariates (or phylogenetic ANOVA), ancestral trait reconstruction, and Pagel's λ test of phylogenetic signal. The trait of a hybrid is sometimes outside of the range of its two parents, for instance because of hybrid vigor or hybrid depression. These two phenomena are rather commonly observed in present-day hybrids. Transgressive evolution can be modeled as a shift in the trait value following a reticulation point. We develop a general framework to handle such shifts, and take advantage of the phylogenetic regression view of the problem to design statistical tests for ancestral transgressive evolution in the evolutionary history of a group of species. We study the power of these tests in several scenarios, and show that recent events have indeed the strongest impact on the trait distribution of present-day taxa. We apply those methods to a dataset of Xiphophorus fishes, to confirm and complete previous analysis in this group. All the methods developed here are available in the Julia package PhyloNetworks.

Recursive algorithms for phylogenetic tree counting.

PubMed

Gavryushkina, Alexandra; Welch, David; Drummond, Alexei J

2013-10-28

In Bayesian phylogenetic inference we are interested in distributions over a space of trees. The number of trees in a tree space is an important characteristic of the space and is useful for specifying prior distributions. When all samples come from the same time point and no prior information available on divergence times, the tree counting problem is easy. However, when fossil evidence is used in the inference to constrain the tree or data are sampled serially, new tree spaces arise and counting the number of trees is more difficult. We describe an algorithm that is polynomial in the number of sampled individuals for counting of resolutions of a constraint tree assuming that the number of constraints is fixed. We generalise this algorithm to counting resolutions of a fully ranked constraint tree. We describe a quadratic algorithm for counting the number of possible fully ranked trees on n sampled individuals. We introduce a new type of tree, called a fully ranked tree with sampled ancestors, and describe a cubic time algorithm for counting the number of such trees on n sampled individuals. These algorithms should be employed for Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo inference when fossil data are included or data are serially sampled.

An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology.

PubMed

Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly M; Clifton, James P; van de Schoot, Rens; Tiemensma, Jitske

2017-09-01

The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of health psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation models, latent growth curve (and mixture) models, and hierarchical linear models. Likewise, Bayesian methods can be used with small sample sizes since they do not rely on large sample theory. In this article, we discuss several important components of Bayesian statistics as they relate to health-based inquiries. We discuss the incorporation and impact of prior knowledge into the estimation process and the different components of the analysis that should be reported in an article. We present an example implementing Bayesian estimation in the context of blood pressure changes after participants experienced an acute stressor. We conclude with final thoughts on the implementation of Bayesian statistics in health psychology, including suggestions for reviewing Bayesian manuscripts and grant proposals. We have also included an extensive amount of online supplementary material to complement the content presented here, including Bayesian examples using many different software programmes and an extensive sensitivity analysis examining the impact of priors.

Bayesian analysis of caustic-crossing microlensing events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassan, A.; Horne, K.; Kains, N.; Tsapras, Y.; Browne, P.

2010-06-01

Aims: Caustic-crossing binary-lens microlensing events are important anomalous events because they are capable of detecting an extrasolar planet companion orbiting the lens star. Fast and robust modelling methods are thus of prime interest in helping to decide whether a planet is detected by an event. Cassan introduced a new set of parameters to model binary-lens events, which are closely related to properties of the light curve. In this work, we explain how Bayesian priors can be added to this framework, and investigate on interesting options. Methods: We develop a mathematical formulation that allows us to compute analytically the priors on the new parameters, given some previous knowledge about other physical quantities. We explicitly compute the priors for a number of interesting cases, and show how this can be implemented in a fully Bayesian, Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Results: Using Bayesian priors can accelerate microlens fitting codes by reducing the time spent considering physically implausible models, and helps us to discriminate between alternative models based on the physical plausibility of their parameters.

Aphis (Hemiptera: Aphididae) species groups found in the Midwestern United States and their contribution to the phylogenetic knowledge of the genus.

PubMed

Lagos, Doris M; Voegtlin, David J; Coeur d'acier, Armelle; Giordano, Rosanna

2014-06-01

A phylogeny of the genus Aphis Linnaeus, 1 758 was built primarily from specimens collected in the Midwest of the United States. A data matrix was constructed with 68 species and 41 morphological characters with respective character states of alate and apterous viviparous females. Dendrogram topologies of analyses performed using UPGMA (Unweighted Pair Group Method with Arithmetic Mean), Maximum Parsimony and Bayesian analysis of Cytochrome Oxidase I, Elongation Factor 1-α and primary endosymbiont Buchnera aphidicola 16S sequences were not congruent. Bayesian analysis strongly supported most terminal nodes of the phylogenetic trees. The phylogeny was strongly supported by EF1-α, and analysis of COI and EF1-α molecular data combined with morphological characters. It was not supported by single analysis of COI or Buchnera aphidicola 16S. Results from the Bayesian phylogeny show 4 main species groups: asclepiadis, fabae, gossypii, and middletonii. Results place Aphis and species of the genera Protaphis Börner, 1952, Toxoptera Koch, and Xerobion Nevsky, 1928 in a monophyletic clade. Morphological characters support this monophyly as well. The phylogeny shows that the monophyletic clade of the North American middletonii species group belong to the genus Protaphis: P. debilicornis (Gillette & Palmer, 1929), comb. nov., P. echinaceae (Lagos and Voegtlin, 2009), comb. nov., and P. middletonii (Thomas, 1879). The genus Toxoptera should be considered a subgenus of Aphis (stat. nov.). The analysis also indicates that the current genus Iowana Frison, 1954 should be considered a subgenus of Aphis (stat. nov.). © 2013 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

An Efficient Independence Sampler for Updating Branches in Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo Sampling of Phylogenetic Trees.

PubMed

Aberer, Andre J; Stamatakis, Alexandros; Ronquist, Fredrik

2016-01-01

Sampling tree space is the most challenging aspect of Bayesian phylogenetic inference. The sheer number of alternative topologies is problematic by itself. In addition, the complex dependency between branch lengths and topology increases the difficulty of moving efficiently among topologies. Current tree proposals are fast but sample new trees using primitive transformations or re-mappings of old branch lengths. This reduces acceptance rates and presumably slows down convergence and mixing. Here, we explore branch proposals that do not rely on old branch lengths but instead are based on approximations of the conditional posterior. Using a diverse set of empirical data sets, we show that most conditional branch posteriors can be accurately approximated via a [Formula: see text] distribution. We empirically determine the relationship between the logarithmic conditional posterior density, its derivatives, and the characteristics of the branch posterior. We use these relationships to derive an independence sampler for proposing branches with an acceptance ratio of ~90% on most data sets. This proposal samples branches between 2× and 3× more efficiently than traditional proposals with respect to the effective sample size per unit of runtime. We also compare the performance of standard topology proposals with hybrid proposals that use the new independence sampler to update those branches that are most affected by the topological change. Our results show that hybrid proposals can sometimes noticeably decrease the number of generations necessary for topological convergence. Inconsistent performance gains indicate that branch updates are not the limiting factor in improving topological convergence for the currently employed set of proposals. However, our independence sampler might be essential for the construction of novel tree proposals that apply more radical topology changes. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of

Phylogenetic analysis of the “ECE” (CYC/TB1) clade reveals duplications predating the core eudicots

PubMed Central

Howarth, Dianella G.; Donoghue, Michael J.

2006-01-01

Flower symmetry is of special interest in understanding angiosperm evolution and ecology. Evidence from the Antirrhineae (snapdragon and relatives) indicates that several TCP gene-family transcription factors, especially CYCLOIDEA (CYC) and DICHOTOMA (DICH), play a role in specifying dorsal identity in the corolla and androecium of monosymmetric (bilateral) flowers. Studies of rosid and asterid angiosperms suggest that orthologous TCP genes may be important in dorsal identity, but there has been no broad phylogenetic context to determine copy number or orthology. Here, we compare published data from rosids and asterids with newly collected data from ranunculids, caryophyllids, Saxifragales, and Asterales to ascertain the phylogenetic placement of major duplications in the “ECE” (CYC/TB1) clade of TCP transcription factors. Bayesian analyses indicate that there are three major copies of “CYC” in the ECE clade, and that duplications leading to these copies predate the core eudicots. CYC1 contains no subsequent duplications and may not be expressed in floral tissue. CYC3 exhibits similar patterns of duplication to CYC2 in several groups. Using RT-PCR, we show that, in flowers of Lonicera morrowii (Caprifoliaceae), DipsCYC2B is expressed in the four dorsal petals and not in the ventral petal. DipsCYC3B is expressed in flower and petal primordia, possibly most strongly in the ventral petal. PMID:16754863

Bayesian switching factor analysis for estimating time-varying functional connectivity in fMRI.

PubMed

Taghia, Jalil; Ryali, Srikanth; Chen, Tianwen; Supekar, Kaustubh; Cai, Weidong; Menon, Vinod

2017-07-15

There is growing interest in understanding the dynamical properties of functional interactions between distributed brain regions. However, robust estimation of temporal dynamics from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data remains challenging due to limitations in extant multivariate methods for modeling time-varying functional interactions between multiple brain areas. Here, we develop a Bayesian generative model for fMRI time-series within the framework of hidden Markov models (HMMs). The model is a dynamic variant of the static factor analysis model (Ghahramani and Beal, 2000). We refer to this model as Bayesian switching factor analysis (BSFA) as it integrates factor analysis into a generative HMM in a unified Bayesian framework. In BSFA, brain dynamic functional networks are represented by latent states which are learnt from the data. Crucially, BSFA is a generative model which estimates the temporal evolution of brain states and transition probabilities between states as a function of time. An attractive feature of BSFA is the automatic determination of the number of latent states via Bayesian model selection arising from penalization of excessively complex models. Key features of BSFA are validated using extensive simulations on carefully designed synthetic data. We further validate BSFA using fingerprint analysis of multisession resting-state fMRI data from the Human Connectome Project (HCP). Our results show that modeling temporal dependencies in the generative model of BSFA results in improved fingerprinting of individual participants. Finally, we apply BSFA to elucidate the dynamic functional organization of the salience, central-executive, and default mode networks-three core neurocognitive systems with central role in cognitive and affective information processing (Menon, 2011). Across two HCP sessions, we demonstrate a high level of dynamic interactions between these networks and determine that the salience network has the highest temporal

Phylogenetic Analysis of Ruminant Theileria spp. from China Based on 28S Ribosomal RNA Gene

PubMed Central

Gou, Huitian; Guan, Guiquan; Ma, Miling; Liu, Aihong; Liu, Zhijie; Xu, Zongke; Ren, Qiaoyun; Li, Youquan; Yang, Jifei; Chen, Ze

2013-01-01

Species identification using DNA sequences is the basis for DNA taxonomy. In this study, we sequenced the ribosomal large-subunit RNA gene sequences (3,037-3,061 bp) in length of 13 Chinese Theileria stocks that were infective to cattle and sheep. The complete 28S rRNA gene is relatively difficult to amplify and its conserved region is not important for phylogenetic study. Therefore, we selected the D2-D3 region from the complete 28S rRNA sequences for phylogenetic analysis. Our analyses of 28S rRNA gene sequences showed that the 28S rRNA was useful as a phylogenetic marker for analyzing the relationships among Theileria spp. in ruminants. In addition, the D2-D3 region was a short segment that could be used instead of the whole 28S rRNA sequence during the phylogenetic analysis of Theileria, and it may be an ideal DNA barcode. PMID:24327775

Phylogenetic analysis of ruminant Theileria spp. from China based on 28S ribosomal RNA gene.

PubMed

Gou, Huitian; Guan, Guiquan; Ma, Miling; Liu, Aihong; Liu, Zhijie; Xu, Zongke; Ren, Qiaoyun; Li, Youquan; Yang, Jifei; Chen, Ze; Yin, Hong; Luo, Jianxun

2013-10-01

Species identification using DNA sequences is the basis for DNA taxonomy. In this study, we sequenced the ribosomal large-subunit RNA gene sequences (3,037-3,061 bp) in length of 13 Chinese Theileria stocks that were infective to cattle and sheep. The complete 28S rRNA gene is relatively difficult to amplify and its conserved region is not important for phylogenetic study. Therefore, we selected the D2-D3 region from the complete 28S rRNA sequences for phylogenetic analysis. Our analyses of 28S rRNA gene sequences showed that the 28S rRNA was useful as a phylogenetic marker for analyzing the relationships among Theileria spp. in ruminants. In addition, the D2-D3 region was a short segment that could be used instead of the whole 28S rRNA sequence during the phylogenetic analysis of Theileria, and it may be an ideal DNA barcode.

Molecular phylogenetic reconstruction of the endemic Asian salamander family Hynobiidae (Amphibia, Caudata).

PubMed

Weisrock, David W; Macey, J Robert; Matsui, Masafumi; Mulcahy, Daniel G; Papenfuss, Theodore J

2013-01-01

The salamander family Hynobiidae contains over 50 species and has been the subject of a number of molecular phylogenetic investigations aimed at reconstructing branches across the entire family. In general, studies using the greatest amount of sequence data have used reduced taxon sampling, while the study with the greatest taxon sampling has used a limited sequence data set. Here, we provide insights into the phylogenetic history of the Hynobiidae using both dense taxon sampling and a large mitochondrial DNA sequence data set. We report exclusive new mitochondrial DNA data of 2566 aligned bases (with 151 excluded sites, of included sites 1157 are variable with 957 parsimony informative). This is sampled from two genic regions encoding a 12S-16S region (the 3' end of 12S rRNA, tRNA(VAI), and the 5' end of 16S rRNA), and a ND2-COI region (ND2, tRNA(Trp), tRNA(Ala), tRNA(Asn), the origin for light strand replication--O(L), tRNA(Cys), tRNAT(Tyr), and the 5' end of COI). Analyses using parsimony, Bayesian, and maximum likelihood optimality criteria produce similar phylogenetic trees, with discordant branches generally receiving low levels of branch support. Monophyly of the Hynobiidae is strongly supported across all analyses, as is the sister relationship and deep divergence between the genus Onychodactylus with all remaining hynobiids. Within this latter grouping our phylogenetic results identify six clades that are relatively divergent from one another, but for which there is minimal support for their phylogenetic placement. This includes the genus Batrachuperus, the genus Hynobius, the genus Pachyhynobius, the genus Salamandrella, a clade containing the genera Ranodon and Paradactylodon, and a clade containing the genera Liua and Pseudohynobius. This latter clade receives low bootstrap support in the parsimony analysis, but is consistent across all three analytical methods. Our results also clarify a number of well-supported relationships within the larger

Taking the First Steps towards a Standard for Reporting on Phylogenies: Minimal Information about a Phylogenetic Analysis (MIAPA)

PubMed Central

LEEBENS-MACK, JIM; VISION, TODD; BRENNER, ERIC; BOWERS, JOHN E.; CANNON, STEVEN; CLEMENT, MARK J.; CUNNINGHAM, CLIFFORD W.; dePAMPHILIS, CLAUDE; deSALLE, ROB; DOYLE, JEFF J.; EISEN, JONATHAN A.; GU, XUN; HARSHMAN, JOHN; JANSEN, ROBERT K.; KELLOGG, ELIZABETH A.; KOONIN, EUGENE V.; MISHLER, BRENT D.; PHILIPPE, HERVÉ; PIRES, J. CHRIS; QIU, YIN-LONG; RHEE, SEUNG Y.; SJÖLANDER, KIMMEN; SOLTIS, DOUGLAS E.; SOLTIS, PAMELA S.; STEVENSON, DENNIS W.; WALL, KERR; WARNOW, TANDY; ZMASEK, CHRISTIAN

2011-01-01

In the eight years since phylogenomics was introduced as the intersection of genomics and phylogenetics, the field has provided fundamental insights into gene function, genome history and organismal relationships. The utility of phylogenomics is growing with the increase in the number and diversity of taxa for which whole genome and large transcriptome sequence sets are being generated. We assert that the synergy between genomic and phylogenetic perspectives in comparative biology would be enhanced by the development and refinement of minimal reporting standards for phylogenetic analyses. Encouraged by the development of the Minimum Information About a Microarray Experiment (MIAME) standard, we propose a similar roadmap for the development of a Minimal Information About a Phylogenetic Analysis (MIAPA) standard. Key in the successful development and implementation of such a standard will be broad participation by developers of phylogenetic analysis software, phylogenetic database developers, practitioners of phylogenomics, and journal editors. PMID:16901231

Bayesian structural equation modeling in sport and exercise psychology.

PubMed

Stenling, Andreas; Ivarsson, Andreas; Johnson, Urban; Lindwall, Magnus

2015-08-01

Bayesian statistics is on the rise in mainstream psychology, but applications in sport and exercise psychology research are scarce. In this article, the foundations of Bayesian analysis are introduced, and we will illustrate how to apply Bayesian structural equation modeling in a sport and exercise psychology setting. More specifically, we contrasted a confirmatory factor analysis on the Sport Motivation Scale II estimated with the most commonly used estimator, maximum likelihood, and a Bayesian approach with weakly informative priors for cross-loadings and correlated residuals. The results indicated that the model with Bayesian estimation and weakly informative priors provided a good fit to the data, whereas the model estimated with a maximum likelihood estimator did not produce a well-fitting model. The reasons for this discrepancy between maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation are discussed as well as potential advantages and caveats with the Bayesian approach.

Molecular Phylogenetic Analysis of Archaeal Intron-Containing Genes Coding for rRNA Obtained from a Deep-Subsurface Geothermal Water Pool

PubMed Central

Takai, Ken; Horikoshi, Koki

1999-01-01

Molecular phylogenetic analysis of a naturally occurring microbial community in a deep-subsurface geothermal environment indicated that the phylogenetic diversity of the microbial population in the environment was extremely limited and that only hyperthermophilic archaeal members closely related to Pyrobaculum were present. All archaeal ribosomal DNA sequences contained intron-like sequences, some of which had open reading frames with repeated homing-endonuclease motifs. The sequence similarity analysis and the phylogenetic analysis of these homing endonucleases suggested the possible phylogenetic relationship among archaeal rRNA-encoded homing endonucleases. PMID:10584021

Molecular phylogenetics and character evolution of morphologically diverse groups, Dendrobium section Dendrobium and allies

PubMed Central

Takamiya, Tomoko; Wongsawad, Pheravut; Sathapattayanon, Apirada; Tajima, Natsuko; Suzuki, Shunichiro; Kitamura, Saki; Shioda, Nao; Handa, Takashi; Kitanaka, Susumu; Iijima, Hiroshi; Yukawa, Tomohisa

2014-01-01

It is always difficult to construct coherent classification systems for plant lineages having diverse morphological characters. The genus Dendrobium, one of the largest genera in the Orchidaceae, includes ∼1100 species, and enormous morphological diversification has hindered the establishment of consistent classification systems covering all major groups of this genus. Given the particular importance of species in Dendrobium section Dendrobium and allied groups as floriculture and crude drug genetic resources, there is an urgent need to establish a stable classification system. To clarify phylogenetic relationships in Dendrobium section Dendrobium and allied groups, we analysed the macromolecular characters of the group. Phylogenetic analyses of 210 taxa of Dendrobium were conducted on DNA sequences of internal transcribed spacer (ITS) regions of 18S–26S nuclear ribosomal DNA and the maturase-coding gene (matK) located in an intron of the plastid gene trnK using maximum parsimony and Bayesian methods. The parsimony and Bayesian analyses revealed 13 distinct clades in the group comprising section Dendrobium and its allied groups. Results also showed paraphyly or polyphyly of sections Amblyanthus, Aporum, Breviflores, Calcarifera, Crumenata, Dendrobium, Densiflora, Distichophyllae, Dolichocentrum, Holochrysa, Oxyglossum and Pedilonum. On the other hand, the monophyly of section Stachyobium was well supported. It was found that many of the morphological characters that have been believed to reflect phylogenetic relationships are, in fact, the result of convergence. As such, many of the sections that have been recognized up to this point were found to not be monophyletic, so recircumscription of sections is required. PMID:25107672

Bayesian analyses of time-interval data for environmental radiation monitoring.

PubMed

Luo, Peng; Sharp, Julia L; DeVol, Timothy A

2013-01-01

Time-interval (time difference between two consecutive pulses) analysis based on the principles of Bayesian inference was investigated for online radiation monitoring. Using experimental and simulated data, Bayesian analysis of time-interval data [Bayesian (ti)] was compared with Bayesian and a conventional frequentist analysis of counts in a fixed count time [Bayesian (cnt) and single interval test (SIT), respectively]. The performances of the three methods were compared in terms of average run length (ARL) and detection probability for several simulated detection scenarios. Experimental data were acquired with a DGF-4C system in list mode. Simulated data were obtained using Monte Carlo techniques to obtain a random sampling of the Poisson distribution. All statistical algorithms were developed using the R Project for statistical computing. Bayesian analysis of time-interval information provided a similar detection probability as Bayesian analysis of count information, but the authors were able to make a decision with fewer pulses at relatively higher radiation levels. In addition, for the cases with very short presence of the source (< count time), time-interval information is more sensitive to detect a change than count information since the source data is averaged by the background data over the entire count time. The relationships of the source time, change points, and modifications to the Bayesian approach for increasing detection probability are presented.

Phylogenetic analysis of the light-harvesting system in Chromera velia.

PubMed

Pan, Hao; Slapeta, Jan; Carter, Dee; Chen, Min

2012-03-01

Chromera velia is a newly discovered photosynthetic eukaryotic alga that has functional chloroplasts closely related to the apicoplast of apicomplexan parasites. Recently, the chloroplast in C. velia was shown to be derived from the red algal lineage. Light-harvesting protein complexes (LHC), which are a group of proteins involved in photon capture and energy transfer in photosynthesis, are important for photosynthesis efficiency, photo-adaptation/accumulation and photo-protection. Although these proteins are encoded by genes located in the nucleus, LHC peptides migrate and function in the chloroplast, hence the LHC may have a different evolutionary history compared to chloroplast evolution. Here, we compare the phylogenetic relationship of the C. velia LHCs to LHCs from other photosynthetic organisms. Twenty-three LHC homologues retrieved from C. velia EST sequences were aligned according to their conserved regions. The C. velia LHCs are positioned in four separate groups on trees constructed by neighbour-joining, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. A major group of seventeen LHCs from C. velia formed a separate cluster that was closest to dinoflagellate LHC, and to LHC and fucoxanthin chlorophyll-binding proteins from diatoms. One C. velia LHC sequence grouped with LI1818/LI818-like proteins, which were recently identified as environmental stress-induced protein complexes. Only three LHC homologues from C. velia grouped with the LHCs from red algae.

A menu-driven software package of Bayesian nonparametric (and parametric) mixed models for regression analysis and density estimation.

PubMed

Karabatsos, George

2017-02-01

Most of applied statistics involves regression analysis of data. In practice, it is important to specify a regression model that has minimal assumptions which are not violated by data, to ensure that statistical inferences from the model are informative and not misleading. This paper presents a stand-alone and menu-driven software package, Bayesian Regression: Nonparametric and Parametric Models, constructed from MATLAB Compiler. Currently, this package gives the user a choice from 83 Bayesian models for data analysis. They include 47 Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) infinite-mixture regression models; 5 BNP infinite-mixture models for density estimation; and 31 normal random effects models (HLMs), including normal linear models. Each of the 78 regression models handles either a continuous, binary, or ordinal dependent variable, and can handle multi-level (grouped) data. All 83 Bayesian models can handle the analysis of weighted observations (e.g., for meta-analysis), and the analysis of left-censored, right-censored, and/or interval-censored data. Each BNP infinite-mixture model has a mixture distribution assigned one of various BNP prior distributions, including priors defined by either the Dirichlet process, Pitman-Yor process (including the normalized stable process), beta (two-parameter) process, normalized inverse-Gaussian process, geometric weights prior, dependent Dirichlet process, or the dependent infinite-probits prior. The software user can mouse-click to select a Bayesian model and perform data analysis via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. After the sampling completes, the software automatically opens text output that reports MCMC-based estimates of the model's posterior distribution and model predictive fit to the data. Additional text and/or graphical output can be generated by mouse-clicking other menu options. This includes output of MCMC convergence analyses, and estimates of the model's posterior predictive distribution, for selected

A molecular phylogenetic appraisal of the acanthostomines Acanthostomum and Timoniella and their position within Cryptogonimidae (Trematoda: Opisthorchioidea)

PubMed Central

Vidal-Martínez, Victor M.

2017-01-01

The phylogenetic position of three taxa from two trematode genera, belonging to the subfamily Acanthostominae (Opisthorchioidea: Cryptogonimidae), were analysed using partial 28S ribosomal DNA (Domains 1–2) and internal transcribed spacers (ITS1–5.8S–ITS2). Bayesian inference and Maximum likelihood analyses of combined 28S rDNA and ITS1 + 5.8S + ITS2 sequences indicated the monophyly of the genus Acanthostomum (A. cf. americanum and A. burminis) and paraphyly of the Acanthostominae. These phylogenetic relationships were consistent in analyses of 28S alone and concatenated 28S + ITS1 + 5.8S + ITS2 sequences analyses. Based on molecular phylogenetic analyses, the subfamily Acanthostominae is therefore a paraphyletic taxon, in contrast with previous classifications based on morphological data. Phylogenetic patterns of host specificity inferred from adult stages of other cryptogonimid taxa are also well supported. However, analyses using additional genera and species are necessary to support the phylogenetic inferences from this study. Our molecular phylogenetic reconstruction linked two larval stages of A. cf. americanum cercariae and metacercariae. Here, we present the evolutionary and ecological implications of parasitic infections in freshwater and brackish environments. PMID:29250471

A molecular phylogenetic appraisal of the acanthostomines Acanthostomum and Timoniella and their position within Cryptogonimidae (Trematoda: Opisthorchioidea).

PubMed

Martínez-Aquino, Andrés; Vidal-Martínez, Victor M; Aguirre-Macedo, M Leopoldina

2017-01-01

The phylogenetic position of three taxa from two trematode genera, belonging to the subfamily Acanthostominae (Opisthorchioidea: Cryptogonimidae), were analysed using partial 28S ribosomal DNA (Domains 1-2) and internal transcribed spacers (ITS1-5.8S-ITS2). Bayesian inference and Maximum likelihood analyses of combined 28S rDNA and ITS1 + 5.8S + ITS2 sequences indicated the monophyly of the genus Acanthostomum ( A. cf. americanum and A. burminis ) and paraphyly of the Acanthostominae . These phylogenetic relationships were consistent in analyses of 28S alone and concatenated 28S + ITS1 + 5.8S + ITS2 sequences analyses. Based on molecular phylogenetic analyses, the subfamily Acanthostominae is therefore a paraphyletic taxon, in contrast with previous classifications based on morphological data. Phylogenetic patterns of host specificity inferred from adult stages of other cryptogonimid taxa are also well supported. However, analyses using additional genera and species are necessary to support the phylogenetic inferences from this study. Our molecular phylogenetic reconstruction linked two larval stages of A. cf. americanum cercariae and metacercariae. Here, we present the evolutionary and ecological implications of parasitic infections in freshwater and brackish environments.

Phylogenetic analysis of West Nile virus, Nuevo Leon State, Mexico.

PubMed

Blitvich, Bradley J; Fernández-Salas, Ildefonso; Contreras-Cordero, Juan F; Loroño-Pino, María A; Marlenee, Nicole L; Díaz, Francisco J; González-Rojas, José I; Obregón-Martínez, Nelson; Chiu-García, Jorge A; Black, William C; Beaty, Barry J

2004-07-01

West Nile virus RNA was detected in brain tissue from a horse that died in June 2003 in Nuevo Leon State, Mexico. Nucleotide sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of the premembrane and envelope genes showed that the virus was most closely related to West Nile virus isolates collected in Texas in 2002.

Applying Bayesian Modeling and Receiver Operating Characteristic Methodologies for Test Utility Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Qiu; Diemer, Matthew A.; Maier, Kimberly S.

2013-01-01

This study integrated Bayesian hierarchical modeling and receiver operating characteristic analysis (BROCA) to evaluate how interest strength (IS) and interest differentiation (ID) predicted low–socioeconomic status (SES) youth's interest-major congruence (IMC). Using large-scale Kuder Career Search online-assessment data, this study fit three…

Monte Carlo Algorithms for a Bayesian Analysis of the Cosmic Microwave Background

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jewell, Jeffrey B.; Eriksen, H. K.; ODwyer, I. J.; Wandelt, B. D.; Gorski, K.; Knox, L.; Chu, M.

2006-01-01

A viewgraph presentation on the review of Bayesian approach to Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) analysis, numerical implementation with Gibbs sampling, a summary of application to WMAP I and work in progress with generalizations to polarization, foregrounds, asymmetric beams, and 1/f noise is given.

Moving beyond qualitative evaluations of Bayesian models of cognition.

PubMed

Hemmer, Pernille; Tauber, Sean; Steyvers, Mark

2015-06-01

Bayesian models of cognition provide a powerful way to understand the behavior and goals of individuals from a computational point of view. Much of the focus in the Bayesian cognitive modeling approach has been on qualitative model evaluations, where predictions from the models are compared to data that is often averaged over individuals. In many cognitive tasks, however, there are pervasive individual differences. We introduce an approach to directly infer individual differences related to subjective mental representations within the framework of Bayesian models of cognition. In this approach, Bayesian data analysis methods are used to estimate cognitive parameters and motivate the inference process within a Bayesian cognitive model. We illustrate this integrative Bayesian approach on a model of memory. We apply the model to behavioral data from a memory experiment involving the recall of heights of people. A cross-validation analysis shows that the Bayesian memory model with inferred subjective priors predicts withheld data better than a Bayesian model where the priors are based on environmental statistics. In addition, the model with inferred priors at the individual subject level led to the best overall generalization performance, suggesting that individual differences are important to consider in Bayesian models of cognition.

Bayesian Analysis of the Association between Family-Level Factors and Siblings' Dental Caries.

PubMed

Wen, A; Weyant, R J; McNeil, D W; Crout, R J; Neiswanger, K; Marazita, M L; Foxman, B

2017-07-01

We conducted a Bayesian analysis of the association between family-level socioeconomic status and smoking and the prevalence of dental caries among siblings (children from infant to 14 y) among children living in rural and urban Northern Appalachia using data from the Center for Oral Health Research in Appalachia (COHRA). The observed proportion of siblings sharing caries was significantly different from predicted assuming siblings' caries status was independent. Using a Bayesian hierarchical model, we found the inclusion of a household factor significantly improved the goodness of fit. Other findings showed an inverse association between parental education and siblings' caries and a positive association between households with smokers and siblings' caries. Our study strengthens existing evidence suggesting that increased parental education and decreased parental cigarette smoking are associated with reduced childhood caries in the household. Our results also demonstrate the value of a Bayesian approach, which allows us to include household as a random effect, thereby providing more accurate estimates than obtained using generalized linear mixed models.

An integrated phylogenetic analysis on ascaridoid nematodes (Anisakidae, Raphidascarididae), including further description and intraspecific variations of Raphidascaris (Sprentascaris) lanfrediae in freshwater fishes from Brazil.

PubMed

Pereira, Felipe B; Luque, José L

2017-02-01

Genetic and morphological variations in two component populations of Raphidascaris (Sprentascaris) lanfrediae collected in the intestine of Geophagus argyrosticus and G. proximus (Cichlidae) from States of Pará and Amapá, Brazil, respectively, were explored for the first time. A phylogenetic study including two genes (18S and 28S of the rDNA) plus morphological and life history traits of "anisakid-related" nematodes (Anisakidae, Raphidascarididae) was also performed in order to clarify taxonomic and systematic issues related to these taxa. Gene alignments were subjected to maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian Inference (BI), and combined data of the genetic and morphological datasets was subjected to maximum parsimony (MP) analysis. Despite of the subtle differences in the morphology (mainly in male caudal papillae) and morphometry between specimens of R. (S.) lanfrediae from the two different hosts and from the type material of the species, no genetic variation was found among representatives of the newly collected material. This find may represent an example of gene-environment interactions, similar to that recently observed for Raphidascaroides brasiliensis. Phylogenetic reconstructions indicated the paraphyly of Anisakidae represented by two subfamilies, i.e., Anisakinae and Contracaecinae and the monophyly of Raphidascarididae. Analysis of the combined datasets revealed that some morphological traits may represent apomorphic characters of Raphidascarididae and Anisakidae, whereas others are highly homoplastic and some may be interpreted with careful to avoid errors. The results support the premise that taxonomists should consider Anisakidae and Raphidascarididae as separate families, and only two subfamilies of Anisakidae, i.e., Anisakinae and Contracaecinae. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian imperfect information analysis for clinical recurrent data

PubMed Central

Chang, Chih-Kuang; Chang, Chi-Chang

2015-01-01

In medical research, clinical practice must often be undertaken with imperfect information from limited resources. This study applied Bayesian imperfect information-value analysis to realistic situations to produce likelihood functions and posterior distributions, to a clinical decision-making problem for recurrent events. In this study, three kinds of failure models are considered, and our methods illustrated with an analysis of imperfect information from a trial of immunotherapy in the treatment of chronic granulomatous disease. In addition, we present evidence toward a better understanding of the differing behaviors along with concomitant variables. Based on the results of simulations, the imperfect information value of the concomitant variables was evaluated and different realistic situations were compared to see which could yield more accurate results for medical decision-making. PMID:25565853

A Bayesian Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial Comparing Antimetabolite Therapies for Non-Infectious Uveitis.

PubMed

Browne, Erica N; Rathinam, Sivakumar R; Kanakath, Anuradha; Thundikandy, Radhika; Babu, Manohar; Lietman, Thomas M; Acharya, Nisha R

2017-02-01

To conduct a Bayesian analysis of a randomized clinical trial (RCT) for non-infectious uveitis using expert opinion as a subjective prior belief. A RCT was conducted to determine which antimetabolite, methotrexate or mycophenolate mofetil, is more effective as an initial corticosteroid-sparing agent for the treatment of intermediate, posterior, and pan-uveitis. Before the release of trial results, expert opinion on the relative effectiveness of these two medications was collected via online survey. Members of the American Uveitis Society executive committee were invited to provide an estimate for the relative decrease in efficacy with a 95% credible interval (CrI). A prior probability distribution was created from experts' estimates. A Bayesian analysis was performed using the constructed expert prior probability distribution and the trial's primary outcome. A total of 11 of the 12 invited uveitis specialists provided estimates. Eight of 11 experts (73%) believed mycophenolate mofetil is more effective. The group prior belief was that the odds of treatment success for patients taking mycophenolate mofetil were 1.4-fold the odds of those taking methotrexate (95% CrI 0.03-45.0). The odds of treatment success with mycophenolate mofetil compared to methotrexate was 0.4 from the RCT (95% confidence interval 0.1-1.2) and 0.7 (95% CrI 0.2-1.7) from the Bayesian analysis. A Bayesian analysis combining expert belief with the trial's result did not indicate preference for one drug. However, the wide credible interval leaves open the possibility of a substantial treatment effect. This suggests clinical equipoise necessary to allow a larger, more definitive RCT.

A Bayesian Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial Comparing Antimetabolite Therapies for Non-Infectious Uveitis

PubMed Central

Browne, Erica N; Rathinam, Sivakumar R; Kanakath, Anuradha; Thundikandy, Radhika; Babu, Manohar; Lietman, Thomas M; Acharya, Nisha R

2017-01-01

Purpose To conduct a Bayesian analysis of a randomized clinical trial (RCT) for non-infectious uveitis using expert opinion as a subjective prior belief. Methods A RCT was conducted to determine which antimetabolite, methotrexate or mycophenolate mofetil, is more effective as an initial corticosteroid-sparing agent for the treatment of intermediate, posterior, and pan- uveitis. Before the release of trial results, expert opinion on the relative effectiveness of these two medications was collected via online survey. Members of the American Uveitis Society executive committee were invited to provide an estimate for the relative decrease in efficacy with a 95% credible interval (CrI). A prior probability distribution was created from experts’ estimates. A Bayesian analysis was performed using the constructed expert prior probability distribution and the trial’s primary outcome. Results 11 of 12 invited uveitis specialists provided estimates. Eight of 11 experts (73%) believed mycophenolate mofetil is more effective. The group prior belief was that the odds of treatment success for patients taking mycophenolate mofetil were 1.4-fold the odds of those taking methotrexate (95% CrI 0.03 – 45.0). The odds of treatment success with mycophenolate mofetil compared to methotrexate was 0.4 from the RCT (95% confidence interval 0.1–1.2) and 0.7 (95% CrI 0.2–1.7) from the Bayesian analysis. Conclusions A Bayesian analysis combining expert belief with the trial’s result did not indicate preference for one drug. However, the wide credible interval leaves open the possibility of a substantial treatment effect. This suggests clinical equipoise necessary to allow a larger, more definitive RCT. PMID:27982726

Bayesian Analysis of Longitudinal Data Using Growth Curve Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Zhiyong; Hamagami, Fumiaki; Wang, Lijuan Lijuan; Nesselroade, John R.; Grimm, Kevin J.

2007-01-01

Bayesian methods for analyzing longitudinal data in social and behavioral research are recommended for their ability to incorporate prior information in estimating simple and complex models. We first summarize the basics of Bayesian methods before presenting an empirical example in which we fit a latent basis growth curve model to achievement data…

The mitochondrial genome of the multicolored Asian lady beetle Harmonia axyridis (Pallas) and a phylogenetic analysis of the Polyphaga (Insecta: Coleoptera).

PubMed

Niu, Fang-Fang; Zhu, Liang; Wang, Su; Wei, Shu-Jun

2016-07-01

Here, we report the mitochondrial genome sequence of the multicolored Asian lady beetle Harmonia axyridis (Pallas, 1773) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) (GenBank accession No. KR108208). This is the first species with sequenced mitochondrial genome from the genus Harmonia. The current length with partitial A + T-rich region of this mitochondrial genome is 16,387 bp. All the typical genes were sequenced except the trnI and trnQ. As in most other sequenced mitochondrial genomes of Coleoptera, there is no re-arrangement in the sequenced region compared with the pupative ancestral arrangement of insects. All protein-coding genes start with ATN codons. Five, five and three protein-coding genes stop with termination codon TAA, TA and T, respectively. Phylogenetic analysis using Bayesian method based on the first and second codon positions of the protein-coding genes supported that the Scirtidae is a basal lineage of Polyphaga. The Harmonia and the Coccinella form a sister lineage. The monophyly of Staphyliniformia, Scarabaeiformia and Cucujiformia was supported. The Buprestidae was found to be a sister group to the Bostrichiformia.

Molecular phylogenetics reveals convergent evolution in lower Congo River spiny eels.

PubMed

Alter, S Elizabeth; Brown, Bianca; Stiassny, Melanie L J

2015-10-15

The lower Congo River (LCR) is a region of exceptional species diversity and endemism in the Congo basin, including numerous species of spiny eels (genus Mastacembelus). Four of these exhibit distinctive phenotypes characterized by greatly reduced optic globes deeply embedded into the head (cryptophthalmia) and reduced (or absent) melanin pigmentation, among other characteristics. A strikingly similar cryptophthalmic phenotype is also found in members of a number of unrelated fish families, strongly suggesting the possibility of convergent evolution. However, little is known about the evolutionary processes that shaped diversification in LCR Mastacembelus, their biogeographic origins, or when colonization of the LCR occurred. We sequenced mitochondrial and nuclear genes from Mastacembelus species collected in the lower Congo River, and compared them with other African species and Asian representatives as outgroups. We analyzed the sequence data using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic inference. Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic analyses, and Bayesian coalescent methods for species tree reconstruction, reveal that endemic LCR spiny eels derive from two independent origins, clearly demonstrating convergent evolution of the cryptophthalmic phenotype. Mastacembelus crassus, M. aviceps, and M. simbi form a clade, allied to species found in southern, eastern and central Africa. Unexpectedly, M. brichardi and brachyrhinus fall within a clade otherwise endemic to Lake Tanganikya (LT) ca. 1500 km east of the LCR. Divergence dating suggests the ages of these two clades of LCR endemics differ markedly. The age of the crassus group is estimated at ~4 Myr while colonization of the LCR by the brichardi-brachyrhinus progenitor was considerably more recent, dated at ~0.5 Myr. The phylogenetic framework of spiny eels presented here, the first to include LCR species, demonstrates that cryptophthalmia and associated traits evolved at least twice in Mastacembelus

A Distance Measure for Genome Phylogenetic Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Minh Duc; Allison, Lloyd; Dix, Trevor

Phylogenetic analyses of species based on single genes or parts of the genomes are often inconsistent because of factors such as variable rates of evolution and horizontal gene transfer. The availability of more and more sequenced genomes allows phylogeny construction from complete genomes that is less sensitive to such inconsistency. For such long sequences, construction methods like maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood are often not possible due to their intensive computational requirement. Another class of tree construction methods, namely distance-based methods, require a measure of distances between any two genomes. Some measures such as evolutionary edit distance of gene order and gene content are computational expensive or do not perform well when the gene content of the organisms are similar. This study presents an information theoretic measure of genetic distances between genomes based on the biological compression algorithm expert model. We demonstrate that our distance measure can be applied to reconstruct the consensus phylogenetic tree of a number of Plasmodium parasites from their genomes, the statistical bias of which would mislead conventional analysis methods. Our approach is also used to successfully construct a plausible evolutionary tree for the γ-Proteobacteria group whose genomes are known to contain many horizontally transferred genes.

Exact Bayesian Inference for Phylogenetic Birth-Death Models.

PubMed

Parag, K V; Pybus, O G

2018-04-26

Inferring the rates of change of a population from a reconstructed phylogeny of genetic sequences is a central problem in macro-evolutionary biology, epidemiology, and many other disciplines. A popular solution involves estimating the parameters of a birth-death process (BDP), which links the shape of the phylogeny to its birth and death rates. Modern BDP estimators rely on random Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to infer these rates. Such methods, while powerful and scalable, cannot be guaranteed to converge, leading to results that may be hard to replicate or difficult to validate. We present a conceptually and computationally different parametric BDP inference approach using flexible and easy to implement Snyder filter (SF) algorithms. This method is deterministic so its results are provable, guaranteed, and reproducible. We validate the SF on constant rate BDPs and find that it solves BDP likelihoods known to produce robust estimates. We then examine more complex BDPs with time-varying rates. Our estimates compare well with a recently developed parametric MCMC inference method. Lastly, we performmodel selection on an empirical Agamid species phylogeny, obtaining results consistent with the literature. The SF makes no approximations, beyond those required for parameter quantisation and numerical integration, and directly computes the posterior distribution of model parameters. It is a promising alternative inference algorithm that may serve either as a standalone Bayesian estimator or as a useful diagnostic reference for validating more involved MCMC strategies. The Snyder filter is implemented in Matlab and the time-varying BDP models are simulated in R. The source code and data are freely available at https://github.com/kpzoo/snyder-birth-death-code. kris.parag@zoo.ox.ac.uk. Supplementary material is available at Bioinformatics online.

Phylogenetic Analysis of West Nile Virus, Nuevo Leon State, Mexico

PubMed Central

Blitvich, Bradley J.; Fernández-Salas, Ildefonso; Contreras-Cordero, Juan F.; Loroño-Pino, María A.; Marlenee, Nicole L.; Díaz, Francisco J.; González-Rojas, José I.; Obregón-Martínez, Nelson; Chiu-García, Jorge A.; Black, William C.

2004-01-01

West Nile virus RNA was detected in brain tissue from a horse that died in June 2003 in Nuevo Leon State, Mexico. Nucleotide sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of the premembrane and envelope genes showed that the virus was most closely related to West Nile virus isolates collected in Texas in 2002. PMID:15324558

Deep Learning Neural Networks and Bayesian Neural Networks in Data Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chernoded, Andrey; Dudko, Lev; Myagkov, Igor; Volkov, Petr

2017-10-01

Most of the modern analyses in high energy physics use signal-versus-background classification techniques of machine learning methods and neural networks in particular. Deep learning neural network is the most promising modern technique to separate signal and background and now days can be widely and successfully implemented as a part of physical analysis. In this article we compare Deep learning and Bayesian neural networks application as a classifiers in an instance of top quark analysis.

Bayesian analysis of multiple direct detection experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arina, Chiara

2014-12-01

Bayesian methods offer a coherent and efficient framework for implementing uncertainties into induction problems. In this article, we review how this approach applies to the analysis of dark matter direct detection experiments. In particular we discuss the exclusion limit of XENON100 and the debated hints of detection under the hypothesis of a WIMP signal. Within parameter inference, marginalizing consistently over uncertainties to extract robust posterior probability distributions, we find that the claimed tension between XENON100 and the other experiments can be partially alleviated in isospin violating scenario, while elastic scattering model appears to be compatible with the frequentist statistical approach. We then move to model comparison, for which Bayesian methods are particularly well suited. Firstly, we investigate the annual modulation seen in CoGeNT data, finding that there is weak evidence for a modulation. Modulation models due to other physics compare unfavorably with the WIMP models, paying the price for their excessive complexity. Secondly, we confront several coherent scattering models to determine the current best physical scenario compatible with the experimental hints. We find that exothermic and inelastic dark matter are moderatly disfavored against the elastic scenario, while the isospin violating model has a similar evidence. Lastly the Bayes' factor gives inconclusive evidence for an incompatibility between the data sets of XENON100 and the hints of detection. The same question assessed with goodness of fit would indicate a 2 σ discrepancy. This suggests that more data are therefore needed to settle this question.

The complete mitochondrial genome of dhole Cuon alpinus: phylogenetic analysis and dating evolutionary divergence within Canidae.

PubMed

Zhang, Honghai; Chen, Lei

2011-03-01

The dhole (Cuon alpinus) is the only existent species in the genus Cuon (Carnivora: Canidae). In the present study, the complete mitochondrial genome of the dhole was sequenced. The total length is 16672 base pairs which is the shortest in Canidae. Sequence analysis revealed that most mitochondrial genomic functional regions were highly consistent among canid animals except the CSB domain of the control region. The difference in length among the Canidae mitochondrial genome sequences is mainly due to the number of short segments of tandem repeated in the CSB domain. Phylogenetic analysis was progressed based on the concatenated data set of 14 mitochondrial genes of 8 canid animals by using maximum parsimony (MP), maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian (BI) inference methods. The genera Vulpes and Nyctereutes formed a sister group and split first within Canidae, followed by that in the Cuon. The divergence in the genus Canis was the latest. The divarication of domestic dogs after that of the Canis lupus laniger is completely supported by all the three topologies. Pairwise sequence divergence data of different mitochondrial genes among canid animals were also determined. Except for the synonymous substitutions in protein-coding genes, the control region exhibits the highest sequence divergences. The synonymous rates are approximately two to six times higher than those of the non-synonymous sites except for a slightly higher rate in the non-synonymous substitution between Cuon alpinus and Vulpes vulpes. 16S rRNA genes have a slightly faster sequence divergence than 12S rRNA and tRNA genes. Based on nucleotide substitutions of tRNA genes and rRNA genes, the times since divergence between dhole and other canid animals, and between domestic dogs and three subspecies of wolves were evaluated. The result indicates that Vulpes and Nyctereutes have a close phylogenetic relationship and the divergence of Nyctereutes is a little earlier. The Tibetan wolf may be an archaic

A fully Bayesian before-after analysis of permeable friction course (PFC) pavement wet weather safety.

PubMed

Buddhavarapu, Prasad; Smit, Andre F; Prozzi, Jorge A

2015-07-01

Permeable friction course (PFC), a porous hot-mix asphalt, is typically applied to improve wet weather safety on high-speed roadways in Texas. In order to warrant expensive PFC construction, a statistical evaluation of its safety benefits is essential. Generally, the literature on the effectiveness of porous mixes in reducing wet-weather crashes is limited and often inconclusive. In this study, the safety effectiveness of PFC was evaluated using a fully Bayesian before-after safety analysis. First, two groups of road segments overlaid with PFC and non-PFC material were identified across Texas; the non-PFC or reference road segments selected were similar to their PFC counterparts in terms of site specific features. Second, a negative binomial data generating process was assumed to model the underlying distribution of crash counts of PFC and reference road segments to perform Bayesian inference on the safety effectiveness. A data-augmentation based computationally efficient algorithm was employed for a fully Bayesian estimation. The statistical analysis shows that PFC is not effective in reducing wet weather crashes. It should be noted that the findings of this study are in agreement with the existing literature, although these studies were not based on a fully Bayesian statistical analysis. Our study suggests that the safety effectiveness of PFC road surfaces, or any other safety infrastructure, largely relies on its interrelationship with the road user. The results suggest that the safety infrastructure must be properly used to reap the benefits of the substantial investments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using SPM 12’s Second-Level Bayesian Inference Procedure for fMRI Analysis: Practical Guidelines for End Users

PubMed Central

Han, Hyemin; Park, Joonsuk

2018-01-01

Recent debates about the conventional traditional threshold used in the fields of neuroscience and psychology, namely P < 0.05, have spurred researchers to consider alternative ways to analyze fMRI data. A group of methodologists and statisticians have considered Bayesian inference as a candidate methodology. However, few previous studies have attempted to provide end users of fMRI analysis tools, such as SPM 12, with practical guidelines about how to conduct Bayesian inference. In the present study, we aim to demonstrate how to utilize Bayesian inference, Bayesian second-level inference in particular, implemented in SPM 12 by analyzing fMRI data available to public via NeuroVault. In addition, to help end users understand how Bayesian inference actually works in SPM 12, we examine outcomes from Bayesian second-level inference implemented in SPM 12 by comparing them with those from classical second-level inference. Finally, we provide practical guidelines about how to set the parameters for Bayesian inference and how to interpret the results, such as Bayes factors, from the inference. We also discuss the practical and philosophical benefits of Bayesian inference and directions for future research. PMID:29456498

Nuclear and cpDNA sequences combined provide strong inference of higher phylogenetic relationships in the phlox family (Polemoniaceae).

PubMed

Johnson, Leigh A; Chan, Lauren M; Weese, Terri L; Busby, Lisa D; McMurry, Samuel

2008-09-01

Members of the phlox family (Polemoniaceae) serve as useful models for studying various evolutionary and biological processes. Despite its biological importance, no family-wide phylogenetic estimate based on multiple DNA regions with complete generic sampling is available. Here, we analyze one nuclear and five chloroplast DNA sequence regions (nuclear ITS, chloroplast matK, trnL intron plus trnL-trnF intergeneric spacer, and the trnS-trnG, trnD-trnT, and psbM-trnD intergenic spacers) using parsimony and Bayesian methods, as well as assessments of congruence and long branch attraction, to explore phylogenetic relationships among 84 ingroup species representing all currently recognized Polemoniaceae genera. Relationships inferred from the ITS and concatenated chloroplast regions are similar overall. A combined analysis provides strong support for the monophyly of Polemoniaceae and subfamilies Acanthogilioideae, Cobaeoideae, and Polemonioideae. Relationships among subfamilies, and thus for the precise root of Polemoniaceae, remain poorly supported. Within the largest subfamily, Polemonioideae, four clades corresponding to tribes Polemonieae, Phlocideae, Gilieae, and Loeselieae receive strong support. The monogeneric Polemonieae appears sister to Phlocideae. Relationships within Polemonieae, Phlocideae, and Gilieae are mostly consistent between analyses and data permutations. Many relationships within Loeselieae remain uncertain. Overall, inferred phylogenetic relationships support a higher-level classification for Polemoniaceae proposed in 2000.

Phylogenetic framework for coevolutionary studies: a compass for exploring jungles of tangled trees.

PubMed

Martínez-Aquino, Andrés

2016-08-01

Phylogenetics is used to detect past evolutionary events, from how species originated to how their ecological interactions with other species arose, which can mirror cophylogenetic patterns. Cophylogenetic reconstructions uncover past ecological relationships between taxa through inferred coevolutionary events on trees, for example, codivergence, duplication, host-switching, and loss. These events can be detected by cophylogenetic analyses based on nodes and the length and branching pattern of the phylogenetic trees of symbiotic associations, for example, host-parasite. In the past 2 decades, algorithms have been developed for cophylogetenic analyses and implemented in different software, for example, statistical congruence index and event-based methods. Based on the combination of these approaches, it is possible to integrate temporal information into cophylogenetical inference, such as estimates of lineage divergence times between 2 taxa, for example, hosts and parasites. Additionally, the advances in phylogenetic biogeography applying methods based on parametric process models and combined Bayesian approaches, can be useful for interpreting coevolutionary histories in a scenario of biogeographical area connectivity through time. This article briefly reviews the basics of parasitology and provides an overview of software packages in cophylogenetic methods. Thus, the objective here is to present a phylogenetic framework for coevolutionary studies, with special emphasis on groups of parasitic organisms. Researchers wishing to undertake phylogeny-based coevolutionary studies can use this review as a "compass" when "walking" through jungles of tangled phylogenetic trees.

Phylogenetic inferences of Nepenthes species in Peninsular Malaysia revealed by chloroplast (trnL intron) and nuclear (ITS) DNA sequences.

PubMed

Bunawan, Hamidun; Yen, Choong Chee; Yaakop, Salmah; Noor, Normah Mohd

2017-01-26

The chloroplastic trnL intron and the nuclear internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region were sequenced for 11 Nepenthes species recorded in Peninsular Malaysia to examine their phylogenetic relationship and to evaluate the usage of trnL intron and ITS sequences for phylogenetic reconstruction of this genus. Phylogeny reconstruction was carried out using neighbor-joining, maximum parsimony and Bayesian analyses. All the trees revealed two major clusters, a lowland group consisting of N. ampullaria, N. mirabilis, N. gracilis and N. rafflesiana, and another containing both intermediately distributed species (N. albomarginata and N. benstonei) and four highland species (N. sanguinea, N. macfarlanei, N. ramispina and N. alba). The trnL intron and ITS sequences proved to provide phylogenetic informative characters for deriving a phylogeny of Nepenthes species in Peninsular Malaysia. To our knowledge, this is the first molecular phylogenetic study of Nepenthes species occurring along an altitudinal gradient in Peninsular Malaysia.

Bayesian analysis of non-homogeneous Markov chains: application to mental health data.

PubMed

Sung, Minje; Soyer, Refik; Nhan, Nguyen

2007-07-10

In this paper we present a formal treatment of non-homogeneous Markov chains by introducing a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Our work is motivated by the analysis of correlated categorical data which arise in assessment of psychiatric treatment programs. In our development, we introduce a Markovian structure to describe the non-homogeneity of transition patterns. In doing so, we introduce a logistic regression set-up for Markov chains and incorporate covariates in our model. We present a Bayesian model using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and develop inference procedures to address issues encountered in the analyses of data from psychiatric treatment programs. Our model and inference procedures are implemented to some real data from a psychiatric treatment study. Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Diversity Dynamics in Nymphalidae Butterflies: Effect of Phylogenetic Uncertainty on Diversification Rate Shift Estimates

PubMed Central

Peña, Carlos; Espeland, Marianne

2015-01-01

The species rich butterfly family Nymphalidae has been used to study evolutionary interactions between plants and insects. Theories of insect-hostplant dynamics predict accelerated diversification due to key innovations. In evolutionary biology, analysis of maximum credibility trees in the software MEDUSA (modelling evolutionary diversity using stepwise AIC) is a popular method for estimation of shifts in diversification rates. We investigated whether phylogenetic uncertainty can produce different results by extending the method across a random sample of trees from the posterior distribution of a Bayesian run. Using the MultiMEDUSA approach, we found that phylogenetic uncertainty greatly affects diversification rate estimates. Different trees produced diversification rates ranging from high values to almost zero for the same clade, and both significant rate increase and decrease in some clades. Only four out of 18 significant shifts found on the maximum clade credibility tree were consistent across most of the sampled trees. Among these, we found accelerated diversification for Ithomiini butterflies. We used the binary speciation and extinction model (BiSSE) and found that a hostplant shift to Solanaceae is correlated with increased net diversification rates in Ithomiini, congruent with the diffuse cospeciation hypothesis. Our results show that taking phylogenetic uncertainty into account when estimating net diversification rate shifts is of great importance, as very different results can be obtained when using the maximum clade credibility tree and other trees from the posterior distribution. PMID:25830910

A phylogenetic transform enhances analysis of compositional microbiota data.

PubMed

Silverman, Justin D; Washburne, Alex D; Mukherjee, Sayan; David, Lawrence A

2017-02-15

Surveys of microbial communities (microbiota), typically measured as relative abundance of species, have illustrated the importance of these communities in human health and disease. Yet, statistical artifacts commonly plague the analysis of relative abundance data. Here, we introduce the PhILR transform, which incorporates microbial evolutionary models with the isometric log-ratio transform to allow off-the-shelf statistical tools to be safely applied to microbiota surveys. We demonstrate that analyses of community-level structure can be applied to PhILR transformed data with performance on benchmarks rivaling or surpassing standard tools. Additionally, by decomposing distance in the PhILR transformed space, we identified neighboring clades that may have adapted to distinct human body sites. Decomposing variance revealed that covariation of bacterial clades within human body sites increases with phylogenetic relatedness. Together, these findings illustrate how the PhILR transform combines statistical and phylogenetic models to overcome compositional data challenges and enable evolutionary insights relevant to microbial communities.

The complete mitochondrial genome of rabbit pinworm Passalurus ambiguus: genome characterization and phylogenetic analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Guo-Hua; Li, Sheng; Zou, Feng-Cai; Wang, Chun-Ren; Zhu, Xing-Quan

2016-01-01

Passalurus ambiguus (Nematda: Oxyuridae) is a common pinworm which parasitizes in the caecum and colon of rabbits. Despite its significance as a pathogen, the epidemiology, genetics, systematics, and biology of this pinworm remain poorly understood. In the present study, we sequenced the complete mitochondrial (mt) genome of P. ambiguus. The circular mt genome is 14,023 bp in size and encodes of 36 genes, including 12 protein-coding, two ribosomal RNA, and 22 transfer RNA genes. The mt gene order of P. ambiguus is the same as that of Wellcomia siamensis, but distinct from that of Enterobius vermicularis. Phylogenetic analyses based on concatenated amino acid sequences of 12 protein-coding genes by Bayesian inference (BI) showed that P. ambiguus was more closely related to W. siamensis than to E. vermicularis. This mt genome provides novel genetic markers for studying the molecular epidemiology, population genetics, systematics of pinworm of animals and humans, and should have implications for the diagnosis, prevention, and control of passaluriasis in rabbits and other animals.

How to interpret the results of medical time series data analysis: Classical statistical approaches versus dynamic Bayesian network modeling.

PubMed

Onisko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J; Austin, R Marshall

2016-01-01

Classical statistics is a well-established approach in the analysis of medical data. While the medical community seems to be familiar with the concept of a statistical analysis and its interpretation, the Bayesian approach, argued by many of its proponents to be superior to the classical frequentist approach, is still not well-recognized in the analysis of medical data. The goal of this study is to encourage data analysts to use the Bayesian approach, such as modeling with graphical probabilistic networks, as an insightful alternative to classical statistical analysis of medical data. This paper offers a comparison of two approaches to analysis of medical time series data: (1) classical statistical approach, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and (2) dynamic Bayesian network modeling. Our comparison is based on time series cervical cancer screening data collected at Magee-Womens Hospital, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center over 10 years. The main outcomes of our comparison are cervical cancer risk assessments produced by the three approaches. However, our analysis discusses also several aspects of the comparison, such as modeling assumptions, model building, dealing with incomplete data, individualized risk assessment, results interpretation, and model validation. Our study shows that the Bayesian approach is (1) much more flexible in terms of modeling effort, and (2) it offers an individualized risk assessment, which is more cumbersome for classical statistical approaches.

Bayesian coronal seismology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arregui, Iñigo

2018-01-01

In contrast to the situation in a laboratory, the study of the solar atmosphere has to be pursued without direct access to the physical conditions of interest. Information is therefore incomplete and uncertain and inference methods need to be employed to diagnose the physical conditions and processes. One of such methods, solar atmospheric seismology, makes use of observed and theoretically predicted properties of waves to infer plasma and magnetic field properties. A recent development in solar atmospheric seismology consists in the use of inversion and model comparison methods based on Bayesian analysis. In this paper, the philosophy and methodology of Bayesian analysis are first explained. Then, we provide an account of what has been achieved so far from the application of these techniques to solar atmospheric seismology and a prospect of possible future extensions.

Bayesian approach for counting experiment statistics applied to a neutrino point source analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bose, D.; Brayeur, L.; Casier, M.; de Vries, K. D.; Golup, G.; van Eijndhoven, N.

2013-12-01

In this paper we present a model independent analysis method following Bayesian statistics to analyse data from a generic counting experiment and apply it to the search for neutrinos from point sources. We discuss a test statistic defined following a Bayesian framework that will be used in the search for a signal. In case no signal is found, we derive an upper limit without the introduction of approximations. The Bayesian approach allows us to obtain the full probability density function for both the background and the signal rate. As such, we have direct access to any signal upper limit. The upper limit derivation directly compares with a frequentist approach and is robust in the case of low-counting observations. Furthermore, it allows also to account for previous upper limits obtained by other analyses via the concept of prior information without the need of the ad hoc application of trial factors. To investigate the validity of the presented Bayesian approach, we have applied this method to the public IceCube 40-string configuration data for 10 nearby blazars and we have obtained a flux upper limit, which is in agreement with the upper limits determined via a frequentist approach. Furthermore, the upper limit obtained compares well with the previously published result of IceCube, using the same data set.

Phylogeny of sipunculan worms: A combined analysis of four gene regions and morphology.

PubMed

Schulze, Anja; Cutler, Edward B; Giribet, Gonzalo

2007-01-01

The intra-phyletic relationships of sipunculan worms were analyzed based on DNA sequence data from four gene regions and 58 morphological characters. Initially we analyzed the data under direct optimization using parsimony as optimality criterion. An implied alignment resulting from the direct optimization analysis was subsequently utilized to perform a Bayesian analysis with mixed models for the different data partitions. For this we applied a doublet model for the stem regions of the 18S rRNA. Both analyses support monophyly of Sipuncula and most of the same clades within the phylum. The analyses differ with respect to the relationships among the major groups but whereas the deep nodes in the direct optimization analysis generally show low jackknife support, they are supported by 100% posterior probability in the Bayesian analysis. Direct optimization has been useful for handling sequences of unequal length and generating conservative phylogenetic hypotheses whereas the Bayesian analysis under mixed models provided high resolution in the basal nodes of the tree.

Reticulate evolutionary history and extensive introgression in mosquito species revealed by phylogenetic network analysis

PubMed Central

Wen, Dingqiao; Yu, Yun; Hahn, Matthew W.; Nakhleh, Luay

2016-01-01

The role of hybridization and subsequent introgression has been demonstrated in an increasing number of species. Recently, Fontaine et al. (Science, 347, 2015, 1258524) conducted a phylogenomic analysis of six members of the Anopheles gambiae species complex. Their analysis revealed a reticulate evolutionary history and pointed to extensive introgression on all four autosomal arms. The study further highlighted the complex evolutionary signals that the co-occurrence of incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) and introgression can give rise to in phylogenomic analyses. While tree-based methodologies were used in the study, phylogenetic networks provide a more natural model to capture reticulate evolutionary histories. In this work, we reanalyse the Anopheles data using a recently devised framework that combines the multispecies coalescent with phylogenetic networks. This framework allows us to capture ILS and introgression simultaneously, and forms the basis for statistical methods for inferring reticulate evolutionary histories. The new analysis reveals a phylogenetic network with multiple hybridization events, some of which differ from those reported in the original study. To elucidate the extent and patterns of introgression across the genome, we devise a new method that quantifies the use of reticulation branches in the phylogenetic network by each genomic region. Applying the method to the mosquito data set reveals the evolutionary history of all the chromosomes. This study highlights the utility of ‘network thinking’ and the new insights it can uncover, in particular in phylogenomic analyses of large data sets with extensive gene tree incongruence. PMID:26808290

Combined target factor analysis and Bayesian soft-classification of interference-contaminated samples: forensic fire debris analysis.

PubMed

Williams, Mary R; Sigman, Michael E; Lewis, Jennifer; Pitan, Kelly McHugh

2012-10-10

A bayesian soft classification method combined with target factor analysis (TFA) is described and tested for the analysis of fire debris data. The method relies on analysis of the average mass spectrum across the chromatographic profile (i.e., the total ion spectrum, TIS) from multiple samples taken from a single fire scene. A library of TIS from reference ignitable liquids with assigned ASTM classification is used as the target factors in TFA. The class-conditional distributions of correlations between the target and predicted factors for each ASTM class are represented by kernel functions and analyzed by bayesian decision theory. The soft classification approach assists in assessing the probability that ignitable liquid residue from a specific ASTM E1618 class, is present in a set of samples from a single fire scene, even in the presence of unspecified background contributions from pyrolysis products. The method is demonstrated with sample data sets and then tested on laboratory-scale burn data and large-scale field test burns. The overall performance achieved in laboratory and field test of the method is approximately 80% correct classification of fire debris samples. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phylogenetic diversity and biodiversity indices on phylogenetic networks.

PubMed

Wicke, Kristina; Fischer, Mareike

2018-04-01

In biodiversity conservation it is often necessary to prioritize the species to conserve. Existing approaches to prioritization, e.g. the Fair Proportion Index and the Shapley Value, are based on phylogenetic trees and rank species according to their contribution to overall phylogenetic diversity. However, in many cases evolution is not treelike and thus, phylogenetic networks have been developed as a generalization of phylogenetic trees, allowing for the representation of non-treelike evolutionary events, such as hybridization. Here, we extend the concepts of phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic diversity indices from phylogenetic trees to phylogenetic networks. On the one hand, we consider the treelike content of a phylogenetic network, e.g. the (multi)set of phylogenetic trees displayed by a network and the so-called lowest stable ancestor tree associated with it. On the other hand, we derive the phylogenetic diversity of subsets of taxa and biodiversity indices directly from the internal structure of the network. We consider both approaches that are independent of so-called inheritance probabilities as well as approaches that explicitly incorporate these probabilities. Furthermore, we introduce our software package NetDiversity, which is implemented in Perl and allows for the calculation of all generalized measures of phylogenetic diversity and generalized phylogenetic diversity indices established in this note that are independent of inheritance probabilities. We apply our methods to a phylogenetic network representing the evolutionary relationships among swordtails and platyfishes (Xiphophorus: Poeciliidae), a group of species characterized by widespread hybridization. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Towards a formal genealogical classification of the Lezgian languages (North Caucasus): testing various phylogenetic methods on lexical data.

PubMed

Kassian, Alexei

2015-01-01

A lexicostatistical classification is proposed for 20 languages and dialects of the Lezgian group of the North Caucasian family, based on meticulously compiled 110-item wordlists, published as part of the Global Lexicostatistical Database project. The lexical data have been subsequently analyzed with the aid of the principal phylogenetic methods, both distance-based and character-based: Starling neighbor joining (StarlingNJ), Neighbor joining (NJ), Unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean (UPGMA), Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Unweighted maximum parsimony (UMP). Cognation indexes within the input matrix were marked by two different algorithms: traditional etymological approach and phonetic similarity, i.e., the automatic method of consonant classes (Levenshtein distances). Due to certain reasons (first of all, high lexicographic quality of the wordlists and a consensus about the Lezgian phylogeny among Caucasologists), the Lezgian database is a perfect testing area for appraisal of phylogenetic methods. For the etymology-based input matrix, all the phylogenetic methods, with the possible exception of UMP, have yielded trees that are sufficiently compatible with each other to generate a consensus phylogenetic tree of the Lezgian lects. The obtained consensus tree agrees with the traditional expert classification as well as some of the previously proposed formal classifications of this linguistic group. Contrary to theoretical expectations, the UMP method has suggested the least plausible tree of all. In the case of the phonetic similarity-based input matrix, the distance-based methods (StarlingNJ, NJ, UPGMA) have produced the trees that are rather close to the consensus etymology-based tree and the traditional expert classification, whereas the character-based methods (Bayesian MCMC, UMP) have yielded less likely topologies.

Towards a Formal Genealogical Classification of the Lezgian Languages (North Caucasus): Testing Various Phylogenetic Methods on Lexical Data

PubMed Central

Kassian, Alexei

2015-01-01

A lexicostatistical classification is proposed for 20 languages and dialects of the Lezgian group of the North Caucasian family, based on meticulously compiled 110-item wordlists, published as part of the Global Lexicostatistical Database project. The lexical data have been subsequently analyzed with the aid of the principal phylogenetic methods, both distance-based and character-based: Starling neighbor joining (StarlingNJ), Neighbor joining (NJ), Unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean (UPGMA), Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Unweighted maximum parsimony (UMP). Cognation indexes within the input matrix were marked by two different algorithms: traditional etymological approach and phonetic similarity, i.e., the automatic method of consonant classes (Levenshtein distances). Due to certain reasons (first of all, high lexicographic quality of the wordlists and a consensus about the Lezgian phylogeny among Caucasologists), the Lezgian database is a perfect testing area for appraisal of phylogenetic methods. For the etymology-based input matrix, all the phylogenetic methods, with the possible exception of UMP, have yielded trees that are sufficiently compatible with each other to generate a consensus phylogenetic tree of the Lezgian lects. The obtained consensus tree agrees with the traditional expert classification as well as some of the previously proposed formal classifications of this linguistic group. Contrary to theoretical expectations, the UMP method has suggested the least plausible tree of all. In the case of the phonetic similarity-based input matrix, the distance-based methods (StarlingNJ, NJ, UPGMA) have produced the trees that are rather close to the consensus etymology-based tree and the traditional expert classification, whereas the character-based methods (Bayesian MCMC, UMP) have yielded less likely topologies. PMID:25719456

Bayesian Nonparametric Ordination for the Analysis of Microbial Communities.

PubMed

Ren, Boyu; Bacallado, Sergio; Favaro, Stefano; Holmes, Susan; Trippa, Lorenzo

2017-01-01

Human microbiome studies use sequencing technologies to measure the abundance of bacterial species or Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs) in samples of biological material. Typically the data are organized in contingency tables with OTU counts across heterogeneous biological samples. In the microbial ecology community, ordination methods are frequently used to investigate latent factors or clusters that capture and describe variations of OTU counts across biological samples. It remains important to evaluate how uncertainty in estimates of each biological sample's microbial distribution propagates to ordination analyses, including visualization of clusters and projections of biological samples on low dimensional spaces. We propose a Bayesian analysis for dependent distributions to endow frequently used ordinations with estimates of uncertainty. A Bayesian nonparametric prior for dependent normalized random measures is constructed, which is marginally equivalent to the normalized generalized Gamma process, a well-known prior for nonparametric analyses. In our prior, the dependence and similarity between microbial distributions is represented by latent factors that concentrate in a low dimensional space. We use a shrinkage prior to tune the dimensionality of the latent factors. The resulting posterior samples of model parameters can be used to evaluate uncertainty in analyses routinely applied in microbiome studies. Specifically, by combining them with multivariate data analysis techniques we can visualize credible regions in ecological ordination plots. The characteristics of the proposed model are illustrated through a simulation study and applications in two microbiome datasets.

Daniel Goodman’s empirical approach to Bayesian statistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerrodette, Tim; Ward, Eric; Taylor, Rebecca L.; Schwarz, Lisa K.; Eguchi, Tomoharu; Wade, Paul; Himes Boor, Gina

2016-01-01

Bayesian statistics, in contrast to classical statistics, uses probability to represent uncertainty about the state of knowledge. Bayesian statistics has often been associated with the idea that knowledge is subjective and that a probability distribution represents a personal degree of belief. Dr. Daniel Goodman considered this viewpoint problematic for issues of public policy. He sought to ground his Bayesian approach in data, and advocated the construction of a prior as an empirical histogram of “similar” cases. In this way, the posterior distribution that results from a Bayesian analysis combined comparable previous data with case-specific current data, using Bayes’ formula. Goodman championed such a data-based approach, but he acknowledged that it was difficult in practice. If based on a true representation of our knowledge and uncertainty, Goodman argued that risk assessment and decision-making could be an exact science, despite the uncertainties. In his view, Bayesian statistics is a critical component of this science because a Bayesian analysis produces the probabilities of future outcomes. Indeed, Goodman maintained that the Bayesian machinery, following the rules of conditional probability, offered the best legitimate inference from available data. We give an example of an informative prior in a recent study of Steller sea lion spatial use patterns in Alaska.

DIVERSITY OF BAT-ASSOCIATED LEPTOSPIRA IN THE PERUVIAN AMAZON INFERRED BY BAYESIAN PHYLOGENETIC ANALYSIS OF 16S RIBOSOMAL DNA SEQUENCES

PubMed Central

MATTHIAS, MICHAEL A.; DÍAZ, M. MÓNICA; CAMPOS, KALINA J.; CALDERON, MARITZA; WILLIG, MICHAEL R.; PACHECO, VICTOR; GOTUZZO, EDUARDO; GILMAN, ROBERT H.; VINETZ, JOSEPH M.

2008-01-01

The role of bats as potential sources of transmission to humans or as maintenance hosts of leptospires is poorly understood. We quantified the prevalence of leptospiral colonization in bats in the Peruvian Amazon in the vicinity of Iquitos, an area of high biologic diversity. Of 589 analyzed bats, culture (3 of 589) and molecular evidence (20 of 589) of leptospiral colonization was found in the kidneys, yielding an overall colonization rate of 3.4%. Infection rates differed with habitat and location, and among different bat species. Bayesian analysis was used to infer phylogenic relationships of leptospiral 16S ribosomal DNA sequences. Tree topologies were consistent with groupings based on DNA-DNA hybridization studies. A diverse group of leptospires was found in peri-Iquitos bat populations including Leptospira interrogans (5 clones), L. kirschneri (1), L. borgpetersenii (4), L. fainei (1), and two previously undescribed leptospiral species (8). Although L. kirschenri and L. interrogans have been previously isolated from bats, this report is the first to describe L. borgpetersenii and L. fainei infection of bats. A wild animal reservoir of L. fainei has not been previously described. The detection in bats of the L. interrogans serovar Icterohemorrhagiae, a leptospire typically maintained by peridomestic rats, suggests a rodent-bat infection cycle. Bats in Iquitos maintain a genetically diverse group of leptospires. These results provide a solid basis for pursuing molecular epidemiologic studies of bat-associated Leptospira, a potentially new epidemiologic reservoir of transmission of leptospirosis to humans. PMID:16282313

Whole genome sequence phylogenetic analysis of four Mexican rabies viruses isolated from cattle.

PubMed

Bárcenas-Reyes, I; Loza-Rubio, E; Cantó-Alarcón, G J; Luna-Cozar, J; Enríquez-Vázquez, A; Barrón-Rodríguez, R J; Milián-Suazo, F

2017-08-01

Phylogenetic analysis of the rabies virus in molecular epidemiology has been traditionally performed on partial sequences of the genome, such as the N, G, and P genes; however, that approach raises concerns about the discriminatory power compared to whole genome sequencing. In this study we characterized four strains of the rabies virus isolated from cattle in Querétaro, Mexico by comparing the whole genome sequence to that of strains from the American, European and Asian continents. Four cattle brain samples positive to rabies and characterized as AgV11, genotype 1, were used in the study. A cDNA sequence was generated by reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) using oligo dT. cDNA samples were sequenced in an Illumina NextSeq 500 platform. The phylogenetic analysis was performed with MEGA 6.0. Minimum evolution phylogenetic trees were constructed with the Neighbor-Joining method and bootstrapped with 1000 replicates. Three large and seven small clusters were formed with the 26 sequences used. The largest cluster grouped strains from different species in South America: Brazil, and the French Guyana. The second cluster grouped five strains from Mexico. A Mexican strain reported in a different study was highly related to our four strains, suggesting common source of infection. The phylogenetic analysis shows that the type of host is different for the different regions in the American Continent; rabies is more related to bats. It was concluded that the rabies virus in central Mexico is genetically stable and that it is transmitted by the vampire bat Desmodus rotundus. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A novel Bayesian approach to acoustic emission data analysis.

PubMed

Agletdinov, E; Pomponi, E; Merson, D; Vinogradov, A

2016-12-01

Acoustic emission (AE) technique is a popular tool for materials characterization and non-destructive testing. Originating from the stochastic motion of defects in solids, AE is a random process by nature. The challenging problem arises whenever an attempt is made to identify specific points corresponding to the changes in the trends in the fluctuating AE time series. A general Bayesian framework is proposed for the analysis of AE time series, aiming at automated finding the breakpoints signaling a crossover in the dynamics of underlying AE sources. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian estimation of dynamic matching function for U-V analysis in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kyo, Koki; Noda, Hideo; Kitagawa, Genshiro

2012-05-01

In this paper we propose a Bayesian method for analyzing unemployment dynamics. We derive a Beveridge curve for unemployment and vacancy (U-V) analysis from a Bayesian model based on a labor market matching function. In our framework, the efficiency of matching and the elasticities of new hiring with respect to unemployment and vacancy are regarded as time varying parameters. To construct a flexible model and obtain reasonable estimates in an underdetermined estimation problem, we treat the time varying parameters as random variables and introduce smoothness priors. The model is then described in a state space representation, enabling the parameter estimation to be carried out using Kalman filter and fixed interval smoothing. In such a representation, dynamic features of the cyclic unemployment rate and the structural-frictional unemployment rate can be accurately captured.

Mitochondrial Genome of the Stonefly Kamimuria wangi (Plecoptera: Perlidae) and Phylogenetic Position of Plecoptera Based on Mitogenomes

PubMed Central

Yu-Han, Qian; Hai-Yan, Wu; Xiao-Yu, Ji; Wei-Wei, Yu; Yu-Zhou, Du

2014-01-01

This study determined the mitochondrial genome sequence of the stonefly, Kamimuria wangi. In order to investigate the relatedness of stonefly to other members of Neoptera, a phylogenetic analysis was undertaken based on 13 protein-coding genes of mitochondrial genomes in 13 representative insects. The mitochondrial genome of the stonefly is a circular molecule consisting of 16,179 nucleotides and contains the 37 genes typically found in other insects. A 10-bp poly-T stretch was observed in the A+T-rich region of the K. wangi mitochondrial genome. Downstream of the poly-T stretch, two regions were located with potential ability to form stem-loop structures; these were designated stem-loop 1 (positions 15848–15651) and stem-loop 2 (15965–15998). The arrangement of genes and nucleotide composition of the K. wangi mitogenome are similar to those in Pteronarcys princeps, suggesting a conserved genome evolution within the Plecoptera. Phylogenetic analysis using maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference of 13 protein-coding genes supported a novel relationship between the Plecoptera and Ephemeroptera. The results contradict the existence of a monophyletic Plectoptera and Plecoptera as sister taxa to Embiidina, and thus requires further analyses with additional mitogenome sampling at the base of the Neoptera. PMID:24466028

Mitochondrial genome of the stonefly Kamimuria wangi (Plecoptera: Perlidae) and phylogenetic position of plecoptera based on mitogenomes.

PubMed

Yu-Han, Qian; Hai-Yan, Wu; Xiao-Yu, Ji; Wei-Wei, Yu; Yu-Zhou, Du

2014-01-01

This study determined the mitochondrial genome sequence of the stonefly, Kamimuria wangi. In order to investigate the relatedness of stonefly to other members of Neoptera, a phylogenetic analysis was undertaken based on 13 protein-coding genes of mitochondrial genomes in 13 representative insects. The mitochondrial genome of the stonefly is a circular molecule consisting of 16,179 nucleotides and contains the 37 genes typically found in other insects. A 10-bp poly-T stretch was observed in the A+T-rich region of the K. wangi mitochondrial genome. Downstream of the poly-T stretch, two regions were located with potential ability to form stem-loop structures; these were designated stem-loop 1 (positions 15848-15651) and stem-loop 2 (15965-15998). The arrangement of genes and nucleotide composition of the K. wangi mitogenome are similar to those in Pteronarcys princeps, suggesting a conserved genome evolution within the Plecoptera. Phylogenetic analysis using maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference of 13 protein-coding genes supported a novel relationship between the Plecoptera and Ephemeroptera. The results contradict the existence of a monophyletic Plectoptera and Plecoptera as sister taxa to Embiidina, and thus requires further analyses with additional mitogenome sampling at the base of the Neoptera.

[A phylogenetic analysis of plant communities of Teberda Biosphere Reserve].

PubMed

Shulakov, A A; Egorov, A V; Onipchenko, V G

2016-01-01

Phylogenetic analysis of communities is based on the comparison of distances on the phylogenetic tree between species of a community under study and those distances in random samples taken out of local flora. It makes it possible to determine to what extent a community composition is formed by more closely related species (i.e., "clustered") or, on the opposite, it is more even and includes species that are less related with each other. The first case is usually interpreted as a result of strong influence caused by abiotic factors, due to which species with similar ecology, a priori more closely related, would remain: In the second case, biotic factors, such as competition, may come to the fore and lead to forming a community out of distant clades due to divergence of their ecological niches: The aim of this' study Was Ad explore the phylogenetic structure in communities of the northwestern Caucasus at two spatial scales - the scale of area from 4 to 100 m2 and the smaller scale within a community. The list of local flora of the alpine belt has been composed using the database of geobotanic descriptions carried out in Teberda Biosphere Reserve at true altitudes exceeding.1800 m. It includes 585 species of flowering plants belonging to 57 families. Basal groups of flowering plants are.not represented in the list. At the scale of communities of three classes, namely Thlaspietea rotundifolii - commumties formed on screes and pebbles, Calluno-Ulicetea - alpine meadow, and Mulgedio-Aconitetea subalpine meadows, have not demonstrated significant distinction of phylogenetic structure. At intra level, for alpine meadows the larger share of closely related species. (clustered community) is detected. Significantly clustered happen to be those communities developing on rocks (class Asplenietea trichomanis) and alpine (class Juncetea trifidi). At the same time, alpine lichen proved to have even phylogenetic structure at the small scale. Alpine (class Salicetea herbaceae) that

Phylogenetic analysis of the cytochrome P450 3 (CYP3) gene family.

PubMed

McArthur, Andrew G; Hegelund, Tove; Cox, Rachel L; Stegeman, John J; Liljenberg, Mette; Olsson, Urban; Sundberg, Per; Celander, Malin C

2003-08-01

Cytochrome P450 genes (CYP) constitute a superfamily with members known from the Bacteria, Archaea, and Eukarya. The CYP3 gene family includes the CYP3A and CYP3B subfamilies. Members of the CYP3A subfamily represent the dominant CYP forms expressed in the digestive and respiratory tracts of vertebrates. The CYP3A enzymes metabolize a wide variety of chemically diverse lipophilic organic compounds. To understand vertebrate CYP3 diversity better, we determined the killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) CYP3A30 and CYP3A56 and the ball python (Python regius) CYP3A42 sequences. We performed phylogenetic analyses of 45 vertebrate CYP3 amino acid sequences using a Bayesian approach. Our analyses indicate that teleost, diapsid, and mammalian CYP3A genes have undergone independent diversification and that the ancestral vertebrate genome contained a single CYP3A gene. Most CYP3A diversity is the product of recent gene duplication events. There is strong support for placement of the guinea pig CYP3A genes within the rodent CYP3A diversification. The rat, mouse, and hamster CYP3A genes are mixed among several rodent CYP3A subclades, indicative of a complex history involving speciation and gene duplication.

The complete mitochondrial genome of Papilio glaucus and its phylogenetic implications.

PubMed

Shen, Jinhui; Cong, Qian; Grishin, Nick V

2015-09-01

Due to the intriguing morphology, lifecycle, and diversity of butterflies and moths, Lepidoptera are emerging as model organisms for the study of genetics, evolution and speciation. The progress of these studies relies on decoding Lepidoptera genomes, both nuclear and mitochondrial. Here we describe a protocol to obtain mitogenomes from Next Generation Sequencing reads performed for whole-genome sequencing and report the complete mitogenome of Papilio (Pterourus) glaucus. The circular mitogenome is 15,306 bp in length and rich in A and T. It contains 13 protein-coding genes (PCGs), 22 transfer-RNA-coding genes (tRNA), and 2 ribosomal-RNA-coding genes (rRNA), with a gene order typical for mitogenomes of Lepidoptera. We performed phylogenetic analyses based on PCG and RNA-coding genes or protein sequences using Bayesian Inference and Maximum Likelihood methods. The phylogenetic trees consistently show that among species with available mitogenomes Papilio glaucus is the closest to Papilio (Agehana) maraho from Asia.

Visualizing Phylogenetic Treespace Using Cartographic Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sundberg, Kenneth; Clement, Mark; Snell, Quinn

Phylogenetic analysis is becoming an increasingly important tool for biological research. Applications include epidemiological studies, drug development, and evolutionary analysis. Phylogenetic search is a known NP-Hard problem. The size of the data sets which can be analyzed is limited by the exponential growth in the number of trees that must be considered as the problem size increases. A better understanding of the problem space could lead to better methods, which in turn could lead to the feasible analysis of more data sets. We present a definition of phylogenetic tree space and a visualization of this space that shows significant exploitable structure. This structure can be used to develop search methods capable of handling much larger datasets.

Phylogenetic analysis of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus isolates from Northern Ireland.

PubMed

Smith, Natalie; Power, Ultan F; McKillen, John

2018-05-29

To investigate the genetic diversity of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) in Northern Ireland, the ORF5 gene from nine field isolates was sequenced and phylogenetically analysed. The results revealed relatively high diversity amongst isolates, with 87.6-92.2% identity between farms at the nucleotide level and 84.1-93.5% identity at the protein level. Phylogenetic analysis confirmed that all nine isolates belonged to the European (type 1) genotype and formed a cluster within the subtype 1 subgroup. This study provides the first report on PRRSV isolate diversity in Northern Ireland.

Comparative genomic analysis and phylogenetic position of Theileria equi

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Transmission of arthropod-borne apicomplexan parasites that cause disease and result in death or persistent infection represents a major challenge to global human and animal health. First described in 1901 as Piroplasma equi, this re-emergent apicomplexan parasite was renamed Babesia equi and subsequently Theileria equi, reflecting an uncertain taxonomy. Understanding mechanisms by which apicomplexan parasites evade immune or chemotherapeutic elimination is required for development of effective vaccines or chemotherapeutics. The continued risk of transmission of T. equi from clinically silent, persistently infected equids impedes the goal of returning the U. S. to non-endemic status. Therefore comparative genomic analysis of T. equi was undertaken to: 1) identify genes contributing to immune evasion and persistence in equid hosts, 2) identify genes involved in PBMC infection biology and 3) define the phylogenetic position of T. equi relative to sequenced apicomplexan parasites. Results The known immunodominant proteins, EMA1, 2 and 3 were discovered to belong to a ten member gene family with a mean amino acid identity, in pairwise comparisons, of 39%. Importantly, the amino acid diversity of EMAs is distributed throughout the length of the proteins. Eight of the EMA genes were simultaneously transcribed. As the agents that cause bovine theileriosis infect and transform host cell PBMCs, we confirmed that T. equi infects equine PBMCs, however, there is no evidence of host cell transformation. Indeed, a number of genes identified as potential manipulators of the host cell phenotype are absent from the T. equi genome. Comparative genomic analysis of T. equi revealed the phylogenetic positioning relative to seven apicomplexan parasites using deduced amino acid sequences from 150 genes placed it as a sister taxon to Theileria spp. Conclusions The EMA family does not fit the paradigm for classical antigenic variation, and we propose a novel model describing the

Dengue Virus Type 4 Phylogenetics in Brazil 2011: Looking beyond the Veil

PubMed Central

de Souza, Renato Pereira; Rocco, Iray M.; Maeda, Adriana Y.; Spenassatto, Carine; Bisordi, Ivani; Suzuki, Akemi; Silveira, Vivian R.; Silva, Sarai J. S.; Azevedo, Roberta M.; Tolentino, Fernanda M.; Assis, Jaqueline C.; Bassi, Margarida G.; Dambrós, Bibiana P.; Tumioto, Gabriela L.; Gregianini, Tatiana S.; Souza, Luiza Terezinha M.; Timenetsky, Maria do Carmo S. T.; Santos, Cecília L. S.

2011-01-01

Dengue Fever and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever are diseases affecting approximately 100 million people/year and are a major concern in developing countries. In the present study, the phylogenetic relationship of six strains of the first autochthonous cases of DENV-4 infection occurred in Sao Paulo State, Parana State and Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil, 2011 were studied. Nucleotide sequences of the envelope gene were determined and compared with sequences representative of the genotypes I, II, III and Sylvatic for DEN4 retrieved from GenBank. We employed a Bayesian phylogenetic approach to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationships of Brazilian DENV-4 and we estimated evolutionary rates and dates of divergence for DENV-4 found in Brazil in 2011. All samples sequenced in this study were located in Genotype II. The studied strains are monophyletic and our data suggest that they have been evolving separately for at least 4 to 6 years. Our data suggest that the virus might have been present in the region for some time, without being noticed by Health Surveillance Services due to a low level of circulation and a higher prevalence of DENV-1 and DENV- 2. PMID:22216365

Bayesian bivariate meta-analysis of diagnostic test studies with interpretable priors.

PubMed

Guo, Jingyi; Riebler, Andrea; Rue, Håvard

2017-08-30

In a bivariate meta-analysis, the number of diagnostic studies involved is often very low so that frequentist methods may result in problems. Using Bayesian inference is particularly attractive as informative priors that add a small amount of information can stabilise the analysis without overwhelming the data. However, Bayesian analysis is often computationally demanding and the selection of the prior for the covariance matrix of the bivariate structure is crucial with little data. The integrated nested Laplace approximations method provides an efficient solution to the computational issues by avoiding any sampling, but the important question of priors remain. We explore the penalised complexity (PC) prior framework for specifying informative priors for the variance parameters and the correlation parameter. PC priors facilitate model interpretation and hyperparameter specification as expert knowledge can be incorporated intuitively. We conduct a simulation study to compare the properties and behaviour of differently defined PC priors to currently used priors in the field. The simulation study shows that the PC prior seems beneficial for the variance parameters. The use of PC priors for the correlation parameter results in more precise estimates when specified in a sensible neighbourhood around the truth. To investigate the usage of PC priors in practice, we reanalyse a meta-analysis using the telomerase marker for the diagnosis of bladder cancer and compare the results with those obtained by other commonly used modelling approaches. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predictive distributions for between-study heterogeneity and simple methods for their application in Bayesian meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Turner, Rebecca M; Jackson, Dan; Wei, Yinghui; Thompson, Simon G; Higgins, Julian P T

2015-01-01

Numerous meta-analyses in healthcare research combine results from only a small number of studies, for which the variance representing between-study heterogeneity is estimated imprecisely. A Bayesian approach to estimation allows external evidence on the expected magnitude of heterogeneity to be incorporated. The aim of this paper is to provide tools that improve the accessibility of Bayesian meta-analysis. We present two methods for implementing Bayesian meta-analysis, using numerical integration and importance sampling techniques. Based on 14 886 binary outcome meta-analyses in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, we derive a novel set of predictive distributions for the degree of heterogeneity expected in 80 settings depending on the outcomes assessed and comparisons made. These can be used as prior distributions for heterogeneity in future meta-analyses. The two methods are implemented in R, for which code is provided. Both methods produce equivalent results to standard but more complex Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches. The priors are derived as log-normal distributions for the between-study variance, applicable to meta-analyses of binary outcomes on the log odds-ratio scale. The methods are applied to two example meta-analyses, incorporating the relevant predictive distributions as prior distributions for between-study heterogeneity. We have provided resources to facilitate Bayesian meta-analysis, in a form accessible to applied researchers, which allow relevant prior information on the degree of heterogeneity to be incorporated. © 2014 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:25475839

Molecular identification and phylogenetic analysis of Wuchereria bancrofti from human blood samples in Egypt.

PubMed

Abdel-Shafi, Iman R; Shoieb, Eman Y; Attia, Samar S; Rubio, José M; Ta-Tang, Thuy-Huong; El-Badry, Ayman A

2017-03-01

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a serious vector-borne health problem, and Wuchereria bancrofti (W.b) is the major cause of LF worldwide and is focally endemic in Egypt. Identification of filarial infection using traditional morphologic and immunological criteria can be difficult and lead to misdiagnosis. The aim of the present study was molecular detection of W.b in residents in endemic areas in Egypt, sequence variance analysis, and phylogenetic analysis of W.b DNA. Collected blood samples from residents in filariasis endemic areas in five governorates were subjected to semi-nested PCR targeting repeated DNA sequence, for detection of W.b DNA. PCR products were sequenced; subsequently, a phylogenetic analysis of the obtained sequences was performed. Out of 300 blood samples, W.b DNA was identified in 48 (16%). Sequencing analysis confirmed PCR results identifying only W.b species. Sequence alignment and phylogenetic analysis indicated genetically distinct clusters of W.b among the study population. Study results demonstrated that the semi-nested PCR proved to be an effective diagnostic tool for accurate and rapid detection of W.b infections in nano-epidemics and is applicable for samples collected in the daytime as well as the night time. PCR products sequencing and phylogenitic analysis revealed three different nucleotide sequences variants. Further genetic studies of W.b in Egypt and other endemic areas are needed to distinguish related strains and the various ecological as well as drug effects exerted on them to support W.b elimination.

A revision and phylogenetic analysis of the spider genus Oxysoma Nicolet (Araneae: Anyphaenidae, Amaurobioidinae).

PubMed

Aisen, Santiago; Ramírez, Martín J

2015-08-06

We review the spider genus Oxysoma Nicolet, with most of its species endemic from the southern temperate forests in Chile and Argentina, and present a phylogenetic analysis including seven species, of which three are newly described in this study (O. macrocuspis new species, O. kuni new species, and O. losruiles new species, all from Chile), together with other 107 representatives of Anyphaenidae. New geographical records and distribution maps are provided for all species, with illustrations and reviewed diagnoses for the genus and the four previously known species (O. punctatum Nicolet, O. saccatum (Tullgren), O. longiventre (Nicolet) and O. itambezinho Ramírez). The phylogenetic analysis using cladistic methods is based on 264 previously defined characters plus one character that arises from this study. The three new species are closely related with Oxysoma longiventre, and this four species compose what we define as the Oxysoma longiventre species group. The phylogenetic analysis did not retrieve the monophyly of Oxysoma, which should be reevaluated in the future, together with the genus Tasata.

Phylogenetic inertia and Darwin's higher law.

PubMed

Shanahan, Timothy

2011-03-01

The concept of 'phylogenetic inertia' is routinely deployed in evolutionary biology as an alternative to natural selection for explaining the persistence of characteristics that appear sub-optimal from an adaptationist perspective. However, in many of these contexts the precise meaning of 'phylogenetic inertia' and its relationship to selection are far from clear. After tracing the history of the concept of 'inertia' in evolutionary biology, I argue that treating phylogenetic inertia and natural selection as alternative explanations is mistaken because phylogenetic inertia is, from a Darwinian point of view, simply an expected effect of selection. Although Darwin did not discuss 'phylogenetic inertia,' he did assert the explanatory priority of selection over descent. An analysis of 'phylogenetic inertia' provides a perspective from which to assess Darwin's view. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian multivariate hierarchical transformation models for ROC analysis.

PubMed

O'Malley, A James; Zou, Kelly H

2006-02-15

A Bayesian multivariate hierarchical transformation model (BMHTM) is developed for receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis based on clustered continuous diagnostic outcome data with covariates. Two special features of this model are that it incorporates non-linear monotone transformations of the outcomes and that multiple correlated outcomes may be analysed. The mean, variance, and transformation components are all modelled parametrically, enabling a wide range of inferences. The general framework is illustrated by focusing on two problems: (1) analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of a covariate-dependent univariate test outcome requiring a Box-Cox transformation within each cluster to map the test outcomes to a common family of distributions; (2) development of an optimal composite diagnostic test using multivariate clustered outcome data. In the second problem, the composite test is estimated using discriminant function analysis and compared to the test derived from logistic regression analysis where the gold standard is a binary outcome. The proposed methodology is illustrated on prostate cancer biopsy data from a multi-centre clinical trial.

Bayesian multivariate hierarchical transformation models for ROC analysis

PubMed Central

O'Malley, A. James; Zou, Kelly H.

2006-01-01

SUMMARY A Bayesian multivariate hierarchical transformation model (BMHTM) is developed for receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis based on clustered continuous diagnostic outcome data with covariates. Two special features of this model are that it incorporates non-linear monotone transformations of the outcomes and that multiple correlated outcomes may be analysed. The mean, variance, and transformation components are all modelled parametrically, enabling a wide range of inferences. The general framework is illustrated by focusing on two problems: (1) analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of a covariate-dependent univariate test outcome requiring a Box–Cox transformation within each cluster to map the test outcomes to a common family of distributions; (2) development of an optimal composite diagnostic test using multivariate clustered outcome data. In the second problem, the composite test is estimated using discriminant function analysis and compared to the test derived from logistic regression analysis where the gold standard is a binary outcome. The proposed methodology is illustrated on prostate cancer biopsy data from a multi-centre clinical trial. PMID:16217836

Diversification of land plants: insights from a family-level phylogenetic analysis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Some of the evolutionary history of land plants has been documented based on the fossil record and a few broad-scale phylogenetic analyses, especially focusing on angiosperms and ferns. Here, we reconstructed phylogenetic relationships among all 706 families of land plants using molecular data. We dated the phylogeny using multiple fossils and a molecular clock technique. Applying various tests of diversification that take into account topology, branch length, numbers of extant species as well as extinction, we evaluated diversification rates through time. We also compared these diversification profiles against the distribution of the climate modes of the Phanerozoic. Results We found evidence for the radiations of ferns and mosses in the shadow of angiosperms coinciding with the rather warm Cretaceous global climate. In contrast, gymnosperms and liverworts show a signature of declining diversification rates during geological time periods of cool global climate. Conclusions This broad-scale phylogenetic analysis helps to reveal the successive waves of diversification that made up the diversity of land plants we see today. Both warm temperatures and wet climate may have been necessary for the rise of the diversity under a successive lineage replacement scenario. PMID:22103931

Diversification of land plants: insights from a family-level phylogenetic analysis.

PubMed

Fiz-Palacios, Omar; Schneider, Harald; Heinrichs, Jochen; Savolainen, Vincent

2011-11-21

Some of the evolutionary history of land plants has been documented based on the fossil record and a few broad-scale phylogenetic analyses, especially focusing on angiosperms and ferns. Here, we reconstructed phylogenetic relationships among all 706 families of land plants using molecular data. We dated the phylogeny using multiple fossils and a molecular clock technique. Applying various tests of diversification that take into account topology, branch length, numbers of extant species as well as extinction, we evaluated diversification rates through time. We also compared these diversification profiles against the distribution of the climate modes of the Phanerozoic. We found evidence for the radiations of ferns and mosses in the shadow of angiosperms coinciding with the rather warm Cretaceous global climate. In contrast, gymnosperms and liverworts show a signature of declining diversification rates during geological time periods of cool global climate. This broad-scale phylogenetic analysis helps to reveal the successive waves of diversification that made up the diversity of land plants we see today. Both warm temperatures and wet climate may have been necessary for the rise of the diversity under a successive lineage replacement scenario.

Phylogenetic framework for coevolutionary studies: a compass for exploring jungles of tangled trees

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Abstract Phylogenetics is used to detect past evolutionary events, from how species originated to how their ecological interactions with other species arose, which can mirror cophylogenetic patterns. Cophylogenetic reconstructions uncover past ecological relationships between taxa through inferred coevolutionary events on trees, for example, codivergence, duplication, host-switching, and loss. These events can be detected by cophylogenetic analyses based on nodes and the length and branching pattern of the phylogenetic trees of symbiotic associations, for example, host–parasite. In the past 2 decades, algorithms have been developed for cophylogetenic analyses and implemented in different software, for example, statistical congruence index and event-based methods. Based on the combination of these approaches, it is possible to integrate temporal information into cophylogenetical inference, such as estimates of lineage divergence times between 2 taxa, for example, hosts and parasites. Additionally, the advances in phylogenetic biogeography applying methods based on parametric process models and combined Bayesian approaches, can be useful for interpreting coevolutionary histories in a scenario of biogeographical area connectivity through time. This article briefly reviews the basics of parasitology and provides an overview of software packages in cophylogenetic methods. Thus, the objective here is to present a phylogenetic framework for coevolutionary studies, with special emphasis on groups of parasitic organisms. Researchers wishing to undertake phylogeny-based coevolutionary studies can use this review as a “compass” when “walking” through jungles of tangled phylogenetic trees. PMID:29491928

A Format for Phylogenetic Placements

PubMed Central

Matsen, Frederick A.; Hoffman, Noah G.; Gallagher, Aaron; Stamatakis, Alexandros

2012-01-01

We have developed a unified format for phylogenetic placements, that is, mappings of environmental sequence data (e.g., short reads) into a phylogenetic tree. We are motivated to do so by the growing number of tools for computing and post-processing phylogenetic placements, and the lack of an established standard for storing them. The format is lightweight, versatile, extensible, and is based on the JSON format, which can be parsed by most modern programming languages. Our format is already implemented in several tools for computing and post-processing parsimony- and likelihood-based phylogenetic placements and has worked well in practice. We believe that establishing a standard format for analyzing read placements at this early stage will lead to a more efficient development of powerful and portable post-analysis tools for the growing applications of phylogenetic placement. PMID:22383988

A format for phylogenetic placements.

PubMed

Matsen, Frederick A; Hoffman, Noah G; Gallagher, Aaron; Stamatakis, Alexandros

2012-01-01

We have developed a unified format for phylogenetic placements, that is, mappings of environmental sequence data (e.g., short reads) into a phylogenetic tree. We are motivated to do so by the growing number of tools for computing and post-processing phylogenetic placements, and the lack of an established standard for storing them. The format is lightweight, versatile, extensible, and is based on the JSON format, which can be parsed by most modern programming languages. Our format is already implemented in several tools for computing and post-processing parsimony- and likelihood-based phylogenetic placements and has worked well in practice. We believe that establishing a standard format for analyzing read placements at this early stage will lead to a more efficient development of powerful and portable post-analysis tools for the growing applications of phylogenetic placement.

Spatial Dependence and Heterogeneity in Bayesian Factor Analysis: A Cross-National Investigation of Schwartz Values

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stakhovych, Stanislav; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.; Wedel, Michel

2012-01-01

In this article, we present a Bayesian spatial factor analysis model. We extend previous work on confirmatory factor analysis by including geographically distributed latent variables and accounting for heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation. The simulation study shows excellent recovery of the model parameters and demonstrates the consequences…

A Preliminary Bayesian Analysis of Incomplete Longitudinal Data from a Small Sample: Methodological Advances in an International Comparative Study of Educational Inequality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hsieh, Chueh-An; Maier, Kimberly S.

2009-01-01

The capacity of Bayesian methods in estimating complex statistical models is undeniable. Bayesian data analysis is seen as having a range of advantages, such as an intuitive probabilistic interpretation of the parameters of interest, the efficient incorporation of prior information to empirical data analysis, model averaging and model selection.…

A guide to Bayesian model selection for ecologists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooten, Mevin B.; Hobbs, N.T.

2015-01-01

The steady upward trend in the use of model selection and Bayesian methods in ecological research has made it clear that both approaches to inference are important for modern analysis of models and data. However, in teaching Bayesian methods and in working with our research colleagues, we have noticed a general dissatisfaction with the available literature on Bayesian model selection and multimodel inference. Students and researchers new to Bayesian methods quickly find that the published advice on model selection is often preferential in its treatment of options for analysis, frequently advocating one particular method above others. The recent appearance of many articles and textbooks on Bayesian modeling has provided welcome background on relevant approaches to model selection in the Bayesian framework, but most of these are either very narrowly focused in scope or inaccessible to ecologists. Moreover, the methodological details of Bayesian model selection approaches are spread thinly throughout the literature, appearing in journals from many different fields. Our aim with this guide is to condense the large body of literature on Bayesian approaches to model selection and multimodel inference and present it specifically for quantitative ecologists as neutrally as possible. We also bring to light a few important and fundamental concepts relating directly to model selection that seem to have gone unnoticed in the ecological literature. Throughout, we provide only a minimal discussion of philosophy, preferring instead to examine the breadth of approaches as well as their practical advantages and disadvantages. This guide serves as a reference for ecologists using Bayesian methods, so that they can better understand their options and can make an informed choice that is best aligned with their goals for inference.

A phylogenetic transform enhances analysis of compositional microbiota data

PubMed Central

Silverman, Justin D; Washburne, Alex D; Mukherjee, Sayan; David, Lawrence A

2017-01-01

Surveys of microbial communities (microbiota), typically measured as relative abundance of species, have illustrated the importance of these communities in human health and disease. Yet, statistical artifacts commonly plague the analysis of relative abundance data. Here, we introduce the PhILR transform, which incorporates microbial evolutionary models with the isometric log-ratio transform to allow off-the-shelf statistical tools to be safely applied to microbiota surveys. We demonstrate that analyses of community-level structure can be applied to PhILR transformed data with performance on benchmarks rivaling or surpassing standard tools. Additionally, by decomposing distance in the PhILR transformed space, we identified neighboring clades that may have adapted to distinct human body sites. Decomposing variance revealed that covariation of bacterial clades within human body sites increases with phylogenetic relatedness. Together, these findings illustrate how the PhILR transform combines statistical and phylogenetic models to overcome compositional data challenges and enable evolutionary insights relevant to microbial communities. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.21887.001 PMID:28198697

Phylogenetic analysis of dissimilatory Fe(III)-reducing bacteria

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lonergan, D.J.; Jenter, H.L.; Coates, J.D.; Phillips, E.J.P.; Schmidt, T.M.; Lovley, D.R.

1996-01-01

Evolutionary relationships among strictly anaerobic dissimilatory Fe(III)- reducing bacteria obtained from a diversity of sedimentary environments were examined by phylogenetic analysis of 16S rRNA gene sequences. Members of the genera Geobacter, Desulfuromonas, Pelobacter, and Desulfuromusa formed a monophyletic group within the delta subdivision of the class Proteobacteria. On the basis of their common ancestry and the shared ability to reduce Fe(III) and/or S0, we propose that this group be considered a single family, Geobacteraceae. Bootstrap analysis, characteristic nucleotides, and higher- order secondary structures support the division of Geobacteraceae into two subgroups, designated the Geobacter and Desulfuromonas clusters. The genus Desulfuromusa and Pelobacter acidigallici make up a distinct branch with the Desulfuromonas cluster. Several members of the family Geobacteraceae, none of which reduce sulfate, were found to contain the target sequences of probes that have been previously used to define the distribution of sulfate-reducing bacteria and sulfate-reducing bacterium-like microorganisms. The recent isolations of Fe(III)-reducing microorganisms distributed throughout the domain Bacteria suggest that development of 16S rRNA probes that would specifically target all Fe(III) reducers may not be feasible. However, all of the evidence suggests that if a 16S rRNA sequence falls within the family Geobacteraceae, then the organism has the capacity for Fe(III) reduction. The suggestion, based on geological evidence, that Fe(III) reduction was the first globally significant process for oxidizing organic matter back to carbon dioxide is consistent with the finding that acetate-oxidizing Fe(III) reducers are phylogenetically diverse.

Systemic antibiotics in the treatment of aggressive periodontitis. A systematic review and a Bayesian Network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Rabelo, Cleverton Correa; Feres, Magda; Gonçalves, Cristiane; Figueiredo, Luciene C; Faveri, Marcelo; Tu, Yu-Kang; Chambrone, Leandro

2015-07-01

The aim of this study was to assess the effect of systemic antibiotic therapy on the treatment of aggressive periodontitis (AgP). This study was conducted and reported in accordance with the PRISMA statement. The MEDLINE, EMBASE and CENTRAL databases were searched up to June 2014 for randomized clinical trials comparing the treatment of subjects with AgP with either scaling and root planing (SRP) alone or associated with systemic antibiotics. Bayesian network meta-analysis was prepared using the Bayesian random-effects hierarchical models and the outcomes reported at 6-month post-treatment. Out of 350 papers identified, 14 studies were eligible. Greater gain in clinical attachment (CA) (mean difference [MD]: 1.08 mm; p < 0.0001) and reduction in probing depth (PD) (MD: 1.05 mm; p < 0.00001) were observed for SRP + metronidazole (Mtz), and for SRP + Mtz + amoxicillin (Amx) (MD: 0.45 mm, MD: 0.53 mm, respectively; p < 0.00001) than SRP alone/placebo. Bayesian network meta-analysis showed additional benefits in CA gain and PD reduction when SRP was associated with systemic antibiotics. SRP plus systemic antibiotics led to an additional clinical effect compared with SRP alone in the treatment of AgP. Of the antibiotic protocols available for inclusion into the Bayesian network meta-analysis, Mtz and Mtz/Amx provided to the most beneficial outcomes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimating size and scope economies in the Portuguese water sector using the Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis.

PubMed

Carvalho, Pedro; Marques, Rui Cunha

2016-02-15

This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the Portuguese water sector applying Bayesian and classical statistics to make inference in stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). This study proves the usefulness and advantages of the application of Bayesian statistics for making inference in SFA over traditional SFA which just uses classical statistics. The resulting Bayesian methods allow overcoming some problems that arise in the application of the traditional SFA, such as the bias in small samples and skewness of residuals. In the present case study of the water sector in Portugal, these Bayesian methods provide more plausible and acceptable results. Based on the results obtained we found that there are important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope in the Portuguese water sector, pointing out to the huge advantages in undertaking mergers by joining the retail and wholesale components and by joining the drinking water and wastewater services. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spectral Analysis of B Stars: An Application of Bayesian Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mugnes, J.-M.; Robert, C.

2012-12-01

To better understand the processes involved in stellar physics, it is necessary to obtain accurate stellar parameters (effective temperature, surface gravity, abundances…). Spectral analysis is a powerful tool for investigating stars, but it is also vital to reduce uncertainties at a decent computational cost. Here we present a spectral analysis method based on a combination of Bayesian statistics and grids of synthetic spectra obtained with TLUSTY. This method simultaneously constrains the stellar parameters by using all the lines accessible in observed spectra and thus greatly reduces uncertainties and improves the overall spectrum fitting. Preliminary results are shown using spectra from the Observatoire du Mont-Mégantic.

Let's jump in: A phylogenetic study of the great basin springfishes and poolfishes, Crenichthys and Empetrichthys (Cyprinodontiformes: Goodeidae)

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

North America’s Great Basin has long been of interest to biologists due to its high level of organismal endemicity throughout its endorheic watersheds. One example of such a group is the subfamily Empetricthyinae. In this paper, we analyzed the relationships of the Empetrichtyinae and assessed the validity of the subspecies designations given by Williams and Wilde within the group using concatenated phylogenetic tree estimation and species tree estimation. Samples from 19 populations were included covering the entire distribution of the three extant species of Empetricthyinae–Crenichthys nevadae, Crenichthys baileyi and Empetricthys latos. Three nuclear introns (S8 intron 4, S7 intron 1, and P0 intron 1) and one mitochondrial gene (Cytb) were sequenced for phylogenetic analysis. Using these sequences, we generated two separate hypotheses of the evolutionary relationships of Empetrichtyinae- one based on the mitochondrial data and one based on the nuclear data using Bayesian phylogenetics. Haplotype networks were also generated to look at the relationships of the populations within Empetrichthyinae. After comparing the two phylogenetic hypotheses, species trees were generated using *BEAST with the nuclear data to further test the validity of the subspecies within Empetrichthyinae. The mitochondrial analyses supported four lineages within C. baileyi and 2 within C. nevadae. The concatenated nuclear tree was more conserved, supporting one clade and an unresolved polytomy in both species. The species tree analysis supported the presence of two species within both C. baileyi and C. nevadae. Based on the results of these analyses, the subspecies designations of Williams and Wilde are not valid, rather a conservative approach suggests there are two species within C. nevadae and two species within C. baileyi. No structure was found for E. latos or the populations of Empetricthyinae. This study represents one of many demonstrating the invalidity of subspecies and their

Detection and phylogenetic analysis of bacteriophage WO in spiders (Araneae).

PubMed

Yan, Qian; Qiao, Huping; Gao, Jin; Yun, Yueli; Liu, Fengxiang; Peng, Yu

2015-11-01

Phage WO is a bacteriophage found in Wolbachia. Herein, we represent the first phylogenetic study of WOs that infect spiders (Araneae). Seven species of spiders (Araneus alternidens, Nephila clavata, Hylyphantes graminicola, Prosoponoides sinensis, Pholcus crypticolens, Coleosoma octomaculatum, and Nurscia albofasciata) from six families were infected by Wolbachia and WO, followed by comprehensive sequence analysis. Interestingly, WO could be only detected Wolbachia-infected spiders. The relative infection rates of those seven species of spiders were 75, 100, 88.9, 100, 62.5, 72.7, and 100 %, respectively. Our results indicated that both Wolbachia and WO were found in three different body parts of N. clavata, and WO could be passed to the next generation of H. graminicola by vertical transmission. There were three different sequences for WO infected in A. alternidens and two different WO sequences from C. octomaculatum. Only one sequence of WO was found for the other five species of spiders. The discovered sequence of WO ranged from 239 to 311 bp. Phylogenetic tree was generated using maximum likelihood (ML) based on the orf7 gene sequences. According to the phylogenetic tree, WOs in N. clavata and H. graminicola were clustered in the same group. WOs from A. alternidens (WAlt1) and C. octomaculatum (WOct2) were closely related to another clade, whereas WO in P. sinensis was classified as a sole cluster.

Introduction of Bayesian network in risk analysis of maritime accidents in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Sohanur

2017-12-01

Due to the unique geographic location, complex navigation environment and intense vessel traffic, a considerable number of maritime accidents occurred in Bangladesh which caused serious loss of life, property and environmental contamination. Based on the historical data of maritime accidents from 1981 to 2015, which has been collected from Department of Shipping (DOS) and Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA), this paper conducted a risk analysis of maritime accidents by applying Bayesian network. In order to conduct this study, a Bayesian network model has been developed to find out the relation among parameters and the probability of them which affect accidents based on the accident investigation report of Bangladesh. Furthermore, number of accidents in different categories has also been investigated in this paper. Finally, some viable recommendations have been proposed in order to ensure greater safety of inland vessels in Bangladesh.

Bayesian multimodel inference for dose-response studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Albers, P.H.

2007-01-01

Statistical inference in dose?response studies is model-based: The analyst posits a mathematical model of the relation between exposure and response, estimates parameters of the model, and reports conclusions conditional on the model. Such analyses rarely include any accounting for the uncertainties associated with model selection. The Bayesian inferential system provides a convenient framework for model selection and multimodel inference. In this paper we briefly describe the Bayesian paradigm and Bayesian multimodel inference. We then present a family of models for multinomial dose?response data and apply Bayesian multimodel inferential methods to the analysis of data on the reproductive success of American kestrels (Falco sparveriuss) exposed to various sublethal dietary concentrations of methylmercury.

BASiCS: Bayesian Analysis of Single-Cell Sequencing Data

PubMed Central

Vallejos, Catalina A.; Marioni, John C.; Richardson, Sylvia

2015-01-01

Single-cell mRNA sequencing can uncover novel cell-to-cell heterogeneity in gene expression levels in seemingly homogeneous populations of cells. However, these experiments are prone to high levels of unexplained technical noise, creating new challenges for identifying genes that show genuine heterogeneous expression within the population of cells under study. BASiCS (Bayesian Analysis of Single-Cell Sequencing data) is an integrated Bayesian hierarchical model where: (i) cell-specific normalisation constants are estimated as part of the model parameters, (ii) technical variability is quantified based on spike-in genes that are artificially introduced to each analysed cell’s lysate and (iii) the total variability of the expression counts is decomposed into technical and biological components. BASiCS also provides an intuitive detection criterion for highly (or lowly) variable genes within the population of cells under study. This is formalised by means of tail posterior probabilities associated to high (or low) biological cell-to-cell variance contributions, quantities that can be easily interpreted by users. We demonstrate our method using gene expression measurements from mouse Embryonic Stem Cells. Cross-validation and meaningful enrichment of gene ontology categories within genes classified as highly (or lowly) variable supports the efficacy of our approach. PMID:26107944

BASiCS: Bayesian Analysis of Single-Cell Sequencing Data.

PubMed

Vallejos, Catalina A; Marioni, John C; Richardson, Sylvia

2015-06-01

Single-cell mRNA sequencing can uncover novel cell-to-cell heterogeneity in gene expression levels in seemingly homogeneous populations of cells. However, these experiments are prone to high levels of unexplained technical noise, creating new challenges for identifying genes that show genuine heterogeneous expression within the population of cells under study. BASiCS (Bayesian Analysis of Single-Cell Sequencing data) is an integrated Bayesian hierarchical model where: (i) cell-specific normalisation constants are estimated as part of the model parameters, (ii) technical variability is quantified based on spike-in genes that are artificially introduced to each analysed cell's lysate and (iii) the total variability of the expression counts is decomposed into technical and biological components. BASiCS also provides an intuitive detection criterion for highly (or lowly) variable genes within the population of cells under study. This is formalised by means of tail posterior probabilities associated to high (or low) biological cell-to-cell variance contributions, quantities that can be easily interpreted by users. We demonstrate our method using gene expression measurements from mouse Embryonic Stem Cells. Cross-validation and meaningful enrichment of gene ontology categories within genes classified as highly (or lowly) variable supports the efficacy of our approach.

A gateway for phylogenetic analysis powered by grid computing featuring GARLI 2.0.

PubMed

Bazinet, Adam L; Zwickl, Derrick J; Cummings, Michael P

2014-09-01

We introduce molecularevolution.org, a publicly available gateway for high-throughput, maximum-likelihood phylogenetic analysis powered by grid computing. The gateway features a garli 2.0 web service that enables a user to quickly and easily submit thousands of maximum likelihood tree searches or bootstrap searches that are executed in parallel on distributed computing resources. The garli web service allows one to easily specify partitioned substitution models using a graphical interface, and it performs sophisticated post-processing of phylogenetic results. Although the garli web service has been used by the research community for over three years, here we formally announce the availability of the service, describe its capabilities, highlight new features and recent improvements, and provide details about how the grid system efficiently delivers high-quality phylogenetic results. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

Fuzzy Bayesian Network-Bow-Tie Analysis of Gas Leakage during Biomass Gasification

PubMed Central

Yan, Fang; Xu, Kaili; Yao, Xiwen; Li, Yang

2016-01-01

Biomass gasification technology has been rapidly developed recently. But fire and poisoning accidents caused by gas leakage restrict the development and promotion of biomass gasification. Therefore, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is necessary for biomass gasification system. Subsequently, Bayesian network-bow-tie (BN-bow-tie) analysis was proposed by mapping bow-tie analysis into Bayesian network (BN). Causes of gas leakage and the accidents triggered by gas leakage can be obtained by bow-tie analysis, and BN was used to confirm the critical nodes of accidents by introducing corresponding three importance measures. Meanwhile, certain occurrence probability of failure was needed in PSA. In view of the insufficient failure data of biomass gasification, the occurrence probability of failure which cannot be obtained from standard reliability data sources was confirmed by fuzzy methods based on expert judgment. An improved approach considered expert weighting to aggregate fuzzy numbers included triangular and trapezoidal numbers was proposed, and the occurrence probability of failure was obtained. Finally, safety measures were indicated based on the obtained critical nodes. The theoretical occurrence probabilities in one year of gas leakage and the accidents caused by it were reduced to 1/10.3 of the original values by these safety measures. PMID:27463975

Defining the phylogenetic position of Amanita species from Andean Colombia.

PubMed

Vargas, Natalia; Pardo-de La Hoz, Carlos José; Danies, Giovanna; Franco-Molano, Ana Esperanza; Jiménez, Pedro; Restrepo, Silvia; Grajales, Alejandro

2017-01-01

Amanita is a worldwide-distributed fungal genus, with approximately 600 known species. Most species within the genus are ectomycorrhizal (ECM), with some saprotrophic representatives. In this study, we constructed the first comprehensive phylogeny including ECM species from Colombia collected in native Quercus humboldtii forests and in introduced Pinus patula plantations. We included 8 species (A. brunneolocularis, A. colombiana, A. flavoconia, A. fuligineodisca, A. muscaria, A. rubescens, A. sororcula, and A. xylinivolva) out of 16 species reported for the country, two new reports: A. citrina and A. virosa, and a new variety A. brunneolocularis var. pallida. Morphological taxonomic keys together with a phylogenetic approach using three nuclear gene regions: partial nuc rDNA 28S nuc rDNA internal transcribed spacers ITS1 and ITS2 and partial translation elongation factor 1-α gene (TEF1), were used to classify the specimens. Several highly supported clades were obtained from the phylogenetic hypotheses obtained by Bayesian inference and maximum likelihood approaches, allowing us to position the Colombian collections in a coherent infrageneric level and to contribute to the knowledge of local Amanita diversity.

Phylogenetic Analysis of Seven WRKY Genes across the Palm Subtribe Attaleinae (Arecaceae) Identifies Syagrus as Sister Group of the Coconut

PubMed Central

Meerow, Alan W.; Noblick, Larry; Borrone, James W.; Couvreur, Thomas L. P.; Mauro-Herrera, Margarita; Hahn, William J.; Kuhn, David N.; Nakamura, Kyoko; Oleas, Nora H.; Schnell, Raymond J.

2009-01-01

Background The Cocoseae is one of 13 tribes of Arecaceae subfam. Arecoideae, and contains a number of palms with significant economic importance, including the monotypic and pantropical Cocos nucifera L., the coconut, the origins of which have been one of the “abominable mysteries” of palm systematics for decades. Previous studies with predominantly plastid genes weakly supported American ancestry for the coconut but ambiguous sister relationships. In this paper, we use multiple single copy nuclear loci to address the phylogeny of the Cocoseae subtribe Attaleinae, and resolve the closest extant relative of the coconut. Methodology/Principal Findings We present the results of combined analysis of DNA sequences of seven WRKY transcription factor loci across 72 samples of Arecaceae tribe Cocoseae subtribe Attaleinae, representing all genera classified within the subtribe, and three outgroup taxa with maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian approaches, producing highly congruent and well-resolved trees that robustly identify the genus Syagrus as sister to Cocos and resolve novel and well-supported relationships among the other genera of the Attaleinae. We also address incongruence among the gene trees with gene tree reconciliation analysis, and assign estimated ages to the nodes of our tree. Conclusions/Significance This study represents the as yet most extensive phylogenetic analyses of Cocoseae subtribe Attaleinae. We present a well-resolved and supported phylogeny of the subtribe that robustly indicates a sister relationship between Cocos and Syagrus. This is not only of biogeographic interest, but will also open fruitful avenues of inquiry regarding evolution of functional genes useful for crop improvement. Establishment of two major clades of American Attaleinae occurred in the Oligocene (ca. 37 MYBP) in Eastern Brazil. The divergence of Cocos from Syagrus is estimated at 35 MYBP. The biogeographic and morphological congruence that we see for

Phylogenetic analysis of Saccharum s.l. (Poaceae; Andropogoneae), with emphasis on the circumscription of the South American species.

PubMed

Welker, Cassiano A D; Souza-Chies, Tatiana T; Longhi-Wagner, Hilda M; Peichoto, Myriam Carolina; McKain, Michael R; Kellogg, Elizabeth A

2015-02-01

Polyploidy and reticulate evolution are often a complication for discovering phylogenetic relationships between genera and species. Despite the huge economic importance of sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum-Poaceae, Andropogoneae), the limits of the genus Saccharum and its species are complex and largely unresolved, involving both polyploidy and reticulate evolution. This study aimed to assess the phylogenetic relationships of Saccharum s.l., including Erianthus and Tripidium, as well as investigate the taxonomic circumscription of the South American species of the genus. Molecular cloning and sequencing of five regions of four low-copy nuclear loci were performed, including Aberrant panicle organization1 (apo1), Dwarf8 (d8), two exons of Erect panicle2 (ep2-ex7 and ep2-ex8), and Retarded palea1 (rep1). Concatenated trees were reconstructed using Maximum Parsimony, Maximum Likelihood, and Bayesian Inference analyses. The allopolyploid origin of Saccharum was demonstrated using evidence from nuclear genes. The samples of Saccharum s.l. grouped in two distinct clades, with S. arundinaceum and S. ravennae (= Tripidium, or Erianthus sect. Ripidium) apart from all other species analyzed of the genus. Saccharum angustifolium, S. asperum, and S. villosum correspond to distinct clades (different species). The plants with intermediate morphology between S. angustifolium and S. villosum presented a pattern of paralogues consistent with a hybrid origin. Saccharum s.l. is polyphyletic and Tripidium should be recognized as a distinct genus. However, no strong evidence was found to support the segregation of Erianthus. The taxonomic circumscription of the South American species of the genus was resolved and the occurrence of natural hybrids was documented. Better understanding of the phylogenetic relationships of Saccharum and relatives may be useful for sugarcane breeders to identify potential taxa for interspecific and intergeneric crosses in the genetic improvement of sugarcane

Bayesian analysis of volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Chih-Hsiang

1990-10-01

The simple Poisson model generally gives a good fit to many volcanoes for volcanic eruption forecasting. Nonetheless, empirical evidence suggests that volcanic activity in successive equal time-periods tends to be more variable than a simple Poisson with constant eruptive rate. An alternative model is therefore examined in which eruptive rate(λ) for a given volcano or cluster(s) of volcanoes is described by a gamma distribution (prior) rather than treated as a constant value as in the assumptions of a simple Poisson model. Bayesian analysis is performed to link two distributions together to give the aggregate behavior of the volcanic activity. When the Poisson process is expanded to accomodate a gamma mixing distribution on λ, a consequence of this mixed (or compound) Poisson model is that the frequency distribution of eruptions in any given time-period of equal length follows the negative binomial distribution (NBD). Applications of the proposed model and comparisons between the generalized model and simple Poisson model are discussed based on the historical eruptive count data of volcanoes Mauna Loa (Hawaii) and Etna (Italy). Several relevant facts lead to the conclusion that the generalized model is preferable for practical use both in space and time.

Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

2017-08-01

Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

SUNPLIN: simulation with uncertainty for phylogenetic investigations.

PubMed

Martins, Wellington S; Carmo, Welton C; Longo, Humberto J; Rosa, Thierson C; Rangel, Thiago F

2013-11-15

Phylogenetic comparative analyses usually rely on a single consensus phylogenetic tree in order to study evolutionary processes. However, most phylogenetic trees are incomplete with regard to species sampling, which may critically compromise analyses. Some approaches have been proposed to integrate non-molecular phylogenetic information into incomplete molecular phylogenies. An expanded tree approach consists of adding missing species to random locations within their clade. The information contained in the topology of the resulting expanded trees can be captured by the pairwise phylogenetic distance between species and stored in a matrix for further statistical analysis. Thus, the random expansion and processing of multiple phylogenetic trees can be used to estimate the phylogenetic uncertainty through a simulation procedure. Because of the computational burden required, unless this procedure is efficiently implemented, the analyses are of limited applicability. In this paper, we present efficient algorithms and implementations for randomly expanding and processing phylogenetic trees so that simulations involved in comparative phylogenetic analysis with uncertainty can be conducted in a reasonable time. We propose algorithms for both randomly expanding trees and calculating distance matrices. We made available the source code, which was written in the C++ language. The code may be used as a standalone program or as a shared object in the R system. The software can also be used as a web service through the link: http://purl.oclc.org/NET/sunplin/. We compare our implementations to similar solutions and show that significant performance gains can be obtained. Our results open up the possibility of accounting for phylogenetic uncertainty in evolutionary and ecological analyses of large datasets.

Application of Bayesian Approach in Cancer Clinical Trial

PubMed Central

Bhattacharjee, Atanu

2014-01-01

The application of Bayesian approach in clinical trials becomes more useful over classical method. It is beneficial from design to analysis phase. The straight forward statement is possible to obtain through Bayesian about the drug treatment effect. Complex computational problems are simple to handle with Bayesian techniques. The technique is only feasible to performing presence of prior information of the data. The inference is possible to establish through posterior estimates. However, some limitations are present in this method. The objective of this work was to explore the several merits and demerits of Bayesian approach in cancer research. The review of the technique will be helpful for the clinical researcher involved in the oncology to explore the limitation and power of Bayesian techniques. PMID:29147387

Bayesian meta-analysis of Cronbach's coefficient alpha to evaluate informative hypotheses.

PubMed

Okada, Kensuke

2015-12-01

This paper proposes a new method to evaluate informative hypotheses for meta-analysis of Cronbach's coefficient alpha using a Bayesian approach. The coefficient alpha is one of the most widely used reliability indices. In meta-analyses of reliability, researchers typically form specific informative hypotheses beforehand, such as 'alpha of this test is greater than 0.8' or 'alpha of one form of a test is greater than the others.' The proposed method enables direct evaluation of these informative hypotheses. To this end, a Bayes factor is calculated to evaluate the informative hypothesis against its complement. It allows researchers to summarize the evidence provided by previous studies in favor of their informative hypothesis. The proposed approach can be seen as a natural extension of the Bayesian meta-analysis of coefficient alpha recently proposed in this journal (Brannick and Zhang, 2013). The proposed method is illustrated through two meta-analyses of real data that evaluate different kinds of informative hypotheses on superpopulation: one is that alpha of a particular test is above the criterion value, and the other is that alphas among different test versions have ordered relationships. Informative hypotheses are supported from the data in both cases, suggesting that the proposed approach is promising for application. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A bayesian approach to classification criteria for spectacled eiders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, B.L.; Wade, P.R.; Stehn, R.A.; Cochrane, J.F.

1996-01-01

To facilitate decisions to classify species according to risk of extinction, we used Bayesian methods to analyze trend data for the Spectacled Eider, an arctic sea duck. Trend data from three independent surveys of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta were analyzed individually and in combination to yield posterior distributions for population growth rates. We used classification criteria developed by the recovery team for Spectacled Eiders that seek to equalize errors of under- or overprotecting the species. We conducted both a Bayesian decision analysis and a frequentist (classical statistical inference) decision analysis. Bayesian decision analyses are computationally easier, yield basically the same results, and yield results that are easier to explain to nonscientists. With the exception of the aerial survey analysis of the 10 most recent years, both Bayesian and frequentist methods indicated that an endangered classification is warranted. The discrepancy between surveys warrants further research. Although the trend data are abundance indices, we used a preliminary estimate of absolute abundance to demonstrate how to calculate extinction distributions using the joint probability distributions for population growth rate and variance in growth rate generated by the Bayesian analysis. Recent apparent increases in abundance highlight the need for models that apply to declining and then recovering species.

BEAGLE: an application programming interface and high-performance computing library for statistical phylogenetics.

PubMed

Ayres, Daniel L; Darling, Aaron; Zwickl, Derrick J; Beerli, Peter; Holder, Mark T; Lewis, Paul O; Huelsenbeck, John P; Ronquist, Fredrik; Swofford, David L; Cummings, Michael P; Rambaut, Andrew; Suchard, Marc A

2012-01-01

Phylogenetic inference is fundamental to our understanding of most aspects of the origin and evolution of life, and in recent years, there has been a concentration of interest in statistical approaches such as Bayesian inference and maximum likelihood estimation. Yet, for large data sets and realistic or interesting models of evolution, these approaches remain computationally demanding. High-throughput sequencing can yield data for thousands of taxa, but scaling to such problems using serial computing often necessitates the use of nonstatistical or approximate approaches. The recent emergence of graphics processing units (GPUs) provides an opportunity to leverage their excellent floating-point computational performance to accelerate statistical phylogenetic inference. A specialized library for phylogenetic calculation would allow existing software packages to make more effective use of available computer hardware, including GPUs. Adoption of a common library would also make it easier for other emerging computing architectures, such as field programmable gate arrays, to be used in the future. We present BEAGLE, an application programming interface (API) and library for high-performance statistical phylogenetic inference. The API provides a uniform interface for performing phylogenetic likelihood calculations on a variety of compute hardware platforms. The library includes a set of efficient implementations and can currently exploit hardware including GPUs using NVIDIA CUDA, central processing units (CPUs) with Streaming SIMD Extensions and related processor supplementary instruction sets, and multicore CPUs via OpenMP. To demonstrate the advantages of a common API, we have incorporated the library into several popular phylogenetic software packages. The BEAGLE library is free open source software licensed under the Lesser GPL and available from http://beagle-lib.googlecode.com. An example client program is available as public domain software.

Competing risk models in reliability systems, a weibull distribution model with bayesian analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iskandar, Ismed; Satria Gondokaryono, Yudi

2016-02-01

In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range

Detection and Phylogenetic Analysis of Group 1 Coronaviruses in South American Bats

PubMed Central

Foster, Jerome E.; Zhu, Hua Chen; Zhang, Jin Xia; Smith, Gavin J.D.; Thompson, Nadin; Auguste, Albert J.; Ramkissoon, Vernie; Adesiyun, Abiodun A.; Guan, Yi

2008-01-01

Bat coronaviruses (Bt-CoVs) are thought to be the precursors of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus. We detected Bt-CoVs in 2 bat species from Trinidad. Phylogenetic analysis of the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase gene and helicase confirmed them as group 1 coronaviruses. PMID:19046513

FPGA Acceleration of the phylogenetic likelihood function for Bayesian MCMC inference methods.

PubMed

Zierke, Stephanie; Bakos, Jason D

2010-04-12

Likelihood (ML)-based phylogenetic inference has become a popular method for estimating the evolutionary relationships among species based on genomic sequence data. This method is used in applications such as RAxML, GARLI, MrBayes, PAML, and PAUP. The Phylogenetic Likelihood Function (PLF) is an important kernel computation for this method. The PLF consists of a loop with no conditional behavior or dependencies between iterations. As such it contains a high potential for exploiting parallelism using micro-architectural techniques. In this paper, we describe a technique for mapping the PLF and supporting logic onto a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA)-based co-processor. By leveraging the FPGA's on-chip DSP modules and the high-bandwidth local memory attached to the FPGA, the resultant co-processor can accelerate ML-based methods and outperform state-of-the-art multi-core processors. We use the MrBayes 3 tool as a framework for designing our co-processor. For large datasets, we estimate that our accelerated MrBayes, if run on a current-generation FPGA, achieves a 10x speedup relative to software running on a state-of-the-art server-class microprocessor. The FPGA-based implementation achieves its performance by deeply pipelining the likelihood computations, performing multiple floating-point operations in parallel, and through a natural log approximation that is chosen specifically to leverage a deeply pipelined custom architecture. Heterogeneous computing, which combines general-purpose processors with special-purpose co-processors such as FPGAs and GPUs, is a promising approach for high-performance phylogeny inference as shown by the growing body of literature in this field. FPGAs in particular are well-suited for this task because of their low power consumption as compared to many-core processors and Graphics Processor Units (GPUs).

More on the Best Evolutionary Rate for Phylogenetic Analysis

PubMed Central

Massingham, Tim; Goldman, Nick

2017-01-01

-noise analysis, and Fisher information are good predictors of phylogenetic informativeness, but they require specification of at least part of a model tree. Likelihood quartet mapping also shows very good performance but only requires sequence alignments and is thus applicable without making assumptions about the phylogeny. Despite them being the most commonly used methods for experimental design, geometric quartet mapping and the integration of phylogenetic informativeness curves perform rather poorly in our comparison. Instead of derived predictors of phylogenetic informativeness, we suggest that the number of sites in a gene that evolve at near-optimal rates (as inferred here) could be used directly to prioritize genes for phylogenetic inference. In combination with measures of model fit, especially with respect to compositional biases and among-site and among-lineage rate variation, such an approach has the potential to greatly improve marker choice and should be tested on empirical data. PMID:28595363

A Two-Step Bayesian Approach for Propensity Score Analysis: Simulations and Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

2012-01-01

A two-step Bayesian propensity score approach is introduced that incorporates prior information in the propensity score equation and outcome equation without the problems associated with simultaneous Bayesian propensity score approaches. The corresponding variance estimators are also provided. The two-step Bayesian propensity score is provided for…

Species trees for the tree swallows (Genus Tachycineta): an alternative phylogenetic hypothesis to the mitochondrial gene tree.

PubMed

Dor, Roi; Carling, Matthew D; Lovette, Irby J; Sheldon, Frederick H; Winkler, David W

2012-10-01

The New World swallow genus Tachycineta comprises nine species that collectively have a wide geographic distribution and remarkable variation both within- and among-species in ecologically important traits. Existing phylogenetic hypotheses for Tachycineta are based on mitochondrial DNA sequences, thus they provide estimates of a single gene tree. In this study we sequenced multiple individuals from each species at 16 nuclear intron loci. We used gene concatenated approaches (Bayesian and maximum likelihood) as well as coalescent-based species tree inference to reconstruct phylogenetic relationships of the genus. We examined the concordance and conflict between the nuclear and mitochondrial trees and between concatenated and coalescent-based inferences. Our results provide an alternative phylogenetic hypothesis to the existing mitochondrial DNA estimate of phylogeny. This new hypothesis provides a more accurate framework in which to explore trait evolution and examine the evolution of the mitochondrial genome in this group. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Robust Bayesian Analysis of Heavy-tailed Stochastic Volatility Models using Scale Mixtures of Normal Distributions

PubMed Central

Abanto-Valle, C. A.; Bandyopadhyay, D.; Lachos, V. H.; Enriquez, I.

2009-01-01

A Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility (SV) models using the class of symmetric scale mixtures of normal (SMN) distributions is considered. In the face of non-normality, this provides an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of the normal distribution. Specific distributions examined include the normal, student-t, slash and the variance gamma distributions. Using a Bayesian paradigm, an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is introduced for parameter estimation. Moreover, the mixing parameters obtained as a by-product of the scale mixture representation can be used to identify outliers. The methods developed are applied to analyze daily stock returns data on S&P500 index. Bayesian model selection criteria as well as out-of- sample forecasting results reveal that the SV models based on heavy-tailed SMN distributions provide significant improvement in model fit as well as prediction to the S&P500 index data over the usual normal model. PMID:20730043

Multilocus variable-number tandem repeat analysis for molecular typing and phylogenetic analysis of Shigella flexneri

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Shigella flexneri is one of the causative agents of shigellosis, a major cause of childhood mortality in developing countries. Multilocus variable-number tandem repeat (VNTR) analysis (MLVA) is a prominent subtyping method to resolve closely related bacterial isolates for investigation of disease outbreaks and provide information for establishing phylogenetic patterns among isolates. The present study aimed to develop an MLVA method for S. flexneri and the VNTR loci identified were tested on 242 S. flexneri isolates to evaluate their variability in various serotypes. The isolates were also analyzed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) to compare the discriminatory power and to evaluate the usefulness of MLVA as a tool for phylogenetic analysis of S. flexneri. Results Thirty-six VNTR loci were identified by exploring the repeat sequence loci in genomic sequences of Shigella species and by testing the loci on nine isolates of different subserotypes. The VNTR loci in different serotype groups differed greatly in their variability. The discriminatory power of an MLVA assay based on four most variable VNTR loci was higher, though not significantly, than PFGE for the total isolates, a panel of 2a isolates, which were relatively diverse, and a panel of 4a/Y isolates, which were closely-related. Phylogenetic groupings based on PFGE patterns and MLVA profiles were considerably concordant. The genetic relationships among the isolates were correlated with serotypes. The phylogenetic trees constructed using PFGE patterns and MLVA profiles presented two distinct clusters for the isolates of serotype 3 and one distinct cluster for each of the serotype groups, 1a/1b/NT, 2a/2b/X/NT, 4a/Y, and 6. Isolates that had different serotypes but had closer genetic relatedness than those with the same serotype were observed between serotype Y and subserotype 4a, serotype X and subserotype 2b, subserotype 1a and 1b, and subserotype 3a and 3b. Conclusions The 36 VNTR loci

Phylogenetic Systematics, Biogeography, and Ecology of the Electric Fish Genus Brachyhypopomus (Ostariophysi: Gymnotiformes)

PubMed Central

de Santana, Carlos David; Waddell, Joseph C.; Lovejoy, Nathan R.

2016-01-01

A species-level phylogenetic reconstruction of the Neotropical bluntnose knifefish genus Brachyhypopomus (Gymnotiformes, Hypopomidae) is presented, based on 60 morphological characters, approximately 1100 base pairs of the mitochondrial cytb gene, and approximately 1000 base pairs of the nuclear rag2 gene. The phylogeny includes 28 species of Brachyhypopomus and nine outgroup species from nine other gymnotiform genera, including seven in the superfamily Rhamphichthyoidea (Hypopomidae and Rhamphichthyidae). Parsimony and Bayesian total evidence phylogenetic analyses confirm the monophyly of the genus, and identify nine robust species groups. Homoplastic osteological characters associated with diminutive body size and occurrence in small stream habitats, including loss of squamation and simplifications of the skeleton, appear to mislead a phylogenetic analysis based on morphological characters alone–resulting in the incorrect placing of Microsternarchus + Racenisia in a position deeply nested within Brachyhypopomus. Consideration of geographical distribution in light of the total evidence phylogeny indicates an origin for Brachyhypopomus in Greater Amazonia (the superbasin comprising the Amazon, Orinoco and major Guiana drainages), with subsequent dispersal and vicariance in peripheral basins, including the La Plata, the São Francisco, and trans-Andean basins of northwest South America and Central America. The ancestral habitat of Brachyhypopomus likely resembled the normoxic, low-conductivity terra firme stream system occupied by many extant species, and the genus has subsequently occupied a wide range of terra firme and floodplain habitats including low- and high-conductivity systems, and normoxic and hypoxic systems. Adaptations for impedance matching to high conductivity, and/or for air breathing in hypoxic systems have attended these habitat transitions. Several species of Brachyhypopomus are eurytopic with respect to habitat occupancy and these generally

Bayesian Computation for Log-Gaussian Cox Processes: A Comparative Analysis of Methods

PubMed Central

Teng, Ming; Nathoo, Farouk S.; Johnson, Timothy D.

2017-01-01

The Log-Gaussian Cox Process is a commonly used model for the analysis of spatial point pattern data. Fitting this model is difficult because of its doubly-stochastic property, i.e., it is an hierarchical combination of a Poisson process at the first level and a Gaussian Process at the second level. Various methods have been proposed to estimate such a process, including traditional likelihood-based approaches as well as Bayesian methods. We focus here on Bayesian methods and several approaches that have been considered for model fitting within this framework, including Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, the Integrated nested Laplace approximation, and Variational Bayes. We consider these approaches and make comparisons with respect to statistical and computational efficiency. These comparisons are made through several simulation studies as well as through two applications, the first examining ecological data and the second involving neuroimaging data. PMID:29200537

Unrealistic phylogenetic trees may improve phylogenetic footprinting.

PubMed

Nettling, Martin; Treutler, Hendrik; Cerquides, Jesus; Grosse, Ivo

2017-06-01

The computational investigation of DNA binding motifs from binding sites is one of the classic tasks in bioinformatics and a prerequisite for understanding gene regulation as a whole. Due to the development of sequencing technologies and the increasing number of available genomes, approaches based on phylogenetic footprinting become increasingly attractive. Phylogenetic footprinting requires phylogenetic trees with attached substitution probabilities for quantifying the evolution of binding sites, but these trees and substitution probabilities are typically not known and cannot be estimated easily. Here, we investigate the influence of phylogenetic trees with different substitution probabilities on the classification performance of phylogenetic footprinting using synthetic and real data. For synthetic data we find that the classification performance is highest when the substitution probability used for phylogenetic footprinting is similar to that used for data generation. For real data, however, we typically find that the classification performance of phylogenetic footprinting surprisingly increases with increasing substitution probabilities and is often highest for unrealistically high substitution probabilities close to one. This finding suggests that choosing realistic model assumptions might not always yield optimal predictions in general and that choosing unrealistically high substitution probabilities close to one might actually improve the classification performance of phylogenetic footprinting. The proposed PF is implemented in JAVA and can be downloaded from https://github.com/mgledi/PhyFoo. : martin.nettling@informatik.uni-halle.de. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

SUNPLIN: Simulation with Uncertainty for Phylogenetic Investigations

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Phylogenetic comparative analyses usually rely on a single consensus phylogenetic tree in order to study evolutionary processes. However, most phylogenetic trees are incomplete with regard to species sampling, which may critically compromise analyses. Some approaches have been proposed to integrate non-molecular phylogenetic information into incomplete molecular phylogenies. An expanded tree approach consists of adding missing species to random locations within their clade. The information contained in the topology of the resulting expanded trees can be captured by the pairwise phylogenetic distance between species and stored in a matrix for further statistical analysis. Thus, the random expansion and processing of multiple phylogenetic trees can be used to estimate the phylogenetic uncertainty through a simulation procedure. Because of the computational burden required, unless this procedure is efficiently implemented, the analyses are of limited applicability. Results In this paper, we present efficient algorithms and implementations for randomly expanding and processing phylogenetic trees so that simulations involved in comparative phylogenetic analysis with uncertainty can be conducted in a reasonable time. We propose algorithms for both randomly expanding trees and calculating distance matrices. We made available the source code, which was written in the C++ language. The code may be used as a standalone program or as a shared object in the R system. The software can also be used as a web service through the link: http://purl.oclc.org/NET/sunplin/. Conclusion We compare our implementations to similar solutions and show that significant performance gains can be obtained. Our results open up the possibility of accounting for phylogenetic uncertainty in evolutionary and ecological analyses of large datasets. PMID:24229408

Hyainailourine and teratodontine cranial material from the late Eocene of Egypt and the application of parsimony and Bayesian methods to the phylogeny and biogeography of Hyaenodonta (Placentalia, Mammalia).

PubMed

Borths, Matthew R; Holroyd, Patricia A; Seiffert, Erik R

2016-01-01

Hyaenodonta is a diverse, extinct group of carnivorous mammals that included weasel- to rhinoceros-sized species. The oldest-known hyaenodont fossils are from the middle Paleocene of North Africa and the antiquity of the group in Afro-Arabia led to the hypothesis that it originated there and dispersed to Asia, Europe, and North America. Here we describe two new hyaenodont species based on the oldest hyaenodont cranial specimens known from Afro-Arabia. The material was collected from the latest Eocene Locality 41 (L-41, ∼34 Ma) in the Fayum Depression, Egypt. Akhnatenavus nefertiticyon sp. nov. has specialized, hypercarnivorous molars and an elongate cranial vault. In A. nefertiticyon the tallest, piercing cusp on M 1 -M 2 is the paracone. Brychotherium ephalmos gen. et sp. nov. has more generalized molars that retain the metacone and complex talonids. In B. ephalmos the tallest, piercing cusp on M 1 -M 2 is the metacone. We incorporate this new material into a series of phylogenetic analyses using a character-taxon matrix that includes novel dental, cranial, and postcranial characters, and samples extensively from the global record of the group. The phylogenetic analysis includes the first application of Bayesian methods to hyaenodont relationships. B. ephalmos is consistently placed within Teratodontinae, an Afro-Arabian clade with several generalist and hypercarnivorous forms, and Akhnatenavus is consistently recovered in Hyainailourinae as part of an Afro-Arabian radiation. The phylogenetic results suggest that hypercarnivory evolved independently three times within Hyaenodonta: in Teratodontinae, in Hyainailourinae, and in Hyaenodontinae. Teratodontines are consistently placed in a close relationship with Hyainailouridae (Hyainailourinae + Apterodontinae) to the exclusion of "proviverrines," hyaenodontines, and several North American clades, and we propose that the superfamily Hyainailouroidea be used to describe this relationship. Using the topologies

Framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis to investigate the perturbed metabolic network

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Genome-scale metabolic network models have contributed to elucidating biological phenomena, and predicting gene targets to engineer for biotechnological applications. With their increasing importance, their precise network characterization has also been crucial for better understanding of the cellular physiology. Results We herein introduce a framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis (FMB) to investigate organism’s metabolism under perturbation. FMB reveals direction of influences among metabolic modules, in which reactions with similar or positively correlated flux variation patterns are clustered, in response to specific perturbation using metabolic flux data. With metabolic flux data calculated by constraints-based flux analysis under both control and perturbation conditions, FMB, in essence, reveals the effects of specific perturbations on the biological system through network modularization and Bayesian network analysis at metabolic modular level. As a demonstration, this framework was applied to the genetically perturbed Escherichia coli metabolism, which is a lpdA gene knockout mutant, using its genome-scale metabolic network model. Conclusions After all, it provides alternative scenarios of metabolic flux distributions in response to the perturbation, which are complementary to the data obtained from conventionally available genome-wide high-throughput techniques or metabolic flux analysis. PMID:22784571

Framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis to investigate the perturbed metabolic network.

PubMed

Kim, Hyun Uk; Kim, Tae Yong; Lee, Sang Yup

2011-01-01

Genome-scale metabolic network models have contributed to elucidating biological phenomena, and predicting gene targets to engineer for biotechnological applications. With their increasing importance, their precise network characterization has also been crucial for better understanding of the cellular physiology. We herein introduce a framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis (FMB) to investigate organism's metabolism under perturbation. FMB reveals direction of influences among metabolic modules, in which reactions with similar or positively correlated flux variation patterns are clustered, in response to specific perturbation using metabolic flux data. With metabolic flux data calculated by constraints-based flux analysis under both control and perturbation conditions, FMB, in essence, reveals the effects of specific perturbations on the biological system through network modularization and Bayesian network analysis at metabolic modular level. As a demonstration, this framework was applied to the genetically perturbed Escherichia coli metabolism, which is a lpdA gene knockout mutant, using its genome-scale metabolic network model. After all, it provides alternative scenarios of metabolic flux distributions in response to the perturbation, which are complementary to the data obtained from conventionally available genome-wide high-throughput techniques or metabolic flux analysis.

Penicillium simile sp. nov. revealed by morphological and phylogenetic analysis.

PubMed

Davolos, Domenico; Pietrangeli, Biancamaria; Persiani, Anna Maria; Maggi, Oriana

2012-02-01

The morphology of three phenetically identical Penicillium isolates, collected from the bioaerosol in a restoration laboratory in Italy, displayed macro- and microscopic characteristics that were similar though not completely ascribable to Penicillium raistrickii. For this reason, a phylogenetic approach based on DNA sequencing analysis was performed to establish both the taxonomic status and the evolutionary relationships of these three peculiar isolates in relation to previously described species of the genus Penicillium. We used four nuclear loci (both rRNA and protein coding genes) that have previously proved useful for the molecular investigation of taxa belonging to the genus Penicillium at various evolutionary levels. The internal transcribed spacer region (ITS1-5.8S-ITS2), domains D1 and D2 of the 28S rDNA, a region of the tubulin beta chain gene (benA) and part of the calmodulin gene (cmd) were amplified by PCR and sequenced. Analysis of the rRNA genes and of the benA and cmd sequence data indicates the presence of three isogenic isolates belonging to a genetically distinct species of the genus Penicillium, here described and named Penicillium simile sp. nov. (ATCC MYA-4591(T)  = CBS 129191(T)). This novel species is phylogenetically different from P. raistrickii and other related species of the genus Penicillium (e.g. Penicillium scabrosum), from which it can be distinguished on the basis of morphological trait analysis.

Phylogenetic Analysis of Aedes aegypti Based on Mitochondrial ND4 Gene Sequences in Almadinah, Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Ali, Khalil H Al; El-Badry, Ayman A; Ali, Mouhanad Al; El-Sayed, Wael S M; El-Beshbishy, Hesham A

2016-06-01

Aedes aegypti is the main vector of the yellow fever and dengue virus. This mosquito has become the major indirect cause of morbidity and mortality of the human worldwide. Dengue virus activity has been reported recently in the western areas of Saudi Arabia. There is no vaccine for dengue virus until now, and the control of the disease depends on the control of the vector. The present study has aimed to perform phylogenetic analysis of Aedes aegypti based on mitochondrial NADH dehydrogenase subunit 4 ( ND4 ) gene at Almadinah, Saudi Arabia in order to get further insight into the epidemiology and transmission of this vector. Mitochondrial ND4 gene was sequenced in the eight isolated Aedes aegypti mosquitoes from Almadinah, Saudi Arabia, sequences were aligned, and phylogenetic analysis were performed and compared with 54 sequences of Aedes reported in the previous studies from Mexico, Thailand, Brazil, and Africa. Our results suggest that increased gene flow among Aedes aegypti populations occurs between Africa and Saudi Arabia. Phylogenetic relationship analysis showed two genetically distinct Aedes aegypti in Saudi Arabia derived from dual African ancestor.

Bayesian Analysis of Silica Exposure and Lung Cancer Using Human and Animal Studies.

PubMed

Bartell, Scott M; Hamra, Ghassan Badri; Steenland, Kyle

2017-03-01

Bayesian methods can be used to incorporate external information into epidemiologic exposure-response analyses of silica and lung cancer. We used data from a pooled mortality analysis of silica and lung cancer (n = 65,980), using untransformed and log-transformed cumulative exposure. Animal data came from chronic silica inhalation studies using rats. We conducted Bayesian analyses with informative priors based on the animal data and different cross-species extrapolation factors. We also conducted analyses with exposure measurement error corrections in the absence of a gold standard, assuming Berkson-type error that increased with increasing exposure. The pooled animal data exposure-response coefficient was markedly higher (log exposure) or lower (untransformed exposure) than the coefficient for the pooled human data. With 10-fold uncertainty, the animal prior had little effect on results for pooled analyses and only modest effects in some individual studies. One-fold uncertainty produced markedly different results for both pooled and individual studies. Measurement error correction had little effect in pooled analyses using log exposure. Using untransformed exposure, measurement error correction caused a 5% decrease in the exposure-response coefficient for the pooled analysis and marked changes in some individual studies. The animal prior had more impact for smaller human studies and for one-fold versus three- or 10-fold uncertainty. Adjustment for Berkson error using Bayesian methods had little effect on the exposure-response coefficient when exposure was log transformed or when the sample size was large. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B160.

Phylogenetic analysis of several Thermus strains from Rehai of Tengchong, Yunnan, China.

PubMed

Lin, Lianbing; Zhang, Jie; Wei, Yunlin; Chen, Chaoyin; Peng, Qian

2005-10-01

Several Thermus strains were isolated from 10 hot springs of the Rehai geothermal area in Tengchong, Yunnan province. The diversity of Thermus strains was examined by sequencing the 16S rRNA genes and comparing their sequences. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the 16S rDNA sequences from the Rehai geothermal isolates form four branches in the phylogenetic tree and had greater than 95.9% similarity in the phylogroup. Secondary structure comparison also indicated that the 16S rRNA from the Rehai geothermal isolates have unique secondary structure characteristics in helix 6, helix 9, and helix 10 (reference to Escherichia coli). This research is the first attempt to reveal the diversity of Thermus strains that are distributed in the Rehai geothermal area.

Suprafamilial relationships among Rodentia and the phylogenetic effect of removing fast-evolving nucleotides in mitochondrial, exon and intron fragments.

PubMed

Montgelard, Claudine; Forty, Ellen; Arnal, Véronique; Matthee, Conrad A

2008-11-26

The number of rodent clades identified above the family level is contentious, and to date, no consensus has been reached on the basal evolutionary relationships among all rodent families. Rodent suprafamilial phylogenetic relationships are investigated in the present study using approximately 7600 nucleotide characters derived from two mitochondrial genes (Cytochrome b and 12S rRNA), two nuclear exons (IRBP and vWF) and four nuclear introns (MGF, PRKC, SPTBN, THY). Because increasing the number of nucleotides does not necessarily increase phylogenetic signal (especially if the data is saturated), we assess the potential impact of saturation for each dataset by removing the fastest-evolving positions that have been recognized as sources of inconsistencies in phylogenetics. Taxonomic sampling included multiple representatives of all five rodent suborders described. Fast-evolving positions for each dataset were identified individually using a discrete gamma rate category and sites belonging to the most rapidly evolving eighth gamma category were removed. Phylogenetic tree reconstructions were performed on individual and combined datasets using Parsimony, Bayesian, and partitioned Maximum Likelihood criteria. Removal of fast-evolving positions enhanced the phylogenetic signal to noise ratio but the improvement in resolution was not consistent across different data types. The results suggested that elimination of fastest sites only improved the support for nodes moderately affected by homoplasy (the deepest nodes for introns and more recent nodes for exons and mitochondrial genes). The present study based on eight DNA fragments supports a fully resolved higher level rodent phylogeny with moderate to significant nodal support. Two inter-suprafamilial associations emerged. The first comprised a monophyletic assemblage containing the Anomaluromorpha (Anomaluridae + Pedetidae) + Myomorpha (Muridae + Dipodidae) as sister clade to the Castorimorpha (Castoridae + Geomyoidea

Suprafamilial relationships among Rodentia and the phylogenetic effect of removing fast-evolving nucleotides in mitochondrial, exon and intron fragments

PubMed Central

2008-01-01

Background The number of rodent clades identified above the family level is contentious, and to date, no consensus has been reached on the basal evolutionary relationships among all rodent families. Rodent suprafamilial phylogenetic relationships are investigated in the present study using ~7600 nucleotide characters derived from two mitochondrial genes (Cytochrome b and 12S rRNA), two nuclear exons (IRBP and vWF) and four nuclear introns (MGF, PRKC, SPTBN, THY). Because increasing the number of nucleotides does not necessarily increase phylogenetic signal (especially if the data is saturated), we assess the potential impact of saturation for each dataset by removing the fastest-evolving positions that have been recognized as sources of inconsistencies in phylogenetics. Results Taxonomic sampling included multiple representatives of all five rodent suborders described. Fast-evolving positions for each dataset were identified individually using a discrete gamma rate category and sites belonging to the most rapidly evolving eighth gamma category were removed. Phylogenetic tree reconstructions were performed on individual and combined datasets using Parsimony, Bayesian, and partitioned Maximum Likelihood criteria. Removal of fast-evolving positions enhanced the phylogenetic signal to noise ratio but the improvement in resolution was not consistent across different data types. The results suggested that elimination of fastest sites only improved the support for nodes moderately affected by homoplasy (the deepest nodes for introns and more recent nodes for exons and mitochondrial genes). Conclusion The present study based on eight DNA fragments supports a fully resolved higher level rodent phylogeny with moderate to significant nodal support. Two inter-suprafamilial associations emerged. The first comprised a monophyletic assemblage containing the Anomaluromorpha (Anomaluridae + Pedetidae) + Myomorpha (Muridae + Dipodidae) as sister clade to the Castorimorpha

Bayesian B-spline mapping for dynamic quantitative traits.

PubMed

Xing, Jun; Li, Jiahan; Yang, Runqing; Zhou, Xiaojing; Xu, Shizhong

2012-04-01

Owing to their ability and flexibility to describe individual gene expression at different time points, random regression (RR) analyses have become a popular procedure for the genetic analysis of dynamic traits whose phenotypes are collected over time. Specifically, when modelling the dynamic patterns of gene expressions in the RR framework, B-splines have been proved successful as an alternative to orthogonal polynomials. In the so-called Bayesian B-spline quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping, B-splines are used to characterize the patterns of QTL effects and individual-specific time-dependent environmental errors over time, and the Bayesian shrinkage estimation method is employed to estimate model parameters. Extensive simulations demonstrate that (1) in terms of statistical power, Bayesian B-spline mapping outperforms the interval mapping based on the maximum likelihood; (2) for the simulated dataset with complicated growth curve simulated by B-splines, Legendre polynomial-based Bayesian mapping is not capable of identifying the designed QTLs accurately, even when higher-order Legendre polynomials are considered and (3) for the simulated dataset using Legendre polynomials, the Bayesian B-spline mapping can find the same QTLs as those identified by Legendre polynomial analysis. All simulation results support the necessity and flexibility of B-spline in Bayesian mapping of dynamic traits. The proposed method is also applied to a real dataset, where QTLs controlling the growth trajectory of stem diameters in Populus are located.

Bayesian Regression with Network Prior: Optimal Bayesian Filtering Perspective

PubMed Central

Qian, Xiaoning; Dougherty, Edward R.

2017-01-01

The recently introduced intrinsically Bayesian robust filter (IBRF) provides fully optimal filtering relative to a prior distribution over an uncertainty class ofjoint random process models, whereas formerly the theory was limited to model-constrained Bayesian robust filters, for which optimization was limited to the filters that are optimal for models in the uncertainty class. This paper extends the IBRF theory to the situation where there are both a prior on the uncertainty class and sample data. The result is optimal Bayesian filtering (OBF), where optimality is relative to the posterior distribution derived from the prior and the data. The IBRF theories for effective characteristics and canonical expansions extend to the OBF setting. A salient focus of the present work is to demonstrate the advantages of Bayesian regression within the OBF setting over the classical Bayesian approach in the context otlinear Gaussian models. PMID:28824268

Bayesian Analysis of Nonlinear Structural Equation Models with Nonignorable Missing Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Sik-Yum

2006-01-01

A Bayesian approach is developed for analyzing nonlinear structural equation models with nonignorable missing data. The nonignorable missingness mechanism is specified by a logistic regression model. A hybrid algorithm that combines the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to produce the joint Bayesian estimates of…

Genetic variation and phylogenetic relationships of the ectomycorrhizal Floccularia luteovirens on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

PubMed

Xing, Rui; Gao, Qing-Bo; Zhang, Fa-Qi; Fu, Peng-Cheng; Wang, Jiu-Li; Yan, Hui-Ying; Chen, Shi-Long

2017-08-01

Floccularia luteovirens, as an ectomycorrhizal fungus, is widely distributed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. As an edible fungus, it is famous for its unique flavor. Former studies mainly focus on the chemical composition and genetic structure of this species. However, the phylogenetic relationship between genotypes remains unknown. In this study, the genetic variation and phylogenetic relationship between the genotypes of F. luteovirens in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was estimated through the analysis on two protein-coding genes (rpb1 and ef-1α) from 398 individuals collected from 24 wild populations. The sample covered the entire range of this species during all the growth seasons from 2011 to 2015. 13 genotypes were detected and moderate genetic diversity was revealed. Based on the results of network analysis, the maximum likelihood (ML), maximum parsimony (MP), and Bayesian inference (BI) analyses, the genotypes H-1, H-4, H-6, H-8, H-10, and H-11 were grouped into one clade. Additionally, a relatively higher genotype diversity (average h value is 0.722) and unique genotypes in the northeast edge of Qinghai- Tibet plateau have been found, combined with the results of mismatch analysis and neutrality tests indicated that Southeast Qinghai-Tibet plateau was a refuge for F. luteovirens during the historical geological or climatic events (uplifting of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau or Last Glacial Maximum). Furthermore, the present distribution of the species on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau has resulted from the recent population expansion. Our findings provide a foundation for the future study of the evolutionary history and the speciation of this species.

An efficient Bayesian data-worth analysis using a multilevel Monte Carlo method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Dan; Ricciuto, Daniel; Evans, Katherine

2018-03-01

Improving the understanding of subsurface systems and thus reducing prediction uncertainty requires collection of data. As the collection of subsurface data is costly, it is important that the data collection scheme is cost-effective. Design of a cost-effective data collection scheme, i.e., data-worth analysis, requires quantifying model parameter, prediction, and both current and potential data uncertainties. Assessment of these uncertainties in large-scale stochastic subsurface hydrological model simulations using standard Monte Carlo (MC) sampling or surrogate modeling is extremely computationally intensive, sometimes even infeasible. In this work, we propose an efficient Bayesian data-worth analysis using a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method. Compared to the standard MC that requires a significantly large number of high-fidelity model executions to achieve a prescribed accuracy in estimating expectations, the MLMC can substantially reduce computational costs using multifidelity approximations. Since the Bayesian data-worth analysis involves a great deal of expectation estimation, the cost saving of the MLMC in the assessment can be outstanding. While the proposed MLMC-based data-worth analysis is broadly applicable, we use it for a highly heterogeneous two-phase subsurface flow simulation to select an optimal candidate data set that gives the largest uncertainty reduction in predicting mass flow rates at four production wells. The choices made by the MLMC estimation are validated by the actual measurements of the potential data, and consistent with the standard MC estimation. But compared to the standard MC, the MLMC greatly reduces the computational costs.

Meta-analysis of the effect of natural frequencies on Bayesian reasoning.

PubMed

McDowell, Michelle; Jacobs, Perke

2017-12-01

The natural frequency facilitation effect describes the finding that people are better able to solve descriptive Bayesian inference tasks when represented as joint frequencies obtained through natural sampling, known as natural frequencies, than as conditional probabilities. The present meta-analysis reviews 20 years of research seeking to address when, why, and for whom natural frequency formats are most effective. We review contributions from research associated with the 2 dominant theoretical perspectives, the ecological rationality framework and nested-sets theory, and test potential moderators of the effect. A systematic review of relevant literature yielded 35 articles representing 226 performance estimates. These estimates were statistically integrated using a bivariate mixed-effects model that yields summary estimates of average performances across the 2 formats and estimates of the effects of different study characteristics on performance. These study characteristics range from moderators representing individual characteristics (e.g., numeracy, expertise), to methodological differences (e.g., use of incentives, scoring criteria) and features of problem representation (e.g., short menu format, visual aid). Short menu formats (less computationally complex representations showing joint-events) and visual aids demonstrated some of the strongest moderation effects, improving performance for both conditional probability and natural frequency formats. A number of methodological factors (e.g., exposure to both problem formats) were also found to affect performance rates, emphasizing the importance of a systematic approach. We suggest how research on Bayesian reasoning can be strengthened by broadening the definition of successful Bayesian reasoning to incorporate choice and process and by applying different research methodologies. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Biological pattern and transcriptomic exploration and phylogenetic analysis in the odd floral architecture tree: Helwingia willd.

PubMed

Sun, Cheng; Yu, Guoliang; Bao, Manzhu; Zheng, Bo; Ning, Guogui

2014-06-27

Odd traits in few of plant species usually implicate potential biology significances in plant evolutions. The genus Helwingia Willd, a dioecious medical shrub in Aquifoliales order, has an odd floral architecture-epiphyllous inflorescence. The potential significances and possible evolutionary origin of this specie are not well understood due to poorly available data of biological and genetic studies. In addition, the advent of genomics-based technologies has widely revolutionized plant species with unknown genomic information. Morphological and biological pattern were detailed via anatomical and pollination analyses. An RNA sequencing based transcriptomic analysis were undertaken and a high-resolution phylogenetic analysis was conducted based on single-copy genes in more than 80 species of seed plants, including H. japonica. It is verified that a potential fusion of rachis to the leaf midvein facilitates insect pollination. RNA sequencing yielded a total of 111450 unigenes; half of them had significant similarity with proteins in the public database, and 20281 unigenes were mapped to 119 pathways. Deduced from the phylogenetic analysis based on single-copy genes, the group of Helwingia is closer with Euasterids II and rather than Euasterids, congruent with previous reports using plastid sequences. The odd flower architecture make H. Willd adapt to insect pollination by hosting those insects larger than the flower in size via leave, which has little common character that other insect pollination plants hold. Further the present transcriptome greatly riches genomics information of Helwingia species and nucleus genes based phylogenetic analysis also greatly improve the resolution and robustness of phylogenetic reconstruction in H. japonica.

A Bayesian Framework for Reliability Analysis of Spacecraft Deployments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, John W.; Gallo, Luis; Kaminsky, Mark

2012-01-01

Deployable subsystems are essential to mission success of most spacecraft. These subsystems enable critical functions including power, communications and thermal control. The loss of any of these functions will generally result in loss of the mission. These subsystems and their components often consist of unique designs and applications for which various standardized data sources are not applicable for estimating reliability and for assessing risks. In this study, a two stage sequential Bayesian framework for reliability estimation of spacecraft deployment was developed for this purpose. This process was then applied to the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Sunshield subsystem, a unique design intended for thermal control of the Optical Telescope Element. Initially, detailed studies of NASA deployment history, "heritage information", were conducted, extending over 45 years of spacecraft launches. This information was then coupled to a non-informative prior and a binomial likelihood function to create a posterior distribution for deployments of various subsystems uSing Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampling. Select distributions were then coupled to a subsequent analysis, using test data and anomaly occurrences on successive ground test deployments of scale model test articles of JWST hardware, to update the NASA heritage data. This allowed for a realistic prediction for the reliability of the complex Sunshield deployment, with credibility limits, within this two stage Bayesian framework.

Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

2015-01-01

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

Tandem repeats analysis for the high resolution phylogenetic analysis of Yersinia pestis

PubMed Central

Pourcel, C; André-Mazeaud, F; Neubauer, H; Ramisse, F; Vergnaud, G

2004-01-01

Background Yersinia pestis, the agent of plague, is a young and highly monomorphic species. Three biovars, each one thought to be associated with the last three Y. pestis pandemics, have been defined based on biochemical assays. More recently, DNA based assays, including DNA sequencing, IS typing, DNA arrays, have significantly improved current knowledge on the origin and phylogenetic evolution of Y. pestis. However, these methods suffer either from a lack of resolution or from the difficulty to compare data. Variable number of tandem repeats (VNTRs) provides valuable polymorphic markers for genotyping and performing phylogenetic analyses in a growing number of pathogens and have given promising results for Y. pestis as well. Results In this study we have genotyped 180 Y. pestis isolates by multiple locus VNTR analysis (MLVA) using 25 markers. Sixty-one different genotypes were observed. The three biovars were distributed into three main branches, with some exceptions. In particular, the Medievalis phenotype is clearly heterogeneous, resulting from different mutation events in the napA gene. Antiqua strains from Asia appear to hold a central position compared to Antiqua strains from Africa. A subset of 7 markers is proposed for the quick comparison of a new strain with the collection typed here. This can be easily achieved using a Web-based facility, specifically set-up for running such identifications. Conclusion Tandem-repeat typing may prove to be a powerful complement to the existing phylogenetic tools for Y. pestis. Typing can be achieved quickly at a low cost in terms of consumables, technical expertise and equipment. The resulting data can be easily compared between different laboratories. The number and selection of markers will eventually depend upon the type and aim of investigations. PMID:15186506

Complete mitochondrial DNA genome of bonnethead shark, Sphyrna tiburo, and phylogenetic relationships among main superorders of modern elasmobranchs

PubMed Central

Díaz-Jaimes, Píndaro; Bayona-Vásquez, Natalia J.; Adams, Douglas H.; Uribe-Alcocer, Manuel

2015-01-01

Elasmobranchs are one of the most diverse groups in the marine realm represented by 18 orders, 55 families and about 1200 species reported, but also one of the most vulnerable to exploitation and to climate change. Phylogenetic relationships among main orders have been controversial since the emergence of the Hypnosqualean hypothesis by Shirai (1992) that considered batoids as a sister group of sharks. The use of the complete mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) may shed light to further validate this hypothesis by increasing the number of informative characters. We report the mtDNA genome of the bonnethead shark Sphyrna tiburo, and compare it with mitogenomes of other 48 species to assess phylogenetic relationships. The mtDNA genome of S. tiburo, is quite similar in size to that of congeneric species but also similar to the reported mtDNA genome of other Carcharhinidae species. Like most vertebrate mitochondrial genomes, it contained 13 protein coding genes, two rRNA genes and 22 tRNA genes and the control region of 1086 bp (D-loop). The Bayesian analysis of the 49 mitogenomes supported the view that sharks and batoids are separate groups. PMID:27014583

Bayesian analysis of the flutter margin method in aeroelasticity

DOE PAGES

Khalil, Mohammad; Poirel, Dominique; Sarkar, Abhijit

2016-08-27

A Bayesian statistical framework is presented for Zimmerman and Weissenburger flutter margin method which considers the uncertainties in aeroelastic modal parameters. The proposed methodology overcomes the limitations of the previously developed least-square based estimation technique which relies on the Gaussian approximation of the flutter margin probability density function (pdf). Using the measured free-decay responses at subcritical (preflutter) airspeeds, the joint non-Gaussain posterior pdf of the modal parameters is sampled using the Metropolis–Hastings (MH) Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The posterior MCMC samples of the modal parameters are then used to obtain the flutter margin pdfs and finally the fluttermore » speed pdf. The usefulness of the Bayesian flutter margin method is demonstrated using synthetic data generated from a two-degree-of-freedom pitch-plunge aeroelastic model. The robustness of the statistical framework is demonstrated using different sets of measurement data. In conclusion, it will be shown that the probabilistic (Bayesian) approach reduces the number of test points required in providing a flutter speed estimate for a given accuracy and precision.« less

Critically evaluating the theory and performance of Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures

PubMed Central

Moore, Brian R.; Höhna, Sebastian; May, Michael R.; Rannala, Bruce; Huelsenbeck, John P.

2016-01-01

Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures (BAMM) has recently taken the study of lineage diversification by storm. BAMM estimates the diversification-rate parameters (speciation and extinction) for every branch of a study phylogeny and infers the number and location of diversification-rate shifts across branches of a tree. Our evaluation of BAMM reveals two major theoretical errors: (i) the likelihood function (which estimates the model parameters from the data) is incorrect, and (ii) the compound Poisson process prior model (which describes the prior distribution of diversification-rate shifts across branches) is incoherent. Using simulation, we demonstrate that these theoretical issues cause statistical pathologies; posterior estimates of the number of diversification-rate shifts are strongly influenced by the assumed prior, and estimates of diversification-rate parameters are unreliable. Moreover, the inability to correctly compute the likelihood or to correctly specify the prior for rate-variable trees precludes the use of Bayesian approaches for testing hypotheses regarding the number and location of diversification-rate shifts using BAMM. PMID:27512038

Bayesian analysis of biogeography when the number of areas is large.

PubMed

Landis, Michael J; Matzke, Nicholas J; Moore, Brian R; Huelsenbeck, John P

2013-11-01

Historical biogeography is increasingly studied from an explicitly statistical perspective, using stochastic models to describe the evolution of species range as a continuous-time Markov process of dispersal between and extinction within a set of discrete geographic areas. The main constraint of these methods is the computational limit on the number of areas that can be specified. We propose a Bayesian approach for inferring biogeographic history that extends the application of biogeographic models to the analysis of more realistic problems that involve a large number of areas. Our solution is based on a "data-augmentation" approach, in which we first populate the tree with a history of biogeographic events that is consistent with the observed species ranges at the tips of the tree. We then calculate the likelihood of a given history by adopting a mechanistic interpretation of the instantaneous-rate matrix, which specifies both the exponential waiting times between biogeographic events and the relative probabilities of each biogeographic change. We develop this approach in a Bayesian framework, marginalizing over all possible biogeographic histories using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Besides dramatically increasing the number of areas that can be accommodated in a biogeographic analysis, our method allows the parameters of a given biogeographic model to be estimated and different biogeographic models to be objectively compared. Our approach is implemented in the program, BayArea.

The phylogenetic position of the Critically Endangered Saint Croix ground lizard Ameiva polops: revisiting molecular systematics of West Indian Ameiva.

PubMed

Hurtado, Luis A; Santamaria, Carlos A; Fitzgerald, Lee A

2014-05-06

The phylogenetic position of the critically endangered Saint Croix ground lizard Ameiva polops is presently unknown and several hypotheses have been proposed. We investigated the phylogenetic position of this species using molecular phylogenetic methods. We obtained sequences of DNA fragments of the mitochondrial ribosomal genes 12S rDNA and 16S rDNA for this species. We aligned these sequences with published sequences of other Ameiva species, which include most of the Ameiva species from the West Indies, three Ameiva species from Central America and South America, and one from the teiid lizard Tupinambis teguixin, which was used as outgroup. We conducted Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses. The phylogenetic reconstructions among the different methods were very similar, supporting the monophyly of West Indian Ameiva and showing within this lineage, a basal polytomy of four clades that are separated geographically. Ameiva polops grouped in a cluster that included the other two Ameiva species found in the Puerto Rican Bank: A. wetmorei and A. exsul. A sister relationship between A. polops and A. wetmorei is suggested by our analyses. We compare our results with a previous study on molecular systematics of West Indian Ameiva. 

Bayesian methods including nonrandomized study data increased the efficiency of postlaunch RCTs.

PubMed

Schmidt, Amand F; Klugkist, Irene; Klungel, Olaf H; Nielen, Mirjam; de Boer, Anthonius; Hoes, Arno W; Groenwold, Rolf H H

2015-04-01

Findings from nonrandomized studies on safety or efficacy of treatment in patient subgroups may trigger postlaunch randomized clinical trials (RCTs). In the analysis of such RCTs, results from nonrandomized studies are typically ignored. This study explores the trade-off between bias and power of Bayesian RCT analysis incorporating information from nonrandomized studies. A simulation study was conducted to compare frequentist with Bayesian analyses using noninformative and informative priors in their ability to detect interaction effects. In simulated subgroups, the effect of a hypothetical treatment differed between subgroups (odds ratio 1.00 vs. 2.33). Simulations varied in sample size, proportions of the subgroups, and specification of the priors. As expected, the results for the informative Bayesian analyses were more biased than those from the noninformative Bayesian analysis or frequentist analysis. However, because of a reduction in posterior variance, informative Bayesian analyses were generally more powerful to detect an effect. In scenarios where the informative priors were in the opposite direction of the RCT data, type 1 error rates could be 100% and power 0%. Bayesian methods incorporating data from nonrandomized studies can meaningfully increase power of interaction tests in postlaunch RCTs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

World reclassification of the Cardiophorinae (Coleoptera, Elateridae), based on phylogenetic analyses of morphological characters

PubMed Central

Douglas, Hume B.

2017-01-01

Abstract The prior genus-level classification of Cardiophorinae had never been assessed phylogenetically, and not revised since 1906. A phylogeny for Cardiophorinae and Negastriinae is inferred by Bayesian analyses of 163 adult morphological characters to revise the generic classification. Parsimony analysis is also performed to assess the sensitivity of the Bayesian results to the choice of optimality criterion. Bayesian hypothesis testing rejected monophyly for: Negastriinae; Cardiophorinae (but monophyletic after addition of four taxa); Cardiophorini; cardiophorine genera Aphricus LeConte, 1853; Aptopus Eschscholtz, 1829; Cardiophorus Eschscholtz, 1829; Cardiotarsus Eschscholtz, 1836; Paracardiophorus Schwarz, 1895; Phorocardius Fleutiaux, 1931; Dicronychus sensu Platia, 1994; Dicronychus sensu Méquignon, 1931; Craspedostethus sensu Schwarz, 1906 (i.e., including Tropidiplus Fleutiaux, 1903); Paracardiophorus sensu Cobos, 1970, although well-supported alternative classifications were available for only some. Based on taxonomic interpretation of phylogenetic results: Nyctorini is syn. n. of Cardiophorini; Globothorax Fleutiaux, 1891 (Physodactylinae), Margogastrius Schwarz, 1903 (Physodactylinae), and Pachyelater Lesne, 1897 (Dendrometrinae) are transferred to Cardiophorinae. The following changes are proposed for cardiophorine genera: Aptopus Eschscholtz, 1829 is redefined to exclude Horistonotus-like species; Coptostethus Wollaston, 1854 is subgenus of Cardiophorus; Dicronychus Brullé, 1832 and Diocarphus Fleutiaux, 1947, Metacardiophorus Gurjeva, 1966, Platynychus Motschulsky, 1858, and Zygocardiophorus Iablokoff-Khnzorian and Mardjanian, 1981 are placed at genus rank; Paracardiophorus Schwarz, 1895 is redefined based on North American and Eurasian species only; Horistonotus Candèze, 1860 redefined to include species with multiple apices on each side of their tarsal claws; Patriciella Van Zwaluwenburg, 1953 is syn. n. of Aphricus LeConte, 1853; Teslasena

World reclassification of the Cardiophorinae (Coleoptera, Elateridae), based on phylogenetic analyses of morphological characters.

PubMed

Douglas, Hume B

2017-01-01

The prior genus-level classification of Cardiophorinae had never been assessed phylogenetically, and not revised since 1906. A phylogeny for Cardiophorinae and Negastriinae is inferred by Bayesian analyses of 163 adult morphological characters to revise the generic classification. Parsimony analysis is also performed to assess the sensitivity of the Bayesian results to the choice of optimality criterion. Bayesian hypothesis testing rejected monophyly for: Negastriinae; Cardiophorinae (but monophyletic after addition of four taxa); Cardiophorini; cardiophorine genera Aphricus LeConte, 1853; Aptopus Eschscholtz, 1829; Cardiophorus Eschscholtz, 1829; Cardiotarsus Eschscholtz, 1836; Paracardiophorus Schwarz, 1895; Phorocardius Fleutiaux, 1931; Dicronychus sensu Platia, 1994; Dicronychus sensu Méquignon, 1931; Craspedostethus sensu Schwarz, 1906 (i.e., including Tropidiplus Fleutiaux, 1903); Paracardiophorus sensu Cobos, 1970, although well-supported alternative classifications were available for only some. Based on taxonomic interpretation of phylogenetic results: Nyctorini is syn. n. of Cardiophorini; Globothorax Fleutiaux, 1891 (Physodactylinae), Margogastrius Schwarz, 1903 (Physodactylinae), and Pachyelater Lesne, 1897 (Dendrometrinae) are transferred to Cardiophorinae. The following changes are proposed for cardiophorine genera: Aptopus Eschscholtz, 1829 is redefined to exclude Horistonotus -like species; Coptostethus Wollaston, 1854 is subgenus of Cardiophorus ; Dicronychus Brullé, 1832 and Diocarphus Fleutiaux, 1947, Metacardiophorus Gurjeva, 1966, Platynychus Motschulsky, 1858, and Zygocardiophorus Iablokoff-Khnzorian and Mardjanian, 1981 are placed at genus rank; Paracardiophorus Schwarz, 1895 is redefined based on North American and Eurasian species only; Horistonotus Candèze, 1860 redefined to include species with multiple apices on each side of their tarsal claws; Patriciella Van Zwaluwenburg, 1953 is syn. n. of Aphricus LeConte, 1853; Teslasena Fleutiaux

Phylogenetic analysis of mitochondrial protein coding genes confirms the reciprocal paraphyly of Hexapoda and Crustacea

PubMed Central

Carapelli, Antonio; Liò, Pietro; Nardi, Francesco; van der Wath, Elizabeth; Frati, Francesco

2007-01-01

Background The phylogeny of Arthropoda is still a matter of harsh debate among systematists, and significant disagreement exists between morphological and molecular studies. In particular, while the taxon joining hexapods and crustaceans (the Pancrustacea) is now widely accepted among zoologists, the relationships among its basal lineages, and particularly the supposed reciprocal paraphyly of Crustacea and Hexapoda, continues to represent a challenge. Several genes, as well as different molecular markers, have been used to tackle this problem in molecular phylogenetic studies, with the mitochondrial DNA being one of the molecules of choice. In this study, we have assembled the largest data set available so far for Pancrustacea, consisting of 100 complete (or almost complete) sequences of mitochondrial genomes. After removal of unalignable sequence regions and highly rearranged genomes, we used nucleotide and inferred amino acid sequences of the 13 protein coding genes to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationships among major lineages of Pancrustacea. The analysis was performed with Bayesian inference, and for the amino acid sequences a new, Pancrustacea-specific, matrix of amino acid replacement was developed and used in this study. Results Two largely congruent trees were obtained from the analysis of nucleotide and amino acid datasets. In particular, the best tree obtained based on the new matrix of amino acid replacement (MtPan) was preferred over those obtained using previously available matrices (MtArt and MtRev) because of its higher likelihood score. The most remarkable result is the reciprocal paraphyly of Hexapoda and Crustacea, with some lineages of crustaceans (namely the Malacostraca, Cephalocarida and, possibly, the Branchiopoda) being more closely related to the Insecta s.s. (Ectognatha) than two orders of basal hexapods, Collembola and Diplura. Our results confirm that the mitochondrial genome, unlike analyses based on morphological data or nuclear

BEAGLE: An Application Programming Interface and High-Performance Computing Library for Statistical Phylogenetics

PubMed Central

Ayres, Daniel L.; Darling, Aaron; Zwickl, Derrick J.; Beerli, Peter; Holder, Mark T.; Lewis, Paul O.; Huelsenbeck, John P.; Ronquist, Fredrik; Swofford, David L.; Cummings, Michael P.; Rambaut, Andrew; Suchard, Marc A.

2012-01-01

Abstract Phylogenetic inference is fundamental to our understanding of most aspects of the origin and evolution of life, and in recent years, there has been a concentration of interest in statistical approaches such as Bayesian inference and maximum likelihood estimation. Yet, for large data sets and realistic or interesting models of evolution, these approaches remain computationally demanding. High-throughput sequencing can yield data for thousands of taxa, but scaling to such problems using serial computing often necessitates the use of nonstatistical or approximate approaches. The recent emergence of graphics processing units (GPUs) provides an opportunity to leverage their excellent floating-point computational performance to accelerate statistical phylogenetic inference. A specialized library for phylogenetic calculation would allow existing software packages to make more effective use of available computer hardware, including GPUs. Adoption of a common library would also make it easier for other emerging computing architectures, such as field programmable gate arrays, to be used in the future. We present BEAGLE, an application programming interface (API) and library for high-performance statistical phylogenetic inference. The API provides a uniform interface for performing phylogenetic likelihood calculations on a variety of compute hardware platforms. The library includes a set of efficient implementations and can currently exploit hardware including GPUs using NVIDIA CUDA, central processing units (CPUs) with Streaming SIMD Extensions and related processor supplementary instruction sets, and multicore CPUs via OpenMP. To demonstrate the advantages of a common API, we have incorporated the library into several popular phylogenetic software packages. The BEAGLE library is free open source software licensed under the Lesser GPL and available from http://beagle-lib.googlecode.com. An example client program is available as public domain software. PMID:21963610

Ixodes ricinus Tick Lipocalins: Identification, Cloning, Phylogenetic Analysis and Biochemical Characterization

PubMed Central

Beaufays, Jérôme; Adam, Benoît; Decrem, Yves; Prévôt, Pierre-Paul; Santini, Sébastien; Brasseur, Robert; Brossard, Michel; Lins, Laurence

2008-01-01

Background During their blood meal, ticks secrete a wide variety of proteins that interfere with their host's defense mechanisms. Among these proteins, lipocalins play a major role in the modulation of the inflammatory response. Methodology/Principal Findings Screening a cDNA library in association with RT-PCR and RACE methodologies allowed us to identify 14 new lipocalin genes in the salivary glands of the Ixodes ricinus hard tick. A computational in-depth structural analysis confirmed that LIRs belong to the lipocalin family. These proteins were called LIR for “Lipocalin from I. ricinus” and numbered from 1 to 14 (LIR1 to LIR14). According to their percentage identity/similarity, LIR proteins may be assigned to 6 distinct phylogenetic groups. The mature proteins have calculated pM and pI varying from 21.8 kDa to 37.2 kDa and from 4.45 to 9.57 respectively. In a western blot analysis, all recombinant LIRs appeared as a series of thin bands at 50–70 kDa, suggesting extensive glycosylation, which was experimentally confirmed by treatment with N-glycosidase F. In addition, the in vivo expression analysis of LIRs in I. ricinus, examined by RT-PCR, showed homogeneous expression profiles for certain phylogenetic groups and relatively heterogeneous profiles for other groups. Finally, we demonstrated that LIR6 codes for a protein that specifically binds leukotriene B4. Conclusions/Significance This work confirms that, regarding their biochemical properties, expression profile, and sequence signature, lipocalins in Ixodes hard tick genus, and more specifically in the Ixodes ricinus species, are segregated into distinct phylogenetic groups suggesting potential distinct function. This was particularly demonstrated by the ability of LIR6 to scavenge leukotriene B4. The other LIRs did not bind any of the ligands tested, such as 5-hydroxytryptamine, ADP, norepinephrine, platelet activating factor, prostaglandins D2 and E2, and finally leukotrienes B4 and C4. PMID:19096708

Molecular cytogenetic characterisation and phylogenetic analysis of the seven cultivated Vigna species (Fabaceae).

PubMed

She, C-W; Jiang, X-H; Ou, L-J; Liu, J; Long, K-L; Zhang, L-H; Duan, W-T; Zhao, W; Hu, J-C

2015-01-01

The genomic organisation of the seven cultivated Vigna species, V. unguiculata, V. subterranea, V. angularis, V. umbellata, V. radiata, V. mungo and V. aconitifolia, was determined using sequential combined PI and DAPI (CPD) staining and dual-colour fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) with 5S and 45S rDNA probes. For phylogenetic analyses, comparative genomic in situ hybridisation (cGISH) onto somatic chromosomes and sequence analysis of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) of 45S rDNA were used. Quantitative karyotypes were established using chromosome measurements, fluorochrome bands and rDNA FISH signals. All species had symmetrical karyotypes composed of only metacentric or metacentric and submetacentric chromosomes. Distinct heterochromatin differentiation was revealed by CPD staining and DAPI counterstaining after FISH. The rDNA sites among all species differed in their number, location and size. cGISH of V. umbellata genomic DNA to the chromosomes of all species produced strong signals in all centromeric regions of V. umbellata and V. angularis, weak signals in all pericentromeric regions of V. aconitifolia, and CPD-banded proximal regions of V. mungo var. mungo. Molecular phylogenetic trees showed that V. angularis and V. umbellata were the closest relatives, and V. mungo and V. aconitifolia were relatively closely related; these species formed a group that was separated from another group comprising V. radiata, V. unguiculata ssp. sesquipedalis and V. subterranea. This result was consistent with the phylogenetic relationships inferred from the heterochromatin and cGISH patterns; thus, fluorochrome banding and cGISH are efficient tools for the phylogenetic analysis of Vigna species. © 2014 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Increased phylogenetic resolution within the ecologically important Rhizopogon subgenus Amylopogon using 10 anonymous nuclear loci.

PubMed

Dowie, Nicholas J; Grubisha, Lisa C; Burton, Brent A; Klooster, Matthew R; Miller, Steven L

2017-01-01

Rhizopogon species are ecologically significant ectomycorrhizal fungi in conifer ecosystems. The importance of this system merits the development and utilization of a more robust set of molecular markers specifically designed to evaluate their evolutionary ecology. Anonymous nuclear loci (ANL) were developed for R. subgenus Amylopogon. Members of this subgenus occur throughout the United States and are exclusive fungal symbionts associated with Pterospora andromedea, a threatened mycoheterotrophic plant endemic to disjunct eastern and western regions of North America. Candidate ANL were developed from 454 shotgun pyrosequencing and assessed for positive amplification across targeted species, sequencing success, and recovery of phylogenetically informative sites. Ten ANL were successfully developed and were subsequently used to sequence representative taxa, herbaria holotype and paratype specimens in R. subgenus Amylopogon. Phylogenetic reconstructions were performed on individual and concatenated data sets by Bayesian inference and maximum likelihood methods. Phylogenetic analyses of these 10 ANL were compared with a phylogeny traditionally constructed using the universal fungal barcode nuc rDNA ITS1-5.8S-ITS2 region (ITS). The resulting ANL phylogeny was consistent with most of the species designations delineated by ITS. However, the ANL phylogeny provided much greater phylogenetic resolution, yielding new evidence for cryptic species within previously defined species of R. subgenus Amylopogon. Additionally, the rooted ANL phylogeny provided an alternate topology to the ITS phylogeny, which inferred a novel set of evolutionary relationships not identified in prior phylogenetic studies.

A Two-Step Bayesian Approach for Propensity Score Analysis: Simulations and Case Study.

PubMed

Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

2012-07-01

A two-step Bayesian propensity score approach is introduced that incorporates prior information in the propensity score equation and outcome equation without the problems associated with simultaneous Bayesian propensity score approaches. The corresponding variance estimators are also provided. The two-step Bayesian propensity score is provided for three methods of implementation: propensity score stratification, weighting, and optimal full matching. Three simulation studies and one case study are presented to elaborate the proposed two-step Bayesian propensity score approach. Results of the simulation studies reveal that greater precision in the propensity score equation yields better recovery of the frequentist-based treatment effect. A slight advantage is shown for the Bayesian approach in small samples. Results also reveal that greater precision around the wrong treatment effect can lead to seriously distorted results. However, greater precision around the correct treatment effect parameter yields quite good results, with slight improvement seen with greater precision in the propensity score equation. A comparison of coverage rates for the conventional frequentist approach and proposed Bayesian approach is also provided. The case study reveals that credible intervals are wider than frequentist confidence intervals when priors are non-informative.

Molecular phylogenetics and diversification of trap-jaw ants in the genera Anochetus and Odontomachus (Hymenoptera: Formicidae).

PubMed

Larabee, Fredrick J; Fisher, Brian L; Schmidt, Chris A; Matos-Maraví, Pável; Janda, Milan; Suarez, Andrew V

2016-10-01

Ants in the genera Anochetus and Odontomachus belong to one of the largest clades in the subfamily Ponerinae, and are one of four lineages of ants possessing spring-loaded "trap-jaws." Here we present results from the first global species-level molecular phylogenetic analysis of these trap-jaw ants, reconstructed from one mitochondrial, one ribosomal RNA, and three nuclear protein-coding genes. Bayesian and likelihood analyses strongly support reciprocal monophyly for the genera Anochetus and Odontomachus. Additionally, we found strong support for seven trap-jaw ant clades (four in Anochetus and three in Odontomachus) mostly concordant with geographic distribution. Ambiguity remains concerning the closest living non-trap-jaw ant relative of the Anochetus+Odontomachus clade, but Bayes factor hypothesis testing strongly suggests that trap-jaw ants evolved from a short mandible ancestor. Ponerine trap-jaw ants originated in the early Eocene (52.5Mya) in either South America or Southeast Asia, where they have radiated rapidly in the last 30million years, and subsequently dispersed multiple times to Africa and Australia. These results will guide future taxonomic work on the group and act as a phylogenetic framework to study the macroevolution of extreme ant mouthpart specialization. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Isolation and Phylogenetic Analysis of Sindbis Viruses from Mosquitoes in Germany ▿

PubMed Central

Jöst, Hanna; Bialonski, Alexandra; Storch, Volker; Günther, Stephan; Becker, Norbert; Schmidt-Chanasit, Jonas

2010-01-01

A molecular survey of 16,057 mosquitoes captured in Southwest Germany during the summer of 2009 demonstrated the presence of Sindbis virus (SINV) in Culex spp. and Anopheles maculipennis sensu lato. Phylogenetic analysis of the German SINV strains linked them with Swedish SINV strains, the causative agent of Ockelbo disease in humans. PMID:20335414

Bayesian species delimitation in Pleophylla chafers (Coleoptera) - the importance of prior choice and morphology.

PubMed

Eberle, Jonas; Warnock, Rachel C M; Ahrens, Dirk

2016-05-05

Defining species units can be challenging, especially during the earliest stages of speciation, when phylogenetic inference and delimitation methods may be compromised by incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) or secondary gene flow. Integrative approaches to taxonomy, which combine molecular and morphological evidence, have the potential to be valuable in such cases. In this study we investigated the South African scarab beetle genus Pleophylla using data collected from 110 individuals of eight putative morphospecies. The dataset included four molecular markers (cox1, 16S, rrnL, ITS1) and morphometric data based on male genital morphology. We applied a suite of molecular and morphological approaches to species delimitation, and implemented a novel Bayesian approach in the software iBPP, which enables continuous morphological trait and molecular data to be combined. Traditional morphology-based species assignments were supported quantitatively by morphometric analyses of the male genitalia (eigenshape analysis, CVA, LDA). While the ITS1-based delineation was also broadly congruent with the morphospecies, the cox1 data resulted in over-splitting (GMYC modelling, haplotype networks, PTP, ABGD). In the most extreme case morphospecies shared identical haplotypes, which may be attributable to ILS based on statistical tests performed using the software JML. We found the strongest support for putative morphospecies based on phylogenetic evidence using the combined approach implemented in iBPP. However, support for putative species was sensitive to the use of alternative guide trees and alternative combinations of priors on the population size (θ) and rootage (τ 0 ) parameters, especially when the analysis was based on molecular or morphological data alone. We demonstrate that continuous morphological trait data can be extremely valuable in assessing competing hypotheses to species delimitation. In particular, we show that the inclusion of morphological data in an integrative

Phylogenetic relationships of Malassezia species based on multilocus sequence analysis.

PubMed

Castellá, Gemma; Coutinho, Selene Dall' Acqua; Cabañes, F Javier

2014-01-01

Members of the genus Malassezia are lipophilic basidiomycetous yeasts, which are part of the normal cutaneous microbiota of humans and other warm-blooded animals. Currently, this genus consists of 14 species that have been characterized by phenetic and molecular methods. Although several molecular methods have been used to identify and/or differentiate Malassezia species, the sequencing of the rRNA genes and the chitin synthase-2 gene (CHS2) are the most widely employed. There is little information about the β-tubulin gene in the genus Malassezia, a gene has been used for the analysis of complex species groups. The aim of the present study was to sequence a fragment of the β-tubulin gene of Malassezia species and analyze their phylogenetic relationship using a multilocus sequence approach based on two rRNA genes (ITS including 5.8S rRNA and D1/D2 region of 26S rRNA) together with two protein encoding genes (CHS2 and β-tubulin). The phylogenetic study of the partial β-tubulin gene sequences indicated that this molecular marker can be used to assess diversity and identify new species. The multilocus sequence analysis of the four loci provides robust support to delineate species at the terminal nodes and could help to estimate divergence times for the origin and diversification of Malassezia species.

Bayesian spatial analysis of childhood diseases in Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Tsiko, Rodney Godfrey

2015-09-02

Many sub-Saharan countries are confronted with persistently high levels of childhood morbidity and mortality because of the impact of a range of demographic, biological and social factors or situational events that directly precipitate ill health. In particular, under-five morbidity and mortality have increased in recent decades due to childhood diarrhoea, cough and fever. Understanding the geographic distribution of such diseases and their relationships to potential risk factors can be invaluable for cost effective intervention. Bayesian semi-parametric regression models were used to quantify the spatial risk of childhood diarrhoea, fever and cough, as well as associations between childhood diseases and a range of factors, after accounting for spatial correlation between neighbouring areas. Such semi-parametric regression models allow joint analysis of non-linear effects of continuous covariates, spatially structured variation, unstructured heterogeneity, and other fixed effects on childhood diseases. Modelling and inference made use of the fully Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniques. The analysis was based on data derived from the 1999, 2005/6 and 2010/11 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Surveys (ZDHS). The results suggest that until recently, sex of child had little or no significant association with childhood diseases. However, a higher proportion of male than female children within a given province had a significant association with childhood cough, fever and diarrhoea. Compared to their counterparts in rural areas, children raised in an urban setting had less exposure to cough, fever and diarrhoea across all the survey years with the exception of diarrhoea in 2010. In addition, the link between sanitation, parental education, antenatal care, vaccination and childhood diseases was found to be both intuitive and counterintuitive. Results also showed marked geographical differences in the prevalence of childhood diarrhoea

Hip fracture in the elderly: a re-analysis of the EPIDOS study with causal Bayesian networks.

PubMed

Caillet, Pascal; Klemm, Sarah; Ducher, Michel; Aussem, Alexandre; Schott, Anne-Marie

2015-01-01

Hip fractures commonly result in permanent disability, institutionalization or death in elderly. Existing hip-fracture predicting tools are underused in clinical practice, partly due to their lack of intuitive interpretation. By use of a graphical layer, Bayesian network models could increase the attractiveness of fracture prediction tools. Our aim was to study the potential contribution of a causal Bayesian network in this clinical setting. A logistic regression was performed as a standard control approach to check the robustness of the causal Bayesian network approach. EPIDOS is a multicenter study, conducted in an ambulatory care setting in five French cities between 1992 and 1996 and updated in 2010. The study included 7598 women aged 75 years or older, in which fractures were assessed quarterly during 4 years. A causal Bayesian network and a logistic regression were performed on EPIDOS data to describe major variables involved in hip fractures occurrences. Both models had similar association estimations and predictive performances. They detected gait speed and mineral bone density as variables the most involved in the fracture process. The causal Bayesian network showed that gait speed and bone mineral density were directly connected to fracture and seem to mediate the influence of all the other variables included in our model. The logistic regression approach detected multiple interactions involving psychotropic drug use, age and bone mineral density. Both approaches retrieved similar variables as predictors of hip fractures. However, Bayesian network highlighted the whole web of relation between the variables involved in the analysis, suggesting a possible mechanism leading to hip fracture. According to the latter results, intervention focusing concomitantly on gait speed and bone mineral density may be necessary for an optimal prevention of hip fracture occurrence in elderly people.

The State of Phylogenetic Analysis: Narrow Visions and Simple Answers-Examples from the Diptera (flies).

PubMed

Borkent, Art

2018-01-17

The order Diptera is remarkably diverse, not only in species but in morphological variation in every life stage, making them excellent candidates for phylogenetic analysis. Such analysis has been hampered by methods that have severely restricted character state interpretation. Morphological-based phylogenies should be based on a deep understanding of the morphology, development and function of character states, and have extensive outgroup comparisons made to determine their polarity. Character states clearly vary in their value for determining phylogenetic relationships and this needs to be studied and utilized. Characters themselves need more explicit discussion, including how some may be developmentally or functionally related to other characters (and potentially not independent indicators of genealogical relationship). The current practice by many, of filling a matrix with poorly understood character states and highly limited outgroup comparisons, is unacceptable if the results are to be a valid reflection of the actual history of the group.Parsimony analysis is not an objective interpretation of phylogenetic relationships when all characters are treated as equal in value. Exact mathematical values applied to characters are entirely arbitrary and are generally used to produce a phylogeny that the author considers as reasonable. Mathematical appraisal of a given node is similarly inconsequential because characters do not have an intrinsic mathematical value. Bremer support, for example, provides values that have no biological reality but provide the pretence of objectivity. Cladists need to focus their attention on testing the validity of each synapomorphy proposed, as the basis for all further phylogenetic interpretation, rather than the testing of differing phylogenies through various comparative programs.Current phylogenetic analyses have come to increasingly depend on DNA sequence-based characters, in spite of their tumultuous history of inconsistent results

Quantifying model-structure- and parameter-driven uncertainties in spring wheat phenology prediction with Bayesian analysis

DOE PAGES

Alderman, Phillip D.; Stanfill, Bryan

2016-10-06

Recent international efforts have brought renewed emphasis on the comparison of different agricultural systems models. Thus far, analysis of model-ensemble simulated results has not clearly differentiated between ensemble prediction uncertainties due to model structural differences per se and those due to parameter value uncertainties. Additionally, despite increasing use of Bayesian parameter estimation approaches with field-scale crop models, inadequate attention has been given to the full posterior distributions for estimated parameters. The objectives of this study were to quantify the impact of parameter value uncertainty on prediction uncertainty for modeling spring wheat phenology using Bayesian analysis and to assess the relativemore » contributions of model-structure-driven and parameter-value-driven uncertainty to overall prediction uncertainty. This study used a random walk Metropolis algorithm to estimate parameters for 30 spring wheat genotypes using nine phenology models based on multi-location trial data for days to heading and days to maturity. Across all cases, parameter-driven uncertainty accounted for between 19 and 52% of predictive uncertainty, while model-structure-driven uncertainty accounted for between 12 and 64%. Here, this study demonstrated the importance of quantifying both model-structure- and parameter-value-driven uncertainty when assessing overall prediction uncertainty in modeling spring wheat phenology. More generally, Bayesian parameter estimation provided a useful framework for quantifying and analyzing sources of prediction uncertainty.« less

Phylogenetic analyses of complete mitochondrial genome sequences suggest a basal divergence of the enigmatic rodent Anomalurus

PubMed Central

Horner, David S; Lefkimmiatis, Konstantinos; Reyes, Aurelio; Gissi, Carmela; Saccone, Cecilia; Pesole, Graziano

2007-01-01

Background Phylogenetic relationships between Lagomorpha, Rodentia and Primates and their allies (Euarchontoglires) have long been debated. While it is now generally agreed that Rodentia constitutes a monophyletic sister-group of Lagomorpha and that this clade (Glires) is sister to Primates and Dermoptera, higher-level relationships within Rodentia remain contentious. Results We have sequenced and performed extensive evolutionary analyses on the mitochondrial genome of the scaly-tailed flying squirrel Anomalurus sp., an enigmatic rodent whose phylogenetic affinities have been obscure and extensively debated. Our phylogenetic analyses of the coding regions of available complete mitochondrial genome sequences from Euarchontoglires suggest that Anomalurus is a sister taxon to the Hystricognathi, and that this clade represents the most basal divergence among sampled Rodentia. Bayesian dating methods incorporating a relaxed molecular clock provide divergence-time estimates which are consistently in agreement with the fossil record and which indicate a rapid radiation within Glires around 60 million years ago. Conclusion Taken together, the data presented provide a working hypothesis as to the phylogenetic placement of Anomalurus, underline the utility of mitochondrial sequences in the resolution of even relatively deep divergences and go some way to explaining the difficulty of conclusively resolving higher-level relationships within Glires with available data and methodologies. PMID:17288612

Joint analysis of input and parametric uncertainties in watershed water quality modeling: A formal Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Feng; Zheng, Yi

2018-06-01

Significant Input uncertainty is a major source of error in watershed water quality (WWQ) modeling. It remains challenging to address the input uncertainty in a rigorous Bayesian framework. This study develops the Bayesian Analysis of Input and Parametric Uncertainties (BAIPU), an approach for the joint analysis of input and parametric uncertainties through a tight coupling of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). The formal likelihood function for this approach is derived considering a lag-1 autocorrelated, heteroscedastic, and Skew Exponential Power (SEP) distributed error model. A series of numerical experiments were performed based on a synthetic nitrate pollution case and on a real study case in the Newport Bay Watershed, California. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM(ZS)) were used as the representative WWQ model and MCMC algorithm, respectively. The major findings include the following: (1) the BAIPU can be implemented and used to appropriately identify the uncertain parameters and characterize the predictive uncertainty; (2) the compensation effect between the input and parametric uncertainties can seriously mislead the modeling based management decisions, if the input uncertainty is not explicitly accounted for; (3) the BAIPU accounts for the interaction between the input and parametric uncertainties and therefore provides more accurate calibration and uncertainty results than a sequential analysis of the uncertainties; and (4) the BAIPU quantifies the credibility of different input assumptions on a statistical basis and can be implemented as an effective inverse modeling approach to the joint inference of parameters and inputs.

Phylogenetic analysis of a transfusion-transmitted hepatitis A outbreak.

PubMed

Hettmann, Andrea; Juhász, Gabriella; Dencs, Ágnes; Tresó, Bálint; Rusvai, Erzsébet; Barabás, Éva; Takács, Mária

2017-02-01

A transfusion-associated hepatitis A outbreak was found in the first time in Hungary. The outbreak involved five cases. Parenteral transmission of hepatitis A is rare, but may occur during viraemia. Direct sequencing of nested PCR products was performed, and all the examined samples were identical in the VP1/2A region of the hepatitis A virus genome. HAV sequences found in recent years were compared and phylogenetic analysis showed that the strain which caused these cases is the same as that had spread in Hungary recently causing several hepatitis A outbreaks throughout the country.

Two C++ Libraries for Counting Trees on a Phylogenetic Terrace.

PubMed

Biczok, R; Bozsoky, P; Eisenmann, P; Ernst, J; Ribizel, T; Scholz, F; Trefzer, A; Weber, F; Hamann, M; Stamatakis, A

2018-05-08

The presence of terraces in phylogenetic tree space, that is, a potentially large number of distinct tree topologies that have exactly the same analytical likelihood score, was first described by Sanderson et al. (2011). However, popular software tools for maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic inference do not yet routinely report, if inferred phylogenies reside on a terrace, or not. We believe, this is due to the lack of an efficient library to (i) determine if a tree resides on a terrace, (ii) calculate how many trees reside on a terrace, and (iii) enumerate all trees on a terrace. In our bioinformatics practical that is set up as a programming contest we developed two efficient and independent C++ implementations of the SUPERB algorithm by Constantinescu and Sankoff (1995) for counting and enumerating trees on a terrace. Both implementations yield exactly the same results, are more than one order of magnitude faster, and require one order of magnitude less memory than a previous 3rd party python implementation. The source codes are available under GNU GPL at https://github.com/terraphast. Alexandros.Stamatakis@h-its.org. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

A Bayesian Approach to the Overlap Analysis of Epidemiologically Linked Traits.

PubMed

Asimit, Jennifer L; Panoutsopoulou, Kalliope; Wheeler, Eleanor; Berndt, Sonja I; Cordell, Heather J; Morris, Andrew P; Zeggini, Eleftheria; Barroso, Inês

2015-12-01

Diseases often cooccur in individuals more often than expected by chance, and may be explained by shared underlying genetic etiology. A common approach to genetic overlap analyses is to use summary genome-wide association study data to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with multiple traits at a selected P-value threshold. However, P-values do not account for differences in power, whereas Bayes' factors (BFs) do, and may be approximated using summary statistics. We use simulation studies to compare the power of frequentist and Bayesian approaches with overlap analyses, and to decide on appropriate thresholds for comparison between the two methods. It is empirically illustrated that BFs have the advantage over P-values of a decreasing type I error rate as study size increases for single-disease associations. Consequently, the overlap analysis of traits from different-sized studies encounters issues in fair P-value threshold selection, whereas BFs are adjusted automatically. Extensive simulations show that Bayesian overlap analyses tend to have higher power than those that assess association strength with P-values, particularly in low-power scenarios. Calibration tables between BFs and P-values are provided for a range of sample sizes, as well as an approximation approach for sample sizes that are not in the calibration table. Although P-values are sometimes thought more intuitive, these tables assist in removing the opaqueness of Bayesian thresholds and may also be used in the selection of a BF threshold to meet a certain type I error rate. An application of our methods is used to identify variants associated with both obesity and osteoarthritis. © 2015 The Authors. *Genetic Epidemiology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Bayesian analysis of factors associated with fibromyalgia syndrome subjects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayawardana, Veroni; Mondal, Sumona; Russek, Leslie

2015-01-01

Factors contributing to movement-related fear were assessed by Russek, et al. 2014 for subjects with Fibromyalgia (FM) based on the collected data by a national internet survey of community-based individuals. The study focused on the variables, Activities-Specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC), Primary Care Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder screen (PC-PTSD), Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia (TSK), a Joint Hypermobility Syndrome screen (JHS), Vertigo Symptom Scale (VSS-SF), Obsessive-Compulsive Personality Disorder (OCPD), Pain, work status and physical activity dependent from the "Revised Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire" (FIQR). The study presented in this paper revisits same data with a Bayesian analysis where appropriate priors were introduced for variables selected in the Russek's paper.

The Interrelationships of Placental Mammals and the Limits of Phylogenetic Inference.

PubMed

Tarver, James E; Dos Reis, Mario; Mirarab, Siavash; Moran, Raymond J; Parker, Sean; O'Reilly, Joseph E; King, Benjamin L; O'Connell, Mary J; Asher, Robert J; Warnow, Tandy; Peterson, Kevin J; Donoghue, Philip C J; Pisani, Davide

2016-01-05

Placental mammals comprise three principal clades: Afrotheria (e.g., elephants and tenrecs), Xenarthra (e.g., armadillos and sloths), and Boreoeutheria (all other placental mammals), the relationships among which are the subject of controversy and a touchstone for debate on the limits of phylogenetic inference. Previous analyses have found support for all three hypotheses, leading some to conclude that this phylogenetic problem might be impossible to resolve due to the compounded effects of incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) and a rapid radiation. Here we show, using a genome scale nucleotide data set, microRNAs, and the reanalysis of the three largest previously published amino acid data sets, that the root of Placentalia lies between Atlantogenata and Boreoeutheria. Although we found evidence for ILS in early placental evolution, we are able to reject previous conclusions that the placental root is a hard polytomy that cannot be resolved. Reanalyses of previous data sets recover Atlantogenata + Boreoeutheria and show that contradictory results are a consequence of poorly fitting evolutionary models; instead, when the evolutionary process is better-modeled, all data sets converge on Atlantogenata. Our Bayesian molecular clock analysis estimates that marsupials diverged from placentals 157-170 Ma, crown Placentalia diverged 86-100 Ma, and crown Atlantogenata diverged 84-97 Ma. Our results are compatible with placental diversification being driven by dispersal rather than vicariance mechanisms, postdating early phases in the protracted opening of the Atlantic Ocean. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Testing students' e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling.

PubMed

Salarzadeh Jenatabadi, Hashem; Moghavvemi, Sedigheh; Wan Mohamed Radzi, Che Wan Jasimah Bt; Babashamsi, Parastoo; Arashi, Mohammad

2017-01-01

Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students' intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data) were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods' results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated.

Testing students’ e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling

PubMed Central

Moghavvemi, Sedigheh; Wan Mohamed Radzi, Che Wan Jasimah Bt; Babashamsi, Parastoo; Arashi, Mohammad

2017-01-01

Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students’ intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data) were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods’ results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated. PMID:28886019

Prokaryotic diversity, composition structure, and phylogenetic analysis of microbial communities in leachate sediment ecosystems.

PubMed

Liu, Jingjing; Wu, Weixiang; Chen, Chongjun; Sun, Faqian; Chen, Yingxu

2011-09-01

In order to obtain insight into the prokaryotic diversity and community in leachate sediment, a culture-independent DNA-based molecular phylogenetic approach was performed with archaeal and bacterial 16S rRNA gene clone libraries derived from leachate sediment of an aged landfill. A total of 59 archaeal and 283 bacterial rDNA phylotypes were identified in 425 archaeal and 375 bacterial analyzed clones. All archaeal clones distributed within two archaeal phyla of the Euryarchaeota and Crenarchaeota, and well-defined methanogen lineages, especially Methanosaeta spp., are the most numerically dominant species of the archaeal community. Phylogenetic analysis of the bacterial library revealed a variety of pollutant-degrading and biotransforming microorganisms, including 18 distinct phyla. A substantial fraction of bacterial clones showed low levels of similarity with any previously documented sequences and thus might be taxonomically new. Chemical characteristics and phylogenetic inferences indicated that (1) ammonium-utilizing bacteria might form consortia to alleviate or avoid the negative influence of high ammonium concentration on other microorganisms, and (2) members of the Crenarchaeota found in the sediment might be involved in ammonium oxidation. This study is the first to report the composition of the microbial assemblages and phylogenetic characteristics of prokaryotic populations extant in leachate sediment. Additional work on microbial activity and contaminant biodegradation remains to be explored.

Australasian orchid biogeography at continental scale: molecular phylogenetic insights from the sun orchids (Thelymitra, Orchidaceae).

PubMed

Nauheimer, Lars; Schley, Rowan J; Clements, Mark A; Micheneau, Claire; Nargar, Katharina

2018-06-02

Australia harbours a rich and highly endemic orchid flora, with c. 90 % of species endemic to the country. Despite that, the biogeographic history of Australasian orchid lineages is only poorly understood. Here we examined evolutionary relationships and the spatio-temporal evolution of the sun orchids (Thelymitra, 119 species), which display disjunct distribution patterns frequently found in Australasian orchid lineages. Phylogenetic analyses were conducted based on one nuclear (ITS) and three plastid markers (matK, psbJ-petA, ycf1) using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian inference. Divergence time estimations were carried out with a relaxed molecular clock in a Bayesian framework. Ancestral ranges were estimated using the dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis model and an area coding based on major disjunctions. The phylogenetic analyses clarified intergeneric relationships within Thelymitrinae, with Epiblema being sister to Thelymitra plus Calochilus, both of which were well-supported. Within Thelymitra, eight major and several minor clades were retrieved in the nuclear and plastid phylogenetic reconstructions. Five major clades corresponded to species complexes previously recognized based on morphological characters, whereas other previously recognized species groups were found to be paraphyletic. Conflicting signals between the nuclear and plastid phylogenetic reconstructions provided support for hybridization and plastid capture events both in the deeper evolutionary history of the genus and more recently. Divergence time estimation placed the origin of Thelymitra in the late Miocene (c. 10.8 Ma) and the origin of the majority of the main clades within Thelymitra during the late Pliocene and early Pleistocene, with the majority of extant species arising during the Pleistocene. Ancestral range reconstruction revealed that the early diversification of the genus in the late Miocene and Pliocene took place predominantly in southwest Australia, where most species with

[Bayesian statistics in medicine -- part II: main applications and inference].

PubMed

Montomoli, C; Nichelatti, M

2008-01-01

Bayesian statistics is not only used when one is dealing with 2-way tables, but it can be used for inferential purposes. Using the basic concepts presented in the first part, this paper aims to give a simple overview of Bayesian methods by introducing its foundation (Bayes' theorem) and then applying this rule to a very simple practical example; whenever possible, the elementary processes at the basis of analysis are compared to those of frequentist (classical) statistical analysis. The Bayesian reasoning is naturally connected to medical activity, since it appears to be quite similar to a diagnostic process.

Incompletely resolved phylogenetic trees inflate estimates of phylogenetic conservatism.

PubMed

Davies, T Jonathan; Kraft, Nathan J B; Salamin, Nicolas; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M

2012-02-01

The tendency for more closely related species to share similar traits and ecological strategies can be explained by their longer shared evolutionary histories and represents phylogenetic conservatism. How strongly species traits co-vary with phylogeny can significantly impact how we analyze cross-species data and can influence our interpretation of assembly rules in the rapidly expanding field of community phylogenetics. Phylogenetic conservatism is typically quantified by analyzing the distribution of species values on the phylogenetic tree that connects them. Many phylogenetic approaches, however, assume a completely sampled phylogeny: while we have good estimates of deeper phylogenetic relationships for many species-rich groups, such as birds and flowering plants, we often lack information on more recent interspecific relationships (i.e., within a genus). A common solution has been to represent these relationships as polytomies on trees using taxonomy as a guide. Here we show that such trees can dramatically inflate estimates of phylogenetic conservatism quantified using S. P. Blomberg et al.'s K statistic. Using simulations, we show that even randomly generated traits can appear to be phylogenetically conserved on poorly resolved trees. We provide a simple rarefaction-based solution that can reliably retrieve unbiased estimates of K, and we illustrate our method using data on first flowering times from Thoreau's woods (Concord, Massachusetts, USA).

The Bayesian approach to reporting GSR analysis results: some first-hand experiences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charles, Sebastien; Nys, Bart

2010-06-01

The use of Bayesian principles in the reporting of forensic findings has been a matter of interest for some years. Recently, also the GSR community is gradually exploring the advantages of this method, or rather approach, for writing reports. Since last year, our GSR group is adapting reporting procedures to the use of Bayesian principles. The police and magistrates find the reports more directly accessible and useful in their part of the criminal investigation. In the lab we find that, through applying the Bayesian principles, unnecessary analyses can be eliminated and thus time can be freed on the instruments.

Bayesian inference of the number of factors in gene-expression analysis: application to human virus challenge studies

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Nonparametric Bayesian techniques have been developed recently to extend the sophistication of factor models, allowing one to infer the number of appropriate factors from the observed data. We consider such techniques for sparse factor analysis, with application to gene-expression data from three virus challenge studies. Particular attention is placed on employing the Beta Process (BP), the Indian Buffet Process (IBP), and related sparseness-promoting techniques to infer a proper number of factors. The posterior density function on the model parameters is computed using Gibbs sampling and variational Bayesian (VB) analysis. Results Time-evolving gene-expression data are considered for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Rhino virus, and influenza, using blood samples from healthy human subjects. These data were acquired in three challenge studies, each executed after receiving institutional review board (IRB) approval from Duke University. Comparisons are made between several alternative means of per-forming nonparametric factor analysis on these data, with comparisons as well to sparse-PCA and Penalized Matrix Decomposition (PMD), closely related non-Bayesian approaches. Conclusions Applying the Beta Process to the factor scores, or to the singular values of a pseudo-SVD construction, the proposed algorithms infer the number of factors in gene-expression data. For real data the "true" number of factors is unknown; in our simulations we consider a range of noise variances, and the proposed Bayesian models inferred the number of factors accurately relative to other methods in the literature, such as sparse-PCA and PMD. We have also identified a "pan-viral" factor of importance for each of the three viruses considered in this study. We have identified a set of genes associated with this pan-viral factor, of interest for early detection of such viruses based upon the host response, as quantified via gene-expression data. PMID:21062443

Bayesian inference of the number of factors in gene-expression analysis: application to human virus challenge studies.

PubMed

Chen, Bo; Chen, Minhua; Paisley, John; Zaas, Aimee; Woods, Christopher; Ginsburg, Geoffrey S; Hero, Alfred; Lucas, Joseph; Dunson, David; Carin, Lawrence

2010-11-09

Nonparametric Bayesian techniques have been developed recently to extend the sophistication of factor models, allowing one to infer the number of appropriate factors from the observed data. We consider such techniques for sparse factor analysis, with application to gene-expression data from three virus challenge studies. Particular attention is placed on employing the Beta Process (BP), the Indian Buffet Process (IBP), and related sparseness-promoting techniques to infer a proper number of factors. The posterior density function on the model parameters is computed using Gibbs sampling and variational Bayesian (VB) analysis. Time-evolving gene-expression data are considered for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Rhino virus, and influenza, using blood samples from healthy human subjects. These data were acquired in three challenge studies, each executed after receiving institutional review board (IRB) approval from Duke University. Comparisons are made between several alternative means of per-forming nonparametric factor analysis on these data, with comparisons as well to sparse-PCA and Penalized Matrix Decomposition (PMD), closely related non-Bayesian approaches. Applying the Beta Process to the factor scores, or to the singular values of a pseudo-SVD construction, the proposed algorithms infer the number of factors in gene-expression data. For real data the "true" number of factors is unknown; in our simulations we consider a range of noise variances, and the proposed Bayesian models inferred the number of factors accurately relative to other methods in the literature, such as sparse-PCA and PMD. We have also identified a "pan-viral" factor of importance for each of the three viruses considered in this study. We have identified a set of genes associated with this pan-viral factor, of interest for early detection of such viruses based upon the host response, as quantified via gene-expression data.

Missing Data and Influential Sites: Choice of Sites for Phylogenetic Analysis Can Be As Important As Taxon Sampling and Model Choice

PubMed Central

Shavit Grievink, Liat; Penny, David; Holland, Barbara R.

2013-01-01

Phylogenetic studies based on molecular sequence alignments are expected to become more accurate as the number of sites in the alignments increases. With the advent of genomic-scale data, where alignments have very large numbers of sites, bootstrap values close to 100% and posterior probabilities close to 1 are the norm, suggesting that the number of sites is now seldom a limiting factor on phylogenetic accuracy. This provokes the question, should we be fussy about the sites we choose to include in a genomic-scale phylogenetic analysis? If some sites contain missing data, ambiguous character states, or gaps, then why not just throw them away before conducting the phylogenetic analysis? Indeed, this is exactly the approach taken in many phylogenetic studies. Here, we present an example where the decision on how to treat sites with missing data is of equal importance to decisions on taxon sampling and model choice, and we introduce a graphical method for illustrating this. PMID:23471508

Bayesian just-so stories in psychology and neuroscience.

PubMed

Bowers, Jeffrey S; Davis, Colin J

2012-05-01

According to Bayesian theories in psychology and neuroscience, minds and brains are (near) optimal in solving a wide range of tasks. We challenge this view and argue that more traditional, non-Bayesian approaches are more promising. We make 3 main arguments. First, we show that the empirical evidence for Bayesian theories in psychology is weak. This weakness relates to the many arbitrary ways that priors, likelihoods, and utility functions can be altered in order to account for the data that are obtained, making the models unfalsifiable. It further relates to the fact that Bayesian theories are rarely better at predicting data compared with alternative (and simpler) non-Bayesian theories. Second, we show that the empirical evidence for Bayesian theories in neuroscience is weaker still. There are impressive mathematical analyses showing how populations of neurons could compute in a Bayesian manner but little or no evidence that they do. Third, we challenge the general scientific approach that characterizes Bayesian theorizing in cognitive science. A common premise is that theories in psychology should largely be constrained by a rational analysis of what the mind ought to do. We question this claim and argue that many of the important constraints come from biological, evolutionary, and processing (algorithmic) considerations that have no adaptive relevance to the problem per se. In our view, these factors have contributed to the development of many Bayesian "just so" stories in psychology and neuroscience; that is, mathematical analyses of cognition that can be used to explain almost any behavior as optimal. 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Multivariate Copula Analysis Toolbox (MvCAT): Describing dependence and underlying uncertainty using a Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadegh, Mojtaba; Ragno, Elisa; AghaKouchak, Amir

2017-06-01

We present a newly developed Multivariate Copula Analysis Toolbox (MvCAT) which includes a wide range of copula families with different levels of complexity. MvCAT employs a Bayesian framework with a residual-based Gaussian likelihood function for inferring copula parameters and estimating the underlying uncertainties. The contribution of this paper is threefold: (a) providing a Bayesian framework to approximate the predictive uncertainties of fitted copulas, (b) introducing a hybrid-evolution Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach designed for numerical estimation of the posterior distribution of copula parameters, and (c) enabling the community to explore a wide range of copulas and evaluate them relative to the fitting uncertainties. We show that the commonly used local optimization methods for copula parameter estimation often get trapped in local minima. The proposed method, however, addresses this limitation and improves describing the dependence structure. MvCAT also enables evaluation of uncertainties relative to the length of record, which is fundamental to a wide range of applications such as multivariate frequency analysis.

Symbiosis between hydra and chlorella: molecular phylogenetic analysis and experimental study provide insight into its origin and evolution.

PubMed

Kawaida, Hitomi; Ohba, Kohki; Koutake, Yuhki; Shimizu, Hiroshi; Tachida, Hidenori; Kobayakawa, Yoshitaka

2013-03-01

Although many physiological studies have been reported on the symbiosis between hydra and green algae, very little information from a molecular phylogenetic aspect of symbiosis is available. In order to understand the origin and evolution of symbiosis between the two organisms, we compared the phylogenetic relationships among symbiotic green algae with the phylogenetic relationships among host hydra strains. To do so, we reconstructed molecular phylogenetic trees of several strains of symbiotic chlorella harbored in the endodermal epithelial cells of viridissima group hydra strains and investigated their congruence with the molecular phylogenetic trees of the host hydra strains. To examine the species specificity between the host and the symbiont with respect to the genetic distance, we also tried to introduce chlorella strains into two aposymbiotic strains of viridissima group hydra in which symbiotic chlorella had been eliminated in advance. We discussed the origin and history of symbiosis between hydra and green algae based on the analysis. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Data-Model Fit Assessment for Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levy, Roy

2011-01-01

Bayesian approaches to modeling are receiving an increasing amount of attention in the areas of model construction and estimation in factor analysis, structural equation modeling (SEM), and related latent variable models. However, model diagnostics and model criticism remain relatively understudied aspects of Bayesian SEM. This article describes…

Integrated Data Analysis for Fusion: A Bayesian Tutorial for Fusion Diagnosticians

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinklage, Andreas; Dreier, Heiko; Fischer, Rainer; Gori, Silvio; Preuss, Roland; Toussaint, Udo von

2008-03-01

Integrated Data Analysis (IDA) offers a unified way of combining information relevant to fusion experiments. Thereby, IDA meets with typical issues arising in fusion data analysis. In IDA, all information is consistently formulated as probability density functions quantifying uncertainties in the analysis within the Bayesian probability theory. For a single diagnostic, IDA allows the identification of faulty measurements and improvements in the setup. For a set of diagnostics, IDA gives joint error distributions allowing the comparison and integration of different diagnostics results. Validation of physics models can be performed by model comparison techniques. Typical data analysis applications benefit from IDA capabilities of nonlinear error propagation, the inclusion of systematic effects and the comparison of different physics models. Applications range from outlier detection, background discrimination, model assessment and design of diagnostics. In order to cope with next step fusion device requirements, appropriate techniques are explored for fast analysis applications.

The Evolutionary Ecology of Plant Disease: A Phylogenetic Perspective.

PubMed

Gilbert, Gregory S; Parker, Ingrid M

2016-08-04

An explicit phylogenetic perspective provides useful tools for phytopathology and plant disease ecology because the traits of both plants and microbes are shaped by their evolutionary histories. We present brief primers on phylogenetic signal and the analytical tools of phylogenetic ecology. We review the literature and find abundant evidence of phylogenetic signal in pathogens and plants for most traits involved in disease interactions. Plant nonhost resistance mechanisms and pathogen housekeeping functions are conserved at deeper phylogenetic levels, whereas molecular traits associated with rapid coevolutionary dynamics are more labile at branch tips. Horizontal gene transfer disrupts the phylogenetic signal for some microbial traits. Emergent traits, such as host range and disease severity, show clear phylogenetic signals. Therefore pathogen spread and disease impact are influenced by the phylogenetic structure of host assemblages. Phylogenetically rare species escape disease pressure. Phylogenetic tools could be used to develop predictive tools for phytosanitary risk analysis and reduce disease pressure in multispecies cropping systems.

Phylogenetics of Anthyllis (Leguminosae: Papilionoideae: Loteae): Partial incongruence between nuclear and plastid markers, a long branch problem and implications for morphological evolution.

PubMed

Degtjareva, Galina V; Valiejo-Roman, Carmen M; Samigullin, Tahir H; Guara-Requena, Miguel; Sokoloff, Dmitry D

2012-02-01

Phylogenetic relationships in the genus Anthyllis (Leguminosae: Papilionoideae: Loteae) were investigated using data from the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer regions (ITS) and three plastid regions (psbA-trnH intergenic spacer, petB-petD region and rps16 intron). Bayesian and maximum parsimony (MP) analysis of a concatenated plastid dataset recovered well-resolved trees that are topologically similar, with many clades supported by unique indels. MP and Bayesian analyses of the ITS sequence data recovered trees that have several well-supported topological differences, both among analyses, and to trees inferred from the plastid data. The most substantial of these concerns A. vulneraria and A. lemanniana, whose placement in the parsimony analysis of the ITS data appears to be due to a strong long-branch effect. Analysis of the secondary structure of the ITS1 spacer showed a strong bias towards transitions in A. vulneraria and A. lemanniana, many of which were also characteristic of certain outgroup taxa. This may contribute to the conflicting placement of this clade in the MP tree for the ITS data. Additional conflicts between the plastid and ITS trees were more taxonomically focused. These differences may reflect the occurrence of reticulate evolution between closely related species, including a possible hybrid origin for A. hystrix. The patterns of incongruence between the plastid and the ITS data seem to correlate with taxon ranks. All of our phylogenetic analyses supported the monophyly of Anthyllis (incl. Hymenocarpos). Although they are often taxonomically associated with Anthyllis, the genera Dorycnopsis and Tripodion are shown here to be more closely related to other genera of Loteae. We infer up to six major clades in Anthyllis that are morphologically well-characterized, and which could be recognized as sections. Four of these agree with various morphology-based classifications, while the other two are novel. We reconstruct the evolution of

Bayesian Probability Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

2014-06-01

Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

Phylogenetic Relationships and Species Delimitation in Pinus Section Trifoliae Inferrred from Plastid DNA

PubMed Central

Hernández-León, Sergio; Gernandt, David S.; Pérez de la Rosa, Jorge A.; Jardón-Barbolla, Lev

2013-01-01

Recent diversification followed by secondary contact and hybridization may explain complex patterns of intra- and interspecific morphological and genetic variation in the North American hard pines (Pinus section Trifoliae), a group of approximately 49 tree species distributed in North and Central America and the Caribbean islands. We concatenated five plastid DNA markers for an average of 3.9 individuals per putative species and assessed the suitability of the five regions as DNA bar codes for species identification, species delimitation, and phylogenetic reconstruction. The ycf1 gene accounted for the greatest proportion of the alignment (46.9%), the greatest proportion of variable sites (74.9%), and the most unique sequences (75 haplotypes). Phylogenetic analysis recovered clades corresponding to subsections Australes, Contortae, and Ponderosae. Sequences for 23 of the 49 species were monophyletic and sequences for another 9 species were paraphyletic. Morphologically similar species within subsections usually grouped together, but there were exceptions consistent with incomplete lineage sorting or introgression. Bayesian relaxed molecular clock analyses indicated that all three subsections diversified relatively recently during the Miocene. The general mixed Yule-coalescent method gave a mixed model estimate of only 22 or 23 evolutionary entities for the plastid sequences, which corresponds to less than half the 49 species recognized based on morphological species assignments. Including more unique haplotypes per species may result in higher estimates, but low mutation rates, recent diversification, and large effective population sizes may limit the effectiveness of this method to detect evolutionary entities. PMID:23936218

Phylogenetic relationships and species delimitation in pinus section trifoliae inferrred from plastid DNA.

PubMed

Hernández-León, Sergio; Gernandt, David S; Pérez de la Rosa, Jorge A; Jardón-Barbolla, Lev

2013-01-01

Recent diversification followed by secondary contact and hybridization may explain complex patterns of intra- and interspecific morphological and genetic variation in the North American hard pines (Pinus section Trifoliae), a group of approximately 49 tree species distributed in North and Central America and the Caribbean islands. We concatenated five plastid DNA markers for an average of 3.9 individuals per putative species and assessed the suitability of the five regions as DNA bar codes for species identification, species delimitation, and phylogenetic reconstruction. The ycf1 gene accounted for the greatest proportion of the alignment (46.9%), the greatest proportion of variable sites (74.9%), and the most unique sequences (75 haplotypes). Phylogenetic analysis recovered clades corresponding to subsections Australes, Contortae, and Ponderosae. Sequences for 23 of the 49 species were monophyletic and sequences for another 9 species were paraphyletic. Morphologically similar species within subsections usually grouped together, but there were exceptions consistent with incomplete lineage sorting or introgression. Bayesian relaxed molecular clock analyses indicated that all three subsections diversified relatively recently during the Miocene. The general mixed Yule-coalescent method gave a mixed model estimate of only 22 or 23 evolutionary entities for the plastid sequences, which corresponds to less than half the 49 species recognized based on morphological species assignments. Including more unique haplotypes per species may result in higher estimates, but low mutation rates, recent diversification, and large effective population sizes may limit the effectiveness of this method to detect evolutionary entities.

Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

2009-01-01

This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

First complete female mitochondrial genome in four bivalve species genus Donax and their phylogenetic relationships within the Veneroida order

PubMed Central

Nantón, Ana; Ruiz-Ruano, Francisco J.; Camacho, Juan Pedro M.; Méndez, Josefina

2017-01-01

Background Four species of the genus Donax (D. semistriatus, D. trunculus, D. variegatus and D. vittatus) are common on Iberian Peninsula coasts. Nevertheless, despite their economic importance and overexploitation, scarce genetic resources are available. In this work, we newly determined the complete mitochondrial genomes of these four representatives of the family Donacidae, with the aim of contributing to unveil phylogenetic relationships within the Veneroida order, and of developing genetic markers being useful in wedge clam identification and authentication, and aquaculture stock management. Principal findings The complete female mitochondrial genomes of the four species vary in size from 17,044 to 17,365 bp, and encode 13 protein-coding genes (including the atp8 gene), 2 rRNAs and 22 tRNAs, all located on the same strand. A long non-coding region was identified in each of the four Donax species between cob and cox2 genes, presumably corresponding to the Control Region. The Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic analysis of the Veneroida order indicate that all four species of Donax form a single clade as a sister group of other bivalves within the Tellinoidea superfamily. However, although Tellinoidea is actually monophyletic, none of its families are monophyletic. Conclusions Sequencing of complete mitochondrial genomes provides highly valuable information to establish the phylogenetic relationships within the Veneroida order. Furthermore, we provide here significant genetic resources for further research and conservation of this commercially important fishing resource. PMID:28886105

Phylogenetic analysis of rubella viruses in Vietnam during 2009-2010.

PubMed

Tran, Dinh Nguyen; Pham, Ngan Thi Kim; Tran, Thi Thuy Trinh; Khamrin, Pattara; Thongprachum, Aksara; Komase, Katsuhiro; Hayakawa, Satoshi; Mizuguchi, Masashi; Ushijima, Hiroshi

2012-04-01

Rubella virus (RV) usually causes a mild disease. However, infection during the first trimester of pregnancy often leads to severe birth defects known as congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). Although wild-type RVs exist and circulate worldwide, their genotypes remain unknown in many countries. The aim of this study was to identify the molecular characteristics of RVs found in Vietnam during the years 2009-2010 and to provide the first data concerning RV genotypes in this country. Throat swab samples were collected between 2009 and 2010 from four CRS cases and nine rubella infection cases visiting one Children's Hospital and one outpatient clinic in Ho Chi Minh City. The 739-nucleotide coding region of the RV E1 gene recommended by the World Health Organization was amplified by reverse transcriptase PCR, and the resulting DNA fragments were then sequenced. Sequences were assigned to genotypes by phylogenetic analysis with RV reference strains. RV RNA was detected in 11 clinical specimens. Phylogenetic analysis of the sequences showed that all 11 strains belonged to 2B genotype. Several variations in amino acids were found, among which five changes were involved in the B and T cell epitopes. These data indicate that viruses of genotype 2B were circulating in Vietnam. The increasing information about RV genotype in Vietnam should aid in the control of rubella infection and CRS in this country. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Rational hypocrisy: a Bayesian analysis based on informal argumentation and slippery slopes.

PubMed

Rai, Tage S; Holyoak, Keith J

2014-01-01

Moral hypocrisy is typically viewed as an ethical accusation: Someone is applying different moral standards to essentially identical cases, dishonestly claiming that one action is acceptable while otherwise equivalent actions are not. We suggest that in some instances the apparent logical inconsistency stems from different evaluations of a weak argument, rather than dishonesty per se. Extending Corner, Hahn, and Oaksford's (2006) analysis of slippery slope arguments, we develop a Bayesian framework in which accusations of hypocrisy depend on inferences of shared category membership between proposed actions and previous standards, based on prior probabilities that inform the strength of competing hypotheses. Across three experiments, we demonstrate that inferences of hypocrisy increase as perceptions of the likelihood of shared category membership between precedent cases and current cases increase, that these inferences follow established principles of category induction, and that the presence of self-serving motives increases inferences of hypocrisy independent of changes in the actions themselves. Taken together, these results demonstrate that Bayesian analyses of weak arguments may have implications for assessing moral reasoning. © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Phylogenetic Relationships of American Willows (Salix L., Salicaceae)

PubMed Central

Lauron-Moreau, Aurélien; Pitre, Frédéric E.; Argus, George W.; Labrecque, Michel; Brouillet, Luc

2015-01-01

Salix L. is the largest genus in the family Salicaceae (450 species). Several classifications have been published, but taxonomic subdivision has been under continuous revision. Our goal is to establish the phylogenetic structure of the genus using molecular data on all American willows, using three DNA markers. This complete phylogeny of American willows allows us to propose a biogeographic framework for the evolution of the genus. Material was obtained for the 122 native and introduced willow species of America. Sequences were obtained from the ITS (ribosomal nuclear DNA) and two plastid regions, matK and rbcL. Phylogenetic analyses (parsimony, maximum likelihood, Bayesian inference) were performed on the data. Geographic distribution was mapped onto the tree. The species tree provides strong support for a division of the genus into two subgenera, Salix and Vetrix. Subgenus Salix comprises temperate species from the Americas and Asia, and their disjunction may result from Tertiary events. Subgenus Vetrix is composed of boreo-arctic species of the Northern Hemisphere and their radiation may coincide with the Quaternary glaciations. Sixteen species have ambiguous positions; genetic diversity is lower in subg. Vetrix. A molecular phylogeny of all species of American willows has been inferred. It needs to be tested and further resolved using other molecular data. Nonetheless, the genus clearly has two clades that have distinct biogeographic patterns. PMID:25880993

BATSE gamma-ray burst line search. 2: Bayesian consistency methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Band, D. L.; Ford, L. A.; Matteson, J. L.; Briggs, M.; Paciesas, W.; Pendleton, G.; Preece, R.; Palmer, D.; Teegarden, B.; Schaefer, B.

1994-01-01

We describe a Bayesian methodology to evaluate the consistency between the reported Ginga and Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) detections of absorption features in gamma-ray burst spectra. Currently no features have been detected by BATSE, but this methodology will still be applicable if and when such features are discovered. The Bayesian methodology permits the comparison of hypotheses regarding the two detectors' observations and makes explicit the subjective aspects of our analysis (e.g., the quantification of our confidence in detector performance). We also present non-Bayesian consistency statistics. Based on preliminary calculations of line detectability, we find that both the Bayesian and non-Bayesian techniques show that the BATSE and Ginga observations are consistent given our understanding of these detectors.

Estimating phylogenetic trees from genome-scale data.

PubMed

Liu, Liang; Xi, Zhenxiang; Wu, Shaoyuan; Davis, Charles C; Edwards, Scott V

2015-12-01

The heterogeneity of signals in the genomes of diverse organisms poses challenges for traditional phylogenetic analysis. Phylogenetic methods known as "species tree" methods have been proposed to directly address one important source of gene tree heterogeneity, namely the incomplete lineage sorting that occurs when evolving lineages radiate rapidly, resulting in a diversity of gene trees from a single underlying species tree. Here we review theory and empirical examples that help clarify conflicts between species tree and concatenation methods, and misconceptions in the literature about the performance of species tree methods. Considering concatenation as a special case of the multispecies coalescent model helps explain differences in the behavior of the two methods on phylogenomic data sets. Recent work suggests that species tree methods are more robust than concatenation approaches to some of the classic challenges of phylogenetic analysis, including rapidly evolving sites in DNA sequences and long-branch attraction. We show that approaches, such as binning, designed to augment the signal in species tree analyses can distort the distribution of gene trees and are inconsistent. Computationally efficient species tree methods incorporating biological realism are a key to phylogenetic analysis of whole-genome data. © 2015 New York Academy of Sciences.

New phiomorph rodents from the latest Eocene of Egypt, and the impact of Bayesian "clock"-based phylogenetic methods on estimates of basal hystricognath relationships and biochronology.

PubMed

Sallam, Hesham M; Seiffert, Erik R

2016-01-01

The Fayum Depression of Egypt has yielded fossils of hystricognathous rodents from multiple Eocene and Oligocene horizons that range in age from ∼37 to ∼30 Ma and document several phases in the early evolution of crown Hystricognathi and one of its major subclades, Phiomorpha. Here we describe two new genera and species of basal phiomorphs, Birkamys korai and Mubhammys vadumensis, based on rostra and maxillary and mandibular remains from the terminal Eocene (∼34 Ma) Fayum Locality 41 (L-41). Birkamys is the smallest known Paleogene hystricognath, has very simple molars, and, like derived Oligocene-to-Recent phiomorphs (but unlike contemporaneous and older taxa) apparently retained dP(4)∕4 late into life, with no evidence for P(4)∕4 eruption or formation. Mubhammys is very similar in dental morphology to Birkamys, and also shows no evidence for P(4)∕4 formation or eruption, but is considerably larger. Though parsimony analysis with all characters equally weighted places Birkamys and Mubhammys as sister taxa of extant Thryonomys to the exclusion of much younger relatives of that genus, all other methods (standard Bayesian inference, Bayesian "tip-dating," and parsimony analysis with scaled transitions between "fixed" and polymorphic states) place these species in more basal positions within Hystricognathi, as sister taxa of Oligocene-to-Recent phiomorphs. We also employ tip-dating as a means for estimating the ages of early hystricognath-bearing localities, many of which are not well-constrained by geological, geochronological, or biostratigraphic evidence. By simultaneously taking into account phylogeny, evolutionary rates, and uniform priors that appropriately encompass the range of possible ages for fossil localities, dating of tips in this Bayesian framework allows paleontologists to move beyond vague and assumption-laden "stage of evolution" arguments in biochronology to provide relatively rigorous age assessments of poorly-constrained faunas. This

Hyainailourine and teratodontine cranial material from the late Eocene of Egypt and the application of parsimony and Bayesian methods to the phylogeny and biogeography of Hyaenodonta (Placentalia, Mammalia)

PubMed Central

Seiffert, Erik R.

2016-01-01

Hyaenodonta is a diverse, extinct group of carnivorous mammals that included weasel- to rhinoceros-sized species. The oldest-known hyaenodont fossils are from the middle Paleocene of North Africa and the antiquity of the group in Afro-Arabia led to the hypothesis that it originated there and dispersed to Asia, Europe, and North America. Here we describe two new hyaenodont species based on the oldest hyaenodont cranial specimens known from Afro-Arabia. The material was collected from the latest Eocene Locality 41 (L-41, ∼34 Ma) in the Fayum Depression, Egypt. Akhnatenavus nefertiticyon sp. nov. has specialized, hypercarnivorous molars and an elongate cranial vault. In A. nefertiticyon the tallest, piercing cusp on M1–M2 is the paracone. Brychotherium ephalmos gen. et sp. nov. has more generalized molars that retain the metacone and complex talonids. In B. ephalmos the tallest, piercing cusp on M1–M2 is the metacone. We incorporate this new material into a series of phylogenetic analyses using a character-taxon matrix that includes novel dental, cranial, and postcranial characters, and samples extensively from the global record of the group. The phylogenetic analysis includes the first application of Bayesian methods to hyaenodont relationships. B. ephalmos is consistently placed within Teratodontinae, an Afro-Arabian clade with several generalist and hypercarnivorous forms, and Akhnatenavus is consistently recovered in Hyainailourinae as part of an Afro-Arabian radiation. The phylogenetic results suggest that hypercarnivory evolved independently three times within Hyaenodonta: in Teratodontinae, in Hyainailourinae, and in Hyaenodontinae. Teratodontines are consistently placed in a close relationship with Hyainailouridae (Hyainailourinae + Apterodontinae) to the exclusion of “proviverrines,” hyaenodontines, and several North American clades, and we propose that the superfamily Hyainailouroidea be used to describe this relationship. Using the topologies

Nuclear introns outperform mitochondrial DNA in inter-specific phylogenetic reconstruction: Lessons from horseshoe bats (Rhinolophidae: Chiroptera).

PubMed

Dool, Serena E; Puechmaille, Sebastien J; Foley, Nicole M; Allegrini, Benjamin; Bastian, Anna; Mutumi, Gregory L; Maluleke, Tinyiko G; Odendaal, Lizelle J; Teeling, Emma C; Jacobs, David S

2016-04-01

Despite many studies illustrating the perils of utilising mitochondrial DNA in phylogenetic studies, it remains one of the most widely used genetic markers for this purpose. Over the last decade, nuclear introns have been proposed as alternative markers for phylogenetic reconstruction. However, the resolution capabilities of mtDNA and nuclear introns have rarely been quantified and compared. In the current study we generated a novel ∼5kb dataset comprising six nuclear introns and a mtDNA fragment. We assessed the relative resolution capabilities of the six intronic fragments with respect to each other, when used in various combinations together, and when compared to the traditionally used mtDNA. We focused on a major clade in the horseshoe bat family (Afro-Palaearctic clade; Rhinolophidae) as our case study. This old, widely distributed and speciose group contains a high level of conserved morphology. This morphological stasis renders the reconstruction of the phylogeny of this group with traditional morphological characters complex. We sampled multiple individuals per species to represent their geographic distributions as best as possible (122 individuals, 24 species, 68 localities). We reconstructed the species phylogeny using several complementary methods (partitioned Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian and Bayesian multispecies-coalescent) and made inferences based on consensus across these methods. We computed pairwise comparisons based on Robinson-Foulds tree distance metric between all Bayesian topologies generated (27,000) for every gene(s) and visualised the tree space using multidimensional scaling (MDS) plots. Using our supported species phylogeny we estimated the ancestral state of key traits of interest within this group, e.g. echolocation peak frequency which has been implicated in speciation. Our results revealed many potential cryptic species within this group, even in taxa where this was not suspected a priori and also found evidence for mt

Bayesian Posterior Odds Ratios: Statistical Tools for Collaborative Evaluations