Quasar Variability - Selection of and Physics in Quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schmidt, Kasper B.; Rix, H.
2012-01-01
Quasars vary intrinsically by 10% over timescales of year(s). This variability has the potential of becoming an extremely powerful tool for quasar identification in the near future due to present (the Panoramic Survey Telescope & Rapid Response System 1; Pan-STARRS1) and future (the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope; LSST) wide-area multi-epoch surveys. Describing the variability of more than 9000 quasars from SDSS Stripe 82, the largest variability sample of quasars to date, by a power-law structure function we have illustrated how samples of quasar candidates with completeness and purity well above 90% is straightforwardly obtained. Applying our variability selection algorithm to data without u-band photometry that is crucial in color selection, as is the case for Pan-STARRS1 data, shows that variability selection of quasars is still capable of selecting complete and pure quasar candidate samples. Variability selection of quasars out-performs the usual color selection at redshifts where quasars have the same colors as stars. We find that at z 2.7 variability selection of quasars is up to 10 times more effective than color selection. Not only does the intrinsic quasar variability aid in quasar selection, it also contains vital information about the quasar/AGN accretion disk physics, which still has to be fully understood. Through robust fitting, including outlier pruning, we determined the color variability of the 9000 Stripe 82 quasars, i.e., the change of quasar color as their brightness changes on year time-scales. We found a strong redshift dependence of this color variability and showed that it is caused by the quasar's emission lines. Furthermore, we found that the characteristic color variability of the individual quasars is substantially stronger than the change of mean quasar color with L/Ledd, implying that changes in the overall accretion rate cannot explain the observed color variability.
Exploring the Quasar Luminosity Function with Quasars Selected by both Color and Variability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peters, Christina M.; Richards, Gordon T.
2016-01-01
Using a Bayesian selection algorithm, we determine the optimal combination of color and variability information to identify quasars in current and future multi-epoch optical surveys. The color analysis is based on SDSS photometry, and the variability parameters are calculated from power-law fits to the structure functions. Simultaneous color and variability classification improves classification over either color or variability selection alone, with particular improvement in the selection of quasars with colors similar to stars. This method identifies 22,867 new type 1 quasar candidates in SDSS Stripe 82, which can be combined with the WISE and SDSS photometric quasar candidate catalogs. The redshifts of the candidate quasars were estimated using all available bands, weighting each band by smoothing the PDF. We show how to correct the candidate quasar luminosity function (QLF) for the completeness fraction and systematic errors in redshifts. The corrected QLF is comparable to those determined by spectroscopic investigations, suggesting that LSST and other next-generation surveys will be able to accurately determine the QLF in the absence of spectra. Finally, the quasars are divided into high and low Eddington fractions, using delta(g-i) and CIV blueshift as proxies. The candidate QLFs for the two populations are compared to look for changes as a function of redshift. This work was supported in part by NSF grant 1411773.
Optical+NIR Quasar Selection with the SDSS and UKIDSS
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mehta, Sajjan S.; Mahon, R. G.; Richards, G. T.; Hewett, P. C.
2010-01-01
We present the details of an optical+near-IR quasar selection technique, which utilizes near-IR data from the UKIDSS Large Area Survey and the optical data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey in the SDSS's deep "Stripe 82" region, which covers over 200 deg2. Our selection methods primarily consist of isolating potential candidates in giK and gJK color space, in which there exists a significant separation of the stellar locus from the quasar locus. Additionally, we discuss secondary techniques such as comparison of catalog magnitudes with aperture photometry, analysis of SDSS and UKIDSS morphological type classifications, and flag cuts. Our primary color-cut selections include most quasars with redshifts below 3.4, significantly increasing the completeness both to dust reddened quasars and quasars with redshifts z 2.7 in the SDSS footprint. A simple color cut in the UKIDSS LAS Stripe 82 regions reveals 4200 quasar candidates down to K=18. These NIR selections have been used to contribute to the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS), which is one of the four surveys of the SDSS-III collaboration. We additionally intend to use our NIR techniques to perform an 8-dimensional optical+NIR Bayesian selection of quasars for the AAOmege UKIDSS SDSS (AUS) survey.
Bayesian High-redshift Quasar Classification from Optical and Mid-IR Photometry
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Richards, Gordon T.; Myers, Adam D.; Peters, Christina M.; Krawczyk, Coleman M.; Chase, Greg; Ross, Nicholas P.; Fan, Xiaohui; Jiang, Linhua; Lacy, Mark; McGreer, Ian D.; Trump, Jonathan R.; Riegel, Ryan N.
2015-08-01
We identify 885,503 type 1 quasar candidates to i≲ 22 using the combination of optical and mid-IR photometry. Optical photometry is taken from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey-III: Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (SDSS-III/BOSS), while mid-IR photometry comes from a combination of data from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) “AllWISE” data release and several large-area Spitzer Space Telescope fields. Selection is based on a Bayesian kernel density algorithm with a training sample of 157,701 spectroscopically confirmed type 1 quasars with both optical and mid-IR data. Of the quasar candidates, 733,713 lack spectroscopic confirmation (and 305,623 are objects that we have not previously classified as photometric quasar candidates). These candidates include 7874 objects targeted as high-probability potential quasars with 3.5\\lt z\\lt 5 (of which 6779 are new photometric candidates). Our algorithm is more complete to z\\gt 3.5 than the traditional mid-IR selection “wedges” and to 2.2\\lt z\\lt 3.5 quasars than the SDSS-III/BOSS project. Number counts and luminosity function analysis suggest that the resulting catalog is relatively complete to known quasars and is identifying new high-z quasars at z\\gt 3. This catalog paves the way for luminosity-dependent clustering investigations of large numbers of faint, high-redshift quasars and for further machine-learning quasar selection using Spitzer and WISE data combined with other large-area optical imaging surveys.
Quasar target selection fiber efficiency
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Newberg, Heidi; Yanny, Brian
1996-05-01
We present estimates of the efficiency for finding QSOs as a function of limiting magnitude and galactic latitude. From these estimates, we have formulated a target selection strategy that should net 80,000 QSOs in the north galactic cap with an average of 70 fibers per plate, not including fibers reserved for high-redshift quasars. With this plan, we expect 54% of the targets to be QSOs. The North Galactic Cap is divided into two zones of high and low stellar density. We use about five times as many fibers for QSO candidates in the half of the survey with the lower stellar density as we use in the half with higher stellar density. The current plan assigns 15% of the fibers to FIRST radio sources; if these are not available, those fibers would be allocated to lower probability QSO sources, dropping the total number of QSOs by a small factor (5%). We will find about 17,000 additional quasars in the southern strips, and maybe a few more at very high redshift. Use was made of two data sets: the star and quasar simulated test data generated by Don Schneider, and the data from UJFN plate surveys by Koo (1986) and Kron (1980). This data was compared to results from the Palomar-Green Survey and a recent survey by Pat Osmer and collaborators.
Quasar target selection fiber efficiency
Newberg, H.; Yanny, B.
1996-05-01
We present estimates of the efficiency for finding QSOs as a function of limiting magnitude and galactic latitude. From these estimates, we have formulated a target selection strategy that should net 80,000 QSOs in the north galactic cap with an average of 70 fibers per plate, not including fibers reserved for high-redshift quasars. With this plan, we expect 54% of the targets to be QSOs. The North Galactic Cap is divided into two zones of high and low stellar density. We use about five times as many fibers for QSO candidates in the half of the survey with the lower stellar density as we use in the half with higher stellar density. The current plan assigns 15% of the fibers to FIRST radio sources; if these are not available, those fibers would be allocated to lower probability QSO sources, dropping the total number of QSOs by a small factor (5%). We will find about 17,000 additional quasars in the southern strips, and maybe a few more at very high redshift. Use was made of two data sets: the star and quasar simulated test data generated by Don Schneider, and the data from UJFN plate surveys by Koo (1986) and Kron (1980). This data was compared to results from the Palomar-Green Survey and a recent survey by Pat Osmer and collaborators.
Probabilistic selection of high-redshift quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mortlock, Daniel J.; Patel, Mitesh; Warren, Stephen J.; Hewett, Paul C.; Venemans, Bram P.; McMahon, Richard G.; Simpson, Chris
2012-01-01
High-redshift quasars (HZQs) with redshifts of z ≳ 6 are so rare that any photometrically selected sample of sources with HZQ-like colours is likely to be dominated by Galactic stars and brown dwarfs scattered from the stellar locus. It is impractical to re-observe all such candidates, so an alternative approach was developed in which Bayesian model comparison techniques are used to calculate the probability that a candidate is a HZQ, Pq, by combining models of the quasar and star populations with the photometric measurements of the object. This method was motivated specifically by the large number of HZQ candidates identified by cross-matching the UKIRT (United Kingdom Infrared Telescope) Infrared Deep Sky Survey (UKIDSS) Large Area Survey (LAS) to the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS): in the ? covered by the LAS in the UKIDSS Eighth Data Release (DR8) there are ˜9 × 103 real astronomical point sources with the measured colours of the target quasars, of which only ˜10 are expected to be HZQs. Applying Bayesian model comparison to the sample reveals that most sources with HZQ-like colours have Pq≲ 0.1 and can be confidently rejected without the need for any further observations. In the case of the UKIDSS DR8 LAS, there were just 107 candidates with Pq≥ 0.1; these objects were prioritized for re-observation by ranking according to Pq (and their likely redshift, which was also inferred from the photometric data). Most candidates were rejected after one or two (moderate-depth) photometric measurements by recalculating Pq using the new data. That left 12 confirmed HZQs, six of which were previously identified in the SDSS and six of which were new UKIDSS discoveries. The high efficiency of this Bayesian selection method suggests that it could usefully be extended to other HZQ surveys (e.g. searches by the Panoramic Survey Telescope And Rapid Response System, Pan-STARRS, or the Visible and Infrared Survey Telescope for Astronomy, VISTA) as well as to other
Selecting Quasars by Their Intrinsic Variability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schmidt, Kasper B.; Marshall, Philip J.; Rix, Hans-Walter; Jester, Sebastian; Hennawi, Joseph F.; Dobler, Gregory
2010-05-01
We present a new and simple technique for selecting extensive, complete, and pure quasar samples, based on their intrinsic variability. We parameterize the single-band variability by a power-law model for the light-curve structure function, with amplitude A and power-law index γ. We show that quasars can be efficiently separated from other non-variable and variable sources by the location of the individual sources in the A-γ plane. We use ~60 epochs of imaging data, taken over ~5 years, from the SDSS stripe 82 (S82) survey, where extensive spectroscopy provides a reference sample of quasars, to demonstrate the power of variability as a quasar classifier in multi-epoch surveys. For UV-excess selected objects, variability performs just as well as the standard SDSS color selection, identifying quasars with a completeness of 90% and a purity of 95%. In the redshift range 2.5 < z < 3, where color selection is known to be problematic, variability can select quasars with a completeness of 90% and a purity of 96%. This is a factor of 5-10 times more pure than existing color selection of quasars in this redshift range. Selecting objects from a broad griz color box without u-band information, variability selection in S82 can afford completeness and purity of 92%, despite a factor of 30 more contaminants than quasars in the color-selected feeder sample. This confirms that the fraction of quasars hidden in the "stellar locus" of color space is small. To test variability selection in the context of Pan-STARRS 1 (PS1) we created mock PS1 data by down-sampling the S82 data to just six epochs over 3 years. Even with this much sparser time sampling, variability is an encouragingly efficient classifier. For instance, a 92% pure and 44% complete quasar candidate sample is attainable from the above griz-selected catalog. Finally, we show that the presented A-γ technique, besides selecting clean and pure samples of quasars (which are stochastically varying objects), is also
Optical+Near-IR Bayesian Classification of Quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mehta, Sajjan S.; Richards, G. T.; Myers, A. D.
2011-05-01
We describe the details of an optimal Bayesian classification of quasars with combined optical+near-IR photometry from the SDSS and UKIDSS LAS surveys. Using only deep co-added SDSS photometry from the "Stripe 82" region and requiring full four-band UKIDSS detections, we reliably identify 2665 quasar candidates with a computed efficiency in excess of 99%. Relaxing the data constraints to combinations of two-band detections yields up to 6424 candidates with minimal trade-off in completeness and efficiency. The completeness and efficiency of the sample are investigated with existing spectra from the SDSS, 2SLAQ, and AUS surveys in addition to recent single-slit observations from Palomar Observatory, which revealed 22 quasars from a subsample of 29 high-z candidates. SDSS-III/BOSS observations will allow further exploration of the completeness/efficiency of the sample over 2.2
The High-Redshift Clustering of Photometrically Selected Quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Timlin, John
2017-01-01
We present the data from the Spitzer IRAC Equatorial Survey (SpIES) along with our first high-redshift (2.9
Quasar Selection Based On Photometric Variability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
MacLeod, Chelsea; Brooks, K.; Ivezic, Z.; Kochanek, C. S.; Gibson, R.; Meisner, A.; Kozlowski, S.; Sesar, B.; Becker, A. C.; deVries, W. H.
2011-01-01
We develop a method for separating quasars from other variable point sources using SDSS Stripe 82 light curve data for 10,000 variable objects. To statistically describe quasar variability, we use a damped random walk model parametrized by a damping time scale, tau, and an asymptotic amplitude (structure function), SF_inf. With the aid of an SDSS spectroscopically confirmed quasar sample, we demonstrate that variability selection in typical extragalactic fields with low stellar density can deliver complete samples with reasonable purity (or efficiency, E). Compared to a selection method based solely on the slope of the structure function, the inclusion of the tau information boosts E from 60% to 75% while maintaining a highly complete sample (98%) even in the absence of color information. With the aid of color selection, the purity can be further boosted to 96%, with C=93%. Hence, selection methods based on variability will play an important role in the selection of quasars with data provided by upcoming large sky surveys, such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). For a typical (simulated) LSST cadence over 10 years and a photometric accuracy of 0.03 mag (achieved at i 22), C is expected to be 88% for a simple sample selection criterion of tau>100 days. In summary, given an adequate survey cadence, photometric variability provides an even better method than color selection for separating quasars from stars. We acknowledge support by NSF grant AST-0807500 to the University of Washington.
The Large Area KX Quasar Survey: Photometric Redshift Selection and the Complete Quasar Catalogue
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maddox, Natasha; Hewett, P. C.; Peroux, C.
2013-01-01
We have completed a large area, ˜600 square degree, spectroscopic survey for luminous quasars flux-limited in the K-band. The survey utilises the UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey (UKIDSS) Large Area Survey (LAS) in regions of sky within the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) footprint. We exploit the K-band excess (KX) of all quasars with respect to Galactic stars in combination with a custom-built photometric redshift/classification scheme to identify quasar candidates for spectroscopic follow-up observations. The survey is complete to K≤16.6, and includes >3200 known quasars from the SDSS, with more than 250 additional confirmed quasars from the KX-selection which eluded the SDSS quasar selection algorithm. The selection is >95% complete with respect to known SDSS quasars and >95% efficient, largely independent of redshift and magnitude. The KX-selected quasars will provide new constraints on the fraction of luminous quasars reddened by dust with E(B-V)≤0.5 mag. Several projects utilizing the KX quasars are ongoing, including a spectroscopic campaign searching for dusty quasar intervening absorption systems. The KX survey is a well-defined sample of quasars useful for investigating the properties of luminous quasars with intermediate levels of dust extinction either within their host galaxies or due to intervening absorption systems.
Quasar Selection Based on Photometric Variability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
MacLeod, C. L.; Brooks, K.; Ivezić, Ž.; Kochanek, C. S.; Gibson, R.; Meisner, A.; Kozłowski, S.; Sesar, B.; Becker, A. C.; de Vries, W. H.
2011-02-01
We develop a method for separating quasars from other variable point sources using Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Stripe 82 light-curve data for ~ 10,000 variable objects. To statistically describe quasar variability, we use a damped random walk model parametrized by a damping timescale, τ, and an asymptotic amplitude (structure function), SF∞. With the aid of an SDSS spectroscopically confirmed quasar sample, we demonstrate that variability selection in typical extragalactic fields with low stellar density can deliver complete samples with reasonable purity (or efficiency, E). Compared to a selection method based solely on the slope of the structure function, the inclusion of the τ information boosts E from 60% to 75% while maintaining a highly complete sample (98%) even in the absence of color information. For a completeness of C = 90%, E is boosted from 80% to 85%. Conversely, C improves from 90% to 97% while maintaining E = 80% when imposing a lower limit on τ. With the aid of color selection, the purity can be further boosted to 96%, with C = 93%. Hence, selection methods based on variability will play an important role in the selection of quasars with data provided by upcoming large sky surveys, such as Pan-STARRS and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). For a typical (simulated) LSST cadence over 10 years and a photometric accuracy of 0.03 mag (achieved at i ≈ 22), C is expected to be 88% for a simple sample selection criterion of τ>100 days. In summary, given an adequate survey cadence, photometric variability provides an even better method than color selection for separating quasars from stars.
Probabilistic Selection of High-redshift Quasars with Subaru/Hyper Suprime-Cam Survey
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Onoue, Masafusa
High-redshift quasars are an important probe of the distant Universe. They enable observational studies of the early growth of supermassive blackholes, cosmic reionization, chemical enrichment of host galaxies, and so on. Through pioneering optical and near-infrared wide-area surveys such as the SDSS and the VIKING Survey, about one hundred quasars have been found at z > 6 (e.g., Fan et al. (2006b), Venemans et al. (2013)). However, its current small sample size and the fact that most of them are the most luminous (M 1450 <~ -24) population in this epoch prevents one from constraining statistics on high-redshift quasars, namely quasar luminosity function (QLF), and redshift evolution of IGM neutral fraction. Thus, discovery of large number of z > 6 quasars, especially low-luminous or z > 7 quasars, is highly desired for further understanding of the early universe. We are now starting a new ground-breaking survey of high-redshift (z > 6) quasars using the exquisite imaging data provided by the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) Subaru Strategic Program (SSP) Survey. Thanks to its extremely wide coverage and its high sensitivity thorough five optical bands (1,400 deg2 to the depth of r ~ 26 in HSC-Wide layer), it is one of the most powerful contemporary surveys that makes it possible for us to increase the number of z > 6 quasars by almost an order of magnitude, i.e., 300 at z ~ 6 and 50 at z ~ 7, based on the current estimate of the QLF at z > 6 by Willott et al. (2010b). One of the biggest challenges in z > 6 quasar candidate selection is contamination of Galactic brown dwarfs, which have the same point-like appearance as and similarly red colors to the quasars. To overcome this issue and maximize the selection efficiency, we apply a double-layered approach to the HSC survey products, namely combination of two probabilistic selections: SED-fitting and Bayesian selection. In particular, we have developed a template SED fitting method optimized to high-redshift quasars
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Petrosian, V.
1973-01-01
The luminosity function of quasars and its evolution are discussed, based on comparison of available data on optically selected quasars and quasars found in radio catalogs. It is assumed that the red shift of quasars is cosmological and the results are expressed in the framework of the Lambda = 0, Q sub Q = 1 cosmological model. The predictions of various density evolution laws are compared with observations of an optically selected sample of quasars and quasar samples from radio catalogs. The differences between the optical luminosity functions, the red shift distributions and the radio to optical luminosity ratios of optically selected quasars and radio quasars rule out luminosity functions where there is complete absence of correlation between radio and optical luminosities. These differences also imply that Schmidt's (1970) luminosity function, where there exists a statistical correlation between radio and optical luminosities, although may be correct for high red shift objects, disagrees with observation at low red shifts. These differences can be accounted for by postulating existence of two classes (1 and 2) of objects.
Variability selected high-redshift quasars on SDSS Stripe 82
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Palanque-Delabrouille, N.; Yeche, Ch.; Myers, A. D.; Petitjean, P.; Ross, N. P.; Sheldon, E.; Aubourg, E.; Delubac, T.; Le Goff, J.-M.; Pâris, I.; Rich, J.; Dawson, K. S.; Schneider, D. P.; Weaver, B. A.
2011-06-01
The SDSS-III BOSS Quasar survey will attempt to observe z > 2.15 quasars at a density of at least 15 per square degree to yield the first measurement of the baryon acoustic oscillations in the Ly-α forest. To help reaching this goal, we have developed a method to identify quasars based on their variability in the ugriz optical bands. The method has been applied to the selection of quasar targets in the SDSS region known as Stripe 82 (the southern equatorial stripe), where numerous photometric observations are available over a 10-year baseline. This area was observed by BOSS during September and October 2010. Only 8% of the objects selected via variability are not quasars, while 90% of the previously identified high-redshift quasar population is recovered. The method allows for a significant increase in the z > 2.15 quasar density over previous strategies based on optical (ugriz) colors, achieving a density of 24.0 deg-2 on average down to g ~ 22 over the 220 deg2 area of Stripe 82. We applied this method to simulated data from the Palomar Transient Factory and from Pan-STARRS, and showed that even with data that have sparser time sampling than what is available in Stripe 82, including variability in future quasar selection strategies would lead to increased target selection efficiency in the z > 2.15 redshift range. We also found that broad absorption line quasars are preferentially present in a variability than in a color selection.
A Bayesian Method For Finding Galaxies That Cause Quasar Absorption Lines
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shoemaker, Emileigh Suzanne; Laubner, David Andrew; Scott, Jennifer E.
2016-01-01
We present a study of candidate absorber-galaxy pairs for 39 low redshift quasar sightlines (0.06 < z < 0.85) using a statistical approach to match absorbers with galaxies near the quasar lines of sight. Of the 75 quasars observed with HST/Cosmic Origins Spectrograph (COS) and archived on the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes (MAST), 39 overlap with the footprint of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). We downloaded the COS linelists for these quasar spectra from MAST and queried the SDSS DR12 database for photometric data on all galaxies within 1 Mpc of each of these quasar lines of sight. We calculated photometric redshifts for all the SDSS galaxies using the Bayesian Photometric Redshift code. We used all these absorber and galaxy data as input into an absorber-galaxy matching code which also employs a Bayesian scheme, along with known statistics of the intergalactic medium and circumgalactic media of galaxies, for finding the most probable galaxy match for each absorber. We compare our candidate absorber-galaxy matches to existing studies in the literature and explore trends in the absorber and galaxy properties among the matched and non-matched populations. This method of matching absorbers and galaxies can be used to find targets for follow up spectroscopic studies.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Eilers, Anna-Christina; Hennawi, Joseph F.; Lee, Khee-Gan
2017-08-01
We present a new Bayesian algorithm making use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling that allows us to simultaneously estimate the unknown continuum level of each quasar in an ensemble of high-resolution spectra, as well as their common probability distribution function (PDF) for the transmitted Lyα forest flux. This fully automated PDF regulated continuum fitting method models the unknown quasar continuum with a linear principal component analysis (PCA) basis, with the PCA coefficients treated as nuisance parameters. The method allows one to estimate parameters governing the thermal state of the intergalactic medium (IGM), such as the slope of the temperature-density relation γ -1, while marginalizing out continuum uncertainties in a fully Bayesian way. Using realistic mock quasar spectra created from a simplified semi-numerical model of the IGM, we show that this method recovers the underlying quasar continua to a precision of ≃ 7 % and ≃ 10 % at z = 3 and z = 5, respectively. Given the number of principal component spectra, this is comparable to the underlying accuracy of the PCA model itself. Most importantly, we show that we can achieve a nearly unbiased estimate of the slope γ -1 of the IGM temperature-density relation with a precision of +/- 8.6 % at z = 3 and +/- 6.1 % at z = 5, for an ensemble of ten mock high-resolution quasar spectra. Applying this method to real quasar spectra and comparing to a more realistic IGM model from hydrodynamical simulations would enable precise measurements of the thermal and cosmological parameters governing the IGM, albeit with somewhat larger uncertainties, given the increased flexibility of the model.
New quasar survey with WIRO: Color-selection of quasar candidates behind M33
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Harvey, William Bradford; Bassett, Neil; Deam, Sophie; Dixon, Don; Griffith, Emily; Lee, Daniel; Lyke, Bradley; Haze Nunez, Evan; Parziale, Ryan; Witherspoon, Catherine; Myers, Adam D.; Findlay, Joseph; Kobulnicky, Henry A.; Dale, Daniel A.
2017-01-01
We report new quasar candidates in the extended gaseous region of the Triangulum (M33) Galaxy as observed with WIRO (The Wyoming Infrared Observatory) in the ugri bands during the Summer of 2016. Our survey produced a sample of 14042 point sources to a limiting depth of g ≤ 21.7 in a region of ~16 square degrees, 34 of which are UVX-selected, known quasars with redshifts up to z < 2.2. Color-color plots were created using extinction-corrected magnitudes of ugri as well as NUV and W1 as taken from GALEX (Galaxy Evolution Explorer) and WISE (Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer) respectively. Using a series of color cuts in NUV, u, g, r, i, and W1 bands, we recover high-quality quasar candidates. Based on optical colors alone we project ~30 new candidates per square degree. Spectroscopic follow-up of these candidates could yield new, bright quasars behind M33. This work is supported by the National Science Foundation under REU grant AST 1560461.
DISCOVERY OF A RADIO-SELECTED z {approx} 6 QUASAR
Zeimann, Gregory R.; Becker, Robert H.; Hodge, Jacqueline A.; Stanford, Spencer A.; White, Richard L.; Richards, Gordon T.
2011-07-20
We present the discovery of only the second radio-selected z {approx} 6 quasar. We identified SDSS J222843.54+011032.2 (z = 5.95) by matching the optical detections of the deep Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 with their radio counterparts in the Stripe 82 Very Large Array Survey. We also matched the Canadian-France-Hawaiian Telescope Legacy Survey Wide with the Faint Images of the Radio Sky at Twenty cm survey but have yet to find any z {approx} 6 quasars in this survey area. The discovered quasar is optically faint, z = 22.3 and M{sub 1450} {approx} -24.5, but radio bright, with a flux density of f{sub 1.4GHz,peak} = 0.31 mJy and a radio loudness of R {approx} 1100 (where R {identical_to} f{sub 5GHz}/f{sub 2500}). The i - z color of the discovered quasar places it outside the color selection criteria for existing optical surveys. We conclude by discussing the need for deeper wide-area radio surveys in the context of high-redshift quasars.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maddox, Natasha; Hewett, Paul C.; Péroux, Céline; Nestor, Daniel B.; Wisotzki, Lutz
2012-08-01
The results of a large area, ˜600 deg2, K-band flux-limited spectroscopic survey for luminous quasars are presented. The survey utilizes the UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey (UKIDSS) Large Area Survey (LAS) in regions of sky within the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) footprint. The K-band excess (KX) of all quasars with respect to Galactic stars is exploited in combination with a photometric redshift/classification scheme to identify quasar candidates for spectroscopic follow-up observations. The data contained within this investigation will be able to provide new constraints on the fraction of luminous quasars reddened by dust with E(B - V) ≤ 0.5 mag. The spectroscopic sample is defined using the K-band, 14.0 ≤ K ≤ 16.6, and SDSS i-band limits of i = 19.5, 19.7 and 22.0 over sky areas of 287, 150 and 196 deg2, respectively. The survey includes >3200 known quasars from the SDSS and more than 250 additional confirmed quasars from the KX selection. A well-defined subsample of quasars in the redshift interval 1.0 ≤ z ≤ 3.5 includes 1152 objects from the SDSS and 172 additional KX-selected quasars. The quasar selection is >95 per cent complete with respect to known SDSS quasars and >95 per cent efficient, largely independent of redshift and i-band magnitude. The properties of the new KX-selected quasars confirm the known redshift-dependent effectiveness of the SDSS quasar selection and provide a sample of luminous quasars experiencing intermediate levels of extinction by dust. The catalogue represents an important step towards the assembly of a well-defined sample of luminous quasars that may be used to investigate the properties of quasars experiencing intermediate levels of dust extinction within their host galaxies or due intervening absorption line systems. †Based on observations made with ESO telescopes at the La Silla Paranal Observatory under programme IDs 083.A0360 and 085.A0359.‡Based on observations collected at the Centro Astronómico Hispano
A simple and effective algorithm for quasar candidate selection
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peng, Nanbo; Zhang, Yanxia; Pei, Tong; Zhao, Yongheng
2010-07-01
K-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) algorithm is one of the simplest and most flexible and effective classification algorithms, which has been widely used in many fields. Using the multi-band samples extracted from large surveys of SDSS DR7 and UKIDSS DR3, we investigate the performance of kNN with different combinations of colors to select quasar candidates. The color histograms of quasars and stars is helpful to select the optimal input pattern for the classifier of kNN. The best input pattern is (u-g, g-r, r-i, i-z, z-Y, Y-J, J-H, H-K, Y-K, g-z). In our case, the performance of kNN is assessed by different performance metrics, which indicate kNN has rather high performance for discriminating quasars from stars. As a result, kNN is an applicable and effective method to select quasar candidates for large sky survey projects.
Wu Xuebing; Hao Guoqiang; Jia Zhendong; Zhang Yanxia; Peng Nanbo
2012-08-15
We present a catalog of 37,842 quasars in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 7, which have counterparts within 6'' in the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) Preliminary Data Release. The overall WISE detection rate of the SDSS quasars is 86.7%, and it decreases to less than 50.0% when the quasar magnitude is fainter than i = 20.5. We derive the median color-redshift relations based on this SDSS-WISE quasar sample and apply them to estimate the photometric redshifts of the SDSS-WISE quasars. We find that by adding the WISE W1- and W2-band data to the SDSS photometry we can increase the photometric redshift reliability, defined as the percentage of sources with photometric and spectroscopic redshift difference less than 0.2, from 70.3% to 77.2%. We also obtain the samples of WISE-detected normal and late-type stars with SDSS spectroscopy, and present a criterion in the z - W1 versus g - z color-color diagram, z - W1 > 0.66(g - z) + 2.01, to separate quasars from stars. With this criterion we can recover 98.6% of 3089 radio-detected SDSS-WISE quasars with redshifts less than four and overcome the difficulty in selecting quasars with redshifts between 2.2 and 3 from SDSS photometric data alone. We also suggest another criterion involving the WISE color only, W1 - W2 > 0.57, to efficiently separate quasars with redshifts less than 3.2 from stars. In addition, we compile a catalog of 5614 SDSS quasars detected by both WISE and UKIDSS surveys and present their color-redshift relations in the optical and infrared bands. By using the SDSS ugriz, UKIDSS, YJHK, and WISE W1- and W2-band photometric data, we can efficiently select quasar candidates and increase the photometric redshift reliability up to 87.0%. We discuss the implications of our results on the future quasar surveys. An updated SDSS-WISE quasar catalog consisting of 101,853 quasars with the recently released WISE all-sky data is also provided.
Results from selection of high redshift radio-loud quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tuccillo, D.; Gonzalez-Serrano, J. I.; Carballo, R.
2013-05-01
We present results on reliable selection of Radio Loud Quasars (RLQ) at high redshift (z>3.6), based on the combined use of the surveys FIRST and SDSS. We explore the redshift range 3.6
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Krogager, J.-K.; Fynbo, J. P. U.; Heintz, K. E.; Geier, S.; Ledoux, C.; Møller, P.; Noterdaeme, P.; Venemans, B. P.; Vestergaard, M.
2016-11-01
We present the results of a new spectroscopic survey for dusty intervening absorption systems, particularly damped Lyα absorbers (DLAs), toward reddened quasars. The candidate quasars are selected from mid-infrared photometry from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer combined with optical and near-infrared photometry. Out of 1073 candidates, we secure low-resolution spectra for 108 using the Nordic Optical Telescope on La Palma, Spain. Based on the spectra, we are able to classify 100 of the 108 targets as quasars. A large fraction (50%) is observed to have broad absorption lines (BALs). Moreover, we find six quasars with strange breaks in their spectra, which are not consistent with regular dust reddening. Using template fitting, we infer the amount of reddening along each line of sight ranging from A(V) ≈ 0.1 to 1.2 mag (assuming a Small Magellanic Cloud extinction curve). In four cases, the reddening is consistent with dust exhibiting the 2175 Å feature caused by an intervening absorber, and for two of these, an Mg ii absorption system is observed at the best-fit absorption redshift. In the rest of the cases, the reddening is most likely intrinsic to the quasar. We observe no evidence for dusty DLAs in this survey. However, the large fraction of BAL quasars hampers the detection of absorption systems. Out of the 50 non-BAL quasars, only 28 have sufficiently high redshift to detect Lyα in absorption.
Bayesian model selection and isocurvature perturbations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Beltrán, María; García-Bellido, Juan; Lesgourgues, Julien; Liddle, Andrew R.; Slosar, Anže
2005-03-01
Present cosmological data are well explained assuming purely adiabatic perturbations, but an admixture of isocurvature perturbations is also permitted. We use a Bayesian framework to compare the performance of cosmological models including isocurvature modes with the purely adiabatic case; this framework automatically and consistently penalizes models which use more parameters to fit the data. We compute the Bayesian evidence for fits to a data set comprised of WMAP and other microwave anisotropy data, the galaxy power spectrum from 2dFGRS and SDSS, and Type Ia supernovae luminosity distances. We find that Bayesian model selection favors the purely adiabatic models, but so far only at low significance.
Bayesian Multiscale Analysis of X-Ray Jet Features in High Redshift Quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McKeough, Kathryn; Siemiginowska, A.; Kashyap, V.; Stein, N.
2014-01-01
X-ray emission of powerful quasar jets may be a result of the inverse Compton (IC) process in which the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) photons gain energy by interactions with the jet’s relativistic electrons. However, there is no definite evidence that IC/CMB process is responsible for the observed X-ray emission of large scale jets. A step toward understanding the X-ray emission process is to study the Radio and X-ray morphologies of the jet. We implement a sophisticated Bayesian image analysis program, Low-count Image Reconstruction and Analysis (LIRA) (Esch et al. 2004; Conners & van Dyk 2007), to analyze jet features in 11 Chandra images of high redshift quasars (z ~ 2 - 4.8). Out of the 36 regions where knots are visible in the radio jets, nine showed detectable X-ray emission. We measured the ratios of the X-ray and radio luminosities of the detected features and found that they are consistent with the CMB radiation relationship. We derived a range of the bulk lorentz factor (Γ) for detected jet features under the CMB jet emission model. There is no discernible trend of Γ with redshift within the sample. The efficiency of the X-ray emission between the detected jet feature and the corresponding quasar also shows no correlation with redshift. This work is supported in part by the National Science Foundation REU and the Department of Defense ASSURE programs under NSF Grant no.1262851 and by the Smithsonian Institution, and by NASA Contract NAS8-39073 to the Chandra X-ray Center (CXC). This research has made use of data obtained from the Chandra Data Archive and Chandra Source Catalog, and software provided by the CXC in the application packages CIAO, ChIPS, and Sherpa. We thank Teddy Cheung for providing the VLA radio images. Connors, A., & van Dyk, D. A. 2007, Statistical Challenges in Modern Astronomy IV, 371, 101 Esch, D. N., Connors, A., Karovska, M., & van Dyk, D. A. 2004, ApJ, 610, 1213
Feature selection using sparse Bayesian inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brandes, T. Scott; Baxter, James R.; Woodworth, Jonathan
2014-06-01
A process for selecting a sparse subset of features that maximize discrimination between target classes is described in a Bayesian framework. Demonstrated on high range resolution radar (HRR) signature data, this has the effect of selecting the most informative range bins for a classification task. The sparse Bayesian classifier (SBC) model is directly compared against Fisher's linear discriminant analysis (LDA), showing a clear performance gain with the Bayesian framework using HRRs from the publicly available MSTAR data set. The discriminative power of the selected features from the SBC is shown to be particularly dominant over LDA when only a few features are selected or when there is a shift in training and testing data sets, as demonstrated by training on a specific target type and testing on a slightly different target type.
THE SDSS-IV EXTENDED BARYON OSCILLATION SPECTROSCOPIC SURVEY: QUASAR TARGET SELECTION
Myers, Adam D.; Palanque-Delabrouille, Nathalie; Prakash, Abhishek; Pâris, Isabelle; Yeche, Christophe; Dawson, Kyle S.; Bovy, Jo; Lang, Dustin; Schlegel, David J.; Newman, Jeffrey A.; Petitjean, Patrick; Kneib, Jean-Paul; Percival, Will J.; Ross, Ashley J.; Seo, Hee-Jong; Tinker, Jeremy L.; Armengaud, Eric; Brownstein, Joel; Burtin, Etienne; Cai, Zheng; Comparat, Johan; Kasliwal, Mansi; Kulkarni, Shrinivas R.; Laher, Russ; Levitan, David; McBride, Cameron K.; McGreer, Ian D.; Miller, Adam A.; Nugent, Peter; Ofek, Eran; Rossi, Graziano; Ruan, John; Schneider, Donald P.; Sesar, Branimir; Streblyanska, Alina; Surace, Jason
2015-12-01
As part of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) IV the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) will improve measurements of the cosmological distance scale by applying the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) method to quasar samples. eBOSS will adopt two approaches to target quasars over 7500 deg^{2} . First, a "CORE" quasar sample will combine the optical selection in ugriz using a likelihood-based routine called XDQSOz, with a mid-IR-optical color cut. eBOSS CORE selection (to g < 22 or r < 22) should return ~70 deg^{-2} quasars at redshifts 0.9 < z < 2.2 and ~7 deg -2 z > 2.1 quasars. Second, a selection based on variability in multi-epoch imaging from the Palomar Transient Factory should recover an additional ~3-4 deg^{-2} z > 2.1 quasars to g < 22.5. A linear model of how imaging systematics affect target density recovers the angular distribution of eBOSS CORE quasars over 96.7% (76.7%) of the SDSS north (south) Galactic Cap area. The eBOSS CORE quasar sample should thus be sufficiently dense and homogeneous over 0.9 < z < 2.2 to yield the first few-percent-level BAO constraint near eBOSS quasars at z > 2.1 will be used to improve BAO measurements in the Lyα Forest. Beyond its key cosmological goals, eBOSS should be the next-generation quasar survey, comprising > 500,000 new quasars and > 500,000 uniformly selected spectroscopically confirmed 0.9 < z < 2.2 quasars. At the conclusion of eBOSS, the SDSS will have provided unique spectra for more than 800,000 quasars.
THE SDSS-IV EXTENDED BARYON OSCILLATION SPECTROSCOPIC SURVEY: QUASAR TARGET SELECTION
Myers, Adam D.; Palanque-Delabrouille, Nathalie; Prakash, Abhishek; ...
2015-12-01
As part of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) IV the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) will improve measurements of the cosmological distance scale by applying the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) method to quasar samples. eBOSS will adopt two approaches to target quasars over 7500 deg2 . First, a "CORE" quasar sample will combine the optical selection in ugriz using a likelihood-based routine called XDQSOz, with a mid-IR-optical color cut. eBOSS CORE selection (to g < 22 or r < 22) should return ~70 deg-2 quasars at redshifts 0.9 < z < 2.2 and ~7 deg -2 z >more » 2.1 quasars. Second, a selection based on variability in multi-epoch imaging from the Palomar Transient Factory should recover an additional ~3-4 deg-2 z > 2.1 quasars to g < 22.5. A linear model of how imaging systematics affect target density recovers the angular distribution of eBOSS CORE quasars over 96.7% (76.7%) of the SDSS north (south) Galactic Cap area. The eBOSS CORE quasar sample should thus be sufficiently dense and homogeneous over 0.9 < z < 2.2 to yield the first few-percent-level BAO constraint near eBOSS quasars at z > 2.1 will be used to improve BAO measurements in the Lyα Forest. Beyond its key cosmological goals, eBOSS should be the next-generation quasar survey, comprising > 500,000 new quasars and > 500,000 uniformly selected spectroscopically confirmed 0.9 < z < 2.2 quasars. At the conclusion of eBOSS, the SDSS will have provided unique spectra for more than 800,000 quasars.« less
The SDSS-IV Extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: Quasar Target Selection
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Myers, Adam D.; Palanque-Delabrouille, Nathalie; Prakash, Abhishek; Pâris, Isabelle; Yeche, Christophe; Dawson, Kyle S.; Bovy, Jo; Lang, Dustin; Schlegel, David J.; Newman, Jeffrey A.; Petitjean, Patrick; Kneib, Jean-Paul; Laurent, Pierre; Percival, Will J.; Ross, Ashley J.; Seo, Hee-Jong; Tinker, Jeremy L.; Armengaud, Eric; Brownstein, Joel; Burtin, Etienne; Cai, Zheng; Comparat, Johan; Kasliwal, Mansi; Kulkarni, Shrinivas R.; Laher, Russ; Levitan, David; McBride, Cameron K.; McGreer, Ian D.; Miller, Adam A.; Nugent, Peter; Ofek, Eran; Rossi, Graziano; Ruan, John; Schneider, Donald P.; Sesar, Branimir; Streblyanska, Alina; Surace, Jason
2015-12-01
As part of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) IV the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) will improve measurements of the cosmological distance scale by applying the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) method to quasar samples. eBOSS will adopt two approaches to target quasars over 7500 deg2. First, a “CORE” quasar sample will combine the optical selection in ugriz using a likelihood-based routine called XDQSOz, with a mid-IR-optical color cut. eBOSS CORE selection (to g < 22 or r < 22) should return ˜70 deg-2 quasars at redshifts 0.9 < z < 2.2 and ˜7 deg-2z > 2.1 quasars. Second, a selection based on variability in multi-epoch imaging from the Palomar Transient Factory should recover an additional ˜3-4 deg-2z > 2.1 quasars to g < 22.5. A linear model of how imaging systematics affect target density recovers the angular distribution of eBOSS CORE quasars over 96.7% (76.7%) of the SDSS north (south) Galactic Cap area. The eBOSS CORE quasar sample should thus be sufficiently dense and homogeneous over 0.9 < z < 2.2 to yield the first few-percent-level BAO constraint near \\bar{z}˜ 1.5.eBOSS quasars at z > 2.1 will be used to improve BAO measurements in the Lyα Forest. Beyond its key cosmological goals, eBOSS should be the next-generation quasar survey, comprising >500,000 new quasars and >500,000 uniformly selected spectroscopically confirmed 0.9 < z < 2.2 quasars. At the conclusion of eBOSS, the SDSS will have provided unique spectra for more than 800,000 quasars.
Efficient Photometric Selection of Quasars From the Sloan Digital Sky Survey: 100,000 z
2004-12-01
EFFICIENT PHOTOMETRIC SELECTION OF QUASARS FROM THE SLOAN DIGITAL SKY SURVEY: 100,000 z < 3 QUASARS FROM DATA RELEASE ONE Gordon T. Richards,1 Robert...excess (UVX) quasar candidates to g ¼ 21 from 2099 deg2 of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release One (DR1) imaging data. Existing spectra...of known quasars to rise from one to tens of thousands. Yet even in this day of very large surveys and deep digital imaging, we are still far from
Discovery of 16 New z ∼ 5.5 Quasars: Filling in the Redshift Gap of Quasar Color Selection
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Jinyi; Fan, Xiaohui; Wu, Xue-Bing; Wang, Feige; Bian, Fuyan; Yang, Qian; McGreer, Ian D.; Yi, Weimin; Jiang, Linhua; Green, Richard; Yue, Minghao; Wang, Shu; Li, Zefeng; Ding, Jiani; Dye, Simon; Lawrence, Andy
2017-04-01
We present initial results from the first systematic survey of luminous z ∼ 5.5 quasars. Quasars at z ∼ 5.5, the post-reionization epoch, are crucial tools to explore the evolution of intergalactic medium, quasar evolution, and the early super-massive black hole growth. However, it has been very challenging to select quasars at redshifts 5.3 ≤ z ≤ 5.7 using conventional color selections, due to their similar optical colors to late-type stars, especially M dwarfs, resulting in a glaring redshift gap in quasar redshift distributions. We develop a new selection technique for z ∼ 5.5 quasars based on optical, near-IR, and mid-IR photometric data from Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), UKIRT InfraRed Deep Sky Surveys—Large Area Survey (ULAS), VISTA Hemisphere Survey (VHS), and Wide Field Infrared Survey Explorer. From our pilot observations in the SDSS-ULAS/VHS area, we have discovered 15 new quasars at 5.3 ≤ z ≤ 5.7 and 6 new lower redshift quasars, with SDSS z band magnitude brighter than 20.5. Including other two z ∼ 5.5 quasars already published in our previous work, we now construct a uniform quasar sample at 5.3 ≤ z ≤ 5.7, with 17 quasars in a ∼4800 square degree survey area. For further application in a larger survey area, we apply our selection pipeline to do a test selection by using the new wide field J-band photometric data from a preliminary version of the UKIRT Hemisphere Survey (UHS). We successfully discover the first UHS selected z ∼ 5.5 quasar.
Mid-infrared-selected quasars. I. Virial black hole mass and eddington ratios
Dai, Y. Sophia; Elvis, Martin; Fazio, Giovanni G.; Huang, Jia-Sheng; Wilkes, Belinda J.; Bergeron, Jacqueline; Omont, Alain; Willmer, Christopher N. A.; Papovich, Casey
2014-08-20
We provide a catalog of 391 mid-infrared-selected (MIR; 24 μm) broad-emission-line (BEL; type 1) quasars in the 22 deg{sup 2} SWIRE Lockman Hole field. This quasar sample is selected in the MIR from Spitzer MIPS with S {sub 24} > 400 μJy, jointly with an optical magnitude limit of r (AB) < 22.5 for broad line identification. The catalog is based on MMT and Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) spectroscopy to select BEL quasars, extending the SDSS coverage to fainter magnitudes and lower redshifts, and recovers a more complete quasar population. The MIR-selected quasar sample peaks at z ∼ 1.4 and recovers a significant and constant (20%) fraction of extended objects with SDSS photometry across magnitudes, which were not included in the SDSS quasar survey dominated by point sources. This sample also recovers a significant population of z < 3 quasars at i > 19.1. We then investigate the continuum luminosity and line profiles of these MIR quasars, and estimate their virial black hole masses and the Eddington ratios. The supermassive black hole mass shows evidence of downsizing, although the Eddington ratios remain constant at 1 < z < 4. Compared to point sources in the same redshift range, extended sources at z < 1 show systematically lower Eddington ratios. The catalog and spectra are publicly available online.
Quasar lenses and galactic streams: outlier selection and Gaia multiplet detection
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Agnello, Adriano
2017-10-01
I describe two novel techniques originally devised to select strongly lensed quasar candidates in wide-field surveys. The first relies on outlier selection in optical and mid-infrared magnitude space; the second combines mid-infrared colour selection with Gaia spatial resolution, to identify multiplets of objects with quasar-like colours. Both methods have already been applied successfully to the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, ATLAS and Dark Energy Survey footprints: besides recovering known lenses from previous searches, they have led to new discoveries, including quadruply lensed quasars, which are rare within the rare-object class of quasar lenses. As a serendipitous by-product, at least four candidate Galactic streams in the South have been identified among foreground contaminants. There is considerable scope for tailoring the WISE-Gaia multiplet search to stellar-like objects, instead of quasar-like, and to automatically detect Galactic streams.
X-ray Properties of Deep Radio-Selected Quasars
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Becker, Robert
2002-01-01
This report summarizes the research supported by the ADP grant entitled 'X-ray Properties of Deep Radio-Selected Quasars'. The primary effort consisted of correlating the ROSAT All-Sky Survey catalog with the April 1997 release of the FIRST (Faint Images of the Radio Sky at Twenty centimeters) radio catalog. We found that a matching radius of 60 sec excluded most false matches while retaining most of the true radio-X-ray sources. The correlation of the approx. 80,000 source RASS and approx. 268,000 FIRST catalogs matched 2,588 FIRST sources with 1,649 RASS sources out of a possible 5,520 RASS sources residing in the FIRST survey area. This number is much higher than expected from our previous experience of correlating the RASS with radio surveys and indicates we detected new classes of objects not seen in the correlations with less sensitive radio surveys.
Objective Bayesian model selection for Cox regression.
Held, Leonhard; Gravestock, Isaac; Sabanés Bové, Daniel
2016-12-20
There is now a large literature on objective Bayesian model selection in the linear model based on the g-prior. The methodology has been recently extended to generalized linear models using test-based Bayes factors. In this paper, we show that test-based Bayes factors can also be applied to the Cox proportional hazards model. If the goal is to select a single model, then both the maximum a posteriori and the median probability model can be calculated. For clinical prediction of survival, we shrink the model-specific log hazard ratio estimates with subsequent calculation of the Breslow estimate of the cumulative baseline hazard function. A Bayesian model average can also be employed. We illustrate the proposed methodology with the analysis of survival data on primary biliary cirrhosis patients and the development of a clinical prediction model for future cardiovascular events based on data from the Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART) cohort study. Cross-validation is applied to compare the predictive performance with alternative model selection approaches based on Harrell's c-Index, the calibration slope and the integrated Brier score. Finally, a novel application of Bayesian variable selection to optimal conditional prediction via landmarking is described. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Can natural selection encode Bayesian priors?
Ramírez, Juan Camilo; Marshall, James A R
2017-08-07
The evolutionary success of many organisms depends on their ability to make decisions based on estimates of the state of their environment (e.g., predation risk) from uncertain information. These decision problems have optimal solutions and individuals in nature are expected to evolve the behavioural mechanisms to make decisions as if using the optimal solutions. Bayesian inference is the optimal method to produce estimates from uncertain data, thus natural selection is expected to favour individuals with the behavioural mechanisms to make decisions as if they were computing Bayesian estimates in typically-experienced environments, although this does not necessarily imply that favoured decision-makers do perform Bayesian computations exactly. Each individual should evolve to behave as if updating a prior estimate of the unknown environment variable to a posterior estimate as it collects evidence. The prior estimate represents the decision-maker's default belief regarding the environment variable, i.e., the individual's default 'worldview' of the environment. This default belief has been hypothesised to be shaped by natural selection and represent the environment experienced by the individual's ancestors. We present an evolutionary model to explore how accurately Bayesian prior estimates can be encoded genetically and shaped by natural selection when decision-makers learn from uncertain information. The model simulates the evolution of a population of individuals that are required to estimate the probability of an event. Every individual has a prior estimate of this probability and collects noisy cues from the environment in order to update its prior belief to a Bayesian posterior estimate with the evidence gained. The prior is inherited and passed on to offspring. Fitness increases with the accuracy of the posterior estimates produced. Simulations show that prior estimates become accurate over evolutionary time. In addition to these 'Bayesian' individuals, we also
A unifying evolutionary framework for infrared-selected obscured and unobscured quasar host haloes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
DiPompeo, M. A.; Hickox, R. C.; Myers, A. D.; Geach, J. E.
2017-01-01
Recent measurements of the dark matter halo masses of infrared-selected obscured quasars are in tension - some indicate that obscured quasars have a higher halo mass compared to their unobscured counterparts, while others find no difference. The former result is inconsistent with the simplest models of quasar unification which rely solely on the viewing angle, while the latter may support such models. Here, using empirical relationships between dark matter halo and supermassive black hole (BH) masses, we provide a simple evolutionary picture which naturally explains these findings and is motivated by more sophisticated merger-driven quasar-fuelling models. The model tracks the growth rate of haloes, with the BH growing in spurts of quasar activity in order to `catch up' with the Mbh-Mstellar-Mhalo relationship. The first part of the quasar phase is obscured and is followed by an unobscured phase. Depending on the luminosity limit of the sample, driven by observational selection effects, a difference in halo masses may or may not be significant. For high-luminosity samples, the difference can be large (a few to 10 times higher masses in obscured quasars), while for lower luminosity samples, the halo mass difference is very small, much smaller than current observational constraints. Such a simple model provides a qualitative explanation for the higher mass haloes of obscured quasars, as well as a rough quantitative agreement with seemingly disparate results.
Mid-Infrared Selected Quasars I: Virial Black Hole Mass and Eddington Ratios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dai, Yu Sophia; Elvis, Martin; Bergeron, Jacqueline; Fazio, Giovanni G.; Huang, Jiasheng; Wilkes, Belinda J.; Willmar, Christopher
2014-06-01
We provide a catalog of 391 mid-infrared-selected (MIR, 24μm) broad-emission-line (BEL, type 1) quasars in the 20 square deg SWIRE Lockman Hole field. This quasar sample is selected in the MIR from Spitzer MIPS with S24 >0.4mJy, and jointly with an optical magnitude limit of r (AB)= 22.5. The catalog is based on MMT spectroscopy to select BEL quasars, and extends the SDSS coverage to fainter magnitudes and a more complete quasar population. The MIR-selected quasar sample peaks at z ˜1.4, and shows a significant and constant (20%) fraction of objects with extended SDSS photometry, previously missed by the SDSS optical point source dominant color selection. This sample also recovers a significant population of z < 3 quasars at i > 19.1, previously dropped by SDSS for efficiency consideration. We also investigate the continuum luminosity and line profile of these MIR quasars, estimate their virial black hole masses, and provide the Eddington ratios. The SMBH mass shows evidence of downsizing, though the Eddington ratios remain constant at 1 < z < 4. Compared to point sources in the same redshift range, extended sources at z < 1 show systematically lower Eddington ratios. The catalog and spectra will be publicly available online.
Bayesian variable selection for latent class models.
Ghosh, Joyee; Herring, Amy H; Siega-Riz, Anna Maria
2011-09-01
In this article, we develop a latent class model with class probabilities that depend on subject-specific covariates. One of our major goals is to identify important predictors of latent classes. We consider methodology that allows estimation of latent classes while allowing for variable selection uncertainty. We propose a Bayesian variable selection approach and implement a stochastic search Gibbs sampler for posterior computation to obtain model-averaged estimates of quantities of interest such as marginal inclusion probabilities of predictors. Our methods are illustrated through simulation studies and application to data on weight gain during pregnancy, where it is of interest to identify important predictors of latent weight gain classes.
Quasars Probing Quasars: The quasar pair catalog
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Findlay, Joseph; Hennawi, Joseph F.; Prochaska, Jason X.; Fumagalli, Michele; Myers, Adam D.; Bartle, Stephanie
2017-06-01
The rare close projection of two quasars on the sky provides the opportunity to study the host galaxy environment of a foreground quasar in absorption against the Lyman-alpha emission of a background quasar. For over a decade the "Quasars probing quasars" series has utilized this technique to further the understanding of galaxy formation and evolution in the presence of a quasar at z>2, resolving scales as small as a galactic disc, where the UV ionizing flux from the quasar can exceed ~104 times the ambient UV background. This poster presents the public release of the quasar pair catalog utilized in these studies. In addition, the catalog also includes quasar pair members at z<2, gravitational lens candidates and quasars closely separated in redshift that are useful for small-scale clustering studies. We outline the key contributions made by this series over the last ten years, summarize the imaging and spectroscopic data used for target selection, discuss the target selection methodologies, describe the catalog content, and explore some avenues for future work. This poster was partially supported by NSF grants 1515404 and AST-1412981.
Bayesian model selection analysis of WMAP3
Parkinson, David; Mukherjee, Pia; Liddle, Andrew R.
2006-06-15
We present a Bayesian model selection analysis of WMAP3 data using our code CosmoNest. We focus on the density perturbation spectral index n{sub S} and the tensor-to-scalar ratio r, which define the plane of slow-roll inflationary models. We find that while the Bayesian evidence supports the conclusion that n{sub S}{ne}1, the data are not yet powerful enough to do so at a strong or decisive level. If tensors are assumed absent, the current odds are approximately 8 to 1 in favor of n{sub S}{ne}1 under our assumptions, when WMAP3 data is used together with external data sets. WMAP3 data on its own is unable to distinguish between the two models. Further, inclusion of r as a parameter weakens the conclusion against the Harrison-Zel'dovich case (n{sub S}=1, r=0), albeit in a prior-dependent way. In appendices we describe the CosmoNest code in detail, noting its ability to supply posterior samples as well as to accurately compute the Bayesian evidence. We make a first public release of CosmoNest, now available at www.cosmonest.org.
Bayesian Model Selection for Group Studies
Stephan, Klaas Enno; Penny, Will D.; Daunizeau, Jean; Moran, Rosalyn J.; Friston, Karl J.
2009-01-01
Bayesian model selection (BMS) is a powerful method for determining the most likely among a set of competing hypotheses about the mechanisms that generated observed data. BMS has recently found widespread application in neuroimaging, particularly in the context of dynamic causal modelling (DCM). However, so far, combining BMS results from several subjects has relied on simple (fixed effects) metrics, e.g. the group Bayes factor (GBF), that do not account for group heterogeneity or outliers. In this paper, we compare the GBF with two random effects methods for BMS at the between-subject or group level. These methods provide inference on model-space using a classical and Bayesian perspective respectively. First, a classical (frequentist) approach uses the log model evidence as a subject-specific summary statistic. This enables one to use analysis of variance to test for differences in log-evidences over models, relative to inter-subject differences. We then consider the same problem in Bayesian terms and describe a novel hierarchical model, which is optimised to furnish a probability density on the models themselves. This new variational Bayes method rests on treating the model as a random variable and estimating the parameters of a Dirichlet distribution which describes the probabilities for all models considered. These probabilities then define a multinomial distribution over model space, allowing one to compute how likely it is that a specific model generated the data of a randomly chosen subject as well as the exceedance probability of one model being more likely than any other model. Using empirical and synthetic data, we show that optimising a conditional density of the model probabilities, given the log-evidences for each model over subjects, is more informative and appropriate than both the GBF and frequentist tests of the log-evidences. In particular, we found that the hierarchical Bayesian approach is considerably more robust than either of the other
Improving randomness characterization through Bayesian model selection.
Díaz Hernández Rojas, Rafael; Solís, Aldo; Angulo Martínez, Alí M; U'Ren, Alfred B; Hirsch, Jorge G; Marsili, Matteo; Pérez Castillo, Isaac
2017-06-08
Random number generation plays an essential role in technology with important applications in areas ranging from cryptography to Monte Carlo methods, and other probabilistic algorithms. All such applications require high-quality sources of random numbers, yet effective methods for assessing whether a source produce truly random sequences are still missing. Current methods either do not rely on a formal description of randomness (NIST test suite) on the one hand, or are inapplicable in principle (the characterization derived from the Algorithmic Theory of Information), on the other, for they require testing all the possible computer programs that could produce the sequence to be analysed. Here we present a rigorous method that overcomes these problems based on Bayesian model selection. We derive analytic expressions for a model's likelihood which is then used to compute its posterior distribution. Our method proves to be more rigorous than NIST's suite and Borel-Normality criterion and its implementation is straightforward. We applied our method to an experimental device based on the process of spontaneous parametric downconversion to confirm it behaves as a genuine quantum random number generator. As our approach relies on Bayesian inference our scheme transcends individual sequence analysis, leading to a characterization of the source itself.
Discovery of low-redshift X-ray selected quasars - New clues to the QSO phenomenon
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Grindlay, J. E.; Forman, W. R.; Steiner, J. E.; Canizares, C. R.; Mcclintock, J. E.
1980-01-01
The identification of six X-ray sources discovered by the Einstein Observatory with X-ray quasars is reported, and the properties of these X-ray selected quasars are discussed. The four high-latitude fields of 1 sq deg each in which the Einstein imaging proportional counter detected serendipitous X-ray sources at intermediate exposures of 10,000 sec were observed by 4-m and 1.5-m telescopes, and optical sources with uv excesses and emission line spectra typical of many low-redshift quasars and Seyfert 1 galaxies were found within the 1-arcsec error boxes of the X-ray sources. All six quasars identified were found to be radio quiet, with low redshift and relatively faint optical magnitudes, and to be similar in space density, colors and magnitude versus redshift relation to an optically selected sample at the same mean magnitude. X-ray luminosity was found to be well correlated with both continuum and broad-line emission luminosities for the known radio-quiet quasars and Seyfert 1 galaxies, and it was observed that the five objects with the lowest redshifts have very similar X-ray/optical luminosity ratios despite tenfold variations in X-ray luminosity. It is concluded that photoionization by a continuum extending to X-ray energies is the dominant excitation mechanism in radio-quiet quasars.
The Quasar Fraction in Low-Frequency Selected Complete Samples and Implications for Unified Schemes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Willott, Chris J.; Rawlings, Steve; Blundell, Katherine M.; Lacy, Mark
2000-01-01
Low-frequency radio surveys are ideal for selecting orientation-independent samples of extragalactic sources because the sample members are selected by virtue of their isotropic steep-spectrum extended emission. We use the new 7C Redshift Survey along with the brighter 3CRR and 6C samples to investigate the fraction of objects with observed broad emission lines - the 'quasar fraction' - as a function of redshift and of radio and narrow emission line luminosity. We find that the quasar fraction is more strongly dependent upon luminosity (both narrow line and radio) than it is on redshift. Above a narrow [OII] emission line luminosity of log(base 10) (L(sub [OII])/W) approximately > 35 [or radio luminosity log(base 10) (L(sub 151)/ W/Hz.sr) approximately > 26.5], the quasar fraction is virtually independent of redshift and luminosity; this is consistent with a simple unified scheme with an obscuring torus with a half-opening angle theta(sub trans) approximately equal 53 deg. For objects with less luminous narrow lines, the quasar fraction is lower. We show that this is not due to the difficulty of detecting lower-luminosity broad emission lines in a less luminous, but otherwise similar, quasar population. We discuss evidence which supports at least two probable physical causes for the drop in quasar fraction at low luminosity: (i) a gradual decrease in theta(sub trans) and/or a gradual increase in the fraction of lightly-reddened (0 approximately < A(sub V) approximately < 5) lines-of-sight with decreasing quasar luminosity; and (ii) the emergence of a distinct second population of low luminosity radio sources which, like M8T, lack a well-fed quasar nucleus and may well lack a thick obscuring torus.
The Quasar Fraction in Low-Frequency Selected Complete Samples and Implications for Unified Schemes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Willott, Chris J.; Rawlings, Steve; Blundell, Katherine M.; Lacy, Mark
2000-01-01
Low-frequency radio surveys are ideal for selecting orientation-independent samples of extragalactic sources because the sample members are selected by virtue of their isotropic steep-spectrum extended emission. We use the new 7C Redshift Survey along with the brighter 3CRR and 6C samples to investigate the fraction of objects with observed broad emission lines - the 'quasar fraction' - as a function of redshift and of radio and narrow emission line luminosity. We find that the quasar fraction is more strongly dependent upon luminosity (both narrow line and radio) than it is on redshift. Above a narrow [OII] emission line luminosity of log(base 10) (L(sub [OII])/W) approximately > 35 [or radio luminosity log(base 10) (L(sub 151)/ W/Hz.sr) approximately > 26.5], the quasar fraction is virtually independent of redshift and luminosity; this is consistent with a simple unified scheme with an obscuring torus with a half-opening angle theta(sub trans) approximately equal 53 deg. For objects with less luminous narrow lines, the quasar fraction is lower. We show that this is not due to the difficulty of detecting lower-luminosity broad emission lines in a less luminous, but otherwise similar, quasar population. We discuss evidence which supports at least two probable physical causes for the drop in quasar fraction at low luminosity: (i) a gradual decrease in theta(sub trans) and/or a gradual increase in the fraction of lightly-reddened (0 approximately < A(sub V) approximately < 5) lines-of-sight with decreasing quasar luminosity; and (ii) the emergence of a distinct second population of low luminosity radio sources which, like M8T, lack a well-fed quasar nucleus and may well lack a thick obscuring torus.
Bayesian Item Selection in Constrained Adaptive Testing Using Shadow Tests
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Veldkamp, Bernard P.
2010-01-01
Application of Bayesian item selection criteria in computerized adaptive testing might result in improvement of bias and MSE of the ability estimates. The question remains how to apply Bayesian item selection criteria in the context of constrained adaptive testing, where large numbers of specifications have to be taken into account in the item…
Multi-dimensional Quasar Selection from Optical, Near-IR, and Astrometric Data
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Richards, Gordon T.; Mehta, S. S.; Peters, C. M.; Myers, A. D.; Ross, N. P.
2012-01-01
In the future, quasar selection will be much more multi-dimensional than it is today. Algorithms will go far beyond simple optical color or variability selection. Instead quasar selection will rely on simultaneous usage of multi-wavelength photometry, variability, and even astrometry. The SDSS Southern Equatorial Stripe (aka Stripe 82) is an ideal proving ground for such future algorithms. Herein we take the first steps in true multi-dimensional analysis by describing an algorithm that uses multi-epoch optical data from the SDSS, near-IR data from UKIDSS, and astrometric information to select quasars (and determine photometric redshifts). We present the resulting catalog and compare our results to existing spectroscopic surveys.
The characteristic halo masses of half-a-million WISE-selected quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
DiPompeo, M. A.; Hickox, R. C.; Eftekharzadeh, S.; Myers, A. D.
2017-08-01
Recent work has found evidence for a difference in the bias and dark matter halo masses of WISE (Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer)-selected obscured and unobscured quasars, implying a distinction between these populations beyond random line-of-sight effects. However, the significance of this difference in the most up-to-date measurements is relatively weak, at ˜2σ for individual measurements, but bolstered by agreement from different techniques, including angular clustering and cross-correlations with cosmic microwave background lensing maps. Here, we expand the footprint of previous work, aiming to improve the precision of both methods. In this larger area, we correct for position-dependent selection effects, in particular fluctuations of the WISE-selected quasar density as a function of Galactic latitude. We also measure the cross-correlation of the obscured and unobscured samples and confirm that they are well matched in redshift, both centred at z = 1. Combined with very similar detection fractions and magnitude distributions in the long-wavelength WISE bands, this redshift match strongly supports the fact that infrared selection identifies obscured and unobscured quasars of similar bolometric luminosity. Finally, we perform cross-correlations with confirmed spectroscopic quasars, again confirming the results from other methods - obscured quasars reside in haloes a factor of 3 times more massive than unobscured quasars. This difference is significant at the ˜5σ level when the measurements are combined, providing strong support for the idea that obscuration in at least some quasars is tied to the larger environment, and may have an evolutionary component.
A Study of Quasar Selection in the Dark Energy Survey Supernova fields
Tie, S.S.; et al.
2016-11-16
We present a study of quasar selection using the DES supernova fields. We used a quasar catalog from an overlapping portion of the SDSS Stripe 82 region to quantify the completeness and efficiency of selection methods involving color, probabilistic modeling, variability, and combinations of color/probabilistic modeling with variability. We only considered objects that appear as point sources in the DES images. We examine color selection methods based on the WISE mid-IR W1-W2 color, a mixture of WISE and DES colors (g-i and i-W1) and a mixture of VHS and DES colors (g-i and i-K). For probabilistic quasar selection, we used XDQSOz, an algorithm that employs an empirical multi-wavelength flux model of quasars to assign quasar probabilities. Our variability selection uses the multi-band chi2-probability that sources are constant in the DES Year 1 griz-band light curves. The completeness and efficiency are calculated relative to an underlying sample of point sources that are detected in the required selection bands and pass our data quality and photometric error cuts. We conduct our analyses at two magnitude limits, i<19.8 mag and i<22 mag. For sources with W1 and W2 detections, the W1-W2 color or XDQSOz method combined with variability gives the highest completenesses of >85% for both i-band magnitude limits and efficiencies of >80% to the bright limit and >60% to the faint limit; however, the giW1 and giW1+variability methods give the highest quasar surface densities. The XDQSOz method and combinations of W1W2/giW1/XDQSOz with variability are among the better selection methods when both high completeness and high efficiency are desired. We also present the OzDES Quasar Catalog of 1,263 spectroscopically-confirmed quasars taken by the OzDES survey. The catalog includes quasars with redshifts up to z~4 and brighter than i=22 mag, although the catalog is not complete up this magnitude limit.
A Study of Quasar Selection in the Supernova Fields of the Dark Energy Survey
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tie, S. S.; Martini, P.; Mudd, D.; Ostrovski, F.; Reed, S. L.; Lidman, C.; Kochanek, C.; Davis, T. M.; Sharp, R.; Uddin, S.; King, A.; Wester, W.; Tucker, B. E.; Tucker, D. L.; Buckley-Geer, E.; Carollo, D.; Childress, M.; Glazebrook, K.; Hinton, S. R.; Lewis, G.; Macaulay, E.; O'Neill, C. R.; Abbott, T. M. C.; Abdalla, F. B.; Annis, J.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bertin, E.; Brooks, D.; Carnero Rosell, A.; Carrasco Kind, M.; Carretero, J.; Cunha, C. E.; da Costa, L. N.; DePoy, D. L.; Desai, S.; Doel, P.; Eifler, T. F.; Evrard, A. E.; Finley, D. A.; Flaugher, B.; Fosalba, P.; Frieman, J.; García-Bellido, J.; Gaztanaga, E.; Gerdes, D. W.; Goldstein, D. A.; Gruen, D.; Gruendl, R. A.; Gutierrez, G.; Honscheid, K.; James, D. J.; Kuehn, K.; Kuropatkin, N.; Lima, M.; Maia, M. A. G.; Marshall, J. L.; Menanteau, F.; Miller, C. J.; Miquel, R.; Nichol, R. C.; Nord, B.; Ogando, R.; Plazas, A. A.; Romer, A. K.; Sanchez, E.; Santiago, B.; Scarpine, V.; Schubnell, M.; Sevilla-Noarbe, I.; Smith, R. C.; Soares-Santos, M.; Sobreira, F.; Suchyta, E.; Swanson, M. E. C.; Tarle, G.; Thomas, D.; Walker, A. R.; DES Collaboration
2017-03-01
We present a study of quasar selection using the supernova fields of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We used a quasar catalog from an overlapping portion of the SDSS Stripe 82 region to quantify the completeness and efficiency of selection methods involving color, probabilistic modeling, variability, and combinations of color/probabilistic modeling with variability. In all cases, we considered only objects that appear as point sources in the DES images. We examine color selection methods based on the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) mid-IR W1-W2 color, a mixture of WISE and DES colors (g - i and i-W1), and a mixture of Vista Hemisphere Survey and DES colors (g - i and i - K). For probabilistic quasar selection, we used XDQSO, an algorithm that employs an empirical multi-wavelength flux model of quasars to assign quasar probabilities. Our variability selection uses the multi-band χ 2-probability that sources are constant in the DES Year 1 griz-band light curves. The completeness and efficiency are calculated relative to an underlying sample of point sources that are detected in the required selection bands and pass our data quality and photometric error cuts. We conduct our analyses at two magnitude limits, i < 19.8 mag and i < 22 mag. For the subset of sources with W1 and W2 detections, the W1-W2 color or XDQSOz method combined with variability gives the highest completenesses of >85% for both i-band magnitude limits and efficiencies of >80% to the bright limit and >60% to the faint limit; however, the giW1 and giW1+variability methods give the highest quasar surface densities. The XDQSOz method and combinations of W1W2/giW1/XDQSOz with variability are among the better selection methods when both high completeness and high efficiency are desired. We also present the OzDES Quasar Catalog of 1263 spectroscopically confirmed quasars from three years of OzDES observation in the 30 deg2 of the DES supernova fields. The catalog includes quasars with redshifts up
A Study of Quasar Selection in the Supernova Fields of the Dark Energy Survey
Tie, S. S.; Martini, P.; Mudd, D.; ...
2017-02-14
We present a study of quasar selection using the DES supernova fields. We used a quasar catalog from an overlapping portion of the SDSS Stripe 82 region to quantify the completeness and efficiency of selection methods involving color, probabilistic modeling, variability, and combinations of color/probabilistic modeling with variability. We only considered objects that appear as point sources in the DES images. We examine color selection methods based on the WISE mid-IR W1-W2 color, a mixture of WISE and DES colors (g-i and i-W1) and a mixture of VHS and DES colors (g-i and i-K). For probabilistic quasar selection, we usedmore » XDQSOz, an algorithm that employs an empirical multi-wavelength flux model of quasars to assign quasar probabilities. Our variability selection uses the multi-band chi2-probability that sources are constant in the DES Year 1 griz-band light curves. The completeness and efficiency are calculated relative to an underlying sample of point sources that are detected in the required selection bands and pass our data quality and photometric error cuts. We conduct our analyses at two magnitude limits, i<19.8 mag and i<22 mag. For sources with W1 and W2 detections, the W1-W2 color or XDQSOz method combined with variability gives the highest completenesses of >85% for both i-band magnitude limits and efficiencies of >80% to the bright limit and >60% to the faint limit; however, the giW1 and giW1+variability methods give the highest quasar surface densities. The XDQSOz method and combinations of W1W2/giW1/XDQSOz with variability are among the better selection methods when both high completeness and high efficiency are desired. We also present the OzDES Quasar Catalog of 1,263 spectroscopically-confirmed quasars taken by the OzDES survey. The catalog includes quasars with redshifts up to z~4 and brighter than i=22 mag, although the catalog is not complete up this magnitude limit.« less
Cherinka, B.; Schulte-Ladbeck, R. E.
2011-10-15
The aim of this project is to identify low-redshift host galaxies of quasar absorption-line systems by selecting galaxies that are seen in projection onto quasar sightlines. To this end, we use the Seventh Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey to construct a parent sample of 97,489 galaxy/quasar projections at impact parameters of up to 100 kpc to the foreground galaxy. We then search the quasar spectra for absorption-line systems of Ca II and Na I within {+-}500 km s{sup -1} of the galaxy's velocity. This yields 92 Ca II and 16 Na I absorption systems. We find that most of the Ca II and Na I systems are sightlines through the Galactic disk, through high-velocity cloud complexes in our halo, or Virgo Cluster sightlines. Placing constraints on the absorption line rest equivalent width significance ({>=}3.0{sigma}), the local standard of rest velocity along the sightline ({>=}345 km s{sup -1}), and the ratio of the impact parameter to the galaxy optical radius ({<=}5.0), we identify four absorption-line systems that are associated with low-redshift galaxies at high confidence, consisting of two Ca II systems (one of which also shows Na I) and two Na I systems. These four systems arise in blue, {approx}L*{sub r} galaxies. Tables of the 108 absorption systems are provided to facilitate future follow-up.
Spatially-dependent Bayesian model selection for disease mapping.
Carroll, Rachel; Lawson, Andrew B; Faes, Christel; Kirby, Russell S; Aregay, Mehreteab; Watjou, Kevin
2016-01-01
In disease mapping where predictor effects are to be modeled, it is often the case that sets of predictors are fixed, and the aim is to choose between fixed model sets. Model selection methods, both Bayesian model selection and Bayesian model averaging, are approaches within the Bayesian paradigm for achieving this aim. In the spatial context, model selection could have a spatial component in the sense that some models may be more appropriate for certain areas of a study region than others. In this work, we examine the use of spatially referenced Bayesian model averaging and Bayesian model selection via a large-scale simulation study accompanied by a small-scale case study. Our results suggest that BMS performs well when a strong regression signature is found.
Probabilistic Selection of High-redshfit Quasars with Subaru / Hyper Suprime-Cam Survey
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Onoue, Masafusa
2015-08-01
High-redshift quasrs are an important probe of the distant Universe. They enable observational studies of the early growth of supermassive blackholes, cosmic reionization, chemical enrichment of host galaxies, and so on. We are now starting a new ground-breaking survey of high-redsfhit quasars (z>6) using the exquisite imaging data provided by the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) Subaru Strategic Program (SSP) Survey. With the extremely wide-area coverage and high sensitivity thorugh five optical bands (1,400 deg2 to the depth of r~26 in Wide layer), it is one of the most powerful contemporary surveys that makes it possible for the HSC-AGN collaboration to increase the number of z>6 quasars by almost an order of magnitude, i.e., 300 at z~6 and 50 at z~7 based on the current estimate of the QLF at z>6 (Willott et al. 2010).One of the biggest challenges in the candidate selection is the significant contamination of Galactic brown dwarfs, which have the same point-like appearance as and similarly red colors to z>6 quasars. To overcome this issue, we have developed template SED fitting method optimized to high-redshift quasars selection for constructing the largest z>6 quasar sample with the HSC survey. Since 500 deg2 of the footprints of the HSC survey overlaps with the VISTA/VIKING survey, it is expected that z>6 quasars, with characteristic large Lyman break and flat red-continuum in its SED, can be separated out from contaminating sources by applying SED fitting with multi-wavelength photometric data. In practice, its application with 27 photometric bands to the COSMOS quasars at 3
The Composite Spectrum of BOSS Quasars Selected for Studies of the Lyα Forest
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Harris, David W.; Jensen, Trey W.; Suzuki, Nao; Bautista, Julian E.; Dawson, Kyle S.; Vivek, M.; Brownstein, Joel R.; Ge, Jian; Hamann, Fred; Herbst, H.; Jiang, Linhua; Moran, Sarah E.; Myers, Adam D.; Olmstead, Matthew D.; Schneider, Donald P.
2016-06-01
The Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) has collected more than 150,000 2.1 ≤ z ≤ 3.5 quasar spectra since 2009. Using this unprecedented sample, we create a composite spectrum in the rest-frame of 102,150 quasar spectra from 800-3300 Å at a signal-to-noise ratio close to 1000 per pixel (Δv of 69 km s-1). Included in this analysis is a correction to account for flux calibration residuals in the BOSS spectrophotometry. We determine the spectral index as a function of redshift of the full sample, warp the composite spectrum to match the median spectral index, and compare the resulting spectrum to Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) photometry used in target selection. The quasar composite matches the color of the quasar population to 0.02 mag in g - r, 0.03 mag in r - i, and 0.01 mag in i - z over the redshift range 2.2 < z < 2.6. The composite spectrum deviates from the imaging photometry by 0.05 mag around z = 2.7, likely due to differences in target selection as the quasar colors become similar to the stellar locus at this redshift. Finally, we characterize the line features in the high signal-to-noise composite and identify nine faint lines not found in the previous composite spectrum from SDSS.
Bayesian analysis. II. Signal detection and model selection
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bretthorst, G. Larry
In the preceding. paper, Bayesian analysis was applied to the parameter estimation problem, given quadrature NMR data. Here Bayesian analysis is extended to the problem of selecting the model which is most probable in view of the data and all the prior information. In addition to the analytic calculation, two examples are given. The first example demonstrates how to use Bayesian probability theory to detect small signals in noise. The second example uses Bayesian probability theory to compute the probability of the number of decaying exponentials in simulated T1 data. The Bayesian answer to this question is essentially a microcosm of the scientific method and a quantitative statement of Ockham's razor: theorize about possible models, compare these to experiment, and select the simplest model that "best" fits the data.
Induction of selective Bayesian networks from data
Singh, M.
1996-12-31
Bayesian networks, which provide a compact graphical way to express complex probabilistic relationships among several random variables, are rapidly becoming the tool of choice for dealing with uncertainty in knowledge based systems. Amongst the many advantages offered by Bayesian networks over other representations such as decision trees and neural networks are the ease of comprehensibility to humans, effectiveness as complex decision making models and elicitability of informative prior distributions.
A guide to Bayesian model selection for ecologists
Hooten, Mevin B.; Hobbs, N.T.
2015-01-01
The steady upward trend in the use of model selection and Bayesian methods in ecological research has made it clear that both approaches to inference are important for modern analysis of models and data. However, in teaching Bayesian methods and in working with our research colleagues, we have noticed a general dissatisfaction with the available literature on Bayesian model selection and multimodel inference. Students and researchers new to Bayesian methods quickly find that the published advice on model selection is often preferential in its treatment of options for analysis, frequently advocating one particular method above others. The recent appearance of many articles and textbooks on Bayesian modeling has provided welcome background on relevant approaches to model selection in the Bayesian framework, but most of these are either very narrowly focused in scope or inaccessible to ecologists. Moreover, the methodological details of Bayesian model selection approaches are spread thinly throughout the literature, appearing in journals from many different fields. Our aim with this guide is to condense the large body of literature on Bayesian approaches to model selection and multimodel inference and present it specifically for quantitative ecologists as neutrally as possible. We also bring to light a few important and fundamental concepts relating directly to model selection that seem to have gone unnoticed in the ecological literature. Throughout, we provide only a minimal discussion of philosophy, preferring instead to examine the breadth of approaches as well as their practical advantages and disadvantages. This guide serves as a reference for ecologists using Bayesian methods, so that they can better understand their options and can make an informed choice that is best aligned with their goals for inference.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hartnett, J. G.
2009-11-01
Discrete Fourier analysis on the quasar number count, as a function of redshift, z, calculated from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR6 release appears to indicate that quasars have preferred periodic redshifts with redshift intervals of 0.258, 0.312, 0.44, 0.63, and 1.1. However the same periods are found in the mean of the zConf parameter used to flag the reliability of the spectroscopic measurements. It follows that these redshift periods must result from some selection effect, as yet undetermined. It does not signal any intrinsic (quantized) redshifts in the quasars in Sloan survey data. However this result does not rule out the possibility as found in earlier studies of other data.
THE SDSS-III BARYON OSCILLATION SPECTROSCOPIC SURVEY: QUASAR TARGET SELECTION FOR DATA RELEASE NINE
Ross, Nicholas P.; Kirkpatrick, Jessica A.; Carithers, William C.; Ho, Shirley; Myers, Adam D.; Sheldon, Erin S.; Yeche, Christophe; Aubourg, Eric; Strauss, Michael A.; Lee, Khee-Gan; Bovy, Jo; Blanton, Michael R.; Hogg, David W.; Richards, Gordon T.; Brandt, W. N.; Croft, Rupert A. C.; Da Silva, Robert; Dawson, Kyle; Eisenstein, Daniel J.; Hennawi, Joseph F.; and others
2012-03-01
The SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS), a five-year spectroscopic survey of 10,000 deg{sup 2}, achieved first light in late 2009. One of the key goals of BOSS is to measure the signature of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAOs) in the distribution of Ly{alpha} absorption from the spectra of a sample of {approx}150,000 z > 2.2 quasars. Along with measuring the angular diameter distance at z Almost-Equal-To 2.5, BOSS will provide the first direct measurement of the expansion rate of the universe at z > 2. One of the biggest challenges in achieving this goal is an efficient target selection algorithm for quasars in the redshift range 2.2 < z < 3.5, where their colors tend to overlap those of the far more numerous stars. During the first year of the BOSS survey, quasar target selection (QTS) methods were developed and tested to meet the requirement of delivering at least 15 quasars deg{sup -2} in this redshift range, with a goal of 20 out of 40 targets deg{sup -2} allocated to the quasar survey. To achieve these surface densities, the magnitude limit of the quasar targets was set at g {<=} 22.0 or r {<=} 21.85. While detection of the BAO signature in the distribution of Ly{alpha} absorption in quasar spectra does not require a uniform target selection algorithm, many other astrophysical studies do. We have therefore defined a uniformly selected subsample of 20 targets deg{sup -2}, for which the selection efficiency is just over 50% ({approx}10 z > 2.20 quasars deg{sup -2}). This 'CORE' subsample will be fixed for Years Two through Five of the survey. For the remaining 20 targets deg{sup -2}, we will continue to develop improved selection techniques, including the use of additional data sets beyond the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) imaging data. In this paper, we describe the evolution and implementation of the BOSS QTS algorithms during the first two years of BOSS operations (through 2011 July), in support of the science investigations based on
The Einstein database of IPC x-ray observations of optically selected and radio-selected quasars, 1.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wilkes, Belinda J.; Tananbaum, Harvey; Worrall, D. M.; Avni, Yoram; Oey, M. S.; Flanagan, Joan
1994-05-01
We present the first volume of the Einstein quasar database. The database includes estimates of the X-ray count rates, fluxes, and luminosities for 514 quasars and Seyfert 1 galaxies observed with the Imaging Proportional Counter (IPC) aboard the Einstein Observatory. All were previously known optically selected or radio-selected objects, and most were the targets of the X-ray observations. The X-ray properties of the Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) have been derived by reanalyzing the IPC data in a systematic manner to provide a uniform database for general use by the astronomical community. We use the database to extend earlier quasar luminosity studies which were made using only a subset of the currently available data. The database can be accessed on internet via the SAO Einstein on-line system ('Einline') and is available in ASCII format on magnetic tape and DOS diskette.
The Einstein database of IPC x-ray observations of optically selected and radio-selected quasars, 1.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wilkes, Belinda J.; Tananbaum, Harvey; Worrall, D. M.; Avni, Yoram; Oey, M. S.; Flanagan, Joan
1994-01-01
We present the first volume of the Einstein quasar database. The database includes estimates of the X-ray count rates, fluxes, and luminosities for 514 quasars and Seyfert 1 galaxies observed with the Imaging Proportional Counter (IPC) aboard the Einstein Observatory. All were previously known optically selected or radio-selected objects, and most were the targets of the X-ray observations. The X-ray properties of the Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) have been derived by reanalyzing the IPC data in a systematic manner to provide a uniform database for general use by the astronomical community. We use the database to extend earlier quasar luminosity studies which were made using only a subset of the currently available data. The database can be accessed on internet via the SAO Einstein on-line system ('Einline') and is available in ASCII format on magnetic tape and DOS diskette.
NuSTAR Observations of Heavily Obscured Quasars Selected by WISE
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yan, Wei
2017-08-01
A key goal of the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR) program is to find and characterize heavily obscured quasars, luminous accreting supermassive black holes hidden by gas and dust. Based on mid-infrared (IR) photometry from Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) and optical photometry from the Sloan Digital Sky Surveys, we have selected a large population of obscured quasars; here we report the NuSTAR observations of four WISE-selected heavily obscured quasars for which we have optical spectroscopy from the Southern African Large Telescope and KECK Telescope. Three of four objects are undetected with NuSTAR, while the fourth has only a marginal detection. We confirm our objects have observed hard X-ray (10-40 keV) luminosities at or below ~1043 erg s-1. We compare IR and X-ray luminosities to obtain estimates of hydrogen column NH based on the suppression of the hard X-ray emission. We estimate NH to be at or greater than 1025 cm-2, confirming that WISE and optical selection can identify very heavily obscured quasars that may be missed in X-ray surveys.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Heintz, K. E.; Fynbo, J. P. U.; Møller, P.; Milvang-Jensen, B.; Zabl, J.; Maddox, N.; Krogager, J.-K.; Geier, S.; Vestergaard, M.; Noterdaeme, P.; Ledoux, C.
2016-10-01
The sub-population of quasars reddened by intrinsic or intervening clouds of dust are known to be underrepresented in optical quasar surveys. By defining a complete parent sample of the brightest and spatially unresolved quasars in the COSMOS field, we quantify to which extent this sub-population is fundamental to our understanding of the true population of quasars. By using the available multiwavelength data of various surveys in the COSMOS field, we built a parent sample of 33 quasars brighter than J = 20 mag, identified by reliable X-ray to radio wavelength selection techniques. Spectroscopic follow-up with the NOT/ALFOSC was carried out for four candidate quasars that had not been targeted previously to obtain a 100% redshift completeness of the sample. The population of high AV quasars (HAQs), a specific sub-population of quasars selected from optical/near-infrared photometry, some of which were shown to be missed in large optical surveys such as SDSS, is found to contribute 21%+9-5 of the parent sample. The full population of bright spatially unresolved quasars represented by our parent sample consists of 39%+9-8 reddened quasars defined by having AV > 0.1, and 21%+9-5 of the sample having E(B-V) > 0.1 assuming the extinction curve of the Small Magellanic Cloud. We show that the HAQ selection works well for selecting reddened quasars, but some are missed because their optical spectra are too blue to pass the g-r color cut in the HAQ selection. This is either due to a low degree of dust reddening or anomalous spectra. We find that the fraction of quasars with contributing light from the host galaxy, causing observed extended spatial morphology, is most dominant at z ≲ 1. At higher redshifts the population of spatially unresolved quasars selected by our parent sample is found to be representative of the full population of bright active galactic nuclei at J< 20 mag. This work quantifies the bias against reddened quasars in studies that are based solely on
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Palanque-Delabrouille, N.; Magneville, Ch.; Yèche, Ch.; Pâris, I.; Petitjean, P.; Burtin, E.; Dawson, K.; McGreer, I.; Myers, A. D.; Rossi, G.; Schlegel, D.; Schneider, D.; Streblyanska, A.; Tinker, J.
2016-03-01
The extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-IV/eBOSS) has an extensive quasar program that combines several selection methods. Among these, the photometric variability technique provides highly uniform samples, which are unaffected by the redshift bias of traditional optical-color selections, when z = 2.7-3.5 quasars cross the stellar locus or when host galaxy light affects quasar colors at z< 0.9. We present the variability selection of quasars in eBOSS, focusing on a specific program that led to a sample of 13 876 quasars to gdered = 22.5 over a 94.5 deg2 region in Stripe 82, which has an areal density 1.5 times higher than over the rest of the eBOSS footprint. We use these variability-selected data to provide a new measurement of the quasar luminosity function (QLF) in the redshift range of 0.68
Long-Term Optical Variability of Radio-selected Quasars from the FIRST Survey
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Helfand, David J.; Stone, Remington P. S.; Willman, Beth; White, Richard L.; Becker, Robert H.; Price, Trevor; Gregg, Michael D.; McMahon, Richard G.
2001-04-01
We have obtained single-epoch optical photometry for 202 quasars, taken from the FIRST Bright Quasar Survey, which span a wide range in radio loudness. Comparison with the magnitudes of these objects on the POSS-I plates provides by far the largest sample of long-term variability amplitudes for radio-selected quasars yet produced. We find the quasars to be more variable in the blue than in the red band, consistent with work on optically selected samples. The previously noted trend of decreasing variability with increasing optical luminosity applies only to radio-quiet objects. Furthermore, we do not confirm a rise in variability amplitude with redshift, nor do we see any dependence on radio flux or luminosity. The variability over a radio-optical flux ratio range spanning a factor of 60,000 from radio-quiet to extreme radio-loud objects is largely constant, although there is a suggestion of greater variability in the extreme radio-loud objects. We demonstrate the importance of Malmquist bias in variability studies and develop a procedure to correct for the bias in order to reveal the underlying variability properties of the sample.
Bayesian natural selection and the evolution of perceptual systems.
Geisler, Wilson S; Diehl, Randy L
2002-01-01
In recent years, there has been much interest in characterizing statistical properties of natural stimuli in order to better understand the design of perceptual systems. A fruitful approach has been to compare the processing of natural stimuli in real perceptual systems with that of ideal observers derived within the framework of Bayesian statistical decision theory. While this form of optimization theory has provided a deeper understanding of the information contained in natural stimuli as well as of the computational principles employed in perceptual systems, it does not directly consider the process of natural selection, which is ultimately responsible for design. Here we propose a formal framework for analysing how the statistics of natural stimuli and the process of natural selection interact to determine the design of perceptual systems. The framework consists of two complementary components. The first is a maximum fitness ideal observer, a standard Bayesian ideal observer with a utility function appropriate for natural selection. The second component is a formal version of natural selection based upon Bayesian statistical decision theory. Maximum fitness ideal observers and Bayesian natural selection are demonstrated in several examples. We suggest that the Bayesian approach is appropriate not only for the study of perceptual systems but also for the study of many other systems in biology. PMID:12028784
SDSS J131339.98+515128.3: A new GravitationallyLensed Quasar Selected Based on Near-infrared Excess
Ofek, E.O.; Oguri, M.; Jackson, N.; Inada, N.; Kayo, I.
2007-09-28
We report the discovery of a new gravitationally lensed quasar, SDSS J131339.98+515128.3, at a redshift of 1:875 with an image separation of 1: 0024. The lensing galaxy is clearly detected in visible-light follow-up observations. We also identify three absorption-line doublets in the spectra of the lensed quasar images, from which we measure the lens redshift to be 0:194. Like several other known lenses, the lensed quasar images have different continuum slopes. This difference is probably the result of reddening and microlensing in the lensing galaxy. The lensed quasar was selected by correlating Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) spectroscopic quasars with Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS) sources and choosing quasars that show near-infrared (IR) excess. The near-IR excess can originate, for example, from the contribution of the lensing galaxy at near-IR wavelengths. We show that the near-IR excess technique is indeed an efficient method to identify lensed systems from a large sample of quasars.
Bayesian model selection for LISA pathfinder
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Karnesis, Nikolaos; Nofrarias, Miquel; Sopuerta, Carlos F.; Gibert, Ferran; Armano, Michele; Audley, Heather; Congedo, Giuseppe; Diepholz, Ingo; Ferraioli, Luigi; Hewitson, Martin; Hueller, Mauro; Korsakova, Natalia; McNamara, Paul W.; Plagnol, Eric; Vitale, Stefano
2014-03-01
The main goal of the LISA Pathfinder (LPF) mission is to fully characterize the acceleration noise models and to test key technologies for future space-based gravitational-wave observatories similar to the eLISA concept. The data analysis team has developed complex three-dimensional models of the LISA Technology Package (LTP) experiment onboard the LPF. These models are used for simulations, but, more importantly, they will be used for parameter estimation purposes during flight operations. One of the tasks of the data analysis team is to identify the physical effects that contribute significantly to the properties of the instrument noise. A way of approaching this problem is to recover the essential parameters of a LTP model fitting the data. Thus, we want to define the simplest model that efficiently explains the observations. To do so, adopting a Bayesian framework, one has to estimate the so-called Bayes factor between two competing models. In our analysis, we use three main different methods to estimate it: the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo method, the Schwarz criterion, and the Laplace approximation. They are applied to simulated LPF experiments in which the most probable LTP model that explains the observations is recovered. The same type of analysis presented in this paper is expected to be followed during flight operations. Moreover, the correlation of the output of the aforementioned methods with the design of the experiment is explored.
Empirical evaluation of scoring functions for Bayesian network model selection.
Liu, Zhifa; Malone, Brandon; Yuan, Changhe
2012-01-01
In this work, we empirically evaluate the capability of various scoring functions of Bayesian networks for recovering true underlying structures. Similar investigations have been carried out before, but they typically relied on approximate learning algorithms to learn the network structures. The suboptimal structures found by the approximation methods have unknown quality and may affect the reliability of their conclusions. Our study uses an optimal algorithm to learn Bayesian network structures from datasets generated from a set of gold standard Bayesian networks. Because all optimal algorithms always learn equivalent networks, this ensures that only the choice of scoring function affects the learned networks. Another shortcoming of the previous studies stems from their use of random synthetic networks as test cases. There is no guarantee that these networks reflect real-world data. We use real-world data to generate our gold-standard structures, so our experimental design more closely approximates real-world situations. A major finding of our study suggests that, in contrast to results reported by several prior works, the Minimum Description Length (MDL) (or equivalently, Bayesian information criterion (BIC)) consistently outperforms other scoring functions such as Akaike's information criterion (AIC), Bayesian Dirichlet equivalence score (BDeu), and factorized normalized maximum likelihood (fNML) in recovering the underlying Bayesian network structures. We believe this finding is a result of using both datasets generated from real-world applications rather than from random processes used in previous studies and learning algorithms to select high-scoring structures rather than selecting random models. Other findings of our study support existing work, e.g., large sample sizes result in learning structures closer to the true underlying structure; the BDeu score is sensitive to the parameter settings; and the fNML performs pretty well on small datasets. We also
Empirical evaluation of scoring functions for Bayesian network model selection
2012-01-01
In this work, we empirically evaluate the capability of various scoring functions of Bayesian networks for recovering true underlying structures. Similar investigations have been carried out before, but they typically relied on approximate learning algorithms to learn the network structures. The suboptimal structures found by the approximation methods have unknown quality and may affect the reliability of their conclusions. Our study uses an optimal algorithm to learn Bayesian network structures from datasets generated from a set of gold standard Bayesian networks. Because all optimal algorithms always learn equivalent networks, this ensures that only the choice of scoring function affects the learned networks. Another shortcoming of the previous studies stems from their use of random synthetic networks as test cases. There is no guarantee that these networks reflect real-world data. We use real-world data to generate our gold-standard structures, so our experimental design more closely approximates real-world situations. A major finding of our study suggests that, in contrast to results reported by several prior works, the Minimum Description Length (MDL) (or equivalently, Bayesian information criterion (BIC)) consistently outperforms other scoring functions such as Akaike's information criterion (AIC), Bayesian Dirichlet equivalence score (BDeu), and factorized normalized maximum likelihood (fNML) in recovering the underlying Bayesian network structures. We believe this finding is a result of using both datasets generated from real-world applications rather than from random processes used in previous studies and learning algorithms to select high-scoring structures rather than selecting random models. Other findings of our study support existing work, e.g., large sample sizes result in learning structures closer to the true underlying structure; the BDeu score is sensitive to the parameter settings; and the fNML performs pretty well on small datasets. We also
Dynamic Dimensionality Selection for Bayesian Classifier Ensembles
2015-03-19
data. It exploited the capacity of generative learning to efficently extract useful summary statistics and used discriminative learning to meld them...into a highly accurate classifier. Two classes of learning algorithm were developed. The first uses discriminative learning to select a generative...attribute that is finally selected. The second combines generatively and discriminatively learned parameters (WANBIA, WANBIA-C,WANJE). It uses discriminative
Emission-Line Properties and Selection Effects for z > 4 Quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Constantin, A.; Shields, J. C.; Hamann, F.
2000-12-01
A growing number of QSOs are now known to exist at redshifts beyond 4, and these sources provide important opportunities for better understanding of the astrophysics of galaxy formation and evolution. To date there are ~ 130 known QSOs with z > 4, but only limited efforts have been made to survey systematically the emission-line properties of these objects and/or the selection effects related with the techniques by which they were discovered. In this poster we will present results of a program of high signal-to-noise spectroscopy for 44 QSOs using the MMT and Keck observatories. The majority of these sources were originally identified via color selection techiques. The quasar spectra cover wavelengths between 1100 Å and 1700 Å in the rest frame, for sources spanning a luminosity range of ~ 2 orders of magnitude. An examination of the luminosity dependence of the emission features reveals evidence for a weak Baldwin effect. Spectrum composites for the whole data set and for subsets are obtained and analysed in order to investigate the spectral dependence on selection effects. The results show a tendency for stronger C IV emission lines for color-selected quasars, than for grism-selected objects.
Bayesian Variable Selection in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
Negrín, Miguel A.; Vázquez-Polo, Francisco J.; Martel, María; Moreno, Elías; Girón, Francisco J.
2010-01-01
Linear regression models are often used to represent the cost and effectiveness of medical treatment. The covariates used may include sociodemographic variables, such as age, gender or race; clinical variables, such as initial health status, years of treatment or the existence of concomitant illnesses; and a binary variable indicating the treatment received. However, most studies estimate only one model, which usually includes all the covariates. This procedure ignores the question of uncertainty in model selection. In this paper, we examine four alternative Bayesian variable selection methods that have been proposed. In this analysis, we estimate the inclusion probability of each covariate in the real model conditional on the data. Variable selection can be useful for estimating incremental effectiveness and incremental cost, through Bayesian model averaging, as well as for subgroup analysis. PMID:20617047
Bayesian model evidence for order selection and correlation testing.
Johnston, Leigh A; Mareels, Iven M Y; Egan, Gary F
2011-01-01
Model selection is a critical component of data analysis procedures, and is particularly difficult for small numbers of observations such as is typical of functional MRI datasets. In this paper we derive two Bayesian evidence-based model selection procedures that exploit the existence of an analytic form for the linear Gaussian model class. Firstly, an evidence information criterion is proposed as a model order selection procedure for auto-regressive models, outperforming the commonly employed Akaike and Bayesian information criteria in simulated data. Secondly, an evidence-based method for testing change in linear correlation between datasets is proposed, which is demonstrated to outperform both the traditional statistical test of the null hypothesis of no correlation change and the likelihood ratio test.
Optical monitoring of selected quasars, Lacertids, and active galaxies in blue light
Corso, G.J.; Schultz, J.; Dey, A.
1986-12-01
Optical photometry in blue light of selected bright quasars, Lacertids, active galaxies, and X-ray sources with a 1-m f/15 Cassegrain reflector is reported. The observed magnitude and amplitude for 3C 273, 3C 351, 3C 454.3, 3C 66A, PKS 2141 + 17, BL Lac, OJ287, and Zw0039.5 + 004 are described. The techniques used to collect and reduce the data are discussed. Tables of observed blue magnitudes for the data are provided. 18 references.
Selecting Bayesian priors for stochastic rates using extended functional models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gibson, Gavin J.
2003-04-01
We propose an extension to the functional modelling methods described by Dawid and Stone (1982 Ann. Stat. 10 1119-38) that leads naturally to a method for selecting vague parameter priors for Bayesian analyses involving stochastic population models. Motivated by applications from quantum optics and epidemiology, we focus on analysing observed sequences of event times obeying a non-homogeneous Poisson process, although the techniques are more widely applicable. The extended functional modelling approach is illustrated for the particular case of Bayesian estimation of the death rate in the immigration-death model from observation of the death times only. It is shown that the prior selected naturally leads to a well defined posterior density for parameters and avoids some undesirable pathologies reported by Gibson and Renshaw (2001a Inverse Problems 17 455-66, 2001b Stat. Comput. 11 347-58) for the case of exponential priors. Some limitations of the approach are also discussed.
The Ultimate Multiwavelength Quasar Survey (ROSES-2011)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Richards, Gordon
Our objective is to create the ultimate multi-wavelength quasar catalog by combining moderatelydeep, wide-field data in the NASA archives (from GALEX, 2MASS, Spitzer, and WISE) with public optical imaging data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. This catalog will extend from deep samples with signficant multi-wavelength coverage in a small area (e.g., SDSS "Stripe 82"), to shallower samples over a larger area with less multiwavelength coverage. Our efforts are a crucial step to bridging between existing spectroscopic surveys and future photometric surveys. Using this catalog, we will investigate the clustering and luminosity function of faint (i Â»21-23), high-redshift (z > 2.5) quasars in order to break degeneracies between different models of "feedback" from active galactic nuclei (AGN). Our approach is unique in its application of a Bayesian quasar selection algorithm that has been demonstrated to out-perform standard methods and that has been tested on multi-wavelength data. Once quasars have been identified, we will apply our existing photometric redshift algorithms. Richards and Myers are among the world's experts in finding quasars and using their clustering and luminosity function to do cutting-edge science. Quasar clustering analysis will make use of the team's existing algorithms, which are designed to handle the inherently photometric nature of the quasar sample. The quasar luminosity function algorithms are already in place, allowing for timely completion of this project once the multi-wavelength NASA data have been incorporated. As with all quasar catalogs that represent the next generation in improvements, this multi-wavelength quasar catalog will have an impact that extends far beyond our own science goals. This time is ripe for the construction of such a catalog as only in the past year has this dataset covered such a large range of wavelengths and area. In terms of our own science, understanding the form of AGN feedback and the extent to which it
Manoj Kumar, Palanivelu; Karthikeyan, Chandrabose; Hari Narayana Moorthy, Narayana Subbiah; Trivedi, Piyush
2006-11-01
In the present paper, quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) approach was applied to understand the affinity and selectivity of a novel series of triaryl imidazole derivatives towards glucagon receptor. Statistically significant and highly predictive QSARs were derived for glucagon receptor inhibition by triaryl imidazoles using QuaSAR descriptors of molecular operating environment (MOE) employing computer-assisted multiple regression procedure. The generated QSAR models revealed that factors related to hydrophobicity, molecular shape and geometry predominantly influences glucagon receptor binding affinity of the triaryl imidazoles indicating the relevance of shape specific steric interactions between the molecule and the receptor. Further, QSAR models formulated for selective inhibition of glucagon receptor over p38 mitogen activated protein (MAP) kinase of the compounds in the series highlights that the same structural features, which influence the glucagon receptor affinity, also contribute to their selective inhibition.
Bayesian accounts of covert selective attention: A tutorial review.
Vincent, Benjamin T
2015-05-01
Decision making and optimal observer models offer an important theoretical approach to the study of covert selective attention. While their probabilistic formulation allows quantitative comparison to human performance, the models can be complex and their insights are not always immediately apparent. Part 1 establishes the theoretical appeal of the Bayesian approach, and introduces the way in which probabilistic approaches can be applied to covert search paradigms. Part 2 presents novel formulations of Bayesian models of 4 important covert attention paradigms, illustrating optimal observer predictions over a range of experimental manipulations. Graphical model notation is used to present models in an accessible way and Supplementary Code is provided to help bridge the gap between model theory and practical implementation. Part 3 reviews a large body of empirical and modelling evidence showing that many experimental phenomena in the domain of covert selective attention are a set of by-products. These effects emerge as the result of observers conducting Bayesian inference with noisy sensory observations, prior expectations, and knowledge of the generative structure of the stimulus environment.
Cross-validation to select Bayesian hierarchical models in phylogenetics.
Duchêne, Sebastián; Duchêne, David A; Di Giallonardo, Francesca; Eden, John-Sebastian; Geoghegan, Jemma L; Holt, Kathryn E; Ho, Simon Y W; Holmes, Edward C
2016-05-26
Recent developments in Bayesian phylogenetic models have increased the range of inferences that can be drawn from molecular sequence data. Accordingly, model selection has become an important component of phylogenetic analysis. Methods of model selection generally consider the likelihood of the data under the model in question. In the context of Bayesian phylogenetics, the most common approach involves estimating the marginal likelihood, which is typically done by integrating the likelihood across model parameters, weighted by the prior. Although this method is accurate, it is sensitive to the presence of improper priors. We explored an alternative approach based on cross-validation that is widely used in evolutionary analysis. This involves comparing models according to their predictive performance. We analysed simulated data and a range of viral and bacterial data sets using a cross-validation approach to compare a variety of molecular clock and demographic models. Our results show that cross-validation can be effective in distinguishing between strict- and relaxed-clock models and in identifying demographic models that allow growth in population size over time. In most of our empirical data analyses, the model selected using cross-validation was able to match that selected using marginal-likelihood estimation. The accuracy of cross-validation appears to improve with longer sequence data, particularly when distinguishing between relaxed-clock models. Cross-validation is a useful method for Bayesian phylogenetic model selection. This method can be readily implemented even when considering complex models where selecting an appropriate prior for all parameters may be difficult.
Smartphone technologies and Bayesian networks to assess shorebird habitat selection
Zeigler, Sara; Thieler, E. Robert; Gutierrez, Ben; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Hines, Megan K.; Fraser, James D.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Karpanty, Sarah M.
2017-01-01
Understanding patterns of habitat selection across a species’ geographic distribution can be critical for adequately managing populations and planning for habitat loss and related threats. However, studies of habitat selection can be time consuming and expensive over broad spatial scales, and a lack of standardized monitoring targets or methods can impede the generalization of site-based studies. Our objective was to collaborate with natural resource managers to define available nesting habitat for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) throughout their U.S. Atlantic coast distribution from Maine to North Carolina, with a goal of providing science that could inform habitat management in response to sea-level rise. We characterized a data collection and analysis approach as being effective if it provided low-cost collection of standardized habitat-selection data across the species’ breeding range within 1–2 nesting seasons and accurate nesting location predictions. In the method developed, >30 managers and conservation practitioners from government agencies and private organizations used a smartphone application, “iPlover,” to collect data on landcover characteristics at piping plover nest locations and random points on 83 beaches and barrier islands in 2014 and 2015. We analyzed these data with a Bayesian network that predicted the probability a specific combination of landcover variables would be associated with a nesting site. Although we focused on a shorebird, our approach can be modified for other taxa. Results showed that the Bayesian network performed well in predicting habitat availability and confirmed predicted habitat preferences across the Atlantic coast breeding range of the piping plover. We used the Bayesian network to map areas with a high probability of containing nesting habitat on the Rockaway Peninsula in New York, USA, as an example application. Our approach facilitated the collation of evidence-based information on habitat selection
Bayesian Variable Selection for Detecting Adaptive Genomic Differences Among Populations
Riebler, Andrea; Held, Leonhard; Stephan, Wolfgang
2008-01-01
We extend an Fst-based Bayesian hierarchical model, implemented via Markov chain Monte Carlo, for the detection of loci that might be subject to positive selection. This model divides the Fst-influencing factors into locus-specific effects, population-specific effects, and effects that are specific for the locus in combination with the population. We introduce a Bayesian auxiliary variable for each locus effect to automatically select nonneutral locus effects. As a by-product, the efficiency of the original approach is improved by using a reparameterization of the model. The statistical power of the extended algorithm is assessed with simulated data sets from a Wright–Fisher model with migration. We find that the inclusion of model selection suggests a clear improvement in discrimination as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Additionally, we illustrate and discuss the quality of the newly developed method on the basis of an allozyme data set of the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster and a sequence data set of the wild tomato Solanum chilense. For data sets with small sample sizes, high mutation rates, and/or long sequences, however, methods based on nucleotide statistics should be preferred. PMID:18245358
Accurate model selection of relaxed molecular clocks in bayesian phylogenetics.
Baele, Guy; Li, Wai Lok Sibon; Drummond, Alexei J; Suchard, Marc A; Lemey, Philippe
2013-02-01
Recent implementations of path sampling (PS) and stepping-stone sampling (SS) have been shown to outperform the harmonic mean estimator (HME) and a posterior simulation-based analog of Akaike's information criterion through Markov chain Monte Carlo (AICM), in bayesian model selection of demographic and molecular clock models. Almost simultaneously, a bayesian model averaging approach was developed that avoids conditioning on a single model but averages over a set of relaxed clock models. This approach returns estimates of the posterior probability of each clock model through which one can estimate the Bayes factor in favor of the maximum a posteriori (MAP) clock model; however, this Bayes factor estimate may suffer when the posterior probability of the MAP model approaches 1. Here, we compare these two recent developments with the HME, stabilized/smoothed HME (sHME), and AICM, using both synthetic and empirical data. Our comparison shows reassuringly that MAP identification and its Bayes factor provide similar performance to PS and SS and that these approaches considerably outperform HME, sHME, and AICM in selecting the correct underlying clock model. We also illustrate the importance of using proper priors on a large set of empirical data sets.
Tests of Bayesian model selection techniques for gravitational wave astronomy
Cornish, Neil J.; Littenberg, Tyson B.
2007-10-15
The analysis of gravitational wave data involves many model selection problems. The most important example is the detection problem of selecting between the data being consistent with instrument noise alone, or instrument noise and a gravitational wave signal. The analysis of data from ground based gravitational wave detectors is mostly conducted using classical statistics, and methods such as the Neyman-Peterson criteria are used for model selection. Future space based detectors, such as the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), are expected to produce rich data streams containing the signals from many millions of sources. Determining the number of sources that are resolvable, and the most appropriate description of each source poses a challenging model selection problem that may best be addressed in a Bayesian framework. An important class of LISA sources are the millions of low-mass binary systems within our own galaxy, tens of thousands of which will be detectable. Not only are the number of sources unknown, but so are the number of parameters required to model the waveforms. For example, a significant subset of the resolvable galactic binaries will exhibit orbital frequency evolution, while a smaller number will have measurable eccentricity. In the Bayesian approach to model selection one needs to compute the Bayes factor between competing models. Here we explore various methods for computing Bayes factors in the context of determining which galactic binaries have measurable frequency evolution. The methods explored include a reverse jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, Savage-Dickie density ratios, the Schwarz-Bayes information criterion, and the Laplace approximation to the model evidence. We find good agreement between all of the approaches.
Marker selection by Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion.
Li, W; Nyholt, D R
2001-01-01
We carried out a discriminant analysis with identity by descent (IBD) at each marker as inputs, and the sib pair type (affected-affected versus affected-unaffected) as the output. Using simple logistic regression for this discriminant analysis, we illustrate the importance of comparing models with different number of parameters. Such model comparisons are best carried out using either the Akaike information criterion (AIC) or the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). When AIC (or BIC) stepwise variable selection was applied to the German Asthma data set, a group of markers were selected which provide the best fit to the data (assuming an additive effect). Interestingly, these 25-26 markers were not identical to those with the highest (in magnitude) single-locus lod scores.
X-RAY EMISSION FROM OPTICALLY SELECTED RADIO-INTERMEDIATE AND RADIO-LOUD QUASARS
Miller, B. P.; Brandt, W. N.; Schneider, D. P.; Wu Jianfeng; Gibson, R. R.; Steffen, A. T. E-mail: niel@astro.psu.edu E-mail: jfwu@astro.psu.edu E-mail: rgibson@astro.washington.edu
2011-01-01
We present the results of an investigation into the X-ray properties of radio-intermediate and radio-loud quasars (RIQs and RLQs, respectively). We combine large, modern optical (e.g., SDSS) and radio (e.g., FIRST) surveys with archival X-ray data from Chandra, XMM-Newton, and ROSAT to generate an optically selected sample that includes 188 RIQs and 603 RLQs. This sample is constructed independently of X-ray properties but has a high X-ray detection rate (85%); it provides broad and dense coverage of the l-z plane, including at high redshifts (22% of objects have z = 2-5), and it extends to high radio-loudness values (33% of objects have R* = 3-5, using logarithmic units). We measure the 'excess' X-ray luminosity of RIQs and RLQs relative to radio-quiet quasars (RQQs) as a function of radio loudness and luminosity, and parameterize the X-ray luminosity of RIQs and RLQs both as a function of optical/UV luminosity and also as a joint function of optical/UV and radio luminosity. RIQs are only modestly X-ray bright relative to RQQs; it is only at high values of radio loudness (R* {approx}> 3.5) and radio luminosity that RLQs become strongly X-ray bright. We find no evidence for evolution in the X-ray properties of RIQs and RLQs with redshift (implying jet-linked IC/CMB emission does not contribute substantially to the nuclear X-ray continuum). Finally, we consider a model in which the nuclear X-ray emission contains both disk/corona-linked and jet-linked components and demonstrate that the X-ray jet-linked emission is likely beamed but to a lesser degree than applies to the radio jet. This model is used to investigate the increasing dominance of jet-linked X-ray emission at low inclinations.
VizieR Online Data Catalog: MIR-selected quasar parameters (Dai+, 2014)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dai, Y. S.; Elvis, M.; Bergeron, J.; Fazio, G. G.; Huang, J.-S.; Wilkes, B. J.; Willmer, C. N. A.; Omont, A.; Papovich, C.
2017-03-01
The combined MIR 24 um and optical selection for this survey was designed to detect objects with luminous torus/nucleus and not biased against dusty hosts. The MIR selection allows for the detection of hot dust (a few hundred Kelvin) at the redshifts z ~ 1.5; while optical follow-up spectroscopically identified the BEL objects, confirming their unobscured (type 1) quasar nature. This MIR selection also allows for a far-infrared (FIR) cross-match to look for cool dust for SMBH-host studies, as demonstrated in Dai et al. (2012ApJ...753...33D). We select Spitzer MIPS (Rieke et al. 2004ApJS..154...25R) 24 um sources from the SWIRE survey in the ~22 deg2 LHS field centered at RA=10:46:48, DE=57:54:00 (Lonsdale et al. 2003PASP..115..897L). The SDSS imaging also covers the LHS region to r = 22.2 at 95% detection repeatability, but can go as deep as r = 23. All magnitudes are taken from the SDSS photoObj catalog in DR7, which are already corrected for Galactic extinction according to Schlegel et al. (1998ApJ...500..525S). (6 data files).
Model Selection in Historical Research Using Approximate Bayesian Computation
Rubio-Campillo, Xavier
2016-01-01
Formal Models and History Computational models are increasingly being used to study historical dynamics. This new trend, which could be named Model-Based History, makes use of recently published datasets and innovative quantitative methods to improve our understanding of past societies based on their written sources. The extensive use of formal models allows historians to re-evaluate hypotheses formulated decades ago and still subject to debate due to the lack of an adequate quantitative framework. The initiative has the potential to transform the discipline if it solves the challenges posed by the study of historical dynamics. These difficulties are based on the complexities of modelling social interaction, and the methodological issues raised by the evaluation of formal models against data with low sample size, high variance and strong fragmentation. Case Study This work examines an alternate approach to this evaluation based on a Bayesian-inspired model selection method. The validity of the classical Lanchester’s laws of combat is examined against a dataset comprising over a thousand battles spanning 300 years. Four variations of the basic equations are discussed, including the three most common formulations (linear, squared, and logarithmic) and a new variant introducing fatigue. Approximate Bayesian Computation is then used to infer both parameter values and model selection via Bayes Factors. Impact Results indicate decisive evidence favouring the new fatigue model. The interpretation of both parameter estimations and model selection provides new insights into the factors guiding the evolution of warfare. At a methodological level, the case study shows how model selection methods can be used to guide historical research through the comparison between existing hypotheses and empirical evidence. PMID:26730953
Model Selection in Historical Research Using Approximate Bayesian Computation.
Rubio-Campillo, Xavier
2016-01-01
Computational models are increasingly being used to study historical dynamics. This new trend, which could be named Model-Based History, makes use of recently published datasets and innovative quantitative methods to improve our understanding of past societies based on their written sources. The extensive use of formal models allows historians to re-evaluate hypotheses formulated decades ago and still subject to debate due to the lack of an adequate quantitative framework. The initiative has the potential to transform the discipline if it solves the challenges posed by the study of historical dynamics. These difficulties are based on the complexities of modelling social interaction, and the methodological issues raised by the evaluation of formal models against data with low sample size, high variance and strong fragmentation. This work examines an alternate approach to this evaluation based on a Bayesian-inspired model selection method. The validity of the classical Lanchester's laws of combat is examined against a dataset comprising over a thousand battles spanning 300 years. Four variations of the basic equations are discussed, including the three most common formulations (linear, squared, and logarithmic) and a new variant introducing fatigue. Approximate Bayesian Computation is then used to infer both parameter values and model selection via Bayes Factors. Results indicate decisive evidence favouring the new fatigue model. The interpretation of both parameter estimations and model selection provides new insights into the factors guiding the evolution of warfare. At a methodological level, the case study shows how model selection methods can be used to guide historical research through the comparison between existing hypotheses and empirical evidence.
Minimum Bayesian error probability-based gene subset selection.
Li, Jian; Yu, Tian; Wei, Jin-Mao
2015-01-01
Sifting functional genes is crucial to the new strategies for drug discovery and prospective patient-tailored therapy. Generally, simply generating gene subset by selecting the top k individually superior genes may obtain an inferior gene combination, for some selected genes may be redundant with respect to some others. In this paper, we propose to select gene subset based on the criterion of minimum Bayesian error probability. The method dynamically evaluates all available genes and sifts only one gene at a time. A gene is selected if its combination with the other selected genes can gain better classification information. Within the generated gene subset, each individual gene is the most discriminative one in comparison with those that classify cancers in the same way as this gene does and different genes are more discriminative in combination than in individual. The genes selected in this way are likely to be functional ones from the system biology perspective, for genes tend to co-regulate rather than regulate individually. Experimental results show that the classifiers induced based on this method are capable of classifying cancers with high accuracy, while only a small number of genes are involved.
Bayesian model selection for characterizing genomic imprinting effects and patterns
Yang, Runqing; Wang, Xin; Wu, Zeyuan; Prows, Daniel R.; Lin, Min
2010-01-01
Motivation: Although imprinted genes have been ubiquitously observed in nature, statistical methodology still has not been systematically developed for jointly characterizing genomic imprinting effects and patterns. To detect imprinting genes influencing quantitative traits, the least square and maximum likelihood approaches for fitting a single quantitative trait loci (QTL) and Bayesian method for simultaneously modeling multiple QTLs have been adopted in various studies. Results: In a widely used F2 reciprocal mating population for mapping imprinting genes, we herein propose a genomic imprinting model which describes additive, dominance and imprinting effects of multiple imprinted quantitative trait loci (iQTL) for traits of interest. Depending upon the estimates of the above genetic effects, we categorized imprinting patterns into seven types, which provides a complete classification scheme for describing imprinting patterns. Bayesian model selection was employed to identify iQTL along with many genetic parameters in a computationally efficient manner. To make statistical inference on the imprinting types of iQTL detected, a set of Bayes factors were formulated using the posterior probabilities for the genetic effects being compared. We demonstrated the performance of the proposed method by computer simulation experiments and then applied this method to two real datasets. Our approach can be generally used to identify inheritance modes and determine the contribution of major genes for quantitative variations. Contact: annie.lin@duke.edu; runqingyang@sjtu.edu.cn PMID:19880366
Bayesian Variable Selection on Model Spaces Constrained by Heredity Conditions.
Taylor-Rodriguez, Daniel; Womack, Andrew; Bliznyuk, Nikolay
2016-01-01
This paper investigates Bayesian variable selection when there is a hierarchical dependence structure on the inclusion of predictors in the model. In particular, we study the type of dependence found in polynomial response surfaces of orders two and higher, whose model spaces are required to satisfy weak or strong heredity conditions. These conditions restrict the inclusion of higher-order terms depending upon the inclusion of lower-order parent terms. We develop classes of priors on the model space, investigate their theoretical and finite sample properties, and provide a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for searching the space of models. The tools proposed allow fast and thorough exploration of model spaces that account for hierarchical polynomial structure in the predictors and provide control of the inclusion of false positives in high posterior probability models.
Bayesian Variable Selection on Model Spaces Constrained by Heredity Conditions
Taylor-Rodriguez, Daniel; Womack, Andrew; Bliznyuk, Nikolay
2016-01-01
This paper investigates Bayesian variable selection when there is a hierarchical dependence structure on the inclusion of predictors in the model. In particular, we study the type of dependence found in polynomial response surfaces of orders two and higher, whose model spaces are required to satisfy weak or strong heredity conditions. These conditions restrict the inclusion of higher-order terms depending upon the inclusion of lower-order parent terms. We develop classes of priors on the model space, investigate their theoretical and finite sample properties, and provide a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for searching the space of models. The tools proposed allow fast and thorough exploration of model spaces that account for hierarchical polynomial structure in the predictors and provide control of the inclusion of false positives in high posterior probability models. PMID:28082825
Exploratory Bayesian model selection for serial genetics data.
Zhao, Jing X; Foulkes, Andrea S; George, Edward I
2005-06-01
Characterizing the process by which molecular and cellular level changes occur over time will have broad implications for clinical decision making and help further our knowledge of disease etiology across many complex diseases. However, this presents an analytic challenge due to the large number of potentially relevant biomarkers and the complex, uncharacterized relationships among them. We propose an exploratory Bayesian model selection procedure that searches for model simplicity through independence testing of multiple discrete biomarkers measured over time. Bayes factor calculations are used to identify and compare models that are best supported by the data. For large model spaces, i.e., a large number of multi-leveled biomarkers, we propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) stochastic search algorithm for finding promising models. We apply our procedure to explore the extent to which HIV-1 genetic changes occur independently over time.
Bayesian nonparametric centered random effects models with variable selection.
Yang, Mingan
2013-03-01
In a linear mixed effects model, it is common practice to assume that the random effects follow a parametric distribution such as a normal distribution with mean zero. However, in the case of variable selection, substantial violation of the normality assumption can potentially impact the subset selection and result in poor interpretation and even incorrect results. In nonparametric random effects models, the random effects generally have a nonzero mean, which causes an identifiability problem for the fixed effects that are paired with the random effects. In this article, we focus on a Bayesian method for variable selection. We characterize the subject-specific random effects nonparametrically with a Dirichlet process and resolve the bias simultaneously. In particular, we propose flexible modeling of the conditional distribution of the random effects with changes across the predictor space. The approach is implemented using a stochastic search Gibbs sampler to identify subsets of fixed effects and random effects to be included in the model. Simulations are provided to evaluate and compare the performance of our approach to the existing ones. We then apply the new approach to a real data example, cross-country and interlaboratory rodent uterotrophic bioassay.
A spectroscopic survey of WISE-selected obscured quasars with the southern african large telescope
Hainline, Kevin N.; Hickox, Ryan C.; Carroll, Christopher M.; Myers, Adam D.; DiPompeo, Michael A.; Trouille, Laura
2014-11-10
We present the results of an optical spectroscopic survey of a sample of 40 candidate obscured quasars identified on the basis of their mid-infrared emission detected by the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE). Optical spectra for this survey were obtained using the Robert Stobie Spectrograph on the Southern African Large Telescope. Our sample was selected with WISE colors characteristic of active galactic nuclei (AGNs), as well as red optical to mid-IR colors indicating that the optical/UV AGN continuum is obscured by dust. We obtain secure redshifts for the majority of the objects that comprise our sample (35/40), and find that sources that are bright in the WISE W4 (22 μm) band are typically at moderate redshift ((z) = 0.35) while sources fainter in W4 are at higher redshifts ((z) = 0.73). The majority of the sources have narrow emission lines with optical colors and emission line ratios of our WISE-selected sources that are consistent with the locus of AGN on the rest-frame g – z color versus [Ne III] λ3869/[O II] λλ3726+3729 line ratio diagnostic diagram. We also use empirical AGN and galaxy templates to model the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) for the objects in our sample, and find that while there is significant variation in the observed SEDs for these objects, the majority require a strong AGN component. Finally, we use the results from our analysis of the optical spectra and the SEDs to compare our selection criteria to alternate criteria presented in the literature. These results verify the efficacy of selecting luminous obscured AGNs based on their WISE colors.
X-Ray Observations of Optically Selected, Radio-quiet Quasars. I. The ASCA Results
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
George, I. M.; Turner, T. J.; Yaqoob, T.; Netzer, H.; Laor, A.; Mushotzky, R. F.; Nandra, K.; Takahashi, T.
2000-03-01
We present the result of 27 ASCA observations of 26 radio-quiet quasars (RQQs) from the Palomar-Green (PG) survey. The sample is not statistically complete, but it is reasonably representative of RQQs in the PG survey. For many of the sources, the ASCA data are presented here for the first time. All the RQQs were detected except for two objects, both of which contain broad absorption lines in the optical band. We find the variability characteristics of the sources to be consistent with Seyfert 1 galaxies. A power law offers an acceptable description of the time-averaged spectra in the 2-10 keV (quasar frame) band for all but one data set. The best-fitting values of the photon index vary from object to object over the range 1.5<~Γ2-10<~3, with a mean <Γ2-10>~=2 and dispersion σ(Γ2-10)~=0.25. The distribution of Γ2-10 is therefore similar to that observed in other RQ active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and seems to be unrelated to X-ray luminosity. No single model adequately describes the full 0.6-10 keV (observed frame) continuum of all the RQQs. Approximately 50% of the sources can be adequately described by a single power law or by a power law with only very subtle deviations. All but one of the remaining data sets were found to have convex spectra (flattening as one moves to higher energies). The exception is PG 1411+442, in which a substantial column density (NH,z~2x1023 cm-2) obscures ~98% of the continuum. We find only five (maybe six) of 14 objects with z<~0.25 to have ``soft excesses'' at energies <~1 keV, but we find no universal shape for these spectral components. The spectrum of PG 1244+026 contains a rather narrow emission feature centered at an energy ~1 keV (quasar frame). The detection rate of absorption due to ionized material in these RQQs is lower than that seen in Seyfert 1 galaxies. In part, this may be due to selection effects. However, when detected, the absorbers in the RQQs exhibit a similar range of column density and ionization parameter as
The soft x-ray properties of a complete sample of optically selected quasars. 1: First results
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Laor, Ari; Fiore, Fabrizio; Elvis, Martin; Wilkes, Belinda J.; Mcdowell, Jonathan C.
1994-01-01
We present the results of ROSAT position sensitive proportional counter (PSPC) observations of 10 quasars. These objects are part of our ROSAT program to observe a complete sample of optically selected quasars. This sample includes all 23 quasars from the bright quasar survey with a redshift z less than or = 0.400 and a Galactic H I column density N(sup Gal sub H I) less than 1.9 x 10(exp 20)/sq cm. These selection criteria, combined with the high sensitivity and improved energy resolution of the PSPC, allow us to determine the soft (approximately 0.2-2 keV) X-ray spectra of quasars with about an order of magnitude higher precision compared with earlier soft X-ray observations. The following main results are obtained: Strong correlations are suggested between the soft X-ray spectral slope alpha(sub x) and the following emission line parameters: H beta Full Width at Half Maximum (FWHM), L(sub O III), and the Fe II/H beta flux ratio. These correlations imply the following: (1) The quasar's environment is likely to be optically thin down to approximately 0.2 keV. (2) In most objects alpha(sub x) varies by less than approximately 10% on timescales shorter than a few years. (3) alpha(sub x) might be a useful absolute luminosity indicator in quasars. (4) The Galactic He I and H I column densities are well correlated. Most spectra are well characterized by a simple power law, with no evidence for either significant absorption excess or emission excess at low energies, to within approximately 30%. We find mean value of alpha(sub x) = -1.50 +/- 0.40, which is consistent with other ROSAT observations of quasars. However, this average is significantly steeper than suggested by earlier soft X-ray observations of the Einstein IPC. The 0.3 keV flux in our sample can be predicted to better than a factor of 2 once the 1.69 micrometer(s) flux is given. This implies that the X-ray variability power spectra of quasars flattens out between f approximately 10(exp -5) and f
ALMA DETECTED OVERDENSITY OF SUB-MILLIMETER SOURCES AROUND WISE/NVSS-SELECTED z ∼ 2 DUSTY QUASARS
Silva, Andrea; Sajina, Anna; Lonsdale, Carol; Lacy, Mark
2015-06-20
We study the environments of 49 WISE/NVSS-selected dusty, hyper-luminous, z ∼ 2 quasars using the Atacama Large Millimeter/Sub-millimeter Array (ALMA) 345 GHz images. We find that 17 of the 49 WISE/NVSS sources show additional sub-millimeter galaxies within the ALMA primary beam, probing scales within ∼150 kpc. We find a total of 23 additional sub-millimeter sources, four of which are in the field of a single WISE/NVSS source. The measured 870 μm source counts are ∼10× what is expected for unbiased regions, suggesting such hyper-luminous dusty quasars are excellent at probing high-density peaks.
Thomas, D.L.; Johnson, D.; Griffith, B.
2006-01-01
Modeling the probability of use of land units characterized by discrete and continuous measures, we present a Bayesian random-effects model to assess resource selection. This model provides simultaneous estimation of both individual- and population-level selection. Deviance information criterion (DIC), a Bayesian alternative to AIC that is sample-size specific, is used for model selection. Aerial radiolocation data from 76 adult female caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and calf pairs during 1 year on an Arctic coastal plain calving ground were used to illustrate models and assess population-level selection of landscape attributes, as well as individual heterogeneity of selection. Landscape attributes included elevation, NDVI (a measure of forage greenness), and land cover-type classification. Results from the first of a 2-stage model-selection procedure indicated that there is substantial heterogeneity among cow-calf pairs with respect to selection of the landscape attributes. In the second stage, selection of models with heterogeneity included indicated that at the population-level, NDVI and land cover class were significant attributes for selection of different landscapes by pairs on the calving ground. Population-level selection coefficients indicate that the pairs generally select landscapes with higher levels of NDVI, but the relationship is quadratic. The highest rate of selection occurs at values of NDVI less than the maximum observed. Results for land cover-class selections coefficients indicate that wet sedge, moist sedge, herbaceous tussock tundra, and shrub tussock tundra are selected at approximately the same rate, while alpine and sparsely vegetated landscapes are selected at a lower rate. Furthermore, the variability in selection by individual caribou for moist sedge and sparsely vegetated landscapes is large relative to the variability in selection of other land cover types. The example analysis illustrates that, while sometimes computationally intense, a
Bayesian Model Selection with Network Based Diffusion Analysis
Whalen, Andrew; Hoppitt, William J. E.
2016-01-01
A number of recent studies have used Network Based Diffusion Analysis (NBDA) to detect the role of social transmission in the spread of a novel behavior through a population. In this paper we present a unified framework for performing NBDA in a Bayesian setting, and demonstrate how the Watanabe Akaike Information Criteria (WAIC) can be used for model selection. We present a specific example of applying this method to Time to Acquisition Diffusion Analysis (TADA). To examine the robustness of this technique, we performed a large scale simulation study and found that NBDA using WAIC could recover the correct model of social transmission under a wide range of cases, including under the presence of random effects, individual level variables, and alternative models of social transmission. This work suggests that NBDA is an effective and widely applicable tool for uncovering whether social transmission underpins the spread of a novel behavior, and may still provide accurate results even when key model assumptions are relaxed. PMID:27092089
Estimating seabed scattering mechanisms via Bayesian model selection.
Steininger, Gavin; Dosso, Stan E; Holland, Charles W; Dettmer, Jan
2014-10-01
A quantitative inversion procedure is developed and applied to determine the dominant scattering mechanism (surface roughness and/or volume scattering) from seabed scattering-strength data. The classification system is based on trans-dimensional Bayesian inversion with the deviance information criterion used to select the dominant scattering mechanism. Scattering is modeled using first-order perturbation theory as due to one of three mechanisms: Interface scattering from a rough seafloor, volume scattering from a heterogeneous sediment layer, or mixed scattering combining both interface and volume scattering. The classification system is applied to six simulated test cases where it correctly identifies the true dominant scattering mechanism as having greater support from the data in five cases; the remaining case is indecisive. The approach is also applied to measured backscatter-strength data where volume scattering is determined as the dominant scattering mechanism. Comparison of inversion results with core data indicates the method yields both a reasonable volume heterogeneity size distribution and a good estimate of the sub-bottom depths at which scatterers occur.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Matsuoka, Yoshiki; SHELLQs Collaboration
2017-01-01
Quasars at high redshift are an important and unique probe of the distant Universe, for understanding the origin and progress of cosmic reionization, the early growth of supermassive black holes, and the evolution of quasar host galaxies and their dark matter halos, among other topics. We are currently carrying out a new spectroscopic survey, called SHELLQs (Subaru High-z Exploration of Low-Luminosity Quasars), to search for low-luminosity quasars at z > 6. By exploiting the exquisite imaging data produced by the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) survey, we aim to probe quasar luminosities down to M1450 ~ -22 mag, i.e., below the classical threshold between quasars and Seyfert galaxies. Candidate selection is performed by combining several photometric approaches including a Bayesian probabilistic algorithm. A large spectroscopic observing program is underway, using Subaru/FOCAS, GTC/OSIRIS, and Gemini/GMOS; in particular, SHELLQs has been approved as a Subaru intensive program to use 20 nights in the coming four semesters. As of August 2016, we have discovered ~40 quasars and bright galaxies at z ~ 6 and beyond, from the first 100 deg2 of the HSC survey (Matsuoka et al. 2016, ApJ, 828, 26). Surprisingly, we are starting to see the steep rise of the luminosity function of high-z galaxies, compared with that of quasars, at magnitudes fainter than M1450 ~ -22 mag or zAB ~ 24 mag. Multi-wavelength follow-up studies of the discovered objects as well as further survey observations are ongoing.
Discovery of a Color-selected Quasar at z = 5.50.
Stern; Spinrad; Eisenhardt; Bunker; Dawson; Stanford; Elston
2000-04-20
We present observations of RD J030117+002025, a quasar at z=5.50 discovered from deep, multicolor, ground-based observations covering 74 arcmin2. This is the most distant quasar or active galaxy currently known. The object was targeted as an R-band dropout, with RAB>26.3 (3 sigma limit in a 3&arcsec; diameter region), IAB=23.8, and zAB=23.4. The Keck/Low-Resolution Imaging Spectrometer spectrum shows broad Lyalpha/N v lambda1240 emission and sharp absorption decrements from the highly redshifted hydrogen forests. The fractional continuum depression due to the Lyalpha forest is DA=0.90. RD J030117+002025 is the least luminous high-redshift quasar known (MB approximately -22.7).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Matsuoka, Yoshiki; Onoue, Masafusa; Kashikawa, Nobunari; Iwasawa, Kazushi; Strauss, Michael A.; Nagao, Tohru; Imanishi, Masatoshi; Niida, Mana; Toba, Yoshiki; Akiyama, Masayuki; Asami, Naoko; Bosch, James; Foucaud, Sébastien; Furusawa, Hisanori; Goto, Tomotsugu; Gunn, James E.; Harikane, Yuichi; Ikeda, Hiroyuki; Kawaguchi, Toshihiro; Kikuta, Satoshi; Komiyama, Yutaka; Lupton, Robert H.; Minezaki, Takeo; Miyazaki, Satoshi; Morokuma, Tomoki; Murayama, Hitoshi; Nishizawa, Atsushi J.; Ono, Yoshiaki; Ouchi, Masami; Price, Paul A.; Sameshima, Hiroaki; Silverman, John D.; Sugiyama, Naoshi; Tait, Philip J.; Takada, Masahiro; Takata, Tadafumi; Tanaka, Masayuki; Tang, Ji-Jia; Utsumi, Yousuke
2016-09-01
We report the discovery of 15 quasars and bright galaxies at 5.7 < z < 6.9. This is the initial result from the Subaru High-z Exploration of Low-Luminosity Quasars project, which exploits the exquisite multiband imaging data produced by the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) Strategic Program survey. The candidate selection is performed by combining several photometric approaches including a Bayesian probabilistic algorithm to reject stars and dwarfs. The spectroscopic identification was carried out with the Gran Telescopio Canarias and the Subaru Telescope for the first 80 deg2 of the survey footprint. The success rate of our photometric selection is quite high, approaching 100% at the brighter magnitudes (z AB < 23.5 mag). Our selection also recovered all the known high-z quasars on the HSC images. Among the 15 discovered objects, six are likely quasars, while the other six with interstellar absorption lines and in some cases narrow emission lines are likely bright Lyman-break galaxies. The remaining three objects have weak continua and very strong and narrow Lyα lines, which may be excited by ultraviolet light from both young stars and quasars. These results indicate that we are starting to see the steep rise of the luminosity function of z ≥ 6 galaxies, compared with that of quasars, at magnitudes fainter than M 1450 ˜ -22 mag or z AB ˜ 24 mag. Follow-up studies of the discovered objects as well as further survey observations are ongoing.
Chipman, Hugh A.; Hamada, Michael S.
2016-06-02
Regular two-level fractional factorial designs have complete aliasing in which the associated columns of multiple effects are identical. Here, we show how Bayesian variable selection can be used to analyze experiments that use such designs. In addition to sparsity and hierarchy, Bayesian variable selection naturally incorporates heredity . This prior information is used to identify the most likely combinations of active terms. We also demonstrate the method on simulated and real experiments.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Djorgovski, Stanislav
merger phase. "Discoveries of a number of distinct subpopulation of quasars showing unusual or extreme variability patents, including: “Major long-duration flare events, some, but not all of which may be related to a new population of ultraluminous SNe from the accretion disks, or some heretofore unknown energetic phenomena associated with the active nuclei. “Changing spectroscopic type (e.g., from type 1 to type 2) AGN, which may result from the changes in obscuration along the line of sight, and/or the luminosity changes from the central engine. Variability also offers a spectrum-independent method for quasar discovery that bypasses many selection effects, and thus a test of the completeness of the existing samples. Combining the variability-based and spectrum-based selection criteria would lead to more complete samples of quasars that would affect our understanding of their phenomenology and evolution. We propose to combine multi-wavelength and multi-epoch data sets from a variety of missions, from mid-IR to gamma-ray, supplemented with multicolor optical, NIR, and radio surveys from the ground in order to further explore and interpret these findings and use them to provide new observational constraints
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schmidt, R. W.; Wambsganss, J.
2010-09-01
Quasar microlensing deals with the effect of compact objects along the line of sight on the apparent brightness of the background quasars. Due to the relative motion between quasar, lenses and observer, the microlensing magnification changes with time which results in uncorrelated brightness variations in the various images of multiple quasar systems. The amplitudes of the signal can be more than a magnitude with time scales of weeks to months to years. The effect is due to the “granular” nature of the gravitational microlenses—stars or other compact objects in the stellar mass range. Quasar microlensing allows to study the quasar accretion disk with a resolution of tens of microarcseconds, hence quasar microlensing can be used to explore an astrophysical field that is hardly accessible by any other means. Quasar microlensing can also be used to study the lensing objects in a statistical sense, their nature (compact or smoothly distributed, normal stars or dark matter) as well as transverse velocities. Quasar microlensing light curves are now being obtained from monitoring programs across the electromagnetic spectrum from the radio through the infrared and optical range to the X-ray regime. Recently, spectroscopic microlensing was successfully applied, it provides quantitative comparisons with quasar/accretion disk models. There are now more than a handful of systems with several-year long light curves and significant microlensing signal, lending to detailed analysis. This review summarizes the current state of the art of quasar microlensing and shows that at this point in time, observational monitoring programs and complementary intense simulations provide a scenario where some of the early promises of quasar microlensing can be quantitatively applied. It has been shown, e.g., that smaller sources display more violent microlensing variability, first quantitative comparison with accretion disk models has been achieved, and quasar microlensing has been used to
Back to basics for Bayesian model building in genomic selection.
Kärkkäinen, Hanni P; Sillanpää, Mikko J
2012-07-01
Numerous Bayesian methods of phenotype prediction and genomic breeding value estimation based on multilocus association models have been proposed. Computationally the methods have been based either on Markov chain Monte Carlo or on faster maximum a posteriori estimation. The demand for more accurate and more efficient estimation has led to the rapid emergence of workable methods, unfortunately at the expense of well-defined principles for Bayesian model building. In this article we go back to the basics and build a Bayesian multilocus association model for quantitative and binary traits with carefully defined hierarchical parameterization of Student's t and Laplace priors. In this treatment we consider alternative model structures, using indicator variables and polygenic terms. We make the most of the conjugate analysis, enabled by the hierarchical formulation of the prior densities, by deriving the fully conditional posterior densities of the parameters and using the acquired known distributions in building fast generalized expectation-maximization estimation algorithms.
Elsheikh, Ahmed H.; Wheeler, Mary F.; Hoteit, Ibrahim
2014-02-01
A Hybrid Nested Sampling (HNS) algorithm is proposed for efficient Bayesian model calibration and prior model selection. The proposed algorithm combines, Nested Sampling (NS) algorithm, Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling and gradient estimation using Stochastic Ensemble Method (SEM). NS is an efficient sampling algorithm that can be used for Bayesian calibration and estimating the Bayesian evidence for prior model selection. Nested sampling has the advantage of computational feasibility. Within the nested sampling algorithm, a constrained sampling step is performed. For this step, we utilize HMC to reduce the correlation between successive sampled states. HMC relies on the gradient of the logarithm of the posterior distribution, which we estimate using a stochastic ensemble method based on an ensemble of directional derivatives. SEM only requires forward model runs and the simulator is then used as a black box and no adjoint code is needed. The developed HNS algorithm is successfully applied for Bayesian calibration and prior model selection of several nonlinear subsurface flow problems.
Bayesian Parameter Inference and Model Selection by Population Annealing in Systems Biology
Murakami, Yohei
2014-01-01
Parameter inference and model selection are very important for mathematical modeling in systems biology. Bayesian statistics can be used to conduct both parameter inference and model selection. Especially, the framework named approximate Bayesian computation is often used for parameter inference and model selection in systems biology. However, Monte Carlo methods needs to be used to compute Bayesian posterior distributions. In addition, the posterior distributions of parameters are sometimes almost uniform or very similar to their prior distributions. In such cases, it is difficult to choose one specific value of parameter with high credibility as the representative value of the distribution. To overcome the problems, we introduced one of the population Monte Carlo algorithms, population annealing. Although population annealing is usually used in statistical mechanics, we showed that population annealing can be used to compute Bayesian posterior distributions in the approximate Bayesian computation framework. To deal with un-identifiability of the representative values of parameters, we proposed to run the simulations with the parameter ensemble sampled from the posterior distribution, named “posterior parameter ensemble”. We showed that population annealing is an efficient and convenient algorithm to generate posterior parameter ensemble. We also showed that the simulations with the posterior parameter ensemble can, not only reproduce the data used for parameter inference, but also capture and predict the data which was not used for parameter inference. Lastly, we introduced the marginal likelihood in the approximate Bayesian computation framework for Bayesian model selection. We showed that population annealing enables us to compute the marginal likelihood in the approximate Bayesian computation framework and conduct model selection depending on the Bayes factor. PMID:25089832
Bayesian parameter inference and model selection by population annealing in systems biology.
Murakami, Yohei
2014-01-01
Parameter inference and model selection are very important for mathematical modeling in systems biology. Bayesian statistics can be used to conduct both parameter inference and model selection. Especially, the framework named approximate Bayesian computation is often used for parameter inference and model selection in systems biology. However, Monte Carlo methods needs to be used to compute Bayesian posterior distributions. In addition, the posterior distributions of parameters are sometimes almost uniform or very similar to their prior distributions. In such cases, it is difficult to choose one specific value of parameter with high credibility as the representative value of the distribution. To overcome the problems, we introduced one of the population Monte Carlo algorithms, population annealing. Although population annealing is usually used in statistical mechanics, we showed that population annealing can be used to compute Bayesian posterior distributions in the approximate Bayesian computation framework. To deal with un-identifiability of the representative values of parameters, we proposed to run the simulations with the parameter ensemble sampled from the posterior distribution, named "posterior parameter ensemble". We showed that population annealing is an efficient and convenient algorithm to generate posterior parameter ensemble. We also showed that the simulations with the posterior parameter ensemble can, not only reproduce the data used for parameter inference, but also capture and predict the data which was not used for parameter inference. Lastly, we introduced the marginal likelihood in the approximate Bayesian computation framework for Bayesian model selection. We showed that population annealing enables us to compute the marginal likelihood in the approximate Bayesian computation framework and conduct model selection depending on the Bayes factor.
Otava, Martin; Shkedy, Ziv; Hothorn, Ludwig A; Talloen, Willem; Gerhard, Daniel; Kasim, Adetayo
2017-02-16
The identification of the minimum effective dose is of high importance in the drug development process. In early stage screening experiments, establishing the minimum effective dose can be translated into a model selection based on information criteria. The presented alternative, Bayesian variable selection approach, allows for selection of the minimum effective dose, while taking into account model uncertainty. The performance of Bayesian variable selection is compared with the generalized order restricted information criterion on two dose-response experiments and through the simulations study. Which method has performed better depends on the complexity of the underlying model and the effect size relative to noise.
Ball, R D
2001-11-01
We describe an approximate method for the analysis of quantitative trait loci (QTL) based on model selection from multiple regression models with trait values regressed on marker genotypes, using a modification of the easily calculated Bayesian information criterion to estimate the posterior probability of models with various subsets of markers as variables. The BIC-delta criterion, with the parameter delta increasing the penalty for additional variables in a model, is further modified to incorporate prior information, and missing values are handled by multiple imputation. Marginal probabilities for model sizes are calculated, and the posterior probability of nonzero model size is interpreted as the posterior probability of existence of a QTL linked to one or more markers. The method is demonstrated on analysis of associations between wood density and markers on two linkage groups in Pinus radiata. Selection bias, which is the bias that results from using the same data to both select the variables in a model and estimate the coefficients, is shown to be a problem for commonly used non-Bayesian methods for QTL mapping, which do not average over alternative possible models that are consistent with the data.
Mining for Dust in Type 1 Quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Krawczyk, Coleman M.; Richards, Gordon T.; Gallagher, S. C.; Leighly, Karen M.; Hewett, Paul C.; Ross, Nicholas P.; Hall, P. B.
2015-06-01
We explore the extinction/reddening of ˜35,000 uniformly selected quasars with 0\\lt z≤slant 5.3 in order to better understand their intrinsic optical/ultraviolet (UV) spectral energy distributions. Using rest-frame optical-UV photometry taken from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey’s (SDSS) 7th data release, cross-matched to WISE in the mid-infrared, 2MASS and UKIDSS in the near-infrared, and GALEX in the UV, we isolate outliers in the color distribution and find them well described by an SMC-like reddening law. A hierarchical Bayesian model with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling method was used to find distributions of power law indices and E(B-V) consistent with both the broad absorption line (BAL) and non-BAL samples. We find that, of the ugriz color-selected type 1 quasars in SDSS, 2.5% (13%) of the non-BAL (BAL) sample are consistent with E(B-V)\\gt 0.1 and 0.1% (1.3%) with E(B-V)\\gt 0.2. Simulations show both populations of quasars are intrinsically bluer than the mean composite, with a mean spectral index ({{α }λ }) of -1.79 (-1.83). The emission and absorption-line properties of both samples reveal that quasars with intrinsically red continua have narrower Balmer lines and stronger high-ionization emission lines, the latter indicating a harder continuum in the extreme-UV and the former pointing to differences in black hole mass and/or orientation.
Efficient estimation of thermodynamic state incorporating Bayesian model order selection
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lanterman, Aaron D.; Cooper, Matthew L.; Miller, Michael I.
1999-08-01
The recognition of targets in infrared scenes is complicated by the wide variety of appearances associated with different thermodynamic states. We represent the variability in the thermodynamic signatures of targets via an expansion in terms of 'eigentanks' derived from a principal component analysis performed over the target's surface. Employing a Poisson sensor likelihood, or equivalently a likelihood based on Csiszar's I-divergence, a natural discrepancy measure for nonnegative images, yields a coupled set of nonlinear equations which must be solved to computed maximum a posteriori estimates of the thermodynamic expansion coefficients. We propose a weighted least-squares approximation to the Poisson loglikelihood for which the MAP estimates are solutions of linear equations. Bayesian model order estimation techniques are employed to choose the number of coefficients; this prevents target models with numerous eigentanks in their representation from having an unfair advantage over simple target models. The Bayesian integral is approximated by Schwarz's application of Laplace's method of integration; this technique is closely related to Rissanen's minimum description length and Wallace's minimum message length criteria. Our implementation of these techniques on Silicon Graphics computers exploits the flexible nature of their rendering engines. The implementation is illustrated in estimating the orientation of a tank and the optimum number of representative eigentanks for real data provided by the U.S. Army Night Vision and Electronic Sensors Directorate.
Extension of the bayesian alphabet for genomic selection
2011-01-01
Background Two Bayesian methods, BayesCπ and BayesDπ, were developed for genomic prediction to address the drawback of BayesA and BayesB regarding the impact of prior hyperparameters and treat the prior probability π that a SNP has zero effect as unknown. The methods were compared in terms of inference of the number of QTL and accuracy of genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs), using simulated scenarios and real data from North American Holstein bulls. Results Estimates of π from BayesCπ, in contrast to BayesDπ, were sensitive to the number of simulated QTL and training data size, and provide information about genetic architecture. Milk yield and fat yield have QTL with larger effects than protein yield and somatic cell score. The drawback of BayesA and BayesB did not impair the accuracy of GEBVs. Accuracies of alternative Bayesian methods were similar. BayesA was a good choice for GEBV with the real data. Computing time was shorter for BayesCπ than for BayesDπ, and longest for our implementation of BayesA. Conclusions Collectively, accounting for computing effort, uncertainty as to the number of QTL (which affects the GEBV accuracy of alternative methods), and fundamental interest in the number of QTL underlying quantitative traits, we believe that BayesCπ has merit for routine applications. PMID:21605355
Extension of the bayesian alphabet for genomic selection.
Habier, David; Fernando, Rohan L; Kizilkaya, Kadir; Garrick, Dorian J
2011-05-23
Two bayesian methods, BayesCπ and BayesDπ, were developed for genomic prediction to address the drawback of BayesA and BayesB regarding the impact of prior hyperparameters and treat the prior probability π that a SNP has zero effect as unknown. The methods were compared in terms of inference of the number of QTL and accuracy of genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs), using simulated scenarios and real data from North American Holstein bulls. Estimates of π from BayesCπ, in contrast to BayesDπ, were sensitive to the number of simulated QTL and training data size, and provide information about genetic architecture. Milk yield and fat yield have QTL with larger effects than protein yield and somatic cell score. The drawback of BayesA and BayesB did not impair the accuracy of GEBVs. Accuracies of alternative Bayesian methods were similar. BayesA was a good choice for GEBV with the real data. Computing time was shorter for BayesCπ than for BayesDπ, and longest for our implementation of BayesA. Collectively, accounting for computing effort, uncertainty as to the number of QTL (which affects the GEBV accuracy of alternative methods), and fundamental interest in the number of QTL underlying quantitative traits, we believe that BayesCπ has merit for routine applications.
A comparison of Bayesian and frequentist model selection methods for factor analysis models.
Lu, Zhao-Hua; Chow, Sy-Miin; Loken, Eric
2017-06-01
We compare the performances of well-known frequentist model fit indices (MFIs) and several Bayesian model selection criteria (MCC) as tools for cross-loading selection in factor analysis under low to moderate sample sizes, cross-loading sizes, and possible violations of distributional assumptions. The Bayesian criteria considered include the Bayes factor (BF), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), a Bayesian leave-one-out with Pareto smoothed importance sampling (LOO-PSIS), and a Bayesian variable selection method using the spike-and-slab prior (SSP; Lu, Chow, & Loken, 2016). Simulation results indicate that of the Bayesian measures considered, the BF and the BIC showed the best balance between true positive rates and false positive rates, followed closely by the SSP. The LOO-PSIS and the DIC showed the highest true positive rates among all the measures considered, but with elevated false positive rates. In comparison, likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) are still the preferred frequentist model comparison tool, except for their higher false positive detection rates compared to the BF, BIC and SSP under violations of distributional assumptions. The root mean squared error of approximation (RMSEA) and the Tucker-Lewis index (TLI) at the conventional cut-off of approximate fit impose much more stringent "penalties" on model complexity under conditions with low cross-loading size, low sample size, and high model complexity compared with the LRTs and all other Bayesian MCC. Nevertheless, they provided a reasonable alternative to the LRTs in cases where the models cannot be readily constructed as nested within each other. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
Bayesian model selection: Evidence estimation based on DREAM simulation and bridge sampling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Volpi, Elena; Schoups, Gerrit; Firmani, Giovanni; Vrugt, Jasper A.
2017-04-01
Bayesian inference has found widespread application in Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling, providing an effective tool for prediction, data assimilation, parameter estimation, uncertainty analysis and hypothesis testing. Under multiple competing hypotheses, the Bayesian approach also provides an attractive alternative to traditional information criteria (e.g. AIC, BIC) for model selection. The key variable for Bayesian model selection is the evidence (or marginal likelihood) that is the normalizing constant in the denominator of Bayes theorem; while it is fundamental for model selection, the evidence is not required for Bayesian inference. It is computed for each hypothesis (model) by averaging the likelihood function over the prior parameter distribution, rather than maximizing it as by information criteria; the larger a model evidence the more support it receives among a collection of hypothesis as the simulated values assign relatively high probability density to the observed data. Hence, the evidence naturally acts as an Occam's razor, preferring simpler and more constrained models against the selection of over-fitted ones by information criteria that incorporate only the likelihood maximum. Since it is not particularly easy to estimate the evidence in practice, Bayesian model selection via the marginal likelihood has not yet found mainstream use. We illustrate here the properties of a new estimator of the Bayesian model evidence, which provides robust and unbiased estimates of the marginal likelihood; the method is coined Gaussian Mixture Importance Sampling (GMIS). GMIS uses multidimensional numerical integration of the posterior parameter distribution via bridge sampling (a generalization of importance sampling) of a mixture distribution fitted to samples of the posterior distribution derived from the DREAM algorithm (Vrugt et al., 2008; 2009). Some illustrative examples are presented to show the robustness and superiority of the GMIS estimator with
Using Bayesian Model Selection to Characterize Neonatal Eeg Recordings
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mitchell, Timothy J.
2009-12-01
The brains of premature infants must undergo significant maturation outside of the womb and are thus particularly susceptible to injury. Electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings are an important diagnostic tool in determining if a newborn's brain is functioning normally or if injury has occurred. However, interpreting the recordings is difficult and requires the skills of a trained electroencephelographer. Because these EEG specialists are rare, an automated interpretation of newborn EEG recordings would increase access to an important diagnostic tool for physicians. To automate this procedure, we employ Bayesian probability theory to compute the posterior probability for the EEG features of interest and use the results in a program designed to mimic EEG specialists. Specifically, we will be identifying waveforms of varying frequency and amplitude, as well as periods of flat recordings where brain activity is minimal.
van den Berg, S; Calus, M P L; Meuwissen, T H E; Wientjes, Y C J
2015-12-23
The use of information across populations is an attractive approach to increase the accuracy of genomic prediction for numerically small populations. However, accuracies of across population genomic prediction, in which reference and selection individuals are from different populations, are currently disappointing. It has been shown for within population genomic prediction that Bayesian variable selection models outperform GBLUP models when the number of QTL underlying the trait is low. Therefore, our objective was to identify across population genomic prediction scenarios in which Bayesian variable selection models outperform GBLUP in terms of prediction accuracy. In this study, high density genotype information of 1033 Holstein Friesian, 105 Groningen White Headed, and 147 Meuse-Rhine-Yssel cows were used. Phenotypes were simulated using two changing variables: (1) the number of QTL underlying the trait (3000, 300, 30, 3), and (2) the correlation between allele substitution effects of QTL across populations, i.e. the genetic correlation of the simulated trait between the populations (1.0, 0.8, 0.4). The accuracy obtained by the Bayesian variable selection model was depending on the number of QTL underlying the trait, with a higher accuracy when the number of QTL was lower. This trend was more pronounced for across population genomic prediction than for within population genomic prediction. It was shown that Bayesian variable selection models have an advantage over GBLUP when the number of QTL underlying the simulated trait was small. This advantage disappeared when the number of QTL underlying the simulated trait was large. The point where the accuracy of Bayesian variable selection and GBLUP became similar was approximately the point where the number of QTL was equal to the number of independent chromosome segments (M e ) across the populations. Bayesian variable selection models outperform GBLUP when the number of QTL underlying the trait is smaller than M e
Increasing selection response by Bayesian modeling of heterogeneous environmental variances
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Heterogeneity of environmental variance among genotypes reduces selection response because genotypes with higher variance are more likely to be selected than low-variance genotypes. Modeling heterogeneous variances to obtain weighted means corrected for heterogeneous variances is difficult in likel...
Bayesian Item Selection Criteria for Adaptive Testing. Research Report 96-01.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
van der Linden, Wim J.
R. J. Owen (1975) proposed an approximate empirical Bayes procedure for item selection in adaptive testing. The procedure replaces the true posterior by a normal approximation with closed-form expressions for its first two moments. This approximation was necessary to minimize the computational complexity involved in a fully Bayesian approach, but…
Diagnosing Hybrid Systems: a Bayesian Model Selection Approach
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
McIlraith, Sheila A.
2005-01-01
In this paper we examine the problem of monitoring and diagnosing noisy complex dynamical systems that are modeled as hybrid systems-models of continuous behavior, interleaved by discrete transitions. In particular, we examine continuous systems with embedded supervisory controllers that experience abrupt, partial or full failure of component devices. Building on our previous work in this area (MBCG99;MBCG00), our specific focus in this paper ins on the mathematical formulation of the hybrid monitoring and diagnosis task as a Bayesian model tracking algorithm. The nonlinear dynamics of many hybrid systems present challenges to probabilistic tracking. Further, probabilistic tracking of a system for the purposes of diagnosis is problematic because the models of the system corresponding to failure modes are numerous and generally very unlikely. To focus tracking on these unlikely models and to reduce the number of potential models under consideration, we exploit logic-based techniques for qualitative model-based diagnosis to conjecture a limited initial set of consistent candidate models. In this paper we discuss alternative tracking techniques that are relevant to different classes of hybrid systems, focusing specifically on a method for tracking multiple models of nonlinear behavior simultaneously using factored sampling and conditional density propagation. To illustrate and motivate the approach described in this paper we examine the problem of monitoring and diganosing NASA's Sprint AERCam, a small spherical robotic camera unit with 12 thrusters that enable both linear and rotational motion.
Placek, Ben; Knuth, Kevin H.; Angerhausen, Daniel E-mail: kknuth@albany.edu
2014-11-10
EXONEST is an algorithm dedicated to detecting and characterizing the photometric signatures of exoplanets, which include reflection and thermal emission, Doppler boosting, and ellipsoidal variations. Using Bayesian inference, we can test between competing models that describe the data as well as estimate model parameters. We demonstrate this approach by testing circular versus eccentric planetary orbital models, as well as testing for the presence or absence of four photometric effects. In addition to using Bayesian model selection, a unique aspect of EXONEST is the potential capability to distinguish between reflective and thermal contributions to the light curve. A case study is presented using Kepler data recorded from the transiting planet KOI-13b. By considering only the nontransiting portions of the light curve, we demonstrate that it is possible to estimate the photometrically relevant model parameters of KOI-13b. Furthermore, Bayesian model testing confirms that the orbit of KOI-13b has a detectable eccentricity.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Placek, Ben; Knuth, Kevin H.; Angerhausen, Daniel
2014-11-01
EXONEST is an algorithm dedicated to detecting and characterizing the photometric signatures of exoplanets, which include reflection and thermal emission, Doppler boosting, and ellipsoidal variations. Using Bayesian inference, we can test between competing models that describe the data as well as estimate model parameters. We demonstrate this approach by testing circular versus eccentric planetary orbital models, as well as testing for the presence or absence of four photometric effects. In addition to using Bayesian model selection, a unique aspect of EXONEST is the potential capability to distinguish between reflective and thermal contributions to the light curve. A case study is presented using Kepler data recorded from the transiting planet KOI-13b. By considering only the nontransiting portions of the light curve, we demonstrate that it is possible to estimate the photometrically relevant model parameters of KOI-13b. Furthermore, Bayesian model testing confirms that the orbit of KOI-13b has a detectable eccentricity.
Zhang, Lin; Baladandayuthapani, Veerabhadran; Mallick, Bani K; Manyam, Ganiraju C; Thompson, Patricia A; Bondy, Melissa L; Do, Kim-Anh
2014-08-01
The analysis of alterations that may occur in nature when segments of chromosomes are copied (known as copy number alterations) has been a focus of research to identify genetic markers of cancer. One high-throughput technique recently adopted is the use of molecular inversion probes (MIPs) to measure probe copy number changes. The resulting data consist of high-dimensional copy number profiles that can be used to ascertain probe-specific copy number alterations in correlative studies with patient outcomes to guide risk stratification and future treatment. We propose a novel Bayesian variable selection method, the hierarchical structured variable selection (HSVS) method, which accounts for the natural gene and probe-within-gene architecture to identify important genes and probes associated with clinically relevant outcomes. We propose the HSVS model for grouped variable selection, where simultaneous selection of both groups and within-group variables is of interest. The HSVS model utilizes a discrete mixture prior distribution for group selection and group-specific Bayesian lasso hierarchies for variable selection within groups. We provide methods for accounting for serial correlations within groups that incorporate Bayesian fused lasso methods for within-group selection. Through simulations we establish that our method results in lower model errors than other methods when a natural grouping structure exists. We apply our method to an MIP study of breast cancer and show that it identifies genes and probes that are significantly associated with clinically relevant subtypes of breast cancer.
Zhang, Lin; Baladandayuthapani, Veerabhadran; Mallick, Bani K.; Manyam, Ganiraju C.; Thompson, Patricia A.; Bondy, Melissa L.; Do, Kim-Anh
2015-01-01
Summary The analysis of alterations that may occur in nature when segments of chromosomes are copied (known as copy number alterations) has been a focus of research to identify genetic markers of cancer. One high-throughput technique recently adopted is the use of molecular inversion probes (MIPs) to measure probe copy number changes. The resulting data consist of high-dimensional copy number profiles that can be used to ascertain probe-specific copy number alterations in correlative studies with patient outcomes to guide risk stratification and future treatment. We propose a novel Bayesian variable selection method, the hierarchical structured variable selection (HSVS) method, which accounts for the natural gene and probe-within-gene architecture to identify important genes and probes associated with clinically relevant outcomes. We propose the HSVS model for grouped variable selection, where simultaneous selection of both groups and within-group variables is of interest. The HSVS model utilizes a discrete mixture prior distribution for group selection and group-specific Bayesian lasso hierarchies for variable selection within groups. We provide methods for accounting for serial correlations within groups that incorporate Bayesian fused lasso methods for within-group selection. Through simulations we establish that our method results in lower model errors than other methods when a natural grouping structure exists. We apply our method to an MIP study of breast cancer and show that it identifies genes and probes that are significantly associated with clinically relevant subtypes of breast cancer. PMID:25705056
The faint quasar luminosity function
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kron, Richard G.; Bershady, Matthew A.; Munn, Jeffrey A.; Smetanka, John J.; Majewski, Steven; Koo, David C.
1991-01-01
Preliminary results of an expanded program to determine the faint-quasar luminosity function are described. Quasars have been selected in four fields totaling 1.2 sq deg from four-band photometry. Out of a total of 130 quasars with good spectroscopy, 37 have J greater than 21.5 and 46 have F greater than 21.0. The spectroscopic sample is representative of all of the color-selected candidates. An estimate of the luminosity function as a function of redshift is derived.
Photometric Determination of Quasar Candidates
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abraham, S.; Philip, N. S.
2010-12-01
We describe an efficient and fast method for the detection and classification of quasars using a machine learning tool, making use of photometric information from SDSS DR7 data release. The photometric information used are the ten independent colours that can be derived from the 5 filters available with SDSS and the machine learning algorithm used is a difference boosting neural network (DBNN) that uses Bayesian classification rule. An adaptive learning algorithm was used to prepare the training sample for each region. Cross validations were done with SDSS spectroscopy and it was found that the method could detect quasars with above 96.96% confidence regarding their true classification. The completeness at this stage was 99.01%. Contaminants were mainly stars and the incorrectly classified quasars belonged to a few specific patches of redshifts. Color plots indicated that the colors of some stars and quasars in those redshits were indistinguishable from each other and was the major cause of their incorrect classification. A confidence value (computed posterior Bayesian belief of the network) was assigned to every object that was classified. Most of the incorrect classifications had a low confidence value. This information may be used to filter out contaminants and improve the classification accuracy at the cost of reduced completeness.
NuSTAR and XMM-Newton observations of luminous, heavily obscured, WISE-selected quasars at z ∼ 2
Stern, D.; Eisenhardt, P. R. M.; Lansbury, G. B.; Alexander, D. M.; Del Moro, A.; Gandhi, P.; Assef, R. J.; Brandt, W. N.; Griffith, R. L.; Ballantyne, D. R.; Baloković, M.; Bridge, C.; Bauer, F. E.; Benford, D.; Blain, A.; Boggs, S. E.; Craig, W. W.; Brightman, M.; Christensen, F. E.; Comastri, A.; and others
2014-10-20
We report on a NuSTAR and XMM-Newton program that has observed a sample of three extremely luminous, heavily obscured WISE-selected active galactic nuclei (AGNs) at z ∼ 2 across a broad X-ray band (0.1 – 79 keV). The parent sample, selected to be faint or undetected in the WISE 3.4 μm (W1) and 4.6 μm (W2) bands but bright at 12 μm (W3) and 22 μm (W4), are extremely rare, with only ∼1000 so-called 'W1W2-dropouts' across the extragalactic sky. Optical spectroscopy reveals typical redshifts of z ∼ 2 for this population, implying rest-frame mid-IR luminosities of νL {sub ν}(6 μm) ∼ 6 × 10{sup 46} erg s{sup –1} and bolometric luminosities that can exceed L {sub bol} ∼ 10{sup 14} L {sub ☉}. The corresponding intrinsic, unobscured hard X-ray luminosities are L(2-10 keV) ∼ 4 × 10{sup 45} erg s{sup –1} for typical quasar templates. These are among the most AGNs known, though the optical spectra rarely show evidence of a broad-line region and the selection criteria imply heavy obscuration even at rest-frame 1.5 μm. We designed our X-ray observations to obtain robust detections for gas column densities N {sub H} ≤ 10{sup 24} cm{sup –2}. In fact, the sources prove to be fainter than these predictions. Two of the sources were observed by both NuSTAR and XMM-Newton, with neither being detected by NuSTAR (f {sub 3-24} {sub keV} ≲ 10{sup –13} erg cm{sup –2} s{sup –1}), and one being faintly detected by XMM-Newton (f {sub 0.5-10} {sub keV} ∼ 5 × 10{sup –15} erg cm{sup –2} s{sup –1}). A third source was observed only with XMM-Newton, yielding a faint detection (f {sub 0.5-10} {sub keV} ∼ 7 × 10{sup –15} erg cm{sup –2} s{sup –1}). The X-ray data imply these sources are either X-ray weak, or are heavily obscured by column densities N {sub H} ≳ 10{sup 24} cm{sup –2}. The combined X-ray and mid-IR analysis seems to favor this second possibility, implying the sources are extremely obscured, consistent with Compton
Bayesian Variable Selection and Computation for Generalized Linear Models with Conjugate Priors.
Chen, Ming-Hui; Huang, Lan; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Kim, Sungduk
2008-07-01
In this paper, we consider theoretical and computational connections between six popular methods for variable subset selection in generalized linear models (GLM's). Under the conjugate priors developed by Chen and Ibrahim (2003) for the generalized linear model, we obtain closed form analytic relationships between the Bayes factor (posterior model probability), the Conditional Predictive Ordinate (CPO), the L measure, the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), the Aikiake Information Criterion (AIC), and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) in the case of the linear model. Moreover, we examine computational relationships in the model space for these Bayesian methods for an arbitrary GLM under conjugate priors as well as examine the performance of the conjugate priors of Chen and Ibrahim (2003) in Bayesian variable selection. Specifically, we show that once Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samples are obtained from the full model, the four Bayesian criteria can be simultaneously computed for all possible subset models in the model space. We illustrate our new methodology with a simulation study and a real dataset.
Bagging linear sparse Bayesian learning models for variable selection in cancer diagnosis.
Lu, Chuan; Devos, Andy; Suykens, Johan A K; Arús, Carles; Van Huffel, Sabine
2007-05-01
This paper investigates variable selection (VS) and classification for biomedical datasets with a small sample size and a very high input dimension. The sequential sparse Bayesian learning methods with linear bases are used as the basic VS algorithm. Selected variables are fed to the kernel-based probabilistic classifiers: Bayesian least squares support vector machines (BayLS-SVMs) and relevance vector machines (RVMs). We employ the bagging techniques for both VS and model building in order to improve the reliability of the selected variables and the predictive performance. This modeling strategy is applied to real-life medical classification problems, including two binary cancer diagnosis problems based on microarray data and a brain tumor multiclass classification problem using spectra acquired via magnetic resonance spectroscopy. The work is experimentally compared to other VS methods. It is shown that the use of bagging can improve the reliability and stability of both VS and model prediction.
A biological mechanism for Bayesian feature selection: Weight decay and raising the LASSO.
Connor, Patrick; Hollensen, Paul; Krigolson, Olav; Trappenberg, Thomas
2015-07-01
Biological systems are capable of learning that certain stimuli are valuable while ignoring the many that are not, and thus perform feature selection. In machine learning, one effective feature selection approach is the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) form of regularization, which is equivalent to assuming a Laplacian prior distribution on the parameters. We review how such Bayesian priors can be implemented in gradient descent as a form of weight decay, which is a biologically plausible mechanism for Bayesian feature selection. In particular, we describe a new prior that offsets or "raises" the Laplacian prior distribution. We evaluate this alongside the Gaussian and Cauchy priors in gradient descent using a generic regression task where there are few relevant and many irrelevant features. We find that raising the Laplacian leads to less prediction error because it is a better model of the underlying distribution. We also consider two biologically relevant online learning tasks, one synthetic and one modeled after the perceptual expertise task of Krigolson et al. (2009). Here, raising the Laplacian prior avoids the fast erosion of relevant parameters over the period following training because it only allows small weights to decay. This better matches the limited loss of association seen between days in the human data of the perceptual expertise task. Raising the Laplacian prior thus results in a biologically plausible form of Bayesian feature selection that is effective in biologically relevant contexts.
Bayesian Factor Analysis as a Variable-Selection Problem: Alternative Priors and Consequences.
Lu, Zhao-Hua; Chow, Sy-Miin; Loken, Eric
2016-01-01
Factor analysis is a popular statistical technique for multivariate data analysis. Developments in the structural equation modeling framework have enabled the use of hybrid confirmatory/exploratory approaches in which factor-loading structures can be explored relatively flexibly within a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) framework. Recently, Muthén & Asparouhov proposed a Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) approach to explore the presence of cross loadings in CFA models. We show that the issue of determining factor-loading patterns may be formulated as a Bayesian variable selection problem in which Muthén and Asparouhov's approach can be regarded as a BSEM approach with ridge regression prior (BSEM-RP). We propose another Bayesian approach, denoted herein as the Bayesian structural equation modeling with spike-and-slab prior (BSEM-SSP), which serves as a one-stage alternative to the BSEM-RP. We review the theoretical advantages and disadvantages of both approaches and compare their empirical performance relative to two modification indices-based approaches and exploratory factor analysis with target rotation. A teacher stress scale data set is used to demonstrate our approach.
Bayesian evidence computation for model selection in non-linear geoacoustic inference problems.
Dettmer, Jan; Dosso, Stan E; Osler, John C
2010-12-01
This paper applies a general Bayesian inference approach, based on Bayesian evidence computation, to geoacoustic inversion of interface-wave dispersion data. Quantitative model selection is carried out by computing the evidence (normalizing constants) for several model parameterizations using annealed importance sampling. The resulting posterior probability density estimate is compared to estimates obtained from Metropolis-Hastings sampling to ensure consistent results. The approach is applied to invert interface-wave dispersion data collected on the Scotian Shelf, off the east coast of Canada for the sediment shear-wave velocity profile. Results are consistent with previous work on these data but extend the analysis to a rigorous approach including model selection and uncertainty analysis. The results are also consistent with core samples and seismic reflection measurements carried out in the area.
Barroso, L M A; Teodoro, P E; Nascimento, M; Torres, F E; Dos Santos, A; Corrêa, A M; Sagrilo, E; Corrêa, C C G; Silva, F A; Ceccon, G
2016-03-11
This study aimed to verify that a Bayesian approach could be used for the selection of upright cowpea genotypes with high adaptability and phenotypic stability, and the study also evaluated the efficiency of using informative and minimally informative a priori distributions. Six trials were conducted in randomized blocks, and the grain yield of 17 upright cowpea genotypes was assessed. To represent the minimally informative a priori distributions, a probability distribution with high variance was used, and a meta-analysis concept was adopted to represent the informative a priori distributions. Bayes factors were used to conduct comparisons between the a priori distributions. The Bayesian approach was effective for selection of upright cowpea genotypes with high adaptability and phenotypic stability using the Eberhart and Russell method. Bayes factors indicated that the use of informative a priori distributions provided more accurate results than minimally informative a priori distributions.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Maccacaro, T.; Gioia, I. M.; Stocke, J. T.
1984-01-01
The cosmological evolution and the X-ray luminosity function of quasars and Seyfert galaxies (active galactic nuclei /AGNs/) are derived and discussed. The sample used consists of 56 objects extracted from the expanded Einstein Observatory Medium Sensitivity Survey, and it is exclusively defined by its X-ray properties. The distribution in space of X-ray selected AGNs is confirmed to be strongly nonuniform; the amount of cosmological evolution required by the data is in agreement with a previous determination based on a smaller sample of objects. The X-ray luminosity function (XLF) is derived. The high-luminosity part of the XLF is satisfactorily described by a power law of slope gamma approximately 3.6. A significant flattening is observed at low luminosities. The simultaneous determination of the cosmological evolution and of the X-ray luminosity function of AGNs is then used to estimate the contribution to the extragalactic diffuse X-ray background. Using the best fit values for the evolution of AGNs and for their volume density, it is found that they contribute approximately 80 percent of the 2 keV diffuse X-ray background. Uncertainties in this estimate are still rather large; however, it seems difficult to reconcile the data with a contribution much less than 50 percent.
The Cutting Edge: Selecting a Mass Function by Way of the Bayesian Razor
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sealfon, Carolyn; Burner, B.; Crichton, D.; Moodley, D.; Moodley, K.; Sheth, R.
2010-01-01
We apply a Bayesian model-selection "razor", based on the Minimum Description Length Principle, to the galaxy cluster mass function. The cluster mass function is a powerful tool to constrain cosmology, including the evolution of dark energy. Various parameterizations of the mass function may be fit to current and upcoming observations. We show how the razor can estimate the minimum size cluster catalog that is required for different parameterizations of the mass function to lead to statistically significant conclusions.
Bayesian model selection applied to artificial neural networks used for water resources modeling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kingston, Greer B.; Maier, Holger R.; Lambert, Martin F.
2008-04-01
Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have proven to be extremely valuable tools in the field of water resources engineering. However, one of the most difficult tasks in developing an ANN is determining the optimum level of complexity required to model a given problem, as there is no formal systematic model selection method. This paper presents a Bayesian model selection (BMS) method for ANNs that provides an objective approach for comparing models of varying complexity in order to select the most appropriate ANN structure. The approach uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo posterior simulations to estimate the evidence in favor of competing models and, in this study, three known methods for doing this are compared in terms of their suitability for being incorporated into the proposed BMS framework for ANNs. However, it is acknowledged that it can be particularly difficult to accurately estimate the evidence of ANN models. Therefore, the proposed BMS approach for ANNs incorporates a further check of the evidence results by inspecting the marginal posterior distributions of the hidden-to-output layer weights, which unambiguously indicate any redundancies in the hidden layer nodes. The fact that this check is available is one of the greatest advantages of the proposed approach over conventional model selection methods, which do not provide such a test and instead rely on the modeler's subjective choice of selection criterion. The advantages of a total Bayesian approach to ANN development, including training and model selection, are demonstrated on two synthetic and one real world water resources case study.
Yi, Nengjun; Shriner, Daniel; Banerjee, Samprit; Mehta, Tapan; Pomp, Daniel; Yandell, Brian S.
2007-01-01
We extend our Bayesian model selection framework for mapping epistatic QTL in experimental crosses to include environmental effects and gene–environment interactions. We propose a new, fast Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to explore the posterior distribution of unknowns. In addition, we take advantage of any prior knowledge about genetic architecture to increase posterior probability on more probable models. These enhancements have significant computational advantages in models with many effects. We illustrate the proposed method by detecting new epistatic and gene–sex interactions for obesity-related traits in two real data sets of mice. Our method has been implemented in the freely available package R/qtlbim (http://www.qtlbim.org) to facilitate the general usage of the Bayesian methodology for genomewide interacting QTL analysis. PMID:17483424
A Bayesian Approach for GCMs Selection and Ensemble Projections under the latest Emission Scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen
2017-04-01
Background: The tremendous development in computational technology makes it easy to run Global Climate/Circulation Models, however, due to different parameterization schemes, variation in boundary layers and different resolutions, relying on the output from a single model may give deceptive results. Appropriate Selection of GCMs becomes even trickier when the study area has abrupt spatial variability in climate. Methodology: Posterior inclusion probability is used as model selection parameter under the Bayesian model averaging approach to select the best Global Climate/Circulation Model(s) among a number of competing models over a given study area. To minimize the gap between observed and simulated data, statistical bias correction has been implemented which preserves the climate change signals in future. Bayesian Model averaging is used to produce ensemble climate projections using the outputs from thirteen Global Circulation Models. In Bayesian model averaging, each model is assigned a weight equal to the posterior probability of being included in a regression model. Ensemble projection will increase the confidence as compared to single model's projections because it considers the uncertainty inherent in the models. Further, a comparison is made between baseline and future climate projections under RCP45 and RCP85 for maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation. Results: The best models among thirteen Global climate models have varying importance for maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation, however, they share some common models with regard to the top five. In addition, different prior choices have influence on the selection of GCMs, which is different under each variable, but for maximum temperature there is no distinctive prior's influence for the top five models. The ensemble projections and their 90% prediction intervals almost covered the observed data. The ensemble projections have higher correlation with observed data and reproduced the
Mid-IR Selected z ∼ 2 Type-2 QSOs: Obscured Star-Forming Young Quasars?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Violino, Giulio; Stevens, J.; Coppin, K.
2016-10-01
Star formation and obscuration in AGN: A sub-mm study of high-redshift mid-IR selected type-2 QSOs. The AGN unification model describes unobscured and obscured AGN (AGN1 and AGN2) as identical sources, with their different observed properties explained solely by orientation effects; as a result, it predicts no difference in the host galaxies. As an alternative, a second scenario has been proposed in which type-2 AGN represent an earlier stage in the life of AGN characterized by dust- enshrouded host galaxies which contribute to the obscuration and higher star formation activity, at least at earlier epochs. To test this scenario we employ Herschel data at three different wavelengths (250, 350, 500 um) to study the far-IR-to-submm properties of a sample of mid-IR selected type 2 QSOs at high redshift (1.5
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Urrutia, Tanya; Lacy, Mark; Becker, Robert H.
2008-02-01
We present Hubble Space Telescope ACS images of 13 dust-reddened type 1 quasars selected from the FIRST/2MASS Red Quasar Survey. These quasars have high intrinsic luminosities after correction for dust obscuration (-23.5 >= MB >= - 26.2 from K-magnitude). The images show strong evidence of recent or ongoing interaction in 11 of the 13 cases, even before the quasar nucleus is subtracted. None of the host galaxies are well fit by a simple elliptical profile. The fraction of quasars showing interaction is significantly higher than the 30% seen in samples of host galaxies of normal, unobscured quasars. There is a weak correlation between the amount of dust reddening and the magnitude of interaction in the host galaxy, measured using the Gini coefficient and the concentration index. Although few host galaxy studies of normal quasars are matched to ours in intrinsic quasar luminosity, no evidence has been found for a strong dependence of merger activity on host luminosity in samples of the host galaxies of normal quasars. We thus believe that the high merger fraction in our sample is related to their obscured nature, with a significant amount of reddening occurring in the host galaxy. The red quasar phenomenon seems to have an evolutionary explanation, with the young quasar spending the early part of its lifetime enshrouded in an interacting galaxy. This might be further indication of a link between AGNs and starburst galaxies.
Bayesian analysis of response to selection: a case study using litter size in Danish Yorkshire pigs.
Sorensen, D; Vernersen, A; Andersen, S
2000-01-01
Implementation of a Bayesian analysis of a selection experiment is illustrated using litter size [total number of piglets born (TNB)] in Danish Yorkshire pigs. Other traits studied include average litter weight at birth (WTAB) and proportion of piglets born dead (PRBD). Response to selection for TNB was analyzed with a number of models, which differed in their level of hierarchy, in their prior distributions, and in the parametric form of the likelihoods. A model assessment study favored a particular form of an additive genetic model. With this model, the Monte Carlo estimate of the 95% probability interval of response to selection was (0.23; 0.60), with a posterior mean of 0.43 piglets. WTAB showed a correlated response of -7.2 g, with a 95% probability interval equal to (-33.1; 18.9). The posterior mean of the genetic correlation between TNB and WTAB was -0.23 with a 95% probability interval equal to (-0.46; -0.01). PRBD was studied informally; it increases with larger litters, when litter size is >7 piglets born. A number of methodological issues related to the Bayesian model assessment study are discussed, as well as the genetic consequences of inferring response to selection using additive genetic models. PMID:10978292
Newcombe, P J; Raza Ali, H; Blows, F M; Provenzano, E; Pharoah, P D; Caldas, C; Richardson, S
2017-02-01
As data-rich medical datasets are becoming routinely collected, there is a growing demand for regression methodology that facilitates variable selection over a large number of predictors. Bayesian variable selection algorithms offer an attractive solution, whereby a sparsity inducing prior allows inclusion of sets of predictors simultaneously, leading to adjusted effect estimates and inference of which covariates are most important. We present a new implementation of Bayesian variable selection, based on a Reversible Jump MCMC algorithm, for survival analysis under the Weibull regression model. A realistic simulation study is presented comparing against an alternative LASSO-based variable selection strategy in datasets of up to 20,000 covariates. Across half the scenarios, our new method achieved identical sensitivity and specificity to the LASSO strategy, and a marginal improvement otherwise. Runtimes were comparable for both approaches, taking approximately a day for 20,000 covariates. Subsequently, we present a real data application in which 119 protein-based markers are explored for association with breast cancer survival in a case cohort of 2287 patients with oestrogen receptor-positive disease. Evidence was found for three independent prognostic tumour markers of survival, one of which is novel. Our new approach demonstrated the best specificity.
Finding Hidden Quasars with UKIDSS and AAOmega
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maddox, Natasha; Hewett, P. C.; Warren, S. J.; Croom, S. M.
2007-05-01
The number of luminous quasars that have thus far eluded optical surveys is a subject of ongoing debate. Dust reddening and significant host galaxy light tend to exclude candidates from traditional UV-excess selection. UKIDSS, the near-infrared counterpart to SDSS, has started to provide the large area NIR data required to quantify the number of quasars missing from optical surveys. The quasar candidate list was chosen from the Early Data Release of the UKIDSS Large Area Survey (LAS), which aims to cover 2000 square degrees in two years. Requiring each object to have K<17, J<19.5 (the detection limit of the LAS) and a detection in SDSS were the only restrictions imposed on the candidates. A simple cut in gJK colour space, exploiting the K-band excess of quasars compared to stars, then separates the quasar candidates from the stellar locus. Optical-NIR colour selection with relaxed restrictions on morphology is less sensitive to dust reddening, so provides a more complete candidate list, suitable for follow-up observation with the new AAOmega spectrograph on the Anglo-Australian Telescope. With spectroscopic observations covering nearly 20 square degrees taken at the AAT, this is by far the largest K-band selected quasar sample to date. Many new quasars have been identified, in addition to known quasars being recovered. Several of the newly discovered quasars lie in regions of colour space typically excluded by UV selection. This study highlights the effectiveness of the K-excess technique in selecting quasars that do not necessarily exhibit the classic UV excess, either due to intrinsic SED shape or dust reddening. Combining upcoming UKIDSS data releases with scheduled AAT observations will increase the area surveyed by several times, thus moving closer to fully quantifying the number of luminous, reddened quasars.
Reich, Brian J.; Storlie, Curtis B.; Bondell, Howard D.
2009-01-01
With many predictors, choosing an appropriate subset of the covariates is a crucial, and difficult, step in nonparametric regression. We propose a Bayesian nonparametric regression model for curve-fitting and variable selection. We use the smoothing spline ANOVA framework to decompose the regression function into interpretable main effect and interaction functions. Stochastic search variable selection via MCMC sampling is used to search for models that fit the data well. Also, we show that variable selection is highly-sensitive to hyperparameter choice and develop a technique to select hyperparameters that control the long-run false positive rate. The method is used to build an emulator for a complex computer model for two-phase fluid flow. PMID:19789732
Schöniger, Anneli; Wöhling, Thomas; Samaniego, Luis; Nowak, Wolfgang
2014-01-01
Bayesian model selection or averaging objectively ranks a number of plausible, competing conceptual models based on Bayes' theorem. It implicitly performs an optimal trade-off between performance in fitting available data and minimum model complexity. The procedure requires determining Bayesian model evidence (BME), which is the likelihood of the observed data integrated over each model's parameter space. The computation of this integral is highly challenging because it is as high-dimensional as the number of model parameters. Three classes of techniques to compute BME are available, each with its own challenges and limitations: (1) Exact and fast analytical solutions are limited by strong assumptions. (2) Numerical evaluation quickly becomes unfeasible for expensive models. (3) Approximations known as information criteria (ICs) such as the AIC, BIC, or KIC (Akaike, Bayesian, or Kashyap information criterion, respectively) yield contradicting results with regard to model ranking. Our study features a theory-based intercomparison of these techniques. We further assess their accuracy in a simplistic synthetic example where for some scenarios an exact analytical solution exists. In more challenging scenarios, we use a brute-force Monte Carlo integration method as reference. We continue this analysis with a real-world application of hydrological model selection. This is a first-time benchmarking of the various methods for BME evaluation against true solutions. Results show that BME values from ICs are often heavily biased and that the choice of approximation method substantially influences the accuracy of model ranking. For reliable model selection, bias-free numerical methods should be preferred over ICs whenever computationally feasible. PMID:25745272
Schöniger, Anneli; Wöhling, Thomas; Samaniego, Luis; Nowak, Wolfgang
2014-12-01
Bayesian model selection or averaging objectively ranks a number of plausible, competing conceptual models based on Bayes' theorem. It implicitly performs an optimal trade-off between performance in fitting available data and minimum model complexity. The procedure requires determining Bayesian model evidence (BME), which is the likelihood of the observed data integrated over each model's parameter space. The computation of this integral is highly challenging because it is as high-dimensional as the number of model parameters. Three classes of techniques to compute BME are available, each with its own challenges and limitations: (1) Exact and fast analytical solutions are limited by strong assumptions. (2) Numerical evaluation quickly becomes unfeasible for expensive models. (3) Approximations known as information criteria (ICs) such as the AIC, BIC, or KIC (Akaike, Bayesian, or Kashyap information criterion, respectively) yield contradicting results with regard to model ranking. Our study features a theory-based intercomparison of these techniques. We further assess their accuracy in a simplistic synthetic example where for some scenarios an exact analytical solution exists. In more challenging scenarios, we use a brute-force Monte Carlo integration method as reference. We continue this analysis with a real-world application of hydrological model selection. This is a first-time benchmarking of the various methods for BME evaluation against true solutions. Results show that BME values from ICs are often heavily biased and that the choice of approximation method substantially influences the accuracy of model ranking. For reliable model selection, bias-free numerical methods should be preferred over ICs whenever computationally feasible.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schöniger, Anneli; Wöhling, Thomas; Samaniego, Luis; Nowak, Wolfgang
2014-12-01
Bayesian model selection or averaging objectively ranks a number of plausible, competing conceptual models based on Bayes' theorem. It implicitly performs an optimal trade-off between performance in fitting available data and minimum model complexity. The procedure requires determining Bayesian model evidence (BME), which is the likelihood of the observed data integrated over each model's parameter space. The computation of this integral is highly challenging because it is as high-dimensional as the number of model parameters. Three classes of techniques to compute BME are available, each with its own challenges and limitations: (1) Exact and fast analytical solutions are limited by strong assumptions. (2) Numerical evaluation quickly becomes unfeasible for expensive models. (3) Approximations known as information criteria (ICs) such as the AIC, BIC, or KIC (Akaike, Bayesian, or Kashyap information criterion, respectively) yield contradicting results with regard to model ranking. Our study features a theory-based intercomparison of these techniques. We further assess their accuracy in a simplistic synthetic example where for some scenarios an exact analytical solution exists. In more challenging scenarios, we use a brute-force Monte Carlo integration method as reference. We continue this analysis with a real-world application of hydrological model selection. This is a first-time benchmarking of the various methods for BME evaluation against true solutions. Results show that BME values from ICs are often heavily biased and that the choice of approximation method substantially influences the accuracy of model ranking. For reliable model selection, bias-free numerical methods should be preferred over ICs whenever computationally feasible.
Bayesian model selection for a finite element model of a large civil aircraft
Hemez, F. M.; Rutherford, A. C.
2004-01-01
Nine aircraft stiffness parameters have been varied and used as inputs to a finite element model of an aircraft to generate natural frequency and deflection features (Goge, 2003). This data set (147 input parameter configurations and associated outputs) is now used to generate a metamodel, or a fast running surrogate model, using Bayesian model selection methods. Once a forward relationship is defined, the metamodel may be used in an inverse sense. That is, knowing the measured output frequencies and deflections, what were the input stiffness parameters that caused them?
The Environments of Obscured Quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jones, Kristen M.; Lacy, Mark; Nielsen, Danielle
2016-01-01
Supermassive Black Hole (SMBH) feedback is prescribed for driving the high-end shape of the galaxy luminosity function, clearing the circumnuclear environment during the end stages of mergers, and eventually turning off its own accretion. Yet the dominant processes and characteristics of active galactic nuclei are indistinct. Chief among this confusion is how significant the role of dust is in each galaxy. Orientation of the dusty torus is attributed to causing the differences between Sy1 and Sy2, but whether obscured quasars are found in particularly dusty host galaxies, if they exist at a different stage in the merger process (early on, before the dust is blown out), or if they are merely oriented differently than optical quasars is not yet so well distinguished. With obscured quasars now observed to make up 50% or greater of the population of quasars, the question of what causes obscuration becomes vital to address. With this in mind, I study matched samples of obscured and unobscured quasars to characterize their environments, with the intent of addressing what contribution environment has to obscuration levels. I investigate the megaparsec-scale environments of SIRTF Wide-field Infra-Red Extragalactic Survey (SWIRE) quasars at z ˜ 1-3 by cross-correlating the sample with 3.8 million galaxies from the Spitzer Extragalactic Representative Volume Survey (SERVS). Optically obscured quasars are compared to a control sample of optically-bright quasars via selection in the mid-infrared. Environments were observed at 3.6 and 4.5 μm to a depth of ≈ 2 μJy (AB = 23.1). Recent work has found diverse results in such studies, with dependence of environmental richness on both redshift and level of obscuration. I find that, within reasonable error, on average there is no distinct difference between the level of clustering for obscured and normal quasars, and that there is no dependence on redshift of this result within the range of 1.3 < z < 2.5. I compare our results
On the completeness of the Medium Sensitivity Survey quasar sample
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Maccacaro, T.; Gioia, I. M.
1986-01-01
The Medium Sensitivity Survey (MSS) quasar sample is being used more and more to study quasar properties in general and to analyze the relationship between X-ray-selected and optically selected quasars in particular. These studies have recently shown that current knowledge of the properties of optically selected quasars (luminosity function, evolution, X-ray to optical luminosity ratio) leads to the prediction that many more X-ray-selected quasars should have been detected than are actually observed. Prompted by this fact, a detailed examination of possible causes of incompleteness of the MSS quasar sample has been undertaken, paying particular attention to the problem of photoelectric absorption due to the interstellar medium within the Galaxy. It is found that there is no evidence of a loss of sources due to the effects considered, and that the MSS quasar sample is statistically complete.
NetDiff – Bayesian model selection for differential gene regulatory network inference
Thorne, Thomas
2016-01-01
Differential networks allow us to better understand the changes in cellular processes that are exhibited in conditions of interest, identifying variations in gene regulation or protein interaction between, for example, cases and controls, or in response to external stimuli. Here we present a novel methodology for the inference of differential gene regulatory networks from gene expression microarray data. Specifically we apply a Bayesian model selection approach to compare models of conserved and varying network structure, and use Gaussian graphical models to represent the network structures. We apply a variational inference approach to the learning of Gaussian graphical models of gene regulatory networks, that enables us to perform Bayesian model selection that is significantly more computationally efficient than Markov Chain Monte Carlo approaches. Our method is demonstrated to be more robust than independent analysis of data from multiple conditions when applied to synthetic network data, generating fewer false positive predictions of differential edges. We demonstrate the utility of our approach on real world gene expression microarray data by applying it to existing data from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis cases with and without mutations in C9orf72, and controls, where we are able to identify differential network interactions for further investigation. PMID:27982083
NetDiff - Bayesian model selection for differential gene regulatory network inference.
Thorne, Thomas
2016-12-16
Differential networks allow us to better understand the changes in cellular processes that are exhibited in conditions of interest, identifying variations in gene regulation or protein interaction between, for example, cases and controls, or in response to external stimuli. Here we present a novel methodology for the inference of differential gene regulatory networks from gene expression microarray data. Specifically we apply a Bayesian model selection approach to compare models of conserved and varying network structure, and use Gaussian graphical models to represent the network structures. We apply a variational inference approach to the learning of Gaussian graphical models of gene regulatory networks, that enables us to perform Bayesian model selection that is significantly more computationally efficient than Markov Chain Monte Carlo approaches. Our method is demonstrated to be more robust than independent analysis of data from multiple conditions when applied to synthetic network data, generating fewer false positive predictions of differential edges. We demonstrate the utility of our approach on real world gene expression microarray data by applying it to existing data from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis cases with and without mutations in C9orf72, and controls, where we are able to identify differential network interactions for further investigation.
A hierarchical Bayesian framework for force field selection in molecular dynamics simulations.
Wu, S; Angelikopoulos, P; Papadimitriou, C; Moser, R; Koumoutsakos, P
2016-02-13
We present a hierarchical Bayesian framework for the selection of force fields in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The framework associates the variability of the optimal parameters of the MD potentials under different environmental conditions with the corresponding variability in experimental data. The high computational cost associated with the hierarchical Bayesian framework is reduced by orders of magnitude through a parallelized Transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo method combined with the Laplace Asymptotic Approximation. The suitability of the hierarchical approach is demonstrated by performing MD simulations with prescribed parameters to obtain data for transport coefficients under different conditions, which are then used to infer and evaluate the parameters of the MD model. We demonstrate the selection of MD models based on experimental data and verify that the hierarchical model can accurately quantify the uncertainty across experiments; improve the posterior probability density function estimation of the parameters, thus, improve predictions on future experiments; identify the most plausible force field to describe the underlying structure of a given dataset. The framework and associated software are applicable to a wide range of nanoscale simulations associated with experimental data with a hierarchical structure.
Link, William; Sauer, John R.
2016-01-01
The analysis of ecological data has changed in two important ways over the last 15 years. The development and easy availability of Bayesian computational methods has allowed and encouraged the fitting of complex hierarchical models. At the same time, there has been increasing emphasis on acknowledging and accounting for model uncertainty. Unfortunately, the ability to fit complex models has outstripped the development of tools for model selection and model evaluation: familiar model selection tools such as Akaike's information criterion and the deviance information criterion are widely known to be inadequate for hierarchical models. In addition, little attention has been paid to the evaluation of model adequacy in context of hierarchical modeling, i.e., to the evaluation of fit for a single model. In this paper, we describe Bayesian cross-validation, which provides tools for model selection and evaluation. We describe the Bayesian predictive information criterion and a Bayesian approximation to the BPIC known as the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion. We illustrate the use of these tools for model selection, and the use of Bayesian cross-validation as a tool for model evaluation, using three large data sets from the North American Breeding Bird Survey.
Link, William A; Sauer, John R
2016-07-01
The analysis of ecological data has changed in two important ways over the last 15 years. The development and easy availability of Bayesian computational methods has allowed and encouraged the fitting of complex hierarchical models. At the same time, there has been increasing emphasis on acknowledging and accounting for model uncertainty. Unfortunately, the ability to fit complex models has outstripped the development of tools for model selection and model evaluation: familiar model selection tools such as Akaike's information criterion and the deviance information criterion are widely known to be inadequate for hierarchical models. In addition, little attention has been paid to the evaluation of model adequacy in context of hierarchical modeling, i.e., to the evaluation of fit for a single model. In this paper, we describe Bayesian cross-validation, which provides tools for model selection and evaluation. We describe the Bayesian predictive information criterion and a Bayesian approximation to the BPIC known as the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion. We illustrate the use of these tools for model selection, and the use of Bayesian cross-validation as a tool for model evaluation, using three large data sets from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.
Peterson, Christine B; Stingo, Francesco C; Vannucci, Marina
2016-03-30
In this work, we develop a Bayesian approach to perform selection of predictors that are linked within a network. We achieve this by combining a sparse regression model relating the predictors to a response variable with a graphical model describing conditional dependencies among the predictors. The proposed method is well-suited for genomic applications because it allows the identification of pathways of functionally related genes or proteins that impact an outcome of interest. In contrast to previous approaches for network-guided variable selection, we infer the network among predictors using a Gaussian graphical model and do not assume that network information is available a priori. We demonstrate that our method outperforms existing methods in identifying network-structured predictors in simulation settings and illustrate our proposed model with an application to inference of proteins relevant to glioblastoma survival.
Joint Bayesian variable and graph selection for regression models with network-structured predictors
Peterson, C. B.; Stingo, F. C.; Vannucci, M.
2015-01-01
In this work, we develop a Bayesian approach to perform selection of predictors that are linked within a network. We achieve this by combining a sparse regression model relating the predictors to a response variable with a graphical model describing conditional dependencies among the predictors. The proposed method is well-suited for genomic applications since it allows the identification of pathways of functionally related genes or proteins which impact an outcome of interest. In contrast to previous approaches for network-guided variable selection, we infer the network among predictors using a Gaussian graphical model and do not assume that network information is available a priori. We demonstrate that our method outperforms existing methods in identifying network-structured predictors in simulation settings, and illustrate our proposed model with an application to inference of proteins relevant to glioblastoma survival. PMID:26514925
A Bayesian Framework for Landing Site Selection During Autonomous Spacecraft Descent
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Serrano, Navid
2006-01-01
The success of a landed space exploration mission depends largely on the final landing site. Factors influencing site selection include safety, fuel-consumption, and scientific return. This paper addresses the problem of selecting the best available landing site based on these factors in real-time during autonomous spacecraft descent onto a planetary surface. The problem is modeled probabilistically using Bayesian Networks (BNs). BNs provide a means of representing the causal relationships between variables that impact the quality of a landing site. The final landing site is determined via probabilistic reasoning based on terrain safety derived from on-board sensors, available fuel based on spacecraft descent dynamics, and regions of interest defined by mission scientists.
A Bayesian Framework for Landing Site Selection During Autonomous Spacecraft Descent
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Serrano, Navid
2006-01-01
The success of a landed space exploration mission depends largely on the final landing site. Factors influencing site selection include safety, fuel-consumption, and scientific return. This paper addresses the problem of selecting the best available landing site based on these factors in real-time during autonomous spacecraft descent onto a planetary surface. The problem is modeled probabilistically using Bayesian Networks (BNs). BNs provide a means of representing the causal relationships between variables that impact the quality of a landing site. The final landing site is determined via probabilistic reasoning based on terrain safety derived from on-board sensors, available fuel based on spacecraft descent dynamics, and regions of interest defined by mission scientists.
Bayesian inference of selection in a heterogeneous environment from genetic time-series data.
Gompert, Zachariah
2016-01-01
Evolutionary geneticists have sought to characterize the causes and molecular targets of selection in natural populations for many years. Although this research programme has been somewhat successful, most statistical methods employed were designed to detect consistent, weak to moderate selection. In contrast, phenotypic studies in nature show that selection varies in time and that individual bouts of selection can be strong. Measurements of the genomic consequences of such fluctuating selection could help test and refine hypotheses concerning the causes of ecological specialization and the maintenance of genetic variation in populations. Herein, I proposed a Bayesian nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model to estimate effective population sizes and quantify variable selection in heterogeneous environments from genetic time-series data. The model is described and then evaluated using a series of simulated data, including cases where selection occurs on a trait with a simple or polygenic molecular basis. The proposed method accurately distinguished neutral loci from non-neutral loci under strong selection, but not from those under weak selection. Selection coefficients were accurately estimated when selection was constant or when the fitness values of genotypes varied linearly with the environment, but these estimates were less accurate when fitness was polygenic or the relationship between the environment and the fitness of genotypes was nonlinear. Past studies of temporal evolutionary dynamics in laboratory populations have been remarkably successful. The proposed method makes similar analyses of genetic time-series data from natural populations more feasible and thereby could help answer fundamental questions about the causes and consequences of evolution in the wild.
Keightley, Peter D; Eöry, Lél; Halligan, Daniel L; Kirkpatrick, Mark
2011-04-01
We develop an inference method that uses approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to simultaneously estimate mutational parameters and selective constraint on the basis of nucleotide divergence for protein-coding genes between pairs of species. Our simulations explicitly model CpG hypermutability and transition vs. transversion mutational biases along with negative and positive selection operating on synonymous and nonsynonymous sites. We evaluate the method by simulations in which true mean parameter values are known and show that it produces reasonably unbiased parameter estimates as long as sequences are not too short and sequence divergence is not too low. We show that the use of quadratic regression within ABC offers an improvement over linear regression, but that weighted regression has little impact on the efficiency of the procedure. We apply the method to estimate mutational and selective constraint parameters in data sets of protein-coding genes extracted from the genome sequences of primates, murids, and carnivores. Estimates of CpG hypermutability are substantially higher in primates than murids and carnivores. Nonsynonymous site selective constraint is substantially higher in murids and carnivores than primates, and autosomal nonsynonymous constraint is higher than X-chromsome constraint in all taxa. We detect significant selective constraint at synonymous sites in primates, carnivores, and murid rodents. Synonymous site selective constraint is weakest in murids, a surprising result, considering that murid effective population sizes are likely to be considerably higher than the other two taxa.
Akkasi, Abbas; Varoglu, Ekrem
2016-05-18
Named Entity Recognition (NER) is a basic step for large number of consequent text mining tasks in the biochemical domain. Increasing the performance of such recognition systems is of high importance and always poses a challenge. In this study, a new community based decision making system is proposed which aims at increasing the efficiency of NER systems in the chemical/drug name context. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is chosen as the expert selection strategy along with the Bayesian combination method to merge the outputs of the selected classifiers as well as evaluate the fitness of the selected candidates. The proposed system performs in two steps. The first step is focuses on creating various numbers of baseline classifiers for NER with different features sets using the Conditional Random Fields (CRFs). The second step involves the selection and efficient combination of the classifiers using PSO and Bayesisan combination. Two comprehensive corpora from BioCreative events, namely ChemDNER and CEMP, are used for the experiments conducted. Results show that the ensemble of classifiers selected by means of the proposed approach perform better than the single best classifier as well as ensembles formed using other popular selection/combination strategies for both corpora. Furthermore, the proposed method outperforms the best performing system at the Biocreative IV ChemDNER track by achieving an F-score of 87.95%.
Ander, Bradley P.; Zhang, Xiaoshuai; Xue, Fuzhong; Sharp, Frank R.; Yang, Xiaowei
2013-01-01
The discovery of genetic or genomic markers plays a central role in the development of personalized medicine. A notable challenge exists when dealing with the high dimensionality of the data sets, as thousands of genes or millions of genetic variants are collected on a relatively small number of subjects. Traditional gene-wise selection methods using univariate analyses face difficulty to incorporate correlational, structural, or functional structures amongst the molecular measures. For microarray gene expression data, we first summarize solutions in dealing with ‘large p, small n’ problems, and then propose an integrative Bayesian variable selection (iBVS) framework for simultaneously identifying causal or marker genes and regulatory pathways. A novel partial least squares (PLS) g-prior for iBVS is developed to allow the incorporation of prior knowledge on gene-gene interactions or functional relationships. From the point view of systems biology, iBVS enables user to directly target the joint effects of multiple genes and pathways in a hierarchical modeling diagram to predict disease status or phenotype. The estimated posterior selection probabilities offer probabilitic and biological interpretations. Both simulated data and a set of microarray data in predicting stroke status are used in validating the performance of iBVS in a Probit model with binary outcomes. iBVS offers a general framework for effective discovery of various molecular biomarkers by combining data-based statistics and knowledge-based priors. Guidelines on making posterior inferences, determining Bayesian significance levels, and improving computational efficiencies are also discussed. PMID:23844055
Uncovering selection bias in case-control studies using Bayesian post-stratification.
Geneletti, S; Best, N; Toledano, M B; Elliott, P; Richardson, S
2013-07-10
Case-control studies are particularly prone to selection bias, which can affect odds ratio estimation. Approaches to discovering and adjusting for selection bias have been proposed in the literature using graphical and heuristic tools as well as more complex statistical methods. The approach we propose is based on a survey-weighting method termed Bayesian post-stratification and follows from the conditional independences that characterise selection bias. We use our approach to perform a selection bias sensitivity analysis by using ancillary data sources that describe the target case-control population to re-weight the odds ratio estimates obtained from the study. The method is applied to two case-control studies, the first investigating the association between exposure to electromagnetic fields and acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in children and the second investigating the association between maternal occupational exposure to hairspray and a congenital anomaly in male babies called hypospadias. In both case-control studies, our method showed that the odds ratios were only moderately sensitive to selection bias.
Liepe, Juliane; Kirk, Paul; Filippi, Sarah; Toni, Tina; Barnes, Chris P.; Stumpf, Michael P.H.
2016-01-01
As modeling becomes a more widespread practice in the life- and biomedical sciences, we require reliable tools to calibrate models against ever more complex and detailed data. Here we present an approximate Bayesian computation framework and software environment, ABC-SysBio, which enables parameter estimation and model selection in the Bayesian formalism using Sequential Monte-Carlo approaches. We outline the underlying rationale, discuss the computational and practical issues, and provide detailed guidance as to how the important tasks of parameter inference and model selection can be carried out in practice. Unlike other available packages, ABC-SysBio is highly suited for investigating in particular the challenging problem of fitting stochastic models to data. Although computationally expensive, the additional insights gained in the Bayesian formalism more than make up for this cost, especially in complex problems. PMID:24457334
The FIRST-2MASS Red Quasar Survey
Glikman, E; Helfand, D J; White, R L; Becker, R H; Gregg, M D; Lacy, M
2007-06-28
Combining radio observations with optical and infrared color selection--demonstrated in our pilot study to be an efficient selection algorithm for finding red quasars--we have obtained optical and infrared spectroscopy for 120 objects in a complete sample of 156 candidates from a sky area of 2716 square degrees. Consistent with our initial results, we find our selection criteria--J-K > 1.7,R-K > 4.0--yield a {approx} 50% success rate for discovering quasars substantially redder than those found in optical surveys. Comparison with UVX- and optical color-selected samples shows that {approx}> 10% of the quasars are missed in a magnitude-limited survey. Simultaneous two-frequency radio observations for part of the sample indicate that a synchrotron continuum component is ruled out as a significant contributor to reddening the quasars spectra. We go on to estimate extinctions for our objects assuming their red colors are caused by dust. Continuum fits and Balmer decrements suggest E(B-V) values ranging from near zero to 2.5 magnitudes. Correcting the K-band magnitudes for these extinctions, we find that for K {le} 14.0, red quasars make up between 25% and 60% of the underlying quasar population; owing to the incompleteness of the 2MASS survey at fainter K-band magnitudes, we can only set a lower limit to the radio-detected red quasar population of > 20-30%.
Survey of approaches for targeting quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Yanxia; Zhao, Yong-Heng
2012-09-01
The study of quasars is of great importance to the formation and evolution of galaxies and the early history of the universe, especially high redshift quasars. With the development and employment of large sky spectroscopic survey projects (e.g. 2dF, SDSS), the number of quasars increases to more than 200,000. For improving the efficiency of high-cost telescopes, careful selecting observational targets is necessary. Therefore various targeting quasar algorithms are used and developed based on different data. We review them in detail. Some statistical approaches are based on photometric color, variability, UV-excess, BRX, radio properties, color-color cut and so on. Automated methods include support vector machines (SVMs), kernel density estimation (KDE), artificial neural networks (ANNs), extreme-deconvolution method, probabilistic principal surfaces (PPS) and the negative entropy clustering (NEC), etc. In addition, we touch upon some quasar candidate catalogues created by different algorithms.
Maximum entropy perception-action space: a Bayesian model of eye movement selection
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Colas, Francis; Bessière, Pierre; Girard, Benoît
2011-03-01
In this article, we investigate the issue of the selection of eye movements in a free-eye Multiple Object Tracking task. We propose a Bayesian model of retinotopic maps with a complex logarithmic mapping. This model is structured in two parts: a representation of the visual scene, and a decision model based on the representation. We compare different decision models based on different features of the representation and we show that taking into account uncertainty helps predict the eye movements of subjects recorded in a psychophysics experiment. Finally, based on experimental data, we postulate that the complex logarithmic mapping has a functional relevance, as the density of objects in this space in more uniform than expected. This may indicate that the representation space and control strategies are such that the object density is of maximum entropy.
Scheel, Ida; Ferkingstad, Egil; Frigessi, Arnoldo; Haug, Ola; Hinnerichsen, Mikkel; Meze-Hausken, Elisabeth
2013-01-01
Climate change will affect the insurance industry. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical statistical approach to explain and predict insurance losses due to weather events at a local geographic scale. The number of weather-related insurance claims is modelled by combining generalized linear models with spatially smoothed variable selection. Using Gibbs sampling and reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, this model is fitted on daily weather and insurance data from each of the 319 municipalities which constitute southern and central Norway for the period 1997–2006. Precise out-of-sample predictions validate the model. Our results show interesting regional patterns in the effect of different weather covariates. In addition to being useful for insurance pricing, our model can be used for short-term predictions based on weather forecasts and for long-term predictions based on downscaled climate models. PMID:23396890
The Continual Reassessment Method for Multiple Toxicity Grades: A Bayesian Model Selection Approach
Yuan, Ying; Zhang, Shemin; Zhang, Wenhong; Li, Chanjuan; Wang, Ling; Xia, Jielai
2014-01-01
Grade information has been considered in Yuan et al. (2007) wherein they proposed a Quasi-CRM method to incorporate the grade toxicity information in phase I trials. A potential problem with the Quasi-CRM model is that the choice of skeleton may dramatically vary the performance of the CRM model, which results in similar consequences for the Quasi-CRM model. In this paper, we propose a new model by utilizing bayesian model selection approach – Robust Quasi-CRM model – to tackle the above-mentioned pitfall with the Quasi-CRM model. The Robust Quasi-CRM model literally inherits the BMA-CRM model proposed by Yin and Yuan (2009) to consider a parallel of skeletons for Quasi-CRM. The superior performance of Robust Quasi-CRM model was demonstrated by extensive simulation studies. We conclude that the proposed method can be freely used in real practice. PMID:24875783
Scheel, Ida; Ferkingstad, Egil; Frigessi, Arnoldo; Haug, Ola; Hinnerichsen, Mikkel; Meze-Hausken, Elisabeth
2013-01-01
Climate change will affect the insurance industry. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical statistical approach to explain and predict insurance losses due to weather events at a local geographic scale. The number of weather-related insurance claims is modelled by combining generalized linear models with spatially smoothed variable selection. Using Gibbs sampling and reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, this model is fitted on daily weather and insurance data from each of the 319 municipalities which constitute southern and central Norway for the period 1997-2006. Precise out-of-sample predictions validate the model. Our results show interesting regional patterns in the effect of different weather covariates. In addition to being useful for insurance pricing, our model can be used for short-term predictions based on weather forecasts and for long-term predictions based on downscaled climate models.
Bayesian sensitivity analysis of incomplete data: bridging pattern-mixture and selection models.
Kaciroti, Niko A; Raghunathan, Trivellore
2014-11-30
Pattern-mixture models (PMM) and selection models (SM) are alternative approaches for statistical analysis when faced with incomplete data and a nonignorable missing-data mechanism. Both models make empirically unverifiable assumptions and need additional constraints to identify the parameters. Here, we first introduce intuitive parameterizations to identify PMM for different types of outcome with distribution in the exponential family; then we translate these to their equivalent SM approach. This provides a unified framework for performing sensitivity analysis under either setting. These new parameterizations are transparent, easy-to-use, and provide dual interpretation from both the PMM and SM perspectives. A Bayesian approach is used to perform sensitivity analysis, deriving inferences using informative prior distributions on the sensitivity parameters. These models can be fitted using software that implements Gibbs sampling.
Sparse Bayesian Regression with Integrated Feature Selection for Nuclear Reactor Analysis
Dayman, Ken J; Ade, Brian J; Weber, Charles F
2017-01-01
High-dimensional, nonlinear function estimation using large datasets is a current area of interest in the machine learning community, and applications may be found throughout the analytical sciences, where ever-growing datasets are making more information available to the analyst. In this paper, we leverage the existing relevance vector machine, a sparse Bayesian version of the well-studied support vector machine, and expand the method to include integrated feature selection and automatic function shaping. These innovations produce an algorithm that is able to distinguish variables that are useful for making predictions of a response from variables that are unrelated or confusing. We test the technology using synthetic data, conduct initial performance studies, and develop a model capable of making position-independent predictions of the coreaveraged burnup using a single specimen drawn randomly from a nuclear reactor core.
Dynamical modelling of NGC 6809: selecting the best model using Bayesian inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Diakogiannis, Foivos I.; Lewis, Geraint F.; Ibata, Rodrigo A.
2014-02-01
The precise cosmological origin of globular clusters remains uncertain, a situation hampered by the struggle of observational approaches in conclusively identifying the presence, or not, of dark matter in these systems. In this paper, we address this question through an analysis of the particular case of NGC 6809. While previous studies have performed dynamical modelling of this globular cluster using a small number of available kinematic data, they did not perform appropriate statistical inference tests for the choice of best model description; such statistical inference for model selection is important since, in general, different models can result in significantly different inferred quantities. With the latest kinematic data, we use Bayesian inference tests for model selection and thus obtain the best-fitting models, as well as mass and dynamic mass-to-light ratio estimates. For this, we introduce a new likelihood function that provides more constrained distributions for the defining parameters of dynamical models. Initially, we consider models with a known distribution function, and then model the cluster using solutions of the spherically symmetric Jeans equation; this latter approach depends upon the mass density profile and anisotropy β parameter. In order to find the best description for the cluster we compare these models by calculating their Bayesian evidence. We find smaller mass and dynamic mass-to-light ratio values than previous studies, with the best-fitting Michie model for a constant mass-to-light ratio of Upsilon = 0.90^{+0.14}_{-0.14} and M_{dyn}=6.10^{+0.51}_{-0.88} × 10^4 M_{{⊙}}. We exclude the significant presence of dark matter throughout the cluster, showing that no physically motivated distribution of dark matter can be present away from the cluster core.
Bayesian Feature Selection with Strongly Regularizing Priors Maps to the Ising Model.
Fisher, Charles K; Mehta, Pankaj
2015-11-01
Identifying small subsets of features that are relevant for prediction and classification tasks is a central problem in machine learning and statistics. The feature selection task is especially important, and computationally difficult, for modern data sets where the number of features can be comparable to or even exceed the number of samples. Here, we show that feature selection with Bayesian inference takes a universal form and reduces to calculating the magnetizations of an Ising model under some mild conditions. Our results exploit the observation that the evidence takes a universal form for strongly regularizing priors--priors that have a large effect on the posterior probability even in the infinite data limit. We derive explicit expressions for feature selection for generalized linear models, a large class of statistical techniques that includes linear and logistic regression. We illustrate the power of our approach by analyzing feature selection in a logistic regression-based classifier trained to distinguish between the letters B and D in the notMNIST data set.
The hidden quasar nucleus of a WISE-selected, hyperluminous, dust-obscured galaxy at z ~ 2.3
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Piconcelli, E.; Vignali, C.; Bianchi, S.; Zappacosta, L.; Fritz, J.; Lanzuisi, G.; Miniutti, G.; Bongiorno, A.; Feruglio, C.; Fiore, F.; Maiolino, R.
2015-02-01
We present the first X-ray spectrum of a hot dust-obscured galaxy (DOG), namely W1835+4355 at z ~ 2.3. Hot DOGs represent a very rare population of hyperluminous (≥1047 erg s-1), dust-enshrouded objects at z ≥ 2 recently discovered in the WISE All Sky Survey. The 40 ks XMM-Newton spectrum reveals a continuum as flat (Γ ~ 0.8) as typically seen in heavily obscured AGN. This, along with the presence of strong Fe Kα emission, clearly suggests a reflection-dominated spectrum due to Compton-thick absorption. In this scenario, the observed luminosity of L2-10~ 2 × 1044 erg s-1 is a fraction (<10%) of the intrinsic one, which is estimated to be ≳ 5 × 1045 erg s-1 by using several proxies. The Herschel data allow us to constrain the SED up to the sub-mm band, providing a reliable estimate of the quasar contribution (~75%) to the IR luminosity as well as the amount of star formation (~2100 M⊙ yr-1). Our results thus provide additional pieces of evidence that associate Hot DOGs with an exceptionally dusty phase during which luminous quasars and massive galaxies co-evolve and a very efficient and powerful AGN-driven feedback mechanism is predicted by models.
Zigler, Corwin Matthew; Dominici, Francesca
2014-01-01
Causal inference with observational data frequently relies on the notion of the propensity score (PS) to adjust treatment comparisons for observed confounding factors. As decisions in the era of “big data” are increasingly reliant on large and complex collections of digital data, researchers are frequently confronted with decisions regarding which of a high-dimensional covariate set to include in the PS model in order to satisfy the assumptions necessary for estimating average causal effects. Typically, simple or ad-hoc methods are employed to arrive at a single PS model, without acknowledging the uncertainty associated with the model selection. We propose three Bayesian methods for PS variable selection and model averaging that 1) select relevant variables from a set of candidate variables to include in the PS model and 2) estimate causal treatment effects as weighted averages of estimates under different PS models. The associated weight for each PS model reflects the data-driven support for that model’s ability to adjust for the necessary variables. We illustrate features of our proposed approaches with a simulation study, and ultimately use our methods to compare the effectiveness of surgical vs. nonsurgical treatment for brain tumors among 2,606 Medicare beneficiaries. Supplementary materials are available online. PMID:24696528
Zigler, Corwin Matthew; Dominici, Francesca
2014-01-01
Causal inference with observational data frequently relies on the notion of the propensity score (PS) to adjust treatment comparisons for observed confounding factors. As decisions in the era of "big data" are increasingly reliant on large and complex collections of digital data, researchers are frequently confronted with decisions regarding which of a high-dimensional covariate set to include in the PS model in order to satisfy the assumptions necessary for estimating average causal effects. Typically, simple or ad-hoc methods are employed to arrive at a single PS model, without acknowledging the uncertainty associated with the model selection. We propose three Bayesian methods for PS variable selection and model averaging that 1) select relevant variables from a set of candidate variables to include in the PS model and 2) estimate causal treatment effects as weighted averages of estimates under different PS models. The associated weight for each PS model reflects the data-driven support for that model's ability to adjust for the necessary variables. We illustrate features of our proposed approaches with a simulation study, and ultimately use our methods to compare the effectiveness of surgical vs. nonsurgical treatment for brain tumors among 2,606 Medicare beneficiaries. Supplementary materials are available online.
Bayesian model selection validates a biokinetic model for zirconium processing in humans
2012-01-01
Background In radiation protection, biokinetic models for zirconium processing are of crucial importance in dose estimation and further risk analysis for humans exposed to this radioactive substance. They provide limiting values of detrimental effects and build the basis for applications in internal dosimetry, the prediction for radioactive zirconium retention in various organs as well as retrospective dosimetry. Multi-compartmental models are the tool of choice for simulating the processing of zirconium. Although easily interpretable, determining the exact compartment structure and interaction mechanisms is generally daunting. In the context of observing the dynamics of multiple compartments, Bayesian methods provide efficient tools for model inference and selection. Results We are the first to apply a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to compute Bayes factors for the evaluation of two competing models for zirconium processing in the human body after ingestion. Based on in vivo measurements of human plasma and urine levels we were able to show that a recently published model is superior to the standard model of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. The Bayes factors were estimated by means of the numerically stable thermodynamic integration in combination with a recently developed copula-based Metropolis-Hastings sampler. Conclusions In contrast to the standard model the novel model predicts lower accretion of zirconium in bones. This results in lower levels of noxious doses for exposed individuals. Moreover, the Bayesian approach allows for retrospective dose assessment, including credible intervals for the initially ingested zirconium, in a significantly more reliable fashion than previously possible. All methods presented here are readily applicable to many modeling tasks in systems biology. PMID:22863152
Bayesian model selection validates a biokinetic model for zirconium processing in humans.
Schmidl, Daniel; Hug, Sabine; Li, Wei Bo; Greiter, Matthias B; Theis, Fabian J
2012-08-05
In radiation protection, biokinetic models for zirconium processing are of crucial importance in dose estimation and further risk analysis for humans exposed to this radioactive substance. They provide limiting values of detrimental effects and build the basis for applications in internal dosimetry, the prediction for radioactive zirconium retention in various organs as well as retrospective dosimetry. Multi-compartmental models are the tool of choice for simulating the processing of zirconium. Although easily interpretable, determining the exact compartment structure and interaction mechanisms is generally daunting. In the context of observing the dynamics of multiple compartments, Bayesian methods provide efficient tools for model inference and selection. We are the first to apply a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to compute Bayes factors for the evaluation of two competing models for zirconium processing in the human body after ingestion. Based on in vivo measurements of human plasma and urine levels we were able to show that a recently published model is superior to the standard model of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. The Bayes factors were estimated by means of the numerically stable thermodynamic integration in combination with a recently developed copula-based Metropolis-Hastings sampler. In contrast to the standard model the novel model predicts lower accretion of zirconium in bones. This results in lower levels of noxious doses for exposed individuals. Moreover, the Bayesian approach allows for retrospective dose assessment, including credible intervals for the initially ingested zirconium, in a significantly more reliable fashion than previously possible. All methods presented here are readily applicable to many modeling tasks in systems biology.
Ai, Y. L.; Wu, Xue-Bing; Yang, Jinyi; Yang, Qian; Wang, Feige; Guo, Rui; Dong, Xiaoyi; Zuo, Wenwen; Shen, S.-Y.; Zhang, Y.-X.; Yuan, H.-L.; Song, Y.-H.; Yang, M.; Wu, H.; Shi, J.-R.; He, B.-L.; Lei, Y.-J.; Li, Y.-B.; Wang, Jianguo; Dong, Xiaobo; and others
2016-02-15
We present preliminary results of the quasar survey in the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) first data release (DR1), which includes the pilot survey and the first year of the regular survey. There are 3921 quasars reliably identified, among which 1180 are new quasars discovered in the survey. These quasars are at low to median redshifts, with a highest z of 4.83. We compile emission line measurements around the Hα, Hβ, Mg ii, and C iv regions for the new quasars. The continuum luminosities are inferred from SDSS photometric data with model fitting, as the spectra in DR1 are non-flux-calibrated. We also compile the virial black hole mass estimates, with flags indicating the selection methods, and broad absorption line quasars. The catalog and spectra for these quasars are also available. Of the 3921 quasars, 28% are independently selected with optical–infrared colors, indicating that the method is quite promising for the completeness of the quasar survey. LAMOST DR1 and the ongoing quasar survey will provide valuable data for studies of quasars.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ai, Y. L.; Wu, Xue-Bing; Yang, Jinyi; Yang, Qian; Wang, Feige; Guo, Rui; Zuo, Wenwen; Dong, Xiaoyi; Zhang, Y.-X.; Yuan, H.-L.; Song, Y.-H.; Wang, Jianguo; Dong, Xiaobo; Yang, M.; -Wu, H.; Shen, S.-Y.; Shi, J.-R.; He, B.-L.; Lei, Y.-J.; Li, Y.-B.; Luo, A.-L.; Zhao, Y.-H.; Zhang, H.-T.
2016-02-01
We present preliminary results of the quasar survey in the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) first data release (DR1), which includes the pilot survey and the first year of the regular survey. There are 3921 quasars reliably identified, among which 1180 are new quasars discovered in the survey. These quasars are at low to median redshifts, with a highest z of 4.83. We compile emission line measurements around the Hα, Hβ, Mg ii, and C iv regions for the new quasars. The continuum luminosities are inferred from SDSS photometric data with model fitting, as the spectra in DR1 are non-flux-calibrated. We also compile the virial black hole mass estimates, with flags indicating the selection methods, and broad absorption line quasars. The catalog and spectra for these quasars are also available. Of the 3921 quasars, 28% are independently selected with optical-infrared colors, indicating that the method is quite promising for the completeness of the quasar survey. LAMOST DR1 and the ongoing quasar survey will provide valuable data for studies of quasars.
ON THE LINK BETWEEN ASSOCIATED Mg II ABSORBERS AND STAR FORMATION IN QUASAR HOSTS
Shen Yue; Menard, Brice E-mail: menard@pha.jhu.edu
2012-04-01
A few percent of quasars show strong associated Mg II absorption, with velocities (v{sub off}) lying within a few thousand km s{sup -1} from the quasar systemic redshift. These associated absorption line (AAL) systems are usually interpreted as absorbers that are either intrinsic to the quasar and its host, or arising from external galaxies clustering around the quasar. Using composite spectra of {approx}1800 Mg II AAL quasars selected from SDSS DR7 at 0.4 {approx}< z {approx}< 2, we show that quasars with AALs with v{sub off} < 1500 km s{sup -1} have a prominent excess in [O II] {lambda}3727 emission (detected at >7{sigma}) at rest relative to the quasar host, compared to unabsorbed quasars. We interpret this [O II] excess as due to enhanced star formation in the quasar host. Our results suggest that a significant fraction of AALs with v{sub off} < 1500 km s{sup -1} are physically associated with the quasar and its host. AAL quasars also have dust reddening lying between normal quasars and the so-called dust-reddened quasars. We suggest that the unique properties of AAL quasars can be explained if they are the transitional population from heavily dust-reddened quasars to normal quasars in the formation process of quasars and their hosts. This scenario predicts a larger fraction of young bulges, disturbed morphologies, and interactions of AAL quasar hosts compared to normal quasars. The intrinsic link between associated absorbers and quasar hosts opens a new window to probe massive galaxy formation and galactic-scale feedback processes, and provides a crucial test of the evolutionary picture of quasars.
Extreme Red Quasars in SDSS-BOSS
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hamann, Fred; Zakamska, Nadia; Paris, Isabelle; Herbst, Hanna; Villforth, Carolin; Alexandroff, Rachael; Ross, Nicholas; Greene, Jenny; Strauss, Michael
2015-08-01
Red quasars are believed to mark a critical transition stage of massive galaxy evolution when a blowout of gas and dust truncates the initial starburst and provides our first visible views of a luminous central AGN. Red quasars could therefore have unusual properties associated with a young evolution stage, such as higher accretion rates, higher rates of mergers and interactions, and more common or more powerful outflows capable of driving a galaxy-wide blowout (e.g., compared to normal blue quasars in presumably more evolved galaxy hosts). The recently completed Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopy Survey (BOSS) of SDSS-III has discovered many more faint quasars with higher redshifts and redder colors than any previous large survey. We combine BOSS spectra with SDSS and Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) photometry of nearly 100,000 quasars to identify and characterize the red quasar population at redshifts >2. We find a number of strong trends with the amount of reddening/obscuration. For example, red quasars are 5 to 8 times more likely to have broad absorption lines and other "intrinsic" absorption lines that identify quasar-driven outflows. Perhaps most interesting is that extreme red quasars (ERQs), selected via rest-frame UV to near-IR colors similar to Dust Obscured Galaxies (DOGs), have uniquely exotic emission line properties that include extreme velocity shifts between lines and the broadest and most blueshifted [OIII] lines yet discovered (with FWHMs reaching >3000 km/s). We will discuss the implications of these results for models of the structure and evolution of quasars and their host galaxy environments.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hamann, Fred; Zakamska, Nadia L.; Ross, Nicholas; Paris, Isabelle; Alexandroff, Rachael M.; Villforth, Carolin; Richards, Gordon T.; Herbst, Hanna; Brandt, W. Niel; Cook, Ben; Denney, Kelly D.; Greene, Jenny E.; Schneider, Donald P.; Strauss, Michael A.
2017-01-01
Red quasars are candidate young objects in an early transition stage of massive galaxy evolution. Our team recently discovered a population of extremely red quasars (ERQs) in the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) that has a suite of peculiar emission-line properties including large rest equivalent widths (REWs), unusual `wingless' line profiles, large N V/Lyα, N V/C IV, Si IV/C IV and other flux ratios, and very broad and blueshifted [O III] λ5007. Here we present a new catalogue of C IV and N V emission-line data for 216 188 BOSS quasars to characterize the ERQ line properties further. We show that they depend sharply on UV-to-mid-IR colour, secondarily on REW(C IV), and not at all on luminosity or the Baldwin Effect. We identify a `core' sample of 97 ERQs with nearly uniform peculiar properties selected via i-W3 ≥ 4.6 (AB) and REW(C IV) ≥ 100 Å at redshifts 2.0-3.4. A broader search finds 235 more red quasars with similar unusual characteristics. The core ERQs have median luminosity
Farrell, Kathryn Oden, J. Tinsley Faghihi, Danial
2015-08-15
A general adaptive modeling algorithm for selection and validation of coarse-grained models of atomistic systems is presented. A Bayesian framework is developed to address uncertainties in parameters, data, and model selection. Algorithms for computing output sensitivities to parameter variances, model evidence and posterior model plausibilities for given data, and for computing what are referred to as Occam Categories in reference to a rough measure of model simplicity, make up components of the overall approach. Computational results are provided for representative applications.
Using quasar physics to improve the celestial reference frame
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shabala, Stanislav; Plank, Lucia; McCallum, Jamie; Boehm, Johannes
2015-08-01
Radio-loud quasars making up the International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) are dynamic objects with significant structure that changes on timescales of months and years. This is a problem for reference frame stability, as realised through the geodetic and astrometric Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) technique, which has so far largely treated quasars as point sources in analysis. I will describe the source structure simulator recently implemented in the Vienna VLBI Software (VieVS) package, and quantify the effects of various levels of source structure on the celestial and terrestrial reference frames, and Earth Orientation Parameters linking these two frames. We find that even relatively modest levels of quasar structure can produce systematic effects that affect derived quasar positions significantly in excess of the noise floor of the present ICRF realisation, ICRF2.I will also discuss the observed relationship between astrophysical properties of quasars, their structure and geodetic stability. By simulating quasar structure and evolution in VieVS, we have devised various quasar mitigation strategies. These include: (1) astrophysically-based quasar selection techniques; (2) scheduling sources by taking into account quasar structure; and (3) analyzing geodetic and astrometric VLBI observations using knowledge of quasar structure. I will describe our simulation results, and outline promising quasar structure mitigation strategies.
Bayesian Covariate Selection in Mixed-Effects Models For Longitudinal Shape Analysis
Muralidharan, Prasanna; Fishbaugh, James; Kim, Eun Young; Johnson, Hans J.; Paulsen, Jane S.; Gerig, Guido; Fletcher, P. Thomas
2016-01-01
The goal of longitudinal shape analysis is to understand how anatomical shape changes over time, in response to biological processes, including growth, aging, or disease. In many imaging studies, it is also critical to understand how these shape changes are affected by other factors, such as sex, disease diagnosis, IQ, etc. Current approaches to longitudinal shape analysis have focused on modeling age-related shape changes, but have not included the ability to handle covariates. In this paper, we present a novel Bayesian mixed-effects shape model that incorporates simultaneous relationships between longitudinal shape data and multiple predictors or covariates to the model. Moreover, we place an Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) prior on the parameters, that lets us automatically select which covariates are most relevant to the model based on observed data. We evaluate our proposed model and inference procedure on a longitudinal study of Huntington's disease from PREDICT-HD. We first show the utility of the ARD prior for model selection in a univariate modeling of striatal volume, and next we apply the full high-dimensional longitudinal shape model to putamen shapes. PMID:28090246
Comparison of Two Gas Selection Methodologies: An Application of Bayesian Model Averaging
Renholds, Andrea S.; Thompson, Sandra E.; Anderson, Kevin K.; Chilton, Lawrence K.
2006-03-31
One goal of hyperspectral imagery analysis is the detection and characterization of plumes. Characterization includes identifying the gases in the plumes, which is a model selection problem. Two gas selection methods compared in this report are Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and minimum Akaike information criterion (AIC) stepwise regression (SR). Simulated spectral data from a three-layer radiance transfer model were used to compare the two methods. Test gases were chosen to span the types of spectra observed, which exhibit peaks ranging from broad to sharp. The size and complexity of the search libraries were varied. Background materials were chosen to either replicate a remote area of eastern Washington or feature many common background materials. For many cases, BMA and SR performed the detection task comparably in terms of the receiver operating characteristic curves. For some gases, BMA performed better than SR when the size and complexity of the search library increased. This is encouraging because we expect improved BMA performance upon incorporation of prior information on background materials and gases.
Bayesian selection of predictors of conception probabilities across the menstrual cycle.
Scarpa, Bruno; Dunson, David B
2006-11-01
There is increasing interest in identifying predictors of human fertility, including environmental exposures, behavioural factors, and biomarkers, such as mucus or reproductive hormones. Epidemiological studies typically measure fecundability, the per menstrual cycle probability of conception, using time to pregnancy data. A critical predictor, which is often ignored in the design or analysis, is the timing of non-contracepting intercourse in the menstrual cycle. In order to limit confounding by behavioural differences between exposure groups, it may be preferable to base inferences on day-specific conception probabilities in relation to intercourse timing. This article proposes Bayesian methods for selection of predictors of day-specific conception probabilities. A particular focus is the case in which data on ovulation timing are not available. We focus on the selection of fertile days in the cycle during which conception probabilities are non-negligible and predictors may play a role. Data from recent European and Italian prospective studies of daily fecundability are presented, and the proposed approach is used to estimate cervical mucus effects within a mid-cycle potentially fertile window using data from the Italian study.
Lu, Zhaohua; Zhu, Hongtu; Knickmeyer, Rebecca C; Sullivan, Patrick F.; Stephanie, Williams N.; Zou, Fei
2015-01-01
The power of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for mapping complex traits with single SNP analysis may be undermined by modest SNP effect sizes, unobserved causal SNPs, correlation among adjacent SNPs, and SNP-SNP interactions. Alternative approaches for testing the association between a single SNP-set and individual phenotypes have been shown to be promising for improving the power of GWAS. We propose a Bayesian latent variable selection (BLVS) method to simultaneously model the joint association mapping between a large number of SNP-sets and complex traits. Compared to single SNP-set analysis, such joint association mapping not only accounts for the correlation among SNP-sets, but also is capable of detecting causal SNP-sets that are marginally uncorrelated with traits. The spike-slab prior assigned to the effects of SNP-sets can greatly reduce the dimension of effective SNP-sets, while speeding up computation. An efficient MCMC algorithm is developed. Simulations demonstrate that BLVS outperforms several competing variable selection methods in some important scenarios. PMID:26515609
Smith, Carl
2017-02-01
Generalist parasites have the capacity to infect multiple hosts. The temporal pattern of host specificity by generalist parasites is rarely studied, but is critical to understanding what variables underpin infection and thereby the impact of parasites on host species and the way they impose selection on hosts. Here, the temporal dynamics of infection of four species of freshwater mussel by European bitterling fish (Rhodeus amarus) was investigated over three spawning seasons. Bitterling lay their eggs in the gills of freshwater mussels, which suffer reduced growth, oxygen stress, gill damage and elevated mortality as a result of parasitism. The temporal pattern of infection of mussels by European bitterling in multiple populations was examined. Using a Bernoulli Generalized Additive Mixed Model with Bayesian inference it was demonstrated that one mussel species, Unio pictorum, was exploited over the entire bitterling spawning season. As the season progressed, bitterling showed a preference for other mussel species, which were inferior hosts. Temporal changes in host use reflected elevated density-dependent mortality in preferred hosts that were already infected. Plasticity in host specificity by bitterling conformed with the predictions of the host selection hypothesis. The relationship between bitterling and their host mussels differs qualitatively from that of avian brood parasites.
Kelly, Brandon C.; Shen, Yue
2013-02-10
We employ a flexible Bayesian technique to estimate the black hole (BH) mass and Eddington ratio functions for Type 1 (i.e., broad line) quasars from a uniformly selected data set of {approx}58, 000 quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) DR7. We find that the SDSS becomes significantly incomplete at M {sub BH} {approx}< 3 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 8} M {sub Sun} or L/L {sub Edd} {approx}< 0.07, and that the number densities of Type 1 quasars continue to increase down to these limits. Both the mass and Eddington ratio functions show evidence of downsizing, with the most massive and highest Eddington ratio BHs experiencing Type 1 quasar phases first, although the Eddington ratio number densities are flat at z < 2. We estimate the maximum Eddington ratio of Type 1 quasars in the observable universe to be L/L {sub Edd} {approx} 3. Consistent with our results in Shen and Kelly, we do not find statistical evidence for a so-called sub-Eddington boundary in the mass-luminosity plane of broad-line quasars, and demonstrate that such an apparent boundary in the observed distribution can be caused by selection effect and errors in virial BH mass estimates. Based on the typical Eddington ratio in a given mass bin, we estimate growth times for the BHs in Type 1 quasars and find that they are comparable to or longer than the age of the universe, implying an earlier phase of accelerated (i.e., with higher Eddington ratios) and possibly obscured growth. The large masses probed by our sample imply that most of our BHs reside in what are locally early-type galaxies, and we interpret our results within the context of models of self-regulated BH growth.
Meinzer, Caitlyn; Martin, Renee; Suarez, Jose I
2017-09-08
In phase II trials, the most efficacious dose is usually not known. Moreover, given limited resources, it is difficult to robustly identify a dose while also testing for a signal of efficacy that would support a phase III trial. Recent designs have sought to be more efficient by exploring multiple doses through the use of adaptive strategies. However, the added flexibility may potentially increase the risk of making incorrect assumptions and reduce the total amount of information available across the dose range as a function of imbalanced sample size. To balance these challenges, a novel placebo-controlled design is presented in which a restricted Bayesian response adaptive randomization (RAR) is used to allocate a majority of subjects to the optimal dose of active drug, defined as the dose with the lowest probability of poor outcome. However, the allocation between subjects who receive active drug or placebo is held constant to retain the maximum possible power for a hypothesis test of overall efficacy comparing the optimal dose to placebo. The design properties and optimization of the design are presented in the context of a phase II trial for subarachnoid hemorrhage. For a fixed total sample size, a trade-off exists between the ability to select the optimal dose and the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis. This relationship is modified by the allocation ratio between active and control subjects, the choice of RAR algorithm, and the number of subjects allocated to an initial fixed allocation period. While a responsive RAR algorithm improves the ability to select the correct dose, there is an increased risk of assigning more subjects to a worse arm as a function of ephemeral trends in the data. A subarachnoid treatment trial is used to illustrate how this design can be customized for specific objectives and available data. Bayesian adaptive designs are a flexible approach to addressing multiple questions surrounding the optimal dose for treatment efficacy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vigotti, M.; Vettolani, G.; Merighi, R.; Lahulla, J. F.; Pedani, M.
1997-06-01
A new low frequency radio selected Sample of 125 Quasars complete down to 100 mJy at 408 MHz is presented in this paper. The sample is a part of the B3-VLA sample: 1050 radiosources selected from the B3 catalogue at 408 MHz and observed at the VLA (1465 MHz, C and A configurations). Out of the 352 sources, identified on the POSS-I down to mr ~20.0, 172 are quasar candidates. In this paper we give the final assessment of the quasar sample from spectroscopic observations of the candidates. The final complete quasar sample consists of 125 objects. Furthermore 3 Bl Lac objects have been identified and two Bl Lac candidates. Tables 4, 5, 6 and Figs. 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 are also available in electronic form at the CDS via anonymous ftp to: cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsweb.u-strasbg.fr/Abstract.html.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Elvis, Martin
2015-01-01
Velocity resolved reverberation mapping (VRRM) has shown clear evidence for inflows in the broad emission line (BEL) region of active galactic nuclei: redshifted BELs at zero lag (AGNs, e.g. Arp 151, Bentz et al. 2010; Grier et al. 2013). While radiative transfer in rotating disks can give shorter red side lags than blue, a zero lag has to be along our line of sight, so it is hard to escape infall. The BEL region is normally considered to be rotating or in outflow so this result is a surprise. Infalling BEL gas cannot fall far without the need to lose angular momentum for accreting gas producing an accretion disk.I suggest that quasar continuum irradiation induced cooling instabilities (Chakravorty et al 2009; Krolik, McKee & Tarter 1981) lead to dense BEL clouds condensing out of the semi-ubiquitous warm absorber (WA) outflows found in AGNs and that these clouds may produce a VRRM inflow signature.Unlike WA gas, dense high column density BEL clouds are hard to accelerate with radiation pressure (Risaliti & Elvis 2010; Mushotzky, Solomon & Strittmatter 1972). BEL clouds will thus stall in the outflow and begin to fall back toward the central black hole after a dynamical time, 'raining out' of the WA medium. If these BEL clouds condense out before these outflows reach escape velocity [v(esc)] then this inflow can potentially produce the observed VRRM signature. As the clouds fall back in they will be moving on elliptical orbits supersonically through the WA gas with Mach number ~(2000 km/s)/(100km/s) ~20. This will produce comet-like structures with narrow opening angles, as seen in asymmetric X-ray absorbing 'eclipses' (Maiolino et al. 2010). They will survive only a few months, as required to avoid forming a disk. For this picture to work the condensation time must be less than the acceleration time to v(esc) and the destruction time must be longer than the dynamical time.
A Bayesian predictive sample size selection design for single-arm exploratory clinical trials.
Teramukai, Satoshi; Daimon, Takashi; Zohar, Sarah
2012-12-30
The aim of an exploratory clinical trial is to determine whether a new intervention is promising for further testing in confirmatory clinical trials. Most exploratory clinical trials are designed as single-arm trials using a binary outcome with or without interim monitoring for early stopping. In this context, we propose a Bayesian adaptive design denoted as predictive sample size selection design (PSSD). The design allows for sample size selection following any planned interim analyses for early stopping of a trial, together with sample size determination before starting the trial. In the PSSD, we determine the sample size using the method proposed by Sambucini (Statistics in Medicine 2008; 27:1199-1224), which adopts a predictive probability criterion with two kinds of prior distributions, that is, an 'analysis prior' used to compute posterior probabilities and a 'design prior' used to obtain prior predictive distributions. In the sample size determination of the PSSD, we provide two sample sizes, that is, N and N(max) , using two types of design priors. At each interim analysis, we calculate the predictive probabilities of achieving a successful result at the end of the trial using the analysis prior in order to stop the trial in case of low or high efficacy (Lee et al., Clinical Trials 2008; 5:93-106), and we select an optimal sample size, that is, either N or N(max) as needed, on the basis of the predictive probabilities. We investigate the operating characteristics through simulation studies, and the PSSD retrospectively applies to a lung cancer clinical trial. (243)
Zhao, Kaiguang; Valle, Denis; Popescu, Sorin; Zhang, Xuesong; Malick, Bani
2013-05-15
Model specification remains challenging in spectroscopy of plant biochemistry, as exemplified by the availability of various spectral indices or band combinations for estimating the same biochemical. This lack of consensus in model choice across applications argues for a paradigm shift in hyperspectral methods to address model uncertainty and misspecification. We demonstrated one such method using Bayesian model averaging (BMA), which performs variable/band selection and quantifies the relative merits of many candidate models to synthesize a weighted average model with improved predictive performances. The utility of BMA was examined using a portfolio of 27 foliage spectral–chemical datasets representing over 80 species across the globe to estimate multiple biochemical properties, including nitrogen, hydrogen, carbon, cellulose, lignin, chlorophyll (a or b), carotenoid, polar and nonpolar extractives, leaf mass per area, and equivalent water thickness. We also compared BMA with partial least squares (PLS) and stepwise multiple regression (SMR). Results showed that all the biochemicals except carotenoid were accurately estimated from hyerspectral data with R2 values > 0.80.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schöniger, Anneli; Illman, Walter A.; Wöhling, Thomas; Nowak, Wolfgang
2015-12-01
Groundwater modelers face the challenge of how to assign representative parameter values to the studied aquifer. Several approaches are available to parameterize spatial heterogeneity in aquifer parameters. They differ in their conceptualization and complexity, ranging from homogeneous models to heterogeneous random fields. While it is common practice to invest more effort into data collection for models with a finer resolution of heterogeneities, there is a lack of advice which amount of data is required to justify a certain level of model complexity. In this study, we propose to use concepts related to Bayesian model selection to identify this balance. We demonstrate our approach on the characterization of a heterogeneous aquifer via hydraulic tomography in a sandbox experiment (Illman et al., 2010). We consider four increasingly complex parameterizations of hydraulic conductivity: (1) Effective homogeneous medium, (2) geology-based zonation, (3) interpolation by pilot points, and (4) geostatistical random fields. First, we investigate the shift in justified complexity with increasing amount of available data by constructing a model confusion matrix. This matrix indicates the maximum level of complexity that can be justified given a specific experimental setup. Second, we determine which parameterization is most adequate given the observed drawdown data. Third, we test how the different parameterizations perform in a validation setup. The results of our test case indicate that aquifer characterization via hydraulic tomography does not necessarily require (or justify) a geostatistical description. Instead, a zonation-based model might be a more robust choice, but only if the zonation is geologically adequate.
Elucidation of Genetic Interactions in the Yeast GATA-Factor Network Using Bayesian Model Selection
Milias-Argeitis, Andreas; Oliveira, Ana Paula; Gerosa, Luca; Falter, Laura; Sauer, Uwe; Lygeros, John
2016-01-01
Understanding the structure and function of complex gene regulatory networks using classical genetic assays is an error-prone procedure that frequently generates ambiguous outcomes. Even some of the best-characterized gene networks contain interactions whose validity is not conclusively proven. Founded on dynamic experimental data, mechanistic mathematical models are able to offer detailed insights that would otherwise require prohibitively large numbers of genetic experiments. Here we attempt mechanistic modeling of the transcriptional network formed by the four GATA-factor proteins, a well-studied system of central importance for nitrogen-source regulation of transcription in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. To resolve ambiguities in the network organization, we encoded a set of five interactions hypothesized in the literature into a set of 32 mathematical models, and employed Bayesian model selection to identify the most plausible set of interactions based on dynamic gene expression data. The top-ranking model was validated on newly generated GFP reporter dynamic data and was subsequently used to gain a better understanding of how yeast cells organize their transcriptional response to dynamic changes of nitrogen sources. Our work constitutes a necessary and important step towards obtaining a holistic view of the yeast nitrogen regulation mechanisms; on the computational side, it provides a demonstration of how powerful Monte Carlo techniques can be creatively combined and used to address the great challenges of large-scale dynamical system inference. PMID:26967983
The Final SDSS High-redshift Quasar Sample of 52 Quasars at z>5.7
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jiang, Linhua; McGreer, Ian D.; Fan, Xiaohui; Strauss, Michael A.; Bañados, Eduardo; Becker, Robert H.; Bian, Fuyan; Farnsworth, Kara; Shen, Yue; Wang, Feige; Wang, Ran; Wang, Shu; White, Richard L.; Wu, Jin; Wu, Xue-Bing; Yang, Jinyi; Yang, Qian
2016-12-01
We present the discovery of nine quasars at z∼ 6 identified in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) imaging data. This completes our survey of z∼ 6 quasars in the SDSS footprint. Our final sample consists of 52 quasars at 5.7\\lt z≤slant 6.4, including 29 quasars with {z}{AB}≤slant 20 mag selected from 11,240 deg2 of the SDSS single-epoch imaging survey (the main survey), 10 quasars with 20≤slant {z}{AB}≤slant 20.5 selected from 4223 deg2 of the SDSS overlap regions (regions with two or more imaging scans), and 13 quasars down to {z}{AB}≈ 22 mag from the 277 deg2 in Stripe 82. They span a wide luminosity range of -29.0≤slant {M}1450≤slant -24.5. This well-defined sample is used to derive the quasar luminosity function (QLF) at z∼ 6. After combining our SDSS sample with two faint ({M}1450≥slant -23 mag) quasars from the literature, we obtain the parameters for a double power-law fit to the QLF. The bright-end slope β of the QLF is well constrained to be β =-2.8+/- 0.2. Due to the small number of low-luminosity quasars, the faint-end slope α and the characteristic magnitude {M}1450* are less well constrained, with α =-{1.90}-0.44+0.58 and {M}* =-{25.2}-3.8+1.2 mag. The spatial density of luminous quasars, parametrized as ρ ({M}1450\\lt -26,z)=ρ (z=6){10}k(z-6), drops rapidly from z∼ 5 to 6, with k=-0.72+/- 0.11. Based on our fitted QLF and assuming an intergalactic medium (IGM) clumping factor of C = 3, we find that the observed quasar population cannot provide enough photons to ionize the z∼ 6 IGM at ∼90% confidence. Quasars may still provide a significant fraction of the required photons, although much larger samples of faint quasars are needed for more stringent constraints on the quasar contribution to reionization.
What BOSS has taught us about Quasars.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ross, Nicholas; SDSS-III BOSS Quasar Science Working Group
2015-01-01
This talk presents science highlights from the SDSS-III BOSS Quasar Survey, which has obtained spectra for over 300,000 quasars, 200,000 of which are at redshift z>2. Using this dataset, new measurements of the luminosity function have been made, with the faint end of the luminosity function now measured to z~5. New clustering results from DR12 are presented, and the weak luminosity dependence of quasar clustering at z~0.5 is also discussed.New studies of the broad absorption line (BAL) quasar population have also been performed, with a sample of BAL quasars from the original SDSS being re-observed. These new data have shown the disappearance of CIV BAL troughs and indeed the transformation of BAL QSOs to non-BAL QSOs. BAL disappearance, and emergence, events appear to be extremes of general BAL variability, and have shed light on accretion-disk wind models.We highlight the discovery of new classes of quasars including: a population of broad-line Mg II emitters found in a passive galaxy sample; objects with extremely red optical-to-mid infrared colors; objects with very curious UV line (LyA:NV) ratios and potentially the long-sought after high-redshift Type 2 Quasar population.Finally, we describe two new dedicated programs, one focusing on reverberation mapping, the other on X-ray selected quasars.A full list of papers connected to the BOSS Quasar Survey is given at: http://www.sdss3.org/science/publications.php
Twinkle, Twinkle, Little Star, or Are You a Quasar?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brooks, Keira; MacLeod, C.; Ivezic, Z.; Kozlowski, S.; Kochanek, C. S.; Gibson, R.; Sesar, B.; Becker, A.; de Vries, W.
2010-01-01
We present a method for selecting quasars from other variable point sources using hypothesis testing, and apply it to SDSS Stripe 82 data for 52,000 variable objects. To describe quasar variability, we use a damped random walk model, as utilized in Kozlowski et al. (2009) to select quasars in very dense stellar environments. With the aid of a SDSS spectroscopically confirmed quasar sample, we demonstrate that variability selection in typical extragalactic fields with low stellar density can deliver samples with high completeness and low contamination rates. Variability selection and methods such as developed here will play an important role in the selection of quasars with data provided by upcoming large sky surveys such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), particularly since our approach provides a complete statistical model of the selection process for any quantitative use of the sample.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kelly, Brandon C.; Vestergaard, M.; Fan, X.; Hopkins, P.; Hernquist, L.; Siemiginowska, A.
2010-01-01
I will present the black hole mass function (BHMF) of broad line quasars in the SDSS DR3. We employ a powerful Bayesian statistical technique that corrects for incompleteness and the statistical uncertainty in the mass estimates. We find evidence that the most massive black hole appeared as quasars earlier in the universe, and that most quasars are not radiating at or near the Eddington limit. I will also present constraints on the quasar lifetime and maximum black hole mass, derived from the mass functions.
Bayesian variable selection for post-analytic interrogation of susceptibility loci.
Chen, Siying; Nunez, Sara; Reilly, Muredach P; Foulkes, Andrea S
2017-06-01
Understanding the complex interplay among protein coding genes and regulatory elements requires rigorous interrogation with analytic tools designed for discerning the relative contributions of overlapping genomic regions. To this aim, we offer a novel application of Bayesian variable selection (BVS) for classifying genomic class level associations using existing large meta-analysis summary level resources. This approach is applied using the expectation maximization variable selection (EMVS) algorithm to typed and imputed SNPs across 502 protein coding genes (PCGs) and 220 long intergenic non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) that overlap 45 known loci for coronary artery disease (CAD) using publicly available Global Lipids Gentics Consortium (GLGC) (Teslovich et al., 2010; Willer et al., 2013) meta-analysis summary statistics for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). The analysis reveals 33 PCGs and three lncRNAs across 11 loci with >50% posterior probabilities for inclusion in an additive model of association. The findings are consistent with previous reports, while providing some new insight into the architecture of LDL-cholesterol to be investigated further. As genomic taxonomies continue to evolve, additional classes such as enhancer elements and splicing regions, can easily be layered into the proposed analysis framework. Moreover, application of this approach to alternative publicly available meta-analysis resources, or more generally as a post-analytic strategy to further interrogate regions that are identified through single point analysis, is straightforward. All coding examples are implemented in R version 3.2.1 and provided as supplemental material. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.
Bayesian Variable Selection in Searching for Additive and Dominant Effects in Genome-Wide Data
Peltola, Tomi; Marttinen, Pekka; Jula, Antti; Salomaa, Veikko; Perola, Markus; Vehtari, Aki
2012-01-01
Although complex diseases and traits are thought to have multifactorial genetic basis, the common methods in genome-wide association analyses test each variant for association independent of the others. This computational simplification may lead to reduced power to identify variants with small effect sizes and requires correcting for multiple hypothesis tests with complex relationships. However, advances in computational methods and increase in computational resources are enabling the computation of models that adhere more closely to the theory of multifactorial inheritance. Here, a Bayesian variable selection and model averaging approach is formulated for searching for additive and dominant genetic effects. The approach considers simultaneously all available variants for inclusion as predictors in a linear genotype-phenotype mapping and averages over the uncertainty in the variable selection. This leads to naturally interpretable summary quantities on the significances of the variants and their contribution to the genetic basis of the studied trait. We first characterize the behavior of the approach in simulations. The results indicate a gain in the causal variant identification performance when additive and dominant variation are simulated, with a negligible loss of power in purely additive case. An application to the analysis of high- and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels in a dataset of 3895 Finns is then presented, demonstrating the feasibility of the approach at the current scale of single-nucleotide polymorphism data. We describe a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the computation and give suggestions on the specification of prior parameters using commonly available prior information. An open-source software implementing the method is available at http://www.lce.hut.fi/research/mm/bmagwa/ and https://github.com/to-mi/. PMID:22235263
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Väliviita, Jussi; Giannantonio, Tommaso
2009-12-01
We present posterior likelihoods and Bayesian model selection analysis for generalized cosmological models where the primordial perturbations include correlated adiabatic and cold dark matter isocurvature components. We perform nested sampling with flat and, for the first time, curved spatial geometries of the Universe, using data from the CMB anisotropies, the Union supernovae (SN) sample, and a combined measurement of the integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect. The CMB alone favors a 3% (positively correlated) isocurvature contribution in both the flat and curved cases. The nonadiabatic contribution to the observed CMB temperature variance is 0<αT<7% at 98% C.L. in the curved case. In the flat case, combining the CMB with SN data artificially biases the result towards the pure adiabatic ΛCDM concordance model, whereas in the curved case the favored level of nonadiabaticity stays at the 3% level with all combinations of data. However, the ratio of Bayes factors, or Δln (evidence), is more than 5 points in favor of the flat adiabatic ΛCDM model, which suggests that the inclusion of the 5 extra parameters of the curved isocurvature model is not supported by the current data. The results are very sensitive to the second and third acoustic peak regions in the CMB temperature angular power: therefore a careful calibration of these data will be required before drawing decisive conclusions on the nature of primordial perturbations. Finally, we point out that the odds for the flat nonadiabatic model are 1:3 compared to the curved adiabatic model. This may suggest that it is not much less motivated to extend the concordance model with 4 isocurvature degrees of freedom than it is to study the spatially curved adiabatic model, though at the moment the model selection disfavors both of these models.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Subrahmanya, Niranjan; Shin, Yung C.; Meckl, Peter H.
2010-01-01
In applications like feature-level sensor fusion, the problem of selecting an optimal number of sensors can lead to reduced maintenance costs and the creation of compact online databases for future use. This problem of sensor selection can be reduced to the problem of selecting an optimal set of groups of features during model selection. This is a more complex problem than the problem of feature selection, which has been recognized as a key aspect of statistical model identification. This work proposes a new algorithm based on the use of a Bayesian framework for the purpose of selecting groups of features during regression and classification. The hierarchical Bayesian formulation introduces grouping for the parameters of a generalized linear model and the model hyper-parameters are estimated using an empirical Bayes procedure. A novel aspect of the algorithm is its ability to simultaneously perform feature selection within groups to reduce over-fitting of the data. Further, the parameters obtained from this algorithm can be used to obtain a rank order among the selected sensors. The performance of the algorithm is first tested on a synthetic regression example. Finally, it is applied to the problem of fault detection in diesel engines (30,000 data records from 43 sensors, 8 classes) and used to compare the misclassification rates with a varying number of sensors.
THE SUBARU HIGH-z QUASAR SURVEY: DISCOVERY OF FAINT z ∼ 6 QUASARS
Kashikawa, Nobunari; Furusawa, Hisanori; Niino, Yuu; Ishizaki, Yoshifumi; Onoue, Masafusa; Toshikawa, Jun; Ishikawa, Shogo; Willott, Chris J.; Im, Myungshin; Shimasaku, Kazuhiro; Ouchi, Masami; Hibon, Pascale
2015-01-01
We present the discovery of one or two extremely faint z ∼ 6 quasars in 6.5 deg{sup 2} utilizing a unique capability of the wide-field imaging of the Subaru/Suprime-Cam. The quasar selection was made in (i'-z{sub B} ) and (z{sub B} -z{sub R} ) colors, where z{sub B} and z{sub R} are bandpasses with central wavelengths of 8842 Å and 9841 Å, respectively. The color selection can effectively isolate quasars at z ∼ 6 from M/L/T dwarfs without the J-band photometry down to z{sub R} < 24.0, which is 3.5 mag deeper than the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). We have selected 17 promising quasar candidates. The follow-up spectroscopy for seven targets identified one apparent quasar at z = 6.156 with M {sub 1450} = –23.10. We also identified one possible quasar at z = 6.041 with a faint continuum of M {sub 1450} = –22.58 and a narrow Lyα emission with HWHM =427 km s{sup –1}, which cannot be distinguished from Lyman α emitters. We derive the quasar luminosity function at z ∼ 6 by combining our faint quasar sample with the bright quasar samples by SDSS and CFHQS. Including our data points invokes a higher number density in the faintest bin of the quasar luminosity function than the previous estimate employed. This suggests a steeper faint-end slope than lower z, though it is yet uncertain based on a small number of spectroscopically identified faint quasars, and several quasar candidates still remain to be diagnosed. The steepening of the quasar luminosity function at the faint end does increase the expected emission rate of the ionizing photon; however, it only changes by a factor of approximately two to six. This was found to still be insufficient for the required photon budget of reionization at z ∼ 6.
Atlas of quasar energy distributions
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Elvis, Martin; Wilkes, Belinda J.; Mcdowell, Jonathan C.; Green, Richard F.; Bechtold, Jill; Willner, S. P.; Oey, M. S.; Polomski, Elisha; Cutri, Roc
1994-01-01
We present an atlas of the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of normal, nonblazar, quasars over the whole available range (radio to 10 keV X-rays) of the electromagnetic spectrum. The primary (UVSX) sample includes 47 quasars for which the spectral energy distributions include X-ray spectral indices and UV data. Of these, 29 are radio quiet, and 18 are radio loud. The SEDs are presented both in figures and in tabular form, with additional tabular material published on CD-ROM. Previously unpublished observational data for a second set of quasars excluded from the primary sample are also tabulated. The effects of host galaxy starlight contamination and foreground extinction on the UVSX sample are considered and the sample is used to investigate the range of SED properties. Of course, the properties we derive are influenced strongly by the selection effects induced by quasar discovery techniques. We derive the mean energy distribution (MED) for radio-loud and radio-quiet objects and present the bolometric corrections derived from it. We note, however, that the dispersion about this mean is large (approximately one decade for both the infrared and ultraviolet components when the MED is normalized at the near-infrared inflection). At least part of the dispersion in the ultraviolet may be due to time variability, but this is unlikely to be important in the infrared. The existence of such a large dispersion indicates that the MED reflects only some of the properties of quasars and so should be used only with caution.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wentworth, Mami Tonoe
Uncertainty quantification plays an important role when making predictive estimates of model responses. In this context, uncertainty quantification is defined as quantifying and reducing uncertainties, and the objective is to quantify uncertainties in parameter, model and measurements, and propagate the uncertainties through the model, so that one can make a predictive estimate with quantified uncertainties. Two of the aspects of uncertainty quantification that must be performed prior to propagating uncertainties are model calibration and parameter selection. There are several efficient techniques for these processes; however, the accuracy of these methods are often not verified. This is the motivation for our work, and in this dissertation, we present and illustrate verification frameworks for model calibration and parameter selection in the context of biological and physical models. First, HIV models, developed and improved by [2, 3, 8], describe the viral infection dynamics of an HIV disease. These are also used to make predictive estimates of viral loads and T-cell counts and to construct an optimal control for drug therapy. Estimating input parameters is an essential step prior to uncertainty quantification. However, not all the parameters are identifiable, implying that they cannot be uniquely determined by the observations. These unidentifiable parameters can be partially removed by performing parameter selection, a process in which parameters that have minimal impacts on the model response are determined. We provide verification techniques for Bayesian model calibration and parameter selection for an HIV model. As an example of a physical model, we employ a heat model with experimental measurements presented in [10]. A steady-state heat model represents a prototypical behavior for heat conduction and diffusion process involved in a thermal-hydraulic model, which is a part of nuclear reactor models. We employ this simple heat model to illustrate verification
ACCRETION RATES OF RED QUASARS FROM THE HYDROGEN Pβ LINE
Kim, Dohyeong; Im, Myungshin; Glikman, Eilat; Woo, Jong-Hak; Urrutia, Tanya E-mail: mim@astro.snu.ac.kr
2015-10-10
Red quasars are thought to be an intermediate population between merger-driven star-forming galaxies in dust-enshrouded phase and normal quasars. If so, they are expected to have high accretion ratios, but their intrinsic dust extinction hampers reliable determination of Eddington ratios. Here, we compare the accretion rates of 16 red quasars at z ∼ 0.7 to those of normal type 1 quasars at the same redshift range. The red quasars are selected by their red colors in optical through near-infrared (NIR) and radio detection. The accretion rates of the red quasars are derived from the Pβ line in NIR spectra, which is obtained by the SpeX on the Infrared Telescope Facility in order to avoid the effects of dust extinction. We find that the measured Eddington ratios (L{sub bol}/L{sub Edd} ≃ 0.69) of red quasars are significantly higher than those of normal type 1 quasars, which is consistent with a scenario in which red quasars are the intermediate population and the black holes of red quasars grow very rapidly during such a stage.
An astrophysics data program investigation of a synoptic study of quasar continua
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Elvis, Martin
1991-01-01
A summary of the program is presented. The major product of the program, an atlas of quasar energy distributions, is presented in the appendices along with papers written as a result of this research. The topics covered in the papers include: (1) accurate galactic N(sub h) values toward quasars and active galactic nuclei (AGN); (2) weak bump quasars; (3) millimeter measurements of hard x ray selected active galaxies- implications for the nature of the continuous spectrum; (3) persistence and change in the soft x ray spectrum of the quasar PG1211+143; (4) the soft x ray excess in einstein quasar spectra; and (5) EXOSAT x ray spectra of quasars.
Surveys of Luminous Quasars in the Post-reionization Universe at z=5-6
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Jinyi; Wu, Xue-Bing; Fan, Xiaohui; Wang, Feige; McGreer, Ian D.; Bian, Fuyan; Green, Richard F.; Yang, Qian; Jiang, Linhua; Wang, Ran; Yi, Weimin; UHS Team
2017-01-01
Quasars at z ~ 5 to 6, the post-reionization epoch, are crucial tools to explore the evolution of intergalactic medium (IGM), quasar evolution and the early super-massive black hole growth. The quasar luminosity function (QLF) and its evolution at z >~ 5 is also needed to estimate the contribution of quasars to the ionizing background during and after the reionization epoch. McGreer et al. (2013) provided the first complete measurement of the z ~ 5 QLF. However, their work focused on faint quasars over a small sky area; there were only 8 quasars with M1450 < -27.3. We have carried out a new quasar survey of luminous quasars at 4.7 < z < 5.4 over 14555 deg^2 with high completeness, selected using a combination of SDSS and WISE optical/NIR colors . Using this luminous z ~ 5 quasar sample, we present a new determination of the z ~ 5 QLF and discuss the evolution model of QLF at high redshift. Based on surveys of luminous quasars at z > 4, previous studies have concluded that the number density evolution steepens at high redshift, such that luminous quasars decline as a population more steeply at higher redshift (z ~ 5.5) than from z=4 to 5. However, quasars at redshifts 5.3 < z < 5.7 have been very challenging to select using conventional color selections, due to their similar optical colors to late-type stars, especially M dwarfs, resulting in a glaring redshift gap in quasar redshift distribution. We have developed a new selection technique for z ~ 5.5 quasars based on optical, near- and mid-infrared photometric data. Up to date, we have constructed an uniform luminous z ~ 5.5 quasar sample with 26 new quasars. Our final completed sample of quasars at z=5-6 will be used to study QLF, evolution model and IGM evolution in the post-deionization universe.
Bayesian model selection for testing the no-hair theorem with black hole ringdowns
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gossan, S.; Veitch, J.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.
2012-06-01
In this paper we examine the extent to which black hole quasinormal modes (QNMs) could be used to test the no-hair theorem with future ground- and space-based gravitational-wave detectors. We model departures from general relativity (GR) by introducing extra parameters which change the mode frequencies or decay times from their values in GR. With the aid of Bayesian model selection, we assess the extent to which the presence of such a parameter could be inferred, and its value estimated. We find that it is harder to measure the departure of the mode decay times from their GR values than it is with the mode frequencies. The Einstein Telescope (ET, a third generation ground-based detector) could detect departures of as little as 8% in the frequency of the dominant QNM mode of a 500M⊙ black hole, out to a maximum range of ≃6Gpc (z≃0.91). The New Gravitational Observatory (NGO, an ESA space mission to detect gravitational waves) can detect departures of ˜0.6% in a 108M⊙ black hole to a luminosity distance of 50 Gpc (z≃5.1), and departures of ˜10% in a 106M⊙ black hole to a luminosity distance of ≃6Gpc. In this exploratory work we have made a specific choice of source position (overhead), orientation (inclination angle of π/3) and mass ratio of progenitor binary (m1/m2=2). A more exhaustive Monte Carlo simulation that incorporates progenitor black hole spins and a hierarchical model for the growth of massive black holes is needed to evaluate a more realistic picture of the possibility of ET and NGO to carry out such tests.
Bayesian phylogenetic model selection using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo.
Huelsenbeck, John P; Larget, Bret; Alfaro, Michael E
2004-06-01
A common problem in molecular phylogenetics is choosing a model of DNA substitution that does a good job of explaining the DNA sequence alignment without introducing superfluous parameters. A number of methods have been used to choose among a small set of candidate substitution models, such as the likelihood ratio test, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and Bayes factors. Current implementations of any of these criteria suffer from the limitation that only a small set of models are examined, or that the test does not allow easy comparison of non-nested models. In this article, we expand the pool of candidate substitution models to include all possible time-reversible models. This set includes seven models that have already been described. We show how Bayes factors can be calculated for these models using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo, and apply the method to 16 DNA sequence alignments. For each data set, we compare the model with the best Bayes factor to the best models chosen using AIC and BIC. We find that the best model under any of these criteria is not necessarily the most complicated one; models with an intermediate number of substitution types typically do best. Moreover, almost all of the models that are chosen as best do not constrain a transition rate to be the same as a transversion rate, suggesting that it is the transition/transversion rate bias that plays the largest role in determining which models are selected. Importantly, the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm described here allows estimation of phylogeny (and other phylogenetic model parameters) to be performed while accounting for uncertainty in the model of DNA substitution.
New Discoveries Fill the Quasar Gap
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kohler, Susanna
2017-04-01
Quasars active and luminous galactic centers can be difficult to find at some high redshifts due to their camouflaging color. A team of scientists has now come up with a way to detect these distant monsters in spite of their disguise.Quasar CamouflageThe color track of quasars between 5 z 6 in the commonly used i z and r i bands. Each dot on the red line marks a 0.1 difference in redshift. The contours show the colors of M dwarfs, from early type to late type. Quasars at a redshift of 5.3 z 5.7 are clearly contaminated by M dwarfs, making them difficult to identify. [Adapted from Yang et al. 2017]One of the key ways we can study the early universe is by building a large sample of high-redshift quasars. In particular, we believe that reionization of the universe is just completing around z 6. Quasars near this redshift are crucial tools for probing the post-reionization epoch and exploring the evolution of the intergalactic medium, quasar evolution, and early supermassive black hole growth.But quasars at this redshift are difficult to detect! The problem is contamination: quasars at this distance are the same color in commonly used optical bands as cool M-dwarf stars. As a result, surveys searching for quasars have often just cut out that entire section of the color space in order to avoid this contamination.This means that theres a huge gap in our sample of quasars around z 5.5: of the more than 300,000 quasars known, only 30 have been found in the redshift range of 5.3 z 5.7.The addition of new colorcolor selection criteria using infrared bands (bottom two plots) allows the authors to differentiate quasars (blue) from M dwarfs (grey), which isnt possible when only the traditional optical colorcolor selection criteria are used (top plot). [Adapted from Yang et al. 2017]A New ApproachIn a recent publication led by Jinyi Yang (Peking University, China and Steward Observatory, University of Arizona), a team of scientists has demonstrated a new technique for finding
Swartz, Michael D; Thomas, Duncan C; Daw, E Warwick; Albers, Kees; Charlesworth, Jac C; Dyer, Thomas C; Fridley, Brooke L; Govil, Manika; Kraft, Peter; Kwon, Soonil; Logue, Mark W; Oh, Cheongeun; Pique-Regi, Roger; Saba, Laura; Schumacher, Fredrick R; Uh, Hae-Won
2007-01-01
The research presented in group 11 of the Genetic Analysis Workshop 15 (GAW15) falls into two major themes: Model selection approaches for gene mapping (both Bayesian and Frequentist); and other Bayesian methods. These methods either allow relaxation of some of the common assumptions, such as mode of inheritance, for studying complicated genetic systems, or allow incorporation of additional information into the model. Over half of the groups applied model selection methods on all three data sets, using models in which genetic markers were used as predictors for linkage, phenotype expression, or transmission to an affected offspring. Most groups employed variations of Stochastic Search Variable Selection as the model selection method of choice. A brief review of this class of methods is given in this summary paper, followed by highlights of other methods and overall summaries of each contribution to the GAW15 presentation group 11. These group contributions exhibit the value of framing genetic problems in terms of model selection, and highlight the impact of variable selection for gene mapping. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
Dust-reddened Quasars In First And Ukidss
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Glikman, Eilat; Lacy, M.; Urrutia, T.
2012-05-01
We recently identified a large population of dust-reddened quasars by matching radio sources detected in the FIRST survey to the 2MASS near-infrared catalog (F2M) and selecting sources with red topical-to-near-infrared colors. We find that dust-reddened quasars are intrinsically the most luminous quasars in the Universe. Further analysis suggests that red quasars represent an emergent phase in merger-driven quasar/galaxy co-evolution model where the obscured quasar is shedding its dusty shroud prior to becoming a "normal" quasar. Here we use the UKIDSS Large Area Survey (LAS) First Data Release (DR1; 190 deg2) to reach fainter K-band magnitudes and expand beyond the results of the F2M survey. The deeper K-band limit provided by UKIDSS enables the discovery of more heavily reddened quasars at higher redshifts. We selected 95 candidates in the UKIDSS DR1 that had matches in the FIRST catalog with K<17.0 and obeyed color criteria similar to the F2M survey (R-K>5, J-K > 1.5). We have obtained 54 near-infrared spectra as well as 12 optical spectra from SDSS. Preliminary analysis confirm 12 new obscured quasars, including at least two with z>2 reaching lower intrinsic luminosities than were found by the F2M survey. We find that despite being a luminous quasar phenomenon, the space density of red quasars continues to rise to fainter magnitudes, representing 20% of the overall quasar population.
Double Lobed Radio Quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey
de Vries, W H; Becker, R H; White, R L
2005-11-10
We have combined a sample of 44 984 quasars, selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 3, with the FIRST radio survey. Using a novel technique where the optical quasar position is matched to the complete radio environment within 450'', we are able to characterize the radio morphological make-up of what is essentially an optically selected quasar sample, regardless of whether the quasar (nucleus) itself has been detected in the radio. About 10% of the quasar population have radio cores brighter than 0.75 mJy at 1.4 GHz, and 1.7% have double lobed FR2-like radio morphologies. About 75% of the FR2 sources have a radio core (> 0.75mJy). A significant fraction ({approx}40%) of the FR2 quasars are bent by more than 10 degrees, indicating either interactions of the radio plasma with the ICM or IGM. We found no evidence for correlations with redshift among our FR2 quasars: radio lobe flux densities and radio source diameters of the quasars have similar distributions at low (mean 0.77) and high (mean 2.09) redshifts. Using a smaller high reliability FR2 sample of 422 quasars and two comparison samples of radio-quiet and non-FR2 radio-loud quasars, matched in their redshift distributions, we constructed composite optical spectra from the SDSS spectroscopic data. Based on these spectra we can conclude that the FR2 quasars have stronger high-ionization emission lines compared to both the radio quiet and non-FR2 radio loud sources. This is consistent with the notion that the emission lines are brightened by ongoing shock ionization of ambient gas in the quasar host as the radio source expands.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Green, Paul J.; MacLeod, Chelsea; Anderson, Scott F.; Eracleous, Michael; Ruan, John J.; Runnoe, Jessie C.; Graham, Matthew J.
2017-01-01
Accretion onto black holes (BH) illuminates fascinating physics from the stellar mass BHs in Galactic X-ray binaries (XRBs) to the supermassive black holes (SMBH) in Seyferts and quasars. Alas, BH accretion regions are too compact to be spatially resolved. Temporal changes in XRB spectral states have gone a long way to unravel the accretion physics in XRBs, and suggest powerful theoretical and observational analogies to quasars. However, simple mass scaling to SMBHs suggests impractically long timescales (millenia) for accretion state transitions in quasars. However, large spectral state changes in quasars have now been detected that both inform and invigorate debates about accretion theory and the nature of historical quasar classes (e.g., Type 1 vs Type 2). In the last couple of years, a dozen luminous "changing-look quasars" (CLQs) were discovered to exhibit strong, persistent changes in luminosity, accompanied by the dramatic emergence or disappearance of broad emission-line (BEL) components. The availability of repeat spectroscopy for large samples of quasars provided by Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and its ongoing Time Domain Spectroscopic Survey (TDSS) now extend this rare and remarkable phenomenon to regimes of luminosity and redshift that overlap the huge cosmological samples of quasars in the SDSS. We review the current understanding of these events, and upcoming possibilities for their detection, characterization and modeling.
Survey For Very High-Redshift Quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lemley, S.; MacAlpine, G.
1997-12-01
I will present the results from the deep, three color survey for very high redshift quasars. The survey involved direct imaging through Gunn gri filters using a 2048 x 2048 STIS ccd chip and Cerro Tololo's Curtis Scmidt Telescope. Quasar candidates in the range 4.0 < z < 5.4 were selected based on the detection of the Lyman alpha line and the strong drop in the spectrum blueward of this. Because of this response, quasars are clearly located away from the stellar locus on g - r vs. r - i diagrams. Quasar candidates in this redshift range have large values of g - r and small values of r - i. To confirm the candidates as quasars, the multi-fiber spectroscope Hydra, located on the WIYN telescope, was used. To date, spectral confirmation has been completed for ten degrees out of the approximately fifteen square degress of survey area. Several quasars were discovered, and I will present their spectra and information on the viability of this technique.
The WISSH quasars project. II. Giant star nurseries in hyper-luminous quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Duras, F.; Bongiorno, A.; Piconcelli, E.; Bianchi, S.; Pappalardo, C.; Valiante, R.; Bischetti, M.; Feruglio, C.; Martocchia, S.; Schneider, R.; Vietri, G.; Vignali, C.; Zappacosta, L.; La Franca, F.; Fiore, F.
2017-08-01
Context. Studying the coupling between the energy output produced by the central quasar and the host galaxy is fundamental to fully understand galaxy evolution. Quasar feedback is indeed supposed to dramatically affect the galaxy properties by depositing large amounts of energy and momentum into the interstellar medium (ISM). Aims: In order to gain further insights on this process, we study the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of sources at the brightest end of the quasar luminosity function, for which the feedback mechanism is assumed to be at its maximum, given their high efficiency in driving powerful outflows. Methods: We modelled the rest-frame UV-to-far-IR SEDs of 16 WISE-SDSS Selected Hyper-luminous (WISSH) quasars at 1.8 < z < 4.6 based on SDSS, 2MASS, WISE and Herschel/SPIRE data. Through an accurate SED-fitting procedure, we separate the different emission components by deriving physical parameters of both the nuclear component (i.e. bolometric and monochromatic luminosities) and the host galaxy (i.e. star formation rate, mass, and temperature of the cold dust). We also use a radiative transfer code to account for the contribution of the quasar-related emission to the far-IR fluxes. Results: Most SEDs are well described by a standard combination of accretion disc plus torus and cold dust emission. However, about 30% of SEDs require an additional emission component in the near-IR, with temperatures peaking at 750 K, which indicates that a hotter dust component is present in these powerful quasars. We measure extreme values of both AGN bolometric luminosity (LBOL > 1047 erg/s) and star formation rate (up to 2000 M⊙/yr) based on the quasar-corrected, IR luminosity of the host galaxy. A new relation between quasar and star formation luminosity is derived (LSF ∝ L0.73QSO) by combining several Herschel-detected quasar samples from z 0 to 4. WISSH quasars have masses ( 108M⊙) and temperatures ( 50 K) of cold dust in agreement with those found for other
Furtado-Junior, I; Abrunhosa, F A; Holanda, F C A F; Tavares, M C S
2016-06-01
Fishing selectivity of the mangrove crab Ucides cordatus in the north coast of Brazil can be defined as the fisherman's ability to capture and select individuals from a certain size or sex (or a combination of these factors) which suggests an empirical selectivity. Considering this hypothesis, we calculated the selectivity curves for males and females crabs using the logit function of the logistic model in the formulation. The Bayesian inference consisted of obtaining the posterior distribution by applying the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to software R using the OpenBUGS, BRugs, and R2WinBUGS libraries. The estimated results of width average carapace selection for males and females compared with previous studies reporting the average width of the carapace of sexual maturity allow us to confirm the hypothesis that most mature individuals do not suffer from fishing pressure; thus, ensuring their sustainability.
The large bright quasar survey. 6: Quasar catalog and survey parameters
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hewett, Paul C.; Foltz, Craig B.; Chaffee, Frederic H.
1995-04-01
Positions, redshifts, and magnitudes for the 1055 quasars in the Large Bright Quasar Survey (LBQS) are presented in a single catalog. Celestial positions have been derived using the PPM catalog to provide an improved reference frame. J2000.0 coordinates are given together with improved b1950.0 positions. Redshifts calculated via cross correlation with a high signal-to-noise ratio composite quasar spectrum are included and the small number of typographic and redshift misidentifications in the discovery papers are corrected. Spectra of the 12 quasars added to the sample since the publication of the discovery papers are included. Discriptions of the plate material, magnitude calibration, quasar candidate selection procedures, and the identification spectroscopy are given. Calculation of the effective area of the survey for the 1055 quasars comprising the well-defined LBQS sample specified in detail. Number-redshift and number-magnitude relations for the quasars are derived and the strengths and limitastions of the LBSQ sample summarized. Comparison with existing surveys is made and a qualitative assessment of the effectiveness of the LBQS undertaken. Positions, magnitudes, and optical spectra of the eight objects (less than 1%) in the survey that remain unidentified are also presented.
A CONSTRAINT ON QUASAR CLUSTERING AT z = 5 FROM A BINARY QUASAR
McGreer, Ian D.; Fan, Xiaohui; Eftekharzadeh, Sarah; Myers, Adam D.
2016-03-15
We report the discovery of a quasar pair at z = 5 separated by 21″. Both objects were identified as quasar candidates using simple color selection techniques applied to photometric catalogs from the Canada–France–Hawaii Telescope (CFHT) Legacy Survey (CFHTLS). Spectra obtained with the MMT present no discernible offset in redshift between the two objects; on the other hand, there are clear differences in the emission line profiles and in the multiwavelength spectral energy distributions that strongly disfavor the hypothesis that they are gravitationally lensed images of a single quasar. Both quasars are surprisingly bright given their proximity (a projected separation of ∼135 kpc), with i = 19.4 and i = 21.4. Previous measurements of the luminosity function demonstrate that luminous quasars are extremely rare at z = 5; the existence of this pair suggests that quasars have strong small-scale clustering at high redshift. Assuming a real-space correlation function of the form ξ(r) ∝ (r/r{sub 0}){sup −2}, this discovery implies a correlation length of r{sub 0} ≳ 20h{sup −1} Mpc, consistent with a rapid strengthening of quasar clustering at high redshift as seen in previous observations and predicted by theoretical models where feedback effects are inefficient at shutting down black hole growth at high redshift.
A Constraint on Quasar Clustering at z = 5 from a Binary Quasar
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McGreer, Ian D.; Eftekharzadeh, Sarah; Myers, Adam D.; Fan, Xiaohui
2016-03-01
We report the discovery of a quasar pair at z = 5 separated by 21″. Both objects were identified as quasar candidates using simple color selection techniques applied to photometric catalogs from the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT) Legacy Survey (CFHTLS). Spectra obtained with the MMT present no discernible offset in redshift between the two objects; on the other hand, there are clear differences in the emission line profiles and in the multiwavelength spectral energy distributions that strongly disfavor the hypothesis that they are gravitationally lensed images of a single quasar. Both quasars are surprisingly bright given their proximity (a projected separation of ˜135 kpc), with i = 19.4 and i = 21.4. Previous measurements of the luminosity function demonstrate that luminous quasars are extremely rare at z = 5 the existence of this pair suggests that quasars have strong small-scale clustering at high redshift. Assuming a real-space correlation function of the form ξ(r) ∝ (r/r0)-2, this discovery implies a correlation length of r0 ≳ 20h-1 Mpc, consistent with a rapid strengthening of quasar clustering at high redshift as seen in previous observations and predicted by theoretical models where feedback effects are inefficient at shutting down black hole growth at high redshift. Observations reported here were obtained at the MMT Observatory, a joint facility of the Smithsonian Institution and the University of Arizona.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Khorunzhev, G. A.; Burenin, R. A.; Meshcheryakov, A. V.; Sazonov, S. Yu.
2016-05-01
We have compiled a catalog of 903 candidates for type 1 quasars at redshifts 3 < z < 5.5 selected among the X-ray sources of the "serendipitous" XMM-Newton survey presented in the 3XMMDR4 catalog (the median X-ray flux is ≈5 × 10-15 erg s-1 cm-2 in the 0.5-2 keV energy band) and located at high Galactic latitudes | b| > 20° in Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) fields with a total area of about 300 deg2. Photometric SDSS data as well infrared 2MASS and WISE data were used to select the objects. We selected the point sources from the photometric SDSS catalog with a magnitude error δ mz' < 0.2 and a color i' - z' < 0.6 (to first eliminate the M-type stars). For the selected sources, we have calculated the dependences χ2( z) for various spectral templates from the library that we compiled for these purposes using the EAZY software. Based on these data, we have rejected the objects whose spectral energy distributions are better described by the templates of stars at z = 0 and obtained a sample of quasars with photometric redshift estimates 2.75 < z phot < 5.5. The selection completeness of known quasars at z spec > 3 in the investigated fields is shown to be about 80%. The normalized median absolute deviation (Δ z = | z spec - z phot|) is σ Δ z /(1+ z spec) = 0.07, while the outlier fraction is η = 9% when Δ z/(1 + z cпek.) > 0.2. The number of objects per unit area in our sample exceeds the number of quasars in the spectroscopic SDSS sample at the same redshifts approximately by a factor of 1.5. The subsequent spectroscopic testing of the redshifts of our selected candidates for quasars at 3 < z < 5.5 will allow the purity of this sample to be estimated more accurately.
Nowakowska, Marzena
2017-04-01
The development of the Bayesian logistic regression model classifying the road accident severity is discussed. The already exploited informative priors (method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation, and two-stage Bayesian updating), along with the original idea of a Boot prior proposal, are investigated when no expert opinion has been available. In addition, two possible approaches to updating the priors, in the form of unbalanced and balanced training data sets, are presented. The obtained logistic Bayesian models are assessed on the basis of a deviance information criterion (DIC), highest probability density (HPD) intervals, and coefficients of variation estimated for the model parameters. The verification of the model accuracy has been based on sensitivity, specificity and the harmonic mean of sensitivity and specificity, all calculated from a test data set. The models obtained from the balanced training data set have a better classification quality than the ones obtained from the unbalanced training data set. The two-stage Bayesian updating prior model and the Boot prior model, both identified with the use of the balanced training data set, outperform the non-informative, method of moments, and maximum likelihood estimation prior models. It is important to note that one should be careful when interpreting the parameters since different priors can lead to different models.
Bayesian model selection for analysis and design of multilayer sound absorbers
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fackler, Cameron Jeff
New methods for the analysis and design of multilayer sound absorbers, utilizing a model-based Bayesian inference approach, are proposed. Additionally, a Bayesian method for calibrating impedance tubes, widely used to measure the acoustic properties of sound absorbing materials, is developed. Impedance tubes provide a convenient way to characterize the normal-incidence acoustic properties of materials. These measurements rely on accurately knowing the positions of microphones sensing the sound field inside the tube; these positions must be determined acoustically since the physical dimensions of the microphones are larger than the required precision. Using a calibration measurement of the empty tube, the method developed here determines the acoustic positions and their uncertainties for the microphones of an impedance tube. Microperforated panel absorbers are an exciting, relatively new type of sound absorber, requiring no traditional fibrous materials. The provided absorption, however, has a narrow frequency bandwidth. To provide a more broadband absorption, multiple microperforated panels may be combined into a multilayer absorber, but this yields a difficult design challenge. Here, the Bayesian framework is used to design such multilayer microperforated panels. This provides a method that automatically determines the minimum number of layers required and the design parameters for each layer of a multilayer arrangement yielding a desired acoustic absorption profile. Traditional porous materials are widely used as sound absorbers. Additionally, other substances such as soils or sediments may be modeled as porous materials. When studying and attempting to predict the acoustic properties of such materials, knowing the physical properties of the material is essential. A Bayesian approach to infer these physical parameters from an acoustic measurement is developed. In addition to determining the values and associated uncertainties of the physical material parameters
The search for and investigation of large quasar groups
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Komberg, B. V.; Kravtsov, A. V.; Lukash, V. N.
1996-10-01
Recently, it was suggested that large concentrations or groups of quasars may trace sites of enhanced matter density at medium and high redshifts, analogous to the way in which galaxy clusters trace them in nearby space. We checked existing quasar data for the presence of such groups. Large quasar groups (LQGs) were identified using a well-known cluster analysis technique and the following selection criteria: (i) an LQG must contain at least 10 quasars; (ii) the number density of quasars in a group must exceed that of the background by at least a factor of 2; (iii) the majority of quasars in a group must have reliable redshifts. Our final list contains 12 such groups, including one reported previously. It was found that most of the quasars in these groups come from deep homogeneous surveys. Further analysis of the spatial distribution of quasars in these surveys shows that: (i) the probability that the detected groups are random is rather small (generally a few per cent); (ii) their sizes range from ~70 to ~160 h^-1 Mpc, which is comparable to the sizes of nearby rich superclusters; (iii) the detected groups all have redshifts 0.5
THE z = 5 QUASAR LUMINOSITY FUNCTION FROM SDSS STRIPE 82
McGreer, Ian D.; Fan Xiaohui; Jiang Linhua; Richards, Gordon T.; Strauss, Michael A.; Ross, Nicholas P.; White, Martin; Shen Yue; Schneider, Donald P.; Brandt, W. Niel; Myers, Adam D.; DeGraf, Colin; Glikman, Eilat; Ge Jian; Streblyanska, Alina
2013-05-10
We present a measurement of the Type I quasar luminosity function at z = 5 using a large sample of spectroscopically confirmed quasars selected from optical imaging data. We measure the bright end (M{sub 1450} < -26) with Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data covering {approx}6000 deg{sup 2}, then extend to lower luminosities (M{sub 1450} < -24) with newly discovered, faint z {approx} 5 quasars selected from 235 deg{sup 2} of deep, coadded imaging in the SDSS Stripe 82 region (the celestial equator in the Southern Galactic Cap). The faint sample includes 14 quasars with spectra obtained as ancillary science targets in the SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey, and 59 quasars observed at the MMT and Magellan telescopes. We construct a well-defined sample of 4.7 < z < 5.1 quasars that is highly complete, with 73 spectroscopic identifications out of 92 candidates. Our color selection method is also highly efficient: of the 73 spectra obtained, 71 are high-redshift quasars. These observations reach below the break in the luminosity function (M{sub 1450}{sup *}{approx}-27). The bright-end slope is steep ({beta} {approx}< -4), with a constraint of {beta} < -3.1 at 95% confidence. The break luminosity appears to evolve strongly at high redshift, providing an explanation for the flattening of the bright-end slope reported previously. We find a factor of {approx}2 greater decrease in the number density of luminous quasars (M{sub 1450} < -26) from z = 5 to z = 6 than from z = 4 to z = 5, suggesting a more rapid decline in quasar activity at high redshift than found in previous surveys. Our model for the quasar luminosity function predicts that quasars generate {approx}30% of the ionizing photons required to keep hydrogen in the universe ionized at z = 5.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Goury, Olivier; Amsallem, David; Bordas, Stéphane Pierre Alain; Liu, Wing Kam; Kerfriden, Pierre
2016-08-01
In this paper, we present new reliable model order reduction strategies for computational micromechanics. The difficulties rely mainly upon the high dimensionality of the parameter space represented by any load path applied onto the representative volume element. We take special care of the challenge of selecting an exhaustive snapshot set. This is treated by first using a random sampling of energy dissipating load paths and then in a more advanced way using Bayesian optimization associated with an interlocked division of the parameter space. Results show that we can insure the selection of an exhaustive snapshot set from which a reliable reduced-order model can be built.
Davies, Andrew J; Hope, Max J
2015-07-15
Contingency plans are essential in guiding the response to marine oil spills. However, they are written before the pollution event occurs so must contain some degree of assumption and prediction and hence may be unsuitable for a real incident when it occurs. The use of Bayesian networks in ecology, environmental management, oil spill contingency planning and post-incident analysis is reviewed and analysed to establish their suitability for use as real-time environmental decision support systems during an oil spill response. It is demonstrated that Bayesian networks are appropriate for facilitating the re-assessment and re-validation of contingency plans following pollutant release, thus helping ensure that the optimum response strategy is adopted. This can minimise the possibility of sub-optimal response strategies causing additional environmental and socioeconomic damage beyond the original pollution event. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The multicategory case of the sequential Bayesian pixel selection and estimation procedure
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Pore, M. D.; Dennis, T. B. (Principal Investigator)
1980-01-01
A Bayesian technique for stratified proportion estimation and a sampling based on minimizing the mean squared error of this estimator were developed and tested on LANDSAT multispectral scanner data using the beta density function to model the prior distribution in the two-class case. An extention of this procedure to the k-class case is considered. A generalization of the beta function is shown to be a density function for the general case which allows the procedure to be extended.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bañados, E.; Venemans, B. P.; Decarli, R.; Farina, E. P.; Mazzucchelli, C.; Walter, F.; Fan, X.; Stern, D.; Schlafly, E.; Chambers, K. C.; Rix, H.-W.; Jiang, L.; McGreer, I.; Simcoe, R.; Wang, F.; Yang, J.; Morganson, E.; De Rosa, G.; Greiner, J.; Baloković, M.; Burgett, W. S.; Cooper, T.; Draper, P. W.; Flewelling, H.; Hodapp, K. W.; Jun, H. D.; Kaiser, N.; Kudritzki, R.-P.; Magnier, E. A.; Metcalfe, N.; Miller, D.; Schindler, J.-T.; Tonry, J. L.; Wainscoat, R. J.; Waters, C.; Yang, Q.
2016-11-01
Luminous quasars at z\\gt 5.6 can be studied in detail with the current generation of telescopes and provide us with unique information on the first gigayear of the universe. Thus far, these studies have been statistically limited by the number of quasars known at these redshifts. Such quasars are rare, and therefore, wide-field surveys are required to identify them, and multiwavelength data are required to separate them efficiently from their main contaminants, the far more numerous cool dwarfs. In this paper, we update and extend the selection for the z˜ 6 quasars presented in Bañados et al. (2014) using the Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) survey. We present the PS1 distant quasar sample, which currently consists of 124 quasars in the redshift range 5.6≲ z≲ 6.7 that satisfy our selection criteria. Of these quasars, 77 have been discovered with PS1, and 63 of them are newly identified in this paper. We present the composite spectra of the PS1 distant quasar sample. This sample spans a factor of ˜20 in luminosity and shows a variety of emission line properties. The number of quasars at z\\gt 5.6 presented in this work almost doubles the previously known quasars at these redshifts, marking a transition phase from studies of individual sources to statistical studies of the high-redshift quasar population, which was impossible with earlier, smaller samples.
Liepe, Juliane; Kirk, Paul; Filippi, Sarah; Toni, Tina; Barnes, Chris P; Stumpf, Michael P H
2014-02-01
As modeling becomes a more widespread practice in the life sciences and biomedical sciences, researchers need reliable tools to calibrate models against ever more complex and detailed data. Here we present an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework and software environment, ABC-SysBio, which is a Python package that runs on Linux and Mac OS X systems and that enables parameter estimation and model selection in the Bayesian formalism by using sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approaches. We outline the underlying rationale, discuss the computational and practical issues and provide detailed guidance as to how the important tasks of parameter inference and model selection can be performed in practice. Unlike other available packages, ABC-SysBio is highly suited for investigating, in particular, the challenging problem of fitting stochastic models to data. In order to demonstrate the use of ABC-SysBio, in this protocol we postulate the existence of an imaginary reaction network composed of seven interrelated biological reactions (involving a specific mRNA, the protein it encodes and a post-translationally modified version of the protein), a network that is defined by two files containing 'observed' data that we provide as supplementary information. In the first part of the PROCEDURE, ABC-SysBio is used to infer the parameters of this system, whereas in the second part we use ABC-SysBio's relevant functionality to discriminate between two different reaction network models, one of them being the 'true' one. Although computationally expensive, the additional insights gained in the Bayesian formalism more than make up for this cost, especially in complex problems.
Powerful Quasar Outflows at High Redshifts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aljanahi, Sara; Robert Scott Barrows
2017-01-01
Powerful quasar outflows can be driven by radiation pressure or radio jets, and they are capable of effecting the evolution of their host galaxies, particularly at high-redshifts (z~2)) when the quasar density peaks. We present a multi-wavelength analysis of 131 quasar outflows at high-redshifts (0.8
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Elvis, Martin S.
1996-01-01
The report for this period includes three papers: 'Associated Absorption at Low and High Redshift'; 'Strong X-ray Absorption in a Broad Absorption Line Quasar: PHL5200'; and 'ASCA and ROSAT X-ray Spectra of High-Redshift Radio-Loud Quasars'. The first gives examples from both low and high redshift for combining information on absorbing material in active galactic nuclei from both x-ray and the UV. The second presents ASCA observations of the z = 1.98 prototype broad absorption line quasar (BALQSO): PHL 5200, detected with both the solid-state imaging spectrometers and the gas imaging spectometers. The third paper presents results on the x-ray properties of 9 high-redshift radio-loud quasars observed by ASCA and ROSAT, including ASCA observations of S5 0014+81 (z = 3.38) and S5 0836+71 (z = 2.17) and ROSAT observations of PKS 2126-158.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Weedman, Daniel
1988-01-01
Reports on some of the discoveries over the last quarter century regarding quasars including spectra and energy sources, formation and evolution, and cosmological probes. Describes some of the fundamental mysteries that remain. (CW)
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Weedman, Daniel
1988-01-01
Reports on some of the discoveries over the last quarter century regarding quasars including spectra and energy sources, formation and evolution, and cosmological probes. Describes some of the fundamental mysteries that remain. (CW)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brunetti, Carlotta; Linde, Niklas; Vrugt, Jasper A.
2017-04-01
Geophysical data can help to discriminate among multiple competing subsurface hypotheses (conceptual models). Here, we explore the merits of Bayesian model selection in hydrogeophysics using crosshole ground-penetrating radar data from the South Oyster Bacterial Transport Site in Virginia, USA. Implementation of Bayesian model selection requires computation of the marginal likelihood of the measured data, or evidence, for each conceptual model being used. In this paper, we compare three different evidence estimators, including (1) the brute force Monte Carlo method, (2) the Laplace-Metropolis method, and (3) the numerical integration method proposed by Volpi et al. (2016). The three types of subsurface models that we consider differ in their treatment of the porosity distribution and use (a) horizontal layering with fixed layer thicknesses, (b) vertical layering with fixed layer thicknesses and (c) a multi-Gaussian field. Our results demonstrate that all three estimators provide equivalent results in low parameter dimensions, yet in higher dimensions the brute force Monte Carlo method is inefficient. The isotropic multi-Gaussian model is most supported by the travel time data with Bayes factors that are larger than 10100 compared to conceptual models that assume horizontal or vertical layering of the porosity field.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hobson, Michael P.; Jaffe, Andrew H.; Liddle, Andrew R.; Mukherjee, Pia; Parkinson, David
2009-12-01
Preface; Part I. Methods: 1. Foundations and algorithms John Skilling; 2. Simple applications of Bayesian methods D. S. Sivia and Steve Rawlings; 3. Parameter estimation using Monte Carlo sampling Antony Lewis and Sarah Bridle; 4. Model selection and multi-model interference Andrew R. Liddle, Pia Mukherjee and David Parkinson; 5. Bayesian experimental design and model selection forecasting Roberto Trotta, Martin Kunz, Pia Mukherjee and David Parkinson; 6. Signal separation in cosmology M. P. Hobson, M. A. J. Ashdown and V. Stolyarov; Part II. Applications: 7. Bayesian source extraction M. P. Hobson, Graça Rocha and R. Savage; 8. Flux measurement Daniel Mortlock; 9. Gravitational wave astronomy Neil Cornish; 10. Bayesian analysis of cosmic microwave background data Andrew H. Jaffe; 11. Bayesian multilevel modelling of cosmological populations Thomas J. Loredo and Martin A. Hendry; 12. A Bayesian approach to galaxy evolution studies Stefano Andreon; 13. Photometric redshift estimation: methods and applications Ofer Lahav, Filipe B. Abdalla and Manda Banerji; Index.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hobson, Michael P.; Jaffe, Andrew H.; Liddle, Andrew R.; Mukherjee, Pia; Parkinson, David
2014-02-01
Preface; Part I. Methods: 1. Foundations and algorithms John Skilling; 2. Simple applications of Bayesian methods D. S. Sivia and Steve Rawlings; 3. Parameter estimation using Monte Carlo sampling Antony Lewis and Sarah Bridle; 4. Model selection and multi-model interference Andrew R. Liddle, Pia Mukherjee and David Parkinson; 5. Bayesian experimental design and model selection forecasting Roberto Trotta, Martin Kunz, Pia Mukherjee and David Parkinson; 6. Signal separation in cosmology M. P. Hobson, M. A. J. Ashdown and V. Stolyarov; Part II. Applications: 7. Bayesian source extraction M. P. Hobson, Graça Rocha and R. Savage; 8. Flux measurement Daniel Mortlock; 9. Gravitational wave astronomy Neil Cornish; 10. Bayesian analysis of cosmic microwave background data Andrew H. Jaffe; 11. Bayesian multilevel modelling of cosmological populations Thomas J. Loredo and Martin A. Hendry; 12. A Bayesian approach to galaxy evolution studies Stefano Andreon; 13. Photometric redshift estimation: methods and applications Ofer Lahav, Filipe B. Abdalla and Manda Banerji; Index.
OBSCURATION BY GAS AND DUST IN LUMINOUS QUASARS
Usman, S. M.; Murray, S. S.; Hickox, R. C.; Brodwin, M.
2014-06-10
We explore the connection between absorption by neutral gas and extinction by dust in mid-infrared (IR) selected luminous quasars. We use a sample of 33 quasars at redshifts 0.7 < z ≲ 3 in the 9 deg{sup 2} Boötes multiwavelength survey field that are selected using Spitzer Space Telescope Infrared Array Camera colors and are well-detected as luminous X-ray sources (with >150 counts) in Chandra observations. We divide the quasars into dust-obscured and unobscured samples based on their optical to mid-IR color, and measure the neutral hydrogen column density N {sub H} through fitting of the X-ray spectra. We find that all subsets of quasars have consistent power law photon indices Γ ≈ 1.9 that are uncorrelated with N {sub H}. We classify the quasars as gas-absorbed or gas-unabsorbed if N {sub H} > 10{sup 22} cm{sup –2} or N {sub H} < 10{sup 22} cm{sup –2}, respectively. Of 24 dust-unobscured quasars in the sample, only one shows clear evidence for significant intrinsic N {sub H}, while 22 have column densities consistent with N {sub H} < 10{sup 22} cm{sup –2}. In contrast, of the nine dust-obscured quasars, six show evidence for intrinsic gas absorption, and three are consistent with N {sub H} < 10{sup 22} cm{sup –2}. We conclude that dust extinction in IR-selected quasars is strongly correlated with significant gas absorption as determined through X-ray spectral fitting. These results suggest that obscuring gas and dust in quasars are generally co-spatial, and confirm the reliability of simple mid-IR and optical photometric techniques for separating quasars based on obscuration.
Howard B. Stauffer; Cynthia J. Zabel; Jeffrey R. Dunk
2005-01-01
We compared a set of competing logistic regression habitat selection models for Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) in California. The habitat selection models were estimated, compared, evaluated, and tested using multiple sample datasets collected on federal forestlands in northern California. We used Bayesian methods in interpreting...
Infrared/optical energy distributions of high redshifted quasars
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Soifer, B. T.; Neugebauer, G.; Oke, J. B.; Matthews, K.; Lacy, J. H.
1982-01-01
Measurements at 1.2, 1.6 and 2.2 microns were combined with visual spectrophotometry of 21 quasars having redshifts z or = 2.66. The primary result is that the rest frame visual/ultraviolet continua of the high redshift quasars are well described by a sum of a power law continuum with slope of approximately -0.4 and a 3000 A bump. The rest frame visual/ultraviolet continua of these quasars are quite similar to that of 3C273, the archetype of low redshift quasars. There does not appear to be any visual/ultraviolet properties distinguishing high redshift quasars selected via visual or radio techniques.
Bayesian model selection framework for identifying growth patterns in filamentous fungi.
Lin, Xiao; Terejanu, Gabriel; Shrestha, Sajan; Banerjee, Sourav; Chanda, Anindya
2016-06-07
This paper describes a rigorous methodology for quantification of model errors in fungal growth models. This is essential to choose the model that best describes the data and guide modeling efforts. Mathematical modeling of growth of filamentous fungi is necessary in fungal biology for gaining systems level understanding on hyphal and colony behaviors in different environments. A critical challenge in the development of these mathematical models arises from the indeterminate nature of their colony architecture, which is a result of processing diverse intracellular signals induced in response to a heterogeneous set of physical and nutritional factors. There exists a practical gap in connecting fungal growth models with measurement data. Here, we address this gap by introducing the first unified computational framework based on Bayesian inference that can quantify individual model errors and rank the statistical models based on their descriptive power against data. We show that this Bayesian model comparison is just a natural formalization of Occam׳s razor. The application of this framework is discussed in comparing three models in the context of synthetic data generated from a known true fungal growth model. This framework of model comparison achieves a trade-off between data fitness and model complexity and the quantified model error not only helps in calibrating and comparing the models, but also in making better predictions and guiding model refinements. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schöniger, Anneli; Wöhling, Thomas; Nowak, Wolfgang
2014-05-01
Bayesian model averaging ranks the predictive capabilities of alternative conceptual models based on Bayes' theorem. The individual models are weighted with their posterior probability to be the best one in the considered set of models. Finally, their predictions are combined into a robust weighted average and the predictive uncertainty can be quantified. This rigorous procedure does, however, not yet account for possible instabilities due to measurement noise in the calibration data set. This is a major drawback, since posterior model weights may suffer a lack of robustness related to the uncertainty in noisy data, which may compromise the reliability of model ranking. We present a new statistical concept to account for measurement noise as source of uncertainty for the weights in Bayesian model averaging. Our suggested upgrade reflects the limited information content of data for the purpose of model selection. It allows us to assess the significance of the determined posterior model weights, the confidence in model selection, and the accuracy of the quantified predictive uncertainty. Our approach rests on a brute-force Monte Carlo framework. We determine the robustness of model weights against measurement noise by repeatedly perturbing the observed data with random realizations of measurement error. Then, we analyze the induced variability in posterior model weights and introduce this "weighting variance" as an additional term into the overall prediction uncertainty analysis scheme. We further determine the theoretical upper limit in performance of the model set which is imposed by measurement noise. As an extension to the merely relative model ranking, this analysis provides a measure of absolute model performance. To finally decide, whether better data or longer time series are needed to ensure a robust basis for model selection, we resample the measurement time series and assess the convergence of model weights for increasing time series length. We illustrate
Spectral Energy Distributions of Red Quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Glikman, Eilat
We propose to study the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of a sample of dust-reddened quasars, which are transitional objects, triggered by and residing in recently-merged host galaxies, and are therefore ideal laboratories for addressing fundamental questions on the co-evolution of black holes and their host galaxies. We will obtain flux measurements at 89 and 154 microns - the expected peak of dust emission - with the HAWK+ instrument for a sample of these red quasars. We will combine these measurements with already-existing photometric data from SDSS, 2MASS and WISE to construct SEDs from the near-UV to the far-infrared. We will fit these SEDs to models of AGN and host galaxy emission as well as dust obscuration and re-radiation in the infrared using self-consistent Bayesian SED fitting codes to disentangle their underlying physical processes. Our current SEDs extend only to the WISE 22 micron band, resulting in model fits that underestimate the AGN contribution and overestimate the host galaxy's stellar mass and star formation rate. The proposed data will better constrain these properties, and when applied to the full sample, will produce a clearer picture of the complex processes of quasar/galaxy co-evolution. Furthermore, the SEDs for the targeted AGN can be leveraged to provide much-improved bolometric corrections for larger samples of AGN where no infrared data exist. This program utilizes the unique capabilities of SOFIA, the only facility able to observe at these long wavelengths.
Luminous, High-z, Type-2 Quasars are Still Missing
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Richards, Gordon T.; Hennawi, Joseph F.; Rivera, Angelica
2017-01-01
A simple unified model suggests that there should be roughly equal numbers of type-1 (unobscured) and type 2 (obscured) quasars. However, we argue that the expected population of luminous, high-z, type-2 quasars are still missing. While large numbers of type-2 AGNs have now been identified (both via spectroscopy and through color-based arguments in the optical, IR, and X-ray), the vast majority of these are low-luminosity objects at z<1, whereas only handfuls of bonafide type-2 quasars are confirmed at redshifts z~2 with bolometric luminosities that are comparable to the typical luminosity of SDSS type-1 quasars. Although some analyses find the density of high-z, type-2 candidates to be much higher than the type-1 population (at similar bolometric luminosity), our revisiting of the problem through an archival spectroscopic search reveals that the confirmed high-z, type-2 population is only a fraction of the high-z, type-1 quasar population to a depth of WISE W4<8. As most interpretations of the "unified model" predict similar numbers of type-1 and type-2 quasars, this conspicuous lack of luminous type-2 quasars at high-redshift constitutes a major unsolved problem. To uncover these missing type-2 quasars, we explore a candidate selection algorithm that utilizes the sky area of AllWISE, the depth/resolution of large-area Spitzer-IRAC surveys, and optical data from the SDSS.
Posada, David; Buckley, Thomas R
2004-10-01
Model selection is a topic of special relevance in molecular phylogenetics that affects many, if not all, stages of phylogenetic inference. Here we discuss some fundamental concepts and techniques of model selection in the context of phylogenetics. We start by reviewing different aspects of the selection of substitution models in phylogenetics from a theoretical, philosophical and practical point of view, and summarize this comparison in table format. We argue that the most commonly implemented model selection approach, the hierarchical likelihood ratio test, is not the optimal strategy for model selection in phylogenetics, and that approaches like the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian methods offer important advantages. In particular, the latter two methods are able to simultaneously compare multiple nested or nonnested models, assess model selection uncertainty, and allow for the estimation of phylogenies and model parameters using all available models (model-averaged inference or multimodel inference). We also describe how the relative importance of the different parameters included in substitution models can be depicted. To illustrate some of these points, we have applied AIC-based model averaging to 37 mitochondrial DNA sequences from the subgenus Ohomopterus(genus Carabus) ground beetles described by Sota and Vogler (2001).
Bronson, Jonathan E; Fei, Jingyi; Hofman, Jake M; Gonzalez, Ruben L; Wiggins, Chris H
2009-12-16
Time series data provided by single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (smFRET) experiments offer the opportunity to infer not only model parameters describing molecular complexes, e.g., rate constants, but also information about the model itself, e.g., the number of conformational states. Resolving whether such states exist or how many of them exist requires a careful approach to the problem of model selection, here meaning discrimination among models with differing numbers of states. The most straightforward approach to model selection generalizes the common idea of maximum likelihood--selecting the most likely parameter values--to maximum evidence: selecting the most likely model. In either case, such an inference presents a tremendous computational challenge, which we here address by exploiting an approximation technique termed variational Bayesian expectation maximization. We demonstrate how this technique can be applied to temporal data such as smFRET time series; show superior statistical consistency relative to the maximum likelihood approach; compare its performance on smFRET data generated from experiments on the ribosome; and illustrate how model selection in such probabilistic or generative modeling can facilitate analysis of closely related temporal data currently prevalent in biophysics. Source code used in this analysis, including a graphical user interface, is available open source via http://vbFRET.sourceforge.net.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mushotzky, Richard (Technical Monitor); Elvis, Martin
2004-01-01
The aim of the proposal is to investigate the absorption properties of a sample of inter-mediate redshift quasars. The main goals of the project are: Measure the redshift and the column density of the X-ray absorbers; test the correlation between absorption and redshift suggested by ROSAT and ASCA data; constrain the absorber ionization status and metallicity; constrain the absorber dust content and composition through the comparison between the amount of X-ray absorption and optical dust extinction. Unanticipated low energy cut-offs where discovered in ROSAT spectra of quasars and confirmed by ASCA, BeppoSAX and Chandra. In most cases it was not possible to constrain adequately the redshift of the absorber from the X-ray data alone. Two possibilities remain open: a) absorption at the quasar redshift; and b) intervening absorption. The evidences in favour of intrinsic absorption are all indirect. Sensitive XMM observations can discriminate between these different scenarios. If the absorption is at the quasar redshift we can study whether the quasar environment evolves with the Cosmic time.
Hippert, Henrique S; Taylor, James W
2010-04-01
Artificial neural networks have frequently been proposed for electricity load forecasting because of their capabilities for the nonlinear modelling of large multivariate data sets. Modelling with neural networks is not an easy task though; two of the main challenges are defining the appropriate level of model complexity, and choosing the input variables. This paper evaluates techniques for automatic neural network modelling within a Bayesian framework, as applied to six samples containing daily load and weather data for four different countries. We analyse input selection as carried out by the Bayesian 'automatic relevance determination', and the usefulness of the Bayesian 'evidence' for the selection of the best structure (in terms of number of neurones), as compared to methods based on cross-validation.
GPS Quasars as Special Blazars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bai, J. M.; Lee, Myung Gyong
2005-06-01
In this paper, we argue that the gigahertz peaked spectrum (GPS) quasars are special blazars, blazars in dense and dusty gas enviornment. The ROSAT detection rate of GPS quasars is similar to that of flat spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs), suggesting that the relativistic jets in GPS quasars are oriented at small angle to the line of sight. Due to strong inverse Compton scattering off infrared photons from dense and dusty nuclear interstellar media in GPS quasars, most of them may have significant soft gamma-ray and X-ray emission, which is consistent with ASCA X-ray observations. Because Compton cooling in GPS quasars is stronger than that in FSRQs, synchrotron emission in GPS quasars may less dominate over thermal emission of the accretion disk and hot dust, hence most GPS quasars show low optical polarization and small variability, consistent with observations. We suggest that it is the significant radio emission of electron/positron pairs produced by the interaction of gamma-rays with the dense gas and dust grains in GPS quasars that makes GPS quasars show steep radio spectra, low radio polarization, and relatively faint VLBI/VLBA cores. Whether GPS quasars are special blazars can be tested by gamma-ray observations with GLAST in the near future, with the detection rate of GPS quasars being similar to that of FSRQs.
Rowley, Mark I; Coolen, Anthonius C C; Vojnovic, Borivoj; Barber, Paul R
2016-01-01
We present novel Bayesian methods for the analysis of exponential decay data that exploit the evidence carried by every detected decay event and enables robust extension to advanced processing. Our algorithms are presented in the context of fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM) and particular attention has been paid to model the time-domain system (based on time-correlated single photon counting) with unprecedented accuracy. We present estimates of decay parameters for mono- and bi-exponential systems, offering up to a factor of two improvement in accuracy compared to previous popular techniques. Results of the analysis of synthetic and experimental data are presented, and areas where the superior precision of our techniques can be exploited in Förster Resonance Energy Transfer (FRET) experiments are described. Furthermore, we demonstrate two advanced processing methods: decay model selection to choose between differing models such as mono- and bi-exponential, and the simultaneous estimation of instrument and decay parameters.
Rowley, Mark I.; Coolen, Anthonius C. C.; Vojnovic, Borivoj; Barber, Paul R.
2016-01-01
We present novel Bayesian methods for the analysis of exponential decay data that exploit the evidence carried by every detected decay event and enables robust extension to advanced processing. Our algorithms are presented in the context of fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM) and particular attention has been paid to model the time-domain system (based on time-correlated single photon counting) with unprecedented accuracy. We present estimates of decay parameters for mono- and bi-exponential systems, offering up to a factor of two improvement in accuracy compared to previous popular techniques. Results of the analysis of synthetic and experimental data are presented, and areas where the superior precision of our techniques can be exploited in Förster Resonance Energy Transfer (FRET) experiments are described. Furthermore, we demonstrate two advanced processing methods: decay model selection to choose between differing models such as mono- and bi-exponential, and the simultaneous estimation of instrument and decay parameters. PMID:27355322
SDSS J094604.90+183541.8: A GRAVITATIONALLY LENSED QUASAR AT z = 4.8
McGreer, Ian D.; Fan Xiaohui; Bian Fuyan; Farnsworth, Kara; Hall, Patrick B.; Inada, Naohisa; Oguri, Masamune; Strauss, Michael A.; Schneider, Donald P.
2010-08-15
We report the discovery of a gravitationally lensed quasar identified serendipitously in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). The object, SDSS J094604.90+183541.8, was initially targeted for spectroscopy as a luminous red galaxy, but the SDSS spectrum has the features of both a z = 0.388 galaxy and a z = 4.8 quasar. We have obtained additional imaging that resolves the system into two quasar images separated by 3.''06 and a bright galaxy that is strongly blended with one of the quasar images. We confirm spectroscopically that the two quasar images represent a single-lensed source at z = 4.8 with a total magnification of 3.2, and we derive a model for the lensing galaxy. This is the highest redshift lensed quasar currently known. We examine the issues surrounding the selection of such an unusual object from existing data and briefly discuss implications for lensed quasar surveys.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schilling, Amanda; Carlton, A. K.; Kashkanova, A.; Kennefick, J.; Kennefick, D.; Seigar, M. S.; Lacy, C. H.; Galaxy Evolution Survey, Arkansas
2010-01-01
We have computed the mass of the central black hole in 145 quasars chosen from the SDSS (Sloan Digital Sky Survey) DR3. The objects were chosen to sample the peak in quasar evolution and have redshifts in the range 1.85 < z < 4.26. Masses were computed using standard gas dynamics techniques with the luminosity at 1350Å and the width (FWHM) of the Doppler broadened Carbon IV emission line. Also, we were able to compare masses calculated from the CIV line with those calculated from the MgII line for one third of our data set. We will discuss how the mass of the SMBHs change over the range of redshifts and how this may be correlated with other quasar properties. This project is funded by a grant from NASA.
Quasar Metallicities and Host Galaxy Evolution
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Leah, Simon E.; Hamann, F. W.
2006-12-01
From studies of galaxies in the local Universe we find the masses of the galactic spheroidal component corresponds with the mass of the central supermassive black hole (SMBH). This relation is known as the M(gal) M(BH) relation, and suggests a close relationship between the formation of the galaxy and the black hole. We study the metallicities near quasars at high redshift to observe this formation process in action. Associated absorption lines (AALs) provide us with a unique tool for this study, because these lines have a high probability of forming close to the quasar. Most of the work so far, using the emission lines, suggests that quasar environments are typically metal rich, with gas-phase metallicities near solar or higher at all observed redshifts. However, other independant abundance checks, such as AALs, are essential in order to confirm these results. We use very high resolution echelle spectra from VLT-UVES for 8 high redshift (z of 2 to z of 4.6) quasars, selected to contain candidate intrinsic absorbers, and ecompassing a typical rest-frame spectral range from approximatly 900 Angstroms to 2500 Angstroms, designed to include at least Lyman alpha and C IV spectral features. We perform one of the first analyses of absorption line metallicities in high redshift quasars and present lower limits on column densities, as well as estimates for the absorber locations relative to the quasar. We place rough estimates on the abundances where possible. We find covering fractions which vary with velocity, and a significant fraction of absorption lines which exhibit variability, indicating their intrinsic nature. Saturated lines inhibit concrete abundance analysis, but present excellent opportunities for future research proposals.
Quasar Metallicities and Host Galaxy Evolution
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Simon, Leah; Hamann, F.
2007-12-01
From studies of galaxies in the local Universe we find the masses of the galactic spheroidal component corresponds with the mass of the central supermassive black hole (SMBH). This relation is known as the M(gal) - M(BH) relation, and suggests a close relationship between the formation of the galaxy and the black hole. We study the metallicities near quasars at high redshift to observe this formation process in action. Associated absorption lines (AALs) provide us with a unique tool for this study, because these lines have a high probability of forming close to the quasar. Most of the work so far, using the emission lines, suggests that quasar environments are typically metal rich, with gas-phase metallicities near solar or higher at all observed redshifts. However, other independent abundance checks, such as AALs, are essential in order to confirm these results. We use very high resolution echelle spectra from VLT-UVES, Keck-HIRES and Magellan-MIKE for 18 high redshift (z of 2 to z of 4.6) quasars, selected to contain candidate intrinsic absorbers, and encompassing a typical rest-frame spectral range from approximately 900 Angstroms to 2500 Angstroms, designed to include at least Lyman alpha and C IV spectral features. We perform one of the first analyses of absorption line metallicities in high redshift quasars and present column densities, as well as estimates for the absorber locations relative to the quasar. We place solid limits on the C/H abundances, and find a wide range of values, from one hundredth solar to several times solar. We find covering fractions which vary with velocity, indicating the intrinsic nature of the absorbing gas. Saturated lines inhibit concrete abundance analysis in some systems, but are still useful for placing limits based on Gaussian fits to the lines.
Are high-redshift quasars hidden by dusty galaxies?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wright, Edward L.
1990-04-01
A Monte Carlo technique has been developed to compute the joint probability distribution for the reddening and extinction of quasars by galaxies along the line of sight with a realistic dust extinction curve including the 220 nm feature. Galaxies are treated as disks with random inclinations, having exponential or modified Gaussian radial profiles. This technique is used to find the distribution of the reddened quasars on multicolor diagrams such as the (U-J, J-F) plots used by Koo and Kron (1982) to find faint quasars. The multicolor search technique is not a simple UV excess approach, and the resulting color selection does not add significantly to the flux selection discussed by Wright (1981), Ostriker and Heisler (1984), and Heisler and Ostriker (1988). The quasar reddening trend observed by Wright and Malkan (1987) is about 0.35 + or - 0.50 times the mean reddening of the selected sample predicted by the Heisler and Ostriker model.
Are high-redshift quasars hidden by dusty galaxies?
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wright, Edward L.
1990-01-01
A Monte Carlo technique has been developed to compute the joint probability distribution for the reddening and extinction of quasars by galaxies along the line of sight with a realistic dust extinction curve including the 220 nm feature. Galaxies are treated as disks with random inclinations, having exponential or modified Gaussian radial profiles. This technique is used to find the distribution of the reddened quasars on multicolor diagrams such as the (U-J, J-F) plots used by Koo and Kron (1982) to find faint quasars. The multicolor search technique is not a simple UV excess approach, and the resulting color selection does not add significantly to the flux selection discussed by Wright (1981), Ostriker and Heisler (1984), and Heisler and Ostriker (1988). The quasar reddening trend observed by Wright and Malkan (1987) is about 0.35 + or - 0.50 times the mean reddening of the selected sample predicted by the Heisler and Ostriker model.
Evans, Jason; Sullivan, Jack
2011-01-01
A priori selection of models for use in phylogeny estimation from molecular sequence data is increasingly important as the number and complexity of available models increases. The Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the derivative decision-theoretic (DT) approaches rely on a conservative approximation to estimate the posterior probability of a given model. Here, we extended the DT method by using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches to directly estimate model probabilities for an extended candidate pool of all 406 special cases of the general time reversible + Γ family. We analyzed 250 diverse data sets in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the BIC approximation for model selection under the BIC and DT approaches. Model choice under DT differed between the BIC approximation and direct estimation methods for 45% of the data sets (113/250), and differing model choice resulted in significantly different sets of trees in the posterior distributions for 26% of the data sets (64/250). The model with the lowest BIC score differed from the model with the highest posterior probability in 30% of the data sets (76/250). When the data indicate a clear model preference, the BIC approximation works well enough to result in the same model selection as with directly estimated model probabilities, but a substantial proportion of biological data sets lack this characteristic, which leads to selection of underparametrized models.
BINARY QUASARS AT HIGH REDSHIFT. I. 24 NEW QUASAR PAIRS AT z {approx} 3-4
Hennawi, Joseph F.; Myers, Adam D.; Shen, Yue; Strauss, Michael A.; Djorgovski, S. G.; Glikman, Eilat; Mahabal, Ashish; Fan Xiaohui; Martin, Crystal L.; Richards, Gordon T.; Schneider, Donald P.; Shankar, Francesco
2010-08-20
The clustering of quasars on small scales yields fundamental constraints on models of quasar evolution and the buildup of supermassive black holes. This paper describes the first systematic survey to discover high-redshift binary quasars. Using color-selection and photometric redshift techniques, we searched 8142 deg{sup 2} of Sloan Digital Sky Survey imaging data for binary quasar candidates, and confirmed them with follow-up spectroscopy. Our sample of 27 high-redshift binaries (24 of them new discoveries) at redshifts 2.9 < z < 4.3 with proper transverse separations 10 kpc < R{sub perpendicular} < 650 kpc increases the number of such objects known by an order of magnitude. Eight members of this sample are very close pairs with R{sub perpendicular} < 100 kpc, and of these close systems four are at z>3.5. The completeness and efficiency of our well-defined selection algorithm are quantified using simulated photometry and we find that our sample is {approx}50% complete. Our companion paper uses this knowledge to make the first measurement of the small-scale clustering (R < 1 h {sup -1} Mpc comoving) of high-redshift quasars. High-redshift binaries constitute exponentially rare coincidences of two extreme (M {approx}> 10{sup 9} M {sub sun}) supermassive black holes. At z {approx} 4, there is about one close binary per 10 Gpc{sup 3}, thus these could be the highest sigma peaks, the analogs of superclusters, in the early universe.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cavaliere, A.; Morrison, P.; Wood, K.
1971-01-01
We examine the consequences for quasar statistics of a class of models describing the evolution of individual strong sources. The continuity equation for the change of density and luminosity with cosmological epoch determines the population, once a model for the evolution of an individual object is chosen. A dynamical model of spinning objects seems to agree satisfactorily with the present observational sample, both in density and in luminosity function; such a model requires that an individual object strongly brightens as time goes on. A genetic relationship between quasars and radio galaxies which qualitatively fits the observations is suggested by the model.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Di Matteo, Tiziana
2015-08-01
I will discuss predictions for the first quasars and the first galaxies and their contribution to reionization from the BlueTides simulation. BlueTides is a uniquely large volume and high resolution simulation to study the high redshift universe: with 0.7 trillion particles in a volume of 1/2 of a gigaparsec on the side. This is the first simulation large enough to resolve the relevant scales, that the first massive galaxies and quasar form. These massive objects at high redshifts will be investigated with the next generation telescopes (WFIRST and ALMA).
Towards a comprehensive picture of powerful quasars, their host galaxies and quasar winds at z ˜ 0.5
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wylezalek, Dominika; Zakamska, Nadia L.; Liu, Guilin; Obied, Georges
2016-03-01
Luminous type-2 quasars in which the glow from the central black hole is obscured by dust are ideal targets for studying their host galaxies and the quasars' effect on galaxy evolution. Such feedback appears ubiquitous in luminous obscured quasars where high-velocity-ionized nebulae have been found. We present rest-frame yellow-band (˜5000 Å) observations using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) for a sample of 20 luminous quasar host galaxies at 0.2 < z < 0.6 selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. For the first time, we combine host galaxy observations with geometric measurements of quasar illumination using blue-band HST observations and [O III] integral field unit observations probing the quasar winds. The HST images reveal bright merger signatures in about half the galaxies; a significantly higher fraction than in comparison inactive ellipticals. We show that the host galaxies are primarily bulge-dominated, with masses close to M*, but belong to <30 per cent of elliptical galaxies that are highly star forming at z ˜ 0.5. Ionized gas signatures are uncorrelated with faint stellar discs (if present), confirming that the ionized gas is not concentrated in a disc. Scattering cones and [O III] ionized gas velocity field are aligned with the forward scattering cones being co-spatial with the blue-shifted side of the velocity field, suggesting the high-velocity gas is indeed photo-ionized by the quasar. Based on the host galaxies' high star formation rates and bright merger signatures, we suggest that this low-redshift outbreak of luminous quasar activity is triggered by recent minor mergers. Combining these novel observations, we present new quasar unification tests, which are in agreement with expectations of the orientation-based unification model for quasars.
VizieR Online Data Catalog: SDSS DLA and absorber quasar samples (Murphy+, 2016)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Murphy, M. T.; Bernet, M. L.
2016-07-01
Using spectral slope fits of the SDSS DR7 quasar spectra, and the DLA/sub-DLA identifications of Noterdaeme et al. (2009, Cat. J/A+A/505/1087), we found that the 774 selected quasars with a single foreground DLA are significantly (3.2σ) redder, on average, than carefully selected control groups drawn from a sample of ~7000 quasars without foreground DLAs. (4 data files).
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Vrieze, Scott I.
2012-01-01
This article reviews the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) in model selection and the appraisal of psychological theory. The focus is on latent variable models, given their growing use in theory testing and construction. Theoretical statistical results in regression are discussed, and more important…
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Vrieze, Scott I.
2012-01-01
This article reviews the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) in model selection and the appraisal of psychological theory. The focus is on latent variable models, given their growing use in theory testing and construction. Theoretical statistical results in regression are discussed, and more important…
FIRST-2MASS RED QUASARS: TRANSITIONAL OBJECTS EMERGING FROM THE DUST
Glikman, Eilat; Urrutia, Tanya; Lacy, Mark; Djorgovski, S. George; Mahabal, Ashish; Myers, Adam D.; Ross, Nicholas P.; Petitjean, Patrick; Ge, Jian; Schneider, Donald P.; York, Donald G.
2012-09-20
We present a sample of 120 dust-reddened quasars identified by matching radio sources detected at 1.4 GHz in the Faint Images of the Radio Sky at Twenty Centimeters survey with the near-infrared Two Micron All Sky Survey catalog and color-selecting red sources. Optical and/or near-infrared spectroscopy provide broad wavelength sampling of their spectral energy distributions that we use to determine their reddening, characterized by E(B - V). We demonstrate that the reddening in these quasars is best described by Small-Magellanic-Cloud-like dust. This sample spans a wide range in redshift and reddening (0.1 {approx}< z {approx}< 3, 0.1 {approx}< E(B - V) {approx}< 1.5), which we use to investigate the possible correlation of luminosity with reddening. At every redshift, dust-reddened quasars are intrinsically the most luminous quasars. We interpret this result in the context of merger-driven quasar/galaxy co-evolution where these reddened quasars are revealing an emergent phase during which the heavily obscured quasar is shedding its cocoon of dust prior to becoming a 'normal' blue quasar. When correcting for extinction, we find that, depending on how the parent population is defined, these red quasars make up {approx}< 15%-20% of the luminous quasar population. We estimate, based on the fraction of objects in this phase, that its duration is 15%-20% as long as the unobscured, blue quasar phase.
Fan, Xiao-Hui; Strauss, Michael A.; Richards, Gordon T.; Hennawi, Joseph F.; Becker, Robert H.; White, Richard L.; Diamond-Stanic, Aleksandar M.; onley, Jennifer L.D; Jiang, Lin-Hua; Kim, J.Serena; Vestergaard, Marianne; Young, Jason E.; Gunn, James E.; Lupton, Robert H.; Knapp, Gillian R.; Schneider, Donald P.; Brandt, W.N.; Bahcall, Neta A.; Barentine, J.C.; Brinkmann, J.; Brewington, Howard J.; /Arizona U., Astron. Dept. - Steward Observ. /Princeton U. Observ. /Johns Hopkins U. /UC, Berkeley, Astron. Dept. /UC, Davis /LLNL, Livermore /Baltimore, Space Telescope Sci. /Penn State U., Astron. Astrophys. /Apache Point Observ. /Tokyo U., ICRR /Mt. Suhora Observ., Cracow /Fermilab /Garching, Max Planck Inst., MPE
2005-12-01
We present the discovery of seven quasars at z > 5.7, selected from {approx}2000 deg{sup 2} of multicolor imaging data of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). The new quasars have redshifts z from 5.79 to 6.13. Five are selected as part of a complete flux-limited sample in the SDSS Northern Galactic Cap; two have larger photometric errors and are not part of the complete sample. One of the new quasars, SDSS J1335+3533 (z = 5.93), exhibits no emission lines; the 3-{sigma} limit on the rest-frame equivalent width of Ly{alpha} + NV line is 5 {angstrom}. It is the highest redshift lineless quasar known, and could be a gravitational lensed galaxy, a BL Lac object or a new type of quasar. Two new z > 6 quasars, SDSS 1250+3130 (z = 6.13) and SDSS J1137+3549 (z = 6.01), show deep Gunn-Peterson absorption gaps in Ly{alpha}. These gaps are narrower the complete Gunn-Peterson absorption troughs observed among quasars at z > 6.2 and do not have complete Ly{beta} absorption.
THE COLOR VARIABILITY OF QUASARS
Schmidt, Kasper B.; Rix, Hans-Walter; Knecht, Matthias; Hogg, David W.; Shields, Joseph C.; Maoz, Dan; Bovy, Jo
2012-01-10
We quantify quasar color variability using an unprecedented variability database-ugriz photometry of 9093 quasars from Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Stripe 82, observed over 8 years at {approx}60 epochs each. We confirm previous reports that quasars become bluer when brightening. We find a redshift dependence of this blueing in a given set of bands (e.g., g and r), but show that it is the result of the flux contribution from less-variable or delayed emission lines in the different SDSS bands at different redshifts. After correcting for this effect, quasar color variability is remarkably uniform, and independent not only of redshift, but also of quasar luminosity and black hole mass. The color variations of individual quasars, as they vary in brightness on year timescales, are much more pronounced than the ranges in color seen in samples of quasars across many orders of magnitude in luminosity. This indicates distinct physical mechanisms behind quasar variability and the observed range of quasar luminosities at a given black hole mass-quasar variations cannot be explained by changes in the mean accretion rate. We do find some dependence of the color variability on the characteristics of the flux variations themselves, with fast, low-amplitude, brightness variations producing more color variability. The observed behavior could arise if quasar variability results from flares or ephemeral hot spots in an accretion disk.
Selecting Summary Statistics in Approximate Bayesian Computation for Calibrating Stochastic Models
Burr, Tom
2013-01-01
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an approach for using measurement data to calibrate stochastic computer models, which are common in biology applications. ABC is becoming the “go-to” option when the data and/or parameter dimension is large because it relies on user-chosen summary statistics rather than the full data and is therefore computationally feasible. One technical challenge with ABC is that the quality of the approximation to the posterior distribution of model parameters depends on the user-chosen summary statistics. In this paper, the user requirement to choose effective summary statistics in order to accurately estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters is investigated and illustrated by example, using a model and corresponding real data of mitochondrial DNA population dynamics. We show that for some choices of summary statistics, the posterior distribution of model parameters is closely approximated and for other choices of summary statistics, the posterior distribution is not closely approximated. A strategy to choose effective summary statistics is suggested in cases where the stochastic computer model can be run at many trial parameter settings, as in the example. PMID:24288668
Bayesian Variable Selection for Hierarchical Gene-Environment and Gene-Gene Interactions
Liu, Changlu; Ma, Jianzhong; Amos, Christopher I.
2014-01-01
We propose a Bayesian hierarchical mixture model framework that allows us to investigate the genetic and environmental effects, gene by gene interactions and gene by environment interactions in the same model. Our approach incorporates the natural hierarchical structure between the main effects and interaction effects into a mixture model, such that our methods tend to remove the irrelevant interaction effects more effectively, resulting in more robust and parsimonious models. We consider both strong and weak hierarchical models. For a strong hierarchical model, both of the main effects between interacting factors must be present for the interactions to be considered in the model development, while for a weak hierarchical model, only one of the two main effects is required to be present for the interaction to be evaluated. Our simulation results show that the proposed strong and weak hierarchical mixture models work well in controlling false positive rates and provide a powerful approach for identifying the predisposing effects and interactions in gene-environment interaction studies, in comparison with the naive model that does not impose this hierarchical constraint in most of the scenarios simulated. We illustrated our approach using data for lung cancer and cutaneous melanoma. PMID:25154630
Shen Yue; Kelly, Brandon C.
2012-02-20
We jointly constrain the luminosity function (LF) and black hole mass function (BHMF) of broad-line quasars with forward Bayesian modeling in the quasar mass-luminosity plane, based on a homogeneous sample of {approx}58, 000 Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 7 quasars at z {approx} 0.3-5. We take into account the selection effect of the sample flux limit; more importantly, we deal with the statistical scatter between true BH masses and FWHM-based single-epoch virial mass estimates, as well as potential luminosity-dependent biases of these mass estimates. The LF is tightly constrained in the regime sampled by SDSS and makes reasonable predictions when extrapolated to {approx}3 mag fainter. Downsizing is seen in the model LF. On the other hand, we find it difficult to constrain the BHMF to within a factor of a few at z {approx}> 0.7 (with Mg II and C IV-based virial BH masses). This is mainly driven by the unknown luminosity-dependent bias of these mass estimators and its degeneracy with other model parameters, and secondly driven by the fact that SDSS quasars only sample the tip of the active BH population at high redshift. Nevertheless, the most likely models favor a positive luminosity-dependent bias for Mg II and possibly for C IV, such that at fixed true BH mass, objects with higher-than-average luminosities have overestimated FWHM-based virial masses. There is tentative evidence that downsizing also manifests itself in the active BHMF, and the BH mass density in broad-line quasars contributes an insignificant amount to the total BH mass density at all times. Within our model uncertainties, we do not find a strong BH mass dependence of the mean Eddington ratio, but there is evidence that the mean Eddington ratio (at fixed BH mass) increases with redshift.
METALLICITY AND QUASAR OUTFLOWS
Wang, Huiyuan; Zhou, Hongyan; Wang, Tinggui; Yuan, Weimin
2012-06-01
Correlations of the outflow strength of quasars, as measured by the blueshift and asymmetry index (BAI) of the C IV line, with intensities and ratios of broad emission lines, based on composite quasar spectra built from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, are investigated. We find that most of the line ratios of other ions to C IV increase prominently with BAI. These behaviors can be well understood in the context of increasing metallicity with BAI. The strength of the dominant coolant, C IV line, decreases, and weak collisionally excited lines increase with gas metallicity as a result of the competition between different line coolants. Using Si IV+O IV]/C IV as an indicator of gas metallicity, we present, for the first time, a strong correlation between the metallicity and the outflow strength of quasars over a wide range of 1.7-6.9 times solar abundance. Our result implies that metallicity plays an important role in the formation of quasar outflows, likely by affecting outflow acceleration. This effect may have a profound impact on galaxy evolution via momentum feedback and chemical enrichment.
Metallicity and Quasar Outflows
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Huiyuan; Zhou, Hongyan; Yuan, Weimin; Wang, Tinggui
2012-06-01
Correlations of the outflow strength of quasars, as measured by the blueshift and asymmetry index (BAI) of the C IV line, with intensities and ratios of broad emission lines, based on composite quasar spectra built from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, are investigated. We find that most of the line ratios of other ions to C IV increase prominently with BAI. These behaviors can be well understood in the context of increasing metallicity with BAI. The strength of the dominant coolant, C IV line, decreases, and weak collisionally excited lines increase with gas metallicity as a result of the competition between different line coolants. Using Si IV+O IV]/C IV as an indicator of gas metallicity, we present, for the first time, a strong correlation between the metallicity and the outflow strength of quasars over a wide range of 1.7-6.9 times solar abundance. Our result implies that metallicity plays an important role in the formation of quasar outflows, likely by affecting outflow acceleration. This effect may have a profound impact on galaxy evolution via momentum feedback and chemical enrichment.
A Survey for Very High-Redshift Quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lemley, Shelley R.
1995-12-01
I have been conducting a deep, three color survey for very high redshift quasars and will present information on how my candidates, which are awaiting spectroscopic confirmation, have been selected. The survey involves direct imaging through Gunn gri filters using a 2048 x 2048 STIS ccd chip and Cerro Tololo's Curtis Scmidt Telescope. Quasar candidates in the range 4.2 < z < 5.4 have been selected based on the detection of the Lyman alpha line and the strong drop in the spectrum blueward of this. Because of this response, quasars are clearly located away from the stellar locus on g - r vs. r - i diagrams. Quasar candidates with z ~ 4.5 have large values of g - r and values of r - i near zero. The z>5 candidates have large r - i values and g - r values near zero. Before beginning the survey, test observations using this selection method were made of two known quasars with redshifts of 4.5 and 4.7. The quasars were successfully relocated by the technique and several candidates, which will also be observed for spectroscopic confirmation, were selected from those two fields. To date, 13 square degrees have been surveyed.
Multi-scale Inference of Interaction Rules in Animal Groups Using Bayesian Model Selection
Mann, Richard P.; Perna, Andrea; Strömbom, Daniel; Garnett, Roman; Herbert-Read, James E.; Sumpter, David J. T.; Ward, Ashley J. W.
2013-01-01
Inference of interaction rules of animals moving in groups usually relies on an analysis of large scale system behaviour. Models are tuned through repeated simulation until they match the observed behaviour. More recent work has used the fine scale motions of animals to validate and fit the rules of interaction of animals in groups. Here, we use a Bayesian methodology to compare a variety of models to the collective motion of glass prawns (Paratya australiensis). We show that these exhibit a stereotypical ‘phase transition’, whereby an increase in density leads to the onset of collective motion in one direction. We fit models to this data, which range from: a mean-field model where all prawns interact globally; to a spatial Markovian model where prawns are self-propelled particles influenced only by the current positions and directions of their neighbours; up to non-Markovian models where prawns have ‘memory’ of previous interactions, integrating their experiences over time when deciding to change behaviour. We show that the mean-field model fits the large scale behaviour of the system, but does not capture the observed locality of interactions. Traditional self-propelled particle models fail to capture the fine scale dynamics of the system. The most sophisticated model, the non-Markovian model, provides a good match to the data at both the fine scale and in terms of reproducing global dynamics, while maintaining a biologically plausible perceptual range. We conclude that prawns’ movements are influenced by not just the current direction of nearby conspecifics, but also those encountered in the recent past. Given the simplicity of prawns as a study system our research suggests that self-propelled particle models of collective motion should, if they are to be realistic at multiple biological scales, include memory of previous interactions and other non-Markovian effects. PMID:23555206
Multi-scale Inference of Interaction Rules in Animal Groups Using Bayesian Model Selection
Mann, Richard P.; Perna, Andrea; Strömbom, Daniel; Garnett, Roman; Herbert-Read, James E.; Sumpter, David J. T.; Ward, Ashley J. W.
2012-01-01
Inference of interaction rules of animals moving in groups usually relies on an analysis of large scale system behaviour. Models are tuned through repeated simulation until they match the observed behaviour. More recent work has used the fine scale motions of animals to validate and fit the rules of interaction of animals in groups. Here, we use a Bayesian methodology to compare a variety of models to the collective motion of glass prawns (Paratya australiensis). We show that these exhibit a stereotypical ‘phase transition’, whereby an increase in density leads to the onset of collective motion in one direction. We fit models to this data, which range from: a mean-field model where all prawns interact globally; to a spatial Markovian model where prawns are self-propelled particles influenced only by the current positions and directions of their neighbours; up to non-Markovian models where prawns have ‘memory’ of previous interactions, integrating their experiences over time when deciding to change behaviour. We show that the mean-field model fits the large scale behaviour of the system, but does not capture fine scale rules of interaction, which are primarily mediated by physical contact. Conversely, the Markovian self-propelled particle model captures the fine scale rules of interaction but fails to reproduce global dynamics. The most sophisticated model, the non-Markovian model, provides a good match to the data at both the fine scale and in terms of reproducing global dynamics. We conclude that prawns' movements are influenced by not just the current direction of nearby conspecifics, but also those encountered in the recent past. Given the simplicity of prawns as a study system our research suggests that self-propelled particle models of collective motion should, if they are to be realistic at multiple biological scales, include memory of previous interactions and other non-Markovian effects. PMID:22241970
Multi-scale inference of interaction rules in animal groups using Bayesian model selection.
Mann, Richard P; Perna, Andrea; Strömbom, Daniel; Garnett, Roman; Herbert-Read, James E; Sumpter, David J T; Ward, Ashley J W
2012-01-01
Inference of interaction rules of animals moving in groups usually relies on an analysis of large scale system behaviour. Models are tuned through repeated simulation until they match the observed behaviour. More recent work has used the fine scale motions of animals to validate and fit the rules of interaction of animals in groups. Here, we use a Bayesian methodology to compare a variety of models to the collective motion of glass prawns (Paratya australiensis). We show that these exhibit a stereotypical 'phase transition', whereby an increase in density leads to the onset of collective motion in one direction. We fit models to this data, which range from: a mean-field model where all prawns interact globally; to a spatial Markovian model where prawns are self-propelled particles influenced only by the current positions and directions of their neighbours; up to non-Markovian models where prawns have 'memory' of previous interactions, integrating their experiences over time when deciding to change behaviour. We show that the mean-field model fits the large scale behaviour of the system, but does not capture fine scale rules of interaction, which are primarily mediated by physical contact. Conversely, the Markovian self-propelled particle model captures the fine scale rules of interaction but fails to reproduce global dynamics. The most sophisticated model, the non-Markovian model, provides a good match to the data at both the fine scale and in terms of reproducing global dynamics. We conclude that prawns' movements are influenced by not just the current direction of nearby conspecifics, but also those encountered in the recent past. Given the simplicity of prawns as a study system our research suggests that self-propelled particle models of collective motion should, if they are to be realistic at multiple biological scales, include memory of previous interactions and other non-Markovian effects.
Multi-scale inference of interaction rules in animal groups using Bayesian model selection.
Mann, Richard P; Perna, Andrea; Strömbom, Daniel; Garnett, Roman; Herbert-Read, James E; Sumpter, David J T; Ward, Ashley J W
2013-01-01
Inference of interaction rules of animals moving in groups usually relies on an analysis of large scale system behaviour. Models are tuned through repeated simulation until they match the observed behaviour. More recent work has used the fine scale motions of animals to validate and fit the rules of interaction of animals in groups. Here, we use a Bayesian methodology to compare a variety of models to the collective motion of glass prawns (Paratya australiensis). We show that these exhibit a stereotypical 'phase transition', whereby an increase in density leads to the onset of collective motion in one direction. We fit models to this data, which range from: a mean-field model where all prawns interact globally; to a spatial Markovian model where prawns are self-propelled particles influenced only by the current positions and directions of their neighbours; up to non-Markovian models where prawns have 'memory' of previous interactions, integrating their experiences over time when deciding to change behaviour. We show that the mean-field model fits the large scale behaviour of the system, but does not capture the observed locality of interactions. Traditional self-propelled particle models fail to capture the fine scale dynamics of the system. The most sophisticated model, the non-Markovian model, provides a good match to the data at both the fine scale and in terms of reproducing global dynamics, while maintaining a biologically plausible perceptual range. We conclude that prawns' movements are influenced by not just the current direction of nearby conspecifics, but also those encountered in the recent past. Given the simplicity of prawns as a study system our research suggests that self-propelled particle models of collective motion should, if they are to be realistic at multiple biological scales, include memory of previous interactions and other non-Markovian effects.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kohler, Susanna
2017-02-01
The intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF) has discovered a quasar the brightly-shining, active nucleus of a galaxy abruptly turning on in what appears to be the fastest such transition ever seen in such an object.A Rapid TransitionQuasars are expected to show variations in brightness on timescales of hours to millions of years, but its not often that we get to study their major variability in real time! So far, weve discovered only a dozen changing-look quasars active galactic nuclei that exhibit major changes in their spectral class and brightness between observations. Roughly half of these were quasars that turned on and half were quasars that turned off, generally on timescales of maybe 5 or 10 years.The dramatic change in spectrum of iPTF 16bco between the archival SDSS data from 2004 (bottom) and the follow-up spectroscopy from Keck 2+DEIMOS in 2016 (top). [Adapted from Gezari et al. 2017]In June 2016, however, a team of scientists led by Suvi Gezari (University of Maryland) discovered iPTF 16bco, a nuclear transient that wasnt there the last time Palomar checked in 2012. A search through archival Sloan Digital Sky Survey and GALEX data in addition to some follow-up X-ray imaging and spectroscopic observations told the team what they needed to know: iPTF 16bco is a quasar that only just turned on within the 500 days preceding the iPTF observations.This source, in fact, is a 100-million-solar-mass black hole located at the center of a galaxy at a redshift of z= 0.237. In just over a year, the source changed classification from a galaxy with weak narrow-line emission to a quasar with characteristic strong, broad emission lines and a ten-fold increase in continuum brightness! What caused this sudden transition?Instabilities at Fault?iPTF 16bco and the other known changing-look quasars with disappearing (red circles) and appearing (blue circles) broad-line emission. [Adapted from Gezari et al. 2017]Gezari and collaborators used the large number of recent
Sollero, Bruna P; Junqueira, Vinícius S; Gomes, Cláudia C G; Caetano, Alexandre R; Cardoso, Fernando F
2017-06-15
Cattle resistance to ticks is known to be under genetic control with a complex biological mechanism within and among breeds. Our aim was to identify genomic segments and tag single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with tick-resistance in Hereford and Braford cattle. The predictive performance of a very low-density tag SNP panel was estimated and compared with results obtained with a 50 K SNP dataset. BayesB (π = 0.99) was initially applied in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for this complex trait by using deregressed estimated breeding values for tick counts and 41,045 SNP genotypes from 3455 animals raised in southern Brazil. To estimate the combined effect of a genomic region that is potentially associated with quantitative trait loci (QTL), 2519 non-overlapping 1-Mb windows that varied in SNP number were defined, with the top 48 windows including 914 SNPs and explaining more than 20% of the estimated genetic variance for tick resistance. Subsequently, the most informative SNPs were selected based on Bayesian parameters (model frequency and t-like statistics), linkage disequilibrium and minor allele frequency to propose a very low-density 58-SNP panel. Some of these tag SNPs mapped close to or within genes and pseudogenes that are functionally related to tick resistance. Prediction ability of this SNP panel was investigated by cross-validation using K-means and random clustering and a BayesA model to predict direct genomic values. Accuracies from these cross-validations were 0.27 ± 0.09 and 0.30 ± 0.09 for the K-means and random clustering groups, respectively, compared to respective values of 0.37 ± 0.08 and 0.43 ± 0.08 when using all 41,045 SNPs and BayesB with π = 0.99, or of 0.28 ± 0.07 and 0.40 ± 0.08 with π = 0.999. Bayesian GWAS model parameters can be used to select tag SNPs for a very low-density panel, which will include SNPs that are potentially linked to functional genes. It can be useful for cost
The WISSH Quasars Project: Probing the AGN-Galaxy Coevolution In the Most Luminous Quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bischetti, Manuela; Piconcelli, E.; Vietri, G.; Bongiorno, A.; Fiore, F.; Duras, F.; Martocchia, S.; Zappacosta, L.; Brusa, M.; Vignali, C.; Marconi, A.; Cresci, G.; WISSH Collaboration
2016-10-01
The WISE/SDSS selected hyper-luminous (WISSH) quasars survey is an extensive multiband observing program (from millimeter wavelengths to hard X rays) to investigate the role of nuclear activity in SMBH-galaxy self-regulated growth via extended outflows. Our ongoing project is designed to accurately constrain both AGN and host galaxy ISM properties in a large sample of 90 broad-line quasars at the brightest end of the AGN luminosity function (L_bol > 1e14 L_sun) and at the peak of their number density (z 2 - 4)I will review the most relevant results obtained to date with emphasis on the discovery of extremely powerful (up to 4% of L_bol) ionized outflows, the relation between AGN properties (obscuration, luminosity and Eddington ratio) and large-scale winds, and the SED of these hyper-luminous quasars.
THE RADIO PROPERTIES OF TYPE 2 QUASARS
Lal, Dharam Vir; Ho, Luis C.
2010-03-15
This paper presents the first high-resolution and high-sensitivity study of the radio properties of optically selected type 2 quasars. We used the Very Large Array at 8.4 GHz to observe 59 sources drawn from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey sample of Zakamska et al.. The detection rate of our survey is 59% (35/59), comparable to the detection rate in FIRST at 1.4 GHz. Ongoing star formation, although present, contributes negligible radio emission at the current sensitivity limit. Comparing the radio powers with the [O III] {lambda}5007 luminosities, we find that roughly 15% {+-} 5% of the sample can be considered radio loud. Intriguingly, the vast majority of the detected sources in our sample fall in a region intermediate between those traditionally occupied by radio loud and radio quiet quasars. Moreover, most of these 'radio intermediate' sources tend to have flat or inverted radio spectra, which we speculate may be caused by free-free absorption by ionized gas in the narrow-line region. The incidence of flat-spectrum sources in type 2 quasars appears to be much higher than in type 1 quasars, in apparent violation of the simple orientation-based unified model for active galaxies.
The luminosity function of quasars
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Pei, Yichuan C.
1995-01-01
We propose a new evolutionary model for the optical luminosity function of quasars. Our analytical model is derived from fits to the empirical luminosity function estimated by Hartwick and Schade and Warren, Hewett, and Osmer on the basis of more than 1200 quasars over the range of redshifts 0 approximately less than z approximately less than 4.5. We find that the evolution of quasars over this entire redshift range can be well fitted by a Gaussian distribution, while the shape of the luminosity function can be well fitted by either a double power law or an exponential L(exp 1/4) law. The predicted number counts of quasars, as a function of either apparent magnitude or redshift, are fully consistent with the observed ones. Our model indicates that the evolution of quasars reaches its maximum at z approximately = 2.8 and declines at higher redshifts. An extrapolation of the evolution to z approximately greater than 4.5 implies that quasars may have started their cosmic fireworks at z(sub f) approximately = 5.2-5.5. Forthcoming surveys of quasars at these redshifts will be critical to constrain the epoch of quasar formation. All the results we derived are based on observed quasars and are therefore subject to the bias of obscuration by dust in damped Ly alpha systems. Future surveys of these absorption systems at z approximately greater than 3 will also be important if the formation epoch of quasars is to be known unambiguously.
The luminosity function of quasars
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Pei, Yichuan C.
1995-01-01
We propose a new evolutionary model for the optical luminosity function of quasars. Our analytical model is derived from fits to the empirical luminosity function estimated by Hartwick and Schade and Warren, Hewett, and Osmer on the basis of more than 1200 quasars over the range of redshifts 0 approximately less than z approximately less than 4.5. We find that the evolution of quasars over this entire redshift range can be well fitted by a Gaussian distribution, while the shape of the luminosity function can be well fitted by either a double power law or an exponential L(exp 1/4) law. The predicted number counts of quasars, as a function of either apparent magnitude or redshift, are fully consistent with the observed ones. Our model indicates that the evolution of quasars reaches its maximum at z approximately = 2.8 and declines at higher redshifts. An extrapolation of the evolution to z approximately greater than 4.5 implies that quasars may have started their cosmic fireworks at z(sub f) approximately = 5.2-5.5. Forthcoming surveys of quasars at these redshifts will be critical to constrain the epoch of quasar formation. All the results we derived are based on observed quasars and are therefore subject to the bias of obscuration by dust in damped Ly alpha systems. Future surveys of these absorption systems at z approximately greater than 3 will also be important if the formation epoch of quasars is to be known unambiguously.
A Bayesian analysis of the effect of selection for growth rate on growth curves in rabbits
Blasco, Agustín; Piles, Miriam; Varona, Luis
2003-01-01
Gompertz growth curves were fitted to the data of 137 rabbits from control (C) and selected (S) lines. The animals came from a synthetic rabbit line selected for an increased growth rate. The embryos from generations 3 and 4 were frozen and thawed to be contemporary of rabbits born in generation 10. Group C was the offspring of generations 3 and 4, and group S was the contemporary offspring of generation 10. The animals were weighed individually twice a week during the first four weeks of life, and once a week thereafter, until 20 weeks of age. Subsequently, the males were weighed weekly until 40 weeks of age. The random samples of the posterior distributions of the growth curve parameters were drawn by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. As a consequence of selection, the selected animals were heavier than the C animals throughout the entire growth curve. Adult body weight, estimated as a parameter of the Gompertz curve, was 7% higher in the selected line. The other parameters of the Gompertz curve were scarcely affected by selection. When selected and control growth curves are represented in a metabolic scale, all differences disappear. PMID:12605849
Martínez, Isabel; Wiegand, Thorsten; Camarero, J Julio; Batllori, Enric; Gutiérrez, Emilia
2011-05-01
Alpine tree-line ecotones are characterized by marked changes at small spatial scales that may result in a variety of physiognomies. A set of alternative individual-based models was tested with data from four contrasting Pinus uncinata ecotones in the central Spanish Pyrenees to reveal the minimal subset of processes required for tree-line formation. A Bayesian approach combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods was employed to obtain the posterior distribution of model parameters, allowing the use of model selection procedures. The main features of real tree lines emerged only in models considering nonlinear responses in individual rates of growth or mortality with respect to the altitudinal gradient. Variation in tree-line physiognomy reflected mainly changes in the relative importance of these nonlinear responses, while other processes, such as dispersal limitation and facilitation, played a secondary role. Different nonlinear responses also determined the presence or absence of krummholz, in agreement with recent findings highlighting a different response of diffuse and abrupt or krummholz tree lines to climate change. The method presented here can be widely applied in individual-based simulation models and will turn model selection and evaluation in this type of models into a more transparent, effective, and efficient exercise.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo
2014-06-01
Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.
Bayesian Variable Selection in Multilevel Item Response Theory Models with Application in Genomics.
Fragoso, Tiago M; de Andrade, Mariza; Pereira, Alexandre C; Rosa, Guilherme J M; Soler, Júlia M P
2016-04-01
The goal of this paper is to present an implementation of stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) to multilevel model from item response theory (IRT). As experimental settings get more complex and models are required to integrate multiple (and sometimes massive) sources of information, a model that can jointly summarize and select the most relevant characteristics can provide better interpretation and a deeper insight into the problem. A multilevel IRT model recently proposed in the literature for modeling multifactorial diseases is extended to perform variable selection in the presence of thousands of covariates using SSVS. We derive conditional distributions required for such a task as well as an acceptance-rejection step that allows for the SSVS in high dimensional settings using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We validate the variable selection procedure through simulation studies, and illustrate its application on a study with genetic markers associated with the metabolic syndrome. © 2016 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.
Finding new high-redshift quasars by asking the neighbours
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Polsterer, Kai Lars; Zinn, Peter-Christian; Gieseke, Fabian
2013-01-01
Quasars with a high redshift (z) are important to understand the evolution processes of galaxies in the early Universe. However, only a few of these distant objects are known to this date. The costs of building and operating a 10-m class telescope limit the number of facilities and, thus, the available observation time. Therefore, an efficient selection of candidates is mandatory. This paper presents a new approach to select quasar candidates with high redshift (z > 4.8) based on photometric catalogues. We have chosen to use the z > 4.8 limit for our approach because the dominant Lyman α emission line of a quasar can only be found in the Sloan i- and z-band filters. As part of the candidate selection approach, a photometric redshift estimator is presented, too. Three of the 120 000 generated candidates have been spectroscopically analysed in follow-up observations and a new z = 5.0 quasar was found. This result is consistent with the estimated detection ratio of about 50 per cent and we expect 60 000 high-redshift quasars to be part of our candidate sample. The created candidates are available for download at MNRAS or at http://www.astro.rub.de/polsterer/quasar-candidates.csv.
Lee, Kyu Ha; Tadesse, Mahlet G; Baccarelli, Andrea A; Schwartz, Joel; Coull, Brent A
2017-03-01
The analysis of multiple outcomes is becoming increasingly common in modern biomedical studies. It is well-known that joint statistical models for multiple outcomes are more flexible and more powerful than fitting a separate model for each outcome; they yield more powerful tests of exposure or treatment effects by taking into account the dependence among outcomes and pooling evidence across outcomes. It is, however, unlikely that all outcomes are related to the same subset of covariates. Therefore, there is interest in identifying exposures or treatments associated with particular outcomes, which we term outcome-specific variable selection. In this work, we propose a variable selection approach for multivariate normal responses that incorporates not only information on the mean model, but also information on the variance-covariance structure of the outcomes. The approach effectively leverages evidence from all correlated outcomes to estimate the effect of a particular covariate on a given outcome. To implement this strategy, we develop a Bayesian method that builds a multivariate prior for the variable selection indicators based on the variance-covariance of the outcomes. We show via simulation that the proposed variable selection strategy can boost power to detect subtle effects without increasing the probability of false discoveries. We apply the approach to the Normative Aging Study (NAS) epigenetic data and identify a subset of five genes in the asthma pathway for which gene-specific DNA methylations are associated with exposures to either black carbon, a marker of traffic pollution, or sulfate, a marker of particles generated by power plants. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.
Applying Bayesian Item Selection Approaches to Adaptive Tests Using Polytomous Items
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Penfield, Randall D.
2006-01-01
This study applied the maximum expected information (MEI) and the maximum posterior-weighted information (MPI) approaches of computer adaptive testing item selection to the case of a test using polytomous items following the partial credit model. The MEI and MPI approaches are described. A simulation study compared the efficiency of ability…
Dusty Quasars at High Redshifts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Weedman, Daniel; Sargsyan, Lusine
2016-09-01
A population of quasars at z ˜ 2 is determined based on dust luminosities νL ν (7.8 μm) that includes unobscured, partially obscured, and obscured quasars. Quasars are classified by the ratio νL ν (0.25 μm)/νL ν (7.8 μm) = UV/IR, assumed to measure obscuration of UV luminosity by the dust that produces IR luminosity. Quasar counts at rest-frame 7.8 μm are determined for quasars in the Boötes field of the NOAO Deep Wide Field Survey using 24 μm sources with optical redshifts from the AGN and Galaxy Evolution Survey (AGES) or infrared redshifts from the Spitzer Infrared Spectrograph. Spectral energy distributions are extended to far-infrared wavelengths using observations from the Herschel Space Observatory Spectral and Photometric Imaging Receiver (SPIRE), and new SPIRE photometry is presented for 77 high-redshift quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. It is found that unobscured and obscured quasars have similar space densities at rest-frame 7.8 μm, but the ratio L ν (100 μm)/L ν (7.8 μm) is about three times higher for obscured quasars than for unobscured, so that far-infrared or submillimeter quasar detections are dominated by obscured quasars. We find that only ˜5% of high-redshift submillimeter sources are quasars and that existing 850 μm surveys or 2 mm surveys should already have detected sources at z ˜ 10 if quasar and starburst luminosity functions remain the same from z = 2 until z = 10.
The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Quasar Catalog: Twelfth data release
Pâris, Isabelle; Petitjean, Patrick; Ross, Nicholas P.; ...
2017-01-05
In this paper, we present the Data Release 12 Quasar catalog (DR12Q) from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey III. This catalog includes all SDSS-III/BOSS objects that were spectroscopically targeted as quasar candidates during the full survey and that are confirmed as quasars via visual inspection of the spectra, have luminosities Mi [z = 2] < -20.5 (in a ΛCDM cosmology with H0 = 70 km s-1 Mpc-1, ΩM = 0.3, and ΩΛ = 0.7), and either display at least one emission line with a full width at half maximum (FWHM) larger than 500more » km s-1 or, if not, have interesting/complex absorption features. The catalog also includes previously known quasars (mostly from SDSS-I and II) that were reobserved by BOSS. The catalog contains 297 301 quasars (272 026 are new discoveries since the beginning of SDSS-III) detected over 9376 deg2 with robust identification and redshift measured by a combination of principal component eigenspectra. The number of quasars with z > 2.15 (184 101, of which 167 742 are new discoveries) is about an order of magnitude greater than the number of z > 2.15 quasars known prior to BOSS. Redshifts and FWHMs are provided for the strongest emission lines (C iv, C iii], Mg ii). The catalog identifies 29 580 broad absorption line quasars and lists their characteristics. For each object, the catalog presents five-band (u, g, r, i, z) CCD-based photometry with typical accuracy of 0.03 mag together with some information on the optical morphology and the selection criteria. When available, the catalog also provides information on the optical variability of quasars using SDSS and Palomar Transient Factory multi-epoch photometry. The catalog also contains X-ray, ultraviolet, near-infrared, and radio emission properties of the quasars, when available, from other large-area surveys. The calibrated digital spectra, covering the wavelength region 3600–10 500 Å at a spectral resolution in the range 1300 < R < 2500
The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Quasar Catalog: Twelfth data release
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pâris, Isabelle; Petitjean, Patrick; Ross, Nicholas P.; Myers, Adam D.; Aubourg, Éric; Streblyanska, Alina; Bailey, Stephen; Armengaud, Éric; Palanque-Delabrouille, Nathalie; Yèche, Christophe; Hamann, Fred; Strauss, Michael A.; Albareti, Franco D.; Bovy, Jo; Bizyaev, Dmitry; Niel Brandt, W.; Brusa, Marcella; Buchner, Johannes; Comparat, Johan; Croft, Rupert A. C.; Dwelly, Tom; Fan, Xiaohui; Font-Ribera, Andreu; Ge, Jian; Georgakakis, Antonis; Hall, Patrick B.; Jiang, Linhua; Kinemuchi, Karen; Malanushenko, Elena; Malanushenko, Viktor; McMahon, Richard G.; Menzel, Marie-Luise; Merloni, Andrea; Nandra, Kirpal; Noterdaeme, Pasquier; Oravetz, Daniel; Pan, Kaike; Pieri, Matthew M.; Prada, Francisco; Salvato, Mara; Schlegel, David J.; Schneider, Donald P.; Simmons, Audrey; Viel, Matteo; Weinberg, David H.; Zhu, Liu
2017-01-01
We present the Data Release 12 Quasar catalog (DR12Q) from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey III. This catalog includes all SDSS-III/BOSS objects that were spectroscopically targeted as quasar candidates during the full survey and that are confirmed as quasars via visual inspection of the spectra, have luminosities Mi [z = 2] < -20.5 (in a ΛCDM cosmology with H0 = 70 km s-1 Mpc-1, ΩM = 0.3, and ΩΛ = 0.7), and either display at least one emission line with a full width at half maximum (FWHM) larger than 500 km s-1 or, if not, have interesting/complex absorption features. The catalog also includes previously known quasars (mostly from SDSS-I and II) that were reobserved by BOSS. The catalog contains 297 301 quasars (272 026 are new discoveries since the beginning of SDSS-III) detected over 9376 deg2 with robust identification and redshift measured by a combination of principal component eigenspectra. The number of quasars with z > 2.15 (184 101, of which 167 742 are new discoveries) is about an order of magnitude greater than the number of z > 2.15 quasars known prior to BOSS. Redshifts and FWHMs are provided for the strongest emission lines (C iv, C iii], Mg ii). The catalog identifies 29 580 broad absorption line quasars and lists their characteristics. For each object, the catalog presents five-band (u, g, r, i, z) CCD-based photometry with typical accuracy of 0.03 mag together with some information on the optical morphology and the selection criteria. When available, the catalog also provides information on the optical variability of quasars using SDSS and Palomar Transient Factory multi-epoch photometry. The catalog also contains X-ray, ultraviolet, near-infrared, and radio emission properties of the quasars, when available, from other large-area surveys. The calibrated digital spectra, covering the wavelength region 3600-10 500 Å at a spectral resolution in the range 1300 < R < 2500, can be retrieved from
The Clustering of Quasars at Redshift 2.5 from the Final SDSS-III/BOSS Sample
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Eftekharzadeh, Sarah; Myers, Adam D.; White, Martin; Bovy, Jo; Fan, Xiaohui; Le Goff, Jean-Marc; Laurent, Pierre; McBride, Cameron; Miralda-Escude, Jordi; Palanque-Delabrouille, Nathalie; Petitjean, Patrick; Ross, Nicholas P.; Schneider, Donald P.; Shen, Yue; Strauss, Michael A.; Streblyanska, Alina; Weinberg, David H.; Wood-Vasey, W. Michael; Viel, Matteo; Yeche, Christophe; York, Don; Zehavi, Idit
2014-06-01
Measuring the mass of the dark matter halos that host quasars is a critical question in the field of galaxy evolution. Estimates of how the mean mass of the dark matter halos in which quasars are triggered evolves with time can potentially constrain scenarios in which the quasar phase is triggered in different dark-matter environments as the Universe progresses. Quasar clustering measurements on linear scales across a range of redshifts is a powerful tool with which to estimate the masses of the dark matter halos that are inhabited by the galaxies that host quasars. Although there are many measurements of quasar clustering at redshift z < 2.2, and a few at z > 3, there are very few precise measurements around 2.5, where the quasar phase appears to peak before declining at z < 2. The SDSS-III/BOSS survey targets redshifts of 2.2 < z < 3.5, and should therefore offer the most precise estimates of quasar clustering near the epoch of peak quasar activity. We use data from SDSS-III/BOSS to measure the clustering of quasars over the redshift range 2.2 < z < 2.8 via the real and redshift space two point correlation functions. The data consists of a homogeneously selected sample of 62960 BOSS CORE quasars drawn from SDSS DR11. Our homogeneous sample covers ~4460 (deg)^2 corresponding to a comoving volume of ~12 (Gpc/h)^3. We obtain the correlation length of quasars near 2.5 and derive the bias of the dark matter halos that host quasars. We study the mass of the dark matter environments of quasars using the formalism of the Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD). We will discuss our results at 2.5, and also results obtained by dividing the BOSS quasar sample into three redshift ranges to study how the correlation length, bias, and dark matter halo mass of quasars evolve over this key redshift range.
Inada, N; Oguri, M; Becker, R H; Shin, M; Richards, G T; Hennawi, J F; White, R L; Pindor, B; Strauss, M A; Kochanek, C S; Johnston, D E; Gregg, M D; Kayo, I; Eisenstein, D; Hall, P B; Castander, F J; Clocchiatti, A; Chiu, K; Kawano, Y; Scranton, R; Frieman, J; Keeton, C R; Morokuma, T; Rix, H; Turner, E L; Burless, S; Brunner, R J; Sheldon, E S; Bahcall, N A; Fukugita, M
2007-09-13
We report the first results of our systematic search for strongly lensed quasars using the spectroscopically confirmed quasars in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). Among 46,420 quasars from the SDSS Data Release 3 ({approx}4188 deg{sup 2}), we select a subsample of 22,683 quasars that are located at redshifts between 0.6 and 2.2 and are brighter than the Galactic extinction corrected i-band magnitude of 19.1. We identify 220 lens candidates from the quasar subsample, for which we conduct extensive and systematic follow-up observations in optical and near-infrared wavebands, in order to construct a complete lensed quasar sample at image separations between 1-inch and 20-inch and flux ratios of faint to bright lensed images larger than 10{sup -0.5}. We construct a statistical sample of 11 lensed quasars. Ten of these are galaxy-scale lenses with small image separations ({approx} 1-inch - 2-inch) and one is a large separation (15-inch) system which is produced by a massive cluster of galaxies, representing the first statistical sample of lensed quasars including both galaxy- and cluster-scale lenses. The Data Release 3 spectroscopic quasars contain an additional 11 lensed quasars outside the statistical sample.
High-Redshift Quasars Found in Sloan Digital Sky Survey Commissioning Data
Fan, X.; Strauss, M.A.; Schneider, D.P.; Gunn, J.E.; Lupton, R.H.; Yanny, B.; Anderson, S.F.; Anderson, J.E. Jr.; Annis, J.; Bahcall, N.A.; Bakken, J.A.; Bastian, S.; Berman, E.; Boroski, W.N.; Briegel, C.; Briggs, J.W.; Brinkmann, J.; Carr, M.A.; Colestock, P.L.; Connolly, A.J.; Crocker, J.H.; Csabai, I. |; Davis, J.E.; and others
1999-07-01
We present photometric and spectroscopic observations of 15 high-redshift quasars (z{gt}3.6) discovered from {approximately}140 deg{sup 2} of five-color ({ital u}{prime}, {ital g}{prime}, {ital r}{prime}, {ital i}{prime}, and {ital z}{prime}) imaging data taken by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) during its commissioning phase. The quasars are selected by their distinctive colors in SDSS multicolor space. Four of the quasars have redshifts higher than 4.6 (z=4.63, 4.75, 4.90, and 5.00, the latter being the highest redshift quasar yet known). In addition, two previously known z{gt}4 objects were recovered from the data. The quasars all have i{sup *} {lt}20 and have luminosities comparable to that of 3C 273. The spectra of the quasars have similar features (strong, broad emission lines and substantial absorption blueward of the Ly{alpha} emission line) seen in previously known high-redshift quasars. Although the photometric accuracy and image quality fail to meet the final survey requirements, our success rate for identifying high-redshift quasars (17 quasars from 27 candidates) is much higher than that of previous multicolor surveys. However, the numbers of high-redshift quasars found is in close accord with the number density inferred from previous surveys. {copyright} {ital {copyright} 1999.} {ital The American Astronomical Society}
Quasars, clusters and cosmology
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dhanda, Neelam
PART A: Acceleration of the Universe and Modified Gravity: We study the power of next-generation galaxy cluster surveys (such as eROSITA and WFXT) in constraining the cosmological parameters and especially the growth history of the Universe, using the information from galaxy cluster redshift and mass-function evolution and from cluster power spectrum. We use the Fisher Matrix formalism to evaluate the potential for the galaxy cluster surveys to make predictions about cosmological parameters like the gravitational growth index gamma. The primary purpose of this study has been to check whether we can rule out one or the other of the underlying gravity theories in light of the present uncertainty of mass-observable relations and their scatter evolution. We found that these surveys will provide better constraints on various cosmological parameters even after we admit a lack of complete knowledge about the galaxy cluster structure, and when we combine the information from the cluster number count redshift and mass evolution with that from the cluster power spectrum. Based on this, we studied the ability of different surveys to constrain the growth history of the Universe. It was found that whereas eROSITA surveys will need strong priors on cluster structure evolution to conclusively rule out one or the other of the two gravity models, General Relativity and DGP Braneworld Gravity; WFXT surveys do hold the special promise of differentiating growth and telling us whether it is GR or not, with its wide-field survey having the ability to say so even with 99% confidence. PART B: Chemical Evolution in Quasars: We studied chemical evolution in the broad emission line region (BELR) of nitrogen rich quasars drawn from the SDSS Quasar Catalogue IV. Using tools of emission-line spectroscopy, we made detailed abundance measurements of ˜ 40 quasars and estimated their metallicities using the line-intensity ratio method. It was found that quasars with strong nitrogen lines are
Host Galaxies of Young Dust-Reddened Quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Urrutia, T.; Lacy, M.; Becker, R.; Glikman, E.
2009-10-01
We present results on a multiwavelength campaign to identify the nature of dust-reddened Type 1 quasars. These quasars were selected by matching FIRST, 2MASS and very red optical counterparts with r'-K > 5. We find a very high fraction of Low Ionization Broad Absorption Line Quasars (LoBALs) among AGN selected with this method, perhaps a sign of quasar feedback. From X-ray observations and Balmer decrement measurements, the obscuring dust is most likely located in a cold absorber such as the host galaxy, rather than from a torus near the AGN. Hubble ACS imaging of a sub-sample of these sources showed a very high fraction of interacting and merging systems. The quasars appear to be very young in which dust from the merging galaxies is still settling in. Spitzer IRS and MIPS data show star formation signatures and deep Silicate absorption features in these objects, but overall the quasar is the dominant source in the Mid-infrared.
Jiang Linhua; Fan Xiaohui; Bian Fuyan; Annis, James; Lin Huan; Chiu, Kuenley; Jester, Sebastian; Lupton, Robert H.; Strauss, Michael A.; Richards, Gordon T.; Malanushenko, Viktor; Malanushenko, Elena; Schneider, Donald P.
2009-07-15
We present the discovery of six new quasars at z {approx} 6 selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) southern survey, a deep imaging survey obtained by repeatedly scanning a stripe along the celestial equator. The six quasars are about 2 mag fainter than the luminous z {approx} 6 quasars found in the SDSS main survey and 1 mag fainter than the quasars reported in Paper I. Four of them comprise a complete flux-limited sample at 21 < z {sub AB} < 21.8 over an effective area of 195 deg{sup 2}. The other two quasars are fainter than z {sub AB} = 22 and are not part of the complete sample. The quasar luminosity function at z {approx} 6 is well described as a single power law {phi}(L {sub 1450}) {proportional_to} L {sup {beta}} {sub 1450} over the luminosity range -28 < M {sub 1450} < -25. The best-fitting slope {beta} varies from -2.6 to -3.1, depending on the quasar samples used, with a statistical error of 0.3-0.4. About 40% of the quasars discovered in the SDSS southern survey have very narrow Ly{alpha} emission lines, which may indicate small black hole masses and high Eddington luminosity ratios, and therefore short black hole growth timescales for these faint quasars at early epochs.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gates, David
2013-10-01
The QUAsi-Axisymmetric Research (QUASAR) stellarator is a new facility which can solve two critical problems for fusion, disruptions and steady-state, and which provides new insights into the role of magnetic symmetry in plasma confinement. If constructed it will be the only quasi-axisymmetric stellarator in the world. The innovative principle of quasi-axisymmetry (QA) will be used in QUASAR to study how ``tokamak-like'' systems can be made: 1) Disruption-free, 2) Steady-state with low recirculating power, while preserving or improving upon features of axisymmetric tokamaks, such as 1) Stable at high pressure simultaneous with 2) High confinement (similar to tokamaks), and 3) Scalable to a compact reactor Stellarator research is critical to fusion research in order to establish the physics basis for a magnetic confinement device that can operate efficiently in steady-state, without disruptions at reactor-relevant parameters. The two large stellarator experiments - LHD in Japan and W7-X under construction in Germany are pioneering facilities capable of developing 3D physics understanding at large scale and for very long pulses. The QUASAR design is unique in being QA and optimized for confinement, stability, and moderate aspect ratio (4.5). It projects to a reactor with a major radius of ~8 m similar to advanced tokamak concepts. It is striking that (a) the EU DEMO is a pulsed (~2.5 hour) tokamak with major R ~ 9 m and (b) the ITER physics scenarios do not presume steady-state behavior. Accordingly, QUASAR fills a critical gap in the world stellarator program. This work supported by DoE Contract No. DEAC02-76CH03073.
Bayesian model selection for incomplete data using the posterior predictive distribution.
Daniels, Michael J; Chatterjee, Arkendu S; Wang, Chenguang
2012-12-01
We explore the use of a posterior predictive loss criterion for model selection for incomplete longitudinal data. We begin by identifying a property that most model selection criteria for incomplete data should consider. We then show that a straightforward extension of the Gelfand and Ghosh (1998, Biometrika, 85, 1-11) criterion to incomplete data has two problems. First, it introduces an extra term (in addition to the goodness of fit and penalty terms) that compromises the criterion. Second, it does not satisfy the aforementioned property. We propose an alternative and explore its properties via simulations and on a real dataset and compare it to the deviance information criterion (DIC). In general, the DIC outperforms the posterior predictive criterion, but the latter criterion appears to work well overall and is very easy to compute unlike the DIC in certain classes of models for missing data.
Chekouo, Thierry; Stingo, Francesco C.; Doecke, James D.; Do, Kim-Anh
2015-01-01
Summary The availability of cross-platform, large-scale genomic data has enabled the investigation of complex biological relationships for many cancers. Identification of reliable cancer-related biomarkers requires the characterization of multiple interactions across complex genetic networks. MicroRNAs are small non-coding RNAs that regulate gene expression; however, the direct relationship between a microRNA and its target gene is difficult to measure. We propose a novel Bayesian model to identify microRNAs and their target genes that are associated with survival time by incorporating the microRNA regulatory network through prior distributions. We assume that biomarkers involved in regulatory networks are likely associated with survival time. We employ non-local prior distributions and a stochastic search method for the selection of biomarkers associated with the survival outcome. We use KEGG pathway information to incorporate correlated gene effects within regulatory networks. Using simulation studies, we assess the performance of our method, and apply it to experimental data of kidney renal cell carcinoma (KIRC) obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas. Our novel method validates previously identified cancer biomarkers and identifies biomarkers specific to KIRC progression that were not previously discovered. Using the KIRC data, we confirm that biomarkers involved in regulatory networks are more likely to be associated with survival time, showing connections in one regulatory network for five out of six such genes we identified. PMID:25639276
Nikooienejad, Amir; Wang, Wenyi; Johnson, Valen E.
2016-01-01
Motivation: The advent of new genomic technologies has resulted in the production of massive data sets. Analyses of these data require new statistical and computational methods. In this article, we propose one such method that is useful in selecting explanatory variables for prediction of a binary response. Although this problem has recently been addressed using penalized likelihood methods, we adopt a Bayesian approach that utilizes a mixture of non-local prior densities and point masses on the binary regression coefficient vectors. Results: The resulting method, which we call iMOMLogit, provides improved performance in identifying true models and reducing estimation and prediction error in a number of simulation studies. More importantly, its application to several genomic datasets produces predictions that have high accuracy using far fewer explanatory variables than competing methods. We also describe a novel approach for setting prior hyperparameters by examining the total variation distance between the prior distributions on the regression parameters and the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator under the null distribution. Finally, we describe a computational algorithm that can be used to implement iMOMLogit in ultrahigh-dimensional settings (p>>n) and provide diagnostics to assess the probability that this algorithm has identified the highest posterior probability model. Availability and implementation: Software to implement this method can be downloaded at: http://www.stat.tamu.edu/∼amir/code.html. Contact: wwang7@mdanderson.org or vjohnson@stat.tamu.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:26740524
Bayesian inference of genetic parameters and selection response for litter size components in pigs.
Blasco, A; Sorensen, D; Bidanel, J P
1998-01-01
Three contemporary lines were formed from the progeny of 50 French Large White sows. In the first line, gilts were selected for ovulation rate at puberty. In the second line, they were selected for prenatal survival of the first two parities, corrected for ovulation rate. The control constituted the third line. Ovulation rate at puberty was analyzed using an animal model with a batch effect. Prenatal survival was analyzed with a repeatability animal model that included batch and parity effects. Flat priors were used to represent vague previous knowledge about parity and batch effects. Additive and residual effects were represented assuming that they were a priori normally distributed. Variance components were assumed to follow either uniform or inverted chi-square distributions, a priori. The use of different priors did not affect the results substantially. Heritabilities for ovulation rate ranged from 0.32 to 0.39, and from 0.11 to 0.16 for prenatal survival, depending on the prior used. The mean of the marginal posterior distribution of response to four generations of selection ranged from 0.38 to 0.40 ova per generation, and from 1.1 to 1.3% of the mean survival rate for average survival per generation. PMID:9584104
First Discoveries of z > 6 Quasars with the DECam Legacy Survey and UKIRT Hemisphere Survey
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Feige; Fan, Xiaohui; Yang, Jinyi; Wu, Xue-Bing; Yang, Qian; Bian, Fuyan; McGreer, Ian D.; Li, Jiang-Tao; Li, Zefeng; Ding, Jiani; Dey, Arjun; Dye, Simon; Findlay, Joseph R.; Green, Richard; James, David; Jiang, Linhua; Lang, Dustin; Lawrence, Andy; Myers, Adam D.; Ross, Nicholas P.; Schlegel, David J.; Shanks, Tom
2017-04-01
We present the first discoveries from a survey of z ≳ 6 quasars using imaging data from the DECam Legacy Survey (DECaLS) in the optical, the UKIRT Deep Infrared Sky Survey (UKIDSS) and a preliminary version of the UKIRT Hemisphere Survey (UHS) in the near-IR, and ALLWISE in the mid-IR. DECaLS will image 9000 deg2 of sky down to z AB ˜ 23.0, and UKIDSS and UHS will map the northern sky at 0 < decl. < +60°, reaching J VEGA ˜ 19.6 (5-σ). The combination of these data sets allows us to discover quasars at redshift z ≳ 7 and to conduct a complete census of the faint quasar population at z ≳ 6. In this paper, we report on the selection method of our search, and on the initial discoveries of two new, faint z ≳ 6 quasars and one new z = 6.63 quasar in our pilot spectroscopic observations. The two new z ˜ 6 quasars are at z = 6.07 and z = 6.17 with absolute magnitudes at rest-frame wavelength 1450 Å being M 1450 = -25.83 and M 1450 = -25.76, respectively. These discoveries suggest that we can find quasars close to or fainter than the break magnitude of the Quasar Luminosity Function (QLF) at z ≳ 6. The new z = 6.63 quasar has an absolute magnitude of M 1450 = -25.95. This demonstrates the potential of using the combined DECaLS and UKIDSS/UHS data sets to find z ≳ 7 quasars. Extrapolating from previous QLF measurements, we predict that these combined data sets will yield ˜200 z ˜ 6 quasars to z AB < 21.5, ˜1000 z ˜ 6 quasars to z AB < 23, and ˜30 quasars at z > 6.5 to J VEGA < 19.5.
First Discoveries of z > 6 Quasars with the DECam Legacy Survey and UKIRT Hemisphere Survey
Wang, Feige; Fan, Xiaohui; Yang, Jinyi; ...
2017-04-11
In this paper, we present the first discoveries from a survey of z ≳ 6 quasars using imaging data from the DECam Legacy Survey (DECaLS) in the optical, the UKIRT Deep Infrared Sky Survey (UKIDSS) and a preliminary version of the UKIRT Hemisphere Survey (UHS) in the near-IR, and ALLWISE in the mid-IR. DECaLS will image 9000 deg2 of sky down to z AB ~ 23.0, and UKIDSS and UHS will map the northern sky at 0 < decl. < +60°, reaching J VEGA ~ 19.6 (5-σ). The combination of these data sets allows us to discover quasars at redshiftmore » z ≳ 7 and to conduct a complete census of the faint quasar population at z ≳ 6. In this paper, we report on the selection method of our search, and on the initial discoveries of two new, faint z ≳ 6 quasars and one new z = 6.63 quasar in our pilot spectroscopic observations. The two new z ~ 6 quasars are at z = 6.07 and z = 6.17 with absolute magnitudes at rest-frame wavelength 1450 Å being M 1450 = -25.83 and M 1450 = -25.76, respectively. These discoveries suggest that we can find quasars close to or fainter than the break magnitude of the Quasar Luminosity Function (QLF) at z ≳ 6. The new z = 6.63 quasar has an absolute magnitude of M 1450 = -25.95. This demonstrates the potential of using the combined DECaLS and UKIDSS/UHS data sets to find z ≳ 7 quasars. Finally, extrapolating from previous QLF measurements, we predict that these combined data sets will yield ~200 z ~ 6 quasars to z AB < 21.5, ~1000 z ~ 6 quasars to z AB < 23, and ~30 quasars at z > 6.5 to J VEGA < 19.5.« less
Wu Xuebing; Wang Ran; Bian Fuyan; Jiang Linhua; Fan Xiaohui; Schmidt, Kasper B.
2011-09-15
The identification of quasars in the redshift range 2.2 < z < 3 is known to be very inefficient because the optical colors of such quasars are indistinguishable from those of stars. Recent studies have proposed using optical variability or near-infrared (near-IR) colors to improve the identification of the missing quasars in this redshift range. Here we present a case study combining both methods. We select a sample of 70 quasar candidates from variables in Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Stripe 82, which are non-ultraviolet excess sources and have UKIDSS near-IR public data. They are clearly separated into two parts on the Y - K/g - z color-color diagram, and 59 of them meet or lie close to a newly proposed Y - K/g - z selection criterion for z < 4 quasars. Of these 59 sources, 44 were previously identified as quasars in SDSS DR7, and 35 of them are quasars at 2.2 < z < 3. We present spectroscopic observations of 14 of 15 remaining quasar candidates using the Bok 2.3 m telescope and the MMT 6.5 m telescope, and successfully identify all of them as new quasars at z = 2.36-2.88. We also apply this method to a sample of 643 variable quasar candidates with SDSS-UKIDSS nine-band photometric data selected from 1875 new quasar candidates in SDSS Stripe 82 given by Butler and Bloom based on the time-series selections, and find that 188 of them are probably new quasars with photometric redshifts at 2.2 < z < 3. Our results indicate that the combination of optical variability and optical/near-IR colors is probably the most efficient way to find 2.2 < z < 3 quasars and is very helpful for constructing a complete quasar sample. We discuss its implications for ongoing and upcoming large optical and near-IR sky surveys.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ye, M.; Elshall, A. S.; Tang, G.; Samani, S.
2016-12-01
Bayesian Model Evidence (BME) is the measure of the average fit of the model to data given all the parameter values that the model can take. By accounting for the trade-off between the model ability to reproduce the observation data and model complexity, BME estimates of candidate models are employed to calculate model weights, which are used for model selection and model averaging. This study shows that accurate estimation of the BME is important for penalizing models with more complexity. To improve the accuracy of BME estimation, we resort to Monte Carlo numerical estimators over semi-analytical solutions (such as Laplace approximations, BIC, KIC and other). This study examines prominent numerical estimators of BME that are the thermodynamic integration (TI), and the importance sampling methods of arithmetic mean (AM), harmonic mean (HM), and steppingstone sampling (SS). AM estimator (based on prior sampling) and HM estimator (based on posterior sampling) are straightforward to implement, yet they lead to under and over estimation, respectively. TI and SS improve beyond this by means of sampling multiple intermediate distributions that links the prior and the posterior, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). TI and SS are theoretically unbiased estimators that are mathematically rigorous. Yet a theoretically unbiased estimator could have large bias in practice arising from numerical implementation, because MCMC sampling errors of certain intermediate distributions can introduce bias. We propose an SS variant, namely the multiple one-steppingstone sampling (MOSS), which turns these intermediate stumbling "blocks" of SS into steppingstones toward BME estimation. Thus, MOSS is less sensitive to MCMC sampling errors. We evaluate these estimators using a problem of groundwater transport model selection. The modeling results show that SS and MOSS estimators gave the most accurate results. In addition, the results show that the magnitude of the estimation error is a
Bayesian model selection in logistic regression for the detection of adverse drug reactions.
Marbac, Matthieu; Tubert-Bitter, Pascale; Sedki, Mohammed
2016-11-01
Spontaneous adverse event reports have a high potential for detecting adverse drug reactions. However, due to their dimension, the analysis of such databases requires statistical methods. In this context, disproportionality measures can be used. Their main idea is to project the data onto contingency tables in order to measure the strength of associations between drugs and adverse events. However, due to the data projection, these methods are sensitive to the problem of coprescriptions and masking effects. Recently, logistic regressions have been used with a Lasso type penalty to perform the detection of associations between drugs and adverse events. On different examples, this approach limits the drawbacks of the disproportionality methods, but the choice of the penalty value is open to criticism while it strongly influences the results. In this paper, we propose to use a logistic regression whose sparsity is viewed as a model selection challenge. Since the model space is huge, a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm carries out the model selection by maximizing the BIC criterion. Thus, we avoid the calibration of penalty or threshold. During our application on the French pharmacovigilance database, the proposed method is compared to well-established approaches on a reference dataset, and obtains better rates of positive and negative controls. However, many signals (i.e., specific drug-event associations) are not detected by the proposed method. So, we conclude that this method should be used in parallel to existing measures in pharmacovigilance. Code implementing the proposed method is available at the following url: https://github.com/masedki/MHTrajectoryR.
Quasars and superconducting cosmic strings
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vilenkin, A.; Field, G. B.
1987-04-01
Loops of superconducting cosmic string acquire electrical currents in the magnetic fields of host galaxies and emit short bursts of highly directed electromagnetic radiation. The authors propose that the jets observed in quasars are formed by particles accelerated to relativistic energies by such bursts, and that the central engines of quasars are therefore loops of cosmic string.
The Extremes of Quasar Variability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stern, Daniel
2016-04-01
Variability is one of the key observational properties of quasars, and it can be used as a probe of their fueling, physics, and evolution. A new generation of synoptic sky surveys, in combination with the novel data analytics tools, offers unprecedented data sets for the studies of quasars in the time domain. I will illustrate this with examples from the Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey (CRTS), which has an open and growing archive of 500 million light curves, including 350,000 spectroscopically confirmed quasars, with the time baselines ranging from 10 minutes to 10 years. I will discuss a new approach to discover quasars using a combination of variability and mid-IR colors from WISE, which results in a catalog of over a million quasar candidates. I will then discuss quasars with extreme, anomolous light curves, including quasars that have gone through extreme brightening events over the past decade with concordant large changes in their spectroscopic properties. I will also discuss a small subset of quasars with periodic light curves which we interpret as a signature of close (milliparsec scale) supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries.
Modeling the Observability of Recoiling Black Holes as Offset Quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Blecha, Laura; Torrey, Paul; Vogelsberger, Mark; Genel, Shy; Springel, Volker; Sijacki, Debora; Snyder, Gregory; Bird, Simeon; Nelson, Dylan; Xu, Dandan; Hernquist, Lars
The merger of two supermassive black holes (SMBHs) imparts a gravitational-wave (GW) recoil kick to the remnant SMBH, which can even eject the SMBH from its host galaxy. An actively-accreting, recoiling SMBH may be observable as an offset quasar. Prior to the advent of a space-based GW observatory, detections of these offset quasars may offer the best chance for identifying recent SMBH mergers. Indeed, observational searches for recoiling quasars have already identified several promising candidates. However, systematic searches for recoils are currently hampered by large uncertainties regarding how often offset quasars should be observable and where they are most likely to be found. Motivated by this, we have developed a model for recoiling quasars in a cosmological framework, utilizing information about the progenitor galaxies from the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamic simulations. For the first time, we model the effects of BH spin alignment and recoil dynamics based on the gas-richness of host galaxies. We predict that if BH spins are not highly aligned, seeing-limited observations could resolve offset AGN, making them promising targets for all-sky surveys. The rarity of large broad-line offsets among SDSS quasars is likely due in part to selection effects but suggests that spin alignment plays a role in suppressing recoils. Nonetheless, in our most physically motivated model where alignment occurs only in gas-rich mergers, hundreds of offset AGN should be found in all-sky surveys. Our findings strongly motivate a dedicated search for recoiling AGN.
The Sloan Digital Sky Survey quasar catalog: ninth data release
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pâris, I.; Petitjean, P.; Aubourg, É.; Bailey, S.; Ross, N. P.; Myers, A. D.; Strauss, M. A.; Anderson, S. F.; Arnau, E.; Bautista, J.; Bizyaev, D.; Bolton, A. S.; Bovy, J.; Brandt, W. N.; Brewington, H.; Browstein, J. R.; Busca, N.; Capellupo, D.; Carithers, W.; Croft, R. A. C.; Dawson, K.; Delubac, T.; Ebelke, G.; Eisenstein, D. J.; Engelke, P.; Fan, X.; Filiz Ak, N.; Finley, H.; Font-Ribera, A.; Ge, J.; Gibson, R. R.; Hall, P. B.; Hamann, F.; Hennawi, J. F.; Ho, S.; Hogg, D. W.; Ivezić, Ž.; Jiang, L.; Kimball, A. E.; Kirkby, D.; Kirkpatrick, J. A.; Lee, K.-G.; Le Goff, J.-M.; Lundgren, B.; MacLeod, C. L.; Malanushenko, E.; Malanushenko, V.; Maraston, C.; McGreer, I. D.; McMahon, R. G.; Miralda-Escudé, J.; Muna, D.; Noterdaeme, P.; Oravetz, D.; Palanque-Delabrouille, N.; Pan, K.; Perez-Fournon, I.; Pieri, M. M.; Richards, G. T.; Rollinde, E.; Sheldon, E. S.; Schlegel, D. J.; Schneider, D. P.; Slosar, A.; Shelden, A.; Shen, Y.; Simmons, A.; Snedden, S.; Suzuki, N.; Tinker, J.; Viel, M.; Weaver, B. A.; Weinberg, D. H.; White, M.; Wood-Vasey, W. M.; Yèche, C.
2012-12-01
We present the Data Release 9 Quasar (DR9Q) catalog from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey III. The catalog includes all BOSS objects that were targeted as quasar candidates during the survey, are spectrocopically confirmed as quasars via visual inspection, have luminosities Mi[z = 2] < -20.5 (in a ΛCDM cosmology with H0 = 70 km s-1 Mpc-1, ΩM = 0.3, and ΩΛ = 0.7) and either display at least one emission line with full width at half maximum (FWHM) larger than 500 km s-1 or, if not, have interesting/complex absorption features. It includes as well, known quasars (mostly from SDSS-I and II) that were reobserved by BOSS. This catalog contains 87 822 quasars (78 086 are new discoveries) detected over 3275 deg2 with robust identification and redshift measured by a combination of principal component eigenspectra newly derived from a training set of 8632 spectra from SDSS-DR7. The number of quasars with z > 2.15 (61 931) is ~2.8 times larger than the number of z > 2.15 quasars previously known. Redshifts and FWHMs are provided for the strongest emission lines (C iv, C iii], Mg ii). The catalog identifies 7533 broad absorption line quasars and gives their characteristics. For each object the catalog presents five-band (u, g, r, i, z) CCD-based photometry with typical accuracy of 0.03 mag, and information on the morphology and selection method. The catalog also contains X-ray, ultraviolet, near-infrared, and radio emission properties of the quasars, when available, from other large-area surveys. The calibrated digital spectra cover the wavelength region 3600-10 500 Å at a spectral resolution in the range 1300 < R < 2500; the spectra can be retrieved from the SDSS Catalog Archive Server. We also provide a supplemental list of an additional 949 quasars that have been identified, among galaxy targets of the BOSS or among quasar targets after DR9 was frozen. Catalog is only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to cdsarc
Quasar probabilities and redshifts from WISE mid-IR through GALEX UV photometry
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
DiPompeo, M. A.; Bovy, J.; Myers, A. D.; Lang, D.
2015-09-01
Extreme deconvolution (XD) of broad-band photometric data can both separate stars from quasars and generate probability density functions for quasar redshifts, while incorporating flux uncertainties and missing data. Mid-infrared photometric colours are now widely used to identify hot dust intrinsic to quasars, and the release of all-sky WISE data has led to a dramatic increase in the number of IR-selected quasars. Using forced photometry on public WISE data at the locations of Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) point sources, we incorporate this all-sky data into the training of the XDQSOz models originally developed to select quasars from optical photometry. The combination of WISE and SDSS information is far more powerful than SDSS alone, particularly at z > 2. The use of SDSS+WISE photometry is comparable to the use of SDSS+ultraviolet+near-IR data. We release a new public catalogue of 5537 436 (total; 3874 639 weighted by probability) potential quasars with probability PQSO > 0.2. The catalogue includes redshift probabilities for all objects. We also release an updated version of the publicly available set of codes to calculate quasar and redshift probabilities for various combinations of data. Finally, we demonstrate that this method of selecting quasars using WISE data is both more complete and efficient than simple WISE colour-cuts, especially at high redshift. Our fits verify that above z ˜ 3 WISE colours become bluer than the standard cuts applied to select quasars. Currently, the analysis is limited to quasars with optical counterparts, and thus cannot be used to find highly obscured quasars that WISE colour-cuts identify in significant numbers.
Astrophysical applications of quasar microlensing
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mediavilla, E.; Jiménez-Vicente, J.; Muñoz, J. A.
2017-03-01
We present a quick overview of several examples that illustrate the application of quasar microlensing to various problems of great interest in Astrophysics and Cosmology. We start introducing the main tool for simulating quasar microlensing, the magnification map. Then, the flux magnification statistics obtained from the magnification maps is used to study the quasar accretion disk size and temperature profile with results that challenge the thin disk model. The microlensing flux magnification statistics is also useful to determine the radial slope of the dark matter distribution in lens galaxies. The extremely high microlensing magnification at caustics allows to scan with horizon scale accuracy the quasar accretion disk, spiraling around the central super massive black hole, resolving the innermost stable circular orbit. Finally, transverse peculiar velocities of the lens galaxies, of great interest in cosmology, can be inferred either counting peaks in the microlensing light curves or directly from astrometric measurements of the highly magnified relative motions between lensed quasar images.
Surveys of ultraviolet-excess quasar candidates in large fields
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gosset, E.; Moreau, O.; Surdej, J.; Swings, J.-P.; Arp, H. C.
1997-06-01
We describe the results of a survey for moderately bright quasars performed in a 20.6-square-degree field around the galaxy NGC 450. The quasar candidates were selected on the basis of their ultraviolet excess: by comparative visual inspection of the double image of each single object on a U/B dual-exposure Schmidt photographic plate, 95 primary and 45 secondary quasar candidates were selected on the basis of their $U$ image being too bright. The spectroscopic identification of the primary candidates led to the discovery of 59 bona fide quasars (out of which 6 were previously known). The Palomar Schmidt plate was digitised using the MAMA measuring machine and the outcoming data reduced using ad hoc procedures. A photometric calibration allowed us to derive values for the limiting magnitudes and for the U-B index selection threshold of the survey. A catalogue containing 60 quasars is presented with accurate positions, magnitudes and additional information such as redshifts. We studied the spatial distribution of the objects and detected, for the quasars of our sample, a significant deviation from randomness in the form of a propensity to cluster in pairs on the celestial sphere with a typical scale of about 10 arcmin. We also formally detected a tendency towards a 3-D clustering, but this result is induced by a single pair of quasars. A forthcoming paper will deal with a similar work performed in a field around NGC 520; the latter field is located directly to the North of the present one and slightly overlaps it. Based on observations acquired at the Mount Palomar and Las Campanas Observatories as well as at the European Southern Observatory. Also based on Schmidt-plate digitisations performed with the MAMA measuring machine of C.A.I. (I.N.S.U., Paris).
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Arav, Nahum
2002-01-01
The main aim of this research program is to determine the ionization equilibrium and abundances in quasar outflows. Especially in the broad absorption line QSO PG 0946+301. We find that the outflow's metalicity is consistent with being solar, while the abundance ratio of phosphorus to other metals is at least ten times solar. These findings are based on diagnostics that are not sensitive to saturation and partial covering effects in the BALs (Broad Adsorption Lines), which considerably weakened previous claims for enhanced metalicity. Ample evidence for these effects is seen in the spectrum.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Arav, Nahum
2002-01-01
The main aim of this research program is to determine the ionization equilibrium and abundances in quasar outflows. Especially in the broad absorption line QSO PG 0946+301. We find that the outflow's metalicity is consistent with being solar, while the abundance ratio of phosphorus to other metals is at least ten times solar. These findings are based on diagnostics that are not sensitive to saturation and partial covering effects in the BALs (Broad Adsorption Lines), which considerably weakened previous claims for enhanced metalicity. Ample evidence for these effects is seen in the spectrum.
THE SLOAN DIGITAL SKY SURVEY QUASAR LENS SEARCH. V. FINAL CATALOG FROM THE SEVENTH DATA RELEASE
Inada, Naohisa; Oguri, Masamune; Kayo, Issha; Fukugita, Masataka; Shin, Min-Su; Strauss, Michael A.; Bahcall, Neta A.; Morokuma, Tomoki; Rusu, Cristian E.; Kochanek, Christopher S.; Richards, Gordon T.; Schneider, Donald P.; York, Donald G.; Frieman, Joshua A.; Hall, Patrick B.; White, Richard L.
2012-05-15
We present the final statistical sample of lensed quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Quasar Lens Search (SQLS). The well-defined statistical lens sample consists of 26 lensed quasars brighter than i = 19.1 and in the redshift range of 0.6 < z < 2.2 selected from 50,826 spectroscopically confirmed quasars in the SDSS Data Release 7 (DR7), where we restrict the image separation range to 1'' < {theta} < 20'' and the i-band magnitude differences in two images to be smaller than 1.25 mag. The SDSS DR7 quasar catalog also contains 36 additional lenses identified with various techniques. In addition to these lensed quasars, we have identified 81 pairs of quasars from follow-up spectroscopy, 26 of which are physically associated binary quasars. The statistical lens sample covers a wide range of image separations, redshifts, and magnitudes, and therefore is suitable for systematic studies of cosmological parameters and surveys of the structure and evolution of galaxies and quasars.
Discovery of eight z ∼ 6 quasars from Pan-STARRS1
Bañados, E.; Venemans, B. P.; Morganson, E.; Decarli, R.; Walter, F.; Rix, H.-W.; Farina, E. P.; Chambers, K. C.; Morgan, J. S.; Burgett, W. S.; Kaiser, N.; Kudritzki, R.-P.; Fan, X.; McGreer, I.; Jiang, L.; De Rosa, G.; Simcoe, R.; Weiß, A.; Price, P. A.; Greiner, J.; and others
2014-07-01
High-redshift quasars are currently the only probes of the growth of supermassive black holes and potential tracers of structure evolution at early cosmic time. Here we present our candidate selection criteria from the Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System 1 and follow-up strategy to discover quasars in the redshift range 5.7 ≲ z ≲ 6.2. With this strategy we discovered eight new 5.7 ≤ z ≤ 6.0 quasars, increasing the number of known quasars at z > 5.7 by more than 10%. We additionally recovered 18 previously known quasars. The eight quasars presented here span a large range of luminosities (–27.3 ≤ M {sub 1450} ≤ –25.4; 19.6 ≤ z {sub P1} ≤ 21.2) and are remarkably heterogeneous in their spectral features: half of them show bright emission lines whereas the other half show a weak or no Lyα emission line (25% with rest-frame equivalent width of the Lyα +N V line lower than 15 Å). We find a larger fraction of weak-line emission quasars than in lower redshift studies. This may imply that the weak-line quasar population at the highest redshifts could be more abundant than previously thought. However, larger samples of quasars are needed to increase the statistical significance of this finding.
The Cluster Environments of Quasar Groups
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
West, Michael; Gregg, Michael; Toller, Justin
2017-01-01
Quasars are rare astronomical objects, and quasar pairs, triplets and larger groupings are even rarer. The presence of several quasars in the same small volume of space might therefore indicate a region that is exceptionally rich in galaxies, and hence groups of quasars could serve as ueful beacons for identifying distant clusters or protoclusters of galaxies. With this motivation, we compare the cluster environments of single versus multiple quasar systems using data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey.
2014-01-01
Background For many molecularly targeted agents, the probability of response may be assumed to either increase or increase and then plateau in the tested dose range. Therefore, identifying the maximum effective dose, defined as the lowest dose that achieves a pre-specified target response and beyond which improvement in the response is unlikely, becomes increasingly important. Recently, a class of Bayesian designs for single-arm phase II clinical trials based on hypothesis tests and nonlocal alternative prior densities has been proposed and shown to outperform common Bayesian designs based on posterior credible intervals and common frequentist designs. We extend this and related approaches to the design of phase II oncology trials, with the goal of identifying the maximum effective dose among a small number of pre-specified doses. Methods We propose two new Bayesian designs with continuous monitoring of response rates across doses to identify the maximum effective dose, assuming monotonicity of the response rate across doses. The first design is based on Bayesian hypothesis tests. To determine whether each dose level achieves a pre-specified target response rate and whether the response rates between doses are equal, multiple statistical hypotheses are defined using nonlocal alternative prior densities. The second design is based on Bayesian model averaging and also uses nonlocal alternative priors. We conduct simulation studies to evaluate the operating characteristics of the proposed designs, and compare them with three alternative designs. Results In terms of the likelihood of drawing a correct conclusion using similar between-design average sample sizes, the performance of our proposed design based on Bayesian hypothesis tests and nonlocal alternative priors is more robust than that of the other designs. Specifically, the proposed Bayesian hypothesis test-based design has the largest probability of being the best design among all designs under comparison and
Measuring quasar variability with Pan-STARRS1 and SDSS
Morganson, E.; Rix, H.-W.; Schlafly, E. F.; Walter, F.; Burgett, W. S.; Chambers, K. C.; Kaiser, N.; Magnier, E. A.; Morgan, J. S.; Tonry, J. L.; Green, P. J.; Marshall, P. J.; Price, P. A.
2014-04-01
We measure quasar variability using the Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System 1 Survey (Pan-STARRS1 or PS1) and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and establish a method of selecting quasars via their variability in 10{sup 4} deg{sup 2} surveys. We use 10{sup 5} spectroscopically confirmed quasars that have been well measured in both PS1 and SDSS and take advantage of the decadal timescales that separate SDSS measurements and PS1 measurements. A power law model fits the data well over the entire time range tested, 0.01-10 yr. Variability in the current PS1-SDSS data set can efficiently distinguish between quasars and nonvarying objects. It improves the purity of a griz quasar color cut from 4.1% to 48% while maintaining 67% completeness. Variability will be very effective at finding quasars in data sets with no u band and in redshift ranges where exclusively photometric selection is not efficient. We show that quasars' rest-frame ensemble variability, measured as a root mean squared in Δ magnitudes, is consistent with V(z, L, t) = A {sub 0}(1 + z){sup 0.37}(L/L {sub 0}){sup –0.16}(t/1 yr){sup 0.246}, where L {sub 0} = 10{sup 46} erg s{sup –1} and A {sub 0} = 0.190, 0.162, 0.147, or 0.141 in the g {sub P1}, r {sub P1}, i {sub P1}, or z {sub P1}filter, respectively. We also fit across all four filters and obtain median variability as a function of z, L, and λ as V(z, L, λ, t) = 0.079(1 + z){sup 0.15}(L/L {sub 0}){sup –0.2}(λ/1000 nm){sup –0.44}(t/1 yr){sup 0.246}.
Distribution and evolution of quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nasiri, S.; Rezania, V.
In this paper we investigate: a) The evolution of quasars on the basis of gravitational contraction model of proto-galaxies. This is done by studying the number density of quasars given by Veron catalogue [1] in different luminosity classes. The order of classes increase with increasing the luminosity of corresponding quasars. It is shown that the ``decay'' of quasars is more sensible to their luminosities as expected by assuming that they are evolved from the contraction of slowly rotating proto-galaxies. The role of the angular momentum in the evolution of galaxies is emphasized by the results obtained from the size-luminosity relation of about 40,000 normal galaxies given by LEDA database [2]. In the model mentioned above the normal galaxies are assumed to be evolved from the contraction of relatively fast rotating proto-galaxies. b) The filamentary structures and voids of the large scale universe by plotting the entire sky map of quasars in the galactic coordinate. This is done by assuming that these objects are at cosmological distances. The result seems to show some spatial correlations of quasars distribution. References: 1. Veron, M. P. and Veron, P., ``A catalogue of quasars and active nuclei'', 5th edition, Scientific report, European Southern Observatory, No. 10, 1991. 2. Paturel, G., Bottinelli, L., Di Nella, H., Durand, N., Garnier, R., Gouguenheim, L., Marthinet, M. C., petit, C., Rousseau, J., Therreau, G., Vauglin, L., ``Lyon-Meudon Extragalctic Database (LEDA), For 100,000 galaxies'', Observatoire de Lyon, 1996.
NuSTAR Observations of Reddened Quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
LaMassa, Stephanie M.; Ricarte, Angelo; Glikman, Eilat; Urry, C. Megan; Stern, Daniel; Yaqoob, Tahir; Lansbury, George; Civano, Francesca M.; Boggs, Steven E.; Brandt, W. Niel; Chen, Chien-Ting J.; Christensen, Finn; Craig, William W.; Hailey, Charles James; Harrison, Fiona; Hickox, Ryan C.; Koss, Michael; Ricci, Claudio; Treister, Ezequiel; Zhang, William
2016-04-01
Reddened quasars selected from the FIRST and 2MASS surveys appear to be in a transitional link in the merger-induced black hole growth/galaxy evolution model. We present the NuSTAR and XMM-Newton/Chandra observations of 2 FIRST-2MASS red quasars, F2M 0830+3759 and F2M 1227+3214. The combination of broad-band X-ray coverage and physically-motivated spectral models allow us to characterize the X-ray obscuration in these systems. We find that much heavier obscuration is present globally than along the line-of-sight for F2M 0830+3759, and that F2M 1227+3214 may also have much higher amounts of global versus line-of-sight obscuration. These results are consistent with the paradigm that red quasars are evacuating their heavy cocoon of dust and gas, unveiling the central nucleus while higher column densities of gas are present globally, playing a role in reprocessing the intrinsic emission.
Thermal phases of interstellar and quasar gas
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lepp, S.; Mccray, R.; Shull, J. M.; Woods, D. T.; Kallman, T.
1985-01-01
Interstellar gas may be in a variety of thermal phases, depending on how it is heated and ionized; here a unified picture of the equation of state of interstellar and quasar gas is presented for a variety of such mechanisms over a broad range of temperatures, densities, and column densities of absorbing matter. It is found that for select ranges of gas pressure, photoionizing flux, and heating, three thermally stable phases are allowed: coronal gas (T above 100,000 K); warm gas (T about 10,000 K); and cold gas (T less than 100 K). With attenuation of ultraviolet and X-ray radiation, the cold phase may undergo a transition to molecules. In quasar broad-line clouds, this transition occurs at column density N(H) = about 10 to the 23rd/sq cm and could result in warm molecular cores and observable emission from H2 and OH. The underlying atomic physics behind each of these phase transitions and their relevance to interstellar matter and quasars are discussed.
The WISSH quasars project. I. Powerful ionised outflows in hyper-luminous quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bischetti, M.; Piconcelli, E.; Vietri, G.; Bongiorno, A.; Fiore, F.; Sani, E.; Marconi, A.; Duras, F.; Zappacosta, L.; Brusa, M.; Comastri, A.; Cresci, G.; Feruglio, C.; Giallongo, E.; La Franca, F.; Mainieri, V.; Mannucci, F.; Martocchia, S.; Ricci, F.; Schneider, R.; Testa, V.; Vignali, C.
2017-02-01
Models and observations suggest that both the power and effects of AGN feedback should be maximised in hyper-luminous (LBol > 1047 erg s-1) quasars, i.e. objects at the brightest end of the AGN luminosity function. In this paper, we present the first results of a multiwavelength observing programme, focusing on a sample of WISE/SDSS selected hyper-luminous (WISSH) broad-line quasars at z ≈ 1.5-5. The WISSH quasars project has been designed to reveal the most energetic AGN-driven outflows, estimate their occurrence at the peak of quasar activity, and extend the study of correlations between outflows and nuclear properties up to poorly investigated, extreme AGN luminosities, i.e. LBol 1047 - 1048 erg s-1. We present near-infrared, long-slit LBT/LUCI1 spectroscopy of five WISSH quasars at z ≈ 2.3 - 3.5, showing prominent [OIII] emission lines with broad (FWHM 1200-2200 km s-1) and skewed profiles. The luminosities of these broad [OIII] wings are the highest measured so far, with L[OIII]broad ≳ 5 × 1044 erg s-1, and reveal the presence of powerful ionised outflows with associated mass outflow rates Ṁ ≳ 1700M⊙ yr-1 and kinetic powers Ėkin ≳ 1045 erg s-1. Although these estimates are affected by large uncertainties because of the use of [OIII] as a tracer of ionised outflows and the very basic outflow model adopted here, these results suggest that in our hyper-luminous targets the AGN is highly efficient at pushing large amounts of ionised gas outwards. Furthermore, the mechanical outflow luminosities measured for WISSH quasars correspond to higher percentages ( 1-3%) of LBol than those derived for AGN with lower LBol. Our targets host very massive (MBH ≳ 2 × 109M⊙) black holes that are still accreting at a high rate (i.e. a factor of 0.4-3 of the Eddington limit). These findings clearly demonstrate that WISSH quasars offer the opportunity to probe the extreme end of both luminosity and supermassive black holes (SMBH) mass functions and revealing
Data mining for gravitationally lensed quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Agnello, Adriano; Kelly, Brandon C.; Treu, Tommaso; Marshall, Philip J.
2015-04-01
Gravitationally lensed quasars are brighter than their unlensed counterparts and produce images with distinctive morphological signatures. Past searches and target-selection algorithms, in particular the Sloan Quasar Lens Search (SQLS), have relied on basic morphological criteria, which were applied to samples of bright, spectroscopically confirmed quasars. The SQLS techniques are not sufficient for searching into new surveys (e.g. DES, PS1, LSST), because spectroscopic information is not readily available and the large data volume requires higher purity in target/candidate selection. We carry out a systematic exploration of machine-learning techniques and demonstrate that a two-step strategy can be highly effective. In the first step, we use catalogue-level information (griz+WISE magnitudes, second moments) to pre-select targets, using artificial neural networks. The accepted targets are then inspected with pixel-by-pixel pattern recognition algorithms (gradient-boosted trees), to form a final set of candidates. The results from this procedure can be used to further refine the simpler SQLS algorithms, with a twofold (or threefold) gain in purity and the same (or 80 per cent) completeness at target-selection stage, or a purity of 70 per cent and a completeness of 60 per cent after the candidate-selection step. Simpler photometric searches in griz+WISE based on colour cuts would provide samples with 7 per cent purity or less. Our technique is extremely fast, as a list of candidates can be obtained from a Stage III experiment (e.g. DES catalogue/data base) in a few CPU hours. The techniques are easily extendable to Stage IV experiments like LSST with the addition of time domain information.
X-RAY ABSORPTION OF HIGH-REDSHIFT QUASARS
Eitan, Assaf; Behar, Ehud E-mail: behar@physics.technion.ac.il
2013-09-01
The soft X-ray photoelectric absorption of high-z quasars has been known for two decades, but has no unambiguous astrophysical context. We construct the largest sample to date of 58 high-redshift quasars (z > 0.45) selected from the XMM-Newton archive based on a high photon count criterion (>1800). We measure the optical depth {tau} at 0.5 keV and find that 43% of the quasars show significant absorption. We aim to find which physical parameters of the quasars, e.g., redshift, radio luminosity, radio loudness, or X-ray luminosity, drive their observed absorption. We compare the absorption behavior with redshift with the pattern expected if the diffuse intergalactic medium (IGM) is responsible for the observed absorption. We also compare the absorption with a comparison sample of gamma-ray burst (GRB) X-ray afterglows. Although the z > 2 quasar opacity is consistent with diffuse IGM absorption, many intermediate-z (0.45 < z < 2) quasars are not sufficiently absorbed for this scenario, and are appreciably less absorbed than GRBs. Only 10/37 quasars at z < 2 are absorbed, and only 5/30 radio-quiet quasars are absorbed. We find a weak correlation between {tau} and z, and an even weaker correlation between {tau} and radio luminosity. These findings lead to the conclusion that although a diffuse IGM origin for the quasar absorption is unlikely, the optical depth does seem to increase with redshift, roughly as (1 + z){sup 2.2{+-}0.6}, tending to {tau} Almost-Equal-To 0.4 at high redshifts, similar to the high-z GRBs. This result can be explained by an ionized and clumpy IGM at z < 2, and a cold, diffuse IGM at higher redshift. If, conversely, the absorption occurs at the quasar, and owing to the steep L{sub x} {proportional_to}(1 + z){sup 7.1{+-}0.5} correlation in the present sample, the host column density scales as N{sub H}{proportional_to}L{sub x}{sup 0.7{+-}0.1}.
Long-term variability of a complete sample of quasars
Cristiani, S.; Vio, R.; Andreani, P. )
1990-07-01
The long-term variability of a complete sample of quasars selected in the field of the SA 94 has been investigated. Using Schmidt plates covering a time baseline of seven years, about one-third of the quasars are found to be variable. It is suggested that all the quasi-stellar objects are variable with amplitudes of a few tenths of a magnitude on timescales of the order of some years in their restframes. The application of the variability technique to the selection of complete samples of quasars is discussed. The timescales estimated can be easily accounted for in the accreting black hole with thermal and viscous timescales. The variability is found to be correlated with the absolute magnitude and/or the redshift. 21 refs.
Clustering of quasars in SDSS-IV eBOSS: study of potential systematics and bias determination
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Laurent, Pierre; Eftekharzadeh, Sarah; Le Goff, Jean-Marc; Myers, Adam; Burtin, Etienne; White, Martin; Ross, Ashley J.; Tinker, Jeremy; Tojeiro, Rita; Bautista, Julian; Brinkmann, Jonathan; Comparat, Johan; Dawson, Kyle; du Mas des Bourboux, Hélion; Kneib, Jean-Paul; McGreer, Ian D.; Palanque-Delabrouille, Nathalie; Percival, Will J.; Prada, Francisco; Rossi, Graziano; Schneider, Donald P.; Weinberg, David; Yèche, Christophe; Zarrouk, Pauline; Zhao, Gong-Bo
2017-07-01
We study the first year of the eBOSS quasar sample in the redshift range 0.9
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chartas, George
2003-01-01
We report on an observation of the broad absorption line (BAL) quasar PG 1115+080 performed with the XMM-Newton observatory. Spectral analysis reveals the second case of a relativistic X-ray-absorbing outflow in a BAL quasar. The first case was revealed in a recent observation of APM 08279+5255 with the Chandra X-Ray Observatory. As in the case of APM 08279+5255, the observed flux of PG 1115+080 is greatly magnified by gravitational lensing. The relatively high redshift (z=1.72) of the quasar places the redshifted energies of resonant absorption features in a sensitive portion of the XMM- Newton spectral response. The spectrum indicates the presence of complex low-energy absorption in the 0.2-0.6 keV observed energy band and high-energy absorption in the 2-5 keV observed energy band. The high-energy absorption is best modeled by two Gaussian absorption lines with rest-frame energies of 7.4 and 9.5 keV. Assuming that these two lines axe produced by resonant absorption due to Fe XXV, we infer that the X-ray absorbers are outflowing with velocities of approx. 0.10c and approx. 0.34c respectively. We have detected significant variability of the energies and widths of the X-ray BALs in PG 1115+080 and APM 08279+5255 over timescales of 19 and 1.8 weeks (proper time), respectively. The BAL variability observed from APM 08279+5255 supports our earlier conclusion that these absorbers are most likely launched at relatively small radii of less than 10(exp 16)(Mbh/M8)(sup 1/2) cm. A comparison of the ionization properties and column densities of the low-energy and high-energy absorbers indicates that these absorbers are likely distinct; however, higher spectral resolution is needed to confirm this result. Finally, we comment on prospects for constraining the kinematic and ionization properties of these X-ray BALs with the next generation of X-ray observatories.
The ISO View of Palomar-Green Quasars
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Haas, M.; Klaas, U.; Mueller, S. A. H.; Bertoldi, F.; Camenzind, M.; Chini, R.; Krause, O.; Lemke, D.; Meisenheimer; Richards, P. J.
2003-01-01
Mining the ISO data archive we provide the complete ISO view of PG quasars containing 64 infrared spectral energy distributions between 5 and 200 mu m. About half of the sample was supplemented by MAMBO and SCUBA (sub-)millimeter data. Since the PG quasars were selected optically, the high infrared detection rate of more than 80% suggests that every quasar possesses luminous to hyper-luminous dust emission with dust masses comparable to Seyferts and ultra-luminous IR galaxies (ULIRGs). The gas to-dust mass ratio (of those sources where CO measurements are available in the literature) is consistent with the galactic value providing further evidence for the thermal nature of the IR emission of radio quiet quasars. The SEDs represent templates of unprecedented detail and sensitivity. We suggest that the diversity of the SEDs reflects largely the evolution of the dust distribution, and we propose a classification of the SED shapes as well as an evolutionary scheme in which this variety can be understood. During the evolution the surrounding dust redistributes, settling more and more into a torus/disk like configuration, while the SEDs show an initial FIR bump, then an increasing MIR emission and a steeper near- to mid-infrared slope, both of which finally also decrease. Regarding cosmic evolution, our hyper-luminous quasars in the "local" universe at z=l do not show the hyper-luminous (LFIR >? 10(exp 13) L(sub sun)) starburst activity inferred for z=4 quasars detected in several (sub-)millimeter surveys. In view of several caveats this difference should be established further, but it already suggests that in the early dense universe stronger merger events led to more powerful starbursts accompanying the quasar phenomenon, while at later cosmic epochs any coeval starbursts obviously do not reach that high power and are outshone by the AGN. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.
The ISO View of Palomar-Green Quasars
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Haas, M.; Klaas, U.; Mueller, S. A. H.; Bertoldi, F.; Camenzind, M.; Chini, R.; Krause, O.; Lemke, D.; Meisenheimer; Richards, P. J.
2003-01-01
Mining the ISO data archive we provide the complete ISO view of PG quasars containing 64 infrared spectral energy distributions between 5 and 200 mu m. About half of the sample was supplemented by MAMBO and SCUBA (sub-)millimeter data. Since the PG quasars were selected optically, the high infrared detection rate of more than 80% suggests that every quasar possesses luminous to hyper-luminous dust emission with dust masses comparable to Seyferts and ultra-luminous IR galaxies (ULIRGs). The gas to-dust mass ratio (of those sources where CO measurements are available in the literature) is consistent with the galactic value providing further evidence for the thermal nature of the IR emission of radio quiet quasars. The SEDs represent templates of unprecedented detail and sensitivity. We suggest that the diversity of the SEDs reflects largely the evolution of the dust distribution, and we propose a classification of the SED shapes as well as an evolutionary scheme in which this variety can be understood. During the evolution the surrounding dust redistributes, settling more and more into a torus/disk like configuration, while the SEDs show an initial FIR bump, then an increasing MIR emission and a steeper near- to mid-infrared slope, both of which finally also decrease. Regarding cosmic evolution, our hyper-luminous quasars in the "local" universe at z=l do not show the hyper-luminous (LFIR >? 10(exp 13) L(sub sun)) starburst activity inferred for z=4 quasars detected in several (sub-)millimeter surveys. In view of several caveats this difference should be established further, but it already suggests that in the early dense universe stronger merger events led to more powerful starbursts accompanying the quasar phenomenon, while at later cosmic epochs any coeval starbursts obviously do not reach that high power and are outshone by the AGN. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.
McGuire, Jimmy A; Witt, Christopher C; Altshuler, Douglas L; Remsen, J V
2007-10-01
Hummingbirds are an important model system in avian biology, but to date the group has been the subject of remarkably few phylogenetic investigations. Here we present partitioned Bayesian and maximum likelihood phylogenetic analyses for 151 of approximately 330 species of hummingbirds and 12 outgroup taxa based on two protein-coding mitochondrial genes (ND2 and ND4), flanking tRNAs, and two nuclear introns (AK1 and BFib). We analyzed these data under several partitioning strategies ranging between unpartitioned and a maximum of nine partitions. In order to select a statistically justified partitioning strategy following partitioned Bayesian analysis, we considered four alternative criteria including Bayes factors, modified versions of the Akaike information criterion for small sample sizes (AIC(c)), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and a decision-theoretic methodology (DT). Following partitioned maximum likelihood analyses, we selected a best-fitting strategy using hierarchical likelihood ratio tests (hLRTS), the conventional AICc, BIC, and DT, concluding that the most stringent criterion, the performance-based DT, was the most appropriate methodology for selecting amongst partitioning strategies. In the context of our well-resolved and well-supported phylogenetic estimate, we consider the historical biogeography of hummingbirds using ancestral state reconstructions of (1) primary geographic region of occurrence (i.e., South America, Central America, North America, Greater Antilles, Lesser Antilles), (2) Andean or non-Andean geographic distribution, and (3) minimum elevational occurrence. These analyses indicate that the basal hummingbird assemblages originated in the lowlands of South America, that most of the principle clades of hummingbirds (all but Mountain Gems and possibly Bees) originated on this continent, and that there have been many (at least 30) independent invasions of other primary landmasses, especially Central America.
Quasars in radio source catalogs
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hutchings, J. B.; Durand, D.; Pazder, J.
1991-01-01
A cross correlation between the Hewitt-Burbidge QSO catalog and the Dixon radio source catalog was performed. Two thousand ten position coincidences were found within about 60 arcsec, of which 23 are not noted as radio quasars in Hewitt-Burbidge. The accuracy of the radio source positions of various catalogs is examined, and the previously unidentified radio sources are discussed. An absence of radio quasars of low luminosity at redshifts greater than about 2.5 is noted.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lugger, Phyllis M.
2004-12-01
Asteroid dedication; William Liller: Biographical Sketch; William Liller: Autobiographical Meanderings; Preface; List of Participants; Conference Photo; Part I. 1. Solar System Astronomy: Asteroids Joseph Veverka; 2. Sixteen years of stellar occultations James Elliott; 3. Comets to Quasars: Surface photometry from standard stars and the morphology of the galaxy-quasar interface Peter Usher; 4. Observing Solar Eclipses Jay Pasachoff; Part II. 5. Planetary Nebulae: new insights and opportunities Lawrence Aller; 6. Studies of planetary nebulae at radio wavelengths Yervant Terzian; 7. Optical identifications of compact galactic X-ray sources: Liller Lore Jonathan Grindlay; 8. Ages of globular clusters derived from BVRI CCD photometry Gonzalo Alcaino; 9. Stellar spectrum synthesis Jun Jugaku; 10. Mass exchange and stellar abundance anomalies Benjamin Peery; Part III. Extragalactic Astronomy: 11. The M31 globular cluster system John Huchra; 12. Spiral structure and star formation in galaxies Debra Elmegreen; 13. The discovery of hot coronae around early type galaxies William Forman and Christine Jones; 14. The morphology of clusters of galaxies, the formation efficiency of galaxies and the origin of the intracluster medium Christine Jones and William Forman; 15. Testing models for the dynamical evolution of clusters of galaxies Phyllis Lugger; 16. What is in the X-ray sky? Rudolph Schild; 17. Einstein deep surveys Stephen Murray, Christine Jones and William Forman; Part IV. History, Lore and Archaeoastronomy: 18. Robert Wheeler Willson: His Life and Legacy Barbara Welther; 19. The great mnemonics contest Owen Gingerich; 20. Hetu'u Rapanui: The archaeoastronomy of Easter Island William Liller; Indexes; Names; Objects; Subjects.
Bayesian Face Sketch Synthesis.
Wang, Nannan; Gao, Xinbo; Sun, Leiyu; Li, Jie
2017-03-01
Exemplar-based face sketch synthesis has been widely applied to both digital entertainment and law enforcement. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian framework for face sketch synthesis, which provides a systematic interpretation for understanding the common properties and intrinsic difference in different methods from the perspective of probabilistic graphical models. The proposed Bayesian framework consists of two parts: the neighbor selection model and the weight computation model. Within the proposed framework, we further propose a Bayesian face sketch synthesis method. The essential rationale behind the proposed Bayesian method is that we take the spatial neighboring constraint between adjacent image patches into consideration for both aforementioned models, while the state-of-the-art methods neglect the constraint either in the neighbor selection model or in the weight computation model. Extensive experiments on the Chinese University of Hong Kong face sketch database demonstrate that the proposed Bayesian method could achieve superior performance compared with the state-of-the-art methods in terms of both subjective perceptions and objective evaluations.
The Thermal Proximity Effect: A New Probe of the He ii Reionization History and Quasar Lifetime
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Khrykin, I. S.; Hennawi, J. F.; McQuinn, M.
2017-04-01
Despite decades of effort, the timing and duration of He ii reionization and the properties of the quasars believed to drive it are still not well constrained. We present a new method to study both via the thermal proximity effect—the heating of the intergalactic medium (IGM) around quasars when their radiation doubly ionizes helium. We post-process hydrodynamical simulations with 1D radiative transfer and study how the thermal proximity effect depends on the He ii fraction, {x}{He{{II}},0}, which prevailed in the IGM before the quasar turned on, and the quasar lifetime {t}{{Q}}. We find that the amplitude of the temperature boost in the quasar environment depends on {x}{He{{II}},0}, with a characteristic value of {{Δ }}T≃ {10}4 {{K}} for {x}{He{{II}},0}=1.0, whereas the size of the thermal proximity zone is sensitive to {t}{{Q}}, with typical sizes of ≃ 100 {cMpc} for {t}{{Q}}={10}8 {yr}. This temperature boost increases the thermal broadening of H i absorption lines near the quasar. We introduce a new Bayesian statistical method based on measuring the Lyα forest power spectrum as a function of distance from the quasar, and demonstrate that the thermal proximity effect should be easily detectable. For a mock data set of 50 quasars at z≃ 4, we predict that one can measure {x}{He{{II}},0} to an (absolute) precision ≈ 0.04 and {t}{{Q}} to a precision of ≈ 0.1 dex. By applying our formalism to existing high-resolution Lyα forest spectra, one should be able to reconstruct the He ii reionization history, providing a global census of hard photons in the high-z universe.
HST/COS OBSERVATIONS OF THIRTEEN NEW He II QUASARS
Syphers, David; Anderson, Scott F.; Zheng Wei; Meiksin, Avery; Schneider, Donald P.; York, Donald G.
2012-04-15
The full reionization of intergalactic helium was a major event in the history of the intergalactic medium (IGM), and UV observations of the He II Gunn-Peterson trough allow us to characterize the end of this process at z {approx} 3. Due to intervening hydrogen absorption, quasars allowing such study are rare, with only 33 known in the literature, and most of those are very recent discoveries. We expand on our previous discovery work, and present 13 new He II quasars with redshifts 2.82 < z < 3.77, here selected with {approx}80% efficiency, and including several that are much brighter than the vast majority of those previously known. This is the largest sample of uniformly observed He II quasars covering such a broad redshift range, and they show evidence of IGM opacity increasing with redshift, as expected for the helium reionization epoch. No evidence of He II Ly{alpha} quasar emission is seen in individual or averaged spectra, posing a problem for standard models of the broad-line region. The current rapid advance in the study of He II quasars has been greatly facilitated by the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph on the Hubble Space Telescope, and we discuss the instrumental and other subtleties that must be taken into account in IGM He II observations.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Gilkey, Kelly M.; Myers, Jerry G.; McRae, Michael P.; Griffin, Elise A.; Kallrui, Aditya S.
2012-01-01
The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.
FAR-INFRARED PROPERTIES OF TYPE 1 QUASARS
Hanish, D. J.; Teplitz, H. I.; Capak, P.; Desai, V.; Armus, L.; Brinkworth, C.; Brooke, T.; Colbert, J.; Fadda, D.; Noriega-Crespo, A.; Paladini, R.; Frayer, D.; Huynh, M.; Lacy, M.; Murphy, E.; Scarlata, C.; Shenoy, S.
2013-05-01
We use the Spitzer Space Telescope Enhanced Imaging Products and the Spitzer Archival Far-InfraRed Extragalactic Survey to study the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of spectroscopically confirmed type 1 quasars selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). By combining the Spitzer and SDSS data with the Two Micron All Sky Survey, we are able to construct a statistically robust rest-frame 0.1-100 {mu}m type 1 quasar template. We find that the quasar population is well-described by a single power-law SED at wavelengths less than 20 {mu}m, in good agreement with previous work. However, at longer wavelengths, we find a significant excess in infrared luminosity above an extrapolated power-law, along with significant object-to-object dispersion in the SED. The mean excess reaches a maximum of 0.8 dex at rest-frame wavelengths near 100 {mu}m.
BINARY QUASARS IN THE SLOAN DIGITAL SKY SURVEY: EVIDENCE FOR EXCESS CLUSTERING ON SMALL SCALES
Hennawi, J F; Strauss, M A; Oguri, M; Inada, N; Richards, G T; Pindor, B; Schneider, D P; Becker, R H; Gregg, M D; Hall, P B; Johnston, D E; Fan, X; Burles, S; Schlegel, D J; Gunn, J E; Lupton, R; Bahcall, N A; Brunner, R J; Brinkman, J
2005-11-10
We present a sample of 218 new quasar pairs with proper transverse separations R{sub prop} < 1 h{sup -1} Mpc over the redshift range 0.5 < z < 3.0, discovered from an extensive follow up campaign to find companions around the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and 2dF Quasar Redshift Survey quasars. This sample includes 26 new binary quasars with separations R{sub prop} < 50 h{sup -1} kpc ({theta} < 10''), more than doubling the number of such systems known. We define a statistical sample of binaries selected with homogeneous criteria and compute its selection function, taking into account sources of incompleteness. The first measurement of the quasar correlation function on scales 10 h{sup -1} kpc < R{sub prop} < 400 h{sup -1} kpc is presented. For R{sub prop} {approx}< 40 h{sup -1} kpc, we detect an order of magnitude excess clustering over the expectation from the large scale (R{sub prop} {approx}> 3 h{sup -1} Mpc) quasar correlation function, extrapolated down as a power law to the separations probed by our binaries. The excess grows to {approx}30 at R{sub prop} {approx} 10 h{sup -1} kpc, and provides compelling evidence that the quasar autocorrelation function gets progressively steeper on sub-Mpc scales. This small scale excess can likely be attributed to dissipative interaction events which trigger quasar activity in rich environments. Recent small scale measurements of galaxy clustering and quasar-galaxy clustering are reviewed and discussed in relation to our measurement of small scale quasar clustering.
Groups, concentrations and associations of quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arp, H.
1983-06-01
The available observations on high redshift quasars have been analyzed by Oort et al. (1982). If the quasars are at their redshift distances and belong to superclusters, there must exist far less than one quasar per average supercluster. The present investigation is concerned with a review of evidence for quasars occurring in small groups, in larger concentrations, and in association with other kinds of objects. Tight groupings of quasars are examined, taking into account the Group SW of NGC 450, the Group SE of NGC 2639, NGC 1097 NE, NGC 520, and a discussion of dense groups. In connection with a discussion of quassars in larger concentrations, attention is given to quasars in a complete field around NGC 1097, and quasars near NGC 520. The redshift-luminosity relation for quasars is considered along with questions concerning alignments, triples, and redshift pairing across galaxies.
Counts of low-Redshift SDSS quasar candidates
Zeljko Ivezic et al.
2004-03-12
We analyze the counts of low-redshift quasar candidates selected using nine-epoch SDSS imaging data. The co-added catalogs are more than 1 mag deeper than single-epoch SDSS data, and allow the selection of low-redshift quasar candidates using UV-excess and also variability techniques. The counts of selected candidates are robustly determined down to g = 21.5. This is about 2 magnitudes deeper than the position of a change in the slope of the counts reported by Boyle et al. (1990, 2000) for a sample selected by UV-excess, and questioned by Hawkins & Veron (1995), who utilized a variability-selected sample. Using SDSS data, we confirm a change in the slope of the counts for both UV-excess and variability selected samples, providing strong support for the Boyle et al. results.
Volume-limited SDSS/First quasars and the radio dichotomy
Sebastian Jester; R.G. Kron
2004-03-12
Much evidence has been presented in favor of and against the existence of two distinct populations of quasars, radio-loud and radio-quiet. The SDSS differs from earlier optically selected quasar surveys in the large number of quasars and the targeting of FIRST radio source counterparts as quasar candidates. This allows a qualitatively different approach of constructing a series of samples at different redshifts which are volume-limited with respect to both radio and optical luminosity. This technique avoids any biases from the strong evolution of quasar counts with redshift and potential redshift-dependent selection effects. We find that optical and radio luminosities of quasars detected in both SDSS and FIRST are not well correlated within each redshift shell, although the fraction of radio detections among optically selected quasars remains roughly constant at 10% for z {le} 3.2. The distribution in the luminosity-luminosity plane does not appear to be strongly bimodal. The optical luminosity function is marginally flatter at higher radio luminosities.
An Extended Bayesian-FBP Algorithm.
Zeng, Gengsheng L; Divkovic, Zeljko
2016-02-01
Recently we developed a Bayesian-FBP (Filtered Backprojection) algorithm for CT image reconstruction. This algorithm is also referred to as the FBP-MAP (FBP Maximum a Posteriori) algorithm. This non-iterative Bayesian algorithm has been applied to real-time MRI, in which the k-space is under-sampled. This current paper investigates the possibility to extend this Bayesian-FBP algorithm by introducing more controlling parameters. Thus, our original Bayesian-FBP algorithm became a special case of the extended Bayesian-FBP algorithm. A cardiac patient data set is used in this paper to evaluate the extended Bayesian-FBP algorithm, and the result from a well-establish iterative algorithm with L1-norms is used as the gold standard. If the parameters are selected properly, the extended Bayesian-FBP algorithm can outperform the original Bayesian-FBP algorithm.
Karagiannis, Georgios Lin, Guang
2014-02-15
Generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansions allow us to represent the solution of a stochastic system using a series of polynomial chaos basis functions. The number of gPC terms increases dramatically as the dimension of the random input variables increases. When the number of the gPC terms is larger than that of the available samples, a scenario that often occurs when the corresponding deterministic solver is computationally expensive, evaluation of the gPC expansion can be inaccurate due to over-fitting. We propose a fully Bayesian approach that allows for global recovery of the stochastic solutions, in both spatial and random domains, by coupling Bayesian model uncertainty and regularization regression methods. It allows the evaluation of the PC coefficients on a grid of spatial points, via (1) the Bayesian model average (BMA) or (2) the median probability model, and their construction as spatial functions on the spatial domain via spline interpolation. The former accounts for the model uncertainty and provides Bayes-optimal predictions; while the latter provides a sparse representation of the stochastic solutions by evaluating the expansion on a subset of dominating gPC bases. Moreover, the proposed methods quantify the importance of the gPC bases in the probabilistic sense through inclusion probabilities. We design a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler that evaluates all the unknown quantities without the need of ad-hoc techniques. The proposed methods are suitable for, but not restricted to, problems whose stochastic solutions are sparse in the stochastic space with respect to the gPC bases while the deterministic solver involved is expensive. We demonstrate the accuracy and performance of the proposed methods and make comparisons with other approaches on solving elliptic SPDEs with 1-, 14- and 40-random dimensions.
Karagiannis, Georgios; Lin, Guang
2014-02-15
Generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansions allow the representation of the solution of a stochastic system as a series of polynomial terms. The number of gPC terms increases dramatically with the dimension of the random input variables. When the number of the gPC terms is larger than that of the available samples, a scenario that often occurs if the evaluations of the system are expensive, the evaluation of the gPC expansion can be inaccurate due to over-fitting. We propose a fully Bayesian approach that allows for global recovery of the stochastic solution, both in spacial and random domains, by coupling Bayesian model uncertainty and regularization regression methods. It allows the evaluation of the PC coefficients on a grid of spacial points via (1) Bayesian model average or (2) medial probability model, and their construction as functions on the spacial domain via spline interpolation. The former accounts the model uncertainty and provides Bayes-optimal predictions; while the latter, additionally, provides a sparse representation of the solution by evaluating the expansion on a subset of dominating gPC bases when represented as a gPC expansion. Moreover, the method quantifies the importance of the gPC bases through inclusion probabilities. We design an MCMC sampler that evaluates all the unknown quantities without the need of ad-hoc techniques. The proposed method is suitable for, but not restricted to, problems whose stochastic solution is sparse at the stochastic level with respect to the gPC bases while the deterministic solver involved is expensive. We demonstrate the good performance of the proposed method and make comparisons with others on 1D, 14D and 40D in random space elliptic stochastic partial differential equations.
Dust reddened quasars in first and UKIDSS: Beyond the tip of the iceberg
Glikman, Eilat; Urrutia, Tanya; Lacy, Mark; Djorgovski, S. G.; Mahabal, Ashish; Graham, Matthew; Urry, Meg; Croom, Scott; Schneider, Donald P.; Ge, Jian
2013-12-01
We present the results of a pilot survey to find dust-reddened quasars by matching the Faint Images of the Radio Sky at Twenty-Centimeters (FIRST) radio catalog to the UKIDSS near-infrared survey and using optical data from Sloan Digital Sky Survey to select objects with very red colors. The deep K-band limit provided by UKIDSS allows for finding more heavily reddened quasars at higher redshifts as compared with previous work using FIRST and Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS). We selected 87 candidates with K ≤ 17.0 from the UKIDSS Large Area Survey (LAS) First Data Release (DR1), which covers 190 deg{sup 2}. These candidates reach up to ∼1.5 mag below the 2MASS limit and obey the color criteria developed to identify dust-reddened quasars. We have obtained 61 spectroscopic observations in the optical and/or near-infrared, as well as classifications in the literature, and have identified 14 reddened quasars with E(B – V) > 0.1, including 3 at z > 2. We study the infrared properties of the sample using photometry from the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer and find that infrared colors improve the efficiency of red quasar selection, removing many contaminants in an infrared-to-optical color-selected sample alone. The highest-redshift quasars (z ≳ 2) are only moderately reddened, with E(B – V) ∼ 0.2-0.3. We find that the surface density of red quasars rises sharply with faintness, comprising up to 17% of blue quasars at the same apparent K-band flux limit. We estimate that to reach more heavily reddened quasars (i.e., E(B – V) ≳ 0.5) at z > 2 and a depth of K = 17, we would need to survey at least ∼2.5 times more area.
Dust Reddened Quasars in FIRST and UKIDSS: Beyond the Tip of the Iceberg
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Glikman, Eilat; Urrutia, Tanya; Lacy, Mark; Djorgovski, S. G.; Urry, Meg; Croom, Scott; Schneider, Donald P.; Mahabal, Ashish; Graham, Matthew; Ge, Jian
2013-12-01
We present the results of a pilot survey to find dust-reddened quasars by matching the Faint Images of the Radio Sky at Twenty-Centimeters (FIRST) radio catalog to the UKIDSS near-infrared survey and using optical data from Sloan Digital Sky Survey to select objects with very red colors. The deep K-band limit provided by UKIDSS allows for finding more heavily reddened quasars at higher redshifts as compared with previous work using FIRST and Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS). We selected 87 candidates with K <= 17.0 from the UKIDSS Large Area Survey (LAS) First Data Release (DR1), which covers 190 deg2. These candidates reach up to ~1.5 mag below the 2MASS limit and obey the color criteria developed to identify dust-reddened quasars. We have obtained 61 spectroscopic observations in the optical and/or near-infrared, as well as classifications in the literature, and have identified 14 reddened quasars with E(B - V) > 0.1, including 3 at z > 2. We study the infrared properties of the sample using photometry from the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer and find that infrared colors improve the efficiency of red quasar selection, removing many contaminants in an infrared-to-optical color-selected sample alone. The highest-redshift quasars (z >~ 2) are only moderately reddened, with E(B - V) ~ 0.2-0.3. We find that the surface density of red quasars rises sharply with faintness, comprising up to 17% of blue quasars at the same apparent K-band flux limit. We estimate that to reach more heavily reddened quasars (i.e., E(B - V) >~ 0.5) at z > 2 and a depth of K = 17, we would need to survey at least ~2.5 times more area.
Quasar Structure from Microlensing in Gravitationally Lensed Quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Morgan, Christopher W.
2007-12-01
I investigate microlensing in gravitationally lensed quasars and discuss the use of its signal to probe quasar structure on small angular scales. I describe our lensed quasar optical monitoring program and RETROCAM, the optical camera I built for the 2.4m Hiltner telescope to monitor lensed quasars. I use the microlensing variability observed in 11 gravitationally lensed quasars to show that the accretion disk size at 2500Å is related to the black hole mass by log(R2500/cm) = (15.70±0.16) + (0.64±0.18)log(MBH/109M⊙). This scaling is consistent with the expectation from thin disk theory (R ∝ MBH2/3), but it implies that black holes radiate with relatively low efficiency, log(η) = -1.54±0.36 + log(L/LE) where η=L/(Mdotc2). With one exception, these sizes are larger by a factor of 4 than the size needed to produce the observed 0.8µm quasar flux by thermal radiation from a thin disk with the same T ∝ R-3/4 temperature profile. More sophisticated disk models are clearly required, particularly as our continuing observations improve the precision of the measurements and yield estimates of the scaling with wavelength and accretion rate. This research made extensive use of a Beowulf computer cluster obtained through the Cluster Ohio program of the Ohio Supercomputer Center. Support for program HST-GO-9744 was provided by NASA through a grant from the Space Telescope Science Institute, which is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under NASA contract NAS-5-26666.
Cosmic evolution of Quasar radio structure
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hutchings, J. B.; Neff, S. G.
1991-01-01
We discuss the results of a survey of Quasar radio structures over redshifts from 0.6 to 3.7. There are clear evolutionary trends in size and luminosity, which suggest that the duty cycle of individual Quasars has increased over cosmic time. This affects source count statistics and gives clues on the evolution of Quasar environments.
Venkat, Priya S; Narayanan, Krishna R; Datta, Aniruddha
2017-04-01
An important problem in computational biology is the identification of potential points of intervention that can lead to modified network behavior in a genetic regulatory network. We consider the problem of deducing the effect of individual genes on the behavior of the network in a statistical framework. In this article, we make use of biological information from the literature to develop a Bayesian network and introduce a method to estimate parameters of this network using data that are relevant to the biological phenomena under study. Then, we give a novel approach to select significant nodes in the network using a decision-theoretic approach. The proposed method is applied to the analysis of the mitogen-activated protein kinase pathway in the plant defense response to pathogens. Results from applying the method to experimental data show that the proposed approach is effective in selecting genes that play crucial roles in the biological phenomenon being studied.
Balokovic, M.; Smolcic, V.; Ivezic, Z.; Zamorani, G.; Schinnerer, E.; Kelly, B. C.
2012-11-01
We investigate the dichotomy in the radio loudness distribution of quasars by modeling their radio emission and various selection effects using a Monte Carlo approach. The existence of two physically distinct quasar populations, the radio-loud and radio-quiet quasars, is controversial and over the last decade a bimodal distribution of radio loudness of quasars has been both affirmed and disputed. We model the quasar radio luminosity distribution with simple unimodal and bimodal distribution functions. The resulting simulated samples are compared to a fiducial sample of 8300 quasars drawn from the SDSS DR7 Quasar Catalog and combined with radio observations from the FIRST survey. Our results indicate that the SDSS-FIRST sample is best described by a radio loudness distribution which consists of two components, with (12 {+-} 1)% of sources in the radio-loud component. On the other hand, the evidence for a local minimum in the loudness distribution (bimodality) is not strong and we find that previous claims for its existence were probably affected by the incompleteness of the FIRST survey close to its faint limit. We also investigate the redshift and luminosity dependence of the radio loudness distribution and find tentative evidence that at high redshift radio-loud quasars were rarer, on average louder, and exhibited a smaller range in radio loudness. In agreement with other recent work, we conclude that the SDSS-FIRST sample strongly suggests that the radio loudness distribution of quasars is not a universal function, and that more complex models than presented here are needed to fully explain available observations.
Ghasemi, Fakhradin; Kalatpour, Omid; Moghimbeigi, Abbas; Mohammadfam, Iraj
2017-03-04
High-risk unsafe behaviors (HRUBs) have been known as the main cause of occupational accidents. Considering the financial and societal costs of accidents and the limitations of available resources, there is an urgent need for managing unsafe behaviors at workplaces. The aim of the present study was to find strategies for decreasing the rate of HRUBs using an integrated approach of safety behavior sampling technique and Bayesian networks analysis. A cross-sectional study. The Bayesian network was constructed using a focus group approach. The required data was collected using the safety behavior sampling, and the parameters of the network were estimated using Expectation-Maximization algorithm. Using sensitivity analysis and belief updating, it was determined that which factors had the highest influences on unsafe behavior. Based on BN analyses, safety training was the most important factor influencing employees' behavior at the workplace. High quality safety training courses can reduce the rate of HRUBs about 10%. Moreover, the rate of HRUBs increased by decreasing the age of employees. The rate of HRUBs was higher in the afternoon and last days of a week. Among the investigated variables, training was the most important factor affecting safety behavior of employees. By holding high quality safety training courses, companies would be able to reduce the rate of HRUBs significantly.
The SDSS view of the Palomar-Green bright quasar survey
Jester, Sebastian; Schneider, Donald P.; Richards, Gordon T.; Green, Richard F.; Schmidt, Maarten; Hall, Patrick B.; Strauss, Michael A.; Vanden Berk, Daniel E.; Stoughton, Chris; Gunn, James E.; Brinkmann, Jon; Kent, Stephen M.; Smith, J.Allyn; Tucker, Douglas, L.; Yanny, Brian; /Fermilab /Penn State U., Astron. Astrophys. /Princeton U. Observ. /Kitt Peak Observ. /Caltech /Chicago U., Astron. Astrophys. Ctr. /York U., Canada /Apache Point Observ. /Wyoming U. /Los Alamos
2005-02-01
The author investigates the extent to which the Palomar-Green (PG) Bright Quasar Survey (BQS) is complete and representative of the general quasar population by comparing with imaging and spectroscopy from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. A comparison of SDSS and PG photometry of both stars and quasars reveals the need to apply a color and magnitude recalibration to the PG data. Using the SDSS photometric catalog, they define the PG's parent sample of objects that are not main-sequence stars and simulate the selection of objects from this parent sample using the PG photometric criteria and errors. This simulation shows that the effective U-B cut in the PG survey is U-B < -0.71, implying a color-related incompleteness. As the color distribution of bright quasars peaks near U-B = -0.7 and the 2-{sigma} error in U-B is comparable to the full width of the color distribution of quasars, the color incompleteness of the BQS is approximately 50% and essentially random with respect to U-B color for z < 0.5. There is however, a bias against bright quasars at 0.5 < z < 1, which is induced by the color-redshift relation of quasars (although quasars at z > 0.5 are inherently rare in bright surveys in any case). They find no evidence for any other systematic incompleteness when comparing the distributions in color, redshift, and FIRST radio properties of the BQS and a BQS-like subsample of the SDSS quasar sample. However, the application of a bright magnitude limit biases the BQS toward the inclusion of objects which are blue in g-i, in particular compared to the full range of g-i colors found among the i-band limited SDSS quasars, and even at i-band magnitudes comparable to those of the BQS objects.
A NEOWISE Survey of Quasars in the Epoch of Reionization
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fan, Xiaohui
Luminous quasars at high redshift provide direct probes of the evolution of supermassive black holes (BHs) and intergalactic medium (IGM) at early cosmic time. More than 100 quasars have now been discovered at z>6, with the highest redshift at z=7.1. Detections of such objects indicate the existence of billion solar mass BHs merely a few hundred Myrs after the first star formation in the universe, challenging the theory of BH growth and BH-galaxy coevolution at early epoch. Absorption spectra of the highest redshift quasars reveal complete Gunn-Peterson absorption from an increasing neutral IGM, marking the end of the reionization epoch at z>6. Combined with observations of CMB polarization and high-redshift Ly alpha galaxies, current data strongly suggest a peak of reionization activity and emergence of the earliest galaxies and AGNs at 7
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Hinkle, Dennis; Houston, Charles A.
The purpose of this study was to present and evaluate Bayesian-type models for estimating probabilities of program completion and for predicting first quarter grade point averages of community college students entering certain allied health fields. Two Bayesian models were tested. Bayesian Model 1--Estimating Probabilities of Program…
A DISTANT QUASAR'S BRILLIANT LIGHT
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
2002-01-01
The arrow in this image, taken by a ground-based telescope, points to a distant quasar, the brilliant core of an active galaxy residing billions of light-years from Earth. As light from this faraway object travels across space, it picks up information on galaxies and the vast clouds of material between galaxies as it moves through them. The Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph aboard NASA's Hubble Space Telescope decoded the quasar's light to find the spectral 'fingerprints' of highly ionized (energized) oxygen, which had mixed with invisible clouds of hydrogen in intergalactic space. The quasar's brilliant beam pierced at least four separate filaments of the invisible hydrogen laced with the telltale oxygen. The presence of oxygen between the galaxies implies there are huge quantities of hydrogen in the universe. Credits: WIYN Telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory in Arizona. The telescope is owned and operated by the University of Wisconsin, Indiana University, Yale University, and the National Optical Astronomy Observatories.
A DISTANT QUASAR'S BRILLIANT LIGHT
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
2002-01-01
The arrow in this image, taken by a ground-based telescope, points to a distant quasar, the brilliant core of an active galaxy residing billions of light-years from Earth. As light from this faraway object travels across space, it picks up information on galaxies and the vast clouds of material between galaxies as it moves through them. The Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph aboard NASA's Hubble Space Telescope decoded the quasar's light to find the spectral 'fingerprints' of highly ionized (energized) oxygen, which had mixed with invisible clouds of hydrogen in intergalactic space. The quasar's brilliant beam pierced at least four separate filaments of the invisible hydrogen laced with the telltale oxygen. The presence of oxygen between the galaxies implies there are huge quantities of hydrogen in the universe. Credits: WIYN Telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory in Arizona. The telescope is owned and operated by the University of Wisconsin, Indiana University, Yale University, and the National Optical Astronomy Observatories.
The 2QDES Pilot: the luminosity and redshift dependence of quasar clustering
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chehade, Ben; Shanks, T.; Findlay, J.; Metcalfe, N.; Sawangwit, U.; Irwin, M.; González-Solares, E.; Fine, S.; Drinkwater, M. J.; Croom, S.; Jurek, R. J.; Parkinson, D.; Bielby, R.
2016-06-01
We present a new redshift survey, the 2dF Quasar Dark Energy Survey pilot (2QDESp), which consists of ≈10 000 quasars from ≈150 deg2 of the southern sky, based on VST-ATLAS imaging and 2dF/AAOmega spectroscopy. Combining our optical photometry with the WISE (W1,W2) bands we can select essentially contamination free quasar samples with 0.8 < z < 2.5 and g < 20.5. At fainter magnitudes, optical UVX selection is still required to reach our g ≈ 22.5 limit. Using both these techniques we observed quasar redshifts at sky densities up to 90 deg-2. By comparing 2QDESp with other surveys (SDSS, 2QZ and 2SLAQ) we find that quasar clustering is approximately luminosity independent, with results for all four surveys consistent with a correlation scale of r0 = 6.1 ± 0.1 h-1 Mpc, despite their decade range in luminosity. We find a significant redshift dependence of clustering, particularly when BOSS data with r0 = 7.3 ± 0.1 h-1 Mpc are included at z ≈ 2.4. All quasars remain consistent with having a single host halo mass of ≈2 ± 1 × 1012 h-1 M⊙. This result implies that either quasars do not radiate at a fixed fraction of the Eddington luminosity or AGN black hole and dark matter halo masses are weakly correlated. No significant evidence is found to support fainter, X-ray selected quasars at low redshift having larger halo masses as predicted by the `hot halo' mode AGN model of Fanidakis et al. (2013). Finally, although the combined quasar sample reaches an effective volume as large as that of the original SDSS LRG sample, we do not detect the BAO feature in these data.
Discovery of Eight z ∼ 6 Quasars in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Overlap Regions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jiang, Linhua; McGreer, Ian D.; Fan, Xiaohui; Bian, Fuyan; Cai, Zheng; Clément, Benjamin; Wang, Ran; Fan, Zhou
2015-06-01
We present the discovery of eight quasars at z∼ 6 identified in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) overlap regions. Individual SDSS imaging runs have some overlap with each other, leading to repeat observations over an area spanning >4000 deg2 (more than one-fourth of the total footprint). These overlap regions provide a unique data set that allows us to select high-redshift quasars more than 0.5 mag fainter in the z band than those found with the SDSS single-epoch data. Our quasar candidates were first selected as i-band dropout objects in the SDSS imaging database. We then carried out a series of follow-up observations in the optical and near-IR to improve photometry, remove contaminants, and identify quasars. The eight quasars reported here were discovered in a pilot study utilizing the overlap regions at high galactic latitude (|b|\\gt 30{}^\\circ ). These quasars span a redshift range of 5.86\\lt z\\lt 6.06 and a flux range of 19.3\\lt {{z}AB}\\lt 20.6 mag. Five of them are fainter than {{z}AB}=20 mag, the typical magnitude limit of z∼ 6 quasars used for the SDSS single-epoch images. In addition, we recover eight previously known quasars at z∼ 6 that are located in the overlap regions. These results validate our procedure for selecting quasar candidates from the overlap regions and confirming them with follow-up observations, and they provide guidance to a future systematic survey over all SDSS imaging regions with repeat observations.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McLeod, Kim K.; Bechtold, J.
2010-01-01
We have undertaken a project to investigate the host galaxies and environments of a sample of quasars at z 4. In this paper, we describe deep near-infrared imaging of 34 targets using the Magellan I and Gemini North telescopes. We discuss in detail special challenges of distortion and nonlinearity that must be addressed when performing PSF subtraction with data from these telescopes and their IR cameras, especially in very good seeing. We derive black hole masses from emission-line spectroscopy, and we calculate accretion rates from our Ks-band photometry, which directly samples the rest-frame B for these objects. We introduce a new isophotal diameter technique for estimating host galaxy luminosities. We report the detection of four host galaxies on our deepest, sharpest images, and present upper limits for the others. We find that if host galaxies passively evolve such that they brighten by 2 magnitudes or more in the rest-frame B band between the present and z=4, then high-z hosts are less massive at a given black hole mass than are their low-z counterparts. We argue that the most massive hosts plateau at < 10L*. We estimate the importance of selection effects on this survey and the subsequent limitations of our conclusions. These results are in broad agreement with recent semi-analytical models for the formation of luminous quasars and their host spheroids by mergers of gas-rich galaxies, with significant dissipation, and self-regulation of black hole growth and star-formation by the burst of merger-induced quasar activity.
The Geometry of Quasar Outflows
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ganguly, Rajib
2012-10-01
Quasar outflows are important for understanding the accretion and growth processes of the central black hole, but also potentially play a role in feedback to the galaxy, halting star formation and infall of gas. A big uncertainty lies in the geometry and density of these outflows, especially as a function of ionization and velocity. We aim to tackle this using the archival COS M grating spectra of 266 quasars. We separate the geometry of outflows into two parts: the solid angle subtended around the black hole, and the distance of the outflow from the central engine. Large numbers of quasars with high resolution spectra are required for each aspect of this statistical investigation. First, we will determine which/how many absorption-line systems are intrinsic through both partial covering methods and statistical assessments. Second, we will consider the incidence of intrinsic absorbers as a function of quasar property {e.g., radio-loudness, SED shape, black hole mass, bolometric luminosity}. This will reveal what determines the solid angle. This can only be done at moderate redshifts where quasars with a larger range of properties are observable, and hence requires HST/COS. Third, we will use the wide range of diagnostic lines to constrain the physical conditions of the absorbers. We will target the CIII*1175 complex and apply photoionization models to constrain the densities and ionization parameters. This will provide the largest set yet of intrinsic absorbers with systematic distance constraints. In tandem with the solid angles, this work will inform models regarding the geometry of quasar outflows.
Carbon-Mangels, Miriam; Hutter, Michael C
2011-10-01
Classification algorithms suffer from the curse of dimensionality, which leads to overfitting, particularly if the problem is over-determined. Therefore it is of particular interest to identify the most relevant descriptors to reduce the complexity. We applied Bayesian estimates to model the probability distribution of descriptors values used for binary classification using n-fold cross-validation. As a measure for the discriminative power of the classifiers, the symmetric form of the Kullback-Leibler divergence of their probability distributions was computed. We found that the most relevant descriptors possess a Gaussian-like distribution of their values, show the largest divergences, and therefore appear most often in the cross-validation scenario. The results were compared to those of the LASSO feature selection method applied to multiple decision trees and support vector machine approaches for data sets of substrates and nonsubstrates of three Cytochrome P450 isoenzymes, which comprise strongly unbalanced compound distributions. In contrast to decision trees and support vector machines, the performance of Bayesian estimates is less affected by unbalanced data sets. This strategy reveals those descriptors that allow a simple linear separation of the classes, whereas the superior accuracy of decision trees and support vector machines can be attributed to nonlinear separation, which are in turn more prone to overfitting.
Quasars in rich galaxy clusters
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ellingson, Erica; Yee, Howard K. C.
1993-01-01
The evolution of AGN activity in rich clusters of galaxies is found to be approximately 5 times more rapid than that in poor clusters. This rapid evolution may be driven by evolution in the dynamics of galaxy cluster cores. Results from our spectroscopic studies of galaxies associated with quasars are consistent with this scenario, in that bright AGN are preferentially found in regions of lower velocity dispersion. Alternately, the evolution may be driven by formation of a dense intra-cluster medium (ICM). Galaxies close to quasars in rich cluster cores are much bluer (presumably gas rich) than galaxies in the cores of other rich clusters, in support of this model.
High redshift quasars monitoring campaign
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Botti, Ismael; Lira, Paulina; Martinez, Jorge; Netzer, Hagai; Kaspi, Shai
2014-07-01
We present an update of the monitoring campaign we have undertaken to probe the most massive black holes in powerful quasars at high redshift through the reverberation mapping technique. Once this campaign has finished, we will be able to directly measure broad line region (BLR) sizes of quasars at z ~ 2-3, improving dramatically the BLR size-luminosity relation, and therefore, black hole mass estimates based on this relationship. So far, we have identified a dozen highly variable sources suitable for future cross-correlation analysis and reverberation measurements.
Optical environments of radio quasars
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hutchings, J. B.; Neff, S. G.
1990-01-01
CCD images of 36 radio-loud quasars in the redshift range 0.1-0.75 are discussed. The objects were chosen to represent the full range of radio structure found with VLA A-configuration observations. Measured quantities are compared and correlated from both radio and optical observations. At least 70 percent of the quasars show evidence for current or recent interaction. Consideration is given to host galaxy sizes and luminosities, states of tidal interaction and numbers of companions, radio morphology, and luminosity.
"Dead quasars" in nearby galaxies?
Rees, M J
1990-02-16
The nuclei of some galaxies undergo violent activity, quasars being the most extreme instances of this phenomenon. Such activity is probably short-lived compared to galactic lifetimes, and was most prevalent when the universe was only about one-fifth of its present age. A massive black hole seems the inevitable end point of such activity, and dead quasars should greatly outnumber active ones. In recent years, studies of stellar motions in the cores of several nearby galaxies indicate the presence of central dark masses which could be black holes. This article discusses how such evidence might be corroborated, and the potential implications for our understanding of active galaxies and black holes.
X-Ray Properties Of Hyper-Luminous Quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Piconcelli, Enrico; Martocchia, S.; Zappacosta, L.; Bischetti, M.; Bongiorno, A.; Duras, F.; Fiore, F.; Vietri, G.; Vignali, C.; Lanzuisi, G.; Brusa, M.; Bianchi, S.; Feruglio, C.; The Wissh Collaboration
2016-10-01
The systematic exploration of hyper-luminous (log LBol > 47) quasars shining at the golden epoch of AGN activity (i.e. z 2-4) offer the opportunity of overcoming the luminosity bias in the exploration of the accretion phenomenon. The WISE All-Sky Survey allowed to spot the most luminous quasars in the universe. In this talk, we will present the results of our on-going study of the XMM/Chandra/NuSTAR observations of WISE-selected hyper-luminous quasars regardless of the amount of their obscuration (i.e. both blue and heavily reddened). We report on the correlations between the X-ray and Optical, UV and MIR properties, and on the behavior of the X-ray bolometric correction at the brightest end of the luminosity function. We find that WISE-selected hyper-luminous quasars show much lower X/Opt flux and X/MIR luminosity ratios than those of AGN typically studied so far. This "X-ray weakness" can be a key ingredient for accelerating powerful ionized outflows (pervasively detected in the UV/optical band) and, furthermore, radiation-driven winds can be effective in destroying the X-ray corona and quenching the X-ray emission.
A Spectral Study of a New Class of Radio Quasars
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Perlman, Eric S.
2003-01-01
This document serves as a final technical report for NASA grants NAG5-9995 and NAG5-9533, entitled 'A Spectral Study of a New Class of Radio Quasars.' The purpose of these grants were to support observations made using the BeppoSAX satellite. The observations took place over two years and covered two SAX observing cycles, respectively AO-3 and AO-4. During this time, I was employed both at Johns Hopkins University (NAG5-9995) and the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (NAG5-9533). As the research on these grants was on the same subject and my employment at JHU and UMBC has been consecutive, this document therefore covers both grants. The targets for these observations were four radio-loud quasars chosen from the first two X-ray selected samples of such objects. These were the brightest examples of the newly found class of X-ray loud flat-spectrum radio quasars, which prior to 1997, had never been seen before. However, my previous work with collaborators Paolo Padovani and Paolo Giommi on the DXRBS survey showed that they make up about 25% of the population of flat-spectrum radio quasars, but had not been seen before because of selection biases (all previous samples of these objects had been compiled in the radio). The purpose of the SAX observations was to investigate the shape of their X-ray spectrum, which would tell us where the peak of their synchrotron emission was located.
A Spectral Study of a New Class of Radio Quasars
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Perlman, Eric S.
2003-01-01
This document serves as a final technical report for NASA grants NAG5-9995 and NAG5-9533, entitled 'A Spectral Study of a New Class of Radio Quasars.' The purpose of these grants were to support observations made using the BeppoSAX satellite. The observations took place over two years and covered two SAX observing cycles, respectively AO-3 and AO-4. During this time, I was employed both at Johns Hopkins University (NAG5-9995) and the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (NAG5-9533). As the research on these grants was on the same subject and my employment at JHU and UMBC has been consecutive, this document therefore covers both grants. The targets for these observations were four radio-loud quasars chosen from the first two X-ray selected samples of such objects. These were the brightest examples of the newly found class of X-ray loud flat-spectrum radio quasars, which prior to 1997, had never been seen before. However, my previous work with collaborators Paolo Padovani and Paolo Giommi on the DXRBS survey showed that they make up about 25% of the population of flat-spectrum radio quasars, but had not been seen before because of selection biases (all previous samples of these objects had been compiled in the radio). The purpose of the SAX observations was to investigate the shape of their X-ray spectrum, which would tell us where the peak of their synchrotron emission was located.
CONSTRAINTS ON THE FAINT END OF THE QUASAR LUMINOSITY FUNCTION AT z {approx} 5 IN THE COSMOS FIELD
Ikeda, H.; Matsuoka, K.; Kajisawa, M.; Nagao, T.; Taniguchi, Y.; Shioya, Y.; Enoki, M.; Capak, P.; Masters, D.; Scoville, N. Z.; Civano, F.; Koekemoer, A. M.; Morokuma, T.; Salvato, M.; Schinnerer, E.
2012-09-10
We present the result of our low-luminosity quasar survey in the redshift range of 4.5 {approx}< z {approx}< 5.5 in the COSMOS field. Using the COSMOS photometric catalog, we selected 15 quasar candidates with 22 < i' < 24 at z {approx} 5 that are {approx}3 mag fainter than the Sloan Digital Sky Survey quasars in the same redshift range. We obtained optical spectra for 14 of the 15 candidates using FOCAS on the Subaru Telescope and did not identify any low-luminosity type-1 quasars at z {approx} 5, while a low-luminosity type-2 quasar at z {approx} 5.07 was discovered. In order to constrain the faint end of the quasar luminosity function at z {approx} 5, we calculated the 1{sigma} confidence upper limits of the space density of type-1 quasars. As a result, the 1{sigma} confidence upper limits on the quasar space density are {Phi} < 1.33 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -7} Mpc{sup -3} mag{sup -1} for -24.52 < M{sub 1450} < -23.52 and {Phi} < 2.88 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -7} Mpc{sup -3} mag{sup -1} for -23.52 < M{sub 1450} < -22.52. The inferred 1{sigma} confidence upper limits of the space density are then used to provide constraints on the faint-end slope and the break absolute magnitude of the quasar luminosity function at z {approx} 5. We find that the quasar space density decreases gradually as a function of redshift at low luminosity (M{sub 1450} {approx} -23), being similar to the trend found for quasars with high luminosity (M{sub 1450} < -26). This result is consistent with the so-called downsizing evolution of quasars seen at lower redshifts.
Flamingos 2 Spectroscopy of Obscured and Unobscured Quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ridgway, Susan; Lacy, Mark; Urrutia, Tanya; Petric, Andreea
2013-08-01
We will use Flamingos-2 to obtain spectra of luminous AGN and quasars selected in the mid-infrared. Mid-infrared selection is much less biased with respect to obscuration than optical and X-ray techniques, and hence allows for finding obscured (Type-2) quasars as well as Type-1 quasars. Our survey so far has been very successful and has provided an unique opportunity to construct luminosity functions for both Type-1 and Type-2 quasars selected in the same way and covering similar redshifts and luminosities. We have quantifed the change in the obscured fraction with luminosity and redshift for the first time, and find interesting indications that at high redshift the obscured fraction rises, consistent with models for the joint formation of the galaxy and black hole populations. Our samples are, however, still quite incomplete at low fluxes (and therefore lower luminosities at a given redshift), particularly in the southern hemisphere. Near-infrared spectroscopy, such as that we have previously obtained with NIRI at Gemini N, offers us the best possibility of bringing these southern samples to a reasonable completeness level, and will greatly increase the number of high z quasars in our sample. This will allow us to better judge our tantalizing initial results on the redshift evolution of the obscured fraction. In addition, these southern targets can be followed up with ALMA and GEMS/GSAOI to study the morphologies and star-formation properties of the hosts, allowing further exploration of the relationship between the formation of massive bulges and supermassive blackholes in the early universe.
A systematic search for changing-look quasars in SDSS
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
MacLeod, Chelsea L.; Ross, Nicholas P.; Lawrence, Andy; Goad, Mike; Horne, Keith; Burgett, William; Chambers, Ken C.; Flewelling, Heather; Hodapp, Klaus; Kaiser, Nick; Magnier, Eugene; Wainscoat, Richard; Waters, Christopher
2016-03-01
We present a systematic search for changing-look quasars based on repeat photometry from Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and Pan-STARRS1, along with repeat spectra from SDSS and SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey. Objects with large, |Δg| > 1 mag photometric variations in their light curves are selected as candidates to look for changes in broad emission line (BEL) features. Out of a sample of 1011 objects that satisfy our selection criteria and have more than one epoch of spectroscopy, we find 10 examples of quasars that have variable and/or `changing-look' BEL features. Four of our objects have emerging BELs, five have disappearing BELs, and one object shows tentative evidence for having both emerging and disappearing BELs. With redshifts in the range 0.20 < z < 0.63, this sample includes the highest redshift changing-look quasars discovered to date. We highlight the quasar J102152.34+464515.6 at z = 0.204. Here, not only have the Balmer emission lines strongly diminished in prominence, including Hβ all but disappearing, but the blue continuum fν∝ν1/3 typical of an active galactic nuclei is also significantly diminished in the second epoch of spectroscopy. Using our selection criteria, we estimate that >15 per cent of strongly variable luminous quasars display changing-look BEL features on rest-frame time-scales of 8 to 10 yr. Plausible time-scales for variable dust extinction are factors of 2-10 too long to explain the dimming and brightening in these sources, and simple dust reddening models cannot reproduce the BEL changes. On the other hand, an advancement such as disc reprocessing is needed if the observed variations are due to accretion rate changes.
A Deep Multicolor Survey. II. Initial Spectroscopy and Comparison with Expected Quasar Number Counts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hall, Patrick B.; Osmer, Patrick S.; Green, Richard F.; Porter, Alain C.; Warren, Stephen J.
1996-05-01
We have used the KPNO 4 m Mayall telescope to image 0.83 deg^2^ of sky in six fields at high Galactic latitude in six filters spanning 3000- 10000 A to magnitude limits ranging from 22.1 to 23.8. As a first use of this database, we have conducted a multicolor survey for quasars. We discuss various methods of selecting outliers in different color-color diagrams and multicolor space that have been used to identify quasars at all redshifts from their colors alone. We discuss the initial results of our program of spectroscopic identification which has so far resulted in the identification of over 40 faint quasars, including one at z > 4, a similar number of compact narrow emission-line galaxies, and a number of unusual and potentially interesting stars. We use these spectroscopic results, along with extensive simulations of quasar spectra, to study the efficiency of our candidate selection procedures. Finally, we compare the number counts of our quasars and quasar candidates to the expected numbers based on previous studies of the quasar luminosity function. The agreement of our observations with these expectations is good in most cases. However, we do estimate that our survey contains more quasars with B < 21 and z < 2.3 than expected from the results published by Koo & Kron in 1988 and more z > 3 quasars than expected from the results published by Warren, Hewett, & Osmer in 1994, both at the 3 σ level. Additional spectroscopic observations will be required to confirm or refute these excesses.
Ross, Cody T; Strimling, Pontus; Ericksen, Karen Paige; Lindenfors, Patrik; Mulder, Monique Borgerhoff
2016-06-01
We present formal evolutionary models for the origins and persistence of the practice of Female Genital Modification (FGMo). We then test the implications of these models using normative cross-cultural data on FGMo in Africa and Bayesian phylogenetic methods that explicitly model adaptive evolution. Empirical evidence provides some support for the findings of our evolutionary models that the de novo origins of the FGMo practice should be associated with social stratification, and that social stratification should place selective pressures on the adoption of FGMo; these results, however, are tempered by the finding that FGMo has arisen in many cultures that have no social stratification, and that forces operating orthogonally to stratification appear to play a more important role in the cross-cultural distribution of FGMo. To explain these cases, one must consider cultural evolutionary explanations in conjunction with behavioral ecological ones. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our study for policies designed to end the practice of FGMo.
Kozlowski, Szymon; Kochanek, Christopher S.; Udalski, A.; Wyrzykowski, L.; Soszynski, I.; Szymanski, M. K.; Kubiak, M.; Pietrzynski, G.; Szewczyk, O.; Ulaczyk, K.; Poleski, R. E-mail: ckochanek@astronomy.ohio-state.ed
2010-01-10
Robust fast methods to classify variable light curves in large sky surveys are becoming increasingly important. While it is relatively straightforward to identify common periodic stars and particular transient events (supernovae, novae, microlensing events), there is no equivalent for non-periodic continuously varying sources (quasars, aperiodic stellar variability). In this paper, we present a fast method for modeling and classifying such sources. We demonstrate the method using approx86, 000 variable sources from the OGLE-II survey of the LMC and approx2700 mid-IR-selected quasar candidates from the OGLE-III survey of the LMC and SMC. We discuss the location of common variability classes in the parameter space of the model. In particular, we show that quasars occupy a distinct region of variability space, providing a simple quantitative approach to the variability selection of quasars.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kozłowski, Szymon; Kochanek, Christopher S.; Udalski, A.; Wyrzykowski, Ł.; Soszyński, I.; Szymański, M. K.; Kubiak, M.; Pietrzyński, G.; Szewczyk, O.; Ulaczyk, K.; Poleski, R.; OGLE Collaboration
2010-01-01
Robust fast methods to classify variable light curves in large sky surveys are becoming increasingly important. While it is relatively straightforward to identify common periodic stars and particular transient events (supernovae, novae, microlensing events), there is no equivalent for non-periodic continuously varying sources (quasars, aperiodic stellar variability). In this paper, we present a fast method for modeling and classifying such sources. We demonstrate the method using ~86, 000 variable sources from the OGLE-II survey of the LMC and ~2700 mid-IR-selected quasar candidates from the OGLE-III survey of the LMC and SMC. We discuss the location of common variability classes in the parameter space of the model. In particular, we show that quasars occupy a distinct region of variability space, providing a simple quantitative approach to the variability selection of quasars.
VizieR Online Data Catalog: The B3-VLA Quasar Sample (Vigotti+ 1997)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vigotti, M.; Vettolani, G.; Merighi, R.; Lahulla, J.; Pedani, M.
1997-05-01
A new low frequency radio selected Sample of 125 Quasars complete down to 100mJy at 408MHz is presented in this paper. The sample is a part of the B3-VLA sample: 1050 radiosources selected from the B3 catalogue at 408MHz and observed at the VLA (1465MHz, C and A configurations). Out of the 352 sources, identified on the POSS-I down to mr~20.0, 172 are quasar candidates. In this paper we give the final assessment of the quasar sample from spectroscopic observations of the candidates. The final complete quasar sample consists of 125 objects. Furthermore 3 Bl Lac objects have been identified and two Bl Lac candidates. (4 data files).
The Radio-loud Fraction of Quasars with Faint Optical Luminosities
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hooper, E. J.; Impey, C. D.; Foltz, C. B.; Hewett, P. C.
1994-12-01
The observed radio-loud fraction of optically selected quasars decreases for absolute blue magnitudes fainter than M_B ~ -24, a phenomenon which has been attributed to a selection effect in quasar surveys (e.g., Peacock et al. 1986, MNRAS, 218, 265). A similar decrease was found (Hooper et al. 1995, ApJ, submitted) in a sample of the optically selected Large Bright Quasar Survey (LBQS; Hewett et al. 1995, in preparation) observed at radio wavelengths. The change in radio-loud fraction within the LBQS cannot be explained by the proposed selection bias against quasars with large radio luminosities and small optical luminosities, implying that the effect is a real physical change in the quasar population. An additional sample of LBQS quasars was observed with the VLA and combined with the earlier data to verify this effect and to better determine the form of the change in radio-loud fraction. The radio-loud (8.4 GHz luminosity > 10^25 W/Hz) fraction is 2/70 (3%) for M_B fainter than -24, compared to 30/289 (10%) among the more optically luminous objects, a difference significant at the 98% confidence level.
Bielicki, Julia A; Sharland, Mike; Johnson, Alan P; Henderson, Katherine L; Cromwell, David A
2016-03-01
The objective of this study was to evaluate the ability of weighted-incidence syndromic combination antibiograms (WISCAs) to inform the selection of empirical antibiotic regimens for suspected paediatric bloodstream infections (BSIs) by comparing WISCAs derived using data from single hospitals and from a multicentre surveillance dataset. WISCAs were developed by estimating the coverage of five empirical antibiotic regimens for childhood BSI using a Bayesian decision tree. The study used microbiological data on ∼2000 bloodstream isolates collected over 2 years from 19 European hospitals. We evaluated the ability of a WISCA to show differences in regimen coverage at two exemplar hospitals. For each, a WISCA was first calculated using only their local data; a second WISCA was calculated using pooled data from all 19 hospitals. The estimated coverage of the five regimens was 72%-86% for Hospital 1 and 79%-94% for Hospital 2, based on their own data. In both cases, the best regimens could not be definitively identified because the differences in coverage were not statistically significant. For Hospital 1, coverage estimates derived using pooled data gave sufficient precision to reveal clinically important differences among regimens, including high coverage provided by a narrow-spectrum antibiotic combination. For Hospital 2, the hospital and pooled data showed signs of heterogeneity and the use of pooled data was judged not to be appropriate. The Bayesian WISCA provides a useful approach to pooling information from different sources to guide empirical therapy and could increase confidence in the selection of narrow-spectrum regimens. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Far-infrared emission in luminous quasars accompanied by nuclear outflows
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maddox, Natasha; Jarvis, M. J.; Banerji, M.; Hewett, P. C.; Bourne, N.; Dunne, L.; Dye, S.; Eales, S.; Furlanetto, C.; Maddox, S. J.; Smith, M. W. L.; Valiante, E.
2017-09-01
Combining large-area optical quasar surveys with the new far-infrared (FIR) Herschel-ATLAS Data Release 1, we search for an observational signature associated with the minority of quasars possessing bright FIR luminosities. We find that FIR-bright quasars show broad C IV emission-line blueshifts in excess of that expected from the optical luminosity alone, indicating particularly powerful nuclear outflows. The quasars show no signs of having redder optical colours than the general ensemble of optically selected quasars, ruling out differences in line-of-sight dust within the host galaxies. We postulate that these objects may be caught in a special evolutionary phase, with unobscured, high black hole accretion rates and correspondingly strong nuclear outflows. The high FIR emission found in these objects is then either a result of star formation related to the outflow, or is due to dust within the host galaxy illuminated by the quasar. We are thus directly witnessing coincident small-scale nuclear processes and galaxy-wide activity, commonly invoked in galaxy simulations that rely on feedback from quasars to influence galaxy evolution.
SDSS J0246-0825: A New Gravitationally Lensed Quasar from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey
Inada, N; Burles, S; Gregg, M D; Becker, R H; Schechter, P L; Eisenstein, D J; Oguri, M; Castander, F J; Hall, P B; Johnston, D E; Pindor, B; Richards, G T; Schneider, D P; White, R L; Brinkmann, J; Szalay, A; York, D G
2005-11-10
We report the discovery of a new two-image gravitationally lensed quasar, SDSS J024634.11-082536.2 (SDSS J0246-0825). This object was selected as a lensed quasar candidate from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) by the same algorithm that was used to discover other SDSS lensed quasars (e.g., SDSS J0924+0219). Multicolor imaging with the Magellan Consortium's Walter Baade 6.5-m telescope and the spectroscopic observations using the W. M. Keck Observatory's Keck II telescope confirm that SDSS J0246-0825 consists of two lensed images ({Delta}{theta} = 1''.04) of a source quasar at z = 1.68. Imaging observations with the Keck telescope and the Hubble Space Telescope reveal an extended object between the two quasar components, which is likely to be a lensing galaxy of this system. From the absorption lines in the spectra of quasar components and the apparent magnitude of the galaxy, combined with the expected absolute magnitude from the Faber-Jackson relation, we estimate the redshift of the lensing galaxy to be z = 0.724. A highly distorted ring is visible in the Hubble Space Telescope images, which is likely to be the lensed host galaxy of the source quasar. Simple mass modeling predicts the possibility that there is a small (faint) lensing object near the primary lensing galaxy.
Kozłowski, Szymon; Udalski, Andrzej; Szymański, M. K.; Kubiak, M.; Pietrzyński, G.; Soszyński, I.; Wyrzykowski, Ł.; Ulaczyk, K.; Poleski, R.; Pietrukowicz, P.; Skowron, J.; Onken, Christopher A.; Kochanek, Christopher S.; Meixner, M.; Bonanos, A. Z. E-mail: onken@mso.anu.edu.au; Collaboration: OGLE Collaboration
2013-10-01
The Magellanic Quasars Survey (MQS) has now increased the number of quasars known behind the Magellanic Clouds by almost an order of magnitude. All survey fields in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and 70% of those in the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) have been observed. The targets were selected from the third phase of the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment (OGLE-III) based on their optical variability, mid-IR, and/or X-ray properties. We spectroscopically confirmed 758 quasars (565 in the LMC and 193 in the SMC) behind the clouds, of which 94% (527 in the LMC and 186 in the SMC) are newly identified. The MQS quasars have long-term (12 yr and growing for OGLE), high-cadence light curves, enabling unprecedented variability studies of quasars. The MQS quasars also provide a dense reference grid for measuring both the internal and bulk proper motions of the clouds, and 50 quasars are bright enough (I ∼< 18 mag) for absorption studies of the interstellar/intergalactic medium of the clouds.
Discovery of a very Lyman-α-luminous quasar at z = 6.62
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Koptelova, Ekaterina; Hwang, Chorng-Yuan; Yu, Po-Chieh; Chen, Wen-Ping; Guo, Jhen-Kuei
2017-02-01
Distant luminous quasars provide important information on the growth of the first supermassive black holes, their host galaxies and the epoch of reionization. The identification of quasars is usually performed through detection of their Lyman-α line redshifted to 0.9 microns at z > 6.5. Here, we report the discovery of a very Lyman-α luminous quasar, PSO J006.1240 + 39.2219 at redshift z = 6.618, selected based on its red colour and multi-epoch detection of the Lyman-α emission in a single near-infrared band. The Lyman-α line luminosity of PSO J006.1240 + 39.2219 is unusually high and estimated to be 0.8 × 1012 Solar luminosities (about 3% of the total quasar luminosity). The Lyman-α emission of PSO J006.1240 + 39.2219 shows fast variability on timescales of days in the quasar rest frame, which has never been detected in any of the known high-redshift quasars. The high luminosity of the Lyman-α line, its narrow width and fast variability resemble properties of local Narrow-Line Seyfert 1 galaxies which suggests that the quasar is likely at the active phase of the black hole growth accreting close or even beyond the Eddington limit.
Discovery of a very Lyman-α-luminous quasar at z = 6.62.
Koptelova, Ekaterina; Hwang, Chorng-Yuan; Yu, Po-Chieh; Chen, Wen-Ping; Guo, Jhen-Kuei
2017-02-02
Distant luminous quasars provide important information on the growth of the first supermassive black holes, their host galaxies and the epoch of reionization. The identification of quasars is usually performed through detection of their Lyman-α line redshifted to 0.9 microns at z > 6.5. Here, we report the discovery of a very Lyman-α luminous quasar, PSO J006.1240 + 39.2219 at redshift z = 6.618, selected based on its red colour and multi-epoch detection of the Lyman-α emission in a single near-infrared band. The Lyman-α line luminosity of PSO J006.1240 + 39.2219 is unusually high and estimated to be 0.8 × 10(12) Solar luminosities (about 3% of the total quasar luminosity). The Lyman-α emission of PSO J006.1240 + 39.2219 shows fast variability on timescales of days in the quasar rest frame, which has never been detected in any of the known high-redshift quasars. The high luminosity of the Lyman-α line, its narrow width and fast variability resemble properties of local Narrow-Line Seyfert 1 galaxies which suggests that the quasar is likely at the active phase of the black hole growth accreting close or even beyond the Eddington limit.
Discovery of a very Lyman-α-luminous quasar at z = 6.62
Koptelova, Ekaterina; Hwang, Chorng-Yuan; Yu, Po-Chieh; Chen, Wen-Ping; Guo, Jhen-Kuei
2017-01-01
Distant luminous quasars provide important information on the growth of the first supermassive black holes, their host galaxies and the epoch of reionization. The identification of quasars is usually performed through detection of their Lyman-α line redshifted to 0.9 microns at z > 6.5. Here, we report the discovery of a very Lyman-α luminous quasar, PSO J006.1240 + 39.2219 at redshift z = 6.618, selected based on its red colour and multi-epoch detection of the Lyman-α emission in a single near-infrared band. The Lyman-α line luminosity of PSO J006.1240 + 39.2219 is unusually high and estimated to be 0.8 × 1012 Solar luminosities (about 3% of the total quasar luminosity). The Lyman-α emission of PSO J006.1240 + 39.2219 shows fast variability on timescales of days in the quasar rest frame, which has never been detected in any of the known high-redshift quasars. The high luminosity of the Lyman-α line, its narrow width and fast variability resemble properties of local Narrow-Line Seyfert 1 galaxies which suggests that the quasar is likely at the active phase of the black hole growth accreting close or even beyond the Eddington limit. PMID:28150701
Krogager, J.-K.; Fynbo, J. P. U.; Vestergaard, M.; Geier, S.; Venemans, B. P.; Ledoux, C.; Møller, P.; Noterdaeme, P.; Kangas, T.; Pursimo, T.; Smirnova, O.; Saturni, F. G.
2015-03-15
Quasi-stellar objects (QSOs) whose spectral energy distributions (SEDs) are reddened by dust either in their host galaxies or in intervening absorber galaxies are to a large degree missed by optical color selection criteria like the ones used by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). To overcome this bias against red QSOs, we employ a combined optical and near-infrared (near-IR) color selection. In this paper, we present a spectroscopic follow-up campaign of a sample of red candidate QSOs which were selected from the SDSS and the UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey (UKIDSS). The spectroscopic data and SDSS/UKIDSS photometry are supplemented by mid-infrared photometry from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer. In our sample of 159 candidates, 154 (97%) are confirmed to be QSOs. We use a statistical algorithm to identify sightlines with plausible intervening absorption systems and identify nine such cases assuming dust in the absorber similar to Large Magellanic Cloud sightlines. We find absorption systems toward 30 QSOs, 2 of which are consistent with the best-fit absorber redshift from the statistical modeling. Furthermore, we observe a broad range in SED properties of the QSOs as probed by the rest-frame 2 μm flux. We find QSOs with a strong excess as well as QSOs with a large deficit at rest-frame 2 μm relative to a QSO template. Potential solutions to these discrepancies are discussed. Overall, our study demonstrates the high efficiency of the optical/near-IR selection of red QSOs.
On the Radio and Optical Luminosity Evolution of Quasars
Singal, J.; Petrosian, V.; Lawrence, A.; Stawarz, L.; /JAXA, Sagamihara /Jagiellonian U., Astron. Observ.
2011-05-20
We calculate simultaneously the radio and optical luminosity evolutions of quasars, and the distribution in radio loudness R defined as the ratio of radio and optical luminosities, using a flux limited data set containing 636 quasars with radio and optical fluxes from White et al. We first note that when dealing with multivariate data it is imperative to first determine the true correlations among the variables, not those introduced by the observational selection effects, before obtaining the individual distributions of the variables. We use the methods developed by Efron and Petrosian which are designed to obtain unbiased correlations, distributions, and evolution with redshift from a data set truncated due to observational biases. It is found that as expected the population of quasars exhibits strong positive correlation between the radio and optical luminosities and that this correlation deviates from a simple linear relation in a way indicating that more luminous quasars are more radio loud. We also find that there is a strong luminosity evolution with redshift in both wavebands, with significantly higher radio than optical evolution. We conclude that the luminosity evolution obtained by arbitrarily separating the sources into radio loud (R > 10) and radio quiet (R < 10) populations introduces significant biases that skew the result considerably. We also construct the local radio and optical luminosity functions and the density evolution. Finally, we consider the distribution of the radio loudness parameter R obtained from careful treatment of the selection effects and luminosity evolutions with that obtained from the raw data without such considerations. We find a significant difference between the two distributions and no clear sign of bi-modality in the true distribution. Our results indicate therefore, somewhat surprisingly, that there is no critical switch in the efficiency of the production of disk outflows/jets between very radio quiet and very radio
A SIMPLE MODEL FOR QUASAR DEMOGRAPHICS
Conroy, Charlie; White, Martin
2013-01-10
We present a simple model for the relationship between quasars, galaxies, and dark matter halos from 0.5 < z < 6. In the model, black hole (BH) mass is linearly related to galaxy mass, and galaxies are connected to dark matter halos via empirically constrained relations. A simple 'scattered' light bulb model for quasars is adopted, wherein BHs shine at a fixed fraction of the Eddington luminosity during accretion episodes, and Eddington ratios are drawn from a lognormal distribution that is redshift independent. This model has two free, physically meaningful parameters at each redshift: the normalization of the M {sub BH}-M {sub gal} relation and the quasar duty cycle; these parameters are fit to the observed quasar luminosity function (LF) over the interval 0.5 < z < 6. This simple model provides an excellent fit to the LF at all epochs and also successfully predicts the observed projected two-point correlation of quasars from 0.5 < z < 2.5. It is significant that a single quasar duty cycle at each redshift is capable of reproducing the extant observations. The data are therefore consistent with a scenario wherein quasars are equally likely to exist in galaxies, and therefore dark matter halos, over a wide range in masses. The knee in the quasar LF is a reflection of the knee in the stellar-mass-halo-mass relation. Future constraints on the quasar LF and quasar clustering at high redshift will provide strong constraints on the model. In the model, the autocorrelation function of quasars becomes a strong function of luminosity only at the very highest luminosities and will be difficult to observe because such quasars are so rare. Cross-correlation techniques may provide useful constraints on the bias of such rare objects. The simplicity of the model allows for rapid generation of quasar mock catalogs from N-body simulations that match the observed LF and clustering to high redshift.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Denning, Peter J.
1989-01-01
In 1983 and 1984, the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) detected 5,425 stellar objects and measured their infrared spectra. In 1987 a program called AUTOCLASS used Bayesian inference methods to discover the classes present in these data and determine the most probable class of each object, revealing unknown phenomena in astronomy. AUTOCLASS has rekindled the old debate on the suitability of Bayesian methods, which are computationally intensive, interpret probabilities as plausibility measures rather than frequencies, and appear to depend on a subjective assessment of the probability of a hypothesis before the data were collected. Modern statistical methods have, however, recently been shown to also depend on subjective elements. These debates bring into question the whole tradition of scientific objectivity and offer scientists a new way to take responsibility for their findings and conclusions.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fan, Lulu; Han, Yunkun; Fang, Guanwen; Gao, Ying; Zhang, Dandan; Jiang, Xiaoming; Wu, Qiaoqian; Yang, Jun; Li, Zhao
2016-05-01
Previous studies have shown that Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer-selected hyperluminous, hot dust-obscured galaxies (Hot DOGs) are powered by highly dust-obscured, possibly Compton-thick active galactic nuclei (AGNs). High obscuration provides us a good chance to study the host morphology of the most luminous AGNs directly. We analyze the host morphology of 18 Hot DOGs at z ˜ 3 using Hubble Space Telescope/WFC3 imaging. We find that Hot DOGs have a high merger fraction (62 ± 14%). By fitting the surface brightness profiles, we find that the distribution of Sérsic indices in our Hot DOG sample peaks around 2, which suggests that most Hot DOGs have transforming morphologies. We also derive the AGN bolometric luminosity (˜1014 L ⊙) of our Hot DOG sample by using IR spectral energy distributions decomposition. The derived merger fraction and AGN bolometric luminosity relation is well consistent with the variability-based model prediction. Both the high merger fraction in an IR-luminous AGN sample and relatively low merger fraction in a UV/optical-selected, unobscured AGN sample can be expected in the merger-driven evolutionary model. Finally, we conclude that Hot DOGs are merger-driven and may represent a transit phase during the evolution of massive galaxies, transforming from the dusty starburst-dominated phase to the unobscured QSO phase.
Statistical Analysis of Quasar Light Curves from Pan-STARRS1
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hernandez, Betsy; Liu, Tingting; Gezari, Suvi
2017-01-01
We present a statistical analysis of variable quasars in the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey (PS1 MDS). PS1 MDS obtained multi-epoch images of 10 fields, each 8 square degrees in size, over 4 years, starting in May 2010. The MDS fields were observed in 5 filters (gp1, rp1, ip1, zp1, and yp1) during their season of visibility, with a typical cadence per filter of 3 days. We extracted the light curves of 670 color-selected quasars in the PS1 MDS using Point Spread Function photometry from the Image Processing Pipeline data products. From the quasar sample, we selected 104 quasars whose variability was at least 2 standard deviations higher than the non-variable reference star sample. We performed a statistical analysis of the light curves of the selected quasars in the g,r,i and z bands using a maximum likelihood method to find the best-fit Damped Random Walk parameters (sigma and tau - also incorporating the Zoghbi et al. 2013 method for uneven sampling). The resulting distributions for sigma and tau were similar to those found in previous studies of quasars.
DISCOVERING BRIGHT QUASARS AT INTERMEDIATE REDSHIFTS BASED ON OPTICAL/NEAR-INFRARED COLORS
Wu, Xue-Bing; Zuo, Wenwen; Yang, Jinyi; Yang, Qian; Wang, Feige
2013-10-01
The identification of quasars at intermediate redshifts (2.2 < z < 3.5) has been inefficient in most previous quasar surveys since the optical colors of quasars are similar to those of stars. The near-IR K-band excess technique has been suggested to overcome this difficulty. Our recent study also proposed to use optical/near-IR colors for selecting z < 4 quasars. To verify the effectiveness of this method, we selected a list of 105 unidentified bright targets with i ≤ 18.5 from the quasar candidates of SDSS DR6 with both SDSS ugriz optical and UKIDSS YJHK near-IR photometric data, which satisfy our proposed Y – K/g – z criterion and have photometric redshifts between 2.2 and 3.5 estimated from the nine-band SDSS-UKIDSS data. We observed 43 targets with the BFOSC instrument on the 2.16 m optical telescope at Xinglong station of the National Astronomical Observatory of China in the spring of 2012. We spectroscopically identified 36 targets as quasars with redshifts between 2.1 and 3.4. The high success rate of discovering these quasars in the SDSS spectroscopic surveyed area further demonstrates the robustness of both the Y – K/g – z selection criterion and the photometric redshift estimation technique. We also used the above criterion to investigate the possible stellar contamination rate among the quasar candidates of SDSS DR6, and found that the rate is much higher when selecting 3 < z < 3.5 quasar candidates than when selecting lower redshift candidates (z < 2.2). The significant improvement in the photometric redshift estimation when using the nine-band SDSS-UKIDSS data over the five-band SDSS data is demonstrated and a catalog of 7727 unidentified quasar candidates in SDSS DR6 selected with optical/near-IR colors and having photometric redshifts between 2.2 and 3.5 is provided. We also tested the Y – K/g – z selection criterion with the recently released SDSS-III/DR9 quasar catalog and found that 96.2% of 17,999 DR9 quasars with UKIDSS Y- and K
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Banerji, Manda; Alaghband-Zadeh, S.; Hewett, Paul C.; McMahon, Richard G.
2015-03-01
We present a new population of z > 2 dust-reddened, type 1 quasars with 0.5 ≲ E(B - V) ≲ 1.5, selected using near-infrared (NIR) imaging data from the UKIDSS-LAS (Large Area Survey), ESO-VHS (European Southern Obseratory-VISTA Hemisphere Survey) and WISE surveys. NIR spectra obtained using the Very Large Telescope for 24 new objects bring our total sample of spectroscopically confirmed hyperluminous (>1013 L⊙), high-redshift dusty quasars to 38. There is no evidence for reddened quasars having significantly different Hα equivalent widths relative to unobscured quasars. The average black hole masses (˜109-1010 M⊙) and bolometric luminosities (˜1047 erg s-1) are comparable to the most luminous unobscured quasars at the same redshift, but with a tail extending to very high luminosities of ˜1048 erg s-1. 66 per cent of the reddened quasars are detected at >3σ at 22 μm by WISE. The average 6-μm rest-frame luminosity is log10(L6 μm/ erg s-1) = 47.1 ± 0.4, making the objects among the mid-infrared brightest active galactic nuclei (AGN) currently known. The extinction-corrected space density estimate now extends over three magnitudes (-30 < Mi < -27) and demonstrates that the reddened quasar luminosity function is significantly flatter than that of the unobscured quasar population at z = 2-3. At the brightest magnitudes, Mi ≲ -29, the space density of our dust-reddened population exceeds that of unobscured quasars. A model where the probability that a quasar becomes dust reddened increases at high luminosity is consistent with the observations and such a dependence could be explained by an increase in luminosity and extinction during AGN-fuelling phases. The properties of our obscured type 1 quasars are distinct from the heavily obscured, Compton-thick AGN that have been identified at much fainter luminosities and we conclude that they likely correspond to a brief evolutionary phase in massive galaxy formation.
Quasar structure from microlensing in gravitationally lensed quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Morgan, Christopher Warren
2008-02-01
I analyze microlensing in gravitationally lensed quasars to yield measurements of the structure of their continuum emission regions. I first describe our lensed quasar monitoring program and RETROCAM, the auxiliary port camera I built for the 2.4m Hiltner telescope to monitor lensed quasars. I describe the application of our Monte Carlo microlensing analysis technique to SDSS 0924+0219, a system with a highly anomalous optical flux ratio. For an inclination angle i, I find an optical scale radius log[( r s /cm)[Special characters omitted.] ] = [Special characters omitted.] . I extrapolate the best-fitting light curves into the future to find a roughly 45% probability that the anomalous image (D) will brighten by at least an order of magnitude during the next decade. I expand our method to make simultaneous estimates of the time delays and structure of HE1104-1805 and QJ0158-4325, two doubly-imaged quasars with microlensing and intrinsic variability on comparable time scales. For HE1104- 1805 I find a time delay of D t AB = t A - t B = [Special characters omitted.] days and estimate a scale radius of log[( r s /cm)[Special characters omitted.] ] = [Special characters omitted.] at 0.2mm in the rest frame. I am unable to measure a time delay for QJ0158-4325, but the scale radius is log[( r s /cm) [Special characters omitted.] ] = 14.9 ±1 0.3 at 0.3mm in the rest frame. I then apply our Monte Carlo microlensing analysis technique to the optical light curves of 11 lensed quasar systems to show that quasar accretion disk sizes at 2500Å are related to black hole mass ( M BH ) by log( R 2500 /cm) = (15.7 ± 0.16) + (0.64± 0.18) log( M BH /10 9 [Special characters omitted.] ). This scaling is consistent with the expectation from thin disk theory (R 0( [Special characters omitted.] ), but it implies that black holes radiate with relatively low efficiency, log(e) = -1.54 ± 0.36 + log( L/L E ) where e=3D L / ( M c 2 ). These sizes are also larger, by a factor of ~ 3, than
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kelly, Brandon C.; Vestergaard, Marianne; Fan, Xiaohui
2009-02-01
We describe a Bayesian approach to estimating quasar black hole mass functions (BHMF) using the broad emission lines to estimate black hole mass. We show how using the broad-line mass estimates in combination with statistical techniques developed for luminosity function estimation (e.g., the 1/Va correction) leads to statistically biased results. We derive the likelihood function for the BHMF based on the broad-line mass estimates, and derive the posterior distribution for the BHMF, given the observed data. We develop our statistical approach for a flexible model where the BHMF is modeled as a mixture of Gaussian functions. Statistical inference is performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, and we describe a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to perform the MCMC. The MCMC simulates random draws from the probability distribution of the BHMF parameters, given the data, and we use a simulated data set to show how these random draws may be used to estimate the probability distribution for the BHMF. In addition, we show how the MCMC output may be used to estimate the probability distribution of any quantities derived from the BHMF, such as the peak in the space density of quasars. Our method has the advantage that it is able to constrain the BHMF even beyond the survey detection limits at the adopted confidence level, accounts for measurement errors and the intrinsic uncertainty in broad-line mass estimates, and provides a natural way of estimating the probability distribution of any quantities derived from the BHMF. We conclude by using our method to estimate the local active BHMF using the z < 0.5 Bright Quasar Survey sources. At z ~ 0.2, the quasar BHMF falls off approximately as a power law with slope ~2 for M BH gsim 108 M sun. Our analysis implies that at a given M BH, z < 0.5 broad-line quasars have a typical Eddington ratio of ~0.4 and a dispersion in Eddington ratio of lsim0.5 dex.
Discovery of a narrow line quasar
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Stocke, J.; Liebert, J.; Maccacaro, T.; Griffiths, R. E.; Steiner, J. E.
1982-01-01
A stellar object is reported which, while having X-ray and optical luminosities typical of quasars, has narrow permitted and forbidden emission lines over the observed spectral range. The narrow-line spectrum is high-excitation, the Balmer lines seem to be recombinational, and a redder optical spectrum than that of most quasars is exhibited, despite detection as a weak radio source. The object does not conform to the relationships between H-beta parameters and X-ray flux previously claimed for a large sample of the active galactic nuclei. Because reddish quasars with narrow lines, such as the object identified, may not be found by the standard techniques for the discovery of quasars, the object may be a prototype of a new class of quasars analogous to high-luminosity Seyfert type 2 galaxies. It is suggested that these objects cannot comprise more than 10% of all quasars.
Observational constraints on the structure and evolution of quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kelly, Brandon C.
2008-01-01
I use X-ray and optical data to investigate the structure of quasars, and its dependence on luminosity, redshift, black hole mass, and Eddington ratio. In order to facilitate my work, I develop new statistical methods of accounting for measurement error, non-detections, and survey selection functions. The main results of this thesis follow. (1) The statistical uncertainty in the broad line mass estimates can lead to significant artificial broadening of the observed distribution of black hole mass. (2) The z = 0.2 broad line quasar black hole mass function falls off approximately as a power law with slope ~ 2 for M BH [Special characters omitted.] 10 8 [Special characters omitted.] . (3) Radio-quiet quasars become more X-ray quiet as their optical/UV luminosity, black hole mass, or Eddington ratio increase, and more X-ray loud at higher redshift. These correlations imply that quasars emit a larger fraction of their bolometric luminosity through the accretion disk component, as compared to the corona component, as black hole mass and Eddington ratio increase. (4) The X- ray spectral slopes of radio-quiet quasars display a non-monotonic trend with Eddington ratio, where the X-ray continuum softens with increasing Eddington ratio until L/L Edd ~ 0.3, and then begins to harden. This observed non- monotonic trend may be caused by a change in the structure of the disk/corona system at L/L Edd ~ 0.3, possibly due to increased radiation pressure. (5) The characteristic time scales of quasar optical flux variations increase with increasing M BH , and are consistent with disk orbital or thermal time scales. In addition the amplitude of short time scale variability decreases with increasing M BH . I interpret quasar optical light curves as being driven by thermal fluctuations, which in turn are driven by some other underlying stochastic process with characteristic time scale long compared to the disk thermal time scale. The stochastic model I use is able to explain both short
Near-Infrared Properties of Quasar and Seyfert Host Galaxies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McLeod, Kim Katris
1995-01-01
We present near-infrared images of nearly 100 host galaxies of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN). Our quasar sample is comprised of the 50 quasars from the Palomar Green Bright Quasar Survey with redshifts z\\<= 0.3. We have restricted the redshift range to ensure adequate spatial resolution, galaxy detectability, and minimal distance-dependent effects, while still giving a large sample of objects. For lower-luminosity AGN we have chosen to image the CfA Seyfert sample. This sample is composed of 48 Seyferts, roughly equally divided among types 1, 1.5-1.9, and 2. This sample was spectroscopically selected, and, therefore, is not biased towards Seyferts with significant star formation. Taken together, these samples allow a statistical look at the continuity of host-galaxy properties over a factor of 10,000 in nuclear luminosity. We find the near-infrared light to be a good tracer of luminous mass in these galaxies. The Seyferts are found in galaxies of type S0 to Sc. The radio quiet quasars live in similar kinds of galaxies spanning the same range of mass centered around L*. However, for the most luminous quasars, there is a correlation between the minimum host-galaxy mass and the luminosity of the active nucleus. Radio-loud quasars are generally found in hosts more massive than an L* galaxy. We also detect a population of low-mass host galaxies with very low-luminosity Seyfert nuclei. The low luminosity quasars and the Seyferts both tend to lie in host galaxies seen preferentially face-on, which suggests there is a substantial amount of obscuration coplanar with the galaxian disk. The obscuration must be geometrically thick (thickness-to-radius ~1) and must cover a significant fraction of the narrow line region (r>100 pc). We have examined our images for signs of perturbations that could drive fuel toward the galaxy nucleus, but there are none we can identify at a significant level. The critical element for fueling is evidently not reflected clearly in the large scale
Near-infrared properties of quasar and Seyfert host galaxies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McLeod, Kim Katris
1994-01-01
We present near-infrared images of nearly 100 host galaxies of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN). Our quasar sample is comprised of the 50 quasars from the Palomar Green Bright Quasar Survey with redshifts z less than or equal to 0.3. We have restricted the redshift range to ensure adequate spatial resolution, galaxy detectability, and minimal distance-dependent effects, while still giving a large sample of objects. For lower-luminosity AGN we have chosen to image the CfA Seyfert sample. This sample is composed of 48 Seyferts, roughly equally divided among types 1, 1.5-1.9, and 2. This sample was spectroscopically selected, and, therefore, is not biased towards Seyferts with significant star formation. Taken together, these samples allow a statistical look at the continuity of host galaxy properties over a factor of 10,000 in nuclear luminosity. We find the near-infrared light to be a good tracer of luminous mass in these galaxies. The Seyferts are found in galaxies of type SO to Sc. The radio quiet quasars live in similar kinds of galaxies spanning the same range of mass centered around L(*). However, for the most luminous quasars, there is a correlation between the minimum host galaxy mass and the luminosity of the active nucleus. Radio-loud quasars are generally found in hosts more massive than an L(*) galaxy. We also detect a population of low mass host galaxies with very low luminosity Seyfert nuclei. The low luminosity quasars and the Seyferts both tend to lie in host galaxies seen preferentially face-on, which suggests there is a substantial amount of obscuration coplanar with the galaxian disk. The obscuration must be geometrically thick (thickness-to-radius approximately 1) and must cover a significant fraction of the narrow line region (r greater than 100 pc). We have examined our images for signs of perturbations that could drive fuel toward the galaxy nucleus, but there are none we can identify at a significant level. The critical element for fueling is
Do quasars have cosmologically long lifetimes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chanan, G. A.
1982-01-01
An alternative explanation to gravitational lensing is examined, by which problems inherent in space density evolution are avoided without invoking gravitational effects. Apparent and unreal density evolution follows as an immediate consequence, if the quasar lifetimes that are the only free parameter in the model proposed are of the order of three billion years. If such lifetimes are the case, while quasars may occur less frequently than has been thought, the local density of quasars may have been grossly underestimated.
Physical properties of luminous dust-poor quasars
Jun, Hyunsung David; Im, Myungshin E-mail: mim@astro.snu.ac.kr
2013-12-20
We identify and characterize a population of luminous, dust-poor quasars at 0 < z < 5 that is photometrically similar to objects previously found at z > 6. This class of active galactic nuclei is known to show little IR emission from dusty structure, but it is poorly understood in terms of number evolution and dependence on physical quantities. To better understand the properties of these quasars, we compile a rest-frame UV to IR library of 41,000 optically selected type 1 quasars with L {sub bol} > 10{sup 45.7} erg s{sup –1}. After fitting the broadband spectral energy distributions (SEDs) with accretion disk and dust components, we find 0.6% of our sample to be hot dust-poor, with rest-frame 2.3 μm to 0.51 μm flux density ratios of –0.5 dex or less. The dust-poor SEDs are blue in the UV-optical and weak in the mid-IR, such that their accretion disks are less obscured and the hot dust emission traces that of warm dust down to the dust-poor regime. At a given bolometric luminosity, dust-poor quasars are lower in black hole mass and higher in Eddington ratio than general luminous quasars, suggesting that they are in a rapidly growing evolutionary state in which the dust-poor phase appears as a short or rare phenomenon. The dust-poor fraction increases with redshift, and possible implications for their evolution are discussed.
Physical Properties of Luminous Dust-poor Quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jun, Hyunsung David; Im, Myungshin
2013-12-01
We identify and characterize a population of luminous, dust-poor quasars at 0 < z < 5 that is photometrically similar to objects previously found at z > 6. This class of active galactic nuclei is known to show little IR emission from dusty structure, but it is poorly understood in terms of number evolution and dependence on physical quantities. To better understand the properties of these quasars, we compile a rest-frame UV to IR library of 41,000 optically selected type 1 quasars with L bol > 1045.7 erg s-1. After fitting the broadband spectral energy distributions (SEDs) with accretion disk and dust components, we find 0.6% of our sample to be hot dust-poor, with rest-frame 2.3 μm to 0.51 μm flux density ratios of -0.5 dex or less. The dust-poor SEDs are blue in the UV-optical and weak in the mid-IR, such that their accretion disks are less obscured and the hot dust emission traces that of warm dust down to the dust-poor regime. At a given bolometric luminosity, dust-poor quasars are lower in black hole mass and higher in Eddington ratio than general luminous quasars, suggesting that they are in a rapidly growing evolutionary state in which the dust-poor phase appears as a short or rare phenomenon. The dust-poor fraction increases with redshift, and possible implications for their evolution are discussed.
Sensitive radio survey of obscured quasar candidates
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alexandroff, Rachael M.; Zakamska, Nadia L.; van Velzen, Sjoert; Greene, Jenny E.; Strauss, Michael A.
2016-12-01
We study the radio properties of moderately obscured quasars in samples at both low (z ˜ 0.5) and high (z ˜ 2.5) redshift to understand the role of radio activity in accretion, using the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (VLA) at 6.0 GHz and 1.4 GHz. Our z ˜ 2.5 sample consists of optically selected obscured quasar candidates, all of which are radio-quiet, with typical radio luminosities of νLν[1.4 GHz] ≲ 1040 erg s-1. Only a single source is individually detected in our deep (rms˜10 μJy) exposures. This population would not be identified by radio-based selection methods used for distinguishing dusty star-forming galaxies and obscured active nuclei. In our pilot A-array study of z ˜ 0.5 radio-quiet quasars, we spatially resolve four of five objects on scales ˜5 kpc and find they have steep spectral indices with an average value of α = -0.75. Therefore, radio emission in these sources could be due to jet-driven or radiatively driven bubbles interacting with interstellar material on the scale of the host galaxy. Finally, we also study the additional population of ˜200 faint ( ˜ 40 μJy-40 mJy) field radio sources observed over ˜120 arcmin2 of our data. 60 per cent of these detections (excluding our original targets) are matched in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and/or Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) and are, in roughly equal shares, active galactic nuclei (AGN) at a broad range of redshifts, passive galaxies with no other signs of nuclear activity and infrared-bright but optically faint sources. Spectroscopically or photometrically confirmed star-forming galaxies constitute only a small minority of the matches. Such sensitive radio surveys allow us to address important questions of AGN evolution and evaluate the AGN contribution to the radio-quiet sky.
Rammal, Abbas; Perrin, Eric; Vrabie, Valeriu; Assaf, Rabih; Fenniri, Hassan
2017-07-01
Infrared spectroscopy provides useful information on the molecular compositions of biological systems related to molecular vibrations, overtones, and combinations of fundamental vibrations. Mid-infrared (MIR) spectroscopy is sensitive to organic and mineral components and has attracted growing interest in the development of biomarkers related to intrinsic characteristics of lignocellulose biomass. However, not all spectral information is valuable for biomarker construction or for applying analysis methods such as classification. Better processing and interpretation can be achieved by identifying discriminating wavenumbers. The selection of wavenumbers has been addressed through several variable- or feature-selection methods. Some of them have not been adapted for use in large data sets or are difficult to tune, and others require additional information, such as concentrations. This paper proposes a new approach by combining a naïve Bayesian classifier with a genetic algorithm to identify discriminating spectral wavenumbers. The genetic algorithm uses a linear combination of an a posteriori probability and the Bayes error rate as the fitness function for optimization. Such a function allows the improvement of both the compactness and the separation of classes. This approach was tested to classify a small set of maize roots in soil according to their biodegradation process based on their MIR spectra. The results show that this optimization method allows better discrimination of the biodegradation process, compared with using the information of the entire MIR spectrum, the use of the spectral information at wavenumbers selected by a genetic algorithm based on a classical validity index or the use of the spectral information selected by combining a genetic algorithm with other methods, such as Linear Discriminant Analysis. The proposed method selects wavenumbers that correspond to principal vibrations of chemical functional groups of compounds that undergo degradation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Assef, R. J.; Eisenhardt, P. R. M.; Stern, D.; Tsai, C.-W.; Wu, J.; Wylezalek, D.; Blain, A. W.; Bridge, C. R.; Donoso, E.; Gonzales, A.; Griffith, R. L.; Jarrett, T. H.
2015-05-01
The Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer mission has unveiled a rare population of high-redshift (z = 1-4.6), dusty, hyper-luminous galaxies, with infrared luminosities {{L}IR}\\gt {{10}13} {{L}⊙ }, and sometimes exceeding {{10}14} {{L}⊙ }. Previous work has shown that their dust temperatures and overall far-infrared spectral energy distributions (SEDs) are significantly hotter than expected to be powered by star formation. We present here an analysis of the rest-frame optical through mid-infrared SEDs for a large sample of these so-called “hot, dust-obscured galaxies” (Hot DOGs). We find that the SEDs of Hot DOGs are generally well modeled by the combination of a luminous, yet obscured active galactic nuclei (AGNs) that dominates the rest-frame emission at λ \\gt 1 μ m and the bolometric luminosity output, and a less luminous host galaxy that is responsible for the bulk of the rest optical/UV emission. Even though the stellar mass of the host galaxies may be as large as 1011-1012 M⊙, the AGN emission, with a range of luminosities comparable to those of the most luminous QSOs known, require that either Hot DOGs have black hole masses significantly in excess of the local relations, or that they radiate significantly above the Eddington limit, at a level at least 10 times more efficiently than z ˜ 2 QSOs. We show that, while rare, the number density of Hot DOGs is comparable to that of equally luminous but unobscured (i.e., Type 1) QSOs. This may be at odds with the trend suggested at lower luminosities for the fraction of obscured AGNs to decrease with increasing luminosity. That trend may, instead, reverse at higher luminosities. Alternatively, Hot DOGs may not be the torus-obscured counterparts of the known optically selected, largely unobscured, hyper-luminous QSOs, and may represent a new component of the galaxy evolution paradigm. Finally, we discuss the environments of Hot DOGs and statistically show that these objects are in regions as dense as
Quasars and Active Galaxies: A Reading List.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Fraknoi, Andrew
1988-01-01
Contains the annotated bibliographies of introductory books and sections of books, recent introductory articles, more advanced articles, and more advanced books dealing with quasars and active galaxies. (CW)
Quasars and Active Galaxies: A Reading List.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Fraknoi, Andrew
1988-01-01
Contains the annotated bibliographies of introductory books and sections of books, recent introductory articles, more advanced articles, and more advanced books dealing with quasars and active galaxies. (CW)
Quasar redshifts: the intrinsic component
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hansen, Peter M.
2016-09-01
The large observed redshift of quasars has suggested large cosmological distances and a corresponding enormous energy output to explain the brightness or luminosity as seen at earth. Alternative or complementary sources of redshift have not been identified by the astronomical community. This study examines one possible source of additional redshift: an intrinsic component based on the plasma characteristics of high temperature and high electron density which are believed to be present.
OPTOPUS observations of quasar candidates.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cristiani, S.
1987-06-01
OPTOPUS is a fiber-optic instrument for multiple-object spectroscopy with the Boiler & Chivens spectrograph and a CCD detector at the 3.6-m telescope. The system has been described in detail by the Optical Instrumentation Group (1985, The Messenger 41,25). Its application for observing Halley's comet has been reported by Lund and Surdej (1986, The Messenger 43, 1). Here another "classical" use of multiple-object spectroscopy is presented: followup observations of quasar candidates.
Simultaneous Estimation of Time Delays and Quasar Structure
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Morgan, Christopher W.; Eyler, Michael E.; Kochanek, C. S.; Morgan, Nicholas D.; Falco, Emilio E.; Vuissoz, C.; Courbin, F.; Meylan, G.
2008-03-01
We expand our Bayesian Monte Carlo method for analyzing the light curves of gravitationally lensed quasars to simultaneously estimate time delays and the sizes of quasar continuum emission regions including their mutual uncertainties. We apply the method to HE1104-1805 and QJ0158-4325, two doubly imaged quasars with microlensing and intrinsic variability on comparable timescales. For HE1104-1805 the resulting time delay of Δ tAB = tA - tB = 162.2-5.9+6.3 days and accretion disk size estimate of log {(rs/cm) [cos (i)/0.5]1/2} = 15.7-0.5+0.4 at 0.2 μm in the rest frame and for inclination i are consistent with earlier estimates but suggest that existing methods for estimating time delays in the presence of microlensing underestimate the uncertainties. We are unable to measure a time delay for QJ0158-4325, but the accretion disk size is log {(rs/cm) [cos (i)/0.5]1/2} = 14.9 +/- 0.3 at 0.3 μm in the rest frame. Based on observations obtained with the Small and Moderate Aperture Research Telescope System (SMARTS) 1.3 m, which is operated by the SMARTS Consortium, and observations made with the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope for program HST-GO-9744 of the Space Telescope Science Institute, which is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under NASA contract NAS 5-26555.
Bayesian sparse channel estimation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Chulong; Zoltowski, Michael D.
2012-05-01
In Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) systems, the technique used to estimate and track the time-varying multipath channel is critical to ensure reliable, high data rate communications. It is recognized that wireless channels often exhibit a sparse structure, especially for wideband and ultra-wideband systems. In order to exploit this sparse structure to reduce the number of pilot tones and increase the channel estimation quality, the application of compressed sensing to channel estimation is proposed. In this article, to make the compressed channel estimation more feasible for practical applications, it is investigated from a perspective of Bayesian learning. Under the Bayesian learning framework, the large-scale compressed sensing problem, as well as large time delay for the estimation of the doubly selective channel over multiple consecutive OFDM symbols, can be avoided. Simulation studies show a significant improvement in channel estimation MSE and less computing time compared to the conventional compressed channel estimation techniques.
Vrieze, Scott I.
2012-01-01
This article reviews the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) in model selection and the appraisal of psychological theory. The focus is on latent variable models given their growing use in theory testing and construction. We discuss theoretical statistical results in regression and illustrate more important issues with novel simulations involving latent variable models including factor analysis, latent profile analysis, and factor mixture models. Asymptotically, the BIC is consistent, in that it will select the true model if, among other assumptions, the true model is among the candidate models considered. The AIC is not consistent under these circumstances. When the true model is not in the candidate model set the AIC is effcient, in that it will asymptotically choose whichever model minimizes the mean squared error of prediction/estimation. The BIC is not effcient under these circumstances. Unlike the BIC, the AIC also has a minimax property, in that it can minimize the maximum possible risk in finite sample sizes. In sum, the AIC and BIC have quite different properties that require different assumptions, and applied researchers and methodologists alike will benefit from improved understanding of the asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of these criteria. The ultimate decision to use AIC or BIC depends on many factors, including: the loss function employed, the study's methodological design, the substantive research question, and the notion of a true model and its applicability to the study at hand. PMID:22309957
Vrieze, Scott I
2012-06-01
This article reviews the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) in model selection and the appraisal of psychological theory. The focus is on latent variable models, given their growing use in theory testing and construction. Theoretical statistical results in regression are discussed, and more important issues are illustrated with novel simulations involving latent variable models including factor analysis, latent profile analysis, and factor mixture models. Asymptotically, the BIC is consistent, in that it will select the true model if, among other assumptions, the true model is among the candidate models considered. The AIC is not consistent under these circumstances. When the true model is not in the candidate model set the AIC is efficient, in that it will asymptotically choose whichever model minimizes the mean squared error of prediction/estimation. The BIC is not efficient under these circumstances. Unlike the BIC, the AIC also has a minimax property, in that it can minimize the maximum possible risk in finite sample sizes. In sum, the AIC and BIC have quite different properties that require different assumptions, and applied researchers and methodologists alike will benefit from improved understanding of the asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of these criteria. The ultimate decision to use the AIC or BIC depends on many factors, including the loss function employed, the study's methodological design, the substantive research question, and the notion of a true model and its applicability to the study at hand.
Papathomas, Michail; Richardson, Sylvia
2016-06-01
This manuscript is concerned with relating two approaches that can be used to explore complex dependence structures between categorical variables, namely Bayesian partitioning of the covariate space incorporating a variable selection procedure that highlights the covariates that drive the clustering, and log-linear modelling with interaction terms. We derive theoretical results on this relation and discuss if they can be employed to assist log-linear model determination, demonstrating advantages and limitations with simulated and real data sets. The main advantage concerns sparse contingency tables. Inferences from clustering can potentially reduce the number of covariates considered and, subsequently, the number of competing log-linear models, making the exploration of the model space feasible. Variable selection within clustering can inform on marginal independence in general, thus allowing for a more efficient exploration of the log-linear model space. However, we show that the clustering structure is not informative on the existence of interactions in a consistent manner. This work is of interest to those who utilize log-linear models, as well as practitioners such as epidemiologists that use clustering models to reduce the dimensionality in the data and to reveal interesting patterns on how covariates combine.
Ross, Nicholas P.; White, Martin; Bailey, Stephen; McGreer, Ian D.; Richards, Gordon T.; Myers, Adam D.; Palanque-Delabrouille, Nathalie; Yeche, Christophe; Strauss, Michael A.; Anderson, Scott F.; Shen, Yue; Swanson, Molly E. C.; Brandt, W. N.; Aubourg, Eric; Bovy, Jo; DeGraf, Colin; Di Matteo, Tiziana; and others
2013-08-10
We present a new measurement of the optical quasar luminosity function (QLF), using data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey-III: Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (SDSS-III: BOSS). From the SDSS-III Data Release Nine, a uniform sample of 22,301 i {approx}< 21.8 quasars are selected over an area of 2236 deg{sup 2}, with confirmed spectroscopic redshifts between 2.2 < z < 3.5, filling in a key part of the luminosity-redshift plane for optical quasar studies. The completeness of the survey is derived through simulated quasar photometry, and this completeness estimate is checked using a sample of quasars selected by their photometric variability within the BOSS footprint. We investigate the level of systematics associated with our quasar sample using the simulations, in the process generating color-redshift relations and a new quasar K-correction. We probe the faint end of the QLF to M{sub i} (z = 2.2) Almost-Equal-To -24.5 and see a clear break in the QLF at all redshifts up to z = 3.5. A log-linear relation (in log {Phi}* - M*) for a luminosity evolution and density evolution model is found to adequately describe our data within the range 2.2 < z < 3.5; across this interval the break luminosity increases by a factor of {approx}2.6 while {Phi}* declines by a factor of {approx}8. At z {approx}< 2.2 our data are reasonably well fit by a pure luminosity evolution model, and only a weak signature of ''AGN downsizing'' is seen, in line with recent studies of the hard X-ray luminosity function. We compare our measured QLF to a number of theoretical models and find that models making a variety of assumptions about quasar triggering and halo occupation can fit our data over a wide range of redshifts and luminosities.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kennefick, Julia D.; Osmer, Patrick S.; Hall, Patrick B.; Green, Richard F.
1997-12-01
We have made spectroscopic identifications of 39 additional quasar candidates from the Deep Multicolor Survey (DMS) of Hall et al. (1996, ApJ, 462, 614). We have identified 9 new quasars with O.3<ζ<2.8 and l6.8<Β<21.6, all from the group of candidates with ultraviolet excess (UVX). No new quasars with ζ >3 were found among the observed candidates selected due to their red (B - R) and (V- R) colors. As a result, there are now 55 confirmed quasars in the survey: 42 with 0.3<ζ<2, nine with 2<ζ<3, three with 3<ζ<4, and 1 at ζ=4.3. One new quasar, DMS 0059-0055, is very bright with Β 16.8 and ζ=0.3, making its detection by our survey very unexpected. Including this new spectroscopy, the results of the DMS are converging with the predicted space densities of other surveys. In particular, we no longer find an excess of quasars with ζ<2.3 and Β<21 in the survey over predictions based on models by Koo & Kron (1988, ApJ, 325, 92). Also, the excess in the number of quasars seen at z>3 over predictions based on models by Warren et al. (1994, ApJ, 421, 412) is less than previously suggested. We also demonstrate the success of our quasar color modeling which is important in assessing the completeness of our survey.
No Overdensity of Lyman-Alpha Emitting Galaxies around a Quasar at z ∼ 5.7
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mazzucchelli, C.; Bañados, E.; Decarli, R.; Farina, E. P.; Venemans, B. P.; Walter, F.; Overzier, R.
2017-01-01
Bright quasars, observed when the universe was less than one billion years old (z > 5.5), are known to host massive black holes (∼109 M⊙) and are thought to reside in the center of massive dark matter overdensities. In this picture, overdensities of galaxies are expected around high-redshift quasars. However, observations based on the detection of Lyman-break galaxies (LBGs) around these quasars do not offer a clear picture: this may be due to the uncertain redshift constraints of LBGs, which are solely selected through broadband filters. To circumvent such uncertainties, we here perform a search for Lyman-alpha emitting galaxies (LAEs) in the field of the quasar PSO J215.1512–16.0417 at z ∼ 5.73, through narrowband deep imaging with FORS2 at the Very Large Telescope. We study an area of 37 arcmin2, i.e., ∼206 comoving Mpc2 at the redshift of the quasar. We find no evidence of an overdensity of LAEs in the quasar field with respect to blank-field studies. Possible explanations for these findings may be that our survey volume is too small, or that the strong ionizing radiation from the quasar hinders galaxy formation in its immediate proximity. Another possibility is that these quasars are not situated in the dense environments predicted by some simulations.
Tsai, Miao-Yu
2015-03-01
The problem of variable selection in the generalized linear-mixed models (GLMMs) is pervasive in statistical practice. For the purpose of variable selection, many methodologies for determining the best subset of explanatory variables currently exist according to the model complexity and differences between applications. In this paper, we develop a "higher posterior probability model with bootstrap" (HPMB) approach to select explanatory variables without fitting all possible GLMMs involving a small or moderate number of explanatory variables. Furthermore, to save computational load, we propose an efficient approximation approach with Laplace's method and Taylor's expansion to approximate intractable integrals in GLMMs. Simulation studies and an application of HapMap data provide evidence that this selection approach is computationally feasible and reliable for exploring true candidate genes and gene-gene associations, after adjusting for complex structures among clusters. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
The average size and temperature profile of quasar accretion disks
Jiménez-Vicente, J.; Mediavilla, E.; Muñoz, J. A.; Motta, V.; Falco, E.
2014-03-01
We use multi-wavelength microlensing measurements of a sample of 10 image pairs from 8 lensed quasars to study the structure of their accretion disks. By using spectroscopy or narrowband photometry, we have been able to remove contamination from the weakly microlensed broad emission lines, extinction, and any uncertainties in the large-scale macro magnification of the lens model. We determine a maximum likelihood estimate for the exponent of the size versus wavelength scaling (r{sub s} ∝λ {sup p}, corresponding to a disk temperature profile of T∝r {sup –1/p}) of p=0.75{sub −0.2}{sup +0.2} and a Bayesian estimate of p = 0.8 ± 0.2, which are significantly smaller than the prediction of the thin disk theory (p = 4/3). We have also obtained a maximum likelihood estimate for the average quasar accretion disk size of r{sub s}=4.5{sub −1.2}{sup +1.5} lt-day at a rest frame wavelength of λ = 1026 Å for microlenses with a mean mass of M = 1 M {sub ☉}, in agreement with previous results, and larger than expected from thin disk theory.
Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis.
Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen
2014-01-01
This article considers Bayesian model averaging as a means of addressing uncertainty in the selection of variables in the propensity score equation. We investigate an approximate Bayesian model averaging approach based on the model-averaged propensity score estimates produced by the R package BMA but that ignores uncertainty in the propensity score. We also provide a fully Bayesian model averaging approach via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling (MCMC) to account for uncertainty in both parameters and models. A detailed study of our approach examines the differences in the causal estimate when incorporating noninformative versus informative priors in the model averaging stage. We examine these approaches under common methods of propensity score implementation. In addition, we evaluate the impact of changing the size of Occam's window used to narrow down the range of possible models. We also assess the predictive performance of both Bayesian model averaging propensity score approaches and compare it with the case without Bayesian model averaging. Overall, results show that both Bayesian model averaging propensity score approaches recover the treatment effect estimates well and generally provide larger uncertainty estimates, as expected. Both Bayesian model averaging approaches offer slightly better prediction of the propensity score compared with the Bayesian approach with a single propensity score equation. Covariate balance checks for the case study show that both Bayesian model averaging approaches offer good balance. The fully Bayesian model averaging approach also provides posterior probability intervals of the balance indices.
Host Galaxies of z = 4 Quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McLeod, K. K.; Bechtold, Jill
2009-10-01
We have undertaken a project to investigate the host galaxies and environments of a sample of quasars at z ~ 4. In this paper, we describe deep near-infrared imaging of 34 targets using the Magellan I and Gemini North telescopes. We discuss in detail special challenges of distortion and nonlinearity that must be addressed when performing point-spread function (PSF) subtraction with data from these telescopes and their IR cameras, especially in very good seeing. We derive black hole masses from emission-line spectroscopy, and we calculate accretion rates from our Ks -band photometry, which directly samples the rest frame B for these objects. We introduce a new isophotal diameter technique for estimating host galaxy luminosities. We report the detection of four host galaxies on our deepest, sharpest images, and present upper limits for the others. We find that if host galaxies passively evolve such that they brighten by 2 mag or more in the rest-frame B band between the present and z = 4, then high-z hosts are less massive at a given black hole mass than are their low-z counterparts. We argue that the most massive hosts plateau at lsim10 L*. We estimate the importance of selection effects on this survey and the subsequent limitations of our conclusions. These results are in broad agreement with recent semianalytical models for the formation of luminous quasars and their host spheroids by mergers of gas-rich galaxies, with significant dissipation, and self-regulation of black hole growth and star formation by the burst of merger-induced quasar activity. Based on data obtained with the 6.5 m Baade Telescope of the Magellan Telescope, located at the Las Campans Observatory, Chile. Based in part on data taken at the W. M. Keck Observatory, which is operated as a scientific partnership among the California Institute of Technology, the University of California, and NASA, and was made possible by the generous financial support of the W. M. Keck Foundation.
The ISO view of Palomar-Green quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Haas, M.; Klaas, U.; Müller, S. A. H.; Bertoldi, F.; Camenzind, M.; Chini, R.; Krause, O.; Lemke, D.; Meisenheimer, K.; Richards, P. J.; Wilkes, B. J.
2003-04-01
Mining the ISO data archive we provide the complete ISO view of PG quasars containing 64 infrared spectral energy distributions between 5 and 200 mu m. About half of the sample was supplemented by MAMBO and SCUBA (sub-)millimetre data. Since the PG quasars were selected optically, the high infrared detection rate of more than 80% suggests that every quasar possesses luminous to hyperluminous dust emission with dust masses comparable to Seyferts and ultraluminous IR galaxies (ULIRGs). The gas-to-dust mass ratio (of those sources where CO measurements are available in the literature) is consistent with the galactic value providing further evidence for the thermal nature of the IR emission of radio quiet quasars. The SEDs represent templates of unprecedented detail and sensitivity. The power-law like near- to mid-IR SEDs (Fnu ~ nu alpha) are smooth up to far-infrared wavelengths, favouring dust heating by the central AGN, and we conclude that, in particular for our hyperluminous quasars at z=1, starbursts play only a minor role for powering the dust emission, even in the FIR. The IR spectral slopes alpha1-10 μm range from -0.9 to -2.2 with a mean of -1.3 +/- 0.3. They neither correlate with the optical spectral slope alpha0.3-1 μm, nor with the IR luminosity, nor with the FIR/MIR luminosity ratio, nor with inclination-dependent extinction effects in the picture of a dusty torus. We suggest that the diversity of the SEDs reflects largely the evolution of the dust distribution, and we propose a classification of the SED shapes as well as an evolutionary scheme in which this variety can be understood. During the evolution the surrounding dust redistributes, settling more and more into a torus/disk like configuration, while the SEDs show an initial FIR bump, then an increasing MIR emission and a steeper near- to mid-infrared slope, both of which finally also decrease. Strikingly, based on the sensitive ISO data now we do not only see the coarse IR differences between
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mitchell, K. J.; Warnock, A., III; Usher, P. D.
1984-01-01
A new medium-bright quasar sample (MBQS) is constructed from spectroscopic observations of 140 bright objects selected for varying degrees of blue and ultraviolet excess (B-UVX) in five Palomar 1.2 m Schmidt fields. The MBQS contains 32 quasars with B less than 17.65 mag. The new integral surface densities in the B range from 16.45 to 17.65 mag are approximately 40 percent (or more) higher than expected. The MBQS and its redshift distribution increase the area of the Hubble diagram covered by complete samples of quasars. The general spectroscopic results indicate that the three-color classification process used to catalog the spectroscopic candidates (1) has efficiently separated the intrinsically B-UVX stellar objects from the Population II subdwarfs and (2) has produced samples of B-UVX objects which are more complete than samples selected by (U - B) color alone.
Kuiper, Rebecca M; Nederhoff, Tim; Klugkist, Irene
2015-05-01
In this paper, the performance of six types of techniques for comparisons of means is examined. These six emerge from the distinction between the method employed (hypothesis testing, model selection using information criteria, or Bayesian model selection) and the set of hypotheses that is investigated (a classical, exploration-based set of hypotheses containing equality constraints on the means, or a theory-based limited set of hypotheses with equality and/or order restrictions). A simulation study is conducted to examine the performance of these techniques. We demonstrate that, if one has specific, a priori specified hypotheses, confirmation (i.e., investigating theory-based hypotheses) has advantages over exploration (i.e., examining all possible equality-constrained hypotheses). Furthermore, examining reasonable order-restricted hypotheses has more power to detect the true effect/non-null hypothesis than evaluating only equality restrictions. Additionally, when investigating more than one theory-based hypothesis, model selection is preferred over hypothesis testing. Because of the first two results, we further examine the techniques that are able to evaluate order restrictions in a confirmatory fashion by examining their performance when the homogeneity of variance assumption is violated. Results show that the techniques are robust to heterogeneity when the sample sizes are equal. When the sample sizes are unequal, the performance is affected by heterogeneity. The size and direction of the deviations from the baseline, where there is no heterogeneity, depend on the effect size (of the means) and on the trend in the group variances with respect to the ordering of the group sizes. Importantly, the deviations are less pronounced when the group variances and sizes exhibit the same trend (e.g., are both increasing with group number). © 2014 The British Psychological Society.
Quasar Lifetimes and Black Hole Spins
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rafiee, Alireza; Hall, P. B.
2007-12-01
Wang et al. (2006) estimated a high average radiative efficiency of 30% to 35% for quasars (actively accreting black holes) at moderate redshift, strongly suggesting that all supermassive black holes are rotating very rapidly. Their method for determining radiative efficiencies has two advantages: it deals with changes in quantities rather than absolutes and it is independent of obscured sources. However, we have investigated the reliability of the assumptions made by Wang et al. and have found that their method is not independent of quasar lifetimes. Nonetheless, given constraints on quasar lifetimes, their method can be used to constrain quasar radiative efficiencies and black hole spins. Conversely, the range of radiative efficiencies possible for the full range of black hole spins can be used to constrain the average lifetimes of quasars (assuming that luminous quasars are not powered by radiatively inefficient accretion flows). We will present interrelated constraints on quasar lifetimes, Eddington ratios and radiative efficiencies (black hole spins) from a statistically complete sample of SDSS quasars with black hole mass estimates from Mg II. PBH and AR are supported in part by NSERC.
Quasars: Active nuclei of young galaxies
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Komberg, B. V.
1980-01-01
The hypothetical properties of 'young' galaxies and possible methods of observing them are discussed. It is proposed that star formation first takes place in the central regions of protogalaxies which may appear as quasar-like objects. An evolutionary scheme is outlined in which the radio quasars are transformed in time into the nuclei of radio galaxies.
Chandra Observations of 12 Luminous Red Quasars
Urrutia, T; Lacy, M; Gregg, M D; Becker, R H
2005-03-11
The authors present results of a study of 12 dust-reddened quasars with 0.4 < z < 2.65 and reddenings in the range 0.15 < E(B-V) < 1.7. They obtained ACIS-S X-ray spectra of these quasars, estimated the column densities towards them, and hence obtained the gas:dust ratios in the material obscuring the quasar. They detect all but one of the red quasars in the X-rays. Even though there is no obvious correlation between the X-ray determined column densities of the sources and their optical color or reddening, all of the sources show absorbed X-ray spectra. When they correct the luminosity for absorption, they can be placed among luminous quasars; therefore their objects belong to the group of high luminosity analogues of the sources contributing to the X-ray background seen in deep X-ray observations. Such sources are also found in serendipitous shallow X-ray surveys. There is a hint that the mean spectral slope of the red quasar is higher than that of normal, unobscured quasars, which could be an indication for higher accretion rates and/or an evolutionary effect. They investigate the number density of these sources compared to type 2 AGN based on the X-ray background and estimate how many moderate luminosity red quasars may be found in deep X-ray fields.
Quasars at Cosmic Dawn: Discoveries and Probes of the Early Universe
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Feige; Wu, Xue-Bing; Fan, Xiaohui; Yang, Jinyi; Bian, Fuyan; McGreer, Ian D.; Green, Richard F.; Yang, Qian; Jiang, Linhua; Wang, Ran; DECaLS Team; UHS Team
2017-01-01
High redshift quasars, as the most luminous non-transient objects in the early universe, are the most promising tracers to address the history of cosmic reionization and how the origins of super-massive black hole (SMBH) are linked to galaxy formation and evolution. Over the last fifteen years, more than 100 quasars within the first billion years after the Big Bang have been discovered with the highest redshift at 7.1. We have developed a new method to select z>~6 quasars with both high efficiency and high completeness by combing optical and mid-IR Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) photometric data. We have applied this method to SDSS footprint and resulted in the discovery of the most luminous z>6 quasar ever discovered,