A Flexible Spatio-Temporal Model for Air Pollution with Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Covariates.

PubMed

Lindström, Johan; Szpiro, Adam A; Sampson, Paul D; Oron, Assaf P; Richards, Mark; Larson, Tim V; Sheppard, Lianne

2014-09-01

The development of models that provide accurate spatio-temporal predictions of ambient air pollution at small spatial scales is of great importance for the assessment of potential health effects of air pollution. Here we present a spatio-temporal framework that predicts ambient air pollution by combining data from several different monitoring networks and deterministic air pollution model(s) with geographic information system (GIS) covariates. The model presented in this paper has been implemented in an R package, SpatioTemporal, available on CRAN. The model is used by the EPA funded Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) to produce estimates of ambient air pollution; MESA Air uses the estimates to investigate the relationship between chronic exposure to air pollution and cardiovascular disease. In this paper we use the model to predict long-term average concentrations of NO x in the Los Angeles area during a ten year period. Predictions are based on measurements from the EPA Air Quality System, MESA Air specific monitoring, and output from a source dispersion model for traffic related air pollution (Caline3QHCR). Accuracy in predicting long-term average concentrations is evaluated using an elaborate cross-validation setup that accounts for a sparse spatio-temporal sampling pattern in the data, and adjusts for temporal effects. The predictive ability of the model is good with cross-validated R 2 of approximately 0.7 at subject sites. Replacing four geographic covariate indicators of traffic density with the Caline3QHCR dispersion model output resulted in very similar prediction accuracy from a more parsimonious and more interpretable model. Adding traffic-related geographic covariates to the model that included Caline3QHCR did not further improve the prediction accuracy.

A dynamic spatio-temporal model for spatial data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Hanks, Ephraim M.; Russell, Robin; Walsh, Daniel P.

2017-01-01

Analyzing spatial data often requires modeling dependencies created by a dynamic spatio-temporal data generating process. In many applications, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is used with a random effect to account for spatial dependence and to provide optimal spatial predictions. Location-specific covariates are often included as fixed effects in a GLMM and may be collinear with the spatial random effect, which can negatively affect inference. We propose a dynamic approach to account for spatial dependence that incorporates scientific knowledge of the spatio-temporal data generating process. Our approach relies on a dynamic spatio-temporal model that explicitly incorporates location-specific covariates. We illustrate our approach with a spatially varying ecological diffusion model implemented using a computationally efficient homogenization technique. We apply our model to understand individual-level and location-specific risk factors associated with chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer from Wisconsin, USA and estimate the location the disease was first introduced. We compare our approach to several existing methods that are commonly used in spatial statistics. Our spatio-temporal approach resulted in a higher predictive accuracy when compared to methods based on optimal spatial prediction, obviated confounding among the spatially indexed covariates and the spatial random effect, and provided additional information that will be important for containing disease outbreaks.

A Bayesian spatio-temporal model for forecasting the prevalence of antibodies to Borrelia burgdorferi, causative agent of Lyme disease, in domestic dogs within the contiguous United States.

PubMed

Watson, Stella C; Liu, Yan; Lund, Robert B; Gettings, Jenna R; Nordone, Shila K; McMahan, Christopher S; Yabsley, Michael J

2017-01-01

This paper models the prevalence of antibodies to Borrelia burgdorferi in domestic dogs in the United States using climate, geographic, and societal factors. We then use this model to forecast the prevalence of antibodies to B. burgdorferi in dogs for 2016. The data available for this study consists of 11,937,925 B. burgdorferi serologic test results collected at the county level within the 48 contiguous United States from 2011-2015. Using the serologic data, a baseline B. burgdorferi antibody prevalence map was constructed through the use of spatial smoothing techniques after temporal aggregation; i.e., head-banging and Kriging. In addition, several covariates purported to be associated with B. burgdorferi prevalence were collected on the same spatio-temporal granularity, and include forestation, elevation, water coverage, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, population density, and median household income. A Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to analyze these data, for the purposes of identifying significant risk factors and for constructing disease forecasts. The fidelity of the forecasting technique was assessed using historical data, and a Lyme disease forecast for dogs in 2016 was constructed. The correlation between the county level model and baseline B. burgdorferi antibody prevalence estimates from 2011 to 2015 is 0.894, illustrating that the Bayesian spatio-temporal CAR model provides a good fit to these data. The fidelity of the forecasting technique was assessed in the usual fashion; i.e., the 2011-2014 data was used to forecast the 2015 county level prevalence, with comparisons between observed and predicted being made. The weighted (to acknowledge sample size) correlation between 2015 county level observed prevalence and 2015 forecasted prevalence is 0.978. A forecast for the prevalence of B. burgdorferi antibodies in domestic dogs in 2016 is also provided. The forecast presented from this model can be

A Bayesian spatio-temporal model for forecasting the prevalence of antibodies to Borrelia burgdorferi, causative agent of Lyme disease, in domestic dogs within the contiguous United States

PubMed Central

Watson, Stella C.; Liu, Yan; Lund, Robert B.; Gettings, Jenna R.; Nordone, Shila K.; McMahan, Christopher S.

2017-01-01

This paper models the prevalence of antibodies to Borrelia burgdorferi in domestic dogs in the United States using climate, geographic, and societal factors. We then use this model to forecast the prevalence of antibodies to B. burgdorferi in dogs for 2016. The data available for this study consists of 11,937,925 B. burgdorferi serologic test results collected at the county level within the 48 contiguous United States from 2011-2015. Using the serologic data, a baseline B. burgdorferi antibody prevalence map was constructed through the use of spatial smoothing techniques after temporal aggregation; i.e., head-banging and Kriging. In addition, several covariates purported to be associated with B. burgdorferi prevalence were collected on the same spatio-temporal granularity, and include forestation, elevation, water coverage, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, population density, and median household income. A Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to analyze these data, for the purposes of identifying significant risk factors and for constructing disease forecasts. The fidelity of the forecasting technique was assessed using historical data, and a Lyme disease forecast for dogs in 2016 was constructed. The correlation between the county level model and baseline B. burgdorferi antibody prevalence estimates from 2011 to 2015 is 0.894, illustrating that the Bayesian spatio-temporal CAR model provides a good fit to these data. The fidelity of the forecasting technique was assessed in the usual fashion; i.e., the 2011-2014 data was used to forecast the 2015 county level prevalence, with comparisons between observed and predicted being made. The weighted (to acknowledge sample size) correlation between 2015 county level observed prevalence and 2015 forecasted prevalence is 0.978. A forecast for the prevalence of B. burgdorferi antibodies in domestic dogs in 2016 is also provided. The forecast presented from this model can be

Applying spatio-temporal models to assess variations across health care areas and regions: Lessons from the decentralized Spanish National Health System.

PubMed

Librero, Julián; Ibañez, Berta; Martínez-Lizaga, Natalia; Peiró, Salvador; Bernal-Delgado, Enrique

2017-01-01

To illustrate the ability of hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal models in capturing different geo-temporal structures in order to explain hospital risk variations using three different conditions: Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI), Colectomy in Colorectal Cancer (CCC) and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). This is an observational population-based spatio-temporal study, from 2002 to 2013, with a two-level geographical structure, Autonomous Communities (AC) and Health Care Areas (HA). The Spanish National Health System, a quasi-federal structure with 17 regional governments (AC) with full responsibility in planning and financing, and 203 HA providing hospital and primary care to a defined population. A poisson-log normal mixed model in the Bayesian framework was fitted using the INLA efficient estimation procedure. The spatio-temporal hospitalization relative risks, the evolution of their variation, and the relative contribution (fraction of variation) of each of the model components (AC, HA, year and interaction AC-year). Following PCI-CCC-CODP order, the three conditions show differences in the initial hospitalization rates (from 4 to 21 per 10,000 person-years) and in their trends (upward, inverted V shape, downward). Most of the risk variation is captured by phenomena occurring at the HA level (fraction variance: 51.6, 54.7 and 56.9%). At AC level, the risk of PCI hospitalization follow a heterogeneous ascending dynamic (interaction AC-year: 17.7%), whereas in COPD the AC role is more homogenous and important (37%). In a system where the decisions loci are differentiated, the spatio-temporal modeling allows to assess the dynamic relative role of different levels of decision and their influence on health outcomes.

Spatio-temporal hierarchical modeling of rates and variability of Holocene sea-level changes in the western North Atlantic and the Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashe, E.; Kopp, R. E.; Khan, N.; Horton, B.; Engelhart, S. E.

2016-12-01

Sea level varies over of both space and time. Prior to the instrumental period, the sea-level record depends upon geological reconstructions that contain vertical and temporal uncertainty. Spatio-temporal statistical models enable the interpretation of RSL and rates of change as well as the reconstruction of the entire sea-level field from such noisy data. Hierarchical models explicitly distinguish between a process level, which characterizes the spatio-temporal field, and a data level, by which sparse proxy data and its noise is recorded. A hyperparameter level depicts prior expectations about the structure of variability in the spatio-temporal field. Spatio-temporal hierarchical models are amenable to several analysis approaches, with tradeoffs regarding computational efficiency and comprehensiveness of uncertainty characterization. A fully-Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM), which places prior probability distributions upon the hyperparameters, is more computationally intensive than an empirical hierarchical model (EHM), which uses point estimates of hyperparameters, derived from the data [1]. Here, we assess the sensitivity of posterior estimates of relative sea level (RSL) and rates to different statistical approaches by varying prior assumptions about the spatial and temporal structure of sea-level variability and applying multiple analytical approaches to Holocene sea-level proxies along the Atlantic coast of North American and the Caribbean [2]. References: 1. N Cressie, Wikle CK (2011) Statistics for spatio-temporal data (John Wiley & Sons). 2. Kahn N et al. (2016). Quaternary Science Reviews (in revision).

An event-version-based spatio-temporal modeling approach and its application in the cadastral management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yangdong; Han, Zhen; Liao, Zhongping

2009-10-01

Spatiality, temporality, legality, accuracy and continuality are characteristic of cadastral information, and the cadastral management demands that the cadastral data should be accurate, integrated and updated timely. It's a good idea to build an effective GIS management system to manage the cadastral data which are characterized by spatiality and temporality. Because no sound spatio-temporal data models have been adopted, however, the spatio-temporal characteristics of cadastral data are not well expressed in the existing cadastral management systems. An event-version-based spatio-temporal modeling approach is first proposed from the angle of event and version. Then with the help of it, an event-version-based spatio-temporal cadastral data model is built to represent spatio-temporal cadastral data. At last, the previous model is used in the design and implementation of a spatio-temporal cadastral management system. The result of the application of the system shows that the event-version-based spatio-temporal data model is very suitable for the representation and organization of cadastral data.

An accessible method for implementing hierarchical models with spatio-temporal abundance data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Beth E.; Hooten, Melvin B.; Koons, David N.

2012-01-01

A common goal in ecology and wildlife management is to determine the causes of variation in population dynamics over long periods of time and across large spatial scales. Many assumptions must nevertheless be overcome to make appropriate inference about spatio-temporal variation in population dynamics, such as autocorrelation among data points, excess zeros, and observation error in count data. To address these issues, many scientists and statisticians have recommended the use of Bayesian hierarchical models. Unfortunately, hierarchical statistical models remain somewhat difficult to use because of the necessary quantitative background needed to implement them, or because of the computational demands of using Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms to estimate parameters. Fortunately, new tools have recently been developed that make it more feasible for wildlife biologists to fit sophisticated hierarchical Bayesian models (i.e., Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation, ‘INLA’). We present a case study using two important game species in North America, the lesser and greater scaup, to demonstrate how INLA can be used to estimate the parameters in a hierarchical model that decouples observation error from process variation, and accounts for unknown sources of excess zeros as well as spatial and temporal dependence in the data. Ultimately, our goal was to make unbiased inference about spatial variation in population trends over time.

Mapping child maltreatment risk: a 12-year spatio-temporal analysis of neighborhood influences.

PubMed

Gracia, Enrique; López-Quílez, Antonio; Marco, Miriam; Lila, Marisol

2017-10-18

'Place' matters in understanding prevalence variations and inequalities in child maltreatment risk. However, most studies examining ecological variations in child maltreatment risk fail to take into account the implications of the spatial and temporal dimensions of neighborhoods. In this study, we conduct a high-resolution small-area study to analyze the influence of neighborhood characteristics on the spatio-temporal epidemiology of child maltreatment risk. We conducted a 12-year (2004-2015) small-area Bayesian spatio-temporal epidemiological study with all families with child maltreatment protection measures in the city of Valencia, Spain. As neighborhood units, we used 552 census block groups. Cases were geocoded using the family address. Neighborhood-level characteristics analyzed included three indicators of neighborhood disadvantage-neighborhood economic status, neighborhood education level, and levels of policing activity-, immigrant concentration, and residential instability. Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling and disease mapping methods were used to provide area-specific risk estimations. Results from a spatio-temporal autoregressive model showed that neighborhoods with low levels of economic and educational status, with high levels of policing activity, and high immigrant concentration had higher levels of substantiated child maltreatment risk. Disease mapping methods were used to analyze areas of excess risk. Results showed chronic spatial patterns of high child maltreatment risk during the years analyzed, as well as stability over time in areas of low risk. Areas with increased or decreased child maltreatment risk over the years were also observed. A spatio-temporal epidemiological approach to study the geographical patterns, trends over time, and the contextual determinants of child maltreatment risk can provide a useful method to inform policy and action. This method can offer a more accurate description of the problem, and help to inform more

The Voronoi spatio-temporal data structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mioc, Darka

2002-04-01

Current GIS models cannot integrate the temporal dimension of spatial data easily. Indeed, current GISs do not support incremental (local) addition and deletion of spatial objects, and they can not support the temporal evolution of spatial data. Spatio-temporal facilities would be very useful in many GIS applications: harvesting and forest planning, cadastre, urban and regional planning, and emergency planning. The spatio-temporal model that can overcome these problems is based on a topological model---the Voronoi data structure. Voronoi diagrams are irregular tessellations of space, that adapt to spatial objects and therefore they are a synthesis of raster and vector spatial data models. The main advantage of the Voronoi data structure is its local and sequential map updates, which allows us to automatically record each event and performed map updates within the system. These map updates are executed through map construction commands that are composed of atomic actions (geometric algorithms for addition, deletion, and motion of spatial objects) on the dynamic Voronoi data structure. The formalization of map commands led to the development of a spatial language comprising a set of atomic operations or constructs on spatial primitives (points and lines), powerful enough to define the complex operations. This resulted in a new formal model for spatio-temporal change representation, where each update is uniquely characterized by the numbers of newly created and inactivated Voronoi regions. This is used for the extension of the model towards the hierarchical Voronoi data structure. In this model, spatio-temporal changes induced by map updates are preserved in a hierarchical data structure that combines events and corresponding changes in topology. This hierarchical Voronoi data structure has an implicit time ordering of events visible through changes in topology, and it is equivalent to an event structure that can support temporal data without precise temporal

A semiparametric spatio-temporal model for solar irradiance data

DOE PAGES

Patrick, Joshua D.; Harvill, Jane L.; Hansen, Clifford W.

2016-03-01

Here, we evaluate semiparametric spatio-temporal models for global horizontal irradiance at high spatial and temporal resolution. These models represent the spatial domain as a lattice and are capable of predicting irradiance at lattice points, given data measured at other lattice points. Using data from a 1.2 MW PV plant located in Lanai, Hawaii, we show that a semiparametric model can be more accurate than simple interpolation between sensor locations. We investigate spatio-temporal models with separable and nonseparable covariance structures and find no evidence to support assuming a separable covariance structure. These results indicate a promising approach for modeling irradiance atmore » high spatial resolution consistent with available ground-based measurements. Moreover, this kind of modeling may find application in design, valuation, and operation of fleets of utility-scale photovoltaic power systems.« less

Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: Towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowe, Rachel; Bailey, Trevor C.; Stephenson, David B.; Graham, Richard J.; Coelho, Caio A. S.; Sá Carvalho, Marilia; Barcellos, Christovam

2011-03-01

This paper considers the potential for using seasonal climate forecasts in developing an early warning system for dengue fever epidemics in Brazil. In the first instance, a generalised linear model (GLM) is used to select climate and other covariates which are both readily available and prove significant in prediction of confirmed monthly dengue cases based on data collected across the whole of Brazil for the period January 2001 to December 2008 at the microregion level (typically consisting of one large city and several smaller municipalities). The covariates explored include temperature and precipitation data on a 2.5°×2.5° longitude-latitude grid with time lags relevant to dengue transmission, an El Niño Southern Oscillation index and other relevant socio-economic and environmental variables. A negative binomial model formulation is adopted in this model selection to allow for extra-Poisson variation (overdispersion) in the observed dengue counts caused by unknown/unobserved confounding factors and possible correlations in these effects in both time and space. Subsequently, the selected global model is refined in the context of the South East region of Brazil, where dengue predominates, by reverting to a Poisson framework and explicitly modelling the overdispersion through a combination of unstructured and spatio-temporal structured random effects. The resulting spatio-temporal hierarchical model (or GLMM—generalised linear mixed model) is implemented via a Bayesian framework using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Dengue predictions are found to be enhanced both spatially and temporally when using the GLMM and the Bayesian framework allows posterior predictive distributions for dengue cases to be derived, which can be useful for developing a dengue alert system. Using this model, we conclude that seasonal climate forecasts could have potential value in helping to predict dengue incidence months in advance of an epidemic in South East Brazil.

Spatio-Temporal Change Modeling of Lulc: a Semantic Kriging Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharjee, S.; Ghosh, S. K.

2015-07-01

Spatio-temporal land-use/ land-cover (LULC) change modeling is important to forecast the future LULC distribution, which may facilitate natural resource management, urban planning, etc. The spatio-temporal change in LULC trend often exhibits non-linear behavior, due to various dynamic factors, such as, human intervention (e.g., urbanization), environmental factors, etc. Hence, proper forecasting of LULC distribution should involve the study and trend modeling of historical data. Existing literatures have reported that the meteorological attributes (e.g., NDVI, LST, MSI), are semantically related to the terrain. Being influenced by the terrestrial dynamics, the temporal changes of these attributes depend on the LULC properties. Hence, incorporating meteorological knowledge into the temporal prediction process may help in developing an accurate forecasting model. This work attempts to study the change in inter-annual LULC pattern and the distribution of different meteorological attributes of a region in Kolkata (a metropolitan city in India) during the years 2000-2010 and forecast the future spread of LULC using semantic kriging (SemK) approach. A new variant of time-series SemK is proposed, namely Rev-SemKts to capture the multivariate semantic associations between different attributes. From empirical analysis, it may be observed that the augmentation of semantic knowledge in spatio-temporal modeling of meteorological attributes facilitate more precise forecasting of LULC pattern.

Spatio-temporal models of mental processes from fMRI.

PubMed

Janoos, Firdaus; Machiraju, Raghu; Singh, Shantanu; Morocz, Istvan Ákos

2011-07-15

Understanding the highly complex, spatially distributed and temporally organized phenomena entailed by mental processes using functional MRI is an important research problem in cognitive and clinical neuroscience. Conventional analysis methods focus on the spatial dimension of the data discarding the information about brain function contained in the temporal dimension. This paper presents a fully spatio-temporal multivariate analysis method using a state-space model (SSM) for brain function that yields not only spatial maps of activity but also its temporal structure along with spatially varying estimates of the hemodynamic response. Efficient algorithms for estimating the parameters along with quantitative validations are given. A novel low-dimensional feature-space for representing the data, based on a formal definition of functional similarity, is derived. Quantitative validation of the model and the estimation algorithms is provided with a simulation study. Using a real fMRI study for mental arithmetic, the ability of this neurophysiologically inspired model to represent the spatio-temporal information corresponding to mental processes is demonstrated. Moreover, by comparing the models across multiple subjects, natural patterns in mental processes organized according to different mental abilities are revealed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling spatio-temporal wildfire ignition point patterns

Treesearch

Amanda S. Hering; Cynthia L. Bell; Marc G. Genton

2009-01-01

We analyze and model the structure of spatio-temporal wildfire ignitions in the St. Johns River Water Management District in northeastern Florida. Previous studies, based on the K-function and an assumption of homogeneity, have shown that wildfire events occur in clusters. We revisit this analysis based on an inhomogeneous K-...

Spatio-temporal analysis of Modified Omori law in Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rezanezhad, V.; Narteau, C.; Shebalin, P.; Zoeller, G.; Holschneider, M.

2017-12-01

This work presents a study of the spatio temporal evolution of the modified Omori parameters in southern California in then time period of 1981-2016. A nearest-neighbor approach is applied for earthquake clustering. This study targets small mainshocks and corresponding big aftershocks ( 2.5 ≤ mmainshocks ≤ 4.5 and 1.8 ≤ maftershocks ≤ 2.8 ). We invert for the spatio temporal behavior of c and p values (especially c) all over the area using a MCMC based maximum likelihood estimator. As parameterizing families we use Voronoi cells with randomly distributed cell centers. Considering that c value represents a physical character like stress change we expect to see a coherent c value pattern over seismologically coacting areas. This correlation of c valus can actually be seen for the San Andreas, San Jacinto and Elsinore faults. Moreover, the depth dependency of c value is studied which shows a linear behavior of log(c) with respect to aftershock's depth within 5 to 15 km depth.

Assessing the social and environmental determinants of pertussis epidemics in Queensland, Australia: a Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis.

PubMed

Huang, X; Lambert, S; Lau, C; Soares Magalhaes, R J; Marquess, J; Rajmokan, M; Milinovich, G; Hu, W

2017-04-01

Pertussis epidemics have displayed substantial spatial heterogeneity in countries with high socioeconomic conditions and high vaccine coverage. This study aims to investigate the relationship between pertussis risk and socio-environmental factors on the spatio-temporal variation underlying pertussis infection. We obtained daily case numbers of pertussis notifications from Queensland Health, Australia by postal area, for the period January 2006 to December 2012. A Bayesian spatio-temporal model was used to quantify the relationship between monthly pertussis incidence and socio-environmental factors. The socio-environmental factors included monthly mean minimum temperature (MIT), monthly mean vapour pressure (VAP), Queensland school calendar pattern (SCP), and socioeconomic index for area (SEIFA). An increase in pertussis incidence was observed from 2006 to 2010 and a slight decrease from 2011 to 2012. Spatial analyses showed pertussis incidence across Queensland postal area to be low and more spatially homogeneous during 2006-2008; incidence was higher and more spatially heterogeneous after 2009. The results also showed that the average decrease in monthly pertussis incidence was 3·1% [95% credible interval (CrI) 1·3-4·8] for each 1 °C increase in monthly MIT, while average increase in monthly pertussis incidences were 6·2% (95% CrI 0·4-12·4) and 2% (95% CrI 1-3) for SCP periods and for each 10-unit increase in SEIFA, respectively. This study demonstrated that pertussis transmission is significantly associated with MIT, SEIFA, and SCP. Mapping derived from this work highlights the potential for future investigation and areas for focusing future control strategies.

40 years of progress in female cancer death risk: a Bayesian spatio-temporal mapping analysis in Switzerland.

PubMed

Herrmann, Christian; Ess, Silvia; Thürlimann, Beat; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Vounatsou, Penelope

2015-10-09

In the past decades, mortality of female gender related cancers declined in Switzerland and other developed countries. Differences in the decrease and in spatial patterns within Switzerland have been reported according to urbanisation and language region, and remain controversial. We aimed to investigate geographical and temporal trends of breast, ovarian, cervical and uterine cancer mortality, assess whether differential trends exist and to provide updated results until 2011. Breast, ovarian, cervical and uterine cancer mortality and population data for Switzerland in the period 1969-2011 was retrieved from the Swiss Federal Statistical office (FSO). Cases were grouped into <55 year olds, 55-74 year olds and 75+ year olds. The geographical unit of analysis was the municipality. To explore age- specific spatio-temporal patterns we fitted Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal models on subgroup-specific death rates indirectly standardized by national references. We used linguistic region and degree of urbanisation as covariates. Female cancer mortality continuously decreased in terms of rates in all age groups and cancer sites except for ovarian cancer in 75+ year olds, especially since 1990 onwards. Contrary to other reports, we found no systematic difference between language regions. Urbanisation as a proxy for access to and quality of medical services, education and health consciousness seemed to have no influence on cancer mortality with the exception of uterine and ovarian cancer in specific age groups. We observed no obvious spatial pattern of mortality common for all cancer sites. Rate reduction in cervical cancer was even stronger than for other cancer sites. Female gender related cancer mortality is continuously decreasing in Switzerland since 1990. Geographical differences are small, present on a regional or canton-overspanning level, and different for each cancer site and age group. No general significant association with cantonal or language region

Bayesian hierarchical model of ceftriaxone resistance proportions among Salmonella serotype Heidelberg infections.

PubMed

Gu, Weidong; Medalla, Felicita; Hoekstra, Robert M

2018-02-01

The National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System (NARMS) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tracks resistance among Salmonella infections. The annual number of Salmonella isolates of a particular serotype from states may be small, making direct estimation of resistance proportions unreliable. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to improve estimation by borrowing strength from relevant sampling units. We illustrate the models with different specifications of spatio-temporal interaction using 2004-2013 NARMS data for ceftriaxone-resistant Salmonella serotype Heidelberg. Our results show that Bayesian estimates of resistance proportions were smoother than observed values, and the difference between predicted and observed proportions was inversely related to the number of submitted isolates. The model with interaction allowed for tracking of annual changes in resistance proportions at the state level. We demonstrated that Bayesian hierarchical models provide a useful tool to examine spatio-temporal patterns of small sample size such as those found in NARMS. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Challenges for modelling spatio-temporal variations of malaria risk in Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowe, R.; Chirombo, J.; Tompkins, A. M.

2012-04-01

the unobserved confounding factors that influence malaria, which are not accounted for using measured covariates, a negative binomial generalised linear mixed model (GLMM) is adopted, which includes structured and unstructured spatial and temporal random effects. The parameters in this spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). This allows posterior predictive distributions for disease risk to be derived for each spatial location and time period. A novel visualisation technique is then used to display seasonal probabilistic forecasts of malaria risk, derived from the developed model using pre-defined risk category thresholds, on a map. This technique allows decision makers to identify areas where the model predicts with certainty a particular malaria risk category (high, medium or low); in order to effectively target limited resources to those districts most at risk for a given season.

Spatio-temporal networks: reachability, centrality and robustness.

PubMed

Williams, Matthew J; Musolesi, Mirco

2016-06-01

Recent advances in spatial and temporal networks have enabled researchers to more-accurately describe many real-world systems such as urban transport networks. In this paper, we study the response of real-world spatio-temporal networks to random error and systematic attack, taking a unified view of their spatial and temporal performance. We propose a model of spatio-temporal paths in time-varying spatially embedded networks which captures the property that, as in many real-world systems, interaction between nodes is non-instantaneous and governed by the space in which they are embedded. Through numerical experiments on three real-world urban transport systems, we study the effect of node failure on a network's topological, temporal and spatial structure. We also demonstrate the broader applicability of this framework to three other classes of network. To identify weaknesses specific to the behaviour of a spatio-temporal system, we introduce centrality measures that evaluate the importance of a node as a structural bridge and its role in supporting spatio-temporally efficient flows through the network. This exposes the complex nature of fragility in a spatio-temporal system, showing that there is a variety of failure modes when a network is subject to systematic attacks.

Predicting BCI subject performance using probabilistic spatio-temporal filters.

PubMed

Suk, Heung-Il; Fazli, Siamac; Mehnert, Jan; Müller, Klaus-Robert; Lee, Seong-Whan

2014-01-01

Recently, spatio-temporal filtering to enhance decoding for Brain-Computer-Interfacing (BCI) has become increasingly popular. In this work, we discuss a novel, fully Bayesian-and thereby probabilistic-framework, called Bayesian Spatio-Spectral Filter Optimization (BSSFO) and apply it to a large data set of 80 non-invasive EEG-based BCI experiments. Across the full frequency range, the BSSFO framework allows to analyze which spatio-spectral parameters are common and which ones differ across the subject population. As expected, large variability of brain rhythms is observed between subjects. We have clustered subjects according to similarities in their corresponding spectral characteristics from the BSSFO model, which is found to reflect their BCI performances well. In BCI, a considerable percentage of subjects is unable to use a BCI for communication, due to their missing ability to modulate their brain rhythms-a phenomenon sometimes denoted as BCI-illiteracy or inability. Predicting individual subjects' performance preceding the actual, time-consuming BCI-experiment enhances the usage of BCIs, e.g., by detecting users with BCI inability. This work additionally contributes by using the novel BSSFO method to predict the BCI-performance using only 2 minutes and 3 channels of resting-state EEG data recorded before the actual BCI-experiment. Specifically, by grouping the individual frequency characteristics we have nicely classified them into the subject 'prototypes' (like μ - or β -rhythm type subjects) or users without ability to communicate with a BCI, and then by further building a linear regression model based on the grouping we could predict subjects' performance with the maximum correlation coefficient of 0.581 with the performance later seen in the actual BCI session.

A model for optimizing file access patterns using spatio-temporal parallelism

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boonthanome, Nouanesengsy; Patchett, John; Geveci, Berk

2013-01-01

For many years now, I/O read time has been recognized as the primary bottleneck for parallel visualization and analysis of large-scale data. In this paper, we introduce a model that can estimate the read time for a file stored in a parallel filesystem when given the file access pattern. Read times ultimately depend on how the file is stored and the access pattern used to read the file. The file access pattern will be dictated by the type of parallel decomposition used. We employ spatio-temporal parallelism, which combines both spatial and temporal parallelism, to provide greater flexibility to possible filemore » access patterns. Using our model, we were able to configure the spatio-temporal parallelism to design optimized read access patterns that resulted in a speedup factor of approximately 400 over traditional file access patterns.« less

Formally grounding spatio-temporal thinking.

PubMed

Klippel, Alexander; Wallgrün, Jan Oliver; Yang, Jinlong; Li, Rui; Dylla, Frank

2012-08-01

To navigate through daily life, humans use their ability to conceptualize spatio-temporal information, which ultimately leads to a system of categories. Likewise, the spatial sciences rely heavily on conceptualization and categorization as means to create knowledge when they process spatio-temporal data. In the spatial sciences and in related branches of artificial intelligence, an approach has been developed for processing spatio-temporal data on the level of coarse categories: qualitative spatio-temporal representation and reasoning (QSTR). Calculi developed in QSTR allow for the meaningful processing of and reasoning with spatio-temporal information. While qualitative calculi are widely acknowledged in the cognitive sciences, there is little behavioral assessment whether these calculi are indeed cognitively adequate. This is an astonishing conundrum given that these calculi are ubiquitous, are often intended to improve processes at the human-machine interface, and are on several occasions claimed to be cognitively adequate. We have systematically evaluated several approaches to formally characterize spatial relations from a cognitive-behavioral perspective for both static and dynamically changing spatial relations. This contribution will detail our framework, which is addressing the question how formal characterization of space can help us understand how people think with, in, and about space.

Spatial distribution of tree species governs the spatio-temporal interaction of leaf area index and soil moisture across a forested landscape.

PubMed

Naithani, Kusum J; Baldwin, Doug C; Gaines, Katie P; Lin, Henry; Eissenstat, David M

2013-01-01

Quantifying coupled spatio-temporal dynamics of phenology and hydrology and understanding underlying processes is a fundamental challenge in ecohydrology. While variation in phenology and factors influencing it have attracted the attention of ecologists for a long time, the influence of biodiversity on coupled dynamics of phenology and hydrology across a landscape is largely untested. We measured leaf area index (L) and volumetric soil water content (θ) on a co-located spatial grid to characterize forest phenology and hydrology across a forested catchment in central Pennsylvania during 2010. We used hierarchical Bayesian modeling to quantify spatio-temporal patterns of L and θ. Our results suggest that the spatial distribution of tree species across the landscape created unique spatio-temporal patterns of L, which created patterns of water demand reflected in variable soil moisture across space and time. We found a lag of about 11 days between increase in L and decline in θ. Vegetation and soil moisture become increasingly homogenized and coupled from leaf-onset to maturity but heterogeneous and uncoupled from leaf maturity to senescence. Our results provide insight into spatio-temporal coupling between biodiversity and soil hydrology that is useful to enhance ecohydrological modeling in humid temperate forests.

Spatio-temporal statistical models for river monitoring networks.

PubMed

Clement, L; Thas, O; Vanrolleghem, P A; Ottoy, J P

2006-01-01

When introducing new wastewater treatment plants (WWTP), investors and policy makers often want to know if there indeed is a beneficial effect of the installation of a WWTP on the river water quality. Such an effect can be established in time as well as in space. Since both temporal and spatial components affect the output of a monitoring network, their dependence structure has to be modelled. River water quality data typically come from a river monitoring network for which the spatial dependence structure is unidirectional. Thus the traditional spatio-temporal models are not appropriate, as they cannot take advantage of this directional information. In this paper, a state-space model is presented in which the spatial dependence of the state variable is represented by a directed acyclic graph, and the temporal dependence by a first-order autoregressive process. The state-space model is extended with a linear model for the mean to estimate the effect of the activation of a WWTP on the dissolved oxygen concentration downstream.

Application of 3D Spatio-Temporal Data Modeling, Management, and Analysis in DB4GEO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuper, P. V.; Breunig, M.; Al-Doori, M.; Thomsen, A.

2016-10-01

Many of todaýs world wide challenges such as climate change, water supply and transport systems in cities or movements of crowds need spatio-temporal data to be examined in detail. Thus the number of examinations in 3D space dealing with geospatial objects moving in space and time or even changing their shapes in time will rapidly increase in the future. Prominent spatio-temporal applications are subsurface reservoir modeling, water supply after seawater desalination and the development of transport systems in mega cities. All of these applications generate large spatio-temporal data sets. However, the modeling, management and analysis of 3D geo-objects with changing shape and attributes in time still is a challenge for geospatial database architectures. In this article we describe the application of concepts for the modeling, management and analysis of 2.5D and 3D spatial plus 1D temporal objects implemented in DB4GeO, our service-oriented geospatial database architecture. An example application with spatio-temporal data of a landfill, near the city of Osnabrück in Germany demonstrates the usage of the concepts. Finally, an outlook on our future research focusing on new applications with big data analysis in three spatial plus one temporal dimension in the United Arab Emirates, especially the Dubai area, is given.

Spatio-temporal precipitation climatology over complex terrain using a censored additive regression model.

PubMed

Stauffer, Reto; Mayr, Georg J; Messner, Jakob W; Umlauf, Nikolaus; Zeileis, Achim

2017-06-15

Flexible spatio-temporal models are widely used to create reliable and accurate estimates for precipitation climatologies. Most models are based on square root transformed monthly or annual means, where a normal distribution seems to be appropriate. This assumption becomes invalid on a daily time scale as the observations involve large fractions of zero observations and are limited to non-negative values. We develop a novel spatio-temporal model to estimate the full climatological distribution of precipitation on a daily time scale over complex terrain using a left-censored normal distribution. The results demonstrate that the new method is able to account for the non-normal distribution and the large fraction of zero observations. The new climatology provides the full climatological distribution on a very high spatial and temporal resolution, and is competitive with, or even outperforms existing methods, even for arbitrary locations.

Bayesian hierarchical models for regional climate reconstructions of the last glacial maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weitzel, Nils; Hense, Andreas; Ohlwein, Christian

2017-04-01

Spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate are important for the understanding of the long term behavior of the climate system and the sensitivity to forcing changes. Unfortunately, they are subject to large uncertainties, have to deal with a complex proxy-climate structure, and a physically reasonable interpolation between the sparse proxy observations is difficult. Bayesian Hierarchical Models (BHMs) are a class of statistical models that is well suited for spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate because they permit the inclusion of multiple sources of information (e.g. records from different proxy types, uncertain age information, output from climate simulations) and quantify uncertainties in a statistically rigorous way. BHMs in paleoclimatology typically consist of three stages which are modeled individually and are combined using Bayesian inference techniques. The data stage models the proxy-climate relation (often named transfer function), the process stage models the spatio-temporal distribution of the climate variables of interest, and the prior stage consists of prior distributions of the model parameters. For our BHMs, we translate well-known proxy-climate transfer functions for pollen to a Bayesian framework. In addition, we can include Gaussian distributed local climate information from preprocessed proxy records. The process stage combines physically reasonable spatial structures from prior distributions with proxy records which leads to a multivariate posterior probability distribution for the reconstructed climate variables. The prior distributions that constrain the possible spatial structure of the climate variables are calculated from climate simulation output. We present results from pseudoproxy tests as well as new regional reconstructions of temperatures for the last glacial maximum (LGM, ˜ 21,000 years BP). These reconstructions combine proxy data syntheses with information from climate simulations for the LGM that were

Spatio-temporal modeling and optimization of a deformable-grating compressor for short high-energy laser pulses

DOE PAGES

Qiao, Jie; Papa, J.; Liu, X.

2015-09-24

Monolithic large-scale diffraction gratings are desired to improve the performance of high-energy laser systems and scale them to higher energy, but the surface deformation of these diffraction gratings induce spatio-temporal coupling that is detrimental to the focusability and compressibility of the output pulse. A new deformable-grating-based pulse compressor architecture with optimized actuator positions has been designed to correct the spatial and temporal aberrations induced by grating wavefront errors. An integrated optical model has been built to analyze the effect of grating wavefront errors on the spatio-temporal performance of a compressor based on four deformable gratings. Moreover, a 1.5-meter deformable gratingmore » has been optimized using an integrated finite-element-analysis and genetic-optimization model, leading to spatio-temporal performance similar to the baseline design with ideal gratings.« less

Spatio-temporal distribution of soil-transmitted helminth infections in Brazil.

PubMed

Chammartin, Frédérique; Guimarães, Luiz H; Scholte, Ronaldo Gc; Bavia, Mara E; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

2014-09-18

In Brazil, preventive chemotherapy targeting soil-transmitted helminthiasis is being scaled-up. Hence, spatially explicit estimates of infection risks providing information about the current situation are needed to guide interventions. Available high-resolution national model-based estimates either rely on analyses of data restricted to a given period of time, or on historical data collected over a longer period. While efforts have been made to take into account the spatial structure of the data in the modelling approach, little emphasis has been placed on the temporal dimension. We extracted georeferenced survey data on the prevalence of infection with soil-transmitted helminths (i.e. Ascaris lumbricoides, hookworm and Trichuris trichiura) in Brazil from the Global Neglected Tropical Diseases (GNTD) database. Selection of the most important predictors of infection risk was carried out using a Bayesian geostatistical approach and temporal models that address non-linearity and correlation of the explanatory variables. The spatial process was estimated through a predictive process approximation. Spatio-temporal models were built on the selected predictors with integrated nested Laplace approximation using stochastic partial differential equations. Our models revealed that, over the past 20 years, the risk of soil-transmitted helminth infection has decreased in Brazil, mainly because of the reduction of A. lumbricoides and hookworm infections. From 2010 onwards, we estimate that the infection prevalences with A. lumbricoides, hookworm and T. trichiura are 3.6%, 1.7% and 1.4%, respectively. We also provide a map highlighting municipalities in need of preventive chemotherapy, based on a predicted soil-transmitted helminth infection risk in excess of 20%. The need for treatments in the school-aged population at the municipality level was estimated at 1.8 million doses of anthelminthic tablets per year. The analysis of the spatio-temporal aspect of the risk of infection

Visualization of Spatio-Temporal Relations in Movement Event Using Multi-View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, K.; Gu, D.; Fang, F.; Wang, Y.; Liu, H.; Zhao, W.; Zhang, M.; Li, Q.

2017-09-01

Spatio-temporal relations among movement events extracted from temporally varying trajectory data can provide useful information about the evolution of individual or collective movers, as well as their interactions with their spatial and temporal contexts. However, the pure statistical tools commonly used by analysts pose many difficulties, due to the large number of attributes embedded in multi-scale and multi-semantic trajectory data. The need for models that operate at multiple scales to search for relations at different locations within time and space, as well as intuitively interpret what these relations mean, also presents challenges. Since analysts do not know where or when these relevant spatio-temporal relations might emerge, these models must compute statistical summaries of multiple attributes at different granularities. In this paper, we propose a multi-view approach to visualize the spatio-temporal relations among movement events. We describe a method for visualizing movement events and spatio-temporal relations that uses multiple displays. A visual interface is presented, and the user can interactively select or filter spatial and temporal extents to guide the knowledge discovery process. We also demonstrate how this approach can help analysts to derive and explain the spatio-temporal relations of movement events from taxi trajectory data.

Research on spatio-temporal database techniques for spatial information service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Rong; Wang, Liang; Li, Yuxiang; Fan, Rongshuang; Liu, Ping; Li, Qingyuan

2007-06-01

Geographic data should be described by spatial, temporal and attribute components, but the spatio-temporal queries are difficult to be answered within current GIS. This paper describes research into the development and application of spatio-temporal data management system based upon GeoWindows GIS software platform which was developed by Chinese Academy of Surveying and Mapping (CASM). Faced the current and practical requirements of spatial information application, and based on existing GIS platform, one kind of spatio-temporal data model which integrates vector and grid data together was established firstly. Secondly, we solved out the key technique of building temporal data topology, successfully developed a suit of spatio-temporal database management system adopting object-oriented methods. The system provides the temporal data collection, data storage, data management and data display and query functions. Finally, as a case study, we explored the application of spatio-temporal data management system with the administrative region data of multi-history periods of China as the basic data. With all the efforts above, the GIS capacity of management and manipulation in aspect of time and attribute of GIS has been enhanced, and technical reference has been provided for the further development of temporal geographic information system (TGIS).

When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Powell, James A.

2017-01-01

Ecological diffusion is a theory that can be used to understand and forecast spatio-temporal processes such as dispersal, invasion, and the spread of disease. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling provides a framework to make statistical inference and probabilistic forecasts, using mechanistic ecological models. To illustrate, we show how hierarchical Bayesian models of ecological diffusion can be implemented for large data sets that are distributed densely across space and time. The hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to understand and forecast the growth and geographic spread in the prevalence of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We compare statistical inference and forecasts from our hierarchical Bayesian model to phenomenological regression-based methods that are commonly used to analyse spatial occurrence data. The mechanistic statistical model based on ecological diffusion led to important ecological insights, obviated a commonly ignored type of collinearity, and was the most accurate method for forecasting.

Modeling the spatio-temporal heterogeneity in the PM10-PM2.5 relationship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Hone-Jay; Huang, Bo; Lin, Chuan-Yao

2015-02-01

This paper explores the spatio-temporal patterns of particulate matter (PM) in Taiwan based on a series of methods. Using fuzzy c-means clustering first, the spatial heterogeneity (six clusters) in the PM data collected between 2005 and 2009 in Taiwan are identified and the industrial and urban areas of Taiwan (southwestern, west central, northwestern, and northern Taiwan) are found to have high PM concentrations. The PM10-PM2.5 relationship is then modeled with global ordinary least squares regression, geographically weighted regression (GWR), and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR). The GTWR and GWR produce consistent results; however, GTWR provides more detailed information of spatio-temporal variations of the PM10-PM2.5 relationship. The results also show that GTWR provides a relatively high goodness of fit and sufficient space-time explanatory power. In particular, the PM2.5 or PM10 varies with time and space, depending on weather conditions and the spatial distribution of land use and emission patterns in local areas. Such information can be used to determine patterns of spatio-temporal heterogeneity in PM that will allow the control of pollutants and the reduction of public exposure.

Local overfishing may be avoided by examining parameters of a spatio-temporal model

PubMed Central

Shackell, Nancy; Mills Flemming, Joanna

2017-01-01

Spatial erosion of stock structure through local overfishing can lead to stock collapse because fish often prefer certain locations, and fisheries tend to focus on those locations. Fishery managers are challenged to maintain the integrity of the entire stock and require scientific approaches that provide them with sound advice. Here we propose a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal modelling framework for fish abundance data to estimate key parameters that define spatial stock structure: persistence (similarity of spatial structure over time), connectivity (coherence of temporal pattern over space), and spatial variance (variation across the seascape). The consideration of these spatial parameters in the stock assessment process can help identify the erosion of structure and assist in preventing local overfishing. We use Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in eastern Canada as a case study an examine the behaviour of these parameters from the height of the fishery through its collapse. We identify clear signals in parameter behaviour under circumstances of destructive stock erosion as well as for recovery of spatial structure even when combined with a non-recovery in abundance. Further, our model reveals the spatial pattern of areas of high and low density persists over the 41 years of available data and identifies the remnant patches. Models of this sort are crucial to recovery plans if we are to identify and protect remaining sources of recolonization for Atlantic cod. Our method is immediately applicable to other exploited species. PMID:28886179

Local overfishing may be avoided by examining parameters of a spatio-temporal model.

PubMed

Carson, Stuart; Shackell, Nancy; Mills Flemming, Joanna

2017-01-01

Spatial erosion of stock structure through local overfishing can lead to stock collapse because fish often prefer certain locations, and fisheries tend to focus on those locations. Fishery managers are challenged to maintain the integrity of the entire stock and require scientific approaches that provide them with sound advice. Here we propose a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal modelling framework for fish abundance data to estimate key parameters that define spatial stock structure: persistence (similarity of spatial structure over time), connectivity (coherence of temporal pattern over space), and spatial variance (variation across the seascape). The consideration of these spatial parameters in the stock assessment process can help identify the erosion of structure and assist in preventing local overfishing. We use Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in eastern Canada as a case study an examine the behaviour of these parameters from the height of the fishery through its collapse. We identify clear signals in parameter behaviour under circumstances of destructive stock erosion as well as for recovery of spatial structure even when combined with a non-recovery in abundance. Further, our model reveals the spatial pattern of areas of high and low density persists over the 41 years of available data and identifies the remnant patches. Models of this sort are crucial to recovery plans if we are to identify and protect remaining sources of recolonization for Atlantic cod. Our method is immediately applicable to other exploited species.

Effective and efficient analysis of spatio-temporal data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhongnan

Spatio-temporal data mining, i.e., mining knowledge from large amount of spatio-temporal data, is a highly demanding field because huge amounts of spatio-temporal data have been collected in various applications, ranging from remote sensing, to geographical information systems (GIS), computer cartography, environmental assessment and planning, etc. The collection data far exceeded human's ability to analyze which make it crucial to develop analysis tools. Recent studies on data mining have extended to the scope of data mining from relational and transactional datasets to spatial and temporal datasets. Among the various forms of spatio-temporal data, remote sensing images play an important role, due to the growing wide-spreading of outer space satellites. In this dissertation, we proposed two approaches to analyze the remote sensing data. The first one is about applying association rules mining onto images processing. Each image was divided into a number of image blocks. We built a spatial relationship for these blocks during the dividing process. This made a large number of images into a spatio-temporal dataset since each image was shot in time-series. The second one implemented co-occurrence patterns discovery from these images. The generated patterns represent subsets of spatial features that are located together in space and time. A weather analysis is composed of individual analysis of several meteorological variables. These variables include temperature, pressure, dew point, wind, clouds, visibility and so on. Local-scale models provide detailed analysis and forecasts of meteorological phenomena ranging from a few kilometers to about 100 kilometers in size. When some of above meteorological variables have some special change tendency, some kind of severe weather will happen in most cases. Using the discovery of association rules, we found that some special meteorological variables' changing has tight relation with some severe weather situation that will happen

Economic agglomerations and spatio-temporal cycles in a spatial growth model with capital transport cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juchem Neto, J. P.; Claeyssen, J. C. R.; Pôrto Júnior, S. S.

2018-03-01

In this paper we introduce capital transport cost in a unidimensional spatial Solow-Swan model of economic growth with capital-induced labor migration, considered in an unbounded domain. Proceeding with a stability analysis, we show that there is a critical value for the capital transport cost where the dynamic behavior of the economy changes, provided that the intensity of capital-induced labor migration is strong enough. On the one hand, if the capital transport cost is higher than this critical value, the spatially homogeneous equilibrium of coexistence of the model is stable, and the economy converges to this spatially homogeneous state in the long run; on the other hand, if transport cost is lower than this critical value, the equilibrium is unstable, and the economy may develop different spatio-temporal dynamics, including the formation of stable economic agglomerations and spatio-temporal economic cycles, depending on the other parameters in the model. Finally, numerical simulations support the results of the stability analysis, and illustrate the spatio-temporal dynamics generated by the model, suggesting that the economy as a whole benefits from the formation of economic agglomerations and cycles, with a higher capital transport cost reducing this gain.

Spatio-temporal alignment of multiple sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Tinghua; Ni, Guoqiang; Fan, Guihua; Sun, Huayan; Yang, Biao

2018-01-01

Aiming to achieve the spatio-temporal alignment of multi sensor on the same platform for space target observation, a joint spatio-temporal alignment method is proposed. To calibrate the parameters and measure the attitude of cameras, an astronomical calibration method is proposed based on star chart simulation and collinear invariant features of quadrilateral diagonal between the observed star chart. In order to satisfy a temporal correspondence and spatial alignment similarity simultaneously, the method based on the astronomical calibration and attitude measurement in this paper formulates the video alignment to fold the spatial and temporal alignment into a joint alignment framework. The advantage of this method is reinforced by exploiting the similarities and prior knowledge of velocity vector field between adjacent frames, which is calculated by the SIFT Flow algorithm. The proposed method provides the highest spatio-temporal alignment accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art methods on sequences recorded from multi sensor at different times.

The use of spatio-temporal correlation to forecast critical transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karssenberg, Derek; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2010-05-01

Complex dynamical systems may have critical thresholds at which the system shifts abruptly from one state to another. Such critical transitions have been observed in systems ranging from the human body system to financial markets and the Earth system. Forecasting the timing of critical transitions before they are reached is of paramount importance because critical transitions are associated with a large shift in dynamical regime of the system under consideration. However, it is hard to forecast critical transitions, because the state of the system shows relatively little change before the threshold is reached. Recently, it was shown that increased spatio-temporal autocorrelation and variance can serve as alternative early warning signal for critical transitions. However, thus far these second order statistics have not been used for forecasting in a data assimilation framework. Here we show that the use of spatio-temporal autocorrelation and variance in the state of the system reduces the uncertainty in the predicted timing of critical transitions compared to classical approaches that use the value of the system state only. This is shown by assimilating observed spatio-temporal autocorrelation and variance into a dynamical system model using a Particle Filter. We adapt a well-studied distributed model of a logistically growing resource with a fixed grazing rate. The model describes the transition from an underexploited system with high resource biomass to overexploitation as grazing pressure crosses the critical threshold, which is a fold bifurcation. To represent limited prior information, we use a large variance in the prior probability distributions of model parameters and the system driver (grazing rate). First, we show that the rate of increase in spatio-temporal autocorrelation and variance prior to reaching the critical threshold is relatively consistent across the uncertainty range of the driver and parameter values used. This indicates that an increase in

Spatio-temporal modelling for assessing air pollution in Santiago de Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolis, Orietta; Camaño, Christian; Mařın, Julio C.; Sahu, Sujit K.

2017-01-01

In this work, we propose a space-time approach for studying the PM2.5 concentration in the city of Santiago de Chile. In particular, we apply the autoregressive hierarchical model proposed by [1] using the PM2.5 observations collected by a monitoring network as a response variable and numerical weather forecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as covariate together with spatial and temporal (periodic) components. The approach is able to provide short-term spatio-temporal predictions of PM2.5 concentrations on a fine spatial grid (at 1km × 1km horizontal resolution.)

Modeling of spatio-temporal variation in plague incidence in Madagascar from 1980 to 2007.

PubMed

Giorgi, Emanuele; Kreppel, Katharina; Diggle, Peter J; Caminade, Cyril; Ratsitorahina, Maherisoa; Rajerison, Minoarisoa; Baylis, Matthew

2016-11-01

Plague is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, which, during the fourteenth century, caused the deaths of an estimated 75-200 million people in Europe. Plague epidemics still occur in Africa, Asia and South America. Madagascar is today one of the most endemic countries, reporting nearly one third of the human cases worldwide from 2004 to 2009. The persistence of plague in Madagascar is associated with environmental and climatic conditions. In this paper we present a case study of the spatio-temporal analysis of plague incidence in Madagascar from 1980 to 2007. We study the relationship of plague with temperature and precipitation anomalies, and with elevation. A joint spatio-temporal analysis of the data proves to be computationally intractable. We therefore develop a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox process model, but then carry out marginal temporal and spatial analyses. We also introduce a spatially discrete approximation for Gaussian processes, whose parameters retain a spatially continuous interpretation. We find evidence of a cumulative effect, over time, of temperature anomalies on plague incidence, and of a very high relative risk of plague occurrence for locations above 800 m in elevation. Our approach provides a useful modeling framework to assess the relationship between exposures and plague risk, irrespective of the spatial resolution at which the latter has been recorded. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Encoding dependence in Bayesian causal networks

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Bayesian networks (BNs) represent complex, uncertain spatio-temporal dynamics by propagation of conditional probabilities between identifiable states with a testable causal interaction model. Typically, they assume random variables are discrete in time and space with a static network structure that ...

Mining moving object trajectories in location-based services for spatio-temporal database update

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Danhuai; Cui, Weihong

2008-10-01

Advances in wireless transmission and mobile technology applied to LBS (Location-based Services) flood us with amounts of moving objects data. Vast amounts of gathered data from position sensors of mobile phones, PDAs, or vehicles hide interesting and valuable knowledge and describe the behavior of moving objects. The correlation between temporal moving patterns of moving objects and geo-feature spatio-temporal attribute was ignored, and the value of spatio-temporal trajectory data was not fully exploited too. Urban expanding or frequent town plan change bring about a large amount of outdated or imprecise data in spatial database of LBS, and they cannot be updated timely and efficiently by manual processing. In this paper we introduce a data mining approach to movement pattern extraction of moving objects, build a model to describe the relationship between movement patterns of LBS mobile objects and their environment, and put up with a spatio-temporal database update strategy in LBS database based on trajectories spatiotemporal mining. Experimental evaluation reveals excellent performance of the proposed model and strategy. Our original contribution include formulation of model of interaction between trajectory and its environment, design of spatio-temporal database update strategy based on moving objects data mining, and the experimental application of spatio-temporal database update by mining moving objects trajectories.

Pragmatic estimation of a spatio-temporal air quality model with irregular monitoring data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampson, Paul D.; Szpiro, Adam A.; Sheppard, Lianne; Lindström, Johan; Kaufman, Joel D.

2011-11-01

Statistical analyses of health effects of air pollution have increasingly used GIS-based covariates for prediction of ambient air quality in "land use" regression models. More recently these spatial regression models have accounted for spatial correlation structure in combining monitoring data with land use covariates. We present a flexible spatio-temporal modeling framework and pragmatic, multi-step estimation procedure that accommodates essentially arbitrary patterns of missing data with respect to an ideally complete space by time matrix of observations on a network of monitoring sites. The methodology incorporates a model for smooth temporal trends with coefficients varying in space according to Partial Least Squares regressions on a large set of geographic covariates and nonstationary modeling of spatio-temporal residuals from these regressions. This work was developed to provide spatial point predictions of PM 2.5 concentrations for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) using irregular monitoring data derived from the AQS regulatory monitoring network and supplemental short-time scale monitoring campaigns conducted to better predict intra-urban variation in air quality. We demonstrate the interpretation and accuracy of this methodology in modeling data from 2000 through 2006 in six U.S. metropolitan areas and establish a basis for likelihood-based estimation.

[Spatio-temporal problems of geographic information system in marine fishery].

PubMed

Su, Fenzhen; Zhou, Chenghu; Du, Yunyan; Zhang, Tianyu; Shao, Quanqin

2003-09-01

In marine fisheries, it is very important to understand and grasp the spatio-temporal nature. Geographical Information System (GIS) has been applied to describe or forecast the dynamic trend of resources or to set up evaluation model, which is one of high technologies in modern marine fisheries. Based on the review of the development of marine fishery GIS (MFGIS), four spatio-temporal problems it occurred were discussed, and the possible resolutions were prospected.

A spatio-temporal analysis of suicide in El Salvador.

PubMed

Carcach, Carlos

2017-04-20

In 2012, international statistics showed El Salvador's suicide rate as 40th in the world and the highest in Latin America. Over the last 15 years, national statistics show the suicide death rate declining as opposed to an increasing rate of homicide. Though completed suicide is an important social and health issue, little is known about its prevalence, incidence, etiology and spatio-temporal behavior. The primary objective of this study was to examine completed suicide and homicide using the stream analogy to lethal violence within a spatio-temporal framework. A Bayesian model was applied to examine the spatio-temporal evolution of the tendency of completed suicide over homicide in El Salvador. Data on numbers of suicides and homicides at the municipal level were obtained from the Instituto de Medicina Legal (IML) and population counts, from the Dirección General de Estadística y Censos (DIGESTYC), for the period of 2002 to 2012. Data on migration were derived from the 2007 Population Census, and inequality data were obtained from a study by Damianović, Valenzuela and Vera. The data reveal a stable standardized rate of total lethal violence (completed suicide plus homicide) across municipalities over time; a decline in suicide; and a standardized suicide rate decreasing with income inequality but increasing with social isolation. Municipalities clustered in terms of both total lethal violence and suicide standardized rates. Spatial effects for suicide were stronger among municipalities located in the north-east and center-south sides of the country. New clusters of municipalities with large suicide standardized rates were detected in the north-west, south-west and center-south regions, all of which are part of time-stable clusters of homicide. Prevention efforts to reduce income inequality and mitigate the negative effects of weak relational systems should focus upon municipalities forming time-persistent clusters with a large rate of death by suicide. In

Spatio-temporal Organization During Ventricular Fibrillation in the Human Heart.

PubMed

Robson, Jinny; Aram, Parham; Nash, Martyn P; Bradley, Chris P; Hayward, Martin; Paterson, David J; Taggart, Peter; Clayton, Richard H; Kadirkamanathan, Visakan

2018-06-01

In this paper, we present a novel approach to quantify the spatio-temporal organization of electrical activation during human ventricular fibrillation (VF). We propose three different methods based on correlation analysis, graph theoretical measures and hierarchical clustering. Using the proposed approach, we quantified the level of spatio-temporal organization during three episodes of VF in ten patients, recorded using multi-electrode epicardial recordings with 30 s coronary perfusion, 150 s global myocardial ischaemia and 30 s reflow. Our findings show a steady decline in spatio-temporal organization from the onset of VF with coronary perfusion. We observed transient increases in spatio-temporal organization during global myocardial ischaemia. However, the decline in spatio-temporal organization continued during reflow. Our results were consistent across all patients, and were consistent with the numbers of phase singularities. Our findings show that the complex spatio-temporal patterns can be studied using complex network analysis.

Spatio-temporal population estimates for risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cockings, Samantha; Martin, David; Smith, Alan; Martin, Rebecca

2013-04-01

Accurate estimation of population at risk from hazards and effective emergency management of events require not just appropriate spatio-temporal modelling of hazards but also of population. While much recent effort has been focused on improving the modelling and predictions of hazards (both natural and anthropogenic), there has been little parallel advance in the measurement or modelling of population statistics. Different hazard types occur over diverse temporal cycles, are of varying duration and differ significantly in their spatial extent. Even events of the same hazard type, such as flood events, vary markedly in their spatial and temporal characteristics. Conceptually and pragmatically then, population estimates should also be available for similarly varying spatio-temporal scales. Routine population statistics derived from traditional censuses or surveys are usually static representations in both space and time, recording people at their place of usual residence on census/survey night and presenting data for administratively defined areas. Such representations effectively fix the scale of population estimates in both space and time, which is unhelpful for meaningful risk management. Over recent years, the Pop24/7 programme of research, based at the University of Southampton (UK), has developed a framework for spatio-temporal modelling of population, based on gridded population surfaces. Based on a data model which is fully flexible in terms of space and time, the framework allows population estimates to be produced for any time slice relevant to the data contained in the model. It is based around a set of origin and destination centroids, which have capacities, spatial extents and catchment areas, all of which can vary temporally, such as by time of day, day of week, season. A background layer, containing information on features such as transport networks and landuse, provides information on the likelihood of people being in certain places at specific times

Spatio-temporal modelling of rainfall in the Murray-Darling Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowak, Gen; Welsh, A. H.; O'Neill, T. J.; Feng, Lingbing

2018-02-01

The Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) is a large geographical region in southeastern Australia that contains many rivers and creeks, including Australia's three longest rivers, the Murray, the Murrumbidgee and the Darling. Understanding rainfall patterns in the MDB is very important due to the significant impact major events such as droughts and floods have on agricultural and resource productivity. We propose a model for modelling a set of monthly rainfall data obtained from stations in the MDB and for producing predictions in both the spatial and temporal dimensions. The model is a hierarchical spatio-temporal model fitted to geographical data that utilises both deterministic and data-derived components. Specifically, rainfall data at a given location are modelled as a linear combination of these deterministic and data-derived components. A key advantage of the model is that it is fitted in a step-by-step fashion, enabling appropriate empirical choices to be made at each step.

Hierarchic spatio-temporal dynamics in glycolysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shinjyo, Takahiro; Nakagawa, Yoshiyuki; Ueda, Tetsuo

Yeast extracts exhibit oscillations when the glycolytic system is far away from equilibrium. Spatio-temporal dynamics in this system was studied in the newly developed gel as well as in the solution. Small regions (about 10 um) with very complex shape with high or low concentrations of NADH appeared, and upon these small structures large-scale dynamics were superimposed. Concentration waves propagated, and the source of wave was induced by contact with high ADP. Sink of waves was generated by contacting the reaction gel to two small gels rich in ADP. Upon these spatio-temporal dynamics were superimposed much slower global oscillations throughout the system with a period of about 40 min. Similar dynamics was seen in a solution of yeast extract, but the size of domains was about ten times larger than that in the gel. In this way, the multi-enzyme system of glycolysis exhibits self-organization of hierarchy in spatio-temporal dynamics.

Determining Spatio-Temporal Cadastral Data Requirement for Infrastructure of Ladm for Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alkan, M.; Polat, Z. A.

2016-06-01

Nowadays, the nature of land title and cadastral (LTC) data in the Turkey is dynamic from a temporal perspective which depends on the LTC operations. Functional requirements with respect to the characteristics are investigated based upon interviews of professionals in public and private sectors. These are; Legal authorities, Land Registry and Cadastre offices, Highway departments, Foundations, Ministries of Budget, Transportation, Justice, Public Works and Settlement, Environment and Forestry, Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Culture and Internal Affairs, State Institute of Statistics (SIS), execution offices, tax offices, real estate offices, private sector, local governments and banks. On the other hand, spatio-temporal LTC data very important component for creating infrastructure of Land Administration Model (LADM). For this reason, spatio-temporal LTC data needs for LADM not only updated but also temporal. The investigations ended up with determine temporal analyses of LTC data, traditional LTC system and tracing temporal analyses in traditional LTC system. In the traditional system, the temporal analyses needed by all these users could not be performed in a rapid and reliable way. The reason for this is that the traditional LTC system is a manual archiving system. The aims and general contents of this paper: (1) define traditional LTC system of Turkey; (2) determining the need for spatio-temporal LTC data and analyses for core domain model for LADM. As a results of temporal and spatio-temporal analysis LTC data needs, new system design is important for the Turkish LADM model. Designing and realizing an efficient and functional Temporal Geographic Information Systems (TGIS) is inevitable for the Turkish LADM core infrastructure. Finally this paper outcome is creating infrastructure for design and develop LADM for Turkey.

Discriminability limits in spatio-temporal stereo block matching.

PubMed

Jain, Ankit K; Nguyen, Truong Q

2014-05-01

Disparity estimation is a fundamental task in stereo imaging and is a well-studied problem. Recently, methods have been adapted to the video domain where motion is used as a matching criterion to help disambiguate spatially similar candidates. In this paper, we analyze the validity of the underlying assumptions of spatio-temporal disparity estimation, and determine the extent to which motion aids the matching process. By analyzing the error signal for spatio-temporal block matching under the sum of squared differences criterion and treating motion as a stochastic process, we determine the probability of a false match as a function of image features, motion distribution, image noise, and number of frames in the spatio-temporal patch. This performance quantification provides insight into when spatio-temporal matching is most beneficial in terms of the scene and motion, and can be used as a guide to select parameters for stereo matching algorithms. We validate our results through simulation and experiments on stereo video.

A Hybrid Spatio-Temporal Data Indexing Method for Trajectory Databases

PubMed Central

Ke, Shengnan; Gong, Jun; Li, Songnian; Zhu, Qing; Liu, Xintao; Zhang, Yeting

2014-01-01

In recent years, there has been tremendous growth in the field of indoor and outdoor positioning sensors continuously producing huge volumes of trajectory data that has been used in many fields such as location-based services or location intelligence. Trajectory data is massively increased and semantically complicated, which poses a great challenge on spatio-temporal data indexing. This paper proposes a spatio-temporal data indexing method, named HBSTR-tree, which is a hybrid index structure comprising spatio-temporal R-tree, B*-tree and Hash table. To improve the index generation efficiency, rather than directly inserting trajectory points, we group consecutive trajectory points as nodes according to their spatio-temporal semantics and then insert them into spatio-temporal R-tree as leaf nodes. Hash table is used to manage the latest leaf nodes to reduce the frequency of insertion. A new spatio-temporal interval criterion and a new node-choosing sub-algorithm are also proposed to optimize spatio-temporal R-tree structures. In addition, a B*-tree sub-index of leaf nodes is built to query the trajectories of targeted objects efficiently. Furthermore, a database storage scheme based on a NoSQL-type DBMS is also proposed for the purpose of cloud storage. Experimental results prove that HBSTR-tree outperforms TB*-tree in some aspects such as generation efficiency, query performance and query type. PMID:25051028

A hybrid spatio-temporal data indexing method for trajectory databases.

PubMed

Ke, Shengnan; Gong, Jun; Li, Songnian; Zhu, Qing; Liu, Xintao; Zhang, Yeting

2014-07-21

In recent years, there has been tremendous growth in the field of indoor and outdoor positioning sensors continuously producing huge volumes of trajectory data that has been used in many fields such as location-based services or location intelligence. Trajectory data is massively increased and semantically complicated, which poses a great challenge on spatio-temporal data indexing. This paper proposes a spatio-temporal data indexing method, named HBSTR-tree, which is a hybrid index structure comprising spatio-temporal R-tree, B*-tree and Hash table. To improve the index generation efficiency, rather than directly inserting trajectory points, we group consecutive trajectory points as nodes according to their spatio-temporal semantics and then insert them into spatio-temporal R-tree as leaf nodes. Hash table is used to manage the latest leaf nodes to reduce the frequency of insertion. A new spatio-temporal interval criterion and a new node-choosing sub-algorithm are also proposed to optimize spatio-temporal R-tree structures. In addition, a B*-tree sub-index of leaf nodes is built to query the trajectories of targeted objects efficiently. Furthermore, a database storage scheme based on a NoSQL-type DBMS is also proposed for the purpose of cloud storage. Experimental results prove that HBSTR-tree outperforms TB*-tree in some aspects such as generation efficiency, query performance and query type.

A LANGUAGE FOR MODULAR SPATIO-TEMPORAL SIMULATION (R824766)

EPA Science Inventory

Creating an effective environment for collaborative spatio-temporal model development will require computational systems that provide support for the user in three key areas: (1) Support for modular, hierarchical model construction and archiving/linking of simulation modules; (2)...

Cubic map algebra functions for spatio-temporal analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mennis, J.; Viger, R.; Tomlin, C.D.

2005-01-01

We propose an extension of map algebra to three dimensions for spatio-temporal data handling. This approach yields a new class of map algebra functions that we call "cube functions." Whereas conventional map algebra functions operate on data layers representing two-dimensional space, cube functions operate on data cubes representing two-dimensional space over a third-dimensional period of time. We describe the prototype implementation of a spatio-temporal data structure and selected cube function versions of conventional local, focal, and zonal map algebra functions. The utility of cube functions is demonstrated through a case study analyzing the spatio-temporal variability of remotely sensed, southeastern U.S. vegetation character over various land covers and during different El Nin??o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases. Like conventional map algebra, the application of cube functions may demand significant data preprocessing when integrating diverse data sets, and are subject to limitations related to data storage and algorithm performance. Solutions to these issues include extending data compression and computing strategies for calculations on very large data volumes to spatio-temporal data handling.

Spatio-temporal Hotelling observer for signal detection from image sequences

PubMed Central

Caucci, Luca; Barrett, Harrison H.; Rodríguez, Jeffrey J.

2010-01-01

Detection of signals in noisy images is necessary in many applications, including astronomy and medical imaging. The optimal linear observer for performing a detection task, called the Hotelling observer in the medical literature, can be regarded as a generalization of the familiar prewhitening matched filter. Performance on the detection task is limited by randomness in the image data, which stems from randomness in the object, randomness in the imaging system, and randomness in the detector outputs due to photon and readout noise, and the Hotelling observer accounts for all of these effects in an optimal way. If multiple temporal frames of images are acquired, the resulting data set is a spatio-temporal random process, and the Hotelling observer becomes a spatio-temporal linear operator. This paper discusses the theory of the spatio-temporal Hotelling observer and estimation of the required spatio-temporal covariance matrices. It also presents a parallel implementation of the observer on a cluster of Sony PLAYSTATION 3 gaming consoles. As an example, we consider the use of the spatio-temporal Hotelling observer for exoplanet detection. PMID:19550494

Spatio-temporal Hotelling observer for signal detection from image sequences.

PubMed

Caucci, Luca; Barrett, Harrison H; Rodriguez, Jeffrey J

2009-06-22

Detection of signals in noisy images is necessary in many applications, including astronomy and medical imaging. The optimal linear observer for performing a detection task, called the Hotelling observer in the medical literature, can be regarded as a generalization of the familiar prewhitening matched filter. Performance on the detection task is limited by randomness in the image data, which stems from randomness in the object, randomness in the imaging system, and randomness in the detector outputs due to photon and readout noise, and the Hotelling observer accounts for all of these effects in an optimal way. If multiple temporal frames of images are acquired, the resulting data set is a spatio-temporal random process, and the Hotelling observer becomes a spatio-temporal linear operator. This paper discusses the theory of the spatio-temporal Hotelling observer and estimation of the required spatio-temporal covariance matrices. It also presents a parallel implementation of the observer on a cluster of Sony PLAYSTATION 3 gaming consoles. As an example, we consider the use of the spatio-temporal Hotelling observer for exoplanet detection.

Assessing spatio-temporal eruption forecasts in a monogenetic volcanic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bebbington, Mark S.

2013-02-01

Many spatio-temporal models have been proposed for forecasting the location and timing of the next eruption in a monogenetic volcanic field. These have almost invariably been fitted retrospectively. That is, the model has been tuned to all of the data, and hence an assessment of the goodness of fit has not been carried out on independent data. The low rate of eruptions in monogenetic fields means that there is not the opportunity to carry out a purely prospective test, as thousands of years would be required to accumulate the necessary data. This leaves open the possibility of a retrospective sequential test, where the parameters are calculated only on the basis of prior events and the resulting forecast compared statistically with the location and time of the next eruption. In general, events in volcanic fields are not dated with sufficient accuracy and precision to pursue this line of investigation; An exception is the Auckland Volcanic Field (New Zealand), consisting of c. 50 centers formed during the last c. 250 kyr, for which an age-order model exists in the form of a Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, facilitating repeated sequential testing. I examine a suite of spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal hazard models, comparing the degree of fit, and attempt to draw lessons from how and where each model is particularly successful or unsuccessful. A relatively simple (independent) combination of a renewal model (temporal term) and a spatially uniform ellipse (spatial term) performs as well as any other model. Both avoid over fitting the data, and hence large errors, when the spatio-temporal occurrence pattern changes.

Spatio-temporal correlations in models of collective motion ruled by different dynamical laws.

PubMed

Cavagna, Andrea; Conti, Daniele; Giardina, Irene; Grigera, Tomas S; Melillo, Stefania; Viale, Massimiliano

2016-11-15

Information transfer is an essential factor in determining the robustness of biological systems with distributed control. The most direct way to study the mechanisms ruling information transfer is to experimentally observe the propagation across the system of a signal triggered by some perturbation. However, this method may be inefficient for experiments in the field, as the possibilities to perturb the system are limited and empirical observations must rely on natural events. An alternative approach is to use spatio-temporal correlations to probe the information transfer mechanism directly from the spontaneous fluctuations of the system, without the need to have an actual propagating signal on record. Here we test this method on models of collective behaviour in their deeply ordered phase by using ground truth data provided by numerical simulations in three dimensions. We compare two models characterized by very different dynamical equations and information transfer mechanisms: the classic Vicsek model, describing an overdamped noninertial dynamics and the inertial spin model, characterized by an underdamped inertial dynamics. By using dynamic finite-size scaling, we show that spatio-temporal correlations are able to distinguish unambiguously the diffusive information transfer mechanism of the Vicsek model from the linear mechanism of the inertial spin model.

Spatio-temporal scaling of channels in braided streams.

Treesearch

A.G. Hunt; G.E. Grant; V.K. Gupta

2006-01-01

The spatio-temporal scaling relationship for individual channels in braided streams is shown to be identical to the spatio-temporal scaling associated with constant Froude number, e.g., Fr = l. A means to derive this relationship is developed from a new theory of sediment transport. The mechanism by which the Fr = l condition apparently governs the scaling seems to...

An agent-based model driven by tropical rainfall to understand the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of a chikungunya outbreak.

PubMed

Dommar, Carlos J; Lowe, Rachel; Robinson, Marguerite; Rodó, Xavier

2014-01-01

Vector-borne diseases, such as dengue, malaria and chikungunya, are increasing across their traditional ranges and continuing to infiltrate new, previously unaffected, regions. The spatio-temporal evolution of these diseases is determined by the interaction of the host and vector, which is strongly dependent on social structures and mobility patterns. We develop an agent-based model (ABM), in which each individual is explicitly represented and vector populations are linked to precipitation estimates in a tropical setting. The model is implemented on both scale-free and regular networks. The spatio-temporal transmission of chikungunya is analysed and the presence of asymptomatic silent spreaders within the population is investigated in the context of implementing travel restrictions during an outbreak. Preventing the movement of symptomatic individuals is found to be an insufficient mechanism to halt the spread of the disease, which can be readily carried to neighbouring nodes via sub-clinical individuals. Furthermore, the impact of topology structure vs. precipitation levels is assessed and precipitation is found to be the dominant factor driving spatio-temporal transmission. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Uncertainties in data-model comparisons: Spatio-temporal scales for past climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, G.

2016-12-01

Data-model comparisons are hindered by uncertainties like varying reservoir ages or potential seasonality bias of the recorder systems, but also due to the models' difficulty to represent the spatio-temporal variability patterns. For the Holocene we detect a sensitivity to horizontal resolution in the atmosphere, the representation of atmospheric dynamics, as well as the dynamics of the western boundary currents in the ocean. These features can create strong spatial heterogeneity in the North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans over long timescales (unlike a diffusive spatio-temporal scale separation). Futhermore, it is shown that such non-linear mechanisms could create a non-trivial response to seasonal insolation forcing via an atmospheric bridge inducing non-uniform temperature anomalies over the northern continents on multi-millennial time scales. Through the fluctuation-dissipation-theorem, climate variability and sensitivity are ultimately coupled. It is argued that some obvious biases between models and data may be linked to the missing key persistent component of the atmospheric dynamics, the North Atlantic blocking activity. It is shown that blocking is also linked to Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability and to extreme events. Interestingly, several proxies provide a measure of the frequency of extreme events, and a proper representation is a true challenge for climate models. Finally, case studies from deep paleo are presented in which changes in land-sea distribution or subscale parameterizations can cause relatively large effects on surface temperature. Such experiments can explore the phase space of solutions, but show the limitation of past climates to constrain climate sensitivity.

A Spatio-temporal Model of African Animal Trypanosomosis Risk

PubMed Central

Dicko, Ahmadou H.; Percoma, Lassane; Sow, Adama; Adam, Yahaya; Mahama, Charles; Sidibé, Issa; Dayo, Guiguigbaza-Kossigan; Thévenon, Sophie; Fonta, William; Sanfo, Safietou; Djiteye, Aligui; Salou, Ernest; Djohan, Vincent; Cecchi, Giuliano; Bouyer, Jérémy

2015-01-01

Background African animal trypanosomosis (AAT) is a major constraint to sustainable development of cattle farming in sub-Saharan Africa. The habitat of the tsetse fly vector is increasingly fragmented owing to demographic pressure and shifts in climate, which leads to heterogeneous risk of cyclical transmission both in space and time. In Burkina Faso and Ghana, the most important vectors are riverine species, namely Glossina palpalis gambiensis and G. tachinoides, which are more resilient to human-induced changes than the savannah and forest species. Although many authors studied the distribution of AAT risk both in space and time, spatio-temporal models allowing predictions of it are lacking. Methodology/Principal Findings We used datasets generated by various projects, including two baseline surveys conducted in Burkina Faso and Ghana within PATTEC (Pan African Tsetse and Trypanosomosis Eradication Campaign) national initiatives. We computed the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) or tsetse challenge using a range of environmental data. The tsetse apparent density and their infection rate were separately estimated and subsequently combined to derive the EIR using a “one layer-one model” approach. The estimated EIR was then projected into suitable habitat. This risk index was finally validated against data on bovine trypanosomosis. It allowed a good prediction of the parasitological status (r2 = 67%), showed a positive correlation but less predictive power with serological status (r2 = 22%) aggregated at the village level but was not related to the illness status (r2 = 2%). Conclusions/Significance The presented spatio-temporal model provides a fine-scale picture of the dynamics of AAT risk in sub-humid areas of West Africa. The estimated EIR was high in the proximity of rivers during the dry season and more widespread during the rainy season. The present analysis is a first step in a broader framework for an efficient risk management of climate

What Is Spatio-Temporal Data Warehousing?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaisman, Alejandro; Zimányi, Esteban

In the last years, extending OLAP (On-Line Analytical Processing) systems with spatial and temporal features has attracted the attention of the GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and database communities. However, there is no a commonly agreed definition of what is a spatio-temporal data warehouse and what functionality such a data warehouse should support. Further, the solutions proposed in the literature vary considerably in the kind of data that can be represented as well as the kind of queries that can be expressed. In this paper we present a conceptual framework for defining spatio-temporal data warehouses using an extensible data type system. We also define a taxonomy of different classes of queries of increasing expressive power, and show how to express such queries using an extension of the tuple relational calculus with aggregated functions.

Spatio-Temporal Process Simulation of Dam-Break Flood Based on SPH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, H.; Ye, F.; Ouyang, S.; Li, Z.

2018-04-01

On the basis of introducing the SPH (Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics) simulation method, the key research problems were given solutions in this paper, which ere the spatial scale and temporal scale adapting to the GIS(Geographical Information System) application, the boundary condition equations combined with the underlying surface, and the kernel function and parameters applicable to dam-break flood simulation. In this regards, a calculation method of spatio-temporal process emulation with elaborate particles for dam-break flood was proposed. Moreover the spatio-temporal process was dynamic simulated by using GIS modelling and visualization. The results show that the method gets more information, objectiveness and real situations.

Annotating spatio-temporal datasets for meaningful analysis in the Web

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stasch, Christoph; Pebesma, Edzer; Scheider, Simon

2014-05-01

More and more environmental datasets that vary in space and time are available in the Web. This comes along with an advantage of using the data for other purposes than originally foreseen, but also with the danger that users may apply inappropriate analysis procedures due to lack of important assumptions made during the data collection process. In order to guide towards a meaningful (statistical) analysis of spatio-temporal datasets available in the Web, we have developed a Higher-Order-Logic formalism that captures some relevant assumptions in our previous work [1]. It allows to proof on meaningful spatial prediction and aggregation in a semi-automated fashion. In this poster presentation, we will present a concept for annotating spatio-temporal datasets available in the Web with concepts defined in our formalism. Therefore, we have defined a subset of the formalism as a Web Ontology Language (OWL) pattern. It allows capturing the distinction between the different spatio-temporal variable types, i.e. point patterns, fields, lattices and trajectories, that in turn determine whether a particular dataset can be interpolated or aggregated in a meaningful way using a certain procedure. The actual annotations that link spatio-temporal datasets with the concepts in the ontology pattern are provided as Linked Data. In order to allow data producers to add the annotations to their datasets, we have implemented a Web portal that uses a triple store at the backend to store the annotations and to make them available in the Linked Data cloud. Furthermore, we have implemented functions in the statistical environment R to retrieve the RDF annotations and, based on these annotations, to support a stronger typing of spatio-temporal datatypes guiding towards a meaningful analysis in R. [1] Stasch, C., Scheider, S., Pebesma, E., Kuhn, W. (2014): "Meaningful spatial prediction and aggregation", Environmental Modelling & Software, 51, 149-165.

Spatio-temporal cluster detection of chickenpox in Valencia, Spain in the period 2008-2012.

PubMed

Iftimi, Adina; Martínez-Ruiz, Francisco; Míguez Santiyán, Ana; Montes, Francisco

2015-05-18

Chickenpox is a highly contagious airborne disease caused by Varicella zoster, which affects nearly all non-immune children worldwide with an annual incidence estimated at 80-90 million cases. To analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of the chickenpox incidence in the city of Valencia, Spain two complementary statistical approaches were used. First, we evaluated the existence of clusters and spatio-temporal interaction; secondly, we used this information to find the locations of the spatio-temporal clusters via the space-time permutation model. The first method used detects any aggregation in our data but does not provide the spatial and temporal information. The second method gives the locations, areas and time-frame for the spatio-temporal clusters. An overall decreasing time trend, a pronounced 12-monthly periodicity and two complementary periods were observed. Several areas with high incidence, surrounding the center of the city were identified. The existence of aggregation in time and space was observed, and a number of spatio-temporal clusters were located.

Fast Spatio-Temporal Data Mining from Large Geophysical Datasets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stolorz, P.; Mesrobian, E.; Muntz, R.; Santos, J. R.; Shek, E.; Yi, J.; Mechoso, C.; Farrara, J.

1995-01-01

Use of the UCLA CONQUEST (CONtent-based Querying in Space and Time) is reviewed for performance of automatic cyclone extraction and detection of spatio-temporal blocking conditions on MPP. CONQUEST is a data analysis environment for knowledge and data mining to aid in high-resolution modeling of climate modeling.

Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio–Temporal Analysis of Climatic and Socio–Economic Determinants of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever

PubMed Central

Raghavan, Ram K.; Goodin, Douglas G.; Neises, Daniel; Anderson, Gary A.; Ganta, Roman R.

2016-01-01

This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) prevalence in four contiguous states of Midwestern United States, and to determine the impact of environmental and socio–economic factors associated with this disease. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to quantify space and time only trends and spatio–temporal interaction effect in the case reports submitted to the state health departments in the region. Various socio–economic, environmental and climatic covariates screened a priori in a bivariate procedure were added to a main–effects Bayesian model in progressive steps to evaluate important drivers of RMSF space-time patterns in the region. Our results show a steady increase in RMSF incidence over the study period to newer geographic areas, and the posterior probabilities of county-specific trends indicate clustering of high risk counties in the central and southern parts of the study region. At the spatial scale of a county, the prevalence levels of RMSF is influenced by poverty status, average relative humidity, and average land surface temperature (>35°C) in the region, and the relevance of these factors in the context of climate–change impacts on tick–borne diseases are discussed. PMID:26942604

Spatio-temporal modelling of wind speed variations and extremes in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rychlik, Igor; Mao, Wengang

2018-02-01

The wind speed variability in the North Atlantic has been successfully modelled using a spatio-temporal transformed Gaussian field. However, this type of model does not correctly describe the extreme wind speeds attributed to tropical storms and hurricanes. In this study, the transformed Gaussian model is further developed to include the occurrence of severe storms. In this new model, random components are added to the transformed Gaussian field to model rare events with extreme wind speeds. The resulting random field is locally stationary and homogeneous. The localized dependence structure is described by time- and space-dependent parameters. The parameters have a natural physical interpretation. To exemplify its application, the model is fitted to the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data set. The model is applied to compute long-term wind speed distributions and return values, e.g., 100- or 1000-year extreme wind speeds, and to simulate random wind speed time series at a fixed location or spatio-temporal wind fields around that location.

A spatio-temporal model for estimating the long-term effects of air pollution on respiratory hospital admissions in Greater London.

PubMed

Rushworth, Alastair; Lee, Duncan; Mitchell, Richard

2014-07-01

It has long been known that air pollution is harmful to human health, as many epidemiological studies have been conducted into its effects. Collectively, these studies have investigated both the acute and chronic effects of pollution, with the latter typically based on individual level cohort designs that can be expensive to implement. As a result of the increasing availability of small-area statistics, ecological spatio-temporal study designs are also being used, with which a key statistical problem is allowing for residual spatio-temporal autocorrelation that remains after the covariate effects have been removed. We present a new model for estimating the effects of air pollution on human health, which allows for residual spatio-temporal autocorrelation, and a study into the long-term effects of air pollution on human health in Greater London, England. The individual and joint effects of different pollutants are explored, via the use of single pollutant models and multiple pollutant indices. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Image Motion Detection And Estimation: The Modified Spatio-Temporal Gradient Scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsin, Cheng-Ho; Inigo, Rafael M.

1990-03-01

The detection and estimation of motion are generally involved in computing a velocity field of time-varying images. A completely new modified spatio-temporal gradient scheme to determine motion is proposed. This is derived by using gradient methods and properties of biological vision. A set of general constraints is proposed to derive motion constraint equations. The constraints are that the second directional derivatives of image intensity at an edge point in the smoothed image will be constant at times t and t+L . This scheme basically has two stages: spatio-temporal filtering, and velocity estimation. Initially, image sequences are processed by a set of oriented spatio-temporal filters which are designed using a Gaussian derivative model. The velocity is then estimated for these filtered image sequences based on the gradient approach. From a computational stand point, this scheme offers at least three advantages over current methods. The greatest advantage of the modified spatio-temporal gradient scheme over the traditional ones is that an infinite number of motion constraint equations are derived instead of only one. Therefore, it solves the aperture problem without requiring any additional assumptions and is simply a local process. The second advantage is that because of the spatio-temporal filtering, the direct computation of image gradients (discrete derivatives) is avoided. Therefore the error in gradients measurement is reduced significantly. The third advantage is that during the processing of motion detection and estimation algorithm, image features (edges) are produced concurrently with motion information. The reliable range of detected velocity is determined by parameters of the oriented spatio-temporal filters. Knowing the velocity sensitivity of a single motion detection channel, a multiple-channel mechanism for estimating image velocity, seldom addressed by other motion schemes in machine vision, can be constructed by appropriately choosing and

Numerical solution of a spatio-temporal gender-structured model for hantavirus infection in rodents.

PubMed

Bürger, Raimund; Chowell, Gerardo; Gavilán, Elvis; Mulet, Pep; Villada, Luis M

2018-02-01

In this article we describe the transmission dynamics of hantavirus in rodents using a spatio-temporal susceptible-exposed-infective-recovered (SEIR) compartmental model that distinguishes between male and female subpopulations [L.J.S. Allen, R.K. McCormack and C.B. Jonsson, Bull. Math. Biol. 68 (2006), 511--524]. Both subpopulations are assumed to differ in their movement with respect to local variations in the densities of their own and the opposite gender group. Three alternative models for the movement of the male individuals are examined. In some cases the movement is not only directed by the gradient of a density (as in the standard diffusive case), but also by a non-local convolution of density values as proposed, in another context, in [R.M. Colombo and E. Rossi, Commun. Math. Sci., 13 (2015), 369--400]. An efficient numerical method for the resulting convection-diffusion-reaction system of partial differential equations is proposed. This method involves techniques of weighted essentially non-oscillatory (WENO) reconstructions in combination with implicit-explicit Runge-Kutta (IMEX-RK) methods for time stepping. The numerical results demonstrate significant differences in the spatio-temporal behavior predicted by the different models, which suggest future research directions.

Emergent dynamics of spatio-temporal chaos in a heterogeneous excitable medium.

PubMed

Bittihn, Philip; Berg, Sebastian; Parlitz, Ulrich; Luther, Stefan

2017-09-01

Self-organized activation patterns in excitable media such as spiral waves and spatio-temporal chaos underlie dangerous cardiac arrhythmias. While the interaction of single spiral waves with different types of heterogeneity has been studied extensively, the effect of heterogeneity on fully developed spatio-temporal chaos remains poorly understood. We investigate how the complexity and stability properties of spatio-temporal chaos in the Bär-Eiswirth model of excitable media depend on the heterogeneity of the underlying medium. We employ different measures characterizing the chaoticity of the system and find that the spatial arrangement of multiple discrete lower excitability regions has a strong impact on the complexity of the dynamics. Varying the number, shape, and spatial arrangement of the heterogeneities, we observe strong emergent effects ranging from increases in chaoticity to the complete cessation of chaos, contrasting the expectation from the homogeneous behavior. The implications of our findings for the development and treatment of arrhythmias in the heterogeneous cardiac muscle are discussed.

Emergent dynamics of spatio-temporal chaos in a heterogeneous excitable medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bittihn, Philip; Berg, Sebastian; Parlitz, Ulrich; Luther, Stefan

2017-09-01

Self-organized activation patterns in excitable media such as spiral waves and spatio-temporal chaos underlie dangerous cardiac arrhythmias. While the interaction of single spiral waves with different types of heterogeneity has been studied extensively, the effect of heterogeneity on fully developed spatio-temporal chaos remains poorly understood. We investigate how the complexity and stability properties of spatio-temporal chaos in the Bär-Eiswirth model of excitable media depend on the heterogeneity of the underlying medium. We employ different measures characterizing the chaoticity of the system and find that the spatial arrangement of multiple discrete lower excitability regions has a strong impact on the complexity of the dynamics. Varying the number, shape, and spatial arrangement of the heterogeneities, we observe strong emergent effects ranging from increases in chaoticity to the complete cessation of chaos, contrasting the expectation from the homogeneous behavior. The implications of our findings for the development and treatment of arrhythmias in the heterogeneous cardiac muscle are discussed.

Spatio-temporal Outlier Detection in Precipitation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Elizabeth; Liu, Wei; Chawla, Sanjay

The detection of outliers from spatio-temporal data is an important task due to the increasing amount of spatio-temporal data available and the need to understand and interpret it. Due to the limitations of current data mining techniques, new techniques to handle this data need to be developed. We propose a spatio-temporal outlier detection algorithm called Outstretch, which discovers the outlier movement patterns of the top-k spatial outliers over several time periods. The top-k spatial outliers are found using the Exact-Grid Top- k and Approx-Grid Top- k algorithms, which are an extension of algorithms developed by Agarwal et al. [1]. Since they use the Kulldorff spatial scan statistic, they are capable of discovering all outliers, unaffected by neighbouring regions that may contain missing values. After generating the outlier sequences, we show one way they can be interpreted, by comparing them to the phases of the El Niño Southern Oscilliation (ENSO) weather phenomenon to provide a meaningful analysis of the results.

Topologically Consistent Models for Efficient Big Geo-Spatio Data Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jahn, M. W.; Bradley, P. E.; Doori, M. Al; Breunig, M.

2017-10-01

Geo-spatio-temporal topology models are likely to become a key concept to check the consistency of 3D (spatial space) and 4D (spatial + temporal space) models for emerging GIS applications such as subsurface reservoir modelling or the simulation of energy and water supply of mega or smart cities. Furthermore, the data management for complex models consisting of big geo-spatial data is a challenge for GIS and geo-database research. General challenges, concepts, and techniques of big geo-spatial data management are presented. In this paper we introduce a sound mathematical approach for a topologically consistent geo-spatio-temporal model based on the concept of the incidence graph. We redesign DB4GeO, our service-based geo-spatio-temporal database architecture, on the way to the parallel management of massive geo-spatial data. Approaches for a new geo-spatio-temporal and object model of DB4GeO meeting the requirements of big geo-spatial data are discussed in detail. Finally, a conclusion and outlook on our future research are given on the way to support the processing of geo-analytics and -simulations in a parallel and distributed system environment.

Visual search of cyclic spatio-temporal events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautier, Jacques; Davoine, Paule-Annick; Cunty, Claire

2018-05-01

The analysis of spatio-temporal events, and especially of relationships between their different dimensions (space-time-thematic attributes), can be done with geovisualization interfaces. But few geovisualization tools integrate the cyclic dimension of spatio-temporal event series (natural events or social events). Time Coil and Time Wave diagrams represent both the linear time and the cyclic time. By introducing a cyclic temporal scale, these diagrams may highlight the cyclic characteristics of spatio-temporal events. However, the settable cyclic temporal scales are limited to usual durations like days or months. Because of that, these diagrams cannot be used to visualize cyclic events, which reappear with an unusual period, and don't allow to make a visual search of cyclic events. Also, they don't give the possibility to identify the relationships between the cyclic behavior of the events and their spatial features, and more especially to identify localised cyclic events. The lack of possibilities to represent the cyclic time, outside of the temporal diagram of multi-view geovisualization interfaces, limits the analysis of relationships between the cyclic reappearance of events and their other dimensions. In this paper, we propose a method and a geovisualization tool, based on the extension of Time Coil and Time Wave, to provide a visual search of cyclic events, by allowing to set any possible duration to the diagram's cyclic temporal scale. We also propose a symbology approach to push the representation of the cyclic time into the map, in order to improve the analysis of relationships between space and the cyclic behavior of events.

Sensitivity of a Bayesian atmospheric-transport inversion model to spatio-temporal sensor resolution applied to the 2006 North Korean nuclear test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundquist, K. A.; Jensen, D. D.; Lucas, D. D.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric source reconstruction allows for the probabilistic estimate of source characteristics of an atmospheric release using observations of the release. Performance of the inversion depends partially on the temporal frequency and spatial scale of the observations. The objective of this study is to quantify the sensitivity of the source reconstruction method to sparse spatial and temporal observations. To this end, simulations of atmospheric transport of noble gasses are created for the 2006 nuclear test at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. Synthetic observations are collected from the simulation, and are taken as "ground truth". Data denial techniques are used to progressively coarsen the temporal and spatial resolution of the synthetic observations, while the source reconstruction model seeks to recover the true input parameters from the synthetic observations. Reconstructed parameters considered here are source location, source timing and source quantity. Reconstruction is achieved by running an ensemble of thousands of dispersion model runs that sample from a uniform distribution of the input parameters. Machine learning is used to train a computationally-efficient surrogate model from the ensemble simulations. Monte Carlo sampling and Bayesian inversion are then used in conjunction with the surrogate model to quantify the posterior probability density functions of source input parameters. This research seeks to inform decision makers of the tradeoffs between more expensive, high frequency observations and less expensive, low frequency observations.

Motion-adaptive spatio-temporal regularization for accelerated dynamic MRI.

PubMed

Asif, M Salman; Hamilton, Lei; Brummer, Marijn; Romberg, Justin

2013-09-01

Accelerated magnetic resonance imaging techniques reduce signal acquisition time by undersampling k-space. A fundamental problem in accelerated magnetic resonance imaging is the recovery of quality images from undersampled k-space data. Current state-of-the-art recovery algorithms exploit the spatial and temporal structures in underlying images to improve the reconstruction quality. In recent years, compressed sensing theory has helped formulate mathematical principles and conditions that ensure recovery of (structured) sparse signals from undersampled, incoherent measurements. In this article, a new recovery algorithm, motion-adaptive spatio-temporal regularization, is presented that uses spatial and temporal structured sparsity of MR images in the compressed sensing framework to recover dynamic MR images from highly undersampled k-space data. In contrast to existing algorithms, our proposed algorithm models temporal sparsity using motion-adaptive linear transformations between neighboring images. The efficiency of motion-adaptive spatio-temporal regularization is demonstrated with experiments on cardiac magnetic resonance imaging for a range of reduction factors. Results are also compared with k-t FOCUSS with motion estimation and compensation-another recently proposed recovery algorithm for dynamic magnetic resonance imaging. . Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Spatio-temporal interactions facilitate large carnivore sympatry across a resource gradient

PubMed Central

Karanth, K. Ullas; Srivathsa, Arjun; Puri, Mahi; Parameshwaran, Ravishankar; Kumar, N. Samba

2017-01-01

Species within a guild vary their use of time, space and resources, thereby enabling sympatry. As intra-guild competition intensifies, such behavioural adaptations may become prominent. We assessed mechanisms of facilitating sympatry among dhole (Cuon alpinus), leopard (Panthera pardus) and tiger (Panthera tigris) in tropical forests of India using camera-trap surveys. We examined population-level temporal, spatial and spatio-temporal segregation among them across four reserves representing a gradient of carnivore and prey densities. Temporal and spatial overlaps were higher at lower prey densities. Combined spatio-temporal overlap was minimal, possibly due to chance. We found fine-scale avoidance behaviours at one high-density reserve. Our results suggest that: (i) patterns of spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal segregation in sympatric carnivores do not necessarily mirror each other; (ii) carnivores are likely to adopt temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal segregation as alternative mechanisms to facilitate sympatry; and (iii) carnivores show adaptability across a gradient of resource availability, a driver of inter-species competition. We discuss behavioural mechanisms that permit carnivores to co-occupy rather than dominate functional niches, and adaptations to varying intensities of competition that are likely to shape structure and dynamics of carnivore guilds. PMID:28179511

Agent Based Modeling: Fine-Scale Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Pertussis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, D. A.

2017-10-01

In epidemiology, spatial and temporal variables are used to compute vaccination efficacy and effectiveness. The chosen resolution and scale of a spatial or spatio-temporal analysis will affect the results. When calculating vaccination efficacy, for example, a simple environment that offers various ideal outcomes is often modeled using coarse scale data aggregated on an annual basis. In contrast to the inadequacy of this aggregated method, this research uses agent based modeling of fine-scale neighborhood data centered around the interactions of infants in daycare and their families to demonstrate an accurate reflection of vaccination capabilities. Despite being able to prevent major symptoms, recent studies suggest that acellular Pertussis does not prevent the colonization and transmission of Bordetella Pertussis bacteria. After vaccination, a treated individual becomes a potential asymptomatic carrier of the Pertussis bacteria, rather than an immune individual. Agent based modeling enables the measurable depiction of asymptomatic carriers that are otherwise unaccounted for when calculating vaccination efficacy and effectiveness. Using empirical data from a Florida Pertussis outbreak case study, the results of this model demonstrate that asymptomatic carriers bias the calculated vaccination efficacy and reveal a need for reconsidering current methods that are widely used for calculating vaccination efficacy and effectiveness.

The influence of natural factors on the spatio-temporal distribution of Oncomelania hupensis.

PubMed

Cheng, Gong; Li, Dan; Zhuang, Dafang; Wang, Yong

2016-12-01

We analyzed the influence of natural factors, such as temperature, rainfall, vegetation and hydrology, on the spatio-temporal distribution of Oncomelania hupensis and explored the leading factors influencing these parameters. The results will provide reference methods and theoretical a basis for the schistosomiasis control. GIS (Geographic Information System) spatial display and analysis were used to describe the spatio-temporal distribution of Oncomelania hupensis in the study area (Dongting Lake in Hunan Province) from 2004 to 2011. Correlation analysis was used to detect the natural factors associated with the spatio-temporal distribution of O. hupensis. Spatial regression analysis was used to quantitatively analyze the effects of related natural factors on the spatio-temporal distribution of snails and explore the dominant factors influencing this parameter. (1) Overall, the spatio-temporal distribution of O. hupensis was governed by the comprehensive effects of natural factors. In the study area, the average density of living snails showed a downward trend, with the exception of a slight rebound in 2009. The density of living snails showed significant spatial clustering, and the degree of aggregation was initially weak but enhanced later. Regions with high snail density and towns with an HH distribution pattern were mostly distributed in the plain areas in the northwestern and inlet and outlet of the lake. (2) There were space-time differences in the influence of natural factors on the spatio-temporal distribution of O. hupensis. Temporally, the comprehensive influence of natural factors on snail distribution increased first and then decreased. Natural factors played an important role in snail distribution in 2005, 2006, 2010 and 2011. Spatially, it decreased from the northeast to the southwest. Snail distributions in more than 20 towns located along the Yuanshui River and on the west side of the Lishui River were less affected by natural factors, whereas

Spatio-temporal Dynamics of Audiovisual Speech Processing

PubMed Central

Bernstein, Lynne E.; Auer, Edward T.; Wagner, Michael; Ponton, Curtis W.

2007-01-01

The cortical processing of auditory-alone, visual-alone, and audiovisual speech information is temporally and spatially distributed, and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) cannot adequately resolve its temporal dynamics. In order to investigate a hypothesized spatio-temporal organization for audiovisual speech processing circuits, event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded using electroencephalography (EEG). Stimuli were congruent audiovisual /bα/, incongruent auditory /bα/ synchronized with visual /gα/, auditory-only /bα/, and visual-only /bα/ and /gα/. Current density reconstructions (CDRs) of the ERP data were computed across the latency interval of 50-250 milliseconds. The CDRs demonstrated complex spatio-temporal activation patterns that differed across stimulus conditions. The hypothesized circuit that was investigated here comprised initial integration of audiovisual speech by the middle superior temporal sulcus (STS), followed by recruitment of the intraparietal sulcus (IPS), followed by activation of Broca's area (Miller and d'Esposito, 2005). The importance of spatio-temporally sensitive measures in evaluating processing pathways was demonstrated. Results showed, strikingly, early (< 100 msec) and simultaneous activations in areas of the supramarginal and angular gyrus (SMG/AG), the IPS, the inferior frontal gyrus, and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. Also, emergent left hemisphere SMG/AG activation, not predicted based on the unisensory stimulus conditions was observed at approximately 160 to 220 msec. The STS was neither the earliest nor most prominent activation site, although it is frequently considered the sine qua non of audiovisual speech integration. As discussed here, the relatively late activity of the SMG/AG solely under audiovisual conditions is a possible candidate audiovisual speech integration response. PMID:17920933

Spatio-temporal interactions facilitate large carnivore sympatry across a resource gradient.

PubMed

Karanth, K Ullas; Srivathsa, Arjun; Vasudev, Divya; Puri, Mahi; Parameshwaran, Ravishankar; Kumar, N Samba

2017-02-08

Species within a guild vary their use of time, space and resources, thereby enabling sympatry. As intra-guild competition intensifies, such behavioural adaptations may become prominent. We assessed mechanisms of facilitating sympatry among dhole ( Cuon alpinus ), leopard ( Panthera pardus ) and tiger ( Panthera tigris ) in tropical forests of India using camera-trap surveys. We examined population-level temporal, spatial and spatio-temporal segregation among them across four reserves representing a gradient of carnivore and prey densities. Temporal and spatial overlaps were higher at lower prey densities. Combined spatio-temporal overlap was minimal, possibly due to chance. We found fine-scale avoidance behaviours at one high-density reserve. Our results suggest that: (i) patterns of spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal segregation in sympatric carnivores do not necessarily mirror each other; (ii) carnivores are likely to adopt temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal segregation as alternative mechanisms to facilitate sympatry; and (iii) carnivores show adaptability across a gradient of resource availability, a driver of inter-species competition. We discuss behavioural mechanisms that permit carnivores to co-occupy rather than dominate functional niches, and adaptations to varying intensities of competition that are likely to shape structure and dynamics of carnivore guilds. © 2017 The Author(s).

Detecting Spatio-Temporal Modes in Multivariate Data by Entropy Field Decomposition

PubMed Central

Frank, Lawrence R.; Galinsky, Vitaly L.

2016-01-01

A new data analysis method that addresses a general problem of detecting spatio-temporal variations in multivariate data is presented. The method utilizes two recent and complimentary general approaches to data analysis, information field theory (IFT) and entropy spectrum pathways (ESP). Both methods reformulate and incorporate Bayesian theory, thus use prior information to uncover underlying structure of the unknown signal. Unification of ESP and IFT creates an approach that is non-Gaussian and non-linear by construction and is found to produce unique spatio-temporal modes of signal behavior that can be ranked according to their significance, from which space-time trajectories of parameter variations can be constructed and quantified. Two brief examples of real world applications of the theory to the analysis of data bearing completely different, unrelated nature, lacking any underlying similarity, are also presented. The first example provides an analysis of resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rsFMRI) data that allowed us to create an efficient and accurate computational method for assessing and categorizing brain activity. The second example demonstrates the potential of the method in the application to the analysis of a strong atmospheric storm circulation system during the complicated stage of tornado development and formation using data recorded by a mobile Doppler radar. Reference implementation of the method will be made available as a part of the QUEST toolkit that is currently under development at the Center for Scientific Computation in Imaging. PMID:27695512

Detecting spatio-temporal modes in multivariate data by entropy field decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, Lawrence R.; Galinsky, Vitaly L.

2016-09-01

A new data analysis method that addresses a general problem of detecting spatio-temporal variations in multivariate data is presented. The method utilizes two recent and complimentary general approaches to data analysis, information field theory (IFT) and entropy spectrum pathways (ESPs). Both methods reformulate and incorporate Bayesian theory, thus use prior information to uncover underlying structure of the unknown signal. Unification of ESP and IFT creates an approach that is non-Gaussian and nonlinear by construction and is found to produce unique spatio-temporal modes of signal behavior that can be ranked according to their significance, from which space-time trajectories of parameter variations can be constructed and quantified. Two brief examples of real world applications of the theory to the analysis of data bearing completely different, unrelated nature, lacking any underlying similarity, are also presented. The first example provides an analysis of resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging data that allowed us to create an efficient and accurate computational method for assessing and categorizing brain activity. The second example demonstrates the potential of the method in the application to the analysis of a strong atmospheric storm circulation system during the complicated stage of tornado development and formation using data recorded by a mobile Doppler radar. Reference implementation of the method will be made available as a part of the QUEST toolkit that is currently under development at the Center for Scientific Computation in Imaging.

Spatio-Temporal Fluctuations of the Earthquake Magnitude Distribution: Robust Estimation and Predictive Power

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsen, S.; Zaliapin, I.

2008-12-01

We establish positive correlation between the local spatio-temporal fluctuations of the earthquake magnitude distribution and the occurrence of regional earthquakes. In order to accomplish this goal, we develop a sequential Bayesian statistical estimation framework for the b-value (slope of the Gutenberg-Richter's exponential approximation to the observed magnitude distribution) and for the ratio a(t) between the earthquake intensities in two non-overlapping magnitude intervals. The time-dependent dynamics of these parameters is analyzed using Markov Chain Models (MCM). The main advantage of this approach over the traditional window-based estimation is its "soft" parameterization, which allows one to obtain stable results with realistically small samples. We furthermore discuss a statistical methodology for establishing lagged correlations between continuous and point processes. The developed methods are applied to the observed seismicity of California, Nevada, and Japan on different temporal and spatial scales. We report an oscillatory dynamics of the estimated parameters, and find that the detected oscillations are positively correlated with the occurrence of large regional earthquakes, as well as with small events with magnitudes as low as 2.5. The reported results have important implications for further development of earthquake prediction and seismic hazard assessment methods.

Spatio-temporal scaling effects on longshore sediment transport pattern along the nearshore zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khorram, Saeed; Ergil, Mustafa

2018-03-01

A measure of uncertainties, entropy has been employed in such different applications as coastal engineering probability inferences. Entropy sediment transport integration theories present novel visions in coastal analyses/modeling the application and development of which are still far-reaching. Effort has been made in the present paper to propose a method that needs an entropy-power index for spatio-temporal patterns analyses. Results have shown that the index is suitable for marine/hydrological ecosystem components analyses based on a beach area case study. The method makes use of six Makran Coastal monthly data (1970-2015) and studies variables such as spatio-temporal patterns, LSTR (long-shore sediment transport rate), wind speed, and wave height all of which are time-dependent and play considerable roles in terrestrial coastal investigations; the mentioned variables show meaningful spatio-temporal variability most of the time, but explanation of their combined performance is not easy. Accordingly, the use of an entropy-power index can show considerable signals that facilitate the evaluation of water resources and will provide an insight regarding hydrological parameters' interactions at scales as large as beach areas. Results have revealed that an STDDPI (entropy based spatio-temporal disorder dynamics power index) can simulate wave, long-shore sediment transport rate, and wind when granulometry, concentration, and flow conditions vary.

Spatio-temporal evolution of female lung cancer mortality in a region of Spain, is it worth taking migration into account?

PubMed

Zurriaga, Oscar; Vanaclocha, Hermelinda; Martinez-Beneito, Miguel A; Botella-Rocamora, Paloma

2008-01-31

The Comunitat Valenciana (CV) is a tourist region on the Mediterranean coast of Spain with a high rate of retirement migration. Lung cancer in women is the cancer mortality cause that has increased most in the CV during the period 1991 to 2000. Moreover, the geographical distribution of risk from this cause in the CV has been previously described and a non-homogenous pattern was determined. The present paper studies the spatio-temporal distribution of lung cancer mortality for women in the CV during the period 1987-2004, in order to gain some insight into the factors, such as migration, that have had an influence on these changes. A novel methodology, consisting of a Bayesian hierarchical model, is used in this paper. Such a model allows the handling of data with a very high disaggregation, while at the same time taking advantage of its spatial and temporal structure. The spatio-temporal pattern which was found points to geographical differences in the time trends of risk. In fact, the southern coastal side of the CV has had a higher increase in risk, coinciding with the settlement of a large foreign community in that area, mainly comprised of elderly people from the European Union. Migration has frequently been ignored as a risk factor in the description of the geographical risk of lung cancer and it is suggested that this factor should be considered, especially in tourist regions. The temporal component in disease mapping provides a more accurate depiction of risk factors acting on the population.

Spatio-Temporal Process Variability in Watershed Scale Wetland Restoration Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evenson, G. R.

2012-12-01

Watershed scale restoration decision making processes are increasingly informed by quantitative methodologies providing site-specific restoration recommendations - sometimes referred to as "systematic planning." The more advanced of these methodologies are characterized by a coupling of search algorithms and ecological models to discover restoration plans that optimize environmental outcomes. Yet while these methods have exhibited clear utility as decision support toolsets, they may be critiqued for flawed evaluations of spatio-temporally variable processes fundamental to watershed scale restoration. Hydrologic and non-hydrologic mediated process connectivity along with post-restoration habitat dynamics, for example, are commonly ignored yet known to appreciably affect restoration outcomes. This talk will present a methodology to evaluate such spatio-temporally complex processes in the production of watershed scale wetland restoration plans. Using the Tuscarawas Watershed in Eastern Ohio as a case study, a genetic algorithm will be coupled with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to reveal optimal wetland restoration plans as measured by their capacity to maximize nutrient reductions. Then, a so-called "graphical" representation of the optimization problem will be implemented in-parallel to promote hydrologic and non-hydrologic mediated connectivity amongst existing wetlands and sites selected for restoration. Further, various search algorithm mechanisms will be discussed as a means of accounting for temporal complexities such as post-restoration habitat dynamics. Finally, generalized patterns of restoration plan optimality will be discussed as an alternative and possibly superior decision support toolset given the complexity and stochastic nature of spatio-temporal process variability.

What calls for service tell us about suicide: A 7-year spatio-temporal analysis of neighborhood correlates of suicide-related calls.

PubMed

Marco, Miriam; Gracia, Enrique; López-Quílez, Antonio; Lila, Marisol

2018-04-30

Previous research has shown that neighborhood-level variables such as social deprivation, social fragmentation or rurality are related to suicide risk, but most of these studies have been conducted in the U.S. or northern European countries. The aim of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of suicide in a southern European city (Valencia, Spain), and determine whether this distribution was related to a set of neighborhood-level characteristics. We used suicide-related calls for service as an indicator of suicide cases (n = 6,537), and analyzed the relationship of the outcome variable with several neighborhood-level variables: economic status, education level, population density, residential instability, one-person households, immigrant concentration, and population aging. A Bayesian autoregressive model was used to study the spatio-temporal distribution at the census block group level for a 7-year period (2010-2016). Results showed that neighborhoods with lower levels of education and population density, and higher levels of residential instability, one-person households, and an aging population had higher levels of suicide-related calls for service. Immigrant concentration and economic status did not make a relevant contribution to the model. These results could help to develop better-targeted community-level suicide prevention strategies.

Calibration of a parsimonious distributed ecohydrological daily model in a data-scarce basin by exclusively using the spatio-temporal variation of NDVI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Pérez, Guiomar; Koch, Julian; Manfreda, Salvatore; Caylor, Kelly; Francés, Félix

2017-12-01

Ecohydrological modeling studies in developing countries, such as sub-Saharan Africa, often face the problem of extensive parametrical requirements and limited available data. Satellite remote sensing data may be able to fill this gap, but require novel methodologies to exploit their spatio-temporal information that could potentially be incorporated into model calibration and validation frameworks. The present study tackles this problem by suggesting an automatic calibration procedure, based on the empirical orthogonal function, for distributed ecohydrological daily models. The procedure is tested with the support of remote sensing data in a data-scarce environment - the upper Ewaso Ngiro river basin in Kenya. In the present application, the TETIS-VEG model is calibrated using only NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data derived from MODIS. The results demonstrate that (1) satellite data of vegetation dynamics can be used to calibrate and validate ecohydrological models in water-controlled and data-scarce regions, (2) the model calibrated using only satellite data is able to reproduce both the spatio-temporal vegetation dynamics and the observed discharge at the outlet and (3) the proposed automatic calibration methodology works satisfactorily and it allows for a straightforward incorporation of spatio-temporal data into the calibration and validation framework of a model.

Research on target tracking algorithm based on spatio-temporal context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Baiping; Xu, Sanmei; Kang, Hongjuan

2017-07-01

In this paper, a novel target tracking algorithm based on spatio-temporal context is proposed. During the tracking process, the camera shaking or occlusion may lead to the failure of tracking. The proposed algorithm can solve this problem effectively. The method use the spatio-temporal context algorithm as the main research object. We get the first frame's target region via mouse. Then the spatio-temporal context algorithm is used to get the tracking targets of the sequence of frames. During this process a similarity measure function based on perceptual hash algorithm is used to judge the tracking results. If tracking failed, reset the initial value of Mean Shift algorithm for the subsequent target tracking. Experiment results show that the proposed algorithm can achieve real-time and stable tracking when camera shaking or target occlusion.

Multivariate spatio-temporal modelling for assessing Antarctica's present-day contribution to sea-level rise

PubMed Central

Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Schön, Nana; Lindgren, Finn; Bamber, Jonathan

2015-01-01

Antarctica is the world's largest fresh-water reservoir, with the potential to raise sea levels by about 60 m. An ice sheet contributes to sea-level rise (SLR) when its rate of ice discharge and/or surface melting exceeds accumulation through snowfall. Constraining the contribution of the ice sheets to present-day SLR is vital both for coastal development and planning, and climate projections. Information on various ice sheet processes is available from several remote sensing data sets, as well as in situ data such as global positioning system data. These data have differing coverage, spatial support, temporal sampling and sensing characteristics, and thus, it is advantageous to combine them all in a single framework for estimation of the SLR contribution and the assessment of processes controlling mass exchange with the ocean. In this paper, we predict the rate of height change due to salient geophysical processes in Antarctica and use these to provide estimates of SLR contribution with associated uncertainties. We employ a multivariate spatio-temporal model, approximated as a Gaussian Markov random field, to take advantage of differing spatio-temporal properties of the processes to separate the causes of the observed change. The process parameters are estimated from geophysical models, while the remaining parameters are estimated using a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme, designed to operate in a high-performance computing environment across multiple nodes. We validate our methods against a separate data set and compare the results to those from studies that invariably employ numerical model outputs directly. We conclude that it is possible, and insightful, to assess Antarctica's contribution without explicit use of numerical models. Further, the results obtained here can be used to test the geophysical numerical models for which in situ data are hard to obtain. © 2015 The Authors. Environmetrics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:25937792

Using spatio-temporal modeling to predict long-term exposure to black smoke at fine spatial and temporal scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dadvand, Payam; Rushton, Stephen; Diggle, Peter J.; Goffe, Louis; Rankin, Judith; Pless-Mulloli, Tanja

2011-01-01

Whilst exposure to air pollution is linked to a wide range of adverse health outcomes, assessing levels of this exposure has remained a challenge. This study reports a modeling approach for the estimation of weekly levels of ambient black smoke (BS) at residential postcodes across Northeast England (2055 km 2) over a 12 year period (1985-1996). A two-stage modeling strategy was developed using monitoring data on BS together with a range of covariates including data on traffic, population density, industrial activity, land cover (remote sensing), and meteorology. The first stage separates the temporal trend in BS for the region as a whole from within-region spatial variation and the second stage is a linear model which predicts BS levels at all locations in the region using spatially referenced covariate data as predictors and the regional predicted temporal trend as an offset. Traffic and land cover predictors were included in the final model, which predicted 70% of the spatio-temporal variation in BS across the study region over the study period. This modeling approach appears to provide a robust way of estimating exposure to BS at an inter-urban scale.

Spatio-temporal models to determine association between Campylobacter cases and environment

PubMed Central

Sanderson, Roy A; Maas, James A; Blain, Alasdair P; Gorton, Russell; Ward, Jessica; O’Brien, Sarah J; Hunter, Paul R; Rushton, Stephen P

2018-01-01

Abstract Background Campylobacteriosis is a major cause of gastroenteritis in the UK, and although 70% of cases are associated with food sources, the remainder are probably associated with wider environmental exposure. Methods In order to investigate wider environmental transmission, we conducted a spatio-temporal analysis of the association of human cases of Campylobacter in the Tyne catchment with weather, climate, hydrology and land use. A hydrological model was used to predict surface-water flow in the Tyne catchment over 5 years. We analysed associations between population-adjusted Campylobacter case rate and environmental factors hypothesized to be important in disease using a two-stage modelling framework. First, we investigated associations between temporal variation in case rate in relation to surface-water flow, temperature, evapotranspiration and rainfall, using linear mixed-effects models. Second, we used the random effects for the first model to quantify how spatial variation in static landscape features of soil and land use impacted on the likely differences between subcatchment associations of case rate with the temporal variables. Results Population-adjusted Campylobacter case rates were associated with periods of high predicted surface-water flow, and during above average temperatures. Subcatchments with cattle on stagnogley soils, and to a lesser extent sheep plus cattle grazing, had higher Campylobacter case rates. Conclusions Areas of stagnogley soils with mixed livestock grazing may be more vulnerable to both Campylobacter spread and exposure during periods of high rainfall, with resultant increased risk of human cases of the disease. PMID:29069406

Spatio-temporal error growth in the multi-scale Lorenz'96 model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrera, S.; Fernández, J.; Rodríguez, M. A.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

2010-07-01

The influence of multiple spatio-temporal scales on the error growth and predictability of atmospheric flows is analyzed throughout the paper. To this aim, we consider the two-scale Lorenz'96 model and study the interplay of the slow and fast variables on the error growth dynamics. It is shown that when the coupling between slow and fast variables is weak the slow variables dominate the evolution of fluctuations whereas in the case of strong coupling the fast variables impose a non-trivial complex error growth pattern on the slow variables with two different regimes, before and after saturation of fast variables. This complex behavior is analyzed using the recently introduced Mean-Variance Logarithmic (MVL) diagram.

Spatio-temporal observations of tertiary ozone maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofieva, V. F.; Kyrölä, E.; Verronen, P. T.; Seppälä, A.; Tamminen, J.; Marsh, D. R.; Smith, A. K.; Bertaux, J.-L.; Hauchecorne, A.; Dalaudier, F.; Fussen, D.; Vanhellemont, F.; Fanton D'Andon, O.; Barrot, G.; Guirlet, M.; Fehr, T.; Saavedra, L.

2009-03-01

We present spatio-temporal distributions of tertiary ozone maximum (TOM), based on GOMOS (Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars) ozone measurements in 2002-2006. The tertiary ozone maximum is typically observed in the high-latitude winter mesosphere at altitude ~72 km. Although the explanation for this phenomenon has been found recently - low concentrations of odd-hydrogen cause the subsequent decrease in odd-oxygen losses - models have had significant deviations from existing observations until recently. Good coverage of polar night regions by GOMOS data has allowed for the first time obtaining spatial and temporal observational distributions of night-time ozone mixing ratio in the mesosphere. The distributions obtained from GOMOS data have specific features, which are variable from year to year. In particular, due to a long lifetime of ozone in polar night conditions, the downward transport of polar air by the meridional circulation is clearly observed in the tertiary ozone maximum time series. Although the maximum tertiary ozone mixing ratio is achieved close to the polar night terminator (as predicted by the theory), TOM can be observed also at very high latitudes, not only in the beginning and at the end, but also in the middle of winter. We have compared the observational spatio-temporal distributions of tertiary ozone maximum with that obtained using WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) and found that the specific features are reproduced satisfactorily by the model. Since ozone in the mesosphere is very sensitive to HOx concentrations, energetic particle precipitation can significantly modify the shape of the ozone profiles. In particular, GOMOS observations have shown that the tertiary ozone maximum was temporarily destroyed during the January 2005 and December 2006 solar proton events as a result of the HOx enhancement from the increased ionization.

Spatio-temporal Variability of Albedo and its Impact on Glacier Melt Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinnard, C.; Mendoza, C.; Abermann, J.; Petlicki, M.; MacDonell, S.; Urrutia, R.

2017-12-01

Albedo is an important variable for the surface energy balance of glaciers, yet its representation within distributed glacier mass-balance models is often greatly simplified. Here we study the spatio-temporal evolution of albedo on Glacier Universidad, central Chile (34°S, 70°W), using time-lapse terrestrial photography, and investigate its effect on the shortwave radiation balance and modelled melt rates. A 12 megapixel digital single-lens reflex camera was setup overlooking the glacier and programmed to take three daily images of the glacier during a two-year period (2012-2014). One image was chosen for each day with no cloud shading on the glacier. The RAW images were projected onto a 10m resolution digital elevation model (DEM), using the IMGRAFT software (Messerli and Grinsted, 2015). A six-parameter camera model was calibrated using a single image and a set of 17 ground control points (GCPs), yielding a georeferencing accuracy of <1 pixel in image coordinates. The camera rotation was recalibrated for new images based on a set of common tie points over stable terrain, thus accounting for possible camera movement over time. The reflectance values from the projected image were corrected for topographic and atmospheric influences using a parametric solar irradiation model, following a modified algorithm based on Corripio (2004), and then converted to albedo using reference albedo measurements from an on-glacier automatic weather station (AWS). The image-based albedo was found to compare well with independent albedo observations from a second AWS in the glacier accumulation area. Analysis of the albedo maps showed that the albedo is more spatially-variable than the incoming solar radiation, making albedo a more important factor of energy balance spatial variability. The incorporation of albedo maps within an enhanced temperature index melt model revealed that the spatio-temporal variability of albedo is an important factor for the calculation of glacier

Finding Spatio-Temporal Patterns in Large Sensor Datasets

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGuire, Michael Patrick

2010-01-01

Spatial or temporal data mining tasks are performed in the context of the relevant space, defined by a spatial neighborhood, and the relevant time period, defined by a specific time interval. Furthermore, when mining large spatio-temporal datasets, interesting patterns typically emerge where the dataset is most dynamic. This dissertation is…

Learning of spatio-temporal codes in a coupled oscillator system.

PubMed

Orosz, Gábor; Ashwin, Peter; Townley, Stuart

2009-07-01

In this paper, we consider a learning strategy that allows one to transmit information between two coupled phase oscillator systems (called teaching and learning systems) via frequency adaptation. The dynamics of these systems can be modeled with reference to a number of partially synchronized cluster states and transitions between them. Forcing the teaching system by steady but spatially nonhomogeneous inputs produces cyclic sequences of transitions between the cluster states, that is, information about inputs is encoded via a "winnerless competition" process into spatio-temporal codes. The large variety of codes can be learned by the learning system that adapts its frequencies to those of the teaching system. We visualize the dynamics using "weighted order parameters (WOPs)" that are analogous to "local field potentials" in neural systems. Since spatio-temporal coding is a mechanism that appears in olfactory systems, the developed learning rules may help to extract information from these neural ensembles.

Interocular suppression in normal and amblyopic vision: spatio-temporal properties.

PubMed

Huang, Pi-Chun; Baker, Daniel H; Hess, Robert F

2012-10-31

We measured the properties of interocular suppression in strabismic amblyopes and compared these to dichoptic masking in binocularly normal observers. We used a dichoptic version of the well-established probed-sinewave paradigm that measured sensitivity to a brief target stimulus (one of four letters to be discriminated) in the amblyopic eye at different times relative to a suppression-inducing mask in the fixing eye. This was done using both sinusoidal steady state and transient approaches. The suppression-inducing masks were either modulations of luminance or contrast (full field, just overlaying the target, or just surrounding the target). Our results were interpreted using a descriptive model that included contrast gain control and spatio-temporal filtering prior to excitatory binocular combination. The suppression we measured, other than in magnitude, was not fundamentally different from normal dichoptic masking: lowpass spatio-temporal properties with similar contributions from both surround and overlay suppression.

Effects of climate change adaptation scenarios on perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidal, J.-P.; Martin, E.; Kitova, N.; Najac, J.; Soubeyroux, J.-M.

2012-04-01

Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, like mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This study addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1) Are downscaled climate projections able to reproduce spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2) How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century under different emissions scenarios? (3) How would perceived drought characteristics evolve under theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-year multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France (Vidal et al., 2010). Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI), respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well reproduced by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century under all considered emissions scenarios, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals. The two scenarios differ by the way the transient adaptation is performed for a given date in the future, with reference to the normals over either the previous 30-year window ("retrospective

Hiereachical Bayesian Model for Combining Geochemical and Geophysical Data for Environmental Applications Software

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Jinsong

2013-05-01

Development of a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of aqueous geochemical parameters associated with in-situ bioremediation using surface spectral induced polarization (SIP) data and borehole geochemical measurements collected during a bioremediation experiment at a uranium-contaminated site near Rifle, Colorado. The SIP data are first inverted for Cole-Cole parameters including chargeability, time constant, resistivity at the DC frequency and dependence factor, at each pixel of two-dimensional grids using a previously developed stochastic method. Correlations between the inverted Cole-Cole parameters and the wellbore-based groundwater chemistry measurements indicative of key metabolic processes within the aquifer (e.g. ferrous iron, sulfate, uranium)more » were established and used as a basis for petrophysical model development. The developed Bayesian model consists of three levels of statistical sub-models: 1) data model, providing links between geochemical and geophysical attributes, 2) process model, describing the spatial and temporal variability of geochemical properties in the subsurface system, and 3) parameter model, describing prior distributions of various parameters and initial conditions. The unknown parameters are estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. By combining the temporally distributed geochemical data with the spatially distributed geophysical data, we obtain the spatio-temporal distribution of ferrous iron, sulfate and sulfide, and their associated uncertainity information. The obtained results can be used to assess the efficacy of the bioremediation treatment over space and time and to constrain reactive transport models.« less

Bayesian median regression for temporal gene expression data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Keming; Vinciotti, Veronica; Liu, Xiaohui; 't Hoen, Peter A. C.

2007-09-01

Most of the existing methods for the identification of biologically interesting genes in a temporal expression profiling dataset do not fully exploit the temporal ordering in the dataset and are based on normality assumptions for the gene expression. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian median regression model to detect genes whose temporal profile is significantly different across a number of biological conditions. The regression model is defined by a polynomial function where both time and condition effects as well as interactions between the two are included. MCMC-based inference returns the posterior distribution of the polynomial coefficients. From this a simple Bayes factor test is proposed to test for significance. The estimation of the median rather than the mean, and within a Bayesian framework, increases the robustness of the method compared to a Hotelling T2-test previously suggested. This is shown on simulated data and on muscular dystrophy gene expression data.

Dynamical Properties of Transient Spatio-Temporal Patterns in Bacterial Colony of Proteus mirabilis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, Kazuhiko; Wakita, Jun-ichi; Itoh, Hiroto; Shimada, Hirotoshi; Kurosu, Sayuri; Ikeda, Takemasa; Yamazaki, Yoshihiro; Matsuyama, Tohey; Matsushita, Mitsugu

2002-02-01

Spatio-temporal patterns emerged inside a colony of bacterial species Proteus mirabilis on the surface of nutrient-rich semisolid agar medium have been investigated. We observed various patterns composed of the following basic types: propagating stripe, propagating stripe with fixed dislocation, expanding and shrinking target, and rotating spiral. The remarkable point is that the pattern changes immediately when we alter the position for observation, but it returns to the original if we restore the observing position within a few minutes. We further investigated mesoscopic and microscopic properties of the spatio-temporal patterns. It turned out that whenever the spatio-temporal patterns are observed in a colony, the areas are composed of two superimposed monolayers of elongated bacterial cells. In each area they are aligned almost parallel with each other like a two-dimensional nematic liquid crystal, and move collectively and independently of another layer. It has been found that the observed spatio-temporal patterns are explained as the moiré effect.

Spatio-temporal observations of the tertiary ozone maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofieva, V. F.; Kyrölä, E.; Verronen, P. T.; Seppälä, A.; Tamminen, J.; Marsh, D. R.; Smith, A. K.; Bertaux, J.-L.; Hauchecorne, A.; Dalaudier, F.; Fussen, D.; Vanhellemont, F.; Fanton D'Andon, O.; Barrot, G.; Guirlet, M.; Fehr, T.; Saavedra, L.

2009-07-01

We present spatio-temporal distributions of the tertiary ozone maximum (TOM), based on GOMOS (Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars) ozone measurements in 2002-2006. The tertiary ozone maximum is typically observed in the high-latitude winter mesosphere at an altitude of ~72 km. Although the explanation for this phenomenon has been found recently - low concentrations of odd-hydrogen cause the subsequent decrease in odd-oxygen losses - models have had significant deviations from existing observations until recently. Good coverage of polar night regions by GOMOS data has allowed for the first time to obtain spatial and temporal observational distributions of night-time ozone mixing ratio in the mesosphere. The distributions obtained from GOMOS data have specific features, which are variable from year to year. In particular, due to a long lifetime of ozone in polar night conditions, the downward transport of polar air by the meridional circulation is clearly observed in the tertiary ozone maximum time series. Although the maximum tertiary ozone mixing ratio is achieved close to the polar night terminator (as predicted by the theory), TOM can be observed also at very high latitudes, not only in the beginning and at the end, but also in the middle of winter. We have compared the observational spatio-temporal distributions of the tertiary ozone maximum with that obtained using WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) and found that the specific features are reproduced satisfactorily by the model. Since ozone in the mesosphere is very sensitive to HOx concentrations, energetic particle precipitation can significantly modify the shape of the ozone profiles. In particular, GOMOS observations have shown that the tertiary ozone maximum was temporarily destroyed during the January 2005 and December 2006 solar proton events as a result of the HOx enhancement from the increased ionization.

Joint level-set and spatio-temporal motion detection for cell segmentation.

PubMed

Boukari, Fatima; Makrogiannis, Sokratis

2016-08-10

Cell segmentation is a critical step for quantification and monitoring of cell cycle progression, cell migration, and growth control to investigate cellular immune response, embryonic development, tumorigenesis, and drug effects on live cells in time-lapse microscopy images. In this study, we propose a joint spatio-temporal diffusion and region-based level-set optimization approach for moving cell segmentation. Moving regions are initially detected in each set of three consecutive sequence images by numerically solving a system of coupled spatio-temporal partial differential equations. In order to standardize intensities of each frame, we apply a histogram transformation approach to match the pixel intensities of each processed frame with an intensity distribution model learned from all frames of the sequence during the training stage. After the spatio-temporal diffusion stage is completed, we compute the edge map by nonparametric density estimation using Parzen kernels. This process is followed by watershed-based segmentation and moving cell detection. We use this result as an initial level-set function to evolve the cell boundaries, refine the delineation, and optimize the final segmentation result. We applied this method to several datasets of fluorescence microscopy images with varying levels of difficulty with respect to cell density, resolution, contrast, and signal-to-noise ratio. We compared the results with those produced by Chan and Vese segmentation, a temporally linked level-set technique, and nonlinear diffusion-based segmentation. We validated all segmentation techniques against reference masks provided by the international Cell Tracking Challenge consortium. The proposed approach delineated cells with an average Dice similarity coefficient of 89 % over a variety of simulated and real fluorescent image sequences. It yielded average improvements of 11 % in segmentation accuracy compared to both strictly spatial and temporally linked Chan

Discrete simulations of spatio-temporal dynamics of small water bodies under varied stream flow discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daya Sagar, B. S.

2005-01-01

Spatio-temporal patterns of small water bodies (SWBs) under the influence of temporally varied stream flow discharge are simulated in discrete space by employing geomorphologically realistic expansion and contraction transformations. Cascades of expansion-contraction are systematically performed by synchronizing them with stream flow discharge simulated via the logistic map. Templates with definite characteristic information are defined from stream flow discharge pattern as the basis to model the spatio-temporal organization of randomly situated surface water bodies of various sizes and shapes. These spatio-temporal patterns under varied parameters (λs) controlling stream flow discharge patterns are characterized by estimating their fractal dimensions. At various λs, nonlinear control parameters, we show the union of boundaries of water bodies that traverse the water body and non-water body spaces as geomorphic attractors. The computed fractal dimensions of these attractors are 1.58, 1.53, 1.78, 1.76, 1.84, and 1.90, respectively, at λs of 1, 2, 3, 3.46, 3.57, and 3.99. These values are in line with general visual observations.

Spatio-temporal water quality mapping from satellite images using geographically and temporally weighted regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Hone-Jay; Kong, Shish-Jeng; Chang, Chih-Hua

2018-03-01

The turbidity (TB) of a water body varies with time and space. Water quality is traditionally estimated via linear regression based on satellite images. However, estimating and mapping water quality require a spatio-temporal nonstationary model, while TB mapping necessitates the use of geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models, both of which are more precise than linear regression. Given the temporal nonstationary models for mapping water quality, GTWR offers the best option for estimating regional water quality. Compared with GWR, GTWR provides highly reliable information for water quality mapping, boasts a relatively high goodness of fit, improves the explanation of variance from 44% to 87%, and shows a sufficient space-time explanatory power. The seasonal patterns of TB and the main spatial patterns of TB variability can be identified using the estimated TB maps from GTWR and by conducting an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis.

A Novel Method to Verify Multilevel Computational Models of Biological Systems Using Multiscale Spatio-Temporal Meta Model Checking.

PubMed

Pârvu, Ovidiu; Gilbert, David

2016-01-01

Insights gained from multilevel computational models of biological systems can be translated into real-life applications only if the model correctness has been verified first. One of the most frequently employed in silico techniques for computational model verification is model checking. Traditional model checking approaches only consider the evolution of numeric values, such as concentrations, over time and are appropriate for computational models of small scale systems (e.g. intracellular networks). However for gaining a systems level understanding of how biological organisms function it is essential to consider more complex large scale biological systems (e.g. organs). Verifying computational models of such systems requires capturing both how numeric values and properties of (emergent) spatial structures (e.g. area of multicellular population) change over time and across multiple levels of organization, which are not considered by existing model checking approaches. To address this limitation we have developed a novel approximate probabilistic multiscale spatio-temporal meta model checking methodology for verifying multilevel computational models relative to specifications describing the desired/expected system behaviour. The methodology is generic and supports computational models encoded using various high-level modelling formalisms because it is defined relative to time series data and not the models used to generate it. In addition, the methodology can be automatically adapted to case study specific types of spatial structures and properties using the spatio-temporal meta model checking concept. To automate the computational model verification process we have implemented the model checking approach in the software tool Mule (http://mule.modelchecking.org). Its applicability is illustrated against four systems biology computational models previously published in the literature encoding the rat cardiovascular system dynamics, the uterine contractions of labour

Discovery of spatio-temporal patterns from location-based social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Béjar, J.; Álvarez, S.; García, D.; Gómez, I.; Oliva, L.; Tejeda, A.; Vázquez-Salceda, J.

2016-03-01

Location-based social networks (LBSNs) such as Twitter or Instagram are a good source for user spatio-temporal behaviour. These networks collect data from users in such a way that they can be seen as a set of collective and distributed sensors of a geographical area. A low rate sampling of user's location information can be obtained during large intervals of time that can be used to discover complex patterns, including mobility profiles, points of interest or unusual events. These patterns can be used as the elements of a knowledge base for different applications in different domains such as mobility route planning, touristic recommendation systems or city planning. The aim of this paper is twofold, first to analyse the frequent spatio-temporal patterns that users share when living and visiting a city. This behaviour is studied by means of frequent itemsets algorithms in order to establish some associations among visits that can be interpreted as interesting routes or spatio-temporal connections. Second, to analyse how the spatio-temporal behaviour of a large number of users can be segmented in different profiles. These behavioural profiles are obtained by means of clustering algorithms that show the different patterns of behaviour of visitors and citizens. The data analysed were obtained from the public data feeds of Twitter and Instagram within an area surrounding the cities of Barcelona and Milan for a period of several months. The analysis of these data shows that these kinds of algorithms can be successfully applied to data from any city (or general area) to discover useful patterns that can be interpreted on terms of singular places and areas and their temporal relationships.

Real-Time Spatio-Temporal Twice Whitening for MIMO Energy Detector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Humble, Travis S; Mitra, Pramita; Barhen, Jacob

2010-01-01

While many techniques exist for local spectrum sensing of a primary user, each represents a computationally demanding task to secondary user receivers. In software-defined radio, computational complexity lengthens the time for a cognitive radio to recognize changes in the transmission environment. This complexity is even more significant for spatially multiplexed receivers, e.g., in SIMO and MIMO, where the spatio-temporal data sets grow in size with the number of antennae. Limits on power and space for the processor hardware further constrain SDR performance. In this report, we discuss improvements in spatio-temporal twice whitening (STTW) for real-time local spectrum sensing by demonstratingmore » a form of STTW well suited for MIMO environments. We implement STTW on the Coherent Logix hx3100 processor, a multicore processor intended for low-power, high-throughput software-defined signal processing. These results demonstrate how coupling the novel capabilities of emerging multicore processors with algorithmic advances can enable real-time, software-defined processing of large spatio-temporal data sets.« less

A rigorous statistical framework for spatio-temporal pollution prediction and estimation of its long-term impact on health.

PubMed

Lee, Duncan; Mukhopadhyay, Sabyasachi; Rushworth, Alastair; Sahu, Sujit K

2017-04-01

In the United Kingdom, air pollution is linked to around 40000 premature deaths each year, but estimating its health effects is challenging in a spatio-temporal study. The challenges include spatial misalignment between the pollution and disease data; uncertainty in the estimated pollution surface; and complex residual spatio-temporal autocorrelation in the disease data. This article develops a two-stage model that addresses these issues. The first stage is a spatio-temporal fusion model linking modeled and measured pollution data, while the second stage links these predictions to the disease data. The methodology is motivated by a new five-year study investigating the effects of multiple pollutants on respiratory hospitalizations in England between 2007 and 2011, using pollution and disease data relating to local and unitary authorities on a monthly time scale. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Spatiotemporal multivariate mixture models for Bayesian model selection in disease mapping.

PubMed

Lawson, A B; Carroll, R; Faes, C; Kirby, R S; Aregay, M; Watjou, K

2017-12-01

It is often the case that researchers wish to simultaneously explore the behavior of and estimate overall risk for multiple, related diseases with varying rarity while accounting for potential spatial and/or temporal correlation. In this paper, we propose a flexible class of multivariate spatio-temporal mixture models to fill this role. Further, these models offer flexibility with the potential for model selection as well as the ability to accommodate lifestyle, socio-economic, and physical environmental variables with spatial, temporal, or both structures. Here, we explore the capability of this approach via a large scale simulation study and examine a motivating data example involving three cancers in South Carolina. The results which are focused on four model variants suggest that all models possess the ability to recover simulation ground truth and display improved model fit over two baseline Knorr-Held spatio-temporal interaction model variants in a real data application.

Agent-based modeling of autophagy reveals emergent regulatory behavior of spatio-temporal autophagy dynamics.

PubMed

Börlin, Christoph S; Lang, Verena; Hamacher-Brady, Anne; Brady, Nathan R

2014-09-10

Autophagy is a vesicle-mediated pathway for lysosomal degradation, essential under basal and stressed conditions. Various cellular components, including specific proteins, protein aggregates, organelles and intracellular pathogens, are targets for autophagic degradation. Thereby, autophagy controls numerous vital physiological and pathophysiological functions, including cell signaling, differentiation, turnover of cellular components and pathogen defense. Moreover, autophagy enables the cell to recycle cellular components to metabolic substrates, thereby permitting prolonged survival under low nutrient conditions. Due to the multi-faceted roles for autophagy in maintaining cellular and organismal homeostasis and responding to diverse stresses, malfunction of autophagy contributes to both chronic and acute pathologies. We applied a systems biology approach to improve the understanding of this complex cellular process of autophagy. All autophagy pathway vesicle activities, i.e. creation, movement, fusion and degradation, are highly dynamic, temporally and spatially, and under various forms of regulation. We therefore developed an agent-based model (ABM) to represent individual components of the autophagy pathway, subcellular vesicle dynamics and metabolic feedback with the cellular environment, thereby providing a framework to investigate spatio-temporal aspects of autophagy regulation and dynamic behavior. The rules defining our ABM were derived from literature and from high-resolution images of autophagy markers under basal and activated conditions. Key model parameters were fit with an iterative method using a genetic algorithm and a predefined fitness function. From this approach, we found that accurate prediction of spatio-temporal behavior required increasing model complexity by implementing functional integration of autophagy with the cellular nutrient state. The resulting model is able to reproduce short-term autophagic flux measurements (up to 3�

Predictability of spatio-temporal patterns in a lattice of coupled FitzHugh–Nagumo oscillators

PubMed Central

Grace, Miriam; Hütt, Marc-Thorsten

2013-01-01

In many biological systems, variability of the components can be expected to outrank statistical fluctuations in the shaping of self-organized patterns. In pioneering work in the late 1990s, it was hypothesized that a drift of cellular parameters (along a ‘developmental path’), together with differences in cell properties (‘desynchronization’ of cells on the developmental path) can establish self-organized spatio-temporal patterns (in their example, spiral waves of cAMP in a colony of Dictyostelium discoideum cells) starting from a homogeneous state. Here, we embed a generic model of an excitable medium, a lattice of diffusively coupled FitzHugh–Nagumo oscillators, into a developmental-path framework. In this minimal model of spiral wave generation, we can now study the predictability of spatio-temporal patterns from cell properties as a function of desynchronization (or ‘spread’) of cells along the developmental path and the drift speed of cell properties on the path. As a function of drift speed and desynchronization, we observe systematically different routes towards fully established patterns, as well as strikingly different correlations between cell properties and pattern features. We show that the predictability of spatio-temporal patterns from cell properties contains important information on the pattern formation process as well as on the underlying dynamical system. PMID:23349439

Hydrodynamic Model of Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Two-Plasmon Decay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dimitrijevic, D. R.; Maluckov, A. A.

A hydrodynamic model of two-plasmon decay in a homogeneous plasma slab near the quarter-critical density is constructed in order to gain better insight into the spatio-temporal evolution of the daughter electron plasma waves in plasma in the course of the instability. The influence of laser and plasma parameters on the evolution of the amplitudes of the participating waves is discussed. The secondary coupling of two daughter electron plasma waves with an ion-acoustic wave is assumed to be the principal mechanism of saturation of the instability. The impact of the inherently nonresonant nature of this secondary coupling on the development ofmore » TPD is investigated and it is shown to significantly influence the electron plasma wave dynamics. Its inclusion leads to nonuniformity of the spatial profile of the instability and causes the burst-like pattern of the instability development, which should result in the burst-like hot-electron production in homogeneous plasma.« less

Spatio-temporal Granger causality: a new framework

PubMed Central

Luo, Qiang; Lu, Wenlian; Cheng, Wei; Valdes-Sosa, Pedro A.; Wen, Xiaotong; Ding, Mingzhou; Feng, Jianfeng

2015-01-01

That physiological oscillations of various frequencies are present in fMRI signals is the rule, not the exception. Herein, we propose a novel theoretical framework, spatio-temporal Granger causality, which allows us to more reliably and precisely estimate the Granger causality from experimental datasets possessing time-varying properties caused by physiological oscillations. Within this framework, Granger causality is redefined as a global index measuring the directed information flow between two time series with time-varying properties. Both theoretical analyses and numerical examples demonstrate that Granger causality is a monotonically increasing function of the temporal resolution used in the estimation. This is consistent with the general principle of coarse graining, which causes information loss by smoothing out very fine-scale details in time and space. Our results confirm that the Granger causality at the finer spatio-temporal scales considerably outperforms the traditional approach in terms of an improved consistency between two resting-state scans of the same subject. To optimally estimate the Granger causality, the proposed theoretical framework is implemented through a combination of several approaches, such as dividing the optimal time window and estimating the parameters at the fine temporal and spatial scales. Taken together, our approach provides a novel and robust framework for estimating the Granger causality from fMRI, EEG, and other related data. PMID:23643924

Earthquake Clusters and Spatio-temporal Migration of earthquakes in Northeastern Tibetan Plateau: a Finite Element Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Y.; Luo, G.

2017-12-01

Seismicity in a region is usually characterized by earthquake clusters and earthquake migration along its major fault zones. However, we do not fully understand why and how earthquake clusters and spatio-temporal migration of earthquakes occur. The northeastern Tibetan Plateau is a good example for us to investigate these problems. In this study, we construct and use a three-dimensional viscoelastoplastic finite-element model to simulate earthquake cycles and spatio-temporal migration of earthquakes along major fault zones in northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We calculate stress evolution and fault interactions, and explore effects of topographic loading and viscosity of middle-lower crust and upper mantle on model results. Model results show that earthquakes and fault interactions increase Coulomb stress on the neighboring faults or segments, accelerating the future earthquakes in this region. Thus, earthquakes occur sequentially in a short time, leading to regional earthquake clusters. Through long-term evolution, stresses on some seismogenic faults, which are far apart, may almost simultaneously reach the critical state of fault failure, probably also leading to regional earthquake clusters and earthquake migration. Based on our model synthetic seismic catalog and paleoseismic data, we analyze probability of earthquake migration between major faults in northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We find that following the 1920 M 8.5 Haiyuan earthquake and the 1927 M 8.0 Gulang earthquake, the next big event (M≥7) in northeastern Tibetan Plateau would be most likely to occur on the Haiyuan fault.

A bio-inspired system for spatio-temporal recognition in static and video imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khosla, Deepak; Moore, Christopher K.; Chelian, Suhas

2007-04-01

This paper presents a bio-inspired method for spatio-temporal recognition in static and video imagery. It builds upon and extends our previous work on a bio-inspired Visual Attention and object Recognition System (VARS). The VARS approach locates and recognizes objects in a single frame. This work presents two extensions of VARS. The first extension is a Scene Recognition Engine (SCE) that learns to recognize spatial relationships between objects that compose a particular scene category in static imagery. This could be used for recognizing the category of a scene, e.g., office vs. kitchen scene. The second extension is the Event Recognition Engine (ERE) that recognizes spatio-temporal sequences or events in sequences. This extension uses a working memory model to recognize events and behaviors in video imagery by maintaining and recognizing ordered spatio-temporal sequences. The working memory model is based on an ARTSTORE1 neural network that combines an ART-based neural network with a cascade of sustained temporal order recurrent (STORE)1 neural networks. A series of Default ARTMAP classifiers ascribes event labels to these sequences. Our preliminary studies have shown that this extension is robust to variations in an object's motion profile. We evaluated the performance of the SCE and ERE on real datasets. The SCE module was tested on a visual scene classification task using the LabelMe2 dataset. The ERE was tested on real world video footage of vehicles and pedestrians in a street scene. Our system is able to recognize the events in this footage involving vehicles and pedestrians.

Spatio-Temporal Regression Based Clustering of Precipitation Extremes in a Presence of Systematically Missing Covariates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaiser, Olga; Martius, Olivia; Horenko, Illia

2017-04-01

Regression based Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) models are often used to describe the dynamics of hydrological threshold excesses relying on the explicit availability of all of the relevant covariates. But, in real application the complete set of relevant covariates might be not available. In this context, it was shown that under weak assumptions the influence coming from systematically missing covariates can be reflected by a nonstationary and nonhomogenous dynamics. We present a data-driven, semiparametric and an adaptive approach for spatio-temporal regression based clustering of threshold excesses in a presence of systematically missing covariates. The nonstationary and nonhomogenous behavior of threshold excesses is describes by a set of local stationary GPD models, where the parameters are expressed as regression models, and a non-parametric spatio-temporal hidden switching process. Exploiting nonparametric Finite Element time-series analysis Methodology (FEM) with Bounded Variation of the model parameters (BV) for resolving the spatio-temporal switching process, the approach goes beyond strong a priori assumptions made is standard latent class models like Mixture Models and Hidden Markov Models. Additionally, the presented FEM-BV-GPD provides a pragmatic description of the corresponding spatial dependence structure by grouping together all locations that exhibit similar behavior of the switching process. The performance of the framework is demonstrated on daily accumulated precipitation series over 17 different locations in Switzerland from 1981 till 2013 - showing that the introduced approach allows for a better description of the historical data.

Modelling spatio-temporal variability of Mytilus edulis (L.) growth by forcing a dynamic energy budget model with satellite-derived environmental data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Yoann; Mazurié, Joseph; Alunno-Bruscia, Marianne; Bacher, Cédric; Bouget, Jean-François; Gohin, Francis; Pouvreau, Stéphane; Struski, Caroline

2011-11-01

In order to assess the potential of various marine ecosystems for shellfish aquaculture and to evaluate their carrying capacities, there is a need to clarify the response of exploited species to environmental variations using robust ecophysiological models and available environmental data. For a large range of applications and comparison purposes, a non-specific approach based on 'generic' individual growth models offers many advantages. In this context, we simulated the response of blue mussel ( Mytilus edulis L.) to the spatio-temporal fluctuations of the environment in Mont Saint-Michel Bay (North Brittany) by forcing a generic growth model based on Dynamic Energy Budgets with satellite-derived environmental data (i.e. temperature and food). After a calibration step based on data from mussel growth surveys, the model was applied over nine years on a large area covering the entire bay. These simulations provide an evaluation of the spatio-temporal variability in mussel growth and also show the ability of the DEB model to integrate satellite-derived data and to predict spatial and temporal growth variability of mussels. Observed seasonal, inter-annual and spatial growth variations are well simulated. The large-scale application highlights the strong link between food and mussel growth. The methodology described in this study may be considered as a suitable approach to account for environmental effects (food and temperature variations) on physiological responses (growth and reproduction) of filter feeders in varying environments. Such physiological responses may then be useful for evaluating the suitability of coastal ecosystems for shellfish aquaculture.

Real time eye tracking using Kalman extended spatio-temporal context learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munir, Farzeen; Minhas, Fayyaz ul Amir Asfar; Jalil, Abdul; Jeon, Moongu

2017-06-01

Real time eye tracking has numerous applications in human computer interaction such as a mouse cursor control in a computer system. It is useful for persons with muscular or motion impairments. However, tracking the movement of the eye is complicated by occlusion due to blinking, head movement, screen glare, rapid eye movements, etc. In this work, we present the algorithmic and construction details of a real time eye tracking system. Our proposed system is an extension of Spatio-Temporal context learning through Kalman Filtering. Spatio-Temporal Context Learning offers state of the art accuracy in general object tracking but its performance suffers due to object occlusion. Addition of the Kalman filter allows the proposed method to model the dynamics of the motion of the eye and provide robust eye tracking in cases of occlusion. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this tracking technique by controlling the computer cursor in real time by eye movements.

The evolution of meaning: spatio-temporal dynamics of visual object recognition.

PubMed

Clarke, Alex; Taylor, Kirsten I; Tyler, Lorraine K

2011-08-01

Research on the spatio-temporal dynamics of visual object recognition suggests a recurrent, interactive model whereby an initial feedforward sweep through the ventral stream to prefrontal cortex is followed by recurrent interactions. However, critical questions remain regarding the factors that mediate the degree of recurrent interactions necessary for meaningful object recognition. The novel prediction we test here is that recurrent interactivity is driven by increasing semantic integration demands as defined by the complexity of semantic information required by the task and driven by the stimuli. To test this prediction, we recorded magnetoencephalography data while participants named living and nonliving objects during two naming tasks. We found that the spatio-temporal dynamics of neural activity were modulated by the level of semantic integration required. Specifically, source reconstructed time courses and phase synchronization measures showed increased recurrent interactions as a function of semantic integration demands. These findings demonstrate that the cortical dynamics of object processing are modulated by the complexity of semantic information required from the visual input.

Spatio-temporal modeling with GIS and remote sensing for schistosomiasis control in Sichuan, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Bing

Schistosomiasis is a water-borne parasitic disease endemic in tropical and subtropical areas. Its transmission requires certain kind of snail as the intermediate host. Some efforts have been made to mapping snail habitats with remote sensing and schistosomiasis transmission modeling. However, the modeling is limited to isolated residential groups and does not include spatial interaction among those groups. Remotely sensed data are only used in snail habitat classification, not in estimation of snail abundance that is an important parameter in schistosomiasis transmission modeling. This research overcomes the above two problems using innovative geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing technology. A mountainous environment near Xichang, China, is chosen as the test site. Environmental and epidemiological data are stored in a GIS to support modeling. Snail abundance is estimated from land-cover and land-use fractions derived from high spatial resolution IKONOS satellite data. Spatial interaction is determined in consideration of neighborhoods, group areas, relative slopes among groups, and natural barriers. Land-cover and land-use information extracted from 4 m high resolution IKONOS data is used as reference in scaling up to the regional level. The scale-up is done with coarser resolution satellite data including Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM), EO-1 Advanced Land Imager (ALI) and Hyperion data all at 30 m resolution. Snail abundance is estimated by regressing snail survey data with land-cover and land-use fractions. An R2 of 0.87 is obtained between the average snail density predicted and that surveyed at the group level. With such a model, a snail density map is generated for all residential groups in the study area. A spatio-temporal model of schistosomiasis transmission is finally built to incorporate the spatial interaction caused by miracidia and cercaria migration. Comparing the model results with and without spatial interaction has revealed a

Spatio-temporal correlations in the Manna model in one, three and five dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willis, Gary; Pruessner, Gunnar

2018-02-01

Although the paradigm of criticality is centered around spatial correlations and their anomalous scaling, not many studies of self-organized criticality (SOC) focus on spatial correlations. Often, integrated observables, such as avalanche size and duration, are used, not least as to avoid complications due to the unavoidable lack of translational invariance. The present work is a survey of spatio-temporal correlation functions in the Manna Model of SOC, measured numerically in detail in d = 1,3 and 5 dimensions and compared to theoretical results, in particular relating them to “integrated” observables such as avalanche size and duration scaling, that measure them indirectly. Contrary to the notion held by some of SOC models organizing into a critical state by re-arranging their spatial structure avalanche by avalanche, which may be expected to result in large, nontrivial, system-spanning spatial correlations in the quiescent state (between avalanches), correlations of inactive particles in the quiescent state have a small amplitude that does not and cannot increase with the system size, although they display (noisy) power law scaling over a range linear in the system size. Self-organization, however, does take place as the (one-point) density of inactive particles organizes into a particular profile that is asymptotically independent of the driving location, also demonstrated analytically in one dimension. Activity and its correlations, on the other hand, display nontrivial long-ranged spatio-temporal scaling with exponents that can be related to established results, in particular avalanche size and duration exponents. The correlation length and amplitude are set by the system size (confirmed analytically for some observables), as expected in systems displaying finite size scaling. In one dimension, we find some surprising inconsistencies of the dynamical exponent. A (spatially extended) mean field theory (MFT) is recovered, with some corrections, in five

Spatio-temporal behaviour of medium-range ensemble forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kipling, Zak; Primo, Cristina; Charlton-Perez, Andrew

2010-05-01

Using the recently-developed mean-variance of logarithms (MVL) diagram, together with the TIGGE archive of medium-range ensemble forecasts from nine different centres, we present an analysis of the spatio-temporal dynamics of their perturbations, and show how the differences between models and perturbation techniques can explain the shape of their characteristic MVL curves. We also consider the use of the MVL diagram to compare the growth of perturbations within the ensemble with the growth of the forecast error, showing that there is a much closer correspondence for some models than others. We conclude by looking at how the MVL technique might assist in selecting models for inclusion in a multi-model ensemble, and suggest an experiment to test its potential in this context.

Multiscale recurrence analysis of spatio-temporal data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riedl, M.; Marwan, N.; Kurths, J.

2015-12-01

The description and analysis of spatio-temporal dynamics is a crucial task in many scientific disciplines. In this work, we propose a method which uses the mapogram as a similarity measure between spatially distributed data instances at different time points. The resulting similarity values of the pairwise comparison are used to construct a recurrence plot in order to benefit from established tools of recurrence quantification analysis and recurrence network analysis. In contrast to other recurrence tools for this purpose, the mapogram approach allows the specific focus on different spatial scales that can be used in a multi-scale analysis of spatio-temporal dynamics. We illustrate this approach by application on mixed dynamics, such as traveling parallel wave fronts with additive noise, as well as more complicate examples, pseudo-random numbers and coupled map lattices with a semi-logistic mapping rule. Especially the complicate examples show the usefulness of the multi-scale consideration in order to take spatial pattern of different scales and with different rhythms into account. So, this mapogram approach promises new insights in problems of climatology, ecology, or medicine.

Multiscale recurrence analysis of spatio-temporal data.

PubMed

Riedl, M; Marwan, N; Kurths, J

2015-12-01

The description and analysis of spatio-temporal dynamics is a crucial task in many scientific disciplines. In this work, we propose a method which uses the mapogram as a similarity measure between spatially distributed data instances at different time points. The resulting similarity values of the pairwise comparison are used to construct a recurrence plot in order to benefit from established tools of recurrence quantification analysis and recurrence network analysis. In contrast to other recurrence tools for this purpose, the mapogram approach allows the specific focus on different spatial scales that can be used in a multi-scale analysis of spatio-temporal dynamics. We illustrate this approach by application on mixed dynamics, such as traveling parallel wave fronts with additive noise, as well as more complicate examples, pseudo-random numbers and coupled map lattices with a semi-logistic mapping rule. Especially the complicate examples show the usefulness of the multi-scale consideration in order to take spatial pattern of different scales and with different rhythms into account. So, this mapogram approach promises new insights in problems of climatology, ecology, or medicine.

Bayesian Modeling of Temporal Coherence in Videos for Entity Discovery and Summarization.

PubMed

Mitra, Adway; Biswas, Soma; Bhattacharyya, Chiranjib

2017-03-01

A video is understood by users in terms of entities present in it. Entity Discovery is the task of building appearance model for each entity (e.g., a person), and finding all its occurrences in the video. We represent a video as a sequence of tracklets, each spanning 10-20 frames, and associated with one entity. We pose Entity Discovery as tracklet clustering, and approach it by leveraging Temporal Coherence (TC): the property that temporally neighboring tracklets are likely to be associated with the same entity. Our major contributions are the first Bayesian nonparametric models for TC at tracklet-level. We extend Chinese Restaurant Process (CRP) to TC-CRP, and further to Temporally Coherent Chinese Restaurant Franchise (TC-CRF) to jointly model entities and temporal segments using mixture components and sparse distributions. For discovering persons in TV serial videos without meta-data like scripts, these methods show considerable improvement over state-of-the-art approaches to tracklet clustering in terms of clustering accuracy, cluster purity and entity coverage. The proposed methods can perform online tracklet clustering on streaming videos unlike existing approaches, and can automatically reject false tracklets. Finally we discuss entity-driven video summarization- where temporal segments of the video are selected based on the discovered entities, to create a semantically meaningful summary.

Spatio-temporal response of maize yield to edaphic and meteorological conditions in a saline farmland

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Spatio-temporal variability of crop production strongly depends on soil heterogeneity, meteorological conditions, and their interaction. Canopy reflectance can be used to describe crop status and yield spatial variability. The objectives of this work were to understand the spatio-temporal variabilit...

Sensing Solutions for Collecting Spatio-Temporal Data for Wildlife Monitoring Applications: A Review

PubMed Central

Baratchi, Mitra; Meratnia, Nirvana; Havinga, Paul J. M.; Skidmore, Andrew K.; Toxopeus, Bert A. G.

2013-01-01

Movement ecology is a field which places movement as a basis for understanding animal behavior. To realize this concept, ecologists rely on data collection technologies providing spatio-temporal data in order to analyze movement. Recently, wireless sensor networks have offered new opportunities for data collection from remote places through multi-hop communication and collaborative capability of the nodes. Several technologies can be used in such networks for sensing purposes and for collecting spatio-temporal data from animals. In this paper, we investigate and review technological solutions which can be used for collecting data for wildlife monitoring. Our aim is to provide an overview of different sensing technologies used for wildlife monitoring and to review their capabilities in terms of data they provide for modeling movement behavior of animals. PMID:23666132

[Mortality from Suicide in the Municipalities of Mainland Portugal: Spatio-Temporal Evolution between 1980 and 2015].

PubMed

Loureiro, Adriana; Almendra, Ricardo; Costa, Cláudia; Santana, Paula

2018-01-31

Suicide is considered a public health priority. It is a complex phenomenon resulting from the interaction of several factors, which do not depend solely on individual conditions. This study analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution of suicide mortality between 1980 and 2015, identifying areas of high risk, and their variation, in the 278 municipalities of Continental Portugal. Based on the number of self-inflicted injuries and deaths from suicide and the resident population, the spatio-temporal evolution of the suicide mortality rate was assessed via: i) a Poisson joinpoint regression model, and ii) spatio-temporal clustering methods. The suicide mortality rate evolution showed statistically significant increases over three periods (1980 - 1984; 1999 - 2002 and 2006 - 2015) and two statistically significant periods of decrease (1984 - 1995 and 1995 - 1999). The spatio-temporal analysis identified five clusters of high suicide risk (relative risk >1) and four clusters of low suicide risk (relative risk < 1). The periods when suicide mortality increases seem to overlap with times of economic and financial instability. The geographical pattern of suicide risk has changed: presently, the suicide rates from the municipalities in the Center and North are showing more similarity with those seen in the South, thus increasing the ruralization of the phenomenon of suicide. Between 1980 and 2015 the spacio-temporal pattern of mortality from suicide has been changing and is a phenomenon that is currently experiencing a growing trend (since 2006) and is of higher risk in rural areas.

Spatio-temporal dynamic climate model for Neoleucinodes elegantalis using CLIMEX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silva, Ricardo Siqueira; Kumar, Lalit; Shabani, Farzin; da Silva, Ezio Marques; da Silva Galdino, Tarcisio Visintin; Picanço, Marcelo Coutinho

2017-05-01

Seasonal variations are important components in understanding the ecology of insect population of crops. Ecological studies through modeling may be a useful tool for enhancing knowledge of seasonal patterns of insects on field crops as well as seasonal patterns of favorable climatic conditions for species. Recently CLIMEX, a semi-mechanistic niche model, was upgraded and enhanced to consider spatio-temporal dynamics of climate suitability through time. In this study, attempts were made to determine monthly variations of climate suitability for Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) in five commercial tomato crop localities through the latest version of CLIMEX. We observed that N. elegantalis displays seasonality with increased abundance in tomato crops during summer and autumn, corresponding to the first 6 months of the year in monitored areas in this study. Our model demonstrated a strong accord between the CLIMEX weekly growth index (GIw) and the density of N. elegantalis for this period, thus indicating a greater confidence in our model results. Our model shows a seasonal variability of climatic suitability for N. elegantalis and provides useful information for initiating methods for timely management, such as sampling strategies and control, during periods of high degree of suitability for N. elegantalis. In this study, we ensure that the simulation results are valid through our verification using field data.

DynaPop-X: A population dynamics model applied to spatio-temporal exposure assessment - Implementation aspects from the CRISMA project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aubrecht, Christoph; Steinnocher, Klaus; Humer, Heinrich; Huber, Hermann

2014-05-01

In the context of proactive disaster risk as well as immediate situational crisis management knowledge of locational social aspects in terms of spatio-temporal population distribution dynamics is considered among the most important factors for disaster impact minimization (Aubrecht et al., 2013a). This applies to both the pre-event stage for designing appropriate preparedness measures and to acute crisis situations when an event chain actually unfolds for efficient situation-aware response. The presented DynaPop population dynamics model is developed at the interface of those interlinked crisis stages and aims at providing basic input for social impact evaluation and decision support in crisis management. The model provides the starting point for assessing population exposure dynamics - thus here labeled as DynaPop-X - which can either be applied in a sense of illustrating the changing locations and numbers of affected people at different stages during an event or as ex-ante estimations of probable and maximum expected clusters of affected population (Aubrecht et al., 2013b; Freire & Aubrecht, 2012). DynaPop is implemented via a gridded spatial disaggregation approach and integrates previous efforts on spatio-temporal modeling that account for various aspects of population dynamics such as human mobility and activity patterns that are particularly relevant in picturing the highly dynamic daytime situation (Ahola et al., 2007; Bhaduri, 2008; Cockings et al., 2010). We will present ongoing developments particularly focusing on the implementation logic of the model using the emikat software tool, a data management system initially designed for inventorying and analysis of spatially resolved regional air pollutant emission scenarios. This study was performed in the framework of the EU CRISMA project. CRISMA is funded from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no. 284552. REFERENCES Ahola, T., Virrantaus, K., Krisp, J

Probing the Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Temporal Aliasing Errors and their Impact on Satellite Gravity Retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiese, D. N.; McCullough, C. M.

2017-12-01

Studies have shown that both single pair low-low satellite-to-satellite tracking (LL-SST) and dual-pair LL-SST hypothetical future satellite gravimetry missions utilizing improved onboard measurement systems relative to the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) will be limited by temporal aliasing errors; that is, the error introduced through deficiencies in models of high frequency mass variations required for the data processing. Here, we probe the spatio-temporal characteristics of temporal aliasing errors to understand their impact on satellite gravity retrievals using high fidelity numerical simulations. We find that while aliasing errors are dominant at long wavelengths and multi-day timescales, improving knowledge of high frequency mass variations at these resolutions translates into only modest improvements (i.e. spatial resolution/accuracy) in the ability to measure temporal gravity variations at monthly timescales. This result highlights the reliance on accurate models of high frequency mass variations for gravity processing, and the difficult nature of reducing temporal aliasing errors and their impact on satellite gravity retrievals.

A Novel Method to Verify Multilevel Computational Models of Biological Systems Using Multiscale Spatio-Temporal Meta Model Checking

PubMed Central

Gilbert, David

2016-01-01

Insights gained from multilevel computational models of biological systems can be translated into real-life applications only if the model correctness has been verified first. One of the most frequently employed in silico techniques for computational model verification is model checking. Traditional model checking approaches only consider the evolution of numeric values, such as concentrations, over time and are appropriate for computational models of small scale systems (e.g. intracellular networks). However for gaining a systems level understanding of how biological organisms function it is essential to consider more complex large scale biological systems (e.g. organs). Verifying computational models of such systems requires capturing both how numeric values and properties of (emergent) spatial structures (e.g. area of multicellular population) change over time and across multiple levels of organization, which are not considered by existing model checking approaches. To address this limitation we have developed a novel approximate probabilistic multiscale spatio-temporal meta model checking methodology for verifying multilevel computational models relative to specifications describing the desired/expected system behaviour. The methodology is generic and supports computational models encoded using various high-level modelling formalisms because it is defined relative to time series data and not the models used to generate it. In addition, the methodology can be automatically adapted to case study specific types of spatial structures and properties using the spatio-temporal meta model checking concept. To automate the computational model verification process we have implemented the model checking approach in the software tool Mule (http://mule.modelchecking.org). Its applicability is illustrated against four systems biology computational models previously published in the literature encoding the rat cardiovascular system dynamics, the uterine contractions of labour

Spatio-Temporal Clustering of Monitoring Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, I.; Pilz, J.

2009-04-01

Pakistan has much diversity in seasonal variation of different locations. Some areas are in desserts and remain very hot and waterless, for example coastal areas are situated along the Arabian Sea and have very warm season and a little rainfall. Some areas are covered with mountains, have very low temperature and heavy rainfall; for instance Karakoram ranges. The most important variables that have an impact on the climate are temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed and elevation. Furthermore, it is hard to find homogeneous regions in Pakistan with respect to climate variation. Identification of homogeneous regions in Pakistan can be useful in many aspects. It can be helpful for prediction of the climate in the sub-regions and for optimizing the number of monitoring sites. In the earlier literature no one tried to identify homogeneous regions of Pakistan with respect to climate variation. There are only a few papers about spatio-temporal clustering of monitoring network. Steinhaus (1956) presented the well-known K-means clustering method. It can identify a predefined number of clusters by iteratively assigning centriods to clusters based. Castro et al. (1997) developed a genetic heuristic algorithm to solve medoids based clustering. Their method is based on genetic recombination upon random assorting recombination. The suggested method is appropriate for clustering the attributes which have genetic characteristics. Sap and Awan (2005) presented a robust weighted kernel K-means algorithm incorporating spatial constraints for clustering climate data. The proposed algorithm can effectively handle noise, outliers and auto-correlation in the spatial data, for effective and efficient data analysis by exploring patterns and structures in the data. Soltani and Modarres (2006) used hierarchical and divisive cluster analysis to categorize patterns of rainfall in Iran. They only considered rainfall at twenty-eight monitoring sites and concluded that eight clusters

Initial spatio-temporal domain expansion of the Modelfest database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carney, Thom; Mozaffari, Sahar; Sun, Sean; Johnson, Ryan; Shirvastava, Sharona; Shen, Priscilla; Ly, Emma

2013-03-01

The first Modelfest group publication appeared in the SPIE Human Vision and Electronic Imaging conference proceedings in 1999. "One of the group's goals is to develop a public database of test images with threshold data from multiple laboratories for designing and testing HVS (Human Vision Models)." After extended discussions the group selected a set of 45 static images thought to best meet that goal and collected psychophysical detection data which is available on the WEB and presented in the 2000 SPIE conference proceedings. Several groups have used these datasets to test spatial modeling ideas. Further discussions led to the preliminary stimulus specification for extending the database into the temporal domain which was published in the 2002 conference proceeding. After a hiatus of 12 years, some of us have collected spatio-temporal thresholds on an expanded stimulus set of 41 video clips; the original specification included 35 clips. The principal change involved adding one additional spatial pattern beyond the three originally specified. The stimuli consisted of 4 spatial patterns, Gaussian Blob, 4 c/d Gabor patch, 11.3 c/d Gabor patch and a 2D white noise patch. Across conditions the patterns were temporally modulated over a range of approximately 0-25 Hz as well as temporal edge and pulse modulation conditions. The display and data collection specifications were as specified by the Modelfest groups in the 2002 conference proceedings. To date seven subjects have participated in this phase of the data collection effort, one of which also participated in the first phase of Modelfest. Three of the spatio-temporal stimuli were identical to conditions in the original static dataset. Small differences in the thresholds were evident and may point to a stimulus limitation. The temporal CSF peaked between 4 and 8 Hz for the 0 c/d (Gaussian blob) and 4 c/d patterns. The 4 c/d and 11.3 c/d Gabor temporal CSF was low pass while the 0 c/d pattern was band pass. This

Spatio-temporal dynamics of security investments in an interdependent risk environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafi, Kamran; Bender, Axel; Zhong, Weicai; Abbass, Hussein A.

2012-10-01

In a globalised world where risks spread through contagion, the decision of an entity to invest in securing its premises from stochastic risks no longer depends solely on its own actions but also on the actions of other interacting entities in the system. This phenomenon is commonly seen in many domains including airline, logistics and computer security and is referred to as Interdependent Security (IDS). An IDS game models this decision problem from a game-theoretic perspective and deals with the behavioural dynamics of risk-reduction investments in such settings. This paper enhances this model and investigates the spatio-temporal aspects of the IDS games. The spatio-temporal dynamics are studied using simple replicator dynamics on a variety of network structures and for various security cost tradeoffs that lead to different Nash equilibria in an IDS game. The simulation results show that the neighbourhood configuration has a greater effect on the IDS game dynamics than network structure. An in-depth empirical analysis of game dynamics is carried out on regular graphs, which leads to the articulation of necessary and sufficient conditions for dominance in IDS games under spatial constraints.

Spatio-Temporal Patterning in Primary Motor Cortex at Movement Onset.

PubMed

Best, Matthew D; Suminski, Aaron J; Takahashi, Kazutaka; Brown, Kevin A; Hatsopoulos, Nicholas G

2017-02-01

Voluntary movement initiation involves the engagement of large populations of motor cortical neurons around movement onset. Despite knowledge of the temporal dynamics that lead to movement, the spatial structure of these dynamics across the cortical surface remains unknown. In data from 4 rhesus macaques, we show that the timing of attenuation of beta frequency local field potential oscillations, a correlate of locally activated cortex, forms a spatial gradient across primary motor cortex (MI). We show that these spatio-temporal dynamics are recapitulated in the engagement order of ensembles of MI neurons. We demonstrate that these patterns are unique to movement onset and suggest that movement initiation requires a precise spatio-temporal sequential activation of neurons in MI. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

SpatialEpiApp: A Shiny web application for the analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal disease data.

PubMed

Moraga, Paula

2017-11-01

During last years, public health surveillance has been facilitated by the existence of several packages implementing statistical methods for the analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal disease data. However, these methods are still inaccesible for many researchers lacking the adequate programming skills to effectively use the required software. In this paper we present SpatialEpiApp, a Shiny web application that integrate two of the most common approaches in health surveillance: disease mapping and detection of clusters. SpatialEpiApp is easy to use and does not require any programming knowledge. Given information about the cases, population and optionally covariates for each of the areas and dates of study, the application allows to fit Bayesian models to obtain disease risk estimates and their uncertainty by using R-INLA, and to detect disease clusters by using SaTScan. The application allows user interaction and the creation of interactive data visualizations and reports showing the analyses performed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating and implementing temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal methods for outbreak detection in a local syndromic surveillance system

PubMed Central

Lall, Ramona; Levin-Rector, Alison; Sell, Jessica; Paladini, Marc; Konty, Kevin J.; Olson, Don; Weiss, Don

2017-01-01

The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene has operated an emergency department syndromic surveillance system since 2001, using temporal and spatial scan statistics run on a daily basis for cluster detection. Since the system was originally implemented, a number of new methods have been proposed for use in cluster detection. We evaluated six temporal and four spatial/spatio-temporal detection methods using syndromic surveillance data spiked with simulated injections. The algorithms were compared on several metrics, including sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, coherence, and timeliness. We also evaluated each method’s implementation, programming time, run time, and the ease of use. Among the temporal methods, at a set specificity of 95%, a Holt-Winters exponential smoother performed the best, detecting 19% of the simulated injects across all shapes and sizes, followed by an autoregressive moving average model (16%), a generalized linear model (15%), a modified version of the Early Aberration Reporting System’s C2 algorithm (13%), a temporal scan statistic (11%), and a cumulative sum control chart (<2%). Of the spatial/spatio-temporal methods we tested, a spatial scan statistic detected 3% of all injects, a Bayes regression found 2%, and a generalized linear mixed model and a space-time permutation scan statistic detected none at a specificity of 95%. Positive predictive value was low (<7%) for all methods. Overall, the detection methods we tested did not perform well in identifying the temporal and spatial clusters of cases in the inject dataset. The spatial scan statistic, our current method for spatial cluster detection, performed slightly better than the other tested methods across different inject magnitudes and types. Furthermore, we found the scan statistics, as applied in the SaTScan software package, to be the easiest to program and implement for daily data analysis. PMID:28886112

Evaluating and implementing temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal methods for outbreak detection in a local syndromic surveillance system.

PubMed

Mathes, Robert W; Lall, Ramona; Levin-Rector, Alison; Sell, Jessica; Paladini, Marc; Konty, Kevin J; Olson, Don; Weiss, Don

2017-01-01

The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene has operated an emergency department syndromic surveillance system since 2001, using temporal and spatial scan statistics run on a daily basis for cluster detection. Since the system was originally implemented, a number of new methods have been proposed for use in cluster detection. We evaluated six temporal and four spatial/spatio-temporal detection methods using syndromic surveillance data spiked with simulated injections. The algorithms were compared on several metrics, including sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, coherence, and timeliness. We also evaluated each method's implementation, programming time, run time, and the ease of use. Among the temporal methods, at a set specificity of 95%, a Holt-Winters exponential smoother performed the best, detecting 19% of the simulated injects across all shapes and sizes, followed by an autoregressive moving average model (16%), a generalized linear model (15%), a modified version of the Early Aberration Reporting System's C2 algorithm (13%), a temporal scan statistic (11%), and a cumulative sum control chart (<2%). Of the spatial/spatio-temporal methods we tested, a spatial scan statistic detected 3% of all injects, a Bayes regression found 2%, and a generalized linear mixed model and a space-time permutation scan statistic detected none at a specificity of 95%. Positive predictive value was low (<7%) for all methods. Overall, the detection methods we tested did not perform well in identifying the temporal and spatial clusters of cases in the inject dataset. The spatial scan statistic, our current method for spatial cluster detection, performed slightly better than the other tested methods across different inject magnitudes and types. Furthermore, we found the scan statistics, as applied in the SaTScan software package, to be the easiest to program and implement for daily data analysis.

Bayesian modeling to assess populated areas impacted by radiation from Fukushima

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hultquist, C.; Cervone, G.

2017-12-01

Citizen-led movements producing spatio-temporal big data are increasingly important sources of information about populations that are impacted by natural disasters. Citizen science can be used to fill gaps in disaster monitoring data, in addition to inferring human exposure and vulnerability to extreme environmental impacts. As a response to the 2011 release of radiation from Fukushima, Japan, the Safecast project began collecting open radiation data which grew to be a global dataset of over 70 million measurements to date. This dataset is spatially distributed primarily where humans are located and demonstrates abnormal patterns of population movements as a result of the disaster. Previous work has demonstrated that Safecast is highly correlated in comparison to government radiation observations. However, there is still a scientific need to understand the geostatistical variability of Safecast data and to assess how reliable the data are over space and time. The Bayesian hierarchical approach can be used to model the spatial distribution of datasets and flexibly integrate new flows of data without losing previous information. This enables an understanding of uncertainty in the spatio-temporal data to inform decision makers on areas of high levels of radiation where populations are located. Citizen science data can be scientifically evaluated and used as a critical source of information about populations that are impacted by a disaster.

Spatio-temporal pattern of viral meningitis in Michigan, 1993-2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greene, Sharon K.; Schmidt, Mark A.; Stobierski, Mary Grace; Wilson, Mark L.

2005-05-01

To characterize Michigan's high viral meningitis incidence rates, 8,803 cases from 1993-2001 were analyzed for standard epidemiological indices, geographic distribution, and spatio-temporal clusters. Blacks and infants were found to be high-risk groups. Annual seasonality and interannual variability in epidemic magnitude were apparent. Cases were concentrated in southern Michigan, and cumulative incidence was correlated with population density at the county level (r=0.45, p<0.001). Kulldorff's Scan test identified the occurrence of spatio-temporal clusters in Lower Michigan during July-October 1998 and 2001 (p=0.01). More extensive data on cases, laboratory isolates, sociodemographics, and environmental exposures should improve detection and enhance the effectiveness of a Space-Time Information System aimed at prevention.

Environmental and socio-economic change in Thailand: quantifying spatio-temporal risk factors of dengue to inform decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodo, X.; Lowe, R.; Karczewska-Gibert, A.; Cazelles, B.

2013-12-01

Dengue is a peri-urban mosquito-transmitted disease, ubiquitous in the tropics and the subtropics. The geographic distribution of dengue and its more severe form, dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF), have expanded dramatically in the last decades and dengue is now considered to be the world's most important arboviral disease. Recent demographic changes have greatly contributed to the acceleration and spread of the disease along with uncontrolled urbanization, population growth and increased air travel, which acts as a mechanism for transporting and exchanging dengue viruses between endemic and epidemic populations. The dengue vector and virus are extremely sensitive to environmental conditions such as temperature, humidity and precipitation that influence mosquito biology, abundance and habitat and the virus replication speed. In order to control the spread of dengue and impede epidemics, decision support systems are required that take into account the multi-faceted array of factors that contribute to increased dengue risk. Due to availability of seasonal climate forecasts, that predict the average climate conditions for forthcoming months/seasons in both time and space, there is an opportunity to incorporate precursory climate information in a dengue decision support system to aid epidemic planning months in advance. Furthermore, oceanic indicators from teleconnected areas in the Pacific and Indian Ocean, that can provide some indication of the likely prevailing climate conditions in certain regions, could potentially extend predictive lead time in a dengue early warning system. In this paper we adopt a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling framework for dengue in Thailand to support public health decision making. Monthly cases of dengue in the 76 provinces of Thailand for the period 1982-2012 are modelled using a multi-layered approach. Explanatory variables at various spatial and temporal resolutions are incorporated into a hierarchical model in order to make spatio-temporal

Spatio-temporal hierarchy in the dynamics of a minimalist protein model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsunaga, Yasuhiro; Baba, Akinori; Li, Chun-Biu; Straub, John E.; Toda, Mikito; Komatsuzaki, Tamiki; Berry, R. Stephen

2013-12-01

A method for time series analysis of molecular dynamics simulation of a protein is presented. In this approach, wavelet analysis and principal component analysis are combined to decompose the spatio-temporal protein dynamics into contributions from a hierarchy of different time and space scales. Unlike the conventional Fourier-based approaches, the time-localized wavelet basis captures the vibrational energy transfers among the collective motions of proteins. As an illustrative vehicle, we have applied our method to a coarse-grained minimalist protein model. During the folding and unfolding transitions of the protein, vibrational energy transfers between the fast and slow time scales were observed among the large-amplitude collective coordinates while the other small-amplitude motions are regarded as thermal noise. Analysis employing a Gaussian-based measure revealed that the time scales of the energy redistribution in the subspace spanned by such large-amplitude collective coordinates are slow compared to the other small-amplitude coordinates. Future prospects of the method are discussed in detail.

Spatio-temporal processing of tactile stimuli in autistic children

PubMed Central

Wada, Makoto; Suzuki, Mayuko; Takaki, Akiko; Miyao, Masutomo; Spence, Charles; Kansaku, Kenji

2014-01-01

Altered multisensory integration has been reported in autism; however, little is known concerning how the autistic brain processes spatio-temporal information concerning tactile stimuli. We report a study in which a crossed-hands illusion was investigated in autistic children. Neurotypical individuals often experience a subjective reversal of temporal order judgments when their hands are stimulated while crossed, and the illusion is known to be acquired in early childhood. However, under those conditions where the somatotopic representation is given priority over the actual spatial location of the hands, such reversals may not occur. Here, we showed that a significantly smaller illusory reversal was demonstrated in autistic children than in neurotypical children. Furthermore, in an additional experiment, the young boys who had higher Autism Spectrum Quotient (AQ) scores generally showed a smaller crossed hands deficit. These results suggest that rudimentary spatio-temporal processing of tactile stimuli exists in autistic children, and the altered processing may interfere with the development of an external frame of reference in real-life situations. PMID:25100146

Spatio-temporal mapping of Madagascar's Malaria Indicator Survey results to assess Plasmodium falciparum endemicity trends between 2011 and 2016.

PubMed

Kang, Su Yun; Battle, Katherine E; Gibson, Harry S; Ratsimbasoa, Arsène; Randrianarivelojosia, Milijaona; Ramboarina, Stéphanie; Zimmerman, Peter A; Weiss, Daniel J; Cameron, Ewan; Gething, Peter W; Howes, Rosalind E

2018-05-23

Reliable measures of disease burden over time are necessary to evaluate the impact of interventions and assess sub-national trends in the distribution of infection. Three Malaria Indicator Surveys (MISs) have been conducted in Madagascar since 2011. They provide a valuable resource to assess changes in burden that is complementary to the country's routine case reporting system. A Bayesian geostatistical spatio-temporal model was developed in an integrated nested Laplace approximation framework to map the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection among children from 6 to 59 months in age across Madagascar for 2011, 2013 and 2016 based on the MIS datasets. The model was informed by a suite of environmental and socio-demographic covariates known to influence infection prevalence. Spatio-temporal trends were quantified across the country. Despite a relatively small decrease between 2013 and 2016, the prevalence of malaria infection has increased substantially in all areas of Madagascar since 2011. In 2011, almost half (42.3%) of the country's population lived in areas of very low malaria risk (<1% parasite prevalence), but by 2016, this had dropped to only 26.7% of the population. Meanwhile, the population in high transmission areas (prevalence >20%) increased from only 2.2% in 2011 to 9.2% in 2016. A comparison of the model-based estimates with the raw MIS results indicates there was an underestimation of the situation in 2016, since the raw figures likely associated with survey timings were delayed until after the peak transmission season. Malaria remains an important health problem in Madagascar. The monthly and annual prevalence maps developed here provide a way to evaluate the magnitude of change over time, taking into account variability in survey input data. These methods can contribute to monitoring sub-national trends of malaria prevalence in Madagascar as the country aims for geographically progressive elimination.

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Forest Fire Risk and Danger Using LANDSAT Imagery.

PubMed

Saglam, Bülent; Bilgili, Ertugrul; Dincdurmaz, Bahar; Kadiogulari, Ali Ihsan; Kücük, Ömer

2008-06-20

Computing fire danger and fire risk on a spatio-temporal scale is of crucial importance in fire management planning, and in the simulation of fire growth and development across a landscape. However, due to the complex nature of forests, fire risk and danger potential maps are considered one of the most difficult thematic layers to build up. Remote sensing and digital terrain data have been introduced for efficient discrete classification of fire risk and fire danger potential. In this study, two time-series data of Landsat imagery were used for determining spatio-temporal change of fire risk and danger potential in Korudag forest planning unit in northwestern Turkey. The method comprised the following two steps: (1) creation of indices of the factors influencing fire risk and danger; (2) evaluation of spatio-temporal changes in fire risk and danger of given areas using remote sensing as a quick and inexpensive means and determining the pace of forest cover change. Fire risk and danger potential indices were based on species composition, stand crown closure, stand development stage, insolation, slope and, proximity of agricultural lands to forest and distance from settlement areas. Using the indices generated, fire risk and danger maps were produced for the years 1987 and 2000. Spatio-temporal analyses were then realized based on the maps produced. Results obtained from the study showed that the use of Landsat imagery provided a valuable characterization and mapping of vegetation structure and type with overall classification accuracy higher than 83%.

Spatio-Temporal Patterns in Colonies of Rod-Shaped Bacteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitsunezaki, S.

In incubation experiments of bacterial colonies of Proteus Mirabilis, macroscopic spatio-temporal patterns, such as turbulent and unidirectional spiral patterns, appear in colonies. Considering only kinetic propeties of rod-shaped bacteria, we propose a phenomenological model for the directional and positional distributions. As the average density increases, homogeneous states bifurcate sub-critically into nonuniform states exhibiting localized collective motion, and spiral patterns appear for sufficiently large density. These patterns result from interactions between the local bacteria densities and the order parameter representing collective motion. Our model can be described by reduced equations using a perturbative method for large density. The unidirectionality of sprial rotation is also discussed.

Community ecology in 3D: Tensor decomposition reveals spatio-temporal dynamics of large ecological communities

PubMed Central

Lindegren, Martin; Denker, Tim Spaanheden; Floeter, Jens; Fock, Heino O.; Sguotti, Camilla; Stäbler, Moritz; Otto, Saskia A.; Möllmann, Christian

2017-01-01

Understanding spatio-temporal dynamics of biotic communities containing large numbers of species is crucial to guide ecosystem management and conservation efforts. However, traditional approaches usually focus on studying community dynamics either in space or in time, often failing to fully account for interlinked spatio-temporal changes. In this study, we demonstrate and promote the use of tensor decomposition for disentangling spatio-temporal community dynamics in long-term monitoring data. Tensor decomposition builds on traditional multivariate statistics (e.g. Principal Component Analysis) but extends it to multiple dimensions. This extension allows for the synchronized study of multiple ecological variables measured repeatedly in time and space. We applied this comprehensive approach to explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of 65 demersal fish species in the North Sea, a marine ecosystem strongly altered by human activities and climate change. Our case study demonstrates how tensor decomposition can successfully (i) characterize the main spatio-temporal patterns and trends in species abundances, (ii) identify sub-communities of species that share similar spatial distribution and temporal dynamics, and (iii) reveal external drivers of change. Our results revealed a strong spatial structure in fish assemblages persistent over time and linked to differences in depth, primary production and seasonality. Furthermore, we simultaneously characterized important temporal distribution changes related to the low frequency temperature variability inherent in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Finally, we identified six major sub-communities composed of species sharing similar spatial distribution patterns and temporal dynamics. Our case study demonstrates the application and benefits of using tensor decomposition for studying complex community data sets usually derived from large-scale monitoring programs. PMID:29136658

Community ecology in 3D: Tensor decomposition reveals spatio-temporal dynamics of large ecological communities.

PubMed

Frelat, Romain; Lindegren, Martin; Denker, Tim Spaanheden; Floeter, Jens; Fock, Heino O; Sguotti, Camilla; Stäbler, Moritz; Otto, Saskia A; Möllmann, Christian

2017-01-01

Understanding spatio-temporal dynamics of biotic communities containing large numbers of species is crucial to guide ecosystem management and conservation efforts. However, traditional approaches usually focus on studying community dynamics either in space or in time, often failing to fully account for interlinked spatio-temporal changes. In this study, we demonstrate and promote the use of tensor decomposition for disentangling spatio-temporal community dynamics in long-term monitoring data. Tensor decomposition builds on traditional multivariate statistics (e.g. Principal Component Analysis) but extends it to multiple dimensions. This extension allows for the synchronized study of multiple ecological variables measured repeatedly in time and space. We applied this comprehensive approach to explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of 65 demersal fish species in the North Sea, a marine ecosystem strongly altered by human activities and climate change. Our case study demonstrates how tensor decomposition can successfully (i) characterize the main spatio-temporal patterns and trends in species abundances, (ii) identify sub-communities of species that share similar spatial distribution and temporal dynamics, and (iii) reveal external drivers of change. Our results revealed a strong spatial structure in fish assemblages persistent over time and linked to differences in depth, primary production and seasonality. Furthermore, we simultaneously characterized important temporal distribution changes related to the low frequency temperature variability inherent in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Finally, we identified six major sub-communities composed of species sharing similar spatial distribution patterns and temporal dynamics. Our case study demonstrates the application and benefits of using tensor decomposition for studying complex community data sets usually derived from large-scale monitoring programs.

Estimating spatio-temporal dynamics of stream total phosphate concentration by soft computing techniques.

PubMed

Chang, Fi-John; Chen, Pin-An; Chang, Li-Chiu; Tsai, Yu-Hsuan

2016-08-15

This study attempts to model the spatio-temporal dynamics of total phosphate (TP) concentrations along a river for effective hydro-environmental management. We propose a systematical modeling scheme (SMS), which is an ingenious modeling process equipped with a dynamic neural network and three refined statistical methods, for reliably predicting the TP concentrations along a river simultaneously. Two different types of artificial neural network (BPNN-static neural network; NARX network-dynamic neural network) are constructed in modeling the dynamic system. The Dahan River in Taiwan is used as a study case, where ten-year seasonal water quality data collected at seven monitoring stations along the river are used for model training and validation. Results demonstrate that the NARX network can suitably capture the important dynamic features and remarkably outperforms the BPNN model, and the SMS can effectively identify key input factors, suitably overcome data scarcity, significantly increase model reliability, satisfactorily estimate site-specific TP concentration at seven monitoring stations simultaneously, and adequately reconstruct seasonal TP data into a monthly scale. The proposed SMS can reliably model the dynamic spatio-temporal water pollution variation in a river system for missing, hazardous or costly data of interest. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Meteor tracking via local pattern clustering in spatio-temporal domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukal, Jaromír.; Klimt, Martin; Švihlík, Jan; Fliegel, Karel

2016-09-01

Reliable meteor detection is one of the crucial disciplines in astronomy. A variety of imaging systems is used for meteor path reconstruction. The traditional approach is based on analysis of 2D image sequences obtained from a double station video observation system. Precise localization of meteor path is difficult due to atmospheric turbulence and other factors causing spatio-temporal fluctuations of the image background. The proposed technique performs non-linear preprocessing of image intensity using Box-Cox transform as recommended in our previous work. Both symmetric and asymmetric spatio-temporal differences are designed to be robust in the statistical sense. Resulting local patterns are processed by data whitening technique and obtained vectors are classified via cluster analysis and Self-Organized Map (SOM).

Decoding-Accuracy-Based Sequential Dimensionality Reduction of Spatio-Temporal Neural Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funamizu, Akihiro; Kanzaki, Ryohei; Takahashi, Hirokazu

Performance of a brain machine interface (BMI) critically depends on selection of input data because information embedded in the neural activities is highly redundant. In addition, properly selected input data with a reduced dimension leads to improvement of decoding generalization ability and decrease of computational efforts, both of which are significant advantages for the clinical applications. In the present paper, we propose an algorithm of sequential dimensionality reduction (SDR) that effectively extracts motor/sensory related spatio-temporal neural activities. The algorithm gradually reduces input data dimension by dropping neural data spatio-temporally so as not to undermine the decoding accuracy as far as possible. Support vector machine (SVM) was used as the decoder, and tone-induced neural activities in rat auditory cortices were decoded into the test tone frequencies. SDR reduced the input data dimension to a quarter and significantly improved the accuracy of decoding of novel data. Moreover, spatio-temporal neural activity patterns selected by SDR resulted in significantly higher accuracy than high spike rate patterns or conventionally used spatial patterns. These results suggest that the proposed algorithm can improve the generalization ability and decrease the computational effort of decoding.

Spatio-temporal factors associated with meningococcal meningitis annual incidence at the health centre level in Niger, 2004-2010.

PubMed

Paireau, Juliette; Maïnassara, Halima B; Jusot, Jean-François; Collard, Jean-Marc; Idi, Issa; Moulia-Pelat, Jean-Paul; Mueller, Judith E; Fontanet, Arnaud

2014-05-01

Epidemics of meningococcal meningitis (MM) recurrently strike the African Meningitis Belt. This study aimed at investigating factors, still poorly understood, that influence annual incidence of MM serogroup A, the main etiologic agent over 2004-2010, at a fine spatial scale in Niger. To take into account data dependencies over space and time and control for unobserved confounding factors, we developed an explanatory Bayesian hierarchical model over 2004-2010 at the health centre catchment area (HCCA) level. The multivariate model revealed that both climatic and non-climatic factors were important for explaining spatio-temporal variations in incidence: mean relative humidity during November-June over the study region (posterior mean Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) = 0.656, 95% Credible Interval (CI) 0.405-0.949) and occurrence of early rains in March in a HCCA (IRR = 0.353, 95% CI 0.239-0.502) were protective factors; a higher risk was associated with the percentage of neighbouring HCCAs having at least one MM A case during the same year (IRR = 2.365, 95% CI 2.078-2.695), the presence of a road crossing the HCCA (IRR = 1.743, 95% CI 1.173-2.474) and the occurrence of cases before 31 December in a HCCA (IRR = 6.801, 95% CI 4.004-10.910). At the study region level, higher annual incidence correlated with greater geographic spread and, to a lesser extent, with higher intensity of localized outbreaks. Based on these findings, we hypothesize that spatio-temporal variability of MM A incidence between years and HCCAs result from variations in the intensity or duration of the dry season climatic effects on disease risk, and is further impacted by factors of spatial contacts, representing facilitated pathogen transmission. Additional unexplained factors may contribute to the observed incidence patterns and should be further investigated.

Spatio-temporal organization of replication in bacteria and eukaryotes (nucleoids and nuclei).

PubMed

Jackson, Dean; Wang, Xindan; Rudner, David Z

2012-08-01

Here we discuss the spatio-temporal organization of replication in eubacteria and eukaryotes. Although there are significant differences in how replication is organized in cells that contain nuclei from those that do not, you will see that organization of replication in all organisms is principally dictated by the structured arrangement of the chromosome. We will begin with how replication is organized in eubacteria with particular emphasis on three well studied model organisms. We will then discuss spatial and temporal organization of replication in eukaryotes highlighting the similarities and differences between these two domains of life.

A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Glacial Dynamics Based on the Shallow Ice Approximation and its Evaluation Using Analytical Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopalan, Giri; Hrafnkelsson, Birgir; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Jarosch, Alexander H.; Pálsson, Finnur

2018-03-01

Bayesian hierarchical modeling can assist the study of glacial dynamics and ice flow properties. This approach will allow glaciologists to make fully probabilistic predictions for the thickness of a glacier at unobserved spatio-temporal coordinates, and it will also allow for the derivation of posterior probability distributions for key physical parameters such as ice viscosity and basal sliding. The goal of this paper is to develop a proof of concept for a Bayesian hierarchical model constructed, which uses exact analytical solutions for the shallow ice approximation (SIA) introduced by Bueler et al. (2005). A suite of test simulations utilizing these exact solutions suggests that this approach is able to adequately model numerical errors and produce useful physical parameter posterior distributions and predictions. A byproduct of the development of the Bayesian hierarchical model is the derivation of a novel finite difference method for solving the SIA partial differential equation (PDE). An additional novelty of this work is the correction of numerical errors induced through a numerical solution using a statistical model. This error correcting process models numerical errors that accumulate forward in time and spatial variation of numerical errors between the dome, interior, and margin of a glacier.

Spatio-temporal conditional inference and hypothesis tests for neural ensemble spiking precision

PubMed Central

Harrison, Matthew T.; Amarasingham, Asohan; Truccolo, Wilson

2014-01-01

The collective dynamics of neural ensembles create complex spike patterns with many spatial and temporal scales. Understanding the statistical structure of these patterns can help resolve fundamental questions about neural computation and neural dynamics. Spatio-temporal conditional inference (STCI) is introduced here as a semiparametric statistical framework for investigating the nature of precise spiking patterns from collections of neurons that is robust to arbitrarily complex and nonstationary coarse spiking dynamics. The main idea is to focus statistical modeling and inference, not on the full distribution of the data, but rather on families of conditional distributions of precise spiking given different types of coarse spiking. The framework is then used to develop families of hypothesis tests for probing the spatio-temporal precision of spiking patterns. Relationships among different conditional distributions are used to improve multiple hypothesis testing adjustments and to design novel Monte Carlo spike resampling algorithms. Of special note are algorithms that can locally jitter spike times while still preserving the instantaneous peri-stimulus time histogram (PSTH) or the instantaneous total spike count from a group of recorded neurons. The framework can also be used to test whether first-order maximum entropy models with possibly random and time-varying parameters can account for observed patterns of spiking. STCI provides a detailed example of the generic principle of conditional inference, which may be applicable in other areas of neurostatistical analysis. PMID:25380339

Discovering spatio-temporal models of the spread of West Nile virus.

PubMed

Orme-Zavaleta, Jennifer; Jorgensen, Jane; D'Ambrosio, Bruce; Altendorf, Eric; Rossignol, Philippe A

2006-04-01

Emerging infectious diseases are characterized by complex interactions among disease agents, vectors, wildlife, humans, and the environment. Since the appearance of West Nile virus (WNV) in New York City in 1999, it has infected over 8,000 people in the United States, resulting in several hundred deaths in 46 contiguous states. The virus is transmitted by mosquitoes and maintained in various bird reservoir hosts. Its unexpected introduction, high morbidity, and rapid spread have left public health agencies facing severe time constraints in a theory-poor environment, dependent largely on observational data collected by independent survey efforts and much uncertainty. Current knowledge may be expressed as a priori constraints on models learned from data. Accordingly, we applied a Bayesian probabilistic relational approach to generate spatially and temporally linked models from heterogeneous data sources. Using data collected from multiple independent sources in Maryland, we discovered the integrated context in which infected birds are plausible indicators for positive mosquito pools and human cases for 2001 and 2002.

Spatio-Temporal Organization of Replication in Bacteria and Eukaryotes (Nucleoids and Nuclei)

PubMed Central

Jackson, Dean; Wang, Xindan; Rudner, David Z.

2012-01-01

Here we discuss the spatio-temporal organization of replication in eubacteria and eukaryotes. Although there are significant differences in how replication is organized in cells that contain nuclei from those that do not, you will see that organization of replication in all organisms is principally dictated by the structured arrangement of the chromosome. We will begin with how replication is organized in eubacteria with particular emphasis on three well studied model organisms. We will then discuss spatial and temporal organization of replication in eukaryotes highlighting the similarities and differences between these two domains of life. PMID:22855726

Spatio-temporal clustering of wildfires in Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, R.; Pereira, M. G.; Caramelo, L.; Vega Orozco, C.; Kanevski, M.

2012-04-01

Several studies have shown that wildfires in Portugal presenthigh temporal as well as high spatial variability (Pereira et al., 2005, 2011). The identification and characterization of spatio-temporal clusters contributes to a comprehensivecharacterization of the fire regime and to improve the efficiency of fire prevention and combat activities. The main goalsin this studyare: (i) to detect the spatio-temporal clusters of burned area; and, (ii) to characterize these clusters along with the role of human and environmental factors. The data were supplied by the National Forest Authority(AFN, 2011) and comprises: (a)the Portuguese Rural Fire Database, PRFD, (Pereira et al., 2011) for the 1980-2007period; and, (b) the national mapping burned areas between 1990 and 2009. In this work, in order to complement the more common cluster analysis algorithms, an alternative approach based onscan statistics and on the permutation modelwas used. This statistical methodallows the detection of local excess events and to test if such an excess can reasonably have occurred by chance.Results obtained for different simulations performed for different spatial and temporal windows are presented, compared and interpreted.The influence of several fire factors such as (climate, vegetation type, etc.) is also assessed. Pereira, M.G., Trigo, R.M., DaCamara, C.C., Pereira, J.M.C., Leite, S.M., 2005:"Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal".Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 129, 11-25. Pereira, M. G., Malamud, B. D., Trigo, R. M., and Alves, P. I.: The history and characteristics of the 1980-2005 Portuguese rural fire database, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 3343-3358, doi:10.5194/nhess-11-3343-2011, 2011 AFN, 2011: AutoridadeFlorestalNacional (National Forest Authority). Available at http://www.afn.min-agricultura.pt/portal.

Spatio-temporal activity of lightnings over Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nastos, P. T.; Matsangouras, I. T.; Chronis, T. G.

2012-04-01

Extreme precipitation events are always associated with convective weather conditions driving to intense lightning activity: Cloud to Ground (CG), Ground to Cloud (GC) and Cloud to Cloud (CC). Thus, the study of lightnings, which typically occur during thunderstorms, gives evidence of the spatio-temporal variability of intense precipitation. Lightning is a natural phenomenon in the atmosphere, being a major cause of storm related with deaths and main trigger of forest fires during dry season. Lightning affects the many electrochemical systems of the body causing nerve damage, memory loss, personality change, and emotional problems. Besides, among the various nitrogen oxides sources, the contribution from lightning likely represents the largest uncertainty. An operational lightning detection network (LDN) has been established since 2007 by HNMS, consisting of eight time-of-arrival sensors (TOA), spatially distributed across Greek territory. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability of recorded lightnings (CG, GC and CC) are analyzed over Greece, during the period from January 14, 2008 to December 31, 2009, for the first time. The data for retrieving the location and time-of-occurrence of lightning were acquired from Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS). In addition to the analysis of spatio-temporal activity over Greece, the HNMS-LDN characteristics are also presented. The results of the performed analysis reveal the specific geographical sub-regions associated with lightnings incidence. Lightning activity occurs mainly during the autumn season, followed by summer and spring. Higher frequencies of flashes appear over Ionian and Aegean Sea than over land during winter period against continental mountainous regions during summer period.

Spatio-temporal diffusion of dynamic PET images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tauber, C.; Stute, S.; Chau, M.; Spiteri, P.; Chalon, S.; Guilloteau, D.; Buvat, I.

2011-10-01

Positron emission tomography (PET) images are corrupted by noise. This is especially true in dynamic PET imaging where short frames are required to capture the peak of activity concentration after the radiotracer injection. High noise results in a possible bias in quantification, as the compartmental models used to estimate the kinetic parameters are sensitive to noise. This paper describes a new post-reconstruction filter to increase the signal-to-noise ratio in dynamic PET imaging. It consists in a spatio-temporal robust diffusion of the 4D image based on the time activity curve (TAC) in each voxel. It reduces the noise in homogeneous areas while preserving the distinct kinetics in regions of interest corresponding to different underlying physiological processes. Neither anatomical priors nor the kinetic model are required. We propose an automatic selection of the scale parameter involved in the diffusion process based on a robust statistical analysis of the distances between TACs. The method is evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations of brain activity distributions. We demonstrate the usefulness of the method and its superior performance over two other post-reconstruction spatial and temporal filters. Our simulations suggest that the proposed method can be used to significantly increase the signal-to-noise ratio in dynamic PET imaging.

Spatio-temporal distribution of energy radiation from low frequency tremor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maeda, T.; Obara, K.

2007-12-01

iteratively. As a first application of our method, we estimated the spatio-temporal distribution of energy radiation for 2006 May episodic tremor and slip event occurred in western Shikoku, Japan, region. Tremor location and their radiated energy are estimated for every 1 minute. We counted the number of located LFTs and summed up their total energy at each grid having 0.05-degree spacing at each day to figure out the spatio-temporal distribution of energy release of tremors. The resultant spatial distribution of radiated energy is concentrated at a specific region. Additionally, we see the daily change of released energy, both of location and amount, which corresponds to the migration of tremor activity. The spatio-temporal distribution of energy radiation of tremors is in good agreement with a spatio-temporal slip distribution of slow slip event estimated from Hi-net tiltmeter record (Hirose et al. 2007). This suggests that small continuous tremors occur associated with a rupture process of slow slip.

Factors Related to Rape Reporting Behavior in Brazil: Examining the Role of Spatio-Temporal Factors.

PubMed

Melo, Silas Nogueira de; Beauregard, Eric; Andresen, Martin A

2016-07-01

The reporting of rape to police is an important component of this crime to have the criminal justice system involved and, potentially, punish offenders. However, for a number of reasons (fear of retribution, self-blame, etc.), most rapes are not reported to police. Most often, the research investigating this phenomenon considers incident and victim factors with little attention to the spatio-temporal factors of the rape. In this study, we consider incident, victim, and spatio-temporal factors relating to rape reporting in Campinas, Brazil. Our primary research question is whether or not the spatio-temporal factors play a significant role in the reporting of rape, over and above incident and victim factors. The subjects under study are women who were admitted to the Women's Integrated Healthcare Center at the State University of Campinas, Brazil, and surveyed by a psychologist or a social worker. Rape reporting to police was measured using a dichotomous variable. Logistic regression was used to predict the probability of rape reporting based on incident, victim, and spatio-temporal factors. Although we find that incident and victim factors matter for rape reporting, spatio-temporal factors (rape/home location and whether the rape was in a private or public place) play an important role in rape reporting, similar to the literature that considers these factors. This result has significant implications for sexual violence education. Only when we know why women decide not to report a rape may we begin to work on strategies to overcome these hurdles.

Joint Spatio-Temporal Shared Component Model with an Application in Iran Cancer Data

PubMed

Mahaki, Behzad; Mehrabi, Yadollah; Kavousi, Amir; Schmid, Volker J

2018-06-25

Background: Among the proposals for joint disease mapping, the shared component model has become more popular. Another advance to strengthen inference of disease data is the extension of purely spatial models to include time aspect. We aim to combine the idea of multivariate shared components with spatio-temporal modelling in a joint disease mapping model and apply it for incidence rates of seven prevalent cancers in Iran which together account for approximately 50% of all cancers. Methods: In the proposed model, each component is shared by different subsets of diseases, spatial and temporal trends are considered for each component, and the relative weight of these trends for each component for each relevant disease can be estimated. Results: For esophagus and stomach cancers the Northern provinces was the area of high risk. For colorectal cancer Gilan, Semnan, Fars, Isfahan, Yazd and East-Azerbaijan were the highest risk provinces. For bladder and lung cancer, the northwest were the highest risk area. For prostate and breast cancers, Isfahan, Yazd, Fars, Tehran, Semnan, Mazandaran and Khorasane-Razavi were the highest risk part. The smoking component, shared by esophagus, stomach, bladder and lung, had more effect in Gilan, Mazandaran, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Kohgilouyeh and Boyerahmad, Ardebil and Tehran provinces, in turn. For overweight and obesity component, shared by esophagus, colorectal, prostate and breast cancers the largest effect was found for Tehran, Khorasane-Razavi, Semnan, Yazd, Isfahan, Fars, Mazandaran and Gilan, in turn. For low physical activity component, shared by colorectal and breast cancers North-Khorasan, Ardebil, Golestan, Ilam, Khorasane-Razavi and South-Khorasan had the largest effects, in turn. The smoking component is significantly more important for stomach than for esophagus, bladder and lung. The overweight and obesity had significantly more effect for colorectal than of esophagus cancer. Conclusions: The presented model is a

RSS Fingerprint Based Indoor Localization Using Sparse Representation with Spatio-Temporal Constraint

PubMed Central

Piao, Xinglin; Zhang, Yong; Li, Tingshu; Hu, Yongli; Liu, Hao; Zhang, Ke; Ge, Yun

2016-01-01

The Received Signal Strength (RSS) fingerprint-based indoor localization is an important research topic in wireless network communications. Most current RSS fingerprint-based indoor localization methods do not explore and utilize the spatial or temporal correlation existing in fingerprint data and measurement data, which is helpful for improving localization accuracy. In this paper, we propose an RSS fingerprint-based indoor localization method by integrating the spatio-temporal constraints into the sparse representation model. The proposed model utilizes the inherent spatial correlation of fingerprint data in the fingerprint matching and uses the temporal continuity of the RSS measurement data in the localization phase. Experiments on the simulated data and the localization tests in the real scenes show that the proposed method improves the localization accuracy and stability effectively compared with state-of-the-art indoor localization methods. PMID:27827882

A full time-domain approach to spatio-temporal dynamics of semiconductor lasers. II. Spatio-temporal dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Böhringer, Klaus; Hess, Ortwin

The spatio-temporal dynamics of novel semiconductor lasers is discussed on the basis of a space- and momentum-dependent full time-domain approach. To this means the space-, time-, and momentum-dependent Full-Time Domain Maxwell Semiconductor Bloch equations, derived and discussed in our preceding paper I [K. Böhringer, O. Hess, A full time-domain approach to spatio-temporal dynamics of semiconductor lasers. I. Theoretical formulation], are solved by direct numerical integration. Focussing on the device physics of novel semiconductor lasers that profit, in particular, from recent advances in nanoscience and nanotechnology, we discuss the examples of photonic band edge surface emitting lasers (PBE-SEL) and semiconductor disc lasers (SDLs). It is demonstrated that photonic crystal effects can be obtained for finite crystal structures, and leading to a significant improvement in laser performance such as reduced lasing thresholds. In SDLs, a modern device concept designed to increase the power output of surface-emitters in combination with near-diffraction-limited beam quality, we explore the complex interplay between the intracavity optical fields and the quantum well gain material in SDL structures. Our simulations reveal the dynamical balance between carrier generation due to pumping into high energy states, momentum relaxation of carriers, and stimulated recombination from states near the band edge. Our full time-domain approach is shown to also be an excellent framework for the modelling of the interaction of high-intensity femtosecond and picosecond pulses with semiconductor nanostructures. It is demonstrated that group velocity dispersion, dynamical gain saturation and fast self-phase modulation (SPM) are the main causes for the induced changes and asymmetries in the amplified pulse shape and spectrum of an ultrashort high-intensity pulse. We attest that the time constants of the intraband scattering processes are critical to gain recovery. Moreover, we present

Dynamic Bayesian network modeling for longitudinal brain morphometry

PubMed Central

Chen, Rong; Resnick, Susan M; Davatzikos, Christos; Herskovits, Edward H

2011-01-01

Identifying interactions among brain regions from structural magnetic-resonance images presents one of the major challenges in computational neuroanatomy. We propose a Bayesian data-mining approach to the detection of longitudinal morphological changes in the human brain. Our method uses a dynamic Bayesian network to represent evolving inter-regional dependencies. The major advantage of dynamic Bayesian network modeling is that it can represent complicated interactions among temporal processes. We validated our approach by analyzing a simulated atrophy study, and found that this approach requires only a small number of samples to detect the ground-truth temporal model. We further applied dynamic Bayesian network modeling to a longitudinal study of normal aging and mild cognitive impairment — the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging. We found that interactions among regional volume-change rates for the mild cognitive impairment group are different from those for the normal-aging group. PMID:21963916

Demand-supply dynamics in tourism systems: A spatio-temporal GIS analysis. The Alberta ski industry case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertazzon, Stefania

The present research focuses on the interaction of supply and demand of down-hill ski tourism in the province of Alberta. The main hypothesis is that the demand for skiing depends on the socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the population living in the province and outside it. A second, consequent hypothesis is that the development of ski resorts (supply) is a response to the demand for skiing. From the latter derives the hypothesis of a dynamic interaction between supply (ski resorts) and demand (skiers). Such interaction occurs in space, within a range determined by physical distance and the means available to overcome it. The above hypotheses implicitly define interactions that take place in space and evolve over time. The hypotheses are tested by temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal regression models, using the best available data and the latest commercially available software. The main purpose of this research is to explore analytical techniques to model spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal dynamics in the context of regional science. The completion of the present research has produced more significant contributions than was originally expected. Many of the unexpected contributions resulted from theoretical and applied needs arising from the application of spatial regression models. Spatial regression models are a new and largely under-applied technique. The models are fairly complex and a considerable amount of preparatory work is needed, prior to their specification and estimation. Most of this work is specific to the field of application. The originality of the solutions devised is increased by the lack of applications in the field of tourism. The scarcity of applications in other fields adds to their value for other applications. The estimation of spatio-temporal models has been only partially attained in the present research. This apparent limitation is due to the novelty and complexity of the analytical methods applied. This opens new

Spatio-temporally resolved spectral measurements of laser-produced plasma and semiautomated spectral measurement-control and analysis software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, S. Q.; Su, M. G.; Min, Q.; Sun, D. X.; O'Sullivan, G.; Dong, C. Z.

2018-02-01

A spatio-temporally resolved spectral measurement system of highly charged ions from laser-produced plasmas is presented. Corresponding semiautomated computer software for measurement control and spectral analysis has been written to achieve the best synchronicity possible among the instruments. This avoids the tedious comparative processes between experimental and theoretical results. To demonstrate the capabilities of this system, a series of spatio-temporally resolved experiments of laser-produced Al plasmas have been performed and applied to benchmark the software. The system is a useful tool for studying the spectral structures of highly charged ions and for evaluating the spatio-temporal evolution of laser-produced plasmas.

Network-constrained spatio-temporal clustering analysis of traffic collisions in Jianghan District of Wuhan, China

PubMed Central

Fan, Yaxin; Zhu, Xinyan; Guo, Wei; Guo, Tao

2018-01-01

The analysis of traffic collisions is essential for urban safety and the sustainable development of the urban environment. Reducing the road traffic injuries and the financial losses caused by collisions is the most important goal of traffic management. In addition, traffic collisions are a major cause of traffic congestion, which is a serious issue that affects everyone in the society. Therefore, traffic collision analysis is essential for all parties, including drivers, pedestrians, and traffic officers, to understand the road risks at a finer spatio-temporal scale. However, traffic collisions in the urban context are dynamic and complex. Thus, it is important to detect how the collision hotspots evolve over time through spatio-temporal clustering analysis. In addition, traffic collisions are not isolated events in space. The characteristics of the traffic collisions and their surrounding locations also present an influence of the clusters. This work tries to explore the spatio-temporal clustering patterns of traffic collisions by combining a set of network-constrained methods. These methods were tested using the traffic collision data in Jianghan District of Wuhan, China. The results demonstrated that these methods offer different perspectives of the spatio-temporal clustering patterns. The weighted network kernel density estimation provides an intuitive way to incorporate attribute information. The network cross K-function shows that there are varying clustering tendencies between traffic collisions and different types of POIs. The proposed network differential Local Moran’s I and network local indicators of mobility association provide straightforward and quantitative measures of the hotspot changes. This case study shows that these methods could help researchers, practitioners, and policy-makers to better understand the spatio-temporal clustering patterns of traffic collisions. PMID:29672551

Zebrafish: an exciting model for investigating the spatio-temporal pattern of enteric nervous system development.

PubMed

Doodnath, Reshma; Dervan, Adrian; Wride, Michael A; Puri, Prem

2010-12-01

Recently, the zebrafish (Danio rerio) has been shown to be an excellent model for human paediatric research. Advantages over other models include its small size, externally visually accessible development and ease of experimental manipulation. The enteric nervous system (ENS) consists of neurons and enteric glia. Glial cells permit cell bodies and processes of neurons to be arranged and maintained in a proper spatial arrangement, and are essential in the maintenance of basic physiological functions of neurons. Glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) is expressed in astrocytes, but also expressed outside of the central nervous system. The aim of this study was to investigate the spatio-temporal pattern of GFAP expression in developing zebrafish ENS from 24 h post-fertilization (hpf), using transgenic fish that express green fluorescent protein (GFP). Zebrafish embryos were collected from transgenic GFP Tg(GFAP:GFP)(mi2001) adult zebrafish from 24 to 120 hpf, fixed and processed for whole mount immunohistochemistry. Antibodies to Phox2b were used to identify enteric neurons. Specimens were mounted on slides and imaging was performed using a fluorescent laser confocal microscope. GFAP:GFP labelling outside the spinal cord was identified in embryos from 48 hpf. The patterning was intracellular and consisted of elongated profiles that appeared to migrate away from the spinal cord into the periphery. At 72 and 96 hpf, GFAP:GFP was expressed dorsally and ventrally to the intestinal tract. At 120 hpf, GFAP:GFP was expressed throughout the intestinal wall, and clusters of enteric neurons were identified using Phox2b immunofluorescence along the pathway of GFAP:GFP positive processes, indicative of a migratory pathway of ENS precursors from the spinal cord into the intestine. The pattern of migration of GFAP:GFP expressing cells outside the spinal cord suggests an organized, early developing migratory pathway to the ENS. This shows for the first time that Tg(GFAP:GFP)(mi2001

Spatio-Temporal Equalizer for a Receiving-Antenna Feed Array

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mukai, Ryan; Lee, Dennis; Vilnrotter, Victor

2010-01-01

A spatio-temporal equalizer has been conceived as an improved means of suppressing multipath effects in the reception of aeronautical telemetry signals, and may be adaptable to radar and aeronautical communication applications as well. This equalizer would be an integral part of a system that would also include a seven-element planar array of receiving feed horns centered at the focal point of a paraboloidal antenna that would be nominally aimed at or near the aircraft that would be the source of the signal that one seeks to receive (see Figure 1). This spatio-temporal equalizer would consist mostly of a bank of seven adaptive finite-impulse-response (FIR) filters one for each element in the array - and the outputs of the filters would be summed (see Figure 2). The combination of the spatial diversity of the feedhorn array and the temporal diversity of the filter bank would afford better multipath-suppression performance than is achievable by means of temporal equalization alone. The seven-element feed array would supplant the single feed horn used in a conventional paraboloidal ground telemetry-receiving antenna. The radio-frequency telemetry signals re ceiv ed by the seven elements of the array would be digitized, converted to complex baseband form, and sent to the FIR filter bank, which would adapt itself in real time to enable reception of telemetry at a low bit error rate, even in the presence of multipath of the type found at many flight test ranges.

Spatio-temporal filtering techniques for the detection of disaster-related communication.

PubMed

Fitzhugh, Sean M; Ben Gibson, C; Spiro, Emma S; Butts, Carter T

2016-09-01

Individuals predominantly exchange information with one another through informal, interpersonal channels. During disasters and other disrupted settings, information spread through informal channels regularly outpaces official information provided by public officials and the press. Social scientists have long examined this kind of informal communication in the rumoring literature, but studying rumoring in disrupted settings has posed numerous methodological challenges. Measuring features of informal communication-timing, content, location-with any degree of precision has historically been extremely challenging in small studies and infeasible at large scales. We address this challenge by using online, informal communication from a popular microblogging website and for which we have precise spatial and temporal metadata. While the online environment provides a new means for observing rumoring, the abundance of data poses challenges for parsing hazard-related rumoring from countless other topics in numerous streams of communication. Rumoring about disaster events is typically temporally and spatially constrained to places where that event is salient. Accordingly, we use spatio and temporal subsampling to increase the resolution of our detection techniques. By filtering out data from known sources of error (per rumor theories), we greatly enhance the signal of disaster-related rumoring activity. We use these spatio-temporal filtering techniques to detect rumoring during a variety of disaster events, from high-casualty events in major population centers to minimally destructive events in remote areas. We consistently find three phases of response: anticipatory excitation where warnings and alerts are issued ahead of an event, primary excitation in and around the impacted area, and secondary excitation which frequently brings a convergence of attention from distant locales onto locations impacted by the event. Our results demonstrate the promise of spatio-temporal

Rumor diffusion model with spatio-temporal diffusion and uncertainty of behavior decision in complex social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Liang; Wang, Youguo

2018-07-01

In this paper, a rumor diffusion model with uncertainty of human behavior under spatio-temporal diffusion framework is established. Take physical significance of spatial diffusion into account, a diffusion threshold is set under which the rumor is not a trend topic and only spreads along determined physical connections. Heterogeneity of degree distribution and distance distribution has also been considered in theoretical model at the same time. The global existence and uniqueness of classical solution are proved with a Lyapunov function and an approximate classical solution in form of infinite series is constructed with a system of eigenfunction. Simulations and numerical solutions both on Watts-Strogatz (WS) network and Barabási-Albert (BA) network display the variation of density of infected connections from spatial and temporal dimensions. Relevant results show that the density of infected connections is dominated by network topology and uncertainty of human behavior at threshold time. With increase of social capability, rumor diffuses to the steady state in a higher speed. And the variation trends of diffusion size with uncertainty are diverse on different artificial networks.

Stability Switches, Hopf Bifurcations, and Spatio-temporal Patterns in a Delayed Neural Model with Bidirectional Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Yongli; Zhang, Tonghua; Tadé, Moses O.

2009-12-01

The dynamical behavior of a delayed neural network with bi-directional coupling is investigated by taking the delay as the bifurcating parameter. Some parameter regions are given for conditional/absolute stability and Hopf bifurcations by using the theory of functional differential equations. As the propagation time delay in the coupling varies, stability switches for the trivial solution are found. Conditions ensuring the stability and direction of the Hopf bifurcation are determined by applying the normal form theory and the center manifold theorem. We also discuss the spatio-temporal patterns of bifurcating periodic oscillations by using the symmetric bifurcation theory of delay differential equations combined with representation theory of Lie groups. In particular, we obtain that the spatio-temporal patterns of bifurcating periodic oscillations will alternate according to the change of the propagation time delay in the coupling, i.e., different ranges of delays correspond to different patterns of neural activities. Numerical simulations are given to illustrate the obtained results and show the existence of bursts in some interval of the time for large enough delay.

Localized Spatio-Temporal Constraints for Accelerated CMR Perfusion

PubMed Central

Akçakaya, Mehmet; Basha, Tamer A.; Pflugi, Silvio; Foppa, Murilo; Kissinger, Kraig V.; Hauser, Thomas H.; Nezafat, Reza

2013-01-01

Purpose To develop and evaluate an image reconstruction technique for cardiac MRI (CMR)perfusion that utilizes localized spatio-temporal constraints. Methods CMR perfusion plays an important role in detecting myocardial ischemia in patients with coronary artery disease. Breath-hold k-t based image acceleration techniques are typically used in CMR perfusion for superior spatial/temporal resolution, and improved coverage. In this study, we propose a novel compressed sensing based image reconstruction technique for CMR perfusion, with applicability to free-breathing examinations. This technique uses local spatio-temporal constraints by regularizing image patches across a small number of dynamics. The technique is compared to conventional dynamic-by-dynamic reconstruction, and sparsity regularization using a temporal principal-component (pc) basis, as well as zerofilled data in multi-slice 2D and 3D CMR perfusion. Qualitative image scores are used (1=poor, 4=excellent) to evaluate the technique in 3D perfusion in 10 patients and 5 healthy subjects. On 4 healthy subjects, the proposed technique was also compared to a breath-hold multi-slice 2D acquisition with parallel imaging in terms of signal intensity curves. Results The proposed technique results in images that are superior in terms of spatial and temporal blurring compared to the other techniques, even in free-breathing datasets. The image scores indicate a significant improvement compared to other techniques in 3D perfusion (2.8±0.5 vs. 2.3±0.5 for x-pc regularization, 1.7±0.5 for dynamic-by-dynamic, 1.1±0.2 for zerofilled). Signal intensity curves indicate similar dynamics of uptake between the proposed method with a 3D acquisition and the breath-hold multi-slice 2D acquisition with parallel imaging. Conclusion The proposed reconstruction utilizes sparsity regularization based on localized information in both spatial and temporal domains for highly-accelerated CMR perfusion with potential utility in free

Conduction Delay Learning Model for Unsupervised and Supervised Classification of Spatio-Temporal Spike Patterns.

PubMed

Matsubara, Takashi

2017-01-01

Precise spike timing is considered to play a fundamental role in communications and signal processing in biological neural networks. Understanding the mechanism of spike timing adjustment would deepen our understanding of biological systems and enable advanced engineering applications such as efficient computational architectures. However, the biological mechanisms that adjust and maintain spike timing remain unclear. Existing algorithms adopt a supervised approach, which adjusts the axonal conduction delay and synaptic efficacy until the spike timings approximate the desired timings. This study proposes a spike timing-dependent learning model that adjusts the axonal conduction delay and synaptic efficacy in both unsupervised and supervised manners. The proposed learning algorithm approximates the Expectation-Maximization algorithm, and classifies the input data encoded into spatio-temporal spike patterns. Even in the supervised classification, the algorithm requires no external spikes indicating the desired spike timings unlike existing algorithms. Furthermore, because the algorithm is consistent with biological models and hypotheses found in existing biological studies, it could capture the mechanism underlying biological delay learning.

A Four Dimensional Spatio-Temporal Analysis of an Agricultural Dataset

PubMed Central

Donald, Margaret R.; Mengersen, Kerrie L.; Young, Rick R.

2015-01-01

While a variety of statistical models now exist for the spatio-temporal analysis of two-dimensional (surface) data collected over time, there are few published examples of analogous models for the spatial analysis of data taken over four dimensions: latitude, longitude, height or depth, and time. When taking account of the autocorrelation of data within and between dimensions, the notion of closeness often differs for each of the dimensions. Here, we consider a number of approaches to the analysis of such a dataset, which arises from an agricultural experiment exploring the impact of different cropping systems on soil moisture. The proposed models vary in their representation of the spatial correlation in the data, the assumed temporal pattern and choice of conditional autoregressive (CAR) and other priors. In terms of the substantive question, we find that response cropping is generally more effective than long fallow cropping in reducing soil moisture at the depths considered (100 cm to 220 cm). Thus, if we wish to reduce the possibility of deep drainage and increased groundwater salinity, the recommended cropping system is response cropping. PMID:26513746

Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Barmah Forest Virus Disease in Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

Naish, Suchithra; Hu, Wenbiao; Mengersen, Kerrie; Tong, Shilu

2011-01-01

Background Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is a common and wide-spread mosquito-borne disease in Australia. This study investigated the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia using geographical information system (GIS) tools and geostatistical analysis. Methods/Principal Findings We calculated the incidence rates and standardised incidence rates of BFV disease. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidences. Spatial dynamics of BFV disease was examined using semi-variogram analysis. Interpolation techniques were applied to visualise and display the spatial distribution of BFV disease in statistical local areas (SLAs) throughout Queensland. Mapping of BFV disease by SLAs reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time. Statistically significant differences in BFV incidence rates were identified among age groups (χ2 = 7587, df = 7327,p<0.01). There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidence for all four periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.1506 to 0.2901 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. Conclusions/Significance This is the first study to examine spatial and temporal variation in the incidence rates of BFV disease across Queensland using GIS and geostatistics. The BFV transmission varied with age and gender, which may be due to exposure rates or behavioural risk factors. There are differences in the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease which may be related to local socio-ecological and environmental factors. These research findings may have implications in the BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland. PMID:22022430

Spatio-temporal patterns of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Naish, Suchithra; Hu, Wenbiao; Mengersen, Kerrie; Tong, Shilu

2011-01-01

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is a common and wide-spread mosquito-borne disease in Australia. This study investigated the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia using geographical information system (GIS) tools and geostatistical analysis. We calculated the incidence rates and standardised incidence rates of BFV disease. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidences. Spatial dynamics of BFV disease was examined using semi-variogram analysis. Interpolation techniques were applied to visualise and display the spatial distribution of BFV disease in statistical local areas (SLAs) throughout Queensland. Mapping of BFV disease by SLAs reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time. Statistically significant differences in BFV incidence rates were identified among age groups (χ(2) = 7587, df = 7327,p<0.01). There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidence for all four periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.1506 to 0.2901 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. This is the first study to examine spatial and temporal variation in the incidence rates of BFV disease across Queensland using GIS and geostatistics. The BFV transmission varied with age and gender, which may be due to exposure rates or behavioural risk factors. There are differences in the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease which may be related to local socio-ecological and environmental factors. These research findings may have implications in the BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Radiation dose reduction in computed tomography perfusion using spatial-temporal Bayesian methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Ruogu; Raj, Ashish; Chen, Tsuhan; Sanelli, Pina C.

2012-03-01

In current computed tomography (CT) examinations, the associated X-ray radiation dose is of significant concern to patients and operators, especially CT perfusion (CTP) imaging that has higher radiation dose due to its cine scanning technique. A simple and cost-effective means to perform the examinations is to lower the milliampere-seconds (mAs) parameter as low as reasonably achievable in data acquisition. However, lowering the mAs parameter will unavoidably increase data noise and degrade CT perfusion maps greatly if no adequate noise control is applied during image reconstruction. To capture the essential dynamics of CT perfusion, a simple spatial-temporal Bayesian method that uses a piecewise parametric model of the residual function is used, and then the model parameters are estimated from a Bayesian formulation of prior smoothness constraints on perfusion parameters. From the fitted residual function, reliable CTP parameter maps are obtained from low dose CT data. The merit of this scheme exists in the combination of analytical piecewise residual function with Bayesian framework using a simpler prior spatial constrain for CT perfusion application. On a dataset of 22 patients, this dynamic spatial-temporal Bayesian model yielded an increase in signal-tonoise-ratio (SNR) of 78% and a decrease in mean-square-error (MSE) of 40% at low dose radiation of 43mA.

Cortical Spatio-Temporal Dynamics Underlying Phonological Target Detection in Humans

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chang, Edward F.; Edwards, Erik; Nagarajan, Srikantan S.; Fogelson, Noa; Dalal, Sarang S.; Canolty, Ryan T.; Kirsch, Heidi E.; Barbaro, Nicholas M.; Knight, Robert T.

2011-01-01

Selective processing of task-relevant stimuli is critical for goal-directed behavior. We used electrocorticography to assess the spatio-temporal dynamics of cortical activation during a simple phonological target detection task, in which subjects press a button when a prespecified target syllable sound is heard. Simultaneous surface potential…

Assessing spatio-temporal variability and trends in modelled and measured Greenland Ice Sheet albedo (2000-2013)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, P. M.; Tedesco, M.; Fettweis, X.; van de Wal, R. S. W.; Smeets, C. J. P. P.; van den Broeke, M. R.

2014-12-01

Accurate measurements and simulations of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface albedo are essential, given the role of surface albedo in modulating the amount of absorbed solar radiation and meltwater production. In this study, we assess the spatio-temporal variability of GrIS albedo during June, July, and August (JJA) for the period 2000-2013. We use two remote sensing products derived from data collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), as well as outputs from the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR) regional climate model (RCM) and data from in situ automatic weather stations. Our results point to an overall consistency in spatio-temporal variability between remote sensing and RCM albedo, but reveal a difference in mean albedo of up to ~0.08 between the two remote sensing products north of 70° N. At low elevations, albedo values simulated by the RCM are positively biased with respect to remote sensing products by up to ~0.1 and exhibit low variability compared with observations. We infer that these differences are the result of a positive bias in simulated bare ice albedo. MODIS albedo, RCM outputs, and in situ observations consistently indicate a decrease in albedo of -0.03 to -0.06 per decade over the period 2003-2013 for the GrIS ablation area. Nevertheless, satellite products show a decline in JJA albedo of -0.03 to -0.04 per decade for regions within the accumulation area that is not confirmed by either the model or in situ observations. These findings appear to contradict a previous study that found an agreement between in situ and MODIS trends for individual months. The results indicate a need for further evaluation of high elevation albedo trends, a reconciliation of MODIS mean albedo at high latitudes, and the importance of accurately simulating bare ice albedo in RCMs.

Spatio-Temporal Data Analysis at Scale Using Models Based on Gaussian Processes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stein, Michael

Gaussian processes are the most commonly used statistical model for spatial and spatio-temporal processes that vary continuously. They are broadly applicable in the physical sciences and engineering and are also frequently used to approximate the output of complex computer models, deterministic or stochastic. We undertook research related to theory, computation, and applications of Gaussian processes as well as some work on estimating extremes of distributions for which a Gaussian process assumption might be inappropriate. Our theoretical contributions include the development of new classes of spatial-temporal covariance functions with desirable properties and new results showing that certain covariance models lead tomore » predictions with undesirable properties. To understand how Gaussian process models behave when applied to deterministic computer models, we derived what we believe to be the first significant results on the large sample properties of estimators of parameters of Gaussian processes when the actual process is a simple deterministic function. Finally, we investigated some theoretical issues related to maxima of observations with varying upper bounds and found that, depending on the circumstances, standard large sample results for maxima may or may not hold. Our computational innovations include methods for analyzing large spatial datasets when observations fall on a partially observed grid and methods for estimating parameters of a Gaussian process model from observations taken by a polar-orbiting satellite. In our application of Gaussian process models to deterministic computer experiments, we carried out some matrix computations that would have been infeasible using even extended precision arithmetic by focusing on special cases in which all elements of the matrices under study are rational and using exact arithmetic. The applications we studied include total column ozone as measured from a polar-orbiting satellite, sea surface temperatures over

A geomatic methodology for spatio-temporal analysis of climatologic variables and water related diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quentin, E.; Gómez Albores, M. A.; Díaz Delgado, C.

2009-04-01

The main objective of this research is to propose, by the way of geomatic developments, an integrated tool to analyze and model the spatio-temporal pattern of human diseases related to environmental conditions, in particular the ones that are linked to water resources. The geomatic developments follows four generic steps : requirement analysis, conceptual modeling, geomatic modeling and implementation (in Idrisi GIS software). A first development consists of the preprocessing of water, population and health data in order to facilitate the conversion and validation of tabular data into the required structure for spatio-temporal analysis. Three parallel developments follow : water balance, demographic state and evolution, epidemiological measures (morbidity and mortality rates, diseases burden). The new geomatic modules in their actual state have been tested on various regions of Mexico Republic (Lerma watershed, Chiapas state) focusing on diarrhea and vector borne diseases (dengue and malaria) and considering records over the last decade : a yearly as well as seasonal spreading trend can be observed in correlation with precipitation and temperature data. In an ecohealth perspective, the geomatic approach results particularly appropriate since one of its purposes is the integration of the various spatial themes implied in the study problem, environmental as anthropogenic. By the use of powerful spatial analysis functions, it permits the detection of spatial trends which, combined to the temporal evolution, can be of particularly use for example in climate change context, if sufficiently valid historical data can be obtain.

Comparison of deep neural networks to spatio-temporal cortical dynamics of human visual object recognition reveals hierarchical correspondence

PubMed Central

Cichy, Radoslaw Martin; Khosla, Aditya; Pantazis, Dimitrios; Torralba, Antonio; Oliva, Aude

2016-01-01

The complex multi-stage architecture of cortical visual pathways provides the neural basis for efficient visual object recognition in humans. However, the stage-wise computations therein remain poorly understood. Here, we compared temporal (magnetoencephalography) and spatial (functional MRI) visual brain representations with representations in an artificial deep neural network (DNN) tuned to the statistics of real-world visual recognition. We showed that the DNN captured the stages of human visual processing in both time and space from early visual areas towards the dorsal and ventral streams. Further investigation of crucial DNN parameters revealed that while model architecture was important, training on real-world categorization was necessary to enforce spatio-temporal hierarchical relationships with the brain. Together our results provide an algorithmically informed view on the spatio-temporal dynamics of visual object recognition in the human visual brain. PMID:27282108

Comparison of deep neural networks to spatio-temporal cortical dynamics of human visual object recognition reveals hierarchical correspondence.

PubMed

Cichy, Radoslaw Martin; Khosla, Aditya; Pantazis, Dimitrios; Torralba, Antonio; Oliva, Aude

2016-06-10

The complex multi-stage architecture of cortical visual pathways provides the neural basis for efficient visual object recognition in humans. However, the stage-wise computations therein remain poorly understood. Here, we compared temporal (magnetoencephalography) and spatial (functional MRI) visual brain representations with representations in an artificial deep neural network (DNN) tuned to the statistics of real-world visual recognition. We showed that the DNN captured the stages of human visual processing in both time and space from early visual areas towards the dorsal and ventral streams. Further investigation of crucial DNN parameters revealed that while model architecture was important, training on real-world categorization was necessary to enforce spatio-temporal hierarchical relationships with the brain. Together our results provide an algorithmically informed view on the spatio-temporal dynamics of visual object recognition in the human visual brain.

Bayesian modeling of flexible cognitive control

PubMed Central

Jiang, Jiefeng; Heller, Katherine; Egner, Tobias

2014-01-01

“Cognitive control” describes endogenous guidance of behavior in situations where routine stimulus-response associations are suboptimal for achieving a desired goal. The computational and neural mechanisms underlying this capacity remain poorly understood. We examine recent advances stemming from the application of a Bayesian learner perspective that provides optimal prediction for control processes. In reviewing the application of Bayesian models to cognitive control, we note that an important limitation in current models is a lack of a plausible mechanism for the flexible adjustment of control over conflict levels changing at varying temporal scales. We then show that flexible cognitive control can be achieved by a Bayesian model with a volatility-driven learning mechanism that modulates dynamically the relative dependence on recent and remote experiences in its prediction of future control demand. We conclude that the emergent Bayesian perspective on computational mechanisms of cognitive control holds considerable promise, especially if future studies can identify neural substrates of the variables encoded by these models, and determine the nature (Bayesian or otherwise) of their neural implementation. PMID:24929218

Spatio-temporal variability of ichthyophagous bird assemblage around western Mediterranean open-sea cage fish farms.

PubMed

Aguado-Giménez, Felipe; Eguía-Martínez, Sergio; Cerezo-Valverde, Jesús; García-García, Benjamín

2018-06-14

Ichthyophagous birds aggregate at cage fish farms attracted by caged and associated wild fish. Spatio-temporal variability of such birds was studied for a year through seasonal visual counts at eight farms in the western Mediterranean. Correlation with farm and location descriptors was assessed. Considerable spatio-temporal variability in fish-eating bird density and assemblage structure was observed among farms and seasons. Bird density increased from autumn to winter, with the great cormorant being the most abundant species, also accounting largely for differences among farms. Grey heron and little egret were also numerous at certain farms during the coldest seasons. Cattle egret was only observed at one farm. No shags were observed during winter. During spring and summer, bird density decreased markedly and only shags and little egrets were observed at only a few farms. Season and distance from farms to bird breeding/wintering grounds helped to explain some of the spatio-temporal variability. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatio-Temporal Simulation and Analysis of Regional Ecological Security Based on Lstm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, C.; Qi, L.; Heming, L.; Karimian, H.; Yuqin, M.

2017-10-01

Region is a complicated system, where human, nature and society interact and influence. Quantitative modeling and simulation of ecology in the region are the key to realize the strategy of regional sustainable development. Traditional machine learning methods have made some achievements in the modeling of regional ecosystems, but it is difficult to determine the learning characteristics and to realize spatio-temporal simulation. Deep learning does not need prior identification of training characteristics, have excellent feature learning ability, can improve the accuracy of model prediction, so the use of deep learning model has a significant advantage. Therefore, we use net primary productivity (NPP), atmospheric optical depth (AOD), moderate-resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), landcover and population data, and use LSTM to do spatio-temporal simulation. We conduct spatial analysis and driving force analysis. The conclusions are as follows: the ecological deficit of northwestern Henan and urban communities such as Zhengzhou is higher. The reason of former lies in the weak land productivity of the Loess Plateau, the irrational crop cultivation mode. The latter lies in the high consumption of resources in the large urban agglomeration; The positive trend of Henan ecological development from 2013 is mainly due to the effective environmental protection policy in the 12th five-year plan; The main driver of the sustained ecological deficit growth of Henan in 2004-2013 is high-speed urbanization, increasing population and goods consumption. This article provides relevant basic scientific support and reference for the regional ecological scientific management and construction.

SPATIO-TEMPORAL MODELING OF AGRICULTURAL YIELD DATA WITH AN APPLICATION TO PRICING CROP INSURANCE CONTRACTS

PubMed Central

Ozaki, Vitor A.; Ghosh, Sujit K.; Goodwin, Barry K.; Shirota, Ricardo

2009-01-01

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Paraná (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited. PMID:19890450

An adaptive spatio-temporal Gaussian filter for processing cardiac optical mapping data.

PubMed

Pollnow, S; Pilia, N; Schwaderlapp, G; Loewe, A; Dössel, O; Lenis, G

2018-06-04

Optical mapping is widely used as a tool to investigate cardiac electrophysiology in ex vivo preparations. Digital filtering of fluorescence-optical data is an important requirement for robust subsequent data analysis and still a challenge when processing data acquired from thin mammalian myocardium. Therefore, we propose and investigate the use of an adaptive spatio-temporal Gaussian filter for processing optical mapping signals from these kinds of tissue usually having low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). We demonstrate how filtering parameters can be chosen automatically without additional user input. For systematic comparison of this filter with standard filtering methods from the literature, we generated synthetic signals representing optical recordings from atrial myocardium of a rat heart with varying SNR. Furthermore, all filter methods were applied to experimental data from an ex vivo setup. Our developed filter outperformed the other filter methods regarding local activation time detection at SNRs smaller than 3 dB which are typical noise ratios expected in these signals. At higher SNRs, the proposed filter performed slightly worse than the methods from literature. In conclusion, the proposed adaptive spatio-temporal Gaussian filter is an appropriate tool for investigating fluorescence-optical data with low SNR. The spatio-temporal filter parameters were automatically adapted in contrast to the other investigated filters. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Low-rank matrix decomposition and spatio-temporal sparse recovery for STAP radar

DOE PAGES

Sen, Satyabrata

2015-08-04

We develop space-time adaptive processing (STAP) methods by leveraging the advantages of sparse signal processing techniques in order to detect a slowly-moving target. We observe that the inherent sparse characteristics of a STAP problem can be formulated as the low-rankness of clutter covariance matrix when compared to the total adaptive degrees-of-freedom, and also as the sparse interference spectrum on the spatio-temporal domain. By exploiting these sparse properties, we propose two approaches for estimating the interference covariance matrix. In the first approach, we consider a constrained matrix rank minimization problem (RMP) to decompose the sample covariance matrix into a low-rank positivemore » semidefinite and a diagonal matrix. The solution of RMP is obtained by applying the trace minimization technique and the singular value decomposition with matrix shrinkage operator. Our second approach deals with the atomic norm minimization problem to recover the clutter response-vector that has a sparse support on the spatio-temporal plane. We use convex relaxation based standard sparse-recovery techniques to find the solutions. With extensive numerical examples, we demonstrate the performances of proposed STAP approaches with respect to both the ideal and practical scenarios, involving Doppler-ambiguous clutter ridges, spatial and temporal decorrelation effects. As a result, the low-rank matrix decomposition based solution requires secondary measurements as many as twice the clutter rank to attain a near-ideal STAP performance; whereas the spatio-temporal sparsity based approach needs a considerably small number of secondary data.« less

Urban heat island effect: A systematic review of spatio-temporal factors, data, methods, and mitigation measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deilami, Kaveh; Kamruzzaman, Md.; Liu, Yan

2018-05-01

Despite research on urban heat island (UHI) effect has increased exponentially over the last few decades, a systematic review of factors contributing to UHI effect has scarcely been reported in the literature. This paper provides a systematic and overarching review of different spatial and temporal factors affecting the UHI effect. UHI is a phenomenon when urban areas experience a higher temperature than their surrounding non-urban areas and is considered as a critical factor contributing to global warming, heat related mortalities, and unpredictable climatic changes. Therefore, there is a pressing need to identify the spatio-temporal factors that contribute to (or mitigate) the UHI effect in order to develop a thorough understanding of their causal mechanism so that these are addressed through urban planning policies. This paper systematically identified 75 eligible studies on UHI effect and reviews the nature and type of satellite images used, the techniques applied to classify land cover/use changes, the models to assess the link between spatio-temporal factors and UHI effect, and the effects of these factors on UHI. The review results show that: a) 54% of the studies used Landsat TM images for modelling the UHI effect followed by Landsat ETM (34%), and MODIS (28%); b) land cover indices (46%), followed by supervised classification (17%) were the dominant methods to derive land cover/use changes associated with UHI effect; c) ordinary least square regression is the most commonly applied method (68%) to investigate the link between different spatio-temporal factors and the UHI effect followed by comparative analysis (33%); and d) the most common factors affecting the UHI effect as reported in the reviewed studies, include vegetation cover (44%), season (33%), built-up area (28%), day/night (25%), population density (14%), water body (12%) together with others. This research discusses the findings in policy terms and provides directions for future research.

Spatio-Temporal Modelling of the Pre-Eruptive Strain Localization in a Volcanic Edifice Using a Maxwell-Elasto-Brittle Rheology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dansereau, V.; Got, J. L.

2017-12-01

Before a volcanic eruption, the pressurization of the volcanic edifice by a magma reservoir induces earthquakes and damage in the edifice; damage lowers the strength of the edifice and decreases its elastic properties. Anelastic deformations cumulate and lead to rupture and eruption. These deformations translate into surface displacements, measurable via GPS or InSAR (e.g., Kilauea, southern flank, or Piton de la Fournaise, eastern flank).Attempts to represent these processes are usually based on a linear-elastic rheology. More recently, linear elastic-perfectly plastic or elastic-brittle damage approaches were used to explain the time evolution of the surface displacements in basaltic volcanoes before an eruption. However these models are non-linear elastic, and can not account for the anelastic deformation that occurs during the pre-eruptive process. Therefore, they can not be used to represent the complete eruptive cycle, comprising loading and unloading phases. Here we present a new rheological approach for modelling the eruptive cycle called Maxwell-Elasto-Brittle, which incorporates a viscous-like relaxation of the stresses in an elastic-brittle damage framework. This mechanism allows accounting for the anelastic deformations that cumulate and lead to rupture and eruption. The inclusion of healing processes in this model is another step towards a complete spatio-temporal representation of the eruptive cycle. Plane-strain Maxwell-EB modelling of the deformation of a magma reservoir and volcanic edifice will be presented. The model represents the propagation of damage towards the surface and the progressive localization of the deformation along faults under the pressurization of the magma reservoir. This model allows a complete spatio-temporal representation of the rupture process. We will also discuss how available seismicity records and time series of surface displacements could be used jointly to constrain the model.

Spatio-Temporal Variation in Landscape Composition May Speed Resistance Evolution of Pests to Bt Crops.

PubMed

Ives, Anthony R; Paull, Cate; Hulthen, Andrew; Downes, Sharon; Andow, David A; Haygood, Ralph; Zalucki, Myron P; Schellhorn, Nancy A

2017-01-01

Transgenic crops that express insecticide genes from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) are used worldwide against moth and beetle pests. Because these engineered plants can kill over 95% of susceptible larvae, they can rapidly select for resistance. Here, we use a model for a pyramid two-toxin Bt crop to explore the consequences of spatio-temporal variation in the area of Bt crop and non-Bt refuge habitat. We show that variability over time in the proportion of suitable non-Bt breeding habitat, Q, or in the total area of Bt and suitable non-Bt habitat, K, can increase the overall rate of resistance evolution by causing short-term surges of intense selection. These surges can be exacerbated when temporal variation in Q and/or K cause high larval densities in refuges that increase density-dependent mortality; this will give resistant larvae in Bt fields a relative advantage over susceptible larvae that largely depend on refuges. We address the effects of spatio-temporal variation in a management setting for two bollworm pests of cotton, Helicoverpa armigera and H. punctigera, and field data on landscape crop distributions from Australia. Even a small proportion of Bt fields available to egg-laying females when refuges are sparse may result in high exposure to Bt for just a single generation per year and cause a surge in selection. Therefore, rapid resistance evolution can occur when Bt crops are rare rather than common in the landscape. These results highlight the need to understand spatio-temporal fluctuations in the landscape composition of Bt crops and non-Bt habitats in order to design effective resistance management strategies.

How can knowledge discovery methods uncover spatio-temporal patterns in environmental data?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wachowicz, Monica

2000-04-01

This paper proposes the integration of KDD, GVis and STDB as a long-term strategy, which will allow users to apply knowledge discovery methods for uncovering spatio-temporal patterns in environmental data. The main goal is to combine innovative techniques and associated tools for exploring very large environmental data sets in order to arrive at valid, novel, potentially useful, and ultimately understandable spatio-temporal patterns. The GeoInsight approach is described using the principles and key developments in the research domains of KDD, GVis, and STDB. The GeoInsight approach aims at the integration of these research domains in order to provide tools for performing information retrieval, exploration, analysis, and visualization. The result is a knowledge-based design, which involves visual thinking (perceptual-cognitive process) and automated information processing (computer-analytical process).

Spatio-temporal analysis of irregular vocal fold oscillations: Biphonation due to desynchronization of spatial modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neubauer, Jürgen; Mergell, Patrick; Eysholdt, Ulrich; Herzel, Hanspeter

2001-12-01

This report is on direct observation and modal analysis of irregular spatio-temporal vibration patterns of vocal fold pathologies in vivo. The observed oscillation patterns are described quantitatively with multiline kymograms, spectral analysis, and spatio-temporal plots. The complex spatio-temporal vibration patterns are decomposed by empirical orthogonal functions into independent vibratory modes. It is shown quantitatively that biphonation can be induced either by left-right asymmetry or by desynchronized anterior-posterior vibratory modes, and the term ``AP (anterior-posterior) biphonation'' is introduced. The presented phonation examples show that for normal phonation the first two modes sufficiently explain the glottal dynamics. The spatio-temporal oscillation pattern associated with biphonation due to left-right asymmetry can be explained by the first three modes. Higher-order modes are required to describe the pattern for biphonation induced by anterior-posterior vibrations. Spatial irregularity is quantified by an entropy measure, which is significantly higher for irregular phonation than for normal phonation. Two asymmetry measures are introduced: the left-right asymmetry and the anterior-posterior asymmetry, as the ratios of the fundamental frequencies of left and right vocal fold and of anterior-posterior modes, respectively. These quantities clearly differentiate between left-right biphonation and anterior-posterior biphonation. This paper proposes methods to analyze quantitatively irregular vocal fold contour patterns in vivo and complements previous findings of desynchronization of vibration modes in computer modes and in in vitro experiments.

A Bayesian approach for temporally scaling climate for modeling ecological systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Post van der Burg, Max; Anteau, Michael J.; McCauley, Lisa A.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.

2016-01-01

With climate change becoming more of concern, many ecologists are including climate variables in their system and statistical models. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is a drought index that has potential advantages in modeling ecological response variables, including a flexible computation of the index over different timescales. However, little development has been made in terms of the choice of timescale for SPEI. We developed a Bayesian modeling approach for estimating the timescale for SPEI and demonstrated its use in modeling wetland hydrologic dynamics in two different eras (i.e., historical [pre-1970] and contemporary [post-2003]). Our goal was to determine whether differences in climate between the two eras could explain changes in the amount of water in wetlands. Our results showed that wetland water surface areas tended to be larger in wetter conditions, but also changed less in response to climate fluctuations in the contemporary era. We also found that the average timescale parameter was greater in the historical period, compared with the contemporary period. We were not able to determine whether this shift in timescale was due to a change in the timing of wet–dry periods or whether it was due to changes in the way wetlands responded to climate. Our results suggest that perhaps some interaction between climate and hydrologic response may be at work, and further analysis is needed to determine which has a stronger influence. Despite this, we suggest that our modeling approach enabled us to estimate the relevant timescale for SPEI and make inferences from those estimates. Likewise, our approach provides a mechanism for using prior information with future data to assess whether these patterns may continue over time. We suggest that ecologists consider using temporally scalable climate indices in conjunction with Bayesian analysis for assessing the role of climate in ecological systems.

Spatio-Temporal Neural Networks for Vision, Reasoning and Rapid Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-08-31

something that is obviously not pattern for long-term knowledge base (LTKB) facts. As a matter possiblc in common neural networks (as units in a...Conferences on Neural Davis, P. (19W0) Application of op~tical chaos to temporal pattern search in a Networks . Piscataway, NJ. [SC] nonlinear optical...Science Institute PROJECT TITLE: Spatio-temporal Neural Networks for Vision, Reasoning and Rapid Decision Making (N00014-93-1-1149) Number of ONR

Building a Billion Spatio-Temporal Object Search and Visualization Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kakkar, D.; Lewis, B.

2017-10-01

With funding from the Sloan Foundation and Harvard Dataverse, the Harvard Center for Geographic Analysis (CGA) has developed a prototype spatio-temporal visualization platform called the Billion Object Platform or BOP. The goal of the project is to lower barriers for scholars who wish to access large, streaming, spatio-temporal datasets. The BOP is now loaded with the latest billion geo-tweets, and is fed a real-time stream of about 1 million tweets per day. The geo-tweets are enriched with sentiment and census/admin boundary codes when they enter the system. The system is open source and is currently hosted on Massachusetts Open Cloud (MOC), an OpenStack environment with all components deployed in Docker orchestrated by Kontena. This paper will provide an overview of the BOP architecture, which is built on an open source stack consisting of Apache Lucene, Solr, Kafka, Zookeeper, Swagger, scikit-learn, OpenLayers, and AngularJS. The paper will further discuss the approach used for harvesting, enriching, streaming, storing, indexing, visualizing and querying a billion streaming geo-tweets.

Spatio-temporal phenomena in complex systems with time delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yanchuk, Serhiy; Giacomelli, Giovanni

2017-03-01

Real-world systems can be strongly influenced by time delays occurring in self-coupling interactions, due to unavoidable finite signal propagation velocities. When the delays become significantly long, complicated high-dimensional phenomena appear and a simple extension of the methods employed in low-dimensional dynamical systems is not feasible. We review the general theory developed in this case, describing the main destabilization mechanisms, the use of visualization tools, and commenting on the most important and effective dynamical indicators as well as their properties in different regimes. We show how a suitable approach, based on a comparison with spatio-temporal systems, represents a powerful instrument for disclosing the very basic mechanism of long-delay systems. Various examples from different models and a series of recent experiments are reported.

Spatio-temporal Analysis for New York State SPARCS Data

PubMed Central

Chen, Xin; Wang, Yu; Schoenfeld, Elinor; Saltz, Mary; Saltz, Joel; Wang, Fusheng

2017-01-01

Increased accessibility of health data provides unique opportunities to discover spatio-temporal patterns of diseases. For example, New York State SPARCS (Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System) data collects patient level detail on patient demographics, diagnoses, services, and charges for each hospital inpatient stay and outpatient visit. Such data also provides home addresses for each patient. This paper presents our preliminary work on spatial, temporal, and spatial-temporal analysis of disease patterns for New York State using SPARCS data. We analyzed spatial distribution patterns of typical diseases at ZIP code level. We performed temporal analysis of common diseases based on 12 years’ historical data. We then compared the spatial variations for diseases with different levels of clustering tendency, and studied the evolution history of such spatial patterns. Case studies based on asthma demonstrated that the discovered spatial clusters are consistent with prior studies. We visualized our spatial-temporal patterns as animations through videos. PMID:28815148

User requirements for geo-collaborative work with spatio-temporal data in a web-based virtual globe environment.

PubMed

Yovcheva, Zornitza; van Elzakker, Corné P J M; Köbben, Barend

2013-11-01

Web-based tools developed in the last couple of years offer unique opportunities to effectively support scientists in their effort to collaborate. Communication among environmental researchers often involves not only work with geographical (spatial), but also with temporal data and information. Literature still provides limited documentation when it comes to user requirements for effective geo-collaborative work with spatio-temporal data. To start filling this gap, our study adopted a User-Centered Design approach and first explored the user requirements of environmental researchers working on distributed research projects for collaborative dissemination, exchange and work with spatio-temporal data. Our results show that system design will be mainly influenced by the nature and type of data users work with. From the end-users' perspective, optimal conversion of huge files of spatio-temporal data for further dissemination, accuracy of conversion, organization of content and security have a key role for effective geo-collaboration. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Spatio-Temporal Pattern Analysis for Regional Climate Change Using Mathematical Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, M.; Ghosh, S. K.

2015-07-01

Of late, significant changes in climate with their grave consequences have posed great challenges on humankind. Thus, the detection and assessment of climatic changes on a regional scale is gaining importance, since it helps to adopt adequate mitigation and adaptation measures. In this paper, we have presented a novel approach for detecting spatio-temporal pattern of regional climate change by exploiting the theory of mathematical morphology. At first, the various climatic zones in the region have been identified by using multifractal cross-correlation analysis (MF-DXA) of different climate variables of interest. Then, the directional granulometry with four different structuring elements has been studied to detect the temporal changes in spatial distribution of the identified climatic zones in the region and further insights have been drawn with respect to morphological uncertainty index and Hurst exponent. The approach has been evaluated with the daily time series data of land surface temperature (LST) and precipitation rate, collected from Microsoft Research - Fetch Climate Explorer, to analyze the spatio-temporal climatic pattern-change in the Eastern and North-Eastern regions of India throughout four quarters of the 20th century.

Hierarchical Spatio-temporal Visual Analysis of Cluster Evolution in Electrocorticography Data

DOE PAGES

Murugesan, Sugeerth; Bouchard, Kristofer; Chang, Edward; ...

2016-10-02

Here, we present ECoG ClusterFlow, a novel interactive visual analysis tool for the exploration of high-resolution Electrocorticography (ECoG) data. Our system detects and visualizes dynamic high-level structures, such as communities, using the time-varying spatial connectivity network derived from the high-resolution ECoG data. ECoG ClusterFlow provides a multi-scale visualization of the spatio-temporal patterns underlying the time-varying communities using two views: 1) an overview summarizing the evolution of clusters over time and 2) a hierarchical glyph-based technique that uses data aggregation and small multiples techniques to visualize the propagation of clusters in their spatial domain. ECoG ClusterFlow makes it possible 1) tomore » compare the spatio-temporal evolution patterns across various time intervals, 2) to compare the temporal information at varying levels of granularity, and 3) to investigate the evolution of spatial patterns without occluding the spatial context information. Lastly, we present case studies done in collaboration with neuroscientists on our team for both simulated and real epileptic seizure data aimed at evaluating the effectiveness of our approach.« less

Conduction Delay Learning Model for Unsupervised and Supervised Classification of Spatio-Temporal Spike Patterns

PubMed Central

Matsubara, Takashi

2017-01-01

Precise spike timing is considered to play a fundamental role in communications and signal processing in biological neural networks. Understanding the mechanism of spike timing adjustment would deepen our understanding of biological systems and enable advanced engineering applications such as efficient computational architectures. However, the biological mechanisms that adjust and maintain spike timing remain unclear. Existing algorithms adopt a supervised approach, which adjusts the axonal conduction delay and synaptic efficacy until the spike timings approximate the desired timings. This study proposes a spike timing-dependent learning model that adjusts the axonal conduction delay and synaptic efficacy in both unsupervised and supervised manners. The proposed learning algorithm approximates the Expectation-Maximization algorithm, and classifies the input data encoded into spatio-temporal spike patterns. Even in the supervised classification, the algorithm requires no external spikes indicating the desired spike timings unlike existing algorithms. Furthermore, because the algorithm is consistent with biological models and hypotheses found in existing biological studies, it could capture the mechanism underlying biological delay learning. PMID:29209191

A Model of the Spatio-temporal Dynamics of Drosophila Eye Disc Development.

PubMed

Fried, Patrick; Sánchez-Aragón, Máximo; Aguilar-Hidalgo, Daniel; Lehtinen, Birgitta; Casares, Fernando; Iber, Dagmar

2016-09-01

Patterning and growth are linked during early development and have to be tightly controlled to result in a functional tissue or organ. During the development of the Drosophila eye, this linkage is particularly clear: the growth of the eye primordium mainly results from proliferating cells ahead of the morphogenetic furrow (MF), a moving signaling wave that sweeps across the tissue from the posterior to the anterior side, that induces proliferating cells anterior to it to differentiate and become cell cycle quiescent in its wake. Therefore, final eye disc size depends on the proliferation rate of undifferentiated cells and on the speed with which the MF sweeps across the eye disc. We developed a spatio-temporal model of the growing eye disc based on the regulatory interactions controlled by the signals Decapentaplegic (Dpp), Hedgehog (Hh) and the transcription factor Homothorax (Hth) and explored how the signaling patterns affect the movement of the MF and impact on eye disc growth. We used published and new quantitative data to parameterize the model. In particular, two crucial parameter values, the degradation rate of Hth and the diffusion coefficient of Hh, were measured. The model is able to reproduce the linear movement of the MF and the termination of growth of the primordium. We further show that the model can explain several mutant phenotypes, but fails to reproduce the previously observed scaling of the Dpp gradient in the anterior compartment.

Assessment of long-term spatio-temporal radiofrequency electromagnetic field exposure.

PubMed

Aerts, Sam; Wiart, Joe; Martens, Luc; Joseph, Wout

2018-02-01

As both the environment and telecommunications networks are inherently dynamic, our exposure to environmental radiofrequency (RF) electromagnetic fields (EMF) at an arbitrary location is not at all constant in time. In this study, more than a year's worth of measurement data collected in a fixed low-cost exposimeter network distributed over an urban environment was analysed and used to build, for the first time, a full spatio-temporal surrogate model of outdoor exposure to downlink Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) and Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) signals. Though no global trend was discovered over the measuring period, the difference in measured exposure between two instances could reach up to 42dB (a factor 12,000 in power density). Furthermore, it was found that, taking into account the hour and day of the measurement, the accuracy of the surrogate model in the area under study was improved by up to 50% compared to models that neglect the daily temporal variability of the RF signals. However, further study is required to assess the extent to which the results obtained in the considered environment can be extrapolated to other geographic locations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A dense array stimulator to generate arbitrary spatio-temporal tactile stimuli

PubMed Central

Killebrew, Justin H.; Bensmaïa, Sliman J.; Dammann, John F.; Denchev, Peter; Hsiao, Steven S.; Craig, James C.

2007-01-01

The generation and presentation of tactile stimuli presents a unique challenge. Unlike vision and audition, in which standard equipment such as monitors and audio systems can be used for most experiments, tactile stimuli and/or stimulators often have to be tailor-made for a given study. Here, we present a novel tactile stimulator designed to present arbitrary spatio-temporal stimuli to the skin. The stimulator consists of 400 pins, arrayed over a 1 cm2 area, each under independent computer control. The dense array allows for an unprecedented number of stimuli to be presented within an experimental session (e.g., up to 1200 stimuli per minute) and for stimuli to be generated adaptively. The stimulator can be used in a variety of modes and can deliver indented and scanned patterns as well as stimuli defined by mathematical spatio-temporal functions (e.g., drifting sinusoids). We describe the hardware and software of the system, and discuss previous and prospective applications. PMID:17134760

Learning large-scale dynamic discrete choice models of spatio-temporal preferences with application to migratory pastoralism in East Africa

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding spatio-temporal resource preferences is paramount in the design of policies for sustainable development. Unfortunately, resource preferences are often unknown to policy-makers and have to be inferred from data. In this paper we consider the problem of inferring agents’ preferences fro...

Dynamic design of ecological monitoring networks for non-Gaussian spatio-temporal data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wikle, C.K.; Royle, J. Andrew

2005-01-01

Many ecological processes exhibit spatial structure that changes over time in a coherent, dynamical fashion. This dynamical component is often ignored in the design of spatial monitoring networks. Furthermore, ecological variables related to processes such as habitat are often non-Gaussian (e.g. Poisson or log-normal). We demonstrate that a simulation-based design approach can be used in settings where the data distribution is from a spatio-temporal exponential family. The key random component in the conditional mean function from this distribution is then a spatio-temporal dynamic process. Given the computational burden of estimating the expected utility of various designs in this setting, we utilize an extended Kalman filter approximation to facilitate implementation. The approach is motivated by, and demonstrated on, the problem of selecting sampling locations to estimate July brood counts in the prairie pothole region of the U.S.

Spatio-Temporal Regularization for Longitudinal Registration to Subject-Specific 3d Template

PubMed Central

Guizard, Nicolas; Fonov, Vladimir S.; García-Lorenzo, Daniel; Nakamura, Kunio; Aubert-Broche, Bérengère; Collins, D. Louis

2015-01-01

Neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease present subtle anatomical brain changes before the appearance of clinical symptoms. Manual structure segmentation is long and tedious and although automatic methods exist, they are often performed in a cross-sectional manner where each time-point is analyzed independently. With such analysis methods, bias, error and longitudinal noise may be introduced. Noise due to MR scanners and other physiological effects may also introduce variability in the measurement. We propose to use 4D non-linear registration with spatio-temporal regularization to correct for potential longitudinal inconsistencies in the context of structure segmentation. The major contribution of this article is the use of individual template creation with spatio-temporal regularization of the deformation fields for each subject. We validate our method with different sets of real MRI data, compare it to available longitudinal methods such as FreeSurfer, SPM12, QUARC, TBM, and KNBSI, and demonstrate that spatially local temporal regularization yields more consistent rates of change of global structures resulting in better statistical power to detect significant changes over time and between populations. PMID:26301716

Spatio-temporal characterisation of a 100 kHz 24 W sub-3-cycle NOPCPA laser system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witting, Tobias; Furch, Federico J.; Vrakking, Marc J. J.

2018-04-01

In recent years, OPCPA and NOPCPA laser systems have shown the potential to supersede Ti:sapphire plus post-compression based laser systems to drive next generation attosecond light sources via direct amplification of few-cycle pulses to high pulse energies at high repetition rates. In this paper, we present a sub 3-cycle, 100 kHz, 24 W NOPA laser system and characterise its spatio-temporal properties using the SEA-F-SPIDER technique. Our results underline the importance of spatio-temporal diagnostics for these emerging laser systems.

Evaluating the Spatio-Temporal Factors that Structure Network Parameters of Plant-Herbivore Interactions

PubMed Central

López-Carretero, Antonio; Díaz-Castelazo, Cecilia; Boege, Karina; Rico-Gray, Víctor

2014-01-01

Despite the dynamic nature of ecological interactions, most studies on species networks offer static representations of their structure, constraining our understanding of the ecological mechanisms involved in their spatio-temporal stability. This is the first study to evaluate plant-herbivore interaction networks on a small spatio-temporal scale. Specifically, we simultaneously assessed the effect of host plant availability, habitat complexity and seasonality on the structure of plant-herbivore networks in a coastal tropical ecosystem. Our results revealed that changes in the host plant community resulting from seasonality and habitat structure are reflected not only in the herbivore community, but also in the emergent properties (network parameters) of the plant-herbivore interaction network such as connectance, selectiveness and modularity. Habitat conditions and periods that are most stressful favored the presence of less selective and susceptible herbivore species, resulting in increased connectance within networks. In contrast, the high degree of selectivennes (i.e. interaction specialization) and modularity of the networks under less stressful conditions was promoted by the diversification in resource use by herbivores. By analyzing networks at a small spatio-temporal scale we identified the ecological factors structuring this network such as habitat complexity and seasonality. Our research offers new evidence on the role of abiotic and biotic factors in the variation of the properties of species interaction networks. PMID:25340790

Spatio-Temporal b Value Trends For a PMMA-PMMA Frictional Interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, J.; Selvadurai, P. A.; Glaser, S. D.

2016-12-01

We develop a catalog of seismic events observed on a well-characterized PMMA-PMMA frictional interface to allow for an in depth study of spatio-temporal trends in along-fault b values. Recent studies of the 2009 L'Aquila [Gulia et al., GRL, 2016] and 2011 Tohoku-oki [Tormann et al., Nature Geo., 2015] events have found significant decrease in b values near the epicenters in the months leading up to rupture. Here, a fault is experimentally modeled using two Poly(methyl methacrylate) samples in a direct shear configuration. The initial, non-uniform distribution of asperities along the frictional interface was measured using a pressure sensitive film. Prior to a stick-slip event, localized seismicity was captured using 16 acoustic emission (AE) sensors, which provide the catalog events and b value analysis. We observe similar decreasing trends in b values prior to failure as observed in nature. We discuss the spatio-temporal variations in b values with respect to a slowly expanding shear rupture captured using dense `along-strike' arrays of 9 slip sensors and 24 strain gauges. The rate at which the shear rupture moved along the interface depended on the shear strength heterogeneity characterized by the non-uniform distribution of asperities. In the latter stages of nucleation, b values decrease primarily in a region with larger and more densely distributed asperities. The combined analysis will help confirm recent field observations and provide insight into the mechanics of foreshock sequences leading to earthquake rupture.

Climate-driven mathematical models to understand the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of a chikungunya outbreak in the presence of widespread asymptomatic infection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dommar, Carlos J.; Robinson, Marguerite; Lowe, Rachel; Conan, Anne; Buchy, Philippe; Tarantola, Arnaud; Rodó, Xavier

2014-05-01

The emergence and persistence of human pathogens in the environment represents a constant threat to society, with global implications for human health, economies and ecosystems. Of particular concern are vector-borne diseases, such as dengue, malaria and chikungunya, which are increasing across their traditional ranges and continuing to infiltrate new regions. This unprecedented situation has been partly attributed to the increase in global temperatures in recent decades which has allowed non-native mosquito species to invade and successfully colonise previously inhospitable environments. The spatio-temporal evolution of these diseases is determined by the interaction of the host and vector, which is strongly dependent on social structures and mobility patterns. In turn, vector populations are thought to be driven by external environmental variables, such as precipitation and temperature. Furthermore, the ability of asymptomatic individuals to successfully transmit the infection and evade control measures can undermine public health interventions. We employed a stochastic model, which explicitly included asymptomatic and undocumented laboratory confirmed cases, and applied it to a documented outbreak in Cambodia in 2012 (Trapeang Roka village, Kampong Speu Province). The resulting estimate of the reproduction number was considerably higher than values obtained for previous outbreaks and highlights the importance of asymptomatic transmission. Subsequently, we develop an agent-based model (ABM), in which each individual is explicitly represented and vector populations are linked to precipitation estimates in a tropical setting. The model is implemented on both scale-free and regular networks. The spatio-temporal transmission of chikungunya is analysed and the presence of asymptomatic silent spreaders within the population is investigated in the context of implementing travel restrictions during an outbreak. Preventing the movement of symptomatic individuals alone is

Decomposition of the complex system into nonlinear spatio-temporal modes: algorithm and application to climate data mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feigin, Alexander; Gavrilov, Andrey; Loskutov, Evgeny; Mukhin, Dmitry

2015-04-01

Proper decomposition of the complex system into well separated "modes" is a way to reveal and understand the mechanisms governing the system behaviour as well as discover essential feedbacks and nonlinearities. The decomposition is also natural procedure that provides to construct adequate and concurrently simplest models of both corresponding sub-systems, and of the system in whole. In recent works two new methods of decomposition of the Earth's climate system into well separated modes were discussed. The first method [1-3] is based on the MSSA (Multichannel Singular Spectral Analysis) [4] for linear expanding vector (space-distributed) time series and makes allowance delayed correlations of the processes recorded in spatially separated points. The second one [5-7] allows to construct nonlinear dynamic modes, but neglects delay of correlations. It was demonstrated [1-3] that first method provides effective separation of different time scales, but prevent from correct reduction of data dimension: slope of variance spectrum of spatio-temporal empirical orthogonal functions that are "structural material" for linear spatio-temporal modes, is too flat. The second method overcomes this problem: variance spectrum of nonlinear modes falls essentially sharply [5-7]. However neglecting time-lag correlations brings error of mode selection that is uncontrolled and increases with growth of mode time scale. In the report we combine these two methods in such a way that the developed algorithm allows constructing nonlinear spatio-temporal modes. The algorithm is applied for decomposition of (i) multi hundreds years globally distributed data generated by the INM RAS Coupled Climate Model [8], and (ii) 156 years time series of SST anomalies distributed over the globe [9]. We compare efficiency of different methods of decomposition and discuss the abilities of nonlinear spatio-temporal modes for construction of adequate and concurrently simplest ("optimal") models of climate systems

Spatio-temporal features for tracking and quadruped/biped discrimination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rickman, Rick; Copsey, Keith; Bamber, David C.; Page, Scott F.

2012-05-01

Techniques such as SIFT and SURF facilitate efficient and robust image processing operations through the use of sparse and compact spatial feature descriptors and show much potential for defence and security applications. This paper considers the extension of such techniques to include information from the temporal domain, to improve utility in applications involving moving imagery within video data. In particular, the paper demonstrates how spatio-temporal descriptors can be used very effectively as the basis of a target tracking system and as target discriminators which can distinguish between bipeds and quadrupeds. Results using sequences of video imagery of walking humans and dogs are presented, and the relative merits of the approach are discussed.

Quantifying temporal trends in fisheries abundance using Bayesian dynamic linear models: A case study of riverine Smallmouth Bass populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schall, Megan K.; Blazer, Vicki S.; Lorantas, Robert M.; Smith, Geoffrey; Mullican, John E.; Keplinger, Brandon J.; Wagner, Tyler

2018-01-01

Detecting temporal changes in fish abundance is an essential component of fisheries management. Because of the need to understand short‐term and nonlinear changes in fish abundance, traditional linear models may not provide adequate information for management decisions. This study highlights the utility of Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLMs) as a tool for quantifying temporal dynamics in fish abundance. To achieve this goal, we quantified temporal trends of Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu catch per effort (CPE) from rivers in the mid‐Atlantic states, and we calculated annual probabilities of decline from the posterior distributions of annual rates of change in CPE. We were interested in annual declines because of recent concerns about fish health in portions of the study area. In general, periods of decline were greatest within the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania. The declines in CPE began in the late 1990s—prior to observations of fish health problems—and began to stabilize toward the end of the time series (2011). In contrast, many of the other rivers investigated did not have the same magnitude or duration of decline in CPE. Bayesian DLMs provide information about annual changes in abundance that can inform management and are easily communicated with managers and stakeholders.

Gait characteristics and spatio-temporal variables of climbing in bonobos (Pan paniscus).

PubMed

Schoonaert, Kirsten; D'Août, Kristiaan; Samuel, Diana; Talloen, Willem; Nauwelaerts, Sandra; Kivell, Tracy L; Aerts, Peter

2016-11-01

Although much is known about the terrestrial locomotion of great apes, their arboreal locomotion has been studied less extensively. This study investigates arboreal locomotion in bonobos (Pan paniscus), focusing on the gait characteristics and spatio-temporal variables associated with locomotion on a pole. These features are compared across different substrate inclinations (0°, 30°, 45°, 60°, and 90°), and horizontal quadrupedal walking is compared between an arboreal and a terrestrial substrate. Our results show greater variation in footfall patterns with increasing incline, resulting in more lateral gait sequences. During climbing on arboreal inclines, smaller steps and strides but higher stride frequencies and duty factors are found compared to horizontal arboreal walking. This may facilitate better balance control and dynamic stability on the arboreal substrate. We found no gradual change in spatio-temporal variables with increasing incline; instead, the results for all inclines were clustered together. Bonobos take larger strides at lower stride frequencies and lower duty factors on a horizontal arboreal substrate than on a flat terrestrial substrate. We suggest that these changes are the result of the better grip of the grasping feet on an arboreal substrate. Speed modulation of the spatio-temporal variables is similar across substrate inclinations and between substrate types, suggesting a comparable underlying motor control. Finally, we contrast these variables of arboreal inclined climbing with those of terrestrial bipedal locomotion, and briefly discuss the results with respect to the origin of habitual bipedalism. Am. J. Primatol. 78:1165-1177, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Spatio-Temporal History of HIV-1 CRF35_AD in Afghanistan and Iran.

PubMed

Eybpoosh, Sana; Bahrampour, Abbas; Karamouzian, Mohammad; Azadmanesh, Kayhan; Jahanbakhsh, Fatemeh; Mostafavi, Ehsan; Zolala, Farzaneh; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar

2016-01-01

HIV-1 Circulating Recombinant Form 35_AD (CRF35_AD) has an important position in the epidemiological profile of Afghanistan and Iran. Despite the presence of this clade in Afghanistan and Iran for over a decade, our understanding of its origin and dissemination patterns is limited. In this study, we performed a Bayesian phylogeographic analysis to reconstruct the spatio-temporal dispersion pattern of this clade using eligible CRF35_AD gag and pol sequences available in the Los Alamos HIV database (432 sequences available from Iran, 16 sequences available from Afghanistan, and a single CRF35_AD-like pol sequence available from USA). Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm was implemented in BEAST v1.8.1. Between-country dispersion rates were tested with Bayesian stochastic search variable selection method and were considered significant where Bayes factor values were greater than three. The findings suggested that CRF35_AD sequences were genetically similar to parental sequences from Kenya and Uganda, and to a set of subtype A1 sequences available from Afghan refugees living in Pakistan. Our results also showed that across all phylogenies, Afghan and Iranian CRF35_AD sequences formed a monophyletic cluster (posterior clade credibility> 0.7). The divergence date of this cluster was estimated to be between 1990 and 1992. Within this cluster, a bidirectional dispersion of the virus was observed across Afghanistan and Iran. We could not clearly identify if Afghanistan or Iran first established or received this epidemic, as the root location of this cluster could not be robustly estimated. Three CRF35_AD sequences from Afghan refugees living in Pakistan nested among Afghan and Iranian CRF35_AD branches. However, the CRF35_AD-like sequence available from USA diverged independently from Kenyan subtype A1 sequences, suggesting it not to be a true CRF35_AD lineage. Potential factors contributing to viral exchange between Afghanistan and Iran could be injection drug

Spatio-Temporal History of HIV-1 CRF35_AD in Afghanistan and Iran

PubMed Central

Eybpoosh, Sana; Bahrampour, Abbas; Karamouzian, Mohammad; Azadmanesh, Kayhan; Jahanbakhsh, Fatemeh; Mostafavi, Ehsan; Zolala, Farzaneh; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar

2016-01-01

HIV-1 Circulating Recombinant Form 35_AD (CRF35_AD) has an important position in the epidemiological profile of Afghanistan and Iran. Despite the presence of this clade in Afghanistan and Iran for over a decade, our understanding of its origin and dissemination patterns is limited. In this study, we performed a Bayesian phylogeographic analysis to reconstruct the spatio-temporal dispersion pattern of this clade using eligible CRF35_AD gag and pol sequences available in the Los Alamos HIV database (432 sequences available from Iran, 16 sequences available from Afghanistan, and a single CRF35_AD-like pol sequence available from USA). Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm was implemented in BEAST v1.8.1. Between-country dispersion rates were tested with Bayesian stochastic search variable selection method and were considered significant where Bayes factor values were greater than three. The findings suggested that CRF35_AD sequences were genetically similar to parental sequences from Kenya and Uganda, and to a set of subtype A1 sequences available from Afghan refugees living in Pakistan. Our results also showed that across all phylogenies, Afghan and Iranian CRF35_AD sequences formed a monophyletic cluster (posterior clade credibility> 0.7). The divergence date of this cluster was estimated to be between 1990 and 1992. Within this cluster, a bidirectional dispersion of the virus was observed across Afghanistan and Iran. We could not clearly identify if Afghanistan or Iran first established or received this epidemic, as the root location of this cluster could not be robustly estimated. Three CRF35_AD sequences from Afghan refugees living in Pakistan nested among Afghan and Iranian CRF35_AD branches. However, the CRF35_AD-like sequence available from USA diverged independently from Kenyan subtype A1 sequences, suggesting it not to be a true CRF35_AD lineage. Potential factors contributing to viral exchange between Afghanistan and Iran could be injection drug

Simulating Future Changes in Spatio-temporal Precipitation by Identifying and Characterizing Individual Rainstorm Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, W.; Stein, M.; Wang, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Moyer, E. J.

2015-12-01

A growing body of literature suggests that human-induced climate change may cause significant changes in precipitation patterns, which could in turn influence future flood levels and frequencies and water supply and management practices. Although climate models produce full three-dimensional simulations of precipitation, analyses of model precipitation have focused either on time-averaged distributions or on individual timeseries with no spatial information. We describe here a new approach based on identifying and characterizing individual rainstorms in either data or model output. Our approach enables us to readily characterize important spatio-temporal aspects of rainstorms including initiation location, intensity (mean and patterns), spatial extent, duration, and trajectory. We apply this technique to high-resolution precipitation over the continental U.S. both from radar-based observations (NCEP Stage IV QPE product, 1-hourly, 4 km spatial resolution) and from model runs with dynamical downscaling (WRF regional climate model, 3-hourly, 12 km spatial resolution). In the model studies we investigate the changes in storm characteristics under a business-as-usual warming scenario to 2100 (RCP 8.5). We find that in these model runs, rainstorm intensity increases as expected with rising temperatures (approximately 7%/K, following increased atmospheric moisture content), while total precipitation increases by a lesser amount (3%/K), consistent with other studies. We identify for the first time the necessary compensating mechanism: in these model runs, individual precipitation events become smaller. Other aspects are approximately unchanged in the warmer climate. Because these spatio-temporal changes in rainfall patterns would impact regional hydrology, it is important that they be accurately incorporated into any impacts assessment. For this purpose we have developed a methodology for producing scenarios of future precipitation that combine observational data and

Spatio-temporal evolution of forest fires in Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonini, Marj; Pereira, Mário G.; Parente, Joana

2017-04-01

southern areas spread hot-spot are spatially randomly distributed and temporally more concentrated in the frame 2000 - 2004. To conclude, this study let us to identify a multitude of clustering space-time features of forest fires in Portugal, which can be useful for a better planning of educational activities and prevention campaigns as well as for a better allocation of monitoring systems and firefighting. References: Tonini M., Pereira M. G., Parente J. (2016) - Evolution of forest fires in Portugal: from spatio-temporal point events to smoothed density maps. Natural Hazard, doi:10.1007/s11069-016-2637-x Lu B., Harris P., Charlton M., Brunsdon C. (2014) - The GWmodel R package: further topics for exploring spatial heterogeneity using geographically weighted models. Geo-spatial Information Science, Vol. 17: 85-101 Rowlingson B., Diggle P., Bivand M.R. (2012) - Splancs: spatial point pattern analysis code in S-Plus. Computers and Geosciences, Vol. 19: 627-655 Acknowledgements: This work was supported by: (i) the FIREXTR project, PTDC/ATP¬GEO/0462/2014; (ii) the project Interact - Integrative Research in Environment,Agro-Chain and Technology, NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000017, research line BEST, cofinanced by FEDER/NORTE 2020; and, (iii) European Investment Funds by FEDER/COMPETE/POCI-Operacional Competitiveness and Internacionalization Programme, under Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006958 and National Funds by FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UID/AGR/04033. We are especially grateful to ICNF for providing the fire.

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Fructan Metabolism in Developing Barley Grains[W

PubMed Central

Peukert, Manuela; Thiel, Johannes; Peshev, Darin; Weschke, Winfriede; Van den Ende, Wim; Mock, Hans-Peter; Matros, Andrea

2014-01-01

Barley (Hordeum vulgare) grain development follows a series of defined morphological and physiological stages and depends on the supply of assimilates (mainly sucrose) from the mother plant. Here, spatio-temporal patterns of sugar distributions were investigated by mass spectrometric imaging, targeted metabolite analyses, and transcript profiling of microdissected grain tissues. Distinct spatio-temporal sugar balances were observed, which may relate to differentiation and grain filling processes. Notably, various types of oligofructans showed specific distribution patterns. Levan- and graminan-type oligofructans were synthesized in the cellularized endosperm prior to the commencement of starch biosynthesis, while during the storage phase, inulin-type oligofructans accumulated to a high concentration in and around the nascent endosperm cavity. In the shrunken endosperm mutant seg8, with a decreased sucrose flux toward the endosperm, fructan accumulation was impaired. The tight partitioning of oligofructan biosynthesis hints at distinct functions of the various fructan types in the young endosperm prior to starch accumulation and in the endosperm transfer cells that accomplish the assimilate supply toward the endosperm at the storage phase. PMID:25271242

Adjustment of spatio-temporal precipitation patterns in a high Alpine environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrnegger, Mathew; Senoner, Tobias; Nachtnebel, Hans-Peter

2018-01-01

This contribution presents a method for correcting the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation fields in a mountainous environment. The approach is applied within a flood forecasting model in the Upper Enns catchment in the Central Austrian Alps. Precipitation exhibits a large spatio-temporal variability in Alpine areas. Additionally the density of the monitoring network is low and measurements are subjected to major errors. This can lead to significant deficits in water balance estimation and stream flow simulations, e.g. for flood forecasting models. Therefore precipitation correction factors are frequently applied. For the presented study a multiplicative, stepwise linear correction model is implemented in the rainfall-runoff model COSERO to adjust the precipitation pattern as a function of elevation. To account for the local meteorological conditions, the correction model is derived for two elevation zones: (1) Valley floors to 2000 m a.s.l. and (2) above 2000 m a.s.l. to mountain peaks. Measurement errors also depend on the precipitation type, with higher magnitudes in winter months during snow fall. Therefore, additionally, separate correction factors for winter and summer months are estimated. Significant improvements in the runoff simulations could be achieved, not only in the long-term water balance simulation and the overall model performance, but also in the simulation of flood peaks.

Adaptive spatio-temporal filtering of disturbed ECGs: a multi-channel approach to heartbeat detection in smart clothing.

PubMed

Wiklund, Urban; Karlsson, Marcus; Ostlund, Nils; Berglin, Lena; Lindecrantz, Kaj; Karlsson, Stefan; Sandsjö, Leif

2007-06-01

Intermittent disturbances are common in ECG signals recorded with smart clothing: this is mainly because of displacement of the electrodes over the skin. We evaluated a novel adaptive method for spatio-temporal filtering for heartbeat detection in noisy multi-channel ECGs including short signal interruptions in single channels. Using multi-channel database recordings (12-channel ECGs from 10 healthy subjects), the results showed that multi-channel spatio-temporal filtering outperformed regular independent component analysis. We also recorded seven channels of ECG using a T-shirt with textile electrodes. Ten healthy subjects performed different sequences during a 10-min recording: resting, standing, flexing breast muscles, walking and pushups. Using adaptive multi-channel filtering, the sensitivity and precision was above 97% in nine subjects. Adaptive multi-channel spatio-temporal filtering can be used to detect heartbeats in ECGs with high noise levels. One application is heartbeat detection in noisy ECG recordings obtained by integrated textile electrodes in smart clothing.

Modeling sediment transport as a spatio-temporal Markov process.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heyman, Joris; Ancey, Christophe

2014-05-01

Despite a century of research about sediment transport by bedload occuring in rivers, its constitutive laws remain largely unknown. The proof being that our ability to predict mid-to-long term transported volumes within reasonable confidence interval is almost null. The intrinsic fluctuating nature of bedload transport may be one of the most important reasons why classical approaches fail. Microscopic probabilistic framework has the advantage of taking into account these fluctuations at the particle scale, to understand their effect on the macroscopic variables such as sediment flux. In this framework, bedload transport is seen as the random motion of particles (sand, gravel, pebbles...) over a two-dimensional surface (the river bed). The number of particles in motion, as well as their velocities, are random variables. In this talk, we show how a simple birth-death Markov model governing particle motion on a regular lattice accurately reproduces the spatio-temporal correlations observed at the macroscopic level. Entrainment, deposition and transport of particles by the turbulent fluid (air or water) are supposed to be independent and memoryless processes that modify the number of particles in motion. By means of the Poisson representation, we obtained a Fokker-Planck equation that is exactly equivalent to the master equation and thus valid for all cell sizes. The analysis shows that the number of moving particles evolves locally far from thermodynamic equilibrium. Several analytical results are presented and compared to experimental data. The index of dispersion (or variance over mean ratio) is proved to grow from unity at small scales to larger values at larger scales confirming the non Poisonnian behavior of bedload transport. Also, we study the one and two dimensional K-function, which gives the average number of moving particles located in a ball centered at a particle centroid function of the ball's radius.

H.264/AVC digital fingerprinting based on spatio-temporal just noticeable distortion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ait Saadi, Karima; Bouridane, Ahmed; Guessoum, Abderrezak

2014-01-01

This paper presents a robust adaptive embedding scheme using a modified Spatio-Temporal noticeable distortion (JND) model that is designed for tracing the distribution of the H.264/AVC video content and protecting them from unauthorized redistribution. The Embedding process is performed during coding process in selected macroblocks type Intra 4x4 within I-Frame. The method uses spread-spectrum technique in order to obtain robustness against collusion attacks and the JND model to dynamically adjust the embedding strength and control the energy of the embedded fingerprints so as to ensure their imperceptibility. Linear and non linear collusion attacks are performed to show the robustness of the proposed technique against collusion attacks while maintaining visual quality unchanged.

Effects of Spatio-Temporal Aliasing on Pilot Performance in Active Control Tasks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaal, Peter; Sweet, Barbara

2010-01-01

Spatio-temporal aliasing affects pilot performance and control behavior. For increasing refresh rates: 1) Significant change in control behavior: a) Increase in visual gain and neuromuscular frequency. b) Decrease in visual time delay. 2) Increase in tracking performance: a) Decrease in RMSe. b) Increase in crossover frequency.

Temporal abstraction and temporal Bayesian networks in clinical domains: a survey.

PubMed

Orphanou, Kalia; Stassopoulou, Athena; Keravnou, Elpida

2014-03-01

Temporal abstraction (TA) of clinical data aims to abstract and interpret clinical data into meaningful higher-level interval concepts. Abstracted concepts are used for diagnostic, prediction and therapy planning purposes. On the other hand, temporal Bayesian networks (TBNs) are temporal extensions of the known probabilistic graphical models, Bayesian networks. TBNs can represent temporal relationships between events and their state changes, or the evolution of a process, through time. This paper offers a survey on techniques/methods from these two areas that were used independently in many clinical domains (e.g. diabetes, hepatitis, cancer) for various clinical tasks (e.g. diagnosis, prognosis). A main objective of this survey, in addition to presenting the key aspects of TA and TBNs, is to point out important benefits from a potential integration of TA and TBNs in medical domains and tasks. The motivation for integrating these two areas is their complementary function: TA provides clinicians with high level views of data while TBNs serve as a knowledge representation and reasoning tool under uncertainty, which is inherent in all clinical tasks. Key publications from these two areas of relevance to clinical systems, mainly circumscribed to the latest two decades, are reviewed and classified. TA techniques are compared on the basis of: (a) knowledge acquisition and representation for deriving TA concepts and (b) methodology for deriving basic and complex temporal abstractions. TBNs are compared on the basis of: (a) representation of time, (b) knowledge representation and acquisition, (c) inference methods and the computational demands of the network, and (d) their applications in medicine. The survey performs an extensive comparative analysis to illustrate the separate merits and limitations of various TA and TBN techniques used in clinical systems with the purpose of anticipating potential gains through an integration of the two techniques, thus leading to a

Spatio-Temporal Data Comparisons for Global Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 Outbreaks

PubMed Central

Chen, Dongmei; Chen, Yue; Wang, Lei; Zhao, Fei; Yao, Baodong

2010-01-01

Highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1 is a zoonotic disease and control of the disease is one of the highest priority in global health. Disease surveillance systems are valuable data sources for various researches and management projects, but the data quality has not been paid much attention in previous studies. Based on data from two commonly used databases (Office International des Epizooties (OIE) and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)) of global HPAI H5N1 outbreaks during the period of 2003–2009, we examined and compared their patterns of temporal, spatial and spatio-temporal distributions for the first time. OIE and FAO data showed similar trends in temporal and spatial distributions if they were considered separately. However, more advanced approaches detected a significant difference in joint spatio-temporal distribution. Because of incompleteness for both OIE and FAO data, an integrated dataset would provide a more complete picture of global HPAI H5N1 outbreaks. We also displayed a mismatching profile of global HPAI H5N1 outbreaks and found that the degree of mismatching was related to the epidemic severity. The ideas and approaches used here to assess spatio-temporal data on the same disease from different sources are useful for other similar studies. PMID:21187964

STSE: Spatio-Temporal Simulation Environment Dedicated to Biology.

PubMed

Stoma, Szymon; Fröhlich, Martina; Gerber, Susanne; Klipp, Edda

2011-04-28

Recently, the availability of high-resolution microscopy together with the advancements in the development of biomarkers as reporters of biomolecular interactions increased the importance of imaging methods in molecular cell biology. These techniques enable the investigation of cellular characteristics like volume, size and geometry as well as volume and geometry of intracellular compartments, and the amount of existing proteins in a spatially resolved manner. Such detailed investigations opened up many new areas of research in the study of spatial, complex and dynamic cellular systems. One of the crucial challenges for the study of such systems is the design of a well stuctured and optimized workflow to provide a systematic and efficient hypothesis verification. Computer Science can efficiently address this task by providing software that facilitates handling, analysis, and evaluation of biological data to the benefit of experimenters and modelers. The Spatio-Temporal Simulation Environment (STSE) is a set of open-source tools provided to conduct spatio-temporal simulations in discrete structures based on microscopy images. The framework contains modules to digitize, represent, analyze, and mathematically model spatial distributions of biochemical species. Graphical user interface (GUI) tools provided with the software enable meshing of the simulation space based on the Voronoi concept. In addition, it supports to automatically acquire spatial information to the mesh from the images based on pixel luminosity (e.g. corresponding to molecular levels from microscopy images). STSE is freely available either as a stand-alone version or included in the linux live distribution Systems Biology Operational Software (SB.OS) and can be downloaded from http://www.stse-software.org/. The Python source code as well as a comprehensive user manual and video tutorials are also offered to the research community. We discuss main concepts of the STSE design and workflow. We

Hierarchical stochastic modeling of large river ecosystems and fish growth across spatio-temporal scales and climate models: the Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Moran, Edward H.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Franz, Kristie J.; Dey, Rima

2017-01-01

We present a hierarchical series of spatially decreasing and temporally increasing models to evaluate the uncertainty in the atmosphere – ocean global climate model (AOGCM) and the regional climate model (RCM) relative to the uncertainty in the somatic growth of the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus). For effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, cli- mate output simulated by coarse-resolution AOGCMs and RCMs must be downscaled to basins to river hydrology to population response. One needs to transfer the information from these climate simulations down to the individual scale in a way that minimizes extrapolation and can account for spatio-temporal variability in the intervening stages. The goal is a framework to determine whether, given uncertainties in the climate models and the biological response, meaningful inference can still be made. The non-linear downscaling of climate information to the river scale requires that one realistically account for spatial and temporal variability across scale. Our down- scaling procedure includes the use of fixed/calibrated hydrological flow and temperature models coupled with a stochastically parameterized sturgeon bioenergetics model. We show that, although there is a large amount of uncertainty associated with both the climate model output and the fish growth process, one can establish significant differences in fish growth distributions between models, and between future and current climates for a given model.

High Spatio-Temporal Resolution Bathymetry Estimation and Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergsma, E. W. J.; Conley, D. C.; Davidson, M. A.; O'Hare, T. J.

2015-12-01

In recent years, bathymetry estimates using video images have become increasingly accurate. With the cBathy code (Holman et al., 2013) fully operational, bathymetry results with 0.5 metres accuracy have been regularly obtained at Duck, USA. cBathy is based on observations of the dominant frequencies and wavelengths of surface wave motions and estimates the depth (and hence allows inference of bathymetry profiles) based on linear wave theory. Despite the good performance at Duck, large discrepancies were found related to tidal elevation and camera height (Bergsma et al., 2014) and on the camera boundaries. A tide dependent floating pixel and camera boundary solution have been proposed to overcome these issues (Bergsma et al., under review). The video-data collection is set estimate depths hourly on a grid with resolution in the order of 10x25 meters. Here, the application of the cBathy at Porthtowan in the South-West of England is presented. Hourly depth estimates are combined and analysed over a period of 1.5 years (2013-2014). In this work the focus is on the sub-tidal region, where the best cBathy results are achieved. The morphology of the sub-tidal bar is tracked with high spatio-temporal resolution on short and longer time scales. Furthermore, the impact of the storm and reset (sudden and large changes in bathymetry) of the sub-tidal area is clearly captured with the depth estimations. This application shows that the high spatio-temporal resolution of cBathy makes it a powerful tool for coastal research and coastal zone management.

Integrating real-time and manual monitored data to predict hillslope soil moisture dynamics with high spatio-temporal resolution using linear and non-linear models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Spatio-temporal variability of soil moisture (') is a challenge that remains to be better understood. A trade-off exists between spatial coverage and temporal resolution when using the manual and real-time ' monitoring methods. This restricted the comprehensive and intensive examination of ' dynamic...

Neuronal cell fate specification by the molecular convergence of different spatio-temporal cues on a common initiator terminal selector gene

PubMed Central

Stratmann, Johannes

2017-01-01

The extensive genetic regulatory flows underlying specification of different neuronal subtypes are not well understood at the molecular level. The Nplp1 neuropeptide neurons in the developing Drosophila nerve cord belong to two sub-classes; Tv1 and dAp neurons, generated by two distinct progenitors. Nplp1 neurons are specified by spatial cues; the Hox homeotic network and GATA factor grn, and temporal cues; the hb -> Kr -> Pdm -> cas -> grh temporal cascade. These spatio-temporal cues combine into two distinct codes; one for Tv1 and one for dAp neurons that activate a common terminal selector feedforward cascade of col -> ap/eya -> dimm -> Nplp1. Here, we molecularly decode the specification of Nplp1 neurons, and find that the cis-regulatory organization of col functions as an integratory node for the different spatio-temporal combinatorial codes. These findings may provide a logical framework for addressing spatio-temporal control of neuronal sub-type specification in other systems. PMID:28414802

Fast multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition for the analysis of big spatio-temporal datasets.

PubMed

Wu, Zhaohua; Feng, Jiaxin; Qiao, Fangli; Tan, Zhe-Min

2016-04-13

In this big data era, it is more urgent than ever to solve two major issues: (i) fast data transmission methods that can facilitate access to data from non-local sources and (ii) fast and efficient data analysis methods that can reveal the key information from the available data for particular purposes. Although approaches in different fields to address these two questions may differ significantly, the common part must involve data compression techniques and a fast algorithm. This paper introduces the recently developed adaptive and spatio-temporally local analysis method, namely the fast multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD), for the analysis of a large spatio-temporal dataset. The original MEEMD uses ensemble empirical mode decomposition to decompose time series at each spatial grid and then pieces together the temporal-spatial evolution of climate variability and change on naturally separated timescales, which is computationally expensive. By taking advantage of the high efficiency of the expression using principal component analysis/empirical orthogonal function analysis for spatio-temporally coherent data, we design a lossy compression method for climate data to facilitate its non-local transmission. We also explain the basic principles behind the fast MEEMD through decomposing principal components instead of original grid-wise time series to speed up computation of MEEMD. Using a typical climate dataset as an example, we demonstrate that our newly designed methods can (i) compress data with a compression rate of one to two orders; and (ii) speed-up the MEEMD algorithm by one to two orders. © 2016 The Authors.

Big Data GPU-Driven Parallel Processing Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Clustering Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konstantaras, Antonios; Skounakis, Emmanouil; Kilty, James-Alexander; Frantzeskakis, Theofanis; Maravelakis, Emmanuel

2016-04-01

Advances in graphics processing units' technology towards encompassing parallel architectures [1], comprised of thousands of cores and multiples of parallel threads, provide the foundation in terms of hardware for the rapid processing of various parallel applications regarding seismic big data analysis. Seismic data are normally stored as collections of vectors in massive matrices, growing rapidly in size as wider areas are covered, denser recording networks are being established and decades of data are being compiled together [2]. Yet, many processes regarding seismic data analysis are performed on each seismic event independently or as distinct tiles [3] of specific grouped seismic events within a much larger data set. Such processes, independent of one another can be performed in parallel narrowing down processing times drastically [1,3]. This research work presents the development and implementation of three parallel processing algorithms using Cuda C [4] for the investigation of potentially distinct seismic regions [5,6] present in the vicinity of the southern Hellenic seismic arc. The algorithms, programmed and executed in parallel comparatively, are the: fuzzy k-means clustering with expert knowledge [7] in assigning overall clusters' number; density-based clustering [8]; and a selves-developed spatio-temporal clustering algorithm encompassing expert [9] and empirical knowledge [10] for the specific area under investigation. Indexing terms: GPU parallel programming, Cuda C, heterogeneous processing, distinct seismic regions, parallel clustering algorithms, spatio-temporal clustering References [1] Kirk, D. and Hwu, W.: 'Programming massively parallel processors - A hands-on approach', 2nd Edition, Morgan Kaufman Publisher, 2013 [2] Konstantaras, A., Valianatos, F., Varley, M.R. and Makris, J.P.: 'Soft-Computing Modelling of Seismicity in the Southern Hellenic Arc', Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters, vol. 5 (3), pp. 323-327, 2008 [3] Papadakis, S. and

Spatio-temporal source cluster analysis reveals fronto-temporal auditory change processing differences within a shared autistic and schizotypal trait phenotype.

PubMed

Ford, Talitha C; Woods, Will; Crewther, David P

2017-01-01

Social Disorganisation (SD) is a shared autistic and schizotypal phenotype that is present in the subclinical population. Auditory processing deficits, particularly in mismatch negativity/field (MMN/F) have been reported across both spectrum disorders. This study investigates differences in MMN/F cortical spatio-temporal source activity between higher and lower quintiles of the SD spectrum. Sixteen low (9 female) and 19 high (9 female) SD subclinical adults (18-40years) underwent magnetoencephalography (MEG) during an MMF paradigm where standard tones (50ms) were interrupted by infrequent duration deviants (100ms). Spatio-temporal source cluster analysis with permutation testing revealed no difference between the groups in source activation to the standard tone. To the deviant tone however, there was significantly reduced right hemisphere fronto-temporal and insular cortex activation for the high SD group ( p = 0.038). The MMF, as a product of the cortical response to the deviant minus that to the standard, did not differ significantly between the high and low Social Disorganisation groups. These data demonstrate a deficit in right fronto-temporal processing of an auditory change for those with more of the shared SD phenotype, indicating that right fronto-temporal auditory processing may be associated with psychosocial functioning.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue 2009 outbreak in Córdoba City, Argentina.

PubMed

Estallo, E L; Carbajo, A E; Grech, M G; Frías-Céspedes, M; López, L; Lanfri, M A; Ludueña-Almeida, F F; Almirón, W R

2014-08-01

During 2009 the biggest dengue epidemic to date occurred in Argentina, affecting almost half the country. We studied the spatio-temporal dynamics of the outbreak in the second most populated city of the country, Córdoba city. Confirmed cases and the results of an Aedes aegypti monitoring during the outbreak were geolocated. The imported cases began in January, and the autochthonous in March. Thirty-three percent of the 130 confirmed cases were imported, and occurred mainly at the center of the city. The autochthonous cases were more frequent in the outskirts, specially in the NE and SE. Aedes aegypti infestation showed no difference between neighborhoods with or without autochthonous cases, neither between neighborhoods with autochthonous vs. imported cases. The neighborhoods with imported cases presented higher population densities. The majority of autochthonous cases occurred at ages between 25 and 44 years old. Cases formed a spatio-temporal cluster of up to 20 days and 12km. According to a mathematical model that estimates the required number of days needed for transmission according to daily temperature, the number of cases begun to fall when more than 15.5 days were needed. This may be a coarse estimation of mean mosquito survival in the area, provided that the study area is close to the global distribution limit of the vector, and that cases prevalence was very low. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

High-throughput analysis of spatio-temporal dynamics in Dictyostelium

PubMed Central

Sawai, Satoshi; Guan, Xiao-Juan; Kuspa, Adam; Cox, Edward C

2007-01-01

We demonstrate a time-lapse video approach that allows rapid examination of the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dictyostelium cell populations. Quantitative information was gathered by sampling life histories of more than 2,000 mutant clones from a large mutagenesis collection. Approximately 4% of the clonal lines showed a mutant phenotype at one stage. Many of these could be ordered by clustering into functional groups. The dataset allows one to search and retrieve movies on a gene-by-gene and phenotype-by-phenotype basis. PMID:17659086

Spatio-Temporal Trends and Identification of Correlated Variables with Water Quality for Drinking-Water Reservoirs

PubMed Central

Gu, Qing; Wang, Ke; Li, Jiadan; Ma, Ligang; Deng, Jinsong; Zheng, Kefeng; Zhang, Xiaobin; Sheng, Li

2015-01-01

It is widely accepted that characterizing the spatio-temporal trends of water quality parameters and identifying correlated variables with water quality are indispensable for the management and protection of water resources. In this study, cluster analysis was used to classify 56 typical drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province into three groups representing different water quality levels, using data of four water quality parameters for the period 2006–2010. Then, the spatio-temporal trends in water quality were analyzed, assisted by geographic information systems (GIS) technology and statistical analysis. The results indicated that the water quality showed a trend of degradation from southwest to northeast, and the overall water quality level was exacerbated during the study period. Correlation analysis was used to evaluate the relationships between water quality parameters and ten independent variables grouped into four categories (land use, socio-economic factors, geographical features, and reservoir attributes). According to the correlation coefficients, land use and socio-economic indicators were identified as the most significant factors related to reservoir water quality. The results offer insights into the spatio-temporal variations of water quality parameters and factors impacting the water quality of drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province, and they could assist managers in making effective strategies to better protect water resources. PMID:26492263

Spatio-Temporal Trends and Identification of Correlated Variables with Water Quality for Drinking-Water Reservoirs.

PubMed

Gu, Qing; Wang, Ke; Li, Jiadan; Ma, Ligang; Deng, Jinsong; Zheng, Kefeng; Zhang, Xiaobin; Sheng, Li

2015-10-20

It is widely accepted that characterizing the spatio-temporal trends of water quality parameters and identifying correlated variables with water quality are indispensable for the management and protection of water resources. In this study, cluster analysis was used to classify 56 typical drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province into three groups representing different water quality levels, using data of four water quality parameters for the period 2006-2010. Then, the spatio-temporal trends in water quality were analyzed, assisted by geographic information systems (GIS) technology and statistical analysis. The results indicated that the water quality showed a trend of degradation from southwest to northeast, and the overall water quality level was exacerbated during the study period. Correlation analysis was used to evaluate the relationships between water quality parameters and ten independent variables grouped into four categories (land use, socio-economic factors, geographical features, and reservoir attributes). According to the correlation coefficients, land use and socio-economic indicators were identified as the most significant factors related to reservoir water quality. The results offer insights into the spatio-temporal variations of water quality parameters and factors impacting the water quality of drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province, and they could assist managers in making effective strategies to better protect water resources.

Investigation on the dominant factors controlling the spatio-temporal distribution of soil moisture in experimental grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwichtenberg, G.; Hildebrandt, A.; Samaniego-Eguiguren, L.; Kreutziger, Y.; Attinger, S.

2009-04-01

The spatio-temporal distribution of soil moisture in the unsaturated zone influences the vegetation growth, governs the runoff generation processes as well as the energy balance at the interface between biosphere and the atmosphere, by influencing evapotranspiration. A better understanding of the spatio-temporal variability and dependence of soil moisture on living versus abiotic environment would lead to an improved representation of the soil-vegetation-atmosphere processes in hydrological and climate models. The Jena Experiment site (Germany) was established October 2001 in order to analyse the interaction between plant diversity and ecosystem processes. The main experiment covers 92 plots of 20 x 20 m arranged into a grid, on which a mixture of up to 60 grassland species and of one to four plant functional groups have been seeded. Each of these plots is equipped with at least one measurement tube for soil moisture. Measurements have been conducted weekly for four growing seasons (SSF). Here, we use geostatistical methods, like variograms and multivariate regressions, to investigate in how far abiotic environment and ecosystem explain the spatial and temporal variation of soil moisture at the Jena Experiment site. We test the influence of the soil environment, biodiversity, leaf area index and groundwater table. The poster will present the results of this analysis.

Spatio-temporal patterns of Campylobacter colonization in Danish broilers.

PubMed

Chowdhury, S; Themudo, G E; Sandberg, M; Ersbøll, A K

2013-05-01

Despite a number of risk-factor studies in different countries, the epidemiology of Campylobacter colonization in broilers, particularly spatial dependencies, is still not well understood. A series of analyses (visualization and exploratory) were therefore conducted in order to obtain a better understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of Campylobacter in the Danish broiler population. In this study, we observed a non-random temporal occurrence of Campylobacter, with high prevalence during summer and low during winter. Significant spatio-temporal clusters were identified in the same areas in the summer months from 2007 to 2009. Range of influence between broiler farms were estimated at distances of 9.6 km and 13.5 km in different years. Identification of areas and time with greater risk indicates variable presence of risk factors with space and time. Implementation of safety measures on farms within high-risk clusters during summer could have an impact in reducing prevalence.

Application research on temporal GIS in the transportation information management system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wei; Qin, Qianqing; Wang, Chao

2006-10-01

The application, development and key matters of applying spatio-temporal GIS to traffic information management system are discussed in this paper by introducing the development of spatio-temporal database, current models of spatio-temporal data, traits of traffic information management system. This paper proposes a method of organizing spatio-temporal data taking road object changes into consideration, and describes its data structure in 3 aspects, including structure of spatio-temporal object, organizing method spatio-temporal data and storage means of spatio-temporal data. Trying to manage types of spatio-temporal data involved in traffic system, such as road information, river information, railway information, social and economical data, and etc, uniformly, efficiently and with low redundancy.

Visual pattern recognition based on spatio-temporal patterns of retinal ganglion cells’ activities

PubMed Central

Jing, Wei; Liu, Wen-Zhong; Gong, Xin-Wei; Gong, Hai-Qing

2010-01-01

Neural information is processed based on integrated activities of relevant neurons. Concerted population activity is one of the important ways for retinal ganglion cells to efficiently organize and process visual information. In the present study, the spike activities of bullfrog retinal ganglion cells in response to three different visual patterns (checker-board, vertical gratings and horizontal gratings) were recorded using multi-electrode arrays. A measurement of subsequence distribution discrepancy (MSDD) was applied to identify the spatio-temporal patterns of retinal ganglion cells’ activities in response to different stimulation patterns. The results show that the population activity patterns were different in response to different stimulation patterns, such difference in activity pattern was consistently detectable even when visual adaptation occurred during repeated experimental trials. Therefore, the stimulus pattern can be reliably discriminated according to the spatio-temporal pattern of the neuronal activities calculated using the MSDD algorithm. PMID:21886670

An empirical investigation of taxi driver response behavior to ride-hailing requests: A spatio-temporal perspective

PubMed Central

Xu, Ke; Sun, Luping; Wang, Hansheng

2018-01-01

Using data provided by a ride-hailing platform, this paper examines the factors that affect taxi driver response behavior to ride-hailing requests. The empirical investigation from a driver’s perspective is of great importance for ride-hailing service providers, given that approximately 40% of the hailing requests receive no response from any driver. To comprehensively understand taxi driver response behavior, we use a rich dataset to generate variables related to the spatio-temporal supply-demand intensities, the economic incentives, the requests’ and the drivers’ characteristics. The results show that drivers are more likely to respond to requests with economic incentives (especially a firm subsidy), and those with a lower spatio-temporal demand intensity or a higher spatio-temporal supply intensity. In addition, drivers are more likely to respond to requests involving rides covering a greater geographical distance and to those with a smaller number of repeated submissions. The drivers’ characteristics, namely, the number of requests received and the number of requests responded, however, have relatively little impacts on their response probability to the current request. Our findings contribute to the related literature and provide managerial implications for ride-hailing service providers. PMID:29883478

Spatio-temporal dynamics of genetic diversity in Sorghum bicolor in Niger.

PubMed

Deu, Monique; Sagnard, F; Chantereau, J; Calatayud, C; Vigouroux, Y; Pham, J L; Mariac, C; Kapran, I; Mamadou, A; Gérard, B; Ndjeunga, J; Bezançon, G

2010-05-01

The dynamics of crop genetic diversity need to be assessed to draw up monitoring and conservation priorities. However, few surveys have been conducted in centres of diversity. Sub-Saharan Africa is the centre of origin of sorghum. Most Sahel countries have been faced with major human, environmental and social changes in recent decades, which are suspected to cause genetic erosion. Sorghum is the second staple cereal in Niger, a centre of diversity for this crop. Niger was submitted to recurrent drought period and to major social changes during these last decades. We report here on a spatio-temporal analysis of sorghum genetic diversity, conducted in 71 villages covering the rainfall gradient and range of agro-ecological conditions in Niger's agricultural areas. We used 28 microsatellite markers and applied spatial and genetic clustering methods to investigate change in genetic diversity over a 26-year period (1976-2003). Global genetic differentiation between the two collections was very low (F (st) = 0.0025). Most of the spatial clusters presented no major differentiation, as measured by F (st), and showed stability or an increase in allelic richness, except for two of them located in eastern Niger. The genetic clusters identified by Bayesian analysis did not show a major change between the two collections in the distribution of accessions between them or in their spatial location. These results suggest that farmers' management has globally preserved sorghum genetic diversity in Niger.

Spatio-temporal variability of hyporheic exchange through a pool-riffle-pool sequence

Treesearch

Frank P. Gariglio; Daniele Tonina; Charles H. Luce

2013-01-01

Stream water enters and exits the streambed sediment due to hyporheic fluxes, which stem primarily from the interaction between surface water hydraulics and streambed morphology. These fluxes sustain a rich ecotone, whose habitat quality depends on their direction and magnitude. The spatio-temporal variability of hyporheic fluxes is not well understood over several...

Spatio-temporal analysis of blood perfusion by imaging photoplethysmography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaunseder, Sebastian; Trumpp, Alexander; Ernst, Hannes; Förster, Michael; Malberg, Hagen

2018-02-01

Imaging photoplethysmography (iPPG) has attracted much attention over the last years. The vast majority of works focuses on methods to reliably extract the heart rate from videos. Only a few works addressed iPPGs ability to exploit spatio-temporal perfusion pattern to derive further diagnostic statements. This work directs at the spatio-temporal analysis of blood perfusion from videos. We present a novel algorithm that bases on the two-dimensional representation of the blood pulsation (perfusion map). The basic idea behind the proposed algorithm consists of a pairwise estimation of time delays between photoplethysmographic signals of spatially separated regions. The probabilistic approach yields a parameter denoted as perfusion speed. We compare the perfusion speed versus two parameters, which assess the strength of blood pulsation (perfusion strength and signal to noise ratio). Preliminary results using video data with different physiological stimuli (cold pressure test, cold face test) show that all measures are influenced by those stimuli (some of them with statistical certainty). The perfusion speed turned out to be more sensitive than the other measures in some cases. However, our results also show that the intraindividual stability and interindividual comparability of all used measures remain critical points. This work proves the general feasibility of employing the perfusion speed as novel iPPG quantity. Future studies will address open points like the handling of ballistocardiographic effects and will try to deepen the understanding of the predominant physiological mechanisms and their relation to the algorithmic performance.

Spatio-temporal patterns in land use and management affecting surface runoff response of agricultural catchments - a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiener, P.; Auerswald, K.; van Oost, K.

2009-04-01

In many landscapes, land use creates a complex pattern in addition to the patterns resulting from soil, topography and rain. Despite the static layout of fields, a spatio-temporally highly variable situation regarding the surface runoff and erosion processes results from the asynchronous seasonal variation associated with different land uses. While the behaviour of individual land-uses and their seasonal variation is analyzed in many studies, the spatio-temporal interaction related to this pattern is rarely studied despite its crucial influence on hydrological and geomorphic response of catchments. The difficulty in studying such interactions mainly results from the fact that it is impossible to set up a replicated experiment on the landscape scale. The purpose of this review is to present the advances made thus far in quantifying the effects of patchiness of land use and management on surface runoff response in agricultural catchments. We will focus on the effects of spatio-temporal patterns in land use patches on hydraulic connectivity between patches and within catchments. This will include the temporal patterns in land management affecting infiltration, surface roughness and hence runoff concentration within single fields or land use patches insofar as these effects must be known to evaluate the combined effect of patch behaviour in space and time on catchment connectivity and surface runoff. Surface runoff effects of patchiness and connectivity between patches or within a catchment, can either be addressed by modelling studies or by comprehensive catchment field measurements, e.g. paired-watershed experiments or landscape scale studies on different scales. This limits our review to studies at the scale of small catchments < 10 km², where the time constant of the network (i.e. travel time through it) is smaller than the infiltration phase. Despite this limitation, these small catchments are important as they constitute 2/3 of the total surface of large water

Real-Time Earthquake Monitoring with Spatio-Temporal Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whittier, J. C.; Nittel, S.; Subasinghe, I.

2017-10-01

With live streaming sensors and sensor networks, increasingly large numbers of individual sensors are deployed in physical space. Sensor data streams are a fundamentally novel mechanism to deliver observations to information systems. They enable us to represent spatio-temporal continuous phenomena such as radiation accidents, toxic plumes, or earthquakes almost as instantaneously as they happen in the real world. Sensor data streams discretely sample an earthquake, while the earthquake is continuous over space and time. Programmers attempting to integrate many streams to analyze earthquake activity and scope need to write code to integrate potentially very large sets of asynchronously sampled, concurrent streams in tedious application code. In previous work, we proposed the field stream data model (Liang et al., 2016) for data stream engines. Abstracting the stream of an individual sensor as a temporal field, the field represents the Earth's movement at the sensor position as continuous. This simplifies analysis across many sensors significantly. In this paper, we undertake a feasibility study of using the field stream model and the open source Data Stream Engine (DSE) Apache Spark(Apache Spark, 2017) to implement a real-time earthquake event detection with a subset of the 250 GPS sensor data streams of the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN). The field-based real-time stream queries compute maximum displacement values over the latest query window of each stream, and related spatially neighboring streams to identify earthquake events and their extent. Further, we correlated the detected events with an USGS earthquake event feed. The query results are visualized in real-time.

Modeling Geometric-Temporal Context With Directional Pyramid Co-Occurrence for Action Recognition.

PubMed

Yuan, Chunfeng; Li, Xi; Hu, Weiming; Ling, Haibin; Maybank, Stephen J

2014-02-01

In this paper, we present a new geometric-temporal representation for visual action recognition based on local spatio-temporal features. First, we propose a modified covariance descriptor under the log-Euclidean Riemannian metric to represent the spatio-temporal cuboids detected in the video sequences. Compared with previously proposed covariance descriptors, our descriptor can be measured and clustered in Euclidian space. Second, to capture the geometric-temporal contextual information, we construct a directional pyramid co-occurrence matrix (DPCM) to describe the spatio-temporal distribution of the vector-quantized local feature descriptors extracted from a video. DPCM characterizes the co-occurrence statistics of local features as well as the spatio-temporal positional relationships among the concurrent features. These statistics provide strong descriptive power for action recognition. To use DPCM for action recognition, we propose a directional pyramid co-occurrence matching kernel to measure the similarity of videos. The proposed method achieves the state-of-the-art performance and improves on the recognition performance of the bag-of-visual-words (BOVWs) models by a large margin on six public data sets. For example, on the KTH data set, it achieves 98.78% accuracy while the BOVW approach only achieves 88.06%. On both Weizmann and UCF CIL data sets, the highest possible accuracy of 100% is achieved.

Temporal and spatio-temporal vibrotactile displays for voice fundamental frequency: an initial evaluation of a new vibrotactile speech perception aid with normal-hearing and hearing-impaired individuals.

PubMed

Auer, E T; Bernstein, L E; Coulter, D C

1998-10-01

Four experiments were performed to evaluate a new wearable vibrotactile speech perception aid that extracts fundamental frequency (F0) and displays the extracted F0 as a single-channel temporal or an eight-channel spatio-temporal stimulus. Specifically, we investigated the perception of intonation (i.e., question versus statement) and emphatic stress (i.e., stress on the first, second, or third word) under Visual-Alone (VA), Visual-Tactile (VT), and Tactile-Alone (TA) conditions and compared performance using the temporal and spatio-temporal vibrotactile display. Subjects were adults with normal hearing in experiments I-III and adults with severe to profound hearing impairments in experiment IV. Both versions of the vibrotactile speech perception aid successfully conveyed intonation. Vibrotactile stress information was successfully conveyed, but vibrotactile stress information did not enhance performance in VT conditions beyond performance in VA conditions. In experiment III, which involved only intonation identification, a reliable advantage for the spatio-temporal display was obtained. Differences between subject groups were obtained for intonation identification, with more accurate VT performance by those with normal hearing. Possible effects of long-term hearing status are discussed.

A Million-Plus Neuron Model of the Hippocampal Dentate Gyrus: Critical Role for Topography in Determining Spatio-Temporal Network Dynamics

PubMed Central

Hendrickson, Phillip J.; Yu, Gene J.; Song, Dong; Berger, Theodore W.

2016-01-01

Goal This manuscript describes a million-plus granule cell compartmental model of the rat hippocampal dentate gyrus, including excitatory, perforant path input from the entorhinal cortex, and feedforward and feedback inhibitory input from dentate interneurons. Methods The model includes experimentally determined morphological and biophysical properties of granule cells, together with glutamatergic AMPA-like EPSP and GABAergic GABAA-like IPSP synaptic excitatory and inhibitory inputs, respectively. Each granule cell was composed of approximately 200 compartments having passive and active conductances distributed throughout the somatic and dendritic regions. Modeling excitatory input from the entorhinal cortex was guided by axonal transport studies documenting the topographical organization of projections from subregions of the medial and lateral entorhinal cortex, plus other important details of the distribution of glutamatergic inputs to the dentate gyrus. Information contained within previously published maps of this major hippocampal afferent were systematically converted to scales that allowed the topographical distribution and relative synaptic densities of perforant path inputs to be quantitatively estimated for inclusion in the current model. Results Results showed that when medial and lateral entorhinal cortical neurons maintained Poisson random firing, dentate granule cells expressed, throughout the million-cell network, a robust, non-random pattern of spiking best described as spatio-temporal “clustering”. To identify the network property or properties responsible for generating such firing “clusters”, we progressively eliminated from the model key mechanisms such as feedforward and feedback inhibition, intrinsic membrane properties underlying rhythmic burst firing, and/or topographical organization of entorhinal afferents. Conclusion Findings conclusively identified topographical organization of inputs as the key element responsible for generating

Spatio-temporal characterization imaging of Ca2+ oscillations in rat hippocampal neurons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhihong; Lu, Jinling; Zhou, Wei; Liu, Rengang; Zeng, Shaoqun; Luo, Qingming

2001-08-01

Ca2+ is the most common signal transduction element in cells and plays critical rolls in neuronal development and plasticity. Ca2+ signals encode information in their oscillation frequency or amplitude and response time to regular cellular function. In this study, in order to reveal the spatio-temporal characterization of Ca2+ oscillations in rat hippocampal neurons, two kinds of Ca2+ fluorescent probes, yellow cameleons 2.1 (YC2.1) and Fluo-3, were used to monitor the change of the intracellular free Ca2+ concentration (]Ca2+[i). Spontaneous Ca2+ oscillations and glutamate elicited Ca2+ oscillations were observed with multi-photon excitation laser scan microscope (MPELSM) and confocal laser scan microscope (CLSM). The observation showed that the spatio- temporal characterization of either spontaneous or glutamate provoked Ca2+ oscillations had difference between the neurites and somata in individual nerons, especially in some distal end of neurites. The result indicated that Ca2+ oscillations were most important signal transduction pattern in neuronal development and activation. The spatio-temporal characterization of difference of Ca2+ signals between the distal endo of neurites and the somata might be associated with the distribution of ionotropic receptor and metabotropic glutamate receptors, and Ca2+ response mechanism mediated by two kinds of glutamate receptor. Ca2+ signal elicited by glutamate in the distal end of neurites appeared more complex and generated faster than that in the somata. It was suggested that Ca2+ signal in glutamate stimulated hippacamal neurons first generated from the distal end of neurites and then transduted to the somata. The complicated Ca2+ signal characterization in the distal end of neurites might be associated with neuronal activitation, neurotransmitter releasing, and other functions of neurons.

Towards human behavior recognition based on spatio temporal features and support vector machines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghabri, Sawsen; Ouarda, Wael; Alimi, Adel M.

2017-03-01

Security and surveillance are vital issues in today's world. The recent acts of terrorism have highlighted the urgent need for efficient surveillance. There is indeed a need for an automated system for video surveillance which can detect identity and activity of person. In this article, we propose a new paradigm to recognize an aggressive human behavior such as boxing action. Our proposed system for human activity detection includes the use of a fusion between Spatio Temporal Interest Point (STIP) and Histogram of Oriented Gradient (HoG) features. The novel feature called Spatio Temporal Histogram Oriented Gradient (STHOG). To evaluate the robustness of our proposed paradigm with a local application of HoG technique on STIP points, we made experiments on KTH human action dataset based on Multi Class Support Vector Machines classification. The proposed scheme outperforms basic descriptors like HoG and STIP to achieve 82.26% us an accuracy value of classification rate.

How spatio-temporal habitat connectivity affects amphibian genetic structure.

PubMed

Watts, Alexander G; Schlichting, Peter E; Billerman, Shawn M; Jesmer, Brett R; Micheletti, Steven; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Funk, W Chris; Hapeman, Paul; Muths, Erin; Murphy, Melanie A

2015-01-01

Heterogeneous landscapes and fluctuating environmental conditions can affect species dispersal, population genetics, and genetic structure, yet understanding how biotic and abiotic factors affect population dynamics in a fluctuating environment is critical for species management. We evaluated how spatio-temporal habitat connectivity influences dispersal and genetic structure in a population of boreal chorus frogs (Pseudacris maculata) using a landscape genetics approach. We developed gravity models to assess the contribution of various factors to the observed genetic distance as a measure of functional connectivity. We selected (a) wetland (within-site) and (b) landscape matrix (between-site) characteristics; and (c) wetland connectivity metrics using a unique methodology. Specifically, we developed three networks that quantify wetland connectivity based on: (i) P. maculata dispersal ability, (ii) temporal variation in wetland quality, and (iii) contribution of wetland stepping-stones to frog dispersal. We examined 18 wetlands in Colorado, and quantified 12 microsatellite loci from 322 individual frogs. We found that genetic connectivity was related to topographic complexity, within- and between-wetland differences in moisture, and wetland functional connectivity as contributed by stepping-stone wetlands. Our results highlight the role that dynamic environmental factors have on dispersal-limited species and illustrate how complex asynchronous interactions contribute to the structure of spatially-explicit metapopulations.

How spatio-temporal habitat connectivity affects amphibian genetic structure

PubMed Central

Watts, Alexander G.; Schlichting, Peter E.; Billerman, Shawn M.; Jesmer, Brett R.; Micheletti, Steven; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Funk, W. Chris; Hapeman, Paul; Muths, Erin; Murphy, Melanie A.

2015-01-01

Heterogeneous landscapes and fluctuating environmental conditions can affect species dispersal, population genetics, and genetic structure, yet understanding how biotic and abiotic factors affect population dynamics in a fluctuating environment is critical for species management. We evaluated how spatio-temporal habitat connectivity influences dispersal and genetic structure in a population of boreal chorus frogs (Pseudacris maculata) using a landscape genetics approach. We developed gravity models to assess the contribution of various factors to the observed genetic distance as a measure of functional connectivity. We selected (a) wetland (within-site) and (b) landscape matrix (between-site) characteristics; and (c) wetland connectivity metrics using a unique methodology. Specifically, we developed three networks that quantify wetland connectivity based on: (i) P. maculata dispersal ability, (ii) temporal variation in wetland quality, and (iii) contribution of wetland stepping-stones to frog dispersal. We examined 18 wetlands in Colorado, and quantified 12 microsatellite loci from 322 individual frogs. We found that genetic connectivity was related to topographic complexity, within- and between-wetland differences in moisture, and wetland functional connectivity as contributed by stepping-stone wetlands. Our results highlight the role that dynamic environmental factors have on dispersal-limited species and illustrate how complex asynchronous interactions contribute to the structure of spatially-explicit metapopulations. PMID:26442094

How spatio-temporal habitat connectivity affects amphibian genetic structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watts, Alexander G.; Schlichting, P; Billerman, S; Jesmer, B; Micheletti, S; Fortin, M.-J.; Funk, W.C.; Hapeman, P; Muths, Erin L.; Murphy, M.A.

2015-01-01

Heterogeneous landscapes and fluctuating environmental conditions can affect species dispersal, population genetics, and genetic structure, yet understanding how biotic and abiotic factors affect population dynamics in a fluctuating environment is critical for species management. We evaluated how spatio-temporal habitat connectivity influences dispersal and genetic structure in a population of boreal chorus frogs (Pseudacris maculata) using a landscape genetics approach. We developed gravity models to assess the contribution of various factors to the observed genetic distance as a measure of functional connectivity. We selected (a) wetland (within-site) and (b) landscape matrix (between-site) characteristics; and (c) wetland connectivity metrics using a unique methodology. Specifically, we developed three networks that quantify wetland connectivity based on: (i) P. maculata dispersal ability, (ii) temporal variation in wetland quality, and (iii) contribution of wetland stepping-stones to frog dispersal. We examined 18 wetlands in Colorado, and quantified 12 microsatellite loci from 322 individual frogs. We found that genetic connectivity was related to topographic complexity, within- and between-wetland differences in moisture, and wetland functional connectivity as contributed by stepping-stone wetlands. Our results highlight the role that dynamic environmental factors have on dispersal-limited species and illustrate how complex asynchronous interactions contribute to the structure of spatially-explicit metapopulations.

New robust algorithm for tracking cells in videos of Drosophila morphogenesis based on finding an ideal path in segmented spatio-temporal cellular structures.

PubMed

Bellaïche, Yohanns; Bosveld, Floris; Graner, François; Mikula, Karol; Remesíková, Mariana; Smísek, Michal

2011-01-01

In this paper, we present a novel algorithm for tracking cells in time lapse confocal microscopy movie of a Drosophila epithelial tissue during pupal morphogenesis. We consider a 2D + time video as a 3D static image, where frames are stacked atop each other, and using a spatio-temporal segmentation algorithm we obtain information about spatio-temporal 3D tubes representing evolutions of cells. The main idea for tracking is the usage of two distance functions--first one from the cells in the initial frame and second one from segmented boundaries. We track the cells backwards in time. The first distance function attracts the subsequently constructed cell trajectories to the cells in the initial frame and the second one forces them to be close to centerlines of the segmented tubular structures. This makes our tracking algorithm robust against noise and missing spatio-temporal boundaries. This approach can be generalized to a 3D + time video analysis, where spatio-temporal tubes are 4D objects.

Improving spatio-temporal model estimation of satellite-derived PM2.5 concentrations: Implications for public health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barik, M. G.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Crosson, W. L.; Yang, C. A.; Coffield, S. R.

2017-12-01

Satellite-derived environmental data, available in a range of spatio-temporal scales, are contributing to the growing use of health impact assessments of air pollution in the public health sector. Models developed using correlation of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) with ground measurements of fine particulate matter less than 2.5 microns (PM2.5) are widely applied to measure PM2.5 spatial and temporal variability. In the public health sector, associations of PM2.5 with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases are often investigated to quantify air quality impacts on these health concerns. In order to improve predictability of PM2.5 estimation using correlation models, we have included meteorological variables, higher-resolution AOD products and instantaneous PM2.5 observations into statistical estimation models. Our results showed that incorporation of high-resolution (1-km) Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC)-generated MODIS AOD, meteorological variables and instantaneous PM2.5 observations improved model performance in various parts of California (CA), USA, where single variable AOD-based models showed relatively weak performance. In this study, we further asked whether these improved models actually would be more successful for exploring associations of public health outcomes with estimated PM2.5. To answer this question, we geospatially investigated model-estimated PM2.5's relationship with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases such as asthma, high blood pressure, coronary heart disease, heart attack and stroke in CA using health data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)'s Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). PM2.5 estimation from these improved models have the potential to improve our understanding of associations between public health concerns and air quality.

An Efficient Method of Sharing Mass Spatio-Temporal Trajectory Data Based on Cloudera Impala for Traffic Distribution Mapping in an Urban City

PubMed Central

Zhou, Lianjie; Chen, Nengcheng; Yuan, Sai; Chen, Zeqiang

2016-01-01

The efficient sharing of spatio-temporal trajectory data is important to understand traffic congestion in mass data. However, the data volumes of bus networks in urban cities are growing rapidly, reaching daily volumes of one hundred million datapoints. Accessing and retrieving mass spatio-temporal trajectory data in any field is hard and inefficient due to limited computational capabilities and incomplete data organization mechanisms. Therefore, we propose an optimized and efficient spatio-temporal trajectory data retrieval method based on the Cloudera Impala query engine, called ESTRI, to enhance the efficiency of mass data sharing. As an excellent query tool for mass data, Impala can be applied for mass spatio-temporal trajectory data sharing. In ESTRI we extend the spatio-temporal trajectory data retrieval function of Impala and design a suitable data partitioning method. In our experiments, the Taiyuan BeiDou (BD) bus network is selected, containing 2300 buses with BD positioning sensors, producing 20 million records every day, resulting in two difficulties as described in the Introduction section. In addition, ESTRI and MongoDB are applied in experiments. The experiments show that ESTRI achieves the most efficient data retrieval compared to retrieval using MongoDB for data volumes of fifty million, one hundred million, one hundred and fifty million, and two hundred million. The performance of ESTRI is approximately seven times higher than that of MongoDB. The experiments show that ESTRI is an effective method for retrieving mass spatio-temporal trajectory data. Finally, bus distribution mapping in Taiyuan city is achieved, describing the buses density in different regions at different times throughout the day, which can be applied in future studies of transport, such as traffic scheduling, traffic planning and traffic behavior management in intelligent public transportation systems. PMID:27801869

An Efficient Method of Sharing Mass Spatio-Temporal Trajectory Data Based on Cloudera Impala for Traffic Distribution Mapping in an Urban City.

PubMed

Zhou, Lianjie; Chen, Nengcheng; Yuan, Sai; Chen, Zeqiang

2016-10-29

The efficient sharing of spatio-temporal trajectory data is important to understand traffic congestion in mass data. However, the data volumes of bus networks in urban cities are growing rapidly, reaching daily volumes of one hundred million datapoints. Accessing and retrieving mass spatio-temporal trajectory data in any field is hard and inefficient due to limited computational capabilities and incomplete data organization mechanisms. Therefore, we propose an optimized and efficient spatio-temporal trajectory data retrieval method based on the Cloudera Impala query engine, called ESTRI, to enhance the efficiency of mass data sharing. As an excellent query tool for mass data, Impala can be applied for mass spatio-temporal trajectory data sharing. In ESTRI we extend the spatio-temporal trajectory data retrieval function of Impala and design a suitable data partitioning method. In our experiments, the Taiyuan BeiDou (BD) bus network is selected, containing 2300 buses with BD positioning sensors, producing 20 million records every day, resulting in two difficulties as described in the Introduction section. In addition, ESTRI and MongoDB are applied in experiments. The experiments show that ESTRI achieves the most efficient data retrieval compared to retrieval using MongoDB for data volumes of fifty million, one hundred million, one hundred and fifty million, and two hundred million. The performance of ESTRI is approximately seven times higher than that of MongoDB. The experiments show that ESTRI is an effective method for retrieving mass spatio-temporal trajectory data. Finally, bus distribution mapping in Taiyuan city is achieved, describing the buses density in different regions at different times throughout the day, which can be applied in future studies of transport, such as traffic scheduling, traffic planning and traffic behavior management in intelligent public transportation systems.

Spatio-temporal patterns and source apportionment of pollution in Qiantang River (China) using neural-based modeling and multivariate statistical techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Shiliang; Zhi, Junjun; Lou, Liping; Huang, Fang; Chen, Xia; Wu, Jiaping

Characterizing the spatio-temporal patterns and apportioning the pollution sources of water bodies are important for the management and protection of water resources. The main objective of this study is to describe the dynamics of water quality and provide references for improving river pollution control practices. Comprehensive application of neural-based modeling and different multivariate methods was used to evaluate the spatio-temporal patterns and source apportionment of pollution in Qiantang River, China. Measurement data were obtained and pretreated for 13 variables from 41 monitoring sites for the period of 2001-2004. A self-organizing map classified the 41 monitoring sites into three groups (Group A, B and C), representing different pollution characteristics. Four significant parameters (dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, total phosphorus and total lead) were identified by discriminant analysis for distinguishing variations of different years, with about 80% correct assignment for temporal variation. Rotated principal component analysis (PCA) identified four potential pollution sources for Group A (domestic sewage and agricultural pollution, industrial wastewater pollution, mineral weathering, vehicle exhaust and sand mining), five for Group B (heavy metal pollution, agricultural runoff, vehicle exhaust and sand mining, mineral weathering, chemical plants discharge) and another five for Group C (vehicle exhaust and sand mining, chemical plants discharge, soil weathering, biochemical pollution, mineral weathering). The identified potential pollution sources explained 75.6% of the total variances for Group A, 75.0% for Group B and 80.0% for Group C, respectively. Receptor-based source apportionment was applied to further estimate source contributions for each pollution variable in the three groups, which facilitated and supported the PCA results. These results could assist managers to develop optimal strategies and determine priorities for river

Spatio-temporal genetic variation of the biting midge vector species Culicoides imicola (Ceratopogonidae) Kieffer in France.

PubMed

Jacquet, Stéphanie; Huber, Karine; Guis, Hélène; Setier-Rio, Marie-Laure; Goffredo, Maria; Allène, Xavier; Rakotoarivony, Ignace; Chevillon, Christine; Bouyer, Jérémy; Baldet, Thierry; Balenghien, Thomas; Garros, Claire

2016-03-11

Introduction of vector species into new areas represents a main driver for the emergence and worldwide spread of vector-borne diseases. This poses a substantial threat to livestock economies and public health. Culicoides imicola Kieffer, a major vector species of economically important animal viruses, is described with an apparent range expansion in Europe where it has been recorded in south-eastern continental France, its known northern distribution edge. This questioned on further C. imicola population extension and establishment into new territories. Studying the spatio-temporal genetic variation of expanding populations can provide valuable information for the design of reliable models of future spread. Entomological surveys and population genetic approaches were used to assess the spatio-temporal population dynamics of C. imicola in France. Entomological surveys (2-3 consecutive years) were used to evaluate population abundances and local spread in continental France (28 sites in the Var department) and in Corsica (4 sites). We also genotyped at nine microsatellite loci insects from 3 locations in the Var department over 3 years (2008, 2010 and 2012) and from 6 locations in Corsica over 4 years (2002, 2008, 2010 and 2012). Entomological surveys confirmed the establishment of C. imicola populations in Var department, but indicated low abundances and no apparent expansion there within the studied period. Higher population abundances were recorded in Corsica. Our genetic data suggested the absence of spatio-temporal genetic changes within each region but a significant increase of the genetic differentiation between Corsican and Var populations through time. The lack of intra-region population structure may result from strong gene flow among populations. We discussed the observed temporal variation between Corsica and Var as being the result of genetic drift following introduction, and/or the genetic characteristics of populations at their range edge. Our results

Spatio-temporal analysis of sub-hourly rainfall over Mumbai, India: Is statistical forecasting futile?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Jitendra; Sekharan, Sheeba; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Zope, P. E.; Eldho, T. I.

2017-04-01

Mumbai, the commercial and financial capital of India, experiences incessant annual rain episodes, mainly attributable to erratic rainfall pattern during monsoons and urban heat-island effect due to escalating urbanization, leading to increasing vulnerability to frequent flooding. After the infamous episode of 2005 Mumbai torrential rains when only two rain gauging stations existed, the governing civic body, the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai (MCGM) came forward with an initiative to install 26 automatic weather stations (AWS) in June 2006 (MCGM 2007), which later increased to 60 AWS. A comprehensive statistical analysis to understand the spatio-temporal pattern of rainfall over Mumbai or any other coastal city in India has never been attempted earlier. In the current study, a thorough analysis of available rainfall data for 2006-2014 from these stations was performed; the 2013-2014 sub-hourly data from 26 AWS was found useful for further analyses due to their consistency and continuity. Correlogram cloud indicated no pattern of significant correlation when we considered the closest to the farthest gauging station from the base station; this impression was also supported by the semivariogram plots. Gini index values, a statistical measure of temporal non-uniformity, were found above 0.8 in visible majority showing an increasing trend in most gauging stations; this sufficiently led us to conclude that inconsistency in daily rainfall was gradually increasing with progress in monsoon. Interestingly, night rainfall was lesser compared to daytime rainfall. The pattern-less high spatio-temporal variation observed in Mumbai rainfall data signifies the futility of independently applying advanced statistical techniques, and thus calls for simultaneous inclusion of physics-centred models such as different meso-scale numerical weather prediction systems, particularly the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.

Spatio-temporal mapping of variation potentials in leaves of Helianthus annuus L. seedlings in situ using multi-electrode array

PubMed Central

Zhao, Dong-Jie; Wang, Zhong-Yi; Huang, Lan; Jia, Yong-Peng; Leng, John Q.

2014-01-01

Damaging thermal stimuli trigger long-lasting variation potentials (VPs) in higher plants. Owing to limitations in conventional plant electrophysiological recording techniques, recorded signals are composed of signals originating from all of the cells that are connected to an electrode. This limitation does not enable detailed spatio-temporal distributions of transmission and electrical activities in plants to be visualised. Multi-electrode array (MEA) enables the recording and imaging of dynamic spatio-temporal electrical activities in higher plants. Here, we used an 8 × 8 MEA with a polar distance of 450 μm to measure electrical activities from numerous cells simultaneously. The mapping of the data that were recorded from the MEA revealed the transfer mode of the thermally induced VPs in the leaves of Helianthus annuus L. seedlings in situ. These results suggest that MEA can enable recordings with high spatio-temporal resolution that facilitate the determination of the bioelectrical response mode of higher plants under stress. PMID:24961469

Spatio-temporal mapping of variation potentials in leaves of Helianthus annuus L. seedlings in situ using multi-electrode array.

PubMed

Zhao, Dong-Jie; Wang, Zhong-Yi; Huang, Lan; Jia, Yong-Peng; Leng, John Q

2014-06-25

Damaging thermal stimuli trigger long-lasting variation potentials (VPs) in higher plants. Owing to limitations in conventional plant electrophysiological recording techniques, recorded signals are composed of signals originating from all of the cells that are connected to an electrode. This limitation does not enable detailed spatio-temporal distributions of transmission and electrical activities in plants to be visualised. Multi-electrode array (MEA) enables the recording and imaging of dynamic spatio-temporal electrical activities in higher plants. Here, we used an 8 × 8 MEA with a polar distance of 450 μm to measure electrical activities from numerous cells simultaneously. The mapping of the data that were recorded from the MEA revealed the transfer mode of the thermally induced VPs in the leaves of Helianthus annuus L. seedlings in situ. These results suggest that MEA can enable recordings with high spatio-temporal resolution that facilitate the determination of the bioelectrical response mode of higher plants under stress.

Spatio-temporal distribution of global solar radiation for Mexico using GOES data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonifaz, R.; Cuahutle, M.; Valdes, M.; Riveros, D.

2013-05-01

Increased need of sustainable and renewable energies around the world requires studies about the amount and distribution of such types of energies. Global solar radiation distribution in space and time is a key component on order to know the availability of the energy for different applications. Using GOES hourly data, the heliosat model was implemented for Mexico. Details about the model and its components are discussed step by stem an once obtained the global solar radiation images, different time datasets (hourly, daily, monthly and seasonal) were built in order to know the spatio-temporal behavior of this type of energy. Preliminary maps of the available solar global radiation energy for Mexico are presented, the amount and variation of the solar radiation by regions are analyzed and discussed. Future work includes a better parametrization of the model using calibrated ground stations data and more use of more complex models for better results.

Similarity-Based Fusion of MEG and fMRI Reveals Spatio-Temporal Dynamics in Human Cortex During Visual Object Recognition

PubMed Central

Cichy, Radoslaw Martin; Pantazis, Dimitrios; Oliva, Aude

2016-01-01

Every human cognitive function, such as visual object recognition, is realized in a complex spatio-temporal activity pattern in the brain. Current brain imaging techniques in isolation cannot resolve the brain's spatio-temporal dynamics, because they provide either high spatial or temporal resolution but not both. To overcome this limitation, we developed an integration approach that uses representational similarities to combine measurements of magnetoencephalography (MEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to yield a spatially and temporally integrated characterization of neuronal activation. Applying this approach to 2 independent MEG–fMRI data sets, we observed that neural activity first emerged in the occipital pole at 50–80 ms, before spreading rapidly and progressively in the anterior direction along the ventral and dorsal visual streams. Further region-of-interest analyses established that dorsal and ventral regions showed MEG–fMRI correspondence in representations later than early visual cortex. Together, these results provide a novel and comprehensive, spatio-temporally resolved view of the rapid neural dynamics during the first few hundred milliseconds of object vision. They further demonstrate the feasibility of spatially unbiased representational similarity-based fusion of MEG and fMRI, promising new insights into how the brain computes complex cognitive functions. PMID:27235099

Spatio-temporal dynamics induced by competing instabilities in two asymmetrically coupled nonlinear evolution equations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schüler, D.; Alonso, S.; Bär, M.

2014-12-15

Pattern formation often occurs in spatially extended physical, biological, and chemical systems due to an instability of the homogeneous steady state. The type of the instability usually prescribes the resulting spatio-temporal patterns and their characteristic length scales. However, patterns resulting from the simultaneous occurrence of instabilities cannot be expected to be simple superposition of the patterns associated with the considered instabilities. To address this issue, we design two simple models composed by two asymmetrically coupled equations of non-conserved (Swift-Hohenberg equations) or conserved (Cahn-Hilliard equations) order parameters with different characteristic wave lengths. The patterns arising in these systems range from coexistingmore » static patterns of different wavelengths to traveling waves. A linear stability analysis allows to derive a two parameter phase diagram for the studied models, in particular, revealing for the Swift-Hohenberg equations, a co-dimension two bifurcation point of Turing and wave instability and a region of coexistence of stationary and traveling patterns. The nonlinear dynamics of the coupled evolution equations is investigated by performing accurate numerical simulations. These reveal more complex patterns, ranging from traveling waves with embedded Turing patterns domains to spatio-temporal chaos, and a wide hysteretic region, where waves or Turing patterns coexist. For the coupled Cahn-Hilliard equations the presence of a weak coupling is sufficient to arrest the coarsening process and to lead to the emergence of purely periodic patterns. The final states are characterized by domains with a characteristic length, which diverges logarithmically with the coupling amplitude.« less

Spatio-temporal dynamics induced by competing instabilities in two asymmetrically coupled nonlinear evolution equations.

PubMed

Schüler, D; Alonso, S; Torcini, A; Bär, M

2014-12-01

Pattern formation often occurs in spatially extended physical, biological, and chemical systems due to an instability of the homogeneous steady state. The type of the instability usually prescribes the resulting spatio-temporal patterns and their characteristic length scales. However, patterns resulting from the simultaneous occurrence of instabilities cannot be expected to be simple superposition of the patterns associated with the considered instabilities. To address this issue, we design two simple models composed by two asymmetrically coupled equations of non-conserved (Swift-Hohenberg equations) or conserved (Cahn-Hilliard equations) order parameters with different characteristic wave lengths. The patterns arising in these systems range from coexisting static patterns of different wavelengths to traveling waves. A linear stability analysis allows to derive a two parameter phase diagram for the studied models, in particular, revealing for the Swift-Hohenberg equations, a co-dimension two bifurcation point of Turing and wave instability and a region of coexistence of stationary and traveling patterns. The nonlinear dynamics of the coupled evolution equations is investigated by performing accurate numerical simulations. These reveal more complex patterns, ranging from traveling waves with embedded Turing patterns domains to spatio-temporal chaos, and a wide hysteretic region, where waves or Turing patterns coexist. For the coupled Cahn-Hilliard equations the presence of a weak coupling is sufficient to arrest the coarsening process and to lead to the emergence of purely periodic patterns. The final states are characterized by domains with a characteristic length, which diverges logarithmically with the coupling amplitude.

Risk management in spatio-temporally varying field by true slime mold

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Kentaro; Sumpter, David; Nakagaki, Toshiyuki

Revealing how lower organisms solve complicated problems is a challenging research area, which could reveal the evolutionary origin of biological information processing. Here we report on the ability of a single-celled organism, true slime mold, to find a smart solution of risk management under spatio-temporally varying conditions. We designed test conditions under which there were three food-locations at vertices of equilateral triangle and a toxic light illuminated the organism on alternating halves of the triangle. We found that the organism behavior depended on the period of the repeated illumination, even though the total exposure time was kept the same . A simple mathematical model for the experimental results is proposed from a dynamical system point of view. We discuss our results in the context of a strategy of risk management by Physarum.

Reconstruction of spatio-temporal temperature from sparse historical records using robust probabilistic principal component regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tipton, John; Hooten, Mevin B.; Goring, Simon

2017-01-01

Scientific records of temperature and precipitation have been kept for several hundred years, but for many areas, only a shorter record exists. To understand climate change, there is a need for rigorous statistical reconstructions of the paleoclimate using proxy data. Paleoclimate proxy data are often sparse, noisy, indirect measurements of the climate process of interest, making each proxy uniquely challenging to model statistically. We reconstruct spatially explicit temperature surfaces from sparse and noisy measurements recorded at historical United States military forts and other observer stations from 1820 to 1894. One common method for reconstructing the paleoclimate from proxy data is principal component regression (PCR). With PCR, one learns a statistical relationship between the paleoclimate proxy data and a set of climate observations that are used as patterns for potential reconstruction scenarios. We explore PCR in a Bayesian hierarchical framework, extending classical PCR in a variety of ways. First, we model the latent principal components probabilistically, accounting for measurement error in the observational data. Next, we extend our method to better accommodate outliers that occur in the proxy data. Finally, we explore alternatives to the truncation of lower-order principal components using different regularization techniques. One fundamental challenge in paleoclimate reconstruction efforts is the lack of out-of-sample data for predictive validation. Cross-validation is of potential value, but is computationally expensive and potentially sensitive to outliers in sparse data scenarios. To overcome the limitations that a lack of out-of-sample records presents, we test our methods using a simulation study, applying proper scoring rules including a computationally efficient approximation to leave-one-out cross-validation using the log score to validate model performance. The result of our analysis is a spatially explicit reconstruction of spatio-temporal

Incorporating time and spatial-temporal reasoning into situation management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakobson, Gabriel

2010-04-01

Spatio-temporal reasoning plays a significant role in situation management that is performed by intelligent agents (human or machine) by affecting how the situations are recognized, interpreted, acted upon or predicted. Many definitions and formalisms for the notion of spatio-temporal reasoning have emerged in various research fields including psychology, economics and computer science (computational linguistics, data management, control theory, artificial intelligence and others). In this paper we examine the role of spatio-temporal reasoning in situation management, particularly how to resolve situations that are described by using spatio-temporal relations among events and situations. We discuss a model for describing context sensitive temporal relations and show have the model can be extended for spatial relations.

Ensemble reconstruction of spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events in France since 1871

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caillouet, Laurie; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Sauquet, Eric; Devers, Alexandre; Graff, Benjamin

2017-06-01

The length of streamflow observations is generally limited to the last 50 years even in data-rich countries like France. It therefore offers too small a sample of extreme low-flow events to properly explore the long-term evolution of their characteristics and associated impacts. To overcome this limit, this work first presents a daily 140-year ensemble reconstructed streamflow dataset for a reference network of near-natural catchments in France. This dataset, called SCOPE Hydro (Spatially COherent Probabilistic Extended Hydrological dataset), is based on (1) a probabilistic precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France, called SCOPE Climate, and (2) continuous hydrological modelling using SCOPE Climate as forcings over the whole period. This work then introduces tools for defining spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events. Extreme low-flow events are first locally defined through the sequent peak algorithm using a novel combination of a fixed threshold and a daily variable threshold. A dedicated spatial matching procedure is then established to identify spatio-temporal events across France. This procedure is furthermore adapted to the SCOPE Hydro 25-member ensemble to characterize in a probabilistic way unrecorded historical events at the national scale. Extreme low-flow events are described and compared in a spatially and temporally homogeneous way over 140 years on a large set of catchments. Results highlight well-known recent events like 1976 or 1989-1990, but also older and relatively forgotten ones like the 1878 and 1893 events. These results contribute to improving our knowledge of historical events and provide a selection of benchmark events for climate change adaptation purposes. Moreover, this study allows for further detailed analyses of the effect of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on low-flow hydrology at the scale of France.

Characteristics, processes, and causes of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ronghui; Chen, Jilong; Wang, Lin; Lin, Zhongda

2012-09-01

Recent advances in the study of the characteristics, processes, and causes of spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) system are reviewed in this paper. The understanding of the EAM system has improved in many aspects: the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures, the annual cycle of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) system, the characteristics of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the EASM system and the EAWM system, and especially the multiple modes of the EAM system and their spatio-temporal variabilities. Some new results have also been achieved in understanding the atmosphere-ocean interaction and atmosphere-land interaction processes that affect the variability of the EAM system. Based on recent studies, the EAM system can be seen as more than a circulation system, it can be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, namely, the EAM climate system. In addition, further progress has been made in diagnosing the internal physical mechanisms of EAM climate system variability, especially regarding the characteristics and properties of the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection over East Asia and the North Pacific, the "Silk Road" teleconnection along the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere over the Asian continent, and the dynamical effects of quasi-stationary planetary wave activity on EAM system variability. At the end of the paper, some scientific problems regarding understanding the EAM system variability are proposed for further study.

Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Scaling Properties of Human Settlements (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Small, C.; Milesi, C.; Elvidge, C.; Baugh, K.; Henebry, G. M.; Nghiem, S. V.

2013-12-01

Growth and evolution of cities and smaller settlements is usually studied in the context of population and other socioeconomic variables. While this is logical in the sense that settlements are groups of humans engaged in socioeconomic processes, our means of collecting information about spatio-temporal distributions of population and socioeconomic variables often lack the spatial and temporal resolution to represent the processes at scales which they are known to occur. Furthermore, metrics and definitions often vary with country and through time. However, remote sensing provides globally consistent, synoptic observations of several proxies for human settlement at spatial and temporal resolutions sufficient to represent the evolution of settlements over the past 40 years. We use several independent but complementary proxies for anthropogenic land cover to quantify spatio-temporal (ST) evolution and scaling properties of human settlements globally. In this study we begin by comparing land cover and night lights in 8 diverse settings - each spanning gradients of population density and degree of land surface modification. Stable anthropogenic night light is derived from multi-temporal composites of emitted luminance measured by the VIIRS and DMSP-OLS sensors. Land cover is represented as mixtures of sub-pixel fractions of rock, soil and impervious Substrates, Vegetation and Dark surfaces (shadow, water and absorptive materials) estimated from Landsat imagery with > 94% accuracy. Multi-season stability and variability of land cover fractions effectively distinguishes between spectrally similar land covers that corrupt thematic classifications based on single images. We find that temporal stability of impervious substrates combined with persistent shadow cast between buildings results in temporally stable aggregate reflectance across seasons at the 30 m scale of a Landsat pixel. Comparison of night light brightness with land cover composition, stability and variability

Tracing the spatio-temporal dynamics of endangered fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) within baleen whale (Mysticeti) lineages: a mitogenomic perspective.

PubMed

Yu, Jihyun; Nam, Bo-Hye; Yoon, Joon; Kim, Eun Bae; Park, Jung Youn; Kim, Heebal; Yoon, Sook Hee

2017-12-01

To explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of endangered fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) within the baleen whale (Mysticeti) lineages, we analyzed 148 published mitochondrial genome sequences of baleen whales. We used a Bayesian coalescent approach as well as Bayesian inferences and maximum likelihood methods. The results showed that the fin whales had a single maternal origin, and that there is a significant correlation between geographic location and evolution of global fin whales. The most recent common female ancestor of this species lived approximately 9.88 million years ago (Mya). Here, North Pacific fin whales first appeared about 7.48 Mya, followed by a subsequent divergence in Southern Hemisphere approximately 6.63 Mya and North Atlantic about 4.42 Mya. Relatively recently, approximately 1.76 and 1.42 Mya, there were two additional occurrences of North Pacific populations; one originated from the Southern Hemisphere and the other from an uncertain location. The evolutionary rate of this species was 1.002 × 10 -3 substitutions/site/My. Our Bayesian skyline plot illustrates that the fin whale population has the rapid expansion event since ~ 2.5 Mya, during the Quaternary glaciation stage. Additionally, this study indicates that the fin whale has a sister group relationship with humpback whale (Meganoptera novaeangliae) within the baleen whale lineages. Of the 16 genomic regions, NADH5 showed the most powerful signal for baleen whale phylogenetics. Interestingly, fin whales have 16 species-specific amino acid residues in eight mitochondrial genes: NADH2, COX2, COX3, ATPase6, ATPase8, NADH4, NADH5, and Cytb.

Modeling and Statistical Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Seasonal Influenza in Israel

PubMed Central

Katriel, Guy; Yaari, Rami; Roll, Uri; Stone, Lewi

2012-01-01

Background Seasonal influenza outbreaks are a serious burden for public health worldwide and cause morbidity to millions of people each year. In the temperate zone influenza is predominantly seasonal, with epidemics occurring every winter, but the severity of the outbreaks vary substantially between years. In this study we used a highly detailed database, which gave us both temporal and spatial information of influenza dynamics in Israel in the years 1998–2009. We use a discrete-time stochastic epidemic SIR model to find estimates and credible confidence intervals of key epidemiological parameters. Findings Despite the biological complexity of the disease we found that a simple SIR-type model can be fitted successfully to the seasonal influenza data. This was true at both the national levels and at the scale of single cities.The effective reproductive number Re varies between the different years both nationally and among Israeli cities. However, we did not find differences in Re between different Israeli cities within a year. R e was positively correlated to the strength of the spatial synchronization in Israel. For those years in which the disease was more “infectious”, then outbreaks in different cities tended to occur with smaller time lags. Our spatial analysis demonstrates that both the timing and the strength of the outbreak within a year are highly synchronized between the Israeli cities. We extend the spatial analysis to demonstrate the existence of high synchrony between Israeli and French influenza outbreaks. Conclusions The data analysis combined with mathematical modeling provided a better understanding of the spatio-temporal and synchronization dynamics of influenza in Israel and between Israel and France. Altogether, we show that despite major differences in demography and weather conditions intra-annual influenza epidemics are tightly synchronized in both their timing and magnitude, while they may vary greatly between years. The predominance of

Predicting ICU mortality: a comparison of stationary and nonstationary temporal models.

PubMed Central

Kayaalp, M.; Cooper, G. F.; Clermont, G.

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluates the effectiveness of the stationarity assumption in predicting the mortality of intensive care unit (ICU) patients at the ICU discharge. DESIGN: This is a comparative study. A stationary temporal Bayesian network learned from data was compared to a set of (33) nonstationary temporal Bayesian networks learned from data. A process observed as a sequence of events is stationary if its stochastic properties stay the same when the sequence is shifted in a positive or negative direction by a constant time parameter. The temporal Bayesian networks forecast mortalities of patients, where each patient has one record per day. The predictive performance of the stationary model is compared with nonstationary models using the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. RESULTS: The stationary model usually performed best. However, one nonstationary model using large data sets performed significantly better than the stationary model. CONCLUSION: Results suggest that using a combination of stationary and nonstationary models may predict better than using either alone. PMID:11079917

A Bayesian hierarchical model for accident and injury surveillance.

PubMed

MacNab, Ying C

2003-01-01

This article presents a recent study which applies Bayesian hierarchical methodology to model and analyse accident and injury surveillance data. A hierarchical Poisson random effects spatio-temporal model is introduced and an analysis of inter-regional variations and regional trends in hospitalisations due to motor vehicle accident injuries to boys aged 0-24 in the province of British Columbia, Canada, is presented. The objective of this article is to illustrate how the modelling technique can be implemented as part of an accident and injury surveillance and prevention system where transportation and/or health authorities may routinely examine accidents, injuries, and hospitalisations to target high-risk regions for prevention programs, to evaluate prevention strategies, and to assist in health planning and resource allocation. The innovation of the methodology is its ability to uncover and highlight important underlying structure of the data. Between 1987 and 1996, British Columbia hospital separation registry registered 10,599 motor vehicle traffic injury related hospitalisations among boys aged 0-24 who resided in British Columbia, of which majority (89%) of the injuries occurred to boys aged 15-24. The injuries were aggregated by three age groups (0-4, 5-14, and 15-24), 20 health regions (based of place-of-residence), and 10 calendar years (1987 to 1996) and the corresponding mid-year population estimates were used as 'at risk' population. An empirical Bayes inference technique using penalised quasi-likelihood estimation was implemented to model both rates and counts, with spline smoothing accommodating non-linear temporal effects. The results show that (a) crude rates and ratios at health region level are unstable, (b) the models with spline smoothing enable us to explore possible shapes of injury trends at both the provincial level and the regional level, and (c) the fitted models provide a wealth of information about the patterns (both over space and time

Mercury levels in herring gulls and fish: 42 years of spatio-temporal trends in the Great Lakes.

PubMed

Blukacz-Richards, E Agnes; Visha, Ariola; Graham, Matthew L; McGoldrick, Daryl L; de Solla, Shane R; Moore, David J; Arhonditsis, George B

2017-04-01

Total mercury levels in aquatic birds and fish communities have been monitored across the Canadian Great Lakes by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) for the past 42 years (1974-2015). These data (22 sites) were used to examine spatio-temporal variability of mercury levels in herring gull (Larus argentatus) eggs, lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), walleye (Sander vitreus), and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax). Trends were quantified with dynamic linear models, which provided time-variant rates of change of mercury concentrations. Lipid content (in both fish and eggs) and length in fish were used as covariates in all models. For the first three decades, mercury levels in gull eggs and fish declined at all stations. In the 2000s, trends for herring gull eggs reversed at two sites in Lake Erie and two sites in Lake Ontario. Similar trend reversals in the 2000s were observed for lake trout in Lake Superior and at a single station in Lake Ontario. Mercury levels in lake trout continued to slowly decline at all of the remaining stations, except for Lake Huron, where the levels remained stable. A post-hoc Bayesian regression analysis suggests strong trophic interactions between herring gulls and rainbow smelt in Lake Superior and Lake Ontario, but also pinpoints the likelihood of a trophic decoupling in Lake Huron and Lake Erie. Continued monitoring of mercury levels in herring gulls and fish is required to consolidate these trophic shifts and further evaluate their broader implications. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the spatio-temporal dynamics of porcine reproductive & respiratory syndrome cases at farm level using geographical distance and pig trade network matrices.

PubMed

Amirpour Haredasht, Sara; Polson, Dale; Main, Rodger; Lee, Kyuyoung; Holtkamp, Derald; Martínez-López, Beatriz

2017-06-07

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is one of the most economically devastating infectious diseases for the swine industry. A better understanding of the disease dynamics and the transmission pathways under diverse epidemiological scenarios is a key for the successful PRRS control and elimination in endemic settings. In this paper we used a two step parameter-driven (PD) Bayesian approach to model the spatio-temporal dynamics of PRRS and predict the PRRS status on farm in subsequent time periods in an endemic setting in the US. For such purpose we used information from a production system with 124 pig sites that reported 237 PRRS cases from 2012 to 2015 and from which the pig trade network and geographical location of farms (i.e., distance was used as a proxy of airborne transmission) was available. We estimated five PD models with different weights namely: (i) geographical distance weight which contains the inverse distance between each pair of farms in kilometers, (ii) pig trade weight (PT ji ) which contains the absolute number of pig movements between each pair of farms, (iii) the product between the distance weight and the standardized relative pig trade weight, (iv) the product between the standardized distance weight and the standardized relative pig trade weight, and (v) the product of the distance weight and the pig trade weight. The model that included the pig trade weight matrix provided the best fit to model the dynamics of PRRS cases on a 6-month basis from 2012 to 2015 and was able to predict PRRS outbreaks in the subsequent time period with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.88 and the accuracy of 85% (105/124). The result of this study reinforces the importance of pig trade in PRRS transmission in the US. Methods and results of this study may be easily adapted to any production system to characterize the PRRS dynamics under diverse epidemic settings to more timely support decision-making.

Spatio-temporal dynamics in the origin of genetic information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Pan-Jun; Jeong, Hawoong

2005-04-01

We study evolutionary processes induced by spatio-temporal dynamics in prebiotic evolution. Using numerical simulations, we demonstrate that hypercycles emerge from complex interaction structures in multispecies systems. In this work, we also find that ‘hypercycle hybrid’ protects the hypercycle from its environment during the growth process. There is little selective advantage for one hypercycle to maintain coexistence with others. This brings the possibility of the outcompetition between hypercycles resulting in the negative effect on information diversity. To enrich the information in hypercycles, symbiosis with parasites is suggested. It is shown that symbiosis with parasites can play an important role in the prebiotic immunology.

Mushroom biomass and diversity are driven by different spatio-temporal scales along Mediterranean elevation gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alday, Josu G.; Martínez de Aragón, Juan; de-Miguel, Sergio; Bonet, José Antonio

2017-04-01

Mushrooms are important non-wood-forest-products in many Mediterranean ecosystems, being highly vulnerable to climate change. However, the ecological scales of variation of mushroom productivity and diversity, and climate dependence has been usually overlooked due to a lack of available data. We determined the spatio-temporal variability of epigeous sporocarps and the climatic factors driving their fruiting to plan future sustainable management of wild mushrooms production. We collected fruiting bodies in Pinus sylvestris stands along an elevation gradient for 8 consecutive years. Overall, sporocarp biomass was mainly dependent on inter-annual variations, whereas richness was more spatial-scale dependent. Elevation was not significant, but there were clear elevational differences in biomass and richness patterns between ectomycorrhizal and saprotrophic guilds. The main driver of variation was late-summer-early-autumn precipitation. Thus, different scale processes (inter-annual vs. spatial-scale) drive sporocarp biomass and diversity patterns; temporal effects for biomass and ectomycorrhizal fungi vs. spatial scale for diversity and saprotrophic fungi. The significant role of precipitation across fungal guilds and spatio-temporal scales indicates that it is a limiting resource controlling sporocarp production and diversity in Mediterranean regions. The high spatial and temporal variability of mushrooms emphasize the need for long-term datasets of multiple spatial points to effectively characterize fungal fruiting patterns.

a Web-Based Interactive Platform for Co-Clustering Spatio-Temporal Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, X.; Poorthuis, A.; Zurita-Milla, R.; Kraak, M.-J.

2017-09-01

Since current studies on clustering analysis mainly focus on exploring spatial or temporal patterns separately, a co-clustering algorithm is utilized in this study to enable the concurrent analysis of spatio-temporal patterns. To allow users to adopt and adapt the algorithm for their own analysis, it is integrated within the server side of an interactive web-based platform. The client side of the platform, running within any modern browser, is a graphical user interface (GUI) with multiple linked visualizations that facilitates the understanding, exploration and interpretation of the raw dataset and co-clustering results. Users can also upload their own datasets and adjust clustering parameters within the platform. To illustrate the use of this platform, an annual temperature dataset from 28 weather stations over 20 years in the Netherlands is used. After the dataset is loaded, it is visualized in a set of linked visualizations: a geographical map, a timeline and a heatmap. This aids the user in understanding the nature of their dataset and the appropriate selection of co-clustering parameters. Once the dataset is processed by the co-clustering algorithm, the results are visualized in the small multiples, a heatmap and a timeline to provide various views for better understanding and also further interpretation. Since the visualization and analysis are integrated in a seamless platform, the user can explore different sets of co-clustering parameters and instantly view the results in order to do iterative, exploratory data analysis. As such, this interactive web-based platform allows users to analyze spatio-temporal data using the co-clustering method and also helps the understanding of the results using multiple linked visualizations.

A Fresh Look at Spatio-Temporal Remote Sensing Data: Data Formats, Processing Flow, and Visualization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gens, R.

2017-12-01

With increasing number of experimental and operational satellites in orbit, remote sensing based mapping and monitoring of the dynamic Earth has entered into the realm of `big data'. Just the Landsat series of satellites provide a near continuous archive of 45 years of data. The availability of such spatio-temporal datasets has created opportunities for long-term monitoring diverse features and processes operating on the Earth's terrestrial and aquatic systems. Processes such as erosion, deposition, subsidence, uplift, evapotranspiration, urbanization, land-cover regime shifts can not only be monitored and change can be quantified using time-series data analysis. This unique opportunity comes with new challenges in management, analysis, and visualization of spatio-temporal datasets. Data need to be stored in a user-friendly format, and relevant metadata needs to be recorded, to allow maximum flexibility for data exchange and use. Specific data processing workflows need to be defined to support time-series analysis for specific applications. Value-added data products need to be generated keeping in mind the needs of the end-users, and using best practices in complex data visualization. This presentation systematically highlights the various steps for preparing spatio-temporal remote sensing data for time series analysis. It showcases a prototype workflow for remote sensing based change detection that can be generically applied while preserving the application-specific fidelity of the datasets. The prototype includes strategies for visualizing change over time. This has been exemplified using a time-series of optical and SAR images for visualizing the changing glacial, coastal, and wetland landscapes in parts of Alaska.

Exploring the spatio-temporal neural basis of face learning

PubMed Central

Yang, Ying; Xu, Yang; Jew, Carol A.; Pyles, John A.; Kass, Robert E.; Tarr, Michael J.

2017-01-01

Humans are experts at face individuation. Although previous work has identified a network of face-sensitive regions and some of the temporal signatures of face processing, as yet, we do not have a clear understanding of how such face-sensitive regions support learning at different time points. To study the joint spatio-temporal neural basis of face learning, we trained subjects to categorize two groups of novel faces and recorded their neural responses using magnetoencephalography (MEG) throughout learning. A regression analysis of neural responses in face-sensitive regions against behavioral learning curves revealed significant correlations with learning in the majority of the face-sensitive regions in the face network, mostly between 150–250 ms, but also after 300 ms. However, the effect was smaller in nonventral regions (within the superior temporal areas and prefrontal cortex) than that in the ventral regions (within the inferior occipital gyri (IOG), midfusiform gyri (mFUS) and anterior temporal lobes). A multivariate discriminant analysis also revealed that IOG and mFUS, which showed strong correlation effects with learning, exhibited significant discriminability between the two face categories at different time points both between 150–250 ms and after 300 ms. In contrast, the nonventral face-sensitive regions, where correlation effects with learning were smaller, did exhibit some significant discriminability, but mainly after 300 ms. In sum, our findings indicate that early and recurring temporal components arising from ventral face-sensitive regions are critically involved in learning new faces. PMID:28570739

Exploring the spatio-temporal neural basis of face learning.

PubMed

Yang, Ying; Xu, Yang; Jew, Carol A; Pyles, John A; Kass, Robert E; Tarr, Michael J

2017-06-01

Humans are experts at face individuation. Although previous work has identified a network of face-sensitive regions and some of the temporal signatures of face processing, as yet, we do not have a clear understanding of how such face-sensitive regions support learning at different time points. To study the joint spatio-temporal neural basis of face learning, we trained subjects to categorize two groups of novel faces and recorded their neural responses using magnetoencephalography (MEG) throughout learning. A regression analysis of neural responses in face-sensitive regions against behavioral learning curves revealed significant correlations with learning in the majority of the face-sensitive regions in the face network, mostly between 150-250 ms, but also after 300 ms. However, the effect was smaller in nonventral regions (within the superior temporal areas and prefrontal cortex) than that in the ventral regions (within the inferior occipital gyri (IOG), midfusiform gyri (mFUS) and anterior temporal lobes). A multivariate discriminant analysis also revealed that IOG and mFUS, which showed strong correlation effects with learning, exhibited significant discriminability between the two face categories at different time points both between 150-250 ms and after 300 ms. In contrast, the nonventral face-sensitive regions, where correlation effects with learning were smaller, did exhibit some significant discriminability, but mainly after 300 ms. In sum, our findings indicate that early and recurring temporal components arising from ventral face-sensitive regions are critically involved in learning new faces.

VAUD: A Visual Analysis Approach for Exploring Spatio-Temporal Urban Data.

PubMed

Chen, Wei; Huang, Zhaosong; Wu, Feiran; Zhu, Minfeng; Guan, Huihua; Maciejewski, Ross

2017-10-02

Urban data is massive, heterogeneous, and spatio-temporal, posing a substantial challenge for visualization and analysis. In this paper, we design and implement a novel visual analytics approach, Visual Analyzer for Urban Data (VAUD), that supports the visualization, querying, and exploration of urban data. Our approach allows for cross-domain correlation from multiple data sources by leveraging spatial-temporal and social inter-connectedness features. Through our approach, the analyst is able to select, filter, aggregate across multiple data sources and extract information that would be hidden to a single data subset. To illustrate the effectiveness of our approach, we provide case studies on a real urban dataset that contains the cyber-, physical-, and socialinformation of 14 million citizens over 22 days.

Improving exposure assessment in environmental epidemiology: Application of spatio-temporal visualization tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meliker, Jaymie R.; Slotnick, Melissa J.; Avruskin, Gillian A.; Kaufmann, Andrew; Jacquez, Geoffrey M.; Nriagu, Jerome O.

2005-05-01

A thorough assessment of human exposure to environmental agents should incorporate mobility patterns and temporal changes in human behaviors and concentrations of contaminants; yet the temporal dimension is often under-emphasized in exposure assessment endeavors, due in part to insufficient tools for visualizing and examining temporal datasets. Spatio-temporal visualization tools are valuable for integrating a temporal component, thus allowing for examination of continuous exposure histories in environmental epidemiologic investigations. An application of these tools to a bladder cancer case-control study in Michigan illustrates continuous exposure life-lines and maps that display smooth, continuous changes over time. Preliminary results suggest increased risk of bladder cancer from combined exposure to arsenic in drinking water (>25 μg/day) and heavy smoking (>30 cigarettes/day) in the 1970s and 1980s, and a possible cancer cluster around automotive, paint, and organic chemical industries in the early 1970s. These tools have broad application for examining spatially- and temporally-specific relationships between exposures to environmental risk factors and disease.

Atomistic observation and simulation analysis of spatio-temporal fluctuations during radiation-induced amorphization.

PubMed

Watanabe, Seiichi; Hoshino, Misaki; Koike, Takuto; Suda, Takanori; Ohnuki, Soumei; Takahashi, Heishichirou; Lam, Nighi Q

2003-01-01

We performed a dynamical-atomistic study of radiation-induced amorphization in the NiTi intermetallic compound using in situ high-resolution high-voltage electron microscopy and molecular dynamics simulations in connection with image simulation. Spatio-temporal fluctuations as non-equilibrium fluctuations in an energy-dissipative system, due to transient atom-cluster formation during amorphization, were revealed by the present spatial autocorrelation analysis.

Wholly Patient-tailored Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation Guided by Spatio-Temporal Dispersion of Electrograms in the Absence of Pulmonary Veins Isolation

PubMed Central

Seitz, Julien; Bars, Clément; Théodore, Guillaume; Beurtheret, Sylvain; Lellouche, Nicolas; Bremondy, Michel; Ferracci, Ange; Faure, Jacques; Penaranda, Guillaume; Yamazaki, Masatoshi; Avula, Uma Mahesh R.; Curel, Laurence; Siame, Sabrina; Berenfeld, Omer; Pisapia, André; Kalifa, Jérôme

2017-01-01

Background The use of intra-cardiac electrograms to guide atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation has yielded conflicting results. We evaluated an electrogram marker of AF drivers: the clustering of electrograms exhibiting spatio-temporal dispersion — regardless of whether such electrograms were fractionated or not. Objective To evaluate the usefulness of spatio-temporal dispersion, a visually recognizable electric footprint of AF drivers, for the ablation of all forms of AF. Methods We prospectively enrolled 105 patients admitted for AF ablation. AF was sequentially mapped in both atria with a 20-pole PentaRay catheter. We tagged and ablated only regions displaying electrogram dispersion during AF. Results were compared to a validation set in which a conventional ablation approach was used (pulmonary vein isolation/stepwise approach). To establish the mechanism underlying spatio-temporal dispersion of AF electrograms, we conducted realistic numerical simulations of AF drivers in a 2-dimensional model and optical mapping of ovine atrial scar-related AF. Results Ablation at dispersion areas terminated AF in 95%. After ablation of 17±10% of the left atrial surface and 18 months of follow-up, the atrial arrhythmia recurrence rate was 15% after 1.4±0.5 procedure/patient vs 41% in the validation set after 1.5±0.5 procedure/patient (arrhythmia free-survival rates: 85% vs 59%, log rank P<0.001). In comparison with the validation set, radiofrequency times (49 ± 21 minutes vs 85 ± 34.5 minutes, p=0.001) and procedure times (168 ± 42 minutes vs. 230 ± 67 minutes, p<.0001) were shorter. In simulations and optical mapping experiments, virtual PentaRay recordings demonstrated that electrogram dispersion is mostly recorded in the vicinity of a driver. Conclusions The clustering of intra-cardiac electrograms exhibiting spatio-temporal dispersion is indicative of AF drivers. Their ablation allows for a non-extensive and patient-tailored approach to AF ablation. Clinical trial

Using Bayesian hierarchical models to better understand nitrate sources and sinks in agricultural watersheds.

PubMed

Xia, Yongqiu; Weller, Donald E; Williams, Meghan N; Jordan, Thomas E; Yan, Xiaoyuan

2016-11-15

Export coefficient models (ECMs) are often used to predict nutrient sources and sinks in watersheds because ECMs can flexibly incorporate processes and have minimal data requirements. However, ECMs do not quantify uncertainties in model structure, parameters, or predictions; nor do they account for spatial and temporal variability in land characteristics, weather, and management practices. We applied Bayesian hierarchical methods to address these problems in ECMs used to predict nitrate concentration in streams. We compared four model formulations, a basic ECM and three models with additional terms to represent competing hypotheses about the sources of error in ECMs and about spatial and temporal variability of coefficients: an ADditive Error Model (ADEM), a SpatioTemporal Parameter Model (STPM), and a Dynamic Parameter Model (DPM). The DPM incorporates a first-order random walk to represent spatial correlation among parameters and a dynamic linear model to accommodate temporal correlation. We tested the modeling approach in a proof of concept using watershed characteristics and nitrate export measurements from watersheds in the Coastal Plain physiographic province of the Chesapeake Bay drainage. Among the four models, the DPM was the best--it had the lowest mean error, explained the most variability (R 2  = 0.99), had the narrowest prediction intervals, and provided the most effective tradeoff between fit complexity (its deviance information criterion, DIC, was 45.6 units lower than any other model, indicating overwhelming support for the DPM). The superiority of the DPM supports its underlying hypothesis that the main source of error in ECMs is their failure to account for parameter variability rather than structural error. Analysis of the fitted DPM coefficients for cropland export and instream retention revealed some of the factors controlling nitrate concentration: cropland nitrate exports were positively related to stream flow and watershed average slope

Self-Organization of Spatio-Temporal Hierarchy via Learning of Dynamic Visual Image Patterns on Action Sequences

PubMed Central

Jung, Minju; Hwang, Jungsik; Tani, Jun

2015-01-01

It is well known that the visual cortex efficiently processes high-dimensional spatial information by using a hierarchical structure. Recently, computational models that were inspired by the spatial hierarchy of the visual cortex have shown remarkable performance in image recognition. Up to now, however, most biological and computational modeling studies have mainly focused on the spatial domain and do not discuss temporal domain processing of the visual cortex. Several studies on the visual cortex and other brain areas associated with motor control support that the brain also uses its hierarchical structure as a processing mechanism for temporal information. Based on the success of previous computational models using spatial hierarchy and temporal hierarchy observed in the brain, the current report introduces a novel neural network model for the recognition of dynamic visual image patterns based solely on the learning of exemplars. This model is characterized by the application of both spatial and temporal constraints on local neural activities, resulting in the self-organization of a spatio-temporal hierarchy necessary for the recognition of complex dynamic visual image patterns. The evaluation with the Weizmann dataset in recognition of a set of prototypical human movement patterns showed that the proposed model is significantly robust in recognizing dynamically occluded visual patterns compared to other baseline models. Furthermore, an evaluation test for the recognition of concatenated sequences of those prototypical movement patterns indicated that the model is endowed with a remarkable capability for the contextual recognition of long-range dynamic visual image patterns. PMID:26147887

Self-Organization of Spatio-Temporal Hierarchy via Learning of Dynamic Visual Image Patterns on Action Sequences.

PubMed

Jung, Minju; Hwang, Jungsik; Tani, Jun

2015-01-01

It is well known that the visual cortex efficiently processes high-dimensional spatial information by using a hierarchical structure. Recently, computational models that were inspired by the spatial hierarchy of the visual cortex have shown remarkable performance in image recognition. Up to now, however, most biological and computational modeling studies have mainly focused on the spatial domain and do not discuss temporal domain processing of the visual cortex. Several studies on the visual cortex and other brain areas associated with motor control support that the brain also uses its hierarchical structure as a processing mechanism for temporal information. Based on the success of previous computational models using spatial hierarchy and temporal hierarchy observed in the brain, the current report introduces a novel neural network model for the recognition of dynamic visual image patterns based solely on the learning of exemplars. This model is characterized by the application of both spatial and temporal constraints on local neural activities, resulting in the self-organization of a spatio-temporal hierarchy necessary for the recognition of complex dynamic visual image patterns. The evaluation with the Weizmann dataset in recognition of a set of prototypical human movement patterns showed that the proposed model is significantly robust in recognizing dynamically occluded visual patterns compared to other baseline models. Furthermore, an evaluation test for the recognition of concatenated sequences of those prototypical movement patterns indicated that the model is endowed with a remarkable capability for the contextual recognition of long-range dynamic visual image patterns.

Understanding spatio-temporal strategies of adult zebrafish exploration in the open field test.

PubMed

Stewart, Adam Michael; Gaikwad, Siddharth; Kyzar, Evan; Kalueff, Allan V

2012-04-27

Zebrafish (Danio rerio) are emerging as a useful model organism for neuroscience research. Mounting evidence suggests that various traditional rodent paradigms may be adapted for testing zebrafish behavior. The open field test is a popular rodent test of novelty exploration, recently applied to zebrafish research. To better understand fish novelty behavior, we exposed adult zebrafish to two different open field arenas for 30 min, assessing the amount and temporal patterning of their exploration. While (similar to rodents) zebrafish scale their locomotory activity depending on the size of the tank, the temporal patterning of their activity was independent of arena size. These observations strikingly parallel similar rodent behaviors, suggesting that spatio-temporal strategies of animal exploration may be evolutionarily conserved across vertebrate species. In addition, we found interesting oscillations in zebrafish exploration, with the per-minute distribution of their horizontal activity demonstrating sinusoidal-like patterns. While such patterning is not reported for rodents and other higher vertebrates, a nonlinear regression analysis confirmed the oscillation patterning of all assessed zebrafish behavioral endpoints in both open field arenas, revealing a potentially important aspect of novelty exploration in lower vertebrates. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Small-Scale Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Bactrocera minax (Enderlein) (Diptera: Tephritidae) Using Probability Kriging.

PubMed

Wang, S Q; Zhang, H Y; Li, Z L

2016-10-01

Understanding spatio-temporal distribution of pest in orchards can provide important information that could be used to design monitoring schemes and establish better means for pest control. In this study, the spatial and temporal distribution of Bactrocera minax (Enderlein) (Diptera: Tephritidae) was assessed, and activity trends were evaluated by using probability kriging. Adults of B. minax were captured in two successive occurrences in a small-scale citrus orchard by using food bait traps, which were placed both inside and outside the orchard. The weekly spatial distribution of B. minax within the orchard and adjacent woods was examined using semivariogram parameters. The edge concentration was discovered during the most weeks in adult occurrence, and the population of the adults aggregated with high probability within a less-than-100-m-wide band on both of the sides of the orchard and the woods. The sequential probability kriged maps showed that the adults were estimated in the marginal zone with higher probability, especially in the early and peak stages. The feeding, ovipositing, and mating behaviors of B. minax are possible explanations for these spatio-temporal patterns. Therefore, spatial arrangement and distance to the forest edge of traps or spraying spot should be considered to enhance pest control on B. minax in small-scale orchards.

Spatio-temporal variation in Helicoverpa egg parasitism by Trichogramma in a tropical Bt-transgenic cotton landscape

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of insects in agroecosystems is crucial when developing effective management strategies that emphasise biological control of pests. Wild populations of Trichogramma Westwood egg parasitoids are utilised for biological suppression of the potentially resistan...

A Kinect based sign language recognition system using spatio-temporal features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Memiş, Abbas; Albayrak, Songül

2013-12-01

This paper presents a sign language recognition system that uses spatio-temporal features on RGB video images and depth maps for dynamic gestures of Turkish Sign Language. Proposed system uses motion differences and accumulation approach for temporal gesture analysis. Motion accumulation method, which is an effective method for temporal domain analysis of gestures, produces an accumulated motion image by combining differences of successive video frames. Then, 2D Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) is applied to accumulated motion images and temporal domain features transformed into spatial domain. These processes are performed on both RGB images and depth maps separately. DCT coefficients that represent sign gestures are picked up via zigzag scanning and feature vectors are generated. In order to recognize sign gestures, K-Nearest Neighbor classifier with Manhattan distance is performed. Performance of the proposed sign language recognition system is evaluated on a sign database that contains 1002 isolated dynamic signs belongs to 111 words of Turkish Sign Language (TSL) in three different categories. Proposed sign language recognition system has promising success rates.

Spatio-temporal distribution of soil nitrogen in Poyang lake ecological economic zone (South-China).

PubMed

Jiang, Yefeng; Rao, Lei; Sun, Kai; Han, Yi; Guo, Xi

2018-06-01

Revealing the spatio-temporal distribution of soil nitrogen (N) contributes to N management and prevention of N pollution. The objective of this work is to study the spatio-temporal distribution of soil N and their driving factors in the topsoil (0-20 cm) of farmland in Yugan county, China in 1982 and 2012. Data were collected from 200 sampling sites of the second national soil survey in Yugan in 1982 and 423 sampling sites of the soil testing and formula fertilization project in 2012. On average total N (TN) and available N (AN) significantly increased from 1.50 g kg -1 and 153.04 mg kg -1 in 1982 to 1.58 g kg -1 and 179.75 mg kg -1 in 2012, respectively. The distance of spatial autocorrelation for TN increased from 2.79 to 6.18 km and from 2.97 to 18.00 km for AN from 1982 to 2012. The nugget/sill ratio for TN (0.472 in 1982 and 0.581 in 2012) indicated that soil TN driving by natural characteristics in 1982 to human activities in 2012. The nugget/sill ratio for soil AN (0.471 in 1982 and 0.688 in 2012) indicated that soil AN is more influenced by human activities. The major factors driving the spatio-temporal distribution of soil N was N application rate. To promote the sustainable development of agriculture and eco-environment, we should improve the awareness of farmers on chemical fertilizers (particularly N) and the level of N fertilizer management, increase the use of manure and organic fertilizer and facilitate rational fertilization by farmers. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A population-based spatio-temporal analysis of Clostridium difficile infection in Queensland, Australia over a 10-year period.

PubMed

Furuya-Kanamori, Luis; Robson, Jenny; Soares Magalhães, Ricardo J; Yakob, Laith; McKenzie, Samantha J; Paterson, David L; Riley, Thomas V; Clements, Archie C A

2014-11-01

To identify the spatio-temporal patterns and environmental factors associated with Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) in Queensland, Australia. Data from patients tested for CDI were collected from 392 postcodes across Queensland between May 2003 and December 2012. A binomial logistic regression model, with CDI status as the outcome, was built in a Bayesian framework, incorporating fixed effects for sex, age, source of the sample (healthcare facility or community), elevation, rainfall, land surface temperature, seasons of the year, time in months and spatially unstructured random effects at the postcode level. C. difficile was identified in 13.1% of the samples, the proportion significantly increased over the study period from 5.9% in 2003 to 18.8% in 2012. CDI peaked in summer (14.6%) and was at its lowest in autumn (10.1%). Other factors significantly associated with CDI included female sex (OR: 1.08; 95%CI: 1.01-1.14), community source samples (OR: 1.12; 95%CI: 1.05-1.20), and higher rainfall (OR: 1.09; 95%CI: 1.02-1.17). There was no significant spatial variation in CDI after accounting for the fixed effects in the model. There was an increasing annual trend in CDI in Queensland from 2003 to 2012. Peaks of CDI were found in summer (December-February), which is at odds with the current epidemiological pattern described for northern hemisphere countries. Epidemiologically plausible explanations for this disparity require further investigation. Copyright © 2014 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal dependencies between hospital beds, physicians and health expenditure using visual variables and data classification in statistical table

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medyńska-Gulij, Beata; Cybulski, Paweł

2016-06-01

This paper analyses the use of table visual variables of statistical data of hospital beds as an important tool for revealing spatio-temporal dependencies. It is argued that some of conclusions from the data about public health and public expenditure on health have a spatio-temporal reference. Different from previous studies, this article adopts combination of cartographic pragmatics and spatial visualization with previous conclusions made in public health literature. While the significant conclusions about health care and economic factors has been highlighted in research papers, this article is the first to apply visual analysis to statistical table together with maps which is called previsualisation.

Exploring the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Reservoir Hosts, Vectors, and Human Hosts of West Nile Virus: A Review of the Recent Literature

PubMed Central

Ozdenerol, Esra; Taff, Gregory N.; Akkus, Cem

2013-01-01

Over the last two decades West Nile Virus (WNV) has been responsible for significant disease outbreaks in humans and animals in many parts of the World. Its extremely rapid global diffusion argues for a better understanding of its geographic extent. The purpose of this inquiry was to explore spatio-temporal patterns of WNV using geospatial technologies to study populations of the reservoir hosts, vectors, and human hosts, in addition to the spatio-temporal interactions among these populations. Review of the recent literature on spatial WNV disease risk modeling led to the conclusion that numerous environmental factors might be critical for its dissemination. New Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based studies are monitoring occurrence at the macro-level, and helping pinpoint areas of occurrence at the micro-level, where geographically-targeted, species-specific control measures are sometimes taken and more sophisticated methods of surveillance have been used. PMID:24284356

Spatio-temporal propagation of cascading overload failures in spatially embedded networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jichang; Li, Daqing; Sanhedrai, Hillel; Cohen, Reuven; Havlin, Shlomo

2016-01-01

Different from the direct contact in epidemics spread, overload failures propagate through hidden functional dependencies. Many studies focused on the critical conditions and catastrophic consequences of cascading failures. However, to understand the network vulnerability and mitigate the cascading overload failures, the knowledge of how the failures propagate in time and space is essential but still missing. Here we study the spatio-temporal propagation behaviour of cascading overload failures analytically and numerically on spatially embedded networks. The cascading overload failures are found to spread radially from the centre of the initial failure with an approximately constant velocity. The propagation velocity decreases with increasing tolerance, and can be well predicted by our theoretical framework with one single correction for all the tolerance values. This propagation velocity is found similar in various model networks and real network structures. Our findings may help to predict the dynamics of cascading overload failures in realistic systems.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of pond use and recruitment in Florida gopher frogs (Rana capito aesopus)

Treesearch

Cathryn H. Greenberg

2001-01-01

This study examines spatio-temporal dynamics of Florida gopher frog (Rang capito aesopus) breeding and juvenile recruitment. Ponds were situated within a hardwood-invaded or a savanna-like longleaf pine-wiregrass upland matrix. Movement (N = 1444) was monitored using intermittent drift fences with pitfall and funnel traps at eight...

Spatio-temporal foreshock activity during stick-slip experiments of large rock samples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsujimura, Y.; Kawakata, H.; Fukuyama, E.; Yamashita, F.; Xu, S.; Mizoguchi, K.; Takizawa, S.; Hirano, S.

2016-12-01

Foreshock activity has sometimes been reported for large earthquakes, and has been roughly classified into the following two classes. For shallow intraplate earthquakes, foreshocks occurred in the vicinity of the mainshock hypocenter (e.g., Doi and Kawakata, 2012; 2013). And for intraplate subduction earthquakes, foreshock hypocenters migrated toward the mainshock hypocenter (Kato, et al., 2012; Yagi et al., 2014). To understand how foreshocks occur, it is useful to investigate the spatio-temporal activities of foreshocks in the laboratory experiments under controlled conditions. We have conducted stick-slip experiments by using a large-scale biaxial friction apparatus at NIED in Japan (e.g., Fukuyama et al., 2014). Our previous results showed that stick-slip events repeatedly occurred in a run, but only those later events were preceded by foreshocks. Kawakata et al. (2014) inferred that the gouge generated during the run was an important key for foreshock occurrence. In this study, we proceeded to carry out stick-slip experiments of large rock samples whose interface (fault plane) is 1.5 meter long and 0.5 meter wide. After some runs to generate fault gouge between the interface. In the current experiments, we investigated spatio-temporal activities of foreshocks. We detected foreshocks from waveform records of 3D array of piezo-electric sensors. Our new results showed that more than three foreshocks (typically about twenty) had occurred during each stick-slip event, in contrast to the few foreshocks observed during previous experiments without pre-existing gouge. Next, we estimated the hypocenter locations of the stick-slip events, and found that they were located near the opposite end to the loading point. In addition, we observed a migration of foreshock hypocenters toward the hypocenter of each stick-slip event. This suggests that the foreshock activity observed in our current experiments was similar to that for the interplate earthquakes in terms of the

Semi-supervised tracking of extreme weather events in global spatio-temporal climate datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. K.; Prabhat, M.; Williams, D. N.

2017-12-01

Deep neural networks have been successfully applied to solve problem to detect extreme weather events in large scale climate datasets and attend superior performance that overshadows all previous hand-crafted methods. Recent work has shown that multichannel spatiotemporal encoder-decoder CNN architecture is able to localize events in semi-supervised bounding box. Motivated by this work, we propose new learning metric based on Variational Auto-Encoders (VAE) and Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) to track extreme weather events in spatio-temporal dataset. We consider spatio-temporal object tracking problems as learning probabilistic distribution of continuous latent features of auto-encoder using stochastic variational inference. For this, we assume that our datasets are i.i.d and latent features is able to be modeled by Gaussian distribution. In proposed metric, we first train VAE to generate approximate posterior given multichannel climate input with an extreme climate event at fixed time. Then, we predict bounding box, location and class of extreme climate events using convolutional layers given input concatenating three features including embedding, sampled mean and standard deviation. Lastly, we train LSTM with concatenated input to learn timely information of dataset by recurrently feeding output back to next time-step's input of VAE. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we show the first semi-supervised end-to-end architecture based on VAE to track extreme weather events which can apply to massive scaled unlabeled climate datasets. Second, the information of timely movement of events is considered for bounding box prediction using LSTM which can improve accuracy of localization. To our knowledge, this technique has not been explored neither in climate community or in Machine Learning community.

Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Vector-Host Contact (VHC) Ratios and Ecological Niche Modeling of the West Nile Virus Mosquito Vector, Culex quinquefasciatus, in the City of New Orleans, LA, USA

PubMed Central

Michaels, Sarah R.; Riegel, Claudia; Pereira, Roberto M.; Zipperer, Wayne; Lockaby, B. Graeme; Koehler, Philip G.

2017-01-01

The consistent sporadic transmission of West Nile Virus (WNV) in the city of New Orleans justifies the need for distribution risk maps highlighting human risk of mosquito bites. We modeled the influence of biophysical and socioeconomic metrics on the spatio-temporal distributions of presence/vector-host contact (VHC) ratios of WNV vector, Culex quinquefasciatus, within their flight range. Biophysical and socioeconomic data were extracted within 5-km buffer radii around sampling localities of gravid female Culex quinquefasciatus. The spatio-temporal correlations between VHC data and 33 variables, including climate, land use-land cover (LULC), socioeconomic, and land surface terrain were analyzed using stepwise linear regression models (RM). Using MaxEnt, we developed a distribution model using the correlated predicting variables. Only 12 factors showed significant correlations with spatial distribution of VHC ratios (R2 = 81.62, p < 0.01). Non-forested wetland (NFWL), tree density (TD) and residential-urban (RU) settings demonstrated the strongest relationship. The VHC ratios showed monthly environmental resilience in terms of number and type of influential factors. The highest prediction power of RU and other urban and built up land (OUBL), was demonstrated during May–August. This association was positively correlated with the onset of the mosquito WNV infection rate during June. These findings were confirmed by the Jackknife analysis in MaxEnt and independently collected field validation points. The spatial and temporal correlations of VHC ratios and their response to the predicting variables are discussed. PMID:28786934

Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Vector-Host Contact (VHC) Ratios and Ecological Niche Modeling of the West Nile Virus Mosquito Vector, Culex quinquefasciatus, in the City of New Orleans, LA, USA.

PubMed

Sallam, Mohamed F; Michaels, Sarah R; Riegel, Claudia; Pereira, Roberto M; Zipperer, Wayne; Lockaby, B Graeme; Koehler, Philip G

2017-08-08

The consistent sporadic transmission of West Nile Virus (WNV) in the city of New Orleans justifies the need for distribution risk maps highlighting human risk of mosquito bites. We modeled the influence of biophysical and socioeconomic metrics on the spatio-temporal distributions of presence/vector-host contact (VHC) ratios of WNV vector, Culex quinquefasciatus , within their flight range . Biophysical and socioeconomic data were extracted within 5-km buffer radii around sampling localities of gravid female Culex quinquefasciatus . The spatio-temporal correlations between VHC data and 33 variables, including climate, land use-land cover (LULC), socioeconomic, and land surface terrain were analyzed using stepwise linear regression models (RM). Using MaxEnt, we developed a distribution model using the correlated predicting variables. Only 12 factors showed significant correlations with spatial distribution of VHC ratios ( R ² = 81.62, p < 0.01). Non-forested wetland (NFWL), tree density (TD) and residential-urban (RU) settings demonstrated the strongest relationship. The VHC ratios showed monthly environmental resilience in terms of number and type of influential factors. The highest prediction power of RU and other urban and built up land (OUBL), was demonstrated during May-August. This association was positively correlated with the onset of the mosquito WNV infection rate during June. These findings were confirmed by the Jackknife analysis in MaxEnt and independently collected field validation points. The spatial and temporal correlations of VHC ratios and their response to the predicting variables are discussed.

The Huaihe Basin Water Resource and Water Quality Management Platform Implemented with a Spatio-Temporal Data Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Zhang, W.; Yan, C.

2012-07-01

Presently, planning and assessment in maintenance, renewal and decision-making for watershed hydrology, water resource management and water quality assessment are evolving toward complex, spatially explicit regional environmental assessments. These problems have to be addressed with object-oriented spatio-temporal data models that can restore, manage, query and visualize various historic and updated basic information concerning with watershed hydrology, water resource management and water quality as well as compute and evaluate the watershed environmental conditions so as to provide online forecasting to police-makers and relevant authorities for supporting decision-making. The extensive data requirements and the difficult task of building input parameter files, however, has long been an obstacle to use of such complex models timely and effectively by resource managers. Success depends on an integrated approach that brings together scientific, education and training advances made across many individual disciplines and modified to fit the needs of the individuals and groups who must write, implement, evaluate, and adjust their watershed management plans. The centre for Hydro-science Research, Nanjing University, in cooperation with the relevant watershed management authorities, has developed a WebGIS management platform to facilitate this complex process. Improve the management of watersheds over the Huaihe basin through the development, promotion and use of a web-based, user-friendly, geospatial watershed management data and decision support system (WMDDSS) involved many difficulties for the development of this complicated System. In terms of the spatial and temporal characteristics of historic and currently available information on meteorological, hydrological, geographical, environmental and other relevant disciplines, we designed an object-oriented spatiotemporal data model that combines spatial, attribute and temporal information to implement the management

Fire, native species, and soil resource interactions influence the spatio-temporal invasion pattern of Bromus tectorum

Treesearch

Michael J. Gundale; Steve Sutherland; Thomas H. DeLuca; others

2008-01-01

Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) is an invasive annual that occupies perennial grass and shrub communities throughout the western United States. Bromus tectorum exhibits an intriguing spatio-temporal pattern of invasion in low elevation ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa/bunchgrass communities in western Montana where it...

Bayesian parameter estimation for nonlinear modelling of biological pathways.

PubMed

Ghasemi, Omid; Lindsey, Merry L; Yang, Tianyi; Nguyen, Nguyen; Huang, Yufei; Jin, Yu-Fang

2011-01-01

The availability of temporal measurements on biological experiments has significantly promoted research areas in systems biology. To gain insight into the interaction and regulation of biological systems, mathematical frameworks such as ordinary differential equations have been widely applied to model biological pathways and interpret the temporal data. Hill equations are the preferred formats to represent the reaction rate in differential equation frameworks, due to their simple structures and their capabilities for easy fitting to saturated experimental measurements. However, Hill equations are highly nonlinearly parameterized functions, and parameters in these functions cannot be measured easily. Additionally, because of its high nonlinearity, adaptive parameter estimation algorithms developed for linear parameterized differential equations cannot be applied. Therefore, parameter estimation in nonlinearly parameterized differential equation models for biological pathways is both challenging and rewarding. In this study, we propose a Bayesian parameter estimation algorithm to estimate parameters in nonlinear mathematical models for biological pathways using time series data. We used the Runge-Kutta method to transform differential equations to difference equations assuming a known structure of the differential equations. This transformation allowed us to generate predictions dependent on previous states and to apply a Bayesian approach, namely, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. We applied this approach to the biological pathways involved in the left ventricle (LV) response to myocardial infarction (MI) and verified our algorithm by estimating two parameters in a Hill equation embedded in the nonlinear model. We further evaluated our estimation performance with different parameter settings and signal to noise ratios. Our results demonstrated the effectiveness of the algorithm for both linearly and nonlinearly parameterized dynamic systems. Our proposed

Higher order memories for objects encountered in different spatio-temporal contexts in mice: evidence for episodic memory.

PubMed

Dere, Ekrem; Silva, Maria A De Souza; Huston, Joseph P

2004-01-01

The ability to build higher order multi-modal memories comprising information about the spatio-temporal context of events has been termed 'episodic memory'. Deficits in episodic memory are apparent in a number of neuropsychiatric diseases. Unfortunately, the development of animal models of episodic memory has made little progress. Towards the goal of such a model we devised an object exploration task for mice, providing evidence that rodents can associate object, spatial and temporal information. In our task the mice learned the temporal sequence by which identical objects were introduced into two different contexts. The 'what' component of an episodic memory was operationalized via physically distinct objects; the 'where' component through physically different contexts, and, most importantly, the 'when' component via the context-specific inverted sequence in which four objects were presented. Our results suggest that mice are able to recollect the inverted temporal sequence in which identical objects were introduced into two distinct environments. During two consecutive test trials mice showed an inverse context-specific exploration pattern regarding identical objects that were previously encountered with even frequencies. It seems that the contexts served as discriminative stimuli signaling which of the two sequences are decisive during the two test trials.

Spatio-temporal analysis of wildfire ignitions in the St. Johns River Water Management District, Florida

Treesearch

Marc G. Genton; David T. Butry; Marcia L. Gumpertz; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2006-01-01

We analyse the spatio-temporal structure of wildfire ignitions in the St. Johns River Water Management District in north-eastern Florida. We show, using tools to analyse point patterns (e.g. the L-function), that wildfire events occur in clusters. Clustering of these events correlates with irregular distribution of fire ignitions, including lightning...

Bayesian state space models for dynamic genetic network construction across multiple tissues.

PubMed

Liang, Yulan; Kelemen, Arpad

2016-08-01

Construction of gene-gene interaction networks and potential pathways is a challenging and important problem in genomic research for complex diseases while estimating the dynamic changes of the temporal correlations and non-stationarity are the keys in this process. In this paper, we develop dynamic state space models with hierarchical Bayesian settings to tackle this challenge for inferring the dynamic profiles and genetic networks associated with disease treatments. We treat both the stochastic transition matrix and the observation matrix time-variant and include temporal correlation structures in the covariance matrix estimations in the multivariate Bayesian state space models. The unevenly spaced short time courses with unseen time points are treated as hidden state variables. Hierarchical Bayesian approaches with various prior and hyper-prior models with Monte Carlo Markov Chain and Gibbs sampling algorithms are used to estimate the model parameters and the hidden state variables. We apply the proposed Hierarchical Bayesian state space models to multiple tissues (liver, skeletal muscle, and kidney) Affymetrix time course data sets following corticosteroid (CS) drug administration. Both simulation and real data analysis results show that the genomic changes over time and gene-gene interaction in response to CS treatment can be well captured by the proposed models. The proposed dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian state space modeling approaches could be expanded and applied to other large scale genomic data, such as next generation sequence (NGS) combined with real time and time varying electronic health record (EHR) for more comprehensive and robust systematic and network based analysis in order to transform big biomedical data into predictions and diagnostics for precision medicine and personalized healthcare with better decision making and patient outcomes.

Transition from complete synchronization to spatio-temporal chaos in coupled chaotic systems with nonhyperbolic and hyperbolic attractors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybalova, Elena; Semenova, Nadezhda; Strelkova, Galina; Anishchenko, Vadim

2017-06-01

We study the transition from coherence (complete synchronization) to incoherence (spatio-temporal chaos) in ensembles of nonlocally coupled chaotic maps with nonhyperbolic and hyperbolic attractors. As basic models of a partial element we use the Henon map and the Lozi map. We show that the transition to incoherence in a ring of coupled Henon maps occurs through the appearance of phase and amplitude chimera states. An ensemble of coupled Lozi maps demonstrates the coherence-incoherence transition via solitary states and no chimera states are observed in this case.

Spatio-Temporal Variability of Water Vapor in the Free Troposphere Investigated by Dial and Ftir Vertical Soundings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogelmann, H.; Sussmann, R.; Trickl, T.; Reichert, A.

2016-06-01

We report on the free tropospheric spatio-temporal variability of water vapor investigated by the analysis of a five-year period of water vapor vertical soundings above Mt. Zugspitze (2962 m a.s.l., Germany). Our results are obtained from a combination of measurements of vertically integrated water vapor (IWV), recorded with a solar Fourier Transform InfraRed (FTIR) spectrometer and of water vapor profiles recorded with the nearby differential absorption lidar (DIAL). The special geometrical arrangement of one zenith-viewing and one sun-pointing instrument and the temporal resolution of both optical instruments allow for an investigation of the spatio-temporal variability of IWV on a spatial scale of less than one kilometer and on a time scale of less than one hour. We investigated the short-term variability of both IWV and water vapor profiles from statistical analyses. The latter was also examined by case studies with a clear assignment to certain atmospheric processes as local convection or long-range transport. This study is described in great detail in our recent publication [1].

Spatio-temporal propagation of cascading overload failures in spatially embedded networks

PubMed Central

Zhao, Jichang; Li, Daqing; Sanhedrai, Hillel; Cohen, Reuven; Havlin, Shlomo

2016-01-01

Different from the direct contact in epidemics spread, overload failures propagate through hidden functional dependencies. Many studies focused on the critical conditions and catastrophic consequences of cascading failures. However, to understand the network vulnerability and mitigate the cascading overload failures, the knowledge of how the failures propagate in time and space is essential but still missing. Here we study the spatio-temporal propagation behaviour of cascading overload failures analytically and numerically on spatially embedded networks. The cascading overload failures are found to spread radially from the centre of the initial failure with an approximately constant velocity. The propagation velocity decreases with increasing tolerance, and can be well predicted by our theoretical framework with one single correction for all the tolerance values. This propagation velocity is found similar in various model networks and real network structures. Our findings may help to predict the dynamics of cascading overload failures in realistic systems. PMID:26754065

Spatio-temporal prediction of daily temperatures using time-series of MODIS LST images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hengl, Tomislav; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.; Perčec Tadić, Melita; Pebesma, Edzer J.

2012-01-01

A computational framework to generate daily temperature maps using time-series of publicly available MODIS MOD11A2 product Land Surface Temperature (LST) images (1 km resolution; 8-day composites) is illustrated using temperature measurements from the national network of meteorological stations (159) in Croatia. The input data set contains 57,282 ground measurements of daily temperature for the year 2008. Temperature was modeled as a function of latitude, longitude, distance from the sea, elevation, time, insolation, and the MODIS LST images. The original rasters were first converted to principal components to reduce noise and filter missing pixels in the LST images. The residual were next analyzed for spatio-temporal auto-correlation; sum-metric separable variograms were fitted to account for zonal and geometric space-time anisotropy. The final predictions were generated for time-slices of a 3D space-time cube, constructed in the R environment for statistical computing. The results show that the space-time regression model can explain a significant part of the variation in station-data (84%). MODIS LST 8-day (cloud-free) images are unbiased estimator of the daily temperature, but with relatively low precision (±4.1°C); however their added value is that they systematically improve detection of local changes in land surface temperature due to local meteorological conditions and/or active heat sources (urban areas, land cover classes). The results of 10-fold cross-validation show that use of spatio-temporal regression-kriging and incorporation of time-series of remote sensing images leads to significantly more accurate maps of temperature than if plain spatial techniques were used. The average (global) accuracy of mapping temperature was ±2.4°C. The regression-kriging explained 91% of variability in daily temperatures, compared to 44% for ordinary kriging. Further software advancement—interactive space-time variogram exploration and automated retrieval

Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish spawning aggregation and its fishery in the Gulf of California

PubMed Central

Erisman, Brad; Aburto-Oropeza, Octavio; Gonzalez-Abraham, Charlotte; Mascareñas-Osorio, Ismael; Moreno-Báez, Marcia; Hastings, Philip A.

2012-01-01

We engaged in cooperative research with fishers and stakeholders to characterize the fine-scale, spatio-temporal characteristics of spawning behavior in an aggregating marine fish (Cynoscion othonopterus: Sciaenidae) and coincident activities of its commercial fishery in the Upper Gulf of California. Approximately 1.5–1.8 million fish are harvested annually from spawning aggregations of C. othonopterus during 21–25 days of fishing and within an area of 1,149 km2 of a biosphere reserve. Spawning and fishing are synchronized on a semi-lunar cycle, with peaks in both occurring 5 to 2 days before the new and full moon, and fishing intensity and catch are highest at the spawning grounds within a no-take reserve. Results of this study demonstrate the benefits of combining GPS data loggers, fisheries data, biological surveys, and cooperative research with fishers to produce spatio-temporally explicit information relevant to the science and management of fish spawning aggregations and the spatial planning of marine reserves. PMID:22359736

Spatio-temporal Model of Endogenous ROS and Raft-Dependent WNT/Beta-Catenin Signaling Driving Cell Fate Commitment in Human Neural Progenitor Cells

PubMed Central

Haack, Fiete; Lemcke, Heiko; Ewald, Roland; Rharass, Tareck; Uhrmacher, Adelinde M.

2015-01-01

Canonical WNT/β-catenin signaling is a central pathway in embryonic development, but it is also connected to a number of cancers and developmental disorders. Here we apply a combined in-vitro and in-silico approach to investigate the spatio-temporal regulation of WNT/β-catenin signaling during the early neural differentiation process of human neural progenitors cells (hNPCs), which form a new prospect for replacement therapies in the context of neurodegenerative diseases. Experimental measurements indicate a second signal mechanism, in addition to canonical WNT signaling, being involved in the regulation of nuclear β-catenin levels during the cell fate commitment phase of neural differentiation. We find that the biphasic activation of β-catenin signaling observed experimentally can only be explained through a model that combines Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) and raft dependent WNT/β-catenin signaling. Accordingly after initiation of differentiation endogenous ROS activates DVL in a redox-dependent manner leading to a transient activation of down-stream β-catenin signaling, followed by continuous auto/paracrine WNT signaling, which crucially depends on lipid rafts. Our simulation studies further illustrate the elaborate spatio-temporal regulation of DVL, which, depending on its concentration and localization, may either act as direct inducer of the transient ROS/β-catenin signal or as amplifier during continuous auto-/parcrine WNT/β-catenin signaling. In addition we provide the first stochastic computational model of WNT/β-catenin signaling that combines membrane-related and intracellular processes, including lipid rafts/receptor dynamics as well as WNT- and ROS-dependent β-catenin activation. The model’s predictive ability is demonstrated under a wide range of varying conditions for in-vitro and in-silico reference data sets. Our in-silico approach is realized in a multi-level rule-based language, that facilitates the extension and modification of the

Automated detection of qualitative spatio-temporal features in electrocardiac activation maps.

PubMed

Ironi, Liliana; Tentoni, Stefania

2007-02-01

This paper describes a piece of work aiming at the realization of a tool for the automated interpretation of electrocardiac maps. Such maps can capture a number of electrical conduction pathologies, such as arrhytmia, that can be missed by the analysis of traditional electrocardiograms. But, their introduction into the clinical practice is still far away as their interpretation requires skills that belongs to very few experts. Then, an automated interpretation tool would bridge the gap between the established research outcome and clinical practice with a consequent great impact on health care. Qualitative spatial reasoning can play a crucial role in the identification of spatio-temporal patterns and salient features that characterize the heart electrical activity. We adopted the spatial aggregation (SA) conceptual framework and an interplay of numerical and qualitative information to extract features from epicardial maps, and to make them available for reasoning tasks. Our focus is on epicardial activation isochrone maps as they are a synthetic representation of spatio-temporal aspects of the propagation of the electrical excitation. We provide a computational SA-based methodology to extract, from 3D epicardial data gathered over time, (1) the excitation wavefront structure, and (2) the salient features that characterize wavefront propagation and visually correspond to specific geometric objects. The proposed methodology provides a robust and efficient way to identify salient pieces of information in activation time maps. The hierarchical structure of the abstracted geometric objects, crucial in capturing the prominent information, facilitates the definition of general rules necessary to infer the correlation between pathophysiological patterns and wavefront structure and propagation.

Spatio-temporal patterns of gun violence in Syracuse, New York 2009-2015.

PubMed

Larsen, David A; Lane, Sandra; Jennings-Bey, Timothy; Haygood-El, Arnett; Brundage, Kim; Rubinstein, Robert A

2017-01-01

Gun violence in the United States of America is a large public health problem that disproportionately affects urban areas. The epidemiology of gun violence reflects various aspects of an infectious disease including spatial and temporal clustering. We examined the spatial and temporal trends of gun violence in Syracuse, New York, a city of 145,000. We used a spatial scan statistic to reveal spatio-temporal clusters of gunshots investigated and corroborated by Syracuse City Police Department for the years 2009-2015. We also examined predictors of areas with increased gun violence using a multi-level zero-inflated Poisson regression with data from the 2010 census. Two space-time clusters of gun violence were revealed in the city. Higher rates of segregation, poverty and the summer months were all associated with increased risk of gun violence. Previous gunshots in the area were associated with a 26.8% increase in the risk of gun violence. Gun violence in Syracuse, NY is both spatially and temporally stable, with some neighborhoods of the city greatly afflicted.

Spatio-temporal patterns of gun violence in Syracuse, New York 2009-2015

PubMed Central

Lane, Sandra; Jennings-Bey, Timothy; Haygood-El, Arnett; Brundage, Kim; Rubinstein, Robert A.

2017-01-01

Gun violence in the United States of America is a large public health problem that disproportionately affects urban areas. The epidemiology of gun violence reflects various aspects of an infectious disease including spatial and temporal clustering. We examined the spatial and temporal trends of gun violence in Syracuse, New York, a city of 145,000. We used a spatial scan statistic to reveal spatio-temporal clusters of gunshots investigated and corroborated by Syracuse City Police Department for the years 2009–2015. We also examined predictors of areas with increased gun violence using a multi-level zero-inflated Poisson regression with data from the 2010 census. Two space-time clusters of gun violence were revealed in the city. Higher rates of segregation, poverty and the summer months were all associated with increased risk of gun violence. Previous gunshots in the area were associated with a 26.8% increase in the risk of gun violence. Gun violence in Syracuse, NY is both spatially and temporally stable, with some neighborhoods of the city greatly afflicted. PMID:28319125

A spatiotemporal dengue fever early warning model accounting for nonlinear associations with meteorological factors: a Bayesian maximum entropy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chien, Lung-Chang

2014-05-01

Dengue fever has been identified as one of the most widespread vector-borne diseases in tropical and sub-tropical. In the last decade, dengue is an emerging infectious disease epidemic in Taiwan especially in the southern area where have annually high incidences. For the purpose of disease prevention and control, an early warning system is urgently needed. Previous studies have showed significant relationships between climate variables, in particular, rainfall and temperature, and the temporal epidemic patterns of dengue cases. However, the transmission of the dengue fever is a complex interactive process that mostly understated the composite space-time effects of dengue fever. This study proposes developing a one-week ahead warning system of dengue fever epidemics in the southern Taiwan that considered nonlinear associations between weekly dengue cases and meteorological factors across space and time. The early warning system based on an integration of distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and stochastic Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis. The study identified the most significant meteorological measures including weekly minimum temperature and maximum 24-hour rainfall with continuous 15-week lagged time to dengue cases variation under condition of uncertainty. Subsequently, the combination of nonlinear lagged effects of climate variables and space-time dependence function is implemented via a Bayesian framework to predict dengue fever occurrences in the southern Taiwan during 2012. The result shows the early warning system is useful for providing potential outbreak spatio-temporal prediction of dengue fever distribution. In conclusion, the proposed approach can provide a practical disease control tool for environmental regulators seeking more effective strategies for dengue fever prevention.

A Novel Lead Configuration for Optimal Spatio-Temporal Detection of Intracardiac Repolarization Alternans

PubMed Central

Weiss, Eric H.; Merchant, Faisal M.; d’Avila, Andre; Foley, Lori; Reddy, Vivek Y.; Singh, Jagmeet P.; Mela, Theofanie; Ruskin, Jeremy N.; Armoundas, Antonis A.

2011-01-01

Background Electrical alternans is a pattern of variation in the shape of electrocardiographic waveform that occurs every other beat. In humans, alternation in ventricular repolarization, known as repolarization alternans (RA), has been associated with increased vulnerability to ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation and sudden cardiac death. Methods and Results This study investigates the spatio-temporal variability of intracardiac RA and its relationship to body surface RA in an acute myocardial ischemia model in swine. We developed a real-time multi-channel repolarization signal acquisition, display and analysis system to record electrocardiographic signals from catheters in the right ventricle, coronary sinus, left ventricle, and epicardial surface prior to and following circumflex coronary artery balloon occlusion. We found that RA is detectable within 4 minutes following the onset ischemia, and is most prominently seen during the first half of the repolarization interval. Ischemia-induced RA was detectable on unipolar and bipolar leads (both in near- and far-field configurations) and on body surface leads. Far-field bipolar intracardiac leads were more sensitive for RA detection than body surface leads, with the probability of body surface RA detection increasing as the number of intracardiac leads detecting RA increased, approaching 100% when at least three intracardiac leads detected RA. We developed a novel, clinically-applicable intracardiac lead system based on a triangular arrangement of leads spanning the right ventricular (RV) and coronary sinus (CS) catheters which provided the highest sensitivity for intracardiac RA detection when compared to any other far-field bipolar sensing configurations (p < 0.0001). Conclusions In conclusion, intracardiac alternans, a complex spatio-temporal phenomenon associated with arrhythmia susceptibility and sudden cardiac death, can be reliably detected through a novel triangular RV-CS lead configuration. PMID:21430127

Spatio-temporal interpolation of soil moisture in 3D+T using automated sensor network data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasch, C.; Hengl, T.; Magney, T. S.; Brown, D. J.; Gräler, B.

2014-12-01

Soil sensor networks provide frequent in situ measurements of dynamic soil properties at fixed locations, producing data in 2- or 3-dimensions and through time (2D+T and 3D+T). Spatio-temporal interpolation of 3D+T point data produces continuous estimates that can then be used for prediction at unsampled times and locations, as input for process models, and can simply aid in visualization of properties through space and time. Regression-kriging with 3D and 2D+T data has successfully been implemented, but currently the field of geostatistics lacks an analytical framework for modeling 3D+T data. Our objective is to develop robust 3D+T models for mapping dynamic soil data that has been collected with high spatial and temporal resolution. For this analysis, we use data collected from a sensor network installed on the R.J. Cook Agronomy Farm (CAF), a 37-ha Long-Term Agro-Ecosystem Research (LTAR) site in Pullman, WA. For five years, the sensors have collected hourly measurements of soil volumetric water content at 42 locations and five depths. The CAF dataset also includes a digital elevation model and derivatives, a soil unit description map, crop rotations, electromagnetic induction surveys, daily meteorological data, and seasonal satellite imagery. The soil-water sensor data, combined with the spatial and temporal covariates, provide an ideal dataset for developing 3D+T models. The presentation will include preliminary results and address main implementation strategies.

[Spatio-temporal variations of origin, distribution and diffusion of Oncomelania hupensis in Yangtze River Basin].

PubMed

Deng, Chen; Li-Yong, Wen

2017-10-24

As the only intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum, Oncomelania hupensis in China is mainly distributed in the Yangtze River Basin. The origin of the O. hupensis and the spatio-temporal variations of its distribution and diffusion in the Yangtze River Basin and the influencing factors, as well as significances in schistosomiasis elimination in China are reviewed in this paper.

Spatio-temporal cerebral blood flow perfusion patterns in cortical spreading depression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verisokin, Andrey Yu.; Verveyko, Darya V.; Postnov, Dmitry E.

2017-04-01

Cortical spreading depression (CSD) is an example of one of the most common abnormalities in biophysical brain functioning. Despite the fact that there are many mathematical models describing the cortical spreading depression (CSD), most of them do not take into consideration the role of redistribution of cerebral blood flow (CBF), that results in the formation of spatio-temporal patterns. The paper presents a mathematical model, which successfully explains the CBD role in the CSD process. Numerical study of this model has revealed the formation of stationary dissipative structures, visually analogous to Turing structures. However, the mechanism of their formation is not diffusion. We show these structures occur due to another type of spatial coupling, that is related to tissue perfusion rate. The proposed model predicts that at similar state of neurons the distribution of blood flow and oxygenation may by different. Currently, this effect is not taken into account when the Blood oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) contrast imaging used in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Thus, the diagnosis on the BOLD signal can be ambiguous. We believe that our results can be used in the future for a more correct interpretation of the data obtained with fMRI, NIRS and other similar methods for research of the brain activity.

Spatio-temporal variability of faunal and floral assemblages in Mediterranean temporary wetlands.

PubMed

Rouissi, Maya; Boix, Dani; Muller, Serge D; Gascón, Stéphanie; Ruhí, Albert; Sala, Jordi; Bouattour, Ali; Ben Haj Jilani, Imtinen; Ghrabi-Gammar, Zeineb; Ben Saad-Limam, Samia; Daoud-Bouattour, Amina

2014-12-01

Six temporary wetlands in the region of Sejenane (Mogods, NW Tunisia) were studied in order to characterize the aquatic flora and fauna and to quantify their spatio-temporal variability. Samplings of aquatic fauna, phytosociological relevés, and measurements of the physicochemical parameters of water were taken during four different field visits carried out during the four seasons of the year (November 2009-July 2010). Despite the strong anthropic pressures on them, these temporary wetlands are home to rich and diversified biodiversity, including rare and endangered species. Spatial and temporal variations affect fauna and flora differently, as temporal variability influences the fauna rather more than the plants, which are relatively more dependent on spatial factors. These results demonstrate the interest of small water bodies for maintaining biodiversity at the regional level, and thus underscore the conservation issues of Mediterranean temporary wetlands that are declining on an ongoing basis currently. Copyright © 2014 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Mapping the spatio-temporal structure of motor cortical LFP and spiking activities during reach-to-grasp movements

PubMed Central

Riehle, Alexa; Wirtssohn, Sarah; Grün, Sonja; Brochier, Thomas

2013-01-01

Grasping an object involves shaping the hand and fingers in relation to the object’s physical properties. Following object contact, it also requires a fine adjustment of grasp forces for secure manipulation. Earlier studies suggest that the control of hand shaping and grasp force involve partially segregated motor cortical networks. However, it is still unclear how information originating from these networks is processed and integrated. We addressed this issue by analyzing massively parallel signals from population measures (local field potentials, LFPs) and single neuron spiking activities recorded simultaneously during a delayed reach-to-grasp task, by using a 100-electrode array chronically implanted in monkey motor cortex. Motor cortical LFPs exhibit a large multi-component movement-related potential (MRP) around movement onset. Here, we show that the peak amplitude of each MRP component and its latency with respect to movement onset vary along the cortical surface covered by the array. Using a comparative mapping approach, we suggest that the spatio-temporal structure of the MRP reflects the complex physical properties of the reach-to-grasp movement. In addition, we explored how the spatio-temporal structure of the MRP relates to two other measures of neuronal activity: the temporal profile of single neuron spiking activity at each electrode site and the somatosensory receptive field properties of single neuron activities. We observe that the spatial representations of LFP and spiking activities overlap extensively and relate to the spatial distribution of proximal and distal representations of the upper limb. Altogether, these data show that, in motor cortex, a precise spatio-temporal pattern of activation is involved for the control of reach-to-grasp movements and provide some new insight about the functional organization of motor cortex during reaching and object manipulation. PMID:23543888

Studies on spatio-temporal filtering of GNSS-derived coordinates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruszczynski, Maciej; Bogusz, Janusz; Kłos, Anna; Figurski, Mariusz

2015-04-01

The information about lithospheric deformations may be obtained nowadays by analysis of velocity field derived from permanent GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) observations. Despite developing more and more reliable models, the permanent stations residuals must still be considered as coloured noise. Meeting the GGOS (Global Geodetic Observing System) requirements, we are obliged to investigate the correlations between residuals, which are the result of common mode error (CME). This type of error may arise from mismodelling of: satellite orbits, the Earth Orientation Parameters, satellite antenna phase centre variations or unmodelling of large scale atmospheric effects. The above described together cause correlations between stochastic parts of coordinate time series obtained at stations located of even few thousands kilometres from each other. Permanent stations that meet the aforementioned terms form the regional (EPN - EUREF Permanent Network) or local sub-networks of global (IGS - International GNSS Service) network. Other authors (Wdowinski et al., 1997; Dong et al., 2006) dealt with spatio-temporal filtering and indicated three major regional filtering approaches: the stacking, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) based on the empirical orthogonal function and the Karhunen-Loeve expansion. The need for spatio-temporal filtering is evident today, but the question whether the size of the network affects the accuracy of station's position and its velocity still remains unanswered. With the aim to determine the network's size, for which the assumption of spatial uniform distribution of CME is retained, we used stacking approach. We analyzed time series of IGS stations with daily network solutions processed by the Military University of Technology EPN Local Analysis Centre in Bernese 5.0 software and compared it with the JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) PPP (Precice Point Positioning). The method we propose is based on the division of local GNSS networks

Sparse Representation with Spatio-Temporal Online Dictionary Learning for Efficient Video Coding.

PubMed

Dai, Wenrui; Shen, Yangmei; Tang, Xin; Zou, Junni; Xiong, Hongkai; Chen, Chang Wen

2016-07-27

Classical dictionary learning methods for video coding suer from high computational complexity and interfered coding eciency by disregarding its underlying distribution. This paper proposes a spatio-temporal online dictionary learning (STOL) algorithm to speed up the convergence rate of dictionary learning with a guarantee of approximation error. The proposed algorithm incorporates stochastic gradient descents to form a dictionary of pairs of 3-D low-frequency and highfrequency spatio-temporal volumes. In each iteration of the learning process, it randomly selects one sample volume and updates the atoms of dictionary by minimizing the expected cost, rather than optimizes empirical cost over the complete training data like batch learning methods, e.g. K-SVD. Since the selected volumes are supposed to be i.i.d. samples from the underlying distribution, decomposition coecients attained from the trained dictionary are desirable for sparse representation. Theoretically, it is proved that the proposed STOL could achieve better approximation for sparse representation than K-SVD and maintain both structured sparsity and hierarchical sparsity. It is shown to outperform batch gradient descent methods (K-SVD) in the sense of convergence speed and computational complexity, and its upper bound for prediction error is asymptotically equal to the training error. With lower computational complexity, extensive experiments validate that the STOL based coding scheme achieves performance improvements than H.264/AVC or HEVC as well as existing super-resolution based methods in ratedistortion performance and visual quality.

Spatio-temporal imaging of the hemoglobin in the compressed breast with diffuse optical tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boverman, Gregory; Fang, Qianqian; Carp, Stefan A.; Miller, Eric L.; Brooks, Dana H.; Selb, Juliette; Moore, Richard H.; Kopans, Daniel B.; Boas, David A.

2007-07-01

We develop algorithms for imaging the time-varying optical absorption within the breast given diffuse optical tomographic data collected over a time span that is long compared to the dynamics of the medium. Multispectral measurements allow for the determination of the time-varying total hemoglobin concentration and of oxygen saturation. To facilitate the image reconstruction, we decompose the hemodynamics in time into a linear combination of spatio-temporal basis functions, the coefficients of which are estimated using all of the data simultaneously, making use of a Newton-based nonlinear optimization algorithm. The solution of the extremely large least-squares problem which arises in computing the Newton update is obtained iteratively using the LSQR algorithm. A Laplacian spatial regularization operator is applied, and, in addition, we make use of temporal regularization which tends to encourage similarity between the images of the spatio-temporal coefficients. Results are shown for an extensive simulation, in which we are able to image and quantify localized changes in both total hemoglobin concentration and oxygen saturation. Finally, a breast compression study has been performed for a normal breast cancer screening subject, using an instrument which allows for highly accurate co-registration of multispectral diffuse optical measurements with an x-ray tomosynthesis image of the breast. We are able to quantify the global return of blood to the breast following compression, and, in addition, localized changes are observed which correspond to the glandular region of the breast.

NeuCube: a spiking neural network architecture for mapping, learning and understanding of spatio-temporal brain data.

PubMed

Kasabov, Nikola K

2014-04-01

The brain functions as a spatio-temporal information processing machine. Spatio- and spectro-temporal brain data (STBD) are the most commonly collected data for measuring brain response to external stimuli. An enormous amount of such data has been already collected, including brain structural and functional data under different conditions, molecular and genetic data, in an attempt to make a progress in medicine, health, cognitive science, engineering, education, neuro-economics, Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCI), and games. Yet, there is no unifying computational framework to deal with all these types of data in order to better understand this data and the processes that generated it. Standard machine learning techniques only partially succeeded and they were not designed in the first instance to deal with such complex data. Therefore, there is a need for a new paradigm to deal with STBD. This paper reviews some methods of spiking neural networks (SNN) and argues that SNN are suitable for the creation of a unifying computational framework for learning and understanding of various STBD, such as EEG, fMRI, genetic, DTI, MEG, and NIRS, in their integration and interaction. One of the reasons is that SNN use the same computational principle that generates STBD, namely spiking information processing. This paper introduces a new SNN architecture, called NeuCube, for the creation of concrete models to map, learn and understand STBD. A NeuCube model is based on a 3D evolving SNN that is an approximate map of structural and functional areas of interest of the brain related to the modeling STBD. Gene information is included optionally in the form of gene regulatory networks (GRN) if this is relevant to the problem and the data. A NeuCube model learns from STBD and creates connections between clusters of neurons that manifest chains (trajectories) of neuronal activity. Once learning is applied, a NeuCube model can reproduce these trajectories, even if only part of the input

Somatic growth dynamics of West Atlantic hawksbill sea turtles: a spatio-temporal perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjorndal, Karen A.; Chaloupka, Milani; Saba, Vincent S.; Diez, Carlos E.; van Dam, Robert P.; Krueger, Barry H.; Horrocks, Julia A.; Santos, Armando J.B.; Bellini, Cláudio; Marcovaldi, Maria A.G.; Nava, Mabel; Willis, Sue; Godley, Brendan J.; Gore, Shannon; Hawkes, Lucy A.; McGowan, Andrew; Witt, Matthew J.; Stringell, Thomas B.; Sanghera, Amdeep; Richardson, Peter B.; Broderick, Annette C.; Phillips, Quinton; Calosso, Marta C.; Claydon, John A.B.; Blumenthal, Janice; Moncada, Felix; Nodarse, Gonzalo; Medina, Yosvani; Dunbar, Stephen G.; Wood, Lawrence D.; Lagueux, Cynthia J.; Campbell, Cathi L.; Meylan, Anne B.; Meylan, Peter A.; Burns Perez, Virginia R.; Coleman, Robin A.; Strindberg, Samantha; Guzmán-H, Vicente; Hart, Kristen M.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Lundgren, Ian; Boulon, Ralf H.; Connett, Stephen; Outerbridge, Mark E.; Bolten, Alan B.

2016-01-01

Somatic growth dynamics are an integrated response to environmental conditions. Hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) are long-lived, major consumers in coral reef habitats that move over broad geographic areas (hundreds to thousands of kilometers). We evaluated spatio-temporal effects on hawksbill growth dynamics over a 33-yr period and 24 study sites throughout the West Atlantic and explored relationships between growth dynamics and climate indices. We compiled the largest ever data set on somatic growth rates for hawksbills – 3541 growth increments from 1980 to 2013. Using generalized additive mixed model analyses, we evaluated 10 covariates, including spatial and temporal variation, that could affect growth rates. Growth rates throughout the region responded similarly over space and time. The lack of a spatial effect or spatio-temporal interaction and the very strong temporal effect reveal that growth rates in West Atlantic hawksbills are likely driven by region-wide forces. Between 1997 and 2013, mean growth rates declined significantly and steadily by 18%. Regional climate indices have significant relationships with annual growth rates with 0- or 1-yr lags: positive with the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (correlation = 0.99) and negative with Caribbean sea surface temperature (correlation = −0.85). Declines in growth rates between 1997 and 2013 throughout the West Atlantic most likely resulted from warming waters through indirect negative effects on foraging resources of hawksbills. These climatic influences are complex. With increasing temperatures, trajectories of decline of coral cover and availability in reef habitats of major prey species of hawksbills are not parallel. Knowledge of how choice of foraging habitats, prey selection, and prey abundance are affected by warming water temperatures is needed to understand how climate change will affect productivity of consumers that live in association with coral reefs. Main

A Bayesian spatio-temporal model for forecasting Anaplasma species seroprevalence in domestic dogs within the contiguous United States.

PubMed

Liu, Yan; Watson, Stella C; Gettings, Jenna R; Lund, Robert B; Nordone, Shila K; Yabsley, Michael J; McMahan, Christopher S

2017-01-01

This paper forecasts the 2016 canine Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence in the United States from eight climate, geographic and societal factors. The forecast's construction and an assessment of its performance are described. The forecast is based on a spatial-temporal conditional autoregressive model fitted to over 11 million Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence test results for dogs conducted in the 48 contiguous United States during 2011-2015. The forecast uses county-level data on eight predictive factors, including annual temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, county elevation, forestation coverage, surface water coverage, population density and median household income. Non-static factors are extrapolated into the forthcoming year with various statistical methods. The fitted model and factor extrapolations are used to estimate next year's regional prevalence. The correlation between the observed and model-estimated county-by-county Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence for the five-year period 2011-2015 is 0.902, demonstrating reasonable model accuracy. The weighted correlation (accounting for different sample sizes) between 2015 observed and forecasted county-by-county Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence is 0.987, exhibiting that the proposed approach can be used to accurately forecast Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence. The forecast presented herein can a priori alert veterinarians to areas expected to see Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence beyond the accepted endemic range. The proposed methods may prove useful for forecasting other diseases.

A Bayesian spatio-temporal model for forecasting Anaplasma species seroprevalence in domestic dogs within the contiguous United States

PubMed Central

Liu, Yan; Watson, Stella C.; Gettings, Jenna R.; Lund, Robert B.; Nordone, Shila K.; McMahan, Christopher S.

2017-01-01

This paper forecasts the 2016 canine Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence in the United States from eight climate, geographic and societal factors. The forecast’s construction and an assessment of its performance are described. The forecast is based on a spatial-temporal conditional autoregressive model fitted to over 11 million Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence test results for dogs conducted in the 48 contiguous United States during 2011–2015. The forecast uses county-level data on eight predictive factors, including annual temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, county elevation, forestation coverage, surface water coverage, population density and median household income. Non-static factors are extrapolated into the forthcoming year with various statistical methods. The fitted model and factor extrapolations are used to estimate next year’s regional prevalence. The correlation between the observed and model-estimated county-by-county Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence for the five-year period 2011–2015 is 0.902, demonstrating reasonable model accuracy. The weighted correlation (accounting for different sample sizes) between 2015 observed and forecasted county-by-county Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence is 0.987, exhibiting that the proposed approach can be used to accurately forecast Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence. The forecast presented herein can a priori alert veterinarians to areas expected to see Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence beyond the accepted endemic range. The proposed methods may prove useful for forecasting other diseases. PMID:28738085

Sickle cell disease diagnosis based on spatio-temporal cell dynamics analysis using 3D printed shearing digital holographic microscopy.

PubMed

Javidi, Bahram; Markman, Adam; Rawat, Siddharth; O'Connor, Timothy; Anand, Arun; Andemariam, Biree

2018-05-14

We present a spatio-temporal analysis of cell membrane fluctuations to distinguish healthy patients from patients with sickle cell disease. A video hologram containing either healthy red blood cells (h-RBCs) or sickle cell disease red blood cells (SCD-RBCs) was recorded using a low-cost, compact, 3D printed shearing interferometer. Reconstructions were created for each hologram frame (time steps), forming a spatio-temporal data cube. Features were extracted by computing the standard deviations and the mean of the height fluctuations over time and for every location on the cell membrane, resulting in two-dimensional standard deviation and mean maps, followed by taking the standard deviations of these maps. The optical flow algorithm was used to estimate the apparent motion fields between subsequent frames (reconstructions). The standard deviation of the magnitude of the optical flow vectors across all frames was then computed. In addition, seven morphological cell (spatial) features based on optical path length were extracted from the cells to further improve the classification accuracy. A random forest classifier was trained to perform cell identification to distinguish between SCD-RBCs and h-RBCs. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of machine learning assisted cell identification and diagnosis of sickle cell disease based on cell membrane fluctuations and morphology using both spatio-temporal and spatial analysis.

Spatio-Temporal Brain Mapping of Motion-Onset VEPs Combined with fMRI and Retinotopic Maps

PubMed Central

Pitzalis, Sabrina; Strappini, Francesca; De Gasperis, Marco; Bultrini, Alessandro; Di Russo, Francesco

2012-01-01

Neuroimaging studies have identified several motion-sensitive visual areas in the human brain, but the time course of their activation cannot be measured with these techniques. In the present study, we combined electrophysiological and neuroimaging methods (including retinotopic brain mapping) to determine the spatio-temporal profile of motion-onset visual evoked potentials for slow and fast motion stimuli and to localize its neural generators. We found that cortical activity initiates in the primary visual area (V1) for slow stimuli, peaking 100 ms after the onset of motion. Subsequently, activity in the mid-temporal motion-sensitive areas, MT+, peaked at 120 ms, followed by peaks in activity in the more dorsal area, V3A, at 160 ms and the lateral occipital complex at 180 ms. Approximately 250 ms after stimulus onset, activity fast motion stimuli was predominant in area V6 along the parieto-occipital sulcus. Finally, at 350 ms (100 ms after the motion offset) brain activity was visible again in area V1. For fast motion stimuli, the spatio-temporal brain pattern was similar, except that the first activity was detected at 70 ms in area MT+. Comparing functional magnetic resonance data for slow vs. fast motion, we found signs of slow-fast motion stimulus topography along the posterior brain in at least three cortical regions (MT+, V3A and LOR). PMID:22558222

Model Diagnostics for Bayesian Networks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sinharay, Sandip

2006-01-01

Bayesian networks are frequently used in educational assessments primarily for learning about students' knowledge and skills. There is a lack of works on assessing fit of Bayesian networks. This article employs the posterior predictive model checking method, a popular Bayesian model checking tool, to assess fit of simple Bayesian networks. A…

Spatio-temporal epidemiology of the cholera outbreak in Papua New Guinea, 2009-2011.

PubMed

Horwood, Paul F; Karl, Stephan; Mueller, Ivo; Jonduo, Marinjho H; Pavlin, Boris I; Dagina, Rosheila; Ropa, Berry; Bieb, Sibauk; Rosewell, Alexander; Umezaki, Masahiro; Siba, Peter M; Greenhill, Andrew R

2014-08-20

Cholera continues to be a devastating disease in many developing countries where inadequate safe water supply and poor sanitation facilitate spread. From July 2009 until late 2011 Papua New Guinea experienced the first outbreak of cholera recorded in the country, resulting in >15,500 cases and >500 deaths. Using the national cholera database, we analysed the spatio-temporal distribution and clustering of the Papua New Guinea cholera outbreak. The Kulldorff space-time permutation scan statistic, contained in the software package SatScan v9.2 was used to describe the first 8 weeks of the outbreak in Morobe Province before cholera cases spread throughout other regions of the country. Data were aggregated at the provincial level to describe the spread of the disease to other affected provinces. Spatio-temporal and cluster analyses revealed that the outbreak was characterized by three distinct phases punctuated by explosive propagation of cases when the outbreak spread to a new region. The lack of road networks across most of Papua New Guinea is likely to have had a major influence on the slow spread of the disease during this outbreak. Identification of high risk areas and the likely mode of spread can guide government health authorities to formulate public health strategies to mitigate the spread of the disease through education campaigns, vaccination, increased surveillance in targeted areas and interventions to improve water, sanitation and hygiene.

Application of Geostatistical Methods and Machine Learning for spatio-temporal Earthquake Cluster Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaefer, A. M.; Daniell, J. E.; Wenzel, F.

2014-12-01

Earthquake clustering tends to be an increasingly important part of general earthquake research especially in terms of seismic hazard assessment and earthquake forecasting and prediction approaches. The distinct identification and definition of foreshocks, aftershocks, mainshocks and secondary mainshocks is taken into account using a point based spatio-temporal clustering algorithm originating from the field of classic machine learning. This can be further applied for declustering purposes to separate background seismicity from triggered seismicity. The results are interpreted and processed to assemble 3D-(x,y,t) earthquake clustering maps which are based on smoothed seismicity records in space and time. In addition, multi-dimensional Gaussian functions are used to capture clustering parameters for spatial distribution and dominant orientations. Clusters are further processed using methodologies originating from geostatistics, which have been mostly applied and developed in mining projects during the last decades. A 2.5D variogram analysis is applied to identify spatio-temporal homogeneity in terms of earthquake density and energy output. The results are mitigated using Kriging to provide an accurate mapping solution for clustering features. As a case study, seismic data of New Zealand and the United States is used, covering events since the 1950s, from which an earthquake cluster catalogue is assembled for most of the major events, including a detailed analysis of the Landers and Christchurch sequences.

Identifying spatio-temporal dynamics of Ebola in Sierra Leone using virus genomes

PubMed Central

Proctor, Joshua L.

2017-01-01

Containing the recent West African outbreak of Ebola virus (EBOV) required the deployment of substantial global resources. Despite recent progress in analysing and modelling EBOV epidemiological data, a complete characterization of the spatio-temporal spread of Ebola cases remains a challenge. In this work, we offer a novel perspective on the EBOV epidemic in Sierra Leone that uses individual virus genome sequences to inform population-level, spatial models. Calibrated to phylogenetic linkages of virus genomes, these spatial models provide unique insight into the disease mobility of EBOV in Sierra Leone without the need for human mobility data. Consistent with other investigations, our results show that the spread of EBOV during the beginning and middle portions of the epidemic strongly depended on the size of and distance between populations. Our phylodynamic analysis also revealed a change in model preference towards a spatial model with power-law characteristics in the latter portion of the epidemic, correlated with the timing of major intervention campaigns. More generally, we believe this framework, pairing molecular diagnostics with a dynamic model selection procedure, has the potential to be a powerful forecasting tool along with offering operationally relevant guidance for surveillance and sampling strategies during an epidemic. PMID:29187639

Adaptive OFDM Waveform Design for Spatio-Temporal-Sparsity Exploited STAP Radar

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sen, Satyabrata

In this chapter, we describe a sparsity-based space-time adaptive processing (STAP) algorithm to detect a slowly moving target using an orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) radar. The motivation of employing an OFDM signal is that it improves the target-detectability from the interfering signals by increasing the frequency diversity of the system. However, due to the addition of one extra dimension in terms of frequency, the adaptive degrees-of-freedom in an OFDM-STAP also increases. Therefore, to avoid the construction a fully adaptive OFDM-STAP, we develop a sparsity-based STAP algorithm. We observe that the interference spectrum is inherently sparse in the spatio-temporal domain,more » as the clutter responses occupy only a diagonal ridge on the spatio-temporal plane and the jammer signals interfere only from a few spatial directions. Hence, we exploit that sparsity to develop an efficient STAP technique that utilizes considerably lesser number of secondary data compared to the other existing STAP techniques, and produces nearly optimum STAP performance. In addition to designing the STAP filter, we optimally design the transmit OFDM signals by maximizing the output signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio (SINR) in order to improve the STAP performance. The computation of output SINR depends on the estimated value of the interference covariance matrix, which we obtain by applying the sparse recovery algorithm. Therefore, we analytically assess the effects of the synthesized OFDM coefficients on the sparse recovery of the interference covariance matrix by computing the coherence measure of the sparse measurement matrix. Our numerical examples demonstrate the achieved STAP-performance due to sparsity-based technique and adaptive waveform design.« less

Spatio-temporal distribution of perchlorate and its toxicity in Hydrilla verticillata.

PubMed

Vijaya Nadaraja, Anupama; Pushpangadhan Saraswathy, Divya; Cheruvathery Ravindran, Sayana; Mariya, Anie; Godwin Russel, Jasmin; Selvanesan, Pradeep; Pereira, Benno; Bhaskaran, Krishnakumar

2017-10-01

The spatio-temporal distribution of perchlorate in water sources around an ammonium perchlorate production unit and its toxicity response on a dominant aquatic plant, Hydrilla verticillata are reported in this study. Samples (n=453) from ground water (open well) and surface water sources within 5km from the production unit over a period of 12 months (2014, June - 2015, May) were screened for ClO 4 - . During the period, ClO 4 - concentration in ground water samples close to the production unit increased to >40,000μg/L, and ClO 4 - was detected at 1740μg/L in well water 1.6km away from the production unit. A community pond in the area also showed an increase in ClO 4 - level up to 29,000μg/L. In all water sources, ClO 4 - level was maximum during the rainy season (July, monsoon). A natural degradation of ClO 4 - was not observed in the area as evident from its persistent level and spreading to more areas. H. verticillata, the dominant vegetation in the pond exhibited severe toxic response like massive decay and loss of photosynthetic pigments such as chlorophyll and carotene due to ClO 4 - exposure. The plant accumulated ClO 4 - up to 60 ± 0.8mg/kg wet weight with a Bio-Concentration Factor 2.06±0.005. This is the first report on spatio-temporal distribution of ClO 4 - at higher levels in a natural environment and its toxicity response to plants under natural condition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dying like rabbits: general determinants of spatio-temporal variability in survival.

PubMed

Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy; Palomares, Francisco

2012-01-01

1. Identifying general patterns of how and why survival rates vary across space and time is necessary to truly understand population dynamics of a species. However, this is not an easy task given the complexity and interactions of processes involved, and the interpopulation differences in main survival determinants. 2. Here, using European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) as a model and information from local studies, we investigated whether we could make inferences about trends and drivers of survival of a species that are generalizable to large spatio-temporal scales. To do this, we first focused on overall survival and then examined cause-specific mortalities, mainly predation and diseases, which may lead to those patterns. 3. Our results show that within the large-scale variability in rabbit survival, there exist general patterns that are explained by the integration of factors previously known to be important at the local level (i.e. age, climate, diseases, predation or density dependence). We found that both inter- and intrastudy survival rates increased in magnitude and decreased in variability as rabbits grow old, although this tendency was less pronounced in populations with epidemic diseases. Some causes leading to these higher mortalities in young rabbits could be the stronger effect of rainfall at those ages, as well as, other death sources like malnutrition or infanticide. 4. Predation is also greater for newborns and juveniles, especially in population without diseases. Apart from the effect of diseases, predation patterns also depended on factors, such as, density, season, and type and density of predators. Finally, we observed that infectious diseases also showed general relationships with climate, breeding (i.e. new susceptible rabbits) and age, although the association type varied between myxomatosis and rabbit haemorrhagic disease. 5. In conclusion, large-scale patterns of spatio-temporal variability in rabbit survival emerge from the combination

Bayesian Spatiotemporal Pattern and Eco-climatological Drivers of Striped Skunk Rabies in the North Central Plains

PubMed Central

Raghavan, Ram K.; Hanlon, Cathleen A.; Goodin, Douglas G.; Anderson, Gary A.

2016-01-01

Striped skunks are one of the most important terrestrial reservoirs of rabies virus in North America, and yet the prevalence of rabies among this host is only passively monitored and the disease among this host remains largely unmanaged. Oral vaccination campaigns have not efficiently targeted striped skunks, while periodic spillovers of striped skunk variant viruses to other animals, including some domestic animals, are routinely recorded. In this study we evaluated the spatial and spatio-temporal patterns of infection status among striped skunk cases submitted for rabies testing in the North Central Plains of US in a Bayesian hierarchical framework, and also evaluated potential eco-climatological drivers of such patterns. Two Bayesian hierarchical models were fitted to point-referenced striped skunk rabies cases [n = 656 (negative), and n = 310 (positive)] received at a leading rabies diagnostic facility between the years 2007–2013. The first model included only spatial and temporal terms and a second covariate model included additional covariates representing eco-climatic conditions within a 4km2 home-range area for striped skunks. The better performing covariate model indicated the presence of significant spatial and temporal trends in the dataset and identified higher amounts of land covered by low-intensity developed areas [Odds ratio (OR) = 3.41; 95% Bayesian Credible Intervals (CrI) = 2.08, 3.85], higher level of patch fragmentation (OR = 1.70; 95% CrI = 1.25, 2.89), and diurnal temperature range (OR = 0.54; 95% CrI = 0.27, 0.91) to be important drivers of striped skunk rabies incidence in the study area. Model validation statistics indicated satisfactory performance for both models; however, the covariate model fared better. The findings of this study are important in the context of rabies management among striped skunks in North America, and the relevance of physical and climatological factors as risk factors for skunk to human rabies transmission and

Spatio-temporal dynamics of turbulence trapped in geodesic acoustic modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasaki, M.; Kobayashi, T.; Itoh, K.; Kasuya, N.; Kosuga, Y.; Fujisawa, A.; Itoh, S.-I.

2018-01-01

The spatio-temporal dynamics of turbulence with the interaction of geodesic acoustic modes (GAMs) are investigated, focusing on the phase-space structure of turbulence, where the phase-space consists of real-space and wavenumber-space. Based on the wave-kinetic framework, the coupling equation between the GAM and the turbulence is numerically solved. The turbulence trapped by the GAM velocity field is obtained. Due to the trapping effect, the turbulence intensity increases where the second derivative of the GAM velocity (curvature of the GAM) is negative. While, in the positive-curvature region, the turbulence is suppressed. Since the trapped turbulence propagates with the GAMs, this relationship is sustained spatially and temporally. The dynamics of the turbulence in the wavenumber spectrum are converted in the evolution of the frequency spectrum, and the simulation result is compared with the experimental observation in JFT-2M tokamak, where the similar patterns are obtained. The turbulence trapping effect is a key to understand the spatial structure of the turbulence in the presence of sheared flows.

Spatio-temporal changes in precipitation over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Na; Yue, Tianxiang; Li, Han; Zhang, Lili; Yin, Xiaozhe; Liu, Yi

2018-04-01

Changes in precipitation have a large effect on human society and are of primary importance for many scientific fields such as hydrology, agriculture and eco-environmental sciences. The present study intended to investigate the spatio-temporal characteristics of precipitation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region by using 316 meteorological stations during the period 1965-2014. Geographical Weighted Regression (GWR) method and High Accuracy Surface Modeling (HASM) method were applied to produce the precipitation patterns at different time scales. Mann-Kendall (MK) statistical test was applied to analyze the precipitation temporal variations. Results indicated that annual precipitation over the past 50 years appeared to be a non-periodic oscillation phenomenon; the number of wet years was approximately the same as that of dry years; significant positive trends were observed in spring during 1978-2014 and summer during 1996-2014; on the whole, precipitation in May, June, September, and December showed increasing trends at the 95% confidence level; and significant positive trends were also identified in July during 2000-2013 and August during 1997-2010, while slight decreasing trends were observed in February and November. Summer (June, July, and August) was the wettest season, accounting for 68.73% of annual totals in BTH. In general, northeastern BTH received the highest range of precipitation while northwestern area had the lowest. It was found that precipitation variation in this region had been closely linked to latitude, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), distance to the sea, and urbanization rate. In addition, land use played an important role in the decadal precipitation changes in BTH.

Spatio-temporal Change Patterns of Tropical Forests from 2000 to 2014 Using MOD09A1 Dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Y.; Xiao, X.; Dong, J.

2016-12-01

Large-scale deforestation and forest degradation in the tropical region have resulted in extensive carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. However, restricted by the availability of good-quality observations, large uncertainty exists in mapping the spatial distribution of forests and their spatio-temporal changes. In this study, we proposed a pixel- and phenology-based algorithm to identify and map annual tropical forests from 2000 to 2014, using the 8-day, 500-m MOD09A1 (v005) product, under the support of Google cloud computing (Google Earth Engine). A temporal filter was applied to reduce the random noises and to identify the spatio-temporal changes of forests. We then built up a confusion matrix and assessed the accuracy of the annual forest maps based on the ground reference interpreted from high spatial resolution images in Google Earth. The resultant forest maps showed the consistent forest/non-forest, forest loss, and forest gain in the pan-tropical zone during 2000 - 2014. The proposed algorithm showed the potential for tropical forest mapping and the resultant forest maps are important for the estimation of carbon emission and biodiversity loss.

Air pollution exposure and adverse pregnancy outcomes in a large UK birth cohort: use of a novel spatio-temporal modelling technique.

PubMed

Hannam, Kimberly; McNamee, Roseanne; Baker, Philip; Sibley, Colin; Agius, Raymond

2014-09-01

Previous work suggests an association between air pollution exposure and adverse pregnancy outcomes, even at relatively low concentrations. Our aim was to quantify the effect of air pollution having an adverse effect on preterm birth (PTB) and fetal growth in a large UK cohort using a novel exposure estimation technique [spatio-temporal (S-T) model] alongside a traditional nearest stationary monitor technique (NSTAT). All available postcodes from a Northwest England birth outcome dataset during 2004-2008 were geocoded (N=203 562 deliveries). Pollution estimates were linked to corresponding pregnancy periods using temporally adjusted background modelled concentrations as well as NSTAT. Associations with PTB, small for gestational age (SGA), and birth weight were investigated using regression models adjusting for maternal age, ethnicity, parity, birth season, socioeconomic status (SES), body mass index (BMI), and smoking. Based on the novel S-T model, a small statistically significant association was observed for particulate matter (PM10) and SGA, particularly with exposure in the first and third trimesters. Similar effects on SGA were also found for nitrogen dioxide (NO 2), particulate matter (PM 2,5), and carbon monoxide (CO) in later pregnancy, but no overall increased risk was observed. No associations were found with NO xor the outcomes PTB and reduction in birth weight. Our findings suggest an association between air pollution exposure and birth of a SGA infant, particularly in the later stages of pregnancy but not with PTB or mean birth weight change.

Health impact assessment of industrial development projects: a spatio-temporal visualization.

PubMed

Winkler, Mirko S; Krieger, Gary R; Divall, Mark J; Singer, Burton H; Utzinger, Jürg

2012-05-01

Development and implementation of large-scale industrial projects in complex eco-epidemiological settings typically require combined environmental, social and health impact assessments. We present a generic, spatio-temporal health impact assessment (HIA) visualization, which can be readily adapted to specific projects and key stakeholders, including poorly literate communities that might be affected by consequences of a project. We illustrate how the occurrence of a variety of complex events can be utilized for stakeholder communication, awareness creation, interactive learning as well as formulating HIA research and implementation questions. Methodological features are highlighted in the context of an iron ore development in a rural part of Africa.

Water Quality Sensing and Spatio-Temporal Monitoring Structure with Autocorrelation Kernel Methods.

PubMed

Vizcaíno, Iván P; Carrera, Enrique V; Muñoz-Romero, Sergio; Cumbal, Luis H; Rojo-Álvarez, José Luis

2017-10-16

Pollution on water resources is usually analyzed with monitoring campaigns, which consist of programmed sampling, measurement, and recording of the most representative water quality parameters. These campaign measurements yields a non-uniform spatio-temporal sampled data structure to characterize complex dynamics phenomena. In this work, we propose an enhanced statistical interpolation method to provide water quality managers with statistically interpolated representations of spatial-temporal dynamics. Specifically, our proposal makes efficient use of the a priori available information of the quality parameter measurements through Support Vector Regression (SVR) based on Mercer's kernels. The methods are benchmarked against previously proposed methods in three segments of the Machángara River and one segment of the San Pedro River in Ecuador, and their different dynamics are shown by statistically interpolated spatial-temporal maps. The best interpolation performance in terms of mean absolute error was the SVR with Mercer's kernel given by either the Mahalanobis spatial-temporal covariance matrix or by the bivariate estimated autocorrelation function. In particular, the autocorrelation kernel provides with significant improvement of the estimation quality, consistently for all the six water quality variables, which points out the relevance of including a priori knowledge of the problem.

Shot boundary detection and label propagation for spatio-temporal video segmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piramanayagam, Sankaranaryanan; Saber, Eli; Cahill, Nathan D.; Messinger, David

2015-02-01

This paper proposes a two stage algorithm for streaming video segmentation. In the first stage, shot boundaries are detected within a window of frames by comparing dissimilarity between 2-D segmentations of each frame. In the second stage, the 2-D segments are propagated across the window of frames in both spatial and temporal direction. The window is moved across the video to find all shot transitions and obtain spatio-temporal segments simultaneously. As opposed to techniques that operate on entire video, the proposed approach consumes significantly less memory and enables segmentation of lengthy videos. We tested our segmentation based shot detection method on the TRECVID 2007 video dataset and compared it with block-based technique. Cut detection results on the TRECVID 2007 dataset indicate that our algorithm has comparable results to the best of the block-based methods. The streaming video segmentation routine also achieves promising results on a challenging video segmentation benchmark database.

A Statistical Physics Characterization of the Complex Systems Dynamics: Quantifying Complexity from Spatio-Temporal Interactions

PubMed Central

Koorehdavoudi, Hana; Bogdan, Paul

2016-01-01

Biological systems are frequently categorized as complex systems due to their capabilities of generating spatio-temporal structures from apparent random decisions. In spite of research on analyzing biological systems, we lack a quantifiable framework for measuring their complexity. To fill this gap, in this paper, we develop a new paradigm to study a collective group of N agents moving and interacting in a three-dimensional space. Our paradigm helps to identify the spatio-temporal states of the motion of the group and their associated transition probabilities. This framework enables the estimation of the free energy landscape corresponding to the identified states. Based on the energy landscape, we quantify missing information, emergence, self-organization and complexity for a collective motion. We show that the collective motion of the group of agents evolves to reach the most probable state with relatively lowest energy level and lowest missing information compared to other possible states. Our analysis demonstrates that the natural group of animals exhibit a higher degree of emergence, self-organization and complexity over time. Consequently, this algorithm can be integrated into new frameworks to engineer collective motions to achieve certain degrees of emergence, self-organization and complexity. PMID:27297496

A Statistical Physics Characterization of the Complex Systems Dynamics: Quantifying Complexity from Spatio-Temporal Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koorehdavoudi, Hana; Bogdan, Paul

2016-06-01

Biological systems are frequently categorized as complex systems due to their capabilities of generating spatio-temporal structures from apparent random decisions. In spite of research on analyzing biological systems, we lack a quantifiable framework for measuring their complexity. To fill this gap, in this paper, we develop a new paradigm to study a collective group of N agents moving and interacting in a three-dimensional space. Our paradigm helps to identify the spatio-temporal states of the motion of the group and their associated transition probabilities. This framework enables the estimation of the free energy landscape corresponding to the identified states. Based on the energy landscape, we quantify missing information, emergence, self-organization and complexity for a collective motion. We show that the collective motion of the group of agents evolves to reach the most probable state with relatively lowest energy level and lowest missing information compared to other possible states. Our analysis demonstrates that the natural group of animals exhibit a higher degree of emergence, self-organization and complexity over time. Consequently, this algorithm can be integrated into new frameworks to engineer collective motions to achieve certain degrees of emergence, self-organization and complexity.

Spatio-temporal Event Classification using Time-series Kernel based Structured Sparsity

PubMed Central

Jeni, László A.; Lőrincz, András; Szabó, Zoltán; Cohn, Jeffrey F.; Kanade, Takeo

2016-01-01

In many behavioral domains, such as facial expression and gesture, sparse structure is prevalent. This sparsity would be well suited for event detection but for one problem. Features typically are confounded by alignment error in space and time. As a consequence, high-dimensional representations such as SIFT and Gabor features have been favored despite their much greater computational cost and potential loss of information. We propose a Kernel Structured Sparsity (KSS) method that can handle both the temporal alignment problem and the structured sparse reconstruction within a common framework, and it can rely on simple features. We characterize spatio-temporal events as time-series of motion patterns and by utilizing time-series kernels we apply standard structured-sparse coding techniques to tackle this important problem. We evaluated the KSS method using both gesture and facial expression datasets that include spontaneous behavior and differ in degree of difficulty and type of ground truth coding. KSS outperformed both sparse and non-sparse methods that utilize complex image features and their temporal extensions. In the case of early facial event classification KSS had 10% higher accuracy as measured by F1 score over kernel SVM methods1. PMID:27830214

Spatio-Temporal EEG Models for Brain Interfaces

PubMed Central

Gonzalez-Navarro, P.; Moghadamfalahi, M.; Akcakaya, M.; Erdogmus, D.

2016-01-01

Multichannel electroencephalography (EEG) is widely used in non-invasive brain computer interfaces (BCIs) for user intent inference. EEG can be assumed to be a Gaussian process with unknown mean and autocovariance, and the estimation of parameters is required for BCI inference. However, the relatively high dimensionality of the EEG feature vectors with respect to the number of labeled observations lead to rank deficient covariance matrix estimates. In this manuscript, to overcome ill-conditioned covariance estimation, we propose a structure for the covariance matrices of the multichannel EEG signals. Specifically, we assume that these covariances can be modeled as a Kronecker product of temporal and spatial covariances. Our results over the experimental data collected from the users of a letter-by-letter typing BCI show that with less number of parameter estimations, the system can achieve higher classification accuracies compared to a method that uses full unstructured covariance estimation. Moreover, in order to illustrate that the proposed Kronecker product structure could enable shortening the BCI calibration data collection sessions, using Cramer-Rao bound analysis on simulated data, we demonstrate that a model with structured covariance matrices will achieve the same estimation error as a model with no covariance structure using fewer labeled EEG observations. PMID:27713590

Different horse's paces during hippotherapy on spatio-temporal parameters of gait in children with bilateral spastic cerebral palsy: A feasibility study.

PubMed

Antunes, Fabiane Nunes; Pinho, Alexandre Severo do; Kleiner, Ana Francisca Rozin; Salazar, Ana Paula; Eltz, Giovana Duarte; de Oliveira Junior, Alcyr Alves; Cechetti, Fernanda; Galli, Manuela; Pagnussat, Aline Souza

2016-12-01

Hippotherapy is often carried out for the rehabilitation of children with Cerebral Palsy (CP), with the horse riding at a walking pace. This study aimed to explore the immediate effects of a hippotherapy protocol using a walk-trot pace on spatio-temporal gait parameters and muscle tone in children with Bilateral Spastic CP (BS-CP). Ten children diagnosed with BS-CP and 10 healthy aged-matched children (reference group) took part in this study. The children with BS-CP underwent two sessions of hippotherapy for one week of washout between them. Two protocols (lasting 30min) were applied on separate days: Protocol 1: the horse's pace was a walking pace; and Protocol 2: the horse's pace was a walk-trot pace. Children from the reference group were not subjected to treatment. A wireless inertial measurement unit measured gait spatio-temporal parameters before and after each session. The Modified Ashworth Scale was applied for muscle tone measurement of hip adductors. The participants underwent the gait assessment on a path with surface irregularities (ecological context). The comparisons between BS-CP and the reference group found differences in all spatio-temporal parameters, except for gait velocity. Within-group analysis of children with BS-CP showed that the swing phase did not change after the walk pace and after the walk-trot pace. The percentage of rolling phase and double support improved after the walk-trot. The spasticity of the hip adductors was significantly reduced as an immediate result of both protocols, but this decrease was more evident after the walk-trot. The walk-trot protocol is feasible and is able to induce an immediate effect that improves the gait spatio-temporal parameters and the hip adductors spasticity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Dust Transport over Surface Mining Areas and Neighbouring Residential Zones.

PubMed

Matejicek, Lubos; Janour, Zbynek; Benes, Ludek; Bodnar, Tomas; Gulikova, Eva

2008-06-06

Projects focusing on spatio-temporal modelling of the living environment need to manage a wide range of terrain measurements, existing spatial data, time series, results of spatial analysis and inputs/outputs from numerical simulations. Thus, GISs are often used to manage data from remote sensors, to provide advanced spatial analysis and to integrate numerical models. In order to demonstrate the integration of spatial data, time series and methods in the framework of the GIS, we present a case study focused on the modelling of dust transport over a surface coal mining area, exploring spatial data from 3D laser scanners, GPS measurements, aerial images, time series of meteorological observations, inputs/outputs form numerical models and existing geographic resources. To achieve this, digital terrain models, layers including GPS thematic mapping, and scenes with simulation of wind flows are created to visualize and interpret coal dust transport over the mine area and a neighbouring residential zone. A temporary coal storage and sorting site, located near the residential zone, is one of the dominant sources of emissions. Using numerical simulations, the possible effects of wind flows are observed over the surface, modified by natural objects and man-made obstacles. The coal dust drifts with the wind in the direction of the residential zone and is partially deposited in this area. The simultaneous display of the digital map layers together with the location of the dominant emission source, wind flows and protected areas enables a risk assessment of the dust deposition in the area of interest to be performed. In order to obtain a more accurate simulation of wind flows over the temporary storage and sorting site, 3D laser scanning and GPS thematic mapping are used to create a more detailed digital terrain model. Thus, visualization of wind flows over the area of interest combined with 3D map layers enables the exploration of the processes of coal dust deposition at a

Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Dust Transport over Surface Mining Areas and Neighbouring Residential Zones

PubMed Central

Matejicek, Lubos; Janour, Zbynek; Benes, Ludek; Bodnar, Tomas; Gulikova, Eva

2008-01-01

Projects focusing on spatio-temporal modelling of the living environment need to manage a wide range of terrain measurements, existing spatial data, time series, results of spatial analysis and inputs/outputs from numerical simulations. Thus, GISs are often used to manage data from remote sensors, to provide advanced spatial analysis and to integrate numerical models. In order to demonstrate the integration of spatial data, time series and methods in the framework of the GIS, we present a case study focused on the modelling of dust transport over a surface coal mining area, exploring spatial data from 3D laser scanners, GPS measurements, aerial images, time series of meteorological observations, inputs/outputs form numerical models and existing geographic resources. To achieve this, digital terrain models, layers including GPS thematic mapping, and scenes with simulation of wind flows are created to visualize and interpret coal dust transport over the mine area and a neighbouring residential zone. A temporary coal storage and sorting site, located near the residential zone, is one of the dominant sources of emissions. Using numerical simulations, the possible effects of wind flows are observed over the surface, modified by natural objects and man-made obstacles. The coal dust drifts with the wind in the direction of the residential zone and is partially deposited in this area. The simultaneous display of the digital map layers together with the location of the dominant emission source, wind flows and protected areas enables a risk assessment of the dust deposition in the area of interest to be performed. In order to obtain a more accurate simulation of wind flows over the temporary storage and sorting site, 3D laser scanning and GPS thematic mapping are used to create a more detailed digital terrain model. Thus, visualization of wind flows over the area of interest combined with 3D map layers enables the exploration of the processes of coal dust deposition at a

Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Traffic Patterns Based on Pedestrian Trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busch, S.; Schindler, T.; Klinger, T.; Brenner, C.

2016-06-01

For driver assistance and autonomous driving systems, it is essential to predict the behaviour of other traffic participants. Usually, standard filter approaches are used to this end, however, in many cases, these are not sufficient. For example, pedestrians are able to change their speed or direction instantly. Also, there may be not enough observation data to determine the state of an object reliably, e.g. in case of occlusions. In those cases, it is very useful if a prior model exists, which suggests certain outcomes. For example, it is useful to know that pedestrians are usually crossing the road at a certain location and at certain times. This information can then be stored in a map which then can be used as a prior in scene analysis, or in practical terms to reduce the speed of a vehicle in advance in order to minimize critical situations. In this paper, we present an approach to derive such a spatio-temporal map automatically from the observed behaviour of traffic participants in everyday traffic situations. In our experiments, we use one stationary camera to observe a complex junction, where cars, public transportation and pedestrians interact. We concentrate on the pedestrians trajectories to map traffic patterns. In the first step, we extract trajectory segments from the video data. These segments are then clustered in order to derive a spatial model of the scene, in terms of a spatially embedded graph. In the second step, we analyse the temporal patterns of pedestrian movement on this graph. We are able to derive traffic light sequences as well as the timetables of nearby public transportation. To evaluate our approach, we used a 4 hour video sequence. We show that we are able to derive traffic light sequences as well as time tables of nearby public transportation.

Multivariate space-time modelling of multiple air pollutants and their health effects accounting for exposure uncertainty.

PubMed

Huang, Guowen; Lee, Duncan; Scott, E Marian

2018-03-30

The long-term health effects of air pollution are often estimated using a spatio-temporal ecological areal unit study, but this design leads to the following statistical challenges: (1) how to estimate spatially representative pollution concentrations for each areal unit; (2) how to allow for the uncertainty in these estimated concentrations when estimating their health effects; and (3) how to simultaneously estimate the joint effects of multiple correlated pollutants. This article proposes a novel 2-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for addressing these 3 challenges, with inference based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The first stage is a multivariate spatio-temporal fusion model for predicting areal level average concentrations of multiple pollutants from both monitored and modelled pollution data. The second stage is a spatio-temporal model for estimating the health impact of multiple correlated pollutants simultaneously, which accounts for the uncertainty in the estimated pollution concentrations. The novel methodology is motivated by a new study of the impact of both particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide concentrations on respiratory hospital admissions in Scotland between 2007 and 2011, and the results suggest that both pollutants exhibit substantial and independent health effects. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using climate information to understand the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of a chikungunya outbreak in the presence of widespread asymptomatic infection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dommar, C. J.; Lowe, R.; Robinson, M.; Rodó, X.

2013-12-01

The emergence and persistence of human pathogens in the environment represents a constant threat to society, with global implications for human health, economies and ecosystems. Of particular concern are vector-borne diseases, such as dengue, malaria and chikungunya, which are increasing across their traditional ranges and continuing to infiltrate new regions. This unprecedented situation has been partly attributed to the increase in global temperatures in recent decades which has allowed non-native mosquito species to invade and successfully colonise previously inhospitable environments The spatio-temporal evolution of these diseases is determined by the interaction of the host and vector, which is strongly dependent on social structures and mobility patterns. In turn, vector populations are thought to be driven by external environmental variables, such as precipitation and temperature. Furthermore, the ability of asymptomatic individuals to successfully transmit the infection and evade control measures can undermine public health interventions. We employed a stochastic model, which explicitly included asymptomatic and undocumented laboratory confirmed cases, and applied it to a documented outbreak in Cambodia in 2012 (Trapeang Roka village, Kampong Speu Province). The resulting estimate of the reproduction number was considerably higher than values obtained for previous outbreaks and highlights the importance of asymptomatic transmission. Subsequently, we develop an agent-based model (ABM), in which each individual is explicitly represented and vector populations are linked to precipitation estimates in a tropical setting. The model is implemented on both scale-free and regular networks. The spatio-temporal transmission of chikungunya is analysed and the presence of asymptomatic silent spreaders within the population is investigated in the context of implementing travel restrictions during an outbreak. Preventing the movement of symptomatic individuals alone is

Spatio-temporal variability of the North Sea cod recruitment in relation to temperature and zooplankton.

PubMed

Nicolas, Delphine; Rochette, Sébastien; Llope, Marcos; Licandro, Priscilla

2014-01-01

The North Sea cod (Gadus morhua, L.) stock has continuously declined over the past four decades linked with overfishing and climate change. Changes in stock structure due to overfishing have made the stock largely dependent on its recruitment success, which greatly relies on environmental conditions. Here we focus on the spatio-temporal variability of cod recruitment in an effort to detect changes during the critical early life stages. Using International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) data from 1974 to 2011, a major spatio-temporal change in the distribution of cod recruits was identified in the late 1990s, characterized by a pronounced decrease in the central and southeastern North Sea stock. Other minor spatial changes were also recorded in the mid-1980s and early 1990s. We tested whether the observed changes in recruits distribution could be related with direct (i.e. temperature) and/or indirect (i.e. changes in the quantity and quality of zooplankton prey) effects of climate variability. The analyses were based on spatially-resolved time series, i.e. sea surface temperature (SST) from the Hadley Center and zooplankton records from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey. We showed that spring SST increase was the main driver for the most recent decrease in cod recruitment. The late 1990s were also characterized by relatively low total zooplankton biomass, particularly of energy-rich zooplankton such as the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which have further contributed to the decline of North Sea cod recruitment. Long-term spatially-resolved observations were used to produce regional distribution models that could further be used to predict the abundance of North Sea cod recruits based on temperature and zooplankton food availability.

Spatio-Temporal Variability of the North Sea Cod Recruitment in Relation to Temperature and Zooplankton

PubMed Central

Nicolas, Delphine; Rochette, Sébastien; Llope, Marcos; Licandro, Priscilla

2014-01-01

The North Sea cod (Gadus morhua, L.) stock has continuously declined over the past four decades linked with overfishing and climate change. Changes in stock structure due to overfishing have made the stock largely dependent on its recruitment success, which greatly relies on environmental conditions. Here we focus on the spatio-temporal variability of cod recruitment in an effort to detect changes during the critical early life stages. Using International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) data from 1974 to 2011, a major spatio-temporal change in the distribution of cod recruits was identified in the late 1990s, characterized by a pronounced decrease in the central and southeastern North Sea stock. Other minor spatial changes were also recorded in the mid-1980s and early 1990s. We tested whether the observed changes in recruits distribution could be related with direct (i.e. temperature) and/or indirect (i.e. changes in the quantity and quality of zooplankton prey) effects of climate variability. The analyses were based on spatially-resolved time series, i.e. sea surface temperature (SST) from the Hadley Center and zooplankton records from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey. We showed that spring SST increase was the main driver for the most recent decrease in cod recruitment. The late 1990s were also characterized by relatively low total zooplankton biomass, particularly of energy-rich zooplankton such as the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which have further contributed to the decline of North Sea cod recruitment. Long-term spatially-resolved observations were used to produce regional distribution models that could further be used to predict the abundance of North Sea cod recruits based on temperature and zooplankton food availability. PMID:24551103

Spatio-temporal effects of low impact development practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilroy, Kristin L.; McCuen, Richard H.

2009-04-01

SummaryThe increase in land development and urbanization experienced in the US and worldwide is causing environmental degradation. Traditional off-site stormwater management does not protect small streams. To mitigate the negative effects of land development, best management practices (BMPs) are being implemented into stormwater management policies for the purposes of controlling minor flooding and improving water quality. Unfortunately, the effectiveness of BMPs has not been extensively studied. The purpose of this research was to analyze the effects of both location and quantity of two types of BMPs: cisterns and bioretention pits. A spatio-temporal model of a microwatershed was developed to determine the effects of BMPs on single-family, townhome, and commercial lots. The effects of development and the BMPs on peak runoff rates and volumes were compared to pre-development conditions. The results show that cisterns alone are capable of controlling rooftop runoff for small storms. Both the spatial location and the volume of BMP storage on a microwatershed influences the effectiveness of BMPs. The volume of BMP storage is positively correlated to the percent reduction in the peak discharge rate and total runoff volume; however, location is a factor in the peak reduction and a maximum volume of effective storage for both hydrologic metrics does exist. These results provide guidelines for developing stormwater management policies that can potentially reduce pollution of first-order streams, lower the cost and maintenance requirements, enhance aesthetics, and increase safety.

Benefiting from a migratory prey: spatio-temporal patterns in allochthonous subsidization of an Arctic predator.

PubMed

Giroux, Marie-Andrée; Berteaux, Dominique; Lecomte, Nicolas; Gauthier, Gilles; Szor, Guillaume; Bêty, Joël

2012-05-01

1. Flows of nutrients and energy across ecosystem boundaries have the potential to subsidize consumer populations and modify the dynamics of food webs, but how spatio-temporal variations in autochthonous and allochthonous resources affect consumers' subsidization remains largely unexplored. 2. We studied spatio-temporal patterns in the allochthonous subsidization of a predator living in a relatively simple ecosystem. We worked on Bylot Island (Nunavut, Canada), where arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus L.) feed preferentially on lemmings (Lemmus trimucronatus and Dicrostonyx groenlandicus Traill), and alternatively on colonial greater snow geese (Anser caerulescens atlanticus L.). Geese migrate annually from their wintering grounds (where they feed on farmlands and marshes) to the Canadian Arctic, thus generating a strong flow of nutrients and energy across ecosystem boundaries. 3. We examined the influence of spatial variations in availability of geese on the diet of fox cubs (2003-2005) and on fox reproductive output (1996-2005) during different phases of the lemming cycle. 4. Using stable isotope analysis and a simple statistical routine developed to analyse the outputs of a multisource mixing model (SIAR), we showed that the contribution of geese to the diet of arctic fox cubs decreased with distance from the goose colony. 5. The probability that a den was used for reproduction by foxes decreased with distance from the subsidized goose colony and increased with lemming abundance. When lemmings were highly abundant, the effect of distance from the colony disappeared. The goose colony thus generated a spatial patterning of reproduction probability of foxes, while the lemming cycle generated a strong temporal variation of reproduction probability of foxes. 6. This study shows how the input of energy owing to the large-scale migration of prey affects the functional and reproductive responses of an opportunistic consumer, and how this input is spatially and

Spatio-temporal dynamics of ocean conditions and forage taxa reveal regional structuring of seabird–prey relationships.

PubMed

Santora, Jarrod A; Schroeder, Isaac D; Field, John C; Wells, Brian K; Sydeman, William J

Studies of predator–prey demographic responses and the physical drivers of such relationships are rare, yet essential for predicting future changes in the structure and dynamics of marine ecosystems. Here, we hypothesize that predator–prey relationships vary spatially in association with underlying physical ocean conditions, leading to observable changes in demographic rates, such as reproduction. To test this hypothesis, we quantified spatio-temporal variability in hydrographic conditions, krill, and forage fish to model predator (seabird) demographic responses over 18 years (1990–2007). We used principal component analysis and spatial correlation maps to assess coherence among ocean conditions, krill, and forage fish, and generalized additive models to quantify interannual variability in seabird breeding success relative to prey abundance. The first principal component of four hydrographic measurements yielded an index that partitioned “warm/weak upwelling” and “cool/strong upwelling” years. Partitioning of krill and forage fish time series among shelf and oceanic regions yielded spatially explicit indicators of prey availability. Krill abundance within the oceanic region was remarkably consistent between years, whereas krill over the shelf showed marked interannual fluctuations in relation to ocean conditions. Anchovy abundance varied on the shelf, and was greater in years of strong stratification, weak upwelling and warmer temperatures. Spatio-temporal variability of juvenile forage fish co-varied strongly with each other and with krill, but was weakly correlated with hydrographic conditions. Demographic responses between seabirds and prey availability revealed spatially variable associations indicative of the dynamic nature of “predator–habitat” relationships. Quantification of spatially explicit demographic responses, and their variability through time, demonstrate the possibility of delineating specific critical areas where the

A spatio-temporally compensated acousto-optic scanner for two-photon microscopy providing large field of view.

PubMed

Kremer, Y; Léger, J-F; Lapole, R; Honnorat, N; Candela, Y; Dieudonné, S; Bourdieu, L

2008-07-07

Acousto-optic deflectors (AOD) are promising ultrafast scanners for non-linear microscopy. Their use has been limited until now by their small scanning range and by the spatial and temporal dispersions of the laser beam going through the deflectors. We show that the use of AOD of large aperture (13mm) compared to standard deflectors allows accessing much larger field of view while minimizing spatio-temporal distortions. An acousto-optic modulator (AOM) placed at distance of the AOD is used to compensate spatial and temporal dispersions. Fine tuning of the AOM-AOD setup using a frequency-resolved optical gating (GRENOUILLE) allows elimination of pulse front tilt whereas spatial chirp is minimized thanks to the large aperture AOD.

Review of complex networks application in hydroclimatic extremes with an implementation to characterize spatio-temporal drought propagation in continental USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konapala, Goutam; Mishra, Ashok

2017-12-01

The quantification of spatio-temporal hydroclimatic extreme events is a key variable in water resources planning, disaster mitigation, and preparing climate resilient society. However, quantification of these extreme events has always been a great challenge, which is further compounded by climate variability and change. Recently complex network theory was applied in earth science community to investigate spatial connections among hydrologic fluxes (e.g., rainfall and streamflow) in water cycle. However, there are limited applications of complex network theory for investigating hydroclimatic extreme events. This article attempts to provide an overview of complex networks and extreme events, event synchronization method, construction of networks, their statistical significance and the associated network evaluation metrics. For illustration purpose, we apply the complex network approach to study the spatio-temporal evolution of droughts in Continental USA (CONUS). A different drought threshold leads to a new drought event as well as different socio-economic implications. Therefore, it would be interesting to explore the role of thresholds on spatio-temporal evolution of drought through network analysis. In this study, long term (1900-2016) Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) was selected for spatio-temporal drought analysis using three network-based metrics (i.e., strength, direction and distance). The results indicate that the drought events propagate differently at different thresholds associated with initiation of drought events. The direction metrics indicated that onset of mild drought events usually propagate in a more spatially clustered and uniform approach compared to onsets of moderate droughts. The distance metric shows that the drought events propagate for longer distance in western part compared to eastern part of CONUS. We believe that the network-aided metrics utilized in this study can be an important tool in advancing our knowledge on drought

Sensor Web for Spatio-Temporal Monitoring of a Hydrological Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delin, K. A.; Jackson, S. P.; Johnson, D. W.; Burleigh, S. C.; Woodrow, R. R.; McAuley, M.; Britton, J. T.; Dohm, J. M.; Ferre, T. P. A.; Ip, Felipe

2004-01-01

The Sensor Web is a macroinstrument concept that allows for the spatio-temporal understanding of an environment through coordinated efforts between multiple numbers and types of sensing platforms, including, in its most general form, both orbital and terrestrial and both fixed and mobile. Each of these platforms, or pods, communicates within its local neighborhood and thus distributes information to the instrument as a whole. The result of sharing and continual processing of this information among all the Sensor Web elements will result in an information flow and a global perception of and reactive capability to the environment. As illustrated, the Sensor Web concept also allows for the recursive notion of a web of webs with individual distributed instruments possibly playing the role of a single node point on a larger Sensor Web instrument. In particular, the fusion of inexpensive, yet sophisticated, commercial technology from both the computation and telecommunication revolutions has enabled the development of practical, fielded, and embedded in situ systems that have been the focus of the NASA/JPL Sensor Webs Project (http://sensorwebs.jpl.nasa.gov/). These Sensor Webs are complete systems consisting of not only the pod elements that wirelessly communicate among themselves, but also interfacing and archiving software that allows for easy use by the end-user. Previous successful deployments have included environments as diverse as coastal regions, Antarctica, and desert areas. The Sensor Web has broad implications for Earth and planetary science and will revolutionize the way experiments and missions are conceived and performed. As part of our current efforts to develop a macrointelligence within the system, we have deployed a Sensor Web at the Central Avra Valley Storage and Recovery Project (CAVSARP) facility located west of Tucson, AZ. This particular site was selected because it is ideal for studying spatio-temporal phenomena and for providing a test site for

State estimation of spatio-temporal phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Dan

This dissertation addresses the state estimation problem of spatio-temporal phenomena which can be modeled by partial differential equations (PDEs), such as pollutant dispersion in the atmosphere. After discretizing the PDE, the dynamical system has a large number of degrees of freedom (DOF). State estimation using Kalman Filter (KF) is computationally intractable, and hence, a reduced order model (ROM) needs to be constructed first. Moreover, the nonlinear terms, external disturbances or unknown boundary conditions can be modeled as unknown inputs, which leads to an unknown input filtering problem. Furthermore, the performance of KF could be improved by placing sensors at feasible locations. Therefore, the sensor scheduling problem to place multiple mobile sensors is of interest. The first part of the dissertation focuses on model reduction for large scale systems with a large number of inputs/outputs. A commonly used model reduction algorithm, the balanced proper orthogonal decomposition (BPOD) algorithm, is not computationally tractable for large systems with a large number of inputs/outputs. Inspired by the BPOD and randomized algorithms, we propose a randomized proper orthogonal decomposition (RPOD) algorithm and a computationally optimal RPOD (RPOD*) algorithm, which construct an ROM to capture the input-output behaviour of the full order model, while reducing the computational cost of BPOD by orders of magnitude. It is demonstrated that the proposed RPOD* algorithm could construct the ROM in real-time, and the performance of the proposed algorithms on different advection-diffusion equations. Next, we consider the state estimation problem of linear discrete-time systems with unknown inputs which can be treated as a wide-sense stationary process with rational power spectral density, while no other prior information needs to be known. We propose an autoregressive (AR) model based unknown input realization technique which allows us to recover the input

Spatio-temporal Genetic Structuring of Leishmania major in Tunisia by Microsatellite Analysis

PubMed Central

Harrabi, Myriam; Bettaieb, Jihène; Ghawar, Wissem; Toumi, Amine; Zaâtour, Amor; Yazidi, Rihab; Chaâbane, Sana; Chalghaf, Bilel; Hide, Mallorie; Bañuls, Anne-Laure; Ben Salah, Afif

2015-01-01

In Tunisia, cases of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania major are increasing and spreading from the south-west to new areas in the center. To improve the current knowledge on L. major evolution and population dynamics, we performed multi-locus microsatellite typing of human isolates from Tunisian governorates where the disease is endemic (Gafsa, Kairouan and Sidi Bouzid governorates) and collected during two periods: 1991–1992 and 2008–2012. Analysis (F-statistics and Bayesian model-based approach) of the genotyping results of isolates collected in Sidi Bouzid in 1991–1992 and 2008–2012 shows that, over two decades, in the same area, Leishmania parasites evolved by generating genetically differentiated populations. The genetic patterns of 2008–2012 isolates from the three governorates indicate that L. major populations did not spread gradually from the south to the center of Tunisia, according to a geographical gradient, suggesting that human activities might be the source of the disease expansion. The genotype analysis also suggests previous (Bayesian model-based approach) and current (F-statistics) flows of genotypes between governorates and districts. Human activities as well as reservoir dynamics and the effects of environmental changes could explain how the disease progresses. This study provides new insights into the evolution and spread of L. major in Tunisia that might improve our understanding of the parasite flow between geographically and temporally distinct populations. PMID:26302440

Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data.

PubMed

Guo, Xuan; Liu, Bing; Chen, Le; Chen, Guantao; Pan, Yi; Zhang, Jing

2016-01-01

This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM), Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM), and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM), and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

Nonparametric Bayesian models through probit stick-breaking processes

PubMed Central

Rodríguez, Abel; Dunson, David B.

2013-01-01

We describe a novel class of Bayesian nonparametric priors based on stick-breaking constructions where the weights of the process are constructed as probit transformations of normal random variables. We show that these priors are extremely flexible, allowing us to generate a great variety of models while preserving computational simplicity. Particular emphasis is placed on the construction of rich temporal and spatial processes, which are applied to two problems in finance and ecology. PMID:24358072

Nonparametric Bayesian models through probit stick-breaking processes.

PubMed

Rodríguez, Abel; Dunson, David B

2011-03-01

We describe a novel class of Bayesian nonparametric priors based on stick-breaking constructions where the weights of the process are constructed as probit transformations of normal random variables. We show that these priors are extremely flexible, allowing us to generate a great variety of models while preserving computational simplicity. Particular emphasis is placed on the construction of rich temporal and spatial processes, which are applied to two problems in finance and ecology.

Leaders and followers: quantifying consistency in spatio-temporal propagation patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreuz, Thomas; Satuvuori, Eero; Pofahl, Martin; Mulansky, Mario

2017-04-01

Repetitive spatio-temporal propagation patterns are encountered in fields as wide-ranging as climatology, social communication and network science. In neuroscience, perfectly consistent repetitions of the same global propagation pattern are called a synfire pattern. For any recording of sequences of discrete events (in neuroscience terminology: sets of spike trains) the questions arise how closely it resembles such a synfire pattern and which are the spike trains that lead/follow. Here we address these questions and introduce an algorithm built on two new indicators, termed SPIKE-order and spike train order, that define the synfire indicator value, which allows to sort multiple spike trains from leader to follower and to quantify the consistency of the temporal leader-follower relationships for both the original and the optimized sorting. We demonstrate our new approach using artificially generated datasets before we apply it to analyze the consistency of propagation patterns in two real datasets from neuroscience (giant depolarized potentials in mice slices) and climatology (El Niño sea surface temperature recordings). The new algorithm is distinguished by conceptual and practical simplicity, low computational cost, as well as flexibility and universality.

Contour Tracking with a Spatio-Temporal Intensity Moment.

PubMed

Demi, Marcello

2016-06-01

Standard edge detection operators such as the Laplacian of Gaussian and the gradient of Gaussian can be used to track contours in image sequences. When using edge operators, a contour, which is determined on a frame of the sequence, is simply used as a starting contour to locate the nearest contour on the subsequent frame. However, the strategy used to look for the nearest edge points may not work when tracking contours of non isolated gray level discontinuities. In these cases, strategies derived from the optical flow equation, which look for similar gray level distributions, appear to be more appropriate since these can work with a lower frame rate than that needed for strategies based on pure edge detection operators. However, an optical flow strategy tends to propagate the localization errors through the sequence and an additional edge detection procedure is essential to compensate for such a drawback. In this paper a spatio-temporal intensity moment is proposed which integrates the two basic functions of edge detection and tracking.

A Bayesian Network approach for flash flood risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boutkhamouine, Brahim; Roux, Hélène; Pérès, François

2017-04-01

Climate change is contributing to the increase of natural disasters such as extreme weather events. Sometimes, these events lead to sudden flash floods causing devastating effects on life and property. Most recently, many regions of the French Mediterranean perimeter have endured such catastrophic flood events; Var (October 2015), Ardèche (November 2014), Nîmes (October 2014), Hérault, Gard and Languedoc (September 2014), and Pyrenees mountains (Jun 2013). Altogether, it resulted in dozens of victims and property damages amounting to millions of euros. With this heavy loss in mind, development of hydrological forecasting and warning systems is becoming an essential element in regional and national strategies. Flash flood forecasting but also monitoring is a difficult task because small ungauged catchments ( 10 km2) are often the most destructive ones as for the extreme flash flood event of September 2002 in the Cévennes region (France) (Ruin et al., 2008). The problem of measurement/prediction uncertainty is particularly crucial when attempting to develop operational flash-flood forecasting methods. Taking into account the uncertainty related to the model structure itself, to the model parametrization or to the model forcing (spatio-temporal rainfall, initial conditions) is crucial in hydrological modelling. Quantifying these uncertainties is of primary importance for risk assessment and decision making. Although significant improvements have been made in computational power and distributed hydrologic modelling, the issue dealing with integration of uncertainties into flood forecasting remains up-to-date and challenging. In order to develop a framework which could handle these uncertainties and explain their propagation through the model, we propose to explore the potential of graphical models (GMs) and, more precisely, Bayesian Networks (BNs). These networks are Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) in which knowledge of a certain phenomenon is represented by

Water Quality Sensing and Spatio-Temporal Monitoring Structure with Autocorrelation Kernel Methods

PubMed Central

Vizcaíno, Iván P.; Muñoz-Romero, Sergio; Cumbal, Luis H.

2017-01-01

Pollution on water resources is usually analyzed with monitoring campaigns, which consist of programmed sampling, measurement, and recording of the most representative water quality parameters. These campaign measurements yields a non-uniform spatio-temporal sampled data structure to characterize complex dynamics phenomena. In this work, we propose an enhanced statistical interpolation method to provide water quality managers with statistically interpolated representations of spatial-temporal dynamics. Specifically, our proposal makes efficient use of the a priori available information of the quality parameter measurements through Support Vector Regression (SVR) based on Mercer’s kernels. The methods are benchmarked against previously proposed methods in three segments of the Machángara River and one segment of the San Pedro River in Ecuador, and their different dynamics are shown by statistically interpolated spatial-temporal maps. The best interpolation performance in terms of mean absolute error was the SVR with Mercer’s kernel given by either the Mahalanobis spatial-temporal covariance matrix or by the bivariate estimated autocorrelation function. In particular, the autocorrelation kernel provides with significant improvement of the estimation quality, consistently for all the six water quality variables, which points out the relevance of including a priori knowledge of the problem. PMID:29035333

Spatio-temporal analysis of brain electrical activity in epilepsy based on cellular nonlinear networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gollas, Frank; Tetzlaff, Ronald

2009-05-01

Epilepsy is the most common chronic disorder of the nervous system. Generally, epileptic seizures appear without foregoing sign or warning. The problem of detecting a possible pre-seizure state in epilepsy from EEG signals has been addressed by many authors over the past decades. Different approaches of time series analysis of brain electrical activity already are providing valuable insights into the underlying complex dynamics. But the main goal the identification of an impending epileptic seizure with a sufficient specificity and reliability, has not been achieved up to now. An algorithm for a reliable, automated prediction of epileptic seizures would enable the realization of implantable seizure warning devices, which could provide valuable information to the patient and time/event specific drug delivery or possibly a direct electrical nerve stimulation. Cellular Nonlinear Networks (CNN) are promising candidates for future seizure warning devices. CNN are characterized by local couplings of comparatively simple dynamical systems. With this property these networks are well suited to be realized as highly parallel, analog computer chips. Today available CNN hardware realizations exhibit a processing speed in the range of TeraOps combined with low power consumption. In this contribution new algorithms based on the spatio-temporal dynamics of CNN are considered in order to analyze intracranial EEG signals and thus taking into account mutual dependencies between neighboring regions of the brain. In an identification procedure Reaction-Diffusion CNN (RD-CNN) are determined for short segments of brain electrical activity, by means of a supervised parameter optimization. RD-CNN are deduced from Reaction-Diffusion Systems, which usually are applied to investigate complex phenomena like nonlinear wave propagation or pattern formation. The Local Activity Theory provides a necessary condition for emergent behavior in RD-CNN. In comparison linear spatio-temporal

Holocene forest dynamics in central and western Mediterranean: periodicity, spatio-temporal patterns and climate influence.

PubMed

Di Rita, Federico; Fletcher, William J; Aranbarri, Josu; Margaritelli, Giulia; Lirer, Fabrizio; Magri, Donatella

2018-06-12

It is well-known that the Holocene exhibits a millennial-scale climate variability. However, its periodicity, spatio-temporal patterns and underlying processes are not fully deciphered yet. Here we focus on the central and western Mediterranean. We show that recurrent forest declines from the Gulf of Gaeta (central Tyrrhenian Sea) reveal a 1860-yr periodicity, consistent with a ca. 1800-yr climate fluctuation induced by large-scale changes in climate modes, linked to solar activity and/or AMOC intensity. We show that recurrent forest declines and dry events are also recorded in several pollen and palaeohydrological proxy-records in the south-central Mediterranean. We found coeval events also in several palaeohydrological records from the south-western Mediterranean, which however show generally wet climate conditions, indicating a spatio-temporal hydrological pattern opposite to the south-central Mediterranean and suggesting that different expressions of climate modes occurred in the two regions at the same time. We propose that these opposite hydroclimate regimes point to a complex interplay of the prevailing or predominant phases of NAO-like circulation, East Atlantic pattern, and extension and location of the North African anticyclone. At a larger geographical scale, displacements of the ITCZ, modulated by solar activity and/or AMOC intensity, may have also indirectly influenced the observed pattern.

Spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal clusters of measles incidence at the county level in Guangxi, China during 2004-2014: flexibly shaped scan statistics.

PubMed

Tang, Xianyan; Geater, Alan; McNeil, Edward; Deng, Qiuyun; Dong, Aihu; Zhong, Ge

2017-04-04

Outbreaks of measles re-emerged in Guangxi province during 2013-2014, where measles again became a major public health concern. A better understanding of the patterns of measles cases would help in identifying high-risk areas and periods for optimizing preventive strategies, yet these patterns remain largely unknown. Thus, this study aimed to determine the patterns of measles clusters in space, time and space-time at the county level over the period 2004-2014 in Guangxi. Annual data on measles cases and population sizes for each county were obtained from Guangxi CDC and Guangxi Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Epidemic curves and Kulldorff's temporal scan statistics were used to identify seasonal peaks and high-risk periods. Tango's flexible scan statistics were implemented to determine irregular spatial clusters. Spatio-temporal clusters in elliptical cylinder shapes were detected by Kulldorff's scan statistics. Population attributable risk percent (PAR%) of children aged ≤24 months was used to identify regions with a heavy burden of measles. Seasonal peaks occurred between April and June, and a temporal measles cluster was detected in 2014. Spatial clusters were identified in West, Southwest and North Central Guangxi. Three phases of spatio-temporal clusters with high relative risk were detected: Central Guangxi during 2004-2005, Midwest Guangxi in 2007, and West and Southwest Guangxi during 2013-2014. Regions with high PAR% were mainly clustered in West, Southwest, North and Central Guangxi. A temporal uptrend of measles incidence existed in Guangxi between 2010 and 2014, while downtrend during 2004-2009. The hotspots shifted from Central to West and Southwest Guangxi, regions overburdened with measles. Thus, intensifying surveillance of timeliness and completeness of routine vaccination and implementing supplementary immunization activities for measles should prioritized in these regions.

An Online Atlas for Exploring Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Cancer Mortality (1972-2011) and Incidence (1995-2008) in Taiwan.

PubMed

Ku, Wen-Yuan; Liaw, Yung-Po; Huang, Jing-Yang; Nfor, Oswald Ndi; Hsu, Shu-Yi; Ko, Pei-Chieh; Lee, Wen-Chung; Chen, Chien-Jen

2016-05-01

Public health mapping and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are already being used to locate the geographical spread of diseases. This study describes the construction of an easy-to-use online atlas of cancer mortality (1972-2011) and incidence (1995-2008) in Taiwan.Two sets of color maps were made based on "age-adjusted mortality by rate" and "age-adjusted mortality by rank." AJAX (Asynchronous JavaScript and XML), JSON (JavaScript Object Notation), and SVG (Scaling Vector Graphic) were used to create the online atlas. Spatio-temporal patterns of cancer mortality and incidence in Taiwan over the period from 1972 to 2011 and from 1995 to 2008.The constructed online atlas contains information on cancer mortality and incidence (http://taiwancancermap.csmu-liawyp.tw/). The common GIS functions include zoom and pan and identity tools. Users can easily customize the maps to explore the spatio-temporal trends of cancer mortality and incidence using different devices (such as personal computers, mobile phone, or pad). This study suggests an easy- to-use, low-cost, and independent platform for exploring cancer incidence and mortality. It is expected to serve as a reference tool for cancer prevention and risk assessment.This online atlas is a cheap and fast tool that integrates various cancer maps. Therefore, it can serve as a powerful tool that allows users to examine and compare spatio-temporal patterns of various maps. Furthermore, it is an-easy-to use tool for updating data and assessing risk factors of cancer in Taiwan.

Spatio-temporal environmental data tide corrections for reconnaissance operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbu, Costin; Avera, Will; Harris, Mike; Malpass, Kevyn

2005-06-01

Dynamic, accurate near-real time environmental data is critical to the success of the mine countermeasures operations. Bathymetric data acquired from the AQS-20 mine hunting sensor should be adjusted for local tide variations related to the specific geographic area and time interval. This problem can be overcome by a spatio-temporal estimate of tide corrections provided for the area and time of interest by the Naval Research Laboratory tide prediction code PCTides. For each geographic position of the AQS-20 sonar, a tide height relative to mean sea level is computed by interpolating the tidal information from the K - nearest neighbored stations for the corresponding time. The value is used to correct the measured depth generated by the AQS-20 sonar in that location to mean sea level for fusion with other bathymetric data products. It is argued that this paper provides a useful tool to the MCM decision factors during Mine Warfare operations.

Spatio-temporal patterns of soil erosion and suspended sediment dynamics in the Mekong River Basin.

PubMed

Suif, Zuliziana; Fleifle, Amr; Yoshimura, Chihiro; Saavedra, Oliver

2016-10-15

Understanding of the distribution patterns of sediment erosion, concentration and transport in river basins is critically important as sediment plays a major role in river basin hydrophysical and ecological processes. In this study, we proposed an integrated framework for the assessment of sediment dynamics, including soil erosion (SE), suspended sediment load (SSL) and suspended sediment concentration (SSC), and applied this framework to the Mekong River Basin. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model was adopted with a geographic information system to assess SE and was coupled with a sediment accumulation and a routing scheme to simulate SSL. This framework also analyzed Landsat imagery captured between 1987 and 2000 together with ground observations to interpolate spatio-temporal patterns of SSC. The simulated SSL results from 1987 to 2000 showed the relative root mean square error of 41% and coefficient of determination (R(2)) of 0.89. The polynomial relationship of the near infrared exoatmospheric reflectance and the band 4 wavelength (760-900nm) to the observed SSC at 9 sites demonstrated the good agreement (overall relative RMSE=5.2%, R(2)=0.87). The result found that the severe SE occurs in the upper (China and Lao PDR) and lower (western part of Vietnam) regions. The SSC in the rainy season (June-November) showed increasing and decreasing trends longitudinally in the upper (China and Lao PDR) and lower regions (Cambodia), respectively, while the longitudinal profile of SSL showed a fluctuating trend along the river in the early rainy season. Overall, the results described the unique spatio-temporal patterns of SE, SSL and SSC in the Mekong River Basin. Thus, the proposed integrated framework is useful for elucidating complex process of sediment generation and transport in the land and river systems of large river basins. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Large-scale spatio-temporal monitoring highlights hotspots of demersal fish diversity in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granger, Victoria; Fromentin, Jean-Marc; Bez, Nicolas; Relini, Giulio; Meynard, Christine N.; Gaertner, Jean-Claude; Maiorano, Porzia; Garcia Ruiz, Cristina; Follesa, Cristina; Gristina, Michele; Peristeraki, Panagiota; Brind'Amour, Anik; Carbonara, Pierluigi; Charilaou, Charis; Esteban, Antonio; Jadaud, Angélique; Joksimovic, Aleksandar; Kallianiotis, Argyris; Kolitari, Jerina; Manfredi, Chiara; Massuti, Enric; Mifsud, Roberta; Quetglas, Antoni; Refes, Wahid; Sbrana, Mario; Vrgoc, Nedo; Spedicato, Maria Teresa; Mérigot, Bastien

2015-01-01

Increasing human pressures and global environmental change may severely affect the diversity of species assemblages and associated ecosystem services. Despite the recent interest in phylogenetic and functional diversity, our knowledge on large spatio-temporal patterns of demersal fish diversity sampled by trawling remains still incomplete, notably in the Mediterranean Sea, one of the most threatened marine regions of the world. We investigated large spatio-temporal diversity patterns by analysing a dataset of 19,886 hauls from 10 to 800 m depth performed annually during the last two decades by standardised scientific bottom trawl field surveys across the Mediterranean Sea, within the MEDITS program. A multi-component (eight diversity indices) and multi-scale (local assemblages, biogeographic regions to basins) approach indicates that only the two most traditional components (species richness and evenness) were sufficient to reflect patterns in taxonomic, phylogenetic or functional richness and divergence. We also put into question the use of widely computed indices that allow comparing directly taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity within a unique mathematical framework. In addition, demersal fish assemblages sampled by trawl do not follow a continuous decreasing longitudinal/latitudinal diversity gradients (spatial effects explained up to 70.6% of deviance in regression tree and generalised linear models), for any of the indices and spatial scales analysed. Indeed, at both local and regional scales species richness was relatively high in the Iberian region, Malta, the Eastern Ionian and Aegean seas, meanwhile the Adriatic Sea and Cyprus showed a relatively low level. In contrast, evenness as well as taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional divergences did not show regional hotspots. All studied diversity components remained stable over the last two decades. Overall, our results highlight the need to use complementary diversity indices through different

Spatio-temporal alignment of pedobarographic image sequences.

PubMed

Oliveira, Francisco P M; Sousa, Andreia; Santos, Rubim; Tavares, João Manuel R S

2011-07-01

This article presents a methodology to align plantar pressure image sequences simultaneously in time and space. The spatial position and orientation of a foot in a sequence are changed to match the foot represented in a second sequence. Simultaneously with the spatial alignment, the temporal scale of the first sequence is transformed with the aim of synchronizing the two input footsteps. Consequently, the spatial correspondence of the foot regions along the sequences as well as the temporal synchronizing is automatically attained, making the study easier and more straightforward. In terms of spatial alignment, the methodology can use one of four possible geometric transformation models: rigid, similarity, affine, or projective. In the temporal alignment, a polynomial transformation up to the 4th degree can be adopted in order to model linear and curved time behaviors. Suitable geometric and temporal transformations are found by minimizing the mean squared error (MSE) between the input sequences. The methodology was tested on a set of real image sequences acquired from a common pedobarographic device. When used in experimental cases generated by applying geometric and temporal control transformations, the methodology revealed high accuracy. In addition, the intra-subject alignment tests from real plantar pressure image sequences showed that the curved temporal models produced better MSE results (P < 0.001) than the linear temporal model. This article represents an important step forward in the alignment of pedobarographic image data, since previous methods can only be applied on static images.

Spatio-Temporal Analysis to Predict Environmental Influence on Malaria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baig, S.; Sarfraz, M. S.

2018-05-01

Malaria is a vector borne disease which is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. It is one of the major diseases in the category of infectious diseases. The survival and bionomics of malaria is affected by environmental factors such as climatic, demographic and land-use/land-cover etc. Currently, a very few under developing countries are using Geo-informatics approaches to control this disease. Gujrat a district of Pakistan, is still under threat of malaria disease. Current research is carried on malaria incidents obtained from District Executive Officer of Health Gujrat. The objective of this study was to explore the spatio-temporal patterns of malaria in district Gujrat and to identify the areas being affected by Malaria. Furthermore, it has been also analyzed the relationship between malaria incident and environmental factors in highly favorable zones. Data is analyzed based on spatial and temporal patterns using (Moran's I). Moreover cluster and hot spots analysis were performed on the incident data. This study shows positive correlation with rainfall, vegetation index, population density and water bodies; while it shows positive and negative correlation with temperature in different seasons. However, variation between amount of vegetation and water bodies were observed. Finding of this research can help the decision makers to take preventive measures and reduce the morbidity and mortality related with malaria in Gujrat, Pakistan.

Spatio-temporal variability of soil water content on the local scale in a Mediterranean mountain area (Vallcebre, North Eastern Spain). How different spatio-temporal scales reflect mean soil water content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina, Antonio J.; Latron, Jérôme; Rubio, Carles M.; Gallart, Francesc; Llorens, Pilar

2014-08-01

As a result of complex human-land interactions and topographic variability, many Mediterranean mountain catchments are covered by agricultural terraces that have locally modified the soil water content dynamic. Understanding these local-scale dynamics helps us grasp better how hydrology behaves on the catchment scale. Thus, this study examined soil water content variability in the upper 30 cm of the soil on a Mediterranean abandoned terrace in north-east Spain. Using a dataset of high spatial (regular grid of 128 automatic TDR probes at 2.5 m intervals) and temporal (20-min time step) resolution, gathered throughout a 84-day period, the spatio-temporal variability of soil water content at the local scale and the way that different spatio-temporal scales reflect the mean soil water content were investigated. Soil water content spatial variability and its relation to wetness conditions were examined, along with the spatial structuring of the soil water content within the terrace. Then, the ability of single probes and of different combinations of spatial measurements (transects and grids) to provide a good estimate of mean soil water content on the terrace scale was explored by means of temporal stability analyses. Finally, the effect of monitoring frequency on the magnitude of detectable daily soil water content variations was studied. Results showed that soil water content spatial variability followed a bimodal pattern of increasing absolute variability with increasing soil water content. In addition, a linear trend of decreasing soil water content as the distance from the inner part of the terrace increased was identified. Once this trend was subtracted, resulting semi-variograms suggested that the spatial resolution examined was too high to appreciate spatial structuring in the data. Thus, the spatial pattern should be considered as random. Of all the spatial designs tested, the 10 × 10 m mesh grid (9 probes) was considered the most suitable option for a good

A spatio-temporal analysis of BSE cases born before and after the reinforced feed ban in France.

PubMed

Ducrot, Christian; Abrial, David; Calavas, Didier; Carpenter, Tim

2005-01-01

A spatio-temporal analysis was carried out to see how the risk distribution of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in France changed depending on the period of birth. The data concerned the 539 BSE cases born in France after the ban (BAB) of meat and bone meal (MBM) in 1990 and detected between July 1, 2001 and December 31, 2003, when the surveillance of BSE was comprehensive. Seventy-two of these cases were born after the reinforced (second) ban (BASB) in 1996, which involved the removal of BSE-risk materials and cadavers from the processing of MBM. The Ederer-Myers-Mantel (EMM) time and space cluster test was applied, after classifying the cases by trimester and region of birth, BAB or BASB status, and dairy or beef status. Then disease mapping was performed for four successive birth periods, three for the BAB cases (January 1991 through June 1994, July 1994 through June 1995, July 1995 through June 1996), and one for the BASB (July 1996 through October 1998). It was elaborated with the Bayesian graphical modelling methods and based on a Poisson distribution with spatial smoothing. The parameters were estimated by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method. The main finding was that the areas with the highest risk of BSE changed largely from one birth period to another; from the west, it reached the east of France for birth cohort 1994-1995 and the southwest for birth cohort 1995-1996. The EMM test identified a peak risk in this region both for dairy and beef cattle in the fall 1995. The spatial distribution of the risk for the BASB cases matched the spatial pattern of risk for the preceding BAB birth cohort quite well; this was in favour of a common origin of the infection of the BAB and BASB cases, despite the complementary control measures.

High spatio-temporal resolution observations of crater-lake temperatures at Kawah Ijen volcano, East Java, Indonesia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lewicki, Jennifer L.; Corentin Caudron,; Vincent van Hinsberg,; George Hilley,

2016-01-01

The crater lake of Kawah Ijen volcano, East Java, Indonesia, has displayed large and rapid changes in temperature at point locations during periods of unrest, but measurement techniques employed to-date have not resolved how the lake’s thermal regime has evolved over both space and time. We applied a novel approach for mapping and monitoring variations in crater-lake apparent surface (“skin”) temperatures at high spatial (~32 cm) and temporal (every two minutes) resolution at Kawah Ijen on 18 September 2014. We used a ground-based FLIR T650sc camera with digital and thermal infrared (TIR) sensors from the crater rim to collect (1) a set of visible imagery around the crater during the daytime and (2) a time series of co-located visible and TIR imagery at one location from pre-dawn to daytime. We processed daytime visible imagery with the Structure-from-Motion photogrammetric method to create a digital elevation model onto which the time series of TIR imagery was orthorectified and georeferenced. Lake apparent skin temperatures typically ranged from ~21 to 33oC. At two locations, apparent skin temperatures were ~ 4 and 7 oC less than in-situ lake temperature measurements at 1.5 and 5 m depth, respectively. These differences, as well as the large spatio-temporal variations observed in skin temperatures, were likely largely associated with atmospheric effects such as evaporative cooling of the lake surface and infrared absorption by water vapor and SO2. Calculations based on orthorectified TIR imagery thus yielded underestimates of volcanic heat fluxes into the lake, whereas volcanic heat fluxes estimated based on in-situ temperature measurements (68 to 111 MW) were likely more representative of Kawah Ijen in a quiescent state. The ground-based imaging technique should provide a valuable tool to continuously monitor crater-lake temperatures and contribute insight into the spatio-temporal evolution of these temperatures associated with volcanic activity.

Monitoring and validating spatio-temporal continuously daily evapotranspiration and its components at river basin scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, L.; Liu, S.; Kustas, W. P.; Nieto, H.

2017-12-01

Operational estimation of spatio-temporal continuously daily evapotranspiration (ET), and the components evaporation (E) and transpiration (T), at watershed scale is very useful for developing a sustainable water resource strategy in semi-arid and arid areas. In this study, multi-year all-weather daily ET, E and T were estimated using MODIS-based (Dual Temperature Difference) DTD model under different land covers in Heihe watershed, China. The remotely sensed ET was validated using ground measurements from large aperture scintillometer systems, with a source area of several kilometers, under grassland, cropland and riparian shrub-forest. The results showed that the remotely sensed ET produced mean absolute percent deviation (MAPD) errors of about 30% during the growing season for all-weather conditions, but the model performed better under clear sky conditions. However, uncertainty in interpolated MODIS land surface temperature input data under cloudy conditions to the DTD model, and the representativeness of LAS measurements for the heterogeneous land surfaces contribute to the discrepancies between the modeled and ground measured surface heat fluxes, especially for the more humid grassland and heterogeneous shrub-forest sites.

Climate-driven changes to the spatio-temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode, Haemonchus contortus, in sheep in Europe.

PubMed

Rose, Hannah; Caminade, Cyril; Bolajoko, Muhammad Bashir; Phelan, Paul; van Dijk, Jan; Baylis, Matthew; Williams, Diana; Morgan, Eric R

2016-03-01

Recent climate change has resulted in changes to the phenology and distribution of invertebrates worldwide. Where invertebrates are associated with disease, climate variability and changes in climate may also affect the spatio-temporal dynamics of disease. Due to its significant impact on sheep production and welfare, the recent increase in diagnoses of ovine haemonchosis caused by the nematode Haemonchus contortus in some temperate regions is particularly concerning. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on H. contortus at a continental scale. A model of the basic reproductive quotient of macroparasites, Q0 , adapted to H. contortus and extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity and parasite behaviour, was used to simulate Pan-European spatio-temporal changes in H. contortus infection pressure under scenarios of climate change. Baseline Q0 simulations, using historic climate observations, reflected the current distribution of H. contortus in Europe. In northern Europe, the distribution of H. contortus is currently limited by temperatures falling below the development threshold during the winter months and within-host arrested development is necessary for population persistence over winter. In southern Europe, H. contortus infection pressure is limited during the summer months by increased temperature and decreased moisture. Compared with this baseline, Q0 simulations driven by a climate model ensemble predicted an increase in H. contortus infection pressure by the 2080s. In northern Europe, a temporal range expansion was predicted as the mean period of transmission increased by 2-3 months. A bimodal seasonal pattern of infection pressure, similar to that currently observed in southern Europe, emerges in northern Europe due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing moisture. The predicted patterns of change could alter the epidemiology of H. contortus in Europe, affect the future sustainability of contemporary

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Resident Trip Based on Poi and OD Data of Float CAR in Beijing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mou, N.; Li, J.; Zhang, L.; Liu, W.; Xu, Y.

2017-09-01

Due to the influence of the urban inherent regional functional distribution, the daily activities of the residents presented some spatio-temporal patterns (periodic patterns, gathering patterns, etc.). In order to further understand the spatial and temporal characteristics of urban residents, this paper research takes the taxi trajectory data of Beijing as a sample data and studies the spatio-temporal characteristics of the residents' activities on the weekdays. At first, according to the characteristics of the taxi trajectory data distributed along the road network, it takes the Voronoi generated by the road nodes as the research unit. This paper proposes a hybrid clustering method - based on grid density, which is used to cluster the OD (origin and destination) data of taxi at different times. Then combining with the POI data of Beijing, this research calculated the density of the POI data in the clustering results, and analyzed the relationship between the activities of residents in different periods and the functional types of the region. The final results showed that the residents were mainly commuting on weekdays. And it found that the distribution of travel density showed a concentric circle of the characteristics, focusing on residential areas and work areas. The results of cluster analysis and POI analysis showed that the residents' travel had experienced the process of "spatial relative dispersion - spatial aggregation - spatial relative dispersion" in one day.

Statistical study of spatio-temporal distribution of precursor solar flares associated with major flares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyenge, N.; Ballai, I.; Baranyi, T.

2016-07-01

The aim of the present investigation is to study the spatio-temporal distribution of precursor flares during the 24 h interval preceding M- and X-class major flares and the evolution of follower flares. Information on associated (precursor and follower) flares is provided by Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI). Flare list, while the major flares are observed by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) system satellites between 2002 and 2014. There are distinct evolutionary differences between the spatio-temporal distributions of associated flares in about one-day period depending on the type of the main flare. The spatial distribution was characterized by the normalized frequency distribution of the quantity δ (the distance between the major flare and its precursor flare normalized by the sunspot group diameter) in four 6 h time intervals before the major event. The precursors of X-class flares have a double-peaked spatial distribution for more than half a day prior to the major flare, but it changes to a lognormal-like distribution roughly 6 h prior to the event. The precursors of M-class flares show lognormal-like distribution in each 6 h subinterval. The most frequent sites of the precursors in the active region are within a distance of about 0.1 diameter of sunspot group from the site of the major flare in each case. Our investigation shows that the build-up of energy is more effective than the release of energy because of precursors.

Predicted spatio-temporal dynamics of radiocesium deposited onto forests following the Fukushima nuclear accident

PubMed Central

Hashimoto, Shoji; Matsuura, Toshiya; Nanko, Kazuki; Linkov, Igor; Shaw, George; Kaneko, Shinji

2013-01-01

The majority of the area contaminated by the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident is covered by forest. To facilitate effective countermeasure strategies to mitigate forest contamination, we simulated the spatio-temporal dynamics of radiocesium deposited into Japanese forest ecosystems in 2011 using a model that was developed after the Chernobyl accident in 1986. The simulation revealed that the radiocesium inventories in tree and soil surface organic layer components drop rapidly during the first two years after the fallout. Over a period of one to two years, the radiocesium is predicted to move from the tree and surface organic soil to the mineral soil, which eventually becomes the largest radiocesium reservoir within forest ecosystems. Although the uncertainty of our simulations should be considered, the results provide a basis for understanding and anticipating the future dynamics of radiocesium in Japanese forests following the Fukushima accident. PMID:23995073

Comparison of Co-Temporal Modeling Algorithms on Sparse Experimental Time Series Data Sets.

PubMed

Allen, Edward E; Norris, James L; John, David J; Thomas, Stan J; Turkett, William H; Fetrow, Jacquelyn S

2010-01-01

Multiple approaches for reverse-engineering biological networks from time-series data have been proposed in the computational biology literature. These approaches can be classified by their underlying mathematical algorithms, such as Bayesian or algebraic techniques, as well as by their time paradigm, which includes next-state and co-temporal modeling. The types of biological relationships, such as parent-child or siblings, discovered by these algorithms are quite varied. It is important to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the various algorithms and time paradigms on actual experimental data. We assess how well the co-temporal implementations of three algorithms, continuous Bayesian, discrete Bayesian, and computational algebraic, can 1) identify two types of entity relationships, parent and sibling, between biological entities, 2) deal with experimental sparse time course data, and 3) handle experimental noise seen in replicate data sets. These algorithms are evaluated, using the shuffle index metric, for how well the resulting models match literature models in terms of siblings and parent relationships. Results indicate that all three co-temporal algorithms perform well, at a statistically significant level, at finding sibling relationships, but perform relatively poorly in finding parent relationships.

Complex, Dynamic Combination of Physical, Chemical and Nutritional Variables Controls Spatio-Temporal Variation of Sandy Beach Community Structure

PubMed Central

Ortega Cisneros, Kelly; Smit, Albertus J.; Laudien, Jürgen; Schoeman, David S.

2011-01-01

Sandy beach ecological theory states that physical features of the beach control macrobenthic community structure on all but the most dissipative beaches. However, few studies have simultaneously evaluated the relative importance of physical, chemical and biological factors as potential explanatory variables for meso-scale spatio-temporal patterns of intertidal community structure in these systems. Here, we investigate macroinfaunal community structure of a micro-tidal sandy beach that is located on an oligotrophic subtropical coast and is influenced by seasonal estuarine input. We repeatedly sampled biological and environmental variables at a series of beach transects arranged at increasing distances from the estuary mouth. Sampling took place over a period of five months, corresponding with the transition between the dry and wet season. This allowed assessment of biological-physical relationships across chemical and nutritional gradients associated with a range of estuarine inputs. Physical, chemical, and biological response variables, as well as measures of community structure, showed significant spatio-temporal patterns. In general, bivariate relationships between biological and environmental variables were rare and weak. However, multivariate correlation approaches identified a variety of environmental variables (i.e., sampling session, the C∶N ratio of particulate organic matter, dissolved inorganic nutrient concentrations, various size fractions of photopigment concentrations, salinity and, to a lesser extent, beach width and sediment kurtosis) that either alone or combined provided significant explanatory power for spatio-temporal patterns of macroinfaunal community structure. Overall, these results showed that the macrobenthic community on Mtunzini Beach was not structured primarily by physical factors, but instead by a complex and dynamic blend of nutritional, chemical and physical drivers. This emphasises the need to recognise ocean-exposed sandy

Complex, dynamic combination of physical, chemical and nutritional variables controls spatio-temporal variation of sandy beach community structure.

PubMed

Ortega Cisneros, Kelly; Smit, Albertus J; Laudien, Jürgen; Schoeman, David S

2011-01-01

Sandy beach ecological theory states that physical features of the beach control macrobenthic community structure on all but the most dissipative beaches. However, few studies have simultaneously evaluated the relative importance of physical, chemical and biological factors as potential explanatory variables for meso-scale spatio-temporal patterns of intertidal community structure in these systems. Here, we investigate macroinfaunal community structure of a micro-tidal sandy beach that is located on an oligotrophic subtropical coast and is influenced by seasonal estuarine input. We repeatedly sampled biological and environmental variables at a series of beach transects arranged at increasing distances from the estuary mouth. Sampling took place over a period of five months, corresponding with the transition between the dry and wet season. This allowed assessment of biological-physical relationships across chemical and nutritional gradients associated with a range of estuarine inputs. Physical, chemical, and biological response variables, as well as measures of community structure, showed significant spatio-temporal patterns. In general, bivariate relationships between biological and environmental variables were rare and weak. However, multivariate correlation approaches identified a variety of environmental variables (i.e., sampling session, the C∶N ratio of particulate organic matter, dissolved inorganic nutrient concentrations, various size fractions of photopigment concentrations, salinity and, to a lesser extent, beach width and sediment kurtosis) that either alone or combined provided significant explanatory power for spatio-temporal patterns of macroinfaunal community structure. Overall, these results showed that the macrobenthic community on Mtunzini Beach was not structured primarily by physical factors, but instead by a complex and dynamic blend of nutritional, chemical and physical drivers. This emphasises the need to recognise ocean-exposed sandy

Wildlife in the Matrix: Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Herbivore Occurrence in Karnataka, India.

PubMed

Karanth, Krithi K

2016-01-01

Wildlife reserves are becoming increasingly isolated from the surrounding human-dominated landscapes particularly in Asia. It is imperative to understand how species are distributed spatially and temporally in and outside reserves, and what factors influence their occurrence. This study surveyed 7500 km(2) landscape surrounding five reserves in the Western Ghats to examine patterns of occurrence of five herbivores: elephant, gaur, sambar, chital, and pig. Species distributions are modeled spatio-temporally using an occupancy approach. Trained field teams conducted 3860 interview-based occupancy surveys in a 10-km buffer surrounding these five reserves in 2012. I found gaur and wild pig to be the least and most wide-ranging species, respectively. Elephant and chital exhibit seasonal differences in spatial distribution unlike the other three species. As predicted, distance to reserve, the reserve itself, and forest cover were associated with higher occupancy of all species, and higher densities of people negatively influenced occurrence of all species. Park management, species protection, and conflict mitigation efforts in this landscape need to incorporate temporal and spatial understanding of species distributions. All species are known crop raiders and conflict prone locations with resources (such as water and forage) have to be monitored and managed carefully. Wildlife reserves and adjacent areas are critical for long-term persistence and habitat use for all five herbivores and must be monitored to ensure wildlife can move freely. Such a large-scale approach to map and monitor species distributions can be adapted to other landscapes to identify and monitor critical habitats shared by people and wildlife.

Wildlife in the Matrix: Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Herbivore Occurrence in Karnataka, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karanth, Krithi K.

2016-01-01

Wildlife reserves are becoming increasingly isolated from the surrounding human-dominated landscapes particularly in Asia. It is imperative to understand how species are distributed spatially and temporally in and outside reserves, and what factors influence their occurrence. This study surveyed 7500 km2 landscape surrounding five reserves in the Western Ghats to examine patterns of occurrence of five herbivores: elephant, gaur, sambar, chital, and pig. Species distributions are modeled spatio-temporally using an occupancy approach. Trained field teams conducted 3860 interview-based occupancy surveys in a 10-km buffer surrounding these five reserves in 2012. I found gaur and wild pig to be the least and most wide-ranging species, respectively. Elephant and chital exhibit seasonal differences in spatial distribution unlike the other three species. As predicted, distance to reserve, the reserve itself, and forest cover were associated with higher occupancy of all species, and higher densities of people negatively influenced occurrence of all species. Park management, species protection, and conflict mitigation efforts in this landscape need to incorporate temporal and spatial understanding of species distributions. All species are known crop raiders and conflict prone locations with resources (such as water and forage) have to be monitored and managed carefully. Wildlife reserves and adjacent areas are critical for long-term persistence and habitat use for all five herbivores and must be monitored to ensure wildlife can move freely. Such a large-scale approach to map and monitor species distributions can be adapted to other landscapes to identify and monitor critical habitats shared by people and wildlife.

A Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Model to Investigate the Effect of Cattle Movements on the Spread of Bluetongue BTV-8 in Belgium

PubMed Central

Ensoy, Chellafe; Aerts, Marc; Welby, Sarah; Van der Stede, Yves; Faes, Christel

2013-01-01

When Bluetongue Virus Serotype 8 (BTV-8) was first detected in Northern Europe in 2006, several guidelines were immediately put into place with the goal to protect farms and stop the spreading of the disease. This however did not prevent further rapid spread of BTV-8 across Northern Europe. Using information on the 2006 Bluetongue outbreak in cattle farms in Belgium, a spatio-temporal transmission model was formulated. The model quantifies the local transmission of the disease between farms within a municipality, the short-distance transmission between farms across neighbouring municipalities and the transmission as a result of cattle movement. Different municipality-level covariates such as farm density, land composition variables, temperature and precipitation, were assessed as possibly influencing each component of the transmission process. Results showed a significant influence of the different covariates in each model component, particularly the significant effect of temperature and precipitation values in the number of infected farms. The model which allowed us to predict the dynamic spreading of BTV for different movement restriction scenarios, also affirmed the significant impact of cattle movement in the 2006 BTV outbreak pattern. Simulation results further showed the importance of considering the size of restriction zones in the formulation of guidelines for animal infectious diseases. PMID:24244324

A dynamic spatio-temporal model to investigate the effect of cattle movements on the spread of bluetongue BTV-8 in Belgium.

PubMed

Ensoy, Chellafe; Aerts, Marc; Welby, Sarah; Van der Stede, Yves; Faes, Christel

2013-01-01

When Bluetongue Virus Serotype 8 (BTV-8) was first detected in Northern Europe in 2006, several guidelines were immediately put into place with the goal to protect farms and stop the spreading of the disease. This however did not prevent further rapid spread of BTV-8 across Northern Europe. Using information on the 2006 Bluetongue outbreak in cattle farms in Belgium, a spatio-temporal transmission model was formulated. The model quantifies the local transmission of the disease between farms within a municipality, the short-distance transmission between farms across neighbouring municipalities and the transmission as a result of cattle movement. Different municipality-level covariates such as farm density, land composition variables, temperature and precipitation, were assessed as possibly influencing each component of the transmission process. Results showed a significant influence of the different covariates in each model component, particularly the significant effect of temperature and precipitation values in the number of infected farms. The model which allowed us to predict the dynamic spreading of BTV for different movement restriction scenarios, also affirmed the significant impact of cattle movement in the 2006 BTV outbreak pattern. Simulation results further showed the importance of considering the size of restriction zones in the formulation of guidelines for animal infectious diseases.

Baseline study of the spatio-temporal patterns of reef fish assemblages prior to a major mining project in New Caledonia (South Pacific).

PubMed

Chabanet, Pascale; Guillemot, Nicolas; Kulbicki, Michel; Vigliola, Laurent; Sarramegna, Sébastien

2010-01-01

From 2008 onwards, the coral reefs of Koné (New Caledonia) will be subjected to a major anthropogenic perturbation linked to development of a nickel mine. Dredging and sediment runoff may directly damage the reef environment whereas job creation should generate a large demographic increase and thus a rise in fishing activities. This study analyzed reef fish assemblages between 2002 and 2007 with a focus on spatio-temporal variability. Our results indicate strong spatial structure of fish assemblages through time. Total species richness, density and biomass were highly variable between years but temporal variations were consistent among biotopes. A remarkable spatio-temporal stability was observed for trophic (mean 4.6% piscivores, 53.1% carnivores, 30.8% herbivores and 11.4% planktivores) and home range structures of species abundance contributions. These results are discussed and compared with others sites of the South Pacific. For monitoring perspectives, some indicators related to expected disturbances are proposed. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Segregation of Brain Structural Networks Supports Spatio-Temporal Predictive Processing.

PubMed

Ciullo, Valentina; Vecchio, Daniela; Gili, Tommaso; Spalletta, Gianfranco; Piras, Federica

2018-01-01

The ability to generate probabilistic expectancies regarding when and where sensory stimuli will occur, is critical to derive timely and accurate inferences about updating contexts. However, the existence of specialized neural networks for inferring predictive relationships between events is still debated. Using graph theoretical analysis applied to structural connectivity data, we tested the extent of brain connectivity properties associated with spatio-temporal predictive performance across 29 healthy subjects. Participants detected visual targets appearing at one out of three locations after one out of three intervals; expectations about stimulus location (spatial condition) or onset (temporal condition) were induced by valid or invalid symbolic cues. Connectivity matrices and centrality/segregation measures, expressing the relative importance of, and the local interactions among specific cerebral areas respect to the behavior under investigation, were calculated from whole-brain tractography and cortico-subcortical parcellation. Results: Response preparedness to cued stimuli relied on different structural connectivity networks for the temporal and spatial domains. Significant covariance was observed between centrality measures of regions within a subcortical-fronto-parietal-occipital network -comprising the left putamen, the right caudate nucleus, the left frontal operculum, the right inferior parietal cortex, the right paracentral lobule and the right superior occipital cortex-, and the ability to respond after a short cue-target delay suggesting that the local connectedness of such nodes plays a central role when the source of temporal expectation is explicit. When the potential for functional segregation was tested, we found highly clustered structural connectivity across the right superior, the left middle inferior frontal gyrus and the left caudate nucleus as related to explicit temporal orienting. Conversely, when the interaction between explicit and

Evaluation of spatio-temporal variability in Land Surface Temperature: A case study of Zonguldak, Turkey.

PubMed

Sekertekin, Aliihsan; Kutoglu, Senol Hakan; Kaya, Sinasi

2016-01-01

The aim of this study is to analyze spatio-temporal variability in Land Surface Temperature (LST) in and around the city of Zonguldak as a result of the growing urbanization and industrialization during the last decade. Three Landsat 5 data and one Landsat 8 data acquired on different dates were exploited in acquiring LST maps utilizing mono-window algorithm. The outcomes obtained from this study indicate that there exists a significant temperature rise in the region for the time period between 1986 and 2015. Some cross sections were selected in order to examine the relationship between the land use and LST changes in more detail. The mean LST difference between 1986 and 2015 in ERDEMIR iron and steel plant (6.8 °C), forestland (3 °C), city and town centers (4.2 °C), municipal rubbish tip (-3.9 °C), coal dump site (12.2 °C), and power plants' region (7 °C) were presented. In addition, the results indicated that the mean LST difference between forestland and city centers was approximately 5 °C, and the difference between forestland and industrial enterprises was almost 8 °C for all years. Spatio-temporal variability in LST in Zonguldak was examined in that study and due to the increase in LST, policy makers and urban planners should consider LST and urban heat island parameters for sustainable development.

Spatio-temporal evolution of water-related ecosystem services: Taihu Basin, China.

PubMed

Chen, Junyu; Cui, Tao; Wang, Huimin; Liu, Gang; Gilfedder, Mat; Bai, Yang

2018-01-01

Water-related ecosystem services (WESs) arise from the interaction between water ecosystems and their surrounding terrestrial ecosystems. They are critical for human well-being as well as for the whole ecological circle. An urgent service-oriented reform for the utilization and supervision of WESs can assist in avoiding ecological risks and achieving a more sustainable development in the Taihu Basin, China (THB). Spatially distributed models allow the multiple impacts of land use/land cover conversion and climate variation on WESs to be estimated and visualized efficiently, and such models can form a useful component in the toolbox for integrated water ecosystem management. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs model is used here to evaluate and visualize the spatio-temporal evolution of WESs in the THB from 2000 to 2010. Results indicate that water retention service experienced a decline from 2000 to 2005 with a recovery after 2005, while there was ongoing water scarcity in urban areas. Both the water purification service and the soil retention service underwent a slight decrease over the study period. Nutrients export mainly came from developed land and cultivated land, with the hilly areas in the south of the THB forming the primary area for soil loss. The quantity and distribution of WESs were impacted significantly by the shrinkage of cultivated land and the expansion of developed land. These findings will lay a foundation for a service-oriented management of WESs in the THB and support evidence-based decision making.

Spatio-Temporal Progression of Cortical Activity Related to Continuous Overt and Covert Speech Production in a Reading Task.

PubMed

Brumberg, Jonathan S; Krusienski, Dean J; Chakrabarti, Shreya; Gunduz, Aysegul; Brunner, Peter; Ritaccio, Anthony L; Schalk, Gerwin

2016-01-01

How the human brain plans, executes, and monitors continuous and fluent speech has remained largely elusive. For example, previous research has defined the cortical locations most important for different aspects of speech function, but has not yet yielded a definition of the temporal progression of involvement of those locations as speech progresses either overtly or covertly. In this paper, we uncovered the spatio-temporal evolution of neuronal population-level activity related to continuous overt speech, and identified those locations that shared activity characteristics across overt and covert speech. Specifically, we asked subjects to repeat continuous sentences aloud or silently while we recorded electrical signals directly from the surface of the brain (electrocorticography (ECoG)). We then determined the relationship between cortical activity and speech output across different areas of cortex and at sub-second timescales. The results highlight a spatio-temporal progression of cortical involvement in the continuous speech process that initiates utterances in frontal-motor areas and ends with the monitoring of auditory feedback in superior temporal gyrus. Direct comparison of cortical activity related to overt versus covert conditions revealed a common network of brain regions involved in speech that may implement orthographic and phonological processing. Our results provide one of the first characterizations of the spatiotemporal electrophysiological representations of the continuous speech process, and also highlight the common neural substrate of overt and covert speech. These results thereby contribute to a refined understanding of speech functions in the human brain.

Spatio-Temporal Progression of Cortical Activity Related to Continuous Overt and Covert Speech Production in a Reading Task

PubMed Central

Brumberg, Jonathan S.; Krusienski, Dean J.; Chakrabarti, Shreya; Gunduz, Aysegul; Brunner, Peter; Ritaccio, Anthony L.; Schalk, Gerwin

2016-01-01

How the human brain plans, executes, and monitors continuous and fluent speech has remained largely elusive. For example, previous research has defined the cortical locations most important for different aspects of speech function, but has not yet yielded a definition of the temporal progression of involvement of those locations as speech progresses either overtly or covertly. In this paper, we uncovered the spatio-temporal evolution of neuronal population-level activity related to continuous overt speech, and identified those locations that shared activity characteristics across overt and covert speech. Specifically, we asked subjects to repeat continuous sentences aloud or silently while we recorded electrical signals directly from the surface of the brain (electrocorticography (ECoG)). We then determined the relationship between cortical activity and speech output across different areas of cortex and at sub-second timescales. The results highlight a spatio-temporal progression of cortical involvement in the continuous speech process that initiates utterances in frontal-motor areas and ends with the monitoring of auditory feedback in superior temporal gyrus. Direct comparison of cortical activity related to overt versus covert conditions revealed a common network of brain regions involved in speech that may implement orthographic and phonological processing. Our results provide one of the first characterizations of the spatiotemporal electrophysiological representations of the continuous speech process, and also highlight the common neural substrate of overt and covert speech. These results thereby contribute to a refined understanding of speech functions in the human brain. PMID:27875590

Epidemiology and spatio-temporal analysis of West Nile virus in horses in Spain between 2010 and 2016.

PubMed

García-Bocanegra, I; Belkhiria, J; Napp, S; Cano-Terriza, D; Jiménez-Ruiz, S; Martínez-López, B

2018-04-01

During the last decade, West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks have increased sharply in both horses and human in Europe. The aims of this study were to evaluate characteristics and spatio-temporal distribution of WNV outbreaks in horses in Spain between 2010 and 2016 in order to identify the environmental variables most associated with WNV occurrence and to generate high-resolution WNV suitability maps to inform risk-based surveillance strategies in this country. Between August 2010 and November 2016, a total of 403 WNV suspected cases were investigated, of which, 177 (43.9%) were laboratory confirmed. Mean values of morbidity, mortality and case fatality rates were 7.5%, 1.6% and 21.2%, respectively. The most common clinical symptoms were as follows: tiredness/apathy, recumbency, muscular tremor, ataxia, incoordination and hyperaesthesia. The outbreaks confirmed during the last 7 years, with detection of WNV RNA lineage 1 in 2010, 2012, 2013, 2015 and 2016, suggest an endemic circulation of the virus in Spain. The spatio-temporal distribution of WNV outbreaks in Spain was not homogeneous, as most of them (92.7%) were concentrated in western part of Andalusia (southern Spain) and significant clusters were detected in this region in two non-consecutive years. These findings were supported by the results of the space-time scan statistics permutation model. A presence-only MaxEnt ecological niche model was used to generate a suitability map for WNV occurrence in Andalusia. The most important predictors selected by the Ecological Niche Modeling were as follows: mean annual temperature (49.5% contribution), presence of Culex pipiens (19.5% contribution), mean annual precipitation (16.1% contribution) and distance to Ramsar wetlands (14.9% contribution). Our results constitute an important step for understanding WNV emergence and spread in Spain and will provide valuable information for the development of more cost-effective surveillance and control programmes and improve the

Imaging the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Supragranular Activity in the Rat Somatosensory Cortex in Response to Stimulation of the Paws

PubMed Central

Morales-Botello, M. L.; Aguilar, J.; Foffani, G.

2012-01-01

We employed voltage-sensitive dye (VSD) imaging to investigate the spatio-temporal dynamics of the responses of the supragranular somatosensory cortex to stimulation of the four paws in urethane-anesthetized rats. We obtained the following main results. (1) Stimulation of the contralateral forepaw evoked VSD responses with greater amplitude and smaller latency than stimulation of the contralateral hindpaw, and ipsilateral VSD responses had a lower amplitude and greater latency than contralateral responses. (2) While the contralateral stimulation initially activated only one focus, the ipsilateral stimulation initially activated two foci: one focus was typically medial to the focus activated by contralateral stimulation and was stereotaxically localized in the motor cortex; the other focus was typically posterior to the focus activated by contralateral stimulation and was stereotaxically localized in the somatosensory cortex. (3) Forepaw and hindpaw somatosensory stimuli activated large areas of the sensorimotor cortex, well beyond the forepaw and hindpaw somatosensory areas of classical somatotopic maps, and forepaw stimuli activated larger cortical areas with greater activation velocity than hindpaw stimuli. (4) Stimulation of the forepaw and hindpaw evoked different cortical activation dynamics: forepaw responses displayed a clear medial directionality, whereas hindpaw responses were much more uniform in all directions. In conclusion, this work offers a complete spatio-temporal map of the supragranular VSD cortical activation in response to stimulation of the paws, showing important somatotopic differences between contralateral and ipsilateral maps as well as differences in the spatio-temporal activation dynamics in response to forepaw and hindpaw stimuli. PMID:22829873

Gait functional assessment: Spatio-temporal analysis and classification of barefoot plantar pressure in a group of 11-12-year-old children.

PubMed

Latour, Ewa; Latour, Marek; Arlet, Jarosław; Adach, Zdzisław; Bohatyrewicz, Andrzej

2011-07-01

Analysis of pedobarographical data requires geometric identification of specific anatomical areas extracted from recorded plantar pressures. This approach has led to ambiguity in measurements that may underlie the inconsistency of conclusions reported in pedobarographical studies. The goal of this study was to design a new analysis method less susceptible to the projection accuracy of anthropometric points and distance estimation, based on rarely used spatio-temporal indices. Six pedobarographic records per person (three per foot) from a group of 60 children aged 11-12 years were obtained and analyzed. The basis of the analysis was a mutual relationship between two spatio-temporal indices created by excursion of the peak pressure point and the center-of-pressure point on the dynamic pedobarogram. Classification of weight-shift patterns was elaborated and performed, and their frequencies of occurrence were assessed. This new method allows an assessment of body weight shift through the plantar pressure surface based on distribution analysis of spatio-temporal indices not affected by the shape of this surface. Analysis of the distribution of the created index confirmed the existence of typical ways of weight shifting through the plantar surface of the foot during gait, as well as large variability of the intrasubject occurrence. This method may serve as the basis for interpretation of foot functional features and may extend the clinical usefulness of pedobarography. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2004 - Annual Report

EPA Science Inventory

This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O₃ and PM_2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2004 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O₃ ...